High-Resolution Regional Reanalysis in China: Evaluation of 1 Year Period Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qi; Pan, Yinong; Wang, Shuyu; Xu, Jianjun; Tang, Jianping

2017-10-01

Globally, reanalysis data sets are widely used in assessing climate change, validating numerical models, and understanding the interactions between the components of a climate system. However, due to the relatively coarse resolution, most global reanalysis data sets are not suitable to apply at the local and regional scales directly with the inadequate descriptions of mesoscale systems and climatic extreme incidents such as mesoscale convective systems, squall lines, tropical cyclones, regional droughts, and heat waves. In this study, by using a data assimilation system of Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation, and a mesoscale atmospheric model of Weather Research and Forecast model, we build a regional reanalysis system. This is preliminary and the first experimental attempt to construct a high-resolution reanalysis for China main land. Four regional test bed data sets are generated for year 2013 via three widely used methods (classical dynamical downscaling, spectral nudging, and data assimilation) and a hybrid method with data assimilation coupled with spectral nudging. Temperature at 2 m, precipitation, and upper level atmospheric variables are evaluated by comparing against observations for one-year-long tests. It can be concluded that the regional reanalysis with assimilation and nudging methods can better produce the atmospheric variables from surface to upper levels, and regional extreme events such as heat waves, than the classical dynamical downscaling. Compared to the ERA-Interim global reanalysis, the hybrid nudging method performs slightly better in reproducing upper level temperature and low-level moisture over China, which improves regional reanalysis data quality.

Understanding and Reconciling Differences in Surface and Satellite-Based Lower Troposphere Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hausfather, Z.; Thorne, P.; Mears, C. A.

2017-12-01

One of the main remaining uncertainties in global temperatures over the past few decades is the disagreement between surface and microwave sounding unit (MSU) satellite-based observations of the lower troposphere. Reconciling these will prove an important step in improving our understanding of modern climate change, and help resolve an issue that has been frequently brought to the attention of policymakers and highlighted as a reason to distrust climate observations. To assess differences between surface and satellite records, we examine data from radiosondes, from atmospheric reanalysis, from numerous different satellites, from surface observations over the land and ocean, and from global climate models. Controlling for spatial coverage, we determine where these datasets agree and disagree, isolate the differences, and identify for common factors to explain the divergences. We find large systemic differences between surface and lower troposphere warming in MSU/AMSU records compared to radiosondes, reanalysis products, and climate models that suggest possible residual inhomogeneities in satellite records. We further show that no reasonable subset of surface temperature records exhibits as little warming over the last two decades as satellite observations, suggesting that inhomogeneities in the surface record are very likely not responsible for the divergence.

Structure of analysis-minus-observation misfits within a global ocean reanalysis system: implications for atmospheric reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carton, James; Chepurin, Gennady

2017-04-01

While atmospheric reanalyses do not ingest data from the subsurface ocean they must produce fluxes consistent with, for example, ocean storage and divergence of heat transport. Here we present a test of the consistency of two different atmospheric reanalyses with 2.5 million global ocean temperature observations during the data-rich eight year period 2007-2014. The examination is carried out by using atmospheric reanalysis variables to drive the SODA3 ocean reanalysis system, and then collecting and analyzing the temperature analysis increments (observation misfits). For the widely used MERRA2 and ERA-Int atmospheric reanalyses the temperature analysis increments reveal inconsistencies between those atmospheric fluxes and the ocean observations in the range of 10-30 W/m2. In the interior basins excess heat during a single assimilation cycle is stored primarily locally within the mixed layer, a simplification of the heat budget that allows us to identify the source of the error as the specified net surface heat flux. Along the equator the increments are primarily confined to thermocline depths indicating the primary source of the error is dominated by heat transport divergence. The error in equatorial heat transport divergence, in turn, can be traced to errors in the strength of the equatorial trade winds. We test our conclusions by introducing modifications of the atmospheric reanalyses based on analysis of ocean temperature analysis increments and repeating the ocean reanalysis experiments using the modified surface fluxes. Comparison of the experiments reveals that the modified fluxes reduce the misfit to ocean observations as well as the differences between the different atmospheric reanalyses.

Evaluation of land-surface interaction in ECMWF and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis models over grassland (FIFE) and boreal forest (BOREAS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, Alan K.; Viterbo, Pedro; Beljaars, Anton; Pan, Hua-Lu; Hong, Song-You; Goulden, Mike; Wofsy, Steve

1998-09-01

The National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis models are compared with First ISLSCP (International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project) Field Experiment (FIFE) grassland data from Kansas in 1987 and Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) data from an old black spruce site in 1996 near Thompson, Manitoba. Some aspects of the comparison are similar for the two ecosystems. Over grassland and after snowmelt in the boreal forest, both models represent the seasonal cycle of near-surface temperature well. The two models have quite different soil hydrology components. The ECMWF model includes soil water nudging based on low level humidity errors. While this works quite well for the FIFE grassland, it appears to give too high evaporation over the boreal forest. The NCEP/NCAR model constrains long-term drifts by nudging deep soil water toward climatology. Over the FIFE site, this seems to give too low evaporation in midsummer, while at the BOREAS site, evaporation in this model is high. Both models have some difficulty representing the surface diurnal cycle of humidity. In the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis this leads to errors primarily in June, when the surface boundary layer stays saturated and too much precipitation occurs. In the ECMWF reanalysis there is a morning peak of mixing ratio, which an earlier work showed resulted from too shallow a boundary layer in the morning. Over the northern boreal forest there are important physical processes, which are not represented in either reanalysis model. In particular very high model albedos in spring, when there is snow under the forest canopy, lead to a very low daytime net radiation. This in turn leads to a large underestimate of the daytime surface fluxes, particularly the sensible heat flux, and to daytime model surface temperatures that are as much as 15 K low. In addition, the models do not account for the reduction in evaporation associated with frozen soil, and they generally have too large evapotranspiration in June and July, probably because they do not model the tight stomatal control of the coniferous forest.

The influence of surface versus free-air decoupling on temperature trend patterns in the western United States

Treesearch

N.C. Pepin; C. Daly; J. Lundquist

2011-01-01

We analyzed temperature trends from 460 GHCNv2 weather stations in the western United States for 1948¨C2006 to determine whether the extent of decoupling of surface temperatures from the free atmosphere influences past change. At each location we derived monthly indices representative of anticyclonicity using NCEP/NCAR 700 hPa reanalysis pressure fields. The number of...

Toward a 35-years North American Precipitation and Surface Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasset, N.; Fortin, V.

2017-12-01

In support of the International Watersheds Initiative (IWI) of the International Joint Commission (IJC), a 35-years precipitation and surface reanalysis covering North America at a 3-hours and 15-km resolution is currently being developed at the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC). A deterministic reforecast / dynamical downscaling approach is followed where a global reanalysis (ERA-Interim) is used as initial condition of the Global Environmental Multi-scale model (GEM). Moreover, the latter is coupled with precipitation and surface data assimilation systems, i.e. the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) and the Canadian Land Data Assimilation System (CaLDAS). While optimized to be more computationally efficient in the context of a reforecast experiment, all systems used are closely related to model versions and configurations currently run operationally at CMC, meaning they have undergone a strict and thorough validation procedure.As a proof of concept and in order to identify the optimal set-up before achieving the 35-years reanalysis, several configurations of the approach are evaluated for the years 2010-2014 using both standard CMC validation methodology as well as more dedicated scores such as comparison against the currently available products (North American Regional Reanalysis, MERRA-Land and the newly released ERA5 reanalysis). A special attention is dedicated to the evaluation of analysed variables, i.e. precipitation, snow depth, surface/ground temperature and moisture over the whole domain of interest. Results from these preliminary samples are very encouraging and the optimal set-up is identified. The coupled approach, i.e. GEM+CaPA/CaLDAS, always shows clear improvements over classical reforecast and dynamical downscaling where surface observations are present. Furthermore, results are inline or better than currently available products and the reference CMC operational approach that was operated from 2012 to 2016 (GEM 3.3, 10-km resolution). This reanalysis will allow for bias correction of current estimates and forecasts, and help decision maker understand and communicate by how much the current forecasted state of the system differs from the recent past.

Comparison of Surface Mountain Climate With Equivalent Free Air Parameters Extracted From NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis: Kilimanjaro, Tanzania.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pepin, N. C.; Hardy, D.; Duane, W.; Losleben, M.

2007-12-01

It is difficult to predict future climate changes in areas of complex relief, since mountains generate their own climates distinct from the free atmosphere. Thus trends in climate at the mountain surface are different from those in the free air. We compare surface climate (temperature and vapour pressure) measured at seven elevations on the south-western slope of Kilimanjaro, the tallest free standing mountain in Africa, with equivalent observations in the free atmosphere from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for September 2004 to January 2006. Correlations between daily surface and free air temperature anomalies are greatest at low elevations below 2500 metres, meaning that synoptic (inter-diurnal) variability is the major control here. However, temperatures and moisture on the higher slopes above the treeline (3000 m) are decoupled from the free atmosphere, showing intense heating/cooling by day/night and import of moisture from lower elevations during the day. The lower forested slopes thus act as a moisture source, with large vapour pressure excesses reported in comparison with the free atmosphere (>5 hPa) which move upslope during daylight and subside downslope at night. Strong seasonal contrasts are shown in the vigour of the montane thermal circulation, but interactions with free air circulation (as represented by flow indices developed from reanalysis wind components) are complex. Upper air flow strength and direction (at 500 mb) have limited influence on surface heating and upslope moisture advection, which are dominated by the diurnal cycle rather than inter-diurnal synoptic controls. Thus local changes in surface characteristics (e.g. deforestation) could have a direct influence on the mountain climate of Kilimanjaro, making the upper slopes somewhat divorced from larger scale advective changes associated with global warming.

Development and evaluation of a high-resolution reanalysis of the East Australian Current region using the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS 3.4) and Incremental Strong-Constraint 4-Dimensional Variational (IS4D-Var) data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerry, Colette; Powell, Brian; Roughan, Moninya; Oke, Peter

2016-10-01

As with other Western Boundary Currents globally, the East Australian Current (EAC) is highly variable making it a challenge to model and predict. For the EAC region, we combine a high-resolution state-of-the-art numerical ocean model with a variety of traditional and newly available observations using an advanced variational data assimilation scheme. The numerical model is configured using the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS 3.4) and takes boundary forcing from the BlueLink ReANalysis (BRAN3). For the data assimilation, we use an Incremental Strong-Constraint 4-Dimensional Variational (IS4D-Var) scheme, which uses the model dynamics to perturb the initial conditions, atmospheric forcing, and boundary conditions, such that the modelled ocean state better fits and is in balance with the observations. This paper describes the data assimilative model configuration that achieves a significant reduction of the difference between the modelled solution and the observations to give a dynamically consistent "best estimate" of the ocean state over a 2-year period. The reanalysis is shown to represent both assimilated and non-assimilated observations well. It achieves mean spatially averaged root mean squared (rms) residuals with the observations of 7.6 cm for sea surface height (SSH) and 0.4 °C for sea surface temperature (SST) over the assimilation period. The time-mean rms residual for subsurface temperature measured by Argo floats is a maximum of 0.9 °C between water depths of 100 and 300 m and smaller throughout the rest of the water column. Velocities at several offshore and continental shelf moorings are well represented in the reanalysis with complex correlations between 0.8 and 1 for all observations in the upper 500 m. Surface radial velocities from a high-frequency radar array are assimilated and the reanalysis provides surface velocity estimates with complex correlations with observed velocities of 0.8-1 across the radar footprint. A comparison with independent (non-assimilated) shipboard conductivity temperature depth (CTD) cast observations shows a marked improvement in the representation of the subsurface ocean in the reanalysis, with the rms residual in potential density reduced to about half of the residual with the free-running model in the upper eddy-influenced part of the water column. This shows that information is successfully propagated from observed variables to unobserved regions as the assimilation system uses the model dynamics to adjust the model state estimate. This is the first study to generate a reanalysis of the region at such a high resolution, making use of an unprecedented observational data set and using an assimilation method that uses the time-evolving model physics to adjust the model in a dynamically consistent way. As such, the reanalysis potentially represents a marked improvement in our ability to capture important circulation dynamics in the EAC. The reanalysis is being used to study EAC dynamics, observation impact in state-estimation, and as forcing for a variety of downscaling studies.

Performance and quality assessment of the global ocean eddy-permitting physical reanalysis GLORYS2V4.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garric, Gilles; Parent, Laurent; Greiner, Eric; Drévillon, Marie; Hamon, Mathieu; Lellouche, Jean-Michel; Régnier, Charly; Desportes, Charles; Le Galloudec, Olivier; Bricaud, Clement; Drillet, Yann; Hernandez, Fabrice; Le Traon, Pierre-Yves

2017-04-01

The purpose of this presentation is to give an overview of the recent upgrade of GLORYS2 (version 4 and GLORYS2V4 hereafter), the latest ocean reanalysis produced at Mercator Ocean that covers the altimetry era (1993-2015) in the framework of Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS; http://marine.copernicus.eu/). The reanalysis is run at eddy-permitting resolution (¼° horizontal resolution and 75 vertical levels) with the NEMO model and driven at the surface by ERA-Interim reanalysis from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The reanalysis system uses a multi-data and multivariate reduced order Kalman filter based on the singular extended evolutive Kalman (SEEK) filter formulation together with a 3D-VAR large scale bias correction. The assimilated observations are along-track satellite altimetry, sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration and in-situ profiles of temperature and salinity. With respect to the previous version (GLORYS2V3), GLORYS2V4 contains a number of improvements. In particular: a) new initial temperature and salinity conditions derived from EN4 data base with a better mass equilibrium with altimetry, b) the use of the updated delayed mode CORA in situ observations from CMEMS, c) a new hybrid Mean Dynamical Topography (MDT) for the assimilation scheme referenced over the 1993-2013 period, d) a better observation operator for altimetry observations for the data assimilation scheme: e) A correction of large scale ERA-Interim atmospheric surface (precipitations and radiative) fluxes as in GLORYS2V3 but towards new satellite data set f) an update of the climatological runoff data base by using the latest version of Dai's 2009 data set for the global ocean together with better account of freshwater fluxes from polar ice sheet's glaciers. The presentation will show that the new reanalysis outperforms the previous version in many aspects such as biases and root mean squared error and, especially in representing the variability of global heat and salt content and associated steric sea level in the last two decades. The dataset is available in NetCDF format and GLORYS2V4 best analysis products are distributed onto the CMEMS data portal.

Closing the Seasonal Ocean Surface Temperature Balance in the Eastern Tropical Oceans from Remote Sensing and Model Reanalyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, J. Brent; Clayson, Carol A.

2012-01-01

The Eastern tropical ocean basins are regions of significant atmosphere-ocean interaction and are important to variability across subseasonal to decadal time scales. The numerous physical processes at play in these areas strain the abilities of coupled general circulation models to accurately reproduce observed upper ocean variability. Furthermore, limitations in the observing system of important terms in the surface temperature balance (e.g., turbulent and radiative heat fluxes, advection) introduce uncertainty into the analyses of processes controlling sea surface temperature variability. This study presents recent efforts to close the surface temperature balance through estimation of the terms in the mixed layer temperature budget using state-of-the-art remotely sensed and model-reanalysis derived products. A set of twelve net heat flux estimates constructed using combinations of radiative and turbulent heat flux products - including GEWEX-SRB, ISCCP-SRF, OAFlux, SeaFlux, among several others - are used with estimates of oceanic advection, entrainment, and mixed layer depth variability to investigate the seasonal variability of ocean surface temperatures. Particular emphasis is placed on how well the upper ocean temperature balance is, or is not, closed on these scales using the current generation of observational and model reanalysis products. That is, the magnitudes and spatial variability of residual imbalances are addressed. These residuals are placed into context within the current uncertainties of the surface net heat fluxes and the role of the mixed layer depth variability in scaling the impact of those uncertainties, particularly in the shallow mixed layers of the Eastern tropical ocean basins.

Probabilistic precipitation and temperature downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Caillouet, Laurie; Vidal, Jean -Philippe; Sauquet, Eric

This work proposes a daily high-resolution probabilistic reconstruction of precipitation and temperature fields in France over the 1871–2012 period built on the NOAA Twentieth Century global extended atmospheric reanalysis (20CR). The objective is to fill in the spatial and temporal data gaps in surface observations in order to improve our knowledge on the local-scale climate variability from the late nineteenth century onwards. The SANDHY (Stepwise ANalogue Downscaling method for HYdrology) statistical downscaling method, initially developed for quantitative precipitation forecast, is used here to bridge the scale gap between large-scale 20CR predictors and local-scale predictands from the Safran high-resolution near-surface reanalysis,more » available from 1958 onwards only. SANDHY provides a daily ensemble of 125 analogue dates over the 1871–2012 period for 608 climatically homogeneous zones paving France. Large precipitation biases in intermediary seasons are shown to occur in regions with high seasonal asymmetry like the Mediterranean. Moreover, winter and summer temperatures are respectively over- and under-estimated over the whole of France. Two analogue subselection methods are therefore developed with the aim of keeping the structure of the SANDHY method unchanged while reducing those seasonal biases. The calendar selection keeps the analogues closest to the target calendar day. The stepwise selection applies two new analogy steps based on similarity of the sea surface temperature (SST) and the large-scale 2 m temperature ( T). Comparisons to the Safran reanalysis over 1959–2007 and to homogenized series over the whole twentieth century show that biases in the interannual cycle of precipitation and temperature are reduced with both methods. The stepwise subselection moreover leads to a large improvement of interannual correlation and reduction of errors in seasonal temperature time series. When the calendar subselection is an easily applicable method suitable in a quantitative precipitation forecast context, the stepwise subselection method allows for potential season shifts and SST trends and is therefore better suited for climate reconstructions and climate change studies. Furthermore, the probabilistic downscaling of 20CR over the period 1871–2012 with the SANDHY probabilistic downscaling method combined with the stepwise subselection thus constitutes a perfect framework for assessing the recent observed meteorological events but also future events projected by climate change impact studies and putting them in a historical perspective.« less

Probabilistic precipitation and temperature downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France

DOE PAGES

Caillouet, Laurie; Vidal, Jean -Philippe; Sauquet, Eric; ...

2016-03-16

This work proposes a daily high-resolution probabilistic reconstruction of precipitation and temperature fields in France over the 1871–2012 period built on the NOAA Twentieth Century global extended atmospheric reanalysis (20CR). The objective is to fill in the spatial and temporal data gaps in surface observations in order to improve our knowledge on the local-scale climate variability from the late nineteenth century onwards. The SANDHY (Stepwise ANalogue Downscaling method for HYdrology) statistical downscaling method, initially developed for quantitative precipitation forecast, is used here to bridge the scale gap between large-scale 20CR predictors and local-scale predictands from the Safran high-resolution near-surface reanalysis,more » available from 1958 onwards only. SANDHY provides a daily ensemble of 125 analogue dates over the 1871–2012 period for 608 climatically homogeneous zones paving France. Large precipitation biases in intermediary seasons are shown to occur in regions with high seasonal asymmetry like the Mediterranean. Moreover, winter and summer temperatures are respectively over- and under-estimated over the whole of France. Two analogue subselection methods are therefore developed with the aim of keeping the structure of the SANDHY method unchanged while reducing those seasonal biases. The calendar selection keeps the analogues closest to the target calendar day. The stepwise selection applies two new analogy steps based on similarity of the sea surface temperature (SST) and the large-scale 2 m temperature ( T). Comparisons to the Safran reanalysis over 1959–2007 and to homogenized series over the whole twentieth century show that biases in the interannual cycle of precipitation and temperature are reduced with both methods. The stepwise subselection moreover leads to a large improvement of interannual correlation and reduction of errors in seasonal temperature time series. When the calendar subselection is an easily applicable method suitable in a quantitative precipitation forecast context, the stepwise subselection method allows for potential season shifts and SST trends and is therefore better suited for climate reconstructions and climate change studies. Furthermore, the probabilistic downscaling of 20CR over the period 1871–2012 with the SANDHY probabilistic downscaling method combined with the stepwise subselection thus constitutes a perfect framework for assessing the recent observed meteorological events but also future events projected by climate change impact studies and putting them in a historical perspective.« less

Mapping near-surface air temperature, pressure, relative humidity and wind speed over Mainland China with high spatiotemporal resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tao; Zheng, Xiaogu; Dai, Yongjiu; Yang, Chi; Chen, Zhuoqi; Zhang, Shupeng; Wu, Guocan; Wang, Zhonglei; Huang, Chengcheng; Shen, Yan; Liao, Rongwei

2014-09-01

As part of a joint effort to construct an atmospheric forcing dataset for mainland China with high spatiotemporal resolution, a new approach is proposed to construct gridded near-surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and surface pressure with a resolution of 1 km×1 km. The approach comprises two steps: (1) fit a partial thin-plate smoothing spline with orography and reanalysis data as explanatory variables to ground-based observations for estimating a trend surface; (2) apply a simple kriging procedure to the residual for trend surface correction. The proposed approach is applied to observations collected at approximately 700 stations over mainland China. The generated forcing fields are compared with the corresponding components of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset and the Princeton meteorological forcing dataset. The comparison shows that, both within the station network and within the resolutions of the two gridded datasets, the interpolation errors of the proposed approach are markedly smaller than the two gridded datasets.

Evaluation of East Asian climatology as simulated by seven coupled models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Dabang; Wang, Huijun; Lang, Xianmei

2005-07-01

Using observation and reanalysis data throughout 1961 1990, the East Asian surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure climatology as simulated by seven fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models, namely CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, ECHAM4/OPYC3, GFDL-R30, HadCM3, and NCAR-PCM, are systematically evaluated in this study. It is indicated that the above models can successfully reproduce the annual and seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation climatology in East Asia, with relatively good performance for boreal autumn and annual mean. The models’ ability to simulate surface air temperature is more reliable than precipitation. In addition, the models can dependably capture the geographical distribution pattern of annual, boreal winter, spring and autumn sea level pressure in East Asia. In contrast, relatively large simulation errors are displayed when simulated boreal summer sea level pressure is compared with reanalysis data in East Asia. It is revealed that the simulation errors for surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure are generally large over and around the Tibetan Plateau. No individual model is best in every aspect. As a whole, the ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3 performances are much better, whereas the CGCM2 is relatively poorer in East Asia. Additionally, the seven-model ensemble mean usually shows a relatively high reliability.

Daily temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region derived from the BaltAn65+ reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toll, Velle; Post, Piia

2018-04-01

Daily 2-m temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region for the time period of 1965-2005 is studied based on data from the BaltAn65 + high resolution atmospheric reanalysis. Moreover, the ability of regional reanalysis to capture extremes is analysed by comparing the reanalysis data to gridded observations. The shortcomings in the simulation of the minimum temperatures over the northern part of the region and in the simulation of the extreme precipitation over the Scandinavian mountains in the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data are detected and analysed. Temporal trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region, with the largest increases in temperature and precipitation in winter, are detected based on both gridded observations and the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data. However, the reanalysis is not able to capture all of the regional trends in the extremes in the observations due to the shortcomings in the simulation of the extremes.

Evaluation of the performance of hydrological variables derived from GLDAS-2 and MERRA-2 in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Real-Rangel, R. A.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.; Breña-Naranjo, J. A.

2017-12-01

Hydrological studies have found in data assimilation systems and global reanalysis of land surface variables (e.g soil moisture, streamflow) a wide range of applications, from drought monitoring to water balance and hydro-climatology variability assessment. Indeed, these hydrological data sources have led to an improvement in developing and testing monitoring and prediction systems in poorly gauged regions of the world. This work tests the accuracy and error of land surface variables (precipitation, soil moisture, runoff and temperature) derived from the data assimilation reanalysis products GLDAS-2 and MERRA-2. Validate the performance of these data platforms must be thoroughly evaluated in order to consider the error of hydrological variables (i.e., precipitation, soil moisture, runoff and temperature) derived from the reanalysis products. For such purpose, a quantitative assessment was performed at 2,892 climatological stations, 42 stream gauges and 44 soil moisture probes located in Mexico and across different climate regimes (hyper-arid to tropical humid). Results show comparisons between these gridded products against ground-based observational stations for 1979-2014. The results of this analysis display a spatial distribution of errors and accuracy over Mexico discussing differences between climates, enabling the informed use of these products.

Intraseasonal sea surface warming in the western Indian Ocean by oceanic equatorial Rossby waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rydbeck, Adam V.; Jensen, Tommy G.; Nyadjro, Ebenezer S.

2017-05-01

A novel process is identified whereby equatorial Rossby (ER) waves maintain warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies against cooling by processes related to atmospheric convection in the western Indian Ocean. As downwelling ER waves enter the western Indian Ocean, SST anomalies of +0.15°C develop near 60°E. These SST anomalies are hypothesized to stimulate convective onset of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The upper ocean warming that manifests in response to downwelling ER waves is examined in a mixed layer heat budget using observational and reanalysis products, respectively. In the heat budget, horizontal advection is the leading contributor to warming, in part due to an equatorial westward jet of 80 cm s-1 associated with downwelling ER waves. When anomalous currents associated with ER waves are removed in the budget, the warm intraseasonal temperature anomaly in the western Indian Ocean is eliminated in observations and reduced by 55% in reanalysis.

Development of high-resolution (250 m) historical daily gridded air temperature data using reanalysis and distributed sensor networks for the US northern Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Zachary A. Holden; Alan Swanson; Anna E. Klene; John T. Abatzoglou; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Samuel A. Cushman; John Squires; Gretchen G. Moisen; Jared W. Oyler

2016-01-01

Gridded temperature data sets are typically produced at spatial resolutions that cannot fully resolve fine-scale variation in surface air temperature in regions of complex topography. These data limitations have become increasingly important as scientists and managers attempt to understand and plan for potential climate change impacts. Here, we describe the...

Weekly cycle in the NCAR-NCEP reanalysis of the surface temperature over northern atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesouro, M.; Gimeno, L.; Nieto, R.; Añel, J. A.; de La Torre, L.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.

2003-04-01

Anthropogenic influences on climate has been detected in several climate variables, such as temperature increases and precipitation enhacement. An indicator of the anthropogenic effect is the identification of equivalent weekly cycle in climate parameters. In this case, we analyze the weekly cycle of the daily temperature at 2 metres from the NCAR-NCEP Reanalysis. The region of study is the window from 90ºW to 90ºE and from 88.5ºN to Equator and for the last 44 years. Results don´t show a clear pattern of the weekly cycle although it was possible to identify a minimum on Saturday in most of the grid points. We also analyze the weekly cycle of the temperature channel-2 MSU data that represent the lower troposphere and results don´t show any weekly cycle.

Observation of local cloud and moisture feedbacks over high ocean and desert surface temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chahine, Moustafa T.

1995-01-01

New data on clouds and moisture, made possible by reanalysis of weather satellite observations, show that the atmosphere reacts to warm clusters of very high sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific Ocean with increased moisture, cloudiness, and convection, suggesting a negative feedback limiting the sea surface temperature rise. The reverse was observed over dry and hot deserts where both moisture and cloudiness decrease, suggesting a positive feedback perpetuating existing desert conditions. In addition, the observations show a common critical surface temperature for both oceans and land; the distribution of atmospheric moisture is observed to reach a maximum value when the daily surface temperatures approach 304 +/- 1 K. These observations reveal complex dynamic-radiative interactions where multiple processes act simultaneously at the surface as well as in the atmosphere to regulate the feedback processes.

Analysis of Atmosphere-Ocean Surface Flux Feedbacks in Recent Satellite and Model Reanalysis Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, J. Brent; Robertson, F. R.; Clayson, C. A.

2010-01-01

Recent investigations have examined observations in an attempt to determine when and how the ocean forces the atmosphere, and vice versa. These studies focus primarily on relationships between sea surface temperature anomalies and the turbulent and radiative surface heat fluxes. It has been found that both positive and negative feedbacks, which enhance or reduce sea surface temperature anomaly amplitudes, can be generated through changes in the surface boundary layer. Consequent changes in sea surface temperature act to change boundary layer characteristics through changes in static stability or turbulent fluxes. Previous studies over the global oceans have used coarse-resolution observational and model products such as ICOADS and the NCEP Reanalysis. This study focuses on documenting the atmosphere ocean feedbacks that exist in recently produced higher resolution products, namely the SeaFlux v1.0 product and the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). It has been noted in recent studies that evidence of oceanic forcing of the atmosphere exists on smaller scales than the usually more dominant atmospheric forcing of the ocean, particularly in higher latitudes. It is expected that use of these higher resolution products will allow for a more comprehensive description of these small-scale ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. The SeaFlux intercomparisons have revealed large scatter between various surface flux climatologies. This study also investigates the uncertainty in surface flux feedbacks based on several of these recent satellite based climatologies

Impact of bias-corrected reanalysis-derived lateral boundary conditions on WRF simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moalafhi, Ditiro Benson; Sharma, Ashish; Evans, Jason Peter; Mehrotra, Rajeshwar; Rocheta, Eytan

2017-08-01

Lateral and lower boundary conditions derived from a suitable global reanalysis data set form the basis for deriving a dynamically consistent finer resolution downscaled product for climate and hydrological assessment studies. A problem with this, however, is that systematic biases have been noted to be present in the global reanalysis data sets that form these boundaries, biases which can be carried into the downscaled simulations thereby reducing their accuracy or efficacy. In this work, three Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model downscaling experiments are undertaken to investigate the impact of bias correcting European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasting Reanalysis ERA-Interim (ERA-I) atmospheric temperature and relative humidity using Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) satellite data. The downscaling is performed over a domain centered over southern Africa between the years 2003 and 2012. The sample mean and the mean as well as standard deviation at each grid cell for each variable are used for bias correction. The resultant WRF simulations of near-surface temperature and precipitation are evaluated seasonally and annually against global gridded observational data sets and compared with ERA-I reanalysis driving field. The study reveals inconsistencies between the impact of the bias correction prior to downscaling and the resultant model simulations after downscaling. Mean and standard deviation bias-corrected WRF simulations are, however, found to be marginally better than mean only bias-corrected WRF simulations and raw ERA-I reanalysis-driven WRF simulations. Performances, however, differ when assessing different attributes in the downscaled field. This raises questions about the efficacy of the correction procedures adopted.

Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products

DOE PAGES

Angélil, Oliver; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah; Alexander, Lisa V.; ...

2016-07-12

A growing field of research aims to characterise the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to the likelihood of extreme weather and climate events. These analyses can be sensitive to the shapes of the tails of simulated distributions. If tails are found to be unrealistically short or long, the anthropogenic signal emerges more or less clearly, respectively, from the noise of possible weather. Here we compare the chance of daily land-surface precipitation and near-surface temperature extremes generated by three Atmospheric Global Climate Models typically used for event attribution, with distributions from six reanalysis products. The likelihoods of extremes are compared for area-averagesmore » over grid cell and regional sized spatial domains. Results suggest a bias favouring overly strong attribution estimates for hot and cold events over many regions of Africa and Australia, and a bias favouring overly weak attribution estimates over regions of North America and Asia. For rainfall, results are more sensitive to geographic location. Although the three models show similar results over many regions, they do disagree over others. Equally, results highlight the discrepancy amongst reanalyses products. This emphasises the importance of using multiple reanalysis and/or observation products, as well as multiple models in event attribution studies.« less

Towards Improved High-Resolution Land Surface Hydrologic Reanalysis Using a Physically-Based Hydrologic Model and Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Y.; Davis, K. J.; Zhang, F.; Duffy, C.; Yu, X.

2014-12-01

A coupled physically based land surface hydrologic model, Flux-PIHM, has been developed by incorporating a land surface scheme into the Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM). The land surface scheme is adapted from the Noah land surface model. Flux-PIHM has been implemented and manually calibrated at the Shale Hills watershed (0.08 km2) in central Pennsylvania. Model predictions of discharge, point soil moisture, point water table depth, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and soil temperature show good agreement with observations. When calibrated only using discharge, and soil moisture and water table depth at one point, Flux-PIHM is able to resolve the observed 101 m scale soil moisture pattern at the Shale Hills watershed when an appropriate map of soil hydraulic properties is provided. A Flux-PIHM data assimilation system has been developed by incorporating EnKF for model parameter and state estimation. Both synthetic and real data assimilation experiments have been performed at the Shale Hills watershed. Synthetic experiment results show that the data assimilation system is able to simultaneously provide accurate estimates of multiple parameters. In the real data experiment, the EnKF estimated parameters and manually calibrated parameters yield similar model performances, but the EnKF method significantly decreases the time and labor required for calibration. The data requirements for accurate Flux-PIHM parameter estimation via data assimilation using synthetic observations have been tested. Results show that by assimilating only in situ outlet discharge, soil water content at one point, and the land surface temperature averaged over the whole watershed, the data assimilation system can provide an accurate representation of watershed hydrology. Observations of these key variables are available with national and even global spatial coverage (e.g., MODIS surface temperature, SMAP soil moisture, and the USGS gauging stations). National atmospheric reanalysis products, soil databases and land cover databases (e.g., NLDAS-2, SSURGO, NLCD) can provide high resolution forcing and input data. Therefore the Flux-PIHM data assimilation system could be readily expanded to other watersheds to provide regional scale land surface and hydrologic reanalysis with high spatial temporal resolution.

Evaluating global reanalysis datasets for provision of boundary conditions in regional climate modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moalafhi, Ditiro B.; Evans, Jason P.; Sharma, Ashish

2016-11-01

Regional climate modelling studies often begin by downscaling a reanalysis dataset in order to simulate the observed climate, allowing the investigation of regional climate processes and quantification of the errors associated with the regional model. To date choice of reanalysis to perform such downscaling has been made based either on convenience or on performance of the reanalyses within the regional domain for relevant variables such as near-surface air temperature and precipitation. However, the only information passed from the reanalysis to the regional model are the atmospheric temperature, moisture and winds at the location of the boundaries of the regional domain. Here we present a methodology to evaluate reanalyses derived lateral boundary conditions for an example domain over southern Africa using satellite data. This study focusses on atmospheric temperature and moisture which are easily available. Five commonly used global reanalyses (NCEP1, NCEP2, ERA-I, 20CRv2, and MERRA) are evaluated against the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder satellite temperature and relative humidity over boundaries of two domains centred on southern Africa for the years 2003-2012 inclusive. The study reveals that MERRA is the most suitable for climate mean with NCEP1 the next most suitable. For climate variability, ERA-I is the best followed by MERRA. Overall, MERRA is preferred for generating lateral boundary conditions for this domain, followed by ERA-I. While a "better" LBC specification is not the sole precursor to an improved downscaling outcome, any reduction in uncertainty associated with the specification of LBCs is a step in the right direction.

Surface Water and Energy Budgets for Sub-Saharan Africa in GFDL Coupled Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, D.; Wood, E. F.; Vecchi, G. A.; Jia, L.; Pan, M.

2015-12-01

This study compare surface water and energy budget variables from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) FLOR models with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Princeton University Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset (PGF), and PGF-driven Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model outputs, as well as available observations over the sub-Saharan Africa. The comparison was made for four configurations of the FLOR models that included FLOR phase 1 (FLOR-p1) and phase 2 (FLOR-p2) and two phases of flux adjusted versions (FLOR-FA-p1 and FLOR-FA-p2). Compared to p1, simulated atmospheric states in p2 were nudged to the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis. The seasonal cycle and annual mean of major surface water (precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and change of storage) and energy variables (sensible heat, ground heat, latent heat, net solar radiation, net longwave radiation, and skin temperature) over a 34-yr period during 1981-2014 were compared in different regions in sub-Saharan Africa (West Africa, East Africa, and Southern Africa). In addition to evaluating the means in three sub-regions, empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) analyses were conducted to compare both spatial and temporal characteristics of water and energy budget variables from four versions of GFDL FLOR, NCEP CFSR, PGF, and VIC outputs. This presentation will show how well each coupled climate model represented land surface physics and reproduced spatiotemporal characteristics of surface water and energy budget variables. We discuss what caused differences in surface water and energy budgets in land surface components of coupled climate model, climate reanalysis, and reanalysis driven land surface model. The comparisons will reveal whether flux adjustment and nudging would improve depiction of the surface water and energy budgets in coupled climate models.

Improving Global Net Surface Heat Flux with Ocean Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carton, J.; Chepurin, G. A.; Chen, L.; Grodsky, S.

2017-12-01

This project addresses the current level of uncertainty in surface heat flux estimates. Time mean surface heat flux estimates provided by atmospheric reanalyses differ by 10-30W/m2. They are generally unbalanced globally, and have been shown by ocean simulation studies to be incompatible with ocean temperature and velocity measurements. Here a method is presented 1) to identify the spatial and temporal structure of the underlying errors and 2) to reduce them by exploiting hydrographic observations and the analysis increments produced by an ocean reanalysis using sequential data assimilation. The method is applied to fluxes computed from daily state variables obtained from three widely used reanalyses: MERRA2, ERA-Interim, and JRA-55, during an eight year period 2007-2014. For each of these seasonal heat flux errors/corrections are obtained. In a second set of experiments the heat fluxes are corrected and the ocean reanalysis experiments are repeated. This second round of experiments shows that the time mean error in the corrected fluxes is reduced to within ±5W/m2 over the interior subtropical and midlatitude oceans, with the most significant changes occuring over the Southern Ocean. The global heat flux imbalance of each reanalysis is reduced to within a few W/m2 with this single correction. Encouragingly, the corrected forms of the three sets of fluxes are also shown to converge. In the final discussion we present experiments beginning with a modified form of the ERA-Int reanalysis, produced by the DAKKAR program, in which state variables have been individually corrected based on independent measurements. Finally, we discuss the separation of flux error from model error.

How well do Reanalysis represent polar lows?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zappa, G.; Shaffrey, L.; Hodges, K.

2013-12-01

Polar lows are intense maritime mesocyclones forming at high latitudes during polar air outbreaks. The associated high surface winds can be an important cause of coastal damage.They also seem to play a relevant role in the climate system by modulating the oceanic surface heat fluxes. This creates strong interest in understanding whether modern reanalysis datasets are able to represent polar lows, as well as how their representation may be sensitive to the model resolution. In this talk we investigate how ERA-Interim reanalysis represents the polar lows identified by the Norwegian meteorological services and listed in the STARS (Combination of Sea Surface Temperature and AltimeteR Synergy) dataset for the period 2002-2011. The sensitivity to resolution is explored by comparing ERA-Interim to the ECMWF operational analyses (2008-2011), which have three times higher horizontal resolution compared to ERA-Interim. We show that ERAI-Interim has excellent ability to capture the observed polar lows events with up to 90% of the observed events being found in the reanalysis. However, ERA-Interim tends to have polar lows of weaker dynamical intensity, in terms of both winds and vorticity, and with less spatial structure than in the ECMWF operational analyses (See Fig 1). Furthermore, we apply an objective feature tracking algorithm to the 3 hourly vorticity at 850 hPa with constraints on vorticity intensity and atmospheric static stability to objectively identify polar lows in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. We show that for the stronger polar lows the objective climatology shows good agreement with the STARS dataset over the 2002-2011 period. This allows us to extend the polar lows climatology over the whole ERA Interim period. Differences with another reanalysis product (NCEP-CFSR) will be also discussed. Fig 1: Composite of the tangential wind speed at 925 hPa for 34 polar lows observed in the Norwegian sea between 2008-2010 as represented by the ERA-Interim reanalysis (left) and by the ECMWF Operational analysis (right). Positive values indicate cyclonic circulation. The composite is centered on the polar low vorticity maxima and it is presented for a radial cap of 5 degrees of radius on the sphere (~550Km).

Global trends and variability in integrated water vapour from ground-based GPS data and atmospheric models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bock, Olivier; Parracho, Ana; Bastin, Sophie; Hourdin, Frededic; Mellul, Lidia

2016-04-01

A high-quality, consistent, global, long-term dataset of integrated water vapour (IWV) was produced from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements at more than 400 sites over the globe among which 120 sites have more than 15 years of data. The GPS delay data were converted to IWV using surface pressure and weighted mean temperature estimates from ERA-Interim reanalysis. A two-step screening method was developed to detect and remove outliers in the IWV data. It is based on: 1) GPS data processing information and delay formal errors, and 2) intercomparison with ERA-Interim reanalysis data. The GPS IWV data are also homogenized to correct for offsets due to instrumental changes and other unknown factors. The differential homogenization method uses ERA-Interim IWV as a reference. The resulting GPS data are used to document the mean distribution, the global trends and the variability of IWV over the period 1995-2010, and are analysed in coherence with precipitation and surface temperature data (from observations and ERA-Interim reanalysis). These data are also used to assess global climate model simulations extracted from the IPCC AR5 archive. Large coherent spatial patterns of moistening and drying are evidenced but significant discrepancies are also seen between GPS measurements, reanalysis and climate models in various regions. In terms of variability, the monthly mean anomalies are intercompared. The temporal correlation between GPS and the climate model simulations is overall quite small but the spatial variation of the magnitude of the anomalies is globally well simulated. GPS IWV data prove to be useful to validate global climate model simulations and highlight deficiencies in their representation of the water cycle.

Developing a high-resolution regional atmospheric reanalysis for Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Christopher; Fox-Hughes, Paul; Su, Chun-Hsu; Jakob, Dörte; Kociuba, Greg; Eisenberg, Nathan; Steinle, Peter; Harris, Rebecca; Corney, Stuart; Love, Peter; Remenyi, Tomas; Chladil, Mark; Bally, John; Bindoff, Nathan

2017-04-01

A dynamically consistent, long-term atmospheric reanalysis can be used to support high-quality assessments of environmental risk and likelihood of extreme events. Most reanalyses are presently based on coarse-scale global systems that are not suitable for regional assessments in fire risk, water and natural resources, amongst others. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is currently working to close this gap by producing a high-resolution reanalysis over the Australian and New Zealand region to construct a sequence of atmospheric conditions at sub-hourly intervals over the past 25 years from 1990. The Australia reanalysis consists of a convective-scale analysis nested within a 12 km regional-scale reanalysis, which is bounded by a coarse-scale ERA-Interim reanalysis that provides the required boundary and initial conditions. We use an unchanging atmospheric modelling suite based on the UERRA system used at the UK Met Office and the more recent version of the Bureau of Meteorology's operational numerical prediction model used in ACCESS-R (Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator-Regional system). An advanced (4-dimensional variational) data assimilation scheme is used to optimally combine model physics with multiple observations from aircrafts, sondes, surface observations and satellites to create a best estimate of state of the atmosphere over a 6-hour moving window. This analysis is in turn used to drive a higher-resolution (1.5 km) downscaling model over selected subdomains within Australia, currently eastern New South Wales and Tasmania, with the capability to support this anywhere in the Australia-New Zealand domain. The temporal resolution of the gridded analysis fields for both the regional and higher-resolution subdomains are generally one hour, with many fields such as 10 m winds and 2 m temperatures available every 10 minutes. The reanalysis also produces many other variables that include wind, temperature, moisture, pressure, cloud cover, precipitation, evaporation, soil water, and energy fluxes. In this presentation, we report on the implementation of the Australia regional reanalysis and results from first stages of the project, with a focus on the Tasmanian subdomain. An initial benchmarking 1.5 km data set - referred to as the 'Initial Analysis' - has been constructed over the subdomains consisting of regridded and harmonised analysis and short-term forecast fields from the operational ACCESS-C model using the past 5 years (2011-2015) of archived data. Evaluation of the Initial Analysis against surface observations from automatic weather stations indicate changes in model skills over time that may be attributed to changes in NWP and assimilation systems, and model cycling frequency. Preliminary evaluations of the reanalysis across Tasmania and its inter-comparisons with the Initial Analysis and the ERA-Interim reanalysis products will be presented, including some features across the Tasmanian subdomain such as means and extremes of analysed weather variables. Finally, we describe a number of applications across Tasmania of the reanalysis of immediate interest to meteorologists, fire and landscape managers and other members of the emergency management community, including the use of the data to create post-processed fields such as soil dryness, tornados and fire danger indices for forest fire danger risk assessment, including a climatology of Continuous Haines Index.

Impact of data assimilation on Eulerian versus Lagrangian estimates of upper ocean transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperrevik, Ann Kristin; Röhrs, Johannes; Christensen, Kai Hâkon

2017-07-01

Using four-dimensional variational analysis, we produce an estimate of the state of a coastal region in Northern Norway during the late winter and spring in 1984. We use satellite sea surface temperature and in situ observations from a series of intensive field campaigns, and obtain a more realistic distribution of water masses both in the horizontal and the vertical than a pure downscaling approach can achieve. Although the distribution of Eulerian surface current speeds are similar, we find that they are more variable and less dependent on model bathymetry in our reanalysis compared to a hindcast produced using the same modeling system. Lagrangian drift currents on the other hand are significantly changed, with overall higher kinetic energy levels in the reanalysis than in the hindcast, particularly in the superinertial frequency band.

Development of an eddy-resolving reanalysis using the 1/12° global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model and the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation Scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allard, Richard; Metzger, E. Joseph; Broome, Robert; Franklin, Deborah; Smedstad, Ole Martin; Wallcraft, Alan

2013-04-01

Multiple international agencies have performed atmospheric reanalyses using static dynamical models and assimilation schemes while ingesting all available quality controlled observational data. Some are clearly aimed at climate time scales while others focus on the more recent time period in which assimilated satellite data are used to constrain the system. Typically these are performed at horizontal and vertical resolutions that are coarser than the existing operational atmospheric prediction system. Multiple agencies have also performed ocean reanalyses using some of the atmospheric forcing products described above. However, only a few are eddy-permitting and none are capable of resolving oceanic mesoscale features (eddies and current meanders) across the entire globe. To fill this void, the Naval Research Laboratory is performing an eddy-resolving 1993-2010 ocean reanalysis using the 1/12° global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) that employs the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) scheme. A 1/12° global HYCOM/NCODA prediction system has been running in real-time at the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO) since 22 December 2006. It has undergone operational testing and will become an operational product by early 2013. It is capable of nowcasting and forecasting the oceanic "weather" which includes the 3D ocean temperature, salinity and current structure, the surface mixed layer, and the location of mesoscale features such as eddies, meandering currents and fronts. The system has a mid-latitude resolution of ~7 km and employs 32 hybrid vertical coordinate surfaces. Compared to traditional isopycnal coordinate models, the hybrid vertical coordinate extends the geographic range of applicability toward shallow coastal seas and the unstratified parts of the world ocean. HYCOM contains a built-in thermodynamic ice model, where ice grows and melts due to heat flux and sea surface temperature (SST) changes, but it does not contain advanced rheological physics. The ice edge is constrained by satellite ice concentration. Once per day, NCODA performs a 3D ocean analysis using all available observational data and the 1-day HYCOM forecast as the first guess in a sequential incremental update cycle. Observational data include surface observations from satellites, including sea surface height (SSH) anomalies, SST, and sea ice concentrations, plus in-situ SST observations from ships and buoys as well as temperature and salinity profiles from XBTs, CTDs and Argo profiling floats. Surface information is projected downward using synthetic profiles from the Modular Ocean Data Assimilation System (MODAS) at those locations with a predefined SSH anomaly. Unlike previous reanalyses, this ocean reanalysis will be integrated at the same horizontal and vertical resolution as the operational system running at NAVOCEANO. The system is forced with atmospheric output from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and the observations listed above. The reanalysis began in 1993 because of the advent of satellite altimeter data that will constrain the oceanic mesoscale. Significant effort has been put into obtaining and quality controlling all input observational data, with special emphasis on the profile data. The computational resources are obtained through the High Performance Computing Modernization Office.

Evaluation of Greenland near surface air temperature datasets

DOE PAGES

Reeves Eyre, J. E. Jack; Zeng, Xubin

2017-07-05

Near-surface air temperature (SAT) over Greenland has important effects on mass balance of the ice sheet, but it is unclear which SAT datasets are reliable in the region. Here extensive in situ SAT measurements ( ∼  1400 station-years) are used to assess monthly mean SAT from seven global reanalysis datasets, five gridded SAT analyses, one satellite retrieval and three dynamically downscaled reanalyses. Strengths and weaknesses of these products are identified, and their biases are found to vary by season and glaciological regime. MERRA2 reanalysis overall performs best with mean absolute error less than 2 °C in all months. Ice sheet-average annual mean SAT frommore » different datasets are highly correlated in recent decades, but their 1901–2000 trends differ even in sign. Compared with the MERRA2 climatology combined with gridded SAT analysis anomalies, thirty-one earth system model historical runs from the CMIP5 archive reach  ∼  5 °C for the 1901–2000 average bias and have opposite trends for a number of sub-periods.« less

A monthly global paleo-reanalysis of the atmosphere from 1600 to 2005 for studying past climatic variations

PubMed Central

Franke, Jörg; Brönnimann, Stefan; Bhend, Jonas; Brugnara, Yuri

2017-01-01

Climatic variations at decadal scales such as phases of accelerated warming or weak monsoons have profound effects on society and economy. Studying these variations requires insights from the past. However, most current reconstructions provide either time series or fields of regional surface climate, which limit our understanding of the underlying dynamics. Here, we present the first monthly paleo-reanalysis covering the period 1600 to 2005. Over land, instrumental temperature and surface pressure observations, temperature indices derived from historical documents and climate sensitive tree-ring measurements were assimilated into an atmospheric general circulation model ensemble using a Kalman filtering technique. This data set combines the advantage of traditional reconstruction methods of being as close as possible to observations with the advantage of climate models of being physically consistent and having 3-dimensional information about the state of the atmosphere for various variables and at all points in time. In contrast to most statistical reconstructions, centennial variability stems from the climate model and its forcings, no stationarity assumptions are made and error estimates are provided. PMID:28585926

Evaluation of Greenland near surface air temperature datasets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reeves Eyre, J. E. Jack; Zeng, Xubin

Near-surface air temperature (SAT) over Greenland has important effects on mass balance of the ice sheet, but it is unclear which SAT datasets are reliable in the region. Here extensive in situ SAT measurements ( ∼  1400 station-years) are used to assess monthly mean SAT from seven global reanalysis datasets, five gridded SAT analyses, one satellite retrieval and three dynamically downscaled reanalyses. Strengths and weaknesses of these products are identified, and their biases are found to vary by season and glaciological regime. MERRA2 reanalysis overall performs best with mean absolute error less than 2 °C in all months. Ice sheet-average annual mean SAT frommore » different datasets are highly correlated in recent decades, but their 1901–2000 trends differ even in sign. Compared with the MERRA2 climatology combined with gridded SAT analysis anomalies, thirty-one earth system model historical runs from the CMIP5 archive reach  ∼  5 °C for the 1901–2000 average bias and have opposite trends for a number of sub-periods.« less

A virtual climate library of surface temperature over North America for 1979-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravtsov, Sergey; Roebber, Paul; Brazauskas, Vytaras

2017-10-01

The most comprehensive continuous-coverage modern climatic data sets, known as reanalyses, come from combining state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with diverse available observations. These reanalysis products estimate the path of climate evolution that actually happened, and their use in a probabilistic context—for example, to document trends in extreme events in response to climate change—is, therefore, limited. Free runs of NWP models without data assimilation can in principle be used for the latter purpose, but such simulations are computationally expensive and are prone to systematic biases. Here we produce a high-resolution, 100-member ensemble simulation of surface atmospheric temperature over North America for the 1979-2015 period using a comprehensive spatially extended non-stationary statistical model derived from the data based on the North American Regional Reanalysis. The surrogate climate realizations generated by this model are independent from, yet nearly statistically congruent with reality. This data set provides unique opportunities for the analysis of weather-related risk, with applications in agriculture, energy development, and protection of human life.

A virtual climate library of surface temperature over North America for 1979–2015

PubMed Central

Kravtsov, Sergey; Roebber, Paul; Brazauskas, Vytaras

2017-01-01

The most comprehensive continuous-coverage modern climatic data sets, known as reanalyses, come from combining state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with diverse available observations. These reanalysis products estimate the path of climate evolution that actually happened, and their use in a probabilistic context—for example, to document trends in extreme events in response to climate change—is, therefore, limited. Free runs of NWP models without data assimilation can in principle be used for the latter purpose, but such simulations are computationally expensive and are prone to systematic biases. Here we produce a high-resolution, 100-member ensemble simulation of surface atmospheric temperature over North America for the 1979–2015 period using a comprehensive spatially extended non-stationary statistical model derived from the data based on the North American Regional Reanalysis. The surrogate climate realizations generated by this model are independent from, yet nearly statistically congruent with reality. This data set provides unique opportunities for the analysis of weather-related risk, with applications in agriculture, energy development, and protection of human life. PMID:29039842

A virtual climate library of surface temperature over North America for 1979-2015.

PubMed

Kravtsov, Sergey; Roebber, Paul; Brazauskas, Vytaras

2017-10-17

The most comprehensive continuous-coverage modern climatic data sets, known as reanalyses, come from combining state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with diverse available observations. These reanalysis products estimate the path of climate evolution that actually happened, and their use in a probabilistic context-for example, to document trends in extreme events in response to climate change-is, therefore, limited. Free runs of NWP models without data assimilation can in principle be used for the latter purpose, but such simulations are computationally expensive and are prone to systematic biases. Here we produce a high-resolution, 100-member ensemble simulation of surface atmospheric temperature over North America for the 1979-2015 period using a comprehensive spatially extended non-stationary statistical model derived from the data based on the North American Regional Reanalysis. The surrogate climate realizations generated by this model are independent from, yet nearly statistically congruent with reality. This data set provides unique opportunities for the analysis of weather-related risk, with applications in agriculture, energy development, and protection of human life.

Lagrangian large eddy simulations of boundary layer clouds on ERA-Interim and ERA5 trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazil, J.; Feingold, G.; Yamaguchi, T.

2017-12-01

This exploratory study examines Lagrangian large eddy simulations of boundary layer clouds along wind trajectories from the ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalyses. The study is motivated by the need for statistically representative sets of high resolution simulations of cloud field evolution in realistic meteorological conditions. The study will serve as a foundation for the investigation of biomass burning effects on the transition from stratocumulus to shallow cumulus clouds in the South-East Atlantic. Trajectories that pass through a location with radiosonde data (St. Helena) and which exhibit a well-defined cloud structure and evolution were identified in satellite imagery, and sea surface temperature and atmospheric vertical profiles along the trajectories were extracted from the reanalysis data sets. The System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) simulated boundary layer turbulence and cloud properties along the trajectories. Mean temperature and moisture (in the free troposphere) and mean wind speed (at all levels) were nudged towards the reanalysis data. Atmospheric and cloud properties in the large eddy simulations were compared with those from the reanalysis products, and evaluated with satellite imagery and radiosonde data. Simulations using ERA-Interim data and the higher resolution ERA5 data are contrasted.

Probabilistic precipitation and temperature downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caillouet, Laurie; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Sauquet, Eric; Graff, Benjamin

2015-04-01

This work proposes a daily high-resolution probabilistic reconstruction of precipitation and temperature fields in France over the last century built on the NOAA 20th century global extended atmospheric reanalysis (20CR, Compo et al., 2011). It aims at delivering appropriate meteorological forcings for continuous distributed hydrological modelling over the last 140 years. The longer term objective is to improve our knowledge of major historical hydrometeorological events having occurred outside of the last 50-year period, over which comprehensive reconstructions and observations are available. It would constitute a perfect framework for assessing the recent observed events but also future events projected by climate change impact studies. The Sandhy (Stepwise ANalogue Downscaling method for Hydrology) statistical downscaling method (Radanovics et al., 2013), initially developed for quantitative precipitation forecast, is used here to bridge the scale gap between 20CR predictors - temperature, geopotential shape, vertical velocity and relative humidity - and local predictands - precipitation and temperature - relevant for catchment-scale hydrology. Multiple predictor domains for geopotential shape are retained from a local optimisation over France using the Safran near-surface reanalysis (Vidal et al., 2010). Sandhy gives an ensemble of 125 equally plausible gridded precipitation and temperature time series over the whole 1871-2012 period. Previous studies showed that Sandhy precipitation outputs are very slightly biased at the annual time scale. Nevertheless, the seasonal precipitation signal for areas with a high interannual variability is not well simulated. Moreover, winter and summer temperatures are respectively over- and underestimated. Reliable seasonal precipitation and temperature signals are however necessary for hydrological modelling, especially for evapotranspiration and snow accumulation/snowmelt processes. Two different post-processing methods are considered to correct monthly precipitation and temperature time series. The first one applies two new analogy steps, using the sea surface temperature (SST) and the large-scale two-meter temperature. The second method is a calendar selection that keeps the closest analogue dates in the year for each target date. A sensitivity study has been performed to assess the final number of analogues dates to retain for each method. A comparison to Safran over 1958-2010 shows that biases on the interannual cycle of precipitation and temperature are strongly reduced with both methods. Using two supplementary analogy levels moreover leads to a large improvement of correlation in seasonal temperature time series. These two methods have also been validated before 1958 thanks to both raw observations and homogenized time series. The two post-processing methods come with some advantages and drawbacks. The calendar selection allows to slightly better correct for seasonal biases in precipitation and is therefore adapted in a forecasting context. The selection with two supplementary analogy levels would allow for possible season shifts and SST trends and is therefore better suited for climate reconstruction and climate change studies. Compo, G. P. et al. (2011). The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137:1-28. doi: 10.1002/qj.776 Radanovics, S., Vidal, J.-P., Sauquet, E., Ben Daoud, A., and Bontron, G. (2013). Optimising predictor domains for spatially coherent precipitation downscaling. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17:4189-4208. doi:10.5194/hess-17-4189-2013 Vidal, J.-P ., Martin, E., Franchistéguy, L., Baillon, M., and Soubeyroux, J.-M. (2010). A 50-year high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis over France with the Safran system. International Journal of Climatology, 30:1627-1644. doi:10.1002/joc.2003

Surface wave effects in the NEMO ocean model: Forced and coupled experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breivik, Øyvind; Mogensen, Kristian; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Balmaseda, Magdalena Alonso; Janssen, Peter A. E. M.

2015-04-01

The NEMO general circulation ocean model is extended to incorporate three physical processes related to ocean surface waves, namely the surface stress (modified by growth and dissipation of the oceanic wavefield), the turbulent kinetic energy flux from breaking waves, and the Stokes-Coriolis force. Experiments are done with NEMO in ocean-only (forced) mode and coupled to the ECMWF atmospheric and wave models. Ocean-only integrations are forced with fields from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. All three effects are noticeable in the extratropics, but the sea-state-dependent turbulent kinetic energy flux yields by far the largest difference. This is partly because the control run has too vigorous deep mixing due to an empirical mixing term in NEMO. We investigate the relation between this ad hoc mixing and Langmuir turbulence and find that it is much more effective than the Langmuir parameterization used in NEMO. The biases in sea surface temperature as well as subsurface temperature are reduced, and the total ocean heat content exhibits a trend closer to that observed in a recent ocean reanalysis (ORAS4) when wave effects are included. Seasonal integrations of the coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model consisting of NEMO, the wave model ECWAM, and the atmospheric model of ECMWF similarly show that the sea surface temperature biases are greatly reduced when the mixing is controlled by the sea state and properly weighted by the thickness of the uppermost level of the ocean model. These wave-related physical processes were recently implemented in the operational coupled ensemble forecast system of ECMWF.

On the impact of using downscaled reanalysis data instead of direct measurements for modeling the mass balance of a tropical glacier (Cordillera Blanca, Peru)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galos, Stephan; Hofer, Marlis; Marzeion, Ben; Mölg, Thomas; Großhauser, Martin

2013-04-01

Due to their setting, tropical glaciers are sensitive indicators of mid-tropospheric meteorological variability and climate change. Furthermore these glaciers are of particular interest because they respond faster to climatic changes than glaciers located in mid- or high-latitudes. As long-term direct meteorological measurements in such remote environments are scarce, reanalysis data (e.g. ERA-Interim) provide a highly valuable source of information. Reanalysis datasets (i) enable a temporal extension of data records gained by direct measurements and (ii) provide information from regions where direct measurements are not available. In order to properly derive the physical exchange processes between glaciers and atmosphere from reanalysis data, downscaling procedures are required. In the present study we investigate if downscaled atmospheric variables (air temperature and relative humidity) from a reanalysis dataset can be used as input for a physically based, high resolution energy and mass balance model. We apply a well validated empirical-statistical downscaling model, fed with ERA-Interim data, to an automated weather station (AWS) on the surface of Glaciar Artesonraju (8.96° S | 77.63° W). The downscaled data is then used to replace measured air temperature and relative humidity in the input for the energy and mass balance model, which was calibrated using ablation data from stakes and a sonic ranger. In order to test the sensitivity of the modeled mass balance to the downscaled data, the results are compared to a reference model run driven solely with AWS data as model input. We finally discuss the results and present future perspectives for further developing this method.

Assessment of surface air temperature over the Arctic Ocean in reanalysis and IPCC AR4 model simulations with IABP/POLES observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiping; Zhang, Zhanhai; Hu, Yongyun; Chen, Liqi; Dai, Yongjiu; Ren, Xiaobo

2008-05-01

The surface air temperature (SAT) over the Arctic Ocean in reanalyses and global climate model simulations was assessed using the International Arctic Buoy Programme/Polar Exchange at the Sea Surface (IABP/POLES) observations for the period 1979-1999. The reanalyses, including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis II (NCEP2) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast 40-year Reanalysis (ERA40), show encouraging agreement with the IABP/POLES observations, although some spatiotemporal discrepancies are noteworthy. The reanalyses have warm annual mean biases and underestimate the observed interannual SAT variability in summer. Additionally, NCEP2 shows an excessive warming trend. Most model simulations (coordinated by the International Panel on Climate Change for its Fourth Assessment Report) reproduce the annual mean, seasonal cycle, and trend of the observed SAT reasonably well, particularly the multi-model ensemble mean. However, large discrepancies are found. Some models have the annual mean SAT biases far exceeding the standard deviation of the observed interannul SAT variability and the across-model standard deviation. Spatially, the largest inter-model variance of the annual mean SAT is found over the North Pole, Greenland Sea, Barents Sea and Baffin Bay. Seasonally, a large spread of the simulated SAT among the models is found in winter. The models show interannual variability and decadal trend of various amplitudes, and can not capture the observed dominant SAT mode variability and cooling trend in winter. Further discussions of the possible attributions to the identified SAT errors for some models suggest that the model's performance in the sea ice simulation is an important factor.

Using ERA-Interim reanalysis for creating datasets of energy-relevant climate variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Philip D.; Harpham, Colin; Troccoli, Alberto; Gschwind, Benoit; Ranchin, Thierry; Wald, Lucien; Goodess, Clare M.; Dorling, Stephen

2017-07-01

The construction of a bias-adjusted dataset of climate variables at the near surface using ERA-Interim reanalysis is presented. A number of different, variable-dependent, bias-adjustment approaches have been proposed. Here we modify the parameters of different distributions (depending on the variable), adjusting ERA-Interim based on gridded station or direct station observations. The variables are air temperature, dewpoint temperature, precipitation (daily only), solar radiation, wind speed, and relative humidity. These are available on either 3 or 6 h timescales over the period 1979-2016. The resulting bias-adjusted dataset is available through the Climate Data Store (CDS) of the Copernicus Climate Change Data Store (C3S) and can be accessed at present from ftp://ecem.climate.copernicus.eu. The benefit of performing bias adjustment is demonstrated by comparing initial and bias-adjusted ERA-Interim data against gridded observational fields.

Cooling of the North Atlantic by Saharan Dust

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Kim, K. M.

2007-01-01

Using aerosol optical depth, sea surface temperature, top-of-the-atmosphere solar radiation flux, and oceanic mixed-layer depth from diverse data sources that include NASA satellites, NCEP reanalysis, in situ observations, as well as long-term dust records from Barbados, we examine the possible relationships between Saharan dust and Atlantic sea surface temperature. Results show that the estimated anomalous cooling pattern of the Atlantic during June 2006 relative to June 2005 due to attenuation of surface solar radiation by Saharan dust remarkably resemble observations, accounting for approximately 30-40% of the observed change in sea surface temperature. Historical data analysis show that there is a robust negative correlation between atmospheric dust loading and Atlantic SST consistent with the notion that increased (decreased) Saharan dust is associated with cooling (warming) of the Atlantic during the early hurricane season (July- August-September).

Qualitative comparison of air temperature trends based on ncar/ncep reanalysis, model simulations and aerological observations data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubinstein, K. G.; Khan, V. M.; Sterin, A. M.

In the present study we discuss two points. The first one is related with applicability of reanalysis data to investigating long-term climate variability. We present results of comparison of long term air temperature trends for the troposphere and the low stratosphere calculated using monthly averaged NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data on one hand and direct rawinsond observations from 443 stations on the other. The trends and other statistical characteristics are calculated for two overlapping time periods, namely 1964 through 1998, and 1979 through 1998. These two intervals were chosen in order to examine the influence of satellite observations on the reanalysis data, given that most satellite data have appeared after 1979. Vertical profiles of air temperature trends are also analyzed using the two types of data for different seasons. A special criterion is applied to evaluate the degree of coincidence by sign between the air temperatures trends derived from the two types of data. Vertical sections of the linear trend averaged over the 10-degrees zones for the both hemispheres are analyzed. It is shown that the two types of data exhibit good coincidence in the terms of the trend sign for the low and middle troposphere and low stratosphere over the areas well covered by the rawinsond observation net. Significant differences of the air temperature trend values are observed near the land surface and in the tropopause layer. The absolute value of the cooling rate of the tropical low stratosphere based on the rawinsond data is larger then that based on the reanalysis data. The presence of a positive trend in the low troposphere in the belt from ˜ 40N to ˜ 70N is evident in the two data sets. A comparative analysis of the trends for the both periods of observation shows that introducing satellite information in the reanalysis data resulted in an increase of the number of stations where the signs of the trend derived from the two sets of data coincide, especially in the southeastern part of Eurasia. The second part of the present study is related with another question. How do well climate model simulations match temperature observations throughout the atmosphere? Estimates of monthly-mean troposphere and stratospheric temperature trends over the past twenty years, from different hydrodynamical models (INM - model of Institute of Numerical Mathematics, RHMC - model of Hydrometeorological Center of Russia) are compared both with each other and with the observed trend analyses using aerological observations. We verified if the agreement is good between models and observations in term of cooling in the lower stratosphere and the tropospheric warming, which are strong indicators of climate change. Spatial inconsistencies between the observed and modelled vertical patterns of temperature change are identified. This work was partially supported by RFFI foundation N 03-05-64312, NATO grant EST.CLG.978911 and INTAS grant 03515296.

An assessment of historical Antarctic precipitation and temperature trend using CMIP5 models and reanalysis datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Malcolm S. Y.; Chenoli, Sheeba Nettukandy; Samah, Azizan Abu; Hai, Ooi See

2018-03-01

The study of Antarctic precipitation has attracted a lot of attention recently. The reliability of climate models in simulating Antarctic precipitation, however, is still debatable. This work assess the precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) of Antarctica (90 oS to 60 oS) using 49 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts "Interim" reanalysis (ERA-Interim); the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR); the Japan Meteorological Agency 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55); and the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) datasets for 1979-2005 (27 years). For precipitation, the time series show that the MERRA and JRA-55 have significantly increased from 1979 to 2005, while the ERA-Int and CFSR have insignificant changes. The reanalyses also have low correlation with one another (generally less than +0.69). 37 CMIP5 models show increasing trend, 18 of which are significant. The resulting CMIP5 MMM also has a significant increasing trend of 0.29 ± 0.06 mm year-1. For SAT, the reanalyses show insignificant changes and have high correlation with one another, while the CMIP5 MMM shows a significant increasing trend. Nonetheless, the variability of precipitation and SAT of MMM could affect the significance of its trend. One of the many reasons for the large differences of precipitation is the CMIP5 models' resolution.

Evolution of surface sensible heat over the Tibetan Plateau under the recent global warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Lihua; Huang, Gang; Fan, Guangzhou; Qu, Xia; Zhao, Guijie; Hua, Wei

2017-10-01

Based on regular surface meteorological observations and NCEP/DOE reanalysis data, this study investigates the evolution of surface sensible heat (SH) over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau (CE-TP) under the recent global warming hiatus. The results reveal that the SH over the CE-TP presents a recovery since the slowdown of the global warming. The restored surface wind speed together with increased difference in ground-air temperature contribute to the recovery in SH. During the global warming hiatus, the persistent weakening wind speed is alleviated due to the variation of the meridional temperature gradient. Meanwhile, the ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature show a significant increasing trend in that period caused by the increased total cloud amount, especially at night. At nighttime, the increased total cloud cover reduces the surface effective radiation via a strengthening of atmospheric counter radiation and subsequently brings about a clear upward trend in ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature. Cloud-radiation feedback plays a significant role in the evolution of the surface temperature and even SH during the global warming hiatus. Consequently, besides the surface wind speed, the difference in ground-air temperature becomes another significant factor for the variation in SH since the slowdown of global warming, particularly at night.

Improved Decadal Climate Prediction in the North Atlantic using EnOI-Assimilated Initial Condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Q.; Xin, X.; Wei, M.; Zhou, W.

2017-12-01

Decadal prediction experiments of Beijing Climate Center climate system model version 1.1(BCC-CSM1.1) participated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) had poor skill in extratropics of the North Atlantic, the initialization of which was done by relaxing modeled ocean temperature to the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis data. This study aims to improve the prediction skill of this model by using the assimilation technique in the initialization. New ocean data are firstly generated by assimilating the sea surface temperature (SST) of the Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) dataset to the ocean model of BCC-CSM1.1 via Ensemble Optimum Interpolation (EnOI). Then a suite of decadal re-forecasts launched annually over the period 1961-2005 is carried out with simulated ocean temperature restored to the assimilated ocean data. Comparisons between the re-forecasts and previous CMIP5 forecasts show that the re-forecasts are more skillful in mid-to-high latitude SST of the North Atlantic. Improved prediction skill is also found for the Atlantic multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), which is consistent with the better skill of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) predicted by the re-forecasts. We conclude that the EnOI assimilation generates better ocean data than the SODA reanalysis for initializing decadal climate prediction of BCC-CSM1.1 model.

Ecohydrological drought monitoring and prediction using a land data assimilation system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawada, Y.; Koike, T.

2017-12-01

Despite the importance of the ecological and agricultural aspects of severe droughts, few drought monitor and prediction systems can forecast the deficit of vegetation growth. To address this issue, we have developed a land data assimilation system (LDAS) which can simultaneously simulate soil moisture and vegetation dynamics. By assimilating satellite-observed passive microwave brightness temperature, which is sensitive to both surface soil moisture and vegetation water content, we can significantly improve the skill of a land surface model to simulate surface soil moisture, root zone soil moisture, and leaf area index (LAI). We run this LDAS to generate a global ecohydrological land surface reanalysis product. In this presentation, we will demonstrate how useful this new reanalysis product is to monitor and analyze the historical mega-droughts. In addition, using the analyses of soil moistures and LAI as initial conditions, we can forecast the ecological and hydrological conditions in the middle of droughts. We will present our recent effort to develop a near real time ecohydrological drought monitoring and prediction system in Africa by combining the LDAS and the atmospheric seasonal prediction.

Relating Radiative Fluxes on Arctic Sea Ice Area Using Arctic Observation and Reanalysis Integrated System (ArORIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sledd, A.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.

2017-12-01

With Arctic sea ice declining rapidly and Arctic temperatures rising faster than the rest of the globe, a better understanding of the Arctic climate, and ice cover-radiation feedbacks in particular, is needed. Here we present the Arctic Observation and Reanalysis Integrated System (ArORIS), a dataset of integrated products to facilitate studying the Arctic using satellite, reanalysis, and in-situ datasets. The data include cloud properties, radiative fluxes, aerosols, meteorology, precipitation, and surface properties, to name just a few. Each dataset has uniform grid-spacing, time-averaging and naming conventions for ease of use between products. One intended use of ArORIS is to assess Arctic radiation and moisture budgets. Following that goal, we use observations from ArORIS - CERES-EBAF radiative fluxes and NSIDC sea ice fraction and area to quantify relationships between the Arctic energy balance and surface properties. We find a discernable difference between energy budgets for years with high and low September sea ice areas. Surface fluxes are especially responsive to the September sea ice minimum in months both leading up to September and the months following. In particular, longwave fluxes at the surface show increased sensitivity in the months preceding September. Using a single-layer model of solar radiation we also investigate the individual responses of surface and planetary albedos to changes in sea ice area. By partitioning the planetary albedo into surface and atmospheric contributions, we find that the atmospheric contribution to planetary albedo is less sensitive to changes in sea ice area than the surface contribution. Further comparisons between observations and reanalyses can be made using the available datasets in ArORIS.

An improved hindcast approach for evaluation and diagnosis of physical processes in global climate models

DOE PAGES

Ma, H. -Y.; Chuang, C. C.; Klein, S. A.; ...

2015-11-06

Here, we present an improved procedure of generating initial conditions (ICs) for climate model hindcast experiments with specified sea surface temperature and sea ice. The motivation is to minimize errors in the ICs and lead to a better evaluation of atmospheric parameterizations' performance in the hindcast mode. We apply state variables (horizontal velocities, temperature and specific humidity) from the operational analysis/reanalysis for the atmospheric initial states. Without a data assimilation system, we apply a two-step process to obtain other necessary variables to initialize both the atmospheric (e.g., aerosols and clouds) and land models (e.g., soil moisture). First, we nudge onlymore » the model horizontal velocities towards operational analysis/reanalysis values, given a 6-hour relaxation time scale, to obtain all necessary variables. Compared to the original strategy in which horizontal velocities, temperature and specific humidity are nudged, the revised approach produces a better representation of initial aerosols and cloud fields which are more consistent and closer to observations and model's preferred climatology. Second, we obtain land ICs from an offline land model simulation forced with observed precipitation, winds, and surface fluxes. This approach produces more realistic soil moisture in the land ICs. With this refined procedure, the simulated precipitation, clouds, radiation, and surface air temperature over land are improved in the Day 2 mean hindcasts. Following this procedure, we propose a “Core” integration suite which provides an easily repeatable test allowing model developers to rapidly assess the impacts of various parameterization changes on the fidelity of modelled cloud-associated processes relative to observations.« less

An improved hindcast approach for evaluation and diagnosis of physical processes in global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, H.-Y.; Chuang, C. C.; Klein, S. A.; Lo, M.-H.; Zhang, Y.; Xie, S.; Zheng, X.; Ma, P.-L.; Zhang, Y.; Phillips, T. J.

2015-12-01

We present an improved procedure of generating initial conditions (ICs) for climate model hindcast experiments with specified sea surface temperature and sea ice. The motivation is to minimize errors in the ICs and lead to a better evaluation of atmospheric parameterizations' performance in the hindcast mode. We apply state variables (horizontal velocities, temperature, and specific humidity) from the operational analysis/reanalysis for the atmospheric initial states. Without a data assimilation system, we apply a two-step process to obtain other necessary variables to initialize both the atmospheric (e.g., aerosols and clouds) and land models (e.g., soil moisture). First, we nudge only the model horizontal velocities toward operational analysis/reanalysis values, given a 6 h relaxation time scale, to obtain all necessary variables. Compared to the original strategy in which horizontal velocities, temperature, and specific humidity are nudged, the revised approach produces a better representation of initial aerosols and cloud fields which are more consistent and closer to observations and model's preferred climatology. Second, we obtain land ICs from an off-line land model simulation forced with observed precipitation, winds, and surface fluxes. This approach produces more realistic soil moisture in the land ICs. With this refined procedure, the simulated precipitation, clouds, radiation, and surface air temperature over land are improved in the Day 2 mean hindcasts. Following this procedure, we propose a "Core" integration suite which provides an easily repeatable test allowing model developers to rapidly assess the impacts of various parameterization changes on the fidelity of modeled cloud-associated processes relative to observations.

Status and Preliminary Evaluation for Chinese Re-Analysis Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

bin, zhao; chunxiang, shi; tianbao, zhao; dong, si; jingwei, liu

2016-04-01

Based on operational T639L60 spectral model, combined with Hybird_GSI assimilation system by using meteorological observations including radiosondes, buoyes, satellites el al., a set of Chinese Re-Analysis (CRA) datasets is developing by Chinese National Meteorological Information Center (NMIC) of Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA). The datasets are run at 30km (0.28°latitude / longitude) resolution which holds higher resolution than most of the existing reanalysis dataset. The reanalysis is done in an effort to enhance the accuracy of historical synoptic analysis and aid to find out detailed investigation of various weather and climate systems. The current status of reanalysis is in a stage of preliminary experimental analysis. One-year forecast data during Jun 2013 and May 2014 has been simulated and used in synoptic and climate evaluation. We first examine the model prediction ability with the new assimilation system, and find out that it represents significant improvement in Northern and Southern hemisphere, due to addition of new satellite data, compared with operational T639L60 model, the effect of upper-level prediction is improved obviously and overall prediction stability is enhanced. In climatological analysis, compared with ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR and NCEP/DOE reanalyses, the results show that surface temperature simulates a bit lower in land and higher over ocean, 850-hPa specific humidity reflects weakened anomaly and the zonal wind value anomaly is focus on equatorial tropics. Meanwhile, the reanalysis dataset shows good ability for various climate index, such as subtropical high index, ESMI (East-Asia subtropical Summer Monsoon Index) et al., especially for the Indian and western North Pacific monsoon index. Latter we will further improve the assimilation system and dynamical simulating performance, and obtain 40-years (1979-2018) reanalysis datasets. It will provide a more comprehensive analysis for synoptic and climate diagnosis.

Is There Really an Intermittent Biennial Oscillation in the Great Plains Low-Level Jet Over Texas?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Helfand, H. Mark

2002-01-01

In the 15-year GEOS-1 reanalysis data set, a maximum of interannual variance of low- level meridional flow for the warm season (May through August) occurs over southeast Texas. This variance maximum seems to be dominated by a marked biennial oscillation that occurs only during the first 6 (or possibly 8) years of the reanalysis period (1980-85 or possibly 1980-1987) and then completely disappears by the 9th year. This biennial oscillation seems to be associated with interannual fluctuations in ground wetness, surface temperature and surface pressure gradients over Texas. The periods of drier soil lead to warmer surface temperatures, lower surface pressures, stronger pressure gradients between Texas and the Gulf of Mexico and stronger southerly winds. This intermittent biennial oscillation is also evident in corresponding fields for the the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set for the years 1978-1985 (and possibly from 1978- 1987) and 1995-2000, but not during other periods. There are also obvious biennial oscillations evident during these periods in U.S. Climate Division records for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for Texas. Month-by-month correlations of this index with certain el Nino related indices are as high as .45 for the first period and as high as .55 or .6 for the second period for some regions in Texas. The seasonal cycle of the biennial signal in the PDSI and precipitation for the first period suggest that the drought in Texas and Mexico is ended (caused) by a reversal in the sign of anomalies in precipitation rate for the fall/winter season. Analysis of tropical Pacific SST patterns shows a .5 to .75 K biennial oscillation of SSTs along the precipitation-free track to the southwest of the Mexican coast during the fall and winter months of the 1978 to 1985 period that might explain the reversal in precipitation anomalies and hence the entire intermittent biennial oscillation in ground hydrology and low-level flow.

Satellite-based estimation of cloud-base updrafts for convective clouds and stratocumulus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Y.; Rosenfeld, D.; Li, Z.

2017-12-01

Updraft speeds of thermals have always been notoriously difficult to measure, despite significant roles they play in transporting pollutants and in cloud formation and precipitation. To our knowledge, no attempt to date has been made to estimate updraft speed from satellite information. In this study, we introduce three methods of retrieving updraft speeds at cloud base () for convective clouds and marine stratocumulus with VIIRS onboard Suomi-NPP satellite. The first method uses ground-air temperature difference to characterize the surface sensible heat flux, which is found to be correlated with updraft speeds measured by the Doppler lidar over the Southern Great Plains (SGP). Based on the relationship, we use the satellite-retrieved surface skin temperature and reanalysis surface air temperature to estimate the updrafts. The second method is based on a good linear correlation between cloud base height and updrafts, which was found over the SGP, the central Amazon, and on board a ship sailing between Honolulu and Los Angeles. We found a universal relationship for both land and ocean. The third method is for marine stratocumulus. A statistically significant relationship between Wb and cloud-top radiative cooling rate (CTRC) is found from measurements over northeastern Pacific and Atlantic. Based on this relation, satellite- and reanalysis-derived CTRC is utilized to infer the Wb of stratocumulus clouds. Evaluations against ground-based Doppler lidar measurements show estimation errors of 24%, 21% and 22% for the three methods, respectively.

CWRF performance at downscaling China climate characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Xin-Zhong; Sun, Chao; Zheng, Xiaohui; Dai, Yongjiu; Xu, Min; Choi, Hyun I.; Ling, Tiejun; Qiao, Fengxue; Kong, Xianghui; Bi, Xunqiang; Song, Lianchun; Wang, Fang

2018-05-01

The performance of the regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model (CWRF) for downscaling China climate characteristics is evaluated using a 1980-2015 simulation at 30 km grid spacing driven by the ECMWF Interim reanalysis (ERI). It is shown that CWRF outperforms the popular Regional Climate Modeling system (RegCM4.6) in key features including monsoon rain bands, diurnal temperature ranges, surface winds, interannual precipitation and temperature anomalies, humidity couplings, and 95th percentile daily precipitation. Even compared with ERI, which assimilates surface observations, CWRF better represents the geographic distributions of seasonal mean climate and extreme precipitation. These results indicate that CWRF may significantly enhance China climate modeling capabilities.

Long-term variation of Surface Ozone, NO2, temperature and relative humidity on crop yield over Andhra Pradesh (AP), India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arunachalam, M. S.; Obili, Manjula; Srimurali, M.

2016-07-01

Long-term variation of Surface Ozone, NO2, Temperature, Relative humidity and crop yield datasets over thirteen districts of Andhra Pradesh(AP) has been studied with the help of OMI, MODIS, AIRS, ERA-Interim re-analysis and Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES) of AP. Inter comparison of crop yield loss estimates according to exposure metrics such as AOT40 (accumulated ozone exposure over a threshold of 40) and non-linear variation of surface temperature for twenty and eighteen varieties of two major crop growing seasons namely, kharif (April-September) and rabi (October-March), respectively has been made. Study is carried to establish a new crop-yield-exposure relationship for different crop cultivars of AP. Both ozone and temperature are showing a correlation coefficient of 0.66 and 0.87 with relative humidity; and 0.72 and 0.80 with NO2. Alleviation of high surface ozone results in high food security and improves the economy thereby reduces the induced warming of the troposphere caused by ozone. Keywords: Surface Ozone, NO2, Temperature, Relative humidity, Crop yield, AOT 40.

Downscaling reanalysis data to high-resolution variables above a glacier surface (Cordillera Blanca, Peru)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hofer, Marlis; Mölg, Thomas; Marzeion, Ben; Kaser, Georg

2010-05-01

Recently initiated observation networks in the Cordillera Blanca provide temporally high-resolution, yet short-term atmospheric data. The aim of this study is to extend the existing time series into the past. We present an empirical-statistical downscaling (ESD) model that links 6-hourly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to the local target variables, measured at the tropical glacier Artesonraju (Northern Cordillera Blanca). The approach is particular in the context of ESD for two reasons. First, the observational time series for model calibration are short (only about two years). Second, unlike most ESD studies in climate research, we focus on variables at a high temporal resolution (i.e., six-hourly values). Our target variables are two important drivers in the surface energy balance of tropical glaciers; air temperature and specific humidity. The selection of predictor fields from the reanalysis data is based on regression analyses and climatologic considerations. The ESD modelling procedure includes combined empirical orthogonal function and multiple regression analyses. Principal component screening is based on cross-validation using the Akaike Information Criterion as model selection criterion. Double cross-validation is applied for model evaluation. Potential autocorrelation in the time series is considered by defining the block length in the resampling procedure. Apart from the selection of predictor fields, the modelling procedure is automated and does not include subjective choices. We assess the ESD model sensitivity to the predictor choice by using both single- and mixed-field predictors of the variables air temperature (1000 hPa), specific humidity (1000 hPa), and zonal wind speed (500 hPa). The chosen downscaling domain ranges from 80 to 50 degrees west and from 0 to 20 degrees south. Statistical transfer functions are derived individually for different months and times of day (month/hour-models). The forecast skill of the month/hour-models largely depends on month and time of day, ranging from 0 to 0.8, but the mixed-field predictors generally perform better than the single-field predictors. At all time scales, the ESD model shows added value against two simple reference models; (i) the direct use of reanalysis grid point values, and (ii) mean diurnal and seasonal cycles over the calibration period. The ESD model forecast 1960 to 2008 clearly reflects interannual variability related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, but is sensitive to the chosen predictor type. So far, we have not assessed the performance of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data against other reanalysis products. The developed ESD model is computationally cheap and applicable wherever measurements are available for model calibration.

Web-based Reanalysis Intercomparison Tools (WRIT): Comparing Reanalyses and Observational data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Compo, G. P.; Smith, C. A.; Hooper, D. K.

2014-12-01

While atmospheric reanalysis datasets are widely used in climate science, many technical issues hinder comparing them to each other and to observations. The reanalysis fields are stored in diverse file architectures, data formats, and resolutions, with metadata, such as variable name and units, that also differ. Individual users have to download the fields, convert them to a common format, store them locally, change variable names, re-grid if needed, and convert units. Comparing reanalyses with observational datasets is difficult for similar reasons. Even if a dataset can be read via Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP) or a similar protocol, most of this work is still needed. All of these tasks take time, effort, and money. To overcome some of the obstacles in reanalysis intercomparison, our group at the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at the University of Colorado and affiliated colleagues at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division (ESRL/PSD) have created a set of Web-based Reanalysis Intercomparison Tools (WRIT) at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/writ/. WRIT allows users to easily plot and compare reanalysis and observational datasets, and to test hypotheses. Currently, there are tools to plot monthly mean maps and vertical cross-sections, timeseries, and trajectories for standard pressure level and surface variables. Users can refine dates, statistics, and plotting options. Reanalysis datasets currently available include the NCEP/NCAR R1, NCEP/DOE R2, MERRA, ERA-Interim, NCEP CFSR and the 20CR. Observational datasets include those containing precipitation (e.g. GPCP), temperature (e.g. GHCNCAMS), winds (e.g. WASWinds), precipitable water (e.g. NASA NVAP), SLP (HadSLP2), and SST (NOAA ERSST). WRIT also facilitates the mission of the Reanalyses.org website as a convenient toolkit for studying the reanalysis datasets.

Sensitivity of Crop Gross Primary Production Simulations to In-situ and Reanalysis Meteorological Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, C.; Xiao, X.; Wagle, P.

2014-12-01

Accurate estimation of crop Gross Primary Production (GPP) is important for food securityand terrestrial carbon cycle. Numerous publications have reported the potential of the satellite-based Production Efficiency Models (PEMs) to estimate GPP driven by in-situ climate data. Simulations of the PEMs often require surface reanalysis climate data as inputs, for example, the North America Regional Reanalysis datasets (NARR). These reanalysis datasets showed certain biases from the in-situ climate datasets. Thus, sensitivity analysis of the PEMs to the climate inputs is needed before their application at the regional scale. This study used the satellite-based Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM), which is driven by solar radiation (R), air temperature (T), and the satellite-based vegetation indices, to quantify the causes and degree of uncertainties in crop GPP estimates due to different meteorological inputs at the 8-day interval (in-situ AmeriFlux data and NARR surface reanalysis data). The NARR radiation (RNARR) explained over 95% of the variability in in-situ RAF and TAF measured from AmeriFlux. The bais of TNARR was relatively small. However, RNARR had a systematical positive bias of ~3.5 MJ m-2day-1 from RAF. A simple adjustment based on the spatial statistic between RNARR and RAF produced relatively accurate radiation data for all crop site-years by reducing RMSE from 4 to 1.7 MJ m-2day-1. The VPM-based GPP estimates with three climate datasets (i.e., in-situ, and NARR before and after adjustment, GPPVPM,AF, GPPVPM,NARR, and GPPVPM,adjNARR) showed good agreements with the seasonal dynamics of crop GPP derived from the flux towers (GPPAF). The GPPVPM,AF differed from GPPAF by 2% for maize, and -8% to -12% for soybean on the 8-day interval. The positive bias of RNARR resulted in an overestimation of GPPVPM,NARR at both maize and soybean systems. However, GPPVPM,adjNARR significantly reduced the uncertainties of the maize GPP from 25% to 2%. The results from this study revealed that the errors of the NARR surface reanalysis data introduced significant uncertainties of the PEMs-based GPP estimates. Therefore, it is important to develop more accurate radiation datasets at the regional and global scales to estimate gross and net primary production of terrestrial ecosystems at the regional and global scales.

Uncertainties and coupled error covariances in the CERA-20C, ECMWF's first coupled reanalysis ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xiangbo; Haines, Keith

2017-04-01

ECMWF has produced its first ensemble ocean-atmosphere coupled reanalysis, the 20th century Coupled ECMWF ReAnalysis (CERA-20C), with 10 ensemble members at 3-hour resolution. Here the analysis uncertainties (ensemble spread) of lower atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST), and their correlations, are quantified on diurnal, seasonal and longer timescales. The 2-m air temperature (T2m) spread is always larger than the SST spread at high-frequencies, but smaller on monthly timescales, except in deep convection areas, indicating increasing SST control at longer timescales. Spatially the T2m-SST ensemble correlations are the strongest where ocean mixed layers are shallow and can respond to atmospheric variability. Where atmospheric convection is strong with a deep precipitating boundary layer, T2m-SST correlations are greatly reduced. As the 20th-century progresses more observations become available, and ensemble spreads decline at all variability timescales. The T2m-SST correlations increase through the 20th-century, except in the tropics. As winds become better constrained over the oceans with less spread, T2m-SST become more correlated. In the tropics, strong ENSO-related inter-annual variability is found in the correlations, as atmospheric convection centres move. These ensemble spreads have been used to provide background errors for the assimilation throughout the reanalysis, have implications for the weights given to observations, and are a general measure of the uncertainties in the analysed product. Although cross boundary covariances are not currently used, they offer considerable potential for strengthening the ocean-atmosphere coupling in future reanalyses.

Evaluation of MERRAero (MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buchard, Virginie; da Silva, Arlindo; Randles, Cynthia; Colarco, Peter; Darmenov, Anton; Govindaraju, Ravi

2016-01-01

This presentation focuses on MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis (MERRAero) which is the first aerosol reanalysis produced at GMAO. This presentation involve an overview of MERRAero. The evaluation of MERRAero absorption and the evaluation of MERRAero Surface PM 2.5 will also be discussed.

Impact of land use/land cover change on changes in surface solar radiation in eastern China since the reform and opening up

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Cheng

2016-01-01

Observational evidence of the impacts of land use/land cover change (LULCC) on changes in surface solar radiation (SSR) in eastern China (EC) during 1979-2008 are identified by using diurnal temperature range as a proxy of SSR and by using observation minus reanalysis approach to disentangle these effects. For the period 1979-2008, the impact of LULCC is shown as a reduction in SSR in most stations in EC, whereas SSR in the reanalysis data has increased at nearly every location. The competition of the dimming effect of LULCC with the brightening effect in the reanalysis results in an observed dipole pattern of SSR with slightly decreasing (increasing) trends in most stations north (south) of the Yangtze River and statistically significant decreasing trends in central EC. In terms of EC area mean, this competition has resulted in a slightly dimming trend in the observed SSR during 1979-2008, although a transition from an apparent dimming to a general leveling off near 1990 is identified. For the period 1990-2008, LULCC has significantly reduced SSR in central EC and southern China. This dimming effect of LULCC competes with the apparent brightening effect in the reanalysis to result in the general leveling off in the observed SSR in terms of EC area mean and a sandwich spatial pattern in the observed SSR in EC where parts of central EC show significant dimming. The impact of LULCC on the changes in SSR may be through both biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes.

Spring snow albedo feedback in daily data over Russia: Comparing in-situ measurements with reanalysis products.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wegmann, M.; Zolina, O.; Jacobi, H. W.

2016-12-01

Global warming is enhanced at high northern latitudes where the Arctic surface air temperature has risen at twice the rate of the global average in recent decades - a feature called Arctic amplification. This recent Arctic warming signal likely results from several factors such as the albedo feedback due to a diminishing cryosphere, enhanced poleward atmospheric and oceanic heat transport, and changes in humidity. Surface albedo feedback is stating that the additional amount of shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere decreases with decreasing surface albedo whereas surface air temperature increases with decreasing surface albedo. It is considered a positive feedback in that an initial warming perturbation than kicks off a strengthening warming. Looking at the Northern Hemisphere with its large landmasses, snow albedo feedback is especially strong since most of these landmasses experience snow cover during boreal wintertime. Unfortunately, so far there remains a lack of reliable observational data over large parts of the cryosphere. Satellite products cover large parts of the NH, however lack high temporal resolution and have problems with large solar zenith angles as well as over complex terrain (eg. Wang et al. 2014). Our analysis focuses at the Russian territory where we utilize in-situ radiation and snow depth measurements. We found 50 stations which measure both variables on a daily basis for the period 2000-2013. Since Hall (2004) found that 50% of the notal NH snow albedo feedback caused by global warming occurs during NH spring, we focus on the transition period of March to June (MAMJ). Thackeray & Fletcher 2006 compared albedo feedback processes CMIP3 and CMIP5 model families and found while the models represent the feedback process accurately, there are still inherent biases and outdated parameterizations. Therefore we use the daily observations and state of the art reanalysis products to 1) evaluate reanalysis and model products in respect to radiation properties, 2) investigate snow albedo feedbacks on a daily scale during spring and 3) to suggest climate change signals over Russia in albedo feedback between 2000 - 2013 based on in-situ measurements.

Intercomparison of Air-Sea Fluxes in the Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buckley, J.; Weller, R. A.; Farrar, J. T.; Tandon, A.

2016-02-01

Heat and momentum exchange between the air and sea in the Bay of Bengal is an important driver of atmospheric convection during the Asian Monsoon. Warm sea surface temperatures resulting from salinity stratified shallow mixed layers trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms. In this study, we compare atmospheric reanalysis flux products to air-sea flux values calculated from shipboard observations from four cruises and an air-sea flux mooring in the Bay of Bengal as part of the Air-Sea Interactions in the Northern Indian Ocean (ASIRI) experiment. Comparisons with months of mooring data show that most long timescale reanalysis error arises from the overestimation of longwave and shortwave radiation. Ship observations and select data from the air-sea flux mooring reveals significant errors on shorter timescales (2-4 weeks) which are greatly influenced by errors in shortwave radiation and latent and sensible heat. During these shorter periods, the reanalyses fail to properly show sharp decreases in air temperature, humidity, and shortwave radiation associated with mesoscale convective systems. Simulations with the Price-Weller-Pinkel (PWP) model show upper ocean mixing and deepening mixed layers during these events that effect the long term upper ocean stratification. Mesoscale convective systems associated with cloudy skies and cold and dry air can reduce net heat into the ocean for minutes to a few days, significantly effecting air-sea heat transfer, upper ocean stratification, and ocean surface temperature and salinity.

Predictability of Subsurface Temperature and the AMOC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Y.; Schubert, S. D.

2013-12-01

GEOS 5 coupled model is extensively used for experimental decadal climate prediction. Understanding the limits of decadal ocean predictability is critical for making progress in these efforts. Using this model, we study the subsurface temperature initial value predictability, the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and its impacts on the global climate. Our approach is to utilize the idealized data assimilation technology developed at the GMAO. The technique 'replay' allows us to assess, for example, the impact of the surface wind stresses and/or precipitation on the ocean in a very well controlled environment. By running the coupled model in replay mode we can in fact constrain the model using any existing reanalysis data set. We replay the model constraining (nudging) it to the MERRA reanalysis in various fields from 1948-2012. The fields, u,v,T,q,ps, are adjusted towards the 6-hourly analyzed fields in atmosphere. The simulated AMOC variability is studied with a 400-year-long segment of replay integration. The 84 cases of 10-year hindcasts are initialized from 4 different replay cycles. Here, the variability and predictability are examined further by a measure to quantify how much the subsurface temperature and AMOC variability has been influenced by atmospheric forcing and by ocean internal variability. The simulated impact of the AMOC on the multi-decadal variability of the SST, sea surface height (SSH) and sea ice extent is also studied.

Consistency of Estimated Global Water Cycle Variations Over the Satellite Era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, F. R.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Roberts, J. B.; Reichle, R. H.; Adler, R.; Ricciardulli, L.; Berg, W.; Huffman, G. J.

2013-01-01

Motivated by the question of whether recent indications of decadal climate variability and a possible "climate shift" may have affected the global water balance, we examine evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability integrated over the global oceans and global land from three points of view-remotely sensed retrievals / objective analyses over the oceans, reanalysis vertically-integrated moisture convergence (MFC) over land, and land surface models forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation and near-surface meteorology. Because monthly variations in area-averaged atmospheric moisture storage are small and the global integral of moisture convergence must approach zero, area-integrated E-P over ocean should essentially equal precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET) over land (after adjusting for ocean and land areas). Our analysis reveals considerable uncertainty in the decadal variations of ocean evaporation when integrated to global scales. This is due to differences among datasets in 10m wind speed and near-surface atmospheric specific humidity (2m qa) used in bulk aerodynamic retrievals. Precipitation variations, all relying substantially on passive microwave retrievals over ocean, still have uncertainties in decadal variability, but not to the degree present with ocean evaporation estimates. Reanalysis MFC and P-ET over land from several observationally forced diagnostic and land surface models agree best on interannual variations. However, upward MFC (i.e. P-ET) reanalysis trends are likely related in part to observing system changes affecting atmospheric assimilation models. While some evidence for a low-frequency E-P maximum near 2000 is found, consistent with a recent apparent pause in sea-surface temperature (SST) rise, uncertainties in the datasets used here remain significant. Prospects for further reducing uncertainties are discussed. The results are interpreted in the context of recent climate variability (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Overturning), and efforts to distinguish these modes from longer-term trends.

Accuracy and precision of polar lower stratospheric temperatures from reanalyses evaluated from A-Train CALIOP and MLS, COSMIC GPS RO, and the equilibrium thermodynamics of supercooled ternary solutions and ice clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambert, Alyn; Santee, Michelle L.

2018-02-01

We investigate the accuracy and precision of polar lower stratospheric temperatures (100-10 hPa during 2008-2013) reported in several contemporary reanalysis datasets comprising two versions of the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA and MERRA-2), the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-I), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR). We also include the Goddard Earth Observing System model version 5.9.1 near-real-time analysis (GEOS-5.9.1). Comparisons of these datasets are made with respect to retrieved temperatures from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) temperatures, and independent absolute temperature references defined by the equilibrium thermodynamics of supercooled ternary solutions (STSs) and ice clouds. Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) observations of polar stratospheric clouds are used to determine the cloud particle types within the Aura MLS geometric field of view. The thermodynamic calculations for STS and the ice frost point use the colocated MLS gas-phase measurements of HNO3 and H2O. The estimated bias and precision for the STS temperature reference, over the 68 to 21 hPa pressure range, are 0.6-1.5 and 0.3-0.6 K, respectively; for the ice temperature reference, they are 0.4 and 0.3 K, respectively. These uncertainties are smaller than those estimated for the retrieved MLS temperatures and also comparable to GPS RO uncertainties (bias < 0.2 K, precision > 0.7 K) in the same pressure range. We examine a case study of the time-varying temperature structure associated with layered ice clouds formed by orographic gravity waves forced by flow over the Palmer Peninsula and compare how the wave amplitudes are reproduced by each reanalysis dataset. We find that the spatial and temporal distribution of temperatures below the ice frost point, and hence the potential to form ice polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) in model studies driven by the reanalyses, varies significantly because of the underlying differences in the representation of mountain wave activity. High-accuracy COSMIC temperatures are used as a common reference to intercompare the reanalysis temperatures. Over the 68-21 hPa pressure range, the biases of the reanalyses with respect to COSMIC temperatures for both polar regions fall within the narrow range of -0.6 K to +0.5 K. GEOS-5.9.1, MERRA, MERRA-2, and JRA-55 have predominantly cold biases, whereas ERA-I has a predominantly warm bias. NCEP-CFSR has a warm bias in the Arctic but becomes substantially colder in the Antarctic. Reanalysis temperatures are also compared with the PSC reference temperatures. Over the 68-21 hPa pressure range, the reanalysis temperature biases are in the range -1.6 to -0.3 K with standard deviations ˜ 0.6 K for the CALIOP STS reference, and in the range -0.9 to +0.1 K with standard deviations ˜ 0.7 K for the CALIOP ice reference. Comparisons of MLS temperatures with the PSC reference temperatures reveal vertical oscillations in the MLS temperatures and a significant low bias in MLS temperatures of up to 3 K.

A Comparison of Five Numerical Weather Prediction Analysis Climatologies in Southern High Latitudes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Connolley, William M.; Harangozo, Stephen A.

2001-01-01

In this paper, numerical weather prediction analyses from four major centers are compared-the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR), and The Met. Office (UKMO). Two of the series-ECMWF reanalysis (ERA) and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis (NNR)-are `reanalyses'; that is, the data have recently been processed through a consistent, modern analysis system. The other three-ABM, ECMWF operational (EOP), and UKMO-are archived from operational analyses.The primary focus in this paper is on the period of 1979-93, the period used for the reanalyses, and on climatology. However, ABM and NNR are also compared for the period before 1979, for which the evidence tends to favor NNR. The authors are concerned with basic variables-mean sea level pressure, height of the 500-hPa surface, and near-surface temperature-that are available from the basic analysis step, rather than more derived quantities (such as precipitation), which are available only from the forecast step.Direct comparisons against station observations, intercomparisons of the spatial pattern of the analyses, and intercomparisons of the temporal variation indicate that ERA, EOP, and UKMO are best for sea level pressure;that UKMO and EOP are best for 500-hPa height; and that none of the analyses perform well for near-surface temperature.

C-GLORSv5: an improved multipurpose global ocean eddy-permitting physical reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storto, Andrea; Masina, Simona

2016-11-01

Global ocean reanalyses combine in situ and satellite ocean observations with a general circulation ocean model to estimate the time-evolving state of the ocean, and they represent a valuable tool for a variety of applications, ranging from climate monitoring and process studies to downstream applications, initialization of long-range forecasts and regional studies. The purpose of this paper is to document the recent upgrade of C-GLORS (version 5), the latest ocean reanalysis produced at the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) that covers the meteorological satellite era (1980-present) and it is being updated in delayed time mode. The reanalysis is run at eddy-permitting resolution (1/4° horizontal resolution and 50 vertical levels) and consists of a three-dimensional variational data assimilation system, a surface nudging and a bias correction scheme. With respect to the previous version (v4), C-GLORSv5 contains a number of improvements. In particular, background- and observation-error covariances have been retuned, allowing a flow-dependent inflation in the globally averaged background-error variance. An additional constraint on the Arctic sea-ice thickness was introduced, leading to a realistic ice volume evolution. Finally, the bias correction scheme and the initialization strategy were retuned. Results document that the new reanalysis outperforms the previous version in many aspects, especially in representing the variability of global heat content and associated steric sea level in the last decade, the top 80 m ocean temperature biases and root mean square errors, and the Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation; slight worsening in the high-latitude salinity and deep ocean temperature emerge though, providing the motivation for further tuning of the reanalysis system. The dataset is available in NetCDF format at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.857995.

Projected change in characteristics of near surface temperature inversions for southeast Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Fei; Evans, Jason Peter; Di Luca, Alejandro; Jiang, Ningbo; Olson, Roman; Fita, Lluis; Argüeso, Daniel; Chang, Lisa T.-C.; Scorgie, Yvonne; Riley, Matt

2018-05-01

Air pollution has significant impacts on human health. Temperature inversions, especially near surface temperature inversions, can amplify air pollution by preventing convective movements and trapping pollutants close to the ground, thus decreasing air quality and increasing health issues. This effect of temperature inversions implies that trends in their frequency, strength and duration can have important implications for air quality. In this study, we evaluate the ability of three reanalysis-driven high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations to represent near surface inversions at 9 sounding sites in southeast Australia. Then we use outputs of 12 historical and future RCM simulations (each with three time periods: 1990-2009, 2020-2039, and 2060-2079) from the NSW/ACT (New South Wales/Australian Capital Territory) Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project to investigate changes in near surface temperature inversions. The results show that there is a substantial increase in the strength of near surface temperature inversions over southeast Australia which suggests that future inversions may intensify poor air quality events. Near surface inversions and their future changes have clear seasonal and diurnal variations. The largest differences between simulations are associated with the driving GCMs, suggesting that the large-scale circulation plays a dominant role in near surface inversion strengths.

Spatio-temporal interaction between absorbing aerosols and temperature: Correlation and causality based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dave, P.; Bhushan, M.; Venkataraman, C.

2016-12-01

Indian subcontinent, in particular, the Indo-gangetic plain (IGP) has witnessed large temperature anomalies (Ratnam et al., 2016) along with high emission of absorbing aerosols (AA) (Gazala, et al., 2005). The anomalous high temperature observed over this region may bear a relationship with high AA emissions. Different studies have been conducted to understand AA and temperature relationships (Turco et al., 1983; Hansen et al., 1997, 2005; Seinfeld 2008; Ramanathan et al. 2010b; Ban-Weiss et al., 2012). It was found that when the AA was injected in the lower- mid troposphere the surface air temperature increases while injection of AA at higher troposphere-lower stratosphere surface temperature decreases. These studies used simulation based results to establish link between AA and temperature (Hansen et al., 1997, 2005; Ban-Weiss et al., 2012). The current work focuses on identifying the causal influence of AA on temperature using observational and re-analysis data over Indian subcontinent using cross correlation (CCs) and Granger causality (GC) (Granger, 1969). Aerosol index (AI) from TOMS-OMI was used as index for AA while ERA-interim reanalysis data was used for temperature at varying altitude. Period of study was March-April-May-June (MAMJ) for years 1979-2015. CCs were calculated for all the atmospheric layers. In each layer nearby and distant pixels (>500 kms) with high CCs were identified using clustering technique. It was found that that AI and Temperature shows statistically significant cross-correlations for co-located and distant pixels and more prominently over IGP. The CCs fades away with higher altitudes. CCs analysis was followed by GC analysis to identify the lag over which AI can influence the Temperature. GC also supported the findings of CCs analysis. It is an early attempt to link persisting large temperature anomalies with absorbing aerosols and may help in identifying the role of absorbing aerosol in causing heat waves.

Large-scale circulation associated with moisture intrusions into the Arctic during winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, Cian; Caballero, Rodrigo; Svensson, Gunilla

2014-05-01

Observations during recent decades show that there is a greater near surface warming occurring in the Arctic, particularly during winter, than at lower latitudes. Understanding the mechanisms controlling surface temperature in the Arctic is therefore an important priority in climate research. The surface energy budget is a key proximate control on Arctic surface temperature. During winter, insolation is low or absent and the atmospheric boundary layer is typically very stable, limiting turbulent hear exchange, so that the surface energy budget is almost entirely governed by longwave radiation. The net surface longwave radiation (NetLW) at this time has a strikingly bimodal distribution: conditions oscillate between a 'radiatively clear' state with rapid surface heat loss and a "moist cloudy" state with NetLW ˜ 0 W m-2. Each state can persist for days or weeks at a time but transitions between them happen in a matter of hours. This distribution of NetLW has important implications for the Arctic climate, as even a small shift in the frequency of occupancy of each state would be enough to significantly affect the overall surface energy budget and thus winter sea ice thickness. The clear and cloudy states typically occur during periods of relatively high and low surface pressure respectively, suggesting a link with synoptic-scale dynamics. This suggestion is consistent with previous studies indicating that the formation of low-level and mid-level clouds over the Arctic Ocean is typically associated with cyclonic activity and passing frontal systems . More recent work has shown that intense filamentary moisture intrusion events are a common feature in the Arctic and can induce large episodic increases of longwave radiation into the surface. The poleward transport of water vapor across 70N during boreal winter is examined in the ERA-Interim reanalysis product and 16 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, focusing on intense moisture intrusion events. A total of 298 events are objectively identified between 1990 and 2010 in the reanalysis dataset, an average of 14 per season, accounting for 28% of the total poleward moisture transport across 70N. Composites of sea level pressure and potential temperature on the 2 potential vorticity unit surface during intrusions show a large-scale blocking pattern to the east of each basin, deflecting midlatitude cyclones and their associated moisture poleward. The interannual variability of intrusions is strongly correlated with variability in winter-mean surface downward longwave radiation and skin temperature averaged over the Arctic. The 16 CMIP5 models are validated with respect to the reanalysis dataset and a subset of 7 models is chosen as best representing intrusions. Intrusions in the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario (RCP8.5) from these 7 models are analyzed between 2060 and 2100. Positive trends in the moisture transported by intrusions are noted. The mechanisms behind these trends are examined in each of the models, dynamically and thermodynamically, with regard to the positioning of the storm track and climatological jets in a moistening atmosphere.

Empirical-statistical downscaling of reanalysis data to high-resolution air temperature and specific humidity above a glacier surface (Cordillera Blanca, Peru)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hofer, Marlis; MöLg, Thomas; Marzeion, Ben; Kaser, Georg

2010-06-01

Recently initiated observation networks in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) provide temporally high-resolution, yet short-term, atmospheric data. The aim of this study is to extend the existing time series into the past. We present an empirical-statistical downscaling (ESD) model that links 6-hourly National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis data to air temperature and specific humidity, measured at the tropical glacier Artesonraju (northern Cordillera Blanca). The ESD modeling procedure includes combined empirical orthogonal function and multiple regression analyses and a double cross-validation scheme for model evaluation. Apart from the selection of predictor fields, the modeling procedure is automated and does not include subjective choices. We assess the ESD model sensitivity to the predictor choice using both single-field and mixed-field predictors. Statistical transfer functions are derived individually for different months and times of day. The forecast skill largely depends on month and time of day, ranging from 0 to 0.8. The mixed-field predictors perform better than the single-field predictors. The ESD model shows added value, at all time scales, against simpler reference models (e.g., the direct use of reanalysis grid point values). The ESD model forecast 1960-2008 clearly reflects interannual variability related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation but is sensitive to the chosen predictor type.

Sensitivity of amplitude-phase characteristics of the surface air temperature annual cycle to variations in annual mean temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliseev, A. V.; Mokhov, I. I.; Guseva, M. S.

2006-05-01

The ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR data over 1958 1998 were used to estimate the sensitivity of amplitude-phase characteristics (APCs) of the annual cycle (AC) of the surface air temperature (SAT) T s. The results were compared with outputs of the ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM3, and INM RAS general circulation models and the IAP RAS climate model of intermediate complexity, which were run with variations in greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol specified over 1860 2100. The analysis was performed in terms of the linear regression coefficients b of SAT AC APCs on the local annual mean temperature and in terms of the sensitivity characteristic D = br 2, which takes into account not only the linear regression coefficient but also its statistical significance (via the correlation coefficient r). The reanalysis data were used to reveal the features of the tendencies of change in the SAT AC APCs in various regions, including areas near the snow-ice boundary, storm-track ocean regions, large desert areas, and the tropical Pacific. These results agree with earlier observations. The model computations are in fairly good agreement with the reanalysis data in regions of statistically significant variations in SAT AC APCs. The differences between individual models and the reanalysis data can be explained, in particular, in terms of the features of the sea-ice schemes used in the models. Over the land in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, the absolute values of D for the fall phase time and the interval of exceeding exhibit a positive intermodel correlation with the absolute value of D for the annual-harmonic amplitude. Over the ocean, the models reproducing larger (in modulus) sensitivity parameters of the SAT annual-harmonic amplitude are generally characterized by larger (in modulus) negative sensitivity values of the semiannual-harmonic amplitude T s, 2, especially at latitudes characteristic of the sea-ice boundary. In contrast to the averaged fields of AC APCs and their interannual standard deviations, the sensitivity parameters of the SAT AC APCs on a regional scale vary noticeably for various types of anthropogenic forcing.

Empirical downscaling of atmospheric key variables above a tropical glacier surface (Cordillera Blanca, Peru)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hofer, M.; Kaser, G.; Mölg, T.; Juen, I.; Wagnon, P.

2009-04-01

Glaciers in the outer tropical Cordillera Blanca (Peru, South America) are of major socio-economic importance, since glacier runoff represents the primary water source during the dry season, when little or no rainfall occurs. Due to their location at high elevations, the glaciers moreover provide important information about climate change in the tropical troposphere, where measurements are sparse. This study targets the local reconstruction of air temperature, specific humidity and wind speed above the surface of an outer tropical glacier from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data as large scale predictors. Since a farther scope is to provide input data for process based glacier mass balance modelling, the reconstruction pursues a high temporal resolution. Hence an empirical downscaling scheme is developed, based on a few years' time series of hourly observations from automatic weather stations, located at the glacier Artesonraju and nearby moraines (Northern Cordillera Blanca). Principal component and multiple regression analyses are applied to define the appropriate spatial downscaling domain, suitable predictor variables, and the statistical transfer functions. The model performance is verified using an independent data set. The best predictors are lower tropospheric air temperature and specific humidity, at reanalysis model grid points that represent the Bolivian Altiplano, located in the South of the Cordillera Blanca. The developed downscaling model explaines a considerable portion (more than 60%) of the diurnal variance of air temperature and specific humidity at the moraine stations, and air temperature above the glacier surface. Specific humidity above the glacier surface, however, can be reconstructed well in the seasonal, but not in the required diurnal time resolution. Wind speed can only be poorly determined by the large scale predictors (r² lower than 0.3) at both sites. We assume a complex local interaction between valley and glacier wind system to be the main cause for the differences between model and observations.

Comparing AIRS/AMSU-A Satellite and MERRA/MERRA-2 Reanalysis products with In-situ Station Observations at Summit, Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hearty, T. J., III; Vollmer, B.; Wei, J. C.; Huwe, P. M.; Albayrak, A.; Wu, D. L.; Cullather, R. I.; Meyer, D. L.; Lee, J. N.; Blaisdell, J. M.; Susskind, J.; Nowicki, S.

2017-12-01

The surface air and skin temperatures reported by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and MERRA-2 at Summit, Greenland are compared with near surface air temperatures measured at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net) weather stations. Therefore this investigation requires familiarity with a heterogeneous set of swath, grid, and point data in several different formats, different granularity, and different sampling. We discuss the current subsetting capabilities available at the GES DISC (Goddard Earth Sciences Data Information Services Center) to perform the inter-comparisons necessary to evaluate the quality and trustworthiness of these datasets. We also explore potential future services which may assist users with this type of intercomparison. We find the AIRS Surface Skin Temperature (TS) is best correlated with the NOAA 2 m air temperature (T2M) but it tends to be colder than the station measurements. The difference may be the result of the frequent near surface temperature inversions in the region. The AIRS Surface Air Temperature (SAT) is also well correlated with the NOAA T2M but it has a warm bias with respect to the NOAA T2M during the cold season and a larger standard error than surface temperature. This suggests that the extrapolation of the temperature profile to the surface is not valid for the strongest inversions. Comparing the temperature lapse rate derived from the 2 stations shows that the lapse rate can increase closer to the surface. We also find that the difference between the AIRS SAT and TS is sensitive to near surface inversions. The MERRA-2 surface and near surface temperatures show improvements over MERRA but little sensitivity to near surface temperature inversions.

Four-dimensional variational Ocean ReAnalysis for the Western North Pacific over 30 years (FORA-WNP30)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirose, N.; Takatsuki, Y.; Usui, N.; Wakamatsu, T.; Tanaka, Y.; Toyoda, T.; Nishikawa, S.; Fujii, Y.; Igarashi, H.; Nishikawa, H.; Ishikawa, Y.; Kuragano, T.; Kamachi, M.

2016-12-01

An ocean reanalysis, FORA-WNP30, was produced by the collaborative work of Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA/MRI) and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC). A state-of-the-art 4-dimensional variational ocean data assimilation system, MOVE-4DVAR (Usui et al., 2015) was used. The calculation for the reanalysis, with the horizontal resolution of 0.1 degree (about 10 km) and the period between 1 January 1982 and 31 December 2014, was carried out on the Earth Simulator with the support of JAMSTEC. The model forcing is derived from the JRA-55 atmospheric reanalysis product. In-situ temperature and salinity profiles above 1500m-depth, satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) data are assimilated in FORA-WNP30.Using the current observations obtained by the Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) installed in two JMA research vessels, we validate the current (velocity) field in FORA-WNP30 and MOVE-3DVAR system, the latter of which is an operational ocean data assimilation system in JMA. The ADCP current data are independent because they are not assimilated in both systems. The current fields at 100-m depth during 2001-2012, in both of FORA-WNP30 and MOVE-3DVAR show high correlation with ADCP observation in the south of Japan, the East China Sea and the Kuroshio extension region, and relatively low correlation in the Japan Sea and the Oyashio region. The correlation coefficients of current speed for FORA-WNP30 are higher than those for MOVE-3DVAR in all regions.FORA-WNP30 successfully reproduces not only the major ocean current such as the Kuroshio and Oyashio, but also the associated meso-scale phenomena such as eddies, fronts, and meanders. In addition, it replicates the Kuroshio large meander events and the strong intrusion event of the Oyashio in 1980s, in spite of no satellite altimeter data for this period. Therefore, FORA-WNP30 is a valuable dataset for use in a variety of oceanographic process study and related fields such as climate study, meteorology, and fisheries.

Global reanalyses over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean: Can they be used prior to 1979?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bromwich, D. H.; Nicolas, J. P.

2017-12-01

High southern latitudes are a notoriously challenging area for global reanalyses, largely due to the scarcity of conventional observations in these regions. This lack of observational constraint not only reduces the reanalysis model forecast skill, but is also responsible for artifacts in their time series tied to changes in the observing system. For example, the introduction of new satellite observations (e.g., AMSU in 1998) is now a well-documented cause of widespread spurious changes in the reanalysis moisture and temperature fields, which are often exacerbated over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. This lack of temporal consistency has significantly reduced the reliability of some reanalysis products and their suitability for trend analysis. Century-long reanalysis efforts such as 20CR and ERA-20C, which only assimilate surface pressure observations, have provided ways to achieve greater homogeneity in the observing system through time and (potentially) produce more temporally consistent datasets, particularly across 1979 and the onset of the modern satellite era. However, important issues quickly became apparent in these reanalyses, related in particular to the handling by their data assimilation systems of the near-complete absence of observations poleward of 50°S prior to the 1950s, or to the prescription of ocean boundary conditions (sea ice, SST) prior to 1979. Because of the data scarcity, comparing reanalyses with each other is one of the primary means to assess their reliability. As such, the release of the CERA-20C and ERA5 (partially) by ECMWF in 2017 provides an opportunity to reassess the skill of recent global reanalyses in high southern latitudes and take stock of the recent improvements and remaining challenges, particularly with regard to their use for long-term climate change studies. Our comparison will include both satellite-era comprehensive reanalyses (ERA-Interim, CFSR, MERRA2, JRA-55, and ERA5) and century-long limited reanalyses (20CR, ERA-20C, and CERA-20C). The focus will be placed on key climate variables such as sea level pressure, near-surface temperature, and precipitation.

Comparison of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes over the Tibetan Plateau from reanalysis and observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Jin; Yu, Ye; Li, Jiang-lin; Ge, Jun; Liu, Chuan

2018-02-01

Surface sensible and latent heat fluxes (SH and LE) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have been under research since 1950s, especially for recent several years, by mainly using observation, reanalysis, and satellite data. However, the spatiotemporal changes are not consistent among different studies. This paper focuses on the spatiotemporal variation of SH and LE over the TP from 1981 to 2013 using reanalysis data sets (ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA) and observations. Results show that the spatiotemporal changes from the three reanalysis data sets are significantly different and the probable causes are discussed. Averaged for the whole TP, both SH and LE from MERRA are obviously higher than the other two reanalysis data sets. ERA-Interim shows a significant downward trend for SH and JRA-55 shows a significant increase of LE during the 33 years with other data sets having no obvious changes. By comparing the heat fluxes and some climate factors from the reanalysis with observations, it is found that the differences of heat fluxes among the three reanalysis data sets are closely related to their differences in meteorological conditions as well as the different parameterizations for surface transfer coefficients. In general, the heat fluxes from the three reanalysis have a better representation in the western TP than that in the eastern TP under inter-annual scale. While in terms of monthly variation, ERA-Interim may have better applicability in the eastern TP with dense vegetation conditions, while SH of JRA-55 and LE of MERRA are probably more representative for the middle and western TP with poor vegetation conditions.

Understanding Arctic surface temperature differences in reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cullather, R. I.; Zhao, B.; Shuman, C. A.; Nowicki, S.

2017-12-01

Reanalyses in the Arctic are widely used for model evaluation and for understanding contemporary climate change. Nevertheless, differences among reanalyses in fundamental meteorological variables including surface air temperature are large. For example, the 1980-2009 mean surface air temperature for the north polar cap (70°N-90°N) among global reanalyses span a range of 2.4 K, which approximates the average warming trend from these reanalyses over the 30-year period of 2.1 K. Understanding these differences requires evaluation over the three principal surface domains of the Arctic: glaciated land, the unglaciated terrestrial surface, and sea ice/ocean. An examination is conducted of contemporary global reanalyses of the ECMWF Interim project, NASA MERRA, MERRA-2, JRA-55, and NOAA CFSR using available in situ data and assessments of the surface energy budget. Overly-simplistic representations of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface are found to be associated with local warm air temperature biases in winter. A review of progress made in the development of the MERRA-2 land-ice representation is presented. Large uncertainty is also found in temperatures over the Arctic tundra and boreal forest zone. But a key focus of temperature differences for northern high latitudes is the Arctic Ocean. Near-surface air temperature differences over the Arctic Ocean are found to be related to discrepancies in sea ice and sea surface temperature boundary data, which are severely compromised in current reanalyses. Issues with the modeled representation of sea ice cover are an additional factor in reanalysis temperature trends. Differences in the representation of the surface energy budget among the various reanalyses are also reviewed.

Understanding Arctic Surface Temperature Differences in Reanalyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cullather, Richard; Zhao, Bin; Shuman, Christopher; Nowicki, Sophie

2017-01-01

Reanalyses in the Arctic are widely used for model evaluation and for understanding contemporary climate change. Nevertheless, differences among reanalyses in fundamental meteorological variables including surface air temperature are large. For example, the 1980-2009 mean surface air temperature for the north polar cap (70ÂdegN-90ÂdegN) among global reanalyses span a range of 2.4 K, which approximates the average warming trend from these reanalyses over the 30-year period of 2.1 K. Understanding these differences requires evaluation over the three principal surface domains of the Arctic: glaciated land, the unglaciated terrestrial surface, and sea ice/ocean. An examination is conducted of contemporary global reanalyses of the ECMWF Interim project, NASA MERRA, MERRA-2, JRA-55, and NOAA CFSR using available in situ data and assessments of the surface energy budget. Overly-simplistic representations of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface are found to be associated with local warm air temperature biases in winter. A review of progress made in the development of the MERRA-2 land-ice representation is presented. Large uncertainty is also found in temperatures over the Arctic tundra and boreal forest zone. But a key focus of temperature differences for northern high latitudes is the Arctic Ocean. Near-surface air temperature differences over the Arctic Ocean are found to be related to discrepancies in sea ice and sea surface temperature boundary data, which are severely compromised in current reanalyses. Issues with the modeled representation of sea ice cover are an additional factor in reanalysis temperature trends. Differences in the representation of the surface energy budget among the various reanalyses are also reviewed.

Regional Climate Simulations over North America: Interaction of Local Processes with Improved Large-Scale Flow.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Robock, Alan

2005-04-01

The reasons for biases in regional climate simulations were investigated in an attempt to discern whether they arise from deficiencies in the model parameterizations or are due to dynamical problems. Using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) forced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis, the detailed climate over North America at 50-km resolution for June 2000 was simulated. First, the RAMS equations were modified to make them applicable to a large region, and its turbulence parameterization was corrected. The initial simulations showed large biases in the location of precipitation patterns and surface air temperatures. By implementing higher-resolution soil data, soil moisture and soil temperature initialization, and corrections to the Kain-Fritch convective scheme, the temperature biases and precipitation amount errors could be removed, but the precipitation location errors remained. The precipitation location biases could only be improved by implementing spectral nudging of the large-scale (wavelength of 2500 km) dynamics in RAMS. This corrected for circulation errors produced by interactions and reflection of the internal domain dynamics with the lateral boundaries where the model was forced by the reanalysis.

Japanese 25-year reanalysis (JRA-25)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohkawara, Nozomu

2006-12-01

A long term global atmospheric reanalysis Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) which covers from 1979 to 2004 was completed using the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) numerical assimilation and forecast system. This is the first long term reanalysis undertaken in Asia. JMA's latest numerical assimilation system, and observational data collected as much as possible, were used in JRA-25 to generate a consistent and high quality reanalysis dataset to contribute to climate research and operational work. One purpose of JRA-25 is to enhance to a high quality the analysis in the Asian region. 6-hourly data assimilation cycles were performed and produced 6-hourly atmospheric analysis and forecast fields with various kinds of physical variables. The global model used in JRA-25 has a spectral resolution of T106 (equivalent to a horizontal grid size of around 120km) and 40 vertical layers with the top level at 0.4hPa. For observational data, a great deal of satellite data was used in addition to conventional surface and upper air data. Atmospheric Motion Vector (AMV) data retrieved from geostationary satellites, brightness temperature (TBB) data from TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS), precipitable water retrieved from radiance of microwave radiometer from orbital satellites and some other satellite data were assimilated with 3-dimensional variational method (3DVAR). Many advantages have been found in the JRA-25 reanalysis. Firstly, forecast 6-hour global total precipitation in JRA-25 performs well, distribution and amount are properly represented both in space and time. JRA-25 has the best performance compared to other reanalysis with respect to time series of global precipitation over many years, with few unrealistic variations caused by degraded quality of satellite data due to volcanic eruptions. Secondly, JRA-25 is the first reanalysis which assimilated wind profiles surrounding tropical cyclones retrieved from historical best track information; tropical cyclones were analyzed correctly in all the global regions. Additionally, low-level cloud along the subtropical western coast of continents is forecast very accurately, and snow depth analysis is also good.

A cross-assessment of CCI-ECVs and RCSM simulations over the Mediterranean area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Errico, Miriam; Planton, Serge; Nabat, Pierre

2017-04-01

A first objective of this study, conducted in the framework of the Climate Modelling Users Group (CMUG), one of the projects of the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) program, is a cross-assessment of simulations of a Med-CORDEX regional climate system model (CNRM-RCSM5) and a sub-set of atmosphere, marine and surface interrelated Satellite-Derived Essential Climate Variables (CCI-ECVs) (i.e. sea surface temperature, sea level, aerosols and soil moisture content) over the Mediterranean area. The consistency between the model and the CCI-ECVs is evaluated through the analysis of a climate specific event that can be observed with the CCI-ECVs, in atmospheric reanalysis and reproduced in the RCSM simulations. In this presentation we focus on the July 2006 heat wave that affected the western part of the Mediterranean continental and marine area. The application of a spectral nudging method using ERA-Interim reanalysis in our simulation allows to reproduce this event with a proper chronology. As a result we show that the consistency between the simulated model aerosol optical depth and the ECV products (being produced by the ESA Aerosol CCI project consortium) depends on the choice of the algorithm used to infer the variable from the satellite observations. In particular the heat wave main characteristics become consistent between the model and the satellite-derived observations for sea surface temperature, soil moisture and sea level. The link between the atmospheric circulation and the aerosols distribution is also investigated.

The 30-60-day Intraseasonal Variability of Sea Surface Temperature in the South China Sea dur1ing May-September

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Jiangyu; Wang, Ming

2018-05-01

This study investigates the structure and propagation of intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the South China Sea (SCS) on the 30-60-day timescale during boreal summer (May-September). TRMM-based SST, GODAS oceanic reanalysis and ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis datasets from 1998 to 2013 are used to examine quantitatively the atmospheric thermodynamic and oceanic dynamic mechanisms responsible for its formation. Power spectra show that the 30-60-day SST variability is predominant, accounting for 60% of the variance of the 10-90-day variability over most of the SCS. Composite analyses demonstrate that the 30-60-day SST variability is characterized by the alternate occurrence of basin-wide positive and negative SST anomalies in the SCS, with positive (negative) SST anomalies accompanied by anomalous northeasterlies (southwesterlies). The transition and expansion of SST anomalies are driven by the monsoonal trough-ridge seesaw pattern that migrates northward from the equator to the northern SCS. Quantitative diagnosis of the composite mixed-layer heat budgets shows that, within a strong 30-60-day cycle, the atmospheric thermal forcing is indeed a dominant factor, with the mixed-layer net heat flux (MNHF) contributing around 60% of the total SST tendency, while vertical entrainment contributes more than 30%. However, the entrainment-induced SST tendency is sometimes as large as the MNHF-induced component, implying that ocean processes are sometimes as important as surface fluxes in generating the 30-60-day SST variability in the SCS.

Ocean heat content variability in an ensemble of twentieth century ocean reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Boisséson, Eric; Balmaseda, Magdalena Alonso; Mayer, Michael

2017-08-01

This paper presents a ten-member ensemble of twentieth century Ocean ReAnalyses called ORA-20C. ORA-20C assimilates temperature and salinity profiles and is forced by the ECMWF twentieth century atmospheric reanalysis (ERA-20C) over the 1900-2010 period. This study attempts to identify robust signals of ocean heat content change in ORA-20C and detect contamination by model errors, initial condition uncertainty, surface fluxes and observing system changes. It is shown that ORA-20C trends and variability in the first part of the century result from the surface fluxes and model drift towards a warmer mean state and weak meridional overturning circulation. The impact of the observing system in correcting the mean state causes the deceleration of the warming trend and alters the long-term climate signal. The ensemble spread reflects the long-lasting memory of the initial conditions and the convergence of the system to a solution compatible with surface fluxes, the ocean model and observational constraints. Observations constrain the ocean heat uptake trend in the last decades of the twentieth century, which is similar to trend estimations from the post-satellite era. An ocean heat budget analysis attributes ORA-20C heat content changes to surface fluxes in the first part of the century. The heat flux variability reflects spurious signals stemming from ERA-20C surface fields, which in return result from changes in the atmospheric observing system. The influence of the temperature assimilation increments on the heat budget is growing with time. Increments control the most recent ocean heat uptake signals, highlighting imbalances in forced reanalysis systems in the ocean as well as in the atmosphere.

Estimating Planetary Boundary Layer Heights from NOAA Profiler Network Wind Profiler Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molod, Andrea M.; Salmun, H.; Dempsey, M

2015-01-01

An algorithm was developed to estimate planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights from hourly archived wind profiler data from the NOAA Profiler Network (NPN) sites located throughout the central United States. Unlike previous studies, the present algorithm has been applied to a long record of publicly available wind profiler signal backscatter data. Under clear conditions, summertime averaged hourly time series of PBL heights compare well with Richardson-number based estimates at the few NPN stations with hourly temperature measurements. Comparisons with clear sky reanalysis based estimates show that the wind profiler PBL heights are lower by approximately 250-500 m. The geographical distribution of daily maximum PBL heights corresponds well with the expected distribution based on patterns of surface temperature and soil moisture. Wind profiler PBL heights were also estimated under mostly cloudy conditions, and are generally higher than both the Richardson number based and reanalysis PBL heights, resulting in a smaller clear-cloudy condition difference. The algorithm presented here was shown to provide a reliable summertime climatology of daytime hourly PBL heights throughout the central United States.

How Accurate is Land/Ocean Moisture Transport Variability in Reanalyses?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, F. R.; Bosilovich, M. G.

2014-01-01

Quantifying the global hydrological cycle and its variability across various time scales remains a challenge to the climate community. Direct measurements of evaporation (E), evapotranspiration (ET), and precipitation (P) are not feasible on a global scale, nor is the transport of water vapor over the global oceans and sparsely populated land areas. Expanding satellite data streams have enabled development of various water (and energy) flux products, complementing reanalyses and facilitating observationally constrained modeling. But the evolution of the global observing system has produced additional complications--improvements in satellite sensor resolution and accuracy have resulted in "epochs" of observational quasi-uniformity that can adversely affect reanalysis trends. In this work we focus on vertically integrated moisture flux convergence (VMFC) variations within the period 1979 - present integrated over global land. We show that VMFC in recent reanalyses (e.g. ERA-I, NASA MERRA, NOAA CFSR and JRA55) suffers from observing system changes, though differently in each product. Land Surface Models (LSMs) forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation and near-surface meteorology share closely the interannual P-ET variations of the reanalyses associated with ENSO events. (VMFC over land and P-ET estimates are equivalent quantities since atmospheric storage changes are small on these scales.) But the long-term LSM trend over the period since 1979 is approximately one-fourth that of the reanalyses. Additional reduced observation reanalyses assimilating only surface pressure and /or specifying seasurface temperature also have a much smaller trend in P-ET like the LSMs. We explore the regional manifestation of the reanalysis P-ET / VMFC problems, particularly over land. Both principal component analysis and a simple time series changepoint analysis highlight problems associated with data poor regions such as Equatorial Africa and, for one reanalysis, the Equatorial Andes region. Onset of the availability of passive microwave Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) moisture data in July 1987 and the transition from the Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU) to an advanced version (AMSU) have significant impacts on VMFC variability. Simple accounting for these errors of leading importance results in modified reanalysis VMFC estimates that agree much better with the LSM results. Regional details of the modified reanalysis VMFC and LSM P-ET are related to changes in Pacific Decadal Variability as manifest in SST changes after the late 1990s.

The Mediterranean interannual variability in MEDRYS, a Mediterranean Sea reanalysis over 1992-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beuvier, Jonathan; Hamon, Mathieu; Lellouche, Jean-Michel; Greiner, Eric; Alias, Antoinette; Arsouze, Thomas; Benkiran, Mounir; Béranger, Karine; Drillet, Yann; Sevault, Florence; Somot, Samuel

2015-04-01

The French research community on the Mediterranean Sea and the French operational ocean forecasting center Mercator Océan are gathering their skills and expertises in physical oceanography, ocean modelling, atmospheric forcings and data assimilation, to carry out a MEDiterranean Sea ReanalYsiS (MEDRYS) at high resolution for the period 1992-2013. The reanalysis is used to have a realistic description of the ocean state over the recent decades and it will help to understand the long-term water cycle over the Mediterranean basin in terms of variability and trends, contributing thus to the HyMeX international program. The ocean model used is NEMOMED12 [Lebeaupin Brossier et al., 2011, Oc. Mod., 2012, Oc. Mod.; Beuvier et al., 2012a, JGR, 2012b, Mercator Newsl.], a Mediterranean configuration of NEMO [Madec and the NEMO Team, 2008], with a 1/12° (about 7 km) horizontal resolution and 75 vertical z-levels with partial steps. It is forced by the 3-hourly atmospheric fluxes coming from an ALADIN-Climate simulation at 12 km of resolution [Herrmann et al., 2011, NHESS], driven by the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis. The exchanges with the Atlantic Ocean are performed through a buffer zone, with a damping on 3D theta-S and on sea level towards the ORA-S4 oceanic reanalysis [Balmaseda et al., 2012, QJRMS]. This model configuration is used to carry a 34-year free simulation over the period 1979-2013. This free simulation is the initial state of the reanalysis in October 1992. It is also used to compute anomalies from which the data assimilation scheme derives required characteristic covariances of the ocean model. MEDRYS1 uses the current Mercator Océan operational data assimilation system [Lellouche et al., 2013, Oc.Sci.]. It uses a reduced order Kalman filter with a 3D multivariate modal decomposition of the forecast error. A 3D-Var scheme corrects biases in temperature and salinity for the slowly evolving large-scale. In addition, some modifications dedicated to the Mediterranean area (more specific Post-Glacial-Rebound corrections, new model-equivalent for the Sea Level Anomaly for example) have been introduced. Temperature and salinity vertical profiles from the newly released CORA4 database, altimeter data and satellite SST and are jointly assimilated. Thus, the reanalysis benefits from the intensive observational field campaigns carried out during the HyMeX Special Observation Periods (SOPs) in fall 2012 and winter 2013 in the north-western Mediterranean Sea. We assess here the ability of a MEDRYS1 to reproduce the general circulation and the water masses in the Mediterranean Sea. We present the misfit between the reanalysis and the assimilated observations, as well as differences between the reanalysis and its twin free simulation. We show diagnostics on the surface circulation variability, heat and salt contents and deep water formation over the whole period of the reanalysis, with also a focus on the impact of the HyMeX data during the SOPs time period.

Evaluation of reanalysis near-surface winds over northern Africa in Boreal summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engelstaedter, Sebastian; Washington, Richard

2014-05-01

The emission of dust from desert surfaces depends on the combined effects of surface properties such as surface roughness, soil moisture, soil texture and particle size (erodibility) and wind speed (erosivity). In order for dust cycle models to realistically simulate dust emissions for the right reasons, it is essential that erosivity and erodibility controlling factors are represented correctly. There has been a focus on improving dust emission schemes or input fields of soil distribution and texture even though it has been shown that the use of wind fields from different reanalysis datasets to drive the same model can result in significant differences in the dust emissions. Here we evaluate the representation of near-surface wind speed from three different reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, CFSR and MERRA) over the North African domain. Reanalysis 10m wind speeds are compared with observations from SYNOP and METAR reports available from the UK Meteorological Office Integrated Data Archive System (MIDAS) Land and Marine Surface Stations Dataset. We compare 6-hourly observations of 10m wind speed between 1 January 1989 and 31 December 2009 from more the 500 surface stations with the corresponding reanalysis values. A station data based mean wind speed climatology for North Africa is presented. Overall, the representation of 10m winds is relatively poor in all three reanalysis datasets with stations in the northern parts of the Sahara still being better simulated (correlation coefficients ~ 0.5) than stations in the Sahel (correlation coefficients < 0.3) which points at the reanalyses not being able to realistically capture the Sahel dynamics systems. All three reanalyses have a systematic bias towards overestimating wind speed below 3-4 m/s and underestimating wind speed above 4 m/s. This bias becomes larger with increasing wind speed but is independent of the time of day. For instance, 14 m/s observed wind speeds are underestimated on average by 6 m/s in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Given the cubic relationship between wind speed and dust emission this large underestimation is expected to significantly impact the simulation of dust emissions. A negative relationship between observed and ERA-Interim wind speed is found for winds above 14 m/s indicating that high wind speed generating processes are not well (if at all) represented in the model.

Version 2 Goddard Satellite-Based Surface Turbulent Fluxes (GSSTF2)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Shu-Hsien; Nelkin, Eric; Ardizzone, Joe; Atlas, Robert M.; Shie, Chung-Lin; Starr, David O'C. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Information on the turbulent fluxes of momentum, moisture, and heat at the air-sea interface is essential in improving model simulations of climate variations and in climate studies. We have derived a 13.5-year (July 1987-December 2000) dataset of daily surface turbulent fluxes over global oceans from the Special Sensor Mcrowave/Imager (SSM/I) radiance measurements. This dataset, version 2 Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes (GSSTF2), has a spatial resolution of 1 degree x 1 degree latitude-longitude and a temporal resolution of 1 day. Turbulent fluxes are derived from the SSM/I surface winds and surface air humidity, as well as the 2-m air and sea surface temperatures (SST) of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, using a bulk aerodynamic algorithm based on the surface layer similarity theory.

Impact of uncertainty in surface forcing on the new SODA 3 global reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carton, J.; Chepurin, G. A.; Chen, L.

2016-02-01

An updated version of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation reanalysis (SODA 3)has been constructed based on GFDL MOM ocean and sea ice numerics, with improved resolution and other changes. A series of three 30+ year long global ocean reanalysis experiments (1980-2014) have carried out which differ only in the choice of specified daily surface heat, momentum, and freshwater forcing: MERRA2, ERA-Int, and ERA-20. The first two forcing data sets make extensive use of satellite observations while the third only uses surface observations. The differences in the resulting SODA reanalysis experiments allow us to explore a major source of error in ocean reanalyses, which is the uncertainty introduced by errors in the surface forcing. The modest differences among the experiments tend to be concentrated at higher latitude where the MERRA2-SODA has a somewhat cooler (1C), saltier (1psu) surface leading to lower (10cm) sea level. Cooler conditions affect the upper 300m heat content at high latitude (although MERRA2-SODA HC300 is higher in the subtropics). RMS differences are small except for surface salinity at high latitude (1psu). The implications for such issues thermosteric sea level, the overturning circulation, and the rise of global heat storage will be discussed.

Comparative analysis of atmosphere temperature variability for Northern Eurasia based on the Reanalysis and in-situ observed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shulgina, T.; Genina, E.; Gordov, E.; Nikitchuk, K.

2009-04-01

At present numerous data archives which include meteorological observations as well as climate processes modeling data are available for Earth Science specialists. Methods of mathematical statistics are widely used for their processing and analysis. In many cases they represent the only way of quantitative assessment of the meteorological and climatic information. Unified set of analysis methods allows us to compare climatic characteristics calculated on the basis of different datasets with the purpose of performing more detailed analysis of climate dynamics for both regional and global levels. The report presents the results of comparative analysis of atmosphere temperature behavior for the Northern Eurasia territory for the period from 1979 to 2004 based on the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, NCEP/DOE Reanalysis AMIP II, JMA/CRIEPI JRA-25 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA-40 Reanalysis data and observation data obtained from meteorological stations of the former Soviet Union. Statistical processing of atmosphere temperature data included analysis of time series homogeneity of climate indices approved by WMO, such as "Number of frost days", "Number of summer days", "Number of icing days", "Number of tropical nights", etc. by means of parametric methods of mathematical statistics (Fisher and Student tests). That allowed conducting comprehensive research of spatio-temporal features of the atmosphere temperature. Analysis of the atmosphere temperature dynamics revealed inhomogeneity of the data obtained for large observation intervals. Particularly, analysis performed for the period 1979 - 2004 showed the significant increase of the number of frost and icing days approximately by 1 day for every 2 years and decrease roughly by 1 day for 2 years for the number of summer days. Also it should be mentioned that the growth period mean temperature have increased by 1.5 - 2° C for the time period being considered. The usage of different Reanalysis datasets in conjunction with in-situ observed data allowed comparing of climate indices values calculated on the basis of different datasets that improves the reliability of the results obtained. Partial support of SB RAS Basic Research Program 4.5.2 (Project 2) is acknowledged.

Meteorological Drivers of West Antarctic Ice Sheet and Ice Shelf Surface Melt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, R. C.; Nicolas, J. P.; Bromwich, D. H.; Norris, J. R.; Lubin, D.

2017-12-01

We identify synoptic patterns and surface energy balance components driving warming and surface melting on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and ice shelves using reanalysis and satellite remote sensing data from 1973-present. We have developed a synoptic climatology of atmospheric circulation patterns during the summer melt season using k-means cluster and composite analysis of daily 700-mb geopotential height and near-surface air temperature and wind fields from the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis. Surface melt occurrence is detected in satellite passive microwave brightness temperature observations (K-band, horizontal polarization) beginning with the NASA Nimbus-5 Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer (ESMR) and continuing with its more familiar descendants SMMR, SSM/I and SSMIS. To diagnose synoptic precursors and physical processes driving surface melt we combine the circulation climatology and multi-decadal records of cloud cover with surface radiative fluxes from the Extended AVHRR Polar Pathfinder (APP-x) project. We identify three distinct modes of regional summer West Antarctic warming since 1979 involving anomalous ridging over West Antarctica (WA) and the Amundsen Sea (AS). During the 1970s, ESMR data reveal four extensive melt events on the Ross Sea sector of the WAIS also linked to AS blocking. We therefore define an Amundsen Sea Blocking Index (ASBI). The ASBI and synoptic circulation pattern occurrence frequencies are correlated with the tropical Pacific (ENSO) and high latitude Southern Annular Mode (SAM) indices and the West Antarctic melt index. Surface melt in WA is favored by enhanced downwelling infrared and turbulent sensible heat fluxes associated with intrusions of warm, moist marine air. Consistent with recent findings from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE), marine advection to the Ross sector is favored by El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific and a negative SAM. We also find that El Niño-related blocking favors warming and melting on the marine-based ice streams draining from Wilkes Basin, East Antarctica.

Mars Dust and LETKF Data Assimilation of TES Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greybush, S. J.; Hoffman, R. N.; Wilson, R.; Kang, J.; Zhao, Y.; Hoffman, M. J.; Kalnay, E.; Miyoshi, T.

2012-12-01

Simulation and prediction of dust storms remains one of the greatest challenges in Martian meteorology. Large-scale dust storms impact all Mars operations including spacecraft observations. What makes the difference between a regional event and a planet-encircling event? What are the predictability characteristics of these events and of the transition from regional to global? We examine the meteorology, including dustiness, in the Mars reanalysis created with the GFDL Mars Global Climate Model (MGCM) Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) data assimilation system (DAS). Characterizing the distribution and temporal evolution of dust in the Martian atmosphere is a considerable challenge. Spacecraft observations are sparse and have limitations in vertical coverage, dust physical properties are not well known, and model parameterizations of surface lifting have limited success in reproducing observed variability. Methods for generating a dust reanalysis begin with satellite inferred dust information in the form of column opacities, dust profile retrievals, or the original radiances. Opacities may be estimated from a formal retrieval of the satellite data or inferred through surface brightness temperatures. The opacities have been ingested via ad hoc adjustments to model tracer fields (Conrath vertical distributions, changes to the boundary layer dust only, etc.), but could also be assimilated by the LETKF or other advanced DAS. We will present dust distributions in the most recent version of the MGCM-LETKF Mars reanalysis. Current results are from two DASs, one assuming a fixed dust distribution and one using TES opacities and updating the boundary layer dust only. In these reanalyses, a full year of Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) temperature profiles have been assimilated. Since an accurate characterization of the sources and sinks of dust would greatly improve our understanding of the Martian dust cycle and its representation in numerical weather prediction models, we will examine two advanced DAS techniques that have been demonstrated in terrestrial DASs and could be applied to the problem -- surface dust flux estimation and estimating the surface parameters that control the source of dust (roughness, inventories). The surface dust flux method requires no a priori information about the fluxes, and uses only atmospheric observations. For the terrestrial CO2 problem, surface sources and sinks of CO2 have been estimated using only time-dependent measurements of atmospheric CO2, temperatures, and winds, and without a priori information on the surface fluxes. This scenario is very analogous to the case of Mars. On Mars we have only information on temperature and dust opacities at spacecraft overpass locations. Results for terrestrial CO2 and plans for Mars dust will be presented. However, to improve model parameterizations of dust lifting, we need to understand not only the planetary distribution of dust but also the evolution of its sources and sinks and their relation to meteorology. The surface parameters method assumes the physical properties have a persistence or damped persistence evolution equation. These are then treated as part of the model state vector in the LETKF. This approach is then analogous to the bias correction method used in LETKF to improve the atmospheric state estimation.

Initialization methods and ensembles generation for the IPSL GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labetoulle, Sonia; Mignot, Juliette; Guilyardi, Eric; Denvil, Sébastien; Masson, Sébastien

2010-05-01

The protocol used and developments made for decadal and seasonal predictability studies at IPSL (Paris, France) are presented. The strategy chosen is to initialize the IPSL-CM5 (NEMO ocean and LMDZ atmosphere) model only at the ocean-atmosphere interface, following the guidance and expertise gained from ocean-only NEMO experiments. Two novel approaches are presented for initializing the coupled system. First, a nudging of sea surface temperature and wind stress towards available reanalysis is made with the surface salinity climatologically restored. Second, the heat, salt and momentum fluxes received by the ocean model are computed as a linear combination of the fluxes computed by the atmospheric model and by a CORE-style bulk formulation using up-to-date reanalysis. The steps that led to these choices are presented, as well as a description of the code adaptation and a comparison of the computational cost of both methods. The strategy for the generation of ensembles at the end of the initialization phase is also presented. We show how the technical environment of IPSL-CM5 (LibIGCM) was modified to achieve these goals.

A new dynamical downscaling approach with GCM bias corrections and spectral nudging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhongfeng; Yang, Zong-Liang

2015-04-01

To improve confidence in regional projections of future climate, a new dynamical downscaling (NDD) approach with both general circulation model (GCM) bias corrections and spectral nudging is developed and assessed over North America. GCM biases are corrected by adjusting GCM climatological means and variances based on reanalysis data before the GCM output is used to drive a regional climate model (RCM). Spectral nudging is also applied to constrain RCM-based biases. Three sets of RCM experiments are integrated over a 31 year period. In the first set of experiments, the model configurations are identical except that the initial and lateral boundary conditions are derived from either the original GCM output, the bias-corrected GCM output, or the reanalysis data. The second set of experiments is the same as the first set except spectral nudging is applied. The third set of experiments includes two sensitivity runs with both GCM bias corrections and nudging where the nudging strength is progressively reduced. All RCM simulations are assessed against North American Regional Reanalysis. The results show that NDD significantly improves the downscaled mean climate and climate variability relative to other GCM-driven RCM downscaling approach in terms of climatological mean air temperature, geopotential height, wind vectors, and surface air temperature variability. In the NDD approach, spectral nudging introduces the effects of GCM bias corrections throughout the RCM domain rather than just limiting them to the initial and lateral boundary conditions, thereby minimizing climate drifts resulting from both the GCM and RCM biases.

Innovative approaches helpful to enhance knowledge on weather-related stroke events over a wide geographical area and a large population.

PubMed

Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Vallorani, Roberto; Modesti, Pietro Amedeo; Gensini, Gian Franco; Orlandini, Simone

2011-03-01

Results on the effect of weather on stroke occurrences are still confusing and controversial. The aim of this study was to retrospectively investigate in Tuscany (central Italy) the weather-related stroke events through the use of an innovative source of weather data (Reanalysis) together with an original statistical approach to quantify the prompt/delayed health effects of both cold and heat exposures. Daily stroke hospitalizations and meteorologic data from the Reanalysis 2 Achieve were obtained for the period 1997 to 2007. Generalized linear and additive models and an innovative modeling approach, the constrained segmented distributed lag model, were applied. Both daily averages and day-to-day changes of air temperature and geopotential height (a measure that approximates the mean surface pressure) were selected as independent predictors of all stroke occurrences. In particular, a 5°C temperature decrease was associated with 16.5% increase of primary intracerebral hemorrhage of people ≥65 years of age. A general short-term cold effect on hospitalizations limited to 1 week after exposure was observed and, for the first time, a clear harvesting effect (deficit of hospitalization) for cold-related primary intracerebral hemorrhage was described. Day-to-day changes of meteorologic parameters disclosed characteristic U- and J-shaped relationships with stroke occurrences. Thanks to the intrinsic characteristic of Reanalysis, these results might simply be implemented in an operative forecast system regarding weather-related stroke events with the aim to develop preventive health plans.

The NASA Modern Era Reanalysis for Research and Applications, Version-2 (MERRA-2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gelaro, R.; McCarty, W.; Molod, A.; Suarez, M.; Takacs, L.; Todling, R.

2014-12-01

The NASA Modern Era Reanalysis for Research Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2) is a reanalysis for the satellite era using an updated version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version-5 (GEOS-5) produced by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). MERRA-2 will assimilate meteorological and aerosol observations not available to MERRA and includes improvements to the GEOS-5 model and analysis scheme so as to provide an ongoing climate analysis beyond MERRA's terminus. MERRA-2 will also serve as a development milestone for a future GMAO coupled Earth system analysis. Production of MERRA-2 began in June 2014 in four processing streams, with convergence to a single near-real time climate analysis expected by early 2015. This talk provides an overview of the MERRA-2 system developments and key science results. For example, compared with MERRA, MERRA-2 exhibits a well-balanced relationship between global precipitation and evaporation, with significantly reduced sensitivity to changes in the global observing system through time. Other notable improvements include reduced biases in the tropical middle- and upper-tropospheric wind and near-surface temperature over continents.

The method ADAMONT v1.0 for statistical adjustment of climate projections applicable to energy balance land surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verfaillie, Deborah; Déqué, Michel; Morin, Samuel; Lafaysse, Matthieu

2017-11-01

We introduce the method ADAMONT v1.0 to adjust and disaggregate daily climate projections from a regional climate model (RCM) using an observational dataset at hourly time resolution. The method uses a refined quantile mapping approach for statistical adjustment and an analogous method for sub-daily disaggregation. The method ultimately produces adjusted hourly time series of temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity, and short- and longwave radiation, which can in turn be used to force any energy balance land surface model. While the method is generic and can be employed for any appropriate observation time series, here we focus on the description and evaluation of the method in the French mountainous regions. The observational dataset used here is the SAFRAN meteorological reanalysis, which covers the entire French Alps split into 23 massifs, within which meteorological conditions are provided for several 300 m elevation bands. In order to evaluate the skills of the method itself, it is applied to the ALADIN-Climate v5 RCM using the ERA-Interim reanalysis as boundary conditions, for the time period from 1980 to 2010. Results of the ADAMONT method are compared to the SAFRAN reanalysis itself. Various evaluation criteria are used for temperature and precipitation but also snow depth, which is computed by the SURFEX/ISBA-Crocus model using the meteorological driving data from either the adjusted RCM data or the SAFRAN reanalysis itself. The evaluation addresses in particular the time transferability of the method (using various learning/application time periods), the impact of the RCM grid point selection procedure for each massif/altitude band configuration, and the intervariable consistency of the adjusted meteorological data generated by the method. Results show that the performance of the method is satisfactory, with similar or even better evaluation metrics than alternative methods. However, results for air temperature are generally better than for precipitation. Results in terms of snow depth are satisfactory, which can be viewed as indicating a reasonably good intervariable consistency of the meteorological data produced by the method. In terms of temporal transferability (evaluated over time periods of 15 years only), results depend on the learning period. In terms of RCM grid point selection technique, the use of a complex RCM grid points selection technique, taking into account horizontal but also altitudinal proximity to SAFRAN massif centre points/altitude couples, generally degrades evaluation metrics for high altitudes compared to a simpler grid point selection method based on horizontal distance.

Impacts of land cover changes on climate trends in Jiangxi province China.

PubMed

Wang, Qi; Riemann, Dirk; Vogt, Steffen; Glaser, Rüdiger

2014-07-01

Land-use/land-cover (LULC) change is an important climatic force, and is also affected by climate change. In the present study, we aimed to assess the regional scale impact of LULC on climate change using Jiangxi Province, China, as a case study. To obtain reliable climate trends, we applied the standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT) to surface air temperature and precipitation data for the period 1951-1999. We also compared the temperature trends computed from Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) datasets and from our analysis. To examine the regional impacts of land surface types on surface air temperature and precipitation change integrating regional topography, we used the observation minus reanalysis (OMR) method. Precipitation series were found to be homogeneous. Comparison of GHCN and our analysis on adjusted temperatures indicated that the resulting climate trends varied slightly from dataset to dataset. OMR trends associated with surface vegetation types revealed a strong surface warming response to land barrenness and weak warming response to land greenness. A total of 81.1% of the surface warming over vegetation index areas (0-0.2) was attributed to surface vegetation type change and regional topography. The contribution of surface vegetation type change decreases as land cover greenness increases. The OMR precipitation trend has a weak dependence on surface vegetation type change. We suggest that LULC integrating regional topography should be considered as a force in regional climate modeling.

Anthropogenic aerosols and the distribution of past large-scale precipitation change

DOE PAGES

Wang, Chien

2015-12-28

In this paper, the climate response of precipitation to the effects of anthropogenic aerosols is a critical while not yet fully understood aspect in climate science. Results of selected models that participated the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and the data from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project suggest that, throughout the tropics and also in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, aerosols have largely dominated the distribution of precipitation changes in reference to the preindustrial era in the second half of the last century. Aerosol-induced cooling has offset some of the warming caused by the greenhouse gases from the tropics tomore » the Arctic and thus formed the gradients of surface temperature anomaly that enable the revealed precipitation change patterns to occur. Improved representation of aerosol-cloud interaction has been demonstrated as the key factor for models to reproduce consistent distributions of past precipitation change with the reanalysis data.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Chien

In this paper, the climate response of precipitation to the effects of anthropogenic aerosols is a critical while not yet fully understood aspect in climate science. Results of selected models that participated the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and the data from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project suggest that, throughout the tropics and also in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, aerosols have largely dominated the distribution of precipitation changes in reference to the preindustrial era in the second half of the last century. Aerosol-induced cooling has offset some of the warming caused by the greenhouse gases from the tropics tomore » the Arctic and thus formed the gradients of surface temperature anomaly that enable the revealed precipitation change patterns to occur. Improved representation of aerosol-cloud interaction has been demonstrated as the key factor for models to reproduce consistent distributions of past precipitation change with the reanalysis data.« less

Influence of reanalysis datasets on dynamically downscaling the recent past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moalafhi, Ditiro B.; Evans, Jason P.; Sharma, Ashish

2017-08-01

Multiple reanalysis datasets currently exist that can provide boundary conditions for dynamic downscaling and simulating local hydro-climatic processes at finer spatial and temporal resolutions. Previous work has suggested that there are two reanalyses alternatives that provide the best lateral boundary conditions for downscaling over southern Africa. This study dynamically downscales these reanalyses (ERA-I and MERRA) over southern Africa to a high resolution (10 km) grid using the WRF model. Simulations cover the period 1981-2010. Multiple observation datasets were used for both surface temperature and precipitation to account for observational uncertainty when assessing results. Generally, temperature is simulated quite well, except over the Namibian coastal plain where the simulations show anomalous warm temperature related to the failure to propagate the influence of the cold Benguela current inland. Precipitation tends to be overestimated in high altitude areas, and most of southern Mozambique. This could be attributed to challenges in handling complex topography and capturing large-scale circulation patterns. While MERRA driven WRF exhibits slightly less bias in temperature especially for La Nina years, ERA-I driven simulations are on average superior in terms of RMSE. When considering multiple variables and metrics, ERA-I is found to produce the best simulation of the climate over the domain. The influence of the regional model appears to be large enough to overcome the small difference in relative errors present in the lateral boundary conditions derived from these two reanalyses.

Impact of Arctic sea-ice retreat on the recent change in cloud-base height during autumn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, K.; Inoue, J.; Kodama, Y.; Overland, J. E.

2012-12-01

Cloud-base observations over the ice-free Chukchi and Beaufort Seas in autumn were conducted using a shipboard ceilometer and radiosondes during the 1999-2010 cruises of the Japanese R/V Mirai. To understand the recent change in cloud base height over the Arctic Ocean, these cloud-base height data were compared with the observation data under ice-covered situation during SHEBA (the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean project in 1998). Our ice-free results showed a 30 % decrease (increase) in the frequency of low clouds with a ceiling below (above) 500 m. Temperature profiles revealed that the boundary layer was well developed over the ice-free ocean in the 2000s, whereas a stable layer dominated during the ice-covered period in 1998. The change in surface boundary conditions likely resulted in the difference in cloud-base height, although it had little impact on air temperatures in the mid- and upper troposphere. Data from the 2010 R/V Mirai cruise were investigated in detail in terms of air-sea temperature difference. This suggests that stratus cloud over the sea ice has been replaced as stratocumulus clouds with low cloud fraction due to the decrease in static stability induced by the sea-ice retreat. The relationship between cloud-base height and air-sea temperature difference (SST-Ts) was analyzed in detail using special section data during 2010 cruise data. Stratus clouds near the sea surface were predominant under a warm advection situation, whereas stratocumulus clouds with a cloud-free layer were significant under a cold advection situation. The threshold temperature difference between sea surface and air temperatures for distinguishing the dominant cloud types was 3 K. Anomalous upward turbulent heat fluxes associated with the sea-ice retreat have likely contributed to warming of the lower troposphere. Frequency distribution of the cloud-base height (km) detected by a ceilometer/lidar (black bars) and radiosondes (gray bars), and profiles of potential temperature (K) for (a) ice-free cases (R/V Mirai during September) and (b) ice-covered case (SHEBA during September 1998). (c) Vertical profiles of air temperature from 1000 hPa to 150 hPa (solid lines: observations north of 75°N, and dashed lines: the ERA-Interim reanalysis over 75-82.5°N, 150-170°W). Green, blue, and red lines denote profiles derived from observations by NP stations (the 1980s), SHEBA (1998), and the R/V Mirai (the 2000s), respectively. (d) Temperature trend calculated by the ERA-Interim reanalysis over the area.

Reanalysis Data Evaluation to Study Temperature Extremes in Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shulgina, T. M.; Gordov, E. P.

2014-12-01

Ongoing global climate changes are strongly pronounced in Siberia by significant warming in the 2nd half of 20th century and recent extreme events such as 2010 heat wave and 2013 flood in Russia's Far East. To improve our understanding of observed climate extremes and to provide to regional decision makers the reliable scientifically based information with high special and temporal resolution on climate state, we need to operate with accurate meteorological data in our study. However, from available 231 stations across Siberia only 130 of them present the homogeneous daily temperature time series. Sparse, station network, especially in high latitudes, force us to use simulated reanalysis data. However those might differ from observations. To obtain reliable information on temperature extreme "hot spots" in Siberia we have compared daily temperatures form ERA-40, ERA Interim, JRA-25, JRA-55, NCEP/DOE, MERRA Reanalysis, HadEX2 and GHCNDEX gridded datasets with observations from RIHMI-WDC/CDIAC dataset for overlap period 1981-2000. Data agreement was estimated at station coordinates to which reanalysis data were interpolated using modified Shepard method. Comparison of averaged over 20 year annual mean temperatures shows general agreement for Siberia excepting Baikal region, where reanalyses significantly underestimate observed temperature behavior. The annual temperatures closest to observed one were obtained from ERA-40 and ERA Interim. Furthermore, t-test results show homogeneity of these datasets, which allows one to combine them for long term time series analysis. In particular, we compared the combined data with observations for percentile-based extreme indices. In Western Siberia reanalysis and gridded data accurately reproduce observed daily max/min temperatures. For East Siberia, Lake Baikal area, ERA Interim data slightly underestimates TN90p and TX90p values. Results obtained allows regional decision-makers to get required high spatial resolution (0,25°×0,25°) climatic information products from the combined ERA data. The authors acknowledge partial financial support for this research from the RFBR (13-05-12034, 14-05-00502), SB RAS Integration projects (131, VIII.80.2.1.) and grant of the President of RF (№ 181).

An evaluation of the variable-resolution CESM for modeling California's climate: Evaluation of VR-CESM for Modeling California's Climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Xingying; Rhoades, Alan M.; Ullrich, Paul A.

In this paper, the recently developed variable-resolution option within the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) is assessed for long-term regional climate modeling of California at 0.25° (~ 28 km) and 0.125° (~ 14 km) horizontal resolutions. The mean climatology of near-surface temperature and precipitation is analyzed and contrasted with reanalysis, gridded observational data sets, and a traditional regional climate model (RCM)—the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Statistical metrics for model evaluation and tests for differential significance have been extensively applied. VR-CESM tended to produce a warmer summer (by about 1–3°C) and overestimated overall winter precipitation (about 25%–35%) compared tomore » reference data sets when sea surface temperatures were prescribed. Increasing resolution from 0.25° to 0.125° did not produce a statistically significant improvement in the model results. By comparison, the analogous WRF climatology (constrained laterally and at the sea surface by ERA-Interim reanalysis) was ~1–3°C colder than the reference data sets, underestimated precipitation by ~20%–30% at 27 km resolution, and overestimated precipitation by ~ 65–85% at 9 km. Overall, VR-CESM produced comparable statistical biases to WRF in key climatological quantities. Moreover, this assessment highlights the value of variable-resolution global climate models (VRGCMs) in capturing fine-scale atmospheric processes, projecting future regional climate, and addressing the computational expense of uniform-resolution global climate models.« less

An evaluation of the variable-resolution CESM for modeling California's climate: Evaluation of VR-CESM for Modeling California's Climate

DOE PAGES

Huang, Xingying; Rhoades, Alan M.; Ullrich, Paul A.; ...

2016-03-01

In this paper, the recently developed variable-resolution option within the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) is assessed for long-term regional climate modeling of California at 0.25° (~ 28 km) and 0.125° (~ 14 km) horizontal resolutions. The mean climatology of near-surface temperature and precipitation is analyzed and contrasted with reanalysis, gridded observational data sets, and a traditional regional climate model (RCM)—the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Statistical metrics for model evaluation and tests for differential significance have been extensively applied. VR-CESM tended to produce a warmer summer (by about 1–3°C) and overestimated overall winter precipitation (about 25%–35%) compared tomore » reference data sets when sea surface temperatures were prescribed. Increasing resolution from 0.25° to 0.125° did not produce a statistically significant improvement in the model results. By comparison, the analogous WRF climatology (constrained laterally and at the sea surface by ERA-Interim reanalysis) was ~1–3°C colder than the reference data sets, underestimated precipitation by ~20%–30% at 27 km resolution, and overestimated precipitation by ~ 65–85% at 9 km. Overall, VR-CESM produced comparable statistical biases to WRF in key climatological quantities. Moreover, this assessment highlights the value of variable-resolution global climate models (VRGCMs) in capturing fine-scale atmospheric processes, projecting future regional climate, and addressing the computational expense of uniform-resolution global climate models.« less

Evaluation of CORDEX-Arctic daily precipitation and temperature-based climate indices over Canadian Arctic land areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaconescu, Emilia Paula; Mailhot, Alain; Brown, Ross; Chaumont, Diane

2018-03-01

This study focuses on the evaluation of daily precipitation and temperature climate indices and extremes simulated by an ensemble of 12 Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the ARCTIC-CORDEX experiment with surface observations in the Canadian Arctic from the Adjusted Historical Canadian Climate Dataset. Five global reanalyses products (ERA-Interim, JRA55, MERRA, CFSR and GMFD) are also included in the evaluation to assess their potential for RCM evaluation in data sparse regions. The study evaluated the means and annual anomaly distributions of indices over the 1980-2004 dataset overlap period. The results showed that RCM and reanalysis performance varied with the climate variables being evaluated. Most RCMs and reanalyses were able to simulate well climate indices related to mean air temperature and hot extremes over most of the Canadian Arctic, with the exception of the Yukon region where models displayed the largest biases related to topographic effects. Overall performance was generally poor for indices related to cold extremes. Likewise, only a few RCM simulations and reanalyses were able to provide realistic simulations of precipitation extreme indicators. The multi-reanalysis ensemble provided superior results to individual datasets for climate indicators related to mean air temperature and hot extremes, but not for other indicators. These results support the use of reanalyses as reference datasets for the evaluation of RCM mean air temperature and hot extremes over northern Canada, but not for cold extremes and precipitation indices.

Ice Surface Temperature Variability in the Polar Regions and the Relationships to 2 Meter Air Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoyer, J.; Madsen, K. S.; Englyst, P. N.

2017-12-01

Determining the surface and near surface air temperature from models or observations in the Polar Regions is challenging due to the extreme conditions and the lack of in situ observations. The errors in near surface temperature products are typically larger than for other regions of the world, and the potential for using Earth Observations is large. As part of the EU project, EUSTACE, we have developed empirical models for the relationship between the satellite observed skin ice temperatures and 2m air temperatures. We use the Arctic and Antarctic Sea and sea ice Surface Temperatures from thermal Infrared satellite sensors (AASTI) reanalysis to estimate daily surface air temperature over land ice and sea ice for the Arctic and the Antarctic. Large efforts have been put into collecting and quality controlling in situ observations from various data portals and research projects. The reconstruction is independent of numerical weather prediction models and thus provides an important alternative to modelled air temperature estimates. The new surface air temperature data record has been validated against more than 58.000 independent in situ measurements for the four surface types: Arctic sea ice, Greenland ice sheet, Antarctic sea ice and Antarctic ice sheet. The average correlations are 92-97% and average root mean square errors are 3.1-3.6°C for the four surface types. The root mean square error includes the uncertainty of the in-situ measurement, which ranges from 0.5 to 2°C. A comparison with ERA-Interim shows a consistently better performance of the satellite based air temperatures than the ERA-Interim for the Greenland ice sheet, when compared against observations not used in any of the two estimates. This is encouraging and demonstrates the values of these products. In addition, the procedure presented here works on satellite observations that are available in near real time and this opens up for a near real time estimation of the surface air temperature over ice from satellites.

Strong Dependence of U.S. Summertime Air Quality on the Decadal Variability of Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Lu; Mickley, Loretta J.; Leibensperger, Eric M.; Li, Mingwei

2017-12-01

We find that summertime air quality in the eastern U.S. displays strong dependence on North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, resulting from large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions. Using observations, reanalysis data sets, and climate model simulations, we further identify a multidecadal variability in surface air quality driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In one-half cycle ( 35 years) of the AMO from cold to warm phase, summertime maximum daily 8 h ozone concentrations increase by 1-4 ppbv and PM2.5 concentrations increase by 0.3-1.0 μg m-3 over much of the east. These air quality changes are related to warmer, drier, and more stagnant weather in the AMO warm phase, together with anomalous circulation patterns at the surface and aloft. If the AMO shifts to the cold phase in future years, it could partly offset the climate penalty on U.S. air quality brought by global warming, an effect which should be considered in long-term air quality planning.

Global Climatology of the Coastal Low-Level Wind Jets using different Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, Daniela C. A.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Semedo, Alvaro; Cardoso, Rita M.

2016-04-01

Coastal Low-Level Jets (henceforth referred to as "coastal jets" or simply as CLLJ) are low-tropospheric mesoscale wind features, with wind speed maxima confined to the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL), typically bellow 1km. Coastal jets occur in the eastern flank of the semi-permanent subtropical mid-latitude high pressure systems, along equatorward eastern boundary currents, due to a large-scale synoptic forcing. The large-scale synoptic forcing behind CLLJ occurrences is a high pressure system over the ocean and a thermal low inland. This results in coastal parallel winds that are the consequence of the geostrophic adjustment. CLLJ are found along the California (California-Oregon) and the Canary (Iberia and Northeastern Africa) currents in the Northern Hemisphere, and along the Peru-Humboldt (Peru-Chile), Benguela (Namibia) and Western Australia (West Australia) currents in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Arabian Sea (Oman CLLJ), the interaction between the high pressure over the Indian Ocean in summer (Summer Indian Monsoon) and the Somali (also known as Findlater) Jet forces a coastal jet wind feature off the southeast coast of Oman. Coastal jets play an important role in the regional climates of the mid-latitude western continental regions. The decrease of the sea surface temperatures (SST) along the coast due to upwelling lowers the evaporation over the ocean and the coast parallel winds prevents the advection of marine air inshore. The feedback processes between the CLLJ and upwelling play a crucial role in the regional climate, namely, promoting aridity since the parallel flow prevents the intrusion of moisture inland, and increasing fish stocks through the transport of rich nutrient cold water from the bottom. In this study, the global coastal low-level wind jets are identified and characterized using an ensemble of three reanalysis, the ECMWF Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim), the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP CFSR). The CLLJ detection method proposed by Ranjha et al. (2013) was used for the reanalysis data. The criteria was applied sequentially to wind-speed and temperature vertical profiles to detect the location and frequency of CLLJ. The CLLJs spatio-temporal features and the seasonal synoptic configuration associated with the presence of coastal jets are studied for the period (1979-2008) using the ensemble. The present study will allow us to investigate thoroughly the global coastal low-level jets occurrence and main properties, following a new perspective and to assess the uncertainties in the representation of this jets by the available reanalysis. ublication supported by project FCT UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz.

Wind-Stress Simulations and Equatorial Dynamics in an AGCM. Part 1; Basic Results from a 1979-1999 Forced SST Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bacmeister, Julio T.; Suarez, Max J.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This is the first of a two part study examining the connection of the equatorial momentum budget in an AGCM (Atmospheric General Circulation Model), with simulated equatorial surface wind stresses over the Pacific. The AGCM used in this study forms part of a newly developed coupled forecasting system used at NASA's Seasonal- to-Interannual Prediction Project. Here we describe the model and present results from a 20-year (1979-1999) AMIP-type experiment forced with observed SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures). Model results are compared them with available observational data sets. The climatological pattern of extra-tropical planetary waves as well as their ENSO-related variability is found to agree quite well with re-analysis estimates. The model's surface wind stress is examined in detail, and reveals a reasonable overall simulation of seasonal interannual variability, as well as seasonal mean distributions. However, an excessive annual oscillation in wind stress over the equatorial central Pacific is found. We examine the model's divergent circulation over the tropical Pacific and compare it with estimates based on re-analysis data. These comparisons are generally good, but reveal excessive upper-level convergence in the central Pacific. In Part II of this study a direct examination of individual terms in the AGCM's momentum budget is presented. We relate the results of this analysis to the model's simulation of surface wind stress.

Reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon: four dimensional data assimilation of AIRS retrievals in a regional data assimilation and modeling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attada, Raju; Parekh, Anant; Chowdary, J. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

2018-04-01

This work is the first attempt to produce a multi-year downscaled regional reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational analyses and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 5 temperature and moisture retrievals in a regional model. Reanalysis of nine monsoon seasons (2003-2011) are produced in two parallel setups. The first set of experiments simply downscale the original NCEP operational analyses, whilst the second one assimilates the AIRS temperature and moisture profiles. The results show better representation of the key monsoon features such as low level jet, tropical easterly jet, subtropical westerly jet, monsoon trough and the spatial pattern of precipitation when AIRS profiles are assimilated (compared to those without AIRS data assimilation). The distribution of temperature, moisture and meridional gradients of dynamical and thermodynamical fields over the monsoon region are better represented in the reanalysis that assimilates AIRS profiles. The change induced by AIRS data on the moist and thermodynamic conditions results in more realistic rendering of the vertical shear associated with the monsoon, which in turn leads to a proper moisture transport and the moist convective feedback. This feedback benefits the representation of the regional monsoon characteristics, the monsoon dynamics and the moist convective processes on the seasonal time scale. This study emphasizes the use of AIRS soundings for downscaling of ISM representation in a regional reanalysis.

Evaluation of energy fluxes in the NCEP climate forecast system version 2.0 (CFSv2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, Archana; Saha, Subodh Kumar

2018-01-01

The energy fluxes at the surface and top of the atmosphere (TOA) from a long free run by the NCEP climate forecast system version 2.0 (CFSv2) are validated against several observation and reanalysis datasets. This study focuses on the annual mean energy fluxes and tries to link it with the systematic cold biases in the 2 m air temperature, particularly over the land regions. The imbalance in the long term mean global averaged energy fluxes are also evaluated. The global averaged imbalance at the surface and at the TOA is found to be 0.37 and 6.43 Wm-2, respectively. It is shown that CFSv2 overestimates the land surface albedo, particularly over the snow region, which in turn contributes to the cold biases in 2 m air temperature. On the other hand, surface albedo is highly underestimated over the coastal region around Antarctica and that may have contributed to the warm bias over that oceanic region. This study highlights the need for improvements in the parameterization of snow/sea-ice albedo scheme for a realistic simulation of surface temperature and that may have implications on the global energy imbalance in the model.

Analysis of the ability of large-scale reanalysis data to define Siberian fire danger in preparation for future fire prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, Amber; Westberg, David; Stackhouse, Paul, Jr.; McRae, Douglas; Jin, Ji-Zhong; Sukhinin, Anatoly

2010-05-01

Fire is the dominant disturbance that precipitates ecosystem change in boreal regions, and fire is largely under the control of weather and climate. Fire frequency, fire severity, area burned and fire season length are predicted to increase in boreal regions under current climate change scenarios. Therefore, changes in fire regimes have the potential to compel ecological change, moving ecosystems more quickly towards equilibrium with a new climate. The ultimate goal of this research is to assess the viability of large-scale (1°) data to be used to define fire weather danger and fire regimes, so that large-scale data can be confidently used to predict future fire regimes using large-scale fire weather data, like that available from current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios. In this talk, we intent to: (1) evaluate Fire Weather Indices (FWI) derived using reanalysis and interpolated station data; (2) discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using these distinct data sources; and (3) highlight established relationships between large-scale fire weather data, area burned, active fires and ecosystems burned. Specifically, the Canadian Forestry Service (CFS) Fire Weather Index (FWI) will be derived using: (1) NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 (GEOS-4) large-scale reanalysis and NASA Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data; and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) surface station-interpolated data. Requirements of the FWI are local noon surface-level air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and daily (noon-noon) rainfall. GEOS-4 reanalysis and NCDC station-interpolated fire weather indices are generally consistent spatially, temporally and quantitatively. Additionally, increased fire activity coincides with increased FWI ratings in both data products. Relationships have been established between large-scale FWI to area burned, fire frequency, ecosystem types, and these can be use to estimate historic and future fire regimes.

Climate-driven uncertainties in modeling terrestrial gross primary production: a site level to global-scale analysis.

PubMed

Barman, Rahul; Jain, Atul K; Liang, Miaoling

2014-05-01

We used a land surface model to quantify the causes and extents of biases in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) due to the use of meteorological reanalysis datasets. We first calibrated the model using meteorology and eddy covariance data from 25 flux tower sites ranging from the tropics to the northern high latitudes and subsequently repeated the site simulations using two reanalysis datasets: NCEP/NCAR and CRUNCEP. The results show that at most sites, the reanalysis-driven GPP bias was significantly positive with respect to the observed meteorology-driven simulations. Notably, the absolute GPP bias was highest at the tropical evergreen tree sites, averaging up to ca. 0.45 kg C m(-2)  yr(-1) across sites (ca. 15% of site level GPP). At the northern mid-/high-latitude broadleaf deciduous and the needleleaf evergreen tree sites, the corresponding annual GPP biases were up to 20%. For the nontree sites, average annual biases of up to ca. 20-30% were simulated within savanna, grassland, and shrubland vegetation types. At the tree sites, the biases in short-wave radiation and humidity strongly influenced the GPP biases, while the nontree sites were more affected by biases in factors controlling water stress (precipitation, humidity, and air temperature). In this study, we also discuss the influence of seasonal patterns of meteorological biases on GPP. Finally, using model simulations for the global land surface, we discuss the potential impacts of site-level reanalysis-driven biases on the global estimates of GPP. In a broader context, our results can have important consequences on other terrestrial ecosystem fluxes (e.g., net primary production, net ecosystem production, energy/water fluxes) and reservoirs (e.g., soil carbon stocks). In a complementary study (Barman et al., ), we extend the present analysis for latent and sensible heat fluxes, thus consistently integrating the analysis of climate-driven uncertainties in carbon, energy, and water fluxes using a single modeling framework. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Measuring Skin Temperatures with the IASI Hyperspectral Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safieddine, S.; George, M.; Clarisse, L.; Clerbaux, C.

2017-12-01

Although the role of satellites in observing the variability of the Earth system has increased in recent decades, remote-sensing observations are still underexploited to accurately assess climate change fingerprints, in particular temperature variations. The IASI - Flux and Temperature (IASI-FT) project aims at providing new benchmarks for temperature observations using the calibrated radiances measured twice a day at any location by the IASI thermal infrared instrument on the suite of MetOp satellites (2006-2025). The main challenge is to achieve the accuracy and stability needed for climate studies, particularly that required for climate trends. Time series for land and sea skin surface temperatures are derived and compared with in situ measurements and atmospheric reanalysis. The observed trends are analyzed at seasonal and regional scales in order to disentangle natural (weather/dynamical) variability and human-induced climate forcings.

A new voxel-based model for the determination of atmospheric weighted mean temperature in GPS atmospheric sounding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Changyong; Wu, Suqin; Wang, Xiaoming; Hu, Andong; Wang, Qianxin; Zhang, Kefei

2017-06-01

The Global Positioning System (GPS) is a powerful atmospheric observing system for determining precipitable water vapour (PWV). In the detection of PWV using GPS, the atmospheric weighted mean temperature (Tm) is a crucial parameter for the conversion of zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) to PWV since the quality of PWV is affected by the accuracy of Tm. In this study, an improved voxel-based Tm model, named GWMT-D, was developed using global reanalysis data over a 4-year period from 2010 to 2013 provided by the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The performance of GWMT-D was assessed against three existing empirical Tm models - GTm-III, GWMT-IV, and GTmN - using different data sources in 2014 - the NCEP reanalysis data, surface Tm data provided by Global Geodetic Observing System and radiosonde measurements. The results show that the new GWMT-D model outperforms all the other three models with a root-mean-square error of less than 5.0 K at different altitudes over the globe. The new GWMT-D model can provide a practical alternative Tm determination method in real-time GPS-PWV remote sensing systems.

Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation influence on weather regimes over Europe and the Mediterranean in spring and summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zampieri, M.; Toreti, A.; Schindler, A.; Scoccimarro, E.; Gualdi, S.

2017-04-01

We analyze the influence of the Atlantic sea surface temperature multi-decadal variability on the day-by-day sequence of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (i.e. the ;weather regimes;) over the Euro-Atlantic region. In particular, we examine of occurrence of weather regimes from 1871 to present. This analysis is conducted by applying a clustering technique on the daily mean sea level pressure field provided by the 20th Century Reanalysis project, which was successfully applied in other studies focused on the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). In spring and summer, results show significant changes in the frequencies of certain weather regimes associated with the phase shifts of the AMO. These changes are consistent with the seasonal surface pressure, precipitation, and temperature anomalies associated with the AMO shifts in Europe.

Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas

PubMed Central

Karger, Dirk Nikolaus; Conrad, Olaf; Böhner, Jürgen; Kawohl, Tobias; Kreft, Holger; Soria-Auza, Rodrigo Wilber; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Linder, H. Peter; Kessler, Michael

2017-01-01

High-resolution information on climatic conditions is essential to many applications in environmental and ecological sciences. Here we present the CHELSA (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas) data of downscaled model output temperature and precipitation estimates of the ERA-Interim climatic reanalysis to a high resolution of 30 arc sec. The temperature algorithm is based on statistical downscaling of atmospheric temperatures. The precipitation algorithm incorporates orographic predictors including wind fields, valley exposition, and boundary layer height, with a subsequent bias correction. The resulting data consist of a monthly temperature and precipitation climatology for the years 1979–2013. We compare the data derived from the CHELSA algorithm with other standard gridded products and station data from the Global Historical Climate Network. We compare the performance of the new climatologies in species distribution modelling and show that we can increase the accuracy of species range predictions. We further show that CHELSA climatological data has a similar accuracy as other products for temperature, but that its predictions of precipitation patterns are better. PMID:28872642

Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karger, Dirk Nikolaus; Conrad, Olaf; Böhner, Jürgen; Kawohl, Tobias; Kreft, Holger; Soria-Auza, Rodrigo Wilber; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Linder, H. Peter; Kessler, Michael

2017-09-01

High-resolution information on climatic conditions is essential to many applications in environmental and ecological sciences. Here we present the CHELSA (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas) data of downscaled model output temperature and precipitation estimates of the ERA-Interim climatic reanalysis to a high resolution of 30 arc sec. The temperature algorithm is based on statistical downscaling of atmospheric temperatures. The precipitation algorithm incorporates orographic predictors including wind fields, valley exposition, and boundary layer height, with a subsequent bias correction. The resulting data consist of a monthly temperature and precipitation climatology for the years 1979-2013. We compare the data derived from the CHELSA algorithm with other standard gridded products and station data from the Global Historical Climate Network. We compare the performance of the new climatologies in species distribution modelling and show that we can increase the accuracy of species range predictions. We further show that CHELSA climatological data has a similar accuracy as other products for temperature, but that its predictions of precipitation patterns are better.

Reconstructing paleoclimate fields using online data assimilation with a linear inverse model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perkins, Walter A.; Hakim, Gregory J.

2017-05-01

We examine the skill of a new approach to climate field reconstructions (CFRs) using an online paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA) method. Several recent studies have foregone climate model forecasts during assimilation due to the computational expense of running coupled global climate models (CGCMs) and the relatively low skill of these forecasts on longer timescales. Here we greatly diminish the computational cost by employing an empirical forecast model (linear inverse model, LIM), which has been shown to have skill comparable to CGCMs for forecasting annual-to-decadal surface temperature anomalies. We reconstruct annual-average 2 m air temperature over the instrumental period (1850-2000) using proxy records from the PAGES 2k Consortium Phase 1 database; proxy models for estimating proxy observations are calibrated on GISTEMP surface temperature analyses. We compare results for LIMs calibrated using observational (Berkeley Earth), reanalysis (20th Century Reanalysis), and CMIP5 climate model (CCSM4 and MPI) data relative to a control offline reconstruction method. Generally, we find that the usage of LIM forecasts for online PDA increases reconstruction agreement with the instrumental record for both spatial fields and global mean temperature (GMT). Specifically, the coefficient of efficiency (CE) skill metric for detrended GMT increases by an average of 57 % over the offline benchmark. LIM experiments display a common pattern of skill improvement in the spatial fields over Northern Hemisphere land areas and in the high-latitude North Atlantic-Barents Sea corridor. Experiments for non-CGCM-calibrated LIMs reveal region-specific reductions in spatial skill compared to the offline control, likely due to aspects of the LIM calibration process. Overall, the CGCM-calibrated LIMs have the best performance when considering both spatial fields and GMT. A comparison with the persistence forecast experiment suggests that improvements are associated with the linear dynamical constraints of the forecast and not simply persistence of temperature anomalies.

Large Scale Drivers for the Extreme Storm Season over the North Atlantic and the UK in Winter 2013-14

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Simon; Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2016-04-01

The British Isles experienced exceptional stormy and rainy weather conditions in winter 2013-2014 while large parts of central North America recorded near record minimum surface temperatures values. Potential drivers for these cold conditions include increasingly warm surface waters of the tropical west Pacific. It has been suggested these increasing sea surface temperatures could also be the cause for extreme weather over the Europe, particularly the UK. Testing this hypothesis, we investigate mechanisms linking the tropical west Pacific and European wind storm activity. We will firstly analyse anomaly patterns along such a potential link in winter 2013-14. Secondly, we will investigate whether these identified anomaly patterns show a strong interannual relationship in the recent past. Our results, using primarily ERA-Interim Reanalysis from 1979 to 2014, show an absolute maximum of wind storm frequency over the northeast Atlantic and the British Isles in winter 2013-14. We also find absolute minimum surface temperatures in central North America and increased convective activity over the tropical west Pacific in the same season. The winter 2013-14 was additionally characterized by anomalous warm sea surface temperatures over the subtropical northwest Atlantic. Although the interannual variability of wind storms in the northeast Atlantic and surface temperatures in North America are significantly anti-correlated, we cannot directly relate wind storm frequency with tropical west Pacific anomalies. We thus conclude that the conditions over the Pacific in winter 2013-14 were favourable but not sufficient to explain the record number of wind storms in this season. Instead, we suggest that warm north Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies in combination with cold surface temperatures over North America played a more important role for generating higher wind storm counts over the northeast Atlantic and the UK.

Evaluation of near-surface temperature, humidity, and equivalent temperature from regional climate models applied in type II downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pryor, S. C.; Schoof, J. T.

2016-04-01

Atmosphere-surface interactions are important components of local and regional climates due to their key roles in dictating the surface energy balance and partitioning of energy transfer between sensible and latent heat. The degree to which regional climate models (RCMs) represent these processes with veracity is incompletely characterized, as is their ability to capture the drivers of, and magnitude of, equivalent temperature (Te). This leads to uncertainty in the simulation of near-surface temperature and humidity regimes and the extreme heat events of relevance to human health, in both the contemporary and possible future climate states. Reanalysis-nested RCM simulations are evaluated to determine the degree to which they represent the probability distributions of temperature (T), dew point temperature (Td), specific humidity (q) and Te over the central U.S., the conditional probabilities of Td|T, and the coupling of T, q, and Te to soil moisture and meridional moisture advection within the boundary layer (adv(Te)). Output from all RCMs exhibits discrepancies relative to observationally derived time series of near-surface T, q, Td, and Te, and use of a single layer for soil moisture by one of the RCMs does not appear to substantially degrade the simulations of near-surface T and q relative to RCMs that employ a four-layer soil model. Output from MM5I exhibits highest fidelity for the majority of skill metrics applied herein, and importantly most realistically simulates both the coupling of T and Td, and the expected relationships of boundary layer adv(Te) and soil moisture with near-surface T and q.

Diurnal Cycle of Surface Flows During NAME and Comparison to Model Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciesielski, P. E.; Johnson, R. H.

2007-05-01

During the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) an unprecedented surface data set of winds and thermodynamic variables was collected over the core monsoon region. The surface network included 63 automated sites with 1-30 min resolution data, 27 SMN operational sites (1-3 hourly data), and 56 US operational sites (1-3 hourly data) along the northern fringe of the monsoon region. These data, along with twice daily QuikSCAT oceanic surface winds, were quality controlled and objectively analyzed on to a uniform grid with quarter-degree, 1-h resolution for the period from 1 July - 15 August. An important application of the gridded winds is their use in diagnosing surface vertical motion due to slope flows over the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) terrain. With this dataset we examine the diurnal characteristics of surface fields as the monsoon evolves and compare these analyses to similar surface products from the special North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) for NAME. Observed surface fields indicate that a robust land-sea breeze circulation is present over most of Gulf of California (GOC) region in response to the strong diurnal heating of land masses on both sides of the gulf. For reasons unclear at this time, many features of this land-sea breeze circulation are missing in the NARR. Evolution of the diurnal cycle of temperature and the land- sea breeze circulation as the monsoon progresses through the season shows a strong sensitivity to rainfall over the SMO and the coastal plains. Such a relationship likely reflects changes in land surface characteristics, such as evapotranspiration and albedo, as the forests of the SMO respond to monsoonal rains.

Changes in atmospheric circulation between solar maximum and minimum conditions in winter and summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae Nyung

2008-10-01

Statistically significant climate responses to the solar variability are found in Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and in the tropical circulation. This study is based on the statistical analysis of numerical simulations with ModelE version of the chemistry coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. The low frequency large scale variability of the winter and summer circulation is described by the NAM, the leading Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of geopotential heights. The newly defined seasonal annular modes and its dynamical significance in the stratosphere and troposphere in the GISS ModelE is shown and compared with those in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both the model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more "summer-like" when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum variability over the Asian monsoon region. The corresponding EOF in ModelE has a qualitatively similar structure but with less variability in the Asian monsoon region which is displaced eastward of its observed position. In both the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the GISS GCM, the negative anomalies associated with the NAM in the Euro-Atlantic and Aleutian island regions are enhanced in the solar minimum conditions, though the results are not statistically significant. The difference of the downward propagation of NAM between solar maximum and solar minimum is shown with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. For the winter NAM, a much greater fraction of stratospheric circulation perturbations penetrate to the surface in solar maximum conditions than in minimum conditions. This difference is more striking when the zonal wind direction in the tropics is from the west: when equatorial 50 hPa winds are from the west, no stratospheric signals reach the surface under solar minimum conditions, while over 50 percent reach the surface under solar maximum conditions. This work also studies the response of the tropical circulation to the solar forcing in combination with different atmospheric compositions and with different ocean modules. Four model experiments have been designed to investigate the role of solar forcing in the tropical circulation: one with the present day (PD) greenhouse gases and aerosol conditions, one with the preindustrial (PI) conditions, one with the doubled minimum solar forcing, and finally one with the hybrid-isopycnic ocean model (HYCOM). The response patterns in the tropical humidity and in the vertical motion due to solar forcing are season dependent and spatially heterogeneous. The tropical humidity response from the model experiments are compared with the corresponding differences obtained from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis with all years and with non-ENSO years. Both the model and the reanalysis consistently show that the specific humidity is significantly greater in the convective region in solar maximum compared to solar minimum for January and July. The column integrated humidity in all the model experiments with different composition, different solar forcing, and different ocean module, increased with solar forcing in the tropical band over the Atlantic sector in both seasons. The model's humidity response pattern is generally consistent with the paleoclimate records indicating increased precipitation near the equator that decreases at subtropical to middle latitudes with increased solar output. The differences in the zonally averaged vertical velocities indicate that the ascending branch of the Hadley cell is enhanced and shifted northward, and that the descending branch is weakened and shifted northward in the solar MAX simulation in January. The downward branch of the Hadley cell is strengthened in MAX in July. A possible link of climate response in midlatitudes to solar forcing is also presented by showing changes in zonal mean wind, changes in temperature gradient, and changes in E-P flux.

A WRF sensitivity study for summer ozone and winter PM events in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Z.; Chen, J.; Mahmud, A.; Di, P.; Avise, J.; DaMassa, J.; Kaduwela, A. P.

2014-12-01

Elevated summer ozone and winter PM frequently occur in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SCAB) in California. Meteorological conditions, such as wind, temperature and planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) play crucial roles in these air pollution events. Therefore, accurate representation of these fields from a meteorological model is necessary to successfully reproduce these air pollution events in subsequent air quality model simulations. California's complex terrain and land-sea interface can make it challenging for meteorological models to replicate the atmospheric conditions over the SJV and SCAB during extreme pollution events. In this study, the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) over these two regions for a summer month (July 2012) and a winter month (January 2013) is evaluated with different model configurations and forcing. Different land surface schemes (Pleim-Xiu vs. hybrid scheme), the application of observational and soil nudging, two SST datasets (the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) SST vs. the default SST from North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) reanalysis), and two land use datasets (the National Land Cover Data (NLCD) 2006 40-category vs. USGS 24-category land use data) have been tested. Model evaluation will focus on both surface and vertical profiles for wind, temperature, relative humidity, as well as PBLH. Sensitivity of the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) results to different WRF configurations will also be presented and discussed.

MEaSUREs Land Surface Temperature from GOES Satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinker, Rachel T.; Chen, Wen; Ma, Yingtao; Islam, Tanvir; Borbas, Eva; Hain, Chris; Hulley, Glynn; Hook, Simon

2017-04-01

Information on Land Surface Temperature (LST) can be generated from observations made from satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) such as MODIS and ASTER and by sensors in geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) such as GOES. Under a project titled: "A Unified and Coherent Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity Earth System Data Record for Earth Science" led by Jet Propulsion Laboratory, an effort is underway to develop long term consistent information from both such systems. In this presentation we will describe an effort to derive LST information from GOES satellites. Results will be presented from two approaches: 1) based on regression developed from a wide range of simulations using MODTRAN, SeeBor Version 5.0 global atmospheric profiles and the CAMEL (Combined ASTER and MODIS Emissivity for Land) product based on the standard University of Wisconsin 5 km emissivity values (UWIREMIS) and the ASTER Global Emissivity Database (GED) product; 2) RTTOV radiative transfer model driven with MERRA-2 reanalysis fields. We will present results of evaluation of these two methods against various products, such as MOD11, and ground observations for the five year period of (2004-2008).

On the relationship between the early spring Indian Ocean's sea surface temperature (SST) and the Tibetan Plateau atmospheric heat source in summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Chenxu; Zhang, Yuanzhi; Cheng, Qiuming; Li, Yu; Jiang, Tingchen; San Liang, X.

2018-05-01

In this study, we evaluated the effects of springtime Indian Ocean's sea surface temperature (SST) on the Tibetan Plateau's role as atmospheric heat source (AHS) in summer. The SST data of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature data set (HadISST) and the reanalysis data of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) for 33 years (from 1979 to 2011) were used to analyze the relationship between the Indian Ocean SST and the Tibetan Plateau's AHS in summer, using the approaches that include correlation analysis, and lead-lag analysis. Our results show that some certain strong oceanic SSTs affect the summer plateau heat, specially finding that the early spring SSTs of the Indian Ocean significantly affect the plateau's ability to serve as a heat source in summer. Moreover, the anomalous atmospheric circulation and transport of water vapor are related to the Plateau heat variation.

Modulation of Soil Initial State on WRF Model Performance Over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Haile; Jin, Qinjian; Yi, Bingqi; Mullendore, Gretchen L.; Zheng, Xiaohui; Jin, Hongchun

2017-11-01

The soil state (e.g., temperature and moisture) in a mesoscale numerical prediction model is typically initialized by reanalysis or analysis data that may be subject to large bias. Such bias may lead to unrealistic land-atmosphere interactions. This study shows that the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) dramatically underestimates soil temperature and overestimates soil moisture over most parts of China in the first (0-10 cm) and second (10-25 cm) soil layers compared to in situ observations in July 2013. A correction based on the global optimal dual kriging is employed to correct CFSR bias in soil temperature and moisture using in situ observations. To investigate the impacts of the corrected soil state on model forecasts, two numerical model simulations—a control run with CFSR soil state and a disturbed run with the corrected soil state—were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. All the simulations are initiated 4 times per day and run 48 h. Model results show that the corrected soil state, for example, warmer and drier surface over the most parts of China, can enhance evaporation over wet regions, which changes the overlying atmospheric temperature and moisture. The changes of the lifting condensation level, level of free convection, and water transport due to corrected soil state favor precipitation over wet regions, while prohibiting precipitation over dry regions. Moreover, diagnoses indicate that the remote moisture flux convergence plays a dominant role in the precipitation changes over the wet regions.

Ten-year global distribution of downwelling longwave radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavlakis, K. G.; Hatzidimitriou, D.; Matsoukas, C.; Drakakis, E.; Hatzianastassiou, N.; Vardavas, I.

2003-10-01

Downwelling longwave fluxes, DLFs, have been derived for each month over a ten year period (1984-1993), on a global scale with a resolution of 2.5° × 2.5°. The fluxes were computed using a deterministic model for atmospheric radiation transfer, along with satellite and reanalysis data for the key atmospheric input parameters, i.e. cloud properties, and specific humidity and temperature profiles. The cloud climatologies were taken from the latest released and improved International Satellite Climatology Project D2 series. Specific humidity and temperature vertical profiles were taken from three different reanalysis datasets; NCEP/NCAR, GEOS, and ECMWF (acronyms explained in main text). DLFs were computed for each reanalysis dataset, with differences reaching values as high as 30 Wm-2 in specific regions, particularly over high altitude areas and deserts. However, globally, the agreement is good, with the rms of the difference between the DLFs derived from the different reanalysis datasets ranging from 5 to 7 Wm-2. The results are presented as geographical distributions and as time series of hemispheric and global averages. The DLF time series based on the different reanalysis datasets show similar seasonal and inter-annual variations, and similar anomalies related to the 86/87 El Niño and 89/90 La Niña events. The global ten-year average of the DLF was found to be between 342.2 Wm-2 and 344.3 Wm-2, depending on the dataset. We also conducted a detailed sensitivity analysis of the calculated DLFs to the key input data. Plots are given that can be used to obtain a quick assessment of the sensitivity of the DLF to each of the three key climatic quantities, for specific climatic conditions corresponding to different regions of the globe. Our model downwelling fluxes are validated against available data from ground-based stations distributed over the globe, as given by the Baseline Surface Radiation Network. There is a negative bias of the model fluxes when compared against BSRN fluxes, ranging from -7 to -9 Wm-2, mostly caused by low cloud amount differences between the station and satellite measurements, particularly in cold climates. Finally, we compare our model results with those of other deterministic models and general circulation models.

Ten-year global distribution of downwelling longwave radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavlakis, K. G.; Hatzidimitriou, D.; Matsoukas, C.; Drakakis, E.; Hatzianastassiou, N.; Vardavas, I.

2004-01-01

Downwelling longwave fluxes, DLFs, have been derived for each month over a ten year period (1984-1993), on a global scale with a spatial resolution of 2.5x2.5 degrees and a monthly temporal resolution. The fluxes were computed using a deterministic model for atmospheric radiation transfer, along with satellite and reanalysis data for the key atmospheric input parameters, i.e. cloud properties, and specific humidity and temperature profiles. The cloud climatologies were taken from the latest released and improved International Satellite Climatology Project D2 series. Specific humidity and temperature vertical profiles were taken from three different reanalysis datasets; NCEP/NCAR, GEOS, and ECMWF (acronyms explained in main text). DLFs were computed for each reanalysis dataset, with differences reaching values as high as 30 Wm-2 in specific regions, particularly over high altitude areas and deserts. However, globally, the agreement is good, with the rms of the difference between the DLFs derived from the different reanalysis datasets ranging from 5 to 7 Wm-2. The results are presented as geographical distributions and as time series of hemispheric and global averages. The DLF time series based on the different reanalysis datasets show similar seasonal and inter-annual variations, and similar anomalies related to the 86/87 El Niño and 89/90 La Niña events. The global ten-year average of the DLF was found to be between 342.2 Wm-2 and 344.3 Wm-2, depending on the dataset. We also conducted a detailed sensitivity analysis of the calculated DLFs to the key input data. Plots are given that can be used to obtain a quick assessment of the sensitivity of the DLF to each of the three key climatic quantities, for specific climatic conditions corresponding to different regions of the globe. Our model downwelling fluxes are validated against available data from ground-based stations distributed over the globe, as given by the Baseline Surface Radiation Network. There is a negative bias of the model fluxes when compared against BSRN fluxes, ranging from -7 to -9 Wm-2, mostly caused by low cloud amount differences between the station and satellite measurements, particularly in cold climates. Finally, we compare our model results with those of other deterministic models and general circulation models.

Reconstructing Links between AMOC and Surface Temperature Variability in the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borchert, Leonard; Fischer, Matthias; Müller, Wolfgang; Baehr, Johanna

2016-04-01

Recent studies found an impact of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) through sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and ocean-atmosphere surface heat fluxes (SHFs) on North Atlantic (NA) climate on interannual time scales. Since fluctuations in SSTs and SHFs as well as AMOC and oceanic heat transport (OHT) are highly model dependent and cannot be assumed to be independent of the mean state of the model in use. By using the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) forced with the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR, Compo et al (2011)), we confirm earlier studies and reconstruct for the governing period 1871-2010, that cold SSTs emerge in the Gulf Stream region and warm SSTs emerge in the NA Subpolar Gyre after strong AMOC anomalies at 50° N. The MPIOM in use has an average 1.5° horizontal resolution and 40 vertical non-equidistant depth levels. The model is forced by fluxes of heat, momentum, and freshwater at the air sea boundary through bulk formulas as described in Müller et al (2014). A positive density anomaly in the NA (= higher salinity / lower temperatures) is followed by an intensification of the AMOC and subsequently OHT. The proposed mechanism is examined in more detail studying correlations between AMOC, OHT, SSTs, and SHFs, as well as composite means of SSTs and SHFs in the Atlantic focusing on particularly strong and weak AMOC and OHT states at 50° N. High SSTs are shown to mostly appear simultaneously with upward SHFs and vice versa. The characteristic AMOC anomaly pattern appears in both correlation analysis and composite mean analysis over strong AMOC states after 2-6 years, and seems to occur favorably in winter (DJF). We further demonstrate that a similar, stronger pattern arises from OHT anomalies on similar time scales. Literature: Compo, GP, JS Whitaker, PD Sardeshmukh, N Matsui, RJ Allan, X Yin, BE Gleason, RS Vose, G Rutledge, P Bessemoulin, S Brönnimann, M Brunet, RJ Crouthamel, AN Grant, PY Groisman, PD Jones, MC Kruk, AC Kruger, GJ Marshall, M Mauger, HY Mok, Ø Nordli, TF Ross, RM Trigo, XL Wang, SD Woodruff, SJ Worley (2011): The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project. Q J R Meteorol Soc, 137: 1-28 Müller, W, D Matei, M Bersch, JH Jungclaus, H Haak, K Lohmann, GP Compo, PD Sardeshmukh, J Marotzke (2014): A twentieth-century reanalysis forced ocean model to reconstruct the North Atlantic climate variation during the 1920s. Clim Dyn, 44: 1935-1955

Interdecadal Connection Between Artic Temperature and Summer Precipitation Over the Yangtze River Valley in the CMIP5 Historical Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Yuefeng; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Xiao, Ziniu

2013-10-01

This study assesses the ability of the Phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations in capturing the interdecadal precipitation enhancement over the Yangtze River valley (YRV) and investigates the contributions of Arctic warming to the interdecadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall. Six CMIP5 historical simulations including models from Canada (CCCma), China (BCC), Germany (MPI-M), Japan (MRI), United Kingdom (MOHC), and United States (NCAR) are used. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and observed precipitation are also used for comparison. Among the six CMIP5 simulations, only CCCma can approximately simulate the enhancement of interdecadal summer precipitation over the YRV inmore » 1990-2005 relative to 1960-1975, and the relationships between the summer precipitation with surface temperature (Ts), the 850hPa winds, and 500hPa height field (H500), and between Ts and H500 using regression, correlation, and SVD analyses. It is found that CCCma can reasonably simulate the interdecadal surface warming over the boreal mid-to high latitudes and the Arctic in winter, spring and summer. The summer Baikal blocking appears to be the bridge that links the winter and spring surface warming over the mid-to high latitude and Arctic with the enhancement of summer precipitation over the YRV. Models that missed some or all of these relationships found in CCCma and the reanalysis failed to simulate the interdecadal enhancement of precipitation over the YRV. This points to the importance of high latitude and Arctic processes on interdecadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon and the challenge for global climate models to correctly simulate the linkages.« less

Oceanic influence on seasonal malaria outbreaks over Senegal and Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diouf, Ibrahima; Rodríguez de Fonseca, Belen; Deme, Abdoulaye; Cisse Cisse, Moustapha; Ndione Ndione, Jaques-Andre; Gaye, Amadou T.; Suarez, Roberto

2015-04-01

Beyond assessment and analysis of observed and simulated malaria parameters, this study is furthermore undertaken in the framework of predictability of malaria outbreaks in Senegal and remote regions in Sahel, which are found to take place two months after the rainy season. The predictors are the sea surface temperature anomalous patterns at different ocean basins mainly over the Pacific and Atlantic as they are related to changes in air temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind. A relationship between El Niño and anomalous malaria parameters is found. The malaria parameters are calculated with the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM) using meteorological datasets from different reanalysis products. A hindcast of these parameters is performed using the Sea Surface temperature based Statistical Seasonal ForeCAST (S4CAST) model developed at UCM in order to predict malaria parameters some months in advance. The results of this work will be useful for decision makers to better access to climate forecasts and application on malaria transmission risk.

Influence of atmospheric energy transport on amplification of winter warming in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, Genrikh; Kuzmina, Svetlana; Urazgildeeva, Aleksandra; Bobylev, Leonid

2016-04-01

The study was performed on base reanalysis ERA/Interim to discover the link between amplified warming in the high Arctic and the atmospheric transport of heat and water vapor through the 70 ° N. The partitioning transports across the Atlantic and Pacific "gates" is established the link between variations of atmospheric flux through the "gates" and a larger part of the variability of the average surface air temperature, water vapor content and its trends in the winter 1980-2014. Influence of winter (December-February) atmospheric transport across the Atlantic "gate" at the 1000 hPa on variability of average for January-February surface air temperature to north 70° N is estimated correlation coefficient 0.75 and contribution to the temperature trend 40%. These results for the first time denote the leading role of increasing atmospheric transport on the amplification of winter warming in the high Arctic. The investigation is supported with RFBR project 15-05-03512.

Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Årthun, Marius; Kolstad, Erik W.; Eldevik, Tor; Keenlyside, Noel S.

2018-04-01

Skillful predictions of continental climate would be of great practical benefit for society and stakeholders. It nevertheless remains fundamentally unresolved to what extent climate is predictable, for what features, at what time scales, and by which mechanisms. Here we identify the dominant time scales and sources of European surface air temperature (SAT) variability during the cold season using a coupled climate reanalysis, and a statistical method that estimates SAT variability due to atmospheric circulation anomalies. We find that eastern Europe is dominated by subdecadal SAT variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, whereas interdecadal and multidecadal SAT variability over northern and southern Europe are thermodynamically driven by ocean temperature anomalies. Our results provide evidence that temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean are advected over land by the mean westerly winds and, hence, provide a mechanism through which ocean temperature controls the variability and provides predictability of European SAT.

Extended and refined multi sensor reanalysis of total ozone for the period 1970-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der A, R. J.; Allaart, M. A. F.; Eskes, H. J.

2015-07-01

The ozone multi-sensor reanalysis (MSR) is a multi-decadal ozone column data record constructed using all available ozone column satellite data sets, surface Brewer and Dobson observations and a data assimilation technique with detailed error modelling. The result is a high-resolution time series of 6-hourly global ozone column fields and forecast error fields that may be used for ozone trend analyses as well as detailed case studies. The ozone MSR is produced in two steps. First, the latest reprocessed versions of all available ozone column satellite data sets are collected and then are corrected for biases as a function of solar zenith angle (SZA), viewing zenith angle (VZA), time (trend), and stratospheric temperature using surface observations of the ozone column from Brewer and Dobson spectrophotometers from the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC). Subsequently the de-biased satellite observations are assimilated within the ozone chemistry and data assimilation model TMDAM. The MSR2 (MSR version 2) reanalysis upgrade described in this paper consists of an ozone record for the 43-year period 1970-2012. The chemistry transport model and data assimilation system have been adapted to improve the resolution, error modelling and processing speed. Backscatter ultraviolet (BUV) satellite observations have been included for the period 1970-1977. The total record is extended by 13 years compared to the first version of the ozone multi sensor reanalysis, the MSR1. The latest total ozone retrievals of 15 satellite instruments are used: BUV-Nimbus4, TOMS-Nimbus7, TOMS-EP, SBUV-7, -9, -11, -14, -16, -17, -18, -19, GOME, SCIAMACHY, OMI and GOME-2. The resolution of the model runs, assimilation and output is increased from 2° × 3° to 1° × 1°. The analysis is driven by 3-hourly meteorology from the ERA-Interim reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) starting from 1979, and ERA-40 before that date. The chemistry parameterization has been updated. The performance of the MSR2 analysis is studied with the help of observation-minus-forecast (OmF) departures from the data assimilation, by comparisons with the individual station observations and with ozone sondes. The OmF statistics show that the mean bias of the MSR2 analyses is less than 1 % with respect to de-biased satellite observations after 1979.

Mid-latitude storm track variability and its influence on atmospheric composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowland, K. E.; Doherty, R. M.; Hodges, K.

2013-12-01

Using the storm tracking algorithm, TRACK (Hodges, 1994, 1995, 1999), we have studied the behaviour of storm tracks in the North Atlantic basin, using 850-hPa relative vorticity from the ERA-Interim Re-analysis (Dee et al., 2011). We have correlated surface ozone measurements at rural coastal sites in Europe to the storm track data to explore the role mid-latitude cyclones and their transport of pollutants play in determining surface air quality in Western Europe. To further investigate this relationship, we have used the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition Climate (MACC) Re-analysis dataset (Inness et al., 2013) in TRACK. The MACC Re-analysis is a 10-year dataset which couples a chemistry transport model (Mozart-3; Stein 2009, 2012) to an extended version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS). Storm tracks in the MACC Re-analysis compare well to the storm tracks using the ERA-Interim Re-analysis for the same 10-year period, as both are based on ECMWF IFSs. We also compare surface ozone values from MACC to surface ozone measurements previously studied. Using TRACK, we follow ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) through the life cycle of storms from North America to Western Europe. Along the storm tracks, we examine the distribution of CO and O3 within 6 degrees of the center of each storm and vertically at different pressure levels in the troposphere. We hope to better understand the mechanisms with which pollution is vented from the boundary layer to the free troposphere, as well as transport of pollutants to rural areas. Our hope is to give policy makers more detailed information on how climate variability associated with storm tracks between 1979-2013 may affect air quality in Northeast USA and Western Europe.

Quantifying changes in spatial patterns of surface air temperature dynamics over several decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zappalà, Dario A.; Barreiro, Marcelo; Masoller, Cristina

2018-04-01

We study daily surface air temperature (SAT) reanalysis in a grid over the Earth's surface to identify and quantify changes in SAT dynamics during the period 1979-2016. By analysing the Hilbert amplitude and frequency we identify the regions where relative variations are most pronounced (larger than ±50 % for the amplitude and ±100 % for the frequency). Amplitude variations are interpreted as due to changes in precipitation or ice melting, while frequency variations are interpreted as due to a northward shift of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and to a widening of the rainfall band in the western Pacific Ocean. The ITCZ is the ascending branch of the Hadley cell, and thus by affecting the tropical atmospheric circulation, ITCZ migration has far-reaching climatic consequences. As the methodology proposed here can be applied to many other geophysical time series, our work will stimulate new research that will advance the understanding of climate change impacts.

Forcing and Responses of the Surface Energy Budget at Summit, Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Nathaniel B.

Energy exchange at the Greenland Ice Sheet surface governs surface temperature variability, a factor critical for representing increasing surface melt extent, which portends a rise in global sea level. A comprehensive set of cloud, tropospheric, near-surface and sub-surface measurements at Summit Station is utilized to determine the driving forces and subsequent responses of the surface energy budget (SEB). This budget includes radiative, turbulent, and ground heat fluxes, and ultimately controls the evolution of surface temperature. At Summit Station, clouds radiatively warm the surface in all months with an annual average cloud radiative forcing value of 33 W m -2, largely driven by the occurrence of liquid-bearing clouds. The magnitude of the surface temperature response is dependent on how turbulent and ground heat fluxes modulate changes to radiative forcing. Relationships between forcing terms and responding surface fluxes show that changes in the upwelling longwave radiation compensate for 65-85% (50- 60%) of the total change in radiative forcing in the winter (summer). The ground heat flux is the second largest response term (16% annually), especially during winter. Throughout the annual cycle, the sensible heat flux response is comparatively constant (9%) and latent heat flux response is only 1.5%, becoming more of a factor in modulating surface temperature responses during the summer. Combining annual cycles of these responses with cloud radiative forcing results, clouds warm the surface by an estimated 7.8°C annually. A reanalysis product (ERA-I), operational model (CFSv2), and climate model (CESM) are evaluated utilizing the comprehensive set of SEB observations and process-based relationships. Annually, surface temperatures in each model are warmer than observed with overall poor representation of the coldest surface temperatures. Process-based relationships between different SEB flux terms offer insight into how well a modeling framework represents physical processes and the ability to distinguish errors in forcing versus those in physical representation. Such relationships convey that all three models underestimate the response of surface temperatures to changes in radiative forcing. These results provide a method to expose model deficiencies and indicate the importance of representing surface, sub-surface and boundary-layer processes when portraying cloud impacts on surface temperature variability.

Atmospheric signature of the Agulhas current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stela Nkwinkwa Njouodo, Arielle; Koseki, Shunya; Rouault, Mathieu; Keenlyside, Noel

2017-04-01

Satellite observation and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) are used to map the influence of the Agulhas current on local annual precipitation in Southern Africa. The pressure adjustment mechanism is applied over the Agulhas current region. Results unfold that the narrow band of precipitation above the Agulhas Current is collocated with surface wind convergence, sea surface temperature (SST) Laplacian and sea level pressure (SLP) Laplacian. Relationship between SLP Laplacian and wind convergence is found, with 0.54 correlation coefficient statistically significant. In the free troposphere, the band of precipitation above the Agulhas current is collocated with the wind divergence and the upward motion of wind velocity. The warm waters from the Agulhas current can influence local precipitation.

Studies of the Earth Energy Budget and Water Cycle Using Satellite Observations and Model Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, G. G.; VonderHarr, T. H.; Randel, D. L.; Kidder, S. Q.

1997-01-01

During this research period we have utilized the ERBE data set in comparisons to surface properties and water vapor observations in the atmosphere. A relationship between cloudiness and surface temperature anomalies was found. This same relationship was found in a general circulation model, verifying the model. The attempt to construct a homogeneous time series from Nimbus 6, Nimbus 7 and ERBE data is not complete because we are still waiting for the ERBE reanalysis to be completed. It will be difficult to merge the Nimbus 6 data in because its observations occurred when the average weather was different than the other periods, so regression adjustments are not effective.

Stratospheric Impact of Varying Sea Surface Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.; Nielsen, Jon E.; Waugh, Darryn; Pawson, Steven

2004-01-01

The Finite-Volume General Circulation Model (FVGCM) has been run in 50 year simulations with the: 1) 1949-1999 Hadley Centre sea surface temperatures (SST), and 2) a fixed annual cycle of SSTs. In this presentation we first show that the 1949-1999 FVGCM simulation produces a very credible stratosphere in comparison to an NCEP/NCAR reanalysis climatology. In particular, the northern hemisphere has numerous major and minor stratospheric warming, while the southern hemisphere has only a few over the 50-year simulation. During the northern hemisphere winter, temperatures are both warmer in the lower stratosphere and the polar vortex is weaker than is found in the mid-winter southern hemisphere. Mean temperature differences in the lower stratosphere are shown to be small (less than 2 K), and planetary wave forcing is found to be very consistent with the climatology. We then will show the differences between our varying SST simulation and the fixed SST simulation in both the dynamics and in two parameterized trace gases (ozone and methane). In general, differences are found to be small, with subtle changes in planetary wave forcing that lead to reduced temperatures in the SH and increased temperatures in the NH.

Hydrological responses to dynamically and statistically downscaled climate model output

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilby, R.L.; Hay, L.E.; Gutowski, W.J.; Arritt, R.W.; Takle, E.S.; Pan, Z.; Leavesley, G.H.; Clark, M.P.

2000-01-01

Daily rainfall and surface temperature series were simulated for the Animas River basin, Colorado using dynamically and statistically downscaled output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis. A distributed hydrological model was then applied to the downscaled data. Relative to raw NCEP output, downscaled climate variables provided more realistic stimulations of basin scale hydrology. However, the results highlight the sensitivity of modeled processes to the choice of downscaling technique, and point to the need for caution when interpreting future hydrological scenarios.

Hydrological and Dynamical Characteristics of Summertime Droughts over U.S. Great Plains.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Fong-Chiau; Smith, Eric A.

2001-05-01

A drought pattern and its time evolution over the U.S. Great Plains are investigated from time series of climate divisional monthly mean surface air temperature and total precipitation anomalies. The spatial pattern consists of correlated occurrences of high (low) surface air temperature and deficit (excess) rainfall. The center of maximum amplitude in rain fluctuation is around Kansas City; that of temperature is over South Dakota. Internal consistency between temperature and precipitation variability is the salient feature of the drought pattern. A drought index is used to quantify drought severity for the period 1895-1996. The 12 severest drought months (in order) during this period are June 1933, June 1988, July 1936, August 1983, July 1934, July 1901, June 1931, August 1947, July 1930, June 1936, July 1954, and August 1936. Hydrological conditions are examined using National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis precipitable water (PW) and monthly surface observations from Kansas City, Missouri, and Bismarck, North Dakota, near the drought centers. This analysis explains why droughts exhibit negative surface relative humidity anomalies accompanied by larger than normal monthly mean daily temperature ranges and why maximum PWs are confined to a strip of about 10° longitude from New Mexico and Arizona into the Dakotas and Minnesota.Dynamical conditions are examined using NCEP reanalysis sea level pressures and 500- and 200-mb geopotential heights. The analysis indicates a midtroposphere wave train with positive centers situated over the North Pacific, North America, and the North Atlantic, with negative centers in the southeastern Gulf of Alaska and Davis Strait. Above-normal sea level pressures over New Mexico, the North Atlantic, and the subtropical Pacific along with below-normal sea level pressures over the Gulf of Alaska eastward to Canada, Davis Strait, and Greenland are present during drought periods. The most prominent feature is the strong anticyclone over central North America.On a regional scale, midtropospheric westerly winds are weakened (or become easterly) south of a thermal heat low centered in South Dakota during drought episodes because of the north-south temperature reversal perturbation. The associated westward displaced Bermuda high leads to enhanced low-level warm flow into the Dakotas, thus helping to maintain the reversal in the meridional temperature gradient and the concomitant thermal wind reversal. Enhanced moisture transport from the Gulf of California into the western plains (part of the Great Basin monsoon process) results from the large-scale perturbation pressure pattern. Middle-upper level convergence maintains the water vapor strip east of the Rocky Mountains, while the Mississippi valley undergoes moisture cutoff from both this process and the westward shift in the Bermuda high. The strip of maximum PW then undergoes enhanced solar and infrared absorption that feeds back on the thermal heat low. Surface air temperatures warm while sinking motion balances middle-upper level radiative cooling around the Kansas City area. This is the dynamical coupling that leads to reduced surface relative humidities. The centers of high surface air temperature and deficit rainfall are dynamically consistent with patterns in geopotential heights, vertical velocities, and water vapor amounts.

Impact of DYNAMO observations on NASA GEOS-5 reanalyses and the representation of MJO initiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achuthavarier, D.; Wang, H.; Schubert, S. D.; Sienkiewicz, M.

2017-01-01

This study examines the impact of the Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) campaign in situ observations on NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) reanalyses and the improvements gained thereby in the representation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) initiation processes. To this end, we produced a global, high-resolution (1/4° spatially) reanalysis that assimilates the level-4, quality-controlled DYNAMO upper air soundings from about 87 stations in the equatorial Indian Ocean region along with a companion data-denied control reanalysis. The DYNAMO reanalysis produces a more realistic vertical structure of the temperature and moisture in the central tropical Indian Ocean by correcting the model biases, namely, the cold and dry biases in the lower troposphere and warm bias in the upper troposphere. The reanalysis horizontal winds are substantially improved, in that, the westerly acceleration and vertical shear of the zonal wind are enhanced. The DYNAMO reanalysis shows enhanced low-level diabatic heating, moisture anomalies and vertical velocity during the MJO initiation. Due to the warmer lower troposphere, the deep convection is invigorated, which is evident in convective cloud fraction. The GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) employed in the reanalysis is overall successful in assimilating the additional DYNAMO observations, except for an erroneous model response for medium rain rates, between 700 and 600 hPa, reminiscent of a bias in earlier versions of the AGCM. The moist heating profile shows a sharp decrease there due to the excessive convective rain re-evaporation, which is partly offset by the temperature increment produced by the analysis.

Atmospheric Signature of the Agulhas Current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nkwinkwa Njouodo, Arielle Stela; Koseki, Shunya; Keenlyside, Noel; Rouault, Mathieu

2018-05-01

Western boundary currents play an important role in the climate system by transporting heat poleward and releasing it to the atmosphere. While their influence on extratropical storms and oceanic rainfall is becoming appreciated, their coastal influence is less known. Using satellite and climate reanalysis data sets and a regional atmospheric model, we show that the Agulhas Current is a driver of the observed band of rainfall along the southeastern African coast and above the Agulhas Current. The Agulhas current's warm core is associated with sharp gradients in sea surface temperature and sea level pressure, a convergence of low-level winds, and a co-located band of precipitation. Correlations among wind convergence, sea level pressure, and sea surface temperature indicate that these features show high degree of similarity to those in the Gulf Stream region. Model experiments further indicate that the Agulhas Current mostly impacts convective rainfall.

Monitoring and long-term assessment of the Mediterranean Sea physical state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simoncelli, Simona; Fratianni, Claudia; Clementi, Emanuela; Drudi, Massimiliano; Pistoia, Jenny; Grandi, Alessandro; Del Rosso, Damiano

2017-04-01

The near real time monitoring and long-term assessment of the physical state of the ocean are crucial for the wide CMEMS user community providing a continuous and up to date overview of key indicators computed from operational analysis and reanalysis datasets. This constitutes an operational warning system on particular events, stimulating the research towards a deeper understanding of them and consequently increasing CMEMS products uptake. Ocean Monitoring Indicators (OMIs) of some Essential Ocean Variables have been identified and developed by the Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Centre (MED-MFC) under the umbrella of the CMEMS MYP WG (Multi Year Products Working Group). These OMIs have been operationally implemented starting from the physical reanalysis products and then they have been applied to the operational analyses product. Sea surface temperature, salinity, height as well as heat, water and momentum fluxes at the air-sea interface have been operationally implemented since the reanalysis system development as a real time monitoring of the data production. Their consistency analysis against available observational products or budget values recognized in literature guarantees the high quality of the numerical dataset. The results of the reanalysis validation procedures are yearly published in the QUality Information Document since 2014 available through the CMEMS catalogue (http://marine.copernicus.eu), together with the yearly dataset extension. New OMIs of the winter mixed layer depth, the eddy kinetic energy and the heat content will be presented, in particular we will analyze their time evolution and trends starting from 1987, then we will focus on the recent time period 2013-2016 when reanalysis and analyses datasets overlap to show their consistency beside their different system implementation (i.e. atmospheric forcing, wave coupling, nesting). At the end the focus will be on 2016 sea state and circulation of the Mediterranean Sea and its anomaly with respect to the climatological fields to early detect the 2016 peculiarities.

Understanding Recent Trends in Freezing Level Height over the Tropical Andes Mountains of South America: An Investigation of Reanalysis Products and GEOSCCM Integrations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaitchik, B. F.; Russell, A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2015-12-01

As the global climate warms, the height of the 0°C isotherm - aka the freezing level height (FLH) - rises, especially over mountainous regions. Over the past few decades, FLH in the tropical Andes Mountains of South America has been rising at a rate that is 2 to 3 times faster than would be expected considering the zonally-averaged upper troposphere temperature trends and the recent cooling of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. Rising FLH could have devastating impacts in this region where most of the dry season runoff comes from seasonal snow melt and glacial melt. Yet, is unclear why FLH is rising so rapidly in this particular area and what the quantitative implications will be for tropical Andean water resources. Reanalysis products tend to disagree on the spatial pattern and strength of FLH changes which confounds the issue by making it difficult to uncover the driving mechanisms of these local changes in FLH. Indeed, there are several possible factors that may be contributing to the unprecedented rise in FLH over the Andes (above and beyond the normally expected effects of greenhouse gases) of which the most likely actors are: changes in the state of the tropical Pacific Ocean, changes in sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, shifts in the Hadley cell, indirect effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and recent recovery, and local thermodynamic land-atmosphere feedbacks. To better understand the changes in FLH, which will ultimately contribute to the effort to predict effects on Andean water resources, we analyze FLH in several forcing-separated integrations of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). By separating out the various forcings (greenhouse gases, sea surface temperatures, ozone depleting substances, volcanic eruptions, and solar fluctuations), we are able to develop hypotheses for mechanistic drivers of FLH changes which can be rigorously tested. These efforts will contribute to the understanding of climate change over the tropical Andes Mountains, and over South America more generally, while developing techniques and hypotheses that can be applied to the study of cryosphere environments in other mountainous regions.

Diagnosing Possible Anthropogenic Contributions to Heavy Colorado Rainfall in September 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pall, Pardeep; Patricola, Christina; Wehner, Michael; Stone, Dáithí; Paciorek, Christopher; Collins, William

2015-04-01

Unusually heavy rainfall occurred over the Colorado Front Range during early September 2013, with record or near-record totals recorded in several locations. It was associated predominantly with a stationary large-scale weather pattern (akin to the North American Monsoon, which occurs earlier in the year) that drove a strong plume of deep moisture inland from the Gulf of Mexico against the Front Range foothills. The resulting floods across the South Platte River basin impacted several thousands of people and many homes, roads, and businesses. To diagnose possible anthropogenic contributions to the odds of such heavy rainfall, we adapt an existing event attribution paradigm of modelling an 'event that was' for September 2013 and comparing it to a modelled 'event that might have been' for that same time but for the absence of historical anthropogenic drivers of climate. Specifically, we first perform 'event that was' simulations with the regional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 12 km resolution over North America, driven by NCEP2 re-analysis. We then re-simulate, having adjusted the re-analysis to 'event that might have been conditions' by modifying atmospheric greenhouse gas and other pollutant concentrations, temperature, humidity, and winds, as well as sea ice coverage, and sea-surface temperatures - all according to estimates from global climate model simulations. Thus our findings are highly conditional on the driving re-analysis and adjustments therein, but the setup allows us to elucidate possible mechanisms responsible for heavy Colorado rainfall in September 2013. Our model results suggests that, given an insignificant change in the pattern of large-scale driving weather, there is an increase in atmospheric water vapour under anthropogenic climate warming leading to a substantial increase in the probability of heavy rainfall occurring over the South Platte River basin in September 2013.

Diagnosing Possible Anthropogenic Contributions to Heavy Colorado Rainfall in September 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pall, P.; Patricola, C. M.; Wehner, M. F.; Stone, D. A.; Paciorek, C. J.; Collins, W.

2014-12-01

Unusually heavy rainfall occurred over the Colorado Front Range during early September 2013, with record or near-record totals recorded in several locations. It was associated predominantly with a stationary large-scale weather pattern (akin to the North American Monsoon, which occurs earlier in the year) that drove a strong plume of deep moisture inland from the Gulf of Mexico against the Front Range foothills. The resulting floods impacted several thousands of people and many homes, roads, and businesses. To diagnose possible anthropogenic contributions to the odds of such heavy rainfall, we adapt an existing event attribution paradigm of modelling a 'world that was' for September 2013 and comparing it to a modelled 'world that might have been' for that same time but for the absence of historical anthropogenic drivers of climate. Specifically, we first perform 'world that was' simulations with the regional WRF model at 12 km resolution over North America, driven by NCEP2 re-analysis. We then re-simulate, having adjusted the re-analysis to 'world that might have been conditions' by modifying atmospheric greenhouse gas and other pollutant concentrations, temperature, humidity, and winds, as well as sea ice coverage, and sea-surface temperatures - all according to estimates from global climate model simulations. Thus our findings are highly conditional on the driving re-analysis and adjustments therein, but the setup allows us to elucidate possible mechanisms responsible for heavy Colorado rainfall in September 2013. For example, preliminary analysis suggests that, given no change in the pattern of large-scale driving weather, there is an increase in atmospheric water vapour under anthropogenic climate warming leading to a substantial increase in the odds of heavy rainfall over the Front Range.

The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baehr, J.; Fröhlich, K.; Botzet, M.; Domeisen, D. I. V.; Kornblueh, L.; Notz, D.; Piontek, R.; Pohlmann, H.; Tietsche, S.; Müller, W. A.

2015-05-01

A seasonal forecast system is presented, based on the global coupled climate model MPI-ESM as used for CMIP5 simulations. We describe the initialisation of the system and analyse its predictive skill for surface temperature. The presented system is initialised in the atmospheric, oceanic, and sea ice component of the model from reanalysis/observations with full field nudging in all three components. For the initialisation of the ensemble, bred vectors with a vertically varying norm are implemented in the ocean component to generate initial perturbations. In a set of ensemble hindcast simulations, starting each May and November between 1982 and 2010, we analyse the predictive skill. Bias-corrected ensemble forecasts for each start date reproduce the observed surface temperature anomalies at 2-4 months lead time, particularly in the tropics. Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies show a small root-mean-square error and predictive skill up to 6 months. Away from the tropics, predictive skill is mostly limited to the ocean, and to regions which are strongly influenced by ENSO teleconnections. In summary, the presented seasonal prediction system based on a coupled climate model shows predictive skill for surface temperature at seasonal time scales comparable to other seasonal prediction systems using different underlying models and initialisation strategies. As the same model underlying our seasonal prediction system—with a different initialisation—is presently also used for decadal predictions, this is an important step towards seamless seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions.

Deriving a sea surface temperature record suitable for climate change research from the along-track scanning radiometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merchant, C. J.; Llewellyn-Jones, D.; Saunders, R. W.; Rayner, N. A.; Kent, E. C.; Old, C. P.; Berry, D.; Birks, A. R.; Blackmore, T.; Corlett, G. K.; Embury, O.; Jay, V. L.; Kennedy, J.; Mutlow, C. T.; Nightingale, T. J.; O'Carroll, A. G.; Pritchard, M. J.; Remedios, J. J.; Tett, S.

We describe the approach to be adopted for a major new initiative to derive a homogeneous record of sea surface temperature for 1991 2007 from the observations of the series of three along-track scanning radiometers (ATSRs). This initiative is called (A)RC: (Advanced) ATSR Re-analysis for Climate. The main objectives are to reduce regional biases in retrieved sea surface temperature (SST) to less than 0.1 K for all global oceans, while creating a very homogenous record that is stable in time to within 0.05 K decade-1, with maximum independence of the record from existing analyses of SST used in climate change research. If these stringent targets are achieved, this record will enable significantly improved estimates of surface temperature trends and variability of sufficient quality to advance questions of climate change attribution, climate sensitivity and historical reconstruction of surface temperature changes. The approach includes development of new, consistent estimators for SST for each of the ATSRs, and detailed analysis of overlap periods. Novel aspects of the approach include generation of multiple versions of the record using alternative channel sets and cloud detection techniques, to assess for the first time the effect of such choices. There will be extensive effort in quality control, validation and analysis of the impact on climate SST data sets. Evidence for the plausibility of the 0.1 K target for systematic error is reviewed, as is the need for alternative cloud screening methods in this context.

Improved Stratospheric Temperature Retrievals for Climate Reanalysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rokke, L.; Joiner, J.

1999-01-01

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) is embarking on plans to generate a twenty year reanalysis data set of climatic atmospheric variables. One of the focus points will be in the evaluation of the dynamics of the stratosphere. The Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU), flown as part of the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS), is one of the primary stratospheric temperature sensors flown consistently throughout the reanalysis period. Seven unique sensors made the measurements over time, with individual instrument characteristics that need to be addressed. The stratospheric temperatures being assimilated across satellite platforms will profoundly impact the reanalysis dynamical fields. To attempt to quantify aspects of instrument and retrieval bias we are carefully collecting and analyzing all available information on the sensors, their instrument anomalies, forward model errors and retrieval biases. For the retrieval of stratospheric temperatures, we adapted the minimum variance approach of Jazwinski (1970) and Rodgers (1976) and applied it to the SSU soundings. In our algorithm, the state vector contains an initial guess of temperature from a model six hour forecast provided by the Goddard EOS Data Assimilation System (GEOS/DAS). This is combined with an a priori covariance matrix, a forward model parameterization, and specifications of instrument noise characteristics. A quasi-Newtonian iteration is used to obtain convergence of the retrieved state to the measurement vector. This algorithm also enables us to analyze and address the systematic errors associated with the unique characteristics of the cell pressures on the individual SSU instruments and the resolving power of the instruments to vertical gradients in the stratosphere. The preliminary results of the improved retrievals and their assimilation as well as baseline calculations of bias and rms error between the NESDIS operational product and col-located ground measurements will be presented.

The Climate Response to Explosive Volcanism in the Last Millennium Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emile-Geay, J.; Erb, M. P.; Hakim, G. J.; Anchukaitis, K. J.; Toohey, M.; Steig, E. J.

2017-12-01

Explosive volcanism substantially affects the climate system via the direct effect of radiative forcing anomalies and ensuing influences on, and feedback to, major modes of ocean-atmosphere variability. Eruptions therefore offer unparalleled natural experiments with which to study the climate response to stratospheric aerosol loading. While the instrumental record provides a few, modest examples of such eruptions, the Common Era provides a much larger sample with more dramatic instances [Sigl et al, Nature, 2015]. Here we leverage the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR, Hakim et al [JGR-Atm, 2016]), to probe the climate response to explosive volcanism. LMR fuses information from general circulation models and a recent multiproxy compilation [PAGES 2k Consortium, Sci Data, 2017] to depict Common Era climate: surface temperature, 500mb geopotential height, precipitation and drought indices are reconstructed at annual resolution over the past 2,000 years, with error estimates. Using forcing estimates from Toohey & Sigl [ESDD, 2017], the reconstructions shows a 0.2K cooling following the 20 largest eruptions since 750, with maximum impacts over Northern Eurasia and western North America. Comparison to the N-TREND temperature reconstruction [Anchukaitis et al, QSR 2017], which uses a completely independent methodology, shows remarkable agreement in the magnitude and spatial patterns. Surprisingly, reconstructed temperature recovers slowly (10-15y) after major eruptions, a result at odds with conventional wisdom [Robock, Rev. Geophys. 2000] but consistent with modeling results [Pausata et al, PNAS, 2015], and suggestive of an active role for ocean dynamics. Preliminary results show a marginally significant, El Niño-like sea-surface temperature response immediately after the eruption, accompanied by a significant weakening of the Walker circulation and a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. A comparison to PMIP3 simulations shows greater magnitudes of volcanic cooling and shorter recovery times. We explore plausible scenarios for this discrepancy.

Method and Early Results of Applying the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) in the Third Global Reanalysis of NCEP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, J.; Mitchell, K.; Wei, H.; Yang, R.; Kumar, S.; Geiger, J.; Xie, P.

2008-05-01

Over the past several years, the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the U.S. National Weather Service has developed a Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). For its computational infrastructure, the GLDAS applies the NASA Land Information System (LIS), developed by the Hydrological Science Branch of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The land model utilized in the NCEP GLDAS is the NCEP Noah Land Surface Model (Noah LSM). This presentation will 1) describe how the GLDAS component has been included in the development of NCEP's third global reanalysis (with special attention to the input sources of global precipitation), and 2) will present results from the GLDAS component of pilot tests of the new NCEP global reanalysis. Unlike NCEP's past two global reanalysis projects, this new NCEP global reanalysis includes both a global land data assimilation system (GLDAS) and a global ocean data assimilation system (GODAS). The new global reanalysis will span 30-years (1979-2008) and will include a companion realtime operational component. The atmospheric, ocean, and land states of this global reanalysis will provide the initial conditions for NCEP's 3rd- generation global coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS). NCEP is now preparing to launch a 28-year seasonal reforecast project with its new CFS, to provide the reforecast foundation for operational NCEP seasonal climate forecasts using the new CFS. Together, the new global reanalysis and companion CFS reforecasts constitute what NCEP calls the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) project. Compared to the previous two generations of NCEP global reanalysis, the hallmark of the GLDAS component of CFSRR is GLDAS use of global analyses of observed precipitation to drive the land surface component of the reanalysis (rather than the typical reanalysis approach of using precipitation from the assimilating background atmospheric model). Specifically, the GLDAS merges two global analyses of observed precipitation produced by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of NCEP, as follows: 1) a new CPC daily gauge-only land-only global precipitation analysis at 0.5-degree resolution and 2) the well-known CPC CMAP global 2.0 x 2.5 degree 5-day precipitation analysis, which utilizes satellite estimates of precipitation, as well as some gauge observations. The presentation will describe how these two analyses are merged with latitude-dependent weights that favor the gauge-only analysis in mid-latitudes and the satellite-dominated CMAP analysis in tropical latitudes. Finally, we will show some impacts of using GLDAS to initialize the land states of seasonal CFS reforecasts, versus using the previous generation of NCEP global reanalysis as the source for CFS initial land states.

Status and Plans for Reanalysis at NASA/GMAO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gelaro, Ron

2017-01-01

Reanalysis plays a critical role in GMAOs goal to enhance NASA's program of Earth observations, providing vital data sets for climate research and the development of future missions. As the breadth of NASAs observations expands to include multiple components of the Earth system, so does the need to assimilate observations from currently uncoupled components of the system in a more physically consistent manner. GMAOs most recent reanalysis of the satellite era, MERRA-2, has completed the period 1980-present, and is now running as a continuing global climate analysis with two- to three-week latency. MERRA-2 assimilates meteorological and aerosol observations as a weakly coupled assimilation system as a first step toward GMAOs longer term goal of developing an integrated Earth system analysis (IESA) capability that will couple assimilation systems for the atmosphere, ocean, land and chemistry. The GMAO strategy is to progress incrementally toward an IESA through an evolving combination of coupled systems and offline component reanalyses driven by, for example, MERRA-2 atmospheric forcing. Most recently, the GMAO has implemented a weakly coupled assimilation scheme for analyzing ocean skin temperature within the existing atmospheric analysis. The scheme uses background fields from a near-surface ocean diurnal layer model to assimilate surface-sensitive radiances plus in-situ observations along with all other observations in the atmospheric assimilation system. In addition, MERRA-2-driven simulations of the ocean (plus sea ice) and atmospheric chemistry (for the EOS period) are currently underway, as is the development of a coupled atmosphere-ocean assimilation system. This talk will describe the status of these ongoing efforts and the planned steps toward an IESA capability for climate research.

Does using different modern climate datasets impact pollen-based paleoclimate reconstructions in North America during the past 2,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ladd, Matthew; Viau, Andre

2013-04-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions rely on the accuracy of modern climate datasets for calibration of fossil records under the assumption of climate normality through time, which means that the modern climate operates in a similar manner as over the past 2,000 years. In this study, we show how using different modern climate datasets have an impact on a pollen-based reconstruction of mean temperature of the warmest month (MTWA) during the past 2,000 years for North America. The modern climate datasets used to explore this research question include the: Whitmore et al., (2005) modern climate dataset; North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR); National Center For Environmental Prediction (NCEP); European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) ERA-40 reanalysis; WorldClim, Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) and New et al., which is derived from the CRU dataset. Results show that some caution is advised in using the reanalysis data on large-scale reconstructions. Station data appears to dampen out the variability of the reconstruction produced using station based datasets. The reanalysis or model-based datasets are not recommended for paleoclimate large-scale North American reconstructions as they appear to lack some of the dynamics observed in station datasets (CRU) which resulted in warm-biased reconstructions as compared to the station-based reconstructions. The Whitmore et al. (2005) modern climate dataset appears to be a compromise between CRU-based datasets and model-based datasets except for the ERA-40. In addition, an ultra-high resolution gridded climate dataset such as WorldClim may only be useful if the pollen calibration sites in North America have at least the same spatial precision. We reconstruct the MTWA to within +/-0.01°C by using an average of all curves derived from the different modern climate datasets, demonstrating the robustness of the procedure used. It may be that the use of an average of different modern datasets may reduce the impact of uncertainty of paleoclimate reconstructions, however, this is yet to be determined with certainty. Future evaluation using for example the newly developed Berkeley earth surface temperature datasets should be tested against the paleoclimate record.

Technical Note: On the Use of Nudging for Aerosol-Climate Model Intercomparison Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Kai; Wan, Hui; Liu, Xiaohong

2014-08-26

Nudging is an assimilation technique widely used in the development and evaluation of climate models. Con- straining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the artificial forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the relatively strong sensitivity of homogeneous icemore » nucleation to aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on longwave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. This suggests that nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy, especially for studies that involve both warm and cold clouds.« less

Extension of the SIM Hydrometeorological Reanalysis Over the Entire 20th Century by Combination of Observations and Statistical Downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minvielle, M.; Céron, J.; Page, C.

2013-12-01

The SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM) system is a combination of three different components: an atmospheric analysis system (SAFRAN) providing the atmospheric forcing for a land surface model (ISBA) that computes surface water and energy budgets and a hydrological model (MODCOU) that provides river flows and level of several aquifers. The variables generated by the SIM chain constitute the SIM reanalysis and the current version only covers the 1958-2012 period. However, long climate datasets are required for evaluation and verification of climate hindcasts/forecasts and to isolate the contribution of natural decadal variability from that of anthropogenic forcing to climate variations. The aim of this work is to extend of the fine-mesh SIM reanalysis to the entire 20th century, especially focusing on temperature and rainfall over France, but also soil wetness and river flows. This extension will first allow a detailed investigation of the influence of decadal variability on France at very fine spatial scales and will provide crucial information for climate model evaluation. Before 1958, the density of available observations from Météo-France necessary to force SAFRAN (rainfall, snow, wind, temperature, humidity, cloudiness) is much lower than today, and not sufficient to produce a correct SIM reanalysis. That's why is has been decided to use the available atmospheric observations over the past decades combined to a statistical downscaling algorithm to overcome the lack of observations. The DSCLIM software package implemented by the CERFACS and using a weather typing based statistical methodology will be used as statistical downscaling method to reconstruct the atmospheric variables necessary to force the ISBA-MODCOU hydrological component. The first stage of this work was to estimate and compare the bias and strengths of the two approaches in their ability to reconstruct the past decades. In this sense, SIM hydro-meteorological experiments were performed for some recent years, with a number of observations artificially reduced to a number similar to years 1910, 1930 and 1950. Concurrently, the same recent years have been downscaled by DSCLIM and used to force ISBA-MODCOU. Afterwards, some additional experiments with some modified parameters in the DSCLIM algorithm have been performed in order to adapt the methodology to the study case, and thus trying to improve its performances. Several configurations of the DSCLIM algorithm were applied to the entire century, using the NOAA20CR reanalysis as large-scale predictor. The reconstructed atmospheric variables are compared to the available observations over the entire century to estimate the ability of the statistical downscaling method to reproduce a correct interannual to multidecadal variability. Finally, a novel method is tested: available observations over past decades are introduced in the DSCLIM algorithm, in order to obtain a reconstructed dataset as realistic as possible.

Analysis of Climatic and Environmental Changes Using CLEARS Web-GIS Information-Computational System: Siberia Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titov, A. G.; Gordov, E. P.; Okladnikov, I.; Shulgina, T. M.

2011-12-01

Analysis of recent climatic and environmental changes in Siberia performed on the basis of the CLEARS (CLimate and Environment Analysis and Research System) information-computational system is presented. The system was developed using the specialized software framework for rapid development of thematic information-computational systems based on Web-GIS technologies. It comprises structured environmental datasets, computational kernel, specialized web portal implementing web mapping application logic, and graphical user interface. Functional capabilities of the system include a number of procedures for mathematical and statistical analysis, data processing and visualization. At present a number of georeferenced datasets is available for processing including two editions of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, JMA/CRIEPI JRA-25 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA-40 and ERA Interim Reanalysis, meteorological observation data for the territory of the former USSR, and others. Firstly, using functionality of the computational kernel employing approved statistical methods it was shown that the most reliable spatio-temporal characteristics of surface temperature and precipitation in Siberia in the second half of 20th and beginning of 21st centuries are provided by ERA-40/ERA Interim Reanalysis and APHRODITE JMA Reanalysis, respectively. Namely those Reanalyses are statistically consistent with reliable in situ meteorological observations. Analysis of surface temperature and precipitation dynamics for the territory of Siberia performed on the base of the developed information-computational system reveals fine spatial and temporal details in heterogeneous patterns obtained for the region earlier. Dynamics of bioclimatic indices determining climate change impact on structure and functioning of regional vegetation cover was investigated as well. Analysis shows significant positive trends of growing season length accompanied by statistically significant increase of sum of growing degree days and total annual precipitation over the south of Western Siberia. In particular, we conclude that analysis of trends of growing season length, sum of growing degree-days and total precipitation during the growing season reveals a tendency to an increase of vegetation ecosystems productivity across the south of Western Siberia (55°-60°N, 59°-84°E) in the past several decades. The developed system functionality providing instruments for comparison of modeling and observational data and for reliable climatological analysis allowed us to obtain new results characterizing regional manifestations of global change. It should be added that each analysis performed using the system leads also to generation of the archive of spatio-temporal data fields ready for subsequent usage by other specialists. In particular, the archive of bioclimatic indices obtained will allow performing further detailed studies of interrelations between local climate and vegetation cover changes, including changes of carbon uptake related to variations of types and amount of vegetation and spatial shift of vegetation zones. This work is partially supported by RFBR grants #10-07-00547 and #11-05-01190-a, SB RAS Basic Program Projects 4.31.1.5 and 4.31.2.7.

Projections of meteorological and snow conditions in the Pyrenees using adjusted EURO-CORDEX climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verfaillie, Deborah; Déqué, Michel; Morin, Samuel; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel; Lafaysse, Matthieu

2017-04-01

Current and future availability of seasonal snow is a recurring topic in mountain regions such as the Pyrenees, where winter tourism and hydropower production are large contributors to the regional revenues in France, Spain and Andorra. Associated changes in river discharges, their consequences on water storage management, the future vulnerability of Pyrenean ecosystems as well as the occurrence of climate-related hazards such as debris flows and avalanches are also under consideration. However, to generate projections of snow conditions, a traditional dynamical downscaling approach featuring spatial resolutions typically between 10 and 50 km is not sufficient to capture the fine-scale processes and thresholds at play. Indeed, the altitudinal resolution matters, since the phase of precipitation is mainly controlled by the temperature which is altitude-dependent. Moreover, simulations from general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) suffer from biases compared to local observations, and often provide outputs at too coarse time resolution to drive impact models. RCM simulations must therefore be adjusted before they can be used to drive specific models such as land surface models. In this study, time series of hourly temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity, and short- and longwave radiation were generated over the Pyrenees for the period 1950-2100, by using a new approach (named ADAMONT for ADjustment of RCM outputs to MOuNTain regions) based on quantile mapping applied to daily data, followed by time disaggregation accounting for weather patterns selection. Meteorological observations used for the quantile mapping consist of the regional scale reanalysis SAFRAN, which operates at the scale of homogeneous areas on the order of 1000 km2 within which meteorological conditions vary only with elevation. SAFRAN combines large-scale NWP reanalysis (ERA40, ARPEGE) with in-situ meteorological observations. The SAFRAN reanalysis is available over the entire Pyrenean chain since 1980. Outputs from EURO-CORDEX simulations spanning 6 different RCMs forced by 6 different GCMs under 3 representative concentration pathways scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) over Europe were downscaled at the massif scale and for 300 m elevation bands and statistically adjusted against the SAFRAN reanalysis. These corrected fields were then used to force the SURFEX/ISBA-Crocus land surface model over the Pyrenees. Here we present as an example a reanalysis and future projections (using adjusted EURO-CORDEX data) of meteorological and snow conditions obtained using this method at the site of La Mongie in the French Pyrenees, which we compare to in-situ observations carried out since the 1970s. These results further enable us to identify and apportion the main drivers for changes in snow conditions at the site, and the various uncertainty components at play. This work is a direct contribution of the French GICC ADAMONT project, and of the Interreg project "Clim'Py", aiming to develop the Pyrenean Observatory of Climate Change.

Maintaining Atmospheric Mass and Water Balance Within Reanalysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Takacs, Lawrence L.; Suarez, Max; Todling, Ricardo

2015-01-01

This report describes the modifications implemented into the Goddard Earth Observing System Version-5 (GEOS-5) Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS) to maintain global conservation of dry atmospheric mass as well as to preserve the model balance of globally integrated precipitation and surface evaporation during reanalysis. Section 1 begins with a review of these global quantities from four current reanalysis efforts. Section 2 introduces the modifications necessary to preserve these constraints within the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis procedure, and the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) algorithm. Section 3 presents experiments quantifying the impact of the new procedure. Section 4 shows preliminary results from its use within the GMAO MERRA-2 Reanalysis project. Section 5 concludes with a summary.

Comparison of MERRA-2 and ECCO-v4 ocean surface heat fluxes: Consequences of different forcing feedbacks on ocean circulation and implications for climate data assimilation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strobach, E.; Molod, A.; Menemenlis, D.; Forget, G.; Hill, C. N.; Campin, J. M.; Heimbach, P.

2017-12-01

Forcing ocean models with reanalysis data is a common practice in ocean modeling. As part of this practice, prescribed atmospheric state variables and interactive ocean SST are used to calculate fluxes between the ocean and the atmosphere. When forcing an ocean model with reanalysis fields, errors in the reanalysis data, errors in the ocean model and errors in the forcing formulation will generate a different solution compared to other ocean reanalysis solutions (which also have their own errors). As a first step towards a consistent coupled ocean-atmosphere reanalysis, we compare surface heat fluxes from a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), to heat fluxes from a state-of-the-art oceanic reanalysis, the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean Version 4, Release 2 (ECCO-v4). Then, we investigate the errors associated with the MITgcm ocean model in its ECCO-v4 ocean reanalysis configuration (1992-2011) when it is forced with MERRA-2 atmospheric reanalysis fields instead of with the ECCO-v4 adjoint optimized ERA-interim state variables. This is done by forcing ECCO-v4 ocean with and without feedbacks from MERRA-2 related to turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture and the outgoing long wave radiation. In addition, we introduce an intermediate forcing method that includes only the feedback from the interactive outgoing long wave radiation. The resulting ocean circulation is compared with ECCO-v4 reanalysis and in-situ observations. We show that, without feedbacks, imbalances in the energy and the hydrological cycles of MERRA-2 (which are directly related to the fact it was created without interactive ocean) result in considerable SST drifts and a large reduction in sea level. The bulk formulae and interactive outgoing long wave radiation, although providing air-sea feedbacks and reducing model-data misfit, strongly relax the ocean to observed SST and may result in unwanted features such as large change in the water budget. These features have implications in on desired forcing recipe to be used. The results strongly and unambiguously argue for next generation data assimilation climate studies to involve fully coupled systems.

A North American regional reanalysis climatology of the Haines Index

Treesearch

Wei Lu; Joseph J. (Jay) Charney; Sharon Zhong; Xindi Bian; Shuhua Liu

2011-01-01

A warm-season (May through October) Haines Index climatology is derived using 32-km regional reanalysis temperature and humidity data from 1980 to 2007. We compute lapse rates, dewpoint depressions, Haines Index factors A and B, and values for each of the low-, mid- and high-elevation variants of the Haines Index. Statistical techniques are used to investigate the...

Evaluation of Cloud Fraction and Radiative Fluxes in Recent Reanalyses over the Arctic using Surface and Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zib, B.; Dong, X.; Xi, B.; Kennedy, A. D.

2010-12-01

Reanalysis datasets can be an essential tool for investigating numerous climate parameters, especially in data-sparse regions like the Arctic. Where long-term continuous data is limited, reanalyses offer a resource for the recognition and analysis of change in a sensitive and complex coupled Arctic climate system. A study focused on the evaluation and intercomparison of four relatively new global reanalysis datasets will be conducted. The four new reanalyses being investigated include: (i) NASA-MERRA, (ii) NCEP-CFS, (iii) NOAA-20CR, and (iv) NCEP-DOE II. In this study, the cloud fraction and TOA radiative fluxes simulated from four reanalyses over the entire Arctic region will be compared with those derived from NASA MODIS and CERES sensors during the period 2000-2008. The surface radiative fluxes derived in each reanalysis will also be compared and validated by the BSRN surface observations during the period 1994-2008. The high latitude BSRN sites used in this study are Barrow, Alaska (BAR) and Ny Alesund, Svalbard, Norway (NYA). BSRN offers high time resolution solar and atmospheric radiation measurements from high accuracy instruments that provide a baseline for validating reanalysis estimates of surface radiation. In addition to downwelling radiation fluxes, cloud fraction from the reanalyses will also be evaluated by the Vaisala ceilometer derived cloud fraction at the Barrow, AK site. The ultimate goal of this study is to quantitatively estimate the uncertainties or biases of cloud fraction and TOA and surface radiative fluxes derived from four different recent reanalyses using highly qualified long-term surface and satellite observations as ground truth over the Arctic region.

Causes of the large warm bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone in the Norwegian Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koseki, Shunya; Keenlyside, Noel; Demissie, Teferi; Toniazzo, Thomas; Counillon, Francois; Bethke, Ingo; Ilicak, Mehmet; Shen, Mao-Lin

2018-06-01

We have investigated the causes of the sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) of the southeastern Atlantic Ocean simulated by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Similar to other coupled-models, NorESM has a warm SST bias in the ABFZ of up to 8 °C in the annual mean. Our analysis of NorESM reveals that a cyclonic surface wind bias over the ABFZ drives a locally excessively strong southward (0.05 m/s (relative to observation)) Angola Current displacing the ABFZ southward. A series of uncoupled stand-alone atmosphere and ocean model simulations are performed to investigate the cause of the coupled model bias. The stand-alone atmosphere model driven with observed SST exhibits a similar cyclonic surface circulation bias; while the stand-alone ocean model forced with the reanalysis data produces a warm SST in the ABFZ with a magnitude approximately half of that in the coupled NorESM simulation. An additional uncoupled sensitivity experiment shows that the atmospheric model's local negative surface wind curl generates anomalously strong Angola Current at the ocean surface. Consequently, this contributes to the warm SST bias in the ABFZ by 2 °C (compared to the reanalysis forced simulation). There is no evidence that local air-sea feedbacks among wind stress curl, SST, and sea level pressure (SLP) affect the ABFZ SST bias. Turbulent surface heat flux differences between coupled and uncoupled experiments explain the remaining 2 °C warm SST bias in NorESM. Ocean circulation, upwelling and turbulent heat flux errors all modulate the intensity and the seasonality of the ABFZ errors.

The importance of wind-flux feedbacks during the November CINDY-DYNAMO MJO event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley Dellaripa, Emily; Maloney, Eric; van den Heever, Susan

2015-04-01

High-resolution, large-domain cloud resolving model (CRM) simulations probing the importance of wind-flux feedbacks to Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) convection are performed for the November 2011 CINDY-DYNAMO MJO event. The work is motivated by observational analysis from RAMA buoys in the Indian Ocean and TRMM precipitation retrievals that show a positive correlation between MJO precipitation and wind-induced surface fluxes, especially latent heat fluxes, during and beyond the CINDY-DYNAMO time period. Simulations are done using Colorado State University's Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). The domain setup is oceanic and spans 1000 km x 1000 km with 1.5 km horizontal resolution and 65 stretched vertical levels centered on the location of Gan Island - one of the major CINDY-DYNAMO observation points. The model is initialized with ECMWF reanalysis and Aqua MODIS sea surface temperatures. Nudging from ECMWF reanalysis is applied at the domain periphery to encourage realistic evolution of MJO convection. The control experiment is run for the entire month of November so both suppressed and active, as well as, transitional phases of the MJO are modeled. In the control experiment, wind-induced surface fluxes are activated through the surface bulk aerodynamic formula and allowed to evolve organically. Sensitivity experiments are done by restarting the control run one week into the simulation and controlling the wind-induced flux feedbacks. In one sensitivity experiment, wind-induced surface flux feedbacks are completely denied, while in another experiment the winds are kept constant at the control simulations mean surface wind speed. The evolution of convection, especially on the mesoscale, is compared between the control and sensitivity simulations.

Recent Reanalysis Activities at ECMWF: Results from ERA-20C and Plans for ERA5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dragani, R.; Hersbach, H.; Poli, P.; Pebeuy, C.; Hirahara, S.; Simmons, A.; Dee, D.

2015-12-01

This presentation will provide an overview of the most recent reanalysis activities performed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). A pilot reanalysis of the 20th-century (ERA-20C) has recently been completed. Funded through the European FP7 collaborative project ERA-CLIM, ERA-20C is part of a suite of experiments that also includes a model-only integration (ERA-20CM) and a land-surface reanalysis (ERA-20CL). Its data assimilation system is constrained by only surface observations obtained from ISPD (3.2.6) and ICOADS (2.5.1). Surface boundary conditions are provided by the Hadley Centre (HadISST2.1.0.0) and radiative forcing follows CMIP5 recommended data sets. First-guess uncertainty estimates are based on a 10-member ensemble of Data Assimilations, ERA-20C ensemble, run prior to ERA-20C using ten SST and sea-ice realizations from the Hadley Centre. In November 2014, the European Commission entrusted ECMWF to run on its behalf the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) aiming at producing quality-assured information about the past, current and future states of the climate at both European and global scales. Reanalysis will be one of the main components of the C3S portfolio and the first one to be produced is a global modern era reanalysis (ERA5) covering the period from 1979 onwards. Based on a recent version of the ECMWF data assimilation system, ERA5 will replace the widely used ERA-Interim dataset. This new production will benefit from a much improved model, and better characterized and exploited observations compared to its predecessor. The first part of the presentation will focus on the ERA-20C production, provide an overview of its main characteristics and discuss some of the key results from its assessment. The second part of the talk will give an overview of ERA5, and briefly discuss some of its challenges.

Mechanisms for the cooling of the central eastern Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Chunlei; Allan, Richard

2017-04-01

The sea surface temperature variation over the Central Eastern Pacific (CEP) controls the global mean surface temperature variation (Kosaka and Xie, 2013). The regional cooling over CEP is directly linked to the surface warming slowdown in last twenty years. It is important to understand the mechanisms of the CEP cooling in the warming climate in order to have a robust prediction of the future climate change. Previous studies showed the CEP cooling is related to the pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades, which is sufficient to account for the cooling of the CEP and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake in the Pacific shallow overturning cells and equatorial upwelling in the CEP (England et al., 2014). By analysing the cloud data, Zhou et al. (2016) showed the increase of the lower cloud cover (LCC) over the CEP area contributed to the cooling, resulting in positive local feedback and negative global feedback. Using the data from observations, ERA-Interim reanalysis and atmospheric climate simulations, our study shows that the increasing Latent Heat (LH) also plays an important role in the CEP cooling (Liu et al., 2015). After the sensitivity test using the bulk formula, it showed that both wind and total column water vapour content contribute to the cooling trends of the SST in CEP. The observed trends of the wind and LH in CEP also confirmed this. England et al. (2014) Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 222-227, doi:10.1038/nclimate2106. Kosaka, Y., and S. P. Xie (2013), Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling, Nature, 501, 403-407, doi:10.1038/nature12534. Liu et al. (2015) Combining satellite observations and reanalysis energy transports to estimate global net surface energy fluxes 1985-2012. J. Geophys. Res. , Atmospheres. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: 10.1002/2015JD023264. Zhou et al. (2016) Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth's energy budget, Nature Geoscience 9, 871-874 (2016) doi:10.1038/ngeo2828.

Vegetation greenness impacts on maximum and minimum temperatures in northeast Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanamean, J. R.; Pielke, R.A.; Castro, C. L.; Ojima, D.S.; Reed, Bradley C.; Gao, Z.

2003-01-01

The impact of vegetation on the microclimate has not been adequately considered in the analysis of temperature forecasting and modelling. To fill part of this gap, the following study was undertaken.A daily 850–700 mb layer mean temperature, computed from the National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis, and satellite-derived greenness values, as defined by NDVI (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index), were correlated with surface maximum and minimum temperatures at six sites in northeast Colorado for the years 1989–98. The NDVI values, representing landscape greenness, act as a proxy for latent heat partitioning via transpiration. These sites encompass a wide array of environments, from irrigated-urban to short-grass prairie. The explained variance (r2 value) of surface maximum and minimum temperature by only the 850–700 mb layer mean temperature was subtracted from the corresponding explained variance by the 850–700 mb layer mean temperature and NDVI values. The subtraction shows that by including NDVI values in the analysis, the r2 values, and thus the degree of explanation of the surface temperatures, increase by a mean of 6% for the maxima and 8% for the minima over the period March–October. At most sites, there is a seasonal dependence in the explained variance of the maximum temperatures because of the seasonal cycle of plant growth and senescence. Between individual sites, the highest increase in explained variance occurred at the site with the least amount of anthropogenic influence. This work suggests the vegetation state needs to be included as a factor in surface temperature forecasting, numerical modeling, and climate change assessments.

Climate modeling for Yamal territory using supercomputer atmospheric circulation model ECHAM5-wiso

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denisova, N. Y.; Gribanov, K. G.; Werner, M.; Zakharov, V. I.

2015-11-01

Dependences of monthly means of regional averages of model atmospheric parameters on initial and boundary condition remoteness in the past are the subject of the study. We used atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5-wiso for simulation of monthly means of regional averages of climate parameters for Yamal region and different periods of premodeling. Time interval was varied from several months to 12 years. We present dependences of model monthly means of regional averages of surface temperature, 2 m air temperature and humidity for December of 2000 on duration of premodeling. Comparison of these results with reanalysis data showed that best coincidence with true parameters could be reached if duration of pre-modelling is approximately 10 years.

Recent Improvements in Retrieving Near-Surface Air Temperature and Humidity Using Microwave Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, J. Brent

2010-01-01

Detailed studies of the energy and water cycles require accurate estimation of the turbulent fluxes of moisture and heat across the atmosphere-ocean interface at regional to basin scale. Providing estimates of these latent and sensible heat fluxes over the global ocean necessitates the use of satellite or reanalysis-based estimates of near surface variables. Recent studies have shown that errors in the surface (10 meter)estimates of humidity and temperature are currently the largest sources of uncertainty in the production of turbulent fluxes from satellite observations. Therefore, emphasis has been placed on reducing the systematic errors in the retrieval of these parameters from microwave radiometers. This study discusses recent improvements in the retrieval of air temperature and humidity through improvements in the choice of algorithms (linear vs. nonlinear) and the choice of microwave sensors. Particular focus is placed on improvements using a neural network approach with a single sensor (Special Sensor Microwave/Imager) and the use of combined sensors from the NASA AQUA satellite platform. The latter algorithm utilizes the unique sampling available on AQUA from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A). Current estimates of uncertainty in the near-surface humidity and temperature from single and multi-sensor approaches are discussed and used to estimate errors in the turbulent fluxes.

Decadal variability of tropical tropopause temperature and its relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

PubMed

Wang, Wuke; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Latif, Mojib

2016-07-12

Tropopause temperatures (TPTs) control the amount of stratospheric water vapour, which influences chemistry, radiation and circulation in the stratosphere, and is also an important driver of surface climate. Decadal variability and long-term trends in tropical TPTs as well as stratospheric water vapour are largely unknown. Here, we present for the first time evidence, from reanalysis and state-of-the-art climate model simulations, of a link between decadal variability in tropical TPTs and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The negative phase of the PDO is associated with anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical east and central Pacific, which enhance the zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific. The latter drives a stronger Walker Circulation and a weaker Hadley Circulation, which leads to less convection and subsequently a warmer tropopause over the central equatorial Pacific. Over the North Pacific, positive sea level pressure anomalies occur, which damp vertical wave propagation into the stratosphere. This in turn slows the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and hence warms the tropical tropopause, enabling more water vapour to enter the stratosphere. The reverse chain of events holds for the positive phase of the PDO. Such ocean-troposphere-stratosphere interactions may provide an important feedback on the Earth's global surface temperature.

Decadal variability of tropical tropopause temperature and its relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

PubMed Central

Wang, Wuke; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Latif, Mojib

2016-01-01

Tropopause temperatures (TPTs) control the amount of stratospheric water vapour, which influences chemistry, radiation and circulation in the stratosphere, and is also an important driver of surface climate. Decadal variability and long-term trends in tropical TPTs as well as stratospheric water vapour are largely unknown. Here, we present for the first time evidence, from reanalysis and state-of-the-art climate model simulations, of a link between decadal variability in tropical TPTs and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The negative phase of the PDO is associated with anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical east and central Pacific, which enhance the zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific. The latter drives a stronger Walker Circulation and a weaker Hadley Circulation, which leads to less convection and subsequently a warmer tropopause over the central equatorial Pacific. Over the North Pacific, positive sea level pressure anomalies occur, which damp vertical wave propagation into the stratosphere. This in turn slows the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and hence warms the tropical tropopause, enabling more water vapour to enter the stratosphere. The reverse chain of events holds for the positive phase of the PDO. Such ocean-troposphere-stratosphere interactions may provide an important feedback on the Earth’s global surface temperature. PMID:27404090

Forced synchronization of large-scale circulation to increase predictability of surface states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Mao-Lin; Keenlyside, Noel; Selten, Frank; Wiegerinck, Wim; Duane, Gregory

2016-04-01

Numerical models are key tools in the projection of the future climate change. The lack of perfect initial condition and perfect knowledge of the laws of physics, as well as inherent chaotic behavior limit predictions. Conceptually, the atmospheric variables can be decomposed into a predictable component (signal) and an unpredictable component (noise). In ensemble prediction the anomaly of ensemble mean is regarded as the signal and the ensemble spread the noise. Naturally the prediction skill will be higher if the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is larger in the initial conditions. We run two ensemble experiments in order to explore a way to reduce the SNR of surface winds and temperature. One ensemble experiment is AGCM with prescribing sea surface temperature (SST); the other is AGCM with both prescribing SST and nudging the high-level temperature and winds to ERA-Interim. Each ensemble has 30 members. Larger SNR is expected and found over the tropical ocean in the first experiment because the tropical circulation is associated with the convection and the associated surface wind convergence as these are to a large extent driven by the SST. However, small SNR is found over high latitude ocean and land surface due to the chaotic and non-synchronized atmosphere states. In the second experiment the higher level temperature and winds are forced to be synchronized (nudged to reanalysis) and hence a larger SNR of surface winds and temperature is expected. Furthermore, different nudging coefficients are also tested in order to understand the limitation of both synchronization of large-scale circulation and the surface states. These experiments will be useful for the developing strategies to synchronize the 3-D states of atmospheric models that can be later used to build a super model.

What caused the Extreme Storm Season over the North Atlantic and the UK in Winter 2013-14?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G. C.; Wild, S.; Befort, D. J.

2015-12-01

In winter 2013-2014, the UK experienced exceptional stormy and rainy weather conditions. Concurrently, surface temperatures over large parts of central North America fell to near record minimum values. One potential driver for these cold conditions is discussed to be the increasingly warm surface waters of the tropical west Pacific. It has been suggested these increasing sea surface temperatures could also be the cause for extreme weather over the British Isles. Testing this hypothesis, we investigate mechanisms linking the tropical west Pacific and European wind storm activity. We focus on two research questions. Firstly: Was a chain of anomaly patterns with origin in the west Pacific present in the winter 2013-14? And secondly: Can centres of action along such a chain be identified with a strong interannual relationship in the recent past? Our results, using primarily ERA-Interim Reanalysis from 1979 to 2014, show an absolute maximum of wind storm frequency over the northeast Atlantic and the British Isles in winter 2013-14. We also find absolute minimum surface temperatures in central North America and increased convective activity over the tropical west Pacific in the same season. The winter 2013-14 was additionally characterized by anomalous warm sea surface temperatures over the subtropical northwest Atlantic. Although the interannual variability of wind storms in the northeast Atlantic and surface temperatures in North America are significantly anti-correlated, we cannot directly relate wind storm frequency with tropical west Pacific anomalies. We thus conclude that the conditions over the Pacific in winter 2013-14 were favourable but not sufficient to explain the record number of wind storms in this season. Instead, we suggest that warm north Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies in combination with cold surface temperatures over North America played a more important role for generating higher wind storm counts over the northeast Atlantic and the UK.

Variability of Winter Air Temperature in Mid-Latitude Europe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, J.; Ardizzone, J.; Atlas, R.; Bungato, D.; Cierniewski, J.; Jusem, J. C.; Przybylak, R.; Schubert, S.; Starr, D.; Walczewski, J.

2002-01-01

The aim of this paper is to report extreme winter/early-spring air temperature (hereinafter temperature) anomalies in mid-latitude Europe, and to discuss the underlying forcing to these interannual fluctuations. Warm advection from the North Atlantic in late winter controls the surface-air temperature, as indicated by the substantial correlation between the speed of the surface southwesterlies over the eastern North Atlantic (quantified by a specific Index Ina) and the 2-meter level air temperatures (hereinafter Ts) over Europe, 45-60 deg N, in winter. In mid-March and subsequently, the correlation drops drastically (quite often it is negative). This change in the relationship between Ts and Ina marks a transition in the control of the surface-air temperature: absorption of insolation replaces the warm advection as the dominant control. This forcing by maritime-air advection in winter was demonstrated in a previous publication, and is re-examined here in conjunction with extreme fluctuations of temperatures in Europe. We analyze here the interannual variability at its extreme by comparing warm-winter/early-spring of 1989/90 with the opposite scenario in 1995/96. For these two December-to-March periods the differences in the monthly mean temperature in Warsaw and Torun, Poland, range above 10 C. Short-term (shorter than a month) fluctuations of the temperature are likewise very strong. We conduct pentad-by-pentad analysis of the surface-maximum air temperature (hereinafter Tmax), in a selected location, examining the dependence on Ina. The increased cloudiness and higher amounts of total precipitable water, corollary effects to the warm low-level advection. in the 1989/90 winter, enhance the positive temperature anomalies. The analysis of the ocean surface winds is based on the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) dataset; ascent rates, and over land wind data are from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); maps of 2-m temperature, cloud cover and precipitable water are from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis.

The Extremely Warm Early Winter 2000 in Europe: What is the Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, J.; Angell, J. K.; Atlas, R.; Ardizzone, J.; Demaree, G.; Jusem, J. C.; Koslowsky, D.; Terry, J.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

High variability characterizes the winter climate of central Europe: interannual fluctuations in the surface-air temperature as large as 18 C over large areas are fairly common. The extraordinary early-winter 2000 in Europe appears to be a departure to an unprecedented extreme of the existing climate patterns. Such anomalous events affect agriculture, forestry, fuel consumption, etc., and thus deserve in-depth analysis. Our analysis indicates that the high anomalies of the surface-air temperature are predominantly due to the southwesterly flow from the eastern North Atlantic, with a weak contribution by southerly flow from the western Mediterranean. Backward trajectories based on the SSM/I and NCEP Reanalysis datasets traced from west-central Europe indicate that the warm air masses flowing into Europe originate in the southern North Atlantic, where the surface-air temperatures exceed by 15c or more the climatic norms in Europe for late-November or early-December. Because such large ocean-to-continent temperature differences characterize the winter conditions, we refer to this episode which started in late November as occurring in the early winter. In this season, with the sun low over the horizon in Europe, absorption of insolation by the surface has little significance. The effect of cloudiness, a corollary to the low-level maritime-air advection, is a warming by a reduction of heat loss (greenhouse effect). In contrast, in the summer, clouds, by reducing absorption of insolation, produce a cooling, effect at the surface.

Comparison of the ocean surface vector winds from atmospheric reanalysis and scatterometer-based wind products over the Nordic Seas and the northern North Atlantic and their application for ocean modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dukhovskoy, Dmitry S.; Bourassa, Mark A.; Petersen, Gudrún Nína; Steffen, John

2017-03-01

Ocean surface vector wind fields from reanalysis data sets and scatterometer-derived gridded products are analyzed over the Nordic Seas and the northern North Atlantic for the time period from 2000 to 2009. The data sets include the National Center for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis 2 (NCEPR2), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR), Cross-Calibrated Multiplatform (CCMP) wind product version 1.1 and recently released version 2.0, and QuikSCAT. The goal of the study is to assess discrepancies across the wind vector fields in the data sets and demonstrate possible implications of these differences for ocean modeling. Large-scale and mesoscale characteristics of winds are compared at interannual, seasonal, and synoptic timescales. A cyclone tracking methodology is developed and applied to the wind fields to compare cyclone characteristics in the data sets. Additionally, the winds are evaluated against observations collected from meteorological buoys deployed in the Iceland and Irminger Seas. The agreement among the wind fields is better for longer time and larger spatial scales. The discrepancies are clearly apparent for synoptic timescales and mesoscales. CCMP, ASR, and CFSR show the closest overall agreement with each other. Substantial biases are found in the NCEPR2 winds. Numerical sensitivity experiments are conducted with a coupled ice-ocean model forced by different wind fields. The experiments demonstrate differences in the net surface heat fluxes during storms. In the experiment forced by NCEPR2 winds, there are discrepancies in the large-scale wind-driven ocean dynamics compared to the other experiments.

Advancing Best Practices for the Formulation of Localized Sea Level Rise/Coastal Inundation Extremes Scenarios for Military Installations in the Pacific Islands

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-14

Development Program SLP - Sea Level Pressure SOI - Southern Oscillation Index SON - Statement of Need SST - Sea Surface Temperature iv SWL - Still Water...Level Pressure ( SLP ) from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis). Midway has known wave setup (Aucan et al., 2012) so we explored to what extent we could find an 12...Guam ONI 0.9 Kwajalein ONI 1.1 Pago Pago ONI 1.0 Honolulu SLP 1.3 Nawiliwili SLP 1.4 Kahului SLP 1.2 Hilo SLP 1.3 Mokuoloe SLP 1.2 Naha PDO 1.0 Kawaihae

Evaluation of the Reanalysis Surface Incident Shortwave Radiation Products from NCEP, ECMWF, GSFC, and JMA using Satellite and Surface Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Liang, S.; Wang, G.; Yao, Y.; Jiang, B.; Cheng, J.

2016-12-01

Solar radiation incident at the Earth's surface (Rs) is an essential component of the total energy exchange between the atmosphere and the surface. Reanalysis data have been widely used, but a comprehensive validation using surface measurements is still highly needed. In this study, we evaluated the Rs estimates from six current representative global reanalyses [NCEP-NCAR, NCEP-DOE; CFSR; ERA-Interim; MERRA; and JRA-55] using surface measurements from different observation networks [GEBA; BSRN; GC-NET; Buoy; and CMA] (674 sites in total) and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) EBAF product from 2001 to 2009. The global mean biases between the reanalysis Rs and surface measurements at all sites ranged from 11.25 W/m2 to 49.80 W/m2. Comparing with the CERES-EBAF Rs product, all the reanalyses overestimate Rs, except for ERA-Interim, with the biases ranging from -2.98 W/m2 to 21.97 W/m2 over the globe. It was also found that the biases of cloud fraction (CF) in the reanalyses caused the overestimation of Rs. After removing the averaged bias of CERES-EBAF, weighted by the area of the latitudinal band, a global annual mean Rs values of 184.6 W/m2, 180.0 W/m2, and 182.9 W/m2 was obtained over land, ocean, and the globe, respectively.

Arctic atmospheric preconditioning: do not rule out shortwave radiation just yet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sedlar, J.

2017-12-01

Springtime atmospheric preconditioning of Arctic sea ice for enhanced or buffered sea ice melt during the subsequent melt year has received considerable research focus in recent years. A general consensus points to enhanced poleward atmospheric transport of moisture and heat during spring, effectively increasing the emission of longwave radiation to the surface. Studies have essentially ruled out the role of shortwave radiation as an effective preconditioning mechanism because of the relatively weak incident solar radiation and high surface albedo from sea ice and snow during spring. These conclusions, however, are derived primarily from atmospheric reanalysis data, which may not always represent an accurate depiction of the Arctic climate system. Here, observations of top of atmosphere radiation from state of the art satellite sensors are examined and compared with reanalysis and climate model data to examine the differences in the spring radiative budget over the Arctic Ocean for years with extreme low/high ice extent at the end of the ice melt season (September). Distinct biases are observed between satellite-based measurements and reanalysis/models, particularly for the amount of shortwave radiation trapped (warming effect) within the Arctic climate system during spring months. A connection between the differences in reanalysis/model surface albedo representation and the albedo observed by satellite is discussed. These results suggest that shortwave radiation should not be overlooked as a significant contributing mechanism to springtime Arctic atmospheric preconditioning.

The impact of gravity waves and cloud nucleation threshold on stratospheric water and tropical tropospheric cloud fraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoeberl, Mark; Dessler, Andrew; Ye, Hao; Wang, Tao; Avery, Melody; Jensen, Eric

2016-08-01

Using the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and MERRA-2 reanalysis winds, temperatures, and anvil cloud ice, we explore the impact of varying the cloud nucleation threshold relative humidity (RH) and high-frequency gravity waves on stratospheric water vapor (H2O) and upper tropical tropopause cloud fraction (TCF). Our model results are compared to 2008/2009 winter TCF derived from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization and H2O observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). The RH threshold affects both model H2O and TCF, while high-frequency gravity waves mostly impact TCF. Adjusting the nucleation RH and the amplitude of high-frequency gravity waves allows us to tune the model to observations. Reasonable observational agreement is obtained with a nucleation threshold between 130% and 150% RH consistent with airborne observations. For the MERRA reanalysis, we lower the tropopause temperature by 0.5 K roughly consistent with GPS radio occultation measurements and include ~0.1 K high-frequency gravity wave temperature oscillations in order to match TCF and H2O observations. For MERRA-2 we do not need to adjust the tropopause temperature nor add gravity waves, because there are sufficient high-frequency temperature oscillations already present in the MERRA-2 reanalysis to reproduce the observed TCF.

Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol-climate model intercomparison studies

DOE PAGES

Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; ...

2014-04-24

Nudging is an assimilation technique widely used in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity of simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosolmore » concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on longwave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy for the investigation of aerosol indirect effects through ice clouds, since it provides well-constrained meteorology without strongly perturbing the model's mean climate.« less

Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol-climate model intercomparison studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; Ghan, S. J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, P.-L.; Rasch, P. J.

2014-04-01

Nudging is an assimilation technique widely used in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity of simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on longwave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy for the investigation of aerosol indirect effects through ice clouds, since it provides well-constrained meteorology without strongly perturbing the model's mean climate.

Annual minimum temperature variations in early 21st century in Punjab, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jahangir, Misbah; Maria Ali, Syeda; Khalid, Bushra

2016-01-01

Climate change is a key emerging threat to the global environment. It imposes long lasting impacts both at regional and national level. In the recent era, global warming and extreme temperatures have drawn great interest to the scientific community. As in a past century considerable increase in global surface temperatures have been observed and predictions revealed that it will continue in the future. In this regard, current study mainly focused on analysis of regional climatic change (annual minimum temperature trends and its correlation with land surface temperatures in the early 21st century in Punjab) for a period of 1979-2013. The projected model data European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) has been used for eight Tehsils of Punjab i.e., annual minimum temperatures and annual seasonal temperatures. Trend analysis of annual minimum and annual seasonal temperature in (Khushab, Noorpur, Sargodha, Bhalwal, Sahiwal, Shahpur, Sillanwali and Chinoit) tehsils of Punjab was carried out by Regression analysis and Mann-Kendall test. Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) data was used in comparison with Model data for the month of May from the years 2000, 2009 and 2010. Results showed that no significant trends were observed in annual minimum temperature. A significant change was observed in Noorpur, Bhalwal, Shahpur, Sillanwali, Sahiwal, Chinoit and Sargodha tehsils during spring season, which indicated that this particular season was a transient period of time.

Reconstruction of Arctic surface temperature in past 100 years using DINEOF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiyi; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong

2015-04-01

Global annual mean surface temperature has not risen apparently since 1998, which is described as global warming hiatus in recent years. However, measuring of temperature variability in Arctic is difficult because of large gaps in coverage of Arctic region in most observed gridded datasets. Since Arctic has experienced a rapid temperature change in recent years that called polar amplification, and temperature risen in Arctic is faster than global mean, the unobserved temperature in central Arctic will result in cold bias in both global and Arctic temperature measurement compared with model simulations and reanalysis datasets. Moreover, some datasets that have complete coverage in Arctic but short temporal scale cannot show Arctic temperature variability for long time. Data Interpolating Empirical Orthogonal Function (DINEOF) were applied to fill the coverage gap of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP 250km smooth) product in Arctic with IABP dataset which covers entire Arctic region between 1979 and 1998, and to reconstruct Arctic temperature in 1900-2012. This method provided temperature reconstruction in central Arctic and precise estimation of both global and Arctic temperature variability with a long temporal scale. Results have been verified by extra independent station records in Arctic by statistical analysis, such as variance and standard deviation. The result of reconstruction shows significant warming trend in Arctic in recent 30 years, as the temperature trend in Arctic since 1997 is 0.76°C per decade, compared with 0.48°C and 0.67°C per decade from 250km smooth and 1200km smooth of GISTEMP. And global temperature trend is two times greater after using DINEOF. The discrepancies above stress the importance of fully consideration of temperature variance in Arctic because gaps of coverage in Arctic cause apparent cold bias in temperature estimation. The result of global surface temperature also proves that global warming in recent years is not as slow as thought.

A Northward Shift of the North Atlantic Ocean Intertropical Convergence Zone in Response to Summertime Saharan Dust Outbreaks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilcox, Eric M.; Lau, K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2010-01-01

The influence on the summertime North Atlantic Ocean inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) of Saharan dust outbreaks is explored using nine years of continuous satellite observations and atmospheric reanalysis products. During dust outbreak events rainfall along the ITCZ shifts northward by 1 to 4 degrees latitude. Dust outbreaks coincide with warmer lower-tropospheric temperatures compared to low dust conditions, which is attributable to advection of the warm Saharan Air Layer, enhanced subtropical subsidence, and radiative heating of dust. The enhanced positive meridional temperature gradient coincident with dust outbreaks is accompanied by an acceleration of the easterly winds on the n011h side of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ). The center of the positive vorticity region south of the AEJ moves north drawing the center of low-level convergence and ITCZ rainfall northward with it. The enhanced precipitation on the north side of the ITCZ occurs in spite of widespread sea surface temperature cooling north of the ITCZ owing to reduced surface solar insolation by dust scattering.

The GEOS-iODAS: Description and Evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vernieres, Guillaume; Rienecker, Michele M.; Kovach, Robin; Keppenne, Christian L.

2012-01-01

This report documents the GMAO's Goddard Earth Observing System sea ice and ocean data assimilation systems (GEOS iODAS) and their evolution from the first reanalysis test, through the implementation that was used to initialize the GMAO decadal forecasts, and to the current system that is used to initialize the GMAO seasonal forecasts. The iODAS assimilates a wide range of observations into the ocean and sea ice components: in-situ temperature and salinity profiles, sea level anomalies from satellite altimetry, analyzed SST, and sea-ice concentration. The climatological sea surface salinity is used to constrain the surface salinity prior to the Argo years. Climatological temperature and salinity gridded data sets from the 2009 version of the World Ocean Atlas (WOA09) are used to help constrain the analysis in data sparse areas. The latest analysis, GEOS ODAS5.2, is diagnosed through detailed studies of the statistics of the innovations and analysis departures, comparisons with independent data, and integrated values such as volume transport. Finally, the climatologies of temperature and salinity fields from the Argo era, 2002-2011, are presented and compared with the WOA09.

Interannual variability of the annual cycle of the surface temperature in the NCAR-NCEP reanalysis over the Northern Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesouro, M.; Gimeno, L.; Añel, J. A.; de La Torre, L.; Nieto, R.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.

2003-04-01

The seasonal cycle of the surface temperature in the Northern Atlantic was investigated with the aim of studying interannual variability. To know how seasonal cycle is influenced by main climate modes could be a powerful tool to improve our seasonal prediction abilities. Data consist of daily temperatures at 2 metres taken from the Climate Research Unit (University of East Anglic_UK) (www.cru.uea.ac.uk) corresponding to the region from 90 W to 90 E longitude and from 88.5 N to 21.9 N latitude and for the last 44 years. Daily data were adjusted to the following expression for each year: y=a+b*sin(((2*PI)/d)x+c) The amplitude of the wave and the first inflexion point were used as indicators of the seasonal cycle. Results show a negative correlation between the NAO index and the amplitude over Northern Europe and over Mexico and a positive correlation over Northern United States and Canada. They also show a negative correlation between the NAO index and the first inflexion point over Northern Europe.

Reanalysis Intercomparison on a Surface Wind Statistical Downscaling Exercise over Northeastern North America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucio-Eceiza, Etor E.; Fidel González-Rouco, J.; Navarro, Jorge; García-Bustamante, Elena; Beltrami, Hugo; Rojas-Labanda, Cristina

2017-04-01

The area of North Eastern North America is located in a privileged position for the study of the wind behaviour as it lies within the track of many of the extratropical cyclones that travel that half of the continent. During the winter season the cyclonic activity and wind intensity are higher in the region, offering a great opportunity to analyse the relationships of the surface wind field with various large-scale configurations. The analysis of the wind behaviour is conducted via a statistical downscaling method based on Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). This methodology exploits the relationships among the main modes of circulation over the North Atlantic and Pacific Sectors and the behaviour of an observational surface wind database. For this exercise, various predictor variables have been selected (surface wind, SLP, geopotential height at 850 and 500 hPa, and thermal thickness between these two levels), obtained by all the global reanalysis products available to date. Our predictand field consists of an observational surface wind dataset with 525 sites distributed over North Eastern North America that span over a period of about 60 years (1953-2010). These data have been previously subjected to an exhaustive quality control process. A sensitivity analysis of the methodology to different parameter configurations has been carried out, such as reanalysis product, window size, predictor variables, number of retained EOF and CCA modes, and crossvalidation subset (to test the robustness of the method). An evaluation of the predictive skill of the wind estimations has also been conducted. Overall, the methodology offers a good representation of the wind variability, which is very consistent between all the reanalysis products. The wind directly obtained from the reanalyses offer a better temporal correlation but a larger range, and in many cases, worst representation of the local variability. The long observational period has also permitted the study of intra to multidecadal variability as the statistical relationship obtained by this method also allows for the reconstruction of the regional wind behaviour back to the mid 19th century. For this task we have used two 20th century reanalysis products as well as two additional instrumental sea level pressure datasets.

An intercomparison of GCM and RCM dynamical downscaling for characterizing the hydroclimatology of California and Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Z.; Rhoades, A.; Johansen, H.; Ullrich, P. A.; Collins, W. D.

2017-12-01

Dynamical downscaling is widely used to properly characterize regional surface heterogeneities that shape the local hydroclimatology. However, the factors in dynamical downscaling, including the refinement of model horizontal resolution, large-scale forcing datasets and dynamical cores, have not been fully evaluated. Two cutting-edge global-to-regional downscaling methods are used to assess these, specifically the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) and the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, under different horizontal resolutions (28, 14, and 7 km). Two groups of WRF simulations are driven by either the NCEP reanalysis dataset (WRF_NCEP) or VR-CESM outputs (WRF_VRCESM) to evaluate the effects of the large-scale forcing datasets. The impacts of dynamical core are assessed by comparing the VR-CESM simulations to the coupled WRF_VRCESM simulations with the same physical parameterizations and similar grid domains. The simulated hydroclimatology (i.e., total precipitation, snow cover, snow water equivalent and surface temperature) are compared with the reference datasets. The large-scale forcing datasets are critical to the WRF simulations in more accurately simulating total precipitation, SWE and snow cover, but not surface temperature. Both the WRF and VR-CESM results highlight that no significant benefit is found in the simulated hydroclimatology by just increasing horizontal resolution refinement from 28 to 7 km. Simulated surface temperature is sensitive to the choice of dynamical core. WRF generally simulates higher temperatures than VR-CESM, alleviates the systematic cold bias of DJF temperatures over the California mountain region, but overestimates the JJA temperature in California's Central Valley.

North Pacific Cloud Feedbacks Inferred from Synoptic-Scale Dynamic and Thermodynamic Relationships

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, Joel R.; Iacobellis, Sam F.

2005-01-01

This study analyzed daily satellite cloud observations and reanalysis dynamical parameters to determine how mid-tropospheric vertical velocity and advection over the sea surface temperature gradient control midlatitude North Pacific cloud properties. Optically thick clouds with high tops are generated by synoptic ascent, but two different cloud regimes occur under synoptic descent. When vertical motion is downward during summer, extensive stratocumulus cloudiness is associated with near surface northerly wind, while frequent cloudless pixels occur with southerly wind. Examinations of ship-reported cloud types indicates that midlatitude stratocumulus breaks up as the the boundary level decouples when it is advected equatorward over warmer water. Cumulus is prevalent under conditions of synoptic descent and cold advection during winter. Poleward advection of subtropical air over colder water causes stratification of the near-surface layer that inhibits upward mixing of moisture and suppresses cloudiness until a fog eventually forms. Averaging of cloud and radiation data into intervals of 500-hPa vertical velocity and advection over the SST gradient enables the cloud response to changes in temperature and the stratification of the lower troposphere to be investigated independent of the dynamics.

Reanalysis of the 1893 heat wave in France through offline data assimilation in a downscaled ensemble meteorological reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devers, Alexandre; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Lauvernet, Claire; Graff, Benjamin

2017-04-01

The knowledge of historical French weather has recently been improved through the development of the SCOPE (Spatially COherent Probabilistic Extended) Climate reconstruction, a probabilistic high-resolution daily reconstruction of precipitation and temperature covering the period 1871-2012 and based on the statistical downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (Caillouet et al., 2016). However, historical surface observations - even though rather scarce and sparse - do exist from at least the beginning of the period considered, and this information does not currently feed SCOPE Climate reconstructions. The goal of this study is therefore to assimilate these historical observations into SCOPE Climate reconstructions in order to build a 150-year meteorological reanalysis over France. This study considers "offline" data assimilation methods - Kalman filtering methods like the Ensemble Square Root Filter - that have successfully been used in recent paleoclimate studies, i.e. at much larger temporal and spatial scales (see e.g. Bhend et al., 2012). These methods are here applied for reconstructing the 8-24 August 1893 heat wave in France, using all available daily temperature observations from that period. Temperatures reached that summer were indeed compared at the time to those of Senegal (Garnier, 2012). Results show a spatially coherent view of the heat wave at the national scale as well as a reduced uncertainty compared to initial meteorological reconstructions, thus demonstrating the added value of data assimilation. In order to assess the performance of assimilation methods in a more recent context, these methods are also used to reconstruct the well-known 3-14 August 2003 heat wave by using (1) all available stations, and (2) the same station density as in August 1893, the rest of the observations being saved for validation. This analysis allows comparing two heat waves having occurred 100 years apart in France with different associated uncertainties, in terms of dynamics and intensity. Bhend, J., Franke, J., Folini, D., Wild, M., and Brönnimann, S.: An ensemble-based approach to climate reconstructions, Clim. Past, 8, 963-976, doi: 10.5194/cp-8-963-2012, 2012 Caillouet, L., Vidal, J-P., Sauquet, E., and Graff, B.: Probabilistic precipitation and temperature downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France, Clim. Past, 12, 635-662, doi: 10.5194/cp-12-635-2016, 2016. Garnier, E.: Sécheresses et canicules avant le Global Warming - 1500-1950. In: Canicules et froids extrêmes. L'Événement climatique et ses représentations (II) Histoire, littérature, peinture (Berchtlod, J., Le Roy ladurie, E., Sermain, J.-P., and Vasak, A., Eds.), 297-325, Hermann, 2012.

Improved Understanding of the Modeled QBO Using MLS Observations and MERRA Reanalysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oman, Luke David; Douglass, Anne Ritger; Hurwitz, Maggie M.; Garfinkel, Chaim I.

2013-01-01

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the variability of the tropical stratosphere on interannual time scales. The QBO has been shown to extend its influence into the chemical composition of this region through dynamical mechanisms. We have started our analysis using the realistic QBO internally generated by the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric chemical mechanism forced with observed sea surface temperatures over the past 33 years. We will show targeted comparisons with observations from NASAs Aura satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis to provide insight into the simulation of the primary and secondary circulations associated with the QBO. Using frequency spectrum analysis and multiple linear regression we can illuminate the resulting circulations and deduce the strengths and weaknesses in their modeled representation. Inclusion of the QBO in our simulation improves the representation of the subtropical barriers and overall tropical variability. The QBO impact on tropical upwelling is important to quantify when calculating trends in sub-decadal scale datasets.

Evaluation of representativeness of near-surface winds in station measurements, global and regional reanalysis for Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaspar, Frank; Kaiser-Weiss, Andrea K.; Heene, Vera; Borsche, Michael; Keller, Jan

2015-04-01

Within the preparation activities for a European COPERNICUS Climate Change Service (C3S) several ongoing research projects analyse the potential of global and regional model-based climate reanalyses for applications. A user survey in the FP7-project CORE-CLIMAX revealed that surface wind (10 m) is among the most frequently used parameters of global reanalysis products. The FP7 project UERRA (Uncertainties in Ensembles of Regional Re-Analysis) has the focus on regional European reanalysis and the associated uncertainties, also from a user perspective. Especially in the field of renewable energy planning and production there is a need for climatological information across all spatial scales, i.e., from climatology at a certain site to the spatial scale of national or continental renewable energy production. Here, we focus on a comparison of wind measurements of the Germany's meteorological service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) with global reanalyses of ECWMF and a regional reanalysis for Europe based on DWD's NWP-model COSMO (performed by the Hans-Ertel-Center for Weather Research, University of Bonn). Reanalyses can provide valuable additional information on larger scale variability, e.g. multi-annual variation over Germany. However, changes in the observing system, model errors and biases have to be carefully considered. On the other hand, the ground-based observation networks partly suffer from change of the station distribution, changes in instrumentation, measurements procedures and quality control as well as local changes which might modify their spatial representativeness. All these effects might often been unknown or hard to characterize, although plenty of the meta-data information has been recorded for the German stations. One focus of the presentation will be the added-value of the regional reanalysis.

The role of SSTs in the development of explosive cyclogenesis: The storm of 21-22 January 2004 in the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katsafados, P.; Mavromatidis, E.; Papadopoulos, A.; Pytharoulis, I.

2009-09-01

During the last two decades much attention has been given to the extra-tropical cyclonic systems that develop at an unusually rapid rate. The first synoptic and climatological study of such explosively developing storm has been documented by Sanders and Gyakum (1980). They defined an extra-tropical cyclone as "bomb" when its central sea-level pressure deepens by at least 1hPa per hour for 24 hours at a latitude of 60 0N. Strong sea surface temperature (SST) gradients accompanied with high surface fluxes of heat (latent and sensible) appear to characterize the favorable environment for the marine bomb development. Various modeling studies seem to suggest different roles of the SST and heat flux in forcing the extra-tropical atmosphere. Although models are sensitive to the lower boundary conditions, it is not clear if the forcing from different types of SST can significantly impact a given simulation of a rapid developing cyclonic system. To this end, comparative numerical simulations of an explosive cyclogenesis event in marine environment were performed based on a non-hydrostatic limited area model. Reanalysis and satellite-measured SSTs were both used as model lower boundary conditions. The aim of this study is to investigate the sensitivity of storm characteristics to the different SST sources. The case of 21-22 January 2004 was chosen for analysis due to its intensity and impact in the coastal areas of Southern Greece. According to the MEDEX database (MEDiteranean EXperiment) this event was among the three deepest cyclones found in the entire Mediterranean during last decades. Model simulations on high spatiotemporal resolution resolved mesoscale features triggered by the different nature of SSTs. Although the atmospheric response was significant in terms of rain bands and surface fluxes, the phase and the structure of the system were not affected by the different boundary conditions forcing. In more details, the shifted rain bands, as they were simulated with reanalysis and satellite-measured SST forcing, are related with the different representation of the transition speed of the storm. These precipitation patterns are mainly attributed to the stronger surface fluxes of heat that impose a deeper destabilization of the boundary layer. Stronger surface fluxes, with differences exceeding 150 Wm-2, were predicted when the generally warmer reanalysis SSTs were used.

Evaluation of NLDAS 12-km and downscaled 1-km temperature products in New York State for potential use in health exposure response studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estes, M. G., Jr.; Insaf, T.; Crosson, W. L.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.

2017-12-01

Heat exposure metrics (maximum and minimum daily temperatures,) have a close relationship with human health. While meteorological station data provide a good source of point measurements, temporal and spatially consistent temperature data are needed for health studies. Reanalysis data such as the North American Land Data Assimilation System's (NLDAS) 12-km gridded product are an effort to resolve spatio-temporal environmental data issues; the resolution may be too coarse to accurately capture the effects of elevation, mixed land/water areas, and urbanization. As part of this NASA Applied Sciences Program funded project, the NLDAS 12-km air temperature product has been downscaled to 1-km using MODIS Land Surface Temperature patterns. Limited validation of the native 12-km NLDAS reanalysis data has been undertaken. Our objective is to evaluate the accuracy of both the 12-km and 1-km downscaled products using the US Historical Climatology Network station data geographically dispersed across New York State. Statistical methods including correlation, scatterplots, time series and summary statistics were used to determine the accuracy of the remotely-sensed maximum and minimum temperature products. The specific effects of elevation and slope on remotely-sensed temperature product accuracy were determined with 10-m digital elevation data that were used to calculate percent slope and link with the temperature products at multiple scales. Preliminary results indicate the downscaled temperature product improves accuracy over the native 12-km temperature product with average correlation improvements from 0.81 to 0.85 for minimum and 0.71 to 0.79 for maximum temperatures in 2009. However, the benefits vary temporally and geographically. Our results will inform health studies using remotely-sensed temperature products to determine health risk from excessive heat by providing a more robust assessment of the accuracy of the 12-km NLDAS product and additional accuracy gained from the 1-km downscaled product. Also, the results will be shared with the National Weather Service to determine potential benefits to heat warning systems and evaluated for inclusion in the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Environmental Public Health Tracking Network as a resource for the health community.

Towards the Consideration of Surface and Environment variables for a Microwave Precipitation Algorithm Over Land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, N. Y.; You, Y.; Ferraro, R. R.; Guch, I.

2014-12-01

Microwave satellite remote sensing of precipitation over land is a challenging problem due to the highly variable land surface emissivity, which, if not properly accounted for, can be much greater than the precipitation signal itself, especially in light rain/snow conditions. Additionally, surfaces such as arid land, deserts and snow cover have brightness temperatures characteristics similar to precipitation Ongoing work by NASA's GPM microwave radiometer team is constructing databases for the GPROF algorithm through a variety of means, however, there is much uncertainty as to what is the optimal information needed for the wide array of sensors in the GPM constellation, including examination of regional conditions. The at-launch database focuses on stratification by emissivity class, surface temperature and total precipitable water (TPW). We'll perform sensitivity studies to determine the potential role of environmental factors such as land surface temperature, surface elevation, and relative humidity and storm morphology such as storm vertical structure, height, and ice thickness to improve precipitation estimation over land, including rain and snow. In other words, what information outside of the satellite radiances can help describe the background and subsequent departures from it that are active precipitating regions? It is likely that this information will be a function of the various precipitation regimes. Statistical methods such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) will be utilized in this task. Databases from a variety of sources are being constructed. They include existing satellite microwave measurements of precipitating and non-precipitating conditions, ground radar precipitation rate estimates, surface emissivity climatology from satellites, surface temperature and TPW from NWP reanalysis. Results from the analysis of these databases with respect to the microwave precipitation sensitivity to the variety of environmental conditions in different climate regimes will be discussed.

Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol–climate model intercomparison studies

DOE PAGES

Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; ...

2014-08-26

Nudging as an assimilation technique has seen increased use in recent years in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity ofmore » simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on long-wave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations, and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. Results from both CAM5 and a second aerosol–climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 also indicate that compared to the wind-and-temperature nudging, constraining only winds leads to better agreement with the free-running model in terms of the estimated shortwave cloud forcing and the simulated convective activities. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy for the investigation of aerosol indirect effects since it provides well-constrained meteorology without strongly perturbing the model's mean climate.« less

Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol-climate model intercomparison studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; Ghan, S. J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, P.-L.; Rasch, P. J.; Neubauer, D.; Lohmann, U.

2014-08-01

Nudging as an assimilation technique has seen increased use in recent years in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity of simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on long-wave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations, and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. Results from both CAM5 and a second aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 also indicate that compared to the wind-and-temperature nudging, constraining only winds leads to better agreement with the free-running model in terms of the estimated shortwave cloud forcing and the simulated convective activities. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy for the investigation of aerosol indirect effects since it provides well-constrained meteorology without strongly perturbing the model's mean climate.

Land Surface Precipitation and Hydrology in MERRA-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reichle, R.; Koster, R.; Draper, C.; Liu, Q.; Girotto, M.; Mahanama, S.; De Lannoy, G.; Partyka, G.

2017-01-01

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), provides global, 1-hourly estimates of land surface conditions for 1980-present at 50-km resolution. Outside of the high latitudes, MERRA-2 uses observations-based precipitation data products to correct the precipitation falling on the land surface. This paper describes the precipitation correction method and evaluates the MERRA-2 land surface precipitation and hydrology. Compared to monthly GPCPv2.2 observations, the corrected MERRA-2 precipitation (M2CORR) is better than the precipitation generated by the atmospheric models within the cyclingMERRA-2 system and the earlier MERRA reanalysis. Compared to 3-hourlyTRMM observations, the M2CORR diurnal cycle has better amplitude but less realistic phasing than MERRA-2 model-generated precipitation. Because correcting the precipitation within the coupled atmosphere-land modeling system allows the MERRA-2 near-surface air temperature and humidity to respond to the improved precipitation forcing, MERRA-2 provides more self-consistent surface meteorological data than were available from the earlier, offline MERRA-Land reanalysis. Overall, MERRA-2 land hydrology estimates are better than those of MERRA-Land and MERRA. A comparison against GRACE satellite observations of terrestrial water storage demonstrates clear improvements in MERRA-2 over MERRA in South America and Africa but also reflects known errors in the observations used to correct the MERRA-2 precipitation. The MERRA-2 and MERRA-Land surface and root zone soil moisture skill vs. in situ measurements is slightly higher than that of ERA-Interim Land and higher than that of MERRA (significantly for surface soil moisture). Snow amounts from MERRA-2 have lower bias and correlate better against reference data than do those of MERRA-Land and MERRA, with MERRA-2 skill roughly matching that of ERA-Interim Land. Seasonal anomaly R values against naturalized stream flow measurements in the United States are, on balance, highest for MERRA-2 and ERA-Interim Land, somewhat lower for MERRA-Land, and lower still for MERRA.

Diagnostic Comparison of Meteorological Analyses during the 2002 Antarctic Winter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manney, Gloria L.; Allen, Douglas R.; Kruger, Kirstin; Naujokat, Barbara; Santee, Michelle L.; Sabutis, Joseph L.; Pawson, Steven; Swinbank, Richard; Randall, Cora E.; Simmons, Adrian J.;

The relationship between Arabian Sea upwelling and Indian monsoon revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, X.; Hünicke, B.; Tim, N.; Zorita, E.

2015-11-01

Studies based on upwelling indices (sediment records, sea-surface temperature and wind) suggest that upwelling along the western coast of Arabian Sea is strongly affected by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). In order to examine this relationship directly, we employ the vertical water mass transport produced by the eddy-resolving global ocean simulation STORM driven by meteorological reanalysis over the last 61 years. With its very high spatial resolution (10 km), STORM allows us to identify characteristics of the upwelling system. We analyze the co-variability between upwelling and meteorological and oceanic variables from 1950 to 2010. The analyses reveal high interannual correlations between coastal upwelling and along-shore wind-stress (r=0.73) as well as with sea-surface temperature (r0.83). However, the correlation between the upwelling and the ISM is small and other factors might contribute to the upwelling variability. In addition, no long-term trend is detected in our modeled upwelling time series.

Arctic Cut-Off High Drives the Poleward Shift of a New Greenland Melting Record

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tedesco, M.; Mote, T.; Fettweis, X.; Hanna, E.; Jeyaratnam, J.; Booth, J. F.; Datta, R.; Briggs, K.

2016-01-01

Large-scale atmospheric circulation controls the mass and energy balance of the Greenland ice sheet through its impact on radiative budget, runoff and accumulation. Here, using reanalysis data and the outputs of a regional climate model, we show that the persistence of an exceptional atmospheric ridge, centered over the Arctic Ocean, was responsible for a poleward shift of runoff, albedo and surface temperature records over the Greenland during the summer of 2015. New records of monthly mean zonal winds at 500 hPa and of the maximum latitude of ridge peaks of the 5,700+/-50 m isohypse over the Arctic were associated with the formation and persistency of a cutoff high. The unprecedented (1948-2015) and sustained atmospheric conditions promoted enhanced runoff, increased the surface temperatures and decreased the albedo in northern Greenland, while inhibiting melting in the south, where new melting records were set over the past decade. Subject terms: Earth sciences Atmospheric science Climate science

Super Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of extreme hourly precipitation and its relation to large-scale atmospheric conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenderink, Geert; Barbero, Renaud; Loriaux, Jessica; Fowler, Hayley

2017-04-01

Present-day precipitation-temperature scaling relations indicate that hourly precipitation extremes may have a response to warming exceeding the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation; for The Netherlands the dependency on surface dew point temperature follows two times the CC relation corresponding to 14 % per degree. Our hypothesis - as supported by a simple physical argument presented here - is that this 2CC behaviour arises from the physics of convective clouds. So, we think that this response is due to local feedbacks related to the convective activity, while other large scale atmospheric forcing conditions remain similar except for the higher temperature (approximately uniform warming with height) and absolute humidity (corresponding to the assumption of unchanged relative humidity). To test this hypothesis, we analysed the large-scale atmospheric conditions accompanying summertime afternoon precipitation events using surface observations combined with a regional re-analysis for the data in The Netherlands. Events are precipitation measurements clustered in time and space derived from approximately 30 automatic weather stations. The hourly peak intensities of these events again reveal a 2CC scaling with the surface dew point temperature. The temperature excess of moist updrafts initialized at the surface and the maximum cloud depth are clear functions of surface dew point temperature, confirming the key role of surface humidity on convective activity. Almost no differences in relative humidity and the dry temperature lapse rate were found across the dew point temperature range, supporting our theory that 2CC scaling is mainly due to the response of convection to increases in near surface humidity, while other atmospheric conditions remain similar. Additionally, hourly precipitation extremes are on average accompanied by substantial large-scale upward motions and therefore large-scale moisture convergence, which appears to accelerate with surface dew point. This increase in large-scale moisture convergence appears to be consequence of latent heat release due to the convective activity as estimated from the quasi-geostrophic omega equation. Consequently, most hourly extremes occur in precipitation events with considerable spatial extent. Importantly, this event size appears to increase rapidly at the highest dew point temperature range, suggesting potentially strong impacts of climatic warming.

Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trends since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Edmund K. M.; Yau, Albert M. W.

2016-09-01

In this study, a comprehensive comparison of Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trend since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets and rawinsonde observations has been conducted. In addition, trends in terms of variance and cyclone track statistics have been compared. Previous studies, based largely on the National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (NNR), have suggested that both the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks have significantly intensified between the 1950s and 1990s. Comparison with trends derived from rawinsonde observations suggest that the trends derived from NNR are significantly biased high, while those from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts 40-year Reanalysis and the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis are much less biased but still too high. Those from the two twentieth century reanalysis datasets are most consistent with observations but may exhibit slight biases of opposite signs. Between 1959 and 2010, Pacific storm track activity has likely increased by 10 % or more, while Atlantic storm track activity has likely increased by <10 %. Our analysis suggests that trends in Pacific and Atlantic basin wide storm track activity prior to the 1950s derived from the two twentieth century reanalysis datasets are unlikely to be reliable due to changes in density of surface observations. Nevertheless, these datasets may provide useful information on interannual variability, especially over the Atlantic.

What Controls the Temperature of the Arctic Stratosphere during the Spring?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.; Rosenfield, Joan E.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms that control the temperature of the polar lower stratosphere during spring is key to understanding ozone loss in the Arctic polar vortex. Spring ozone loss rates are directly tied to polar stratospheric temperatures by the formation of polar stratospheric clouds, and the conversion of chlorine species to reactive forms on these cloud particle surfaces. In this paper, we study those factors that control temperatures in the polar lower stratosphere. We use the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/NCAR reanalysis data covering the last two decades to investigate how planetary wave driving of the stratosphere is connected to polar temperatures. In particular, we show that planetary waves forced in the troposphere in mid- to late winter (January-February) are principally responsible for the mean polar temperature during the March period. These planetary waves are forced by both thermal and orographic processes in the troposphere, and propagate into the stratosphere in the mid and high latitudes. Strong mid-winter planetary wave forcing leads to a warmer Arctic lower stratosphere in early spring, while weak mid-winter forcing leads to cooler Arctic temperatures.

Why is there net surface heating over the Antarctic Circumpolar Current?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czaja, Arnaud; Marshall, John

2015-05-01

Using a combination of atmospheric reanalysis data, climate model outputs and a simple model, key mechanisms controlling net surface heating over the Southern Ocean are identified. All data sources used suggest that, in a streamline-averaged view, net surface heating over the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is a result of net accumulation of solar radiation rather than a result of heat gain through turbulent fluxes (the latter systematically cool the upper ocean). It is proposed that the fraction of this net radiative heat gain realized as net ACC heating is set by two factors. First, the sea surface temperature at the southern edge of the ACC. Second, the relative strength of the negative heatflux feedbacks associated with evaporation at the sea surface and advection of heat by the residual flow in the oceanic mixed layer. A large advective feedback and a weak evaporative feedback maximize net ACC heating. It is shown that the present Southern Ocean and its circumpolar current are in this heating regime.

The "Dirty Weather" diaries of Reverend Richard Davis: insights about early Colonial-era meteorology and climate variability for Northern New Zealand, 1839-1851

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorrey, A. M.; Chappell, P. R.

2015-08-01

Reverend Richard Davis (1790-1863) was a Colonial-era missionary stationed in the Far North of New Zealand who was a key figure in the early efforts of the Church Mission Society. He kept meticulous meteorological records for the early settlements of Waimate North and Kaikohe, and his observations are preserved in a two-volume set in the rare manuscripts archive at the Auckland City Library. The Davis diary volumes are significant because they constitute some of the earliest land-based meteorological measurements that were continually chronicled for New Zealand. The diary measurements cover nine years within the 1839-1851 timespan that are broken into two parts: 1839-1844 and 1848-1851. Davis' meteorological recordings include daily 9 AM and noon temperatures and mid-day pressure measurements. Qualitative comments in the diary note prevailing wind flow, wind strength, cloud cover, climate variability impacts, bio-indicators suggestive of drought, and notes on extreme weather events. "Dirty weather" comments scattered throughout the diary describe disturbed conditions with strong winds and driving rainfall. The Davis diary entries coincide with the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and they indicate southerly and westerly circulation influences and cooler winter temperatures were more frequent than today. A comparison of climate field reconstructions derived from the Davis diary data and tree ring-based winter temperature reconstructions are supported by tropical coral palaeotemperature evidence. Davis' pressure measurements were corroborated using ship log data from vessels associated with iconic Antarctic exploration voyages that were anchored in the Bay of Islands, and suggest the pressure series he recorded are robust and can be used as `station data'. The Reverend Davis meteorological data are expected to make a significant contribution to the Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions across the Earth (ACRE) project, which feeds the major data requirements for the longest historical reanalysis - the 20th Century Reanalysis Project (20CR). Thus these new data will help extend surface pressure-based re-analysis reconstructions of past weather covering New Zealand within the data-sparse Southern Hemisphere.

The "dirty weather" diaries of Reverend Richard Davis: insights about early colonial-era meteorology and climate variability for northern New Zealand, 1839-1851

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorrey, Andrew M.; Chappell, Petra R.

2016-03-01

Reverend Richard Davis (1790-1863) was a colonial-era missionary stationed in the Far North of New Zealand who was a key figure in the early efforts of the Church Mission Society. He kept meticulous meteorological records for the early settlements of Waimate North and Kaikohe, and his observations are preserved in a two-volume set in the Sir George Grey Special Collections in the Auckland Central Library. The Davis diary volumes are significant because they constitute some of the earliest land-based meteorological measurements that were continually chronicled for New Zealand. The diary measurements cover nine years within the 1839-1851 time span that are broken into two parts: 1839-1844 and 1848-1851. Davis' meteorological recordings include daily 9 a.m. and noon temperatures and midday pressure measurements. Qualitative comments in the diary note prevailing wind flow, wind strength, cloud cover, climate variability impacts, bio-indicators suggestive of drought, and notes on extreme weather events. "Dirty weather" comments scattered throughout the diary describe disturbed conditions with strong winds and driving rainfall. The Davis diary entries coincide with the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and they indicate southerly and westerly circulation influences and cooler winter temperatures were more frequent than today. A comparison of climate field reconstructions derived from the Davis diary data and tree-ring-based winter temperature reconstructions are supported by tropical coral palaeotemperature evidence. Davis' pressure measurements were corroborated using ship log data from vessels associated with iconic Antarctic exploration voyages that were anchored in the Bay of Islands, and suggest the pressure series he recorded are robust and can be used as "station data". The Reverend Davis meteorological data are expected to make a significant contribution to the Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions across the Earth (ACRE) project, which feeds the major data requirements for the longest historical reanalysis - the 20th Century Reanalysis Project (20CR). Thus these new data will help extend surface pressure-based reanalysis reconstructions of past weather covering New Zealand within the data-sparse Southern Hemisphere.

The Mediterranean Sea 1985-2007 re-analysis: validation results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adani, Mario; Dobricic, Srdjan; Pinardi, Nadia

2010-05-01

Re-analyses are different from analyses because they are consistent for the whole period since the oceanic state estimates are produced without changes in the modelling assumptions and they are usually done with systems which are more advance then the available systems at the time of the observations collection. A fundamental part of a re-analysis system is the data assimilation scheme which minimizes the cost function penalizing the time-space misfits between the data and the numerical solutions, with the constraint of the model equations and their parameters. In this work we will compare ocean circulation estimates provided by pure simulation, a system in which the assimilation scheme is based on a sequential algorithm: Optimal Interpolation (OI) and a three-dimensional variational scheme (3dvar). The OGCM used in this work is based on OPA 8.1 code (Madec et al. 1998), which has been implemented in the Mediterranean Sea by Tonani et al.(2008). The model has 1/16th horizontal resolution and 71 unevenly spaced vertical levels. The present model formulation uses a realistic water flux with river runoffs which improves the realism of the simulation. One re-analysis is produced with the Reduced Order Optimal Interpolation (ROOI) (De Mey and Benkiran, 2002) and the other with OceanVar (Dobricic and Pinardi, 2008). The observational data sets assimilated for both reanalysis are: • the historical data archive of MedATLAS (Maillard et al., 2003) which contains vertical in situ profiles of temperature and salinity from bottles, XBT, MBT and CTD sensors • temperature and salinity profiles collected in the framework of MFSPP and MFSTEP projects • CLS along track satellite sea level anomaly data from ERS1, ERS2, Envisat, Topex/Poseidon, Jason1 satellites (Pujol and Larnicol,2005) Reanalyzed daily mean fields of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from Medspiration (Marullo et al., 2007) and the Delayed-Time operational product of CNR-ISAC have been used to relax the model SST. The Mean Dynamic Topography of (Dobricic, 2005) has been used for both experiments. The model is forced with a combined dataset of ECMWF analysis when available and ERA-15. The precipitations are monthly mean climatology of the NCEP re-analysis (Kistler et.al 2001), the river runoff data are monthly mean climatology from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) and from Raicic (1996) for the minor Adriatic Sea rivers. The assimilation schemes help in reducing the spin up time of the model by acting as a forcing inside the water column. Both re-analyses show significantly better results then the simulation reducing both bias and root mean square error even though the structure of the error remains almost the same of the simulation: the largest error for tracers is confined in the thermocline especially in summer, highlighting a problem in the mixing parameterization; the majors error for SLA is confined in the most dynamically active areas. Satellite altimetry observations result in a fundamental dataset to constrain model solution and since its homogeneity in the sampling they permits a consistent assessment of the model behaviour along the years which it is not possible from in-situ observations whose sampling is extremely inhomogeneous both in time and space. This study describes the development of modelling and data assimilation tools for the production of re-analysis for the entire Mediterranean Sea. In order to carry out a re-analysis two major steps were undertaken in this work. In the first, the general circulation model was upgraded to have the correct air-sea water fluxes. In the second, two assimilation schemes, one new and the other consolidated, were compared to show their impact on the quality of the re-analysis. The general circulation model used in this study is shown to be capable of reproducing quite accurately the ocean dynamics of the Mediterranean Sea. The results have shown that the model solution is in agreement with data and observations, even though some parameterizations of the model should be improved (i.e. heat flux and mixing processes). The new implementation of a realistic water flux, proposed in this study, has improved the model solution so that re-analysis is possible. The study of the re-analysis produced shows that both products are sufficiently accurate for appropriate climate studies. Both assimilation schemes show good capabilities in correcting the solutions provided by the dynamical model. Moreover it has been shown the ability of both systems in retaining this information and projecting it in the future. Eventually, even for very complex non linear systems, with millions of prognostic variables, the equality between the Sequential Kalman Filter Approach and the Variational one as been demonstrated.

Identification of tipping elements of the Indian Summer Monsoon using climate network approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stolbova, Veronika; Surovyatkina, Elena; Kurths, Jurgen

2015-04-01

Spatial and temporal variability of the rainfall is a vital question for more than one billion of people inhabiting the Indian subcontinent. Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall is crucial for India's economy, social welfare, and environment and large efforts are being put into predicting the Indian Summer Monsoon. For predictability of the ISM, it is crucial to identify tipping elements - regions over the Indian subcontinent which play a key role in the spatial organization of the Indian monsoon system. Here, we use climate network approach for identification of such tipping elements of the ISM. First, we build climate networks of the extreme rainfall, surface air temperature and pressure over the Indian subcontinent for pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. We construct network of extreme rainfall event using observational satellite data from 1998 to 2012 from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42V7) and reanalysis gridded daily rainfall data for a time period of 57 years (1951-2007) (Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources, APHRODITE). For the network of surface air temperature and pressure fields, we use re-analysis data provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR). Second, we filter out data by coarse-graining the network through network measures, and identify tipping regions of the ISM. Finally, we compare obtained results of the network analysis with surface wind fields and show that occurrence of the tipping elements is mostly caused by monsoonal wind circulation, migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and Westerlies. We conclude that climate network approach enables to select the most informative regions for the ISM, providing realistic description of the ISM dynamics with fewer data, and also help to identify tipping regions of the ISM. Obtained tipping elements deserve a special attention for the meteorologists and can be used as markers of the ISM variability.

Solar Signals in CMIP-5 Simulations: The Stratospheric Pathway

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitchell, D.M.; Misios, S.; Gray, L. J.; Tourpali, K.; Matthes, K.; Hood, L.; Schmidt, H.; Chiodo, G.; Thieblemont, R.; Rozanov, E.;

Potential Seasonal Predictability of Water Cycle in Observations and Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Houser, P.

2012-12-01

Identification of predictability of water cycle variability is crucial for climate prediction, water resources availability, ecosystem management and hazard mitigation. An analysis that can assess the potential skill in seasonal prediction was proposed by the authors, named as analysis of covariance (ANOCOVA). This method tests whether interannual variability of seasonal means exceeds that due to weather noise under the null hypothesis that seasonal means are identical every year. It has the advantage of taking into account autocorrelation structure in the daily time series but also accounting for the uncertainty of the estimated parameters in the significance test. During the past several years, multiple reanalysis datasets have become available for studying climate variability and understanding climate system. We are motivated to compare the potential predictability of water cycle variation from different reanalysis datasets against observations using the newly proposed ANOCOVA method. The selected eight reanalyses include the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) 40-year Reanalysis Project (NNRP), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) Reanalysis Project (NDRP), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year Reanalysis, The Japan Meteorological Agency 25-year Reanalysis Project (JRA25), the ECMWF) Interim Reanalysis (ERAINT), the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (NOAA/CIRES) 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2 (20CR). For key water cycle components, precipitation and evaporation, all reanalyses consistently show high fraction of predictable variance in the tropics, low predictability over the extratropics, more potential predictability over the ocean than land, and a stronger seasonal variation in potential predictability over land than ocean. The substantial differences are observed especially over the extropical areas where boundary-forced signal is not as significant as in tropics. We further evaluate the accuracy of reanalysis in estimating seasonal predictability over several selected regions, where rain gauge measurement or land surface data assimilation product is available and accurate, to gain insight on the strength and weakness of reanalysis products.

Winter Eurasian cooling linked with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Dehai; Chen, Yanan; Dai, Aiguo; Mu, Mu; Zhang, Renhe; Ian, Simmonds

2017-12-01

In this paper, we analyze observational and reanalysis data to demonstrate that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) significantly modulates winter Eurasian surface air temperature through its impact on the shape, frequency and persistence of Ural blocking (UB) events that last for 10-20 d. This impact results from changes in mid-high latitude westerly winds over Eurasia associated with the warming in the Barents-Kara Seas (BKS) through the AMO-driven high sea surface temperature and sea-ice decline and resultant weakening in meridional temperature gradients. The BKS warming has a strongest positive correlation with the AMO at a time lag of about 14 years. During the recent positive AMO phase, more persistent northwest-southeast (NW-SE) oriented UB events are favored by weakened westerly winds in Eurasian mid-high latitudes. Through cold atmospheric advection and radiative cooling, such UB events produce a strong, persistent and widespread cooling over Eurasia and enhance BKS warming during 1999-2015. However, the positive AMO phase cannot directly produce the Eurasian cooling if the UB is absent. Thus, we conclude that the recent AMO phase change is a major cause of the recent winter cooling over Eurasia through its impact on BKS temperature and sea ice, which in turn affect the meridional temperature gradient, the westerly winds and the UB events.

Reconstructions of the 1900-2015 Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance using the regional climate MAR model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fettweis, Xavier; Box, Jason E.; Agosta, Cécile; Amory, Charles; Kittel, Christoph; Lang, Charlotte; van As, Dirk; Machguth, Horst; Gallée, Hubert

2017-04-01

With the aim of studying the recent Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) decrease relative to the last century, we have forced the regional climate MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional; version 3.5.2) model with the ERA-Interim (ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis; 1979-2015), ERA-40 (1958-2001), NCEP-NCARv1 (National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis version 1; 1948-2015), NCEP-NCARv2 (1979-2015), JRA-55 (Japanese 55-year Reanalysis; 1958-2014), 20CRv2(c) (Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 2; 1900-2014) and ERA-20C (1900-2010) reanalyses. While all these forcing products are reanalyses that are assumed to represent the same climate, they produce significant differences in the MAR-simulated SMB over their common period. A temperature adjustment of +1 °C (respectively -1 °C) was, for example, needed at the MAR boundaries with ERA-20C (20CRv2) reanalysis, given that ERA-20C (20CRv2) is ˜ 1 °C colder (warmer) than ERA-Interim over Greenland during the period 1980-2010. Comparisons with daily PROMICE (Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet) near-surface observations support these adjustments. Comparisons with SMB measurements, ice cores and satellite-derived melt extent reveal the most accurate forcing datasets for the simulation of the GrIS SMB to be ERA-Interim and NCEP-NCARv1. However, some biases remain in MAR, suggesting that some improvements are still needed in its cloudiness and radiative schemes as well as in the representation of the bare ice albedo. Results from all MAR simulations indicate that (i) the period 1961-1990, commonly chosen as a stable reference period for Greenland SMB and ice dynamics, is actually a period of anomalously positive SMB (˜ +40 Gt yr-1) compared to 1900-2010; (ii) SMB has decreased significantly after this reference period due to increasing and unprecedented melt reaching the highest rates in the 120-year common period; (iii) before 1960, both ERA-20C and 20CRv2-forced MAR simulations suggest a significant precipitation increase over 1900-1950, but this increase could be the result of an artefact in the reanalyses that are not well-enough constrained by observations during this period and (iv) since the 1980s, snowfall is quite stable after having reached a maximum in the 1970s. These MAR-based SMB and accumulation reconstructions are, however, quite similar to those from Box (2013) after 1930 and confirm that SMB was quite stable from the 1940s to the 1990s. Finally, only the ERA-20C-forced simulation suggests that SMB during the 1920-1930 warm period over Greenland was comparable to the SMB of the 2000s, due to both higher melt and lower precipitation than normal.

High resolution (1 km) positive degree-day modelling of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance, 1870–2012 using reanalysis data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilton, David J.; Jowett, Amy; Hanna, Edward

Here, we show results from a positive degree-day (PDD) model of Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB), 1870–2012, forced with reanalysis data. The model includes an improved daily temperature parameterization as compared with a previous version and is run at 1 km rather than 5 km resolution. The improvements lead overall to higher SMB with the same forcing data. We also compare our model with results from two regional climate models (RCMs). While there is good qualitative agreement between our PDD model and the RCMs, it usually results in lower precipitation and lower runoff but approximately equivalent SMB:more » mean 1979–2012 SMB (± standard deviation), in Gt a –1, is 382 ± 78 in the PDD model, compared with 379 ± 101 and 425 ± 90 for the RCMs. Comparison with in situ SMB observations suggests that the RCMs may be more accurate than PDD at local level, in some areas, although the latter generally compares well. Dividing the GrIS into seven drainage basins we show that SMB has decreased sharply in all regions since 2000. Finally we show correlation between runoff close to two calving glaciers and either calving front retreat or calving flux, this being most noticeable from the mid-1990s.« less

High resolution (1 km) positive degree-day modelling of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance, 1870–2012 using reanalysis data

DOE PAGES

Wilton, David J.; Jowett, Amy; Hanna, Edward; ...

2016-12-15

Here, we show results from a positive degree-day (PDD) model of Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB), 1870–2012, forced with reanalysis data. The model includes an improved daily temperature parameterization as compared with a previous version and is run at 1 km rather than 5 km resolution. The improvements lead overall to higher SMB with the same forcing data. We also compare our model with results from two regional climate models (RCMs). While there is good qualitative agreement between our PDD model and the RCMs, it usually results in lower precipitation and lower runoff but approximately equivalent SMB:more » mean 1979–2012 SMB (± standard deviation), in Gt a –1, is 382 ± 78 in the PDD model, compared with 379 ± 101 and 425 ± 90 for the RCMs. Comparison with in situ SMB observations suggests that the RCMs may be more accurate than PDD at local level, in some areas, although the latter generally compares well. Dividing the GrIS into seven drainage basins we show that SMB has decreased sharply in all regions since 2000. Finally we show correlation between runoff close to two calving glaciers and either calving front retreat or calving flux, this being most noticeable from the mid-1990s.« less

Effects of wintertime atmospheric river landfalls on surface air temperatures in the Western US: Analyses and model evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Guan, B.; Waliser, D. E.; Ferraro, R.

2016-12-01

Landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) affect the wintertime surface air temperatures as shown in earlier studies. The AR-related surface air temperatures can exert significant influence on the hydrology in the US Pacific coast region especially through rainfall-snowfall partitioning and the snowpack in high elevation watersheds as they are directly related with the freezing-level altitudes. These effects of temperature perturbations can in turn affect hydrologic events of various time scales such as flash flooding by the combined effects of rainfall and snowmelt, and the warm season runoff from melting snowpack, especially in conjunction with the AR effects on winter precipitation and rain-on-snow events in WUS. Thus, understanding the effects of AR landfalls on the surface temperatures and examining the capability of climate models in simulating these effects are an important practical concern for WUS. This study aims to understand the effects of AR landfalls on the characteristics of surface air temperatures in WUS, especially seasonal means and PDFs and to evaluate the fidelity of model data produced in the NASA downscaling experiment for the 10 winters from Nov. 1999 to Mar. 2010 using an AR-landfall chronology based on the vertically-integrated water vapor flux calculated from the MERRA2 reanalysis. Model skill is measured using metrics including regional means, a skill score based on correlations and mean-square errors, the similarity between two PDF shapes, and Taylor diagrams. Results show that the AR landfalls are related with higher surface air temperatures in WUS, especially in inland regions. The AR landfalls also reduce the range of surface air temperature PDF, largely by reducing the events in the lower temperature range. The shift in the surface air temperature PDF is consistent with the positive anomalies in the winter-mean temperature. Model data from the NASA downscaling experiment reproduce the AR effects on the temperature PDF, at least qualitatively; however, the skill in representing the spatial variations in the temperature anomalies is low. The skill of these model data also varies according to regions and the configuration of simulations. It was also found that the variations in model skill in simulating the spatial variability according to the model resolution is not systematic.

ENSO shifts and their link to Southern Africa surface air temperature in summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manatsa, D.; Mukwada, G.; Makaba, L.

2018-05-01

ENSO has been known to influence the trends of summer warming over Southern Africa. In this work, we used observational and reanalysis data to analyze the relationship between ENSO and maximum surface air temperature (SATmax) trends during the three epochs created by the ENSO phase shifts around 1977 and 1997 for the period 1960 to 2014. We observed that while ENSO and cloud cover remains the dominant factor controlling SATmax variability, the first two epochs had the predominant La Niña (El Niño)-like events connected to robust positive (negative) trends in cloud fraction. However, this established relationship reversed in the post-1997 La Niña-like dominated epoch which coincided with a falling cloud cover trend. It is established that this deviation from the previously established link within the previous epochs could be due to the post-1998 era in which SATmin was suppressed while SATmax was enhanced. The resulting increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR) could have discouraged the formation of low-level clouds which have relatively more extensive areal coverage and hence allowing more solar energy to reach the surface to boost daytime SATmax. It is noted that these relationships are more pronounced from December to March.

Changes in the extremes of the climate simulated by CCC GCM2 under CO{sub 2} doubling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zwiers, F.W.; Kharin, V.V.

Changes due to CO{sub 2} doubling in the extremes of the surface climate as simulated by the second-generation circulation model of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis are studied in two 20-yr equilibrium simulations. Extreme values of screen temperature, precipitation, and near-surface wind in the control climate are compared to those estimated from 17 yr of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and from some Canadian station data. The extremes of screen temperature are reasonably well reproduced in the control climate. Their changes under CO{sub 2} doubling can be connected with other physical changes such as surface albedo changes duemore » to the reduction of snow and sea ice cover as well as a decrease of soil moisture in the warmer world. The signal in the extremes of daily precipitation and near-surface wind speed due to CO{sub 2} doubling is less obvious. The precipitation extremes increase almost everywhere over the globe. The strongest change, over northwest India, is related to the intensification of the summer monsoon in this region in the warmer world. The modest reduction of wind extremes in the Tropics and middle latitudes is consistent with the reduction of the meridional temperature gradient in the 2{times}CO{sub 2} climate. The larger wind extremes occur in the areas where sea ice has retreated.« less

Multi-annual modes in the 20th century temperature variability in reanalyses and CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Järvinen, Heikki; Seitola, Teija; Silén, Johan; Räisänen, Jouni

2016-11-01

A performance expectation is that Earth system models simulate well the climate mean state and the climate variability. To test this expectation, we decompose two 20th century reanalysis data sets and 12 CMIP5 model simulations for the years 1901-2005 of the monthly mean near-surface air temperature using randomised multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (RMSSA). Due to the relatively short time span, we concentrate on the representation of multi-annual variability which the RMSSA method effectively captures as separate and mutually orthogonal spatio-temporal components. This decomposition is a unique way to separate statistically significant quasi-periodic oscillations from one another in high-dimensional data sets.The main results are as follows. First, the total spectra for the two reanalysis data sets are remarkably similar in all timescales, except that the spectral power in ERA-20C is systematically slightly higher than in 20CR. Apart from the slow components related to multi-decadal periodicities, ENSO oscillations with approximately 3.5- and 5-year periods are the most prominent forms of variability in both reanalyses. In 20CR, these are relatively slightly more pronounced than in ERA-20C. Since about the 1970s, the amplitudes of the 3.5- and 5-year oscillations have increased, presumably due to some combination of forced climate change, intrinsic low-frequency climate variability, or change in global observing network. Second, none of the 12 coupled climate models closely reproduce all aspects of the reanalysis spectra, although some models represent many aspects well. For instance, the GFDL-ESM2M model has two nicely separated ENSO periods although they are relatively too prominent as compared with the reanalyses. There is an extensive Supplement and YouTube videos to illustrate the multi-annual variability of the data sets.

Interdecadal changes in the Asian winter monsoon variability and its relationship with ENSO and AO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yun, Kyung-Sook; Seo, Ye-Won; Ha, Kyung-Ja; Lee, June-Yi; Kajikawa, Yoshiyuki

2014-08-01

Interdecadal changes in the Asian winter monsoon (AWM) variability are investigated using three surface air temperature datasets for the 55-year period of 1958-2012 from (1) the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis 1 (NCEP), (2) combined datasets from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis and interim data (ERA), and (3) Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA). Particular attention has been paid to the first four empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the AWM temperature variability that together account for 64% of the total variance and have been previously identified as predictable modes. The four modes are characterized as follows: the first mode by a southern warming over the Indo-western Pacific Ocean associated with a gradually increasing basin-wide warming trend; the second mode by northern warming with the interdecadal change after the late 1980s; the third and fourth modes by north-south triple pattern, which reveal a phase shift after the late 1970s. The three reanalyses agree well with each other when producing the first three modes, but show large discrepancy in capturing both spatial and temporal characteristics of the fourth mode. It is therefore considered that the first three leading modes are more reliable than the rest higher modes. Considerable interdecadal changes are found mainly in the first two modes. While the first mode shows gradually decreasing variance, the second mode exhibits larger interannual variance during the recent decade. In addition, after the late 1970s, the first mode has a weakening relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) whereas the second mode has strengthening association with the Artic Oscillation (AO). This indicates an increasing role of AO but decreasing role of ENSO on the AWM variability. A better understanding of the interdecadal change in the dominant modes would contribute toward advancing in seasonal prediction and the predictability of the AWM variability.

The CAMS interim Reanalysis of Carbon Monoxide, Ozone and Aerosol for 2003-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flemming, Johannes; Benedetti, Angela; Inness, Antje; Engelen, Richard J.; Jones, Luke; Huijnen, Vincent; Remy, Samuel; Parrington, Mark; Suttie, Martin; Bozzo, Alessio; Peuch, Vincent-Henri; Akritidis, Dimitris; Katragkou, Eleni

2017-02-01

A new global reanalysis data set of atmospheric composition (AC) for the period 2003-2015 has been produced by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). Satellite observations of total column (TC) carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol optical depth (AOD), as well as several TC and profile observations of ozone, have been assimilated with the Integrated Forecasting System for Composition (C-IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting. Compared to the previous Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) reanalysis (MACCRA), the new CAMS interim reanalysis (CAMSiRA) is of a coarser horizontal resolution of about 110 km, compared to 80 km, but covers a longer period with the intent to be continued to present day. This paper compares CAMSiRA with MACCRA and a control run experiment (CR) without assimilation of AC retrievals. CAMSiRA has smaller biases than the CR with respect to independent observations of CO, AOD and stratospheric ozone. However, ozone at the surface could not be improved by the assimilation because of the strong impact of surface processes such as dry deposition and titration with nitrogen monoxide (NO), which were both unchanged by the assimilation. The assimilation of AOD led to a global reduction of sea salt and desert dust as well as an exaggerated increase in sulfate. Compared to MACCRA, CAMSiRA had smaller biases for AOD, surface CO and TC ozone as well as for upper stratospheric and tropospheric ozone. Finally, the temporal consistency of CAMSiRA was better than the one of MACCRA. This was achieved by using a revised emission data set as well as by applying careful selection and bias correction to the assimilated retrievals. CAMSiRA is therefore better suited than MACCRA for the study of interannual variability, as demonstrated for trends in surface CO.

Simulating the effects of fire disturbance and vegetation recovery on boreal ecosystem carbon fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Y.; Kimball, J. S.; Jones, L. A.; Zhao, M.

2011-12-01

Fire related disturbance and subsequent vegetation recovery has a major influence on carbon storage and land-atmosphere CO2 fluxes in boreal ecosystems. We applied a synthetic approach combining tower eddy covariance flux measurements, satellite remote sensing and model reanalysis surface meteorology within a terrestrial carbon model framework to estimate fire disturbance and recovery effects on boreal ecosystem carbon fluxes including gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration and net CO2 exchange (NEE). A disturbance index based on MODIS land surface temperature and NDVI was found to coincide with vegetation recovery status inferred from tower chronosequence sites. An empirical algorithm was developed to track ecosystem recovery status based on the disturbance index and used to nudge modeled net primary production (NPP) and surface soil organic carbon stocks from baseline steady-state conditions. The simulations were conducted using a satellite based terrestrial carbon flux model driven by MODIS NDVI and MERRA reanalysis daily surface meteorology inputs. The MODIS (MCD45) burned area product was then applied for mapping recent (post 2000) regional disturbance history, and used with the disturbance index to define vegetation disturbance and recovery status. The model was then applied to estimate regional patterns and temporal changes in terrestrial carbon fluxes across the entire northern boreal forest and tundra domain. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the relative importance of fire disturbance and recovery on regional carbon fluxes relative to assumed steady-state conditions. The explicit representation of disturbance and recovery effects produces more accurate NEE predictions than the baseline steady-state simulations and reduces uncertainty regarding the purported missing carbon sink in the high latitudes.

Comparison between assimilated and non-assimilated experiments of the MACCii global reanalysis near surface ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsikerdekis, Athanasios; Katragou, Eleni; Zanis, Prodromos; Melas, Dimitrios; Eskes, Henk; Flemming, Johannes; Huijnen, Vincent; Inness, Antje; Kapsomenakis, Ioannis; Schultz, Martin; Stein, Olaf; Zerefos, Christos

2014-05-01

In this work we evaluate near surface ozone concentrations of the MACCii global reanalysis using measurements from the EMEP and AIRBASE database. The eight-year long reanalysis of atmospheric composition data covering the period 2003-2010 was constructed as part of the FP7-funded Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate project by assimilating satellite data into a global model and data assimilation system (Inness et al., 2013). The study mainly focuses in the differences between the assimilated and the non-assimilated experiments and aims to identify and quantify any improvements achieved by adding data assimilation to the system. Results are analyzed in eight European sub-regions and region-specific Taylor plots illustrate the evaluation and the overall predictive skill of each experiment. The diurnal and annual cycles of near surface ozone are evaluated for both experiments. Furthermore ozone exposure indices for crop growth (AOT40), human health (SOMO35) and the number of days that 8-hour ozone averages exceeded 60ppb and 90ppb have been calculated for each station based on both observed and simulated data. Results indicate mostly improvement of the assimilated experiment with respect to the high near surface ozone concentrations, the diurnal cycle and range and the bias in comparison to the non-assimilated experiment. The limitations of the comparison between assimilated and non-assimilated experiments for near surface ozone are also discussed.

Relating isotopic composition of precipitation to atmospheric patterns and local moisture recycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Logan, K. E.; Brunsell, N. A.; Nippert, J. B.

2016-12-01

Local land management practices such as irrigation significantly alter surface evapotranspiration (ET), regional boundary layer development, and potentially modify precipitation likelihood and amount. How strong this local forcing is in comparison to synoptic-scale dynamics, and how much ET is recycled locally as precipitation are areas of great uncertainty and are especially important when trying to forecast the impact of local land management strategies on drought mitigation. Stable isotope analysis has long been a useful tool for tracing movement throughout the water cycle. In this study, reanalysis data and stable isotope samples of precipitation events are used to estimate the contribution of local moisture recycling to precipitation at the Konza Prairie LTER - located in the Great Plains, downwind of intensive agricultural areas. From 2001 to 2014 samples of all precipitation events over 5mm were collected and 18O and D isotopes measured. Comparison of observed precipitation totals and MERRA and ERA-interim reanalysis totals is used to diagnose periods of strong local moisture contribution (especially from irrigation) to precipitation. Large discrepancies in precipitation between observation and reanalysis, particularly MERRA, tend to follow dry periods during the growing season, presumably because while ERA-Interim adjusts soil moisture using observed surface temperature and humidity, MERRA includes no such local soil moisture adjustment and therefore lacks potential precipitation feedbacks induced by irrigation. The δ18O and δD signature of local irrigation recycling is evaluated using these incongruous observations. Self-organizing maps (SOM) are then used to identify a comprehensive range of synoptic conditions that result in precipitation at Konza LTER. Comparison of isotopic signature and SOM classification of rainfall events allows for identification of the primary moisture source and estimation of the contribution of locally recycled moisture. The climatology of precipitation source and changes in the influence of local moisture over the course of 14 years of observation are explored.

An assessment of TropFlux and NCEP air-sea fluxes on ROMS simulations over the Bay of Bengal region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dey, Dipanjan; Sil, Sourav; Jana, Sudip; Pramanik, Saikat; Pandey, P. C.

2017-12-01

This study presents an assessment of the TropFlux and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis air-sea fluxes in simulating the surface and subsurface oceanic parameters over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) region during 2002-2014 using the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS). The assessment has been made by comparing the simulated fields with in-situ and satellite observations. The simulated surface and subsurface temperatures in the TropFlux forced experiment (TropFlux-E) show better agreement with the Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis (RAMA) and Argo observations than the NCEP forced experiment (NCEP-E). The BoB domain averaged sea surface temperature (SST) simulated in the NCEP-E is consistently cooler than the satellite SST, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.79 °C. Moreover, NCEP-E shows a limitation in simulating the observed seasonal cycle of the SST due to substantial underestimation of the pre-monsoon SST peak. These limitations are mostly due to the lower values of the NCEP net heat flux. The seasonal and interannual variations of SST in the TropFlux-E are better comparable to the observations with correlations and skills more than 0.80 and 0.90 respectively. However, SST is overestimated during summer monsoon periods mainly due to higher net heat flux. The superiority of TropFlux forcing over the NCEP reanalysis can also be seen when simulating the interannual variabilities of the magnitude and vertical extent of Wyrtki jets at two equatorial RAMA buoy locations. The jet is weaker in the NCEP-E relative to the TropFlux-E and observations. The simulated sea surface height anomalies (SSHA) from both the experiments are able to capture the regions of positive and negative SSHA with respect to satellite-derived altimeter data with better performance in the TropFlux-E. The speed of the westward propagating Rossby wave along 18°N in the TropFlux-E is found to be about 4.7 cm/s, which is close to the theoretical phase speed of Rossby waves.

Structure of the tropical lower stratosphere as revealed by three reanalysis data sets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pawson, S.; Fiorino, M.

1996-05-01

While the skill of climate simulation models has advanced over the last decade, mainly through improvements in modeling, further progress will depend on the availability and the quality of comprehensive validation data sets covering long time periods. A new source of such validation data is atmospheric {open_quotes}reanalysis{close_quotes} where a fixed, state-of-the-art global atmospheric model/data assimilation system is run through archived and recovered observations to produce a consistent set of atmospheric analyses. Although reanalysis will be free of non-physical variability caused by changes in the models and/or the assimilation procedure, it is necessary to assess its quality. A region for stringentmore » testing of the quality of reanalysis is the tropical lower stratosphere. This portion of the atmosphere is sparse in observations but displays the prominent quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and an annual cycle, neither of which is fully understood, but which are likely coupled dynamically. We first consider the performance of three reanalyses, from NCEP/NCAR, NASA and ECMWF, against rawinsonde data in depicting the QBO and then examine the structure of the tropical lower stratosphere in NCEP and ECMWF data sets in detail. While the annual cycle and the QBO in wind and temperature are quite successfully represented, the mean meridional circulations in NCEP and ECMWF data sets contain unusual features which may be due to the assimilation process rather than being physically based. Further, the models capture the long-term temperature fluctuations associated with volcanic eruptions, even though the physical mechanisms are not included, thus implying that the model does not mask prominent stratospheric signals in the observational data. We conclude that reanalysis offers a unique opportunity to better understand the dynamics of QBO and can be applied to climate model validation.« less

Investigating Satellite Microwave observations of Precipitation in Different Climate Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, N.; Ferraro, R. R.

2013-12-01

Microwave satellite remote sensing of precipitation over land is a challenging problem due to the highly variable land surface emissivity, which, if not properly accounted for, can be much greater than the precipitation signal itself, especially in light rain/snow conditions. Additionally, surfaces such as arid land, deserts and snow cover have brightness temperature characteristics similar to precipitation Ongoing work by GPM microwave radiometer team is constructing databases through a variety of means, however, there is much uncertainty as to what is the optimal information needed for the wide array of sensors in the GPM constellation, including examination of regional conditions. The original data sets will focus on stratification by emissivity class, surface temperature and total perceptible water. We'll perform sensitivity studies to determine the potential role of ancillary data (e.g., land surface temperature, snow cover/water equivalent, etc.) to improve precipitation estimation over land in different climate regimes, including rain and snow. In other words, what information outside of the radiances can help describe the background and subsequent departures from it that are active precipitating regions? It is likely that this information will be a function of the various precipitation regimes. Statistical methods such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) will be utilized in this task. Databases from a variety of sources are being constructed. They include existing satellite microwave measurements of precipitating and non-precipitating conditions, ground radar precipitation rate estimates, surface emissivity climatology from satellites, surface temperature and TPW from NWP reanalysis. Results from the analysis of these databases with respect to the microwave precipitation sensitivity to the variety of environmental conditions in different climate regimes will be discussed.

Sensitivity of Historical Simulation of the Permafrost to Different Atmospheric Forcing Data Sets from 1979 to 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Donglin; Wang, Huijun; Wang, Aihui

2017-11-01

Numerical simulation is of great importance to the investigation of changes in frozen ground on large spatial and long temporal scales. Previous studies have focused on the impacts of improvements in the model for the simulation of frozen ground. Here the sensitivities of permafrost simulation to different atmospheric forcing data sets are examined using the Community Land Model, version 4.5 (CLM4.5), in combination with three sets of newly developed and reanalysis-based atmospheric forcing data sets (NOAA Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-I), and NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA)). All three simulations were run from 1979 to 2009 at a resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° and validated with what is considered to be the best available permafrost observations (soil temperature, active layer thickness, and permafrost extent). Results show that the use of reanalysis-based atmospheric forcing data set reproduces the variations in soil temperature and active layer thickness but produces evident biases in their climatologies. Overall, the simulations based on the CFSR and ERA-I data sets give more reasonable results than the simulation based on the MERRA data set, particularly for the present-day permafrost extent and the change in active layer thickness. The three simulations produce ranges for the present-day climatology (permafrost area: 11.31-13.57 × 106 km2; active layer thickness: 1.10-1.26 m) and for recent changes (permafrost area: -5.8% to -9.0%; active layer thickness: 9.9%-20.2%). The differences in air temperature increase, snow depth, and permafrost thermal conditions in these simulations contribute to the differences in simulated results.

Dynamical Downscaling over Siberia: Is there an added value in representing recent climate conditions?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klehmet, K.; Rockel, B.

2012-04-01

The analysis of long-term changes and variability of climate variables for the large areal extent of Siberia - covering arctic, subarctic and temperate northern latitudes - is hampered by the sparseness of in-situ observations. To counteract this deficiency we aimed to provide a reconstruction of regional climate for the period 1948-2010 getting homogenous, consistent fields of various terrestrial and atmospheric parameters for Siberia. In order to obtain in addition a higher temporal and spatial resolution than global datasets can provide, we performed the reconstruction using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (climate mode of the limited area model COSMO developed by the German weather service). However, the question arises whether the dynamically downscaled data of reanalysis can improve the representation of recent climate conditions. As global forcing for the initialization and the regional boundaries we use NCEP-1 Reanalysis of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction since it has the longest temporal data coverage among the reanalysis products. Additionally, spectral nudging is applied to prevent the regional model from deviating from the prescribed large-scale circulation within the whole simulation domain. The area of interest covers a region in Siberia, spanning from the Laptev Sea and Kara Sea to Northern Mongolia and from the West Siberian Lowland to the border of Sea of Okhotsk. The current horizontal resolution is of about 50 km which is planned to be increased to 25 km. To answer the question, we investigate spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature and precipitation of the model output in comparison to global reanalysis data (NCEP-1, ERA40, ERA-Interim). As reference Russian station data from the "Global Summary of the Day" data set, provided by NCDC, is used. Temperature is analyzed with respect to its climatologically spatial patterns across the model domain and its variability of extremes based on climate indices derived from daily mean, maximum, minimum temperature (e.g. frost days) for different subregions. The decreasing number of frost days from north to south of the region, calculated from the reanalysis datasets and COSMO-CLM output, indicates the temperature gradient from the arctic to temperate latitudes. For most of the considered subregions NCEP-1 shows more frost days than ERA-Interim and COSMO-CLM.

The relationship between Arabian Sea upwelling and Indian Monsoon revisited in a high resolution ocean simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Xing; Hünicke, Birgit; Tim, Nele; Zorita, Eduardo

2018-01-01

Studies based on sediment records, sea-surface temperature and wind suggest that upwelling along the western coast of Arabian Sea is strongly affected by the Indian summer Monsoon. We examine this relationship directly in an eddy-resolving global ocean simulation STORM driven by atmospheric reanalysis over the last 61 years. With its very high spatial resolution (10 km), STORM allows us to identify characteristics of the upwelling system. We analyse the co-variability between upwelling and meteorological and oceanic variables from 1950 to 2010. The analysis reveals high interannual correlations between coastal upwelling and along-shore wind-stress (r = 0.73) as well as with sea-surface temperature (r = -0.83). However, the correlation between the upwelling and the Monsoon is small. We find an atmospheric circulation pattern different from the one that drives the Monsoon as the main modulator of the upwelling variability. In spite of this, the patterns of temperature anomalies that are either linked to Arabian Sea upwelling or to the Monsoon are spatially quite similar, although the physical mechanisms of these links are different. In addition, no long-term trend is detected in our modelled upwelling in the Arabian Sea.

Summertime evolution of snow specific surface area close to the surface on the Antarctic Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Libois, Q.; Picard, G.; Arnaud, L.; Dumont, M.; Lafaysse, M.; Morin, S.; Lefebvre, E.

2015-12-01

On the Antarctic Plateau, snow specific surface area (SSA) close to the surface shows complex variations at daily to seasonal scales which affect the surface albedo and in turn the surface energy budget of the ice sheet. While snow metamorphism, precipitation and strong wind events are known to drive SSA variations, usually in opposite ways, their relative contributions remain unclear. Here, a comprehensive set of SSA observations at Dome C is analysed with respect to meteorological conditions to assess the respective roles of these factors. The results show an average 2-to-3-fold SSA decrease from October to February in the topmost 10 cm in response to the increase of air temperature and absorption of solar radiation in the snowpack during spring and summer. Surface SSA is also characterized by significant daily to weekly variations due to the deposition of small crystals with SSA up to 100 m2 kg-1 onto the surface during snowfall and blowing snow events. To complement these field observations, the detailed snowpack model Crocus is used to simulate SSA, with the intent to further investigate the previously found correlation between interannual variability of summer SSA decrease and summer precipitation amount. To this end, some Crocus parameterizations have been adapted to Dome C conditions, and the model was forced by ERA-Interim reanalysis. It successfully matches the observations at daily to seasonal timescales, except for the few cases when snowfalls are not captured by the reanalysis. On the contrary, the interannual variability of summer SSA decrease is poorly simulated when compared to 14 years of microwave satellite data sensitive to the near-surface SSA. A simulation with disabled summer precipitation confirms the weak influence in the model of the precipitation on metamorphism, with only 6 % enhancement. However, we found that disabling strong wind events in the model is sufficient to reconciliate the simulations with the observations. This suggests that Crocus reproduces well the contributions of metamorphism and precipitation on surface SSA, but snow compaction by the wind might be overestimated in the model.

Summertime evolution of snow specific surface area close to the surface on the Antarctic Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Libois, Q.; Picard, G.; Arnaud, L.; Dumont, M.; Lafaysse, M.; Morin, S.; Lefebvre, E.

2015-08-01

On the Antarctic Plateau, snow specific surface area (SSA) close to the surface shows complex variations at daily to seasonal scales which affect the surface albedo and in turn the surface energy budget of the ice sheet. While snow metamorphism, precipitation and strong wind events are known to drive SSA variations, usually in opposite ways, their relative contributions remain unclear. Here, a comprehensive set of SSA observations at Dome C is analysed with respect to meteorological conditions to assess the respective roles of these factors. The results show an average two-to-three-fold SSA decrease from October to February in the topmost 10 cm, in response to the increase of air temperature and absorption of solar radiation in the snowpack during spring and summer. Surface SSA is also characterised by significant daily to weekly variations, due to the deposition of small crystals with SSA up to 100 m2 kg-1 onto the surface during snowfall and blowing snow events. To complement these field observations, the detailed snowpack model Crocus is used to simulate SSA, with the intent to further investigate the previously found correlation between inter-annual variability of summer SSA decrease and summer precipitation amount. To this end, Crocus parameterizations have been adapted to Dome C conditions, and the model was forced by ERA-Interim reanalysis. It successfully matches the observations at daily to seasonal time scales, except for few cases when snowfalls are not captured by the reanalysis. On the contrary, the inter-annual variability of summer SSA decrease is poorly simulated when compared to 14 years of microwave satellite data sensititve to the near surface SSA. A simulation with disabled summer precipitation confirms the weak influence in the model of the precipitation on metamorphism, with only 6 % enhancement. However we found that disabling strong wind events in the model is sufficient to reconciliate the simulations with the observations. This suggests that Crocus reproduces well the contributions of metamorphism and precipitation on surface SSA, but that snow compaction by the wind might be overestimated in the model.

A comparison of sea surface salinity in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the 1997-1998, 2012-2013, and 2014-2015 ENSO events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corbett, Caroline M.; Subrahmanyam, Bulusu; Giese, Benjamin S.

2017-11-01

Sea surface salinity (SSS) variability during the 1997-1998 El Niño event and the failed 2012-2013 and 2014-2015 El Niño events is explored using a combination of observations and ocean reanalyses. Previously, studies have mainly focused on the sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) variability. This analysis utilizes salinity data from Argo and the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis to examine the SSS variability. Advective processes and evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability is understood to influence SSS variability. Using surface wind, surface current, evaporation, and precipitation data, we analyze the causes for the observed SSS variability during each event. Barrier layer thickness and upper level salt content are also examined in connection to subsurface salinity variability. Both advective processes and E-P variability are important during the generation and onset of a successful El Niño, while a lack of one or both of these processes leads to a failed ENSO event.

Comparison of the ocean surface vector winds over the Nordic Seas and their application for ocean modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Bourassa, Mark

2017-04-01

Ocean processes in the Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic are strongly controlled by air-sea heat and momentum fluxes. The predominantly cyclonic, large-scale atmospheric circulation brings the deep ocean layer up to the surface preconditioning the convective sites in the Nordic Seas for deep convection. In winter, intensive cooling and possibly salt flux from newly formed sea ice erodes the near-surface stratification and the mixed layer merges with the deeper domed layer, exposing the very weakly stratified deep water mass to direct interaction with the atmosphere. Surface wind is one of the atmospheric parameters required for estimating momentum and turbulent heat fluxes to the sea ice and ocean surface. In the ocean models forced by atmospheric analysis, errors in surface wind fields result in errors in air-sea heat and momentum fluxes, water mass formation, ocean circulation, as well as volume and heat transport in the straits. The goal of the study is to assess discrepancies across the wind vector fields from reanalysis data sets and scatterometer-derived gridded products over the Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic and to demonstrate possible implications of these differences for ocean modeling. The analyzed data sets include the reanalysis data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis 2 (NCEPR2), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR) and satellite wind products Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) wind product version 1.1 and recently released version 2.0, and Remote Sensing Systems QuikSCAT data. Large-scale and mesoscale characteristics of winds are compared at interannual, seasonal, and synoptic timescales. Numerical sensitivity experiments are conducted with a coupled ice-ocean model forced by different wind fields. The sensitivity experiments demonstrate differences in the net surface heat fluxes during storm events. Next, it is hypothesized that discrepancies in the wind vorticity fields should manifest different behaviors of the isopycnals in the Nordic Seas. Time evolution of isopycnal depths in the sensitivity experiments forced by different wind fields is discussed. Results of these sensitivity experiments demonstrate a relationship between the isopycnal surfaces and the wind stress curl. The numerical experiments are also analyzed to investigate the relationship between the East Greenland Current and the wind stress curl over the Nordic Seas. The transport of the current at this location has substantial contribution from wind-driven large-scale circulation. This wind-driven part of the East Greenland Current is a western-intensified return flow of a wind-driven cyclonic gyre in the central Nordic Seas. The numerical experiments with different wind fields reveal notable sensitivity of the East Greenland Current to differences in the wind forcing.

140-year subantarctic tree-ring temperature reconstruction reveals tropical forcing of increased Southern Ocean climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turney, C. S.; Fogwill, C. J.; Palmer, J. G.; VanSebille, E.; Thomas, Z.; McGlone, M.; Richardson, S.; Wilmshurst, J.; Fenwick, P.; Zunz, V.; Goosse, H.; Wilson, K. J.; Carter, L.; Lipson, M.; Jones, R. T.; Harsch, M.; Clark, G.; Marzinelli, E.; Rogers, T.; Rainsley, E.; Ciasto, L.; Waterman, S.; Thomas, E. R.; Visbeck, M.

2017-12-01

Occupying about 14 % of the world's surface, the Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in ocean and atmosphere circulation, carbon cycling and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics. Unfortunately, high interannual variability and a dearth of instrumental observations before the 1950s limits our understanding of how marine-atmosphere-ice domains interact on multi-decadal timescales and the impact of anthropogenic forcing. Here we integrate climate-sensitive tree growth with ocean and atmospheric observations on south-west Pacific subantarctic islands that lie at the boundary of polar and subtropical climates (52-54˚S). Our annually resolved temperature reconstruction captures regional change since the 1870s and demonstrates a significant increase in variability from the 1940s, a phenomenon predating the observational record, and coincident with major changes in mammalian and bird populations. Climate reanalysis and modelling show a parallel change in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures that generate an atmospheric Rossby wave train which propagates across a large part of the Southern Hemisphere during the austral spring and summer. Our results suggest that modern observed high interannual variability was established across the mid-twentieth century, and that the influence of contemporary equatorial Pacific temperatures may now be a permanent feature across the mid- to high latitudes.

The role of local heating in the 2015 Indian Heat Wave.

PubMed

Ghatak, Debjani; Zaitchik, Benjamin; Hain, Christopher; Anderson, Martha

2017-08-09

India faced a major heat wave during the summer of 2015. Temperature anomalies peaked in the dry period before the onset of the summer monsoon, suggesting that local land-atmosphere feedbacks involving desiccated soils and vegetation might have played a role in driving the heat extreme. Upon examination of in situ data, reanalysis, satellite observations, and land surface models, we find that the heat wave included two distinct peaks: one in late May, and a second in early June. During the first peak we find that clear skies led to a positive net radiation anomaly at the surface, but there is no significant sensible heat flux anomaly within the core of the heat wave affected region. By the time of the second peak, however, soil moisture had dropped to anomalously low levels in the core heat wave region, net surface radiation was anomalously high, and a significant positive sensible heat flux anomaly developed. This led to a substantial local forcing on air temperature that contributed to the intensity of the event. The analysis indicates that the highly agricultural landscape of North and Central India can reinforce heat extremes under dry conditions.

Enhancing Extreme Heat Health-Related Intervention and Preparedness Activities Using Remote Sensing Analysis of Daily Surface Temperature, Surface Observation Networks and Ecmwf Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, R. L.; Booth, J.; Hondula, D.; Ross, K. W.; Stuyvesant, A.; Alm, G.; Baghel, E.

2015-12-01

Extreme heat causes more human fatalities in the United States than any other natural disaster, elevating the concern of heat-related mortality. Maricopa County Arizona is known for its high heat index and its sprawling metropolitan complex which makes this region a perfect candidate for human health research. Individuals at higher risk are unequally spatially distributed, leaving the poor, homeless, non-native English speakers, elderly, and the socially isolated vulnerable to heat events. The Arizona Department of Health Services, Arizona State University and NASA DEVELOP LaRC are working to establish a more effective method of placing hydration and cooling centers in addition to enhancing the heat warning system to aid those with the highest exposure. Using NASA's Earth Observation Systems from Aqua and Terra satellites, the daily spatial variability within the UHI was quantified over the summer heat seasons from 2005 - 2014, effectively establishing a remotely sensed surface temperature climatology for the county. A series of One-way Analysis of Variance revealed significant differences between daily surface temperature averages of the top 30% of census tracts within the study period. Furthermore, synoptic upper tropospheric circulation patterns were classified to relate surface weather types and heat index. The surface weather observation networks were also reviewed for analyzing the veracity of the other methods. The results provide detailed information regarding nuances within the UHI effect and will allow pertinent recommendations regarding the health department's adaptive capacity. They also hold essential components for future policy decision-making regarding appropriate locations for cooling centers and efficient warning systems.

Variations of heat transport in the northwestern Pacific marginal seas inferred from high-resolution reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Gwang-Ho; Cho, Yang-Ki; Choi, Byoung-Ju

2014-02-01

High-resolution reanalysis of heat transport in the northwestern Pacific marginal seas was conducted for the period January 1980-December 2009 using ensemble Kalman filter. An ocean circulation model with a grid of 0.1 × 0.1° horizontal resolution and 20 vertical levels was used. Atmospheric forcing data from daily European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts were used in the ocean model. The assimilated data for the reanalysis were based on available observations of hydrographic profiles, including field surveys and Argo float and satellite-observed sea-surface temperature data. This study focused on mean and temporal variations in oceanic heat transport within the major straits among the marginal seas over 30 years. The mean heat transport in the Korea/Tsushima Strait and onshore transport across the shelf break in the East China Sea (ECS), Taiwan Strait, Tsugaru Strait, and Soya Strait were 182, 123, 82, 100, and 34 × 1012 W, respectively. The long-term trends in heat transport through the Korea/Tsushima Strait and Tsugaru Strait and onshore transport across the shelf break of the ECS were increasing, whereas the trend in heat transport through the Taiwan Strait was decreasing. There was little long-term change in heat transport in the Soya Strait. These long-term changes in heat transport through the Korea/Tsushima Strait, across the shelf of the ECS, and through the Taiwan Strait may be related to increased northeasterly wind stress in the ECS, which drives Ekman transport onto the shelf across the shelf break.

Global Trends and Variability in Integrated Water Vapor from Ground-Based GPS Data and Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bock, O.; Parracho, A. C.; Bastin, S.; Hourdin, F.

2016-12-01

A high-quality, consistent, global, long-term dataset of integrated water vapor (IWV) was produced from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements at more than 400 sites over the globe among which 120 sites have more than 15 years of data. The GPS delay data were converted to IWV using surface pressure and weighted mean temperature estimates from ERA-Interim reanalysis. A two-step screening method was developed to detect and remove outliers in the IWV data. It is based on: 1) GPS data processing information and delay formal errors, and 2) inter-comparison with ERA-Interim reanalysis data. The GPS IWV data are also homogenized to correct for offsets due to instrumental changes and other unknown factors. The differential homogenization method uses ERA-Interim IWV as a reference. The resulting GPS data are used to document the mean distribution, the global trends and the variability of IWV over the period 1995-2010, and to assess global climate model simulations extracted from the IPCC AR5 archive. Large coherent spatial patterns of moistening and drying are evidenced but significant discrepancies are also seen between GPS measurements, reanalysis and climate models in various regions. In terms of variability, the monthly mean anomalies are inter-compared. The temporal correlation between GPS and the climate model simulations is overall quite small but the spatial variation of the magnitude of the anomalies is globally well simulated. GPS IWV data prove to be useful to validate global climate model simulations and highlight deficiencies in their representation of the water cycle.

Nonhydrostatic nested climate modeling: A case study of the 2010 summer season over the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebassi-Habtezion, Bereket; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2013-10-01

potential importance of local-scale climate phenomena motivates development of approaches to enable computationally feasible nonhydrostatic climate simulations. To that end, we evaluate the potential viability of nested nonhydrostatic model approaches, using the summer climate of the western United States (WUSA) as a case study. We use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to carry out five simulations of summer 2010. This suite allows us to test differences between nonhydrostatic and hydrostatic resolutions, single and multiple nesting approaches, and high- and low-resolution reanalysis boundary conditions. WRF simulations were evaluated against station observations, gridded observations, and reanalysis data over domains that cover the 11 WUSA states at nonhydrostatic grid spacing of 4 km and hydrostatic grid spacing of 25 km and 50 km. Results show that the nonhydrostatic simulations more accurately resolve the heterogeneity of surface temperature, precipitation, and wind speed features associated with the topography and orography of the WUSA region. In addition, we find that the simulation in which the nonhydrostatic grid is nested directly within the regional reanalysis exhibits the greatest overall agreement with observational data. Results therefore indicate that further development of nonhydrostatic nesting approaches is likely to yield important insights into the response of local-scale climate phenomena to increases in global greenhouse gas concentrations. However, the biases in regional precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and moisture flux identified in a subset of the nonhydrostatic simulations suggest that alternative nonhydrostatic modeling approaches such as superparameterization and variable-resolution global nonhydrostatic modeling will provide important complements to the nested approaches tested here.

Links Between the Deep Western Boundary Current, Labrador Sea Water Formation and Export, and the Meridional Overturning Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myers, Paul G.; Kulan, Nilgun

2010-05-01

Based on an isopyncal analysis of historical data, 3-year overlapping triad fields of objectively analysed temperature and salinity are produced for the Labrador Sea, covering 1949-1999. These fields are then used to spectrally nudge an eddy-permitting ocean general circulation model of the sub-polar gyre, otherwise forced by inter annually varying surface forcing based upon the Coordinated Ocean Reference Experiment (CORE). High frequency output from the reanalysis is used to examine Labrador Sea Water formation and its export. A number of different apprpoaches are used to estimate Labrador Sea Water formation, including an instanteous kinematic approach to calculate the annual rate of water mass subduction at a given density range. Historical transports are computed along sections at 53 and 56N for several different water masses for comparison with recent observations, showing a decline in the stength of the deep western boundary current with time. The variability of the strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) from the reanalysis is also examined in both depth and density space. Linkages between MOC variability and water mass formation variability is considered.

The Impact of Trends in the Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation on Mediterranean Surface Turbulent Heat Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romanski, Joy; Hameed, Sultan

2015-01-01

Interannual variations of latent heat fluxes (LHF) and sensible heat fluxes (SHF) over the Mediterranean for the boreal winter season (DJF) show positive trends during 1958-2011. Using reanalysis and satellite-based products, the variability and trends in the heat fluxes are compared with variations in three atmospheric teleconnection patterns: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the pressure and position of the Azores High (AH), and the East Atlantic-West Russia teleconnection pattern (EAWR). Comparison of correlations between the heat fluxes and teleconnections, along with analysis of composites of surface temperature, humidity, and wind fields for different teleconnection states, demonstrates that the AH explains the heat flux changes more successfully than NAO and EAWR. Trends in pressure and longitude of the Azores High show a strengthening and an eastward shift. Variations of the Azores High occur along an axis defined by lower pressure and westward location at one extreme and higher pressure and eastward location at the other extreme. The shift of the AH from predominance of the low/west state to the high/east state induces trends in Mediterranean Sea surface winds, temperature, and moisture. These, combined with sea surface warming trends, produce trends in wintertime sensible and latent heat fluxes.

Adjusted Levenberg-Marquardt method application to methene retrieval from IASI/METOP spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khamatnurova, Marina; Gribanov, Konstantin

2016-04-01

Levenberg-Marquardt method [1] with iteratively adjusted parameter and simultaneous evaluation of averaging kernels together with technique of parameters selection are developed and applied to the retrieval of methane vertical profiles in the atmosphere from IASI/METOP spectra. Retrieved methane vertical profiles are then used for calculation of total atmospheric column amount. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data provided by ESRL (NOAA, Boulder,USA) [2] are taken as initial guess for retrieval algorithm. Surface temperature, temperature and humidity vertical profiles are retrieved before methane vertical profile retrieval for each selected spectrum. Modified software package FIRE-ARMS [3] were used for numerical experiments. To adjust parameters and validate the method we used ECMWF MACC reanalysis data [4]. Methane columnar values retrieved from cloudless IASI spectra demonstrate good agreement with MACC columnar values. Comparison is performed for IASI spectra measured in May of 2012 over Western Siberia. Application of the method for current IASI/METOP measurements are discussed. 1.Ma C., Jiang L. Some Research on Levenberg-Marquardt Method for the Nonlinear Equations // Applied Mathematics and Computation. 2007. V.184. P. 1032-1040 2.http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psdhttp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd 3.Gribanov K.G., Zakharov V.I., Tashkun S.A., Tyuterev Vl.G.. A New Software Tool for Radiative Transfer Calculations and its application to IMG/ADEOS data // JQSRT.2001.V.68.№ 4. P. 435-451. 4.http://www.ecmwf.int/http://www.ecmwf.int

Controls of air temperature variability over an Alpine Glacier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaw, Thomas; Brock, Ben; Ayala, Álvaro; Rutter, Nick

2016-04-01

Near surface air temperature (Ta) is one of the most important controls on energy exchange between a glacier surface and the overlying atmosphere. However, not enough detail is known about the controls on Ta across a glacier due to sparse data availability. Recent work has provided insights into variability of Ta along glacier centre-lines in different parts of the world, yet there is still a limited understanding of off-centreline variability in Ta and how best to estimate it from distant off-glacier locations. We present a new dataset of distributed 2m Ta records for the Tsanteleina Glacier in Northwest Italy from July-September, 2015. Data provide detailed information of lateral (across-glacier) and centre-line variations in Ta, with ~20,000 hourly observations from 17 locations. The suitability of different vertical temperature gradients (VTGs) in estimating air temperature is considered under a range of meteorological conditions and from different forcing locations. A key finding is that local VTGs account for a lot of Ta variability under a broad range of climatic conditions. However, across-glacier variability is found to be significant, particularly for high ambient temperatures and for localised topographic depressions. The relationship of spatial Ta patterns with regional-scale reanalysis data and alternative Ta estimation methodologies are also presented. This work improves the knowledge of local scale Ta variations and their importance to melt modelling.

Simulation of Changes in the Near-Surface Soil Freeze/Thaw Cycle Using CLM4.5 With Four Atmospheric Forcing Data Sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Donglin; Wang, Aihui; Li, Duo; Hua, Wei

2018-03-01

Change in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle is critical for assessments of hydrological activity, ecosystems, and climate change. Previous studies investigated the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle change mostly based on in situ observations and satellite monitoring. Here numerical simulation method is tested to estimate the long-term change in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle in response to recent climate warming for its application to predictions. Four simulations are performed at 0.5° × 0.5° resolution from 1979 to 2009 using the Community Land Model version 4.5, each driven by one of the four atmospheric forcing data sets (i.e., one default Climate Research Unit-National Centers for Environmental Prediction [CRUNCEP] and three newly developed Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim). The observations from 299 weather stations in both Russia and China are employed to validate the simulated results. The results show that all simulations reasonably reproduce the observed variations in the ground temperature, the freeze start and end dates, and the freeze duration (the correlation coefficients range from 0.47 to 0.99, and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies range from 0.19 to 0.98). Part of the simulations also exactly simulate the trends of the ground temperature, the freeze start and end dates, and the freeze duration. Of the four simulations, the results from the simulation using the CRUNCEP data set show the best overall agreement with the in situ observations, indicating that the CRUNCEP data set could be preferentially considered as the basic atmospheric forcing data set for future prediction. The simulated area-averaged annual freeze duration shortened by 8.03 days on average from 1979 to 2009, with an uncertainty (one standard deviation) of 0.67 days caused by the different atmospheric forcing data sets. These results address the performance of numerical model in simulating the long-term changes in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle and the role of different atmospheric forcing data sets in the simulation, which are useful for the prediction of future freeze/thaw dynamics.

Decadal reanalysis of biogeochemical indicators and fluxes in the North West European shelf-sea ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciavatta, S.; Kay, S.; Saux-Picart, S.; Butenschön, M.; Allen, J. I.

2016-03-01

This paper presents the first decadal reanalysis simulation of the biogeochemistry of the North West European shelf, along with a full evaluation of its skill, confidence, and value. An error-characterized satellite product for chlorophyll was assimilated into a physical-biogeochemical model of the North East Atlantic, applying a localized Ensemble Kalman filter. The results showed that the reanalysis improved the model simulation of assimilated chlorophyll in 60% of the study region. Model validation metrics showed that the reanalysis had skill in matching a large data set of in situ observations for 10 ecosystem variables. Spearman rank correlations were significant and higher than 0.7 for physical-chemical variables (temperature, salinity, and oxygen), ˜0.6 for chlorophyll and nutrients (phosphate, nitrate, and silicate), and significant, though lower in value, for partial pressure of dissolved carbon dioxide (˜0.4). The reanalysis captured the magnitude of pH and ammonia observations, but not their variability. The value of the reanalysis for assessing environmental status and variability has been exemplified in two case studies. The first shows that between 325,000 and 365,000 km2 of shelf bottom waters were vulnerable to oxygen deficiency potentially threatening bottom fishes and benthos. The second application confirmed that the shelf is a net sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide, but the total amount of uptake varies between 36 and 46 Tg C yr-1 at a 90% confidence level. These results indicate that the reanalysis output data set can inform the management of the North West European shelf ecosystem, in relation to eutrophication, fishery, and variability of the carbon cycle.

Connecting medieval megadroughts and surface climate in the Last Millennium Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erb, M. P.; Emile-Geay, J.; Anderson, D. M.; Hakim, G. J.; Horlick, K. A.; Noone, D.; Perkins, W. A.; Steig, E. J.; Tardif, R.

2016-12-01

The North American Drought Atlas shows severe, long-lasting droughts during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Because drought frequency and severity over the coming century is an area of vital interest, better understanding the causes of these historic droughts is crucial. A variety of research has suggested that a La Niña state was important for producing medieval megadroughts [1], and other work has indicated the potential roles of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [2] and internal atmospheric variability [3]. Correlations between drought and large-scale climate patterns also exist in the instrumental record [4], but understanding these relationships is far from complete. To investigate these relationships further, a data assimilation approach is employed. Proxy records - including tree rings, corals, and ice cores - are used to constrain climate states over the Common Era. By using general circulation model (GCM) output to quantify the covariances in the climate system, climate can be constrained not just at proxy sites but for all covarying locations and climate fields. Multiple GCMs will be employed to offset the limitations of imperfect model physics. This "Last Millennium Reanalysis" will be used to quantify relationships between North American medieval megadroughts and sea surface temperature patterns in the Atlantic and Pacific. 1. Cook, E. R., et al., Earth-Sci. Rev. 81, 93 (2007). 2. Oglesby, R., et al., Global Planet. Change 84-85, 56 (2012). 3. Stevenson, S., et al., J. Climate 28, 1865 (2015). 4. Cook, B. I., et al., J. Climate 27, 383 (2014).

Concerted Earth Observation and Prediction of Water and Energy Cycles in the Third Pole Environment (CEOP-TPE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Bob; Ma, Yaoming; Menenti, Massimo; Wen, Jun; Sobrino, Jose; He, Yanbo; Li, Zhao-Liang; Tang, Bohui; Sneeuw, Nico; Zhong, Lei; Zeng, Yijian; van der Veld, Rogier; Chen, Xuelong; Zheng, Donghai; Huang, Ying; Lv, Shaoning; Wang, Lichun

2016-08-01

The achievements made in Dragon III in 2014-2016 are listed below:1. Maintaining the Tibetan Plateau Soil Moisture and Soil Temperature Observatory (Tibet-Obs) [1-3] and developing a method and data product by blending SM product over Tibetan Plateau and evaluating other available SM products [4].2. Developing a new algorithm for representing the effective soil temperature in microwave radiometry [5-7].3. Developing data sets to study the regional and plateau scale land-atmosphere interactions in TPE [8-11].4. Identifying and developing improved land surface processes [12-15].5. Developing a method for the quantification of water cycle components based on earth observation data and a comparison to reanalysis data [16-17].6. Investigating and revealing the mechanism of surface and tropospheric heatings on the Tibetan plateau [18].7. Proposing a validation framework for the generationof climate data records [19].8. Graduating seven young scientists with their doctorates during the last two years of Dragon III programme.9. Making the datasets and algorithms accessible to the scientific community.

Simulation of seasonal US precipitation and temperature by the nested CWRF-ECHAM system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ligang; Liang, Xin-Zhong; DeWitt, David; Samel, Arthur N.; Wang, Julian X. L.

2016-02-01

This study investigates the refined simulation skill that results when the regional Climate extension of the Weather Research and Forecasting (CWRF) model is nested in the ECMWF Hamburg version 4.5 (ECHAM) atmospheric general circulation model over the United States during 1980-2009, where observed sea surface temperatures are used in both models. Over the contiguous US, for each of the four seasons from winter to fall, CWRF reduces the root mean square error of the ECHAM seasonal mean surface air temperature simulation by 0.19, 0.82, 2.02 and 1.85 °C, and increases the equitable threat score of seasonal mean precipitation by 0.18, 0.11, 0.09 and 0.12. CWRF also simulates much more realistically daily precipitation frequency and heavy precipitation events, typically over the Central Great Plains, Cascade Mountains and Gulf Coast States. These CWRF skill enhancements are attributed to the increased spatial resolution and physics refinements in representing orographic, terrestrial hydrology, convection, and cloud-aerosol-radiation effects and their interactions. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature interannual variability shows that, in general, CWRF substantially improves the spatial distribution of both quantities, while temporal evolution (i.e. interannual variability) of the first 3 primary patterns is highly correlated with that of the driving ECHAM (except for summer precipitation), and they both have low temporal correlations against observations. During winter, when large-scale forcing dominates, both models also have similar responses to strong ENSO signals where they successfully capture observed precipitation composite anomalies but substantially fail to reproduce surface air temperature anomalies. When driven by the ECMWF Reanalysis Interim, CWRF produces a very realistic interannual evolution of large-scale precipitation and surface air temperature patterns where the temporal correlations with observations are significant. These results indicate that CWRF can greatly improve mesoscale regional climate structures but it cannot change interannual variations of the large-scale patterns, which are determined by the driving lateral boundary conditions.

Stratospheric water vapor and ozone evaluation in reanalyses as part of the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, S. M.; Hegglin, M. I.; Fujiwara, M.; Manney, G. L.; Dragani, R.; Nash, E.; Tegtmeier, S.; Kobayashi, C.; Harada, Y.; Long, C. S.; Wargan, K.; Rosenlof, K. H.

2017-12-01

Reanalyses are widely used to understand atmospheric processes and past variability, and are often used to stand in as "observations" for comparisons with climate model output. Because of the central role of water vapor (WV) and ozone (O3) in climate change, it is important to understand how accurately and consistently these species are represented in existing global reanalyses. Here we present the results of WV and O3 intercomparisons that have been performed as part of the SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP). The comparisons cover a range of timescales and evaluate both inter-reanalysis and observation-reanalysis differences. The assimilation of total column ozone (TCO) observations in newer reanalyses results in realistic representations of TCO in reanalyses except when data coverage is lacking, such as during polar night. The vertical distribution of ozone is also relatively well represented in the stratosphere in reanalyses, particularly given the relatively weak constraints on ozone vertical structure provided by most assimilated observations and the simplistic representations of ozone photochemical processes in most of the reanalysis forecast models. For times when vertically resolved observations are not assimilated, biases in the vertical distribution of ozone are found in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in all reanalyses. In contrast to O3, reanalysis stratospheric WV fields are not directly constrained by assimilated data. Observations of atmospheric humidity are typically used only in the troposphere, below a specified vertical level at or near the tropopause. The fidelity of reanalysis stratospheric WV products is therefore dependent on the reanalyses' representation of processes that influence stratospheric WV, such as tropical tropopause layer temperatures and methane oxidation. The lack of assimilated observations and known deficiencies in the representation of stratospheric transport in reanalyses result in much poorer agreement amongst observational and reanalysis estimates of stratospheric WV. Hence, stratospheric WV products from the current generation of reanalyses should generally not be used in scientific studies.

Inter comparison of Tropical Indian Ocean features in different ocean reanalysis products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karmakar, Ananya; Parekh, Anant; Chowdary, J. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

2017-09-01

This study makes an inter comparison of ocean state of the Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) in different ocean reanalyses such as global ocean data assimilation system (GODAS), ensemble coupled data assimilation (ECDA), ocean reanalysis system 4 (ORAS4) and simple ocean data assimilation (SODA) with reference to the in-situ buoy observations, satellite observed sea surface temperature (SST), EN4 analysis and ocean surface current analysis real time (OSCAR). Analysis of mean state of SST and sea surface salinity (SSS) reveals that ORAS4 is better comparable with satellite observations as well as EN4 analysis, and is followed by SODA, ECDA and GODAS. The surface circulation in ORAS4 is closer to OSCAR compared to the other reanalyses. However mixed layer depth (MLD) is better simulated by SODA, followed by ECDA, ORAS4 and GODAS. Seasonal evolution of error indicates that the highest deviation in SST and MLD over the TIO exists during spring and summer in GODAS. Statistical analysis with concurrent data of EN4 for the period of 1980-2010 supports that the difference and standard deviation (variability strength) ratio for SSS and MLD is mostly greater than one. In general the strength of variability is overestimated by all the reanalyses. Further comparison with in-situ buoy observations supports that MLD errors over the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) and the Bay of Bengal are higher than with EN4 analysis. Overall ORAS4 displays higher correlation and lower error among all reanalyses with respect to both EN4 analysis and buoy observations. Major issues in the reanalyses are the underestimation of upper ocean stability in the TIO, underestimation of surface current in the EIO, overestimation of vertical shear of current and improper variability in different oceanic variables. To improve the skill of reanalyses over the TIO, salinity vertical structure and upper ocean circulation need to be better represented in reanalyses.

Geophysical Global Modeling for Extreme Crop Production Using Photosynthesis Models Coupled to Ocean SST Dipoles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaneko, D.

2016-12-01

Climate change appears to have manifested itself along with abnormal meteorological disasters. Instability caused by drought and flood disasters is producing poor harvests because of poor photosynthesis and pollination. Fluctuations of extreme phenomena are increasing rapidly because amplitudes of change are much greater than average trends. A fundamental cause of these phenomena derives from increased stored energy inside ocean waters. Geophysical and biochemical modeling of crop production can elucidate complex mechanisms under seasonal climate anomalies. The models have progressed through their combination with global climate reanalysis, environmental satellite data, and harvest data on the ground. This study examined adaptation of crop production to advancing abnormal phenomena related to global climate change. Global environmental surface conditions, i.e., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. Basic streams of the concepts of modeling rely upon continental energy flow and carbon circulation among crop vegetation, land surface atmosphere combining energy advection from ocean surface anomalies. Global environmental surface conditions, e.g., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. The method of validating the modeling relies upon carbon partitioning in biomass and grains through carbon flow by photosynthesis using carbon dioxide unit in photosynthesis. Results of computations done for this study show global distributions of actual evaporation, stomata opening, and photosynthesis, presenting mechanisms related to advection effects from SST anomalies in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans on global and continental croplands. For North America, climate effects appear clearly in severe atmospheric phenomena, which have caused drought and forest fires through seasonal advection thermal effects on potential evaporation by winds blowing eastward over California, the Grand Canyon, Monument Valley, and into the Great Plains. These coupled SST photosynthesis models constitute an advanced approach for crop modeling in the era of recent new climate.

Hurricane Data Analysis Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Zhong; Ostrenga, Dana; Leptoukh, Gregory

2011-01-01

In order to facilitate Earth science data access, the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data Information Services Center (GES DISC) has developed a web prototype, the Hurricane Data Analysis Tool (HDAT; URL: http://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/HDAT), to allow users to conduct online visualization and analysis of several remote sensing and model datasets for educational activities and studies of tropical cyclones and other weather phenomena. With a web browser and few mouse clicks, users can have a full access to terabytes of data and generate 2-D or time-series plots and animation without downloading any software and data. HDAT includes data from the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the NASA Quick Scatterometer(QuikSCAT) and NECP Reanalysis, and the NCEP/CPC half-hourly, 4-km Global (60 N - 60 S) IR Dataset. The GES DISC archives TRMM data. The daily global rainfall product derived from the 3-hourly multi-satellite precipitation product (3B42 V6) is available in HDAT. The TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) sea surface temperature from the Remote Sensing Systems is in HDAT as well. The NASA QuikSCAT ocean surface wind and the NCEP Reanalysis provide ocean surface and atmospheric conditions, respectively. The global merged IR product, also known as, the NCEP/CPC half-hourly, 4-km Global (60 N -60 S) IR Dataset, is one of TRMM ancillary datasets. They are globally-merged pixel-resolution IR brightness temperature data (equivalent blackbody temperatures), merged from all available geostationary satellites (GOES-8/10, METEOSAT-7/5 & GMS). The GES DISC has collected over 10 years of the data beginning from February of 2000. This high temporal resolution (every 30 minutes) dataset not only provides additional background information to TRMM and other satellite missions, but also allows observing a wide range of meteorological phenomena from space, such as, hurricanes, typhoons, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convection system, etc. Basic functions include selection of area of interest and time, single imagery, overlay of two different products, animation,a time skip capability and different image size outputs. Users can save an animation as a file (animated gif) and import it in other presentation software, such as, Microsoft PowerPoint. Since the tool can directly access the real data, more features and functionality can be added in the future.

Simulated variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bentsen, M.; Drange, H.; Furevik, T.; Zhou, T.

To examine the multi-annual to decadal scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) we conducted a four-member ensemble with a daily reanalysis forced, medium-resolution global version of the isopycnic coordinate ocean model MICOM, and a 300-years integration with the fully coupled Bergen Climate Model (BCM). The simulations of the AMOC with both model systems yield a long-term mean value of 18 Sv and decadal variability with an amplitude of 1-3 Sv. The power spectrum of the inter-annual to decadal scale variability of the AMOC in BCM generally follows the theoretical red noise spectrum, with indications of increased power near the 20-years period. Comparison with observational proxy indices for the AMOC, e.g. the thickness of the Labrador Sea Water, the strength of the baroclinic gyre circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean, and the surface temperature anomalies along the mean path of the Gulf Stream, shows similar trends and phasing of the variability, indicating that the simulated AMOC variability is robust and real. Mixing indices have been constructed for the Labrador, the Irminger and the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) seas. While convective mixing in the Labrador and the GIN seas are in opposite phase, and linked to the NAO as observations suggest, the convective mixing in the Irminger Sea is in phase with or leads the Labrador Sea. Newly formed deep water is seen as a slow, anomalous cold and fresh, plume flowing southward along the western continental slope of the Atlantic Ocean, with a return flow of warm and saline water on the surface. In addition, fast-travelling topographically trapped waves propagate southward along the continental slope towards equator, where they go east and continue along the eastern rim of the Atlantic. For both types of experiments, the Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure and 2 m temperature anomaly patterns computed based on the difference between climate states with strong and weak AMOC yields a NAO-like pattern with intensified Icelandic low and Azores high, and a warming of 0.25-0.5 °C of the central North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST). The reanalysis forced simulations indicate a coupling between the Labrador Sea Water production rate and an equatorial Atlantic SST index in accordance with observations. This coupling is not identified in the coupled simulation.

Recent glacier surface snowpack melt in Novaya Zemlya and Severnaya Zemlya derived from active and passive microwave remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Meng

The warming rate in the Russian High Arctic (RHA) (36˜158°E, 73˜82°N) is outpacing the pan-Arctic average, and its effect on the small glaciers across this region needs further examination. The temporal variation and spatial distribution of surface melt onset date (MOD) and total melt days (TMD) throughout the Novaya Zemlya (NovZ) and Severnaya Zemlya (SevZ) archipelagoes serve as good indicators of ice mass ablation and glacier response to regional climate change in the RHA. However, due to the harsh environment, long-term glaciological observations are limited, necessitating the application of remotely sensed data to study the surface melt dynamics. The high sensitivity to liquid water and the ability to work without solar illumination and penetrate non-precipitating clouds make microwave remote sensing an ideal tool to detect melt in this region. This work extracts resolution-enhanced passive and active microwave data from different periods and retrieves a decadal melt record for NovZ and SevZ. The high correlation among passive and active data sets instills confidence in the results. The mean MOD is June 20th on SevZ and June 10th on NovZ during the period of 1992-2012. The average TMDs are 47 and 67 days on SevZ and NovZ from 1995 to 2011, respectively. NovZ had large interannual variability in the MOD, but its TMD generally increased. SevZ MOD is found to be positively correlated to local June reanalysis air temperature at 850hPa geopotential height and occurs significantly earlier (˜0.73 days/year, p-value < 0.01) from 1992 to 2011. SevZ also experienced a longer TMD trend (˜0.75 days/year, p-value < 0.05) from 1995 to 2011. Annual mean TMD on both islands are positively correlated with regional summer mean reanalysis air temperature and negatively correlated to local sea ice extent. These strong correlations might suggest that the Russian High Arctic glaciers are vulnerable to the continuously diminishing sea ice extent, the associated air temperature increase and amplifying positive ice-albedo feedback, which are all projected to continue into the future.

Seasonal and interannual variability of atmospheric heat sources and moisture sinks as determined from NCEP/NCAR ranalysis. Part I

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yanai, Michio; Tomita, Tomohiko

1997-11-01

In this paper, an analysis of the heat and moisture budgets of the troposphere is revised and extended. The analysis is based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis from 1980 to 1994. The seasonal and interannual variability of heat sources and sinks and the nature of heating over various geographical locations is examined in detail. Results presented include global distributions of the 15-year mean of the vertically integrated heat source and moisture sink and the outgoing longwave radiation flux for northern winter and northern summer. A time series of monthlymore » mean anomalies of the apparent heat source, the apparent moisture sink, outgoing longwave radiation, sea surface temperature, and divergence at wind fields of 850 hPa and 200 hPa are presented for the equatorial Indian Ocean, the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, western Tibet, and eastern Tibet. In the equatorial Indian Ocean, short period oscillation is superimposed upon longer periods. Over the eastern Pacific, a longer periodicity is dominant and the variability of the heat source is very well correlated with similar variations of outgoing longwave radiation, sea surface temperature, and horizontal divergence. The high correlation with these variables suggests that anomalous heating is accompanied by intensified convective activity favored by warmer sea surface temperature. 13 refs., 5 figs.« less

Evaluation of a 12-km Satellite-Era Reanalysis of Surface Mass Balance for the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cullather, R. I.; Nowicki, S.; Zhao, B.; Max, S.

2016-12-01

The recent contribution to sea level change from the Greenland Ice Sheet is thought to be strongly driven by surface processes including melt and runoff. Global reanalyses are potential means of reconstructing the historical time series of ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), but lack spatial resolution needed to resolve ablation areas along the periphery of the ice sheet. In this work, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) is used to examine the spatial and temporal variability of surface melt over the Greenland Ice Sheet. MERRA-2 is produced for the period 1980 to the present at a grid spacing of ½° latitude by ⅝° longitude, and includes snow hydrology processes including compaction, meltwater percolation and refreezing, runoff, and a prognostic surface albedo. The configuration of the MERRA-2 system allows for the background model - the Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5) - to be carried in phase space through analyzed states via the computation of analysis increments, a capability referred to as "replay". Here, a MERRA-2 replay integration is conducted in which atmospheric forcing fields are interpolated and adjusted to sub- atmospheric grid-scale resolution. These adjustments include lapse-rate effects on temperature, humidity, precipitation, and other atmospheric variables that are known to have a strong elevation dependency over ice sheets. The surface coupling is performed such that mass and energy are conserved. The atmospheric forcing influences the surface representation, which operates on land surface tiles with an approximate 12-km spacing. This produces a high-resolution, downscaled SMB which is interactively coupled to the reanalysis model. We compare the downscaled SMB product with other reanalyses, regional climate model values, and a second MERRA-2 replay in which the background model has been replaced with a 12-km, non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5. The assessment focuses on regional changes in SMB and SMB components, the identification of changes and temporal variability in the SMB equilibrium line, and the relation between SMB and other climate variables related to general circulation.

Tropical Forcing of the Summer East Atlantic Pattern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wulff, C. Ole; Greatbatch, Richard J.; Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Gollan, Gereon; Hansen, Felicitas

2017-11-01

The Summer East Atlantic (SEA) mode is the second dominant mode of summer low-frequency variability in the Euro-Atlantic region. Using reanalysis data, we show that SEA-related circulation anomalies significantly influence temperatures and precipitation over Europe. We present evidence that part of the interannual SEA variability is forced by diabatic heating anomalies of opposing signs in the tropical Pacific and Caribbean that induce an extratropical Rossby wave train. This precipitation dipole is related to SST anomalies characteristic of the developing El Niño-Southern Oscillation phases. Seasonal hindcast experiments forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) exhibit skill at capturing the interannual SEA variability corroborating the proposed mechanism and highlighting the possibility for improved prediction of boreal summer variability. Our results indicate that tropical forcing of the SEA likely played a role in the dynamics of the 2015 European heat wave.

Assessment of Precipitation Trends over Europe by Comparing ERA-20C with a New Homogenized Observational GPCC Dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rustemeier, E.; Ziese, M.; Meyer-Christoffer, A.; Finger, P.; Schneider, U.; Becker, A.

2015-12-01

Reliable data is essential for robust climate analysis. The ERA-20C reanalysis was developed during the projects ERA-CLIM and ERA-CLIM2. These projects focus on multi-decadal reanalyses of the global climate system. To ensure data quality and provide end users with information about uncertainties in these products, the 4th work package of ERA_CLIM2 deals with the quality assessment of the products including quality control and error estimation.In doing so, the monthly totals of the ERA-20C reanalysis are compared to two corresponding Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) products; the Full Data Reanalysis Version 7 and the new HOMogenized PRecipitation Analysis of European in-situ data (HOMPRA Europe).ERA-20C reanalysis was produced based on ECMWFs IFS version Cy38r1 with a spatial resolution of about 125 km. It covers the time period 1900 to 2010. Only surface observations are assimilated namely marine winds and pressure. This allows the comparison with independent, not assimilated data. The GPCC Full Data Reanalysis Version 7 comprises monthly land-surface precipitation from approximately 75,000 rain-gauges covering the time period 1901-2013. For this paper, the version with 1° resolution is utilized. For trend analysis, a monthly European subset of the ERA-20C reanalysis is investigated spanning the years 1951-2005. The European subset will be compared to a new homogenized GPCC data set HOMPRA Europe. The latter is based on a collective of 5373 homogenized monthly rain gauge time series, carefully chosen from the GPCC archive of precipitation data.For the spatial and temporal evaluation of ERA-20C, global scores on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales are calculated. These include contingency table scores, correlation, along with spatial scores such as the fractional skill score. Unsurprisingly regions with strongest deviations are those of data scarcity, mountainous regions with their luv and lee effects, and monsoon regions. They all exhibit strong biases throughout their series, and severe shifts in the means. The new HOMPRA Europe data set is useful in particular for trend analysis. Therefore it is compared to a monthly European subset of the ERA-20C reanalysis for the same period, i.e. the years 1951-2005, to study the ERA-20C capability in reproducing observed trends across Europe.

A New Neural Network Approach Including First-Guess for Retrieval of Atmospheric Water Vapor, Cloud Liquid Water Path, Surface Temperature and Emissivities Over Land From Satellite Microwave Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aires, F.; Prigent, C.; Rossow, W. B.; Rothstein, M.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The analysis of microwave observations over land to determine atmospheric and surface parameters is still limited due to the complexity of the inverse problem. Neural network techniques have already proved successful as the basis of efficient retrieval methods for non-linear cases, however, first-guess estimates, which are used in variational methods to avoid problems of solution non-uniqueness or other forms of solution irregularity, have up to now not been used with neural network methods. In this study, a neural network approach is developed that uses a first-guess. Conceptual bridges are established between the neural network and variational methods. The new neural method retrieves the surface skin temperature, the integrated water vapor content, the cloud liquid water path and the microwave surface emissivities between 19 and 85 GHz over land from SSM/I observations. The retrieval, in parallel, of all these quantities improves the results for consistency reasons. A data base to train the neural network is calculated with a radiative transfer model and a a global collection of coincident surface and atmospheric parameters extracted from the National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis, from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project data and from microwave emissivity atlases previously calculated. The results of the neural network inversion are very encouraging. The r.m.s. error of the surface temperature retrieval over the globe is 1.3 K in clear sky conditions and 1.6 K in cloudy scenes. Water vapor is retrieved with a r.m.s. error of 3.8 kg/sq m in clear conditions and 4.9 kg/sq m in cloudy situations. The r.m.s. error in cloud liquid water path is 0.08 kg/sq m . The surface emissivities are retrieved with an accuracy of better than 0.008 in clear conditions and 0.010 in cloudy conditions. Microwave land surface temperature retrieval presents a very attractive complement to the infrared estimates in cloudy areas: time record of land surface temperature will be produced.

Can Arctic sea-ice melt be explained by atmospheric meridional transports? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tjernstrom, M. K.; Graversen, R. G.

2010-12-01

The Arctic summer sea ice is melting away at an alarming rate, and it is now expected that an principally sea-ice free Arctic summer will occur much earlier than projected by the IPCC AR4 models. At the same time Arctic near-surface temperatures are rising at a rate much faster than the global average. The processes responsible for these changes are debated and many claim that local feedbacks, such as the surface albedo feedback, are the main culprits while other argue that remote effects, such as atmospheric circulation changes on synoptic and hemispheric scales, are the most important. We will explore the effects of the meridional transport by synoptic and larger scale atmospheric circulation on recent changes, using reanalysis data. It will be illustarated how this transport can contribute significant amounts of sensible heat, but also of atmospheric moisture such that local cloud feedbacks as well as the direct greenhouse effect of the water vapor contributes significantly to the surface energy balance over the Arctic polar cap.

Urban effects on regional climate: a case study in the Phoenix and Tucson ‘sun’ corridor

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao Yang,; Francina Dominguez,; Hoshin Gupta,; Xubin Zeng,; Norman, Laura M.

2016-01-01

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) due to urban expansion alter the surface albedo, heat capacity, and thermal conductivity of the surface. Consequently, the energy balance in urban regions is different from that of natural surfaces. To evaluate the changes in regional climate that could arise due to projected urbanization in the Phoenix-Tucson corridor, Arizona, we applied the coupled WRF-NOAH-UCM (which includes a detailed urban radiation scheme) to this region. Land cover changes were represented using land cover data for 2005 and projections to 2050, and historical North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data were used to specify the lateral boundary conditions. Results suggest that temperature changes will be well defined, reflecting the urban heat island (UHI) effect within areas experiencing LULCC. Changes in precipitation are less robust, but seem to indicate reductions in precipitation over the mountainous regions northeast of Phoenix and decreased evening precipitation over the newly-urbanized area.

Ensemble-Based Assimilation of Aerosol Observations in GEOS-5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buchard, V.; Da Silva, A.

2016-01-01

MERRA-2 is the latest Aerosol Reanalysis produced at NASA's Global Modeling Assimilation Office (GMAO) from 1979 to present. This reanalysis is based on a version of the GEOS-5 model radiatively coupled to GOCART aerosols and includes assimilation of bias corrected Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from AVHRR over ocean, MODIS sensors on both Terra and Aqua satellites, MISR over bright surfaces and AERONET data. In order to assimilate lidar profiles of aerosols, we are updating the aerosol component of our assimilation system to an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) type of scheme using ensembles generated routinely by the meteorological assimilation. Following the work performed with the first NASA's aerosol reanalysis (MERRAero), we first validate the vertical structure of MERRA-2 aerosol assimilated fields using CALIOP data over regions of particular interest during 2008.

An 8-year, high-resolution reanalysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide mixing ratios based on OCO-2 and GOSAT-ACOS retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weir, B.; Chatterjee, A.; Ott, L. E.; Pawson, S.

2017-12-01

This talk presents an overview of results from the GEOS-Carb reanalysis of retrievals of average-column carbon dioxide (XCO2) from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) and Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) satellite missions. The reanalysis is a Level 3 (L3) product: a collection of 3D fields of carbon dioxide (CO2) mixing ratios every 6 hours beginning in April 2009 going until the present on a grid with a 0.5 degree horizontal resolution and 72 vertical levels from the surface to 0.01 hPa. Using an assimilation methodology based on the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS), the L3 fields are weighted averages of the two satellite retrievals and predictions from the GEOS general circulation model driven by assimilated meteorology from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). In places and times where there are a dense number of soundings, the observations dominate the predicted mixing ratios, while the model is used to fill in locations with fewer soundings, e.g., high latitudes and the Amazon. Blending the satellite observations with model predictions has at least two notable benefits. First, it provides a bridge for evaluating the satellite retrievals and their uncertainties against a heterogeneous collection of observations including those from surface sites, towers, aircraft, and soundings from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). Extensive evaluations of the L3 reanalysis clearly demonstrate both the strength and the deficiency of the satellite retrievals. Second, it is possible to estimate variables from the reanalysis without introducing bias due to spatiotemporal variability in sounding coverage. For example, the assimilated product provides robust estimates of the monthly CO2 global growth rate. These monthly growth rate estimates show significant differences from estimates based on in situ observations, which have sparse coverage, and those based on model surface fluxes, which imperfectly represent key processes. This presentation discusses the implications of this finding as well as ongoing strategies to extract more information from the satellite retrievals in future L3 reanalyses.

A Genesis Potential Index for Tropical Cyclone by Using Oceanic Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, L.; Zhang, M.; Chen, D.; Wang, C.

2015-12-01

This study attempts to create a tropical cyclone (TC) genesis potential index (GPI) by considering oceanic parameters and necessary atmospheric parameters at the sea surface. Based on the general understanding of oceanic impacts on the TC genesis, many candidate factors are evaluated and discriminated, resulting in a new GPI index called GPIocean. GPIocean includes (1) the absolute vorticity at 1000 hPa, (2) the net sea surface longwave radiation, (3) the mean ocean temperature in the upper mixed layer, and (4) the depth of the 26°C isotherm. GPIocean is comparable to the existing GPIs in representing the TC genesis over the western North Pacific on climatological, interannual, and seasonal time scales. In the context of climate change, this new index is expected to be useful for evaluating the oceanic influences on the TC genesis, using ocean reanalysis products and/or climate model outputs.

Estimating trends in atmospheric water vapor and temperature time series over Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alshawaf, Fadwa; Balidakis, Kyriakos; Dick, Galina; Heise, Stefan; Wickert, Jens

2017-08-01

Ground-based GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) has efficiently been used since the 1990s as a meteorological observing system. Recently scientists have used GNSS time series of precipitable water vapor (PWV) for climate research. In this work, we compare the temporal trends estimated from GNSS time series with those estimated from European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data and meteorological measurements. We aim to evaluate climate evolution in Germany by monitoring different atmospheric variables such as temperature and PWV. PWV time series were obtained by three methods: (1) estimated from ground-based GNSS observations using the method of precise point positioning, (2) inferred from ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and (3) determined based on daily in situ measurements of temperature and relative humidity. The other relevant atmospheric parameters are available from surface measurements of meteorological stations or derived from ERA-Interim. The trends are estimated using two methods: the first applies least squares to deseasonalized time series and the second uses the Theil-Sen estimator. The trends estimated at 113 GNSS sites, with 10 to 19 years temporal coverage, vary between -1.5 and 2.3 mm decade-1 with standard deviations below 0.25 mm decade-1. These results were validated by estimating the trends from ERA-Interim data over the same time windows, which show similar values. These values of the trend depend on the length and the variations of the time series. Therefore, to give a mean value of the PWV trend over Germany, we estimated the trends using ERA-Interim spanning from 1991 to 2016 (26 years) at 227 synoptic stations over Germany. The ERA-Interim data show positive PWV trends of 0.33 ± 0.06 mm decade-1 with standard errors below 0.03 mm decade-1. The increment in PWV varies between 4.5 and 6.5 % per degree Celsius rise in temperature, which is comparable to the theoretical rate of the Clausius-Clapeyron equation.

Stratospheric Intrusion-Influenced Ozone Air Quality Exceedences Investigated in MERRA-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knowland, K. Emma; Ott, Lesley; Duncan, Bryan; Wargan, Krzysztof

2017-01-01

Ozone near the surface is harmful to human health and is a result of the photochemical reaction with both man-made and natural precursor pollutant sources. Therefore, in order to reduce near surface ozone concentrations, communities must reduce anthropogenic pollution sources. However, the injection of stratospheric ozone into the troposphere, known as a stratospheric intrusion, can also lead to concentrations of ground-level ozone exceeding air quality standards. Stratospheric intrusions are dynamical atmospheric features, however, these intrusions have been misrepresented in models and reanalyses until recently, as the features of a stratospheric intrusion are best identified in horizontal resolutions of approximately 50 km or smaller. NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis is a publicly-available high-resolution dataset (50 km) with assimilated ozone that characterizes stratospheric ozone on the same spatiotemporal resolution as the meteorology. We show that stratospheric intrusions that impact surface air quality are well represented in the MERRA-2 reanalysis. This is demonstrated through a case study analysis of stratospheric intrusion events which were identified by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to impact surface ozone air quality in spring 2012 in Colorado. The stratospheric intrusions are identified in MERRA-2 by the folding of the dynamical tropopause under the jet stream and subsequent isentropic descent of dry, O3-rich stratospheric air towards the surface where ozone air quality exceedences were observed. The MERRA-2 reanalysis can support air quality agencies for more rapid identification of the impact of stratospheric air on ground-level ozone.

The New Horizons Radio Science Experiment: Expected Performance in Measurements of Pluto's Atmospheric Structure, Surface Pressure, and Surface Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinson, D. P.; Linscott, I.; Woods, W. W.; Tyler, G. L.; Bird, M. K.; Paetzold, M.; Strobel, D. F.

2014-12-01

The New Horizons (NH) payload includes a Radio Science Experiment (REX) for investigating key characteristics of Pluto and Charon during the upcoming flyby in July 2015. REX flight equipment augments the NH radio transceiver used for spacecraft communications and tracking. The REX hardware implementation requires 1.6 W and 160 g. This presentation will focus on the final design and the predicted performance of two high-priority observations. First, REX will receive signals from a pair of 70-m antennas on Earth - each transmitting 20 kW at 4.2-cm wavelength - during a diametric radio occultation by Pluto. The data recorded by REX will reveal the surface pressure, the temperature structure of the lower atmosphere, and the surface radius. Second, REX will measure the thermal emission from Pluto at 4.2-cm wavelength during two linear scans across the disk at close range when both the dayside and the nightside are visible, allowing the surface temperature and its spatial variations to be determined. Both scans extend from limb to limb with a resolution of about 10 pixels; one bisects Pluto whereas the second crosses the winter pole. We will illustrate the capabilities of REX by reviewing the method of analysis and the precision achieved in a lunar occultation observed by New Horizons in May 2011. Re-analysis of radio occultation measurements by Voyager 2 at Triton is also under way. More generally, REX objectives include a radio occultation search for Pluto's ionosphere; examination of Charon through both radio occultation and radiometry; a search for a radar echo from Pluto's surface; and improved knowledge of the Pluto system mass and the Pluto-Charon mass ratio from a combination of two-way and one-way Doppler frequency measurements.

Potential utility of three-dimensional temperature and salinity fields estimated from satellite altimetry and Argo data for improving mesoscale reproducibility in regional ocean modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanki, R.; Uchiyama, Y.; Miyazaki, D.; Takano, A.; Miyazawa, Y.; Yamazaki, H.

2014-12-01

Mesoscale oceanic structure and variability are required to be reproduced as accurately as possible in realistic regional ocean modeling. Uchiyama et al. (2012) demonstrated with a submesoscale eddy-resolving JCOPE2-ROMS downscaling oceanic modeling system that the mesoscale reproducibility of the Kuroshio meandering along Japan is significantly improved by introducing a simple restoration to data which we call "TS nudging" (a.k.a. robust diagnosis) where the prognostic temperature and salinity fields are weakly nudged four-dimensionally towards the assimilative JCOPE2 reanalysis (Miyazawa et al., 2009). However, there is not always a reliable reanalysis for oceanic downscaling in an arbitrary region and at an arbitrary time, and therefore alternative dataset should be prepared. Takano et al. (2009) proposed an empirical method to estimate mesoscale 3-D thermal structure from the near real-time AVISO altimetry data along with the ARGO float data based on the two-layer model of Goni et al. (1996). In the present study, we consider the TS data derived from this method as a candidate. We thus conduct a synoptic forward modeling of the Kuroshio using the JCOPE2-ROMS downscaling system to explore potential utility of this empirical TS dataset (hereinafter TUM-TS) by carrying out two runs with the T-S nudging towards 1) the JCOPE2-TS and 2) TUM-TS fields.　An example of the comparison between the two ROMS test runs is shown in the attached figure showing the annually averaged surface EKE. Both of TUM-TS and JCOPE2-TS are found to help reproducing the mesoscale variance of the Koroshio and its extension as well as its mean paths, surface KE and EKE reasonably well. Therefore, the AVISO-ARGO derived empirical 3-D TS estimation is potentially exploitable for the dataset to conduct the T-S nudging to reproduce mesoscale oceanic structure.

Trends and variability in the Hadley circulation over the Last Millennium from the proxy record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horlick, K. A.; Noone, D.; Hakim, G. J.; Tardif, R.; Anderson, D. M.; Perkins, W. A.; Erb, M. P.; Steig, E. J.

2017-12-01

The Hadley circulation (HC) is the dominant atmospheric overturning circulation controlling variability in precipitation distribution in the tropics and subtropics, affecting agricultural production and water resource allocation, among other human civilizational dependencies. A lack of pre-instrumental data-model synthesis has been cited as the barrier to diagnostic analyses of the variability in width, position, and intensity of the HC and its response to anthropogenic forcing. We analyze the HC, and its rising limb associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), over the past 1000 years using the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) (Hakim et al. 2016). The LMR systematically blends the dynamical constraints of climate models with a proxy network of coral, tree ring, and ice core records. It allows for a spatiotemporal analysis with robust uncertainty measures. A three dimensional analysis of LMR wind fields shows an centennial-scale circulatory trend over the last 200 years resembling that which might be expected from an ENSO and PDO-like structure. An observed aridification of both the central equatorial Pacific and the southwest United States, a strengthening of the east-west sea surface temperature and sea level pressure gradient in the equatorial Pacific, and a strengthening of the Walker overturning circulation suggest a more "La Niña-like" mean state. This is compared to our statistical description of the centennial-scale mean circulation and variability of the previous millennia. Similarly, precipitation and relative humidity trends suggest expansion and asymmetric meridional movement of the Hadley circulation as a result of asymmetric shifts in mean ITCZ position and intensity. These observations are then compared to free running model simulations, other instrumental reanalysis products, and late-Holocene aerosol, solar, and greenhouse forcings. This LMR reconstruction improves upon previous work by enabling a proxy-consistent, quantitative analysis of Hadley circulation intensity, structure, and variability rather than relying on simpler empirical reconstructions of variables like surface temperature alone.

Variability of cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe since 1871

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welker, C.; Martius, O.

2012-04-01

The scarce availability of long-term atmospheric data series has so far limited the analysis of low-frequency activity and intensity changes of cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe. A novel reanalysis product, the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR; Compo et al., 2011), spanning 1871 to present, offers potentially a very valuable resource for the analysis of the decadal-scale variability of cyclones over the North Atlantic sector and Europe. In the 20CR, only observations of synoptic surface pressure were assimilated. Monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice distributions served as boundary conditions. An Ensemble Kalman Filter assimilation technique was applied. "First guess" fields were obtained from an ensemble (with 56 members) of short-range numerical weather prediction forecasts. We apply the cyclone identification algorithm of Wernli and Schwierz (2006) to this data set, i.e. to each individual ensemble member. This enables us to give an uncertainty estimation of our findings. We find that 20CR shows a temporally relatively homogeneous representation of cyclone activity over Europe and great parts of the North Atlantic. Pronounced decadal-scale variability is found both in the frequency and intensity of cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe. The low-frequency variability is consistently represented in all ensemble members. Our analyses indicate that in the past approximately 140 years the variability of cyclone activity and intensity over the North Atlantic and Europe can principally be associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and secondary with a pattern similar to the East Atlantic pattern. Regionally however, the correlation between cyclone activity and these dominant modes of variability changes over time. Compo, G. P., J. S. Whitaker, P. D. Sardeshmukh, N. Matsui, R. J. Allan, X. Yin, B. E. Gleason, R. S. Vose, G. Rutledge, P. Bessemoulin, S. Brönnimann, M. Brunet, R. I. Crouthamel, A. N. Grant, P. Y. Groisman, P. D. Jones, M. C. Kruk, A. C. Kruger, G. J. Marshall, M. Maugeri, H. Y. Mok, Ø. Nordli, T. F. Ross, R. M. Trigo, X. L. Wang, S. D. Woodruff, and S. J. Worley, 2011: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis project. Quarterly J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1-28. Wernli, H. and C. Schwierz, 2006: Surface cyclones in the ERA-40 dataset (1958-2001). Part I: Novel identification method and global climatology. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2486-2507.

How well do we know the global water cycle? - Intercomparison and Performance Analysis of the Hydrological Cycle in Three State-of-the-Art Reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunstmann, H.; Lorenz, C.

2012-12-01

The three state-of-the-art global atmospheric reanalysis models—namely, ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA; NASA), and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR; NCEP)—are analyzed and compared with independent observations (GPCC; GPCP; CRU; CPC; DEL; HOAPS) in the period between 1989 and 2006. Comparison of precipitation and temperature estimates from the three models with gridded observations reveals large differences between the reanalyses and also of the observation datasets. A major source of uncertainty in the observations is the spatial distribution and change of the number of gauges over time. In South America for example, active measuring stations were reduced from 4267 to 390. The quality of precipitation estimates from the reanalyses strongly depends on the geographic location, as there are significant differences especially in tropical regions. The closure of the water cycle in the three reanalyses is analyzed by estimating long-term mean values for precipitation, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, and moisture flux divergence. Major shortcomings in the moisture budgets of the datasets are mainly due to inconsistencies of the net precipitation minus evaporation and evapotranspiration, respectively, (P-E) estimates over the oceans and landmasses. This imbalance largely originates from the assimilation of radiance sounding data from the NOAA-15 satellite, which results in an unrealistic increase of oceanic P-E in the MERRA and CFSR budgets. Overall, ERA-Interim shows both a comparatively reasonable closure of the terrestrial and atmospheric water balance and a reasonable agreement with the observation datasets. The limited performance of the three state-of-the-art reanalyses in reproducing the hydrological cycle, however, puts the use of these models for climate trend analyses and long-term water budget studies into question.

Evaluation of uncertainties in the CRCM-simulated North American climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Elía, Ramón; Caya, Daniel; Côté, Hélène; Frigon, Anne; Biner, Sébastien; Giguère, Michel; Paquin, Dominique; Harvey, Richard; Plummer, David

2008-02-01

This work is a first step in the analysis of uncertainty sources in the RCM-simulated climate over North America. Three main sets of sensitivity studies were carried out: the first estimates the magnitude of internal variability, which is needed to evaluate the significance of changes in the simulated climate induced by any model modification. The second is devoted to the role of CRCM configuration as a source of uncertainty, in particular the sensitivity to nesting technique, domain size, and driving reanalysis. The third study aims to assess the relative importance of the previously estimated sensitivities by performing two additional sensitivity experiments: one, in which the reanalysis driving data is replaced by data generated by the second generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2), and another, in which a different CRCM version is used. Results show that the internal variability, triggered by differences in initial conditions, is much smaller than the sensitivity to any other source. Results also show that levels of uncertainty originating from liberty of choices in the definition of configuration parameters are comparable among themselves and are smaller than those due to the choice of CGCM or CRCM version used. These results suggest that uncertainty originated by the CRCM configuration latitude (freedom of choice among domain sizes, nesting techniques and reanalysis dataset), although important, does not seem to be a major obstacle to climate downscaling. Finally, with the aim of evaluating the combined effect of the different uncertainties, the ensemble spread is estimated for a subset of the analysed simulations. Results show that downscaled surface temperature is in general more uncertain in the northern regions, while precipitation is more uncertain in the central and eastern US.

Reanalysis of and attribution to near-surface ozone concentrations in Sweden during 1990-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersson, Camilla; Alpfjord, Heléne; Robertson, Lennart; Karlsson, Per Erik; Engardt, Magnuz

2017-11-01

We have constructed two data sets of hourly resolution reanalyzed near-surface ozone (O3) concentrations for the period 1990-2013 for Sweden. Long-term simulations from a chemistry-transport model (CTM) covering Europe were combined with hourly ozone concentration observations at Swedish and Norwegian background measurement sites using retrospective variational data analysis. The reanalysis data sets show improved performance over the original CTM when compared to independent observations. In one of the reanalyses, we included all available hourly near-surface O3 observations, whilst in the other we carefully selected time-consistent observations. Based on the second reanalysis we investigated statistical aspects of the distribution of the near-surface O3 concentrations, focusing on the linear trend over the 24-year period. We show that high near-surface O3 concentrations are decreasing and low O3 concentrations are increasing, which is reflected in observed improvement of many health and vegetation indices (apart from those with a low threshold). Using the CTM we also conducted sensitivity simulations to quantify the causes of the observed change, focusing on three factors: change in hemispheric background concentrations, meteorology and anthropogenic emissions. The rising low concentrations of near-surface O3 in Sweden are caused by a combination of all three factors, whilst the decrease in the highest O3 concentrations is caused by European O3 precursor emissions reductions. While studying the impact of anthropogenic emissions changes, we identified systematic differences in the modeled trend compared to observations that must be caused by incorrect trends in the utilized emissions inventory or by too high sensitivity of our model to emissions changes.

Use of MODIS Sensor Images Combined with Reanalysis Products to Retrieve Net Radiation in Amazonia

PubMed Central

de Oliveira, Gabriel; Brunsell, Nathaniel A.; Moraes, Elisabete C.; Bertani, Gabriel; dos Santos, Thiago V.; Shimabukuro, Yosio E.; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.

2016-01-01

In the Amazon region, the estimation of radiation fluxes through remote sensing techniques is hindered by the lack of ground measurements required as input in the models, as well as the difficulty to obtain cloud-free images. Here, we assess an approach to estimate net radiation (Rn) and its components under all-sky conditions for the Amazon region through the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) model utilizing only remote sensing and reanalysis data. The study period comprised six years, between January 2001–December 2006, and images from MODIS sensor aboard the Terra satellite and GLDAS reanalysis products were utilized. The estimates were evaluated with flux tower measurements within the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) project. Comparison between estimates obtained by the proposed method and observations from LBA towers showed errors between 12.5% and 16.4% and 11.3% and 15.9% for instantaneous and daily Rn, respectively. Our approach was adequate to minimize the problem related to strong cloudiness over the region and allowed to map consistently the spatial distribution of net radiation components in Amazonia. We conclude that the integration of reanalysis products and satellite data, eliminating the need for surface measurements as input model, was a useful proposition for the spatialization of the radiation fluxes in the Amazon region, which may serve as input information needed by algorithms that aim to determine evapotranspiration, the most important component of the Amazon hydrological balance. PMID:27347957

Use of MODIS Sensor Images Combined with Reanalysis Products to Retrieve Net Radiation in Amazonia.

PubMed

de Oliveira, Gabriel; Brunsell, Nathaniel A; Moraes, Elisabete C; Bertani, Gabriel; Dos Santos, Thiago V; Shimabukuro, Yosio E; Aragão, Luiz E O C

2016-06-24

In the Amazon region, the estimation of radiation fluxes through remote sensing techniques is hindered by the lack of ground measurements required as input in the models, as well as the difficulty to obtain cloud-free images. Here, we assess an approach to estimate net radiation (Rn) and its components under all-sky conditions for the Amazon region through the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) model utilizing only remote sensing and reanalysis data. The study period comprised six years, between January 2001-December 2006, and images from MODIS sensor aboard the Terra satellite and GLDAS reanalysis products were utilized. The estimates were evaluated with flux tower measurements within the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) project. Comparison between estimates obtained by the proposed method and observations from LBA towers showed errors between 12.5% and 16.4% and 11.3% and 15.9% for instantaneous and daily Rn, respectively. Our approach was adequate to minimize the problem related to strong cloudiness over the region and allowed to map consistently the spatial distribution of net radiation components in Amazonia. We conclude that the integration of reanalysis products and satellite data, eliminating the need for surface measurements as input model, was a useful proposition for the spatialization of the radiation fluxes in the Amazon region, which may serve as input information needed by algorithms that aim to determine evapotranspiration, the most important component of the Amazon hydrological balance.

Investigating the potential impacts of local climate change on the meltwater supply of a small snow-fed mountain river system: A case study of the Animas River, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, C. A.

2010-12-01

The western US receives up to 80% of its annual streamflow from snowmelt fed river systems during the mid-to-late spring season. Changes in winter and spring air temperature and precipitation patterns have, however, begun to alter this sensitive hydroclimatological process, both in terms of the timing and magnitude of snowmelt events and the responding streamflow. Monitoring and planning for these changes in the future may well prove crucial for local water resource planners who traditionally rely on historical trends or means for water resource planning. Local-level water resource planners also often do not have the data or tools at the right resolution available to them for the same planning purposes. This goal of this research was to identify how changes in the local winter-spring climate may alter the hydrological response of a typical small mountain snowmelt fed river system, the Animas River in SW Colorado. To achieve this, a statistical downscaling technique was applied to increase the resolution of, and build a linear relationship between, historical upper atmospheric reanalysis data to surface level mean air temperature and precipitation for several climate stations located across the basin for 1950-2007. The same technique was then used to increase the resolution of two GCM scenarios from the NCAR CCSM3 model SRES-AR4 data runs (a 'business as usual’ or A1B scenario, and an increase in global greenhouse gas emissions or A2 scenario) using the same relationships between the historical upper atmospheric reanalysis data and the surface station climate data. Snowmelt streamflow magnitude and timing were then projected to 2099 based on their historical relationship to mean monthly winter and spring air temperature and precipitation before being compared to the historical averages. Results indicated a shift in the timing of the snowmelt streamflow to earlier in the spring, and a reduction in the magnitude of peak spring streamflow following increasing spring temperatures and decreasing winter precipitation across the basin. These techniques and methods may provide a starting framework for local-level water resource planners to monitor and prepare for any future changes to basinwide hydroclimatology.

Downscaling with a nested regional climate model in near-surface fields over the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jiali; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R.

2014-07-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for dynamic downscaling of 2.5-degree National Centers for Environmental Prediction-U.S. Department of Energy Reanalysis II (NCEP-R2) data for 1980-2010 at 12 km resolution over most of North America. The model's performance for surface air temperature and precipitation is evaluated by comparison with high-resolution observational data sets. The model's ability to add value is investigated by comparison with NCEP-R2 data and a 50 km regional climate simulation. The causes for major model bias are studied through additional sensitivity experiments with various model setup/integration approaches and physics representations. The WRF captures the main features of the spatial patterns and annual cycles of air temperature and precipitation over most of the contiguous United States. However, simulated air temperatures over the south central region and precipitation over the Great Plains and the Southwest have significant biases. Allowing longer spin-up time, reducing the nudging strength, or replacing the WRF Single-Moment six-class microphysics with Morrison microphysics reduces the bias over some subregions. However, replacing the Grell-Devenyi cumulus parameterization with Kain-Fritsch shows no improvement. The 12 km simulation does add value above the NCEP-R2 data and the 50 km simulation over mountainous and coastal zones.

Numerical modeling of thermal regime in inland water bodies with field measurement data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gladskikh, D.; Sergeev, D.; Baydakov, G.; Soustova, I.; Troitskaya, Yu.

2018-01-01

Modification of the program complex LAKE, which is intended to compute the thermal regimes of inland water bodies, and the results of its validation in accordance with the parameters of lake part of Gorky water reservoir are reviewed in the research. The modification caused changing the procedure of input temperature profile assignment and parameterization of surface stress on air-water boundary in accordance with the consideration of wind influence on mixing process. Also the innovation consists in combined methods of gathering meteorological parameters from files of global meteorological reanalysis and data of hydrometeorological station. Temperature profiles carried out with CTD-probe during expeditions in the period 2014-2017 were used for validation of the model. The comparison between the real data and the numerical results and its assessment based on time and temperature dependences in control points, correspondence of the forms of the profiles and standard deviation for all performed realizations are provided. It is demonstrated that the model reproduces the results of field measurement data for all observed conditions and seasons. The numerical results for the regimes with strong mixing are in the best quantitative and qualitative agreement with the real profiles. The accuracy of the forecast for the ones with strong stratification near the surface is lower but all specificities of the forms are correctly reproduced.

Estimation of Chinese surface NO2 concentrations combining satellite data and Land Use Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anand, J.; Monks, P.

2016-12-01

Monitoring surface-level air quality is often limited by in-situ instrument placement and issues arising from harmonisation over long timescales. Satellite instruments can offer a synoptic view of regional pollution sources, but in many cases only a total or tropospheric column can be measured. In this work a new technique of estimating surface NO2 combining both satellite and in-situ data is presented, in which a Land Use Regression (LUR) model is used to create high resolution pollution maps based on known predictor variables such as population density, road networks, and land cover. By employing a mixed effects approach, it is possible to take advantage of the spatiotemporal variability in the satellite-derived column densities to account for daily and regional variations in surface NO2 caused by factors such as temperature, elevation, and wind advection. In this work, surface NO2 maps are modelled over the North China Plain and Pearl River Delta during high-pollution episodes by combining in-situ measurements and tropospheric columns from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). The modelled concentrations show good agreement with in-situ data and surface NO2 concentrations derived from the MACC-II global reanalysis.

Response Surface Methodology Using a Fullest Balanced Model: A Re-Analysis of a Dataset in the Korean Journal for Food Science of Animal Resources.

PubMed

Rheem, Sungsue; Rheem, Insoo; Oh, Sejong

2017-01-01

Response surface methodology (RSM) is a useful set of statistical techniques for modeling and optimizing responses in research studies of food science. In the analysis of response surface data, a second-order polynomial regression model is usually used. However, sometimes we encounter situations where the fit of the second-order model is poor. If the model fitted to the data has a poor fit including a lack of fit, the modeling and optimization results might not be accurate. In such a case, using a fullest balanced model, which has no lack of fit, can fix such problem, enhancing the accuracy of the response surface modeling and optimization. This article presents how to develop and use such a model for the better modeling and optimizing of the response through an illustrative re-analysis of a dataset in Park et al. (2014) published in the Korean Journal for Food Science of Animal Resources .

Observed contrast changes in snow cover phenology in northern middle and high latitudes from 2001–2014

PubMed Central

Chen, Xiaona; Liang, Shunlin; Cao, Yunfeng; He, Tao; Wang, Dongdong

2015-01-01

Quantifying and attributing the phenological changes in snow cover are essential for meteorological, hydrological, ecological, and societal implications. However, snow cover phenology changes have not been well documented. Evidence from multiple satellite and reanalysis data from 2001 to 2014 points out that the snow end date (De) advanced by 5.11 (±2.20) days in northern high latitudes (52–75°N) and was delayed by 3.28 (±2.59) days in northern mid-latitudes (32–52°N) at the 90% confidence level. Dominated by changes in De, snow duration days (Dd) was shorter in duration by 5.57 (±2.55) days in high latitudes and longer by 9.74 (±2.58) days in mid-latitudes. Changes in De during the spring season were consistent with the spatiotemporal pattern of land surface albedo change. Decreased land surface temperature combined with increased precipitation in mid-latitudes and significantly increased land surface temperature in high latitudes, impacted by recent Pacific surface cooling, Arctic amplification and strengthening westerlies, result in contrasting changes in the Northern Hemisphere snow cover phenology. Changes in the snow cover phenology led to contrasting anomalies of snow radiative forcing, which is dominated by De and accounts for 51% of the total shortwave flux anomalies at the top of the atmosphere. PMID:26581632

Changes in hydro-meteorological conditions over tropical West Africa (1980-2015) and links to global climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ndehedehe, Christopher E.; Awange, Joseph L.; Agutu, Nathan O.; Okwuashi, Onuwa

2018-03-01

The role of global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in modulating rainfall in the African region has been widely studied and is now less debated. However, their impacts and links to terrestrial water storage (TWS) in general, have not been studied. This study presents the pioneer results of canonical correlation analysis (CCA) of TWS derived from both global reanalysis data (1980-2015) and GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) (2002-2014) with SST fields. The main issues discussed include, (i) oceanic hot spots that impact on TWS over tropical West Africa (TWA) based on CCA, (ii) long term changes in model and global reanalysis data (soil moisture, TWS, and groundwater) and the influence of climate variability on these hydrological indicators, and (iii) the hydrological characteristics of the Equatorial region of Africa (i.e., the Congo basin) based on GRACE-derived TWS, river discharge, and precipitation. Results of the CCA diagnostics show that El-Niño Southern Oscillation related equatorial Pacific SST fluctuations is a major index of climate variability identified in the main portion of the CCA procedure that indicates a significant association with long term TWS reanalysis data over TWA (r = 0.50, ρ < 0.05). Based on Mann-Kendall's statistics, the study found fairly large long term declines (ρ < 0.05) in TWS and soil moisture (1982 - 2015), mostly over the Congo basin, which coincided with warming of the land surface and the surrounding oceans. Meanwhile, some parts of the Sahel show significant wetting (rainfall, soil moisture, groundwater, and TWS) trends during the same period (1982-2015) and aligns with the ongoing narratives of rainfall recovery in the region. Results of singular spectral analysis and regression confirm that multi-annual changes in the Congo River discharge explained a considerable proportion of variability in GRACE-hydrological signal over the Congo basin (r = 0.86 and R2 = 0.70, ρ < 0.05). Finally, leading orthogonal modes of MERRA and GRACE-TWS over TWA show significant association with global SST anomalies.

Comparison of surface freshwater fluxes from different climate forecasts produced through different ensemble generation schemes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romanova, Vanya; Hense, Andreas; Wahl, Sabrina; Brune, Sebastian; Baehr, Johanna

2016-04-01

The decadal variability and its predictability of the surface net freshwater fluxes is compared in a set of retrospective predictions, all using the same model setup, and only differing in the implemented ocean initialisation method and ensemble generation method. The basic aim is to deduce the differences between the initialization/ensemble generation methods in view of the uncertainty of the verifying observational data sets. The analysis will give an approximation of the uncertainties of the net freshwater fluxes, which up to now appear to be one of the most uncertain products in observational data and model outputs. All ensemble generation methods are implemented into the MPI-ESM earth system model in the framework of the ongoing MiKlip project (www.fona-miklip.de). Hindcast experiments are initialised annually between 2000-2004, and from each start year 10 ensemble members are initialized for 5 years each. Four different ensemble generation methods are compared: (i) a method based on the Anomaly Transform method (Romanova and Hense, 2015) in which the initial oceanic perturbations represent orthogonal and balanced anomaly structures in space and time and between the variables taken from a control run, (ii) one-day-lagged ocean states from the MPI-ESM-LR baseline system (iii) one-day-lagged of ocean and atmospheric states with preceding full-field nudging to re-analysis in both the atmospheric and the oceanic component of the system - the baseline one MPI-ESM-LR system, (iv) an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) implemented into oceanic part of MPI-ESM (Brune et al. 2015), assimilating monthly subsurface oceanic temperature and salinity (EN3) using the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF). The hindcasts are evaluated probabilistically using fresh water flux data sets from four different reanalysis data sets: MERRA, NCEP-R1, GFDL ocean reanalysis and GECCO2. The assessments show no clear differences in the evaluations scores on regional scales. However, on the global scale the physically motivated methods (i) and (iv) provide probabilistic hindcasts with a consistently higher reliability than the lagged initialization methods (ii)/(iii) despite the large uncertainties in the verifying observations and in the simulations.

Development of CDMS-II Surface Event Rejection Techniques and Their Extensions to Lower Energy Thresholds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hofer, Thomas James

2014-12-01

The CDMS-II phase of the Cryogenic Dark Matter Search, a dark matter direct-detection experiment, was operated at the Soudan Underground Laboratory from 2003 to 2008. The full payload consisted of 30 ZIP detectors, totaling approximately 1.1 kg of Si and 4.8 kg of Ge, operated at temperatures of 50 mK. The ZIP detectors read out both ionization and phonon pulses from scatters within the crystals; channel segmentation and analysis of pulse timing parameters allowed e ective ducialization of the crystal volumes and background rejection su cient to set world-leading limits at the times of their publications. A full re-analysis ofmore » the CDMS-II data was motivated by an improvement in the event reconstruction algorithms which improved the resolution of ionization energy and timing information. The Ge data were re-analyzed using three distinct background-rejection techniques; the Si data from runs 125 - 128 were analyzed for the rst time using the most successful of the techniques from the Ge re-analysis. The results of these analyses prompted a novel \\mid-threshold" analysis, wherein energy thresholds were lowered but background rejection using phonon timing information was still maintained. This technique proved to have signi cant discrimination power, maintaining adequate signal acceptance and minimizing background leakage. The primary background for CDMS-II analyses comes from surface events, whose poor ionization collection make them di cult to distinguish from true nuclear recoil events. The novel detector technology of SuperCDMS, the successor to CDMS-II, uses interleaved electrodes to achieve full ionization collection for events occurring at the top and bottom detector surfaces. This, along with dual-sided ionization and phonon instrumentation, allows for excellent ducialization and relegates the surface-event rejection techniques of CDMS-II to a secondary level of background discrimination. Current and future SuperCDMS results hold great promise for mid- to low-mass WIMP-search results.« less

Connection between the Silk Road Pattern in July and the following January temperature over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Shengping; Liu, Yang; Wang, Huijun

2017-04-01

This study investigates a cross-seasonal influence of the Silk Road Pattern (SRP) in July and discusses the related mechanism. Both the reanalysis and observational datasets indicate that the July SRP is closely related to the following January temperature over East Asia during 1958/59-2001/02. Linear regression results reveal that, following a higher-than-normal SRP index in July, the Siberian high, Aleutian low, Urals high, East Asian trough, and meridional shear of the East Asian jet intensify significantly in January. Such atmospheric circulation anomalies are favorable for northerly wind anomalies over East Asia, leading to more southward advection of cold air and causing a decrease in temperature. Further analysis indicates that the North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) might play a critical role in storing the anomalous signal of the July SRP. The significant SSTAs related to the July SRP weaken in October and November, re-emerge in December, and strengthen in the following January. Such an SSTA pattern in January can induce a surface anomalous cyclone over North Pacific and lead to dominant convergence anomalies over northwestern Pacific. Correspondingly, significant divergence anomalies appear, collocated in the upper-level troposphere in situ. Due to the advection of vorticity by divergent wind, which can be regarded as a wave source, a stationary Rossby wave originates from North Pacific and propagates eastward to East Asia, leading to temperature anomalies through its influence on the large-scale atmospheric circulation.

West Florida shelf circulation and temperature budget for the 1998 fall transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Ruoying; Weisberg, Robert H.

2003-05-01

Mid-latitude continental shelves undergo a fall transition as the net heat flux changes from warming to cooling. Using in situ data and a numerical model we investigate the circulation on the west Florida shelf (WFS) for the fall transition of 1998. The model is a regional adaptation of the primitive equation, Princeton Ocean Model forced by NCEP reanalysis wind, air pressure, and heat flux fields, plus river inflows. After comparison with observations the model is used to draw inferences on the seasonal and synoptic scale features of the shelf circulation. By running twin experiments, one without and the other with an idealized Loop Current (LC), we explore the relative importance of local versus deep-ocean forcing. We find that local forcing largely controls the inner-shelf circulation, including changes from the Florida Panhandle in the north to regions farther south. The effects of the LC in fall 1998 are to reinforce the mid-shelf currents and to increase the across-shelf transports in the bottom Ekman layer, thereby accentuating the shoreward transport of cold, nutrient rich water of deep-ocean origin. A three-dimensional analysis of the temperature budget reveals that surface heat flux largely controls both the seasonal and synoptic scale temperature variations. Surface cooling leads to convective mixing that rapidly alters temperature gradients. One interesting consequence is that upwelling can result in near-shore warming as warmer offshore waters are advected landward. The temperature balances on the shelf are complex and fully three-dimensional.

Investigation of the UK37' vs. SST relationship for Atlantic Ocean suspended particulate alkenones: An alternative regression model and discussion of possible sampling bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gould, Jessica; Kienast, Markus; Dowd, Michael

2017-05-01

Alkenone unsaturation, expressed as the UK37' index, is closely related to growth temperature of prymnesiophytes, thus providing a reliable proxy to infer past sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Here we address two lingering uncertainties related to this SST proxy. First, calibration models developed for core-top sediments and those developed for surface suspended particulates organic material (SPOM) show systematic offsets, raising concerns regarding the transfer of the primary signal into the sedimentary record. Second, questions remain regarding changes in slope of the UK37' vs. growth temperature relationship at the temperature extremes. Based on (re)analysis of 31 new and 394 previously published SPOM UK37' data from the Atlantic Ocean, a new regression model to relate UK37' to SST is introduced; the Richards curve (Richards, 1959). This non-linear regression model provides a robust calibration of the UK37' vs. SST relationship for Atlantic SPOM samples and uniquely accounts for both the fact that the UK37' index is a proportion, and so must lie between 0 and 1, as well as for the observed reduction in slope at the warm and cold ends of the temperature range. As with prior fits of SPOM UK37' vs. SST, the Richards model is offset from traditional regression models of sedimentary UK37' vs. SST. We posit that (some of) this offset can be attributed to the seasonally and depth biased sampling of SPOM material.

Deriving mass balance and calving variations from reanalysis data and sparse observations, Glaciar San Rafael, northern Patagonia, 1950-2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koppes, M.; Conway, H.; Rasmussen, L. A.; Chernos, M.

2011-09-01

Mass balance variations of Glaciar San Rafael, the northernmost tidewater glacier in the Southern Hemisphere, are reconstructed over the period 1950-2005 using NCEP-NCAR reanalysis climate data together with sparse, local historical observations of air temperature, precipitation, accumulation, ablation, thinning, calving, and glacier retreat. The combined observations over the past 50 yr indicate that Glaciar San Rafael has thinned and retreated since 1959, with a total mass loss of ~22 km3 of ice eq. Over that period, except for a short period of cooling from 1998-2003, the climate has become progressively warmer and drier, which has resulted primarily in pervasive thinning of the glacier surface and a decrease in calving rates, with only minor acceleration in retreat of the terminus. A comparison of calving fluxes derived from the mass balance variations and from theoretical calving and sliding laws suggests that calving rates are inversely correlated with retreat rates, and that terminus geometry is more important than balance fluxes to the terminus in driving calving dynamics. For Glaciar San Rafael, regional climate warming has not yet resulted in the significant changes in glacier length seen in other calving glaciers in the region, emphasizing the complex dynamics between climate inputs, topographic constraints and glacier response in calving glacier systems.

A Prototype Two-Decade Fully-Coupled Fine-Resolution CCSM Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McClean, Julie L.; Bader, David C; Bryan, Frank O.

2011-01-01

A fully coupled global simulation using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) was configured using grid resolutions of 0.1{sup o} for the ocean and sea-ice, and 0.25{sup o} for the atmosphere and land, and was run under present-day greenhouse gas conditions for 20 years. It represents one of the first efforts to simulate the planetary system at such high horizontal resolution. The climatology of the circulation of the atmosphere and the upper ocean were compared with observational data and reanalysis products to identify persistent mean climate biases. Intensified and contracted polar vortices, and too cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) inmore » the subpolar and mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere were the dominant biases produced by the model. Intense category 4 cyclones formed spontaneously in the tropical North Pacific. A case study of the ocean response to one such event shows the realistic formation of a cold SST wake, mixed layer deepening, and warming below the mixed layer. Too many tropical cyclones formed in the North Pacific however, due to too high SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific. In the North Atlantic anomalously low SSTs lead to a dearth of hurricanes. Agulhas eddy pathways are more realistic than in equivalent stand-alone ocean simulations forced with atmospheric reanalysis.« less

Variations in the temperature and circulation of the atmosphere during the 11-year cycle of solar activity derived from the ERA-Interim reanalysis data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, A. N.

2017-07-01

Using the data of the ERA-Interim reanalysis, we have obtained estimates of changes in temperature, the geopotential and its large-scale zonal harmonics, wind velocity, and potential vorticity in the troposphere and stratosphere of the Northern and Southern hemispheres during the 11-year solar cycle. The estimates have been obtained using the method of multiple linear regression. Specific features of response of the indicated atmospheric parameters to the solar cycle have been revealed in particular regions of the atmosphere for a whole year and depending on the season. The results of the analysis indicate the existence of a reliable statistical relationship of large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the troposphere and stratosphere with the 11-year solar cycle.

Potential vorticity regimes over East Asia during winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Wenyu; Chen, Ruyan; Wang, Bin; Wright, Jonathon S.; Yang, Zifan; Ma, Wenqian

2017-02-01

Nine potential vorticity (PV) regimes over East Asia are identified by applying a Self-Organizing Map and Hierarchical Ascendant Classification regime analysis to the daily PV reanalysis fields on the 300 K isentropic surface for December-March 1948-2014. According to the surface temperature anomalies over East Asia, these nine regimes are further classified into three classes, i.e., cold class (three regimes), warm class (four regimes), and neutral class (two regimes). The PV-based East Asian winter monsoon index (EAWMI) is used to study the relationship between PV distributions and the temperature anomalies. The magnitude of cold (warm) anomalies over the land areas of East Asia increases (decreases) quasi-linearly with the EAWMI. Regression analysis reveals that cold temperature anomalies preferentially occur when the EAWMI exceeds a threshold at ˜0.2 PVU (where 1 PVU ≡ 10-6 m2 K kg-1 s-1). PV inversion uncovers the mechanisms behind the relationships between the PV regimes and surface temperature anomalies and reveals that cold (warm) PV regimes are associated with significant warming (cooling) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. On average, cold regimes have longer durations than warm regimes. Interclass transition probabilities are much higher for paths from warm/neutral regimes to cold regimes than for paths from cold regimes to warm/neutral regimes. Besides, intraclass transitions are rare within the warm or neutral regimes. The PV regime analysis provides insight into the causes of severe cold spells over East Asia, with blocking circulation patterns identified as the primary factor in initiating and maintaining these cold spells.

REMO poor man's reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ries, H.; Moseley, C.; Haensler, A.

2012-04-01

Reanalyses depict the state of the atmosphere as a best fit in space and time of many atmospheric observations in a physically consistent way. By essentially solving the data assimilation problem in a very accurate manner, reanalysis results can be used as reference for model evaluation procedures and as forcing data sets for different model applications. However, the spatial resolution of the most common and accepted reanalysis data sets (e.g. JRA25, ERA-Interim) ranges from approximately 124 km to 80 km. This resolution is too coarse to simulate certain small scale processes often associated with extreme events. In addition, many models need higher resolved forcing data ( e.g. land-surface models, tools for identifying and assessing hydrological extremes). Therefore we downscaled the ERA-Interim reanalysis over the EURO-CORDEX-Domain for the time period 1989 to 2008 to a horizontal resolution of approximately 12 km. The downscaling is performed by nudging REMO-simulations to lower and lateral boundary conditions of the reanalysis, and by re-initializing the model every 24 hours ("REMO in forecast mode"). In this study the three following questions will be addressed: 1.) Does the REMO poor man's reanalysis meet the needs (accuracy, extreme value distribution) in validation and forcing? 2.) What lessons can be learned about the model used for downscaling? As REMO is used as a pure downscaling procedure, any systematic deviations from ERA-Interim result from poor process modelling but not from predictability limitations. 3.) How much small scale information generated by the downscaling model is lost with frequent initializations? A comparison to a simulation that is performed in climate mode will be presented.

Development of the NHM-LETKF regional reanalysis system assimilating conventional observations only

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukui, S.; Iwasaki, T.; Saito, K. K.; Seko, H.; Kunii, M.

2016-12-01

The information about long-term high-resolution atmospheric fields is very useful for studying meso-scale responses to climate change or analyzing extreme events. We are developing a NHM-LETKF (the local ensemble transform Kalman filter with the nonhydrostatic model of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)) regional reanalysis system assimilating only conventional observations that are available over about 60 years such as surface observations at observatories and upper air observations with radiosondes. The domain covers Japan and its surroundings. Before the long-term reanalysis is performed, an experiment using the system was conducted over August in 2014 in order to identify effectiveness and problems of the regional reanalysis system. In this study, we investigated the six-hour accumulated precipitations obtained by integration from the analysis fields. The reproduced precipitation was compared with the JMA's Radar/Rain-gauge Analyzed Precipitation data over Japan islands and the precipitation of JRA-55, which is used as lateral boundary conditions. The comparisons reveal the underestimation of the precipitation in the regional reanalysis. The underestimation is improved by extending the forecast time. In the regional reanalysis system, the analysis fields are derived using the ensemble mean fields, where the conflicting components among ensemble members are filtered out. Therefore, it is important to tune the inflation factor and lateral boundary perturbations not to smooth the analysis fields excessively and to consider more time to spin-up the fields. In the extended run, the underestimation still remains. This implies that the underestimation is attributed to the forecast model itself as well as the analysis scheme.

Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming.

PubMed

Graversen, Rune G; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Tjernström, Michael; Källén, Erland; Svensson, Gunilla

2008-01-03

Near-surface warming in the Arctic has been almost twice as large as the global average over recent decades-a phenomenon that is known as the 'Arctic amplification'. The underlying causes of this temperature amplification remain uncertain. The reduction in snow and ice cover that has occurred over recent decades may have played a role. Climate model experiments indicate that when global temperature rises, Arctic snow and ice cover retreats, causing excessive polar warming. Reduction of the snow and ice cover causes albedo changes, and increased refreezing of sea ice during the cold season and decreases in sea-ice thickness both increase heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere. Changes in oceanic and atmospheric circulation, as well as cloud cover, have also been proposed to cause Arctic temperature amplification. Here we examine the vertical structure of temperature change in the Arctic during the late twentieth century using reanalysis data. We find evidence for temperature amplification well above the surface. Snow and ice feedbacks cannot be the main cause of the warming aloft during the greater part of the year, because these feedbacks are expected to primarily affect temperatures in the lowermost part of the atmosphere, resulting in a pattern of warming that we only observe in spring. A significant proportion of the observed temperature amplification must therefore be explained by mechanisms that induce warming above the lowermost part of the atmosphere. We regress the Arctic temperature field on the atmospheric energy transport into the Arctic and find that, in the summer half-year, a significant proportion of the vertical structure of warming can be explained by changes in this variable. We conclude that changes in atmospheric heat transport may be an important cause of the recent Arctic temperature amplification.

Linking Teleconnections and Iowa's Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowe, S. T.; Villarini, G.; Lavers, D. A.; Scoccimarro, E.

2013-12-01

In recent years Iowa and the U.S. Midwest has experienced both extreme drought and flood periods. With a drought in 2012 bounded by major floods in 2011 and 2013, the rapid progression from one extreme to the next is on the forefront of the public mind. Given that Iowa is a major agricultural state, extreme weather conditions can have severe socioeconomic consequences. In this research we investigate the large-scale climate processes that occurred concurrently and before a range of dry/wet and cold/hot periods to improve process understanding of these events. It is essential to understand the large-scale climate processes, as these can then provide valuable insight toward the development of long-term climate forecasts for Iowa. In this study monthly and seasonal surface temperature and precipitation over 1950-2012 across Iowa are used. Precipitation and surface temperature data are retrieved from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) Climate Group at Oregon State University. The large-scale atmospheric fields are obtained from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) / National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Reanalysis 1 Project. Precipitation is stratified according to wet, normal, and dry conditions, while temperature according to hot, average, and cold periods. Different stratification criteria based on the precipitation and temperature distributions are examined. Mean sea-level pressure and sea-surface temperature composite maps for the northern hemisphere are then produced for the wet/dry conditions, and cold/hot conditions. Further analyses include correlation, anomalies, and assessment of large-scale planetary wave activity, shedding light on the differences and similarities among the opposite weather conditions. The results of this work will highlight regional weather patterns that are related to the climate over Iowa, providing valuable insight into the mechanisms controlling the occurrence of potentially extreme weather conditions over this area.

Insights into accumulation variability over the last 2000 years at James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massam, A.; Mulvaney, R.; McConnell, J.; Abram, N.; Arienzo, M. M.; Whitehouse, P. L.

2016-12-01

The James Ross Island ice core, drilled to 364 m on the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, preserves a climate record that spans beyond the Holocene period to the end of the last glacial maximum (LGM). Reanalysis of the ice core using high-resolution continuous flow analysis (CFA) highlighted errors in the identification of events of known age that had been used to constrain the earlier chronology. The new JRI2 chronology is annual layer counted to 300 years, with the remaining profile reconstructed using a new age-depth model that is tied to age horizons identified in the annual-layer counted WAIS Divide ice core record. An accurate age-depth profile requires reliable known-age horizons along the ice core profile. In addition, these allow us to determine a solution for the accumulation history and rate of compaction due to vertical strain. The accuracy of the known-age constraints used in JRI2 allows only a small uncertainty in the reconstruction of the most recent 2000 years of accumulation variability. Independently, the surface temperature profile has been estimated from the stable water isotope profile and calibrated to borehole temperature observations. We present the accumulation, vertical thinning and temperature history interpreted from the James Ross Island ice core for the most recent 2000 years. JRI2 reconstructions show accumulation variability on a decadal to centennial timescale up to 20% from the present-day mean annual accumulation rate of 0.63 m yr-1. Analysis of the accumulation profile for James Ross Island offers insight into the sensitivity of accumulation to a change in surface temperature, as well as the reliability of the assumed relationship between accumulation and surface temperature in climate reconstructions using stable water isotope proxies.

Assessment of upper tropospheric and stratospheric water vapor and ozone in reanalyses as part of S-RIP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Sean M.; Hegglin, Michaela I.; Fujiwara, Masatomo; Dragani, Rossana; Harada, Yayoi; Kobayashi, Chiaki; Long, Craig; Manney, Gloria L.; Nash, Eric R.; Potter, Gerald L.; Tegtmeier, Susann; Wang, Tao; Wargan, Krzysztof; Wright, Jonathon S.

2017-10-01

Reanalysis data sets are widely used to understand atmospheric processes and past variability, and are often used to stand in as "observations" for comparisons with climate model output. Because of the central role of water vapor (WV) and ozone (O3) in climate change, it is important to understand how accurately and consistently these species are represented in existing global reanalyses. In this paper, we present the results of WV and O3 intercomparisons that have been performed as part of the SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP). The comparisons cover a range of timescales and evaluate both inter-reanalysis and observation-reanalysis differences. We also provide a systematic documentation of the treatment of WV and O3 in current reanalyses to aid future research and guide the interpretation of differences amongst reanalysis fields.The assimilation of total column ozone (TCO) observations in newer reanalyses results in realistic representations of TCO in reanalyses except when data coverage is lacking, such as during polar night. The vertical distribution of ozone is also relatively well represented in the stratosphere in reanalyses, particularly given the relatively weak constraints on ozone vertical structure provided by most assimilated observations and the simplistic representations of ozone photochemical processes in most of the reanalysis forecast models. However, significant biases in the vertical distribution of ozone are found in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in all reanalyses.In contrast to O3, reanalysis estimates of stratospheric WV are not directly constrained by assimilated data. Observations of atmospheric humidity are typically used only in the troposphere, below a specified vertical level at or near the tropopause. The fidelity of reanalysis stratospheric WV products is therefore mainly dependent on the reanalyses' representation of the physical drivers that influence stratospheric WV, such as temperatures in the tropical tropopause layer, methane oxidation, and the stratospheric overturning circulation. The lack of assimilated observations and known deficiencies in the representation of stratospheric transport in reanalyses result in much poorer agreement amongst observational and reanalysis estimates of stratospheric WV. Hence, stratospheric WV products from the current generation of reanalyses should generally not be used in scientific studies.

Development and evaluation of an empirical diurnal sea surface temperature model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weihs, R. R.; Bourassa, M. A.

2013-12-01

An innovative method is developed to determine the diurnal heating amplitude of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) using observations of high-quality satellite SST measurements and NWP atmospheric meteorological data. The diurnal cycle results from heating that develops at the surface of the ocean from low mechanical or shear produced turbulence and large solar radiation absorption. During these typically calm weather conditions, the absorption of solar radiation causes heating of the upper few meters of the ocean, which become buoyantly stable; this heating causes a temperature differential between the surface and the mixed [or bulk] layer on the order of a few degrees. It has been shown that capturing the diurnal cycle is important for a variety of applications, including surface heat flux estimates, which have been shown to be underestimated when neglecting diurnal warming, and satellite and buoy calibrations, which can be complicated because of the heating differential. An empirical algorithm using a pre-dawn sea surface temperature, peak solar radiation, and accumulated wind stress is used to estimate the cycle. The empirical algorithm is derived from a multistep process in which SSTs from MTG's SEVIRI SST experimental hourly data set are combined with hourly wind stress fields derived from a bulk flux algorithm. Inputs for the flux model are taken from NASA's MERRA reanalysis product. NWP inputs are necessary because the inputs need to incorporate diurnal and air-sea interactive processes, which are vital to the ocean surface dynamics, with a high enough temporal resolution. The MERRA winds are adjusted with CCMP winds to obtain more realistic spatial and variance characteristics and the other atmospheric inputs (air temperature, specific humidity) are further corrected on the basis of in situ comparisons. The SSTs are fitted to a Gaussian curve (using one or two peaks), forming a set of coefficients used to fit the data. The coefficient data are combined with accumulated wind stress and peak solar radiation to create an empirical relationship that approximates physical processes such as turbulence and heating memory (capacity) of the ocean. Weaknesses and strengths of the model, including potential spatial biases, will be discussed.

Evaluation of the land surface water budget in NCEP/NCAR and NCEP/DOE reanalyses using an off-line hydrologic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, Edwin P.; O'Donnell, Greg M.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Roads, John O.

2001-08-01

The ability of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis (NRA1) and the follow-up NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis (NRA2), to reproduce the hydrologic budgets over the Mississippi River basin is evaluated using a macroscale hydrology model. This diagnosis is aided by a relatively unconstrained global climate simulation using the NCEP global spectral model, and a more highly constrained regional climate simulation using the NCEP regional spectral model, both employing the same land surface parameterization (LSP) as the reanalyses. The hydrology model is the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, which is forced by gridded observed precipitation and temperature. It reproduces observed streamflow, and by closure is constrained to balance other terms in the surface water and energy budgets. The VIC-simulated surface fluxes therefore provide a benchmark for evaluating the predictions from the reanalyses and the climate models. The comparisons, conducted for the 10-year period 1988-1997, show the well-known overestimation of summer precipitation in the southeastern Mississippi River basin, a consistent overestimation of evapotranspiration, and an underprediction of snow in NRA1. These biases are generally lower in NRA2, though a large overprediction of snow water equivalent exists. NRA1 is subject to errors in the surface water budget due to nudging of modeled soil moisture to an assumed climatology. The nudging and precipitation bias alone do not explain the consistent overprediction of evapotranspiration throughout the basin. Another source of error is the gravitational drainage term in the NCEP LSP, which produces the majority of the model's reported runoff. This may contribute to an overprediction of persistence of surface water anomalies in much of the basin. Residual evapotranspiration inferred from an atmospheric balance of NRA1, which is more directly related to observed atmospheric variables, matches the VIC prediction much more closely than the coupled models. However, the persistence of the residual evapotranspiration is much less than is predicted by the hydrological model or the climate models.

Atmospheric Drivers of Greenland Surface Melt Revealed by Self-Organizing Maps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mioduszewski, J. R.; Rennermalm, A. K.; Hammann, A.; Tedesco, M.; Noble, E. U.; Stroeve, J. C.; Mote, T. L.

2016-01-01

Recent acceleration in surface melt on the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has occurred concurrently with a rapidly warming Arctic and has been connected to persistent, anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns over Greenland. To identify synoptic setups favoring enhanced GrIS surface melt and their decadal changes, we develop a summer Arctic synoptic climatology by employing self-organizing maps. These are applied to daily 500 hPa geopotential height fields obtained from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis, 1979-2014. Particular circulation regimes are related to meteorological conditions and GrIS surface melt estimated with outputs from the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional. Our results demonstrate that the largest positive melt anomalies occur in concert with positive height anomalies near Greenland associated with wind, temperature, and humidity patterns indicative of strong meridional transport of heat and moisture. We find an increased frequency in a 500 hPa ridge over Greenland coinciding with a 63% increase in GrIS melt between the 1979-1988 and 2005-2014 periods, with 75.0% of surface melt changes attributed to thermodynamics, 17% to dynamics, and 8.0% to a combination. We also confirm that the 2007-2012 time period has the largest dynamic forcing relative of any period but also demonstrate that increased surface energy fluxes, temperature, and moisture separate from dynamic changes contributed more to melt even during this period. This implies that GrIS surface melt is likely to continue to increase in response to an ever warmer future Arctic, regardless of future atmospheric circulation patterns.

Sensitivity of Statistical Downscaling Techniques to Reanalysis Choice and Implications for Regional Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manzanas, R., Sr.; Brands, S.; San Martin, D., Sr.; Gutiérrez, J. M., Sr.

2014-12-01

This work shows that local-scale climate projections obtained by means of statistical downscaling are sensitive to the choice of reanalysis used for calibration. To this aim, a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) approach is applied to downscale daily precipitation in the Philippines. First, the GLMs are trained and tested -under a cross-validation scheme- separately for two distinct reanalyses (ERA-Interim and JRA-25) for the period 1981-2000. When the observed and downscaled time-series are compared, the attained performance is found to be sensitive to the reanalysis considered if climate change signal bearing variables (temperature and/or specific humidity) are included in the predictor field. Moreover, performance differences are shown to be in correspondence with the disagreement found between the raw predictors from the two reanalyses. Second, the regression coefficients calibrated either with ERA-Interim or JRA-25 are subsequently applied to the output of a Global Climate Model (MPI-ECHAM5) in order to assess the sensitivity of local-scale climate change projections (up to 2100) to reanalysis choice. In this case, the differences detected in present climate conditions are considerably amplified, leading to "delta-change" estimates differing by up to a 35% (on average for the entire country) depending on the reanalysis used for calibration. Therefore, reanalysis choice is shown to importantly contribute to the uncertainty of local-scale climate change projections, and, consequently, should be treated with equal care as other, well-known, sources of uncertainty -e.g., the choice of the GCM and/or downscaling method.- Implications of the results for the entire tropics, as well as for the Model Output Statistics downscaling approach are also briefly discussed.

Multidecadal Changes in the UTLS Ozone from the MERRA-2 Reanalysis and the GMI Chemistry Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wargan, Krzysztof; Orbe, Clara; Pawson, Steven; Ziemke, Jerald R.; Oman, Luke; Olsen, Mark; Coy, Lawrence; Knowland, Emma

2018-01-01

Long-term changes of ozone in the UTLS (Upper Troposphere / Lower Stratosphere) reflect the response to decreases in the stratospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting substances as well as changes in the stratospheric circulation induced by climate change. To date, studies of UTLS ozone changes and variability have relied mainly on satellite and in-situ observations as well as chemistry-climate model simulations. By comparison, the potential of reanalysis ozone data remains relatively untapped. This is despite evidence from recent studies, including detailed analyses conducted under SPARC (Scalable Processor Architecture) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP), that demonstrate that stratospheric ozone fields from modern atmospheric reanalyses exhibit good agreement with independent data while delineating issues related to inhomogeneities in the assimilated observations. In this presentation, we will explore the possibility of inferring long-term geographically and vertically resolved behavior of the lower stratospheric (LS) ozone from NASA's MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications -2) reanalysis after accounting for the few known discontinuities and gaps in its assimilated input data. This work builds upon previous studies that have documented excellent agreement between MERRA-2 ozone and ozonesonde observations in the LS. Of particular importance is a relatively good vertical resolution of MERRA-2 allowing precise separation of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone contents. We also compare the MERRA-2 LS ozone results with the recently completed 37-year simulation produced using Goddard Earth Observing System in "replay"� mode coupled with the GMI (Global Modeling Initiative) chemistry mechanism. Replay mode dynamically constrains the model with the MERRA-2 reanalysis winds, temperature, and pressure. We will emphasize the areas of agreement of the reanalysis and replay and interpret differences between them in the context of our increasing understanding of model transport driven by assimilated winds.

Evidence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation driving multi-decadal variability of summertime surface air quality in the eastern United States: Implications for air quality management in the coming decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, L.; Mickley, L. J.

2016-12-01

Atlantic sea surface temperatures have a significant influence on the summertime meteorology and air quality in the eastern United States. In this study, we investigate the effect of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on two key air pollutants, surface ozone and PM2.5, over the eastern United States. The shift of AMO from cold to warm phase increases surface air temperatures by 0.5 K across the East and reduces precipitation, resulting in a warmer and drier summer. By applying observed, present-day relationships between these pollutants and meteorological variables to a variety of observations and historical reanalysis datasets, we calculate the impacts of AMO on U.S. air quality. Our study reveals a multidecadal variability in mean summertime (JJA) maximum daily 8-hour (MDA8) ozone and surface PM2.5 concentrations in the eastern United States. In one-half cycle ( 30 years) of the AMO from negative to positive phase with constant anthropogenic emissions, JJA MDA8 ozone concentrations increase by 1-3 ppbv in the Northeast and 2-5 ppbv in the Great Plains; JJA PM2.5 concentrations increase by 0.8-1.2 μg m-3 in the Northeast and Southeast. The resulting impact on mortality rates is 4000 excess deaths per half cycle of AMO. We suggest that a complete picture of air quality management in coming decades requires consideration of the AMO influence.

Mechanisms of the intensification of the upwelling-favorable winds during El Niño 1997-1998 in the Peruvian upwelling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chamorro, Adolfo; Echevin, Vincent; Colas, François; Oerder, Vera; Tam, Jorge; Quispe-Ccalluari, Carlos

2018-01-01

The physical processes driving the wind intensification in a coastal band of 100 km off Peru during the intense 1997-1998 El Niño (EN) event were studied using a regional atmospheric model. A simulation performed for the period 1994-2000 reproduced the coastal wind response to local sea surface temperature (SST) forcing and large scale atmospheric conditions. The model, evaluated with satellite data, represented well the intensity, seasonal and interannual variability of alongshore (i.e. NW-SE) winds. An alongshore momentum budget showed that the pressure gradient was the dominant force driving the surface wind acceleration. The pressure gradient tended to accelerate the coastal wind, while turbulent vertical mixing decelerated it. A quasi-linear relation between surface wind and pressure gradient anomalies was found. Alongshore pressure gradient anomalies were caused by a greater increase in near-surface air temperature off the northern coast than off the southern coast, associated with the inhomogeneous SST warming. Vertical profiles of wind, mixing coefficient, and momentum trends showed that the surface wind intensification was not caused by the increase of turbulence in the planetary boundary layer. Moreover, the temperature inversion in the vertical mitigated the development of pressure gradient due to air convection during part of the event. Sensitivity experiments allowed to isolate the respective impacts of the local SST forcing and large scale condition on the coastal wind intensification. It was primarily driven by the local SST forcing whereas large scale variability associated with the South Pacific Anticyclone modulated its effects. Examination of other EN events using reanalysis data confirmed that intensifications of alongshore wind off Peru were associated with SST alongshore gradient anomalies, as during the 1997-1998 event.

Atmospheric Circulation Patterns over East Asia and Their Connection with Summer Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature in Eastern China during 1961-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuping; Hou, Wei; Feng, Guolin

2018-04-01

Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and Chinese observational data during 1961-2013, atmospheric circulation patterns over East Asia in summer and their connection with precipitation and surface air temperature in eastern China as well as associated external forcing are investigated. Three patterns of the atmospheric circulation are identified, all with quasi-barotropic structures: (1) the East Asia/Pacific (EAP) pattern, (2) the Baikal Lake/Okhotsk Sea (BLOS) pattern, and (3) the eastern China/northern Okhotsk Sea (ECNOS) pattern. The positive EAP pattern significantly increases precipitation over the Yangtze River valley and favors cooling north of the Yangtze River and warming south of the Yangtze River in summer. The warm sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean suppress convection over the northwestern subtropical Pacific through the Ekman divergence induced by a Kelvin wave and excite the EAP pattern. The positive BLOS pattern is associated with below-average precipitation south of the Yangtze River and robust cooling over northeastern China. This pattern is triggered by anomalous spring sea ice concentration in the northern Barents Sea. The anomalous sea ice concentration contributes to a Rossby wave activity flux originating from the Greenland Sea, which propagates eastward to North Pacific. The positive ECNOS pattern leads to below-average precipitation and significant warming over northeastern China in summer. The reduced soil moisture associated with the earlier spring snowmelt enhances surface warming over Mongolia and northeastern China and the later spring snowmelt leads to surface cooling over Far East in summer, both of which are responsible for the formation of the ECNOS pattern.

Nonlinearities in the Evolutional Distinctions Between El Niño and La Niña Types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashok, K.; Shamal, M.; Sahai, A. K.; Swapna, P.

2017-12-01

Using the HadISST, SODA reanalysis, and various other observed and reanalyzed data sets for the period 1950-2010, we explore nonlinearities in the subsurface evolutional distinctions between El Niño types and La Niña types from a few seasons before the onset. Cluster analysis carried out over both summer and winter suggests that while the warm-phased events of both types are distinguishable, several cold phased events are clustered together. Further, we apply a joint Self-Organizing Map (SOM) analysis using the monthly sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and thermocline-depth anomalies in tropical Pacific (TP). Results reveal that the evolutionary paths of El Niño Modoki (EM) and El Niño (EL) are, broadly, different. Subsurface temperature composites of EL and EM show different onset characteristics. During an EL, warm anomaly in the west spreads eastward along the thermocline and reaches the surface in the east in March-May of year(0). During an EM, warm anomaly already exists in the central tropical Pacific and then reaches the surface in the east in September-November of year(0). Composited SSTAs during La Niña (LN) and La Niña Modoki (LM) are distinguishable only at 80% confidence level, but the composited subsurface temperature anomalies show differences in the location of the coldest anomaly as well as evolution at 90% confidence level. Thus, the El Niño flavor distinction is potentially predictable at longer leads.

Observed formation of easterly waves over northeast Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jury, Mark R.

2018-06-01

This study explores the thermodynamic and kinematic features of easterly waves over northeast Africa in July-September season 2005-2015. A daily African easterly wave (AEW) index is formulated from transient satellite rainfall and reanalysis vorticity, and the ten most intense cases are studied by composite analysis. Surface moisture is advected from central Africa towards the Red Sea during AEW formation. The anomalous 600 hPa wind circulation is comprized of a cyclonic-south anticyclonic-north rotor pair and accentuated easterly jet along 17N. Composite convection is initiated over Ethiopia and subsequently intensifies following interaction with a zonal circulation located downstream. Composite AEW temperature anomalies reveal a cool lower-warm upper layer heating profile. 2-8 day variance of satellite OLR reaches a maximum over the southern Arabian Peninsula, suggesting an upstream role for surface heating and the Somali Jet. The large scale environment is analyzed by regression of the AEW index onto daily fields of rainfall, surface air pressure and temperature in July-September season ( N = 1004). The rainfall regression reflects a westward propagating AEW wave-train of higher values on 13N and lower values on 7N with a longitude spacing of 25°. The air pressure and temperature regression features a N-S dipole indicating an anomalous northward ITCZ. A low pressure signal west of the Maritime Continent coupled with a warm zone across the South Indian Ocean coincides with AEW formation over the eastern Sahel.

Enhancing Global Land Surface Hydrology Estimates from the NASA MERRA Reanalysis Using Precipitation Observations and Model Parameter Adjustments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reichle, Rolf; Koster, Randal; DeLannoy, Gabrielle; Forman, Barton; Liu, Qing; Mahanama, Sarith; Toure, Ally

2011-01-01

The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is a state-of-the-art reanalysis that provides. in addition to atmospheric fields. global estimates of soil moisture, latent heat flux. snow. and runoff for J 979-present. This study introduces a supplemental and improved set of land surface hydrological fields ('MERRA-Land') generated by replaying a revised version of the land component of the MERRA system. Specifically. the MERRA-Land estimates benefit from corrections to the precipitation forcing with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad product (version 2.1) and from revised parameters in the rainfall interception model, changes that effectively correct for known limitations in the MERRA land surface meteorological forcings. The skill (defined as the correlation coefficient of the anomaly time series) in land surface hydrological fields from MERRA and MERRA-Land is assessed here against observations and compared to the skill of the state-of-the-art ERA-Interim reanalysis. MERRA-Land and ERA-Interim root zone soil moisture skills (against in situ observations at 85 US stations) are comparable and significantly greater than that of MERRA. Throughout the northern hemisphere, MERRA and MERRA-Land agree reasonably well with in situ snow depth measurements (from 583 stations) and with snow water equivalent from an independent analysis. Runoff skill (against naturalized stream flow observations from 15 basins in the western US) of MERRA and MERRA-Land is typically higher than that of ERA-Interim. With a few exceptions. the MERRA-Land data appear more accurate than the original MERRA estimates and are thus recommended for those interested in using '\\-tERRA output for land surface hydrological studies.

Effects of climate change on daily minimum and maximum temperatures and cloudiness in the Shikoku region: a statistical downscaling model approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tatsumi, Kenichi; Oizumi, Tsutao; Yamashiki, Yosuke

2015-04-01

In this study, we present a detailed analysis of the effect of changes in cloudiness (CLD) between a future period (2071-2099) and the base period (1961-1990) on daily minimum temperature (TMIN) and maximum temperature (TMAX) in the same period for the Shikoku region, Japan. This analysis was performed using climate data obtained with the use of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). We calibrated the SDSM using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for the SDSM input and daily time series of temperature and CLD from 10 surface data points (SDP) in Shikoku. Subsequently, we validated the SDSM outputs, specifically, TMIN, TMAX, and CLD, obtained with the use of the NCEP reanalysis dataset and general circulation model (GCM) data against the SDP. The GCM data used in the validation procedure were those from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios and from the third generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) for the SRES A2 and A1B scenarios. Finally, the validated SDSM was run to study the effect of future changes in CLD on TMIN and TMAX. Our analysis showed that (1) the negative linear fit between changes in TMAX and those in CLD was statistically significant in winter while the relationship between the two changes was not evident in summer, (2) the dependency of future changes in TMAX and TMIN on future changes in CLD were more evident in winter than in other seasons with the present SDSM, (3) the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased in the southern part of Shikoku in summer in all the SDSM projections while DTR increased in the northern part of Shikoku in the same season in these projections, (4) the dependencies of changes in DTR on changes in CLD were unclear in summer and winter. Results of the SDSM simulations performed for climate change scenarios such as those from this study contribute to local-scale agricultural and hydrological simulations and development of agricultural and hydrological models.

Sensitivity of the Antarctic surface mass balance to oceanic perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kittel, C.; Amory, C.; Agosta, C.; Fettweis, X.

2017-12-01

Regional climate models (RCMs) are suitable numerical tools to study the surface mass balance (SMB) of the wide polar ice sheets due to their high spatial resolution and polar-adapted physics. Nonetheless, RCMs are driven at their boundaries and over the ocean by reanalysis or global climate model (GCM) products and are thus influenced by potential biases in these large-scale fields. These biases can be significant for both the atmosphere and the sea surface conditions (i.e. sea ice concentration and sea surface temperature). With the RCM MAR, a set of sensitivity experiments has been realized to assess the direct response of the SMB of the Antarctic ice sheet to oceanic perturbations. MAR is forced by ERA-Interim and anomalies based on mean GCM biases are introduced in sea surface conditions. Results show significant increases (decreases) of liquid and solid precipitation due to biases related to warm (cold) oceans. As precipitation is mainly caused by low-pressure systems that intrude into the continent and do not penetrate far inland, coastal areas are more sensitive than inland regions. Furthermore, warm ocean representative biases lead to anomalies as large as anomalies simulated by other RCMs or GCMs for the end of the 21st century.

Was There a Significantly Negative Anomaly of Global Land Surface Net Radiation from 2001-2006?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, S.; Jia, A.; Jiang, B.

2016-12-01

Surface net radiation, which characterizes surface energy budget, can be estimated from in-situ measurements, satellite products, model simulations, and reanalysis. Satellite products are usually validated using ground measurements to characterize their uncertainties. The surface net radiation product from the CERES (Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System) has been widely used. After validating it using extensive ground measurements, we also verified that the CERES surface net radiation product is highly accurate. When we evaluated the temporal variations of the averaged global land surface net radiation from the CERES product, we found a significantly negative anomaly starting from 2001, reaching the maximum in 2004, and gradually coming back to normal in 2006. The valley has the magnitude of approximately 3 Wm-2 centered at 2004. After comparing with the high-resolution GLASS (Global LAnd Surface Satellite) net radiation product developed at Beijing Normal University, the CMIP5 model simulations, and the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset, we concluded that the significant decreasing pattern of land surface net radiation from 2001-2006 is an artifact mainly due to inaccurate longwave net radiation of the CERES surface net radiation product. The current ground measurement networks are not spatially dense enough to capture the false negative anomaly from the CERES product, which calls for more ground measurements.

Interannual variation of the surface temperature of tropical forests from satellite observations

DOE PAGES

Gao, Huilin; Zhang, Shuai; Fu, Rong; ...

2016-01-01

Land surface temperatures (LSTs) within tropical forests contribute to climate variations. However, observational data are very limited in such regions. This study used passive microwave remote sensing data from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS), providing observations under all weather conditions, to investigate the LST over the Amazon and Congo rainforests. The SSM/I and SSMIS data were collected from 1996 to 2012. The morning and afternoon observations from passive microwave remote sensing facilitate the investigation of the interannual changes of LST anomalies on a diurnal basis. As a result of the variability ofmore » cloud cover and the corresponding reduction of solar radiation, the afternoon LST anomalies tend to vary more than the morning LST anomalies. The dominant spatial and temporal patterns for interseasonal variations of the LST anomalies over the tropical rainforest were analyzed. The impacts of droughts and El Niños on this LST were also investigated. Lastly, the differences between early morning and late afternoon LST anomalies were identified by the remote sensing product, with the morning LST anomalies controlled by humidity (according to comparisons with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data).« less

Evaluation of Extratropical Cyclone Precipitation in the North Atlantic Basin: An analysis of ERA-Interim, WRF, and two CMIP5 models.

PubMed

Booth, James F; Naud, Catherine M; Willison, Jeff

2018-03-01

The representation of extratropical cyclones (ETCs) precipitation in general circulation models (GCMs) and a weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is analyzed. This work considers the link between ETC precipitation and dynamical strength and tests if parameterized convection affects this link for ETCs in the North Atlantic Basin. Lagrangian cyclone tracks of ETCs in ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI), the GISS and GFDL CMIP5 models, and WRF with two horizontal resolutions are utilized in a compositing analysis. The 20-km resolution WRF model generates stronger ETCs based on surface wind speed and cyclone precipitation. The GCMs and ERAI generate similar composite means and distributions for cyclone precipitation rates, but GCMs generate weaker cyclone surface winds than ERAI. The amount of cyclone precipitation generated by the convection scheme differs significantly across the datasets, with GISS generating the most, followed by ERAI and then GFDL. The models and reanalysis generate relatively more parameterized convective precipitation when the total cyclone-averaged precipitation is smaller. This is partially due to the contribution of parameterized convective precipitation occurring more often late in the ETC life cycle. For reanalysis and models, precipitation increases with both cyclone moisture and surface wind speed, and this is true if the contribution from the parameterized convection scheme is larger or not. This work shows that these different models generate similar total ETC precipitation despite large differences in the parameterized convection, and these differences do not cause unexpected behavior in ETC precipitation sensitivity to cyclone moisture or surface wind speed.

Tuning a climate model using nudging to reanalysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheedela, S. K.; Mapes, B. E.

2014-12-01

Tuning a atmospheric general circulation model involves a daunting task of adjusting non-observable parameters to adjust the mean climate. These parameters arise from necessity to describe unresolved flow through parametrizations. Tuning a climate model is often done with certain set of priorities, such as global mean temperature, net top of the atmosphere radiation. These priorities are hard enough to reach let alone reducing systematic biases in the models. The goal of currently study is to explore alternate ways to tune a climate model to reduce some systematic biases that can be used in synergy with existing efforts. Nudging a climate model to a known state is a poor man's inverse of tuning process described above. Our approach involves nudging the atmospheric model to state of art reanalysis fields thereby providing a balanced state with respect to the global mean temperature and winds. The tendencies derived from nudging are negative of errors from physical parametrizations as the errors from dynamical core would be small. Patterns of nudging are compared to the patterns of different physical parametrizations to decipher the cause for certain biases in relation to tuning parameters. This approach might also help in understanding certain compensating errors that arise from tuning process. ECHAM6 is a comprehensive general model, also used in recent Coupled Model Intercomparision Project(CMIP5). The approach used to tune it and effect of certain parameters that effect its mean climate are reported clearly, hence it serves as a benchmark for our approach. Our planned experiments include nudging ECHAM6 atmospheric model to European Center Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and reanalysis from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and decipher choice of certain parameters that lead to systematic biases in its simulations. Of particular interest are reducing long standing biases related to simulation of Asian summer monsoon.

Large differences in reanalyses of diabatic heating in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, J. S.; Fueglistaler, S.

2013-09-01

We present the time mean heat budgets of the tropical upper troposphere (UT) and lower stratosphere (LS) as simulated by five reanalysis models: the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), European Reanalysis (ERA-Interim), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Japanese 25-yr Reanalysis and Japan Meteorological Agency Climate Data Assimilation System (JRA-25/JCDAS), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis 1. The simulated diabatic heat budget in the tropical UTLS differs significantly from model to model, with substantial implications for representations of transport and mixing. Large differences are apparent both in the net heat budget and in all comparable individual components, including latent heating, heating due to radiative transfer, and heating due to parameterised vertical mixing. We describe and discuss the most pronounced differences. Discrepancies in latent heating reflect continuing difficulties in representing moist convection in models. Although these discrepancies may be expected, their magnitude is still disturbing. We pay particular attention to discrepancies in radiative heating (which may be surprising given the strength of observational constraints on temperature and tropospheric water vapour) and discrepancies in heating due to turbulent mixing (which have received comparatively little attention). The largest differences in radiative heating in the tropical UTLS are attributable to differences in cloud radiative heating, but important systematic differences are present even in the absence of clouds. Local maxima in heating and cooling due to parameterised turbulent mixing occur in the vicinity of the tropical tropopause.

June 2017: The Earliest European Summer Mega-heatwave of Reanalysis Period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez-Benítez, A.; García-Herrera, R.; Barriopedro, D.; Sousa, P. M.; Trigo, R. M.

2018-02-01

This paper examines the characteristics of the heatwave that affected western and central Europe in June 2017. Using a novel algorithm, we show that its extension, intensity, and persistence were comparable to those of other European mega-heatwaves, but it occurred earlier in the summer. The most affected area was Iberia, which experienced devastating forest fires with human casualties and the warmest temperatures of the reanalysis period from daily to seasonal scales. The peak of the mega-heatwave displayed an unprecedented warm air intrusion due to a record-breaking subtropical ridge with signatures closer to those of July and August. The atmospheric circulation was the main triggering factor of the event. However, thermodynamical changes of the last decades made a substantial contribution to the event, by increasing the likelihood of surpassing high-temperature thresholds. This episode could be a good example of a coming future, with high-summer mega-heatwaves occurring earlier.

The tropopause inversion layer in models and analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birner, T.; Sankey, D.; Shepherd, T. G.

2006-07-01

Recent high-resolution radiosonde climatologies have revealed a tropopause inversion layer (TIL) in the extratropics: temperature strongly increases just above a sharp local cold point tropopause. Here, it is asked to what extent a TIL exists in current general circulation models (GCMs) and meteorological analyses. Only a weak hint of a TIL exists in NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. In contrast, the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM), a comprehensive GCM, exhibits a TIL of realistic strength. However, in data assimilation mode CMAM exhibits a much weaker TIL, especially in the Southern Hemisphere where only coarse satellite data are available. The discrepancy between the analyses and the GCM is thus hypothesized to be mainly due to data assimilation acting to smooth the observed strong curvature in temperature around the tropopause. This is confirmed in the reanalysis where the stratification around the tropopause exhibits a strong discontinuity at the start of the satellite era.

Assessment of Bias in the National Mosaic and Multi-Sensor QPE (NMQ/Q2) Reanalysis Radar-Only Estimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, B. R.; Prat, O. P.; Stevens, S. E.; Seo, D. J.; Zhang, J.; Howard, K.

2014-12-01

The processing of radar-only precipitation via the reanalysis from the National Mosaic and Multi-Sensor QPE (NMQ/Q2) based on the WSR-88D Next-generation Radar (NEXRAD) network over Continental United States (CONUS) is nearly completed for the period covering from 2001 to 2012. Reanalysis data are available at 1-km and 5-minute resolution. An important step in generating the best possible precipitation data is to assess the bias in the radar-only product. In this work, we use data from a combination of rain gauge networks to assess the bias in the NMQ reanalysis. Rain gauge networks such as the Hydrometeorological Automated Data System (HADS), the Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS), the Climate Reference Network (CRN), and the Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-D) are combined for use in the assessment. These rain gauge networks vary in spatial density and temporal resolution. The challenge hence is to optimally utilize them to assess the bias at the finest resolution possible. For initial assessment, we propose to subset the CONUS data in climatologically representative domains, and perform bias assessment using information in the Q2 dataset on precipitation type and phase.

The Response of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation to Intensified Irrigation in Global Climate Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shukla, Sonali P.; Puma, Michael J.; Cook, Benjamin I.

2013-01-01

Agricultural intensification in South Asia has resulted in the expansion and intensification of surface irrigation over the twentieth century. The resulting changes to the surface energy balance could affect the temperature contrasts between the South Asian land surface and the equatorial Indian Ocean, potentially altering the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) circulation. Prior studies have noted apparent declines in the monsoon intensity over the twentieth century and have focused on how altered surface energy balances impact the SASM rainfall distribution. Here, we use the coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R general circulation model to investigate the impact of intensifying irrigation on the large-scale SASM circulation over the twentieth century, including how the effect of irrigation compares to the impact of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. We force our simulations with time-varying, historical estimates of irrigation, both alone and with twentieth century GHGs and other forcings. In the irrigation only experiment, irrigation rates correlate strongly with lower and upper level temperature contrasts between the Indian sub-continent and the Indian Ocean (Pearson's r = -0.66 and r = -0.46, respectively), important quantities that control the strength of the SASM circulation. When GHG forcing is included, these correlations strengthen: r = -0.72 and r = -0.47 for lower and upper level temperature contrasts, respectively. Under irrigated conditions, the mean SASM intensity in the model decreases only slightly and insignificantly. However, in the simulation with irrigation and GHG forcing, inter-annual variability of the SASM circulation decreases by *40 %, consistent with trends in the reanalysis products. This suggests that the inclusion of irrigation may be necessary to accurately simulate the historical trends and variability of the SASM system over the last 50 years. These findings suggest that intensifying irrigation, in concert with increased GHG forcing, is capable of reducing the variability of the simulated SASM circulation and altering the regional moisture transport by limiting the surface warming and reducing land-sea temperature gradients.

Is Recent Warming Unprecedented in the Common Era? Insights from PAGES2k data and the Last Millennium Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erb, M. P.; Emile-Geay, J.; McKay, N.; Hakim, G. J.; Steig, E. J.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2017-12-01

Paleoclimate observations provide a critical context for 20th century warming by putting recent climate change into a longer-term perspective. Previous work (e.g. IPCC AR3-5) has claimed that recent decades are exceptional in the context of past centuries, though these statements are usually accompanied by large uncertainties and little spatial detail. Here we leverage a recent multiproxy compilation (PAGES2k Consortium, 2017) to revisit this long-standing question. We do so via two complementary approaches. The first approach compares multi-decadal averages and trends in PAGES2k proxy records, which include trees, corals, ice cores, and more. Numerous proxy records reveal that late 20th century values are extreme compared to the remainder of the recorded period, although considerable variability exists in the signals preserved in individual records. The second approach uses the same PAGES2k data blended with climate model output to produce an optimal analysis: the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR; Hakim et al., 2016). Unlike proxy data, LMR is spatially-complete and explicitly models uncertainty in proxy records, resulting in objective error estimates. The LMR results show that for nearly every region of the world, late 20th century temperatures exceed temperatures in previous multi-decadal periods during the Common Era, and 20th century warming rates exceed rates in previous centuries. An uncertainty with the present analyses concerns the interpretation of proxy records. PAGES2k included only records that are primarily sensitive to temperature, but many proxies may be influenced by secondary non-temperature effects. Additionally, the issue of seasonality is important as, for example, many temperature-sensitive tree ring chronologies in the Northern Hemisphere respond to summer or growing season temperature rather than annual-means. These uncertainties will be further explored. References Hakim, G. J., et al., 2016: The last millennium climate reanalysis project: Framework and first results. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(12), 6745-6764. http://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD024751 PAGES2k Consortium, 2017: A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era. Scientific Data, 1-33. http://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.88

Boundary formulations for sensitivity analysis without matrix derivatives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kane, J. H.; Guru Prasad, K.

1993-01-01

A new hybrid approach to continuum structural shape sensitivity analysis employing boundary element analysis (BEA) is presented. The approach uses iterative reanalysis to obviate the need to factor perturbed matrices in the determination of surface displacement and traction sensitivities via a univariate perturbation/finite difference (UPFD) step. The UPFD approach makes it possible to immediately reuse existing subroutines for computation of BEA matrix coefficients in the design sensitivity analysis process. The reanalysis technique computes economical response of univariately perturbed models without factoring perturbed matrices. The approach provides substantial computational economy without the burden of a large-scale reprogramming effort.

Analysis of near-surface biases in ERA-Interim over the Canadian Prairies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, Alan K.; Beljaars, Anton C. M.

2017-09-01

We quantify the biases in the diurnal cycle of temperature in ERA-Interim for both warm and cold season using hourly climate station data for four stations in Saskatchewan from 1979 to 2006. The warm season biases increase as opaque cloud cover decreases, and change substantially from April to October. The bias in mean temperature increases almost monotonically from small negative values in April to small positive values in the fall. Under clear skies, the bias in maximum temperature is of the order of -1°C in June and July, and -2°C in spring and fall; while the bias in minimum temperature increases almost monotonically from +1°C in spring to +2.5°C in October. The bias in the diurnal temperature range falls under clear skies from -2.5°C in spring to -5°C in fall. The cold season biases with surface snow have a different structure. The biases in maximum, mean and minimum temperature with a stable BL reach +1°C, +2.6°C and +3°C respectively in January under clear skies. The cold season bias in diurnal range increases from about -1.8°C in the fall to positive values in March. These diurnal biases in 2 m temperature and their seasonal trends are consistent with a high bias in both the diurnal and seasonal amplitude of the model ground heat flux, and a warm season daytime bias resulting from the model fixed leaf area index. Our results can be used as bias corrections in agricultural modeling that use these reanalysis data, and also as a framework for understanding model biases.

Quasi-biennial modulation of the Northern Hemisphere tropopause height and temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, P.; PeñA-Ortiz, C.; AñEl, J. A.; Gimeno, L.; de la Torre, L.; Gallego, D.

2008-04-01

The influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the tropopause pressure and temperature is studied through the application of the multitaper-singular value decomposition method (MTM-SVD). Reanalysis data (ERA-40) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and radiosonde data from the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) covering the period 1979-1999 are used. The results show a strong response of the height and temperature of the tropopause to the QBO not limited to the equatorial latitudes but affecting the entire Northern Hemisphere. A cooling (warming) of the tropopause temperature over polar (equatorial) latitudes during a QBO positive phase is observed, being particularly noticeable over polar latitudes. The anomalies in the tropopause height confirm these results, with the tropopause being at higher (lower) levels in polar (equatorial) latitudes during QBO positive phase. Results for the QBO negative phase are of opposite sign. We also found that the results obtained using raw radiosonde data and reanalysis are in very good agreement. Finally, the evolution of the mass stream function through a QBO cycle is used to justify the differences observed in the evolution of the tropopause characteristics at low and high latitudes through the QBO cycle.

Validation and uncertainty analysis for monthly and extreme precipitation in the ERA-20C reanalysis based on the WZN in-situ measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rustemeier, Elke; Ziese, Markus; Raykova, Kristin; Meyer-Christoffer, Anja; Schneider, Udo; Finger, Peter; Becker, Andreas

2017-04-01

The proper representation of precipitation, in particular extreme precipitation, in global reanalyses is still challenging. This paper focuses on the potential of the ERA-20C centennial reanalysis to reproduce precipitation events. The global ERA-20C Reanalysis has been developed within the projects ERA-CLIM and its successor ERA-CLIM2 with the aim of a multi-decadal reanalysis of the global climate system. One of the objectives of ERA-CLIM2 is to provide useful information about the uncertainty of the various parameters. Since precipitation is a prognostic variable, it allows for independent validation by in-situ measurements. For this purpose, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) operated by the DWD has compared the ERA-20C Reanalysis with the GPCC observational products "Full Data Monthly Version 7" (FDM-V7) and "Full Data Daily Version 1" (FDD-V1). ERA-20C is based on the ECMWF prediction model IFS version Cy38r1 with a spatial resolution of approximately 125 km and covers the 111 years from 1900 to 2010. The GPCC FDM-V7 raster data product, on the other hand, includes the global land surface in-situ measurements between 1901 and 2013 (Schneider et al., 2014) and the FDD-V1 raster data product covers daily precipitation from 1988 to 2013 with daily resolution. The most suitable resolution of 1° was used to validate ERA-20C. For the spatial and temporal validation of the ERA-20C Reanalysis, global temporal scores were calculated on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. These include e.g. monthly contingency table scores, correlation or climate change indices (ETCCDI) for precipitation to determine extreme values and their temporal change (Peterson et al., 2001, Appendix A). Not surprisingly, the regions with the strongest differences are also those with data scarcity, mountain regions with their luv and lee effects or monsoon areas. They all show a strong systematic difference and breaks within the time series. Differences between ERA-20C and FDD-V1 based on ETCCDI diagnoses were detected particularly in regions with large precipitation totals especially in Africa in the ITCZ area and in Indonesia. The overall comparison reveals geo-spatially heterogeneous results with areas of similar precipitation characteristics, but also areas that still remain challenging for the reanalysis' fidelity to represent the FDM-V7 and FDD-F1 based diagnostics. The results serve good guidance where improvements of the future IFS model versions should be most effective. Peterson, T., Folland, C., Gruza, G., Hogg, W., Mokssit, A. and Plummer, N. (2001): Report on the activities of the working group on climate change detection and related rapporteurs. Geneva: World Meteorological Organization. Poli, P., H. Hersbach, D. Tan, D. Dee, J.-N. Thépaut, A. Simmons, C. Peubey, P. Laloy-aux, T. Komori, P. Berrisford, R. Dragani, Y. Trémolet, E. H ´lm, M. Bonavita, L. Isaksen und M. Fisher (2013): The data assimilation system and initial performance evaluation of the ECMWF pilot reanalysis of the 20th-century assimilating surface observations only (ERA-20C), ERA Report Series 14, http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/library/do/references/show?id=90833) Schneider, Udo, Andreas Becker, Peter Finger, Anja Meyer-Christoffer, Bruno Rudolf und Markus Ziese (2015): GPCC Full Data Reanalysis Version 7.0 at 1.0°: Monthly Land-Surface Precipitation from Rain-Gauges built on GTS-based and Historic Data. DOI: 10.5676/DWD_GPCC/FD_M_V7_100

Collaboratively Enabling Reanalysis Intercomparison Using the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF): A Case Study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potter, G. L.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Carriere, L.; McInerney, M.; Nadeau, D.; Shen, Y.

2014-12-01

The NASA Climate Model Data Service (CDS) and the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) are collaborating to provide an end-to-end system for the comparative study of the major reanalysis projects: ECMWF ERA-Interim, NASA/GMAO MERRA, NOAA/NCEP CFSR, NOAA/ESRL 20CR, JMA JRA25, and JRA55. These reanalyses have been repackaged to adhere to the CMIP5 standards and published on the ESGF. Reanalysis centers provide interfaces to the various reanalyses, but each data set requires some effort to either compare with other reanalyses or with atmospheric model output. The repackaging for ESGF required reformatting, restructuring and modifications to the metadata to facilitate the ESGF search capabilities. Once this was done, the data structure is the same as used by the very successful CMIP3 and CMIP5 making comparison among reanalyses and climate models a relatively easy exercise. The data can now be accessed using WGET, OPENDAP, or HTTPServer at https://earthsystemcog.org/projects/ana4mips/ . An example using this interface will be shown including comparison of the reanalyses portrayal of the surface heat balance during the 2010 Russian heat wave. We have found that although the difference reanalyses produce very similar atmospheric features of the heat wave, the surface energy balance terms such as latent and sensible heat show considerable differences. This comparison helps point out systematic differences in the reanalyses surface moisture and may lead to a better understanding of the differences.

Facets of Arctic energy accumulation based on observations and reanalyses 2000-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, Michael; Haimberger, Leopold; Pietschnig, Marianne; Storto, Andrea

2016-10-01

Various observation- and reanalysis-based estimates of sea ice mass and ocean heat content trends imply that the energy imbalance of the Arctic climate system was similar [1.0 (0.9,1.2) Wm-2] to the global ocean average during the 2000-2015 period. Most of this extra heat warmed the ocean, and a comparatively small fraction went into sea ice melt. Poleward energy transports and radiation contributed to this energy increase at varying strengths. On a seasonal scale, stronger radiative energy input during summer associated with the ice-albedo feedback enhances seasonal oceanic heat uptake and sea ice melt. In return, lower sea ice extent and higher sea surface temperatures lead to enhanced heat release from the ocean during fall. This weakens meridional temperature gradients, consequently reducing atmospheric energy transports into the polar cap. The seasonal cycle of the Arctic energy budget is thus amplified, whereas the Arctic's long-term energy imbalance is close to the global mean.

Facets of Arctic energy accumulation based on observations and reanalyses 2000-2015.

PubMed

Mayer, Michael; Haimberger, Leopold; Pietschnig, Marianne; Storto, Andrea

2016-10-16

Various observation- and reanalysis-based estimates of sea ice mass and ocean heat content trends imply that the energy imbalance of the Arctic climate system was similar [1.0 (0.9,1.2) Wm -2 ] to the global ocean average during the 2000-2015 period. Most of this extra heat warmed the ocean, and a comparatively small fraction went into sea ice melt. Poleward energy transports and radiation contributed to this energy increase at varying strengths. On a seasonal scale, stronger radiative energy input during summer associated with the ice-albedo feedback enhances seasonal oceanic heat uptake and sea ice melt. In return, lower sea ice extent and higher sea surface temperatures lead to enhanced heat release from the ocean during fall. This weakens meridional temperature gradients, consequently reducing atmospheric energy transports into the polar cap. The seasonal cycle of the Arctic energy budget is thus amplified, whereas the Arctic's long-term energy imbalance is close to the global mean.

An ocean data assimilation system and reanalysis of the World Ocean hydrophysical fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zelenko, A. A.; Vil'fand, R. M.; Resnyanskii, Yu. D.; Strukov, B. S.; Tsyrulnikov, M. D.; Svirenko, P. I.

2016-07-01

A new version of the ocean data assimilation system (ODAS) developed at the Hydrometcentre of Russia is presented. The assimilation is performed following the sequential scheme analysis-forecast-analysis. The main components of the ODAS are procedures for operational observation data processing, a variational analysis scheme, and an ocean general circulation model used to estimate the first guess fields involved in the analysis. In situ observations of temperature and salinity in the upper 1400-m ocean layer obtained from various observational platforms are used as input data. In the new ODAS version, the horizontal resolution of the assimilating model and of the output products is increased, the previous 2D-Var analysis scheme is replaced by a more general 3D-Var scheme, and a more flexible incremental analysis updating procedure is introduced to correct the model calculations. A reanalysis of the main World Ocean hydrophysical fields over the 2005-2015 period has been performed using the updated ODAS. The reanalysis results are compared with data from independent sources.

Cloud-Enabled Climate Analytics-as-a-Service using Reanalysis data: A case study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadeau, D.; Duffy, D.; Schnase, J. L.; McInerney, M.; Tamkin, G.; Potter, G. L.; Thompson, J. H.

2014-12-01

The NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) maintains advanced data capabilities and facilities that allow researchers to access the enormous volume of data generated by weather and climate models. The NASA Climate Model Data Service (CDS) and the NCCS are merging their efforts to provide Climate Analytics-as-a-Service for the comparative study of the major reanalysis projects: ECMWF ERA-Interim, NASA/GMAO MERRA, NOAA/NCEP CFSR, NOAA/ESRL 20CR, JMA JRA25, and JRA55. These reanalyses have been repackaged to netCDF4 file format following the CMIP5 Climate and Forecast (CF) metadata convention prior to be sequenced into the Hadoop Distributed File System ( HDFS ). A small set of operations that represent a common starting point in many analysis workflows was then created: min, max, sum, count, variance and average. In this example, Reanalysis data exploration was performed with the use of Hadoop MapReduce and accessibility was achieved using the Climate Data Service(CDS) application programming interface (API) created at NCCS. This API provides a uniform treatment of large amount of data. In this case study, we have limited our exploration to 2 variables, temperature and precipitation, using 3 operations, min, max and avg and using 30-year of Reanalysis data for 3 regions of the world: global, polar, subtropical.

The Mars Analysis Correction Data Assimilation (MACDA): A reference atmospheric reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montabone, Luca; Read, Peter; Lewis, Stephen; Steele, Liam; Holmes, James; Valeanu, Alexandru

2016-07-01

The Mars Analysis Correction Data Assimilation (MACDA) dataset version 1.0 contains the reanalysis of fundamental atmospheric and surface variables for the planet Mars covering a period of about three Martian years (late MY 24 to early MY 27). This has been produced by data assimilation of retrieved thermal profiles and column dust optical depths from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor/Thermal Emission Spectrometer (MGS/TES), which have been assimilated into a Mars global climate model (MGCM) using the Analysis Correction scheme developed at the UK Meteorological Office. The MACDA v1.0 reanalysis is publicly available, and the NetCDF files can be downloaded from the archive at the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis/British Atmospheric Data Centre (CEDA/BADC). The variables included in the dataset can be visualised using an ad-hoc graphical user interface (the "MACDA Plotter") at the following URL: http://macdap.physics.ox.ac.uk/ MACDA is an ongoing collaborative project, and work is currently undertaken to produce version 2.0 of the Mars atmospheric reanalysis. One of the key improvements is the extension of the reanalysis period to nine martian years (MY 24 through MY 32), with the assimilation of NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter/Mars Climate Sounder (MRO/MCS) retrievals of thermal and dust opacity profiles. MACDA 2.0 is also going to be based on an improved version of the underlying MGCM and an updated scheme to fully assimilate (radiative active) tracers, such as dust and water ice.

Snow Radiance Data Assimilation over High Mountain Asia Using the NASA Land Information System and a Well-Trained Support Vector Machine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Y.; Forman, B. A.; Yoon, Y.; Kumar, S.

2017-12-01

High Mountain Asia (HMA) has been progressively losing ice and snow in recent decades, which could negatively impact regional water supply and native ecosystems. One goal of this study is to characterize the spatiotemporal variability of snow (and ice) across the HMA region. In addition, modeled snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates will be enhanced through the assimilation of passive microwave brightness temperatures (TB) collected by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) as part of a radiance assimilation system. The radiance assimilation framework includes the NASA Land Information System (LIS) in conjunction with a well-trained support vector machine (SVM) that acts as the observation operator. The Noah Land Surface Model with multi-parameterization options (Noah-MP) is used as the prior model for simulating snow dynamics. Noah-MP is forced by meteorological fields from the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis for the periods 01 Sep. 2002 to 01 Sep. 2011. The radiance assimilation system requires two separate phases: 1) training and 2) assimilation. During the training phase, a nonlinear SVM is generated for three different AMSR-E frequencies - 10.65, 18.7, and 36.5 GHz - at both vertical and horizontal polarization. The trained SVM is then used to predict TB during the assimilation phase. An ensemble Kalman filter will be used to condition the model on AMSR-E brightness temperatures not used during SVM training. The performance of the Noah-MP (with and without radiance assimilation) will be assessed via comparison to in-situ measurements, remotely-sensing geophysical retrievals, and other reanalysis products.

Sources of global warming of the upper ocean on decadal period scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Warren B.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.

2003-01-01

Recent studies find global climate variability in the upper ocean and lower atmosphere during the twentieth century dominated by quasi-biennial, interannual, quasi-decadal and interdecadal signals. The quasi-decadal signal in upper ocean temperature undergoes global warming/cooling of ???0.1??C, similar to that occuring with the interannual signal (i.e., El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation), both signals dominated by global warming/cooling in the tropics. From the National Centers for Environmental Prediction troposphere reanalysis and Scripps Institution of Oceanography upper ocean temperature reanalysis we examine the quasi-decadal global tropical diabetic heat storage (DHS) budget from 1975 to 2000. We find the anomalous DHS warming tendency of 0.3-0.9 W m-2 driven principally by a downward global tropical latent-plus-sensible heat flux anomaly into the ocean, overwhelming the tendency by weaker upward shortwave-minus-longwave heat flux anomaly to drive an anomalous DHS cooling tendency. During the peak quasi-decadal warming the estimated dissipation of DHS anomaly of 0.2-0.5 W m-2 into the deep ocean and a similar loss to the overlying atmosphere through air-sea heat flux anomaly are balanced by a decrease in the net poleward Ekman heat advection out of the tropics of 0.4-0.7 W m-2. This scenario is nearly the opposite of that accounting for global tropical warming during the El Nin??o. These diagnostics confirm that even though the global quasi-decadal signal is phase-locked to the 11-year signal in the Sun's surface radiative forcing of ???0.1 W m-2, the anomalous global tropical DHS tendency cannot be driven by it directly.

Modelling coffee leaf rust risk in Colombia with climate reanalysis data.

PubMed

Bebber, Daniel P; Castillo, Ángela Delgado; Gurr, Sarah J

2016-12-05

Many fungal plant diseases are strongly controlled by weather, and global climate change is thus likely to have affected fungal pathogen distributions and impacts. Modelling the response of plant diseases to climate change is hampered by the difficulty of estimating pathogen-relevant microclimatic variables from standard meteorological data. The availability of increasingly sophisticated high-resolution climate reanalyses may help overcome this challenge. We illustrate the use of climate reanalyses by testing the hypothesis that climate change increased the likelihood of the 2008-2011 outbreak of Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR, Hemileia vastatrix) in Colombia. We develop a model of germination and infection risk, and drive this model using estimates of leaf wetness duration and canopy temperature from the Japanese 55-Year Reanalysis (JRA-55). We model germination and infection as Weibull functions with different temperature optima, based upon existing experimental data. We find no evidence for an overall trend in disease risk in coffee-growing regions of Colombia from 1990 to 2015, therefore, we reject the climate change hypothesis. There was a significant elevation in predicted CLR infection risk from 2008 to 2011 compared with other years. JRA-55 data suggest a decrease in canopy surface water after 2008, which may have helped terminate the outbreak. The spatial resolution and accuracy of climate reanalyses are continually improving, increasing their utility for biological modelling. Confronting disease models with data requires not only accurate climate data, but also disease observations at high spatio-temporal resolution. Investment in monitoring, storage and accessibility of plant disease observation data are needed to match the quality of the climate data now available.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'. © 2016 The Authors.

Downscaling with a nested regional climate model in near-surface fields over the contiguous United States: WRF dynamical downscaling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jiali; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R.

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for dynamic downscaling of 2.5 degree National Centers for Environmental Prediction-U.S. Department of Energy Reanalysis II (NCEP-R2) data for 1980-2010 at 12 km resolution over most of North America. The model's performance for surface air temperature and precipitation is evaluated by comparison with high-resolution observational data sets. The model's ability to add value is investigated by comparison with NCEP-R2 data and a 50 km regional climate simulation. The causes for major model bias are studied through additional sensitivity experiments with various model setup/integration approaches and physics representations. The WRF captures themore » main features of the spatial patterns and annual cycles of air temperature and precipitation over most of the contiguous United States. However, simulated air temperatures over the south central region and precipitation over the Great Plains and the Southwest have significant biases. Allowing longer spin-up time, reducing the nudging strength, or replacing the WRF Single-Moment 6-class microphysics with Morrison microphysics reduces the bias over some subregions. However, replacing the Grell-Devenyi cumulus parameterization with Kain-Fritsch shows no improvement. The 12 km simulation does add value above the NCEP-R2 data and the 50 km simulation over mountainous and coastal zones.« less

Response of wheat yield in Spain to large-scale patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez-Barrera, Sara; Rodriguez-Puebla, Concepcion

2016-04-01

Crops are vulnerable to extreme climate conditions as drought, heat stress and frost risk. In previous study we have quantified the influence of these climate conditions for winter wheat in Spain (Hernandez-Barrera et al. 2015). The climate extremes respond to large-scale atmospheric and oceanic patterns. Therefore, a question emerges in our investigation: How large-scale patterns affect wheat yield? Obtaining and understanding these relationships require different approaches. In this study, we first obtained the leading mode of observed wheat yield variability to characterize the common variability over different provinces in Spain. Then, the wheat variability is related to different modes of mean sea level pressure, jet stream and sea surface temperature by using Partial Least-Squares, which captures the relevant climate drivers accounting for variations in wheat yield from sowing to harvesting. We used the ERA-Interim reanalysis data and the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) (ERSST v3b). The derived model provides insight about the teleconnections between wheat yield and atmospheric and oceanic circulations, which is considered to project the wheat yield trend under global warming using outputs of twelve climate models corresponding to the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Hernandez-Barrera S., C. Rodríguez-Puebla and A.J. Challinor. Effects of diurnal temperature range and drought on wheat yield in Spain. Theoretical and Applied Climatology (submitted)

The impact of sea surface temperature on winter wheat in Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capa-Morocho, Mirian; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belen; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

2016-04-01

Climate variability is the main driver of changes in crops yield, especially for rainfed production systems. This is also the case of Iberian Peninsula (IP) (Capa-Morocho et al., 2014), where wheat yields are strongly dependent on seasonal rainfall amount and temporal distribution of rainfall during the growing season. Previous works have shown that large-scale oceanic patterns have a significant impact on precipitation over IP (Rodriguez-Fonseca and de Castro, 2002; Rodríguez-Fonseca et al., 2006). The existence of some predictability of precipitation has encouraged us to analyze the possible predictability of the wheat yield in the IP using sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies as predictor. For this purpose, a crop model site specific calibrated for the Northeast of IP and several reanalysis climate datasets have been used to obtain long time series of attainable wheat yield and relate their variability with SST anomalies. The results show that wheat yield anomalies are associated with changes in the Tropical Pacific (El Niño) and Atlantic (TNA) SST. For these events, the regional associated atmospheric pattern resembles the NAO, which also influences directly on the maximum temperatures and precipitation experienced by the crop during flowering and grain filling. Results from this study could have important implications for predictability issues in agricultural planning and management, such as insurance coverage, changes in sowing dates and choice of species and varieties.

Global satellite data highlights the diurnal asymmetry of the surface temperature response to deforestation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Natalie M.; Lawrence, Peter J.; Lee, Xuhui

2017-04-01

Uncertainties remain about the spatial pattern and magnitude of the biophysical effects of deforestation. In particular, a diurnal asymmetry in the magnitude and sign of the surface temperature response to deforestation (ΔTS) has been observed, but the biophysical processes that contribute to day and nighttime ΔTS are not fully understood. In this study, we use a space-for-time approach with satellite and reanalysis data to investigate the biophysical processes that control the day and nighttime ΔTS. Additionally, we incorporate flux-tower data to examine two hypotheses for nighttime forest warming relative to open lands: (1) that forests generate turbulence in the stable nocturnal boundary layer, which brings heat aloft down to the surface, and (2) that forests store more heat during the day and release it at night. Our results confirm a diurnal asymmetry in ΔTS. Over most regions of the world, deforestation results in daytime warming and nighttime cooling. The strongest daytime warming is in the tropics, where the average ΔTS is 4.4 ± 0.07 K. The strongest nighttime cooling is observed in the boreal zone, where open lands are cooler than forests by an average of 1.4 ± 0.04 K. Daytime patterns of ΔTS are explained by differences in the latent heat flux (ΔLE) and absorbed solar radiation (ΔKa). We find that nighttime ΔTS is related to the strength of the nocturnal temperature inversion, with stronger temperature inversions at high latitudes and weak inversions in the tropics. Forest turbulence at night combined with stored heat release drives nighttime ΔTS patterns.

Analysis of the structure of climate networks under El Niño and La Niña conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graciosa, Juan Carlos; Pastor, Marissa

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of natural climate variability and is characterized by anomalies in the sea surface temperatures (SST) over the tropical Pacific ocean. It has three phases: neutral, a warming phase or El Niño, and a cooling phase called La Niña. In this research, we modeled the climate under the three phases as a network and characterized its properties. We utilized the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) daily surface temperature reanalysis data from January 1950 to December 2016. A network associated to a month was created using the temperature spanning from the previous month to the succeeding month, for a total of three months worth of data for each network. Each site of the included data was a potential node in the network and the existence of links were determined by the strength of their relationship, which was based on mutual information. Interestingly, we found that climate networks exhibit small-world properties and these are found to be more prominent from October to April, coinciding with observations that El Niño occurrences peak from December to March. During these months, the temperature of a relatively large part of the Pacific ocean and its surrounding areas increase and the anomaly values become synchronized. This synchronization in the temperature anomalies forms links around the Pacific, increasing the clustering in the region and in effect, that of the entire network.

Spacebased Estimation of Moisture Transport in Marine Atmosphere Using Support Vector Regression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xie, Xiaosu; Liu, W. Timothy; Tang, Benyang

2007-01-01

An improved algorithm is developed based on support vector regression (SVR) to estimate horizonal water vapor transport integrated through the depth of the atmosphere ((Theta)) over the global ocean from observations of surface wind-stress vector by QuikSCAT, cloud drift wind vector derived from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and geostationary satellites, and precipitable water from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I). The statistical relation is established between the input parameters (the surface wind stress, the 850 mb wind, the precipitable water, time and location) and the target data ((Theta) calculated from rawinsondes and reanalysis of numerical weather prediction model). The results are validated with independent daily rawinsonde observations, monthly mean reanalysis data, and through regional water balance. This study clearly demonstrates the improvement of (Theta) derived from satellite data using SVR over previous data sets based on linear regression and neural network. The SVR methodology reduces both mean bias and standard deviation comparedwith rawinsonde observations. It agrees better with observations from synoptic to seasonal time scales, and compare more favorably with the reanalysis data on seasonal variations. Only the SVR result can achieve the water balance over South America. The rationale of the advantage by SVR method and the impact of adding the upper level wind will also be discussed.

Stochastic hydrological and degree-day model coupled for the Himalayan glacierized catchments: the case study of Dudh Koshi River, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salerno, Franco; Guyennon, Nicolas; Sudeep, Thakuri; Romano, Emanuele; Tartari, Gianni

2015-04-01

This contribution aims at linking temperature and precipitation trends detected with ground stations at high elevations of south slopes of Mt. Everest in the last twenty years, extended back with gridded and reanalysis data, with changes observed for discharges of Dudh Koshi River (3715 km2), Nepal. The study is carried out though: a) the daily temperature and precipitation reconstruction of the last twenty years (1994-2013) at 5050 m a.s.l. and 25 AWSs located at lower elevation and on the Tibetan Plateau (Salerno et al., on TCD); d) all available gridded and reanalysis data set both for temperature and precipitation for extending our analysis back to '60s. b) glacier surfaces (about 400 km2) changes since 60s using all available satellite imagery and glacier mass losses since the beginning of 2000s (Thakuri et al., 2014); c) a stochastic hydrological model for detecting changes observed for discharges of Dudh Koshi river since 60s; c) a degree day model for simulating the glacier melt since 60s. In the last years physically-based hydrological models are started to be adopted for Himalayan glacierized catchments. However, such models present several limitations due to lack of data for the calibration/validation and to an over-parameterization. In this paper, a simple statistical method to simulate the river discharge of a glacierized (~14%) Himalayan basin, based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), is proposed. The SPI approach is ground on these assumptions: a) as a first approximation discharges can be assessed at monthly time scale; b) in monsoon regimes the discharge is mainly dependent on precipitation taken into account at different time scales and with different "weights"; and c) the parameters linking the precipitation regime to discharge are considered constant over time. On the base of such assumptions, to seek for relationships between the precipitation regime and discharge (Q), a multi-linear regression model (called SPI-Q) is calibrated and validated at monthly scale using the least-square method. We observed an increasing temperature trend occurred mainly in winter months, but during the summer ones we noted a slight decreasing of maximum temperature. We confirm for these high elevations the generalized weakening of the monsoon, already observed in literature, accounting here over 50% of reduction in the last twenty years! In the previous period (70s to 90s) gridded and reanalysis data revealed for our reference site a slight increasing mean temperature and weak increasing precipitation. As a result, glaciers experienced an overall surface area loss of 13% and an upward shift of the snowline altitude (SLA) by 182 m.. Moreover, since early '90s, we found a significant upward shift of SLA which increased almost three times. The accelerated shrinkage in recent decades has only affected glaciers with the largest sizes (>10 km2), presenting accumulation zones at higher elevations and along the preferable south-north direction of the monsoons. This finding leads to the hypothesis that Mt. Everest glaciers are shrinking, not only due to warming temperatures, but also as a result of weakening Asian monsoons (Thakuri et al., 2014). Our hypothesis are corroborated by coupling of the stochastic hydrological and the degree-day model. The SPI-Q model implies that (i) the Dudh Koshi river discharge is mainly dependent on precipitation from 1960s to 2000s. In this period, the monsoon alone is able to describe over 90% of annual river discharge; (ii) however since the beginning of 2000s, we observed a non-stationarity in the river discharge and the model fails to predict correctly the increased summer discharge, not justified by the observed weakening monsoon; (iii) coupling SPI-Q with the degree-day model underline as in the last decades the summer discharges are affected by an accelerated glacier melting, even observed with the glaciological analysis.

The role of Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea anticyclonic circulation in forcing marine air intrusions into West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emanuelsson, B. Daniel; Bertler, Nancy A. N.; Neff, Peter D.; Renwick, James A.; Markle, Bradley R.; Baisden, W. Troy; Keller, Elizabeth D.

2018-01-01

Persistent positive 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies from the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis are used to quantify Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea (ABS) anticyclonic event occurrences associated with precipitation in West Antarctica (WA). We demonstrate that multi-day (minimum 3-day duration) anticyclones play a key role in the ABS by dynamically inducing meridional transport, which is associated with heat and moisture advection into WA. This affects surface climate variability and trends, precipitation rates and thus WA ice sheet surface mass balance. We show that the snow accumulation record from the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core reflects interannual variability of blocking and geopotential height conditions in the ABS/Ross Sea region. Furthermore, our analysis shows that larger precipitation events are related to enhanced anticyclonic circulation and meridional winds, which cause pronounced dipole patterns in air temperature anomalies and sea ice concentrations between the eastern Ross Sea and the Bellingshausen Sea/Weddell Sea, as well as between the eastern and western Ross Sea.

Evaluation of WRF Simulations With Different Selections of Subgrid Orographic Drag Over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, X.; Beljaars, A.; Wang, Y.; Huang, B.; Lin, C.; Chen, Y.; Wu, H.

2017-09-01

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations with different selections of subgrid orographic drag over the Tibetan Plateau have been evaluated with observation and ERA-Interim reanalysis. Results show that the subgrid orographic drag schemes, especially the turbulent orographic form drag (TOFD) scheme, efficiently reduce the 10 m wind speed bias and RMS error with respect to station measurements. With the combination of gravity wave, flow blocking and TOFD schemes, wind speed is simulated more realistically than with the individual schemes only. Improvements are also seen in the 2 m air temperature and surface pressure. The gravity wave drag, flow blocking drag, and TOFD schemes combined have the smallest station mean bias (-2.05°C in 2 m air temperature and 1.27 hPa in surface pressure) and RMS error (3.59°C in 2 m air temperature and 2.37 hPa in surface pressure). Meanwhile, the TOFD scheme contributes more to the improvements than the gravity wave drag and flow blocking schemes. The improvements are more pronounced at low levels of the atmosphere than at high levels due to the stronger drag enhancement on the low-level flow. The reduced near-surface cold bias and high-pressure bias over the Tibetan Plateau are the result of changes in the low-level wind components associated with the geostrophic balance. The enhanced drag directly leads to weakened westerlies but also enhances the a-geostrophic flow in this case reducing (enhancing) the northerlies (southerlies), which bring more warm air across the Himalaya Mountain ranges from South Asia (bring less cold air from the north) to the interior Tibetan Plateau.

Dynamical and thermodynamical coupling between the North Atlantic subtropical high and the marine boundary layer clouds in boreal summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Wei; Li, Wenhong; Deng, Yi; Yang, Song; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Huang, Lei; Liu, W. Timothy

2018-04-01

This study investigates dynamical and thermodynamical coupling between the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH), marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds, and the local sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the North Atlantic in boreal summer for 1984-2009 using NCEP/DOE Reanalysis 2 dataset, various cloud data, and the Hadley Centre sea surface temperature. On interannual timescales, the summer mean subtropical MBL clouds to the southeast of the NASH is actively coupled with the NASH and local SSTs: a stronger (weaker) NASH is often accompanied with an increase (a decrease) of MBL clouds and abnormally cooler (warmer) SSTs along the southeast flank of the NASH. To understand the physical processes between the NASH and the MBL clouds, the authors conduct a data diagnostic analysis and implement a numerical modeling investigation using an idealized anomalous atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Results suggest that significant northeasterly anomalies in the southeast flank of the NASH associated with an intensified NASH tend to induce stronger cold advection and coastal upwelling in the MBL cloud region, reducing the boundary surface temperature. Meanwhile, warm advection associated with the easterly anomalies from the African continent leads to warming over the MBL cloud region at 700 hPa. Such warming and the surface cooling increase the atmospheric static stability, favoring growth of the MBL clouds. The anomalous diabatic cooling associated with the growth of the MBL clouds dynamically excites an anomalous anticyclone to its north and contributes to strengthening of the NASH circulation in its southeast flank. The dynamical and thermodynamical couplings and their associated variations in the NASH, MBL clouds, and SSTs constitute an important aspect of the summer climate variability over the North Atlantic.

Experiment of Rain Retrieval over Land Using Surface Emissivity Map Derived from TRMM TMI and JRA25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furuzawa, Fumie; Masunaga, Hirohiko; Nakamura, Kenji

2010-05-01

We are developing a data-set of global land surface emissivity calculated from TRMM TMI brightness temperature (TB) and atmospheric profile data of Japanese 25-year Reanalysis Project (JRA-25) for the region identified as no-rain by TRMM PR, assuming zero cloud liquid water beyond 0-C level. For the evaluation, some characteristics of global monthly emissivity maps, for example, dependency of emissivity on each TMI frequency or each local time or seasonal/annual variation are checked. Moreover, these data are classified based on JRA25 land type or soilwetness and compared. Histogram of polarization difference of emissivity is similar to that of TB and mostly reflects the variability of land type or soil wetness, while histogram of vertical emissivity show a small difference. Next, by interpolating this instantaneous dataset with Gaussian function weighting, we derive an emissivity over neighboring rainy region and assess the interpolated emissivity by running radiative transfer model using PR rain profile and comparing with observed TB. Preliminary rain retrieval from the emissivities for some frequencies and TBs is evaluated based on PR rain profile and TMI rain rate. Moreover, another method is tested to estimate surface temperature from two emissivities, based on their statistical relation for each land type. We will show the results for vertical and horizontal emissivities of each frequency.

Regional Climate Response to Volcanic Radiative Forcing in Middle East and North Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenchikov, G.; Dogar, M.

2012-04-01

We have tested the regional climate sensitivity in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to radiation perturbations caused by the large explosive equatorial volcanic eruptions of the second part of 20th century, El Chichon and Pinatubo occurred, respectively, in 1982 and 1991. The observations and reanalysis data show that the surface volcanic cooling in the MENA region is two-three times larger than the global mean response to volcanic forcing. The Red Sea surface temperature appears to be also very sensitive to the external radiative impact. E.g., the sea surface cooling, associated with the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, caused deep water mixing and coral bleaching for a few years. To better quantify these effects we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory global High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HIRAM) to conduct simulations of both the El Chichon and Pinatubo impacts with the effectively 25-km grid spacing. We find that the circulation changes associated with the positive phase of the arctic oscillation amplified the winter temperature anomalies in 1982-1984 and 1991-1993. The dynamic response to volcanic cooling also is characterized by the southward shift of the inter-tropical convergence zone in summer and associated impact on the precipitation patterns. Thus, these results suggest that the climate regime in the MENA region is highly sensitive to external forcing. This is important for better understanding of the climate variability and change in this region.

Hydrological variability in the Fraser River Basin during the 20th century: A sensitivity study with the VIC model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, D.; Gao, H.; Dery, S. J.

2012-12-01

The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, a macroscale surface hydrology model, was applied to the Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia, Canada. Previous modeling studies have demonstrated that the FRB is a snow-dominated system but with climate change may evolve to a pluvial regime. The ultimate goal of this model application is to evaluate the changing contribution of snowmelt to streamflow in the FRB both spatially and temporally. To this end, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data combined with meteorological observations over 1953 to 2006 are used to drive the model at a resolution of 0.25°. Model simulations are first validated with daily discharge observations from the Water Survey of Canada (WSC). In addition, the snow water equivalent (SWE) results from VIC are compared with snow pillow observations from the B.C. Ministry of Environment. Then peak SWE values simulated each winter are compared with the annual runoff data to quantify the changing contribution of snowmelt to the hydrology of the FRB. With perturbed model forcings such as precipitation and air temperature, how streamflow and surface energy-mass balance are changed is evaluated. Finally, interactions between the land surface and ambient atmosphere are evaluated by analyzing VIC results such as evaporation, soil moisture, snowmelt and sensible-latent heat flux with corresponding meteorological forcings, i.e. precipitation and air temperature.

Inter-annual Variability of Temperature and Extreme Heat Events during the Nairobi Warm Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, A.; Misiani, H. O.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Ouma, G. O.; Anyah, R. O.; Jordan, A.

2016-12-01

Extreme heat events significantly stress all organisms in the ecosystem, and are likely to be amplified in peri-urban and urban areas. Understanding the variability and drivers behind these events is key to generating early warnings, yet in Equatorial East Africa, this information is currently unavailable. This study uses daily maximum and minimum temperature records from weather stations within Nairobi and its surroundings to characterize variability in daily minimum temperatures and the number of extreme heat events. ERA-Interim reanalysis is applied to assess the drivers of these events at event and seasonal time scales. At seasonal time scales, high temperatures in Nairobi are a function of large scale climate variability associated with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature (GMSST). Extreme heat events, however, are more strongly associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For instance, the persistence of AMO and ENSO, in particular, provide a basis for seasonal prediction of extreme heat events/days in Nairobi. It is also apparent that the temporal signal from extreme heat events in tropics differs from classic heat wave definitions developed in the mid-latitudes, which suggests that a new approach for defining these events is necessary for tropical regions.

Heat waves in Senegal : detection, characterization and associated processes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnacoussa Sambou, Marie Jeanne; Janicot, Serge; Badiane, Daouda; Pohl, Benjamin; Dieng, Abdou L.; Gaye, Amadou T.

2017-04-01

Atmospheric configuration and synoptic evolution of patterns associated with Senegalese heat wave (HW) are examined on the period 1979-2014 using the Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) observational database and ERA-Interim reanalysis. Since there is no objective and uniform definition of HW events, threshold methods based on atmospheric variables as daily maximum (Tmax) / minimum (Tmin) temperatures and daily mean apparent temperature (AT) are used to define HW threshold detection. Each criterion is related to a specific category of HW events: Tmax (warm day events), Tmin (warm night events) and AT (combining temperature and moisture). These definitions are used in order to characterize as well as possible the warm events over the Senegalese regions (oceanic versus continental region). Statistics on time evolution and spatial distribution of warm events are carried out over the 2 seasons of maximum temperature (March-May and October-November). For each season, a composite of HW events, as well as the most extended event over Senegal (as a case study) are analyzed using usual atmospheric fields (sea level pressure, geopotential height, total column water content, wind components, 2m temperature). This study is part of the project ACASIS (https://acasis.locean-ipsl.upmc.fr/doku.php) on heat waves occurrences over the Sahel and their impact on health. Keywords: heat wave, Senegal, ACASIS.

The Sensitivity of WRF Daily Summertime Simulations over West Africa to Alternative Parameterizations. Part 1: African Wave Circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noble, Erik; Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew

2014-01-01

The performance of the NCAR Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) as a West African regional-atmospheric model is evaluated. The study tests the sensitivity of WRF-simulated vorticity maxima associated with African easterly waves to 64 combinations of alternative parameterizations in a series of simulations in September. In all, 104 simulations of 12-day duration during 11 consecutive years are examined. The 64 combinations combine WRF parameterizations of cumulus convection, radiation transfer, surface hydrology, and PBL physics. Simulated daily and mean circulation results are validated against NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and NCEP/Department of Energy Global Reanalysis 2. Precipitation is considered in a second part of this two-part paper. A wide range of 700-hPa vorticity validation scores demonstrates the influence of alternative parameterizations. The best WRF performers achieve correlations against reanalysis of 0.40-0.60 and realistic amplitudes of spatiotemporal variability for the 2006 focus year while a parallel-benchmark simulation by the NASA Regional Model-3 (RM3) achieves higher correlations, but less realistic spatiotemporal variability. The largest favorable impact on WRF-vorticity validation is achieved by selecting the Grell-Devenyi cumulus convection scheme, resulting in higher correlations against reanalysis than simulations using the Kain-Fritch convection. Other parameterizations have less-obvious impact, although WRF configurations incorporating one surface model and PBL scheme consistently performed poorly. A comparison of reanalysis circulation against two NASA radiosonde stations confirms that both reanalyses represent observations well enough to validate the WRF results. Validation statistics for optimized WRF configurations simulating the parallel period during 10 additional years are less favorable than for 2006.

Evaluating the fidelity of CMIP5 models in producing large-scale meteorological patterns over the Northwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lintner, B. R.; Loikith, P. C.; Pike, M.; Aragon, C.

2017-12-01

Climate change information is increasingly required at impact-relevant scales. However, most state-of-the-art climate models are not of sufficiently high spatial resolution to resolve features explicitly at such scales. This challenge is particularly acute in regions of complex topography, such as the Pacific Northwest of the United States. To address this scale mismatch problem, we consider large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs), which can be resolved by climate models and associated with the occurrence of local scale climate and climate extremes. In prior work, using self-organizing maps (SOMs), we computed LSMPs over the northwestern United States (NWUS) from daily reanalysis circulation fields and further related these to the occurrence of observed extreme temperatures and precipitation: SOMs were used to group LSMPs into 12 nodes or clusters spanning the continuum of synoptic variability over the regions. Here this observational foundation is utilized as an evaluation target for a suite of global climate models from the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Evaluation is performed in two primary ways. First, daily model circulation fields are assigned to one of the 12 reanalysis nodes based on minimization of the mean square error. From this, a bulk model skill score is computed measuring the similarity between the model and reanalysis nodes. Next, SOMs are applied directly to the model output and compared to the nodes obtained from reanalysis. Results reveal that many of the models have LSMPs analogous to the reanalysis, suggesting that the models reasonably capture observed daily synoptic states.

Deriving mass balance and calving variations from reanalysis data and sparse observations, Glaciar San Rafael, northern Patagonia, 1950-2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koppes, M.; Conway, H.; Rasmussen, L. A.; Chernos, M.

2011-04-01

Mass balance variations of Glaciar San Rafael, the most equatorial tidewater glacier in the North Patagonian Icefield, are reconstructed over the period 1950-2005 using NCEP-NCAR reanalysis climate data together with sparse, local historical observations of air temperature, precipitation, accumulation, ablation, thinning, calving, and glacier retreat. The combined observations over the past 50 yr indicate that Glaciar San Rafael has thinned and retreated since 1959, with a total mass loss of ~22 km3 of ice equivalent. Over that period, except for a short period of cooling from 1998-2003, the climate has become progressively warmer and drier, which has resulted primarily in pervasive thinning of the glacier surface and a decrease in calving rates, with only minor acceleration in retreat of the terminus. A comparison of calving fluxes derived from the mass balance variations and from theoretical calving and sliding laws suggest that calving rates are inversely correlated with retreat rates, and that terminus geometry is more important than changes in balance fluxes to the terminus in driving calving dynamics. For Glaciar San Rafael, regional climate warming has not yet resulted in the significant changes in glacier length seen in other calving glaciers in the region, emphasizing the complex dynamics between climate inputs, topographic constraints and glacier response in calving glacier systems.

The strength of the meridional overturning circulation of the stratosphere

PubMed Central

Linz, Marianna; Plumb, R. Alan; Gerber, Edwin P.; Haenel, Florian J.; Stiller, Gabriele; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Ming, Alison; Neu, Jessica L.

2017-01-01

The distribution of gases such as ozone and water vapour in the stratosphere — which affect surface climate — is influenced by the meridional overturning of mass in the stratosphere, the Brewer–Dobson circulation. However, observation-based estimates of its global strength are difficult to obtain. Here we present two calculations of the mean strength of the meridional overturning of the stratosphere. We analyze satellite data that document the global diabatic circulation between 2007– 2011, and compare these to three re-analysis data sets and to simulations with a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model. Using measurements of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) and nitrous oxide, we calculate the global mean diabatic overturning mass flux throughout the stratosphere. In the lower stratosphere, these two estimates agree, and at a potential temperature level of 460 K (about 20 km or 60 hPa in tropics), the global circulation strength is 6.3–7.6 × 109 kg/s. Higher in the atmosphere, only the SF6-based estimate is available, and it diverges from the re-analysis data and simulations. Interpretation of the SF6 data-based estimate is limited because of a mesospheric sink of SF6; however, the reanalyses also differ substantially from each other. We conclude that the uncertainty in the mean meridional overturning circulation strength at upper levels of the stratosphere amounts to at least 100 %. PMID:28966661

Classification and Feature Selection Algorithms for Modeling Ice Storm Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swaminathan, R.; Sridharan, M.; Hayhoe, K.; Dobbie, G.

2015-12-01

Ice storms account for billions of dollars of winter storm loss across the continental US and Canada. In the future, increasing concentration of human populations in areas vulnerable to ice storms such as the northeastern US will only exacerbate the impacts of these extreme events on infrastructure and society. Quantifying the potential impacts of global climate change on ice storm prevalence and frequency is challenging, as ice storm climatology is driven by complex and incompletely defined atmospheric processes, processes that are in turn influenced by a changing climate. This makes the underlying atmospheric and computational modeling of ice storm climatology a formidable task. We propose a novel computational framework that uses sophisticated stochastic classification and feature selection algorithms to model ice storm climatology and quantify storm occurrences from both reanalysis and global climate model outputs. The framework is based on an objective identification of ice storm events by key variables derived from vertical profiles of temperature, humidity and geopotential height. Historical ice storm records are used to identify days with synoptic-scale upper air and surface conditions associated with ice storms. Evaluation using NARR reanalysis and historical ice storm records corresponding to the northeastern US demonstrates that an objective computational model with standard performance measures, with a relatively high degree of accuracy, identify ice storm events based on upper-air circulation patterns and provide insights into the relationships between key climate variables associated with ice storms.

Observational evidence of seasonality in the timing of loop current eddy separation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, Cody A.; Leben, Robert R.

2016-12-01

Observational datasets, reports and analyses over the time period from 1978 through 1992 are reviewed to derive pre-altimetry Loop Current (LC) eddy separation dates. The reanalysis identified 20 separation events in the 15-year record. Separation dates are estimated to be accurate to approximately ± 1.5 months and sufficient to detect statistically significant LC eddy separation seasonality, which was not the case for previously published records because of the misidentification of separation events and their timing. The reanalysis indicates that previously reported LC eddy separation dates, determined for the time period before the advent of continuous altimetric monitoring in the early 1990s, are inaccurate because of extensive reliance on satellite sea surface temperature (SST) imagery. Automated LC tracking techniques are used to derive LC eddy separation dates in three different altimetry-based sea surface height (SSH) datasets over the time period from 1993 through 2012. A total of 28-30 LC eddy separation events were identified in the 20-year record. Variations in the number and dates of eddy separation events are attributed to the different mean sea surfaces and objective-analysis smoothing procedures used to produce the SSH datasets. Significance tests on various altimetry and pre-altimetry/altimetry combined date lists consistently show that the seasonal distribution of separation events is not uniform at the 95% confidence level. Randomization tests further show that the seasonal peak in LC eddy separation events in August and September is highly unlikely to have occurred by chance. The other seasonal peak in February and March is less significant, but possibly indicates two seasons of enhanced probability of eddy separation centered near the spring and fall equinoxes. This is further quantified by objectively dividing the seasonal distribution into two seasons using circular statistical techniques and a k-means clustering algorithm. The estimated spring and fall centers are March 2nd and August 23rd, respectively, with season boundaries in May and December.

Climate Simulations based on a different-grid nested and coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dan; Ji, Jinjun; Li, Yinpeng

2002-05-01

An atmosphere-vegetation interaction model (A VIM) has been coupled with a nine-layer General Cir-culation Model (GCM) of Institute of Atmospheic Physics/State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (IAP/LASG), which is rhomboidally truncated at zonal wave number 15, to simulate global climatic mean states. A VIM is a model having inter-feedback between land surface processes and eco-physiological processes on land. As the first step to couple land with atmosphere completely, the physiological processes are fixed and only the physical part (generally named the SVAT (soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer scheme) model) of AVIM is nested into IAP/LASG L9R15 GCM. The ocean part of GCM is prescribed and its monthly sea surface temperature (SST) is the climatic mean value. With respect to the low resolution of GCM, i.e., each grid cell having lon-gitude 7.5° and latitude 4.5°, the vegetation is given a high resolution of 1.5° by 1.5° to nest and couple the fine grid cells of land with the coarse grid cells of atmosphere. The coupling model has been integrated for 15 years and its last ten-year mean of outputs was chosen for analysis. Compared with observed data and NCEP reanalysis, the coupled model simulates the main characteris-tics of global atmospheric circulation and the fields of temperature and moisture. In particular, the simu-lated precipitation and surface air temperature have sound results. The work creates a solid base on coupling climate models with the biosphere.

Sensitivity of simulated South America Climate to the Land Surface Schemes in RegCM4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llopart, Marta; da Rocha, Rosmeri; Reboita, Michelle; Cuadra, Santiago

2017-04-01

This work evaluates the impact of two land surface parameterizations on the simulated climate and its variability over South America (SA). Two numerical experiments using RegCM4 coupled with Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (RegBATS) and Community Land Model version 3.5 (RegCLM) land surface schemes are compared. For the period 1979-2008, RegCM4 simulations used 50 km horizontal grid spacing and the ERA-Interim reanalysis as initial and boundary conditions. For the period studied, both simulations represent the main observed spatial patterns of rainfall, air temperature and low level circulation over SA. However, concerning the precipitation intensity, RegCLM values are closer to the observations than RegBATS (it is in general, wetter) over most of SA. RegCLM also provides smaller biases for air temperature. Over the Amazon basin, the amplitudes of the annual cycles of the soil moisture, evapotranspiration and sensible heat flux are higher in RegBATS than in RegCLM. This indicates that RegBATS provides large amounts of water vapor to the atmosphere and has more available energy to increase the boundary layer and make it reach the level of free convection (higher sensible heat flux values) resulting in higher precipitation rates and a large wet bias. RegCLM is closer to the observations than RegBATS, presenting smaller wet and warm biases over the Amazon basin. On an interannual scale, the magnitudes of the anomalies of the precipitation and air temperature simulated by RegCLM are closer to the observations. In general, RegBATS simulates higher magnitude for the interannual variability signal.

Factors affecting the simulated trajectory and intensification of Tropical Cyclone Yasi (2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, Chelsea L.; Lynch, Amanda H.; Mooney, Priscilla A.

2017-09-01

This study investigates the sensitivity of the simulated trajectory, intensification, and forward speed of Tropical Cyclone Yasi to initial conditions, physical parameterizations, and sea surface temperatures. Yasi was a category 5 storm that made landfall in Queensland, Australia in February 2011. A series of simulations were performed using WRF-ARW v3.4.1 driven by ERA-Interim data at the lateral boundaries. To assess these simulations, a new simple skill score is devised to summarize the deviation from observed conditions at landfall. The results demonstrate the sensitivity to initial condition resolution and the need for a new initialization dataset. Ensemble testing of physics parameterizations revealed strong sensitivity to cumulus schemes, with a trade-off between trajectory and intensity accuracy. The Tiedtke scheme produces an accurate trajectory evolution and landfall location. The Kain Fritch scheme is associated with larger errors in trajectory due to a less active shallow convection over the ocean, leading to warmer temperatures at the 700 mb level and a stronger, more poleward steering flow. However, the Kain Fritsch scheme produces more accurate intensities and translation speeds. Tiedtke-derived intensities were weaker due to suppression of deep convection by active shallow convection. Accurate representation of the sea surface temperature through correcting a newly discovered SST lag in reanalysis data or increasing resolution of SST data can improve the simulation. Higher resolution increases relative vorticity and intensity. However, the sea surface boundary had a more pronounced effect on the simulation with the Tiedtke scheme due to its moisture convergence trigger and active shallow convection over the tropical ocean.

The Hadley circulation: assessing NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and sparse in-situ estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waliser, D. E.; Shi, Zhixiong; Lanzante, J. R.; Oort, A. H.

We present a comparison of the zonal mean meridional circulations derived from monthly in situ data (i.e. radiosondes and ship reports) and from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis product. To facilitate the interpretation of the results, a third estimate of the mean meridional circulation is produced by subsampling the reanalysis at the locations where radiosonde and surface ship data are available for the in situ calculation. This third estimate, known as the subsampled estimate, is compared to the complete reanalysis estimate to assess biases in conventional, in situ estimates of the Hadley circulation associated with the sparseness of the data sources (i.e., radiosonde network). The subsampled estimate is also compared to the in situ estimate to assess the biases introduced into the reanalysis product by the numerical model, initialization process and/or indirect data sources such as satellite retrievals. The comparisons suggest that a number of qualitative differences between the in situ and reanalysis estimates are mainly associated with the sparse sampling and simplified interpolation schemes associated with in situ estimates. These differences include: (1) a southern Hadley cell that consistently extends up to 200 hPa in the reanalysis, whereas the bulk of the circulation for the in situ and subsampled estimates tends to be confined to the lower half of the troposphere, (2) more well-defined and consistent poleward limits of the Hadley cells in the reanalysis compared to the in-situ and subsampled estimates, and (3) considerably less variability in magnitude and latitudinal extent of the Ferrel cells and southern polar cell exhibited in the reanalysis estimate compared to the in situ and subsampled estimates. Quantitative comparison shows that the subsampled estimate, relative to the reanalysis estimate, produces a stronger northern Hadley cell ( 20%), a weaker southern Hadley cell ( 20-60%), and weaker Ferrel cells in both hemispheres. These differences stem from poorly measured oceanic regions which necessitate significant interpolation over broad regions. Moreover, they help to pinpoint specific shortcomings in the present and previous in situ estimates of the Hadley circulation. Comparisons between the subsampled and in situ estimates suggest that the subsampled estimate produces a slightly stronger Hadley circulation in both hemispheres, with the relative differences in some seasons as large as 20-30%. 6These differences suggest that the mean meridional circulation associated with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis is more energetic than observations suggest. Examination of ENSO-related changes to the Hadley circulation suggest that the in situ and subsampled estimates significantly overestimate the effects of ENSO on the Hadley circulation due to the reliance on sparsely distributed data. While all three estimates capture the large-scale region of low-level equatorial convergence near the dateline that occurs during El Nino, the in situ and subsampled estimates fail to effectively reproduce the large-scale areas of equatorial mass divergence to the west and east of this convergence area, leading to an overestimate of the effects of ENSO on the zonal mean circulation.

Validation of solar radiation surfaces from MODIS and reanalysis data over topographically complex terrain

Treesearch

Todd A. Schroeder; Robbie Hember; Nicholas C. Coops; Shunlin Liang

2009-01-01

The magnitude and distribution of incoming shortwave solar radiation (SW) has significant influence on the productive capacity of forest vegetation. Models that estimate forest productivity require accurate and spatially explicit radiation surfaces that resolve both long- and short-term temporal climatic patterns and that account for topographic variability of the land...

Response of near-surface currents in the Indian Ocean to the anomalous atmospheric condition in 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utari, P. A.; Nurkhakim, M. Y.; Setiabudidaya, D.; Iskandar, I.

2018-05-01

Anomalous ocean-atmosphere conditions were detected in the tropical Indian Ocean during boreal spring to boreal winter 2015. It was suggested that the anomalous conditions were characteristics of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) event. The purpose of this investigation was to investigate the response of near-surface currents in the tropical Indian Ocean to the anomalous atmospheric condition in 2015. Near-surface current from OSCAR (Ocean Surface Current Analyses Real Time) reanalysis data combined with the sea surface temperature (SST) data from OISST – NOAA, sea surface height (SSH) and surface winds from the ECMWF were used in this investigation. The analysis showed that the evolution of 2015 pIOD started in June/July, peaked in the September and terminated in late November 2015. Correlated with the evolution of the pIOD, easterly winds anomalies were detected along the equator. As the oceanic response to these easterly wind anomalies, the surface currents anomalously westward during the peak of the pIOD. It was interesting to note that the evolution of 2015 pIOD event was closely related to the ocean wave dynamics as revealed by the SSH data. Downwelling westward propagating Rossby waves were detected in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean. Once reached the western boundary of the Indian Ocean, they were redirected back into interior Indian Ocean and propagating eastward as the downwelling Kelvin waves.

Representation of solar tides in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere in state-of-the-art reanalyses and in satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakazaki, Takatoshi; Fujiwara, Masatomo; Shiotani, Masato

2018-02-01

Atmospheric solar tides in the stratosphere and the lower mesosphere are investigated using temperature data from five state-of-the-art reanalysis data sets (MERRA-2, MERRA, JRA-55, ERA-Interim, and CFSR) as well as TIMED SABER and Aura MLS satellite measurements. The main focus is on the period 2006-2012 during which the satellite observations are available for direct comparison with the reanalyses. Diurnal migrating tides, semidiurnal migrating tides, and nonmigrating tides are diagnosed. Overall the reanalyses agree reasonably well with each other and with the satellite observations for both migrating and nonmigrating components, including their vertical structure and the seasonality. However, the agreement among reanalyses is more pronounced in the lower stratosphere and relatively weaker in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. A systematic difference between SABER and the reanalyses is found for diurnal migrating tides in the upper stratosphere and the lower mesosphere; specifically, the amplitude of trapped modes in reanalyses is significantly smaller than that in SABER, although such difference is less clear between MLS and the reanalyses. The interannual variability and the possibility of long-term changes in migrating tides are also examined using the reanalyses during 1980-2012. All the reanalyses agree in exhibiting a clear quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the tides, but the most significant indications of long-term changes in the tides represented in the reanalyses are most plausibly explained by the evolution of the satellite observing systems during this period. The tides are also compared in the full reanalyses produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency (i.e., JRA-55) and in two parallel data sets from this agency: one (JRA-55C) that repeats the reanalysis procedure but without any satellite data assimilated and one (JRA-55AMIP) that is a free-running integration of the model constrained only by observed sea surface temperatures. Many aspects of the tides are closer in JRA-55C and JRA-55AMIP than these are to the full reanalysis JRA-55, demonstrating the importance of the assimilation of satellite data in representing the diurnal variability of the middle atmosphere. In contrast to the assimilated data sets, the free-running model has no QBO in equatorial stratospheric mean circulation and our results show that it displays no quasi-biennial variability in the tides.

Using multi-year reanalysis-derived recharge rates to drive a groundwater model for the Lake Tana region of Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dokou, Z.; Kheirabadi, M.; Nikolopoulos, E. I.; Moges, S. A.; Bagtzoglou, A. C.; Anagnostou, E. N.

2017-12-01

Ethiopia's high inter-annual variability in local precipitation has resulted in droughts and floods that stress local communities and lead to economic and food insecurity. Better predictions of water availability can supply farmers and water management authorities with critical guidance, enabling informed water resource allocation and management decisions that will in turn ensure food and water security in the region. The work presented here focuses on the development and calibration of a groundwater model of the Lake Tana region, one of the most important sub-basins of the Blue Nile River Basin. Groundwater recharge, which is the major groundwater source in the area, depends mainly on the seasonality of precipitation and the spatial variation in geology. Given that land based precipitation data are sparse in the region, two approaches for estimating groundwater recharge were used and compared that both utilize global atmospheric reanalysis driven by remote sensing datasets. In the first approach, the reanalysis precipitation dataset (ECMWF reanalysis adjusted based on GPCC) together with evapotranspiration and surface run-off estimates are used to calculate the groundwater recharge component using water budget equations. In the second approach, groundwater recharge estimates (subsurface runoff) are taken directly from a Land Surface model (FLDAS Noah), provided at a monthly time scale and 0.1˚ x 0.1˚ spatial resolution. The reanalysis derived recharge rates in both cases are incorporated into the groundwater model MODFLOW, which in combination with a Lake module that simulates the Lake water budget, offers a unique capability of improving the predictability of groundwater and lake levels in the Lake Tana basin. Model simulations using the two approaches are compared against in-situ observations of groundwater and lake levels. This modeling effort can be further used to explore climate variability effects on groundwater and lake levels and provide guidance to governments and development agencies for more efficient management of the water resources of this important region. Acknowledgment: This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 1545874.

Observed surface wind speed declining induced by urbanization in East China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhengquan; Song, Lili; Ma, Hao; Xiao, Jingjing; Wang, Kuo; Chen, Lian

2018-02-01

Monthly wind data from 506 meteorological stations and ERA-Interim reanalysis during 1991-2015, are used to examine the surface wind trend over East China. Furthermore, combining the urbanization information derived from the DMSP/OLS nighttime light data during 1992-2013, the effects of urbanization on surface wind change are investigated by applying the observation minus reanalysis (OMR) method. The results show that the observed surface wind speed over East China is distinctly weakening with a rate of -0.16 m s-1 deca-1 during 1991-2015, while ERA-Interim wind speed does not have significant decreasing or increasing trend in the same period. The observed surface wind declining is mainly attributed to underlying surface changes of stations observational areas that were mostly induced by the urbanization in East China. Moreover, the wind declining intensity is closely related to the urbanization rhythms. The OMR annual surface wind speeds of Rhythm-VS, Rhythm-S, Rhythm-M, Rhythm-F and Rhythm-VF, have decreasing trends with the rates of -0.02 to -0.09, -0.16 to -0.26, -0.22 to -0.30, -0.26 to -0.36 and -0.33 to -0.51 m s-1 deca-1, respectively. The faster urbanization rhythm is, the stronger wind speed weakening presents. Additionally urban expansion is another factor resulted in the observed surface wind declining.

Mapping the Historical Probability of Increased Flood Hazard During ENSO Events Using a New 20th Century River Flow Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emerton, R.; Cloke, H. L.; Stephens, L.; Woolnough, S. J.; Zsoter, E.; Pappenberger, F.

2016-12-01

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a mode of variability which sees fluctuations between anomalously high or low sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, is known to influence river flow and flooding at the global scale. The anticipation and forecasting of floods is crucial for flood preparedness, and this link, alongside the predictive skill of ENSO up to seasons ahead, may provide an early indication of upcoming severe flood events. Information is readily available indicating the likely impacts of El Niño and La Niña on precipitation across the globe, which is often used as a proxy for flood hazard. However, the nonlinearity between precipitation and flood magnitude and frequency means that it is important to assess the impact of ENSO events not only on precipitation, but also on river flow and flooding. Historical probabilities provide key information regarding the likely impacts of ENSO events. We estimate, for the first time, the historical probability of increased flood hazard during El Niño and La Niña through a global hydrological analysis, using a new 20thCentury ensemble river flow reanalysis for the global river network. This dataset was produced by running the ECMWF ERA-20CM atmospheric reanalysis through a research set-up of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) using the CaMa-Flood hydrodynamic model, to produce a 110-year global reanalysis of river flow. We further evaluate the added benefit of the hydrological analysis over the use of precipitation as a proxy for flood hazard. For example, providing information regarding regions that are likely to experience a lagged influence on river flow compared to the influence on precipitation. Our results map, at the global scale, the probability of abnormally high river flow during any given month during an El Niño or La Niña; information such as this is key for organisations that work at the global scale, such as humanitarian aid organisations, providing a seasons-ahead indicator of potential increased flood hazard that can be used as soon as the event onset is declared, or even earlier, when El Niño or La Niña conditions are first predicted.

A Method for Snow Reanalysis: The Sierra Nevada (USA) Example

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Girotto, Manuela; Margulis, Steven; Cortes, Gonzalo; Durand, Michael

2017-01-01

This work presents a state-of-the art methodology for constructing snow water equivalent (SWE) reanalysis. The method is comprised of two main components: (1) a coupled land surface model and snow depletion curve model, which is used to generate an ensemble of predictions of SWE and snow cover area for a given set of (uncertain) inputs, and (2) a reanalysis step, which updates estimation variables to be consistent with the satellite observed depletion of the fractional snow cover time series. This method was applied over the Sierra Nevada (USA) based on the assimilation of remotely sensed fractional snow covered area data from the Landsat 5-8 record (1985-2016). The verified dataset (based on a comparison with over 9000 station years of in situ data) exhibited mean and root-mean-square errors less than 3 and 13 cm, respectively, and correlation greater than 0.95 compared with in situ SWE observations. The method (fully Bayesian), resolution (daily, 90-meter), temporal extent (31 years), and accuracy provide a unique dataset for investigating snow processes. This presentation illustrates how the reanalysis dataset was used to provide a basic accounting of the stored snowpack water in the Sierra Nevada over the last 31 years and ultimately improve real-time streamflow predictions.

Impact of surface processes and climate variability on clumped isotope thermometry of soil carbonates, southern Central Andes, Argentina (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntington, K. W.; Peters, N.; Roe, G.; Hoke, G. D.; Eiler, J.

2010-12-01

Soil carbonates archive a potentially rich record of past climate, but rates of pedogenic carbonate formation, erosion, and deposition impact how the isotopic composition and formation temperature of carbonate-bearing paleosols reflect the local environmental conditions under which they form. We investigate these processes using conventional stable isotope (δ18O and δ13C) and clumped isotope thermometry data for Quaternary pedogenic carbonates from the southern Central Andes at ~33°S, Argentina. The study area spans over 2 km of relief in the Río Mendoza and Río de las Cuevas valleys, accessing a range of mean annual temperature conditions and vegetative cover and exhibiting large seasonal variations in temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture. Variations in soil conditions influence carbonate precipitation and dissolution reactions and the rate and depth of pedogenic carbonate formation. Because soil temperature varies predictably as a function of depth in the soil and seasonal and secular variations in air temperature, clumped isotope thermometry of samples collected in soil pits offers a direct way to estimate the seasonality of pedogenic carbonate formation and potential biases in the long-term climate record. We explore potential complications due to the effects of radiative solar heating on the relationship between air and soil temperatures by examining clumped isotope thermometry results in the context of site-to-site variations in vegetative cover. Temperature estimates from clumped isotope thermometry of pedogenic carbonate collected 5-110 cm below geomorphically stable soil surfaces from 1200-3400 m a.s.l. are compared to temperature profiles predicted by simple rule-based models of soil carbonate formation. The models use climate reanalysis daily diagnostic data (soil temperature, soil moisture, and latent heat flux as a proxy for evaporation) and weather station data as input to assess how varying rates of pedogenic carbonate formation integrated over millennial timescales might impact the geologic record of temperature and isotopic composition.

Effects of in-situ and reanalysis climate data on estimation of cropland gross primary production using the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, Cui; Xiao, Xiangming; Wagle, Pradeep

2015-11-01

Satellite-based Production Efficiency Models (PEMs) often require meteorological reanalysis data such as the North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as model inputs to simulate Gross Primary Production (GPP) at regional and global scales. This study first evaluated the accuracies of air temperature (TNARR) and downward shortwave radiation (RNARR) of the NARR by comparing with in-situ meteorological measurements at 37 AmeriFlux non-crop eddy flux sites, then used one PEM – the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM) to simulate 8-day mean GPP (GPPVPM) at seven AmeriFlux crop sites, and investigated the uncertainties in GPPVPM from climatemore » inputs as compared with eddy covariance-based GPP (GPPEC). Results showed that TNARR agreed well with in-situ measurements; RNARR, however, was positively biased. An empirical linear correction was applied to RNARR, and significantly reduced the relative error of RNARR by ~25% for crop site-years. Overall, GPPVPM calculated from the in-situ (GPPVPM(EC)), original (GPPVPM(NARR)) and adjusted NARR (GPPVPM(adjNARR)) climate data tracked the seasonality of GPPEC well, albeit with different degrees of biases. GPPVPM(EC) showed a good match with GPPEC for maize (Zea mays L.), but was slightly underestimated for soybean (Glycine max L.). Replacing the in-situ climate data with the NARR resulted in a significant overestimation of GPPVPM(NARR) (18.4/29.6% for irrigated/rainfed maize and 12.7/12.5% for irrigated/rainfed soybean). GPPVPM(adjNARR) showed a good agreement with GPPVPM(EC) for both crops due to the reduction in the bias of RNARR. The results imply that the bias of RNARR introduced significant uncertainties into the PEM-based GPP estimates, suggesting that more accurate surface radiation datasets are needed to estimate primary production of terrestrial ecosystems at regional and global scales.« less

The warmer the ocean surface, the shallower the mixed layer. How much of this is true?

PubMed Central

González‐Pola, C.; Fernández‐Diaz, J.

2017-01-01

Abstract Ocean surface warming is commonly associated with a more stratified, less productive, and less oxygenated ocean. Such an assertion is mainly based on consistent projections of increased near‐surface stratification and shallower mixed layers under global warming scenarios. However, while the observed sea surface temperature (SST) is rising at midlatitudes, the concurrent ocean record shows that stratification is not unequivocally increasing nor is MLD shoaling. We find that while SST increases at three study areas at midlatitudes, stratification both increases and decreases, and MLD deepens with enhanced deepening of winter MLDs at rates over 10 m  decade−1. These results rely on the estimation of several MLD and stratification indexes of different complexity on hydrographic profiles from long‐term hydrographic time‐series, ocean reanalysis, and Argo floats. Combining this information with estimated MLDs from buoyancy fluxes and the enhanced deepening/attenuation of the winter MLD trends due to changes in the Ekman pumping, MLD variability involves a subtle interplay between circulation and atmospheric forcing at midlatitudes. Besides, it is highlighted that the density difference between the surface and 200 m, the most widely used stratification index, should not be expected to reliably inform about changes in the vertical extent of mixing. PMID:29201584

The warmer the ocean surface, the shallower the mixed layer. How much of this is true?

PubMed

Somavilla, R; González-Pola, C; Fernández-Diaz, J

2017-09-01

Ocean surface warming is commonly associated with a more stratified, less productive, and less oxygenated ocean. Such an assertion is mainly based on consistent projections of increased near-surface stratification and shallower mixed layers under global warming scenarios. However, while the observed sea surface temperature (SST) is rising at midlatitudes, the concurrent ocean record shows that stratification is not unequivocally increasing nor is MLD shoaling. We find that while SST increases at three study areas at midlatitudes, stratification both increases and decreases, and MLD deepens with enhanced deepening of winter MLDs at rates over 10 m  decade-1. These results rely on the estimation of several MLD and stratification indexes of different complexity on hydrographic profiles from long-term hydrographic time-series, ocean reanalysis, and Argo floats. Combining this information with estimated MLDs from buoyancy fluxes and the enhanced deepening/attenuation of the winter MLD trends due to changes in the Ekman pumping, MLD variability involves a subtle interplay between circulation and atmospheric forcing at midlatitudes. Besides, it is highlighted that the density difference between the surface and 200 m, the most widely used stratification index, should not be expected to reliably inform about changes in the vertical extent of mixing.

NASA GEOS-3/TRMM Re-analysis: Capturing Observed Tropical Rainfall Variability in Global Analysis for Climate Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hou, Arthur Y.

2004-01-01

Understanding climate variability over a wide range of space-time scales requires a comprehensive description of the earth system. Global analyses produced by a fixed assimilation system (i.e., re-analyses) - as their quality continues to improve - have the potential of providing a vital tool for meeting this challenge. But at the present time, the usefulness of re-analyses is limited by uncertainties in such basic fields as clouds, precipitation, and evaporation - especially in the tropics, where observations are relatively sparse. Analyses of the tropics have long been shown to be sensitive to. the treatment of cloud precipitation processes, which remains a major source of uncertainty in current models. Yet, for many climate studies it is crucial that analyses can accurately reproduce the observed rainfall intensity and variability since a small error of 1 mm/d in surface rain translates into an error of approx. 30 W/sq m in energy (latent heat) flux. Currently, discrepancies between the observed and analyzed monthly-mean rain rates averaged to 100 km x 100 km resolution can exceed 4 mm/d (or 120 W/sq m ), compared to uncertainties in surface radiative fluxes of approx. 10-20 W/sq m . Improving precipitation in analyses would reduce a major source of uncertainty in the global energy budget. Uncertainties in tropical precipitation have also been a major impediment in understanding how the tropics interact with other regions, including the remote response to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on interannual time scales, the influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and monsoons on intraseasonal time scales. A global analysis that can replicate the observed precipitation variability together with physically consistent estimates of other atmospheric variables provides the key to breaking this roadblock. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of satellite-based microwave rainfall measurements in improving global analyses and has recently produced a multi-year, 1 x 1 TRMM re-analysis , which assimilates 6-hourly TMI and SSM/I surface rain rates over tropical oceans using a ID variational continuous assimilation (VCA) procedure in the GEOS-3 global data assimilation system. The analysis period extends from 1 November 1997 through 3 1 December 2002. The goal is to produce a multi-year global analysis that is dynamically consistent with available tropical precipitation observations for the community to assess its utility in climate applications and identify areas for further improvements. A distinct feature of the GEOS-3RRMh4 re-analysis is that its precipitation analysis is not derived from a short-term forecast (as done in most operational systems) but is given by a time- continuous model integration constrained by precipitation observations within a 6-h analysis window, while the wind, temperature, and pressure fields are allowed to directly respond to the improved precipitation and associated latent heating structures within the same analysis window. In this talk, I will assess the impact VCA precipitation assimilation on analyses of climate signals ranging from a few weeks to interannual time scales and compare results against other operational and reanalysis products.

Decadal prediction skill in the ocean with surface nudging in the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mignot, Juliette; García-Serrano, Javier; Swingedouw, Didier; Germe, Agathe; Nguyen, Sébastien; Ortega, Pablo; Guilyardi, Eric; Ray, Sulagna

2016-08-01

Two decadal prediction ensembles, based on the same climate model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) and the same surface nudging initialization strategy are analyzed and compared with a focus on upper-ocean variables in different regions of the globe. One ensemble consists of 3-member hindcasts launched every year since 1961 while the other ensemble benefits from 9 members but with start dates only every 5 years. Analysis includes anomaly correlation coefficients and root mean square errors computed against several reanalysis and gridded observational fields, as well as against the nudged simulation used to produce the hindcasts initial conditions. The last skill measure gives an upper limit of the predictability horizon one can expect in the forecast system, while the comparison with different datasets highlights uncertainty when assessing the actual skill. Results provide a potential prediction skill (verification against the nudged simulation) beyond the linear trend of the order of 10 years ahead at the global scale, but essentially associated with non-linear radiative forcings, in particular from volcanoes. At regional scale, we obtain 1 year in the tropical band, 10 years at midlatitudes in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and 5 years at tropical latitudes in the North Atlantic, for both sea surface temperature (SST) and upper-ocean heat content. Actual prediction skill (verified against observational or reanalysis data) is overall more limited and less robust. Even so, large actual skill is found in the extratropical North Atlantic for SST and in the tropical to subtropical North Pacific for upper-ocean heat content. Results are analyzed with respect to the specific dynamics of the model and the way it is influenced by the nudging. The interplay between initialization and internal modes of variability is also analyzed for sea surface salinity. The study illustrates the importance of two key ingredients both necessary for the success of future coordinated decadal prediction exercises, a high frequency of start dates is needed to achieve robust statistical significance, and a large ensemble size is required to increase the signal to noise ratio.

Ocean Monitoring Indicators for the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry derived from a high-resolution reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solidoro, Cosimo; Cossarini, Gianpiero; Bolzon, Giorgio; Salon, Stefano; Teruzzi, Anna; Lazzari, Paolo; Crise, Alessandro

2017-04-01

In recent years the interest in multi-decadal reanalyses of the status of the Mediterranean marine ecosystem has been rising constantly, also in light of the need of information for a proper implementation of European directives (e.g. MSFD). State-of-art reanalyses of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry - being an optimal integration of multi-platforms data and numerical models - constitute an extremely relevant source of information in evaluating the ecosystem status at basin and sub-basin scale. Furthermore, they provide highly valuable data to be used as boundary conditions for local studies. The objective of this work is to produce sensible environmental indicators useful to characterize the environmental status of the Mediterranean starting from an upgraded high-resolution reanalysis of Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry delivered in the frame of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Services (CMEMS). The reanalysis was qualified by a comparison against several available data sets, in terms of the main surface and sub-surface biogeochemical essential climate variables (chlorophyll, carbon dioxide partial pressure, ocean acidity, nutrients, oxygen). The reanalysis outputs reproduced spatial patterns, seasonal cycle and inter-annual variability of the assessed variables, allowing for a proper description of recent trends and present status of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry. Our results confirm the vision of the Mediterranean as a mainly oligotrophic ecosystem with the presence of significant biogeochemical gradients from the eastern to the western sub-basins (e.g. in chlorophyll, nutrients, primary production). Our reanalysis can be used to contribute estimating eutrophication MFSD descriptors, atmospheric carbon sequestration fluxes, first assessment of potential resources available for the higher trophic levels and more. Indeed, the reanalysis data set provides a suitable basis for the estimation of the so-called Ocean Monitoring Indicators (OMIs) and Essential Biogeochemical Variables (EBVs), developed within CMEMS for the Ocean State Report. Some of the OMIs that have been proposed so far for the Mediterranean biogeochemistry include indicators describing: the influence of physical forcing on ecosystem (e.g. mixed layer depth); the basic ecosystem status, functioning and changes (e.g. nutrient concentration, oxygen content, chlorophyll and their variability at monthly/seasonal/annual/decadal scale); the ecosystem health (e.g. anoxia indicators, N/P ratio); the relation of ocean ecosystem with fisheries (e.g. integrated primary production, phyto/zooplankton biomasses) and climate change (e.g. acidification, CO2 fluxes). Recent results in the Mediterranean Sea OMIs investigation will be widely discussed in our contribution.

Effects of Temperature and Air Density Profiles on Ozone Lidar Retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirgis, G.; Langford, A. O.; Senff, C. J.; Alvarez, R. J. _II, II

2017-12-01

The recent reduction in the primary U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone (O3) from 75 to 70 parts-per-billion by volume (ppbv) adds urgency to the need for better understanding of the processes that control ground-level concentrations in the United States. While ground-based in situ sensors are capable of measuring ozone levels, they don't give any insight into upper air transport and mixing. Differential absorption lidars such as the NOAA/ESRL Tunable Optical Profiler for Aerosol and oZone (TOPAZ) measure continuous vertical ozone profiles with high spatial and temporal resolution. However, the retrieved ozone mixing ratios depend on the temperature and air density profiles used in the analysis. This study analyzes the ozone concentrations for seven field campaigns from 2013 to 2016 to evaluate the impact of the assumed pressure and temperature profiles on the ozone mixing ratio retrieval. Pressure and temperature profiles from various spatial and temporal resolution models (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis, Rapid Refresh, and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) are compared to reference ozone profiles created with pressure and temperature profiles from ozonesondes launched close to the TOPAZ measurement site. The results show significant biases with respect to time of day and season, altitude, and location of the model-extracted profiles. Limitations and advantages of all datasets used will also be discussed.

Atmospheric response to Saharan dust deduced from ECMWF reanalysis (ERA) temperature increments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishcha, P.; Alpert, P.; Barkan, J.; Kirchner, I.; Machenhauer, B.

2003-09-01

This study focuses on the atmospheric temperature response to dust deduced from a new source of data the European Reanalysis (ERA) increments. These increments are the systematic errors of global climate models, generated in the reanalysis procedure. The model errors result not only from the lack of desert dust but also from a complex combination of many kinds of model errors. Over the Sahara desert the lack of dust radiative effect is believed to be a predominant model defect which should significantly affect the increments. This dust effect was examined by considering correlation between the increments and remotely sensed dust. Comparisons were made between April temporal variations of the ERA analysis increments and the variations of the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer aerosol index (AI) between 1979 and 1993. The distinctive structure was identified in the distribution of correlation composed of three nested areas with high positive correlation (>0.5), low correlation and high negative correlation (<-0.5). The innermost positive correlation area (PCA) is a large area near the center of the Sahara desert. For some local maxima inside this area the correlation even exceeds 0.8. The outermost negative correlation area (NCA) is not uniform. It consists of some areas over the eastern and western parts of North Africa with a relatively small amount of dust. Inside those areas both positive and negative high correlations exist at pressure levels ranging from 850 to 700 hPa, with the peak values near 775 hPa. Dust-forced heating (cooling) inside the PCA (NCA) is accompanied by changes in the static instability of the atmosphere above the dust layer. The reanalysis data of the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) suggest that the PCA (NCA) corresponds mainly to anticyclonic (cyclonic) flow, negative (positive) vorticity and downward (upward) airflow. These findings are associated with the interaction between dust-forced heating/cooling and atmospheric circulation. This paper contributes to a better understanding of dust radiative processes missed in the model.

Comparison of Malaria Simulations Driven by Meteorological Observations and Reanalysis Products in Senegal.

PubMed

Diouf, Ibrahima; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Deme, Abdoulaye; Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andrew P; Cisse, Moustapha; Sy, Ibrahima; Dia, Ibrahima; Ermert, Volker; Ndione, Jacques-André; Gaye, Amadou Thierno

2017-09-25

The analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of climate parameters is crucial to study the impact of climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases such as malaria. The use of malaria models is an alternative way of producing potential malaria historical data for Senegal due to the lack of reliable observations for malaria outbreaks over a long time period. Consequently, here we use the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM), driven by different climatic datasets, in order to study and validate simulated malaria parameters over Senegal. The findings confirm that the risk of malaria transmission is mainly linked to climate variables such as rainfall and temperature as well as specific landscape characteristics. For the whole of Senegal, a lag of two months is generally observed between the peak of rainfall in August and the maximum number of reported malaria cases in October. The malaria transmission season usually takes place from September to November, corresponding to the second peak of temperature occurring in October. Observed malaria data from the Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme (PNLP, National Malaria control Programme in Senegal) and outputs from the meteorological data used in this study were compared. The malaria model outputs present some consistencies with observed malaria dynamics over Senegal, and further allow the exploration of simulations performed with reanalysis data sets over a longer time period. The simulated malaria risk significantly decreased during the 1970s and 1980s over Senegal. This result is consistent with the observed decrease of malaria vectors and malaria cases reported by field entomologists and clinicians in the literature. The main differences between model outputs and observations regard amplitude, but can be related not only to reanalysis deficiencies but also to other environmental and socio-economic factors that are not included in this mechanistic malaria model framework. The present study can be considered as a validation of the reliability of reanalysis to be used as inputs for the calculation of malaria parameters in the Sahel using dynamical malaria models.

Relationship between glacier melting and atmospheric circulation in the southeast Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osipova, O. P.; Osipov, E. Y.

2018-01-01

The interaction between climate and cryosphere is a key issue in recent years. Changes in surface mass balance of mountain glaciers closely correspond to differential changes in atmospheric circulation. Mountain glaciers in southeast Siberia located on East Sayan, Baikalsky and Kodar ridges have been continuously shrinking since the end of the Little Ice Age. In this study we used daily synoptic weather maps (Irkutsk Center of Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring), 500 hPa, 700 hPa and 850 hPa geopotential height and air temperature data of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis to assess relationships between atmospheric circulation patterns and the sum of positive temperature (SPT), a predictor of summer ice/snow ablation. Results show that increased SPT (ablation) is generally associated with anticyclones and anticyclonic pressure fields (with cloudless weather conditions) and warm atmospheric fronts. Decreased SPT (ablation) is strongly correlated with cyclones and cyclonic type pressure fields, cold atmospheric fronts and air advections. Significant correlations have been found between ablation and cyclonic/anticyclonic activity. Revealed decreasing trends in the SPT in three glaciarized ridges at the beginning of the 21st century led to changes of air temperature and snow/ice melt climates.

Effective Use Of Scatterometer Winds In Current and Future GMAO Reanalysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chattopadhyay, Mohar; McCarty, Will

2017-01-01

Scatterometer-derived near-surface ocean vector wind retrievals provide global measurements complementary to the sparse conventional observing system which primarily consists of ships and buoys over water surfaces. The RapidScat instrument was flown on the International Space Station as a quick and low cost replacement of QuikScat and as a continuation of the NASA scatterometry data record. A unique characteristic of RapidScat was that it flew in a non-sun synchronous orbit at an inclination of 51.6 degrees. This orbit allowed for the collocation of measurements with other scatterometers as well as an ability to sample diurnal signals. In the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis, the scatterometry record began with the ESA European Remote Sensing (ERS) scatterometer on 5 Aug 1991 and continued through today with the EUMETSAT Metop Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT). RapidScat, however, was not used in the MERRA-2 system as development had been completed prior to the beginning of its data record. In this presentation, the RapidScat ocean vector winds will be compared to MERRA-2, both in terms of the analysis fields and in the context of its global observing system, to assess the viability of using the data in future reanalysis systems developed by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

Predicting decadal trends in cloud droplet number concentration using reanalysis and satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCoy, Daniel T.; Bender, Frida A.-M.; Grosvenor, Daniel P.; Mohrmann, Johannes K.; Hartmann, Dennis L.; Wood, Robert; Field, Paul R.

2018-02-01

Cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) is the key state variable that moderates the relationship between aerosol and the radiative forcing arising from aerosol-cloud interactions. Uncertainty related to the effect of anthropogenic aerosol on cloud properties represents the largest uncertainty in total anthropogenic radiative forcing. Here we show that regionally averaged time series of the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observed CDNC of low, liquid-topped clouds is well predicted by the MERRA2 reanalysis near-surface sulfate mass concentration over decadal timescales. A multiple linear regression between MERRA2 reanalyses masses of sulfate (SO4), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), sea salt (SS), and dust (DU) shows that CDNC across many different regimes can be reproduced by a simple power-law fit to near-surface SO4, with smaller contributions from BC, OC, SS, and DU. This confirms previous work using a less sophisticated retrieval of CDNC on monthly timescales. The analysis is supported by an examination of remotely sensed sulfur dioxide (SO2) over maritime volcanoes and the east coasts of North America and Asia, revealing that maritime CDNC responds to changes in SO2 as observed by the ozone monitoring instrument (OMI). This investigation of aerosol reanalysis and top-down remote-sensing observations reveals that emission controls in Asia and North America have decreased CDNC in their maritime outflow on a decadal timescale.

West Florida shelf circulation and temperature budget for the 1999 spring transition

USGS Publications Warehouse

He, Ruoying; Weisberg, Robert H.

2002-01-01

Mid-latitude continental shelves undergo a spring transition as the net surface heat flux changes from cooling to warming. Using in situ data and a numerical circulation model we investigate the circulation and temperature budget on the West Florida Continental Shelf (WFS) for the spring transition of 1999. The model is a regional adaptation of the primitive equation, Princeton Ocean Model forced by NCEP reanalysis wind and heat flux fields and by river inflows. Based on agreements between the modeled and observed fields we use the model to draw inferences on how the surface momentum and heat fluxes affect the seasonal and synoptic scale variability. We account for a strong southeastward current at mid-shelf by the baroclinic response to combined wind and buoyancy forcing, and we show how this local forcing leads to annually occurring cold and low salinity tongues. Through term-by-term analyses of the temperature budget we describe the WFS temperature evolution in spring. Heat flux largely controls the seasonal transition, whereas ocean circulation largely controls the synoptic scale variability. These two processes, however, are closely linked. Bottom topography and coastline geometry are important in generating regions of convergence and divergence. Rivers contribute to the local hydrography and are important ecologically. Along with upwelling, river inflows facilitate frontal aggregation of nutrients and the spring formation of a high concentration chlorophyll plume near the shelf break (the so-called ‘Green River’) coinciding with the cold, low salinity tongues. These features originate by local, shelf-wide forcing; the Loop Current is not an essential ingredient.

Comparison of regional and seasonal changes and trends in daily surface temperature extremes over India and its subregions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimri, A. P.

2018-04-01

Regional changes in surface meteorological variables are one of the key issues affecting the Indian subcontinent especially in recent decades. These changes impact agriculture, health, water, etc., hence important to assess and investigate these changes. The Indian subcontinent is characterized by heterogeneous temperature regimes at regional and seasonal scales. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) observations are limited to recent decades as far as its spatial distribution is concerned. In particular, over Hilly region, these observations are sporadic. Due to variable topography and heterogeneous land use/land cover, it is complex to substantiate impacts. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim (ERA-I) reanalysis not only covers a larger spatial domain but also provides a greater number of inputs than IMD. This study used ERA-I in conjunction with IMD gridded data to provide a comparative assessment of changing temperature patterns over India and its subregions at both regional and seasonal scales. Warming patterns are observed in both ERA-I and IMD data sets. Cold nights decrease during winter; warm days increase and warm spell duration increased during winter could become a cause of concern for society, agriculture, socio-economic reasons, and health. Increasing warm days over the hilly regions may affect the corresponding snow cover and thus river hydrology and glaciological dynamics. Such changes during monsoon are slower, which could be attributed to moisture availability to dampen the temperature changes. On investigation and comparison thereon, the present study provisions usages of ERA-I-based indices for various impact and adaptation studies.

Regime-Dependent Differences in Surface Freshwater Exchange Estimates Over the Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Sun; Behrangi, Ali

2018-01-01

Differences in gridded precipitation (P), surface evaporation (E), and the resultant surface freshwater exchange (P - E) among different products over the ocean are diagnosed as functions of moisture advection (Qadvt) and moisture tendency by dynamical convergence (Qcnvg). Compared to the GPCP product, the TRMM3B42 product captures higher frequency of precipitation with larger extreme precipitation rates in regimes of deep convection and more light rain detections in regimes of frequent occurrence of boundary layer clouds. Discrepancies in E depend on moisture flux divergence, with the OAFlux product having the largest E in regimes of divergence. Discrepancies in mean P - E in deep convective regimes are highly influenced by differences in precipitation, with the TRMM3B42 product yielding P - E histograms closer to those inferred from the reanalysis moisture flux convergence. In nonconvergent regimes, observation-based P - E histograms skew toward positive values while the inferred reanalysis histograms are symmetric about the means.

Influence of changing surface temperature gradients on mid-latitudinal circulation and western hemispheric summer temperature extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kornhuber, Kai; Hoffmann, Peter; Coumou, Dim

2017-04-01

Many recent summers in the Northern hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes have seen severe heatwaves (2003, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2015, (Black et al. 2004; Diffenbaugh & Scherer 2013; Russo et al. 2014; Hoy et al. 2016)). During many of those extremes the mid-latitudinal tropospheric circulation was characterized by an amplified, quasi-stationary and hemispheric wave pattern with a dominant influence of wavenumber seven (Coumou et al. 2014; Petoukhov et al. 2016; Kornhuber et al. 2016). Analyzing NH summer reanalysis data we show that the position where these heat extremes occur is not arbitrary. If the amplitude of wave seven is large, the wave gets "locked" in a specific preferred phase position. As a consequence of this phase-locking behavior some regions are more likely to experience extreme weather during high-amplitude events. Meridional wind speeds associated with the preferred phase are particularly strong over longitudes of the western hemisphere (180°W - 40°E) leading to positive temperature anomalies over the US and Western Europe. Using a widely-used blocking-index we demonstrate that longitudes over these regions experience an increased probability of blocking during high amplitude wave seven events. We show that during the above mentioned extreme summers, amplified waves were locked in their preferred phase-position creating the right dynamical background condition for severe heatwaves to occur. Further, regression analyses reveal that a pronounced Ocean - Land temperature contrast (Tdiff) and weak poleward surface temperature gradient (dT/dy) are associated with an amplified wave seven in its preferred phase-position. Our study suggests that the observed positive trend in Tdiff and negative trend in dT/dy favors the occurrence of high-amplitude, quasi-stationary wave seven in its preferred phase position and therefore persistent heatwaves in the US and western Europe.

Simulation of a Severe Autumn/Winter Drought in Eastern China by Regional Atmospheric Modeling System(RAMS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Chunchun; Ma, Yaoming

2016-04-01

Compared with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-interim) Reanalysis data and Global Summary Of Day (GSOD) observation data, the outcomes from RAMS of the 2008/2009 severe autumn/winter drought in eastern china are analyzed in this study. The reanalysis data showed that most parts of north China are controlled by northwest wind which was accompanied by cold air, the warm and moist air from South Sea is so weak to meet with cold air, therefore forming a circulation which is unfavorable for the formation of precipitation over Eastern China. RAMS performs very well over the simulation of this atmospheric circulation, so do the rainfall and air temperature over China and where the drought occurred. Meanwhile, the simulation of the time series of precipitation and temperature behaves excellent, the square of correlation coefficient between simulations and observations reached above 0.8. Although the performance of RAMS on this drought simulation is fairly accurate, there is amount of research work to be continued to complete a more realistic simulation. KEY WORDS RAMS; severe drought; numerical simulation; atmospheric circulation; precipitation and air temperature

Sensitivity of Spacebased Microwave Radiometer Observations to Ocean Surface Evaporation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Timothy W.; Li, Li

2000-01-01

Ocean surface evaporation and the latent heat it carries are the major components of the hydrologic and thermal forcing on the global oceans. However, there is practically no direct in situ measurements. Evaporation estimated from bulk parameterization methods depends on the quality and distribution of volunteer-ship reports which are far less than satisfactory. The only way to monitor evaporation with sufficient temporal and spatial resolutions to study global environment changes is by spaceborne sensors. The estimation of seasonal-to-interannual variation of ocean evaporation, using spacebased measurements of wind speed, sea surface temperature (SST), and integrated water vapor, through bulk parameterization method,s was achieved with reasonable success over most of the global ocean, in the past decade. Because all the three geophysical parameters can be retrieved from the radiance at the frequencies measured by the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on Nimbus-7, the feasibility of retrieving evaporation directly from the measured radiance was suggested and demonstrated using coincident brightness temperatures observed by SMMR and latent heat flux computed from ship data, in the monthly time scale. However, the operational microwave radiometers that followed SMMR, the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I), lack the low frequency channels which are sensitive to SST. This low frequency channels are again included in the microwave imager (TMI) of the recently launched Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM). The radiance at the frequencies observed by both TMI and SSM/I were simulated through an atmospheric radiative transfer model using ocean surface parameters and atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles produced by the reanalysis of the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). From the same ECMWF data set, coincident evaporation is computed using a surface layer turbulent transfer model. The sensitivity of the radiance to evaporation over various seasons and geographic locations are examined. The microwave frequencies with radiance that are significant correlated with evaporation are identify and capability of estimating evaporation directly from TMI will be discussed.

The Thermal Circulation on Kilimanjaro, Tanzania and its Relevance to Summit Ice-Field Mass Balance.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pepin, N. C.; Duane, W. J.

2008-12-01

It is well known that mountains create their own climates. On Kilimanjaro, which is the tallest free standing mountain in Africa, the intense tropical sunlight generates a strong diurnal mountain circulation which transports moisture up the mountain during the day and back downslope at night. This process has strong consequences for development of cloud cover, precipitation, and hence ice-field mass balance on the summit crater. We compare surface climate (temperature, moisture and wind) measured at ten elevations on Kilimanjaro, with equivalent observations in the free atmosphere from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for September 2004 to July 2008. There are no simple temporal trends over this period in either surface of free- air data. Correlations between daily surface and free air temperatures are greatest below 2500 metres, meaning that synoptic (inter-diurnal) variability is the major control here. In contrast, temperatures and moisture on the higher slopes above treeline (about 3000 m) are strongly decoupled from the free atmosphere, showing intense heating/cooling by day/night (more than 5°C). The sparsely vegetated upper slopes are the focus for the most intense heating and upslope winds develop by mid-morning. The forest on the lower slopes acts as a moisture source, with large vapour pressure excesses reported (5 mb) which move upslope reaching the crater in the afternoon before subsiding downslope at night. The montane thermal circulation is more effective at upslope moisture transport during January as compared with July. Fluctuations in upper air flow strength and direction (at 500 mb) surprisingly have limited influence on the strength of surface heating and upslope moisture advection. This finding suggests that local changes in surface characteristics such as deforestation could have a strong influence on the mountain climate and the summit ice fields on Kilimanjaro, and make mass-balance somewhat divorced from larger-scale advective changes associated with global warming.

Quantifying the Terrestrial Surface Energy Fluxes Using Remotely-Sensed Satellite Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siemann, Amanda Lynn

The dynamics of the energy fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere drive local and regional climate and are paramount to understand the past, present, and future changes in climate. Although global reanalysis datasets, land surface models (LSMs), and climate models estimate these fluxes by simulating the physical processes involved, they merely simulate our current understanding of these processes. Global estimates of the terrestrial, surface energy fluxes based on observations allow us to capture the dynamics of the full climate system. Remotely-sensed satellite data is the source of observations of the land surface which provide the widest spatial coverage. Although net radiation and latent heat flux global, terrestrial, surface estimates based on remotely-sensed satellite data have progressed, comparable sensible heat data products and ground heat flux products have not progressed at this scale. Our primary objective is quantifying and understanding the terrestrial energy fluxes at the Earth's surface using remotely-sensed satellite data with consistent development among all energy budget components [through the land surface temperature (LST) and input meteorology], including validation of these products against in-situ data, uncertainty assessments, and long-term trend analysis. The turbulent fluxes are constrained by the available energy using the Bowen ratio of the un-constrained products to ensure energy budget closure. All final products are within uncertainty ranges of literature values, globally. When validated against the in-situ estimates, the sensible heat flux estimates using the CFSR air temperature and constrained with the products using the MODIS albedo produce estimates closest to the FLUXNET in-situ observations. Poor performance over South America is consistent with the largest uncertainties in the energy budget. From 1984-2007, the longwave upward flux increase due to the LST increase drives the net radiation decrease, and the decrease in the available energy balances the decrease in the sensible heat flux. These datasets are useful for benchmarking climate models and LSM output at the global annual scale and the regional scale subject to the regional uncertainties and performance. Future work should improve the input data, particularly the temperature gradient and Zilitinkevich empirical constant, to reduce uncertainties.

Variability of Coastal and Ocean Water Temperature in the Upper 700 m along the Western Iberian Peninsula from 1975 to 2006

PubMed Central

Santos, Fran; Gómez-Gesteira, Moncho; deCastro, Maite; Álvarez, Inés

2012-01-01

Temperature is observed to have different trends at coastal and ocean locations along the western Iberian Peninsula from 1975 to 2006, which corresponds to the last warming period in the area under study. The analysis was carried out by means of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA). Reanalysis data are available at monthly scale with a horizontal resolution of 0.5°×0.5° and a vertical resolution of 40 levels, which allows obtaining information beneath the sea surface. Only the first 21 vertical levels (from 5.0 m to 729.35 m) were considered here, since the most important changes in heat content observed for the world ocean during the last decades, correspond to the upper 700 m. Warming was observed to be considerably higher at ocean locations than at coastal ones. Ocean warming ranged from values on the order of 0.3°C dec−1 near surface to less than 0.1°C dec−1 at 500 m, while coastal warming showed values close to 0.2°C dec−1 near surface, decreasing rapidly below 0.1°C dec−1 for depths on the order of 50 m. The heat content anomaly for the upper 700 m, showed a sharp increase from coast (0.46 Wm−2) to ocean (1.59 Wm−2). The difference between coastal and ocean values was related to the presence of coastal upwelling, which partially inhibits the warming from surface of near shore water. PMID:23226533

NHM-SMAP: spatially and temporally high-resolution nonhydrostatic atmospheric model coupled with detailed snow process model for Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niwano, Masashi; Aoki, Teruo; Hashimoto, Akihiro; Matoba, Sumito; Yamaguchi, Satoru; Tanikawa, Tomonori; Fujita, Koji; Tsushima, Akane; Iizuka, Yoshinori; Shimada, Rigen; Hori, Masahiro

2018-02-01

To improve surface mass balance (SMB) estimates for the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), we developed a 5 km resolution regional climate model combining the Japan Meteorological Agency Non-Hydrostatic atmospheric Model and the Snow Metamorphism and Albedo Process model (NHM-SMAP) with an output interval of 1 h, forced by the Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA-55). We used in situ data to evaluate NHM-SMAP in the GrIS during the 2011-2014 mass balance years. We investigated two options for the lower boundary conditions of the atmosphere: an offline configuration using snow, firn, and ice albedo, surface temperature data from JRA-55, and an online configuration using values from SMAP. The online configuration improved model performance in simulating 2 m air temperature, suggesting that the surface analysis provided by JRA-55 is inadequate for the GrIS and that SMAP results can better simulate physical conditions of snow/firn/ice. It also reproduced the measured features of the GrIS climate, diurnal variations, and even a strong mesoscale wind event. In particular, it successfully reproduced the temporal evolution of the GrIS surface melt area extent as well as the record melt event around 12 July 2012, at which time the simulated melt area extent reached 92.4 %. Sensitivity tests showed that the choice of calculation schemes for vertical water movement in snow and firn has an effect as great as 200 Gt year-1 in the GrIS-wide accumulated SMB estimates; a scheme based on the Richards equation provided the best performance.

Observational estimation of radiative feedback to surface air temperature over Northern High Latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, Jiwon; Choi, Yong-Sang; Kim, WonMoo; Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.

2018-01-01

The high-latitude climate system contains complicated, but largely veiled physical feedback processes. Climate predictions remain uncertain, especially for the Northern High Latitudes (NHL; north of 60°N), and observational constraint on climate modeling is vital. This study estimates local radiative feedbacks for NHL based on the CERES/Terra satellite observations during March 2000-November 2014. The local shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative feedback parameters are calculated from linear regression of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere on surface air temperatures. These parameters are estimated by the de-seasonalization and 12-month moving average of the radiative fluxes over NHL. The estimated magnitudes of the SW and the LW radiative feedbacks in NHL are 1.88 ± 0.73 and 2.38 ± 0.59 W m-2 K-1, respectively. The parameters are further decomposed into individual feedback components associated with surface albedo, water vapor, lapse rate, and clouds, as a product of the change in climate variables from ERA-Interim reanalysis estimates and their pre-calculated radiative kernels. The results reveal the significant role of clouds in reducing the surface albedo feedback (1.13 ± 0.44 W m-2 K-1 in the cloud-free condition, and 0.49 ± 0.30 W m-2 K-1 in the all-sky condition), while the lapse rate feedback is predominant in LW radiation (1.33 ± 0.18 W m-2 K-1). However, a large portion of the local SW and LW radiative feedbacks were not simply explained by the sum of these individual feedbacks.

Decadal variations in atmospheric water vapor time series estimated using GNSS, ERA-Interim, and synoptic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alshawaf, Fadwa; Dick, Galina; Heise, Stefan; Balidakis, Kyriakos; Schmidt, Torsten; Wickert, Jens

2017-04-01

Ground-based GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Systems) have efficiently been used since the 1990s as a meteorological observing system. Recently scientists used GNSS time series of precipitable water vapor (PWV) for climate research although they may not be sufficiently long. In this work, we compare the trend estimated from GNSS time series with that estimated from European Center for Medium-RangeWeather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data and meteorological measurements.We aim at evaluating climate evolution in Central Europe by monitoring different atmospheric variables such as temperature and PWV. PWV time series were obtained by three methods: 1) estimated from ground-based GNSS observations using the method of precise point positioning, 2) inferred from ERA-Interim data, and 3) determined based on daily surface measurements of temperature and relative humidity. The other variables are available from surface meteorological stations or received from ERA-Interim. The PWV trend component estimated from GNSS data strongly correlates (>70%) with that estimated from the other data sets. The linear trend is estimated by straight line fitting over 30 years of seasonally-adjusted PWV time series obtained using the meteorological measurements. The results show a positive trend in the PWV time series with an increase of 0.2-0.7 mm/decade with a mean standard deviations of 0.016 mm/decade. In this paper, we present the results at three GNSS stations. The temporal increment of the PWV correlates with the temporal increase in the temperature levels.

Arctic Amplification and the Northward shift of a new Greenland melting record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tedesco, Marco; Mote, Thomas; Fettweis, Xavier; Hanna, Edward; Booth, James; Jeyaratnam, Jeyavinoth; Datta, Rajashree; Briggs, Kate

2016-04-01

Large-scale atmospheric circulation controls the mass and energy balance of the Greenland ice sheet through its impact on radiative budget, runoff and accumulation. Using reanalysis data and the outputs of a regional climate model, here we show that the persistence of an exceptional atmospheric ridge, centred over the Arctic Ocean was responsible for a northward shift of surface melting records over Greenland, and for increased accumulation in the south during the summer of 2015. Concurrently, new records of mean monthly zonal winds at 500 hPa and of the maximum latitude of ridge peaks of the 5700±50 m isohypse over the Arctic were also set. An unprecedented (1948 - 2015) and sustained jet stream easterly flow promoted enhanced runoff, increased surface temperatures and decreased albedo in northern Greenland, while inhibiting melting in the south. The exceptional 2015 summer Arctic atmospheric conditions are consistent with the anticipated effects of Arctic Amplification, including slower zonal winds and increased jet stream wave amplitude. Properly addressing the impact of Arctic Amplification on surface runoff of the Greenland ice sheet is crucial for rigorously quantifying its contribution to current and future sea level rise, and the relative impact of freshwater discharge on the surrounding ocean.

The Unprecedented 2016-2017 Arctic Sea Ice Growth Season: The Crucial Role of Atmospheric Rivers and Longwave Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegyi, Bradley M.; Taylor, Patrick C.

2018-05-01

The 2016-2017 Arctic sea ice growth season (October-March) exhibited one of the lowest values for end-of-season sea ice volume and extent of any year since 1979. An analysis of Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 atmospheric reanalysis data and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System radiative flux data reveals that a record warm and moist Arctic atmosphere supported the reduced sea ice growth. Numerous regional episodes of increased atmospheric temperature and moisture, transported from lower latitudes, increased the cumulative energy input from downwelling longwave surface fluxes. In those same episodes, the efficiency of the atmosphere cooling radiatively to space was reduced, increasing the amount of energy retained in the Arctic atmosphere and reradiated back toward the surface. Overall, the Arctic radiative cooling efficiency shows a decreasing trend since 2000. The results presented highlight the increasing importance of atmospheric forcing on sea ice variability demonstrating that episodic Arctic atmospheric rivers, regions of elevated poleward water vapor transport, and the subsequent surface energy budget response is a critical mechanism actively contributing to the evolution of Arctic sea ice.

Assessing Air-Sea Interaction in the Evolving NASA GEOS Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clayson, Carol Anne; Roberts, J. Brent

2015-01-01

In order to understand how the climate responds to variations in forcing, one necessary component is to understand the full distribution of variability of exchanges of heat and moisture between the atmosphere and ocean. Surface heat and moisture fluxes are critical to the generation and decay of many coupled air-sea phenomena. These mechanisms operate across a number of scales and contain contributions from interactions between the anomalous (i.e. non-mean), often extreme-valued, flux components. Satellite-derived estimates of the surface turbulent and radiative heat fluxes provide an opportunity to assess results from modeling systems. Evaluation of only time mean and variability statistics, however only provides limited traceability to processes controlling what are often regime-dependent errors. This work will present an approach to evaluate the representation of the turbulent fluxes at the air-sea interface in the current and evolving Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model. A temperature and moisture vertical profile-based clustering technique is used to identify robust weather regimes, and subsequently intercompare the turbulent fluxes and near-surface parameters within these regimes in both satellite estimates and GEOS-driven data sets. Both model reanalysis (MERRA) and seasonal-to-interannual coupled GEOS model simulations will be evaluated. Particular emphasis is placed on understanding the distribution of the fluxes including extremes, and the representation of near-surface forcing variables directly related to their estimation. Results from these analyses will help identify the existence and source of regime-dependent biases in the GEOS model ocean surface turbulent fluxes. The use of the temperature and moisture profiles for weather-state clustering will be highlighted for its potential broad application to 3-D output typical of model simulations.

The Eurasia-North Pacific Oscillation in atmospheric mass variations independent of both IHO and AO and its possible impacts on winter climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qian; Guan, Zhaoyong; Li, Minggang

2018-06-01

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, we have investigated the features of migrations of atmospheric mass (AM) between land and ocean in Eurasia-North Pacific domain in boreal winter after having both signals of Inter-hemispheric Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation removed from the physical quantities. It is found that there is a Eurasia-North Pacific Oscillation (ENPO) in surface air pressure anomalies. This ENPO pattern characterizes with two oppositely signed anomalous surface pressure centers over Eurasia and North Pacific respectively, indicating strong connections between Siberian high and Aleutian low during period 1979-2012. The maintenance of this ENPO teleconnection is significantly associated with three factors including the anomalous AM flows and zonal circulation cell over Eurasia-North Pacific domain, the Rossby wave energy propagations, and the thermal forcing contrasts near the surface between Eurasia and North Pacific during boreal winter. The variations of both wintertime rainfall and temperature over Eurasia may be strongly affected by ENPO. When the ENPO index is positive (negative), there occurs the AM accumulation (depletion) over Eurasia with simultaneous depletion (accumulation) over mid-latitude North-Pacific. Correspondingly, this anomalous surface pressure pattern along with the related circulation anomalies at different isobaric levels possibly results in winter precipitation decreases (increases) over Siberian Plain and East China, whereas increases (decreases) over southeastern Europe, Xinjiang of China, and the west coast of Sea of Okhotsk. On the other hand, surface air temperature decreases (increases) over large areas of Eurasia. These results are helpful for our better understanding the mechanisms behind circulation and winter climate variations over Eurasia-North Pacific region.

Assessing air-sea interaction in the evolving NASA GEOS model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clayson, C. A.; Roberts, J. B.

2014-12-01

In order to understand how the climate responds to variations in forcing, one necessary component is to understand the full distribution of variability of exchanges of heat and moisture between the atmosphere and ocean. Surface heat and moisture fluxes are critical to the generation and decay of many coupled air-sea phenomena. These mechanisms operate across a number of scales and contain contributions from interactions between the anomalous (i.e. non-mean), often extreme-valued, flux components. Satellite-derived estimates of the surface turbulent and radiative heat fluxes provide an opportunity to assess results from modeling systems. Evaluation of only time mean and variability statistics, however only provides limited traceability to processes controlling what are often regime-dependent errors. This work will present an approach to evaluate the representation of the turbulent fluxes at the air-sea interface in the current and evolving Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model. A temperature and moisture vertical profile-based clustering technique is used to identify robust weather regimes, and subsequently intercompare the turbulent fluxes and near-surface parameters within these regimes in both satellite estimates and GEOS-driven data sets. Both model reanalysis (MERRA) and seasonal-to-interannual coupled GEOS model simulations will be evaluated. Particular emphasis is placed on understanding the distribution of the fluxes including extremes, and the representation of near-surface forcing variables directly related to their estimation. Results from these analyses will help identify the existence and source of regime-dependent biases in the GEOS model ocean surface turbulent fluxes. The use of the temperature and moisture profiles for weather-state clustering will be highlighted for its potential broad application to 3-D output typical of model simulations.

Simulated convective systems using a cloud resolving model: Impact of large-scale temperature and moisture forcing using observations and GEOS-3 reanalysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shie, C.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Hou, A.; Lin, X.

2006-01-01

The GCE (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble) model, which has been developed and improved at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center over the past two decades, is considered as one of the finer and state-of-the-art CRMs (Cloud Resolving Models) in the research community. As the chosen CRM for a NASA Interdisciplinary Science (IDS) Project, GCE has recently been successfully upgraded into an MPI (Message Passing Interface) version with which great improvement has been achieved in computational efficiency, scalability, and portability. By basically using the large-scale temperature and moisture advective forcing, as well as the temperature, water vapor and wind fields obtained from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) field experiments such as SCSMEX (South China Sea Monsoon Experiment) and KWAJEX (Kwajalein Experiment), our recent 2-D and 3-D GCE simulations were able to capture detailed convective systems typical of the targeted (simulated) regions. The GEOS-3 [Goddard EOS (Earth Observing System) Version-3] reanalysis data have also been proposed and successfully implemented for usage in the proposed/performed GCE long-term simulations (i.e., aiming at producing massive simulated cloud data -- Cloud Library) in compensating the scarcity of real field experimental data in both time and space (location). Preliminary 2-D or 3-D pilot results using GEOS-3 data have generally showed good qualitative agreement (yet some quantitative difference) with the respective numerical results using the SCSMEX observations. The first objective of this paper is to ensure the GEOS-3 data quality by comparing the model results obtained from several pairs of simulations using the real observations and GEOS-3 reanalysis data. The different large-scale advective forcing obtained from these two kinds of resources (i.e., sounding observations and GEOS-3 reanalysis) has been considered as a major critical factor in producing various model results. The second objective of this paper is therefore to investigate and present such an impact of large-scale forcing on various modeled quantities (such as hydrometeors, rainfall, and etc.). A third objective is to validate the overall GCE 3-D model performance by comparing the numerical results with sounding observations, as well as available satellite retrievals.

The northern annular mode in summer and its relation to solar activity variations in the GISS ModelE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae N.; Hameed, Sultan; Shindell, Drew T.

2008-03-01

The northern annular mode (NAM) has been successfully used in several studies to understand the variability of the winter atmosphere and its modulation by solar activity. The variability of summer circulation can also be described by the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of geopotential heights. We compare the annular modes of the summer geopotential heights in the northern hemisphere stratosphere and troposphere in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE with those in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more "summer-like" when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The temperature fluctuations in simulated solar minimum conditions are greater than in solar maximum throughout the summer stratosphere. The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum variability over the Asian monsoon region. The corresponding EOF in ModelE has a qualitatively similar structure but with less variability in the Asian monsoon region which is displaced eastward of its observed position. In both the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the GCM the negative anomalies associated with the NAM in the Euro-Atlantic and Aleutian island regions are enhanced in the solar minimum conditions, though the results are not statistically significant.

Upper-air model of summer balance on Mount Rainier, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, L. A.; Wenger, J. M.

In 2003-07 summer balance was measured at altitudes between 1700 and 3382 m a.s.l. on two glaciers on Mount Rainier, Washington State, USA (46.85° N, 121.72° W; 4400 m a.s.l.): south-facing Nisqually Glacier and east-northeast-facing Emmons Glacier. Upper-air temperatures at the nearest gridpoint in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis database are used in a distributed (over altitude) positive-degree-day (PDD) model. For each glacier the model used the same coefficients at all altitudes, for all years. The rms model error was 0.65 (r2 = 0.87) and 0.78 m a-1 w.e. (r2 = 0.93) for Nisqually and Emmons Glaciers, respectively. Although PDD work generally uses different coefficients for snow and ice surfaces, and the duration of exposure of those surfaces varies with altitude, error in this single-coefficient model is nearly uncorrelated with altitude. Values of coefficients obtained are within the range of those found in other PDD work. The degree-day coefficient, however, differs markedly between the two glaciers, and is shown to be controlled by the difference between them in vertical gradient of measured summer balance. It is smaller for Nisqually Glacier, where solar radiation is a stronger contributor to melt; and larger for Emmons Glacier, where it is a weaker contributor. Over 1948-2007, when the model calibrated over 2003-07 was applied to the upper-air temperatures, estimated summer balance was ˜0.4 m a-1 less negative over 1962-83 than before and ˜0.6 m a-1 less negative than after, corresponding roughly with changes of the northeast Pacific sea-surface temperatures.

Sensitivity of simulated South America climate to the land surface schemes in RegCM4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llopart, Marta; da Rocha, Rosmeri P.; Reboita, Michelle; Cuadra, Santiago

2017-12-01

This work evaluates the impact of two land surface parameterizations on the simulated climate and its variability over South America (SA). Two numerical experiments using RegCM4 coupled with the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (RegBATS) and the Community Land Model version 3.5 (RegCLM) land surface schemes are compared. For the period 1979-2008, RegCM4 simulations used 50 km horizontal grid spacing and the ERA-Interim reanalysis as initial and boundary conditions. For the period studied, both simulations represent the main observed spatial patterns of rainfall, air temperature and low level circulation over SA. However, with regard to the precipitation intensity, RegCLM values are closer to the observations than RegBATS (it is wetter in general) over most of SA. RegCLM also produces smaller biases for air temperature. Over the Amazon basin, the amplitudes of the annual cycles of the soil moisture, evapotranspiration and sensible heat flux are higher in RegBATS than in RegCLM. This indicates that RegBATS provides large amounts of water vapor to the atmosphere and has more available energy to increase the boundary layer thickness and cause it to reach the level of free convection (higher sensible heat flux values) resulting in higher precipitation rates and a large wet bias. RegCLM is closer to the observations than RegBATS, presenting smaller wet and warm biases over the Amazon basin. On an interannual scale, the magnitudes of the anomalies of the precipitation and air temperature simulated by RegCLM are closer to the observations. In general, RegBATS simulates higher magnitude for the interannual variability signal.

Land surface temperature over global deserts: Means, variability, and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Chunlüe; Wang, Kaicun

2016-12-01

Land surface air temperature (LSAT) has been a widely used metric to study climate change. Weather observations of LSAT are the fundamental data for climate change studies and provide key evidence of global warming. However, there are very few meteorological observations over deserts due to their uninhabitable environment. This study fills this gap and provides independent evidence using satellite-derived land surface temperatures (LSTs), benefiting from their global coverage. The frequency of clear sky from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST data over global deserts was found to be greater than 94% for the 2002-2015 period. Our results show that MODIS LST has a bias of 1.36°C compared to ground-based observations collected at 31 U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) stations, with a standard deviation of 1.83°C. After bias correction, MODIS LST was used to evaluate existing reanalyses, including ERA-Interim, Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), MERRA-land, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-R1, and NCEP-R2. The reanalyses accurately reproduce the seasonal cycle and interannual variability of the LSTs, but their multiyear means and trends of LSTs exhibit large uncertainties. The multiyear averaged LST over global deserts is 23.5°C from MODIS and varies from 20.8°C to 24.5°C in different reanalyses. The MODIS LST over global deserts increased by 0.25°C/decade from 2002 to 2015, whereas the reanalyses estimated a trend varying from -0.14 to 0.10°C/decade. The underestimation of the LST trend by the reanalyses occurs for approximately 70% of the global deserts, likely due to the imperfect performance of the reanalyses in reproducing natural climate variability.

Decadal climate simulations using the Climate Forecast System (CFS) coupled to the SSiB2 land surface model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Sales, F.; Xue, Y.; Marx, L.; Ek, M. B.

2016-12-01

The Simplified Simple Biophysical version 2 (SSiB2) model was implemented in the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) for two 30-yr simulations. One simulation was initialized from CFS reanalysis data (EXP1), and the other from a 10-yr spin-up run (EXP2), in which the ocean model was allowed to run freely while the atmosphere and land surface were maintained constant to adjust inconsistencies in the initial conditions. EXP2 also includes an update in the SSiB2's average soil water potential calculation. The material presented highlights the model's performance in predicting spatial and temporal variability of monthly precipitation and surface temperature and aims at determining the optimum configuration for longer simulations. In general, the model is able to reproduce the main features of large-scale precipitation, with spatial correlation (scorr) and RMSE of 0.8 and 1.4 mm day-1, respectively. A split ITCZ pattern is observed in the Pacific and Indian oceans, which results in dry biases along the equator and wet-bias bands to its north and south. Positive biases are also observed in the Atlantic ITCZ. The model generates consistent surface temperature climatology (scorr > 0.9, RMSE= 2.3°C). Warm biases are observed especially over southern Asia during summer. Both experiments produce similar precipitation climatology patterns with similar biases. EXP2, however, improves the temperature simulation by reducing the global bias by 48% and 26% during boreal winter and summer, respectively; and improves the temperature decadal variability for many areas. Moreover, EXP2 generates a better continental surface air warming trend. In the attempt to improve the precipitation decadal variability in the simulations, remotely-sensed LAI and vegetation cover fraction have been implemented in the CFS/SSiB2 to substitute the look-up table originally used in EXP1 and 2. The satellite vegetation data has been processed into global monthly maps which are continuous updated throughout the simulation. Results from this experiment will also be presented.

Regarding retrievals of methane in the atmosphere from IASI/Metop spectra and their comparison with ground-based FTIR measurements data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khamatnurova, M. Yu.; Gribanov, K. G.; Zakharov, V. I.; Rokotyan, N. V.; Imasu, R.

2017-11-01

The algorithm for atmospheric methane distribution retrieval in atmosphere from IASI spectra has been developed. The feasibility of Levenberg-Marquardt method for atmospheric methane total column amount retrieval from the spectra measured by IASI/METOP modified for the case of lack of a priori covariance matrices for methane vertical profiles is studied in this paper. Method and algorithm were implemented into software package together with iterative estimation of a posteriori covariance matrices and averaging kernels for each individual retrieval. This allows retrieval quality selection using the properties of both types of matrices. Methane (XCH4) retrieval by Levenberg-Marquardt method from IASI/METOP spectra is presented in this work. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data provided by ESRL (NOAA, Boulder, USA) were taken as initial guess. Surface temperature, air temperature and humidity vertical profiles are retrieved before methane vertical profile retrieval. The data retrieved from ground-based measurements at the Ural Atmospheric Station and data of L2/IASI standard product were used for the verification of the method and results of methane retrieval from IASI/METOP spectra.

Subtropical Low Cloud Responses to Central and Eastern Pacific El Nino Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rapp, A. D.; Bennartz, R.; Jiang, J. H.; Kato, S.; Olson, W. S.; Pinker, R. T.; Su, H.; Taylor, P. C.

2014-12-01

The eastern Pacific El Niño event in 2006-2007 and the central Pacific El Niño event during 2009-2010 exhibit opposite responses in the top of atmosphere (TOA) cloud radiative effects. These responses are driven by differences in large-scale circulation that result in significant low cloud anomalies in the subtropical southeastern Pacific. Both the vertical profile of cloud fraction and cloud water content are reduced during the eastern Pacific El Niño; however, the shift in the distribution of cloud characteristics and the physical processes underlying these changes need further analysis. The NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) Clouds and Radiation Working Group will use a synthesis of NEWS data products, A-Train satellite measurements, reanalysis, and modeling approaches to further explore the differences in the low cloud response to changes in the large-scale forcing, as well as try to understand the physical mechanism driving the observed changes in the low clouds for the 2006/07 and 2009/10 distinct El Niño events. The distributions of cloud macrophysical, microphysical, and radiative properties over the southeast Pacific will first be compared for these two events using a combination of MODIS, CloudSat/CALIPSO, and CERES data. Satellite and reanalysis estimates of changes in the vertical temperature and moisture profiles, lower tropospheric stability, winds, and surface heat fluxes are then used to identify the drivers for observed differences in the clouds and TOA radiative effects.

Spatial variability of the Black Sea surface temperature from high resolution modeling and satellite measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizyuk, Artem; Senderov, Maxim; Korotaev, Gennady

2016-04-01

Large number of numerical ocean models were implemented for the Black Sea basin during last two decades. They reproduce rather similar structure of synoptical variability of the circulation. Since 00-s numerical studies of the mesoscale structure are carried out using high performance computing (HPC). With the growing capacity of computing resources it is now possible to reconstruct the Black Sea currents with spatial resolution of several hundreds meters. However, how realistic these results can be? In the proposed study an attempt is made to understand which spatial scales are reproduced by ocean model in the Black Sea. Simulations are made using parallel version of NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean). A two regional configurations with spatial resolutions 5 km and 2.5 km are described. Comparison of the SST from simulations with two spatial resolutions shows rather qualitative difference of the spatial structures. Results of high resolution simulation are compared also with satellite observations and observation-based products from Copernicus using spatial correlation and spectral analysis. Spatial scales of correlations functions for simulated and observed SST are rather close and differs much from satellite SST reanalysis. Evolution of spectral density for modelled SST and reanalysis showed agreed time periods of small scales intensification. Using of the spectral analysis for satellite measurements is complicated due to gaps. The research leading to this results has received funding from Russian Science Foundation (project № 15-17-20020)

The Impact of the Atlantic Cold Tongue on West African Monsoon Onset in Regional Model Simulations for 1998-2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew B.

2014-01-01

The Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) develops during spring and early summer near the Equator in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Guinea. The hypothesis that the ACT accelerates the timing of West African monsoon (WAM) onset is tested by comparing two regional climate model (RM3) simulation ensembles. Observed sea surface temperatures (SST) that include the ACT are used to force a control ensemble. An idealized, warm SST perturbation is designed to represent lower boundary forcing without the ACT for the experiment ensemble. Summer simulations forced by observed SST and reanalysis boundary conditions for each of five consecutive years are compared to five parallel runs forced by SST with the warm perturbation. The article summarizes the sequence of events leading to the onset of the WAM in the Sahel region. The representation of WAM onset in RM3 simulations is examined and compared to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and reanalysis data. The study evaluates the sensitivity of WAM onset indicators to the presence of the ACT by analysing the differences between the two simulation ensembles. Results show that the timing of major rainfall events and therefore theWAM onset in the Sahel are not sensitive to the presence of the ACT. However, the warm SST perturbation does increase downstream rainfall rates over West Africa as a consequence of enhanced specific humidity and enhanced northward moisture flux in the lower troposphere.

Three-dimensional constrained variational analysis: Approach and application to analysis of atmospheric diabatic heating and derivative fields during an ARM SGP intensive observational period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Shuaiqi; Zhang, Minghua

2015-08-01

Atmospheric vertical velocities and advective tendencies are essential large-scale forcing data to drive single-column models (SCMs), cloud-resolving models (CRMs), and large-eddy simulations (LESs). However, they cannot be directly measured from field measurements or easily calculated with great accuracy. In the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM), a constrained variational algorithm (1-D constrained variational analysis (1DCVA)) has been used to derive large-scale forcing data over a sounding network domain with the aid of flux measurements at the surface and top of the atmosphere (TOA). The 1DCVA algorithm is now extended into three dimensions (3DCVA) along with other improvements to calculate gridded large-scale forcing data, diabatic heating sources (Q1), and moisture sinks (Q2). Results are presented for a midlatitude cyclone case study on 3 March 2000 at the ARM Southern Great Plains site. These results are used to evaluate the diabatic heating fields in the available products such as Rapid Update Cycle, ERA-Interim, National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Japanese 55-year Reanalysis, and North American Regional Reanalysis. We show that although the analysis/reanalysis generally captures the atmospheric state of the cyclone, their biases in the derivative terms (Q1 and Q2) at regional scale of a few hundred kilometers are large and all analyses/reanalyses tend to underestimate the subgrid-scale upward transport of moist static energy in the lower troposphere. The 3DCVA-gridded large-scale forcing data are physically consistent with the spatial distribution of surface and TOA measurements of radiation, precipitation, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and clouds that are better suited to force SCMs, CRMs, and LESs. Possible applications of the 3DCVA are discussed.

Reanalysis comparisons of upper tropospheric-lower stratospheric jets and multiple tropopauses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manney, Gloria L.; Hegglin, Michaela I.; Lawrence, Zachary D.; Wargan, Krzysztof; Millán, Luis F.; Schwartz, Michael J.; Santee, Michelle L.; Lambert, Alyn; Pawson, Steven; Knosp, Brian W.; Fuller, Ryan A.; Daffer, William H.

2017-09-01

The representation of upper tropospheric-lower stratospheric (UTLS) jet and tropopause characteristics is compared in five modern high-resolution reanalyses for 1980 through 2014. Climatologies of upper tropospheric jet, subvortex jet (the lowermost part of the stratospheric vortex), and multiple tropopause frequency distributions in MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications), ERA-I (ERA-Interim; the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF, interim reanalysis), JRA-55 (the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis), and CFSR (the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) are compared with those in MERRA-2. Differences between alternate products from individual reanalysis systems are assessed; in particular, a comparison of CFSR data on model and pressure levels highlights the importance of vertical grid spacing. Most of the differences in distributions of UTLS jets and multiple tropopauses are consistent with the differences in assimilation model grids and resolution - for example, ERA-I (with coarsest native horizontal resolution) typically shows a significant low bias in upper tropospheric jets with respect to MERRA-2, and JRA-55 (the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis) a more modest one, while CFSR (with finest native horizontal resolution) shows a high bias with respect to MERRA-2 in both upper tropospheric jets and multiple tropopauses. Vertical temperature structure and grid spacing are especially important for multiple tropopause characterizations. Substantial differences between MERRA and MERRA-2 are seen in mid- to high-latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter upper tropospheric jets and multiple tropopauses as well as in the upper tropospheric jets associated with tropical circulations during the solstice seasons; some of the largest differences from the other reanalyses are seen in the same times and places. Very good qualitative agreement among the reanalyses is seen between the large-scale climatological features in UTLS jet and multiple tropopause distributions. Quantitative differences may, however, have important consequences for transport and variability studies. Our results highlight the importance of considering reanalyses differences in UTLS studies, especially in relation to resolution and model grids; this is particularly critical when using high-resolution reanalyses as an observational reference for evaluating global chemistry-climate models.

Downscaled ice-ocean simulations for the Chukchi and Eastern Siberian Seas from an oceanic re-analysis product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujisaki-Manome, A.; Wang, J.

2016-12-01

Arctic summer sea ice has been declining at the rate that is much faster than any climate models predict. While the accelerated sea ice melting in the recent few decades could be attributed to several mechanisms such as the Arctic temperature amplification and the ice-albedo feedback, this does not necessarily explain why climate models underestimate the observed rate of summer sea ice loss. Clearly, an improved understanding is needed in what processes could be missed in climate models and could play roles in unprecedented loss of sea ice. This study evaluates contributions of sub-mesoscale processes in the ice edge (i.e. the boundary region between open water and ice covered area), which include eddies, ice bands, and the vertical mixing associated with ice bands, to the melting of sea ice and how they explain the underestimation of sea ice loss in the current state-of-art climate models. The focus area is in the pacific side of the Arctic Ocean. First, several oceanic re-analysis products including NCEP-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) are evaluated in comparison with the in-situ observations from the Russian-American Long-term Census of the Arctic (RUSALCA) project. Second, the downscaled ice-ocean simulations are conducted for the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas with initial and open boundary conditions provided from a selected oceanic re-analysis product.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Parameters of atmospheres of white dwarfs (Mortlock+, 2009)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortlock, D. J.; Peiris, H. V.; Ivezic, Z.

2010-03-01

It is possible to reliably identify white dwarfs (WDs) without recourse to spectra, instead using photometric and astrometric measurements to distinguish them from main-sequence stars and quasars. WDs' colours can also be used to infer their intrinsic properties (effective temperature, surface gravity, etc.), but the results obtained must be interpreted with care. The difficulties stem from the existence of a solid angle degeneracy, as revealed by a full exploration of the likelihood, although this can be masked if a simple best-fitting approach is used. Conversely, this degeneracy can be broken if a Bayesian approach is adopted, as it is then possible to utilize the prior information on the surface gravities of WDs implied by spectroscopic fitting. The benefits of such an approach are particularly strong when applied to outliers, such as the candidate halo and ultracool WDs identified by Vidrih et al. A reanalysis of these samples confirms their results for the latter sample, but suggests that most of the halo candidates are thick-disc WDs in the tails of the photometric noise distribution. (7 data files).

Adjoint-Based Climate Model Tuning: Application to the Planet Simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyu, Guokun; Köhl, Armin; Matei, Ion; Stammer, Detlef

2018-01-01

The adjoint method is used to calibrate the medium complexity climate model "Planet Simulator" through parameter estimation. Identical twin experiments demonstrate that this method can retrieve default values of the control parameters when using a long assimilation window of the order of 2 months. Chaos synchronization through nudging, required to overcome limits in the temporal assimilation window in the adjoint method, is employed successfully to reach this assimilation window length. When assimilating ERA-Interim reanalysis data, the observations of air temperature and the radiative fluxes are the most important data for adjusting the control parameters. The global mean net longwave fluxes at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere are significantly improved by tuning two model parameters controlling the absorption of clouds and water vapor. The global mean net shortwave radiation at the surface is improved by optimizing three model parameters controlling cloud optical properties. The optimized parameters improve the free model (without nudging terms) simulation in a way similar to that in the assimilation experiments. Results suggest a promising way for tuning uncertain parameters in nonlinear coupled climate models.

Tropical Meridional Overturning Circulation Observed by Subsurface Moorings in the Western Pacific.

PubMed

Song, Lina; Li, Yuanlong; Wang, Jianing; Wang, Fan; Hu, Shijian; Liu, Chuanyu; Diao, Xinyuan; Guan, Cong

2018-05-16

Meridional ocean current in the northwestern Pacific was documented by seven subsurface moorings deployed at 142°E during August 2014-October 2015. A sandwich structure of the tropical meridional overturning circulation (TMOC) was revealed between 0-6°N that consists of a surface northward flow (0-80 m), a thermocline southward flow (80-260 m; 22.6-26.5 σ θ ), and a subthermocline northward flow (260-500 m; 26.5-26.9 σ θ ). Based on mooring data, along with satellite and reanalysis data, prominent seasonal-to-interannual variations were observed in all three layers, and the equatorial zonal winds were found to be a dominant cause of the variations. The TMOC is generally stronger in boreal winter and weaker in summer. During 2014-2015, the TMOC was greatly weakened by westerly wind anomalies associated with the El Niño condition. Further analysis suggests that the TMOC can affect equatorial surface temperature in the western Pacific through anomalous upwelling/downwelling and likely plays a vital role in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Role of absorbing aerosols on hot extremes in India in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mondal, A.; Sah, N.; Venkataraman, C.; Patil, N.

2017-12-01

Temperature extremes and heat waves in North-Central India during the summer months of March through June are known for causing significant impact in terms of human health, productivity and mortality. While greenhouse gas-induced global warming is generally believed to intensify the magnitude and frequency of such extremes, aerosols are usually associated with an overall cooling, by virtue of their dominant radiation scattering nature, in most world regions. Recently, large-scale atmospheric conditions leading to heat wave and extreme temperature conditions have been analysed for the North-Central Indian region. However, the role of absorbing aerosols, including black carbon and dust, is still not well understood, in mediating hot extremes in the region. In this study, we use 30-year simulations from a chemistry-coupled atmosphere-only General Circulation Model (GCM), ECHAM6-HAM2, forced with evolving aerosol emissions in an interactive aerosol module, along with observed sea surface temperatures, to examine large-scale and mesoscale conditions during hot extremes in India. The model is first validated with observed gridded temperature and reanalysis data, and is found to represent observed variations in temperature in the North-Central region and concurrent large-scale atmospheric conditions during high temperature extremes realistically. During these extreme events, changes in near surface properties include a reduction in single scattering albedo and enhancement in short-wave solar heating rate, compared to climatological conditions. This is accompanied by positive anomalies of black carbon and dust aerosol optical depths. We conclude that the large-scale atmospheric conditions such as the presence of anticyclones and clear skies, conducive to heat waves and high temperature extremes, are exacerbated by absorbing aerosols in North-Central India. Future air quality regulations are expected to reduce sulfate particles and their masking of GHG warming. It is concurrently important to mitigate emissions of warming black carbon particles, to manage future climate change-induced hot extremes.

The Mars Analysis Correction Data Assimilation (MACDA): A reference atmospheric reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montabone, Luca; Lewis, Stephen R.; Steele, Liam J.; Holmes, James; Read, Peter L.; Valeanu, Alexandru; Smith, Michael D.; Kass, David; Kleinboehl, Armin; LMD Team, MGS/TES Team, MRO/MCS Team

2016-10-01

The Mars Analysis Correction Data Assimilation (MACDA) dataset version 1.0 contains the reanalysis of fundamental atmospheric and surface variables for the planet Mars covering a period of about three Martian years (late MY 24 to early MY 27). This four-dimensional dataset has been produced by data assimilation of retrieved thermal profiles and column dust optical depths from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor/Thermal Emission Spectrometer (MGS/TES), which have been assimilated into a Mars global climate model (MGCM) using the Analysis Correction scheme developed at the UK Meteorological Office.The MACDA v1.0 reanalysis is publicly available, and the NetCDF files can be downloaded from the archive at the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis/British Atmospheric Data Centre (CEDA/BADC). The variables included in the dataset can be visualised using an ad-hoc graphical user interface (the "MACDA Plotter") located at the following URL: http://macdap.physics.ox.ac.uk/The first paper about MACDA reanalysis of TES retrievals appeared in 2006, although the acronym MACDA was not yet used at that time. Ten years later, MACDA v1.0 has been used by several researchers worldwide and has contributed to the advancement of the knowledge about the martian atmosphere in critical areas such as the radiative impact of water ice clouds, the solsticial pause in baroclinic wave activity, and the climatology and dynamics of polar vortices, to cite only a few. It is therefore timely to review the scientific results obtained by using such Mars reference atmospheric reanalysis, in order to understand what priorities the user community should focus on in the next decade.MACDA is an ongoing collaborative project, and work funded by NASA MDAP Programme is currently undertaken to produce version 2.0 of the Mars atmospheric reanalysis. One of the key improvements is the extension of the reanalysis period to nine martian years (MY 24 through MY 32), with the assimilation of NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter/Mars Climate Sounder (MRO/MCS) retrievals of thermal and dust opacity profiles. MACDA 2.0 is also going to be based on an improved version of the underlying MGCM and an updated scheme to fully assimilate (radiative active) tracers, such as dust.

Development of an effective and potentially scalable weather generator for temperature and growing degree days

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmani, Elham; Friederichs, Petra; Keller, Jan; Hense, Andreas

2016-05-01

The main purpose of this study is to develop an easy-to-use weather generator (WG) for the downscaling of gridded data to point measurements at regional scale. The WG is applied to daily averaged temperatures and annual growing degree days (GDD) of wheat. This particular choice of variables is motivated by future investigations on temperature impacts as the most important climate variable for wheat cultivation under irrigation in Iran. The proposed statistical downscaling relates large-scale ERA-40 reanalysis to local daily temperature and annual GDD. Long-term local observations in Iran are used at 16 synoptic stations from 1961 to 2001, which is the common period with ERA-40 data. We perform downscaling using two approaches: the first is a linear regression model that uses the ERA-40 fingerprints (FP) defined by the squared correlation with local variability, and the second employs a linear multiple regression (MR) analysis to relate the large-scale information at the neighboring grid points to the station data. Extending the usual downscaling, we implement a WG providing uncertainty information and realizations of the local temperatures and GDD by adding a Gaussian random noise. ERA-40 reanalysis well represents the local daily temperature as well as the annual GDD variability. For 2-m temperature, the FPs are more localized during the warm compared with the cold season. While MR is slightly superior for daily temperature time series, FP seems to perform best for annual GDD. We further assess the quality of the WGs applying probabilistic verification scores like the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and the respective skill score. They clearly demonstrate the superiority of WGs compared with a deterministic downscaling.

North Atlantic early 20th century warming and impact on European summer: Mechanisms and Predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Wolfgang

2017-04-01

During the last century, substantial climate variations in the North Atlantic have occurred, such as the warmings in the 1920s and 1990s. Such variations are considered to be part of the variability known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variations (AMV) and have a strong impact on local climates such as European summers. Here a synthesis of previous works is presented which describe the occurrence of the warming in the 1920s in the North Atlantic and its impact on the European summer climate (Müller et al. 2014, 2015). For this the 20th century reanalysis (20CR) and 20CR forced ocean experiments are evaluated. It can be shown that the North Atlantic Current and Sub-Polar Gyre are strengthened as a result of an increased pressure gradient over the North Atlantic. Concurrently, Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) increase. The intensified NAC, SPG, and AMOC redistribute sub-tropical water into the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, thereby increasing observed and modelled temperature and salinity during the 1920s. Further a mechanism is proposed by which North Atlantic heat fluxes associated with the AMV modulate European decadal summer climate (Ghosh et al. 2016). By using 20CR, it can be shown that multi-decadal variations in the European summer temperature are associated to a linear baroclinic atmospheric response to the AMV-related surface heat flux. This response induce a sea level pressure structure modulating meridional temperature advection over north-western Europe and Blocking statistics over central Europe. This structure is shown to be the leading mode of variability and is independent of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation. Ghosh, R., W.A. Müller, J. Bader, and J. Baehr, 2016: Impact of observed North Atlantic multidecadal variations to European summer climate: A linear baroclinic response to surface heating. Clim. Dyn. doi:10.10007/s00382-016-3283-4 Müller W. A., D. Matei, M. Bersch, J. H. Jungclaus, H. Haak, K. Lohmann,G. P. Compo, and J. Marotzke, 2015: A 20th-century reanalysis forced ocean model to reconstruct North Atlantic climate variation during the 1920s, Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2267-5 Müller, W. A., H. Pohlmann, F. Sienz, and D. Smith, 2014: Decadal climate prediction for the period 1901-2010 with a coupled climate model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, pp 2100-2107.

Using Wind and Temperature Fields to Study Dehydration Mechanisms in the Tropical Tropopause Layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pittman, Jasna; Miller, Timothy; Robertson, Franklin

2008-01-01

The tropics are the main region for troposphere-to-stratosphere transport (TST) of air. One of the dominant mechanisms that control tropical TST of water vapor is freeze-drying by the cold tropical tropopause. This mechanism is supported by evidence from satellite observations of the "tape recorder", where seasonal changes in stratospheric water vapor are in phase with seasonal changes in tropopause temperatures in the tropics. Over the last few years, however, the concept of the tropical tropopause has evolved from a single material surface to a layer called the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL). A recent hypothesis on dehydration mechanisms suggests that dehydration and entry point into the stratosphere are not always co-located (Holton and Gettelman, 2001). Instead, dehydration can occur during horizontal advection through Lagrangian 'cold pools', or coldest regions along a parcel's trajectory, as air ascends within the TTL while the entry point into the stratosphere occurs at a different geographical location. In this study, we investigate the impact that these Lagrangian cold pools have on TTL moisture. For this purpose, we use in situ measurements of TTL water vapor obtained aboard NASA's WB-57 aircraft over the Eastern Tropical Pacific, and we compare these measurements to minimum saturation water vapor mixing ratios obtained from three-dimensional backward trajectory calculations. Aircraft measurements show frequent unsaturated conditions, which suggest that the entry value of stratospheric water vapor in this region was not set by local saturation conditions. Trajectory calculations, driven by both ECMWF operational analysis and reanalysis winds and temperature fields, are used to explore the impact (e.g., geographical location, timing, dehydration magnitude) of the Lagrangian cold pools intercepted by the parcels sampled by the aircraft. We find noteworthy differences in the location of the Lagrangian cold pools using the two ECMWF data sets, namely influence of the Western Tropical Pacific region when using operational analysis fields versus influence of the Eastern Tropical Pacific and South America regions when using reanalysis fields. These results have a significant impact on our scientific conclusions on dehydration mechanisms affecting the air sampled by the aircraft, given that these regions have different thermodynamic and convective properties.

Performance evaluation of CESM in simulating the dust cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parajuli, S. P.; Yang, Z. L.; Kocurek, G.; Lawrence, D. M.

2014-12-01

Mineral dust in the atmosphere has implications for Earth's radiation budget, biogeochemical cycles, hydrological cycles, human health and visibility. Mineral dust is injected into the atmosphere during dust storms when the surface winds are sufficiently strong and the land surface conditions are favorable. Dust storms are very common in specific regions of the world including the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, which contains more than 50% of the global dust sources. In this work, we present simulation of the dust cycle under the framework of CESM1.2.2 and evaluate how well the model captures the spatio-temporal characteristics of dust sources, transport and deposition at global scale, especially in dust source regions. We conducted our simulations using two existing erodibility maps (geomorphic and topographic) and a new erodibility map, which is based on the correlation between observed wind and dust. We compare the simulated results with MODIS satellite data, MACC reanalysis data, and AERONET station data. Comparison with MODIS satellite data and MACC reanalysis data shows that all three erodibility maps generally reproduce the spatio-temporal characteristics of dust optical depth globally. However, comparison with AERONET station data shows that the simulated dust optical depth is generally overestimated for all erodibility maps. Results vary greatly by region and scale of observational data. Our results also show that the simulations forced by reanalysis meteorology capture the overall dust cycle more realistically compared to the simulations done using online meteorology.

Assessment of Wind Datasets for Estimating Offshore Wind Energy along the Central California Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y. H.; Walter, R. K.; Ruttenberg, B.; White, C.

2017-12-01

Offshore renewable energy along the central California coastline has gained significant interest in recent years. We present a comprehensive analysis of near-surface wind datasets available in this region to facilitate future estimates of wind power generation potential. The analyses are based on local NDBC buoys, satellite-based measurements (QuickSCAT and CCMP V2.0), reanalysis products (NARR and MERRA), and a regional climate model (WRF). There are substantial differences in the diurnal signal during different months among the various products (i.e., satellite-based, reanalysis, and modeled) relative to the local buoys. Moreover, the datasets tended to underestimate wind speed under light wind conditions and overestimate under strong wind conditions. In addition to point-to-point comparisons against local buoys, the spatial variations of bias and error in both the reanalysis products and WRF model data in this region were compared against satellite-based measurements. NARR's bias and root-mean-square-error were generally small in the study domain and decreased with distance from coastlines. Although its smaller spatial resolution is likely to be insufficient to reveal local effects, the small bias and error in near-surface winds, as well as the availability of wind data at the proposed turbine hub heights, suggests that NARR is an ideal candidate for use in offshore wind energy production estimates along the central California coast. The framework utilized here could be applied in other site-specific regions where offshore renewable energy is being considered.

Range of monthly mean hourly land surface air temperature diurnal cycle over high northern latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Aihui; Zeng, Xubin

2014-05-01

Daily maximum and minimum temperatures over global land are fundamental climate variables, and their difference represents the diurnal temperature range (DTR). While the differences between the monthly averaged DTR (MDTR) and the range of monthly averaged hourly temperature diurnal cycle (RMDT) are easy to understand qualitatively, their differences have not been quantified over global land areas. Based on our newly developed in situ data (Climatic Research Unit) reanalysis (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) merged hourly temperature data from 1979 to 2009, RMDT in January is found to be much smaller than that in July over high northern latitudes, as it is much more affected by the diurnal radiative forcing than by the horizontal advection of temperature. In contrast, MDTR in January is comparable to that in July over high northern latitudes, but it is much larger than January RMDT, as it primarily reflects the movement of lower frequency synoptic weather systems. The area-averaged RMDT trends north of 40°N are near zero in November, December, and January, while the trends of MDTR are negative. These results suggest the need to use both the traditional MDTR and RMDT suggested here in future observational and modeling studies. Furthermore, MDTR and its trend are more sensitive to the starting hour of a 24 h day used in the calculations than those for RMDT, and this factor also needs to be considered in model evaluations using observational data.

Forecasting Future Sea Ice Conditions in the MIZ: A Lagrangian Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

www.mcgill.ca/meteo/people/tremblay LONG-TERM GOALS 1- Determine the source regions for sea ice in the seasonally ice-covered zones (SIZs...distribution of sea ice cover and transport pathways. 2- Improve our understanding of the strengths and/or limitations of GCM predictions of future...ocean currents, RGPS sea ice deformation, Reanalysis surface wind , surface radiative fluxes, etc. Processing the large datasets involved is a tedious

On the physical air-sea fluxes for climate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonekamp, J. G.

2001-02-01

At the sea surface, the atmosphere and the ocean exchange momentum, heat and freshwater. Mechanisms for the exchange are wind stress, turbulent mixing, radiation, evaporation and precipitation. These surface fluxes are characterized by a large spatial and temporal variability and play an important role in not only the mean atmospheric and oceanic circulation, but also in the generation and sustainment of coupled climate fluctuations such as the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon. Therefore, a good knowledge of air-sea fluxes is required for the understanding and prediction of climate changes. As part of long-term comprehensive atmospheric reanalyses with `Numerical Weather Prediction/Data assimilation' systems, data sets of global air-sea fluxes are generated. A good example is the 15-year atmospheric reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium--Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Air-sea flux data sets from these reanalyses are very beneficial for climate research, because they combine a good spatial and temporal coverage with a homogeneous and consistent method of calculation. However, atmospheric reanalyses are still imperfect sources of flux information due to shortcomings in model variables, model parameterizations, assimilation methods, sampling of observations, and quality of observations. Therefore, assessments of the errors and the usefulness of air-sea flux data sets from atmospheric (re-)analyses are relevant contributions to the quantitative study of climate variability. Currently, much research is aimed at assessing the quality and usefulness of the reanalysed air-sea fluxes. Work in this thesis intends to contribute to this assessment. In particular, it attempts to answer three relevant questions. The first question is: What is the best parameterization of the momentum flux? A comparison is made of the wind stress parameterization of the ERA15 reanalysis, the currently generated ERA40 reanalysis and the wind stress measurements over the open ocean. The comparison reveals some clear differences in the mean drag coefficient. In addition, this study has indicated that progress has been made from the ERA15 to the ERA40 reanalyses by replacing the model parameterization with a constant Charnock parameter with one which depends on the sea state. The second research question is whether comparison of the response of an ocean model with ocean observations can be exploited to assess the quality of air-sea fluxes of the ERA15 reanalysis. To answer this question in a systematic way an inverse modeling approach is adopted using a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) scheme. Firstly, the functioning of the 4DVAR system is demonstrated from identical twin experiments. These experiments reveal that in the equatorial Pacific, a large reduction in wind-stress and upper-ocean temperature misfits can be achieved using an assimilation time window of eight weeks. It is concluded that the usefulness of inverse ocean modeling technique for global surface flux assessment is limited. The main merit of the developed ocean 4DVAR scheme will be to diagnose errors in the ocean analyses of the ocean model. The last research question is: are the ERA15 fluxes useful for the study of regional patterns of climate variability? The climate mode of consideration is the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave. This study stresses the importance to have the right climatological forcing conditions to assess time scales of climate variability and it confirms the usefulness of ERA15 air-sea fluxes as ocean model forcing fields to study climate variability on the interannual time scale.

The Impact of Moisture Intrusions from Lower Latitudes on Arctic Net Surface Radiative Fluxes and Sea Ice Growth in Fall and Winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegyi, B. M.; Taylor, P. C.

2017-12-01

The fall and winter seasons mark an important period in the evolution of Arctic sea ice, where energy is transferred away from the surface to facilitate the cooling of the surface and the growth of Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. Climatologically, these seasons are characterized by distinct periods of increased and reduced surface cooling and sea ice growth. Periods of reduced sea ice growth and surface cooling are associated with cloudy conditions and the transport of warm and moist air from lower latitudes, termed moisture intrusions. In the research presented, we explore the regional and Arctic-wide impact of moisture intrusions on the surface net radiative fluxes and sea ice growth for each fall and winter season from 2000/01-2015/16, utilizing MERRA2 reanalysis data, PIOMAS sea ice thickness data, and daily CERES radiative flux data. Consistent with previous studies, we find that positive anomalies in downwelling longwave surface flux are associated with increased temperature and water vapor content in the atmospheric column contained within the moisture intrusions. Interestingly, there are periods of increased downwelling LW flux anomalies that persist for one week or longer (i.e. longer than synoptic timescales) that are associated with persistent poleward flux of warm, moist air from lower latitudes. These persistent anomalies significantly reduce the regional growth of Arctic sea ice, and may in part explain the interannual variability of fall and winter Arctic sea ice growth.

Complementary-relationship-based 30 year normals (1981-2010) of monthly latent heat fluxes across the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szilagyi, Jozsef

2015-11-01

Thirty year normal (1981-2010) monthly latent heat fluxes (ET) over the conterminous United States were estimated by a modified Advection-Aridity model from North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) radiation and wind as well as Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) air and dew-point temperature data. Mean annual ET values were calibrated with PRISM precipitation (P) and validated against United States Geological Survey runoff (Q) data. At the six-digit Hydrologic Unit Code level (sample size of 334) the estimated 30 year normal runoff (P - ET) had a bias of 18 mm yr-1, a root-mean-square error of 96 mm yr-1, and a linear correlation coefficient value of 0.95, making the estimates on par with the latest Land Surface Model results but without the need for soil and vegetation information or any soil moisture budgeting.

Analysis of changes in tornadogenesis conditions over Northern Eurasia based on a simple index of atmospheric convective instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chernokulsky, A. V.; Kurgansky, M. V.; Mokhov, I. I.

2017-12-01

A simple index of convective instability (3D-index) is used for analysis of weather and climate processes that favor to the occurrence of severe convective events including tornadoes. The index is based on information on the surface air temperature and humidity. The prognostic ability of the index to reproduce severe convective events (thunderstorms, showers, tornadoes) is analyzed. It is shown that most tornadoes in North Eurasia are characterized by high values of the 3D-index; furthermore, the 3D-index is significantly correlated with the available convective potential energy. Reanalysis data (for recent decades) and global climate model simulations (for the 21st century) show an increase in the frequency of occurrence of favorable for tornado formation meteorological conditions in the regions of Northern Eurasia. The most significant increase is found on the Black Sea coast and in the south of the Far East.

Teleconnection Paths via Climate Network Direct Link Detection.

PubMed

Zhou, Dong; Gozolchiani, Avi; Ashkenazy, Yosef; Havlin, Shlomo

2015-12-31

Teleconnections describe remote connections (typically thousands of kilometers) of the climate system. These are of great importance in climate dynamics as they reflect the transportation of energy and climate change on global scales (like the El Niño phenomenon). Yet, the path of influence propagation between such remote regions, and weighting associated with different paths, are only partially known. Here we propose a systematic climate network approach to find and quantify the optimal paths between remotely distant interacting locations. Specifically, we separate the correlations between two grid points into direct and indirect components, where the optimal path is found based on a minimal total cost function of the direct links. We demonstrate our method using near surface air temperature reanalysis data, on identifying cross-latitude teleconnections and their corresponding optimal paths. The proposed method may be used to quantify and improve our understanding regarding the emergence of climate patterns on global scales.

Using NASA Remotely Sensed Data to Help Characterize Environmental Risk Factors for National Public Health Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad; Crosson, William; Estes, Maury; Estes, Sue; Hemmings, Sarah; Quattrochi, Dale; McClure, Keslie; Kent, Shia; Economou, Sigrid; Puckett, Mark;

Sensitivity of Satellite-Based Skin Temperature to Different Surface Emissivity and NWP Reanalysis Sources Demonstrated Using a Single-Channel, Viewing-Angle-Corrected Retrieval Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scarino, B. R.; Minnis, P.; Yost, C. R.; Chee, T.; Palikonda, R.

2015-12-01

Single-channel algorithms for satellite thermal-infrared- (TIR-) derived land and sea surface skin temperature (LST and SST) are advantageous in that they can be easily applied to a variety of satellite sensors. They can also accommodate decade-spanning instrument series, particularly for periods when split-window capabilities are not available. However, the benefit of one unified retrieval methodology for all sensors comes at the cost of critical sensitivity to surface emissivity (ɛs) and atmospheric transmittance estimation. It has been demonstrated that as little as 0.01 variance in ɛs can amount to more than a 0.5-K adjustment in retrieved LST values. Atmospheric transmittance requires calculations that employ vertical profiles of temperature and humidity from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Selection of a given NWP model can significantly affect LST and SST agreement relative to their respective validation sources. Thus, it is necessary to understand the accuracies of the retrievals for various NWP models to ensure the best LST/SST retrievals. The sensitivities of the single-channel retrievals to surface emittance and NWP profiles are investigated using NASA Langley historic land and ocean clear-sky skin temperature (Ts) values derived from high-resolution 11-μm TIR brightness temperature measured from geostationary satellites (GEOSat) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR). It is shown that mean GEOSat-derived, anisotropy-corrected LST can vary by up to ±0.8 K depending on whether CERES or MODIS ɛs sources are used. Furthermore, the use of either NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) or NASA Goddard Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) for the radiative transfer model initial atmospheric state can account for more than 0.5-K variation in mean Ts. The results are compared to measurements from the Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD), an Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program ground station, and NOAA ESRL high-resolution Optimum Interpolation SST (OISST). Precise understanding of the influence these auxiliary inputs have on final satellite-based Ts retrievals may help guide refinement in ɛs characterization and NWP development, e.g., future Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System versions.

Climate Drivers of Alaska Summer Stream Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bieniek, P.; Bhatt, U. S.; Plumb, E. W.; Thoman, R.; Trammell, E. J.

2016-12-01

The temperature of the water in lakes, rivers and streams has wide ranging impacts from local water quality and fish habitats to global climate change. Salmon fisheries in Alaska, a critical source of food in many subsistence communities, are sensitive to large-scale climate variability and river and stream temperatures have also been linked with salmon production in Alaska. Given current and projected climate change, understanding the mechanisms that link the large-scale climate and river and stream temperatures is essential to better understand the changes that may occur with aquatic life in Alaska's waterways on which subsistence users depend. An analysis of Alaska stream temperatures in the context of reanalysis, downscaled, station and other climate data is undertaken in this study to fill that need. Preliminary analysis identified eight stream observation sites with sufficiently long (>15 years) data available for climate-scale analysis in Alaska with one station, Terror Creek in Kodiak, having a 30-year record. Cross-correlation of summer (June-August) water temperatures between the stations are generally high even though they are spread over a large geographic region. Correlation analysis of the Terror Creek summer observations with seasonal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Pacific broadly resembles the SST anomaly fields typically associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A similar result was found for the remaining stations and in both cases PDO-like correlation patterns also occurred in the preceding spring. These preliminary results demonstrate that there is potential to diagnose the mechanisms that link the large-scale climate system and Alaska stream temperatures.

Reanalysis of the fragility of glycerol at very high pressures using new Tg data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyon, Kevin; Oliver, William

Direct measurements of the glass transition temperature of glycerol between 1 atm and 6.7 GPa from our lab allow reanalysis of high-pressure viscosity data, which were limited to approximately 107 poise. Previous attempts to determine Tg (P) and fragility by extrapolation of the viscosity data by many orders of magnitude led to inconclusive results. Tg (P) data constrain the value of viscosity at the glass transition providing for more accurate determinations of isobaric fragilities. Over most of the pressure range, a constant fragility is found in agreement with analysis of high-pressure dielectric data by Paluch et al.. Discrepancies in the pressure dependence of the fragility of glycerol at very low pressures exist in the literature and will also be discussed.

Simulating the impacts of chronic ozone exposure on plant conductance and photosynthesis, and on the regional hydroclimate using WRF/Chem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jialun; Mahalov, Alex; Hyde, Peter

2016-11-01

The Noah-Multiparameterization land surface model in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) is modified to include the effects of chronic ozone exposure (COE) on plant conductance and photosynthesis (PCP) found from field experiments. Based on the modified WRF/Chem, the effects of COE on regional hydroclimate have been investigated over the continental United States. Our results indicate that the model with/without modification in its current configuration can reproduce the rainfall and temperature patterns of the observations and reanalysis data, although it underestimates rainfall in the central Great Plains and overestimates it in the eastern coast states. The experimental tests on the effects of COE include setting different thresholds of ambient ozone concentrations ([O3]) and using different linear regressions to quantify PCP against the COE. Compared with the WRF/Chem control run (i.e., without considering the effects of COE), the modified model at different experiment setups improves the simulated estimates of rainfall and temperatures in Texas and regions to the immediate north. The simulations in June, July and August of 2007-2012 show that surface [O3] decrease latent heat fluxes (LH) by 10-27 W m-2, increase surface air temperatures (T 2) by 0.6 °C-2.0 °C, decrease rainfall by 0.9-1.4 mm d-1, and decrease runoff by 0.1-0.17 mm d-1 in Texas and surrounding areas, all of which highly depends on the precise experiment setup, especially the [O3] threshold. The mechanism producing these results is that COE decreases the LH and increases sensible heat fluxes, which in turn increases the Bowen ratios and air temperatures. This lowering of the LH also results in the decrease of convective potential and finally decreases convective rainfall. Employing this modified WRF/Chem model in any high [O3] region can improve the understanding of the interactions of vegetation, meteorology, chemistry/emissions, and crop productivity.

Satellite based assessment of recent permafrost extent and active layer trends over Alaska and Northwest Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Kimball, J. S.; PARK, H.; Yi, Y.

2017-12-01

Climate change in the Boreal-Arctic region has experienced greater surface air temperature (SAT) warming than the global average in recent decades, which is promoting permafrost thawing and active layer deepening. Permafrost extent (PE) and active layer thickness (ALT) are key environmental indicators of recent climate change, and strongly impact other eco-hydrological processes including land-atmosphere carbon exchange. We developed a new approach for regional estimation and monitoring of PE using daily landscape freeze-thaw (FT) records derived from satellite microwave (37 GHz) brightness temperature (Tb) observations. ALT was estimated within the PE domain using empirical modeling of land cover dependent edaphic factors and an annual thawing index derived from MODIS land surface temperature (LST) observations and reanalysis based surface air temperatures (SAT). The PE and ALT estimates were derived over the 1980-2016 satellite record and NASA ABoVE (Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment) domain encompassing Alaska and Northwest Canada. The baseline model estimates were derived at 25-km resolution consistent with the satellite FT global record. Our results show recent widespread PE decline and deepening ALT trends, with larger spatial variability and model uncertainty along the southern PE boundary. Larger PE and ALT variability occurs over heterogeneous permafrost subzones characterized by dense vegetation, and variable snow cover and organic layer conditions. We also tested alternative PE and ALT estimates derived using finer (6-km) scale satellite Tb (36.5 GHz) and FT retrievals from a calibrated AMSR-E and AMSR2 sensor record. The PE and ALT results were compared against other independent observations, including process model simulations, in situ measurements, and permafrost inventory records. A model sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate snow cover, soil organic layer, and vegetation composition impacts to ALT. The finer delineation of permafrost and active layer conditions provides enhanced regional monitoring of PE and ALT changes over the ABoVE domain, including heterogeneous permafrost subzones.

Use and Limitations of a Climate-Quality Data Record to Study Temperature Trends on the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, D. K.; Comiso, J. C.; Shuman, C. A.; Koenig, L.; DiGirolamo, N. E.

2011-12-01

Enhanced melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented in recent literature along with surface-temperature increases measured using infrared satellite data since 1981. Using a recently-developed climate-quality data record, 11- and 12-year trends in the clear-sky ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet have been studied using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) IST product. Daily and monthly MODIS ISTs of the Greenland Ice Sheet beginning on 1 March 2000 and continuing through 31 December 2010 are now available at 6.25-km spatial resolution on a polar stereographic grid as described in Hall et al. (submitted). This record will be elevated in status to a climate-data record (CDR) when more years of data become available either from the MODIS on the Terra or Aqua satellites, or from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) to be launched in October 2011. Maps showing the maximum extent of melt for the entire ice sheet and for the six major drainage basins have been developed from the MODIS IST dataset. Twelve-year trends in the extent of melt and duration of the melt season on the ice sheet vary in different drainage basins with some basins melting progressively earlier over the course of the study period. Some (but not all) of the basins also show a progressively-longer duration of melt. Twelve-year trends in IST are compared with in-situ data, and climate data from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Reanalysis. Hall, D.K., J.C. Comiso, N.E. DiGirolamo, C.A. Shuman, J. Key and L.S. Koenig, submitted for journal publication: A Satellite-Derived Climate-Quality Data Record of the Clear-Sky Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

A Wildfire-relevant climatology of the convective environment of the United States

Treesearch

Brian E. Potter; Matthew A. Anaya

2015-01-01

Convective instability can influence the behaviour of large wildfires. Because wildfires modify the temperature and moisture of air in their plumes, instability calculations using ambient conditions may not accurately represent convective potential for some fire plumes. This study used the North American Regional Reanalysis to develop a climatology of the convective...

On the predictability of the interannual behaviour of the Madden-Julian oscillation and its relationship with El Nino

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sperber, K.R., LLNL

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability at intraseasonal timescales. It displays substantial interannual variability in intensity which may have important implications for the predictability of the coupled system. The reasons for this interannual variability are not understood. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the interannual behavior of the MJO is related to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, particularly El Nino, and hence whether it is predictable. The interannual behavior of the MJO has been diagnosed initially in the 40-year NCEP/ NCAR Reanalysis. The results suggest that prior to the mid-1970s themore » activity of the MJO was consistently lower than during the latter part of the record. This may be related to either inadequacies in the data coverage, particularly over the tropical Indian Ocean prior to the introduction of satellite observations, or to the real effects of a decadal timescale warming in the tropical SSTs. The teleconnection patterns between interannual variations in MJO activity and SST show only a weak, barely significant, influence of El Nino in which the MJO is more active during the cold phase. As well as the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, a 4-member ensemble of 45 year integrations with the Hadley Centre climate model (HadAM2a), forced by observed SSTs for 1949-93, has been used to investigate the relationship between MJO activity and SST. HadAM2a is known to give a reasonable simulation of the MJO and the extended record provided by this ensemble of integrations allows a more robust investigation of the predictability of MJO activity than was possible with the 40-year NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. The results have shown that, for the uncoupled system, with the atmosphere being driven by imposed SSTS, there is no reproducibility for the activity of the MJO from year to year. The interannual behavior of the MJO is not controlled by the phase of El Nino and would appear to be chaotic in character. However, the model results have confirmed the low frequency, decadal timescale variability of MJO activity seen in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. The activity of the MJO is consistently lower in all realizations prior to the mid 1970s, suggesting that the MJO may become more active as tropical SSTs become warmer. This result may have implications for the effects of global warming on the coupled tropical atmosphere-ocean system.« less

Evaluation of Gridded Precipitation Data for Driving SWAT Model in Area Upstream of Three Gorges Reservoir

PubMed Central

Yang, Yan; Wang, Guoqiang; Wang, Lijing; Yu, Jingshan; Xu, Zongxue

2014-01-01

Gridded precipitation data are becoming an important source for driving hydrologic models to achieve stable and valid simulation results in different regions. Thus, evaluating different sources of precipitation data is important for improving the applicability of gridded data. In this study, we used three gridded rainfall datasets: 1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction - Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR); 2) Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE); and 3) China trend - surface reanalysis (trend surface) data. These are compared with monitoring precipitation data for driving the Soil and Water Assessment Tool in two basins upstream of Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China. The results of one test basin with significant topographic influence indicates that all the gridded data have poor abilities in reproducing hydrologic processes with the topographic influence on precipitation quantity and distribution. However, in a relatively flat test basin, the APHRODITE and trend surface data can give stable and desirable results. The results of this study suggest that precipitation data for future applications should be considered comprehensively in the TGR area, including the influence of data density and topography. PMID:25409467

A Note on the Relationship of Temperature and Water Vapor over Oceans, as well as the Sea Surface Temperature Impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shie, C.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Simpson, J.

2005-01-01

This note follows up on a recent study by Shie et al. (2005) and extends the investigation of the domain-averaged moisture-temperature (Q-T) relationship from the Tropics (i.e., the previous study) to the tropical Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. The Q and T data examined in this study are obtained from the GEOS-3 [Goddard Earth Observing System Version-3] global re-analysis monthly products. Similar to what was found earlier in the Tropics, Q is also found to increase with T over the entire oceanic region; however, Q increases faster with T over oceans than over the Tropics. The Q-T distribution for the Tropics is in a quasi-linear relationship, which is embedded in a global Q-T distribution that is, however, in a more complex curvilinear relationship. The Q-T distribution over the oceanic regions seems to fall within the lower bound (ie., the relatively colder and driver regime) of the tropical Q-T distribution. T over oceans is also found increasing with SST (sea surface temperature), which seemingly implies that an air mass might have gained heat more readily from a warmer ocean as compared to a colder ocean. Q is also found to increase with SST in a manner that quantitatively resembles an earlier finding by Stevens (1990). We also found that relative humidity exhibits similar behaviors for oceanic and tropical regions, respectively, i.e., it increases with both SST and T over oceans and increases with T in the Tropics (Shie et al. 2005). All these similar features found between oceanic and tropical regions seem to inform us that oceans occupy most of the Tropics and so play a key role in determining what have happened in the Tropics.

Structural diagnostics of the tropopause inversion layer and its evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gettelman, A.; Wang, T.

2015-01-01

The Tropopause Inversion Layer (TIL) is marked by a peak in static stability directly above the tropopause. The TIL is quantitatively defined with new diagnostics using Global Positioning System Radio Occultation temperature soundings and reanalysis data. A climatology of the TIL is developed from reanalysis data (1980-2011) using diagnostics for the position, depth, and strength of the TIL based on the TIL peak in static stability. TIL diagnostics have defined relationships to the synoptic situation in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere. The TIL is present nearly all the time. The TIL becomes hard to define in the subtropics where tropical air overlies midlatitude air, in a region of complex static stability profiles. The mean position of the subtropical TIL gradient is sharp and is co-located with the subtropical tropopause break. Over the period 1980-2011 the TIL depth below the tropopause has decreased by 5% per decade and increased above the tropical tropopause by a similar percentage. Furthermore, the latitude of the abrupt change in the TIL from tropical to extratropical in the lower stratosphere appears to have shifted poleward in each hemisphere by ˜1° latitude per decade, depending on the diagnostic examined. Reanalysis trends should be treated with caution.

Large Scale EOF Analysis of Climate Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabhat, M.; Gittens, A.; Kashinath, K.; Cavanaugh, N. R.; Mahoney, M.

2016-12-01

We present a distributed approach towards extracting EOFs from 3D climate data. We implement the method in Apache Spark, and process multi-TB sized datasets on O(1000-10,000) cores. We apply this method to latitude-weighted ocean temperature data from CSFR, a 2.2 terabyte-sized data set comprising ocean and subsurface reanalysis measurements collected at 41 levels in the ocean, at 6 hour intervals over 31 years. We extract the first 100 EOFs of this full data set and compare to the EOFs computed simply on the surface temperature field. Our analyses provide evidence of Kelvin and Rossy waves and components of large-scale modes of oscillation including the ENSO and PDO that are not visible in the usual SST EOFs. Further, they provide information on the the most influential parts of the ocean, such as the thermocline, that exist below the surface. Work is ongoing to understand the factors determining the depth-varying spatial patterns observed in the EOFs. We will experiment with weighting schemes to appropriately account for the differing depths of the observations. We also plan to apply the same distributed approach to analysis of analysis of 3D atmospheric climatic data sets, including multiple variables. Because the atmosphere changes on a quicker time-scale than the ocean, we expect that the results will demonstrate an even greater advantage to computing 3D EOFs in lieu of 2D EOFs.

Climate Forcing Datasets for Agricultural Modeling: Merged Products for Gap-Filling and Historical Climate Series Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Goldberg, Richard; Chryssanthacopoulos, James

2014-01-01

The AgMERRA and AgCFSR climate forcing datasets provide daily, high-resolution, continuous, meteorological series over the 1980-2010 period designed for applications examining the agricultural impacts of climate variability and climate change. These datasets combine daily resolution data from retrospective analyses (the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA, and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, CFSR) with in situ and remotely-sensed observational datasets for temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, leading to substantial reductions in bias in comparison to a network of 2324 agricultural-region stations from the Hadley Integrated Surface Dataset (HadISD). Results compare favorably against the original reanalyses as well as the leading climate forcing datasets (Princeton, WFD, WFD-EI, and GRASP), and AgMERRA distinguishes itself with substantially improved representation of daily precipitation distributions and extreme events owing to its use of the MERRA-Land dataset. These datasets also peg relative humidity to the maximum temperature time of day, allowing for more accurate representation of the diurnal cycle of near-surface moisture in agricultural models. AgMERRA and AgCFSR enable a number of ongoing investigations in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) and related research networks, and may be used to fill gaps in historical observations as well as a basis for the generation of future climate scenarios.

Decadal Prediction Skill in the GEOS-5 Forecast System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Rienecker, Michele M.; Suarez, Max J.; Vikhliaev, Yury; Zhao, Bin; Marshak, Jelena; Vernieres, Guillaume; Schubert, Siegfried D.

2013-01-01

A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office's (GMAO's) GEOS-5 Atmosphere-Ocean general circulation model. The hind casts are initialized every December 1st from 1959 to 2010, following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multivariate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from GMAO's atmospheric reanalysis, the modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. The mean forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but also forced with observed greenhouse gases. The results show that initialization increases the forecast skill of North Atlantic sea surface temperature compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. On the other hand, the initialization reduces the skill in predicting the warming trend over some regions outside the Atlantic. The annual-mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation index, which is defined here as the maximum of the zonally-integrated overturning stream function at mid-latitude, is predictable up to a 4-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the North Atlantic. While the 6- to 9-year forecast skill measured by mean squared skill score shows 50 percent improvement in the upper ocean heat content over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, prediction skill is relatively low in the sub-polar gyre. This low skill is due in part to features in the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region that differ from observations. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts.

Time dependency of the prediction skill for the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in initialized decadal hindcasts with MPI-ESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brune, Sebastian; Düsterhus, Andre; Pohlmann, Holger; Müller, Wolfgang; Baehr, Johanna

2017-04-01

We analyze the time dependency of decadal hindcast skill in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre within the time period 1961-2013. We compare anomaly correlation coefficients and interquartile ranges of total upper ocean heat content and sea surface temperature for three differently initialized sets of hindcast simulations with the global coupled model MPI-ESM. All initializations use weakly coupled assimilation with the same full-field nudging in the atmospheric component and different assimilation techniques for oceanic temperature and salinity: (1) ensemble Kalman filter assimilating EN4 and HadISST observations, (2) nudging of anomalies to ORAS4 reanalysis, (3) nudging of full values to ORAS4 reanalysis. We find that hindcast skill depends strongly on the evaluation time period, with higher hindcast skill during strong multiyear trends and lower hindcast skill in the absence of such trends. While there may only be small differences between the prediction systems in the analysis focusing on the entire hindcast period, these differences between the hindcast systems are much more pronounced when investigating any 20-year subperiod within the entire hindcast period. For the ensemble Kalman filter high skill in the assimilation experiment is generally linked to high skill in the initialized hindcasts. Such direct link does not seem to exist in the hindcasts initialized by either nudged system. In the ensemble Kalman filter initialized hindcasts, we find significant hindcast skill for up to 5 to 8 lead years, except for the 1970s. In the nudged system initialized hindcasts, hindcast skill is consistently diminished in lead years 2 and 3 with lowest skill in the 1970s as well. Overall, we find that a model-consistent assimilation technique can improve hindcast skill. Further, the evaluation of 20 year subperiods within the full hindcast period provides essential insights to judge the success of both the assimilation and the subsequent hindcast skill.

Time dependency of the prediction skill for the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in initialized decadal hindcasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brune, Sebastian; Düsterhus, André; Pohlmann, Holger; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Baehr, Johanna

2017-11-01

We analyze the time dependency of decadal hindcast skill in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre within the time period 1961-2013. We compare anomaly correlation coefficients and temporal interquartile ranges of total upper ocean heat content and sea surface temperature for three differently initialized sets of hindcast simulations with the global coupled model MPI-ESM. All initializations use weakly coupled assimilation with the same full value nudging in the atmospheric component and different assimilation techniques for oceanic temperature and salinity: (1) ensemble Kalman filter assimilating EN4 observations and HadISST data, (2) nudging of anomalies to ORAS4 reanalysis, (3) nudging of full values to ORAS4 reanalysis. We find that hindcast skill depends strongly on the evaluation time period, with higher hindcast skill during strong multiyear trends, especially during the warming in the 1990s and lower hindcast skill in the absence of such trends. Differences between the prediction systems are more pronounced when investigating any 20-year subperiod within the entire hindcast period. In the ensemble Kalman filter initialized hindcasts, we find significant correlation skill for up to 5-8 lead years, albeit along with an overestimation of the temporal interquartile range. In the hindcasts initialized by anomaly nudging, significant correlation skill for lead years greater than two is only found in the 1980s and 1990s. In the hindcasts initialized by full value nudging, correlation skill is consistently lower than in the hindcasts initialized by anomaly nudging in the first lead years with re-emerging skill thereafter. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation reacts on the density changes introduced by oceanic nudging, this limits the predictability in the subpolar gyre in the first lead years. Overall, we find that a model-consistent assimilation technique can improve hindcast skill. Further, the evaluation of 20 year subperiods within the full hindcast period provides essential insights to judge the success of both the assimilation and the subsequent hindcast quality.

Operational Prediction of the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) Distribution for Neon Flying Squid in Central North Pacific by Using FORA Dataset and a New Data Assimilation System SKUIDS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Igarashi, H.; Ishikawa, Y.; Wakamatsu, T.; Tanaka, Y.; Nishikawa, S.; Nishikawa, H.; Kamachi, M.; Kuragano, T.; Takatsuki, Y.; Fujii, Y.; Usui, N.; Toyoda, T.; Hirose, N.; Sakai, M.; Saitoh, S. I.; Imamura, Y.

2016-02-01

The neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) has a wide-spread distribution in subtropical and temperate waters in the North Pacific, which plays an important role in the pelagic ecosystem and is one of the major targets in Japanese squid fisheries. The main fishing areas for Japanese commercial vessels are located in the central North Pacific (35-45N, around the date line) in summer. In this study, we have developed several kinds of habitat suitability index (HSI) models of the neon flying squid for investigating the relationship between its potential habitat and the ocean state variations in the target area. For developing HSI models, we have used a new ocean reanalysis dataset FORA (4-dimensional variational Ocean Re-Analysis) produced by JAMSTEC/CEIST and MRI-JMA. The horizontal resolution is 0.1*0.1 degree of latitude and longitude with 54 vertical levels, which can provide realistic fields of 3-dimensional ocean circulation and environmental structures including meso-scale eddies. In addition, we have developed a new 4D-VAR (4-dimensional variational) ocean data assimilation system for predicting ocean environmental changes in the main fishing grounds. We call this system "SKUIDS" (Scalable Kit of Under-sea Information Delivery System). By using these prediction fields of temperature, salinity, sea surface height, horizontal current velocity, we produced daily HSI maps of the neon flying squid, and provided them to the Japanese commercial vessels in operation. Squid fishermen can access the web site for delivering the information of ocean environments in the fishing ground by using Inmarsat satellite communication on board, and show the predicted fields of subsurface temperatures and HSI. Here, we present the details of SKUIDS and the web-delivery system for squid fishery, and some preliminary results of the operational prediction.

High Resolution Nature Runs and the Big Data Challenge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webster, W. Phillip; Duffy, Daniel Q.

2015-01-01

NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at Goddard Space Flight Center is undertaking a series of very computationally intensive Nature Runs and a downscaled reanalysis. The nature runs use the GEOS-5 as an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) while the reanalysis uses the GEOS-5 in Data Assimilation mode. This paper will present computational challenges from three runs, two of which are AGCM and one is downscaled reanalysis using the full DAS. The nature runs will be completed at two surface grid resolutions, 7 and 3 kilometers and 72 vertical levels. The 7 km run spanned 2 years (2005-2006) and produced 4 PB of data while the 3 km run will span one year and generate 4 BP of data. The downscaled reanalysis (MERRA-II Modern-Era Reanalysis for Research and Applications) will cover 15 years and generate 1 PB of data. Our efforts to address the big data challenges of climate science, we are moving toward a notion of Climate Analytics-as-a-Service (CAaaS), a specialization of the concept of business process-as-a-service that is an evolving extension of IaaS, PaaS, and SaaS enabled by cloud computing. In this presentation, we will describe two projects that demonstrate this shift. MERRA Analytic Services (MERRA/AS) is an example of cloud-enabled CAaaS. MERRA/AS enables MapReduce analytics over MERRA reanalysis data collection by bringing together the high-performance computing, scalable data management, and a domain-specific climate data services API. NASA's High-Performance Science Cloud (HPSC) is an example of the type of compute-storage fabric required to support CAaaS. The HPSC comprises a high speed Infinib and network, high performance file systems and object storage, and a virtual system environments specific for data intensive, science applications. These technologies are providing a new tier in the data and analytic services stack that helps connect earthbound, enterprise-level data and computational resources to new customers and new mobility-driven applications and modes of work. In our experience, CAaaS lowers the barriers and risk to organizational change, fosters innovation and experimentation, and provides the agility required to meet our customers' increasing and changing needs

Who was the agent? The neural correlates of reanalysis processes during sentence comprehension.

PubMed

Hirotani, Masako; Makuuchi, Michiru; Rüschemeyer, Shirley-Ann; Friederici, Angela D

2011-11-01

Sentence comprehension is a complex process. Besides identifying the meaning of each word and processing the syntactic structure of a sentence, it requires the computation of thematic information, that is, information about who did what to whom. The present fMRI study investigated the neural basis for thematic reanalysis (reanalysis of the thematic roles initially assigned to noun phrases in a sentence) and its interplay with syntactic reanalysis (reanalysis of the underlying syntactic structure originally constructed for a sentence). Thematic reanalysis recruited a network consisting of Broca's area, that is, the left pars triangularis (LPT), and the left posterior superior temporal gyrus, whereas only LPT showed greater sensitivity to syntactic reanalysis. These data provide direct evidence for a functional neuroanatomical basis for two linguistically motivated reanalysis processes during sentence comprehension. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Sensitivity of the weather research and forecasting model to parameterization schemes for regional climate of Nile River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tariku, Tebikachew Betru; Gan, Thian Yew

2018-06-01

Regional climate models (RCMs) have been used to simulate rainfall at relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions useful for sustainable water resources planning, design and management. In this study, the sensitivity of the RCM, weather research and forecasting (WRF), in modeling the regional climate of the Nile River Basin (NRB) was investigated using 31 combinations of different physical parameterization schemes which include cumulus (Cu), microphysics (MP), planetary boundary layer (PBL), land-surface model (LSM) and radiation (Ra) schemes. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data as initial and lateral boundary conditions, WRF was configured to model the climate of NRB at a resolution of 36 km with 30 vertical levels. The 1999-2001 simulations using WRF were compared with satellite data combined with ground observation and the NCEP reanalysis data for 2 m surface air temperature (T2), rainfall, short- and longwave downward radiation at the surface (SWRAD, LWRAD). Overall, WRF simulated more accurate T2 and LWRAD (with correlation coefficients >0.8 and low root-mean-square error) than SWRAD and rainfall for the NRB. Further, the simulation of rainfall is more sensitive to PBL, Cu and MP schemes than other schemes of WRF. For example, WRF simulated less biased rainfall with Kain-Fritsch combined with MYJ than with YSU as the PBL scheme. The simulation of T2 is more sensitive to LSM and Ra than to Cu, PBL and MP schemes selected, SWRAD is more sensitive to MP and Ra than to Cu, LSM and PBL schemes, and LWRAD is more sensitive to LSM, Ra and PBL than Cu, and MP schemes. In summary, the following combination of schemes simulated the most representative regional climate of NRB: WSM3 microphysics, KF cumulus, MYJ PBL, RRTM longwave radiation and Dudhia shortwave radiation schemes, and Noah LSM. The above configuration of WRF coupled to the Noah LSM has also been shown to simulate representative regional climate of NRB over 1980-2001 which include a combination of wet and dry years of the NRB.

Sensitivity of the weather research and forecasting model to parameterization schemes for regional climate of Nile River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tariku, Tebikachew Betru; Gan, Thian Yew

2017-08-01

Regional climate models (RCMs) have been used to simulate rainfall at relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions useful for sustainable water resources planning, design and management. In this study, the sensitivity of the RCM, weather research and forecasting (WRF), in modeling the regional climate of the Nile River Basin (NRB) was investigated using 31 combinations of different physical parameterization schemes which include cumulus (Cu), microphysics (MP), planetary boundary layer (PBL), land-surface model (LSM) and radiation (Ra) schemes. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data as initial and lateral boundary conditions, WRF was configured to model the climate of NRB at a resolution of 36 km with 30 vertical levels. The 1999-2001 simulations using WRF were compared with satellite data combined with ground observation and the NCEP reanalysis data for 2 m surface air temperature (T2), rainfall, short- and longwave downward radiation at the surface (SWRAD, LWRAD). Overall, WRF simulated more accurate T2 and LWRAD (with correlation coefficients >0.8 and low root-mean-square error) than SWRAD and rainfall for the NRB. Further, the simulation of rainfall is more sensitive to PBL, Cu and MP schemes than other schemes of WRF. For example, WRF simulated less biased rainfall with Kain-Fritsch combined with MYJ than with YSU as the PBL scheme. The simulation of T2 is more sensitive to LSM and Ra than to Cu, PBL and MP schemes selected, SWRAD is more sensitive to MP and Ra than to Cu, LSM and PBL schemes, and LWRAD is more sensitive to LSM, Ra and PBL than Cu, and MP schemes. In summary, the following combination of schemes simulated the most representative regional climate of NRB: WSM3 microphysics, KF cumulus, MYJ PBL, RRTM longwave radiation and Dudhia shortwave radiation schemes, and Noah LSM. The above configuration of WRF coupled to the Noah LSM has also been shown to simulate representative regional climate of NRB over 1980-2001 which include a combination of wet and dry years of the NRB.

Correcting surface solar radiation of two data assimilation systems against FLUXNET observations in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Lei; Lee, Xuhui; Liu, Shoudong

2013-09-01

Solar radiation at the Earth's surface is an important driver of meteorological and ecological processes. The objective of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of the reanalysis solar radiation produced by NARR (North American Regional Reanalysis) and MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) against the FLUXNET measurements in North America. We found that both assimilation systems systematically overestimated the surface solar radiation flux on the monthly and annual scale, with an average bias error of +37.2 Wm-2 for NARR and of +20.2 Wm-2 for MERRA. The bias errors were larger under cloudy skies than under clear skies. A postreanalysis algorithm consisting of empirical relationships between model bias, a clearness index, and site elevation was proposed to correct the model errors. Results show that the algorithm can remove the systematic bias errors for both FLUXNET calibration sites (sites used to establish the algorithm) and independent validation sites. After correction, the average annual mean bias errors were reduced to +1.3 Wm-2 for NARR and +2.7 Wm-2 for MERRA. Applying the correction algorithm to the global domain of MERRA brought the global mean surface incoming shortwave radiation down by 17.3 W m-2 to 175.5 W m-2. Under the constraint of the energy balance, other radiation and energy balance terms at the Earth's surface, estimated from independent global data products, also support the need for a downward adjustment of the MERRA surface solar radiation.

Evaluation of satellite and reanalysis‐based global net surface energy flux and uncertainty estimates

PubMed Central

Allan, Richard P.; Mayer, Michael; Hyder, Patrick; Loeb, Norman G.; Roberts, Chris D.; Valdivieso, Maria; Edwards, John M.; Vidale, Pier‐Luigi

2017-01-01

Abstract The net surface energy flux is central to the climate system yet observational limitations lead to substantial uncertainty. A combination of satellite‐derived radiative fluxes at the top of atmosphere adjusted using the latest estimation of the net heat uptake of the Earth system, and the atmospheric energy tendencies and transports from the ERA‐Interim reanalysis are used to estimate surface energy flux globally. To consider snowmelt and improve regional realism, land surface fluxes are adjusted through a simple energy balance approach at each grid point. This energy adjustment is redistributed over the oceans to ensure energy conservation and maintain realistic global ocean heat uptake, using a weighting function to avoid meridional discontinuities. Calculated surface energy fluxes are evaluated through comparison to ocean reanalyses. Derived turbulent energy flux variability is compared with the Objectively Analyzed air‐sea Fluxes (OAFLUX) product, and inferred meridional energy transports in the global ocean and the Atlantic are also evaluated using observations. Uncertainties in surface fluxes are investigated using a variety of approaches including comparison with a range of atmospheric reanalysis products. Decadal changes in the global mean and the interhemispheric energy imbalances are quantified, and present day cross‐equator heat transports are reevaluated at 0.22 ± 0.15 PW (petawatts) southward by the atmosphere and 0.32 ± 0.16 PW northward by the ocean considering the observed ocean heat sinks. PMID:28804697

Climatic changes in the troposphere, stratosphere and lower mesosphere in 1979-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perevedentsev, Y. P.; Shantalinskiy, K. M.; Guryanov, V. V.

2018-01-01

Changes in thermal characteristics in the atmospheric layer from 1000 to 0,1hPa are studied based on reanalysis data. It was demonstrated that during 1979-2016 temperature increased in the troposphere in January and July, while cooling was observed in the stratosphere, and air warming in lower mesosphere in summer. Most pronounced long-period cyclic changes were registered for temperature in the upper stratosphere and the lower mesosphere, and for ozone mixing ratio in the middle stratosphere.

Inter-annual Tropospheric Aerosol Variability in Late Twentieth Century and its Impact on Tropical Atlantic and West African Climate by Direct and Semi-direct Effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Evans, Katherine J; Hack, James J; Truesdale, John

A new high-resolution (0.9more » $$^{\\circ}$$x1.25$$^{\\circ}$$ in the horizontal) global tropospheric aerosol dataset with monthly resolution is generated using the finite-volume configuration of Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) coupled to a bulk aerosol model and forced with recent estimates of surface emissions for the latter part of twentieth century. The surface emissions dataset is constructed from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) decadal-resolution surface emissions dataset to include REanalysis of TROpospheric chemical composition (RETRO) wildfire monthly emissions dataset. Experiments forced with the new tropospheric aerosol dataset and conducted using the spectral configuration of CAM4 with a T85 truncation (1.4$$^{\\circ}$$x1.4$$^{\\circ}$$) with prescribed twentieth century observed sea surface temperature, sea-ice and greenhouse gases reveal that variations in tropospheric aerosol levels can induce significant regional climate variability on the inter-annual timescales. Regression analyses over tropical Atlantic and Africa reveal that increasing dust aerosols can cool the North African landmass and shift convection southwards from West Africa into the Gulf of Guinea in the spring season in the simulations. Further, we find that increasing carbonaceous aerosols emanating from the southwestern African savannas can cool the region significantly and increase the marine stratocumulus cloud cover over the southeast tropical Atlantic ocean by aerosol-induced diabatic heating of the free troposphere above the low clouds. Experiments conducted with CAM4 coupled to a slab ocean model suggest that present day aerosols can shift the ITCZ southwards over the tropical Atlantic and can reduce the ocean mixed layer temperature beneath the increased marine stratocumulus clouds in the southeastern tropical Atlantic.« less

Causes and Consequences of Exceptional North Atlantic Heat Loss in Recent Winters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Josey, Simon; Grist, Jeremy; Duchez, Aurelie; Frajka-Williams, Eleanor; Hirschi, Joel; Marsh, Robert; Sinha, Bablu

2016-04-01

The mid-high latitude North Atlantic loses large amounts of heat to the atmosphere in winter leading to dense water formation. An examination of reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR) reveals that heat loss in the recent winters 2013-14 and 2014-15 was exceptionally strong. The causes and consequences of this extraordinary ocean heat loss will be discussed. In 2013-2014, the net air-sea heat flux anomaly averaged over the whole winter exceeded 100 Wm-2 in the eastern subpolar gyre (the most extreme in the period since 1979 spanned by ERA-Interim). The causes of this extreme heat loss will be shown to be severe latent and sensible heat fluxes driven primarily by anomalously strong westerly airflows from North America and northerly airflows originating in the Nordic Seas. The associated sea level pressure anomaly field reflects the dominance of the second mode of atmospheric variability, the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) over the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in this winter. The extreme winter heat loss had a significant impact on the ocean extending from the sea surface into the deeper layers and a re-emergent cold Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly is evident in November 2014. The following winter 2014-15 experienced further extreme heat loss that served to amplify the strength of the re-emergent SST anomaly. By summer 2015, an unprecedented cold mid-latitude North Atlantic Ocean surface temperature anomaly is evident in observations and has been widely referred to as the 'big blue blob'. The role played by the extreme surface heat loss in the preceding winters in generating this feature and it subsequent evolution through winter 2015-16 will be explored.

Stratospheric Response to Intraseasonal Changes in Incoming Solar Radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garfinkel, Chaim; silverman, vered; harnik, nili; Erlich, caryn

2016-04-01

Superposed epoch analysis of meteorological reanalysis data is used to demonstrate a significant connection between intraseasonal solar variability and temperatures in the stratosphere. Decreasing solar flux leads to a cooling of the tropical upper stratosphere above 7hPa, while increasing solar flux leads to a warming of the tropical upper stratosphere above 7hPa, after a lag of approximately six to ten days. Late winter (February-March) Arctic stratospheric temperatures also change in response to changing incoming solar flux in a manner consistent with that seen on the 11 year timescale: ten to thirty days after the start of decreasing solar flux, the polar cap warms during the easterly phase of the Quasi-Biennal Oscillation. In contrast, cooling is present after decreasing solar flux during the westerly phase of the Quasi-Biennal Oscillation (though it is less robust than the warming during the easterly phase). The estimated composite mean changes in Northern Hemisphere upper stratospheric (~ 5hPa) polar temperatures exceed 8K, and are potentially a source of intraseasonal predictability for the surface. These changes in polar temperature are consistent with the changes in wave driving entering the stratosphere. Garfinkel, C.I., V. Silverman, N. Harnik, C. Erlich, Y. Riz (2015), Stratospheric Response to Intraseasonal Changes in Incoming Solar Radiation, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 7648-7660. doi: 10.1002/2015JD023244.

Linking North American Summer Ozone Pollution Episodes to Subseasonal Atmospheric Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, E. C.; Watt-Meyer, O.; Kushner, P. J.; Jones, D. B. A.

2017-12-01

Ozone concentrations in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) are positively correlated with surface air temperature due to shared influences including incident solar radiation and PBL stagnancy, as well as the temperature-sensitive emission of ozone precursor compounds. While previous studies have linked heat waves in North America to modes of subseasonal atmospheric variability, such analyses have not been applied to summertime ozone pollution episodes. This study investigates a possible link between subseasonal atmospheric variability in reanalysis data and summertime ozone pollution episodes identified in almost thirty years of in-situ measurements from the Air Quality System (AQS) network in the United States. AQS stations are grouped into regions likely to experience simultaneous extreme ozone concentrations using statistical clustering methods. Composite meteorological patterns are calculated for ozone episodes in each of these regions. The same analysis is applied to heat waves identified in AQS temperature records for comparison. Local meteorological features during typical ozone episodes include extreme temperatures and reduced cloud cover related to anomalous synoptic-scale anticyclonic circulation aloft. These anticyclonic anomalies are typically embedded in wave trains extending from the North Pacific to North Atlantic. Spectral analysis of these wave trains reveals that low-frequency standing waves play a prominent role. These long-lived circulation patterns may provide a means to increase air quality prediction lead-times and to estimate the frequency of ozone pollution episodes under climate change.

Does the hemispheric energy balance set the mean location of ITCZ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakuba, Maria Z.; Stephens, Graeme L.; Lee, Tong; Rapp, Anita D.; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.

2017-04-01

The Earth's energy balance has been studied for many decades and yet a number of challenges remain in quantifying it globally and in understanding its behavior regionally. Recent studies combine the total and atmospheric heat budgets derived from satellite-based TOA irradiances and atmospheric reanalysis, respectively, to infer the hemispheric surface heat budget as their residual. Here, we propose an approach that takes the perspective of the ocean, deriving the multi-annual surface net heat flux as the residual of the hemispheric ocean heat storage (OHS) and the cross-equatorial ocean heat transport (COHT). The latter is taken from ocean reanalysis (i.e. ECCOv4 and ORA-S4), while the OHS is derived from in-situ temperature profiles covering the ARGO period 2005-2015. Notable features of the hemispheric energy balance established is the dominance of the Southern hemispheric OHS (0.9 Wm-2) and the slight inter-hemispheric energy imbalance that yields a net cross-equatorial heat transport from the Southern to the Northern hemisphere. This is achieved by the oceans transporting about 0.2-0.4 PW northward across the equator, accompanied by a slight southward transport of heat by the atmosphere (0.1-0.2 PW). The main features of the hemispheric energy balance portrayed here are largely in line with earlier estimates and represent the energetic framework within which the tropical circulation acts to distribute heat across the equator. In present-day conditions, the ITCZ is located slightly North of the equator at about 7 N in the multi-annual mean, indicating that the southern Hadley Cell fluxes heat across the equator towards the Southern hemisphere. It has been proposed in recent studies that the global mean northward COHT plays a role in setting the ITCZ location, a relationship that we examine by analysis of an observation-based (GPCP, TRMM, ERA-I) dataset of ITCZ location and ocean heat transport from reanalysis. Additionally, we examine the co-variability of ITCZ location and other energy budget components as well to elucidate on the energetic drivers of tropical large-scale circulation. We find the direction of COHT and ITCZ location in the Indo-Pacific to be largely anti-correlated, both showing significant inter-annual variability that is likely driven by SST variability linked to ENSO. As expected, the Atlantic sets the global mean northward COHT and shows much less inter-annual variability. From this alone, there is evidence that, at least locally, the COHT is not the only driver of ITCZ location in the Pacific.

Abnormal Winter Melting of the Arctic Sea Ice Cap Observed by the Spaceborne Passive Microwave Sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Seongsuk; Yi, Yu

2016-12-01

The spatial size and variation of Arctic sea ice play an important role in Earth’s climate system. These are affected by conditions in the polar atmosphere and Arctic sea temperatures. The Arctic sea ice concentration is calculated from brightness temperature data derived from the Defense Meteorological Satellite program (DMSP) F13 Special Sensor Microwave/Imagers (SSMI) and the DMSP F17 Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) sensors. Many previous studies point to significant reductions in sea ice and their causes. We investigated the variability of Arctic sea ice using the daily sea ice concentration data from passive microwave observations to identify the sea ice melting regions near the Arctic polar ice cap. We discovered the abnormal melting of the Arctic sea ice near the North Pole during the summer and the winter. This phenomenon is hard to explain only surface air temperature or solar heating as suggested by recent studies. We propose a hypothesis explaining this phenomenon. The heat from the deep sea in Arctic Ocean ridges and/ or the hydrothermal vents might be contributing to the melting of Arctic sea ice. This hypothesis could be verified by the observation of warm water column structure below the melting or thinning arctic sea ice through the project such as Coriolis dataset for reanalysis (CORA).

Air temperature exposure and outdoor occupational injuries: a significant cold effect in Central Italy.

PubMed

Morabito, Marco; Iannuccilli, Maurizio; Crisci, Alfonso; Capecchi, Valerio; Baldasseroni, Alberto; Orlandini, Simone; Gensini, Gian Franco

2014-10-01

To investigate the short-term effect of air temperature on outdoor occupational injuries (out_OI) in Central Italy, also by taking different geographical factors and employment sectors of workers into account. Out_OI for all of Tuscany (Central Italy), from 2003 to 2010 (n=162,399), were provided by the National Institute of Insurance for Occupational Illness and Injury. Representative daily meteorological data of the geographical area under study were obtained from the European Reanalysis-interim climatological reanalysis archive. Relationships between short-term changes in air temperature and out_OI were studied through Generalised Additive Models. The exposure-response curves of out_OI and short-term changes in air temperature generally showed significant out_OI increases when cold conditions occurred. The air temperature breakpoint corresponded to the 10th centile (-0.8°C) of the air temperature time series used in this study: a 1°C decrease in temperature below the 10th centile corresponded to a 2.3% (CI 1.3% to 3.3%) increase of out_OI throughout all of Tuscany. The cold effect was strongest in plain areas, especially when out_OI occurred in vehicles other than cars. No relationships of injuries with temperature extremes were observed in workers who generally spend half or most of their time outdoors, such as construction, land and forestry workers. However, these latter outdoor workers showed significant linear associations of injuries with typical (far-from-extreme) temperatures. This large population-based study highlights the significant and independent effects of short-term air temperature changes (especially cold) in triggering out_OI. These findings represent the first step towards developing a geographically differentiated, operative outdoor-temperature-occupational-health warning system aimed at preventing outdoor work injuries. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Comparison of Malaria Simulations Driven by Meteorological Observations and Reanalysis Products in Senegal

PubMed Central

Diouf, Ibrahima; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Deme, Abdoulaye; Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andrew P.; Cisse, Moustapha; Sy, Ibrahima; Dia, Ibrahima; Ermert, Volker; Ndione, Jacques-André; Gaye, Amadou Thierno

2017-01-01

The analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of climate parameters is crucial to study the impact of climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases such as malaria. The use of malaria models is an alternative way of producing potential malaria historical data for Senegal due to the lack of reliable observations for malaria outbreaks over a long time period. Consequently, here we use the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM), driven by different climatic datasets, in order to study and validate simulated malaria parameters over Senegal. The findings confirm that the risk of malaria transmission is mainly linked to climate variables such as rainfall and temperature as well as specific landscape characteristics. For the whole of Senegal, a lag of two months is generally observed between the peak of rainfall in August and the maximum number of reported malaria cases in October. The malaria transmission season usually takes place from September to November, corresponding to the second peak of temperature occurring in October. Observed malaria data from the Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme (PNLP, National Malaria control Programme in Senegal) and outputs from the meteorological data used in this study were compared. The malaria model outputs present some consistencies with observed malaria dynamics over Senegal, and further allow the exploration of simulations performed with reanalysis data sets over a longer time period. The simulated malaria risk significantly decreased during the 1970s and 1980s over Senegal. This result is consistent with the observed decrease of malaria vectors and malaria cases reported by field entomologists and clinicians in the literature. The main differences between model outputs and observations regard amplitude, but can be related not only to reanalysis deficiencies but also to other environmental and socio-economic factors that are not included in this mechanistic malaria model framework. The present study can be considered as a validation of the reliability of reanalysis to be used as inputs for the calculation of malaria parameters in the Sahel using dynamical malaria models. PMID:28946705

Deep Orographic Gravity Wave Dynamics over Subantarctic Islands as Observed and Modeled during the Deep Propagating Gravity Wave Experiment (DEEPWAVE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eckermann, S. D.; Broutman, D.; Ma, J.; Doyle, J. D.; Pautet, P. D.; Taylor, M. J.; Bossert, K.; Williams, B. P.; Fritts, D. C.; Smith, R. B.; Kuhl, D.; Hoppel, K.; McCormack, J. P.; Ruston, B. C.; Baker, N. L.; Viner, K.; Whitcomb, T.; Hogan, T. F.; Peng, M.

2016-12-01

The Deep Propagating Gravity Wave Experiment (DEEPWAVE) was an international aircraft-based field program to observe and study the end-to-end dynamics of atmospheric gravity waves from 0-100 km altitude and the effects on atmospheric circulations. On 14 July 2014, aircraft remote-sensing instruments detected large-amplitude gravity-wave oscillations within mesospheric airglow and sodium layers downstream of the Auckland Islands, located 1000 km south of Christchurch, New Zealand. A high-altitude reanalysis and a three-dimensional Fourier gravity wave model are used to investigate the dynamics of this event from the surface to the mesosphere. At 0700 UTC when first observations were made, surface flow across the islands' terrain generated linear three-dimensional wavefields that propagated rapidly to ˜78 km altitude, where intense breaking occurred in a narrow layer beneath a zero-wind region at ˜83 km altitude. In the following hours, the altitude of weak winds descended under the influence of a large-amplitude migrating semidiurnal tide, leading to intense breaking of these wavefields in subsequent observations starting at 1000 UTC. The linear Fourier model constrained by upstream reanalysis reproduces the salient aspects of observed wavefields, including horizontal wavelengths, phase orientations, temperature and vertical displacement amplitudes, heights and locations of incipient wave breaking, and momentum fluxes. Wave breaking has huge effects on local circulations, with inferred layer-averaged westward mean-flow accelerations of ˜350 m s-1 hour-1 and dynamical heating rates of ˜8 K hour-1, supporting recent speculation of important impacts of orographic gravity waves from subantarctic islands on the mean circulation and climate of the middle atmosphere during austral winter. We also study deep orographic gravity waves from islands during DEEPWAVE more widely using observations from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and high-resolution high-altitude numerical weather prediction models.

Interannual and Decadal Changes in Salinity in the Oceanic Subtropical Gyres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulusu, Subrahmanyam

2017-04-01

There is evidence that the global water cycle has been undergoing an intensification over several decades as a response to increasing atmospheric temperatures, particularly in regions with skewed evaporation - precipitation (E-P) patterns such as the oceanic subtropical gyres. Moreover, observational data (rain gauges, etc.) are quite sparse over such areas due to the inaccessibility of open ocean regions. In this work, a comparison of observational and model simulations are conducted to highlight the potential applications of satellite derived salinity from NASA Aquarius Salinity mission, NASA Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and ESA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP). We explored spatial and temporal salinity changes (and trends) in surface and subsurface in the oceanic subtropical gyres using Argo floats salinity data, Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis, Estimating the Circulations & Climate of the Ocean GECCO (German ECCO) model simulations, and Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Our results based on SODA reanalysis reveals that a positive rising trend in sea surface salinity in the subtropical gyres emphasizing evidence for decadal intensification in the surface forcing in these regions. Zonal drift in the location of the salinity maximum of the south Pacific, north Atlantic, and south Indian regions implies a change in the mean near-surface currents responsible for advecting high salinity waters into the region. Also we found out that an overall salinity increase within the mixed layer, and a subsurface salinity decrease at depths greater than 200m in the global subtropical gyres over 61 years. We determine that freshwater fluxes at the air-sea interface are the primary drivers of the sea surface salinity (SSS) signature over these open ocean regions by quantifying the advective contribution within the surface layer. This was demonstrated through a mixed layer salinity budget in each subtropical gyre based on the vertically integrated advection and entrainment of salt. Our analysis of decadal variability of fluxes into and out of the gyres reveals little change in the strength of the mean currents through this region despite an increase in the annual export of salt in all subtropical gyres, with the meridional component dominating the zonal. This study reveals that the salt content of E-P maximum waters advected into the subtropical gyres is increasing over time. A combination of increasing direct evaporation over the regions with increasing remote evaporation over nearby E-P maxima is believed to be the main driver in increasing salinity of the subtropical oceans, suggesting an intensification of the global water cycle over decadal timescales.

Use and Limitations of a Climate-Quality Data Record to Study Temperature Trends on the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Comiso, Josefino C.; Shuman, Christopher A.; Koenig, Lora S.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.

2011-01-01

Enhanced melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented in recent literature along with surface-temperature increases measured using infrared satellite data since 1981. Using a recently-developed climate-quality data record, 11- and 12-year trends in the clear-sky ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet have been studied using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) IST product. Daily and monthly MODIS ISTs of the Greenland Ice Sheet beginning on 1 March 2000 and continuing through 31 December 2010 are now available at 6.25-km spatial resolution on a polar stereographic grid as described in Hall et al. (submitted). This record will be elevated in status to a climate-data record (CDR) when more years of data become available either from the MODIS on the Terra or Aqua satellites, or from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) to be launched in October 2011. Maps showing the maximum extent of melt for the entire ice sheet and for the six major drainage basins have been developed from the MODIS IST dataset. Twelve-year trends of the duration of the melt season on the ice sheet vary in different drainage basins with some basins melting progressively earlier over the course of the study period. Some (but not all) of the basins also show a progressively-longer duration of melt. IST 12-year trends are compared with in-situ data, and climate data from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Reanalysis.

Quantifying the added value of convection-permitting climate simulations in complex terrain: a systematic evaluation of WRF over the Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karki, Ramchandra; Hasson, Shabeh ul; Gerlitz, Lars; Schickhoff, Udo; Scholten, Thomas; Böhner, Jürgen

2017-07-01

Mesoscale dynamical refinements of global climate models or atmospheric reanalysis have shown their potential to resolve intricate atmospheric processes, their land surface interactions, and subsequently, realistic distribution of climatic fields in complex terrains. Given that such potential is yet to be explored within the central Himalayan region of Nepal, we investigate the skill of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with different spatial resolutions in reproducing the spatial, seasonal, and diurnal characteristics of the near-surface air temperature and precipitation as well as the spatial shifts in the diurnal monsoonal precipitation peak over the Khumbu (Everest), Rolwaling, and adjacent southern areas. Therefore, the ERA-Interim (0.75°) reanalysis has been dynamically refined to 25, 5, and 1 km (D1, D2, and D3) for one complete hydrological year (October 2014-September 2015), using the one-way nested WRF model run with mild nudging and parameterized convection for the outer but explicitly resolved convection for the inner domains. Our results suggest that D3 realistically reproduces the monsoonal precipitation, as compared to its underestimation by D1 but overestimation by D2. All three resolutions, however, overestimate precipitation from the westerly disturbances, owing to simulating anomalously higher intensity of few intermittent events. Temperatures are generally reproduced well by all resolutions; however, winter and pre-monsoon seasons feature a high cold bias for high elevations while lower elevations show a simultaneous warm bias. Unlike higher resolutions, D1 fails to realistically reproduce the regional-scale nocturnal monsoonal peak precipitation observed in the Himalayan foothills and its diurnal shift towards high elevations, whereas D2 resolves these characteristics but exhibits a limited skill in reproducing such a peak on the river valley scale due to the limited representation of the narrow valleys at 5 km resolution. Nonetheless, featuring a substantial skill over D1 and D2, D3 simulates almost realistic shapes of the seasonal and diurnal precipitation and the peak timings even on valley scales. These findings clearly suggest an added value of the convective-scale resolutions in realistically resolving the topoclimates over the central Himalayas, which in turn allows simulating their interactions with the synoptic-scale weather systems prevailing over high Asia.

CYGNSS Surface Wind Observations and Surface Flux Estimates within Low-Latitude Extratropical Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crespo, J.; Posselt, D. J.

2017-12-01

The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS), launched in December 2016, aims to improve estimates of surface wind speeds over the tropical oceans. While CYGNSS's core mission is to provide better estimates of surface winds within the core of tropical cyclones, previous research has shown that the constellation, with its orbital inclination of 35°, also has the ability to observe numerous extratropical cyclones that form in the lower latitudes. Along with its high spatial and temporal resolution, CYGNSS can provide new insights into how extratropical cyclones develop and evolve, especially in the presence of thick clouds and precipitation. We will demonstrate this by presenting case studies of multiple extratropical cyclones observed by CYGNSS early on in its mission in both Northern and Southern Hemispheres. By using the improved estimates of surface wind speeds from CYGNSS, we can obtain better estimates of surface latent and sensible heat fluxes within and around extratropical cyclones. Surface heat fluxes, driven by surface winds and strong vertical gradients of water vapor and temperature, play a key role in marine cyclogenesis as they increase instability within the boundary layer and may contribute to extreme marine cyclogenesis. In the past, it has been difficult to estimate surface heat fluxes from space borne instruments, as these fluxes cannot be observed directly from space, and deficiencies in spatial coverage and attenuation from clouds and precipitation lead to inaccurate estimates of surface flux components, such as surface wind speeds. While CYGNSS only contributes estimates of surface wind speeds, we can combine this data with other reanalysis and satellite data to provide improved estimates of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes within and around extratropical cyclones and throughout the entire CYGNSS mission.

What Controls the Arctic Lower Stratosphere Temperature?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The temperature of the Arctic lower stratosphere is critical for understanding polar ozone levels. As temperatures drop below about 195 K, polar stratospheric clouds form, which then convert HCl and ClONO2 into reactive forms that are catalysts for ozone loss reactions. Hence, the lower stratospheric temperature during the March period is a key parameter for understanding polar ozone losses. The temperature is basically understood to be a result of planetary waves which drive the polar temperature away from a cold "radiative equilibrium" state. This is demonstrated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis calculations of the heat flux and the mean polar temperature. The temperature during the March period is fundamentally driven by the integrated impact of large scale waves moving from the troposphere to the stratosphere during the January through February period.

Using MERRA Gridded Innovations for Quantifying Uncertainties in Analysis Fields and Diagnosing Observing System Inhomogeneities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

da Silva, Arlindo; Redder, Christopher

2010-01-01

MERRA is a NASA reanalysis for the satellite era using a major new version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5). The project focuses on historical analyses of the hydrological cycle on a broad range of weather and climate time scales and places the NASA EOS suite of observations in a climate context. The characterization of uncertainty in reanalysis fields is a commonly requested feature by users of such data. While intercomparison with reference data sets is common practice for ascertaining the realism of the datasets, such studies typically are restricted to long term climatological statistics and seldom provide state dependent measures of the uncertainties involved. In principle, variational data assimilation algorithms have the ability of producing error estimates for the analysis variables (typically surface pressure, winds, temperature, moisture and ozone) consistent with the assumed background and observation error statistics. However, these "perceived error estimates" are expensive to obtain and are limited by the somewhat simplistic errors assumed in the algorithm. The observation minus forecast residuals (innovations) by-product of any assimilation system constitutes a powerful tool for estimating the systematic and random errors in the analysis fields. Unfortunately, such data is usually not readily available with reanalysis products, often requiring the tedious decoding of large datasets and not so-user friendly file formats. With MERRA we have introduced a gridded version of the observations/innovations used in the assimilation process, using the same grid and data formats as the regular datasets. Such dataset empowers the user with the ability of conveniently performing observing system related analysis and error estimates. The scope of this dataset will be briefly described. We will present a systematic analysis of MERRA innovation time series for the conventional observing system, including maximum-likelihood estimates of background and observation errors, as well as global bias estimates. Starting with the joint PDF of innovations and analysis increments at observation locations we propose a technique for diagnosing bias among the observing systems, and document how these contextual biases have evolved during the satellite era covered by MERRA.

Using MERRA Gridded Innovation for Quantifying Uncertainties in Analysis Fields and Diagnosing Observing System Inhomogeneities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silva, A.; Redder, C. R.

2010-12-01

MERRA is a NASA reanalysis for the satellite era using a major new version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5). The Project focuses on historical analyses of the hydrological cycle on a broad range of weather and climate time scales and places the NASA EOS suite of observations in a climate context. The characterization of uncertainty in reanalysis fields is a commonly requested feature by users of such data. While intercomparison with reference data sets is common practice for ascertaining the realism of the datasets, such studies typically are restricted to long term climatological statistics and seldom provide state dependent measures of the uncertainties involved. In principle, variational data assimilation algorithms have the ability of producing error estimates for the analysis variables (typically surface pressure, winds, temperature, moisture and ozone) consistent with the assumed background and observation error statistics. However, these "perceived error estimates" are expensive to obtain and are limited by the somewhat simplistic errors assumed in the algorithm. The observation minus forecast residuals (innovations) by-product of any assimilation system constitutes a powerful tool for estimating the systematic and random errors in the analysis fields. Unfortunately, such data is usually not readily available with reanalysis products, often requiring the tedious decoding of large datasets and not so-user friendly file formats. With MERRA we have introduced a gridded version of the observations/innovations used in the assimilation process, using the same grid and data formats as the regular datasets. Such dataset empowers the user with the ability of conveniently performing observing system related analysis and error estimates. The scope of this dataset will be briefly described. We will present a systematic analysis of MERRA innovation time series for the conventional observing system, including maximum-likelihood estimates of background and observation errors, as well as global bias estimates. Starting with the joint PDF of innovations and analysis increments at observation locations we propose a technique for diagnosing bias among the observing systems, and document how these contextual biases have evolved during the satellite era covered by MERRA.

South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability and Trend: Its Links to Indo-Pacific SST Anomalies and Moist Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasanna, V.

2016-06-01

The warm (cold) phase of El Niño (La Niña) and its impact on all Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall (AISMR) relationship is explored for the past 100 years. The 103-year (1901-2003) data from the twentieth century reanalysis datasets (20CR) and other major reanalysis datasets for southwest monsoon season (JJAS) is utilized to find out the simultaneous influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-AISMR relationship. Two cases such as wet, dry monsoon years associated with ENSO(+) (El Niño), ENSO(-) (La Niña) and Non-ENSO (neutral) events have been discussed in detail using observed rainfall and three-dimensional 20CR dataset. The dry and wet years associated with ENSO and Non-ENSO periods show significant differences in the spatial pattern of rainfall associated with three-dimensional atmospheric composite, the 20CR dataset has captured the anomalies quite well. During wet (dry) years, the rainfall is high (low), i.e. 10 % above (below) average from the long-term mean and this wet or dry condition occur both during ENSO and Non-ENSO phases. The Non-ENSO year dry or wet composites are also focused in detail to understand, where do the anomalous winds come from unlike in the ENSO case. The moisture transport is coherent with the changes in the spatial pattern of AISMR and large-scale feature in the 20CR dataset. Recent 50-year trend (1951-2000) is also analyzed from various available observational and reanalysis datasets to see the influence of Indo-Pacific SST and moist processes on the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall trend. Apart from the Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST), the moisture convergence and moisture transport among India (IND), Equatorial Indian Ocean (IOC) and tropical western pacific (WNP) is also important in modifying the wet or dry cycles over India. The mutual interaction among IOC, WNP and IND in seasonal timescales is significant in modifying wet and dry cycles over the Indian region and the seasonal anomalies.

A Useful Tool for Atmospheric Correction and Surface Temperature Estimation of Landsat Infrared Thermal Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivalland, Vincent; Tardy, Benjamin; Huc, Mireille; Hagolle, Olivier; Marcq, Sébastien; Boulet, Gilles

2016-04-01

Land Surface temperature (LST) is a critical variable for studying the energy and water budgets at the Earth surface, and is a key component of many aspects of climate research and services. The Landsat program jointly carried out by NASA and USGS has been providing thermal infrared data for 40 years, but no associated LST product has been yet routinely proposed to community. To derive LST values, radiances measured at sensor-level need to be corrected for the atmospheric absorption, the atmospheric emission and the surface emissivity effect. Until now, existing LST products have been generated with multi channel methods such as the Temperature/Emissivity Separation (TES) adapted to ASTER data or the generalized split-window algorithm adapted to MODIS multispectral data. Those approaches are ill-adapted to the Landsat mono-window data specificity. The atmospheric correction methodology usually used for Landsat data requires detailed information about the state of the atmosphere. This information may be obtained from radio-sounding or model atmospheric reanalysis and is supplied to a radiative transfer model in order to estimate atmospheric parameters for a given coordinate. In this work, we present a new automatic tool dedicated to Landsat thermal data correction which improves the common atmospheric correction methodology by introducing the spatial dimension in the process. The python tool developed during this study, named LANDARTs for LANDsat Automatic Retrieval of surface Temperature, is fully automatic and provides atmospheric corrections for a whole Landsat tile. Vertical atmospheric conditions are downloaded from the ERA Interim dataset from ECMWF meteorological organization which provides them at 0.125 degrees resolution, at a global scale and with a 6-hour-time step. The atmospheric correction parameters are estimated on the atmospheric grid using the commercial software MODTRAN, then interpolated to 30m resolution. We detail the processing steps implemented in LANDARTs and propose a local and spatial validation of the LST products from Landsat dataset archive over two climatically contrasted zones: south-west France and centre of Tunisia. In both sites, long term datasets of in-situ surface temperature measurements have been compared to LST obtained for Landsat data processed by LANDARTs and filtered from clouds. This temporal comparison presents RMSE between 1.84K and 2.55K. Then, Landsat LST products are compared to ASTER kinetic surface temperature products on two synchronous dates from both zones. This comparison presents satisfactory RMSE about 2.55K with a good correlation coefficient of 0.9. Finally, a sensibility analysis to the spatial variation of parameters presents a variability reaching 2K at the Landsat image scale and confirms the improved accuracy in Landsat LST estimation linked to our spatial approach.

Diagnosing Warm Season Precipitation Over the GCIP Region from a GCM and Reanalysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oglesby, Robert; Marshall, Susan; Roads, John; Robertson, Franklin R.

2000-01-01

A 45 year simulation using a global general circulation model (GCM), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model v.3 (CCM3), forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SST), and 39 years of global National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses were analyzed to determine Mississippi River basin warm season (May, June, July or MJJ) wet and dry year composites in the water and energy budgets. Years that have increased MJJ soil moisture over the GEWEX (Global Water and Energy Experiment) Continental Interior Project (GCIP) region also have high precipitation, lower surface temperature, decreased Bowen ratio, and reduced 500 hPa geopotential height (essentially reduced MJJ ridging). The reverse is true for years that have reduced MJJ soil moisture. Wet years are also accompanied by a general increase in moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico into the central U.S. There is some indication (though weaker) that soil moisture may then affect precipitation and other quantities and be affected in turn by 500 hPa geopotential heights. The correlations are somewhat low, however, demonstrating the difficulty in providing definitive physical links between the remote and local effects. Analysis of two individual years with an extreme wet event (1993) and an extreme dry event (1988) yields the same general relationships as with the wet and dry composites. The composites from this study are currently serving as the basis for a series of experiments aimed at determining the predictability of the land surface and remote SST on the Mississippi River basin and other large-scale river basins.

The Intra-Americas Sea low-level jet: overview and future research.

PubMed

Amador, Jorge A

2008-12-01

A relevant climate feature of the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS) is the low-level jet (IALLJ) dominating the IAS circulation, both in summer and winter; and yet it is practically unknown with regard to its nature, structure, interactions with mid-latitude and tropical phenomena, and its role in regional weather and climate. This paper updates IALLJ current knowledge and its contribution to IAS circulation-precipitation patterns and presents recent findings about the IALLJ based on first in situ observations during Phase 3 of the Experimento Climático en las Albercas de Agua Cálida (ECAC), an international field campaign to study IALLJ dynamics during July 2001. Nonhydrostatic fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) simulations were compared with observations and reanalysis. Large-scale circulation patterns of the IALLJ northern hemisphere summer and winter components suggest that trades, and so the IALLJ, are responding to land-ocean thermal contrasts during the summer season of each continent. The IALLJ is a natural component of the American monsoons as a result of the continent's approximate north-south land distribution. During warm (cold) El Niño-Southern Oscillation phases, winds associated with the IALLJ core (IALLJC) are stronger (weaker) than normal, so precipitation anomalies are positive (negative) in the western Caribbean near Central America and negative (positive) in the central IAS. During the ECAC Phase 3, strong surface winds associated with the IALLJ induced upwelling, cooling down the sea surface temperature by 1-2 degrees C. The atmospheric mixed layer height reached 1 km near the surface wind maximum below the IALLJC. Observations indicate that primary water vapor advection takes place in a shallow layer between the IALLJC and the ocean surface. Latent heat flux peaked below the IALLJC. Neither the reanalysis nor MM5 captured the observed thermodynamic and kinematic IALLJ structure. So far, IALLJ knowledge is based on either dynamically initialized data or simulations of global (regional) models, which implies that a more systematic and scientific approach is needed to improve it. The Intra-Americas Study of Climate Processes is a great regional opportunity to address trough field work, modeling, and process studies, many of the IALLJ unknown features.