Science.gov

Sample records for recurrent interannual climate

  1. Recurrent Interannual Climate Modes and Teleconnection Linking North America Warm Season Precipitation Anomalies to Asia Summer Monsoon Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K. M.; Weng, H. Y.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, we present results showing that summertime precipitation anomalies over North America and East Asia may be linked via pan-Pacific teleconnection patterns, which are components of two dominant recurring global climate modes. The first mode (Mode-1) features an inverse relationship between rainfall anomaly over the US Midwest/central to the eastern/southeastern regions, coupled to a mid-tropospheric high-low pressure system over the northwest and southeast of the US, which regulates low level moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico to the Midwest. The regional circulation pattern appears to be a part of a global climate mode spanning Eurasia, the North Pacific, North America, and the Atlantic. This mode is associated with coherent fluctuations of jetstream variability over East Asia, and Eurasia, SST in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. While Mode-1 is moderately correlated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), it appears to be distinct from it, with strong influences from mid-latitude or possibly from higher latitude processes. Results show that Mode-1 not only has an outstanding contribution to the great flood of 1993, it has large contribution to the US precipitation anomalies in other years. Also noted is an apparent increase in influence of Mode-1 on US summertime precipitation in the last two decades since 1977.

  2. Cirrus feedback on interannual climate fluctuations

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, C.; Dessler, A. E.; Zelinka, M. D.; Yang, P.; Wang, T.

    2014-12-28

    Cirrus clouds are not only important in determining the current climate, but also play an important role in climate change and variability. Analysis of satellite observations shows that the amount and altitude of cirrus clouds (optical depth <3.6, cloud top pressure <440 hPa) increase in response to inter-annual surface warming. Thus, cirrus clouds are likely to act as a positive feedback on short-term climate fluctuations, by reducing the planet’s ability to radiate longwave radiation to space in response to planetary surface warming. Using cirrus cloud radiative kernels, the magnitude of cirrus feedback is estimated to be 0.20±0.21W/m2/°C, which is comparable to the surface albedo feedback. Most of the cirrus feedback comes from increasing cloud amount in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) and subtropical upper troposphere.

  3. Recent frequency component changes in interannual climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peel, Murray C.; McMahon, Thomas A.

    2006-08-01

    The potential impact of climate change on the variability structure of climate has been investigated predominately through changes to extreme event frequency or the shape of the daily frequency distribution. Recent change to interannual climate variability has received less attention. Here we report that the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation has marginally decreased since 1970. However, within this marginal decrease the inter-decadal component of interannual variability has decreased for both temperature and precipitation. The temperature results are consistent across urban and rural stations indicating that they are not due to any urbanisation effect.

  4. Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

  5. Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

  6. Communicating uncertainty in seasonal and interannual climate forecasts in Europe.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Andrea L; Dessai, Suraje; de Bruin, Wändi Bruine

    2015-11-28

    Across Europe, organizations in different sectors are sensitive to climate variability and change, at a range of temporal scales from the seasonal to the interannual to the multi-decadal. Climate forecast providers face the challenge of communicating the uncertainty inherent in these forecasts to these decision-makers in a way that is transparent, understandable and does not lead to a false sense of certainty. This article reports the findings of a user-needs survey, conducted with 50 representatives of organizations in Europe from a variety of sectors (e.g. water management, forestry, energy, tourism, health) interested in seasonal and interannual climate forecasts. We find that while many participating organizations perform their own 'in house' risk analysis most require some form of processing and interpretation by forecast providers. However, we also find that while users tend to perceive seasonal and interannual forecasts to be useful, they often find them difficult to understand, highlighting the need for communication formats suitable for both expert and non-expert users. In addition, our results show that people tend to prefer familiar formats for receiving information about uncertainty. The implications of these findings for both the providers and users of climate information are discussed.

  7. Communicating uncertainty in seasonal and interannual climate forecasts in Europe

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, Andrea L.; Dessai, Suraje; de Bruin, Wändi Bruine

    2015-01-01

    Across Europe, organizations in different sectors are sensitive to climate variability and change, at a range of temporal scales from the seasonal to the interannual to the multi-decadal. Climate forecast providers face the challenge of communicating the uncertainty inherent in these forecasts to these decision-makers in a way that is transparent, understandable and does not lead to a false sense of certainty. This article reports the findings of a user-needs survey, conducted with 50 representatives of organizations in Europe from a variety of sectors (e.g. water management, forestry, energy, tourism, health) interested in seasonal and interannual climate forecasts. We find that while many participating organizations perform their own ‘in house’ risk analysis most require some form of processing and interpretation by forecast providers. However, we also find that while users tend to perceive seasonal and interannual forecasts to be useful, they often find them difficult to understand, highlighting the need for communication formats suitable for both expert and non-expert users. In addition, our results show that people tend to prefer familiar formats for receiving information about uncertainty. The implications of these findings for both the providers and users of climate information are discussed. PMID:26460115

  8. Seasonal and interannual variations of atmospheric CO2 and climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dettinger, M.D.; Ghil, M.

    1998-01-01

    Interannual variations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa are almost masked by the seasonal cycle and a strong trend; at the South Pole, the seasonal cycle is small and is almost lost in the trend and interannual variations. Singular-spectrum analysis (SSA) issued here to isolate and reconstruct interannual signals at both sites and to visualize recent decadal changes in the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle. Analysis of the Mauna Loa CO2 series illustrates a hastening of the CO2 seasonal cycle, a close temporal relation between Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean temperature trends and the amplitude of the seasonal CO2 cycle, and tentative ties between the latter and seasonality changes in temperature over the NH continents. Variations of the seasonal CO2 cycle at the South Pole differ from those at Mauna Loa: it is phase changes of the seasonal cycle at the South Pole, rather than amplitude changes, that parallel hemispheric and global temperature trends. The seasonal CO2 cycles exhibit earlier occurrences of the seasons by 7 days at Mauna Loa and 18 days at the South Pole. Interannual CO2 variations are shared at the two locations, appear to respond to tropical processes, and can be decomposed mostly into two periodicities, around (3 years)-1 and (4 years)-1, respectively. Joint SSA analyses of CO2 concentrations and tropical climate indices isolate a shared mode with a quasi-triennial (QT) period in which the CO2 and sea-surface temperature (SST) participation are in phase opposition. The other shared mode has a quasi-quadrennial (QQ) period and CO2 variations are in phase with the corresponding tropical SST variations throughout the tropics. Together these interannual modes exhibit a mean lag between tropical SSTs and CO2 variations of about 6-8 months, with SST leading. Analysis of the QT and QQ signals in global gridded SSTs, joint SSA of CO2 and ??13C isotopic ratios, and SSA of CO2 and NH-land temperatures indicate that the QT variations in

  9. Climate change enhances interannual variability of the Nile river flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siam, Mohamed S.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

    2017-04-01

    The human population living in the Nile basin countries is projected to double by 2050, approaching one billion. The increase in water demand associated with this burgeoning population will put significant stress on the available water resources. Potential changes in the flow of the Nile River as a result of climate change may further strain this critical situation. Here, we present empirical evidence from observations and consistent projections from climate model simulations suggesting that the standard deviation describing interannual variability of total Nile flow could increase by 50% (+/-35%) (multi-model ensemble mean +/- 1 standard deviation) in the twenty-first century compared to the twentieth century. We attribute the relatively large change in interannual variability of the Nile flow to projected increases in future occurrences of El Niño and La Niña events and to observed teleconnection between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Nile River flow. Adequacy of current water storage capacity and plans for additional storage capacity in the basin will need to be re-evaluated given the projected enhancement of interannual variability in the future flow of the Nile river.

  10. Forcings and chaos in interannual to decadal climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Hansen, J.

    1997-12-31

    We investigate the roles of climate forcings and chaos in climate variability via a series of climate simulations for 1979-95 in which we add forcings one-by-one. Ensembles of simulations are carried out for a given forcing to allow study of predictability, chaos and significance. These experiments suggest that most interannual climate variability in the period 1979-95 at middle and high latitudes is chaotic, i.e., unforced. But observed SST anomalies account for much of the variability over land at low latitudes and a small portion of the variability at high latitudes. The radiative forcings, both natural and anthropogenic, leave clear signatures in the simulated climate change. Pinatubo aerosols warm the stratosphere and cool the surface globally, and in most places cause a tendency for regional surface cooling. Ozone depletion cools the lower stratosphere, troposphere and surface, steepening the temperature lapse rate in the troposphere. But the well-mixed anthropogenic greenhouse gases cause a surface warming which, over the 17 year time scale, more than offsets these cooling mechanisms. Observed stratospheric, tropospheric and surface temperatures reveal evidence of climate response to stratospheric aerosols, ozone depletion, and increasing greenhouse gases.

  11. Strong Seasonality and Interannual Recurrence in Marine Myovirus Communities

    PubMed Central

    Chow, C.-E. T.; Johannessen, T.; Fuhrman, J. A.; Thingstad, T. F.; Sandaa, R. A.

    2013-01-01

    The temporal community dynamics and persistence of different viral types in the marine environment are still mostly obscure. Polymorphism of the major capsid protein gene, g23, was used to investigate the community composition dynamics of T4-like myoviruses in a North Atlantic fjord for a period of 2 years. A total of 160 unique operational taxonomic units (OTUs) were identified by terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (TRFLP) of the gene g23. Three major community profiles were identified (winter-spring, summer, and autumn), which resulted in a clear seasonal succession pattern. These seasonal transitions were recurrent over the 2 years and significantly correlated with progression of seawater temperature, Synechococcus abundance, and turbidity. The appearance of the autumn viral communities was concomitant with the occurrence of prominent Synechococcus blooms. As a whole, we found a highly dynamic T4-like viral community with strong seasonality and recurrence patterns. These communities were unexpectedly dominated by a group of persistently abundant viruses. PMID:23913432

  12. Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of Mars Present Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

    1996-01-01

    This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. The focus of this JRI has been to investigate the nature of intraseasonal and interannual variability of Mars'present climate. We have applied a three-dimensional climate model based on the full hydrostatic primitive equations to determine the spatial, but primarily, the temporal structures of the planet's large-scale circulation as it evolves during a given seasonal advance, and, over multi-annual cycles. The particular climate model applies simplified physical parameterizations and is computationally efficient. It could thus easily be integrated in a perpetual season or advancing season configuration, as well as over many Mars years. We have assessed both high and low-frequency components of the circulation (i.e., motions having periods of Omicron(2-10 days) or greater than Omicron(10 days), respectively). Results from this investigation have explored the basic issue whether Mars' climate system is naturally 'chaotic' associated with nonlinear interactions of the large-scale circulation-regardless of any allowance for year-to-year variations in external forcing mechanisms. Titles of papers presented at scientific conferences and a manuscript to be submitted to the scientific literature are provided. An overview of a areas for further investigation is also presented.

  13. Impacts of Interannual Climate Variability on Agricultural and Marine Ecosystems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cane, M. A.; Zebiak, S.; Kaplan, A.; Chen, D.

    2001-01-01

    The El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of global interannual climate variability, and seems to be the only mode for which current prediction methods are more skillful than climatology or persistence. The Zebiak and Cane intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model has been in use for ENSO prediction for more than a decade, with notable success. However, the sole dependence of its original initialization scheme and the improved initialization on wind fields derived from merchant ship observations proved to be a liability during 1997/1998 El Nino event: the deficiencies of wind observations prevented the oceanic component of the model from reaching the realistic state during the year prior to the event, and the forecast failed. Our work on the project was concentrated on the use of satellite data for improving various stages of ENSO prediction technology: model initialization, bias correction, and data assimilation. Close collaboration with other teams of the IDS project was maintained throughout.

  14. Interannual climate variability and snowpack in the western United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cayan, Daniel R.

    1996-01-01

    An important part of the water supply in the western United States is derived from runoff fed by mountain snowmelt Snow accumulation responds to both precipitation and temperature variations, and forms an interesting climatic index, since it integrates these influences over the entire late fall-spring period. Here, effects of cool season climate variability upon snow water equivalent (SWE) over the western part of the conterminous United States are examined. The focus is on measurements on/and 1 April, when snow accumulation is typically greatest. The primary data, from a network of mountainous snow courses, provides a good description of interannual fluctuations in snow accumulations, since many snow courses have records of five decades or more. For any given year, the spring SWE anomaly at a particular snow course is likely to be 25%–60% of its long-term average. Five separate regions of anomalous SWE variability are distinguished, using a rotated principal components analysis. Although effects vary with region and with elevation, in general, the anomalous winter precipitation has the strongest influence on spring SWE fluctuations. Anomalous temperature has a weaker effect overall, but it has great influence in lower elevations such as in the coastal Northwest, and during spring in higher elevations. The regional snow anomaly patterns are associated with precipitation and temperature anomalies in winter and early spring. Patterns of the precipitation, temperature, and snow anomalies extend over broad regional areas, much larger than individual watersheds. These surface anomalies are organized by the atmospheric circulation, with primary anomaly centers over the North Pacific Ocean as well as over western North America. For most of the regions, anomalously low SWE is associated with a winter circulation resembling the PNA pattern. With a strong low in the central North Pacific and high pressure over the Pacific Northwest, this pattern diverts North Pacific

  15. ENSO in a warming world: interannual climate variability in the early Miocene Southern Hemisphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fox, Bethany; Wilson, Gary; Lee, Daphne

    2016-04-01

    The El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant source of interannual variability in the modern-day climate system. ENSO is a quasi-periodic cycle with a recurrence interval of 2-8 years. A major question in modern climatology is how ENSO will respond to increased climatic warmth. ENSO-like (2-8 year) cycles have been detected in many palaeoclimate records for the Holocene. However, the temporal resolution of pre-Quaternary palaeoclimate archives is generally too coarse to investigate ENSO-scale variability. We present a 100-kyr record of ENSO-like variability during the second half of the Oligocene/Miocene Mi-1 event, a period of increasing global temperatures and Antarctic deglaciation (~23.032-2.93 Ma). This record is drawn from an annually laminated lacustrine diatomite from southern New Zealand, a region strongly affected by ENSO in the present day. The diatomite consists of seasonal alternations of light (diatom bloom) and dark (low diatom productivity) layers. Each light-dark couplet represents one year's sedimentation. Light-dark couplet thickness is characterised by ENSO-scale variability. We use high-resolution (sub-annual) measurements of colour spectra to detect couplet thickness variability. Wavelet analysis indicates that absolute values are modulated by orbital cycles. However, when orbital effects are taken into account, ENSO-like variability occurs throughout the entire depositional period, with no clear increase or reduction in relation to Antarctic deglaciation and increasing global warmth.

  16. Impacts of inter-annual vegetation changes on climate simulation in HadGEM2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, S.; Kang, H.; Byun, Y.; Lee, J.; Climate Modeling Team

    2010-12-01

    Recently, there have been a number of efforts that are geared towards understanding how vegetation variability, induced by inter-annual or inter-decadal climate variability can feedback onto the climate system. The Hadley Center Global Environmental Model version 2 (HadGEM2) with tiled version of the Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme version 2.2 (MOSES 2.2), which has five plant functional types, is used to assess the impact of a vegetation inter-annual change on global climate and surface energy balance. Two AMIP-type integrations were performed with climatology and inter-annual varying vegetation fraction during the 20 years from 1980 to 2000 with observed sea surface temperature. Changes in surface climate including precipitation, surface heat fluxes and in atmospheric circulation due to time varying broadleaf, needle-leaf, and shrub (C3 and C4 grass) will be investigated.

  17. What drives interannual variability of hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay: Climate forcing versus nutrient loading?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Ming; Lee, Younjoo J.; Testa, Jeremy M.; Li, Yun; Ni, Wenfei; Kemp, W. Michael; Di Toro, Dominic M.

    2016-03-01

    Oxygen depletion in estuaries is a worldwide problem with detrimental effects on many organisms. Although nutrient loading has been stabilized for a number of these systems, seasonal hypoxia persists and displays large year-to-year variations, with larger hypoxic volumes in wetter years and smaller hypoxic volumes in drier years. Data analysis points to climate as a driver of interannual hypoxia variability, but nutrient inputs covary with freshwater flow. Here we report an oxygen budget analysis of Chesapeake Bay to quantify relative contributions of physical and biogeochemical processes. Vertical diffusive flux declines with river discharge, whereas longitudinal advective flux increases with river discharge, such that their total supply of oxygen to bottom water is relatively unchanged. However, water column respiration exhibits large interannual fluctuations and is correlated with primary production and hypoxic volume. Hence, the model results suggest that nutrient loading is the main mechanism driving interannual hypoxia variability in Chesapeake Bay.

  18. Seasonal divergence in the interannual responses of Northern Hemisphere vegetation activity to variations in diurnal climate.

    PubMed

    Wu, Xiuchen; Liu, Hongyan; Li, Xiaoyan; Liang, Eryuan; Beck, Pieter S A; Huang, Yongmei

    2016-01-11

    Seasonal asymmetry in the interannual variations in the daytime and nighttime climate in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is well documented, but its consequences for vegetation activity remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate the interannual responses of vegetation activity to variations of seasonal mean daytime and nighttime climate in NH (>30 °N) during the past decades using remote sensing retrievals, FLUXNET and tree ring data. Despite a generally significant and positive response of vegetation activity to seasonal mean maximum temperature (Tmax) in ~22-25% of the boreal (>50 °N) NH between spring and autumn, spring-summer progressive water limitations appear to decouple vegetation activity from the mean summer Tmax, particularly in climate zones with dry summers. Drought alleviation during autumn results in vegetation recovery from the marked warming-induced drought limitations observed in spring and summer across 24-26% of the temperate NH. Vegetation activity exhibits a pervasively negative correlation with the autumn mean minimum temperature, which is in contrast to the ambiguous patterns observed in spring and summer. Our findings provide new insights into how seasonal asymmetry in the interannual variations in the mean daytime and nighttime climate interacts with water limitations to produce spatiotemporally variable responses of vegetation growth.

  19. Seasonal divergence in the interannual responses of Northern Hemisphere vegetation activity to variations in diurnal climate

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Xiuchen; Liu, Hongyan; Li, Xiaoyan; Liang, Eryuan; Beck, Pieter S. A.; Huang, Yongmei

    2016-01-01

    Seasonal asymmetry in the interannual variations in the daytime and nighttime climate in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is well documented, but its consequences for vegetation activity remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate the interannual responses of vegetation activity to variations of seasonal mean daytime and nighttime climate in NH (>30 °N) during the past decades using remote sensing retrievals, FLUXNET and tree ring data. Despite a generally significant and positive response of vegetation activity to seasonal mean maximum temperature () in ~22–25% of the boreal (>50 °N) NH between spring and autumn, spring-summer progressive water limitations appear to decouple vegetation activity from the mean summer , particularly in climate zones with dry summers. Drought alleviation during autumn results in vegetation recovery from the marked warming-induced drought limitations observed in spring and summer across 24–26% of the temperate NH. Vegetation activity exhibits a pervasively negative correlation with the autumn mean minimum temperature, which is in contrast to the ambiguous patterns observed in spring and summer. Our findings provide new insights into how seasonal asymmetry in the interannual variations in the mean daytime and nighttime climate interacts with water limitations to produce spatiotemporally variable responses of vegetation growth. PMID:26751166

  20. Partitioning interannual variability in net ecosystem exchange between climatic variability and functional change.

    PubMed

    Hui, Dafeng; Luo, Yiqi; Katul, Gabriel

    2003-05-01

    Interannual variability (IAV) in net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE) is a critical factor in projections of future ecosystem changes. However, our understanding of IAV is limited because of the difficulty in isolating its numerous causes. We proposed that IAV in NEE is primarily caused by climatic variability, through its direct effects on photosynthesis and respiration and through its indirect effects on carbon fluxes (i.e., the parameters that govern photosynthesis and respiration), hereafter called functional change. We employed a homogeneity-of-slopes model to identify the functional change contributing to IAV in NEE and nighttime ecosystem respiration (RE). The model uses multiple regression analysis to relate NEE and RE with climatic variables for individual years and for all years. If the use of different slopes for each year significantly improves the model fitting compared to the use of one slope for all years, we consider that functional change exists, at least on annual time scales. With the functional change detected, we then partition the observed variation in NEE or RE to four components, namely, the functional change, the direct effect of interannual climatic variability, the direct effect of seasonal climatic variation, and random error. Application of this approach to a data set collected at the Duke Forest AmeriFlux site from August 1997 to December 2001 indicated that functional change, interannual climatic variability, seasonal climatic variation and random error explained 9.9, 8.9, 59.9 and 21.3%, respectively, of the observed variation in NEE and 13.1, 5.0, 38.1 and 43.8%, respectively, of the observed variation in RE.

  1. Adaptation to Interannual and Interdecadal Climate Variability in Agricultural Production Systems of the Argentine Pampas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Podestá, G. P.; Bert, F.; Weber, E.; Laciana, C.; Rajagopalan, B.; Letson, D.

    2007-05-01

    Agricultural ecosystems play a central role in world food production and food security, and involve one of the most climate-sensitive sectors of society-agriculture. We focus on crop production in the Argentine Pampas, one of the world's major agricultural regions. Climate of the Pampas shows marked variability at both interannual and decadal time scales. We explored the scope for adaptive management in response to climate information on interannual scales. We show that different assumptions about what decision makers are trying to achieve (i.e., their objective functions) may change what actions are considered as "optimal" for a given climate context. Optimal actions also were used to estimate the economic value of forecasts of an ENSO phase. Decision constraints (e.g., crop rotations) have critical influence on value of the forecasting system. Gaps in knowledge or misconceptions about climate variability were identified in open-ended "mental model" interviews. Results were used to design educational interventions. A marked increase in precipitation since the 1970s, together with new production technologies, led to major changes in land use patterns in the Pampas. Continuous cropping has widely replaced agriculture-pasture rotations. Nevertheless, production systems that evolved partly in response to increased rainfall may not be viable if climate reverts to a drier epoch. We use historical data to define a range of plausible climate trajectories 20-30 years hence. Regional scenarios are downscaled using semi-parametric weather generators to produce multiple realizations of daily weather consistent with decadal scenarios. Finally, we use the synthetic climate, crop growth models, and realistic models of decision-making under risk to compute risk metrics (e.g., probability of yields or profits being below a threshold). Climatically optimal and marginal locations show differential responses: probabilities of negative economic results are much higher in currently

  2. Exchange of carbon dioxide by a deciduous forest: Response to interannual climate variability

    SciTech Connect

    Goulden, M.L.; Munger, J.W.; Fan, S.M.; Daube, B.C.; Wofsy, S.C.

    1996-03-15

    The annual net uptake of CO{sub 2} by a deciduous forest in New England varied from 1.4 to 2.8 metric tons of carbon per hectare between 1991 and 1995. Carbon sequestration was higher than average in 1991 because of increased photosynthesis and in 1995 because of decreased respiration. Interannual shifts in photosynthesis were associated with the timing of leaf expansion and senescence. Shifts in annual respiration were associated with anomalies in soil temperature, deep snow in winter, and drought in summer. If this ecosystem is typical of northern biomes, interannual climate variations on seasonal time scales may modify annual CO{sub 2} exchange in the Northern Hemisphere by 1 gigaton of carbon or more each year. 26 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  3. An exercise in glacier length modeling: Interannual climatic variability alone cannot explain Holocene glacier fluctuations in New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doughty, Alice M.; Mackintosh, Andrew N.; Anderson, Brian M.; Dadic, Ruzica; Putnam, Aaron E.; Barrell, David J. A.; Denton, George H.; Chinn, Trevor J. H.; Schaefer, Joerg M.

    2017-07-01

    Recent model studies suggest that interannual climatic variability could be confounding the interpretation of glacier fluctuations as climate signals. Paleoclimate interpretations of moraine positions and associated cosmogenic exposure ages may have large uncertainties if the glacier in question was sensitive to interannual variability. Here we address the potential for interannual temperature and precipitation variability to cause large shifts in glacier length during the Holocene. Using a coupled ice-flow and mass-balance model, we simulate the response of Cameron Glacier, a small mountain glacier in New Zealand's Southern Alps, to two types of climate forcing: equilibrium climate and variable climate. Our equilibrium results suggest a net warming trend from the Early Holocene (10.69 ± 0.41 ka; 2.7 °C cooler than present) to the Late Holocene (CE 1864; 1.3 °C cooler than present). Interannual climatic variability cannot account for the Holocene glacier fluctuations in this valley. Future studies should consider local environmental characteristics, such as a glacier's climatic setting and topography, to determine the magnitude of glacier length changes caused by interannual variability.

  4. Interannual climate variability change during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age in PMIP3 last millennium simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Kaiqing; Jiang, Dabang

    2017-04-01

    In this study, we analyzed numerical experiments undertaken by 10 climate models participating in PMIP3 (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3) to examine the changes in interannual temperature variability and coefficient of variation (CV) of interannual precipitation in the warm period of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA). With respect to the past millennium period, the MCA temperature variability decreases by 2.0% on average over the globe, and most of the decreases occur in low latitudes. In the LIA, temperature variability increases by a global average of 0.6%, which occurs primarily in the high latitudes of Eurasia and the western Pacific. For the CV of interannual precipitation, regional-scale changes are more significant than changes at the global scale, with a pattern of increased (decreased) CV in the midlatitudes of Eurasia and the northwestern Pacific in the MCA (LIA). The CV change ranges from -7.0% to 4.3% (from -6.3% to 5.4%), with a global average of -0.5% (-0.07%) in the MCA (LIA). Also, the variability changes are considerably larger in December-January-February with respect to both temperature and precipitation.

  5. Covariability of Climate and Streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande from Interannual to Interdecadal Timescales

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pascolini-Campbell, M.; Seager, Richard; Pinson, Ariane; Cook, Benjamin I.

    2017-01-01

    Study region: The Upper Rio Grande (URG) flows from its headwaters in Colorado, U.S., and provides an important source of water to millions of people in the U.S. states of Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and also Mexico. Study focus: We reassess the explanatory power of the relationship of sea surface temperatures (SST) on URG streamflow variability on interannual to interdecadal timescales. We find a significant amount of the variance of spring-summer URG streamflow cannot be fully explained by SST. New hydrological insights: We find that the interdecadal teleconnection between SST and streamflow is more clear than on interannual timescales. The highest ranked years tend to be clustered during positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). During the periods of decadal high flow (1900-1920, and 1979-1995), Pacific SST resembles a positive PDO pattern and the Atlantic a negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) pattern; an interbasin pattern shown in prior studies to be conducive to high precipitation and streamflow. To account for the part of streamflow variance not explained by SST, we analyze atmospheric Reanalysis data for the months preceding the highest spring-summer streamflow events. A variety of atmospheric configurations are found to precede the highest flow years through anomalous moisture convergence. This lack of consistency suggests that, on interannual timescales, weather and not climate can dominate the generation of high streamflow events.

  6. Interannual water-level fluctuations and the vegetation of prairie potholes: Potential impacts of climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    van der Valk, Arnold; Mushet, David M.

    2016-01-01

    Mean water depth and range of interannual water-level fluctuations over wet-dry cycles in precipitation are major drivers of vegetation zone formation in North American prairie potholes. We used harmonic hydrological models, which require only mean interannual water depth and amplitude of water-level fluctuations over a wet–dry cycle, to examine how the vegetation zones in a pothole would respond to small changes in water depth and/or amplitude of water-level fluctuations. Field data from wetlands in Saskatchewan, North Dakota, and South Dakota were used to parameterize harmonic models for four pothole classes. Six scenarios in which small negative or positive changes in either mean water depth, amplitude of interannual fluctuations, or both, were modeled to predict if they would affect the number of zones in each wetland class. The results indicated that, in some cases, even small changes in mean water depth when coupled with a small change in amplitude of water-level fluctuations can shift a prairie pothole wetland from one class to another. Our results suggest that climate change could alter the relative proportion of different wetland classes in the prairie pothole region.

  7. Formation mechanism for the amplitude of interannual climate variability in subtropical northern hemisphere: relative contributions from the zonal asymmetric mean state and the interannual variability of SST

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Chao; Lin, Ailan; Gu, Dejun; Li, Chunhui; Zheng, Bin

    2017-01-01

    The Amplitude Interannual climate Variability (AIV) differs among the subtropical northern hemisphere, and the Western North Pacific (WNP) was claimed to exhibit the largest AIV. The robustness of the AIV pattern is investigated in this study with different atmospheric variables from multiple datasets. As consistently shown by the interannual variance patterns of precipitation and circulation, the AIV over subtropical northern hemisphere closely follows the mean state of precipitation, where higher (lower) AIV is located at moister (drier) regions. The largest AIV is seen over the broad area from South Asia to WNP, followed by a secondary local maximum over the Gulf of Mexico. To further investigate the formation mechanism for the AIV pattern, numerical simulations are performed by Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4). The zonal asymmetry of AIV is reduced if the interannual SST variability is removed, and it almost disappears if the zonal asymmetry of SST mean state is removed. The results suggest that the zonal asymmetric AIV pattern primarily originates from the zonal asymmetric SST mean state, and it is amplified by the interannual SST variability. The atmospheric convection-circulation feedback plays a key role in connecting the AIV with the mean state precipitation. In both observation and CAM4 simulations, stronger (weaker) convection-circulation feedback is seen in moister (drier) regions. By modulating the mean state precipitation and the associated intensity of convection-circulation feedback, the zonal asymmetric SST mean state accounts for the zonal asymmetry of AIV in the subtropical northern hemisphere.

  8. Interannual climate variability drives regional fires in west central British Columbia, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harvey, Jill E.; Smith, Dan J.

    2017-07-01

    We investigated the influence of climate variability on forest fire occurrence at eight sites in west central British Columbia, Canada. Forty-six local fire years affecting a single site and 16 moderate fire years affecting two or more sites were identified (1600-1900 A.D.). Existing fire history data were incorporated to identify 17 regionally synchronous fire years (fires that affected ≥3 sites). Interannual and multidecadal relationships between fire occurrence and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern were examined, in addition to the effects of additive positive phases of ENSO and PDO. We examined multiple reconstructions of ENSO, PDO, and PNA and utilized three methodological approaches to characterize climate-fire relationships. We found that the influence of interannual climate, expressed as PDSI, increasingly synchronized the occurrence of fires when examined from local to regional scales. An association between local fires and positive antecedent moisture conditions suggests moisture-driven fine fuel development and the proximity of some sites to grasslands likely function as key determinants of local-scale fire activity. The relationships between regional fires and ENSO, PDO, and PNA suggest that large-scale patterns of climate variability exert a weak and/or inconsistent influence over fire activity in west central British Columbia between 1700 and 1900 A.D. Although inconsistent among reconstructions of climate patterns, we identified a significant relationship between regional fires and large-scale climate patterns when ENSO and PDO were both in positive phases.

  9. Precipitation drives interannual variation in summer soil respiration in a Mediterranean-climate, mixed-conifer forest

    Treesearch

    M. Concilio; J. Chen; S. Ma; M. North

    2009-01-01

    Predictions of future climate change rely on models of how both environmental conditions and disturbance impact carbon cycling at various temporal and spatial scales. Few multi-year studies, however, have examined how carbon efflux is affected by the interaction of disturbance and interannual climate variation. We measured daytime soil respiration (R...

  10. Interannual and spatial variability of maple syrup yield as related to climatic factors

    PubMed Central

    Houle, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Sugar maple syrup production is an important economic activity for eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. Since annual variations in syrup yield have been related to climate, there are concerns about the impacts of climatic change on the industry in the upcoming decades. Although the temporal variability of syrup yield has been studied for specific sites on different time scales or for large regions, a model capable of accounting for both temporal and regional differences in yield is still lacking. In the present study, we studied the factors responsible for interregional and interannual variability in maple syrup yield over the 2001–2012 period, by combining the data from 8 Quebec regions (Canada) and 10 U.S. states. The resulting model explained 44.5% of the variability in yield. It includes the effect of climatic conditions that precede the sapflow season (variables from the previous growing season and winter), the effect of climatic conditions during the current sapflow season, and terms accounting for intercountry and temporal variability. Optimal conditions for maple syrup production appear to be spatially restricted by less favourable climate conditions occurring during the growing season in the north, and in the south, by the warmer winter and earlier spring conditions. This suggests that climate change may favor maple syrup production northwards, while southern regions are more likely to be negatively affected by adverse spring conditions. PMID:24949244

  11. Interannual and spatial variability of maple syrup yield as related to climatic factors.

    PubMed

    Duchesne, Louis; Houle, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Sugar maple syrup production is an important economic activity for eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. Since annual variations in syrup yield have been related to climate, there are concerns about the impacts of climatic change on the industry in the upcoming decades. Although the temporal variability of syrup yield has been studied for specific sites on different time scales or for large regions, a model capable of accounting for both temporal and regional differences in yield is still lacking. In the present study, we studied the factors responsible for interregional and interannual variability in maple syrup yield over the 2001-2012 period, by combining the data from 8 Quebec regions (Canada) and 10 U.S. states. The resulting model explained 44.5% of the variability in yield. It includes the effect of climatic conditions that precede the sapflow season (variables from the previous growing season and winter), the effect of climatic conditions during the current sapflow season, and terms accounting for intercountry and temporal variability. Optimal conditions for maple syrup production appear to be spatially restricted by less favourable climate conditions occurring during the growing season in the north, and in the south, by the warmer winter and earlier spring conditions. This suggests that climate change may favor maple syrup production northwards, while southern regions are more likely to be negatively affected by adverse spring conditions.

  12. Effect of interannual climate variability on carbon storage in Amazonian ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tian, H.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; McGuire, David A.; Helfrich, J. V. K.; Moore, B.; Vorosmarty, C.J.

    1998-01-01

    The Amazon Basin contains almost one-half of the world's undisturbed tropical evergreen forest as well as large areas of tropical savanna. The forests account for about 10 per cent of the world's terrestrial primary productivity and for a similar fraction of the carbon stored in land ecosystems, and short-term field measurements suggest that these ecosystems are globally important carbon sinks. But tropical land ecosystems have experienced substantial interannual climate variability owing to frequent El Nino episodes in recent decades. Of particular importance to climate change policy is how such climate variations, coupled with increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration, affect terrestrial carbon storage. Previous model analyses have demonstrated the importance of temperature in controlling carbon storage. Here we use a transient process-based biogeochemical model of terrestrial ecosystems to investigate interannual variations of carbon storage in undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems in response to climate variability and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration during the period 1980 to 1994. In El Nino years, which bring hot, dry weather to much of the Amazon region, the ecosystems act as a source of carbon to the atmosphere (up to 0.2 petagrams of carbon in 1987 and 1992). In other years, these ecosystems act as a carbon sink (up to 0.7 Pg C in 1981 and 1993). These fluxes are large; they compare to a 0.3 Pg C per year source to the atmosphere associated with deforestation in the Amazon Basin in the early 1990s. Soil moisture, which is affected by both precipitation and temperature, and which affects both plant and soil processes, appears to be an important control on carbon storage.

  13. Interannual to multidecadal climate forcings on groundwater resources of the U.S. West Coast

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Velasco, Elzie M; Gurdak, Jason J.; Dickinson, Jesse; Ferre, T.P.A; Corona, Claudia

    2016-01-01

    Study regionThe U.S. West Coast, including the Pacific Northwest and California Coastal Basins aquifer systems.Study focusGroundwater response to interannual to multidecadal climate variability has important implications for security within the water–energy–food nexus. Here we use Singular Spectrum Analysis to quantify the teleconnections between AMO, PDO, ENSO, and PNA and precipitation and groundwater level fluctuations. The computer program DAMP was used to provide insight on the influence of soil texture, depth to water, and mean and period of a surface infiltration flux on the damping of climate signals in the vadose zone.New hydrological insights for the regionWe find that PDO, ENSO, and PNA have significant influence on precipitation and groundwater fluctuations across a north-south gradient of the West Coast, but the lower frequency climate modes (PDO) have a greater influence on hydrologic patterns than higher frequency climate modes (ENSO and PNA). Low frequency signals tend to be preserved better in groundwater fluctuations than high frequency signals, which is a function of the degree of damping of surface variable fluxes related to soil texture, depth to water, mean and period of the infiltration flux. The teleconnection patterns that exist in surface hydrologic processes are not necessarily the same as those preserved in subsurface processes, which are affected by damping of some climate variability signals within infiltrating water.

  14. A continental phenology model for monitoring vegetation responses to interannual climatic variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, Michael A.; Thornton, Peter E.; Running, Steven W.

    1997-06-01

    Regional phenology is important in ecosystem simulation models and coupled biosphere/atmosphere models. In the continental United States, the timing of the onset of greenness in the spring (leaf expansion, grass green-up) and offset of greenness in the fall (leaf abscission, cessation of height growth, grass brown-off) are strongly influenced by meteorological and climatological conditions. We developed predictive phenology models based on traditional phenology research using commonly available meteorological and climatological data. Predictions were compared with satellite phenology observations at numerous 20 km × 20 km contiguous landcover sites. Onset mean absolute error was 7.2 days in the deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF) biome and 6.1 days in the grassland biome. Offset mean absolute error was 5.3 days in the DBF biome and 6.3 days in the grassland biome. Maximum expected errors at a 95% probability level ranged from 10 to 14 days. Onset was strongly associated with temperature summations in both grassland and DBF biomes; DBF offset was best predicted with a photoperiod function, while grassland offset required a combination of precipitation and temperature controls. A long-term regional test of the DBF onset model captured field-measured interannual variability trends in lilac phenology. Continental application of the phenology models for 1990-1992 revealed extensive interannual variability in onset and offset. Median continental growing season length ranged from a low of 129 days in 1991 to a high of 146 days in 1992. Potential uses of the models include regulation of the timing and length of the growing season in large-scale biogeochemical models and monitoring vegetation response to interannual climatic variability.

  15. Climate-driven interannual variability of water scarcity in food production: a global analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kummu, M.; Gerten, D.; Heinke, J.; Konzmann, M.; Varis, O.

    2013-06-01

    Interannual climatic and hydrologic variability has been substantial during the past decades in many regions. While climate variability and its impacts on precipitation and soil moisture have been rather intensively studied, less is known on its impacts on freshwater availability and further implications for global food production. In this paper we quantify effects of hydroclimatic variability on global "green" and "blue" water availability and demand in agriculture. Analysis is based on climate forcing data for the past 30 yr with demography, diet composition and land use fixed to constant reference conditions. We thus assess how observed interannual hydroclimatic variability impacts on the ability of food production units (FPUs) to produce a given diet for their inhabitants, here focused on a benchmark for hunger alleviation (3000 kilocalories per capita per day, with 80% vegetal food and 20% animal products). We applied the LPJmL vegetation and hydrology model to calculate spatially explicitly the variation in green-blue water availability and the water requirements to produce that very diet. An FPU was considered water scarce if its water availability was not sufficient to produce the diet (neglecting trade from elsewhere, i.e. assuming food self-sufficiency). We found that altogether 24% of the global population lives in areas under chronic scarcity (i.e. water is scarce every year) while an additional 19% live under occasional water scarcity (i.e. water is scarce in some years). Of these 2.6 billion people under some degree of scarcity, 55% would have to rely on international trade to reach the reference diet while for 24% domestic trade would be enough (assuming present cropland extent and management). For the remaining 21% of population under scarcity, local food storage and/or intermittent trade would be enough secure the reference diet over the occasional dry years.

  16. Climate-driven interannual variability of water scarcity in food production potential: a global analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kummu, M.; Gerten, D.; Heinke, J.; Konzmann, M.; Varis, O.

    2014-02-01

    Interannual climatic and hydrologic variability has been substantial during the past decades in many regions. While climate variability and its impacts on precipitation and soil moisture have been studied intensively, less is known on subsequent implications for global food production. In this paper we quantify effects of hydroclimatic variability on global "green" and "blue" water availability and demand in global agriculture, and thus complement former studies that have focused merely on long-term averages. Moreover, we assess some options to overcome chronic or sporadic water scarcity. The analysis is based on historical climate forcing data sets over the period 1977-2006, while demography, diet composition and land use are fixed to reference conditions (year 2000). In doing so, we isolate the effect of interannual hydroclimatic variability from other factors that drive food production. We analyse the potential of food production units (FPUs) to produce a reference diet for their inhabitants (3000 kcal cap-1 day-1, with 80% vegetal food and 20% animal products). We applied the LPJmL vegetation and hydrology model to calculate the variation in green-blue water availability and the water requirements to produce that very diet. An FPU was considered water scarce if its water availability was not sufficient to produce the diet (i.e. assuming food self-sufficiency to estimate dependency on trade from elsewhere). We found that 24% of the world's population lives in chronically water-scarce FPUs (i.e. water is scarce every year), while an additional 19% live under occasional water scarcity (water is scarce in some years). Among these 2.6 billion people altogether, 55% would have to rely on international trade to reach the reference diet, while for 24% domestic trade would be enough. For the remaining 21% of the population exposed to some degree of water scarcity, local food storage and/or intermittent trade would be enough to secure the reference diet over the

  17. Regional climate extremes in Northern Eurasia associated with atmospheric blockings: Interannual variations and tendencies of change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mokhov, I.; Akperov, M.; Lupo, A. R.; Chernokulsky, A. V.; Timazhev, A.

    2011-12-01

    Large regional climate anomalies associated with atmospheric blockings have been noted during last years in Northern Eurasia. Impact of blockings is exhibited in such extremes as heat and cold waves, droughts, and forest fires. In order to detect changes in the blocking activity characteristics an analysis of different data for the Northern Hemisphere with the use of various methods for blockings detection was carried out. In particular, the data for 500 hPa geopotential from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 (1948-2010) and NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis v2 (1871-2008) have been used as well as climate model simulations for the 20th and 21st centuries with anthropogenic forcing. Special attention is paid to the analysis of extreme dry conditions in the Northern Eurasia regions and to the 2010 Russian heat wave associated to atmospheric blockings with the use observational data (1891-2010) for surface air temperature, precipitation and different indices for the drought conditions. Tendencies of change and interannual variations are analyzed with an assessment of effects of El-Nino/La-Nina phenomena. Possibility of intensification of blocking-associated climate impacts under global warming is discussed. Changes of blocking characteristics and associated regional climate anomalies in the 21st century based on model simulations with anthropogenic scenarios are analyzed.

  18. Marine climate influences on interannual variability of tropical cyclones in the eastern Caribbean: 1979-2008

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jury, Mark R.

    2015-04-01

    Interannual variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the eastern Caribbean is studied using MIT-Hurdat fields during the July-October season from 1979 to 2008. TC intensity shows local climate sensitivity particularly for upper ocean currents, salinity and mixed-layer depth, and 200-850 mb wind shear. Remote influences from the Southern Oscillation, Saharan dust, and the South American monsoon are also identified as important. Ocean currents diminish along the coast of South America, so interbasin transfer between the North Brazil and Caribbean Currents declines in seasons of frequent and intense TCs. This is related to a dipole pattern in the sea surface height formed mainly by reduced trade wind upwelling northeast of Venezuela. A low-salinity plume from the Orinoco River spreads across the eastern Caribbean. It is the weaker currents and shallower mixed layer that conspire with surplus heat to build thermodynamic energy available for TC intensification.

  19. Seasonal and interannual variability of climate and vegetation indices across the Amazon

    PubMed Central

    Brando, Paulo M.; Goetz, Scott J.; Baccini, Alessandro; Nepstad, Daniel C.; Beck, Pieter S. A.; Christman, Mary C.

    2010-01-01

    Drought exerts a strong influence on tropical forest metabolism, carbon stocks, and ultimately the flux of carbon to the atmosphere. Satellite-based studies have suggested that Amazon forests green up during droughts because of increased sunlight, whereas field studies have reported increased tree mortality during severe droughts. In an effort to reconcile these apparently conflicting findings, we conducted an analysis of climate data, field measurements, and improved satellite-based measures of forest photosynthetic activity. Wet-season precipitation and plant-available water (PAW) decreased over the Amazon Basin from 1996−2005, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and air dryness (expressed as vapor pressure deficit, VPD) increased from 2002–2005. Using improved enhanced vegetation index (EVI) measurements (2000–2008), we show that gross primary productivity (expressed as EVI) declined with VPD and PAW in regions of sparse canopy cover across a wide range of environments for each year of the study. In densely forested areas, no climatic variable adequately explained the Basin-wide interannual variability of EVI. Based on a site-specific study, we show that monthly EVI was relatively insensitive to leaf area index (LAI) but correlated positively with leaf flushing and PAR measured in the field. These findings suggest that production of new leaves, even when unaccompanied by associated changes in LAI, could play an important role in Basin-wide interannual EVI variability. Because EVI variability was greatest in regions of lower PAW, we hypothesize that drought could increase EVI by synchronizing leaf flushing via its effects on leaf bud development. PMID:20679201

  20. Seasonal and interannual variability of climate and vegetation indices across the Amazon.

    PubMed

    Brando, Paulo M; Goetz, Scott J; Baccini, Alessandro; Nepstad, Daniel C; Beck, Pieter S A; Christman, Mary C

    2010-08-17

    Drought exerts a strong influence on tropical forest metabolism, carbon stocks, and ultimately the flux of carbon to the atmosphere. Satellite-based studies have suggested that Amazon forests green up during droughts because of increased sunlight, whereas field studies have reported increased tree mortality during severe droughts. In an effort to reconcile these apparently conflicting findings, we conducted an analysis of climate data, field measurements, and improved satellite-based measures of forest photosynthetic activity. Wet-season precipitation and plant-available water (PAW) decreased over the Amazon Basin from 1996-2005, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and air dryness (expressed as vapor pressure deficit, VPD) increased from 2002-2005. Using improved enhanced vegetation index (EVI) measurements (2000-2008), we show that gross primary productivity (expressed as EVI) declined with VPD and PAW in regions of sparse canopy cover across a wide range of environments for each year of the study. In densely forested areas, no climatic variable adequately explained the Basin-wide interannual variability of EVI. Based on a site-specific study, we show that monthly EVI was relatively insensitive to leaf area index (LAI) but correlated positively with leaf flushing and PAR measured in the field. These findings suggest that production of new leaves, even when unaccompanied by associated changes in LAI, could play an important role in Basin-wide interannual EVI variability. Because EVI variability was greatest in regions of lower PAW, we hypothesize that drought could increase EVI by synchronizing leaf flushing via its effects on leaf bud development.

  1. Interannual to Multidecadal Climate Variability and Groundwater Resources of the Western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gurdak, J. J.; Kuss, A. M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate variability and change have important implications for groundwater recharge, discharge, contaminant transport, and resource sustainability. Reliable predictions of groundwater sustainability due to climate change will require improved understanding of the effects of global scale atmosphere-ocean climate oscillations on interannual to multidecadal timescales. Climate variability on these timescales partially controls precipitation, air temperature, drought, evapotranspiration, streamflow, recharge, and mobilization of subsurface-chemical reservoirs. Climate variability can augment or diminish human stresses on groundwater, and the responses in storage can be dramatic when different climate cycles lie coincident in a positive or negative phase of variability. Thus, understanding climate variability has particular relevance for management decisions during drought and for water resources close to the limits of sustainability. Major findings will be presented from a national scale study of climate variability on recharge rates and groundwater levels, and will highlight regional aquifers of the western United States, including the Basin and Range (700,000 km2), Central Valley (52,000 km2), High Plains (450,000 km2), and Mississippi Embayment (181,000 km2) aquifer systems. Using singular spectrum analysis, the groundwater pumping signal was removed and natural variations were identified in groundwater levels as partially coincident with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2-6 year cycle), North Atlantic Oscillation (3-6 year cycle), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (10-25 year cycle), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (50-80 year cycle). The PDO was the most significant contributor to recharge and groundwater level fluctuations in most aquifers. In the Central Valley and the Basin and Range, the PDO contributes to the greatest amount of variance (ranging from 13.6-83%) in all precipitation and groundwater level time series, with moderate to strong

  2. Storm-tracks interannual variability and large-scale climate modes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

    2013-04-01

    In this study we focus on the interannual variability and observed changes in northern hemisphere mid-latitude storm-tracks and relate them to large scale atmospheric circulation variability modes. Extratropical storminess, cyclones dominant paths, frequency and intensity have long been the object of climatological studies. The analysis of storm characteristics and historical trends presented here is based on the cyclone detecting and tracking algorithm first developed for the Mediterranean region (Trigo et al. 1999) and recently extended to a larger Euro-Atlantic region (Trigo 2006). The objective methodology, which identifies and follows individual lows as minima in SLP fields, fulfilling a set of conditions regarding the central pressure and the pressure gradient, is applied to the northern hemisphere 6-hourly geopotential data at 1000 hPa from the 20th Century Reanalyses (20CRv2) project and from reanalyses datasets provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): ERA-40 and ERA Interim reanalyses. First, we assess the interannual variability and cyclone frequency trends for each of the datasets, for the 20th century and for the period between 1958 and 2002 using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 data. Results show that winter variability of storm paths, cyclone frequency and travel times is in agreement with the reported variability in a number of large-scale climate patterns (including the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic Pattern and the Scandinavian Pattern). In addition, three storm-track databases are built spanning the common available extended winter seasons from October 1979 to March 2002. Although relatively short, this common period allows a comparison of systems represented in reanalyses datasets with distinct horizontal resolutions. This exercise is mostly focused on the key areas of cyclogenesis and cyclolysis and main cyclone characteristics over the northern

  3. The Role of Global Hydrologic Processes in Interannual and Long-Term Climate Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robertson, Franklin R.

    1997-01-01

    The earth's climate and its variability is linked inextricably with the presence of water on our planet. El Nino / Southern Oscillation-- the major mode of interannual variability-- is characterized by strong perturbations in oceanic evaporation, tropical rainfall, and radiation. On longer time scales, the major feedback mechanism in CO2-induced global warming is actually that due to increased water vapor holding capacity of the atmosphere. The global hydrologic cycle effects on climate are manifested through influence of cloud and water vapor on energy fluxes at the top of atmosphere and at the surface. Surface moisture anomalies retain the "memory" of past precipitation anomalies and subsequently alter the partitioning of latent and sensible heat fluxes at the surface. At the top of atmosphere, water vapor and cloud perturbations alter the net amount of radiation that the earth's climate system receives. These pervasive linkages between water, radiation, and surface processes present major complexities for observing and modeling climate variations. Major uncertainties in the observations include vertical structure of clouds and water vapor, surface energy balance, and transport of water and heat by wind fields. Modeling climate variability and change on a physical basis requires accurate by simplified submodels of radiation, cloud formation, radiative exchange, surface biophysics, and oceanic energy flux. In the past, we m safely say that being "data poor' has limited our depth of understanding and impeded model validation and improvement. Beginning with pre-EOS data sets, many of these barriers are being removed. EOS platforms with the suite of measurements dedicated to specific science questions are part of our most cost effective path to improved understanding and predictive capability. This talk will highlight some of the major questions confronting global hydrology and the prospects for significant progress afforded by EOS-era measurements.

  4. The Role of Global Hydrologic Processes in Interannual and Long-Term Climate Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robertson, Franklin R.

    1997-01-01

    The earth's climate and its variability is linked inextricably with the presence of water on our planet. El Nino / Southern Oscillation-- the major mode of interannual variability-- is characterized by strong perturbations in oceanic evaporation, tropical rainfall, and radiation. On longer time scales, the major feedback mechanism in CO2-induced global warming is actually that due to increased water vapor holding capacity of the atmosphere. The global hydrologic cycle effects on climate are manifested through influence of cloud and water vapor on energy fluxes at the top of atmosphere and at the surface. Surface moisture anomalies retain the "memory" of past precipitation anomalies and subsequently alter the partitioning of latent and sensible heat fluxes at the surface. At the top of atmosphere, water vapor and cloud perturbations alter the net amount of radiation that the earth's climate system receives. These pervasive linkages between water, radiation, and surface processes present major complexities for observing and modeling climate variations. Major uncertainties in the observations include vertical structure of clouds and water vapor, surface energy balance, and transport of water and heat by wind fields. Modeling climate variability and change on a physical basis requires accurate by simplified submodels of radiation, cloud formation, radiative exchange, surface biophysics, and oceanic energy flux. In the past, we m safely say that being "data poor' has limited our depth of understanding and impeded model validation and improvement. Beginning with pre-EOS data sets, many of these barriers are being removed. EOS platforms with the suite of measurements dedicated to specific science questions are part of our most cost effective path to improved understanding and predictive capability. This talk will highlight some of the major questions confronting global hydrology and the prospects for significant progress afforded by EOS-era measurements.

  5. Inter-annual climate variability and productivity models for grapevines in Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinho, M.; Santos, J. A.; Malheiro, A. C.; Pinto, J. G.

    2009-09-01

    Grapevines are a major crop in Portugal, constituting an important source of income for local farmers. The Mediterranean type climate of the country strongly influences the growth and development of this crop, and ultimately the yield. Therefore, for several (9) Portuguese regions over 19 years (1986-2004), the inter-annual variability of grapevine productivity and climate data (mostly temperature and precipitation on a monthly basis) was analyzed in order to define mathematical models based on statistically significant correlations between those variables. One particular region (Vila Real, close to Demarcated Valley of Douro) was studied in more detail using the daily data available. For that purpose, a number of derived indices was calculated (e.g., number of days with positive minimum air temperature or maximum temperature above 25°C, number of days with precipitation higher than 10 mm). Close relationships between temperature, precipitation and relative air humidity were then found to influence productivity. In fact, a high-quality mathematical linear model based on these variables was found for Vila Real. Those analyses also enabled the verification of monthly climatic conditions, which are or not favorable for growth and development of grapevines; results indicate a clear relationship between the vegetative cycle of grapevines and their basic climatic requirements. After validation, this model may be used for predicting future yields in the region and, using data from an atmospheric model, it was also possible to project a future scenario for the productivity in the period (2030-2050), based on an specific emission scenario (A1B). Lastly, in order to isolate the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns most favorable/unfavorable to wine productivity, years with extremely high (e.g., 1989) and extremely low yields (e.g., 1987) were selected and the corresponding dynamical conditions were analyzed in more detail.

  6. Impacts of Arctic Climate Change on Tundra Fire Regimes at Interannual to Millennial Timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, F.; Young, A. M.; Chipman, M. L.; Duffy, P.; Higuera, P. E.

    2014-12-01

    Tundra burning is emerging as a key process in the rapidly changing Arctic, and knowledge of tundra fire-regime responses to climate change is essential for projecting Earth system dynamics. This presentation will focus on climate-fire relationships in the Arctic, spatiotemporal patterns of Holocene tundra burning, and the effects of tundra burning on carbon cycling. Analysis of historical records reveals that across the Arctic, tundra burning occurred primarily in areas where mean summer temperature exceeded 9 °C and total summer precipitation was below 115 mm. In Alaska, summer temperature and precipitation explain >90% of the interannual variability in tundra area burned from AD 1950-2009, with thresholds of 10.5 °C and 140 mm. These patterns imply tipping points in tundra fire-regime responses to climate change. The frequency of tundra fires has varied greatly across space and through time. Approximately 1.0% of the circum-Arctic tundra burned from AD 2002-2013, and 4.5% of the Alaskan tundra burned from AD 1950-2009. The latter encompassed ecoregions with fire rotation periods ranging from ~400 to 13,640 years. Charcoal analysis of lake sediments also shows that Arctic tundra can sustain a wide range of fire regimes. Fires were rare on the Alaskan North Slope throughout the Holocene, implying that the climate thresholds evident in the historical records have seldom been crossed. In contrast, in areas of NW Alaska, tundra has burned regularly at 100-250 year intervals during the late Holocene. Tundra burning may cause sudden releases of the enormous amount of Arctic soil C. Charcoal particles from recent burns yielded 14C ages of AD 1952-2006. Thus the C consumed in recent fires may recover through vegetation succession. However, our results suggest that in areas that have burned multiple times in recent decades, old soil C is vulnerable to future fires.

  7. Global analysis of climate-driven interannual variability of food production and related water scarcity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kummu, Matti; Gerten, Dieter; Heinke, Jens; Konzmann, Markus; Varis, Olli

    2014-05-01

    Interannual climatic and hydrologic variability has been substantial during the past decades in many regions. While climate variability and its impacts on precipitation and soil moisture have been studied intensively, less is known on subsequent implications for global food production. In this study we quantify effects of hydroclimatic variability on global "green" and "blue" water availability and demand in global agriculture, and thus complement former studies that have focused merely on long-term averages. We further quantify some options to overcome food deficit due to chronic or sporadic water scarcity. We found that 24% of the world's population lives in chronically water scare food production units (FPUs) (i.e. water is scarce every year), while an additional 19% live under occasional water scarcity (water is scarce in some years). Among these 2.6 billion people altogether, 55% would have to rely on international trade to reach the reference diet, while for 24% domestic trade would be enough. For the remaining 21% of population exposed to some degree of water scarcity, local food storage and/or intermittent trade would be enough to secure the reference diet over the occasional dry years. The analysis is based on historical climate forcing dataset over the period 1977-2007, while demography, diet composition and land use are fixed to reference conditions (year 2000). In so doing, we isolate the effect of interannual hydroclimatic variability from other factors that drive food production. We analyse the potential of FPUs to produce a reference diet for their inhabitants (3,000 kilocalories per capita per day, with 80% vegetal food and 20% animal products). The LPJmL vegetation and hydrology model was used to calculate spatially and explicitly the variation in food production, green-blue water availability and the water requirements to produce that very diet. An FPU was considered water scarce if its water availability was not sufficient to produce the diet (i

  8. Changes in interannual and interdecadal precipitation variability from millennial-scale climate model runs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moyer, E. J.; Schwarzwald, K.; Chang, W.; McInerney, D.; Huang, W. K.; Zhorin, V.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding future changes in climate variability, which can impact human activities, is a current research priority. Changes in long-timescale variability are of particular concern, since droughts of multi-year duration can be devastating to human societies. These changes are however difficult to identify in the relatively short and non-stationary model runs of the CMIP5 archive and are best studied instead through millennial-scale climate simulations. We show here analysis of multi-millennial runs of the CCSM3 model in both pre-industrial and elevated CO2 conditions, using spectral analysis to describe the frequency dependence of variability differences in monthly precipitation. We find that in these runs, changes in precipitation variability largely scale with changes in means, both in individual locations and in the global mean, and that these changes show little frequency dependence. That is, interannual and multi-decadal variability show similar changes as are exhibited at sub-annual frequencies. The consistent response across frequencies suggests that changes in individual processes (e.g. ENSO) do not dominate projected changes in low-frequency precipitation variability.

  9. Evaluation of Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System: seasonal hindcasts of the recent past climate.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Markovic, M.

    2015-12-01

    Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) has been operationally active within the Meteorological Service of Canada since the year of 2011. This coupled (atmosphere-land-ocean) system is in charge of producing seasonal forecasts of near surface temperature and precipitation for the following 12 months with respect to the forecast onset. CanSIPS comprises two coupled atmosphere-land-ocean models: CanCM3 and CanCM4 developed in Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis. Each model produces ten-member ensemble forecasts which generate twenty member ensemble predictions. In this work we evaluate seasonal hindcasts of the recent past climate (1981-2010) simulated by the CanSIPS system. The importance of such evaluation stems from the fact that seasonal hindcasts can be used to calibrate the results of the seasonal predictions. Calibrated forecasts have in general more skill compared to the raw predictions. Moreover, verification of seasonal hindcasts enables an estimation of the expected performance of the prediction system over various regions and seasons (i.e. expected skill maps). Evaluation will be presented against reanalysis data. Near surface temperature and precipitation will be assessed over different geographical locations and various lead times.

  10. Using Biologically-informed Climatic Factors to Reconstruct Interannual Carbon Exchange in a California's Grassland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, S.; Baldocchi, D.

    2006-12-01

    We found that interannual variability in annual carbon fluxes, based on eddy covariance measurements over an annual grassland in California, were mainly controlled by the spring precipitation of the current season, from March to June (PPT3-6}). The relationship was validated in most of climate conditions with aboveground net primary productions of the grassland (1980-2006), but some years were erratic. Inconsistency occurred when the spring of the previous year was wet, defined by precipitation > 75% quantile. Since 1949, there have been 16 years with a wet spring. Within this subset of 16 years, there have been 4 years with a wet spring of the previous year. We discussed biological reasons that caused the inconsistency in scaling carbon fluxes. Gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Reco}), and net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE) were restructured according to PPT3-6} from 1949 2006. Except for the erratic years, mean and standard deviation of annual GPP, Reco}, and NEE were 814±166 gC m-2, 821±89 gC m^{- 2}, and 6±76 gC m-2, respectively. As a result, the grassed switched between a carbon sink and source. Increasing one unit in annual GPP caused 0.5 unit increases in annual Reco}. This study provided a practicable method of reconstructing ecosystem carbon exchange based on historical climate data, implying assessment of longer-term ecological and biometeorological measurements.

  11. Interannual Variations in the South Asian Haze : Implications to Climate Variability Including ENSO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramanathan, V.; Chung, C. E.

    2002-05-01

    Aerosols are regionally concentrated and are subject to large temporal variations, even on inter-annual time scales. The fundamental reasons for this large variability are the short life times of aerosols and the important role of transport in regulating their regional concentrations. In this study, we focus on the observed large interannual variability of the South Asian haze, estimate the corresponding variations in its radiative forcing, and use a general circulation model to study the impact on global climate variability. The South Asian haze is wide spread haze, covering most of the North Indian ocean including the Arabian sea and the bay of Bengal. The southernmost extent of the haze varies year to year from about 10 S to about 5 N. In order to understand the impact of this interannual variation in the haze forcing, we conducted two numerical experiments with two extreme locations of the forcing: 1) extended haze forcing (EHF) and 2) shrunk haze forcing (SHF). The former has the forcing applied northward of 10oS and the latter confined top regions north of equator, and these two cases represent two extreme phases of the satellite retrieved AODs (Aerosol Optical Depths) over the Indian Ocean. Each of the two numerical experiments was implemented into the NCAR/CCM3 with the climatological (but seasonally varying) SST to estimate the climate sensitivity to the area of the aerosol forcing. Over India where the forcing is centered, the simulated climate changes are very similar between the two experiments. In remote regions however, the responses differ substantially. First, both experiments simulate the wintertime drought over southwest Asia, with the extended forcing simulating far more severe drought. Second, the extended forcing significantly suppresses convection in the western equatorial Pacific during the boreal wintertime, and the shrunk forcing leads to much less suppression. Since the western Pacific convection suppression would relax the trade winds

  12. Intraseasonal-to-interannual variability of the Indian Monsoon: the present climate and future projections of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carvalho, L. V.; Jones, C.; Cannon, F.

    2014-12-01

    The Asia Monsoon is among Earth's most intriguing and spectacular phenomena. The Indian Monsoon System (IMS) is a regional manifestation this continental-scale phenomenon with complex characteristics and predictive challenges. India exhibits one of the largest rates of population growth that relies on IMS cycle for water supply. Thus, understanding the temporal variability of the IMS is essential to realistically predict the impacts of climate change on Asia's water resources and food security. Here we investigate intraseasonal-to-interannual variability of the IMS in the climate of the 20th century using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and examine future scenarios of climate change using the high spatial resolution models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) project. IMS is characterized with a large-scale index continuous in time and obtained by performing combined EOF analysis (CEOF) of variables that characterize the monsoon cycle: precipitation, low level circulation at 10 m, specific humidity and temperature at 2m. CFSR is used to derive the index (1979-2013). Projections of the CEOF onto the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) indicate that the first CEOF captures the large-scale features of the South and East Asia Monsoon. The second CEOF is associated with the IMS and its time coefficient is used as large-scale index for the IMS (LIMS). LIMS realistically defines IMS onset and withdrawal, and its amplitude associates with total seasonal precipitation. Moreover, the spectral analysis of the ISMI shows peaks on intraseasonal timescales that are related to IMS's active and break phases. Moreover, we demonstrate that LIMS identifies the interannual variability of IMS and can be used to investigate floods and droughts that have occurred over India. Similar approach is used to investigate the skill of the CMIP5 models in realistically simulating active and break phases of the IMS in the 'historic' run (1951-2005). We

  13. Millennium-scale crossdating and inter-annual climate sensitivities of standing California redwoods.

    PubMed

    Carroll, Allyson L; Sillett, Stephen C; Kramer, Russell D

    2014-01-01

    Extremely decay-resistant wood and fire-resistant bark allow California's redwoods to accumulate millennia of annual growth rings that can be useful in biological research. Whereas tree rings of Sequoiadendron giganteum (SEGI) helped formalize the study of dendrochronology and the principle of crossdating, those of Sequoia sempervirens (SESE) have proven much more difficult to decipher, greatly limiting dendroclimatic and other investigations of this species. We overcame these problems by climbing standing trees and coring trunks at multiple heights in 14 old-growth forest locations across California. Overall, we sampled 1,466 series with 483,712 annual rings from 120 trees and were able to crossdate 83% of SESE compared to 99% of SEGI rings. Standard and residual tree-ring chronologies spanning up to 1,685 years for SESE and 1,538 years for SEGI were created for each location to evaluate crossdating and to examine correlations between annual growth and climate. We used monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and drought severity as well as summer cloudiness to quantify potential drivers of inter-annual growth variation over century-long time series at each location. SESE chronologies exhibited a latitudinal gradient of climate sensitivities, contrasting cooler northern rainforests and warmer, drier southern forests. Radial growth increased with decreasing summer cloudiness in northern rainforests and a central SESE location. The strongest dendroclimatic relationship occurred in our southernmost SESE location, where radial growth correlated negatively with dry summer conditions and exhibited responses to historic fires. SEGI chronologies showed negative correlations with June temperature and positive correlations with previous October precipitation. More work is needed to understand quantitative relationships between SEGI radial growth and moisture availability, particularly snowmelt. Tree-ring chronologies developed here for both redwood species have

  14. Millennium-Scale Crossdating and Inter-Annual Climate Sensitivities of Standing California Redwoods

    PubMed Central

    Carroll, Allyson L.; Sillett, Stephen C.; Kramer, Russell D.

    2014-01-01

    Extremely decay-resistant wood and fire-resistant bark allow California’s redwoods to accumulate millennia of annual growth rings that can be useful in biological research. Whereas tree rings of Sequoiadendron giganteum (SEGI) helped formalize the study of dendrochronology and the principle of crossdating, those of Sequoia sempervirens (SESE) have proven much more difficult to decipher, greatly limiting dendroclimatic and other investigations of this species. We overcame these problems by climbing standing trees and coring trunks at multiple heights in 14 old-growth forest locations across California. Overall, we sampled 1,466 series with 483,712 annual rings from 120 trees and were able to crossdate 83% of SESE compared to 99% of SEGI rings. Standard and residual tree-ring chronologies spanning up to 1,685 years for SESE and 1,538 years for SEGI were created for each location to evaluate crossdating and to examine correlations between annual growth and climate. We used monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and drought severity as well as summer cloudiness to quantify potential drivers of inter-annual growth variation over century-long time series at each location. SESE chronologies exhibited a latitudinal gradient of climate sensitivities, contrasting cooler northern rainforests and warmer, drier southern forests. Radial growth increased with decreasing summer cloudiness in northern rainforests and a central SESE location. The strongest dendroclimatic relationship occurred in our southernmost SESE location, where radial growth correlated negatively with dry summer conditions and exhibited responses to historic fires. SEGI chronologies showed negative correlations with June temperature and positive correlations with previous October precipitation. More work is needed to understand quantitative relationships between SEGI radial growth and moisture availability, particularly snowmelt. Tree-ring chronologies developed here for both redwood species have

  15. Climate extremes dominating seasonal and interannual variations in carbon export from the Mississippi River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Hanqin; Ren, Wei; Yang, Jia; Tao, Bo; Cai, Wei-Jun; Lohrenz, Steven E.; Hopkinson, Charles S.; Liu, Mingliang; Yang, Qichun; Lu, Chaoqun; Zhang, Bowen; Banger, Kamaljit; Pan, Shufen; He, Ruoying; Xue, Zuo

    2015-09-01

    Knowledge about the annual and seasonal patterns of organic and inorganic carbon (C) exports from the major rivers of the world to the coastal ocean is essential for our understanding and potential management of the global C budget so as to limit anthropogenic modification of global climate. Unfortunately our predictive understanding of what controls the timing, magnitude, and quality of C export is still rudimentary. Here we use a process-based coupled hydrologic/ecosystem biogeochemistry model (the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model) to examine how climate variability and extreme events, changing land use, and atmospheric chemistry have affected the annual and seasonal patterns of C exports from the Mississippi River basin to the Gulf of Mexico. Our process-based simulations estimate that the average annual exports of dissolved organic C (DOC), particulate organic C (POC), and dissolved inorganic C (DIC) in the 2000s were 2.6 ± 0.4 Tg C yr-1, 3.4 ± 0.3 Tg C yr-1, and 18.8 ± 3.4 Tg C yr-1, respectively. Although land use change was the most important agent of change in C export over the past century, climate variability and extreme events (such as flooding and drought) were primarily responsible for seasonal and interannual variations in C export from the basin. The maximum seasonal export of DIC occurred in summer while for DOC and POC the maximum occurred in winter. Relative to the 10 year average (2001-2010), our modeling analysis indicates that the years of maximal and minimal C export cooccurred with wet and dry years (2008: 32% above average and 2006: 32% below average). Given Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-predicted changes in climate variability and the severity of rain events and droughts of wet and dry years for the remainder of the 21st century, our modeling results suggest major changes in the riverine link between the terrestrial and oceanic realms, which are likely to have a major impact on C delivery to the coastal ocean.

  16. A GCM simulation of global climate interannual variability: 1950-1988

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, I.N.

    1995-04-01

    Three long-term climate simulations have been performed with an atmospheric general circulation model using monthly global SSTs for the period 1950-1988. EOF analysis is used to study the ensemble-mean results for seasonal-mean fields as a means of evaluating the capability to simulate interannual variability. The analysis reveals a strong ENSO-related signal in the major fields of mean sea level pressure, rainfall, cloud cover, and zonal winds. The leading EOFs are compared, where possible, with observed ENSO-related patterns. The EOF for surface pressure closely resembles the Southern Oscillation pattern but, although significantly correlated with the Southern Oscillation index, cannot explain a large proportion of the observed variance. This is evident in the simulation of the 1982/83 warm event, which appears far less distinguished than observed. EOFs for both rainfall and low-level zonal winds also resemble, and are significantly correlated with, ENSO-related patterns deduced from observations. However, there are a number of important differences between the model rainfall pattern and known ENSO-related rainfall anomaly patterns that may limit any potential predictability given accurate SST forecasts. Similarly, differences between model zonal winds and observed zonal-wind stresses in the tropical Pacific would be expected to limit the performance of any coupled model comprising this particular low-resolution atmospheric GCM. 36 refs., 9 figs., 3 tabs.

  17. Diagnostics of Interannual-to-Interdecadal Climate and Streamflow Variability: Applications to Reservoir Management over NW India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robertson, A. W.; Cook, E. R.; Ghil, M.; Greene, A. M.; Kondrashov, D. A.; Lall, U.; Lu, M.

    2013-12-01

    Multi-year storage reservoirs must be managed in the face of weather and climate variability across time scales ranging from daily weather to interannual climate. While seasonal climate may contain a predictable component associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), longer time scales are not yet usefully predictable, nor is the interannual-to-interdecadal power spectrum well estimated from observed data. In addition, climate simulations from general circulation models (GCMs) are often lacking in their ability to generate realistic hydroclimate variability across time scales, especially at small spatial scales. These issues are critical for climate change adaptation planning in water management, where realistic estimates of climate and stream flow variability are required. For the Bhakra reservoir in NW India, we develop estimates of climate and stream flow variability, including the interannual-to-interdecadal power spectrum, based on (1) instrumental stream flow records of the Sutlej river, 1963-2010; (2) tree ring reconstructions of the Sutlej flow back to 1321; and (3) multi-century control simulations of precipitation-minus-evaporation made with several coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs archived in the IPCC CMIP5 database. By comparing these observed, paleo-proxy, and GCM-based estimates, we shed light on the ability of GCMs to simulate realistic hydroclimate variability over the Indus basin, as well as on the nature of tree-ring based streamflow reconstructions. In addition to these estimates of the variability spectrum, we explore the use of a nonlinear, multi-level stochastic polynomial inverse model to bridge between these different datasets.

  18. Potential impacts of a future Grand Solar Minimum on decadal regional climate change and interannual hemispherical climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spiegl, Tobias; Langematz, Ulrike

    2016-04-01

    Grand Solar Minimum under RCP6.0 conditions. The results obtained were compared to a RCP6.0 simulation that was carried out using the CCMI recommendations for a 21st century solar forcing. We used the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) chemistry-climate model that incorporates interactive ozone chemistry, a high-resolution shortwave radiation scheme, a high model top (0.01 hPa) and is coupled to a 3D ocean general circulation model. We focused on the regional responses to a future Grand Solar Minimum and interannual variability patterns (i.e. the Northern and Southern Annular Mode (NAM/SAM)).

  19. Upper air relaxation in regional climate model improves resolved interannual variability of the surface mass balance of Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van de Berg, Willem Jan; Medley, Brooke; van Meijgaard, Erik

    2015-04-01

    The surface mass balance (SMB) determines the variability of the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice sheet on sub-decadal timescales. Since continent-wide SMB cannot be measured, it must be modeled and regional climate models (RCMs) generally outperform global reanalyses in the representation of total mass flux and the spatial distribution of SMB. However, if RCMs are only forced with reanalysis on their lateral boundaries, the representation of the interannual variability of SMB deteriorates significantly. In this study we show how to improve the resolved interannual variability in RCM modeled SMB. For this purpose we use annual SMB observations in the Thwaites drainage basin in Antarctica derived from airborne radar reflections and the RCM RACMO2. RACMO2, driven by ERA-Interim, better represents the mean spatial SMB pattern in this basin than ERA-Interim. However, without relaxation in the interior, RACMO2 poorly resolves the observed interannual SMB variability. If we gently relax the temperature and wind field in the upper atmosphere in RACMO2 to ERA-Interim, RACMO2 gets the best of both. Upper air relaxation little changes the mean SMB and spatial pattern compared to the original RACMO2 output, but allows RACMO2 to resolve the observed interannual SMB as good as ERA-Interim.

  20. Changes of tropical interannual variability due to increased CO{sub 2} in a global coupled climate model

    SciTech Connect

    Meehl, G.A.

    1994-12-31

    Changes of tropical interannual variability and, in particular, variability changes associated with the south Asian summer monsoon and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are shown from a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model with increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) With a doubling of atmospheric CO{sub 2} in this model, there is a general increase of interannual variability in the tropics. The warmer land and ocean surfaces caused by increased CO{sub 2} in the model are associated with an increase in interannual variability of area-averaged south Asian monsoon rainfall. The coupled model simulates some aspects of ENSO that involve periodic warm and cold sea-surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific with associated global teleconnections. In the experiment with increased CO{sub 2}, the ENSO-like phenomena continue to occur, but with increased intensity of anomalously wet and dry areas in the tropics associated with ENSO events in the tropical eastern Pacific. For both the south Asian monsoon and ENSO in the model, an important process contributing to the enhanced interannual variability is the nonlinear relationship between evaporation and surface temperature

  1. Constructing the reduced dynamical models of interannual climate variability from spatial-distributed time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukhin, Dmitry; Gavrilov, Andrey; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    We suggest a method for empirical forecast of climate dynamics basing on the reconstruction of reduced dynamical models in a form of random dynamical systems [1,2] derived from observational time series. The construction of proper embedding - the set of variables determining the phase space the model works in - is no doubt the most important step in such a modeling, but this task is non-trivial due to huge dimension of time series of typical climatic fields. Actually, an appropriate expansion of observational time series is needed yielding the number of principal components considered as phase variables, which are to be efficient for the construction of low-dimensional evolution operator. We emphasize two main features the reduced models should have for capturing the main dynamical properties of the system: (i) taking into account time-lagged teleconnections in the atmosphere-ocean system and (ii) reflecting the nonlinear nature of these teleconnections. In accordance to these principles, in this report we present the methodology which includes the combination of a new way for the construction of an embedding by the spatio-temporal data expansion and nonlinear model construction on the basis of artificial neural networks. The methodology is aplied to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data including fields of sea level pressure, geopotential height, and wind speed, covering Northern Hemisphere. Its efficiency for the interannual forecast of various climate phenomena including ENSO, PDO, NAO and strong blocking event condition over the mid latitudes, is demonstrated. Also, we investigate the ability of the models to reproduce and predict the evolution of qualitative features of the dynamics, such as spectral peaks, critical transitions and statistics of extremes. This research was supported by the Government of the Russian Federation (Agreement No. 14.Z50.31.0033 with the Institute of Applied Physics RAS) [1] Y. I. Molkov, E. M. Loskutov, D. N. Mukhin, and A. M. Feigin, "Random

  2. Effects of interannual climate variation on phenology and growth of two alpine forbs

    SciTech Connect

    Walker, M.D.; Ingersoll, R.C.; Webber, P.J.

    1995-06-01

    Variations in growth, flowering, and phenology of two forbs, Acomastylis rossii and Bistorta bistortoides, were compared among six years (1983-1988) and five plant communities (fellfield, dry meadow, moist meadow, wet meadow, snowbed) at an alpine site in the Front Range of Colorado. The purpose was to determine the extent to which the phenological patterns of these species varied among plant communities and how interannual climate variability affects phenology and growth. There were significant differences in growth among communities for both species. In B. bistortoides, there were also significant differences among years, due primarily to the influence of a single year (1983) when leaf length increased by {approximately}10% and the average number of B. bistortoides leaves nearly doubled. Key phenological events of both species (initiation of growth, date of maximum leaf length, leaf number, and flower number) were related to snowmelt patterns, resulting in differences among communities. There were also significant differences among years, again primarily related to the single year 1983, the year of a major El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event that produced high snowfall amounts at the site. The increased leaf length in a high snow year is counterintuitive to the commonly accepted notion that alpine species may be limited by season length. We hypothesize that changes in phenology related to changes in snowfall or snowmelt will cause detectable changes in growth, but that these will not be predicted simply from phenology alone. Rather, the timing of snowmelt in relation to nutrient availability, soil moisture, and air temperature will be critical in determining how individual species respond. 90 refs., 7 figs., 3 tabs.

  3. Identifying the Holocene evolution of interannual climate variability in Southern California river runoff records.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hendy, I. L.; Hinnov, L.; Brown, E. T.; Napier, T.

    2015-12-01

    Precipitation patterns in southern California are strongly correlated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) climate variability during the 20th Century. Heavy rainfall in southern California is generated by warm-wet storms associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) producing flood events, while drought conditions occur when winter precipitation associated with north Pacific low pressure systems does not reach the region. Winter rainfall delivers siliciclastic sediment to Santa Barbara Basin (SBB), CA while spring summer marine productivity provides biogenic sediment resulting in a simple two component laminae couplet. Laminations are preserved in the low oxygen bottom of SBB providing a high temporal resolution paleoclimate record. Here we present scanning XRF generated annually resolved elemental concentrations for the last 9.5 ka in SBB from SPR0901-03KC (34°16.99'N; 120°2.408'W) and MV0811-14JPC (34°16.54'N; 120°2.10'W) in ~586 m water depth. High siliciclastic elemental counts are interpreted as indicating increased river runoff, while low values indicate droughts. Floods events indicative of extreme precipitation events occur throughout the Holocene, however long intervals between floods occur 8.5-7 Ka, 5.6-6.4 Ka and 0.8-1.1 Ka. Notable droughts occur 5.6-6.1, 4.7-5.1, 3.5-4.1, 2.6, 2.1, 1.8, 1.1 and 0.9 Ka. Spectral analysis indicates silicilastic elemental peaks are close to an annual resolution, however annual tuning increases the power of the interannual frequencies without changing the frequency appreciably. High frequency variability is lost during drought intervals.

  4. Ground-Water Availability Responses to Climate Variability on Interannual to Multidecadal Timescales, Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer System, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gurdak, J. J.; Clark, B. R.; Hanson, R. T.; Scheiderer, R. M.

    2008-12-01

    Climate variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales has important implications for the availability of global ground-water resources. Spatiotemporal patterns in precipitation, air temperature, evapotranspiration, drought, streamflow, and recharge are partially controlled by the variability in climate forcings on interannual to multidecadal timescales. Because these climate-varying conditions can augment or diminish human stresses (pumping) on ground water, the responses in water levels and ground-water storage can be dramatic when different climate cycles lie coincident in a positive (wet/cool) or negative (dry/warm) phase of variability. Thus, understanding climate cycles on these timescales has particular relevance for management decisions during drought and for ground-water resources close to the limits of sustainability. The objective of this study is to quantify the response of ground-water resources in the Mississippi Embayment Regional aquifer system (USA) (>181,000 km2) to natural climate variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales and to use that knowledge to improve calibration of ground-water availability modeling that will predict the responses in this regional aquifer system over the next twenty-five to fifty years. The Mississippi Embayment Regional aquifer system is an important water resource used predominantly for public-drinking and agricultural supply across parts of seven States (Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee). Using singular spectrum analysis of long-term hydrologic time series, the signal of ground-water pumping was removed and natural variations were identified in all tree ring, precipitation, air temperature, and ground-water level time series as partially coincident with known climate forcings; including the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (2 to 6 year cycle), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (10 to 25 year cycle), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (50 to 80 year cycle

  5. Climatic warming disrupts recurrent Alpine insect outbreaks

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Derek M.; Büntgen, Ulf; Frank, David C.; Kausrud, Kyrre; Haynes, Kyle J.; Liebhold, Andrew M.; Esper, Jan; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change has been identified as a causal factor for diverse ecological changes worldwide. Warming trends over the last couple of decades have coincided with the collapse of long-term population cycles in a broad range of taxa, although causal mechanisms are not well-understood. Larch budmoth (LBM) population dynamics across the European Alps, a classic example of regular outbreaks, inexplicably changed sometime during the 1980s after 1,200 y of nearly uninterrupted periodic outbreak cycles. Herein, analysis of perhaps the most extensive spatiotemporal dataset of population dynamics and reconstructed Alpine-wide LBM defoliation records reveals elevational shifts in LBM outbreak epicenters that coincide with temperature fluctuations over two centuries. A population model supports the hypothesis that temperature-mediated shifting of the optimal elevation for LBM population growth is the mechanism for elevational epicenter changes. Increases in the optimal elevation for population growth over the warming period of the last century to near the distributional limit of host larch likely dampened population cycles, thereby causing the collapse of a millennium-long outbreak cycle. The threshold-like change in LBM outbreak pattern highlights how interacting species with differential response rates to climate change can result in dramatic ecological changes. PMID:21059922

  6. Interannual climate variations in Arctic as driven by the Global atmosphere oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serykh, Ilya; Byshev, Vladimir; Neiman, Victor; Sidorova, Alexandra; Sonechkin, Dmitry

    2015-04-01

    The present-day global climate change affects the Arctic basin substantially more because of the sea ice cover extinction and the permafrost melting. But there are essential variations of these effects from year to year. We believe that these variations might be a regional manifestation of a planetary-scale phenomenon named the Global atmospheric oscillation (GAO). GAO includes the well-known El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) process and similar processes in equatorial Atlantic and Indian Oceans within itself. The goal of this report is to present some arguments to support this point of view. For this goal, we have studied some interrelations between the above-mentioned Arctic anomalies and GAO as seen in global re-analyses of the sea level pressure (SLP) and near surface temperature (NST) for the period of 1920-2013. The mean global fields of SLP and NST have been computed for all El Niño events falling into this time period, and separately, for all and La Niña events. As a result, two (for SLP and NST as well) global fields of the mean El Niño/La Niña difference were obtained. Statistical significance of the non-zero values of these fields, i.e. the reality of GAO, was evaluated with the t-Student's test. It turned out that the main spatial structures of GAO, presented specifically by El Niño and La Niña events in Pacific region, exist at a very high level (up to 99%, t>4) of the significance. Therefore, one can conclude that the interannual-scale dynamics of GAO is actually reflected in the climate features of different regions of the Earth, including the Russian Arctic. In particular, when the boreal winter season coincides with an El Niño event GAO is indicative by a negative anomaly of NST (about -1°C) and a positive anomaly of SLP over the Arctic basin. In contrary, significant (about +1°C) positive anomaly of NST along with reduced SLP over the whole Arctic region is typical for any La Niña event (up to 95%, t>2). To control the reliability

  7. A Coral-based Reconstruction of Interannual Climate Variability at Vanuatu during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950-1250 CE)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawman, A. E.; Quinn, T. M.; Partin, J. W.; Taylor, F. W.; Thirumalai, K.; WU, C. C.; Shen, C. C.

    2016-12-01

    The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA: 950-1250 CE) is identified as a period during the last 2 millennia with Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures similar to the present. However, our understanding of tropical climate variability during the MCA is poorly constrained due to a lack of proxy records. We investigate the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the leading mode of global interannual variability, during the MCA using geochemical records developed from well preserved fossilized corals from the tropical southwest Pacific (Tasmaloum, Vanuatu; 15° 37' S, 166° 54.5' E). We use paired coral Sr/Ca and δ18O measurements to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) and the δ18O of seawater (a proxy for salinity) variability associated with ENSO. We present Sr/Ca and δ18O data from a 1.68-m-long Porites lutea coral head collected from Tasmaloum, Vanuatu. An absolute U/Th date of 1127.1 ± 2.7 CE indicates that the selected coral lived during the MCA. Preliminary assessment of >65 years of monthly resolved Sr/Ca data yields a mean value of 8.937 ± 0.120 mmol/mol (2σ, n = 757), and an average seasonal cycle of 0.156 ± 0.009 mmol/mol or 2.7 ± 0.1°C based on modern Sr/Ca-SST calibrations. We find that the magnitude and variability of the SST seasonal cycle is comparable to gridded and in situ SST datasets for Vanuatu as well as a published, modern 165 year-long coral record from Sabine Bank, Vanuatu, located 90 km to the SW of Tasmaloum. Applying a 2-8 year band pass filter to the Sr/Ca time series, we identify 8 El Niño and 3 La Niña events based on Sr/Ca (SST) anomalies. Preliminary assessment of >45 years of paired δ18O measurements yields a mean value of -4.67 ± 0.43‰ (2σ, n = 373). We also identify ENSO activity in the 2-8 year band pass filtered data. We expect to develop a 120-year record of paired coral Sr/Ca and δ18O measurements when data acquisition is complete, which will be used to investigate the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events

  8. Interannual to Decadal Variability of Ocean Evaporation as Viewed from Climate Reanalyses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Roberts, Jason B.; Wang, Hailan

    2015-01-01

    Questions we'll address: Given the uncoupled framework of "AMIP" (Atmosphere Model Inter-comparison Project) experiments, what can they tell us regarding evaporation variability? Do Reduced Observations Reanalyses (RedObs) using Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SFC) pressure (and wind) provide a more realistic picture of evaporation variability? What signals of interannual variability (e.g. El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) and decadal variability (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)) are detectable with this hierarchy of evaporation estimates?

  9. Predicted Changes in Interannual Water-Level Fluctuations Due to Climate Change and Its Implications for the Vegetation of the Florida Everglades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Valk, Arnold G.; Volin, John C.; Wetzel, Paul R.

    2015-04-01

    The number of dominant vegetation types (wet prairies, sawgrass flats, ridges and sloughs, sloughs, and tree islands) historically and currently found in the Everglades, FL, USA, as with other wetlands with standing water, appears to be primarily a function of the magnitude of interannual water-level fluctuations. Analyses of 40 years of water-depth data were used to estimate the magnitude of contemporary (baseline) water-level fluctuations in undisturbed ridge and slough landscapes. Baseline interannual water-level fluctuations above the soil surface were at least 1.5 m. Predicted changes in interannual water-level fluctuations in 2060 were examined for seven climate change scenarios. When rainfall is predicted to increase by 10 %, the wettest scenario, the interannual range of water-level fluctuation increases to 1.8 m above the soil surface in sloughs. When rainfall is predicted to decrease by 10 % and temperatures to increase by 1.5 °C, the driest scenario, the range of interannual range of water-level fluctuations is predicted to decrease to 1.2 m above the soil surface in sloughs. A change of 25-30 cm in interannual water-level fluctuations is needed to change the number of vegetation types in a wetland. This suggests that the two most extreme climate change scenarios could have a significant impact on the overall structure of wetland vegetation, i.e., the number of vegetation types or zones, found in the Everglades.

  10. Predicted changes in interannual water-level fluctuations due to climate change and its implications for the vegetation of the Florida Everglades.

    PubMed

    van der Valk, Arnold G; Volin, John C; Wetzel, Paul R

    2015-04-01

    The number of dominant vegetation types (wet prairies, sawgrass flats, ridges and sloughs, sloughs, and tree islands) historically and currently found in the Everglades, FL, USA, as with other wetlands with standing water, appears to be primarily a function of the magnitude of interannual water-level fluctuations. Analyses of 40 years of water-depth data were used to estimate the magnitude of contemporary (baseline) water-level fluctuations in undisturbed ridge and slough landscapes. Baseline interannual water-level fluctuations above the soil surface were at least 1.5 m. Predicted changes in interannual water-level fluctuations in 2060 were examined for seven climate change scenarios. When rainfall is predicted to increase by 10 %, the wettest scenario, the interannual range of water-level fluctuation increases to 1.8 m above the soil surface in sloughs. When rainfall is predicted to decrease by 10 % and temperatures to increase by 1.5 °C, the driest scenario, the range of interannual range of water-level fluctuations is predicted to decrease to 1.2 m above the soil surface in sloughs. A change of 25-30 cm in interannual water-level fluctuations is needed to change the number of vegetation types in a wetland. This suggests that the two most extreme climate change scenarios could have a significant impact on the overall structure of wetland vegetation, i.e., the number of vegetation types or zones, found in the Everglades.

  11. Interannual variation of carbon fluxes from three contrasting evergreen forests: the role of forest dynamics and climate.

    PubMed

    Sierra, Carlos A; Loescher, Henry W; Harmon, Mark E; Richardson, Andrew D; Hollinger, David Y; Perakis, Steven S

    2009-10-01

    Interannual variation of carbon fluxes can be attributed to a number of biotic and abiotic controls that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Type and frequency of disturbance, forest dynamics, and climate regimes are important sources of variability. Assessing the variability of carbon fluxes from these specific sources can enhance the interpretation of past and current observations. Being able to separate the variability caused by forest dynamics from that induced by climate will also give us the ability to determine if the current observed carbon fluxes are within an expected range or whether the ecosystem is undergoing unexpected change. Sources of interannual variation in ecosystem carbon fluxes from three evergreen ecosystems, a tropical, a temperate coniferous, and a boreal forest, were explored using the simulation model STANDCARB. We identified key processes that introduced variation in annual fluxes, but their relative importance differed among the ecosystems studied. In the tropical site, intrinsic forest dynamics contributed approximately 30% of the total variation in annual carbon fluxes. In the temperate and boreal sites, where many forest processes occur over longer temporal scales than those at the tropical site, climate controlled more of the variation among annual fluxes. These results suggest that climate-related variability affects the rates of carbon exchange differently among sites. Simulations in which temperature, precipitation, and radiation varied from year to year (based on historical records of climate variation) had less net carbon stores than simulations in which these variables were held constant (based on historical records of monthly average climate), a result caused by the functional relationship between temperature and respiration. This suggests that, under a more variable temperature regime, large respiratory pulses may become more frequent and high enough to cause a reduction in ecosystem carbon stores. Our results

  12. Interannual variation of carbon fluxes from three contrasting evergreen forests: The role of forest dynamics and climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sierra, C.A.; Loescher, H.W.; Harmon, M.E.; Richardson, A.D.; Hollinger, D.Y.; Perakis, S.S.

    2009-01-01

    Interannual variation of carbon fluxes can be attributed to a number of biotic and abiotic controls that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Type and frequency of disturbance, forest dynamics, and climate regimes are important sources of variability. Assessing the variability of carbon fluxes from these specific sources can enhance the interpretation of past and current observations. Being able to separate the variability caused by forest dynamics from that induced by climate will also give us the ability to determine if the current observed carbon fluxes are within an expected range or whether the ecosystem is undergoing unexpected change. Sources of interannual variation in ecosystem carbon fluxes from three evergreen ecosystems, a tropical, a temperate coniferous, and a boreal forest, were explored using the simulation model STANDCARB. We identified key processes that introduced variation in annual fluxes, but their relative importance differed among the ecosystems studied. In the tropical site, intrinsic forest dynamics contributed ?? 30% of the total variation in annual carbon fluxes. In the temperate and boreal sites, where many forest processes occur over longer temporal scales than those at the tropical site, climate controlled more of the variation among annual fluxes. These results suggest that climate-related variability affects the rates of carbon exchange differently among sites. Simulations in which temperature, precipitation, and radiation varied from year to year (based on historical records of climate variation) had less net carbon stores than simulations in which these variables were held constant (based on historical records of monthly average climate), a result caused by the functional relationship between temperature and respiration. This suggests that, under a more variable temperature regime, large respiratory pulses may become more frequent and high enough to cause a reduction in ecosystem carbon stores. Our results also show

  13. Changes in interannual climate sensitivities of terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 21st century predicted by CMIP5 Earth System Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Yongwen; Wang, Tao; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong

    2016-03-01

    Terrestrial carbon fluxes are sensitive to climate change, but the interannual climate sensitivity of the land carbon cycle can also change with time. We analyzed the changes in responses of net biome production (NBP), net primary production (NPP), and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) to interannual climate variations over the 21st century in the Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, interannual temperature sensitivities of NBP (γTempNBP), NPP (γTempNPP), and Rh (γTempRh) remain relatively stable at global scale, yet with large differences among ESMs and spatial heterogeneity. Modeled γTempNPP and γTempRh appear to increase in parallel in boreal regions, resulting in unchanged γTempNBP. Tropical γTempNBP decreases in most models, due to decreasing γTempNPP and relatively stable γTempRh. Across models, the changes in γTempNBP can be mainly explained by changes in γTempNPP rather than changes in γTempRh, at both global and regional scales. Interannual precipitation sensitivities of global NBP (γPrecNBP), NPP (γPrecNPP), and Rh (γPrecRh) are predicted not to change significantly, with large differences among ESMs. Across models, the changes in γPrecNBP can be mainly explained by changes in γPrecNPP rather than changes in γPrecRh in temperate regions, but not in other regions. Changes in the interannual climate sensitivities of carbon fluxes are consistent across RCPs 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 but larger in more intensive scenarios. More effort should be considered to improve terrestrial carbon flux responses to interannual climate variability, e.g., incorporating biogeochemical processes of nutrient limitation, permafrost dynamics, and microbial decomposition.

  14. Feedback of observed interannual vegetation change: a regional climate model analysis for the West African monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klein, Cornelia; Bliefernicht, Jan; Heinzeller, Dominikus; Gessner, Ursula; Klein, Igor; Kunstmann, Harald

    2017-05-01

    West Africa is a hot spot region for land-atmosphere coupling where atmospheric conditions and convective rainfall can strongly depend on surface characteristics. To investigate the effect of natural interannual vegetation changes on the West African monsoon precipitation, we implement satellite-derived dynamical datasets for vegetation fraction (VF), albedo and leaf area index into the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Two sets of 4-member ensembles with dynamic and static land surface description are used to extract vegetation-related changes in the interannual difference between August-September 2009 and 2010. The observed vegetation patterns retain a significant long-term memory of preceding rainfall patterns of at least 2 months. The interannual vegetation changes exhibit the strongest effect on latent heat fluxes and associated surface temperatures. We find a decrease (increase) of rainy hours over regions with higher (lower) VF during the day and the opposite during the night. The probability that maximum precipitation is shifted to nighttime (daytime) over higher (lower) VF is 12 % higher than by chance. We attribute this behaviour to horizontal circulations driven by differential heating. Over more vegetated regions, the divergence of moist air together with lower sensible heat fluxes hinders the initiation of deep convection during the day. During the night, mature convective systems cause an increase in the number of rainy hours over these regions. We identify this feedback in both water- and energy-limited regions of West Africa. The inclusion of observed dynamical surface information improved the spatial distribution of modelled rainfall in the Sahel with respect to observations, illustrating the potential of satellite data as a boundary constraint for atmospheric models.

  15. Feedback of observed interannual vegetation change: a regional climate model analysis for the West African monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klein, Cornelia; Bliefernicht, Jan; Heinzeller, Dominikus; Gessner, Ursula; Klein, Igor; Kunstmann, Harald

    2016-06-01

    West Africa is a hot spot region for land-atmosphere coupling where atmospheric conditions and convective rainfall can strongly depend on surface characteristics. To investigate the effect of natural interannual vegetation changes on the West African monsoon precipitation, we implement satellite-derived dynamical datasets for vegetation fraction (VF), albedo and leaf area index into the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Two sets of 4-member ensembles with dynamic and static land surface description are used to extract vegetation-related changes in the interannual difference between August-September 2009 and 2010. The observed vegetation patterns retain a significant long-term memory of preceding rainfall patterns of at least 2 months. The interannual vegetation changes exhibit the strongest effect on latent heat fluxes and associated surface temperatures. We find a decrease (increase) of rainy hours over regions with higher (lower) VF during the day and the opposite during the night. The probability that maximum precipitation is shifted to nighttime (daytime) over higher (lower) VF is 12 % higher than by chance. We attribute this behaviour to horizontal circulations driven by differential heating. Over more vegetated regions, the divergence of moist air together with lower sensible heat fluxes hinders the initiation of deep convection during the day. During the night, mature convective systems cause an increase in the number of rainy hours over these regions. We identify this feedback in both water- and energy-limited regions of West Africa. The inclusion of observed dynamical surface information improved the spatial distribution of modelled rainfall in the Sahel with respect to observations, illustrating the potential of satellite data as a boundary constraint for atmospheric models.

  16. Effects of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of evapotranspiration in a coniferous plantation in subtropical China.

    PubMed

    Xu, Mingjie; Wen, Xuefa; Wang, Huimin; Zhang, Wenjiang; Dai, Xiaoqin; Song, Jie; Wang, Yidong; Fu, Xiaoli; Liu, Yunfen; Sun, Xiaomin; Yu, Guirui

    2014-01-01

    Because evapotranspiration (ET) is the second largest component of the water cycle and a critical process in terrestrial ecosystems, understanding the inter-annual variability of ET is important in the context of global climate change. Eight years of continuous eddy covariance measurements (2003-2010) in a subtropical coniferous plantation were used to investigate the impacts of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of ET. The mean and standard deviation of annual ET for 2003-2010 were 786.9 and 103.4 mm (with a coefficient of variation of 13.1%), respectively. The inter-annual variability of ET was largely created in three periods: March, May-June, and October, which are the transition periods between seasons. A set of look-up table approaches were used to separate the sources of inter-annual variability of ET. The annual ETs were calculated by assuming that (a) both the climate and ecosystem responses among years are variable (Vcli-eco), (b) the climate is variable but the ecosystem responses are constant (Vcli), and (c) the climate is constant but ecosystem responses are variable (Veco). The ETs that were calculated under the above assumptions suggested that the inter-annual variability of ET was dominated by ecosystem responses and that there was a negative interaction between the effects of climate and ecosystem responses. These results suggested that for long-term predictions of water and energy balance in global climate change projections, the ecosystem responses must be taken into account to better constrain the uncertainties associated with estimation.

  17. Effects of Climatic Factors and Ecosystem Responses on the Inter-Annual Variability of Evapotranspiration in a Coniferous Plantation in Subtropical China

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Mingjie; Wen, Xuefa; Wang, Huimin; Zhang, Wenjiang; Dai, Xiaoqin; Song, Jie; Wang, Yidong; Fu, Xiaoli; Liu, Yunfen; Sun, Xiaomin; Yu, Guirui

    2014-01-01

    Because evapotranspiration (ET) is the second largest component of the water cycle and a critical process in terrestrial ecosystems, understanding the inter-annual variability of ET is important in the context of global climate change. Eight years of continuous eddy covariance measurements (2003–2010) in a subtropical coniferous plantation were used to investigate the impacts of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of ET. The mean and standard deviation of annual ET for 2003–2010 were 786.9 and 103.4 mm (with a coefficient of variation of 13.1%), respectively. The inter-annual variability of ET was largely created in three periods: March, May–June, and October, which are the transition periods between seasons. A set of look-up table approaches were used to separate the sources of inter-annual variability of ET. The annual ETs were calculated by assuming that (a) both the climate and ecosystem responses among years are variable (Vcli-eco), (b) the climate is variable but the ecosystem responses are constant (Vcli), and (c) the climate is constant but ecosystem responses are variable (Veco). The ETs that were calculated under the above assumptions suggested that the inter-annual variability of ET was dominated by ecosystem responses and that there was a negative interaction between the effects of climate and ecosystem responses. These results suggested that for long-term predictions of water and energy balance in global climate change projections, the ecosystem responses must be taken into account to better constrain the uncertainties associated with estimation. PMID:24465610

  18. Drivers of interannual variability in virioplankton abundance at the coastal western Antarctic peninsula and the potential effects of climate change.

    PubMed

    Evans, Claire; Brandsma, Joost; Pond, David W; Venables, Hugh J; Meredith, Michael P; Witte, Harry J; Stammerjohn, Sharon; Wilson, William H; Clarke, Andrew; Brussaard, Corina P D

    2017-02-01

    An 8-year time-series in the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) with an approximately weekly sampling frequency was used to elucidate changes in virioplankton abundance and their drivers in this climatically sensitive region. Virioplankton abundances at the coastal WAP show a pronounced seasonal cycle with interannual variability in the timing and magnitude of the summer maxima. Bacterioplankton abundance is the most influential driving factor of the virioplankton, and exhibit closely coupled dynamics. Sea ice cover and duration predetermine levels of phytoplankton stock and thus, influence virioplankton by dictating the substrates available to the bacterioplankton. However, variations in the composition of the phytoplankton community and particularly the prominence of Diatoms inferred from silicate drawdown, drive interannual differences in the magnitude of the virioplankton bloom; likely again mediated through changes in the bacterioplankton. Their findings suggest that future warming within the WAP will cause changes in sea ice that will influence viruses and their microbial hosts through changes in the timing, magnitude and composition of the phytoplankton bloom. Thus, the flow of matter and energy through the viral shunt may be decreased with consequences for the Antarctic food web and element cycling. © 2017 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Climatic controls of interannual variability in regional carbon fluxes from top-down and bottom-up perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Desai, Ankur R.; Helliker, Brent R.; Moorcroft, Paul R.; Andrews, Arlyn E.; Berry, Joseph A.

    2010-06-01

    Observations of regional net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 for 1997-2007 were analyzed for climatic controls on interannual variability (IAV). Quantifying IAV of regional (104-106 km2) NEE over long time periods is key to understanding potential feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle. Four independent techniques estimated monthly regional NEE for 104 km2 in a spatially heterogeneous temperate-boreal transition region of the north central United States, centered on the Park Falls, Wisconsin, United States, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tall tower site. These techniques included two bottom-up methods, based on flux tower upscaling and forest inventory based demographic modeling, respectively, and two top-down methods, based on tall tower equilibrium boundary layer budgets and tracer-transport inversion, respectively. While all four methods revealed a moderate carbon sink, they diverged significantly in magnitude. Coherence of relative magnitude and variability of NEE anomalies was strong across the methods. The strongest coherence was a trend of declining carbon sink since 2002. Most climatic controls were not strongly correlated with IAV. Significant controls on IAV were those related to hydrology, such as water table depth, and atmospheric CO2. Weaker relationships were found with phenological controls such as autumn soil temperature. Hydrologic relationships were strongest with a 1 year lag, potentially highlighting a previously unrecognized predictor of IAV in this region. These results highlight a need for continued development of techniques to estimate regional IAV and incorporation of hydrologic cycling into couple carbon-climate models.

  20. Climate drives inter-annual variability in probability of high severity fire occurrence in the western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keyser, Alisa; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

    2017-05-01

    A long history of fire suppression in the western United States has significantly changed forest structure and ecological function, leading to increasingly uncharacteristic fires in terms of size and severity. Prior analyses of fire severity in California forests showed that time since last fire and fire weather conditions predicted fire severity very well, while a larger regional analysis showed that topography and climate were important predictors of high severity fire. There has not yet been a large-scale study that incorporates topography, vegetation and fire-year climate to determine regional scale high severity fire occurrence. We developed models to predict the probability of high severity fire occurrence for the western US. We predict high severity fire occurrence with some accuracy, and identify the relative importance of predictor classes in determining the probability of high severity fire. The inclusion of both vegetation and fire-year climate predictors was critical for model skill in identifying fires with high fractional fire severity. The inclusion of fire-year climate variables allows this model to forecast inter-annual variability in areas at future risk of high severity fire, beyond what slower-changing fuel conditions alone can accomplish. This allows for more targeted land management, including resource allocation for fuels reduction treatments to decrease the risk of high severity fire.

  1. El Niño and the related phenomenon Southern Oscillation (ENSO): the largest signal in interannual climate variation.

    PubMed

    Wang, H J; Zhang, R H; Cole, J; Chavez, F

    1999-09-28

    El Niño and the related phenomenon Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest signal in the interannual variation of ocean-atmosphere system. It is mainly a tropical event but its impact is global. ENSO has been drawing great scientific attention in many international research programs. There has been an observational system for the tropical ocean, and scientists have known the climatologies of the upper ocean, developed some theories about the ENSO cycle, and established coupled ocean-atmosphere models to give encouraging predictions of ENSO for a 1-year lead. However, questions remain about the physical mechanisms for the ENSO cycle and its irregularity, ENSO-monsoon interactions, long-term variation of ENSO, and increasing the predictive skill of ENSO and its related climate variations.

  2. Satellites reveals the biophysical effects of forest cover change on climate at diurnal, seasonal and inter-annual time scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duveiller, Gregory; Alkama, Ramdane; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2017-04-01

    Changing the planet's forest cover can have a profound impact of the climate system by altering its role as a carbon sink. However, deforestation and afforestation also changes the biophysical properties of the surface such as albedo, roughness and root depth, thus altering the energy balance and the resulting surface and air temperature. The result of these competing biophysical processes varies spatially and seasonally, and can lead to either warming or cooling depending on which process dominates. The main tools to characterize such plant-climate interactions for both the past and future are land surface models embedded in larger Earth System models, yet their capacity to model biophysical effects accurately across the globe remains unclear due to the complexity of the phenomena. Alternatively, with appropriate methodologies, the climate impacts of the biophysical effects of forest cover change can be derived from space by satellite measurements of surface temperature and energy fluxes. Here we present the confrontation of two dedicated assessments that have been specifically generated for this scope with contrasting methodologies. The first is based on identifying an actual change in the local climate following an observed forest cover transition. Although it directly measures the desired effect, this method can only be applied to the places where vegetation change has effectively occurred. The second method relies on a 'space-for-time' approximation that identifies the potential impact of a plant cover transition from differences in climate amongst neighboring areas with contrasting vegetation. We show how both approaches reinforce and complement each other to provide a consolidated result across diurnal, seasonal and inter-annual time scales. We anticipate that these evidences derived from satellite records may support the benchmarking and development of Earth system models and support the inclusion of vegetation-driven biophysical processes in climate

  3. Groundwater level response in U.S. Principal Aquifers to natural climate variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velasco, E.; Gurdak, J. J.; Dickinson, J.; Hanson, R. T.; Ferré, T. P. A.; Maurer, E. P.

    2014-12-01

    Natural climate variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales are important controls on precipitation, drought, evapotranspiration, streamflow, and groundwater recharge. Climate variability can also augment or diminish human stresses on water resources. Thus, understanding climate variability has particular relevance for groundwater management. Findings will be presented from a national scale study of groundwater level response to natural climate variability in principal aquifers (PAs) of the U.S., including the California Coastal Basin, Rio Grande, Coastal Lowlands, Mississippi Embayment, Floridan, and Glacial aquifer systems. We use the U.S. Geological Survey hydroclimatic analysis toolkit HydroClimATe to perform singular spectrum analysis and identify quasi-periodic signals in precipitation and groundwater time series that are coincident with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) (6-12 mo cycle), Pacific/North American oscillation (PNA) (<1-4 yr cycle), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2-7 yr cycle), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (3-6 yr cycle), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (15-30 yr cycle), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (50-70 yr cycle). Nearly all of the quasi-periodic signals in the precipitation and groundwater levels have a statistically significant lag correlation (95% confidence interval) with the AO, PNA, ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AMO indices. The largest amount of variance in precipitation and groundwater levels was attributed to the PDO, accounting for more than 90% of the variance in many PAs. The next largest amount of variance in precipitation and groundwater levels was attributed to ENSO, accounting for more than 50% of the variance in many PAs. The AMO was the least frequently detected signal in all time series but accounted for as much as 95% of the variance when detected. Thus, climate variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales has a statistically significant and measurable effect on the lagged responses of

  4. Interannual variations in spring phenology and their response to climate change across the Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Lingling; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Donnelly, Alison; Liu, Xinjie

    2016-10-01

    Land surface phenology has been widely used to evaluate the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems in recent decades. Climate warming on the Tibetan Plateau (1960-2010, 0.2 °C/decade) has been found to be greater than the global average (1951-2012, 0.12 °C/decade), which has had a significant impact on the timing of spring greenup. However, the magnitude and direction of change in spring phenology and its response to warming temperature and precipitation are currently under scientific debate. In an attempt to explore this issue further, we detected the onset of greenup based on the time series of daily two-band enhanced vegetation index (EVI2) from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) long-term data record (LTDR; 1982-1999) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Climate Modeling Grid (CMG; 2000-2013) using hybrid piecewise logistic models. Further, we examined the temporal trend in greenup onset in both individual pixels and ecoregions across the entire Tibetan Plateau over the following periods: 1982-1999, 2000-2013, and 1982-2013. The interannual variation in greenup onset was linked to the mean temperature and cumulative precipitation in the preceding month, and total precipitation during winter and spring, respectively. Finally, we investigated the relationship between interannual variation in greenup onset dates and temperature and precipitation from 1982 to 2013 at different elevational zones for different ecoregions. The results revealed no significant trend in the onset of greenup from 1982 to 2013 in more than 86 % of the Tibetan Plateau. For each study period, statistically significant earlier greenup trends were observed mainly in the eastern meadow regions while later greenup trends mainly occurred in the southwestern steppe and meadow regions both with areal coverage of less than 8 %. Although spring phenology was negatively correlated with spring temperature and precipitation in the majority of pixels

  5. Interannual variations in spring phenology and their response to climate change across the Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2013.

    PubMed

    Liu, Lingling; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Donnelly, Alison; Liu, Xinjie

    2016-10-01

    Land surface phenology has been widely used to evaluate the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems in recent decades. Climate warming on the Tibetan Plateau (1960-2010, 0.2 °C/decade) has been found to be greater than the global average (1951-2012, 0.12 °C/decade), which has had a significant impact on the timing of spring greenup. However, the magnitude and direction of change in spring phenology and its response to warming temperature and precipitation are currently under scientific debate. In an attempt to explore this issue further, we detected the onset of greenup based on the time series of daily two-band enhanced vegetation index (EVI2) from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) long-term data record (LTDR; 1982-1999) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Climate Modeling Grid (CMG; 2000-2013) using hybrid piecewise logistic models. Further, we examined the temporal trend in greenup onset in both individual pixels and ecoregions across the entire Tibetan Plateau over the following periods: 1982-1999, 2000-2013, and 1982-2013. The interannual variation in greenup onset was linked to the mean temperature and cumulative precipitation in the preceding month, and total precipitation during winter and spring, respectively. Finally, we investigated the relationship between interannual variation in greenup onset dates and temperature and precipitation from 1982 to 2013 at different elevational zones for different ecoregions. The results revealed no significant trend in the onset of greenup from 1982 to 2013 in more than 86 % of the Tibetan Plateau. For each study period, statistically significant earlier greenup trends were observed mainly in the eastern meadow regions while later greenup trends mainly occurred in the southwestern steppe and meadow regions both with areal coverage of less than 8 %. Although spring phenology was negatively correlated with spring temperature and precipitation in the majority of

  6. Interannual to decadal climate variability of sea salt aerosols in the coupled climate model CESM1.0: Climate variability of sea salt aerosols

    SciTech Connect

    Xu, Li; Pierce, David W.; Russell, Lynn M.; Miller, Arthur J.; Somerville, Richard C. J.; Twohy, Cynthia H.; Ghan, Steven J.; Singh, Balwinder; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Rasch, Philip J.

    2015-02-21

    This study examines multi-year climate variability associated with sea salt aerosols and their contribution to the variability of shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF) using a 150-year simulation for pre-industrial conditions of the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). The results suggest that changes in sea salt and related cloud and radiative properties on interannual timescales are dominated by the ENSO cycle. Sea salt variability on longer (interdecadal) timescales is associated with low-frequency Pacific ocean variability similar to the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), but does not show a statistically significant spectral peak. A multivariate regression suggests that sea salt aerosol variability may contribute to SWCF variability in the tropical Pacific, explaining up to 25-35% of the variance in that region. Elsewhere, there is only a small aerosol influence on SWCF through modifying cloud droplet number and liquid water path that contributes to the change of cloud effective radius and cloud optical depth (and hence cloud albedo), producing a multi-year aerosol-cloud-wind interaction.

  7. Impacts of climate change and inter-annual variability on cereal crops in China from 1980 to 2008.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Tianyi; Huang, Yao

    2012-06-01

    Negative climate impacts on crop yield increase pressures on food security in China. In this study, climatic impacts on cereal yields (rice, wheat and maize) were investigated by analyzing climate-yield relationships from 1980 to 2008. Results indicated that warming was significant, but trends in precipitation and solar radiation were not statistically significant in most of China. In general, maize is particularly sensitive to warming. However, increase in temperature was correlated with both lower and higher yield of rice and wheat, which is inconsistent with the current view that warming results in decline in yields. Of the three cereal crops, further analysis suggested that reduction in yields with higher temperature is accompanied by lower precipitation, which mainly occurred in northern parts of China, suggesting droughts reduced yield due to lack of water resources. Similarly, a positive correlation between temperature and yield can be alternatively explained by the effect of solar radiation, mainly in the southern part of China where water resources are abundant. Overall, our study suggests that it is inter-annual variations in precipitation and solar radiation that have driven change in cereal yields in China over the last three decades. Copyright © 2011 Society of Chemical Industry.

  8. The sensitivity of wood production to seasonal and interannual variations in climate in a lowland Amazonian rainforest.

    PubMed

    Rowland, Lucy; Malhi, Y; Silva-Espejo, J E; Farfán-Amézquita, F; Halladay, K; Doughty, C E; Meir, P; Phillips, O L

    2014-01-01

    Understanding climatic controls on tropical forest productivity is key to developing more reliable models for predicting how tropical biomes may respond to climate change. Currently there is no consensus on which factors control seasonal changes in tropical forest tree growth. This study reports the first comprehensive plot-level description of the seasonality of growth in a Peruvian tropical forest. We test whether seasonal and interannual variations in climate are correlated with changes in biomass increment, and whether such relationships differ among trees with different functional traits. We found that biomass increments, measured every 3 months on the two plots, were reduced by between 40 and 55% in the peak dry season (July-September) relative to peak wet season (January-March). The seasonal patterns of biomass accumulation are significantly (p < 0.01) associated with seasonal patterns of rainfall and soil water content; however, this may reflect a synchrony of seasonal cycles rather than direct physiological controls on tree growth rates. The strength of the growth seasonality response among trees is significantly correlated to functional traits: consistent with a hypothesised trade-off between maximum potential growth rate and hydraulic safety, tall and fast-growing trees with broad stems had the most strongly seasonal biomass accumulation, suggesting that they are more productive in the wet season, but more vulnerable to water limitation in the dry season.

  9. Interannual abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton unveil climate-driven hydrographic variations in the Iberian Peninsula, Portugal.

    PubMed

    D'Ambrosio, Mariaelena; Molinero, Juan C; Azeiteiro, Ulisses M; Pardal, Miguel A; Primo, Ana L; Nyitrai, Daniel; Marques, Sónia C

    2016-09-01

    The persistent massive blooms of gelatinous zooplankton recorded during recent decades may be indicative of marine ecosystem changes. In this study, we investigated the potential influence of the North Atlantic climate (NAO) variability on decadal abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary, Portugal, over the period 2003-2013. During the 11-year study, the community of gelatinous carnivores encompassed a larger diversity of hydromedusae than siphonophores; the former dominated by Obelia spp., Lizzia blondina, Clythia hemisphaerica, Liriope tetraphylla and Solmaris corona, while the latter dominated by Muggiaea atlantica. Gelatinous carnivore zooplankton displayed marked interannual variability and mounting species richness over the period examined. Their pattern of abundance shifted towards larger abundances ca. 2007 and significant phenological changes. The latter included a shift in the mean annual pattern (from unimodal to bimodal peak, prior and after 2007 respectively) and an earlier timing of the first annual peak concurrent with enhanced temperatures. These changes were concurrent with the climate-driven environmental variability mainly controlled by the NAO, which displayed larger variance after 2007 along with an enhanced upwelling activity. Structural equation modelling allowed depicting cascading effects derived from the NAO influence on regional climate and upwelling variability further shaping water temperature. Such cascading effect percolated the structure and dynamics of the community of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary.

  10. Linking diurnal cycles of river flow to interannual variations in climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lundquist, Jessica D.; Dettinger, Michael D.

    2003-01-01

    Many rivers in the Western United States have diurnal variations exceeding 10% of their mean flow in the spring and summer months. The shape and timing of the diurnal cycle is influenced by an interplay of the snow, topography, vegetation, and meteorology in a basin, and the measured result differs between wet and dry years. The largest interannual differences occur during the latter half of the melt season, as the snowline retreats to the highest elevations and most shaded slopes in a basin. In most basins, during this period, the hour of peak discharge shifts to later in the day, and the relative amplitude of the diurnal cycle decreases. The magnitude and rate of these changes in the diurnal cycle vary between years and may provide clues about how long- term hydroclimatic variations affect short-term basin dynamics.

  11. Spectral Kernel Approach to Study Radiative Response of Climate Variables and Interannual Variability of Reflected Solar Spectrum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jin, Zhonghai; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Loukachine, Constantin; Charlock, Thomas P.; Young, David; Noeel, Stefan

    2011-01-01

    The radiative kernel approach provides a simple way to separate the radiative response to different climate parameters and to decompose the feedback into radiative and climate response components. Using CERES/MODIS/Geostationary data, we calculated and analyzed the solar spectral reflectance kernels for various climate parameters on zonal, regional, and global spatial scales. The kernel linearity is tested. Errors in the kernel due to nonlinearity can vary strongly depending on climate parameter, wavelength, surface, and solar elevation; they are large in some absorption bands for some parameters but are negligible in most conditions. The spectral kernels are used to calculate the radiative responses to different climate parameter changes in different latitudes. The results show that the radiative response in high latitudes is sensitive to the coverage of snow and sea ice. The radiative response in low latitudes is contributed mainly by cloud property changes, especially cloud fraction and optical depth. The large cloud height effect is confined to absorption bands, while the cloud particle size effect is found mainly in the near infrared. The kernel approach, which is based on calculations using CERES retrievals, is then tested by direct comparison with spectral measurements from Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY) (a different instrument on a different spacecraft). The monthly mean interannual variability of spectral reflectance based on the kernel technique is consistent with satellite observations over the ocean, but not over land, where both model and data have large uncertainty. RMS errors in kernel ]derived monthly global mean reflectance over the ocean compared to observations are about 0.001, and the sampling error is likely a major component.

  12. Spectral Kernel Approach to Study Radiative Response of Climate Variables and Interannual Variability of Reflected Solar Spectrum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jin, Zhonghai; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Loukachine, Constantin; Charlock, Thomas P.; Young, David; Noeel, Stefan

    2011-01-01

    The radiative kernel approach provides a simple way to separate the radiative response to different climate parameters and to decompose the feedback into radiative and climate response components. Using CERES/MODIS/Geostationary data, we calculated and analyzed the solar spectral reflectance kernels for various climate parameters on zonal, regional, and global spatial scales. The kernel linearity is tested. Errors in the kernel due to nonlinearity can vary strongly depending on climate parameter, wavelength, surface, and solar elevation; they are large in some absorption bands for some parameters but are negligible in most conditions. The spectral kernels are used to calculate the radiative responses to different climate parameter changes in different latitudes. The results show that the radiative response in high latitudes is sensitive to the coverage of snow and sea ice. The radiative response in low latitudes is contributed mainly by cloud property changes, especially cloud fraction and optical depth. The large cloud height effect is confined to absorption bands, while the cloud particle size effect is found mainly in the near infrared. The kernel approach, which is based on calculations using CERES retrievals, is then tested by direct comparison with spectral measurements from Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY) (a different instrument on a different spacecraft). The monthly mean interannual variability of spectral reflectance based on the kernel technique is consistent with satellite observations over the ocean, but not over land, where both model and data have large uncertainty. RMS errors in kernel ]derived monthly global mean reflectance over the ocean compared to observations are about 0.001, and the sampling error is likely a major component.

  13. Climate co-variability between South America and Southern Africa at interannual, intraseasonal and synoptic scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Puaud, Yohan; Pohl, Benjamin; Fauchereau, Nicolas; Macron, Clémence; Beltrando, Gérard

    2017-06-01

    This paper investigates and quantifies co-variability between large-scale convection in the South American and Southern African sectors at different timescales (interannual, intraseasonal and synoptic), during the austral summer seasons (November-February) from 1979 to 2012. Multivariate analyses (Canonical Correlation Analysis and Principal Component Analysis) are applied to daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR, used as a proxy for atmospheric convection) anomalies to extract the principal modes of variability and co-variability in each and between both regions, filtered to consider the appropriate time-scales. At the interannual timescale, results confirm the predominant role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), favoring enhanced convection over both southeastern Brazil and northern Argentina on the one hand, and tropical Africa and the western Indian Ocean on the other hand. At the intraseasonal timescale, the leading mode of co-variability is related to modulations of large-scale atmospheric convection over most of South America, and 10 days later, tropical Southern Africa. This mode accounts for the impacts of the Madden-Julian-oscillation (MJO) over these regions: identifying robust co-variability at the intraseasonal timescale between both regions require thus to consider a temporal shift between the two sectors. At the synoptic scale, however, co-variability consists mostly of a synchronous modulation of the large-scale atmospheric convection over the South American and Southern African sectors. This results from the development of concomitant Rossby waves forming a continuous wave train over the South Atlantic in the mid-latitudes, affecting both the South Atlantic and South Indian Convergence Zones. Among the days when convection shows significant anomalies (30 % of the total days in each sector), this synchronous mode occurs about 25 % of the time, individual Rossby waves modulating convection over one single region only during the remaining 75

  14. Climate co-variability between South America and Southern Africa at interannual, intraseasonal and synoptic scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Puaud, Yohan; Pohl, Benjamin; Fauchereau, Nicolas; Macron, Clémence; Beltrando, Gérard

    2016-08-01

    This paper investigates and quantifies co-variability between large-scale convection in the South American and Southern African sectors at different timescales (interannual, intraseasonal and synoptic), during the austral summer seasons (November-February) from 1979 to 2012. Multivariate analyses (Canonical Correlation Analysis and Principal Component Analysis) are applied to daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR, used as a proxy for atmospheric convection) anomalies to extract the principal modes of variability and co-variability in each and between both regions, filtered to consider the appropriate time-scales. At the interannual timescale, results confirm the predominant role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), favoring enhanced convection over both southeastern Brazil and northern Argentina on the one hand, and tropical Africa and the western Indian Ocean on the other hand. At the intraseasonal timescale, the leading mode of co-variability is related to modulations of large-scale atmospheric convection over most of South America, and 10 days later, tropical Southern Africa. This mode accounts for the impacts of the Madden-Julian-oscillation (MJO) over these regions: identifying robust co-variability at the intraseasonal timescale between both regions require thus to consider a temporal shift between the two sectors. At the synoptic scale, however, co-variability consists mostly of a synchronous modulation of the large-scale atmospheric convection over the South American and Southern African sectors. This results from the development of concomitant Rossby waves forming a continuous wave train over the South Atlantic in the mid-latitudes, affecting both the South Atlantic and South Indian Convergence Zones. Among the days when convection shows significant anomalies (30 % of the total days in each sector), this synchronous mode occurs about 25 % of the time, individual Rossby waves modulating convection over one single region only during the remaining 75

  15. Impact of inter-annual climatic variability on ecosystem carbon exchange in two grazed temperate grasslands with contrasting drainage regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choncubhair, Órlaith Ní; Humphreys, James; Lanigan, Gary

    2014-05-01

    Temperate grasslands constitute over 30% of the Earth's naturally-occurring biomes and make an important contribution towards the partial mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by terrestrial ecosystems. Accumulation of carbon (C) in grassland systems predominantly takes place in below-ground repositories, enhanced by the presence of a stable soil environment with low carbon turnover rates, active rhizodeposition and high levels of residue and organic inputs. Predicted future warming is expected to increase productivity in temperate zones, thereby enhancing rates of terrestrial carbon sequestration. However, the susceptibility of many ecosystems, including grasslands, to extreme climatic events and inter-annual variability has been demonstrated previously. Temperature anomalies as well as modifications in the temporal pattern and quantity of precipitation alter the balance between carbon uptake and release processes and a mechanistic understanding of ecosystem response to such changes is still lacking. In the present study, the impact of extreme inter-annual variability in summer rainfall and temperature on carbon dynamics in two rotationally-grazed grasslands in Ireland was examined. The sites experience similar temperate climatic regimes but differ in soil drainage characteristics. Eddy covariance measurements of net ecosystem exchange of carbon were complemented by regular assessment of standing biomass, leaf cover, harvest exports and organic amendment inputs. The summers of 2012 and 2013 showed contrasting climatic conditions, with summer precipitation 93% higher and 25% lower respectively than long-term means. In addition, soil temperatures were 7% lower and 11% higher than expected. Cool, wet conditions in 2012 facilitated net carbon uptake for more than ten months of the year at the poorly-drained site, however the ecosystem switched to a net source of carbon in 2013 during months with significantly reduced rainfall. In contrast, net C

  16. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange of a temperate mountain grassland: effects of climate and management

    PubMed Central

    Wohlfahrt, Georg; Hammerle, Albin; Haslwanter, Alois; Bahn, Michael; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Cernusca, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    The role and relative importance of climate and cutting for the seasonal and inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 (NEE) of a temperate mountain grassland was investigated. Eddy covariance CO2 flux data and associated measurements of the green area index and the major environmental driving forces acquired during 2001-2006 at the study site Neustift (Austria) were analyzed. Driven by three cutting events per year which kept the investigated grassland in a stage of vigorous growth, the seasonal variability of NEE was primarily modulated by gross primary productivity (GPP). The role of environmental parameters in modulating the seasonal variability of NEE was obscured by the strong response of GPP to changes in the amount of green area, as well as the cutting-mediated decoupling of phenological development and the seasonal course of climate drivers. None of the climate and management metrics examined was able to explain the inter-annual variability of annual NEE. This is thought to result from (1) a high covariance between GPP and ecosystem respiration (Reco) at the annual time scale which results in a comparatively small inter-annual variation of NEE, (2) compensating effects between carbon exchange during and outside the management period, and (3) changes in the biotic response to rather than the climate variables per se. GPP was more important in modulating inter-annual variations in NEE in spring and before the first and second cut, while Reco explained a larger fraction of the inter-annual variability of NEE during the remaining, in particular the post-cut, periods. PMID:24383047

  17. Interannual Variability of the Annual Cycle of Monsoon Rainfall and Projections of Future Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sperber, K. R.; Annamalai, H.

    2016-12-01

    Based on the skill of the CMIP5 models in simulating the annual cycle of rainfall, subsets of models are used to evaluate rainfall projections in the late 21st Century using the CMIP5 RCP8.5 simulations. Relative to the Historical simulations, changes to the frequency distribution of interannual anomalies of rainfall, onset, withdrawal, and duration have been evaluated. Rainfall is projected to increase by 9-11% over India, the Sahel, and northern Australia, and decrease over the American monsoon domains by 4-8%. The signals over India and the North American monsoon are robust, with ≥80% of the models agreeing on the sign of the change. Using Historical simulation thresholds for three equally probable categories, the RCP8.5 changes in precipitation amount have probabilities of 0.5-0.8, indicating substantial changes to the frequency of years with below-normal and above-normal precipitation. The delay in onset time is the primary driver of changes in the duration of the monsoon season. The sensitivity of the results to model subselection and model independence are also explored.

  18. Fluorscence signatures of dissolved organic material in an alpine lake ecosystem: responses to interannual climate variation and nutrient cycling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McKnight, Diane; Olivier, Matt; Hell, Katherina

    2016-04-01

    During snowmelt alpine lakes receive lower concentrations of dissolved organic material (DOM) that originates from the surrounding watershed than sub-alpine and montane lakes at lower elevations. Alpine lakes also have a shorter ice-free period that constrains the summer season of phytoplankton growth. Nonetheless, previous study of the reactive transport and production of DOM in an alpine lake in the Colorado Front Range during snowmelt and the summer ice-free season has shown that changes in DOM sources and the influence of biogeochemical processes can be resolved using fluorescence spectroscopy. Here we examine inter-annual variations in DOM fluorescence signatures during the snowmelt and summer periods in comparison to records of climate, residence time and primary production in the lake during the summer. Our analysis shows that variation in chlorophyll a concentration is a driver for variations in the fluorescence index (FI), as well as for specific ultra-violet absorbance. This result supports the predictions from the previous reactive transport modeling. We also conducted mesocosm experiments with nutrient enrichment to explore the role of nitrogen and phosphorus availability in influencing the fluorescence signature of DOM in summer. These results suggest that monitoring of simple spectroscopic properties of DOM can provide a means to track the biogeochemical consequences for alpine lakes of "too much" summer as climate continues to change.

  19. Regionally synchronous fires in interior British Columbia, Canada, driven by interannual climate variability and weakly associated with large-scale climate patterns between AD 1600-1900

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harvey, J. E.; Smith, D. J.

    2016-12-01

    We investigated the influence of climate variability on forest fire occurrence in west central British Columbia (BC), Canada, between AD 1600 and 1900. Fire history was reconstructed at 8 sites in the Cariboo-Chilcotin region and we identified 46 local (fires that affected 1 site) and 16 moderate (fires that affected 2 sites) fires. Preexisting fire history data collected from nearby sites was incorporated to identify 17 regionally synchronous fire years (fires that affected ³ 3 sites). Interannual and multidecadal relationships between fire occurrence and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern were examined, in addition to the effects of phase interactions between ENSO and PDO. We examined multiple reconstructions of PDO and ENSO and utilized three methodological approaches to characterize climate-fire relationships. We found that the influence of interannual climate expressed as PDSI, increasingly synchronized the occurrence of of fires from local to regional fires. Regional fires were associated with anomalously dry, warm conditions in the year of the fire and in years preceding the fire. We also identified an association between local fires and antecedent moisture conditions, where wetter and cooler conditions persisted 2-3 years prior to fire. This finding suggests that moisture-driven fine fuel development and proximity to grasslands could function as key determinants of local (small-scale) fire history parameters. The relationships we identified between regional fires and ENSO, PDO and PNA suggest that large-scale patterns of climate variability exert a weak and/or inconsistent influence over fire activity in west central BC between AD 1600-1900. The strongest relationships between regional fires and large-scale climate patterns were identified when ENSO and PDO were both in positive phases. We also documented a relationship between

  20. The Role of Lightning in Controlling Interannual Variability of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone and OH and its Implications for Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murray, Lee T.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Hudman, Rynda C.; Koshak, William J.

    2012-01-01

    Nitrogen oxides (NO(x) = NO + NO2) produced by lightning make a major contribution to the production of the dominant tropospheric oxidants (OH and ozone). These oxidants control the lifetime of many trace gases including long-lived greenhouse gases, and control the source-receptor relationship of inter-hemispheric pollutant transport. Lightning is affected by meteorological variability, and therefore represents a potentially important tropospheric chemistry-climate feedback. Understanding how interannual variability (IAV) in lightning affects IAV in ozone and OH in the recent past is important if we are to predict how oxidant levels may change in a future warmer climate. However, lightning parameterizations for chemical transport models (CTMs) show low skill in reproducing even climatological distributions of flash rates from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) satellite instruments. We present an optimized regional scaling algorithm for CTMs that enables sufficient sampling of spatiotemporally sparse satellite lightning data from LIS to constrain the spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability of tropical lightning. We construct a monthly time series of lightning flash rates for 1998-2010 and 35degS-35degN, and find a correlation of IAV in total tropical lightning with El Nino. We use the IAV-constraint to drive a 9-year hindcast (1998-2006) of the GEOS-Chem 3D chemical transport model, and find the increased IAV in LNO(x) drives increased IAV in ozone and OH, improving the model fs ability to simulate both. Although lightning contributes more than any other emission source to IAV in ozone, we find ozone more sensitive to meteorology, particularly convective transport. However, we find IAV in OH to be highly sensitive to lightning NO(x), and the constraint improves the ability of the model to capture the temporal behavior of OH anomalies inferred from observations of methyl chloroform and other gases. The sensitivity of

  1. Diversity of precipitation characteristics in contiguous United States: climatology, interannual variation, and change in the warming climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Chen; Chang, Won; Kong, Wenwen; Wang, Jiali; Rao Kotamarthi, V.; Stein, Michael L.; Moyer, Elisabeth J.

    2017-04-01

    Individual precipitation events induce different levels of hydrological impacts given their diverse characteristics, not only in precipitation amount but also in precipitation rate, duration, and size. It thus calls for an understanding of the diversity in precipitation characteristics and its influence on the total precipitation in contiguous United States. The framework we use to look into the precipitation diversity includes three steps: 1. we analyze the precipitation in observations (StageIV, 4kmx4km, 1h) and regional climate models (CCSM4-WRF downscaling,12kmx12km, 3h), in which the high spatio-temporal resolution enables us to "see" individual precipitation events. 2. switching from the Eulerian to Lagrangian perspective, we track individual rainstorms using Chang et al. (2016), in which algorithm both small and big events are identified to ensure the full spectrum diversity. 3. we use a set of metrics to characterize varying aspects of diversity and decompose their contributions to the total precipitation in CONUS. We also measure the variation and change in event frequency. The overall understandings are the following: 1. as to the climatology, though certain rainstorms with longer duration or larger size have better abilities to produce precipitation, the scarcity limits their overall contributions to the seasonal precipitation in CONUS. 2. as to the interannual variation, for a wetter year when the total precipitation is larger than normal and events are more frequent, the averaged rainstorm size is larger though the intensified precipitation rate shortens the rainstorm duration. 3. as to the change in a warming climate (as in Chang et al. 2016), CCSM4-WRF projection under RCP8.5 scenario suggests that, along with the increasing precipitation amount and intensity, the averaged rainstorm duration become longer but the size becomes overall smaller. The total number of events does not change much. 4. different relations governing the interannual variation

  2. Assessing Interannual Variation in Growth Response of Big Sagebrush to Climate in Spring Valley, NV

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Apodaca, L. F.; Devitt, D.; Fenstermaker, L.

    2012-12-01

    An assessment of the growth response of key vegetative species to climatic variability is vital to understanding possible impacts on ecosystems threatened by impending hydrologic change. Big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) communities in Spring Valley, NV are predicted to experience changes in water availability brought about by climate change that could result in widespread shifts in community composition, ecotonal boundaries, and plant phenology. The degree and direction of the growth response of sagebrush species to these changes is of great interest to land managers as a decline in growth and plant vigor has implications on the long-term trajectories for community biodiversity and wildfire management practices. To evaluate growth response to past climate variability, an empirical relationship between sagebrush growth ring indices and satellite-derived vegetation indices (NDVI) was examined in the context of historical precipitation. Ring indices were constructed using over one hundred stem cross-sections sampled from thirty-six sagebrush stands located throughout the large, spatially heterogenous 900 km2 Spring Valley study area. Growing season NDVI values were extracted from Landsat scenes collected between 1986 and 2010. Sagebrush early and late wood indices were also compared to seasonal precipitation records in order to examine both the progression of wood development throughout the growing season and the seasonal contribution of spring and summer precipitation to wood growth. The results will allow for a more comprehensive assessment of past vegetative response to climate variation, both temporally and spatially, which can be used in the modeling of growth of an important desert species.

  3. Climatic Effects on the Inter-Annual Variability of Carbon Fluxes for North America and Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tomelleri, E.; Carvalhais, N.; Migliavacca, M.; Reichstein, M.; Fluxnet Lathuille Synthesis Team (Cf. Www. Fluxdata. Org)

    2010-12-01

    The connection between climate variability and global carbon cycle has already been shown to be linked with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (1). A positive phase of the NAO is associated with more and stronger winter storms crossing the North Atlantic on a more northerly route, causing major anomalies in sea surface temperature, currents and convective activity throughout the North Atlantic. A long-term trend towards very positive values has culminated in the early 1990s, and since then a decreasing trend is happening (1). Identification of the climatic drivers of the net ecosystem fluxes is becoming a rising issue. In particular the effects of year-to-year climate variability on regional budgets and the understanding of the underlying biogeochemical processes are of fundamental importance due to the intensification of extreme climatic events like precipitation (2) and drought events (3). We identified the relations between climatic variability (i.e. NAO) and the regional carbon budgets of North America and Europe over the period from 1989 to 2008. In doing this we kept special focus both on temporal and spatial scale. For this purpose we took advantage of the high-density of FLUXNET measurement sites in these areas. We applied a radiation use efficiency model for gross primary production (4) combined with a semi-empirical total ecosystem respiration model (5). As drivers for the model we used climatic and fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) records. We utilized in-situ calibrated model parameters to estimate the regional ecosystem carbon fluxes. The model was spatially applied according to the similarity in the climatic-phenological space of each grid pixel with the measurement site to which it was calibrated (e.g., 6). We found that for Europe NAO could explain NEE variability in a reasonable way for northern and southern Europe, but for the mid-latitude region this was not the case. For North America the patterns were less clear

  4. Monitoring climate-driven interannual variability of European Larch phenology in an alpine environment: results of the REPHLEX project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Busetto, L.; Migliavacca, M.; Cremonese, E.; Colombo, R.; Galvagno, M.; Morra di Cella, U.; Pari, E.; Siniscalco, C.

    2009-04-01

    In this contribute we present the results of the REPHLEX experiment (REmote sensing of PHenology Larix Experiment), conducted by the Environmental Dynamics Remote Sensing Laboratory of the University of Milano-Bicocca, by the Regional Protection Agency of the Aosta Valley and by Vegetation Biology Department of the University of Torino. The project was aimed at developing appropriate techniques for monitoring the interannual variability of European Larch (Larix decidua Mill.) phenological cycle in the Alpine region of Valle d'Aosta (Northern Italy), and to evaluate its relationships with environmental and climatic drivers. This was achieved by combining field observations, phenological models and satellite remote sensing. Phenological field observations were weekly conducted in 8 test sites during 2005, 2006 and 2007 in order to determine the dates of completion of different phenological phases of the analyzed Larch stands. MODIS 250 16-days composite NDVI data (Product MOD13Q1 - v005) acquired from TERRA platform for the 2000-2007 time period were used to estimate budburst and senescence dates, as well as the length of the growing season. With this aim, NDVI time series were fitted with a double logistic curve, and the dates corresponding to different characteristic points of the curve (maximum of the first derivative and zeroes of the third and fourth derivative) were determined. The comparison between MODIS estimated dates and field data showed that the points of the fitted NDVI curve that allow to better estimate larch phenological dates are the zeroes of its third derivative, which allowed to estimate the start and the end of the growing season with Mean Absolute Errors (MAE) of about 6 and 4 days, respectively. This result is particularly significant since to our knowledge these inflection points have never been used for the estimation of phenological dates in previous studies. Start and end of season were also estimated by applying the Spring Warming and the

  5. Influence of Global Climate Indices and Inter-annual Wind Speed Variability in the UAE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naizghi, M. S.; Ouarda, T.

    2016-12-01

    Wind is becoming one of the world's most favourable source of sustainable energy. Its stochastic nature, however, is a challenge to fully exploit its potential. To overcome this limitation, a number of studies focusing on modelling the character of wind were conducted but few explored the effect of large-scale climatological factors on wind distribution and variation. The present study aims to: first, examine the variability and change points in wind speed time series data. Second, identify the teleconnections between the wind speed and climate indices by applying wavelet coherence analysis. Third, develop multiple linear regression models to represent wind speed as a function of climate indices. The study is carried out using wind speed data collected from six ground stations in the UAE and a reanalysis gridded dataset. Continuous wavelet analysis on the wind speed indicated annual periodicity in all stations and biannual in three. Trend analysis using Modified Mann-Kendall test and linear regression showed that half of the stations have a significant trend at the 5% level. Cumulative sum and Bayesian change detection analysis revealed all stations, except one, exhibited change points with statistical significance level of 5%. Wavelet coherence analysis demonstrated that wind speed in the UAE is mainly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic Oscillation (EAO), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). NAO and EAO simultaneously modulate wind speed in the summer while ENSO and IOD influence winter and autumn wind speeds. Step-wise multiple linear regression models developed to select appropriate predictors among the various climate indices resulted in limited success. Further work on predictive models using non-linear models and generalized additive model are being explored. Keywords: Climate indices, teleconnections, wavelet analysis, wind speed variability, trend analysis, change point, UAE.

  6. Climate variability and oceanographic settings associated with interannual variability in the initiation of Dinophysis acuminata blooms.

    PubMed

    Díaz, Patricio A; Reguera, Beatriz; Ruiz-Villarreal, Manuel; Pazos, Yolanda; Velo-Suárez, Lourdes; Berger, Henrick; Sourisseau, Marc

    2013-08-16

    In 2012, there were exceptional blooms of D. acuminata in early spring in what appeared to be a mesoscale event affecting Western Iberia and the Bay of Biscay. The objective of this work was to identify common climatic patterns to explain the observed anomalies in two important aquaculture sites, the Galician Rías Baixas (NW Spain) and Arcachon Bay (SW France). Here, we examine climate variability through physical-biological couplings, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies and time of initiation of the upwelling season and its intensity over several decades. In 2012, the mesoscale features common to the two sites were positive anomalies in SST and unusual wind patterns. These led to an atypical predominance of upwelling in winter in the Galician Rías, and increased haline stratification associated with a southward advection of the Gironde plume in Arcachon Bay. Both scenarios promoted an early phytoplankton growth season and increased stability that enhanced D. acuminata growth. Therefore, a common climate anomaly caused exceptional blooms of D. acuminata in two distant regions through different triggering mechanisms. These results increase our capability to predict intense diarrhetic shellfish poisoning outbreaks in the early spring from observations in the preceding winter.

  7. Effects of interannual climate variation on aboveground phytomass in alpine vegetation

    SciTech Connect

    Walker, M.D.; Webber, P.J.; Arnold, E.H. ); Ebert-May, D. )

    1994-03-01

    Relationships between peak annual vascular aboveground phytomass and annual climate variation in alpine plant communities located on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, were analyzed using path analysis. The five community types, fellfield, dry meadow, moist meadow, wet meadow, and snowbed, represent a snow depth-soil moisture gradient and broadly represent the most common vegetation types on east-facing slopes of the Front Range alpine zone. using nine successive years of data, this is the first longer term analysis of alpine phytomass and climate and one of the longest nonagricultural production records available. Live phytomass ranged from 97 g/m[sup 2] (snowbed) to 237 g/m[sup 2] (fellfield). Among-community differences in phytomass were greater than differences among years, but there was a significant phytomass variation among years. Path analysis indicated that climate accounted for 15-40% of the variation in phytomass. The dry communities, fellfield (exposed rocky summit areas dominated by cushion and mat plants) and dry meadow, were most sensitive to previous year precipitation, the moist and wet meadow communities were most sensitive to current growing season soil moisture, and the snowbed community was most sensitive to date of snow release. Because of the relatively high amount of variation attributable to variables related to precipitation, changes in precipitation regimes that may occur in alpine ecosystems will likely result in changes in phytomass that are detectable with clip-harvest methods. 62 refs., 2 figs., 6 tabs.

  8. Climate Variability and Oceanographic Settings Associated with Interannual Variability in the Initiation of Dinophysis acuminata Blooms

    PubMed Central

    Díaz, Patricio A.; Reguera, Beatriz; Ruiz-Villarreal, Manuel; Pazos, Yolanda; Velo-Suárez, Lourdes; Berger, Henrick; Sourisseau, Marc

    2013-01-01

    In 2012, there were exceptional blooms of D. acuminata in early spring in what appeared to be a mesoscale event affecting Western Iberia and the Bay of Biscay. The objective of this work was to identify common climatic patterns to explain the observed anomalies in two important aquaculture sites, the Galician Rías Baixas (NW Spain) and Arcachon Bay (SW France). Here, we examine climate variability through physical-biological couplings, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies and time of initiation of the upwelling season and its intensity over several decades. In 2012, the mesoscale features common to the two sites were positive anomalies in SST and unusual wind patterns. These led to an atypical predominance of upwelling in winter in the Galician Rías, and increased haline stratification associated with a southward advection of the Gironde plume in Arcachon Bay. Both scenarios promoted an early phytoplankton growth season and increased stability that enhanced D. acuminata growth. Therefore, a common climate anomaly caused exceptional blooms of D. acuminata in two distant regions through different triggering mechanisms. These results increase our capability to predict intense diarrhetic shellfish poisoning outbreaks in the early spring from observations in the preceding winter. PMID:23959151

  9. Remote sensing of interannual boreal forest NDVI in relation to climatic conditions in interior Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verbyla, David

    2015-12-01

    Climate has warmed substantially in interior Alaska and several remote sensing studies have documented a decadal-scale decline in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) termed a ‘browning trend’. Reduced summer soil moisture due to changing climatic factors such as earlier springs, less snowpack, and summer drought may reduce boreal productivity and NDVI. However, the relative importance of these climatic factors is poorly understood in boreal interior Alaska. In this study, I used the remotely sensed peak summer NDVI as an index of boreal productivity at 250 m pixel size from 2000 to 2014. Maximum summer NDVI was related to last day of spring snow, early spring snow water equivalent (SWE), and a summer moisture index. There was no significant correlation between early spring SWE and peak summer NDVI. There was a significant correlation between the last day of spring snow and peak summer NDVI, but only for a few higher elevation stations. This was likely due to snowmelt occurring later at higher elevations, thus having a greater effect on summer soil moisture relative to lower elevation sites. For most of boreal interior Alaska, summer drought was likely the dominant control on peak summer NDVI and this effect may persist for several years. Peak summer NDVI declined at all 26 stations after the 2004 drought, and the decline persisted for 2 years at all stations. Due to the shallow rooting zone of most boreal plants, even cool and moist sites at lower elevations are likely vulnerable to drought. For example the peak summer NDVI response following the 2004 drought was similar for adjacent cold and warm watershed basins. Thus, if frequent and severe summer droughts continue, moisture stress effects are likely to be widespread and prolonged throughout most of interior boreal Alaska, including relatively cool, moist sites regardless of spring snowpack conditions or spring phenology.

  10. Evaluating Antarctic sea ice predictability at seasonal to interannual timescales in global climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marchi, Sylvain; Fichefet, Thierry; Goosse, Hugues; Zunz, Violette; Tietsche, Steffen; Day, Jonny; Hawkins, Ed

    2016-04-01

    Unlike the rapid sea ice losses reported in the Arctic, satellite observations show an overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extent over recent decades. Although many processes have already been suggested to explain this positive trend, it remains the subject of current investigations. Understanding the evolution of the Antarctic sea ice turns out to be more complicated than for the Arctic for two reasons: the lack of observations and the well-known biases of climate models in the Southern Ocean. Irrespective of those issues, another one is to determine whether the positive trend in sea ice extent would have been predictable if adequate observations and models were available some decades ago. This study of Antarctic sea ice predictability is carried out using 6 global climate models (HadGEM1.2, MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL CM3, EC-Earth V2, MIROC 5.2 and ECHAM 6-FESOM) which are all part of the APPOSITE project. These models are used to perform hindcast simulations in a perfect model approach. The predictive skill is estimated thanks to the PPP (Potential Prognostic Predictability) and the ACC (Anomaly Correlation Coefficient). The former is a measure of the uncertainty of the ensemble while the latter assesses the accuracy of the prediction. These two indicators are applied to different variables related to sea ice, in particular the total sea ice extent and the ice edge location. This first model intercomparison study about sea ice predictability in the Southern Ocean aims at giving a general overview of Antarctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models.

  11. Sensitivity of global tropical climate to land surface processes: Mean state and interannual variability

    SciTech Connect

    Ma, Hsi-Yen; Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Xue, Yongkang

    2013-03-01

    This study examines the sensitivity of global tropical climate to land surface processes (LSP) using an atmospheric general circulation model both uncoupled (with prescribed SSTs) and coupled to an oceanic general circulation model. The emphasis is on the interactive soil moisture and vegetation biophysical processes, which have first order influence on the surface energy and water budgets. The sensitivity to those processes is represented by the differences between model simulations, in which two land surface schemes are considered: 1) a simple land scheme that specifies surface albedo and soil moisture availability, and 2) the Simplified Simple Biosphere Model (SSiB), which allows for consideration of interactive soil moisture and vegetation biophysical process. Observational datasets are also employed to assess the reality of model-revealed sensitivity. The mean state sensitivity to different LSP is stronger in the coupled mode, especially in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, seasonal cycle of SSTs in the equatorial Pacific, as well as ENSO frequency, amplitude, and locking to the seasonal cycle of SSTs are significantly modified and more realistic with SSiB. This outstanding sensitivity of the atmosphere-ocean system develops through changes in the intensity of equatorial Pacific trades modified by convection over land. Our results further demonstrate that the direct impact of land-atmosphere interactions on the tropical climate is modified by feedbacks associated with perturbed oceanic conditions ("indirect effect" of LSP). The magnitude of such indirect effect is strong enough to suggest that comprehensive studies on the importance of LSP on the global climate have to be made in a system that allows for atmosphere-ocean interactions.

  12. Interannual and long-term climate variability over the Zaire River Basin during the last 30 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kazadi, Sanga-Ngoie; Kaoru, Fukuyama

    1996-09-01

    Climatological data records of temperature, rainfall, and number of rainy days provided by the Zaire Meteorological Agency (METTELSAT) at seven Zairian stations for the 1960-1992 period are analyzed for the first time since the 1970s. Our investigations focus on climate variability as related with environmental changes over the Zaire River Basin, which is climatologically and biogenetically one of the most important regions in the world. On the basis of the 30-year monthly mean climatologies, it is shown that the solar annual cycle dominates the seasonal changes of both the temperature and rainfall over this region. On the interannual time-scales, the variability of these climatic variables is characterized by (1) a 2-to 5-year oscillation strongly correlated to the southern oscillation index, thus to the ENSO phenomenon, and (2) a nearly 10-year oscillation (called here the quasi-decadal oscillation, QDO) with a very remarkable correlationship with the solar activity (sunspots number). On the long-term timescale, a remarkable decreasing trend in rainfall and number of rainy days, as well as increasing temperatures over the 30-year period, has been detected as the most dominant climatological features all over the basin. The magnitudes of temperature increase are by far larger than those reported in previous works for both the global mean and hemispherical mean warmings. We postulate that this trend of regional warming and desiccation from within the heart of the African rainforests is due to the increase in surface albedo, itself triggered by uncontrolled land-use policies and forests development over this area (logging, slash and burn, bushfire, fuelwood, farming, ranching, urbanization, etc.).

  13. Climate and socioeconomic influences on interannual variability of cholera in Nigeria.

    PubMed

    Leckebusch, Gregor C; Abdussalam, Auwal F

    2015-07-01

    Cholera is one of the most important climate sensitive diseases in Nigeria that pose a threat to public health because of its fatality and endemic nature. This study aims to investigate the influences of meteorological and socioeconomic factors on the spatiotemporal variability of cholera morbidity and mortality in Nigeria. Stepwise multiple regression and generalised additive models were fitted for individual states as well as for three groups of the states based on annual precipitation. Different meteorological variables were analysed, taking into account socioeconomic factors that are potentially enhancing vulnerability (e.g. absolute poverty, adult literacy, access to pipe borne water). Results quantify the influence of both climate and socioeconomic variables in explaining the spatial and temporal variability of the disease incidence and mortality. Regional importance of different factors is revealed, which will allow further insight into the disease dynamics. Additionally, cross validated models suggest a strong possibility of disease prediction, which will help authorities to put effective control measures in place which depend on prevention, and or efficient response.

  14. Seasonal and Interannual Trends in Largest Cholera Endemic Megacity: Water Sustainability - Climate - Health Challenges in Dhaka, Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akanda, Ali S.; Jutla, Antarpreet; Faruque, Abu S. G.; Huq, Anwar; Colwell, Rita R.

    2014-05-01

    The last three decades of surveillance data shows a drastic increase of cholera prevalence in the largest cholera-endemic city in the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh. Emerging megacities in the region, especially those located in coastal areas also remain vulnerable to large scale drivers of cholera outbreaks. However, there has not been any systematic study on linking long-term disease trends with related changes in natural or societal variables. Here, we analyze the 30-year dynamics of urban cholera prevalence in Dhaka with changes in climatic or anthropogenic forcings: regional hydrology, flooding, water usage, changes in distribution systems, population growth and density in urban settlements, as well as shifting climate patterns and frequency of natural disasters. An interesting change is observed in the seasonal trends of cholera prevalence; while an endemic upward trend is seen in the dry season, the post-monsoon trend is epidemic in nature. In addition, the trend in the pre-monsoon dry season is significantly stronger than the post-monsoon wet season; and thus spring is becoming the dominant cholera season of the year. Evidence points to growing urbanization and rising population in unplanned settlements along the city peripheries. The rapid pressure of growth has led to an unsustainable and potentially disastrous situation with negligible-to-poor water and sanitation systems compounded by changing climatic patterns and increasing number of extreme weather events. Growing water scarcity in the dry season and lack of sustainable water and sanitation infrastructure for urban settlements have increased endemicity of cholera outbreaks in spring, while record flood events and prolonged post-monsoon inundation have contributed to increased epidemic outbreaks in fall. We analyze our findings with the World Health Organization recommended guidelines and investigate large scale water sustainability challenges in the context of climatic and anthropogenic changes in the

  15. Effects of Interannual Climate Variability in Secondary Forests and Crops Under Traditional and Alternative Shifting Cultivation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sa, T. D.; Guild, L. S.; Carvalho, C. J.; Potter, C. S.; Wickel, A. J.; Brienza, S.; Kato, M. A.; Kato, O.

    2002-12-01

    Regenerating forests play an important role in long-term carbon sequestration and sustainable landuse as they act as potentially important carbon and nutrient sinks during the shifting agriculture fallow period. The long-term functioning of secondary forests (capoeira) is increasingly threatened by a shortening fallow period during shifting cultivation due to demographic pressures and associated increased vulnerability to severe climatic events. Declining productivity and functioning of fallow forests of shifting cultivation combined with progressive loss of nutrients by successive burning and cropping activities has resulted in declining agricultural productivity. In addition to the effects of intense land use practices, droughts associated with El Ni¤o events are becoming more frequent and severe in moist tropical forests and negative effects on capoeira productivity could be considerable. In Igarape-Acu (near Belem, Para), we hypothesize that experimental alternative landuse/clearing practices (mulching and fallow vegetation improvement by planting with fast-growing leguminous tree species) may make capoeira and crops more resilient to the effects of agricultural pressures and drought through 1) increased biomass, soil organic matter and associated increase in soil water storage, and nutrient retention and 2) greater rooting depth of trees planted for fallow improvement. This experimental practice (mechanized chop-and-mulch with fallow improvement) has resulted in increased soil moisture during the cropping phase, reduced loss of nutrients and organic matter, and higher rates of secondary-forest biomass accumulation. We present preliminary data on water relations during the dry season of 2001 in capoeira and crops for both traditional slash-and-burn and alternative chop-and-mulch practices. These data will be used to test IKONOS data for the detection of moisture status differences. The principal goal of the research is to determine the extent to which capoeira

  16. Interannual Variability of Primary Production and Fishery in Response to Climate Changes in the Bering Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, M.; Deal, C.; McRoy, P.

    2007-12-01

    The climate trends of reducing sea ice cover and rising temperature have profound impacts on the lower tropic level production and fishery production. The lower trophic level production from 1970 to 2005 was simulated using a vertically 1-D coupled ice-ocean ecosystem model (Jin et al., 2007) that includes 10 compartments: three phytoplankton (pelagic diatom, flagellates and ice algae), three zooplankton (copepods, large zooplankton, and microzooplankton), three nutrients (nitrate+nitrite, ammonium, silicon) and detritus. By using a turbulence closure model (Mellor, 2001), tidal mixing and its interactions with wind stirring, and thermal stratification were realistically reproduced. The 1-D model was applied to the mooring site M2 in the southeastern Bering Sea. The water depth H=74m. The model is forced by NCEP reanalysis data and sea ice concentration data from Hadley Center (monthly) before 1978 and SSM/I (daily) after 1997. Surface boundary includes wind stress, heat and salt flux. Model results are validated favorably with observations: 1) temperature, salinity, fluorometer data at 12m, 24m and 44m at NOAA/PMEL mooring from 1995-2005; 2) daily SeaWiFS chl a data (1997-2005). While the quantity of variability of the primary production did not show an increase/decrease trend in the past three decade, there exists a shift of dominant phytoplankton species coincident of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. The model primary production were dominant by ice algae before the 1976/77 regime shift, and by open water species of diatom and flagellates thereafter with only occasional ice algal blooms. Fish catches in the eastern Bering Sea showed mixed reponse to the climate changes. Among the 12 dominant economic fish species, only Walleye pollock and Yellowfin sole showed significant correlations with the PDO index in certain regions.

  17. Integrating interannual climate variability forecasts into weather-indexed crop insurance. The case of Malawi, Kenya and Tanzania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vicarelli, M.; Giannini, A.; Osgood, D.

    2009-12-01

    possible payouts using historical precipitation data and analyzed the differences between years with different ENSO states from 1961 to 2005; (ii) we applied Monte Carlo methods to simulate precipitation distributions in each location and calculated the mean and variance of payouts associated to different ENSO states. The results obtained from historical precipitation data indicate that more abundant rainfall reduces payouts and the risk of loan default during La Niña in southern Kenya and Malawi, during El Niño in Tanzania. The results of the Monte Carlo simulations confirm our findings. Our results suggest that re-insurance schemes could be successfully designed to exploit the anti-correlation patterns related to interannual climate variability for different regions in Africa. Moreover, the exploratory framework presented can potentially be refined applied to other regions (e.g. Central and Latin America).

  18. Evaluating Inter-Annual Climate Variability of Nitrogen Wet Deposition in the United States Using Wavelet Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nergui, T.; Thomas, N.; Liu, M.; Lamb, B. K.; Adam, J. C.; Chung, S. H.

    2012-12-01

    Human activities, primarily agricultural practices and fossil fuel combustion, have caused a significant increase in nitrogen (N) emissions into the atmosphere over the last 150 years. The increase in emission subsequently leads to elevated ozone concentration, haze, increased acid rain and N deposition at local and regional scales. Many ecosystems in the US are naturally N limited. These regions are highly vulnerable to increased N deposition which can lead to irreversible changes in biodiversity richness and composition of the ecosystems. Through the impact on atmospheric chemistry and scavenging by precipitation, climate variability can play a major role on N deposition rates. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Northern Annular Mode/Arctic Oscillation (NAM/AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA) indices are the key climate indices that characterize the climate in the contiguous US at inter-annual timescale. Here, we identify dominant periodic components (signal) in the N wet deposition and the climate index timeseries and examine their correlations and coherences using wavelet analysis. Seasonal precipitation and nitrogen (ammonium and nitrate) wet deposition data from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP), National Trends Network (NTN) for 87 sites across the United States are used for the study. The sites were selected based on data continuity of 21 years or more and NADP criteria for valid precipitation and wet deposition data. Precipitation data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are also used to replicate and validate the general features of climate variability effects in different regions of US. Initial analysis reveals nitrate wet deposition has a dominant 1-4 year periodicity while ammonium wet deposition has a shorter periodicity (about 0.5-2 year) during 1979 to 2011. Precipitation and total N wet deposition are most correlated in the Great Plains

  19. Climate and Developmental Plasticity: Interannual Variability in Grapevine Leaf Morphology1[OPEN

    PubMed Central

    Li, Darren Y.; Woodford, Quaneisha L.; Yu, Tommy T.

    2016-01-01

    The shapes of leaves are dynamic, changing over evolutionary time between species, within a single plant producing different shaped leaves at successive nodes, during the development of a single leaf as it allometrically expands, and in response to the environment. Notably, strong correlations between the dissection and size of leaves with temperature and precipitation exist in both the paleorecord and extant populations. Yet, a morphometric model integrating evolutionary, developmental, and environmental effects on leaf shape is lacking. Here, we continue a morphometric analysis of >5,500 leaves representing 270 grapevines of multiple Vitis species between two growing seasons. Leaves are paired one-to-one and vine-to-vine accounting for developmental context, between growing seasons. Linear discriminant analysis reveals shape features that specifically define growing season, regardless of species or developmental context. The shape feature, a more pronounced distal sinus, is associated with the colder, drier growing season, consistent with patterns observed in the paleorecord. We discuss the implications of such plasticity in a long-lived woody perennial, such as grapevine (Vitis spp.), with respect to the evolution and functionality of plant morphology and changes in climate. PMID:26826220

  20. Murres, capelin and ocean climate: inter-annual associations across a decadal shift.

    PubMed

    Regular, P M; Shuhood, F; Power, T; Montevecchi, W A; Robertson, G J; Ballam, D; Piatt, J F; Nakashima, B

    2009-09-01

    To ensure energy demands for reproduction are met, it is essential that marine birds breed during periods of peak food availability. We examined associations of the breeding chronology of common murres (Uria aalge) with the timing of the inshore arrival of their primary prey, capelin (Mallotus villosus) from 1980 to 2006 across a period of pervasive change in the Northwest Atlantic ecosystem. We also assessed the influence of ocean temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; an index of winter climate and oceanography) on these interactions. We found a lagged linear relationship between variations in murre breeding chronology and the timing of capelin arrival in the previous year. On a decadal level, we found a non-linear threshold relationship between ocean temperature and the timing of capelin arrival and murre breeding. Centennially anomalous cold water temperatures in 1991 generated a marked shift in the timing of capelin spawning inshore and murre breeding, delaying both by more than 2 weeks. By the mid-1990s, ocean temperatures returned to pre-perturbation levels, whereas the temporal breeding responses of capelin and murres were delayed for a decade or more. Oceanographic conditions (temperature, NAO) were poor predictors of the timing of capelin arrival inshore in the current year compared to the previous one. Our findings suggest that knowledge of the timing of capelin availability in the previous year provides a robust cue for the long-lived murres, allowing them to achieve temporal overlap between breeding and peak capelin availability.

  1. Murres, capelin and ocean climate: Inter-annual associations across a decadal shift

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Regular, P.M.; Shuhood, F.; Power, T.; Montevecchi, W.A.; Robertson, G.J.; Ballam, D.; Piatt, John F.; Nakashima, B.

    2009-01-01

    To ensure energy demands for reproduction are met, it is essential that marine birds breed during periods of peak food availability. We examined associations of the breeding chronology of common murres (Uria aalge) with the timing of the inshore arrival of their primary prey, capelin (Mallotus villosus) from 1980 to 2006 across a period of pervasive change in the Northwest Atlantic ecosystem. We also assessed the influence of ocean temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; an index of winter climate and oceanography) on these interactions. We found a lagged linear relationship between variations in murre breeding chronology and the timing of capelin arrival in the previous year. On a decadal level, we found a non-linear threshold relationship between ocean temperature and the timing of capelin arrival and murre breeding. Centennially anomalous cold water temperatures in 1991 generated a marked shift in the timing of capelin spawning inshore and murre breeding, delaying both by more than 2 weeks. By the mid-1990s, ocean temperatures returned to pre-perturbation levels, whereas the temporal breeding responses of capelin and murres were delayed for a decade or more. Oceanographic conditions (temperature, NAO) were poor predictors of the timing of capelin arrival inshore in the current year compared to the previous one. Our findings suggest that knowledge of the timing of capelin availability in the previous year provides a robust cue for the long-lived murres, allowing them to achieve temporal overlap between breeding and peak capelin availability. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008.

  2. Sensitivity of stream flow droughts, water shortage and water stress events to ENSO driven inter-annual climate variability at the global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veldkamp, Ted I. E.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Ward, Philip J.

    2014-05-01

    Governments and institutions managing water resources have to adapt constantly to regional drought, water shortage and water stress conditions, being caused by climate change, socio-economic developments and/or climate variability. Taking into account the impact of climate variability is important as in some regions it may outweigh long-term climate change or socio-economic developments, especially on a time scale of a few years up to a few decades. As governments and water management institutions apply planning horizons up to a decade with respect to management of adaptation strategies, inter-annual climate variability is especially relevant. A number of studies have estimated the impacts of climate variability on stream flow droughts on a local, continental or global scale. Others have focused on the role of long term climate change and socio-economic trends on blue water availability, shortage and stress. However, a global assessment of the influence of inter-annual climate variability on stream flow droughts, blue water availability, shortage and stress together has not yet been carried out, despite its importance for adaptation planning. To address this issue, we assessed the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on stream flow droughts, blue water availability, and shortage and stress events at the global scale. Within this contribution we focused on El Nino Southern Oscillation's (ENSO) impact as ENSO is the most dominant source of inter-annual climate variability, impacting climate and society. We carried out this assessment through the following steps: (1) used daily discharge and run-off time-series (0.5º x 0.5º) of three WATCH forced global hydrological models (WaterGAP, PCR-GLOBWB, and STREAM); (2) in combination with time-series of population counts and monthly water demands we calculated monthly and yearly stream flow drought, water availability, water shortage and water stress per Food Producing Unit (FPU) for the period 1960-2000; and (3

  3. Climate and the individual: inter-annual variation in the autumnal activity of the European badger (Meles meles).

    PubMed

    Noonan, Michael J; Markham, Andrew; Newman, Chris; Trigoni, Niki; Buesching, Christina D; Ellwood, Stephen A; Macdonald, David W

    2014-01-01

    We establish intra-individual and inter-annual variability in European badger (Meles meles) autumnal nightly activity in relation to fine-scale climatic variables, using tri-axial accelerometry. This contributes further to understanding of causality in the established interaction between weather conditions and population dynamics in this species. Modelling found that measures of daylight, rain/humidity, and soil temperature were the most supported predictors of ACTIVITY, in both years studied. In 2010, the drier year, the most supported model included the SOLAR*RH interaction, RAIN, and 30cmTEMP (w = 0.557), while in 2012, a wetter year, the most supported model included the SOLAR*RH interaction, and the RAIN*10cmTEMP (w = 0.999). ACTIVITY also differed significantly between individuals. In the 2012 autumn study period, badgers with the longest per noctem activity subsequently exhibited higher Body Condition Indices (BCI) when recaptured. In contrast, under drier 2010 conditions, badgers in good BCI engaged in less per noctem activity, while badgers with poor BCI were the most active. When compared on the same calendar dates, to control for night length, duration of mean badger nightly activity was longer (9.5 hrs ±3.3 SE) in 2010 than in 2012 (8.3 hrs ±1.9 SE). In the wetter year, increasing nightly activity was associated with net-positive energetic gains (from BCI), likely due to better foraging conditions. In a drier year, with greater potential for net-negative energy returns, individual nutritional state proved crucial in modifying activity regimes; thus we emphasise how a 'one size fits all' approach should not be applied to ecological responses.

  4. Climate and the Individual: Inter-Annual Variation in the Autumnal Activity of the European Badger (Meles meles)

    PubMed Central

    Noonan, Michael J.; Markham, Andrew; Newman, Chris; Trigoni, Niki; Buesching, Christina D.; Ellwood, Stephen A.; Macdonald, David W.

    2014-01-01

    We establish intra-individual and inter-annual variability in European badger (Meles meles) autumnal nightly activity in relation to fine-scale climatic variables, using tri-axial accelerometry. This contributes further to understanding of causality in the established interaction between weather conditions and population dynamics in this species. Modelling found that measures of daylight, rain/humidity, and soil temperature were the most supported predictors of ACTIVITY, in both years studied. In 2010, the drier year, the most supported model included the SOLAR*RH interaction, RAIN, and30cmTEMP (w = 0.557), while in 2012, a wetter year, the most supported model included the SOLAR*RH interaction, and the RAIN*10cmTEMP (w = 0.999). ACTIVITY also differed significantly between individuals. In the 2012 autumn study period, badgers with the longest per noctem activity subsequently exhibited higher Body Condition Indices (BCI) when recaptured. In contrast, under drier 2010 conditions, badgers in good BCI engaged in less per noctem activity, while badgers with poor BCI were the most active. When compared on the same calendar dates, to control for night length, duration of mean badger nightly activity was longer (9.5 hrs ±3.3 SE) in 2010 than in 2012 (8.3 hrs ±1.9 SE). In the wetter year, increasing nightly activity was associated with net-positive energetic gains (from BCI), likely due to better foraging conditions. In a drier year, with greater potential for net-negative energy returns, individual nutritional state proved crucial in modifying activity regimes; thus we emphasise how a ‘one size fits all’ approach should not be applied to ecological responses. PMID:24465376

  5. Use of the HadGEM2 climate-chemistry model to investigate interannual variability in methane sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayman, Garry; O'Connor, Fiona; Clark, Douglas; Huntingford, Chris; Gedney, Nicola

    2013-04-01

    The global mean atmospheric concentration of methane (CH4) has more than doubled during the industrial era [1] and now constitutes ? 20% of the anthropogenic climate forcing by greenhouse gases [2]. The globally-averaged CH4 growth rate, derived from surface measurements, has fallen significantly from a high of 16 ppb yr-1 in the late 1970s/early 1980s and was close to zero between 1999 and 2006 [1]. This overall period of declining or low growth was however interspersed with years of positive growth-rate anomalies (e.g., in 1991-1992, 1998-1999 and 2002-2003). Since 2007, renewed growth has been evident [1, 3], with the largest increases observed over polar northern latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere in 2007 and in the tropics in 2008. The observed inter-annual variability in atmospheric methane concentrations and the associated changes in growth rates have variously been attributed to changes in different methane sources and sinks [1, 4]. In this paper, we report results from runs of the HadGEM2 climate-chemistry model [5] using year- and month-specific emission datasets. The HadGEM2 model includes the comprehensive atmospheric chemistry and aerosol package, the UK Chemistry Aerosol community model (UKCA, http://www.ukca.ac.uk/wiki/index.php). The Standard Tropospheric Chemistry scheme was selected for this work. This chemistry scheme simulates the Ox, HOx and NOx chemical cycles and the oxidation of CO, methane, ethane and propane. Year- and month-specific emission datasets were generated for the period from 1997 to 2009 for the emitted species in the chemistry scheme (CH4, CO, NOx, HCHO, C2H6, C3H8, CH3CHO, CH3CHOCH3). The approach adopted varied depending on the source sector: Anthropogenic: The emissions from anthropogenic sources were based on decadal-averaged emission inventories compiled by [6] for the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP). These were then used to derive year-specific emission datasets by scaling the

  6. Evaluation of the inter-annual variability of stratospheric chemical composition in chemistry-climate models using ground-based multi species time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poulain, V.; Bekki, S.; Marchand, M.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Khodri, M.; Lefèvre, F.; Dhomse, S.; Bodeker, G. E.; Toumi, R.; De Maziere, M.; Pommereau, J.-P.; Pazmino, A.; Goutail, F.; Plummer, D.; Rozanov, E.; Mancini, E.; Akiyoshi, H.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Austin, J.

    2016-07-01

    The variability of stratospheric chemical composition occurs on a broad spectrum of timescales, ranging from day to decades. A large part of the variability appears to be driven by external forcings such as volcanic aerosols, solar activity, halogen loading, levels of greenhouse gases (GHG), and modes of climate variability (quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)). We estimate the contributions of different external forcings to the interannual variability of stratospheric chemical composition and evaluate how well 3-D chemistry-climate models (CCMs) can reproduce the observed response-forcing relationships. We carry out multivariate regression analyses on long time series of observed and simulated time series of several traces gases in order to estimate the contributions of individual forcings and unforced variability to their internannual variability. The observations are typically decadal time series of ground-based data from the international Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) and the CCM simulations are taken from the CCMVal-2 REF-B1 simulations database. The chemical species considered are column O3, HCl, NO2, and N2O. We check the consistency between observations and model simulations in terms of the forced and internal components of the total interannual variability (externally forced variability and internal variability) and identify the driving factors in the interannual variations of stratospheric chemical composition over NDACC measurement sites. Overall, there is a reasonably good agreement between regression results from models and observations regarding the externally forced interannual variability. A much larger fraction of the observed and modelled interannual variability is explained by external forcings in the tropics than in the extratropics, notably in polar regions. CCMs are able to reproduce the amplitudes of responses in chemical composition to specific external forcings

  7. Seasonal and Inter-annual Variation in Wood Production in Tropical Trees on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, is Related to Local Climate and Species Functional Traits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cushman, K.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Kellner, J. R.; Wright, S. J.; Condit, R.; Detto, M.; Tribble, C. M.

    2015-12-01

    Tropical forest carbon budgets play a major role in global carbon dynamics, but the responses of tropical forests to current and future inter-annual climatic variation remains highly uncertain. Better predictions of future tropical forest carbon fluxes require an improved understanding of how different species of tropical trees respond to changes in climate at seasonal and inter-annual temporal scales. We installed dendrometer bands on a size-stratified sample of 2000 trees in old growth forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, a moist lowland forest that experiences an annual dry season of approximately four months. Tree diameters were measured at the beginning and end of the rainy season since 2008. Additionally, we recorded the canopy illumination level, canopy intactness, and liana coverage of all trees during each census. We used linear mixed-effects models to evaluate how tree growth was related to seasonal and interannual variation in local climate, tree condition, and species identity, and how species identity effects related to tree functional traits. Climatic variables considered included precipitation, solar radiation, soil moisture, and climatological water deficit, and were all calculated from high-quality on-site measurements. Functional traits considered included wood density, maximum adult stature, deciduousness, and drought tolerance. We found that annual wood production was positively related to water availability, with higher growth in wetter years. Species varied in their response to seasonal water availability, with some species showing more pronounced reduction of growth during the dry season when water availability is limited. Interspecific variation in seasonal and interannual growth patterns was related to life-history strategies and species functional traits. The finding of higher growth in wetter years is consistent with previous tree ring studies conducted on a small subset of species with reliable annual rings. Together with previous

  8. Coupled ocean-atmosphere model system for studies of interannual-to-decadal climate variability over the North Pacific Basin and precipitation over the Southwestern United States

    SciTech Connect

    Lai, Chung-Chieng A.

    1997-10-01

    This is the final report of a one-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The ultimate objective of this research project is to make understanding and predicting regional climate easier. The long-term goals of this project are (1) to construct a coupled ocean-atmosphere model (COAM) system, (2) use it to explore the interannual-to-decadal climate variability over the North Pacific Basin, and (3) determine climate effects on the precipitation over the Southwestern United States. During this project life, three major tasks were completed: (1) Mesoscale ocean and atmospheric model; (2) global-coupled ocean and atmospheric modeling: completed the coupling of LANL POP global ocean model with NCAR CCM2+ global atmospheric model; and (3) global nested-grid ocean modeling: designed the boundary interface for the nested-grid ocean models.

  9. Inter-annual variability of stream temperature, micro-climate and heat exchange dynamics: a comparison of forest and moorland environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garner, G.; Hannah, D. M.; Malcolm, I. A.; Sadler, J. P.

    2012-04-01

    Riparian woodland is recognised as important in moderating stream temperature variability and offers potential to mitigate thermal extremes under a warming climate. Previous research on the heat exchanges determining water column temperature has been often short-term, or seasonally-constrained, with the few long term year-round studies limited to a maximum of two years. This paper addresses these research gaps by comparing inter-annual variability in stream temperature, micro-climate and heat exchange dynamics between stream reaches of contrasting riparian landuse. Automatic weather stations (AWS) were installed in semi-natural woodland and moorland (no trees) reaches of the Girnock Burn, an upland tributary of the Aberdeenshire Dee. Data were collected across all seasons over seven calendar years. This research yields, for the first time, a long-term perspective on temporal differences in river heat exchange processes associated with riparian landuse under a range of hydroclimatological conditions. Results indicate that the presence of a riparian canopy has a persistent effect year-to-year in reducing mean and maximum daily water column temperature under a variety of hydrological and meteorological conditions. Woodland and moorland reaches display similar inter-annual variability in daily water column temperature range during spring and early summer, but in mid-summer and autumn woodland inter-annual variability is reduced greatly compared with moorland. Higher inter-annual variability (indicated by standard deviations) in spring and early summer water temperature ranges at both sites are attributed to increasing day length and solar radiation receipt, which a developing forest canopy at the woodland site is not able to mitigate. Once the full riparian canopy, hence maximum shading potential, is established (mid-summer) inter-annual variability in woodland temperature range is reduced greatly. The magnitude of woodland water temperature range is greater in spring

  10. Statistical modeling of interannual shoreline change driven by North Atlantic climate variability spanning 2000-2014 in the Bay of Biscay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robinet, A.; Castelle, B.; Idier, D.; Le Cozannet, G.; Déqué, M.; Charles, E.

    2016-12-01

    Modeling studies addressing daily to interannual coastal evolution typically relate shoreline change with waves, currents and sediment transport through complex processes and feedbacks. For wave-dominated environments, the main driver (waves) is controlled by the regional atmospheric circulation. Here a simple weather regime-driven shoreline model is developed for a 15-year shoreline dataset (2000-2014) collected at Truc Vert beach, Bay of Biscay, SW France. In all, 16 weather regimes (four per season) are considered. The centroids and occurrences are computed using the ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses, applying k-means and EOF methods to the anomalies of the 500-hPa geopotential height over the North Atlantic Basin. The weather regime-driven shoreline model explains 70% of the observed interannual shoreline variability. The application of a proven wave-driven equilibrium shoreline model to the same period shows that both models have similar skills at the interannual scale. Relation between the weather regimes and the wave climate in the Bay of Biscay is investigated and the primary weather regimes impacting shoreline change are identified. For instance, the winter zonal regime characterized by a strengthening of the pressure gradient between the Iceland low and the Azores high is associated with high-energy wave conditions and is found to drive an increase in the shoreline erosion rate. The study demonstrates the predictability of interannual shoreline change from a limited number of weather regimes, which opens new perspectives for shoreline change modeling and encourages long-term shoreline monitoring programs.

  11. Interannual Variations In the Low-Degree Components of the Geopotential derived from SLR and the Connections With Geophysical/Climatic Processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, Benjamin F.; Cox, Christopher M.; Au, Andrew Y.

    2004-01-01

    Recent Satellite Laser Ranging derived long wavelength gravity time series analysis has focused to a large extent on the effects of the recent large changes in the Earth s 52, and the potential causes. However, it is difficult to determine whether there are corresponding signals in the shorter wavelength zonals from the existing SLR-derived time variable gravity results, although it appears that geophysical fluid transport is being observed. For example, the recovered J3 time series shows remarkable agreement with NCEP-derived estimates of atmospheric gravity variations. Likewise, some of the non-zonal spherical harmonic coefficient series have significant interannual signal that appears to be related to mass transport. The non-zonal degree 2 terms show reasonable correlation with atmospheric signals, as well as climatic effects such as El Nino Southern Oscillation. While the formal uncertainty of these terms is significantly higher than that for J2, it is also clear that there is useful signal to be extracted. Consequently, the SLR time series is being reprocessed to improve the time variable gravity field recovery. We will present recent updates on the J2 evolution, as well as a look at other components of the interannual variations of the gravity field, complete through degree 4, and possible geophysical and climatic causes.

  12. Sensitivity of alpine grassland carbon balance to interannual variability in climate and atmospheric CO2 on the Tibetan Plateau during the last century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Xiaohui; Han, Pengfei; Zhang, Wen; Wang, Guocheng

    2017-07-01

    As the Earth's third pole, the Tibetan Plateau ecosystems are extremely sensitive to climate change. However, the interannual climate sensitivity of the carbon balance of the Tibetan Plateau alpine grassland has not been well quantified under changes in the climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Here, we used a process-based biogeochemistry model, CENTURY, to evaluate the sensitivity of the carbon balance to climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration on the Tibetan Plateau grassland during the period 1901-2010. We show that the magnitude of the increase in net primary production (NPP) (0.31 g C m- 2 yr- 1) was larger than that in heterotrophic respiration (Rh) (0.26 g C m- 2 yr- 1), and thus indicate that the Tibetan Plateau grassland acted as a net carbon sink of 7.45 Tg C yr- 1 from 1901 to 2010. The spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon fluxes in the Tibetan Plateau grassland were primarily controlled by temperature, and positively correlated with precipitation and elevated CO2 concentration. The temperature sensitivities of NPP (γNPPTemp), Rh (γRhTemp), and net ecosystem production (NEP, γNEPTemp) during the period 1961-2010 weakened by 16%, 17%, and 15%, respectively, compared with the period 1901-1960. By contrast, the precipitation sensitivities of these variables, i.e., γNPPPrec, γRhPrec, and γNEPPrec, strengthened by 46%, 67%, and 23%, respectively, from 1961 to 2010 compared with the 1901-1960 period. The continuing increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration tended to enhance the climate sensitivity of the carbon fluxes, by 3% for γTemp and 2%-4% for γPrec, as a result of CO2 fertilization and water use efficiency improvement. The climate sensitivity heterogeneity revealed that interannual variation in Rh is more likely to be amplified than NPP or NEP. The findings imply that climate change exerts a strong influence on the carbon dynamics of the alpine ecosystem in the Tibetan Plateau, and this could further modulate the carbon balance

  13. Interannual and orbital-scale climate variability in the early Miocene: Compound-specific D/H records from the Foulden Maar Diatomite, New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Andrea, W. J.; Fox, B.; Lee, D.

    2013-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is the most important interannual climate variation on Earth and has far reaching impacts on global climate. However, the behavior of ENSO over orbital timescales and under different global climate states is poorly understood and controversial. It has been proposed that ENSO behaved much differently in the past, perhaps even transitioning toward a permanent El Niño-like state. Our understanding of the ENSO response to orbital variations and the background climate state is incomplete and there are fundamental flaws in our knowledge of this important player in Earth's climate system. Here we present a 100,000-yr long compound-specific hydrogen isotope (D/H) record along with varve thickness data that document southern New Zealand (46°S, 170°E) climate in the early Miocene; the results suggest modulation of ENSO by Earth's orbital changes at precession (~22,000 year) and semiprecession (~11,000 year) timescales. Our data come from analyses of the Foulden Maar Diatomite, an annually laminated sediment sequence from an early Miocene freshwater lake in Otago, New Zealand. The diatomite contains approximately 100,000 dark-light couplets interpreted as biogenic varves, and has exquisite preservation of leaves, flowers, insects, diatom frustules and n-alkanoic acids derived from leaf waxes and algae. D/H records from n-alkanoic acids reveal large variations corresponding to precession (~22,000 yrs) and semi-precession (~11,000 yrs) timescales that reflect large paleohydrological changes. Varve thickness records reveal spectral power that exceeds the 99% confidence limit in the 3 to 7-yr band, and indicate that ENSO was an important driver of interannual climate variability in southern New Zealand during the early Miocene. We propose that the semiprecession-paced hydrologic changes represented by our compound-specific D/H record document the modulation of ENSO by variations in Earth's orbital configuration; specifically, that

  14. Large-scale climate control on the occurrence of turbid events on interannual scales in a karstified, heavily exploited karst system in northwestern France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massei, N.; Laignel, B.; Dupont, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    High-amplitude turbid episodes at water supplies can cause significant sanitary issues to populations. Owing to their hydrogeologic specificity, karst ground waters are particularly sensitive to such phenomena, involving either fast infiltration of turbid surface water or resuspension of intra-karstic sediments during flood events. In some regions, such as Upper Normandy (France), soil erosion and karst features in the chalk aquifer are at the origin of major turbid events which may result in interrupted water supply to the local populations. Thanks to a long daily turbidity time series corresponding to measurements at one major karst spring since the mid-80's, we could investigate the large-scale atmospheric circulation control on below- or above-average turbidity periods. The turbidity time-series actually display periods on pluriannual duration during which daily turbid events are more frequent and have higher amplitudes, which can not be seen on daily precipitation records. Comparison was made between annual precipitation amounts, chalk aquifer water table variations and turbidity throughout this approximately 25-year period, which showed interannual recharge periods associated to above-normal turbid conditions. We then studied the linkages between such variations and large-scale atmospheric circulation using a NOAA sea level pressure reanalysis product. A wavelet multiresolution analysis of all hydrological and climatic signals revealed common aperiodic oscillations on interannual scales and allowed identification of the large-scale, interannual-scale atmospheric pattern that was responsible for those above-normal turbid periods; this atmospheric pattern was not necessarily similar to that responsible to any individual short-term turbid event.

  15. Hydrologic benchmarking of meteorological drought indices at interannual to climate change timescales: a case study over the Amazon and Mississippi river basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joetzjer, E.; Douville, H.; Delire, C.; Ciais, P.; Decharme, B.; Tyteca, S.

    2013-12-01

    Widely used metrics of drought are still derived solely from analyses of meteorological variables such as precipitation and temperature. While drought is generally a consequence of atmospheric anomalies, the impacts to society are more directly related to hydrologic conditions. The present study uses a standardized runoff index (SRI) as a proxy for river discharge and as a benchmark for various meteorological drought indices (scPDSI, SPI, SPEI_th, and SPEI_hg respectively). Only 12-month duration droughts are considered in order to allow a direct (no river routing) comparison between meteorological anomalies and their hydrological counterpart. The analysis is conducted over the Mississippi and Amazon river basins, which provide two contrasted test beds for evaluating drought indices at both interannual (using detrended data) and climate change (using raw data) timescales. Looking first at observations over the second half of the 20th century, the simple SPI based solely on precipitation is no less suitable than more sophisticated meteorological drought indices at detecting interannual SRI variations. Using the detrended runoff and meteorological outputs of a five-member single model ensemble of historical and 21th century climate simulations leads to the same conclusion. Looking at the 21st century projections, the response of the areal fraction in drought to global warming is shown to be strongly metric dependent and potentially overestimated by the drought indices which account for temperature variations. These results suggest that empirical meteorological drought indices should be considered with great caution in a warming climate and that more physical water balance models are needed to account for the impact of the anthropogenic radiative forcings on hydrological droughts.

  16. Improving interannual prediction skill in a changing climate via the identi cation of compensating coupled model errors

    SciTech Connect

    Tziperman, Eli; MacMartin, Douglas

    2013-08-31

    Significant progress can be made through a truly interdisciplinary effort, combining the expertise from climate dynamics and from engineering control. We believe that this novel approach can make a unique and valuable contribution, and help the climate community deliver improved models for the potential response of the Earth's climate to increased greenhouse gas levels.

  17. Long series relationships between global interannual CO2 increment and climate: evidence for stability and change in role of the tropical and boreal-temperate zones.

    PubMed

    Adams, Jonathan M; Piovesan, Gianluca

    2005-06-01

    Interannual variability in global CO2 increment (averaged from the Mauna Loa and South Pole Stations) shows certain strong spatial relationships to both tropical and temperate temperatures. There is a fairly strong positive year-round correlation between tropical mean annual temperatures (leading by 4 months) and annual CO2 throughout the time series since 1960, agreeing with the generally held view that the tropics play a major role in determining inter-annual variability in CO2 increment, with a major CO2 pulse following a warm year in the tropics. This 'almost no lag' climatic response is very strong during winter and relatively stable in time. However, the correlation with tropical temperature appears to have weakened in the first years of the 1990s in correspondence of the Pinatubo eruption and the positive phase of the AO/NAO. A secondary concurrent temperature signal is linked to summer variations of north temperate belt. Northern summer temperatures in the region 30-60 degrees N-and especially in the land area corresponding to the central east USA-have become relatively more closely correlated with CO2 increment. This trend has become increasingly stronger in recent years, suggesting an increasing role for growing season processes in the northern midlatitudes in affecting global CO2 increment. Once non-lagged annual tropical temperature variations are accounted for, terrestrial ecosystems, especially the temperate-boreal biomes, also show a coherent large scale lagged response. This involves an inverse response to annual temperature of preceding years centered at around 2 years before. This lagged response is most likely linked to internal biogeochemical cycles, in particular N cycling. During the study period north boreal ecosystems show a strengthening of the lagged correlation with temperature in recent years, while the lagged correlation with areas of tropical ecosystems has weakened. Residuals from a multiple correlations based on these climatic

  18. Contribution of the terrestrial biosphere to interannual variations in atmospheric CO{sub 2}

    SciTech Connect

    King, A.W.; Post, W.M.; Wullschleger, S.D.

    1995-06-01

    Interannual fluctuations in atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration may reflect interannual variations in the CO{sub 2} source/sink strength of the terrestrial biosphere. Recurrent changes in climate like those associated with El Nino events and episodic changes like those associated with the Mt. Pinatubo eruption could alter the global balance between terrestrial net primary production and heterotrophic (decomposer) respiration and thus influence net CO{sub 2} exchange with the atmosphere. A georeferenced global terrestrial biosphere model (0.5{degrees} spatial resolution and monthly temporal resolution) was used to simulate interannual variations in net CO{sub 2} exchange with the atmosphere. The model was driven with monthly temperature and precipitation data for the period 1900 to present. Interannual variations in simulated net CO{sub 2} exchange were compared with historical records of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. Consecutive years of an enhanced terrestrial sink were associated with periods of declining atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration; consecutive years of enhanced source strength were associated with positive atmospheric CO{sub 2} anomalies. We conclude that interannual variations in terrestrial biospheric carbon flux contribute significantly to interannual variations in atmospheric CO{sub 2}.

  19. Effects of model spatial resolution on ecohydrologic predictions and their sensitivity to inter-annual climate variability

    Treesearch

    Kyongho Son; Christina Tague; Carolyn Hunsaker

    2016-01-01

    The effect of fine-scale topographic variability on model estimates of ecohydrologic responses to climate variability in California’s Sierra Nevada watersheds has not been adequately quantified and may be important for supporting reliable climate-impact assessments. This study tested the effect of digital elevation model (DEM) resolution on model accuracy and estimates...

  20. The role of remote versus local climatic influences in shaping seasonal to interannual rainfall isotopic variations in northern Borneo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moerman, J. W.; Cobb, K. M.; Konecky, B. L.; Noone, D. C.

    2014-12-01

    While interannual and intraseasonal variability are the dominant influences on modern rainfall water isotopes (δ18O and δD) in northern Borneo (Moerman et al., 2013), the strong resemblance between stalagmite δ18O and equatorial boreal fall insolation over the Holocene and late Pleistocene suggests that seasonal δ18O variability is an important control on Borneo stalagmite δ18O over glacial/interglacial timescales (Carolin et al., 2013). A weak, bimodal seasonal cycle of 2-3‰ exists in northern Borneo rainfall δ18O, with relative minima during winter/summer and relative maxima during spring/fall. The seasonal cycle in rainfall δ18O, however, is poorly correlated to seasonal variations in precipitation amount. As a result, the processes driving rainfall δ18O seasonality at Borneo remain unclear. To better constrain the controlling mechanisms, we compare a 7-yr-long timeseries of daily Borneo rainfall δ18O to overlapping satellite-based measurements of GOSAT and TES tropospheric water vapor δD. To investigate the role of moist processes such as evaporation, condensation, and convection, we explore the relationship between seasonal composites of water vapor δD and specific humidity in the Borneo region. We also use HYSPLIT air mass back-trajectories to differentiate local (e.g. moisture recycling, local convection/evaporation) versus regional (e.g. moisture source region, trajectory, and convective activity) controls on the seasonal isotopic composition of Borneo rainfall. Given the sensitivity of Borneo rainfall δ18O to interannual shifts in the zonal location of deep convection in the western Pacific - which drive rainfall δ18O variations of up to 6-8‰ - we perform similar investigations during the weak-to-moderate and moderate-to-strong ENSO cycles of 2006-2008 and 2009-2011 respectively. With this study, we identify the relative influence of local moist processes as well as meridional and zonal shifts in regional hydrology on past western Pacific

  1. Climatic controls on the interannual to decadal variability in Saudi Arabian dust activity: Toward the development of a seasonal dust prediction model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Yan; Notaro, Michael; Liu, Zhengyu; Wang, Fuyao; Alkolibi, Fahad; Fadda, Eyad; Bakhrjy, Fawzieh

    2015-03-01

    The observed climatic controls on springtime and summertime Saudi Arabian dust activities during 1975-2012 are analyzed, leading to development of a seasonal dust prediction model. According to empirical orthogonal function analysis, dust storm frequency exhibits a dominantly homogeneous pattern across Saudi Arabia, with distinct interannual and decadal variability. The previously identified positive trend in remotely sensed aerosol optical depth since 2000 is shown to be a segment of the decadal oscillation in dust activity, according to long-duration station record. Regression and correlation analyses reveal that the interannual variability in Saudi Arabian dust storm frequency is regulated by springtime rainfall across the Arabian Peninsula and summertime Shamal wind intensity. The key drivers of Saudi Arabian dust storm variability are identified. Winter-to-spring La Niña enhances subsequent spring dust activity by decreasing rainfall across the country's primary dust source region, the Rub' al Khali Desert. A relatively cool tropical Indian Ocean favors frequent summer dust storms by producing an anomalously anticyclonic circulation over the central Arabian Peninsula, which enhances the Shamal wind. Decadal variability in Saudi Arabian dust storm frequency is associated with North African rainfall and Sahel vegetation, which regulate African dust emissions and transport to Saudi Arabia. Mediterranean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also regulate decadal dust variability, likely through their influence on Sahel rainfall and Shamal intensity. Using antecedent-accumulated rainfall over the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa, and Mediterranean SSTs, as low-frequency predictors, and tropical eastern Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean SSTs as high-frequency predictors, Saudi Arabia's seasonal dust activity is well predicted.

  2. Modelling the interannual variability (1979-2012) of the Mediterranean open-sea deep convection using a coupled regional climate system model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Somot, Samuel; Testor, Pierre; Durrieu de Madron, Xavier; Houpert, Loic; Herrmann, Marine; Dubois, Clotilde; Sevault, Florence

    2013-04-01

    The North-Western Mediterranean Sea is known as one of the only place in the world where open-sea deep convection occurs (often up to more than 2000m) with the formation of the Western Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW). This phenomena is mostly driven by local preconditioning of the water column and strong buoyancy losses during Winter. At the event scale, the WMDW formation is characterized by different phases (preconditioning, strong mixing, restratification and spreading), intense air-sea interaction and strong meso-scale activity but, on a longer time scale, it also shows a large interannual variability and may be strongly affected by climate change with impact on the regional biogeochemistry. Therefore simulating and understanding the temporal variability of the North-Western Mediterranean open-sea deep convection is considered as quite a challenging task for the ocean and climate modelling community. Achieving such a goal requires to work with high resolution models for the ocean and the atmosphere interacting freely and to run long-term and temporally homogeneous simulations with a realistic chronology. In agreement with this statement, we developed at Meteo-France / CNRM a Mediterranean Regional Climate System Model (RCSM) that includes high-resolution representation of the regional atmosphere, land surface, rivers and ocean. The various components are respectively ALADIN (50 km), ISBA (50 km), TRIP (50 km) and NEMO-MED8 (10 km). All the components are interactively coupled daily and a simulation over the period 1979-2012 has been performed using the atmosphere ERA-Interim reanalysis and the ocean NEMOVAR1° reanalysis as 3D lateral-boundary conditions. Spectral nudging technique is applied in the atmosphere. We first evaluate the ability of this model to simulate some of the observed WMDW formation events (air-sea flux, timing, water mass characteristics, deep water formation rate) thanks to the large observational efforts recently carried out to better

  3. Interannual and seasonal dynamics, and the age, of nonstructural carbohydrate pools in the stemwood of temperate trees across a climatic gradient in New England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richardson, A. D.; Carbone, M. S.; Czimczik, C. I.; Keenan, T. F.; Schaberg, P.; Xu, X.

    2011-12-01

    Like all plants, forest trees accumulate and store surplus mobile carbon (C) compounds as resources to be used to support future growth. This can be viewed as a bet-hedging strategy, providing reserves that the tree can draw on in times of stress-e.g., following disturbance, disease, or extreme climatic events. In the context of climate change, understanding factors influencing the availability of these stored C compounds to support growth and metabolism is essential for predicting the resilience of forests to environmental stress factors. We conducted this study to investigate the role of these stored C pools in the context ecosystem C balance at time scales from days to years. At quarterly intervals over a three year period, we monitored stemwood total nonstructural carbohydrate (TNC) concentrations of the dominant tree species of New England. Work was conducted at three sites along a climatic gradient: an oak-dominated transition hardwood forest (Harvard Forest), a maple-beech-birch northern hardwood forest (Bartlett Experimental Forest), and a spruce-fir forest (Howland Forest). We observed large differences among species both in TNC concentrations, and in how the TNC pool is partitioned to different compounds (starch, sucrose, glucose, fructose, raffinose, xylose and stachyose). Within a species, however, seasonal dynamics were remarkably similar across sites. The interannual variability in maximum TNC concentrations appears to be smaller than interannual variability in annual net ecosystem exchange of CO2. With an additional set of samples, we are using the bomb radiocarbon (14C) spike to estimate the average age of the sugars and starches in the TNC pool, and relating this to factors such as size, age, and recent growth rates of each tree. Initial results suggest that these TNC pools range in age from several years to several decades old. The average ages of starch and sugar pools are related, with the starches generally being older than sugars

  4. Inter-annual to inter-decadal streamflow variability in Quebec and Ontario in relation to dominant large-scale climate indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nalley, D.; Adamowski, J.; Khalil, B.; Biswas, A.

    2016-05-01

    The impacts of large-scale climate oscillations on hydrological systems and their variability have been documented in different parts of the world. Since hydroclimatic data are known to exhibit non-stationary characteristics, spectral analyses such as wavelet transforms are very useful in extracting time-frequency information from such data. As Canadian studies, particularly those of regions east of the Prairies, using wavelet transform-based methods to draw links between relevant climate indices [e.g., the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)] and streamflow variability are not common, this study aims to analyze such relationships for the southern regions of Quebec and Ontario. Monthly and annual streamflow data with a record length of 55 years were used to capture streamflow variability at intra-annual, inter-annual and inter-decadal scales. The continuous wavelet transform spectra of monthly streamflow data revealed consistent significant 6- and 12-month periodicities, which are likely associated with strong seasonality factors. Its annual counterparts showed four different significant periodicities: up to 4 years, 4-6 years, 6-8 years, and greater than 8 years - all of which occurred after the late 1960s/early 1970s. Wavelet coherence analyses show that the influence of ENSO and NAO at the inter-annual scale occurs at 2-6 year periodicities, and the influence of PDO occur at periodicities up to 8 years and exceeding 16 years. Correlations between these climate indices and streamflow were computed to determine the time delay of streamflow response to the influence of ENSO, NAO, and PDO. The lag times ranged from 6-48 months (for monthly data) and 1-4 years (for annual data). This research contributes to our understanding of streamflow variability over the southern parts of Quebec and Ontario, and the role of ENSO, NAO, and PDO phenomena on this variability. These relationships can

  5. Climate Change Decision Making in the Water User Community: Assessment Needs for Projections from Interannual to Multi-Decadal Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behar, D.; Adams, A.; Schneiderman, E.; Kaatz, L.

    2012-12-01

    Water managers are increasingly using climate science tools, including model output, in assessing the potential effects of climate change on their operations, infrastructure, and levels of service. The Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA), ten large metropolitan utilities providing drinking water to 43 million Americans, has developed relationships individually and collectively across the scientific, agency, and boundary organization communities in pursuit of an understanding of what the current science tells us about the threat of climate change and how to incorporate that understanding into planning. Many WUCA agencies, including those of the authors, have completed or are in the process of completing state-of-the-art assessments using climate model output, expert elicitation, and their own internal modeling tools. A WUCA initiative, Piloting Utility Modeling Applications for Climate Change (PUMA), is facilitating collaboration between five water utilities, four climate science consortiums, and a Modeling Advisory Committee in the preparation of climate change assessments. For WUCA members, and likely others in the adaptation community, the need is for "actionable science," a term WUCA began using in 2008 that was included as an objective in the recently released strategic plan for U.S. Global Change Research Program. Ultimately, assessments feed into existing utility planning processes that look into a future that ranges in scope from years to decades in order to provide guidance on adaptation measures that may be needed. This talk will use WUCA member experiences as case studies to zero in on utility needs for information at these scales, the form of data that best fits with our downstream models (hydrologic, planning), and on the challenges of planning in an atmosphere of uncertainty.

  6. Glacioclimatological study of perennial ice in the Fuji Ice Cave, Japan. Part 2. Interannual variation and relation to climate

    SciTech Connect

    Ohata, Tetsuo; Furukawa, Teruo; Osada, Kazuo )

    1994-08-01

    A glacioclimatological study of the interannual variation of mass of perennial ice in the Fuji Ice Cave at the foot of Mt. Fuji, in central Japan is presented. The cave is a 150-m-long lava tube located in a dense forest area at an altitude of 1120 m. It has a perennial floor ice of areas approximately 3000 m[sup 3] and mean thickness 2.8 m. Mean annual air temperature at the ground surface level is 8.4[degrees]C. Ice surface levels and air temperatures were measured 39 times from July 1984 to December 1992. Mean ice level showed a 15 cm increase from 1984 to 1989 and suddenly started to decrease from 1989 to 1992. In the increase stage, annual net balance (December to November) was similar at various points, but in the decreasing stage, the lowering of the level near the entrance was very large due to intense melting. Air temperature inside the cave at the end of the annual cycle showed a correlation to net balance of the corresponding year. Comparison of yearly net balance with meterological indices at ground level (winter and summer, annual mean air temperature and total precipitation; and number of days with strong precipitation) showed that net balance of a give year has a high correlation with the average winter air temperature anomaly of the preceding 4 yr. This is probably due to the high heat capacity of the cave system. 6 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs.

  7. Robust signals of future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by IPCC AR5 climate models: Role of seasonal cycle and interannual variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jayasankar, C. B.; Surendran, Sajani; Rajendran, Kavirajan

    2015-05-01

    Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) coupled global climate model Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 simulations are analyzed to derive robust signals of projected changes in Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and its variability. Models project clear future temperature increase but diverse changes in ISMR with substantial intermodel spread. Objective measures of interannual variability (IAV) yields nearly equal chance for future increase or decrease. This leads to discrepancy in quantifying changes in ISMR and variability. However, based primarily on the physical association between mean changes in ISMR and its IAV, and objective methods such as k-means clustering with Dunn's validity index, mean seasonal cycle, and reliability ensemble averaging, projections fall into distinct groups. Physically consistent groups of models with the highest reliability project future reduction in the frequency of light rainfall but increase in high to extreme rainfall and thereby future increase in ISMR by 0.74 ± 0.36 mm d-1, along with increased future IAV. These robust estimates of future changes are important for useful impact assessments.

  8. Enhanced interannual precipitation variability increases plant functional diversity that in turn ameliorates negative impact on productivity

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Although precipitation interannual variability is projected to increase due to climate change, effects of changes in precipitation variance have received considerable less attention than effects of changes in the mean state of climate. Interannual precipitation variability effects on functional dive...

  9. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of bud development as related to climate in two coexisting Mediterranean Quercus species.

    PubMed

    Alla, Arben Q; Camarero, J Julio; Montserrat-Martí, Gabriel

    2013-02-01

    In trees, bud development is driven by endogenous and exogenous factors such as species and climate, respectively. However, knowledge is scarce on how these factors drive changes in bud size across different time scales. The seasonal patterns of apical bud enlargement are related to primary and secondary growth in two coexisting Mediterranean oaks with contrasting leaf habit (Quercus ilex, evergreen; Quercus faginea, deciduous) over three years. In addition, the climatic factors driving changes in bud size of the two oak species were determined by correlating bud mass with climatic variables at different time scales (from 5 to 30 d) over a 15-year period. The maximum enlargement rate of buds was reached between late July and mid-August in both species. Moreover, apical bud size increased with minimum air temperatures during the period of maximum bud enlargement rates. The forecasted rising minimum air temperatures predicted by climatic models may affect bud size and consequently alter crown architecture differentially in sympatric Mediterranean oaks. However, the involvement of several drivers controlling the final size of buds makes it difficult to predict the changes in bud size as related to ongoing climate warming.

  10. NDVI indicated long-term interannual changes in vegetation activities and their responses to climatic and anthropogenic factors in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China.

    PubMed

    Wen, Zhaofei; Wu, Shengjun; Chen, Jilong; Lü, Mingquan

    2017-01-01

    Natural and social environmental changes in the China's Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR) have received worldwide attention. Identifying interannual changes in vegetation activities in the TGRR is an important task for assessing the impact these changes have on the local ecosystem. We used long-term (1982-2011) satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets and climatic and anthropogenic factors to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation activities in the TGRR, as well as their links to changes in temperature (TEM), precipitation (PRE), downward radiation (RAD), and anthropogenic activities. At the whole TGRR regional scale, a statistically significant overall uptrend in NDVI variations was observed in 1982-2011. More specifically, there were two distinct periods with different trends split by a breakpoint in 1991: NDVI first sharply increased prior to 1991, and then showed a relatively weak rate of increase after 1991. At the pixel scale, most parts of the TGRR experienced increasing NDVI before the 1990s but different trend change types after the 1990s: trends were positive in forests in the northeastern parts, but negative in farmland in southwest parts of the TGRR. The TEM warming trend was the main climate-related driver of uptrending NDVI variations pre-1990s, and decreasing PRE was the main climate factor (42%) influencing the mid-western farmland areas' NDVI variations post-1990s. We also found that anthropogenic factors such as population density, man-made ecological restoration, and urbanization have notable impacts on the TGRR's NDVI variations. For example, large overall trend slopes in NDVI were more likely to appear in TGRR regions with large fractions of ecological restoration within the last two decades. The findings of this study may help to build a better understanding of the mechanics of NDVI variations in the periods before and during TGDP construction for ongoing ecosystem monitoring and assessment in the

  11. Satellite-measured interannual variability of turbid river plumes off central-southern Chile: Spatial patterns and the influence of climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saldías, Gonzalo S.; Largier, John L.; Mendes, Renato; Pérez-Santos, Iván; Vargas, Cristian A.; Sobarzo, Marcus

    2016-08-01

    Ocean color imagery from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) onboard the Aqua platform is used to characterize the interannual variability of turbid river plumes off central-southern Chile. Emphasis is placed on the influence of climate fluctuations, namely El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). Additional satellite data on wind, boat-based hydrographic profiles, and regional climate indices are used to identify the influence of climate variability on the generation of anomalous turbid river plumes. The evolution of salinity at a coastal station on the 90 m isobath between the Itata and Biobío Rivers shows a freshwater surface layer with salinity < 32.5 and 5-10 m thick during major plume events in 2002, 2005 and 2006. Surface salinity minima are correlated with peaks in turbidy from the normalized water leaving radiance at 555 nm (nLw(555)), both representing turbid river plumes. EOF analysis reveals that major turbid plume events occurred primarily during warm phases of the ENSO and PDO, and negative phases of the AAO, when storm tracks are further north. Anomalously large turbid plumes extend long distances offshore (∼ 70-80 km), and individual plumes coalesce into a continuous plume along the coast that covers the entire continental shelf. Season-specific correlation analyses reveal an increased influence of the AAO on river plumes south of Punta Lavapié in spring-summer (negative correlation). North of this major cape, ENSO and PDO indices have a dominant influence on plumes with positive correlations with the nLw(555) signal in winter (and negative in summer). We discuss the biogeochemical implications of plume events and the importance of long-term and high-resolution ocean color observations for studying the temporal evolution of river plumes.

  12. The impacts of interannual climate variability and agricultural inputs on water footprint of crop production in an irrigation district of China.

    PubMed

    Sun, Shikun; Wu, Pute; Wang, Yubao; Zhao, Xining; Liu, Jing; Zhang, Xiaohong

    2013-02-01

    Irrigation plays an increasing important role in agriculture of China. The assessment of water resources utilization during agricultural production process will contribute to improving agricultural water management practices for the irrigation districts. The water footprint provides a new approach to assessing the agricultural water utilization. The present paper put forward a modified calculation method to quantify the water footprint of crop. On this basis, this paper calculated the water footprint of major crop in Hetao irrigation district, China. Then, it evaluated the influencing factors that caused the variability of crop water footprint during the study period. Results showed that: 1) the annual average water footprint of integrated-crop production in Hetao irrigation district was 3.91 m(3)kg(-1) (90.91% blue water and 9.09% green water). The crop production in the Hetao irrigation district mainly relies on blue water; 2) under the integrated influences of interannual climate variability and variation of agricultural inputs, the water footprint of integrated-crop production displayed a decreasing trend; 3) the contribution rate of the climatic factors to the variation of water footprint was only -6.90%, while the total contribution rate of the agricultural inputs factors was -84.31%. The results suggest that the water footprint of crop mainly depends on agricultural management rather than the regional climate and its variation. The results indicated that the water footprint of a crop could be controlled at a reasonable level by better management of all agricultural inputs and the improvement of water use efficiency in agriculture. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Optimal selection of MULTI-model downscaled ensembles for interannual and seasonal climate prediction in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bejranonda, W.; Koch, M.

    2010-12-01

    Because of the imminent threat of the water resources of the eastern seaboard of Thailand, a climate impact study has been carried out there. To that avail, a hydrological watershed model is being used to simulate the future water availability in the wake of possible climate change in the region. The hydrological model is forced by predictions from global climate models (GCMs) that are to be downscaled in an appropriate manner. The challenge at that stage of the climate impact analysis lies then the in the choice of the best GCM and the (statistical) downscaling method. In this study the selection of coarse grid resolution output of the GCMs, transferring information to the fine grid of local climate-hydrology is achieved by cross-correlation and multiple linear regression using meteorological data in the eastern seaboard of Thailand observed between 1970-1999. The grids of 20 atmosphere/ocean global climate models (AOGCM), covering latitude 12.5-15.0 N and longitude 100.0-102.5 E were examined using the Climate-Change Scenario Generator (SCENGEN). With that tool the model efficiency of the prediction of daily precipitation and mean temperature was calculated by comparing the 1980-1999 ECMWF reanalysis predictions with the observed data during that time period. The root means square errors of the predictions were considered and ranked to select the top 5 models, namely, BCCR-BCM2.0, GISS-ER, ECHO-G, ECHAM5/MPI-OM and PCM. The daily time-series of 338 predictors in 9 runs of the 5 selected models were gathered from the CMIP3 multi-model database. Monthly time-serial cross-correlations between the climate predictors and the meteorological measurements from 25 rainfall, 4 minimum and maximum temperature, 4 humidity and 2 solar radiation stations in the study area were then computed and ranked. Using the ranked predictors, a multiple-linear regression model (downscaling transfer model) to forecast the local climate was set up. To improve the prediction power of this

  14. Climatically induced interannual variability in aboveground production in forest-tundra and northern taiga of central Siberia.

    PubMed

    Knorre, Anastasia A; Kirdyanov, Alexander V; Vaganov, Eugene A

    2006-02-01

    To investigate the variability of primary production of boreal forest ecosystems under the current climatic changes, we compared the dynamics of annual increments and productivity of the main components of plant community (trees, shrubs, mosses) at three sites in the north of Siberia (Russia). Annual radial growth of trees and shrubs was mostly defined by summer temperature regime (positive correlation), but climatic response of woody plants was species specific and depends on local conditions. Dynamics of annual increments of mosses were opposite to tree growth. The difference in climatic response of the different vegetation components of the forest ecosystems indicates that these components seem to be adapted to use climatic conditions during the short and severe northern summer, and decreasing in annual production of one component is usually combined with the increase of other component productivity. Average productivity in the northern forest ecosystems varies from 0.05 to 0.14 t ha(-1) year(-1) for trees, from 0.05 to 0.18 t ha(-1) year(-1) for shrubs and from 0.54 to 0.66 t ha(-1) year(-1) for mosses. Higher values of tree productivity combined with lower annual moss productivity were found in sites in northern taiga in comparison with forest-tundra. Different tendencies in the productivity of the dominant species from each vegetation level (trees, shrubs, mosses) were indicated for the last 10 years studied (1990-1999): while productivity of mosses is increasing, productivity of trees is decreasing, but there is no obvious trend in the productivity of shrubs. Our results show that in the long term, the main contribution to changes in annual biomass productivity in forest-tundra and northern taiga ecosystems under the predicted climatic changes will be determined by living ground cover.

  15. Climatic Predictors of the Intra- and Inter-Annual Distributions of Plague Cases in New Mexico Based on 29 Years of Animal-Based Surveillance Data

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Heidi E.; Ettestad, Paul; Reynolds, Pamela J.; Brown, Ted L.; Hatton, Elizabeth S.; Holmes, Jennifer L.; Glass, Gregory E.; Gage, Kenneth L.; Eisen, Rebecca J.

    2010-01-01

    Within the United States, the majority of human plague cases are reported from New Mexico. We describe climatic factors involved in intra- and inter-annual plague dynamics using animal-based surveillance data from that state. Unlike the clear seasonal pattern observed at lower elevations, cases occur randomly throughout the year at higher elevations. Increasing elevation corresponded with delayed mean time in case presentation. Using local meteorological data (previous year mean annual precipitation, total degrees over 27°C 3 years before and maximum winter temperatures 4 years before) we built a time-series model predicting annual case load that explained 75% of the variance in pet cases between years. Moreover, we found a significant correlation with observed annual human cases and predicted pet cases. Because covariates were time-lagged by at least 1 year, intensity of case loads can be predicted in advance of a plague season. Understanding associations between environmental and meteorological factors can be useful for anticipating future disease trends. PMID:20065002

  16. Inter-annual variability of urolithiasis epidemic from semi-arid part of Deccan Volcanic Province, India: climatic and hydrogeochemical perspectives.

    PubMed

    Kale, Sanjay S; Ghole, Vikram Shantaram; Pawar, N J; Jagtap, Deepak V

    2014-01-01

    Semi-arid Karha basin from Deccan Volcanic Province, India was investigated for inter-annual variability of urolithiasis epidemic. The number of reported urolith patient, weather station data and groundwater quality results was used to assess impact of geoenvironment on urolithiasis. Data of 7081 urolith patient were processed for epidemiological study. Gender class, age group, year-wise cases and urolith type were studied in epidemiology. Rainfall, temperature, pan evaporation and sunshine hours were used to correlate urolithiasis. Further, average values of groundwater parameters were correlated with the number of urolith episodes. A total of 52 urolith samples were collected from hospitals and analysed using FTIR technique to identify dominant urolith type in study area. Result shows that male population is more prone, age group of 20-40 is more susceptible and calcium oxalate uroliths are dominant in study area. Year-wise distribution revealed that there is steady increase in urolithiasis with inflation in drought years. In climatic parameters, hot days are significantly correlated with urolithiasis. In groundwater quality, EC, Na and F are convincingly correlated with urolith patients, which concludes the strong relation between geo-environment and urolithiasis.

  17. Interannual variability in associations between seasonal climate, weather, and extremes: wintertime temperature over the Southwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guirguis, Kristen; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.

    2015-12-01

    Temperature variability in the Southwest US is investigated using skew-normal probability distribution functions (SN PDFs) fitted to observed wintertime daily maximum temperature records. These PDFs vary significantly between years, with important geographical differences in the relationship between the central tendency and tails, revealing differing linkages between weather and climate. The warmest and coldest extremes do not necessarily follow the distribution center. In some regions one tail of the distribution shows more variability than does the other. For example, in California the cold tail is more variable while the warm tail remains relatively stable, so warm years are associated with fewer cold extremes but not necessarily more warm extremes. The opposite relationship is seen in the Great Plains. Changes in temperature PDFs are conditioned by different phases of El Niño-La Niña (ENSO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). In the Southern Great Plains, La Niña and/or negative PDO are associated with generally warmer conditions. However, in terms of extremes, while the warm tails become thicker and longer, the cool tails are not impacted—extremely warm days become more frequent but extremely cool days are not less frequent. In contrast, in coastal California, La Niña or negative PDO bring generally cooler conditions with more/stronger cold extremes but the warm extreme probability is not significantly affected. These results could have implications for global warming. If a rigid shift of the whole range occurs, then warm years are not necessarily a good analogue for a warmer climate. If global warming instead brings regional changes more aligned with a preferred state of dominant climate variability modes, then we may see asymmetric changes in the tails of local temperature PDFs.

  18. Divergence maintained by climatic selection despite recurrent gene flow: a case study of Castanopsis carlesii (Fagaceae).

    PubMed

    Sun, Ye; Surget-Groba, Yann; Gao, Shaoxiong

    2016-09-01

    Local adaptation to different environments has the potential to maintain divergence between populations despite recurrent gene flow and is an important driver for generating biological diversity. In this study, we investigate the role of adaptation in the maintenance of two parapatric varieties of a forest tree. We used sequence variation of chloroplastic DNA and restriction site-associated DNA to investigate the genetic structure of two varieties of Castanopsis carlesii in subtropical China and relate it to climatic variation. We used niche reconstruction methods to investigate niche differentiation between the two varieties and to estimate the past distribution of this species. A deep divergence was observed between the two varieties, but evidence of introgression and genetic admixture was detected in two phenotypically and geographically intermediate populations. Niche reconstruction suggests that the distribution of the two varieties was disjunct during periods of global cooling and that the two varieties occupy significantly different niches. The genetic structure was mainly driven by environmental factors, and 13 outlier loci under divergent selection were correlated with climatic variation. These results suggest that the two varieties evolved in allopatry and came back into secondary contact after the last glacial maximum and that they are an evolutionary example of divergence maintained by climatic selection despite recurrent gene flow.

  19. Evaluating and Quantifying the Climate-Driven Interannual Variability in Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI3g) at Global Scales

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zeng, Fanwei; Collatz, George James; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Ivanoff, Alvaro

    2013-01-01

    Satellite observations of surface reflected solar radiation contain informationabout variability in the absorption of solar radiation by vegetation. Understanding thecauses of variability is important for models that use these data to drive land surface fluxesor for benchmarking prognostic vegetation models. Here we evaluated the interannualvariability in the new 30.5-year long global satellite-derived surface reflectance index data,Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies normalized difference vegetation index(GIMMS NDVI3g). Pearsons correlation and multiple linear stepwise regression analyseswere applied to quantify the NDVI interannual variability driven by climate anomalies, andto evaluate the effects of potential interference (snow, aerosols and clouds) on the NDVIsignal. We found ecologically plausible strong controls on NDVI variability by antecedent precipitation and current monthly temperature with distinct spatial patterns. Precipitation correlations were strongest for temperate to tropical water limited herbaceous systemswhere in some regions and seasons 40 of the NDVI variance could be explained byprecipitation anomalies. Temperature correlations were strongest in northern mid- to-high-latitudes in the spring and early summer where up to 70 of the NDVI variance was explained by temperature anomalies. We find that, in western and central North America,winter-spring precipitation determines early summer growth while more recent precipitation controls NDVI variability in late summer. In contrast, current or prior wetseason precipitation anomalies were correlated with all months of NDVI in sub-tropical herbaceous vegetation. Snow, aerosols and clouds as well as unexplained phenomena still account for part of the NDVI variance despite corrections. Nevertheless, this study demonstrates that GIMMS NDVI3g represents real responses of vegetation to climate variability that are useful for global models.

  20. Study of seasonal climatology and interannual variability over India and its subregions using a regional climate model (RegCM3)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maharana, P.; Dimri, A. P.

    2014-06-01

    The temporal and spatial variability of the various meteorological parameters over India and its different subregions is high. The Indian subcontinent is surrounded by the complex Himalayan topography in north and the vast oceans in the east, west and south. Such distributions have dominant influence over its climate and thus make the study more complex and challenging. In the present study, the climatology and interannual variability of basic meteorological fields over India and its six homogeneous monsoon subregions (as defined by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) for all the four meteorological seasons) are analysed using the Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3). A 22-year (1980-2001) simulation with RegCM3 is carried out to develop such understanding. The National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research, US (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis 2 (NNRP2) is used as the initial and lateral boundary conditions. The main seasonal features and their variability are represented in model simulation. The temporal variation of precipitation, i.e., the mean annual cycle, is captured over complete India and its homogenous monsoon subregions. The model captured the contribution of seasonal precipitation to the total annual precipitation over India. The model showed variation in the precipitation contribution for some subregions to the total and seasonal precipitation over India. The correlation coefficient (CC) and difference between the coefficient of variation between model fields and the corresponding observations in percentage (COV) is calculated and compared. In most of the cases, the model could represent the magnitude but not the variability. The model processes are found to be more important than in the corresponding observations defining the variability. The model performs quite well over India in capturing the climatology and the meteorological process. The model shows good skills over the relevant subregions during a

  1. Vegetation dynamics and climate seasonality jointly control the interannual catchment water balance in the Loess Plateau under the Budyko framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ning, Tingting; Li, Zhi; Liu, Wenzhao

    2017-03-01

    Within the Budyko framework, the controlling parameter (ω in the Fu equation) is widely considered to represent landscape conditions in terms of vegetation coverage (M); however, some qualitative studies have concluded that climate seasonality (S) should be incorporated in ω. Here, we discuss the relationship between ω, M, and S, and further develop an empirical equation so that the contributions from M to actual annual evapotranspiration (ET) can be determined more accurately. Taking 13 catchments in the Loess Plateau as examples, ω was found to be well correlated with M and S. The developed empirical formula for ω calculations at the annual scale performed well for estimating ET by the cross-validation approach. By combining the Budyko framework with the semi-empirical formula, the contributions of changes in ω to ET variations were further decomposed as those of M and S. Results showed that the contributions of S to ET changes ranged from 0.1 to 74.8 % (absolute values). Therefore, the impacts of climate seasonality on ET cannot be ignored, otherwise the contribution of M to ET changes will be estimated with a large error. The developed empirical formula between ω, M, and S provides an effective method to separate the contributions of M and S to ET changes.

  2. Masking of interannual climate proxy signals by residual tropical cyclone rainwater: Evidence and challenges for low-latitude speleothem paleoclimatology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frappier, Amy Benoit

    2013-09-01

    The anomalously low oxygen isotope ratio (δ18O values) of tropical cyclone rainfall can transfer proxy information about past tropical cyclone activity to stalagmite oxygen isotope records. Isotopically distinct stormwater reaches the growing crystal surface as a coherent slug, or after attenuation by mixing with isotopically normal vadose groundwaters. A high-resolution micromilled stalagmite stable isotope record from Belize shows that residual tropical cyclone water from Hurricane Mitch masked the oxygen isotope record of a major El Niño event. On decadal time scales, measured δ18O values are affected by changes in local tropical cyclone frequency. Despite the tropical cyclone masking effect, the structure of the "missing" El Niño event is preserved in the ATM-7 carbon isotope ratios (δ13C values). In tropical cyclone-prone regions, the fidelity of stalagmite oxygen isotope proxy data to recording background climate signals is modulated by temporal variations in local tropical cyclone rainfall, and the sensitivity of individual stalagmites to tropical cyclone masking varies with hydrology. Speleothem δ13C values, unaffected by tropical cyclones, can preserve the underlying structure of climatic variability. For low-latitude speleothems with C-O isotope covariance, intervals in which the δ18O values are significantly lower than δ13C values predict may indicate periods when local tropical cyclone masking of isotope-derived precipitation records is enhanced by greater infiltration of tropical cyclone rain. The temporal structure in stalagmite C-O isotope covariance has paleoenvironmental meaning that may be revealed by exploring factors associated with independent behavior in each isotope ratio, respectively. Tropical cyclone masking presents new challenges to paleoclimatology and a source of hypotheses for paleotempestology.

  3. Quantifying the effect of interannual ocean variability on the attribution of extreme climate events to human influence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Risser, Mark D.; Stone, Dáithí A.; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Wehner, Michael F.; Angélil, Oliver

    2017-01-01

    In recent years, the climate change research community has become highly interested in describing the anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, commonly termed "event attribution." Limitations in the observational record and in computational resources motivate the use of uncoupled, atmosphere/land-only climate models with prescribed ocean conditions run over a short period, leading up to and including an event of interest. In this approach, large ensembles of high-resolution simulations can be generated under factual observed conditions and counterfactual conditions that might have been observed in the absence of human interference; these can be used to estimate the change in probability of the given event due to anthropogenic influence. However, using a prescribed ocean state ignores the possibility that estimates of attributable risk might be a function of the ocean state. Thus, the uncertainty in attributable risk is likely underestimated, implying an over-confidence in anthropogenic influence. In this work, we estimate the year-to-year variability in calculations of the anthropogenic contribution to extreme weather based on large ensembles of atmospheric model simulations. Our results both quantify the magnitude of year-to-year variability and categorize the degree to which conclusions of attributable risk are qualitatively affected. The methodology is illustrated by exploring extreme temperature and precipitation events for the northwest coast of South America and northern-central Siberia; we also provides results for regions around the globe. While it remains preferable to perform a full multi-year analysis, the results presented here can serve as an indication of where and when attribution researchers should be concerned about the use of atmosphere-only simulations.

  4. Effects of Interannual Climate Variability on Water Availability and Productivity in Capoeira and Crops Under Traditional and Alternative Shifting Cultivation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Guild, Liane S.; Sa, Tatiana D. A.; Carvalho, Claudio J. R.; Potter, Christopher S.; Wickel, Albert J.; Brienza, Silvio, Jr.; Kato, Maria doSocorro A.; Kato, Osvaldo; Brass, James (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Regenerating forests play an important role in long-term carbon sequestration and sustainable landuse as they act as potentially important carbon and nutrient sinks during the shifting agriculture fallow period. The long-term functioning of capoeira. is increasingly threatened by a shortening fallow period during shifting cultivation due to demographic pressures and associated increased vulnerability to severe climatic events. Declining productivity and functioning of fallow forests of shifting cultivation combined with progressive loss of nutrients by successive burning and cropping activities has resulted in declining agricultural productivity. In addition to the effects of intense land use practices, droughts associated with El Nino events are becoming more frequent and severe in moist tropical forests and negative effects on capoeira productivity could be considerable. In Igarape-Acu (near Belem, Para), we hypothesize that experimental alternative landuse/clearing practices (mulching and fallow vegetation improvement by planting with fast-growing leguminous tree species) may make capoeira and agriculture more resilient to the effects of agricultural pressures and drought through (1) increased biomass, soil organic matter and associated increase in soil water storage, and nutrient retention and (2) greater rooting depth of trees planted for fallow improvement. This experimental practice (moto mechanized chop-and-mulch with fallow improvement) has resulted increased soil moisture during the cropping phase, reduced loss of nutrients and organic matter, and higher rates of secondary-forest biomass accumulation. We present preliminary data on water relations during the dry season of 2001 in capoeira and crops for both traditional slash-and-burn and alternative chop-and-mulch practices. These data will be used to test IKONOS data for the detection of moisture status differences. The principal goal of the research is to determine the extent to which capoeira and

  5. Effects of Interannual Climate Variability on Water Availability and Productivity in Capoeira and Crops Under Traditional and Alternative Shifting Cultivation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Guild, Liane S.; Sa, Tatiana D. A.; Carvalho, Claudio J. R.; Potter, Christopher S.; Wickel, Albert J.; Brienza, Silvio, Jr.; Kato, Maria doSocorro A.; Kato, Osvaldo; Brass, James (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Regenerating forests play an important role in long-term carbon sequestration and sustainable landuse as they act as potentially important carbon and nutrient sinks during the shifting agriculture fallow period. The long-term functioning of capoeira. is increasingly threatened by a shortening fallow period during shifting cultivation due to demographic pressures and associated increased vulnerability to severe climatic events. Declining productivity and functioning of fallow forests of shifting cultivation combined with progressive loss of nutrients by successive burning and cropping activities has resulted in declining agricultural productivity. In addition to the effects of intense land use practices, droughts associated with El Nino events are becoming more frequent and severe in moist tropical forests and negative effects on capoeira productivity could be considerable. In Igarape-Acu (near Belem, Para), we hypothesize that experimental alternative landuse/clearing practices (mulching and fallow vegetation improvement by planting with fast-growing leguminous tree species) may make capoeira and agriculture more resilient to the effects of agricultural pressures and drought through (1) increased biomass, soil organic matter and associated increase in soil water storage, and nutrient retention and (2) greater rooting depth of trees planted for fallow improvement. This experimental practice (moto mechanized chop-and-mulch with fallow improvement) has resulted increased soil moisture during the cropping phase, reduced loss of nutrients and organic matter, and higher rates of secondary-forest biomass accumulation. We present preliminary data on water relations during the dry season of 2001 in capoeira and crops for both traditional slash-and-burn and alternative chop-and-mulch practices. These data will be used to test IKONOS data for the detection of moisture status differences. The principal goal of the research is to determine the extent to which capoeira and

  6. Influence of soil C stocks and interannual climatic variability on the CO2 and CH4 exchange of maize cultivated on mineral and organic soils in NE Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pohl, Madlen; Hagemann, Ulrike; Hoffmann, Mathias; Giebels, Michael; Albiac-Borraz, Elisa; Sommer, Michael; Augustin, Jürgen

    2014-05-01

    Due to its glacially influenced genesis and land use history, the soils of the Great Plain Region of NE-Germany show large differences in groundwater levels and soil carbon (C) stocks over short distances. Although generally featuring a rather dry climate, trace gas exchange at individual sites may be influenced by i) interannual climatic variability, particularly with respect to precipitation; as well as by ii) variability of soil C stocks. However, it is still unclear how these factors affect fluxes of CO2 and CH4, and if there is any positive or negative feedback on the C source or sink function of different soil types. We present measured and modeled CO2 and CH4 fluxes of minerally fertilized grain maize for three sites located near Paulinenaue, within the so-called Rhin-Havelluch, a shallow and drained paludification mire complex in NE Germany. The sites are characterized by a distinct gradient of 0-1 m soil organic C stocks: i) Arenosol (AR: mineral soil/distant groundwater; 8 000 g C m-2), ii) Gleysol (GL: organic soil/groundwater-dependent; 35 000 g C m-2), and iii) Histosol (HS: organic soil/near groundwater; 45 000 g C m-2). CO2 flux measurements of ecosystem respiration (Reco), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary production (GPP; calculated as difference between NEE and Reco) were conducted every four weeks using a flow-through non-steady-state closed chamber system. Measurement gaps of Reco and NEE were filled by using temperature or radiation-based models, respectively. CH4 fluxes were measured bi-weekly using a static closed chamber system with interval sampling, with gap filling via linear interpolation. Cumulated fluxes of CO2-C (Reco, GPP, NEE) and CH4-C were calculated for a period of four consecutive years (2007-2010). The intensity of CO2-C fluxes increased with growing soil organic C stocks (AR < GL < HS). Mean annual values of the years 2008-2010 for Reco ranged between 1 500 g C m-2 and 2 000 g C m-2; annual GPP fluxes ranged from

  7. Detection of Interannual Climate Variability in Secondary Forests and Crops Under Traditional and Alternative Shifting Cultivation Using Ikonos Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sa, T.; Guild, L.; Carvalho, C.; Wickel, A.; Brienza, S.; Kato, M.; Kato, O.; Leibs, C.

    2004-12-01

    Regenerating forests play an important role in long-term carbon sequestration and sustainable landuse as they act as potentially important carbon and nutrient sinks during the shifting agriculture fallow period. The long-term functioning of secondary forests (capoeira) is increasingly threatened by a shortening fallow period during shifting cultivation due to demographic pressures and associated increased vulnerability to severe climatic events. Declining productivity and functioning of fallow forests of shifting cultivation combined with progressive loss of nutrients by successive burning and cropping activities has resulted in declining agricultural productivity. In addition to the effects of intense land use practices, droughts associated with El Nino events are becoming more frequent and severe in moist tropical forests and negative effects on capoeira productivity could be considerable. The principal goal of the research is to determine the extent to which capoeira and agricultural fields are susceptible to extreme climate events (drought) under contrasting landuse/clearing practices. In Igarape-Açu (near Belem, Para), we hypothesize that experimental alternative landuse/clearing practices (mulching) may make capoeira and crops more resilient to the effects of agricultural pressures and drought through increased biomass, soil organic matter and associated increase in soil water storage, and nutrient retention. This experimental practice (mechanized chop-and-mulch) has resulted in increased soil moisture during the cropping phase, reduced loss of nutrients and organic matter, and higher rates of secondary-forest biomass accumulation. This project aims to measure water availability and it's relation to secondary forest and crop productivity in the Brazilian Amazon. We have conducted field efforts during two dry seasons (August-December). Field data on water relations were collected during the dry season of 2001 and 2002 in capoeira and crops for both

  8. Interannual to Decadal Variability in Climate and the Glacier Mass Balance in Washington, Western Canada, and Alaska*.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bitz, C. M.; Battisti, D. S.

    1999-11-01

    The authors examine the net winter, summer, and annual mass balance of six glaciers along the northwest coast of North America, extending from Washington State to Alaska. The net winter (NWB) and net annual (NAB) mass balance anomalies for the maritime glaciers in the southern group, located in Washington and British Columbia, are shown to be positively correlated with local precipitation anomalies and storminess (defined as the rms of high-passed 500-mb geopotential anomalies) and weakly and negatively correlated with local temperature anomalies. The NWB and NAB of the maritime Wolverine glacier in Alaska are also positively correlated with local precipitation, but they are positively correlated with local winter temperature and negatively correlated with local storminess. Hence, anomalies in mass balance at Wolverine result mainly from the change in moisture that is being advected into the region by anomalies in the averaged wintertime circulation rather than from a change in storminess. The patterns of the wintertime 500-mb circulation and storminess anomalies associated with years of high NWB in the southern glacier group are similar to those associated with low NWB years at the Wolverine glacier, and vice versa.The decadal ENSO-like climate phenomenon discussed by Zhang et al. has a large impact on the NWB and NAB of these maritime glaciers, accounting for up to 35% of the variance in NWB. The 500-mb circulation and storminess anomalies associated with this decadal ENSO-like mode resemble the Pacific-North American pattern, as do 500-mb composites of years of extreme NWB of South Cascade glacier in Washington and of Wolverine glacier in Alaska. Hence, the decadal ENSO-like mode affects precipitation in a crucial way for the NWB of these glaciers. Specifically, the decadal ENSO-like phenomenon strongly affects the storminess over British Columbia and Washington and the moisture transported by the seasonally averaged circulation into maritime Alaska. In contrast

  9. A unifying view of climate change in the Sahel linking intra-seasonal, interannual and longer time scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giannini, A.; Salack, S.; Lodoun, T.; Ali, A.; Gaye, A. T.; Ndiaye, O.

    2013-06-01

    We propose a re-interpretation of the oceanic influence on the climate of the African Sahel that is consistent across observations, 20th century simulations and 21st century projections, and that resolves the uncertainty in projections of precipitation change in this region: continued warming of the global tropical oceans increases the threshold for convection, potentially drying tropical land, but this ‘upped ante’ can be met if sufficient moisture is supplied in monsoon flow. In this framework, the reversal to warming of the subtropical North Atlantic, which is now out-pacing warming of the global tropical oceans, provides that moisture, and explains the partial recovery in precipitation since persistent drought in the 1970s and 1980s. We find this recovery to result from increases in daily rainfall intensity, rather than in frequency, most evidently so in Senegal, the westernmost among the three Sahelian countries analyzed. Continuation of these observed trends is consistent with projections for an overall wetter Sahel, but more variable precipitation on all time scales, from intra-seasonal to multi-decadal.

  10. Interannual Variability of Human Plague Occurrence in the Western United States Explained by Tropical and North Pacific Ocean Climate Variability

    PubMed Central

    Ari, Tamara Ben; Gershunov, Alexander; Tristan, Rouyer; Cazelles, Bernard; Gage, Kenneth; Stenseth, Nils C.

    2010-01-01

    Plague is a vector-borne, highly virulent zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. It persists in nature through transmission between its hosts (wild rodents) and vectors (fleas). During epizootics, the disease expands and spills over to other host species such as humans living in or close to affected areas. Here, we investigate the effect of large-scale climate variability on the dynamics of human plague in the western United States using a 56-year time series of plague reports (1950–2005). We found that El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation in combination affect the dynamics of human plague over the western United States. The underlying mechanism could involve changes in precipitation and temperatures that impact both hosts and vectors. It is suggested that snow also may play a key role, possibly through its effects on summer soil moisture, which is known to be instrumental for flea survival and development and sustained growth of vegetation for rodents. PMID:20810830

  11. Interannual variability of human plague occurrence in the Western United States explained by tropical and North Pacific Ocean climate variability.

    PubMed

    Ari, Tamara Ben; Gershunov, Alexander; Tristan, Rouyer; Cazelles, Bernard; Gage, Kenneth; Stenseth, Nils C

    2010-09-01

    Plague is a vector-borne, highly virulent zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. It persists in nature through transmission between its hosts (wild rodents) and vectors (fleas). During epizootics, the disease expands and spills over to other host species such as humans living in or close to affected areas. Here, we investigate the effect of large-scale climate variability on the dynamics of human plague in the western United States using a 56-year time series of plague reports (1950-2005). We found that El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation in combination affect the dynamics of human plague over the western United States. The underlying mechanism could involve changes in precipitation and temperatures that impact both hosts and vectors. It is suggested that snow also may play a key role, possibly through its effects on summer soil moisture, which is known to be instrumental for flea survival and development and sustained growth of vegetation for rodents.

  12. Use of color maps and wavelet coherence to discern seasonal and interannual climate influences on streamflow variability in northern catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carey, Sean K.; Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Buttle, Jim; Laudon, Hjalmar; McDonnell, Jeff; McGuire, Kevin; Seibert, Jan; Soulsby, Chris; Shanley, Jamie

    2013-10-01

    The higher midlatitudes of the northern hemisphere are particularly sensitive to change due to the important role the 0°C isotherm plays in the phase of precipitation and intermediate storage as snow. An international intercatchment comparison program called North-Watch seeks to improve our understanding of the sensitivity of northern catchments to change by examining their hydrological and biogeochemical variability and response. Here eight North-Watch catchments located in Sweden (Krycklan), Scotland (Girnock and Strontian), the United States (Sleepers River, Hubbard Brook, and HJ Andrews), and Canada (Dorset and Wolf Creek) with 10 continuous years of daily precipitation and runoff data were selected to assess daily to seasonal coupling of precipitation (P) and runoff (Q) using wavelet coherency, and to explore the patterns and scales of variability in streamflow using color maps. Wavelet coherency revealed that P and Q were decoupled in catchments with cold winters, yet were strongly coupled during and immediately following the spring snowmelt freshet. In all catchments, coupling at shorter time scales occurred during wet periods when the catchment was responsive and storage deficits were small. At longer time scales, coupling reflected coherence between seasonal cycles, being enhanced at sites with enhanced seasonality in P. Color maps were applied as an alternative method to identify patterns and scales of flow variability. Seasonal versus transient flow variability was identified along with the persistence of that variability on influencing the flow regime. While exploratory in nature, this intercomparison exercise highlights the importance of climate and the 0°C isotherm on the functioning of northern catchments.

  13. Interannual to decadal variability in a control experiment using MIROC4 - a high-resolution AOGCM for the near-term climate prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakamoto, Takashi T.; Komuro, Yoshiki; Ishii, Masayoshi; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Hasegawa, Akira; Shiogama, Hideo; Toyoda, Takahiro; Mori, Masato; Kimoto, Masahide

    2010-05-01

    Preliminary results, especially mean climate and interannual to decadal variability, in a general circulation climate model, Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) version 4, are presented. The model is developed by the Center for Climate System Research (CCSR), the University of Tokyo; National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES); and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC). MIROC4 is an updated model from the previous version MIROC3_hires, which was used to contribute to the IPCC AR4. Most of the model components are the same as MIROC3_hires, but the atmospheric component is changed to T213 spectrum model from T106 one to inform adaptation policies for near-term climate changes. The ocean component is the same as that used in MIROC3_hires, whose horizontal resolution is 0.28125° zonally and 0.1875° meridionally, while the latitudinal range where the Gent-McWilliams (GM) parameterization is applied is changed in order to improve the climatological distribution of SST. The other components, sea ice, land surface process, and river routing models, are also same as the previous model. To obtain the radiative balance, parameters associated with radiation, clouds, and aerosols are tuned. Using this model, spin-up and control experiments (120 years) under the condition of year 1950 without flux adjustment were conducted. Globally averaged 2-m temperature (T2) and SST are not drifted, and biases in the SST field, typically warm bias in the high-latitudes and cold bias in the low- and mid-latitudes, are reduced in MIROC4, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Associated with the reduction of the warm SST bias in the high-latitudes, sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere becomes thicker in MIROC4 than MIROC3_hires. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is relatively weak in MIROC4, and mean volume transport of the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) is 12-13 Sv (Sv≡106 m3/s), which is 1-2 Sv weaker than that

  14. Interannual climate variability and spatially heterogeneous improvement of agricultural management impede detection of a decreasing trend in nitrate pollution in an agricultural catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fovet, Ophélie; Dupas, Rémi; Durand, Patrick; Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal; Gruau, Gérard; Hamon, Yannick; Petitjean, Patrice

    2016-04-01

    Despite widespread implementation of the nitrate directive in the European Union since the 1990s, the impact on nitrate concentration in rivers is limited (Bouraoui and Grizzetti, 2011). To assess whether this lack of response is due to the long time lags of nitrate transfer or to inadequate programs of measure, long term river and groundwater monitoring data are necessary. This study analyses 15 years of daily nitrate concentration data at the outlet of an intensively farmed catchment in Western France (Kervidy-Naizin, 5 km²) and quarterly nitrate concentration data in the groundwater of two hillslopes equipped with piezometers (Kerroland and Gueriniec) within the same catchment. In this catchment groundwater contribution to annual stream flow is dominant. The objectives of this study were to i) disentangle the influence of interannual climate variability and improvement of agricultural practices (i.e. reduction in N surplus) in the stream chemistry and ii) discuss the reasons for slow catchment recovery from nitrate pollution by comparing trends in groundwater and stream concentrations. Analysis of stream data showed that flow-weighted mean annual concentration at the outlet of the Kervidy-Naizin catchment has decreased by 1.2 mg NO3- l-1 yr-1 from 1999 to 2015. This decrease was slow but significant (p value < 0.01) even though interannual climate variability (i.e. annual cumulated runoff) added noise to the signal: i) deviation in the linear model of nitrate decrease with time was negatively correlated with annual runoff (r = -0.54, p < 0.01) and ii) local minimums in the nitrate time series were coincident with local maximums in the annual runoff. Thus high runoff during wet years led to dilution of the nitrate originating from groundwater, which added variability to the signal of linear decrease in stream concentration. Analysis of groundwater data showed a significant and sharp decrease in nitrate concentration in the Kerroland piezometer transect (4.0 mg

  15. Interannual variations in atmospheric mass over liquid water oceans, continents, and sea-ice-covered arctic regions and their possible impacts on the boreal winter climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guan, Zhaoyong; Zhang, Qian; Li, Minggang

    2015-12-01

    Using reanalysis data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research, ERA-interim, and Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature for the period of 1979-2012, the variations in atmospheric mass (AM) over liquid water oceans, continents, and sea-ice-covered Arctic regions during boreal winter are investigated. It is found that AM may migrate in a compensatory manner among these three types of surfaces on interannual time scales. There are two pairs of strong antiphase relations. One lies in a zonal orientation between the Eurasian continent and the midlatitude Pacific (referred to as Eurasian continent/Pacific antiphase relation) and exhibits a teleconnection pattern characterized by two strong correlation centers, one over Eurasia and one over the North Pacific. The other antiphase AM relation, referred to as ocean/ice-covered Arctic antiphase relation (OIAR), exhibits a meridional orientation between the ice-covered Arctic and liquid water oceans, including the Atlantic and Pacific. In the context of the OIAR, two teleconnection patterns are observed. One features three strong correlation centers, one each over the Mediterranean, Arctic, and North Pacific, and corresponds to AM fluctuations over liquid water oceans. The other is characterized by three strong correlation centers over the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and East Asia, and corresponds to AM fluctuations over the ice-covered Arctic. These teleconnections are the results of thermal contrasts among the three types of surfaces. Rossby waves and vertical circulations play important roles in the formation of these teleconnections. Interestingly, these teleconnections may have significant and widespread influences on the winter climate in the Northern Hemisphere, especially in regions near the Mediterranean, the northern Eurasia, parts of North America, and East Asia.

  16. Inter-annual Tropospheric Aerosol Variability in Late Twentieth Century and its Impact on Tropical Atlantic and West African Climate by Direct and Semi-direct Effects

    SciTech Connect

    Evans, Katherine J; Hack, James J; Truesdale, John; Mahajan, Salil; Lamarque, J-F

    2012-01-01

    A new high-resolution (0.9$^{\\circ}$x1.25$^{\\circ}$ in the horizontal) global tropospheric aerosol dataset with monthly resolution is generated using the finite-volume configuration of Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) coupled to a bulk aerosol model and forced with recent estimates of surface emissions for the latter part of twentieth century. The surface emissions dataset is constructed from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) decadal-resolution surface emissions dataset to include REanalysis of TROpospheric chemical composition (RETRO) wildfire monthly emissions dataset. Experiments forced with the new tropospheric aerosol dataset and conducted using the spectral configuration of CAM4 with a T85 truncation (1.4$^{\\circ}$x1.4$^{\\circ}$) with prescribed twentieth century observed sea surface temperature, sea-ice and greenhouse gases reveal that variations in tropospheric aerosol levels can induce significant regional climate variability on the inter-annual timescales. Regression analyses over tropical Atlantic and Africa reveal that increasing dust aerosols can cool the North African landmass and shift convection southwards from West Africa into the Gulf of Guinea in the spring season in the simulations. Further, we find that increasing carbonaceous aerosols emanating from the southwestern African savannas can cool the region significantly and increase the marine stratocumulus cloud cover over the southeast tropical Atlantic ocean by aerosol-induced diabatic heating of the free troposphere above the low clouds. Experiments conducted with CAM4 coupled to a slab ocean model suggest that present day aerosols can shift the ITCZ southwards over the tropical Atlantic and can reduce the ocean mixed layer temperature beneath the increased marine stratocumulus clouds in the southeastern tropical Atlantic.

  17. Possible link between interannual variation of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) abundance in the North Pacific and the climate phase shift in 1998/1999

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Igarashi, Hiromichi; Ichii, Taro; Sakai, Mitsuo; Ishikawa, Yoichi; Toyoda, Takahiro; Masuda, Shuhei; Sugiura, Nozomi; Mahapatra, Kedarnath; Awaji, Toshiyuki

    2017-01-01

    The relationship between interannual variation in abundance of the autumn cohort of the neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) and ocean environmental changes in the central North Pacific was examined. We focused on the change in subsurface ocean state during the 1998/1999 climate shift. Changes in catch per unit effort (CPUE) of the neon flying squid derived from long-term driftnet survey was compared to that in ocean environments related to the feeding conditions of the squid. A four-dimensional variational (4D-VAR) ocean data assimilation product was used as an accurate estimate of the dynamic state in the North Pacific. Correlation analysis indicated that the squid CPUE was highly related with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in winter. In January, the correlation field with the entrainment rate (ENT), the proxy for the nutrient-rich water supply entering the mixed layer, showed a good agreement with the main spawning and nursery ground of the autumn cohort (MSNGAC). The nutrient-rich water supply in the MSNGAC in early winter was mainly induced by the deepening of the mixed layer forced by surface latent heat cooling and turbulent mixing, while the basin-scale wind stress curl and the horizontal advection were less affected. These results suggest that the amount of newly supplied nutrient-rich water mass in early winter could affect the primary productivity throughout the winter and the resultant feeding conditions of the juvenile squid. We assumed that this process would determine the stock levels of the neon flying squid in the following summer. We further attempted to reconstruct the changes in neon flying squid CPUE during 1994-2006 by applying regression analysis to several parameters. The result showed that ENT, surface and subsurface temperatures, and the PDO index in February were good predictors for estimating the squid CPUE time series. In addition, the subsurface temperature in the MSNGAC in the preceding autumn was also a good predictor

  18. Forcings of nutrient, oxygen, and primary production interannual variability in the southeast Atlantic Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachèlery, M.-L.; Illig, S.; Dadou, I.

    2016-08-01

    The recurrent occurrences of interannual warm and cold events along the coast of Africa have been intensively studied because of their striking effects on climate and fisheries. Using sensitivity experimentation based on a coupled physical/biogeochemical model, we show that the oceanic remote equatorial forcing explains more than 85% of coastal interannual nitrate and oxygen fluctuations along the Angolan and Namibian coasts up to the Benguela Upwelling System (BUS). These events, associated with poleward propagations of upwelling and downwelling Coastal Trapped Waves (CTW), are maximum in subsurface and controlled by physical advection processes. Surprisingly, an abrupt change in the CTW biogeochemical signature is observed in the BUS, associated with mixed vertical gradients due to the strong local upwelling dynamics. Coastal modifications of biogeochemical features result in significant primary production variations that may affect fisheries habitats and coastal biodiversity along the southwestern African coasts and in the BUS.

  19. The 1994 heat wave in South Korea: mortality impacts and recurrence probability in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kysely, J.; Kim, J.

    2010-03-01

    The study deals with mortality impacts of the July-August 1994 heat wave in the population of South Korea, including the megacity of Seoul (with the population exceeding 10 million for the city and 20 million for the metropolitan area), and estimates recurrence probability of the heat wave in a changing climate in terms of simulations of daily temperature series with a stochastic model. The 1994 heat wave is found exceptional with respect to both climatological characteristics and the mortality effects: significantly elevated mortality occurred in all population groups, including children up to 14 years of age, and the total death toll exceeded 3000 in the Korean population, which ranks the 1994 heat wave among the worst weather-related disasters in East Asia. The estimate represents net excess mortality as no mortality displacement effect appeared. A comparison with other documented natural disasters shows that the death toll of the heat wave was much higher than those of the most disastrous floodings and typhoons over Korean Peninsula in the 20th century. The mortality response was stronger in males than females although males are found to be less vulnerable during average heat waves. A climatological analysis reveals that the July-August 1994 heat wave might be considered an extremely rare event with a return period in the order of hundreds of years if stationarity of temperature time series is assumed. However, under a more realistic assumption of gradual warming related to climate change, recurrence probability of an event analogous to the 1994 heat wave sharply rises for near-future time horizons. If warming of 0.04°C/year is assumed over 2001-2060, the recurrence interval of a very long spell of days with temperature exceeding a high threshold (as in the 1994 heat wave) is estimated to decrease to around 40 (10) years in the 2021-2030 (2041-2050) decade. This emphasizes the need for setting up an efficient heat-watch-warning system in this area in order to

  20. New Tools for Comparing Beliefs about the Timing of Recurrent Events with Climate Time Series Datasets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stiller-Reeve, Mathew; Stephenson, David; Spengler, Thomas

    2017-04-01

    For climate services to be relevant and informative for users, scientific data definitions need to match users' perceptions or beliefs. This study proposes and tests novel yet simple methods to compare beliefs of timing of recurrent climatic events with empirical evidence from multiple historical time series. The methods are tested by applying them to the onset date of the monsoon in Bangladesh, where several scientific monsoon definitions can be applied, yielding different results for monsoon onset dates. It is a challenge to know which monsoon definition compares best with people's beliefs. Time series from eight different scientific monsoon definitions in six regions are compared with respondent beliefs from a previously completed survey concerning the monsoon onset. Beliefs about the timing of the monsoon onset are represented probabilistically for each respondent by constructing a probability mass function (PMF) from elicited responses about the earliest, normal, and latest dates for the event. A three-parameter circular modified triangular distribution (CMTD) is used to allow for the possibility (albeit small) of the onset at any time of the year. These distributions are then compared to the historical time series using two approaches: likelihood scores, and the mean and standard deviation of time series of dates simulated from each belief distribution. The methods proposed give the basis for further iterative discussion with decision-makers in the development of eventual climate services. This study uses Jessore, Bangladesh, as an example and finds that a rainfall definition, applying a 10 mm day-1 threshold to NCEP-NCAR reanalysis (Reanalysis-1) data, best matches the survey respondents' beliefs about monsoon onset.

  1. Mars dust storms - Interannual variability and chaos

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ingersoll, Andrew P.; Lyons, James R.

    1993-01-01

    The hypothesis is that the global climate system, consisting of atmospheric dust interacting with the circulation, produces its own interannual variability when forced at the annual frequency. The model has two time-dependent variables representing the amount of atmospheric dust in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Absorption of sunlight by the dust drives a cross-equatorial Hadley cell that brings more dust into the heated hemisphere. The circulation decays when the dust storm covers the globe. Interannual variability manifests itself either as a periodic solution in which the period is a multiple of the Martian year, or as an aperiodic (chaotic) solution that never repeats. Both kinds of solution are found in the model, lending support to the idea that interannual variability is an intrinsic property of the global climate system. The next step is to develop a hierarchy of dust-circulation models capable of being integrated for many years.

  2. Mars dust storms - Interannual variability and chaos

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ingersoll, Andrew P.; Lyons, James R.

    1993-01-01

    The hypothesis is that the global climate system, consisting of atmospheric dust interacting with the circulation, produces its own interannual variability when forced at the annual frequency. The model has two time-dependent variables representing the amount of atmospheric dust in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Absorption of sunlight by the dust drives a cross-equatorial Hadley cell that brings more dust into the heated hemisphere. The circulation decays when the dust storm covers the globe. Interannual variability manifests itself either as a periodic solution in which the period is a multiple of the Martian year, or as an aperiodic (chaotic) solution that never repeats. Both kinds of solution are found in the model, lending support to the idea that interannual variability is an intrinsic property of the global climate system. The next step is to develop a hierarchy of dust-circulation models capable of being integrated for many years.

  3. The relationship between interannual and long-term cloud feedbacks

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Dessler, Andrew E.; Klein, Stephen A.

    2015-12-11

    The analyses of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations suggest that climate models with more positive cloud feedback in response to interannual climate fluctuations also have more positive cloud feedback in response to long-term global warming. Ensemble mean vertical profiles of cloud change in response to interannual and long-term surface warming are similar, and the ensemble mean cloud feedback is positive on both timescales. However, the average long-term cloud feedback is smaller than the interannual cloud feedback, likely due to differences in surface warming pattern on the two timescales. Low cloud cover (LCC) change in response to interannual and long-term global surface warming is found to be well correlated across models and explains over half of the covariance between interannual and long-term cloud feedback. In conclusion, the intermodel correlation of LCC across timescales likely results from model-specific sensitivities of LCC to sea surface warming.

  4. Interannual variability of the Arctic freshwater cycle in the second half of the twentieth century in a regionally coupled climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niederdrenk, Anne Laura; Sein, Dmitry V.; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

    2016-12-01

    We use a regionally coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere-hydrological discharge model to investigate the influence of changes in the atmospheric large-scale circulation on the interannual variability of the Arctic freshwater (FW) components. This model includes all sinks and sources of FW and allows for the analysis of a closed FW cycle in the Arctic. We show that few atmospheric winter modes explain large parts of the interannual variability of the Arctic FW cycle. A strong Icelandic low causing anomalous strong westerlies over the North Atlantic leads to warmer and wetter conditions over Eurasia. The ocean circulation is then characterized by a strong transpolar drift leading to increased export of FW in liquid and solid form into the North Atlantic. In contrast to this, a weaker than usual Icelandic low and a strong Siberian high is associated with a strong Beaufort Gyre and thus an accumulation of FW within the Arctic Ocean. Not only specific winter conditions but also increased precipitation in late spring and summer, caused by enhanced cyclone activity over land, lead to increased Eurasian runoff, which is responsible for most of the variability in Arctic river runoff.

  5. Radiative effects of interannually varying vs. interannually invariant aerosol emissions from fires

    DOE PAGES

    Grandey, Benjamin S.; Lee, Hsiang-He; Wang, Chien

    2016-11-23

    Open-burning fires play an important role in the earth's climate system. In addition to contributing a substantial fraction of global emissions of carbon dioxide, they are a major source of atmospheric aerosols containing organic carbon, black carbon, and sulfate. These “fire aerosols” can influence the climate via direct and indirect radiative effects. In this study, we investigate these radiative effects and the hydrological fast response using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). Emissions of fire aerosols exert a global mean net radiative effect of −1.0 W m−2, dominated by the cloud shortwave response to organic carbon aerosol. The net radiative effect ismore » particularly strong over boreal regions. Conventionally, many climate modelling studies have used an interannually invariant monthly climatology of emissions of fire aerosols. However, by comparing simulations using interannually varying emissions vs. interannually invariant emissions, we find that ignoring the interannual variability of the emissions can lead to systematic overestimation of the strength of the net radiative effect of the fire aerosols. Globally, the overestimation is +23 % (−0.2 W m−2). Regionally, the overestimation can be substantially larger. For example, over Australia and New Zealand the overestimation is +58 % (−1.2 W m−2), while over Boreal Asia the overestimation is +43 % (−1.9 W m−2). The systematic overestimation of the net radiative effect of the fire aerosols is likely due to the non-linear influence of aerosols on clouds. However, ignoring interannual variability in the emissions does not appear to significantly impact the hydrological fast response. In order to improve understanding of the climate system, we need to take into account the interannual variability of aerosol emissions.« less

  6. Radiative effects of interannually varying vs. interannually invariant aerosol emissions from fires

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grandey, Benjamin S.; Lee, Hsiang-He; Wang, Chien

    2016-11-01

    Open-burning fires play an important role in the earth's climate system. In addition to contributing a substantial fraction of global emissions of carbon dioxide, they are a major source of atmospheric aerosols containing organic carbon, black carbon, and sulfate. These "fire aerosols" can influence the climate via direct and indirect radiative effects. In this study, we investigate these radiative effects and the hydrological fast response using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). Emissions of fire aerosols exert a global mean net radiative effect of -1.0 W m-2, dominated by the cloud shortwave response to organic carbon aerosol. The net radiative effect is particularly strong over boreal regions. Conventionally, many climate modelling studies have used an interannually invariant monthly climatology of emissions of fire aerosols. However, by comparing simulations using interannually varying emissions vs. interannually invariant emissions, we find that ignoring the interannual variability of the emissions can lead to systematic overestimation of the strength of the net radiative effect of the fire aerosols. Globally, the overestimation is +23 % (-0.2 W m-2). Regionally, the overestimation can be substantially larger. For example, over Australia and New Zealand the overestimation is +58 % (-1.2 W m-2), while over Boreal Asia the overestimation is +43 % (-1.9 W m-2). The systematic overestimation of the net radiative effect of the fire aerosols is likely due to the non-linear influence of aerosols on clouds. However, ignoring interannual variability in the emissions does not appear to significantly impact the hydrological fast response. In order to improve understanding of the climate system, we need to take into account the interannual variability of aerosol emissions.

  7. Evaluation of the UK Met Office's HadGEM3-RA and HadRM3P regional climate models within South America-CORDEX simulations: ENSO related interannual precipitation variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bozkurt, D.; Rojas, M.

    2014-12-01

    This study aims to investigate and compare the ability of the UK Met Office's HadGEM3-RA and HadRM3P regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate mean and interannual variability of precipitation over South America with a special focus on Chile. The HadGEM3-RA is a regional version of the newly developed HadGEM3 global model and the HadRM3P is based on the earlier HadCM3 global model. The RCMs simulations were carried out at 0.44o x 0.44o degree resolution over South America-CORDEX domain for the period 1989-2008. The initial and boundary conditions were provided by ERA-Interim Reanalysis data available at 6-h intervals with a resolution of 1.5o x 1.5o in the horizontal and 37 pressure levels. We compare the results against a number of observational datasets, including gridded dataset of CRU, UDEL, TRMM and GPCP. Moreover, available station data is derived from Direccion General de Aguas (DGA) mainly for Central Chile, which is the heartland of Chile with the highest population and important economic activities. The analysis is mainly focused on evaluating the abilities of the RCMs in simulating spatial pattern and ENSO related precipitation variability in different subregions of South America-CORDEX domain. In general, both RCMs have a good skill in reproducing spatial pattern and annual cycle of observed precipitation in climatically different subregions. However, both RCMs tend to underestimate precipitation in the Amazon Basin, which is more pronounced in the HadRM3P simulations. On the contrary, the RCMs tend to overestimate the precipitation over the Andes and southern Chile. The overestimation could be related to the physical core of the RCMs, but the discrepancies could also arise due to insufficient station network, especially in the mountainous areas, potentially yielding smaller precipitation quantities in the observed data than the true ones. In terms of interannual variability, the models capture ENSO related wet and dry interannual precipitation

  8. Effect of climate, intra and inter-annual variability, on nutrients emission (C,N, P) in stream water: lessons from an agricultural long term observatory of the temperate zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal; Remi, Dupas; Patrick, Durand; Ophélie, Fovet; Gerard, Gruau; Anne, Jaffrezic; Guillaume, Humbert; Philippe, Merot; Gu, Sen

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture greatly contributes to modify C, N and P cycles, particularly in animal breeding regions due to high inputs. Climatic conditions, intra and inter-annual variabilities, modify nutrient stream water emissions, acting in time on transfer and transformation, accumulation and mobilization processes, connecting and disconnecting in time different compartments (soil, riparian areas, groundwater). In agricultural catchments, nutrient perturbations are dominated by agricultural land use, and decoupling human activities and climate effects is far from easy. Climate change generally appears as a secondary driver compared to land use. If studied, generally only one nutrient is considered. Only long term, high frequency and multiple element data series can decouple these two drivers. The Kervidy-Naizin watershed belongs to the AgrHyS environmental research observatory (http://www6.inra.fr/ore_agrhys_eng), itself included in RBV (French catchment network of the CZO). On this catchment, 6 years of daily data on DOC, NO3, SRP, TP concentrations allow us to analyze the effect of seasonal and inter-annual climatic variabilities on water quality (C, N, P). Different papers have been published on the effect of climate on nitrate (Molenat et al, 2008), SRP and TP (Dupas et al, 2015) and DOC (Humbert et al, 2015). We will present first results comparing the effect of climate on these three major solute forms of C, N and P. While C and P dynamics are very close and controlled by fluctuation of water table downslope, i.e. in riparian areas, mobilizing C and P in time, nitrate dynamics is controlled by GW dynamics upslope acting as the major N reservoir. As example, the dryness conditions in summer appears a key factor of the C and P emissions in autumn. All the three solute forms interact when anoxic conditions are observed in riparian zones. These basic processes explain how climatic variability can influence and explain interactions between C, N and P emissions in stream

  9. Ethical Considerations Regarding the Biological Contamination of Climatically Recurrent Special Regions.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clifford, S. M.

    2014-04-01

    years, such as in the Martian polar layered deposits (and other high-latitude, ice-rich environments), at times of high obliquity. Current climate models suggest that, for obliquities > 45°, summertime surface temperatures at polar and near-polar latitudes may approach or exceed the melting point of water for continuous periods of many months (Costard et al., 2001; Jakosky et al., 2003) - conditions that may be repeated annually throughout the maximum obliquity phase of the 105-year obliquity cycle. If so, these icerich, high-latitude environments may be considered climatically recurrent Special Regions - and may be among the most potentially habitable environments on Mars for the survival and growth of terrestrial microorganisms.A significant concern arising from this potential is that, whether by accident or the nominal operation of investigating spacecraft (cleaned to less than Special Region (IVc) standards), we might irreversibly contaminate these sensitive environments. While such contamination may not pose an immediate threat to the integrity of our spacecraft life-detection experiments, its potential impact on the long-term health and ultimate survival of a native Martian biosphere raises significant scientific and ethical concerns, as identified in the NRC report on Preventing the Forward Contamination 0f Mars [4]. Precedents for considering the adoption of planetary protection standards that minimize the potential impact of our exploration efforts on a native biosphere include the NRC report on Preventing the Forward Contamination of Europa, which noted that "future spacecraft missions to Europa must be subject to procedures designed to prevent its contamination by terrestrial organisms. This is necessary to safeguard the scientific integrity of future studies of Europa's biological potential and to protect against potential harm to Europan organisms, if they exist, and is mandated by obligations under the [Outer Space Treaty]" [5]). Virtually identical

  10. Climate response and spatial-temporal model on the inter-annual change of winter temperature-salinity in the East China Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Jin-kun; Miao, Qing-sheng; Yang, Yang; Xu, Shan-shan

    2017-01-01

    Spatial distributions and time variation characteristics were analyzed using Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) and spectrum analysis methods using surface and bottom temperature and salinity data in February of 1976-2013 along 30°N section in the East China Sea. Result showed that temperature trends can be divided into western part and east part, salinity trend divided into western, middle and eastern part. The first mode of surface temperature presented a quasi-equilibrium trend and the range was higher in the near-shore than the offshores, first mode of bottom temperature presented a decreasing trend; surface salinity had a decreasing trend and the extent was higher in the near-shore than the offshores, the bottom salinity showed a decreasing trend in recent years. The temperature inter-annual variability related to El Niño closely; short-term shocks of salinity related to El Niño, and long-term changes had something to do with PDO.

  11. Florida Current: seasonal and interannual variability

    SciTech Connect

    Schott, F.; Zantopp, R.

    1985-01-18

    Annual and interannual variations in the Florida Current, Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic are investigated with the use of historical sea level differences and wind field data. Observational and model evidence suggests that the seasonal transport cycle of the Florida Current is locally forced, either upstream in the Caribbean or downstream over topography. Although at seasonal and shorter periods sea level or bottom pressure fluctuations on the left side of the Florida Current contribute almost all of the variance of sea level difference across the Florida Straits and hence transport, this relation does not seem to apply at interannual time scales. Using results from the Subtropical Atlantic Climate Studies, it is estimated from historical sea level data that interannual transport fluctuations of the Florida Current are only of order 1 x 10/sup 6/ cubic meters per second. Interannual fluctuations in the 2- to 3-year period range in the Florida Straits seem to be correlated with sea level differences across the Caribbean and the subtropical Atlantic but not with Sverdrup transport fluctuations in the subtropical Atlantic. 26 references, 2 figures.

  12. Recurrent evolution of herbivory in small, cold-climate lizards: Breaking the ecophysiological rules of reptilian herbivory

    PubMed Central

    Espinoza, Robert E.; Wiens, John J.; Tracy, C. Richard

    2004-01-01

    Herbivory has evolved in many groups of vertebrates, but it is rare among both extinct and extant nonavian reptiles. Among squamate reptiles, (lizards, snakes, and their relatives), <2% of the >7,800 species are considered to be herbivorous, and herbivory is restricted to lizards. Here, we show that within a group of South American lizards (Liolaemidae, ≈170 species), herbivory has evolved more frequently than in all other squamates combined and at a rate estimated to be >65 times faster. Furthermore, in contrast to other herbivorous lizards and to existing theory, most herbivorous liolaemids are small bodied and live in cool climates. Herbivory is generally thought to evolve only in reptile species that are large bodied, live in warm climates, and maintain high body temperatures. These three well known “rules” of herbivory are considered to form the bases of physiological constraints that explain the paucity of herbivorous reptile species. We suggest that the recurrent and paradoxical evolution of herbivory in liolaemids is explained by a combination of environmental conditions (promoting independent origins of herbivory in isolated cool-climate regions), ecophysiological constraints (requiring small body size in cool climates, yet high body temperatures for herbivores), and phylogenetic history. More generally, our study demonstrates how integrating information from ecophysiology and phylogeny can help to explain macroevolutionary trends. PMID:15550549

  13. Effects of Climate Change on Indigenous Livelihoods: The Case of Recurrent Droughts among Nomadic Pastoralist of Southeastern Kenya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mwangi, M. N.; Desanker, P. V.

    2006-12-01

    Drought is the most injurious impact of climate change that decimates lives and hinders socioeconomic development in most rangelands of Kenya. Several scientific evidences indicate that global climate change will increase frequency and intensity of droughts. This will have important ramification for ecosystems and social systems in the rangelands of southeastern Kenya, and correctly so. These rangelands are fragile and degraded; and the inhabitants are mostly poverty-stricken. Nomadic pastoralism is the chief source of livelihood in this region; it relies on local natural pastures. Besides, pressures from land use change constitute an additional exposure, of nomadic pastoralism, to vulnerabilities of this climatic hazard. This region is highly prone to droughts; it is currently recovering from a devastating drought that started in early 2005 and terminated at the start this year. Most important, and like most societies in sub-Saharan Africa, inadequate adaptive capacity among nomadic pastoralists of Kenya, exacerbates deleterious impacts of drought. The livelihood of these pastoralists, therefore, stands to be destabilized. This study presents findings from an on-going research in Kajiado District of southeastern Kenya. Impacts of and adaptation strategies to recurrent and prolonged droughts among the nomadic Maasai pastoralist are presented. The study concludes with possible future scenarios of this form of pastoralism from which climate change actors can draw from.

  14. Recurrence network-based time series analysis for identifying tipping points in Plio-Pleistocene African climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donges, J. F.; Donner, R. V.; Trauth, M. H.; Marwan, N.; Schellnhuber, H. J.; Kurths, J.

    2012-04-01

    The analysis of paleoclimate time series is usually affected by severe methodological problems, resulting primarily from non-equidistant sampling and uncertain age models. As an alternative to existing methods of time series analysis, the statistical properties of recurrence networks are promising candidates for characterizing a system's nonlinear dynamics and quantifying structural changes in its reconstructed phase space as time evolves. The results of recurrence network analysis are robust under changes in the age model and are not directly affected by non-equidistant sampling of the data. Specifically, we investigate three marine records of African climate variability during the Plio-Pleistocene. We detect several statistically significant dynamical transitions or tipping points and show that the obtained results are qualitatively robust under changes of the relevant parameters of our method, including detrending, size of the running window used for analysis, and embedding delay. Finally, relating the identified tipping points in paleoclimate-variability to speciation and extinction events in the available fossil record of human ancestors contributes to the understanding of climatic mechanisms driving human evolution in Africa during the past 5 million years.

  15. Changing Climate, Disrupted Livelihoods: The Case of Vulnerability of Nomadic Maasai Pastoralism to Recurrent Droughts in Kajiado District, Kenya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mwangi, M. N.; Desanker, P. V.

    2007-12-01

    Pastoralism is practiced in all arid and semiarid lands (ASALs) of Africa. High interannual rainfall variability and degraded ecosystems characterize these ASALs and limits arable farming. Under these conditions, pastoralism has evolved as the most feasible livelihood system in ASALs, where total annual rainfall correlates with annual net primary productivity, especially grass. Maasai of East Africa are the largest group of nomadic pastoralists in Africa, with about two-thirds living in southern Kenya, mainly in Kajiado and Narok Districts. Maasai people of Kenya subsist by nomadic pastoralism. Nomads migrate with their livestock in search of natural pastures and water as climatic and environmental circumstances mandate. Successful migrations of nomadic pastoralists are being hampered by changing social and ecological factors both at local and broader scales. What is more, increased frequency and duration of drought constitute a major challenge with which the Maasai have to confront. Drought is a slow-developing phenomenon; therefore, it captures delayed attention. Nonetheless, the cumulative impacts of drought are more immense. Drought triggers catastrophic events that diminish adaptive capacity of inhabitants of these ASALs; this is conspicuous in Kajiado District where livestock productivity plummet as resource base erodes. What is more, global climate change is projected to intensify the occurrence, severity and duration of droughts in this region. Frequent droughts are likely to disrupt proper functioning of nomadic Maasai pastoralism. This study presents findings from an integrated research conducted in Kajiado District during the last two years. Spatiotemporal trends of drought, effects of drought on, and possible future of nomadic Maasai pastoralism are presented. This is informative to the Maasai pastoralists, policy makers and other actors in this sector. Most important, the study is contributes toward formulation of informed drought management strategies

  16. Interannual variability of rock glacier surface velocities and its relationship to climatic conditions on a decadal scale: Some insights from the European Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kellerer-Pirklbauer, Andreas; Bodin, Xavier; Delaloye, Reynald; Fischer, Andrea; Gärtner-Roer, Isabelle; Hartl, Lea; Kaufmann, Viktor; Krainer, Karl; Lambiel, Christophe; Mair, Volkmar; Marcer, Marco; Morra di Cella, Umberto; Scapozza, Cristian; Schoeneich, Philippe; Staub, Benno

    2017-04-01

    Active, inactive and relict rock glaciers are widespread periglacial landforms in the European Alps as revealed by several inventories elaborated for Slovenia, Austria, Switzerland, Italy, and France. Rock glaciers indicate present or past permafrost conditions in mountain environments and hence have a high climatic or paleoclimatic relevance. The monitoring of surface velocities at active rock glaciers has a long tradition in the European Alps with first terrestrial photogrammetric surveys in the Swiss and Austrian Alps already in the 1920s. Since the 1990s velocity monitoring activities have been substantially expanded but also institutionalized. Today, several research groups carry out annual or even continuous monitoring of rock glacier creep at more than 30 rock glaciers in Austria, France, Italy, and Switzerland. In many cases such a kinematic monitoring is jointly accomplished with meteorological and ground temperature monitoring in order to better understand the rock glacier-climate relationships and the reaction of rock glacier behavior to climatic changes. In this contribution we present a synthesis of the main results from long-term monitoring of several rock glaciers in the European Alps with at least annually-repeated data. Similarities but also differences of the movement patterns at the different sites are discussed, while the spatio-temporal pattern of the surface displacement is looked at against the climate context. In general, rock glacier surface velocities in the European Alps have been rather low during the 1980s and 1990s and reached a first peak in 2003/04 followed by a drastic drop until c.2007/08. Since then rock glacier surface velocities increased again with new velocity records in 2015/16 superior to the first peak around 2003/04. These creep rate maxima coincide with the warmest permafrost temperatures ever measured in boreholes and are likely a result of the continuously warm conditions at the ground surface over the past seven years.

  17. Productivity and phenological responses of natural vegetation to present and future inter-annual climate variability across semi-arid river basins in Chile.

    PubMed

    Glade, Francisco E; Miranda, Marcelo D; Meza, Francisco J; van Leeuwen, Willem J D

    2016-12-01

    Time series of vegetation indices and remotely sensed phenological data offer insights about the patterns in vegetation dynamics. Both are useful sources of information for analyzing and monitoring ecosystem responses to environmental variations caused by natural and anthropogenic drivers. In the semi-arid region of Chile, climate variability and recent severe droughts in addition to land-use changes pose threats to the stability of local ecosystems. Normalized difference vegetation index time series (2000-2013) data from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) was processed to monitor the trends and patterns of vegetation productivity and phenology observed over the last decade. An analysis of the relationship between (i) vegetation productivity and (ii) precipitation and temperature data for representative natural land-use cover classes was made. Using these data and ground measurements, productivity estimates were projected for two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) at two altitudinal levels. Results showed negative trends of vegetation productivity below 2000 m a.s.l. and positive trends for higher elevations. Phenology analysis suggested that mountainous ecosystems were starting their growing period earlier in the season, coinciding with a decreased productivity peak during the growing season. The coastal shrubland/grassland land cover class had a significant positive relation with rainfall and a significant negative relation with temperature, suggesting that these ecosystems are vulnerable to climate change. Future productivity projections indicate that under an RCP8.5 climate change scenario, productivity could decline by 12% in the period of 2060-2100, leading to a severe vegetation degradation at lower altitudes and in drier areas.

  18. Hydrology of the North Klondike River: carbon export, water balance and inter-annual climate influences within a sub-alpine permafrost catchment.

    PubMed

    Lapp, Anthony; Clark, Ian; Macumber, Andrew; Patterson, Tim

    2017-10-01

    Arctic and sub-arctic watersheds are undergoing significant changes due to recent climate warming and degrading permafrost, engendering enhanced monitoring of arctic rivers. Smaller catchments provide understanding of discharge, solute flux and groundwater recharge at the process level that contributes to an understanding of how larger arctic watersheds are responding to climate change. The North Klondike River, located in west central Yukon, is a sub-alpine permafrost catchment, which maintains an active hydrological monitoring station with a record of >40 years. In addition to being able to monitor intra-annual variability, this data set allows for more complex analysis of streamflow records. Streamflow data, geochemistry and stable isotope data for 2014 show a groundwater-dominated system, predominantly recharged during periods of snowmelt. Radiocarbon is shown to be a valuable tracer of soil zone recharge processes and carbon sources. Winter groundwater baseflow contributes 20 % of total annual discharge, and accounts for up to 50 % of total river discharge during the spring and summer months. Although total stream discharge remains unchanged, mean annual groundwater baseflow has increased over the 40-year monitoring period. Wavelet analysis reveals a catchment that responds to El Niño and longer solar cycles, as well as climatic shifts such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Dedicated to Professor Peter Fritz on the occasion of his 80th birthday.

  19. Satellite-derived estimates of forest leaf area index in southwest Western Australia are not tightly coupled to interannual variations in rainfall: implications for groundwater decline in a drying climate.

    PubMed

    Smettem, Keith R J; Waring, Richard H; Callow, John N; Wilson, Melissa; Mu, Qiaozhen

    2013-08-01

    There is increasing concern that widespread forest decline could occur in regions of the world where droughts are predicted to increase in frequency and severity as a result of climate change. The average annual leaf area index (LAI) is an indicator of canopy cover and the difference between the annual maximum and minimum LAI is an indicator of annual leaf turnover. In this study, we analyzed satellite-derived estimates of monthly LAI across forested coastal catchments of southwest Western Australia over a 12 year period (2000-2011) that included the driest year on record for the last 60 years. We observed that over the 12 year study period, the spatial pattern of average annual satellite-derived LAI values was linearly related to mean annual rainfall. However, interannual changes to LAI in response to changes in annual rainfall were far less than expected from the long-term LAI-rainfall trend. This buffered response was investigated using a physiological growth model and attributed to availability of deep soil moisture and/or groundwater storage. The maintenance of high LAIs may be linked to a long-term decline in areal average underground water storage and diminished summer flows, with an emerging trend toward more ephemeral flow regimes. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Interannual and long-term changes in the trophic state of a multibasin lake: Effects of morphology, climate, winter aeration, and beaver activity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robertson, Dale; Rose, William; Reneau, Paul C.

    2016-01-01

    Little St. Germain Lake (LSG), a relatively pristine multibasin lake in Wisconsin, USA, was examined to determine how morphologic (internal), climatic (external), anthropogenic (winter aeration), and natural (beaver activity) factors affect the trophic state (phosphorus, P; chlorophyll, CHL; and Secchi depth, SD) of each of its basins. Basins intercepting the main flow and external P sources had highest P and CHL and shallowest SD. Internal loading in shallow, polymictic basins caused P and CHL to increase and SD to decrease as summer progressed. Winter aeration used to eliminate winterkill increased summer internal P loading and decreased water quality, while reductions in upstream beaver impoundments had little effect on water quality. Variations in air temperature and precipitation affected each basin differently. Warmer air temperatures increased productivity throughout the lake and decreased clarity in less eutrophic basins. Increased precipitation increased P in the basins intercepting the main flow but had little effect on the isolated deep West Bay. These relations are used to project effects of future climatic changes on LSG and other temperate lakes.

  1. A 150 year record of inter-annual climate variability and organic carbon burial in Santa Monica and Santa Barbara Basins

    SciTech Connect

    Hagadorn, J.W.; Stott, L.D.; Sinha, A.; Rincon, M. . Dept. of Geological Sciences); Schimmelmann, A. . Scripps Inst. of Oceanography)

    1992-01-01

    Stable isotopic measurements were conducted on total organic carbon (TOC) and fossil planktonic foraminifera in laminated sediments collected from Santa Monica and Santa Barbara Basins, California Borderland, in order to investigate relationships between climatic variability and organic carbon burial. These data currently provide biannual sample resolution back to 1750 AD. During the past 150 years, there has been a positive covariance between the carbon isotopic composition of fossil planktonic foraminifera and of TOC. Periods of increased delta C-13 of TOC and foraminifera correspond to higher organic carbon burial in Santa Monica and Santa Barbara Basins. When combined, these patterns are interpreted as variation in productivity within the basins. Isotopic variability in TOC and planktonic foraminifera is significantly higher prior to 1900 AD. Although spring sea surface temperatures were also significantly more variable during this period, the authors do not recognize a systematic relationship between temperature and organic carbon burial. Spectral analysis of isotopic compositions of fossil foraminifera calcite, TOC, organic carbon burial and lamination frequency in the sediments reveal distinct spectral peaks at 5 and 7.7 years, corresponding to ENSO/El Nino frequencies. Additional spectral peaks occur at 19 and 20 years. Previous time series analyses of tree ring width records indicate similar decadal-scale frequencies and suggest a possible link to solar and/or lunar nodal tidal cycles. While these initial results suggest a relationship between climate-cyclicity, primary productivity and organic carbon burial, the phase relationship cannot be deciphered from this preliminary data set.

  2. Influence of upper ocean stratification interannual variability on tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vincent, Emmanuel M.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Vialard, Jérôme; Madec, Gurvan

    2014-09-01

    Climate modes, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), influence Tropical Cyclones (TCs) interannual activity through their effect on large-scale atmospheric environment. These climate modes also induce interannual variations of subsurface oceanic stratification, which may also influence TCs. Changes in oceanic stratification indeed modulate the amplitude of TCs-induced cooling, and hence the negative feedback of air-sea interactions on the TC intensity. Here we use a dynamical downscaling approach that couples an axisymmetric TC model to a simple ocean model to quantify this interannual oceanic control on TC activity. We perform twin experiments with contrasted oceanic stratifications representative of interannual variability in each TC-prone region. While subsurface oceanic variations do not significantly affect the number of moderate (Category 3 or less) TCs, they do induce a 30% change of Category 5 TC-days globally, and a 70% change for TCs exceeding 85 m s-1. TCs in the western Pacific and the southwestern Indian Ocean are most sensitive to oceanic interannual variability (with a ˜10 m s-1 modulation of the intensity of strongest storms at low latitude), owing to large upper ocean variations in response to ENSO. These results imply that a representation of ocean stratification variability should benefit operational forecasts of intense TCs and the understanding of their climatic variability.

  3. Interannual variability of photosynthesis across Africa and its attribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Christopher A.; Hanan, Niall P.; Baker, Ian; Collatz, G. James; Berry, Joseph; Denning, A. Scott

    2008-12-01

    Africa is thought to be a large source of interannual variability in the global carbon cycle, only vaguely attributed to climate fluctuations. This study uses a biophysical model, Simple Biosphere, to examine in detail what specific factors, physiological (acute stress from low soil water, temperature, or low humidity) and biophysical (low vegetation radiation use), are responsible for spatiotemporal patterns of photosynthesis across the African continent during the period 1982-2003. Acute soil water stress emerges as the primary factor driving interannual variability of photosynthesis for most of Africa. Southern savannas and woodlands are a particular hot spot of interannual variability in photosynthesis, owing to high rainfall variability and photosynthetic potential but intermediate annual rainfall. Surprisingly low interannual variability of photosynthesis in much of the Sudano-Sahelian zone derives from relatively low vegetation cover, pronounced humidity stress, and somewhat lower rainfall variability, whereas perennially wet conditions diminish interannual variability in photosynthesis across much of the Congo Basin and coastal West Africa. Though not of focus here, the coefficient of variation in photosynthesis is notably high in drylands and desert margins (i.e., Sahel, Greater Horn, Namib, and Kalahari) having implications for supply of food and fiber. These findings emphasize that when considering impacts of climate change and land surface feedbacks to the atmosphere, it is important to recognize how vegetation, climate, and soil characteristics may conspire to filter or dampen ecosystem responses to hydroclimatic variability.

  4. Interannual and seasonal dynamics, and the age, of nonstructural carbohydrate pools in the stemwood of temperate trees across a climatic gradient in the Northeastern US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richardson, A. D.; Carbone, M. S.; Czimczik, C. I.; Keenan, T. F.; Schaberg, P.; Murakami, P.; Xu, X.

    2012-04-01

    Like all plants, forest trees accumulate and store non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) as resources to be used in the future. This can be viewed as a bet-hedging strategy, providing reserves that the tree can draw on in times of stress—e.g., following disturbance, disease, or extreme climatic events. In the context of climate change, understanding factors influencing the availability of these stored NSC compounds to support growth and metabolism is essential for predicting the resilience of forests to environmental stress factors. We conducted this study to investigate the role of these stored NSC pools in the context of ecosystem C balance at time scales from days to years. At quarterly intervals over a three-year period, we monitored stemwood total NSC concentrations of the dominant tree species of New England. Work was conducted at three sites along a climatic gradient: an oak-dominated transition hardwood forest (Harvard Forest), a maple-beech-birch northern hardwood forest (Bartlett Experimental Forest), and a spruce-fir forest (Howland Forest). We observed large differences among species both in NSC concentrations, and in how the NSC pool is partitioned to different compounds (starch, sucrose, glucose, fructose, raffinose, and stachyose). Within a species, however, seasonal dynamics were remarkably similar across sites. We used the bomb radiocarbon (14C) spike to estimate the average age of the sugars and starches in the NSC pool in a subset of nine maple trees from each site. We found that the age of sugars ranged from 1-24 y and starches from 1-31 y. The ages of sugar and starch pools were highly correlated across all sites, and there was no significant difference in the mean age of the two pools, which was ~11 y. Using a one-pool representation of NSC reserves (similar to the standard approach used in several existing forest C models) our model FöBAAR (FOrest Biomass, Allocation, Assimilation and Respiration) failed to reproduce the seasonal NSC dynamics

  5. Information transfer across the scales of climate variability: The effect of the 7-8 year cycle on the annual and interannual scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palus, Milan; Jajcay, Nikola; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Kravtsov, Sergey; Tsonis, Anastasios

    2016-04-01

    Complexity of the climate system stems not only from the fact that it is variable over a huge range of spatial and temporal scales, but also from the nonlinear character of the climate system that leads to interactions of dynamics across scales. The dynamical processes on large time scales influence variability on shorter time scales. This nonlinear phenomenon of cross-scale causal interactions can be observed due to the recently introduced methodology [1] which starts with a wavelet decomposition of a multi-scale signal into quasi-oscillatory modes of a limited bandwidth, described using their instantaneous phases and amplitudes. Then their statistical associations are tested in order to search for interactions across time scales. An information-theoretic formulation of the generalized, nonlinear Granger causality [2] uncovers causal influence and information transfer from large-scale modes of climate variability with characteristic time scales from years to almost a decade to regional temperature variability on short time scales. In analyses of air temperature records from various European locations, a quasioscillatory phenomenon with the period around 7-8 years has been identified as the factor influencing variability of surface air temperature (SAT) on shorter time scales. Its influence on the amplitude of the SAT annual cycle was estimated in the range 0.7-1.4 °C and the effect on the overall variability of the SAT anomalies (SATA) leads to the changes 1.5-1.7 °C in the annual SATA means. The strongest effect of the 7-8 year cycle was observed in the winter SATA means where it reaches 4-5 °C in central European station and reanalysis data [3]. This study is supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic within the Program KONTAKT II, Project No. LH14001. [1] M. Palus, Phys. Rev. Lett. 112 078702 (2014) [2] M. Palus, M. Vejmelka, Phys. Rev. E 75, 056211 (2007) [3] N. Jajcay, J. Hlinka, S. Kravtsov, A. A. Tsonis, M. Palus, Time

  6. Interannual to decadal scale North Pacific climate dynamics during the last millennium from Eclipse Icefield (St. Elias Mountains) ice core stable isotope records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kreutz, K. J.; Wake, C.; Yalcin, K.; Vogan, N.; Introne, D.; Fisher, D.; Osterberg, E.

    2006-12-01

    A 345 meter ice core recovered from the St. Elias Mountains, Yukon Territory, Canada during 2002 has been continuously analyzed for stable hydrogen isotopes (deltaD), and is used to interpret changes in the North Pacfic hydrologic cycle and climate variability over the past 1000 years. Given the high annual snow accumulation rate at the site (1.5 meters/year), the record is high resolution (subannual) and annually dated to 1450 AD, and dated with ice flow models prior to 1450 AD. Five-year averaged isotope data over the past millennium display a classic Little Ice Age (LIA)/Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) pattern; that is, lower isotope ratios during the LIA, and higher isotope ratios during the MCA. Using the simple isotope/temperature relationship typically applied to ice core data, the Eclipse record may indicate lower regional temperatures and enhanced temperature variability during the period 1250 to 1700 AD. However, isotope data from an ice core recovered near the summit of Mt. Logan is clearly related to different hydrologic regimes. Regardless of the scaling used on the Eclipse isotope data, a distinct drop in isotope ratio occurs just prior to 1200AD, and may correspond with changes observed in tropical coral records. We suggest that fundamental changes in teleconnection and/or ENSO/PDO dynamics between the high and low latitudes in the Pacific may be responsible for the 13th century event. Based on the 1000-year record at 5-year resolution, as well as annual isotope data for the past 550 years, the 20th century is not anomalous with respect to previous time periods.

  7. Interannual variability of the South Indian Countercurrent

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menezes, Viviane V.; Phillips, Helen E.; Vianna, Marcio L.; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.

    2016-05-01

    In the present work, we investigate the interannual variability of the South Indian Countercurrent (SICC), a major and still understudied current of the Indian Ocean circulation. To characterize the interannual variability of the SICC, four different data sets (altimetry, GLORYS, OFAM3, and SODA) are analyzed using multiple tools, which include Singular Spectrum Analysis and wavelet methods. The quasi-biennial band dominates the SICC low-frequency variance, with the main peak in the 1.5-1.8 year interval. A secondary peak (2.1-2.5 year) is only found in the western basin. Interannual and decadal-type modulations of the quasi-biennial signal are also identified. In addition, limitations of SODA before the 1960s in the SICC region are revealed. Within the quasi-biennial band, the SICC system presents two main patterns with a multiple jet structure. One pattern is characterized by a robust northern jet, while in the other the central jet is well developed and northern jet is weaker. In both patterns, the southern jet has always a strong signature. When the northern SICC jet is stronger, the northern cell of the subtropical gyre has a triangular shape, with its southern limb having a strong equatorward slant. The quasi-biennial variability of the SICC is probably related to the Indian Ocean tropical climate modes that are known to have a strong biennial characteristic.

  8. Grape harvest and yield responses to inter-annual changes in temperature and precipitation in an area of north-east Spain with a Mediterranean climate.

    PubMed

    Camps, Josep Odó; Ramos, María Concepción

    2012-09-01

    This study presents an analysis of temperature and precipitation trends and their impact on grape harvests in the Penedès region (NE Spain). It includes analyses of maximum, minimum and mean daily temperatures (for both the growing and ripening seasons) and daily rainfall (for the hydrological year, the growing season and each phenological stage) for three observatories in the immediate area. We analysed a series of factors: beginning and end harvest dates; the day on which a given potential alcoholic degree was reached; and yield for several varieties of grape grown in the area in relation to climatic variables. Maximum temperatures increased at all the observatories, with greater values being recorded in recent years (1996-2009) than in previous decades (1960s-2000s): we observed increases in average growing season temperatures of 0.11°C per year for the period 1996-2009 vs 0.04°C per year for the period 1960-2009 at Vilafranca del Penedès. These temperature changes were due mainly to increases in maximum temperatures and an increase in the incidence of extreme heat (number of days with T > 30°C). Crop evapotranspiration also increased significantly during the same period. The Winkler index also increased, so the study area would correspond to region IV according to that climatic classification. There were no significant trends in annual rainfall but rainfall recorded between bloom and veraison decreased significantly at the three observatories, with the greatest decrease corresponding to the period 1996-2009. The dates on which harvests started and ended showed a continuous advance (of between -0.7 and -1.1 days per year, depending on the variety), which was significantly correlated with the average mean and maximum daily growing season temperatures (up to -7.68 days for 1°C increase). Winegrape yield was influenced by the estimated water deficit (crop evapotranspiration minus precipitation) in the bloom-veraison period; this value increased due to a

  9. Grape harvest and yield responses to inter-annual changes in temperature and precipitation in an area of north-east Spain with a Mediterranean climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camps, Josep Odó; Ramos, María Concepción

    2012-09-01

    This study presents an analysis of temperature and precipitation trends and their impact on grape harvests in the Penedès region (NE Spain). It includes analyses of maximum, minimum and mean daily temperatures (for both the growing and ripening seasons) and daily rainfall (for the hydrological year, the growing season and each phenological stage) for three observatories in the immediate area. We analysed a series of factors: beginning and end harvest dates; the day on which a given potential alcoholic degree was reached; and yield for several varieties of grape grown in the area in relation to climatic variables. Maximum temperatures increased at all the observatories, with greater values being recorded in recent years (1996-2009) than in previous decades (1960s-2000s): we observed increases in average growing season temperatures of 0.11°C per year for the period 1996-2009 vs 0.04°C per year for the period 1960-2009 at Vilafranca del Penedès. These temperature changes were due mainly to increases in maximum temperatures and an increase in the incidence of extreme heat (number of days with T > 30°C). Crop evapotranspiration also increased significantly during the same period. The Winkler index also increased, so the study area would correspond to region IV according to that climatic classification. There were no significant trends in annual rainfall but rainfall recorded between bloom and veraison decreased significantly at the three observatories, with the greatest decrease corresponding to the period 1996-2009. The dates on which harvests started and ended showed a continuous advance (of between -0.7 and -1.1 days per year, depending on the variety), which was significantly correlated with the average mean and maximum daily growing season temperatures (up to -7.68 days for 1°C increase). Winegrape yield was influenced by the estimated water deficit (crop evapotranspiration minus precipitation) in the bloom-veraison period; this value increased due to a

  10. Intra- and inter-annual uranium concentration variability in a Belizean stalagmite controlled by prior aragonite precipitation: A new tool for reconstructing hydro-climate using aragonitic speleothems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jamieson, Robert A.; Baldini, James U. L.; Brett, Marianne J.; Taylor, Jessica; Ridley, Harriet E.; Ottley, Chris J.; Prufer, Keith M.; Wassenburg, Jasper A.; Scholz, Denis; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.

    2016-10-01

    Aragonitic speleothems are increasingly utilised as palaeoclimate archives due to their amenability to high precision U-Th dating. Proxy records from fast-growing aragonitic stalagmites, precisely dated to annual timescales, can allow investigation of climatic events occurring on annual or even sub-annual timescales with minimal chronological uncertainty. However, the behaviour of many trace elements, such as uranium, in aragonitic speleothems has not thus far been as well constrained as in calcitic speleothems. Here, we use uranium concentration shifts measured across primary calcite-to-aragonite mineralogical transitions in speleothems to calculate the distribution coefficient of uranium in aragonitic speleothems (derived DU = 3.74 ± 1.13). Because our calculated DU is considerably above 1 increased prior aragonite precipitation due to increased karst water residence time should strongly control stalagmite aragonite U/Ca values. Consequently, uranium concentrations in aragonitic speleothems should act as excellent proxies for effective rainfall. We test this using a high-resolution ICP-MS derived trace element dataset from a Belizean stalagmite. YOK-G is an aragonitic stalagmite from Yok Balum cave in Belize with an extremely robust monthly-resolved chronology built using annual δ13C cycles. We interpret seasonal U/Ca variations in YOK-G as reflecting changes in the amount and seasonality of prior aragonite precipitation driven by variable rainfall amounts. The U/Ca record strongly suggests that modern drying has occurred in Belize, and that this drying was primarily caused by a reduction in wet season rainfall. This is consistent with published stable isotope data from YOK-G also very strongly suggesting modern rainfall reductions, previously interpreted as the result of southward ITCZ displacement. Our results strongly suggest that U/Ca values in aragonitic speleothems are excellent proxies for rainfall variability. This new tool, combined with the

  11. Comparison of different wind products and buoy wind data with seasonality and interannual climate variability in the southern Bay of Biscay (2000-2009)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alvarez, Inés; Gomez-Gesteira, Moncho; deCastro, Maite; Carvalho, David

    2014-08-01

    Ocean surface winds are essential factors in determining oceanographic and atmospheric processes that can affect ocean circulation and wave generation. Accurate surface wind datasets are needed, therefore, to enable the proper analysis of these processes. Wind data from six databases (National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis (NCEP Reanalysis II), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) re-analysis (ERA-Interim), Modern-Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), QuikSCAT and Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP)) were compared with wind measured in situ by four ocean buoys at the southern limit of the Bay of Biscay. The study covered the period 2000-2009 in such a way that the extent of the time series reduced the margin of error and allowed the disaggregation of the wind data using velocity bins and direction sectors. Statistical results confirmed that datasets with finer spatial resolution (lower than 0.5°×0.5°) gave better results, especially in near-shore areas. A more complete analysis was, therefore, carried out using the finer resolution datasets (QuikSCAT, CCMP and CFSR). This comparison showed that all the datasets were less accurate at low wind speeds (<4 m s-1) and more accurate at moderate wind speeds. The calculated mean wind speed errors were similar for the three datasets, and the lowest value (1.67 m s-1) was from the CCMP dataset. The lowest mean error for wind direction (~37°) was also observed in the CCMP data. The lowest mean wind speed (and direction) bias was obtained from the QuikSCAT data, and the next lowest from the CFSR data. The seasonality for north and east wind components was also determined for the last decade and the results were consistent with forcing for the continental slope current seasonality and winter temperatures or Navidad by wind stress. Correlations between NAO and north and east wind components were low showing

  12. The relationship between interannual and long-term cloud feedbacks

    DOE PAGES

    Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Dessler, Andrew E.; ...

    2015-12-11

    The analyses of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations suggest that climate models with more positive cloud feedback in response to interannual climate fluctuations also have more positive cloud feedback in response to long-term global warming. Ensemble mean vertical profiles of cloud change in response to interannual and long-term surface warming are similar, and the ensemble mean cloud feedback is positive on both timescales. However, the average long-term cloud feedback is smaller than the interannual cloud feedback, likely due to differences in surface warming pattern on the two timescales. Low cloud cover (LCC) change in response to interannual andmore » long-term global surface warming is found to be well correlated across models and explains over half of the covariance between interannual and long-term cloud feedback. In conclusion, the intermodel correlation of LCC across timescales likely results from model-specific sensitivities of LCC to sea surface warming.« less

  13. Interannual variability of stratospheric trace gases: The role of extratropical wave driving

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, J.; Waugh, D. W.; Douglass, A. R.; Kawa, S. R.; Newman, P. A.; Pawson, S.; Stolarski, R.; Lin, S. J.

    2004-10-01

    The interannual variability of methane and ozone from a 35-year middle atmosphere climate model simulation with no interannual variations in external forcing or chemistry is examined. The internal dynamics in the model produces large tracer interannual variability, particularly in polar regions. During winter and spring the interannual standard deviation in the polar lower-middle stratosphere is about 30% of the climatological mean for methane and 15% for ozone. Global-scale, coherent interannual variations in temperature, residual circulation, and tracers are correlated with variability in the extratropical wave forcing. Statistically significant positive correlations between wave driving and polar tracer tendencies, including column ozone, occur from autumn to spring in both hemispheres. These positive correlations imply that interannual variations in polar tracers are dominated by variations in the horizontal eddy transport and not by variations in residual mean descent rates.

  14. Community patterns of tropical tree phenology derived from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle images: intra- and interspecific variation, association with species plant traits, and response to interannual climate variation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bohlman, Stephanie; Rifai, Sami; Park, John; Dandois, Jonathan; Muller-Landau, Helene

    2017-04-01

    Phenology is a key life history trait of plant species and critical driver of ecosystem processes. There is strong evidence that phenology is shifting in temperate ecosystems in response to climate change, but tropical forest phenology remains poorly quantified and understood. A key challenge is that tropical forests contain hundreds of plant species with a wide variety of phenological patterns, which makes it difficult to collect sufficient ground-based field data to characterize individual tropical tree species phenologies. Satellite-based observations, an important source of phenology data in northern latitudes, are hindered by frequent cloud cover in the tropics. To quantify phenology over a large number of individuals and species, we collected bi-weekly images from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the well-studied 50-ha forest inventory plot on Barro Colorado Island, Panama. The objective of this study is to quantify inter- and intra-specific responses of tropical tree leaf phenology to environmental variation over large spatial scales and identify key environmental variables and physiological mechanisms underpinning phenological variation. Between October 2014 and December 2015 and again in May 2015, we collected a total of 35 sets of UAV images, each with continuous coverage of the 50-ha plot, where every tree ≥ 1 cm DBH is mapped. UAV imagery was corrected for exposure, orthorectified, and then processed to extract spectral, texture, and image information for individual tree crowns, which was then used as inputs for a machine learning algorithm that successfully predicted the percentages of leaf, branch, and flower cover for each tree crown (r2=0.76 between observed and predicted percent branch cover for individual tree crowns). We then quantified cumulative annual deciduousness for each crown by fitting a non-parametric curve of flexible shape to its predicted percent branch time series and calculated the area under the curve. We obtained the species

  15. The effect of inter-annual variability of consumption, production, trade and climate on crop-related green and blue water footprints and inter-regional virtual water trade: A study for China (1978-2008).

    PubMed

    Zhuo, La; Mekonnen, Mesfin M; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

    2016-05-01

    Previous studies into the relation between human consumption and indirect water resources use have unveiled the remote connections in virtual water (VW) trade networks, which show how communities externalize their water footprint (WF) to places far beyond their own region, but little has been done to understand variability in time. This study quantifies the effect of inter-annual variability of consumption, production, trade and climate on WF and VW trade, using China over the period 1978-2008 as a case study. Evapotranspiration, crop yields and green and blue WFs of crops are estimated at a 5 × 5 arc-minute resolution for 22 crops, for each year in the study period, thus accounting for climate variability. The results show that crop yield improvements during the study period helped to reduce the national average WF of crop consumption per capita by 23%, with a decreasing contribution to the total from cereals and increasing contribution from oil crops. The total consumptive WFs of national crop consumption and crop production, however, grew by 6% and 7%, respectively. By 2008, 28% of total water consumption in crop fields in China served the production of crops for export to other regions and, on average, 35% of the crop-related WF of a Chinese consumer was outside its own province. Historically, the net VW within China was from the water-rich South to the water-scarce North, but intensifying North-to-South crop trade reversed the net VW flow since 2000, which amounted 6% of North's WF of crop production in 2008. South China thus gradually became dependent on food supply from the water-scarce North. Besides, during the whole study period, China's domestic inter-regional VW flows went dominantly from areas with a relatively large to areas with a relatively small blue WF per unit of crop, which in 2008 resulted in a trade-related blue water loss of 7% of the national total blue WF of crop production. The case of China shows that domestic trade, as governed by

  16. Validation of Interannual Differences of AIRS Monthly Mean Parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Susskind, Joel; Iredell, Lena; Keita, Fricky; Molnar, Gyula

    2005-01-01

    Monthly mean fields of select geophysical parameters derived from analysis of AIRS/AMSU data, and their interannual differences, are shown and compared with analogous fields derived from other sources. All AIRS fields are derived using the AIRS Science Team Version 4 algorithm. Monthly mean results are shown for January 2004, as are interannual differences between January 2004 and January 2003. AIRS temperature and water vapor profile fields are compared with monthly mean collocated ECMWF 3 hour forecast and monthly mean TOVS Pathfinder Path A data. AIRS Tropospheric and Stratospheric coarse climate indicators are compared with analogous MSU products derived by Spencer and christy and found in the TOVS Pathfinder Path A data set. Total ozone is compared with results produced by TOMS. OLR is compared with OLR derived using CERES data and found in the TOVS Pathfinder Path A data set. AIRS results agree well in all cases, especially in the interannual difference sense.

  17. Clusters of interannual sea ice variability in the northern hemisphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fučkar, Neven S.; Guemas, Virginie; Johnson, Nathaniel C.; Massonnet, François; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.

    2016-09-01

    We determine robust modes of the northern hemisphere (NH) sea ice variability on interannual timescales disentangled from the long-term climate change. This study focuses on sea ice thickness (SIT), reconstructed with an ocean-sea-ice general circulation model, because SIT has a potential to contain most of the interannual memory and predictability of the NH sea ice system. We use the K-means cluster analysis—one of clustering methods that partition data into groups or clusters based on their distances in the physical space without the typical constraints of other unsupervised learning statistical methods such as the widely-used principal component analysis. To adequately filter out climate change signal in the Arctic from 1958 to 2013 we have to approximate it with a 2nd degree polynomial. Using 2nd degree residuals of SIT leads to robust K-means cluster patterns, i.e. invariant to further increase of the polynomial degree. A set of clustering validity indices yields K = 3 as the optimal number of SIT clusters for all considered months and seasons with strong similarities in their cluster patterns. The associated time series of cluster occurrences exhibit predominant interannual persistence with mean timescale of about 2 years. Compositing analysis of the NH surface climate conditions associated with each cluster indicates that wind forcing seem to be the key factor driving the formation of interannual SIT cluster patterns during the winter. Climate memory in SIT with such interannual persistence could lead to increased predictability of the Artic sea ice cover beyond seasonal timescales.

  18. Estimating inter-annual runoff variability from global hydroclimatic data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peel, Murray; McMahon, Thomas; Finlayson, Brian

    2016-04-01

    Inter-annual variability of runoff, measured by the coefficient of variation of annual runoff (RCv), is an important constraint on reservoir yield and storage size for water resources management. For a catchment with a fixed storage capacity, any increase in reservoir inflow RCv translates into reduced reservoir yield for a given reliability of supply. Developing an improved understanding of the physical influences on inter-annual runoff variability around the world and how these may change in future is of vital importance to achieving on-going robust water and catchment management. Here we take a large-scale Comparative Hydrology approach to develop empirical relationships for RCv using a global hydroclimatic data set of 588 catchments. Empirical RCv relationships are developed for the World and catchments experiencing predominantly (≥75% catchment area) tropical, arid, temperate or cold climate types. The RCv relationships are developed specifically using non-streamflow based predictor variables so they can be used for predicting RCv in ungauged basins (the PUB problem - Prediction in Ungauged Basins) and or ungauged climates (the PUC problem - Prediction in Ungauged Climates) if past or future projections of the required predictor variables are available. Empirical relationship predictor variables are based on precipitation, evaporative demand, vegetation and topography. Key variables that contribute to explaining RCv in each relationship will be assessed to identify the dominant drivers of RCv and how the contribution of those drivers varies between regions and climate types, with particular focus on inter-annual climate variability.

  19. Recurrence of Seagrass Mortality in Florida Bay: The Role of Climate Change and Implications for Carbon Sequestration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yarbro, L.; Carlson, P. R., Jr.

    2016-02-01

    Catastrophic mortality of seagrass in Florida Bay (USA) from 1987 to 1991 resulted in the complete loss of thousands of hectares of dense Thalassia testudinum beds. At that time, acutely toxic levels of dissolved sulfide in sediments were determined to be the proximal cause of seagrass mortality, but the mechanisms responsible for sulfide accumulation in sediments were not demonstrated. With the recurrence of seagrass mortality in Florida Bay in summer 2015, we show that several processes create the conditions that lead to sulfide toxicity and catastrophic mortality of Thalassia. Regional drought and elevated water temperature lead to hypersalinity, particularly in the northern Bay. In addition, evaporation of seawater on mudbanks and microtidal flow patterns create stratified brine layers in basins adjacent to mudbanks. Because of very high seagrass shoot densities and limited tidal exchange, brine layers limit oxygen diffusion and prevent oxidation of sulfide in sediments and bottom water, exposing roots, rhizomes and lateral meristems of Thalassia to acutely toxic levels of sulfide, causing extensive mortality. Dead belowground tissues provide labile carbon sources to sulfate-reducing bacteria enhancing sulfide production and creating a positive feedback loop of increasing sulfide toxicity leading to further seagrass death. The carbon sequestration capacity of these dense seagrass communities is diminished three ways: 1) export of dead seagrass shoots and leaves as floating wrack, 2) in situ decomposition of roots, rhizomes, and some leaf material, and 3) reduced areal productivity of surviving seagrasses. Climate analyses show that, in the short term ( 50 years), higher water temperatures and evaporation rates might result in recurring seagrass mortality events. However, in the long term, sea level rise will increase tidal exchange and flushing in Florida Bay reducing the likelihood of seagrass mortality.

  20. Anatomy of the recurrent coastal sediment plume in Lake Michigan and its impacts on light climate, nutrients, and plankton

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vanderploeg, H. A.; Johengen, T. H.; Lavrentyev, P. J.; Chen, C.; Lang, G. A.; Agy, M. A.; Bundy, M. H.; Cavaletto, J. F.; Eadie, B. J.; Liebig, J. R.; Miller, G. S.; Ruberg, S. A.; McCormick, M. J.

    2007-03-01

    As part of the Episodic Events Great Lakes Experiment, we sampled total suspended matter (TSM), light climate, nutrients, and plankton along cross-margin transects in southern Lake Michigan during February, March, and April 1998-2000 to capture conditions before, during, and after the occurrence of storm-driven recurrent coastal sediment plumes to define the anatomy of the resuspension events and get insights into their interactions with nutrients and plankton. Variability in timing and strength of winter storms among years led to different timing, intensity, and extent of plumes among years. TSM concentrations in the core of plumes varied between 15 and 30 mg L-1, and photic depth was reduced to ˜1 to 2 m, thus potentially seriously limiting phytoplankton growth in plume areas. Total P concentration was highly correlated with TSM and river influence. Chlorophyll concentrations were lower in plume regions than in adjacent areas, in contrast to the relatively constant chlorophyll concentration across the plume predicted by a coupled hydrodynamic and nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton model. Contrary to expectation, protozoan microzooplankton (MZ) biomass was not more abundant in the plume than adjacent waters, but was highest in nearshore areas receiving river inflow. Storms affected horizontal distribution of zooplankton. Because of the lower concentrations of phytoplankton in the plume, the plume over the short term had a negative impact on zooplankton during this food-limiting season. Our results combined with those of other EEGLE studies lead us to conclude that storms and storm-driven plumes had a negative effect on the planktonic food web.

  1. Interannual variability in the global carbon cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Houghton, R. A.

    2000-08-01

    The annual growth rate of atmospheric CO2 has varied between 1 and 5 Pg C yr-1 over the last decades. Most of this variation is associated with terrestrial and oceanic exchanges of carbon which seem to vary independently. Three processes contribute to the annual flux of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems: changes in land use, natural disturbances, and metabolic changes caused by variations in climate. Because rates of land-use change are often not available on an annual basis, estimates of the flux of carbon attributable to land use change may underestimate year-to-year variability. Limited data reviewed here suggest that the interannual variability of this flux is generally small for two reasons. First, although rates of land use change may vary substantially from year to year at a local scale, variability is generally less at regional and global scales because high rates of deforestation in one area do not necessarily coincide with high rates in other areas. Second, less than 50% of the carbon lost to the atmosphere as a result of land use change is lost in the year of disturbance; the rest is released in subsequent years. The interannual variability of the flux of carbon from land use change is thus less variable than rates of land use change and probably accounts, globally, for less than 5-10% of the observed variation in the annual growth rate of CO2 in the atmosphere. Natural disturbances are estimated to account for a similar fraction of the variation. The most important contributor appears to be the effect of short-term changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) on terrestrial metabolism. Over the period 1980-1995, year-to-year differences in the flux of carbon from terrestrial metabolism have almost been as large as variations in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2.

  2. Interannual sea level variability in the Eastern Indian Ocean and Southern South China Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohan, S. S.; Vethamony, P.

    2016-12-01

    Sea level anomalies (SLAs) derived from satellite observations (over a period of 21 years) and tide gauge data compiled from 24 stations from the Eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) and southern South China Sea (SCS) have been analysed to study the inter-annual variability of SLAs in the EIO and southern SCS. To examine the seasonality in interannual variability, 3 months to 7 years band pass filtered non-seasonal SLAs were considered. A large fraction of interannual SLA variability in the south eastern SCS is linked to ENSO and rest of the region is characterized by small scale interannual variations. Analysis of both tide gauge and altimetry data confirms that interannual sea level anomalies in the SCS shows seasonality with pronounced variation occurring during winter and fall seasons. Both tide gauge and altimetry data show that 40% of interannual SLAs at Malacca Strait and southeastern SCS and 50% at Java Sea could be explained by both ENSO and IOD. Malacca Strait and Java Sea SLAs at interannual scale show coherent variability with that of eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Regional correlation pattern and Wavelet power spectrum of SLAs at Java Sea shows similar dominant periodicities as in the Malacca Strait. Strong oscillations associated with climate modes are centered at 2-5 year period. Interannual SLAs at southeastern SCS show the importance of western Pacific on sea level modulation through the Luzon and Mindoro Straits. Wind variations largely explain the interannual SLA variation in the EIO and southern SCS. Interannual zonal wind variations in the equatorial Indian Ocean induce SLA variations in the Malacca Strait and Java Sea. Remote and local winds that drive interannual variability of SLAs in the EIO and southeastern SCS are associated with both ENSO and IOD events.

  3. Simulation of Interannual Variability in the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, S. L.; Govindasamy, B.

    2001-12-01

    Recent observational and modeling studies have shown that the net flux of carbon from the global terrestrial ecosystem is subject to substantial interannual variability. We use an integrated atmospheric general circulation and biosphere dynamics model to investigate the nature and source of this variability in the terrestrial carbon cycle. The Community Climate Model 3 (CCM3) coupled to the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS 2) is used to perform a 16-member ensemble of AMIP-type present day simulations with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the period 1979-1992. Interannual global variations in terrestrial carbon uptake as simulated are of the proper magnitude and have good positive correlation with inferred uptake from observationally driven inverse modeling for the same time period. While our ensemble simulations do permit the extraction of a SST-driven signal, they also show that nearly 65% of interannual variability is driven by "internal" chaotic climate variability not related to variations in SST. This unforced interannual variability in carbon uptake appears to originate mainly from the unforced variability in Net Primary Productivity which in turn is driven by the chaotic variability in interannual precipitation and surface temperature. B06. Water, Energy, and Carbon Cycles in Terrestrial Systems: Measuring and Modeling From Site to Region Sponsor: Biogeosciences Conveners: Beverly Law Oregon State University 328 Richardson Hall, College of Forestry Corvallis, OR 973315752 USA Phone: +1-541-737-6111 fax: +1-541-737-1393 lawb@fsl.orst.edu Peter Thornton University of Montana NTSG, School of Forestry Missoula, MT 59812 USA Phone: +1-406-243-4326 fax: +1-406-243-4510 peter@ntsg.umt.edu Index terms: 0400 1851

  4. Terrestrial Waters and Sea Level Variations on Interannual Time Scale

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Llovel, W.; Becker, M.; Cazenave, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; Alkama, R.; Decharme, B.; Douville, H.; Ablain, M.; Beckley, B.

    2011-01-01

    On decadal to multi-decadal time scales, thermal expansion of sea waters and land ice loss are the main contributors to sea level variations. However, modification of the terrestrial water cycle due to climate variability and direct anthropogenic forcing may also affect sea level. For the past decades, variations in land water storage and corresponding effects on sea level cannot be directly estimated from observations because these are almost non-existent at global continental scale. However, global hydrological models developed for atmospheric and climatic studies can be used for estimating total water storage. For the recent years (since mid-2002), terrestrial water storage change can be directly estimated from observations of the GRACE space gravimetry mission. In this study, we analyse the interannual variability of total land water storage, and investigate its contribution to mean sea level variability at interannual time scale. We consider three different periods that, each, depend on data availability: (1) GRACE era (2003-2009), (2) 1993-2003 and (3) 1955-1995. For the GRACE era (period 1), change in land water storage is estimated using different GRACE products over the 33 largest river basins worldwide. For periods 2 and 3, we use outputs from the ISBA-TRIP (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere-Total Runoff Integrating Pathways) global hydrological model. For each time span, we compare change in land water storage (expressed in sea level equivalent) to observed mean sea level, either from satellite altimetry (periods 1 and 2) or tide gauge records (period 3). For each data set and each time span, a trend has been removed as we focus on the interannual variability. We show that whatever the period considered, interannual variability of the mean sea level is essentially explained by interannual fluctuations in land water storage, with the largest contributions arising from tropical river basins.

  5. Interannual variation of carbon exchange fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kindermann, Jürgen; Würth, Gudrun; Kohlmaier, Gundolf H.; Badeck, Franz-W.

    1996-12-01

    A global prognostic physiologically based model of the carbon budget in terrestrial ecosystems, the Frankfurt Biosphere Model (FBM), is applied to simulate the interannual variation of carbon exchange fluxes between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere. The data on climatic forcing are based on Cramer and Leemans climate maps; the interannual variation is introduced according to records of temperature anomalies and precipitation anomalies for the period 1980 to 1993. The calculated net exchange flux between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere is compared to the biospheric signal deduced from 13C measurements. Some intermediate results are presented as well: the contributions of the most important global ecosystems to the biospheric signal, the contributions of different latitudinal belts to the biospheric signal, and the responses of net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh). From the simulation results it can be inferred that the complex temperature and precipitation responses of NPP and Rh in different latitudes and different ecosystem types add up to a global CO2 signal contributing substantially to the atmospheric CO2 anomaly on the interannual timescale. The temperature response of NPP was found to be the most important factor determining this signal.

  6. Interannual Variability in Amazonian Net Ecosystem Production: Implication for Regional Carbon Cycle.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shevliakova, E.; Hurtt, G. C.; Pacala, S. W.; Milly, P. D.; Moorcroft, P. R.

    2001-12-01

    Interannual variability in Amazonian terrestrial ecosystems functioning during the past two decades is examined in order to estimate the range of variations in biogenic sources and sinks of CO2 as well as the changes in the biophysical conditions affecting regional climate. We simulated interannual patterns of vegetation characteristics using Ecosystem Demography (ED) model. This is a mechanistic terrestrial biosphere model which simulates both the fast time scales (hours) of carbon and water fluxes and the longtime scales of ecosystem dynamics. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis climate data set and regional precipitation data sets drive the simulations of ED model. We explore sensitivities of tropical ecosystem photosynthetic production and respiration to variation in temperature, precipitation, atmospheric humidity, radiation and wind conditions. The simulated inter-annual variations in the state of Amazonian ecosystems suggests that short -term changes in the state of vegetation could have salient effect on the global carbon cycle as well as regional climatic conditions.

  7. Recurrent recurrent gallstone ileus.

    PubMed

    Hussain, Z; Ahmed, M S; Alexander, D J; Miller, G V; Chintapatla, S

    2010-07-01

    We describe the second reported case of three consecutive episodes of gallstone ileus and ask the question whether recurrent gallstone ileus justifies definitive surgery to the fistula itself or can be safely managed by repeated enterotomies.

  8. Interannual rainfall variability and SOM-based circulation classification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolski, Piotr; Jack, Christopher; Tadross, Mark; van Aardenne, Lisa; Lennard, Christopher

    2017-03-01

    Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) based classifications of synoptic circulation patterns are increasingly being used to interpret large-scale drivers of local climate variability, and as part of statistical downscaling methodologies. These applications rely on a basic premise of synoptic climatology, i.e. that local weather is conditioned by the large-scale circulation. While it is clear that this relationship holds in principle, the implications of its implementation through SOM-based classification, particularly at interannual and longer time scales, are not well recognized. Here we use a SOM to understand the interannual synoptic drivers of climate variability at two locations in the winter and summer rainfall regimes of South Africa. We quantify the portion of variance in seasonal rainfall totals that is explained by year to year differences in the synoptic circulation, as schematized by a SOM. We furthermore test how different spatial domain sizes and synoptic variables affect the ability of the SOM to capture the dominant synoptic drivers of interannual rainfall variability. Additionally, we identify systematic synoptic forcing that is not captured by the SOM classification. The results indicate that the frequency of synoptic states, as schematized by a relatively disaggregated SOM (7 × 9) of prognostic atmospheric variables, including specific humidity, air temperature and geostrophic winds, captures only 20-45% of interannual local rainfall variability, and that the residual variance contains a strong systematic component. Utilising a multivariate linear regression framework demonstrates that this residual variance can largely be explained using synoptic variables over a particular location; even though they are used in the development of the SOM their influence, however, diminishes with the size of the SOM spatial domain. The influence of the SOM domain size, the choice of SOM atmospheric variables and grid-point explanatory variables on the levels of explained

  9. Decadal and interannual variability of the Indian Ocean SST

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krishnamurthy, Lakshmi; Krishnamurthy, V.

    2016-01-01

    The variability of the Indian Ocean on interannual and decadal timescales is investigated in observations, coupled model simulation and model experiment. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode was specifically analyzed using a data-adaptive method. This study reveals one decadal mode and two interannual modes in the sea surface temperature (SST) of the IOD. The decadal mode in the IOD is associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) of the North Pacific SST. The two interannual modes are related to the biennial and canonical components of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), consistent with previous studies. This study hypothesizes that the relation between the Indian Ocean and the North Pacific on decadal scale may be through the northerly winds from the western North Pacific. The long simulation of Community Climate System Model version 4 also indicates the presence of IOD modes associated with the decadal PDO and canonical ENSO modes. However, the model fails to simulate the biennial ENSO mode in the Indian Ocean. The relation between the Indian Ocean and North Pacific Ocean is further supported by the regionally de-coupled model experiment.

  10. Oceanic Control of Northeast Pacific Hurricane Activity at Interannual Timescales

    SciTech Connect

    Balaguru, Karthik; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2013-10-16

    Despite the strong dependence of the Power Dissipation Index (PDI), which is a measure of the intensity of Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity, on tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), the variations in PDI are not completely explained by SST. Here we show, using an analysis of a string of observational data sets, that the variability of the thermocline depth (TD) in the east Pacific exerts a significant degree of control on the variability of PDI in that region. On average, a deep thermocline with a larger reservoir of heat favors TC intensification by reducing SST cooling while a shallow thermocline with a smaller heat reservoir promotes enhanced SST cooling that contributes to TC decay. At interannual time scales, the variability of basin-mean TD accounts for nearly 30% of the variability in the PDI during the TC season. Also, about 20% of the interannual variability in the east Pacific basin-mean TD is due to the El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a dominant climate signal in this region. This study suggests that a better understanding of the factors governing the interannual variability of the TD conditions in the east Pacific and how they may change over time, may lead to an improved projection of future east Pacific TC activity.

  11. High resolution Greenland ice sheet inter-annual mass variations combining GRACE gravimetry and Envisat altimetry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, Xiaoli; Shum, C. K.; Guo, Junyi; Duan, Jianbin; Howat, Ian; Yi, Yuchan

    2015-07-01

    Inter-annual mass variations of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) are important for improving mass balance estimates, validation of atmospheric circulation models and their potential improvement. By combining observed inter-annual variations from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Environmental Satellite (Envisat) altimetry data over the period from January 2003 to December 2009, we are able to estimate the nominal density, with the objective of obtaining higher resolution mass changes using altimeter data at the inter-annual scale. We find high correlations between these two inter-annual variations on the order of 0.7 over 60% of the GrIS, in particular over the west side along the central ice divide. Significant negative correlations are found in parts of Northeast and Southeast GrIS, where negative inter-annual variation correlations were also found between mass change from GRACE and snow depth from ECMWF reanalysis in a previous study. In the regions of positive correlation, the estimated nominal densities range from 383.7 ± 50.9 to 596.2 ± 34.1 kgm-3. We demonstrate the feasibility of obtaining high-resolution inter-annual mass variation over Southwest GrIS, one of the regions with positive correlations, based on density-corrected Envisat altimetry, 2003-2009. A definitive explanation for the existence of regions of negative correlation remains elusive.

  12. Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Sea Surface Salinity in Bay of Bengal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valiya Parambil, A.

    2016-02-01

    Heavy rainfall and strong river runoffs associated with the southwest monsoon makes Bay of Bengal (BoB) one of the freshest regions in the tropical oceans. This surface freshening results in strong near surface salinity stratification, which has strong impacts on the atmosphere and regional climate. Due to the paucity of in-situ sea surface salinity (SSS) observations and the lack of reliable interannually varying freshwater forcing, little is known about the mechanisms governing the seasonal and interannual SSS evolution in the bay. We therefore use an ocean general circulation model without relaxation towards observation and forced with interannual estimates of river runoffs and precipitations to study the SSS variations. The model accurately simulates the SSS fluctuations of the in-situ data. The largest seasonal and interannual SSS fluctuations occur at the head of the Bay and along the eastern coast of India. The strong seasonal freshening that occurs shortly after the monsoon in the northern part of the Bay and its interannual fluctuations are both driven by the variability of Ganges-Brahmaputra river discharge. Horizontal advection by the southward flowing coastal current is responsible for the seasonal southward expansion of fresh pool along the east coast of India. The interannual SSS fluctuations in this region are remotely controlled by the Indian Ocean Dipole. Contrary to what was thought before, the salt influx into the upper BoB occurs primarily through turbulent vertical exchanges with the underlying saltier waters, rather than by horizontal exchanges with the rest of the Indian Ocean.

  13. The interannual variability of polar cap recessions as a measure of Martian climate and weather: Using Earth-based data to augment the time line for the Mars observer mapping mission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martin, L. J.; James, P. B.

    1992-01-01

    The recessions of the polar ice caps are the most visible and most studied indication of seasonal change on Mars. Circumstantial evidence links these recessions to the seasonal cycles of CO2, water, and dust. The possible advent of a planet encircling storm during the Mars Observer (MO) mission will provide a detailed correlation with a cap recession for that one Martian year. That cap recession will then be compared with other storm and nonstorm years. MO data will also provide a stronger link between cap recessions and the water and CO2 cycles. Cap recession variability might also be used to determine the variability of these cycles. After nearly a century of valiant attempts at measuring polar cap recessions, including Mariner 9 and Viking data, MO will provide the first comprehensive dataset. In contrast to MO, the older data are much less detailed and precise and could be forgotten, except that it will still be the only information on interannual variability. By obtaining simultaneous Earth-based observations (including those from Hubble) during the MO mission, direct comparisons can be made between the datasets.

  14. Marine and terrestrial influences on interannual CO{sub 2} variations at Mauna Loa and the South Pole

    SciTech Connect

    Dettinger, M.D.; Ghil, M.

    1997-11-01

    Data are presented and very briefly discussed regarding interannual variations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) concentrations. Interannual variations are isolated from monthly concentrations by using singular-spectrum analysis of CO{sub 2} and atmospheric carbon isotopic ratios at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, United States and at the South Pole. Interannual variations are shared at the two sites, and can be used to differentiate between marine and land-surface responses to different interannual climate variations on global scales. Two time-scales are compared: (1) quasi-quadrennial (QQ) and (2) 3-year. Phase relations indicate that QQ variations are dominated by terrestrial influences, whereas the 3-year variations reflect marine (upwelling) influences in the eastern Pacific. The contrasting CO{sub 2} responses on these two time scales thus provide a useful measure of differences in global climate responses, and especially in terrestrial-ecosystem responses to different tropical forcings. 1 fig.

  15. Soil moisture controls on inter-annual variability of biogenic isoprene emissions and ozone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tawfik, A. B.; Shalaby, A.; Steiner, A. L.; Zakey, A.

    2010-12-01

    Biogenic isoprene emissions directly respond to leaf temperature, photosynthetic active radiation, and soil moisture. These climate variables can be important for estimating biogenic emissions and their impact on interannual variability of ground-level ozone and secondary organic aerosol. Due to the non-linear relationship between temperature and soil moisture, observational data alone are not capable of quantifying each variable’s contribution to isoprene emissions. A process-based emissions model (the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature; MEGAN) is coupled to a regional climate and chemistry model (RegCM-CLM-CHEM) to assess the contributions of environmental variables controlling isoprene emissions on climatological time scales. A fully online simulation was performed from 1994-2008 where isoprene emissions respond at each land surface time step to all environmental variables. A first order Taylor expansion method was used to determine percent contribution to inter-annual isoprene variability from each environmental variable. In July, leaf temperature accounts for more than 65% of inter-annual variations in isoprene emissions over the Plains and the Great Lakes region. However, soil moisture variations tend to dominate controls on inter-annual variability for the southeastern U.S. (> 60%). Model simulations and observational data from the Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (PAMS) are implemented to estimate the effects of drought on inter-annual variations of isoprene and ozone.

  16. Interannual spring Wyrtki jet variability and its regional impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deshpande, Aditi; Gnanaseelan, C.; Chowdary, J. S.; Rahul, S.

    2017-06-01

    The role of spring Wyrtki jets in modulating the equatorial Indian Ocean and the regional climate is an unexplored problem. The source of interannual variability in the spring Wyrtki jets is explored in this study. The relationship between intraseasonal and interannual variability from 1958 to 2008 and its relation with Indian Summer Monsoon is further addressed. Analysis reveals that the interannual variability in spring Wyrtki jets is controlled significantly by their intraseasonal variations. These are mostly defined by a single intraseasonal event of duration 20 days or more which either strengthens or weakens the seasonal mean jet depending on its phase. The strong spring jets are driven by such intraseasonal westerly wind bursts lasting for 20-days or more, whereas the weak jets are driven by weaker intraseasonal westerlies. During the years of strong jets, the conventional westward phase propagation of Wyrtki jets is absent and instead there is an eastward phase propagation indicating the possible role of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) in strengthening the spring Wyrtki jets. These strong intraseasonal westerly wind bursts with eastward phase propagation during strong years are observed mainly in late spring and have implications on June precipitation over the Indian and adjoining land mass. Anomalously strong eastward jets accumulate warm water in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO), leading to anomalous positive upper ocean heat content and supporting more local convection in the east. This induces subsidence over the Indian landmass and alters monsoon rainfall by modulating monsoon Hadley circulation. In case of weak current years such warm anomalies are absent over the eastern EIO. Variations in the jet strength are found to have strong impact on sea level anomalies, heat content, salinity and sea surface temperature over the equatorial and north Indian Ocean making it a potentially important player in the north Indian Ocean climate variability.

  17. Winter to winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia and its impact on winter surface air temperature anomalies.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xia; Yang, Guang

    2017-01-01

    The persistence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia shows a winter to winter recurrence (WTWR) phenomenon. Seasonal variations in sea level pressure anomalies and surface wind anomalies display significantly different characteristics between WTWR and non-WTWR years. The WTWR years are characterized by the recurrence of both a strong (weak) anomalous Siberian High and an East Asian winter monsoon over two successive winters without persistence through the intervening summer. However, anomalies during the non-WTWR years have the opposite sign between the current and ensuing winters. The WTWR of circulation anomalies contributes to that of surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs), which is useful information for improving seasonal and interannual climate predictions over East Asia and China. In the positive (negative) WTWR years, SATAs are cooler (warmer) over East Asia in two successive winters, but the signs of the SATAs are opposite in the preceding and subsequent winters during the non-WTWR years.

  18. Winter to winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia and its impact on winter surface air temperature anomalies

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    The persistence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia shows a winter to winter recurrence (WTWR) phenomenon. Seasonal variations in sea level pressure anomalies and surface wind anomalies display significantly different characteristics between WTWR and non-WTWR years. The WTWR years are characterized by the recurrence of both a strong (weak) anomalous Siberian High and an East Asian winter monsoon over two successive winters without persistence through the intervening summer. However, anomalies during the non-WTWR years have the opposite sign between the current and ensuing winters. The WTWR of circulation anomalies contributes to that of surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs), which is useful information for improving seasonal and interannual climate predictions over East Asia and China. In the positive (negative) WTWR years, SATAs are cooler (warmer) over East Asia in two successive winters, but the signs of the SATAs are opposite in the preceding and subsequent winters during the non-WTWR years. PMID:28178351

  19. Climates

    Treesearch

    John R. Jones; Norbert V. DeByle

    1985-01-01

    The broad range of aspen in North America is evidence of its equally broad tolerance of wide variations in climate (Fowells 1965). Given open space for establishment and not too severe competition from other plants, aspen can survive from timberline on the tundra's edge to very warm temperate climates, and from the wet maritime climates of the coasts to very...

  20. Interannual Atmospheric Variability Simulated by a Mars GCM: Impacts on the Polar Regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, R. M.; Hollingsworth, J. L.

    2003-01-01

    It is often assumed that in the absence of year-to-year dust variations, Mars weather and climate are very repeatable, at least on decadal scales. Recent multi-annual simulations of a Mars GCM reveal however that significant interannual variations may occur with constant dust conditions. In particular, interannual variability (IAV) appears to be associated with the spectrum of atmospheric disturbances that arise due to baroclinic instability. One quantity that shows significant IAV is the poleward heat flux associated with these waves. These variations and their impacts on the polar heat balance will be examined here.

  1. North-South precipitation patterns in western North America on interannual-to-decadal timescales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Diaz, Henry F.; Meko, D.M.

    1998-01-01

    The overall amount of precipitation deposited along the West Coast and western cordillera of North America from 25??to 55??N varies from year to year, and superimposed on this domain-average variability are varying north-south contrasts on timescales from at least interannual to interdecadal. In order to better understand the north-south precipitation contrasts, their interannual and decadal variations are studied in terms of how much they affect overall precipitation amounts and how they are related to large-scale climatic patterns. Spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and spatial moments (domain average, central latitude, and latitudinal spread) of zonally averaged precipitation anomalies along the westernmost parts of North America are analyzed, and each is correlated with global sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature series, on interannual (defined here as 3-7 yr) and decadal (>7 yr) timescales. The interannual band considered here corresponds to timescales that are particularly strong in tropical climate variations and thus is expected to contain much precipitation variability that is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation; the decadal scale is defined so as to capture the whole range of long-term climatic variations affecting western North America. Zonal EOFs of the interannual and decadal filtered versions of the zonal-precipitation series are remarkably similar. At both timescales, two leading EOFs describe 1) a north-south seesaw of precipitation pivoting near 40??N and 2) variations in precipitation near 40??N, respectively. The amount of overall precipitation variability is only about 10% of the mean and is largely determined by precipitation variations around 40??-45??N and most consistently influenced by nearby circulation patterns; in this sense, domain-average precipitation is closely related to the second EOF. The central latitude and latitudinal spread of precipitation distributions are strongly influenced by precipitation

  2. Seasonal hypoxia in eutrophic stratified coastal shelves: mechanisms, sensibilities and interannual variability from the North-Western Black Sea case

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capet, A.; Beckers, J.-M.; Grégoire, M.

    2012-12-01

    The Black Sea north-western shelf (NWS) is a~shallow eutrophic area in which seasonal stratification of the water column isolates bottom waters from the atmosphere and prevents ventilation to compensate for the large consumption of oxygen, due to respiration in the bottom waters and in the sediments. A 3-D coupled physical biogeochemical model is used to investigate the dynamics of bottom hypoxia in the Black Sea NWS at different temporal scales from seasonal to interannual (1981-2009) and to differentiate the driving factors (climatic versus eutrophication) of hypoxic conditions in bottom waters. Model skills are evaluated by comparison with 14 500 in-situ oxygen measurements available in the NOAA World Ocean Database and the Black Sea Commission data. The choice of skill metrics and data subselections orientate the validation procedure towards specific aspects of the oxygen dynamics, and prove the model's ability to resolve the seasonal cycle and interannual variability of oxygen concentration as well as the spatial location of the oxygen depleted waters and the specific threshold of hypoxia. During the period 1981-2009, each year exhibits seasonal bottom hypoxia at the end of summer. This phenomenon essentially covers the northern part of the NWS, receiving large inputs of nutrients from the Danube, Dniestr and Dniepr rivers, and extends, during the years of severe hypoxia, towards the Romanian Bay of Constanta. In order to explain the interannual variability of bottom hypoxia and to disentangle its drivers, a statistical model (multiple linear regression) is proposed using the long time series of model results as input variables. This statistical model gives a general relationship that links the intensity of hypoxia to eutrophication and climate related variables. The use of four predictors allows to reproduce 78% of hypoxia interannual variability: the annual nitrate discharge (N), the sea surface temperature in the month preceding stratification (T), the

  3. Interannual variability of monthly sea-ice distributions in the north polar region

    SciTech Connect

    Parkinson, C.L.

    1992-03-01

    Passive-microwave data from the Nimbus 5 and Nimbus 7 satellites have been used to determine and map, by month, the interannual variability of the spatial distribution of north polar sea ice over the period 1973-1987. Results are illustrated for the months of January and July, during the winter ice growth and summer ice decay seasons, respectively. In January, the greatest interannual variability in the distribution of the ice occurs in the Sea of Okhotsk, whereas the portions of the ice edge exhibiting the least interannual variability lie in the southern Greenland Sea and immediately to the southwest of Svalbard. In July, spatial variability is high in Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay, the southern Kara Sea, and the northern Barents Sea. The monthly maps are meant to allow ready comparison with past and future sea ice distributions and aid in the assessment of whether specific changes are climatically important.

  4. Seasonal, interannual and event scale variation in North Pacific ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoo, Sinjae; Batchelder, Harold P.; Peterson, William T.; Sydeman, William J.

    2008-05-01

    slightly lagged) with those of phytoplankton with a few exceptions. Exceptions occur in the Eastern Subarctic Gyre where annual peaks of chlorophyll occur in autumn, after the peak in zooplankton biomass. Interannual variation of annually averaged chlorophyll in 30 regions show three patterns, one positively related to El Niño, one negatively related to El Niño, and one with longer-scale variation, possibly related to climate regimes. Nine regions did not match any of the three patterns. Interannual variation in zooplankton abundance/biomass from selected regions indicates that El Niño may be the major source of interannual variability with its effects modulated by longer-scale variation, such as by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Two well-documented environmental events in the Northern California Current, in 2002 and 2005, exemplify how short-term disruption in atmospheric forcing causes changes in ocean hydrography and circulation that has significant impacts on primary production and ripple effects throughout multiple trophic levels of the ecosystem. We conclude that a closer look at the data often yields interesting results that might not necessarily be gained by considering the broad generalizations. Specifically, we observe that short-term disruptions of the ecosystem at the primary producer level may impact higher trophic levels in nonlinear ways that lead to unpredic impacts when one considers the entire food chain.

  5. Interannual variability of tropospheric trace gases and aerosols: The role of biomass burning emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Marlier, Miriam E.; Faluvegi, Greg; Shindell, Drew T.; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Mangeon, Stéphane

    2015-07-01

    Fires are responsible for a range of gaseous and aerosol emissions. However, their influence on the interannual variability of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols has not been systematically investigated from a global perspective. We examine biomass burning emissions as a driver of interannual variability of large-scale abundances of short-lived constituents such as carbon monoxide (CO), hydroxyl radicals (OH), ozone, and aerosols using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE composition-climate model and a range of observations, with an emphasis on satellite information. Our model captures the observed variability of the constituents examined in most cases, but with substantial underestimates in boreal regions. The strongest interannual variability on a global scale is found for carbon monoxide (~10% for its global annual burden), while the lowest is found for tropospheric ozone (~1% for its global annual burden). Regionally, aerosol optical depth shows the largest variability which exceeds 50%. Areas of strong variability of both aerosols and CO include the tropical land regions (especially Equatorial Asia and South America) and northern high latitudes, while even regions in the northern midlatitudes experience substantial interannual variability of aerosols. Ozone variability peaks over equatorial Asia in boreal autumn, partly due to varying biomass burning emissions, and over the western and central Pacific in the rest of the year, mainly due to meteorological fluctuations. We find that biomass burning emissions are almost entirely responsible for global CO interannual variability, and similarly important for OH variability. The same is true for global and regional aerosol variability, especially when not taking into account dust and sea-salt particles. We show that important implications can arise from such interannual influences for regional climate and air quality.

  6. Seasonal and interannual variations of upper ocean heat balance off the west coast of Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Ming; Biastoch, Arne; BöNing, Claus; Caputi, Nick; Meyers, Gary

    2008-12-01

    The Leeuwin Current, a warm, poleward flowing eastern boundary current, dominates the surface circulation off the west coast of Australia and has profound influence on regional marine ecosystem and fisheries recruitment. In this study, the seasonal and interannual variations of upper ocean heat balance in the Leeuwin Current region are analyzed by using an eddy-resolving numerical model simulation, as a first step to quantify the climate impacts on regional ocean thermodynamics and marine ecosystem. The volume transport and heat advection of the Leeuwin Current are stronger during the austral winter on the seasonal cycle and are stronger during a La Nina event on the interannual scale. On both seasonal and interannual timescales, the mixed layer heat budget off the west coast of Australia is predominantly balanced between the variations of the Leeuwin Current heat advection and heat flux across the air-sea interface. On the interannual timescale, the variation of the Leeuwin Current heat advection tends to lead that of the air-sea (latent) heat flux by two months, which is likely a reflection of advection timescales of the Leeuwin Current and its eddy field. The interannual variation of the average February-April sea surface temperature off the west coast of Australia, which is crucial for the larval settlement of western rock lobster, is mostly influenced by the Leeuwin Current heat advection as well as the ocean memory from the previous austral winter, with the air-sea heat exchange playing a buffering role.

  7. Predictability of large interannual Arctic sea-ice anomalies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tietsche, Steffen; Notz, Dirk; Jungclaus, Johann H.; Marotzke, Jochem

    2013-11-01

    In projections of twenty-first century climate, Arctic sea ice declines and at the same time exhibits strong interannual anomalies. Here, we investigate the potential to predict these strong sea-ice anomalies under a perfect-model assumption, using the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model in the same setup as in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We study two cases of strong negative sea-ice anomalies: a 5-year-long anomaly for present-day conditions, and a 10-year-long anomaly for conditions projected for the middle of the twenty-first century. We treat these anomalies in the CMIP5 projections as the truth, and use exactly the same model configuration for predictions of this synthetic truth. We start ensemble predictions at different times during the anomalies, considering lagged-perfect and sea-ice-assimilated initial conditions. We find that the onset and amplitude of the interannual anomalies are not predictable. However, the further deepening of the anomaly can be predicted for typically 1 year lead time if predictions start after the onset but before the maximal amplitude of the anomaly. The magnitude of an extremely low summer sea-ice minimum is hard to predict: the skill of the prediction ensemble is not better than a damped-persistence forecast for lead times of more than a few months, and is not better than a climatology forecast for lead times of two or more years. Predictions of the present-day anomaly are more skillful than predictions of the mid-century anomaly. Predictions using sea-ice-assimilated initial conditions are competitive with those using lagged-perfect initial conditions for lead times of a year or less, but yield degraded skill for longer lead times. The results presented here suggest that there is limited prospect of predicting the large interannual sea-ice anomalies expected to occur throughout the twenty-first century.

  8. ENSO Modulations by Interannual Variability of Freshwater Forcing and Ocean Biology-induced Heating feedbacks in the Tropical Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, R. H.

    2015-12-01

    Recent studies have identified clear climate feedbacks associated with interannual variations in freshwater forcing (FWF) and ocean biology-induced heating (OBH) in the tropical Pacific. The interrelationships among the related anomaly fields are analyzed using hybrid coupled model (HCM) simulations to illustrate their combined roles in modulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The HCM-based supporting experiments are performed to isolate the related feedbacks, with interannually varying FWF and OBH being represented individually or collectively, which allows their effects to be examined in a clear way. It is demonstrated that the interannual freshwater forcing enhances ENSO variability and slightly prolongs the simulated ENSO period, while the interannual OBH reduces ENSO variability and slightly shortens the ENSO period, with their feedback effects tending to counteract each other.

  9. ENSO Modulations due to Interannual Variability of Freshwater Forcing and Ocean Biology-induced Heating in the Tropical Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Rong-Hua; Gao, Chuan; Kang, Xianbiao; Zhi, Hai; Wang, Zhanggui; Feng, Licheng

    2015-12-01

    Recent studies have identified clear climate feedbacks associated with interannual variations in freshwater forcing (FWF) and ocean biology-induced heating (OBH) in the tropical Pacific. The interrelationships among the related anomaly fields are analyzed using hybrid coupled model (HCM) simulations to illustrate their combined roles in modulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The HCM-based supporting experiments are performed to isolate the related feedbacks, with interannually varying FWF and OBH being represented individually or collectively, which allows their effects to be examined in a clear way. It is demonstrated that the interannual freshwater forcing enhances ENSO variability and slightly prolongs the simulated ENSO period, while the interannual OBH reduces ENSO variability and slightly shortens the ENSO period, with their feedback effects tending to counteract each other.

  10. ENSO Modulations due to Interannual Variability of Freshwater Forcing and Ocean Biology-induced Heating in the Tropical Pacific.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Rong-Hua; Gao, Chuan; Kang, Xianbiao; Zhi, Hai; Wang, Zhanggui; Feng, Licheng

    2015-12-18

    Recent studies have identified clear climate feedbacks associated with interannual variations in freshwater forcing (FWF) and ocean biology-induced heating (OBH) in the tropical Pacific. The interrelationships among the related anomaly fields are analyzed using hybrid coupled model (HCM) simulations to illustrate their combined roles in modulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The HCM-based supporting experiments are performed to isolate the related feedbacks, with interannually varying FWF and OBH being represented individually or collectively, which allows their effects to be examined in a clear way. It is demonstrated that the interannual freshwater forcing enhances ENSO variability and slightly prolongs the simulated ENSO period, while the interannual OBH reduces ENSO variability and slightly shortens the ENSO period, with their feedback effects tending to counteract each other.

  11. ENSO Modulations due to Interannual Variability of Freshwater Forcing and Ocean Biology-induced Heating in the Tropical Pacific

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Rong-Hua; Gao, Chuan; Kang, Xianbiao; Zhi, Hai; Wang, Zhanggui; Feng, Licheng

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have identified clear climate feedbacks associated with interannual variations in freshwater forcing (FWF) and ocean biology-induced heating (OBH) in the tropical Pacific. The interrelationships among the related anomaly fields are analyzed using hybrid coupled model (HCM) simulations to illustrate their combined roles in modulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The HCM-based supporting experiments are performed to isolate the related feedbacks, with interannually varying FWF and OBH being represented individually or collectively, which allows their effects to be examined in a clear way. It is demonstrated that the interannual freshwater forcing enhances ENSO variability and slightly prolongs the simulated ENSO period, while the interannual OBH reduces ENSO variability and slightly shortens the ENSO period, with their feedback effects tending to counteract each other. PMID:26678931

  12. Interannual surface salinity on Northwest Atlantic shelf

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grodsky, Semyon A.; Reul, Nicolas; Chapron, Bertrand; Carton, James A.; Bryan, Frank O.

    2017-05-01

    Sea surface salinity (SSS) from the Aquarius and SMOS satellite missions displays a steady increase of ˜1 psu over the entire northwestern Atlantic shelf south of Nova Scotia during 2011-2015. Put in the context of longer ocean profile data, the results suggest that mixed layer salinity and temperature north of the Gulf Stream experience positively correlated shelf-wide interannual oscillations (1 psu/2°C). Salty and warm events occur coincident with anomalous easterly-southeasterly winds and Ekman transport counteracting the mean southwestward shelf currents. They are coincident with weakening of both branches of the Scotian Shelf Current (SSC), but only moderately correlate with shifts of the Gulf Stream North Wall. This suggests that salt advection by anomalous SSC acting on the mean salinity gradient is the primary driver regulating the transport of fresh/cold water from high latitudes. The advection mechanism imposes a connectedness of the larger-scale interannual variability in this region and its tie to atmospheric oscillations. In the second part, an analysis of 15 year-long numerical simulations is presented which show eight interannual salinity oscillations (positive and negative). Six of these are driven by horizontal advection by slow varying currents (>2 months), while two events are driven by horizontal eddy advection (<2 months). In line with observations, salt/warm model events correspond to anomalously weak SSC, correlate with southeasterly wind anomaly, and confirm that interannual horizontal salt advection drives interannual salinity. Indeed, vertical exchanges provide negative feedback, while interannual horizontal diffusion and the net surface salt flux anomalies are small.

  13. Interannual variability of Winter Precipitation in Southeast China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ling; Fraedrich, Klaus; zhu, Xiuhua; Sielmann, Frank

    2014-05-01

    The observed winter (DJF) precipitation in Southeast China (1961-2010) is characterized by a monopole pattern of the three-monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3) whose interannual variability is related to the anomalies of East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) systems. Dynamic composites and linear regression analysis indicate that the intensity of EAWM and Siberia High (SH), the position of East Asian Trough (EAT), El Niño events and SST anomalies over South China Sea (SCS) influence different regions of anomalous Southeast China winter precipitation on interannual scales. The circulation indices (EAWM, SH and EAT) mainly affect the winter precipitation in the eastern part of Southeast China. El Niño events affect the South China winter precipitation due to the anticyclone anomalies over Philippines. The effect of SCS SST anomalies on the winter precipitation is mainly in the south part of Yangtze River. And the contributions from all the impact factors do not counteract with one another to generate the Southeast China winter precipitation variability. Thus, a set of circulation regimes, represented by a handful indices, provide the basis for modeling precipitation anomalies or extremes in future climate projections.

  14. 1996-2007 Interannual Spatio-Temporal Variability in Snowmelt in Two Montane Watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jepsen, S. M.; Molotch, N. P.; Williams, M. W.; Rittger, K. E.; Sickman, J. O.

    2010-12-01

    Snowmelt is a primary water resource for urban/agricultural centers and ecosystems near mountain regions. Stream chemistry from montane catchments is controlled by the flowpaths of water from snowmelt and the timing and duration of snow coverage. A process level understanding of the variability in these processes requires an understanding of the effect of changing climate and anthropogenic loading on spatio-temporal snowmelt patterns. With this as our objective, we applied a snow reconstruction model (SRM) to two well-studied montane watersheds, Tokopah Basin (TOK), California and Green Lake 4 Valley (GLV), Colorado, to examine interannual variability in the timing and location of snowmelt in response to variable climate conditions during the period from 1996 to 2007. The reconstruction model back solves for snowmelt by combining surface energy fluxes, inferred from meteorological data, with sequences of melt season snow images derived from satellite data (i.e., snowmelt depletion curves). The SRM explained 84% of the observed interannual variability in maximum watershed SWE in TOK, with errors ranging from -23 to +27% for the different years. For GLV4, the SRM explained 61% of the interannual variability, with errors ranging from -37 to +34%. In GLV4, interannual variability in snowmelt timing is a factor of four greater than the variability in streamflow timing, unlike in TOK where the ratio is nearly 1:1. We attribute this difference primarily to differences in the magnitude of the turbulent fluxes and the hydrogeology of the two study areas.

  15. Interannual variability of deep convection in the Northwestern Mediterranean simulated with a coupled AORCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    L'Hévéder, Blandine; Li, Laurent; Sevault, Florence; Somot, Samuel

    2013-08-01

    A hindcast experiment of the Mediterranean present-day climate is performed using a fully-coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Regional Climate Model (AORCM) for the Mediterranean basin. The new model, called LMDz-NEMO-Med, is composed of LMDz4-regional as atmospheric component and of NEMOMED8 as oceanic component. This AORCM equilibrates freely, without any flux adjustment, neither in fresh water nor in heat. At its atmospheric lateral boundary conditions, it is driven by ERA-40 data from 1958 to 2001, after a spin-up of 40 years in coupled configuration. The model performance is assessed and compared with available observational datasets. The model skill in reproducing mean state and inter-annual variability of main atmospheric and oceanic surface fields is in line with that of state-of-the-art AORCMs. Considering the ocean behaviour, the inter-annual variations of the basin-scale heat content are in very good agreement with the observations. The model results concerning salt content could not be adequately validated. High inter-annual variability of deep convection in the Gulf of Lion is simulated, with 53 % of convective winters, representative of the present climate state. The role of different factors influencing the deep convection and its inter-annual variability is examined, including dynamic and hydrostatic ocean preconditioning and atmospheric surface forcing. A conceptual framework is outlined and validated in linking the occurrence of deep convection to the efficiency of the integrated surface buoyancy fluxes along the winter season to mix the initially stratified averaged water column down to the convective threshold depth. This simple framework (based only on 2 independent variables) is able to explain 60 % (resp. 69 %) of inter-annual variability of the deep water formation rate (resp. maximum mixed layer depth) for the West Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW) formation process.

  16. Interannual Variability of Tropical Rainfall as Seen From TRMM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robertson, Franklin R.

    2005-01-01

    Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30deg N/S) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Although it is well documented that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with marked SST changes over the tropical oceans produce significant regional changes in precipitation, water vapor, and radiative fluxes in the tropics, we still cannot yet adequately quantify the associated net integrated changes to water and heat balance over the entire tropical oceanic or land sectors. Resolving this uncertainty is important since precipitation and latent heat release variations over land and ocean sectors are key components of the tropical heat balance in its most aggregated form. Rainfall estimates from the Version 5 Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) averaged over the tropical oceans have not solved this issue and, in fact, show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. In this paper we will focus on findings that uncertainties in microphysical assumptions necessitated by the single-frequency PR measurement pose difficulties for detecting climate-related precipitation signals. Recent work has shown that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series, yet the PR rainfall interannual variability (and attenuation derived predominantly from reflectivity) differs even in sign. We will explore these apparent inconsistencies and examine changes in new TRMM Version 6 retrievals. To place these results in a tropical water balance perspective we also examine interannual variations in evaporation over the tropical oceans made from TRMM and SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) measurements of surface

  17. 1996-2007 Interannual Spatio-Temporal Variability in Snowmelt in Two Montane Watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jepsen, S. M.; Molotch, N. P.; Rittger, K. E.

    2009-12-01

    Snowmelt is a primary water source for ecosystems within, and urban/agricultural centers near, mountain regions. Stream chemistry from montane catchments is controlled by the flowpaths of water from snowmelt and the timing and duration of snow coverage. A process level understanding of the variability in these processes requires an understanding of the effect of changing climate and anthropogenic loading on spatio-temporal snowmelt patterns. With this as our objective, we are applying a snow reconstruction model to two well-studied montane watersheds, Tokopah Basin (TOK), California and Green Lakes Valley (GLV), Colorado, to examine interannual variability in the timing and location of snowmelt in response to variable climate conditions during the period from 1996 to 2007. The reconstruction model back solves for snowmelt by combining surface energy fluxes, inferred from meteorological data, with sequences of melt season snow images derived from satellite data (i.e., snowmelt depletion curves). Preliminary model results for 2002 were tested against measured snow water equivalent (SWE) and hydrograph data for the two watersheds. The computed maximum SWE averaged over TOK and GLV were 94 cm (~+17% error) and 50.2 cm (~+1% error), respectively. We present an analysis of interannual variability in these errors, in addition to reconstructed snowmelt maps over different land cover types under changing climate conditions between 1996-2007, focusing on the variability with interannual variation in climate.

  18. What is the Effect of Interannual Hydroclimatic Variability on Water Supply Reservoir Operations?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galelli, S.; Turner, S. W. D.

    2015-12-01

    Rather than deriving from a single distribution and uniform persistence structure, hydroclimatic data exhibit significant trends and shifts in their mean, variance, and lagged correlation through time. Consequentially, observed and reconstructed streamflow records are often characterized by features of interannual variability, including long-term persistence and prolonged droughts. This study examines the effect of these features on the operating performance of water supply reservoirs. We develop a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) model that can incorporate a regime-shifting climate variable. We then compare the performance of operating policies—designed with and without climate variable—to quantify the contribution of interannual variability to standard policy sub-optimality. The approach uses a discrete-time Markov chain to partition the reservoir inflow time series into small number of 'hidden' climate states. Each state defines a distinct set of inflow transition probability matrices, which are used by the SDP model to condition the release decisions on the reservoir storage, current-period inflow and hidden climate state. The experimental analysis is carried out on 99 hypothetical water supply reservoirs fed from pristine catchments in Australia—all impacted by the Millennium drought. Results show that interannual hydroclimatic variability is a major cause of sub-optimal hedging decisions. The practical import is that conventional optimization methods may misguide operators, particularly in regions susceptible to multi-year droughts.

  19. Interannual variability in temperature and precipitation alone cannot explain Holocene glacier fluctuations in the Southern Alps of New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doughty, Alice; Mackintosh, Andrew; Anderson, Brian; Putnam, Aaron; Dadic, Ruzica; Barrell, David; Denton, George; Chinn, Trevor; Schaefer, Joerg

    2016-04-01

    Several glacial modeling studies suggest that interannual climate variability within an unchanged mean climate state can cause large fluctuations in glacier length (~1 km), which would complicate interpretations of moraine records as proxy evidence of past climatic change. We modeled glacier fluctuations forced by stochastic variability in mean annual temperature and total annual precipitation and compared them to the mapped and dated Holocene moraine sequence in the Cameron valley, New Zealand. Using a 2D coupled mass balance - ice flow model, we simulated interannual mass balance, ice volume, and glacier length changes and show that stochastic variability does not cause large advances (>300 m) of the Cameron Glacier. We suggest that the glacier has been responding to shifts in the mean climate, and thus its moraine record is a valuable indicator of past climate.

  20. Interannual Variability of Ozone and Ultraviolet Exposure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Herman, J. R.; Piacentini, R. D.; Ziemke, J.; Celarier, E.; Larko. D.

    1999-01-01

    Annual zonal averages of ozone amounts from Nimbus-7/TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) (1979 to 1992) are used to estimate the interannual variability of ozone and UVB (290 - 315 nm) irradiance between plus or minus 60 deg. latitude. Clear-sky interannual ozone and UVB changes are mainly caused by the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric winds, and can amount to plus or minus 15% at 300 nm and plus or minus 5% at 310 nm (or erythemal irradiance) at the equator and at middle latitudes. Near the equator, the interannual variability of ozone amounts and UV irradiance caused by the combination of the 2.3 year QBO and annual cycles implies that there is about a 5-year periodicity in UVB variability. At higher latitudes, the appearance of the interannual UVB maximum is predicted by the QBO, but without the regular periodicity. The 5-year periodic QBO effects on UVB irradiance are larger than the currently evaluated long-term changes caused by the decrease in ozone amounts.

  1. Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Primary Production at a Global Scale

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rousseaux, Cecile Severine; Gregg, Watson W.

    2013-01-01

    We used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of four phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. First, we assessed the contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production at a global scale for the period 1998-2011. Globally, diatoms contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production ((is)approximately 50%, the equivalent of 20 PgC·y1). Coccolithophores and chlorophytes each contributed approximately 20% ((is) approximately 7 PgC·y1) of the total primary production and cyanobacteria represented about 10% ((is) approximately 4 PgC·y1) of the total primary production. Primary production by diatoms was highest in the high latitudes ((is) greater than 40 deg) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We then assessed interannual variability of this group-specific primary production over the period 1998-2011. Globally the annual relative contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production varied by maximum 4% (1-2 PgC·y1). We assessed the effects of climate variability on group-specific primary production using global (i.e., Multivariate El Niño Index, MEI) and "regional" climate indices (e.g., Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability as indicated by significant correlation (p (is) less than 0.05) between the MEI and the group-specific primary production from all groups except coccolithophores. In the Atlantic, climate variability as indicated by NAO was significantly correlated to the primary production of 2 out of the 4 groups in the North Central Atlantic (diatoms/cyanobacteria) and in the North Atlantic (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). We found that climate variability as indicated by SAM had only a limited effect

  2. Interannual atmospheric variability forced by the deep equatorial Atlantic Ocean.

    PubMed

    Brandt, Peter; Funk, Andreas; Hormann, Verena; Dengler, Marcus; Greatbatch, Richard J; Toole, John M

    2011-05-26

    Climate variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is determined by large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions, which particularly affect deep atmospheric convection over the ocean and surrounding continents. Apart from influences from the Pacific El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, the tropical Atlantic variability is thought to be dominated by two distinct ocean-atmosphere coupled modes of variability that are characterized by meridional and zonal sea-surface-temperature gradients and are mainly active on decadal and interannual timescales, respectively. Here we report evidence that the intrinsic ocean dynamics of the deep equatorial Atlantic can also affect sea surface temperature, wind and rainfall in the tropical Atlantic region and constitutes a 4.5-yr climate cycle. Specifically, vertically alternating deep zonal jets of short vertical wavelength with a period of about 4.5 yr and amplitudes of more than 10 cm s(-1) are observed, in the deep Atlantic, to propagate their energy upwards, towards the surface. They are linked, at the sea surface, to equatorial zonal current anomalies and eastern Atlantic temperature anomalies that have amplitudes of about 6 cm s(-1) and 0.4 °C, respectively, and are associated with distinct wind and rainfall patterns. Although deep jets are also observed in the Pacific and Indian oceans, only the Atlantic deep jets seem to oscillate on interannual timescales. Our knowledge of the persistence and regularity of these jets is limited by the availability of high-quality data. Despite this caveat, the oscillatory behaviour can still be used to improve predictions of sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic. Deep-jet generation and upward energy transmission through the Equatorial Undercurrent warrant further theoretical study.

  3. North American Gross Primary Productivity: Regional Characterization and Interannual Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, I. T.; Denning, A.; Stockli, R.

    2009-12-01

    Seasonality and variability in North American photosynthetic activity are investigated. Using the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB) we simulate 24 years (1983-2006) and evaluate regional and seasonal contribution to annual mean Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) as well as its interannual variability. The largest productivity occurs in tropical Mexico, the southeast U.S. and small areas in the Pacific Northwest. Annual variability is largest in tropical Mexico, the desert Southwest, and the Midwestern corridor that separates the eastern forests from the intermountain west. We find that several areas (Midwest, Northeast, SouthWest, Boreal Canada) have an elevated contribution to interannual variability when compared to other regions, but no single region or season consistently determines continental annual GPP anomaly on an annual basis. GPP variability in NA is highly heterogeneous in space and time. We find that GPP variability is generally dependent upon soil moisture in low- and mid-latitudes, and on temperature in the north. Soil moisture is a better metric than raw precipitation as it integrates precipitation events temporally. EOF analysis shows no significance on an annual basis, but a band from the central plains through New England shows a coherent signal for springtime GPP anomalies. As the springtime anomaly is the largest contributor to the annual GPP variability in almost half of the years simulated (11 of 24), we can posit that this region has significant influence over annual North American GPP variability. However, when regressed against climate modes such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) or Pacific-North America (PNA) patterns, we find that no climate mode can be associated with variability over the entire region highlighted by the EOF analysis. Furthermore, we find that while a general response to temperature is seen (warmer spring implies longer growing season implies anomalous GPP uptake of carbon), in some regions the

  4. Sensitivity of the interannual variability of mineral aerosol simulations to meteorological forcing dataset

    DOE PAGES

    Smith, Molly B.; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Albani, Samuel; ...

    2017-03-07

    Interannual variability in desert dust is widely observed and simulated, yet the sensitivity of these desert dust simulations to a particular meteorological dataset, as well as a particular model construction, is not well known. Here we use version 4 of the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM4) with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to simulate dust forced by three different reanalysis meteorological datasets for the period 1990–2005. We then contrast the results of these simulations with dust simulated using online winds dynamically generated from sea surface temperatures, as well as with simulations conducted using other modeling frameworks but the same meteorological forcings, in order tomore » determine the sensitivity of climate model output to the specific reanalysis dataset used. For the seven cases considered in our study, the different model configurations are able to simulate the annual mean of the global dust cycle, seasonality and interannual variability approximately equally well (or poorly) at the limited observational sites available. Altogether, aerosol dust-source strength has remained fairly constant during the time period from 1990 to 2005, although there is strong seasonal and some interannual variability simulated in the models and seen in the observations over this time period. Model interannual variability comparisons to observations, as well as comparisons between models, suggest that interannual variability in dust is still difficult to simulate accurately, with averaged correlation coefficients of 0.1 to 0.6. Because of the large variability, at least 1 year of observations at most sites are needed to correctly observe the mean, but in some regions, particularly the remote oceans of the Southern Hemisphere, where interannual variability may be larger than in the Northern Hemisphere, 2–3 years of data are likely to be needed.« less

  5. Sensitivity of the interannual variability of mineral aerosol simulations to meteorological forcing dataset

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Molly B.; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Albani, Samuel; Perry, Aaron; Losno, Remi; Qu, Zihan; Marticorena, Beatrice; Ridley, David A.; Heald, Colette L.

    2017-03-01

    Interannual variability in desert dust is widely observed and simulated, yet the sensitivity of these desert dust simulations to a particular meteorological dataset, as well as a particular model construction, is not well known. Here we use version 4 of the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM4) with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to simulate dust forced by three different reanalysis meteorological datasets for the period 1990-2005. We then contrast the results of these simulations with dust simulated using online winds dynamically generated from sea surface temperatures, as well as with simulations conducted using other modeling frameworks but the same meteorological forcings, in order to determine the sensitivity of climate model output to the specific reanalysis dataset used. For the seven cases considered in our study, the different model configurations are able to simulate the annual mean of the global dust cycle, seasonality and interannual variability approximately equally well (or poorly) at the limited observational sites available. Overall, aerosol dust-source strength has remained fairly constant during the time period from 1990 to 2005, although there is strong seasonal and some interannual variability simulated in the models and seen in the observations over this time period. Model interannual variability comparisons to observations, as well as comparisons between models, suggest that interannual variability in dust is still difficult to simulate accurately, with averaged correlation coefficients of 0.1 to 0.6. Because of the large variability, at least 1 year of observations at most sites are needed to correctly observe the mean, but in some regions, particularly the remote oceans of the Southern Hemisphere, where interannual variability may be larger than in the Northern Hemisphere, 2-3 years of data are likely to be needed.

  6. Response of tree cover to interannual rainfall variability: the balance of direct and indirect effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, K.; D'Odorico, P.; Saha, M.; Ratajczak, Z.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change studies predict an increase both in seasonal and interannual rainfall variability. The impact of such variability on vegetation composition and ecosystem processes is not well understood. Using satellite data or model simulations, previous studies have reported mixed responses of tree cover to interannual rainfall variability in the tropic (i.e., neutral, positive, or negative). The underlying mechanisms behind such patterns, however, are still unclear. This study uses satellite data and develops a new mechanistic model to investigate the response of tree cover to increasing interannual rainfall variability along Kalahari Transect in Southern Africa. This model accounts for the competition between trees and grasses in access to soil water, fire-induced disturbance, and a demographic bottleneck in tree recruitment. Both satellite data and model results show an increase in tree cover with increasing interannual rainfall fluctuations in dry environments (i.e., mean annual rainfall, MAP<700 mm) but a decrease in tree cover in wet environments (i.e., MAP>700 mm). In dry environments, an increase in interannual rainfall variability disfavors grasses with shallow roots, thereby reducing fire-induced mortality in tree seedlings and opening windows of opportunity for tree recruitment (i.e., indirect effects). In wet environments, an increase in interannual rainfall variability leads to more instances of mass flow below the rooting zone of tree seedlings and thus reduces tree recruitment rate (i.e., direct effects). This study highlights the importance of accounting for the direct effects of rainfall variability on trees and the indirect effects mediated by tree-grass interactions to better understand how tree cover respond to increase in rainfall variability along rainfall gradients.

  7. Enhanced interannual precipitation variability increases plant functional diversity that in turn ameliorates negative impact on productivity.

    PubMed

    Gherardi, Laureano A; Sala, Osvaldo E

    2015-12-01

    Although precipitation interannual variability is projected to increase due to climate change, effects of changes in precipitation variance have received considerable less attention than effects of changes in the mean state of climate. Interannual precipitation variability effects on functional diversity and its consequences for ecosystem functioning are assessed here using a 6-year rainfall manipulation experiment. Five precipitation treatments were switched annually resulting in increased levels of precipitation variability while maintaining average precipitation constant. Functional diversity showed a positive response to increased variability due to increased evenness. Dominant grasses decreased and rare plant functional types increased in abundance because grasses showed a hump-shaped response to precipitation with a maximum around modal precipitation, whereas rare species peaked at high precipitation values. Increased functional diversity ameliorated negative effects of precipitation variability on primary production. Rare species buffered the effect of precipitation variability on the variability in total productivity because their variance decreases with increasing precipitation variance.

  8. Interannual influence of spring phenological transitions on the water use efficiency of forest ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Jiaxin; Wang, Ying

    2017-04-01

    Climate change has significantly influenced the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems through water cycles. Understanding the phenological regulation mechanisms underlying coupled carbon-water cycles is important for improving ecological assessments and projecting terrestrial ecosystem responses and feedback to climate change. In this study, we present an analysis of the interannual relationships among flux-based spring phenological transitions (referred as photosynthetic onset) and water use efficiency (WUE) in North America and Europe using 166 site-years of data from 22 flux sites, including 10 deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF) and 12 evergreen needleleaf forest (ENF) ecosystems. We found that the WUE responses to variations in spring phenological transitions differed substantially across plant functional types (PFTs) and growth periods. During the early spring (defined as one month from spring onset) in the DBF ecosystem, photosynthetic onset dominated changes in WUE by dominating gross primary production (GPP), with one day of advanced onset increasing the WUE by 0.037 gC kg-1H2O in early spring. For the ENF sites, although advanced photosynthetic onset also significantly promoted GPP, earlier onset did not have a significant positive impact on WUE in early spring because it was not significantly correlated to evapotranspiration (ET), which is a more dominant factor for WUE than GPP across the ENF sites. Statistically significant correlations were not observed between interannual variability in photosynthetic onset and WUE for either the DBF or ENF ecosystems following a prolonged period after photosynthetic onset. For the DBF sites, the interannual variability of photosynthetic onset provided a better explanation of the variations in WUE (ca. 51.4%) compared with climatic factors, although this was only applicable to the early spring. For the ENF sites, photosynthetic onset variations did not provide a better explanation of the interannual WUE variations

  9. Understanding the Role of Interannual Variability and Momentum Transfer on Wind Energy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koerner, S.; Brunsell, N. A.; Miller, L.; Mechem, D. B.

    2014-12-01

    Forecasting realistic wind power potential is essential for wind energy to assist with meeting future energy demands. Current wind power estimates rely on the use of mean climatological wind speeds. This approach to estimating wind power neglects the influence of momentum extraction by the turbines (i.e. turbine-turbine interactions) and interannual variability in windspeed. The present study will use a wind turbine parameterization within the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model to assess the role of interannual and climatic variability on power extraction. The WRF model will be forced by NARR, and run from 1980-2010 to incorporate different climatic conditions over the central United States. Analysis focusses on the role of climate variability on wind power extraction; specifically on the role of drought and wet periods, as well as variability in the Great Plains Low Level Jet. In addition, WRF will be used to assess the impact of wind turbines on each term of the momentum budget. Understanding the impact of interannual variability will improve our understanding of the role that wind power can play in meeting future energy demands.

  10. A conceptual model for the aperiodicity of interannual variability in the tropics

    SciTech Connect

    Krishnamurthy, V.; Goswami, B.N.; Legnani, R. )

    1993-03-19

    Short term climate fluctuations in the tropics are dominated by interannual variations such as the El Nino and Southern Oscillation. The predictability of climatic fluctuations depends on the nature of the variability. Although the ENSO has a dominant variation with a period of about four years, it is quite aperiodic with intervals between two events ranging from two to eight years. The power spectrum shows a dominant peak at about four years with a broad band around the maximum. The aperiodicity of ENSO results in an intrinsic limit on our ability to predict these variations. While a conceptual picture is emerging for the dominant four year periodicity such as the delayed oscillator mechanism, no such conceptual picture is available for the aperiodicity of the ENSO phenomenon. A major outstanding problem in the tropical climate predictability is, therefore, to understand the source of the aperiodicity in the interannual variability. The authors propose that the broad spectrum of interannual variability in the tropics with a peak around four years results from an interaction between the linear low frequency oscillatory mode of the coupled system and the nonlinear higher frequency modes of the system. They illustrate this using a conceptual model where the higher frequency modes, represented by a nonlinear low-order model, are coupled to a low frequency linear oscillator. 13 refs., 5 figs.

  11. Controls on interannual variability in lightning-caused fire activity in the western US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abatzoglou, John T.; Kolden, Crystal A.; Balch, Jennifer K.; Bradley, Bethany A.

    2016-04-01

    Lightning-caused wildfires account for a majority of burned area across the western United States (US), yet lightning remains among the more unpredictable spatiotemporal aspects of the fire environment and a challenge for both modeling and managing fire activity. A data synthesis of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, climate and fire data across the western US from 1992 to 2013 was conducted to better understand geographic variability in lightning-caused wildfire and the factors that influence interannual variability in lightning-caused wildfire at regional scales. Distinct geographic variability occurred in the proportion of fires and area burned attributed to lightning, with a majority of fires in the interior western US attributed to lightning. Lightning ignition efficiency was highest across the western portion of the region due to the concomitance of peak lightning frequency and annual nadir in fuel moisture in mid-to-late summer. For most regions the number of total and dry lightning strikes exhibited strong interannual correlation with the number of lightning-caused fires, yet were a poor predictor of area burned at regional scales. Commonality in climate-fire relationships for regional annual area burned by lightning- versus human-ignited fires suggests climate conditions, rather than lightning activity, are the predominant control of interannual variability in area burned by lightning-caused fire across much of the western US.

  12. Relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inter-annual variation of precipitation in Singapore during 1980-2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan

    2017-04-01

    Observed studies on inter-annual variation of precipitation provide insight into the response of precipitation to anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability. Inter-annual variation of precipitation results from the concurrent variations of precipitation frequency and intensity, understanding of the relative importance of frequency and intensity in the variability of precipitation can help fathom its changing properties. Investigation of the long-term changes of precipitation schemes has been extensively carried out in many regions across the world, however, detailed studies of the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inter-annual variation of precipitation are still limited, especially in the tropics. Therefore, this study presents a comprehensive framework to investigate the inter-annual variation of precipitation and the dominance of precipitation frequency and intensity in a tropical urban city-state, Singapore, based on long-term (1980-2013) daily precipitation series from 22 rain gauges. First, an iterative Mann-Kendall trend test method is applied to detect long-term trends in precipitation total, frequency and intensity at both annual and seasonal time scales. Then, the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inducing the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation total is analyzed using a dominance analysis method based on linear regression. The results show statistically significant upward trends in wet-day precipitation total, frequency and intensity at annual time scale, however, these trends are not evident during the monsoon seasons. The inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation intensity for most of the stations at annual time scale and during the Northeast monsoon season. However, during the Southwest monsoon season, the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation frequency. These results have

  13. Inter-annual variability and spatial coherence of net primary productivity across a western Oregon Cascades landscape

    Treesearch

    Travis J. Woolley; Mark E. Harmon; Kari B. O’Connell

    2015-01-01

    Inter-annual variability (IAV) of forest Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is a function of both extrinsic (e.g., climate) and intrinsic (e.g., stand dynamics) drivers. As estimates of NPP in forests are scaled from trees to stands to the landscape, an understanding of the relative effects of these factors on spatial and temporal behavior of NPP is important. Although a...

  14. Interannual variability in the surface energy budget and evaporation over a large southern inland water in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Qianyu; Liu, Heping

    2013-05-01

    Understanding how the surface energy budget and evaporation over inland waters respond to climate change and variability remains limited. Here we report 2 year measurements of the surface energy budget using the eddy covariance method over Ross Barnett Reservoir, Mississippi, USA, for 2008 and 2009. Annual mean sensible (H) and latent (LE) heat fluxes in 2008 were 9.5%, and 10.0% greater than in 2009, respectively. Most of the interannual variations in the surface energy fluxes and meteorological variables primarily occurred in the cool seasons from October to March, which was enhanced by frequent large wind events associated with cold front passages. These large wind events greatly promoted H and LE exchange and produced H and LE pulses that increased variations in H and LE between these two cool seasons. In the warm seasons from April to September, H and LE pulses were also present, which largely increased variations in LE and dampened those in H between the two warm seasons. The H and LE pulses contributed to approximately 50% of the annual H and 28% of the annual LE, although they only covered about 16% of the entire year. The interannual variations in H and LE pulses contributed to about 78% of the interannual variations in H and 40% of those in LE. Our results imply that the increased interannual variability in cold front activities as a result of climate change would amplify interannual variations in the evaporation and the surface energy exchange over inland waters in this region.

  15. The Effect of the Interannual Variability of the OH Sink on the Interannual Variability of the Atmospheric Methane Mixing Ratio and Carbon Stable Isotope Composition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guillermo Nuñez Ramirez, Tonatiuh; Houweling, Sander; Marshall, Julia; Williams, Jason; Brailsford, Gordon; Schneising, Oliver; Heimann, Martin

    2013-04-01

    The atmospheric hydroxyl radical concentration (OH) varies due to changes in the incoming UV radiation, in the abundance of atmospheric species involved in the production, recycling and destruction of OH molecules and due to climate variability. Variability in carbon monoxide emissions from biomass burning induced by El Niño Southern Oscillation are particularly important. Although the OH sink accounts for the oxidation of approximately 90% of atmospheric CH4, the effect of the variability in the distribution and strength of the OH sink on the interannual variability of atmospheric methane (CH4) mixing ratio and stable carbon isotope composition (δ13C-CH4) has often been ignored. To show this effect we simulated the atmospheric signals of CH4 in a three-dimensional atmospheric transport model (TM3). ERA Interim reanalysis data provided the atmospheric transport and temperature variability from 1990 to 2010. We performed simulations using time dependent OH concentration estimations from an atmospheric chemistry transport model and an atmospheric chemistry climate model. The models assumed a different set of reactions and algorithms which caused a very different strength and distribution of the OH concentration. Methane emissions were based on published bottom-up estimates including inventories, upscaled estimations and modeled fluxes. The simulations also included modeled concentrations of atomic chlorine (Cl) and excited oxygen atoms (O(1D)). The isotopic signal of the sources and the fractionation factors of the sinks were based on literature values, however the isotopic signal from wetlands and enteric fermentation processes followed a linear relationship with a map of C4 plant fraction. The same set of CH4emissions and stratospheric reactants was used in all simulations. Two simulations were done per OH field: one in which the CH4 sources were allowed to vary interannually, and a second where the sources were climatological. The simulated mixing ratios and

  16. Recurrent vulvovaginitis.

    PubMed

    Powell, Anna M; Nyirjesy, Paul

    2014-10-01

    Vulvovaginitis (VV) is one of the most commonly encountered problems by a gynecologist. Many women frequently self-treat with over-the-counter medications, and may present to their health-care provider after a treatment failure. Vulvovaginal candidiasis, bacterial vaginosis, and trichomoniasis may occur as discreet or recurrent episodes, and have been associated with significant treatment cost and morbidity. We present an update on diagnostic capabilities and treatment modalities that address recurrent and refractory episodes of VV.

  17. Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lunine, J.; Murdin, P.

    2000-11-01

    Earth's climate may be defined as the global physical condition, averaged over some period of time (typically decades or longer), of the EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE, OCEAN and ice sheets. It is the presence of a relatively dense atmosphere—third among the solid bodies of the solar system—that makes Earth habitable. Without the blanketing of infrared energy radiated from Earth's surface and lower atmospher...

  18. Meningioma recurrence

    PubMed Central

    Bencze, János; Varkoly, Gréta; Kouhsari, Mahan C; Klekner, Álmos

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Meningioma accounts for more than 30% of all intracranial tumours. It affects mainly the elderly above the age of 60, at a female:male ratio of 3:2. The prognosis is variable: it is usually favourable with no progression in tumour grade and no recurrence in WHO grade 1 tumours. However, a minority of tumours represent atypical (grade 2) or anaplastic (grade 3) meningiomas; this heterogeneity is also reflected in histopathological appearances. Irrespective of the grade, the size of the tumour and the localisation may have severe, sometimes lethal consequences. Following neurosurgical interventions to remove the tumour, recurrence and progression in WHO grade may occur. Our knowledge on predisposing histomorphological and molecular factors of recurrence is rather limited. These can be classified as I) demographic II) environmental, III) genetic and epigenetic IV) imaging, V) neuropathological, and VI) neurosurgical. In view of the complex background of tumour recurrence, the recognition of often subtle signs of increased risk of recurrence requires close collaboration of experts from several medical specialties. This multidisciplinary approach results in better therapy and fewer complications related to tumour recurrence. PMID:28352788

  19. Interannual and interdecadal variability in United States surface-air temperatures, 1910-87

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dettinger, M.D.; Ghil, M.; Keppenne, C.L.

    1995-01-01

    Monthly mean surface-air temperatures at 870 sites in the contiguous United States were analyzed for interannual and interdecadal variability over the time interval 1910-87. The temperatures were analyzed spatially by empirical-orthogonal-function analysis and temporally by singularspectrum analysis (SSA). The dominant modes of spatio-temporal variability are trends and nonperiodic variations with time scales longer than 15 years, decadal-scale oscillations with periods of roughly 7 and 10 years, and interannual oscillations of 2.2 and 3.3 years. Together, these modes contribute about 18% of the slower-than-annual United States temperature variance. Two leading components roughly capture the mean hemispheric temperature trend and represent a long-term warming, largest in the southwest, accompanied by cooling of the domain's southeastern quadrant. The extremes of the 2.2-year interannual oscillation characterize temperature differences between the Northeastern and Southwestern States, whereas the 3.3-year cycle is present mostly in the Western States. The 7- to 10-year oscillations are much less regular and persistent than the interannual oscillations and characterize temperature differences between the western and interior sectors of the United States. These continental- or regional-scale temperature variations may be related to climatic variations with similar periodicities, either global or centered in other regions; such variations include quasi-biennial oscillations over the tropical Pacific or North Atlantic and quasi-triennial oscillations of North Pacific sea-surface temperatures.

  20. Modelling interannual variation in the spring and autumn land surface phenology of the European forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodriguez-Galiano, Victor F.; Sanchez-Castillo, Manuel; Dash, Jadunandan; Atkinson, Peter M.; Ojeda-Zujar, Jose

    2016-06-01

    This research reveals new insights into the weather drivers of interannual variation in land surface phenology (LSP) across the entire European forest, while at the same time establishes a new conceptual framework for predictive modelling of LSP. Specifically, the random-forest (RF) method, a multivariate, spatially non-stationary and non-linear machine learning approach, was introduced for phenological modelling across very large areas and across multiple years simultaneously: the typical case for satellite-observed LSP. The RF model was fitted to the relation between LSP interannual variation and numerous climate predictor variables computed at biologically relevant rather than human-imposed temporal scales. In addition, the legacy effect of an advanced or delayed spring on autumn phenology was explored. The RF models explained 81 and 62 % of the variance in the spring and autumn LSP interannual variation, with relative errors of 10 and 20 %, respectively: a level of precision that has until now been unobtainable at the continental scale. Multivariate linear regression models explained only 36 and 25 %, respectively. It also allowed identification of the main drivers of the interannual variation in LSP through its estimation of variable importance. This research, thus, shows an alternative to the hitherto applied linear regression approaches for modelling LSP and paves the way for further scientific investigation based on machine learning methods.

  1. Interannual variability of the Adriatic Sea circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beg Paklar, Gordana; Sepic, Jadranka; Grbec, Branka; Dzoic, Tomislav; Kovac, Zarko; Ivatek-Sahdan, Stjepan

    2016-04-01

    The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) was implemented in order to reproduce interannual variability of the Adriatic Sea circulation. Simulations and model result analysis were performed for a three-year period from 1st January 2011 to 31st December 2013. ROMS model run was forced with realistic atmospheric fields obtained from meteorological model Aladin, climatological river discharges, tides and Mediterranean circulation imposed at the southern open boundary. Atmospheric forcing included momentum, heat and water fluxes calculated interactively from the Aladin surface fields during ROMS model simulations. Model results were compared with available CTD and ADCP measurements and discussed in the light of the climatological circulation and thermohaline properties of the Adriatic Sea and its coastal areas. Interannual variability in the Adriatic circulation is related to the prevailing atmospheric conditions, changes in the hydrological conditions and water mass exchange at the Otranto Strait. Basic features of the Adriatic circulation - basin-wide cyclonic circulation with several embedded smaller cyclonic gyres around main pits - are well reproduced by ROMS model. Modelled temperatures and salinities are within corresponding seasonal intervals, although measured profiles generally indicate stronger stratification than modelled ones. Summer circulation in 2011 with current reversal obtained along the eastern Adriatic coast was related to the sampling results of the early fish stages as well as to ARGO drifter movements. Simulated fields from the Adriatic scale model were used to prescribe the initial and open boundary conditions for the interannual simulation in the middle Adriatic coastal domain.

  2. Interannual Atmospheric Oscillations and Their Gravitational Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, Benjamin F.; Au, A. Y.

    2000-01-01

    Past studies have examined the effects of the interannual atmospheric oscillations (IAO), or often called teleconnection patterns, on the Earth's rotation, such as El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the quasi-biennial oscillation, and to a lesser extent the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The present study focuses on IAO's effects on the gravitational field and geocenter; the purpose is to be able to identify and isolate the contributions of each prominent IAO in relation to the total contribution of the atmosphere, in terms of their magnitudes, their geographical patterns, and their interannual time history. We use the 40-year NCEP reanalysis of the monthly, global atmospheric surface pressure field as our basic data set. The method we apply to isolate the IAOs is the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition which is widely used in meteorological investigations. We do the EOF analysis first on IAOs' seasonal signals (by "collapsing" the 40-year series into 12 mean-months for each grid point) and obtain estimates for their respective contributions. Then we remove these seasonal signals from the data to focus on the (broad-band) interannual EOFs. We examine ENSO, NAO, North Pacific Oscillation, and other less prominent IAOs that can be identified from our data set, and compute their respective contributions to the variation of global gravitational field and geocenter motion. Finally, we compare the results with the available observational data, and discuss the implications w.r.t. the upcoming space missions such as GRACE.

  3. Interannual and interdecadal variability in 335 years of central England temperatures.

    PubMed

    Plaut, G; Ghil, M; Vautard, R

    1995-05-05

    Understanding the natural variability of climate is important for predicting its near-term evolution. Models of the oceans' thermohaline and wind-driven circulation show low-frequency oscillations. Long instrumental records can help validate the oscillatory behavior of these models. Singular spectrum analysis applied to the 335-year-long central England temperature (CET) record has identified climate oscillations with interannual (7- to 8-year) and interdecadal (15- and 25-year) periods, probably related to the North Atlantic's wind-driven and thermohaline circulation, respectively. Statistical prediction of oscillatory variability shows CETs decreasing toward the end of this decade and rising again into the middle of the next.

  4. Interannual Variability of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) over Western Himalayas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tiwari, Sarita; Kar, Sarat C.; Bhatla, R.

    2016-04-01

    Considering the importance of snow and glaciers in the Himalayas for understanding the water cycle and for water resource management of the rivers originating from the Himalayan, interannual variability of snow accumulation process over Himalayas and surrounding region has been studied using snow water equivalent (SWE) data. Remote sensing data from National Snow and Ice Data Centre have been used. These data have been compared against ground (in situ) observations of SWE measured at several gauge stations in the Indian part of the Satluj River basin. Accumulated SWE from remote sensing data and ground observations in the Satluj River basin have good and significant correlation. These data have also been compared against the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast reanalysis-Interim (ERA-I). Upper air and surface data from the reanalyses have also been used to examine the atmospheric conditions when snowfall occurs and snow accumulates for the season. In this study, it is found that there is large interannual variation in SWE over western Himalayas and Satluj River basin (domain of interest). During excess years of snowfall, strong westerly winds are observed at 500 hPa over India. In wind anomaly, a cyclonic circulation is seen over northern parts of India with a deep trough along Pakistan, Rajasthan and Gujarat region. As a consequence of this trough, a moisture convergence zone is established in the region leading to more amount of snowfall. At the same time, during excess snow accumulation years, the air temperature from the surface to 500 hPa is colder than other years enabling the fallen snow to accumulate through the season.

  5. Sea level trends and interannual variability in the Caribbean Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torres, R.; Tsimplis, M.

    2012-04-01

    Sea level trends and interannual variability has been investigated in the Caribbean Sea using altimetry and tide gauge time series from 19 stations. Relative sea level trends range between -2.0 and 10.7 mm/y depending on the length of the available record. Records from stations longer than 40 years converge toward values between 1.2 - 5.2 mm/yr, still a significant range which in some stations is less and in some other significantly larger than the global average. The longest station, Cristobal (102 years) shows a trend of 1.9 mm/yr and, in addition a significant acceleration of 1.6±0.3 mm/y/cy. The observed sea level trends are not affected by the atmospheric pressure effect, within the levels of significance. They are also the same (within the levels of significance) at all seasons. Altimetry shows trends (over 18 years of data) with values up to 5.2 mm/y. In some areas the values are statistically insignificant, but at no areas statistically significant negative values are found. Steric trends from the top 800 m (over the period of altimetric observations) have a basin average trend of 1 mm/y, but it shows large spatial variability with negative trends of -7 mm/y in the Yucatan Basin and positive trends up to 4.9 mm/y in the Venezuela Basin. Decadal trends were found to vary significantly at tide-gauge records as well as altimetric and steric measurements. We further explore the residual interannual variability by comparison with surface wind and climatic indices. This analysis is supported by the Lloyd's Register Trust Fund project Marine Extremes.

  6. Projections of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation interannual variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grainger, Simon; Frederiksen, Carsten S.; Zheng, Xiaogu

    2017-02-01

    An analysis is made of the coherent patterns, or modes, of interannual variability of Southern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential height field under current and projected climate change scenarios. Using three separate multi-model ensembles (MMEs) of coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, the interannual variability of the seasonal mean is separated into components related to (1) intraseasonal processes; (2) slowly-varying internal dynamics; and (3) the slowly-varying response to external changes in radiative forcing. In the CMIP5 RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 experiments, there is very little change in the twenty-first century in the intraseasonal component modes, related to the Southern annular mode (SAM) and mid-latitude wave processes. The leading three slowly-varying internal component modes are related to SAM, the El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO), and the South Pacific wave (SPW). Structural changes in the slow-internal SAM and ENSO modes do not exceed a qualitative estimate of the spatial sampling error, but there is a consistent increase in the ENSO-related variance. Changes in the SPW mode exceed the sampling error threshold, but cannot be further attributed. Changes in the dominant slowly-varying external mode are related to projected changes in radiative forcing. They reflect thermal expansion of the tropical troposphere and associated changes in the Hadley Cell circulation. Changes in the externally-forced associated variance in the RCP8.5 experiment are an order of magnitude greater than for the internal components, indicating that the SH seasonal mean circulation will be even more dominated by a SAM-like annular structure. Across the three MMEs, there is convergence in the projected response in the slow-external component.

  7. Climate and developmental plasticity: interannual variability in grapevine leaf morphology

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The shape of leaves are dynamic, changing over evolutionary time between species, within a single plant producing different shaped leaves at successive nodes, during the development of a single leaf as it allometrically expands, and in response to the environment. Notably, strong correlations betwee...

  8. Interannual Variability of the Mars Atmosphere at Aphelion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shirley, J. H.; McConnochie, T. H.; Kleinboehl, A.; Schofield, J. T.; Kass, D. M.; Heavens, N. G.; McCleese, D. J.

    2012-12-01

    Mars' aphelion occurs in late northern spring, less than one Martian month prior to the northern summer solstice. Due to the large eccentricity (0.093) of the Mars orbit, solar irradiance is about one third lower at aphelion than at perihelion. Atmospheric temperatures and dust aerosol loading reach minimum values in the aphelion season, while water ice cloud amounts (particularly in the equatorial regions) attain annual maxima. Prior investigations indicate that the aphelion season Mars climate is highly repeatable from year to year. We compare zonally-averaged limb-sounding temperature and aerosol opacity profiles obtained by the Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) instruments during the aphelion seasons for 6 Mars Years (MY 25-27 and 29-31). While the results from both instruments are in good agreement for most latitude bins in middle latitudes, we find substantial interannual differences in temperature and dust and ice aerosol opacity at higher latitudes. Year-to-year variability of the polar atmosphere is evident in data from both TES and MCS, considered both separately and in combination.

  9. How are interannual modes of variability IOD, ENSO, SAM, AMO excited by natural and anthropogenic forcing?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maher, Nicola; Marotzke, Jochem

    2017-04-01

    Natural climate variability is found in observations, paleo-proxies, and climate models. Such climate variability can be intrinsic internal variability or externally forced, for example by changes in greenhouse gases or large volcanic eruptions. There are still questions concerning how external forcing, both natural (e.g., volcanic eruptions and solar variability) and anthropogenic (e.g., greenhouse gases and ozone) may excite both interannual modes of variability in the climate system. This project aims to address some of these problems, utilising the large ensemble of the MPI-ESM-LR climate model. In this study we investigate the statistics of four modes of interannual variability, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using the 100-member ensemble of MPI-ESM-LR the statistical properties of these modes (amplitude and standard deviation) can be assessed over time. Here we compare the properties in the pre-industrial control run, historical run and future scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP2.6) and present preliminary results.

  10. Recurrent novae

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hack, Margherita; Selvelli, Pierluigi

    1993-01-01

    Recurrent novae seem to be a rather inhomogeneous group: T CrB is a binary with a M III companion; U Sco probably has a late dwarf as companion. Three are fast novae; two are slow novae. Some of them appear to have normal chemical composition; others may present He and CNO excess. Some present a mass-loss that is lower by two orders of magnitude than classical novae. However, our sample is too small for saying whether there are several classes of recurrent novae, which may be related to the various classes of classical novae, or whether the low mass-loss is a general property of the class or just a peculiarity of one member of the larger class of classical novae and recurrent novae.

  11. Recurrent pericarditis.

    PubMed

    Imazio, M; Battaglia, A; Gaido, L; Gaita, F

    2017-05-01

    Recurrent pericarditis is the most troublesome complication of pericarditis occurring in 15 to 30% of cases. The pathogenesis is often presumed to be immune-mediated although a specific rheumatologic diagnosis is commonly difficult to find. The clinical diagnosis is based on recurrent pericarditis chest pain and additional objective evidence of disease activity (e.g. pericardial rub, ECG changes, pericardial effusion, elevation of markers of inflammation, and/or imaging evidence of pericardial inflammation by CT or cardiac MR). The mainstay of medical therapy for recurrent pericarditis is aspirin or a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) plus colchicine. Second-line therapy is considered after failure of such treatments and it is generally based on low to moderate doses of corticosteroids (e.g. prednisone 0.2 to 0.5 mg/kg/day or equivalent) plus colchicine. More difficult cases are treated with combination of aspirin or NSAID, colchicine and corticosteroids. Refractory cases are managed by alternative medical options, including azathioprine, or intravenous human immunoglobulins or biological agents (e.g. anakinra). When all medical therapies fail, the last option may be surgical by pericardiectomy to be recommended in well-experienced centres. Despite a significant impairment of the quality of life, the most common forms of recurrent pericarditis (usually named as "idiopathic recurrent pericarditis" since without a well-defined etiological diagnosis) have good long-term outcomes with a negligible risk of developing constriction and rarely cardiac tamponade during follow-up. The present article reviews current knowledge on the definition, diagnosis, aetiology, therapy and prognosis of recurrent pericarditis with a focus on the more recent available literature. Copyright © 2016 Société Nationale Française de Médecine Interne (SNFMI). Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

  12. The predicted CLARREO sampling error of the inter-annual SW variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doelling, D. R.; Keyes, D. F.; Nguyen, C.; Macdonnell, D.; Young, D. F.

    2009-12-01

    The NRC Decadal Survey has called for SI traceability of long-term hyper-spectral flux measurements in order to monitor climate variability. This mission is called the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) and is currently defining its mission requirements. The requirements are focused on the ability to measure decadal change of key climate variables at very high accuracy. The accuracy goals are set using anticipated climate change magnitudes, but the accuracy achieved for any given climate variable must take into account the temporal and spatial sampling errors based on satellite orbits and calibration accuracy. The time period to detect a significant trend in the CLARREO record depends on the magnitude of the sampling calibration errors relative to the current inter-annual variability. The largest uncertainty in climate feedbacks remains the effect of changing clouds on planetary energy balance. Some regions on earth have strong diurnal cycles, such as maritime stratus and afternoon land convection; other regions have strong seasonal cycles, such as the monsoon. However, when monitoring inter-annual variability these cycles are only important if the strength of these cycles vary on decadal time scales. This study will attempt to determine the best satellite constellations to reduce sampling error and to compare the error with the current inter-annual variability signal to ensure the viability of the mission. The study will incorporate Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) (Monthly TOA/Surface Averages) SRBAVG product TOA LW and SW climate quality fluxes. The fluxes are derived by combining Terra (10:30 local equator crossing time) CERES fluxes with 3-hourly 5-geostationary satellite estimated broadband fluxes, which are normalized using the CERES fluxes, to complete the diurnal cycle. These fluxes were saved hourly during processing and considered the truth dataset. 90°, 83° and 74° inclination precessionary orbits as

  13. Driver of the interannual variations of isotope in ice core from the middle of Tibetan Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shao, Lili; Tian, Lide; Cai, Zhongyin; Cui, Jiangpeng; Zhu, Dayun; Chen, Yanhui; Palcsu, László

    2017-05-01

    Understanding the climatic significance of stable isotope in precipitation and ice cores on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is of critical for the paleoclimate rebuilding. However, there is a gap between the seasonal control of precipitation and long-term isotope record from ice core. Here we present a well-dated ice core isotope record from the middle of the TP (mid-TP). Isotope variations in the past decades from this ice core show strong anti-phase relation with Southern Oscillation Index, confirming unequivocally that the large scale atmospheric circulation through the El Nino Southern Oscillation cycle, rather local climate parameters, controls the interannual signal in ice cores from the mid-TP. Results also show that the cloud top height in the northern Indian Ocean is in association with the interannual variations, confirming the same mechanism controlling the precipitation δ18O in southwest Asia and southeast Asia. The study will improve the understanding of the interannual change of Tibetan Plateau ice core isotope signal, and also the hydrological cycle in the southwest Asian region.

  14. Long-term trends and interannual variability of fires in South America during 2001-2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Y.; Randerson, J. T.; Morton, D. M.; Jin, Y.; Giglio, L.; Collatz, G. J.; Kasibhatla, P. S.; van der Werf, G.; Defries, R. S.

    2010-12-01

    Forest and savanna fires in South America have large impacts on ecosystems, air quality, and global climate. In this paper we investigated long-term trends and interannual variability of forest and savanna fires in South America during 2001-2009 based on multiple satellite datasets. We found that fires associated with the deforestation frontier in evergreen forests increased in the first half of the decade, peaked at 2005, and declined thereafter. Fires in deciduous forests in southern Bolivia, northern Argentina and western Paraguay were characterized by a consistent increasing trend. Savanna fires showed smaller interannual variability, except for a high (2007) and a low (2009) year. Time series of fire counts (FC), burned area, and GFED3 emissions demonstrated a moving fire front in the deforestation arc toward the interior of the Amazon. Fire intensity (FI), defined as the ratio of FC to the deforestation area, increased consistently during 2001-2007 and decreased in 2008. Fire persistence (FP), which is linked with high rates of fuel consumption including repeated human aggregation and burning of fuels, decreased at the deforestation frontier after 2004. We explored the possibility of using FP to estimate the FI and the deforestation area. The interannual variability of fire activity was found to be correlated with precipitation with variable time lags in different biomes. Climate variability and drought stress were related to ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation.

  15. Dynamics of the Chesapeake Bay outflow plume: Realistic plume simulation and its seasonal and interannual variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Long; Xia, Meng

    2016-02-01

    The three-dimensional unstructured-grid Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) was implemented for Chesapeake Bay and its adjacent coastal ocean to delineate the realistic Chesapeake Bay outflow plume (CBOP) as well as its seasonal and interannual variability. Applying the appropriate horizontal and vertical resolution, the model exhibited relatively high skill in matching the observational water level, temperature, and salinity from 2003 to 2012. The simulated surface plume structure was verified by comparing output to the HF radar current measurements, earlier field observations, and the MODIS and AVHRR satellite imagery. According to the orientation, shape, and size of the CBOP from both model snapshots and satellite images, five types of real-time plume behavior were detected, which implied strong regulation by wind and river discharge. In addition to the episodic plume modulation, horizontal and vertical structure of the CBOP exhibited variations on seasonal and interannual temporal scales. Seasonally, river discharge with a 1 month lag was primarily responsible for the surface plume area variation, while the plume thickness was mainly correlated to wind magnitude. On the interannual scale, river discharge was the predominant source of variability in both surface plume area and depth; however, the southerly winds also influenced the offshore plume depth. In addition, large-scale climate variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, could potentially affect the plume signature in the long term by altering wind and upwelling dynamics, underlining the need to understand the impacts of climate change on buoyant plumes, such as the CBOP.

  16. Intercomparison of interannual changes in NDVI from PAL and GIMMS in relation to evapotranspiration over northern Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suzuki, R.; Masuda, K.; Dye, D.

    2004-12-01

    Vegetation over an extensive area influences actual evapotranspiration (ET) from the land to the atmosphere mainly through transpiration activity. The authors' previous study (Suzuki and Masuda, 2004. J Meteor Soc Japan, 82, 1233 -- 1241) found an interannual covariability between ET and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) over a continental-scale land surface. This result suggested that vegetation controls interannual variation in ET, and therefore vegetation change must be considered to predict future climate. In this prior study, NDVI data from the Pathfinder AVHRR Land (PAL) dataset were analyzed. However, studies of NDVI interannual change are subject to uncertainty, because NDVI data often contain errors associated with sensor- and atmosphere-related effects. This study is aimed toward reducing this uncertainty by employing another major NDVI dataset, from the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling Studies (GIMMS) group, in addition to PAL. GIMMS-NDVI data were produced with a calibration method that differs from the one employed for PAL-NDVI data. An intercomparison of the PAL-NDVI and GIMMS-NDVI datasets provide an effective basis for further analysis of the covariability of NDVI and ET interannual changes. The analysis was carried out for the northern Asia region from 1982 to 2000. 19-year interannual changes (monthly anomalies) in the PAL-NDVI and GIMMS-NDVI values were compared. The correlation coefficient (R) in summer months exhibits high positive values (over 0.8 in June). This result indicates that PAL-NDVI and GIMMS-NDVI display similar interannual variation for active growing season months. Interannual change in PAL-NDVI and GIMMS-NDVI were both compared with interannual change in model-assimilated ET. Although the R between GIMMS-NDVI and ET is slightly less than for PAL-NDVI and ET, for both NDVI datasets the annual maximum correlation with ET occurs in June, which is near the central period of the growing season. A positive

  17. Effects of Uncertainty in TRMM Precipitation Radar Path Integrated Attenuation on Interannual Variations of Tropical Oceanic Rainfall

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Fitzjarrald, Dan E.; Kummerow, Christian D.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30 deg N/S) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Time series of rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) over the tropical oceans show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. We show that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series. Further analysis of the frequency distribution of PR (2A25 product) rain rates suggests that the algorithm incorporates the attenuation measurement in a very conservative fashion so as to optimize the instantaneous rain rates. Such an optimization appears to come at the expense of monitoring interannual climate variability.

  18. Recurrent Pericarditis.

    PubMed

    Imazio, Massimo; Gribaudo, Elena; Gaita, Fiorenzo

    Recurrent pericarditis is the most common and troublesome complication of pericarditis affecting 20% to 50% of patients. Its pathogenesis is often presumed to be immune-mediated, but additional investigations are needed to clarify the pathogenesis in order to develop etiology-oriented therapies. Imaging with computed tomography and especially cardiac magnetic resonance holds promise to help in the identification of more difficult cases and improve their management. Refractory recurrent pericarditis with corticosteroid dependence and colchicine resistance remain still an unsolved issue in search of new therapies, although old drugs such as azathioprine, intravenous immunoglobulins, and biological agents seem promising, but new randomized clinical trials are needed to confirm their role. Despite compromising the quality of life, idiopathic recurrent pericarditis has an overall good long-term outcome without mortality and significant risk of constrictive pericarditis evolution. The risk of constriction, the most feared complication, is related to the etiology and not the number of recurrences. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. The Elastic Response of the Earth to Interannual Variations in Antarctic Precipitation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hager, Bradford H.; Conrad, Clinton P.

    1995-01-01

    Measurements of elastic displacements of the bedrock surrounding large ice sheets have been proposed as a means to detect mass changes in these ice sheets. However, accumulation of glacial mass on the ice sheets is a noisy process, subject to large spatial and temporal variations in precipitation. We simulated the response of the Antarctic continent to a stochastic model of interannual precipitation variations and found that interannual variations in the elastic response of the earth are large when compared to the long-term mean of displacements produced by an assumed average ice mass imbalance of 10%. If, as some scientists predict, Antarctic ice mass changes in the future become dramatic, the long-term signal should be large enough to be detected by a few years of geodetic measurements, despite climatic noise.

  20. An interpretation of the interannual mass trend change over the Indochina Peninsula observed by GRACE data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamamoto, K.; Fukuda, Y.; Nakaegawa, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Taniguchi, M.

    2010-12-01

    In Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, a project “Human Impacts on Urban Subsurface Environments” to assess impacts of human activities on urban subsurface environment in several Asian developing cities is now in progress. Although one of the main purposes of the project is to investigate local groundwater systems on and around the urban cities, the project also aims to understand large-scale landwater movements including the areas, and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite gravity data is used for the purpose. In the previous study (Yamamoto et al., 2010), we recovered the regional-scale interannual landwater mass variation over the Indochina Peninsula, which includes one of the test cities in the project, i.e. Bangkok, Thailand, by using GRACE data. The recovered mass variation showed the change of the interannual trend at around the beginning of 2005: it decreased up to the beginning of 2005, and after that, increased up to 2009. The compared results with observed/modeled hydrological and meteorological data sets showed that the observed trend change did not caused by regional human activities, e.g. excessive groundwater pumping, but caused by global-scale meteorological phenomena. In fact, the interannual mass variation showed high correlation with the climate index represents the intensity of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomena. In this study, we investigated the correlation mechanism between the interannual mass change in the Indochina Peninsula and the IOD phenomena, which is the spatial anomaly pattern of sea surface temperature. We firstly made the moisture flux data sets in the GRACE mission duration by using atmospheric objective reanalysis data. The obtained flux pattern was discussed by comparing with the typical flux pattern during the pure IOD years estimated by Ummenhofer et al., 2009. Further, the moisture flux over the Indochina Peninsula was assessed whether the value is quantitatively agreeable by comparing with

  1. Analysis of the Relationship Between Climate and NDVI Variability at Global Scales

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zeng, Fan-Wei; Collatz, G. James; Pinzon, Jorge; Ivanoff, Alvaro

    2011-01-01

    interannual variability in modeled (CASA) C flux is in part caused by interannual variability in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR). This study confirms a mechanism producing variability in modeled NPP: -- NDVI (FPAR) interannual variability is strongly driven by climate; -- The climate driven variability in NDVI (FPAR) can lead to much larger fluctuation in NPP vs. the NPP computed from FPAR climatology

  2. Harnessing Historical Climate Variability to Assess Multivariate Climate Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahony, C. R.; Cannon, A. J.; Aitken, S. N.

    2015-12-01

    Climate is intrinsically multivariate—the collective influence of various aspects of weather at different times of year. A central challenge of climate change impact analysis is therefore to characterize changes in multiple temperature and precipitation variables simultaneously. Historical climate variability provides key context for relating climate variables to each other and assessing collective deviations from historical climate conditions. We have developed a Mahalanobian probability metric to describe spatial and temporal climatic dissimilarity in terms of local interannual climatic variability. Our approach is particularly suited to evaluation of climate analogs in space and time, but also facilitates multivariate extensions to several prominent indices of climate change. We use this metric to detect the departure of multivariate climate conditions from the historical range of local variability across North America and to identify regions that are particularly susceptible to emergence of no-analog climates. With respect to interpreting climate extremes, some critical considerations emerge from this research. In particular, we highlight the potential for temporal aggregation to exaggerate the statistical significance of extreme conditions, and the dilemma of identifying an appropriate statistical distribution for precipitation across both space and time. Despite the challenges of interpreting the specific impacts associated with multivariate climate changes and extremes, expressing these conditions relative to historical climate variability provides a useful first approximation of their ecological and socioeconomic significance. Figure Caption: Demonstration of the use of the chi distribution to measure spatial climatic dissimilarity in terms of local interannual climatic variability.

  3. Interannual growth dynamics of vegetation in the Kuparuk River watershed, Alaska based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hope, A.S.; Boynton, W.L.; Stow, D.A.; Douglas, D.C.

    2003-01-01

    Interannual above-ground production patterns are characterized for three tundra ecosystems in the Kuparuk River watershed of Alaska using NOAA-AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data. NDVI values integrated over each growing season (SINDVI) were used to represent seasonal production patterns between 1989 and 1996. Spatial differences in ecosystem production were expected to follow north-south climatic and soil gradients, while interannual differences in production were expected to vary with variations in seasonal precipitation and temperature. It was hypothesized that the increased vegetation growth in high latitudes between 1981 and 1991 previously reported would continue through the period of investigation for the study watershed. Zonal differences in vegetation production were confirmed but interannual variations did not covary with seasonal precipitation or temperature totals. A sharp reduction in the SINDVI in 1992 followed by a consistent increase up to 1996 led to a further hypothesis that the interannual variations in SINDVI were associated with variations in stratospheric optical depth. Using published stratospheric optical depth values derived from the SAGE and SAGE-II satellites, it is demonstrated that variations in these depths are likely the primary cause of SINDVI interannual variability.

  4. Interannual and Decadal Variability of Summer Rainfall over South America

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhou, Jiayu; Lau, K.-M.

    1999-01-01

    Using the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Merged Analysis of Precipitation product along with the Goddard Earth Observing System reanalysis and the Climate Analysis Center sea surface temperature (SST) data, we conduct a diagnostic study of the interannual and decadal scale variability of summer rainfall over South America. Results show three leading modes of rainfall variation identified with interannual, decadal, and long-term trend variability. Together, these modes explain more than half the total variance. The first mode is highly correlated with El Nino/southern oscillation (ENSO), showing severe drought over Northeast Brazil and copious rainfall over the Ecuador coast and the area of Uruguay-Southern Brazil in El Nino years. This pattern is attributed to the large scale zonal shift of the Walker circulation and local Hadley cell anomaly induced by positive (negative) SST anomaly over the eastern (western) equatorial Pacific. In El Nino years, two convective belts indicated by upper tropospheric velocity potential trough and mid-tropospheric rising motion, which are somewhat symmetric about the equator, extend toward the northeast and the southeast into the tropical North and South Atlantic respectively. Sandwiched between the ascent is a region of descending motion over Northeast Brazil. The southern branch of the anomalous Hadley cell is dynamically linked to the increase of rainfall over Uruguay-Southern Brazil. The regional response of anomalous circulation shows a stronger South American summer monsoon and an enhanced (weakened) subtropical high over the South Atlantic (South Pacific) Ocean. The decadal variation displays a meridional shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is tie to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient over the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. In conjunction with this mode is a large scale mass swing between the polar regions and midlatitudes in both hemispheres. Over the South Atlantic and the South Pacific

  5. Interannual variations of the Gobi Desert area from 1982-1999

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Fangfang; Price, Kevin P.; Ellis, James; Feddema, Johannes J.

    2003-07-01

    There continues to be controversies among scientists whether humans are contributing to land degradation (desertification) in arid and semi-arid regions of the world. One area of considerable interest is the Gobi desert of central Asia, which is one of the largest deserts on Earth. The Gobi Desert is of particular value for addressing this question because it is divided by two countries that employ vastly different land management practices. Land use in China is high intensity and in Mongolia land use is of low intensity. In this study, climate and satellite remotely sensed data from 1982-1999 were used to investigate interannual variations in the areal extent the Gobi Desert boundary. Our results show substantial year-to-year variations in the size of the Gobi desert which was strongly correlated with annual precipitation (R2 = 0.81, P<0.000). Based on results of logistical analysis of the climatic and remotely sensed data, an actual evapotransporation threshold of 180 mm per year was identified as the factor for discriminating between areas of desert and steppes within the study area. Correlation values between the areal extend of the desert and climate data were highly significant for study areas in both Mongolia and Inner Mongolia, suggesting that at the scale of our study, human activities contributed little to interannual desert boundary fluctuation. Due to data availability constraints, we were only able to examine satellite imagery over an 18- year period which did not include both a wet and dry cycle for this region. Therefore, a more complete understanding of Gobi Desert boundary response to interannual climatic variation will require studies extended over a longer time period.

  6. Potential of new machine learning methods for understanding long-term interannual variability of carbon and energy fluxes and states from site to global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reichstein, M.; Jung, M.; Bodesheim, P.; Mahecha, M. D.; Gans, F.; Rodner, E.; Camps-Valls, G.; Papale, D.; Tramontana, G.; Denzler, J.; Baldocchi, D. D.

    2016-12-01

    Machine learning tools have been very successful in describing and predicting instantaneous climatic influences on the spatial and seasonal variability of biosphere-atmosphere exchange, while interannual variability is harder to model (e.g. Jung et al. 2011, JGR Biogeosciences). Here we hypothesize that innterannual variability is harder to describe for two reasons. 1) The signal-to-noise ratio in both, predictors (e.g. remote sensing) and target variables (e.g. net ecosystem exchange) is relatively weak, 2) The employed machine learning methods do not sufficiently account for dynamic lag and carry-over effects. In this presentation we can largely confirm both hypotheses: 1) We show that based on FLUXNET data and an ensemble of machine learning methods we can arrive at estimates of global NEE that correlate well with the residual land sink overall and CO2 flux inversions over latitudinal bands. Furthermore these results highlight the importance of variations in water availability for variations in carbon fluxes locally, while globally, as a scale-emergent property, tropical temperatures correlate well with the atmospheric CO2 growth rate, because of spatial anticorrelation and compensation of water availability. 2) We evidence with synthetic and real data that machine learning methods with embed dynamic memory effects of the system such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are able to better capture lag and carry-over effect which are caused by dynamic carbon pools in vegetation and soils. For these methods, long-term replicate observations are an essential asset.

  7. Marginal Lands Gross Primary Production Dominate Atmospheric CO2 Interannual Variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahlström, A.; Raupach, M. R.; Schurgers, G.; Arneth, A.; Jung, M.; Reichstein, M.; Smith, B.

    2014-12-01

    Since the 1960s terrestrial ecosystems have acted as a substantial sink for atmospheric CO2, sequestering about one quarter of anthropogenic emissions in an average year. Variations in this land carbon sink are also responsible for most of the large interannual variability in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. While most evidence places the majority of the sink in highly productive forests and at high latitudes experiencing warmer and longer growing seasons, the location and the processes governing the interannual variations are still not well characterised. Here we evaluate the hypothesis that the long-term trend and the variability in the land CO2 sink are respectively dominated by geographically distinct regions: the sink by highly productive lands, mainly forests, and the variability by semi-arid or "marginal" lands where vegetation activity is strongly limited by water and therefore responds strongly to climate variability. Using novel analysis methods and data from both upscaled flux-tower measurements and a dynamic global vegetation model, we show that (1) the interannual variability in the terrestrial CO2 sink arises mainly from variability in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP); (2) most of the interannual variability in GPP arises in tropical and subtropical marginal lands, where negative anomalies are driven mainly by warm, dry conditions and positive anomalies by cool, wet conditions; (3) the variability in the GPP of high-latitude marginal lands (tundra and shrublands) is instead controlled by temperature and light, with warm bright conditions resulting in positive anomalies. The influence of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) on the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 concentrations is mediated primarily through climatic effects on GPP in marginal lands, with opposite signs in subtropical and higher-latitude regions. Our results show that the land sink of CO2 (dominated by forests) and its interannual variability (dominated by marginal lands) are

  8. Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: from basics to applications

    PubMed Central

    Palmer, T.N; Doblas-Reyes, F.J; Hagedorn, R; Weisheimer, A

    2005-01-01

    The development of multi-model ensembles for reliable predictions of inter-annual climate fluctuations and climate change, and their application to health, agronomy and water management, are discussed. PMID:16433088

  9. The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set version 1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Day, Jonathan J.; Tietsche, Steffen; Collins, Mat; Goessling, Helge F.; Guemas, Virginie; Guillory, Anabelle; Hurlin, William J.; Ishii, Masayoshi; Keeley, Sarah P. E.; Matei, Daniela; Msadek, Rym; Sigmond, Michael; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Hawkins, Ed

    2016-06-01

    Recent decades have seen significant developments in climate prediction capabilities at seasonal-to-interannual timescales. However, until recently the potential of such systems to predict Arctic climate had rarely been assessed. This paper describes a multi-model predictability experiment which was run as part of the Arctic Predictability and Prediction On Seasonal to Interannual Timescales (APPOSITE) project. The main goal of APPOSITE was to quantify the timescales on which Arctic climate is predictable. In order to achieve this, a coordinated set of idealised initial-value predictability experiments, with seven general circulation models, was conducted. This was the first model intercomparison project designed to quantify the predictability of Arctic climate on seasonal to interannual timescales. Here we present a description of the archived data set (which is available at the British Atmospheric Data Centre), an assessment of Arctic sea ice extent and volume predictability estimates in these models, and an investigation into to what extent predictability is dependent on the initial state. The inclusion of additional models expands the range of sea ice volume and extent predictability estimates, demonstrating that there is model diversity in the potential to make seasonal-to-interannual timescale predictions. We also investigate whether sea ice forecasts started from extreme high and low sea ice initial states exhibit higher levels of potential predictability than forecasts started from close to the models' mean state, and find that the result depends on the metric. Although designed to address Arctic predictability, we describe the archived data here so that others can use this data set to assess the predictability of other regions and modes of climate variability on these timescales, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

  10. Can the teleconnection indices explain the interannual variability of Daphnia phenology ? A case study in Lake Iseo, northern Italy.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beluzzi, Stefano; Leoni, Barbara; Salmaso, Nico; Manca, Marina

    2013-04-01

    In the last years, increasing interest has been shown on the impact of inter-annual climate variability on zooplankton. Several teleconnection indices have been successfully applied in order to explain inter-annual variations in zooplankton and phytoplankton seasonal dynamics. During the winter months (December-February), the East Atlantic pattern (EADJF) and the Eastern Mediterranean Pattern (EMPDJF) showed a clear relationship with the variables directly connected with the winter climate and limnological variables in the large lakes south of the Alps. A recent study carried out in the lakes Maggiore and Garda confirmed that the impact of the winter large scale atmospheric patterns was detectable also on the phenology of Daphnia populations. We extended the same approach to zooplankton of Lake Iseo, the fourth largest and deepest italian lake, with costant characteristic of meso-eutrophy during last decades. We analysed data from 1998 to 2012, focusing on population dynamics of Daphnia sp., the most important larger filter feeder in this lake. The results showed a link between the interannual climate fluctuations and the development of Daphnia. Our observations are consistent with the patterns obtained in the lakes Maggiore and Garda. Overall, the results confirm that these indices may help to detect and predict the effect of the impact of climate change on populations and freshwater ecosystems.

  11. Multiplex Recurrence Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eroglu, Deniz; Marwan, Norbert

    2017-04-01

    The complex nature of a variety of phenomena in physical, biological, or earth sciences is driven by a large number of degrees of freedom which are strongly interconnected. Although the evolution of such systems is described by multivariate time series (MTS), so far research mostly focuses on analyzing these components one by one. Recurrence based analyses are powerful methods to understand the underlying dynamics of a dynamical system and have been used for many successful applications including examples from earth science, economics, or chemical reactions. The backbone of these techniques is creating the phase space of the system. However, increasing the dimension of a system requires increasing the length of the time series in order get significant and reliable results. This requirement is one of the challenges in many disciplines, in particular in palaeoclimate, thus, it is not easy to create a phase space from measured MTS due to the limited number of available obervations (samples). To overcome this problem, we suggest to create recurrence networks from each component of the system and combine them into a multiplex network structure, the multiplex recurrence network (MRN). We test the MRN by using prototypical mathematical models and demonstrate its use by studying high-dimensional palaeoclimate dynamics derived from pollen data from the Bear Lake (Utah, US). By using the MRN, we can distinguish typical climate transition events, e.g., such between Marine Isotope Stages.

  12. Seasonal and interannual changes in cirrus

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wylie, Donald P.

    1990-01-01

    Statistics on cirrus clouds using the multispectral data from the GOES/VAS satellite have been collected since 1985. The method used to diagnose cirrus clouds and a summary of the first two years of data was given in Wylie and Menzel (1989) and at the 1988 FIRE meeting in Vail, CO. This study was expanded to three years of data which allows a more detailed discussion of the geographical and seasonal changes in cloud cover. Interannual changes in cloud cover also were studied. GOES/VAS cloud retrievals also were compared to atmospheric dynamic parameters and to radiative attenuation data taken by a lidar. Some of the highlights of these studies are discussed.

  13. Interannual variations of NDVI over Africa and their relationship to ENSO: 1982-1995

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anyamba, Assaf

    1997-10-01

    A fourteen year monthly data set of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) measurements for Africa is used as a proxy indicator for interannual climate variability. The data have been analyzed at two temporal scales: short time scale, 2-5 years and long time scale, 14 years. Using standardized Principal Components Analysis (PCA), spatial and temporal patterns are extracted. The first five, and sometimes six components extracted represent patterns related to the time integral of NDVI, various modes of seasonality and anomalies related sensor degradation. There is evidence of two or more interannual patterns immediately following the seasonal components that are related to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). One of the modes of interannual variation detected, affecting most particularly East Africa and the Sahel, does not exhibit a consistent ENSO relationship. In particular instances the interannual components related to ENSO are separated into two components, a deficiency of the analysis technique to resolve phenomena that propagate over space. In order to examine the geographic patterns of ENSO manifestation, growing season anomaly maps are derived and fitted using trend surface techniques. The derived surfaces illustrate that there are two types of alternating patterns of ENSO manifestation over Southern Africa. Type I, characteristic of the 1986-87 and 1994-95 ENSO warm events, are characterized by movement from the southwest to the northeast, Type II, 1982-83 and 1991-92 events are characterized by a more or less stationary drought cell that shows limited movement but with a tendency to grow out in a cellular manner during the growing season. Analysis of the entire time series shows three dominant modes of interannual variability, the Sahel-East Africa component related to QBO, a southeastern Africa component centered over eastern Zimbabwe and Mozambique closely related to ENSO, and lastly an anomaly pattern centered over Botswana, South Africa and the

  14. Future changes of interannual variation of the Asian summer monsoon precipitation using the CMIP5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamizawa, Nozomi; Takahashi, Hiroshi G.

    2015-04-01

    The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region is one of the most populated areas in the world. Since the life of people who live in the region and the industry are strongly dependent on the ASM precipitation, it is interested that how it would change under the circumstance of global warming. Many studies have reported that the mean ASM precipitation would increase by comparing the CMIP models' climatology. Although the changes in mean climate are important, the long-term changes of interannual variability in precipitation are also significant. This study investigated the long-term trend of interannual precipitation variation over the ASM region by using 22 CMIP5 models. The RCP4.5 scenario was used. To investigate the long-term trend of the interannual variation of the ASM precipitation, each model data was recreated to 2.5 degree resolution and a running standard deviation for 21 years of June-July-August (JJA) precipitation were calculated. Next, we created the coefficient variation (CV) by dividing the running standard deviation by the mean JJA precipitation. Then we run a Mann-Kendall test for the CV at each grid. There were more areas which were indicated a statistically significant increasing trend than a decreasing trend in the ASM region. 40.6% of the region indicated an increasing trend in the future. On the other hand, 16.8% of the area was indicated to have a decreasing trend. It was also common in the global scale that the there were more areas that indicated an increasing trend than a decreasing trend. We also divided the area into three groups: land, shore and open ocean. In the ASM region, the shore areas particularly had an increasing CV trend. To investigate the long-term changes of the interannual variability of the precipitation and the atmospheric circulation over the ASM region, we conducted a composite analysis for the five wettest and driest years for two periods: the early 21st century (2007-2031) and the late 21st century (2076-2100). The special

  15. Feedback Attributions to the Interannual Variation of the Dominant Modes of the East Asian Winter Monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yana; Yang, Song

    2016-04-01

    This study investigates the interannual variation and feedback attributions of the East Asian Winter Monsoon for the period of 1979-2013. The variations of winter mean surface air temperature are dominated by two distinct principal modes, which account for 70.9% of the total variance. The interannual variation of the northern mode features high correlations with the variations of the Arctic Oscillation, the Siberia High, and the tropoical Indian Ocean Dipole, while the southern mode is strongly linked to the East Asia trough and the atmospheric circulation over the northwestern Pacific. To find the main factors which affect the two different modes, this study decomposes the surface air temperature interannual variation into various feedback attributions by applying a climate feedback-response analysis method. The results indicate that the surface cooling associated with the northern mode is mainly contributed by the feedback processes of atmospheric dynamics, cloud, and sensible heating. For the southern mode, the surface cooling is mainly attributed to the atmospheric dynamic process, sensible heating, and water vapor, while the oceanic dynamics and heat storage process induces a negative effect that warms the surface.

  16. Interannual variation of global net radiation flux as measured from space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Ping; Wild, Martin; Ruymbeke, Michel; Thuillier, Gérard; Meftah, Mustapha; Karatekin, Ozgur

    2016-06-01

    The global net radiation flux (NRF) in and out of the climate system at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) varies at interannual time scales, reflecting the complexity of the processes responsible for attaining global energy equilibrium. These processes are investigated in this study using the previously unexplored data acquired by a bolometric type sensor installed in the PICARD microsatellite. The obtained anomalies in the NRF (PICARD-NRF) are compared to the global NRF changes at the TOA measured by the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System mission (CERES-NRF). The interanual PICARD-NRF is strongly correlated with the matching period CERES-NRF; the bootstrapped correlation at the 95%(+0.85 and +0.97) confidence intervals is +0.93. Consistency in the interannual variability in the NRF derived by two completely independent measurement systems enhances confidence in the estimated magnitude of these variations. To reveal the possible drivers of the NRF interannual variability, the NRF values were compared with the multivariate El Niño-Southern Oscillation index.

  17. The Seasonal and Interannual Variability of the Budgets of N2O and CCl3F

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wong, Sun; Prather, Michael J.; Rind, David H.

    1999-01-01

    The 6-year wind archives from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies/Global Climate-Middle Atmosphere Model (GISS/GCMAM) were in- put to the GISS/Harvard/Irvine Chemical Transport Model (G/H/I CTM) to study the seasonal and interannual variability of the budgets and distributions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and trichlorofluoromethane (CCl3F), with the corresponding chemical loss frequencies recycled and boundary conditions kept unchanged from year to year. The effects of ozone feedback and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) were not included. However, the role of circulation variation in driving the lifetime variability is investigated. It was found that the global loss rates of these tracers are related to the extratropical planetary wave activity, which drives the tropical upward mass flux. For N2O, a semiannual signal in the loss rate variation is associated with the interhemispheric asymmetry in the upper stratospheric wave activity. For CCl3F, the semiannual signal is weaker, associated with the comparatively uniform wave episodes in the lower stratosphere. The loss rates lag behind the wave activity by about 1-2 months. The interannual variation of the GCM generated winds drives the interannual variation of the annually averaged lifetime. The year-to-year variations of the annually averaged lifetimes can be about 3% for N2O and 4% for CCl3F.

  18. Interannual variability in net community production at the Western Antarctic Peninsula region (1997-2014)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Zuchuan; Cassar, Nicolas; Huang, Kuan; Ducklow, Hugh; Schofield, Oscar

    2016-07-01

    In this study, we examined the interannual variability of net community production (NCP) in the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) using in situ O2/Ar-NCP estimates (2008-2014) and satellite data (SeaWiFS and MODIS-Aqua) from 1997 to 2014. We found that NCP generally first peaks offshore and follows sea-ice retreat from offshore to inshore. Annually integrated NCP (ANCP) displays an onshore-to-offshore gradient, with coastal and shelf regions up to 8 times more productive than offshore regions. We examined potential drivers of interannual variability in the ANCP using an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The EOF's first mode explains ˜50% of the variance, with high interannual variability observed seaward of the shelf break. The first principal component is significantly correlated with the day of sea-ice retreat (R = -0.58, p < 0.05), as well as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate indices in austral spring. Although the most obvious pathway by which the day of sea-ice retreat influences NCP is by controlling light availability early in the growing season, we found that the effect of day of sea-ice retreat on NCP persists throughout the growing season, suggesting that additional controls, such as iron availability, are preconditioned or correlated to the day of sea-ice retreat.

  19. Mechanisms of Interannual Variations of the Meridional Overturning Circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cabanes, Cecile; Lee, Tong; Fu, Lee-Lueng

    2008-01-01

    The authors investigate the nature of the interannual variability of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the North Atlantic Ocean using an Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) assimilation product for the period of 1993-2003. The time series of the first empirical orthogonal function of the MOC is found to be correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, while the associated circulation anomalies correspond to cells extending over the full ocean depth. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that the wind is responsible for most of this interannual variability, at least south of 40(deg)N. A dynamical decomposition of the meridional streamfunction allows a further look into the mechanisms. In particular, the contributions associated with 1) the Ekman flow and its depth-independent compensation, 2) the vertical shear flow, and 3) the barotropic gyre flowing over zonally varying topography are examined. Ekman processes are found to dominate the shorter time scales (1.5-3 yr), while for longer time scales (3-10 yr) the MOC variations associated with vertical shear flow are of greater importance. The latter is primarily caused by heaving of the pycnocline in the western subtropics associated with the stronger wind forcing. Finally, how these changes in the MOC affect the meridional heat transport (MHT) is examined. It is found that overall, Ekman processes explain a larger part of interannual variability (3-10 yr) for MHT (57%) than for the MOC (33%).

  20. Sole larval supply to coastal nurseries: Interannual variability and connectivity at interregional and interpopulation scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Savina, M.; Lunghi, M.; Archambault, B.; Baulier, L.; Huret, M.; Le Pape, O.

    2016-05-01

    Simulating fish larval drift helps assess the sensitivity of recruitment variability to early life history. An individual-based model (IBM) coupled to a hydrodynamic model was used to simulate common sole larval supply from spawning areas to coastal and estuarine nursery grounds at the meta-population scale (4 assessed stocks), from the southern North Sea to the Bay of Biscay (Western Europe) on a 26-yr time series, from 1982 to 2007. The IBM allowed each particle released to be transported by currents, to grow depending on temperature, to migrate vertically depending on development stage, to die along pelagic stages or to settle on a nursery, representing the life history from spawning to metamorphosis. The model outputs were analysed to explore interannual patterns in the amounts of settled sole larvae at the population scale; they suggested: (i) a low connectivity between populations at the larval stage, (ii) a moderate influence of interannual variation in the spawning biomass, (iii) dramatic consequences of life history on the abundance of settling larvae and (iv) the effects of climate variability on the interannual variability of the larvae settlement success.

  1. Inter-annual Variability of Snowfall in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, L.

    2016-12-01

    Winter snowfall, particularly lake-effect snowfall, impacts all aspects of Michigan life in the wintertime, from motorsports and tourism to impacting the day-to-day lives of residents. Understanding the inter-annual variability of winter snowfall will provide sound basis for local community safety management and improve weather forecasting. This study attempts to understand the trend in winter snowfall and the influencing factors of winter snowfall variability in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan (LPM) using station snowfall measurements and statistical analysis. Our study demonstrates that snowfall has significantly increased from 1932 to 2015. Correlation analysis suggests that regionally average air temperatures have a strong negative relationship with snowfall in LPM. On average, approximately 27% of inter-annual variability in snowfall can be explained by regionally average air temperatures. ENSO events are also negatively related to snowfall in LPM and can explain 8% of inter-annual variability. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) does not have strong influence on snowfall. Composite analysis demonstrates that on annual basis, more winter snowfall occurs during the years with higher maximum ice cover (MIC) than during the years with lower MIC in Lake Michigan. Higher MIC is often associated with lower air temperatures which are negatively related to winter snowfall. This study could provide insight on future snow related climate model improvement and weather forecasting.

  2. Interannual variation of convectively-coupled equatorial waves and their association with environmental factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Lu; Chen, Lin

    2016-12-01

    Convectively-coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) are fundamental components of tropical convection, which are important for weather and climate prediction. However, their interannual variation mechanism has received limited attention to date. By employing 6-hourly satellite-based brightness temperature data from 1983 to 2009, this study investigates the interannual variation of three dominant CCEWs. The results show that the Kelvin wave and the n = 1 westward inertia gravity (WIG) wave display maximum variability over the central Pacific at the equator in boreal winter. Intensity variations in both waves show good correlation relationship with local thermodynamic condition (i.e., sea surface temperature and moisture) and local dynamic condition (i.e., vertically sheared zonal flow). Abundant humidity and weak vertically sheared zonal flow appear in the years of intensified wave activity, whereas less humidity and strong westerly sheared flows appear in the years of suppressed wave activity. Sensitivity numerical experiments show that background moisture are important for both waves, while wind shear can only impact n = 1 WIG wave. A westerly sheared flow tends to suppress the n = 1 WIG wave in the lower troposphere, and thus results in weakened wave growth. n = 1 equatorial Rossby (ER) wave displays maximum variability over the southern Pacific during boreal winter. Its intensity variation is poorly related with local environmental factors but is significantly correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. The results indicate that a different mechanism might be needed to explain the interannual variation of n = 1 ER wave.

  3. Mechanisms of Interannual Variations of the Meridional Overturning Circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cabanes, Cecile; Lee, Tong; Fu, Lee-Lueng

    2008-01-01

    The authors investigate the nature of the interannual variability of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the North Atlantic Ocean using an Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) assimilation product for the period of 1993-2003. The time series of the first empirical orthogonal function of the MOC is found to be correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, while the associated circulation anomalies correspond to cells extending over the full ocean depth. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that the wind is responsible for most of this interannual variability, at least south of 40(deg)N. A dynamical decomposition of the meridional streamfunction allows a further look into the mechanisms. In particular, the contributions associated with 1) the Ekman flow and its depth-independent compensation, 2) the vertical shear flow, and 3) the barotropic gyre flowing over zonally varying topography are examined. Ekman processes are found to dominate the shorter time scales (1.5-3 yr), while for longer time scales (3-10 yr) the MOC variations associated with vertical shear flow are of greater importance. The latter is primarily caused by heaving of the pycnocline in the western subtropics associated with the stronger wind forcing. Finally, how these changes in the MOC affect the meridional heat transport (MHT) is examined. It is found that overall, Ekman processes explain a larger part of interannual variability (3-10 yr) for MHT (57%) than for the MOC (33%).

  4. The Interannual Stability of Cumulative Frequency Distributions for Convective System Size and Intensity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mohr, Karen I.; Molinari, John; Thorncroft, Chris D,

    2010-01-01

    The characteristics of convective system populations in West Africa and the western Pacific tropical cyclone basin were analyzed to investigate whether interannual variability in convective activity in tropical continental and oceanic environments is driven by variations in the number of events during the wet season or by favoring large and/or intense convective systems. Convective systems were defined from TRMM data as a cluster of pixels with an 85 GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature below 255 K and with an area at least 64 km 2. The study database consisted of convective systems in West Africa from May Sep for 1998-2007 and in the western Pacific from May Nov 1998-2007. Annual cumulative frequency distributions for system minimum brightness temperature and system area were constructed for both regions. For both regions, there were no statistically significant differences among the annual curves for system minimum brightness temperature. There were two groups of system area curves, split by the TRMM altitude boost in 2001. Within each set, there was no statistically significant interannual variability. Sub-setting the database revealed some sensitivity in distribution shape to the size of the sampling area, length of sample period, and climate zone. From a regional perspective, the stability of the cumulative frequency distributions implied that the probability that a convective system would attain a particular size or intensity does not change interannually. Variability in the number of convective events appeared to be more important in determining whether a year is wetter or drier than normal.

  5. Interannual Drivers of Circulation and Heat Exchange in the Coral Triangle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sexton, S. C.; Haidvogel, D. B.; Curchitser, E. N.

    2016-02-01

    The Coral Triangle (CT) has complex geometry, topography and dynamics. Here, we seek to understand the role of global climate forcing in producing regional changes in circulation and heat exchange. Volume and heat transport time series at 30 key passages throughout the CT are obtained from a 40-year hindcast simulation using the Regional Ocean Modeling System. Power spectral densities of the time series show a rich spatial distribution of response time scales, including prominent contributions from secular, inter-annual, annual, and higher-frequency signals. Multivariate analysis is employed to correlate the simulated time series with observed indices of global climate variability. The resulting analysis suggests the ways in which CT ecosystems may be susceptible to future global climate change.

  6. Interannual variability: a crucial component of space use at the territory level.

    PubMed

    Uboni, Alessia; Vucetich, John A; Stahler, Daniel R; Smith, Douglas W

    2015-01-01

    Interannual variability in space use and how that variation is influenced by density-dependent and density-independent factors are important processes in population ecology. Nevertheless, interannual variability has been neglected by the majority of space use studies. We assessed that variation for wolves living in 15 different packs within Yellowstone National Park during a 13-year period (1996-2008). We estimated utilization distributions to quantify the intensity of space use within each pack's territory each year in summer and winter. Then, we used the volume of intersection index (VI) to quantify the extent to which space use varied from year to year. This index accounts for both the area of overlap and differences in the intensity of use throughout a territory and ranges between 0 and 1. The mean VI index was 0.49, and varied considerably, with approximately 20% of observations (n = 230) being <0.3 or >0.7. In summer, 42% of the variation was attributable to differences between packs. These differences can be attributable to learned behaviors and had never been thought to have such an influence on space use. In winter, 34% of the variation in overlap between years was attributable to interannual differences in precipitation and pack size. This result reveals the strong influence of climate on predator space use and underlies the importance of understanding how climatic factors are going to affect predator populations in the occurrence of climate change. We did not find any significant association between overlap and variables representing density-dependent processes (elk and wolf densities) or intraspecific competition (ratio of wolves to elk). This last result poses a challenge to the classic view of predator-prey systems. On a small spatial scale, predator space use may be driven by factors other than prey distribution.

  7. Interannual sandbar variability within the Columbia River Littoral Cell

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ortiz, J. P.; Cohn, N.; Ruggiero, P.

    2013-12-01

    Examining nearshore sandbar behavior is highly relevant to understanding past and predicting future coastal change because of the role that these morphologic features play in regional sand budgets. However, because of the difficulty and expense of collecting nearshore bathymetric data, relatively few long-term data sets of sandbar morphology exist. At sites where sufficient data has been collected, a common phenomenon observed is a cyclic, multi-year offshore migration of sandbars. This cycle typically follows a general three-stage conceptual model of net offshore migration (NOM) originally proposed by Ruessink and Kroon (1994) whereby each individual bar is: (1) generated close to shore, (2) migrates seaward, and (3) decays at the outer margin of the nearshore zone. One such location where a clear NOM cycle has been observed is in the Columbia River Littoral Cell (CRLC).The CRLC is a high energy, dissipative coast located in northwest Oregon and southwest Washington which is characterized by fine sand and an intense wave climate. A beach morphology monitoring program that includes annual nearshore bathymetry surveys and quarterly subaerial beach topography measurements was initiated in 1997 (Ruggiero et al., 2005). Data from this long-term field effort indicates that there are large spatial and temporal differences in bar behavior throughout the littoral cell, but that in general there is a net offshore movement of the bars on interannual time scales. In this study, the high-resolution coastal profile data from the beach monitoring program are used to specifically evaluate bar dynamics along the Long Beach subcell of the CRLC. Parameters such as bar crest position from the shoreline, bar crest depth, and bar height have been extracted from the dataset and are being used to evaluate both spatial and temporal trends in bar morphology. Initial results indicate that NOM cycles have approximately three-year return periods in Long Beach. Further analysis will focus on

  8. Interannual Variability of Boreal Summer Rainfall in the Equatorial Atlantic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gu, Guojun; Adler, Robert F.

    2007-01-01

    Tropical Atlantic rainfall patterns and variation during boreal summer [June-July-August (JJA)] are quantified by means of a 28-year (1979-2006) monthly precipitation dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Rainfall variability during boreal spring [March-April-May (MAM)] is also examined for comparison in that the most intense interannual variability is usually observed during this season. Comparable variabilities in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) strength and the basin-mean rainfall are found during both seasons. Interannual variations in the ITCZ's latitudinal location during JJA however are generally negligible, in contrasting to intense year-to-year fluctuations during MAM. Sea surface temperature (SST) oscillations along the equatorial region (usually called the Atlantic Nino events) and in the tropical north Atlantic (TNA) are shown to be the two major local factors modulating the tropical Atlantic climate during both seasons. During MAM, both SST modes tend to contribute to the formation of an evident interhemispheric SST gradient, thus inducing anomalous shifting of the ITCZ and then forcing a dipolar structure of rainfall anomalies across the equator primarily in the western basin. During JJA the impacts however are primarily on the ITCZ strength likely due to negligible changes in the ITCZ latitudinal location. The Atlantic Nino reaches its peak in JJA, while much weaker SST anomalies appear north of the equator in JJA than in MAM, showing decaying of the interhemispheric SST mode. SST anomalies in the tropical central-eastern Pacific (the El Nino events) have a strong impact on tropical Atlantic including both the tropical north Atlantic and the equatorial-southern Atlantic. However, anomalous warming in the tropical north Atlantic following positive SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific disappears during JJA because of seasonal changes in the large-scale circulation cutting off the ENSO influence passing through the

  9. Interannual variability of surface radiative fluxes and rainfall in the semi-arid Sahel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guichard, F.; Grippa, M.; Kergoat, L.; Hiernaux, P.; Mougin, E.; Timouk, F.; Delbart, N.

    2009-04-01

    difference can reach up to 30 W.m-2 on average over the month of August. This difference in Rnet is not related to an enhancement of the incoming longwave flux, LWin actually fluctuates by less than 5 W.m-2. More rain in August is associated with less incoming shortwave radiation, with a difference of about 10W.m-2. At this monthly time scale, variations of Rnet are more largely explained by changes in surface properties. This involves the vegetation dynamics, which accounts for large interannual fluctuations of albedo (Samain et al., J. Geophys. Res. 2008, http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2007JD009174.shtml). However, the processes accounting for the interannual variability of the upwelling longwave flux, LWup, are found to be at least as important as albedo effects when accounting for changes in Rnet. LWup decreases sharply in response to the succession of rainfall events in this region where soil temperature reaches very high values in Spring. At larger time scale (June to September average), LWup and rainfall are also found to be strongly and consistently related. As the interannual variability of shortwave incoming and upwelling flux partly balance each other, the upwelling longwave flux LWup appears as a major driver of the interannual variability of Rnet. These results emphasize the strong couplings taking place in the Sahelian climate between surface radiation, energy fluxes and the water cycle. They point to the significance of a variety of processes, among which aerosols and vegetation-related processes cannot be neglected. Finally, they provide valuable guidance for models over an area where interactions among processes are complex and climate projections currently very uncertain.

  10. Dynamical evidence for causality between galactic cosmic rays and interannual variation in global temperature

    SciTech Connect

    Tsonis, Anastasios A.; Deyle, Ethan R.; May, Robert M.; Sugihara, George; Swanson, Kyle; Verbeten, Joshua D.; Wang, Geli

    2015-03-02

    As early as 1959, it was hypothesized that an indirect link between solar activity and climate could be mediated by mechanisms controlling the flux of galactic cosmic rays (CR). Although the connection between CR and climate remains controversial, a significant body of laboratory evidence has emerged at the European Organization for Nuclear Research and elsewhere, demonstrating the theoretical mechanism of this link. In this article, we present an analysis based on convergent cross mapping, which uses observational time series data to directly examine the causal link between CR and year-to-year changes in global temperature. Despite a gross correlation, we find no measurable evidence of a causal effect linking CR to the overall 20th-century warming trend. Furthermore, on short interannual timescales, we find a significant, although modest, causal effect between CR and short-term, year-to-year variability in global temperature that is consistent with the presence of nonlinearities internal to the system. Thus, although CR do not contribute measurably to the 20th-century global warming trend, they do appear as a nontraditional forcing in the climate system on short interannual timescales.

  11. Dynamical evidence for causality between galactic cosmic rays and interannual variation in global temperature

    DOE PAGES

    Tsonis, Anastasios A.; Deyle, Ethan R.; May, Robert M.; ...

    2015-03-02

    As early as 1959, it was hypothesized that an indirect link between solar activity and climate could be mediated by mechanisms controlling the flux of galactic cosmic rays (CR). Although the connection between CR and climate remains controversial, a significant body of laboratory evidence has emerged at the European Organization for Nuclear Research and elsewhere, demonstrating the theoretical mechanism of this link. In this article, we present an analysis based on convergent cross mapping, which uses observational time series data to directly examine the causal link between CR and year-to-year changes in global temperature. Despite a gross correlation, we findmore » no measurable evidence of a causal effect linking CR to the overall 20th-century warming trend. Furthermore, on short interannual timescales, we find a significant, although modest, causal effect between CR and short-term, year-to-year variability in global temperature that is consistent with the presence of nonlinearities internal to the system. Thus, although CR do not contribute measurably to the 20th-century global warming trend, they do appear as a nontraditional forcing in the climate system on short interannual timescales.« less

  12. Impacts of absorbing aerosols on interannual and intraseasonal variability of the South Asian monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lau, W. K. M.; Kim, K. M.; Shi, J. J.; Tao, W. K.

    2015-12-01

    Aerosol-monsoon interactions on the interannual and intraseasonal variability of the South Asian monsoon are investigated from observations and modeling. On interannual time scales, we found from observations, and confirm with coupled ocean-atmosphere climate modeling, that absorbing aerosols (mainly desert dust and BC), can significantly amplifying the ENSO impact on the Indian monsoon, through precipitation and circulation feedback induced by the EHP effect. On intraseasonal time scales, modeling studies with the high-resolution WRF regional climate model demonstrated that EHP combined with the semi-direct and microphysics effects, associated with enhanced desert dust transported from the Middle East deserts across the Arabian Sea to the Indian subcontinent, may alter the moisture transport pathways, suppress the development of monsoon depression over northeastern India, resulting in development of intense convective cells, and extreme heavy rain along the Himalayan foothills in central and northwestern India. The implications of these feedback processes on climate change in the South Asian monsoon region will be discussed.

  13. Links between tropical Pacific seasonal, interannual and orbital variability during the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emile-Geay, J.; Cobb, K. M.; Carré, M.; Braconnot, P.; Leloup, J.; Zhou, Y.; Harrison, S. P.; Corrège, T.; McGregor, H. V.; Collins, M.; Driscoll, R.; Elliot, M.; Schneider, B.; Tudhope, A.

    2016-02-01

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual climate variability. However, it is unclear how ENSO has responded to external forcing, particularly orbitally induced changes in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle during the Holocene. Here we present a reconstruction of seasonal and interannual surface conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean from a network of high-resolution coral and mollusc records that span discrete intervals of the Holocene. We identify several intervals of reduced variance in the 2 to 7 yr ENSO band that are not in phase with orbital changes in equatorial insolation, with a notable 64% reduction between 5,000 and 3,000 years ago. We compare the reconstructed ENSO variance and seasonal cycle with that simulated by nine climate models that include orbital forcing, and find that the models do not capture the timing or amplitude of ENSO variability, nor the mid-Holocene increase in seasonality seen in the observations; moreover, a simulated inverse relationship between the amplitude of the seasonal cycle and ENSO-related variance in sea surface temperatures is not found in our reconstructions. We conclude that the tropical Pacific climate is highly variable and subject to millennial scale quiescent periods. These periods harbour no simple link to orbital forcing, and are not adequately simulated by the current generation of models.

  14. Pronounced interannual variability in tropical South Pacific temperatures during Heinrich Stadial 1.

    PubMed

    Felis, Thomas; Merkel, Ute; Asami, Ryuji; Deschamps, Pierre; Hathorne, Ed C; Kölling, Martin; Bard, Edouard; Cabioch, Guy; Durand, Nicolas; Prange, Matthias; Schulz, Michael; Cahyarini, Sri Yudawati; Pfeiffer, Miriam

    2012-07-24

    The early last glacial termination was characterized by intense North Atlantic cooling and weak overturning circulation. This interval between ~18,000 and 14,600 years ago, known as Heinrich Stadial 1, was accompanied by a disruption of global climate and has been suggested as a key factor for the termination. However, the response of interannual climate variability in the tropical Pacific (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) to Heinrich Stadial 1 is poorly understood. Here we use Sr/Ca in a fossil Tahiti coral to reconstruct tropical South Pacific sea surface temperature around 15,000 years ago at monthly resolution. Unlike today, interannual South Pacific sea surface temperature variability at typical El Niño-Southern Oscillation periods was pronounced at Tahiti. Our results indicate that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation was active during Heinrich Stadial 1, consistent with climate model simulations of enhanced El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability at that time. Furthermore, a greater El Niño-Southern Oscillation influence in the South Pacific during Heinrich Stadial 1 is suggested, resulting from a southward expansion or shift of El Niño-Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature anomalies.

  15. Interannual Variability of the Tropical Water Cycle: Capabilities in the TRMM Era and Challenges for GPM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robertson, Franklin R.

    2003-01-01

    Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30" NE) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Although it is well documented that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with marked SST changes over the tropical oceans, produce significant regional changes in precipitation, water vapor, and radiative fluxes in the tropics, we still cannot yet adequately quantify the associated net integrated changes to water and heat balance over the entire tropical oceanic or land sectors. Robertson et al., [2001 GRL] for example, showed that substantial disagreement exists among contemporary satellite estimates of interannual variations in tropical rainfall that are associated with SST changes. Berg et al., [2002 J. Climate] have documented the distinct differences between precipitation structure over the eastern and western Pacific ITCZ and noted how various satellite precipitation algorithms may respond quite differently to ENSO modulations of these precipitation regimes. Resolving this uncertainty is important since precipitation and latent heat release variations over land and ocean sectors are key components of the tropical heat balance in its most aggregated form. Rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) averaged over the tropical oceans have not solved this issue and, in fact, show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. In this paper we will focus on findings that uncertainties in microphysical assumptions necessitated by the single-frequency PR measurement pose difficulties for detecting climate-related precipitation signals. Recent work has shown that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees

  16. Interannual Variability of the Tropical Water Cycle: Capabilities in the TRMM Era and Challenges for GPM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robertson, Franklin R.

    2003-01-01

    Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30" NE) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Although it is well documented that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with marked SST changes over the tropical oceans, produce significant regional changes in precipitation, water vapor, and radiative fluxes in the tropics, we still cannot yet adequately quantify the associated net integrated changes to water and heat balance over the entire tropical oceanic or land sectors. Robertson et al., [2001 GRL] for example, showed that substantial disagreement exists among contemporary satellite estimates of interannual variations in tropical rainfall that are associated with SST changes. Berg et al., [2002 J. Climate] have documented the distinct differences between precipitation structure over the eastern and western Pacific ITCZ and noted how various satellite precipitation algorithms may respond quite differently to ENSO modulations of these precipitation regimes. Resolving this uncertainty is important since precipitation and latent heat release variations over land and ocean sectors are key components of the tropical heat balance in its most aggregated form. Rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) averaged over the tropical oceans have not solved this issue and, in fact, show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. In this paper we will focus on findings that uncertainties in microphysical assumptions necessitated by the single-frequency PR measurement pose difficulties for detecting climate-related precipitation signals. Recent work has shown that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees

  17. Codominant water control on global interannual variability and trends in land surface phenology and greenness.

    PubMed

    Forkel, Matthias; Migliavacca, Mirco; Thonicke, Kirsten; Reichstein, Markus; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Weber, Ulrich; Carvalhais, Nuno

    2015-09-01

    Identifying the relative importance of climatic and other environmental controls on the interannual variability and trends in global land surface phenology and greenness is challenging. Firstly, quantifications of land surface phenology and greenness dynamics are impaired by differences between satellite data sets and phenology detection methods. Secondly, dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) that can be used to diagnose controls still reveal structural limitations and contrasting sensitivities to environmental drivers. Thus, we assessed the performance of a new developed phenology module within the LPJmL (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Lands) DGVM with a comprehensive ensemble of three satellite data sets of vegetation greenness and ten phenology detection methods, thereby thoroughly accounting for observational uncertainties. The improved and tested model allows us quantifying the relative importance of environmental controls on interannual variability and trends of land surface phenology and greenness at regional and global scales. We found that start of growing season interannual variability and trends are in addition to cold temperature mainly controlled by incoming radiation and water availability in temperate and boreal forests. Warming-induced prolongations of the growing season in high latitudes are dampened by a limited availability of light. For peak greenness, interannual variability and trends are dominantly controlled by water availability and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) in all regions. Stronger greening trends in boreal forests of Siberia than in North America are associated with a stronger increase in water availability from melting permafrost soils. Our findings emphasize that in addition to cold temperatures, water availability is a codominant control for start of growing season and peak greenness trends at the global scale.

  18. Interannual Variability in Global Soil Respiration on a 0.5 Degree Grid Cell Basis (1980-1994)

    SciTech Connect

    Raich, J.W.

    2003-09-15

    We used a climate-driven regression model to develop spatially resolved estimates of soil-CO{sub 2} emissions from the terrestrial land surface for each month from January 1980 to December 1994, to evaluate the effects of interannual variations in climate on global soil-to-atmosphere CO{sub 2} fluxes. The mean annual global soil-CO{sub 2} flux over this 15-y period was estimated to be 80.4 (range 79.3-81.8) Pg C. Monthly variations in global soil-CO{sub 2} emissions followed closely the mean temperature cycle of the Northern Hemisphere. Globally, soil-CO{sub 2} emissions reached their minima in February and peaked in July and August. Tropical and subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests contributed more soil-derived CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere than did any other vegetation type ({approx}30% of the total) and exhibited a biannual cycle in their emissions. Soil-CO{sub 2} emissions in other biomes exhibited a single annual cycle that paralleled the seasonal temperature cycle. Interannual variability in estimated global soil-CO{sub 2} production is substantially less than is variability in net carbon uptake by plants (i.e., net primary productivity). Thus, soils appear to buffer atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations against far more dramatic seasonal and interannual differences in plant growth. Within seasonally dry biomes (savannas, bushlands, and deserts), interannual variability in soil-CO{sub 2} emissions correlated significantly with interannual differences in precipitation. At the global scale, however, annual soil-CO{sub 2} fluxes correlated with mean annual temperature, with a slope of 3.3 PgCY{sup -1} per degree Celsius. Although the distribution of precipitation influences seasonal and spatial patterns of soil-CO{sub 2} emissions, global warming is likely to stimulate CO{sub 2} emissions from soils.

  19. Intraseasonal to interannual variability of summer monsoon rainfall and its influence on the Agricultural corps in mountainous Kashmir

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hussain, Z.; Saeed, S.

    2012-04-01

    By using high resolution APHRODITE precipitation and meteorological station data (1961-2007) the present study examines the intraseasonal to interannual variability of the monsoon rainfall over mountainous Kashmir and its influence on the agricultural crops such as Maiz and Wheat. It is found that an intraseasonal to interannual variability of the monsoon rainfall can severely affect the crop production in the hilly areas of Kashmir. We found an increasing trend in the extreme precipitation events over Kashmir and adjacent areas in the recent years. The associated crop production shows significant decreasing trend especially over the hilly areas in Kashmir. The enhanced rainfall can result in the soil erosion that impose a major threat to sustainable agriculture in the mountainous areas of Kashmir. The heavy rainfall associated with the orographic uplifitng removes the uppermost fertile layer of soil, depleting fertility and leaving the soil in poor physical condition. This further causes severe deficiency of most important nutrients required for plant growth and crop yield. We further analysed the IPCC AR4 ECHAM5/MPIOM climate model simulations to examine the future interannual variability of monsoon rainfall over Kashmir and adjoining areas. In the following we analysed the transient run with a 1% per year increase in CO2 until reaching double concentrations and held constant thereafter. We found enhanced interannual variability of the summer monsoon rainfall (July-August) with increasing drought like conditions over Kashmir and adjoining northern parts of Pakistan in future climate. The enhanced interannual variability of precipitation in future could further affect severely growth of various agricultural crops in mountainous parts of Kashmir.

  20. Projected Changes in Mean and Interannual Variability of Surface Water over Continental China

    SciTech Connect

    Leng, Guoyong; Tang, Qiuhong; Huang, Maoyi; Hong, Yang; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-05-09

    Five General Circulation Model (GCM) climate projections under the RCP8.5 emission scenario were used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to investigate the impacts of climate change on hydrologic cycle over continental China in the 21st century. The bias-corrected climatic variables were generated for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). Results showed much larger fractional changes of annual mean Evaportranspiration (ET) per unit warming than the corresponding fractional changes of Precipitation (P) per unit warming across the country especially for South China, which led to notable decrease of surface water variability (P-E). Specifically, negative trends for annual mean runoff up to -0.33%/decade and soil moisture trends varying between -0.02 to -0.13%/decade were found for most river basins across China. Coincidentally, interannual variability for both runoff and soil moisture exhibited significant positive trends for almost all river basins across China, implying an increase in extremes relative to the mean conditions. Noticeably, the largest positive trends for runoff variability and soil moisture variability, which were up to 38 0.41%/decade and 0.90%/decade, both occurred in Southwest China. In addition to the regional contrast, intra-seasonal variation was also large for the runoff mean and runoff variability changes, but small for the soil moisture mean and variability changes. Our results suggest that future climate change could further exacerbate existing water-related risks (e.g. floods and droughts) across China as indicated by the marked decrease of surface water amounts combined with steady increase of interannual variability throughout the 21st century. This study highlights the regional contrast and intra-seasonal variations for the projected hydrologic changes and could provide muti

  1. The NMME Intra-Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction Experiment (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirtman, B. P.

    2013-12-01

    The recent US National Academies report 'Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability' was unequivocal in recommending the need for the development of a North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) operational predictive capability. Indeed, this effort is required to meet the specific tailored regional prediction and decision support needs of a large community of climate information users. The multi-model ensemble approach has proven extremely effective at quantifying prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in model formulation, and has proven to produce better prediction quality (on average) then any single model ensemble. Given the pragmatic utility of the multi-model approach, there is multi-agency (NOAA, NSF, NASA, and DOE) support for a North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) Intra- seasonal to Seasonal to Inter-annual (ISI) prediction experiment. This experiment leverages an NMME team that has already formed and began producing routine real-time multi-model ensemble ISI predictions since August 2011. The forecasts are provided to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on an experimental basis for evaluation and consolidation as a multi-model ensemble ISI prediction system. The experimental prediction system developed by this NMME team is as an 'NMME of opportunity' in that the seasonal-to-interannual prediction systems are readily available and each team member has independently developed the initialization and prediction protocol. We will refer to the NMME of opportunity as phase 1 NMME (or NMME-1). The NMME-1 focuses on season-to-interannual time-scales in that the data that is exchanged is monthly. Here we show some results from 28 years of hindcasts that cover a common period (i.e., 1982-2009) for all the models, and the real-time experimental forecast from the NMME of opportunity (i.e., NMME-1). The results help provide evidence of the benefit of a multi-model ensemble of predictions, as compared with the ensemble

  2. Interannual-decadal variability of wintertime mixed layer depths in the North Pacific detected by an ensemble of ocean syntheses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toyoda, Takahiro; Fujii, Yosuke; Kuragano, Tsurane; Kosugi, Naohiro; Sasano, Daisuke; Kamachi, Masafumi; Ishikawa, Yoichi; Masuda, Shuhei; Sato, Kanako; Awaji, Toshiyuki; Hernandez, Fabrice; Ferry, Nicolas; Guinehut, Stéphanie; Martin, Matthew; Andrew Peterson, K.; Good, Simon A.; Valdivieso, Maria; Haines, Keith; Storto, Andrea; Masina, Simona; Köhl, Armin; Yin, Yonghong; Shi, Li; Alves, Oscar; Smith, Gregory; Chang, You-Soon; Vernieres, Guillaume; Wang, Xiaochun; Forget, Gael; Heimbach, Patrick; Wang, Ou; Fukumori, Ichiro; Lee, Tong; Zuo, Hao; Balmaseda, Magdalena

    2017-08-01

    The interannual-decadal variability of the wintertime mixed layer depths (MLDs) over the North Pacific is investigated from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of an ensemble of global ocean reanalyses. The first leading EOF mode represents the interannual MLD anomalies centered in the eastern part of the central mode water formation region in phase opposition with those in the eastern subtropics and the central Alaskan Gyre. This first EOF mode is highly correlated with the Pacific decadal oscillation index on both the interannual and decadal time scales. The second leading EOF mode represents the MLD variability in the subtropical mode water (STMW) formation region and has a good correlation with the wintertime West Pacific (WP) index with time lag of 3 years, suggesting the importance of the oceanic dynamical response to the change in the surface wind field associated with the meridional shifts of the Aleutian Low. The above MLD variabilities are in basic agreement with previous observational and modeling findings. Moreover the reanalysis ensemble provides uncertainty estimates. The interannual MLD anomalies in the first and second EOF modes are consistently represented by the individual reanalyses and the amplitudes of the variabilities generally exceed the ensemble spread of the reanalyses. Besides, the resulting MLD variability indices, spanning the 1948-2012 period, should be helpful for characterizing the North Pacific climate variability. In particular, a 6-year oscillation including the WP teleconnection pattern in the atmosphere and the oceanic MLD variability in the STMW formation region is first detected.

  3. Interannual variation of global atmospheric angular momentum

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Tsing-Chang; Yen, Ming-Cheng; Tribbia, J.J.

    1996-10-01

    The relative atmospheric angular momentum (RAM) integrated over the globe is an explicit variable representing the state of the atmospheric general circulation. After removing the annual, semiannual, and higher-frequency components, the filtered global RAM time series for the past 14 years (1979-92) is highly correlated with both the Southern Oscillation index and the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature averaged over Area NINO-3 (5{degrees}S-5{degrees}N, 150{degrees}W-90{degrees}W). The interannual variation of global RAM is coherent with the poleward propagation of RAM anomalies. The global RAM anomalies reach their minimum values when westerly anomalies emerge in the Tropics and higher latitudes during a cold El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. On the other hand, global RAM anomalies attain their maximum values when westerly anomalies arrive at the subtropics of both hemispheres during a warm ENSO event. It is demonstrated that the poleward propagation of RAM anomalies results from the flip-flop oscillation of the anomalous circulation between cold and warm ENSO events. 11 refs., 3 figs.

  4. Interannual Variability in Amundsen Sea Ice-Shelf Height Change Linked to ENSO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paolo, F. S.; Fricker, H. A.; Padman, L.

    2015-12-01

    Atmospheric and sea-ice conditions around Antarctica, particularly in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas, respond to climate dynamics in the tropical Pacific Ocean on interannual time scales including the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It has been hypothesized that the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, including its floating ice shelves, also responds to this climate signal; however, this has not yet been unambiguously demonstrated. We apply multivariate singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) to our 18-year (1994-2012) time series of ice-shelf height in the Amundsen Sea (AS) region. This advanced spectral method distinguishes between regular deterministic behavior ("cycles") at sub-decadal time scale and irregular behavior ("noise") at shorter time scales. Although the long-term trends of AS ice-shelf height changes are much larger than the range of interannual variability, the short-term rate of change dh/dt can vary about the trend by more than 50%. The mode of interannual variability in the AS ice-shelf height is strongly correlated with the low-frequency mode of ENSO (periodicity of ~4.5 years) as represented by the Southern Oscillation Index. The ice-shelf height in the AS is expected to respond to changes in precipitation and inflows of warm subsurface Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) into the ocean cavities under the ice shelves, altering basal melt rates. Since both of these processes affecting ice-shelf mass balance respond to changes in wind fields for different ENSO states, we expect some correlation between them. We will describe the spatial structure of AS ice-shelf height response to ENSO, and attempt to distinguish the precipitation signal from basal mass balance due to changing CDW inflows.

  5. Interannual variation and long-term trends in proportions of resident individuals in partially migratory birds.

    PubMed

    Meller, Kalle; Vähätalo, Anssi V; Hokkanen, Tatu; Rintala, Jukka; Piha, Markus; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

    2016-03-01

    Partial migration - a part of a population migrates and another part stays resident year-round on the breeding site - is probably the most common type of migration in the animal kingdom, yet it has only lately garnered more attention. Theoretical studies indicate that in partially migratory populations, the proportion of resident individuals (PoR) should increase in high latitudes in response to the warming climate, but empirical evidence exists for few species. We provide the first comprehensive overview of the environmental factors affecting PoR and the long-term trends in PoR by studying 27 common partially migratory bird species in Finland. The annual PoR values were calculated by dividing the winter bird abundance by the preceding breeding abundance. First, we analysed whether early-winter temperature, winter temperature year before or the abundance of tree seeds just before overwintering explains the interannual variation in PoR. Secondly, we analysed the trends in PoR between 1987 and 2011. Early-winter temperature explained the interannual variation in PoR in the waterbirds (waterfowl and gulls), most likely because the temperature affects the ice conditions and thereby the feeding opportunities for the waterbirds. In terrestrial species, the abundance of seeds was the best explanatory variable. Previous winter's temperature did not explain PoR in any species, and thus, we conclude that the variation in food availability caused the interannual variation in PoR. During the study period, PoR increased in waterbirds, but did not change in terrestrial birds. Partially migratory species living in physically contrasting habitats can differ in their annual and long-term population-level behavioural responses to warming climate, possibly because warm winter temperatures reduce ice cover and improve the feeding possibilities of waterbirds but do not directly regulate the food availability for terrestrial birds.

  6. Interannual variability of Black Sea's hydrodynamics and connection to atmospheric patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capet, Arthur; Barth, Alexander; Beckers, Jean-Marie; Marilaure, Grégoire

    2012-11-01

    The long term variability (1962-2000) of the Black Sea physical processes (e.g. temperature, main circulation, cold intermediate layer, sea level) and its relation to atmospheric conditions and large scale climate patterns are investigated using an eddy-resolving tridimensional model in combination with statistical tools (e.g. Empirical Orthogonal Functions, Self Organizing Maps). First, the ability of the model to represent the interannual dynamics of the system is assessed by comparing the modeled and satellite sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level anomaly (SLA) decomposed into their dominant Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). The correlation between the spatial and temporal EOFs modes derived from model and satellite data is usually satisfactory and this gives some confidence in using the model as a tool to investigate not only the SST and SLA dynamics but also the dynamics of connected variables. Then, the long term variability (1962-2000) of the Black Sea hydrodynamics is assessed by decomposing into their dominant EOFs modeled SST, SLA and selected key hydrodynamical variables associated to the main circulation and vertical structure of the water column. Significant correlations between the EOFs associated to these variables are investigated in order to link the variability of surface fields and the internal dynamics of the system. In particular, the intensity of the general cyclonic circulation (the Rim Current) is shown to impact strongly (1) the mean sea level, (2) the SST response to air temperature (AT), (3) the formation of the cold intermediate layer, (4) the meridional repartition of the SST anomaly and (5) the exchanges of heat between the north-western shelf and the open basin. In order to appraise the variability of atmospheric conditions over the Black Sea during 1962-2000 and their role in driving the hydrodynamics, a self-organizing maps technique is used to identify spatial recurrent patterns of atmospheric fields (i.e., AT, wind

  7. Stochastic modeling of interannual variation of hydrologic variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dralle, David; Karst, Nathaniel; Müller, Marc; Vico, Giulia; Thompson, Sally E.

    2017-07-01

    Quantifying the interannual variability of hydrologic variables (such as annual flow volumes, and solute or sediment loads) is a central challenge in hydrologic modeling. Annual or seasonal hydrologic variables are themselves the integral of instantaneous variations and can be well approximated as an aggregate sum of the daily variable. Process-based, probabilistic techniques are available to describe the stochastic structure of daily flow, yet estimating interannual variations in the corresponding aggregated variable requires consideration of the autocorrelation structure of the flow time series. Here we present a method based on a probabilistic streamflow description to obtain the interannual variability of flow-derived variables. The results provide insight into the mechanistic genesis of interannual variability of hydrologic processes. Such clarification can assist in the characterization of ecosystem risk and uncertainty in water resources management. We demonstrate two applications, one quantifying seasonal flow variability and the other quantifying net suspended sediment export.

  8. Interannual variability in aboveground tree growth in Stehekin River watershed, North Cascade Range, Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hessl, Amy E.; Peterson, D.L.

    2004-01-01

    Many forests in the Pacific Northwest region of North America are both highly productive and sensitive to climate. The combination of productivity and sensitivity makes forests vulnerable to changes in future climate and most likely to feed back to the regional carbon cycle. We reconstructed basal area increment (BAI) for 20 yr using tree-ring increments and diameter to identify species-specific responses of 14 forested vegetation types in the Stehekin River watershed in the North Cascade Range, to interannual climatic variability. Mean basal area increment (MBAI) for the 20-yr period is low when the standard error is low, but as MBAI increases, the standard error (SE) is more variable. Growth at sites with both low SE and MBAI may be related to climatic variables, however, some forest types dominated by Douglas-fir and mountain hemlock are both productive and responsive to climatic variability. Many forests in the Pacific Northwest are dominated by Douglas-fir, a commercially important timber species, and as a result, may play a major role in the regional carbon balance. Douglas-fir and mountain hemlock forests in the eastern portion of the North Cascades should be carefully monitored and managed in the context of both changing climatic conditions and regional carbon budgets.

  9. Sea Surface Salinity signature of tropical Atlantic interannual modes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Awo, Mesmin; Alory, Gael; Da-Allada, Casimir; Jouanno, Julien; Delcroix, Thierry; Baloitcha, Ezinvi

    2017-04-01

    Interannual climate variability in the tropical Atlantic is dominated by two internal modes: an equatorial and a meridional mode. The equatorial mode is partly responsible for sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies observed in boreal summer in the Gulf of Guinea. The meridional mode peaks in boreal spring as an inter-hemispheric SST fluctuation. Previous studies show that these modes affect the migration of the inter tropical convergence zone which drives regional precipitation. In this study, we extracted the Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) signature of these modes from in situ data. The results indicate strong SSS anomalies in the equatorial, north west and south east tropical Atlantic related to the equatorial mode. Moreover, the results also indicate the existence of a meridional SSS dipole in the equatorial region, strong SSS anomalies in north and south tropical Atlantic and in runoff regions, related to the meridional mode. Using a mixed-layer salt budget in a realistic model, we investigated the oceanic and/or atmospheric processes responsible for this signature: For the equatorial mode, both fresh water flux and horizontal advection explain the observed signature in the north equatorial region, but in the south equatorial region, the signature is explained by the combined contribution of total (horizontal and vertical) advection and vertical diffusion. For the meridional mode, changes in fresh water flux explain the observed equatorial dipole while the signature in runoff regions is explained by the total advection. In the north west and south east tropical Atlantic, only horizontal advection is important for explaining the signature of these two modes.

  10. Impacts of wildfires on interannual trends in land surface phenology: an investigation of the Hayman Fire

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jianmin; Zhang, Xiaoyang

    2017-05-01

    Land surface phenology (LSP) derived from satellite data has been widely associated with recent global climate change. However, LSP is frequently influenced by land disturbances, which significantly limits our understanding of the phenological trends driven by climate change. Because wildfire is one of the most significant disturbance agents, we investigated the influences of wildfire on the start of growing season (SOS) and the interannual trends of SOS in the Hayman Fire area that occurred in 2002 in Colorado using time series of daily MODIS data (2001-2014). Results show that the Hayman Fire advanced the area-integrated SOS by 15.2 d and converted SOS from a delaying trend of 3.9 d/decade to an advancing trend of -1.9 d/decade during 2001-2014. The fire impacts on SOS increased from low burn severity to high burn severity. Moreover, the rate of increase of annual maximum and minimum EVI2 from 2003-2014 reflects that vegetation greenness could recover to pre-fire status in 2022 and 2053, respectively, which suggests that the fire impacts on the satellite-derived SOS variability and the interannual trends should continue in the next few decades.

  11. Modeling interannual variability of seasonal evaporation and storage change based on the extended Budyko framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Xi; Alimohammadi, Negin; Wang, Dingbao

    2013-09-01

    Long-term climate is the first-order control on mean annual water balance, and vegetation and the interactions between climate seasonality and soil water storage change have also been found to play important roles. The purpose of this paper is to extend the Budyko hypothesis to the seasonal scale and to develop a model for interannual variability of seasonal evaporation and storage change. A seasonal aridity index is defined as the ratio of potential evaporation to effective precipitation, where effective precipitation is the difference between rainfall and storage change. Correspondingly, evaporation ratio is defined as the ratio of evaporation to effective precipitation. A modified Turc-Pike equation with a horizontal shift is proposed to model interannual variability of seasonal evaporation ratio as a function of seasonal aridity index, which includes rainfall seasonality and soil water change. The performance of the seasonal water balance model is evaluated for 277 watersheds in the United States. The 99% of wet seasons and 90% of dry seasons have Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients larger than 0.5. The developed seasonal model can be applied for constructing long-term evaporation and storage change data when rainfall, potential evaporation, and runoff observations are available. On the other hand, vegetation affects seasonal water balance by controlling both evaporation and soil moisture dynamics. The correlation between NDVI and evaporation is strong particularly in wet seasons. However, the correlation between NDVI and the seasonal model parameters is only strong in dry seasons.

  12. Interannual variability of Indian Ocean subtropical mode water subduction rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Jie; Lan, Jian

    2016-08-01

    The interannual variation of Indian Ocean subtropical mode water (IOSTMW) subduction rate in the Southwest Indian Ocean from 1980 to 2007 is investigated in this paper based on Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) outputs. Climatology of subduction rate exceeds 75 m/year in the IOSTMW formation area. The renewal time of permanent pycnocline water mass based on the subduction rate is calculated for each density class: 3-6 years for IOSTMW (25.8 < σ θ < 26.2 kg m-3). Subduction rate in the Southwest Indian Ocean subtropical gyre exhibits a great year-to-year variability. This interannual variations of the IOSTMW subduction rate is primarily dominated by the lateral induction term, associated with the interannual variations of strong meridional gradient of winter mixed layer depth (MLD). The slope of the mixed layer depth in the mode water is closely linked to the large variations of deep late winter MLD in the mid-latitudes and negligible variations of shallow winter MLD in lower latitudes. It is further identified that the interannual variation of late winter MLD in this area is largely controlled by the latent and sensible heat flux components. The water volume of the permanent pycnocline in the IOSTMW distribution area is also found to show a significant interannual variability, and it is well correlated with the interannual variation of subduction rate.

  13. Interannual variability of Indian Ocean subtropical mode water subduction rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Jie; Lan, Jian

    2017-06-01

    The interannual variation of Indian Ocean subtropical mode water (IOSTMW) subduction rate in the Southwest Indian Ocean from 1980 to 2007 is investigated in this paper based on Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) outputs. Climatology of subduction rate exceeds 75 m/year in the IOSTMW formation area. The renewal time of permanent pycnocline water mass based on the subduction rate is calculated for each density class: 3-6 years for IOSTMW (25.8 < σ θ < 26.2 kg m-3). Subduction rate in the Southwest Indian Ocean subtropical gyre exhibits a great year-to-year variability. This interannual variations of the IOSTMW subduction rate is primarily dominated by the lateral induction term, associated with the interannual variations of strong meridional gradient of winter mixed layer depth (MLD). The slope of the mixed layer depth in the mode water is closely linked to the large variations of deep late winter MLD in the mid-latitudes and negligible variations of shallow winter MLD in lower latitudes. It is further identified that the interannual variation of late winter MLD in this area is largely controlled by the latent and sensible heat flux components. The water volume of the permanent pycnocline in the IOSTMW distribution area is also found to show a significant interannual variability, and it is well correlated with the interannual variation of subduction rate.

  14. Interannual variations and trends in global land surface phenology derived from enhanced vegetation index during 1982-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xiaoyang; Tan, Bin; Yu, Yunyue

    2014-05-01

    Land surface phenology is widely retrieved from satellite observations at regional and global scales, and its long-term record has been demonstrated to be a valuable tool for reconstructing past climate variations, monitoring the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems in response to climate impacts, and predicting biological responses to future climate scenarios. This study detected global land surface phenology from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 1982 to 2010. Based on daily enhanced vegetation index at a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees, we simulated the seasonal vegetative trajectory for each individual pixel using piecewise logistic models, which was then used to detect the onset of greenness increase (OGI) and the length of vegetation growing season (GSL). Further, both overall interannual variations and pixel-based trends were examined across Koeppen's climate regions for the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010, respectively. The results show that OGI and GSL varied considerably during 1982-2010 across the globe. Generally, the interannual variation could be more than a month in precipitation-controlled tropical and dry climates while it was mainly less than 15 days in temperature-controlled temperate, cold, and polar climates. OGI, overall, shifted early, and GSL was prolonged from 1982 to 2010 in most climate regions in North America and Asia while the consistently significant trends only occurred in cold climate and polar climate in North America. The overall trends in Europe were generally insignificant. Over South America, late OGI was consistent (particularly from 1982 to 1999) while either positive or negative GSL trends in a climate region were mostly reversed between the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010. In the Northern Hemisphere of Africa, OGI trends were mostly insignificant, but prolonged GSL was evident over individual climate regions during the last 3

  15. Interannual variability of global terrestrial primary production: Results of a model driven with satellite observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goetz, Scott J.; Prince, Stephen D.; Small, Jennifer; Gleason, Arthur C. R.

    2000-08-01

    Interannual variation in terrestrial net primary production (NPP) was modeled using the global production efficiency model (GLO-PEM), a semimechanistic plant photosynthesis and respiration model driven entirely with satellite advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) observations. The model also estimated a wide range of biophysical variables at 10-day intervals for the period 1982-1989, including air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, soil moisture, biomass, autotrophic respiration, canopy-absorbed photosynthetically active radiation, gross primary production, and light use efficiency. The accuracy of the simulated variables has previously been shown to be within 10-30% of field measurements, depending on the specific variable. We analyze here interannual changes in NPP, which showed large spatial variability (0-1500 gC m-2 yr-1) and trends that differed regionally over the 8-year period. Annually integrated global NPP was found to vary as much as 12% between years and was very sensitive to air temperature. The coefficient of variation in NPP of sparsely vegetated areas (mostly semiarid) on an interannual basis was as much as 80%, whereas densely vegetated areas (broadleaf evergreen and seasonally deciduous forests) varied comparatively little (0-10%). Mean annual NPP of the latter decreased 36 gC m-2 yr-1 over the time series examined. There was extreme seasonal and moderate interannual variation (10-60%) in NPP of middle- to high-latitude regions (temperate and boreal forests) with evidence for a slight trend toward increased values through time (+3 to 12 gC m-2 yr-1). The results indicate significant interannual and regional differences in responses to climate variability, with boreal regions increasing 39 gC m-2 yr-1 compared to a decrease of 116 gC m-2 yr-1 in tropical regions for each 1°C rise in air temperature. We explore a few of the possible reasons for these observations and discuss some of the issues and limitations to the use of the current

  16. How accurately do we know interannual variations of surface mass balance and firn volume in Antarctica?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horwath, Martin; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Ligtenberg, Stefan R. M.; Legrésy, Benoît; Blarel, Fabien

    2013-04-01

    Knowing the interannual variations in the Antarctic ice sheet net snow accumulation, or surface mass balance (SMB), is essential for analyzing and interpreting present-day observations. For example, accumulation events like the one in East Antarctica in 2009 (Shepherd et al. 2012, Science, doi: 10.1126/science.1228102) challenge our ability to interpret observed decadal-scale trends in terms of long-term changes versus natural fluctuations. SMB variations cause changes in the firn density structure, which need to be accounted for when converting volume trends from satellite altimetry into mass trends. Recent assessments of SMB and firn volume variations mainly rely on atmospheric modeling and firn densification modeling (FDM). The modeling results need observational validation, which has been limited by now. Geodetic observations by satellite altimetry and satellite gravimetry reflect interannual firn volume and mass changes, among other signals like changes in ice flow dynamics. Therefore, these observations provide a means of validating modeling results over the observational period. We present comprehensive comparisons between interannual volume variations from ENVISAT radar altimetry (RA) and firn densification modeling (FDM), and between interannual mass variations from SMB modeling by the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2 and GRACE satellite gravimetry. The comparisons are performed based on time series with approximately monthly sampling and with the overlapping period from 2002 to 2010. The RA-FDM comparison spans the spatial scales from 27 km to the continental scale. The mass comparison refers to the regional (drainage basin) and continental scale. Overall, we find good agreement between the interannual variations described by the models and by the geodetic observations. This agreement proves our ability to track and understand SMB-related ice sheet variations from year to year. The assessment of differences between modeling and observations

  17. Climatic versus biotic constraints on carbon and water fluxes in seasonally drought-affected ponderosa pine ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwarz, P. A.; Law, B. E.; Williams, M.; Irvine, J.; Kurpius, M.; Moore, D.

    2004-12-01

    We investigated the relative importance of climatic versus biotic controls on gross primary production (GPP) and water vapor fluxes in seasonally drought-affected ponderosa pine forests. The study was conducted in young (YS), mature (MS), and old stands (OS) over 4 years at the AmeriFlux Metolius sites. Model simulations showed that interannual variation of GPP did not follow the same trends as precipitation, and effects of climatic variation were smallest at the OS (<10%), largest at the MS (>50%), and intermediate at the YS (<20%). In the young, developing stand, interannual variation in leaf area has larger effects on fluxes than climate, although leaf area is a function of climate in that climate can interact with age-related shifts in carbon allocation and affect whole-tree hydraulic conductance. Older forests, with well-established root systems, appear to be better buffered from effects of seasonal drought and interannual climatic variation. Interannual variation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) was also lowest at the OS, where NEE is controlled more by interannual variation of ecosystem respiration, 70% of which is from soil, than by the variation of GPP, whereas variation in GPP is the primary reason for interannual changes in NEE at the YS and MS. Across spatially heterogeneous landscapes with high frequency of younger stands resulting from natural and anthropogenic disturbances, interannual climatic variation and change in leaf area are likely to result in large interannual variation in GPP and NEE.

  18. Climatic Versus Biotic Constraints on Carbon and Water Fluxes in Seasonally Drought-affected Ponderosa Pine Ecosystems. Chapter 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schwarz, P. A.; Law, B. E.; Williams, M.; Irvine, J.; Kurpius, M.; Moore, D.

    2005-01-01

    We investigated the relative importance of climatic versus biotic controls on gross primary production (GPP) and water vapor fluxes in seasonally drought-affected ponderosa pine forests. The study was conducted in young (YS), mature (MS), and old stands (OS) over 4 years at the AmeriFlux Metolius sites. Model simulations showed that interannual variation of GPP did not follow the same trends as precipitation, and effects of climatic variation were smallest at the OS (50%), and intermediate at the YS (<20%). In the young, developing stand, interannual variation in leaf area has larger effects on fluxes than climate, although leaf area is a function of climate in that climate can interact with age-related shifts in carbon allocation and affect whole-tree hydraulic conductance. Older forests, with well-established root systems, appear to be better buffered from effects of seasonal drought and interannual climatic variation. Interannual variation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) was also lowest at the OS, where NEE is controlled more by interannual variation of ecosystem respiration, 70% of which is from soil, than by the variation of GPP, whereas variation in GPP is the primary reason for interannual changes in NEE at the YS and MS. Across spatially heterogeneous landscapes with high frequency of younger stands resulting from natural and anthropogenic disturbances, interannual climatic variation and change in leaf area are likely to result in large interannual variation in GPP and NEE.

  19. Interannual and interdecadal variability in 335 years of central England temperatures

    SciTech Connect

    Plaut, G.; Ghil, M.; Vautard, R.

    1995-05-05

    Understanding the natural variability of climate is important for predicting its near-term evolution. Models of the oceans` thermohaline and wind-driven circulation show low-frequency oscillations. Long instrumental records can help validate the oscillatory behavior of these models. Singular spectrum analysis applied to the 335-year-long central England temperature (CET) record has identified climate oscillations with interannual (7- to 8-year) and interdecadal (15- and 25-year) periods, probably related to the North Atlantic`s wind-driven and thermohaline circulation, respectively. Statistical prediction of oscillatory variability shows CETs decreasing toward the end of this decade and rising again into the middle of the next. 42 refs., 4 figs.

  20. Regional climate services: A regional partnership between NOAA and USDA

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Climate services in the Midwest and Northern Plains regions have been enhanced by a recent addition of the USDA Climate Hubs to NOAA’s existing network of partners. This new partnership stems from the intrinsic variability of intra and inter-annual climatic conditions, which makes decision-making fo...

  1. Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability and Land Surface Processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koster, Randal

    2004-01-01

    Atmospheric chaos severely limits the predictability of precipitation on subseasonal to interannual timescales. Hope for accurate long-term precipitation forecasts lies with simulating atmospheric response to components of the Earth system, such as the ocean, that can be predicted beyond a couple of weeks. Indeed, seasonal forecasts centers now rely heavily on forecasts of ocean circulation. Soil moisture, another slow component of the Earth system, is relatively ignored by the operational seasonal forecasting community. It is starting, however, to garner more attention. Soil moisture anomalies can persist for months. Because these anomalies can have a strong impact on evaporation and other surface energy fluxes, and because the atmosphere may respond consistently to anomalies in the surface fluxes, an accurate soil moisture initialization in a forecast system has the potential to provide additional forecast skill. This potential has motivated a number of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) studies of soil moisture and its contribution to variability in the climate system. Some of these studies even suggest that in continental midlatitudes during summer, oceanic impacts on precipitation are quite small relative to soil moisture impacts. The model results, though, are strongly model-dependent, with some models showing large impacts and others showing almost none at all. A validation of the model results with observations thus naturally suggests itself, but this is exceedingly difficult. The necessary contemporaneous soil moisture, evaporation, and precipitation measurements at the large scale are virtually non-existent, and even if they did exist, showing statistically that soil moisture affects rainfall would be difficult because the other direction of causality - wherein rainfall affects soil moisture - is unquestionably active and is almost certainly dominant. Nevertheless, joint analyses of observations and AGCM results do reveal some suggestions of

  2. The seasonal cycle revisited: interannual variation and ecosystem consequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertram, Douglas F.; Mackas, David L.; McKinnell, Stewart M.

    The annual seasonal cycle accounts for much of the total temporal variability of mid- and high-latitude marine ecosystems. Although the general pattern of the seasons repeats each year, climatic variability of the atmosphere and the ocean produce detectable changes in intensity and onset timing. We use a combination of time series data from oceanographic, zooplankton and seabird breeding data to ask if and how these variations in the timing of the spring growing season affect marine populations. For the physical environment, we develop an annual index of spring timing by fitting a non-linear 2-parameter periodic function to the average weekly SST data observed in British Columbia from 1 January to the end of August each year. For each year, the phase parameter describes the timing of seasonal warming (the timing index) and the amplitude parameter describes the magnitude of the temperature increase between the fitted winter minimum and summer maximum. For the zooplankton, which have annual and strongly synchronous cycles of biomass, productivity, and developmental sequence, we use copepodite stage composition to index the timing of the annual maximum. For seabirds, we examine (1975-1999) the timing of hatching, nestling growth performance, and diet for four species of alcids at Triangle Island, British Columbia's largest seabird colony and the world's largest population of the planktivorous Cassin's auklet. Temperature, zooplankton, and seabirds have all shown recent decadal trends toward ‘earlier spring’, but the magnitudes of the timing perturbations have differed from variable to variable and from year to year. Recent (1996-1999) extreme interannual variation in spring timing and April SST helped to facilitate a mechanistic investigation of oceanographic features that affect the reproductive performance of seabirds. Our results demonstrate a significant negative relationship between the annual spring timing index (and April mean SST) and nestling growth rates

  3. Streamflow forecasts on seasonal and interannual time scales for reservoir management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robertson, A. W.; Lu, M.; Lall, U.

    2014-12-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts are beginning to be complemented by improved forecasting capabilities at both sub-seasonal and interannual annual timescales, with the future prospect of seamless climate forecasts for water system operations. While seasonal predictability is often very limited by physical and modeling constraints, harnessing additional predictable components of the climate system may in some cases substantially increase their usable information content, and provide more flexible forecasts in terms of the kinds of management decisions that can be informed. Here we present an example of combining season and year-ahead streamflow forecasts as input to a multi-use reservoir optimization model, applied to the Bhakra Dam in NW India. Bi-timescale forecasts are made with a seasonal periodic autoregressive (PAR) model with exogenous climate-forecast inputs, together with an annual PAR model fit to observed flows used as a baseline for year-ahead forecasts. Annual net revenue from irrigation and hydropower supplies are calculated with contracts optimized using the reservoir optimization model. With Bhakra Dam inflows deriving from both winter storms/snow melt and the summer monsoon, it is found that net annual revenue is maximized when new contracts are initiated in March and June. We explore various choices of PARX model seasonal predictors based on climate model output and data and show that, with the choice of a good start date, even forecasts with relatively low skill can have value.

  4. Nonlinear interactions between the Amazon River basin and the Tropical North Atlantic at interannual timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Builes-Jaramillo, Alejandro; Marwan, Norbert; Poveda, Germán; Kurths, Jürgen

    2017-07-01

    We study the physical processes involved in the potential influence of Amazon (AM) hydroclimatology over the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) at interannual timescales, by analyzing time series of the precipitation index (P-E) over AM, as well as the surface atmospheric pressure gradient between both regions, and TNA SSTs. We use a recurrence joint probability based analysis that accounts for the lagged nonlinear dependency between time series, which also allows quantifying the statistical significance, based on a twin surrogates technique of the recurrence analysis. By means of such nonlinear dependence analysis we find that at interannual timescales AM hydrology influences future states of the TNA SSTs from 0 to 2 months later with a 90-95% statistical confidence. It also unveils the existence of two-way feedback mechanisms between the variables involved in the processes: (1) precipitation over AM leads the atmospheric pressure gradient between TNA and AM from 0 to 2 month lags, (2) the pressure gradient leads the trade zonal winds over the TNA from 0 to 3 months and from 7 to 12 months, (3) the zonal winds lead the SSTs from 0 to 3 months, and (4) the SSTs lead precipitation over AM by 1 month lag. The analyses were made for time series spanning from 1979 to 2008, and for extreme precipitation events in the AM during the years 1999, 2005, 2009 and 2010. We also evaluated the monthly mean conditions of the relevant variables during the extreme AM droughts of 1963, 1980, 1983, 1997, 1998, 2005, and 2010, and also during the floods of 1989, 1999, and 2009. Our results confirm that the Amazon River basin acts as a land surface-atmosphere bridge that links the Tropical Pacific and TNA SSTs at interannual timescales. The identified mutual interactions between TNA and AM are of paramount importance for a deeper understanding of AM hydroclimatology but also of a suite of oceanic and atmospheric phenomena over the TNA, including recently

  5. Natural and management influences on freshwater inflows and salinity in the San Francisco Estuary at monthly to interannual scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knowles, Noah

    2002-01-01

    Understanding the processes controlling the physics, chemistry, and biology of the San Francisco Estuary and their relation to climate variability is complicated by the combined influence on freshwater inflows of natural variability and upstream management. To distinguish these influences, alterations of estuarine inflow due to major reservoirs and freshwater pumping in the watershed were inferred from available data. Effects on salinity were estimated by using reconstructed estuarine inflows corresponding to differing levels of impairment to drive a numerical salinity model. Both natural and management inflow and salinity signals show strong interannual variability. Management effects raise salinities during the wet season, with maximum influence in spring. While year-to-year variations in all signals are very large, natural interannual variability can greatly exceed the range of management effects on salinity in the estuary.

  6. Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 13; Interannual Variability and Potential Predictability in Reanalysis Products

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Min, Wei; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Suarez, Max J. (Editor)

    1997-01-01

    The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at Goddard Space Flight Center and the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) have produced multi-year global assimilations of historical data employing fixed analysis systems. These "reanalysis" products are ideally suited for studying short-term climatic variations. The availability of multiple reanalysis products also provides the opportunity to examine the uncertainty in the reanalysis data. The purpose of this document is to provide an updated estimate of seasonal and interannual variability based on the DAO and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for the 15-year period 1980-1995. Intercomparisons of the seasonal means and their interannual variations are presented for a variety of prognostic and diagnostic fields. In addition, atmospheric potential predictability is re-examined employing selected DAO reanalysis variables.

  7. Inter-annual variability in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions due to temperature anomalies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bréon, F.-M.; Boucher, O.; Brender, P.

    2017-07-01

    It is well known that short-term (i.e. interannual) variations in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are closely related to the evolution of the national economies. Nevertheless, a fraction of the CO2 emissions are linked to domestic and business heating and cooling, which can be expected to be related to the meteorology, independently of the economy. Here, we analyse whether the signature of the inter-annual temperature anomalies is discernible in the time series of CO2 emissions at the country scale. Our analysis shows that, for many countries, there is a clear positive correlation between a heating-degree-person index and the component of the CO2 emissions that is not explained by the economy as quantified by the gross domestic product (GDP). Similarly, several countries show a positive correlation between a cooling-degree-person (CDP) index and CO2 emissions. The slope of the linear relationship for heating is on the order of 0.5-1 kg CO2 (degree-day-person)-1 but with significant country-to-country variations. A similar relationship for cooling shows even greater diversity. We further show that the inter-annual climate anomalies have a small but significant impact on the annual growth rate of CO2 emissions, both at the national and global scale. Such a meteorological effect was a significant contribution to the rather small and unexpected global emission growth rate in 2014 while its contribution to the near zero emission growth in 2015 was insignificant.

  8. Seasonal and interannual variability of the eastern boundary circulation and hydrography off Angola

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tchipalanga, Pedro; Macuéria, Marissa; Dengler, Marcus; Ostrowski, Marek; Kopte, Robert; Brandt, Peter

    2016-04-01

    Coastal countries of southwest Africa strongly depend upon their ocean: societal development, fisheries, and tourism face important changes associated with climate variability and global change. As an example, Angolan fisheries are currently reporting reduced catches that may be associated to variability of the eastern boundary circulation and water masses along the Angolan continental margin. In an effort to enhance understanding of the seasonal and interannual variability of the boundary circulation and thermocline water masses and their relation to warm and cold events in South East Atlantic, existing in-situ observations from a multi-cruise program were analyzed. Repeated hydrography and ship-board ADCP measurements from the EAF - Nansen Project collected during the Austral summer and winter period between 1995 and 2014 are used. From the ship-board velocity measurements, the average eastern boundary circulation at 6°S, 9°S, 12°S, 15°S and 17°S is presented for the summer and winter period. CTD data collected during the 24 cruises along the Angolan continental margin exhibit elevated interannual variability of heat and salt content in the upper thermocline between 50 and 150m depth. Warm and cold anomalies in the upper thermocline are strongly correlated to the Angola-Benguela area index and precede the respective sea surface temperature signal. The known warm events in 2001 and 2011 are well represented in the subsurface data. This suggests that thermocline heat anomalies serve as a preconditioning for the occurrences of Benguela Niños/Niñas. The processes responsible for the interannual variability of thermocline heat and salt contend are discussed.

  9. Seasonal and interannual variations in the nitrogen cycle in the Arabian Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rixen, T.; Baum, A.; Gaye, B.; Nagel, B.

    2014-10-01

    The Arabian Sea plays an important role in the marine nitrogen cycle because of its pronounced mid-water oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) in which bio-available nitrate (NO3-) is reduced to dinitrogen gas (N2). As the nitrogen cycle can respond fast to climate-induced changes in productivity and circulation, the Arabian Sea sediments are an important palaeoclimatic archive. In order to understand seasonal and interannual variations in the nitrogen cycle, nutrient data were obtained from the literature published prior to 1993, evaluated, and compared with data measured during five expeditions carried out in the framework of the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) in the Arabian Sea in 1995 and during a research cruise of RV Meteor in 2007. The data comparison showed that the area characterized by a pronounced secondary nitrite maximum (SNM) was by 63% larger in 1995 than a similarly determined estimate based on pre-JGOFS data. This area, referred to as the core of the denitrifying zone, showed strong seasonal and interannual variations driven by the monsoon. During the SW monsoon, the SNM retreated eastward due to the inflow of oxygen-enriched Indian Ocean Central Water (ICW). During the NE monsoon, the SNM expanded westward because of the reversal of the current regime. On an interannual timescale, a weaker SW monsoon decreased the inflow of ICW from the equatorial Indian Ocean and increased the accumulation of denitrification tracers by extending the residence time of water in the SNM. This is supported by palaeoclimatic studies showing an enhanced preservation of accumulative denitrification tracers in marine sediments in conjunction with a weakening of the SW monsoon during the late Holocene.

  10. Seasonal and interannual variations of the nitrogen cycle in the Arabian Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rixen, T.; Baum, A.; Gaye, B.; Nagel, B.

    2013-12-01

    The Arabian Sea is strongly influenced by the Asian monsoon and plays an important role as a climate archive and in the marine nitrogen cycle, because bio-available NO3- is reduced to dinitrogen gas (N2) in its mid-water oxygen minimum layer (OMZ). In order to investigate seasonal and interannual variations of the nitrogen cycle, nutrient data were obtained from the literature prior to 1993, evaluated, and compared with data measured during five expeditions in 1995 as well as a research cruise in 2007. Our results imply that the area characterized by a pronounced secondary nitrite maximum (SNM) was by 63% larger in 1995 than before. This area, referred to as the core of the denitrifying zone, shows strong seasonal and interannual variations driven by the monsoon. During the SW monsoon the SNM retreats eastwards due to the inflow of oxygen-enriched Indian Ocean Central Water (ICW) and it expands westwards during the NE monsoon because of the reversal of the current regime, which allows the propagation of denitrification signals from the Indian shelf into the open Arabian Sea. On an interannual time-scale an enhanced SW monsoon increases NO3- losses by increasing the upwelling-driven carbon export into the subsurface waters. An associate enhanced inflow of ICW increases the transport of denitrification signals from the SNM into the upwelling region and compensates NO3- losses by enhanced NO3- supply from the Indian Ocean. The latter sustains an enhanced productivity, which in turn transfers denitrification signals into the sedimentary records. On glacial interglacial time scales sea level changes affecting the inflow of ICW seem to increase variations in the accumulation of denitrification tracers in the SNM by reducing the residence time during glacial periods.

  11. Inter-annual variability in atmospheric nitrous oxide over the past two decades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, R. L.; Bousquet, P.; Chevallier, F.; Zaehle, S.; Bopp, L.; Dlugokencky, E.

    2012-04-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) concentrations have been steadily increasing in the atmosphere over the past few decades at a rate of approximately 0.3% per year. This trend is of major concern as N2O is both a long-lived greenhouse gas and an Ozone Depleting Substance (ODS). This trend is largely due to the increased input of reactive nitrogen (Nr) to the environment, primarily in N-fertilizers. Before the widespread usage of N-fertilizers, the naturally occurring N2O source was approximately balanced by the atmospheric sink, that is, photochemical destruction in the stratosphere. Super-imposed on the atmospheric trend, is significant inter-annual variability (IAV), which is thought to be mainly determined by inter-annual variations in stratosphere-troposphere exchange. Using global N2O records since the late 1990's (when more than 50 stations are available worldwide), we found significant IAV in the N2O atmospheric growth-rate with a positive anomaly from 1998 to 1999 in the northern hemisphere and a negative anomaly in 2003 in Europe, North America and Asia. To test the influence of the inter-annual variations in emissions versus stratosphere-troposphere exchange on the observed growth-rate, we carried out simulations using the global circulation model, LMDZ4, which was driven using ECMWF reanalysis data and was coupled to emissions estimates from the global eco-system model, Orchidee O-CN and the ocean biogeochemistry model, PISCES, which were also driven by climate data.

  12. The Interannual Stability of Cumulative Frequency Distributions for Convective System Size and Intensity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mohr, Karen I.; Molinari, John; Thorncroft, Chris

    2009-01-01

    The characteristics of convective system populations in West Africa and the western Pacific tropical cyclone basin were analyzed to investigate whether interannual variability in convective activity in tropical continental and oceanic environments is driven by variations in the number of events during the wet season or by favoring large and/or intense convective systems. Convective systems were defined from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data as a cluster of pixels with an 85-GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature below 255 K and with an area of at least 64 square kilometers. The study database consisted of convective systems in West Africa from May to September 1998-2007, and in the western Pacific from May to November 1998-2007. Annual cumulative frequency distributions for system minimum brightness temperature and system area were constructed for both regions. For both regions, there were no statistically significant differences between the annual curves for system minimum brightness temperature. There were two groups of system area curves, split by the TRMM altitude boost in 2001. Within each set, there was no statistically significant interannual variability. Subsetting the database revealed some sensitivity in distribution shape to the size of the sampling area, the length of the sample period, and the climate zone. From a regional perspective, the stability of the cumulative frequency distributions implied that the probability that a convective system would attain a particular size or intensity does not change interannually. Variability in the number of convective events appeared to be more important in determining whether a year is either wetter or drier than normal.

  13. Dynamical evidence for causality between galactic cosmic rays and interannual variation in global temperature.

    PubMed

    Tsonis, Anastasios A; Deyle, Ethan R; May, Robert M; Sugihara, George; Swanson, Kyle; Verbeten, Joshua D; Wang, Geli

    2015-03-17

    As early as 1959, it was hypothesized that an indirect link between solar activity and climate could be mediated by mechanisms controlling the flux of galactic cosmic rays (CR) [Ney ER (1959) Nature 183:451-452]. Although the connection between CR and climate remains controversial, a significant body of laboratory evidence has emerged at the European Organization for Nuclear Research [Duplissy J, et al. (2010) Atmos Chem Phys 10:1635-1647; Kirkby J, et al. (2011) Nature 476(7361):429-433] and elsewhere [Svensmark H, Pedersen JOP, Marsh ND, Enghoff MB, Uggerhøj UI (2007) Proc R Soc A 463:385-396; Enghoff MB, Pedersen JOP, Uggerhoj UI, Paling SM, Svensmark H (2011) Geophys Res Lett 38:L09805], demonstrating the theoretical mechanism of this link. In this article, we present an analysis based on convergent cross mapping, which uses observational time series data to directly examine the causal link between CR and year-to-year changes in global temperature. Despite a gross correlation, we find no measurable evidence of a causal effect linking CR to the overall 20th-century warming trend. However, on short interannual timescales, we find a significant, although modest, causal effect between CR and short-term, year-to-year variability in global temperature that is consistent with the presence of nonlinearities internal to the system. Thus, although CR do not contribute measurably to the 20th-century global warming trend, they do appear as a nontraditional forcing in the climate system on short interannual timescales.

  14. Cold Regime interannual variability of primary and secondary producer community composition in the southeastern Bering Sea.

    PubMed

    Stauffer, Beth A; Miksis-Olds, Jennifer; Goes, Joaquim I

    2015-01-01

    Variability of hydrographic conditions and primary and secondary productivity between cold and warm climatic regimes in the Bering Sea has been the subject of much study in recent years, while interannual variability within a single regime and across multiple trophic levels has been less well-documented. Measurements from an instrumented mooring on the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea were analyzed for the spring-to-summer transitions within the cold regime years of 2009-2012 to investigate the interannual variability of hydrographic conditions, primary producer biomass, and acoustically-derived secondary producer and consumer abundance and community structure. Hydrographic conditions in 2012 were significantly different than in 2009, 2010, and 2011, driven largely by increased ice extent and thickness, later ice retreat, and earlier stratification of the water column. Primary producer biomass was more tightly coupled to hydrographic conditions in 2012 than in 2009 or 2011, and shallow and mid-column phytoplankton blooms tended to occur independent of one another. There was a high degree of variability in the relationships between different classes of secondary producers and hydrographic conditions, evidence of significant intra-consumer interactions, and trade-offs between different consumer size classes in each year. Phytoplankton blooms stimulated different populations of secondary producers in each year, and summer consumer populations appeared to determine dominant populations in the subsequent spring. Overall, primary producers and secondary producers were more tightly coupled to each other and to hydrographic conditions in the coldest year compared to the warmer years. The highly variable nature of the interactions between the atmospherically-driven hydrographic environment, primary and secondary producers, and within food webs underscores the need to revisit how climatic regimes within the Bering Sea are defined and predicted to function given changing

  15. Inter-Annual Variability of Aerosol Optical Depth over East Asia during 2000-2011 summers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, J.; Liu, Y.; Tao, S.

    2013-12-01

    Aerosols degrade air quality, perturb atmospheric radiation, and impact regional and global climate. Due to a rapid increase of anthropogenic emissions, aerosol loading over East Asia (EA) is markedly higher than other industrialized regions, motivating a need to characterize the evolution of aerosols and understand the associated drivers. Based on the MISR satellite data during 2000-2011, a wave-like inter-annual variation of summertime aerosol optical depth (SAOD) is observed over the highly populated North China Plain (NCP) in East Asia. Specifically, the peak to trough ratio of SAOD ranges from 1.4 to 1.6, with a period of 3-4y. This variation pattern differs apparently from what has been seen in EA emissions, indicating a periodic change in regional climate pattern during the past decade. Investigations on meteorological fields over the region reveal that the high SAOD is generally associated with enhanced Philippine Sea Anticyclone Anomaly (PSAA), which weakens southeasterlies over northeastern EA and depresses air ventilation. Alternatively, a higher temperature or lower relative humidity is found to be coincident with reduced SAOD. The behavior of PSAA has been found previously to be modulated by the El Niño southern oscillations (ENSO), which thereby could disturb the EA SAOD as well. Rather than changing coherently with the ENSO activity, SAOD peaks over the NCP are found to be accompanied by the rapid transition of El Niño warm to cold phases developed four months ahead. An index measuring the ENSO development during January-April is able to capture the inter-annual variability of NCP SAOD during 2000-2011. This indicates a need to integrate the consideration of large-scale periodic climate variability in the design of regional air quality policy.

  16. Cold Regime Interannual Variability of Primary and Secondary Producer Community Composition in the Southeastern Bering Sea

    PubMed Central

    Stauffer, Beth A.; Miksis-Olds, Jennifer; Goes, Joaquim I.

    2015-01-01

    Variability of hydrographic conditions and primary and secondary productivity between cold and warm climatic regimes in the Bering Sea has been the subject of much study in recent years, while interannual variability within a single regime and across multiple trophic levels has been less well-documented. Measurements from an instrumented mooring on the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea were analyzed for the spring-to-summer transitions within the cold regime years of 2009–2012 to investigate the interannual variability of hydrographic conditions, primary producer biomass, and acoustically-derived secondary producer and consumer abundance and community structure. Hydrographic conditions in 2012 were significantly different than in 2009, 2010, and 2011, driven largely by increased ice extent and thickness, later ice retreat, and earlier stratification of the water column. Primary producer biomass was more tightly coupled to hydrographic conditions in 2012 than in 2009 or 2011, and shallow and mid-column phytoplankton blooms tended to occur independent of one another. There was a high degree of variability in the relationships between different classes of secondary producers and hydrographic conditions, evidence of significant intra-consumer interactions, and trade-offs between different consumer size classes in each year. Phytoplankton blooms stimulated different populations of secondary producers in each year, and summer consumer populations appeared to determine dominant populations in the subsequent spring. Overall, primary producers and secondary producers were more tightly coupled to each other and to hydrographic conditions in the coldest year compared to the warmer years. The highly variable nature of the interactions between the atmospherically-driven hydrographic environment, primary and secondary producers, and within food webs underscores the need to revisit how climatic regimes within the Bering Sea are defined and predicted to function given

  17. Variability of fire emissions on interannual to multi-decadal timescales in two Earth System models

    DOE PAGES

    Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; ...

    2016-12-02

    Connections between wildfires and modes of variability in climate are sought as a means for predicting fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Several fire drivers, such as temperature and local drought index, have been shown to vary on these timescales, and analysis of tree-ring data suggests covariance between fires and climate oscillation indices in some regions. HBut, the shortness of the satellite record of global fire events limits investigations on larger spatial scales. Here we explore the interplay between climate variability and wildfire emissions with the preindustrial long control numerical experiments and historical ensembles of CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDLmore » ESM2Mb. We find that interannual variability in fires is underpredicted in both Earth System models (ESMs) compared to present day fire emission inventories. Modeled fire emissions respond to the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) with increases in southeast Asia and boreal North America emissions, and decreases in southern North America and Sahel emissions, during the ENSO warm phase in both ESMs, and the PDO warm phase in CESM1. In addition, CESM1 produces decreases in boreal northern hemisphere fire emissions for the warm phase of the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation. Through analysis of the long control simulations, we show that the 20th century trends in both ESMs are statistically significant, meaning that the signal of anthropogenic activity on fire emissions over this time period is detectable above the annual to decadal timescale noise. However, the trends simulated by the two ESMs are of opposite sign (CESM1 decreasing, ESM2Mb increasing), highlighting the need for improved understanding, proxy observations, and modeling to resolve this discrepancy.« less

  18. Variability of fire emissions on interannual to multi-decadal timescales in two Earth System models

    SciTech Connect

    Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; Lamarque, J-F; Wittenberg, A. T.

    2016-12-02

    Connections between wildfires and modes of variability in climate are sought as a means for predicting fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Several fire drivers, such as temperature and local drought index, have been shown to vary on these timescales, and analysis of tree-ring data suggests covariance between fires and climate oscillation indices in some regions. HBut, the shortness of the satellite record of global fire events limits investigations on larger spatial scales. Here we explore the interplay between climate variability and wildfire emissions with the preindustrial long control numerical experiments and historical ensembles of CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDL ESM2Mb. We find that interannual variability in fires is underpredicted in both Earth System models (ESMs) compared to present day fire emission inventories. Modeled fire emissions respond to the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) with increases in southeast Asia and boreal North America emissions, and decreases in southern North America and Sahel emissions, during the ENSO warm phase in both ESMs, and the PDO warm phase in CESM1. In addition, CESM1 produces decreases in boreal northern hemisphere fire emissions for the warm phase of the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation. Through analysis of the long control simulations, we show that the 20th century trends in both ESMs are statistically significant, meaning that the signal of anthropogenic activity on fire emissions over this time period is detectable above the annual to decadal timescale noise. However, the trends simulated by the two ESMs are of opposite sign (CESM1 decreasing, ESM2Mb increasing), highlighting the need for improved understanding, proxy observations, and modeling to resolve this discrepancy.

  19. Variability of fire emissions on interannual to multi-decadal timescales in two Earth System models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Wittenberg, A. T.

    2016-12-01

    Connections between wildfires and modes of variability in climate are sought as a means for predicting fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Several fire drivers, such as temperature and local drought index, have been shown to vary on these timescales, and analysis of tree-ring data suggests covariance between fires and climate oscillation indices in some regions. However, the shortness of the satellite record of global fire events limits investigations on larger spatial scales. Here we explore the interplay between climate variability and wildfire emissions with the preindustrial long control numerical experiments and historical ensembles of CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDL ESM2Mb. We find that interannual variability in fires is underpredicted in both Earth System models (ESMs) compared to present day fire emission inventories. Modeled fire emissions respond to the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) with increases in southeast Asia and boreal North America emissions, and decreases in southern North America and Sahel emissions, during the ENSO warm phase in both ESMs, and the PDO warm phase in CESM1. Additionally, CESM1 produces decreases in boreal northern hemisphere fire emissions for the warm phase of the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation. Through analysis of the long control simulations, we show that the 20th century trends in both ESMs are statistically significant, meaning that the signal of anthropogenic activity on fire emissions over this time period is detectable above the annual to decadal timescale noise. However, the trends simulated by the two ESMs are of opposite sign (CESM1 decreasing, ESM2Mb increasing), highlighting the need for improved understanding, proxy observations, and modeling to resolve this discrepancy.

  20. Why was the 2012 bloom so early? Using chilling and warming metrics to resolve interannual variability in the timing of Alexandrium fundyense bloom initiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, A. D.; Anderson, D. M.; Moore, S.; Brosnahan, M.

    2016-02-01

    The Nauset Marsh System (NMS) on Cape Cod (MA, USA) has recurrent Alexandrium fundyense blooms that have caused nearly annual shellfishing closures due to paralytic shellfish poisoning. Blooms were observed over a multi-year period (2009-2015) to examine the effects of seasonal cooling and warming on the transition from resting cysts to vegetative cells in the plankton. The life cycle processes of cyst dormancy, germination, and vegetative cell growth are all uniquely sensitive to temperature, which can translate to changes in bloom initiation phenology. Bloom initiation (>100 cells/l-1) occurred as early as 14 February 2012, and as late as 15 April 2015. To quantitatively examine the mechanisms responsible for this two-month range, laboratory studies were performed. In experiments mimicking winter's onset, mature cysts were exposed to chilling temperatures (2-8°C), and at regular intervals the germination potential of cyst cohorts was evaluated. Next, in experiments mimicking a range of late-winter, early-spring temperatures, the time to germination was observed for cold-conditioned cysts. To account for the interannual temperature variability in the NMS and enable comparison to laboratory studies, we calculated growing degree-days and chilling-units, both metrics that tabulate accumulated temperature exposures. Here we pair laboratory studies with seven years of bloom data to present a conceptual model of three temperature-dependent phases of bloom initiation for A. fundyense: 1) Winter dormancy. As temperatures cool, cysts enter a state of dormancy during which germination is physiologically inhibited, until they experience a threshold of winter chilling. 2) Quiescence. Cysts are physiologically able to germinate, but require a specific amount of heat, oxygen, and light. 3) Growth. Germling cells transform to vegetative cells, which divide asexually as a function of heat to create the bloom. These results help to explain differences in bloom timing between

  1. Determination of Arctic sea ice variability modes on interannual timescales via nonhierarchical clustering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fučkar, Neven-Stjepan; Guemas, Virginie; Massonnet, François; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco

    2015-04-01

    Over the modern observational era, the northern hemisphere sea ice concentration, age and thickness have experienced a sharp long-term decline superimposed with strong internal variability. Hence, there is a crucial need to identify robust patterns of Arctic sea ice variability on interannual timescales and disentangle them from the long-term trend in noisy datasets. The principal component analysis (PCA) is a versatile and broadly used method for the study of climate variability. However, the PCA has several limiting aspects because it assumes that all modes of variability have symmetry between positive and negative phases, and suppresses nonlinearities by using a linear covariance matrix. Clustering methods offer an alternative set of dimension reduction tools that are more robust and capable of taking into account possible nonlinear characteristics of a climate field. Cluster analysis aggregates data into groups or clusters based on their distance, to simultaneously minimize the distance between data points in a given cluster and maximize the distance between the centers of the clusters. We extract modes of Arctic interannual sea-ice variability with nonhierarchical K-means cluster analysis and investigate the mechanisms leading to these modes. Our focus is on the sea ice thickness (SIT) as the base variable for clustering because SIT holds most of the climate memory for variability and predictability on interannual timescales. We primarily use global reconstructions of sea ice fields with a state-of-the-art ocean-sea-ice model, but we also verify the robustness of determined clusters in other Arctic sea ice datasets. Applied cluster analysis over the 1958-2013 period shows that the optimal number of detrended SIT clusters is K=3. Determined SIT cluster patterns and their time series of occurrence are rather similar between different seasons and months. Two opposite thermodynamic modes are characterized with prevailing negative or positive SIT anomalies over the

  2. Interannual Differences for Sea Turtles Bycatch in Spanish Longliners from Western Mediterranean Sea

    PubMed Central

    Báez, José C.; García-Barcelona, Salvador

    2014-01-01

    Recent studies showed that regional abundance of loggerhead and leatherback turtles could oscillate interannually according to oceanographic and climatic conditions. The Western Mediterranean is an important fishing area for the Spanish drifting longline fleet, which mainly targets swordfish, bluefin tuna, and albacore. Due to the spatial overlapping in fishing activity and turtle distribution, there is an increasing sea turtle conservation concern. The main goal of this study is to analyse the interannual bycatch of loggerhead and leatherback turtles by the Spanish Mediterranean longline fishery and to test the relationship between the total turtle by-catch of this fishery and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During the 14 years covered in this study, the number of sea turtle bycatches was 3,940 loggerhead turtles and 8 leatherback turtles, 0.499 loggerhead turtles/1000 hooks and 0.001014 leatherback turtles/1000 hooks. In the case of the loggerhead turtle the positive phase of the NAO favours an increase of loggerhead turtles in the Western Mediterranean Sea. However, in the case of leatherback turtle the negative phase of the NAO favours the presence of leatherback turtle. This contraposition could be related to the different ecophysiological response of both species during their migration cycle. PMID:24764769

  3. Interannual variability in global mean sea level estimated from the CESM Large and Last Millennium Ensembles

    SciTech Connect

    Fasullo, John T.; Nerem, Robert S.

    2016-10-31

    To better understand global mean sea level (GMSL) as an indicator of climate variability and change, contributions to its interannual variation are quantified in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble and Last Millennium Ensemble. Consistent with expectations, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is found to exert a strong influence due to variability in rainfall over land (PL) and terrestrial water storage (TWS). Other important contributors include changes in ocean heat content (OHC) and precipitable water (PW). The temporal evolution of individual contributing terms is documented. The magnitude of peak GMSL anomalies associated with ENSO generally are of the order of 0.5 mm·K-1 with significant inter-event variability, with a standard deviation (σ) that is about half as large The results underscore the exceptional rarity of the 2010/2011 La Niña-related GMSL drop and estimate the frequency of such an event to be about only once in every 75 years. In addition to ENSO, major volcanic eruptions are found to be a key driver of interannual variability. Associated GMSL variability contrasts with that of ENSO as TWS and PW anomalies initially offset the drop due to OHC reductions but short-lived relative to them. Furthermore, responses up to 25 mm are estimated for the largest eruptions of the Last Millennium.

  4. Interannual variability in global mean sea level estimated from the CESM Large and Last Millennium Ensembles

    DOE PAGES

    Fasullo, John T.; Nerem, Robert S.

    2016-10-31

    To better understand global mean sea level (GMSL) as an indicator of climate variability and change, contributions to its interannual variation are quantified in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble and Last Millennium Ensemble. Consistent with expectations, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is found to exert a strong influence due to variability in rainfall over land (PL) and terrestrial water storage (TWS). Other important contributors include changes in ocean heat content (OHC) and precipitable water (PW). The temporal evolution of individual contributing terms is documented. The magnitude of peak GMSL anomalies associated with ENSO generally are of themore » order of 0.5 mm·K-1 with significant inter-event variability, with a standard deviation (σ) that is about half as large The results underscore the exceptional rarity of the 2010/2011 La Niña-related GMSL drop and estimate the frequency of such an event to be about only once in every 75 years. In addition to ENSO, major volcanic eruptions are found to be a key driver of interannual variability. Associated GMSL variability contrasts with that of ENSO as TWS and PW anomalies initially offset the drop due to OHC reductions but short-lived relative to them. Furthermore, responses up to 25 mm are estimated for the largest eruptions of the Last Millennium.« less

  5. Interannual variability of evapotranspiration and energy exchange over an annual grassland in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryu, Youngryel; Baldocchi, Dennis D.; Ma, Siyan; Hehn, Ted

    2008-05-01

    We report on the interannual variability of evapotranspiration (E) and energy exchange of an annual grassland in the Mediterranean climate zone of California. They were measured directly with the eddy covariance technique over a 6-year period that spanned between July 2001 and June 2007 and experienced a large range in precipitation (376 mm to 888 mm). Despite a two-fold range in precipitation, annual E ranged much less, between 266 mm and 391 mm. We found that pronounced energy-limited and water-limited periods occurred within the same year. In the water-limited period, monthly integrated E scaled negatively with solar radiation and was restrained by precipitation. In the energy-limited period, on the other hand, the majority of E scaled positively with solar radiation (Rg) and was confined by potential E (Ep). E was most sensitive to the availability of soil moisture during the transition to the senescence period rather than onset of the greenness period, causing annual E to be strongly modulated by growing season length. Bulk surface conductance scaled consistently with Priestley-Taylor α coefficient regardless of interannual and seasonal variability of precipitation, E, and solar radiation.

  6. Interannual variability of H218O in precipitation over the Asian monsoon region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ishizaki, Yasuhiro; Yoshimura, Kei; Kanae, Shinjiro; Kimoto, Masahide; Kurita, Naoyuki; Oki, Taikan

    2012-08-01

    The stable isotopic composition of water has been used as a paleoproxy to reconstruct past climates over the Asian monsoon region, but the main controls on the variability of isotopes of water in precipitation have not been characterized quantitatively in this region. Therefore, we used an atmospheric general circulation model incorporating stable water isotope physics to quantitatively estimate the relative contributions to isotope variability in precipitation falling in the Asian monsoon region. As in previous research, we identified two primary factors controlling the interannual variability of δ18Oprecip (defined as (Rsample/RVSMOW - 1) × 1000, where RVSMOW is the 18O ratio in Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water) and its correlation with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events: the amount of precipitation at the observation site, and distillation during transport from source regions. Two sensitivity experiments revealed that distillation during transport from source regions was the dominant controlling factor; at Bangkok, Bombay, and Hong Kong, the amount of local precipitation contributed 27%, 33%, and 25% while distillation processes contributed 70%, 60%, and 70%, respectively. Similarly, distillation processes accounted for 80%, 82%, and 83% of observed differences in δ18Oprecip between El Niño and La Niña years at these three cities, respectively. Therefore, interannual variability of δ18Oprecipat the three stations primarily reflects distillation during transport from source regions, and it is also governed by the large-scale tropical variability (ENSO).

  7. Sensitivity of Interannual Fluctuations of the Marine Ecoystem to Changes in the Ocean Circulation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winguth, A. M.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Dobbel, M.

    2002-12-01

    Factors controlling the interannual distribution of phytoplankton or zooplankton are largely unknown and thus resulting in large uncertainties in the prediction of sources and sinks of CO2 in the ocean. We are using two coupled ocean general circulation - marine ecosystem models with different resolution, the NPZD-type HAMOCC4 coupled to the LSG and the C-HOPE, to explore how different physical resolutions and parameterizations can explain some of the agreements and discrepancies between the data and the model. In addition, sensitivity experiments by variation of the ecosystem parameters and by including an empirical chlorophyll-to-carbon ratio have been carried out to study and discuss potential causes of the model-data differences between the observed and simulated chlorophyll concentrations. These sensitivity experiments are designed to be a first step towards a currently developed inverse ecosystem model to quantify large-scale interannual-to-decadal fluctuations of the marine carbon cycle and to provide more accurate predictions of the climate system.

  8. Interannual differences for sea turtles bycatch in Spanish longliners from Western Mediterranean Sea.

    PubMed

    Báez, José C; Macías, David; García-Barcelona, Salvador; Real, Raimundo

    2014-01-01

    Recent studies showed that regional abundance of loggerhead and leatherback turtles could oscillate interannually according to oceanographic and climatic conditions. The Western Mediterranean is an important fishing area for the Spanish drifting longline fleet, which mainly targets swordfish, bluefin tuna, and albacore. Due to the spatial overlapping in fishing activity and turtle distribution, there is an increasing sea turtle conservation concern. The main goal of this study is to analyse the interannual bycatch of loggerhead and leatherback turtles by the Spanish Mediterranean longline fishery and to test the relationship between the total turtle by-catch of this fishery and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During the 14 years covered in this study, the number of sea turtle bycatches was 3,940 loggerhead turtles and 8 leatherback turtles, 0.499 loggerhead turtles/1000 hooks and 0.001014 leatherback turtles/1000 hooks. In the case of the loggerhead turtle the positive phase of the NAO favours an increase of loggerhead turtles in the Western Mediterranean Sea. However, in the case of leatherback turtle the negative phase of the NAO favours the presence of leatherback turtle. This contraposition could be related to the different ecophysiological response of both species during their migration cycle.

  9. Interannual Variations in Simulated and Observed MSU-2 Temperatures

    SciTech Connect

    Boyle, J.

    2000-08-16

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) channel 2 temperatures are computed for three sets of model experiments and their interannual variation is compared to that of the observed. The models used are: (1) an ensemble of ten integrations of the NCAR CCM3 using prescribed SSTs for 1979 t o 1995, (2) A 300 year integration of the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model (which has the CCM3 as the atmospheric model) and (3) a 300 year integration of the ECHAM4/OPYC coupled model at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. In addition Nino34 and AO indices were computed from SST and MSLP of each data set. The observed data spanned the period of 1979 to 1998. The CCM3 integrations used the observed SSTs from 1979 to 1995. The 300 year coupled runs were divided into non-overlapping 20 year segments and each segment was processed independently. The EOFs of the zonally averaged, monthly mean MSU-2 anomalies were computed. An SVD analysis of the covariance of the tropical (30S-30N) precipitation and MSU-2 was carried out. The first and second mode of the observations are related to the ENSO variations and the Arctic Oscillation, respectively. The Nino34 index leads the ENSO mode by 5 months in the observations. For the nine realizations of the CCM3, all have the ENSO as the leading mode but one does not have the AO as the second. The lag between the Nino34 and leading EOF decreases to about 3 months.The fourteen PCM 20 year segments show a similar variation to the CCM3, but the lag is decreased to 2 months. All fourteen of the ECHAM segments have the ENSO and AO as the leading and second modes. The fourteen ECHAM data sets evince smaller variations between segments than the PCM and even the CCM3 realizations. The lag between the ECHAM Nino34 and the leading EOF is about 3 months.Thus, both coupled models have a substantially faster response to variations in tropical SSTs. This can affect the way that these models simulate the relation between the seasonal cycle and ENSO.

  10. Impact of external forcing on simulated hydroclimate from interannual to multicentennial timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roldán, Pedro; Fidel González-Rouco, Jesús; Melo-Aguilar, Camilo

    2017-04-01

    During the last millennium, external forcing experienced important changes in different timescales. It has been demostrated that these changes had an impact on climate. In particular, changes in solar activity, volcanic eruptions and emissions of greenhouse gases are related to short-term and long-term changes in global temperatures, with situations of higher total external forcing generally related with higher global and hemispherical temperatures, and conversely with situations of lower forcing. This connection is clearly observed in climate simulations from different models and in proxy-based reconstructions. The changes in external forcing can also explain certain changes in atmospheric dynamics and hydroclimate, although in this case it is in general more difficult to trace causality arguments. Analyses based on simulations from two different models (ECHO-G and CESM-LME) have been performed, to assess the impact of external forcing on climate in timescales ranging from interannual to multicentennial. Various climatic variables have been analysed, including temperature, sea level pressure, surface wind, precipitation and soil moisture. For interannual timescales, composites have been defined with the years before and after the main volcanic eruptions of the last millennium as well as the minima of solar activity during this period. For longer timescales, a Principal Component analysis has been performed, to try to separate the signal of external forcing from that of internal variability. This has been done for the whole millennium and for the pre-industrial period, to assess the difference between natural and anthropogenic forcing. For multicentennial timescales, composites for the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ca. 950-1250), the Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1450-1850) and the 20th Century have been compared. These three periods were respectively characterised by higher, lower and higher forcing. This allows to assess the contribution of external forcing to the

  11. A multimodel approach to interannual and seasonal prediction of Danube discharge anomalies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Patrut, Simona; Dima, Mihai

    2010-05-01

    Interannual and seasonal predictability of Danube river discharge is investigated using three model types: 1) time series models 2) linear regression models of discharge with large-scale climate mode indices and 3) models based on stable teleconnections. All models are calibrated using discharge and climatic data for the period 1901-1977 and validated for the period 1978-2008 . Various time series models, like autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA), autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) or singular spectrum analysis and autoregressive moving average (SSA+ARMA) models have been calibrated and their skills evaluated. The best results were obtained using SSA+ARMA models. SSA+ARMA models proved to have the highest forecast skill also for other European rivers (Gamiz-Fortis et al. 2008). Multiple linear regression models using large-scale climatic mode indices as predictors have a higher forecast skill than the time series models. The best predictors for Danube discharge are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic/Western Russia patterns during winter and spring. Other patterns, like Polar/Eurasian or Tropical Northern Hemisphere (TNH) are good predictors for summer and autumn discharge. Based on stable teleconnection approach (Ionita et al. 2008) we construct prediction models through a combination of sea surface temperature (SST), temperature (T) and precipitation (PP) from the regions where discharge and SST, T and PP variations are stable correlated. Forecast skills of these models are higher than forecast skills of the time series and multiple regression models. The models calibrated and validated in our study can be used for operational prediction of interannual and seasonal Danube discharge anomalies. References Gamiz-Fortis, S., D. Pozo-Vazquez, R.M. Trigo, and Y. Castro-Diez, Quantifying the predictability of winter river flow in Iberia. Part I: intearannual predictability. J. Climate, 2484-2501, 2008. Gamiz-Fortis, S., D. Pozo

  12. Recurrent groin hernia

    PubMed Central

    Cox, P. J.; Leach, R. D.; Ellis, Harold

    1981-01-01

    One hundred consecutive recurrences following repair of inguinal hernias have been studied; 62 were direct, 30 indirect, 7 pantaloon and one a femoral hernia. Half the indirect recurrences occurred within a year of repair and probably represented failure to detect a small indirect sac. Later indirect recurrences probably represented failure to repair the internal ring. Nine of the direct hernias were medial funicular recurrences and represented failure to anchor the darn medially. The rest of the direct recurrences were attributable to tissue insufficiency and could probably have been averted by larger tissue bites. Recurrences following inguinal herniorrhaphy remain an all too common problem but can be reduced by meticulous surgical technique. PMID:7339602

  13. Exploring Interannual Sandbar Behavior Along a High-Energy Dissipative Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohn, N.; Ruggiero, P.; Walstra, D.

    2012-12-01

    The Columbia River Littoral Cell (CRLC) in the Pacific Northwest is a modally dissipative coastline characterized by fine-grained sediment and high wave energy. Storms of magnitude are frequent in this region, with significant wave heights exceeding 10 m approximately once per year. Sandbars in the CRLC have been observed to follow the interannual pattern of net offshore migration (NOM) that has been observed at several other locations, with bars typically forming close to shore, migrating seaward, and ultimately degenerating offshore. Including playing a major role in local sand budgets, sandbars also influence circulation patterns and storm impact to the coast. Despite the importance of these geomorphic features to coastal environments much is still unknown concerning the dominant mechanics that drive interannual sandbar behavior. A recent, three-year model hindcast of bar evolution off the coast of the Netherlands (Noordwijk) indicated that bar response is most heavily influenced by two factors: the directionality of waves relative to the coastline and the depth of the bar crest below the water surface (D.J.R. Walstra, A.J.H.M. Reniers, R. Ranasinghe, J.A. Roelcink, and B.G. Ruessink, Coast Eng. 47:190-200, 2012). While other factors such as wave height, wave period, and tidal elevation were recognized as influencing bar morphology, overall they were determined to play a subordinate role in bar behavior. In order to test whether the conclusions from the Noordwijk study are generally valid, the same model (Unibest-TC) and approach will be applied to bathymetric data from the CRLC. Because the CRLC and Noordwijk have widely different physical characteristics (e.g., wave climate, sediment supply, beach slope, tidal range) the CRLC provides a sharply different environment for which to investigate interannual bar behavior. Annual nearshore bathymetric surveys in the CRLC have been completed for over a decade using personal watercraft outfitted with the Coastal

  14. Inter-annual variability in Alaskan net ecosystem CO2 exchange

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luus, Kristina; Lindaas, Jakob; Commane, Roisin; Euskirchen, Eugenie; Oechel, Walter; Zona, Donatella; Chang, Rachel; Kelly, Richard; Miller, Charles; Wofsy, Steven; Lin, John

    2015-04-01

    The high-latitude biospheric carbon cycle's responses to climate change are predicted to have an important role in determining future atmospheric concentrations of CO2. In response to warming soil and air temperatures, Arctic wetlands have been observed to increase rates of both soil C efflux and vegetation C uptake through photosynthesis. However, insights into the regional-scale consequences of these processes for net C uptake have been limited by the large uncertainties existing in process-based model estimates of Arctic net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE). The Polar Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (PolarVPRM) instead provides data-driven, satellite-based estimates of high-latitude NEE, using a framework which specifically accounts for polar influences on NEE. PolarVPRM calculates NEE as the sum of respiration (R) and gross ecosystem exchange (GEE), where GEE refers to the light-dependent portion of NEE: NEE= -GEE + R. Meteorological inputs for PolarVPRM are provided by the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and land surface inputs are acquired from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Growing season R is calculated from air temperature, and subnivean R is calculated according to soil temperature. GEE is calculated according to shortwave radiation, air temperature, and MODIS-derived estimates of soil moisture and vegetation biomass. Previously, model validation has indicated that PolarVPRM showed reasonably good agreement with eddy covariance observations at nine North American Arctic sites, of which three were used for calibration purposes. For this project, PolarVPRM NEE was calculated year-round across Alaska at a three-hourly temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 1 6°×1 4° (latitude × longitude). The objective of this work was to gain insight into inter-annual variability in Alaskan NEE, R and GEE, and an understanding of which meteorological and land surface drivers account for these observed patterns

  15. The relationships between temperature changes and reproductive investment in a Mediterranean goby: Insights for the assessment of climate change effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zucchetta, M.; Cipolato, G.; Pranovi, F.; Antonetti, P.; Torricelli, P.; Franzoi, P.; Malavasi, S.

    2012-04-01

    The relationships between changes in water temperature and the timing and level of reproductive investment were investigated in an estuarine fish, inhabiting the Venice lagoon: the grass goby Zosterisessor ophiocephalus. A time series of the mean monthly values of gonado-somatic index was coupled with thermal profiles of lagoon water temperatures over 14 years, from 1997 to 2010. Results showed that the reproductive investment was positively affected by water temperature changes, both in terms of monthly thermal anomalies and cumulative degree days. A predictive model was also developed to assess the temporal shift of reproductive peaks as a response to inter-annual thermal fluctuations. This model allowed the detection of deviations from the median level, indicating that during warmer years, the reproductive peak tended to occur earlier than during colder years. The model is therefore proposed as a tool to predict anticipated consequences of climate change on fish phenology in transitional waters, regarding recurrent biological phenomena, such as reproduction and recruitment.

  16. Interannual variability of crop water footprint

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tuninetti, M.; Tamea, S.; Laio, F.; Ridolfi, L.

    2016-12-01

    The crop water footprint, CWF, is a useful tool to investigate the water-food nexus, since it measures the water requirement for crop production. Heterogeneous spatial patterns of climatic conditions and agricultural practices have inspired a flourishing literature on the geographic assessment of CWF, mostly referred to a fixed (time-averaged) period. However, given that both climatic conditions and crop yield may vary substantially over time, also the CWF temporal dynamics need to be addressed. As other studies have done, we base the CWF variability on yield, while keeping the crop evapotranspiration constant over time. As a new contribution, we prove the feasibility of this approach by comparing these CWF estimates with the results obtained with a full model considering variations of crop evapotranspiration: overall, the estimates compare well showing high coefficients of determination that read 0.98 for wheat, 0.97 for rice, 0.97 for maize, and 0.91 for soybean. From this comparison, we derive also the precision of the method, which is around ±10% that is higher than the precision of the model used to evaluate the crop evapotranspiration (i.e., ±30%). Over the period between 1961 and 2013, the CWF of the most cultivated grains has sharply decreased on a global basis (i.e., -68% for wheat, -62% for rice, -66% for maize, and -52% for soybean), mainly driven by enhanced yield values. The higher water use efficiency in crop production implies a reduced virtual displacement of embedded water per ton of traded crop and as a result, the temporal variability of virtual water trade is different if considering constant or time-varying CWF. The proposed yield-based approach to estimate the CWF variability implies low computational costs and requires limited input data, thus, it represents a promising tool for time-dependent water footprint assessments.

  17. [Chronic recurrent multifocal osteomyelitis].

    PubMed

    Marrero Calvo, M; Merino Arribas, J; Rodrigo Palacios, J; Bartolomé Albistegui, M; Camino Fernández, A; Grande Sáez, C

    2001-02-01

    Chronic recurrent multifocal osteomyelitis is a rare disorder of unknown etiology, characterized by multiple bone lesions and a variable clinical course. We present a 10 year old boy with chronic recurrent multifocal osteomyelitis who improved after treatment with naproxen.

  18. Recurrent aphthous stomatitis.

    PubMed

    Chattopadhyay, Amit; Shetty, Kishore V

    2011-02-01

    Recurrent aphthous stomatitis is a common oral ulcerative disease, affecting 10% to 15% of the general US population. This article reviews the epidemiology and clinical presentations of recurrent aphthous stomatitis, including diagnosis and management.

  19. Interannual variability of the global net radiation balance and its consequence on global energy transport

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Eric A.; Sohn, B. J.

    1990-01-01

    Global cloudiness and radiation budget data from Nimbus 6 and 7 are used to investigate the role of cloud and surface radiative forcing and elements of the earth's general circulation. Although globally integrated cloud forcing is nearly zero, there are large regional imbalances and well regulated processes in the shortwave and longwave spectrum that control the meridional gradient structure of the net radiation balance and the factors modulating the east-west oriented North Africa-western Pacific energy transport dipole. The analysis demonstrates that clouds play a dual role in both the shortwave and longwave spectra in terms of tropical and midlatitude east-west gradients. The key result is that cloud forcing, although not always the principle regulator of interannual variability of the global climate, serves to reinforce the basic three-cell meridional circulation.

  20. Trace gas variability within the Asian monsoon anticyclone on intraseasonal and interannual timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nützel, Matthias; Dameris, Martin; Fierli, Federico; Stiller, Gabriele; Garny, Hella; Jöckel, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    The Asian monsoon and the associated monsoon anticyclone have the potential of substantially influencing the composition of the UTLS (upper troposphere/lower stratosphere) and hence global climate. Here we study the variability of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone in the UTLS on intraseasonal and interannual timescales using results from long term simulations performed with the CCM EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry). In particular, we focus on specified dynamics simulations (Newtonian relaxation to ERA-Interim data) covering the period 1980-2013, which have been performed within the ESCiMo (Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling) project (Jöckel et al., GMDD, 2015). Our main focus lies on variability of the anticyclone's strength (in terms of potential vorticity, geopotential and circulation) and variability in trace gas signatures (O3, H2O) within the anticyclone. To support our findings, we also include observations from satellites (MIPAS, MLS). Our work is linked to the EU StratoClim campaign in 2016.

  1. Interannual Variation in Root Production in Grasslands Affected by Artificially Modified Amount of Rainfall

    PubMed Central

    Fiala, Karel; Tůma, Ivan; Holub, Petr

    2012-01-01

    The effect of different amounts of rainfall on the below-ground plant biomass was studied in three grassland ecosystems. Responses of the lowland (dry Festuca grassland), highland (wet Cirsium grassland), and mountain (Nardus grassland) grasslands were studied during five years (2006–2010). A field experiment based on rainout shelters and gravity irrigation simulated three climate scenarios: rainfall reduced by 50% (dry), rainfall increased by 50% (wet), and the natural rainfall of the current growing season (ambient). The interannual variation in root increment and total below-ground biomass reflected the experimentally manipulated amount of precipitation and also the amount of current rainfall of individual years. The effect of year on these below-ground parameters was found significant in all studied grasslands. In comparison with dry Festuca grassland, better adapted to drought, submontane wet Cirsium grassland was more sensitive to the different water inputs forming rather lower amount of below-ground plant matter at reduced precipitation. PMID:22629201

  2. Interannual variation in root production in grasslands affected by artificially modified amount of rainfall.

    PubMed

    Fiala, Karel; Tůma, Ivan; Holub, Petr

    2012-01-01

    The effect of different amounts of rainfall on the below-ground plant biomass was studied in three grassland ecosystems. Responses of the lowland (dry Festuca grassland), highland (wet Cirsium grassland), and mountain (Nardus grassland) grasslands were studied during five years (2006-2010). A field experiment based on rainout shelters and gravity irrigation simulated three climate scenarios: rainfall reduced by 50% (dry), rainfall increased by 50% (wet), and the natural rainfall of the current growing season (ambient). The interannual variation in root increment and total below-ground biomass reflected the experimentally manipulated amount of precipitation and also the amount of current rainfall of individual years. The effect of year on these below-ground parameters was found significant in all studied grasslands. In comparison with dry Festuca grassland, better adapted to drought, submontane wet Cirsium grassland was more sensitive to the different water inputs forming rather lower amount of below-ground plant matter at reduced precipitation.

  3. Interannual variability of carbon cycle implied by a 2-d atmospheric transport model.

    PubMed

    Can, Li; Xu, Li; Shao, Min; Zhang, Ren-Jian

    2004-01-01

    A 2-dimensional atmospheric transport model is deployed in a simplified CO2 inverse study. Calculated carbon flux distribution for the interval from 1981 to 1997 confirms the existence of a terrestrial carbon sink in mid-high latitude area of North Hemisphere. Strong interannual variability exists in carbon flux patterns, implying a possible link with ENSO and other natural episodes such as Pinatubo volcano eruption in 1991. Mechanism of this possible link was investigated with statistic method. Correlation analysis indicated that in North Hemisphere, climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation, to some extend, could influence the carbon cycle process of land and ocean, thus cause considerable change in carbon flux distribution. In addition, correlation study also demonstrated the possible, important role of Asian terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle.

  4. Interannual variability of the global net radiation balance and its consequence on global energy transport

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Eric A.; Sohn, B. J.

    1990-01-01

    Global cloudiness and radiation budget data from Nimbus 6 and 7 are used to investigate the role of cloud and surface radiative forcing and elements of the earth's general circulation. Although globally integrated cloud forcing is nearly zero, there are large regional imbalances and well regulated processes in the shortwave and longwave spectrum that control the meridional gradient structure of the net radiation balance and the factors modulating the east-west oriented North Africa-western Pacific energy transport dipole. The analysis demonstrates that clouds play a dual role in both the shortwave and longwave spectra in terms of tropical and midlatitude east-west gradients. The key result is that cloud forcing, although not always the principle regulator of interannual variability of the global climate, serves to reinforce the basic three-cell meridional circulation.

  5. On the predictability of the interannual behaviour of the Madden-Julian oscillation and its relationship with El Nino

    SciTech Connect

    Sperber, K.R., LLNL

    1998-03-01

    The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability at intraseasonal timescales. It displays substantial interannual variability in intensity which may have important implications for the predictability of the coupled system. The reasons for this interannual variability are not understood. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the interannual behavior of the MJO is related to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, particularly El Nino, and hence whether it is predictable. The interannual behavior of the MJO has been diagnosed initially in the 40-year NCEP/ NCAR Reanalysis. The results suggest that prior to the mid-1970s the activity of the MJO was consistently lower than during the latter part of the record. This may be related to either inadequacies in the data coverage, particularly over the tropical Indian Ocean prior to the introduction of satellite observations, or to the real effects of a decadal timescale warming in the tropical SSTs. The teleconnection patterns between interannual variations in MJO activity and SST show only a weak, barely significant, influence of El Nino in which the MJO is more active during the cold phase. As well as the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, a 4-member ensemble of 45 year integrations with the Hadley Centre climate model (HadAM2a), forced by observed SSTs for 1949-93, has been used to investigate the relationship between MJO activity and SST. HadAM2a is known to give a reasonable simulation of the MJO and the extended record provided by this ensemble of integrations allows a more robust investigation of the predictability of MJO activity than was possible with the 40-year NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. The results have shown that, for the uncoupled system, with the atmosphere being driven by imposed SSTS, there is no reproducibility for the activity of the MJO from year to year. The interannual behavior of the MJO is not controlled by the phase of El Nino and would appear to be chaotic in

  6. The interannual variability of the Haines Index over North America

    Treesearch

    Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman; Joseph J. Charney

    2013-01-01

    The Haines index (HI) is a fire-weather index that is widely used as an indicator of the potential for dry, low-static-stability air in the lower atmosphere to contribute to erratic fire behavior or large fire growth. This study examines the interannual variability of HI over North America and its relationship to indicators of large-scale circulation anomalies. The...

  7. Interannual variability of ring formations in the Gulf Stream region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sasaki, Y. N.

    2016-02-01

    An oceanic ring in the Gulf Stream (GS) region plays important roles in across-jet transport of heat, salt, momentum, and nutrients. This study examines interannual variability of rings shed from the GS jet and their properties using satellite altimeter observations from 1993 to 2013. An objective method is used to capture a ring shedding from the GS jet and track its movement. A spatial distribution of the ring formations in the GS region showed that both cyclonic (cold-core) and anticyclonic (warm-core) rings were most frequently formed around the New England Seamount chain between 62°-65°W, suggesting the importance of the bottom topography on the pinch-off process. These rings moved westward, although about two-third of these rings was reabsorbed by the GS jet. The number of ring formations, especially cyclonic ring formations, indicated prominent fluctuations on interannual to decadal timescales. The annual maximum number of the pinched-off rings is four times larger than the annual minimum number of the rings. These fluctuations of the ring formations were negatively correlated with the strength of the GS. This situation is similar that in the Kuroshio Extension region. The interannual variability of the number of ring formations is also negatively correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index with one-year lag (NAO leads). Interannual variations of the propagation tendency and shape of rings are also discussed.

  8. Interannual variability in species composition explained as seasonally entrained chaos.

    PubMed

    Dakos, Vasilis; Benincà, Elisa; van Nes, Egbert H; Philippart, Catharina J M; Scheffer, Marten; Huisman, Jef

    2009-08-22

    The species composition of plankton, insect and annual plant communities may vary markedly from year to year. Such interannual variability is usually thought to be driven by year-to-year variation in weather conditions. Here we examine an alternative explanation. We studied the effects of regular seasonal forcing on a multi-species predator-prey model consisting of phytoplankton and zooplankton species. The model predicts that interannual variability in species composition can easily arise without interannual variability in external conditions. Seasonal forcing increased the probability of chaos in our model communities, but squeezed these irregular species dynamics within the seasonal cycle. As a result, the population dynamics had a peculiar character. Consistent with long-term time series of natural plankton communities, seasonal variation led to a distinct seasonal succession of species, yet the species composition varied from year to year in an irregular fashion. Our results suggest that interannual variability in species composition is an intrinsic property of multi-species communities in seasonal environments.

  9. Interannual variability in species composition explained as seasonally entrained chaos

    PubMed Central

    Dakos, Vasilis; Benincà, Elisa; van Nes, Egbert H.; Philippart, Catharina J. M.; Scheffer, Marten; Huisman, Jef

    2009-01-01

    The species composition of plankton, insect and annual plant communities may vary markedly from year to year. Such interannual variability is usually thought to be driven by year-to-year variation in weather conditions. Here we examine an alternative explanation. We studied the effects of regular seasonal forcing on a multi-species predator–prey model consisting of phytoplankton and zooplankton species. The model predicts that interannual variability in species composition can easily arise without interannual variability in external conditions. Seasonal forcing increased the probability of chaos in our model communities, but squeezed these irregular species dynamics within the seasonal cycle. As a result, the population dynamics had a peculiar character. Consistent with long-term time series of natural plankton communities, seasonal variation led to a distinct seasonal succession of species, yet the species composition varied from year to year in an irregular fashion. Our results suggest that interannual variability in species composition is an intrinsic property of multi-species communities in seasonal environments. PMID:19474038

  10. Interannual variation of the Asian-Pacific oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Lu; Chen, Lin

    2017-03-01

    Previous studies have identified an Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) teleconnection pattern, which exhibits an out-of-phase relationship in the summer tropospheric temperature with warming over the Eurasia and cooling over the Northern Pacific and the Northern America, and vice versa. But the interannual variation of this teleconnection remains obscure. This study points out that interannual variation of the APO teleconnection is associated with the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of the northern-hemisphere upper tropospheric temperature during boreal summer, which accounts for 14% of the variance. A heat budget analysis is conducted for the Eurasian region and the North Pacific region respectively to reveal the cause of the zonal dipole mode temperature structure. For the Eurasia region, the warming is contributed by the adiabatic heating process due to downward vertical motion anomalies. For the Northern Pacific region, the temperature variation is mainly contributed by zonal advection associated with interannual zonal wind perturbation acting on the climatological temperature gradient. Composite analysis and numerical experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) shows the interannual zonal wind perturbation is related to the sea surface temperature anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific.

  11. Sensitivity of CFC-11 uptake to physical initial conditions and interannually varying surface forcing in a global ocean model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Peacock, Synte; Lindsay, Keith; Tsumune, Daisuke

    Sensitivity of the oceanic chlorofluorocarbon CFC-11 uptake to physical initial conditions and surface dynamical forcing (heat and salt fluxes and wind stress) is investigated in a global ocean model used in climate studies. Two different initial conditions are used: a solution following a short integration starting with observed temperature and salinity and zero velocities, and the quasi-equilibrium solution of an independent integration. For surface dynamical forcing, recently developed normal-year and interannually varying (1958-2000) data sets are used. The model CFC-11 global and basin inventories, particularly in the normal-year forcing case, are below the observed mean estimates, but they remain within the observational error bars. Column inventory spatial distributions indicate nontrivial differences due to both initial condition and forcing changes, particularly in the northern North Atlantic and Southern Ocean. These differences are larger between forcing sensitivity experiments than between the initial condition cases. The comparisons along the A16N and SR3 WOCE sections also show differences between cases. However, comparisons with observations do not clearly favor a particular case, and model-observation differences remain much larger than model-model differences for all simulations. The choice of initial condition does not significantly change the CFC-11 distributions. Both because of locally large differences between normal-year and interannually varying simulations and because the dynamical and CFC-11 forcing calendars are synchronized, we favor using the more realistic interannually varying forcing in future simulations, given the availability of the forcing data sets.

  12. Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Class-Specific Primary Production at a Global Scale

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rousseaux, Cecile Severine; Gregg, Watson W.

    2014-01-01

    We used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of 4 phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. First we assessed the contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production at a global scale for the period 1998-2011. Globally, diatoms were the group that contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production (50, the equivalent of 20 PgC y-1. Coccolithophores and chlorophytes each contributed to 20 (7 PgC y-1 of the total primary production and cyanobacteria represented about 10 (4 PgC y(sub-1) of the total primary production. Primary production by diatoms was highest in high latitude (45) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We then assessed interannual variability of this group-specific primary production over the period 1998-2011. Globally the annual relative contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production varied by maximum 4 (1-2 PgC y-1. We assessed the effects of climate variability on the class-specific primary production using global (i.e. Multivariate El Nio Index, MEI) and regional climate indices (e.g. Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability as indicated by significant correlation (p 0.05) between the MEI and the class-specific primary production from all groups except coccolithophores. In the Atlantic, climate variability as indicated by NAO was significantly correlated to the primary production of 2 out of the 4 groups in the North Central Atlantic (diatomscyanobacteria) and in the North Atlantic (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). We found that climate variability as indicated by SAM had only a limited effect on the class-specific primary production in the Southern Ocean. These results provide a modeling and

  13. Interannual Variations and Trends in Global Land Surface Phenology Derived from Enhanced Vegetation Index During 1982-2010

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhang, Xiaoyang; Tan, Bin; Yu, Yunyue

    2014-01-01

    Land swiace phenology is widely retrieved from satellite observations at regional and global scales, and its long-term record has been demonstmted to be a valuable tool for reconstructing past climate variations, monitoring the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems in response to climate impacts, and predicting biological responses to future climate scenarios. This srudy detected global land surface phenology from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 1982 to 2010. Based on daily enhanced vegetation index at a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees, we simulated the seasonal vegetative trajectory for each individual pixel using piecewise logistic models, which was then used to detect the onset of greenness increase (OGI) and the length of vegetation growing season (GSL). Further, both overall interannual variations and pixel-based trends were examIned across Koeppen's climate regions for the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010, respectively. The results show that OGI and OSL varied considerably during 1982-2010 across the globe. Generally, the interarmual variation could be more than a month in precipitation-controlled tropical and dry climates while it was mainly less than 15 days in temperature-controlled temperate, cold, and polar climates. OGI, overall, shifted early, and GSL was prolonged from 1982 to 2010 in most climate regions in North America and Asia while the consistently significant trends only occurred in cold climate and polar climate in North America. The overall trends in Europe were generally insignificant. Over South America, late OGI was consistent (particularly from 1982 to 1999) while either positive or negative OSL trends in a climate region were mostly reversed between the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010. In the Northern Hemisphere of Africa, OGI trends were mostly insignificant, but prolonged GSL was evident over individual climate regions during the last 3

  14. Interannual variability of Eastern China Summer Rainfall: the origins of the meridional triple and dipole modes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Chao; Lin, Ailan; Gu, Dejun; Li, Chunhui; Zheng, Bin; Zhou, Tianjun

    2017-01-01

    The Eastern China Summer Rainfall (ECSR) has a strong interannual variability, and the leading mode of interannual ECSR variability is characterized by either meridional triple or dipole structures as claimed by previous studies. In this study, decadal differences of the leading ECSR modes are investigated, using observational data and long-term integrations of climate models. Observational analyses show that the leading mode of ECSR is characterized by a meridional triple structure during 1979-1993 whereas a meridional dipole structure during 1994-2014. In the 200-year air-sea coupled simulation of Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4), the leading mode of ECSR is characterized by triple structure in some decades whereas dipole structure in other decades, and decadal shifts between the triple and dipole structures are seen. In the 200-year simulation of the stand-alone atmospheric component of CCSM4 (i.e., CAM4) forced by fixed SST annual cycle, the triple mode and dipole mode are also identified, suggesting both of these two modes and their decadal shift can be generated by atmospheric internal dynamics without air-sea interaction. As agreed by observation, CCSM4 and CAM4 simulations, the positive (negative) phase of the triple leading mode is associated with enhanced (weakened) western north Pacific subtropical high, southward (northward) shifted East Asian jet, and meridional wave train along the East Asian coast. The positive (negative) phase of the dipole leading mode is associated with enhanced (weakened) western north Pacific subtropical high, enhanced (weakened) East Asian jet, and zonal wave train over mid-latitude Eurasian continent.

  15. Interannual variability in the atmospheric CO2 rectification over a boreal forest region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Baozhang; Chen, Jing M.; Worthy, Douglas E. J.

    2005-08-01

    Ecosystem CO2 exchange with the atmosphere and the planetary boundary layer (PBL) dynamics are correlated diurnally and seasonally. The strength of this kind of covariation is quantified as the rectifier effect, and it affects the vertical gradient of CO2 and thus the global CO2 distribution pattern. An 11-year (1990-1996, 1999-2002), continuous CO2 record from Fraserdale, Ontario (49°52'29.9″N, 81°34'12.3″W), along with a coupled vertical diffusion scheme (VDS) and ecosystem model named Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS), are used to investigate the interannual variability of the rectifier effect over a boreal forest region. The coupled model performed well (r2 = 0.70 and 0.87, at 40 m at hourly and daily time steps, respectively) in simulating CO2 vertical diffusion processes. The simulated annual atmospheric rectifier effect varies from 3.99 to 5.52 ppm, while the diurnal rectifying effect accounted for about a quarter of the annual total (22.8˜28.9%).The atmospheric rectification of CO2 is not simply influenced by terrestrial source and sink strengths, but by seasonal and diurnal variations in the land CO2 flux and their interaction with PBL dynamics. Air temperature and moisture are found to be the dominant climatic factors controlling the rectifier effect. The annual rectifier effect is highly correlated with annual mean temperature (r2 = 0.84), while annual mean air relative humidity can explain 51% of the interannual variation in rectification. Seasonal rectifier effect is also found to be more sensitive to climate variability than diurnal rectifier effect.

  16. Hawaiian albatrosses track interannual variability of marine habitats in the North Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kappes, Michelle A.; Shaffer, Scott A.; Tremblay, Yann; Foley, David G.; Palacios, Daniel M.; Robinson, Patrick W.; Bograd, Steven J.; Costa, Daniel P.

    2010-07-01

    We studied the foraging behavior and marine habitats used by Laysan ( Phoebastria immutabilis) and Black-footed ( Phoebastria nigripes) Albatrosses, during four consecutive breeding seasons to investigate whether these marine predators changed habitat preferences, foraging distributions, or both, in accordance with natural interannual variability in the marine environment. We used satellite telemetry to track a total of 37 Laysan and 36 Black-footed Albatrosses during the incubation periods of 2002-2006 at Tern Island, Northwest Hawaiian Islands. First passage time analysis was used to determine search effort of individual albatrosses along their respective tracks, and this metric was then related to oceanographic habitat variables using linear mixed-effects regression. The majority of individuals traveled to pelagic waters of the North Pacific, with Laysan Albatrosses demonstrating a more northwesterly distribution from the breeding colony. Laysan Albatrosses traveled farther, for longer periods, and demonstrated greater interannual variability in trip characteristics than Black-footed Albatrosses. For Laysan Albatrosses, maximum trip distance was negatively correlated with body mass change during foraging and overall breeding success. There was considerable interspecific segregation of foraging habitats, and low overlap of foraging distributions between years. For all years, and both species, sea surface temperature was consistently the most important environmental variable predicting search effort of albatrosses, suggesting that both species use similar environmental cues when searching for prey. In the context of climate variability, our results suggest that Hawaiian albatrosses demonstrate flexibility in foraging strategies and track preferred marine habitats. However, adjusting foraging behavior to climatic variability may have energetic, and subsequent reproductive consequences.

  17. Seasonal and interannual litter dynamics of a tropical semideciduous forest of the southern Amazon Basin, Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanches, Luciana; Valentini, Carla Maria Abido; Júnior, Osvaldo Borges Pinto; de Souza Nogueira, José; Vourlitis, George Louis; Biudes, Marcelo Sacardi; da Silva, Carlos José; Bambi, Paulino; de Almeida Lobo, Francisco

    2008-12-01

    This study analyzed how seasonal and interannual variations in climate alter litter dynamics, including production, decomposition, and accumulation. Monthly measurements of leaf, stem, and reproductive (flower plus fruit) litter and the forest floor litter mass were combined with a mass balance model to determine rates of litter decomposition for a semideciduous tropical forest located in the rain forest-savanna ecotone of the southern Amazon Basin for 2001-2007. Annual rates of litter production varied between 8 and 10.5 Mg ha-1 a-1, and leaf litter production accounted for the majority (˜70%) of the total litter production. Leaf litter production peaked at the end of the May-August dry season while stem litter production peaked during the wet season and reproductive litter production peaked during the dry-wet season transition. Forest floor litter mass ranged between 5 and 8 Mg ha-1 over the study period and generally declined as litter inputs declined. Litter decomposition rates were remarkably stable from year-to-year and varied between 10.8 and 12.4 Mg ha-1 a-1. On average, rates of litter decomposition were highest during the dry-wet season transition. Overall, our results suggest that rainfall variability directly altered litter production dynamics and indirectly altered forest floor litter mass and decomposition kinetics through its effect on litter production. Future changes in seasonal and/or interannual rainfall patterns, whether in response to El Niño or to anthropogenic climate change, will likely have important consequences for the litter dynamics of Amazonian semideciduous forest.

  18. Inter-annual Variability of Aboveground Net Primary Productivity in Regenerating Tropical Dry Forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Powers, J. S.; Becknell, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    Globally, there are now more secondary forests regenerating following anthropogenic disturbance than primary forests. However, carbon dynamics in secondary tropical forests in general, and seasonally dry forests in particular, have not been as well studied as primary wet forests. Young, regenerating forests may be more sensitive to climatic variability than older forests because of their dynamic demographic rates. Similarly, seasonally dry tropical forests may be particularly sensitive to changes in precipitation, as tree growth is highly constrained by water availability. We examined how inter-annual variability in precipitation affected above-ground net primary productivity in chronosequences of dry forest in Costa Rica. Our sites included three forest cover types, whose distribution is linked to edaphic variation. Over our 6-yr dataset, annual rainfall varied from 1110 to 3040mm, with a 5-6 month dry season. ANPP ranged from 2.96 to 18.98 Mg ha-1 across sites that have been recovering for 7 to 67 years. Fine litter production dominated ANPP, and increased with forest age but not annual rainfall. By contrast, woody stem growth did not vary among forests that differed in age, but increased as a function of annual rainfall. These results differed by forest type. Lowland oak forests on low fertility soil had the lowest productivity and responses to rainfall, whereas forests on the highest fertility soils showed large increases in woody production with rainfall. Consistent with our expectation, younger forests on the intermediate soil type had higher variability in ANPP than older forests, but this was not significant for forests on the poor or high fertility soils. Our results highlight several important findings: 1) different components of ANPP vary in their responses to inter-annual variation in rainfall, 2) forest responses to climatic variability depend on species composition, which varies consistently with soil type in this landscape.

  19. Inter-annual variation of threshold wind speed for dust emission in Mongolia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurosaki, Y.; Shinoda, M.; Sokolik, I.; Mikami, M.

    2009-04-01

    Threshold wind speed for dust emission, which is the minimum wind speed required to lift dust particles into the atmosphere, largely varies according to land-cover and land-use changes (LCLUC) (e.g., soil wetness, vegetation cover, snow cover, soil freeze, cultivation, grazing). This means that we can recognize the variation of threshold speed as an index of LCLUC. Moreover, well recognition of the relation between LCLUC and variations of threshold speed contributes improvements of numerical dust models, which have been utilized for the evaluation of the impact of aeolian dust on climate. The threshold speed has been parameterized on the basis of laboratory experiments using wind tunnels and in-situ observations. These experiments have a very big advantage in the direct measurement of threshold speed. However, a disadvantage is that laboratory experiments can be carried out only in ideal conditions and in-situ observations can be done in finite places and periods, although land surface conditions exhibit great spatial and temporal variabilities that cannot be covered by such experiments. This study will present inter-annual variations of threshold speed in Mongolia, where considerable inter-annual LCLUC has been reported due to climatic change such as drought and rapid temperature growth by global warming and human activities such as overgrazing. We estimated threshold speeds by the statistical method in Kurosaki and Mikami (2007) using synoptic meteorological data. So far we obtained a result that threshold speeds on April have gradually declined from 1970s to 2000s in southern Mongolia. We will discuss these variations with LCLUC. Kurosaki, Y., and M. Mikami (2007), Threshold wind speed for dust emission in east Asia and its seasonal variations, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D17202, doi:10.1029/2006JD007988.

  20. Changes in inter-annual variability of precipitation and temperature over Mexico and Central America from RegCM projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuentes-Franco, Ramon; Coppola, Erika; Tefera Diro, Gulilat; Giorgi, Filippo; Pavia, Edgar G.; Graef, Federico

    2013-04-01

    Future