More on the Demand for Medical Education, with Special Attention to the Effects of Nonprice Rationing. Discussion Paper No. 79-23.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stapleton, David C.

A model in which nonprice rationing has two effects on the number of medical school applicants in the United States is specified and estimated for the 1951-76 period. The results indicate that low acceptance rates discourage many potential applicants and that a fairly large and constant percentage of rejected applicants can be expected to reapply.…

Maximization, learning, and economic behavior

PubMed Central

Erev, Ido; Roth, Alvin E.

2014-01-01

The rationality assumption that underlies mainstream economic theory has proved to be a useful approximation, despite the fact that systematic violations to its predictions can be found. That is, the assumption of rational behavior is useful in understanding the ways in which many successful economic institutions function, although it is also true that actual human behavior falls systematically short of perfect rationality. We consider a possible explanation of this apparent inconsistency, suggesting that mechanisms that rest on the rationality assumption are likely to be successful when they create an environment in which the behavior they try to facilitate leads to the best payoff for all agents on average, and most of the time. Review of basic learning research suggests that, under these conditions, people quickly learn to maximize expected return. This review also shows that there are many situations in which experience does not increase maximization. In many cases, experience leads people to underweight rare events. In addition, the current paper suggests that it is convenient to distinguish between two behavioral approaches to improve economic analyses. The first, and more conventional approach among behavioral economists and psychologists interested in judgment and decision making, highlights violations of the rational model and proposes descriptive models that capture these violations. The second approach studies human learning to clarify the conditions under which people quickly learn to maximize expected return. The current review highlights one set of conditions of this type and shows how the understanding of these conditions can facilitate market design. PMID:25024182

Maximization, learning, and economic behavior.

PubMed

Erev, Ido; Roth, Alvin E

2014-07-22

The rationality assumption that underlies mainstream economic theory has proved to be a useful approximation, despite the fact that systematic violations to its predictions can be found. That is, the assumption of rational behavior is useful in understanding the ways in which many successful economic institutions function, although it is also true that actual human behavior falls systematically short of perfect rationality. We consider a possible explanation of this apparent inconsistency, suggesting that mechanisms that rest on the rationality assumption are likely to be successful when they create an environment in which the behavior they try to facilitate leads to the best payoff for all agents on average, and most of the time. Review of basic learning research suggests that, under these conditions, people quickly learn to maximize expected return. This review also shows that there are many situations in which experience does not increase maximization. In many cases, experience leads people to underweight rare events. In addition, the current paper suggests that it is convenient to distinguish between two behavioral approaches to improve economic analyses. The first, and more conventional approach among behavioral economists and psychologists interested in judgment and decision making, highlights violations of the rational model and proposes descriptive models that capture these violations. The second approach studies human learning to clarify the conditions under which people quickly learn to maximize expected return. The current review highlights one set of conditions of this type and shows how the understanding of these conditions can facilitate market design.

Factors Involved in Juveniles' Decisions about Crime.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cimler, Edward; Beach, Lee Roy

1981-01-01

Investigated whether delinquency is the result of a rational decision. The Subjective Expected Utility (SEU) model from decision theory was used with male juvenile offenders (N=45) as the model of the decision process. Results showed that the SEU model predicted 62.7 percent of the subjects' decisions. (Author/RC)

Relevance of a Managerial Decision-Model to Educational Administration.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lundin, Edward.; Welty, Gordon

The rational model of classical economic theory assumes that the decision maker has complete information on alternatives and consequences, and that he chooses the alternative that maximizes expected utility. This model does not allow for constraints placed on the decision maker resulting from lack of information, organizational pressures,…

SURVIAC Bulletin. Issue 1

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-01

settings that cover the range of environmental conditions in which the rations are expected to function. These vitally important state-of-the- art ...rf ig h te ri N u tr it io n iM o d e lin g Warfighter Nutrition Modeling continued from page 1. (Health Affairs) and the Joint Culinary Center of...Food Pilot Plant for production and testing of food to facilitate state-of-the- art ration development. The Analytical Microbiology and Food

Adaptive and Rational Anticipations in Risk Management Systems and Economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubois, Daniel M.; Holmberg, Stig C.

2010-11-01

The global financial crisis of year 2009 is explained as a result of uncoordinated risk management decisions in business firms and economic organisations. The underlying reason for this can be found in the current financial system. As the financial market has lost much of its direct coupling to the concrete economy it provides misleading information to economic decision makers at all levels. Hence, the financial system has moved from a state of moderate and slow cyclical fluctuations into a state of fast and chaotic ones. Those misleading decisions can further be described, but not explained, by help of adaptive and rational expectations from macroeconomic theory. In this context, AE, the Adaptive Expectations are related to weak passive Exo-anticipation, and RE, the Rational expectations can be related to a strong, active and design oriented anticipation. The shortcomings of conventional cures, which builds on a reactive paradigm, have already been demonstrated in economic literature and are here further underlined by help of Ashby's "Law of Requisite Variety", Weaver's distinction between systems of "Disorganized Complexity" and those of "Organized Complexity", and Klir's "Reconstructability Analysis". Anticipatory decision-making is hence here proposed as a replacement to current expectation based and passive risk management. An anticipatory model of the business cycle is presented for supporting that proposition. The model, which is an extension of the Kaldor-Kalecki model, includes both retardation and anticipation. While cybernetics with the feedback process in control system deals with an explicit goal or purpose given to a system, the anticipatory system discussed here deals with a behaviour for which the future state of the system is built by the system itself, without explicit goal. A system with weak anticipation is based on a predictive model of the system, while a system with strong anticipation builds its own future by itself. Numerical simulations on computer confirm the feasibility of this approach. Hence, functional differential equations with both retardation and anticipation are found to be useful tools for modelling financial systems.

Implicit rationing criteria in non-small-cell lung cancer treatment.

PubMed Central

Arndt, K.; Coy, P.; Schaafsma, J.

1996-01-01

Data collected from lung cancer patients attending the Victoria Clinic of the British Columbia Cancer Agency are used to investigate how resources are rationed in the treatment of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). An ordered logit model is estimated to analyse empirically the relationship between treatment selection and: tumour stage, size and differentiation; the Feinstein index; Karnofsky performance status (KPS); and the patient's age, gender and marital and smoking status. Implicit rationing is found to occur with respect to all of these factors except the Feinstein index, gender and marital status. With respect to age, KPS and smoker status the main empirical results are: (a) an increase in age from 50 to 85 reduces the expected treatment expenditure by 50-70%, depending on the patient's KPS and smoker status; (b) patients with a KPS less than 80 and of 80, receive 30-46% and 75-85%, respectively, of the expected treatment expenditure for patients with a KPS of 90 or 100, depending on age and smoker status; (c) the expected treatment expenditure for active smokers is about 71-86% of the expenditure for non- or former smokers depending on age and KPS. PMID:8611380

Rational Rationing: Impossible or Inevitable?

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-04-01

AD-A276 769 1993 Executive Research Project S45 Rational Rationing : Impossible or Inevitable? Commander Albert Benjamin Long, III Medical Service...used until exhausted. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE All other editions are obsolete. UNCLASSIFIED Rational Rationing : Inevitable or Inpossible...dilemma requires that we--as individuals and as a Nation--consciously and rationally decide what we expect from our future health care delivery system and

Does knowing that a suicide was "rational" influence grief?

PubMed

Brazda, Geoffrey F; Range, Lillian M; Remley, Theodore P; White, Carolyn C

2018-03-15

Counseling professionals and graduate students (N = 117) recruited online read a randomly assigned one-paragraph vignette about either a non-rational or rational suicide involving an imaginary loved one. Then, they completed the Grief Experiences Questionnaire (GEQ) about how they would feel. The non-rational suicide group expected significantly more search for explanation than the rational suicide group, but were not significantly different on the other six GEQ subscales. All participants expected few distressing reactions to either vignette, suggesting a one-paragraph vignette may not be sufficient to induce the kind of grief many experience when a loved one dies by suicide.

A Social Information Processing Approach to Job Attitudes and Task Design

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salancik, Gerald R.; Pfeffer, Jeffrey

1978-01-01

In comparison with need-satisfaction and expectancy models of job attitudes and motivation, the social information processing perspective emphasizes the effects of context and the consequences of past choices, rather than individual predispositions and rational decision-making processes. (Author)

Macroeconomics after Two Decades of Rational Expectations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCallum, Bennett T.

1994-01-01

Discusses real business cycle analysis, growth theory, and other economic concepts in the context of the rational expectations revolution in macroeconomics. Focuses on post-1982 research. Concludes that the rejuvenation of growth analysis is an encouraging development because it could lead to changes in welfare policy. (CFR)

Advances in drying: Volume 4

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mujumdar, A.S.

1987-01-01

Topics covered in this volume include recent thoughts in modeling of drying phenomena, use of computers in rational design of drying particulates, recent advances in drying of wood, and heat/mass transfer phenomena in drying of solids. As the readers will no doubt notice, special effort is made to ensure the truly international nature of the contents of this serial publication. As existing knowledge on drying and dryers becomes more widely and readily accessible, it is expected that more and more dryers will be designed rationally rather than built solely with the benefit of empiricism.

Reliability and Validity of the Rational Behavior Inventory with a Clinical Population.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shorkey, Clayton T.; Sutton-Simon, Karen

1983-01-01

The Rational Behavior Inventory and other scales of psychological adjustment were administered to mental health outpatients (N=75) who were receiving psychotherapy. Significant correlations were found between all measures in expected directions, and significant pre- to postscale differences identified consistently with expected effects of…

Understanding Adolescent Contraceptive Choice: An Empirical Test.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adler, Nancy E.; And Others

Research using expectancy models has shown contraceptive choice among adults to be a rational process in that intentions and behaviors reflect an individual's beliefs, values, attitudes, and perceptions of social norms. This study examined whether such an approach could accurately represent adolescents' contraceptive decision-making. It used the…

Cultivating Teachers' Morality and the Pedagogy of Emotional Rationality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Minkang

2013-01-01

Teachers are expected to act ethically and provide moral role models in performing their duties, even though teacher education has often relegated the cultivation of teachers' ethical awareness and moral development to the margins. When it is addressed, the main theoretical assumptions have relied heavily on the cognitivist developmental theories…

The Application of Motivational Theories to Business and Industry.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clements, Paul; Farrar, Lochia A.

This workshop, designed to use motivational theories in understanding work behaviors and to increase job satisfaction and performance, deals with cognitive theories in motivation, need theories, and the Equity Theory within the Expectancy Valence Model. Counseling technique areas of communication skills and rational thinking that facilitate the…

Exchange Rates and Fundamentals.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Engel, Charles; West, Kenneth D.

2005-01-01

We show analytically that in a rational expectations present-value model, an asset price manifests near-random walk behavior if fundamentals are I (1) and the factor for discounting future fundamentals is near one. We argue that this result helps explain the well-known puzzle that fundamental variables such as relative money supplies, outputs,…

Starlings uphold principles of economic rationality for delay and probability of reward.

PubMed

Monteiro, Tiago; Vasconcelos, Marco; Kacelnik, Alex

2013-04-07

Rationality principles are the bedrock of normative theories of decision-making in biology and microeconomics, but whereas in microeconomics, consistent choice underlies the notion of utility; in biology, the assumption of consistent selective pressures justifies modelling decision mechanisms as if they were designed to maximize fitness. In either case, violations of consistency contradict expectations and attract theoretical interest. Reported violations of rationality in non-humans include intransitivity (i.e. circular preferences) and lack of independence of irrelevant alternatives (changes in relative preference between options when embedded in different choice sets), but the extent to which these observations truly represent breaches of rationality is debatable. We tested both principles with starlings (Sturnus vulgaris), training subjects either with five options differing in food delay (exp. 1) or with six options differing in reward probability (exp. 2), before letting them choose repeatedly one option out of several binary and trinary sets of options. The starlings conformed to economic rationality on both tests, showing strong stochastic transitivity and no violation of the independence principle. These results endorse the rational choice and optimality approaches used in behavioural ecology, and highlight the need for functional and mechanistic enquiring when apparent violations of such principles are observed.

Starlings uphold principles of economic rationality for delay and probability of reward

PubMed Central

Monteiro, Tiago; Vasconcelos, Marco; Kacelnik, Alex

2013-01-01

Rationality principles are the bedrock of normative theories of decision-making in biology and microeconomics, but whereas in microeconomics, consistent choice underlies the notion of utility; in biology, the assumption of consistent selective pressures justifies modelling decision mechanisms as if they were designed to maximize fitness. In either case, violations of consistency contradict expectations and attract theoretical interest. Reported violations of rationality in non-humans include intransitivity (i.e. circular preferences) and lack of independence of irrelevant alternatives (changes in relative preference between options when embedded in different choice sets), but the extent to which these observations truly represent breaches of rationality is debatable. We tested both principles with starlings (Sturnus vulgaris), training subjects either with five options differing in food delay (exp. 1) or with six options differing in reward probability (exp. 2), before letting them choose repeatedly one option out of several binary and trinary sets of options. The starlings conformed to economic rationality on both tests, showing strong stochastic transitivity and no violation of the independence principle. These results endorse the rational choice and optimality approaches used in behavioural ecology, and highlight the need for functional and mechanistic enquiring when apparent violations of such principles are observed. PMID:23390098

Effect of Four Aspects of Rational Statements on Expected Satisfaction with a Close Relationship

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cramer, Duncan

2005-01-01

This study tested whether each of the four main aspects of rational thinking decreased expected relationship dissatisfaction when imagining having a serious disagreement with either a romantic partner or closest friend. The four features, common to cognitive theories of therapy, were the tendency not to exaggerate negative effects, not to demand…

Do Students Use Contextual Protective Behaviors to Reduce Alcohol-Related Sexual Risk? Examination of a Dual-Process Decision-Making Model

PubMed Central

Scaglione, Nichole M.; Hultgren, Brittney A.; Reavy, Racheal; Mallett, Kimberly A.; Turrisi, Rob; Cleveland, Michael J.; Sell, Nichole M.

2015-01-01

Objective Recent studies suggest drinking protective behaviors (DPBs) and contextual protective behaviors (CPBs) can uniquely reduce alcohol-related sexual risk in college students. Few studies have examined CPBs independently, and even fewer have utilized theory to examine modifiable psychosocial predictors of students’ decisions to use CPBs. The current study used a prospective design to examine 1) rational and reactive pathways and psychosocial constructs predictive of CPB use, and 2) how gender might moderate these influences in a sample of college students. Method Students (n = 508) completed web-based baseline (mid-spring semester) and 1- and 6-month follow-up assessments of CPB use; psychosocial constructs (expectancies, normative beliefs, attitudes, and self-concept); and rational and reactive pathways (intentions and willingness). Regression was used to examine rational and reactive influences as proximal predictors of CPB use at the 6-month follow-up. Subsequent path analyses examined the effects of psychosocial constructs, as distal predictors of CPB use, mediated through the rational and reactive pathways. Results Both rational (intentions to use CPB) and reactive (willingness to use CPB) influences were significantly associated with increased CPB use. The examined distal predictors were found to effect CPB use differentially through the rational and reactive pathways. Gender did not significantly moderate any relationships within in the model. Discussion Findings suggest potential entry points for increasing CPB use that include both rational and reactive pathways. Overall, this study demonstrates the mechanisms underlying how to increase the use of CPBs in programs designed to reduce alcohol-related sexual consequences and victimization. PMID:26415062

Do students use contextual protective behaviors to reduce alcohol-related sexual risk? Examination of a dual-process decision-making model.

PubMed

Scaglione, Nichole M; Hultgren, Brittney A; Reavy, Racheal; Mallett, Kimberly A; Turrisi, Rob; Cleveland, Michael J; Sell, Nichole M

2015-09-01

Recent studies suggest drinking protective behaviors (DPBs) and contextual protective behaviors (CPBs) can uniquely reduce alcohol-related sexual risk in college students. Few studies have examined CPBs independently, and even fewer have utilized theory to examine modifiable psychosocial predictors of students' decisions to use CPBs. The current study used a prospective design to examine (a) rational and reactive pathways and psychosocial constructs predictive of CPB use and (b) how gender might moderate these influences in a sample of college students. Students (n = 508) completed Web-based baseline (mid-Spring semester) and 1- and 6-month follow-up assessments of CPB use; psychosocial constructs (expectancies, normative beliefs, attitudes, and self-concept); and rational and reactive pathways (intentions and willingness). Regression was used to examine rational and reactive influences as proximal predictors of CPB use at the 6-month follow-up. Subsequent path analyses examined the effects of psychosocial constructs, as distal predictors of CPB use, mediated through the rational and reactive pathways. Both rational (intentions to use CPB) and reactive (willingness to use CPB) influences were significantly associated with increased CPB use. The examined distal predictors were found to effect CPB use differentially through the rational and reactive pathways. Gender did not significantly moderate any relationships within in the model. Findings suggest potential entry points for increasing CPB use that include both rational and reactive pathways. Overall, this study demonstrates the mechanisms underlying how to increase the use of CPBs in programs designed to reduce alcohol-related sexual consequences and victimization. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Rational Inference of Beliefs and Desires From Emotional Expressions.

PubMed

Wu, Yang; Baker, Chris L; Tenenbaum, Joshua B; Schulz, Laura E

2018-04-01

We investigated people's ability to infer others' mental states from their emotional reactions, manipulating whether agents wanted, expected, and caused an outcome. Participants recovered agents' desires throughout. When the agent observed, but did not cause the outcome, participants' ability to recover the agent's beliefs depended on the evidence they got (i.e., her reaction only to the actual outcome or to both the expected and actual outcomes; Experiments 1 and 2). When the agent caused the event, participants' judgments also depended on the probability of the action (Experiments 3 and 4); when actions were improbable given the mental states, people failed to recover the agent's beliefs even when they saw her react to both the anticipated and actual outcomes. A Bayesian model captured human performance throughout (rs ≥ .95), consistent with the proposal that people rationally integrate information about others' actions and emotional reactions to infer their unobservable mental states. Copyright © 2017 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Cooperation, psychological game theory, and limitations of rationality in social interaction.

PubMed

Colman, Andrew M

2003-04-01

Rational choice theory enjoys unprecedented popularity and influence in the behavioral and social sciences, but it generates intractable problems when applied to socially interactive decisions. In individual decisions, instrumental rationality is defined in terms of expected utility maximization. This becomes problematic in interactive decisions, when individuals have only partial control over the outcomes, because expected utility maximization is undefined in the absence of assumptions about how the other participants will behave. Game theory therefore incorporates not only rationality but also common knowledge assumptions, enabling players to anticipate their co-players' strategies. Under these assumptions, disparate anomalies emerge. Instrumental rationality, conventionally interpreted, fails to explain intuitively obvious features of human interaction, yields predictions starkly at variance with experimental findings, and breaks down completely in certain cases. In particular, focal point selection in pure coordination games is inexplicable, though it is easily achieved in practice; the intuitively compelling payoff-dominance principle lacks rational justification; rationality in social dilemmas is self-defeating; a key solution concept for cooperative coalition games is frequently inapplicable; and rational choice in certain sequential games generates contradictions. In experiments, human players behave more cooperatively and receive higher payoffs than strict rationality would permit. Orthodox conceptions of rationality are evidently internally deficient and inadequate for explaining human interaction. Psychological game theory, based on nonstandard assumptions, is required to solve these problems, and some suggestions along these lines have already been put forward.

Aligning Resources with Expectations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tran, Samantha

2006-01-01

In this article, the author discusses that the ability to clearly link resources, activities and goals in a rational and logical manner is a model that many educators and school leaders would welcome. She also states that in the 1990s, when the state moved in the direction of standards and accountability, part of the thinking was that public…

Decisions Under Uncertainty III: Rationality Issues, Sex Stereotypes, and Sex Role Appropriateness.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonoma, Thomas V.

The explanatory cornerstone of most currently viable social theories is a strict cost-gain assumption. The clearest formal explication of this view is contained in subjective expected utility models (SEU), in which individuals are assumed to scale their subjective likelihood estimates of decisional consequences and the personalistic worth or…

State-dependent decisions cause apparent violations of rationality in animal choice.

PubMed

Schuck-Paim, Cynthia; Pompilio, Lorena; Kacelnik, Alex

2004-12-01

Normative models of choice in economics and biology usually expect preferences to be consistent across contexts, or "rational" in economic language. Following a large body of literature reporting economically irrational behaviour in humans, breaches of rationality by animals have also been recently described. If proven systematic, these findings would challenge long-standing biological approaches to behavioural theorising, and suggest that cognitive processes similar to those claimed to cause irrationality in humans can also hinder optimality approaches to modelling animal preferences. Critical differences between human and animal experiments have not, however, been sufficiently acknowledged. While humans can be instructed conceptually about the choice problem, animals need to be trained by repeated exposure to all contingencies. This exposure often leads to differences in state between treatments, hence changing choices while preserving rationality. We report experiments with European starlings demonstrating that apparent breaches of rationality can result from state-dependence. We show that adding an inferior alternative to a choice set (a "decoy") affects choices, an effect previously interpreted as indicating irrationality. However, these effects appear and disappear depending on whether state differences between choice contexts are present or not. These results open the possibility that some expressions of maladaptive behaviour are due to oversights in the migration of ideas between economics and biology, and suggest that key differences between human and nonhuman research must be recognised if ideas are to safely travel between these fields.

Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-05-29

decision under risk is the deriva- .- tion of the expected utility rule from simple principles of rational choice that make no . reference to long-run...corrective power of incentives depends on the nature of the particular error and cannot be taken for granted. The assumption of rationality of decision making ...easily eliminated by experience must be demonstrated. Finally, it is sometimes argued that failures of rationality in individual decision making are

Rational decision perspectives on alcohol consumption by youth. Revising the theory of planned behavior.

PubMed

Kuther, Tara L

2002-01-01

Cognitive and developmental approaches have made great strides in describing and predicting alcohol consumption by youth. The present review examines several theories of decision making with regard to alcohol consumption, including subjective expected utility (SEU) theory, the theories of reasoned action and planned behavior, and alcohol-related outcome expectancy theory. In addition, the developmental literature on the contribution of parents and peers to adolescent alcohol consumption is reviewed. A model is proposed, which integrates the theory of planned behavior and alcohol-related outcome expectancy theory with modifications based on findings from the developmental literature. Implications for further research are discussed.

Attitudinal and Normative Predictors of Alcohol Use by Older Adolescents and Young Adults.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kuther, Tara L.; Higgins-D'Alessandro, Ann

2003-01-01

Examines a model of alcohol use based on the theory of planned behavior, and expectancy theory on the influence of parents and peers with older adolescents and young adults. Results suggest that, during adolescence, decisions to consume alcohol are rational, based on the consideration of the positive consequences of alcohol use; however, the…

Deep Rationality: The Evolutionary Economics of Decision Making.

PubMed

Kenrick, Douglas T; Griskevicius, Vladas; Sundie, Jill M; Li, Norman P; Li, Yexin Jessica; Neuberg, Steven L

2009-10-01

What is a "rational" decision? Economists traditionally viewed rationality as maximizing expected satisfaction. This view has been useful in modeling basic microeconomic concepts, but falls short in accounting for many everyday human decisions. It leaves unanswered why some things reliably make people more satisfied than others, and why people frequently act to make others happy at a cost to themselves. Drawing on an evolutionary perspective, we propose that people make decisions according to a set of principles that may not appear to make sense at the superficial level, but that demonstrate rationality at a deeper evolutionary level. By this, we mean that people use adaptive domain-specific decision-rules that, on average, would have resulted in fitness benefits. Using this framework, we re-examine several economic principles. We suggest that traditional psychological functions governing risk aversion, discounting of future benefits, and budget allocations to multiple goods, for example, vary in predictable ways as a function of the underlying motive of the decision-maker and individual differences linked to evolved life-history strategies. A deep rationality framework not only helps explain why people make the decisions they do, but also inspires multiple directions for future research.

When Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence: Rational Inferences From Absent Data.

PubMed

Hsu, Anne S; Horng, Andy; Griffiths, Thomas L; Chater, Nick

2017-05-01

Identifying patterns in the world requires noticing not only unusual occurrences, but also unusual absences. We examined how people learn from absences, manipulating the extent to which an absence is expected. People can make two types of inferences from the absence of an event: either the event is possible but has not yet occurred, or the event never occurs. A rational analysis using Bayesian inference predicts that inferences from absent data should depend on how much the absence is expected to occur, with less probable absences being more salient. We tested this prediction in two experiments in which we elicited people's judgments about patterns in the data as a function of absence salience. We found that people were able to decide that absences either were mere coincidences or were indicative of a significant pattern in the data in a manner that was consistent with predictions of a simple Bayesian model. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Effects of stress and coping on binge eating in female college students.

PubMed

Sulkowski, Michael L; Dempsey, Jack; Dempsey, Allison G

2011-08-01

Limited research exists on the association between stress, coping, and binge eating. To address this paucity, this study explores these associations in a sample of 147 female college students, an at-risk population for binge eating. We hypothesized that emotional and avoidant coping would be positively associated with stress and binge eating. Conversely, we expected that rational and detached coping would be negatively related to stress and binge eating. Furthermore, we expected these coping styles to mediate the relationship between stress and binge eating. As predicted, emotion-focused and avoidant coping were positively associated with stress and binge eating. Additionally, emotion-focused coping partially mediated the relationship between stress and binge eating. However, no association was found between stress, rational or detached coping, and binge eating. These results are discussed within the context of a negative reinforcement model of binge eating. Lastly, the importance of providing evidence-based treatment for individuals with binge eating symptomology is discussed in light of our findings. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Behavioral Modeling of Adversaries with Multiple Objectives in Counterterrorism.

PubMed

Mazicioglu, Dogucan; Merrick, Jason R W

2018-05-01

Attacker/defender models have primarily assumed that each decisionmaker optimizes the cost of the damage inflicted and its economic repercussions from their own perspective. Two streams of recent research have sought to extend such models. One stream suggests that it is more realistic to consider attackers with multiple objectives, but this research has not included the adaption of the terrorist with multiple objectives to defender actions. The other stream builds off experimental studies that show that decisionmakers deviate from optimal rational behavior. In this article, we extend attacker/defender models to incorporate multiple objectives that a terrorist might consider in planning an attack. This includes the tradeoffs that a terrorist might consider and their adaption to defender actions. However, we must also consider experimental evidence of deviations from the rationality assumed in the commonly used expected utility model in determining such adaption. Thus, we model the attacker's behavior using multiattribute prospect theory to account for the attacker's multiple objectives and deviations from rationality. We evaluate our approach by considering an attacker with multiple objectives who wishes to smuggle radioactive material into the United States and a defender who has the option to implement a screening process to hinder the attacker. We discuss the problems with implementing such an approach, but argue that research in this area must continue to avoid misrepresenting terrorist behavior in determining optimal defensive actions. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Nonlinear Super-Exponential Rational Model of Speculative Financial Bubbles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sornette, D.; Andersen, J. V.

Keeping a basic tenet of economic theory, rational expectations, we model the nonlinear positive feedback between agents in the stock market as an interplay between nonlinearity and multiplicative noise. The derived hyperbolic stochastic finite-time singularity formula transforms a Gaussian white noise into a rich time series possessing all the stylized facts of empirical prices, as well as accelerated speculative bubbles preceding crashes. We use the formula to invert the two years of price history prior to the recent crash on the Nasdaq (April 2000) and prior to the crash in the Hong Kong market associated with the Asian crisis in early 1994. These complex price dynamics are captured using only one exponent controlling the explosion, the variance and mean of the underlying random walk. This offers a new and powerful detection tool of speculative bubbles and herding behavior.

``From Fundamental Motives to Rational Expectation Equilibrium[REE, henceworth] of Indeterminacy''

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maksoed, Ssi, Wh-

For ``Principle of Indeterminacy''from Heisenberg states: ``one of the fundamental cornerstone of quantum mechanics is the Heisenberg uncertainty principle''.whereas canonically conjugate quantities can be determined simultaneously only with a characteristic indeterminacy[M. Arevalo Aguilar, et.al]. Accompanying Alfred North Whitehead conclusion in ``The Aims of Education''that mathematical symbols are artificial before new meanings given, two kinds of fundamental motives: (i) expectation-expectation, (ii) expectation-certainty inherently occurs with determinacy properties of rational expectation equilibrium(REE, henceworth)- Guido Ascari & Tizano Ropele:''Trend inflation, Taylor principle & Indeterminacy'', Kiel Institute, June 2007. Furthers, relative price expression can be compare of their α and (1 - α) configurations in the expression of possible activity. Acknowledgment to Prof[asc]. Dr. Bobby Eka Gunara for ``made a rank through physics'' denotes...

Inaugurating Rationalization: Three Field Studies Find Increased Rationalization When Anticipated Realities Become Current.

PubMed

Laurin, Kristin

2018-04-01

People will often rationalize the status quo, reconstruing it in an exaggeratedly positive light. They will even rationalize the status quo they anticipate, emphasizing the upsides and minimizing the downsides of sociopolitical realities they expect to take effect. Drawing on recent findings on the psychological triggers of rationalization, I present results from three field studies, one of which was preregistered, testing the hypothesis that an anticipated reality becoming current triggers an observable boost in people's rationalizations. San Franciscans rationalized a ban on plastic water bottles, Ontarians rationalized a targeted smoking ban, and Americans rationalized the presidency of Donald Trump, more in the days immediately after these realities became current compared with the days immediately before. Additional findings show evidence for a mechanism underlying these behaviors and rule out alternative accounts. These findings carry implications for scholarship on rationalization, for understanding protest behavior, and for policymakers.

Preference for oddity: uniqueness heuristic or hierarchical choice process?

PubMed

Waite, Thomas A

2008-10-01

Traditional economic theories assume decision makers in multialternative choice tasks "assign" a value to each option and then express rational preferences. Here, I report an apparent violation of such rationality in gray jays (Perisoreus canadensis). I tested the jays' preference in a quaternary choice task where three options were the same color and the fourth option was a different color. All options offered an identical food reward and so the strictly rational expectation was that subjects would choose the odd-colored option in 25% of choices. In clear disagreement, every subject chose the odd option more frequently than expected. I speculate as to how this surprising preference for oddity might have been ecologically rational: by using a unique-choice heuristic, the jays might have been able to bypass a deliberative phase of the decision process and devote more attention to scanning for predators. Alternatively, it is conceivable that the jays did not prefer oddity per se. Instead, they might have used a hierarchical process, assigning options to color categories and then choosing between categories. If so, their behavior matches expectation after all (on average, subjects chose the odd option 50% of the time). It should be straightforward to test these competing hypotheses. The current results can be viewed as a new example of how simple mechanisms sometimes produce economically puzzling yet ecologically rational decision making.

Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

PubMed

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

2017-10-01

Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Value and role of intensive care unit outcome prediction models in end-of-life decision making.

PubMed

Barnato, Amber E; Angus, Derek C

2004-07-01

In the United States, intensive care unit (ICU) admission at the end of life is commonplace. What is the value and role of ICU mortality prediction models for informing the utility of ICU care?In this article, we review the history, statistical underpinnings,and current deployment of these models in clinical care. We conclude that the use of outcome prediction models to ration care that is unlikely to provide an expected benefit is hampered by imperfect performance, the lack of real-time availability, failure to consider functional outcomes beyond survival, and physician resistance to the use of probabilistic information when death is guaranteed by the decision it informs. Among these barriers, the most important technical deficiency is the lack of automated information systems to provide outcome predictions to decision makers, and the most important research and policy agenda is to understand and address our national ambivalence toward rationing care based on any criterion.

Rich analysis and rational models: Inferring individual behavior from infant looking data

PubMed Central

Piantadosi, Steven T.; Kidd, Celeste; Aslin, Richard

2013-01-01

Studies of infant looking times over the past 50 years have provided profound insights about cognitive development, but their dependent measures and analytic techniques are quite limited. In the context of infants' attention to discrete sequential events, we show how a Bayesian data analysis approach can be combined with a rational cognitive model to create a rich data analysis framework for infant looking times. We formalize (i) a statistical learning model (ii) a parametric linking between the learning model's beliefs and infants' looking behavior, and (iii) a data analysis model that infers parameters of the cognitive model and linking function for groups and individuals. Using this approach, we show that recent findings from Kidd, Piantadosi, and Aslin (2012) of a U-shaped relationship between look-away probability and stimulus complexity even holds within infants and is not due to averaging subjects with different types of behavior. Our results indicate that individual infants prefer stimuli of intermediate complexity, reserving attention for events that are moderately predictable given their probabilistic expectations about the world. PMID:24750256

Rich analysis and rational models: inferring individual behavior from infant looking data.

PubMed

Piantadosi, Steven T; Kidd, Celeste; Aslin, Richard

2014-05-01

Studies of infant looking times over the past 50 years have provided profound insights about cognitive development, but their dependent measures and analytic techniques are quite limited. In the context of infants' attention to discrete sequential events, we show how a Bayesian data analysis approach can be combined with a rational cognitive model to create a rich data analysis framework for infant looking times. We formalize (i) a statistical learning model, (ii) a parametric linking between the learning model's beliefs and infants' looking behavior, and (iii) a data analysis approach and model that infers parameters of the cognitive model and linking function for groups and individuals. Using this approach, we show that recent findings from Kidd, Piantadosi and Aslin (iv) of a U-shaped relationship between look-away probability and stimulus complexity even holds within infants and is not due to averaging subjects with different types of behavior. Our results indicate that individual infants prefer stimuli of intermediate complexity, reserving attention for events that are moderately predictable given their probabilistic expectations about the world. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Calibration of infiltration parameters on hydrological tank model using runoff coefficient of rational method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suryoputro, Nugroho; Suhardjono, Soetopo, Widandi; Suhartanto, Ery

2017-09-01

In calibrating hydrological models, there are generally two stages of activity: 1) determining realistic model initial parameters in representing natural component physical processes, 2) entering initial parameter values which are then processed by trial error or automatically to obtain optimal values. To determine a realistic initial value, it takes experience and user knowledge of the model. This is a problem for beginner model users. This paper will present another approach to estimate the infiltration parameters in the tank model. The parameters will be approximated by the runoff coefficient of rational method. The value approach of infiltration parameter is simply described as the result of the difference in the percentage of total rainfall minus the percentage of runoff. It is expected that the results of this research will accelerate the calibration process of tank model parameters. The research was conducted on the sub-watershed Kali Bango in Malang Regency with an area of 239,71 km2. Infiltration measurements were carried out in January 2017 to March 2017. Analysis of soil samples at Soil Physics Laboratory, Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Brawijaya. Rainfall and discharge data were obtained from UPT PSAWS Bango Gedangan in Malang. Temperature, evaporation, relative humidity, wind speed data was obtained from BMKG station of Karang Ploso, Malang. The results showed that the infiltration coefficient at the top tank outlet can be determined its initial value by using the approach of the coefficient of runoff rational method with good result.

Micro-foundation using percolation theory of the finite time singular behavior of the crash hazard rate in a class of rational expectation bubbles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyrich, Maximilian; Sornette, Didier

2016-04-01

We present a plausible micro-founded model for the previously postulated power law finite time singular form of the crash hazard rate in the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model of rational expectation bubbles. The model is based on a percolation picture of the network of traders and the concept that clusters of connected traders share the same opinion. The key ingredient is the notion that a shift of position from buyer to seller of a sufficiently large group of traders can trigger a crash. This provides a formula to estimate the crash hazard rate by summation over percolation clusters above a minimum size of a power sa (with a>1) of the cluster sizes s, similarly to a generalized percolation susceptibility. The power sa of cluster sizes emerges from the super-linear dependence of group activity as a function of group size, previously documented in the literature. The crash hazard rate exhibits explosive finite time singular behaviors when the control parameter (fraction of occupied sites, or density of traders in the network) approaches the percolation threshold pc. Realistic dynamics are generated by modeling the density of traders on the percolation network by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, whose memory controls the spontaneous excursion of the control parameter close to the critical region of bubble formation. Our numerical simulations recover the main stylized properties of the JLS model with intermittent explosive super-exponential bubbles interrupted by crashes.

A response-time approach to comparing generalized rational and take-the-best models of decision making.

PubMed

Bergert, F Bryan; Nosofsky, Robert M

2007-01-01

The authors develop and test generalized versions of take-the-best (TTB) and rational (RAT) models of multiattribute paired-comparison inference. The generalized models make allowances for subjective attribute weighting, probabilistic orders of attribute inspection, and noisy decision making. A key new test involves a response-time (RT) approach. TTB predicts that RT is determined solely by the expected time required to locate the 1st discriminating attribute, whereas RAT predicts that RT is determined by the difference in summed evidence between the 2 alternatives. Critical test pairs are used that partially decouple these 2 factors. Under conditions in which ideal observer TTB and RAT strategies yield equivalent decisions, both the RT results and the estimated attribute weights suggest that the vast majority of subjects adopted the generalized TTB strategy. The RT approach is also validated in an experimental condition in which use of a RAT strategy is essentially forced upon subjects. (c) 2007 APA, all rights reserved.

Rational expectations, psychology and inductive learning via moving thresholds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamba, H.; Seaman, T.

2008-06-01

This paper modifies a previously introduced class of heterogeneous agent models in a way that allows for the inclusion of different types of agent motivations and behaviours in a consistent manner. The agents operate within a highly simplified environment where they are only able to be long or short one unit of the asset. The price of the asset is influenced by both an external information stream and the demand of the agents. The current strategy of each agent is defined by a pair of moving thresholds straddling the current price. When the price crosses either of the thresholds for a particular agent, that agent switches position and a new pair of thresholds is generated. The threshold dynamics can mimic different sources of investor motivation, running the gamut from purely rational information-processing, through rational (but often undesirable) behaviour induced by perverse incentives and moral hazards, to purely psychological effects. The simplest model of this kind precisely conforms to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and this allows causal relationships to be established between actions at the agent level and violations of EMH price statistics at the global level. In particular, the effects of herding behaviour and perverse incentives are examined.

Ada (Trade name) Compiler Validation Summary Report: Rational. Rational Environment (Trademark) A952. Rational Architecture (R1000 (Trade name) Model 200).

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-05-06

Rational . Rational Environment A_9_5_2. Rational Arthitecture (R1000 Model 200) 6. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT...validation testing performed on the Rational Environment , A_9_5_2, using Version 1.8 of the Ada0 Compiler Validation Capability (ACVC). The Rational ... Environment is hosted on a Rational Architecture (R1000 Model 200) operating under Rational Environment , Release A 95 2. Programs processed by this

From Wald to Savage: homo economicus becomes a Bayesian statistician.

PubMed

Giocoli, Nicola

2013-01-01

Bayesian rationality is the paradigm of rational behavior in neoclassical economics. An economic agent is deemed rational when she maximizes her subjective expected utility and consistently revises her beliefs according to Bayes's rule. The paper raises the question of how, when and why this characterization of rationality came to be endorsed by mainstream economists. Though no definitive answer is provided, it is argued that the question is of great historiographic importance. The story begins with Abraham Wald's behaviorist approach to statistics and culminates with Leonard J. Savage's elaboration of subjective expected utility theory in his 1954 classic The Foundations of Statistics. The latter's acknowledged fiasco to achieve a reinterpretation of traditional inference techniques along subjectivist and behaviorist lines raises the puzzle of how a failed project in statistics could turn into such a big success in economics. Possible answers call into play the emphasis on consistency requirements in neoclassical theory and the impact of the postwar transformation of U.S. business schools. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Rationing in the emergency department: the good, the bad, and the unacceptable.

PubMed

Cross, E; Goodacre, S; O'Cathain, A; Arnold, J

2005-03-01

Waiting times in emergency departments (EDs) are an important government priority. Although substantial efforts are currently being made to reduce waiting times, little attention has been paid to the patients' view. We used qualitative methods to explore patients' perspectives on waiting times and other approaches to rationing and prioritisation. Face to face, in depth, qualitative interviews (n = 11) explored how patients valued waiting times for non-urgent ED care. The framework approach (identifying a thematic framework through repeated re-reading) was used to analyse transcripts. Interviewees found some forms of rationing and prioritisation acceptable. They expected rationing by delay, but required explanations or information on the reason for their wait. They valued prioritisation by triage (rationing by selection) and thought that this role could be expanded for the re-direction of non-urgent patients elsewhere (rationing by deflection). Interviewees were mainly unwilling or unable to engage in prioritisation of different types of patients, openly prioritising only those with obvious clinical need, and children. However, some interviewees were willing to ration implicitly, labelling some attenders as inappropriate, such as those causing a nuisance. Others felt it was unacceptable to blame "inappropriate" attenders, as their attendance may relate to lack of information or awareness of service use. Explicit rationing between services was not acceptable, although some believed there were more important priorities for NHS resources than ED waiting times. Interviewees disagreed with the hypothetical notion of paying to be seen more quickly in the ED (rationing by charging). Interviewees expected to wait and accepted the need for prioritisation, although they were reluctant to engage in judgements regarding prioritisation. They supported the re-direction of patients with certain non-urgent complaints. However, they perceived a need for more explanation and information about their wait, the system, and alternative services.

A Reward-Maximizing Spiking Neuron as a Bounded Rational Decision Maker.

PubMed

Leibfried, Felix; Braun, Daniel A

2015-08-01

Rate distortion theory describes how to communicate relevant information most efficiently over a channel with limited capacity. One of the many applications of rate distortion theory is bounded rational decision making, where decision makers are modeled as information channels that transform sensory input into motor output under the constraint that their channel capacity is limited. Such a bounded rational decision maker can be thought to optimize an objective function that trades off the decision maker's utility or cumulative reward against the information processing cost measured by the mutual information between sensory input and motor output. In this study, we interpret a spiking neuron as a bounded rational decision maker that aims to maximize its expected reward under the computational constraint that the mutual information between the neuron's input and output is upper bounded. This abstract computational constraint translates into a penalization of the deviation between the neuron's instantaneous and average firing behavior. We derive a synaptic weight update rule for such a rate distortion optimizing neuron and show in simulations that the neuron efficiently extracts reward-relevant information from the input by trading off its synaptic strengths against the collected reward.

Rationality, practice variation and person‐centred health policy: a threshold hypothesis

PubMed Central

Hamm, Robert M.; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Hozo, Iztok; Van den Ende, Jef

2015-01-01

Abstract Variation in practice of medicine is one of the major health policy issues of today. Ultimately, it is related to physicians' decision making. Similar patients with similar likelihood of having disease are often managed by different doctors differently: some doctors may elect to observe the patient, others decide to act based on diagnostic testing and yet others may elect to treat without testing. We explain these differences in practice by differences in disease probability thresholds at which physicians decide to act: contextual social and clinical factors and emotions such as regret affect the threshold by influencing the way doctors integrate objective data related to treatment and testing. However, depending on a theoretical construct each of the physician's behaviour can be considered rational. In fact, we showed that the current regulatory policies lead to predictably low thresholds for most decisions in contemporary practice. As a result, we may expect continuing motivation for overuse of treatment and diagnostic tests. We argue that rationality should take into account both formal principles of rationality and human intuitions about good decisions along the lines of Rawls' ‘reflective equilibrium/considered judgment’. In turn, this can help define a threshold model that is empirically testable. PMID:26639018

Deep Rationality: The Evolutionary Economics of Decision Making

PubMed Central

Kenrick, Douglas T.; Griskevicius, Vladas; Sundie, Jill M.; Li, Norman P.; Li, Yexin Jessica; Neuberg, Steven L.

2009-01-01

What is a “rational” decision? Economists traditionally viewed rationality as maximizing expected satisfaction. This view has been useful in modeling basic microeconomic concepts, but falls short in accounting for many everyday human decisions. It leaves unanswered why some things reliably make people more satisfied than others, and why people frequently act to make others happy at a cost to themselves. Drawing on an evolutionary perspective, we propose that people make decisions according to a set of principles that may not appear to make sense at the superficial level, but that demonstrate rationality at a deeper evolutionary level. By this, we mean that people use adaptive domain-specific decision-rules that, on average, would have resulted in fitness benefits. Using this framework, we re-examine several economic principles. We suggest that traditional psychological functions governing risk aversion, discounting of future benefits, and budget allocations to multiple goods, for example, vary in predictable ways as a function of the underlying motive of the decision-maker and individual differences linked to evolved life-history strategies. A deep rationality framework not only helps explain why people make the decisions they do, but also inspires multiple directions for future research. PMID:20686634

When is diagnostic testing inappropriate or irrational? Acceptable regret approach.

PubMed

Hozo, Iztok; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2008-01-01

The authors provide a new model within the framework of theories of bounded rationality for the observed physicians' behavior that their ordering of diagnostic tests may not be rational. Contrary to the prevailing thinking, the authors find that physicians do not act irrationally or inappropriately when they order diagnostic tests in usual clinical practice. When acceptable regret (i.e., regret that a decision maker finds tolerable upon making a wrong decision) is taken into account, the authors show that physicians tend to order diagnostic tests at a higher level of pretest probability of disease than predicted by expected utility theory. They also show why physicians tend to overtest when regret about erroneous decisions is extremely small. Finally, they explain variations in the practice of medicine. They demonstrate that in the same clinical situation, different decision makers might have different acceptable regret thresholds for withholding treatment, for ordering a diagnostic test, or for administering treatment. This in turn means that for some decision makers, the most rational strategy is to do nothing, whereas for others, it may be to order a diagnostic test, and still for others, choosing treatment may be the most rational course of action.

Action understanding as inverse planning.

PubMed

Baker, Chris L; Saxe, Rebecca; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

2009-12-01

Humans are adept at inferring the mental states underlying other agents' actions, such as goals, beliefs, desires, emotions and other thoughts. We propose a computational framework based on Bayesian inverse planning for modeling human action understanding. The framework represents an intuitive theory of intentional agents' behavior based on the principle of rationality: the expectation that agents will plan approximately rationally to achieve their goals, given their beliefs about the world. The mental states that caused an agent's behavior are inferred by inverting this model of rational planning using Bayesian inference, integrating the likelihood of the observed actions with the prior over mental states. This approach formalizes in precise probabilistic terms the essence of previous qualitative approaches to action understanding based on an "intentional stance" [Dennett, D. C. (1987). The intentional stance. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press] or a "teleological stance" [Gergely, G., Nádasdy, Z., Csibra, G., & Biró, S. (1995). Taking the intentional stance at 12 months of age. Cognition, 56, 165-193]. In three psychophysical experiments using animated stimuli of agents moving in simple mazes, we assess how well different inverse planning models based on different goal priors can predict human goal inferences. The results provide quantitative evidence for an approximately rational inference mechanism in human goal inference within our simplified stimulus paradigm, and for the flexible nature of goal representations that human observers can adopt. We discuss the implications of our experimental results for human action understanding in real-world contexts, and suggest how our framework might be extended to capture other kinds of mental state inferences, such as inferences about beliefs, or inferring whether an entity is an intentional agent.

Opinion Expression as a Rational Behavior.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Sei-Hill

This study looks at individuals' opinion expressions as a rational behavior based on a conscious calculus of expected benefits and costs (economic analysis). The influences of "issue benefit,""opinion congruence," and "issue knowledge," as sources of benefits and costs on opinion expression were hypothesized and tested. The study also examined the…

Why Contextual Preference Reversals Maximize Expected Value

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Contextual preference reversals occur when a preference for one option over another is reversed by the addition of further options. It has been argued that the occurrence of preference reversals in human behavior shows that people violate the axioms of rational choice and that people are not, therefore, expected value maximizers. In contrast, we demonstrate that if a person is only able to make noisy calculations of expected value and noisy observations of the ordinal relations among option features, then the expected value maximizing choice is influenced by the addition of new options and does give rise to apparent preference reversals. We explore the implications of expected value maximizing choice, conditioned on noisy observations, for a range of contextual preference reversal types—including attraction, compromise, similarity, and phantom effects. These preference reversal types have played a key role in the development of models of human choice. We conclude that experiments demonstrating contextual preference reversals are not evidence for irrationality. They are, however, a consequence of expected value maximization given noisy observations. PMID:27337391

Anger as a moderator of safer sex motivation among low-income urban women.

PubMed

Schroder, Kerstin E E; Carey, Michael P

2005-10-01

Theoretical models suggest that both HIV knowledge and HIV risk perception inform rational decision making and, thus, predict safer sex motivation and behavior. However, the amount of variance explained by knowledge and risk perception is typically small. In this cross-sectional study, we investigated whether the predictive power of HIV knowledge and HIV risk perception on safer sex motivation is affected by trait anger. We hypothesized that anger may disrupt rational decision making, distorting the effects of both HIV knowledge and risk perception on safer sex intentions. Data from 232 low-income, urban women at risk for HIV infection were used to test a path model with past sexual risk behavior, HIV knowledge, and HIV risk perception as predictors of safer sex intentions. Moderator effects of anger on safer sex intentions were tested by simultaneous group comparisons between high-anger and low-anger women (median split). The theoretically expected "rational pattern" was found among low-anger women only, including (a) a positive effect of knowledge on safer sex intentions, and (b) buffer (inhibitor) effects of HIV knowledge and HIV risk perception on the negative path leading from past risk behavior to safer sex intentions. Among high-anger women, an "irrational pattern" emerged, with no effects of HIV knowledge and negative effects of both past risk behavior and HIV risk perception on safer sex intentions. In sum, the results suggest that rational knowledge- and risk-based decisions regarding safer sex may be limited to low-anger women.

Anger as a Moderator of Safer Sex Motivation among Low Income Urban Women

PubMed Central

Carey, Michael P.

2005-01-01

Theoretical models suggest that both HIV knowledge and HIV risk perception inform rational decision-making and, thus, predict safer sex motivation and behavior. However, the amount of variance explained by knowledge and risk perception is typically small. In this cross-sectional study, we investigated whether the predictive power of HIV knowledge and HIV risk perception on safer sex motivation is affected by trait anger. We hypothesized that anger may disrupt rational-decision making, distorting the effects of both HIV knowledge and risk perception on safer sex intentions. Data from 232 low-income, urban women at risk for HIV infection were used to test a path model with past sexual risk behavior, HIV knowledge, and HIV risk perception as predictors of safer sex intentions. Moderator effects of anger on safer sex intentions were tested by simultaneous group comparisons between high-anger and low-anger women (median-split). The theoretically expected “rational pattern” was found among low-anger women only, including (a) a positive effect of knowledge on safer sex intentions, and (b) buffer (inhibitor) effects of HIV knowledge and HIV risk perception on the negative path leading from past risk behavior to safer sex intentions. Among high-anger women, an “irrational pattern” emerged, with no effects of HIV knowledge and negative effects of both past risk behavior and HIV risk perception on safer sex intentions. In sum, the results suggest that rational knowledge and risk-based decisions regarding safer sex may be limited to low-anger women. PMID:16247592

State-Dependent Decisions Cause Apparent Violations of Rationality in Animal Choice

PubMed Central

Schuck-Paim, Cynthia; Pompilio, Lorena

2004-01-01

Normative models of choice in economics and biology usually expect preferences to be consistent across contexts, or “rational” in economic language. Following a large body of literature reporting economically irrational behaviour in humans, breaches of rationality by animals have also been recently described. If proven systematic, these findings would challenge long-standing biological approaches to behavioural theorising, and suggest that cognitive processes similar to those claimed to cause irrationality in humans can also hinder optimality approaches to modelling animal preferences. Critical differences between human and animal experiments have not, however, been sufficiently acknowledged. While humans can be instructed conceptually about the choice problem, animals need to be trained by repeated exposure to all contingencies. This exposure often leads to differences in state between treatments, hence changing choices while preserving rationality. We report experiments with European starlings demonstrating that apparent breaches of rationality can result from state-dependence. We show that adding an inferior alternative to a choice set (a “decoy”) affects choices, an effect previously interpreted as indicating irrationality. However, these effects appear and disappear depending on whether state differences between choice contexts are present or not. These results open the possibility that some expressions of maladaptive behaviour are due to oversights in the migration of ideas between economics and biology, and suggest that key differences between human and nonhuman research must be recognised if ideas are to safely travel between these fields. PMID:15550984

A new principle technic for the transformation from frequency domain to time domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Ben-Qing

2017-03-01

A principle technic for the transformation from frequency domain to time domain is presented. Firstly, a special type of frequency domain transcendental equation is obtained for an expected frequency domain parameter which is a rational or irrational fraction expression. Secondly, the inverse Laplace transformation is performed. When the two time-domain factors corresponding to the two frequency domain factors at two sides of frequency domain transcendental equation are known quantities, a time domain transcendental equation is reached. At last, the expected time domain parameter corresponding to the expected frequency domain parameter can be solved by the inverse convolution process. Proceeding from rational or irrational fraction expression, all solving process is provided. In the meantime, the property of time domain sequence is analyzed and the strategy for choosing the parameter values is described. Numerical examples are presented to verify the proposed theory and technic. Except for rational or irrational fraction expressions, examples of complex relative permittivity of water and plasma are used as verification method. The principle method proposed in the paper can easily solve problems which are difficult to be solved by Laplace transformation.

Educational Research as a Form of Democratic Rationality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elliott, John

2006-01-01

Educational Research is commonly regarded as a rational pursuit aimed at the production of objective knowledge. Researchers are expected to avoid value bias by detaching themselves from the normative conceptions of education that shape practice in schools and classrooms, and by casting themselves in the role of the impartial spectator. It is…

Effects of Computer-Assisted Instruction in Using Formal Decision-Making Strategies to Choose a College Major.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mau, Wei-Cheng; Jepsen, David A.

1992-01-01

Compared decision-making strategies and college major choice among 113 first-year students assigned to Elimination by Aspects Strategy (EBA), Subjective Expected Utility Strategy (SEU), and control groups. "Rational" EBA students scored significantly higher on choice certainty; lower on choice anxiety and career indecision than "rational"…

Audience Activity and Media Use.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rubin, Alan M.

1993-01-01

Explores a view of audience behavior that lies between the extremes of a passive audience expected to be influenced by communication messages and an active audience expected to make rational decisions about what media content to accept and reject. (RS)

Evaluating gambles using dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, O.; Gell-Mann, M.

2016-02-01

Gambles are random variables that model possible changes in wealth. Classic decision theory transforms money into utility through a utility function and defines the value of a gamble as the expectation value of utility changes. Utility functions aim to capture individual psychological characteristics, but their generality limits predictive power. Expectation value maximizers are defined as rational in economics, but expectation values are only meaningful in the presence of ensembles or in systems with ergodic properties, whereas decision-makers have no access to ensembles, and the variables representing wealth in the usual growth models do not have the relevant ergodic properties. Simultaneously addressing the shortcomings of utility and those of expectations, we propose to evaluate gambles by averaging wealth growth over time. No utility function is needed, but a dynamic must be specified to compute time averages. Linear and logarithmic "utility functions" appear as transformations that generate ergodic observables for purely additive and purely multiplicative dynamics, respectively. We highlight inconsistencies throughout the development of decision theory, whose correction clarifies that our perspective is legitimate. These invalidate a commonly cited argument for bounded utility functions.

Dynamic route and departure time choice model based on self-adaptive reference point and reinforcement learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xue-yan; Li, Xue-mei; Yang, Lingrun; Li, Jing

2018-07-01

Most of the previous studies on dynamic traffic assignment are based on traditional analytical framework, for instance, the idea of Dynamic User Equilibrium has been widely used in depicting both the route choice and the departure time choice. However, some recent studies have demonstrated that the dynamic traffic flow assignment largely depends on travelers' rationality degree, travelers' heterogeneity and what the traffic information the travelers have. In this paper, we develop a new self-adaptive multi agent model to depict travelers' behavior in Dynamic Traffic Assignment. We use Cumulative Prospect Theory with heterogeneous reference points to illustrate travelers' bounded rationality. We use reinforcement-learning model to depict travelers' route and departure time choosing behavior under the condition of imperfect information. We design the evolution rule of travelers' expected arrival time and the algorithm of traffic flow assignment. Compared with the traditional model, the self-adaptive multi agent model we proposed in this paper can effectively help travelers avoid the rush hour. Finally, we report and analyze the effect of travelers' group behavior on the transportation system, and give some insights into the relation between travelers' group behavior and the performance of transportation system.

Rationality, practice variation and person-centred health policy: a threshold hypothesis.

PubMed

Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hamm, Robert M; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Hozo, Iztok; Van den Ende, Jef

2015-12-01

Variation in practice of medicine is one of the major health policy issues of today. Ultimately, it is related to physicians' decision making. Similar patients with similar likelihood of having disease are often managed by different doctors differently: some doctors may elect to observe the patient, others decide to act based on diagnostic testing and yet others may elect to treat without testing. We explain these differences in practice by differences in disease probability thresholds at which physicians decide to act: contextual social and clinical factors and emotions such as regret affect the threshold by influencing the way doctors integrate objective data related to treatment and testing. However, depending on a theoretical construct each of the physician's behaviour can be considered rational. In fact, we showed that the current regulatory policies lead to predictably low thresholds for most decisions in contemporary practice. As a result, we may expect continuing motivation for overuse of treatment and diagnostic tests. We argue that rationality should take into account both formal principles of rationality and human intuitions about good decisions along the lines of Rawls' 'reflective equilibrium/considered judgment'. In turn, this can help define a threshold model that is empirically testable. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Children's understanding of the costs and rewards underlying rational action.

PubMed

Jara-Ettinger, Julian; Gweon, Hyowon; Tenenbaum, Joshua B; Schulz, Laura E

2015-07-01

Humans explain and predict other agents' behavior using mental state concepts, such as beliefs and desires. Computational and developmental evidence suggest that such inferences are enabled by a principle of rational action: the expectation that agents act efficiently, within situational constraints, to achieve their goals. Here we propose that the expectation of rational action is instantiated by a naïve utility calculus sensitive to both agent-constant and agent-specific aspects of costs and rewards associated with actions. In four experiments, we show that, given an agent's choices, children (range: 5-6 year olds; N=96) can infer unobservable aspects of costs (differences in agents' competence) from information about subjective differences in rewards (differences in agents' preferences) and vice versa. Moreover, children can design informative experiments on both objects and agents to infer unobservable constraints on agents' actions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Untangling complex networks: risk minimization in financial markets through accessible spin glass ground states

PubMed Central

Lisewski, Andreas Martin; Lichtarge, Olivier

2010-01-01

Recurrent international financial crises inflict significant damage to societies and stress the need for mechanisms or strategies to control risk and tamper market uncertainties. Unfortunately, the complex network of market interactions often confounds rational approaches to optimize financial risks. Here we show that investors can overcome this complexity and globally minimize risk in portfolio models for any given expected return, provided the relative margin requirement remains below a critical, empirically measurable value. In practice, for markets with centrally regulated margin requirements, a rational stabilization strategy would be keeping margins small enough. This result follows from ground states of the random field spin glass Ising model that can be calculated exactly through convex optimization when relative spin coupling is limited by the norm of the network's Laplacian matrix. In that regime, this novel approach is robust to noise in empirical data and may be also broadly relevant to complex networks with frustrated interactions that are studied throughout scientific fields. PMID:20625477

Untangling complex networks: Risk minimization in financial markets through accessible spin glass ground states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lisewski, Andreas Martin; Lichtarge, Olivier

2010-08-01

Recurrent international financial crises inflict significant damage to societies and stress the need for mechanisms or strategies to control risk and tamper market uncertainties. Unfortunately, the complex network of market interactions often confounds rational approaches to optimize financial risks. Here we show that investors can overcome this complexity and globally minimize risk in portfolio models for any given expected return, provided the margin requirement remains below a critical, empirically measurable value. In practice, for markets with centrally regulated margin requirements, a rational stabilization strategy would be keeping margins small enough. This result follows from ground states of the random field spin glass Ising model that can be calculated exactly through convex optimization when relative spin coupling is limited by the norm of the network’s Laplacian matrix. In that regime, this novel approach is robust to noise in empirical data and may be also broadly relevant to complex networks with frustrated interactions that are studied throughout scientific fields.

Overrepresentation of extreme events in decision making reflects rational use of cognitive resources.

PubMed

Lieder, Falk; Griffiths, Thomas L; Hsu, Ming

2018-01-01

People's decisions and judgments are disproportionately swayed by improbable but extreme eventualities, such as terrorism, that come to mind easily. This article explores whether such availability biases can be reconciled with rational information processing by taking into account the fact that decision makers value their time and have limited cognitive resources. Our analysis suggests that to make optimal use of their finite time decision makers should overrepresent the most important potential consequences relative to less important, put potentially more probable, outcomes. To evaluate this account, we derive and test a model we call utility-weighted sampling. Utility-weighted sampling estimates the expected utility of potential actions by simulating their outcomes. Critically, outcomes with more extreme utilities have a higher probability of being simulated. We demonstrate that this model can explain not only people's availability bias in judging the frequency of extreme events but also a wide range of cognitive biases in decisions from experience, decisions from description, and memory recall. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

The soft constraints hypothesis: a rational analysis approach to resource allocation for interactive behavior.

PubMed

Gray, Wayne D; Sims, Chris R; Fu, Wai-Tat; Schoelles, Michael J

2006-07-01

Soft constraints hypothesis (SCH) is a rational analysis approach that holds that the mixture of perceptual-motor and cognitive resources allocated for interactive behavior is adjusted based on temporal cost-benefit tradeoffs. Alternative approaches maintain that cognitive resources are in some sense protected or conserved in that greater amounts of perceptual-motor effort will be expended to conserve lesser amounts of cognitive effort. One alternative, the minimum memory hypothesis (MMH), holds that people favor strategies that minimize the use of memory. SCH is compared with MMH across 3 experiments and with predictions of an Ideal Performer Model that uses ACT-R's memory system in a reinforcement learning approach that maximizes expected utility by minimizing time. Model and data support the SCH view of resource allocation; at the under 1000-ms level of analysis, mixtures of cognitive and perceptual-motor resources are adjusted based on their cost-benefit tradeoffs for interactive behavior. ((c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).

Untangling complex networks: risk minimization in financial markets through accessible spin glass ground states.

PubMed

Lisewski, Andreas Martin; Lichtarge, Olivier

2010-08-15

Recurrent international financial crises inflict significant damage to societies and stress the need for mechanisms or strategies to control risk and tamper market uncertainties. Unfortunately, the complex network of market interactions often confounds rational approaches to optimize financial risks. Here we show that investors can overcome this complexity and globally minimize risk in portfolio models for any given expected return, provided the relative margin requirement remains below a critical, empirically measurable value. In practice, for markets with centrally regulated margin requirements, a rational stabilization strategy would be keeping margins small enough. This result follows from ground states of the random field spin glass Ising model that can be calculated exactly through convex optimization when relative spin coupling is limited by the norm of the network's Laplacian matrix. In that regime, this novel approach is robust to noise in empirical data and may be also broadly relevant to complex networks with frustrated interactions that are studied throughout scientific fields.

Adolescent women's contraceptive decision making.

PubMed

Weisman, C S; Plichta, S; Nathanson, C A; Chase, G A; Ensminger, M E; Robinson, J C

1991-06-01

A modified rational decision model incorporating salient events and social influences (particularly from sexual partners) is used to analyze adolescent women's consistent use of oral contraceptives (OCs) over a six-month period. Data are taken from a panel study of 308 clients of an inner-city family planning clinic. Expected OC use was computed for each subject on the basis of subjective expected utility (SEU) theory, and is found in multivariate analyses to be a significant predictor of actual OC use. In addition, variables representing baseline and follow-up partner influences, the salience of pregnancy for the subject, and positive side effects of OCs during the first months of use are found to predict OC use. Partner's support of OC use during follow-up and positive side effects of OCs are found to predict OC use among subjects for whom OC use was not the expected decision according to baseline SEU. Implications of the findings for models of adolescents' contraceptive behavior and for clinicians are discussed.

Investigating Miranda waiver decisions: An examination of the rational consequences.

PubMed

Blackwood, Hayley L; Rogers, Richard; Steadham, Jennifer A; Fiduccia, Chelsea E

2015-01-01

Millions of custodial suspects waive their Miranda rights each year without the benefit of legal counsel. Miranda understanding, appreciation, and reasoning abilities are essential to courts' acceptance of Miranda waivers (Grisso, 2003; Rogers & Shuman, 2005). The question posed to forensic psychologists and psychiatrists in the disputed Miranda waivers is whether a particular waiver decision was knowing, intelligent, and voluntary. Despite the remarkable development of Miranda research in recent decades, studies have generally focused on understanding and appreciation of Miranda rights, but with comparatively minimal emphasis on Miranda reasoning and attendant waiver decisions. Research on defendants' decisional capacities constitutes a critical step in further developing theoretical and clinical models for Miranda waiver decisions. The current study evaluated Miranda waiver decisions for 80 pretrial defendants from two Oklahoma jails to study systematically how rational decision abilities affect defendants' personal waiver decisions. In stark contrast to what was expected, many defendants were able to identify a rational decisional process in their own legal cases, yet cast such reasoning aside and chose a completely contradictory Miranda waiver decision. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Rational design for the stability improvement of Armillariella tabescens β-mannanase MAN47 based on N-glycosylation modification.

PubMed

Hu, Weixiong; Liu, Xiaoyun; Li, Yufeng; Liu, Daling; Kuang, Zhihe; Qian, Chuiwen; Yao, Dongsheng

2017-02-01

β-Mannanase has been widely used in industries such as food and feed processing and thus has been a target enzyme for biotechnological development. In this study, we sought to improve the stability and protease resistance of a recombinant β-mannanase, MAN47 from Armillariella tabescens, through rationally designed N-glycosylation. Based on homology modeling, molecular docking, secondary structure analysis and glycosylation feasibility analysis, an enhanced aromatic sequon sequence was introduced into specific MAN47 loop regions to facilitate N-glycosylation. The mutant enzymes were expressed in Pichia pastoris SMD1168, and their thermal stability, pH stability, trypsin resistance and pepsin resistance were determined. Two mutant MAN47 enzymes, g-123 and g-347, were glycosylated as expected when expressed in yeast, and their thermal stability, pH stability, and protease resistance were significantly improved compared to the wild-type enzyme. An enzyme with multiple stability characterizations has broad prospects in practical applications, and the rational design N-glycosylation strategy may have applications in simultaneously improving several properties of other biotechnological targets. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Functional Model of Sensemaking in a Neurocognitive Architecture (Open Access, Publisher’s Version)

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-07-08

bias. Moreover, it is to be expected that a rational agent learns and adapts its strategies and knowledge, its metacognitive control (e.g., more...Pirolli and S. K. Card, “The sensemaking process and leverage points for analyst technology ,” inProceedings of the International Conference on...user: the sense- making of qualitative-quantitative methodology,” in Sense- Making Methodology Reader: Selected Writings of Brenda Dervin, B. Dervin, L

How might Model-based Probabilities Extracted from Imperfect Models Guide Rational Decisions: The Case for non-probabilistic odds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Leonard A.

2010-05-01

This contribution concerns "deep" or "second-order" uncertainty, such as the uncertainty in our probability forecasts themselves. It asks the question: "Is it rational to take (or offer) bets using model-based probabilities as if they were objective probabilities?" If not, what alternative approaches for determining odds, perhaps non-probabilistic odds, might prove useful in practice, given the fact we know our models are imperfect? We consider the case where the aim is to provide sustainable odds: not to produce a profit but merely to rationally expect to break even in the long run. In other words, to run a quantified risk of ruin that is relatively small. Thus the cooperative insurance schemes of coastal villages provide a more appropriate parallel than a casino. A "better" probability forecast would lead to lower premiums charged and less volatile fluctuations in the cash reserves of the village. Note that the Bayesian paradigm does not constrain one to interpret model distributions as subjective probabilities, unless one believes the model to be empirically adequate for the task at hand. In geophysics, this is rarely the case. When a probability forecast is interpreted as the objective probability of an event, the odds on that event can be easily computed as one divided by the probability of the event, and one need not favour taking either side of the wager. (Here we are using "odds-for" not "odds-to", the difference being whether of not the stake is returned; odds of one to one are equivalent to odds of two for one.) The critical question is how to compute sustainable odds based on information from imperfect models. We suggest that this breaks the symmetry between the odds-on an event and the odds-against it. While a probability distribution can always be translated into odds, interpreting the odds on a set of events might result in "implied-probabilities" that sum to more than one. And/or the set of odds may be incomplete, not covering all events. We ask whether or not probabilities based on imperfect models can be expected to yield probabilistic odds which are sustainable. Evidence is provided that suggest this is not the case. Even with very good models (good in an Root-Mean-Square sense), the risk of ruin of probabilistic odds is significantly higher than might be expected. Methods for constructing model-based non-probabilistic odds which are sustainable are discussed. The aim here is to be relevant to real world decision support, and so unrealistic assumptions of equal knowledge, equal compute power, or equal access to information are to be avoided. Finally, the use of non-probabilistic odds as a method for communicating deep uncertainty (uncertainty in a probability forecast itself) is discussed in the context of other methods, such as stating one's subjective probability that the models will prove inadequate in each particular instance (that is, the Probability of a "Big Surprise").

Ethics and health care ‘underfunding'

PubMed Central

Maynard, A.

2001-01-01

There are continual "crises" in health care systems worldwide as producer and patient groups unify and decry the "underfunding" of health care. Sometimes this cacophony is the self interest of profit seeking producers and often it is advocacy of unproven therapies. Such pressure is to be expected and needs careful management by explicit rationing criteria which determine who gets access to what health care. Science and rationality, however, are unfortunately, rarely the rules of conduct in the medical market-place. Key Words: Underfunding • rationing • efficiency • equity • accountability PMID:11479351

SURVIAC Bulletin, Issue 1

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-01

settings that cover the range of environmental conditions in which the rations are expected to function. These vitally important state-of-the- art ...and the Joint Culinary Center of Excellence on nutritional issues impacting the Warfighter, supports the Surgeon General’s responsibilities as the...Advanced Food Processing Laboratory and Food Pilot Plant for production and testing of food to facilitate state-of-the- art ration development. The

Enrolment Choices in Portuguese Higher Education: Do Students Behave as Rational Consumers?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tavares, Orlanda; Cardoso, Sónia

2013-01-01

As part of a progressive change occurring in the way public sector beneficiaries are conceived, higher education students started to be more and more perceived as clients or consumers. This implies assuming them as rational and conscious actors aware of what to expect from higher education attendance and of its returns. Framed by the metaphor of…

Endogenous Market-Clearing Prices and Reference Point Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dragicevic, Arnaud Z.

When prices depend on the submitted bids, i.e. with endogenous market-clearing prices in repeated-round auction mechanisms, the assumption of independent private values that underlines the property of incentive-compatibility is to be brought into question; even if these mechanisms provide active involvement and market learning. In its orthodox view, adaptive bidding behavior imperils incentive-compatibility. We relax the assumption of private values' independence in the repeated-round auctions, when the market-clearing prices are made public at the end of each round. Instead of using game-theory learning models, we introduce a behavioral model that shows that bidders bid according to the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic, which neither ignores the rationality and incentive-compatibility constraints, nor rejects the posted prices issued from others' bids. Bidders simply weight information at their disposal and adjust their discovered value using reference points encoded in the sequential price weighting function. Our model says that bidders and offerers are sincere boundedly rational utility maximizers. It lies between evolutionary dynamics and adaptive heuristics and we model the concept of inertia as high weighting of the anchor, which stands for truthful bidding and high regard to freshly discovered preferences. Adjustment means adaptive rule based on adaptation of the reference point in the direction of the posted price. It helps a bidder to maximize her expected payoff, which is after all the only purpose that matters to rationality. The two components simply suggest that sincere bidders are boundedly rational. Furthermore, by deviating from their anchor in the direction of the public signal, bidders operate in a correlated equilibrium. The correlation between bids comes from the commonly observed history of play and each bidder's actions are determined by the history. Bidders are sincere if they have limited memory and confine their reference point adaptation to their anchor and the latest posted price. S-shaped weighting mechanism reflects such a bidding strategy.

Rational Approximations to Rational Models: Alternative Algorithms for Category Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sanborn, Adam N.; Griffiths, Thomas L.; Navarro, Daniel J.

2010-01-01

Rational models of cognition typically consider the abstract computational problems posed by the environment, assuming that people are capable of optimally solving those problems. This differs from more traditional formal models of cognition, which focus on the psychological processes responsible for behavior. A basic challenge for rational models…

[Rational choice, prediction, and medical decision. Contribution of severity scores].

PubMed

Bizouarn, P; Fiat, E; Folscheid, D

2001-11-01

The aim of this study was to determine what type of representation the medical doctor adopted concerning the uncertainty about the future in critically ill patients in the context of preoperative evaluation and intensive care medicine and to explore through the representation of the patient health status the different possibilities of choice he was able to make. The role played by the severity classification systems in the process of medical decision-making under probabilistic uncertainty was assessed according to the theories of rational behaviour. In this context, a medical rationality needed to be discovered, going beyond the instrumental status of the objective and/or subjective constructions of rational choice theories and reaching a dimension where means and expected ends could be included.

(Ir)rational choices of humans, rhesus macaques, and capuchin monkeys in dynamic stochastic environments.

PubMed

Watzek, Julia; Brosnan, Sarah F

2018-05-28

Human and animal decision-making is known to violate rational expectations in a variety of contexts. Previous models suggest that statistical structures of real-world environments can favor such seemingly irrational behavior, but this has not been tested empirically. We tested 16 capuchin monkeys, seven rhesus monkeys, and 30 humans in a computerized experiment that implemented such stochastic environments. Subjects chose from among up to three options of different value that disappeared and became available again with different probabilities. All species overwhelmingly chose transitively (A > B > C) in the control condition, where doing so maximized overall gain. Most subjects also adhered to transitivity in the test condition, where it was suboptimal, but ultimately led to negligible losses compared to the optimal, non-transitive strategy. We used a modelling approach to show that differences in temporal discounting may account for this pattern of choices on a proximate level. Specifically, when short- and long-term goals are valued similarly, near-optimal decision rules can map onto rational choice principles. Such cognitive shortcuts have been argued to have evolved to preserve mental resources without sacrificing good decision-making, and here we provide evidence that these heuristics can provide almost identical outcomes even in situations in which they lead to suboptimal choices. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Economic rationality and health and lifestyle choices for people with diabetes.

PubMed

Baker, Rachel Mairi

2006-11-01

Economic rationality is traditionally represented by goal-oriented, maximising behaviour, or 'instrumental rationality'. Such a consequentialist, instrumental model of choice is often implicit in a biomedical approach to health promotion and education. The research reported here assesses the relevance of a broader conceptual framework of rationality, which includes 'procedural' and 'expressive' rationality as complements to an instrumental model of rationality, in a health context. Q methodology was used to derive 'factors' underlying health and lifestyle choices, based on a factor analysis of the results of a card sorting procedure undertaken by 27 adult respondents with type 2 diabetes in Newcastle upon Tyne, UK. These factors were then compared with the rationality framework and the appropriateness of an extended model of economic rationality as a means of better understanding health and lifestyle choices was assessed. Taking a wider rational choice perspective, choices which are rendered irrational within a narrow-biomedical or strictly instrumental model, can be understood in terms of a coherent rationale, grounded in the accounts of respondents. The implications of these findings are discussed in terms of rational choice theory and diabetes management and research.

Stability and Hopf bifurcation for a business cycle model with expectation and delay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiangdong; Cai, Wenli; Lu, Jiajun; Wang, Yangyang

2015-08-01

According to rational expectation hypothesis, the government will take into account the future capital stock in the process of investment decision. By introducing anticipated capital stock into an economic model with investment delay, we construct a mixed functional differential system including delay and advanced variables. The system is converted to the one containing only delay by variable substitution. The equilibrium point of the system is obtained and its dynamical characteristics such as stability, Hopf bifurcation and its stability and direction are investigated by using the related theories of nonlinear dynamics. We carry out some numerical simulations to confirm these theoretical conclusions. The results indicate that both capital stock's anticipation and investment lag are the certain factors leading to the occurrence of cyclical fluctuations in the macroeconomic system. Moreover, the level of economic fluctuation can be dampened to some extent if investment decisions are made by the reasonable short-term forecast on capital stock.

A social information processing approach to job attitudes and task design.

PubMed

Salancik, G R; Pfeffer, J

1978-06-01

This article outlines a social information processing approach to explain job attitudes. In comparison with need-satisfaction and expectancy models to job attitudes and motivation, the social information processing perspective emphasizes the effects of context and the consequences of past choices, rather than individual predispositions and rational decision-making processes. When an individual develops statements about attitude or needs, he or she uses social information--information about past behavior and about what others think. The process of attributing attitudes or needs from behavior is itself affected by commitment processes, by the saliency and relevance of information, and by the need to develop socially acceptable and legitimate rationalizations for actions. Both attitudes and need statements, as well as characterizations of jobs, are affected by informational social influence. The implications of the social information processing perspective for organization development efforts and programs of job redesign are discussed.

Rationally designed synthetic protein hydrogels with predictable mechanical properties.

PubMed

Wu, Junhua; Li, Pengfei; Dong, Chenling; Jiang, Heting; Bin Xue; Gao, Xiang; Qin, Meng; Wang, Wei; Bin Chen; Cao, Yi

2018-02-12

Designing synthetic protein hydrogels with tailored mechanical properties similar to naturally occurring tissues is an eternal pursuit in tissue engineering and stem cell and cancer research. However, it remains challenging to correlate the mechanical properties of protein hydrogels with the nanomechanics of individual building blocks. Here we use single-molecule force spectroscopy, protein engineering and theoretical modeling to prove that the mechanical properties of protein hydrogels are predictable based on the mechanical hierarchy of the cross-linkers and the load-bearing modules at the molecular level. These findings provide a framework for rationally designing protein hydrogels with independently tunable elasticity, extensibility, toughness and self-healing. Using this principle, we demonstrate the engineering of self-healable muscle-mimicking hydrogels that can significantly dissipate energy through protein unfolding. We expect that this principle can be generalized for the construction of protein hydrogels with customized mechanical properties for biomedical applications.

The behavioural ecology of irrational behaviours.

PubMed

Huneman, Philippe; Martens, Johannes

2017-08-17

Natural selection is often envisaged as the ultimate cause of the apparent rationality exhibited by organisms in their specific habitat. Given the equivalence between selection and rationality as maximizing processes, one would indeed expect organisms to implement rational decision-makers. Yet, many violations of the clauses of rationality have been witnessed in various species such as starlings, hummingbirds, amoebas and honeybees. This paper attempts to interpret such discrepancies between economic rationality (defined by the main axioms of rational choice theory) and biological rationality (defined by natural selection). After having distinguished two kinds of rationality we introduce irrationality as a negation of economic rationality by biologically rational decision-makers. Focusing mainly on those instances of irrationalities that can be understood as exhibiting inconsistency in making choices, i.e. as non-conformity of a given behaviour to axioms such as transitivity or independence of irrelevant alternatives, we propose two possible families of Darwinian explanations that may account for these apparent irrationalities. First, we consider cases where natural selection may have been an indirect cause of irrationality. Second, we consider putative cases where violations of rationality axioms may have been directly favored by natural selection. Though the latter cases (prima facie) seem to clearly contradict our intuitive representation of natural selection as a process that maximizes fitness, we argue that they are actually unproblematic; for often, they can be redescribed as cases where no rationality axiom is violated, or as situations where no adaptive solution exists in the first place.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daly, G.G.; Mayor, T.H.

This paper develops a technique for extracting the expectations embedded in the current prices of energy-using durable goods and applies it to be used-car markets during the two energy crises of the 1970s. The resulting estimates indicate that consumers took the energy crises seriously and formed expectations about future gasoline prices that appear rational when compared with the historical gasoline price series, with the forecasts of specialists and experts, or with the actual postsample behavior of gasoline prices. The evidence therefore supports the view that consumers are able to make rather complex choices with a great deal of rationality andmore » casts doubt on the wisdom of policies based on assumptions to the contrary. 17 references, 2 figures.« less

Reference-dependent risk sensitivity as rational inference.

PubMed

Denrell, Jerker C

2015-07-01

Existing explanations of reference-dependent risk sensitivity attribute it to cognitive imperfections and heuristic choice processes. This article shows that behavior consistent with an S-shaped value function could be an implication of rational inferences about the expected values of alternatives. Theoretically, I demonstrate that even a risk-neutral Bayesian decision maker, who is uncertain about the reliability of observations, should use variability in observed outcomes as a predictor of low expected value for outcomes above a reference level, and as a predictor of high expected value for outcomes below a reference level. Empirically, I show that combining past outcomes using an S-shaped value function leads to accurate predictions about future values. The theory also offers a rationale for why risk sensitivity consistent with an inverse S-shaped value function should occur in experiments on decisions from experience with binary payoff distributions. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Putting the psychology back into psychological models: mechanistic versus rational approaches.

PubMed

Sakamoto, Yasuaki; Jones, Mattr; Love, Bradley C

2008-09-01

Two basic approaches to explaining the nature of the mind are the rational and the mechanistic approaches. Rational analyses attempt to characterize the environment and the behavioral outcomes that humans seek to optimize, whereas mechanistic models attempt to simulate human behavior using processes and representations analogous to those used by humans. We compared these approaches with regard to their accounts of how humans learn the variability of categories. The mechanistic model departs in subtle ways from rational principles. In particular, the mechanistic model incrementally updates its estimates of category means and variances through error-driven learning, based on discrepancies between new category members and the current representation of each category. The model yields a prediction, which we verify, regarding the effects of order manipulations that the rational approach does not anticipate. Although both rational and mechanistic models can successfully postdict known findings, we suggest that psychological advances are driven primarily by consideration of process and representation and that rational accounts trail these breakthroughs.

Interest contagion in violation-of-expectation-based false-belief tasks.

PubMed

Falck, Andreas; Brinck, Ingar; Lindgren, Magnus

2014-01-01

In the debate about how to interpret Violation-of-Expectation (VoE) based false-belief experiments, it has been suggested that infants are predicting the actions of the agent based on more or less sophisticated cognitive means. We present an alternative, more parsimonious interpretation, exploring the possibility that the infants' reactions are not governed by rational expectation but rather of memory strength due to differences in the allocation of cognitive resources earlier in the experiment. Specifically, it is argued that (1) infants' have a tendency to find more interest in events that observed agents are attending to as opposed to unattended events ("interest contagion"), (2) the object-location configurations that result from such interesting events are remembered more strongly by the infants, and (3) the VoE contrast arises as a consequence of the difference in memory strength between more and less interesting object-location configurations. We discuss two published experiments, one which we argue that our model can explain (Kovács etal., 2010), and one which we argue cannot be readily explained by our model (Onishi and Baillargeon, 2005).

Toward an Extension of Decision Analysis to Competitive Situations.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-12-01

order to deal with competition may ease the use of non- von Neumann-Morgenstern utility. This leads to our secondary goal of questioning expected...While von WInterfeldt [1980] attempted a 5 (more detailed analysis using three separate decision trees, one for each side In the dispute, he felt that...rationality generally used In game theory derives from the same roots as the calculated rationality of Decision Analysis, von Neumann and

Prevalence and Determinants of Physician Bedside Rationing

PubMed Central

Hurst, Samia A; Slowther, Anne-Marie; Forde, Reidun; Pegoraro, Renzo; Reiter-Theil, Stella; Perrier, Arnaud; Garrett-Mayer, Elizabeth; Danis, Marion

2006-01-01

BACKGROUND Bedside rationing by physicians is controversial. The debate, however, is clouded by lack of information regarding the extent and character of bedside rationing. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We developed a survey instrument to examine the frequency, criteria, and strategies used for bedside rationing. Content validity was assessed through expert assessment and scales were tested for internal consistency. The questionnaire was translated and administered to General Internists in Norway, Switzerland, Italy, and the United Kingdom. Logistic regression was used to identify the variables associated with reported rationing. RESULTS Survey respondents (N =656, response rate 43%) ranged in age from 28 to 82, and averaged 25 years in practice. Most respondents (82.3%) showed some degree of agreement with rationing, and 56.3% reported that they did ration interventions. The most frequently mentioned criteria for rationing were a small expected benefit (82.3%), low chances of success (79.8%), an intervention intended to prolong life when quality of life is low (70.6%), and a patient over 85 years of age (70%). The frequency of rationing by clinicians was positively correlated with perceived scarcity of resources (odds ratio [OR]=1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06 to 1.16), perceived pressure to ration (OR=2.14, 95% CI 1.52 to 3.01), and agreement with rationing (OR=1.13, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.23). CONCLUSION Bedside rationing is prevalent in all surveyed European countries and varies with physician attitudes and resource availability. The prevalence of physician bedside rationing, which presents physicians with difficult moral dilemmas, highlights the importance of discussions regarding how to ration care in the most ethically justifiable manner. PMID:16836629

Bounded rationality alters the dynamics of paediatric immunization acceptance.

PubMed

Oraby, Tamer; Bauch, Chris T

2015-06-02

Interactions between disease dynamics and vaccinating behavior have been explored in many coupled behavior-disease models. Cognitive effects such as risk perception, framing, and subjective probabilities of adverse events can be important determinants of the vaccinating behaviour, and represent departures from the pure "rational" decision model that are often described as "bounded rationality". However, the impact of such cognitive effects in the context of paediatric infectious disease vaccines has received relatively little attention. Here, we develop a disease-behavior model that accounts for bounded rationality through prospect theory. We analyze the model and compare its predictions to a reduced model that lacks bounded rationality. We find that, in general, introducing bounded rationality increases the dynamical richness of the model and makes it harder to eliminate a paediatric infectious disease. In contrast, in other cases, a low cost, highly efficacious vaccine can be refused, even when the rational decision model predicts acceptance. Injunctive social norms can prevent vaccine refusal, if vaccine acceptance is sufficiently high in the beginning of the vaccination campaign. Cognitive processes can have major impacts on the predictions of behaviour-disease models, and further study of such processes in the context of vaccination is thus warranted.

Neural mechanisms of understanding rational actions: middle temporal gyrus activation by contextual violation.

PubMed

Jastorff, Jan; Clavagnier, Simon; Gergely, György; Orban, Guy A

2011-02-01

Performing goal-directed actions toward an object in accordance with contextual constraints, such as the presence or absence of an obstacle, has been widely used as a paradigm for assessing the capacity of infants or nonhuman primates to evaluate the rationality of others' actions. Here, we have used this paradigm in a functional magnetic resonance imaging experiment to visualize the cortical regions involved in the assessment of action rationality while controlling for visual differences in the displays and directly correlating magnetic resonance activity with rationality ratings. Bilateral middle temporal gyrus (MTG) regions, anterior to extrastriate body area and the human middle temporal complex, were involved in the visual evaluation of action rationality. These MTG regions are embedded in the superior temporal sulcus regions processing the kinematics of observed actions. Our results suggest that rationality is assessed initially by purely visual computations, combining the kinematics of the action with the physical constraints of the environmental context. The MTG region seems to be sensitive to the contingent relationship between a goal-directed biological action and its relevant environmental constraints, showing increased activity when the expected pattern of rational goal attainment is violated.

The effect of accountability on loss aversion.

PubMed

Vieider, Ferdinand M

2009-09-01

This paper investigates the effect of accountability-the expectation on the side of the decision maker of having to justify his/her decisions to somebody else-on loss aversion. Loss aversion is commonly thought to be the strongest component of risk aversion. Accountability is found to reduce the bias of loss aversion. This effect is explained by the higher cognitive effort induced by accountability, which triggers a rational check on emotional reactions at the base of loss aversion, leading to a reduction of the latter. Connections to dual-processing models are discussed.

Why the Best Isn't so Bad: Moderation and Ideals in Educational Reform

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kerdeman, Deborah

2009-01-01

In "Moderating the Debate: Rationality and the Promise of American Education," Michael Feuer counsels reformers to "satisfice": moderate their expectations and accept that flawed reforms can be good enough. Implicit in Feuer's view of satisficing is the assumption that moderating expectations entails eschewing ideals and replacing optimal goals…

The Distributional and Cost Implications of Negative Expected Family Contributions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelchen, Robert

2017-01-01

Eligibility for many federal, state, and institutional financial aid programs is determined by the expected family contribution (EFC) from the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA), which functions as a tool to ration scarce aid dollars. The lowest possible EFC under current rules is zero, but this obscures a wider distribution of…

Impacts of the driver's bounded rationality on the traffic running cost under the car-following model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Tie-Qiao; Luo, Xiao-Feng; Liu, Kai

2016-09-01

The driver's bounded rationality has significant influences on the micro driving behavior and researchers proposed some traffic flow models with the driver's bounded rationality. However, little effort has been made to explore the effects of the driver's bounded rationality on the trip cost. In this paper, we use our recently proposed car-following model to study the effects of the driver's bounded rationality on his running cost and the system's total cost under three traffic running costs. The numerical results show that considering the driver's bounded rationality will enhance his each running cost and the system's total cost under the three traffic running costs.

Is expected utility theory normative for medical decision making?

PubMed

Cohen, B J

1996-01-01

Expected utility theory is felt by its proponents to be a normative theory of decision making under uncertainty. The theory starts with some simple axioms that are held to be rules that any rational person would follow. It can be shown that if one adheres to these axioms, a numerical quantity, generally referred to as utility, can be assigned to each possible outcome, with the preferred course of action being that which has the highest expected utility. One of these axioms, the independence principle, is controversial, and is frequently violated in experimental situations. Proponents of the theory hold that these violations are irrational. The independence principle is simply an axiom dictating consistency among preferences, in that it dictates that a rational agent should hold a specified preference given another stated preference. When applied to preferences between lotteries, the independence principle can be demonstrated to be a rule that is followed only when preferences are formed in a particular way. The logic of expected utility theory is that this demonstration proves that preferences should be formed in this way. An alternative interpretation is that this demonstrates that the independence principle is not a valid general rule of consistency, but in particular, is a rule that must be followed if one is to consistently apply the decision rule "choose the lottery that has the highest expected utility." This decision rule must be justified on its own terms as a valid rule of rationality by demonstration that violation would lead to decisions that conflict with the decision maker's goals. This rule does not appear to be suitable for medical decisions because often these are one-time decisions in which expectation, a long-run property of a random variable, would not seem to be applicable. This is particularly true for those decisions involving a non-trivial risk of death.

Predictors of FIFA 11+ Implementation Intention in Female Adolescent Soccer: An Application of the Health Action Process Approach (HAPA) Model

PubMed Central

McKay, Carly D.; Merrett, Charlotte K.; Emery, Carolyn A.

2016-01-01

The Fédération Internationale de Football (FIFA) 11+ warm-up program is efficacious at preventing lower limb injury in youth soccer; however, there has been poor adoption of the program in the community. The purpose of this study was to determine the utility of the Health Action Process Approach (HAPA) behavior change model in predicting intention to use the FIFA 11+ in a sample of 12 youth soccer teams (coaches n = 10; 12–16 year old female players n = 200). A bespoke cross-sectional questionnaire measured pre-season risk perceptions, outcome expectancies, task self-efficacy, facilitators, barriers, and FIFA 11+ implementation intention. Most coaches (90.0%) and players (80.0%) expected the program to reduce injury risk but reported limited intention to use it. Player data demonstrated an acceptable fit to the hypothesized model (standardized root mean square residual (SRMR) = 0.08; root mean square of error of approximation (RMSEA) = 0.06 (0.047–0.080); comparative fit index (CFI) = 0.93; Tucker Lewis index (TLI) = 0.91) Task self-efficacy (β = 0.53, p ≤ 0.01) and outcome expectancies (β = 0.13 p ≤ 0.05) were positively associated with intention, but risk perceptions were not (β = −0.02). The findings suggest that the HAPA model is appropriate for use in this context, and highlight the need to target task self-efficacy and outcome expectancies in FIFA 11+ implementation strategies. PMID:27399746

Do we see how they perceive risk? An integrated analysis of risk perception and its effect on workplace safety behavior.

PubMed

Xia, Nini; Wang, Xueqing; Griffin, Mark A; Wu, Chunlin; Liu, Bingsheng

2017-09-01

While risk perception is a key factor influencing safety behavior, the academia lacks specific attention to the ways that workers perceive risk, and thus little is known about the mechanisms through which different risk perceptions influence safety behavior. Most previous research in the workplace safety domain argues that people tend to perceive risk based on rational formulations of risk criticality. However, individuals' emotions can be also useful in understanding their perceptions. Therefore, this research employs an integrated analysis concerning the rational and emotional perspectives. Specifically, it was expected that the identified three rational ways of perceiving risk, i.e., perceived probability, severity, and negative utility, would influence the direct emotional risk perception. Furthermore, these four risk perceptions were all expected to positively but differently influence safety behavior. The hypotheses were tested using a sample of 120 construction workers. It was found that all the three rational risk perceptions significantly influenced workers' direct perception of risk that is mainly based on emotions. Furthermore, safety behavior among workers relied mainly on emotional perception but not rational calculations of risk. This research contributes to workplace safety research by highlighting the importance of integrating the emotional assessment of risk, especially when workers' risk perception and behavior are concerned. Suggested avenues for improving safety behavior through improvement in risk perception include being aware of the possibility of different ways of perceiving risk, promoting experience sharing and accident simulation, and uncovering risk information. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

If only I had taken my usual route…: age-related differences in counter-factual thinking.

PubMed

Horhota, Michelle; Mienaltowski, Andrew; Blanchard-Fields, Fredda

2012-01-01

Previous research suggests that young adults can shift between rational and experiential modes of thinking when forming social judgments. The present study examines whether older adults demonstrate this flexibility in thinking. Young and older adults completed an If-only task adapted from Epstein, Lipson, and Huh's (1992 , Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 62, 328) examination of individuals' ability to adopt rational or experiential modes of thought while making a judgment about characters who experience a negative event that could have been avoided. Consistent with our expectations for their judgments of the characters, young adults shifted between experiential and rational modes of thought when instructed to do so. Conversely, regardless of the mode of thought being used or the order with which they adopted the different modes of thought (i.e., shifting from experiential to rational in Study 1 and from rational to experiential in Study 2), older adults consistently offered judgments and justifications that reflected a preference for experiential-based thought.

The Continuing Quest for Rationality in Curriculum Practice.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gay, Geneva

1979-01-01

Suggests that understanding different conceptual models of curriculum making will increase the effectiveness and rationality of the development process. Presents four commonly used models of curriculum development: empiricism, rationalism, pragmatism, and humanism. (Author/JM)

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: a novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making.

PubMed

Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Vickers, Andrew; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2010-09-16

Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly in those clinical situations when the best management option is the one associated with the least amount of regret (e.g. diagnosis and treatment of advanced cancer, etc).

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly in those clinical situations when the best management option is the one associated with the least amount of regret (e.g. diagnosis and treatment of advanced cancer, etc). PMID:20846413

Interpreting the rational addiction model.

PubMed

Ferguson, B S

2000-10-01

The rational addiction (RA) model of Becker and Murphy (Becker GS, Murphy KM. A theory of rational addiction. J Pol Econ 1988; 96(4): 675-700) has rapidly become one of the standard models in the literature on addictive behaviour. This paper reviews some theoretical issues surrounding its use, and indicates areas in which caution should be used in applying this model.

"Between Rationality and Politics": Autobiographical Portraits of Adult Education Programme Planning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McLean, Scott

2000-01-01

Contrasts two models of adult education program planning: (1) the technical rational model, which asserts that planning is rational application of decision-making processes; and (2) the political model, which views planning as negotiation of personal and organizational interests. Finds a place for both political sensitivity and technical…

Spectral Estimation: An Overdetermined Rational Model Equation Approach.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-09-15

A-A123 122 SPECTRAL ESTIMATION: AN OVERDETERMINEO RATIONAL MODEL 1/2 EQUATION APPROACH..(U) ARIZONA STATE UNIV TEMPE DEPT OF ELECTRICAL AND COMPUTER...2 0 447,_______ 4. TITLE (mAd Sabile) S. TYPE or REPORT a PEP40D COVERED Spectral Estimation; An Overdeteruined Rational Final Report 9/3 D/8 to...andmmd&t, by uwek 7a5 4 Rational Spectral Estimation, ARMA mo~Ie1, AR model, NMA Mdle, Spectrum, Singular Value Decomposition. Adaptivb Implementatlan

A Study on the Application of the Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills (IMB) Model on Rational Drug Use Behavior among Second-Level Hospital Outpatients in Anhui, China.

PubMed

Bian, Cheng; Xu, Shuman; Wang, Heng; Li, Niannian; Wu, Jingya; Zhao, Yunwu; Li, Peng; Lu, Hua

2015-01-01

The high prevalence of risky irrational drug use behaviors mean that outpatients face high risks of drug resistance and even death. This study represents the first application of the Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills (IMB) model on rational drug use behavior among second-level hospital outpatients from three prefecture-level cities in Anhui, China. Using the IMB model, our study examined predictors of rational drug use behavior and determined the associations between the model constructs. This study was conducted with a sample of 1,214 outpatients aged 18 years and older in Anhui second-level hospitals and applied the structural equation model (SEM) to test predictive relations among the IMB model variables related to rational drug use behavior. Age, information and motivation had significant direct effects on rational drug use behavior. Behavioral skills as an intermediate variable also significantly predicted more rational drug use behavior. Female gender, higher educational level, more information and more motivation predicted more behavioral skills. In addition, there were significant indirect impacts on rational drug use behavior mediated through behavioral skills. The IMB-based model explained the relationships between the constructs and rational drug use behavior of outpatients in detail, and it suggests that future interventions among second-level hospital outpatients should consider demographic characteristics and should focus on improving motivation and behavioral skills in addition to the publicity of knowledge.

A Study on the Application of the Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills (IMB) Model on Rational Drug Use Behavior among Second-Level Hospital Outpatients in Anhui, China

PubMed Central

Wang, Heng; Li, Niannian; Wu, Jingya; Zhao, Yunwu; Li, Peng; Lu, Hua

2015-01-01

Background The high prevalence of risky irrational drug use behaviors mean that outpatients face high risks of drug resistance and even death. This study represents the first application of the Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills (IMB) model on rational drug use behavior among second-level hospital outpatients from three prefecture-level cities in Anhui, China. Using the IMB model, our study examined predictors of rational drug use behavior and determined the associations between the model constructs. Methods This study was conducted with a sample of 1,214 outpatients aged 18 years and older in Anhui second-level hospitals and applied the structural equation model (SEM) to test predictive relations among the IMB model variables related to rational drug use behavior. Results Age, information and motivation had significant direct effects on rational drug use behavior. Behavioral skills as an intermediate variable also significantly predicted more rational drug use behavior. Female gender, higher educational level, more information and more motivation predicted more behavioral skills. In addition, there were significant indirect impacts on rational drug use behavior mediated through behavioral skills. Conclusions The IMB-based model explained the relationships between the constructs and rational drug use behavior of outpatients in detail, and it suggests that future interventions among second-level hospital outpatients should consider demographic characteristics and should focus on improving motivation and behavioral skills in addition to the publicity of knowledge. PMID:26275301

Milk Production, Physiological Condition and Performance of Etawa Crossbreed Goats Feed by Ration Supplemented with Mangosteen Peel Flour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dzarnisa; Rachmadi, D.; Azhar, A.; Fakhrur Riza, R.; Hidayati, A.

2018-02-01

Study on the effect of the addition of mangosteen (Garcinia mangostana L.) peel flour on physiological condition and performance of Etawa crossbreed goats was done. This was to grant the use of mangosteen peel flour that rich of antioxidants and has variety good benefits for health as feed additive for cattle. This study used a Complete Randomized Block Design consisting of 4 treatment groups and 4 replications each. Subjects were 16 female Etawa crossbreed goats randomly designed into treatments group based on lactation periods. Subjects were feed with traditional rations (control, A), traditional rations and 2.5% mangosteen peel flour (B), tradition rations and 5% mangosteen peel flour (C), and traditional rations and 7,5 % mangosteen peel flour (D). Data on performance (milk production) and physiological condition (respiratory frequency, rectal temperature, and heart rate) obtained were analyzed using analysis of variance (ANOVA). The results showed that the addition of mangosteen peel flour as food additive in the rations resulted in variations in the milk production, physiological condition (rectal temperature, heart rate and respiration frequency) and performances (daily weigh gain, food consumption, ration conversion and breast volume) of Etawa crossbreed goats, but significant effect was only observed in the respiration frequency. The addition of 2.5% mangosteen peel flour in the ration caused the best, expected effects on milk production physiological condition and performance of Etawa crossbreed goats.

Modeling the probability distribution of peak discharge for infiltrating hillslopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baiamonte, Giorgio; Singh, Vijay P.

2017-07-01

Hillslope response plays a fundamental role in the prediction of peak discharge at the basin outlet. The peak discharge for the critical duration of rainfall and its probability distribution are needed for designing urban infrastructure facilities. This study derives the probability distribution, denoted as GABS model, by coupling three models: (1) the Green-Ampt model for computing infiltration, (2) the kinematic wave model for computing discharge hydrograph from the hillslope, and (3) the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) model for computing design rainfall intensity. The Hortonian mechanism for runoff generation is employed for computing the surface runoff hydrograph. Since the antecedent soil moisture condition (ASMC) significantly affects the rate of infiltration, its effect on the probability distribution of peak discharge is investigated. Application to a watershed in Sicily, Italy, shows that with the increase of probability, the expected effect of ASMC to increase the maximum discharge diminishes. Only for low values of probability, the critical duration of rainfall is influenced by ASMC, whereas its effect on the peak discharge seems to be less for any probability. For a set of parameters, the derived probability distribution of peak discharge seems to be fitted by the gamma distribution well. Finally, an application to a small watershed, with the aim to test the possibility to arrange in advance the rational runoff coefficient tables to be used for the rational method, and a comparison between peak discharges obtained by the GABS model with those measured in an experimental flume for a loamy-sand soil were carried out.

Modeling Adversaries in Counterterrorism Decisions Using Prospect Theory.

PubMed

Merrick, Jason R W; Leclerc, Philip

2016-04-01

Counterterrorism decisions have been an intense area of research in recent years. Both decision analysis and game theory have been used to model such decisions, and more recently approaches have been developed that combine the techniques of the two disciplines. However, each of these approaches assumes that the attacker is maximizing its utility. Experimental research shows that human beings do not make decisions by maximizing expected utility without aid, but instead deviate in specific ways such as loss aversion or likelihood insensitivity. In this article, we modify existing methods for counterterrorism decisions. We keep expected utility as the defender's paradigm to seek for the rational decision, but we use prospect theory to solve for the attacker's decision to descriptively model the attacker's loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity. We study the effects of this approach in a critical decision, whether to screen containers entering the United States for radioactive materials. We find that the defender's optimal decision is sensitive to the attacker's levels of loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity, meaning that understanding such descriptive decision effects is important in making such decisions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Developing and Testing Rational Models of Message Design.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Keefe, Barbara J.

1992-01-01

Responds to an article in the same issue regarding research methods for conversational cognition. Argues for a noncognitive view of rational models in communication research. Sets out an analysis of the kinds of claims made by rational models of message design. Discusses the implications of this analysis for studies of the cognitive processes…

"Saying no is no easy matter" A qualitative study of competing concerns in rationing decisions in general practice

PubMed Central

Carlsen, Benedicte; Norheim, Ole Frithjof

2005-01-01

Background The general practitioner in Norway is expected to ensure equity and effectiveness through fair rationing. At the same time, due to recent reforms of the Norwegian health care sector, both the role of economic incentives and patient autonomy have been strengthened. Studies indicate that modern general practitioners, both in Norway and in other countries are uncomfortable with the gatekeeper role, but there is little knowledge about how general practitioners experience rationing in practice. Methods Through focus group interviews with Norwegian general practitioners, we explore physicians' attitudes toward factors of influence on medical decision making and how rationing dilemmas are experienced in everyday practice. Results Four major concerns appeared in the group discussions: The obligation to ration health care, professional autonomy, patient autonomy, and competition. A central finding was that the physicians find rationing difficult because saying no in face to face relations often is felt uncomfortable and in conflict with other important objectives for the general practitioner. Conclusion It is important to understand the association between using economic incentives in the management of health care, increasing patient autonomy, and the willingness among physicians to contribute to efficient, fair and legitimate resource allocation. PMID:16281967

Dose-response relationships for carcinogens: a review.

PubMed Central

Zeise, L; Wilson, R; Crouch, E A

1987-01-01

We review the experimental evidence for various shapes of dose-response relationships for carcinogens and summarize those experiments that give the most information on relatively low doses. A brief review of some models is given to illustrate the shapes of dose-response curve expected from them. Our major interest is in the use of dose-response relationships to estimate risks to humans at low doses, and so we pay special attention to experimentally observed and theoretically expected nonlinearities. There are few experimental examples of nonlinear dose-response relations in humans, but this may simply be due to the limitations in the data. The several examples in rodents, even though for high dose data, suggest that nonlinearity is common. In some cases such nonlinearities may be rationalized on the basis of the pharmacokinetics of the test compound or its metabolites. PMID:3311725

Rational models as theories - not standards - of behavior.

PubMed

McKenzie, Craig R.M.

2003-09-01

When people's behavior in laboratory tasks systematically deviates from a rational model, the implication is that real-world performance could be improved by changing the behavior. However, recent studies suggest that behavioral violations of rational models are at least sometimes the result of strategies that are well adapted to the real world (and not necessarily to the laboratory task). Thus, even if one accepts that certain behavior in the laboratory is irrational, compelling evidence that real-world behavior ought to change accordingly is often lacking. It is suggested here that rational models be seen as theories, and not standards, of behavior.

Neurobiological studies of risk assessment: a comparison of expected utility and mean-variance approaches.

PubMed

D'Acremont, Mathieu; Bossaerts, Peter

2008-12-01

When modeling valuation under uncertainty, economists generally prefer expected utility because it has an axiomatic foundation, meaning that the resulting choices will satisfy a number of rationality requirements. In expected utility theory, values are computed by multiplying probabilities of each possible state of nature by the payoff in that state and summing the results. The drawback of this approach is that all state probabilities need to be dealt with separately, which becomes extremely cumbersome when it comes to learning. Finance academics and professionals, however, prefer to value risky prospects in terms of a trade-off between expected reward and risk, where the latter is usually measured in terms of reward variance. This mean-variance approach is fast and simple and greatly facilitates learning, but it impedes assigning values to new gambles on the basis of those of known ones. To date, it is unclear whether the human brain computes values in accordance with expected utility theory or with mean-variance analysis. In this article, we discuss the theoretical and empirical arguments that favor one or the other theory. We also propose a new experimental paradigm that could determine whether the human brain follows the expected utility or the mean-variance approach. Behavioral results of implementation of the paradigm are discussed.

Rational Decisionmaking in Higher Education. An NCHEMS Executive Overview.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chaffee, Ellen Earle

Five models of organizational decision-making are described, and a case study of the rational model as seen in the budget process at Stanford University during the 1970s is presented. Several issues are addressed to help administrators who are interested in increasing the organization's rational decision-making. The five models are as follows: the…

Using Rational-Emotive Therapy to Prevent Classroom Problems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Webber, Jo; Coleman, Maggie

1988-01-01

Teachers are encouraged to utilize rational-emotive therapy to prevent and deal with classroom behavior problems. Rational-emotive therapy is defined, the ABC model of rational thinking briefly explained, types of irrational thinking identified, and suggestions for becoming a rational thinker are offered. Classroom examples are given. (DB)

Does rational selection of training and test sets improve the outcome of QSAR modeling?

PubMed

Martin, Todd M; Harten, Paul; Young, Douglas M; Muratov, Eugene N; Golbraikh, Alexander; Zhu, Hao; Tropsha, Alexander

2012-10-22

Prior to using a quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) model for external predictions, its predictive power should be established and validated. In the absence of a true external data set, the best way to validate the predictive ability of a model is to perform its statistical external validation. In statistical external validation, the overall data set is divided into training and test sets. Commonly, this splitting is performed using random division. Rational splitting methods can divide data sets into training and test sets in an intelligent fashion. The purpose of this study was to determine whether rational division methods lead to more predictive models compared to random division. A special data splitting procedure was used to facilitate the comparison between random and rational division methods. For each toxicity end point, the overall data set was divided into a modeling set (80% of the overall set) and an external evaluation set (20% of the overall set) using random division. The modeling set was then subdivided into a training set (80% of the modeling set) and a test set (20% of the modeling set) using rational division methods and by using random division. The Kennard-Stone, minimal test set dissimilarity, and sphere exclusion algorithms were used as the rational division methods. The hierarchical clustering, random forest, and k-nearest neighbor (kNN) methods were used to develop QSAR models based on the training sets. For kNN QSAR, multiple training and test sets were generated, and multiple QSAR models were built. The results of this study indicate that models based on rational division methods generate better statistical results for the test sets than models based on random division, but the predictive power of both types of models are comparable.

Valence-Dependent Belief Updating: Computational Validation

PubMed Central

Kuzmanovic, Bojana; Rigoux, Lionel

2017-01-01

People tend to update beliefs about their future outcomes in a valence-dependent way: they are likely to incorporate good news and to neglect bad news. However, belief formation is a complex process which depends not only on motivational factors such as the desire for favorable conclusions, but also on multiple cognitive variables such as prior beliefs, knowledge about personal vulnerabilities and resources, and the size of the probabilities and estimation errors. Thus, we applied computational modeling in order to test for valence-induced biases in updating while formally controlling for relevant cognitive factors. We compared biased and unbiased Bayesian models of belief updating, and specified alternative models based on reinforcement learning. The experiment consisted of 80 trials with 80 different adverse future life events. In each trial, participants estimated the base rate of one of these events and estimated their own risk of experiencing the event before and after being confronted with the actual base rate. Belief updates corresponded to the difference between the two self-risk estimates. Valence-dependent updating was assessed by comparing trials with good news (better-than-expected base rates) with trials with bad news (worse-than-expected base rates). After receiving bad relative to good news, participants' updates were smaller and deviated more strongly from rational Bayesian predictions, indicating a valence-induced bias. Model comparison revealed that the biased (i.e., optimistic) Bayesian model of belief updating better accounted for data than the unbiased (i.e., rational) Bayesian model, confirming that the valence of the new information influenced the amount of updating. Moreover, alternative computational modeling based on reinforcement learning demonstrated higher learning rates for good than for bad news, as well as a moderating role of personal knowledge. Finally, in this specific experimental context, the approach based on reinforcement learning was superior to the Bayesian approach. The computational validation of valence-dependent belief updating represents a novel support for a genuine optimism bias in human belief formation. Moreover, the precise control of relevant cognitive variables justifies the conclusion that the motivation to adopt the most favorable self-referential conclusions biases human judgments. PMID:28706499

Valence-Dependent Belief Updating: Computational Validation.

PubMed

Kuzmanovic, Bojana; Rigoux, Lionel

2017-01-01

People tend to update beliefs about their future outcomes in a valence-dependent way: they are likely to incorporate good news and to neglect bad news. However, belief formation is a complex process which depends not only on motivational factors such as the desire for favorable conclusions, but also on multiple cognitive variables such as prior beliefs, knowledge about personal vulnerabilities and resources, and the size of the probabilities and estimation errors. Thus, we applied computational modeling in order to test for valence-induced biases in updating while formally controlling for relevant cognitive factors. We compared biased and unbiased Bayesian models of belief updating, and specified alternative models based on reinforcement learning. The experiment consisted of 80 trials with 80 different adverse future life events. In each trial, participants estimated the base rate of one of these events and estimated their own risk of experiencing the event before and after being confronted with the actual base rate. Belief updates corresponded to the difference between the two self-risk estimates. Valence-dependent updating was assessed by comparing trials with good news (better-than-expected base rates) with trials with bad news (worse-than-expected base rates). After receiving bad relative to good news, participants' updates were smaller and deviated more strongly from rational Bayesian predictions, indicating a valence-induced bias. Model comparison revealed that the biased (i.e., optimistic) Bayesian model of belief updating better accounted for data than the unbiased (i.e., rational) Bayesian model, confirming that the valence of the new information influenced the amount of updating. Moreover, alternative computational modeling based on reinforcement learning demonstrated higher learning rates for good than for bad news, as well as a moderating role of personal knowledge. Finally, in this specific experimental context, the approach based on reinforcement learning was superior to the Bayesian approach. The computational validation of valence-dependent belief updating represents a novel support for a genuine optimism bias in human belief formation. Moreover, the precise control of relevant cognitive variables justifies the conclusion that the motivation to adopt the most favorable self-referential conclusions biases human judgments.

Bioethics and why I hope to live beyond age 75 attaining wisdom!: A rebuttal to Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel's 75 age limit

PubMed Central

Faria, Miguel A.

2015-01-01

American bioethicists have been providing persuasive arguments for rationing medical care via the theory of the necessary “rational allocation of finite health care resources.” Anticipating the need for the drastic rationing of medical care in the U.S. with the implementation of ObamaCare and assisted by various sectors of organized medicine in league with the State, bioethicists have deduced that more ingenious approaches are necessary to convince Americans who have been accustomed to receiving the best medical care that third-party payers are willing to pay for. It is in this context that the individual-based, patient-oriented ethics of Hippocrates, including his fundamental dictum, “First Do No Harm,” have to be supplanted by the utilitarian approach promoted by the bioethicists. And today's foremost proponent of the bioethics movement is Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel. This editorial proposes a rational rebuttal to Dr. Emanuel's proposal to limit life expectancy to age 75 as a rational paradigm to a better life. PMID:25789197

Strategy selection as rational metareasoning.

PubMed

Lieder, Falk; Griffiths, Thomas L

2017-11-01

Many contemporary accounts of human reasoning assume that the mind is equipped with multiple heuristics that could be deployed to perform a given task. This raises the question of how the mind determines when to use which heuristic. To answer this question, we developed a rational model of strategy selection, based on the theory of rational metareasoning developed in the artificial intelligence literature. According to our model people learn to efficiently choose the strategy with the best cost-benefit tradeoff by learning a predictive model of each strategy's performance. We found that our model can provide a unifying explanation for classic findings from domains ranging from decision-making to arithmetic by capturing the variability of people's strategy choices, their dependence on task and context, and their development over time. Systematic model comparisons supported our theory, and 4 new experiments confirmed its distinctive predictions. Our findings suggest that people gradually learn to make increasingly more rational use of fallible heuristics. This perspective reconciles the 2 poles of the debate about human rationality by integrating heuristics and biases with learning and rationality. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Cognitive distance, absorptive capacity and group rationality: a simulation study.

PubMed

Curşeu, Petru Lucian; Krehel, Oleh; Evers, Joep H M; Muntean, Adrian

2014-01-01

We report the results of a simulation study in which we explore the joint effect of group absorptive capacity (as the average individual rationality of the group members) and cognitive distance (as the distance between the most rational group member and the rest of the group) on the emergence of collective rationality in groups. We start from empirical results reported in the literature on group rationality as collective group level competence and use data on real-life groups of four and five to validate a mathematical model. We then use this mathematical model to predict group level scores from a variety of possible group configurations (varying both in cognitive distance and average individual rationality). Our results show that both group competence and cognitive distance are necessary conditions for emergent group rationality. Group configurations, in which the groups become more rational than the most rational group member, are groups scoring low on cognitive distance and scoring high on absorptive capacity.

Cognitive Distance, Absorptive Capacity and Group Rationality: A Simulation Study

PubMed Central

Curşeu, Petru Lucian; Krehel, Oleh; Evers, Joep H. M.; Muntean, Adrian

2014-01-01

We report the results of a simulation study in which we explore the joint effect of group absorptive capacity (as the average individual rationality of the group members) and cognitive distance (as the distance between the most rational group member and the rest of the group) on the emergence of collective rationality in groups. We start from empirical results reported in the literature on group rationality as collective group level competence and use data on real-life groups of four and five to validate a mathematical model. We then use this mathematical model to predict group level scores from a variety of possible group configurations (varying both in cognitive distance and average individual rationality). Our results show that both group competence and cognitive distance are necessary conditions for emergent group rationality. Group configurations, in which the groups become more rational than the most rational group member, are groups scoring low on cognitive distance and scoring high on absorptive capacity. PMID:25314132

Emergence of scale-free characteristics in socio-ecological systems with bounded rationality

PubMed Central

Kasthurirathna, Dharshana; Piraveenan, Mahendra

2015-01-01

Socio–ecological systems are increasingly modelled by games played on complex networks. While the concept of Nash equilibrium assumes perfect rationality, in reality players display heterogeneous bounded rationality. Here we present a topological model of bounded rationality in socio-ecological systems, using the rationality parameter of the Quantal Response Equilibrium. We argue that system rationality could be measured by the average Kullback–-Leibler divergence between Nash and Quantal Response Equilibria, and that the convergence towards Nash equilibria on average corresponds to increased system rationality. Using this model, we show that when a randomly connected socio-ecological system is topologically optimised to converge towards Nash equilibria, scale-free and small world features emerge. Therefore, optimising system rationality is an evolutionary reason for the emergence of scale-free and small-world features in socio-ecological systems. Further, we show that in games where multiple equilibria are possible, the correlation between the scale-freeness of the system and the fraction of links with multiple equilibria goes through a rapid transition when the average system rationality increases. Our results explain the influence of the topological structure of socio–ecological systems in shaping their collective cognitive behaviour, and provide an explanation for the prevalence of scale-free and small-world characteristics in such systems. PMID:26065713

Emergence of scale-free characteristics in socio-ecological systems with bounded rationality.

PubMed

Kasthurirathna, Dharshana; Piraveenan, Mahendra

2015-06-11

Socio-ecological systems are increasingly modelled by games played on complex networks. While the concept of Nash equilibrium assumes perfect rationality, in reality players display heterogeneous bounded rationality. Here we present a topological model of bounded rationality in socio-ecological systems, using the rationality parameter of the Quantal Response Equilibrium. We argue that system rationality could be measured by the average Kullback--Leibler divergence between Nash and Quantal Response Equilibria, and that the convergence towards Nash equilibria on average corresponds to increased system rationality. Using this model, we show that when a randomly connected socio-ecological system is topologically optimised to converge towards Nash equilibria, scale-free and small world features emerge. Therefore, optimising system rationality is an evolutionary reason for the emergence of scale-free and small-world features in socio-ecological systems. Further, we show that in games where multiple equilibria are possible, the correlation between the scale-freeness of the system and the fraction of links with multiple equilibria goes through a rapid transition when the average system rationality increases. Our results explain the influence of the topological structure of socio-ecological systems in shaping their collective cognitive behaviour, and provide an explanation for the prevalence of scale-free and small-world characteristics in such systems.

The Rational Patient and Beyond: Implications for Treatment Adherence in People with Psychiatric Disabilities

PubMed Central

Corrigan, Patrick W.; Rüsch, Nicolas; Ben-Zeev, Dror; Sher, Tamara

2014-01-01

Purpose/Objective Many people with psychiatric disabilities do not benefit from evidence-based practices because they often do not seek out or fully adhere to them. One way psychologists have made sense of this rehabilitation and health decision process and subsequent behaviors (of which adherence might be viewed as one) is by proposing a “rational patient;” namely, that decisions are made deliberatively by weighing perceived costs and benefits of intervention options. Social psychological research, however, suggests limitations to a rational patient theory that impact models of health decision making. Design The research literature was reviewed for studies of rational patient models and alternative theories with empirical support. Special focus was on models specifically related to decisions about rehabilitation strategies for psychiatric disability. Results Notions of the rational patient evolved out of several psychological models including the health belief model, protection motivation theory, and theory of planned behavior. A variety of practice strategies evolved to promote rational decision making. However, research also suggests limitations to rational deliberations of health. (1) Rather than carefully and consciously considered, many health decisions are implicit, potentially occurring outside awareness. (2) Decisions are not always planful; often it is the immediate exigencies of a context rather than an earlier balance of costs and benefits that has the greatest effects. (3) Cool cognitions often do not dictate the process; emotional factors have an important role in health decisions. Each of these limitations suggests additional practice strategies that facilitate a person’s health decisions. Conclusions/Implications Old models of rational decision making need to be supplanted by multi-process models that explain supra-deliberative factors in health decisions and behaviors. PMID:24446671

The rational patient and beyond: implications for treatment adherence in people with psychiatric disabilities.

PubMed

Corrigan, Patrick W; Rüsch, Nicolas; Ben-Zeev, Dror; Sher, Tamara

2014-02-01

Many people with psychiatric disabilities do not benefit from evidence-based practices because they often do not seek out or fully adhere to them. One way psychologists have made sense of this rehabilitation and health decision process and subsequent behaviors (of which adherence might be viewed as one) is by proposing a "rational patient"; namely, that decisions are made deliberatively by weighing perceived costs and benefits of intervention options. Social psychological research, however, suggests limitations to a rational patient theory that impact models of health decision making. The research literature was reviewed for studies of rational patient models and alternative theories with empirical support. Special focus was on models specifically related to decisions about rehabilitation strategies for psychiatric disability. Notions of the rational patient evolved out of several psychological models including the health belief model, protection motivation theory, and theory of planned behavior. A variety of practice strategies evolved to promote rational decision making. However, research also suggests limitations to rational deliberations of health. (1) Rather than carefully and consciously considered, many health decisions are implicit, potentially occurring outside awareness. (2) Decisions are not always planful; often it is the immediate exigencies of a context rather than an earlier balance of costs and benefits that has the greatest effects. (3) Cool cognitions often do not dictate the process; emotional factors have an important role in health decisions. Each of these limitations suggests additional practice strategies that facilitate a person's health decisions. Old models of rational decision making need to be supplanted by multiprocess models that explain supradeliberative factors in health decisions and behaviors. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Network approach for decision making under risk—How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value?

PubMed Central

Chen, Yi-Shin

2018-01-01

Conventional decision theory suggests that under risk, people choose option(s) by maximizing the expected utility. However, theories deal ambiguously with different options that have the same expected utility. A network approach is proposed by introducing ‘goal’ and ‘time’ factors to reduce the ambiguity in strategies for calculating the time-dependent probability of reaching a goal. As such, a mathematical foundation that explains the irrational behavior of choosing an option with a lower expected utility is revealed, which could imply that humans possess rationality in foresight. PMID:29702665

Network approach for decision making under risk-How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value?

PubMed

Pan, Wei; Chen, Yi-Shin

2018-01-01

Conventional decision theory suggests that under risk, people choose option(s) by maximizing the expected utility. However, theories deal ambiguously with different options that have the same expected utility. A network approach is proposed by introducing 'goal' and 'time' factors to reduce the ambiguity in strategies for calculating the time-dependent probability of reaching a goal. As such, a mathematical foundation that explains the irrational behavior of choosing an option with a lower expected utility is revealed, which could imply that humans possess rationality in foresight.

A Rational Analysis of the Selection Task as Optimal Data Selection.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oaksford, Mike; Chater, Nick

1994-01-01

Experimental data on human reasoning in hypothesis-testing tasks is reassessed in light of a Bayesian model of optimal data selection in inductive hypothesis testing. The rational analysis provided by the model suggests that reasoning in such tasks may be rational rather than subject to systematic bias. (SLD)

Evidence accumulation in decision making: unifying the "take the best" and the "rational" models.

PubMed

Lee, Michael D; Cummins, Tarrant D R

2004-04-01

An evidence accumulation model of forced-choice decision making is proposed to unify the fast and frugal take the best (TTB) model and the alternative rational (RAT) model with which it is usually contrasted. The basic idea is to treat the TTB model as a sequential-sampling process that terminates as soon as any evidence in favor of a decision is found and the rational approach as a sequential-sampling process that terminates only when all available information has been assessed. The unified TTB and RAT models were tested in an experiment in which participants learned to make correct judgments for a set of real-world stimuli on the basis of feedback, and were then asked to make additional judgments without feedback for cases in which the TTB and the rational models made different predictions. The results show that, in both experiments, there was strong intraparticipant consistency in the use of either the TTB or the rational model but large interparticipant differences in which model was used. The unified model is shown to be able to capture the differences in decision making across participants in an interpretable way and is preferred by the minimum description length model selection criterion.

Rational approximations to rational models: alternative algorithms for category learning.

PubMed

Sanborn, Adam N; Griffiths, Thomas L; Navarro, Daniel J

2010-10-01

Rational models of cognition typically consider the abstract computational problems posed by the environment, assuming that people are capable of optimally solving those problems. This differs from more traditional formal models of cognition, which focus on the psychological processes responsible for behavior. A basic challenge for rational models is thus explaining how optimal solutions can be approximated by psychological processes. We outline a general strategy for answering this question, namely to explore the psychological plausibility of approximation algorithms developed in computer science and statistics. In particular, we argue that Monte Carlo methods provide a source of rational process models that connect optimal solutions to psychological processes. We support this argument through a detailed example, applying this approach to Anderson's (1990, 1991) rational model of categorization (RMC), which involves a particularly challenging computational problem. Drawing on a connection between the RMC and ideas from nonparametric Bayesian statistics, we propose 2 alternative algorithms for approximate inference in this model. The algorithms we consider include Gibbs sampling, a procedure appropriate when all stimuli are presented simultaneously, and particle filters, which sequentially approximate the posterior distribution with a small number of samples that are updated as new data become available. Applying these algorithms to several existing datasets shows that a particle filter with a single particle provides a good description of human inferences.

Game theoretic analysis of physical protection system design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Canion, B.; Schneider, E.; Bickel, E.

The physical protection system (PPS) of a fictional small modular reactor (SMR) facility have been modeled as a platform for a game theoretic approach to security decision analysis. To demonstrate the game theoretic approach, a rational adversary with complete knowledge of the facility has been modeled attempting a sabotage attack. The adversary adjusts his decisions in response to investments made by the defender to enhance the security measures. This can lead to a conservative physical protection system design. Since defender upgrades were limited by a budget, cost benefit analysis may be conducted upon security upgrades. One approach to cost benefitmore » analysis is the efficient frontier, which depicts the reduction in expected consequence per incremental increase in the security budget.« less

Boundary States and Broken Bulk Symmetries in WAr Minimal Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldeira, Alexandre F.; Wheater, J. F.

We review the free-field formalism for boundary states. The multi-component free-field formalism is then used to study the boundary states of (p',p) rational conformal field theories having a W symmetry of the type Ar. We show how the classification of primary fields for these models is obtained by demanding modular covariance of cylinder amplitudes and that the resulting modular S matrix satisfies all the necessary conditions. Basis states satisfying the boundary conditions are found in the form of coherent states and as expected we find that W violating states can be found for all these models. We construct consistent physical boundary states for all the rank 2 (p + 1,p) models (of which the already known case of the 3-state Potts model is the simplest example) and find that the W violating sector possesses a direct analogue of the Verlinde formula.

Growth and food consumption by tiger muskellunge: Effects of temperature and ration level on bioenergetic model predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chipps, S.R.; Einfalt, L.M.; Wahl, David H.

2000-01-01

We measured growth of age-0 tiger muskellunge as a function of ration size (25, 50, 75, and 100% C(max))and water temperature (7.5-25??C) and compared experimental results with those predicted from a bioenergetic model. Discrepancies between actual and predicted values varied appreciably with water temperature and growth rate. On average, model output overestimated winter consumption rates at 10 and 7.5??C by 113 to 328%, respectively, whereas model predictions in summer and autumn (20-25??C) were in better agreement with actual values (4 to 58%). We postulate that variation in model performance was related to seasonal changes in esocid metabolic rate, which were not accounted for in the bioenergetic model. Moreover, accuracy of model output varied with feeding and growth rate of tiger muskellunge. The model performed poorly for fish fed low rations compared with estimates based on fish fed ad libitum rations and was attributed, in part, to the influence of growth rate on the accuracy of bioenergetic predictions. Based on modeling simulations, we found that errors associated with bioenergetic parameters had more influence on model output when growth rate was low, which is consistent with our observations. In addition, reduced conversion efficiency at high ration levels may contribute to variable model performance, thereby implying that waste losses should be modeled as a function of ration size for esocids. Our findings support earlier field tests of the esocid bioenergetic model and indicate that food consumption is generally overestimated by the model, particularly in winter months and for fish exhibiting low feeding and growth rates.

Reasoning or reacting to others? How consumers use the rationality of other consumers.

PubMed

Pelzmann, Linda; Hudnik, Urska; Miklautz, Michaela

2005-11-15

Consumers adapt their behavior to the structure of the information available in the environment where they form expectations. One factor in people's environments is other people. "Others" are a significant source of information and means of orientating oneself. In conditions such as uncertainty, insecurity, anxiety but also euphoria, it is "the others" who provide market participants with coordinates. The purpose of this paper is to pass forward an approach that relates to consumers' other-directedness and to demonstrate in what ways consumers use the rationality of other consumers.

Models for Rational Number Bases

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pedersen, Jean J.; Armbruster, Frank O.

1975-01-01

This article extends number bases to negative integers, then to positive rationals and finally to negative rationals. Methods and rules for operations in positive and negative rational bases greater than one or less than negative one are summarized in tables. Sample problems are explained and illustrated. (KM)

Rational choice and the political bases of changing Israeli counterinsurgency strategy.

PubMed

Brym, Robert J; Andersen, Robert

2011-09-01

Israeli counterinsurgency doctrine holds that the persistent use of credible threat and disproportionate military force results in repeated victories that eventually teach the enemy the futility of aggression. The doctrine thus endorses classical rational choice theory's claim that narrow cost-benefit calculations shape fixed action rationales. This paper assesses whether Israel's strategic practice reflects its counterinsurgency doctrine by exploring the historical record and the association between Israeli and Palestinian deaths due to low-intensity warfare. In contrast to the expectations of classical rational choice theory, the evidence suggests that institutional, cultural and historical forces routinely override simple cost-benefit calculations. Changing domestic and international circumstances periodically cause revisions in counterinsurgency strategy. Credible threat and disproportionate military force lack the predicted long-term effect. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2011.

Rational action selection in 1½- to 3-year-olds following an extended training experience.

PubMed

Klossek, Ulrike M H; Dickinson, Anthony

2012-02-01

Previous studies failed to find evidence for rational action selection in children under 2 years of age. The current study investigated whether younger children required more training to encode the relevant causal relationships. Children between 1½ and 3 years of age were trained over two sessions to perform actions on a touch-sensitive screen to obtain video clips as outcomes. Subsequently, a visual habituation procedure was employed to devalue one of the training outcomes. As in previous studies, 2- and 3-year-olds chose actions associated with an expected valued outcome significantly more often during a subsequent choice test. Moreover, analysis of children's first responses in the post-devaluation test revealed evidence of rational action selection even in the youngest age group (18-23 months). Consistent with dual-process accounts of action control, the findings support the view that the ability to make rational action choices develops gradually. 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The anchoring bias reflects rational use of cognitive resources.

PubMed

Lieder, Falk; Griffiths, Thomas L; M Huys, Quentin J; Goodman, Noah D

2018-02-01

Cognitive biases, such as the anchoring bias, pose a serious challenge to rational accounts of human cognition. We investigate whether rational theories can meet this challenge by taking into account the mind's bounded cognitive resources. We asked what reasoning under uncertainty would look like if people made rational use of their finite time and limited cognitive resources. To answer this question, we applied a mathematical theory of bounded rationality to the problem of numerical estimation. Our analysis led to a rational process model that can be interpreted in terms of anchoring-and-adjustment. This model provided a unifying explanation for ten anchoring phenomena including the differential effect of accuracy motivation on the bias towards provided versus self-generated anchors. Our results illustrate the potential of resource-rational analysis to provide formal theories that can unify a wide range of empirical results and reconcile the impressive capacities of the human mind with its apparently irrational cognitive biases.

Modeling Addictive Consumption as an Infectious Disease*

PubMed Central

Alamar, Benjamin; Glantz, Stanton A.

2011-01-01

The dominant model of addictive consumption in economics is the theory of rational addiction. The addict in this model chooses how much they are going to consume based upon their level of addiction (past consumption), the current benefits and all future costs. Several empirical studies of cigarette sales and price data have found a correlation between future prices and consumption and current consumption. These studies have argued that the correlation validates the rational addiction model and invalidates any model in which future consumption is not considered. An alternative to the rational addiction model is one in which addiction spreads through a population as if it were an infectious disease, as supported by the large body of empirical research of addictive behaviors. In this model an individual's probability of becoming addicted to a substance is linked to the behavior of their parents, friends and society. In the infectious disease model current consumption is based only on the level of addiction and current costs. Price and consumption data from a simulation of the infectious disease model showed a qualitative match to the results of the rational addiction model. The infectious disease model can explain all of the theoretical results of the rational addiction model with the addition of explaining initial consumption of the addictive good. PMID:21339848

Bounded rationality alters the dynamics of paediatric immunization acceptance

PubMed Central

Oraby, Tamer; Bauch, Chris T.

2015-01-01

Interactions between disease dynamics and vaccinating behavior have been explored in many coupled behavior-disease models. Cognitive effects such as risk perception, framing, and subjective probabilities of adverse events can be important determinants of the vaccinating behaviour, and represent departures from the pure “rational” decision model that are often described as “bounded rationality”. However, the impact of such cognitive effects in the context of paediatric infectious disease vaccines has received relatively little attention. Here, we develop a disease-behavior model that accounts for bounded rationality through prospect theory. We analyze the model and compare its predictions to a reduced model that lacks bounded rationality. We find that, in general, introducing bounded rationality increases the dynamical richness of the model and makes it harder to eliminate a paediatric infectious disease. In contrast, in other cases, a low cost, highly efficacious vaccine can be refused, even when the rational decision model predicts acceptance. Injunctive social norms can prevent vaccine refusal, if vaccine acceptance is sufficiently high in the beginning of the vaccination campaign. Cognitive processes can have major impacts on the predictions of behaviour-disease models, and further study of such processes in the context of vaccination is thus warranted. PMID:26035413

Strong second harmonic generation in two-dimensional ferroelectric IV-monochalcogenides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panday, Suman Raj; Fregoso, Benjamin M.

2017-11-01

The two-dimensional ferroelectrics GeS, GeSe, SnS and SnSe are expected to have large spontaneous in-plane electric polarization and enhanced shift-current response. Using density functional methods, we show that these materials also exhibit the largest effective second harmonic generation reported so far. It can reach magnitudes up to 10~nm~V-1 which is about an order of magnitude larger than that of prototypical GaAs. To rationalize this result we model the optical response with a simple one-dimensional two-band model along the spontaneous polarization direction. Within this model the second-harmonic generation tensor is proportional to the shift-current response tensor. The large shift current and second harmonic responses of GeS, GeSe, SnS and SnSe make them promising non-linear materials for optoelectronic applications.

Modeling Humans as Reinforcement Learners: How to Predict Human Behavior in Multi-Stage Games

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Ritchie; Wolpert, David H.; Backhaus, Scott; Bent, Russell; Bono, James; Tracey, Brendan

2011-01-01

This paper introduces a novel framework for modeling interacting humans in a multi-stage game environment by combining concepts from game theory and reinforcement learning. The proposed model has the following desirable characteristics: (1) Bounded rational players, (2) strategic (i.e., players account for one anothers reward functions), and (3) is computationally feasible even on moderately large real-world systems. To do this we extend level-K reasoning to policy space to, for the first time, be able to handle multiple time steps. This allows us to decompose the problem into a series of smaller ones where we can apply standard reinforcement learning algorithms. We investigate these ideas in a cyber-battle scenario over a smart power grid and discuss the relationship between the behavior predicted by our model and what one might expect of real human defenders and attackers.

Is Educational Policy Making Rational--and What Would that Mean, Anyway?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bredo, Eric

2009-01-01

In "Moderating the Debate: Rationality and the Promise of American Education," Michael Feuer raises concerns about the consequences of basing educational policy on the model of rational choice drawn from economics. Policy making would be better and more realistic, he suggests, if it were based on a newer procedural model drawn from cognitive…

Examining intentions to use CoQ10 amongst breast cancer patients.

PubMed

Hill, Gina Jarman; Shriver, Brent J; Arnett, Dennis B

2006-01-01

To determine factors that influence breast cancer patients' intentions to supplement with CoQ10. A survey based upon the expanded rational expectations intentions model was completed by breast cancer outpatients (N=160). A significantly positive relationship existed between referent other (the influence specific people have in terms of an individual's behavior) and subjective norm (subject's perception of how people view a behavior). Beliefs, referent other, attitude, and subjective norm did have a significant effect on intention to use CoQ10. Health practitioners may address supplementation with breast cancer patients with a better understanding of what factors impact supplement use.

Cognitive Rationality and Its Logic-Mathematical Language

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Masalova, Svetlana

2012-01-01

The article deals with the cognitive (flexible) rationality, combining rational and irrational moments of the scientific search of the cognizing subject. Linguo-cognitive model of the concept as the flexible regulative rationality reveals the activity of the cognitive processes and the mentality of the epistemological-ontic subject, its leading…

Rational Analyses of Information Foraging on the Web

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pirolli, Peter

2005-01-01

This article describes rational analyses and cognitive models of Web users developed within information foraging theory. This is done by following the rational analysis methodology of (a) characterizing the problems posed by the environment, (b) developing rational analyses of behavioral solutions to those problems, and (c) developing cognitive…

Book Selection, Collection Development, and Bounded Rationality.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwartz, Charles A.

1989-01-01

Reviews previously proposed schemes of classical rationality in book selection, describes new approaches to rational choice behavior, and presents a model of book selection based on bounded rationality in a garbage can decision process. The role of tacit knowledge and symbolic content in the selection process are also discussed. (102 references)…

Rational Behavior Skills: A Teaching Sequence for Students with Emotional Disabilities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patton, Patricia Lucey

1995-01-01

Rational behavior training is a proactive teaching model concerned with helping students with behavior disorders or serious emotional disturbances develop rational thinking and appropriate social skills. Describes a seven-session sequence for teaching rational behavior skills in a middle school setting. Pre- and posttest data revealed significant…

The limited impact of indeterminacy for healthcare rationing: how indeterminacy problems show the need for a hybrid theory, but nothing more.

PubMed

Herlitz, Anders

2016-01-01

A notorious debate in the ethics of healthcare rationing concerns whether to address rationing decisions with substantial principles or with a procedural approach. One major argument in favour of procedural approaches is that substantial principles are indeterminate so that we can reasonably disagree about how to apply them. To deal with indeterminacy, we need a just decision process. In this paper I argue that it is a mistake to abandon substantial principles just because they are indeterminate. It is true that reasonable substantial principles designed to deal with healthcare rationing can be expected to be indeterminate. Yet, the indeterminacy is only partial. In some situations we can fully determine what to do in light of the principles, in some situations we cannot. The conclusion to draw from this fact is not that we need to develop procedural approaches to healthcare rationing, but rather that we need a more complex theory in which both substantial principles and procedural approaches are needed. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Design and Preparation of Supported Au Catalyst with Enhanced Catalytic Activities by Rationally Positioning Au Nanoparticles on Anatase.

PubMed

Wang, Liang; Wang, Hong; Rice, Andrew E; Zhang, Wei; Li, Xiaokun; Chen, Mingshu; Meng, Xiangju; Lewis, James P; Xiao, Feng-Shou

2015-06-18

A synergistic effect between individual components is crucial for increasing the activity of metal/metal oxide catalysts. The greatest challenge is how to control the synergistic effect to obtain enhanced catalytic performance. Through density functional theory calculations of model Au/TiO2 catalysts, it is suggested that there is strong interaction between Au nanoparticles and Ti species at the edge/corner sites of anatase, which is favorable for the formation of stable oxygen vacancies. Motivated by this theoretical analysis, we have rationally prepared Au nanoparticles attached to edge/corner sites of anatase support (Au/TiO2-EC), confirmed by their HR-TEM images. As expected, this strong interaction is well characterized by Raman, UV-visible, and XPS techniques. Very interestingly, compared with conventional Au catalysts, Au/TiO2-EC exhibits superior catalytic activity in the oxidations using O2. Our approach to controlling Au nanoparticle positioning on anatase to obtain enhanced catalytic activity offers an efficient strategy for developing more novel supported metal catalysts.

The ecological rationality of state-dependent valuation.

PubMed

McNamara, J M; Trimmer, P C; Houston, A I

2012-01-01

Laboratory studies on a range of animals have identified a bias that seems to violate basic principles of rational behavior: a preference is shown for feeding options that previously provided food when reserves were low, even though another option had been found to give the same reward with less delay. The bias presents a challenge to normative models of decision making (which only take account of expected rewards and the state of the animal at the decision time). To understand the behavior, we take a broad ecological perspective and consider how valuation mechanisms evolve when the best action depends upon the environment being faced. We show that in a changing and uncertain environment, state-dependent valuation can be favored by natural selection: Individuals should allow their hunger to affect learning for future decisions. The valuation mechanism that typically evolves produces the kind of behavior seen in standard laboratory tests. By providing an insight into why learning should be affected by the state of an individual, we provide a basis for understanding psychological principles in terms of an animal's ecology.

Benchmarking Density Functional Theory Based Methods To Model NiOOH Material Properties: Hubbard and van der Waals Corrections vs Hybrid Functionals.

PubMed

Zaffran, Jeremie; Caspary Toroker, Maytal

2016-08-09

NiOOH has recently been used to catalyze water oxidation by way of electrochemical water splitting. Few experimental data are available to rationalize the successful catalytic capability of NiOOH. Thus, theory has a distinctive role for studying its properties. However, the unique layered structure of NiOOH is associated with the presence of essential dispersion forces within the lattice. Hence, the choice of an appropriate exchange-correlation functional within Density Functional Theory (DFT) is not straightforward. In this work, we will show that standard DFT is sufficient to evaluate the geometry, but DFT+U and hybrid functionals are required to calculate the oxidation states. Notably, the benefit of DFT with van der Waals correction is marginal. Furthermore, only hybrid functionals succeed in opening a bandgap, and such methods are necessary to study NiOOH electronic structure. In this work, we expect to give guidelines to theoreticians dealing with this material and to present a rational approach in the choice of the DFT method of calculation.

The influences and neural correlates of past and present during gambling in humans.

PubMed

Sacré, Pierre; Subramanian, Sandya; Kerr, Matthew S D; Kahn, Kevin; Johnson, Matthew A; Bulacio, Juan; González-Martínez, Jorge A; Sarma, Sridevi V; Gale, John T

2017-12-07

During financial decision-making tasks, humans often make "rational" decisions, where they maximize expected reward. However, this rationality may compete with a bias that reflects past outcomes. That is, if one just lost money or won money, this may impact future decisions. It is unclear how past outcomes influence future decisions in humans, and how neural circuits encode present and past information. In this study, six human subjects performed a financial decision-making task while we recorded local field potentials from multiple brain structures. We constructed a model for each subject characterizing bets on each trial as a function of present and past information. The models suggest that some patients are more influenced by previous trial outcomes (i.e., previous return and risk) than others who stick to more fixed decision strategies. In addition, past return and present risk modulated with the activity in the cuneus; while present return and past risk modulated with the activity in the superior temporal gyrus and the angular gyrus, respectively. Our findings suggest that these structures play a role in decision-making beyond their classical functions by incorporating predictions and risks in humans' decision strategy, and provide new insight into how humans link their internal biases to decisions.

When is it rational to participate in a clinical trial? A game theory approach incorporating trust, regret and guilt.

PubMed

Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hozo, Iztok

2012-06-22

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) remain an indispensable form of human experimentation as a vehicle for discovery of new treatments. However, since their inception RCTs have raised ethical concerns. The ethical tension has revolved around "duties to individuals" vs. "societal value" of RCTs. By asking current patients "to sacrifice for the benefit of future patients" we risk subjugating our duties to patients' best interest to the utilitarian goal for the good of others. This tension creates a key dilemma: when is it rational, from the perspective of the trial patients and researchers (as societal representatives of future patients), to enroll in RCTs? We employed the trust version of the prisoner's dilemma since interaction between the patient and researcher in the setting of a clinical trial is inherently based on trust. We also took into account that the patient may have regretted his/her decision to participate in the trial, while a researcher may feel guilty because he/she abused the patient's trust. We found that under typical circumstances of clinical research, most patients can be expected not to trust researchers, and most researchers can be expected to abuse the patients' trust. The most significant factor determining trust was the success of experimental or standard treatments, respectively. The more that a researcher believes the experimental treatment will be successful, the more incentive the researcher has to abuse trust. The analysis was sensitive to the assumptions about the utilities related to success and failure of therapies that are tested in RCTs. By varying all variables in the Monte Carlo analysis we found that, on average, the researcher can be expected to honor a patient's trust 41% of the time, while the patient is inclined to trust the researcher 69% of the time. Under assumptions of our model, enrollment into RCTs represents a rational strategy that can meet both patients' and researchers' interests simultaneously 19% of the time. There is an inherent ethical dilemma in the conduct of RCTs. The factors that hamper full co-operation between patients and researchers in the conduct of RCTs can be best addressed by: a) having more reliable estimates on the probabilities that new vs. established treatments will be successful, b) improving transparency in the clinical trial system to ensure fulfillment of "the social contract" between patients and researchers.

Modeling pedestrian shopping behavior using principles of bounded rationality: model comparison and validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Wei; Timmermans, Harry

2011-06-01

Models of geographical choice behavior have been dominantly based on rational choice models, which assume that decision makers are utility-maximizers. Rational choice models may be less appropriate as behavioral models when modeling decisions in complex environments in which decision makers may simplify the decision problem using heuristics. Pedestrian behavior in shopping streets is an example. We therefore propose a modeling framework for pedestrian shopping behavior incorporating principles of bounded rationality. We extend three classical heuristic rules (conjunctive, disjunctive and lexicographic rule) by introducing threshold heterogeneity. The proposed models are implemented using data on pedestrian behavior in Wang Fujing Street, the city center of Beijing, China. The models are estimated and compared with multinomial logit models and mixed logit models. Results show that the heuristic models are the best for all the decisions that are modeled. Validation tests are carried out through multi-agent simulation by comparing simulated spatio-temporal agent behavior with the observed pedestrian behavior. The predictions of heuristic models are slightly better than those of the multinomial logit models.

Non-parametric identification of multivariable systems: A local rational modeling approach with application to a vibration isolation benchmark

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voorhoeve, Robbert; van der Maas, Annemiek; Oomen, Tom

2018-05-01

Frequency response function (FRF) identification is often used as a basis for control systems design and as a starting point for subsequent parametric system identification. The aim of this paper is to develop a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) local parametric modeling approach for FRF identification of lightly damped mechanical systems with improved speed and accuracy. The proposed method is based on local rational models, which can efficiently handle the lightly-damped resonant dynamics. A key aspect herein is the freedom in the multivariable rational model parametrizations. Several choices for such multivariable rational model parametrizations are proposed and investigated. For systems with many inputs and outputs the required number of model parameters can rapidly increase, adversely affecting the performance of the local modeling approach. Therefore, low-order model structures are investigated. The structure of these low-order parametrizations leads to an undesired directionality in the identification problem. To address this, an iterative local rational modeling algorithm is proposed. As a special case recently developed SISO algorithms are recovered. The proposed approach is successfully demonstrated on simulations and on an active vibration isolation system benchmark, confirming good performance of the method using significantly less parameters compared with alternative approaches.

Organizational Behavior in Disasters and Implications for Disaster Planning. Volume 1, Number 2

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-07-01

the personal challenges presented by the disaster. There may be expectations of panic, but what almost always occurs is rational behavior . For many...Similarly, there may be expectations of disorder, but what appears is a great deal of prosocial instead of antisocial behavior . To inexperienced...FEMA 104/July 1986 (5-1 Organizational Behavior in Disasters and IMpliCations for Disaster Planning - ii;~1COPBy Enrico L. Quarante~l , Ph. D

Quantum-like Viewpoint on the Complexity and Randomness of the Financial Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choustova, Olga

In economics and financial theory, analysts use random walk and more general martingale techniques to model behavior of asset prices, in particular share prices on stock markets, currency exchange rates and commodity prices. This practice has its basis in the presumption that investors act rationally and without bias, and that at any moment they estimate the value of an asset based on future expectations. Under these conditions, all existing information affects the price, which changes only when new information comes out. By definition, new information appears randomly and influences the asset price randomly. Corresponding continuous time models are based on stochastic processes (this approach was initiated in the thesis of [4]), see, e.g., the books of [33] and [37] for historical and mathematical details.

Considering situational and dispositional approaches to rational self-interest: an extension and response to de Dreu (2006).

PubMed

Meglino, Bruce M; Korsgaard, M Audrey

2006-11-01

The authors respond to C. K. W. De Dreu's (2006) critique of their article (B. M. Meglino & M. A. Korsgaard, 2004) published in the special section on Theoretical Models and Conceptual Analyses of the Journal of Applied Psychology. They maintain that De Dreu misinterprets their definitions and the psychological processes they addressed and thus raises a number of issues that are not relevant to their model. Meglino and Korsgaard's model focuses on the distinction between rational self-interest and other orientation, whereas the approach taken by De Dreu focuses on the distinction between rational self-interest and collective rationality. In this response, the authors clarify this distinction, address discrepancies between these two approaches, consider the effect of goals and rationality on other orientated behavior, and suggest directions for future research. (c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved

The impact of chief executive officer optimism on hospital strategic decision making.

PubMed

Langabeer, James R; Yao, Emery

2012-01-01

Previous strategic decision making research has focused mostly on the analytical positioning approach, which broadly emphasizes an alignment between rationality and the external environment. In this study, we propose that hospital chief executive optimism (or the general tendency to expect positive future outcomes) will moderate the relationship between comprehensively rational decision-making process and organizational performance. The purpose of this study was to explore the impact that dispositional optimism has on the well-established relationship between rational decision-making processes and organizational performance. Specifically, we hypothesized that optimism will moderate the relationship between the level of rationality and the organization's performance. We further suggest that this relationship will be more negative for those with high, as opposed to low, optimism. We surveyed 168 hospital CEOs and used moderated hierarchical regression methods to statically test our hypothesis. On the basis of a survey study of 168 hospital CEOs, we found evidence of a complex interplay of optimism in the rationality-organizational performance relationship. More specifically, we found that the two-way interactions between optimism and rational decision making were negatively associated with performance and that where optimism was the highest, the rationality-performance relationship was the most negative. Executive optimism was positively associated with organizational performance. We also found that greater perceived environmental turbulence, when interacting with optimism, did not have a significant interaction effect on the rationality-performance relationship. These findings suggest potential for broader participation in strategic processes and the use of organizational development techniques that assess executive disposition and traits for recruitment processes, because CEO optimism influences hospital-level processes. Research implications include incorporating greater use of behavior and cognition constructs to better depict decision-making processes in complex organizations like hospitals.

Genetic Factors of Individual Differences in Decision Making in Economic Behavior: A Japanese Twin Study using the Allais Problem.

PubMed

Shikishima, Chizuru; Hiraishi, Kai; Yamagata, Shinji; Ando, Juko; Okada, Mitsuhiro

2015-01-01

Why does decision making differ among individuals? People sometimes make seemingly inconsistent decisions with lower expected (monetary) utility even when objective information of probabilities and reward are provided. It is noteworthy, however, that a certain proportion of people do not provide anomalous responses, choosing the alternatives with higher expected utility, thus appearing to be more "rational." We investigated the genetic and environmental influences on these types of individual differences in decision making using a classical Allais problem task. Participants were 1,199 Japanese adult twins aged 20-47. Univariate genetic analysis revealed that approximately a third of the Allais problem response variance was explained by genetic factors and the rest by environmental factors unique to individuals and measurement error. The environmental factor shared between families did not contribute to the variance. Subsequent multivariate genetic analysis clarified that decision making using the expected utility theory was associated with general intelligence and that the association was largely mediated by the same genetic factor. We approach the mechanism underlying two types of "rational" decision making from the perspective of genetic correlations with cognitive abilities.

Navigating the poverty of heroin addiction treatment and recovery opportunity in Kenya: access work, self-care and rationed expectations.

PubMed

Rhodes, Tim; Ndimbii, James; Guise, Andy; Cullen, Lucy; Ayon, Sylvia

2015-01-01

Drawing on the analyses of qualitative interview accounts of people who inject heroin in Kenya, we describe the narration of addiction treatment access and recovery desire in conditions characterised by a 'poverty of drug treatment opportunity'. We observe the performance of addiction recovery narrative in the face of heavy social constraints limiting access to care. Fee-based residential rehabilitation ('rehab') is the only treatment locally available and inaccessible to most. Its recovery potential is doubted, given normative expectations of relapse. Treating drug use is a product of tightly bounded agency. Individuals enact strategies to maximise their slim chances of treatment access ('access work'), develop self-care alternatives when these fail to materialise and ration their care expectations. The use of rehab as a primary means of respite and harm reduction rather than recovery and the individuation of care in the absence of an enabling recovery environment are key characteristics of drug treatment experience. The recent incorporation of 'harm reduction' into policy discourses may trouble the primacy of recovery narrative in addiction treatment and in how treatment desires are voiced. The diversification of drug treatments in combination with social interventions enabling their access are fundamental.

Are We Rational or Not? The Exploration of Voter Choices during the 2016 Presidential and Legislative Elections in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Lee, I-Ching; Chen, Eva E.; Yen, Nai-Shing; Tsai, Chia-Hung; Cheng, Hsu-Po

2017-01-01

The decisions voters make—and whether those decisions are rational—have profound implications on the functionality of a democratic society. In this study, we delineated two criteria in evaluating voter rationality and weigh evidence of voter rationality versus irrationality. Furthermore, we compared models in two different elections in Taiwan to explore the reasons behind the irrational choices voters can make. Survey questions and an implicit association test (IAT) were administered prior to both elections among 197 voters in Taipei. These voters then reported their actual votes post-election. Model testing suggests that voters often are rational, but are more likely to make irrational choices in more important elections. Our findings indicate that voters generally aim to be diligent and to optimize their choices, even if they make less rational choices in the end. Further implications regarding elections and human rationality are discussed. PMID:29075215

Premarital Childbearing Decision Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oakley, Deborah

1985-01-01

Investigated premarital decision-making among community college students. Results concluded that premarital decisions about the number of children to have is associated with certain characteristics of the rational-comprehensive thinker, but is also associated with non-normative childbearing expectations, whether they are above or below the popular…

Models for Rational Decision Making. Analysis of Literature and Selected Bibliography. Analysis and Bibliography Series, No. 6.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hall, John S.

This review analyzes the trend in educational decision making to replace hierarchical authority structures with more rational models for decision making drawn from management science. Emphasis is also placed on alternatives to a hierarchical decision-making model, including governing models, union models, and influence models. A 54-item…

A dynamical system for interacting flapping swimmers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oza, Anand; Ramananarivo, Sophie; Ristroph, Leif; Shelley, Michael

2015-11-01

We present the results of a theoretical investigation into the dynamics of interacting flapping swimmers. Our study is motivated by the recent experiments of Becker et al., who studied a one-dimensional array of self-propelled flapping wings that swim within each other's wakes in a water tank. They discovered that the system adopts certain ``schooling modes'' characterized by specific spatial phase relationships between swimmers. To rationalize these phenomena, we develop a discrete dynamical system in which the swimmers are modeled as heaving airfoils that shed point vortices during each flapping cycle. We then apply our model to recent experiments in the Applied Math Lab, in which two tandem flapping airfoils are free to choose both their speed and relative positions. We expect that our model may be used to understand how schooling behavior is influenced by hydrodynamics in more general contexts. Thanks to the NSF for its support.

A meta-analysis of the relationship between rational beliefs and psychological distress.

PubMed

Oltean, Horea-Radu; David, Daniel Ovidiu

2018-06-01

 Rational emotive behavior therapy (REBT) model of psychological health assumes that rational beliefs cause functional emotions and adaptive behavior, but the presumed role of rational beliefs as protective factor against psychological distress/disorders is still in debate. An important step in validating an evidence-based therapy is to investigate the underling theoretical assumptions. Thus, the aim of the present meta-analysis is to investigate the direction and magnitude of the relationship between rational beliefs and psychological distress.  Our search identified 26 studies that met our criteria. We evaluated the effect size using the random-effects model and we tested the moderator role of several variables. The overall results revealed a medium negative association between rational beliefs and psychological distress, r = -0.31. The strongest association was found for unconditional acceptance beliefs (r = -0.41). The results add empirical evidence for the underling theory of REBT and revealed that the strength of the association between rational beliefs and distress is robust for a wide range of emotional problems. Therefore, rational beliefs could be a trans-diagnostic protective factor against distress. Moreover, results emphasized that rational beliefs type is an important factor, suggesting an increased focus in therapy on the developing of unconditional acceptance and self-acceptance beliefs. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The DTIC Review. Volume 1, Number 1: Nuclear Proliferation and Deterrence in a Changing Political World

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-08-01

Mathematical Expectation" by David Schmeidler and Peter Wakker, "Expected Utility Hypothesis" by Mark Machina, "Rational Behavior" by Amartya Sen ...other regional adversaries are not secure and, hence, are highly sen - sitive to this form of pressure. The question is whether such threats can be used...Warsaw Pact." Moreover, conventional military capabilities are constantly changing through advances in armor, avionics, sen - sors, munitions. etc

Cultural values: can they explain self-reported health?

PubMed

Roudijk, Bram; Donders, Rogier; Stalmeier, Peep

2017-06-01

Self-reported health (SRH) is a measure widely used in health research and population studies. Differences in SRH have been observed between countries and cultural values have been hypothesized to partly explain such differences. Cultural values can be operationalized by two cultural dimensions using the World Values Survey (WVS), namely the traditional/rational-secular and the survival/self-expression dimension. We investigate whether there is an association between the WVS cultural dimensions and SRH, both within and between countries. Data from 51 countries in the WVS is used and combined with macroeconomic data from the Worldbank database. The association between SRH and the WVS cultural dimensions is tested within each of the 51 countries and multilevel mixed models are used to test differences between these countries. Socio-demographic and macroeconomic variables are used to correct for non-cultural variables related to SRH. Within countries, the survival/self-expression dimension was positively associated with SRH, while in most countries there was a negative association for the traditional/rational-secular dimension. Values range between 4 and 17% within countries. Further analyses show that the associations within countries and between countries are similar. Controlling for macroeconomic and socio-demographic factors did not change our results. The WVS cultural dimensions predict SRH within and between countries. Contrary to our expectations, traditional/rational-secular values were negatively associated with SRH. As SRH is associated with cultural values between countries, cultural values could be considered when interpreting SRH between countries.

Beyond rational imitation: learning arbitrary means actions from communicative demonstrations.

PubMed

Király, Ildikó; Csibra, Gergely; Gergely, György

2013-10-01

The principle of rationality has been invoked to explain that infants expect agents to perform the most efficient means action to attain a goal. It has also been demonstrated that infants take into account the efficiency of observed actions to achieve a goal outcome when deciding whether to reenact a specific behavior or not. It is puzzling, however, that they also tend to imitate an apparently suboptimal unfamiliar action even when they can bring about the same outcome more efficiently by applying a more rational action alternative available to them. We propose that this apparently paradoxical behavior is explained by infants' interpretation of action demonstrations as communicative manifestations of novel and culturally relevant means actions to be acquired, and we present empirical evidence supporting this proposal. In Experiment 1, we found that 14-month-olds reenacted novel arbitrary means actions only following a communicative demonstration. Experiment 2 showed that infants' inclination to reproduce communicatively manifested novel actions is restricted to behaviors they can construe as goal-directed instrumental acts. The study also provides evidence that infants' reenactment of the demonstrated novel actions reflects epistemic motives rather than purely social motives. We argue that ostensive communication enables infants to represent the teleological structure of novel actions even when the causal relations between means and end are cognitively opaque and apparently violate the efficiency expectation derived from the principle of rationality. This new account of imitative learning of novel means shows how the teleological stance and natural pedagogy--two separate cognitive adaptations to interpret instrumental versus communicative actions--are integrated as a system for learning socially constituted instrumental knowledge in humans. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Beyond rational imitation: Learning arbitrary means actions from communicative demonstrations

PubMed Central

Király, Ildikó; Csibra, Gergely; Gergely, György

2015-01-01

The principle of rationality has been invoked to explain that infants expect agents to perform the most efficient means action to attain a goal. It has also been demonstrated that infants take into account the efficiency of observed actions to achieve a goal outcome when deciding whether to re-enact a specific behavior or not. Puzzlingly, however, they also tend to imitate an apparently suboptimal unfamiliar action even when they can bring about the same outcome more efficiently by applying a more rational action alternative available to them. We propose that this apparently paradoxical behavior is explained by infants' interpretation of action demonstrations as communicative manifestations of novel and culturally relevant means actions to be acquired, and present empirical evidence supporting this proposal. In Experiment 1, we found that 14-month-old infants re-enacted novel arbitrary means actions only following a communicative demonstration. Experiment 2 showed that infants inclination to reproduce communicatively manifested novel actions is restricted to behaviors they can construe as goal-directed instrumental acts. The study also provides evidence that their re-enactment of the demonstrated novel actions reflects epistemic rather than purely social motives. We argue that ostensive communication enables infants to represent the teleological structure of novel actions even when the causal relations between means and end are cognitively opaque and apparently violate the efficiency expectation derived from the principle of rationality. This new account of imitative learning of novel means shows how the teleological stance and natural pedagogy – two separate cognitive adaptations to interpret instrumental vs. communicative actions – are integrated as a system for learning socially constituted instrumental knowledge in humans. PMID:23499323

Treatment limitation decisions under uncertainty: the value of subsequent euthanasia.

PubMed

Savulescu, Julian

1994-01-01

This paper examines how decisions to limit treatment to critically ill patients under uncertainty can be made rationally. Expected utility theory offers one way of making rational decisions under uncertainty. One problem with using this approach is that we may not know the value of each option. One rational course open is to treat until further information becomes available. However, treatment can limit the range of options open. With treatment, a patient may recover such that he no longer requires life-supporting treatment. However, his life may be not worth living. If active euthanasia of 'non-terminal' conditions is prohibited, the option of dying will no longer be available. Taking a rational 'wait and see' course may result in being trapped within an unbearable life. On the other hand, sometimes present practice 'lets nature take its course'. Critically ill patients are allowed to die because it is believed that their lives will be not worth living. It is likely that some patients are allowed to die when there is some objective chance of worthwhile future life. This paper argues that a policy of treating critically ill patients until the nature of future options can be better evaluated, in company with an offer of subsequent euthanasia where appropriate, allows a more rational and humane approach to treatment limitation decisions under uncertainty.

Eco-efficiency model for evaluating feedlot rations in the Great Plains, United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Environmental impacts attributable to beef feedlot production provide an opportunity for economically-linked environmental efficiency optimization. An adaptable eco-efficiency model was developed to assess the impacts of dietary rations. The hybridized model utilized California Net Energy System m...

Decision-making competence predicts domain-specific risk attitudes

PubMed Central

Weller, Joshua A.; Ceschi, Andrea; Randolph, Caleb

2015-01-01

Decision-making competence (DMC) reflects individual differences in rational responding across several classic behavioral decision-making tasks. Although it has been associated with real-world risk behavior, less is known about the degree to which DMC contributes to specific components of risk attitudes. Utilizing a psychological risk-return framework, we examined the associations between risk attitudes and DMC. Italian community residents (n = 804) completed an online DMC measure, using a subset of the original Adult-DMC battery. Participants also completed a self-reported risk attitude measure for three components of risk attitudes (risk-taking, risk perceptions, and expected benefits) across six risk domains. Overall, greater performance on the DMC component scales were inversely, albeit modestly, associated with risk-taking tendencies. Structural equation modeling results revealed that DMC was associated with lower perceived expected benefits for all domains. In contrast, its association with perceived risks was more domain-specific. These analyses also revealed stronger indirect effects for the DMC → expected benefits → risk-taking path than the DMC → perceived risk → risk-taking path, especially for behaviors that may be considered more maladaptive in nature. These results suggest that DMC performance differentially impacts specific components of risk attitudes, and may be more strongly related to the evaluation of expected value of a specific behavior. PMID:26029128

The Rational Approach to Budget Cuts: One University's Experience.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hardy, Cynthia

1988-01-01

The University of Montreal's choice of the rational model of decision-making in managing budget cutbacks is explored and compared with other approaches, including the bureaucratic, garbage can, political, and collegial models. (MSE)

Establishing rational networking using the DL04 quantum secure direct communication protocol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Huawang; Tang, Wallace K. S.; Tso, Raylin

2018-06-01

The first rational quantum secure direct communication scheme is proposed, in which we use the game theory with incomplete information to model the rational behavior of the participant, and give the strategy space and utility function. The rational participant can get his maximal utility when he performs the protocol faithfully, and then the Nash equilibrium of the protocol can be achieved. Compared to the traditional schemes, our scheme will be more practical in the presence of rational participant.

Employing imaginative rationality: using metaphor when discussing death.

PubMed

Llewellyn, Rebecca; Jaye, Chrystal; Egan, Richard; Cunningham, Wayne; Young, Jessica; Radue, Peter

2017-03-01

The prevalence of metaphors in medicine is widely acknowledged. In a qualitative study exploring expectations of longevity, we observed repeated recourse to the imaginative rationality provided by metaphors to express perspectives on longevity and death. Bafflement, acceptance, uncertainty and distress were conveyed through metaphors, providing valuable insight into the internal healthcare frameworks of participants. Skilful use of imaginative rationality in the healthcare setting may illuminate the elusive and often eschewed topic of death in a way that fosters clarity and new understandings, and pave the way towards a better life, and death for patients. By becoming aware of the nuances contained within patients'-as well as their own-metaphors, clinicians may enhance patients' overall healthcare experience and avert unintended miscommunication. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

[Use of Cone Beam Computed Tomography in endodontics: rational case selection criteria].

PubMed

Rosen, E; Tsesis, I

2016-01-01

To present rational case selection criteria for the use of CBCT (Cone Beam Computed Tomography) in endodontics. This article reviews the literature concerning the benefits of CBCT in endodontics, alongside its radiation risks, and present case selection criteria for referral of endodontic patients to CBCT. Up to date, the expected ultimate benefit of CBCT to the endodontic patient is yet uncertain, and the current literature is mainly restricted to its technical efficacy. In addition, the potential radiation risks of CBCT scan are stochastic in nature and uncertain, and are worrying especially in pediatric patients. Both the efficacy of CBCT in supporting the endodontic practitioner decision making and in affecting treatment outcomes, and its long term potential radiation risks are yet uncertain. Therefore, a cautious rational decision making is essential when a CBCT scan is considered in endodontics. Risk-benefit considerations are presented.

Rationally reduced libraries for combinatorial pathway optimization minimizing experimental effort.

PubMed

Jeschek, Markus; Gerngross, Daniel; Panke, Sven

2016-03-31

Rational flux design in metabolic engineering approaches remains difficult since important pathway information is frequently not available. Therefore empirical methods are applied that randomly change absolute and relative pathway enzyme levels and subsequently screen for variants with improved performance. However, screening is often limited on the analytical side, generating a strong incentive to construct small but smart libraries. Here we introduce RedLibs (Reduced Libraries), an algorithm that allows for the rational design of smart combinatorial libraries for pathway optimization thereby minimizing the use of experimental resources. We demonstrate the utility of RedLibs for the design of ribosome-binding site libraries by in silico and in vivo screening with fluorescent proteins and perform a simple two-step optimization of the product selectivity in the branched multistep pathway for violacein biosynthesis, indicating a general applicability for the algorithm and the proposed heuristics. We expect that RedLibs will substantially simplify the refactoring of synthetic metabolic pathways.

The Perls Perversion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morris, Kenneth T.

1975-01-01

Author describes the Perls perversion, the ego-centered attitude that people should live up to one's expectations and satisfy one's whims, which causes interpersonal friction. RET helps people counteract this perversion by sensitizing them to their internalized irrational belief system, disputing it, and trying to behave rationally. Commentary by…

Using expectations to monitor robotic progress and recover from problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurup, Unmesh; Lebiere, Christian; Stentz, Anthony; Hebert, Martial

2013-05-01

How does a robot know when something goes wrong? Our research answers this question by leveraging expectations - predictions about the immediate future - and using the mismatch between the expectations and the external world to monitor the robot's progress. We use the cognitive architecture ACT-R (Adaptive Control of Thought - Rational) to learn the associations between the current state of the robot and the world, the action to be performed in the world, and the future state of the world. These associations are used to generate expectations that are then matched by the architecture with the next state of the world. A significant mismatch between these expectations and the actual state of the world indicate a problem possibly resulting from unexpected consequences of the robot's actions, unforeseen changes in the environment or unanticipated actions of other agents. When a problem is detected, the recovery model can suggest a number of recovery options. If the situation is unknown, that is, the mismatch between expectations and the world is novel, the robot can use a recovery solution from a set of heuristic options. When a recovery option is successfully applied, the robot learns to associate that recovery option with the mismatch. When the same problem is encountered later, the robot can apply the learned recovery solution rather than using the heuristics or randomly exploring the space of recovery solutions. We present results from execution monitoring and recovery performed during an assessment conducted at the Combined Arms Collective Training Facility (CACTF) at Fort Indiantown Gap.

Why high-risk, non-expected-utility-maximising gambles can be rational and beneficial: the case of HIV cure studies.

PubMed

Buchak, Lara

2017-02-01

Some early phase clinical studies of candidate HIV cure and remission interventions appear to have adverse medical risk-benefit ratios for participants. Why, then, do people participate? And is it ethically permissible to allow them to participate? Recent work in decision theory sheds light on both of these questions, by casting doubt on the idea that rational individuals prefer choices that maximise expected utility, and therefore by casting doubt on the idea that researchers have an ethical obligation not to enrol participants in studies with high risk-benefit ratios. This work supports the view that researchers should instead defer to the considered preferences of the participants themselves. This essay briefly explains this recent work, and then explores its application to these two questions in more detail. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Remarks on thermalization in 2D CFT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Boer, Jan; Engelhardt, Dalit

2016-12-01

We revisit certain aspects of thermalization in 2D conformal field theory (CFT). In particular, we consider similarities and differences between the time dependence of correlation functions in various states in rational and non-rational CFTs. We also consider the distinction between global and local thermalization and explain how states obtained by acting with a diffeomorphism on the ground state can appear locally thermal, and we review why the time-dependent expectation value of the energy-momentum tensor is generally a poor diagnostic of global thermalization. Since all 2D CFTs have an infinite set of commuting conserved charges, generic initial states might be expected to give rise to a generalized Gibbs ensemble rather than a pure thermal ensemble at late times. We construct the holographic dual of the generalized Gibbs ensemble and show that, to leading order, it is still described by a Banados-Teitelboim-Zanelli black hole. The extra conserved charges, while rendering c <1 theories essentially integrable, therefore seem to have little effect on large-c conformal field theories.

Application of a Genetic Algorithm and Multi Agent System to Explore Emergent Patterns of Social Rationality and a Distress-Based Model for Deceit in the Workplace

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-01

postponed the fulfillment of her own Masters Degree by at least 18 months so that I would have the opportunity to earn mine. She is smart , lovely...GENETIC ALGORITHM AND MULTI AGENT SYSTEM TO EXPLORE EMERGENT PATTERNS OF SOCIAL RATIONALITY AND A DISTRESS-BASED MODEL FOR DECEIT IN THE WORKPLACE...of a Genetic Algorithm and Mutli Agent System to Explore Emergent Patterns of Social Rationality and a Distress-Based Model for Deceit in the

New construction of eigenstates and separation of variables for SU( N) quantum spin chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromov, Nikolay; Levkovich-Maslyuk, Fedor; Sizov, Grigory

2017-09-01

We conjecture a new way to construct eigenstates of integrable XXX quantum spin chains with SU( N) symmetry. The states are built by repeatedly acting on the vacuum with a single operator B good( u) evaluated at the Bethe roots. Our proposal serves as a compact alternative to the usual nested algebraic Bethe ansatz. Furthermore, the roots of this operator give the separated variables of the model, explicitly generalizing Sklyanin's approach to the SU( N) case. We present many tests of the conjecture and prove it in several special cases. We focus on rational spin chains with fundamental representation at each site, but expect many of the results to be valid more generally.

Obesity and Smoking: can we Kill Two Birds with one Tax?

PubMed

Dragone, Davide; Manaresi, Francesco; Savorelli, Luca

2016-11-01

The debate on tobacco and fat taxes often treats smoking and eating as independent behaviors. However, the available evidence shows that they are interdependent, which implies that policies against smoking or obesity may have larger scope than expected. To address this issue, we propose a dynamic rational model where eating, smoking, and physical exercise are simultaneous choices that jointly affect body weight and addiction to smoking. Focusing on direct and cross-price effects, we study the impact of tobacco and food taxes, and we show that in both cases a single policy tool can reduce both smoking and body weight. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Delaying investments in sensor technology: The rationality of dairy farmers' investment decisions illustrated within the framework of real options theory.

PubMed

Rutten, C J; Steeneveld, W; Oude Lansink, A G J M; Hogeveen, H

2018-05-02

The adoption rate of sensors on dairy farms varies widely. Whereas some sensors are hardly adopted, others are adopted by many farmers. A potential rational explanation for the difference in adoption may be the expected future technological progress in the sensor technology and expected future improved decision support possibilities. For some sensors not much progress can be expected because the technology has already made enormous progress in recent years, whereas for sensors that have only recently been introduced on the market, much progress can be expected. The adoption of sensors may thus be partly explained by uncertainty about the investment decision, in which uncertainty lays in the future performance of the sensors and uncertainty about whether improved informed decision support will become available. The overall aim was to offer a plausible example of why a sensor may not be adopted now. To explain this, the role of uncertainty about technological progress in the investment decision was illustrated for highly adopted sensors (automated estrus detection) and hardly adopted sensors (automated body condition score). This theoretical illustration uses the real options theory, which accounts for the role of uncertainty in the timing of investment decisions. A discrete event model, simulating a farm of 100 dairy cows, was developed to estimate the net present value (NPV) of investing now and investing in 5 yr in both sensor systems. The results show that investing now in automated estrus detection resulted in a higher NPV than investing 5 yr from now, whereas for the automated body condition score postponing the investment resulted in a higher NPV compared with investing now. These results are in line with the observation that farmers postpone investments in sensors. Also, the current high adoption of automated estrus detection sensors can be explained because the NPV of investing now is higher than the NPV of investing in 5 yr. The results confirm that uncertainty about future sensor performance and uncertainty about whether improved decision support will become available play a role in investment decisions. Copyright © 2018 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Are graduate students rational? Evidence from the market for biomedical scientists.

PubMed

Blume-Kohout, Margaret E; Clack, John W

2013-01-01

The U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) budget expansion from 1998 through 2003 increased demand for biomedical research, raising relative wages and total employment in the market for biomedical scientists. However, because research doctorates in biomedical sciences can often take six years or more to complete, the full labor supply response to such changes in market conditions is not immediate, but rather is observed over a period of several years. Economic rational expectations models assume that prospective students anticipate these future changes, and also that students take into account the opportunity costs of their pursuing graduate training. Prior empirical research on student enrollment and degree completions in science and engineering (S&E) fields indicates that "cobweb" expectations prevail: that is, at least in theory, prospective graduate students respond to contemporaneous changes in market wages and employment, but do not forecast further changes that will arise by the time they complete their degrees and enter the labor market. In this article, we analyze time-series data on wages and employment of biomedical scientists versus alternative careers, on completions of S&E bachelor's degrees and biomedical sciences PhDs, and on research expenditures funded both by NIH and by biopharmaceutical firms, to examine the responsiveness of the biomedical sciences labor supply to changes in market conditions. Consistent with previous studies, we find that enrollments and completions in biomedical sciences PhD programs are responsive to market conditions at the time of students' enrollment. More striking, however, is the close correspondence between graduate student enrollments and completions, and changes in availability of NIH-funded traineeships, fellowships, and research assistantships.

Issues of Dynamic Coalition Formation Among Rational Agents

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-04-01

approaches of forming stable coalitions among rational agents. Issues and problems of dynamic coalition environments are discussed in section 3 while...2.2. 2.1.2 Coalition Algorithm, Coalition Formation Environment and Model Rational agents which are involved in a co-operative game (A,v) are...publicly available simulation environment for coalition formation among rational information agents based on selected classic coalition theories is, for

Estimation of parameters in rational reaction rates of molecular biological systems via weighted least squares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Fang-Xiang; Mu, Lei; Shi, Zhong-Ke

2010-01-01

The models of gene regulatory networks are often derived from statistical thermodynamics principle or Michaelis-Menten kinetics equation. As a result, the models contain rational reaction rates which are nonlinear in both parameters and states. It is challenging to estimate parameters nonlinear in a model although there have been many traditional nonlinear parameter estimation methods such as Gauss-Newton iteration method and its variants. In this article, we develop a two-step method to estimate the parameters in rational reaction rates of gene regulatory networks via weighted linear least squares. This method takes the special structure of rational reaction rates into consideration. That is, in the rational reaction rates, the numerator and the denominator are linear in parameters. By designing a special weight matrix for the linear least squares, parameters in the numerator and the denominator can be estimated by solving two linear least squares problems. The main advantage of the developed method is that it can produce the analytical solutions to the estimation of parameters in rational reaction rates which originally is nonlinear parameter estimation problem. The developed method is applied to a couple of gene regulatory networks. The simulation results show the superior performance over Gauss-Newton method.

Topological defects in mixtures of superconducting condensates with different charges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garaud, Julien; Babaev, Egor

2014-06-01

We investigate the topological defects in phenomenological models describing mixtures of charged condensates with commensurate electric charges. Such situations are expected to appear for example in liquid metallic deuterium. This is modeled by a multicomponent Ginzburg-Landau theory where the condensates are coupled to the same gauge field by different coupling constants whose ratio is a rational number. We also briefly discuss the case where electric charges are incommensurate. Flux quantization and finiteness of the energy per unit length dictate that the different condensates have different winding and thus different number of (fractional) vortices. Competing attractive and repulsive interactions lead to molecule-like bound states between fractional vortices. Such bound states have finite energy and carry integer flux quanta. These can be characterized by the CP1 topological invariant that motivates their denomination as skyrmions.

Dedicated clock/timing-circuit theories of time perception and timed performance.

PubMed

van Rijn, Hedderik; Gu, Bon-Mi; Meck, Warren H

2014-01-01

Scalar Timing Theory (an information-processing version of Scalar Expectancy Theory) and its evolution into the neurobiologically plausible Striatal Beat-Frequency (SBF) theory of interval timing are reviewed. These pacemaker/accumulator or oscillation/coincidence detection models are then integrated with the Adaptive Control of Thought-Rational (ACT-R) cognitive architecture as dedicated timing modules that are able to make use of the memory and decision-making mechanisms contained in ACT-R. The different predictions made by the incorporation of these timing modules into ACT-R are discussed as well as the potential limitations. Novel implementations of the original SBF model that allow it to be incorporated into ACT-R in a more fundamental fashion than the earlier simulations of Scalar Timing Theory are also considered in conjunction with the proposed properties and neural correlates of the "internal clock".

A rational decision rule with extreme events.

PubMed

Basili, Marcello

2006-12-01

Risks induced by extreme events are characterized by small or ambiguous probabilities, catastrophic losses, or windfall gains. Through a new functional, that mimics the restricted Bayes-Hurwicz criterion within the Choquet expected utility approach, it is possible to represent the decisionmaker behavior facing both risky (large and reliable probability) and extreme (small or ambiguous probability) events. A new formalization of the precautionary principle (PP) is shown and a new functional, which encompasses both extreme outcomes and expectation of all the possible results for every act, is claimed.

Range-based volatility, expected stock returns, and the low volatility anomaly

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

One of the foundations of financial economics is the idea that rational investors will discount stocks with more risk (volatility), which will result in a positive relation between risk and future returns. However, the empirical evidence is mixed when determining how volatility is related to future returns. In this paper, we examine this relation using a range-based measure of volatility, which is shown to be theoretically, numerically, and empirically superior to other measures of volatility. In a variety of tests, we find that range-based volatility is negatively associated with expected stock returns. These results are robust to time-series multifactor models as well as cross-sectional tests. Our findings contribute to the debate about the direction of the relationship between risk and return and confirm the presence of the low volatility anomaly, or the anomalous finding that low volatility stocks outperform high volatility stocks. In other tests, we find that the lower returns associated with range-based volatility are driven by stocks with lottery-like characteristics. PMID:29190652

Punishment diminishes the benefits of network reciprocity in social dilemma experiments

PubMed Central

Li, Xuelong; Wang, Zhen; Li, Huijia; Shi, Lei; Podobnik, Boris; Havlin, Shlomo; Boccaletti, Stefano

2018-01-01

Network reciprocity has been widely advertised in theoretical studies as one of the basic cooperation-promoting mechanisms, but experimental evidence favoring this type of reciprocity was published only recently. When organized in an unchanging network of social contacts, human subjects cooperate provided the following strict condition is satisfied: The benefit of cooperation must outweigh the total cost of cooperating with all neighbors. In an attempt to relax this condition, we perform social dilemma experiments wherein network reciprocity is aided with another theoretically hypothesized cooperation-promoting mechanism—costly punishment. The results reveal how networks promote and stabilize cooperation. This stabilizing effect is stronger in a smaller-size neighborhood, as expected from theory and experiments. Contrary to expectations, punishment diminishes the benefits of network reciprocity by lowering assortment, payoff per round, and award for cooperative behavior. This diminishing effect is stronger in a larger-size neighborhood. An immediate implication is that the psychological effects of enduring punishment override the rational response anticipated in quantitative models of cooperation in networks. PMID:29259113

Range-based volatility, expected stock returns, and the low volatility anomaly.

PubMed

Blau, Benjamin M; Whitby, Ryan J

2017-01-01

One of the foundations of financial economics is the idea that rational investors will discount stocks with more risk (volatility), which will result in a positive relation between risk and future returns. However, the empirical evidence is mixed when determining how volatility is related to future returns. In this paper, we examine this relation using a range-based measure of volatility, which is shown to be theoretically, numerically, and empirically superior to other measures of volatility. In a variety of tests, we find that range-based volatility is negatively associated with expected stock returns. These results are robust to time-series multifactor models as well as cross-sectional tests. Our findings contribute to the debate about the direction of the relationship between risk and return and confirm the presence of the low volatility anomaly, or the anomalous finding that low volatility stocks outperform high volatility stocks. In other tests, we find that the lower returns associated with range-based volatility are driven by stocks with lottery-like characteristics.

A Rational Analysis of Rule-Based Concept Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goodman, Noah D.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.; Feldman, Jacob; Griffiths, Thomas L.

2008-01-01

This article proposes a new model of human concept learning that provides a rational analysis of learning feature-based concepts. This model is built upon Bayesian inference for a grammatically structured hypothesis space--a concept language of logical rules. This article compares the model predictions to human generalization judgments in several…

Peer and cyber aggression in secondary school students: the role of moral disengagement, hostile attribution bias, and outcome expectancies.

PubMed

Pornari, Chrisa D; Wood, Jane

2010-01-01

This study investigated the relationship between cognitive mechanisms, applied by people to rationalize and justify harmful acts, and engagement in traditional peer and cyber aggression among school children. We examined the contribution of moral disengagement (MD), hostile attribution bias, and outcome expectancies, and we further explored the individual contribution of each MD mechanism. Our aim was to identify shared and unique cognitive factors of the two forms of aggression. Three hundred and thirty-nine secondary school children completed self-report measures that assessed MD, hostile attribution bias, outcome expectancies, and their roles and involvement in traditional and cyber aggression. We found that the MD total score positively related to both forms of peer-directed aggression. Furthermore, traditional peer aggression positively related to children's moral justification, euphemistic language, displacement of responsibility and outcome expectancies, and negatively associated with hostile attribution bias. Moral justification also related positively to cyber aggression. Cyber aggression and cyber victimization were associated with high levels of traditional peer aggression and victimization, respectively. The results suggest that MD is a common feature of both traditional and cyber peer aggression, but it seems that traditional forms of aggression demand a higher level of rationalization or justification. Moreover, the data suggest that the expectation of positive outcomes from harmful behavior facilitates engagement in traditional peer aggression. The differential contribution of specific cognitive mechanisms indicates the need for future research to elaborate on the current findings, in order to advance theory and inform existing and future school interventions tackling aggression and bullying. (c) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Environmental Management: the Ideology of Natural Resource Rational Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolotukhin, V. M.; Gogolin, V. A.; Yazevich, M. Yu; Baumgarten, M. I.; Dyagileva, A. V.

2017-01-01

The article presents an analysis of the ontological and methodological principles of environmental management. These principles form the united ideology of natural resource rational use as the environment preservation basis. Consideration of environmental issues from the environmental management point of view is stipulated by the concern of the scientific community about the existence of mankind and the sphere of its inhabiting. The need to overcome the stereotypes existing in mass consciousness about safe and environmentally friendly consumption is stressed. The process of forming environmental management policy should contribute to the stabilization (balancing) of the consumers’ expectations and collective decision-making based on a public ecological consensus.

Randomness in the network inhibits cooperation based on the bounded rational collective altruistic decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohdaira, Tetsushi

2014-07-01

Previous studies discussing cooperation employ the best decision that every player knows all information regarding the payoff matrix and selects the strategy of the highest payoff. Therefore, they do not discuss cooperation based on the altruistic decision with limited information (bounded rational altruistic decision). In addition, they do not cover the case where every player can submit his/her strategy several times in a match of the game. This paper is based on Ohdaira's reconsideration of the bounded rational altruistic decision, and also employs the framework of the prisoner's dilemma game (PDG) with sequential strategy. The distinction between this study and the Ohdaira's reconsideration is that the former covers the model of multiple groups, but the latter deals with the model of only two groups. Ohdaira's reconsideration shows that the bounded rational altruistic decision facilitates much more cooperation in the PDG with sequential strategy than Ohdaira and Terano's bounded rational second-best decision does. However, the detail of cooperation of multiple groups based on the bounded rational altruistic decision has not been resolved yet. This study, therefore, shows how randomness in the network composed of multiple groups affects the increase of the average frequency of mutual cooperation (cooperation between groups) based on the bounded rational altruistic decision of multiple groups. We also discuss the results of the model in comparison with related studies which employ the best decision.

The Emotional Experience of School Change: Resistance, Loss, and Grief.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marshak, David

1996-01-01

Ignoring the emotional experience of school change may unintentionally sabotage rational planning. Reinventing schools means attending to educators' emotional experience, particularly their expectations, sense of loss, and resulting grief. School norms must be transformed so that teachers and administrators can have meaningful conversations about…

An application of prospect theory to a SHM-based decision problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolognani, Denise; Verzobio, Andrea; Tonelli, Daniel; Cappello, Carlo; Glisic, Branko; Zonta, Daniele

2017-04-01

Decision making investigates choices that have uncertain consequences and that cannot be completely predicted. Rational behavior may be described by the so-called expected utility theory (EUT), whose aim is to help choosing among several solutions to maximize the expectation of the consequences. However, Kahneman and Tversky developed an alternative model, called prospect theory (PT), showing that the basic axioms of EUT are violated in several instances. In respect of EUT, PT takes into account irrational behaviors and heuristic biases. It suggests an alternative approach, in which probabilities are replaced by decision weights, which are strictly related to the decision maker's preferences and may change for different individuals. In particular, people underestimate the utility of uncertain scenarios compared to outcomes obtained with certainty, and show inconsistent preferences when the same choice is presented in different forms. The goal of this paper is precisely to analyze a real case study involving a decision problem regarding the Streicker Bridge, a pedestrian bridge on Princeton University campus. By modelling the manager of the bridge with the EUT first, and with PT later, we want to verify the differences between the two approaches and to investigate how the two models are sensitive to unpacking probabilities, which represent a common cognitive bias in irrational behaviors.

Specialists without spirit: limitations of the mechanistic biomedical model.

PubMed

Hewa, S; Hetherington, R W

1995-06-01

This paper examines the origin and the development of the mechanistic model of the human body and health in terms of Max Weber's theory of rationalization. It is argued that the development of Western scientific medicine is a part of the broad process of rationalization that began in sixteenth century Europe as a result of the Reformation. The development of the mechanistic view of the human body in Western medicine is consistent with the ideas of calculability, predictability, and control-the major tenets of the process of rationalization as described by Weber. In recent years, however, the limitations of the mechanistic model have been the topic of many discussions. George Engel, a leading advocate of general systems theory, is one of the leading proponents of a new medical model which includes the general quality of life, clean environment, and psychological, or spiritual stability of life. The paper concludes with consideration of the potential of Engel's proposed new model in the context of the current state of rationalization in modern industrialized society.

Shape Control in Multivariate Barycentric Rational Interpolation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Hoa Thang; Cuyt, Annie; Celis, Oliver Salazar

2010-09-01

The most stable formula for a rational interpolant for use on a finite interval is the barycentric form [1, 2]. A simple choice of the barycentric weights ensures the absence of (unwanted) poles on the real line [3]. In [4] we indicate that a more refined choice of the weights in barycentric rational interpolation can guarantee comonotonicity and coconvexity of the rational interpolant in addition to a polefree region of interest. In this presentation we generalize the above to the multivariate case. We use a product-like form of univariate barycentric rational interpolants and indicate how the location of the poles and the shape of the function can be controlled. This functionality is of importance in the construction of mathematical models that need to express a certain trend, such as in probability distributions, economics, population dynamics, tumor growth models etc.

What motivates dentists to work in prisons? A qualitative exploration.

PubMed

Smith, P A; Themessl-Huber, M; Akbar, T; Richards, D; Freeman, R

2011-08-26

To explore what motivates dentists to work in prisons using Vroom's theoretical model of motivation as an explanatory framework. In-depth interviews were conducted with ten of the 15 dentists working in Scottish prisons. The focus was to explore their motivations to work in Scottish prisons. The data were analysed using a thematic framework based on the three motivational dimensions of expectancy, instrumentality and valence. The dentists had the skills to help improve their prisoner-patients' oral health but their efforts were often hindered by institutional rationing and the requirement to fit in with prison routines and procedures (expectancy). Despite these institutional difficulties the dentists experienced work rewards associated with the improvement in the prisoners' oral health (instrumentality). Finally, the dentists experienced a feeling of personal worth and a sense of commitment to providing care to Scottish prisoners (valence). The dentists' motivation to work in Scottish prisons may be explained by Vroom's Expectancy Theory. The dentists' motivation is characterised by their beliefs that their work will improve clinical outcomes which will be rewarded by the satisfaction experienced when they overcome environmental obstacles and provide oral health care for their prisoner-patients.

Treatment of moderate acute malnutrition with ready-to-use supplementary food results in higher overall recovery rates compared with a corn-soya blend in children in southern Ethiopia: an operations research trial.

PubMed

Karakochuk, Crystal; van den Briel, Tina; Stephens, Derek; Zlotkin, Stanley

2012-10-01

Moderate and severe acute malnutrition affects 13% of children <5 y of age worldwide. Severe acute malnutrition affects fewer children but is associated with higher rates of mortality and morbidity. Supplementary feeding programs aim to treat moderate acute malnutrition and prevent the deterioration to severe acute malnutrition. The aim was to compare recovery rates of children with moderate acute malnutrition in supplementary feeding programs by using the newly recommended ration of ready-to-use supplementary food (RUSF) and the more conventional ration of corn-soya blend (CSB) in Ethiopia. A total of 1125 children aged 6-60 mo with moderate acute malnutrition received 16 wk of CSB or RUSF. Children were randomly assigned to receive one or the other food. The daily rations were purposely based on the conventional treatment rations distributed at the time of the study in Ethiopia: 300 g CSB and 32 g vegetable oil in the control group (1413 kcal) and 92 g RUSF in the intervention group (500 kcal). The higher ration size of CSB was provided because of expected food sharing. The HR for children in the CSB group was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.73, 0.99), which indicated that they had 15% lower recovery (P = 0.039). Recovery rates of children at the end of the 16-wk treatment period trended higher in the RUSF group (73%) than in the CSB group (67%) (P = 0.056). In comparison with CSB, the treatment of moderate acute malnutrition with RUSF resulted in higher recovery rates in children, despite the large ration size and higher energy content of the conventional CSB ration.

Undecidability in macroeconomics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandra, Siddharth; Chandra, Tushar Deepak

1993-01-01

In this paper we study the difficulty of solving problems in economics. For this purpose, we adopt the notion of undecidability from recursion theory. We show that certain problems in economics are undecidable, i.e., cannot be solved by a Turing Machine, a device that is at least as powerful as any computational device that can be constructed. In particular, we prove that even in finite closed economies subject to a variable initial condition, in which a social planner knows the behavior of every agent in the economy, certain important social planning problems are undecidable. Thus, it may be impossible to make effective policy decisions. Philosophically, this result formally brings into question the Rational Expectations Hypothesis which assumes that each agent is able to determine what it should do if it wishes to maximize its utility. We show that even when an optimal rational forecast exists for each agency (based on the information currently available to it), agents may lack the ability to make these forecasts. For example, Lucas describes economic models as 'mechanical, artificial world(s), populated by ... interacting robots'. Since any mechanical robot can be at most as computationally powerful as a Turing Machine, such economies are vulnerable to the phenomenon of undecidability.

Rational drug design and synthesis of molecules targeting the angiotensin II type 1 and type 2 receptors.

PubMed

Kellici, Tahsin F; Tzakos, Andreas G; Mavromoustakos, Thomas

2015-03-02

The angiotensin II (Ang II) type 1 and type 2 receptors (AT1R and AT2R) orchestrate an array of biological processes that regulate human health. Aberrant function of these receptors triggers pathophysiological responses that can ultimately lead to death. Therefore, it is important to design and synthesize compounds that affect beneficially these two receptors. Cardiovascular disease, which is attributed to the overactivation of the vasoactive peptide hormone Αng II, can now be treated with commercial AT1R antagonists. Herein, recent achievements in rational drug design and synthesis of molecules acting on the two AT receptors are reviewed. Quantitative structure activity relationships (QSAR) and molecular modeling on the two receptors aim to assist the search for new active compounds. As AT1R and AT2R are GPCRs and drug action is localized in the transmembrane region the role of membrane bilayers is exploited. The future perspectives in this field are outlined. Tremendous progress in the field is expected if the two receptors are crystallized, as this will assist the structure based screening of the chemical space and lead to new potent therapeutic agents in cardiovascular and other diseases.

Self-choice enhances value in reward-seeking in primates.

PubMed

Setogawa, Tsuyoshi; Mizuhiki, Takashi; Matsumoto, Narihisa; Akizawa, Fumika; Shidara, Munetaka

2014-03-01

When an individual chooses one item from two or more alternatives, they compare the values of the expected outcomes. The outcome value can be determined by the associated reward amount, the probability of reward, and the workload required to earn the reward. Rational choice theory states that choices are made to maximize rewards over time, and that the same outcome values lead to an equal likelihood of choices. However, the theory does not distinguish between conditions with the same reward value, even when acquired under different circumstances, and does not always accurately describe real behavior. We have found that allowing a monkey to choose a reward schedule endows the schedule with extra value when compared to performance in an identical schedule that is chosen by another agent (a computer here). This behavior is not consistent with pure rational choice theory. Theoretical analysis using a modified temporal-difference learning model showed an enhanced schedule state value by self-choice. These results suggest that an increased reward value underlies the improved performances by self-choice during reward-seeking behavior. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd and the Japan Neuroscience Society. All rights reserved.

Rationality in collective decision-making by ant colonies.

PubMed

Edwards, Susan C; Pratt, Stephen C

2009-10-22

Economic models of animal behaviour assume that decision-makers are rational, meaning that they assess options according to intrinsic fitness value and not by comparison with available alternatives. This expectation is frequently violated, but the significance of irrational behaviour remains controversial. One possibility is that irrationality arises from cognitive constraints that necessitate short cuts like comparative evaluation. If so, the study of whether and when irrationality occurs can illuminate cognitive mechanisms. We applied this logic in a novel setting: the collective decisions of insect societies. We tested for irrationality in colonies of Temnothorax ants choosing between two nest sites that varied in multiple attributes, such that neither site was clearly superior. In similar situations, individual animals show irrational changes in preference when a third relatively unattractive option is introduced. In contrast, we found no such effect in colonies. We suggest that immunity to irrationality in this case may result from the ants' decentralized decision mechanism. A colony's choice does not depend on site comparison by individuals, but instead self-organizes from the interactions of multiple ants, most of which are aware of only a single site. This strategy may filter out comparative effects, preventing systematic errors that would otherwise arise from the cognitive limitations of individuals.

Are Universities Rational Organizations?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dufty, N. F.

1980-01-01

Administrators in higher education frequently assume a type of rationality based on bureaucratic or political models of organizations, or some combination of the two. This assumption is questioned, and suggestions are made for models of decision making, resource allocation, and policy formation and implementation. (MSE)

Alliance ruptures and rupture resolution in cognitive-behavior therapy: a preliminary task analysis.

PubMed

Aspland, Helen; Llewelyn, Susan; Hardy, Gillian E; Barkham, Michael; Stiles, William

2008-11-01

An initial ideal, rational model of alliance rupture and rupture resolution provided by cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) experts was assessed and compared with empirical observations of ruptures and their resolution in two cases of successful CBT. The initial rational model emphasized nondefensive acknowledgment and exploration of the rupture. Results indicated differences between what therapists think they should do to resolve ruptures and what they actually do and suggested that the rational model should be expanded to emphasize client validation and empowerment. Therapists' ability to attend to ruptures emerged as an important clinical skill.

Children's selective trust decisions: rational competence and limiting performance factors.

PubMed

Hermes, Jonas; Behne, Tanya; Bich, Anna Elisa; Thielert, Christa; Rakoczy, Hannes

2018-03-01

Recent research has amply documented that even preschoolers learn selectively from others, preferring, for example, reliable over unreliable and competent over incompetent models. It remains unclear, however, what the cognitive foundations of such selective learning are, in particular, whether it builds on rational inferences or on less sophisticated processes. The current study, therefore, was designed to test directly the possibility that children are in principle capable of selective learning based on rational inference, yet revert to simpler strategies such as global impression formation under certain circumstances. Preschoolers (N = 75) were shown pairs of models that either differed in their degree of competence within one domain (strong vs. weak or knowledgeable vs. ignorant) or were both highly competent, but in different domains (e.g., strong vs. knowledgeable model). In the test trials, children chose between the models for strength- or knowledge-related tasks. The results suggest that, in fact, children are capable of rational inference-based selective trust: when both models were highly competent, children preferred the model with the competence most predictive and relevant for a given task. However, when choosing between two models that differed in competence on one dimension, children reverted to halo-style wide generalizations and preferred the competent models for both relevant and irrelevant tasks. These findings suggest that the rational strategies for selective learning, that children master in principle, can get masked by various performance factors. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Options as information: rational reversals of evaluation and preference.

PubMed

Sher, Shlomi; McKenzie, Craig R M

2014-06-01

This article develops a rational analysis of an important class of apparent preference reversals-joint-separate reversals traditionally explained by the evaluability hypothesis. The "options-as-information" model considers a hypothetical rational actor with limited knowledge about the market distribution of a stimulus attribute. The actor's evaluations are formed via a 2-stage process-an inferential stage in which beliefs are updated on the basis of the sample of options received, followed by an assessment stage in which options are evaluated in light of these updated beliefs. This process generates joint-separate reversals in standard experimental designs. The normative model explains why the evaluability hypothesis works when it does, identifies boundary conditions for the hypothesis, and clarifies some common misconceptions about these effects. In particular, it implies that joint-separate reversals are not irrational; in fact, they are not preference reversals. However, in expanded designs where more than 2 options are jointly evaluated, the model predicts that genuine (and rational) preference reversals will sometimes emerge. Results of 3 experiments suggest an excellent fit between the rational actor model and the judgments of human actors in joint-separate experiments. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Should Teachers be Taught to be Rational?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Floden, Robert E.; Feiman, Sharon

Teacher education programs have often attempted to make teachers more rational by use of apriori models. These models poorly correspond to teachers' thinking styles. Three distinct reactions to this problem have occurred. One proposed solution is to break the apriori model into separate component skills and to train teachers in each skill. A…

A Feminist Critique of Rational-Choice Theories: Implications for Sociology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

England, Paula

1989-01-01

Provides a feminist critique of rational-choice theory and the interdisciplinary feminist theories of sociology. Applies the separative model of self to four assumptions of the neoclassical economics version of rational-choice theory. Uses research on marital power to illustrate how removing distorting assumptions can help illuminate sociological…

The Integration of Extrarational and Rational Learning Processes: Moving Towards the Whole Learner.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Puk, Tom

1996-01-01

Discusses the dichotomy between rational and nonrational learning processes, arguing for an integration of both. Reviews information processing theory and related learning strategies. Presents a model instructional strategy that fully integrates rational and nonrational processes. Describes implications for teaching and learning of the learning…

Morphometric differences and fluctuating asymmetry in Melipona subnitida Ducke 1910 (Hymenoptera: Apidae) in different types of housing.

PubMed

Lima, C B S; Nunes, L A; Carvalho, C A L; Ribeiro, M F; Souza, B A; Silva, C S B

2016-01-01

A geometric morphometrics approach was applied to evaluate differences in forewing patterns of the Jandaira bee (Melipona subnitida Ducke). For this, we studied the presence of fluctuating asymmetry (FA) in forewing shape and size of colonies kept in either rational hive boxes or natural tree trunks. We detected significant FA for wing size as well as wing shape independent of the type of housing (rational box or tree trunks), indicating the overall presence of stress during the development of the studied specimens. FA was also significant (p < 0.01) between rational boxes, possibly related to the use of various models of rational boxes used for keeping stingless bees. In addition, a Principal Component Analysis indicated morphometric variation between bee colonies kept in either rational hive boxes or in tree trunks, that may be related to the different origins of the bees: tree trunk colonies were relocated natural colonies while rational box colonies originated from multiplying other colonies. We conclude that adequate measures should be taken to reduce the amount of stress during bee handling by using standard models of rational boxes that cause the least disruption.

Delusions as performance failures.

PubMed

Gerrans, P

2001-08-01

Delusions are explanations of anomalous experiences. A theory of delusion requires an explanation of both the anomalous experience and the apparently irrational explanation generated by the delusional subject. Hence, we require a model of rational belief formation against which the belief formation of delusional subjects can be evaluated. I first describe such a model, distinguishing procedural from pragmatic rationality. Procedural rationality is the use of rules or procedures, deductive or inductive, that produce an inferentially coherent set of propositions. Pragmatic rationality is the use of procedural rationality in context. I then apply the distinction to the explanation of the Capgras and the Cotard delusions. I then argue that delusions are failures of pragmatic rationality. I examine the nature of these failures employing the distinction between performance and competence familiar from Chomskian linguistics. This approach to the irrationality of delusions reconciles accounts in which the explanation of the anomalous experience exhausts the explanation of delusion, accounts that appeal to further deficits within the reasoning processes of delusional subjects, and accounts that argue that delusions are not beliefs at all. (Respectively, one-stage, two-stage, and expressive accounts.) In paradigm cases that concern cognitive neuropsychiatry the irrationality of delusional subjects should be thought of as a performance deficit in pragmatic rationality.

When is it rational to participate in a clinical trial? A game theory approach incorporating trust, regret and guilt

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) remain an indispensable form of human experimentation as a vehicle for discovery of new treatments. However, since their inception RCTs have raised ethical concerns. The ethical tension has revolved around “duties to individuals” vs. “societal value” of RCTs. By asking current patients “to sacrifice for the benefit of future patients” we risk subjugating our duties to patients’ best interest to the utilitarian goal for the good of others. This tension creates a key dilemma: when is it rational, from the perspective of the trial patients and researchers (as societal representatives of future patients), to enroll in RCTs? Methods We employed the trust version of the prisoner’s dilemma since interaction between the patient and researcher in the setting of a clinical trial is inherently based on trust. We also took into account that the patient may have regretted his/her decision to participate in the trial, while a researcher may feel guilty because he/she abused the patient’s trust. Results We found that under typical circumstances of clinical research, most patients can be expected not to trust researchers, and most researchers can be expected to abuse the patients’ trust. The most significant factor determining trust was the success of experimental or standard treatments, respectively. The more that a researcher believes the experimental treatment will be successful, the more incentive the researcher has to abuse trust. The analysis was sensitive to the assumptions about the utilities related to success and failure of therapies that are tested in RCTs. By varying all variables in the Monte Carlo analysis we found that, on average, the researcher can be expected to honor a patient’s trust 41% of the time, while the patient is inclined to trust the researcher 69% of the time. Under assumptions of our model, enrollment into RCTs represents a rational strategy that can meet both patients’ and researchers’ interests simultaneously 19% of the time. Conclusions There is an inherent ethical dilemma in the conduct of RCTs. The factors that hamper full co-operation between patients and researchers in the conduct of RCTs can be best addressed by: a) having more reliable estimates on the probabilities that new vs. established treatments will be successful, b) improving transparency in the clinical trial system to ensure fulfillment of “the social contract” between patients and researchers. PMID:22726276

A Model for Teaching Rational Behavior Skills to Emotionally Disturbed Youth in a Public School Setting.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patton, Patricia L.

1985-01-01

Describes a model used to teach rational behavior skills to 34 emotionally disturbed adolescents. Discusses teaching, training, and counseling strategies. The group demonstrated significant positive changes in learning and personality variables, but not behavior. (JAC)

Individual differences in processing styles: validity of the Rational-Experiential Inventory.

PubMed

Björklund, Fredrik; Bäckström, Martin

2008-10-01

In Study 1 (N= 203) the factor structure of a Swedish translation of Pacini and Epstein's Rational-Experiential Inventory (REI-40) was investigated using confirmatory factor analysis. The hypothesized model with rationality and experientiality as orthogonal factors had satisfactory fit to the data, significantly better than alternative models (with two correlated factors or a single factor). Inclusion of "ability" and "favorability" subscales for rationality and experientiality increased fit further. It was concluded that the structural validity of the REI is adequate. In Study 2 (N= 72) the REI-factors were shown to have theoretically meaningful correlations to other personality traits, indicating convergent and discriminant validity. Finally, scores on the rationality scale were negatively related to risky choice framing effects in Kahneman and Tversky's Asian disease task, indicating concurrent validity. On the basis of these findings it was concluded that the test has satisfactory psychometric properties.

Lying to ourselves: rationality, critical reflexivity, and the moral order as 'structured agency'.

PubMed

Goodman, Benny

2016-07-01

A report suggests that United States' army officers may engage in dishonest reporting regarding their compliance procedures. Similarly, nurses with espoused high ethical standards sometimes fail to live up to them and may do so while deceiving themselves about such practices. Reasons for lapses are complex. However, multitudinous managerial demands arising within 'technical and instrumental rationality' may impact on honest decision-making. This paper suggests that compliance processes, which operates within the social structural context of the technical and instrumental rationality manifest as 'managerialism', contributes to professional 'dishonesty' about lapses in care, sometimes through 'thoughtlessness'. The need to manage risk, measure, account, and control in order to deliver efficiency, effectiveness, and economy (technical rationality) thus has both unintended and dysfunctional consequences. Meeting compliance requirements may be mediated by factors such as the 'affect heuristic' and 'reflexive deliberations' as part of the 'structured agency' of nurses. It is the complexity of 'structured agency' which may explain why some nurses fail to respond to such things as sentinel events, a failure to recognize 'personal troubles' as 'public issues', a failure which to outsiders who expect rational and professional responses may seem inconceivable. There is a need to understand these processes so that nurses can critique the context in which they work and to move beyond either/or explanations of structure or agency for care failures, and professional dishonesty. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Impact of Menstrual Cycle Phase on Economic Choice and Rationality.

PubMed

Lazzaro, Stephanie C; Rutledge, Robb B; Burghart, Daniel R; Glimcher, Paul W

2016-01-01

It is well known that hormones affect both brain and behavior, but less is known about the extent to which hormones affect economic decision-making. Numerous studies demonstrate gender differences in attitudes to risk and loss in financial decision-making, often finding that women are more loss and risk averse than men. It is unclear what drives these effects and whether cyclically varying hormonal differences between men and women contribute to differences in economic preferences. We focus here on how economic rationality and preferences change as a function of menstrual cycle phase in women. We tested adherence to the Generalized Axiom of Revealed Preference (GARP), the standard test of economic rationality. If choices satisfy GARP then there exists a well-behaved utility function that the subject's decisions maximize. We also examined whether risk attitudes and loss aversion change as a function of cycle phase. We found that, despite large fluctuations in hormone levels, women are as technically rational in their choice behavior as their male counterparts at all phases of the menstrual cycle. However, women are more likely to choose risky options that can lead to potential losses while ovulating; during ovulation women are less loss averse than men and therefore more economically rational than men in this regard. These findings may have market-level implications: ovulating women more effectively maximize expected value than do other groups.

The Impact of Menstrual Cycle Phase on Economic Choice and Rationality

PubMed Central

Lazzaro, Stephanie C.; Rutledge, Robb B.; Burghart, Daniel R.; Glimcher, Paul W.

2016-01-01

It is well known that hormones affect both brain and behavior, but less is known about the extent to which hormones affect economic decision-making. Numerous studies demonstrate gender differences in attitudes to risk and loss in financial decision-making, often finding that women are more loss and risk averse than men. It is unclear what drives these effects and whether cyclically varying hormonal differences between men and women contribute to differences in economic preferences. We focus here on how economic rationality and preferences change as a function of menstrual cycle phase in women. We tested adherence to the Generalized Axiom of Revealed Preference (GARP), the standard test of economic rationality. If choices satisfy GARP then there exists a well-behaved utility function that the subject’s decisions maximize. We also examined whether risk attitudes and loss aversion change as a function of cycle phase. We found that, despite large fluctuations in hormone levels, women are as technically rational in their choice behavior as their male counterparts at all phases of the menstrual cycle. However, women are more likely to choose risky options that can lead to potential losses while ovulating; during ovulation women are less loss averse than men and therefore more economically rational than men in this regard. These findings may have market-level implications: ovulating women more effectively maximize expected value than do other groups. PMID:26824245

Monte Carlo turbulence simulation using rational approximations to von Karman spectra

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, C. W.

1986-01-01

Turbulence simulation is computationally much simpler using rational spectra, but turbulence falls off as f exp -5/3 in frequency ranges of interest to aircraft response and as predicted by von Karman's model. Rational approximations to von Karman spectra should satisfy three requirements: (1) the rational spectra should provide a good approximation to the von Karman spectra in the frequency range of interest; (2) for stability, the resulting rational transfer function should have all its poles in the left half-plane; and (3) at high frequencies, the rational spectra must fall off as an integer power of frequency, and since the -2 power is closest to the -5/3 power, the rational approximation should roll off as the -2 power at high frequencies. Rational approximations to von Karman spectra that satisfy these three criteria are presented, along with spectra from simulated turbulence. Agreement between the spectra of the simulated turbulence and von Karman spectra is excellent.

Comparison of Peak-Flow Estimation Methods for Small Drainage Basins in Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Hebson, Charles; Lombard, Pamela J.; Mann, Alexander

2007-01-01

Understanding the accuracy of commonly used methods for estimating peak streamflows is important because the designs of bridges, culverts, and other river structures are based on these flows. Different methods for estimating peak streamflows were analyzed for small drainage basins in Maine. For the smallest basins, with drainage areas of 0.2 to 1.0 square mile, nine peak streamflows from actual rainfall events at four crest-stage gaging stations were modeled by the Rational Method and the Natural Resource Conservation Service TR-20 method and compared to observed peak flows. The Rational Method had a root mean square error (RMSE) of -69.7 to 230 percent (which means that approximately two thirds of the modeled flows were within -69.7 to 230 percent of the observed flows). The TR-20 method had an RMSE of -98.0 to 5,010 percent. Both the Rational Method and TR-20 underestimated the observed flows in most cases. For small basins, with drainage areas of 1.0 to 10 square miles, modeled peak flows were compared to observed statistical peak flows with return periods of 2, 50, and 100 years for 17 streams in Maine and adjoining parts of New Hampshire. Peak flows were modeled by the Rational Method, the Natural Resources Conservation Service TR-20 method, U.S. Geological Survey regression equations, and the Probabilistic Rational Method. The regression equations were the most accurate method of computing peak flows in Maine for streams with drainage areas of 1.0 to 10 square miles with an RMSE of -34.3 to 52.2 percent for 50-year peak flows. The Probabilistic Rational Method was the next most accurate method (-38.5 to 62.6 percent). The Rational Method (-56.1 to 128 percent) and particularly the TR-20 method (-76.4 to 323 percent) had much larger errors. Both the TR-20 and regression methods had similar numbers of underpredictions and overpredictions. The Rational Method overpredicted most peak flows and the Probabilistic Rational Method tended to overpredict peak flows from the smaller (less than 5 square miles) drainage basins and underpredict peak flows from larger drainage basins. The results of this study are consistent with the most comprehensive analysis of observed and modeled peak streamflows in the United States, which analyzed statistical peak flows from 70 drainage basins in the Midwest and the Northwest.

Intrinsic disorder as a generalizable strategy for the rational design of highly responsive, allosterically cooperative receptors.

PubMed

Simon, Anna J; Vallée-Bélisle, Alexis; Ricci, Francesco; Plaxco, Kevin W

2014-10-21

Control over the sensitivity with which biomolecular receptors respond to small changes in the concentration of their target ligand is critical for the proper function of many cellular processes. Such control could likewise be of utility in artificial biotechnologies, such as biosensors, genetic logic gates, and "smart" materials, in which highly responsive behavior is of value. In nature, the control of molecular responsiveness is often achieved using "Hill-type" cooperativity, a mechanism in which sequential binding events on a multivalent receptor are coupled such that the first enhances the affinity of the next, producing a steep, higher-order dependence on target concentration. Here, we use an intrinsic-disorder-based mechanism that can be implemented without requiring detailed structural knowledge to rationally introduce this potentially useful property into several normally noncooperative biomolecules. To do so, we fabricate a tandem repeat of the receptor that is destabilized (unfolded) via the introduction of a long, unstructured loop. The first binding event requires the energetically unfavorable closing of this loop, reducing its affinity relative to that of the second binding event, which, in contrast occurs at a preformed site. Using this approach, we have rationally introduced cooperativity into three unrelated DNA aptamers, achieving in the best of these a Hill coefficient experimentally indistinguishable from the theoretically expected maximum. The extent of cooperativity and thus the steepness of the binding transition are, moreover, well modeled as simple functions of the energetic cost of binding-induced folding, speaking to the quantitative nature of this design strategy.

A Response-Time Approach to Comparing Generalized Rational and Take-the-Best Models of Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bergert, F. Bryan; Nosofsky, Robert M.

2007-01-01

The authors develop and test generalized versions of take-the-best (TTB) and rational (RAT) models of multiattribute paired-comparison inference. The generalized models make allowances for subjective attribute weighting, probabilistic orders of attribute inspection, and noisy decision making. A key new test involves a response-time (RT)…

Random Behaviour or Rational Choice? Family Planning, Teenage Pregnancy and Sexually Transmitted Infections

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paton, David

2006-01-01

Rational choice models of teenage sexual behaviour lead to radically different predictions than do models that assume such behaviour is random. Existing empirical evidence has not been able to distinguish conclusively between these competing models. I use regional data from England between 1998 and 2001 to examine the impact of recent increases in…

Rational Adaptation under Task and Processing Constraints: Implications for Testing Theories of Cognition and Action

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howes, Andrew; Lewis, Richard L.; Vera, Alonso

2009-01-01

The authors assume that individuals adapt rationally to a utility function given constraints imposed by their cognitive architecture and the local task environment. This assumption underlies a new approach to modeling and understanding cognition--cognitively bounded rational analysis--that sharpens the predictive acuity of general, integrated…

Should Teachers Be Taught to Be Rational?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Floden, Robert E.; Feiman, Sharon

1981-01-01

Teacher education programs have long attempted to teach students to follow a rational mode of thinking. Recent research on teacher thinking has shown that a gap exists between how teachers think and the rational model. Such research should be used to give teacher educators insight into how their students think and learn. (JN)

The Role of Rationality in University Budgeting.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chaffee, Ellen Earle

1983-01-01

Although empirical accounts of organizational decision making often show that the process is not a rational one, a study of budgeting at Stanford University during the 1970s, while not conclusive or comprehensive, supported the claim that the institution's process was rational and provided a procedure for testing a decision-making model. (MSE)

Passionate Rationalism: The Role of Emotion in Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lakomski, Gabriele; Evers, Colin W.

2010-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to argue that emotion has a central role to play in rational decision making based on recent research in the neuroanatomy of emotion. As a result, traditional rational decision-making theories, including Herbert Simon's modified model of satisficing that sharply demarcates emotions and values from rationality…

A Critical Assessment of Combined Ligand-based and Structure-based Approaches to hERG Channel Blocker Modeling

PubMed Central

Du-Cuny, Lei; Chen, Lu; Zhang, Shuxing

2014-01-01

Blockade of hERG channel prolongs the duration of the cardiac action potential and is a common reason for drug failure in preclinical safety trials. Therefore, it is of great importance to develop robust in silico tools to predict potential hERG blockers in the early stages of drug discovery and development. Herein we described comprehensive approaches to assess the discrimination of hERG-active and -inactive compounds by combining QSAR modeling, pharmacophore analysis, and molecular docking. Our consensus models demonstrated high predictive capacity and improved enrichment, and they could correctly classify 91.8% of 147 hERG blockers from 351 inactives. To further enhance our modeling effort, hERG homology models were constructed and molecular docking studies were conducted, resulting in high correlations (R2=0.81) between predicted and experimental binding affinities. We expect our unique models can be applied to efficient screening for hERG blockades, and our extensive understanding of the hERG-inhibitor interactions will facilitate the rational design of drugs devoid of hERG channel activity and hence with reduced cardiac toxicities. PMID:21902220

Network marketing with bounded rationality and partial information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiet, Hoang Anh Tuan; Kim, Beom Jun

2008-08-01

Network marketing has been proposed and used as a way to spread the product information to consumers through social connections. We extend the previous game model of the network marketing on a small-world tree network and propose two games: In the first model with the bounded rationality, each consumer makes purchase decision stochastically, while in the second model, consumers get only partial information due to the finite length of social connections. Via extensive numerical simulations, we find that as the rationality is enhanced not only the consumer surplus but also the firm’s profit is increased. The implication of our results is also discussed.

Acting Irrationally to Improve Performance in Stochastic Worlds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belavkin, Roman V.

Despite many theories and algorithms for decision-making, after estimating the utility function the choice is usually made by maximising its expected value (the max EU principle). This traditional and 'rational' conclusion of the decision-making process is compared in this paper with several 'irrational' techniques that make choice in Monte-Carlo fashion. The comparison is made by evaluating the performance of simple decision-theoretic agents in stochastic environments. It is shown that not only the random choice strategies can achieve performance comparable to the max EU method, but under certain conditions the Monte-Carlo choice methods perform almost two times better than the max EU. The paper concludes by quoting evidence from recent cognitive modelling works as well as the famous decision-making paradoxes.

Feedback and the rationing of time and effort among competing tasks.

PubMed

Northcraft, Gregory B; Schmidt, Aaron M; Ashford, Susan J

2011-09-01

The study described here tested a model of how characteristics of the feedback environment influence the allocation of resources (time and effort) among competing tasks. Results demonstrated that performers invest more resources on tasks for which higher quality (more timely and more specific) feedback is available; this effect was partially mediated by task salience and task expectancies. Feedback timing and feedback specificity demonstrated both main and interaction effects on resource allocations. Results also demonstrated that performers do better on tasks for which higher quality feedback is available; this effect was mediated by resources allocated to tasks. The practical and theoretical implications of the role of the feedback environment in managing performance are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved

A neuroeconomic theory of rational addiction and nonlinear time-perception.

PubMed

Takahashi, Taiki

2011-01-01

Neuroeconomic conditions for "rational addiction" (Becker & Murphy 1988) have been unknown. This paper derived the conditions for "rational addiction" by utilizing a nonlinear time-perception theory of "hyperbolic" discounting, which is mathematically equivalent to the q-exponential intertemporal choice model based on Tsallis' statistics. It is shown that (i) Arrow-Pratt measure for temporal cognition corresponds to the degree of irrationality (i.e., Prelec's "decreasing impatience" parameter of temporal discounting) and (ii) rationality in addicts is controlled by a nondimensionalization parameter of the logarithmic time-perception function. Furthermore, the present theory illustrates the possibility that addictive drugs increase impulsivity via dopaminergic neuroadaptation without increasing irrationality. Future directions in the application of the model to studies in neuroeconomics are discussed.

Neural basis of quasi-rational decision making.

PubMed

Lee, Daeyeol

2006-04-01

Standard economic theories conceive homo economicus as a rational decision maker capable of maximizing utility. In reality, however, people tend to approximate optimal decision-making strategies through a collection of heuristic routines. Some of these routines are driven by emotional processes, and others are adjusted iteratively through experience. In addition, routines specialized for social decision making, such as inference about the mental states of other decision makers, might share their origins and neural mechanisms with the ability to simulate or imagine outcomes expected from alternative actions that an individual can take. A recent surge of collaborations across economics, psychology and neuroscience has provided new insights into how such multiple elements of decision making interact in the brain.

Retirement and death in office of U.S. Supreme Court justices.

PubMed

Stolzenberg, Ross M; Lindgren, James

2010-05-01

We construct demographic models of retirement and death in office of U.S. Supreme Court justices, a group that has gained demographic notice, evaded demographic analysis, and is said to diverge from expected retirement patterns. Models build on prior multistate labor force status studies, and data permit an unusually clear distinction between voluntary and "induced" retirement. Using data on every justice from 1789 through 2006, with robust, cluster-corrected, discrete-time, censored, event-history methods, we (1) estimate retirement effects of pension eligibility, age, health, and tenure on the timing of justices' retirements and deaths in office, (2) resolve decades of debate over the politicized departure hypothesis that justices tend to alter the timing of their retirements for the political benefit or detriment of the incumbent president, (3) reconsider the nature of rationality in retirement decisions, and (4) consider the relevance of organizational conditions as well as personal circumstances to retirement decisions. Methodological issues are addressed.

The Evolution of ICT Markets: An Agent-Based Model on Complex Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Liangjie; Wu, Bangtao; Chen, Zhong; Li, Li

Information and communication technology (ICT) products exhibit positive network effects.The dynamic process of ICT markets evolution has two intrinsic characteristics: (1) customers are influenced by each others’ purchasing decision; (2) customers are intelligent agents with bounded rationality.Guided by complex systems theory, we construct an agent-based model and simulate on complex networks to examine how the evolution can arise from the interaction of customers, which occur when they make expectations about the future installed base of a product by the fraction of neighbors who are using the same product in his personal network.We demonstrate that network effects play an important role in the evolution of markets share, which make even an inferior product can dominate the whole market.We also find that the intensity of customers’ communication can influence whether the best initial strategy for firms is to improve product quality or expand their installed base.

Optimal Decision-making Model of Integrated Water Resources Management - A Case of Hsinchu Water Resources Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S. Y.; Ho, C. C.; Chang, L. C.

2017-12-01

The public use water in Hsinchu are mainly supplied from Baoshan Reservoir, Second Baoshan Reservoir, Yongheshan Reservoir and Longen Weir. However, the increasing water demand, caused by development of the Hsinchu Science and Industrial Park, results in supply stable water getting more difficult. For stabilize water supply in Hsinchu, the study applies long-term and short-term plans to fulfill the water shortage. Developing an efficient methodology to define a cost-effective action portfolio is an important task. Hence, the study develops a novel decision model, the Stochastic Programming with Recourse Decision Model (SPRDM), to estimate a cost-effective action portfolio. The first-stage of SPRDM determine the long-term action portfolio and the portfolio accompany recourse information (the probability for water shortage event). The second-stage of SPRDM optimize the cost-effective action portfolio in response to the recourse information. In order to consider the uncertainty of reservoir sediment and demand growth, the study set 9 scenarios comprise optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic reservoir sediment and demand growth. The results show the optimal action portfolio consist of FengTain Lake and Panlon Weir, Hsinchu Desalination Plant, Domestic and Industrial Water long-term plans, and Emergency Backup Well, Irrigation Water Transference, Preliminary Water Rationing, Advanced Water Rationing and Water Transport from Other Districts short-term plans. The minimum expected cost of optimal action portfolio is NT$1.1002 billion. The results can be used as a reference for decision making because the results have considered the uncertainty of varied hydrology, reservoir sediment, and water demand growth.

The use of 'Omics technology to rationally improve industrial mammalian cell line performance.

PubMed

Lewis, Amanda M; Abu-Absi, Nicholas R; Borys, Michael C; Li, Zheng Jian

2016-01-01

Biologics represent an increasingly important class of therapeutics, with 7 of the 10 top selling drugs from 2013 being in this class. Furthermore, health authority approval of biologics in the immuno-oncology space is expected to transform treatment of patients with debilitating and deadly diseases. The growing importance of biologics in the healthcare field has also resulted in the recent approvals of several biosimilars. These recent developments, combined with pressure to provide treatments at lower costs to payers, are resulting in increasing need for the industry to quickly and efficiently develop high yielding, robust processes for the manufacture of biologics with the ability to control quality attributes within narrow distributions. Achieving this level of manufacturing efficiency and the ability to design processes capable of regulating growth, death and other cellular pathways through manipulation of media, feeding strategies, and other process parameters will undoubtedly be facilitated through systems biology tools generated in academic and public research communities. Here we discuss the intersection of systems biology, 'Omics technologies, and mammalian bioprocess sciences. Specifically, we address how these methods in conjunction with traditional monitoring techniques represent a unique opportunity to better characterize and understand host cell culture state, shift from an empirical to rational approach to process development and optimization of bioreactor cultivation processes. We summarize the following six key areas: (i) research applied to parental, non-recombinant cell lines; (ii) systems level datasets generated with recombinant cell lines; (iii) datasets linking phenotypic traits to relevant biomarkers; (iv) data depositories and bioinformatics tools; (v) in silico model development, and (vi) examples where these approaches have been used to rationally improve cellular processes. We critically assess relevant and state of the art research being conducted in academic, government and industrial laboratories. Furthermore, we apply our expertise in bioprocess to define a potential model for integration of these systems biology approaches into biologics development. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Immunogenicity Evaluation of a Rationally Designed Polytope Construct Encoding HLA-A*0201 Restricted Epitopes Derived from Leishmania major Related Proteins in HLA-A2/DR1 Transgenic Mice: Steps toward Polytope Vaccine

PubMed Central

Seyed, Negar; Taheri, Tahereh; Vauchy, Charline; Dosset, Magalie; Godet, Yann; Eslamifar, Ali; Sharifi, Iraj; Adotevi, Olivier; Borg, Christophe; Rohrlich, Pierre Simon; Rafati, Sima

2014-01-01

Background There are several reports demonstrating the role of CD8 T cells against Leishmania species. Therefore peptide vaccine might represent an effective approach to control the infection. We developed a rational polytope-DNA construct encoding immunogenic HLA-A2 restricted peptides and validated the processing and presentation of encoded epitopes in a preclinical mouse model humanized for the MHC-class-I and II. Methods and Findings HLA-A*0201 restricted epitopes from LPG-3, LmSTI-1, CPB and CPC along with H-2Kd restricted peptides, were lined-up together as a polytope string in a DNA construct. Polytope string was rationally designed by harnessing advantages of ubiquitin, spacers and HLA-DR restricted Th1 epitope. Endotoxin free pcDNA plasmid expressing the polytope was inoculated into humanized HLA-DRB1*0101/HLA-A*0201 transgenic mice intramuscularly 4 days after Cardiotoxin priming followed by 2 boosters at one week interval. Mice were sacrificed 10 days after the last booster, and splenocytes were subjected to ex-vivo and in-vitro evaluation of specific IFN-γ production and in-vitro cytotoxicity against individual peptides by ELISpot and standard chromium-51(51Cr) release assay respectively. 4 H-2Kd and 5 HLA-A*0201 restricted peptides were able to induce specific CD8 T cell responses in BALB/C and HLA-A2/DR1 mice respectively. IFN-γ and cytolytic activity together discriminated LPG-3-P1 as dominant, LmSTI-1-P3 and LmSTI-1-P6 as subdominant with both cytolytic activity and IFN-γ production, LmSTI-1-P4 and LPG-3-P5 as subdominant with only IFN-γ production potential. Conclusions Here we described a new DNA-polytope construct for Leishmania vaccination encompassing immunogenic HLA-A2 restricted peptides. Immunogenicity evaluation in HLA-transgenic model confirmed CD8 T cell induction with expected affinities and avidities showing almost efficient processing and presentation of the peptides in relevant preclinical model. Further evaluation will determine the efficacy of this polytope construct protecting against infectious challenge of Leishmania. Fortunately HLA transgenic mice are promising preclinical models helping to speed up immunogenicity analysis in a human related mouse model. PMID:25310094

Testing the junk-food hypothesis on marine birds: Effects of prey type on growth and development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romano, Marc D.; Piatt, John F.; Roby, D.D.

2006-01-01

The junk-food hypothesis attributes declines in productivity of marine birds and mammals to changes in the species of prey they consume and corresponding differences in nutritional quality of those prey. To test this hypothesis nestling Black-legged Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) and Tufted Puffins (Fratercula cirrhata) were raised in captivity under controlled conditions to determine whether the type and quality of fish consumed by young seabirds constrains their growth and development. Some nestlings were fed rations of Capelin (Mallotus villosus), Herring (Clupea pallasi) or Sand Lance (Ammodytes hexapterus) and their growth was compared with nestlings raised on equal biomass rations of Walleye Pollock (Theragra chalcograma). Nestlings fed rations of herring, sand lance, or capelin experienced higher growth increments than nestlings fed pollock. The energy density of forage fish fed to nestlings had a marked effect on growth increments and could be expected to have an effect on pre- and post-fledging survival of nestlings in the wild. These results provide empirical support for the junk-food hypothesis.

The Rationality Debate: Application of Cognitive Psychology to Mathematics Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leron, Uri; Hazzan, Orit

2006-01-01

Research in mathematics education usually attempts to look into students' learning and other mental processes. It could therefore be expected to build on knowledge acquired within the academic discipline of cognitive psychology. Our aim in this paper is to show how some recent developments in cognitive psychology can help interpret empirical…

Writing: Clearing the Mind for Action.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neff, Bonita Dostal

Many communication majors expect to do little written communication, since skill in oral communication is more developed if not preferred. Before a student writes or becomes engaged in the rational and logical process of evaluating writing, he or she is in the stage of clearing the mind for action. A non-rationalistic approach to writing seeks to…

Authority Base, Denomination, Moral Philosophy and the Power Strategies Used by Clergymen.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Falbo, Toni; And Others

Clergymen are regarded by their congregations as having the authority to influence church members and clergymen are expected to exert influence. Three types of clerical authority have been identified: charismatic, traditional, and legal-rational. The common assumption that people select power strategies that are consistent with their perceptions…

Are Graduate Students Rational? Evidence from the Market for Biomedical Scientists

PubMed Central

Blume-Kohout, Margaret E.; Clack, John W.

2013-01-01

The U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) budget expansion from 1998 through 2003 increased demand for biomedical research, raising relative wages and total employment in the market for biomedical scientists. However, because research doctorates in biomedical sciences can often take six years or more to complete, the full labor supply response to such changes in market conditions is not immediate, but rather is observed over a period of several years. Economic rational expectations models assume that prospective students anticipate these future changes, and also that students take into account the opportunity costs of their pursuing graduate training. Prior empirical research on student enrollment and degree completions in science and engineering (S&E) fields indicates that “cobweb” expectations prevail: that is, at least in theory, prospective graduate students respond to contemporaneous changes in market wages and employment, but do not forecast further changes that will arise by the time they complete their degrees and enter the labor market. In this article, we analyze time-series data on wages and employment of biomedical scientists versus alternative careers, on completions of S&E bachelor's degrees and biomedical sciences PhDs, and on research expenditures funded both by NIH and by biopharmaceutical firms, to examine the responsiveness of the biomedical sciences labor supply to changes in market conditions. Consistent with previous studies, we find that enrollments and completions in biomedical sciences PhD programs are responsive to market conditions at the time of students' enrollment. More striking, however, is the close correspondence between graduate student enrollments and completions, and changes in availability of NIH-funded traineeships, fellowships, and research assistantships. PMID:24376573

Assessing the impact of heart failure specialist services on patient populations.

PubMed

Lyratzopoulos, Georgios; Cook, Gary A; McElduff, Patrick; Havely, Daniel; Edwards, Richard; Heller, Richard F

2004-05-24

The assessment of the impact of healthcare interventions may help commissioners of healthcare services to make optimal decisions. This can be particularly the case if the impact assessment relates to specific patient populations and uses timely local data. We examined the potential impact on readmissions and mortality of specialist heart failure services capable of delivering treatments such as b-blockers and Nurse-Led Educational Intervention (N-LEI). Statistical modelling of prevented or postponed events among previously hospitalised patients, using estimates of: treatment uptake and contraindications (based on local audit data); treatment effectiveness and intolerance (based on literature); and annual number of hospitalization per patient and annual risk of death (based on routine data). Optimal treatment uptake among eligible but untreated patients would over one year prevent or postpone 11% of all expected readmissions and 18% of all expected deaths for spironolactone, 13% of all expected readmisisons and 22% of all expected deaths for b-blockers (carvedilol) and 20% of all expected readmissions and an uncertain number of deaths for N-LEI. Optimal combined treatment uptake for all three interventions during one year among all eligible but untreated patients would prevent or postpone 37% of all expected readmissions and a minimum of 36% of all expected deaths. In a population of previously hospitalised patients with low previous uptake of b-blockers and no uptake of N-LEI, optimal combined uptake of interventions through specialist heart failure services can potentially help prevent or postpone approximately four times as many readmissions and a minimum of twice as many deaths compared with simply optimising uptake of spironolactone (not necessarily requiring specialist services). Examination of the impact of different heart failure interventions can inform rational planning of relevant healthcare services.

Adaptive non-interventional heuristics for covariation detection in causal induction: model comparison and rational analysis.

PubMed

Hattori, Masasi; Oaksford, Mike

2007-09-10

In this article, 41 models of covariation detection from 2 × 2 contingency tables were evaluated against past data in the literature and against data from new experiments. A new model was also included based on a limiting case of the normative phi-coefficient under an extreme rarity assumption, which has been shown to be an important factor in covariation detection (McKenzie & Mikkelsen, 2007) and data selection (Hattori, 2002; Oaksford & Chater, 1994, 2003). The results were supportive of the new model. To investigate its explanatory adequacy, a rational analysis using two computer simulations was conducted. These simulations revealed the environmental conditions and the memory restrictions under which the new model best approximates the normative model of covariation detection in these tasks. They thus demonstrated the adaptive rationality of the new model. 2007 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

From art to science: a new epistemological status for medicine? On expectations regarding personalized medicine.

PubMed

Wiesing, Urban

2017-12-20

Personalized medicine plays an important role in the development of current medicine. Among the numerous statements regarding the future of personalized medicine, some can be found that accord medicine a new scientific status. Medicine will be transformed from an art to a science due to personalized medicine. This prognosis is supported by references to models of historical developments. The article examines what is meant by this prognosis, what consequences it entails, and how feasible it is. It refers to the long tradition of epistemological thinking in medicine and the use of historical models for the development of medicine. The possible answers to the question "art or science" are systematized with respect to the core question about the relationship between knowledge and action. The prediction for medicine to develop from an 'empirical healing art' to a 'rational, molecular science' is nonsensical from an epistemological point of view. The historical models employed to substantiate the development of personalized medicine are questionable.

The translational potential of human induced pluripotent stem cells for clinical neurology : The translational potential of hiPSCs in neurology.

PubMed

Devine, Helen; Patani, Rickie

2017-04-01

The induced pluripotent state represents a decade-old Nobel prize-winning discovery. Human-induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSCs) are generated by the nuclear reprogramming of any somatic cell using a variety of established but evolving methods. This approach offers medical science unparalleled experimental opportunity to model an individual patient's disease "in a dish." HiPSCs permit developmentally rationalized directed differentiation into any cell type, which express donor cell mutation(s) at pathophysiological levels and thus hold considerable potential for disease modeling, drug discovery, and potentially cell-based therapies. This review will focus on the translational potential of hiPSCs in clinical neurology and the importance of integrating this approach with complementary model systems to increase the translational yield of preclinical testing for the benefit of patients. This strategy is particularly important given the expected increase in prevalence of neurodegenerative disease, which poses a major burden to global health over the coming decades.

Influence of individual rationality on continuous double auction markets with networked traders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Junhuan

2018-04-01

This paper investigates the influence of individual rationality of buyers and sellers on continuous double auction market outcomes in terms of the proportion of boundedly-rational buyers and sellers. The individual rationality is discussed in a social network artificial stock market model by embedding network formation and information set. Traders automatically select the most profitable trading strategy based on individual and social learning of the profits and trading strategies of themselves and their neighbors, and submit orders to markets. The results show that (i) a higher proportion of boundedly-rational sellers induces a higher market price, higher sellers' profits and a higher market efficiency; (ii) a higher proportion of boundedly-rational sellers induces a lower number of trades and lower buyers' profits; (iii) a higher proportion of boundedly-rational buyers induces a lower market price, a lower number of trades, and lower sellers' profits; (iv) a higher proportion of boundedly-rational buyers induces higher buyers' profits and a higher market efficiency.

Rational Speculative Bubble Size in Gold, Hang Seng, S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 Index During Year 2008 to 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borhan, Nurharyanti; Halim, Nurfadhlina Abdul; Amir, W. Ahmad Wan Muhammad

2017-09-01

A rational speculative bubble is a surge in asset prices that exceed its intrinsic value. Rational speculative bubbles are among the ascription which may lead to the collapse of an economic system. Rational speculative bubble cannot be created but it comes into existence when assets started to be traded. Financial rational speculative bubble and burst have negative effect on the economy and markets. Financial rational speculative bubbles are difficult to detect. This study aims to shows the size of rational speculative bubble in four markets, which are gold, Hang Seng, S&P500 and Nikkei 225 during year 2008 to 2016. In this study, generalized Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette model are used to find the size of the rational speculative bubble. Bubble detection is important for both sides of macro-economic decision makers and to the trader. Especially for a trading system that requires detailed knowledge about the time and the stage of the bubble burst.

Association of parental self-esteem and expectations with adolescents' anxiety about career and education.

PubMed

Salimi, Seyed-Hossein; Mirzamani, Seyed-Mahmoud; Shahiri-Tabarestani, Mostafa

2005-06-01

The views of students in their last year of high school on the effects of parental expectations on students' anxiety about education and a career were studied with 214 boys and girls from six single-sex high schools. Participants were asked to reply to two questionnaires, the Educational and Career Anxiety Questionnaire and the Parent's Self-esteem and Expectancy Questionnaire as well as to respond to a personal informational form. Analysis yielded negative significance for relations between parental self-esteem and expectations and students' anxiety about education and career. Moreover, the study showed that adolescent girls had significantly higher self-esteem than boys. In addition, comparing adolescents' views by their fathers' education showed that fathers with high education were more likely to have children with high parental self-esteem and rational expectations and lower anxiety about education and careers than those whose fathers had only primary education.

Can rational models be good accounts of developmental change? The case of language development at two time scales.

PubMed

Dawson, Colin R; Gerken, LouAnn

2012-01-01

Rational models of human perception and cognition have allowed researchers new ways to look at learning and the ability to make inferences from data. But how good are such models at accounting for developmental change? In this chapter, we address this question in the domain of language development, focusing on the speed with which developmental change takes place, and classifying different types of language development as either fast or slow. From the pattern of fast and slow development observed, we hypothesize that rational learning processes are generally well suited for handling fast processes over small amounts of input data. In contrast, we suggest that associative learning processes are generally better suited to slow development, in which learners accumulate information about what is typical of their language over time. Finally, although one system may be dominant for a particular component of language learning, we speculate that both systems frequently interact, with the associative system providing a source of emergent hypotheses to be evaluated by the rational system and the rational system serving to highlight which aspects of the learner's input need to be processed in greater depth by the associative system.

The Intensive Care Lifeboat: a survey of lay attitudes to rationing dilemmas in neonatal intensive care.

PubMed

Arora, C; Savulescu, J; Maslen, H; Selgelid, M; Wilkinson, D

2016-11-08

Resuscitation and treatment of critically ill newborn infants is associated with relatively high mortality, morbidity and cost. Guidelines relating to resuscitation have traditionally focused on the best interests of infants. There are, however, limited resources available in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), meaning that difficult decisions sometimes need to be made. This study explores the intuitions of lay people (non-health professionals) regarding resource allocation decisions in the NICU. The study design was a cross-sectional quantitative survey, consisting of 20 hypothetical rationing scenarios. There were 119 respondents who entered the questionnaire, and 109 who completed it. The respondents were adult US and Indian participants of the online crowdsourcing platform Mechanical Turk. Respondents were asked to decide which of two infants to treat in a situation of scarce resources. Demographic characteristics, personality traits and political views were recorded. Respondents were also asked to respond to a widely cited thought experiment involving rationing. The majority of respondents, in all except one scenario, chose the utilitarian option of directing treatment to the infant with the higher chance of survival, higher life expectancy, less severe disability, and less expensive treatment. As discrepancy between outcomes decreased, however, there was a statistically significant increase in egalitarian responses and decrease in utilitarian responses in scenarios involving chance of survival (P = 0.001), life expectancy (P = 0.0001), and cost of treatment (P = 0.01). In the classic 'lifeboat' scenario, all but two respondents were utilitarian. This survey suggests that in situations of scarcity and equal clinical need, non-health professionals support rationing of life-saving treatment based on probability of survival, duration of survival, cost of treatment or quality of life. However, where the difference in prognosis or cost is very small, non-health professionals preferred to give infants an equal chance of receiving treatment.

Rationality Validation of a Layered Decision Model for Network Defense

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wei, Huaqiang; Alves-Foss, James; Zhang, Du

2007-08-31

We propose a cost-effective network defense strategy built on three key: three decision layers: security policies, defense strategies, and real-time defense tactics for countering immediate threats. A layered decision model (LDM) can be used to capture this decision process. The LDM helps decision-makers gain insight into the hierarchical relationships among inter-connected entities and decision types, and supports the selection of cost-effective defense mechanisms to safeguard computer networks. To be effective as a business tool, it is first necessary to validate the rationality of model before applying it to real-world business cases. This paper describes our efforts in validating the LDMmore » rationality through simulation.« less

Quantum properties of double kicked systems with classical translational invariance in momentum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dana, Itzhack

2015-01-01

Double kicked rotors (DKRs) appear to be the simplest nonintegrable Hamiltonian systems featuring classical translational symmetry in phase space (i.e., in angular momentum) for an infinite set of values (the rational ones) of a parameter η . The experimental realization of quantum DKRs by atom-optics methods motivates the study of the double kicked particle (DKP). The latter reduces, at any fixed value of the conserved quasimomentum β ℏ , to a generalized DKR, the "β -DKR ." We determine general quantum properties of β -DKRs and DKPs for arbitrary rational η . The quasienergy problem of β -DKRs is shown to be equivalent to the energy eigenvalue problem of a finite strip of coupled lattice chains. Exact connections are then obtained between quasienergy spectra of β -DKRs for all β in a generically infinite set. The general conditions of quantum resonance for β -DKRs are shown to be the simultaneous rationality of η ,β , and a scaled Planck constant ℏS. For rational ℏS and generic values of β , the quasienergy spectrum is found to have a staggered-ladder structure. Other spectral structures, resembling Hofstadter butterflies, are also found. Finally, we show the existence of particular DKP wave-packets whose quantum dynamics is free, i.e., the evolution frequencies of expectation values in these wave-packets are independent of the nonintegrability. All the results for rational ℏS exhibit unique number-theoretical features involving η ,ℏS, and β .

Choice, social interaction and addiction: the social roots of addictive preferences.

PubMed

Skog, Ole-Jørgen

2005-01-01

It is argued that addicts, as people in general, are forward-looking and that they try to make the best of what they have got. However, this does not imply that they are fully rational. Cognitive defects, instabilities in preferences, and irrationalities in the form of wishful thinking and dynamical inconsistency play an important role in addictive behaviours. These "imperfections" in people's rationality may not have very large consequences in the case of ordinary goods, but their effect can be dramatic in relation to addictive goods. In the first part of the paper, the rational addiction theory and the empirical evidence that have been presented in support of the theory is reviewed. Regarding the conventional tests of the theory by econometric methods, it is argued that the tests are misguided, both theoretically and methodologically. Furthermore, it is claimed that the definition of addiction implicit in the rational addiction theory is unrealistic, and that the theory makes unrealistic assumptions about human nature. Some empirical evidence for these claims is reviewed. It is concluded that although the theory has its virtues, it faces serious problems and must be rejected in its original form. Secondly, the socio-cultural embeddedness of addictive behaviours, and the social roots of individual preferences, are discussed. These issues are more or less ignored in rational addiction theory. It is argued that we cannot expect to obtain a proper understanding of many addictive phenomena, unless they are seen in their proper socio-cultural context.

Developing Rational-Empirical Views of Intelligent Adaptive Behavior

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-08-01

biological frame to the information processing model and outline our understanding of intentions and beliefs that co-exist with rational and...notion that the evolution of cognition has produced memory/ knowledge systems that specialize in the processing of particular types of information ...1 PERMIS 2004 Developing Rational-Empirical Views of Intelligent Adaptive Behavior Gary Berg-Cross, Knowledge Strategies Potomac, Maryland

Evidence‐based disparities: examining the gap between health expectations and experiences

PubMed Central

Vashdi, Dana R.; Zalmanovitch, Yair

2012-01-01

Abstract Context  In a time of economic austerity, one of the most daunting questions is who decides on healthcare rationing? In the current study, we sought to examine if the public can in fact provide meaningful information regarding healthcare policy issues. Based on theories of public policy, this paper tries to find out if patients behave akin to ‘responsible citizens’ and can provide differentiated expectations between three healthcare dimensions. Methods  One thousand two‐hundred eleven individuals participated in a telephone interview. Participants were asked two series of questions, one regarding their views on the primary care, prevention and promotion practices they experience with their healthcare provider and one regarding the importance of these practices to them. We calculated a difference score representing the gap in each healthcare dimension. Findings  In all three healthcare dimensions, the mean gap is in the positive side of the axis indicating that the public does not receive what it expects to receive, or in policy terms there is ‘a responsiveness deficit’. The mean gap in relation to primary care is significantly lower than the mean gap in both preventive care and health promotion. Conclusions  The public can provide meaningful information even in areas of endless demand and can provide an addition point of view to be considered by policy makers in complicated healthcare rationing decisions. PMID:22738086

Fraction Multiplication and Division Models: A Practitioner Reference Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ervin, Heather K.

2017-01-01

It is well documented in literature that rational number is an important area of understanding in mathematics. Therefore, it follows that teachers and students need to have an understanding of rational number and related concepts such as fraction multiplication and division. This practitioner reference paper examines models that are important to…

Using Bar Representations as a Model for Connecting Concepts of Rational Number.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Middleton, James A.; van den Heuvel-Panhuizen, Marja; Shew, Julia A.

1998-01-01

Examines bar models as graphical representations of rational numbers and presents related real life problems. Concludes that, through pairing the fraction bars with ratio tables and other ways of teaching numbers, numeric strategies become connected with visual strategies that allow students with diverse ways of thinking to share their…

Refusals and Rejections: Designing Messages to Serve Multiple Goals.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saeki, Mimako; O'Keefe, Barbara J.

1994-01-01

Tests a rational model of the elaboration of themes found in rejection messages, using Japanese and American participants. Finds partial support for the initial rational model but notes two key revisions: identifies two new themes in rejection messages and suggests substantial differences in the way Americans and Japanese elaborate themes to serve…

The Evidence Base for Gypsy and Traveller Site Planning: A Story of Complexity and Tension

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Niner, Pat; Brown, Philip

2011-01-01

The linear technical-rational model has been heavily criticised as theoretically, politically and practically inadequate. The example of accommodation needs assessment as evidence for highly contentious decisions on Gypsy and Traveller caravan site provision suggests, however, that the technical-rational model has great value in coping with…

Beyond Pain: Coercing Violent Non-State Actors

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

October 19 1993.105 In the end, it took independent negotiators with unsurpassed credibility—Jimmy Carter, Sam Nunn, and Colin Powell—to...Penguin Press, 2004. Cooper, Drury . Economic Sanctions and Presidential Decisions: Model of Political Rationality. Gordonsville, VA...also Drury Cooper, Economic Sanctions and Presidential Decisions: Model of Political Rationality (Gordonsville, VA: Palgrave Macmillan, 2006). 71

A Model for Teaching Rational Behavior Therapy in a Public School Setting.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patton, Patricia L.

A training model for the use of rational behavior therapy (RBT) with emotionally disturbed adolescents in a school setting is presented, including a structured, didactic format consisting of five basic RBT training techniques. The training sessions, lasting 10 weeks each, are described. Also presented is the organization for the actual classroom…

Comparison of rational pharmacotherapy decision-making competence of general practitioners with intern doctors.

PubMed

Akici, A; Kalaça, S; Gören, M Z; Akkan, A G; Karaalp, A; Demir, D; Uğurlu, U; Oktay, S

2004-04-01

The aim of this study was to compare rational pharmacotherapy decision-making competency of interns (final-year medical students) who had received rational pharmacotherapy education (RPE), with their classmates at another medical school and general practitioners (GPs) who had not been exposed to RPE. A written, objective, structured clinical examination (OSCE), consisting of open and structured questions, was given to all participants. The participants were expected to make a treatment plan and prescribe for simple, uncomplicated beta-hemolytic streptococcal tonsillitis and mild-to-moderate essential hypertension patients, explain their proposed treatment plans and reasons affecting their drug choice. After the OSCE, a questionnaire to assess knowledge of the rational use of drugs was given to the participants. Fifty RPE(+) interns, 54 RPE(-) interns and 53 GPs participated in the study. Mean scores of RPE(+) interns were higher than those of GPs, which were in turn found to be higher than those of RPE(-) interns for all cases. The RPE(+) interns scored the highest regarding all components of rational pharmacotherapy process for all cases of both indications. However, participants in all groups had higher scores for the structured questions compared with the corresponding open ones for both diseases. Prescription analysis also revealed better results for RPE(+) interns regarding the number of drugs/prescription and treatment costs. The present study demonstrated that the final-year medical students (interns) markedly benefited from undergraduate RPE at the medical school in developing rational prescribing skills compared with their classmates from a medical school with traditional pharmacology education. Interestingly, they got higher scores than not only RPE(-) interns, but also than the GPs participating in this study, indicating the urgent need for continuous medical education programs in this field throughout the country for practicing GPs.

Modeling corneal surfaces with rational functions for high-speed videokeratoscopy data compression.

PubMed

Schneider, Martin; Iskander, D Robert; Collins, Michael J

2009-02-01

High-speed videokeratoscopy is an emerging technique that enables study of the corneal surface and tear-film dynamics. Unlike its static predecessor, this new technique results in a very large amount of digital data for which storage needs become significant. We aimed to design a compression technique that would use mathematical functions to parsimoniously fit corneal surface data with a minimum number of coefficients. Since the Zernike polynomial functions that have been traditionally used for modeling corneal surfaces may not necessarily correctly represent given corneal surface data in terms of its optical performance, we introduced the concept of Zernike polynomial-based rational functions. Modeling optimality criteria were employed in terms of both the rms surface error as well as the point spread function cross-correlation. The parameters of approximations were estimated using a nonlinear least-squares procedure based on the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. A large number of retrospective videokeratoscopic measurements were used to evaluate the performance of the proposed rational-function-based modeling approach. The results indicate that the rational functions almost always outperform the traditional Zernike polynomial approximations with the same number of coefficients.

A psychoanalytic model for human freedom and rationality.

PubMed

Macklin, R

1976-07-01

The nature and scope of freedom and rationality in man are explored in light of the problems posed by a deterministic framework for understanding and explaining human though, feeling, and behavior. It is argued that the sort of explanation afforded by a psychodynamic theory is fully compatible with attributing freedom and rationality to persons. In particular, psychoanalytic theory is able to account for the existence of causal laws governing all aspects of human behavior, while providing a schema by which we can distinguish rational from irrational behavior, and free acts from those that are unfree.

Effects of long-term feeding dairy cows on a diet supplemented with clinoptilolite on certain serum trace elements.

PubMed

Katsoulos, P D; Roubies, N; Panousis, N; Karatzias, H

2005-01-01

The objective of the experiment was to investigate the effect of clinoptilolite (a natural zeolite) supplementation in the ration of dairy cows on serum copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), and iron (Fe) concentrations. Fifty-two clinically healthy Holstein cows were randomly assigned to one of three groups according to their age and parity. The first group (group A) comprised 17 cows fed a ration supplemented with 1.25% clinoptilolite, the second group (group B) comprised also 17 cows was given a ration with 2.5% clinoptilolite, and the third group (group C, the control), comprised 18 cows fed the basal ration that did not contain any clinoptilolite. The experiment started when the cows entered the fourth week before the expected parturition and lasted until the end of lactation. All cows were fed the above concentrates during the entire experimental period. Blood samples were collected from each animal at the starting day of the experiment, at the day of calving, and at monthly intervals thereafter. All samples were tested for serum Cu, Zn, and Fe concentrations. The results showed that the 1.25 and 2.5% supplementation of clinoptilolite did not have any adverse effects on serum concentrations of Cu, Zn, and Fe.

A new rational-based optimal design strategy of ship structure based on multi-level analysis and super-element modeling method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Li; Wang, Deyu

2011-09-01

A new multi-level analysis method of introducing the super-element modeling method, derived from the multi-level analysis method first proposed by O. F. Hughes, has been proposed in this paper to solve the problem of high time cost in adopting a rational-based optimal design method for ship structural design. Furthermore, the method was verified by its effective application in optimization of the mid-ship section of a container ship. A full 3-D FEM model of a ship, suffering static and quasi-static loads, was used as the analyzing object for evaluating the structural performance of the mid-ship module, including static strength and buckling performance. Research results reveal that this new method could substantially reduce the computational cost of the rational-based optimization problem without decreasing its accuracy, which increases the feasibility and economic efficiency of using a rational-based optimal design method in ship structural design.

Cyborg pantocrator: international relations theory from decisionism to rational choice.

PubMed

Guilhot, Nicolas

2011-01-01

International relations theory took shape in the 1950s in reaction to the behavioral social science movement, emphasizing the limits of rationality in a context of high uncertainty, weak rules, and the possibility of lethal conflict. Yet the same discipline rapidly developed "rational choice" models applied to foreign policy decision making or nuclear strategy. This paper argues that this transformation took place almost seamlessly around the concept of "decision." Initially associated with an antirationalist or "decisionist" approach to politics, the sovereign decision became the epitome of political rationality when it was redescribed as "rational choice," thus easing the cultural acceptance of political realism in the postwar years. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Finance organizations, decisions and emotions.

PubMed

Pixley, Jocelyn

2002-03-01

Analyses of global financial markets are dominated by atomized models of decision-making and behavioural psychology ('exuberance' or 'panic'). In contrast, this paper argues that overwhelmingly, finance organizations rather than 'individuals' make decisions, and routinely use emotions in formulating expectations. Keynes introduced emotion (business confidence and animal spirits) but in economics, emotion remains individualistic and irrational. Luhmann's system theory lies at the other extreme, where emotions like trust and confidence are central variables, functional in the reduction of complexity in sub-systems like the economy. The gap between irrational emotions aggregated to 'herd' behaviour in economics, and 'system trust' applied to finance and money as a 'medium of communication' in sociology, remains largely unfilled. This paper argues that while organizations cannot be said to 'think' or 'feel', they are rational and emotional, because impersonal trust, confidence and their contrary emotions are unavoidable in decision-making due to fundamental uncertainty. These future-oriented emotions are prevalent within and between organizations in the financial sector, primarily in generating expectations. The dynamic of corporate activities of tense and ruthless struggle is a more plausible level of analysis than either financial 'manias' in aggregate or 'system trust'.

Punishment diminishes the benefits of network reciprocity in social dilemma experiments.

PubMed

Li, Xuelong; Jusup, Marko; Wang, Zhen; Li, Huijia; Shi, Lei; Podobnik, Boris; Stanley, H Eugene; Havlin, Shlomo; Boccaletti, Stefano

2018-01-02

Network reciprocity has been widely advertised in theoretical studies as one of the basic cooperation-promoting mechanisms, but experimental evidence favoring this type of reciprocity was published only recently. When organized in an unchanging network of social contacts, human subjects cooperate provided the following strict condition is satisfied: The benefit of cooperation must outweigh the total cost of cooperating with all neighbors. In an attempt to relax this condition, we perform social dilemma experiments wherein network reciprocity is aided with another theoretically hypothesized cooperation-promoting mechanism-costly punishment. The results reveal how networks promote and stabilize cooperation. This stabilizing effect is stronger in a smaller-size neighborhood, as expected from theory and experiments. Contrary to expectations, punishment diminishes the benefits of network reciprocity by lowering assortment, payoff per round, and award for cooperative behavior. This diminishing effect is stronger in a larger-size neighborhood. An immediate implication is that the psychological effects of enduring punishment override the rational response anticipated in quantitative models of cooperation in networks. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Modelling risk aversion to support decision-making for controlling zoonotic livestock diseases.

PubMed

van Asseldonk, M A P M; Bergevoet, R H M; Ge, L

2013-12-01

Zoonotic infectious livestock diseases are becoming a significant burden for both animal and human health and are rapidly gaining the attention of decision-makers who manage public health programmes. If control decisions have only monetary components, governments are generally regarded as being risk-neutral and the intervention strategy with the highest expected benefit (lowest expected net costs) should be preferred. However, preferences will differ and alternative intervention plans will prevail if (human) life and death outcomes are involved. A rational decision framework must therefore consider risk aversion in the decision-maker and controversial values related to public health. In the present study, risk aversion and its impact on both the utility for the monetary component and the utility for the non-monetary component is shown to be an important element when dealing with emerging zoonotic infectious livestock diseases and should not be ignored in the understanding and support of decision-making. The decision framework was applied to several control strategies for the reduction of human cases of brucellosis (Brucella melitensis) originating from sheep in Turkey.

Rational GARCH model: An empirical test for stock returns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takaishi, Tetsuya

2017-05-01

We propose a new ARCH-type model that uses a rational function to capture the asymmetric response of volatility to returns, known as the "leverage effect". Using 10 individual stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and two stock indices, we compare the new model with several other asymmetric ARCH-type models. We find that according to the deviance information criterion, the new model ranks first for several stocks. Results show that the proposed new model can be used as an alternative asymmetric ARCH-type model in empirical applications.

"(Un)informed College and Major Choice": Verification in an Alternate Setting. CEDR Working Paper. WP #2015-11

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huntington-Klein, Nick

2015-01-01

The decision to pursue formal education has significant labor market implications. To approach the decision rationally, a student must consider the costs and benefits of each available option. However, mounting empirical evidence suggests that reported expectations of costs and benefits are uncertain and vary across students. Hastings et al.…

An Investigation of Biases and Framing Effects for Risk Analysis: An Information Technology Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fox, Stuart A.

2012-01-01

An elusive and problematic theme of risk management has been managers' ability to effectively measure information technology (IT) risk in terms of degree of impact and probability of occurrence. The background of this problem delves deep into the rational understanding of probability, expected value, economic behavior, and subjective judgment.…

Improving Evaluation Use in Local School Settings. Optimizing Evaluation Use: Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Jean A.; And Others

A project for studying ways to optimize utilization of evaluation products in public schools is reported. The results indicate that the negative picture of use prevalent in recent literature stems from the unrealistic expectation that local decision-makers will behave in a classically rational manner. Such a view ignores the political settings of…

Unbending mind: Individuals with hoarding disorder do not modify decision strategy in response to feedback under risk.

PubMed

Pushkarskaya, Helen; Tolin, David F; Henick, Daniel; Levy, Ifat; Pittenger, Christopher

2018-01-01

Cognitive-behavioral models of hoarding disorder emphasize impairments in information processing and decision making in the genesis of hoarding symptomology. We propose and test the novel hypothesis that individuals with hoarding are maladaptively biased towards a deliberative decision style. While deliberative strategies are often considered normative, they are not always adaptable to the limitations imposed by many real-world decision contexts. We examined decision-making patterns in 19 individuals with hoarding and 19 healthy controls, using a behavioral task that quantifies selection of decision strategies in a novel environment with known probabilities (risk) in response to feedback. Consistent with prior literature, we found that healthy individuals tend to explore different decision strategies in the beginning of the experiment, but later, in response to feedback, they shift towards a compound strategy that balances expected values and risks. In contrast, individuals with hoarding follow a simple, deliberative, risk-neutral, value-based strategy from the beginning to the end of the task, irrespective of the feedback. This seemingly rational approach was not ecologically rational: individuals with hoarding and healthy individuals earned about the same amount of money, but it took individuals with hoarding a lot longer to do it: additional cognitive costs did not lead to additional benefits. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterizing Protease Specificity: How Many Substrates Do We Need?

PubMed Central

Schauperl, Michael; Fuchs, Julian E.; Waldner, Birgit J.; Huber, Roland G.; Kramer, Christian; Liedl, Klaus R.

2015-01-01

Calculation of cleavage entropies allows to quantify, map and compare protease substrate specificity by an information entropy based approach. The metric intrinsically depends on the number of experimentally determined substrates (data points). Thus a statistical analysis of its numerical stability is crucial to estimate the systematic error made by estimating specificity based on a limited number of substrates. In this contribution, we show the mathematical basis for estimating the uncertainty in cleavage entropies. Sets of cleavage entropies are calculated using experimental cleavage data and modeled extreme cases. By analyzing the underlying mathematics and applying statistical tools, a linear dependence of the metric in respect to 1/n was found. This allows us to extrapolate the values to an infinite number of samples and to estimate the errors. Analyzing the errors, a minimum number of 30 substrates was found to be necessary to characterize substrate specificity, in terms of amino acid variability, for a protease (S4-S4’) with an uncertainty of 5 percent. Therefore, we encourage experimental researchers in the protease field to record specificity profiles of novel proteases aiming to identify at least 30 peptide substrates of maximum sequence diversity. We expect a full characterization of protease specificity helpful to rationalize biological functions of proteases and to assist rational drug design. PMID:26559682

Rationality in collective decision-making by ant colonies

PubMed Central

Edwards, Susan C.; Pratt, Stephen C.

2009-01-01

Economic models of animal behaviour assume that decision-makers are rational, meaning that they assess options according to intrinsic fitness value and not by comparison with available alternatives. This expectation is frequently violated, but the significance of irrational behaviour remains controversial. One possibility is that irrationality arises from cognitive constraints that necessitate short cuts like comparative evaluation. If so, the study of whether and when irrationality occurs can illuminate cognitive mechanisms. We applied this logic in a novel setting: the collective decisions of insect societies. We tested for irrationality in colonies of Temnothorax ants choosing between two nest sites that varied in multiple attributes, such that neither site was clearly superior. In similar situations, individual animals show irrational changes in preference when a third relatively unattractive option is introduced. In contrast, we found no such effect in colonies. We suggest that immunity to irrationality in this case may result from the ants’ decentralized decision mechanism. A colony's choice does not depend on site comparison by individuals, but instead self-organizes from the interactions of multiple ants, most of which are aware of only a single site. This strategy may filter out comparative effects, preventing systematic errors that would otherwise arise from the cognitive limitations of individuals. PMID:19625319

A note on effects of rational bubble on portfolios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chan; Nie, Pu-yan

2018-02-01

In general, demand increases in wealth and decreases in price in microeconomics. We thereby propose a completely different perspective. By establishing expected utility function of investors, this article introduces one rational bubble asset and one bubble free asset in portfolios and focuses on the effects of bubble on investment portfolios from wealth and price perspectives. All conclusions are obtained by theoretical analysis with microeconomics theory. We argue that inferior goods and Giffen behavior can occur for the bubble free asset in microeconomic fields. The results can help investors to recognize bubble assets and bubble free assets more scientifically. Both bubble and bubble free assets can be inferior goods under some conditions, so we cannot to say which asset better than the other one absolutely.

Decision making in the short and long run: repeated gambles and rationality.

PubMed

Aloysius, John A

2007-05-01

Experimental evidence indicates that decision makers who reject a single play of a gamble may accept repeated plays of that gamble. The rationality of this pattern of preference has been investigated beginning with Samuelson's colleague (SC) who gained notoriety in a well-known paper. SC's pattern of preference is commonly viewed as a behavioural anomaly. Researchers from branches of psychology and economics have analysed the choice and, despite much debate, there remains considerable confusion. An axiomatic analysis of SC's choice has been used to motivate experimental studies in several disciplines. This paper identifies the axiomatic violation as that of an assumed rather than a normative condition. Therefore, contrary to popular belief, SC's choice is consistent with expected utility theory.

Considering rational self-interest as a disposition: organizational implications of other orientation.

PubMed

Meglino, Bruce M; Korsgaard, Audrey

2004-12-01

In contrast with major theories of attitudes and behavior, the authors propose that individuals are not equally motivated to pursue their self-interests. The authors show that differences in other orientation affect the extent to which actions and attitudes reflect self-interested calculation (instrumental rationality) and the extent to which beliefs represent their external environment (epistemic rationality). These differences have consequences for processes underlying a wide range of attitudes and behavior typically assumed to be rationally self-interested. Thus, the authors' model exposes a common explanation for diverse organizational phenomena. It also clarifies inconsistencies surrounding the validity of certain attitudinal and motivational models, the relationship between job attitudes and actions, cross-cultural differences in attitudes and behavior, escalation of commitment, and the relationship between chief executive officer characteristics and organizational performance. 2004 APA, all rights reserved

Research into the rationality and the application scopes of different melting models of nanoparticles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Qingshan; Xue, Yongqiang; Cui, Zixiang; Duan, Huijuan

2017-07-01

A rational melting model is indispensable to address the fundamental issue regarding the melting of nanoparticles. To ascertain the rationality and the application scopes of the three classical thermodynamic models, namely Pawlow, Rie, and Reiss melting models, corresponding accurate equations for size-dependent melting temperature of nanoparticles were derived. Comparison of the melting temperatures of Au, Al, and Sn nanoparticles calculated by the accurate equations with available experimental results demonstrates that both Reiss and Rie melting models are rational and capable of accurately describing the melting behaviors of nanoparticles at different melting stages. The former (surface pre-melting) is applicable to the stage from initial melting to critical thickness of liquid shell, while the latter (solid particles surrounded by a great deal of liquid) from the critical thickness to complete melting. The melting temperatures calculated by the accurate equation based on Reiss melting model are in good agreement with experimental results within the whole size range of calculation compared with those by other theoretical models. In addition, the critical thickness of liquid shell is found to decrease with particle size decreasing and presents a linear variation with particle size. The accurate thermodynamic equations based on Reiss and Rie melting models enable us to quantitatively and conveniently predict and explain the melting behaviors of nanoparticles at all size range in the whole melting process. [Figure not available: see fulltext.

Program Synthesizes UML Sequence Diagrams

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barry, Matthew R.; Osborne, Richard N.

2006-01-01

A computer program called "Rational Sequence" generates Universal Modeling Language (UML) sequence diagrams of a target Java program running on a Java virtual machine (JVM). Rational Sequence thereby performs a reverse engineering function that aids in the design documentation of the target Java program. Whereas previously, the construction of sequence diagrams was a tedious manual process, Rational Sequence generates UML sequence diagrams automatically from the running Java code.

Rational addiction to alcohol: panel data analysis of liquor consumption.

PubMed

Baltagi, Badi H; Griffin, James M

2002-09-01

Utilizing a panel data set of 42 states over the period 1959-1994, this paper estimates a rational addiction model for liquor consumption for the US. The empirical evidence is consistent with the rational addiction hypothesis proposed by Becker and Murphy. However, the results are sensitive to the assumption of homogeneity across states or over time. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Model of the Creative Process Based on Quantum Physics and Vedic Science.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rose, Laura Hall

1988-01-01

Using tenets from Vedic science and quantum physics, this model of the creative process suggests that the unified field of creation is pure consciousness, and that the development of the creative process within individuals mirrors the creative process within the universe. Rational and supra-rational creative thinking techniques are also described.…

Tuition Tax Credits and Vouchers: Political Finance Alternatives Rather than Rational Alternatives to Education Finance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomas, Robert G.

This paper describes the use of tuition tax credits and vouchers as political alternatives of choice and competition in a progressive society. School and public administration theorists identify two distinct finance models: the rational and the political. The first part of this paper examines and describes these two models. The next part…

Impacts of changing food webs in Lake Ontario: Implications of dietary fatty acids on growth of alewives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snyder, R.J.; Demarche, C.J.; Honeyfield, D.C.

2011-01-01

Declines in the abundance and condition of Great Lakes Alewives have been reported periodically during the last two decades, and the reasons for these declines remain unclear. To better understand how food web changes may influence Alewife growth and Wisconsin growth model predictions, we fed Alewives isocaloric diets high in omega-6 fatty acids (corn oil) or high in omega-3 fatty acids (fish oil). Alewives were fed the experimental diets at either 1% (“low ration”) or 3% (“high ration”) of their wet body weight per day. After six weeks, Alewives maintained on the high ration diets were significantly larger than those fed the low ration diets. Moreover, Alewives given the high ration fish oil diet were significantly larger than those maintained on the high ration corn oil diet after six weeks of growth. Body lipid, energy density and total body energy of Alewives on the high ration diets were significantly higher than those fed the low ration diets, and total body energy was significantly higher in Alewives given the high ration fish oil diet compared to those on the high ration corn oil diet. The current Wisconsin bioenergetics model underestimated growth and overestimated food consumption by Alewives in our study. Alewife thiaminase activity was similar among treatment groups. Overall, our results suggest that future food web changes in Lake Ontario, particularly if they involve decreases in the abundance of lipid rich prey items such as Mysis, may reduce Alewife growth rates and total body energy due to reductions in the availability of dietary omega-3 fatty acids.

Motivation.

PubMed

Chambers, David W

2007-01-01

Motivation is short-term focused energy. The oldest theories of motivation explain motivated activity as effort to overcome primary deficiencies, such as hunger or boredom. Such theories are difficult to apply because individuals learn idiosyncratic secondary motives as alternative ways of responding to these needs. Three prominent needs theories are discussed: Herzberg's theory of hygiene and motivational factors; McClelland's needs for achievement, power, and affiliation; and Maslow's hierarchy and theory of self-actualization. A second approach to motivation holds that individuals may be thought of as engaging in rational processes to maximize their self-interests. The presented examples of this approach include Vroom's expectancy theory, Adam's theory of inequality, and the Porter-Lawler model that addresses the question of whether satisfaction leads to high performance or vice versa. Finally, several theories of motivation as life orientation are developed.

Keeping warm with fur in cold water: entrainment of air in hairy surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasto, Alice; Regli, Marianne; Brun, Pierre-Thomas; Clanet, Christophe; Hosoi, Anette

2015-11-01

Instead of relying on a thick layer of body fat for insulation as many aquatic mammals do, fur seals and otters trap air in their dense fur for insulation in cold water. Using a combination of model experiments and theory, we rationalize this mechanism of air trapping underwater for thermoregulation. For the model experiments, hairy surfaces are fabricated using laser cut molds and casting samples with PDMS. Modeling the hairy texture as a network of capillary tubes, the imbibition speed of water into the hairs is obtained through a balance of hydrostatic pressure and viscous stress. In this scenario, the bending of the hairs and capillary forces are negligible. The maximum diving depth that can be achieved before the hairs are wetted to the roots is predicted from a comparison of the diving speed and imbibition speed. The amount of air that is entrained in hairy surfaces is greater than what is expected for classic Landau-Levich-Derjaguin plate plunging. A phase diagram with the parameters from experiments and biological data allows a comparison of the model system and animals.

Labor migration and risk aversion in less developed countries.

PubMed

Katz, E; Stark, O

1986-01-01

"In this paper we question the pioneering work of Todaro, which states that rural-to-urban labor migration in less developed countries (LDCs) is an individual response to a higher urban expected income. We demonstrate that rural-to-urban labor migration is perfectly rational even if urban expected income is lower than rural income. We achieve this under a set of fairly stringent conditions: an individual decision-making entity, a one-period planning horizon, and global risk aversion. We obtain the result that a small chance of reaping a high reward is sufficient to trigger rural-to-urban labor migration." excerpt

Study of a risk-based piping inspection guideline system.

PubMed

Tien, Shiaw-Wen; Hwang, Wen-Tsung; Tsai, Chih-Hung

2007-02-01

A risk-based inspection system and a piping inspection guideline model were developed in this study. The research procedure consists of two parts--the building of a risk-based inspection model for piping and the construction of a risk-based piping inspection guideline model. Field visits at the plant were conducted to develop the risk-based inspection and strategic analysis system. A knowledge-based model had been built in accordance with international standards and local government regulations, and the rational unified process was applied for reducing the discrepancy in the development of the models. The models had been designed to analyze damage factors, damage models, and potential damage positions of piping in the petrochemical plants. The purpose of this study was to provide inspection-related personnel with the optimal planning tools for piping inspections, hence, to enable effective predictions of potential piping risks and to enhance the better degree of safety in plant operations that the petrochemical industries can be expected to achieve. A risk analysis was conducted on the piping system of a petrochemical plant. The outcome indicated that most of the risks resulted from a small number of pipelines.

Structural model for fluctuations in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anand, Kartik; Khedair, Jonathan; Kühn, Reimer

2018-05-01

In this paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of a structural model for the dynamics of prices of assets traded in a market which takes the form of an interacting generalization of the geometric Brownian motion model. It is formally equivalent to a model describing the stochastic dynamics of a system of analog neurons, which is expected to exhibit glassy properties and thus many metastable states in a large portion of its parameter space. We perform a generating functional analysis, introducing a slow driving of the dynamics to mimic the effect of slowly varying macroeconomic conditions. Distributions of asset returns over various time separations are evaluated analytically and are found to be fat-tailed in a manner broadly in line with empirical observations. Our model also allows us to identify collective, interaction-mediated properties of pricing distributions and it predicts pricing distributions which are significantly broader than their noninteracting counterparts, if interactions between prices in the model contain a ferromagnetic bias. Using simulations, we are able to substantiate one of the main hypotheses underlying the original modeling, viz., that the phenomenon of volatility clustering can be rationalized in terms of an interplay between the dynamics within metastable states and the dynamics of occasional transitions between them.

Autogenerator-based modelling framework for development of strategic games simulations: rational pigs game extended.

PubMed

Fabac, Robert; Radošević, Danijel; Magdalenić, Ivan

2014-01-01

When considering strategic games from the conceptual perspective that focuses on the questions of participants' decision-making rationality, the very issues of modelling and simulation are rarely discussed. The well-known Rational Pigs matrix game has been relatively intensively analyzed in terms of reassessment of the logic of two players involved in asymmetric situations as gluttons that differ significantly by their attributes. This paper presents a successful attempt of using autogenerator for creating the framework of the game, including the predefined scenarios and corresponding payoffs. Autogenerator offers flexibility concerning the specification of game parameters, which consist of variations in the number of simultaneous players and their features and game objects and their attributes as well as some general game characteristics. In the proposed approach the model of autogenerator was upgraded so as to enable program specification updates. For the purpose of treatment of more complex strategic scenarios, we created the Rational Pigs Game Extended (RPGE), in which the introduction of a third glutton entails significant structural changes. In addition, due to the existence of particular attributes of the new player, "the tramp," one equilibrium point from the original game is destabilized which has an influence on the decision-making of rational players.

Autogenerator-Based Modelling Framework for Development of Strategic Games Simulations: Rational Pigs Game Extended

PubMed Central

Magdalenić, Ivan

2014-01-01

When considering strategic games from the conceptual perspective that focuses on the questions of participants' decision-making rationality, the very issues of modelling and simulation are rarely discussed. The well-known Rational Pigs matrix game has been relatively intensively analyzed in terms of reassessment of the logic of two players involved in asymmetric situations as gluttons that differ significantly by their attributes. This paper presents a successful attempt of using autogenerator for creating the framework of the game, including the predefined scenarios and corresponding payoffs. Autogenerator offers flexibility concerning the specification of game parameters, which consist of variations in the number of simultaneous players and their features and game objects and their attributes as well as some general game characteristics. In the proposed approach the model of autogenerator was upgraded so as to enable program specification updates. For the purpose of treatment of more complex strategic scenarios, we created the Rational Pigs Game Extended (RPGE), in which the introduction of a third glutton entails significant structural changes. In addition, due to the existence of particular attributes of the new player, “the tramp,” one equilibrium point from the original game is destabilized which has an influence on the decision-making of rational players. PMID:25254228

Evaluation of the efficiency of hospital antibiotic policy applied Dr Jan Biziel University Hospital No 2 in Bydgoszcz in 2009-2013.

PubMed

Kuziemski, Arkadiusz; Frankowska, Krystyna; Gonia, Ewa; Czerniak, Beata; Bakhurynska, Olena; Sobociński, Zbigniew

2015-01-01

The Hospital Infection Control Team (HICT) of Dr Jan Biziel University Hospital No 2 in Bydgoszcz developed and implemented the principles of a rational antibiotic therapy in 2008. A behavior algorithm has worked since 01.10.2008. Implementation of the principles of a rational antibiotic therapy was part of the hospital antibiotic policy. is to evaluate either introductory principles of the rational antibiotic therapy, after five-year experience lived up to expectations in the range specified by the authors. Hospital microbiological maps, comparisons of antibiotic cost, specification of microbiological tests made before and after introduction of the principles of a rational antibiotic therapy have been analyzed. Annual antibiotic consumption has been counted according to the defined daily dose (DDD) index created by the WHO. After 6 years of implementation of the rational antibiotic therapy principles, the decrease in number of isolated strains which are resistant to Klebsiella pneumoniae ESBL and Acinetobacter baumanii (resistant to carbapenems) has been indicated. The number of the Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolates has increased approximately three times, and the number of resistant isolates to carbapenem has grown six times. The cost of antibiotics has been gradually decreased in 2012 in order to represent 9,66% of all drug budget (without drug programs). Detailed analysis of antibiotic consumption has showed that after the implementation of rational antibiotic therapy principles the consumption of meropenem has increased twice in comparison to the all drugs. The number of microbiological tests grew from 0,20 to 0,29 per one patient, which means material to microbiological tests has been taken from every third patient. Annual DDD index calculated on 100 person-days has been reduced from 59,552 in 2007 to 39,90 in 2009, and it is 47,88 in 2013. The principles of rational antibiotic therapy in comparison with the other elements of antibiotic policy in hospital have caused positive changes in antibiotic ordinance. 1. It is required to adhere to the principles of a rational antibiotic therapy by medical staff mainly on the administrative restriction of access to antibiotics. 2. Monitoring changes in drug resistance of hospital flora is an essential element of the principles of a rational antibiotic therapy modification.

Ruijsenaars-Schneider three-body models with N = 2 supersymmetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galajinsky, Anton

2018-04-01

The Ruijsenaars-Schneider models are conventionally regarded as relativistic generalizations of the Calogero integrable systems. Surprisingly enough, their supersymmetric generalizations escaped attention. In this work, N = 2 supersymmetric extensions of the rational and hyperbolic Ruijsenaars-Schneider three-body models are constructed within the framework of the Hamiltonian formalism. It is also known that the rational model can be described by the geodesic equations associated with a metric connection. We demonstrate that the hyperbolic systems are linked to non-metric connections.

Local properties of magnetic reconnection in nonlinear resistive- and extended-magnetohydrodynamic toroidal simulations of the sawtooth crash

DOE PAGES

Beidler, M. T.; Cassak, P. A.; Jardin, S. C.; ...

2016-12-15

We diagnose local properties of magnetic reconnection during a sawtooth crash employing the three-dimensional toroidal, extended-magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code M3D-C 1. To do so, we sample simulation data in the plane in which reconnection occurs, the plane perpendicular to the helical (m, n) = (1, 1) mode at the q = 1 surface, where m and n are the poloidal and toroidal mode numbers and q is the safety factor. We study the nonlinear evolution of a particular test equilibrium in a non-reduced field representation using both resistive-MHD and extended-MHD models. We find growth rates for the extended-MHD reconnection process exhibitmore » a nonlinear acceleration and greatly exceed that of the resistive-MHD model, as is expected from previous experimental, theoretical, and computational work. We compare the properties of reconnection in the two simulations, revealing the reconnecting current sheets are locally different in the two models and we present the first observation of the quadrupole out-of-plane Hall magnetic field that appears during extended-MHD reconnection in a 3D toroidal simulation (but not in resistive-MHD). We also explore the dependence on toroidal angle of the properties of reconnection as viewed in the plane perpendicular to the helical magnetic field, finding qualitative and quantitative effects due to changes in the symmetry of the reconnection process. Furthermore, this study is potentially important for a wide range of magnetically confined fusion applications, from confirming simulations with extended-MHD effects are sufficiently resolved to describe reconnection, to quantifying local reconnection rates for purposes of understanding and predicting transport, not only at the q = 1 rational surface for sawteeth, but also at higher order rational surfaces that play a role in disruptions and edge-confinement degradation.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beidler, M. T.; Cassak, P. A.; Jardin, S. C.

We diagnose local properties of magnetic reconnection during a sawtooth crash employing the three-dimensional toroidal, extended-magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code M3D-C 1. To do so, we sample simulation data in the plane in which reconnection occurs, the plane perpendicular to the helical (m, n) = (1, 1) mode at the q = 1 surface, where m and n are the poloidal and toroidal mode numbers and q is the safety factor. We study the nonlinear evolution of a particular test equilibrium in a non-reduced field representation using both resistive-MHD and extended-MHD models. We find growth rates for the extended-MHD reconnection process exhibitmore » a nonlinear acceleration and greatly exceed that of the resistive-MHD model, as is expected from previous experimental, theoretical, and computational work. We compare the properties of reconnection in the two simulations, revealing the reconnecting current sheets are locally different in the two models and we present the first observation of the quadrupole out-of-plane Hall magnetic field that appears during extended-MHD reconnection in a 3D toroidal simulation (but not in resistive-MHD). We also explore the dependence on toroidal angle of the properties of reconnection as viewed in the plane perpendicular to the helical magnetic field, finding qualitative and quantitative effects due to changes in the symmetry of the reconnection process. Furthermore, this study is potentially important for a wide range of magnetically confined fusion applications, from confirming simulations with extended-MHD effects are sufficiently resolved to describe reconnection, to quantifying local reconnection rates for purposes of understanding and predicting transport, not only at the q = 1 rational surface for sawteeth, but also at higher order rational surfaces that play a role in disruptions and edge-confinement degradation.« less

Solution structures of chloroquine-ferriheme complexes modeled using MD simulation and investigated by EXAFS spectroscopy.

PubMed

Kuter, David; Streltsov, Victor; Davydova, Natalia; Venter, Gerhard A; Naidoo, Kevin J; Egan, Timothy J

2016-01-01

The interaction of chloroquine (CQ) and the μ-oxo dimer of iron(III) protoporphyrin IX (ferriheme) in aqueous solution was modeled using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Two models of the CQ-(μ-oxo ferriheme) complex were investigated, one involving CQ π-stacked with an unligated porphyrin face of μ-oxo ferriheme and the other in which CQ was docked between the two porphyrin rings. The feasibility of both models was tested by fitting computed structures to the experimental extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) spectrum of the CQ-(μ-oxo ferriheme) complex in frozen aqueous solution. The docked model produced better agreement with experimental data, suggesting that this is the more likely structure in aqueous solution. The EXAFS fit indicated a longer than expected Fe-O bond of 1.87Å, accounting for the higher than expected magnetic moment of the complex. As a consequence, the asymmetric Fe-O-Fe stretch shifts much lower in frequency and was identified in the precipitated solid at 744cm(-1) with the aid of the O(18) isomer shift. Three important CQ-ferriheme interactions were identified in the docked structure. These were a hydrogen bond between the oxide bridge of μ-oxo ferriheme and the protonated quinolinium nitrogen atom of CQ; π-stacking between the quinoline ring of CQ and the porphyrin rings; and a close contact between the 7-chloro substituent of CQ and the porphyrin methyl hydrogen atoms. These interactions can be used to rationalize previously observed structure-activity relationships for quinoline-ferriheme association. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Heuristics and Biases in Military Decision Making

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-10-01

rationality and is based on a linear, step-based model that generates a specific course of action and is useful for the examination of problems that...exhibit stability and are underpinned by assumptions of “technical- rationality .”5 The Army values MDMP as the sanctioned approach for solving...theory) which sought to describe human behavior as a rational maximization of cost-benefit decisions, Kahne- man and Tversky provided a simple

Clinical, social and relational determinants of paediatric ambulatory drug prescriptions due to respiratory tract infections in Italy.

PubMed

Ciofi degli Atti, Marta Luisa; Massari, Marco; Bella, Antonino; Boccia, Delia; Filia, Antonietta; Salmaso, Stefania

2006-12-01

Collecting information on patterns of drug prescriptions and on factors influencing prescribing decisions is fundamental for supporting the rational use of drugs. This study was aimed at investigating patterns of drug prescription in paediatric outpatients and at evaluating determinants of prescriptions for respiratory tract infections (RTIs). We conducted a national cross-sectional survey involving primary care paediatricians and parents. Diagnoses and prescriptions made at each consultation were described. Poisson regression models were used to analyse determinants of drug and antibiotic prescriptions for visits due to RTIs. A total of 4,302 physician and parent questionnaires were analysed. These corresponded to 2,151 visits, 792 of which were due to RTIs. Drugs were prescribed in 83.4% of RTI visits, while antibiotics were prescribed in 40.4%. According to paediatricians' perceptions, 84.2% of parents of children with a RTI expected to receive a drug prescription. Paediatricians' perception of parental expectations was the strongest determinant for prescription of drugs and specifically of antibiotics [adjusted relative risk (RR): 1.7 and 3.6, respectively; P < 0.001]. However, in 77.1% of RTI visits, paediatricians judged themselves as not being influenced at all by parents' expectations in their decision to prescribe. This study underscores that relational factors, in particular perceived parental expectations, are one of the leading factors of drug prescriptions in paediatric ambulatory care settings, reinforcing the opinion that communication between physicians and parents can affect prescription patterns.

Beyond Rational Decision-Making: Modelling the Influence of Cognitive Biases on the Dynamics of Vaccination Coverage

PubMed Central

Voinson, Marina; Billiard, Sylvain; Alvergne, Alexandra

2015-01-01

Background Theoretical studies predict that it is not possible to eradicate a disease under voluntary vaccination because of the emergence of non-vaccinating “free-riders” when vaccination coverage increases. A central tenet of this approach is that human behaviour follows an economic model of rational choice. Yet, empirical studies reveal that vaccination decisions do not necessarily maximize individual self-interest. Here we investigate the dynamics of vaccination coverage using an approach that dispenses with payoff maximization and assumes that risk perception results from the interaction between epidemiology and cognitive biases. Methods We consider a behaviour-incidence model in which individuals perceive actual epidemiological risks as a function of their opinion of vaccination. As a result of confirmation bias, sceptical individuals (negative opinion) overestimate infection cost while pro-vaccines individuals (positive opinion) overestimate vaccination cost. We considered a feedback between individuals and their environment as individuals could change their opinion, and thus the way they perceive risks, as a function of both the epidemiology and the most common opinion in the population. Results For all parameter values investigated, the infection is never eradicated under voluntary vaccination. For moderately contagious diseases, oscillations in vaccination coverage emerge because individuals process epidemiological information differently depending on their opinion. Conformism does not generate oscillations but slows down the cultural response to epidemiological change. Conclusion Failure to eradicate vaccine preventable disease emerges from the model because of cognitive biases that maintain heterogeneity in how people perceive risks. Thus, assumptions of economic rationality and payoff maximization are not mandatory for predicting commonly observed dynamics of vaccination coverage. This model shows that alternative notions of rationality, such as that of ecological rationality whereby individuals use simple cognitive heuristics, offer promising new avenues for modelling vaccination behaviour. PMID:26599688

Beyond Rational Decision-Making: Modelling the Influence of Cognitive Biases on the Dynamics of Vaccination Coverage.

PubMed

Voinson, Marina; Billiard, Sylvain; Alvergne, Alexandra

2015-01-01

Theoretical studies predict that it is not possible to eradicate a disease under voluntary vaccination because of the emergence of non-vaccinating "free-riders" when vaccination coverage increases. A central tenet of this approach is that human behaviour follows an economic model of rational choice. Yet, empirical studies reveal that vaccination decisions do not necessarily maximize individual self-interest. Here we investigate the dynamics of vaccination coverage using an approach that dispenses with payoff maximization and assumes that risk perception results from the interaction between epidemiology and cognitive biases. We consider a behaviour-incidence model in which individuals perceive actual epidemiological risks as a function of their opinion of vaccination. As a result of confirmation bias, sceptical individuals (negative opinion) overestimate infection cost while pro-vaccines individuals (positive opinion) overestimate vaccination cost. We considered a feedback between individuals and their environment as individuals could change their opinion, and thus the way they perceive risks, as a function of both the epidemiology and the most common opinion in the population. For all parameter values investigated, the infection is never eradicated under voluntary vaccination. For moderately contagious diseases, oscillations in vaccination coverage emerge because individuals process epidemiological information differently depending on their opinion. Conformism does not generate oscillations but slows down the cultural response to epidemiological change. Failure to eradicate vaccine preventable disease emerges from the model because of cognitive biases that maintain heterogeneity in how people perceive risks. Thus, assumptions of economic rationality and payoff maximization are not mandatory for predicting commonly observed dynamics of vaccination coverage. This model shows that alternative notions of rationality, such as that of ecological rationality whereby individuals use simple cognitive heuristics, offer promising new avenues for modelling vaccination behaviour.

Public and private health-care financing with alternate public rationing rules.

PubMed

Cuff, Katherine; Hurley, Jeremiah; Mestelman, Stuart; Muller, Andrew; Nuscheler, Robert

2012-02-01

We develop a model to analyze parallel public and private health-care financing under two alternative public sector rationing rules: needs-based rationing and random rationing. Individuals vary in income and severity of illness. There is a limited supply of health-care resources used to treat individuals, causing some individuals to go untreated. Insurers (both public and private) must bid to obtain the necessary health-care resources to treat their beneficiaries. Given individuals' willingnesses-to-pay for private insurance are increasing in income, the introduction of private insurance diverts treatment from relatively poor to relatively rich individuals. Further, the impact of introducing parallel private insurance depends on the rationing mechanism in the public sector. We show that the private health insurance market is smaller when the public sector rations according to need than when allocation is random. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Towards Rational Decision-Making in Secondary Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cohn, Elchanan

Without a conscious effort to achieve optimum resource allocation, there is a real danger that educational resources may be wasted. This document uses input-output analysis to develop a model for rational decision-making in secondary education. (LLR)

Vaccination, herd behavior, and herd immunity.

PubMed

Cohen, Matan J; Brezis, Mayer; Block, Colin; Diederich, Adele; Chinitz, David

2013-11-01

During the 2009 outbreak of novel influenza AH1N1, insufficient data were available to adequately inform decision makers about benefits and risks of vaccination and disease. We hypothesized that individuals would opt to mimic their peers, having no better decision anchor. We used Game Theory, decision analysis, and transmission models to simulate the impact of subjective risks and preference estimates on vaccination behavior. We asked 95 students to provide estimates of risk and health state valuations with regard to AH1N1 infection, complications, and expectations of vaccine benefits and risks. These estimates were included in a sequential chain of models: a dynamic epidemic model, a decision tree, and a population-level model. Additionally, participants' intentions to vaccinate or not at varying vaccination rates were documented. The model showed that at low vaccination rates, vaccination dominated. When vaccination rates increased above 78%, nonvaccination was the dominant strategy. We found that vaccination intentions did not correspond to the shift in strategy dominance and segregated to 3 types of intentions: regardless of what others do 29/95 (31%) intended to vaccinate while 27/95 (28%) did not; among 39 of 95 (41%) intention was positively associated with putative vaccination rates. Some people conform to the majority's choice, either shifting epidemic dynamics toward herd immunity or, conversely, limiting societal goals. Policy leaders should use models carefully, noting their limitations and theoretical assumptions. Behavior drivers were not explicitly explored in this study, and the discrepant results beg further investigation. Models including real subjective perceptions with empiric or subjective probabilities can provide insight into deviations from expected rational behavior and suggest interventions in order to provide better population outcomes.

Theoretical Investigations into Defected Graphene for Electrochemical Reduction of CO 2

DOE PAGES

Siahrostami, Samira; Jiang, Kun; Karamad, Mohammadreza; ...

2017-10-10

Here, despite numerous experimental efforts that have been dedicated to studying carbon-based materials for electrochemical reduction of CO 2, a rationalization of the associated trends in the intrinsic activity of different active motifs has so far been elusive. In the present work, we employ density functional theory calculations to examine a variety of different active sites in N-doped graphene to give a comprehensive outline of the trends in activity. We find that adsorption energies of COOH* and CO* do not follow the linear scaling relationships observed for the pure transition metals, and this unique scaling is rationalized through differences inmore » electronic structure between transition metals and defected graphene. This finding rationalizes most of the experimental observations on the carbon-based materials which present promising catalysts for the two-electron reduction of CO 2 to CO. With this simple thermodynamic analysis, we identify several active sites that are expected to exhibit a comparable or even better activity to the state-of-the-art gold catalyst, and several configurations are suggested to be selective for CO 2RR over HER.« less

When Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence: Rational Inferences from Absent Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hsu, Anne S.; Horng, Andy; Griffiths, Thomas L.; Chater, Nick

2017-01-01

Identifying patterns in the world requires noticing not only unusual occurrences, but also unusual absences. We examined how people learn from absences, manipulating the extent to which an absence is expected. People can make two types of inferences from the absence of an event: either the event is possible but has not yet occurred, or the event…

Can mutualistic morality predict how individuals deal with benefits they did not deserve?

PubMed

Bonnefon, Jean-François; Girotto, Vittorio; Heimann, Marco; Legrenzi, Paolo

2013-02-01

An individual obtains an unfair benefit and faces the dilemma of either hiding it (to avoid being excluded from future interactions) or disclosing it (to avoid being discovered as a deceiver). In line with the target article, we expect that this dilemma will be solved by a fixed individual strategy rather than a case-by-case rational calculation.

Effect of Anionic Salt and Highly Fermentable Carbohydrate Supplementations on Urine pH and on Experimentally Induced Hypocalcaemia in Cows

PubMed Central

Mellau, LSB; Jørgensen, RJ; Bartlett, PC; Enemark, JMD; Hansen, AK

2004-01-01

The objective of this experiment was to determine the effect of dietary grain on calcium homeostasis. Six rumen-fistulated dairy cows with 3 or more previous lactations and no history of parturient paresis were randomly assigned to a sequence of diets in a crossover study with 4 periods of 10 days each. Dietary treatments were: A control ration consisting of wrap grass silage alone (1), the control ration supplemented with ammonium chloride and ammonium sulphate salt solution (2), control ration following a period with supplementation (3) and control ration supplemented with increasing amounts of barley from 4 to 10 kg/cow per day, expected to produce subclinical rumen acidosis (4). Daily intake of the diets was adjusted to 14 kg DM/cow per day. On day 11, the calcium-regulating mechanisms in cows were challenged until recumbency by a standardized intravenous EDTA infusion and cows were left to recover spontaneously. Anion supplementation and the feeding of highly fermentable carbohydrate lowered urine pH below 7.0 due to subclinical acidosis. During spontaneous recovery from EDTA induced hypocalcaemia, the cows more quickly regained a whole blood free calcium concentration of 1.00 mmol/L if they had most recently been supplemented with either anionic salts or with increasing amounts of barley, as compared to the basic ration. It is concluded that so-called slug-feeding or 'steaming up' with highly fermentable carbohydrates before parturition in milk fever susceptible cows enhanced calcium homeostasis similar to the effect seen in cows on anionic diets. PMID:15663074

A laboratory-calibrated model of coho salmon growth with utility for ecological analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manhard, Christopher V.; Som, Nicholas A.; Perry, Russell W.; Plumb, John M.

2018-01-01

We conducted a meta-analysis of laboratory- and hatchery-based growth data to estimate broadly applicable parameters of mass- and temperature-dependent growth of juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch). Following studies of other salmonid species, we incorporated the Ratkowsky growth model into an allometric model and fit this model to growth observations from eight studies spanning ten different populations. To account for changes in growth patterns with food availability, we reparameterized the Ratkowsky model to scale several of its parameters relative to ration. The resulting model was robust across a wide range of ration allocations and experimental conditions, accounting for 99% of the variation in final body mass. We fit this model to growth data from coho salmon inhabiting tributaries and constructed ponds in the Klamath Basin by estimating habitat-specific indices of food availability. The model produced evidence that constructed ponds provided higher food availability than natural tributaries. Because of their simplicity (only mass and temperature are required as inputs) and robustness, ration-varying Ratkowsky models have utility as an ecological tool for capturing growth in freshwater fish populations.

Mechanisms underlying REBT in mood disordered patients: predicting depression from the hybrid model of learning.

PubMed

Jackson, Chris J; Izadikah, Zahra; Oei, Tian P S

2012-06-01

Jackson's (2005, 2008a) hybrid model of learning identifies a number of learning mechanisms that lead to the emergence and maintenance of the balance between rationality and irrationality. We test a general hypothesis that Jackson's model will predict depressive symptoms, such that poor learning is related to depression. We draw comparisons between Jackson's model and Ellis' (2004) Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy and Theory (REBT) and thereby provide a set of testable learning mechanisms potentially underlying REBT. Results from 80 patients diagnosed with depression completed the learning styles profiler (LSP; Jackson, 2005) and two measures of depression. Results provide support for the proposed model of learning and further evidence that low rationality is a key predictor of depression. We conclude that the hybrid model of learning has the potential to explain some of the learning and cognitive processes related to the development and maintenance of irrational beliefs and depression. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V.

HIA, the next step: Defining models and roles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Putters, Kim

If HIA is to be an effective instrument for optimising health interests in the policy making process it has to recognise the different contests in which policy is made and the relevance of both technical rationality and political rationality. Policy making may adopt a rational perspective in which there is a systematic and orderly progression from problem formulation to solution or a network perspective in which there are multiple interdependencies, extensive negotiation and compromise, and the steps from problem to formulation are not followed sequentially or in any particular order. Policy problems may be simple with clear causal pathways andmore » responsibilities or complex with unclear causal pathways and disputed responsibilities. Network analysis is required to show which stakeholders are involved, their support for health issues and the degree of consensus. From this analysis three models of HIA emerge. The first is the phases model which is fitted to simple problems and a rational perspective of policymaking. This model involves following structured steps. The second model is the rounds (Echternach) model that is fitted to complex problems and a network perspective of policymaking. This model is dynamic and concentrates on network solutions taking these steps in no particular order. The final model is the 'garbage can' model fitted to contexts which combine simple and complex problems. In this model HIA functions as a problem solver and signpost keeping all possible solutions and stakeholders in play and allowing solutions to emerge over time. HIA models should be the beginning rather than the conclusion of discussion the worlds of HIA and policymaking.« less

[Concepts of rational taxonomy].

PubMed

Pavlinov, I Ia

2011-01-01

The problems are discussed related to development of concepts of rational taxonomy and rational classifications (taxonomic systems) in biology. Rational taxonomy is based on the assumption that the key characteristic of rationality is deductive inference of certain partial judgments about reality under study from other judgments taken as more general and a priory true. Respectively, two forms of rationality are discriminated--ontological and epistemological ones. The former implies inference of classifications properties from general (essential) properties of the reality being investigated. The latter implies inference of the partial rules of judgments about classifications from more general (formal) rules. The following principal concepts of ontologically rational biological taxonomy are considered: "crystallographic" approach, inference of the orderliness of organismal diversity from general laws of Nature, inference of the above orderliness from the orderliness of ontogenetic development programs, based on the concept of natural kind and Cassirer's series theory, based on the systemic concept, based on the idea of periodic systems. Various concepts of ontologically rational taxonomy can be generalized by an idea of the causal taxonomy, according to which any biologically sound classification is founded on a contentwise model of biological diversity that includes explicit indication of general causes responsible for that diversity. It is asserted that each category of general causation and respective background model may serve as a basis for a particular ontologically rational taxonomy as a distinctive research program. Concepts of epistemologically rational taxonomy and classifications (taxonomic systems) can be interpreted in terms of application of certain epistemological criteria of substantiation of scientific status of taxonomy in general and of taxonomic systems in particular. These concepts include: consideration of taxonomy consistency from the standpoint of inductive and hypothetico-deductive argumentation schemes and such fundamental criteria of classifications naturalness as their prognostic capabilities; foundation of a theory of "general taxonomy" as a "general logic", including elements of the axiomatic method. The latter concept constitutes a core of the program of general classiology; it is inconsistent due to absence of anything like "general logic". It is asserted that elaboration of a theory of taxonomy as a biological discipline based on the formal principles of epistemological rationality is not feasible. Instead, it is to be elaborated as ontologically rational one based on biologically sound metatheories about biological diversity causes.

The Development and Validation of the Rational and Intuitive Decision Styles Scale.

PubMed

Hamilton, Katherine; Shih, Shin-I; Mohammed, Susan

2016-01-01

Decision styles reflect the typical manner by which individuals make decisions. The purpose of this research was to develop and validate a decision style scale that addresses conceptual and psychometric problems with current measures. The resulting 10-item scale captures a broad range of the rational and intuitive styles construct domain. Results from 5 independent samples provide initial support for the dimensionality and reliability of the new scale, as demonstrated by a clear factor structure and high internal consistency. In addition, our results show evidence of convergent and discriminant validity through expected patterns of correlations across decision-making individual differences and the International Personality Item Pool (IPIP) Big Five traits. Research domains that would benefit from incorporating the concept of decision styles are discussed.

Initial cash/asset ratio and asset prices: an experimental study.

PubMed

Caginalp, G; Porter, D; Smith, V

1998-01-20

A series of experiments, in which nine participants trade an asset over 15 periods, test the hypothesis that an initial imbalance of asset/cash will influence the trading price over an extended time. Participants know at the outset that the asset or "stock" pays a single dividend with fixed expectation value at the end of the 15th period. In experiments with a greater total value of cash at the start, the mean prices during the trading periods are higher, compared with those with greater amount of asset, with a high degree of statistical significance. The difference is most significant at the outset and gradually tapers near the end of the experiment. The results are very surprising from a rational expectations and classical game theory perspective, because the possession of a large amount of cash does not lead to a simple motivation for a trader to bid excessively on a financial instrument. The gradual erosion of the difference toward the end of trading, however, suggests that fundamental value is approached belatedly, offering some consolation to the rational expectations theory. It also suggests that there is a time scale on which an evolution toward fundamental value occurs. The experimental results are qualitatively compatible with the price dynamics predicted by a system of differential equations based on asset flow. The results have broad implications for the marketing of securities, particularly initial and secondary public offerings, government bonds, etc., where excess supply has been conjectured to suppress prices.

Initial cash/asset ratio and asset prices: An experimental study

PubMed Central

Caginalp, Gunduz; Porter, David; Smith, Vernon

1998-01-01

A series of experiments, in which nine participants trade an asset over 15 periods, test the hypothesis that an initial imbalance of asset/cash will influence the trading price over an extended time. Participants know at the outset that the asset or “stock” pays a single dividend with fixed expectation value at the end of the 15th period. In experiments with a greater total value of cash at the start, the mean prices during the trading periods are higher, compared with those with greater amount of asset, with a high degree of statistical significance. The difference is most significant at the outset and gradually tapers near the end of the experiment. The results are very surprising from a rational expectations and classical game theory perspective, because the possession of a large amount of cash does not lead to a simple motivation for a trader to bid excessively on a financial instrument. The gradual erosion of the difference toward the end of trading, however, suggests that fundamental value is approached belatedly, offering some consolation to the rational expectations theory. It also suggests that there is a time scale on which an evolution toward fundamental value occurs. The experimental results are qualitatively compatible with the price dynamics predicted by a system of differential equations based on asset flow. The results have broad implications for the marketing of securities, particularly initial and secondary public offerings, government bonds, etc., where excess supply has been conjectured to suppress prices. PMID:11038619

Depressive symptoms and occupational stress among Chinese female nurses: the mediating effects of social support and rational coping.

PubMed

Wu, Hui; Ge, Cui Xia; Sun, Wei; Wang, Jia Na; Wang, Lie

2011-10-01

The study reported here was designed to investigate the relationship between depressive symptoms and occupational stress in female nurses in China during the period June-July 2008. The hypothesis tested was that social support and rational coping would mediate the effects of occupational stress on depressive symptoms. Our structural equation modeling revealed that social support and rational coping were negatively correlated with depressive symptoms. Social support and rational coping mediated the effects of occupational stress on depressive symptoms. Role overload, role insufficiency, and role boundary were predictive of depressive symptoms. These results indicated that lessening occupational stress and strengthening social support and rational coping could decrease depressive symptoms among Chinese female nurses. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Finding Bounded Rational Equilibria. Part 1; Iterative Focusing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolpert, David H.

2004-01-01

A long-running difficulty with conventional game theory has been how to modify it to accommodate the bounded rationality characterizing all real-world players. A recurring issue in statistical physics is how best to approximate joint probability distributions with decoupled (and therefore far more tractable) distributions. It has recently been shown that the same information theoretic mathematical structure, known as Probability Collectives (PC) underlies both issues. This relationship between statistical physics and game theory allows techniques and insights from the one field to be applied to the other. In particular, PC provides a formal model-independent definition of the degree of rationality of a player and of bounded rationality equilibria. This pair of papers extends previous work on PC by introducing new computational approaches to effectively find bounded rationality equilibria of common-interest (team) games.

Analysis of the Relation between Academic Procrastination, Academic Rational/Irrational Beliefs, Time Preferences to Study for Exams, and Academic Achievement: A Structural Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Balkis, Murat; Duru, Erdinc; Bulus, Mustafa

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relations between academic rational/irrational beliefs, academic procrastination, and time preferences to study for exams and academic achievement by using the structural equation model. The sample consisted of 281 undergraduate students who filled in questionnaires at the 7-week-long summer course.…

Bayesian assessment of the expected data impact on prediction confidence in optimal sampling design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leube, P. C.; Geiges, A.; Nowak, W.

2012-02-01

Incorporating hydro(geo)logical data, such as head and tracer data, into stochastic models of (subsurface) flow and transport helps to reduce prediction uncertainty. Because of financial limitations for investigation campaigns, information needs toward modeling or prediction goals should be satisfied efficiently and rationally. Optimal design techniques find the best one among a set of investigation strategies. They optimize the expected impact of data on prediction confidence or related objectives prior to data collection. We introduce a new optimal design method, called PreDIA(gnosis) (Preposterior Data Impact Assessor). PreDIA derives the relevant probability distributions and measures of data utility within a fully Bayesian, generalized, flexible, and accurate framework. It extends the bootstrap filter (BF) and related frameworks to optimal design by marginalizing utility measures over the yet unknown data values. PreDIA is a strictly formal information-processing scheme free of linearizations. It works with arbitrary simulation tools, provides full flexibility concerning measurement types (linear, nonlinear, direct, indirect), allows for any desired task-driven formulations, and can account for various sources of uncertainty (e.g., heterogeneity, geostatistical assumptions, boundary conditions, measurement values, model structure uncertainty, a large class of model errors) via Bayesian geostatistics and model averaging. Existing methods fail to simultaneously provide these crucial advantages, which our method buys at relatively higher-computational costs. We demonstrate the applicability and advantages of PreDIA over conventional linearized methods in a synthetic example of subsurface transport. In the example, we show that informative data is often invisible for linearized methods that confuse zero correlation with statistical independence. Hence, PreDIA will often lead to substantially better sampling designs. Finally, we extend our example to specifically highlight the consideration of conceptual model uncertainty.

Retirement and Death in Office of U.S. Supreme Court Justices

PubMed Central

STOLZENBERG, ROSS M.; LINDGREN, JAMES

2010-01-01

We construct demographic models of retirement and death in office of U.S. Supreme Court justices, a group that has gained demographic notice, evaded demographic analysis, and is said to diverge from expected retirement patterns. Models build on prior multistate labor force status studies, and data permit an unusually clear distinction between voluntary and “induced” retirement. Using data on every justice from 1789 through 2006, with robust, cluster-corrected, discrete-time, censored, event-history methods, we (1) estimate retirement effects of pension eligibility, age, health, and tenure on the timing of justices’ retirements and deaths in office, (2) resolve decades of debate over the politicized departure hypothesis that justices tend to alter the timing of their retirements for the political benefit or detriment of the incumbent president, (3) reconsider the nature of rationality in retirement decisions, and (4) consider the relevance of organizational conditions as well as personal circumstances to retirement decisions. Methodological issues are addressed. PMID:20608097

Theory and Simulations of Incomplete Reconnection During Sawteeth Due to Diamagnetic Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beidler, Matthew Thomas

Tokamaks use magnetic fields to confine plasmas to achieve fusion; they are the leading approach proposed for the widespread production of fusion energy. The sawtooth crash in tokamaks limits the core temperature, adversely impacts confinement, and seeds disruptions. Adequate knowledge of the physics governing the sawtooth crash and a predictive capability of its ramifications has been elusive, including an understanding of incomplete reconnection, i.e., why sawteeth often cease prematurely before processing all available magnetic flux. In this dissertation, we introduce a model for incomplete reconnection in sawtooth crashes resulting from increasing diamagnetic effects in the nonlinear phase of magnetic reconnection. Physically, the reconnection inflow self-consistently convects the high pressure core of a tokamak toward the q=1 rational surface, thereby increasing the pressure gradient at the reconnection site. If the pressure gradient at the rational surface becomes large enough due to the self-consistent evolution, incomplete reconnection will occur due to diamagnetic effects becoming large enough to suppress reconnection. Predictions of this model are borne out in large-scale proof-of-principle two-fluid simulations of reconnection in a 2D slab geometry and are also consistent with data from the Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak (MAST). Additionally, we present simulations from the 3D extended-MHD code M3D-C1 used to study the sawtooth crash in a 3D toroidal geometry for resistive-MHD and two-fluid models. This is the first study in a 3D tokamak geometry to show that the inclusion of two-fluid physics in the model equations is essential for recovering timescales more closely in line with experimental results compared to resistive-MHD and contrast the dynamics in the two models. We use a novel approach to sample the data in the plane of reconnection perpendicular to the (m,n)=(1,1) mode to carefully assess the reconnection physics. Using local measures of reconnection, we find that it is much faster in the two-fluid simulations, consistent with expectations based on global measures. By sampling data in the reconnection plane, we present the first observation of the quadrupole out-of-plane magnetic field appearing during sawtooth reconnection with the Hall term. We also explore how reconnection as viewed in the reconnection plane varies toroidally, which affects the symmetry of the reconnection geometry and the local diamagnetic effects. We expect our results to be useful for transport modeling in tokamaks, predicting energetic alpha-particle confinement, and assessing how sawteeth trigger disruptions. Since the model only depends on local diamagnetic and reconnection physics, it is machine independent, and should apply both to existing tokamaks and future ones such as ITER.

Collective rationality: the integrative model explains it (as) well.

PubMed

Van Lange, Paul A M

2008-06-01

In this commentary, I argue that there is indeed considerable evidence in support of the notion that people tend to reason from a collective (or team) perspective by asking themselves questions such as "What do we want, and what should I do help achieve it?" [Colman, A. M., Pulford, B. D., & Rose, J. (2008). Collective rationality in interactive decisions: Evidence for team reasoning. Acta Psychologica]. As such, in my view, team reasoning -- and thinking, feeling, and acting in terms of collective rationality -- is consistent with a social utility model (or transformational model) which considers the weights that people attach not only to outcomes for self, but also to outcomes for other, and to equality in outcomes [Van Lange, P. A. M. (1999). The pursuit of joint outcomes and equality in outcomes: An integrative model of social value orientation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,77, 337-349]. This commentary provides an illustration demonstrating that the integrative model is well-suited to account for the findings observed by Colman et al. (2008).

Comparisons between consumption estimates from bioenergetics simulations and field measurements for walleyes from Oneida Lake, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lantry, B.F.; Rudstam, L. G.; Forney, J.L.; VanDeValk, A.J.; Mills, E.L.; Stewart, D.J.; Adams, J.V.

2008-01-01

Daily consumption was estimated from the stomach contents of walleyes Sander vitreus collected weekly from Oneida Lake, New York, during June-October 1975, 1992, 1993, and 1994 for one to four age-groups per year. Field rations were highly variable between weeks, and trends in ration size varied both seasonally and annually. The coefficient of variation for weekly field rations within years and ages ranged from 45% to 97%. Field estimates were compared with simulated consumption from a bioenergetics model. The simulation averages of daily ration deviated from those of the field estimates by -20.1% to +70.3%, with a mean across all simulations of +14.3%. The deviations for each time step were much greater than those for the simulation averages, ranging from -92.8% to +363.6%. A systematic trend in the deviations was observed, the model producing overpredictions at rations less than 3.7% of body weight. Analysis of variance indicated that the deviations were affected by sample year and week but not age. Multiple linear regression using backwards selection procedures and Akaike's information criterion indicated that walleye weight, walleye growth, lake temperature, prey energy density, and the proportion of gizzard shad Dorosoma cepedianum in the diet significantly affected the deviations between simulated and field rations and explained 32% of the variance. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

[Rational bases for cooperation between epidemiologists and mathematicians].

PubMed

Favorova, L A; Shatrov, I I

1977-10-01

The authors consider rational foundations underlying creatin of realistic models. The principal condition for the successful mathematical modelling is obtaining of the most full value primary materials on the course of the epidemic process. For this purpose the authors suggest definite principles of the methodical approach to the mathematical modelling. Possibilities of the use of mathematical methods for various groups of infections are consideder. Particular attention is paid to the works on the study of the infection risk in "small" collective bodies.

A rational inference approach to group and individual-level sentence comprehension performance in aphasia.

PubMed

Warren, Tessa; Dickey, Michael Walsh; Liburd, Teljer L

2017-07-01

The rational inference, or noisy channel, account of language comprehension predicts that comprehenders are sensitive to the probabilities of different interpretations for a given sentence and adapt as these probabilities change (Gibson, Bergen & Piantadosi, 2013). This account provides an important new perspective on aphasic sentence comprehension: aphasia may increase the likelihood of sentence distortion, leading people with aphasia (PWA) to rely more on the prior probability of an interpretation and less on the form or structure of the sentence (Gibson, Sandberg, Fedorenko, Bergen & Kiran, 2015). We report the results of a sentence-picture matching experiment that tested the predictions of the rational inference account and other current models of aphasic sentence comprehension across a variety of sentence structures. Consistent with the rational inference account, PWA showed similar sensitivity to the probability of particular kinds of form distortions as age-matched controls, yet overall their interpretations relied more on prior probability and less on sentence form. As predicted by rational inference, but not by other models of sentence comprehension in aphasia, PWA's interpretations were more faithful to the form for active and passive sentences than for direct object and prepositional object sentences. However contra rational inference, there was no evidence that individual PWA's severity of syntactic or semantic impairment predicted their sensitivity to form versus the prior probability of a sentence, as cued by semantics. These findings confirm and extend previous findings that suggest the rational inference account holds promise for explaining aphasic and neurotypical comprehension, but they also raise new challenges for the account. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A novel pneumatic micropipette aspiration method using a balance pressure model.

PubMed

Zhao, Qili; Wu, Ming; Cui, Maosheng; Qin, Yanding; Yu, Jin; Sun, Mingzhu; Zhao, Xin; Feng, Xizeng

2013-12-01

This paper presents a novel micropipette aspiration (MA) method based on a common pneumatic micro-injection system. This method is the first to quantify the influence of capillary effect on aspiration pressure using a balance pressure model, and in return, uses the capillary effect to quantify the aspiration pressure. Subsequently, the seal between the cell and the micropipette is detected to judge and exclude the ineffective MA attempts. The rationality of the balance pressure model is validated by the designed micropipette-filling experiments. Through applied to elasticity-determination of the cells with different sizes, the feasibility and versatility of this MA method are proved. With abilities to quantify aspiration pressures and detect the seam between the cell and the micropipette, our method is expected to advance the application of the commercial pneumatic injector in the MA of cells. Moreover, with the quantified volume of the liquid entering into the micropipette during MA process, our method also has a potential applicability to the study of the permeability of the cell membrane in the future.

Peak capacity analysis of coal power in China based on full-life cycle cost model optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Xiaoqing; Zhang, Jinfang; Huang, Xinting

2018-02-01

13th five-year and the next period are critical for the energy and power reform of China. In order to ease the excessive power supply, policies have been introduced by National Energy Board especially toward coal power capacity control. Therefore the rational construction scale and scientific development timing for coal power are of great importance and paid more and more attentions. In this study, the comprehensive influence of coal power reduction policies is analyzed from diverse point of views. Full-life cycle cost model of coal power is established to fully reflect the external and internal cost. Then this model is introduced in an improved power planning optimization theory. The power planning and diverse scenarios production simulation shows that, in order to meet the power, electricity and peak balance of power system, China’s coal power peak capacity is within 1.15 ∼ 1.2 billion kilowatts before or after 2025. The research result is expected to be helpful to the power industry in 14th and 15th five-year periods, promoting the efficiency and safety of power system.

Wilson loops and chiral correlators on squashed spheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fucito, F.; Morales, J. F.; Poghossian, R.

2015-11-01

We study chiral deformations of N=2 and N=4 supersymmetric gauge theories obtained by turning on τ J tr Φ J interactions with Φ the N=2 superfield. Using localization, we compute the deformed gauge theory partition function Z(overrightarrow{τ}|q) and the expectation value of circular Wilson loops W on a squashed four-sphere. In the case of the deformed {N}=4 theory, exact formulas for Z and W are derived in terms of an underlying U( N) interacting matrix model replacing the free Gaussian model describing the {N}=4 theory. Using the AGT correspondence, the τ J -deformations are related to the insertions of commuting integrals of motion in the four-point CFT correlator and chiral correlators are expressed as τ-derivatives of the gauge theory partition function on a finite Ω-background. In the so called Nekrasov-Shatashvili limit, the entire ring of chiral relations is extracted from the ɛ-deformed Seiberg-Witten curve. As a byproduct of our analysis we show that SU(2) gauge theories on rational Ω-backgrounds are dual to CFT minimal models.

Fearless versus fearful speculative financial bubbles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, J. V.; Sornette, D.

2004-06-01

Using a recently introduced rational expectation model of bubbles, based on the interplay between stochasticity and positive feedbacks of prices on returns and volatility, we develop a new methodology to test how this model classifies nine time series that have been previously considered as bubbles ending in crashes. The model predicts the existence of two anomalous behaviors occurring simultaneously: (i) super-exponential price growth and (ii) volatility growth, that we refer to as the “fearful singular bubble” regime. Out of the nine time series, we find that five pass our tests and can be characterized as “fearful singular bubbles”. The four other cases are the information technology Nasdaq bubble and three bubbles of the Hang Seng index ending in crashes in 1987, 1994 and 1997. According to our analysis, these four bubbles have developed with essentially no significant increase of their volatility. This paper thus proposes that speculative bubbles ending in crashes form two groups hitherto unrecognized, namely those accompanied by increasing volatility (reflecting increasing risk perception) and those without change of volatility (reflecting an absence of risk perception).

Modelling and prediction for chaotic fir laser attractor using rational function neural network.

PubMed

Cho, S

2001-02-01

Many real-world systems such as irregular ECG signal, volatility of currency exchange rate and heated fluid reaction exhibit highly complex nonlinear characteristic known as chaos. These chaotic systems cannot be retreated satisfactorily using linear system theory due to its high dimensionality and irregularity. This research focuses on prediction and modelling of chaotic FIR (Far InfraRed) laser system for which the underlying equations are not given. This paper proposed a method for prediction and modelling a chaotic FIR laser time series using rational function neural network. Three network architectures, TDNN (Time Delayed Neural Network), RBF (radial basis function) network and the RF (rational function) network, are also presented. Comparisons between these networks performance show the improvements introduced by the RF network in terms of a decrement in network complexity and better ability of predictability.

Price responsiveness of demand for cigarettes: does rationality matter?

PubMed

Laporte, Audrey

2006-01-01

Meta-analysis is applied to aggregate-level studies that model the demand for cigarettes using static, myopic, or rational addiction frameworks in an attempt to synthesize key findings in the literature and to identify determinants of the variation in reported price elasticity estimates across studies. The results suggest that the rational addiction framework produces statistically similar estimates to the static framework but that studies that use the myopic framework tend to report more elastic price effects. Studies that applied panel data techniques or controlled for cross-border smuggling reported more elastic price elasticity estimates, whereas the use of instrumental variable techniques and time trends or time dummy variables produced less elastic estimates. The finding that myopic models produce different estimates than either of the other two model frameworks underscores that careful attention must be given to time series properties of the data.

Rational learning and information sampling: on the "naivety" assumption in sampling explanations of judgment biases.

PubMed

Le Mens, Gaël; Denrell, Jerker

2011-04-01

Recent research has argued that several well-known judgment biases may be due to biases in the available information sample rather than to biased information processing. Most of these sample-based explanations assume that decision makers are "naive": They are not aware of the biases in the available information sample and do not correct for them. Here, we show that this "naivety" assumption is not necessary. Systematically biased judgments can emerge even when decision makers process available information perfectly and are also aware of how the information sample has been generated. Specifically, we develop a rational analysis of Denrell's (2005) experience sampling model, and we prove that when information search is interested rather than disinterested, even rational information sampling and processing can give rise to systematic patterns of errors in judgments. Our results illustrate that a tendency to favor alternatives for which outcome information is more accessible can be consistent with rational behavior. The model offers a rational explanation for behaviors that had previously been attributed to cognitive and motivational biases, such as the in-group bias or the tendency to prefer popular alternatives. 2011 APA, all rights reserved

The effects of rational and irrational self-verbalizations on performance efficiency and levels of anxiety.

PubMed

Rosin, L; Nelson, W M

1983-03-01

Investigated the effects of rational vs. irrational belief systems (as measured by the Ellis Irrational Values Scale) and rational vs. irrational self-verbalizations on levels of anxiety and persistence on a performance task. Ss (N = 40) were instructed to assemble a virtually insolvable task call Soma. The variables of interest were how long each S would persist on this task and how much anxiety (as measured by the A-State portion of the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory) was aroused in working on this task. Following a baseline trial trying to solve Soma, Ss were assigned to either a rational or irrational self-talk condition and were led to believe that such self-talk would help in a second attempt to solve Soma. In line with cognitive models of psychology, it was found that rational self-talk Ss showed a significant decrease in levels of state anxiety compared to irrational self-talk Ss in attempting to solve Soma in the second trial. Contrary to cognitive models of psychology, scores obtained from the EIVS and the A-Trait portion of the STAI were not found to be related to persistence.

Reflections of the social environment in chimpanzee memory: applying rational analysis beyond humans.

PubMed

Stevens, Jeffrey R; Marewski, Julian N; Schooler, Lael J; Gilby, Ian C

2016-08-01

In cognitive science, the rational analysis framework allows modelling of how physical and social environments impose information-processing demands onto cognitive systems. In humans, for example, past social contact among individuals predicts their future contact with linear and power functions. These features of the human environment constrain the optimal way to remember information and probably shape how memory records are retained and retrieved. We offer a primer on how biologists can apply rational analysis to study animal behaviour. Using chimpanzees ( Pan troglodytes ) as a case study, we modelled 19 years of observational data on their social contact patterns. Much like humans, the frequency of past encounters in chimpanzees linearly predicted future encounters, and the recency of past encounters predicted future encounters with a power function. Consistent with the rational analyses carried out for human memory, these findings suggest that chimpanzee memory performance should reflect those environmental regularities. In re-analysing existing chimpanzee memory data, we found that chimpanzee memory patterns mirrored their social contact patterns. Our findings hint that human and chimpanzee memory systems may have evolved to solve similar information-processing problems. Overall, rational analysis offers novel theoretical and methodological avenues for the comparative study of cognition.

Reflections of the social environment in chimpanzee memory: applying rational analysis beyond humans

PubMed Central

Marewski, Julian N.; Schooler, Lael J.; Gilby, Ian C.

2016-01-01

In cognitive science, the rational analysis framework allows modelling of how physical and social environments impose information-processing demands onto cognitive systems. In humans, for example, past social contact among individuals predicts their future contact with linear and power functions. These features of the human environment constrain the optimal way to remember information and probably shape how memory records are retained and retrieved. We offer a primer on how biologists can apply rational analysis to study animal behaviour. Using chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) as a case study, we modelled 19 years of observational data on their social contact patterns. Much like humans, the frequency of past encounters in chimpanzees linearly predicted future encounters, and the recency of past encounters predicted future encounters with a power function. Consistent with the rational analyses carried out for human memory, these findings suggest that chimpanzee memory performance should reflect those environmental regularities. In re-analysing existing chimpanzee memory data, we found that chimpanzee memory patterns mirrored their social contact patterns. Our findings hint that human and chimpanzee memory systems may have evolved to solve similar information-processing problems. Overall, rational analysis offers novel theoretical and methodological avenues for the comparative study of cognition. PMID:27853606

State-Dependent Risk Preferences in Evolutionary Games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roos, Patrick; Nau, Dana

There is much empirical evidence that human decision-making under risk does not correspond the decision-theoretic notion of "rational" decision making, namely to make choices that maximize the expected value. An open question is how such behavior could have arisen evolutionarily. We believe that the answer to this question lies, at least in part, in the interplay between risk-taking and sequentiality of choice in evolutionary environments.

Health-care reform's great expectations and physician reality.

PubMed

Van Mol, Andre

2010-09-01

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act will not prove to be the reform for which physicians were long hoping. Private insurance rates will climb sharply, forcing people onto government programs; physician reimbursement will plummet; the physician shortage will worsen; rationing in the form of waiting lists is certain; health care as a whole will worsen; and once fully engaged, nationalization of health care will be irreversible.

Improving communication skill training in patient centered medical practice for enhancing rational use of laboratory tests: The core of bioinformation for leveraging stakeholder engagement in regulatory science.

PubMed

Moura, Josemar de Almeida; Costa, Bruna Carvalho; de Faria, Rosa Malena Delbone; Soares, Taciana Figueiredo; Moura, Eliane Perlatto; Chiappelli, Francesco

2013-01-01

Requests for laboratory tests are among the most relevant additional tools used by physicians as part of patient's health problemsolving. However, the overestimation of complementary investigation may be linked to less reflective medical practice as a consequence of a poor physician-patient communication, and may impair patient-centered care. This scenario is likely to result from reduced consultation time, and a clinical model focused on the disease. We propose a new medical intervention program that specifically targets improving the patient-centered communication of laboratory tests results, the core of bioinformation in health care. Expectations are that medical students training in communication skills significantly improve physicians-patient relationship, reduce inappropriate use of laboratorial tests, and raise stakeholder engagement.

Interior and its implications for the atmosphere. [effects of Titan interior structure on its atmospheric composition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewis, J. S.

1974-01-01

The bulk composition and interior structure of Titan required to explain the presence of a substantial methane atmosphere are shown to imply the presence of solid CH4 - 7H2O in Titan's primitive material. Consideration of the possible composition and structure of the present atmosphere shows plausible grounds for considering models with total atmospheric pressures ranging from approximately 20 mb up to approximately 1 kb. Expectations regarding the physical state of the surface and its chemical composition are strongly conditioned by the mass of atmosphere believed to be present. A surface of solid CH4, liquid CH4 solid, CH4 hydrate, H2O ice, aqueous NH3 solution, or even a non-surface of supercritical H2O-NH3-CH4 fluid could be rationalized.

The many faces of competency.

PubMed

Drane, J F

1985-04-01

A sliding-scale model for assessing patient competency to consent to medical treatments is proposed. The least stringent standard, to be applied in the case of safe and effective treatments, assumes a valid consent if the patient is aware of what is happening and assents to the rational expectations of the physician. The second standard, applicable in the case of less certain treatments, requires that the patient understand the treatment options and have the capacity to choose or reject a treatment based on a weighing of risks and benefits. The third and most stringent standard, reserved for very dangerous treatments, bases competence to consent on an appreciation of the implications of the medical information for the patient's life and on an ability to state the reasons for the decision in terms of the medical issues and the patient's personal values.

Physician Agency and Patient Survival*

PubMed Central

Jacobson, Mireille G.; Chang, Tom Y.; Earle, Craig C.; Newhouse, Joseph P.

2017-01-01

We investigate the role of physician agency in determining health care supply and patient outcomes. We show that an increase in health care supply due to a change in private physician incentives has a theoretically ambiguous impact on patient welfare. The increase can reflect either induced demand for ineffective care or a reduction in prior rationing of effective care. Furthermore, physician market structure matters in determining the welfare effects of changes in private physician incentives. We then analyze a change to Medicare fees that caused physicians to increase their provision of chemotherapy. We find that this increase in treatment improved patient survival, extending median life expectancy for lung cancer patients by about 18%. Consistent with the model, we find that while the treatment response was larger in less concentrated markets, survival improvements were larger in more concentrated markets. PMID:28133401

Defender-Attacker Decision Tree Analysis to Combat Terrorism.

PubMed

Garcia, Ryan J B; von Winterfeldt, Detlof

2016-12-01

We propose a methodology, called defender-attacker decision tree analysis, to evaluate defensive actions against terrorist attacks in a dynamic and hostile environment. Like most game-theoretic formulations of this problem, we assume that the defenders act rationally by maximizing their expected utility or minimizing their expected costs. However, we do not assume that attackers maximize their expected utilities. Instead, we encode the defender's limited knowledge about the attacker's motivations and capabilities as a conditional probability distribution over the attacker's decisions. We apply this methodology to the problem of defending against possible terrorist attacks on commercial airplanes, using one of three weapons: infrared-guided MANPADS (man-portable air defense systems), laser-guided MANPADS, or visually targeted RPGs (rocket propelled grenades). We also evaluate three countermeasures against these weapons: DIRCMs (directional infrared countermeasures), perimeter control around the airport, and hardening airplanes. The model includes deterrence effects, the effectiveness of the countermeasures, and the substitution of weapons and targets once a specific countermeasure is selected. It also includes a second stage of defensive decisions after an attack occurs. Key findings are: (1) due to the high cost of the countermeasures, not implementing countermeasures is the preferred defensive alternative for a large range of parameters; (2) if the probability of an attack and the associated consequences are large, a combination of DIRCMs and ground perimeter control are preferred over any single countermeasure. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Application of decision-making theory to the regulation of muscular work rate during self-paced competitive endurance activity.

PubMed

Renfree, Andrew; Martin, Louise; Micklewright, Dominic; St Clair Gibson, Alan

2014-02-01

Successful participation in competitive endurance activities requires continual regulation of muscular work rate in order to maximise physiological performance capacities, meaning that individuals must make numerous decisions with regards to the muscular work rate selected at any point in time. Decisions relating to the setting of appropriate goals and the overall strategic approach to be utilised are made prior to the commencement of an event, whereas tactical decisions are made during the event itself. This review examines current theories of decision-making in an attempt to explain the manner in which regulation of muscular work is achieved during athletic activity. We describe rational and heuristic theories, and relate these to current models of regulatory processes during self-paced exercise in an attempt to explain observations made in both laboratory and competitive environments. Additionally, we use rational and heuristic theories in an attempt to explain the influence of the presence of direct competitors on the quality of the decisions made during these activities. We hypothesise that although both rational and heuristic models can plausibly explain many observed behaviours in competitive endurance activities, the complexity of the environment in which such activities occur would imply that effective rational decision-making is unlikely. However, at present, many proposed models of the regulatory process share similarities with rational models. We suggest enhanced understanding of the decision-making process during self-paced activities is crucial in order to improve the ability to understand regulation of performance and performance outcomes during athletic activity.

Enhancing the role of veterinary vaccines reducing zoonotic diseases of humans: Linking systems biology with vaccine development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adams, Leslie G.; Khare, Sangeeta; Lawhon, Sara D.

The aim of research on infectious diseases is their prevention, and brucellosis and salmonellosis as such are classic examples of worldwide zoonoses for application of a systems biology approach for enhanced rational vaccine development. When used optimally, vaccines prevent disease manifestations, reduce transmission of disease, decrease the need for pharmaceutical intervention, and improve the health and welfare of animals, as well as indirectly protecting against zoonotic diseases of people. Advances in the last decade or so using comprehensive systems biology approaches linking genomics, proteomics, bioinformatics, and biotechnology with immunology, pathogenesis and vaccine formulation and delivery are expected to enable enhancedmore » approaches to vaccine development. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the role of computational systems biology analysis of host:pathogen interactions (the interactome) as a tool for enhanced rational design of vaccines. Systems biology is bringing a new, more robust approach to veterinary vaccine design based upon a deeper understanding of the host pathogen interactions and its impact on the host's molecular network of the immune system. A computational systems biology method was utilized to create interactome models of the host responses to Brucella melitensis (BMEL), Mycobacterium avium paratuberculosis (MAP), Salmonella enterica Typhimurium (STM), and a Salmonella mutant (isogenic *sipA, sopABDE2) and linked to the basis for rational development of vaccines for brucellosis and salmonellosis as reviewed by Adams et al. and Ficht et al. [1,2]. A bovine ligated ileal loop biological model was established to capture the host gene expression response at multiple time points post infection. New methods based on Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) machine learning were employed to conduct a comparative pathogenicity analysis of 219 signaling and metabolic pathways and 1620 gene ontology (GO) categories that defined the host's biosignatures to each infectious condition. Through this DBN computational approach, the method identified significantly perturbed pathways and GO category groups of genes that define the pathogenicity signatures of the infectious agent. Our preliminary results provide deeper understanding of the overall complexity of host innate immune response as well as the identification of host gene perturbations that defines a unique host temporal biosignature response to each pathogen. The application of advanced computational methods for developing interactome models based on DBNs has proven to be instrumental in elucidating novel host responses and improved functional biological insight into the host defensive mechanisms. Evaluating the unique differences in pathway and GO perturbations across pathogen conditions allowed the identification of plausible host pathogen interaction mechanisms. Accordingly, a systems biology approach to study molecular pathway gene expression profiles of host cellular responses to microbial pathogens holds great promise as a methodology to identify, model and predict the overall dynamics of the host pathogen interactome. Thus, we propose that such an approach has immediate application to the rational design of brucellosis and salmonellosis vaccines.« less

Enhancing the role of veterinary vaccines reducing zoonotic diseases of humans: linking systems biology with vaccine development.

PubMed

Adams, L Garry; Khare, Sangeeta; Lawhon, Sara D; Rossetti, Carlos A; Lewin, Harris A; Lipton, Mary S; Turse, Joshua E; Wylie, Dennis C; Bai, Yu; Drake, Kenneth L

2011-09-22

The aim of research on infectious diseases is their prevention, and brucellosis and salmonellosis as such are classic examples of worldwide zoonoses for application of a systems biology approach for enhanced rational vaccine development. When used optimally, vaccines prevent disease manifestations, reduce transmission of disease, decrease the need for pharmaceutical intervention, and improve the health and welfare of animals, as well as indirectly protecting against zoonotic diseases of people. Advances in the last decade or so using comprehensive systems biology approaches linking genomics, proteomics, bioinformatics, and biotechnology with immunology, pathogenesis and vaccine formulation and delivery are expected to enable enhanced approaches to vaccine development. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the role of computational systems biology analysis of host:pathogen interactions (the interactome) as a tool for enhanced rational design of vaccines. Systems biology is bringing a new, more robust approach to veterinary vaccine design based upon a deeper understanding of the host-pathogen interactions and its impact on the host's molecular network of the immune system. A computational systems biology method was utilized to create interactome models of the host responses to Brucella melitensis (BMEL), Mycobacterium avium paratuberculosis (MAP), Salmonella enterica Typhimurium (STM), and a Salmonella mutant (isogenic ΔsipA, sopABDE2) and linked to the basis for rational development of vaccines for brucellosis and salmonellosis as reviewed by Adams et al. and Ficht et al. [1,2]. A bovine ligated ileal loop biological model was established to capture the host gene expression response at multiple time points post infection. New methods based on Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) machine learning were employed to conduct a comparative pathogenicity analysis of 219 signaling and metabolic pathways and 1620 gene ontology (GO) categories that defined the host's biosignatures to each infectious condition. Through this DBN computational approach, the method identified significantly perturbed pathways and GO category groups of genes that define the pathogenicity signatures of the infectious agent. Our preliminary results provide deeper understanding of the overall complexity of host innate immune response as well as the identification of host gene perturbations that defines a unique host temporal biosignature response to each pathogen. The application of advanced computational methods for developing interactome models based on DBNs has proven to be instrumental in elucidating novel host responses and improved functional biological insight into the host defensive mechanisms. Evaluating the unique differences in pathway and GO perturbations across pathogen conditions allowed the identification of plausible host-pathogen interaction mechanisms. Accordingly, a systems biology approach to study molecular pathway gene expression profiles of host cellular responses to microbial pathogens holds great promise as a methodology to identify, model and predict the overall dynamics of the host-pathogen interactome. Thus, we propose that such an approach has immediate application to the rational design of brucellosis and salmonellosis vaccines. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identifying thresholds for relationships between impacts of rationing of nursing care and nurse- and patient-reported outcomes in Swiss hospitals: a correlational study.

PubMed

Schubert, Maria; Clarke, Sean P; Glass, Tracy R; Schaffert-Witvliet, Bianca; De Geest, Sabina

2009-07-01

In the Rationing of Nursing Care in Switzerland Study, implicit rationing of care was the only factor consistently significantly associated with all six studied patient outcomes. These results highlight the importance of rationing as a new system factor regarding patient safety and quality of care. Since at least some rationing of care appears inevitable, it is important to identify the thresholds of its influences in order to minimize its negative effects on patient outcomes. To describe the levels of implicit rationing of nursing care in a sample of Swiss acute care hospitals and to identify clinically meaningful thresholds of rationing. Descriptive cross-sectional multi-center study. Five Swiss-German and three Swiss-French acute care hospitals. 1338 nurses and 779 patients. Implicit rationing of nursing care was measured using the newly developed Basel Extent of Rationing of Nursing Care (BERNCA) instrument. Other variables were measured using survey items from the International Hospital Outcomes Study battery. Data were summarized using appropriate descriptive measures, and logistic regression models were used to define a clinically meaningful rationing threshold level. For the studied patient outcomes, identified rationing threshold levels varied from 0.5 (i.e., between 0 ('never') and 1 ('rarely') to 2 ('sometimes')). Three of the identified patient outcomes (nosocomial infections, pressure ulcers, and patient satisfaction) were particularly sensitive to rationing, showing negative consequences anywhere it was consistently reported (i.e., average BERNCA scores of 0.5 or above). In other cases, increases in negative outcomes were first observed from the level of 1 (average ratings of rarely). Rationing scores generated using the BERNCA instrument provide a clinically meaningful method for tracking the correlates of low resources or difficulties in resource allocation on patient outcomes. Thresholds identified here provide parameters for administrators to respond to whenever rationing reports exceed the determined level of '0.5' or '1'. Since even very low levels of rationing had negative consequences on three of the six studied outcomes, it is advisable to treat consistent evidence of any rationing as a significant threat to patient safety and quality of care.

Consumer Search, Rationing Rules, and the Consequence for Competition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruebeck, Christopher S.

Firms' conjectures about demand are consequential in oligopoly games. Through agent-based modeling of consumers' search for products, we can study the rationing of demand between capacity-constrained firms offering homogeneous products and explore the robustness of analytically solvable models' results. After algorithmically formalizing short-run search behavior rather than assuming a long-run average, this study predicts stronger competition in a two-stage capacity-price game.

Self-deception as pseudo-rational regulation of belief.

PubMed

Michel, Christoph; Newen, Albert

2010-09-01

Self-deception is a special kind of motivational dominance in belief-formation. We develop criteria which set paradigmatic self-deception apart from related phenomena of auto-manipulation such as pretense and motivational bias. In self-deception rational subjects defend or develop beliefs of high subjective importance in response to strong counter-evidence. Self-deceivers make or keep these beliefs tenable by putting prima-facie rational defense-strategies to work against their established standards of rational evaluation. In paradigmatic self-deception, target-beliefs are made tenable via reorganizations of those belief-sets that relate relevant data to target-beliefs. This manipulation of the evidential value of relevant data goes beyond phenomena of motivated perception of data. In self-deception belief-defense is pseudo-rational. Self-deceivers will typically apply a dual standard of evaluation that remains intransparent to the subject. The developed model of self-deception as pseudo-rational belief-defense is empirically anchored. So, we hope to put forward a promising candidate. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Finding Bounded Rational Equilibria. Part 2; Alternative Lagrangians and Uncountable Move Spaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolpert, David H.

2004-01-01

A long-running difficulty with conventional game theory has been how to modify it to accommodate the bounded rationality characterizing all real-world players. A recurring issue in statistical physics is how best to approximate joint probability distributions with decoupled (and therefore far more tractable) distributions. It has recently been shown that the same information theoretic mathematical structure, known as Probability Collectives (PC) underlies both issues. This relationship between statistical physics and game theory allows techniques and insights &om the one field to be applied to the other. In particular, PC provides a formal model-independent definition of the degree of rationality of a player and of bounded rationality equilibria. This pair of papers extends previous work on PC by introducing new computational approaches to effectively find bounded rationality equilibria of common-interest (team) games.

Framing the inborn aging process and longevity science.

PubMed

Farrelly, Colin

2010-06-01

The medical sciences are currently dominated by the "disease-model" approach to health extension, an approach that prioritizes the study of pathological mechanisms with the goal of discovering treatment modalities for specific diseases. This approach has marginalized research on the aging process itself, research that could lead to an intervention that retards aging, thus conferring health dividends that would far exceed what could be expected by eliminating any specific disease of aging. This paper offers a diagnosis of how this sub-optimal approach to health extension arose and some general prescriptions concerning how progress could be made in terms of adopting a more rational approach to health extension. Drawing on empirical findings from psychology and economics, "prospect theory" is applied to the challenges of "framing" the inborn aging process given the cognitive capacities of real (rather than rational) decision-makers under conditions of risk and uncertainty. Prospect theory reveals that preferences are in fact dependent on whether particular outcomes of a choice are regarded as "a loss" or "a gain", relative to a reference point (or "aspiration level for survival"). And this has significant consequences for the way biogerontologists ought to characterise the central aspirations of the field (i.e. to prevent disease versus extend lifespan). Furthermore, it reveals the importance of shifting the existing reference point of the medical sciences to one that is shaped by the findings of evolutionary biology and biodemography.

The impact of loss sensitivity on a mobile phone supply chain system stability based on the chaos theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Junhai; Xie, Lei

2018-02-01

This paper, based on the China's communications and the current situation of the mobile phone industry, focuses on the stability of a supply chain system that consists of one supplier and one bounded rational retailer. We explore the influence of the decision makers' loss sensitivity and decision adjustment speed on the stability of the supply chain. It is found that when the retailer is not sensitive to the loss or adjusts decisions cautiously, the system can be stable. The single-retailer model is extended to a multi-retailer one to study the influence of competition on the system stability. The results show that the market share of each retailer does not affect the system stability when it is fixed. The decision of each retailer does not affect that of any other retailer and the system stability. We present two decision adjustment rules (;bounded rationality expectation (BRE); and "adaptive exponential smoothing (AES)") and compare their performances on the system stability, and find that the AES rule does not affect the system stability, while the BRE rule will make the system stability be sensitive to the retailers' loss sensitivity and the decision adjustment speed. We also reveal the unstable system's negative impact on the retailers' decisions and profits, to emphasize the importance to maintain the system stability.

More Than the Ten Rational Thinking Processes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Torrance, E. Paul

1980-01-01

The 10 rational processes (which include recalling and imagining, classifying and generalizing, comparing and evaluating, analyzing and synthesizing, and deducting and inferring) are examined from a cultural and historical perspective, with particular emphasis on the suprarational aspects of creative thinking. A three stage model for facilitating…

Rational and Mechanistic Perspectives on Reinforcement Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chater, Nick

2009-01-01

This special issue describes important recent developments in applying reinforcement learning models to capture neural and cognitive function. But reinforcement learning, as a theoretical framework, can apply at two very different levels of description: "mechanistic" and "rational." Reinforcement learning is often viewed in mechanistic terms--as…

Local stability condition of the equilibrium of an oligopoly market with bounded rationality adjustment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, Adyda; Saaban, Azizan; Zaibidi, Nerda Zura

2017-11-01

This paper considers an n-firm oligopoly market where each firm produces a single homogenous product under a constant unit cost. Nonlinearity is introduced into the model of this oligopoly market by assuming the market has an isoelastic demand function. Furthermore, instead of the usual assumption of perfectly rational firms, they are assumed to be boundedly rational in adjusting their outputs at each period. The equilibrium of this n discrete dimensional system is obtained and its local stability is calculated.

Questioning the Relevance of Model-Based Probability Statements on Extreme Weather and Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, L. A.

2007-12-01

We question the relevance of climate-model based Bayesian (or other) probability statements for decision support and impact assessment on spatial scales less than continental and temporal averages less than seasonal. Scientific assessment of higher resolution space and time scale information is urgently needed, given the commercial availability of "products" at high spatiotemporal resolution, their provision by nationally funded agencies for use both in industry decision making and governmental policy support, and their presentation to the public as matters of fact. Specifically we seek to establish necessary conditions for probability forecasts (projections conditioned on a model structure and a forcing scenario) to be taken seriously as reflecting the probability of future real-world events. We illustrate how risk management can profitably employ imperfect models of complicated chaotic systems, following NASA's study of near-Earth PHOs (Potentially Hazardous Objects). Our climate models will never be perfect, nevertheless the space and time scales on which they provide decision- support relevant information is expected to improve with the models themselves. Our aim is to establish a set of baselines of internal consistency; these are merely necessary conditions (not sufficient conditions) that physics based state-of-the-art models are expected to pass if their output is to be judged decision support relevant. Probabilistic Similarity is proposed as one goal which can be obtained even when our models are not empirically adequate. In short, probabilistic similarity requires that, given inputs similar to today's empirical observations and observational uncertainties, we expect future models to produce similar forecast distributions. Expert opinion on the space and time scales on which we might reasonably expect probabilistic similarity may prove of much greater utility than expert elicitation of uncertainty in parameter values in a model that is not empirically adequate; this may help to explain the reluctance of experts to provide information on "parameter uncertainty." Probability statements about the real world are always conditioned on some information set; they may well be conditioned on "False" making them of little value to a rational decision maker. In other instances, they may be conditioned on physical assumptions not held by any of the modellers whose model output is being cast as a probability distribution. Our models will improve a great deal in the next decades, and our insight into the likely climate fifty years hence will improve: maintaining the credibility of the science and the coherence of science based decision support, as our models improve, require a clear statement of our current limitations. What evidence do we have that today's state-of-the-art models provide decision-relevant probability forecasts? What space and time scales do we currently have quantitative, decision-relevant information on for 2050? 2080?

Predicting category intuitiveness with the rational model, the simplicity model, and the generalized context model.

PubMed

Pothos, Emmanuel M; Bailey, Todd M

2009-07-01

Naïve observers typically perceive some groupings for a set of stimuli as more intuitive than others. The problem of predicting category intuitiveness has been historically considered the remit of models of unsupervised categorization. In contrast, this article develops a measure of category intuitiveness from one of the most widely supported models of supervised categorization, the generalized context model (GCM). Considering different category assignments for a set of instances, the authors asked how well the GCM can predict the classification of each instance on the basis of all the other instances. The category assignment that results in the smallest prediction error is interpreted as the most intuitive for the GCM-the authors refer to this way of applying the GCM as "unsupervised GCM." The authors systematically compared predictions of category intuitiveness from the unsupervised GCM and two models of unsupervised categorization: the simplicity model and the rational model. The unsupervised GCM compared favorably with the simplicity model and the rational model. This success of the unsupervised GCM illustrates that the distinction between supervised and unsupervised categorization may need to be reconsidered. However, no model emerged as clearly superior, indicating that there is more work to be done in understanding and modeling category intuitiveness.

The anatomy of choice: dopamine and decision-making

PubMed Central

Friston, Karl; Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas; Moutoussis, Michael; Behrens, Timothy; Dolan, Raymond J.

2014-01-01

This paper considers goal-directed decision-making in terms of embodied or active inference. We associate bounded rationality with approximate Bayesian inference that optimizes a free energy bound on model evidence. Several constructs such as expected utility, exploration or novelty bonuses, softmax choice rules and optimism bias emerge as natural consequences of free energy minimization. Previous accounts of active inference have focused on predictive coding. In this paper, we consider variational Bayes as a scheme that the brain might use for approximate Bayesian inference. This scheme provides formal constraints on the computational anatomy of inference and action, which appear to be remarkably consistent with neuroanatomy. Active inference contextualizes optimal decision theory within embodied inference, where goals become prior beliefs. For example, expected utility theory emerges as a special case of free energy minimization, where the sensitivity or inverse temperature (associated with softmax functions and quantal response equilibria) has a unique and Bayes-optimal solution. Crucially, this sensitivity corresponds to the precision of beliefs about behaviour. The changes in precision during variational updates are remarkably reminiscent of empirical dopaminergic responses—and they may provide a new perspective on the role of dopamine in assimilating reward prediction errors to optimize decision-making. PMID:25267823

Overview of TJ-II experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez, J.; Acedo, M.; Alonso, A.; Alonso, J.; Alvarez, P.; de Aragón, F.; Ascasíbar, E.; Baciero, A.; Balbín, R.; Barrera, L.; Blanco, E.; Botija, J.; Brañas, B.; de la Cal, E.; Calderón, E.; Calvo, I.; Cappa, A.; Carmona, J. A.; Carreras, B. A.; Carrasco, R.; Castejón, F.; Catalán, G.; Chmyga, A. A.; Dreval, N. B.; Chamorro, M.; Eguilior, S.; Encabo, J.; Eliseev, L.; Estrada, T.; Fernández, A.; Fernández, R.; Ferreira, J. A.; Fontdecaba, J. M.; Fuentes, C.; de la Gama, J.; García, A.; García, L.; García-Cortés, I.; García-Regaña, J. M.; Gonçalves, B.; Guasp, J.; Herranz, J.; Hidalgo, A.; Hidalgo, C.; Jiménez-Gómez, R.; Jiménez, J. A.; Jiménez, D.; Kirpitchev, I.; Komarov, A. D.; Kozachok, A. S.; Krupnik, L.; Lapayese, F.; Liniers, M.; López-Bruna, D.; López-Fraguas, A.; López-Rázola, J.; López-Sánchez, A.; de la Luna, E.; Marcon, G.; Martín, F.; Martínez-Fresno, L.; McCarthy, K. J.; Medina, F.; Medrano, M.; Melnikov, A. V.; Méndez, P.; Mirones, E.; van Milligen, B.; Nedzelskiy, I. S.; Ochando, M.; Olivares, J.; Orozco, R.; Ortiz, P.; de Pablos, J. L.; Pacios, L.; Pastor, I.; Pedrosa, M. A.; de la Peña, A.; Pereira, A.; Pérez-Risco, D.; Petrov, A.; Petrov, S.; Portas, A.; Rapisarda, D.; Ríos, L.; Rodríguez, C.; Rodríguez-Rodrigo, L.; Rodríguez-Solano, E.; Romero, J.; Ros, A.; Salas, A.; Sánchez, E.; Sánchez, M.; Sánchez-Sarabia, E.; Sarasola, X.; Sarksian, K.; Silva, C.; Schchepetov, S.; Skvortsova, N.; Soleto, A.; Tabarés, F.; Tafalla, D.; Tera, J.; Tolkachev, A.; Tribaldos, V.; Vargas, V. I.; Vega, J.; Velasco, G.; Weber, M.; Wolfers, G.; Zweben, S. J.; Zurro, B.

2007-10-01

This paper presents an overview of experimental results and progress made in investigating the link between magnetic topology, electric fields and transport in the TJ-II stellarator. The smooth change from positive to negative electric field observed in the core region as the density is raised is correlated with global and local transport data. A statistical description of transport is emerging as a new way to describe the coupling between profiles, plasma flows and turbulence. TJ-II experiments show that the location of rational surfaces inside the plasma can, in some circumstances, provide a trigger for the development of core transitions, providing a critical test for the various models that have been proposed to explain the appearance of transport barriers in relation to magnetic topology. In the plasma core, perpendicular rotation is strongly coupled to plasma density, showing a reversal consistent with neoclassical expectations. In contrast, spontaneous sheared flows in the plasma edge appear to be coupled strongly to plasma turbulence, consistent with the expectation for turbulent driven flows. The local injection of hydrocarbons through a mobile limiter and the erosion produced by plasmas with well-known edge parameters opens the possibility of performing carbon transport studies, relevant for understanding co-deposit formation in fusion devices.

The anatomy of choice: dopamine and decision-making.

PubMed

Friston, Karl; Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas; Moutoussis, Michael; Behrens, Timothy; Dolan, Raymond J

2014-11-05

This paper considers goal-directed decision-making in terms of embodied or active inference. We associate bounded rationality with approximate Bayesian inference that optimizes a free energy bound on model evidence. Several constructs such as expected utility, exploration or novelty bonuses, softmax choice rules and optimism bias emerge as natural consequences of free energy minimization. Previous accounts of active inference have focused on predictive coding. In this paper, we consider variational Bayes as a scheme that the brain might use for approximate Bayesian inference. This scheme provides formal constraints on the computational anatomy of inference and action, which appear to be remarkably consistent with neuroanatomy. Active inference contextualizes optimal decision theory within embodied inference, where goals become prior beliefs. For example, expected utility theory emerges as a special case of free energy minimization, where the sensitivity or inverse temperature (associated with softmax functions and quantal response equilibria) has a unique and Bayes-optimal solution. Crucially, this sensitivity corresponds to the precision of beliefs about behaviour. The changes in precision during variational updates are remarkably reminiscent of empirical dopaminergic responses-and they may provide a new perspective on the role of dopamine in assimilating reward prediction errors to optimize decision-making.

Risk Estimation and Sexual Behaviour: A Longitudinal Study of 16- 21-year olds.

PubMed

Breakwell, G M; Breakwell, G M

1996-01-01

The relationships among risk estimation, impulsivity and patterns of sexual risk-taking in 16-21-year-olds are examined. A sample of 236 males and 340 females completed a postal questionnaire on three occasions at annual intervals. They reported their assessment of their own risk of HIV infection, the risk of HIV infection associated with six types of sexual activity, their likelihood of engaging in each of these activities, and whether they had participated in these activities between the first and second data collections. Impulsivity was indexed using a standard test. The data support the conclusion that strong social representations of sexual risks exist which do not markedly change during late adolescence. These risk estimates predict behavioural expectations, primarily for the riskiest behaviours, and for females (actual participation in vaginal sex); but for males, risk estimates fail to predict behaviour. Evidence here for a rational model of individual decision- making in relation to sexual risk- taking is sparse. Impulsivity was not a good predictor of expected or actual patterns of sexual behaviour, though higher impulsivity was associated with having more sexual partners and, in females, with starting to have sex younger.

Monkeys reject unequal pay.

PubMed

Brosnan, Sarah F; De Waal, Frans B M

2003-09-18

During the evolution of cooperation it may have become critical for individuals to compare their own efforts and pay-offs with those of others. Negative reactions may occur when expectations are violated. One theory proposes that aversion to inequity can explain human cooperation within the bounds of the rational choice model, and may in fact be more inclusive than previous explanations. Although there exists substantial cultural variation in its particulars, this 'sense of fairness' is probably a human universal that has been shown to prevail in a wide variety of circumstances. However, we are not the only cooperative animals, hence inequity aversion may not be uniquely human. Many highly cooperative nonhuman species seem guided by a set of expectations about the outcome of cooperation and the division of resources. Here we demonstrate that a nonhuman primate, the brown capuchin monkey (Cebus apella), responds negatively to unequal reward distribution in exchanges with a human experimenter. Monkeys refused to participate if they witnessed a conspecific obtain a more attractive reward for equal effort, an effect amplified if the partner received such a reward without any effort at all. These reactions support an early evolutionary origin of inequity aversion.

Emotion, rationality, and decision-making: how to link affective and social neuroscience with social theory.

PubMed

Verweij, Marco; Senior, Timothy J; Domínguez D, Juan F; Turner, Robert

2015-01-01

In this paper, we argue for a stronger engagement between concepts in affective and social neuroscience on the one hand, and theories from the fields of anthropology, economics, political science, and sociology on the other. Affective and social neuroscience could provide an additional assessment of social theories. We argue that some of the most influential social theories of the last four decades-rational choice theory, behavioral economics, and post-structuralism-contain assumptions that are inconsistent with key findings in affective and social neuroscience. We also show that another approach from the social sciences-plural rationality theory-shows greater compatibility with these findings. We further claim that, in their turn, social theories can strengthen affective and social neuroscience. The former can provide more precise formulations of the social phenomena that neuroscientific models have targeted, can help neuroscientists who build these models become more aware of their social and cultural biases, and can even improve the models themselves. To illustrate, we show how plural rationality theory can be used to further specify and test the somatic marker hypothesis. Thus, we aim to accelerate the much-needed merger of social theories with affective and social neuroscience.

Emotion, rationality, and decision-making: how to link affective and social neuroscience with social theory

PubMed Central

Verweij, Marco; Senior, Timothy J.; Domínguez D., Juan F.; Turner, Robert

2015-01-01

In this paper, we argue for a stronger engagement between concepts in affective and social neuroscience on the one hand, and theories from the fields of anthropology, economics, political science, and sociology on the other. Affective and social neuroscience could provide an additional assessment of social theories. We argue that some of the most influential social theories of the last four decades—rational choice theory, behavioral economics, and post-structuralism—contain assumptions that are inconsistent with key findings in affective and social neuroscience. We also show that another approach from the social sciences—plural rationality theory—shows greater compatibility with these findings. We further claim that, in their turn, social theories can strengthen affective and social neuroscience. The former can provide more precise formulations of the social phenomena that neuroscientific models have targeted, can help neuroscientists who build these models become more aware of their social and cultural biases, and can even improve the models themselves. To illustrate, we show how plural rationality theory can be used to further specify and test the somatic marker hypothesis. Thus, we aim to accelerate the much-needed merger of social theories with affective and social neuroscience. PMID:26441506

The coming fiscal crisis: nephrology in the line of fire.

PubMed

Andersen, Martin J; Friedman, Allon N

2013-07-01

Nephrologists in the United States face a very uncertain economic future. The astronomical federal debt and unfunded liability burden of Medicare combined with the aging population will place unprecedented strain on the health care sector. To address these fundamental problems, it is conceivable that the federal government will ultimately institute rationing and other budget-cutting measures to rein in costs of ESRD care, which is generously funded relative to other chronic illnesses. Therefore, nephrologists should expect implementation of cost-cutting measures, such age-based rationing, mandated delayed dialysis and home therapies, compensated organ donation, and a shift in research priorities from the dialysis to the predialysis patient population. Nephrologists also need to recognize that these changes, which are geared toward the population level, may make it more difficult to advocate effectively for the needs of individual patients.

Menopause: developing a rational treatment plan.

PubMed

Vitiello, Danielle; Naftolin, Frederick; Naftoilin, Frederick; Taylor, Hugh S

2007-12-01

In recent years, growing importance has been afforded to assisting women in coping with the menopausal transition. Menopause is a normal stage of development and a woman's attitude toward this transition embodies biological, psychological and social influences. An enlarging body of conflicting data concerning menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) demands reassessment of established paradigms of disease prevention and menopausal health. Currently, a woman's decision to participate in or abstain from menopausal HT is personal. It involves not only consideration of risk stratification of potential harm and benefit, but also involves her expectations and attitudes toward perceived physical and emotional changes associated with this change. Through the use of extensive patient history, quality-of-life questionnaires and powerful biological profiling, we may be able to develop a rational approach to menopausal HT that safely guides our patients through this transition.

Why humans deviate from rational choice.

PubMed

Hewig, Johannes; Kretschmer, Nora; Trippe, Ralf H; Hecht, Holger; Coles, Michael G H; Holroyd, Clay B; Miltner, Wolfgang H R

2011-04-01

Rational choice theory predicts that humans always optimize the expected utility of options when making decisions. However, in decision-making games, humans often punish their opponents even when doing so reduces their own reward. We used the Ultimatum and Dictator games to examine the affective correlates of decision-making. We show that the feedback negativity, an event-related brain potential that originates in the anterior cingulate cortex that has been related to reinforcement learning, predicts the decision to reject unfair offers in the Ultimatum game. Furthermore, the decision to reject is positively related to more negative emotional reactions and to increased autonomic nervous system activity. These findings support the idea that subjective emotional markers guide decision-making and that the anterior cingulate cortex integrates instances of reinforcement and punishment to provide such affective markers. Copyright © 2010 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Rational functional representation of flap noise spectra including correction for reflection effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miles, J. H.

1974-01-01

A rational function is presented for the acoustic spectra generated by deflection of engine exhaust jets for under-the-wing and over-the-wing versions of externally blown flaps. The functional representation is intended to provide a means for compact storage of data and for data analysis. The expressions are based on Fourier transform functions for the Strouhal normalized pressure spectral density, and on a correction for reflection effects based on Thomas' (1969) N-independent-source model extended by use of a reflected ray transfer function. Curve fit comparisons are presented for blown-flap data taken from turbofan engine tests and from large-scale cold-flow model tests. Application of the rational function to scrubbing noise theory is also indicated.

A rational model of function learning.

PubMed

Lucas, Christopher G; Griffiths, Thomas L; Williams, Joseph J; Kalish, Michael L

2015-10-01

Theories of how people learn relationships between continuous variables have tended to focus on two possibilities: one, that people are estimating explicit functions, or two that they are performing associative learning supported by similarity. We provide a rational analysis of function learning, drawing on work on regression in machine learning and statistics. Using the equivalence of Bayesian linear regression and Gaussian processes, which provide a probabilistic basis for similarity-based function learning, we show that learning explicit rules and using similarity can be seen as two views of one solution to this problem. We use this insight to define a rational model of human function learning that combines the strengths of both approaches and accounts for a wide variety of experimental results.

Adding a Systemic Touch to Rational-Emotive Therapy for Families.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Russell, Todd T.; Morrill, Correen M.

1989-01-01

Proposes a theoretical and practical hybrid model for family counseling based on integrating the rational-emotive and family systems approach. Notes that these combined approaches offer the counselor a systematic theoretical structure for conceptualizing family dysfunction, from which additional strategies for changing inappropriate belief systems…

Rainfall-runoff modeling of the Chapel Branch Creek Watershed using GIS-based rational and SCS-CN methods

Treesearch

Elizabeth N. Mihalik; Norm S. Levine; Devendra M. Amatya

2008-01-01

Chapel Branch Creek (CBC), located within the Town of Santee adjacent to Lake Marion in Orangeburg County, SC, is listed on the SC 2004 303(d) list of impaired waterbodies due to elevated levels of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), chlorophyll-a, and pH. In this study, using a GIS-based approach, two runoff modeling methods, the Rational and SCS-CN methods, have been...

A Model for Determining Optimal Governance Structure in DoD Acquisition Projects in a Performance-Based Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-30

combating market dynamism (Aldrich, 1979; Child, 1972), which is a result of evolving technology, shifting prices, or variance in product availability... principles : (1) human beings are bounded rationally, and (2), as a result of being rationally bound, will always choose to further their own self... principles to govern the relationship among the buyers and suppliers. Our conceptual model aligns the alternative governance structures derived

Expert Decision-Making in Naturalistic Environments: A Summary of Research

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-03-01

a number of descriptive decision theories arose (Plous, 1993). One of these is the rational choice model of decision - making (Janis & Mann, 1977...possible association between time pressure and increased levels of emotion . To date, the role played by emotion in decision - making has not been given... rational choice model seems to describe some decision events and Janis and Mann (1977) have highlighted emotion as a potential influence on decision

Neurobehaviorally Inspired ACT-R Model of Sleep Deprivation: Decreased Performance in Psychomotor Vigilance

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-08-01

ABSTRACT This report describes how changes in architectural parameters in the Adaptive Control of Thought – Rational (ACT-R) can be used to understand...Computational Models of Cognition Cognitive architectures like the Adaptive Control of Thought – Rational (ACT-R) and Soar provide an alternative to...Belavkin (2001) to simulate the role of emotion in decision making; and by Ritter and colleagues (2004) to simulate pre-task appraisal and anxiety

Rational use of cognitive resources: levels of analysis between the computational and the algorithmic.

PubMed

Griffiths, Thomas L; Lieder, Falk; Goodman, Noah D

2015-04-01

Marr's levels of analysis-computational, algorithmic, and implementation-have served cognitive science well over the last 30 years. But the recent increase in the popularity of the computational level raises a new challenge: How do we begin to relate models at different levels of analysis? We propose that it is possible to define levels of analysis that lie between the computational and the algorithmic, providing a way to build a bridge between computational- and algorithmic-level models. The key idea is to push the notion of rationality, often used in defining computational-level models, deeper toward the algorithmic level. We offer a simple recipe for reverse-engineering the mind's cognitive strategies by deriving optimal algorithms for a series of increasingly more realistic abstract computational architectures, which we call "resource-rational analysis." Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Caregiving decision making by older mothers and adult children: process and expected outcome.

PubMed

Cicirelli, Victor G

2006-06-01

Dyadic caregiving decision making was studied in 30 mother-son and 29 mother-daughter pairs (mother's age=65-94 years) who responded to a vignette depicting a caregiving decision situation. The observed decision-making process of mother-child pairs was largely naturalistic, with few alternatives proposed and quick convergence to a decision followed by a postdecision justification; a degree of more rational decision making was seen in some pairs. Among significant findings, adult children, especially sons, dominated the decision process, doing more talking and introducing more alternatives than did their mothers, who played a more subordinate role. Mother-son pairs expected more negative outcomes and greater regrets regarding their decisions than mother-daughter pairs. Closeness of the parent-child relationship influenced the decision-making process, expected outcomes, and regrets. Copyright (c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved.

Bayesian Fundamentalism or Enlightenment? On the explanatory status and theoretical contributions of Bayesian models of cognition.

PubMed

Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

2011-08-01

The prominence of Bayesian modeling of cognition has increased recently largely because of mathematical advances in specifying and deriving predictions from complex probabilistic models. Much of this research aims to demonstrate that cognitive behavior can be explained from rational principles alone, without recourse to psychological or neurological processes and representations. We note commonalities between this rational approach and other movements in psychology - namely, Behaviorism and evolutionary psychology - that set aside mechanistic explanations or make use of optimality assumptions. Through these comparisons, we identify a number of challenges that limit the rational program's potential contribution to psychological theory. Specifically, rational Bayesian models are significantly unconstrained, both because they are uninformed by a wide range of process-level data and because their assumptions about the environment are generally not grounded in empirical measurement. The psychological implications of most Bayesian models are also unclear. Bayesian inference itself is conceptually trivial, but strong assumptions are often embedded in the hypothesis sets and the approximation algorithms used to derive model predictions, without a clear delineation between psychological commitments and implementational details. Comparing multiple Bayesian models of the same task is rare, as is the realization that many Bayesian models recapitulate existing (mechanistic level) theories. Despite the expressive power of current Bayesian models, we argue they must be developed in conjunction with mechanistic considerations to offer substantive explanations of cognition. We lay out several means for such an integration, which take into account the representations on which Bayesian inference operates, as well as the algorithms and heuristics that carry it out. We argue this unification will better facilitate lasting contributions to psychological theory, avoiding the pitfalls that have plagued previous theoretical movements.

Developing stochastic epidemiological models to quantify the dynamics of infectious diseases in domestic livestock.

PubMed

MacKenzie, K; Bishop, S C

2001-08-01

A stochastic model describing disease transmission dynamics for a microparasitic infection in a structured domestic animal population is developed and applied to hypothetical epidemics on a pig farm. Rational decision making regarding appropriate control strategies for infectious diseases in domestic livestock requires an understanding of the disease dynamics and risk profiles for different groups of animals. This is best achieved by means of stochastic epidemic models. Methodologies are presented for 1) estimating the probability of an epidemic, given the presence of an infected animal, whether this epidemic is major (requires intervention) or minor (dies out without intervention), and how the location of the infected animal on the farm influences the epidemic probabilities; 2) estimating the basic reproductive ratio, R0 (i.e., the expected number of secondary cases on the introduction of a single infected animal) and the variability of the estimate of this parameter; and 3) estimating the total proportion of animals infected during an epidemic and the total proportion infected at any point in time. The model can be used for assessing impact of altering farm structure on disease dynamics, as well as disease control strategies, including altering farm structure, vaccination, culling, and genetic selection.

[Inadequate nutrient supply in "BARF" feeding plans for a litter of Bernese Mountain Dog-puppies. A case report].

PubMed

Mack, Julia K; Kienzle, Ellen

2016-10-12

Anamnesis: A litter of Bernese Mountain Dog-puppies (6 weeks of age) was meant to be fed a "BARF" (bones and raw food) diet. The breeder asked for advice regarding the nutritional adequacy of the feeding plans that she had compiled for the different growth stages. The anamnesis showed the puppies to be underweight for their age and expected adult body mass at the time of request for a ration check. The bitch had almost stopped lactating. Ration check: The review of the feeding plans for the different growth stages revealed a deficient energy supply for all stages and at times an inadequate protein supply. A highly inappropriate supply with calcium and phosphorus was found in almost all feeding plans. Sodium and potassium as well as the trace elements copper, zinc, manganese and iodine and several vitamins were deficient in some if not all of the feeding plans. Inadequate supply with such nutrients during the growth phase can lead to severe developmental disorders, especially in large breed puppies. Therefore, a thorough review of self-made rations for puppies carried out by specialised veterinarians appears to be of utmost importance to avoid permanent damage during growth.

Silenced complaints, suppressed expectations: the cumulative effects of home care rationing.

PubMed

Aronson, Jane

2006-01-01

In many Western welfare jurisdictions, publicly provided home care is being eroded and its provision increasingly individualized. These shifts are of a particular significance for older women, a group for whom supportive home care has been an important buttress against the social and physical jeopardies of old age. A longitudinal, qualitative study of such women in Ontario, Canada, spanned the implementation of managed competition in home care and a period of rapid privatization and service rationing. Study participants experienced cuts and, stemming from increasingly precarious employment conditions in the home care workforce, inconsistent care providers. These changes generated distress, insecurity, and isolation in participants' lives. This article explores how their complaints about insufficient care were silenced: by fear, hopelessness, and the cultural injunction to put a stoic and selfless face on the limitations of old age. Their accounts reveal how large material and discursive shifts and state restructuring come to penetrate identity, feeling, and speech. This examination of the silencing of complaint at home care's front lines reveals the cumulative effects of rationing; it also illuminates how, if heard, service users' voices can inform collective struggles to resist the degradation of home care and reposition older people in relation to the state.

Mendelian genetics: Paradigm, conjecture, or research program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oldham, V.; Brouwer, W.

Kuhn's model of the structure of scientific revolutions, Popper's hypothetic-deductive model of science, and Lakatos's methodology of competing research programs are applied to a historical episode in biology. Each of these three models offers a different explanatory system for the development, neglect, and eventual acceptance of Mendel's paradigm of inheritance. The authors conclude that both rational and nonrational criteria play an important role during times of crisis in science, when different research programs compete for acceptance. It is suggested that Kuhn's model, emphasizing the nonrational basis of science, and Popper's model, emphasizing the rational basis of science, can be used fruitfully in high school science courses.

[The prospects of research on VR rehabilitation engineering].

PubMed

Huang, J; Liu, H; Li, H; Sun, Q; Xu, Y; Ling, D

1999-06-01

In this paper, we present the recent development of Vitual Reality (VR) technology and rehabilitation engineering and discuss the rationality and feasibility of the application of VR to rehabilitation. With VR technology, psychological induction can be better introduced in rehabilitating exercises and patients can be tremendously released from fret during traditional physical training for rehabilitation. The VR is expected to bring about a technological revolution in rehabilitation engineering.

Cellular composition and expression of potential stem cell markers in mammary tissue of cows consuming endophyte-infected fescue seed during the dry period and early lactation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We evaluated the impact of consuming endophyte-infected fescue during late pregnancy on parameters of mammary development in Holstein cows. Cows (N = 16) were fed 10% of their ration as tall fescue seed that was free from (CON) or infected with endophyte (INF) from 90d before expected calving until ...

Rational use of analgesic combinations.

PubMed

Phero, James C; Becker, Daniel

2002-10-01

Careful selection of an effective analgesic regimen based on the amount and type of pain the patient is expected to have can prevent the stress and anxiety associated with breakthrough pain. When analgesics fail, it is not unusual for patients to go to desperate lengths to seek relief. The clinician can and should develop a variety of effective, safe analgesic regimens based on estimates of anticipated pain intensity that apply sound pharmacologic principles.

The bias against new innovations in health care: value uncertainty and willingness to pay.

PubMed

Walton, Surrey M; Graves, Philip E; Mueser, Peter R; Dow, Jay K

2002-01-01

This paper offers a model for the bias found in willingness-to-pay valuations against new treatments. For example, this bias provides an explanation for patient preferences that make it difficult for formularies to take treatments off their lists, even when newer treatments would appear to be clearly preferable. The appeal of the model, which is based on imperfect information, is that it is consistent with rational preferences and rational behavior by patients, which are necessary for standard models and methods related to decision theory, cost-effectiveness, and efficiency.

The Function of Educational Administration in the Processes of Cultural Transmission.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bates, Richard J.

A study of the implementation of a rational/bureaucratic model of knowledge in classrooms suggests that current modes of educational administration are based on control, via rational planning, of social relations, individual consciousness, and epistemology. Bureaucratic organization and professionalism enjoy a symbiotic relationship, combined with…

A Rational Analysis of the Acquisition of Multisensory Representations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yildirim, Ilker; Jacobs, Robert A.

2012-01-01

How do people learn multisensory, or amodal, representations, and what consequences do these representations have for perceptual performance? We address this question by performing a rational analysis of the problem of learning multisensory representations. This analysis makes use of a Bayesian nonparametric model that acquires latent multisensory…

Critical Thinking: Rationality, and the Vulcanization of Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walters, Kerry S.

1990-01-01

Although critical thinking has become a pedagogical industry, its endorsement by educators is uncritical. The conventional critical thinking model assumes that only logical thinking is good thinking. However, good thinking also includes rational but nonlogical cognitive functions. To ignore them is to train students in only one aspect of thinking.…

Internationally Minded Schools as Cultural Artefacts: Implications for School Leadership

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hill, Ian

2014-01-01

This article adopts a non-rational, existential, subjective approach to school leadership, on the assumption that rational models provide useful pointers on mechanics such as time management, coaching and staff evaluation, but are less appropriate for grasping the essence of leadership which resides in managing interpersonal relationships and the…

Rational Choice and Developmental Influences on Recidivism Among Adolescent Felony Offenders

PubMed Central

Fagan, Jeffrey; Piquero, Alex R.

2009-01-01

Recent case law and social science both have claimed that the developmental limitations of adolescents affect their capacity for control and decision making with respect to crime, diminishing their culpability and reducing their exposure to punishment. Social science has focused on two concurrent adolescent developmental influences: the internalization of legal rules and norms that regulate social and antisocial behaviors, and the development of rationality to frame behavioral choices and decisions. The interaction of these two developmental processes, and the identification of one domain of socialization and development as the primary source of motivation or restraint in adolescence, is the focus of this article. Accordingly, we combine rational choice and legal socialization frameworks into an integrated, developmental model of criminality. We test this framework in a large sample of adolescent felony offenders who have been interviewed at six-month intervals for two years. Using hierarchical and growth curve models, we show that both legal socialization and rational choice factors influence patterns of criminal offending over time. When punishment risks and costs are salient, crime rates are lower over time. We show that procedural justice is a significant antecedent of legal socialization, but not of rational choice. We also show that both mental health and developmental maturity moderate the effects of perceived crime risks and costs on criminal offending. PMID:20148123

Rational Choice and Developmental Influences on Recidivism Among Adolescent Felony Offenders.

PubMed

Fagan, Jeffrey; Piquero, Alex R

2007-12-01

Recent case law and social science both have claimed that the developmental limitations of adolescents affect their capacity for control and decision making with respect to crime, diminishing their culpability and reducing their exposure to punishment. Social science has focused on two concurrent adolescent developmental influences: the internalization of legal rules and norms that regulate social and antisocial behaviors, and the development of rationality to frame behavioral choices and decisions. The interaction of these two developmental processes, and the identification of one domain of socialization and development as the primary source of motivation or restraint in adolescence, is the focus of this article. Accordingly, we combine rational choice and legal socialization frameworks into an integrated, developmental model of criminality. We test this framework in a large sample of adolescent felony offenders who have been interviewed at six-month intervals for two years. Using hierarchical and growth curve models, we show that both legal socialization and rational choice factors influence patterns of criminal offending over time. When punishment risks and costs are salient, crime rates are lower over time. We show that procedural justice is a significant antecedent of legal socialization, but not of rational choice. We also show that both mental health and developmental maturity moderate the effects of perceived crime risks and costs on criminal offending.

Rapid humanitarian assessments and rationality: a value-of-information study from Iraq, 2003-04.

PubMed

Benini, Aldo; Conley, Charles

2007-03-01

Rapid assessments are one of the standard informational tools in humanitarian response and are supposed to contribute to rational decision-making.(1) The extent to which the assessment organisation itself behaves rationally, however, is an open question. This can be evaluated against multiple criteria, such as the cost and value of the information it collects and its ability to adapt flexibly design or samples when the survey environment changes unforeseeably. An unusual data constellation from two concurrent recent (2003-04) rapid assessments in northern Iraq permits us to model part of the actual assessment behaviour in terms of geographical, community and prior substantive information attributes. The model correctly predicts the decisions, in 79 per cent of the 2,425 local communities in focus, that data collector teams in the Emergency Mine Action Survey made to visit or not to visit. The analysis demonstrates variably rational behaviour under conditions of insecurity, repeated regrouping and incomplete sampling frames. A pronounced bias towards very small rural settlements is irrational for the overall results, but may be a rational strategy of individual survey workers seeking to prolong their employment. Implications for future assessments are sketched in the areas of tools for urban surveys, greater adaptability, including early feedback from users, and sensibility to value-of-information concepts.

Time-domain parameter identification of aeroelastic loads by forced-vibration method for response of flexible structures subject to transient wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Bochao

Slender structures representing civil, mechanical and aerospace systems such as long-span bridges, high-rise buildings, stay cables, power-line cables, high light mast poles, crane-booms and aircraft wings could experience vortex-induced and buffeting excitations below their design wind speeds and divergent self-excited oscillations (flutter) beyond a critical wind speed because these are flexible. Traditional linear aerodynamic theories that are routinely applied for their response prediction are not valid in the galloping, or near-flutter regime, where large-amplitude vibrations could occur and during non-stationary and transient wind excitations that occur, for example, during hurricanes, thunderstorms and gust fronts. The linear aerodynamic load formulation for lift, drag and moment are expressed in terms of aerodynamic functions in frequency domain that are valid for straight-line winds which are stationary or weakly-stationary. Application of the frequency domain formulation is restricted from use in the nonlinear and transient domain because these are valid for linear models and stationary wind. The time-domain aerodynamic force formulations are suitable for finite element modeling, feedback-dependent structural control mechanism, fatigue-life prediction, and above all modeling of transient structural behavior during non-stationary wind phenomena. This has motivated the developing of time-domain models of aerodynamic loads that are in parallel to the existing frequency-dependent models. Parameters defining these time-domain models can be now extracted from wind tunnel tests, for example, the Rational Function Coefficients defining the self-excited wind loads can be extracted using section model tests using the free vibration technique. However, the free vibration method has some limitations because it is difficult to apply at high wind speeds, in turbulent wind environment, or on unstable cross sections with negative aerodynamic damping. In the current research, new algorithms were developed based on forced vibration technique for direct extraction of the Rational Functions. The first of the two algorithms developed uses the two angular phase lag values between the measured vertical or torsional displacement and the measured aerodynamic lift and moment produced on the section model subject to forced vibration to identify the Rational Functions. This algorithm uses two separate one-degree-of-freedom tests (vertical or torsional) to identify all the four Rational Functions or corresponding Rational Function Coefficients for a two degrees-of-freedom (DOF) vertical-torsional vibration model. It was applied to a streamlined section model and the results compared well with those obtained from earlier free vibration experiment. The second algorithm that was developed is based on direct least squares method. It uses all the data points of displacements and aerodynamic lift and moment instead of phase lag values for more accurate estimates. This algorithm can be used for one-, two- and three-degree-of-freedom motions. A two-degree-of-freedom forced vibration system was developed and the algorithm was shown to work well for both streamlined and bluff section models. The uniqueness of the second algorithms lies in the fact that it requires testing the model at only two wind speeds for extraction of all four Rational Functions. The Rational Function Coefficients that were extracted for a streamlined section model using the two-DOF Least Squares algorithm were validated in a separate wind tunnel by testing a larger scaled model subject to straight-line, gusty and boundary-layer wind.

Teaching for rationality: What does it mean for preservice middle level teachers' intellectual development?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleine, Karynne L. M.

The conception of intellectual development has undergone considerable change since Perry's influential study of undergraduates in 1968. Most notably, theorists have tried to account for the fact that women do not appear to be as intellectually developed as men when examined through traditional models that emphasize the use of impersonal and distanced objectivity and logic by acknowledging that rationality may include aspects of emotionalism and subjectivity. One model that shows potential to accurately describe the development of women is presented by Belenky, Clinchy, Goldberger and Tarule (1986). An important application of this development, which holds promise for successful education reform efforts, is the ability to improve the intellectual development of preservice middle level teachers through their teacher preparation programs. Thus, this study sought to (a) examine through case studies the intellectual development of five selected female and male members of a cohort of preservice middle level teachers at Rotunda College (not its real name) exposed to a ten week course emphasizing the use of rationality in various impersonal and relational ways as they developed their teaching practices, and (b) determine whether these preservice teachers came to value rationality as a means to becoming an excellent teacher. This was accomplished by conducting a mixedgender test of the model of intellectual development proposed by Belenky et al. (1986), and by using interviews, questionnaires, and artifacts to note their conceptual changes and changes in their valuing of rationality that occurred over the period of the course. The present study also evaluated Rotunda College's achievement of several aspects of its liberal arts mission. Analysis of qualitative and quantitative data for five case study participants indicates that fostering rationality in preservice middle level teachers through various impersonal and relational ways advances the desire to develop intellectually and supports intellectual growth as shown on measures of intellectual development. Two young, female participants did not demonstrate the high levels or accelerated rates of intellectual development of the other participants, suggesting that there is more work needed in this area to understand the phenomenon of utilizing relational learning environments. Also, the case study students' enhancement of their rational behaviors suggests that Rotunda College, by promoting rationality in a number of ways in its teacher preparation program, successfully imbues those undergraduates with critical aspects of a liberal arts education.

Carbon footprint and land requirement for dairy herd rations: impacts of feed production practices and regional climate variations.

PubMed

Henriksson, M; Cederberg, C; Swensson, C

2014-08-01

Feed production is a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from dairy production and demands large arable and pasture acreage. This study analysed how regional conditions influence GHG emissions of dairy feed rations in a life cycle perspective, that is the carbon footprint (CF) and the land area required. Factors assessed included regional climate variations, grass/clover silage nutrient quality, feedstuff availability, crop yield and feed losses. Using the Nordic feed evaluation model NorFor, rations were optimised for different phases of lactation, dry and growing periods for older cows, first calvers and heifers by regional feed advisors and combined to annual herd rations. Feed production data at farm level were based on national statistics and studies. CF estimates followed standards for life cycle assessment and used emissions factors provided by IPCC. The functional unit was 'feed consumption to produce 1 kg energy corrected milk (ECM) from a cow with annual milk yield of 9 900 kg ECM including replacement animals and feed losses'. Feed ration CF varied from 417 to 531 g CO2 e/kg ECM. Grass/clover silage contributed more than 50% of total GHG emissions. Use of higher quality silage increased ration CF by up to 5% as a result of an additional cut and increased rates of synthetic N-fertiliser. Domestically produced horse bean (Vicia faba), by-products from the sugar industry and maize silage were included in the rations with the lowest CF, but horse bean significantly increased ration land requirement. Rations required between 1.4 to 2 m2 cropland and 0.1 to 0.2 m2/kg semi-natural grassland per kg ECM and year. Higher yield levels reduced ration total CF. Inclusion of GHG emissions from land use change associated with Brazilian soya feed significantly increased ration CF. Ration CF and land use depended on ration composition, which was highly influenced by the regional availability and production of feedstuffs. The impact of individual feedstuffs on ration CF varies due to, for example, cultivation practices and climate conditions and feedstuffs should therefore be assessed in a ration and regional perspective before being used to decrease milk CF. Land use efficiency should be considered together with ration CF, as these can generate goal conflicts.

Linking patient satisfaction with nursing care: the case of care rationing - a correlational study.

PubMed

Papastavrou, Evridiki; Andreou, Panayiota; Tsangari, Haritini; Merkouris, Anastasios

2014-01-01

Implicit rationing of nursing care is the withholding of or failure to carry out all necessary nursing measures due to lack of resources. There is evidence supporting a link between rationing of nursing care, nurses' perceptions of their professional environment, negative patient outcomes, and placing patient safety at risk. The aims of the study were: a) To explore whether patient satisfaction is linked to nurse-reported rationing of nursing care and to nurses' perceptions of their practice environment while adjusting for patient and nurse characteristics. b) To identify the threshold score of rationing by comparing the level of patient satisfaction factors across rationing levels. A descriptive, correlational design was employed. Participants in this study included 352 patients and 318 nurses from ten medical and surgical units of five general hospitals. Three measurement instruments were used: the BERNCA scale for rationing of care, the RPPE scale to explore nurses' perceptions of their work environment and the Patient Satisfaction scale to assess the level of patient satisfaction with nursing care. The statistical analysis included the use of Kendall's correlation coefficient to explore a possible relationship between the variables and multiple regression analysis to assess the effects of implicit rationing of nursing care together with organizational characteristics on patient satisfaction. The mean score of implicit rationing of nursing care was 0.83 (SD = 0.52, range = 0-3), the overall mean of RPPE was 2.76 (SD = 0.32, range = 1.28 - 3.69) and the two scales were significantly correlated (τ = -0.234, p < 0.001). The regression analysis showed that care rationing and work environment were related to patient satisfaction, even after controlling for nurse and patient characteristics. The results from the adjusted regression models showed that even at the lowest level of rationing (i.e. 0.5) patients indicated low satisfaction. The results support the relationships between organizational and environmental variables, care rationing and patient satisfaction. The identification of thresholds at which rationing starts to influence patient outcomes in a negative way may allow nurse managers to introduce interventions so as to keep rationing at a level at which patient safety is not jeopardized.

What is epistemic value in free energy models of learning and acting? A bounded rationality perspective.

PubMed

Ortega, Pedro A; Braun, Daniel A

2015-01-01

Free energy models of learning and acting do not only care about utility or extrinsic value, but also about intrinsic value, that is, the information value stemming from probability distributions that represent beliefs or strategies. While these intrinsic values can be interpreted as epistemic values or exploration bonuses under certain conditions, the framework of bounded rationality offers a complementary interpretation in terms of information-processing costs that we discuss here.

Expected value information improves financial risk taking across the adult life span.

PubMed

Samanez-Larkin, Gregory R; Wagner, Anthony D; Knutson, Brian

2011-04-01

When making decisions, individuals must often compensate for cognitive limitations, particularly in the face of advanced age. Recent findings suggest that age-related variability in striatal activity may increase financial risk-taking mistakes in older adults. In two studies, we sought to further characterize neural contributions to optimal financial risk taking and to determine whether decision aids could improve financial risk taking. In Study 1, neuroimaging analyses revealed that individuals whose mesolimbic activation correlated with the expected value estimates of a rational actor made more optimal financial decisions. In Study 2, presentation of expected value information improved decision making in both younger and older adults, but the addition of a distracting secondary task had little impact on decision quality. Remarkably, provision of expected value information improved the performance of older adults to match that of younger adults at baseline. These findings are consistent with the notion that mesolimbic circuits play a critical role in optimal choice, and imply that providing simplified information about expected value may improve financial risk taking across the adult life span.

A subjective supply-demand model: the maximum Boltzmann/Shannon entropy solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piotrowski, Edward W.; Sładkowski, Jan

2009-03-01

The present authors have put forward a projective geometry model of rational trading. The expected (mean) value of the time that is necessary to strike a deal and the profit strongly depend on the strategies adopted. A frequent trader often prefers maximal profit intensity to the maximization of profit resulting from a separate transaction because the gross profit/income is the adopted/recommended benchmark. To investigate activities that have different periods of duration we define, following the queuing theory, the profit intensity as a measure of this economic category. The profit intensity in repeated trading has a unique property of attaining its maximum at a fixed point regardless of the shape of demand curves for a wide class of probability distributions of random reverse transactions (i.e. closing of the position). These conclusions remain valid for an analogous model based on supply analysis. This type of market game is often considered in research aiming at finding an algorithm that maximizes profit of a trader who negotiates prices with the Rest of the World (a collective opponent), possessing a definite and objective supply profile. Such idealization neglects the sometimes important influence of an individual trader on the demand/supply profile of the Rest of the World and in extreme cases questions the very idea of demand/supply profile. Therefore we put forward a trading model in which the demand/supply profile of the Rest of the World induces the (rational) trader to (subjectively) presume that he/she lacks (almost) all knowledge concerning the market but his/her average frequency of trade. This point of view introduces maximum entropy principles into the model and broadens the range of economic phenomena that can be perceived as a sort of thermodynamical system. As a consequence, the profit intensity has a fixed point with an astonishing connection with Fibonacci classical works and looking for the quickest algorithm for obtaining the extremum of a convex function: the profit intensity reaches its maximum when the probability of transaction is given by the golden ratio rule (\\sqrt {5}-1)/{2} . This condition sets a sharp criterion of validity of the model and can be tested with real market data.

Dynamics of market structure driven by the degree of consumer’s rationality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yanagita, Tatsuo; Onozaki, Tamotsu

2010-03-01

We study a simple model of market share dynamics with boundedly rational consumers and firms interacting with each other. As the number of consumers is large, we employ a statistical description to represent firms’ distribution of consumer share, which is characterized by a single parameter representing how rationally the mass of consumers pursue higher utility. As the boundedly rational firm does not know the shape of demand function it faces, it revises production and price so as to raise its profit with the aid of a simple reinforcement learning rule. Simulation results show that (1) three phases of market structure, i.e. the uniform share phase, the oligopolistic phase, and the monopolistic phase, appear depending upon how rational consumers are, and (2) in an oligopolistic phase, the market share distribution of firms follows Zipf’s law and the growth-rate distribution of firms follows Gibrat’s law, and (3) an oligopolistic phase is the best state of market in terms of consumers’ utility but brings the minimum profit to the firms because of severe competition based on the moderate rationality of consumers.

Bounded rationality leads to equilibrium of public goods games.

PubMed

Xu, Zhaojin; Wang, Zhen; Zhang, Lianzhong

2009-12-01

In this work, we introduce a degree of rationality to the public goods games in which players can determine whether or not to participate, and with it a new mechanism has been established. Existence of the bounded rationality would lead to a new equilibrium which differs from the Nash equilibrium and qualitatively explains the fundamental role of loners' payoff for maintaining cooperation. Meanwhile, it is shown how the potential strategy influences the players' decision. Finally, we explicitly demonstrate a rock-scissors-paper dynamics which is a consequence of this model.

Bounded rationality leads to equilibrium of public goods games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhaojin; Wang, Zhen; Zhang, Lianzhong

2009-12-01

In this work, we introduce a degree of rationality to the public goods games in which players can determine whether or not to participate, and with it a new mechanism has been established. Existence of the bounded rationality would lead to a new equilibrium which differs from the Nash equilibrium and qualitatively explains the fundamental role of loners’ payoff for maintaining cooperation. Meanwhile, it is shown how the potential strategy influences the players’ decision. Finally, we explicitly demonstrate a rock-scissors-paper dynamics which is a consequence of this model.

Gender perspective in medicine: a vital part of medical scientific rationality. A useful model for comprehending structures and hierarchies within medical science.

PubMed

Risberg, Gunilla; Hamberg, Katarina; Johansson, Eva E

2006-08-24

During the past few decades, research has reported gender bias in various areas of clinical and academic medicine. To prevent such bias, a gender perspective in medicine has been requested, but difficulties and resistance have been reported from implementation attempts. Our study aimed at analysing this resistance in relation to what is considered good medical research. We used a theoretical model, based on scientific competition, to understand the structures of scientific medicine and how they might influence the resistance to a gender perspective in medicine. The model was originally introduced to discuss how pluralism improves rationality in the social sciences. The model provided a way to conceptualise different fields of research in medicine: basic research, applied research, medical philosophy, and 'empowering' research. It clarified how various research approaches within medicine relate to each other, and how they differ and compete. It also indicated why there might be conflicts between them: basic and applied research performed within the biomedical framework have higher status than gender research and other research approaches that are performed within divergent research paradigms. This hierarchy within medical research contributes to the resistance to a gender perspective, causing gender bias and making medical scientific rationality suboptimal. We recommend that the theoretical model can be applied in a wider medical context when different and hierarchically arranged research traditions are in conflict. In this way, the model might contribute to shape a medical community where scientific pluralism is acknowledged to enlarge, not to disturb, the scientific rationality of medicine.

Gender perspective in medicine: a vital part of medical scientific rationality. A useful model for comprehending structures and hierarchies within medical science

PubMed Central

Risberg, Gunilla; Hamberg, Katarina; Johansson, Eva E

2006-01-01

Background During the past few decades, research has reported gender bias in various areas of clinical and academic medicine. To prevent such bias, a gender perspective in medicine has been requested, but difficulties and resistance have been reported from implementation attempts. Our study aimed at analysing this resistance in relation to what is considered good medical research. Method We used a theoretical model, based on scientific competition, to understand the structures of scientific medicine and how they might influence the resistance to a gender perspective in medicine. The model was originally introduced to discuss how pluralism improves rationality in the social sciences. Results The model provided a way to conceptualise different fields of research in medicine: basic research, applied research, medical philosophy, and 'empowering' research. It clarified how various research approaches within medicine relate to each other, and how they differ and compete. It also indicated why there might be conflicts between them: basic and applied research performed within the biomedical framework have higher status than gender research and other research approaches that are performed within divergent research paradigms. Conclusion This hierarchy within medical research contributes to the resistance to a gender perspective, causing gender bias and making medical scientific rationality suboptimal. We recommend that the theoretical model can be applied in a wider medical context when different and hierarchically arranged research traditions are in conflict. In this way, the model might contribute to shape a medical community where scientific pluralism is acknowledged to enlarge, not to disturb, the scientific rationality of medicine. PMID:16928283

Decision-Making under Risk of Loss in Children

PubMed Central

Steelandt, Sophie; Broihanne, Marie-Hélène; Romain, Amélie; Thierry, Bernard; Dufour, Valérie

2013-01-01

In human adults, judgment errors are known to often lead to irrational decision-making in risky contexts. While these errors can affect the accuracy of profit evaluation, they may have once enhanced survival in dangerous contexts following a “better be safe than sorry” rule of thumb. Such a rule can be critical for children, and it could develop early on. Here, we investigated the rationality of choices and the possible occurrence of judgment errors in children aged 3 to 9 years when exposed to a risky trade. Children were allocated with a piece of cookie that they could either keep or risk in exchange of the content of one cup among 6, visible in front of them. In the cups, cookies could be of larger, equal or smaller sizes than the initial allocation. Chances of losing or winning were manipulated by presenting different combinations of cookie sizes in the cups (for example 3 large, 2 equal and 1 small cookie). We investigated the rationality of children's response using the theoretical models of Expected Utility Theory (EUT) and Cumulative Prospect Theory. Children aged 3 to 4 years old were unable to discriminate the profitability of exchanging in the different combinations. From 5 years, children were better at maximizing their benefit in each combination, their decisions were negatively induced by the probability of losing, and they exhibited a framing effect, a judgment error found in adults. Confronting data to the EUT indicated that children aged over 5 were risk-seekers but also revealed inconsistencies in their choices. According to a complementary model, the Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT), they exhibited loss aversion, a pattern also found in adults. These findings confirm that adult-like judgment errors occur in children, which suggests that they possess a survival value. PMID:23349682

Decision-making under risk of loss in children.

PubMed

Steelandt, Sophie; Broihanne, Marie-Hélène; Romain, Amélie; Thierry, Bernard; Dufour, Valérie

2013-01-01

In human adults, judgment errors are known to often lead to irrational decision-making in risky contexts. While these errors can affect the accuracy of profit evaluation, they may have once enhanced survival in dangerous contexts following a "better be safe than sorry" rule of thumb. Such a rule can be critical for children, and it could develop early on. Here, we investigated the rationality of choices and the possible occurrence of judgment errors in children aged 3 to 9 years when exposed to a risky trade. Children were allocated with a piece of cookie that they could either keep or risk in exchange of the content of one cup among 6, visible in front of them. In the cups, cookies could be of larger, equal or smaller sizes than the initial allocation. Chances of losing or winning were manipulated by presenting different combinations of cookie sizes in the cups (for example 3 large, 2 equal and 1 small cookie). We investigated the rationality of children's response using the theoretical models of Expected Utility Theory (EUT) and Cumulative Prospect Theory. Children aged 3 to 4 years old were unable to discriminate the profitability of exchanging in the different combinations. From 5 years, children were better at maximizing their benefit in each combination, their decisions were negatively induced by the probability of losing, and they exhibited a framing effect, a judgment error found in adults. Confronting data to the EUT indicated that children aged over 5 were risk-seekers but also revealed inconsistencies in their choices. According to a complementary model, the Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT), they exhibited loss aversion, a pattern also found in adults. These findings confirm that adult-like judgment errors occur in children, which suggests that they possess a survival value.

How to Love the Bomb: Trying to solve the prisoner's dilemma with evolutionary game theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castela, Vasco

Economists traditionally see altruistic acts as irrational. However, in the Prisoner's Dilemma, a rational player can do worse than a moral player. The rules of the game imply that one cannot defend one's best interest if one tries to. Game theory has struggled to explain how an agent could have access to the strategically best outcome without behaving irrationally, but with little success. Can a complex systems approach do better?. Peter Danielson, using Evolutionary Game Theory, has avoided some of the assumptions of Game Theory by using a complexity approach to reframe the problem, and offers a solution of sorts. According to Danielson, the foundations of altruism are mechanisms of deterrence that rely on credible threat - we are nice for fear of retaliation. He is both right and wrong. It will be argued that utilitarian, consequentialist principles must have been at work to create the conditions for altruistic acts to be performed. It is wrong to expect, however, that the same reasons are the reasons for action. In order for a model of genuine altruism to be possible, an extra cog must be inserted in the mechanism of causality in order to distance moral action from its strategic advantages. If emotions fulfill this role, we can tell a story in which it is rational to act on altruistic motivations and materially advantageous to hold such motivations. Moral sentiments can be seen as a tool designed by evolution to help optimize cooperation in a social environment. The proposed account integrates the Humean theory of motivation with Robert Frank's commitment model and Aristotle's views on moral education, keeping an adequate story of how it can be in our material interest to be moral without having to renounce to the existence of genuine acts of altruism.

Environmental Sustainability Analysis and Nutritional Strategies of Animal Production in China.

PubMed

Tan, Bie; Yin, Yulong

2017-02-08

Animal production in China has achieved considerable progress and contributes to 46% of the total agriculture output value of the country. However, this fast expansion of animal production has led to environmental pollution. In this article, we review the status of soil, water, and air pollution associated with animal production in China and analyze the main sources of the pollutants. The government has promulgated regulations and standards, and effective models and technologies have been developed to control pollution during the last 10 years. Because nutrition and feed strategies represent the most effective method of controlling environmental pollution at the source, this review focuses on nutritional technologies, including accurate feed formulation, rational use of additives, and proper processing of feeds. The advances of modern biotechnology and big data systems also provide more modern approaches to decreasing wastage release. These nutritional strategies are expected to promote sustainable development of animal production.

Novel inhibitor against Malassezia globosa LIP1 (SMG1), a potential anti-dandruff target.

PubMed

Guo, Shaohua; Huang, Wenkang; Zhang, Jian; Wang, Yonghua

2015-09-01

Compelling evidence have demonstrated the role of lipase activity in the pathogenicity of Malassezia globosa toward dandruff and seborrheic dermatitis (D/SD). As a representative secreted lipase from M. globosa CBS 7966, Malassezia globosa LIP1 (SMG1) is considered a potential anti-dandruff target. In this study, homology modeling, docking-based virtual screening and in vitro lipase-based assay were integrated to identify the first hit compound against SMG1, with an IC50 of 20 μM against synthetic lipase substrate, and of 0.19 μM when using natural lipase substrate. Evaluation of similar compounds, along with docking, offered information on the binding patterns of the hit compound. This work is expected to serve as a starting point for the rational design of more potent inhibitors against SMG1. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

What attitudes and beliefs underlie patients' decisions about participating in chemotherapy trials?

PubMed

Sutherland, H J; da Cunha, R; Lockwood, G A; Till, J E

1998-01-01

The theory of reasoned action, which postulates that personal attitudes and external social influences predict intentions to undertake a behavior, was used as a conceptual framework for developing a questionnaire to elicit beliefs and attitudes associated with the decision to participate in a hypothetical cancer chemotherapy trial. After completing the questionnaire, two-thirds of the 150 respondents indicated they would enroll in such a trial if it were available. Considerable variation existed in both "universal" and "trial-specific" beliefs and attitudes underpinning their intentions. A substantial amount of the variance in "intention" to participate was explained by "attitude" alone (75%). Social influences, although statistically significant, made a mere 1% additional contribution. One interpretation is that subjective expected-utility theory, which essentially predicts beliefs or "attitude," is a better model. The authors conclude that both theories may be criticized regarding how well they capture the rationality and nuances of decision behavior.

Ups and downs of economics and econophysics — Facebook forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gajic, Nenad; Budinski-Petkovic, Ljuba

2013-01-01

What is econophysics and its relationship with economics? What is the state of economics after the global economic crisis, and is there a future for the paradigm of market equilibrium, with imaginary perfect competition and rational agents? Can the next paradigm of economics adopt important assumptions derived from econophysics models: that markets are chaotic systems, striving to extremes as bubbles and crashes show, with psychologically motivated, statistically predictable individual behaviors? Is the future of econophysics, as predicted here, to disappear and become a part of economics? A good test of the current state of econophysics and its methods is the valuation of Facebook immediately after the initial public offering - this forecast indicates that Facebook is highly overvalued, and its IPO valuation of 104 billion dollars is mostly the new financial bubble based on the expectations of unlimited growth, although it’s easy to prove that Facebook is close to the upper limit of its users.

Application of double-hybrid density functionals to charge transfer in N-substituted pentacenequinones.

PubMed

Sancho-García, J C

2012-05-07

A set of N-heteroquinones, deriving from oligoacenes, have been recently proposed as n-type organic semiconductors with high electron mobilities in thin-film transistors. Generally speaking, this class of compounds self-assembles in neighboring π-stacks linked by weak hydrogen bonds. We aim at theoretically characterizing here the sequential charge transport (hopping) process expected to take place across these arrays of molecules. To do so, we need to accurately address the preferred packing of these materials simultaneously to single-molecule properties related to charge-transfer events, carefully employing dispersion-corrected density functional theory methods to accurately extract the key molecular parameters governing this phenomenon at the nanoscale. This study confirms the great deal of interest around these compounds, since controlled functionalization of model molecules (i.e., pentacene) allows to efficiently tune the corresponding charge mobilities, and the capacity of modern quantum-chemical methods to predict it after rationalizing the underlying structure-property relationships.

Medical research funding may have over-expanded and be due for collapse.

PubMed

Charlton, B G; Andras, P

2005-01-01

The continual and uninterrupted expansion of medical research funding is generally assumed to be a permanent feature of modern societies, but this expectation may turn out to be mistaken. Sciences tend to go through boom and bust phases. Twentieth century physics is an example where huge increases in funding followed an era of scientific breakthroughs. Speculative over-expansion led to diminishing returns on investment, then a collapse in funding. We predict that medicine will follow the same trajectory. After prolonged over-funding of the 'basic-to-applied' model of clinical innovation, and a progressive shift towards Big Science organization, medical research has become increasingly inefficient and ineffective. Although incremental improvements to existing treatment strategies continue, the rate of significant therapeutic breakthroughs has been declining for three decades. Medical science now requires rationalization and modernization. From this perspective, the current level of medical research funding looks like a bubble due to burst.

Within-Day Recharge of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Energy Impact of Public Charging Infrastructure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dong, Jing; Lin, Zhenhong

2012-01-01

This paper studies the role of public charging infrastructure in increasing PHEV s share of driving on electricity and the resulting petroleum use reduction. Using vehicle activity data obtained from the GPS-tracking household travel survey in Austin, Texas, gasoline and electricity consumptions of PHEVs in real world driving context are estimated. Driver s within-day recharging behavior, constrained by travel activities and public charger network, is modeled as a boundedly rational decision and incorporated in the energy use estimation. The key findings from the Austin dataset include: (1) public charging infrastructure makes PHEV a competitive vehicle choice for consumers without amore » home charger; (2) providing sufficient public charging service is expected to significantly reduce petroleum consumption of PHEVs; and (3) public charging opportunities offer greater benefits for PHEVs with a smaller battery pack, as within-day recharges compensate battery capacity.« less

Parallel synthesis of libraries of anodic and cathodic functionalized electrodeposition paints as immobilization matrix for amperometric biosensors.

PubMed

Ngounou, Bertrand; Aliyev, Elchin H; Guschin, Dmitrii A; Sultanov, Yusif M; Efendiev, Ayaz A; Schuhmann, Wolfgang

2007-09-01

The integration of flexible anchoring groups bearing imidazolyl or pyridyl substituents into the structure of electrodeposition paints (EDP) is the basis for the parallel synthesis of a library containing 107 members of different cathodic and anodic EDPs with a high variation in polymer properties. The obtained EDPs were used as immobilization matrix for biosensor fabrication using glucose oxidase as a model enzyme. Amperometric glucose sensors based on the different EDPs showed a wide variation in their sensor characteristics with respect to the apparent Michaelis-Menten constant (KM(app)) representing the linear measuring range and the maximum current (Imax(app)). Based on these results first assumptions concerning the impact of different side chains in the EDP on the expected biosensor properties could be obtained allowing for an improved rational optimization of EDPs used as immobilization matrix in amperometric biosensors.

Rational Design of Mouse Models for Cancer Research.

PubMed

Landgraf, Marietta; McGovern, Jacqui A; Friedl, Peter; Hutmacher, Dietmar W

2018-03-01

The laboratory mouse is widely considered as a valid and affordable model organism to study human disease. Attempts to improve the relevance of murine models for the investigation of human pathologies led to the development of various genetically engineered, xenograft and humanized mouse models. Nevertheless, most preclinical studies in mice suffer from insufficient predictive value when compared with cancer biology and therapy response of human patients. We propose an innovative strategy to improve the predictive power of preclinical cancer models. Combining (i) genomic, tissue engineering and regenerative medicine approaches for rational design of mouse models with (ii) rapid prototyping and computational benchmarking against human clinical data will enable fast and nonbiased validation of newly generated models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rational behavior is a ‘double-edged sword’ when considering voluntary vaccination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Haifeng; Fu, Feng; Zhang, Wenyao; Wang, Binghong

2012-10-01

Of particular importance for public health is how to understand strategic vaccination behavior in social networks. Social learning is a central aspect of human behavior, and it thus shapes vaccination individuals’ decision-making. Here, we study two simple models to address the impact of the more rational decision-making of individuals on voluntary vaccination. In the first model, individuals are endowed with memory capacity for their past experiences of dealing with vaccination. In addition to their current payoffs, they also take account of the historical payoffs that are discounted by a memory-decaying factor. They use such overall payoffs (weighing the current payoffs and historical payoffs) to reassess their vaccination strategies. Those who have higher overall payoffs are more likely imitated by their social neighbors. In the second model, individuals do not blindly learn the strategies of neighbors; they also combine the fraction of infection in the past epidemic season. If the fraction of infection surpasses the perceived risk threshold, individuals will increase the probability of taking vaccination. Otherwise, they will decrease the probability of taking vaccination. Then we use evolutionary game theory to study the vaccination behavior of people during an epidemiological process. To do this, we propose a two-stage model: individuals make vaccination decisions during a yearly vaccination campaign, followed by an epidemic season. This forms a feedback loop between the vaccination decisions of individuals and their health outcomes, and thus payoffs. We find that the two more rational decision-making models have nontrivial impacts on the vaccination behavior of individuals, and, as a result, on the final fraction of infection. Our results highlight that, from an individual’s viewpoint, the decisions are optimal and more rational. However, from the social viewpoint, the strategies of individuals can give rise to distinct outcomes. Namely, the rational behavior of individuals plays a ‘double-edged-sword’ role on the social effects.

Efficient Data-Worth Analysis Using a Multilevel Monte Carlo Method Applied in Oil Reservoir Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, D.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Evans, K. J.

2017-12-01

Data-worth analysis plays an essential role in improving the understanding of the subsurface system, in developing and refining subsurface models, and in supporting rational water resources management. However, data-worth analysis is computationally expensive as it requires quantifying parameter uncertainty, prediction uncertainty, and both current and potential data uncertainties. Assessment of these uncertainties in large-scale stochastic subsurface simulations using standard Monte Carlo (MC) sampling or advanced surrogate modeling is extremely computationally intensive, sometimes even infeasible. In this work, we propose efficient Bayesian analysis of data-worth using a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method. Compared to the standard MC that requires a significantly large number of high-fidelity model executions to achieve a prescribed accuracy in estimating expectations, the MLMC can substantially reduce the computational cost with the use of multifidelity approximations. As the data-worth analysis involves a great deal of expectation estimations, the cost savings from MLMC in the assessment can be very outstanding. While the proposed MLMC-based data-worth analysis is broadly applicable, we use it to a highly heterogeneous oil reservoir simulation to select an optimal candidate data set that gives the largest uncertainty reduction in predicting mass flow rates at four production wells. The choices made by the MLMC estimation are validated by the actual measurements of the potential data, and consistent with the estimation obtained from the standard MC. But compared to the standard MC, the MLMC greatly reduces the computational costs in the uncertainty reduction estimation, with up to 600 days cost savings when one processor is used.

Rational Design of Protein Stability: Effect of (2S,4R)-4-Fluoroproline on the Stability and Folding Pathway of Ubiquitin

PubMed Central

Crespo, Maria D.; Rubini, Marina

2011-01-01

Background Many strategies have been employed to increase the conformational stability of proteins. The use of 4-substituted proline analogs capable to induce pre-organization in target proteins is an attractive tool to deliver an additional conformational stability without perturbing the overall protein structure. Both, peptides and proteins containing 4-fluorinated proline derivatives can be stabilized by forcing the pyrrolidine ring in its favored puckering conformation. The fluorinated pyrrolidine rings of proline can preferably stabilize either a Cγ-exo or a Cγ-endo ring pucker in dependence of proline chirality (4R/4S) in a complex protein structure. To examine whether this rational strategy can be generally used for protein stabilization, we have chosen human ubiquitin as a model protein which contains three proline residues displaying Cγ-exo puckering. Methodology/Principal Findings While (2S,4R)-4-fluoroproline ((4R)-FPro) containing ubiquitinin can be expressed in related auxotrophic Escherichia coli strain, all attempts to incorporate (2S,4S)-4-fluoroproline ((4S)-FPro) failed. Our results indicate that (4R)-FPro is favoring the Cγ-exo conformation present in the wild type structure and stabilizes the protein structure due to a pre-organization effect. This was confirmed by thermal and guanidinium chloride-induced denaturation profile analyses, where we observed an increase in stability of −4.71 kJ·mol−1 in the case of (4R)-FPro containing ubiquitin ((4R)-FPro-ub) compared to wild type ubiquitin (wt-ub). Expectedly, activity assays revealed that (4R)-FPro-ub retained the full biological activity compared to wt-ub. Conclusions/Significance The results fully confirm the general applicability of incorporating fluoroproline derivatives for improving protein stability. In general, a rational design strategy that enforces the natural occurring proline puckering conformation can be used to stabilize the desired target protein. PMID:21625626

Sustainable Odds: Towards Quantitative Decision Support when Relevant Probabilities are not Available

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, L. A.

2012-04-01

There is, at present, no attractive foundation for quantitative probabilistic decision support in the face of model inadequacy, or given ambiguity (deep uncertainty) regarding the relative likelihood of various outcomes, known or unknown. True model error arguably precludes the extraction of objective probabilities from an ensemble of model runs drawn from an available (inadequate) model class, while the acknowledgement of incomplete understanding precludes the justified use of (if not the very formation of) an individual's subjective probabilities. An alternative approach based on Sustainable Odds is proposed and investigated. Sustainable Odds differ from "fair odds" (and are easily distinguished any claim which implying well defined probabilities) as the probabilities implied by sustainable odds summed over all outcomes is expected to exceed one. Traditionally, a person's fair odds are found by identifying the probability level at which one would happily accept either side of a bet, thus the probabilities implied by fair odds always sum to one. Knowing that one has incomplete information and perhaps even erroneous beliefs, there is no compelling reason a rational agent should accept the constraint implied by "fair odds" in any bet. Rather, a rational agent might insist on longer odds both on the event and against the event in order to account for acknowledged ignorance. Let probabilistic odds imply any set of odds for which the implied probabilities sum to one; once model error is acknowledged can one rationally demand non-probabilistic odds? The danger of using fair odds (or probabilities) in decision making is illustrated by considering the risk of ruin a cooperative insurance scheme using probabilistic odds is exposed to. Cases where knowing merely that the insurer's model is imperfect, and nothing else, is sufficient to place bets which drive the insurer to an unexpectedly early ruin are presented. Methodologies which allow the insurer to avoid this early ruin are explored; those which prevent early ruin are said to provide "sustainable odds", and it is suggested that these must be non-probabilistic. The aim here is not for the insurance cooperative to make a profit in the long run (or to form a book in any one round) but rather to increase the chance that the cooperative will not go bust, merely breaking even in the long run and thereby continuing to provide a service. In the perfect model scenario, with complete knowledge of all uncertainties and unlimited computational resources, fair odds may prove to be sustainable. The implications these results hold in the case of games against nature, which is perhaps a more relevant context for decision makers concerned with geophysical systems, are discussed. The claim that acknowledged model error makes fair (probabilistic) odds an irrational aim is considered, as are the challenges of working within the framework of sustainable (but non-probabilistic) odds.

Modeling Opponents in Adversarial Risk Analysis.

PubMed

Rios Insua, David; Banks, David; Rios, Jesus

2016-04-01

Adversarial risk analysis has been introduced as a framework to deal with risks derived from intentional actions of adversaries. The analysis supports one of the decisionmakers, who must forecast the actions of the other agents. Typically, this forecast must take account of random consequences resulting from the set of selected actions. The solution requires one to model the behavior of the opponents, which entails strategic thinking. The supported agent may face different kinds of opponents, who may use different rationality paradigms, for example, the opponent may behave randomly, or seek a Nash equilibrium, or perform level-k thinking, or use mirroring, or employ prospect theory, among many other possibilities. We describe the appropriate analysis for these situations, and also show how to model the uncertainty about the rationality paradigm used by the opponent through a Bayesian model averaging approach, enabling a fully decision-theoretic solution. We also show how as we observe an opponent's decision behavior, this approach allows learning about the validity of each of the rationality models used to predict his decision by computing the models' (posterior) probabilities, which can be understood as a measure of their validity. We focus on simultaneous decision making by two agents. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Algebraic grid adaptation method using non-uniform rational B-spline surface modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Jiann-Cherng; Soni, B. K.

1992-01-01

An algebraic adaptive grid system based on equidistribution law and utilized by the Non-Uniform Rational B-Spline (NURBS) surface for redistribution is presented. A weight function, utilizing a properly weighted boolean sum of various flow field characteristics is developed. Computational examples are presented to demonstrate the success of this technique.

Explaining Academic Progress via Combining Concepts of Integration Theory and Rational Choice Theory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beekhoven, S.; De Jong, U.; Van Hout, H.

2002-01-01

Compared elements of rational choice theory and integration theory on the basis of their power to explain variance in academic progress. Asserts that the concepts should be combined, and the distinction between social and academic integration abandoned. Empirical analysis showed that an extended model, comprising both integration and rational…

Herding, social influence and economic decision-making: socio-psychological and neuroscientific analyses.

PubMed

Baddeley, Michelle

2010-01-27

Typically, modern economics has steered away from the analysis of sociological and psychological factors and has focused on narrow behavioural assumptions in which expectations are formed on the basis of mathematical algorithms. Blending together ideas from the social and behavioural sciences, this paper argues that the behavioural approach adopted in most economic analysis, in its neglect of sociological and psychological forces and its simplistically dichotomous categorization of behaviour as either rational or not rational, is too narrow and stark. Behaviour may reflect an interaction of cognitive and emotional factors and this can be captured more effectively using an approach that focuses on the interplay of different decision-making systems. In understanding the mechanisms affecting economic and financial decision-making, an interdisciplinary approach is needed which incorporates ideas from a range of disciplines including sociology, economic psychology, evolutionary biology and neuroeconomics.

On the relative independence of thinking biases and cognitive ability.

PubMed

Stanovich, Keith E; West, Richard F

2008-04-01

In 7 different studies, the authors observed that a large number of thinking biases are uncorrelated with cognitive ability. These thinking biases include some of the most classic and well-studied biases in the heuristics and biases literature, including the conjunction effect, framing effects, anchoring effects, outcome bias, base-rate neglect, "less is more" effects, affect biases, omission bias, myside bias, sunk-cost effect, and certainty effects that violate the axioms of expected utility theory. In a further experiment, the authors nonetheless showed that cognitive ability does correlate with the tendency to avoid some rational thinking biases, specifically the tendency to display denominator neglect, probability matching rather than maximizing, belief bias, and matching bias on the 4-card selection task. The authors present a framework for predicting when cognitive ability will and will not correlate with a rational thinking tendency. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved.

Herding, social influence and economic decision-making: socio-psychological and neuroscientific analyses

PubMed Central

Baddeley, Michelle

2010-01-01

Typically, modern economics has steered away from the analysis of sociological and psychological factors and has focused on narrow behavioural assumptions in which expectations are formed on the basis of mathematical algorithms. Blending together ideas from the social and behavioural sciences, this paper argues that the behavioural approach adopted in most economic analysis, in its neglect of sociological and psychological forces and its simplistically dichotomous categorization of behaviour as either rational or not rational, is too narrow and stark. Behaviour may reflect an interaction of cognitive and emotional factors and this can be captured more effectively using an approach that focuses on the interplay of different decision-making systems. In understanding the mechanisms affecting economic and financial decision-making, an interdisciplinary approach is needed which incorporates ideas from a range of disciplines including sociology, economic psychology, evolutionary biology and neuroeconomics. PMID:20026466

Circumcision policy: A psychosocial perspective.

PubMed

Goldman, Ronald

2004-11-01

The debate about the advisability of circumcision in English-speaking countries has typically focused on the potential health factors. The position statements of committees from national medical organizations are expected to be evidence-based; however, the contentiousness of the ongoing debate suggests that other factors are involved. Various potential factors related to psychology, sociology, religion and culture may also underlie policy decisions. These factors could affect the values and attitudes of medical committee members, the process of evaluating the medical literature and the medical literature itself. Although medical professionals highly value rationality, it can be difficult to conduct a rational and objective evaluation of an emotional and controversial topic such as circumcision. A negotiated compromise between polarized committee factions could introduce additional psychosocial factors. These possibilities are speculative, not conclusive. It is recommended that an open discussion of psychosocial factors take place and that the potential biases of committee members be recognized.

A tunable azine covalent organic framework platform for visible light-induced hydrogen generation

PubMed Central

Vyas, Vijay S.; Haase, Frederik; Stegbauer, Linus; Savasci, Gökcen; Podjaski, Filip; Ochsenfeld, Christian; Lotsch, Bettina V.

2015-01-01

Hydrogen evolution from photocatalytic reduction of water holds promise as a sustainable source of carbon-free energy. Covalent organic frameworks (COFs) present an interesting new class of photoactive materials, which combine three key features relevant to the photocatalytic process, namely crystallinity, porosity and tunability. Here we synthesize a series of water- and photostable 2D azine-linked COFs from hydrazine and triphenylarene aldehydes with varying number of nitrogen atoms. The electronic and steric variations in the precursors are transferred to the resulting frameworks, thus leading to a progressively enhanced light-induced hydrogen evolution with increasing nitrogen content in the frameworks. Our results demonstrate that by the rational design of COFs on a molecular level, it is possible to precisely adjust their structural and optoelectronic properties, thus resulting in enhanced photocatalytic activities. This is expected to spur further interest in these photofunctional frameworks where rational supramolecular engineering may lead to new material applications. PMID:26419805

Modeling fractal cities using the correlated percolation model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makse, Hernán A.; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene

1996-03-01

Cities grow in a way that might be expected to resemble the growth of two-dimensional aggregates of particles, and this has led to recent attempts to model urban growth using ideas from the statistical physics of clusters. In particular, the model of diffusion limited aggregation (DLA) has been invoked to rationalize the apparently fractal nature of urban morphologies(M. Batty and P. Longley, Fractal Cities) (Academic, San Diego, 1994). The DLA model predicts that there should exist only one large fractal cluster, which is almost perfectly screened from incoming 'development units' (representing, for example, people, capital or resources), so that almost all of the cluster growth takes place at the tips of the cluster's branches. We show that an alternative model(H. A. Makse, S. Havlin, H. E. Stanley, Nature 377), 608 (1995), in which development units are correlated rather than being added to the cluster at random, is better able to reproduce the observed morphology of cities and the area distribution of sub-clusters ('towns') in an urban system, and can also describe urban growth dynamics. Our physical model, which corresponds to the correlated percolation model in the presence of a density gradient, is motivated by the fact that in urban areas development attracts further development. The model offers the possibility of predicting the global properties (such as scaling behavior) of urban morphologies.

Anger and the ABC model underlying Rational-Emotive Behavior Therapy.

PubMed

Ziegler, Daniel J; Smith, Phillip N

2004-06-01

The ABC model underlying Ellis's Rational-Emotive Behavior Therapy predicts that people who think more irrationally should display greater trait anger than do people who think less irrationally. This study tested this prediction regarding the ABC model. 186 college students were administered the Survey of Personal Beliefs and the State-Trait Anger Expression Inventory-Second Edition to measure irrational thinking and trait anger, respectively. Students who scored higher on Overall Irrational Thinking and Low Frustration Tolerance scored significantly higher on Trait Anger than did those who scored lower on Overall Irrational Thinking and Low Frustration Tolerance. This indicates support for the ABC model, especially Ellis's construct of irrational beliefs which is central to the model.

State dependent optimization of measurement policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konkarikoski, K.

2010-07-01

Measurements are the key to rational decision making. Measurement information generates value, when it is applied in the decision making. An investment cost and maintenance costs are associated with each component of the measurement system. Clearly, there is - under a given set of scenarios - a measurement setup that is optimal in expected (discounted) utility. This paper deals how the measurement policy optimization is affected by different system states and how this problem can be tackled.

Playing Games and Making Decisions with Complex State Spaces, Resource-Bounded Agents, and Unforeseen Contingencies

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-20

t) = ∑ ~a∈A(σ1(t1)(a1) × . . . × σm(tm)(am))ui(~t,~a). Player i’s expected utility if ~σ is played, denoted Ui(~σ), is then just EPr [u ~σ i ] = ∑ ~t∈T...well-known Traveler’s Dilemma (K. Basu, The traveler’s dilemma: paradoxes of rationality in game theory, American Economic Review 84:2, 1994, pp. 391

United States Military Retirement Migration: Patterns and Processes.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-03-27

active duty force e) Number of heating degree days tA 23 f) Number of physicians per 1000 population g) Recreation acres per 1000 population h...Eva Mueller. 1967. The Geographic Mobility of Labor. Ann Arbor : University of Michigan. Institute for Social Research, Survey Research Center. Law, C.M... Chicken or Egg?. Southern Economic Journal. 37:295-306. Muth, J.F. 1961. Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements. Econometrics. 29:315

Noisy probability judgment, the conjunction fallacy, and rationality: Comment on Costello and Watts (2014).

PubMed

Crupi, Vincenzo; Tentori, Katya

2016-01-01

According to Costello and Watts (2014), probability theory can account for key findings in human judgment research provided that random noise is embedded in the model. We concur with a number of Costello and Watts's remarks, but challenge the empirical adequacy of their model in one of their key illustrations (the conjunction fallacy) on the basis of recent experimental findings. We also discuss how our argument bears on heuristic and rational thinking. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Who to Blame: Irrational Decision-Makers or Stupid Modelers? (Arne Richter Award for Outstanding Young Scientists Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madani, Kaveh

2016-04-01

Water management benefits from a suite of modelling tools and techniques that help simplifying and understanding the complexities involved in managing water resource systems. Early water management models were mainly concerned with optimizing a single objective, related to the design, operations or management of water resource systems (e.g. economic cost, hydroelectricity production, reliability of water deliveries). Significant improvements in methodologies, computational capacity, and data availability over the last decades have resulted in developing more complex water management models that can now incorporate multiple objectives, various uncertainties, and big data. These models provide an improved understanding of complex water resource systems and provide opportunities for making positive impacts. Nevertheless, there remains an alarming mismatch between the optimal solutions developed by these models and the decisions made by managers and stakeholders of water resource systems. Modelers continue to consider decision makers as irrational agents who fail to implement the optimal solutions developed by sophisticated and mathematically rigours water management models. On the other hand, decision makers and stakeholders accuse modelers of being idealist, lacking a perfect understanding of reality, and developing 'smart' solutions that are not practical (stable). In this talk I will have a closer look at the mismatch between the optimality and stability of solutions and argue that conventional water resources management models suffer inherently from a full-cooperation assumption. According to this assumption, water resources management decisions are based on group rationality where in practice decisions are often based on individual rationality, making the group's optimal solution unstable for individually rational decision makers. I discuss how game theory can be used as an appropriate framework for addressing the irrational "rationality assumption" of water resources management models and for better capturing the social aspects of decision making in water management systems with multiple stakeholders.

Do framing effects reveal irrational choice?

PubMed

Mandel, David R

2014-06-01

Framing effects have long been viewed as compelling evidence of irrationality in human decision making, yet that view rests on the questionable assumption that numeric quantifiers used to convey the expected values of choice options are uniformly interpreted as exact values. Two experiments show that when the exactness of such quantifiers is made explicit by the experimenter, framing effects vanish. However, when the same quantifiers are given a lower bound (at least) meaning, the typical framing effect is found. A 3rd experiment confirmed that most people spontaneously interpret the quantifiers in standard framing tests as lower bounded and that their interpretations strongly moderate the framing effect. Notably, in each experiment, a significant majority of participants made rational choices, either choosing the option that maximized expected value (i.e., lives saved) or choosing consistently across frames when the options were of equal expected value. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Centenarians and supercentenarians: a black swan. Emerging social, medical and surgical problems.

PubMed

Vacante, Marco; D'Agata, Velia; Motta, Massimo; Malaguarnera, Giulia; Biondi, Antonio; Basile, Francesco; Malaguarnera, Michele; Gagliano, Caterina; Drago, Filippo; Salamone, Salvatore

2012-01-01

The Black Swan Theory was described by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book "The Black Swan". This theory refers to "high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events beyond the realm of normal expectations". According to Taleb's criteria, a Black Swan Event is a surprise, it has a major impact and after the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight, as if it had been expected. For most of human history centenarians were a rare and unpredictable phenomenon. The improvements of the social-environmental conditions, of medical care, and the quality of life caused a general improvement of the health status of the population and a consequent reduction of the overall morbidity and mortality, resulting in an overall increase of life expectancy. The study of centenarians and supercentenarians had the objective to consider this black swan and to evaluate the health, welfare, social and economic consequences of this phenomenon.

Structure-activity relationships for serotonin transporter and dopamine receptor selectivity.

PubMed

Agatonovic-Kustrin, Snezana; Davies, Paul; Turner, Joseph V

2009-05-01

Antipsychotic medications have a diverse pharmacology with affinity for serotonergic, dopaminergic, adrenergic, histaminergic and cholinergic receptors. Their clinical use now also includes the treatment of mood disorders, thought to be mediated by serotonergic receptor activity. The aim of our study was to characterise the molecular properties of antipsychotic agents, and to develop a model that would indicate molecular specificity for the dopamine (D(2)) receptor and the serotonin (5-HT) transporter. Back-propagation artificial neural networks (ANNs) were trained on a dataset of 47 ligands categorically assigned antidepressant or antipsychotic utility. The structure of each compound was encoded with 63 calculated molecular descriptors. ANN parameters including hidden neurons and input descriptors were optimised based on sensitivity analyses, with optimum models containing between four and 14 descriptors. Predicted binding preferences were in excellent agreement with clinical antipsychotic or antidepressant utility. Validated models were further tested by use of an external prediction set of five drugs with unknown mechanism of action. The SAR models developed revealed the importance of simple molecular characteristics for differential binding to the D(2) receptor and the 5-HT transporter. These included molecular size and shape, solubility parameters, hydrogen donating potential, electrostatic parameters, stereochemistry and presence of nitrogen. The developed models and techniques employed are expected to be useful in the rational design of future therapeutic agents.

Discrete rational and breather solution in the spatial discrete complex modified Korteweg-de Vries equation and continuous counterparts.

PubMed

Zhao, Hai-Qiong; Yu, Guo-Fu

2017-04-01

In this paper, a spatial discrete complex modified Korteweg-de Vries equation is investigated. The Lax pair, conservation laws, Darboux transformations, and breather and rational wave solutions to the semi-discrete system are presented. The distinguished feature of the model is that the discrete rational solution can possess new W-shape rational periodic-solitary waves that were not reported before. In addition, the first-order rogue waves reach peak amplitudes which are at least three times of the background amplitude, whereas their continuous counterparts are exactly three times the constant background. Finally, the integrability of the discrete system, including Lax pair, conservation laws, Darboux transformations, and explicit solutions, yields the counterparts of the continuous system in the continuum limit.

Rational and mechanistic perspectives on reinforcement learning.

PubMed

Chater, Nick

2009-12-01

This special issue describes important recent developments in applying reinforcement learning models to capture neural and cognitive function. But reinforcement learning, as a theoretical framework, can apply at two very different levels of description: mechanistic and rational. Reinforcement learning is often viewed in mechanistic terms--as describing the operation of aspects of an agent's cognitive and neural machinery. Yet it can also be viewed as a rational level of description, specifically, as describing a class of methods for learning from experience, using minimal background knowledge. This paper considers how rational and mechanistic perspectives differ, and what types of evidence distinguish between them. Reinforcement learning research in the cognitive and brain sciences is often implicitly committed to the mechanistic interpretation. Here the opposite view is put forward: that accounts of reinforcement learning should apply at the rational level, unless there is strong evidence for a mechanistic interpretation. Implications of this viewpoint for reinforcement-based theories in the cognitive and brain sciences are discussed.

On the quantum symmetry of the chiral Ising model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vecsernyés, Peter

1994-03-01

We introduce the notion of rational Hopf algebras that we think are able to describe the superselection symmetries of rational quantum field theories. As an example we show that a six-dimensional rational Hopf algebra H can reproduce the fusion rules, the conformal weights, the quantum dimensions and the representation of the modular group of the chiral Ising model. H plays the role of the global symmetry algebra of the chiral Ising model in the following sense: (1) a simple field algebra F and a representation π on Hπ of it is given, which contains the c = {1}/{2} unitary representations of the Virasoro algebra as subrepresentations; (2) the embedding U: H → B( Hπ) is such that the observable algebra π( A) - is the invariant subalgebra of B( Hπ) with respect to the left adjoint action of H and U(H) is the commutant of π( A); (3) there exist H-covariant primary fields in B( Hπ), which obey generalized Cuntz algebra properties and intertwine between the inequivalent sectors of the observables.

The design of patient decision support interventions: addressing the theory-practice gap.

PubMed

Elwyn, Glyn; Stiel, Mareike; Durand, Marie-Anne; Boivin, Jacky

2011-08-01

Although an increasing number of decision support interventions for patients (including decision aids) are produced, few make explicit use of theory. We argue the importance of using theory to guide design. The aim of this work was to address this theory-practice gap and to examine how a range of selected decision-making theories could inform the design and evaluation of decision support interventions. We reviewed the decision-making literature and selected relevant theories. We assessed their key principles, theoretical pathways and predictions in order to determine how they could inform the design of two core components of decision support interventions, namely, information and deliberation components and to specify theory-based outcome measures. Eight theories were selected: (1) the expected utility theory; (2) the conflict model of decision making; (3) prospect theory; (4) fuzzy-trace theory; (5) the differentiation and consolidation theory; (6) the ecological rationality theory; (7) the rational-emotional model of decision avoidance; and finally, (8) the Attend, React, Explain, Adapt model of affective forecasting. Some theories have strong relevance to the information design (e.g. prospect theory); some are more relevant to deliberation processes (conflict theory, differentiation theory and ecological validity). None of the theories in isolation was sufficient to inform the design of all the necessary components of decision support interventions. It was also clear that most work in theory-building has focused on explaining or describing how humans think rather than on how tools could be designed to help humans make good decisions. It is not surprising therefore that a large theory-practice gap exists as we consider decision support for patients. There was no relevant theory that integrated all the necessary contributions to the task of making good decisions in collaborative interactions. Initiatives such as the International Patient Decision Aids Standards Collaboration influence standards for the design of decision support interventions. However, this analysis points to the need to undertake more work in providing theoretical foundations for these interventions. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

SEXUAL SELECTION. Irrationality in mate choice revealed by túngara frogs.

PubMed

Lea, Amanda M; Ryan, Michael J

2015-08-28

Mate choice models derive from traditional microeconomic decision theory and assume that individuals maximize their Darwinian fitness by making economically rational decisions. Rational choices exhibit regularity, whereby the relative strength of preferences between options remains stable when additional options are presented. We tested female frogs with three simulated males who differed in relative call attractiveness and call rate. In binary choice tests, females' preferences favored stimulus caller B over caller A; however, with the addition of an inferior "decoy" C, females reversed their preferences and chose A over B. These results show that the relative valuation of mates is not independent of inferior alternatives in the choice set and therefore cannot be explained with the rational choice models currently used in sexual selection theory. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Rational function representation of flap noise spectra including correction for reflection effects. [acoustic properties of engine exhaust jets deflected for externally blown flaps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miles, J. H.

1974-01-01

A rational function is presented for the acoustic spectra generated by deflection of engine exhaust jets for under-the-wing and over-the-wing versions of externally blown flaps. The functional representation is intended to provide a means for compact storage of data and for data analysis. The expressions are based on Fourier transform functions for the Strouhal normalized pressure spectral density, and on a correction for reflection effects based on the N-independent-source model of P. Thomas extended by use of a reflected ray transfer function. Curve fit comparisons are presented for blown flap data taken from turbofan engine tests and from large scale cold-flow model tests. Application of the rational function to scrubbing noise theory is also indicated.

The relationship of California's Medicaid reimbursement system to nurse staffing levels.

PubMed

Mukamel, Dana B; Kang, Taewoon; Collier, Eric; Harrington, Charlene

2012-10-01

Policy initiatives at the Federal and state level are aimed at increasing staffing in nursing homes. These include direct staffing standards, public reporting, and financial incentives. To examine the impact of California's Medicaid reimbursement for nursing homes which includes incentives directed at staffing. Two-stage limited-information maximum-likelihood regressions were used to model the relationship between staffing [registered nurses (RNs), licensed practical nurses, and certified nursing assistants hours per resident day] and the Medicaid payment rate, accounting for the specific structure of the payment system, endogeneity of payment and case-mix, and controlling for facility and market characteristics. A total of 927 California free-standing nursing homes in 2006. The model included facility characteristics (case-mix, size, ownership, and chain affiliation), market competition and excess demand, labor supply and wages, unemployment, and female employment. The instrumental variable for Medicaid reimbursement was the peer group payment rate for 7 geographical market areas, and the instrumental variables for resident case-mix were the average county revenues for professional therapy establishments and the percent of county population aged 65 and over. Consistent with the rate incentives and rational expectation behavior, expected nursing home reimbursement rates in 2008 were associated with increased RN staffing levels in 2006 but had no relationship with licensed practical nurse and certified nursing assistant staffing. The effect was estimated at 2 minutes per $10 increase in rate. The incentives in the Medicaid system impacted only RN staffing suggesting the need to improve the state's rate setting methodology.

Stock market speculation: Spontaneous symmetry breaking of economic valuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sornette, Didier

2000-09-01

Firm foundation theory estimates a security's firm fundamental value based on four determinants: expected growth rate, expected dividend payout, the market interest rate and the degree of risk. In contrast, other views of decision-making in the stock market, using alternatives such as human psychology and behavior, bounded rationality, agent-based modeling and evolutionary game theory, expound that speculative and crowd behavior of investors may play a major role in shaping market prices. Here, we propose that the two views refer to two classes of companies connected through a "phase transition". Our theory is based on (1) the identification of the fundamental parity symmetry of prices (p→-p), which results from the relative direction of payment flux compared to commodity flux and (2) the observation that a company's risk-adjusted growth rate discounted by the market interest rate behaves as a control parameter for the observable price. We find a critical value of this control parameter at which a spontaneous symmetry-breaking of prices occurs, leading to a spontaneous valuation in absence of earnings, similarly to the emergence of a spontaneous magnetization in Ising models in absence of a magnetic field. The low growth rate phase is described by the firm foundation theory while the large growth rate phase is the regime of speculation and crowd behavior. In practice, while large "finite-time horizon" effects round off the predicted singularities, our symmetry-breaking speculation theory accounts for the apparent over-pricing and the high volatility of fast growing companies on the stock markets.

Is There a Conjunction Fallacy in Legal Probabilistic Decision Making?

PubMed

Wojciechowski, Bartosz W; Pothos, Emmanuel M

2018-01-01

Classical probability theory (CPT) has represented the rational standard for decision making in human cognition. Even though CPT has provided many descriptively excellent decision models, there have also been some empirical results persistently problematic for CPT accounts. The tension between the normative prescription of CPT and human behavior is particularly acute in cases where we have higher expectations for rational decisions. One such case concerns legal decision making from legal experts, such as attorneys and prosecutors and, more so, judges. In the present research we explore one of the most influential CPT decision fallacies, the conjunction fallacy (CF), in a legal decision making task, involving assessing evidence that the same suspect had committed two separate crimes. The information for the two crimes was presented consecutively. Each participant was asked to provide individual ratings for the two crimes in some cases and conjunctive probability rating for both crimes in other cases, after all information had been presented. Overall, 360 probability ratings for guilt were collected from 120 participants, comprised of 40 judges, 40 attorneys and prosecutors, and 40 individuals without legal education. Our results provide evidence for a double conjunction fallacy (in this case, a higher probability of committing both crimes than the probability of committing either crime individually), in the group of individuals without legal education. These results are discussed in terms of their applied implications and in relation to a recent framework for understanding such results, quantum probability theory (QPT).

Is There a Conjunction Fallacy in Legal Probabilistic Decision Making?

PubMed Central

Wojciechowski, Bartosz W.; Pothos, Emmanuel M.

2018-01-01

Classical probability theory (CPT) has represented the rational standard for decision making in human cognition. Even though CPT has provided many descriptively excellent decision models, there have also been some empirical results persistently problematic for CPT accounts. The tension between the normative prescription of CPT and human behavior is particularly acute in cases where we have higher expectations for rational decisions. One such case concerns legal decision making from legal experts, such as attorneys and prosecutors and, more so, judges. In the present research we explore one of the most influential CPT decision fallacies, the conjunction fallacy (CF), in a legal decision making task, involving assessing evidence that the same suspect had committed two separate crimes. The information for the two crimes was presented consecutively. Each participant was asked to provide individual ratings for the two crimes in some cases and conjunctive probability rating for both crimes in other cases, after all information had been presented. Overall, 360 probability ratings for guilt were collected from 120 participants, comprised of 40 judges, 40 attorneys and prosecutors, and 40 individuals without legal education. Our results provide evidence for a double conjunction fallacy (in this case, a higher probability of committing both crimes than the probability of committing either crime individually), in the group of individuals without legal education. These results are discussed in terms of their applied implications and in relation to a recent framework for understanding such results, quantum probability theory (QPT). PMID:29674983

Linking patient satisfaction with nursing care: the case of care rationing - a correlational study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Implicit rationing of nursing care is the withholding of or failure to carry out all necessary nursing measures due to lack of resources. There is evidence supporting a link between rationing of nursing care, nurses’ perceptions of their professional environment, negative patient outcomes, and placing patient safety at risk. The aims of the study were: a) To explore whether patient satisfaction is linked to nurse-reported rationing of nursing care and to nurses’ perceptions of their practice environment while adjusting for patient and nurse characteristics. b) To identify the threshold score of rationing by comparing the level of patient satisfaction factors across rationing levels. Methods A descriptive, correlational design was employed. Participants in this study included 352 patients and 318 nurses from ten medical and surgical units of five general hospitals. Three measurement instruments were used: the BERNCA scale for rationing of care, the RPPE scale to explore nurses’ perceptions of their work environment and the Patient Satisfaction scale to assess the level of patient satisfaction with nursing care. The statistical analysis included the use of Kendall’s correlation coefficient to explore a possible relationship between the variables and multiple regression analysis to assess the effects of implicit rationing of nursing care together with organizational characteristics on patient satisfaction. Results The mean score of implicit rationing of nursing care was 0.83 (SD = 0.52, range = 0–3), the overall mean of RPPE was 2.76 (SD = 0.32, range = 1.28 – 3.69) and the two scales were significantly correlated (τ = −0.234, p < 0.001). The regression analysis showed that care rationing and work environment were related to patient satisfaction, even after controlling for nurse and patient characteristics. The results from the adjusted regression models showed that even at the lowest level of rationing (i.e. 0.5) patients indicated low satisfaction. Conclusions The results support the relationships between organizational and environmental variables, care rationing and patient satisfaction. The identification of thresholds at which rationing starts to influence patient outcomes in a negative way may allow nurse managers to introduce interventions so as to keep rationing at a level at which patient safety is not jeopardized. PMID:25285040

Rich Analysis and Rational Models: Inferring Individual Behavior from Infant Looking Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Piantadosi, Steven T.; Kidd, Celeste; Aslin, Richard

2014-01-01

Studies of infant looking times over the past 50 years have provided profound insights about cognitive development, but their dependent measures and analytic techniques are quite limited. In the context of infants' attention to discrete sequential events, we show how a Bayesian data analysis approach can be combined with a rational cognitive…

Expressive Thought and Non-Rational Inquiry.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newton, Richard F.

A significant problem with inquiry teaching is that too much emphasis is placed on inquiry as a logical, scientific, and rational way of knowing. Feelings and mood are rarely dealt with except in rather off-handed remarks about intuitive leaps and creative encounters. Few consider what a model of inquiry based on mood and feeling might look like.…

Are Retrenchment Decisions Rational? The Role of Information in Times of Budgetary Stress.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ashar, Hanna; Shapiro, Jonathan Z.

1990-01-01

Analysis of the relationship between performance data and changes in faculty size of 40 departments in a College of Arts and Sciences during a time of financial stress found that the rational choice model was applied to decision making. There was a systematic relationship between objective, evaluative data and policy decisions. (MLW)

Knowledge Utilization Strategies in the Design and Implementation of New Schools--Symbolic Functions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sieber, Sam D.

An examination of case studies suggests that rational processes were not entirely at work in the planning and conception of new, innovative schools. The rational model that serves as the foundation of our information systems assumes that a compelling professional need triggers a search for solutions; and, therefore, school personnel are eager to…

Scalar utility theory and proportional processing: what does it actually imply?

PubMed Central

Rosenström, Tom; Wiesner, Karoline; Houston, Alasdair I

2017-01-01

Scalar Utility Theory (SUT) is a model used to predict animal and human choice behaviour in the context of reward amount, delay to reward, and variability in these quantities (risk preferences). This article reviews and extends SUT, deriving novel predictions. We show that, contrary to what has been implied in the literature, (1) SUT can predict both risk averse and risk prone behaviour for both reward amounts and delays to reward depending on experimental parameters, (2) SUT implies violations of several concepts of rational behaviour (e.g. it violates strong stochastic transitivity and its equivalents, and leads to probability matching) and (3) SUT can predict, but does not always predict, a linear relationship between risk sensitivity in choices and coefficient of variation in the decision-making experiment. SUT derives from Scalar Expectancy Theory which models uncertainty in behavioural timing using a normal distribution. We show that the above conclusions also hold for other distributions, such as the inverse Gaussian distribution derived from drift-diffusion models. A straightforward way to test the key assumptions of SUT is suggested and possible extensions, future prospects and mechanistic underpinnings are discussed. PMID:27288541

An evolutionary model of cooperation, fairness and altruistic punishment in public good games.

PubMed

Hetzer, Moritz; Sornette, Didier

2013-01-01

We identify and explain the mechanisms that account for the emergence of fairness preferences and altruistic punishment in voluntary contribution mechanisms by combining an evolutionary perspective together with an expected utility model. We aim at filling a gap between the literature on the theory of evolution applied to cooperation and punishment, and the empirical findings from experimental economics. The approach is motivated by previous findings on other-regarding behavior, the co-evolution of culture, genes and social norms, as well as bounded rationality. Our first result reveals the emergence of two distinct evolutionary regimes that force agents to converge either to a defection state or to a state of coordination, depending on the predominant set of self- or other-regarding preferences. Our second result indicates that subjects in laboratory experiments of public goods games with punishment coordinate and punish defectors as a result of an aversion against disadvantageous inequitable outcomes. Our third finding identifies disadvantageous inequity aversion as evolutionary dominant and stable in a heterogeneous population of agents endowed initially only with purely self-regarding preferences. We validate our model using previously obtained results from three independently conducted experiments of public goods games with punishment.

An Evolutionary Model of Cooperation, Fairness and Altruistic Punishment in Public Good Games

PubMed Central

Hetzer, Moritz; Sornette, Didier

2013-01-01

We identify and explain the mechanisms that account for the emergence of fairness preferences and altruistic punishment in voluntary contribution mechanisms by combining an evolutionary perspective together with an expected utility model. We aim at filling a gap between the literature on the theory of evolution applied to cooperation and punishment, and the empirical findings from experimental economics. The approach is motivated by previous findings on other-regarding behavior, the co-evolution of culture, genes and social norms, as well as bounded rationality. Our first result reveals the emergence of two distinct evolutionary regimes that force agents to converge either to a defection state or to a state of coordination, depending on the predominant set of self- or other-regarding preferences. Our second result indicates that subjects in laboratory experiments of public goods games with punishment coordinate and punish defectors as a result of an aversion against disadvantageous inequitable outcomes. Our third finding identifies disadvantageous inequity aversion as evolutionary dominant and stable in a heterogeneous population of agents endowed initially only with purely self-regarding preferences. We validate our model using previously obtained results from three independently conducted experiments of public goods games with punishment. PMID:24260101

Scalar utility theory and proportional processing: What does it actually imply?

PubMed

Rosenström, Tom; Wiesner, Karoline; Houston, Alasdair I

2016-09-07

Scalar Utility Theory (SUT) is a model used to predict animal and human choice behaviour in the context of reward amount, delay to reward, and variability in these quantities (risk preferences). This article reviews and extends SUT, deriving novel predictions. We show that, contrary to what has been implied in the literature, (1) SUT can predict both risk averse and risk prone behaviour for both reward amounts and delays to reward depending on experimental parameters, (2) SUT implies violations of several concepts of rational behaviour (e.g. it violates strong stochastic transitivity and its equivalents, and leads to probability matching) and (3) SUT can predict, but does not always predict, a linear relationship between risk sensitivity in choices and coefficient of variation in the decision-making experiment. SUT derives from Scalar Expectancy Theory which models uncertainty in behavioural timing using a normal distribution. We show that the above conclusions also hold for other distributions, such as the inverse Gaussian distribution derived from drift-diffusion models. A straightforward way to test the key assumptions of SUT is suggested and possible extensions, future prospects and mechanistic underpinnings are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enantioselectivity in CPA-catalyzed Friedel-Crafts reaction of indole and N-tosylimines: a challenge for guiding models.

PubMed

Simón, Luis

2018-03-28

Qualitative reaction models or predicting guides are a very useful outcome of theoretical investigations of organocatalytic reaction mechanism that allow forecasting of the degree and sense of the enantioselectivity of reactions involving novel substrates. However, application of these models can be unexpectedly challenging in reactions affected by a large number of conformations and potential control of the enantioselectivity by different reaction steps. The QM/MM study of the Friedel-Crafts reaction between indole and the N-tosylimide of benzaldehyde catalysed by different CPA reveals that the reaction consists of two CPA-assisted steps: the addition of the two reagents to yield a Wheland intermediate, and its re-aromatization. The relevance of the second step depends on the catalyst: it changes the sense of the expected stereoselectivity for a BINOP-derived CPA but is irrelevant in the reaction catalysed by a VAPOL-derived imidodiphosphoric acid catalyst. Although the relative energies of the TSs can be rationalized considering the steric interactions with the catalyst, the possibility of additional H-bonds, or the relative stability of the conformation of the reagents, predicting the enantioselectivity is not possible using qualitative guides.

G Protein-Coupled Estrogen Receptor (GPER) Agonist Dual Binding Mode Analyses toward Understanding of its Activation Mechanism: A Comparative Homology Modeling Approach.

PubMed

Arnatt, Christopher K; Zhang, Yan

2013-07-01

G protein-coupled estrogen receptor (GPER) has been shown to be important in several disease states such as estrogen sensitive cancers. While several selective ligands have been identified for the receptor, little is known about how they interact with GPER and how their structures influence their activity. Specifically, within one series of ligands, whose structure varied only at one position, the replacement of a hydrogen atom with an acetyl group changed a potent antagonist into a potent agonist. In this study, two GPER homology models were constructed based on the x-ray crystal structures of both the active and inactive β 2 -adrenergic receptors (β 2 AR) in an effort to characterize the differences of binding modes between agonists and antagonists to the receptor, and to understand their activity in relation to their structures. The knowledge attained in this study is expected to provide valuable information on GPER ligands structure activity relationship to benefit future rational design of potent agonists and antagonists of the receptor for potential therapeutic applications.

G Protein-Coupled Estrogen Receptor (GPER) Agonist Dual Binding Mode Analyses toward Understanding of its Activation Mechanism: A Comparative Homology Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Arnatt, Christopher K.; Zhang, Yan

2015-01-01

G protein-coupled estrogen receptor (GPER) has been shown to be important in several disease states such as estrogen sensitive cancers. While several selective ligands have been identified for the receptor, little is known about how they interact with GPER and how their structures influence their activity. Specifically, within one series of ligands, whose structure varied only at one position, the replacement of a hydrogen atom with an acetyl group changed a potent antagonist into a potent agonist. In this study, two GPER homology models were constructed based on the x-ray crystal structures of both the active and inactive β2-adrenergic receptors (β2AR) in an effort to characterize the differences of binding modes between agonists and antagonists to the receptor, and to understand their activity in relation to their structures. The knowledge attained in this study is expected to provide valuable information on GPER ligands structure activity relationship to benefit future rational design of potent agonists and antagonists of the receptor for potential therapeutic applications. PMID:26229572

Shared decision making, paternalism and patient choice.

PubMed

Sandman, Lars; Munthe, Christian

2010-03-01

In patient centred care, shared decision making is a central feature and widely referred to as a norm for patient centred medical consultation. However, it is far from clear how to distinguish SDM from standard models and ideals for medical decision making, such as paternalism and patient choice, and e.g., whether paternalism and patient choice can involve a greater degree of the sort of sharing involved in SDM and still retain their essential features. In the article, different versions of SDM are explored, versions compatible with paternalism and patient choice as well as versions that go beyond these traditional decision making models. Whenever SDM is discussed or introduced it is of importance to be clear over which of these different versions are being pursued, since they connect to basic values and ideals of health care in different ways. It is further argued that we have reason to pursue versions of SDM involving, what is called, a high level dynamics in medical decision-making. This leaves four alternative models to choose between depending on how we balance between the values of patient best interest, patient autonomy, and an effective decision in terms of patient compliance or adherence: Shared Rational Deliberative Patient Choice, Shared Rational Deliberative Paternalism, Shared Rational Deliberative Joint Decision, and Professionally Driven Best Interest Compromise. In relation to these models it is argued that we ideally should use the Shared Rational Deliberative Joint Decision model. However, when the patient and professional fail to reach consensus we will have reason to pursue the Professionally Driven Best Interest Compromise model since this will best harmonise between the different values at stake: patient best interest, patient autonomy, patient adherence and a continued care relationship.