Science.gov

Sample records for recurrent interannual climate

  1. Recurrent Interannual Climate Modes and Teleconnection Linking North America Warm Season Precipitation Anomalies to Asia Summer Monsoon Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K. M.; Weng, H. Y.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, we present results showing that summertime precipitation anomalies over North America and East Asia may be linked via pan-Pacific teleconnection patterns, which are components of two dominant recurring global climate modes. The first mode (Mode-1) features an inverse relationship between rainfall anomaly over the US Midwest/central to the eastern/southeastern regions, coupled to a mid-tropospheric high-low pressure system over the northwest and southeast of the US, which regulates low level moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico to the Midwest. The regional circulation pattern appears to be a part of a global climate mode spanning Eurasia, the North Pacific, North America, and the Atlantic. This mode is associated with coherent fluctuations of jetstream variability over East Asia, and Eurasia, SST in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. While Mode-1 is moderately correlated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), it appears to be distinct from it, with strong influences from mid-latitude or possibly from higher latitude processes. Results show that Mode-1 not only has an outstanding contribution to the great flood of 1993, it has large contribution to the US precipitation anomalies in other years. Also noted is an apparent increase in influence of Mode-1 on US summertime precipitation in the last two decades since 1977.

  2. Cirrus feedback on interannual climate fluctuations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, C.; Dessler, A. E.; Zelinka, M. D.; Yang, P.; Wang, T.

    2014-12-01

    Cirrus clouds are not only important in determining the current climate but also play an important role in climate change and variability. Analysis of satellite observations shows that the amount and altitude of cirrus clouds (cloud optical depth < 3.6, cloud top pressure < 440 hPa) increase in response to interannual surface warming. Using cirrus cloud radiative kernels, the magnitude of the interannual cirrus feedback is estimated to be 0.20 ± 0.21 W/m2/°C, which represents an important component of the cloud feedback. Thus, cirrus clouds are likely to act as a positive feedback on interannual climate fluctuations, by reducing the Earth's ability to radiate longwave radiation to space in response to planetary surface warming. Most of the cirrus feedback comes from increasing cloud amount in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) and subtropical upper troposphere.

  3. Cirrus feedback on interannual climate fluctuations

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, C.; Dessler, A. E.; Zelinka, M. D.; Yang, P.; Wang, T.

    2014-12-28

    Cirrus clouds are not only important in determining the current climate, but also play an important role in climate change and variability. Analysis of satellite observations shows that the amount and altitude of cirrus clouds (optical depth <3.6, cloud top pressure <440 hPa) increase in response to inter-annual surface warming. Thus, cirrus clouds are likely to act as a positive feedback on short-term climate fluctuations, by reducing the planet’s ability to radiate longwave radiation to space in response to planetary surface warming. Using cirrus cloud radiative kernels, the magnitude of cirrus feedback is estimated to be 0.20±0.21W/m2/°C, which is comparable to the surface albedo feedback. Most of the cirrus feedback comes from increasing cloud amount in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) and subtropical upper troposphere.

  4. Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

  5. Communicating uncertainty in seasonal and interannual climate forecasts in Europe.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Andrea L; Dessai, Suraje; de Bruin, Wändi Bruine

    2015-11-28

    Across Europe, organizations in different sectors are sensitive to climate variability and change, at a range of temporal scales from the seasonal to the interannual to the multi-decadal. Climate forecast providers face the challenge of communicating the uncertainty inherent in these forecasts to these decision-makers in a way that is transparent, understandable and does not lead to a false sense of certainty. This article reports the findings of a user-needs survey, conducted with 50 representatives of organizations in Europe from a variety of sectors (e.g. water management, forestry, energy, tourism, health) interested in seasonal and interannual climate forecasts. We find that while many participating organizations perform their own 'in house' risk analysis most require some form of processing and interpretation by forecast providers. However, we also find that while users tend to perceive seasonal and interannual forecasts to be useful, they often find them difficult to understand, highlighting the need for communication formats suitable for both expert and non-expert users. In addition, our results show that people tend to prefer familiar formats for receiving information about uncertainty. The implications of these findings for both the providers and users of climate information are discussed.

  6. Communicating uncertainty in seasonal and interannual climate forecasts in Europe.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Andrea L; Dessai, Suraje; de Bruin, Wändi Bruine

    2015-11-28

    Across Europe, organizations in different sectors are sensitive to climate variability and change, at a range of temporal scales from the seasonal to the interannual to the multi-decadal. Climate forecast providers face the challenge of communicating the uncertainty inherent in these forecasts to these decision-makers in a way that is transparent, understandable and does not lead to a false sense of certainty. This article reports the findings of a user-needs survey, conducted with 50 representatives of organizations in Europe from a variety of sectors (e.g. water management, forestry, energy, tourism, health) interested in seasonal and interannual climate forecasts. We find that while many participating organizations perform their own 'in house' risk analysis most require some form of processing and interpretation by forecast providers. However, we also find that while users tend to perceive seasonal and interannual forecasts to be useful, they often find them difficult to understand, highlighting the need for communication formats suitable for both expert and non-expert users. In addition, our results show that people tend to prefer familiar formats for receiving information about uncertainty. The implications of these findings for both the providers and users of climate information are discussed. PMID:26460115

  7. Communicating uncertainty in seasonal and interannual climate forecasts in Europe

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, Andrea L.; Dessai, Suraje; de Bruin, Wändi Bruine

    2015-01-01

    Across Europe, organizations in different sectors are sensitive to climate variability and change, at a range of temporal scales from the seasonal to the interannual to the multi-decadal. Climate forecast providers face the challenge of communicating the uncertainty inherent in these forecasts to these decision-makers in a way that is transparent, understandable and does not lead to a false sense of certainty. This article reports the findings of a user-needs survey, conducted with 50 representatives of organizations in Europe from a variety of sectors (e.g. water management, forestry, energy, tourism, health) interested in seasonal and interannual climate forecasts. We find that while many participating organizations perform their own ‘in house’ risk analysis most require some form of processing and interpretation by forecast providers. However, we also find that while users tend to perceive seasonal and interannual forecasts to be useful, they often find them difficult to understand, highlighting the need for communication formats suitable for both expert and non-expert users. In addition, our results show that people tend to prefer familiar formats for receiving information about uncertainty. The implications of these findings for both the providers and users of climate information are discussed. PMID:26460115

  8. Response of closed basin lakes to interannual climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huybers, Kathleen; Rupper, Summer; Roe, Gerard H.

    2016-06-01

    Lakes are key indicators of a region's hydrological cycle, directly reflecting the basin-wide balance between precipitation and evaporation. Lake-level records are therefore valuable repositories of climate history. However, the interpretation of such records is not necessarily straightforward. Lakes act as integrators of the year-to-year fluctuations in precipitation and evaporation that occur even in a constant climate. Therefore lake levels can exhibit natural, unforced fluctuations that persist on timescales of decades or more. This behavior is important to account for when distinguishing between true climate change and interannual variability as the cause of past lake-level fluctuations. We demonstrate the operation of this general principle for the particular case-study of the Great Salt Lake, which has long historical lake-level and climatological records. We employ both full water-balance and linear models. Both models capture the timing and size of the lake's historical variations. We then model the lake's response to much longer synthetic time series of precipitation and evaporation calibrated to the observations, and compare the magnitude and frequency of the modeled response to the Great Salt Lake's historical record. We find that interannual climate variability alone can explain much of the decadal-to-centennial variations in the lake-level record. Further, analytic solutions to the linear model capture much of the full model's behavior, but fail to predict the most extreme lake-level variations. We then apply the models to other lake geometries, and evaluate how the timing and amplitude of a lake-level response differs with climatic and geometric setting. A lake's response to a true climatic shift can only be understood in the context of these expected persistent lake-level variations. On the basis of these results, we speculate that lake response to interannual climate variability may play an important part in explaining much of Holocene lake

  9. Seasonal and interannual variations of atmospheric CO2 and climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dettinger, M.D.; Ghil, M.

    1998-01-01

    Interannual variations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa are almost masked by the seasonal cycle and a strong trend; at the South Pole, the seasonal cycle is small and is almost lost in the trend and interannual variations. Singular-spectrum analysis (SSA) issued here to isolate and reconstruct interannual signals at both sites and to visualize recent decadal changes in the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle. Analysis of the Mauna Loa CO2 series illustrates a hastening of the CO2 seasonal cycle, a close temporal relation between Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean temperature trends and the amplitude of the seasonal CO2 cycle, and tentative ties between the latter and seasonality changes in temperature over the NH continents. Variations of the seasonal CO2 cycle at the South Pole differ from those at Mauna Loa: it is phase changes of the seasonal cycle at the South Pole, rather than amplitude changes, that parallel hemispheric and global temperature trends. The seasonal CO2 cycles exhibit earlier occurrences of the seasons by 7 days at Mauna Loa and 18 days at the South Pole. Interannual CO2 variations are shared at the two locations, appear to respond to tropical processes, and can be decomposed mostly into two periodicities, around (3 years)-1 and (4 years)-1, respectively. Joint SSA analyses of CO2 concentrations and tropical climate indices isolate a shared mode with a quasi-triennial (QT) period in which the CO2 and sea-surface temperature (SST) participation are in phase opposition. The other shared mode has a quasi-quadrennial (QQ) period and CO2 variations are in phase with the corresponding tropical SST variations throughout the tropics. Together these interannual modes exhibit a mean lag between tropical SSTs and CO2 variations of about 6-8 months, with SST leading. Analysis of the QT and QQ signals in global gridded SSTs, joint SSA of CO2 and ??13C isotopic ratios, and SSA of CO2 and NH-land temperatures indicate that the QT variations in

  10. Strong Seasonality and Interannual Recurrence in Marine Myovirus Communities

    PubMed Central

    Chow, C.-E. T.; Johannessen, T.; Fuhrman, J. A.; Thingstad, T. F.; Sandaa, R. A.

    2013-01-01

    The temporal community dynamics and persistence of different viral types in the marine environment are still mostly obscure. Polymorphism of the major capsid protein gene, g23, was used to investigate the community composition dynamics of T4-like myoviruses in a North Atlantic fjord for a period of 2 years. A total of 160 unique operational taxonomic units (OTUs) were identified by terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (TRFLP) of the gene g23. Three major community profiles were identified (winter-spring, summer, and autumn), which resulted in a clear seasonal succession pattern. These seasonal transitions were recurrent over the 2 years and significantly correlated with progression of seawater temperature, Synechococcus abundance, and turbidity. The appearance of the autumn viral communities was concomitant with the occurrence of prominent Synechococcus blooms. As a whole, we found a highly dynamic T4-like viral community with strong seasonality and recurrence patterns. These communities were unexpectedly dominated by a group of persistently abundant viruses. PMID:23913432

  11. Forcings and chaos in interannual to decadal climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Hansen, J.

    1997-12-31

    We investigate the roles of climate forcings and chaos in climate variability via a series of climate simulations for 1979-95 in which we add forcings one-by-one. Ensembles of simulations are carried out for a given forcing to allow study of predictability, chaos and significance. These experiments suggest that most interannual climate variability in the period 1979-95 at middle and high latitudes is chaotic, i.e., unforced. But observed SST anomalies account for much of the variability over land at low latitudes and a small portion of the variability at high latitudes. The radiative forcings, both natural and anthropogenic, leave clear signatures in the simulated climate change. Pinatubo aerosols warm the stratosphere and cool the surface globally, and in most places cause a tendency for regional surface cooling. Ozone depletion cools the lower stratosphere, troposphere and surface, steepening the temperature lapse rate in the troposphere. But the well-mixed anthropogenic greenhouse gases cause a surface warming which, over the 17 year time scale, more than offsets these cooling mechanisms. Observed stratospheric, tropospheric and surface temperatures reveal evidence of climate response to stratospheric aerosols, ozone depletion, and increasing greenhouse gases.

  12. Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of Mars Present Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

    1996-01-01

    This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. The focus of this JRI has been to investigate the nature of intraseasonal and interannual variability of Mars'present climate. We have applied a three-dimensional climate model based on the full hydrostatic primitive equations to determine the spatial, but primarily, the temporal structures of the planet's large-scale circulation as it evolves during a given seasonal advance, and, over multi-annual cycles. The particular climate model applies simplified physical parameterizations and is computationally efficient. It could thus easily be integrated in a perpetual season or advancing season configuration, as well as over many Mars years. We have assessed both high and low-frequency components of the circulation (i.e., motions having periods of Omicron(2-10 days) or greater than Omicron(10 days), respectively). Results from this investigation have explored the basic issue whether Mars' climate system is naturally 'chaotic' associated with nonlinear interactions of the large-scale circulation-regardless of any allowance for year-to-year variations in external forcing mechanisms. Titles of papers presented at scientific conferences and a manuscript to be submitted to the scientific literature are provided. An overview of a areas for further investigation is also presented.

  13. Impacts of Interannual Climate Variability on Agricultural and Marine Ecosystems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cane, M. A.; Zebiak, S.; Kaplan, A.; Chen, D.

    2001-01-01

    The El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of global interannual climate variability, and seems to be the only mode for which current prediction methods are more skillful than climatology or persistence. The Zebiak and Cane intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model has been in use for ENSO prediction for more than a decade, with notable success. However, the sole dependence of its original initialization scheme and the improved initialization on wind fields derived from merchant ship observations proved to be a liability during 1997/1998 El Nino event: the deficiencies of wind observations prevented the oceanic component of the model from reaching the realistic state during the year prior to the event, and the forecast failed. Our work on the project was concentrated on the use of satellite data for improving various stages of ENSO prediction technology: model initialization, bias correction, and data assimilation. Close collaboration with other teams of the IDS project was maintained throughout.

  14. Effects of interannual climate variability on tropical tree cover

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holmgren, Milena; Hirota, Marina; van Nes, Egbert H.; Scheffer, Marten

    2013-08-01

    Climatic warming is substantially intensifying the global water cycle and is projected to increase rainfall variability. Using satellite data, we show that higher climatic variability is associated with reduced tree cover in the wet tropics globally. In contrast, interannual variability in rainfall can have neutral or even positive effects on tree cover in the dry tropics. In South America, tree cover in dry lands is higher in areas with high year-to-year variability in rainfall. This is consistent with evidence from case studies suggesting that in these areas rare wet episodes are essential for opening windows of opportunity where massive tree recruitment can overwhelm disturbance effects, allowing the establishment of extensive woodlands. In Australia, wet extremes have similar effects, but the net effect of rainfall variability is overwhelmed by negative effects of extreme dry years. In Africa, effects of rainfall variability are neutral for dry lands. It is most likely that differences in herbivore communities and fire regimes contribute to regulating tree expansion during wet extremes. Our results illustrate that increasing climatic variability may affect ecosystem services in contrasting, and sometimes surprising, ways. Expansion of dry tropical tree cover during extreme wet events may decrease grassland productivity but enhance carbon sequestration, soil nutrient retention and biodiversity.

  15. Forcings and chaos in interannual to decadal climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Ruedy, R.; Lacis, A.; Asamoah, K.; Beckford, K.; Borenstein, S.; Brown, E.; Cairns, B.; Carlson, B.; Curran, B.; de Castro, S.; Druyan, L.; Etwarrow, P.; Ferede, T.; Fox, M.; Gaffen, D.; Glascoe, J.; Gordon, H.; Hollandsworth, S.; Jiang, X.; Johnson, C.; Lawrence, N.; Lean, J.; Lerner, J.; Lo, K.; Logan, J.; Luckett, A.; McCormick, M. P.; McPeters, R.; Miller, R.; Minnis, P.; Ramberran, I.; Russell, G.; Russell, P.; Stone, P.; Tegen, I.; Thomas, S.; Thomason, L.; Thompson, A.; Wilder, J.; Willson, R.; Zawodny, J.

    1997-11-01

    We investigate the roles of climate forcings and chaos (unforced variability) in climate change via ensembles of climate simulations in which we add forcings one by one. The experiments suggest that most interannual climate variability in the period 1979-1996 at middle and high latitudes is chaotic. But observed SST anomalies, which themselves are partly forced and partly chaotic, account for much of the climate variability at low latitudes and a small portion of the variability at high latitudes. Both a natural radiative forcing (volcanic aerosols) and an anthropogenic forcing (ozone depletion) leave clear signatures in the simulated climate change that are identified in observations. Pinatubo aerosols warm the stratosphere and cool the surface globally, causing a tendency for regional surface cooling. Ozone depletion cools the lower stratosphere, troposphere and surface, steepening the temperature lapse rate in the troposphere. Solar irradiance effects are small, but our model is inadequate to fully explore this forcing. Well-mixed anthropogenic greenhouse gases cause a large surface wanning that, over the 17 years, approximately offsets cooling by the other three mechanisms. Thus the net calculated effect of all measured radiative forcings is approximately zero surface temperature trend and zero heat storage in the ocean for the period 1979-1996. Finally, in addition to the four measured radiative forcings, we add an initial (1979) disequilibrium forcing of +0.65 W/m2. This forcing yields a global surface warming of about 0.2°C over 1979-1996, close to observations, and measurable heat storage in the ocean. We argue that the results represent evidence of a planetary radiative imbalance of at least 0.5° W/m2; this disequilibrium presumably represents unrealized wanning due to changes of atmospheric composition prior to 1979. One implication of the disequilibrium forcing is an expectation of new record global temperatures in the next few years. The best

  16. Interannual climate variability and snowpack in the western United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cayan, Daniel R.

    1996-01-01

    An important part of the water supply in the western United States is derived from runoff fed by mountain snowmelt Snow accumulation responds to both precipitation and temperature variations, and forms an interesting climatic index, since it integrates these influences over the entire late fall-spring period. Here, effects of cool season climate variability upon snow water equivalent (SWE) over the western part of the conterminous United States are examined. The focus is on measurements on/and 1 April, when snow accumulation is typically greatest. The primary data, from a network of mountainous snow courses, provides a good description of interannual fluctuations in snow accumulations, since many snow courses have records of five decades or more. For any given year, the spring SWE anomaly at a particular snow course is likely to be 25%–60% of its long-term average. Five separate regions of anomalous SWE variability are distinguished, using a rotated principal components analysis. Although effects vary with region and with elevation, in general, the anomalous winter precipitation has the strongest influence on spring SWE fluctuations. Anomalous temperature has a weaker effect overall, but it has great influence in lower elevations such as in the coastal Northwest, and during spring in higher elevations. The regional snow anomaly patterns are associated with precipitation and temperature anomalies in winter and early spring. Patterns of the precipitation, temperature, and snow anomalies extend over broad regional areas, much larger than individual watersheds. These surface anomalies are organized by the atmospheric circulation, with primary anomaly centers over the North Pacific Ocean as well as over western North America. For most of the regions, anomalously low SWE is associated with a winter circulation resembling the PNA pattern. With a strong low in the central North Pacific and high pressure over the Pacific Northwest, this pattern diverts North Pacific

  17. Application of Infrared Hyperspectral Sounder Data to Climate Research: Interannual Variability and climate trend evaluation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aumann, H. H.; Gregorich, D. T.

    2007-12-01

    Satellite measurements of the spectrally resolved upwelling infrared radiances have a unique role in the observation of climate and climate change: They give direct insight into the way the Earth Climate System responds to periodic and long term changes in forcing with changes in surface and atmospheric temperatures and changes in large scale atmospheric circulation patterns. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), the first in a series of hyper-spectral polar orbiting sounders, was launch on the EOS Aqua into a 1:30 pm polar orbit at 705 km altitude in May 2002, with an anticipated lifetime of 12 years. The Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) was launched in October 2006 into a 9:30 AM orbit, to be followed by the Crosstrack InfraRed Sounder (CRIS) in a 2 PM orbit in 2010. The AIRS radiometric stability since 2002 has been verified at the better than 0.01 K/year level. We report on observations of the oceans between 30S and 30N. The 0.05 K/year trend in co2 sensitive channels due to the 2 ppmv/year increase in the co2 column abundance is readily detectable and statistically reliable. The AIRS data show very consistent seasonal modulations of key surface, cloud, water vapor and atmospheric temperatures. After removing the seasonal variation, the anomaly shows interannual rms variability in the monthly means larger than 0.1 K. The rms variability in the monthly means in the mid- tropospheric temperature with peak excursions as large as 0.6 K are observed by the AIRS 2388 cm-1 channel and AMSU channel 5 at 57 GHz. The interannual variability is not obviously correlated with the Multivariate Enso Index (MEI). This variability places limits on the length of time required to measure global warming trends at the 0.1 K/decade level. These limits exceed the expected 12 year lifetime of AIRS and need to be taken into account in the design of space missions and instruments to measure climate change.

  18. What drives interannual variability of hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay: Climate forcing versus nutrient loading?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Ming; Lee, Younjoo J.; Testa, Jeremy M.; Li, Yun; Ni, Wenfei; Kemp, W. Michael; Di Toro, Dominic M.

    2016-03-01

    Oxygen depletion in estuaries is a worldwide problem with detrimental effects on many organisms. Although nutrient loading has been stabilized for a number of these systems, seasonal hypoxia persists and displays large year-to-year variations, with larger hypoxic volumes in wetter years and smaller hypoxic volumes in drier years. Data analysis points to climate as a driver of interannual hypoxia variability, but nutrient inputs covary with freshwater flow. Here we report an oxygen budget analysis of Chesapeake Bay to quantify relative contributions of physical and biogeochemical processes. Vertical diffusive flux declines with river discharge, whereas longitudinal advective flux increases with river discharge, such that their total supply of oxygen to bottom water is relatively unchanged. However, water column respiration exhibits large interannual fluctuations and is correlated with primary production and hypoxic volume. Hence, the model results suggest that nutrient loading is the main mechanism driving interannual hypoxia variability in Chesapeake Bay.

  19. Tropical interannual variability in a global coupled GCM: Sensitivity to mean climate state

    SciTech Connect

    Moore, A.M.

    1995-04-01

    A global coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice general circulation model is used to study interannual variability in the Tropics. Flux correction is used to control the mean climate of the coupled system, and in one configuration of the coupled model, interannual variability in the tropical Pacific is dominated by westward moving anomalies. Through a series of experiments in which the equatorial ocean wave speeds and ocean-atmosphere coupling strength are varied, it is demonstrated that these westward moving disturbances are probably some manifestation of what Neelin describes as an {open_quotes}SST mode.{close_quotes} By modifying the flux correction procedure, the mean climate of the coupled model can be changed. A fairly modest change in the mean climate is all that is required to excite eastward moving anomalies in place of the westward moving SST modes found previously. The apparent sensitivity of the nature of tropical interannual variability to the mean climate state in a coupled general circulation model such as that used here suggests that caution is advisable if we try to use such models to answer questions relating to changes in ENSO-like variability associated with global climate change. 41 refs., 23 figs., 1 tab.

  20. Australian Tropical Cyclone Activity: Interannual Prediction and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicholls, N.

    2014-12-01

    It is 35 years since it was first demonstrated that interannual variations in seasonal Australian region tropical cyclone (TC) activity could be predicted using simple indices of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). That demonstration (Nicholls, 1979), which was surprising and unexpected at the time, relied on only 25 years of data (1950-1975), but its later confirmation eventually led to the introduction of operational seasonal tropical cyclone activity. It is worth examining how well the ENSO-TC relationship has performed, over the period since 1975. Changes in observational technology, and even how a tropical cyclone is defined, have affected the empirical relationships between ENSO and seasonal activity, and ways to overcome this in forecasting seasonal activity will be discussed. Such changes also complicate the investigation of long-term trends in cyclone activity. The early work linked cyclone activity to local sea surface temperature thereby leading to the expectation that global warming would result in an increase in cyclone activity. But studies in the 1990s (eg., Nicholls et al., 1998) suggested that such an increase in activity was not occurring, neither in the Australian region nor elsewhere. Trends in Australian tropical cyclone activity will be discussed, and the confounding influence of factors such as changes in observational technologies will be examined. Nicholls, N. 1979. A possible method for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region. Mon. Weath. Rev., 107, 1221-1224 Nicholls, N., Landsea, C., and Gill, J., 1998. Recent trends in Australian region tropical cyclone activity. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 65, 197-205.

  1. Seasonal divergence in the interannual responses of Northern Hemisphere vegetation activity to variations in diurnal climate

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Xiuchen; Liu, Hongyan; Li, Xiaoyan; Liang, Eryuan; Beck, Pieter S. A.; Huang, Yongmei

    2016-01-01

    Seasonal asymmetry in the interannual variations in the daytime and nighttime climate in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is well documented, but its consequences for vegetation activity remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate the interannual responses of vegetation activity to variations of seasonal mean daytime and nighttime climate in NH (>30 °N) during the past decades using remote sensing retrievals, FLUXNET and tree ring data. Despite a generally significant and positive response of vegetation activity to seasonal mean maximum temperature () in ~22–25% of the boreal (>50 °N) NH between spring and autumn, spring-summer progressive water limitations appear to decouple vegetation activity from the mean summer , particularly in climate zones with dry summers. Drought alleviation during autumn results in vegetation recovery from the marked warming-induced drought limitations observed in spring and summer across 24–26% of the temperate NH. Vegetation activity exhibits a pervasively negative correlation with the autumn mean minimum temperature, which is in contrast to the ambiguous patterns observed in spring and summer. Our findings provide new insights into how seasonal asymmetry in the interannual variations in the mean daytime and nighttime climate interacts with water limitations to produce spatiotemporally variable responses of vegetation growth. PMID:26751166

  2. Seasonal divergence in the interannual responses of Northern Hemisphere vegetation activity to variations in diurnal climate.

    PubMed

    Wu, Xiuchen; Liu, Hongyan; Li, Xiaoyan; Liang, Eryuan; Beck, Pieter S A; Huang, Yongmei

    2016-01-11

    Seasonal asymmetry in the interannual variations in the daytime and nighttime climate in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is well documented, but its consequences for vegetation activity remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate the interannual responses of vegetation activity to variations of seasonal mean daytime and nighttime climate in NH (>30 °N) during the past decades using remote sensing retrievals, FLUXNET and tree ring data. Despite a generally significant and positive response of vegetation activity to seasonal mean maximum temperature (Tmax) in ~22-25% of the boreal (>50 °N) NH between spring and autumn, spring-summer progressive water limitations appear to decouple vegetation activity from the mean summer Tmax, particularly in climate zones with dry summers. Drought alleviation during autumn results in vegetation recovery from the marked warming-induced drought limitations observed in spring and summer across 24-26% of the temperate NH. Vegetation activity exhibits a pervasively negative correlation with the autumn mean minimum temperature, which is in contrast to the ambiguous patterns observed in spring and summer. Our findings provide new insights into how seasonal asymmetry in the interannual variations in the mean daytime and nighttime climate interacts with water limitations to produce spatiotemporally variable responses of vegetation growth.

  3. Glacial/interglacial climate controls on east African interannual rainfall variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Timmermann, A.; Wolff, C.; Haug, G. H.; Sinninghe Damsté, J. S.; Brauer, A.; Sigman, D. M.; Cane, M. A.; Verschuren, D.

    2011-12-01

    Interannual rainfall variations in equatorial East Africa are tightly linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with more rain and flooding during El Niño and droughts in La Niña years, both having severe impacts on water stress and food security. Here we report evidence from an annually laminated lake-sediment record from southeastern Kenya for inter-annual to centennial-scale changes in ENSO-related rainfall variability during the last three millennia, abrupt changes in variability between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, and an overall reduction in East African rainfall and its variability during the Last Glacial period. A suite of CCSM3 climate model experiments for LGM, present-day and future CO2-doubling conditions supports forward extrapolations from these lake-sediment data that future Indian Ocean warming will intensify East Africa's hydrological cycle during the short rainy season in September to November.

  4. Patterns of interannual climate variability in large marine ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soares, Helena Cachanhuk; Gherardi, Douglas Francisco Marcolino; Pezzi, Luciano Ponzi; Kayano, Mary Toshie; Paes, Eduardo Tavares

    2014-06-01

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the vulnerability of the Brazilian and western African Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs) to local and remote forcing, including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) regime shift. The analyses are based on the total and partial correlation between climate indices (Niño3, tropical South Atlantic (TSA), tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and Antarctic oscillation (AAO) and oceanic and atmospheric variables (sea surface temperature (SST), wind stress, Ekman transport, sea level pressure and outgoing longwave radiation). Differences in the correlation fields between the cold and warm PDO indicate that this mode exerts a significant impact on the thermodynamic balance of the ocean-atmosphere system on the South Atlantic ocean, mainly in the South Brazil and Benguela LMEs. The PDO regime shift also resulted in an increase in the spatial variability of SST and wind stress anomalies, mainly along the western African LMEs. Another important finding is the strong AAO influence on the SST anomalies (SSTA) in the South Brazil LME. It is also striking that TSA modulates the relation between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and SSTA, by reducing the influence of ENSO on SSTA during the warm PDO period in the North and East Brazil LMEs and in the Guinea Current LME. The relation between AAO and SSTA on the tropical area is also influenced by the TSA. The results shown here give a clear indication that future ecosystem-based management actions aimed at the conservation of marine resources under climate change need to consider the high complexity of basin-scale interactions between local and remote climate forcings, including their effects on the ocean-atmosphere system of the South Atlantic ocean.

  5. The timing and magnitude of lake-level variability, in response to interannual climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huybers, K. M.; Rupper, S.; Roe, G.

    2013-12-01

    Some of the primary uncertainties and most critical consequences of both past and future climate change concern Earth's hydrological cycle. Lakes are key indicators of a region's hydrological cycle, directly reflecting the basin-wide balance between evaporation and precipitation. Lake-level records can therefore hold valuable information about the history of these climate variables. However, the interpretation of such records is not necessarily straightforward; because lakes integrate year-to-year climate fluctuations they will exhibit persistent fluctuations on timescales of decades or more. Any system with 'memory' (i.e., inertia, or a dynamic response time) will produce similar behavior. This inertia can make it difficult to distinguish lake-level fluctuations in response to stochastic climate forcing from a true shift in the climate -- a change in the mean or standard deviation of one or several climatic variables. The size and shape of a lake determines the response time to both stochastic forcing and climatic change, meaning that each individual lake will respond with a unique timescale and magnitude. We develop a general lake-level model to constrain a lake's response to interannual climate fluctuations. Because of its long historical lake-level and climatological records, we use the Great Salt Lake as a case-study for this work. We use mass-balance models to track the lake's response to synthetic, random time series of precipitation and evaporation, then compare the magnitude and frequency of our model's response to the historical record of the Great Salt Lake's rise and fall. We then compare simplified geometric representations of several lakes to illustrate how the timing and amplitude of a lake's response differs under unique climatic and geometric scenarios. We find that interannual climate variability alone can explain much of the decadal-centennial variations in the lake-level record. It is only after removing this background variability that a lake

  6. Inter-annual growth of Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus, L.) in relation to climate variation

    PubMed Central

    Kristensen, David M; Jørgensen, Thomas R; Larsen, Rasmus K; Forchhammer, Mads C; Christoffersen, Kirsten S

    2006-01-01

    Background Major changes in climate have been observed in the Arctic and climate models predict further amplification of the enhanced greenhouse effect at high-latitudes leading to increased warming. We propose that warming in the Arctic may affect the annual growth conditions of the cold adapted Arctic charr and that such effects can already be detected retrospectrally using otolith data. Results Inter-annual growth of the circumpolar Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus, L.) was analysed in relation to climatic changes observed in the Arctic during the last two decades. Arctic charr were sampled from six locations at Qeqertarsuaq in West Greenland, where climate data have been recorded since 1990. Two fish populations met the criteria of homogeny and, consequently, only these were used in further analyses. The results demonstrate a complex coupling between annual growth rates and fluctuations in annual mean temperatures and precipitation. Significant changes in temporal patterns of growth were observed between cohorts of 1990 and 2004. Conclusion Differences in pattern of growth appear to be a consequence of climatic changes over the last two decades and we thereby conclude that climatic affects short term and inter-annual growth as well as influencing long term shifts in age-specific growth patterns in population of Arctic charr. PMID:16934162

  7. Climatic regulation of seasonal and inter-annual variability in net ecosystem exchange of CO2 on rangelands

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) from terrestrial ecosystems varies seasonally and inter-annually because of temporal variation in climate. If we are predict climate-caused variation in NEE, we must understand how climatic variation influences NEE and its components, CO2 uptake and CO2 loss. ...

  8. Adaptation to Interannual and Interdecadal Climate Variability in Agricultural Production Systems of the Argentine Pampas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Podestá, G. P.; Bert, F.; Weber, E.; Laciana, C.; Rajagopalan, B.; Letson, D.

    2007-05-01

    Agricultural ecosystems play a central role in world food production and food security, and involve one of the most climate-sensitive sectors of society-agriculture. We focus on crop production in the Argentine Pampas, one of the world's major agricultural regions. Climate of the Pampas shows marked variability at both interannual and decadal time scales. We explored the scope for adaptive management in response to climate information on interannual scales. We show that different assumptions about what decision makers are trying to achieve (i.e., their objective functions) may change what actions are considered as "optimal" for a given climate context. Optimal actions also were used to estimate the economic value of forecasts of an ENSO phase. Decision constraints (e.g., crop rotations) have critical influence on value of the forecasting system. Gaps in knowledge or misconceptions about climate variability were identified in open-ended "mental model" interviews. Results were used to design educational interventions. A marked increase in precipitation since the 1970s, together with new production technologies, led to major changes in land use patterns in the Pampas. Continuous cropping has widely replaced agriculture-pasture rotations. Nevertheless, production systems that evolved partly in response to increased rainfall may not be viable if climate reverts to a drier epoch. We use historical data to define a range of plausible climate trajectories 20-30 years hence. Regional scenarios are downscaled using semi-parametric weather generators to produce multiple realizations of daily weather consistent with decadal scenarios. Finally, we use the synthetic climate, crop growth models, and realistic models of decision-making under risk to compute risk metrics (e.g., probability of yields or profits being below a threshold). Climatically optimal and marginal locations show differential responses: probabilities of negative economic results are much higher in currently

  9. Formation mechanism for the amplitude of interannual climate variability in subtropical northern hemisphere: relative contributions from the zonal asymmetric mean state and the interannual variability of SST

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Chao; Lin, Ailan; Gu, Dejun; Li, Chunhui; Zheng, Bin

    2016-04-01

    The Amplitude Interannual climate Variability (AIV) differs among the subtropical northern hemisphere, and the Western North Pacific (WNP) was claimed to exhibit the largest AIV. The robustness of the AIV pattern is investigated in this study with different atmospheric variables from multiple datasets. As consistently shown by the interannual variance patterns of precipitation and circulation, the AIV over subtropical northern hemisphere closely follows the mean state of precipitation, where higher (lower) AIV is located at moister (drier) regions. The largest AIV is seen over the broad area from South Asia to WNP, followed by a secondary local maximum over the Gulf of Mexico. To further investigate the formation mechanism for the AIV pattern, numerical simulations are performed by Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4). The zonal asymmetry of AIV is reduced if the interannual SST variability is removed, and it almost disappears if the zonal asymmetry of SST mean state is removed. The results suggest that the zonal asymmetric AIV pattern primarily originates from the zonal asymmetric SST mean state, and it is amplified by the interannual SST variability. The atmospheric convection-circulation feedback plays a key role in connecting the AIV with the mean state precipitation. In both observation and CAM4 simulations, stronger (weaker) convection-circulation feedback is seen in moister (drier) regions. By modulating the mean state precipitation and the associated intensity of convection-circulation feedback, the zonal asymmetric SST mean state accounts for the zonal asymmetry of AIV in the subtropical northern hemisphere.

  10. Determinability of inter-annual global and regional climatic changes of the earth radiation budget

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ardanuy, P. E.

    1983-01-01

    The degradation characteristics of Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) experiments are examined with reference to the results of recent investigations into the calibration adjustments of the Wide Field of View channels on board the Nimbus 6 and 7 ERB experiments. The mechanisms of degradation are discussed, and changes in the transmissive and reflective properties of radiometers affecting their sensitivities and calibrations are estimated. It is emphasized that in order to observe interannual climate change on a global or a regional scale, calibration adjustments are a necessity.

  11. Aerosol-climate interactions over southern Africa: the ENSO signal and interannual variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tummon, Fiona

    2010-05-01

    Southern Africa is a region that experiences high interannual climatic variability. It is also a region that, in general is poorly developed, has a high population growth rate and is at times politically unstable. As a whole, the region is extremely vulnerable to climatic changes, with a large proportion of the population depending on rain-fed agriculture as a source of income and subsistence. It is well known that the El-Nino/La-Nina oscillation contributes significantly to the climate variability over much of southern Africa; with El-Nino years generally being dry and warm in the southeastern parts and unusually wet in the eastern equatorial regions, whilst La-Nina years are generally wet and cool in the southeast, but dry in the eastern tropics. This in turn effects vegetation growth, and as a result the extent of biomass burning in the following dry season; with above-average wet seasons leading to increased burning, and drier than average seasons being followed by less extensive burning. The savannas of Africa experience some of the most extensive burning in the world, and contribute a very significant portion of the aerosol loading over southern Africa during the dry austral winter season, from June through October. At present, however, the climatic impact of aerosols over southern Africa is poorly understood, particularly in terms of the interannual variability of these impacts. The regional climate model RegCM3 is used to investigate the climatic impacts of the aerosol burden over southern African further, with particular focus on interannual variability and the role of ENSO. Preliminary results indicate that the impacts of the direct and semi-direct aerosol-effects on regional temperature, precipitation and circulation patterns vary between dry (El-Nino) and wet (La-Nina) years. There is a strong seasonality to these effects, with significant impacts occurring only during the austral winter, when biomass burning peaks throughout the southern Africa

  12. Structure, inter-annual recurrence, and global-scale connectivity of airborne microbial communities.

    PubMed

    Barberán, Albert; Henley, Jessica; Fierer, Noah; Casamayor, Emilio O

    2014-07-15

    Dust coming from the large deserts on Earth, such as the Sahara, can travel long distances and be dispersed over thousands of square kilometers. Remote dust deposition rates are increasing as a consequence of global change and may represent a mechanism for intercontinental microbial dispersal. Remote oligotrophic alpine lakes are particularly sensitive to dust inputs and can serve as sentinels of airborne microbial transport and the ecological consequences of accelerated intercontinental microbial migration. In this study, we applied high-throughput sequencing techniques (16S rRNA amplicon pyrosequencing) to characterize the microbial communities of atmospheric deposition collected in the Central Pyrenees (NE Spain) along three years. Additionally, bacteria from soils in Mauritania and from the air-water interface of high altitude Pyrenean lakes were also examined. Communities in aerosol deposition varied in time with a strong seasonal component of interannual similarity. Communities from the same season tended to resemble more each other than those from different seasons. Samples from disparate dates, in turn, slightly tended to have more dissimilar microbial assemblages (i.e., temporal distance decay), overall suggesting that atmospheric deposition may influence sink habitats in a temporally predictable manner. The three habitats examined (soil, deposition, and air-water interface) harbored distinct microbial communities, although airborne samples collected in the Pyrenees during Saharan dust outbreaks were closer to Mauritian soil samples than those collected during no Saharan dust episodes. The three habitats shared c.a. 1.4% of the total number of microbial sequences in the dataset. Such successful immigrants were spread in different bacterial classes. Overall, this study suggests that local and regional features may generate global trends in the dynamics and distribution of airborne microbial assemblages, and that the diversity of viable cells in the high

  13. Effect of interannual climate variability on carbon storage in Amazonian ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tian, H.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; McGuire, David A.; Helfrich, J. V. K.; Moore, B.; Vorosmarty, C.J.

    1998-01-01

    The Amazon Basin contains almost one-half of the world's undisturbed tropical evergreen forest as well as large areas of tropical savanna. The forests account for about 10 per cent of the world's terrestrial primary productivity and for a similar fraction of the carbon stored in land ecosystems, and short-term field measurements suggest that these ecosystems are globally important carbon sinks. But tropical land ecosystems have experienced substantial interannual climate variability owing to frequent El Nino episodes in recent decades. Of particular importance to climate change policy is how such climate variations, coupled with increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration, affect terrestrial carbon storage. Previous model analyses have demonstrated the importance of temperature in controlling carbon storage. Here we use a transient process-based biogeochemical model of terrestrial ecosystems to investigate interannual variations of carbon storage in undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems in response to climate variability and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration during the period 1980 to 1994. In El Nino years, which bring hot, dry weather to much of the Amazon region, the ecosystems act as a source of carbon to the atmosphere (up to 0.2 petagrams of carbon in 1987 and 1992). In other years, these ecosystems act as a carbon sink (up to 0.7 Pg C in 1981 and 1993). These fluxes are large; they compare to a 0.3 Pg C per year source to the atmosphere associated with deforestation in the Amazon Basin in the early 1990s. Soil moisture, which is affected by both precipitation and temperature, and which affects both plant and soil processes, appears to be an important control on carbon storage.

  14. Interannual to millennial variability of climate extreme indices over Europe: evidence from high resolution proxy data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Lohmann, Gerrit

    2016-04-01

    Interannual to millennial time scale variability of precipitation (R20mm, Rx5day, R95pTOT), cold (TN10p, CSDI and CFD), heat (TX90p and WSDI) and drought (CDD) extreme climate indices is investigated using long-term observational and proxy records. We detect significant correlations between these indices and various high resolution proxy records like lake sediments from southern Germany, stable oxygen isotopes from Greenland ice cores and stable oxygen isotopes from Red Sea corals during observational period. The analysis of long-term reanalysis data in combination with extreme climate indices and proxy data reveals that distinct atmospheric circulation patterns explain most of the identified relationships. In particular, we show that a sediment record from southern Germany (lake Ammersee), which records flood frequency of River Ammer during the last 5500 years, is related to a wave-train atmospheric circulation pattern with a pronounced negative center over western Europe. We show that high frequency of River Ammer floods is related not only to high frequency of extreme precipitation events (R95p) in the Ammer region but also with significant positive anomalies of various extreme temperature indices (TX90p and TXx) over northeastern Europe. Such extreme temperatures are forced by cloudiness anomaly pattern associated with flood related atmospheric circulation pattern. Based on this record we discuss possible interannual to millennial scale variations of extreme precipitation and temperature indices over Europe during the last 5500 years. Coherent variations of extreme precipitation and temperature indices over Europe and stable oxygen isotopes from Greenland ice cores and northern Red Sea corals during observational period are related to atmospheric blocking variability in the North Atlantic region. Possible variations of climate extreme indices during different time slices of the Holocene period and their implications for future extreme climate variability are

  15. Interannual to multidecadal climate forcings on groundwater resources of the U.S. West Coast

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Velasco, Elzie M; Gurdak, Jason J.; Dickinson, Jesse; Ferre, T.P.A; Corona, Claudia

    2016-01-01

    Study regionThe U.S. West Coast, including the Pacific Northwest and California Coastal Basins aquifer systems.Study focusGroundwater response to interannual to multidecadal climate variability has important implications for security within the water–energy–food nexus. Here we use Singular Spectrum Analysis to quantify the teleconnections between AMO, PDO, ENSO, and PNA and precipitation and groundwater level fluctuations. The computer program DAMP was used to provide insight on the influence of soil texture, depth to water, and mean and period of a surface infiltration flux on the damping of climate signals in the vadose zone.New hydrological insights for the regionWe find that PDO, ENSO, and PNA have significant influence on precipitation and groundwater fluctuations across a north-south gradient of the West Coast, but the lower frequency climate modes (PDO) have a greater influence on hydrologic patterns than higher frequency climate modes (ENSO and PNA). Low frequency signals tend to be preserved better in groundwater fluctuations than high frequency signals, which is a function of the degree of damping of surface variable fluxes related to soil texture, depth to water, mean and period of the infiltration flux. The teleconnection patterns that exist in surface hydrologic processes are not necessarily the same as those preserved in subsurface processes, which are affected by damping of some climate variability signals within infiltrating water.

  16. Climate-driven interannual variability of water scarcity in food production: a global analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kummu, M.; Gerten, D.; Heinke, J.; Konzmann, M.; Varis, O.

    2013-06-01

    Interannual climatic and hydrologic variability has been substantial during the past decades in many regions. While climate variability and its impacts on precipitation and soil moisture have been rather intensively studied, less is known on its impacts on freshwater availability and further implications for global food production. In this paper we quantify effects of hydroclimatic variability on global "green" and "blue" water availability and demand in agriculture. Analysis is based on climate forcing data for the past 30 yr with demography, diet composition and land use fixed to constant reference conditions. We thus assess how observed interannual hydroclimatic variability impacts on the ability of food production units (FPUs) to produce a given diet for their inhabitants, here focused on a benchmark for hunger alleviation (3000 kilocalories per capita per day, with 80% vegetal food and 20% animal products). We applied the LPJmL vegetation and hydrology model to calculate spatially explicitly the variation in green-blue water availability and the water requirements to produce that very diet. An FPU was considered water scarce if its water availability was not sufficient to produce the diet (neglecting trade from elsewhere, i.e. assuming food self-sufficiency). We found that altogether 24% of the global population lives in areas under chronic scarcity (i.e. water is scarce every year) while an additional 19% live under occasional water scarcity (i.e. water is scarce in some years). Of these 2.6 billion people under some degree of scarcity, 55% would have to rely on international trade to reach the reference diet while for 24% domestic trade would be enough (assuming present cropland extent and management). For the remaining 21% of population under scarcity, local food storage and/or intermittent trade would be enough secure the reference diet over the occasional dry years.

  17. Climate-driven interannual variability of water scarcity in food production potential: a global analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kummu, M.; Gerten, D.; Heinke, J.; Konzmann, M.; Varis, O.

    2014-02-01

    Interannual climatic and hydrologic variability has been substantial during the past decades in many regions. While climate variability and its impacts on precipitation and soil moisture have been studied intensively, less is known on subsequent implications for global food production. In this paper we quantify effects of hydroclimatic variability on global "green" and "blue" water availability and demand in global agriculture, and thus complement former studies that have focused merely on long-term averages. Moreover, we assess some options to overcome chronic or sporadic water scarcity. The analysis is based on historical climate forcing data sets over the period 1977-2006, while demography, diet composition and land use are fixed to reference conditions (year 2000). In doing so, we isolate the effect of interannual hydroclimatic variability from other factors that drive food production. We analyse the potential of food production units (FPUs) to produce a reference diet for their inhabitants (3000 kcal cap-1 day-1, with 80% vegetal food and 20% animal products). We applied the LPJmL vegetation and hydrology model to calculate the variation in green-blue water availability and the water requirements to produce that very diet. An FPU was considered water scarce if its water availability was not sufficient to produce the diet (i.e. assuming food self-sufficiency to estimate dependency on trade from elsewhere). We found that 24% of the world's population lives in chronically water-scarce FPUs (i.e. water is scarce every year), while an additional 19% live under occasional water scarcity (water is scarce in some years). Among these 2.6 billion people altogether, 55% would have to rely on international trade to reach the reference diet, while for 24% domestic trade would be enough. For the remaining 21% of the population exposed to some degree of water scarcity, local food storage and/or intermittent trade would be enough to secure the reference diet over the

  18. Differences between local and remote interannual climate forcings acting on the Brazilian Large Marine Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soares, H. C.; Gherardi, D. F.; Pezzi, L. P.; Kayano, M. T.

    2013-05-01

    Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs) are units defined based on the differences in hydrographic regimes, bathymetry, productivity and trophycally dependent populations and were established for assessment and management of marine resources and control of degradation of the coastal areas around the world. Three LME are located in the Brazilian domain, the North, East and South LMEs. In this study the influence of interannual climate variations on Brazilian LMEs are investigated. The South Atlantic is subject to local climatic modes, such as the Interhemispheric Sea Surface Temperature (SST) gradient, represented by the Tropical South Atlantic (TSA) and Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) indices and Antarctic Oscillation mode, represented by Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) index. The remote forcings considered in this work are El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Total and partial correlation (95% significance) analyses of climate indices versus SST, wind stress, sea level pressure (SLP) and outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) were calculated. The data series used were detrended and filtered to retain the interannual (2 to 7 years) variability. Correlations were carried out separately for the cold (1948/1976) and warm PDO phase (1977/2008). Results point to higher correlations between wind stress anomaly, SLP anomaly, SST anomaly (SSTA) and the Niño 3 index for a large part of the South Atlantic during the PDO warm phase than in the cold phase. The North Brazil LME region is strongly influenced by El Niño, with a maximum positive correlation between SSTA and Niño 3 found with 7 months lag and a positive correlation between this index and wind stress with a maximum time lag of 2 months. The East LME unit appears to be influenced in a very different way in its southern and northern portion, suggesting that management actions for the adaptation or mitigation for possible climate variability changes needs to consider this difference. The AAO is

  19. Marine climate influences on interannual variability of tropical cyclones in the eastern Caribbean: 1979-2008

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jury, Mark R.

    2015-04-01

    Interannual variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the eastern Caribbean is studied using MIT-Hurdat fields during the July-October season from 1979 to 2008. TC intensity shows local climate sensitivity particularly for upper ocean currents, salinity and mixed-layer depth, and 200-850 mb wind shear. Remote influences from the Southern Oscillation, Saharan dust, and the South American monsoon are also identified as important. Ocean currents diminish along the coast of South America, so interbasin transfer between the North Brazil and Caribbean Currents declines in seasons of frequent and intense TCs. This is related to a dipole pattern in the sea surface height formed mainly by reduced trade wind upwelling northeast of Venezuela. A low-salinity plume from the Orinoco River spreads across the eastern Caribbean. It is the weaker currents and shallower mixed layer that conspire with surplus heat to build thermodynamic energy available for TC intensification.

  20. Interannual Variability of Tropical Precipitation: How Well Do Climate Models Agree With Current Satellite Estimates?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Marshall, Susan; Roads, John; Oglesby, Robert J.; Fitzjarrald, Dan; Goodman, H. Michael (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. Recent availability of the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) has further aided in narrowing uncertainties in rainfall over die tropics and subtropics. Although climate modeling efforts have long relied on space-based precipitation estimates for validation, we now are in a position to make more quantitative assessments of model performance, particularly in tropical regions. An integration of the CCM3 using observed SSTs as a lower boundary condition is used to examine how well this model responds to ENSO forcing in terms of anomalous precipitation. An integration of the NCEP spectral model used for the Reanalysis-H effort is also examined. This integration is run with specified SSTs, but with no data assimilation. Our analysis focuses on two aspects of inter-annual variability. First are the spatial anomalies that are indicative of dislocations in Hadley and Walker circulations. Second, we consider the ability of models to replicate observed increases in oceanic precipitation that are noted in satellite observations for large ENSO events. Finally, we consider a slab ocean version of the CCM3 model with prescribed ocean beat transports that mimic upwelling anomalies, but which still allows the surface energy balance to be predicted. This less restrictive experiment is used to understand why model experiments with specified SSTs seem to have noticeably less interannual variability in precipitation than do the satellite observations.

  1. Storm-tracks interannual variability and large-scale climate modes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

    2013-04-01

    In this study we focus on the interannual variability and observed changes in northern hemisphere mid-latitude storm-tracks and relate them to large scale atmospheric circulation variability modes. Extratropical storminess, cyclones dominant paths, frequency and intensity have long been the object of climatological studies. The analysis of storm characteristics and historical trends presented here is based on the cyclone detecting and tracking algorithm first developed for the Mediterranean region (Trigo et al. 1999) and recently extended to a larger Euro-Atlantic region (Trigo 2006). The objective methodology, which identifies and follows individual lows as minima in SLP fields, fulfilling a set of conditions regarding the central pressure and the pressure gradient, is applied to the northern hemisphere 6-hourly geopotential data at 1000 hPa from the 20th Century Reanalyses (20CRv2) project and from reanalyses datasets provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): ERA-40 and ERA Interim reanalyses. First, we assess the interannual variability and cyclone frequency trends for each of the datasets, for the 20th century and for the period between 1958 and 2002 using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 data. Results show that winter variability of storm paths, cyclone frequency and travel times is in agreement with the reported variability in a number of large-scale climate patterns (including the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic Pattern and the Scandinavian Pattern). In addition, three storm-track databases are built spanning the common available extended winter seasons from October 1979 to March 2002. Although relatively short, this common period allows a comparison of systems represented in reanalyses datasets with distinct horizontal resolutions. This exercise is mostly focused on the key areas of cyclogenesis and cyclolysis and main cyclone characteristics over the northern

  2. Interannual to Multidecadal Climate Variability and Groundwater Resources of the Western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gurdak, J. J.; Kuss, A. M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate variability and change have important implications for groundwater recharge, discharge, contaminant transport, and resource sustainability. Reliable predictions of groundwater sustainability due to climate change will require improved understanding of the effects of global scale atmosphere-ocean climate oscillations on interannual to multidecadal timescales. Climate variability on these timescales partially controls precipitation, air temperature, drought, evapotranspiration, streamflow, recharge, and mobilization of subsurface-chemical reservoirs. Climate variability can augment or diminish human stresses on groundwater, and the responses in storage can be dramatic when different climate cycles lie coincident in a positive or negative phase of variability. Thus, understanding climate variability has particular relevance for management decisions during drought and for water resources close to the limits of sustainability. Major findings will be presented from a national scale study of climate variability on recharge rates and groundwater levels, and will highlight regional aquifers of the western United States, including the Basin and Range (700,000 km2), Central Valley (52,000 km2), High Plains (450,000 km2), and Mississippi Embayment (181,000 km2) aquifer systems. Using singular spectrum analysis, the groundwater pumping signal was removed and natural variations were identified in groundwater levels as partially coincident with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2-6 year cycle), North Atlantic Oscillation (3-6 year cycle), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (10-25 year cycle), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (50-80 year cycle). The PDO was the most significant contributor to recharge and groundwater level fluctuations in most aquifers. In the Central Valley and the Basin and Range, the PDO contributes to the greatest amount of variance (ranging from 13.6-83%) in all precipitation and groundwater level time series, with moderate to strong

  3. The Role of Global Hydrologic Processes in Interannual and Long-Term Climate Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robertson, Franklin R.

    1997-01-01

    The earth's climate and its variability is linked inextricably with the presence of water on our planet. El Nino / Southern Oscillation-- the major mode of interannual variability-- is characterized by strong perturbations in oceanic evaporation, tropical rainfall, and radiation. On longer time scales, the major feedback mechanism in CO2-induced global warming is actually that due to increased water vapor holding capacity of the atmosphere. The global hydrologic cycle effects on climate are manifested through influence of cloud and water vapor on energy fluxes at the top of atmosphere and at the surface. Surface moisture anomalies retain the "memory" of past precipitation anomalies and subsequently alter the partitioning of latent and sensible heat fluxes at the surface. At the top of atmosphere, water vapor and cloud perturbations alter the net amount of radiation that the earth's climate system receives. These pervasive linkages between water, radiation, and surface processes present major complexities for observing and modeling climate variations. Major uncertainties in the observations include vertical structure of clouds and water vapor, surface energy balance, and transport of water and heat by wind fields. Modeling climate variability and change on a physical basis requires accurate by simplified submodels of radiation, cloud formation, radiative exchange, surface biophysics, and oceanic energy flux. In the past, we m safely say that being "data poor' has limited our depth of understanding and impeded model validation and improvement. Beginning with pre-EOS data sets, many of these barriers are being removed. EOS platforms with the suite of measurements dedicated to specific science questions are part of our most cost effective path to improved understanding and predictive capability. This talk will highlight some of the major questions confronting global hydrology and the prospects for significant progress afforded by EOS-era measurements.

  4. The spread amongst ENSEMBLES regional scenarios: regional climate models, driving general circulation models and interannual variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Déqué, M.; Somot, S.; Sanchez-Gomez, E.; Goodess, C. M.; Jacob, D.; Lenderink, G.; Christensen, O. B.

    2012-03-01

    Various combinations of thirteen regional climate models (RCM) and six general circulation models (GCM) were used in FP6-ENSEMBLES. The response to the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas concentration scenario over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2021-2050 and the 1961-1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance explained for temperature and precipitation changes over eight European sub-areas. Three sources of uncertainty can be evaluated from the ENSEMBLES database. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30) despite a non-negligible interannual variability. Regional model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Global model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs have been driven by different GCMs. Two methods are presented to fill the many empty cells of the ENSEMBLES RCM × GCM matrix. The first one is based on the same approach as in FP5-PRUDENCE. The second one uses the concept of weather regimes to attempt to separate the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The variance of the climate response is analyzed with respect to the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The two filling methods agree that the main contributor to the spread is the choice of the GCM, except for summer precipitation where the choice of the RCM dominates the uncertainty. Of course the implication of the GCM to the spread varies with the region, being maximum in the South-western part of Europe, whereas the continental parts are more sensitive to the choice of the RCM. The third cause of spread is systematically the interannual variability. The total uncertainty about temperature is not large enough to mask the 2021-2050 response which shows a similar pattern to the one obtained for 2071-2100 in PRUDENCE. The uncertainty

  5. Global analysis of climate-driven interannual variability of food production and related water scarcity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kummu, Matti; Gerten, Dieter; Heinke, Jens; Konzmann, Markus; Varis, Olli

    2014-05-01

    Interannual climatic and hydrologic variability has been substantial during the past decades in many regions. While climate variability and its impacts on precipitation and soil moisture have been studied intensively, less is known on subsequent implications for global food production. In this study we quantify effects of hydroclimatic variability on global "green" and "blue" water availability and demand in global agriculture, and thus complement former studies that have focused merely on long-term averages. We further quantify some options to overcome food deficit due to chronic or sporadic water scarcity. We found that 24% of the world's population lives in chronically water scare food production units (FPUs) (i.e. water is scarce every year), while an additional 19% live under occasional water scarcity (water is scarce in some years). Among these 2.6 billion people altogether, 55% would have to rely on international trade to reach the reference diet, while for 24% domestic trade would be enough. For the remaining 21% of population exposed to some degree of water scarcity, local food storage and/or intermittent trade would be enough to secure the reference diet over the occasional dry years. The analysis is based on historical climate forcing dataset over the period 1977-2007, while demography, diet composition and land use are fixed to reference conditions (year 2000). In so doing, we isolate the effect of interannual hydroclimatic variability from other factors that drive food production. We analyse the potential of FPUs to produce a reference diet for their inhabitants (3,000 kilocalories per capita per day, with 80% vegetal food and 20% animal products). The LPJmL vegetation and hydrology model was used to calculate spatially and explicitly the variation in food production, green-blue water availability and the water requirements to produce that very diet. An FPU was considered water scarce if its water availability was not sufficient to produce the diet (i

  6. Impacts of Arctic Climate Change on Tundra Fire Regimes at Interannual to Millennial Timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, F.; Young, A. M.; Chipman, M. L.; Duffy, P.; Higuera, P. E.

    2014-12-01

    Tundra burning is emerging as a key process in the rapidly changing Arctic, and knowledge of tundra fire-regime responses to climate change is essential for projecting Earth system dynamics. This presentation will focus on climate-fire relationships in the Arctic, spatiotemporal patterns of Holocene tundra burning, and the effects of tundra burning on carbon cycling. Analysis of historical records reveals that across the Arctic, tundra burning occurred primarily in areas where mean summer temperature exceeded 9 °C and total summer precipitation was below 115 mm. In Alaska, summer temperature and precipitation explain >90% of the interannual variability in tundra area burned from AD 1950-2009, with thresholds of 10.5 °C and 140 mm. These patterns imply tipping points in tundra fire-regime responses to climate change. The frequency of tundra fires has varied greatly across space and through time. Approximately 1.0% of the circum-Arctic tundra burned from AD 2002-2013, and 4.5% of the Alaskan tundra burned from AD 1950-2009. The latter encompassed ecoregions with fire rotation periods ranging from ~400 to 13,640 years. Charcoal analysis of lake sediments also shows that Arctic tundra can sustain a wide range of fire regimes. Fires were rare on the Alaskan North Slope throughout the Holocene, implying that the climate thresholds evident in the historical records have seldom been crossed. In contrast, in areas of NW Alaska, tundra has burned regularly at 100-250 year intervals during the late Holocene. Tundra burning may cause sudden releases of the enormous amount of Arctic soil C. Charcoal particles from recent burns yielded 14C ages of AD 1952-2006. Thus the C consumed in recent fires may recover through vegetation succession. However, our results suggest that in areas that have burned multiple times in recent decades, old soil C is vulnerable to future fires.

  7. Millennium-Scale Crossdating and Inter-Annual Climate Sensitivities of Standing California Redwoods

    PubMed Central

    Carroll, Allyson L.; Sillett, Stephen C.; Kramer, Russell D.

    2014-01-01

    Extremely decay-resistant wood and fire-resistant bark allow California’s redwoods to accumulate millennia of annual growth rings that can be useful in biological research. Whereas tree rings of Sequoiadendron giganteum (SEGI) helped formalize the study of dendrochronology and the principle of crossdating, those of Sequoia sempervirens (SESE) have proven much more difficult to decipher, greatly limiting dendroclimatic and other investigations of this species. We overcame these problems by climbing standing trees and coring trunks at multiple heights in 14 old-growth forest locations across California. Overall, we sampled 1,466 series with 483,712 annual rings from 120 trees and were able to crossdate 83% of SESE compared to 99% of SEGI rings. Standard and residual tree-ring chronologies spanning up to 1,685 years for SESE and 1,538 years for SEGI were created for each location to evaluate crossdating and to examine correlations between annual growth and climate. We used monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and drought severity as well as summer cloudiness to quantify potential drivers of inter-annual growth variation over century-long time series at each location. SESE chronologies exhibited a latitudinal gradient of climate sensitivities, contrasting cooler northern rainforests and warmer, drier southern forests. Radial growth increased with decreasing summer cloudiness in northern rainforests and a central SESE location. The strongest dendroclimatic relationship occurred in our southernmost SESE location, where radial growth correlated negatively with dry summer conditions and exhibited responses to historic fires. SEGI chronologies showed negative correlations with June temperature and positive correlations with previous October precipitation. More work is needed to understand quantitative relationships between SEGI radial growth and moisture availability, particularly snowmelt. Tree-ring chronologies developed here for both redwood species have

  8. Millennium-scale crossdating and inter-annual climate sensitivities of standing California redwoods.

    PubMed

    Carroll, Allyson L; Sillett, Stephen C; Kramer, Russell D

    2014-01-01

    Extremely decay-resistant wood and fire-resistant bark allow California's redwoods to accumulate millennia of annual growth rings that can be useful in biological research. Whereas tree rings of Sequoiadendron giganteum (SEGI) helped formalize the study of dendrochronology and the principle of crossdating, those of Sequoia sempervirens (SESE) have proven much more difficult to decipher, greatly limiting dendroclimatic and other investigations of this species. We overcame these problems by climbing standing trees and coring trunks at multiple heights in 14 old-growth forest locations across California. Overall, we sampled 1,466 series with 483,712 annual rings from 120 trees and were able to crossdate 83% of SESE compared to 99% of SEGI rings. Standard and residual tree-ring chronologies spanning up to 1,685 years for SESE and 1,538 years for SEGI were created for each location to evaluate crossdating and to examine correlations between annual growth and climate. We used monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and drought severity as well as summer cloudiness to quantify potential drivers of inter-annual growth variation over century-long time series at each location. SESE chronologies exhibited a latitudinal gradient of climate sensitivities, contrasting cooler northern rainforests and warmer, drier southern forests. Radial growth increased with decreasing summer cloudiness in northern rainforests and a central SESE location. The strongest dendroclimatic relationship occurred in our southernmost SESE location, where radial growth correlated negatively with dry summer conditions and exhibited responses to historic fires. SEGI chronologies showed negative correlations with June temperature and positive correlations with previous October precipitation. More work is needed to understand quantitative relationships between SEGI radial growth and moisture availability, particularly snowmelt. Tree-ring chronologies developed here for both redwood species have

  9. Millennium-scale crossdating and inter-annual climate sensitivities of standing California redwoods.

    PubMed

    Carroll, Allyson L; Sillett, Stephen C; Kramer, Russell D

    2014-01-01

    Extremely decay-resistant wood and fire-resistant bark allow California's redwoods to accumulate millennia of annual growth rings that can be useful in biological research. Whereas tree rings of Sequoiadendron giganteum (SEGI) helped formalize the study of dendrochronology and the principle of crossdating, those of Sequoia sempervirens (SESE) have proven much more difficult to decipher, greatly limiting dendroclimatic and other investigations of this species. We overcame these problems by climbing standing trees and coring trunks at multiple heights in 14 old-growth forest locations across California. Overall, we sampled 1,466 series with 483,712 annual rings from 120 trees and were able to crossdate 83% of SESE compared to 99% of SEGI rings. Standard and residual tree-ring chronologies spanning up to 1,685 years for SESE and 1,538 years for SEGI were created for each location to evaluate crossdating and to examine correlations between annual growth and climate. We used monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and drought severity as well as summer cloudiness to quantify potential drivers of inter-annual growth variation over century-long time series at each location. SESE chronologies exhibited a latitudinal gradient of climate sensitivities, contrasting cooler northern rainforests and warmer, drier southern forests. Radial growth increased with decreasing summer cloudiness in northern rainforests and a central SESE location. The strongest dendroclimatic relationship occurred in our southernmost SESE location, where radial growth correlated negatively with dry summer conditions and exhibited responses to historic fires. SEGI chronologies showed negative correlations with June temperature and positive correlations with previous October precipitation. More work is needed to understand quantitative relationships between SEGI radial growth and moisture availability, particularly snowmelt. Tree-ring chronologies developed here for both redwood species have

  10. Inter-annual Variability of Monsoon Low Pressure Systems in Reanalysis and Climate model Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Praveen, V.; Sandeep, S.; Ravindran, A. M.

    2014-12-01

    Monsoon Low Pressure Systems (LPS) play an important role in the Indian summer monsoon by bringing rainfall to the interior parts of Indian subcontinent. The detection and tracking of this weakly structured north north-west propagating system in reanalysis products and climate model simulations are challenging compared to the tropical and extra tropical cyclones. A robust method to objectively identify and track the LPS, which mimics the conventional LPS tracking technique, is presented. The algorithm showed its robustness in detecting and tracking LPS in ERA and MERRA reanalysis products. The algorithm fairly well captured inter-annual variability in ERA/MERRA LPSs against observations from Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). An analysis of the LPS in historical CMPI5 model simulation reveal, the models' skill in simulating a realistic mean monsoon precipitation and its relation to the LPS activity. Further, this inter-model variability in the LPS is found to be linked to the mid-tropospheric stability over the Bay of Bengal region.

  11. Interannual variation in climate-potential net primary productivity relationships in differing ecosystems of California

    SciTech Connect

    Koch, G.W.; Randerson, J.T. )

    1994-06-01

    The seasonality and interannual variation in potential net primary production (NPP) were examined in differing vegetation types in California over three years of contrasting precipitation using co-registered maps of climate, vegetation, and 1km biweekly NDVI derived from high resolution satellite AVHRR data. Differences in seasonality of the vegetation types (annual grassland, chamise chaparral, deciduous oak woodland, and evergreen oak) were clearly evident and corresponded well to patterns observed in field studies. In years and locations having high precipitation the annual peak in NDVI occurred later in all vegetation classes. The annual sum of biweekly NDVI was correlated with annual precipitation in all vegetation types, although the slopes and intercepts of the regressions differed among types. Annual grassland showed the largest increase in sumNDVI per unit increase in total precipitation and most of the variation in grassland sumNDVI was explained by variation in autumn precipitation. In general the ratio of sumNDVI to annual precipitation was dependent on the temporal distribution of precipitation with respect to the long-term average pattern. Published relationships between precipitation and NPP were used to develop equations relating annual NDVI sum to NPP.

  12. Inter-annual variability of evapotranspiration in two semiarid ecosystems with different climate patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Villarreal, S.; Vargas, R.; Yepez, E. A.; Smith, S. V.; Watts, C.; Rodriguez, J.; Garatuza, J.; Martinez, J.; Castro, A.; Lopez, E.

    2012-12-01

    One of the most important climatic characteristics in arid and semiarid environments is the amount and variability of precipitation. This characteristic is important because the variability, magnitude, and number of the precipitation pulses have differing influence on the evapotranspiration flux (ET). We demonstrated this by studying two different semiarid shrublands : one with cool and wet winters (El Mogor), and the other with wet and warm summers (Rayon). We were interested in: a) the behavior of evapotranspiration (ET) when the wet season is in phase with the highest values of net radiation (Rayon), and when these two variables were not in phase (El Mogor); and b) on the interannual transition between dry-wet and wet-dry season. We used six site-years of eddy covariance measurements of ET from 2008-2010 (i.e.,3 years of measurements per site). Preliminary results show that Rayon has a maximum ET during the wet season, while El Mogor has it during the wet-dry transition. We discuss that maximum ET is controlled by precipitation and net radiation, but volumetric water content is a strong environmental control on ET especially during the transition seasons.

  13. Diagnostics of Interannual-to-Interdecadal Climate and Streamflow Variability: Applications to Reservoir Management over NW India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robertson, A. W.; Cook, E. R.; Ghil, M.; Greene, A. M.; Kondrashov, D. A.; Lall, U.; Lu, M.

    2013-12-01

    Multi-year storage reservoirs must be managed in the face of weather and climate variability across time scales ranging from daily weather to interannual climate. While seasonal climate may contain a predictable component associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), longer time scales are not yet usefully predictable, nor is the interannual-to-interdecadal power spectrum well estimated from observed data. In addition, climate simulations from general circulation models (GCMs) are often lacking in their ability to generate realistic hydroclimate variability across time scales, especially at small spatial scales. These issues are critical for climate change adaptation planning in water management, where realistic estimates of climate and stream flow variability are required. For the Bhakra reservoir in NW India, we develop estimates of climate and stream flow variability, including the interannual-to-interdecadal power spectrum, based on (1) instrumental stream flow records of the Sutlej river, 1963-2010; (2) tree ring reconstructions of the Sutlej flow back to 1321; and (3) multi-century control simulations of precipitation-minus-evaporation made with several coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs archived in the IPCC CMIP5 database. By comparing these observed, paleo-proxy, and GCM-based estimates, we shed light on the ability of GCMs to simulate realistic hydroclimate variability over the Indus basin, as well as on the nature of tree-ring based streamflow reconstructions. In addition to these estimates of the variability spectrum, we explore the use of a nonlinear, multi-level stochastic polynomial inverse model to bridge between these different datasets.

  14. Interannual Variations and Recurrent Seasonal Discrepancies in Land Surface Latent and Sensible Heat Fluxes from Satellite Data and a Land Surface Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lipton, A.; Liang, P.; Jimenez, C.; Moncet, J. L.; Aires, F.; Prigent, C.; Lynch, R.; d'Entremont, R. P.

    2014-12-01

    Interannual variability of land surface latent and sensible heat fluxes has been analyzed at seasonal and sub-seasonal time scales for flux estimates derived from satellite data and from a land surface model. The satellite-derived estimates were produced with a neural network operating on a combination of microwave, visible, and infrared satellite data products. Properties of these flux datasets were assessed by subjective and statistical methods, including comparisons with data from flux towers. The agreement with tower fluxes is closer for the satellite-derived fluxes than for the LSM fluxes with respect to overall temporal variability. For interannual variations of sub-seasonal fluxes, the satellite/NN and LSM fluxes have similar, moderate correlations (~0.4) with the tower fluxes. Driving factors contributing to the interannual variability and recurrent discrepancies between these flux estimates were identified. These factors include the sensitivity of satellite-derived fluxes to the satellite inputs and the responses of modeled fluxes to changes in soil moisture induced by prior precipitation.

  15. Potential impacts of a future Grand Solar Minimum on decadal regional climate change and interannual hemispherical climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spiegl, Tobias; Langematz, Ulrike

    2016-04-01

    Grand Solar Minimum under RCP6.0 conditions. The results obtained were compared to a RCP6.0 simulation that was carried out using the CCMI recommendations for a 21st century solar forcing. We used the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) chemistry-climate model that incorporates interactive ozone chemistry, a high-resolution shortwave radiation scheme, a high model top (0.01 hPa) and is coupled to a 3D ocean general circulation model. We focused on the regional responses to a future Grand Solar Minimum and interannual variability patterns (i.e. the Northern and Southern Annular Mode (NAM/SAM)).

  16. Constructing the reduced dynamical models of interannual climate variability from spatial-distributed time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukhin, Dmitry; Gavrilov, Andrey; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    We suggest a method for empirical forecast of climate dynamics basing on the reconstruction of reduced dynamical models in a form of random dynamical systems [1,2] derived from observational time series. The construction of proper embedding - the set of variables determining the phase space the model works in - is no doubt the most important step in such a modeling, but this task is non-trivial due to huge dimension of time series of typical climatic fields. Actually, an appropriate expansion of observational time series is needed yielding the number of principal components considered as phase variables, which are to be efficient for the construction of low-dimensional evolution operator. We emphasize two main features the reduced models should have for capturing the main dynamical properties of the system: (i) taking into account time-lagged teleconnections in the atmosphere-ocean system and (ii) reflecting the nonlinear nature of these teleconnections. In accordance to these principles, in this report we present the methodology which includes the combination of a new way for the construction of an embedding by the spatio-temporal data expansion and nonlinear model construction on the basis of artificial neural networks. The methodology is aplied to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data including fields of sea level pressure, geopotential height, and wind speed, covering Northern Hemisphere. Its efficiency for the interannual forecast of various climate phenomena including ENSO, PDO, NAO and strong blocking event condition over the mid latitudes, is demonstrated. Also, we investigate the ability of the models to reproduce and predict the evolution of qualitative features of the dynamics, such as spectral peaks, critical transitions and statistics of extremes. This research was supported by the Government of the Russian Federation (Agreement No. 14.Z50.31.0033 with the Institute of Applied Physics RAS) [1] Y. I. Molkov, E. M. Loskutov, D. N. Mukhin, and A. M. Feigin, "Random

  17. Effects of interannual climate variation on phenology and growth of two alpine forbs

    SciTech Connect

    Walker, M.D.; Ingersoll, R.C.; Webber, P.J.

    1995-06-01

    Variations in growth, flowering, and phenology of two forbs, Acomastylis rossii and Bistorta bistortoides, were compared among six years (1983-1988) and five plant communities (fellfield, dry meadow, moist meadow, wet meadow, snowbed) at an alpine site in the Front Range of Colorado. The purpose was to determine the extent to which the phenological patterns of these species varied among plant communities and how interannual climate variability affects phenology and growth. There were significant differences in growth among communities for both species. In B. bistortoides, there were also significant differences among years, due primarily to the influence of a single year (1983) when leaf length increased by {approximately}10% and the average number of B. bistortoides leaves nearly doubled. Key phenological events of both species (initiation of growth, date of maximum leaf length, leaf number, and flower number) were related to snowmelt patterns, resulting in differences among communities. There were also significant differences among years, again primarily related to the single year 1983, the year of a major El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event that produced high snowfall amounts at the site. The increased leaf length in a high snow year is counterintuitive to the commonly accepted notion that alpine species may be limited by season length. We hypothesize that changes in phenology related to changes in snowfall or snowmelt will cause detectable changes in growth, but that these will not be predicted simply from phenology alone. Rather, the timing of snowmelt in relation to nutrient availability, soil moisture, and air temperature will be critical in determining how individual species respond. 90 refs., 7 figs., 3 tabs.

  18. Identifying the Holocene evolution of interannual climate variability in Southern California river runoff records.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hendy, I. L.; Hinnov, L.; Brown, E. T.; Napier, T.

    2015-12-01

    Precipitation patterns in southern California are strongly correlated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) climate variability during the 20th Century. Heavy rainfall in southern California is generated by warm-wet storms associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) producing flood events, while drought conditions occur when winter precipitation associated with north Pacific low pressure systems does not reach the region. Winter rainfall delivers siliciclastic sediment to Santa Barbara Basin (SBB), CA while spring summer marine productivity provides biogenic sediment resulting in a simple two component laminae couplet. Laminations are preserved in the low oxygen bottom of SBB providing a high temporal resolution paleoclimate record. Here we present scanning XRF generated annually resolved elemental concentrations for the last 9.5 ka in SBB from SPR0901-03KC (34°16.99'N; 120°2.408'W) and MV0811-14JPC (34°16.54'N; 120°2.10'W) in ~586 m water depth. High siliciclastic elemental counts are interpreted as indicating increased river runoff, while low values indicate droughts. Floods events indicative of extreme precipitation events occur throughout the Holocene, however long intervals between floods occur 8.5-7 Ka, 5.6-6.4 Ka and 0.8-1.1 Ka. Notable droughts occur 5.6-6.1, 4.7-5.1, 3.5-4.1, 2.6, 2.1, 1.8, 1.1 and 0.9 Ka. Spectral analysis indicates silicilastic elemental peaks are close to an annual resolution, however annual tuning increases the power of the interannual frequencies without changing the frequency appreciably. High frequency variability is lost during drought intervals.

  19. Annual and Interannual Streamflow Variability for Mountainous Coastal Catchments in a Mediterranean Climate in Relation to Land Use Change and Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beighley, R. E.; Melack, J. M.; Dunne, T.

    2002-12-01

    Annual and interannual streamflow variability is of particular importance along the southern coast of California because of the Mediterranean climate, the hydrologic impacts of both El Nino and La Nina conditions, and the impacts of both runoff quantity and quality on coastal ecosystem. The Mediterranean climate provides annual variability with a seasonal rainfall pattern that accounts for approximately 80 percent of the annual rainfall in four months: December though March. Combining El Nino and La Nina conditions with seasonal rainfall produces significant interannual streamflow variability. Over the 14-year period, 9/1/1988 though 8/31/2002, 10-20 percent of the cumulative discharge occurred in only a few days. A conceptual rainfall-runoff model was developed to simulate streamflow from three sources of runoff: surface, steep shallow soils, and groundwater, as part of the Santa Barbara Channel - Long Term Ecologic Research project. Using simulated streamflow for the 14-year period, which contained 4 El Nino, 4 La Nina, and 6 normal years, and three different land use conditions: pre-development, current development, and projected future urbanization, the impacts of urbanization and climatic conditions were determined. Urbanization is shown to increase peak discharges and runoff while decreasing annual and inter-annual streamflow variability. In all cases, the interannual variability is dependent on climatic conditions with the maximum 10 days of flow from El Nino years producing 5-20 percent of the cumulative 14-year discharge compared to La Nina years that produce only 1-5 percent in 10 days. Regardless of land use conditions, the temporal distribution of runoff is clearly dominated by only a few annual events, with the percentage of annual runoff occurring in 1 day ranging from 20-50 percent. Additionally, the effects of streamflow variability from water years 2001 (wet) and 2002 (dry) are presented in terms of nutrient export from several coastal watersheds

  20. Interannual climate variations in Arctic as driven by the Global atmosphere oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serykh, Ilya; Byshev, Vladimir; Neiman, Victor; Sidorova, Alexandra; Sonechkin, Dmitry

    2015-04-01

    The present-day global climate change affects the Arctic basin substantially more because of the sea ice cover extinction and the permafrost melting. But there are essential variations of these effects from year to year. We believe that these variations might be a regional manifestation of a planetary-scale phenomenon named the Global atmospheric oscillation (GAO). GAO includes the well-known El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) process and similar processes in equatorial Atlantic and Indian Oceans within itself. The goal of this report is to present some arguments to support this point of view. For this goal, we have studied some interrelations between the above-mentioned Arctic anomalies and GAO as seen in global re-analyses of the sea level pressure (SLP) and near surface temperature (NST) for the period of 1920-2013. The mean global fields of SLP and NST have been computed for all El Niño events falling into this time period, and separately, for all and La Niña events. As a result, two (for SLP and NST as well) global fields of the mean El Niño/La Niña difference were obtained. Statistical significance of the non-zero values of these fields, i.e. the reality of GAO, was evaluated with the t-Student's test. It turned out that the main spatial structures of GAO, presented specifically by El Niño and La Niña events in Pacific region, exist at a very high level (up to 99%, t>4) of the significance. Therefore, one can conclude that the interannual-scale dynamics of GAO is actually reflected in the climate features of different regions of the Earth, including the Russian Arctic. In particular, when the boreal winter season coincides with an El Niño event GAO is indicative by a negative anomaly of NST (about -1°C) and a positive anomaly of SLP over the Arctic basin. In contrary, significant (about +1°C) positive anomaly of NST along with reduced SLP over the whole Arctic region is typical for any La Niña event (up to 95%, t>2). To control the reliability

  1. A novel method for the detection of persistent and recurrent climatic regimes as almost invariants of the transfer operator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tantet, A.; Dijkstra, H. A.

    2014-12-01

    A novel method and its numerical implementation to find almost invariants of a dynamical system will be presented, with applications to the detection of persistent and recurrent climatic regimes, coherent structures in ocean flows and spatial patterns of climate variability. The method is based on an estimation of the transfer operator of the particular dynamical system. The detection of almost invariants is posed as a Markov reduction problem with a minimization of the relative entropy, here a measure of the distance between the fine-grained system and the reduced Markov chain. It is implemented using a fast-greedy algorithm from complex network theory. Two applications in different domains of climate science are presented. In the first one, two persistent and recurrent atmospheric flow regimes are identified from a simulation of a barotropic model of the northern hemispheric atmosphere with realistic winter forcing. The regimes correspond to the well-known blocked and zonal circulation regimes of the northern hemisphere. Secondly, the algorithm is applied to a correlation network estimated from 140 years of sea surface temperature data to identify spatial patterns of variability. Dominant patterns on interannual to decadal time-scales are found in the tropical Pacific (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), the North Atlantic (the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and the Indian ocean and West Pacific.

  2. Interannual Variations in Earth's Low-Degree Gravity Field and the Connections With Geophysical/Climatic Changes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, Benjamin F.; Cox, Christopher M.

    2004-01-01

    Long-wavelength time-variable gravity recently derived from satellite laser ranging (SLR) analysis have focused to a large extent on the effects of the recent (since 1998) large anomalous change in J2, or the Earth's oblateness, and the potential causes. However, it is relatively more difficult to determine whether there are corresponding signals in the shorter wavelength zonal harmonics from the existing SLR-derived time variable gravity results, although it appears that geophysical fluid mass transport is being observed. For example, the recovered J3 time series shows remarkable agreement with NCEP-derived estimates of atmospheric gravity variations. Likewise, some of the non-zonal spherical harmonic components have significant interannual signal that appears to be related to mass transport. The non-zonal degree-2 components show reasonable temporal correlation with atmospheric signals, as well as climatic effects such as El Nino Southern Oscillation. We will present recent updates on the J2 evolution, as well as a look at other low-degree components of the interannual variations of gravity, complete through degree 4. We will examine the possible geophysical and climatic causes of these low-degree time-variable gravity related to oceanic and hydrological mass transports, for example some anomalous but prominent signals found in the extratropic Pacific ocean related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

  3. Interannual hypoxia variability in a coastal upwelling system: Ocean shelf exchange, climate and ecosystem-state implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Monteiro, P. M. S.; van der Plas, A. K.; Mélice, J.-L.; Florenchie, P.

    2008-04-01

    In this study we use multi-year time series to examine the dynamic characteristics of coupled physical-biogeochemical processes that modulate interannual coastal hypoxia in the Benguela upwelling system in the southeast Atlantic. The results confirmed earlier findings on the role of advection to explain much of the seasonal-decadal variability. These results challenge the predominantly biogeochemical basis, namely benthic-pelagic coupling, to understand the variability of hypoxia and its ecosystem implications. Unexpectedly, the results showed that the variability was insensitive to changes in the electron-donating capacity (carbon export fluxes) but strongly dependent on the advected oxygen fluxes. The dynamics of the interaction of equatorial and polar boundary conditions (ocean-shelf exchange) and seasonally phased shelf advection were the key forcing functions that explained hypoxia variability in seasonal-decadal time scales. The vulnerability of the system to climate change lies in the long-term response of the equatorial system that governs seasonal and interannual warming at the Angola-Benguela front as well as wind stress in the Luderitz southern boundary that governs ventilation. The proposed model was able to explain most of the decadal scale variability of two different ecosystem-state indicators. The model predicts a long-term decline of present ecosystem function with climate change.

  4. Interannual to Decadal Variability of Ocean Evaporation as Viewed from Climate Reanalyses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Roberts, Jason B.; Wang, Hailan

    2015-01-01

    Questions we'll address: Given the uncoupled framework of "AMIP" (Atmosphere Model Inter-comparison Project) experiments, what can they tell us regarding evaporation variability? Do Reduced Observations Reanalyses (RedObs) using Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SFC) pressure (and wind) provide a more realistic picture of evaporation variability? What signals of interannual variability (e.g. El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) and decadal variability (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)) are detectable with this hierarchy of evaporation estimates?

  5. Predicted changes in interannual water-level fluctuations due to climate change and its implications for the vegetation of the Florida Everglades.

    PubMed

    van der Valk, Arnold G; Volin, John C; Wetzel, Paul R

    2015-04-01

    The number of dominant vegetation types (wet prairies, sawgrass flats, ridges and sloughs, sloughs, and tree islands) historically and currently found in the Everglades, FL, USA, as with other wetlands with standing water, appears to be primarily a function of the magnitude of interannual water-level fluctuations. Analyses of 40 years of water-depth data were used to estimate the magnitude of contemporary (baseline) water-level fluctuations in undisturbed ridge and slough landscapes. Baseline interannual water-level fluctuations above the soil surface were at least 1.5 m. Predicted changes in interannual water-level fluctuations in 2060 were examined for seven climate change scenarios. When rainfall is predicted to increase by 10 %, the wettest scenario, the interannual range of water-level fluctuation increases to 1.8 m above the soil surface in sloughs. When rainfall is predicted to decrease by 10 % and temperatures to increase by 1.5 °C, the driest scenario, the range of interannual range of water-level fluctuations is predicted to decrease to 1.2 m above the soil surface in sloughs. A change of 25-30 cm in interannual water-level fluctuations is needed to change the number of vegetation types in a wetland. This suggests that the two most extreme climate change scenarios could have a significant impact on the overall structure of wetland vegetation, i.e., the number of vegetation types or zones, found in the Everglades.

  6. Interannual variation of carbon fluxes from three contrasting evergreen forests: The role of forest dynamics and climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sierra, C.A.; Loescher, H.W.; Harmon, M.E.; Richardson, A.D.; Hollinger, D.Y.; Perakis, S.S.

    2009-01-01

    Interannual variation of carbon fluxes can be attributed to a number of biotic and abiotic controls that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Type and frequency of disturbance, forest dynamics, and climate regimes are important sources of variability. Assessing the variability of carbon fluxes from these specific sources can enhance the interpretation of past and current observations. Being able to separate the variability caused by forest dynamics from that induced by climate will also give us the ability to determine if the current observed carbon fluxes are within an expected range or whether the ecosystem is undergoing unexpected change. Sources of interannual variation in ecosystem carbon fluxes from three evergreen ecosystems, a tropical, a temperate coniferous, and a boreal forest, were explored using the simulation model STANDCARB. We identified key processes that introduced variation in annual fluxes, but their relative importance differed among the ecosystems studied. In the tropical site, intrinsic forest dynamics contributed ?? 30% of the total variation in annual carbon fluxes. In the temperate and boreal sites, where many forest processes occur over longer temporal scales than those at the tropical site, climate controlled more of the variation among annual fluxes. These results suggest that climate-related variability affects the rates of carbon exchange differently among sites. Simulations in which temperature, precipitation, and radiation varied from year to year (based on historical records of climate variation) had less net carbon stores than simulations in which these variables were held constant (based on historical records of monthly average climate), a result caused by the functional relationship between temperature and respiration. This suggests that, under a more variable temperature regime, large respiratory pulses may become more frequent and high enough to cause a reduction in ecosystem carbon stores. Our results also show

  7. Changes in interannual climate sensitivities of terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 21st century predicted by CMIP5 Earth System Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Yongwen; Wang, Tao; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong

    2016-03-01

    Terrestrial carbon fluxes are sensitive to climate change, but the interannual climate sensitivity of the land carbon cycle can also change with time. We analyzed the changes in responses of net biome production (NBP), net primary production (NPP), and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) to interannual climate variations over the 21st century in the Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, interannual temperature sensitivities of NBP (γTempNBP), NPP (γTempNPP), and Rh (γTempRh) remain relatively stable at global scale, yet with large differences among ESMs and spatial heterogeneity. Modeled γTempNPP and γTempRh appear to increase in parallel in boreal regions, resulting in unchanged γTempNBP. Tropical γTempNBP decreases in most models, due to decreasing γTempNPP and relatively stable γTempRh. Across models, the changes in γTempNBP can be mainly explained by changes in γTempNPP rather than changes in γTempRh, at both global and regional scales. Interannual precipitation sensitivities of global NBP (γPrecNBP), NPP (γPrecNPP), and Rh (γPrecRh) are predicted not to change significantly, with large differences among ESMs. Across models, the changes in γPrecNBP can be mainly explained by changes in γPrecNPP rather than changes in γPrecRh in temperate regions, but not in other regions. Changes in the interannual climate sensitivities of carbon fluxes are consistent across RCPs 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 but larger in more intensive scenarios. More effort should be considered to improve terrestrial carbon flux responses to interannual climate variability, e.g., incorporating biogeochemical processes of nutrient limitation, permafrost dynamics, and microbial decomposition.

  8. Feedback of observed interannual vegetation change: a regional climate model analysis for the West African monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klein, Cornelia; Bliefernicht, Jan; Heinzeller, Dominikus; Gessner, Ursula; Klein, Igor; Kunstmann, Harald

    2016-06-01

    West Africa is a hot spot region for land-atmosphere coupling where atmospheric conditions and convective rainfall can strongly depend on surface characteristics. To investigate the effect of natural interannual vegetation changes on the West African monsoon precipitation, we implement satellite-derived dynamical datasets for vegetation fraction (VF), albedo and leaf area index into the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Two sets of 4-member ensembles with dynamic and static land surface description are used to extract vegetation-related changes in the interannual difference between August-September 2009 and 2010. The observed vegetation patterns retain a significant long-term memory of preceding rainfall patterns of at least 2 months. The interannual vegetation changes exhibit the strongest effect on latent heat fluxes and associated surface temperatures. We find a decrease (increase) of rainy hours over regions with higher (lower) VF during the day and the opposite during the night. The probability that maximum precipitation is shifted to nighttime (daytime) over higher (lower) VF is 12 % higher than by chance. We attribute this behaviour to horizontal circulations driven by differential heating. Over more vegetated regions, the divergence of moist air together with lower sensible heat fluxes hinders the initiation of deep convection during the day. During the night, mature convective systems cause an increase in the number of rainy hours over these regions. We identify this feedback in both water- and energy-limited regions of West Africa. The inclusion of observed dynamical surface information improved the spatial distribution of modelled rainfall in the Sahel with respect to observations, illustrating the potential of satellite data as a boundary constraint for atmospheric models.

  9. Effects of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of evapotranspiration in a coniferous plantation in subtropical China.

    PubMed

    Xu, Mingjie; Wen, Xuefa; Wang, Huimin; Zhang, Wenjiang; Dai, Xiaoqin; Song, Jie; Wang, Yidong; Fu, Xiaoli; Liu, Yunfen; Sun, Xiaomin; Yu, Guirui

    2014-01-01

    Because evapotranspiration (ET) is the second largest component of the water cycle and a critical process in terrestrial ecosystems, understanding the inter-annual variability of ET is important in the context of global climate change. Eight years of continuous eddy covariance measurements (2003-2010) in a subtropical coniferous plantation were used to investigate the impacts of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of ET. The mean and standard deviation of annual ET for 2003-2010 were 786.9 and 103.4 mm (with a coefficient of variation of 13.1%), respectively. The inter-annual variability of ET was largely created in three periods: March, May-June, and October, which are the transition periods between seasons. A set of look-up table approaches were used to separate the sources of inter-annual variability of ET. The annual ETs were calculated by assuming that (a) both the climate and ecosystem responses among years are variable (Vcli-eco), (b) the climate is variable but the ecosystem responses are constant (Vcli), and (c) the climate is constant but ecosystem responses are variable (Veco). The ETs that were calculated under the above assumptions suggested that the inter-annual variability of ET was dominated by ecosystem responses and that there was a negative interaction between the effects of climate and ecosystem responses. These results suggested that for long-term predictions of water and energy balance in global climate change projections, the ecosystem responses must be taken into account to better constrain the uncertainties associated with estimation. PMID:24465610

  10. Groundwater level response in U.S. Principal Aquifers to natural climate variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velasco, E.; Gurdak, J. J.; Dickinson, J.; Hanson, R. T.; Ferré, T. P. A.; Maurer, E. P.

    2014-12-01

    Natural climate variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales are important controls on precipitation, drought, evapotranspiration, streamflow, and groundwater recharge. Climate variability can also augment or diminish human stresses on water resources. Thus, understanding climate variability has particular relevance for groundwater management. Findings will be presented from a national scale study of groundwater level response to natural climate variability in principal aquifers (PAs) of the U.S., including the California Coastal Basin, Rio Grande, Coastal Lowlands, Mississippi Embayment, Floridan, and Glacial aquifer systems. We use the U.S. Geological Survey hydroclimatic analysis toolkit HydroClimATe to perform singular spectrum analysis and identify quasi-periodic signals in precipitation and groundwater time series that are coincident with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) (6-12 mo cycle), Pacific/North American oscillation (PNA) (<1-4 yr cycle), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2-7 yr cycle), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (3-6 yr cycle), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (15-30 yr cycle), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (50-70 yr cycle). Nearly all of the quasi-periodic signals in the precipitation and groundwater levels have a statistically significant lag correlation (95% confidence interval) with the AO, PNA, ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AMO indices. The largest amount of variance in precipitation and groundwater levels was attributed to the PDO, accounting for more than 90% of the variance in many PAs. The next largest amount of variance in precipitation and groundwater levels was attributed to ENSO, accounting for more than 50% of the variance in many PAs. The AMO was the least frequently detected signal in all time series but accounted for as much as 95% of the variance when detected. Thus, climate variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales has a statistically significant and measurable effect on the lagged responses of

  11. Interannual variations in spring phenology and their response to climate change across the Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Lingling; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Donnelly, Alison; Liu, Xinjie

    2016-10-01

    Land surface phenology has been widely used to evaluate the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems in recent decades. Climate warming on the Tibetan Plateau (1960-2010, 0.2 °C/decade) has been found to be greater than the global average (1951-2012, 0.12 °C/decade), which has had a significant impact on the timing of spring greenup. However, the magnitude and direction of change in spring phenology and its response to warming temperature and precipitation are currently under scientific debate. In an attempt to explore this issue further, we detected the onset of greenup based on the time series of daily two-band enhanced vegetation index (EVI2) from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) long-term data record (LTDR; 1982-1999) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Climate Modeling Grid (CMG; 2000-2013) using hybrid piecewise logistic models. Further, we examined the temporal trend in greenup onset in both individual pixels and ecoregions across the entire Tibetan Plateau over the following periods: 1982-1999, 2000-2013, and 1982-2013. The interannual variation in greenup onset was linked to the mean temperature and cumulative precipitation in the preceding month, and total precipitation during winter and spring, respectively. Finally, we investigated the relationship between interannual variation in greenup onset dates and temperature and precipitation from 1982 to 2013 at different elevational zones for different ecoregions. The results revealed no significant trend in the onset of greenup from 1982 to 2013 in more than 86 % of the Tibetan Plateau. For each study period, statistically significant earlier greenup trends were observed mainly in the eastern meadow regions while later greenup trends mainly occurred in the southwestern steppe and meadow regions both with areal coverage of less than 8 %. Although spring phenology was negatively correlated with spring temperature and precipitation in the majority of pixels

  12. Interannual variations in spring phenology and their response to climate change across the Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Lingling; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Donnelly, Alison; Liu, Xinjie

    2016-03-01

    Land surface phenology has been widely used to evaluate the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems in recent decades. Climate warming on the Tibetan Plateau (1960-2010, 0.2 °C/decade) has been found to be greater than the global average (1951-2012, 0.12 °C/decade), which has had a significant impact on the timing of spring greenup. However, the magnitude and direction of change in spring phenology and its response to warming temperature and precipitation are currently under scientific debate. In an attempt to explore this issue further, we detected the onset of greenup based on the time series of daily two-band enhanced vegetation index (EVI2) from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) long-term data record (LTDR; 1982-1999) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Climate Modeling Grid (CMG; 2000-2013) using hybrid piecewise logistic models. Further, we examined the temporal trend in greenup onset in both individual pixels and ecoregions across the entire Tibetan Plateau over the following periods: 1982-1999, 2000-2013, and 1982-2013. The interannual variation in greenup onset was linked to the mean temperature and cumulative precipitation in the preceding month, and total precipitation during winter and spring, respectively. Finally, we investigated the relationship between interannual variation in greenup onset dates and temperature and precipitation from 1982 to 2013 at different elevational zones for different ecoregions. The results revealed no significant trend in the onset of greenup from 1982 to 2013 in more than 86 % of the Tibetan Plateau. For each study period, statistically significant earlier greenup trends were observed mainly in the eastern meadow regions while later greenup trends mainly occurred in the southwestern steppe and meadow regions both with areal coverage of less than 8 %. Although spring phenology was negatively correlated with spring temperature and precipitation in the majority of pixels

  13. Linking diurnal cycles of river flow to interannual variations in climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lundquist, Jessica D.; Dettinger, Michael D.

    2003-01-01

    Many rivers in the Western United States have diurnal variations exceeding 10% of their mean flow in the spring and summer months. The shape and timing of the diurnal cycle is influenced by an interplay of the snow, topography, vegetation, and meteorology in a basin, and the measured result differs between wet and dry years. The largest interannual differences occur during the latter half of the melt season, as the snowline retreats to the highest elevations and most shaded slopes in a basin. In most basins, during this period, the hour of peak discharge shifts to later in the day, and the relative amplitude of the diurnal cycle decreases. The magnitude and rate of these changes in the diurnal cycle vary between years and may provide clues about how long- term hydroclimatic variations affect short-term basin dynamics.

  14. Interannual abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton unveil climate-driven hydrographic variations in the Iberian Peninsula, Portugal.

    PubMed

    D'Ambrosio, Mariaelena; Molinero, Juan C; Azeiteiro, Ulisses M; Pardal, Miguel A; Primo, Ana L; Nyitrai, Daniel; Marques, Sónia C

    2016-09-01

    The persistent massive blooms of gelatinous zooplankton recorded during recent decades may be indicative of marine ecosystem changes. In this study, we investigated the potential influence of the North Atlantic climate (NAO) variability on decadal abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary, Portugal, over the period 2003-2013. During the 11-year study, the community of gelatinous carnivores encompassed a larger diversity of hydromedusae than siphonophores; the former dominated by Obelia spp., Lizzia blondina, Clythia hemisphaerica, Liriope tetraphylla and Solmaris corona, while the latter dominated by Muggiaea atlantica. Gelatinous carnivore zooplankton displayed marked interannual variability and mounting species richness over the period examined. Their pattern of abundance shifted towards larger abundances ca. 2007 and significant phenological changes. The latter included a shift in the mean annual pattern (from unimodal to bimodal peak, prior and after 2007 respectively) and an earlier timing of the first annual peak concurrent with enhanced temperatures. These changes were concurrent with the climate-driven environmental variability mainly controlled by the NAO, which displayed larger variance after 2007 along with an enhanced upwelling activity. Structural equation modelling allowed depicting cascading effects derived from the NAO influence on regional climate and upwelling variability further shaping water temperature. Such cascading effect percolated the structure and dynamics of the community of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary. PMID:27494188

  15. Interannual abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton unveil climate-driven hydrographic variations in the Iberian Peninsula, Portugal.

    PubMed

    D'Ambrosio, Mariaelena; Molinero, Juan C; Azeiteiro, Ulisses M; Pardal, Miguel A; Primo, Ana L; Nyitrai, Daniel; Marques, Sónia C

    2016-09-01

    The persistent massive blooms of gelatinous zooplankton recorded during recent decades may be indicative of marine ecosystem changes. In this study, we investigated the potential influence of the North Atlantic climate (NAO) variability on decadal abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary, Portugal, over the period 2003-2013. During the 11-year study, the community of gelatinous carnivores encompassed a larger diversity of hydromedusae than siphonophores; the former dominated by Obelia spp., Lizzia blondina, Clythia hemisphaerica, Liriope tetraphylla and Solmaris corona, while the latter dominated by Muggiaea atlantica. Gelatinous carnivore zooplankton displayed marked interannual variability and mounting species richness over the period examined. Their pattern of abundance shifted towards larger abundances ca. 2007 and significant phenological changes. The latter included a shift in the mean annual pattern (from unimodal to bimodal peak, prior and after 2007 respectively) and an earlier timing of the first annual peak concurrent with enhanced temperatures. These changes were concurrent with the climate-driven environmental variability mainly controlled by the NAO, which displayed larger variance after 2007 along with an enhanced upwelling activity. Structural equation modelling allowed depicting cascading effects derived from the NAO influence on regional climate and upwelling variability further shaping water temperature. Such cascading effect percolated the structure and dynamics of the community of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary.

  16. The sensitivity of wood production to seasonal and interannual variations in climate in a lowland Amazonian rainforest.

    PubMed

    Rowland, Lucy; Malhi, Y; Silva-Espejo, J E; Farfán-Amézquita, F; Halladay, K; Doughty, C E; Meir, P; Phillips, O L

    2014-01-01

    Understanding climatic controls on tropical forest productivity is key to developing more reliable models for predicting how tropical biomes may respond to climate change. Currently there is no consensus on which factors control seasonal changes in tropical forest tree growth. This study reports the first comprehensive plot-level description of the seasonality of growth in a Peruvian tropical forest. We test whether seasonal and interannual variations in climate are correlated with changes in biomass increment, and whether such relationships differ among trees with different functional traits. We found that biomass increments, measured every 3 months on the two plots, were reduced by between 40 and 55% in the peak dry season (July-September) relative to peak wet season (January-March). The seasonal patterns of biomass accumulation are significantly (p < 0.01) associated with seasonal patterns of rainfall and soil water content; however, this may reflect a synchrony of seasonal cycles rather than direct physiological controls on tree growth rates. The strength of the growth seasonality response among trees is significantly correlated to functional traits: consistent with a hypothesised trade-off between maximum potential growth rate and hydraulic safety, tall and fast-growing trees with broad stems had the most strongly seasonal biomass accumulation, suggesting that they are more productive in the wet season, but more vulnerable to water limitation in the dry season. PMID:24026500

  17. Interannual variabilities in tropospheric constituents during 2000-2013 simulated in a chemistry-aerosol coupled climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sudo, K.; Ito, A.

    2014-12-01

    Global distributions and abundances of tropospheric constituents (O3, CH4, NOy, CO, VOCs, NHx, SOx and aerosols) interannually change under the influences of meteorology (transport, temperature, water vapor, clouds, rain, etc.) and emissions from anthropogenic/natural sources and biomass burning. Given the importance of climate effects of these species as short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), there have been increasing number of studies to project future changes in individual constituents and assess impacts of emission reduction in future. Since chemistry climate model is basically used for such purpose, model validation against the observations and precise interpretation/understanding of changing processes in a model are essentially needed. In this study, we investigate interannual variability of tropospheric constituents during the years 2000 to 2013 in a chemistry-aerosol coupled climate model. The base chemical model used in this study is CHASER (Sudo et al., 2002, 2007) coupled with the aerosol model SPRINTARS (Takemura et al., 2006). The CHASER model, also developed in the framework of the MIROC earth system model (MIROC-ESM-CHEM), simulates detailed chemistry in the troposphere and stratosphere with an on-line aerosol simulation including production of particulate nitrate and SOA. We use the NCEP reanalysis data (FNL) for constraining the model's meteorology. Anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions are specified using the HTAP2 and MAC inventories, respectively. For biogenic VOCs emissions, we employ calculation by the land ecosystem/trace gas emission model VISIT (Ito et al., 2008). Our results show that temporal variability (anomaly) in surface and lower tropospheric ozone very clearly correlates with that in CO especially in NH, indicating principal importance of biomass burning emission in determining near-surface O3 variability; surface PM (PM2.5) in NH also coincides with CO. Changes in middle to upper tropospheric O3, on the other hand

  18. Spectral Kernel Approach to Study Radiative Response of Climate Variables and Interannual Variability of Reflected Solar Spectrum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jin, Zhonghai; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Loukachine, Constantin; Charlock, Thomas P.; Young, David; Noeel, Stefan

    2011-01-01

    The radiative kernel approach provides a simple way to separate the radiative response to different climate parameters and to decompose the feedback into radiative and climate response components. Using CERES/MODIS/Geostationary data, we calculated and analyzed the solar spectral reflectance kernels for various climate parameters on zonal, regional, and global spatial scales. The kernel linearity is tested. Errors in the kernel due to nonlinearity can vary strongly depending on climate parameter, wavelength, surface, and solar elevation; they are large in some absorption bands for some parameters but are negligible in most conditions. The spectral kernels are used to calculate the radiative responses to different climate parameter changes in different latitudes. The results show that the radiative response in high latitudes is sensitive to the coverage of snow and sea ice. The radiative response in low latitudes is contributed mainly by cloud property changes, especially cloud fraction and optical depth. The large cloud height effect is confined to absorption bands, while the cloud particle size effect is found mainly in the near infrared. The kernel approach, which is based on calculations using CERES retrievals, is then tested by direct comparison with spectral measurements from Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY) (a different instrument on a different spacecraft). The monthly mean interannual variability of spectral reflectance based on the kernel technique is consistent with satellite observations over the ocean, but not over land, where both model and data have large uncertainty. RMS errors in kernel ]derived monthly global mean reflectance over the ocean compared to observations are about 0.001, and the sampling error is likely a major component.

  19. Climate co-variability between South America and Southern Africa at interannual, intraseasonal and synoptic scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Puaud, Yohan; Pohl, Benjamin; Fauchereau, Nicolas; Macron, Clémence; Beltrando, Gérard

    2016-08-01

    This paper investigates and quantifies co-variability between large-scale convection in the South American and Southern African sectors at different timescales (interannual, intraseasonal and synoptic), during the austral summer seasons (November-February) from 1979 to 2012. Multivariate analyses (Canonical Correlation Analysis and Principal Component Analysis) are applied to daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR, used as a proxy for atmospheric convection) anomalies to extract the principal modes of variability and co-variability in each and between both regions, filtered to consider the appropriate time-scales. At the interannual timescale, results confirm the predominant role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), favoring enhanced convection over both southeastern Brazil and northern Argentina on the one hand, and tropical Africa and the western Indian Ocean on the other hand. At the intraseasonal timescale, the leading mode of co-variability is related to modulations of large-scale atmospheric convection over most of South America, and 10 days later, tropical Southern Africa. This mode accounts for the impacts of the Madden-Julian-oscillation (MJO) over these regions: identifying robust co-variability at the intraseasonal timescale between both regions require thus to consider a temporal shift between the two sectors. At the synoptic scale, however, co-variability consists mostly of a synchronous modulation of the large-scale atmospheric convection over the South American and Southern African sectors. This results from the development of concomitant Rossby waves forming a continuous wave train over the South Atlantic in the mid-latitudes, affecting both the South Atlantic and South Indian Convergence Zones. Among the days when convection shows significant anomalies (30 % of the total days in each sector), this synchronous mode occurs about 25 % of the time, individual Rossby waves modulating convection over one single region only during the remaining 75

  20. Impact of inter-annual climatic variability on ecosystem carbon exchange in two grazed temperate grasslands with contrasting drainage regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choncubhair, Órlaith Ní; Humphreys, James; Lanigan, Gary

    2014-05-01

    Temperate grasslands constitute over 30% of the Earth's naturally-occurring biomes and make an important contribution towards the partial mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by terrestrial ecosystems. Accumulation of carbon (C) in grassland systems predominantly takes place in below-ground repositories, enhanced by the presence of a stable soil environment with low carbon turnover rates, active rhizodeposition and high levels of residue and organic inputs. Predicted future warming is expected to increase productivity in temperate zones, thereby enhancing rates of terrestrial carbon sequestration. However, the susceptibility of many ecosystems, including grasslands, to extreme climatic events and inter-annual variability has been demonstrated previously. Temperature anomalies as well as modifications in the temporal pattern and quantity of precipitation alter the balance between carbon uptake and release processes and a mechanistic understanding of ecosystem response to such changes is still lacking. In the present study, the impact of extreme inter-annual variability in summer rainfall and temperature on carbon dynamics in two rotationally-grazed grasslands in Ireland was examined. The sites experience similar temperate climatic regimes but differ in soil drainage characteristics. Eddy covariance measurements of net ecosystem exchange of carbon were complemented by regular assessment of standing biomass, leaf cover, harvest exports and organic amendment inputs. The summers of 2012 and 2013 showed contrasting climatic conditions, with summer precipitation 93% higher and 25% lower respectively than long-term means. In addition, soil temperatures were 7% lower and 11% higher than expected. Cool, wet conditions in 2012 facilitated net carbon uptake for more than ten months of the year at the poorly-drained site, however the ecosystem switched to a net source of carbon in 2013 during months with significantly reduced rainfall. In contrast, net C

  1. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange of a temperate mountain grassland: effects of climate and management

    PubMed Central

    Wohlfahrt, Georg; Hammerle, Albin; Haslwanter, Alois; Bahn, Michael; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Cernusca, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    The role and relative importance of climate and cutting for the seasonal and inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 (NEE) of a temperate mountain grassland was investigated. Eddy covariance CO2 flux data and associated measurements of the green area index and the major environmental driving forces acquired during 2001-2006 at the study site Neustift (Austria) were analyzed. Driven by three cutting events per year which kept the investigated grassland in a stage of vigorous growth, the seasonal variability of NEE was primarily modulated by gross primary productivity (GPP). The role of environmental parameters in modulating the seasonal variability of NEE was obscured by the strong response of GPP to changes in the amount of green area, as well as the cutting-mediated decoupling of phenological development and the seasonal course of climate drivers. None of the climate and management metrics examined was able to explain the inter-annual variability of annual NEE. This is thought to result from (1) a high covariance between GPP and ecosystem respiration (Reco) at the annual time scale which results in a comparatively small inter-annual variation of NEE, (2) compensating effects between carbon exchange during and outside the management period, and (3) changes in the biotic response to rather than the climate variables per se. GPP was more important in modulating inter-annual variations in NEE in spring and before the first and second cut, while Reco explained a larger fraction of the inter-annual variability of NEE during the remaining, in particular the post-cut, periods. PMID:24383047

  2. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange of a temperate mountain grassland: effects of climate and management.

    PubMed

    Wohlfahrt, Georg; Hammerle, Albin; Haslwanter, Alois; Bahn, Michael; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Cernusca, Alexander

    2008-04-27

    The role and relative importance of climate and cutting for the seasonal and inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 (NEE) of a temperate mountain grassland was investigated. Eddy covariance CO2 flux data and associated measurements of the green area index and the major environmental driving forces acquired during 2001-2006 at the study site Neustift (Austria) were analyzed. Driven by three cutting events per year which kept the investigated grassland in a stage of vigorous growth, the seasonal variability of NEE was primarily modulated by gross primary productivity (GPP). The role of environmental parameters in modulating the seasonal variability of NEE was obscured by the strong response of GPP to changes in the amount of green area, as well as the cutting-mediated decoupling of phenological development and the seasonal course of climate drivers. None of the climate and management metrics examined was able to explain the inter-annual variability of annual NEE. This is thought to result from (1) a high covariance between GPP and ecosystem respiration (Reco) at the annual time scale which results in a comparatively small inter-annual variation of NEE, (2) compensating effects between carbon exchange during and outside the management period, and (3) changes in the biotic response to rather than the climate variables per se. GPP was more important in modulating inter-annual variations in NEE in spring and before the first and second cut, while Reco explained a larger fraction of the inter-annual variability of NEE during the remaining, in particular the post-cut, periods. PMID:24383047

  3. Identifying driving climate factors of wheat and maize yields inter-annual variability in France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ceglar, Andrej; Toreti, Andrea; Lecerf, Remi; Dentener, Frank J.

    2015-04-01

    A canonical powered Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) approach is here used to estimate the relationship between meteorological variables and crop (durum wheat and grain maize) yield time series over France. This method combines the advantages of both the Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) and the PLSR. The latter is mainly based on the extraction of a subset of latent variables (having the best predictive power) from the full set of predictors. The method is applied to detrended (by using a LOESS approach) time series of crop yields and monthly mean temperature, cumulated precipitation and global solar radiation during the growing seasons from 1990 to 2011. Results show that, overall, temperature has a substantial influence on winter wheat yields in south-western and eastern France, while rainfall plays an important role in the northern and southern parts of the country. Finally, radiation is more important over the southern part of France. Concerning grain maize, the inferred statistical models show relatively low skill over the northern part of France, where inter-annual yield variability is low. Overall, results show that temperature is the most important variable influencing grain maize yields over the southern and eastern parts of France, while rainfall is more important in the central and northern parts of the country. Finally, global radiation is the main meteorological factor over the westernmost part of France.

  4. Climatic regulation of the Black Sea hydro-meteorological and ecological properties at interannual-to-decadal time scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oguz, Temel; Dippner, Joachim W.; Kaymaz, Zerefsan

    2006-05-01

    An examination of a wide spectrum of hydro-meteorological and biogeochemical records in the Black Sea from the previous century possesses a robust climatic signature at interannual to interdecadal time scales. Superimposed on the first eigenmode of the data with interdecadal changes on the order of 15 to 30-year band, the second mode reflects oscillations with the period of about 10 years. The cold and dry winters generally take place within the first half of each decade, and they switch to mild and warm winters during the second halves. All the water column physical and biogeochemical properties examined respond accordingly to such oscillations. For example, the years with the cold (mild) winters correspond to the periods of increasing (decreasing) nutrient and hydrogen sulfide concentrations, phytoplankton biomass. These variations appear to be governed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic-West Russia (EAWR) teleconnection patterns comprising various combinations of the low and high surface pressure anomaly centers over the North Atlantic and Eurasia. The NAO teleconnection to the Black Sea is opposite to that taking place in the eastern North Atlantic and its marginal seas. The relatively cold and dry winters occur during the positive phase of the NAO, and visa versa for the milder and wetter winters. The Black Sea Climate Index, constructed using more than 100-year-long time series of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the sea surface temperature, air temperature, sea level anomaly, provides a composite representation of the dominant mode of regional climate variability, and explains 46% of the total variance. The results point to a very efficient coupling between the anthropogenic and climatic forcing for driving the dramatic ecosystem changes observed during the 1980s and 1990s.

  5. Fluorscence signatures of dissolved organic material in an alpine lake ecosystem: responses to interannual climate variation and nutrient cycling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McKnight, Diane; Olivier, Matt; Hell, Katherina

    2016-04-01

    During snowmelt alpine lakes receive lower concentrations of dissolved organic material (DOM) that originates from the surrounding watershed than sub-alpine and montane lakes at lower elevations. Alpine lakes also have a shorter ice-free period that constrains the summer season of phytoplankton growth. Nonetheless, previous study of the reactive transport and production of DOM in an alpine lake in the Colorado Front Range during snowmelt and the summer ice-free season has shown that changes in DOM sources and the influence of biogeochemical processes can be resolved using fluorescence spectroscopy. Here we examine inter-annual variations in DOM fluorescence signatures during the snowmelt and summer periods in comparison to records of climate, residence time and primary production in the lake during the summer. Our analysis shows that variation in chlorophyll a concentration is a driver for variations in the fluorescence index (FI), as well as for specific ultra-violet absorbance. This result supports the predictions from the previous reactive transport modeling. We also conducted mesocosm experiments with nutrient enrichment to explore the role of nitrogen and phosphorus availability in influencing the fluorescence signature of DOM in summer. These results suggest that monitoring of simple spectroscopic properties of DOM can provide a means to track the biogeochemical consequences for alpine lakes of "too much" summer as climate continues to change.

  6. Dust interannual variability and trend in Central Asia from 2000 to 2014 and their climatic linkages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xi, Xin; Sokolik, Irina N.

    2015-12-01

    We present a comprehensive analysis of the interannual variability and trend of dust aerosol in Central Asia (37°-55°N, 50°-80°E) from 2000 to 2014, based on a set of dust emission simulations using the WRF-Chem-DuMo modeling system, observations of dust frequency derived from surface station synoptic weather records, and dust optical depth (DOD) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) aerosol optical depth (AOD) products. Model simulations reveal that the soil grain size distribution has little impact on the interannual variability of dust fluxes but strongly affects their magnitude. The two physically based dust schemes based on Marticorena and Bergametti (1995) (MB) and Shao et al. (1996) (Shao) produce large differences in the dust flux magnitude and spatiotemporal distributions, largely due to different sensitivities of the threshold friction velocity to vegetation-induced surface roughness. By using a fixed threshold velocity, the dust scheme of Tegen and Fung (1995) (TF) relies on the dynamic dust source function to capture the dust variability associated with vegetation changes. Through a correlation analysis, the simulated dust fluxes show good consistency with the observed dust frequency, whereas only the Shao and TF dust fluxes are consistent with the MODIS Collection 5.1 and SeaWiFS DOD. The dust fluxes, dust frequency, and DOD (except MODIS Collection 6) are highly correlated with the frequency of strong surface winds but show different sensitivities to drought and soil erodibility factors (i.e., precipitation, soil moisture, and vegetation) which are influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In general, La Niña years are associated with reduced precipitation, drier soils, less vegetation, and, consequently, more severe drought and enhanced dust activity in Central Asia. The averaged dust flux of the MB and Shao experiments shows a significant negative trend

  7. The role of climate on inter-annual variation in stream nitrate fluxes and concentrations.

    PubMed

    Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal; Aurousseau, Pierre; Durand, Patrick; Ruiz, Laurent; Molenat, Jérôme

    2010-11-01

    In recent decades, temporal variations in nitrate fluxes and concentrations in temperate rivers have resulted from the interaction of anthropogenic and climatic factors. The effect of climatic drivers remains unclear, while the relative importance of the drivers seems to be highly site dependent. This paper focuses on 2-6 year variations called meso-scale variations, and analyses the climatic drivers of these variations in a study site characterized by high N inputs from intensive animal farming systems and shallow aquifers with impervious bedrock in a temperate climate. Three approaches are developed: 1) an analysis of long-term records of nitrate fluxes and nitrate concentrations in 30 coastal rivers of Western France, which were well-marked by meso-scale cycles in the fluxes and concentration with a slight hysteresis; 2) a test of the climatic control using a lumped two-box model, which demonstrates that hydrological assumptions are sufficient to explain these meso-scale cycles; and 3) a model of nitrate fluxes and concentrations in two contrasted catchments subjected to recent mitigation measures, which analyses nitrate fluxes and concentrations in relation to N stored in groundwater. In coastal rivers, hydrological drivers (i.e., effective rainfall), and particularly the dynamics of the water table and rather stable nitrate concentration, explain the meso-scale cyclic patterns. In the headwater catchment, agricultural and hydrological drivers can interact according to their settings. The requirements to better distinguish the effect of climate and human changes in integrated water management are addressed: long-term monitoring, coupling the analysis and the modelling of large sets of catchments incorporating different sizes, land uses and environmental factors. PMID:19497610

  8. The Role of Lightning in Controlling Interannual Variability of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone and OH and its Implications for Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murray, Lee T.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Hudman, Rynda C.; Koshak, William J.

    2012-01-01

    Nitrogen oxides (NO(x) = NO + NO2) produced by lightning make a major contribution to the production of the dominant tropospheric oxidants (OH and ozone). These oxidants control the lifetime of many trace gases including long-lived greenhouse gases, and control the source-receptor relationship of inter-hemispheric pollutant transport. Lightning is affected by meteorological variability, and therefore represents a potentially important tropospheric chemistry-climate feedback. Understanding how interannual variability (IAV) in lightning affects IAV in ozone and OH in the recent past is important if we are to predict how oxidant levels may change in a future warmer climate. However, lightning parameterizations for chemical transport models (CTMs) show low skill in reproducing even climatological distributions of flash rates from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) satellite instruments. We present an optimized regional scaling algorithm for CTMs that enables sufficient sampling of spatiotemporally sparse satellite lightning data from LIS to constrain the spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability of tropical lightning. We construct a monthly time series of lightning flash rates for 1998-2010 and 35degS-35degN, and find a correlation of IAV in total tropical lightning with El Nino. We use the IAV-constraint to drive a 9-year hindcast (1998-2006) of the GEOS-Chem 3D chemical transport model, and find the increased IAV in LNO(x) drives increased IAV in ozone and OH, improving the model fs ability to simulate both. Although lightning contributes more than any other emission source to IAV in ozone, we find ozone more sensitive to meteorology, particularly convective transport. However, we find IAV in OH to be highly sensitive to lightning NO(x), and the constraint improves the ability of the model to capture the temporal behavior of OH anomalies inferred from observations of methyl chloroform and other gases. The sensitivity of

  9. Assessing Interannual Variation in Growth Response of Big Sagebrush to Climate in Spring Valley, NV

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Apodaca, L. F.; Devitt, D.; Fenstermaker, L.

    2012-12-01

    An assessment of the growth response of key vegetative species to climatic variability is vital to understanding possible impacts on ecosystems threatened by impending hydrologic change. Big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) communities in Spring Valley, NV are predicted to experience changes in water availability brought about by climate change that could result in widespread shifts in community composition, ecotonal boundaries, and plant phenology. The degree and direction of the growth response of sagebrush species to these changes is of great interest to land managers as a decline in growth and plant vigor has implications on the long-term trajectories for community biodiversity and wildfire management practices. To evaluate growth response to past climate variability, an empirical relationship between sagebrush growth ring indices and satellite-derived vegetation indices (NDVI) was examined in the context of historical precipitation. Ring indices were constructed using over one hundred stem cross-sections sampled from thirty-six sagebrush stands located throughout the large, spatially heterogenous 900 km2 Spring Valley study area. Growing season NDVI values were extracted from Landsat scenes collected between 1986 and 2010. Sagebrush early and late wood indices were also compared to seasonal precipitation records in order to examine both the progression of wood development throughout the growing season and the seasonal contribution of spring and summer precipitation to wood growth. The results will allow for a more comprehensive assessment of past vegetative response to climate variation, both temporally and spatially, which can be used in the modeling of growth of an important desert species.

  10. Climate Variability and Oceanographic Settings Associated with Interannual Variability in the Initiation of Dinophysis acuminata Blooms

    PubMed Central

    Díaz, Patricio A.; Reguera, Beatriz; Ruiz-Villarreal, Manuel; Pazos, Yolanda; Velo-Suárez, Lourdes; Berger, Henrick; Sourisseau, Marc

    2013-01-01

    In 2012, there were exceptional blooms of D. acuminata in early spring in what appeared to be a mesoscale event affecting Western Iberia and the Bay of Biscay. The objective of this work was to identify common climatic patterns to explain the observed anomalies in two important aquaculture sites, the Galician Rías Baixas (NW Spain) and Arcachon Bay (SW France). Here, we examine climate variability through physical-biological couplings, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies and time of initiation of the upwelling season and its intensity over several decades. In 2012, the mesoscale features common to the two sites were positive anomalies in SST and unusual wind patterns. These led to an atypical predominance of upwelling in winter in the Galician Rías, and increased haline stratification associated with a southward advection of the Gironde plume in Arcachon Bay. Both scenarios promoted an early phytoplankton growth season and increased stability that enhanced D. acuminata growth. Therefore, a common climate anomaly caused exceptional blooms of D. acuminata in two distant regions through different triggering mechanisms. These results increase our capability to predict intense diarrhetic shellfish poisoning outbreaks in the early spring from observations in the preceding winter. PMID:23959151

  11. Effects of interannual climate variation on aboveground phytomass in alpine vegetation

    SciTech Connect

    Walker, M.D.; Webber, P.J.; Arnold, E.H. ); Ebert-May, D. )

    1994-03-01

    Relationships between peak annual vascular aboveground phytomass and annual climate variation in alpine plant communities located on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, were analyzed using path analysis. The five community types, fellfield, dry meadow, moist meadow, wet meadow, and snowbed, represent a snow depth-soil moisture gradient and broadly represent the most common vegetation types on east-facing slopes of the Front Range alpine zone. using nine successive years of data, this is the first longer term analysis of alpine phytomass and climate and one of the longest nonagricultural production records available. Live phytomass ranged from 97 g/m[sup 2] (snowbed) to 237 g/m[sup 2] (fellfield). Among-community differences in phytomass were greater than differences among years, but there was a significant phytomass variation among years. Path analysis indicated that climate accounted for 15-40% of the variation in phytomass. The dry communities, fellfield (exposed rocky summit areas dominated by cushion and mat plants) and dry meadow, were most sensitive to previous year precipitation, the moist and wet meadow communities were most sensitive to current growing season soil moisture, and the snowbed community was most sensitive to date of snow release. Because of the relatively high amount of variation attributable to variables related to precipitation, changes in precipitation regimes that may occur in alpine ecosystems will likely result in changes in phytomass that are detectable with clip-harvest methods. 62 refs., 2 figs., 6 tabs.

  12. Remote sensing of interannual boreal forest NDVI in relation to climatic conditions in interior Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verbyla, David

    2015-12-01

    Climate has warmed substantially in interior Alaska and several remote sensing studies have documented a decadal-scale decline in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) termed a ‘browning trend’. Reduced summer soil moisture due to changing climatic factors such as earlier springs, less snowpack, and summer drought may reduce boreal productivity and NDVI. However, the relative importance of these climatic factors is poorly understood in boreal interior Alaska. In this study, I used the remotely sensed peak summer NDVI as an index of boreal productivity at 250 m pixel size from 2000 to 2014. Maximum summer NDVI was related to last day of spring snow, early spring snow water equivalent (SWE), and a summer moisture index. There was no significant correlation between early spring SWE and peak summer NDVI. There was a significant correlation between the last day of spring snow and peak summer NDVI, but only for a few higher elevation stations. This was likely due to snowmelt occurring later at higher elevations, thus having a greater effect on summer soil moisture relative to lower elevation sites. For most of boreal interior Alaska, summer drought was likely the dominant control on peak summer NDVI and this effect may persist for several years. Peak summer NDVI declined at all 26 stations after the 2004 drought, and the decline persisted for 2 years at all stations. Due to the shallow rooting zone of most boreal plants, even cool and moist sites at lower elevations are likely vulnerable to drought. For example the peak summer NDVI response following the 2004 drought was similar for adjacent cold and warm watershed basins. Thus, if frequent and severe summer droughts continue, moisture stress effects are likely to be widespread and prolonged throughout most of interior boreal Alaska, including relatively cool, moist sites regardless of spring snowpack conditions or spring phenology.

  13. Sensitivity of global tropical climate to land surface processes: Mean state and interannual variability

    SciTech Connect

    Ma, Hsi-Yen; Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Xue, Yongkang

    2013-03-01

    This study examines the sensitivity of global tropical climate to land surface processes (LSP) using an atmospheric general circulation model both uncoupled (with prescribed SSTs) and coupled to an oceanic general circulation model. The emphasis is on the interactive soil moisture and vegetation biophysical processes, which have first order influence on the surface energy and water budgets. The sensitivity to those processes is represented by the differences between model simulations, in which two land surface schemes are considered: 1) a simple land scheme that specifies surface albedo and soil moisture availability, and 2) the Simplified Simple Biosphere Model (SSiB), which allows for consideration of interactive soil moisture and vegetation biophysical process. Observational datasets are also employed to assess the reality of model-revealed sensitivity. The mean state sensitivity to different LSP is stronger in the coupled mode, especially in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, seasonal cycle of SSTs in the equatorial Pacific, as well as ENSO frequency, amplitude, and locking to the seasonal cycle of SSTs are significantly modified and more realistic with SSiB. This outstanding sensitivity of the atmosphere-ocean system develops through changes in the intensity of equatorial Pacific trades modified by convection over land. Our results further demonstrate that the direct impact of land-atmosphere interactions on the tropical climate is modified by feedbacks associated with perturbed oceanic conditions ("indirect effect" of LSP). The magnitude of such indirect effect is strong enough to suggest that comprehensive studies on the importance of LSP on the global climate have to be made in a system that allows for atmosphere-ocean interactions.

  14. Seasonal and Interannual Trends in Largest Cholera Endemic Megacity: Water Sustainability - Climate - Health Challenges in Dhaka, Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akanda, Ali S.; Jutla, Antarpreet; Faruque, Abu S. G.; Huq, Anwar; Colwell, Rita R.

    2014-05-01

    The last three decades of surveillance data shows a drastic increase of cholera prevalence in the largest cholera-endemic city in the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh. Emerging megacities in the region, especially those located in coastal areas also remain vulnerable to large scale drivers of cholera outbreaks. However, there has not been any systematic study on linking long-term disease trends with related changes in natural or societal variables. Here, we analyze the 30-year dynamics of urban cholera prevalence in Dhaka with changes in climatic or anthropogenic forcings: regional hydrology, flooding, water usage, changes in distribution systems, population growth and density in urban settlements, as well as shifting climate patterns and frequency of natural disasters. An interesting change is observed in the seasonal trends of cholera prevalence; while an endemic upward trend is seen in the dry season, the post-monsoon trend is epidemic in nature. In addition, the trend in the pre-monsoon dry season is significantly stronger than the post-monsoon wet season; and thus spring is becoming the dominant cholera season of the year. Evidence points to growing urbanization and rising population in unplanned settlements along the city peripheries. The rapid pressure of growth has led to an unsustainable and potentially disastrous situation with negligible-to-poor water and sanitation systems compounded by changing climatic patterns and increasing number of extreme weather events. Growing water scarcity in the dry season and lack of sustainable water and sanitation infrastructure for urban settlements have increased endemicity of cholera outbreaks in spring, while record flood events and prolonged post-monsoon inundation have contributed to increased epidemic outbreaks in fall. We analyze our findings with the World Health Organization recommended guidelines and investigate large scale water sustainability challenges in the context of climatic and anthropogenic changes in the

  15. Effects of Interannual Climate Variability in Secondary Forests and Crops Under Traditional and Alternative Shifting Cultivation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sa, T. D.; Guild, L. S.; Carvalho, C. J.; Potter, C. S.; Wickel, A. J.; Brienza, S.; Kato, M. A.; Kato, O.

    2002-12-01

    Regenerating forests play an important role in long-term carbon sequestration and sustainable landuse as they act as potentially important carbon and nutrient sinks during the shifting agriculture fallow period. The long-term functioning of secondary forests (capoeira) is increasingly threatened by a shortening fallow period during shifting cultivation due to demographic pressures and associated increased vulnerability to severe climatic events. Declining productivity and functioning of fallow forests of shifting cultivation combined with progressive loss of nutrients by successive burning and cropping activities has resulted in declining agricultural productivity. In addition to the effects of intense land use practices, droughts associated with El Ni¤o events are becoming more frequent and severe in moist tropical forests and negative effects on capoeira productivity could be considerable. In Igarape-Acu (near Belem, Para), we hypothesize that experimental alternative landuse/clearing practices (mulching and fallow vegetation improvement by planting with fast-growing leguminous tree species) may make capoeira and crops more resilient to the effects of agricultural pressures and drought through 1) increased biomass, soil organic matter and associated increase in soil water storage, and nutrient retention and 2) greater rooting depth of trees planted for fallow improvement. This experimental practice (mechanized chop-and-mulch with fallow improvement) has resulted in increased soil moisture during the cropping phase, reduced loss of nutrients and organic matter, and higher rates of secondary-forest biomass accumulation. We present preliminary data on water relations during the dry season of 2001 in capoeira and crops for both traditional slash-and-burn and alternative chop-and-mulch practices. These data will be used to test IKONOS data for the detection of moisture status differences. The principal goal of the research is to determine the extent to which capoeira

  16. Evaluating Inter-Annual Climate Variability of Nitrogen Wet Deposition in the United States Using Wavelet Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nergui, T.; Thomas, N.; Liu, M.; Lamb, B. K.; Adam, J. C.; Chung, S. H.

    2012-12-01

    Human activities, primarily agricultural practices and fossil fuel combustion, have caused a significant increase in nitrogen (N) emissions into the atmosphere over the last 150 years. The increase in emission subsequently leads to elevated ozone concentration, haze, increased acid rain and N deposition at local and regional scales. Many ecosystems in the US are naturally N limited. These regions are highly vulnerable to increased N deposition which can lead to irreversible changes in biodiversity richness and composition of the ecosystems. Through the impact on atmospheric chemistry and scavenging by precipitation, climate variability can play a major role on N deposition rates. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Northern Annular Mode/Arctic Oscillation (NAM/AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA) indices are the key climate indices that characterize the climate in the contiguous US at inter-annual timescale. Here, we identify dominant periodic components (signal) in the N wet deposition and the climate index timeseries and examine their correlations and coherences using wavelet analysis. Seasonal precipitation and nitrogen (ammonium and nitrate) wet deposition data from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP), National Trends Network (NTN) for 87 sites across the United States are used for the study. The sites were selected based on data continuity of 21 years or more and NADP criteria for valid precipitation and wet deposition data. Precipitation data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are also used to replicate and validate the general features of climate variability effects in different regions of US. Initial analysis reveals nitrate wet deposition has a dominant 1-4 year periodicity while ammonium wet deposition has a shorter periodicity (about 0.5-2 year) during 1979 to 2011. Precipitation and total N wet deposition are most correlated in the Great Plains

  17. Integrating interannual climate variability forecasts into weather-indexed crop insurance. The case of Malawi, Kenya and Tanzania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vicarelli, M.; Giannini, A.; Osgood, D.

    2009-12-01

    possible payouts using historical precipitation data and analyzed the differences between years with different ENSO states from 1961 to 2005; (ii) we applied Monte Carlo methods to simulate precipitation distributions in each location and calculated the mean and variance of payouts associated to different ENSO states. The results obtained from historical precipitation data indicate that more abundant rainfall reduces payouts and the risk of loan default during La Niña in southern Kenya and Malawi, during El Niño in Tanzania. The results of the Monte Carlo simulations confirm our findings. Our results suggest that re-insurance schemes could be successfully designed to exploit the anti-correlation patterns related to interannual climate variability for different regions in Africa. Moreover, the exploratory framework presented can potentially be refined applied to other regions (e.g. Central and Latin America).

  18. Recent, unprecedented, arctic ozone losses: climate change or large interannual variability?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rieder, H. E.; Polvani, L. M.

    2012-04-01

    The record ozone loss over the Arctic in the spring of 2011 [e.g., Manney et al., 2011] highlights the importance of a detailed understanding of the connection between cold polar temperatures, polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) and column ozone. Several studies have analyzed the empirical relationship between PSC volume (Vpsc) and ozone loss in the Arctic [e.g., Rex et al., 2006], and put forward the hypothesis that the coldest Arctic winters are getting colder and therefore anomalous ozone losses in the Arctic are likely to increase in the coming decades. In the present study we analyze trends and variability in polar temperatures, Vpsc and column ozone, using both reanalysis products (ERA40, MERRA) and numerical model output (from selected models participating in the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation Activity). Beyond considering mean values, we employ a variety of statistical measures for extremes (i.e., high quantiles) in order to identify possible changes in the frequency distribution of polar temperatures and Vpsc, and attempt to determine whether the recent occurrences of record ozone loss are indicative of statistically significant trends or simply a reflection of large natural variability.

  19. Climate and Developmental Plasticity: Interannual Variability in Grapevine Leaf Morphology1[OPEN

    PubMed Central

    Li, Darren Y.; Woodford, Quaneisha L.; Yu, Tommy T.

    2016-01-01

    The shapes of leaves are dynamic, changing over evolutionary time between species, within a single plant producing different shaped leaves at successive nodes, during the development of a single leaf as it allometrically expands, and in response to the environment. Notably, strong correlations between the dissection and size of leaves with temperature and precipitation exist in both the paleorecord and extant populations. Yet, a morphometric model integrating evolutionary, developmental, and environmental effects on leaf shape is lacking. Here, we continue a morphometric analysis of >5,500 leaves representing 270 grapevines of multiple Vitis species between two growing seasons. Leaves are paired one-to-one and vine-to-vine accounting for developmental context, between growing seasons. Linear discriminant analysis reveals shape features that specifically define growing season, regardless of species or developmental context. The shape feature, a more pronounced distal sinus, is associated with the colder, drier growing season, consistent with patterns observed in the paleorecord. We discuss the implications of such plasticity in a long-lived woody perennial, such as grapevine (Vitis spp.), with respect to the evolution and functionality of plant morphology and changes in climate. PMID:26826220

  20. Murres, capelin and ocean climate: Inter-annual associations across a decadal shift

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Regular, P.M.; Shuhood, F.; Power, T.; Montevecchi, W.A.; Robertson, G.J.; Ballam, D.; Piatt, J.F.; Nakashima, B.

    2009-01-01

    To ensure energy demands for reproduction are met, it is essential that marine birds breed during periods of peak food availability. We examined associations of the breeding chronology of common murres (Uria aalge) with the timing of the inshore arrival of their primary prey, capelin (Mallotus villosus) from 1980 to 2006 across a period of pervasive change in the Northwest Atlantic ecosystem. We also assessed the influence of ocean temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; an index of winter climate and oceanography) on these interactions. We found a lagged linear relationship between variations in murre breeding chronology and the timing of capelin arrival in the previous year. On a decadal level, we found a non-linear threshold relationship between ocean temperature and the timing of capelin arrival and murre breeding. Centennially anomalous cold water temperatures in 1991 generated a marked shift in the timing of capelin spawning inshore and murre breeding, delaying both by more than 2 weeks. By the mid-1990s, ocean temperatures returned to pre-perturbation levels, whereas the temporal breeding responses of capelin and murres were delayed for a decade or more. Oceanographic conditions (temperature, NAO) were poor predictors of the timing of capelin arrival inshore in the current year compared to the previous one. Our findings suggest that knowledge of the timing of capelin availability in the previous year provides a robust cue for the long-lived murres, allowing them to achieve temporal overlap between breeding and peak capelin availability. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008.

  1. Climate and the individual: inter-annual variation in the autumnal activity of the European badger (Meles meles).

    PubMed

    Noonan, Michael J; Markham, Andrew; Newman, Chris; Trigoni, Niki; Buesching, Christina D; Ellwood, Stephen A; Macdonald, David W

    2014-01-01

    We establish intra-individual and inter-annual variability in European badger (Meles meles) autumnal nightly activity in relation to fine-scale climatic variables, using tri-axial accelerometry. This contributes further to understanding of causality in the established interaction between weather conditions and population dynamics in this species. Modelling found that measures of daylight, rain/humidity, and soil temperature were the most supported predictors of ACTIVITY, in both years studied. In 2010, the drier year, the most supported model included the SOLAR*RH interaction, RAIN, and 30cmTEMP (w = 0.557), while in 2012, a wetter year, the most supported model included the SOLAR*RH interaction, and the RAIN*10cmTEMP (w = 0.999). ACTIVITY also differed significantly between individuals. In the 2012 autumn study period, badgers with the longest per noctem activity subsequently exhibited higher Body Condition Indices (BCI) when recaptured. In contrast, under drier 2010 conditions, badgers in good BCI engaged in less per noctem activity, while badgers with poor BCI were the most active. When compared on the same calendar dates, to control for night length, duration of mean badger nightly activity was longer (9.5 hrs ±3.3 SE) in 2010 than in 2012 (8.3 hrs ±1.9 SE). In the wetter year, increasing nightly activity was associated with net-positive energetic gains (from BCI), likely due to better foraging conditions. In a drier year, with greater potential for net-negative energy returns, individual nutritional state proved crucial in modifying activity regimes; thus we emphasise how a 'one size fits all' approach should not be applied to ecological responses. PMID:24465376

  2. Climate and the Individual: Inter-Annual Variation in the Autumnal Activity of the European Badger (Meles meles)

    PubMed Central

    Noonan, Michael J.; Markham, Andrew; Newman, Chris; Trigoni, Niki; Buesching, Christina D.; Ellwood, Stephen A.; Macdonald, David W.

    2014-01-01

    We establish intra-individual and inter-annual variability in European badger (Meles meles) autumnal nightly activity in relation to fine-scale climatic variables, using tri-axial accelerometry. This contributes further to understanding of causality in the established interaction between weather conditions and population dynamics in this species. Modelling found that measures of daylight, rain/humidity, and soil temperature were the most supported predictors of ACTIVITY, in both years studied. In 2010, the drier year, the most supported model included the SOLAR*RH interaction, RAIN, and30cmTEMP (w = 0.557), while in 2012, a wetter year, the most supported model included the SOLAR*RH interaction, and the RAIN*10cmTEMP (w = 0.999). ACTIVITY also differed significantly between individuals. In the 2012 autumn study period, badgers with the longest per noctem activity subsequently exhibited higher Body Condition Indices (BCI) when recaptured. In contrast, under drier 2010 conditions, badgers in good BCI engaged in less per noctem activity, while badgers with poor BCI were the most active. When compared on the same calendar dates, to control for night length, duration of mean badger nightly activity was longer (9.5 hrs ±3.3 SE) in 2010 than in 2012 (8.3 hrs ±1.9 SE). In the wetter year, increasing nightly activity was associated with net-positive energetic gains (from BCI), likely due to better foraging conditions. In a drier year, with greater potential for net-negative energy returns, individual nutritional state proved crucial in modifying activity regimes; thus we emphasise how a ‘one size fits all’ approach should not be applied to ecological responses. PMID:24465376

  3. Sensitivity of stream flow droughts, water shortage and water stress events to ENSO driven inter-annual climate variability at the global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veldkamp, Ted I. E.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Ward, Philip J.

    2014-05-01

    Governments and institutions managing water resources have to adapt constantly to regional drought, water shortage and water stress conditions, being caused by climate change, socio-economic developments and/or climate variability. Taking into account the impact of climate variability is important as in some regions it may outweigh long-term climate change or socio-economic developments, especially on a time scale of a few years up to a few decades. As governments and water management institutions apply planning horizons up to a decade with respect to management of adaptation strategies, inter-annual climate variability is especially relevant. A number of studies have estimated the impacts of climate variability on stream flow droughts on a local, continental or global scale. Others have focused on the role of long term climate change and socio-economic trends on blue water availability, shortage and stress. However, a global assessment of the influence of inter-annual climate variability on stream flow droughts, blue water availability, shortage and stress together has not yet been carried out, despite its importance for adaptation planning. To address this issue, we assessed the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on stream flow droughts, blue water availability, and shortage and stress events at the global scale. Within this contribution we focused on El Nino Southern Oscillation's (ENSO) impact as ENSO is the most dominant source of inter-annual climate variability, impacting climate and society. We carried out this assessment through the following steps: (1) used daily discharge and run-off time-series (0.5º x 0.5º) of three WATCH forced global hydrological models (WaterGAP, PCR-GLOBWB, and STREAM); (2) in combination with time-series of population counts and monthly water demands we calculated monthly and yearly stream flow drought, water availability, water shortage and water stress per Food Producing Unit (FPU) for the period 1960-2000; and (3

  4. Use of the HadGEM2 climate-chemistry model to investigate interannual variability in methane sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayman, Garry; O'Connor, Fiona; Clark, Douglas; Huntingford, Chris; Gedney, Nicola

    2013-04-01

    The global mean atmospheric concentration of methane (CH4) has more than doubled during the industrial era [1] and now constitutes ? 20% of the anthropogenic climate forcing by greenhouse gases [2]. The globally-averaged CH4 growth rate, derived from surface measurements, has fallen significantly from a high of 16 ppb yr-1 in the late 1970s/early 1980s and was close to zero between 1999 and 2006 [1]. This overall period of declining or low growth was however interspersed with years of positive growth-rate anomalies (e.g., in 1991-1992, 1998-1999 and 2002-2003). Since 2007, renewed growth has been evident [1, 3], with the largest increases observed over polar northern latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere in 2007 and in the tropics in 2008. The observed inter-annual variability in atmospheric methane concentrations and the associated changes in growth rates have variously been attributed to changes in different methane sources and sinks [1, 4]. In this paper, we report results from runs of the HadGEM2 climate-chemistry model [5] using year- and month-specific emission datasets. The HadGEM2 model includes the comprehensive atmospheric chemistry and aerosol package, the UK Chemistry Aerosol community model (UKCA, http://www.ukca.ac.uk/wiki/index.php). The Standard Tropospheric Chemistry scheme was selected for this work. This chemistry scheme simulates the Ox, HOx and NOx chemical cycles and the oxidation of CO, methane, ethane and propane. Year- and month-specific emission datasets were generated for the period from 1997 to 2009 for the emitted species in the chemistry scheme (CH4, CO, NOx, HCHO, C2H6, C3H8, CH3CHO, CH3CHOCH3). The approach adopted varied depending on the source sector: Anthropogenic: The emissions from anthropogenic sources were based on decadal-averaged emission inventories compiled by [6] for the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP). These were then used to derive year-specific emission datasets by scaling the

  5. Evaluation of the inter-annual variability of stratospheric chemical composition in chemistry-climate models using ground-based multi species time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poulain, V.; Bekki, S.; Marchand, M.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Khodri, M.; Lefèvre, F.; Dhomse, S.; Bodeker, G. E.; Toumi, R.; De Maziere, M.; Pommereau, J.-P.; Pazmino, A.; Goutail, F.; Plummer, D.; Rozanov, E.; Mancini, E.; Akiyoshi, H.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Austin, J.

    2016-07-01

    The variability of stratospheric chemical composition occurs on a broad spectrum of timescales, ranging from day to decades. A large part of the variability appears to be driven by external forcings such as volcanic aerosols, solar activity, halogen loading, levels of greenhouse gases (GHG), and modes of climate variability (quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)). We estimate the contributions of different external forcings to the interannual variability of stratospheric chemical composition and evaluate how well 3-D chemistry-climate models (CCMs) can reproduce the observed response-forcing relationships. We carry out multivariate regression analyses on long time series of observed and simulated time series of several traces gases in order to estimate the contributions of individual forcings and unforced variability to their internannual variability. The observations are typically decadal time series of ground-based data from the international Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) and the CCM simulations are taken from the CCMVal-2 REF-B1 simulations database. The chemical species considered are column O3, HCl, NO2, and N2O. We check the consistency between observations and model simulations in terms of the forced and internal components of the total interannual variability (externally forced variability and internal variability) and identify the driving factors in the interannual variations of stratospheric chemical composition over NDACC measurement sites. Overall, there is a reasonably good agreement between regression results from models and observations regarding the externally forced interannual variability. A much larger fraction of the observed and modelled interannual variability is explained by external forcings in the tropics than in the extratropics, notably in polar regions. CCMs are able to reproduce the amplitudes of responses in chemical composition to specific external forcings

  6. Seasonal and Inter-annual Variation in Wood Production in Tropical Trees on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, is Related to Local Climate and Species Functional Traits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cushman, K.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Kellner, J. R.; Wright, S. J.; Condit, R.; Detto, M.; Tribble, C. M.

    2015-12-01

    Tropical forest carbon budgets play a major role in global carbon dynamics, but the responses of tropical forests to current and future inter-annual climatic variation remains highly uncertain. Better predictions of future tropical forest carbon fluxes require an improved understanding of how different species of tropical trees respond to changes in climate at seasonal and inter-annual temporal scales. We installed dendrometer bands on a size-stratified sample of 2000 trees in old growth forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, a moist lowland forest that experiences an annual dry season of approximately four months. Tree diameters were measured at the beginning and end of the rainy season since 2008. Additionally, we recorded the canopy illumination level, canopy intactness, and liana coverage of all trees during each census. We used linear mixed-effects models to evaluate how tree growth was related to seasonal and interannual variation in local climate, tree condition, and species identity, and how species identity effects related to tree functional traits. Climatic variables considered included precipitation, solar radiation, soil moisture, and climatological water deficit, and were all calculated from high-quality on-site measurements. Functional traits considered included wood density, maximum adult stature, deciduousness, and drought tolerance. We found that annual wood production was positively related to water availability, with higher growth in wetter years. Species varied in their response to seasonal water availability, with some species showing more pronounced reduction of growth during the dry season when water availability is limited. Interspecific variation in seasonal and interannual growth patterns was related to life-history strategies and species functional traits. The finding of higher growth in wetter years is consistent with previous tree ring studies conducted on a small subset of species with reliable annual rings. Together with previous

  7. Use of the HadGEM2 climate-chemistry model to investigate interannual variability in methane sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayman, Garry; O'Connor, Fiona; Clark, Douglas; Huntingford, Chris; Gedney, Nicola

    2013-04-01

    The global mean atmospheric concentration of methane (CH4) has more than doubled during the industrial era [1] and now constitutes ? 20% of the anthropogenic climate forcing by greenhouse gases [2]. The globally-averaged CH4 growth rate, derived from surface measurements, has fallen significantly from a high of 16 ppb yr-1 in the late 1970s/early 1980s and was close to zero between 1999 and 2006 [1]. This overall period of declining or low growth was however interspersed with years of positive growth-rate anomalies (e.g., in 1991-1992, 1998-1999 and 2002-2003). Since 2007, renewed growth has been evident [1, 3], with the largest increases observed over polar northern latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere in 2007 and in the tropics in 2008. The observed inter-annual variability in atmospheric methane concentrations and the associated changes in growth rates have variously been attributed to changes in different methane sources and sinks [1, 4]. In this paper, we report results from runs of the HadGEM2 climate-chemistry model [5] using year- and month-specific emission datasets. The HadGEM2 model includes the comprehensive atmospheric chemistry and aerosol package, the UK Chemistry Aerosol community model (UKCA, http://www.ukca.ac.uk/wiki/index.php). The Standard Tropospheric Chemistry scheme was selected for this work. This chemistry scheme simulates the Ox, HOx and NOx chemical cycles and the oxidation of CO, methane, ethane and propane. Year- and month-specific emission datasets were generated for the period from 1997 to 2009 for the emitted species in the chemistry scheme (CH4, CO, NOx, HCHO, C2H6, C3H8, CH3CHO, CH3CHOCH3). The approach adopted varied depending on the source sector: Anthropogenic: The emissions from anthropogenic sources were based on decadal-averaged emission inventories compiled by [6] for the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP). These were then used to derive year-specific emission datasets by scaling the

  8. Interannual variation in leaf photosynthetic capacity during summer in relation to nitrogen, leaf mass per area and climate within a Fagus crenata crown on Naeba Mountain, Japan.

    PubMed

    Iio, Atsuhiro; Yokoyama, Akira; Takano, Masamitsu; Nakamura, Tetsurou; Fukasawa, Hisakazu; Nose, Yachiho; Kakubari, Yoshitaka

    2008-09-01

    During the summers (July and August) of 2002-2005, we measured interannual variation in maximum carboxylation rate (V(cmax)) within a Fagus crenata Blume crown in relation to climate variables such as air temperature, daytime vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and daily photosynthetic photon flux, leaf nitrogen per unit area (N(a)) and leaf mass per unit area (LMA). Climatic conditions in the summers of 2002-2004 differed markedly, with warm and dry atmospheric conditions in 2002, cool, humid and cloudy conditions in 2003, and warm clear conditions in 2004. Conditions in summer 2005 were intermediate between those of summers 2002 and 2003, and similar to recent (8-year) means. In July, marked interannual variation in V(cmax) was mainly observed in leaves in the high-light environment (relative photon flux > 50%) within the crown. At the crown top, V(cmax) was about twofold higher in 2002 than in 2003, and V(cmax) values in 2004 and 2005 were intermediate between those in 2002 and 2003. In August, although interannual variation in V(cmax) among the years 2003, 2004 and 2005 was less, marked variation between 2002 and the other study years was evident. Multiple regression analysis of V(cmax) against the climate variables revealed that VPD of the previous 10-30 days had a significant influence on variability in V(cmax). Neither N(a), LMA nor leaf CO(2) conductance from the stomata to the carboxylation site explained the variability in V(cmax). Our results indicate that the long-term climatic response of V(cmax) should be considered when estimating forest carbon gain across the year.

  9. Impact of extreme inter-annual climatic differences on the net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange of a Sitka spruce forest.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saunders, Matthew; Tobin, Brian; Gioria, Margherita; Benanti, Giuseppe; Cacciotti, Erica; Osborne, Bruce

    2013-04-01

    Sitka spruce forest plantations are well suited to growing in the temperate climate of Ireland and represent some of the most productive forest stands in Europe, assimilating between 8-10 t C ha-1 yr-1. Temperature and precipitation are key drivers of the global carbon cycle and both inter-annual climatic variability and extreme climatic events have been shown to influence rates of carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas mitigation potential within terrestrial biological ecosystems. The impacts of the timing, intensity and duration of extreme climatic events, characterised by major differences in rainfall and minimum temperatures, were assessed using long-term eddy covariance measurements of net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (2002-2012). Precipitation in 2009 and 2010 was 1156 mm and 741 mm, respectively and was approximately 35% higher and 16% lower than the 30 year mean precipitation for this region (1978-2007). The difference in precipitation in 2009 was not uniformly distributed throughout the year and occurred largely during the growing season (April-August). The mean annual air temperature in 2010 (8.2°C) was also 1.7°C lower than the 30 year mean, and was characterised by a number of extended sub-zero temperature events during the winter months. Despite these differences, annual estimates of NEE were remarkably similar between years, ranging between 8.14 ± 1.94 t C ha yr-1 and 8.18 ± 0.88 t C ha yr-1 in 2009 and 2010 respectively. However, the measured NEE in both 2009 and 2010 were approximately 6% lower than the long-term mean measured at this site (2002-2008; 8.62 ± 1.39 t C ha yr-1). The components of NEE, gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) did, however, show differences between years. In 2009, GPP was ~15% lower when compared to 2010, most likely due to a reduction in stand photosynthesis at higher irradiances during the growing season that was related to higher water availability in the surface layers of the soil

  10. Coupled ocean-atmosphere model system for studies of interannual-to-decadal climate variability over the North Pacific Basin and precipitation over the Southwestern United States

    SciTech Connect

    Lai, Chung-Chieng A.

    1997-10-01

    This is the final report of a one-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The ultimate objective of this research project is to make understanding and predicting regional climate easier. The long-term goals of this project are (1) to construct a coupled ocean-atmosphere model (COAM) system, (2) use it to explore the interannual-to-decadal climate variability over the North Pacific Basin, and (3) determine climate effects on the precipitation over the Southwestern United States. During this project life, three major tasks were completed: (1) Mesoscale ocean and atmospheric model; (2) global-coupled ocean and atmospheric modeling: completed the coupling of LANL POP global ocean model with NCAR CCM2+ global atmospheric model; and (3) global nested-grid ocean modeling: designed the boundary interface for the nested-grid ocean models.

  11. Statistical modeling of interannual shoreline change driven by North Atlantic climate variability spanning 2000-2014 in the Bay of Biscay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robinet, A.; Castelle, B.; Idier, D.; Le Cozannet, G.; Déqué, M.; Charles, E.

    2016-08-01

    Modeling studies addressing daily to interannual coastal evolution typically relate shoreline change with waves, currents and sediment transport through complex processes and feedbacks. For wave-dominated environments, the main driver (waves) is controlled by the regional atmospheric circulation. Here a simple weather regime-driven shoreline model is developed for a 15-year shoreline dataset (2000-2014) collected at Truc Vert beach, Bay of Biscay, SW France. In all, 16 weather regimes (four per season) are considered. The centroids and occurrences are computed using the ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses, applying k-means and EOF methods to the anomalies of the 500-hPa geopotential height over the North Atlantic Basin. The weather regime-driven shoreline model explains 70% of the observed interannual shoreline variability. The application of a proven wave-driven equilibrium shoreline model to the same period shows that both models have similar skills at the interannual scale. Relation between the weather regimes and the wave climate in the Bay of Biscay is investigated and the primary weather regimes impacting shoreline change are identified. For instance, the winter zonal regime characterized by a strengthening of the pressure gradient between the Iceland low and the Azores high is associated with high-energy wave conditions and is found to drive an increase in the shoreline erosion rate. The study demonstrates the predictability of interannual shoreline change from a limited number of weather regimes, which opens new perspectives for shoreline change modeling and encourages long-term shoreline monitoring programs.

  12. Interannual Variations In the Low-Degree Components of the Geopotential derived from SLR and the Connections With Geophysical/Climatic Processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, Benjamin F.; Cox, Christopher M.; Au, Andrew Y.

    2004-01-01

    Recent Satellite Laser Ranging derived long wavelength gravity time series analysis has focused to a large extent on the effects of the recent large changes in the Earth s 52, and the potential causes. However, it is difficult to determine whether there are corresponding signals in the shorter wavelength zonals from the existing SLR-derived time variable gravity results, although it appears that geophysical fluid transport is being observed. For example, the recovered J3 time series shows remarkable agreement with NCEP-derived estimates of atmospheric gravity variations. Likewise, some of the non-zonal spherical harmonic coefficient series have significant interannual signal that appears to be related to mass transport. The non-zonal degree 2 terms show reasonable correlation with atmospheric signals, as well as climatic effects such as El Nino Southern Oscillation. While the formal uncertainty of these terms is significantly higher than that for J2, it is also clear that there is useful signal to be extracted. Consequently, the SLR time series is being reprocessed to improve the time variable gravity field recovery. We will present recent updates on the J2 evolution, as well as a look at other components of the interannual variations of the gravity field, complete through degree 4, and possible geophysical and climatic causes.

  13. Persistence in recurrent geomagnetic activity and its connection with Space Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diego, P.; Storini, M.; Laurenza, M.

    2010-06-01

    Recurrent geomagnetic activity is mainly linked to the passage of interplanetary corotating solar wind structures in the near-Earth space. We studied geomagnetic recurrences for which an enhanced value of the autocorrelation coefficient exists between the data of two adjacent Bartels rotations in aa, Kp, Dst, AE time series, for the period 1954-2007, covering about 5 solar cycles (from cycle 19 to cycle 23). A new index (P), based on autocorrelation analysis, has been introduced to estimate also the duration up to seven Bartels rotations of each solar structure (or group of structures) producing geomagnetic recurrences with high autocorrelation (correlation coefficient ≥ 0.3). We could infer whether recurrent geomagnetic activity is due to successive short-lived (at least 2 Bartels rotations) or to long-lasting corotating structures (up to 7 or more Bartels rotations). Generally, time periods characterized by recurrent geomagnetic activity are longer during the descending phase of even-numbered cycles (20, 22). Nevertheless, we found that recurrences determined by long-lived interplanetary structures are detected mainly in the descending phase of cycles 19 and 23. Finally, we point out that the average levels of the computed indices during the descending phase of each solar cycle show a significant anticorrelation with the sunspot area integrated over the subsequent cycle, giving new insights for Space Climate forecast.

  14. The Inter-Annual Variability Analysis of Carbon Exchange in Low Artic Fen Uncovers The Climate Sensitivity And The Uncertainties Around Net Ecosystem Exchange Partitioning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanco, E. L.; Lund, M.; Williams, M. D.; Christensen, T. R.; Tamstorf, M. P.

    2015-12-01

    An improvement in our process-based understanding of CO2 exchanges in the Arctic, and their climate sensitivity, is critical for examining the role of tundra ecosystems in changing climates. Arctic organic carbon storage has seen increased attention in recent years due to large potential for carbon releases following thaw. Our knowledge about the exact scale and sensitivity for a phase-change of these C stocks are, however, limited. Minor variations in Gross Primary Production (GPP) and Ecosystem Respiration (Reco) driven by changes in the climate can lead to either C sink or C source states, which likely will impact the overall C cycle of the ecosystem. Eddy covariance data is usually used to partition Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) into GPP and Reco achieved by flux separation algorithms. However, different partitioning approaches lead to different estimates. as well as undefined uncertainties. The main objectives of this study are to use model-data fusion approaches to (1) determine the inter-annual variability in C source/sink strength for an Arctic fen, and attribute such variations to GPP vs Reco, (2) investigate the climate sensitivity of these processes and (3) explore the uncertainties in NEE partitioning. The intention is to elaborate on the information gathered in an existing catchment area under an extensive cross-disciplinary ecological monitoring program in low Arctic West Greenland, established under the auspices of the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring (GEM) program. The use of such a thorough long-term (7 years) dataset applied to the exploration in inter-annual variability of carbon exchange, related driving factors and NEE partition uncertainties provides a novel input into our understanding about land-atmosphere CO2 exchange.

  15. Interannual and orbital-scale climate variability in the early Miocene: Compound-specific D/H records from the Foulden Maar Diatomite, New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Andrea, W. J.; Fox, B.; Lee, D.

    2013-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is the most important interannual climate variation on Earth and has far reaching impacts on global climate. However, the behavior of ENSO over orbital timescales and under different global climate states is poorly understood and controversial. It has been proposed that ENSO behaved much differently in the past, perhaps even transitioning toward a permanent El Niño-like state. Our understanding of the ENSO response to orbital variations and the background climate state is incomplete and there are fundamental flaws in our knowledge of this important player in Earth's climate system. Here we present a 100,000-yr long compound-specific hydrogen isotope (D/H) record along with varve thickness data that document southern New Zealand (46°S, 170°E) climate in the early Miocene; the results suggest modulation of ENSO by Earth's orbital changes at precession (~22,000 year) and semiprecession (~11,000 year) timescales. Our data come from analyses of the Foulden Maar Diatomite, an annually laminated sediment sequence from an early Miocene freshwater lake in Otago, New Zealand. The diatomite contains approximately 100,000 dark-light couplets interpreted as biogenic varves, and has exquisite preservation of leaves, flowers, insects, diatom frustules and n-alkanoic acids derived from leaf waxes and algae. D/H records from n-alkanoic acids reveal large variations corresponding to precession (~22,000 yrs) and semi-precession (~11,000 yrs) timescales that reflect large paleohydrological changes. Varve thickness records reveal spectral power that exceeds the 99% confidence limit in the 3 to 7-yr band, and indicate that ENSO was an important driver of interannual climate variability in southern New Zealand during the early Miocene. We propose that the semiprecession-paced hydrologic changes represented by our compound-specific D/H record document the modulation of ENSO by variations in Earth's orbital configuration; specifically, that

  16. Large-scale climate control on the occurrence of turbid events on interannual scales in a karstified, heavily exploited karst system in northwestern France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massei, N.; Laignel, B.; Dupont, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    High-amplitude turbid episodes at water supplies can cause significant sanitary issues to populations. Owing to their hydrogeologic specificity, karst ground waters are particularly sensitive to such phenomena, involving either fast infiltration of turbid surface water or resuspension of intra-karstic sediments during flood events. In some regions, such as Upper Normandy (France), soil erosion and karst features in the chalk aquifer are at the origin of major turbid events which may result in interrupted water supply to the local populations. Thanks to a long daily turbidity time series corresponding to measurements at one major karst spring since the mid-80's, we could investigate the large-scale atmospheric circulation control on below- or above-average turbidity periods. The turbidity time-series actually display periods on pluriannual duration during which daily turbid events are more frequent and have higher amplitudes, which can not be seen on daily precipitation records. Comparison was made between annual precipitation amounts, chalk aquifer water table variations and turbidity throughout this approximately 25-year period, which showed interannual recharge periods associated to above-normal turbid conditions. We then studied the linkages between such variations and large-scale atmospheric circulation using a NOAA sea level pressure reanalysis product. A wavelet multiresolution analysis of all hydrological and climatic signals revealed common aperiodic oscillations on interannual scales and allowed identification of the large-scale, interannual-scale atmospheric pattern that was responsible for those above-normal turbid periods; this atmospheric pattern was not necessarily similar to that responsible to any individual short-term turbid event.

  17. Climatic controls of the interannual to decadal variability in Saudi Arabian dust activity: Towards the development of a seasonal prediction tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Y.; Notaro, M.; Liu, Z.; Alkolibi, F.; Fadda, E.; Bakhrjy, F.

    2013-12-01

    Atmospheric dust significantly influences the climate system, as well as human life in Saudi Arabia. Skillful seasonal prediction of dust activity with climatic variables will help prevent some negative social impacts of dust storms. Yet, the climatic regulators on Saudi Arabian dust activity remain largely unaddressed. Remote sensing and station observations show consistent seasonal cycles in Saudi Arabian dust activity, which peaks in spring and summer. The climatic controls on springtime and summertime Saudi Arabian dust activity during 1975-2010 are studied using observational and reanalysis data. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of the observed Saudi Arabian dust storm frequency shows a dominant homogeneous pattern across the country, which has distinct interannual and decadal variations, as revealed by the power spectrum. Regression and correlation analyses reveal that Saudi Arabian dust activity is largely tied to precipitation on the Arabian Peninsula in spring and northwesterly (Shamal) wind in summer. On the seasonal-interannual time scale, warm El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase (El Niño) in winter-to-spring inhibits spring dust activity by increasing the precipitation over the Rub'al Khali Desert, a major dust source region on the southern Arabian Peninsula; warm ENSO and warm Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) in winter-to-spring favor less summer dust activity by producing anomalously low sea-level pressure over eastern north Africa and Arabian Peninsula, which leads to the reduced Shamal wind speed. The decadal variation in dust activity is likely associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which impacts Sahel rainfall and North African dust, and likely dust transport to Saudi Arabia. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and tropical Indian Ocean SST also have influence on the decadal variation in Saudi Arabian dust activity, by altering precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula and summer Shamal wind speed. Using eastern

  18. Divergence maintained by climatic selection despite recurrent gene flow: a case study of Castanopsis carlesii (Fagaceae).

    PubMed

    Sun, Ye; Surget-Groba, Yann; Gao, Shaoxiong

    2016-09-01

    Local adaptation to different environments has the potential to maintain divergence between populations despite recurrent gene flow and is an important driver for generating biological diversity. In this study, we investigate the role of adaptation in the maintenance of two parapatric varieties of a forest tree. We used sequence variation of chloroplastic DNA and restriction site-associated DNA to investigate the genetic structure of two varieties of Castanopsis carlesii in subtropical China and relate it to climatic variation. We used niche reconstruction methods to investigate niche differentiation between the two varieties and to estimate the past distribution of this species. A deep divergence was observed between the two varieties, but evidence of introgression and genetic admixture was detected in two phenotypically and geographically intermediate populations. Niche reconstruction suggests that the distribution of the two varieties was disjunct during periods of global cooling and that the two varieties occupy significantly different niches. The genetic structure was mainly driven by environmental factors, and 13 outlier loci under divergent selection were correlated with climatic variation. These results suggest that the two varieties evolved in allopatry and came back into secondary contact after the last glacial maximum and that they are an evolutionary example of divergence maintained by climatic selection despite recurrent gene flow. PMID:27447352

  19. Divergence maintained by climatic selection despite recurrent gene flow: a case study of Castanopsis carlesii (Fagaceae).

    PubMed

    Sun, Ye; Surget-Groba, Yann; Gao, Shaoxiong

    2016-09-01

    Local adaptation to different environments has the potential to maintain divergence between populations despite recurrent gene flow and is an important driver for generating biological diversity. In this study, we investigate the role of adaptation in the maintenance of two parapatric varieties of a forest tree. We used sequence variation of chloroplastic DNA and restriction site-associated DNA to investigate the genetic structure of two varieties of Castanopsis carlesii in subtropical China and relate it to climatic variation. We used niche reconstruction methods to investigate niche differentiation between the two varieties and to estimate the past distribution of this species. A deep divergence was observed between the two varieties, but evidence of introgression and genetic admixture was detected in two phenotypically and geographically intermediate populations. Niche reconstruction suggests that the distribution of the two varieties was disjunct during periods of global cooling and that the two varieties occupy significantly different niches. The genetic structure was mainly driven by environmental factors, and 13 outlier loci under divergent selection were correlated with climatic variation. These results suggest that the two varieties evolved in allopatry and came back into secondary contact after the last glacial maximum and that they are an evolutionary example of divergence maintained by climatic selection despite recurrent gene flow.

  20. Climatic controls on the interannual to decadal variability in Saudi Arabian dust activity: Toward the development of a seasonal dust prediction model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Yan; Notaro, Michael; Liu, Zhengyu; Wang, Fuyao; Alkolibi, Fahad; Fadda, Eyad; Bakhrjy, Fawzieh

    2015-03-01

    The observed climatic controls on springtime and summertime Saudi Arabian dust activities during 1975-2012 are analyzed, leading to development of a seasonal dust prediction model. According to empirical orthogonal function analysis, dust storm frequency exhibits a dominantly homogeneous pattern across Saudi Arabia, with distinct interannual and decadal variability. The previously identified positive trend in remotely sensed aerosol optical depth since 2000 is shown to be a segment of the decadal oscillation in dust activity, according to long-duration station record. Regression and correlation analyses reveal that the interannual variability in Saudi Arabian dust storm frequency is regulated by springtime rainfall across the Arabian Peninsula and summertime Shamal wind intensity. The key drivers of Saudi Arabian dust storm variability are identified. Winter-to-spring La Niña enhances subsequent spring dust activity by decreasing rainfall across the country's primary dust source region, the Rub' al Khali Desert. A relatively cool tropical Indian Ocean favors frequent summer dust storms by producing an anomalously anticyclonic circulation over the central Arabian Peninsula, which enhances the Shamal wind. Decadal variability in Saudi Arabian dust storm frequency is associated with North African rainfall and Sahel vegetation, which regulate African dust emissions and transport to Saudi Arabia. Mediterranean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also regulate decadal dust variability, likely through their influence on Sahel rainfall and Shamal intensity. Using antecedent-accumulated rainfall over the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa, and Mediterranean SSTs, as low-frequency predictors, and tropical eastern Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean SSTs as high-frequency predictors, Saudi Arabia's seasonal dust activity is well predicted.

  1. Inter-annual to inter-decadal streamflow variability in Quebec and Ontario in relation to dominant large-scale climate indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nalley, D.; Adamowski, J.; Khalil, B.; Biswas, A.

    2016-05-01

    The impacts of large-scale climate oscillations on hydrological systems and their variability have been documented in different parts of the world. Since hydroclimatic data are known to exhibit non-stationary characteristics, spectral analyses such as wavelet transforms are very useful in extracting time-frequency information from such data. As Canadian studies, particularly those of regions east of the Prairies, using wavelet transform-based methods to draw links between relevant climate indices [e.g., the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)] and streamflow variability are not common, this study aims to analyze such relationships for the southern regions of Quebec and Ontario. Monthly and annual streamflow data with a record length of 55 years were used to capture streamflow variability at intra-annual, inter-annual and inter-decadal scales. The continuous wavelet transform spectra of monthly streamflow data revealed consistent significant 6- and 12-month periodicities, which are likely associated with strong seasonality factors. Its annual counterparts showed four different significant periodicities: up to 4 years, 4-6 years, 6-8 years, and greater than 8 years - all of which occurred after the late 1960s/early 1970s. Wavelet coherence analyses show that the influence of ENSO and NAO at the inter-annual scale occurs at 2-6 year periodicities, and the influence of PDO occur at periodicities up to 8 years and exceeding 16 years. Correlations between these climate indices and streamflow were computed to determine the time delay of streamflow response to the influence of ENSO, NAO, and PDO. The lag times ranged from 6-48 months (for monthly data) and 1-4 years (for annual data). This research contributes to our understanding of streamflow variability over the southern parts of Quebec and Ontario, and the role of ENSO, NAO, and PDO phenomena on this variability. These relationships can

  2. Modelling the interannual variability (1979-2012) of the Mediterranean open-sea deep convection using a coupled regional climate system model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Somot, Samuel; Testor, Pierre; Durrieu de Madron, Xavier; Houpert, Loic; Herrmann, Marine; Dubois, Clotilde; Sevault, Florence

    2013-04-01

    The North-Western Mediterranean Sea is known as one of the only place in the world where open-sea deep convection occurs (often up to more than 2000m) with the formation of the Western Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW). This phenomena is mostly driven by local preconditioning of the water column and strong buoyancy losses during Winter. At the event scale, the WMDW formation is characterized by different phases (preconditioning, strong mixing, restratification and spreading), intense air-sea interaction and strong meso-scale activity but, on a longer time scale, it also shows a large interannual variability and may be strongly affected by climate change with impact on the regional biogeochemistry. Therefore simulating and understanding the temporal variability of the North-Western Mediterranean open-sea deep convection is considered as quite a challenging task for the ocean and climate modelling community. Achieving such a goal requires to work with high resolution models for the ocean and the atmosphere interacting freely and to run long-term and temporally homogeneous simulations with a realistic chronology. In agreement with this statement, we developed at Meteo-France / CNRM a Mediterranean Regional Climate System Model (RCSM) that includes high-resolution representation of the regional atmosphere, land surface, rivers and ocean. The various components are respectively ALADIN (50 km), ISBA (50 km), TRIP (50 km) and NEMO-MED8 (10 km). All the components are interactively coupled daily and a simulation over the period 1979-2012 has been performed using the atmosphere ERA-Interim reanalysis and the ocean NEMOVAR1° reanalysis as 3D lateral-boundary conditions. Spectral nudging technique is applied in the atmosphere. We first evaluate the ability of this model to simulate some of the observed WMDW formation events (air-sea flux, timing, water mass characteristics, deep water formation rate) thanks to the large observational efforts recently carried out to better

  3. Interannual and seasonal dynamics, and the age, of nonstructural carbohydrate pools in the stemwood of temperate trees across a climatic gradient in New England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richardson, A. D.; Carbone, M. S.; Czimczik, C. I.; Keenan, T. F.; Schaberg, P.; Xu, X.

    2011-12-01

    Like all plants, forest trees accumulate and store surplus mobile carbon (C) compounds as resources to be used to support future growth. This can be viewed as a bet-hedging strategy, providing reserves that the tree can draw on in times of stress-e.g., following disturbance, disease, or extreme climatic events. In the context of climate change, understanding factors influencing the availability of these stored C compounds to support growth and metabolism is essential for predicting the resilience of forests to environmental stress factors. We conducted this study to investigate the role of these stored C pools in the context ecosystem C balance at time scales from days to years. At quarterly intervals over a three year period, we monitored stemwood total nonstructural carbohydrate (TNC) concentrations of the dominant tree species of New England. Work was conducted at three sites along a climatic gradient: an oak-dominated transition hardwood forest (Harvard Forest), a maple-beech-birch northern hardwood forest (Bartlett Experimental Forest), and a spruce-fir forest (Howland Forest). We observed large differences among species both in TNC concentrations, and in how the TNC pool is partitioned to different compounds (starch, sucrose, glucose, fructose, raffinose, xylose and stachyose). Within a species, however, seasonal dynamics were remarkably similar across sites. The interannual variability in maximum TNC concentrations appears to be smaller than interannual variability in annual net ecosystem exchange of CO2. With an additional set of samples, we are using the bomb radiocarbon (14C) spike to estimate the average age of the sugars and starches in the TNC pool, and relating this to factors such as size, age, and recent growth rates of each tree. Initial results suggest that these TNC pools range in age from several years to several decades old. The average ages of starch and sugar pools are related, with the starches generally being older than sugars

  4. Glacioclimatological study of perennial ice in the Fuji Ice Cave, Japan. Part 2. Interannual variation and relation to climate

    SciTech Connect

    Ohata, Tetsuo; Furukawa, Teruo; Osada, Kazuo )

    1994-08-01

    A glacioclimatological study of the interannual variation of mass of perennial ice in the Fuji Ice Cave at the foot of Mt. Fuji, in central Japan is presented. The cave is a 150-m-long lava tube located in a dense forest area at an altitude of 1120 m. It has a perennial floor ice of areas approximately 3000 m[sup 3] and mean thickness 2.8 m. Mean annual air temperature at the ground surface level is 8.4[degrees]C. Ice surface levels and air temperatures were measured 39 times from July 1984 to December 1992. Mean ice level showed a 15 cm increase from 1984 to 1989 and suddenly started to decrease from 1989 to 1992. In the increase stage, annual net balance (December to November) was similar at various points, but in the decreasing stage, the lowering of the level near the entrance was very large due to intense melting. Air temperature inside the cave at the end of the annual cycle showed a correlation to net balance of the corresponding year. Comparison of yearly net balance with meterological indices at ground level (winter and summer, annual mean air temperature and total precipitation; and number of days with strong precipitation) showed that net balance of a give year has a high correlation with the average winter air temperature anomaly of the preceding 4 yr. This is probably due to the high heat capacity of the cave system. 6 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs.

  5. Climate Change Decision Making in the Water User Community: Assessment Needs for Projections from Interannual to Multi-Decadal Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behar, D.; Adams, A.; Schneiderman, E.; Kaatz, L.

    2012-12-01

    Water managers are increasingly using climate science tools, including model output, in assessing the potential effects of climate change on their operations, infrastructure, and levels of service. The Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA), ten large metropolitan utilities providing drinking water to 43 million Americans, has developed relationships individually and collectively across the scientific, agency, and boundary organization communities in pursuit of an understanding of what the current science tells us about the threat of climate change and how to incorporate that understanding into planning. Many WUCA agencies, including those of the authors, have completed or are in the process of completing state-of-the-art assessments using climate model output, expert elicitation, and their own internal modeling tools. A WUCA initiative, Piloting Utility Modeling Applications for Climate Change (PUMA), is facilitating collaboration between five water utilities, four climate science consortiums, and a Modeling Advisory Committee in the preparation of climate change assessments. For WUCA members, and likely others in the adaptation community, the need is for "actionable science," a term WUCA began using in 2008 that was included as an objective in the recently released strategic plan for U.S. Global Change Research Program. Ultimately, assessments feed into existing utility planning processes that look into a future that ranges in scope from years to decades in order to provide guidance on adaptation measures that may be needed. This talk will use WUCA member experiences as case studies to zero in on utility needs for information at these scales, the form of data that best fits with our downstream models (hydrologic, planning), and on the challenges of planning in an atmosphere of uncertainty.

  6. Enhanced interannual precipitation variability increases plant functional diversity that in turn ameliorates negative impact on productivity

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Although precipitation interannual variability is projected to increase due to climate change, effects of changes in precipitation variance have received considerable less attention than effects of changes in the mean state of climate. Interannual precipitation variability effects on functional dive...

  7. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of bud development as related to climate in two coexisting Mediterranean Quercus species

    PubMed Central

    Alla, Arben Q.; Camarero, J. Julio; Montserrat-Martí, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    Background and Aims In trees, bud development is driven by endogenous and exogenous factors such as species and climate, respectively. However, knowledge is scarce on how these factors drive changes in bud size across different time scales. Methods The seasonal patterns of apical bud enlargement are related to primary and secondary growth in two coexisting Mediterranean oaks with contrasting leaf habit (Quercus ilex, evergreen; Quercus faginea, deciduous) over three years. In addition, the climatic factors driving changes in bud size of the two oak species were determined by correlating bud mass with climatic variables at different time scales (from 5 to 30 d) over a 15-year period. Key Results The maximum enlargement rate of buds was reached between late July and mid-August in both species. Moreover, apical bud size increased with minimum air temperatures during the period of maximum bud enlargement rates. Conclusions The forecasted rising minimum air temperatures predicted by climatic models may affect bud size and consequently alter crown architecture differentially in sympatric Mediterranean oaks. However, the involvement of several drivers controlling the final size of buds makes it difficult to predict the changes in bud size as related to ongoing climate warming. PMID:23179859

  8. The role of climate and human changes on inter-annual variation in stream nitrate fluxes and concentrations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Philippe, M.; Gascuel, C.; Pierre, A.; Patrick, D.; Laurent, R.; Jérome, M.

    2010-12-01

    In recent decades, temporal variations in nitrate fluxes and concentrations in temperate rivers have resulted from the interaction of anthropogenic and climatic factors. The effect of climatic drivers remains unclear, while the relative importance of the drivers seems to be highly site dependent. This paper focuses on 2-6 years variations called meso-scale variations, and analyses the climatic drivers of these variations in a study site characterized by high N inputs from intensive animal farming systems and shallow aquifers with impervious bedrock in a temperate climate. Three approaches are developed: 1) an analysis of long-term records (30-40 years) of nitrate fluxes and nitrate concentrations in 30 coastal rivers of Western France, which were well-marked by meso-scale cycles in the fluxes and concentration with a slight hysteresis; 2) a test of the climatic control using a lumped two box model, which demonstrates that hydrological assumptions are sufficient to explain these meso-scale cycles; and 3) a model of nitrate fluxes and concentrations in two contrasted catchments subjected to recent mitigation measures, which analyses nitrate fluxes and concentrations in relation to N stored in groundwater. In coastal rivers, hydrological drivers (i.e., effective rainfall), and particularly the dynamics of the water table and rather stable nitrate concentration, explain the meso-scale cyclic patterns. In the headwater catchment, agricultural and hydrological drivers can interact according their settings. The requirements to better distinguish the effect of climate and human changes in integrated water management are addressed: long term monitoring, coupling the analysis and the modelling of large sets of catchments incorporating different sizes, land uses and environmental factors. (Figure : Discharge, nitrate concentrations and fluxes in the Aulne river from 1973 to 2007.)

  9. Comparison of Interannual Climate Variability and Soil Moisture Capacity as Controls of Evapotranspiration in Western U.S. Mountain Forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia, E.; Tague, C.

    2013-12-01

    The montane forests of the Western US have developed in Mediterranean climates where the majority of annual precipitation is received prior to the growing season. The magnitude of forest evapotranspiration (ET) in these regions is strongly controlled by two mechanisms that extend winter water availability into growing season demands: intra-annual climatic interactions and soil moisture holding capacity. In these snowy, water-limited ecosystems, primary climatic controls of ET include total annual precipitation received and snowpack accumulation and melt. The amount of time that subsurface soil moisture remains accessible to vegetation on the landscape is a strong function of soil moisture holding capacity. The importance of soil's influence on vegetation distribution and productivity has been well established, but its heterogeneity limits our understanding of its basin-scale effects on ET. Current climate projections in this region forecast increasing temperatures and changes to snowpack dynamics through timing of melt and changes in fraction of precipitation falling as rain versus snow. How will these changes in the timing and magnitude of the water and energy interactions change landscape ET? How does our current understanding of basin-scale soil properties influence our ET estimates? In this work, we use a physically-based process model to estimate annual ET in three western US mountain catchments: Big Thompson in Colorado's Rocky Mountains, Lookout Creek in Oregon's Cascades, and Sagehen Experimental Forest located in the Sierra Nevadas. We use statistical analysis to compare the strength of climatic and topographic controls on annual ET. By conducting these analyses across multiple basins, we show how the sensitivity of ET varies with the magnitude of precipitation, fraction of precipitation received as snow and occurrence of summer monsoonal pulses. We also show that average basin soil water capacity influences the estimates of long-term, total annual ET

  10. Satellite-measured interannual variability of turbid river plumes off central-southern Chile: Spatial patterns and the influence of climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saldías, Gonzalo S.; Largier, John L.; Mendes, Renato; Pérez-Santos, Iván; Vargas, Cristian A.; Sobarzo, Marcus

    2016-08-01

    Ocean color imagery from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) onboard the Aqua platform is used to characterize the interannual variability of turbid river plumes off central-southern Chile. Emphasis is placed on the influence of climate fluctuations, namely El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). Additional satellite data on wind, boat-based hydrographic profiles, and regional climate indices are used to identify the influence of climate variability on the generation of anomalous turbid river plumes. The evolution of salinity at a coastal station on the 90 m isobath between the Itata and Biobío Rivers shows a freshwater surface layer with salinity < 32.5 and 5-10 m thick during major plume events in 2002, 2005 and 2006. Surface salinity minima are correlated with peaks in turbidy from the normalized water leaving radiance at 555 nm (nLw(555)), both representing turbid river plumes. EOF analysis reveals that major turbid plume events occurred primarily during warm phases of the ENSO and PDO, and negative phases of the AAO, when storm tracks are further north. Anomalously large turbid plumes extend long distances offshore (∼ 70-80 km), and individual plumes coalesce into a continuous plume along the coast that covers the entire continental shelf. Season-specific correlation analyses reveal an increased influence of the AAO on river plumes south of Punta Lavapié in spring-summer (negative correlation). North of this major cape, ENSO and PDO indices have a dominant influence on plumes with positive correlations with the nLw(555) signal in winter (and negative in summer). We discuss the biogeochemical implications of plume events and the importance of long-term and high-resolution ocean color observations for studying the temporal evolution of river plumes.

  11. Climatically induced interannual variability in aboveground production in forest-tundra and northern taiga of central Siberia.

    PubMed

    Knorre, Anastasia A; Kirdyanov, Alexander V; Vaganov, Eugene A

    2006-02-01

    To investigate the variability of primary production of boreal forest ecosystems under the current climatic changes, we compared the dynamics of annual increments and productivity of the main components of plant community (trees, shrubs, mosses) at three sites in the north of Siberia (Russia). Annual radial growth of trees and shrubs was mostly defined by summer temperature regime (positive correlation), but climatic response of woody plants was species specific and depends on local conditions. Dynamics of annual increments of mosses were opposite to tree growth. The difference in climatic response of the different vegetation components of the forest ecosystems indicates that these components seem to be adapted to use climatic conditions during the short and severe northern summer, and decreasing in annual production of one component is usually combined with the increase of other component productivity. Average productivity in the northern forest ecosystems varies from 0.05 to 0.14 t ha(-1) year(-1) for trees, from 0.05 to 0.18 t ha(-1) year(-1) for shrubs and from 0.54 to 0.66 t ha(-1) year(-1) for mosses. Higher values of tree productivity combined with lower annual moss productivity were found in sites in northern taiga in comparison with forest-tundra. Different tendencies in the productivity of the dominant species from each vegetation level (trees, shrubs, mosses) were indicated for the last 10 years studied (1990-1999): while productivity of mosses is increasing, productivity of trees is decreasing, but there is no obvious trend in the productivity of shrubs. Our results show that in the long term, the main contribution to changes in annual biomass productivity in forest-tundra and northern taiga ecosystems under the predicted climatic changes will be determined by living ground cover.

  12. Interannual variability in associations between seasonal climate, weather, and extremes: wintertime temperature over the Southwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guirguis, Kristen; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.

    2015-12-01

    Temperature variability in the Southwest US is investigated using skew-normal probability distribution functions (SN PDFs) fitted to observed wintertime daily maximum temperature records. These PDFs vary significantly between years, with important geographical differences in the relationship between the central tendency and tails, revealing differing linkages between weather and climate. The warmest and coldest extremes do not necessarily follow the distribution center. In some regions one tail of the distribution shows more variability than does the other. For example, in California the cold tail is more variable while the warm tail remains relatively stable, so warm years are associated with fewer cold extremes but not necessarily more warm extremes. The opposite relationship is seen in the Great Plains. Changes in temperature PDFs are conditioned by different phases of El Niño-La Niña (ENSO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). In the Southern Great Plains, La Niña and/or negative PDO are associated with generally warmer conditions. However, in terms of extremes, while the warm tails become thicker and longer, the cool tails are not impacted—extremely warm days become more frequent but extremely cool days are not less frequent. In contrast, in coastal California, La Niña or negative PDO bring generally cooler conditions with more/stronger cold extremes but the warm extreme probability is not significantly affected. These results could have implications for global warming. If a rigid shift of the whole range occurs, then warm years are not necessarily a good analogue for a warmer climate. If global warming instead brings regional changes more aligned with a preferred state of dominant climate variability modes, then we may see asymmetric changes in the tails of local temperature PDFs.

  13. Exploring the interannual variablitity of the Martian atmosphere with the Mars Climate Database v5.2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Millour, Ehouarn; Forget, Francois; Lopez-Valverde, Miguel; Navarro, Thomas; Lefevre, Franck; Gonzalez-Galindo, Francisco; Chaufray, Jean-Yves; Spiga, Aymeric; Lewis, Stephen; Pottier, Alizee; Montabone, Luca

    2016-07-01

    The latest Mars Climate Database (version 5.2) includes synthetic scenarios (namely the "clim" climatology scenario, representative of a standard Mars year without any global dust storm) as well as specific scenarios corresponding to seven actual Mars years, from Mars Year 24 to Mars Year 31. At the COSPAR 2016 scientific assembly, we will address the validation of MCDv5.2 scenarios with available observations from spacecrafts and landers, and discuss more specifically of the obtained multi-annual climatologies and how these deviate over the years.

  14. Evaluating and Quantifying the Climate-Driven Interannual Variability in Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI3g) at Global Scales

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zeng, Fanwei; Collatz, George James; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Ivanoff, Alvaro

    2013-01-01

    Satellite observations of surface reflected solar radiation contain informationabout variability in the absorption of solar radiation by vegetation. Understanding thecauses of variability is important for models that use these data to drive land surface fluxesor for benchmarking prognostic vegetation models. Here we evaluated the interannualvariability in the new 30.5-year long global satellite-derived surface reflectance index data,Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies normalized difference vegetation index(GIMMS NDVI3g). Pearsons correlation and multiple linear stepwise regression analyseswere applied to quantify the NDVI interannual variability driven by climate anomalies, andto evaluate the effects of potential interference (snow, aerosols and clouds) on the NDVIsignal. We found ecologically plausible strong controls on NDVI variability by antecedent precipitation and current monthly temperature with distinct spatial patterns. Precipitation correlations were strongest for temperate to tropical water limited herbaceous systemswhere in some regions and seasons 40 of the NDVI variance could be explained byprecipitation anomalies. Temperature correlations were strongest in northern mid- to-high-latitudes in the spring and early summer where up to 70 of the NDVI variance was explained by temperature anomalies. We find that, in western and central North America,winter-spring precipitation determines early summer growth while more recent precipitation controls NDVI variability in late summer. In contrast, current or prior wetseason precipitation anomalies were correlated with all months of NDVI in sub-tropical herbaceous vegetation. Snow, aerosols and clouds as well as unexplained phenomena still account for part of the NDVI variance despite corrections. Nevertheless, this study demonstrates that GIMMS NDVI3g represents real responses of vegetation to climate variability that are useful for global models.

  15. A Top-down soil moisture and sap flux sampling design to capture the effect of inter-annual climate variability on ecohydrology in mountain catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Son, K.; Tague, C.

    2010-12-01

    Soil moisture in mountain catchments is highly spatial heterogeneous due to steep topographic gradients, complex soil and vegetation patterns and seasonally varying energy and precipitation inputs. In an idealized setting, a randomized soil moisture sampling design with high spatial frequency can be used to resolve the spatial heterogeneity of soil moisture at catchment scales. However, this bottom-up approach is constrained by the feasibility of high frequency measurements particularly in mountain environments with limited accessibility. Thus, in these mountain environments, an alternative, top-down approach is often needed. In this study, we propose the top-down approach sampling design of soil moisture and sapflux measurement based on an ecohydrologic model and clustering analysis. The sampling strategy is explicitly designed to capture the effect of inter-annual climate variability on ecohydrolgy response of mountain catchments located in King River Experiment Watersheds, Sierra National Forest. The ecohydrolgic model (RHESSys model) is calibrated with existing collected data sets including snow depth, soil moisture, sapflux, evapotranspiration from a flux tower and streamflow. The model is used to generate spatial-temporal patterns of snow accumulation and melt, soil moisture and transpiration and compute inter-annual mean and coefficient of variation of five hydrologic similarity indices. Similarity indices are chosen to reflect seasonal trajectories of snowmelt, root-zone soil moisture storage and evapotranspiration. Clustering analysis, using Partitioning Around Medoid (PAM), is used to partition the watershed based on these similarity indices. For the Kings River Experimental Watersheds, clustering distinguished six clusters and a representative plot per cluster. These results were used to identify additional strategic sampling points within the watershed. For each of these points, we installed soil moisture sensors (5TE) at the two depths (30m and 90m

  16. Impact of extreme inter-annual climatic events on the net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange of a Sitka spruce forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saunders, M.; Tobin, B.; Gioria, M.; Cacciotti, E.; Benanti, G.; Osborne, B. A.

    2013-12-01

    Temperature and precipitation are key climatic drivers of the global carbon cycle and play an important role in the greenhouse gas mitigation potential of terrestrial ecosystems. The impacts of extreme climatic variability, which in this study were defined by differences in rainfall and temperature of >5% (IPCC, 2012) relative to the long-term site mean (1978-2007), were assessed using eddy covariance-based measurements of net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE). Precipitation in 2009 and 2010 was 1156 mm and 741 mm, respectively and approximately 35% higher and 16% lower than the 30 year mean for this region (1978-2007). The differences in precipitation in 2009 were not uniformly distributed throughout the year and occurred largely during the growing season (April-August). The mean annual air temperature in 2010 was ~17% lower than the 30 year mean, and characterized by a number of extended sub-zero temperature events during the winter months. These climatic differences resulted in a 1.07 t C ha yr-1 difference between the annual estimates of NEE in 2009 (8.14 × 1.94 t C ha yr-1) and 2010 (9.21 × 0.99 t C ha yr-1) respectively. The measured NEE in 2009 and 2010 represented a 5.6% decrease and a 6.9% increase relative to the long-term mean measured at this site (2002-2008; 8.62 × 1.39 t C ha yr-1). The components of NEE, gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco), also showed differences between years. In 2009, GPP was ~19% lower when compared to 2010, most likely due to a reduction in stand photosynthesis at higher irradiances during the growing season that was correlated with higher soil water availability. The extended sub-zero temperatures experienced during the winter of 2010 had a greater impact on GPP, relative to Reco, resulting in a net loss of carbon during these periods. Variations in GPP were, however, positively correlated with Reco in both years. NEE was correlated with temperature in all years, with a slope (negative) of

  17. Effects of Interannual Climate Variability on Water Availability and Productivity in Capoeira and Crops Under Traditional and Alternative Shifting Cultivation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Guild, Liane S.; Sa, Tatiana D. A.; Carvalho, Claudio J. R.; Potter, Christopher S.; Wickel, Albert J.; Brienza, Silvio, Jr.; Kato, Maria doSocorro A.; Kato, Osvaldo; Brass, James (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Regenerating forests play an important role in long-term carbon sequestration and sustainable landuse as they act as potentially important carbon and nutrient sinks during the shifting agriculture fallow period. The long-term functioning of capoeira. is increasingly threatened by a shortening fallow period during shifting cultivation due to demographic pressures and associated increased vulnerability to severe climatic events. Declining productivity and functioning of fallow forests of shifting cultivation combined with progressive loss of nutrients by successive burning and cropping activities has resulted in declining agricultural productivity. In addition to the effects of intense land use practices, droughts associated with El Nino events are becoming more frequent and severe in moist tropical forests and negative effects on capoeira productivity could be considerable. In Igarape-Acu (near Belem, Para), we hypothesize that experimental alternative landuse/clearing practices (mulching and fallow vegetation improvement by planting with fast-growing leguminous tree species) may make capoeira and agriculture more resilient to the effects of agricultural pressures and drought through (1) increased biomass, soil organic matter and associated increase in soil water storage, and nutrient retention and (2) greater rooting depth of trees planted for fallow improvement. This experimental practice (moto mechanized chop-and-mulch with fallow improvement) has resulted increased soil moisture during the cropping phase, reduced loss of nutrients and organic matter, and higher rates of secondary-forest biomass accumulation. We present preliminary data on water relations during the dry season of 2001 in capoeira and crops for both traditional slash-and-burn and alternative chop-and-mulch practices. These data will be used to test IKONOS data for the detection of moisture status differences. The principal goal of the research is to determine the extent to which capoeira and

  18. Influence of soil C stocks and interannual climatic variability on the CO2 and CH4 exchange of maize cultivated on mineral and organic soils in NE Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pohl, Madlen; Hagemann, Ulrike; Hoffmann, Mathias; Giebels, Michael; Albiac-Borraz, Elisa; Sommer, Michael; Augustin, Jürgen

    2014-05-01

    Due to its glacially influenced genesis and land use history, the soils of the Great Plain Region of NE-Germany show large differences in groundwater levels and soil carbon (C) stocks over short distances. Although generally featuring a rather dry climate, trace gas exchange at individual sites may be influenced by i) interannual climatic variability, particularly with respect to precipitation; as well as by ii) variability of soil C stocks. However, it is still unclear how these factors affect fluxes of CO2 and CH4, and if there is any positive or negative feedback on the C source or sink function of different soil types. We present measured and modeled CO2 and CH4 fluxes of minerally fertilized grain maize for three sites located near Paulinenaue, within the so-called Rhin-Havelluch, a shallow and drained paludification mire complex in NE Germany. The sites are characterized by a distinct gradient of 0-1 m soil organic C stocks: i) Arenosol (AR: mineral soil/distant groundwater; 8 000 g C m-2), ii) Gleysol (GL: organic soil/groundwater-dependent; 35 000 g C m-2), and iii) Histosol (HS: organic soil/near groundwater; 45 000 g C m-2). CO2 flux measurements of ecosystem respiration (Reco), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary production (GPP; calculated as difference between NEE and Reco) were conducted every four weeks using a flow-through non-steady-state closed chamber system. Measurement gaps of Reco and NEE were filled by using temperature or radiation-based models, respectively. CH4 fluxes were measured bi-weekly using a static closed chamber system with interval sampling, with gap filling via linear interpolation. Cumulated fluxes of CO2-C (Reco, GPP, NEE) and CH4-C were calculated for a period of four consecutive years (2007-2010). The intensity of CO2-C fluxes increased with growing soil organic C stocks (AR < GL < HS). Mean annual values of the years 2008-2010 for Reco ranged between 1 500 g C m-2 and 2 000 g C m-2; annual GPP fluxes ranged from

  19. The 1994 heat wave in South Korea: mortality impacts and recurrence probability in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kysely, J.; Kim, J.

    2010-03-01

    The study deals with mortality impacts of the July-August 1994 heat wave in the population of South Korea, including the megacity of Seoul (with the population exceeding 10 million for the city and 20 million for the metropolitan area), and estimates recurrence probability of the heat wave in a changing climate in terms of simulations of daily temperature series with a stochastic model. The 1994 heat wave is found exceptional with respect to both climatological characteristics and the mortality effects: significantly elevated mortality occurred in all population groups, including children up to 14 years of age, and the total death toll exceeded 3000 in the Korean population, which ranks the 1994 heat wave among the worst weather-related disasters in East Asia. The estimate represents net excess mortality as no mortality displacement effect appeared. A comparison with other documented natural disasters shows that the death toll of the heat wave was much higher than those of the most disastrous floodings and typhoons over Korean Peninsula in the 20th century. The mortality response was stronger in males than females although males are found to be less vulnerable during average heat waves. A climatological analysis reveals that the July-August 1994 heat wave might be considered an extremely rare event with a return period in the order of hundreds of years if stationarity of temperature time series is assumed. However, under a more realistic assumption of gradual warming related to climate change, recurrence probability of an event analogous to the 1994 heat wave sharply rises for near-future time horizons. If warming of 0.04°C/year is assumed over 2001-2060, the recurrence interval of a very long spell of days with temperature exceeding a high threshold (as in the 1994 heat wave) is estimated to decrease to around 40 (10) years in the 2021-2030 (2041-2050) decade. This emphasizes the need for setting up an efficient heat-watch-warning system in this area in order to

  20. Detection of Interannual Climate Variability in Secondary Forests and Crops Under Traditional and Alternative Shifting Cultivation Using Ikonos Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sa, T.; Guild, L.; Carvalho, C.; Wickel, A.; Brienza, S.; Kato, M.; Kato, O.; Leibs, C.

    2004-12-01

    Regenerating forests play an important role in long-term carbon sequestration and sustainable landuse as they act as potentially important carbon and nutrient sinks during the shifting agriculture fallow period. The long-term functioning of secondary forests (capoeira) is increasingly threatened by a shortening fallow period during shifting cultivation due to demographic pressures and associated increased vulnerability to severe climatic events. Declining productivity and functioning of fallow forests of shifting cultivation combined with progressive loss of nutrients by successive burning and cropping activities has resulted in declining agricultural productivity. In addition to the effects of intense land use practices, droughts associated with El Nino events are becoming more frequent and severe in moist tropical forests and negative effects on capoeira productivity could be considerable. The principal goal of the research is to determine the extent to which capoeira and agricultural fields are susceptible to extreme climate events (drought) under contrasting landuse/clearing practices. In Igarape-Açu (near Belem, Para), we hypothesize that experimental alternative landuse/clearing practices (mulching) may make capoeira and crops more resilient to the effects of agricultural pressures and drought through increased biomass, soil organic matter and associated increase in soil water storage, and nutrient retention. This experimental practice (mechanized chop-and-mulch) has resulted in increased soil moisture during the cropping phase, reduced loss of nutrients and organic matter, and higher rates of secondary-forest biomass accumulation. This project aims to measure water availability and it's relation to secondary forest and crop productivity in the Brazilian Amazon. We have conducted field efforts during two dry seasons (August-December). Field data on water relations were collected during the dry season of 2001 and 2002 in capoeira and crops for both

  1. Interannual to Decadal Variability in Climate and the Glacier Mass Balance in Washington, Western Canada, and Alaska*.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bitz, C. M.; Battisti, D. S.

    1999-11-01

    The authors examine the net winter, summer, and annual mass balance of six glaciers along the northwest coast of North America, extending from Washington State to Alaska. The net winter (NWB) and net annual (NAB) mass balance anomalies for the maritime glaciers in the southern group, located in Washington and British Columbia, are shown to be positively correlated with local precipitation anomalies and storminess (defined as the rms of high-passed 500-mb geopotential anomalies) and weakly and negatively correlated with local temperature anomalies. The NWB and NAB of the maritime Wolverine glacier in Alaska are also positively correlated with local precipitation, but they are positively correlated with local winter temperature and negatively correlated with local storminess. Hence, anomalies in mass balance at Wolverine result mainly from the change in moisture that is being advected into the region by anomalies in the averaged wintertime circulation rather than from a change in storminess. The patterns of the wintertime 500-mb circulation and storminess anomalies associated with years of high NWB in the southern glacier group are similar to those associated with low NWB years at the Wolverine glacier, and vice versa.The decadal ENSO-like climate phenomenon discussed by Zhang et al. has a large impact on the NWB and NAB of these maritime glaciers, accounting for up to 35% of the variance in NWB. The 500-mb circulation and storminess anomalies associated with this decadal ENSO-like mode resemble the Pacific-North American pattern, as do 500-mb composites of years of extreme NWB of South Cascade glacier in Washington and of Wolverine glacier in Alaska. Hence, the decadal ENSO-like mode affects precipitation in a crucial way for the NWB of these glaciers. Specifically, the decadal ENSO-like phenomenon strongly affects the storminess over British Columbia and Washington and the moisture transported by the seasonally averaged circulation into maritime Alaska. In contrast

  2. Use of color maps and wavelet coherence to discern seasonal and interannual climate influences on streamflow variability in northern catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carey, Sean K.; Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Buttle, Jim; Laudon, Hjalmar; McDonnell, Jeff; McGuire, Kevin; Seibert, Jan; Soulsby, Chris; Shanley, Jamie

    2013-10-01

    The higher midlatitudes of the northern hemisphere are particularly sensitive to change due to the important role the 0°C isotherm plays in the phase of precipitation and intermediate storage as snow. An international intercatchment comparison program called North-Watch seeks to improve our understanding of the sensitivity of northern catchments to change by examining their hydrological and biogeochemical variability and response. Here eight North-Watch catchments located in Sweden (Krycklan), Scotland (Girnock and Strontian), the United States (Sleepers River, Hubbard Brook, and HJ Andrews), and Canada (Dorset and Wolf Creek) with 10 continuous years of daily precipitation and runoff data were selected to assess daily to seasonal coupling of precipitation (P) and runoff (Q) using wavelet coherency, and to explore the patterns and scales of variability in streamflow using color maps. Wavelet coherency revealed that P and Q were decoupled in catchments with cold winters, yet were strongly coupled during and immediately following the spring snowmelt freshet. In all catchments, coupling at shorter time scales occurred during wet periods when the catchment was responsive and storage deficits were small. At longer time scales, coupling reflected coherence between seasonal cycles, being enhanced at sites with enhanced seasonality in P. Color maps were applied as an alternative method to identify patterns and scales of flow variability. Seasonal versus transient flow variability was identified along with the persistence of that variability on influencing the flow regime. While exploratory in nature, this intercomparison exercise highlights the importance of climate and the 0°C isotherm on the functioning of northern catchments.

  3. Interannual climate variability and spatially heterogeneous improvement of agricultural management impede detection of a decreasing trend in nitrate pollution in an agricultural catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fovet, Ophélie; Dupas, Rémi; Durand, Patrick; Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal; Gruau, Gérard; Hamon, Yannick; Petitjean, Patrice

    2016-04-01

    Despite widespread implementation of the nitrate directive in the European Union since the 1990s, the impact on nitrate concentration in rivers is limited (Bouraoui and Grizzetti, 2011). To assess whether this lack of response is due to the long time lags of nitrate transfer or to inadequate programs of measure, long term river and groundwater monitoring data are necessary. This study analyses 15 years of daily nitrate concentration data at the outlet of an intensively farmed catchment in Western France (Kervidy-Naizin, 5 km²) and quarterly nitrate concentration data in the groundwater of two hillslopes equipped with piezometers (Kerroland and Gueriniec) within the same catchment. In this catchment groundwater contribution to annual stream flow is dominant. The objectives of this study were to i) disentangle the influence of interannual climate variability and improvement of agricultural practices (i.e. reduction in N surplus) in the stream chemistry and ii) discuss the reasons for slow catchment recovery from nitrate pollution by comparing trends in groundwater and stream concentrations. Analysis of stream data showed that flow-weighted mean annual concentration at the outlet of the Kervidy-Naizin catchment has decreased by 1.2 mg NO3- l-1 yr-1 from 1999 to 2015. This decrease was slow but significant (p value < 0.01) even though interannual climate variability (i.e. annual cumulated runoff) added noise to the signal: i) deviation in the linear model of nitrate decrease with time was negatively correlated with annual runoff (r = -0.54, p < 0.01) and ii) local minimums in the nitrate time series were coincident with local maximums in the annual runoff. Thus high runoff during wet years led to dilution of the nitrate originating from groundwater, which added variability to the signal of linear decrease in stream concentration. Analysis of groundwater data showed a significant and sharp decrease in nitrate concentration in the Kerroland piezometer transect (4.0 mg

  4. The role of synoptic, seasonal, and inter-annual climate on the carbon isotope ratio of ecosystem respiration in a semi-arid woodland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shim, J.; Powers, H. H.; Meyer, C.; Pockman, W.; McDowell, N.

    2010-12-01

    The terrestrial carbon cycle is influenced by environmental variability at time scales ranging from synoptic to inter-annual. Here we present five-years of nightly growing season (day 100-300) observations of the carbon isotope ratio of ecosystem respiration (δ 13CR) from a semi-arid, Juniperus monosperma dominated woodland. This ecosystem experienced large environmental changes, including variable frequency and intensity of precipitation-pulses and timing and intensity of droughts and monsoon seasons. Mean δ 13CR was remarkably invariant (-23.57 + 0.4 ‰), with the only exception being particularly enriched δ 13CR in 2006 following a winter with anomalously low snowfall and during other seasonal periods of low soil water content (SWC). δ 13CR was strongly coupled to climate and physiology during the dry pre-monsoon periods (typically May-June), including fast (≤2 days) responses to changes in juniper canopy conductance (Gc) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) following rain pulses. In contrast, δ 13CR was relatively de-coupled from Gc and environmental drivers during monsoon and post-monsoon periods (July-August and September, respectively). During these latter two seasons, δ 13CR values approached the δ 13C of soil organic matter and response times to VPD and SWC were lagged significantly longer than for pre-monsoon periods (eight days average). Rainfall events caused clear immediate depletions in δ13CR,followed by progressive hourly δ 13CR enrichment. Rates of soil respiration were elevated during wet periods and had values similar to δ 13CR. These results are consistent with the source of ecosystem respiration shifting from autotrophic dominance utilizing recently assimilated C substrates in the pre-monsoon drought to an increasing heterotrophic decomposition of older carbon during the wetter monsoon and post-monsoon periods.

  5. Inter-annual Tropospheric Aerosol Variability in Late Twentieth Century and its Impact on Tropical Atlantic and West African Climate by Direct and Semi-direct Effects

    SciTech Connect

    Evans, Katherine J; Hack, James J; Truesdale, John; Mahajan, Salil; Lamarque, J-F

    2012-01-01

    A new high-resolution (0.9$^{\\circ}$x1.25$^{\\circ}$ in the horizontal) global tropospheric aerosol dataset with monthly resolution is generated using the finite-volume configuration of Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) coupled to a bulk aerosol model and forced with recent estimates of surface emissions for the latter part of twentieth century. The surface emissions dataset is constructed from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) decadal-resolution surface emissions dataset to include REanalysis of TROpospheric chemical composition (RETRO) wildfire monthly emissions dataset. Experiments forced with the new tropospheric aerosol dataset and conducted using the spectral configuration of CAM4 with a T85 truncation (1.4$^{\\circ}$x1.4$^{\\circ}$) with prescribed twentieth century observed sea surface temperature, sea-ice and greenhouse gases reveal that variations in tropospheric aerosol levels can induce significant regional climate variability on the inter-annual timescales. Regression analyses over tropical Atlantic and Africa reveal that increasing dust aerosols can cool the North African landmass and shift convection southwards from West Africa into the Gulf of Guinea in the spring season in the simulations. Further, we find that increasing carbonaceous aerosols emanating from the southwestern African savannas can cool the region significantly and increase the marine stratocumulus cloud cover over the southeast tropical Atlantic ocean by aerosol-induced diabatic heating of the free troposphere above the low clouds. Experiments conducted with CAM4 coupled to a slab ocean model suggest that present day aerosols can shift the ITCZ southwards over the tropical Atlantic and can reduce the ocean mixed layer temperature beneath the increased marine stratocumulus clouds in the southeastern tropical Atlantic.

  6. Forcings of nutrient, oxygen, and primary production interannual variability in the southeast Atlantic Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachèlery, M.-L.; Illig, S.; Dadou, I.

    2016-08-01

    The recurrent occurrences of interannual warm and cold events along the coast of Africa have been intensively studied because of their striking effects on climate and fisheries. Using sensitivity experimentation based on a coupled physical/biogeochemical model, we show that the oceanic remote equatorial forcing explains more than 85% of coastal interannual nitrate and oxygen fluctuations along the Angolan and Namibian coasts up to the Benguela Upwelling System (BUS). These events, associated with poleward propagations of upwelling and downwelling Coastal Trapped Waves (CTW), are maximum in subsurface and controlled by physical advection processes. Surprisingly, an abrupt change in the CTW biogeochemical signature is observed in the BUS, associated with mixed vertical gradients due to the strong local upwelling dynamics. Coastal modifications of biogeochemical features result in significant primary production variations that may affect fisheries habitats and coastal biodiversity along the southwestern African coasts and in the BUS.

  7. A Southern Washington Chronosequence Study: The Impact of Interannual Climate Variability on Ecosystem Exchange of Carbon, Water, and Energy in a Newly Established and Old-Growth Coniferous Forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wharton, S.; Schroeder, M.; Falk, M.; Paw U, K.

    2005-12-01

    The T.T. Munger Research Natural Area of southern Washington provides a unique opportunity to study carbon exchange between coniferous forests and the atmosphere in a region that experiences a significant amount of forest harvesting disturbance and interannual climate variability. Here we present initial biometeorological measurements of carbon and water exchange at a 10 year old Douglas-fir stand with the goal of gaining information on how regional climate change will affect the carbon and hydrological budgets of a newly established forest. The young forest is 1.25 km from the Wind River Canopy Crane Research Facility, an AMERIFLUX site that has been continuously measuring carbon, water, and energy fluxes at an old-growth forest since 1998. Though still in its infancy, data from this chronosequence study will be used to quantify how sensitive net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon is to interannual climate variability at different aged stands of the Washington western Cascades. Because the young stand is in close proximity to the old-growth forest, the climates at both forests will be identical, though the microclimates will not. The response in NEE at the young stand during the seasonal drought may be very different from that at the old-growth forest due to dissimilar canopy understory composition, which will lead to site differences in soil moisture and soil temperature. How this affects respiration rates and photosynthetic rates at both stands is one of the questions that will be addressed by this study. As the chronosequence study progresses, we hope to show any sensitivities that a newly established forest has to climate variability and in conjuncture with data from the old-growth stand, give the global carbon community important information on the forest carbon sequestration potential of the Pacific Northwest.

  8. The relationship between interannual and long-term cloud feedbacks

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Dessler, Andrew E.; Klein, Stephen A.

    2015-12-11

    The analyses of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations suggest that climate models with more positive cloud feedback in response to interannual climate fluctuations also have more positive cloud feedback in response to long-term global warming. Ensemble mean vertical profiles of cloud change in response to interannual and long-term surface warming are similar, and the ensemble mean cloud feedback is positive on both timescales. However, the average long-term cloud feedback is smaller than the interannual cloud feedback, likely due to differences in surface warming pattern on the two timescales. Low cloud cover (LCC) change in response to interannual and long-term global surface warming is found to be well correlated across models and explains over half of the covariance between interannual and long-term cloud feedback. In conclusion, the intermodel correlation of LCC across timescales likely results from model-specific sensitivities of LCC to sea surface warming.

  9. The relationship between interannual and long-term cloud feedbacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Dessler, Andrew E.; Klein, Stephen A.

    2015-12-01

    Analyses of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations suggest that climate models with more positive cloud feedback in response to interannual climate fluctuations also have more positive cloud feedback in response to long-term global warming. Ensemble mean vertical profiles of cloud change in response to interannual and long-term surface warming are similar, and the ensemble mean cloud feedback is positive on both timescales. However, the average long-term cloud feedback is smaller than the interannual cloud feedback, likely due to differences in surface warming pattern on the two timescales. Low cloud cover (LCC) change in response to interannual and long-term global surface warming is found to be well correlated across models and explains over half of the covariance between interannual and long-term cloud feedback. The intermodel correlation of LCC across timescales likely results from model-specific sensitivities of LCC to sea surface warming.

  10. Ethical Considerations Regarding the Biological Contamination of Climatically Recurrent Special Regions.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clifford, S. M.

    2014-04-01

    years, such as in the Martian polar layered deposits (and other high-latitude, ice-rich environments), at times of high obliquity. Current climate models suggest that, for obliquities > 45°, summertime surface temperatures at polar and near-polar latitudes may approach or exceed the melting point of water for continuous periods of many months (Costard et al., 2001; Jakosky et al., 2003) - conditions that may be repeated annually throughout the maximum obliquity phase of the 105-year obliquity cycle. If so, these icerich, high-latitude environments may be considered climatically recurrent Special Regions - and may be among the most potentially habitable environments on Mars for the survival and growth of terrestrial microorganisms.A significant concern arising from this potential is that, whether by accident or the nominal operation of investigating spacecraft (cleaned to less than Special Region (IVc) standards), we might irreversibly contaminate these sensitive environments. While such contamination may not pose an immediate threat to the integrity of our spacecraft life-detection experiments, its potential impact on the long-term health and ultimate survival of a native Martian biosphere raises significant scientific and ethical concerns, as identified in the NRC report on Preventing the Forward Contamination 0f Mars [4]. Precedents for considering the adoption of planetary protection standards that minimize the potential impact of our exploration efforts on a native biosphere include the NRC report on Preventing the Forward Contamination of Europa, which noted that "future spacecraft missions to Europa must be subject to procedures designed to prevent its contamination by terrestrial organisms. This is necessary to safeguard the scientific integrity of future studies of Europa's biological potential and to protect against potential harm to Europan organisms, if they exist, and is mandated by obligations under the [Outer Space Treaty]" [5]). Virtually identical

  11. Interannual variability of the Arctic freshwater cycle in the second half of the twentieth century in a regionally coupled climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niederdrenk, Anne Laura; Sein, Dmitry V.; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

    2016-03-01

    We use a regionally coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere-hydrological discharge model to investigate the influence of changes in the atmospheric large-scale circulation on the interannual variability of the Arctic freshwater (FW) components. This model includes all sinks and sources of FW and allows for the analysis of a closed FW cycle in the Arctic. We show that few atmospheric winter modes explain large parts of the interannual variability of the Arctic FW cycle. A strong Icelandic low causing anomalous strong westerlies over the North Atlantic leads to warmer and wetter conditions over Eurasia. The ocean circulation is then characterized by a strong transpolar drift leading to increased export of FW in liquid and solid form into the North Atlantic. In contrast to this, a weaker than usual Icelandic low and a strong Siberian high is associated with a strong Beaufort Gyre and thus an accumulation of FW within the Arctic Ocean. Not only specific winter conditions but also increased precipitation in late spring and summer, caused by enhanced cyclone activity over land, lead to increased Eurasian runoff, which is responsible for most of the variability in Arctic river runoff.

  12. Recurrence network-based time series analysis for identifying tipping points in Plio-Pleistocene African climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donges, J. F.; Donner, R. V.; Trauth, M. H.; Marwan, N.; Schellnhuber, H. J.; Kurths, J.

    2012-04-01

    The analysis of paleoclimate time series is usually affected by severe methodological problems, resulting primarily from non-equidistant sampling and uncertain age models. As an alternative to existing methods of time series analysis, the statistical properties of recurrence networks are promising candidates for characterizing a system's nonlinear dynamics and quantifying structural changes in its reconstructed phase space as time evolves. The results of recurrence network analysis are robust under changes in the age model and are not directly affected by non-equidistant sampling of the data. Specifically, we investigate three marine records of African climate variability during the Plio-Pleistocene. We detect several statistically significant dynamical transitions or tipping points and show that the obtained results are qualitatively robust under changes of the relevant parameters of our method, including detrending, size of the running window used for analysis, and embedding delay. Finally, relating the identified tipping points in paleoclimate-variability to speciation and extinction events in the available fossil record of human ancestors contributes to the understanding of climatic mechanisms driving human evolution in Africa during the past 5 million years.

  13. Evaluation of the UK Met Office's HadGEM3-RA and HadRM3P regional climate models within South America-CORDEX simulations: ENSO related interannual precipitation variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bozkurt, D.; Rojas, M.

    2014-12-01

    This study aims to investigate and compare the ability of the UK Met Office's HadGEM3-RA and HadRM3P regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate mean and interannual variability of precipitation over South America with a special focus on Chile. The HadGEM3-RA is a regional version of the newly developed HadGEM3 global model and the HadRM3P is based on the earlier HadCM3 global model. The RCMs simulations were carried out at 0.44o x 0.44o degree resolution over South America-CORDEX domain for the period 1989-2008. The initial and boundary conditions were provided by ERA-Interim Reanalysis data available at 6-h intervals with a resolution of 1.5o x 1.5o in the horizontal and 37 pressure levels. We compare the results against a number of observational datasets, including gridded dataset of CRU, UDEL, TRMM and GPCP. Moreover, available station data is derived from Direccion General de Aguas (DGA) mainly for Central Chile, which is the heartland of Chile with the highest population and important economic activities. The analysis is mainly focused on evaluating the abilities of the RCMs in simulating spatial pattern and ENSO related precipitation variability in different subregions of South America-CORDEX domain. In general, both RCMs have a good skill in reproducing spatial pattern and annual cycle of observed precipitation in climatically different subregions. However, both RCMs tend to underestimate precipitation in the Amazon Basin, which is more pronounced in the HadRM3P simulations. On the contrary, the RCMs tend to overestimate the precipitation over the Andes and southern Chile. The overestimation could be related to the physical core of the RCMs, but the discrepancies could also arise due to insufficient station network, especially in the mountainous areas, potentially yielding smaller precipitation quantities in the observed data than the true ones. In terms of interannual variability, the models capture ENSO related wet and dry interannual precipitation

  14. Changing Climate, Disrupted Livelihoods: The Case of Vulnerability of Nomadic Maasai Pastoralism to Recurrent Droughts in Kajiado District, Kenya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mwangi, M. N.; Desanker, P. V.

    2007-12-01

    Pastoralism is practiced in all arid and semiarid lands (ASALs) of Africa. High interannual rainfall variability and degraded ecosystems characterize these ASALs and limits arable farming. Under these conditions, pastoralism has evolved as the most feasible livelihood system in ASALs, where total annual rainfall correlates with annual net primary productivity, especially grass. Maasai of East Africa are the largest group of nomadic pastoralists in Africa, with about two-thirds living in southern Kenya, mainly in Kajiado and Narok Districts. Maasai people of Kenya subsist by nomadic pastoralism. Nomads migrate with their livestock in search of natural pastures and water as climatic and environmental circumstances mandate. Successful migrations of nomadic pastoralists are being hampered by changing social and ecological factors both at local and broader scales. What is more, increased frequency and duration of drought constitute a major challenge with which the Maasai have to confront. Drought is a slow-developing phenomenon; therefore, it captures delayed attention. Nonetheless, the cumulative impacts of drought are more immense. Drought triggers catastrophic events that diminish adaptive capacity of inhabitants of these ASALs; this is conspicuous in Kajiado District where livestock productivity plummet as resource base erodes. What is more, global climate change is projected to intensify the occurrence, severity and duration of droughts in this region. Frequent droughts are likely to disrupt proper functioning of nomadic Maasai pastoralism. This study presents findings from an integrated research conducted in Kajiado District during the last two years. Spatiotemporal trends of drought, effects of drought on, and possible future of nomadic Maasai pastoralism are presented. This is informative to the Maasai pastoralists, policy makers and other actors in this sector. Most important, the study is contributes toward formulation of informed drought management strategies

  15. Effect of climate, intra and inter-annual variability, on nutrients emission (C,N, P) in stream water: lessons from an agricultural long term observatory of the temperate zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal; Remi, Dupas; Patrick, Durand; Ophélie, Fovet; Gerard, Gruau; Anne, Jaffrezic; Guillaume, Humbert; Philippe, Merot; Gu, Sen

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture greatly contributes to modify C, N and P cycles, particularly in animal breeding regions due to high inputs. Climatic conditions, intra and inter-annual variabilities, modify nutrient stream water emissions, acting in time on transfer and transformation, accumulation and mobilization processes, connecting and disconnecting in time different compartments (soil, riparian areas, groundwater). In agricultural catchments, nutrient perturbations are dominated by agricultural land use, and decoupling human activities and climate effects is far from easy. Climate change generally appears as a secondary driver compared to land use. If studied, generally only one nutrient is considered. Only long term, high frequency and multiple element data series can decouple these two drivers. The Kervidy-Naizin watershed belongs to the AgrHyS environmental research observatory (http://www6.inra.fr/ore_agrhys_eng), itself included in RBV (French catchment network of the CZO). On this catchment, 6 years of daily data on DOC, NO3, SRP, TP concentrations allow us to analyze the effect of seasonal and inter-annual climatic variabilities on water quality (C, N, P). Different papers have been published on the effect of climate on nitrate (Molenat et al, 2008), SRP and TP (Dupas et al, 2015) and DOC (Humbert et al, 2015). We will present first results comparing the effect of climate on these three major solute forms of C, N and P. While C and P dynamics are very close and controlled by fluctuation of water table downslope, i.e. in riparian areas, mobilizing C and P in time, nitrate dynamics is controlled by GW dynamics upslope acting as the major N reservoir. As example, the dryness conditions in summer appears a key factor of the C and P emissions in autumn. All the three solute forms interact when anoxic conditions are observed in riparian zones. These basic processes explain how climatic variability can influence and explain interactions between C, N and P emissions in stream

  16. Florida Current: seasonal and interannual variability

    SciTech Connect

    Schott, F.; Zantopp, R.

    1985-01-18

    Annual and interannual variations in the Florida Current, Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic are investigated with the use of historical sea level differences and wind field data. Observational and model evidence suggests that the seasonal transport cycle of the Florida Current is locally forced, either upstream in the Caribbean or downstream over topography. Although at seasonal and shorter periods sea level or bottom pressure fluctuations on the left side of the Florida Current contribute almost all of the variance of sea level difference across the Florida Straits and hence transport, this relation does not seem to apply at interannual time scales. Using results from the Subtropical Atlantic Climate Studies, it is estimated from historical sea level data that interannual transport fluctuations of the Florida Current are only of order 1 x 10/sup 6/ cubic meters per second. Interannual fluctuations in the 2- to 3-year period range in the Florida Straits seem to be correlated with sea level differences across the Caribbean and the subtropical Atlantic but not with Sverdrup transport fluctuations in the subtropical Atlantic. 26 references, 2 figures.

  17. An interannual assessment of the relationship between the stable carbon isotopic composition of ecosystem respiration and climate in a high-elevation subalpine forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riveros-Iregui, Diego A.; Hu, Jia; Burns, Sean P.; Bowling, David R.; Monson, Russell K.

    2011-06-01

    We measured the carbon isotopic composition (δ13C) of ecosystem respiration (δ13CR) in a subalpine forest across four growing seasons to examine whether patterns in δ13CR were consistent with those expected based on leaf-level gas-exchange theory, and in agreement with past studies of the relation between δ13CR and climate conducted across broad geographic regions. Conventional trends (i.e., less negative δ13CR with increased vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and air temperature (TAIR), and decreased soil moisture (θ)) were observed when we focused on the driest portions of average-wetness years and when δ13CR was positively correlated with nighttime ecosystem respiration (RE). Nonconventional trends (i.e., more negative δ13CR with decreased θ, and increased VPD and TAIR) were observed under specific climatic conditions (e.g., late snowmelt; extreme TAIR late in the growing season), and when δ13CR was negatively correlated with RE. These nonconventional trends were independently corroborated using δ13C of extracted sugars from needles of dominant tree species at the site. Our results clearly demonstrate that the commonly reported relations between δ13CR and climate may break down depending on the interactions among environmental conditions. Efforts to model and predict the variability of δ13CR under changing climatic variables must characterize and parameterize the effects of unique combinations of weather conditions and variable hydrologic regimes, in combination with the susceptibility of photosynthetic isotope discrimination to extreme air temperatures.

  18. The influence of climate and fructification on the inter-annual variability of stem growth and net primary productivity in an old-growth, mixed beech forest.

    PubMed

    Mund, M; Kutsch, W L; Wirth, C; Kahl, T; Knohl, A; Skomarkova, M V; Schulze, E-D

    2010-06-01

    The periodic production of large seed crops by trees (masting) and its interaction with stem growth has long been the objective of tree physiology research. However, very little is known about the effects of masting on stem growth and total net primary productivity (NPP) at the stand scale. This study was conducted in an old-growth, mixed deciduous forest dominated by Fagus sylvatica (L.) and covers the period from 2003 to 2007, which comprised wet, dry and regular years as well as two masts of Fagus and one mast of the co-dominant tree species Fraxinus excelsior (L.) and Acer pseudoplatanus (L.). We combined analyses of weather conditions and stem growth at the tree level (inter- and intra-annual) with fruit, stem and leaf production, and estimates of total NPP at the stand level. Finally, we compared the annual demand of carbon for biomass production with net canopy assimilation (NCA), derived from eddy covariance flux measurements, chamber measurements and modelling. Annual stem growth of Fagus was most favoured by warm periods in spring and that of Fraxinus by high precipitation in June. For stem growth of Acer and for fruit production, no significant relationships with mean weather conditions were found. Intra-annual stem growth of all species was strongly reduced when the relative plant-available water in soil dropped below a threshold of about 60% between May and July. The inter-annual variations of NCA, total NPP and leaf NPP at the stand level were low (mean values 1313, 662 and 168 g C m(-2) year(-1), respectively), while wood and fruit production varied more and contrarily (wood: 169-241 g C m(-2) year(-1); fruits: 21-142 g C m(-2) year(-1)). In all years, an annual surplus of newly assimilated carbon was calculated (on average 100 g C m(-2) year(-1)). The results suggest that stem growth is generally not limited by insufficient carbon resources; only in mast years a short-term carbon shortage may occur in spring. In contrast to common assumption, stem

  19. Interannual variability of photosynthesis across Africa and its attribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Christopher A.; Hanan, Niall P.; Baker, Ian; Collatz, G. James; Berry, Joseph; Denning, A. Scott

    2008-12-01

    Africa is thought to be a large source of interannual variability in the global carbon cycle, only vaguely attributed to climate fluctuations. This study uses a biophysical model, Simple Biosphere, to examine in detail what specific factors, physiological (acute stress from low soil water, temperature, or low humidity) and biophysical (low vegetation radiation use), are responsible for spatiotemporal patterns of photosynthesis across the African continent during the period 1982-2003. Acute soil water stress emerges as the primary factor driving interannual variability of photosynthesis for most of Africa. Southern savannas and woodlands are a particular hot spot of interannual variability in photosynthesis, owing to high rainfall variability and photosynthetic potential but intermediate annual rainfall. Surprisingly low interannual variability of photosynthesis in much of the Sudano-Sahelian zone derives from relatively low vegetation cover, pronounced humidity stress, and somewhat lower rainfall variability, whereas perennially wet conditions diminish interannual variability in photosynthesis across much of the Congo Basin and coastal West Africa. Though not of focus here, the coefficient of variation in photosynthesis is notably high in drylands and desert margins (i.e., Sahel, Greater Horn, Namib, and Kalahari) having implications for supply of food and fiber. These findings emphasize that when considering impacts of climate change and land surface feedbacks to the atmosphere, it is important to recognize how vegetation, climate, and soil characteristics may conspire to filter or dampen ecosystem responses to hydroclimatic variability.

  20. Interannual and seasonal dynamics, and the age, of nonstructural carbohydrate pools in the stemwood of temperate trees across a climatic gradient in the Northeastern US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richardson, A. D.; Carbone, M. S.; Czimczik, C. I.; Keenan, T. F.; Schaberg, P.; Murakami, P.; Xu, X.

    2012-04-01

    Like all plants, forest trees accumulate and store non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) as resources to be used in the future. This can be viewed as a bet-hedging strategy, providing reserves that the tree can draw on in times of stress—e.g., following disturbance, disease, or extreme climatic events. In the context of climate change, understanding factors influencing the availability of these stored NSC compounds to support growth and metabolism is essential for predicting the resilience of forests to environmental stress factors. We conducted this study to investigate the role of these stored NSC pools in the context of ecosystem C balance at time scales from days to years. At quarterly intervals over a three-year period, we monitored stemwood total NSC concentrations of the dominant tree species of New England. Work was conducted at three sites along a climatic gradient: an oak-dominated transition hardwood forest (Harvard Forest), a maple-beech-birch northern hardwood forest (Bartlett Experimental Forest), and a spruce-fir forest (Howland Forest). We observed large differences among species both in NSC concentrations, and in how the NSC pool is partitioned to different compounds (starch, sucrose, glucose, fructose, raffinose, and stachyose). Within a species, however, seasonal dynamics were remarkably similar across sites. We used the bomb radiocarbon (14C) spike to estimate the average age of the sugars and starches in the NSC pool in a subset of nine maple trees from each site. We found that the age of sugars ranged from 1-24 y and starches from 1-31 y. The ages of sugar and starch pools were highly correlated across all sites, and there was no significant difference in the mean age of the two pools, which was ~11 y. Using a one-pool representation of NSC reserves (similar to the standard approach used in several existing forest C models) our model FöBAAR (FOrest Biomass, Allocation, Assimilation and Respiration) failed to reproduce the seasonal NSC dynamics

  1. Information transfer across the scales of climate variability: The effect of the 7-8 year cycle on the annual and interannual scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palus, Milan; Jajcay, Nikola; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Kravtsov, Sergey; Tsonis, Anastasios

    2016-04-01

    Complexity of the climate system stems not only from the fact that it is variable over a huge range of spatial and temporal scales, but also from the nonlinear character of the climate system that leads to interactions of dynamics across scales. The dynamical processes on large time scales influence variability on shorter time scales. This nonlinear phenomenon of cross-scale causal interactions can be observed due to the recently introduced methodology [1] which starts with a wavelet decomposition of a multi-scale signal into quasi-oscillatory modes of a limited bandwidth, described using their instantaneous phases and amplitudes. Then their statistical associations are tested in order to search for interactions across time scales. An information-theoretic formulation of the generalized, nonlinear Granger causality [2] uncovers causal influence and information transfer from large-scale modes of climate variability with characteristic time scales from years to almost a decade to regional temperature variability on short time scales. In analyses of air temperature records from various European locations, a quasioscillatory phenomenon with the period around 7-8 years has been identified as the factor influencing variability of surface air temperature (SAT) on shorter time scales. Its influence on the amplitude of the SAT annual cycle was estimated in the range 0.7-1.4 °C and the effect on the overall variability of the SAT anomalies (SATA) leads to the changes 1.5-1.7 °C in the annual SATA means. The strongest effect of the 7-8 year cycle was observed in the winter SATA means where it reaches 4-5 °C in central European station and reanalysis data [3]. This study is supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic within the Program KONTAKT II, Project No. LH14001. [1] M. Palus, Phys. Rev. Lett. 112 078702 (2014) [2] M. Palus, M. Vejmelka, Phys. Rev. E 75, 056211 (2007) [3] N. Jajcay, J. Hlinka, S. Kravtsov, A. A. Tsonis, M. Palus, Time

  2. Interannual variability of the South Indian Countercurrent

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menezes, Viviane V.; Phillips, Helen E.; Vianna, Marcio L.; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.

    2016-05-01

    In the present work, we investigate the interannual variability of the South Indian Countercurrent (SICC), a major and still understudied current of the Indian Ocean circulation. To characterize the interannual variability of the SICC, four different data sets (altimetry, GLORYS, OFAM3, and SODA) are analyzed using multiple tools, which include Singular Spectrum Analysis and wavelet methods. The quasi-biennial band dominates the SICC low-frequency variance, with the main peak in the 1.5-1.8 year interval. A secondary peak (2.1-2.5 year) is only found in the western basin. Interannual and decadal-type modulations of the quasi-biennial signal are also identified. In addition, limitations of SODA before the 1960s in the SICC region are revealed. Within the quasi-biennial band, the SICC system presents two main patterns with a multiple jet structure. One pattern is characterized by a robust northern jet, while in the other the central jet is well developed and northern jet is weaker. In both patterns, the southern jet has always a strong signature. When the northern SICC jet is stronger, the northern cell of the subtropical gyre has a triangular shape, with its southern limb having a strong equatorward slant. The quasi-biennial variability of the SICC is probably related to the Indian Ocean tropical climate modes that are known to have a strong biennial characteristic.

  3. The relationship between interannual and long-term cloud feedbacks

    DOE PAGES

    Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Dessler, Andrew E.; Klein, Stephen A.

    2015-12-11

    The analyses of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations suggest that climate models with more positive cloud feedback in response to interannual climate fluctuations also have more positive cloud feedback in response to long-term global warming. Ensemble mean vertical profiles of cloud change in response to interannual and long-term surface warming are similar, and the ensemble mean cloud feedback is positive on both timescales. However, the average long-term cloud feedback is smaller than the interannual cloud feedback, likely due to differences in surface warming pattern on the two timescales. Low cloud cover (LCC) change in response to interannual andmore » long-term global surface warming is found to be well correlated across models and explains over half of the covariance between interannual and long-term cloud feedback. In conclusion, the intermodel correlation of LCC across timescales likely results from model-specific sensitivities of LCC to sea surface warming.« less

  4. Intra- and inter-annual uranium concentration variability in a Belizean stalagmite controlled by prior aragonite precipitation: A new tool for reconstructing hydro-climate using aragonitic speleothems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jamieson, Robert A.; Baldini, James U. L.; Brett, Marianne J.; Taylor, Jessica; Ridley, Harriet E.; Ottley, Chris J.; Prufer, Keith M.; Wassenburg, Jasper A.; Scholz, Denis; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.

    2016-10-01

    Aragonitic speleothems are increasingly utilised as palaeoclimate archives due to their amenability to high precision U-Th dating. Proxy records from fast-growing aragonitic stalagmites, precisely dated to annual timescales, can allow investigation of climatic events occurring on annual or even sub-annual timescales with minimal chronological uncertainty. However, the behaviour of many trace elements, such as uranium, in aragonitic speleothems has not thus far been as well constrained as in calcitic speleothems. Here, we use uranium concentration shifts measured across primary calcite-to-aragonite mineralogical transitions in speleothems to calculate the distribution coefficient of uranium in aragonitic speleothems (derived DU = 3.74 ± 1.13). Because our calculated DU is considerably above 1 increased prior aragonite precipitation due to increased karst water residence time should strongly control stalagmite aragonite U/Ca values. Consequently, uranium concentrations in aragonitic speleothems should act as excellent proxies for effective rainfall. We test this using a high-resolution ICP-MS derived trace element dataset from a Belizean stalagmite. YOK-G is an aragonitic stalagmite from Yok Balum cave in Belize with an extremely robust monthly-resolved chronology built using annual δ13C cycles. We interpret seasonal U/Ca variations in YOK-G as reflecting changes in the amount and seasonality of prior aragonite precipitation driven by variable rainfall amounts. The U/Ca record strongly suggests that modern drying has occurred in Belize, and that this drying was primarily caused by a reduction in wet season rainfall. This is consistent with published stable isotope data from YOK-G also very strongly suggesting modern rainfall reductions, previously interpreted as the result of southward ITCZ displacement. Our results strongly suggest that U/Ca values in aragonitic speleothems are excellent proxies for rainfall variability. This new tool, combined with the

  5. Anatomy of the recurrent coastal sediment plume in Lake Michigan and its impacts on light climate, nutrients, and plankton

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vanderploeg, H. A.; Johengen, T. H.; Lavrentyev, P. J.; Chen, C.; Lang, G. A.; Agy, M. A.; Bundy, M. H.; Cavaletto, J. F.; Eadie, B. J.; Liebig, J. R.; Miller, G. S.; Ruberg, S. A.; McCormick, M. J.

    2007-03-01

    As part of the Episodic Events Great Lakes Experiment, we sampled total suspended matter (TSM), light climate, nutrients, and plankton along cross-margin transects in southern Lake Michigan during February, March, and April 1998-2000 to capture conditions before, during, and after the occurrence of storm-driven recurrent coastal sediment plumes to define the anatomy of the resuspension events and get insights into their interactions with nutrients and plankton. Variability in timing and strength of winter storms among years led to different timing, intensity, and extent of plumes among years. TSM concentrations in the core of plumes varied between 15 and 30 mg L-1, and photic depth was reduced to ˜1 to 2 m, thus potentially seriously limiting phytoplankton growth in plume areas. Total P concentration was highly correlated with TSM and river influence. Chlorophyll concentrations were lower in plume regions than in adjacent areas, in contrast to the relatively constant chlorophyll concentration across the plume predicted by a coupled hydrodynamic and nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton model. Contrary to expectation, protozoan microzooplankton (MZ) biomass was not more abundant in the plume than adjacent waters, but was highest in nearshore areas receiving river inflow. Storms affected horizontal distribution of zooplankton. Because of the lower concentrations of phytoplankton in the plume, the plume over the short term had a negative impact on zooplankton during this food-limiting season. Our results combined with those of other EEGLE studies lead us to conclude that storms and storm-driven plumes had a negative effect on the planktonic food web.

  6. The effect of inter-annual variability of consumption, production, trade and climate on crop-related green and blue water footprints and inter-regional virtual water trade: A study for China (1978-2008).

    PubMed

    Zhuo, La; Mekonnen, Mesfin M; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

    2016-05-01

    Previous studies into the relation between human consumption and indirect water resources use have unveiled the remote connections in virtual water (VW) trade networks, which show how communities externalize their water footprint (WF) to places far beyond their own region, but little has been done to understand variability in time. This study quantifies the effect of inter-annual variability of consumption, production, trade and climate on WF and VW trade, using China over the period 1978-2008 as a case study. Evapotranspiration, crop yields and green and blue WFs of crops are estimated at a 5 × 5 arc-minute resolution for 22 crops, for each year in the study period, thus accounting for climate variability. The results show that crop yield improvements during the study period helped to reduce the national average WF of crop consumption per capita by 23%, with a decreasing contribution to the total from cereals and increasing contribution from oil crops. The total consumptive WFs of national crop consumption and crop production, however, grew by 6% and 7%, respectively. By 2008, 28% of total water consumption in crop fields in China served the production of crops for export to other regions and, on average, 35% of the crop-related WF of a Chinese consumer was outside its own province. Historically, the net VW within China was from the water-rich South to the water-scarce North, but intensifying North-to-South crop trade reversed the net VW flow since 2000, which amounted 6% of North's WF of crop production in 2008. South China thus gradually became dependent on food supply from the water-scarce North. Besides, during the whole study period, China's domestic inter-regional VW flows went dominantly from areas with a relatively large to areas with a relatively small blue WF per unit of crop, which in 2008 resulted in a trade-related blue water loss of 7% of the national total blue WF of crop production. The case of China shows that domestic trade, as governed by

  7. The effect of inter-annual variability of consumption, production, trade and climate on crop-related green and blue water footprints and inter-regional virtual water trade: A study for China (1978-2008).

    PubMed

    Zhuo, La; Mekonnen, Mesfin M; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

    2016-05-01

    Previous studies into the relation between human consumption and indirect water resources use have unveiled the remote connections in virtual water (VW) trade networks, which show how communities externalize their water footprint (WF) to places far beyond their own region, but little has been done to understand variability in time. This study quantifies the effect of inter-annual variability of consumption, production, trade and climate on WF and VW trade, using China over the period 1978-2008 as a case study. Evapotranspiration, crop yields and green and blue WFs of crops are estimated at a 5 × 5 arc-minute resolution for 22 crops, for each year in the study period, thus accounting for climate variability. The results show that crop yield improvements during the study period helped to reduce the national average WF of crop consumption per capita by 23%, with a decreasing contribution to the total from cereals and increasing contribution from oil crops. The total consumptive WFs of national crop consumption and crop production, however, grew by 6% and 7%, respectively. By 2008, 28% of total water consumption in crop fields in China served the production of crops for export to other regions and, on average, 35% of the crop-related WF of a Chinese consumer was outside its own province. Historically, the net VW within China was from the water-rich South to the water-scarce North, but intensifying North-to-South crop trade reversed the net VW flow since 2000, which amounted 6% of North's WF of crop production in 2008. South China thus gradually became dependent on food supply from the water-scarce North. Besides, during the whole study period, China's domestic inter-regional VW flows went dominantly from areas with a relatively large to areas with a relatively small blue WF per unit of crop, which in 2008 resulted in a trade-related blue water loss of 7% of the national total blue WF of crop production. The case of China shows that domestic trade, as governed by

  8. Validation of Interannual Differences of AIRS Monthly Mean Parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Susskind, Joel; Iredell, Lena; Keita, Fricky; Molnar, Gyula

    2005-01-01

    Monthly mean fields of select geophysical parameters derived from analysis of AIRS/AMSU data, and their interannual differences, are shown and compared with analogous fields derived from other sources. All AIRS fields are derived using the AIRS Science Team Version 4 algorithm. Monthly mean results are shown for January 2004, as are interannual differences between January 2004 and January 2003. AIRS temperature and water vapor profile fields are compared with monthly mean collocated ECMWF 3 hour forecast and monthly mean TOVS Pathfinder Path A data. AIRS Tropospheric and Stratospheric coarse climate indicators are compared with analogous MSU products derived by Spencer and christy and found in the TOVS Pathfinder Path A data set. Total ozone is compared with results produced by TOMS. OLR is compared with OLR derived using CERES data and found in the TOVS Pathfinder Path A data set. AIRS results agree well in all cases, especially in the interannual difference sense.

  9. Clusters of interannual sea ice variability in the northern hemisphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fučkar, Neven S.; Guemas, Virginie; Johnson, Nathaniel C.; Massonnet, François; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.

    2016-09-01

    We determine robust modes of the northern hemisphere (NH) sea ice variability on interannual timescales disentangled from the long-term climate change. This study focuses on sea ice thickness (SIT), reconstructed with an ocean-sea-ice general circulation model, because SIT has a potential to contain most of the interannual memory and predictability of the NH sea ice system. We use the K-means cluster analysis—one of clustering methods that partition data into groups or clusters based on their distances in the physical space without the typical constraints of other unsupervised learning statistical methods such as the widely-used principal component analysis. To adequately filter out climate change signal in the Arctic from 1958 to 2013 we have to approximate it with a 2nd degree polynomial. Using 2nd degree residuals of SIT leads to robust K-means cluster patterns, i.e. invariant to further increase of the polynomial degree. A set of clustering validity indices yields K = 3 as the optimal number of SIT clusters for all considered months and seasons with strong similarities in their cluster patterns. The associated time series of cluster occurrences exhibit predominant interannual persistence with mean timescale of about 2 years. Compositing analysis of the NH surface climate conditions associated with each cluster indicates that wind forcing seem to be the key factor driving the formation of interannual SIT cluster patterns during the winter. Climate memory in SIT with such interannual persistence could lead to increased predictability of the Artic sea ice cover beyond seasonal timescales.

  10. Estimating inter-annual runoff variability from global hydroclimatic data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peel, Murray; McMahon, Thomas; Finlayson, Brian

    2016-04-01

    Inter-annual variability of runoff, measured by the coefficient of variation of annual runoff (RCv), is an important constraint on reservoir yield and storage size for water resources management. For a catchment with a fixed storage capacity, any increase in reservoir inflow RCv translates into reduced reservoir yield for a given reliability of supply. Developing an improved understanding of the physical influences on inter-annual runoff variability around the world and how these may change in future is of vital importance to achieving on-going robust water and catchment management. Here we take a large-scale Comparative Hydrology approach to develop empirical relationships for RCv using a global hydroclimatic data set of 588 catchments. Empirical RCv relationships are developed for the World and catchments experiencing predominantly (≥75% catchment area) tropical, arid, temperate or cold climate types. The RCv relationships are developed specifically using non-streamflow based predictor variables so they can be used for predicting RCv in ungauged basins (the PUB problem - Prediction in Ungauged Basins) and or ungauged climates (the PUC problem - Prediction in Ungauged Climates) if past or future projections of the required predictor variables are available. Empirical relationship predictor variables are based on precipitation, evaporative demand, vegetation and topography. Key variables that contribute to explaining RCv in each relationship will be assessed to identify the dominant drivers of RCv and how the contribution of those drivers varies between regions and climate types, with particular focus on inter-annual climate variability.

  11. Terrestrial Waters and Sea Level Variations on Interannual Time Scale

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Llovel, W.; Becker, M.; Cazenave, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; Alkama, R.; Decharme, B.; Douville, H.; Ablain, M.; Beckley, B.

    2011-01-01

    On decadal to multi-decadal time scales, thermal expansion of sea waters and land ice loss are the main contributors to sea level variations. However, modification of the terrestrial water cycle due to climate variability and direct anthropogenic forcing may also affect sea level. For the past decades, variations in land water storage and corresponding effects on sea level cannot be directly estimated from observations because these are almost non-existent at global continental scale. However, global hydrological models developed for atmospheric and climatic studies can be used for estimating total water storage. For the recent years (since mid-2002), terrestrial water storage change can be directly estimated from observations of the GRACE space gravimetry mission. In this study, we analyse the interannual variability of total land water storage, and investigate its contribution to mean sea level variability at interannual time scale. We consider three different periods that, each, depend on data availability: (1) GRACE era (2003-2009), (2) 1993-2003 and (3) 1955-1995. For the GRACE era (period 1), change in land water storage is estimated using different GRACE products over the 33 largest river basins worldwide. For periods 2 and 3, we use outputs from the ISBA-TRIP (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere-Total Runoff Integrating Pathways) global hydrological model. For each time span, we compare change in land water storage (expressed in sea level equivalent) to observed mean sea level, either from satellite altimetry (periods 1 and 2) or tide gauge records (period 3). For each data set and each time span, a trend has been removed as we focus on the interannual variability. We show that whatever the period considered, interannual variability of the mean sea level is essentially explained by interannual fluctuations in land water storage, with the largest contributions arising from tropical river basins.

  12. Simulation of Interannual Variability in the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, S. L.; Govindasamy, B.

    2001-12-01

    Recent observational and modeling studies have shown that the net flux of carbon from the global terrestrial ecosystem is subject to substantial interannual variability. We use an integrated atmospheric general circulation and biosphere dynamics model to investigate the nature and source of this variability in the terrestrial carbon cycle. The Community Climate Model 3 (CCM3) coupled to the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS 2) is used to perform a 16-member ensemble of AMIP-type present day simulations with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the period 1979-1992. Interannual global variations in terrestrial carbon uptake as simulated are of the proper magnitude and have good positive correlation with inferred uptake from observationally driven inverse modeling for the same time period. While our ensemble simulations do permit the extraction of a SST-driven signal, they also show that nearly 65% of interannual variability is driven by "internal" chaotic climate variability not related to variations in SST. This unforced interannual variability in carbon uptake appears to originate mainly from the unforced variability in Net Primary Productivity which in turn is driven by the chaotic variability in interannual precipitation and surface temperature. B06. Water, Energy, and Carbon Cycles in Terrestrial Systems: Measuring and Modeling From Site to Region Sponsor: Biogeosciences Conveners: Beverly Law Oregon State University 328 Richardson Hall, College of Forestry Corvallis, OR 973315752 USA Phone: +1-541-737-6111 fax: +1-541-737-1393 lawb@fsl.orst.edu Peter Thornton University of Montana NTSG, School of Forestry Missoula, MT 59812 USA Phone: +1-406-243-4326 fax: +1-406-243-4510 peter@ntsg.umt.edu Index terms: 0400 1851

  13. Interannual variability of South American monsoon circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alonso Gan, Manoel; Rafaele Araújo Lima, Jeane

    2016-04-01

    The South America Monsoon System (SAMS) is responsible for influencing the atmospheric circulation and precipitation over most of tropical South America (SA) during the summer season. Studies for aiming to understand the temporal variability of this system have great value to the scientific community, because the processes that control the monsoon climate are not totally clear. Thus, the main objective of this research is to investigate the possible large-scale climatic factors and the remote interaction mechanisms, which may be associated with summer season interannual variability focusing on identifying the main differences between dry and wet extremes rainy season in the South-eastern Amazon Basin (SAB), Central-West (WC) and Southeast (SE) of Brazil, which are areas influenced by the summer monsoon regime. For such analyzes, Pearson correlations, quantile method and composite analysis were used during the period from 1979 to 2014. The correlation between precipitation anomaly in SAB and the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and wind at 850hPa and 300hPa indicate El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence. Precipitation anomalies in WC did not show significant correlation with SSTA. However, a pattern similar to ENSO Modoki type was observed in the composite analysis. At 850 hPa, the presence of an anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation was observed over the central region of SA during wet (dry) summers seasons. Over SE region of Brazil, a dipole SSTA pattern over the South Atlantic was identified, as well the presence of anomalous circulations with an equivalent barotropic structure over these SSTA areas. This pattern is more evident in case of dry summer on the SE. At 300 hPa, the wave train between 30°S-60°S was observed presenting a feature curvature from 120°W reaching SA, similar to the Pacific-South American pattern (PSA). Analysis of the summer interannual variability indicated the manifestation of wet summers more frequently than dry

  14. Recurrent varicocele

    PubMed Central

    Rotker, Katherine; Sigman, Mark

    2016-01-01

    Varicocele recurrence is one of the most common complications associated with varicocele repair. A systematic review was performed to evaluate varicocele recurrence rates, anatomic causes of recurrence, and methods of management of recurrent varicoceles. The PubMed database was evaluated using keywords “recurrent” and “varicocele” as well as MESH criteria “recurrent” and “varicocele.” Articles were not included that were not in English, represented single case reports, focused solely on subclinical varicocele, or focused solely on a pediatric population (age <18). Rates of recurrence vary with the technique of varicocele repair from 0% to 35%. Anatomy of recurrence can be defined by venography. Management of varicocele recurrence can be surgical or via embolization. PMID:26806078

  15. Interannual variability of the spatial distribution of sea ice in the north polar region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parkinson, Claire L.

    1991-01-01

    The interannual variability of the monthly average spatial distributions of northern hemisphere sea ice was examined for the 1973-1987 period of the electrically scanning microwave radiometer on the Nimbus 5 satellite and the scanning multichannel microwave radiometer on the Nimbus 7 satellite passive microwave data record. Strong seasonal and spatial contrasts in the amount of interannual variability are mapped and identified. The maps and analyses provide a baseline against which future northern hemisphere sea ice distributions can be compared in the continuing attempt to analyze global climate and to determine whether or not significant climate change is occurring.

  16. Oceanic Control of Northeast Pacific Hurricane Activity at Interannual Timescales

    SciTech Connect

    Balaguru, Karthik; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2013-10-16

    Despite the strong dependence of the Power Dissipation Index (PDI), which is a measure of the intensity of Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity, on tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), the variations in PDI are not completely explained by SST. Here we show, using an analysis of a string of observational data sets, that the variability of the thermocline depth (TD) in the east Pacific exerts a significant degree of control on the variability of PDI in that region. On average, a deep thermocline with a larger reservoir of heat favors TC intensification by reducing SST cooling while a shallow thermocline with a smaller heat reservoir promotes enhanced SST cooling that contributes to TC decay. At interannual time scales, the variability of basin-mean TD accounts for nearly 30% of the variability in the PDI during the TC season. Also, about 20% of the interannual variability in the east Pacific basin-mean TD is due to the El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a dominant climate signal in this region. This study suggests that a better understanding of the factors governing the interannual variability of the TD conditions in the east Pacific and how they may change over time, may lead to an improved projection of future east Pacific TC activity.

  17. High resolution Greenland ice sheet inter-annual mass variations combining GRACE gravimetry and Envisat altimetry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, Xiaoli; Shum, C. K.; Guo, Junyi; Duan, Jianbin; Howat, Ian; Yi, Yuchan

    2015-07-01

    Inter-annual mass variations of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) are important for improving mass balance estimates, validation of atmospheric circulation models and their potential improvement. By combining observed inter-annual variations from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Environmental Satellite (Envisat) altimetry data over the period from January 2003 to December 2009, we are able to estimate the nominal density, with the objective of obtaining higher resolution mass changes using altimeter data at the inter-annual scale. We find high correlations between these two inter-annual variations on the order of 0.7 over 60% of the GrIS, in particular over the west side along the central ice divide. Significant negative correlations are found in parts of Northeast and Southeast GrIS, where negative inter-annual variation correlations were also found between mass change from GRACE and snow depth from ECMWF reanalysis in a previous study. In the regions of positive correlation, the estimated nominal densities range from 383.7 ± 50.9 to 596.2 ± 34.1 kgm-3. We demonstrate the feasibility of obtaining high-resolution inter-annual mass variation over Southwest GrIS, one of the regions with positive correlations, based on density-corrected Envisat altimetry, 2003-2009. A definitive explanation for the existence of regions of negative correlation remains elusive.

  18. Inter-annual sea level variability in the southern South China Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soumya, M.; Vethamony, P.; Tkalich, P.

    2015-10-01

    The South China Sea (SCS) is the largest marginal sea in the western Pacific Basin. Sea level anomalies (SLAs) in the southern South China Sea (SSCS) are assumed to be governed by various phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. We have used monthly sea level anomalies obtained from 12 tide gauge stations of PSMSL and UHSLC and merged and gridded AVISO products of SLAs (sea level anomalies) derived from satellite altimeter. We find that IOD-influenced inter-annual variations are found only in the southwestern and southeastern coastal regions of SSCS. Our analysis reveals that inter-annual regional sea level drops are associated with positive phase of the IOD, and the rises with negative phase of the IOD. SLA variations at decadal scale in the southeastern and northern Gulf of Thailand correlate with Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO). Multiple linear regression analysis of inter-annual SLAs and climate indices shows that IOD induced inter-annual variations dominate in the southwestern SCS and it contributes to about ~ 40% of inter-annual sea level variation. Meanwhile, ENSO contributes to around ~ 30% variation in sea level in the southwestern and ~ 40% variation in the southeastern SSCS. The present study also suggests that inter-annual SLA variations in the SSCS can occur by ENSO and IOD induced changes in wind stress curl and volume transport variations.

  19. Evaluation of RegCM4 in simulating the interannual and interdecadal variations of Meiyu rainfall in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Yijia; Zhong, Zhong; Lu, Wei; Zhang, Yaocun; Sun, Yuan

    2016-05-01

    In this paper, the performance of the regional climate model (RegCM4) in simulating the interannual and interdecadal variation of Meiyu rainfall over lower and middle reaches of Yangtze River (LMRYR) in China is evaluated. The results show that the bias of the simulated Meiyu rainfall exhibits some uncertainties and obvious interdecadal variation similar with that of Meiyu rainfall itself. The rainfall bias and its interdecadal variation have little impact on the simulation of the interannual variation of the Meiyu rainfall. Not only the amplitude but also the phase of the interannual variation of the Meiyu rainfall can be reproduced by the RegCM4. However, the interdecadal variation of the rainfall bias has large impacts on the model's performance in simulating the interdecadal component of the Meiyu rainfall, leading to lower skill of RegCM4 in simulating the interdecadal variation of the Meiyu rainfall than that in simulating the interannual variation. In addition, the interannual signals of the temperature, humidity, and vorticity in the lower troposphere in the large-scale NCEP lateral boundary force are stronger than the interdecadal signals, and the model can respond well to these interannual signals. Therefore, the RegCM4 has better performance in simulating the interannual variation of water vapor budget than the interdecadal variation, which further favors the simulation of the Meiyu rainfall at interannual time scale.

  20. The interannual variability of polar CAP recessions as a measure of Martian climate and weather: Using Earth-based data to augment the time line for the Mars observer mapping mission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, L. J.; James, P. B.

    The recessions of the polar ice caps are the most visible and most studied indication of seasonal change on Mars. Circumstantial evidence links these recessions to the seasonal cycles of CO2, water, and dust. The possible advent of a planet encircling storm during the Mars Observer (MO) mission will provide a detailed correlation with a cap recession for that one Martian year. That cap recession will then be compared with other storm and nonstorm years. MO data will also provide a stronger link between cap recessions and the water and CO2 cycles. Cap recession variability might also be used to determine the variability of these cycles. After nearly a century of valiant attempts at measuring polar cap recessions, including Mariner 9 and Viking data, MO will provide the first comprehensive dataset. In contrast to MO, the older data are much less detailed and precise and could be forgotten, except that it will still be the only information on interannual variability. By obtaining simultaneous Earth-based observations (including those from Hubble) during the MO mission, direct comparisons can be made between the datasets.

  1. The interannual variability of polar cap recessions as a measure of Martian climate and weather: Using Earth-based data to augment the time line for the Mars observer mapping mission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martin, L. J.; James, P. B.

    1992-01-01

    The recessions of the polar ice caps are the most visible and most studied indication of seasonal change on Mars. Circumstantial evidence links these recessions to the seasonal cycles of CO2, water, and dust. The possible advent of a planet encircling storm during the Mars Observer (MO) mission will provide a detailed correlation with a cap recession for that one Martian year. That cap recession will then be compared with other storm and nonstorm years. MO data will also provide a stronger link between cap recessions and the water and CO2 cycles. Cap recession variability might also be used to determine the variability of these cycles. After nearly a century of valiant attempts at measuring polar cap recessions, including Mariner 9 and Viking data, MO will provide the first comprehensive dataset. In contrast to MO, the older data are much less detailed and precise and could be forgotten, except that it will still be the only information on interannual variability. By obtaining simultaneous Earth-based observations (including those from Hubble) during the MO mission, direct comparisons can be made between the datasets.

  2. Marine and terrestrial influences on interannual CO{sub 2} variations at Mauna Loa and the South Pole

    SciTech Connect

    Dettinger, M.D.; Ghil, M.

    1997-11-01

    Data are presented and very briefly discussed regarding interannual variations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) concentrations. Interannual variations are isolated from monthly concentrations by using singular-spectrum analysis of CO{sub 2} and atmospheric carbon isotopic ratios at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, United States and at the South Pole. Interannual variations are shared at the two sites, and can be used to differentiate between marine and land-surface responses to different interannual climate variations on global scales. Two time-scales are compared: (1) quasi-quadrennial (QQ) and (2) 3-year. Phase relations indicate that QQ variations are dominated by terrestrial influences, whereas the 3-year variations reflect marine (upwelling) influences in the eastern Pacific. The contrasting CO{sub 2} responses on these two time scales thus provide a useful measure of differences in global climate responses, and especially in terrestrial-ecosystem responses to different tropical forcings. 1 fig.

  3. Interannual Atmospheric Variability Simulated by a Mars GCM: Impacts on the Polar Regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, R. M.; Hollingsworth, J. L.

    2003-01-01

    It is often assumed that in the absence of year-to-year dust variations, Mars weather and climate are very repeatable, at least on decadal scales. Recent multi-annual simulations of a Mars GCM reveal however that significant interannual variations may occur with constant dust conditions. In particular, interannual variability (IAV) appears to be associated with the spectrum of atmospheric disturbances that arise due to baroclinic instability. One quantity that shows significant IAV is the poleward heat flux associated with these waves. These variations and their impacts on the polar heat balance will be examined here.

  4. North-South precipitation patterns in western North America on interannual-to-decadal timescales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Diaz, Henry F.; Meko, D.M.

    1998-01-01

    The overall amount of precipitation deposited along the West Coast and western cordillera of North America from 25??to 55??N varies from year to year, and superimposed on this domain-average variability are varying north-south contrasts on timescales from at least interannual to interdecadal. In order to better understand the north-south precipitation contrasts, their interannual and decadal variations are studied in terms of how much they affect overall precipitation amounts and how they are related to large-scale climatic patterns. Spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and spatial moments (domain average, central latitude, and latitudinal spread) of zonally averaged precipitation anomalies along the westernmost parts of North America are analyzed, and each is correlated with global sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature series, on interannual (defined here as 3-7 yr) and decadal (>7 yr) timescales. The interannual band considered here corresponds to timescales that are particularly strong in tropical climate variations and thus is expected to contain much precipitation variability that is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation; the decadal scale is defined so as to capture the whole range of long-term climatic variations affecting western North America. Zonal EOFs of the interannual and decadal filtered versions of the zonal-precipitation series are remarkably similar. At both timescales, two leading EOFs describe 1) a north-south seesaw of precipitation pivoting near 40??N and 2) variations in precipitation near 40??N, respectively. The amount of overall precipitation variability is only about 10% of the mean and is largely determined by precipitation variations around 40??-45??N and most consistently influenced by nearby circulation patterns; in this sense, domain-average precipitation is closely related to the second EOF. The central latitude and latitudinal spread of precipitation distributions are strongly influenced by precipitation

  5. Reduced interannual rainfall variability in East Africa during the last ice age.

    PubMed

    Wolff, Christian; Haug, Gerald H; Timmermann, Axel; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S; Brauer, Achim; Sigman, Daniel M; Cane, Mark A; Verschuren, Dirk

    2011-08-01

    Interannual rainfall variations in equatorial East Africa are tightly linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with more rain and flooding during El Niño and droughts in La Niña years, both having severe impacts on human habitation and food security. Here we report evidence from an annually laminated lake sediment record from southeastern Kenya for interannual to centennial-scale changes in ENSO-related rainfall variability during the last three millennia and for reductions in both the mean rate and the variability of rainfall in East Africa during the Last Glacial period. Climate model simulations support forward extrapolation from these lake sediment data that future warming will intensify the interannual variability of East Africa's rainfall.

  6. Interannual variability of monthly sea-ice distributions in the north polar region

    SciTech Connect

    Parkinson, C.L.

    1992-03-01

    Passive-microwave data from the Nimbus 5 and Nimbus 7 satellites have been used to determine and map, by month, the interannual variability of the spatial distribution of north polar sea ice over the period 1973-1987. Results are illustrated for the months of January and July, during the winter ice growth and summer ice decay seasons, respectively. In January, the greatest interannual variability in the distribution of the ice occurs in the Sea of Okhotsk, whereas the portions of the ice edge exhibiting the least interannual variability lie in the southern Greenland Sea and immediately to the southwest of Svalbard. In July, spatial variability is high in Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay, the southern Kara Sea, and the northern Barents Sea. The monthly maps are meant to allow ready comparison with past and future sea ice distributions and aid in the assessment of whether specific changes are climatically important.

  7. Reduced Interannual Rainfall Variability in East Africa During the Last Ice Age

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolff, Christian; Haug, Gerald H.; Timmermann, Axel; Damsté, Jaap S. Sinninghe; Brauer, Achim; Sigman, Daniel M.; Cane, Mark A.; Verschuren, Dirk

    2011-08-01

    Interannual rainfall variations in equatorial East Africa are tightly linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with more rain and flooding during El Niño and droughts in La Niña years, both having severe impacts on human habitation and food security. Here we report evidence from an annually laminated lake sediment record from southeastern Kenya for interannual to centennial-scale changes in ENSO-related rainfall variability during the last three millennia and for reductions in both the mean rate and the variability of rainfall in East Africa during the Last Glacial period. Climate model simulations support forward extrapolation from these lake sediment data that future warming will intensify the interannual variability of East Africa’s rainfall.

  8. Recurrent novae

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hack, Margherita; Selvelli, Pierluigi

    1993-01-01

    Recurrent novae seem to be a rather inhomogeneous group: T CrB is a binary with a M III companion; U Sco probably has a late dwarf as companion. Three are fast novae; two are slow novae. Some of them appear to have normal chemical composition; others may present He and CNO excess. Some present a mass-loss that is lower by two orders of magnitude than classical novae. However, our sample is too small for saying whether there are several classes of recurrent novae, which may be related to the various classes of classical novae, or whether the low mass-loss is a general property of the class or just a peculiarity of one member of the larger class of classical novae and recurrent novae.

  9. Interannual variability of tropospheric trace gases and aerosols: The role of biomass burning emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Marlier, Miriam E.; Faluvegi, Greg; Shindell, Drew T.; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Mangeon, Stéphane

    2015-07-01

    Fires are responsible for a range of gaseous and aerosol emissions. However, their influence on the interannual variability of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols has not been systematically investigated from a global perspective. We examine biomass burning emissions as a driver of interannual variability of large-scale abundances of short-lived constituents such as carbon monoxide (CO), hydroxyl radicals (OH), ozone, and aerosols using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE composition-climate model and a range of observations, with an emphasis on satellite information. Our model captures the observed variability of the constituents examined in most cases, but with substantial underestimates in boreal regions. The strongest interannual variability on a global scale is found for carbon monoxide (~10% for its global annual burden), while the lowest is found for tropospheric ozone (~1% for its global annual burden). Regionally, aerosol optical depth shows the largest variability which exceeds 50%. Areas of strong variability of both aerosols and CO include the tropical land regions (especially Equatorial Asia and South America) and northern high latitudes, while even regions in the northern midlatitudes experience substantial interannual variability of aerosols. Ozone variability peaks over equatorial Asia in boreal autumn, partly due to varying biomass burning emissions, and over the western and central Pacific in the rest of the year, mainly due to meteorological fluctuations. We find that biomass burning emissions are almost entirely responsible for global CO interannual variability, and similarly important for OH variability. The same is true for global and regional aerosol variability, especially when not taking into account dust and sea-salt particles. We show that important implications can arise from such interannual influences for regional climate and air quality.

  10. ENSO Modulations due to Interannual Variability of Freshwater Forcing and Ocean Biology-induced Heating in the Tropical Pacific.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Rong-Hua; Gao, Chuan; Kang, Xianbiao; Zhi, Hai; Wang, Zhanggui; Feng, Licheng

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have identified clear climate feedbacks associated with interannual variations in freshwater forcing (FWF) and ocean biology-induced heating (OBH) in the tropical Pacific. The interrelationships among the related anomaly fields are analyzed using hybrid coupled model (HCM) simulations to illustrate their combined roles in modulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The HCM-based supporting experiments are performed to isolate the related feedbacks, with interannually varying FWF and OBH being represented individually or collectively, which allows their effects to be examined in a clear way. It is demonstrated that the interannual freshwater forcing enhances ENSO variability and slightly prolongs the simulated ENSO period, while the interannual OBH reduces ENSO variability and slightly shortens the ENSO period, with their feedback effects tending to counteract each other.

  11. Interannual variability of winter precipitation in Southeast China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ling; Fraedrich, Klaus; Zhu, Xiuhua; Sielmann, Frank; Zhi, Xiefei

    2015-01-01

    The observed winter (DJF) precipitation in Southeast China (1961-2010) is characterized by a monopole pattern of the 3-monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3) whose interannual variability is related to the anomalies of East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) systems. Dynamic composites and linear regression analysis indicate that the intensity of EAWM and Siberia High (SH), the position of East Asian Trough (EAT), and El Niño events and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over South China Sea (SCS) influence different regions of anomalous Southeast China winter precipitation on interannual scales. The circulation indices (EAWM index, SH index, and EAT index) mainly affect the winter precipitation in the eastern part of Southeast China. El Niño events affect the South China winter precipitation due to the anticyclone anomalies over Philippines. The effect of SCS SST anomalies on the winter precipitation is mainly in the southern part of Yangtze River. Thus, a set of circulation regimes, represented by a handful indices, provide the basis for modeling precipitation anomalies or extremes in future climate projections.

  12. Interannual variability of NDVI and bird species diversity in Kenya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oindo, Boniface O.; de By, Rolf A.; Skidmore, Andrew K.

    Species richness, or simply the number of species in a given area, is commonly used as an important indicator of biological diversity. Spatial variability in species richness has been postulated to depend upon environmental factors such as climate and climatic variability, which in turn may affect net primary productivity. The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been shown to be correlated with climatic variables including rainfall, actual evapotranspiration and net primary productivity. To determine factors favoring high species richness, we examined the relationship between interannual NDVI variables and species richness of birds at a quarter degree scale (55 × 55 km). Results revealed a strong positive correlation between species richness and maximum average NDVI. Conversely, species richness showed negative correlation with standard deviation of maximum NDVI and the coefficient of variation. Though these relationships are indirect, they apparently operate through the green vegetation cover. Understanding such relationships can help in mapping and monitoring biological diversity, as well as in estimating changes in species richness in response to global climatic change.

  13. Interannual variability of deep convection in the Northwestern Mediterranean simulated with a coupled AORCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    L'Hévéder, Blandine; Li, Laurent; Sevault, Florence; Somot, Samuel

    2013-08-01

    A hindcast experiment of the Mediterranean present-day climate is performed using a fully-coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Regional Climate Model (AORCM) for the Mediterranean basin. The new model, called LMDz-NEMO-Med, is composed of LMDz4-regional as atmospheric component and of NEMOMED8 as oceanic component. This AORCM equilibrates freely, without any flux adjustment, neither in fresh water nor in heat. At its atmospheric lateral boundary conditions, it is driven by ERA-40 data from 1958 to 2001, after a spin-up of 40 years in coupled configuration. The model performance is assessed and compared with available observational datasets. The model skill in reproducing mean state and inter-annual variability of main atmospheric and oceanic surface fields is in line with that of state-of-the-art AORCMs. Considering the ocean behaviour, the inter-annual variations of the basin-scale heat content are in very good agreement with the observations. The model results concerning salt content could not be adequately validated. High inter-annual variability of deep convection in the Gulf of Lion is simulated, with 53 % of convective winters, representative of the present climate state. The role of different factors influencing the deep convection and its inter-annual variability is examined, including dynamic and hydrostatic ocean preconditioning and atmospheric surface forcing. A conceptual framework is outlined and validated in linking the occurrence of deep convection to the efficiency of the integrated surface buoyancy fluxes along the winter season to mix the initially stratified averaged water column down to the convective threshold depth. This simple framework (based only on 2 independent variables) is able to explain 60 % (resp. 69 %) of inter-annual variability of the deep water formation rate (resp. maximum mixed layer depth) for the West Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW) formation process.

  14. Interannual bottom pressure changes in the Arafura Sea and the remote influence of equatorial Pacific winds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ponte, R. M.; Piecuch, C. G.; Quinn, K. J.

    2012-12-01

    Ocean bottom pressure (OBP) is a crucial quantity for understanding changes in ocean circulation and climate, yet general knowledge of its regional variability on climate timescales is lacking. General circulation modeling studies suggest that interannual OBP changes can contribute importantly to low frequency variability in shallow shelf regions, but this suggestion has not been investigated using observations. Taking advantage of recently released ocean mass data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) as well as an ocean general circulation model, we investigate the nature of interannual OBP variability in the Arafura Sea between Australia and Papua New Guinea. In this region, time series from model and data agree very well (correlation coefficients >0.9), attesting to the presence of OBP variations of order 1 cm sea level equivalent with long periods (>1 yr) over large spatial scales (>750 km). These OBP changes explain most of the interannual sea level variance in this region. Moreover, these interannual OBP time series are significantly correlated with ENSO indices (correlation coefficients >0.8), suggesting ties to broader scale climate variability. Through numerical forcing experiments, we demonstrate explicitly that the OBP changes in the Arafura Sea derive mostly from remote wind forcing over the equatorial Pacific, with local wind driving playing only a minor role. A mixture of equatorially- and coastally-trapped waves is likely involved in what is primarily a baroclinic response to remote winds that leads to a strongly barotropic signal in the shallow Arafura Sea. These results suggest meaningful low frequency signals reside in GRACE data and encourage the further use of GRACE fields for investigations of regional oceanic variability on climate timescales.

  15. What is the Effect of Interannual Hydroclimatic Variability on Water Supply Reservoir Operations?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galelli, S.; Turner, S. W. D.

    2015-12-01

    Rather than deriving from a single distribution and uniform persistence structure, hydroclimatic data exhibit significant trends and shifts in their mean, variance, and lagged correlation through time. Consequentially, observed and reconstructed streamflow records are often characterized by features of interannual variability, including long-term persistence and prolonged droughts. This study examines the effect of these features on the operating performance of water supply reservoirs. We develop a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) model that can incorporate a regime-shifting climate variable. We then compare the performance of operating policies—designed with and without climate variable—to quantify the contribution of interannual variability to standard policy sub-optimality. The approach uses a discrete-time Markov chain to partition the reservoir inflow time series into small number of 'hidden' climate states. Each state defines a distinct set of inflow transition probability matrices, which are used by the SDP model to condition the release decisions on the reservoir storage, current-period inflow and hidden climate state. The experimental analysis is carried out on 99 hypothetical water supply reservoirs fed from pristine catchments in Australia—all impacted by the Millennium drought. Results show that interannual hydroclimatic variability is a major cause of sub-optimal hedging decisions. The practical import is that conventional optimization methods may misguide operators, particularly in regions susceptible to multi-year droughts.

  16. Interannual Variability of Ozone and Ultraviolet Exposure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Herman, J. R.; Piacentini, R. D.; Ziemke, J.; Celarier, E.; Larko. D.

    1999-01-01

    Annual zonal averages of ozone amounts from Nimbus-7/TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) (1979 to 1992) are used to estimate the interannual variability of ozone and UVB (290 - 315 nm) irradiance between plus or minus 60 deg. latitude. Clear-sky interannual ozone and UVB changes are mainly caused by the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric winds, and can amount to plus or minus 15% at 300 nm and plus or minus 5% at 310 nm (or erythemal irradiance) at the equator and at middle latitudes. Near the equator, the interannual variability of ozone amounts and UV irradiance caused by the combination of the 2.3 year QBO and annual cycles implies that there is about a 5-year periodicity in UVB variability. At higher latitudes, the appearance of the interannual UVB maximum is predicted by the QBO, but without the regular periodicity. The 5-year periodic QBO effects on UVB irradiance are larger than the currently evaluated long-term changes caused by the decrease in ozone amounts.

  17. Interannual variability in temperature and precipitation alone cannot explain Holocene glacier fluctuations in the Southern Alps of New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doughty, Alice; Mackintosh, Andrew; Anderson, Brian; Putnam, Aaron; Dadic, Ruzica; Barrell, David; Denton, George; Chinn, Trevor; Schaefer, Joerg

    2016-04-01

    Several glacial modeling studies suggest that interannual climate variability within an unchanged mean climate state can cause large fluctuations in glacier length (~1 km), which would complicate interpretations of moraine records as proxy evidence of past climatic change. We modeled glacier fluctuations forced by stochastic variability in mean annual temperature and total annual precipitation and compared them to the mapped and dated Holocene moraine sequence in the Cameron valley, New Zealand. Using a 2D coupled mass balance - ice flow model, we simulated interannual mass balance, ice volume, and glacier length changes and show that stochastic variability does not cause large advances (>300 m) of the Cameron Glacier. We suggest that the glacier has been responding to shifts in the mean climate, and thus its moraine record is a valuable indicator of past climate.

  18. Interannual atmospheric variability forced by the deep equatorial Atlantic Ocean.

    PubMed

    Brandt, Peter; Funk, Andreas; Hormann, Verena; Dengler, Marcus; Greatbatch, Richard J; Toole, John M

    2011-05-26

    Climate variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is determined by large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions, which particularly affect deep atmospheric convection over the ocean and surrounding continents. Apart from influences from the Pacific El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, the tropical Atlantic variability is thought to be dominated by two distinct ocean-atmosphere coupled modes of variability that are characterized by meridional and zonal sea-surface-temperature gradients and are mainly active on decadal and interannual timescales, respectively. Here we report evidence that the intrinsic ocean dynamics of the deep equatorial Atlantic can also affect sea surface temperature, wind and rainfall in the tropical Atlantic region and constitutes a 4.5-yr climate cycle. Specifically, vertically alternating deep zonal jets of short vertical wavelength with a period of about 4.5 yr and amplitudes of more than 10 cm s(-1) are observed, in the deep Atlantic, to propagate their energy upwards, towards the surface. They are linked, at the sea surface, to equatorial zonal current anomalies and eastern Atlantic temperature anomalies that have amplitudes of about 6 cm s(-1) and 0.4 °C, respectively, and are associated with distinct wind and rainfall patterns. Although deep jets are also observed in the Pacific and Indian oceans, only the Atlantic deep jets seem to oscillate on interannual timescales. Our knowledge of the persistence and regularity of these jets is limited by the availability of high-quality data. Despite this caveat, the oscillatory behaviour can still be used to improve predictions of sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic. Deep-jet generation and upward energy transmission through the Equatorial Undercurrent warrant further theoretical study.

  19. Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Primary Production at a Global Scale

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rousseaux, Cecile Severine; Gregg, Watson W.

    2013-01-01

    We used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of four phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. First, we assessed the contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production at a global scale for the period 1998-2011. Globally, diatoms contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production ((is)approximately 50%, the equivalent of 20 PgC·y1). Coccolithophores and chlorophytes each contributed approximately 20% ((is) approximately 7 PgC·y1) of the total primary production and cyanobacteria represented about 10% ((is) approximately 4 PgC·y1) of the total primary production. Primary production by diatoms was highest in the high latitudes ((is) greater than 40 deg) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We then assessed interannual variability of this group-specific primary production over the period 1998-2011. Globally the annual relative contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production varied by maximum 4% (1-2 PgC·y1). We assessed the effects of climate variability on group-specific primary production using global (i.e., Multivariate El Niño Index, MEI) and "regional" climate indices (e.g., Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability as indicated by significant correlation (p (is) less than 0.05) between the MEI and the group-specific primary production from all groups except coccolithophores. In the Atlantic, climate variability as indicated by NAO was significantly correlated to the primary production of 2 out of the 4 groups in the North Central Atlantic (diatoms/cyanobacteria) and in the North Atlantic (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). We found that climate variability as indicated by SAM had only a limited effect

  20. Response of tree cover to interannual rainfall variability: the balance of direct and indirect effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, K.; D'Odorico, P.; Saha, M.; Ratajczak, Z.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change studies predict an increase both in seasonal and interannual rainfall variability. The impact of such variability on vegetation composition and ecosystem processes is not well understood. Using satellite data or model simulations, previous studies have reported mixed responses of tree cover to interannual rainfall variability in the tropic (i.e., neutral, positive, or negative). The underlying mechanisms behind such patterns, however, are still unclear. This study uses satellite data and develops a new mechanistic model to investigate the response of tree cover to increasing interannual rainfall variability along Kalahari Transect in Southern Africa. This model accounts for the competition between trees and grasses in access to soil water, fire-induced disturbance, and a demographic bottleneck in tree recruitment. Both satellite data and model results show an increase in tree cover with increasing interannual rainfall fluctuations in dry environments (i.e., mean annual rainfall, MAP<700 mm) but a decrease in tree cover in wet environments (i.e., MAP>700 mm). In dry environments, an increase in interannual rainfall variability disfavors grasses with shallow roots, thereby reducing fire-induced mortality in tree seedlings and opening windows of opportunity for tree recruitment (i.e., indirect effects). In wet environments, an increase in interannual rainfall variability leads to more instances of mass flow below the rooting zone of tree seedlings and thus reduces tree recruitment rate (i.e., direct effects). This study highlights the importance of accounting for the direct effects of rainfall variability on trees and the indirect effects mediated by tree-grass interactions to better understand how tree cover respond to increase in rainfall variability along rainfall gradients.

  1. Enhanced interannual precipitation variability increases plant functional diversity that in turn ameliorates negative impact on productivity.

    PubMed

    Gherardi, Laureano A; Sala, Osvaldo E

    2015-12-01

    Although precipitation interannual variability is projected to increase due to climate change, effects of changes in precipitation variance have received considerable less attention than effects of changes in the mean state of climate. Interannual precipitation variability effects on functional diversity and its consequences for ecosystem functioning are assessed here using a 6-year rainfall manipulation experiment. Five precipitation treatments were switched annually resulting in increased levels of precipitation variability while maintaining average precipitation constant. Functional diversity showed a positive response to increased variability due to increased evenness. Dominant grasses decreased and rare plant functional types increased in abundance because grasses showed a hump-shaped response to precipitation with a maximum around modal precipitation, whereas rare species peaked at high precipitation values. Increased functional diversity ameliorated negative effects of precipitation variability on primary production. Rare species buffered the effect of precipitation variability on the variability in total productivity because their variance decreases with increasing precipitation variance. PMID:26437913

  2. Enhanced interannual precipitation variability increases plant functional diversity that in turn ameliorates negative impact on productivity.

    PubMed

    Gherardi, Laureano A; Sala, Osvaldo E

    2015-12-01

    Although precipitation interannual variability is projected to increase due to climate change, effects of changes in precipitation variance have received considerable less attention than effects of changes in the mean state of climate. Interannual precipitation variability effects on functional diversity and its consequences for ecosystem functioning are assessed here using a 6-year rainfall manipulation experiment. Five precipitation treatments were switched annually resulting in increased levels of precipitation variability while maintaining average precipitation constant. Functional diversity showed a positive response to increased variability due to increased evenness. Dominant grasses decreased and rare plant functional types increased in abundance because grasses showed a hump-shaped response to precipitation with a maximum around modal precipitation, whereas rare species peaked at high precipitation values. Increased functional diversity ameliorated negative effects of precipitation variability on primary production. Rare species buffered the effect of precipitation variability on the variability in total productivity because their variance decreases with increasing precipitation variance.

  3. Interannual and Interdecadal Variability in Sea Level.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Unal, Yurdanur Sezginer

    The observational data set archived by the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) consists of monthly means of sea-level heights at 846 stations. 213 of them are suitable for our purposes. We identified two dominant time scales of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal, as quasi-biennial and low-frequency (LF) at almost all stations, with the highest amplitudes in the equatorial Pacific and along the west coast of North America. Global sea-level rise, after post-glacial rebound corrections, are 1.620.38 mm/yr. Propagation features of the interannual variability are studied along the coastal sea level stations in five regions: eastern, western, and equatorial Pacific; eastern and western Atlantic. Throughout the Pacific, three dominant spatio-temporal oscillatory patterns are found in the time scales of ENSO variability. In the eastern Pacific, the biennial mode and the 6-yr low-frequency mode propagate poleward. In the western Pacific, interannual oscillation propagates southward in the northern hemisphere but no clear propagation is observed in the southern hemisphere. Equatorward propagation of the biennial signal is very clear in each hemisphere. In the equatorial Pacific, both the quasi -quadrannial and quasi-biennial modes at 10^ circN propagate westward. Strong and weak El Nino years are evident in RSLH reconstructed from the biennial and low-frequency modes. Interannual variability with periods of 3 and 4-8 years is detected in the Atlantic RSLH data. In the eastern Atlantic region, we have found slow propagation of both modes northward and southward, away from 40-45^circN. Sufficiently long and continuous RSLH at 81 stations show interdecadal oscillations with the periods of 9-13 and 18 years. 11.6 and 12.8 years of oscillations are found in the eastern and western Atlantic ocean at latitudes 40^circN-70^ circN and 10^circN -50^circN, respectively. The aforementioned features are simulated with a wind driven ocean model for the periods of 1950 and

  4. Understanding the Role of Interannual Variability and Momentum Transfer on Wind Energy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koerner, S.; Brunsell, N. A.; Miller, L.; Mechem, D. B.

    2014-12-01

    Forecasting realistic wind power potential is essential for wind energy to assist with meeting future energy demands. Current wind power estimates rely on the use of mean climatological wind speeds. This approach to estimating wind power neglects the influence of momentum extraction by the turbines (i.e. turbine-turbine interactions) and interannual variability in windspeed. The present study will use a wind turbine parameterization within the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model to assess the role of interannual and climatic variability on power extraction. The WRF model will be forced by NARR, and run from 1980-2010 to incorporate different climatic conditions over the central United States. Analysis focusses on the role of climate variability on wind power extraction; specifically on the role of drought and wet periods, as well as variability in the Great Plains Low Level Jet. In addition, WRF will be used to assess the impact of wind turbines on each term of the momentum budget. Understanding the impact of interannual variability will improve our understanding of the role that wind power can play in meeting future energy demands.

  5. Controls on interannual variability in lightning-caused fire activity in the western US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abatzoglou, John T.; Kolden, Crystal A.; Balch, Jennifer K.; Bradley, Bethany A.

    2016-04-01

    Lightning-caused wildfires account for a majority of burned area across the western United States (US), yet lightning remains among the more unpredictable spatiotemporal aspects of the fire environment and a challenge for both modeling and managing fire activity. A data synthesis of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, climate and fire data across the western US from 1992 to 2013 was conducted to better understand geographic variability in lightning-caused wildfire and the factors that influence interannual variability in lightning-caused wildfire at regional scales. Distinct geographic variability occurred in the proportion of fires and area burned attributed to lightning, with a majority of fires in the interior western US attributed to lightning. Lightning ignition efficiency was highest across the western portion of the region due to the concomitance of peak lightning frequency and annual nadir in fuel moisture in mid-to-late summer. For most regions the number of total and dry lightning strikes exhibited strong interannual correlation with the number of lightning-caused fires, yet were a poor predictor of area burned at regional scales. Commonality in climate-fire relationships for regional annual area burned by lightning- versus human-ignited fires suggests climate conditions, rather than lightning activity, are the predominant control of interannual variability in area burned by lightning-caused fire across much of the western US.

  6. Interannual variability in the surface energy budget and evaporation over a large southern inland water in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Qianyu; Liu, Heping

    2013-05-01

    Understanding how the surface energy budget and evaporation over inland waters respond to climate change and variability remains limited. Here we report 2 year measurements of the surface energy budget using the eddy covariance method over Ross Barnett Reservoir, Mississippi, USA, for 2008 and 2009. Annual mean sensible (H) and latent (LE) heat fluxes in 2008 were 9.5%, and 10.0% greater than in 2009, respectively. Most of the interannual variations in the surface energy fluxes and meteorological variables primarily occurred in the cool seasons from October to March, which was enhanced by frequent large wind events associated with cold front passages. These large wind events greatly promoted H and LE exchange and produced H and LE pulses that increased variations in H and LE between these two cool seasons. In the warm seasons from April to September, H and LE pulses were also present, which largely increased variations in LE and dampened those in H between the two warm seasons. The H and LE pulses contributed to approximately 50% of the annual H and 28% of the annual LE, although they only covered about 16% of the entire year. The interannual variations in H and LE pulses contributed to about 78% of the interannual variations in H and 40% of those in LE. Our results imply that the increased interannual variability in cold front activities as a result of climate change would amplify interannual variations in the evaporation and the surface energy exchange over inland waters in this region.

  7. Interannual variability of the coupled tropical Pacific ocean - atmosphere system associated with the El Nino-southern oscillation

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Rong-Hua; Levitus, S.

    1997-06-01

    Upper-ocean temperature and surface marine meteorological observations are used to examine interannual variability of the coupled tropical Pacific climate system. The basinwide structure and evolution of meteorological and oceanographic fields associated with ENSO events are described using composites, empirical orthogonal functions, and a lagged correlation analysis. The analyses reveal well-defined spatial structures and coherent phase relations among various anomaly fields.

  8. Modelling interannual variation in the spring and autumn land surface phenology of the European forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodriguez-Galiano, Victor F.; Sanchez-Castillo, Manuel; Dash, Jadunandan; Atkinson, Peter M.; Ojeda-Zujar, Jose

    2016-06-01

    This research reveals new insights into the weather drivers of interannual variation in land surface phenology (LSP) across the entire European forest, while at the same time establishes a new conceptual framework for predictive modelling of LSP. Specifically, the random-forest (RF) method, a multivariate, spatially non-stationary and non-linear machine learning approach, was introduced for phenological modelling across very large areas and across multiple years simultaneously: the typical case for satellite-observed LSP. The RF model was fitted to the relation between LSP interannual variation and numerous climate predictor variables computed at biologically relevant rather than human-imposed temporal scales. In addition, the legacy effect of an advanced or delayed spring on autumn phenology was explored. The RF models explained 81 and 62 % of the variance in the spring and autumn LSP interannual variation, with relative errors of 10 and 20 %, respectively: a level of precision that has until now been unobtainable at the continental scale. Multivariate linear regression models explained only 36 and 25 %, respectively. It also allowed identification of the main drivers of the interannual variation in LSP through its estimation of variable importance. This research, thus, shows an alternative to the hitherto applied linear regression approaches for modelling LSP and paves the way for further scientific investigation based on machine learning methods.

  9. Interannual variability of the Adriatic Sea circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beg Paklar, Gordana; Sepic, Jadranka; Grbec, Branka; Dzoic, Tomislav; Kovac, Zarko; Ivatek-Sahdan, Stjepan

    2016-04-01

    The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) was implemented in order to reproduce interannual variability of the Adriatic Sea circulation. Simulations and model result analysis were performed for a three-year period from 1st January 2011 to 31st December 2013. ROMS model run was forced with realistic atmospheric fields obtained from meteorological model Aladin, climatological river discharges, tides and Mediterranean circulation imposed at the southern open boundary. Atmospheric forcing included momentum, heat and water fluxes calculated interactively from the Aladin surface fields during ROMS model simulations. Model results were compared with available CTD and ADCP measurements and discussed in the light of the climatological circulation and thermohaline properties of the Adriatic Sea and its coastal areas. Interannual variability in the Adriatic circulation is related to the prevailing atmospheric conditions, changes in the hydrological conditions and water mass exchange at the Otranto Strait. Basic features of the Adriatic circulation - basin-wide cyclonic circulation with several embedded smaller cyclonic gyres around main pits - are well reproduced by ROMS model. Modelled temperatures and salinities are within corresponding seasonal intervals, although measured profiles generally indicate stronger stratification than modelled ones. Summer circulation in 2011 with current reversal obtained along the eastern Adriatic coast was related to the sampling results of the early fish stages as well as to ARGO drifter movements. Simulated fields from the Adriatic scale model were used to prescribe the initial and open boundary conditions for the interannual simulation in the middle Adriatic coastal domain.

  10. Interannual Atmospheric Oscillations and Their Gravitational Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, Benjamin F.; Au, A. Y.

    2000-01-01

    Past studies have examined the effects of the interannual atmospheric oscillations (IAO), or often called teleconnection patterns, on the Earth's rotation, such as El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the quasi-biennial oscillation, and to a lesser extent the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The present study focuses on IAO's effects on the gravitational field and geocenter; the purpose is to be able to identify and isolate the contributions of each prominent IAO in relation to the total contribution of the atmosphere, in terms of their magnitudes, their geographical patterns, and their interannual time history. We use the 40-year NCEP reanalysis of the monthly, global atmospheric surface pressure field as our basic data set. The method we apply to isolate the IAOs is the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition which is widely used in meteorological investigations. We do the EOF analysis first on IAOs' seasonal signals (by "collapsing" the 40-year series into 12 mean-months for each grid point) and obtain estimates for their respective contributions. Then we remove these seasonal signals from the data to focus on the (broad-band) interannual EOFs. We examine ENSO, NAO, North Pacific Oscillation, and other less prominent IAOs that can be identified from our data set, and compute their respective contributions to the variation of global gravitational field and geocenter motion. Finally, we compare the results with the available observational data, and discuss the implications w.r.t. the upcoming space missions such as GRACE.

  11. Interannual Variability of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) over Western Himalayas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tiwari, Sarita; Kar, Sarat C.; Bhatla, R.

    2016-04-01

    Considering the importance of snow and glaciers in the Himalayas for understanding the water cycle and for water resource management of the rivers originating from the Himalayan, interannual variability of snow accumulation process over Himalayas and surrounding region has been studied using snow water equivalent (SWE) data. Remote sensing data from National Snow and Ice Data Centre have been used. These data have been compared against ground (in situ) observations of SWE measured at several gauge stations in the Indian part of the Satluj River basin. Accumulated SWE from remote sensing data and ground observations in the Satluj River basin have good and significant correlation. These data have also been compared against the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast reanalysis-Interim (ERA-I). Upper air and surface data from the reanalyses have also been used to examine the atmospheric conditions when snowfall occurs and snow accumulates for the season. In this study, it is found that there is large interannual variation in SWE over western Himalayas and Satluj River basin (domain of interest). During excess years of snowfall, strong westerly winds are observed at 500 hPa over India. In wind anomaly, a cyclonic circulation is seen over northern parts of India with a deep trough along Pakistan, Rajasthan and Gujarat region. As a consequence of this trough, a moisture convergence zone is established in the region leading to more amount of snowfall. At the same time, during excess snow accumulation years, the air temperature from the surface to 500 hPa is colder than other years enabling the fallen snow to accumulate through the season.

  12. Projections of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation interannual variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grainger, Simon; Frederiksen, Carsten S.; Zheng, Xiaogu

    2016-05-01

    An analysis is made of the coherent patterns, or modes, of interannual variability of Southern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential height field under current and projected climate change scenarios. Using three separate multi-model ensembles (MMEs) of coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, the interannual variability of the seasonal mean is separated into components related to (1) intraseasonal processes; (2) slowly-varying internal dynamics; and (3) the slowly-varying response to external changes in radiative forcing. In the CMIP5 RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 experiments, there is very little change in the twenty-first century in the intraseasonal component modes, related to the Southern annular mode (SAM) and mid-latitude wave processes. The leading three slowly-varying internal component modes are related to SAM, the El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO), and the South Pacific wave (SPW). Structural changes in the slow-internal SAM and ENSO modes do not exceed a qualitative estimate of the spatial sampling error, but there is a consistent increase in the ENSO-related variance. Changes in the SPW mode exceed the sampling error threshold, but cannot be further attributed. Changes in the dominant slowly-varying external mode are related to projected changes in radiative forcing. They reflect thermal expansion of the tropical troposphere and associated changes in the Hadley Cell circulation. Changes in the externally-forced associated variance in the RCP8.5 experiment are an order of magnitude greater than for the internal components, indicating that the SH seasonal mean circulation will be even more dominated by a SAM-like annular structure. Across the three MMEs, there is convergence in the projected response in the slow-external component.

  13. Interannual and interdecadal variability in 335 years of central England temperatures.

    PubMed

    Plaut, G; Ghil, M; Vautard, R

    1995-05-01

    Understanding the natural variability of climate is important for predicting its near-term evolution. Models of the oceans' thermohaline and wind-driven circulation show low-frequency oscillations. Long instrumental records can help validate the oscillatory behavior of these models. Singular spectrum analysis applied to the 335-year-long central England temperature (CET) record has identified climate oscillations with interannual (7- to 8-year) and interdecadal (15- and 25-year) periods, probably related to the North Atlantic's wind-driven and thermohaline circulation, respectively. Statistical prediction of oscillatory variability shows CETs decreasing toward the end of this decade and rising again into the middle of the next.

  14. Interannual and interdecadal variability in 335 years of central England temperatures.

    PubMed

    Plaut, G; Ghil, M; Vautard, R

    1995-05-01

    Understanding the natural variability of climate is important for predicting its near-term evolution. Models of the oceans' thermohaline and wind-driven circulation show low-frequency oscillations. Long instrumental records can help validate the oscillatory behavior of these models. Singular spectrum analysis applied to the 335-year-long central England temperature (CET) record has identified climate oscillations with interannual (7- to 8-year) and interdecadal (15- and 25-year) periods, probably related to the North Atlantic's wind-driven and thermohaline circulation, respectively. Statistical prediction of oscillatory variability shows CETs decreasing toward the end of this decade and rising again into the middle of the next. PMID:17832386

  15. Climate and developmental plasticity: interannual variability in grapevine leaf morphology

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The shape of leaves are dynamic, changing over evolutionary time between species, within a single plant producing different shaped leaves at successive nodes, during the development of a single leaf as it allometrically expands, and in response to the environment. Notably, strong correlations betwee...

  16. Global modeling of land water and energy balances. Part III: Interannual variability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shmakin, A.B.; Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.

    2002-01-01

    The Land Dynamics (LaD) model is tested by comparison with observations of interannual variations in discharge from 44 large river basins for which relatively accurate time series of monthly precipitation (a primary model input) have recently been computed. When results are pooled across all basins, the model explains 67% of the interannual variance of annual runoff ratio anomalies (i.e., anomalies of annual discharge volume, normalized by long-term mean precipitation volume). The new estimates of basin precipitation appear to offer an improvement over those from a state-of-the-art analysis of global precipitation (the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation, CMAP), judging from comparisons of parallel model runs and of analyses of precipitation-discharge correlations. When the new precipitation estimates are used, the performance of the LaD model is comparable to, but not significantly better than, that of a simple, semiempirical water-balance relation that uses only annual totals of surface net radiation and precipitation. This implies that the LaD simulations of interannual runoff variability do not benefit substantially from information on geographical variability of land parameters or seasonal structure of interannual variability of precipitation. The aforementioned analyses necessitated the development of a method for downscaling of long-term monthly precipitation data to the relatively short timescales necessary for running the model. The method merges the long-term data with a reference dataset of 1-yr duration, having high temporal resolution. The success of the method, for the model and data considered here, was demonstrated in a series of model-model comparisons and in the comparisons of modeled and observed interannual variations of basin discharge.

  17. Long-term trends and interannual variability of fires in South America during 2001-2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Y.; Randerson, J. T.; Morton, D. M.; Jin, Y.; Giglio, L.; Collatz, G. J.; Kasibhatla, P. S.; van der Werf, G.; Defries, R. S.

    2010-12-01

    Forest and savanna fires in South America have large impacts on ecosystems, air quality, and global climate. In this paper we investigated long-term trends and interannual variability of forest and savanna fires in South America during 2001-2009 based on multiple satellite datasets. We found that fires associated with the deforestation frontier in evergreen forests increased in the first half of the decade, peaked at 2005, and declined thereafter. Fires in deciduous forests in southern Bolivia, northern Argentina and western Paraguay were characterized by a consistent increasing trend. Savanna fires showed smaller interannual variability, except for a high (2007) and a low (2009) year. Time series of fire counts (FC), burned area, and GFED3 emissions demonstrated a moving fire front in the deforestation arc toward the interior of the Amazon. Fire intensity (FI), defined as the ratio of FC to the deforestation area, increased consistently during 2001-2007 and decreased in 2008. Fire persistence (FP), which is linked with high rates of fuel consumption including repeated human aggregation and burning of fuels, decreased at the deforestation frontier after 2004. We explored the possibility of using FP to estimate the FI and the deforestation area. The interannual variability of fire activity was found to be correlated with precipitation with variable time lags in different biomes. Climate variability and drought stress were related to ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation.

  18. Dynamics of the Chesapeake Bay outflow plume: Realistic plume simulation and its seasonal and interannual variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Long; Xia, Meng

    2016-02-01

    The three-dimensional unstructured-grid Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) was implemented for Chesapeake Bay and its adjacent coastal ocean to delineate the realistic Chesapeake Bay outflow plume (CBOP) as well as its seasonal and interannual variability. Applying the appropriate horizontal and vertical resolution, the model exhibited relatively high skill in matching the observational water level, temperature, and salinity from 2003 to 2012. The simulated surface plume structure was verified by comparing output to the HF radar current measurements, earlier field observations, and the MODIS and AVHRR satellite imagery. According to the orientation, shape, and size of the CBOP from both model snapshots and satellite images, five types of real-time plume behavior were detected, which implied strong regulation by wind and river discharge. In addition to the episodic plume modulation, horizontal and vertical structure of the CBOP exhibited variations on seasonal and interannual temporal scales. Seasonally, river discharge with a 1 month lag was primarily responsible for the surface plume area variation, while the plume thickness was mainly correlated to wind magnitude. On the interannual scale, river discharge was the predominant source of variability in both surface plume area and depth; however, the southerly winds also influenced the offshore plume depth. In addition, large-scale climate variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, could potentially affect the plume signature in the long term by altering wind and upwelling dynamics, underlining the need to understand the impacts of climate change on buoyant plumes, such as the CBOP.

  19. The predicted CLARREO sampling error of the inter-annual SW variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doelling, D. R.; Keyes, D. F.; Nguyen, C.; Macdonnell, D.; Young, D. F.

    2009-12-01

    The NRC Decadal Survey has called for SI traceability of long-term hyper-spectral flux measurements in order to monitor climate variability. This mission is called the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) and is currently defining its mission requirements. The requirements are focused on the ability to measure decadal change of key climate variables at very high accuracy. The accuracy goals are set using anticipated climate change magnitudes, but the accuracy achieved for any given climate variable must take into account the temporal and spatial sampling errors based on satellite orbits and calibration accuracy. The time period to detect a significant trend in the CLARREO record depends on the magnitude of the sampling calibration errors relative to the current inter-annual variability. The largest uncertainty in climate feedbacks remains the effect of changing clouds on planetary energy balance. Some regions on earth have strong diurnal cycles, such as maritime stratus and afternoon land convection; other regions have strong seasonal cycles, such as the monsoon. However, when monitoring inter-annual variability these cycles are only important if the strength of these cycles vary on decadal time scales. This study will attempt to determine the best satellite constellations to reduce sampling error and to compare the error with the current inter-annual variability signal to ensure the viability of the mission. The study will incorporate Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) (Monthly TOA/Surface Averages) SRBAVG product TOA LW and SW climate quality fluxes. The fluxes are derived by combining Terra (10:30 local equator crossing time) CERES fluxes with 3-hourly 5-geostationary satellite estimated broadband fluxes, which are normalized using the CERES fluxes, to complete the diurnal cycle. These fluxes were saved hourly during processing and considered the truth dataset. 90°, 83° and 74° inclination precessionary orbits as

  20. Effects of Uncertainty in TRMM Precipitation Radar Path Integrated Attenuation on Interannual Variations of Tropical Oceanic Rainfall

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Fitzjarrald, Dan E.; Kummerow, Christian D.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30 deg N/S) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Time series of rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) over the tropical oceans show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. We show that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series. Further analysis of the frequency distribution of PR (2A25 product) rain rates suggests that the algorithm incorporates the attenuation measurement in a very conservative fashion so as to optimize the instantaneous rain rates. Such an optimization appears to come at the expense of monitoring interannual climate variability.

  1. The Elastic Response of the Earth to Interannual Variations in Antarctic Precipitation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hager, Bradford H.; Conrad, Clinton P.

    1995-01-01

    Measurements of elastic displacements of the bedrock surrounding large ice sheets have been proposed as a means to detect mass changes in these ice sheets. However, accumulation of glacial mass on the ice sheets is a noisy process, subject to large spatial and temporal variations in precipitation. We simulated the response of the Antarctic continent to a stochastic model of interannual precipitation variations and found that interannual variations in the elastic response of the earth are large when compared to the long-term mean of displacements produced by an assumed average ice mass imbalance of 10%. If, as some scientists predict, Antarctic ice mass changes in the future become dramatic, the long-term signal should be large enough to be detected by a few years of geodetic measurements, despite climatic noise.

  2. An interpretation of the interannual mass trend change over the Indochina Peninsula observed by GRACE data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamamoto, K.; Fukuda, Y.; Nakaegawa, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Taniguchi, M.

    2010-12-01

    In Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, a project “Human Impacts on Urban Subsurface Environments” to assess impacts of human activities on urban subsurface environment in several Asian developing cities is now in progress. Although one of the main purposes of the project is to investigate local groundwater systems on and around the urban cities, the project also aims to understand large-scale landwater movements including the areas, and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite gravity data is used for the purpose. In the previous study (Yamamoto et al., 2010), we recovered the regional-scale interannual landwater mass variation over the Indochina Peninsula, which includes one of the test cities in the project, i.e. Bangkok, Thailand, by using GRACE data. The recovered mass variation showed the change of the interannual trend at around the beginning of 2005: it decreased up to the beginning of 2005, and after that, increased up to 2009. The compared results with observed/modeled hydrological and meteorological data sets showed that the observed trend change did not caused by regional human activities, e.g. excessive groundwater pumping, but caused by global-scale meteorological phenomena. In fact, the interannual mass variation showed high correlation with the climate index represents the intensity of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomena. In this study, we investigated the correlation mechanism between the interannual mass change in the Indochina Peninsula and the IOD phenomena, which is the spatial anomaly pattern of sea surface temperature. We firstly made the moisture flux data sets in the GRACE mission duration by using atmospheric objective reanalysis data. The obtained flux pattern was discussed by comparing with the typical flux pattern during the pure IOD years estimated by Ummenhofer et al., 2009. Further, the moisture flux over the Indochina Peninsula was assessed whether the value is quantitatively agreeable by comparing with

  3. Interannual and Decadal Variability of Summer Rainfall over South America

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhou, Jiayu; Lau, K.-M.

    1999-01-01

    Using the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Merged Analysis of Precipitation product along with the Goddard Earth Observing System reanalysis and the Climate Analysis Center sea surface temperature (SST) data, we conduct a diagnostic study of the interannual and decadal scale variability of summer rainfall over South America. Results show three leading modes of rainfall variation identified with interannual, decadal, and long-term trend variability. Together, these modes explain more than half the total variance. The first mode is highly correlated with El Nino/southern oscillation (ENSO), showing severe drought over Northeast Brazil and copious rainfall over the Ecuador coast and the area of Uruguay-Southern Brazil in El Nino years. This pattern is attributed to the large scale zonal shift of the Walker circulation and local Hadley cell anomaly induced by positive (negative) SST anomaly over the eastern (western) equatorial Pacific. In El Nino years, two convective belts indicated by upper tropospheric velocity potential trough and mid-tropospheric rising motion, which are somewhat symmetric about the equator, extend toward the northeast and the southeast into the tropical North and South Atlantic respectively. Sandwiched between the ascent is a region of descending motion over Northeast Brazil. The southern branch of the anomalous Hadley cell is dynamically linked to the increase of rainfall over Uruguay-Southern Brazil. The regional response of anomalous circulation shows a stronger South American summer monsoon and an enhanced (weakened) subtropical high over the South Atlantic (South Pacific) Ocean. The decadal variation displays a meridional shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is tie to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient over the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. In conjunction with this mode is a large scale mass swing between the polar regions and midlatitudes in both hemispheres. Over the South Atlantic and the South Pacific

  4. Analysis of the Relationship Between Climate and NDVI Variability at Global Scales

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zeng, Fan-Wei; Collatz, G. James; Pinzon, Jorge; Ivanoff, Alvaro

    2011-01-01

    interannual variability in modeled (CASA) C flux is in part caused by interannual variability in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR). This study confirms a mechanism producing variability in modeled NPP: -- NDVI (FPAR) interannual variability is strongly driven by climate; -- The climate driven variability in NDVI (FPAR) can lead to much larger fluctuation in NPP vs. the NPP computed from FPAR climatology

  5. Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability of Southeastern South America in CMIP5 Decadal Hindcasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez, P. L.; Goddard, L. M.

    2011-12-01

    To face the increasing demand of near-term climate information, CMIP5 has designed a set of decadal hindcasts that explore the effect of initializing the models with information about the current state of the climate system. The idea is that some skill for the next year-to-decade may be gained if one can predict aspects of the natural internal variability of the climate system in addition to the anthropogenic trend. Preliminary results suggest that these hindcasts have some additional skill in the North Atlantic Ocean, which is likely associated with Atlantic multi-decadal variability, and in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which may reflect the decadal-scale component of ENSO. Southeastern South America (SESA) is a potentially interesting region to explore in these hindcasts, especially for precipitation. Over the 20th century this region experienced large trends, showed decadal-scale variability, and also exhibited strong seasonal-to-interannual variability, mainly due to an ENSO teleconnection. In this presentation we will discuss whether near-term climate projections for the area can benefit from initialized decadal hindcasts. In particular, we will explore if the hindcasts capture the main features of seasonal-to-interannual variability in SESA, even if we cannot expect to predict the exact timing of this variability years in advance. In particular, we examine the low-frequency modulation of ENSO-teleconnections in the region, and the extent to which these are tied to decadal-scale changes in the oceanic circulation.

  6. Marginal Lands Gross Primary Production Dominate Atmospheric CO2 Interannual Variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahlström, A.; Raupach, M. R.; Schurgers, G.; Arneth, A.; Jung, M.; Reichstein, M.; Smith, B.

    2014-12-01

    Since the 1960s terrestrial ecosystems have acted as a substantial sink for atmospheric CO2, sequestering about one quarter of anthropogenic emissions in an average year. Variations in this land carbon sink are also responsible for most of the large interannual variability in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. While most evidence places the majority of the sink in highly productive forests and at high latitudes experiencing warmer and longer growing seasons, the location and the processes governing the interannual variations are still not well characterised. Here we evaluate the hypothesis that the long-term trend and the variability in the land CO2 sink are respectively dominated by geographically distinct regions: the sink by highly productive lands, mainly forests, and the variability by semi-arid or "marginal" lands where vegetation activity is strongly limited by water and therefore responds strongly to climate variability. Using novel analysis methods and data from both upscaled flux-tower measurements and a dynamic global vegetation model, we show that (1) the interannual variability in the terrestrial CO2 sink arises mainly from variability in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP); (2) most of the interannual variability in GPP arises in tropical and subtropical marginal lands, where negative anomalies are driven mainly by warm, dry conditions and positive anomalies by cool, wet conditions; (3) the variability in the GPP of high-latitude marginal lands (tundra and shrublands) is instead controlled by temperature and light, with warm bright conditions resulting in positive anomalies. The influence of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) on the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 concentrations is mediated primarily through climatic effects on GPP in marginal lands, with opposite signs in subtropical and higher-latitude regions. Our results show that the land sink of CO2 (dominated by forests) and its interannual variability (dominated by marginal lands) are

  7. Seasonal and interannual changes in cirrus

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wylie, Donald P.

    1990-01-01

    Statistics on cirrus clouds using the multispectral data from the GOES/VAS satellite have been collected since 1985. The method used to diagnose cirrus clouds and a summary of the first two years of data was given in Wylie and Menzel (1989) and at the 1988 FIRE meeting in Vail, CO. This study was expanded to three years of data which allows a more detailed discussion of the geographical and seasonal changes in cloud cover. Interannual changes in cloud cover also were studied. GOES/VAS cloud retrievals also were compared to atmospheric dynamic parameters and to radiative attenuation data taken by a lidar. Some of the highlights of these studies are discussed.

  8. Can the teleconnection indices explain the interannual variability of Daphnia phenology ? A case study in Lake Iseo, northern Italy.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beluzzi, Stefano; Leoni, Barbara; Salmaso, Nico; Manca, Marina

    2013-04-01

    In the last years, increasing interest has been shown on the impact of inter-annual climate variability on zooplankton. Several teleconnection indices have been successfully applied in order to explain inter-annual variations in zooplankton and phytoplankton seasonal dynamics. During the winter months (December-February), the East Atlantic pattern (EADJF) and the Eastern Mediterranean Pattern (EMPDJF) showed a clear relationship with the variables directly connected with the winter climate and limnological variables in the large lakes south of the Alps. A recent study carried out in the lakes Maggiore and Garda confirmed that the impact of the winter large scale atmospheric patterns was detectable also on the phenology of Daphnia populations. We extended the same approach to zooplankton of Lake Iseo, the fourth largest and deepest italian lake, with costant characteristic of meso-eutrophy during last decades. We analysed data from 1998 to 2012, focusing on population dynamics of Daphnia sp., the most important larger filter feeder in this lake. The results showed a link between the interannual climate fluctuations and the development of Daphnia. Our observations are consistent with the patterns obtained in the lakes Maggiore and Garda. Overall, the results confirm that these indices may help to detect and predict the effect of the impact of climate change on populations and freshwater ecosystems.

  9. Interannual variation of global net radiation flux as measured from space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Ping; Wild, Martin; Ruymbeke, Michel; Thuillier, Gérard; Meftah, Mustapha; Karatekin, Ozgur

    2016-06-01

    The global net radiation flux (NRF) in and out of the climate system at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) varies at interannual time scales, reflecting the complexity of the processes responsible for attaining global energy equilibrium. These processes are investigated in this study using the previously unexplored data acquired by a bolometric type sensor installed in the PICARD microsatellite. The obtained anomalies in the NRF (PICARD-NRF) are compared to the global NRF changes at the TOA measured by the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System mission (CERES-NRF). The interanual PICARD-NRF is strongly correlated with the matching period CERES-NRF; the bootstrapped correlation at the 95%(+0.85 and +0.97) confidence intervals is +0.93. Consistency in the interannual variability in the NRF derived by two completely independent measurement systems enhances confidence in the estimated magnitude of these variations. To reveal the possible drivers of the NRF interannual variability, the NRF values were compared with the multivariate El Niño-Southern Oscillation index.

  10. Feedback Attributions to the Interannual Variation of the Dominant Modes of the East Asian Winter Monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yana; Yang, Song

    2016-04-01

    This study investigates the interannual variation and feedback attributions of the East Asian Winter Monsoon for the period of 1979-2013. The variations of winter mean surface air temperature are dominated by two distinct principal modes, which account for 70.9% of the total variance. The interannual variation of the northern mode features high correlations with the variations of the Arctic Oscillation, the Siberia High, and the tropoical Indian Ocean Dipole, while the southern mode is strongly linked to the East Asia trough and the atmospheric circulation over the northwestern Pacific. To find the main factors which affect the two different modes, this study decomposes the surface air temperature interannual variation into various feedback attributions by applying a climate feedback-response analysis method. The results indicate that the surface cooling associated with the northern mode is mainly contributed by the feedback processes of atmospheric dynamics, cloud, and sensible heating. For the southern mode, the surface cooling is mainly attributed to the atmospheric dynamic process, sensible heating, and water vapor, while the oceanic dynamics and heat storage process induces a negative effect that warms the surface.

  11. The Interannual Stability of Cumulative Frequency Distributions for Convective System Size and Intensity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mohr, Karen I.; Molinari, John; Thorncroft, Chris D,

    2010-01-01

    The characteristics of convective system populations in West Africa and the western Pacific tropical cyclone basin were analyzed to investigate whether interannual variability in convective activity in tropical continental and oceanic environments is driven by variations in the number of events during the wet season or by favoring large and/or intense convective systems. Convective systems were defined from TRMM data as a cluster of pixels with an 85 GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature below 255 K and with an area at least 64 km 2. The study database consisted of convective systems in West Africa from May Sep for 1998-2007 and in the western Pacific from May Nov 1998-2007. Annual cumulative frequency distributions for system minimum brightness temperature and system area were constructed for both regions. For both regions, there were no statistically significant differences among the annual curves for system minimum brightness temperature. There were two groups of system area curves, split by the TRMM altitude boost in 2001. Within each set, there was no statistically significant interannual variability. Sub-setting the database revealed some sensitivity in distribution shape to the size of the sampling area, length of sample period, and climate zone. From a regional perspective, the stability of the cumulative frequency distributions implied that the probability that a convective system would attain a particular size or intensity does not change interannually. Variability in the number of convective events appeared to be more important in determining whether a year is wetter or drier than normal.

  12. Interannual variability of physical oceanographic characteristics of Gilbert Bay: A marine protected area in Labrador, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Best, Sara; Lundrigan, Sarah; Demirov, Entcho; Wroblewski, Joe

    2011-10-01

    Gilbert Bay on the southeast coast of Labrador is the site of the first Marine Protected Area (MPA) established in the subarctic coastal zone of eastern Canada. The MPA was created to conserve a genetically distinctive population of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua. This article presents results from a study of the interannual variability in atmospheric and physical oceanographic characteristics of Gilbert Bay over the period 1949-2006. We describe seasonal and interannual variability of the atmospheric parameters at the sea surface in the bay. The interannual variability of the atmosphere in the Gilbert Bay region is related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and a recent warming trend in the local climate of coastal Labrador. The related changes in seawater temperature, salinity and sea-ice thickness in winter are simulated with a one-dimensional water column model, the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). A warming Gilbert Bay ecosystem would be favorable for cod growth, but reduced sea-ice formation during the winter months increases the danger of traveling across the bay by snowmobile.

  13. Interannual variability of the Mediterranean trophic regimes from ocean color satellites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayot, N.; D'Ortenzio, F.; Ribera d'Alcalà, M.; Lavigne, H.; Claustre, H.

    2015-09-01

    D'Ortenzio and Ribera d'Alcalà (2009, DR09 hereafter) divided the Mediterranean Sea into "bioregions" based on the climatological seasonality (phenology) of phytoplankton. Here we investigate the interannual variability of this bioregionalization. Using 16 years of available ocean color observations (i.e. SeaWiFS and MODIS), we analyzed the spatial distribution of the DR09 trophic regimes on an annual basis. Additionally, we identified new trophic regimes, with seasonal cycles of phytoplankton biomass different from the DR09 climatological description and named "Anomalous". Overall, the classification of the Mediterranean phytoplankton phenology proposed by DR09 (i.e. "No Bloom", "Intermittently", "Bloom" and "Coastal"), is confirmed to be representative of most of the Mediterranean phytoplankton phenologies. The mean spatial distribution of these trophic regimes (i.e. bioregions) over the 16 years studied is also similar to the one proposed by DR09. But at regional scale some annual differences, in their spatial distribution and in the emergence of "Anomalous" trophic regimes, were observed compared to the DR09 description. These dissimilarities with the DR09 study were related to interannual variability in the sub-basin forcing: winter deep convection events, frontal instabilities, inflow of Atlantic or Black Sea Waters and river run-off. The large assortment of phytoplankton phenologies identified in the Mediterranean Sea is thus verified at interannual level, confirming the "sentinel" role of this basin to detect the impact of climate changes on the pelagic environment.

  14. Interannual variability of the Mediterranean trophic regimes from ocean color satellites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayot, Nicolas; D'Ortenzio, Fabrizio; Ribera d'Alcalà, Maurizio; Lavigne, Héloïse; Claustre, Hervé

    2016-03-01

    D'Ortenzio and Ribera d'Alcalà (2009, DR09 hereafter) divided the Mediterranean Sea into "bioregions" based on the climatological seasonality (phenology) of phytoplankton. Here we investigate the interannual variability of this bioregionalization. Using 16 years of available ocean color observations (i.e., SeaWiFS and MODIS), we analyzed the spatial distribution of the DR09 trophic regimes on an annual basis. Additionally, we identified new trophic regimes, exhibiting seasonal cycles of phytoplankton biomass different from the DR09 climatological description and named "Anomalous". Overall, the classification of the Mediterranean phytoplankton phenology proposed by DR09 (i.e., "No Bloom", "Intermittently", "Bloom" and "Coastal"), is confirmed to be representative of most of the Mediterranean phytoplankton phenologies. The mean spatial distribution of these trophic regimes (i.e., bioregions) over the 16 years studied is also similar to the one proposed by DR09, although some annual variations were observed at regional scale. Discrepancies with the DR09 study were related to interannual variability in the sub-basin forcing: winter deep convection events, frontal instabilities, inflow of Atlantic or Black Sea Waters and river run-off. The large assortment of phytoplankton phenologies identified in the Mediterranean Sea is thus verified at the interannual scale, further supporting the "sentinel" role of this basin for detecting the impact of climate changes on the pelagic environment.

  15. The Seasonal and Interannual Variability of the Budgets of N2O and CCl3F

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wong, Sun; Prather, Michael J.; Rind, David H.

    1999-01-01

    The 6-year wind archives from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies/Global Climate-Middle Atmosphere Model (GISS/GCMAM) were in- put to the GISS/Harvard/Irvine Chemical Transport Model (G/H/I CTM) to study the seasonal and interannual variability of the budgets and distributions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and trichlorofluoromethane (CCl3F), with the corresponding chemical loss frequencies recycled and boundary conditions kept unchanged from year to year. The effects of ozone feedback and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) were not included. However, the role of circulation variation in driving the lifetime variability is investigated. It was found that the global loss rates of these tracers are related to the extratropical planetary wave activity, which drives the tropical upward mass flux. For N2O, a semiannual signal in the loss rate variation is associated with the interhemispheric asymmetry in the upper stratospheric wave activity. For CCl3F, the semiannual signal is weaker, associated with the comparatively uniform wave episodes in the lower stratosphere. The loss rates lag behind the wave activity by about 1-2 months. The interannual variation of the GCM generated winds drives the interannual variation of the annually averaged lifetime. The year-to-year variations of the annually averaged lifetimes can be about 3% for N2O and 4% for CCl3F.

  16. What Determines Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Phytoplankton and Zooplankton in Strongly Estuarine Systems?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, M.; Gargett, A.; Denman, K.

    2000-04-01

    A coupled biological-physical box model is developed to investigate the seasonal and interannual variability of marine plankton in strongly estuarine systems such as the semi-enclosed estuary of the Strait of Georgia and Juan de Fuca Strait on the west coast of Canada. The estuarine circulation not only supplies nutrients to the euphotic layer but also transports plankton between the straits, causing an asymmetrical distribution of plankton biomass in the estuary. A specific set of biological parameters can be chosen so that the model predicts a large spring bloom and nutrient limitation in the Strait of Georgia but high nutrient levels and no spring bloom in the Juan de Fuca Strait, in agreement with observations. However, as the plankton growth and mortality rate parameters are varied over a realistic range, the plankton also exhibit two other ecosystem behaviours: one with a large spring bloom in the Juan de Fuca Strait and one with a low zooplankton stock in the Strait of Georgia. To determine possible causes for observed interannual variability of the planktonic ecosystem, we have run the coupled biophysical model with stochastic variation of the Fraser River runoff and the shelf salinity. The plankton populations are found to be insensitive to the interannual variability in the estuarine circulation. It is suggested that marine phytoplankton and zooplankton might respond more significantly to climate variability (or change) through changes in their biological rate parameters.

  17. Sole larval supply to coastal nurseries: Interannual variability and connectivity at interregional and interpopulation scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Savina, M.; Lunghi, M.; Archambault, B.; Baulier, L.; Huret, M.; Le Pape, O.

    2016-05-01

    Simulating fish larval drift helps assess the sensitivity of recruitment variability to early life history. An individual-based model (IBM) coupled to a hydrodynamic model was used to simulate common sole larval supply from spawning areas to coastal and estuarine nursery grounds at the meta-population scale (4 assessed stocks), from the southern North Sea to the Bay of Biscay (Western Europe) on a 26-yr time series, from 1982 to 2007. The IBM allowed each particle released to be transported by currents, to grow depending on temperature, to migrate vertically depending on development stage, to die along pelagic stages or to settle on a nursery, representing the life history from spawning to metamorphosis. The model outputs were analysed to explore interannual patterns in the amounts of settled sole larvae at the population scale; they suggested: (i) a low connectivity between populations at the larval stage, (ii) a moderate influence of interannual variation in the spawning biomass, (iii) dramatic consequences of life history on the abundance of settling larvae and (iv) the effects of climate variability on the interannual variability of the larvae settlement success.

  18. Cloud feedback on climate change and variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, C.; Dessler, A. E.; Yang, P.

    2014-12-01

    Cloud feedback on climate change and variability follow similar mechanism in climate models, and the magnitude of cloud feedback on climate change and variability are well correlated among models. Therefore, the cloud feedback on short-term climate fluctuations correlates with the equilibrium climate sensitivity in climate models. Using this correlation and the observed short-term climate feedback, we infer a climate sensitivity of ~2.9K. The cloud response to inter-annual surface warming is generally consistent in observations and climate models, except for the tropical boundary-layer low clouds.

  19. Interannual Variability of Boreal Summer Rainfall in the Equatorial Atlantic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gu, Guojun; Adler, Robert F.

    2007-01-01

    Tropical Atlantic rainfall patterns and variation during boreal summer [June-July-August (JJA)] are quantified by means of a 28-year (1979-2006) monthly precipitation dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Rainfall variability during boreal spring [March-April-May (MAM)] is also examined for comparison in that the most intense interannual variability is usually observed during this season. Comparable variabilities in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) strength and the basin-mean rainfall are found during both seasons. Interannual variations in the ITCZ's latitudinal location during JJA however are generally negligible, in contrasting to intense year-to-year fluctuations during MAM. Sea surface temperature (SST) oscillations along the equatorial region (usually called the Atlantic Nino events) and in the tropical north Atlantic (TNA) are shown to be the two major local factors modulating the tropical Atlantic climate during both seasons. During MAM, both SST modes tend to contribute to the formation of an evident interhemispheric SST gradient, thus inducing anomalous shifting of the ITCZ and then forcing a dipolar structure of rainfall anomalies across the equator primarily in the western basin. During JJA the impacts however are primarily on the ITCZ strength likely due to negligible changes in the ITCZ latitudinal location. The Atlantic Nino reaches its peak in JJA, while much weaker SST anomalies appear north of the equator in JJA than in MAM, showing decaying of the interhemispheric SST mode. SST anomalies in the tropical central-eastern Pacific (the El Nino events) have a strong impact on tropical Atlantic including both the tropical north Atlantic and the equatorial-southern Atlantic. However, anomalous warming in the tropical north Atlantic following positive SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific disappears during JJA because of seasonal changes in the large-scale circulation cutting off the ENSO influence passing through the

  20. Interannual variability: a crucial component of space use at the territory level.

    PubMed

    Uboni, Alessia; Vucetich, John A; Stahler, Daniel R; Smith, Douglas W

    2015-01-01

    Interannual variability in space use and how that variation is influenced by density-dependent and density-independent factors are important processes in population ecology. Nevertheless, interannual variability has been neglected by the majority of space use studies. We assessed that variation for wolves living in 15 different packs within Yellowstone National Park during a 13-year period (1996-2008). We estimated utilization distributions to quantify the intensity of space use within each pack's territory each year in summer and winter. Then, we used the volume of intersection index (VI) to quantify the extent to which space use varied from year to year. This index accounts for both the area of overlap and differences in the intensity of use throughout a territory and ranges between 0 and 1. The mean VI index was 0.49, and varied considerably, with approximately 20% of observations (n = 230) being <0.3 or >0.7. In summer, 42% of the variation was attributable to differences between packs. These differences can be attributable to learned behaviors and had never been thought to have such an influence on space use. In winter, 34% of the variation in overlap between years was attributable to interannual differences in precipitation and pack size. This result reveals the strong influence of climate on predator space use and underlies the importance of understanding how climatic factors are going to affect predator populations in the occurrence of climate change. We did not find any significant association between overlap and variables representing density-dependent processes (elk and wolf densities) or intraspecific competition (ratio of wolves to elk). This last result poses a challenge to the classic view of predator-prey systems. On a small spatial scale, predator space use may be driven by factors other than prey distribution.

  1. Interannual variability: a crucial component of space use at the territory level.

    PubMed

    Uboni, Alessia; Vucetich, John A; Stahler, Daniel R; Smith, Douglas W

    2015-01-01

    Interannual variability in space use and how that variation is influenced by density-dependent and density-independent factors are important processes in population ecology. Nevertheless, interannual variability has been neglected by the majority of space use studies. We assessed that variation for wolves living in 15 different packs within Yellowstone National Park during a 13-year period (1996-2008). We estimated utilization distributions to quantify the intensity of space use within each pack's territory each year in summer and winter. Then, we used the volume of intersection index (VI) to quantify the extent to which space use varied from year to year. This index accounts for both the area of overlap and differences in the intensity of use throughout a territory and ranges between 0 and 1. The mean VI index was 0.49, and varied considerably, with approximately 20% of observations (n = 230) being <0.3 or >0.7. In summer, 42% of the variation was attributable to differences between packs. These differences can be attributable to learned behaviors and had never been thought to have such an influence on space use. In winter, 34% of the variation in overlap between years was attributable to interannual differences in precipitation and pack size. This result reveals the strong influence of climate on predator space use and underlies the importance of understanding how climatic factors are going to affect predator populations in the occurrence of climate change. We did not find any significant association between overlap and variables representing density-dependent processes (elk and wolf densities) or intraspecific competition (ratio of wolves to elk). This last result poses a challenge to the classic view of predator-prey systems. On a small spatial scale, predator space use may be driven by factors other than prey distribution. PMID:26236891

  2. Variability of Regional Wind Energy Generation on Intraseasonal to Interannual timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirk-Davidoff, D. B.; Jascourt, S. D.; Cassidy, C.

    2012-12-01

    We produce forecasts of wind energy electrical generation in a large number of electrical interconnections in the United States, Canada and Europe. Using our data base of wind farm locations, turbine numbers and types, we are able to use reanalyzed winds from NOAA's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis to calculate the electrical power that would have been generated by the existing wind farm network for the last thirty years. We will show these time series for several electrical interconnections in North America and Europe, and discuss their correlations with various indices of the global circulation, including the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation on short time scales, and the the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on longer time scales. These studies allow analysis of the expected variations of wind powered electrical generation on monthly to interannual time scales, and set the stage for coupled-climate model prediction of wind energy generation, using the NOAA Climate Forecast System.

  3. Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: from basics to applications

    PubMed Central

    Palmer, T.N; Doblas-Reyes, F.J; Hagedorn, R; Weisheimer, A

    2005-01-01

    The development of multi-model ensembles for reliable predictions of inter-annual climate fluctuations and climate change, and their application to health, agronomy and water management, are discussed. PMID:16433088

  4. Dynamic Equilibrium Inter-annual Snow Modeling for Wyoming using Reconstructed Regional Atmospheric Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ohara, N.; Johnson, R. J.

    2015-12-01

    The inland glacier retreat has often been considered as one of clearest evidences of the global warming last several decades. However, when we try to model the evolution of the inland inter-annual snow storage including glaciers using a standard energy and mass balance snow model, it is impossible to keep the snow storage constant under a constant climate condition. This study treats the inland glaciers as a dynamic equilibrium system that remains constant under static climate condition. We introduced a sub-grid scale parameterization that moves snow/ice from high elevation areas to valleys as the equilibrating factor of the system. This movement of snow/ice occurs by means of wind re-distribution, avalanches, and glaciation. The physically-based model of a dynamic equilibrium snow system at a regional scale was applied to the entire state of Wyoming for long-term simulation. The developed snow model, named RegSnow model, was coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to estimate the snow surface energy fluxes during the 33-year-long historical period for transient model calibration. The RegSnow model predicted that 82.2% of interannual snow and ice storage in Wyoming may disappear by 2100 under the RCP4.5 emission scenario based on the climate projection by CMIP5 GCMs.

  5. Links between tropical Pacific seasonal, interannual and orbital variability during the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emile-Geay, J.; Cobb, K. M.; Carré, M.; Braconnot, P.; Leloup, J.; Zhou, Y.; Harrison, S. P.; Corrège, T.; McGregor, H. V.; Collins, M.; Driscoll, R.; Elliot, M.; Schneider, B.; Tudhope, A.

    2016-02-01

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual climate variability. However, it is unclear how ENSO has responded to external forcing, particularly orbitally induced changes in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle during the Holocene. Here we present a reconstruction of seasonal and interannual surface conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean from a network of high-resolution coral and mollusc records that span discrete intervals of the Holocene. We identify several intervals of reduced variance in the 2 to 7 yr ENSO band that are not in phase with orbital changes in equatorial insolation, with a notable 64% reduction between 5,000 and 3,000 years ago. We compare the reconstructed ENSO variance and seasonal cycle with that simulated by nine climate models that include orbital forcing, and find that the models do not capture the timing or amplitude of ENSO variability, nor the mid-Holocene increase in seasonality seen in the observations; moreover, a simulated inverse relationship between the amplitude of the seasonal cycle and ENSO-related variance in sea surface temperatures is not found in our reconstructions. We conclude that the tropical Pacific climate is highly variable and subject to millennial scale quiescent periods. These periods harbour no simple link to orbital forcing, and are not adequately simulated by the current generation of models.

  6. Impacts of absorbing aerosols on interannual and intraseasonal variability of the South Asian monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lau, W. K. M.; Kim, K. M.; Shi, J. J.; Tao, W. K.

    2015-12-01

    Aerosol-monsoon interactions on the interannual and intraseasonal variability of the South Asian monsoon are investigated from observations and modeling. On interannual time scales, we found from observations, and confirm with coupled ocean-atmosphere climate modeling, that absorbing aerosols (mainly desert dust and BC), can significantly amplifying the ENSO impact on the Indian monsoon, through precipitation and circulation feedback induced by the EHP effect. On intraseasonal time scales, modeling studies with the high-resolution WRF regional climate model demonstrated that EHP combined with the semi-direct and microphysics effects, associated with enhanced desert dust transported from the Middle East deserts across the Arabian Sea to the Indian subcontinent, may alter the moisture transport pathways, suppress the development of monsoon depression over northeastern India, resulting in development of intense convective cells, and extreme heavy rain along the Himalayan foothills in central and northwestern India. The implications of these feedback processes on climate change in the South Asian monsoon region will be discussed.

  7. Interannual variability in biochemistry of partially mixed estuaries: Dissolved silicate cycles in northern San Francisco Bay

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peterson, David H.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Festa, John F.

    1986-01-01

    Much of the interannual variability in partially mixed estuaries in dissolved inorganic nutrient and dissolved oxygen patterns results from an enhancement or reduction of their annual cycle (generally via climatic forcing). In northern San Francisco Bay estuary the annual cycle of dissolved silicate supply peaks in spring and the effect of phytoplankton removal peaks in fall. Because riverine silicate sources are enhanced in wet years and reduced in dry years, the annual silicate cycle is modified accordingly. Effects of phytoplankton removal are reduced and delayed in wet years and enhanced and advanced (seen earlier) in dry years. Similar reasoning can apply to interpreting and understanding other mechanisms and rates.

  8. Interannual Variability of the Tropical Water Cycle: Capabilities in the TRMM Era and Challenges for GPM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robertson, Franklin R.

    2003-01-01

    Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30" NE) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Although it is well documented that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with marked SST changes over the tropical oceans, produce significant regional changes in precipitation, water vapor, and radiative fluxes in the tropics, we still cannot yet adequately quantify the associated net integrated changes to water and heat balance over the entire tropical oceanic or land sectors. Robertson et al., [2001 GRL] for example, showed that substantial disagreement exists among contemporary satellite estimates of interannual variations in tropical rainfall that are associated with SST changes. Berg et al., [2002 J. Climate] have documented the distinct differences between precipitation structure over the eastern and western Pacific ITCZ and noted how various satellite precipitation algorithms may respond quite differently to ENSO modulations of these precipitation regimes. Resolving this uncertainty is important since precipitation and latent heat release variations over land and ocean sectors are key components of the tropical heat balance in its most aggregated form. Rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) averaged over the tropical oceans have not solved this issue and, in fact, show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. In this paper we will focus on findings that uncertainties in microphysical assumptions necessitated by the single-frequency PR measurement pose difficulties for detecting climate-related precipitation signals. Recent work has shown that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees

  9. Codominant water control on global interannual variability and trends in land surface phenology and greenness.

    PubMed

    Forkel, Matthias; Migliavacca, Mirco; Thonicke, Kirsten; Reichstein, Markus; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Weber, Ulrich; Carvalhais, Nuno

    2015-09-01

    Identifying the relative importance of climatic and other environmental controls on the interannual variability and trends in global land surface phenology and greenness is challenging. Firstly, quantifications of land surface phenology and greenness dynamics are impaired by differences between satellite data sets and phenology detection methods. Secondly, dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) that can be used to diagnose controls still reveal structural limitations and contrasting sensitivities to environmental drivers. Thus, we assessed the performance of a new developed phenology module within the LPJmL (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Lands) DGVM with a comprehensive ensemble of three satellite data sets of vegetation greenness and ten phenology detection methods, thereby thoroughly accounting for observational uncertainties. The improved and tested model allows us quantifying the relative importance of environmental controls on interannual variability and trends of land surface phenology and greenness at regional and global scales. We found that start of growing season interannual variability and trends are in addition to cold temperature mainly controlled by incoming radiation and water availability in temperate and boreal forests. Warming-induced prolongations of the growing season in high latitudes are dampened by a limited availability of light. For peak greenness, interannual variability and trends are dominantly controlled by water availability and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) in all regions. Stronger greening trends in boreal forests of Siberia than in North America are associated with a stronger increase in water availability from melting permafrost soils. Our findings emphasize that in addition to cold temperatures, water availability is a codominant control for start of growing season and peak greenness trends at the global scale. PMID:25882036

  10. Interannual Variations in Global Vegetation Phenology Derived from a Long Term AVHRR and MODIS Data Record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, X.; Friedl, M. A.; Yu, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Land surface phenology metrics are widely retrieved from satellite observations at regional and global scales, and have been shown to be valuable for monitoring terrestrial ecosystem dynamics in response to extreme climate events and predicting biological responses to future climate scenarios. While the response of spring vegetation greenup to climate warming at mid-to-high latitudes is well-documented, understanding of diverse phenological responses to climate change over entire growing cycles and at broad geographic scales is incomplete. Many studies assume that the timing of individual phenological indicators in responses to climate forcing is independent of phenological events that occur at other times during the growing season. In this paper we use a different strategy. Specifically, we hypothesize that integrating sequences of key phenological indicators across growing seasons provides a more effective way to capture long-term variation in phenology in response to climate change. To explore this hypothesis we use global land surface phenology metrics derived from the Version 3 Long Term Vegetation Index Products from Multiple Satellite Data Records data set to examine interannual variations and trends in global land surface phenology from 1982-2010. Using daily enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data at a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees, we model the phenological trajectory for each individual pixel using piecewise logistic models. The modeled trajectories were then used to detect phenological indicators including the onset of greenness increase, the onset of greenness maximum, the onset of greenness decrease, the onset of greenness minimum, and the growing season length, among others at global scale. The quality of land surface phenology detection for individual pixels was calculated based on metrics that characterize the EVI quality and model fits in annual time series at each pixel. Phenological indicators characterized as having good quality were then

  11. Intraseasonal to interannual variability of summer monsoon rainfall and its influence on the Agricultural corps in mountainous Kashmir

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hussain, Z.; Saeed, S.

    2012-04-01

    By using high resolution APHRODITE precipitation and meteorological station data (1961-2007) the present study examines the intraseasonal to interannual variability of the monsoon rainfall over mountainous Kashmir and its influence on the agricultural crops such as Maiz and Wheat. It is found that an intraseasonal to interannual variability of the monsoon rainfall can severely affect the crop production in the hilly areas of Kashmir. We found an increasing trend in the extreme precipitation events over Kashmir and adjacent areas in the recent years. The associated crop production shows significant decreasing trend especially over the hilly areas in Kashmir. The enhanced rainfall can result in the soil erosion that impose a major threat to sustainable agriculture in the mountainous areas of Kashmir. The heavy rainfall associated with the orographic uplifitng removes the uppermost fertile layer of soil, depleting fertility and leaving the soil in poor physical condition. This further causes severe deficiency of most important nutrients required for plant growth and crop yield. We further analysed the IPCC AR4 ECHAM5/MPIOM climate model simulations to examine the future interannual variability of monsoon rainfall over Kashmir and adjoining areas. In the following we analysed the transient run with a 1% per year increase in CO2 until reaching double concentrations and held constant thereafter. We found enhanced interannual variability of the summer monsoon rainfall (July-August) with increasing drought like conditions over Kashmir and adjoining northern parts of Pakistan in future climate. The enhanced interannual variability of precipitation in future could further affect severely growth of various agricultural crops in mountainous parts of Kashmir.

  12. Interannual Variability in Global Soil Respiration on a 0.5 Degree Grid Cell Basis (1980-1994)

    SciTech Connect

    Raich, J.W.

    2003-09-15

    We used a climate-driven regression model to develop spatially resolved estimates of soil-CO{sub 2} emissions from the terrestrial land surface for each month from January 1980 to December 1994, to evaluate the effects of interannual variations in climate on global soil-to-atmosphere CO{sub 2} fluxes. The mean annual global soil-CO{sub 2} flux over this 15-y period was estimated to be 80.4 (range 79.3-81.8) Pg C. Monthly variations in global soil-CO{sub 2} emissions followed closely the mean temperature cycle of the Northern Hemisphere. Globally, soil-CO{sub 2} emissions reached their minima in February and peaked in July and August. Tropical and subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests contributed more soil-derived CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere than did any other vegetation type ({approx}30% of the total) and exhibited a biannual cycle in their emissions. Soil-CO{sub 2} emissions in other biomes exhibited a single annual cycle that paralleled the seasonal temperature cycle. Interannual variability in estimated global soil-CO{sub 2} production is substantially less than is variability in net carbon uptake by plants (i.e., net primary productivity). Thus, soils appear to buffer atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations against far more dramatic seasonal and interannual differences in plant growth. Within seasonally dry biomes (savannas, bushlands, and deserts), interannual variability in soil-CO{sub 2} emissions correlated significantly with interannual differences in precipitation. At the global scale, however, annual soil-CO{sub 2} fluxes correlated with mean annual temperature, with a slope of 3.3 PgCY{sup -1} per degree Celsius. Although the distribution of precipitation influences seasonal and spatial patterns of soil-CO{sub 2} emissions, global warming is likely to stimulate CO{sub 2} emissions from soils.

  13. Recurrent aphthous stomatitis

    PubMed Central

    Preeti, L; Magesh, KT; Rajkumar, K; Karthik, Raghavendhar

    2011-01-01

    Recurrent aphthous ulcers are common painful mucosal conditions affecting the oral cavity. Despite their high prevalence, etiopathogenesis remains unclear. This review article summarizes the clinical presentation, diagnostic criteria, and recent trends in the management of recurrent apthous stomatitis. PMID:22144824

  14. Subperiostial recurrence of chondroblastoma.

    PubMed

    Reddy, Sumanth; Deavers, Michael; Lin, Patrick; Haygood, Tamara Miner

    2009-01-01

    We present a case of subperiosteal recurrence of chondroblastoma adjacent to the greater trochanter that was initially thought to represent septic arthritis of the hip in a 10-year-old girl. Soft-tissue recurrence of chondroblastoma is very rare, with fewer than ten cases reported in the literature. We demonstrate the recurrence on both CT and MRI. The MRI clearly demonstrates the soft-tissue recurrence and the associated inflammatory changes, with signal characteristics not unlike the primary tumor. PMID:27307836

  15. Analyzing consistency of interannual variability in air-sea sensible and latent heat fluxes in CMIP5 model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serykh, Ilya; Gulev, Sergey

    2015-04-01

    Surface turbulent heat fluxes are critically important in climate model experiments, since they represent a language of communication of the ocean and atmosphere. Interannual variability of surface turbulent heat fluxes is believed to be the major contributor to the changes in the ocean surface heat balance, at least in mid latitudes. Being relatively well assessed and validated in reanalyses, surface turbulent heat fluxes always were of a lesser attention in diagnostics of climate model experiments. We analysed interannual variability of sensible and latent heat fluxes in historical climate simulations with several CMIP5 models. Variability in surface turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes in model simulations has been analysed during several last decades (from 1950s to 2005) with the emphasis on different scales of variability (short-term, interannual, decadal). At all scales has been found a little consistency between the changes in turbulent surface fluxes diagnosed by reanalyses and blended data sets (OA-FLUX) on one hand and model simulations on the other. Furthermore, some models (e.g. ECHAM, IPSL) surprisingly demonstrate large regions with negative correlations between sensible and latent heat fluxes, which is not the case in observational data sets (reanalyses and OAFLUX). Interestingly, variability in air temperature and surface humidity (which could be potentially considered as the reason for autocorrelation between sensible and latent fluxes) demonstrates consistency with each other at most scales. Further we discuss potential reasons for the discovered phenomenon.

  16. Space-Time Structure of Monsoon Interannual Variability.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terray, Pascal

    1995-11-01

    The analysis of corrected ship reports [sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), air temperature (AT)] and corrected land data (SLP, AT, rainfall) in the Indian sector reveals the existence of two low-frequency modes of monsoon variability during the 1900-1970 period. A definite biennial (B) mode exists on the SLP fields. This B oscillation is unambiguously linked with a southwest-northeast SLP anomaly gradient. During the summer monsoon, the B SLP pattern can be interpreted as an expansion/contraction of the monsoon activity since this mode is strongly coupled with rainfall variations over peninsular India. A strong low-frequency (LF) mode with period spanning 4-6 years is also seen on SLP fields over the Indian Ocean and subcontinent. The variance associated with this band is typically more important than the one observed for the B mode, and its spatial mark is also strikingly different since it is linked with a global pattern of variation. This mode has also a strong influence on the Indian summer rainfall fluctuations, particularly on the Ghats and in the Indo-Gangetic plains.The amplitude of these oscillations varies widely during the 1900-1970 period. The LF mode is well defined during 1900-1923 and 1947-1970. There is a tendency for the energy associated with the B mode to decrease on the land while it increases over the Indian Ocean during the whole 1900-1970 interval.Although these two timescales exist also on SST fields, cross-spectral analysis shows that ocean-atmosphere interactions are much stronger at the B timescale. This result stresses the B nature of the monsoon system.The existence of these interannual signals in the Indian areas where the annual cycle is so strong raises difficult problems: How can climatic anomalies persist for several years in spite of strong seasonality? Or, still more intriguing, how can be explained the persistence of climatic anomalies during one year and the appearance of opposite sign climatic anomalies

  17. Interannual variation of global atmospheric angular momentum

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Tsing-Chang; Yen, Ming-Cheng; Tribbia, J.J.

    1996-10-01

    The relative atmospheric angular momentum (RAM) integrated over the globe is an explicit variable representing the state of the atmospheric general circulation. After removing the annual, semiannual, and higher-frequency components, the filtered global RAM time series for the past 14 years (1979-92) is highly correlated with both the Southern Oscillation index and the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature averaged over Area NINO-3 (5{degrees}S-5{degrees}N, 150{degrees}W-90{degrees}W). The interannual variation of global RAM is coherent with the poleward propagation of RAM anomalies. The global RAM anomalies reach their minimum values when westerly anomalies emerge in the Tropics and higher latitudes during a cold El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. On the other hand, global RAM anomalies attain their maximum values when westerly anomalies arrive at the subtropics of both hemispheres during a warm ENSO event. It is demonstrated that the poleward propagation of RAM anomalies results from the flip-flop oscillation of the anomalous circulation between cold and warm ENSO events. 11 refs., 3 figs.

  18. Projected Changes in Mean and Interannual Variability of Surface Water over Continental China

    SciTech Connect

    Leng, Guoyong; Tang, Qiuhong; Huang, Maoyi; Hong, Yang; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-05-01

    Five General Circulation Model (GCM) climate projections under the RCP8.5 emission scenario were used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to investigate the impacts of climate change on hydrologic cycle over continental China in the 21st century. The bias-corrected climatic variables were generated for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). Results showed much larger fractional changes of annual mean Evaportranspiration (ET) per unit warming than the corresponding fractional changes of Precipitation (P) per unit warming across the country especially for South China, which led to notable decrease of surface water variability (P-E). Specifically, negative trends for annual mean runoff up to -0.33%/decade and soil moisture trends varying between -0.02 to -0.13%/decade were found for most river basins across China. Coincidentally, interannual variability for both runoff and soil moisture exhibited significant positive trends for almost all river basins across China, implying an increase in extremes relative to the mean conditions. Noticeably, the largest positive trends for runoff variability and soil moisture variability, which were up to 38 0.41%/decade and 0.90%/decade, both occurred in Southwest China. In addition to the regional contrast, intra-seasonal variation was also large for the runoff mean and runoff variability changes, but small for the soil moisture mean and variability changes. Our results suggest that future climate change could further exacerbate existing water-related risks (e.g. floods and droughts) across China as indicated by the marked decrease of surface water amounts combined with steady increase of interannual variability throughout the 21st century. This study highlights the regional contrast and intra-seasonal variations for the projected hydrologic changes and could provide muti

  19. Interannual-decadal variability of wintertime mixed layer depths in the North Pacific detected by an ensemble of ocean syntheses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toyoda, Takahiro; Fujii, Yosuke; Kuragano, Tsurane; Kosugi, Naohiro; Sasano, Daisuke; Kamachi, Masafumi; Ishikawa, Yoichi; Masuda, Shuhei; Sato, Kanako; Awaji, Toshiyuki; Hernandez, Fabrice; Ferry, Nicolas; Guinehut, Stéphanie; Martin, Matthew; Andrew Peterson, K.; Good, Simon A.; Valdivieso, Maria; Haines, Keith; Storto, Andrea; Masina, Simona; Köhl, Armin; Yin, Yonghong; Shi, Li; Alves, Oscar; Smith, Gregory; Chang, You-Soon; Vernieres, Guillaume; Wang, Xiaochun; Forget, Gael; Heimbach, Patrick; Wang, Ou; Fukumori, Ichiro; Lee, Tong; Zuo, Hao; Balmaseda, Magdalena

    2015-08-01

    The interannual-decadal variability of the wintertime mixed layer depths (MLDs) over the North Pacific is investigated from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of an ensemble of global ocean reanalyses. The first leading EOF mode represents the interannual MLD anomalies centered in the eastern part of the central mode water formation region in phase opposition with those in the eastern subtropics and the central Alaskan Gyre. This first EOF mode is highly correlated with the Pacific decadal oscillation index on both the interannual and decadal time scales. The second leading EOF mode represents the MLD variability in the subtropical mode water (STMW) formation region and has a good correlation with the wintertime West Pacific (WP) index with time lag of 3 years, suggesting the importance of the oceanic dynamical response to the change in the surface wind field associated with the meridional shifts of the Aleutian Low. The above MLD variabilities are in basic agreement with previous observational and modeling findings. Moreover the reanalysis ensemble provides uncertainty estimates. The interannual MLD anomalies in the first and second EOF modes are consistently represented by the individual reanalyses and the amplitudes of the variabilities generally exceed the ensemble spread of the reanalyses. Besides, the resulting MLD variability indices, spanning the 1948-2012 period, should be helpful for characterizing the North Pacific climate variability. In particular, a 6-year oscillation including the WP teleconnection pattern in the atmosphere and the oceanic MLD variability in the STMW formation region is first detected.

  20. Wavelet Analysis of the Interannual Variability in Southern Québec Streamflow.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anctil, François; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2004-01-01

    The objectives of this study are to describe the local interannual variability in southern Québec, Canada, streamflow, based on wavelet analysis, and to identify plausible climatic teleconnections that could explain these local variations. Scale-averaged wavelet power spectra are used to simultaneously assess the interannual and spatial variability in 18 contiguous annual streamflow time series. The span of available observations, 1938 2000, allows depicting the variance for periods up to about 12 yr. The most striking feature, in the 2 3-yr band and in the 3 6-yr band—the 6 12-yr band is dominated by white noise and is not considered further—is a net distinction between the timing of the interannual variability in local western and eastern streamflows, which may be linked to the local climatology. This opens up the opportunity to construct two regional time series using principal component (PC) analysis. Then, for each band, linear relationships are sought between the regional streamflow and five selected climatic indices: the Pacific North America (PNA), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Northern Hemisphere annular mode (NAM), the Baffin Island West Atlantic (BWA) and the sea surface temperature anomalies over the Niño-3 region (ENSO3). The correlation analysis revealed the presence of a change point in the streamflow time series, as reported by others, occurring around 1970. For example, the west and east 2 3-yr bands are positively correlated to PNA since 1970, which was not the case prior to that change point. The proposed regional east west divide is particularly evident prior to 1970, with a negative NAM correlation for the west and a positive NAM (and negative ENSO3) for the east. The picture for the less energetic 3 6-yr band is mixed, with alternating dominance of teleconnection patterns, but the 1970 change point holds.

  1. Interannual variation and long-term trends in proportions of resident individuals in partially migratory birds.

    PubMed

    Meller, Kalle; Vähätalo, Anssi V; Hokkanen, Tatu; Rintala, Jukka; Piha, Markus; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

    2016-03-01

    Partial migration - a part of a population migrates and another part stays resident year-round on the breeding site - is probably the most common type of migration in the animal kingdom, yet it has only lately garnered more attention. Theoretical studies indicate that in partially migratory populations, the proportion of resident individuals (PoR) should increase in high latitudes in response to the warming climate, but empirical evidence exists for few species. We provide the first comprehensive overview of the environmental factors affecting PoR and the long-term trends in PoR by studying 27 common partially migratory bird species in Finland. The annual PoR values were calculated by dividing the winter bird abundance by the preceding breeding abundance. First, we analysed whether early-winter temperature, winter temperature year before or the abundance of tree seeds just before overwintering explains the interannual variation in PoR. Secondly, we analysed the trends in PoR between 1987 and 2011. Early-winter temperature explained the interannual variation in PoR in the waterbirds (waterfowl and gulls), most likely because the temperature affects the ice conditions and thereby the feeding opportunities for the waterbirds. In terrestrial species, the abundance of seeds was the best explanatory variable. Previous winter's temperature did not explain PoR in any species, and thus, we conclude that the variation in food availability caused the interannual variation in PoR. During the study period, PoR increased in waterbirds, but did not change in terrestrial birds. Partially migratory species living in physically contrasting habitats can differ in their annual and long-term population-level behavioural responses to warming climate, possibly because warm winter temperatures reduce ice cover and improve the feeding possibilities of waterbirds but do not directly regulate the food availability for terrestrial birds.

  2. Inter-annual and spatial variability in hillslope runoff and mercury flux during spring snowmelt.

    PubMed

    Haynes, Kristine M; Mitchell, Carl P J

    2012-08-01

    Spring snowmelt is an important period of mercury (Hg) export from watersheds. Limited research has investigated the potential effects of climate variability on hydrologic and Hg fluxes during spring snowmelt. The purpose of this research was to assess the potential impacts of inter-annual climate variability on Hg mobility in forested uplands, as well as spatial variability in hillslope hydrology and Hg fluxes. We compared hydrological flows, Hg and solute mobility from three adjacent hillslopes in the S7 watershed of the Marcell Experimental Forest, Minnesota during two very different spring snowmelt periods: one following a winter (2009-2010) with severely diminished snow accumulation (snow water equivalent (SWE) = 48 mm) with an early melt, and a second (2010-2011) with significantly greater winter snow accumulation (SWE = 98 mm) with average to late melt timing. Observed inter-annual differences in total Hg (THg) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) yields were predominantly flow-driven, as the proportion by which solute yields increased was the same as the increase in runoff. Accounting for inter-annual differences in flow, there was no significant difference in THg and DOC export between the two snowmelt periods. The spring 2010 snowmelt highlighted the important contribution of melting soil frost in the timing of a considerable portion of THg exported from the hillslope, accounting for nearly 30% of the THg mobilized. Differences in slope morphology and soil depths to the confining till layer were important in controlling the large observed spatial variability in hydrological flowpaths, transmissivity feedback responses, and Hg flux trends across the adjacent hillslopes.

  3. Interannual variation and long-term trends in proportions of resident individuals in partially migratory birds.

    PubMed

    Meller, Kalle; Vähätalo, Anssi V; Hokkanen, Tatu; Rintala, Jukka; Piha, Markus; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

    2016-03-01

    Partial migration - a part of a population migrates and another part stays resident year-round on the breeding site - is probably the most common type of migration in the animal kingdom, yet it has only lately garnered more attention. Theoretical studies indicate that in partially migratory populations, the proportion of resident individuals (PoR) should increase in high latitudes in response to the warming climate, but empirical evidence exists for few species. We provide the first comprehensive overview of the environmental factors affecting PoR and the long-term trends in PoR by studying 27 common partially migratory bird species in Finland. The annual PoR values were calculated by dividing the winter bird abundance by the preceding breeding abundance. First, we analysed whether early-winter temperature, winter temperature year before or the abundance of tree seeds just before overwintering explains the interannual variation in PoR. Secondly, we analysed the trends in PoR between 1987 and 2011. Early-winter temperature explained the interannual variation in PoR in the waterbirds (waterfowl and gulls), most likely because the temperature affects the ice conditions and thereby the feeding opportunities for the waterbirds. In terrestrial species, the abundance of seeds was the best explanatory variable. Previous winter's temperature did not explain PoR in any species, and thus, we conclude that the variation in food availability caused the interannual variation in PoR. During the study period, PoR increased in waterbirds, but did not change in terrestrial birds. Partially migratory species living in physically contrasting habitats can differ in their annual and long-term population-level behavioural responses to warming climate, possibly because warm winter temperatures reduce ice cover and improve the feeding possibilities of waterbirds but do not directly regulate the food availability for terrestrial birds. PMID:26718017

  4. Interannual variability of Indian Ocean subtropical mode water subduction rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Jie; Lan, Jian

    2016-08-01

    The interannual variation of Indian Ocean subtropical mode water (IOSTMW) subduction rate in the Southwest Indian Ocean from 1980 to 2007 is investigated in this paper based on Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) outputs. Climatology of subduction rate exceeds 75 m/year in the IOSTMW formation area. The renewal time of permanent pycnocline water mass based on the subduction rate is calculated for each density class: 3-6 years for IOSTMW (25.8 < σ θ < 26.2 kg m-3). Subduction rate in the Southwest Indian Ocean subtropical gyre exhibits a great year-to-year variability. This interannual variations of the IOSTMW subduction rate is primarily dominated by the lateral induction term, associated with the interannual variations of strong meridional gradient of winter mixed layer depth (MLD). The slope of the mixed layer depth in the mode water is closely linked to the large variations of deep late winter MLD in the mid-latitudes and negligible variations of shallow winter MLD in lower latitudes. It is further identified that the interannual variation of late winter MLD in this area is largely controlled by the latent and sensible heat flux components. The water volume of the permanent pycnocline in the IOSTMW distribution area is also found to show a significant interannual variability, and it is well correlated with the interannual variation of subduction rate.

  5. Interannual variability in aboveground tree growth in Stehekin River watershed, North Cascade Range, Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hessl, Amy E.; Peterson, D.L.

    2004-01-01

    Many forests in the Pacific Northwest region of North America are both highly productive and sensitive to climate. The combination of productivity and sensitivity makes forests vulnerable to changes in future climate and most likely to feed back to the regional carbon cycle. We reconstructed basal area increment (BAI) for 20 yr using tree-ring increments and diameter to identify species-specific responses of 14 forested vegetation types in the Stehekin River watershed in the North Cascade Range, to interannual climatic variability. Mean basal area increment (MBAI) for the 20-yr period is low when the standard error is low, but as MBAI increases, the standard error (SE) is more variable. Growth at sites with both low SE and MBAI may be related to climatic variables, however, some forest types dominated by Douglas-fir and mountain hemlock are both productive and responsive to climatic variability. Many forests in the Pacific Northwest are dominated by Douglas-fir, a commercially important timber species, and as a result, may play a major role in the regional carbon balance. Douglas-fir and mountain hemlock forests in the eastern portion of the North Cascades should be carefully monitored and managed in the context of both changing climatic conditions and regional carbon budgets.

  6. Modeling interannual variability of seasonal evaporation and storage change based on the extended Budyko framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Xi; Alimohammadi, Negin; Wang, Dingbao

    2013-09-01

    Long-term climate is the first-order control on mean annual water balance, and vegetation and the interactions between climate seasonality and soil water storage change have also been found to play important roles. The purpose of this paper is to extend the Budyko hypothesis to the seasonal scale and to develop a model for interannual variability of seasonal evaporation and storage change. A seasonal aridity index is defined as the ratio of potential evaporation to effective precipitation, where effective precipitation is the difference between rainfall and storage change. Correspondingly, evaporation ratio is defined as the ratio of evaporation to effective precipitation. A modified Turc-Pike equation with a horizontal shift is proposed to model interannual variability of seasonal evaporation ratio as a function of seasonal aridity index, which includes rainfall seasonality and soil water change. The performance of the seasonal water balance model is evaluated for 277 watersheds in the United States. The 99% of wet seasons and 90% of dry seasons have Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients larger than 0.5. The developed seasonal model can be applied for constructing long-term evaporation and storage change data when rainfall, potential evaporation, and runoff observations are available. On the other hand, vegetation affects seasonal water balance by controlling both evaporation and soil moisture dynamics. The correlation between NDVI and evaporation is strong particularly in wet seasons. However, the correlation between NDVI and the seasonal model parameters is only strong in dry seasons.

  7. Interannual variations of freshwater in Hornsund

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dølven, Knut Ola; Falck, Eva

    2015-04-01

    Hornsund is a fjord situated at the south-west coast of Spitsbergen. The main goal of this study is to calculate and describe the interannual variations of freshwater content in Hornsund. In addition to this, we aim to trace the freshwater sources to the fjord and calculate the fractional contributions from these by using oxygen isotope data. The mixing between these freshwater sources and oceanic waters is described as well as the general summer hydrography of the fjord. Calculation of freshwater content is based on Conductivity-Temperature-Depth data obtained in July of 2001 to 2014. Oxygen isotope data are obtained in Autumn 2013/2014 and Spring 2014. The freshwater in Hornsund is assumed to be provided by either meteoric freshwater sources (glacial melt/precipitation/river-runoff) or the melting of sea ice. Both sources can be produced locally or advected into the fjord. The fraction of the ¹⁸O isotope (δ¹⁸O) is an effective tracer for freshwater sources in the Arctic due to the progressive depletion of this isotope in water molecules during poleward atmospheric transport (Ostlund and Hut, 1984). Calculation of fractional contribution from the two freshwater sources is done based on a method presented in Ostlund and Hut (1984), where the mass-balance, salinity-balance and δ¹⁸O-balance are utilized to calculate the fractions of seawater, meteoric water and sea ice meltwater. Preliminary results show freshwater content varying between 0.211km³ and 1.068km³, based on a reference salinity of 34.2. In Autumn 2013, meteoric water was the largest contributor of freshwater to the fjord. However, there was a significant contribution of sea ice meltwater which had a deeper vertical distribution than the meteoric water. References: H. G. Ostlund and G. Hut. 1984. Arctic Ocean water mass balance from isotope data. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 89(C4):6373-6381

  8. Interannual variations and trends in global land surface phenology derived from enhanced vegetation index during 1982-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xiaoyang; Tan, Bin; Yu, Yunyue

    2014-05-01

    Land surface phenology is widely retrieved from satellite observations at regional and global scales, and its long-term record has been demonstrated to be a valuable tool for reconstructing past climate variations, monitoring the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems in response to climate impacts, and predicting biological responses to future climate scenarios. This study detected global land surface phenology from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 1982 to 2010. Based on daily enhanced vegetation index at a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees, we simulated the seasonal vegetative trajectory for each individual pixel using piecewise logistic models, which was then used to detect the onset of greenness increase (OGI) and the length of vegetation growing season (GSL). Further, both overall interannual variations and pixel-based trends were examined across Koeppen's climate regions for the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010, respectively. The results show that OGI and GSL varied considerably during 1982-2010 across the globe. Generally, the interannual variation could be more than a month in precipitation-controlled tropical and dry climates while it was mainly less than 15 days in temperature-controlled temperate, cold, and polar climates. OGI, overall, shifted early, and GSL was prolonged from 1982 to 2010 in most climate regions in North America and Asia while the consistently significant trends only occurred in cold climate and polar climate in North America. The overall trends in Europe were generally insignificant. Over South America, late OGI was consistent (particularly from 1982 to 1999) while either positive or negative GSL trends in a climate region were mostly reversed between the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010. In the Northern Hemisphere of Africa, OGI trends were mostly insignificant, but prolonged GSL was evident over individual climate regions during the last 3

  9. Interannual variations and trends in global land surface phenology derived from enhanced vegetation index during 1982-2010.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xiaoyang; Tan, Bin; Yu, Yunyue

    2014-05-01

    Land surface phenology is widely retrieved from satellite observations at regional and global scales, and its long-term record has been demonstrated to be a valuable tool for reconstructing past climate variations, monitoring the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems in response to climate impacts, and predicting biological responses to future climate scenarios. This study detected global land surface phenology from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 1982 to 2010. Based on daily enhanced vegetation index at a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees, we simulated the seasonal vegetative trajectory for each individual pixel using piecewise logistic models, which was then used to detect the onset of greenness increase (OGI) and the length of vegetation growing season (GSL). Further, both overall interannual variations and pixel-based trends were examined across Koeppen's climate regions for the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010, respectively. The results show that OGI and GSL varied considerably during 1982-2010 across the globe. Generally, the interannual variation could be more than a month in precipitation-controlled tropical and dry climates while it was mainly less than 15 days in temperature-controlled temperate, cold, and polar climates. OGI, overall, shifted early, and GSL was prolonged from 1982 to 2010 in most climate regions in North America and Asia while the consistently significant trends only occurred in cold climate and polar climate in North America. The overall trends in Europe were generally insignificant. Over South America, late OGI was consistent (particularly from 1982 to 1999) while either positive or negative GSL trends in a climate region were mostly reversed between the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010. In the Northern Hemisphere of Africa, OGI trends were mostly insignificant, but prolonged GSL was evident over individual climate regions during the last 3

  10. Interannual variations and trends in global land surface phenology derived from enhanced vegetation index during 1982-2010.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xiaoyang; Tan, Bin; Yu, Yunyue

    2014-05-01

    Land surface phenology is widely retrieved from satellite observations at regional and global scales, and its long-term record has been demonstrated to be a valuable tool for reconstructing past climate variations, monitoring the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems in response to climate impacts, and predicting biological responses to future climate scenarios. This study detected global land surface phenology from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 1982 to 2010. Based on daily enhanced vegetation index at a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees, we simulated the seasonal vegetative trajectory for each individual pixel using piecewise logistic models, which was then used to detect the onset of greenness increase (OGI) and the length of vegetation growing season (GSL). Further, both overall interannual variations and pixel-based trends were examined across Koeppen's climate regions for the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010, respectively. The results show that OGI and GSL varied considerably during 1982-2010 across the globe. Generally, the interannual variation could be more than a month in precipitation-controlled tropical and dry climates while it was mainly less than 15 days in temperature-controlled temperate, cold, and polar climates. OGI, overall, shifted early, and GSL was prolonged from 1982 to 2010 in most climate regions in North America and Asia while the consistently significant trends only occurred in cold climate and polar climate in North America. The overall trends in Europe were generally insignificant. Over South America, late OGI was consistent (particularly from 1982 to 1999) while either positive or negative GSL trends in a climate region were mostly reversed between the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010. In the Northern Hemisphere of Africa, OGI trends were mostly insignificant, but prolonged GSL was evident over individual climate regions during the last 3

  11. Interannual and interdecadal variability in 335 years of central England temperatures

    SciTech Connect

    Plaut, G.; Ghil, M.; Vautard, R.

    1995-05-05

    Understanding the natural variability of climate is important for predicting its near-term evolution. Models of the oceans` thermohaline and wind-driven circulation show low-frequency oscillations. Long instrumental records can help validate the oscillatory behavior of these models. Singular spectrum analysis applied to the 335-year-long central England temperature (CET) record has identified climate oscillations with interannual (7- to 8-year) and interdecadal (15- and 25-year) periods, probably related to the North Atlantic`s wind-driven and thermohaline circulation, respectively. Statistical prediction of oscillatory variability shows CETs decreasing toward the end of this decade and rising again into the middle of the next. 42 refs., 4 figs.

  12. Weather and Climatic Drivers of Extreme Flooding Events over the Midwest of the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robertson, A. W.; Lall, U.; Kushnir, Y.; Nakamura, J.

    2012-12-01

    There is an urgent need to better understand how partly predictable modes of climate variability impact the probability of flood events in space and time, across multiple time scales, from weekly to seasonal, interannual and beyond. Climate undergoes natural fluctuations through persistent and oscillatory regimes at intraseasonal (e.g., the 30--60 day Madden Julian Oscillation, MJO), interannual (e.g., the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO) timescales, as well as decadal and longer (e.g., the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO), and as a function of anthropogenic changes of the atmosphere and land surface. This multi-timescale climatic evolution modulates the ``odds'' for local precipitation and soil moisture events, and hence for floods. An outstanding scientific challenge is to develop predictive probabilistic climate information of flood likelihood across these time scales, and to determine in which regions/basins or time-windows of opportunity such information may be of potential practical value. Using the Midwest of the United States as a case study, we present an analysis of daily circulation regimes derived from reanalysis wind data using a K-means cluster analysis for the March--May season, from which we infer relationships between flooding events and circulation regimes, as well as relationships between these regimes and climate variations throughout the 20th century on interdecadal, interannual, as well as intraseasonal timescales. The results of this work illustrate how typical and recurrent synoptic daily circulation patterns that drive enhanced southerly fluxes of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico are preferentially associated with extreme floods over the U.S. Midwest during the spring season, and how these same geopotential height patterns tend to occur more frequently during the La Niña phase of ENSO and certain phases of the MJO. The seasonality of flood occurrence as a function of latitude and longitude within the Midwest is tied to the seasonality

  13. Climatic Versus Biotic Constraints on Carbon and Water Fluxes in Seasonally Drought-affected Ponderosa Pine Ecosystems. Chapter 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schwarz, P. A.; Law, B. E.; Williams, M.; Irvine, J.; Kurpius, M.; Moore, D.

    2005-01-01

    We investigated the relative importance of climatic versus biotic controls on gross primary production (GPP) and water vapor fluxes in seasonally drought-affected ponderosa pine forests. The study was conducted in young (YS), mature (MS), and old stands (OS) over 4 years at the AmeriFlux Metolius sites. Model simulations showed that interannual variation of GPP did not follow the same trends as precipitation, and effects of climatic variation were smallest at the OS (50%), and intermediate at the YS (<20%). In the young, developing stand, interannual variation in leaf area has larger effects on fluxes than climate, although leaf area is a function of climate in that climate can interact with age-related shifts in carbon allocation and affect whole-tree hydraulic conductance. Older forests, with well-established root systems, appear to be better buffered from effects of seasonal drought and interannual climatic variation. Interannual variation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) was also lowest at the OS, where NEE is controlled more by interannual variation of ecosystem respiration, 70% of which is from soil, than by the variation of GPP, whereas variation in GPP is the primary reason for interannual changes in NEE at the YS and MS. Across spatially heterogeneous landscapes with high frequency of younger stands resulting from natural and anthropogenic disturbances, interannual climatic variation and change in leaf area are likely to result in large interannual variation in GPP and NEE.

  14. Interannual variability and decadal trends in carbon exchange at the Harvard Forest EMS site

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munger, J.. W.; Wofsy, S. C.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Medvigy, D.

    2009-04-01

    The Harvard Forest EMS site in a mixed deciduous forest in central Massachusetts has been measuring carbon, water, and energy fluxes since 1992. Above-ground biomass, litter input, and tree mortality have been measured since 1995. The forest at this site has consistently been a net sink for carbon over the measurement period with annual uptake rates of 1.0 to > 5.Mg-C ha-1y-1. Carbon uptake rates show a significant increasing trend, despite the forest being 75- 110 years old. There were parallel increases in midsummer photosynthetic capacity at high light level (21.5-31.5 mole m-2s-1), woody biomass (101-115 Mg-C ha-1from 1993-2005, mostly due to growth of one species, red oak), and peak leaf area index (4.5-5.5 m2m-2from 1998-2005). These long-term trends were interrupted in 1998 by sharp declines in photosynthetic capacity, net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2, and other parameters, followed by recovery over the next 3 years. The dip in 1998 could not be directly attributed to any one cause, though leaf expansion in the spring appeared to stall during a period of unfavorable weather, and did not recover later in the summer. Annual increment of above-ground woody biomass has followed the trend in NEE with 1 year offset implying that spring wood growth is supplied by carbon fixed in the previous year. An empirical model of carbon fluxes based on mean temperature and light response functions and observed phenology represents the hourly to seasonal patterns in carbon fluxes but can not adequately account for interannual variability or the long-term trends in carbon uptake. A structured ecosystem model (ED2) that represented both canopy-scale physiology and long-term dynamics of tree growth, mortality, and species composition was able to simulate interannual variability over decadal intervals better than the empirical model based on mean responses could. These results imply that direct effects of climate variability only partially account for interannual variability in

  15. Subseasonal change in interannual variations of the Baiu precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamaura, T.; Tomita, T.

    2012-12-01

    Many of previous studies have revealed that interannual variations of precipitation rate in the Baiu frontal zone (BFZ) are linked to large-scale oscillations in the world. This work examines subseasonal change of the interannual variations in the Baiu precipitation. The interannual variation of precipitation rate in the western BFZ is connected to the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) of the Asian monsoon. This variation has a negative correlation between June and July. That is, the precipitation in the western BFZ shows negative anomalies in July when it has positive ones in June. On the other hand, the interannual variation of sea surface temperature (SST) in the western tropical Pacific, which is correlated to the TBO, keeps the similar anomalies from June to July. This suggests that the Baiu frontal activity is changed in seasonal progress even though the SST anomalies in the western tropical Pacific are almost same. The interannual variation of precipitation rate in the central BFZ is correlated to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is identified by approximately 4-year periodicity. This variation is prominent in June, but the anomalies become obscure in July. This is caused by weakening of anomalous high around the Philippine Sea, which controls the precipitation anomalies in the central BFZ. The interannual variation of precipitation rate in the eastern BFZ is associated with the summertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with about 6-year variability. This variation has a tendency to retain the anomalies from early June to middle July. Because strong westerlies from northern Europe to East Asia that acts as a waveguide of Rossby waves in the upper troposphere are maintained during this time period, stationary Rossby waves reach East Asia and induce anomalous precipitation in the eastern BFZ. As such, subseasonal change from June to July is differenct in interannual variations of the Baiu precipitation, i.e., in the western BFZ with 2

  16. Management of recurrent miscarriage.

    PubMed

    Sugiura-Ogasawara, Mayumi; Ozaki, Yasuhiko; Suzumori, Nobuhiro

    2014-05-01

    Recurrent miscarriage is classically defined as three or more consecutive pregnancy losses. Many researchers have now revised this definition to two or more pregnancy losses because of the recent increase in the prevalence of childless couples. Established causes of recurrent miscarriage are antiphospholipid antibodies, uterine anomalies and abnormal chromosomes in either partner, particularly translocations. Antiphospholipid syndrome is the most important treatable cause of recurrent miscarriage. However, it is not yet established as to what kind of testing should be conducted in patients with recurrent pregnancy loss. Standardization of tests for antiphospholipid antibodies is needed. On the other hand, embryonic aneuploidy is the most frequent cause of recurrent miscarriage. Chromosome analysis of the embryo is important, because it has good predictive value for subsequent live birth. It is not necessary to give any medications for unexplained cases of recurrent miscarriage, and provision of psychological support may be the most important to encourage the couples to continue to conceive until a live birth results.

  17. Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Vegetation in Water-Limited Ecosystems: The Role of Interannual Rainfall Variability.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandez-Illescas, C. P.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

    2001-12-01

    In water-limited ecosystems, soil water availability lies at the center of a complex coupling between vegetation and climate. Attempts to understand the temporal and spatial vegetation structure of such systems require the formulation of an spatially explicit model of evolutionary dynamics which accounts for temporal fluctuations in soil moisture amounts. Previous work has linked the analytical treatment of the vegetation-soil-climate system described by Laio et al. (2001) and Porporato et al. (2001) characterizing the impact of intraseasonal soil moisture variability on vegetation overall condition with the hierarchical competition-colonization model of Tilman (1994). In this way, the impact of interannual rainfall fluctuations is incorporated into a model of species competition. Such a hydrologically driven hierarchical competition-colonization model is here modified to differentiate between local and global seed dispersal abilities. Simulations at the La Copita savanna site in Texas where the herbaceous C4 Paspaleum setaceum and the woody Prosopis glandulosa (honey mesquite) coexist, suggest that interannual rainfall variability enhances the impact of local dispersion on the temporal evolution of species abundances as well as on the spatial structure of vegetation. Various descriptors of vegetation patterns, (e.g. cluster size distributions, fractal dimensions) and their sensitivity to interannual rainfall fluctuations will be discussed.

  18. Streamflow forecasts on seasonal and interannual time scales for reservoir management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robertson, A. W.; Lu, M.; Lall, U.

    2014-12-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts are beginning to be complemented by improved forecasting capabilities at both sub-seasonal and interannual annual timescales, with the future prospect of seamless climate forecasts for water system operations. While seasonal predictability is often very limited by physical and modeling constraints, harnessing additional predictable components of the climate system may in some cases substantially increase their usable information content, and provide more flexible forecasts in terms of the kinds of management decisions that can be informed. Here we present an example of combining season and year-ahead streamflow forecasts as input to a multi-use reservoir optimization model, applied to the Bhakra Dam in NW India. Bi-timescale forecasts are made with a seasonal periodic autoregressive (PAR) model with exogenous climate-forecast inputs, together with an annual PAR model fit to observed flows used as a baseline for year-ahead forecasts. Annual net revenue from irrigation and hydropower supplies are calculated with contracts optimized using the reservoir optimization model. With Bhakra Dam inflows deriving from both winter storms/snow melt and the summer monsoon, it is found that net annual revenue is maximized when new contracts are initiated in March and June. We explore various choices of PARX model seasonal predictors based on climate model output and data and show that, with the choice of a good start date, even forecasts with relatively low skill can have value.

  19. Recurrent Takotsubo Cardiomyopathy Related to Recurrent Thyrotoxicosis

    PubMed Central

    Patel, Keval; Griffing, George T.; Hauptman, Paul J.

    2016-01-01

    Takotsubo cardiomyopathy, or transient left ventricular apical ballooning syndrome, is characterized by acute left ventricular dysfunction caused by transient wall-motion abnormalities of the left ventricular apex and mid ventricle in the absence of obstructive coronary artery disease. Recurrent episodes are rare but have been reported, and several cases of takotsubo cardiomyopathy have been described in the presence of hyperthyroidism. We report the case of a 55-year-old woman who had recurrent takotsubo cardiomyopathy, documented by repeat coronary angiography and evaluations of left ventricular function, in the presence of recurrent hyperthyroidism related to Graves disease. After both episodes, the patient's left ventricular function returned to normal when her thyroid function normalized. These findings suggest a possible role of thyroid-hormone excess in the pathophysiology of some patients who have takotsubo cardiomyopathy. PMID:27127432

  20. Recurrent Takotsubo Cardiomyopathy Related to Recurrent Thyrotoxicosis.

    PubMed

    Patel, Keval; Griffing, George T; Hauptman, Paul J; Stolker, Joshua M

    2016-04-01

    Takotsubo cardiomyopathy, or transient left ventricular apical ballooning syndrome, is characterized by acute left ventricular dysfunction caused by transient wall-motion abnormalities of the left ventricular apex and mid ventricle in the absence of obstructive coronary artery disease. Recurrent episodes are rare but have been reported, and several cases of takotsubo cardiomyopathy have been described in the presence of hyperthyroidism. We report the case of a 55-year-old woman who had recurrent takotsubo cardiomyopathy, documented by repeat coronary angiography and evaluations of left ventricular function, in the presence of recurrent hyperthyroidism related to Graves disease. After both episodes, the patient's left ventricular function returned to normal when her thyroid function normalized. These findings suggest a possible role of thyroid-hormone excess in the pathophysiology of some patients who have takotsubo cardiomyopathy. PMID:27127432

  1. Natural and management influences on freshwater inflows and salinity in the San Francisco Estuary at monthly to interannual scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knowles, Noah

    2002-12-01

    Understanding the processes controlling the physics, chemistry, and biology of the San Francisco Estuary and their relation to climate variability is complicated by the combined influence on freshwater inflows of natural variability and upstream management. To distinguish these influences, alterations of estuarine inflow due to major reservoirs and freshwater pumping in the watershed were inferred from available data. Effects on salinity were estimated by using reconstructed estuarine inflows corresponding to differing levels of impairment to drive a numerical salinity model. Both natural and management inflow and salinity signals show strong interannual variability. Management effects raise salinities during the wet season, with maximum influence in spring. While year-to-year variations in all signals are very large, natural interannual variability can greatly exceed the range of management effects on salinity in the estuary.

  2. Natural and management influences on freshwater inflows and salinity in the San Francisco Estuary at monthly to interannual scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knowles, Noah

    2002-01-01

    Understanding the processes controlling the physics, chemistry, and biology of the San Francisco Estuary and their relation to climate variability is complicated by the combined influence on freshwater inflows of natural variability and upstream management. To distinguish these influences, alterations of estuarine inflow due to major reservoirs and freshwater pumping in the watershed were inferred from available data. Effects on salinity were estimated by using reconstructed estuarine inflows corresponding to differing levels of impairment to drive a numerical salinity model. Both natural and management inflow and salinity signals show strong interannual variability. Management effects raise salinities during the wet season, with maximum influence in spring. While year-to-year variations in all signals are very large, natural interannual variability can greatly exceed the range of management effects on salinity in the estuary.

  3. Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 13; Interannual Variability and Potential Predictability in Reanalysis Products

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Min, Wei; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Suarez, Max J. (Editor)

    1997-01-01

    The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at Goddard Space Flight Center and the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) have produced multi-year global assimilations of historical data employing fixed analysis systems. These "reanalysis" products are ideally suited for studying short-term climatic variations. The availability of multiple reanalysis products also provides the opportunity to examine the uncertainty in the reanalysis data. The purpose of this document is to provide an updated estimate of seasonal and interannual variability based on the DAO and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for the 15-year period 1980-1995. Intercomparisons of the seasonal means and their interannual variations are presented for a variety of prognostic and diagnostic fields. In addition, atmospheric potential predictability is re-examined employing selected DAO reanalysis variables.

  4. Oceanic control of Northeast Pacific hurricane activity at interannual timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balaguru, Karthik; Leung, L. Ruby; Yoon, Jin-ho

    2013-12-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) is not the only oceanic parameter that can play a key role in the interannual variability of Northeast Pacific hurricane activity. Using several observational data sets and the statistical technique of multiple linear regression analysis, we show that, along with SST, the thermocline depth (TD) plays an important role in hurricane activity at interannual timescales in this basin. Based on the parameter that dominates, the ocean basin can be divided into two sub-regions. In the Southern sub-region, which includes the hurricane main development area, interannual variability of the upper-ocean heat content (OHC) is primarily controlled by TD variations. Consequently, the interannual variability in the hurricane power dissipation index (PDI), which is a measure of the intensity of hurricane activity, is driven by that of the TD. On the other hand, in the Northern sub-region, SST exerts the major control over the OHC variability and, in turn, the PDI. Our study suggests that both SST and TD have a significant influence on the Northeast Pacific hurricane activity at interannual timescales and that their respective roles are more clearly delineated when sub-regions along an approximate north-south demarcation are considered rather than the basin as a whole.

  5. Seasonal and interannual variability of the eastern boundary circulation and hydrography off Angola

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tchipalanga, Pedro; Macuéria, Marissa; Dengler, Marcus; Ostrowski, Marek; Kopte, Robert; Brandt, Peter

    2016-04-01

    Coastal countries of southwest Africa strongly depend upon their ocean: societal development, fisheries, and tourism face important changes associated with climate variability and global change. As an example, Angolan fisheries are currently reporting reduced catches that may be associated to variability of the eastern boundary circulation and water masses along the Angolan continental margin. In an effort to enhance understanding of the seasonal and interannual variability of the boundary circulation and thermocline water masses and their relation to warm and cold events in South East Atlantic, existing in-situ observations from a multi-cruise program were analyzed. Repeated hydrography and ship-board ADCP measurements from the EAF - Nansen Project collected during the Austral summer and winter period between 1995 and 2014 are used. From the ship-board velocity measurements, the average eastern boundary circulation at 6°S, 9°S, 12°S, 15°S and 17°S is presented for the summer and winter period. CTD data collected during the 24 cruises along the Angolan continental margin exhibit elevated interannual variability of heat and salt content in the upper thermocline between 50 and 150m depth. Warm and cold anomalies in the upper thermocline are strongly correlated to the Angola-Benguela area index and precede the respective sea surface temperature signal. The known warm events in 2001 and 2011 are well represented in the subsurface data. This suggests that thermocline heat anomalies serve as a preconditioning for the occurrences of Benguela Niños/Niñas. The processes responsible for the interannual variability of thermocline heat and salt contend are discussed.

  6. Can Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model Improve the Simulation of the Interannual Variability of Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zou, L.; Zhou, T.

    2012-12-01

    With the motivation to improve the simulation of interannual variability of western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM), a flexible regional ocean-atmosphere-land system coupled model (FROALS) was developed through the OASIS3.0 coupler. The regionally coupled model is composed of a regional climate model RegCM3 as its atmospheric component, a global climate ocean model (LICOM) as its oceanic component. Impacts of local air-sea interaction on the simulation of interannual variability of WNPSM are investigated by performing regionally ocean-atmosphere coupled and uncoupled simulations, with focus on the El Niño decaying summer. Compared to uncoupled simulation, the regionally coupled simulation exhibits improvements in both the climatology and interannual variability of rainfall over WNP. In El Niño decaying summer, the WNP saw an anomalous anticyclone, less rainfall and enhanced subsidence, which led to an increase in downward shortwave radiation flux, and thereby a warmer SST anomalies. Thus the ocean appears as a slave to atmospheric forcing. But in the uncoupled simulation, the atmosphere is a slave to oceanic SST forcing, the warmer SST anomalies located over east of the Philippines unrealistically produce excessive rainfall. In the regionally coupled run, the un-realistic positive rainfall anomalies and the associated atmospheric circulations over east of the Philippines are significantly improved, highlighting the importance of air-sea coupling in the simulation of interannual variability of WNPSM. One limitation of the model is that the anomalous anticyclone over WNP is weaker than the observation in both the regionally coupled and uncoupled simulations. This is resulted from the weaker simulated climatological summer rainfall intensity over the monsoon trough.

  7. Microchimerism in recurrent miscarriage.

    PubMed

    Gammill, Hilary S; Stephenson, Mary D; Aydelotte, Tessa M; Nelson, J Lee

    2014-11-01

    Maternal-fetal cell exchange during pregnancy results in acquisition of microchimerism, which can durably persist in both recipients. Naturally acquired microchimerism may impact maternal-fetal interaction in pregnancy. We conducted studies to ask whether microchimerism that a woman acquired from her own mother is detectable before or during pregnancy in women with recurrent miscarriage. Fetal microchimerism was also assayed. Women with primary idiopathic recurrent miscarriage (n=23) and controls (n=31) were studied. Genotyping was conducted for probands, their mothers and the fetus, a non-shared polymorphism identified and quantitative polymerase chain reaction performed to measure microchimerismin peripheral blood mononuclear cells. Preconception comparisons were made between recurrent miscarriage subjects and controls, using logistic regression and Wilcoxon rank sum. Longitudinal microchimerism in subsequent pregnancies of recurrent miscarriage subjects was described. There was a trend toward lower preconception detection of microchimerism in recurrent miscarriage versus controls, 6% vs. 19% (1/16 vs. 6/31, P=0.2). During pregnancy, 3/11 (27%) of recurrent miscarriage subjects who went on to have a birth had detection of microchimerism from their own mother, whereas neither of two subjects who went on to miscarry had detection (0/2). This initial data suggest that microchimerism from a woman's own mother, while detectable in women with recurrent miscarriage, may differ from controls and according to subsequent pregnancy outcome. Further studies are needed to determine the cell types, quantities and any potential functional role of microchimerism in recurrent miscarriage.

  8. Recurrent mixed tumor.

    PubMed

    Batsakis, J G

    1986-01-01

    Recurrence of benign neoplasms can usually be attributed to incomplete excision. Such is the case with benign mixed tumors of salivary glands. Certain histopathologic features of mixed tumors, however, appear to facilitate recurrences. These are: a predominantly myxoid composition, and transcapsular extension by the tumor. Multicentric origin is possible, but it must be regarded as a much lower order of probability.

  9. Cold Regime Interannual Variability of Primary and Secondary Producer Community Composition in the Southeastern Bering Sea

    PubMed Central

    Stauffer, Beth A.; Miksis-Olds, Jennifer; Goes, Joaquim I.

    2015-01-01

    Variability of hydrographic conditions and primary and secondary productivity between cold and warm climatic regimes in the Bering Sea has been the subject of much study in recent years, while interannual variability within a single regime and across multiple trophic levels has been less well-documented. Measurements from an instrumented mooring on the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea were analyzed for the spring-to-summer transitions within the cold regime years of 2009–2012 to investigate the interannual variability of hydrographic conditions, primary producer biomass, and acoustically-derived secondary producer and consumer abundance and community structure. Hydrographic conditions in 2012 were significantly different than in 2009, 2010, and 2011, driven largely by increased ice extent and thickness, later ice retreat, and earlier stratification of the water column. Primary producer biomass was more tightly coupled to hydrographic conditions in 2012 than in 2009 or 2011, and shallow and mid-column phytoplankton blooms tended to occur independent of one another. There was a high degree of variability in the relationships between different classes of secondary producers and hydrographic conditions, evidence of significant intra-consumer interactions, and trade-offs between different consumer size classes in each year. Phytoplankton blooms stimulated different populations of secondary producers in each year, and summer consumer populations appeared to determine dominant populations in the subsequent spring. Overall, primary producers and secondary producers were more tightly coupled to each other and to hydrographic conditions in the coldest year compared to the warmer years. The highly variable nature of the interactions between the atmospherically-driven hydrographic environment, primary and secondary producers, and within food webs underscores the need to revisit how climatic regimes within the Bering Sea are defined and predicted to function given

  10. The 2009 exceptional Amazon flood and interannual terrestrial water storage change observed by GRACE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, J. L.; Wilson, C. R.; Tapley, B. D.

    2010-12-01

    The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite gravity mission provides a new capability for measuring extreme climate events, such as floods and droughts associated with large-scale terrestrial water storage (TWS) change. GRACE gravity measurements show significant TWS increases in the lower Amazon basin in the first half of 2009, clearly associated with the exceptional flood season in that region. The extended record of GRACE monthly gravity solutions reveals the temporal and spatial evolution of both nonseasonal and interannual TWS change in the Amazon basin over the 7 year mission period from April 2002 to August 2009. GRACE observes a very dry season in 2002-2003 and an extremely wet season in 2009. In March 2009 (approximately the peak of the recent Amazon flood), total TWS surplus in the entire Amazon basin is ˜624 ± 32 Gt, roughly equal to U.S. water consumption for a year. GRACE measurements are consistent with precipitation data. Interannual TWS changes in the Amazon basin are closely connected to ENSO events in the tropical Pacific. The 2002-2003 dry season is clearly tied to the 2002-2003 El Niño and the 2009 flood to the recent La Niña event. The most significant contribution of this study in the area of water resources is to confront the hydrological community with the latest results of the GRACE satellite mission and further demonstrates the unique strength of GRACE and follow-up satellite gravity observations for measuring large-scale extreme climate events.

  11. Cold Regime interannual variability of primary and secondary producer community composition in the southeastern Bering Sea.

    PubMed

    Stauffer, Beth A; Miksis-Olds, Jennifer; Goes, Joaquim I

    2015-01-01

    Variability of hydrographic conditions and primary and secondary productivity between cold and warm climatic regimes in the Bering Sea has been the subject of much study in recent years, while interannual variability within a single regime and across multiple trophic levels has been less well-documented. Measurements from an instrumented mooring on the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea were analyzed for the spring-to-summer transitions within the cold regime years of 2009-2012 to investigate the interannual variability of hydrographic conditions, primary producer biomass, and acoustically-derived secondary producer and consumer abundance and community structure. Hydrographic conditions in 2012 were significantly different than in 2009, 2010, and 2011, driven largely by increased ice extent and thickness, later ice retreat, and earlier stratification of the water column. Primary producer biomass was more tightly coupled to hydrographic conditions in 2012 than in 2009 or 2011, and shallow and mid-column phytoplankton blooms tended to occur independent of one another. There was a high degree of variability in the relationships between different classes of secondary producers and hydrographic conditions, evidence of significant intra-consumer interactions, and trade-offs between different consumer size classes in each year. Phytoplankton blooms stimulated different populations of secondary producers in each year, and summer consumer populations appeared to determine dominant populations in the subsequent spring. Overall, primary producers and secondary producers were more tightly coupled to each other and to hydrographic conditions in the coldest year compared to the warmer years. The highly variable nature of the interactions between the atmospherically-driven hydrographic environment, primary and secondary producers, and within food webs underscores the need to revisit how climatic regimes within the Bering Sea are defined and predicted to function given changing

  12. Cold Regime interannual variability of primary and secondary producer community composition in the southeastern Bering Sea.

    PubMed

    Stauffer, Beth A; Miksis-Olds, Jennifer; Goes, Joaquim I

    2015-01-01

    Variability of hydrographic conditions and primary and secondary productivity between cold and warm climatic regimes in the Bering Sea has been the subject of much study in recent years, while interannual variability within a single regime and across multiple trophic levels has been less well-documented. Measurements from an instrumented mooring on the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea were analyzed for the spring-to-summer transitions within the cold regime years of 2009-2012 to investigate the interannual variability of hydrographic conditions, primary producer biomass, and acoustically-derived secondary producer and consumer abundance and community structure. Hydrographic conditions in 2012 were significantly different than in 2009, 2010, and 2011, driven largely by increased ice extent and thickness, later ice retreat, and earlier stratification of the water column. Primary producer biomass was more tightly coupled to hydrographic conditions in 2012 than in 2009 or 2011, and shallow and mid-column phytoplankton blooms tended to occur independent of one another. There was a high degree of variability in the relationships between different classes of secondary producers and hydrographic conditions, evidence of significant intra-consumer interactions, and trade-offs between different consumer size classes in each year. Phytoplankton blooms stimulated different populations of secondary producers in each year, and summer consumer populations appeared to determine dominant populations in the subsequent spring. Overall, primary producers and secondary producers were more tightly coupled to each other and to hydrographic conditions in the coldest year compared to the warmer years. The highly variable nature of the interactions between the atmospherically-driven hydrographic environment, primary and secondary producers, and within food webs underscores the need to revisit how climatic regimes within the Bering Sea are defined and predicted to function given changing

  13. Dynamical evidence for causality between galactic cosmic rays and interannual variation in global temperature.

    PubMed

    Tsonis, Anastasios A; Deyle, Ethan R; May, Robert M; Sugihara, George; Swanson, Kyle; Verbeten, Joshua D; Wang, Geli

    2015-03-17

    As early as 1959, it was hypothesized that an indirect link between solar activity and climate could be mediated by mechanisms controlling the flux of galactic cosmic rays (CR) [Ney ER (1959) Nature 183:451-452]. Although the connection between CR and climate remains controversial, a significant body of laboratory evidence has emerged at the European Organization for Nuclear Research [Duplissy J, et al. (2010) Atmos Chem Phys 10:1635-1647; Kirkby J, et al. (2011) Nature 476(7361):429-433] and elsewhere [Svensmark H, Pedersen JOP, Marsh ND, Enghoff MB, Uggerhøj UI (2007) Proc R Soc A 463:385-396; Enghoff MB, Pedersen JOP, Uggerhoj UI, Paling SM, Svensmark H (2011) Geophys Res Lett 38:L09805], demonstrating the theoretical mechanism of this link. In this article, we present an analysis based on convergent cross mapping, which uses observational time series data to directly examine the causal link between CR and year-to-year changes in global temperature. Despite a gross correlation, we find no measurable evidence of a causal effect linking CR to the overall 20th-century warming trend. However, on short interannual timescales, we find a significant, although modest, causal effect between CR and short-term, year-to-year variability in global temperature that is consistent with the presence of nonlinearities internal to the system. Thus, although CR do not contribute measurably to the 20th-century global warming trend, they do appear as a nontraditional forcing in the climate system on short interannual timescales.

  14. Inter-Annual Variability of Aerosol Optical Depth over East Asia during 2000-2011 summers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, J.; Liu, Y.; Tao, S.

    2013-12-01

    Aerosols degrade air quality, perturb atmospheric radiation, and impact regional and global climate. Due to a rapid increase of anthropogenic emissions, aerosol loading over East Asia (EA) is markedly higher than other industrialized regions, motivating a need to characterize the evolution of aerosols and understand the associated drivers. Based on the MISR satellite data during 2000-2011, a wave-like inter-annual variation of summertime aerosol optical depth (SAOD) is observed over the highly populated North China Plain (NCP) in East Asia. Specifically, the peak to trough ratio of SAOD ranges from 1.4 to 1.6, with a period of 3-4y. This variation pattern differs apparently from what has been seen in EA emissions, indicating a periodic change in regional climate pattern during the past decade. Investigations on meteorological fields over the region reveal that the high SAOD is generally associated with enhanced Philippine Sea Anticyclone Anomaly (PSAA), which weakens southeasterlies over northeastern EA and depresses air ventilation. Alternatively, a higher temperature or lower relative humidity is found to be coincident with reduced SAOD. The behavior of PSAA has been found previously to be modulated by the El Niño southern oscillations (ENSO), which thereby could disturb the EA SAOD as well. Rather than changing coherently with the ENSO activity, SAOD peaks over the NCP are found to be accompanied by the rapid transition of El Niño warm to cold phases developed four months ahead. An index measuring the ENSO development during January-April is able to capture the inter-annual variability of NCP SAOD during 2000-2011. This indicates a need to integrate the consideration of large-scale periodic climate variability in the design of regional air quality policy.

  15. Dynamical evidence for causality between galactic cosmic rays and interannual variation in global temperature.

    PubMed

    Tsonis, Anastasios A; Deyle, Ethan R; May, Robert M; Sugihara, George; Swanson, Kyle; Verbeten, Joshua D; Wang, Geli

    2015-03-17

    As early as 1959, it was hypothesized that an indirect link between solar activity and climate could be mediated by mechanisms controlling the flux of galactic cosmic rays (CR) [Ney ER (1959) Nature 183:451-452]. Although the connection between CR and climate remains controversial, a significant body of laboratory evidence has emerged at the European Organization for Nuclear Research [Duplissy J, et al. (2010) Atmos Chem Phys 10:1635-1647; Kirkby J, et al. (2011) Nature 476(7361):429-433] and elsewhere [Svensmark H, Pedersen JOP, Marsh ND, Enghoff MB, Uggerhøj UI (2007) Proc R Soc A 463:385-396; Enghoff MB, Pedersen JOP, Uggerhoj UI, Paling SM, Svensmark H (2011) Geophys Res Lett 38:L09805], demonstrating the theoretical mechanism of this link. In this article, we present an analysis based on convergent cross mapping, which uses observational time series data to directly examine the causal link between CR and year-to-year changes in global temperature. Despite a gross correlation, we find no measurable evidence of a causal effect linking CR to the overall 20th-century warming trend. However, on short interannual timescales, we find a significant, although modest, causal effect between CR and short-term, year-to-year variability in global temperature that is consistent with the presence of nonlinearities internal to the system. Thus, although CR do not contribute measurably to the 20th-century global warming trend, they do appear as a nontraditional forcing in the climate system on short interannual timescales. PMID:25733877

  16. Interannual variability in the North Pacific meridional overturning circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Hongwei; Zhang, Qilong; Hou, Yijun; Duan, Yongliang

    2013-05-01

    We analyzed the temporal and spatial variation, and interannual variability of the North Pacific meridional overturning circulation using an empirical orthogonal function method, and calculated mass transport using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation Data from 1958-2008. The meridional streamfunction field in the North Pacific tilts N-S; the Tropical Cell (TC), Subtropical Cell (STC), and Deep Tropical Cell (DTC) may be in phase on an annual time scale; the TC and the STC are out of phase on an interannual time scale, but the interannual variability of the DTC is complex. The TC and STC interannual variability is associated with ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). The TC northward, southward, upward, and downward transports all weaken in El Niños and strengthen in La Niñas. The STC northward and southward transports are out of phase, while the STC northward and downward transports are in phase. Sea-surface water that reaches the middle latitude and is subducted may not completely return to the tropics. The zonal wind anomalies over the central North Pacific, which control Ekman transport, and the east-west slope of the sea level may be major factors causing the TC northward and southward transport interannual variability and the STC northward and southward transports on the interannual time scale. The DTC northward and southward transports decrease during strong El Niños and increase during strong La Niñas. DTC upward and downward transports are not strongly correlated with the Niño-3 index and may not be completely controlled by ENSO.

  17. Seasonal and interannual responses of the vegetation and production of crops in Cordoba Argentina assessed by AVHRR derived vegetation indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seiler, R. A.; Kogan, F.; Wei, Guo; Vinocur, M.

    Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) -based vegetation indices are widely accepted as good indicators for providing vegetation properties and associated changes for large scale geographic regions. Also, their capability to indicate moisture conditions makes them an important data source for monitoring climate variations and droughts. The objective of this study was to test the AVHRR-vegetation conditions indices data set as indicators of the weather variability through the seasonal and interannual responses of the vegetation and the production of crops. Time-series of AVHRR vegetation condition indices during 1981 2003 were used to generate the seasonal and interannual vegetation curves for departments (administrative unites) of the Cordoba province in Argentina. Yield series of corn by departments were analyzed against AVHRR derived indices and corn yield predicting models were developed. Vegetation condition curves were able to differentiate vegetation responses associated with normal/above normal and below normal precipitation during the growing season. Corn yield models based on the vegetation condition indices explained up to 80% of the yield variation of corn, according to departments. Results from the analysis showed that the variability of the indices serves as good proxy for identifying environmental sources of variations mainly climate, and thus to provide insights for further analysis to understand the potential of the regional climate for crop production and the effects of the climate variability on vegetation and on corn yield.

  18. Determination of Arctic sea ice variability modes on interannual timescales via nonhierarchical clustering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fučkar, Neven-Stjepan; Guemas, Virginie; Massonnet, François; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco

    2015-04-01

    Over the modern observational era, the northern hemisphere sea ice concentration, age and thickness have experienced a sharp long-term decline superimposed with strong internal variability. Hence, there is a crucial need to identify robust patterns of Arctic sea ice variability on interannual timescales and disentangle them from the long-term trend in noisy datasets. The principal component analysis (PCA) is a versatile and broadly used method for the study of climate variability. However, the PCA has several limiting aspects because it assumes that all modes of variability have symmetry between positive and negative phases, and suppresses nonlinearities by using a linear covariance matrix. Clustering methods offer an alternative set of dimension reduction tools that are more robust and capable of taking into account possible nonlinear characteristics of a climate field. Cluster analysis aggregates data into groups or clusters based on their distance, to simultaneously minimize the distance between data points in a given cluster and maximize the distance between the centers of the clusters. We extract modes of Arctic interannual sea-ice variability with nonhierarchical K-means cluster analysis and investigate the mechanisms leading to these modes. Our focus is on the sea ice thickness (SIT) as the base variable for clustering because SIT holds most of the climate memory for variability and predictability on interannual timescales. We primarily use global reconstructions of sea ice fields with a state-of-the-art ocean-sea-ice model, but we also verify the robustness of determined clusters in other Arctic sea ice datasets. Applied cluster analysis over the 1958-2013 period shows that the optimal number of detrended SIT clusters is K=3. Determined SIT cluster patterns and their time series of occurrence are rather similar between different seasons and months. Two opposite thermodynamic modes are characterized with prevailing negative or positive SIT anomalies over the

  19. Interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow transport: A revisit based on 30 year expendable bathythermograph data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Qin-Yan; Feng, Ming; Wang, Dongxiao; Wijffels, Susan

    2015-12-01

    Based on 30 year repeated expendable bathythermograph (XBT) deployments between Fremantle, Western Australia, and the Sunda Strait, Indonesia, from 1984 to 2013, interannual variability of geostrophic transport of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and its relationships with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are investigated. The IOD induced coastal Kelvin waves propagate along the Sumatra-Java coast of Indonesia, and ENSO induced coastal Kelvin waves propagate along the northwest coast of Australia, both influencing interannual variations of the ITF transport. The ITF geostrophic transport is stronger during La Niña phase and weaker during El Niño phase, with the Niño3.4 index leading the ITF variability by 7 months. The Indian Ocean wind variability associated with the IOD to a certain extent offset the Pacific ENSO influences on the ITF geostrophic transport during the developing and mature phases of El Niño and La Niña, due to the covarying IOD variability with ENSO. The ITF geostrophic transport experiences a strengthening trend of about 1 Sv every 10 years over the study period, which is mostly due to a response to the strengthening of the trade winds in the Pacific during the climate change hiatus period. Decadal variations of the temperature-salinity relationships need to be considered when estimating the geostrophic transport of the ITF using XBT data.

  20. Interannual differences for sea turtles bycatch in Spanish longliners from Western Mediterranean Sea.

    PubMed

    Báez, José C; Macías, David; García-Barcelona, Salvador; Real, Raimundo

    2014-01-01

    Recent studies showed that regional abundance of loggerhead and leatherback turtles could oscillate interannually according to oceanographic and climatic conditions. The Western Mediterranean is an important fishing area for the Spanish drifting longline fleet, which mainly targets swordfish, bluefin tuna, and albacore. Due to the spatial overlapping in fishing activity and turtle distribution, there is an increasing sea turtle conservation concern. The main goal of this study is to analyse the interannual bycatch of loggerhead and leatherback turtles by the Spanish Mediterranean longline fishery and to test the relationship between the total turtle by-catch of this fishery and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During the 14 years covered in this study, the number of sea turtle bycatches was 3,940 loggerhead turtles and 8 leatherback turtles, 0.499 loggerhead turtles/1000 hooks and 0.001014 leatherback turtles/1000 hooks. In the case of the loggerhead turtle the positive phase of the NAO favours an increase of loggerhead turtles in the Western Mediterranean Sea. However, in the case of leatherback turtle the negative phase of the NAO favours the presence of leatherback turtle. This contraposition could be related to the different ecophysiological response of both species during their migration cycle.

  1. Interannual differences for sea turtles bycatch in Spanish longliners from Western Mediterranean Sea.

    PubMed

    Báez, José C; Macías, David; García-Barcelona, Salvador; Real, Raimundo

    2014-01-01

    Recent studies showed that regional abundance of loggerhead and leatherback turtles could oscillate interannually according to oceanographic and climatic conditions. The Western Mediterranean is an important fishing area for the Spanish drifting longline fleet, which mainly targets swordfish, bluefin tuna, and albacore. Due to the spatial overlapping in fishing activity and turtle distribution, there is an increasing sea turtle conservation concern. The main goal of this study is to analyse the interannual bycatch of loggerhead and leatherback turtles by the Spanish Mediterranean longline fishery and to test the relationship between the total turtle by-catch of this fishery and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During the 14 years covered in this study, the number of sea turtle bycatches was 3,940 loggerhead turtles and 8 leatherback turtles, 0.499 loggerhead turtles/1000 hooks and 0.001014 leatherback turtles/1000 hooks. In the case of the loggerhead turtle the positive phase of the NAO favours an increase of loggerhead turtles in the Western Mediterranean Sea. However, in the case of leatherback turtle the negative phase of the NAO favours the presence of leatherback turtle. This contraposition could be related to the different ecophysiological response of both species during their migration cycle. PMID:24764769

  2. Interannual Differences for Sea Turtles Bycatch in Spanish Longliners from Western Mediterranean Sea

    PubMed Central

    Báez, José C.; García-Barcelona, Salvador

    2014-01-01

    Recent studies showed that regional abundance of loggerhead and leatherback turtles could oscillate interannually according to oceanographic and climatic conditions. The Western Mediterranean is an important fishing area for the Spanish drifting longline fleet, which mainly targets swordfish, bluefin tuna, and albacore. Due to the spatial overlapping in fishing activity and turtle distribution, there is an increasing sea turtle conservation concern. The main goal of this study is to analyse the interannual bycatch of loggerhead and leatherback turtles by the Spanish Mediterranean longline fishery and to test the relationship between the total turtle by-catch of this fishery and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During the 14 years covered in this study, the number of sea turtle bycatches was 3,940 loggerhead turtles and 8 leatherback turtles, 0.499 loggerhead turtles/1000 hooks and 0.001014 leatherback turtles/1000 hooks. In the case of the loggerhead turtle the positive phase of the NAO favours an increase of loggerhead turtles in the Western Mediterranean Sea. However, in the case of leatherback turtle the negative phase of the NAO favours the presence of leatherback turtle. This contraposition could be related to the different ecophysiological response of both species during their migration cycle. PMID:24764769

  3. The relationships between temperature changes and reproductive investment in a Mediterranean goby: Insights for the assessment of climate change effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zucchetta, M.; Cipolato, G.; Pranovi, F.; Antonetti, P.; Torricelli, P.; Franzoi, P.; Malavasi, S.

    2012-04-01

    The relationships between changes in water temperature and the timing and level of reproductive investment were investigated in an estuarine fish, inhabiting the Venice lagoon: the grass goby Zosterisessor ophiocephalus. A time series of the mean monthly values of gonado-somatic index was coupled with thermal profiles of lagoon water temperatures over 14 years, from 1997 to 2010. Results showed that the reproductive investment was positively affected by water temperature changes, both in terms of monthly thermal anomalies and cumulative degree days. A predictive model was also developed to assess the temporal shift of reproductive peaks as a response to inter-annual thermal fluctuations. This model allowed the detection of deviations from the median level, indicating that during warmer years, the reproductive peak tended to occur earlier than during colder years. The model is therefore proposed as a tool to predict anticipated consequences of climate change on fish phenology in transitional waters, regarding recurrent biological phenomena, such as reproduction and recruitment.

  4. Exploring Interannual Sandbar Behavior Along a High-Energy Dissipative Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohn, N.; Ruggiero, P.; Walstra, D.

    2012-12-01

    The Columbia River Littoral Cell (CRLC) in the Pacific Northwest is a modally dissipative coastline characterized by fine-grained sediment and high wave energy. Storms of magnitude are frequent in this region, with significant wave heights exceeding 10 m approximately once per year. Sandbars in the CRLC have been observed to follow the interannual pattern of net offshore migration (NOM) that has been observed at several other locations, with bars typically forming close to shore, migrating seaward, and ultimately degenerating offshore. Including playing a major role in local sand budgets, sandbars also influence circulation patterns and storm impact to the coast. Despite the importance of these geomorphic features to coastal environments much is still unknown concerning the dominant mechanics that drive interannual sandbar behavior. A recent, three-year model hindcast of bar evolution off the coast of the Netherlands (Noordwijk) indicated that bar response is most heavily influenced by two factors: the directionality of waves relative to the coastline and the depth of the bar crest below the water surface (D.J.R. Walstra, A.J.H.M. Reniers, R. Ranasinghe, J.A. Roelcink, and B.G. Ruessink, Coast Eng. 47:190-200, 2012). While other factors such as wave height, wave period, and tidal elevation were recognized as influencing bar morphology, overall they were determined to play a subordinate role in bar behavior. In order to test whether the conclusions from the Noordwijk study are generally valid, the same model (Unibest-TC) and approach will be applied to bathymetric data from the CRLC. Because the CRLC and Noordwijk have widely different physical characteristics (e.g., wave climate, sediment supply, beach slope, tidal range) the CRLC provides a sharply different environment for which to investigate interannual bar behavior. Annual nearshore bathymetric surveys in the CRLC have been completed for over a decade using personal watercraft outfitted with the Coastal

  5. Predictors of Recurrent AKI.

    PubMed

    Siew, Edward D; Parr, Sharidan K; Abdel-Kader, Khaled; Eden, Svetlana K; Peterson, Josh F; Bansal, Nisha; Hung, Adriana M; Fly, James; Speroff, Ted; Ikizler, T Alp; Matheny, Michael E

    2016-04-01

    Recurrent AKI is common among patients after hospitalized AKI and is associated with progressive CKD. In this study, we identified clinical risk factors for recurrent AKI present during index AKI hospitalizations that occurred between 2003 and 2010 using a regional Veterans Administration database in the United States. AKI was defined as a 0.3 mg/dl or 50% increase from a baseline creatinine measure. The primary outcome was hospitalization with recurrent AKI within 12 months of discharge from the index hospitalization. Time to recurrent AKI was examined using Cox regression analysis, and sensitivity analyses were performed using a competing risk approach. Among 11,683 qualifying AKI hospitalizations, 2954 patients (25%) were hospitalized with recurrent AKI within 12 months of discharge. Median time to recurrent AKI within 12 months was 64 (interquartile range 19-167) days. In addition to known demographic and comorbid risk factors for AKI, patients with longer AKI duration and those whose discharge diagnosis at index AKI hospitalization included congestive heart failure (primary diagnosis), decompensated advanced liver disease, cancer with or without chemotherapy, acute coronary syndrome, or volume depletion, were at highest risk for being hospitalized with recurrent AKI. Risk factors identified were similar when a competing risk model for death was applied. In conclusion, several inpatient conditions associated with AKI may increase the risk for recurrent AKI. These findings should facilitate risk stratification, guide appropriate patient referral after AKI, and help generate potential risk reduction strategies. Efforts to identify modifiable factors to prevent recurrent AKI in these patients are warranted.

  6. Inter-annual variability in Alaskan net ecosystem CO2 exchange

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luus, Kristina; Lindaas, Jakob; Commane, Roisin; Euskirchen, Eugenie; Oechel, Walter; Zona, Donatella; Chang, Rachel; Kelly, Richard; Miller, Charles; Wofsy, Steven; Lin, John

    2015-04-01

    The high-latitude biospheric carbon cycle's responses to climate change are predicted to have an important role in determining future atmospheric concentrations of CO2. In response to warming soil and air temperatures, Arctic wetlands have been observed to increase rates of both soil C efflux and vegetation C uptake through photosynthesis. However, insights into the regional-scale consequences of these processes for net C uptake have been limited by the large uncertainties existing in process-based model estimates of Arctic net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE). The Polar Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (PolarVPRM) instead provides data-driven, satellite-based estimates of high-latitude NEE, using a framework which specifically accounts for polar influences on NEE. PolarVPRM calculates NEE as the sum of respiration (R) and gross ecosystem exchange (GEE), where GEE refers to the light-dependent portion of NEE: NEE= -GEE + R. Meteorological inputs for PolarVPRM are provided by the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and land surface inputs are acquired from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Growing season R is calculated from air temperature, and subnivean R is calculated according to soil temperature. GEE is calculated according to shortwave radiation, air temperature, and MODIS-derived estimates of soil moisture and vegetation biomass. Previously, model validation has indicated that PolarVPRM showed reasonably good agreement with eddy covariance observations at nine North American Arctic sites, of which three were used for calibration purposes. For this project, PolarVPRM NEE was calculated year-round across Alaska at a three-hourly temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 1 6°×1 4° (latitude × longitude). The objective of this work was to gain insight into inter-annual variability in Alaskan NEE, R and GEE, and an understanding of which meteorological and land surface drivers account for these observed patterns

  7. Interannual variability in species composition explained as seasonally entrained chaos

    PubMed Central

    Dakos, Vasilis; Benincà, Elisa; van Nes, Egbert H.; Philippart, Catharina J. M.; Scheffer, Marten; Huisman, Jef

    2009-01-01

    The species composition of plankton, insect and annual plant communities may vary markedly from year to year. Such interannual variability is usually thought to be driven by year-to-year variation in weather conditions. Here we examine an alternative explanation. We studied the effects of regular seasonal forcing on a multi-species predator–prey model consisting of phytoplankton and zooplankton species. The model predicts that interannual variability in species composition can easily arise without interannual variability in external conditions. Seasonal forcing increased the probability of chaos in our model communities, but squeezed these irregular species dynamics within the seasonal cycle. As a result, the population dynamics had a peculiar character. Consistent with long-term time series of natural plankton communities, seasonal variation led to a distinct seasonal succession of species, yet the species composition varied from year to year in an irregular fashion. Our results suggest that interannual variability in species composition is an intrinsic property of multi-species communities in seasonal environments. PMID:19474038

  8. Interannual and intra-annual variability of rainfall in Haiti (1905-2005)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moron, Vincent; Frelat, Romain; Jean-Jeune, Pierre Karly; Gaucherel, Cédric

    2014-09-01

    The interannual variability of annual and monthly rainfall in Haiti is examined from a database of 78 rain gauges in 1905-2005. The spatial coherence of annual rainfall is rather low, which is partly due to Haiti's rugged landscape, complex shoreline, and surrounding warm waters (mean sea surface temperatures >27 °C from May to December). The interannual variation of monthly rainfall is mostly shaped by the intensity of the low-level winds across the Caribbean Sea, leading to a drier- (or wetter-) than-average rainy season associated with easterly (or westerly) anomalies, increasing (or decreasing) winds. The varying speed of low-level easterlies across the Caribbean basin may reflect at least four different processes during the year: (1) an anomalous trough/ridge over the western edge of the Azores high from December to February, peaking in January; (2) a zonal pressure gradient between Eastern Pacific and the tropical Northern Atlantic from May/June to September, with a peak in August (i.e. lower-than-average rainfall in Haiti is associated with positive sea level pressure anomalies over the tropical North Atlantic and negative sea level pressure anomalies over the Eastern Pacific); (3) a local ocean-atmosphere coupling between the speed of the Caribbean Low Level Jet and the meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradient across the Caribbean basin (i.e. colder-than-average SST in the southern Caribbean sea is associated with increased easterlies and below-average rainfall in Haiti). This coupling is triggered when the warmest Caribbean waters move northward toward the Gulf of Mexico; (4) in October/November, a drier- (or wetter-) than-usual rainy season is related to an almost closed anticyclonic (or cyclonic) anomaly located ENE of Haiti on the SW edge of the Azores high. This suggests a main control of the interannual variations of rainfall by intensity, track and/or recurrence of tropical depressions traveling northeast of Haiti. During this period, the

  9. Interannual and intra-annual variability of rainfall in Haiti (1905-2005)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moron, Vincent; Frelat, Romain; Jean-Jeune, Pierre Karly; Gaucherel, Cédric

    2015-08-01

    The interannual variability of annual and monthly rainfall in Haiti is examined from a database of 78 rain gauges in 1905-2005. The spatial coherence of annual rainfall is rather low, which is partly due to Haiti's rugged landscape, complex shoreline, and surrounding warm waters (mean sea surface temperatures >27 °C from May to December). The interannual variation of monthly rainfall is mostly shaped by the intensity of the low-level winds across the Caribbean Sea, leading to a drier- (or wetter-) than-average rainy season associated with easterly (or westerly) anomalies, increasing (or decreasing) winds. The varying speed of low-level easterlies across the Caribbean basin may reflect at least four different processes during the year: (1) an anomalous trough/ridge over the western edge of the Azores high from December to February, peaking in January; (2) a zonal pressure gradient between Eastern Pacific and the tropical Northern Atlantic from May/June to September, with a peak in August (i.e. lower-than-average rainfall in Haiti is associated with positive sea level pressure anomalies over the tropical North Atlantic and negative sea level pressure anomalies over the Eastern Pacific); (3) a local ocean-atmosphere coupling between the speed of the Caribbean Low Level Jet and the meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradient across the Caribbean basin (i.e. colder-than-average SST in the southern Caribbean sea is associated with increased easterlies and below-average rainfall in Haiti). This coupling is triggered when the warmest Caribbean waters move northward toward the Gulf of Mexico; (4) in October/November, a drier- (or wetter-) than-usual rainy season is related to an almost closed anticyclonic (or cyclonic) anomaly located ENE of Haiti on the SW edge of the Azores high. This suggests a main control of the interannual variations of rainfall by intensity, track and/or recurrence of tropical depressions traveling northeast of Haiti. During this period, the

  10. On the predictability of the interannual behaviour of the Madden-Julian oscillation and its relationship with El Nino

    SciTech Connect

    Sperber, K.R., LLNL

    1998-03-01

    The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability at intraseasonal timescales. It displays substantial interannual variability in intensity which may have important implications for the predictability of the coupled system. The reasons for this interannual variability are not understood. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the interannual behavior of the MJO is related to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, particularly El Nino, and hence whether it is predictable. The interannual behavior of the MJO has been diagnosed initially in the 40-year NCEP/ NCAR Reanalysis. The results suggest that prior to the mid-1970s the activity of the MJO was consistently lower than during the latter part of the record. This may be related to either inadequacies in the data coverage, particularly over the tropical Indian Ocean prior to the introduction of satellite observations, or to the real effects of a decadal timescale warming in the tropical SSTs. The teleconnection patterns between interannual variations in MJO activity and SST show only a weak, barely significant, influence of El Nino in which the MJO is more active during the cold phase. As well as the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, a 4-member ensemble of 45 year integrations with the Hadley Centre climate model (HadAM2a), forced by observed SSTs for 1949-93, has been used to investigate the relationship between MJO activity and SST. HadAM2a is known to give a reasonable simulation of the MJO and the extended record provided by this ensemble of integrations allows a more robust investigation of the predictability of MJO activity than was possible with the 40-year NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. The results have shown that, for the uncoupled system, with the atmosphere being driven by imposed SSTS, there is no reproducibility for the activity of the MJO from year to year. The interannual behavior of the MJO is not controlled by the phase of El Nino and would appear to be chaotic in

  11. Trace gas variability within the Asian monsoon anticyclone on intraseasonal and interannual timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nützel, Matthias; Dameris, Martin; Fierli, Federico; Stiller, Gabriele; Garny, Hella; Jöckel, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    The Asian monsoon and the associated monsoon anticyclone have the potential of substantially influencing the composition of the UTLS (upper troposphere/lower stratosphere) and hence global climate. Here we study the variability of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone in the UTLS on intraseasonal and interannual timescales using results from long term simulations performed with the CCM EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry). In particular, we focus on specified dynamics simulations (Newtonian relaxation to ERA-Interim data) covering the period 1980-2013, which have been performed within the ESCiMo (Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling) project (Jöckel et al., GMDD, 2015). Our main focus lies on variability of the anticyclone's strength (in terms of potential vorticity, geopotential and circulation) and variability in trace gas signatures (O3, H2O) within the anticyclone. To support our findings, we also include observations from satellites (MIPAS, MLS). Our work is linked to the EU StratoClim campaign in 2016.

  12. Interannual variability of carbon cycle implied by a 2-d atmospheric transport model.

    PubMed

    Can, Li; Xu, Li; Shao, Min; Zhang, Ren-Jian

    2004-01-01

    A 2-dimensional atmospheric transport model is deployed in a simplified CO2 inverse study. Calculated carbon flux distribution for the interval from 1981 to 1997 confirms the existence of a terrestrial carbon sink in mid-high latitude area of North Hemisphere. Strong interannual variability exists in carbon flux patterns, implying a possible link with ENSO and other natural episodes such as Pinatubo volcano eruption in 1991. Mechanism of this possible link was investigated with statistic method. Correlation analysis indicated that in North Hemisphere, climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation, to some extend, could influence the carbon cycle process of land and ocean, thus cause considerable change in carbon flux distribution. In addition, correlation study also demonstrated the possible, important role of Asian terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle. PMID:15559811

  13. Pre-settlement processes of northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra) in relation to interannual variability in the Gulf of Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fedewa, Erin J.; Miller, Jessica A.; Hurst, Thomas P.

    2016-05-01

    Understanding the effects of climate variability on growth dynamics and timing of early life history events in marine fishes can provide insights into survival, recruitment and productivity. We examined interannual variation in indicators of larval growth rates, size at hatch and metamorphosis, and the timing of metamorphosis of northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra) over 5 years in two nurseries at Kodiak Island, Alaska, USA. Variation in early life characteristics was quantified using laboratory-validated otolith structural analysis and related to water temperature and spring bloom dynamics in the Gulf of Alaska. Overall, results indicated that temperature contributed more to interannual variation in northern rock sole growth, size and phenology patterns than phytoplankton dynamics. Size at hatch was positively related to winter-spring spawning temperatures. Larval growth metrics were generally consistent with thermal effects as temperatures above 4 °C appear necessary, but are not sufficient to support rapid growth. Reflecting the cumulative effects of temperature, the timing of metamorphosis was related to both seasonal and interannual variation in temperature with earlier dates of metamorphosis in warmer years. Conversely, fish size at metamorphosis was similar across years, suggesting that the competency to metamorphose is related to attainment of a minimum size. These results demonstrate the important role of temperature in regulating early life history phenology of northern rock sole and suggest that temperature-driven phenological shifts may also influence the time of spawning and hatching.

  14. Sensitivity of CFC-11 uptake to physical initial conditions and interannually varying surface forcing in a global ocean model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Peacock, Synte; Lindsay, Keith; Tsumune, Daisuke

    Sensitivity of the oceanic chlorofluorocarbon CFC-11 uptake to physical initial conditions and surface dynamical forcing (heat and salt fluxes and wind stress) is investigated in a global ocean model used in climate studies. Two different initial conditions are used: a solution following a short integration starting with observed temperature and salinity and zero velocities, and the quasi-equilibrium solution of an independent integration. For surface dynamical forcing, recently developed normal-year and interannually varying (1958-2000) data sets are used. The model CFC-11 global and basin inventories, particularly in the normal-year forcing case, are below the observed mean estimates, but they remain within the observational error bars. Column inventory spatial distributions indicate nontrivial differences due to both initial condition and forcing changes, particularly in the northern North Atlantic and Southern Ocean. These differences are larger between forcing sensitivity experiments than between the initial condition cases. The comparisons along the A16N and SR3 WOCE sections also show differences between cases. However, comparisons with observations do not clearly favor a particular case, and model-observation differences remain much larger than model-model differences for all simulations. The choice of initial condition does not significantly change the CFC-11 distributions. Both because of locally large differences between normal-year and interannually varying simulations and because the dynamical and CFC-11 forcing calendars are synchronized, we favor using the more realistic interannually varying forcing in future simulations, given the availability of the forcing data sets.

  15. Recurrent pregnancy loss.

    PubMed

    Rao, Kamini A; Pillai, Jyothi R

    2006-08-01

    Recurrent abortions are hisheartening to the couple and also to the treating clinicians. Miscarriage is the loss of pregnancy weighing 500 g or less. Recurrent miscarriage or habitual abortion is defined as three or more consective abortions. Important factors involved in recurrent early pregnancy loss are genetic factors, endocrine factors, anatomic factors, immunologic factors, infectious factors and environmental factors. The factors are described in a nutshell in the text. Any severe infection that leads to bacteraemia orviraemia can cause sporadic miscarriage. Congenital uterine abnormalities have been associated most often with second-trimestar pregnancy loss. As regarding management of recurrent pregnancy loss the clinician has limited options. The use of aspiration in low dose (75 mg) and heparin is beneficial in APS positive patients. Multivitamins and folic acid assume importance in thrombophilic disorders. Tender live care with regular antenatal check-ups go a great way in achieving live term pregnancy.

  16. North Atlantic atmospheric and ocean inter-annual variability over the past fifty years - Dominant patterns and decadal shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hauser, Tristan; Demirov, Entcho; Zhu, Jieshun; Yashayaev, Igor

    2015-03-01

    positive over the eastern SPNA. The long term impact of the weather regimes on the regional climate is characterized by their distribution; i.e. the frequency of occurrence and persistence in time of each of them. Four typical distributions of the weather regimes are identified in this study which are associated with four dominant spatial interannual patterns representing the phases of two asymmetrical "modes". The first two patterns have the spatial structures of positive and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The third and fourth patterns, here referred to as G+ and G-, define the opposite phases of a mode, that has a spatial structure defined by three centers found over Florida, south of Greenland and over Scandinavia. The NAO+ interannual patterns are associated with negative anomalies of the surface downward heat flux and ocean heat content over the SPNA. The NAO- and G+ are associated with positive anomalies of heat flux and ocean heat content. In the 1960s the dominant NAO- and G+ interannual patterns favored warmer than normal atmospheric and ocean temperatures over the SPNA. The winters in the late 1980s and early 1990s over the SPNA were colder than normal. This decadal shift in the atmospheric state between 1970s and 1980s was associated with a change in the dominant interannual patterns towards NAO+ and G- in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The recent warming of the SPNA since the mid-1990s was related to dominance of the G+/G- interannual patterns in the distribution of interannual patterns probability membership. Our analysis suggests that this decadal variability was associated with long term shifts in atmospheric behavior over the SPNA that can be described by a change in the 1980s of the distribution of membership probabilities for the interannual patterns. Within the interannual pattern phase space, this change is characterized with a shift from the NAO-/G+/G- subspace in the 1950 and 1960s, towards NAO+/G+/G- since the mid 1980s.

  17. Interannual Variations of Shallow Firn Temperature at Greenland Summit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jun, Li; Wang, W. L.; Zwally, H. J.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Firn-temperature profiles are calculated in a thermal model using continuous surface temperatures derived from Automatic Weather Station (AWS) data and passive microwave data in the Greenland Summit region during the period 1987-1999. The results show that significant interannual variations of mean summer (June to August) and annual temperatures occur in the top 15 m, in addition to the normal seasonal cycle of firn temperature. At 5 m depth, the seasonal cycle is damped to 13% of the surface seasonal amplitude, but even at 15 m about 1% or 0.6 C of the seasonal cycle persists. Both summer and mean annual temperatures decrease from 1987 to 1992, followed by a general increasing trend. Interannual variability is 5 C at the surface, but only is only dampened to 3.2 C at 10 m depth and 0.7 C at 15 m depth. Dampening of the interannual variability with depth is slower than dampening of the seasonal cycle, because of the longer time constant of the interannual variation. The warmer spring and summer temperatures experienced in the top 5 m, due to both the seasonal cycle and interannual variations, affect the rate of firn densification, which is non-linearly dependent on temperature. During the 12 year period 1987-1999, the mean annual surface temperature is -29.2 C, and the mean annual 15 m temperature is -30. 1 C, which is more than 1 C warmer than a 15-m borehole temperature representing the period of about 1959 and warmer than the best-fit temperature history by Alley and Koci back to 1500 A.D..

  18. Inter-annual precipitation changes as quadratic signals in the GRACE time-variable gravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogawa, R.; Chao, B. F.; Heki, K.

    2009-04-01

    The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission has been producing scientific results on mass variations on inter-annual timescales, e.g. melting of ice sheet in Greenland and mountain glaciers in Alaska, Eastern Africa drought, water level increase in Caspian Sea, etc. In these discussions only linear trends and the seasonal components have been analyzed in the monthly GRACE time series, whereas little attention has been paid so far to the existence of the quadratic changes which signify the temporal accelerations. With over 6 years of GRACE data and revisiting the time-variable gravity field of various regions, we find that such acceleration/deceleration terms are quite often significantly different from zero. They include East Africa, near Obi River, Caspian Sea, Black Sea, Central Asia, and southern South America, whereof discussions of linear trends without specifying the epochs are inadequate. Here we investigate geophysical implication of these quadratic terms; in particular gravity changes in land areas reflect, to a large extent, soil moisture variations. Soil moisture is the time integration of water fluxes, i.e. precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff. Here we consider that the linear trend in precipitation is responsible for the quadratic change in gravity, and examine trends of observed precipitation in various regions from CMAP (Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation). Thus, in order to compare linear trend in CMAP and acceleration in GRACE, we calculate month-to-month difference of equivalent water depth at GRACE grid points, and modeled them with seasonal variations and linear trends. We found good agreement between their geographical distributions although amplitudes are smaller in GRACE, meaning the quadratic gravity changes in the GRACE data do reflect inter-annual changes of precipitation fairly faithfully.

  19. Inter-annual Variability of Aboveground Net Primary Productivity in Regenerating Tropical Dry Forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Powers, J. S.; Becknell, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    Globally, there are now more secondary forests regenerating following anthropogenic disturbance than primary forests. However, carbon dynamics in secondary tropical forests in general, and seasonally dry forests in particular, have not been as well studied as primary wet forests. Young, regenerating forests may be more sensitive to climatic variability than older forests because of their dynamic demographic rates. Similarly, seasonally dry tropical forests may be particularly sensitive to changes in precipitation, as tree growth is highly constrained by water availability. We examined how inter-annual variability in precipitation affected above-ground net primary productivity in chronosequences of dry forest in Costa Rica. Our sites included three forest cover types, whose distribution is linked to edaphic variation. Over our 6-yr dataset, annual rainfall varied from 1110 to 3040mm, with a 5-6 month dry season. ANPP ranged from 2.96 to 18.98 Mg ha-1 across sites that have been recovering for 7 to 67 years. Fine litter production dominated ANPP, and increased with forest age but not annual rainfall. By contrast, woody stem growth did not vary among forests that differed in age, but increased as a function of annual rainfall. These results differed by forest type. Lowland oak forests on low fertility soil had the lowest productivity and responses to rainfall, whereas forests on the highest fertility soils showed large increases in woody production with rainfall. Consistent with our expectation, younger forests on the intermediate soil type had higher variability in ANPP than older forests, but this was not significant for forests on the poor or high fertility soils. Our results highlight several important findings: 1) different components of ANPP vary in their responses to inter-annual variation in rainfall, 2) forest responses to climatic variability depend on species composition, which varies consistently with soil type in this landscape.

  20. Interdecadal change of interannual variability and predictability of two types of ENSO using a MME method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeong, H. I.; Ahn, J. B.; Lee, J. Y.; Alessandri, A.; Hendon, H.

    2014-12-01

    A significant interdecadal climate shift of interannual variability and predictability of two types of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely the canonical or eastern Pacific (EP)-type and Modoki or central Pacific (CP) type, are investigated. Using the retrospective forecasts of six-state-of-the-art coupled models and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for December-January-February during the period of 1972-2005 along with corresponding observed and reanalyzed data, we examine the climate regime shift that occurred in the winter of 1988/1989 and how the shift affected interannual variability and predictability of two types of ENSO for the two periods of 1972-1988 (hereafter PRE) and 1989-2005 (hereafter POST). The result first shows substantial interdecadal changes of observed sea surface temperature (SST) in mean state and variability over the western and central Pacific attributable to the significant warming trend in the POST period. In the POST period, the SST variability increased (decreased) significantly over the western (eastern) Pacific. The MME realistically reproduces the observed interdecadal changes with 1- and 4-month forecast lead time. It is found that the CP-type ENSO was more prominent and predictable during the POST than the PRE period while there was no apparent difference in the variability and predictability of the EP-type ENSO between two periods. Note that the second empirical orthogonal function mode of the Pacific SST during the POST period represents the CP-type ENSO but that during the PRE period captures the ENSO transition phase. The MME better predicts the former than the latter. We also investigate distinctive regional impacts associated with the two types of ENSO during the two periods.

  1. Interdecadal change of interannual variability and predictability of two types of ENSO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeong, Hye-In; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Lee, June-Yi; Alessandri, Andrea; Hendon, Harry H.

    2015-02-01

    A significant interdecadal climate shift of interannual variability and predictability of two types of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely the canonical or eastern Pacific (EP)-type and Modoki or central Pacific (CP) type, are investigated. Using the retrospective forecasts of six-state-of-the-art coupled models and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for December-January-February during the period of 1972-2005 along with corresponding observed and reanalyzed data, we examine the climate regime shift that occurred in the winter of 1988/1989 and how the shift affected interannual variability and predictability of two types of ENSO for the two periods of 1972-1988 (hereafter PRE) and 1989-2005 (hereafter POST). The result first shows substantial interdecadal changes of observed sea surface temperature (SST) in mean state and variability over the western and central Pacific attributable to the significant warming trend in the POST period. In the POST period, the SST variability increased (decreased) significantly over the western (eastern) Pacific. The MME realistically reproduces the observed interdecadal changes with 1- and 4-month forecast lead time. It is found that the CP-type ENSO was more prominent and predictable during the POST than the PRE period while there was no apparent difference in the variability and predictability of the EP-type ENSO between two periods. Note that the second empirical orthogonal function mode of the Pacific SST during the POST period represents the CP-type ENSO but that during the PRE period captures the ENSO transition phase. The MME better predicts the former than the latter. We also investigate distinctive regional impacts associated with the two types of ENSO during the two periods.

  2. Interannual variability in evapotranspiration and water yield from a temperate Scots pine forest (Brasschaat, Belgium).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gielen, B.; Neirynck, J.; Verbeeck, H.; Janssens, I. A.

    2009-04-01

    By evaporating more than vegetation of different structure and height, forests play an import role in the water and energy balance of the land surface. Consequently, forests influence rainfall patterns and magnitude at regional and global scale by influencing the low level moisture convergence, and determine the amount of water that yield towards the river basin. This study focuses on the drivers of interannual variability of total stand scale evapotranspiration (AET) and water yield for a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forest. The study site is located 20 km NE of Antwerp, near Brasschaat (Belgium) and consists of an 80-year-old even aged Scots pine stand, which belongs to a larger mixed coniferous/deciduous forest and is part of the ICP-II and Fluxnet/CarboEurope-IP networks since 1997. To calculate the water balance, five different approaches are used, ranging from eddy covariance (EC) and conservative ions measurements over an empirical model (WATBAL) to two ecosystem Carbon/Water process based models (SECRETS and ORCHIDEE). Model results are evaluated with sapflow, troughfall and EC measurements that were available during the study period. Tree transpiration and AET of both process based models fit well to the EC measurements. In contrast, compared to EC measurements, WATBAL tends to overestimate AET for the seasonal course as well as the yearly totals. No clear driver is found variability in the annual total AET. Furthermore, interannual variability in water yield is clearly determined by total precipitation. Future climate scenarios predict drier summer periods and more precipitation during the winter for the north Belgian region. To study the future trends in both AET and water yield, future climate scenarios will be used as model inputs to simulate the water balance. These data will be presented in this paper.

  3. Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Class-Specific Primary Production at a Global Scale

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rousseaux, Cecile Severine; Gregg, Watson W.

    2014-01-01

    We used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of 4 phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. First we assessed the contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production at a global scale for the period 1998-2011. Globally, diatoms were the group that contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production (50, the equivalent of 20 PgC y-1. Coccolithophores and chlorophytes each contributed to 20 (7 PgC y-1 of the total primary production and cyanobacteria represented about 10 (4 PgC y(sub-1) of the total primary production. Primary production by diatoms was highest in high latitude (45) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We then assessed interannual variability of this group-specific primary production over the period 1998-2011. Globally the annual relative contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production varied by maximum 4 (1-2 PgC y-1. We assessed the effects of climate variability on the class-specific primary production using global (i.e. Multivariate El Nio Index, MEI) and regional climate indices (e.g. Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability as indicated by significant correlation (p 0.05) between the MEI and the class-specific primary production from all groups except coccolithophores. In the Atlantic, climate variability as indicated by NAO was significantly correlated to the primary production of 2 out of the 4 groups in the North Central Atlantic (diatomscyanobacteria) and in the North Atlantic (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). We found that climate variability as indicated by SAM had only a limited effect on the class-specific primary production in the Southern Ocean. These results provide a modeling and

  4. Detecting a Terrestrial Biosphere Sink for Carbon Dioxide: Interannual Ecosystem Modeling for the Mid-1980s

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Potter, Christopher S.; Klooster, Steven A.; Brooks, Vanessa; Gore, Warren J. (Technical Monitor)

    1998-01-01

    There is considerable uncertainty as to whether interannual variability in climate and terrestrial ecosystem production is sufficient to explain observed variation in atmospheric carbon content over the past 20-30 years. In this paper, we investigated the response of net CO2 exchange in terrestrial ecosystems to interannual climate variability (1983 to 1988) using global satellite observations as drivers for the NASA-CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) simulation model. This computer model of net ecosystem production (NEP) is calibrated for interannual simulations driven by monthly satellite vegetation index data (NDVI) from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) at 1 degree spatial resolution. Major results from NASA-CASA simulations suggest that from 1985 to 1988, the northern middle-latitude zone (between 30 and 60 degrees N) was the principal region driving progressive annual increases in global net primary production (NPP; i.e., the terrestrial biosphere sink for carbon). The average annual increase in NPP over this predominantly northern forest zone was on the order of +0.4 Pg (10 (exp 15) g) C per year. This increase resulted mainly from notable expansion of the growing season for plant carbon fixation toward the zonal latitude extremes, a pattern uniquely demonstrated in our regional visualization results. A net biosphere source flux of CO2 in 1983-1984, coinciding with an El Nino event, was followed by a major recovery of global NEP in 1985 which lasted through 1987 as a net carbon sink of between 0.4 and 2.6 Avg C per year. Analysis of model controls on NPP and soil heterotrophic CO2 fluxes (Rh) suggests that regional warming in northern forests can enhance ecosystem production significantly. In seasonally dry tropical zones, periodic drought and temperature drying effects may carry over with at least a two-year lag time to adversely impact ecosystem production. These yearly patterns in our model-predicted NEP are consistent in

  5. Interannual Variations and Trends in Global Land Surface Phenology Derived from Enhanced Vegetation Index During 1982-2010

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhang, Xiaoyang; Tan, Bin; Yu, Yunyue

    2014-01-01

    Land swiace phenology is widely retrieved from satellite observations at regional and global scales, and its long-term record has been demonstmted to be a valuable tool for reconstructing past climate variations, monitoring the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems in response to climate impacts, and predicting biological responses to future climate scenarios. This srudy detected global land surface phenology from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 1982 to 2010. Based on daily enhanced vegetation index at a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees, we simulated the seasonal vegetative trajectory for each individual pixel using piecewise logistic models, which was then used to detect the onset of greenness increase (OGI) and the length of vegetation growing season (GSL). Further, both overall interannual variations and pixel-based trends were examIned across Koeppen's climate regions for the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010, respectively. The results show that OGI and OSL varied considerably during 1982-2010 across the globe. Generally, the interarmual variation could be more than a month in precipitation-controlled tropical and dry climates while it was mainly less than 15 days in temperature-controlled temperate, cold, and polar climates. OGI, overall, shifted early, and GSL was prolonged from 1982 to 2010 in most climate regions in North America and Asia while the consistently significant trends only occurred in cold climate and polar climate in North America. The overall trends in Europe were generally insignificant. Over South America, late OGI was consistent (particularly from 1982 to 1999) while either positive or negative OSL trends in a climate region were mostly reversed between the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010. In the Northern Hemisphere of Africa, OGI trends were mostly insignificant, but prolonged GSL was evident over individual climate regions during the last 3

  6. Inter-Annual Variability of Atmospheric Water Vapor as seen from the TOVS Pathfinder Path a Data Set

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mehta, Amita; Susskind, Joel

    1999-01-01

    The atmospheric water vapor is a major greenhouse gas and plays a critical role in determining energy and water cycle in the climate system. A new, global, long-term (1985-98) water vapor data set derived from the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) Path A system will be introduced in the presentation. An assessment of the accuracy of the TOVS Path A water vapor data will he presented. The focus of this oral presentation will be on the inter-annual variability of the water vapor distribution in the atmosphere. Also, water vapor distribution observed during 1997/98 ENSO event will be shown.

  7. Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Concentration and Community in the Pacific Ocean

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rousseaux, C. S.; Gregg, W. W.

    2011-01-01

    Climate events such as El Nino have been shown to have an effect on the biology of our ocean. Because of the lack of data, we still have very little knowledge about the spatial and temporal effect these climate events may have on biological marine systems. In this study, we used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) to assess the interannual variability in phytoplankton community in the Pacific Ocean between 1998 and 2005. In the North Central and Equatorial Pacific Ocean, changes in the Multivariate El Nino Index were associated with changes in phytoplankton composition. The model identified an increase in diatoms of approx.33 % in the equatorial Pacific in 1999 during a La Nina event. This increase in diatoms coincided with a decrease of approx.11 % in cyanobacteria concentration. The inverse relationship between cyanobacteria and diatoms concentration was significant (p<0.05) throughout the period of study. The use of a numerical model allows us to assess the impact climate variability has on key phytoplankton groups known to lead to contrasting food chain at a spatial and temporal resolution unachievable when relying solely on in-situ observations.

  8. Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Class-specific Primary Production at a Global Scale

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rousseaux, Cecile; Gregg, Watson

    2014-01-01

    Phytoplankton is responsible for over half of the net primary production on earth. The knowledge on the contribution of various phytoplankton groups to the total primary production is still poorly understood. Data from satellite observations suggest that for upwelling regions, photosynthetic rates by microplankton is higher than that of nanoplankton but that when the spatial extent is considered, the production by nanoplankton is comparable or even larger than microplankton. Here, we used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of 4 phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. Globally, diatoms were the group that contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production (approx. 50%) followed by coccolithophores and chlorophytes. Primary production by diatoms was highest in high latitude (>45 deg) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We assessed the effects of climate variability on the class-specific primary production using global (i.e. Multivariate El Nino Index, MEI) and 'regional' climate indices (e.g. Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability. These results provide a modeling and data assimilation perspective to phytoplankton partitioning of primary production and contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of the carbon cycle in the oceans at a global scale.

  9. Inter-annual dynamics of abyssal polychaete communities in the North East Pacific and North East Atlantic—A family-level study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laguionie-Marchais, C.; Billett, D. S. M.; Paterson, G. L. D.; Ruhl, H. A.; Soto, E. H.; Smith, K. L., Jr.; Thatje, S.

    2013-05-01

    Characterising how deep-sea communities change on contemporary time-scales and understanding underlying ecosystem processes has become important under changing climate and the rise in the exploitation of deep-sea resources. However, little is known about these dynamics and processes. Long-term observations from which inter-annual variations can be detected are scarce in the deep sea. This study examines inter-annual changes in density, family richness and evenness, family and functional group rank abundance distributions of infaunal polychaetes at two abyssal stations in the North East Pacific (Station M, 1991 to 2005) and in the North East Atlantic (Porcupine Abyssal Plain, 1991 to 1999). The two long-term data sets were used to investigate not only if polychaete community structure and composition varied at inter-annual scales in terms of diversity and rank abundance distributions but also if any changes were related to previous observations in megafauna and environmental factors at each locality. The polychaete community structure at each locality was analysed using univariate statistics as well as multivariate ordination techniques based on Bray-Curtis similarity of the yearly family density. Sub-surface deposit feeders, such as Paraonidae, dominated the North East Pacific, whereas surface deposit feeders, such as Cirratulidae, dominated the North East Atlantic. Both stations showed inter-annual variations in density, family evenness and rank abundance distributions. The greatest changes occurred in 1998 in both time series when polychaete densities peaked, and switches in the rank abundance of the most abundant families and functional groups took place. Inter-annual variations in the polychaete community were correlated with a limited number of holothurian species changes, but no correlation was found with particulate organic matter flux or climate indices. Ecological and environmental factors behind the family-level changes remain elusive. Overall, changes in

  10. Seasonality of sea ice controls interannual variability of summertime ΩA at the ice shelf in the Eastern Weddell Sea - an ocean acidification sensitivity study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weeber, A.; Swart, S.; Monteiro, P. M. S.

    2015-01-01

    Increasing anthropogenic CO2 is decreasing surface water aragonite saturation state (ΩA), a growing concern for calcifying Euthecosome pteropods and its wider impact on Antarctic ecosystems. However, our understanding of the seasonal cycle and interannual variability of this vulnerable ecosystem remains limited. This study examines surface water ΩA from four consecutive summers in the Eastern Weddell Gyre (EWG) ice shelf region, and investigates the drivers and the role played by the seasonal cycle in the interannual variability of ΩA. Interannual variability in the seasonal phasing and the rate of summer sea ice thaw was found to be the primary factor explaining interannual variability in surface water ΩA. In "optimal" summers when summer sea ice thaw began in late November/early December (2008/2009 and 2010/2011), the summertime increase in ΩA was found to be 1.02, approximately double that from summers when sea ice thaw was delayed to late December (2009/2010 and 2011/2012). We propose that the two critical climate (physical-biogeochemical) sensitivities for ΩA are the timing and the rate of sea ice thaw, which has a direct impact on the mixed layer and the resulting onset and persistence of phytoplankton blooms. The strength of summertime carbonate saturation depends on seasonal changes of sea ice, stratification and primary production. The sensitivity of surface water biogeochemistry in this region to interannual changes in mixed layer - sea ice processes, suggests that future trends in climate and the seasonal cycle of sea ice, combined with rapidly increasing anthropogenic CO2 will likely be a concern for the Antarctic ice shelf ecosystem within the next few decades. If in the future, primary production is reduced and CO2 increased, our results suggest that in the EWG summertime surface water aragonite undersaturation will emerge by the middle of this century.

  11. Effect of inter-annual variability in pasture growth and irrigation response on farm productivity and profitability based on biophysical and farm systems modelling.

    PubMed

    Vogeler, Iris; Mackay, Alec; Vibart, Ronaldo; Rendel, John; Beautrais, Josef; Dennis, Samuel

    2016-09-15

    Farm system and nutrient budget models are increasingly being used in analysis to inform on farm decision making and evaluate land use policy options at regional scales. These analyses are generally based on the use of average annual pasture yields. In New Zealand (NZ), like in many countries, there is considerable inter-annual variation in pasture growth rates, due to climate. In this study a modelling approach was used to (i) include inter-annual variability as an integral part of the analysis and (ii) test the approach in an economic analysis of irrigation in a case study within the Hawkes Bay Region of New Zealand. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was used to generate pasture dry matter yields (DMY) for 20 different years and under both dryland and irrigation. The generated DMY were linked to outputs from farm-scale modelling for both Sheep and Beef Systems (Farmaxx Pro) and Dairy Systems (Farmax® Dairy Pro) to calculate farm production over 20 different years. Variation in DMY and associated livestock production due to inter-annual variation in climate was large, with a coefficient of variations up to 20%. Irrigation decreased this inter-annual variation. On average irrigation, with unlimited available water, increased income by $831 to 1195/ha, but when irrigation was limited to 250mm/ha/year income only increased by $525 to 883/ha. Using pasture responses in individual years to capturing the inter-annual variation, rather than the pasture response averaged over 20years resulted in lower financial benefits. In the case study income from irrigation based on an average year were 10 to >20% higher compared with those obtained from individual years.

  12. Recurrent Fever in Children

    PubMed Central

    Torreggiani, Sofia; Filocamo, Giovanni; Esposito, Susanna

    2016-01-01

    Children presenting with recurrent fever may represent a diagnostic challenge. After excluding the most common etiologies, which include the consecutive occurrence of independent uncomplicated infections, a wide range of possible causes are considered. This article summarizes infectious and noninfectious causes of recurrent fever in pediatric patients. We highlight that, when investigating recurrent fever, it is important to consider age at onset, family history, duration of febrile episodes, length of interval between episodes, associated symptoms and response to treatment. Additionally, information regarding travel history and exposure to animals is helpful, especially with regard to infections. With the exclusion of repeated independent uncomplicated infections, many infective causes of recurrent fever are relatively rare in Western countries; therefore, clinicians should be attuned to suggestive case history data. It is important to rule out the possibility of an infectious process or a malignancy, in particular, if steroid therapy is being considered. After excluding an infectious or neoplastic etiology, immune-mediated and autoinflammatory diseases should be taken into consideration. Together with case history data, a careful physical exam during and between febrile episodes may give useful clues and guide laboratory investigations. However, despite a thorough evaluation, a recurrent fever may remain unexplained. A watchful follow-up is thus mandatory because new signs and symptoms may appear over time. PMID:27023528

  13. The climate sensitivity of food security in Mali - a historical perspective on availability and access dimensions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giannini, A.; Krishnamurthy, P. K.; Cousin, R.; Choularton, R. J.

    2011-12-01

    We present results based on an analysis of a 2005 livelihood survey of ~2000 rural households in ~200 villages scattered across Mali, a sparsely populated, large land-locked country in West Africa, to elucidate the role of climate variability and change in shaping availability and access dimensions of food security. The Comprehensive Food Security Vulnerability Analysis is a recurrent survey carried out by the World Food Programme and in-country partners to map out nutritional and socio-economic status during normal (~food secure) conditions in the hope of understanding underlying cause(s) and prevent the next food security crisis. We set the spatial characterization of food security that emerges from the CFSVA against the background of a varying climate, on intra-seasonal, interannual and multi-decadal time scales: through elucidation of the influence of climate on agricultural production we arrive at an interpretation of structural and conjunctural events affecting food security. We conclude with a discussion of possible interventions to reduce vulnerability.

  14. Interannual vs decadal SST forced responses of the West African monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belen

    2010-05-01

    One of the strongest interdecadal signals on the planet has been observed in the Sahelian rainfall during the second half of the XXth century, from wet conditions in the 50's and 60's to drier conditions after the 70's. Parallel to this, several decadal signals have experienced a change from the 70's, and also the influence of the global warming has increased from this decade. From a global perspective the West African rainfall variability is highly modulated by SST forced signals. Many works have pointed out to the Atlantic and Pacific equatorial modes influence on interannual timescales; and to the AMO and the Pacific and Indian Ocean at multidecadal timescales. In the AMMA-EU context the modulation of the interannual modes by the decadal variability together with the influence of the GW has been studied by analysing the interannual modes of variability before and after the 70's. The results indicate the presence of different interannual telecconections between these two periods and, hence, of different anomalous rainfall responses. The importance of the background state modulated by multidecadal variability in the interannual modes is stated in this work. Also, an interesting discussion appears if we wonder whether or not the background state is affected, in turn, by anthropogenic climate change. Recent observational and GCM studies have shown, following the results of Polo et al. (2008), how the Atlantic and Pacific Niños present a dynamical link during the last decades of the XX century (Rodriguez-Fonseca et al., 2009). In this way, the positive (negative) phase of the summer Pacific Niño signal has been found to be connected with a negative (positive) phase of the Equatorial Atlantic mode (EM or Atlantic Niño, Polo et al., 2008); a pattern which leads the summer Atlantic variability. The determinant impact of this connection on the WA monsoon has been addressed by defining a global summer tropical mode accounting for more than the 60% of the rainfall

  15. Factors controlling the interannual variations of MJO intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Li; Li, Tim; Liu, Jia; Peng, Melinda

    2016-06-01

    The interannual variations of intensity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter are investigated by using the observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and the reanalysis data of ECMWF and NCEP. The standard deviation of 20-80-day filtered OLR anomaly is used to measure the MJO intensity. The dominant spatial structure of the interannual variability is revealed by an EOF analysis of the MJO intensity field. It is found that the leading mode is associated with eastern Pacific type ENSO, whereas the second mode is related to central Pacific type ENSO. A simple atmospheric model is used to investigate the relative roles of background moisture and wind changes in affecting the overall strength of MJO. The numerical experiments indicate that the background moisture effect is dominant while the background wind change has a minor effect.

  16. Interannual variability versus seasonal variability in the tropical Atlantic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Picaut, J.; Servain, J.; Seva, M.; Busalacchi, A. J.

    1984-01-01

    Monthly fields of sea surface temperature and wind stress for the tropical Atlantic are constructed for January 1964 to December 1979. Inside the Gulf of Guinea the amplitude of the seasonal variability of SST ranges between 2.5 and 4 times greater than the interannual variability. In the remainder of the equatorial Atlantic this measure is less than 2. Standard deviations of wind stress anomalies indicate that, except near the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the magnitude of interannual fluctuations is greater than that of seasonal ones. The joint analyses of these SST and wind stress fields indicate the largest positive SST anomaly in the Gulf of Guinea (July, 1968) was immediately preceded by the only reversal of the trade winds west along the equator.

  17. [Treatment of recurrent furunculosis].

    PubMed

    Engelhard, Esther A N; Spanjaard, Lodewijk; Stijnis, C Kees

    2013-01-01

    The management of recurrent furunculosis is difficult, and often disappointing. We present the case of a 23-year-old female patient suffering from recurrent furunculosis. The furunculosis persisted after treatment with mupirocin nasal ointment, chlorhexidine soap and instructions for washing clothes, towels and bed sheets for a period of 7 days. Treatment with low-dose clindamycin for three months ultimately proved successful. We propose a structural approach for recurrent furunculosis in which extensive history-taking is followed by appropriate tests. Before prescribing an oral antibiotic (preferably low-dose clindamycin or a macrolide for 3 months), the patient should use an antimicrobial nasal ointment and soap and follow hygienic instructions as mentioned above. Members of the household who also have signs of the infection should be treated. Hygienic education is an essential component of treatment. We believe that this approach will lead to a treatment that is more effective and efficient.

  18. Recurrent wheezing in children

    PubMed Central

    Piazza, Michele; Piacentini, Giorgio

    2016-01-01

    Recurrent wheezing have a significant morbidity and it’s estimated that about one third of school-age children manifest the symptom during the first 5 years of life. Proper identification of children at risk of developing asthma at school age may predict long-term outcomes and improve treatment and preventive approach, but the possibility to identify these children at preschool age remains limited. For many years authors focused their studies to identify early children with recurrent wheezing at risk to develop asthma at school age. Different phenotypes have been proposed for a more precise characterization and a personalized plan of treatment. The main criticism concerns the inability to define stable phenotypes with the risk of overestimating or underestimating the characteristics of symptoms in these children. The aim of this review is to report the recent developments on the diagnosis and treatment of recurrent paediatric wheezing. PMID:26835404

  19. [Treatment of recurrent furunculosis].

    PubMed

    Engelhard, Esther A N; Spanjaard, Lodewijk; Stijnis, C Kees

    2013-01-01

    The management of recurrent furunculosis is difficult, and often disappointing. We present the case of a 23-year-old female patient suffering from recurrent furunculosis. The furunculosis persisted after treatment with mupirocin nasal ointment, chlorhexidine soap and instructions for washing clothes, towels and bed sheets for a period of 7 days. Treatment with low-dose clindamycin for three months ultimately proved successful. We propose a structural approach for recurrent furunculosis in which extensive history-taking is followed by appropriate tests. Before prescribing an oral antibiotic (preferably low-dose clindamycin or a macrolide for 3 months), the patient should use an antimicrobial nasal ointment and soap and follow hygienic instructions as mentioned above. Members of the household who also have signs of the infection should be treated. Hygienic education is an essential component of treatment. We believe that this approach will lead to a treatment that is more effective and efficient. PMID:23369819

  20. Recurrent pregnancy loss.

    PubMed

    Hatasaka, H H; Varner, M W

    1994-12-01

    Recurrent pregnancy loss is a frustrating clinical dilemma for both patients and physicians because, in most cases, causes are nebulous and few treatments with proven benefit can be offered. Involved, expensive tests have frequently been proposed and their use has often filtered into clinical practice before their utility has been firmly demonstrated. Proposed causes of recurrent pregnancy loss include genetic and environmental etiologies, infectious agents, maternal congenital and acquired anatomic abnormalities, and immunologic and endocrinologic dysfunction. Appropriate management relies upon a realistic understanding of the often substantial limitations of currently available therapies.

  1. Tackling a Recurrent Pinealoblastoma

    PubMed Central

    Palled, Siddanna; Kalavagunta, Sruthi; Beerappa Gowda, Jaipal; Umesh, Kavita; Aal, Mahalaxmi; Abdul Razack, Tanvir pasha Chitraduraga; Gowda, Veerabhadre; Viswanath, Lokesh

    2014-01-01

    Pineoblastomas are rare, malignant, pineal region lesions that account for <0.1% of all intracranial tumors and can metastasize along the neuroaxis. Pineoblastomas are more common in children than in adults and adults account for <10% of patients. The management of pinealoblastoma is multimodality approach, surgery followed with radiation and chemotherapy. In view of aggressive nature few centres use high dose chemotherapy with autologus stem cell transplant in newly diagnosed cases but in recurrent setting the literature is very sparse. The present case represents the management of pinealoblastoma in the recurrent setting with reirradiation and adjuvant carmustine chemotherapy wherein the management guidelines are not definitive. PMID:25210636

  2. Recurrent Aphthous Stomatitis

    PubMed Central

    Akintoye, Sunday O.; Greenberg, Martin S.

    2014-01-01

    Recurrent Aphthous Stomatitis (RAS) is the most common ulcerative disease affecting the oral mucosa. It occurs mostly in healthy individuals and has atypical clinical presentation in immunocompromised individuals. The etiology of RAS is still unknown, but several local, systemic, immunologic, genetic, allergic, nutritional, and microbial factors, as well as immunosuppressive drugs, have been proposed as causative agents. Clinical management of RAS is based on severity of symptoms, frequency, size and number of lesions using topical and systemic therapies. The goals of therapy are to decrease pain and ulcer size, promote healing and decrease frequency of recurrence. PMID:24655523

  3. Modeling interannual variability in the Martian seasonal CO2 cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wood, S. E.; Paige, D. A.

    1992-01-01

    One aspect of the seasonal pressure variations measured at the Viking Lander sites is their nearly perfect interannual repeatability. This presents a problem because it implies that the behavior of the seasonal polar caps should be highly repeatable from year to year as well. There are a number of observations and theories suggesting that the presence of dust and water ice clouds in the Martian atmosphere should have significant direct and indirect effects on the rates of CO2 condensation and sublimation in the north and south polar regions. These effects include (1) reduced rates of CO2 frost condensation during polar night seasons due to the radiative effects of dust and water ice clouds and associated CO2 clouds or elevated atmospheric temperatures and (2) reduced or elevated rates of frost sublimation due to the radiative effects of atmospheric dust or to changes in frost emissivities and albedos due to contamination by water ice and dust. The Viking Landing pressure observations are examined to determine the range and character of the interannual variations present. Then a diurnal and seasonal thermal model is used to examine the effects of interannual variations in the polar heat balance on seasonal pressure variations.

  4. Interannual variation of East Asian Winter Monsoon and ENSO

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Yi; Sperber, Kenneth R.; Boyle, James S.

    1996-12-01

    This paper examines the interannual variation of the East Asian winter monsoon and its relationship with EJSO based on the 1979-1995 NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Two stratifications of cold surges are used. The first one, described as the conventional cold surges, indicates that the surge frequency reaches a urn one year after El Nino events. The second one, originated from the same region as the first, is defined as the maximum wind events near the South China Sea. The variation of this stratification of surges is found to be in good agreement with the South Oscillation Index (SOI). Low SOI (high SOI) events coincide with years of low (high) surge frequency. The interannual variation of averaged meridional wind near the South China Sea and western Pacific is dominated by the South China Sea cold surges, and is also well correlated (R--O.82) with the SOI. Strong wind seasons are associated with La Nina and high SOI events; likewise, weak wind years are linked with El Nino and low SOI cases. This pattern is restricted north of the equator within the region of (OON-20 N, 11OOE-1300E), and is confined to the near surface layer. The surface Siberian high, 500 hPa trough and 200 hPa jetstream, all representing the large-scale monsoon flow, are found to be weaker than normal during El Nino years. In particular, the interannual variation of the Siberian high is in general agreement with the SOL.

  5. Interannual variability of snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains, United States: examples from two alpine watersheds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jepsen, Steven M.; Molotch, Noah P.; Williams, Mark W.; Rittger, Karl E.; Sickman, James O.

    2012-01-01

    The distribution of snow and the energy flux components of snowmelt are intrinsic characteristics of the alpine water cycle controlling the location of source waters and the effect of climate on streamflow. Interannual variability of these characteristics is relevant to the effect of climate change on alpine hydrology. Our objective is to characterize the interannual variability in the spatial distribution of snow and energy fluxes of snowmelt in watersheds of a maritime setting, Tokopah Basin (TOK) in California's southern Sierra Nevada, and a continental setting, Green Lake 4 Valley (GLV4) in Colorado's Front Range, using a 12 year database (1996–2007) of hydrometeorological observations and satellite-derived snow cover. Snowpacks observed in GLV4 exhibit substantially greater spatial variability than in TOK (0.75 versus 0.28 spatial coefficient of variation). In addition, modeling results indicate that the net turbulent energy flux contribution to snowmelt in GLV4 is, on average, 3 times greater in magnitude (mean 29% versus 10%) and interannual variability (standard deviation 17% versus 6%) than in TOK. These energy flux values exhibit strong seasonality, increasing as the melt season progresses to times later in the year (R2 = 0.54–0.77). This seasonality of energy flux appears to be associated with snowmelt rates that generally increase with onset date of melt (0.02 cm d-2). This seasonality in snowmelt rate, coupled to differences in hydrogeology, may account for the observed differences in correspondence between the timing of snowmelt and timing of streamflow in these watersheds.

  6. Interannual variability of snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains, United States: Examples from two alpine watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jepsen, Steven M.; Molotch, Noah P.; Williams, Mark W.; Rittger, Karl E.; Sickman, James O.

    2012-02-01

    The distribution of snow and the energy flux components of snowmelt are intrinsic characteristics of the alpine water cycle controlling the location of source waters and the effect of climate on streamflow. Interannual variability of these characteristics is relevant to the effect of climate change on alpine hydrology. Our objective is to characterize the interannual variability in the spatial distribution of snow and energy fluxes of snowmelt in watersheds of a maritime setting, Tokopah Basin (TOK) in California's southern Sierra Nevada, and a continental setting, Green Lake 4 Valley (GLV4) in Colorado's Front Range, using a 12 year database (1996-2007) of hydrometeorological observations and satellite-derived snow cover. Snowpacks observed in GLV4 exhibit substantially greater spatial variability than in TOK (0.75 versus 0.28 spatial coefficient of variation). In addition, modeling results indicate that the net turbulent energy flux contribution to snowmelt in GLV4 is, on average, 3 times greater in magnitude (mean 29% versus 10%) and interannual variability (standard deviation 17% versus 6%) than in TOK. These energy flux values exhibit strong seasonality, increasing as the melt season progresses to times later in the year (R2 = 0.54-0.77). This seasonality of energy flux appears to be associated with snowmelt rates that generally increase with onset date of melt (0.02 cm d-2). This seasonality in snowmelt rate, coupled to differences in hydrogeology, may account for the observed differences in correspondence between the timing of snowmelt and timing of streamflow in these watersheds.

  7. Modeling Inter-annual Variability of Seasonal Evaporation and Storage Change Based on the Extended Budyko Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, X.; Alimohammadi, N.; Wang, D.

    2013-12-01

    Long-term climate is the first order control on mean annual water balance, and vegetation and the interactions between climate seasonality and soil water storage change have also been found to play important roles. The purpose of this paper is to extend the Budyko hypothesis to the seasonal scale and to develop a model for inter-annual variability of seasonal evaporation and storage change. A seasonal aridity index is defined as the ratio of potential evaporation to effective precipitation, where effective precipitation is the difference between rainfall and storage change. Correspondingly, evaporation ratio is defined as the ratio of evaporation to effective precipitation. A modified Turc-Pike equation with a horizontal shift is proposed to model inter-annual variability of seasonal evaporation ratio as a function of seasonal aridity index, which includes rainfall seasonality and soil water change. The performance of the seasonal water balance model is evaluated for 277 watersheds in the United States. 99% of wet seasons and 90% of dry seasons have Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients larger than 0.5. The developed seasonal model can be applied for constructing long-term evaporation and storage change data when rainfall, potential evaporation, and runoff observations are available. On the other hand, vegetation affects seasonal water balance by controlling both evaporation and soil moisture dynamics. The correlation between NDVI and evaporation is strong particularly in wet seasons. However, the correlation between NDVI and the seasonal model parameters is only strong in dry seasons.

  8. Recurrent infective endocarditis.

    PubMed Central

    Lossos, I. S.; Oren, R.

    1993-01-01

    Infective endocarditis is a serious disease associated with high mortality. Patients surviving recurrent bouts of infective endocarditis are reported infrequently. We report on a non-drug abuser patient who experienced seven episodes of infective endocarditis--the largest number reported to our knowledge in a single non-drug abuser patient. PMID:8290417

  9. Lung Cancer Indicators Recurrence

    Cancer.gov

    This study describes prognostic factors for lung cancer spread and recurrence, as well as subsequent risk of death from the disease. The investigators observed that regardless of cancer stage, grade, or type of lung cancer, patients in the study were more

  10. On Solving Linear Recurrences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dobbs, David E.

    2013-01-01

    A direct method is given for solving first-order linear recurrences with constant coefficients. The limiting value of that solution is studied as "n to infinity." This classroom note could serve as enrichment material for the typical introductory course on discrete mathematics that follows a calculus course.

  11. Recurrent Corneal Erosion

    MedlinePlus

    ... to apply a tight patch that restricts eye movement at night and upon waking so there is less likelihood of recurrence. If these rather simple procedures are not successful, the eye care professional may re-scrape the area to create a more irregular abrasion followed by ...

  12. Distinguishing interannual variations of the northern and southern components of the East Asian winter monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Zhang; Wu, Renguang; Chen, Wen

    2016-04-01

    The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) related climate anomalies have shown large year-to-year variations in both the intensity and the meridional extent. The present study distinguishes the interannual variations of the low-latitude and mid-high-latitude components of the EAWM to gain a better understanding of the characteristics and factors of the EAWM variability. Through composite analysis based on two indices representing the northern and southern components of the EAWM variability, the present study clearly reveals features unique to the northern and southern components. The northern component is associated with changes in the mid-high-latitude circulation systems, including the Siberian high, the Aleutian low, the East Asian trough, and the East Asian westerly jet stream, whereas the southern component is closely related to circulation changes over the global tropics, the North Atlantic, and the North America. A strong northern component is accompanied by positive, negative, and positive surface temperature anomalies in the Indochina Peninsula, mid-latitude Asia, and northeast Russia. A strong southern component features lower temperature over tropics and higher temperature over mid-high-latitude Asia. On the interannual time scale, the northern component is significantly associated with both western and eastern autumn Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies, while the southern component is closely related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation do not have an obvious influence on both two components. The processes connecting autumn Arctic SIC anomalies to winter Asian circulation and temperature anomalies include anomalous pressure pattern around the Arctic through thermodynamic effect of Arctic SIC anomalies in autumn and downstream extension of circulation anomalies to Asia via wave activity propagation in winter.

  13. Interannual Variations in Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Humidity: Understanding Tropical Convective and Dynamical Processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Fitzjarrald, Dan E.; Miller, Timothy L.

    2005-01-01

    Uncertainty remains as to what extent variability in mid to upper tropospheric moisture, especially over the tropics, behaves as constant relative humidity during interannual climate variations associated with ENSO. Systematic variations in HIRS 6.7 micron and MLS 205 GHz suggest that dry subtropical regions evolving during warm SST events depress relative humidity, but the interpretation of these events is still uncertain. Additional specific concerns have to do with regional signatures of convective processes: How does the origin of dry air in the eastern subtropical N. Pacific differ in ENSO warm versus cold years? The dynamics of Rossby wave forcing by convective heating, subtropical jet stream dynamics, and dynamics driven subsidence all come into play here. How variations in precipitating ice hydrometeors from tropical anvils relate to variations in UTH is also a subject of debate? Do variations in precipitating ice, cloud cover and water vapor behavior show any support for the Iris-hypothesis mechanism? Here we examine historical records of SSM/T-2 data to gain a better physical understanding of the effects of deep convective moisture sources and dynamically-induced vertical circulations on UTH. These high frequency microwave measurements (183.3 GHz) take advantage of far less sensitivity to cloud hydrometeors than the 6.7 micron data to yield a record of upper tropospheric relative humidity. Furthermore, signatures of precipitating ice from these channels facilitate comparisons to TRMM hydrometeors detected by radar. In analyzing these observations, we isolate water vapor and temperature change components that affect brightness temperatures and the inferred relative humidity. Trajectory modeling is also used to understand interannual humidity anomalies in terms of outflow fbm convective regions and history of diabatically-driven sinking which modifies relative humidity.

  14. Interannual, seasonal and diurnal Mars surface environmental cycles observed from Viking to Curiosity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinez, German; Vicente-Retortillo, Álvaro; Kemppinen, Osku; Fischer, Erik; Fairen, Alberto G.; Guzewich, Scott David; Haberle, Robert; Lemmon, Mark T.; Newman, Claire E.; Renno, Nilton O.; Richardson, Mark I.; Smith, Michael D.; De la Torre, Manuel; Vasavada, Ashwin R.

    2016-10-01

    We analyze in-situ environmental data from the Viking landers to the Curiosity rover to estimate atmospheric pressure, near-surface air and ground temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and dust opacity with the highest confidence possible. We study the interannual, seasonal and diurnal variability of these quantities at the various landing sites over a span of more than twenty Martian years to characterize the climate on Mars and its variability. Additionally, we characterize the radiative environment at the various landing sites by estimating the daily UV irradiation (also called insolation and defined as the total amount of solar UV energy received on flat surface during one sol) and by analyzing its interannual and seasonal variability.In this study we use measurements conducted by the Viking Meteorology Instrument System (VMIS) and Viking lander camera onboard the Viking landers (VL); the Atmospheric Structure Instrument/Meteorology (ASIMET) package and the Imager for Mars Pathfinder (IMP) onboard the Mars Pathfinder (MPF) lander; the Miniature Thermal Emission Spectrometer (Mini-TES) and Pancam instruments onboard the Mars Exploration Rovers (MER); the Meteorological Station (MET), Thermal Electrical Conductivity Probe (TECP) and Phoenix Surface Stereo Imager (SSI) onboard the Phoenix (PHX) lander; and the Rover Environmental Monitoring Station (REMS) and Mastcam instrument onboard the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover.A thorough analysis of in-situ environmental data from past and present missions is important to aid in the selection of the Mars 2020 landing site. We plan to extend our analysis of Mars surface environmental cycles by using upcoming data from the Temperature and Wind sensors (TWINS) instrument onboard the InSight mission and the Mars Environmental Dynamics Analyzer (MEDA) instrument onboard the Mars 2020 mission.

  15. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of energy exchange above a boreal Scots pine forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Launiainen, S.

    2010-12-01

    Twelve-years of eddy-covariance measurements conducted above a boreal Scots pine forest in Hyytiälä, Southern Finland, were analyzed to assess the seasonal and inter-annual variability of surface conductance (gs) and energy partitioning. The gs had distinct annual course, driven by the seasonal cycle of the Scots pine. Low gs (2-3 mm s-1 in April) cause the sensible heat flux to peak in May-June while evapotranspiration takes over later in July-August when gs is typically 5-7 mm s-1. Hence, during normal years Bowen ratio decreases from 4-6 in April to 0.7-0.9 in August. Sensitivity of gs to ambient vapor pressure deficit (D) was relatively constant but the reference value at D = 1 kPa varied seasonally and between years. Only two drought episodes when volumetric soil moisture content in upper mineral soil decreased below 0.15 m3 m-3 occurred during the period. Below this threshold value, transpiration was strongly reduced, which promoted sensible heat exchange increasing Bowen ratio to 3-4. Annual evapotranspiration varied between 218 and 361 mm and accounted between 50% and 90% of equilibrium evaporation. The forest floor contributed between 16 and 25% of the total evapotranspiration on annual scale. The fraction stayed similar over the observed range of environmental conditions including drought periods. The inter-annual variability of evapotranspiration could not be linked to any mean climate variable while the summertime sensible heat flux and net radiation were well explained by global radiation. The energy balance closure varied annually between 0.66 and 0.95 and had a distinct seasonal cycle with worse closure in spring when a large proportion of available energy is partitioned into sensible heat.

  16. Interannual Comparison of Water Vapor in the North Polar Region of Mars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tamppari, L. K.; Smith, M. D.; Hale, A. S.; Bass, D. S.

    2003-01-01

    In order to better understand the current climate of Mars, we seek to understand atmospheric water in the north polar region. Our approach is to examine the water transport and cycling issues within the north polar region and in/out of the region on seasonal and annual timescales. Viking Mars Atmospheric Water Detector (MAWD) data showed that water vapor increased as the northern summer season progressed and temperatures increased, and that vapor appeared to be transported southward . However, there has been uncertainty about the amount of water cycling in and out of the north polar region, as evidenced by residual polar cap visible brightness changes between one Martian year (Mariner 9 data) and a subsequent year (Viking data). These changes were originally thought to be interannual variations in the amount of frost sublimed based on global dust storm activity . However, Viking thermal and imaging data were re-examined and it was found that 14-35 pr m of water -ice appeared to be deposited on the cap later in the summer season, indicating that some water may be retained and redistributed within the polar cap region. This late summer deposition could be due to adsorption directly onto the cap surface or due to snowfall. We seek to understand what happens to the water on seasonal and interannual timescales. We address these issues by examining water vapor in the north polar region of Mars during the north spring and summer period from MGS TES data and by comparing these results to the Viking MAWD results.

  17. Determination of Interannual to Decadal Changes in Ice Sheet Mass Balance from Satellite Altimetry

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zwally, H. Jay; Busalacchi, Antonioa J. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    A major uncertainty in predicting sea level rise is the sensitivity of ice sheet mass balance to climate change, as well as the uncertainty in present mass balance. Since the annual water exchange is about 8 mm of global sea level equivalent, the +/- 25% uncertainty in current mass balance corresponds to +/- 2 mm/yr in sea level change. Furthermore, estimates of the sensitivity of the mass balance to temperature change range from perhaps as much as - 10% to + 10% per K. Although the overall ice mass balance and seasonal and inter-annual variations can be derived from time-series of ice surface elevations from satellite altimetry, satellite radar altimeters have been limited in spatial coverage and elevation accuracy. Nevertheless, new data analysis shows mixed patterns of ice elevation increases and decreases that are significant in terms of regional-scale mass balances. In addition, observed seasonal and interannual variations in elevation demonstrate the potential for relating the variability in mass balance to changes in precipitation, temperature, and melting. From 2001, NASA's ICESat laser altimeter mission will provide significantly better elevation accuracy and spatial coverage to 86 deg latitude and to the margins of the ice sheets. During 3 to 5 years of ICESat-1 operation, an estimate of the overall ice sheet mass balance and sea level contribution will be obtained. The importance of continued ice monitoring after the first ICESat is illustrated by the variability in the area of Greenland surface melt observed over 17-years and its correlation with temperature. In addition, measurement of ice sheet changes, along with measurements of sea level change by a series of ocean altimeters, should enable direct detection of ice level and global sea level correlations.

  18. On interannual variations of the winter temperature at Faraday/Vernadsky Antarctic Station

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Evtushevsky, A.; Kravchenko, V.; Grytsai, A.; Milinevsky, G.

    2009-04-01

    The interannual variations of the winter temperature at Faraday/Vernadsky Station, West Antarctic Peninsula are investigated. The meteorological READER surface air temperature and wind velocity/direction data for 1947-2007 period as well as the temperature and zonal/meridional wind distribution at 1000 hPa from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data (1979-2007) were used. The possible reasons of observed winter warming are discussed. The winter warming is accompanied by narrowing of the temperature variation range between -14°C and -4°C during 1950s to -8°C and -4°C in last decade. Positive trend in annual mean and winter mean temperature corresponds to lowering of the "depth" of cold winter anomalies, which can relate to the area located to the east of Antarctic Peninsula. The indications are seen from agreement between the interannual variations in winter temperature at Faraday/Vernadsky and the east-west migrations of quasistationary distribution of surface air temperature and zonal/meridional wind in Antarctic Peninsula region. The meteorological observations at Faraday/Vernadsky station display long-term changes in the wind distribution pattern: the appearance frequency of the "continental" wind (0°E±45° azimuth) observation has been reduced but the appearance frequency of the "ocean" wind (180°E±45° azimuth) has been increased threefold in the last two decades in comparison to 1950s-1970s. That is evidence of the structural change-over of circulation pattern in the region which is advantageous for warming. Results show that the changes in the quasistationary pattern in Antarctic troposphere contribute to the local climate change in Antarctic Peninsula region. The research was partly supported by National Taras Shevchenko University of Kyiv, project 06BF051-12.

  19. Brief Communication: Upper-air relaxation in RACMO2 significantly improves modelled interannual surface mass balance variability in Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van de Berg, Willem Jan; Medley, Brooke

    2016-03-01

    The Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2) has been a powerful tool for improving surface mass balance (SMB) estimates from GCMs or reanalyses. However, new yearly SMB observations for West Antarctica show that the modelled interannual variability in SMB is poorly simulated by RACMO2, in contrast to ERA-Interim, which resolves this variability well. In an attempt to remedy RACMO2 performance, we included additional upper-air relaxation (UAR) in RACMO2. With UAR, the correlation to observations is similar for RACMO2 and ERA-Interim. The spatial SMB patterns and ice-sheet-integrated SMB modelled using UAR remain very similar to the estimates of RACMO2 without UAR. We only observe an upstream smoothing of precipitation in regions with very steep topography like the Antarctic Peninsula. We conclude that UAR is a useful improvement for regional climate model simulations, although results in regions with steep topography should be treated with care.

  20. Western tropical Pacific hydrology as inferred from northern Borneo speleothems: interannual to orbital-scale variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cobb, K. M.; Carolin, S.; Chen, S.; Lund, D. C.; Meckler, A. N.; Adkins, J. F.; Hoffmann, S. S.; Emile-Geay, J.; Tuen, A.; Pritchard, A.; Clark, B.; Lynch-Stieglitz, J.; Moerman, J. W.; Lejau, S.; Malang, J.

    2015-12-01

    The response of large-scale convective systems in the tropics to anthropogenic climate change remains highly uncertain, even though a large number of paleo-hydrological reconstructions suggest that such systems are sensitive to a variety of past climate forcings across a wide range of timescales. In particular, absolutely-dated speleothems from across the tropics have documented systematic shifts in convective activity that occured in response to abrupt climate change and orbital forcing over the last several glacial-interglacial cycles. In Northern Borneo, overlapping decadally- to centennially-resolved stalagmite oxygen isotopic (d18O) records spanning the last 500,000 years reveal that regional convective activity in this region is dominated by fall precessional insolation forcing, with a significant contribution from abrupt climate change events whose signature is particularly pronounced immediately preceding glacial terminations (Partin et al., 2007; Meckler et al., 2012; Carolin et al., 2013; Carolin et al., in prep). High-resolution (sub-annual) oxygen isotope sampling of select intervals of the Holocene reveals that interannual variability is most reduced at ~5.2kybp, with relatively higher variance observed in the early and late Holocene (Chen et al., in prep). The fact that boreal fall insolation at the equator peaks at ~5kybp during the Holocene implies that the strong fall insolation signal in the longer Borneo stalagmite records may reflect the modulation of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by fall insolation, given the sensitivity of modern-day rainfall and dripwater d18O to ENSO variability (Moerman et al., 2013; Moerman et al., 2014).

  1. Interannual Modulation of Subtropical Atlantic Boreal Summer Dust Variability by ENSO

    SciTech Connect

    DeFlorio, Mike; Goodwin, Ian D.; Cayan, Dan; Miller, Arthur J.; Ghan, Steven J.; Pierce, David; Russell, Lynn M.; Singh, Balwinder

    2016-01-01

    Dust variability in the climate system has been studied for several decades, yet there remains an incomplete understanding of the dynamical mechanisms controlling interannual and decadal variations in dust transport. The sparseness of multi-year observational datasets has limited our understanding of the relationship between climate variations and atmospheric dust. We use available observations and a century-length fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation to show that the El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts a control on North African dust transport during boreal summer. In CESM, this relationship is stronger over the dusty tropical North Atlantic than near Barbados, one of the few sites having a multi-decadal observed record. During strong La Niña summers in CESM, a statistically significant increase in lower tropospheric easterly wind is associated with an increase in North African dust transport over the Atlantic. Barbados dust and Pacific SST variability are only weakly correlated in both observations and CESM, suggesting that other processes are controlling the crossbasin variability of dust. We also use our CESM simulation to show that the relationship between downstream North African dust transport and ENSO fluctuates on multidecadal timescales and may be modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our findings indicate that existing observations of dust over the tropical North Atlantic are not extensive enough to completely describe the variability of dust and dust transport, and demonstrate the importance of global models to supplement and interpret observational records.

  2. The Spatial Coherence of Interannual Temperature Variations in the Antarctic Peninsula

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    King, John C.; Comiso, Josefino C.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Over 50 years of observations from climate stations on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula show that this is a region of extreme interannual variability in near-surface temperatures. The region has also experienced more rapid warming than any other part of the Southern Hemisphere. In this paper we use a new dataset of satellite-derived surface temperatures to define the extent of the region of extreme variability more clearly than was possible using the sparse station data. The region in which satellite surface temperatures correlate strongly with west Peninsula station temperatures is found to be quite small and is largely confined to the seas just west of the Peninsula, with a northward and eastward extension into the Scotia Sea and a southward extension onto the western slopes of Palmer Land. Correlation of Peninsula surface temperatures with surface temperatures over the rest of continental Antarctica is poor confirming that the west Peninsula is in a different climate regime. The analysis has been used to identify sites where ice core proxy records might be representative of variations on the west coast of the Peninsula. Of the five existing core sites examined, only one is likely to provide a representative record for the west coast.

  3. Inter-annual variation of persistent organic pollutants (POPS) in an Antarctic top predator Arctocephalus gazella.

    PubMed

    Brault, Emily K; Goebel, Michael E; Geisz, Heidi N; Canuel, Elizabeth A; Dickhut, Rebecca M

    2013-11-19

    Persistent organic pollutants (POPs), contaminants that may bioaccumulate in upper trophic level organisms, were detected in the milk of a top predator, the Antarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella). Multiparous females had significantly lower concentrations of certain POPs (trans-nonachlor, p,p'-DDE, and several PCBs) in their milk than primiparous females, likely due to the annual lactational transfer of the POP burden from mother to pup. Furthermore, there were significant interannual differences in POP concentrations in multiparous females' milk from five breeding seasons between 2000 and 2011. Decreasing trends in concentrations of certain POPs over the recent decade coincide with declining global emissions, yet atmospheric concentrations in the Antarctic are not always consistent with global trends, suggesting that additional factors may contribute to temporal trends of POPs in fur seals. Climate shifts and corresponding availability of krill over the past decade were not consistent with trends observed in POP concentrations in fur seal milk, suggesting that climate may not be a key factor. Additional mechanisms, such as variability in the geographic ranges of individual seals during overwintering migrations are discussed and should be explored further. PMID:24138491

  4. Processes of interannual mixed layer temperature variability in the thermocline ridge of the Indian Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Praveen Kumar, B.; Vialard, J.; Lengaigne, M.; Murty, V. S. N.; Foltz, G. R.; McPhaden, M. J.; Pous, S.; de Boyer Montégut, C.

    2014-11-01

    Sea-surface temperature interannual anomalies (SSTAs) in the thermocline ridge of the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean (TRIO) have several well-documented climate impacts. In this paper, we explore the physical processes responsible for SSTA evolution in the TRIO region using a combination of observational estimates and model-derived surface layer heat budget analyses. Vertical oceanic processes contribute most to SSTA variance from December to June, while lateral advection dominates from July to November. Atmospheric fluxes generally damp SSTA generation in the TRIO region. As a result of the phase opposition between the seasonal cycle of vertical processes and lateral advection, there is no obvious peak in SSTA amplitude in boreal winter, as previously noted for heat content anomalies. Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the remote influence of El Niño induce comparable warming over the TRIO region, though IOD signals peak earlier (November-December) than those associated with El Niño (around March-May). Mechanisms controlling the SSTA growth in the TRIO region induced by these two climate modes differ strongly. While SSTA growth for the IOD mostly results from southward advection of warmer water, increased surface shortwave flux dominates the El Niño SSTA growth. In both cases, vertical oceanic processes do not contribute strongly to the initial SSTA growth, but rather maintain the SSTA by opposing the effect of atmospheric negative feedbacks during the decaying phase.

  5. GRACE satellite observed hydrological controls on interannual and seasonal variability in surface greenness over mainland Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Yuting; Long, Di; Guan, Huade; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Simmons, Craig T.; Jiang, Lei; Xu, Xiang

    2014-12-01

    Water-limited ecosystems, covering ~50% of the global land, are controlled primarily by hydrologic factors. Because climate change is predicted to markedly alter current hydroclimatic conditions later this century, a better hydrological indicator of ecosystem performance is warranted to improve understanding of hydrological controls on vegetation and to predict changes in the future. Here we show that the observed total water storage anomaly (TWSA) from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) can serve as this indicator. Using the Australian mainland as a case study, where ecosystems are generally water limited, we found that GRACE-observed TWSA can explain changes in surface greenness (as measured by the normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) both interannually and seasonally. In addition, we found that TWSA shows a significant decreasing trend during the millennium drought from 1997 through 2009 in the region. However, decline in annual mean NDVI during the same period was mainly driven by decline in annual minimum monthly NDVI, whereas annual maximum monthly NDVI remained relatively constant across biomes. This phenomenon reveals an intrinsic sensitivity of ecosystems to water availability that drought-induced reductions in surface greenness are more likely expressed through its influence on vegetation during lower NDVI months, whereas ecosystem activities tend to recover to their maximum level during periods when the combined environmental conditions favor vegetation growth within a year despite the context of the prolonged drought.

  6. Recurrent Infections May Signal Immunodeficiencies

    MedlinePlus

    ... Search AAAAI Breadcrumb navigation Home ▸ Conditions & Treatments ▸ Library ▸ Primary Immunodeficiency Disease Library ▸ Recurrent Infections May Signal Immunodeficiencies Share | Recurrent Infections May Signal Immunodeficiencies This article has been reviewed by Thanai Pongdee, MD, FAAAAI ...

  7. Innovative approaches to recurrent training

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noon, H.; Murphy, M.

    1984-01-01

    Innovative approaches to recurrent training for regional airline aircrews are explored. Guidelines for recurrent training programs which include in corporation of cockpit resource management are discussed. B.W.

  8. Space-time variability of Indonesian rainfall at inter-annual and multi-decadal time scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yanto; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Zagona, Edith

    2016-01-01

    We investigated the space-time variability of wet (Nov-Apr) and dry (May-Oct) season rainfall over Indonesia, using monthly gridded rainfall data from the University of East Angela Climatic Research Unit covering the period 1901-2012. Three complimentary techniques were employed—(1) principal component analysis to identify the dominant modes of variability, (2) wavelet spectral analysis to identify the spectral characteristics of the leading modes and their coherence with large scale climate variables and (3) Bayesian Dynamical Linear Model (BDLM) to quantify the temporal variability of the association between rainfall modes and climate variables. In the dry season when the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is to the north of the equator the leading two principal components (PCs) explain close to 50 % of the rainfall. In the wet season the ITCZ moves to the south and the leading PCs explain close to 30 % of the variance. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the driver of the leading modes of rainfall variability during both seasons. We find asymmetry in the teleconnections of ENSO to high and low rainfall years in the dry season. Furthermore, ENSO and the leading PCs of rainfall have spectral coherence in the inter-annual band (2-8 years) over the entire period of record and in the multi-decadal (8-16 years) band in post-1980 years. In addition, during the 1950-1980 period the second mode of variability in both seasons has a strong relationship with Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The association between ENSO and the leading mode of Indonesian rainfall has strengthened in recent decades, more so during dry season. These inter-annual and multi-decadal variability of Indonesian rainfall modulated by Pacific climate drivers has implications for rainfall and hydrologic predictability important for water resources management.

  9. Intra- and Inter-annual Fluorescence Intensity Variations in Drip Water, Heshang Cave, Central China: Implications for Speleothem Palaeoclimatology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, L.; Hu, C.; Li, X.; Ruan, J.; Hartland, A.

    2015-12-01

    Cave drip water acts as a signal carrier for the soil-rock-air system leading to the capture of climatic and environmental information in stalagmites. This paper seeks to develop an understanding of the environmental and climatic factors which control fluorescence variations in dripwater from in Heshang Cave, Central China. This information is essential to unravelling the significance of organic fluorescence in stalagmites and its utility in quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions. On the seasonal time scale, drip water fluorescence is largely controlled by the decomposition and translocation of dissolved organic matter in the soil, related to climate factors like temperature and precipitation. On the inter-annual time scale, longer duration monitoring data in scarce, yet this is needed to fully comprehend the influence of climate in stalagmite fluorescence time series. This study presents nine consecutive years of monthly drip water fluorescence intensity and drip rate data from two perennial drip sites in Heshang Cave. Drip water fluorescence was generally characterized by intensities in spring/summer and low intensities in autumn/winter. In dry hydrologic years, little seasonality in fluorescence signals was observed, but the opposite was observed in wet years. On the inter-annual time scale, the annual mean intensities of drip water fluorescence positively correlated with local annual rainfall with a 1-year lag (R2HS4=0.94; R2HS6=0.74). This indicates that rainfall is the main control on total drip water fluorescence (integrating across a hydrologic year), despite significant degrees of intra-annual fluorescence variation being observed between wet and dry years. These findings are of direct relevance for paleoclimate reconstruction using fluorescence intensities in stalagmites from the Asian monsoon region. Key words: fluorescence; dissolved organic matter; drip water rates; seasonality; precipitation

  10. Interannual variability of Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange and its component fluxes in a subalpine Mediterranean ecosystem (SE Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chamizo, Sonia; Serrano-Ortiz, Penélope; Sánchez-Cañete, Enrique P.; Domingo, Francisco; Arnau-Rosalén, Eva; Oyonarte, Cecilio; Pérez-Priego, Óscar; López-Ballesteros, Ana; Kowalski, Andrew S.

    2015-04-01

    Recent decades under climate change have seen increasing interest in quantifying the carbon (C) balance of different terrestrial ecosystems, and their behavior as sources or sinks of C. Both CO2 exchange between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere and identification of its drivers are key to understanding land-surface feedbacks to climate change. The eddy covariance (EC) technique allows measurements of net ecosystem C exchange (NEE) from short to long time scales. In addition, flux partitioning models can extract the components of net CO2 fluxes, including both biological processes of photosynthesis or gross primary production (GPP) and respiration (Reco), and also abiotic drivers like subsoil CO2 ventilation (VE), which is of particular relevance in semiarid environments. The importance of abiotic processes together with the strong interannual variability of precipitation, which strongly affects CO2 fluxes, complicates the accurate characterization of the C balance in semiarid landscapes. In this study, we examine 10 years of interannual variability of NEE and its components at a subalpine karstic plateau, El Llano de los Juanes, in the Sierra de Gádor (Almería, SE Spain). Results show annual NEE ranging from 55 g C m-2 (net emission) to -54 g C m-2 (net uptake). Among C flux components, GPP was the greatest contributing 42-57% of summed component magnitudes, while contributions by Reco and VE ranged from 27 to 46% and from 3 to 18%, respectively. Annual precipitation during the studied period exhibited high interannual variability, ranging from 210 mm to 1374 mm. Annual precipitation explained 50% of the variance in Reco, 59% of that in GPP, and 56% for VE. While Reco and GPP were positively correlated with annual precipitation (correlation coefficient, R, of 0.71 and 0.77, respectively), VE showed negative correlation with this driver (R = -0.74). During the driest year (2004-2005), annual GPP and Reco reached their lowest values, while contribution of

  11. Recurrent Education: Trends and Issues.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris (France). Centre for Educational Research and Innovation.

    The document, consisting of three parts, focuses on recurrent education and the need for more effective deployment of educational resources within member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The first section discusses the rationale for recurrent education. Recurrent education presents an educational opportunity…

  12. Prevention of recurrent nephrolithiasis.

    PubMed

    Goldfarb, D S; Coe, F L

    1999-11-15

    The first episode of nephrolithiasis provides an opportunity to advise patients about measures for preventing future stones. Low fluid intake and excessive intake of protein, salt and oxalate are important modifiable risk factors for kidney stones. Calcium restriction is not useful and may potentiate osteoporosis. Diseases such as hyperparathyroidism, sarcoidosis and renal tubular acidosis should be considered in patients with nephrolithiasis. A 24-hour urine collection with measurement of the important analytes is usually reserved for use in patients with recurrent stone formation. In these patients, the major urinary risk factors include hypercalciuria, hyperoxaluria, hypocitraturia and hyperuricosuria. Effective preventive and treatment measures include thiazide therapy to lower the urinary calcium level, citrate supplementation to increase the urinary citrate level and, sometimes, allopurinol therapy to lower uric acid excretion. Uric acid stones are most often treated with citrate supplementation. Data now support the cost-effectiveness of evaluation and treatment of patients with recurrent stones. PMID:10593318

  13. Interannual Rainfall Variability in the Tropical Atlantic Region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gu, Guojun

    2005-01-01

    Rainfall variability on seasonal and interannual-to-interdecadal time scales in the tropical Atlantic is quantified using a 25-year (1979-2003) monthly rainfall dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The ITCZ measured by monthly rainfall between 15-37.5 deg W attains its peak as moving to the northernmost latitude (4-10 deg N) during July-September in which the most total rainfall is observed in the tropical Atlantic basin (17.5 deg S-22.5 deg N, 15 deg-37.5 deg W); the ITCZ becomes weakest during January-February with the least total rainfall as it moves to the south. In contrast, rainfall variability on interannual to interdecadal time scales shows a quite different seasonal preference. The most intense interannual variability occurs during March-May when the ITCZ tends to be near the equator and becomes weaker. Significant, negative correlations between the ITCZ strength and latitude anomalies are observed during boreal spring and early summer. The ITCZ strength and total rainfall amount in the tropical Atlantic basin are significantly modulated by the Pacific El Nino and the Atlantic equatorial mode (or Atlantic Nino) particularly during boreal spring and summer; whereas the impact of the Atlantic interhemispheric mode is considerably weaker. Regarding the anomalous latitudes of the ITCZ, the influence can come from both local, i.e., the Atlantic interhemispheric and equatorial modes, and remote forcings, i. e., El Nino; however, a direct impact of El Nino on the latitudes of the ITCZ can only be found during April-July, not in winter and early spring in which the warmest SST anomalies are usually observed in the equatorial Pacific.

  14. Weather variability and interannual responses of the vegetation and crops in Cordoba-Argentina assessed by AVHRR derived vegetation indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seiler, R.; Kogan, F.; Vinocur, M.

    Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) based vegetation indices are widely accepted as good indicators for providing vegetation properties and associated changes for large scale geographic regions. Also, their capability to indicate moisture conditions makes them an important data source for monitoring climate variations and droughts. The objective of this study was to assess the seasonal interannual responses of vegetation and crops to the weather variability. Time-series analysis of AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and vegetation health indices weekly composite data collected during 1981-2003 were used to generate the seasonal vegetation curves for each of the departments (administrative unite) of the Cordoba province in Argentina, and to calculate the onset of the growing seasons. Yield series of corn and soybean for each of the departments were analyzed against AVHRR derived indices and seasonal precipitation data from the meteorological stations in the province. Results from the analysis showed that the variability of the indices serves as good proxy for identifying climate variations and thus provide insights into understanding the regional climate carrying capacity, the climate anomalies and the effects of the climate variability on vegetation, on the onset and length of the growing season and on the yields of agricultural crops.

  15. Comparison of tropical cyclogenesis indices on seasonal to interannual timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menkes, Christophe E.; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Marchesiello, Patrick; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Vincent, Emmanuel M.; Lefèvre, Jérôme; Chauvin, Fabrice; Royer, Jean-Francois

    2012-01-01

    This paper evaluates the performances of four cyclogenesis indices against observed tropical cyclone genesis on a global scale over the period 1979-2001. These indices are: the Genesis Potential Index; the Yearly Genesis Parameter; the Modified Yearly Convective Genesis Potential Index; and the Tippett et al. Index (J Clim, 2011), hereafter referred to as TCS. Choosing ERA40, NCEP2, NCEP or JRA25 reanalysis to calculate these indices can yield regional differences but overall does not change the main conclusions arising from this study. By contrast, differences between indices are large and vary depending on the regions and on the timescales considered. All indices except the TCS show an equatorward bias in mean cyclogenesis, especially in the northern hemisphere where this bias can reach 5°. Mean simulated genesis numbers for all indices exhibit large regional discrepancies, which can commonly reach up to ±50%. For the seasonal timescales on which the indices are historically fitted, performances also vary widely in terms of amplitude although in general they all reproduce the cyclogenesis seasonality adequately. At the seasonal scale, the TCS seems to be the best fitted index overall. The most striking feature at interannual scales is the inability of all indices to reproduce the observed cyclogenesis amplitude. The indices also lack the ability to reproduce the general interannual phase variability, but they do, however, acceptably reproduce the phase variability linked to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—a major driver of tropical cyclones interannual variations. In terms of cyclogenesis mechanisms that can be inferred from the analysis of the index terms, there are wide variations from one index to another at seasonal and interannual timescales and caution is advised when using these terms from one index only. They do, however, show a very good coherence at ENSO scale thus inspiring confidence in the mechanism interpretations that can be obtained by

  16. Interannual and Intraseasonal oscillations and extreme events over South America simulated by HIGEM models.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Custodio, Maria; Ambrizzi, Tercio

    2014-05-01

    The climatic system has its fluctuations determined mainly by the complex fluxes from the ocean and atmosphere. The fluxes transport energy, momentum and tracers within and between system components; they occur in a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Because of this, according to Shaffrey et al. (2009) the development of high resolution global models is indispensable, to simulate the energy transfer to smaller scales and to capture the non linear interactions between wide ranges of spatial and temporal scales, and between the different components of climatic system. There are strong reasons to increase the resolution of all the atmospheric and oceanic components of coupled climatic models (AGCM) and uncoupled climatic models (GCM). The South America (SA) climate is characterized by different precipitation regimes and its variability has large influences of the large scale phenomena in the interanual (El Niño South Oscilation - ENSO) and intraseasonal (Maden Julian Oscilation - MJO) timescales. Normally, the AGCM and CGM use low horizontal resolution and present difficult in the representation of these low frequency variability phenomena. The goal of this work is to evaluate the performance of coupled and uncoupled versions of the High-Resolution Global Environmental Model, which will be denominated NUGEM (~60 Km), HiGEM (~90 km) and HadGEM (~135 km) and NUGAM (~60 Km), HiGAM (~90 Km) and HadGAM (~135 Km), respectively, in capturing the signal of interannual and intraseasonal variability of precipitation and temperature over SA. Basically we want discuss the impact of sea surface temperature in the annual cycle of atmospheric variables. The simulations were compared with precipitation data from Climate Prediction Center - Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and with temperature data from ERA-Interim, both for the period 1979 to 2008. The precipitation and temperature time-series were filtered on the interanual (period > 365 days) and intraseasonal (30

  17. Coral Radiocarbon Record of Interannual Variability in Wind-induced Upwelling Along the Coast of Sumatra, Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grumet, N. S.; Abram, N. J.; Beck, J. W.; Dunbar, R. B.; Gagan, M. K.

    2002-12-01

    Radiocarbon measurements from annually banded corals have been shown to track radiocarbon levels of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the surrounding surface water. As a result of nuclear weapons testing in the 1950s, production of excess radiocarbon has increased the contrast between surface and deep ocean carbon-14 concentrations. The temporal evolution of this gradient in radiocarbon is preserved in a coral record from the Mentawai Islands, Sumatra (0S, 98E), in the eastern Indian Ocean. During the southeast monsoon, alongshore winds generate Ekman upwelling along the Java-Sumatra coasts, which transports 14C-depleted thermocline water toward the surface-dwelling Mentawai corals. The strength of upwelling in the Mentawai Islands, which is characterized by lower sea surface temperatures, a shallower thermocline and lower sea surface height, reflects variability in the monsoon winds and is modulated by interannual atmosphere-ocean teleconnections. Bimonthly AMS-14C measurements on the Mentawai coral show that the seasonal radiocarbon signal is relatively weak, while the interannual signal is clearly marked by episodic depletions in radiocarbon levels. These events are most likely responding to a relaxation of the westerly trades and subsequent strengthening of the easterlies. Easterly anomalies are linked to a large scale adjustment of the sea surface height along the equator and a shallower eastern thermocline. Our results suggest that interannual climate variability is the dominant forcing mechanism with seasonal variability secondary. Together, bimonthly coral oxygen isotope and radiocarbon records capture variability in upwelling, and hence the strength of the southeast monsoon. Comparison with a coral radiocarbon record from the western Indian Ocean provides insights into oceanic processes across the Indian Ocean basin and the question of the existence of an Indian Ocean Dipole.

  18. Interannual Variability of Total Cloud Cover and Cloud Types over Eastern Part of Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bostan, D. C.; Stefan, S.

    2009-04-01

    Clouds play a key role in climate and weather forecasting. The observations of clouds and cloud cover at regional scale are very important in the study of clouds' radiative forcing, and consequently, in changing the radiative budget in the climatic system. This paper is focused on the analysis of spatial and temporal distribution of clouds and cloud cover. These observational data can be used in regional climate models. Synoptic surface cloud observations from 14 stations are used to examine the variability of the cloud cover in 2006 over Moldova, which is the extra Carpathian area of Romania. The hourly data of the total cloud cover and partial cloud ceiling were processed and statistically analyzed. The observational database was completed using a simple algorithm that improved the middle cloudiness environment by more than 39% and the high clouds environment by 100%, compared to the initial data. Trends in total and low cloud cover were investigated in detail by examining changes in the frequency of appearance. The significant underestimation for the middle and high clouds was obvious for low cloudiness values of 6, 7 and 8 oktas, and it has reduced the average cloud cover up to 4.5% and the top up to 15.4%. Seasonal analysis performed in January and July 2006 showed that the low cloud cover was 50% higher in winter as compared to the warm season. The presence of the middle cloud cover was constant during the two seasons (generally between 60-70%), while the high cloudiness dominated during the summer months. The investigations of smaller regions and interannual variability are important, although the real fluctuations in cloud cover are relatively large in such instances. As such, a study of the fluctuations in cloud cover will be necessary in the future.

  19. A phenology-based reconstruction of interannual changes in past spring seasons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rutishauser, T.; Luterbacher, J.; Jeanneret, F.; Pfister, C.; Wanner, H.

    2007-12-01

    Plant phenological observations are accurately dated information of seasonal vegetation variability in midlatitude climates. In order to extend phenological records into the past and assess climate impacts on vegetation on long timescales, there is a need to make use of historical observations of plant phenology. Here we present a continuous, annually resolved reconstruction of a statistical `Spring plant' defined as the weighted mean for the flowering of cherry and apple tree and budburst beech from plant phenological observations across a range of sites in Switzerland from 1702 to 2005. The reconstruction indicates a statistical reconstruction uncertainty (±3.4 days) at interannual timescale. The earliest and the latest year were observed in 1961 (14 April) and 1879 (13 May), respectively. In the context of the last 300 years, the recent three decades do not show a preponderance of very early years as expected from increased spring temperatures. Most of the years in the period after 1990, however, are earlier than the reconstruction mean (27 April). The 1940s, 1910s, 1890s and the early 18th century are periods with similarly early starts of spring season in comparison with the recent decades. Moving linear trend analysis shows unprecedented agreement towards earlier spring onsets in observed and temperature-based, reconstructed plant phenological records in the late 20th/early 21st century. Our reconstructed `Spring plant' provides long-term evidence of vegetation variability for comparisons with temperature measurement and other spring onset indicators such as snow melt. The multicentennial long record offers a high potential for applications in long-term climate impact studies and vegetation model validations.

  20. Inter-annual changes of Biomass Burning and Desert Dust and their impact over East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DONG, X.; Fu, J. S.; Huang, K.

    2014-12-01

    Impact of mineral dust and biomass burning aerosols on air quality has been well documented in the last few decades, but the knowledge about their interactions with anthropogenic emission and their impacts on regional climate is very limited (IPCC, 2007). While East Asia is greatly affected by dust storms in spring from Taklamakan and Gobi deserts (Huang et al., 2010; Li et al., 2012), it also suffers from significant biomass burning emission from Southeast Asia during the same season. Observations from both surface monitoring and satellite data indicated that mineral dust and biomass burning aerosols may approach to coastal area of East Asia simultaneously, thus have a very unique impact on the local atmospheric environment and regional climate. In this study, we first investigated the inter-annual variations of biomass burning and dust aerosols emission for 5 consecutive years from 2006-2010 to estimate the upper and lower limits and correlation with meteorology conditions, and then evaluate their impacts with a chemical transport system. Our preliminary results indicated that biomass burning has a strong correlation with precipitation over Southeast Asia, which could drive the emission varying from 542 Tg in 2008 to 945 Tg in 2010, according to FLAMBE emission inventory (Reid et al., 2009). Mineral dust also demonstrated a strong dependence on wind filed. These inter-annual/annual variations will also lead to different findings and impacts on air quality in East Asia. Reference: Huang, K., et al. (2010), Mixing of Asian dust with pollution aerosol and the transformation of aerosol components during the dust storm over China in spring 2007, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 115. IPCC (2007), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, New York. Li, J., et al. (2012), Mixing of Asian mineral dust with anthropogenic pollutants over East Asia: a model case study of a super-duststorm in

  1. Meteorological influences on the interannual variability of meningitis incidence in northwest Nigeria.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdussalam, Auwal; Monaghan, Andrew; Dukic, Vanja; Hayden, Mary; Hopson, Thomas; Leckebusch, Gregor

    2013-04-01

    Northwest Nigeria is a region with high risk of bacterial meningitis. Since the first documented epidemic of meningitis in Nigeria in 1905, the disease has been endemic in the northern part of the country, with epidemics occurring regularly. In this study we examine the influence of climate on the interannual variability of meningitis incidence and epidemics. Monthly aggregate counts of clinically confirmed hospital-reported cases of meningitis were collected in northwest Nigeria for the 22-year period spanning 1990-2011. Several generalized linear statistical models were fit to the monthly meningitis counts, including generalized additive models. Explanatory variables included monthly records of temperatures, humidity, rainfall, wind speed, sunshine and dustiness from weather stations nearest to the hospitals, and a time series of polysaccharide vaccination efficacy. The effects of other confounding factors -- i.e., mainly non-climatic factors for which records were not available -- were estimated as a smooth, monthly-varying function of time in the generalized additive models. Results reveal that the most important explanatory climatic variables are mean maximum monthly temperature, relative humidity and dustiness. Accounting for confounding factors (e.g., social processes) in the generalized additive models explains more of the year-to-year variation of meningococcal disease compared to those generalized linear models that do not account for such factors. Promising results from several models that included only explanatory variables that preceded the meningitis case data by 1-month suggest there may be potential for prediction of meningitis in northwest Nigeria to aid decision makers on this time scale.

  2. Regional climate change in the Northern Adriatic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zampieri, M.; Giorgi, F.; Lionello, P.; Nikulin, G.

    An analysis of the climate change signal for seasonal temperature and precipitation over the Northern Adriatic region is presented here. We collected 43 regional climate simulations covering the target area, including experiments produced in the context of the PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES projects, and additional experiments produced by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. The ability of the models to simulate the present climate in terms of mean and interannual variability is discussed and the insufficient reproduction of some features, such as the intensity of summer precipitation, are shown. The contribution to the variance associated with the intermodel spread is computed. The changes of mean and interannual variability are analyzed for the period 2071-2100 in the PRUDENCE runs (A2 scenario) and the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 (A1B scenario) for the other runs. Ensemble results show a major warming at the end of the 21st century. Warming will be larger in the A2 scenario (about 5.5 K in summer and 4 K in winter) than in the A1B. Precipitation is projected to increase in winter and decrease in summer by 20% (+0.5 mm/day and -1 mm/day over the Alps, respectively). The climate change signal for scenario A1B in the period 2021-2050 is significant for temperature, but not yet for precipitation. In summer, interannual variability is projected to increase for temperature and for precipitation. Winter interannual variability change is different among scenarios. A reduction of precipitation is found for A2, while for A1B a reduction of temperature interannual variability is observed.

  3. Geodetic secular velocity errors due to interannual surface loading deformation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santamaría-Gómez, Alvaro; Mémin, Anthony

    2015-08-01

    Geodetic vertical velocities derived from data as short as 3 yr are often assumed to be representative of linear deformation over past decades to millennia. We use two decades of surface loading deformation predictions due to variations of atmospheric, oceanic and continental water mass to assess the effect on secular velocities estimated from short time-series. The interannual deformation is time-correlated at most locations over the globe, with the level of correlation depending mostly on the chosen continental water model. Using the most conservative loading model and 5-yr-long time-series, we found median vertical velocity errors of 0.5 mm yr-1 over the continents (0.3 mm yr-1 globally), exceeding 1 mm yr-1 in regions around the southern Tropic. Horizontal velocity errors were seven times smaller. Unless an accurate loading model is available, a decade of continuous data is required in these regions to mitigate the impact of the interannual loading deformation on secular velocities.

  4. Interannual forcing mechanisms of California Current transports I: Meridional Currents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, Andrew; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele

    2015-02-01

    An ensemble of eddy-resolving ocean model hindcasts integrated from 1950 to 2008 is used to examine and quantify the interannual variability of large-scale (>200 km) alongshore equatorward flow in the California Current System (CCS). We also develop a single index of this transport in order to determine what fraction of variance is driven locally, by changes in wind stress curl, and remotely, by the arrival of coastally trapped waves of tropical origin. In agreement with previous studies, coastally trapped waves dominate large-scale interannual CCS sea surface height variability. In contrast, we find that large-scale alongshore currents (v) are driven predominantly by local wind stress curl variability rather than coastally trapped waves. A simple wind-driven diagnostic model of the time-dependent large-scale geostrophic meridional transport captures ~50% (R=0.7) of the total variance. The local wind-stress curl gradient that controls the largest fraction of meridional transport is not independent of the modulations in atmospheric circulation that drive the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and a significant fraction of the monthly transport variability in the model ensembles is correlated to the PDO (R=0.4).

  5. Vole and lemming activity observed from space: trophic cascade driven interannual vegetation cycles at a regional scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olofsson, J.; Tömmervik, H.; Callaghan, T.

    2011-12-01

    Present global warming requires an understanding of the factors controlling plant biomass and production. The extent to which plant biomass and production is controlled by bottom-up drivers like climate, nutrient and water availability and by top down drivers like herbivory and diseases in terrestrial systems is still under debate. By annually recording plant biomass and community composition in grazed control plots and in herbivore-free exclosures, at twelve sites in a subarctic ecosystem, we were able to show that the regular interannual density fluctuations of voles and lemmings drive synchronous interannual fluctuations in biomass of ground and field layer vegetation (Fig. 1). The effect of the rodents on the vegetation is so strong that it can be detected in fluctuations of NDVI estimates from satellite images of a 20km2 area of tundra heathland. Plant biomass in the field layer was between 9 and 23% lower and NDVI was between 1 % and 25 % lower, the year after a vole peak than the year before. The synchronous decline of most dominant shrub species in the winter following an autumn rodent peak drives the fluctuations in total plant biomass. That the rodent cycles are detectable from satellite images, despite the wide range of abiotic, biotic and antropogenic forces that influence the vegetation, shows that the effects of rodents are strong enough to influence how primary production, carbon storage and biodiversity will respond to ongoing and future climate change. Changes of the rodent cycle may thus cause cascading changes of ecosystem functioning in a changing climate.

  6. Performance of the WRF model to simulate the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in East Africa: a case study for the Tana River basin in Kenya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kerandi, Noah Misati; Laux, Patrick; Arnault, Joel; Kunstmann, Harald

    2016-08-01

    This study investigates the ability of the regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) in simulating the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in the Tana River basin (TRB) in Kenya, East Africa. The impact of two different land use classifications, i.e., the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the US Geological Survey (USGS) at two horizontal resolutions (50 and 25 km) is investigated. Simulated precipitation and temperature for the period 2011-2014 are compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Climate Research Unit (CRU), and station data. The ability of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) data in reproducing in situ observation in the TRB is analyzed. All considered WRF simulations capture well the annual as well as the interannual and spatial distribution of precipitation in the TRB according to station data and the TRMM estimates. Our results demonstrate that the increase of horizontal resolution from 50 to 25 km, together with the use of the MODIS land use classification, significantly improves the precipitation results. In the case of temperature, spatial patterns and seasonal cycle are well reproduced, although there is a systematic cold bias with respect to both station and CRU data. Our results contribute to the identification of suitable and regionally adapted regional climate models (RCMs) for East Africa.

  7. The Dynamic Watershed and the Coastal Ocean: Biogeochemical Linkages and Interannual Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olhsson, E.; Powell, T. M.

    2013-12-01

    What is the fate of riverine nutrients in the coastal ocean? To what extent does the timing and magnitude of river discharge influence coastal primary productivity? What mechanisms link biological variability to changes within a given watershed? And how might climate change alter these relationships? To test the advantages of using regional scale model coupling to explore these questions, an example river was selected for study: the Eel River. The Eel River discharges into the North Pacific at 40° 38.5' in Northern California. Its annual discharge (~200 m3/s) is about 1% that of the Mississippi, but its sediment yield (15 million tons/yr) is the highest for its drainage area (9500 km2) in the entire continental US. It is an advantageous choice for a test case to model because its annual behavior is dramatic and potentially very sensitive to changes in climate. Driven by the Mediterranean climate of northern California, it is characterized by low flow during the long dry season. Then, each winter and spring, storm events flush sediments, nutrients, organic matter and organisms down the river to the ocean, in large pulses. The storm flows are out of phase with the other major nutrient input to local coastal biology: late spring and summer upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich ocean water to the photosynthetically active surface. The timing and magnitude of these storm events, and thus of Eel riverine nutrient delivery, have a great deal of interannual variability and may be altered by climate change. Furthermore, satellite ocean color imagery suggests that the fluxes from the Eel River may contribute to phytoplankton blooms offshore, demonstrating spatial, seasonal and interannual variability of ocean color, north and south of the Eel River's mouth. This study constructs a detailed modeling framework to examine the connections between variability in weather (modulated, slowly, by climate trends), river nutrient delivery to the ocean, and coastal phytoplankton

  8. Recurrent Miller Fisher syndrome.

    PubMed

    Madhavan, S; Geetha; Bhargavan, P V

    2004-07-01

    Miller Fisher syndrome (MFS) is a variant of Guillan Barre syndrome characterized by the triad of ophthalmoplegia, ataxia and areflexia. Recurrences are exceptional with Miller Fisher syndrome. We are reporting a case with two episodes of MFS within two years. Initially he presented with partial ophthalmoplegia, ataxia. Second episode was characterized by full-blown presentation characterized by ataxia, areflexia and ophthalmoplegia. CSF analysis was typical during both episodes. Nerve conduction velocity study was fairly within normal limits. MRI of brain was within normal limits. He responded to symptomatic measures initially, then to steroids in the second episode. We are reporting the case due to its rarity.

  9. Recurrent respiratory papillomatosis.

    PubMed

    Venkatesan, Naren N; Pine, Harold S; Underbrink, Michael P

    2012-06-01

    Recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (RRP) is a rare, benign disease with no known cure. RRP is caused by infection of the upper aerodigestive tract with the human papillomavirus (HPV). Passage through the birth canal is thought to be the initial transmission event, but infection may occur in utero. HPV vaccines have helped to provide protection from cervical cancer; however, their role in the prevention of RRP is undetermined. Clinical presentation of initial symptoms of RRP may be subtle. RRP course varies, and current management focuses on surgical debulking of papillomatous lesions with or without concurrent adjuvant therapy. PMID:22588043

  10. Inter-annual changes in detritus-based food chains can enhance plant growth response to elevated atmospheric CO2.

    PubMed

    Hines, Jes; Eisenhauer, Nico; Drake, Bert G

    2015-12-01

    Elevated atmospheric CO2 generally enhances plant growth, but the magnitude of the effects depend, in part, on nutrient availability and plant photosynthetic pathway. Due to their pivotal role in nutrient cycling, changes in abundance of detritivores could influence the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on essential ecosystem processes, such as decomposition and primary production. We conducted a field survey and a microcosm experiment to test the influence of changes in detritus-based food chains on litter mass loss and plant growth response to elevated atmospheric CO2 using two wetland plants: a C3 sedge (Scirpus olneyi) and a C4 grass (Spartina patens). Our field study revealed that organism's sensitivity to climate increased with trophic level resulting in strong inter-annual variation in detritus-based food chain length. Our microcosm experiment demonstrated that increased detritivore abundance could not only enhance decomposition rates, but also enhance plant growth of S. olneyi in elevated atmospheric CO2 conditions. In contrast, we found no evidence that changes in the detritus-based food chains influenced the growth of S. patens. Considered together, these results emphasize the importance of approaches that unite traditionally subdivided food web compartments and plant physiological processes to understand inter-annual variation in plant production response to elevated atmospheric CO2. PMID:25953075

  11. Inter-annual changes in detritus-based food chains can enhance plant growth response to elevated atmospheric CO2.

    PubMed

    Hines, Jes; Eisenhauer, Nico; Drake, Bert G

    2015-12-01

    Elevated atmospheric CO2 generally enhances plant growth, but the magnitude of the effects depend, in part, on nutrient availability and plant photosynthetic pathway. Due to their pivotal role in nutrient cycling, changes in abundance of detritivores could influence the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on essential ecosystem processes, such as decomposition and primary production. We conducted a field survey and a microcosm experiment to test the influence of changes in detritus-based food chains on litter mass loss and plant growth response to elevated atmospheric CO2 using two wetland plants: a C3 sedge (Scirpus olneyi) and a C4 grass (Spartina patens). Our field study revealed that organism's sensitivity to climate increased with trophic level resulting in strong inter-annual variation in detritus-based food chain length. Our microcosm experiment demonstrated that increased detritivore abundance could not only enhance decomposition rates, but also enhance plant growth of S. olneyi in elevated atmospheric CO2 conditions. In contrast, we found no evidence that changes in the detritus-based food chains influenced the growth of S. patens. Considered together, these results emphasize the importance of approaches that unite traditionally subdivided food web compartments and plant physiological processes to understand inter-annual variation in plant production response to elevated atmospheric CO2.

  12. Biophysical controls on interannual variability in ecosystem-scale CO2 and CH4 exchange in a California rice paddy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knox, Sara Helen; Matthes, Jaclyn Hatala; Sturtevant, Cove; Oikawa, Patricia Y.; Verfaillie, Joseph; Baldocchi, Dennis

    2016-03-01

    We present 6.5 years of eddy covariance measurements of fluxes of methane (FCH4) and carbon dioxide (FCO2) from a flooded rice paddy in Northern California, USA. A pronounced warming trend throughout the study associated with drought and record high temperatures strongly influenced carbon (C) budgets and provided insights into biophysical controls of FCO2 and FCH4. Wavelet analysis indicated that photosynthesis (gross ecosystem production, GEP) induced the diel pattern in FCH4, but soil temperature (Ts) modulated its amplitude. Forward stepwise linear models and neural networking modeling were used to assess the variables regulating seasonal FCH4. As expected due to their competence in modeling nonlinear relationships, neural network models explained considerably more of the variance in daily average FCH4 than linear models. During the growing season, GEP and water levels typically explained most of the variance in daily average FCH4. However, Ts explained much of the interannual variability in annual and growing season CH4 sums. Higher Ts also increased the annual and growing season ratio of FCH4 to GEP. The observation that the FCH4 to GEP ratio scales predictably with Ts may help improve global estimates of FCH4 from rice agriculture. Additionally, Ts strongly influenced ecosystem respiration, resulting in large interannual variability in the net C budget at the paddy, emphasizing the need for long-term measurements particularly under changing climatic conditions.

  13. Linking in-stream nutrient flux to land use and inter-annual hydrological variability at the watershed scale.

    PubMed

    Aguilera, Rosana; Marcé, Rafael; Sabater, Sergi

    2012-12-01

    The significance of nutrient inputs at the watershed scale is best expressed in terms of in-stream processes, compared to evaluating simple field measurements of nutrient inputs. Modeling tools are necessary to consider the complexity of river networks in the determination of the sources and processes by which nutrients are transported at the watershed scale. Mediterranean rivers are potentially vulnerable to climate change (decrease in precipitation and increase of extreme events), and identifying and quantifying nutrient pollution sources and their spatial distribution can improve water resource management at the watershed scale. We apply a hybrid process-based and statistical model (SPARROW, spatially referenced regression on watershed attributes) to a largely disturbed Mediterranean watershed in NE Spain in order to estimate the annual nitrate and phosphate loads reaching the drainage network. The model emphasized the contribution of in-stream processes in nutrient transport and retention, and the inter-annual (7 years) effects of hydrological variability on the export of nutrients from the landscape to water bodies. Although forest and grassland land cover types predominate, agricultural activities and human agglomerations were significant sources of nutrient enrichment. Nutrient flux apportionment was also linked to inter-annual hydrological variability. Exported nutrient load increased in the downstream direction and coincided with decreased in-stream nutrient removal, probably worsened by the significant chemical and geomorphological impairment found in the lower parts of the watershed.

  14. Implications of East Asian summer and winter monsoons for interannual aerosol variations over central-eastern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Xugeng; Zhao, Tianliang; Gong, Sunling; Xu, Xiangde; Han, Yongxiang; Yin, Yan; Tang, Lili; He, Hongchang; He, Jinhai

    2016-03-01

    connection with atmospheric boundary layer conditions resulted in wintertime aerosol variations over CEC. Climate change with regard to EAMs could modulate the interannual variations in aerosols and air quality over CEC by changing near-surface winds, precipitation and atmospheric boundary layer.

  15. Recurrent renal giant leiomyosarcoma.

    PubMed

    Öziş, Salih Erpulat; Gülpınar, Kamil; Şahlı, Zafer; Konak, Baha Burak; Keskin, Mete; Özdemir, Süleyman; Ataoğlu, Ömür

    2016-01-01

    Primary renal leiomyosarcomas are rare, aggressive tumors. They constitute 1-2% of adult malignant renal tumors. Although leiomyosarcomas are the most common histological type (50-60%) of renal sarcomas, information on renal leiomyosarcoma is limited. Local or systemic recurrences are common. The radiological appearance of renal leiomyosarcomas is not specific, therefore renal leiomyosarcoma cannot be distinguished from renal cell carcinoma by imaging methods in all patients. A 74-year-old female patient presented to our clinic complaining of a palpable mass on the right side of her abdomen in November 2012. The abdominal magnetic resonance imaging revealed a mass, 25 × 24 × 23 cm in size. Her past medical history revealed that she has undergone right radical nephrectomy in 2007, due to a 11 × 12 × 13 cm renal mass that was then reported as renal cell carcinoma on abdominal magnetic resonance imaging, but the pathological diagnosis was low-grade renal leiomyosarcoma. The most recent follow-up of the patient was in 2011, with no signs of local recurrence or distant metastases within this four-year period. The patient underwent laparotomy on November 2012, and a 35 cm retroperitoneal mass was excised. The pathological examination of the mass was reported as high-grade leiomyosarcoma. The formation of this giant retroperitoneal mass in 1 year can be explained by the transformation of the lesion's pathology from low-grade to a high-grade tumor. PMID:27436926

  16. Quantifying Interannual Variability for Photovoltaic Systems in PVWatts

    SciTech Connect

    Ryberg, David Severin; Freeman, Janine; Blair, Nate

    2015-10-01

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) PVWatts is a relatively simple tool used by industry and individuals alike to easily estimate the amount of energy a photovoltaic (PV) system will produce throughout the course of a typical year. PVWatts Version 5 has previously been shown to be able to reasonably represent an operating system's output when provided with concurrent weather data, however this type of data is not available when estimating system output during future time frames. For this purpose PVWatts uses weather data from typical meteorological year (TMY) datasets which are available on the NREL website. The TMY files represent a statistically 'typical' year which by definition excludes anomalous weather patterns and as a result may not provide sufficient quantification of project risk to the financial community. It was therefore desired to quantify the interannual variability associated with TMY files in order to improve the understanding of risk associated with these projects. To begin to understand the interannual variability of a PV project, we simulated two archetypal PV system designs, which are common in the PV industry, in PVWatts using the NSRDB's 1961-1990 historical dataset. This dataset contains measured hourly weather data and spans the thirty years from 1961-1990 for 239 locations in the United States. To note, this historical dataset was used to compose the TMY2 dataset. Using the results of these simulations we computed several statistical metrics which may be of interest to the financial community and normalized the results with respect to the TMY energy prediction at each location, so that these results could be easily translated to similar systems. This report briefly describes the simulation process used and the statistical methodology employed for this project, but otherwise focuses mainly on a sample of our results. A short discussion of these results is also provided. It is our hope that this quantification of the

  17. Climatic crystal balls

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    What do anchovy and coffee prices have in common? They both are influenced by weather patterns. And so are a lot of other industries in the world of commodities. A new report from the National Research Council says it's time to protect these economic interests. The report outlines a new 15-year global research program that would help scientists make better seasonal and interannual climate predictions. Called the Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System or GOALS, the new program would be an extension of the decade-long international Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program, which comes to an end this year. Besides studying the climatic effects of tropical phenomena such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the program would expand these types of studies to Earth's higher latitudes and to additional physical processes, such as the effects of changes in upper ocean currents, soil moisture, vegetation, and land, snow, and sea-ice cover, among others.

  18. Recurrence theorems: A unified account

    SciTech Connect

    Wallace, David

    2015-02-15

    I discuss classical and quantum recurrence theorems in a unified manner, treating both as generalisations of the fact that a system with a finite state space only has so many places to go. Along the way, I prove versions of the recurrence theorem applicable to dynamics on linear and metric spaces and make some comments about applications of the classical recurrence theorem in the foundations of statistical mechanics.

  19. Interannual Variability and Trends of Extratropical Ozone, Part II: Southern Hemisphere. Part 2; Southern Hemisphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yung, Y. L.

    2008-01-01

    A principal component analysis (PCA) is applied to the Southern Hemisphere (SH) total column ozone following the method established for analyzing the data in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) in a companion paper. The interannual variability (IAV) of extratropical O-3 in the SH is characterized by four main modes, which account for 75% of the total variance. The first two leading modes are approximately zonally symmetric and relate to the Southern Hemisphere annular mode and the quasi-biennial oscillation. The third and fourth modes exhibit wavenumber-1 structures. Contrary to the Northern Hemisphere, the third and fourth are nor related to stationary waves. Similar results obtained for the 30 100-hPa geopotential thickness.The decreasing O3 trend in the SH is captured in the first mode. The largest trend is at the South Pole, with value similar to-2 Dobson Units (DU)/yr. Both the spatial pattern and trends in the column ozone are captured by the Goddard Earth Observation System chemistry-climate model (GEOS-CCM) in the SH.

  20. Interannual variation of the surface temperature of tropical forests from satellite observations

    SciTech Connect

    Gao, Huilin; Zhang, Shuai; Fu, Rong; Li, Wenhong; Dickinson, Robert E.

    2016-01-01

    Land surface temperatures (LSTs) within tropical forests contribute to climate variations. However, observational data are very limited in such regions. This study used passive microwave remote sensing data from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS), providing observations under all weather conditions, to investigate the LST over the Amazon and Congo rainforests. The SSM/I and SSMIS data were collected from 1996 to 2012. The morning and afternoon observations from passive microwave remote sensing facilitate the investigation of the interannual changes of LST anomalies on a diurnal basis. As a result of the variability of cloud cover and the corresponding reduction of solar radiation, the afternoon LST anomalies tend to vary more than the morning LST anomalies. The dominant spatial and temporal patterns for interseasonal variations of the LST anomalies over the tropical rainforest were analyzed. The impacts of droughts and El Niños on this LST were also investigated. Lastly, the differences between early morning and late afternoon LST anomalies were identified by the remote sensing product, with the morning LST anomalies controlled by humidity (according to comparisons with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data).

  1. Interannual variation of the surface temperature of tropical forests from satellite observations

    DOE PAGES

    Gao, Huilin; Zhang, Shuai; Fu, Rong; Li, Wenhong; Dickinson, Robert E.

    2016-01-01

    Land surface temperatures (LSTs) within tropical forests contribute to climate variations. However, observational data are very limited in such regions. This study used passive microwave remote sensing data from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS), providing observations under all weather conditions, to investigate the LST over the Amazon and Congo rainforests. The SSM/I and SSMIS data were collected from 1996 to 2012. The morning and afternoon observations from passive microwave remote sensing facilitate the investigation of the interannual changes of LST anomalies on a diurnal basis. As a result of the variability ofmore » cloud cover and the corresponding reduction of solar radiation, the afternoon LST anomalies tend to vary more than the morning LST anomalies. The dominant spatial and temporal patterns for interseasonal variations of the LST anomalies over the tropical rainforest were analyzed. The impacts of droughts and El Niños on this LST were also investigated. Lastly, the differences between early morning and late afternoon LST anomalies were identified by the remote sensing product, with the morning LST anomalies controlled by humidity (according to comparisons with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data).« less

  2. Global assessment of surfing conditions: seasonal, interannual and long-term variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Espejo, A.; Losada, I.; Mendez, F.

    2012-12-01

    International surfing destinations owe a great debt to specific combinations of wind-wave, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. As surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, a multivariable standardized index on the basis of expert judgment is proposed to analyze surf resource in a worldwide domain. Data needed is obtained by combining several datasets (reanalyses): 60-year satellite-calibrated spectral wave hindcast (GOW, WaveWatchIII), wind fields from NCEP/NCAR, global sea surface temperature from ERSST.v3b, and global tides from TPXO7.1. A summary of the global surf resource is presented, which highlights the high degree of variability in surfable events. According to general atmospheric circulation, results show that west facing low to middle latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in Southern Hemisphere. Month to month analysis reveals strong seasonal changes in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing those in North Atlantic or North Pacific. Interannual variability is investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional climate patterns showing a great influence at both, global and regional scales. Analysis of long term trends shows an increase in the probability of surfable events over the west facing coasts on the planet (i.e. + 30 hours/year in California). The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers and surf related stakeholders, coastal planning, education, and basic research.; Figure 1. Global distribution of medium quality (a) and high quality surf conditions probability (b).

  3. Inter-Annual and Decadal Changes in Tropospheric and Stratospheric Ozone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ziemke, Jr. R.; Chandra, S.

    2011-01-01

    Ozone data beginning October 2004 from the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are used to evaluate the accuracy of the Cloud slicing technique in effort to develop long data records of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone and studying their long-term changes. Using this technique, we have produced a 32-year (1979-2010) long record of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone from the combined Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (Toms) and OMI. The analyses of these time series suggest that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the dominant source of inter-annual changes of 30-40 Dobson Units (DU). Tropospheric ozone also indicates a QBO signal in the peak to peak changes varying from 2 to 7 DU. Decadal changes in global stratospheric ozone indicate a turnaround in ozone loss around mid 1990's with most of these changes occurring in the Northern Hemisphere from the subtropics to high latitudes. The trend results are generally consistent with the prediction of chemistry climate models which include the reduction of ozone destroying substances beginning in the late 1980's mandated by the Montreal Protocol.

  4. Interannual variability of the regional CO2 and CH4 fluxes estimated with GOSAT observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maksyutov, Shamil; Takagi, Hiroshi; Kim, Heon-Sook; Saito, Makoto; Mabuchi, Kazuo; Matsunaga, Tsuneo; Ito, Akihiko; Belikov, Dmitry; Oda, Tomohiro; Valsala, Vinu; Morino, Isamu; Yoshida, Yukio; Yokota, Tatsuya

    2014-05-01

    GOSAT Level 4 products - monthly regional surface flux estimates by inverse modeling from CO2 and CH4 GOSAT column-averaged mixing ratios and ground-based observational data using a global atmospheric transport model - have been updated recently to cover the 2-year period starting June 2009. This temporal extension provides look at the interannual flux variability including events of CO2 and CH4 emissions from a large-scale climate anomaly and resultant forest fires in Russia in 2010. Higher emissions of CO2 and CH4 in western Russia in the summer of 2010 are estimated when GOSAT observations are also included in the inverse modeling compared to just using ground-based data. The estimated summer emissions in 2010 are also higher than in the same season of the adjacent years. GOSAT compliments the ground-based networks by observing the concentration response to emissions closer to fire locations, resulting in the inverse models identifying emission regions more accurately. Elsewhere, GOSAT-aided flux estimates point to higher CH4 emissions (compared to ground-based only estimates) in the remote sub-tropical regions of the South America, Africa and South-East Asia. Higher emissions over South America can be attributed to biomass burning and anthropogenic sources, while in South-East Asia those are likely to be caused by agriculture and natural ecosystems.

  5. Inter-annual variation of the surface temperature of tropical forests from SSM/I observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, H.; Fu, R.; Li, W.; Zhang, S.; Dickinson, R. E.

    2014-12-01

    Land surface temperatures (LST) within tropical rain forests contribute to climate variation, but observational data are very limited in these regions. In this study, all weather canopy sky temperatures were retrieved using the passive microwave remote sensing data from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) over the Amazon and Congo rainforests. The remote sensing data used were collected from 1996 to 2012 using two separate satellites—F13 (1996-2009) and F17 (2007-2012). An inter-sensor calibration between the brightness temperatures collected by the two satellites was conducted in order to ensure consistency amongst the instruments. The interannual changes of LST associated with the dry and wet anomalies were investigated in both regions. The dominant spatial and temporal patterns for inter-seasonal variations of the LST over the tropical rainforest were analyzed, and the impacts of droughts and El Niños (on LST) were also investigated. The remote sensing results suggest that the morning LST is mainly controlled by atmospheric humidity (which controls longwave radiation) whereas the late afternoon LST is controlled by solar radiation.

  6. Reanalysis of seasonal and interannual variability of Black Sea fields for 1993–2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korotaev, G. K.; Sarkisyan, A. S.; Knysh, V. V.; Lishaev, P. N.

    2016-07-01

    A retrospective analysis has been done for the hydrophysical fields of the Black Sea for 1993-2012 with the assimilation of undisturbed monthly average profiles of temperature and salinity that were obtained by using an original procedure of joint processing of satellite altimetry and rare hydrological observations. The accuracy of the reconstructed fields of temperature and salinity of the Black Sea is evaluated by comparison with the data of sounding from the hydrological stations and the Argo floats. A comparative analysis is performed for the integral characteristics of the fields of temperature, salinity, and kinetic energy with the same characteristics of the reanalysis for 1992-2012 that assimilated the average annual profiles of temperature and salinity, surface temperature and altimetry level of the sea after being adjusted with respect to climate seasonal variability. The proposed procedure of the reanalysis execution allows a more precise reconstruction of the interannual variability of temperature and salinity stratification in the main pycnocline. The correlation between the annual and seasonal variability of the eddy of the wind friction tangential stress and the average kinetic energy at the levels is revealed.

  7. Interannual variability patterns of the world's total column water content: Amazon River basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bordi, Isabella; De Bonis, Roberto; Fraedrich, Klaus; Sutera, Alfonso

    2015-11-01

    Global trend patterns of yearly mean total column water (TCW) from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 20th century atmosphere model ERA-20CM (1900-2009) and the currently state-of-the-art reanalysis ERA-Interim (1979-2012) show common features of statistically significant upward trends. Of particular interest appears a pronounced regional dipole pattern of interannual climate variability over the South American continent particularly evident in ERA-Interim data. The trend dipole affects two distinct areas: the Andean Amazon basin and the Northeast Brazil. The target regions are characterized by rising and decreasing water content associated with water vapor convergence (divergence) and upward (downward) mass fluxes, respectively. As expected, local water vapor feedback due to local surface temperature change does to not fully explain this TCW trend dipole; other mechanisms may play a role in establishing the observed feature such as moisture transports and monsoon variability in the last decade. The observed trends of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during the period 1982-2005 show an increasing greenness that coincides with the moistening of the atmospheric column in the Amazon basin. These results are substantiated by two single-station ground-based GPS measurements of TCW vapor (TCWV) from the two target regions.

  8. Psychosocial adjustment to recurrent cancer.

    PubMed

    Mahon, S M; Cella, D F; Donovan, M I

    1990-01-01

    This descriptive study of the perceptions and needs of people with recurrent malignancies asks three questions: How do patients describe the meaning of a recurrence of cancer? Do individuals perceive the diagnosis of recurrence and the initial diagnosis of cancer differently? What are the key psychosocial problems associated with recurrent cancer? The theoretical framework was based on Lazarus and Folkman's theory of stress, appraisal, and coping. Subjects completed the Impact of Event Scale (IES), the Psychosocial Adjustment to Illness Scale--Self-Report (PAIS), and a semistructured qualitative interview. The interview elicited perceptions of the event of recurrence and differences between the diagnosis of recurrence and the initial diagnosis. The convenience sample included 40 patients diagnosed with recurrent cancer within the last 30 days. Many subjects (78%) reported that the recurrence was more upsetting than the initial diagnosis. Scores on both the IES and the PAIS were high when compared to normative samples of patients with cancer suggesting that this sample of patients experienced a lot of psychological distress as well as problems at home, work, and in their social lives. These concerns often were unknown to caregivers. Although more research is needed, the authors propose that, with more accurate assessment, more effective intervention could be implemented and the quality of life improved for patients with recurrent cancer.

  9. Interannual to Decadal Variability of Outflow from the Labrador Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Visbeck, M.; Fischer, J.; Zantopp, R.; Nunes, N.

    2010-12-01

    A decade of weak convection in the Labrador Sea associated with decreasing water mass transformation, in combination with advective and eddy fluxes into the convection area, caused significant warming of the deep waters in both the central Labrador Sea and boundary current system along the Labrador shelf break. The connection to the export of Deep Water was studied based on moored current meter stations between 1998 and 2009 at the exit of the Labrador Sea, near the shelf break at 53 ° N. More than 100 year-long current meter records have been analyzed with respect to high frequency variability, decaying from the surface to the bottom layer, and for the annual mean flow, showing intra- to interannual variability but no detectable decadal trend in the strength of the deep and near bottom flow out of the Labrador Sea.

  10. Interannual variability of monthly Southern Ocean sea ice distributions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parkinson, Claire L.

    1992-01-01

    The interannual variability of the Southern-Ocean sea-ice distributions was mapped and analyzed using data from Nimbus-5 ESMR and Nimbus-7 SMMR, collected from 1973 to 1987. The set of 12 monthly maps obtained reveals many details on spatial variability that are unobtainable from time series of ice extents. These maps can be used as baseline maps for comparisons against future Southern Ocean sea ice distributions. The maps are supplemented by more detailed maps of the frequency of ice coverage, presented in this paper for one month within each of the four seasons, and by the breakdown of these results to the periods covered individually by each of the two passive-microwave imagers.

  11. Mean surface water balance over Africa and its interannual variability

    SciTech Connect

    Nicholson, S.E.; Kim, J.; Ba, M.B.; Lare, A.R.

    1997-12-01

    This article presents calculations of surface water balance for the African continent using a revised version of the Lettau climatonomy. Calculations are based on approximately 1400 rainfall stations, with records generally covering 60 yr or longer. Continental maps of evapotranspiration. runoff, and soil moisture are derived for January, July, and the annual mean. The model is also used to provide a gross estimate of the interannual variability of these parameters over most of the continent and local water balance calculations for a variety of locations in Africa. The results are compared with four other comprehensive global water balance studies. The results of this study are being used to produce a gridded dataset for the continent, with potential applications for numerical modeling studies. 50 refs., 18 figs., 3 tabs.

  12. Abemaciclib in Children With DIPG or Recurrent/Refractory Solid Tumors

    ClinicalTrials.gov

    2016-04-12

    Diffuse Intrinsic Pontine Glioma; Brain Tumor, Recurrent; Solid Tumor, Recurrent; Neuroblastoma, Recurrent, Refractory; Ewing Sarcoma, Recurrent, Refractory; Rhabdomyosarcoma, Recurrent, Refractory; Osteosarcoma, Recurrent, Refractory; Rhabdoid Tumor, Recurrent, Refractory

  13. Interannual Variability in PMCs from AIM/CIPS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Randall, C. E.; Harvey, V. L.; Holt, L. A.; Lumpe, J. D., Jr.; Bailey, S. M.; Russell, J. M., III

    2014-12-01

    The NASA Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) mission has measured polar mesospheric cloud (PMC) parameters since May of 2007, including eight PMC seasons in the northern hemisphere (NH) and seven in the southern hemisphere (SH). In this presentation we describe interannual variations in the clouds as measured by the AIM Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) instrument, and relate these to measurements of temperature and water vapor from the NASA Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instruments. Overall, interannual variability is larger in the SH than in the NH. In both hemispheres, there is significant variability from season to season in the season onset, with somewhat less variability in the season end. There is about a 20-day spread in the season onset dates in the NH; the NH 2013 season was the earliest, and began a week earlier than any other NH season. In mid-season the NH PMC frequencies were generally highest in 2011, 2013 and 2014, and lowest in 2007 and 2009, but with substantial day-to-day variations that increase with decreasing latitude. In the SH, the earliest season onsets occurred in 2009-2010, 2012-2013, and 2013-2014, which started about a month earlier than 2010-2011 and 2011-2012. The SH 2009-2010 season continued to show more PMCs than any other season throughout the summer, whereas PMC frequencies in the 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 seasons dropped to average values in mid-January. These results will be discussed in terms of teleconnections and solar cycle effects.

  14. SCIAMACHY CO over the oceans: 2003-2007 interannual variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gloudemans, A. M. S.; de Laat, A. T. J.; Schrijver, H.; Aben, I.; Meirink, J. F.; van der Werf, G. R.

    2009-03-01

    We present a new method to obtain accurate SCIAMACHY CO columns over clouded ocean scenes. Based on an improved version of the Iterative Maximum Likelihood Method (IMLM) retrieval algorithm, we now have retrieved five years of data over both land and clouded ocean scenes between 2003 and 2007. The ocean-cloud method uses the CH4 columns retrieved simultaneously with the CO columns to determine the cloud top height. The CH4 cloud top height is in good agreement with the FRESCO+ cloud top height determined from UV-VIS oxygen-A band measurements, providing confidence that the CH4 cloud top height is a good diagnostic of the cloud top height over (partially) clouded ocean scenes. The CO measurements over clouded ocean scenes have been compared with collocated modeled CO columns over the same clouds and agree well. Using clouded ocean scenes quadruples the number of useful CO measurements compared to land-only measurements. The five-year CO data set over land and clouded ocean scenes presented here is based on an improved version of the IMLM algorithm which includes a more accurate determination of the random instrument-noise error for CO. This leads to a smaller spread in the differences between single CO measurements and the corresponding model values. The new version, IMLM version 7.4, also uses updated spectroscopic parameters for H2O and CH4 but this has only a minor impact on the retrieved CO columns. The five-year data set shows significant interannual variability over land and over clouded ocean scenes. Three examples are highlighted: the Asian outflow of pollution over the northern Pacific, the biomass-burning outflow over the Indian Ocean originating from Indonesia, and biomass burning in Brazil. In general there is good agreement between observed and modeled seasonal cycles and interannual variability.

  15. Interannual Variation in Stand Transpiration is Dependent Upon Tree Species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ewers, B. E.; Mackay, D. S.; Burrows, S. N.; Ahl, D. E.; Samanta, S.

    2003-12-01

    In order to successfully predict transpirational water fluxes from forested watersheds, interannual variability in transpiration must be quantified and understood. In a heterogeneous forested landscape in northern Wisconsin, we quantified stand transpiration across four forest cover types representing more than 80 percent of the land area in order to 1) quantify differences in stand transpiration and leaf area over two years and 2) determine the mechanisms governing the changes in transpiration over two years. We measured sap flux in eight trees of each tree species in the four cover types. We found that in northern hardwoods, the leaf area of sugar maple increased between the two measurement years with transpiration per unit ground area increasing even more than could be explained by leaf area. In an aspen stand, tent caterpillars completely defoliated the stand for approximately a month until a new set of leaves flushed out. The new set of leaves resulted in a lower leaf area but the same transpiration per unit leaf area indicating there was no physiological compensation for the lower leaf area. At the same time, balsam fir growing underneath the aspen increased their transpiration rate in response to greater light penetration through the dominant aspen canopy Red pine had a thirty percent change in leaf area within a growing season due to multiple cohorts of leaves and transpiration followed this leaf area dynamic. In a forested wetland, white cedar transpiration was proportional to surface water depth between the two years. Despite the specific tree species' effects on stand transpiration, all species displayed a minimum water potential regulation resulting in a saturating response of transpiration to vapor pressure deficit that did not vary across the two years. This physiological set point will allow future water flux models to explain mechanistically interannual variability in transpiration of this and similar forests.

  16. Seasonal and interannual temperature variations in the tropical stratosphere

    SciTech Connect

    Reid, G.C.

    1994-09-20

    Temperature variations in the tropical lower and middle stratosphere are influenced by at least five distinct driving forces. These are (1) the mechanism of the regular seasonal cycle, (2) the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in zonal winds, (3) the semiannual zonal wind oscillation (SAO) at higher levels, (4) El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects driven by the underlying troposphere, and (5) radiative effects, including volcanic aerosol heating. Radiosonde measurements of temperatures from a number of tropical stations, mostly in the western Pacific region, are used in this paper to examine the characteristic annual and interannual temperature variability in the stratosphere below the 10-hPa pressure level ({approximately} 31 km) over a time period of 17 years, chosen to eliminate or at least minimize the effect of volcanic eruptions. Both annual and interannual variations are found to show a fairly distinct transition between the lower and the middle stratosphere at about the 35-hPa level ({approximately} 23 km). The lower stratosphere, below this transition level, is strongly influenced by the ENSO cycle as well as by the QBO. The overall result of the interaction is to modulate the amplitude of the normal stratospheric seasonal cycle and to impose a biennial component on it, so that alternate seasonal cycles are stronger or weaker than normal. Additional modulation by the ENSO cycle occurs at its quasi-period of 3-5 years, giving rise to a complex net behavior. In the middle stratosphere above the transition level, there is no discernible ENSO influence, and departures from the regular semiannual seasonal cycle are dominated by the QBO. Recent ideas on the underlying physical mechanisms governing these variations are discussed, as is the relationship of the radiosonde measurements to recent satellite remote-sensing observations. 37 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

  17. Interannual and interdecadal oscillation patterns in sea level

    SciTech Connect

    Unal, Y.S.; Ghil, M.

    1995-07-01

    Relative sea-level height (RSLH) data at 213 tide-gauge stations have been analyzed on a monthly an an annual basis to study interannual and interdecadal oscillations. The main tools of the study are similar spectrum analysis (SSA) and multichannel SSA (M-SSA). Very-low-frequency variability of RSLH was filtered by SSA to estimate the linear trend at each station. Global sea-level rise, after post-glacial rebound corrections, has been found to equal 1.62{+-}0.38 mm/y, by averaging over 175 stations. The study identified two dominant time scales of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, quasi-biennial and low-frequency, in the RSLH data at almost all stations. However, the amplitudes of both ENSO signals are higher in the equatorial Pacific and along the west coast of North America. Throughout the Pacific, the study found three dominant spatio-temporal oscillatory patterns, associated with time scales of ENSO variability; their periods are 2.2.5-3 and 4-6 y. Strong and weak El Nino years are evident in the sea-level time series reconstructed from the quasi-biennial and low-frequency modes. Interannual variability with periods of 3 and 4-8 y is detected in the Atlantic RSLH data. In the eastern Atlantic region, we have found slow propagation of both modes northward and southward, away from 40-45{degrees}N. Interdecadal oscillations were studied using 81 stations with sufficiently long and continuous records. Most of these have variability at 9-13 and some at 18 y. Two significant eigenmode pairs, corresponding to periods of 11.6 and 12.8 y, are found in the eastern and western Atlantic ocean at latitudes 40{degrees}N-70{degrees}N and 10{degrees}N-50{degrees}N, respectively. 60 refs., 23 figs., 3 tabs.

  18. Species differences in evergreen tree transpiration at daily, seasonal, and interannual timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Link, P.; Simonin, K. A.; Oshun, J.; Dietrich, W.; Dawson, T. E.; Fung, I.

    2012-12-01

    Mediterranean climates have rainy winter and dry summer seasons, so the season of water availability (winter) is out of phase with the season of light availability and atmospheric demand (summer). In this study, we investigate the seasonality of tree transpiration in a Mediterranean climate, using observations from a small (8000 m2), forested, steep (~35 degree) hillslope at the UC Angelo Reserve, in the northern California Coast Range. The site is instrumented with over 850 sensors transmitting hydrologic and meteorological data at less than 30-minute intervals. Here, we analyze four years of high-frequency measurements from 45 sap flow sensors in 30 trees, six depth profiles of soil moisture measured by TDR, and spatially distributed measurements of air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, and other meteorological variables. The sap flow measurements show a difference in transpiration seasonality between common California Coast Range evergreen tree species. Douglas firs (Pseudotsuga menziesii) maintain significant transpiration through the winter rainy season and transpire maximally in the spring, but Douglas fir transpiration declines sharply in the summer dry season. Madrones (Arbutus menziesii), in contrast, transpire maximally in the summer dry season. The seasonal patterns are quantified using principal component analysis. Nonlinear regressions against environmental variables show that the difference in transpiration seasonality arises from different sensitivities to atmospheric demand (VPD) and root-zone moisture. The different sensitivities to VPD and root-zone moisture cause species differences not just in seasonal patterns, but also in high temporal frequency (daily to weekly) variability of transpiration. We also contrast the interannual variability of dry season transpiration among the different species, and show that precipitation above a threshold triggers a Douglas fir response. Finally, we use a simple 1-D model of the atmospheric

  19. Interannual variability of the atmospheric CO2 growth rate: roles of precipitation and temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jun; Zeng, Ning; Wang, Meirong

    2016-04-01

    The interannual variability (IAV) in atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) is closely connected with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. However, sensitivities of CGR to temperature and precipitation remain largely uncertain. This paper analyzed the relationship between Mauna Loa CGR and tropical land climatic elements. We find that Mauna Loa CGR lags precipitation by 4 months with a correlation coefficient of -0.63, leads temperature by 1 month (0.77), and correlates with soil moisture (-0.65) with zero lag. Additionally, precipitation and temperature are highly correlated (-0.66), with precipitation leading by 4-5 months. Regression analysis shows that sensitivities of Mauna Loa CGR to temperature and precipitation are 2.92 ± 0.20 PgC yr-1 K-1 and -0.46 ± 0.07 PgC yr-1 100 mm-1, respectively. Unlike some recent suggestions, these empirical relationships favor neither temperature nor precipitation as the dominant factor of CGR IAV. We further analyzed seven terrestrial carbon cycle models, from the TRENDY project, to study the processes underlying CGR IAV. All models capture well the IAV of tropical land-atmosphere carbon flux (CFTA). Sensitivities of the ensemble mean CFTA to temperature and precipitation are 3.18 ± 0.11 PgC yr-1 K-1 and -0.67 ± 0.04 PgC yr-1 100 mm-1, close to Mauna Loa CGR. Importantly, the models consistently show the variability in net primary productivity (NPP) dominates CGR, rather than heterotrophic respiration. Because previous studies have proved that NPP is largely driven by precipitation in tropics, it suggests a key role of precipitation in CGR IAV despite the higher CGR correlation with temperature. Understanding the relative contribution of CO2 sensitivity to precipitation and temperature has important implications for future carbon-climate feedback using such ''emergent constraint''.

  20. Recurrent ovarian cancer.

    PubMed

    Pujade-Lauraine, E; Combe, P

    2016-04-01

    Recurrence still occurs in a majority of patients with advanced ovarian cancer. However, progress in the management has allowed a significant prolongation of survival for relapsing disease. These last years, the field of interest has moved from chemotherapy to targeted therapy which is dominated by anti-angiogenic and anti-PARP agents. It is assumed that platinum-free interval will not remain the main prognostic and predictive criterion in the future, and will be replaced by a multi-factorial approach. This trend for personalization of therapy has highlighted important neglected fields for clinical research such as multi-line (≥3) relapse, frail patients including elderly and symptomatic and supportive measures. PMID:27141075

  1. Recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis.

    PubMed

    Sobel, Jack D

    2016-01-01

    Recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis (RVVC) is a common cause of significant morbidity in women in all strata of society affecting millions of women worldwide. Previously, RVVC occurrence was limited by onset of menopause but the widespread use of hormone replacement therapy has extended the at-risk period. Candida albicans remains the dominant species responsible for RVVC, however optimal management of RVVC requires species determination and effective treatment measures are best if species-specific. Considerable progress has been made in understanding risk factors that determine susceptibility to RVVC, particularly genetic factors, as well as new insights into normal vaginal defense immune mechanisms and their aberrations in RVVC. While effective control of RVVC is achievable with the use of fluconazole maintenance suppressive therapy, cure of RVVC remains elusive especially in this era of fluconazole drug resistance. Vaccine development remains a critical challenge and need.

  2. Landslide occurrences and recurrence intervals of heavy rainfalls in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saito, H.; Uchida, T.; Matsuyama, H.; Korup, O.

    2015-12-01

    Dealing with predicted increases in extreme weather conditions due to climate change requires robust knowledge about controls on rainfall-triggered landslides. This study developed the probable rainfall database from weather radar data, and analyzed the potential correlation between the landslide magnitude-frequency and the recurrence interval of the heavy rainfall across Japan. We analyzed 4,744 rainfall-induced landslides (Saito et al., 2014, Geology), 1 to 72 h rainfalls, and soil water index (SWI). We then estimated recurrence intervals for these rainfall parameters using a Gumbel distribution with jackknife fitting. Results showed that the recurrence intervals of rainfall events which caused landslides (<10^3 m^3) were less than 10 yr across Japan. The recurrence intervals increased with increases in landslide volumes. With regard to the landslides larger than 10^5 m^3, recurrence intervals of the rainfall events were more than 100 yr. These results suggest that recurrence intervals of heavy rainfalls are important for assessing regional landslide hazard in Japan.

  3. Topographic position modulates the mycorrhizal response of oak trees to interannual rainfall variability.

    PubMed

    Querejeta, José I; Egerton-Warburton, Louise M; Allen, Michael F

    2009-03-01

    California coast live oak (Quercus agrifolia) forms tripartite symbiotic associations with arbuscular (AMF) and ectomycorrhizal (EMF) fungi. We selected oak individuals differing in topographic position and depth to groundwater (mesic valley vs. xeric hill sites) to investigate changes of tree mycorrhizal status in response to interannual rainfall variability. EMF root colonization, as well as hyphal abundance and viability in upper rhizosphere soil (0-30 cm), were negatively affected by severe multi-year drought, although not to the same extent in each topographic location. Oak trees growing in hill sites showed EMF colonization levels <1% in upper roots during drought. By contrast, oaks in valley sites maintained much higher EMF colonization (>19%) in upper roots during drought. EMF root colonization increased sharply at both topographic positions during the ensuing wet year (78% in valley, 49% in hill), which indicates that the mycorrhizal status of roots in upper rhizosphere soil is highly responsive to interannual rainfall variability. Across sites and years, percentage EMF colonization and soil hyphal density and viability were strongly positively correlated with soil moisture potential, but percentage AMF root colonization was not. Interestingly, changes in percentage EMF root colonization and density of viable hyphae between a wet and a dry year were proportionally much greater in xeric hill sites than in mesic valley sites. The mycorrhizal status of oak trees was particularly responsive to changes in soil moisture at the hill sites, where roots in upper rhizosphere soil shifted from almost exclusively AMF during severe drought to predominantly EMF during the ensuing wet year. By contrast, the mycorrhizal status of oaks in the valley sites was less strongly coupled to current meteorological conditions, as roots in upper soil layers remained predominantly EMF during both a dry and a wet year. Canopy shading and hydraulic lift by oaks in valley sites likely

  4. East Asian Monsoon controls on the inter-annual variability in precipitation isotope ratio in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurita, N.; Fujiyoshi, Y.; Nakayama, T.; Matsumi, Y.; Kitagawa, H.

    2015-02-01

    To elucidate the mechanism for how the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) variability have influenced the isotope proxy records in Japan, we explore the primary driver of variations of precipitation isotopes at multiple temporal scales (event, seasonal and inter-annual scales). Using a new 1-year record of the isotopic composition of event-based precipitation and continuous near-surface water vapor at Nagoya in central Japan, we identify the key atmospheric processes controlling the storm-to-storm isotopic variations through an analysis of air mass sources and rainout history during the transport of moisture to the site, and then apply the identified processes to explain the inter-annual isotopic variability related to the EAM variability in the historical 17-year long Tokyo station record in the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP). In the summer, southerly flows transport moisture with higher isotopic values from subtropical marine regions and bring warm rainfall enriched with heavy isotopes. The weak monsoon summer corresponds to enriched isotopic values in precipitation, reflecting higher contribution of warm rainfall to the total summer precipitation. In the strong monsoon summer, the sustaining Baiu rainband along the southern coast of Japan prevents moisture transport across Japan, so that the contribution of warm rainfall is reduced. In the winter, storm tracks are the dominant driver of storm-to-storm isotopic variation and relatively low isotopic values occur when a cold frontal rainband associated with extratropical cyclones passes off to the south of the Japan coast. The weak monsoon winter is characterized by lower isotopes in precipitation, due to the distribution of the cyclone tracks away from the southern coast of Japan. In contrast, the northward shift of the cyclone tracks and stronger development of cyclones during the strong monsoon winters decrease the contribution of cold frontal precipitation, resulting in higher isotopic values in

  5. Inter-annual variability and long term predictability of exchanges through the Strait of Gibraltar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boutov, Dmitri; Peliz, Álvaro; Miranda, Pedro M. A.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Cardoso, Rita M.; Prieto, Laura; Ruiz, Javier; García-Lafuente, Jesus

    2014-03-01

    Inter-annual variability of calculated barotropic (netflow) and simulated baroclinic (inflow and outflow) exchanges through the Strait of Gibraltar is analyzed and their response to the main modes of atmospheric variability is investigated. Time series of the outflow obtained by high resolution simulations and estimated from in-situ Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) current measurements are compared. The time coefficients (TC) of the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes that describe zonal atmospheric circulation in the vicinity of the Strait (1st and 3rd of Sea-Level Pressure (SLP) and 1st of the wind) show significant covariance with the inflow and outflow. Based on these analyses, a regression model between these SLP TCs and outflow of the Mediterranean Water was developed. This regression outflow time series was compared with estimates based on current meter observations and the predictability and reconstruction of past exchange variability based on atmospheric pressure fields are discussed. The simple regression model seems to reproduce the outflow evolution fairly reasonably, with the exception of the year 2008, which is apparently anomalous without available physical explanation yet. The exchange time series show a reduced inter-annual variability (less than 1%, 2.6% and 3.1% of total 2-day variability, for netflow, inflow and outflow, respectively). From a statistical point of view no clear long-term tendencies were revealed. Anomalously high baroclinic fluxes are reported for the years of 2000-2001 that are coincident with strong impact on the Alboran Sea ecosystem. The origin of the anomalous flow is associated with a strong negative anomaly (~ - 9 hPa) in atmospheric pressure fields settled north of Iberian Peninsula and extending over the central Atlantic, favoring an increased zonal circulation in winter 2000/2001. These low pressure fields forced intense and durable westerly winds in the Gulf of Cadiz-Alboran system. The signal of

  6. Hydroclimate of the Western United States Based on Observations and Regional Climate Simulations of 1981-2000. Part II: Mesoscale ENSO Anomalies

    SciTech Connect

    Leung, Lai R.; Qian, Yun; Bian, Xindi; Hunt, Allen G.

    2003-06-15

    Regional climate of the western U.S. shows clear footprints of interactions between atmospheric circulation and orography. The unique features of the diverse climate regimes challenge climate modeling. These papers provide detailed analyses of observations and regional climate simulations to improve our understanding and modeling of regional climate of the region. Part II focuses on evaluation of simulated interannual climate variability associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

  7. Interannual Variations in Ecosystem Oxidative Ratio in Croplands, Deciduous Forest, Coniferous Forest, and Early Successional Forest Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masiello, C. A.; Hockaday, W. C.; Gallagher, M. E.; Calligan, L.

    2009-12-01

    Ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP) can vary significantly with annual variations in precipitation and temperature. These climate variations can also drive changes in plant carbon allocation patterns. Shifting allocation patterns can lead to variation in net ecosystem biochemical stocks (e.g. kg cellulose, lignin, protein, and lipid/ha), which can in turn lead to shifts in ecosystem oxidative ratio (OR). OR is the molar ratio of O2 released : CO2 fixed during biosynthesis. Major plant biochemicals vary substantially in oxidative ratio, ranging from average organic acid OR values of 0.75 to average lipid OR values of 1.37 (Masiello et al., 2008). OR is a basic property of ecosystem biochemistry, and is also an essential variable needed to constrain the size of the terrestrial biospheric carbon sink (Keeling et al., 1996). OR is commonly assumed to be 1.10 (e.g. Prentice et al., 2001), but small variations in net ecosystem OR can drive large errors in estimates of the size of the terrestrial carbon sink (Randerson et al., 2006). We hypothesized that interannual changes in climate may drive interannual variation in ecosystem OR values. Working at Kellogg Biological Station NSF LTER, we measured the annual average OR of coniferous and deciduous forests, an early successional forest, and croplands under both corn and soy. There are clear distinctions between individual ecosystems (e.g., the soy crops have a higher OR than the corn crops, and the coniferous forests have a higher OR than the deciduous forests), but the ecosystems themselves retained remarkably constant annual OR values between 1998 and 2008.

  8. Not all droughts are created equal: the impacts of interannual drought pattern and magnitude on grassland carbon cycling.

    PubMed

    Hoover, David L; Rogers, Brendan M

    2016-05-01

    Climate extremes, such as drought, may have immediate and potentially prolonged effects on carbon cycling. Grasslands store approximately one-third of all terrestrial carbon and may become carbon sources during droughts. However, the magnitude and duration of drought-induced disruptions to the carbon cycle, as well as the mechanisms responsible, remain poorly understood. Over the next century, global climate models predict an increase in two types of drought: chronic but subtle 'press-droughts', and shorter term but extreme 'pulse-droughts'. Much of our current understanding of the ecological impacts of drought comes from experimental rainfall manipulations. These studies have been highly valuable, but are often short term and rarely quantify carbon feedbacks. To address this knowledge gap, we used the Community Land Model 4.0 to examine the individual and interactive effects of pulse- and press-droughts on carbon cycling in a mesic grassland of the US Great Plains. A series of modeling experiments were imposed by varying drought magnitude (precipitation amount) and interannual pattern (press- vs. pulse-droughts) to examine the effects on carbon storage and cycling at annual to century timescales. We present three main findings. First, a single-year pulse-drought had immediate and prolonged effects on carbon storage due to differential sensitivities of ecosystem respiration and gross primary production. Second, short-term pulse-droughts caused greater carbon loss than chronic press-droughts when total precipitation reductions over a 20-year period were equivalent. Third, combining pulse- and press-droughts had intermediate effects on carbon loss compared to the independent drought types, except at high drought levels. Overall, these results suggest that interannual drought pattern may be as important for carbon dynamics as drought magnitude and that extreme droughts may have long-lasting carbon feedbacks in grassland ecosystems. PMID:26568424

  9. Not all droughts are created equal: the impacts of interannual drought pattern and magnitude on grassland carbon cycling.

    PubMed

    Hoover, David L; Rogers, Brendan M

    2016-05-01

    Climate extremes, such as drought, may have immediate and potentially prolonged effects on carbon cycling. Grasslands store approximately one-third of all terrestrial carbon and may become carbon sources during droughts. However, the magnitude and duration of drought-induced disruptions to the carbon cycle, as well as the mechanisms responsible, remain poorly understood. Over the next century, global climate models predict an increase in two types of drought: chronic but subtle 'press-droughts', and shorter term but extreme 'pulse-droughts'. Much of our current understanding of the ecological impacts of drought comes from experimental rainfall manipulations. These studies have been highly valuable, but are often short term and rarely quantify carbon feedbacks. To address this knowledge gap, we used the Community Land Model 4.0 to examine the individual and interactive effects of pulse- and press-droughts on carbon cycling in a mesic grassland of the US Great Plains. A series of modeling experiments were imposed by varying drought magnitude (precipitation amount) and interannual pattern (press- vs. pulse-droughts) to examine the effects on carbon storage and cycling at annual to century timescales. We present three main findings. First, a single-year pulse-drought had immediate and prolonged effects on carbon storage due to differential sensitivities of ecosystem respiration and gross primary production. Second, short-term pulse-droughts caused greater carbon loss than chronic press-droughts when total precipitation reductions over a 20-year period were equivalent. Third, combining pulse- and press-droughts had intermediate effects on carbon loss compared to the independent drought types, except at high drought levels. Overall, these results suggest that interannual drought pattern may be as important for carbon dynamics as drought magnitude and that extreme droughts may have long-lasting carbon feedbacks in grassland ecosystems.

  10. Not all droughts are created equal: The impacts of interannual drought pattern and magnitude on grassland carbon cycling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hoover, David L; Rogers, Brendan M.

    2016-01-01

    Climate extremes, such as drought, may have immediate and potentially prolonged effects on carbon cycling. Grasslands store approximately one-third of all terrestrial carbon and may become carbon sources during droughts. However, the magnitude and duration of drought-induced disruptions to the carbon cycle, as well as the mechanisms responsible, remain poorly understood. Over the next century, global climate models predict an increase in two types of drought: chronic but subtle ‘press-droughts’, and shorter term but extreme ‘pulse-droughts’. Much of our current understanding of the ecological impacts of drought comes from experimental rainfall manipulations. These studies have been highly valuable, but are often short term and rarely quantify carbon feedbacks. To address this knowledge gap, we used the Community Land Model 4.0 to examine the individual and interactive effects of pulse- and press-droughts on carbon cycling in a mesic grassland of the US Great Plains. A series of modeling experiments were imposed by varying drought magnitude (precipitation amount) and interannual pattern (press- vs. pulse-droughts) to examine the effects on carbon storage and cycling at annual to century timescales. We present three main findings. First, a single-year pulse-drought had immediate and prolonged effects on carbon storage due to differential sensitivities of ecosystem respiration and gross primary production. Second, short-term pulse-droughts caused greater carbon loss than chronic press-droughts when total precipitation reductions over a 20-year period were equivalent. Third, combining pulse- and press-droughts had intermediate effects on carbon loss compared to the independent drought types, except at high drought levels. Overall, these results suggest that interannual drought pattern may be as important for carbon dynamics as drought magnitude and that extreme droughts may have long-lasting carbon feedbacks in grassland ecosystems.

  11. Effect of non-homogeneity in flux footprint on the interpretation of seasonal, annual, and interannual ecosystem carbon exchange

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griebel, A.; Bennett, L. T.; Metzen, D.; Cleverly, J. R.; Burba, G. G.; Arndt, S. K.

    2015-12-01

    Carbon flux measurements using the eddy covariance method rely on several assumptions, including reasonably uniform terrain and homogenous vegetation. These are not always possible in complex terrain, structurally variable native vegetation or in disturbed ecosystems. Consequently, an increasing number of flux sites are located over not fully homogeneous areas. This implies that observed year-to-year variations in CO2 budgets may not always be related only to changes in the key driving factors such as weather, canopy state and physiology, but may also be affected by differences in the flux footprints between years. This may bias budget estimates over many locations, since a large number of flux sites are affected by wind channelling, contrasting climatic conditions with wind direction (e.g. maritime sites) and by variations of continental-scale climate patterns that modify prevailing wind directions. We tested the effects of a non-homogeneous footprint on annual carbon estimates for an evergreen forest, where the combination of terrain, weather and anthropogenic management shaped the local forest structure. Interactions among these factors caused the key drivers regulating carbon fluxes (such as LAI, temperature, VPD and turbulence) to vary significantly with wind direction, and their combinations resulted in pronounced carbon sequestration 'hotspots' that impacted instantaneous fluxes. These were most distinctive during the summer months, and they varied in extent and magnitude depending on prevailing weather. Consequently, interannual variations in footprints affected up to 18.9% of seasonal estimates during the summer months, and up to 23.1% of annual carbon budget estimates. The footprint-related bias was largest at 48.7% under 'ideal' uptake conditions (clear sky, mid-day during summer). We further present a procedure to recognise and quantify the apparent interannual variations in carbon estimates attributable to year-to-year variations in flux footprint.

  12. The role of C3 and C4 grasses to interannual variability in remotely sensed ecosystem performance over the US Great Plains

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ricotta, C.; Reed, Bradley C.; Tieszen, Larry L.

    2003-01-01

    Time integrated normalized difference vegetation index (ΣNDVI) derived from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) multi-temporal imagery over a 10-year period (1989–1998) was used as a surrogate for primary production to investigate the impact of interannual climate variability on grassland performance for central and northern US Great Plains. First, the contribution of C3 and C4 species abundance to the major grassland ecosystems of the US Great Plains is described. Next, the relation between mean ΣNDVI and the ΣNDVI coefficient of variation (CV ΣNDVI) used as a proxy for interannual climate variability is analysed. Results suggest that the differences in the long-term climatic control over ecosystem performance approximately coincide with changes between C3- and C4-dominant grassland classes. Variation in remotely sensed net primary production over time is higher for the southern and western plains grasslands (primarily C4 grasslands), whereas the C3-dominated classes in the northern and eastern portion of the US Great Plains, generally show lower CV ΣNDVI values.

  13. Evaluating the SPCZ interannual changes with both instrumental and coral-derived SSS data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dassie, E. P.; Linsley, B. K.; Delcroix, T.; Howe, S.

    2010-12-01

    The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), extending diagonally from Papua New Guinea to about 30°S-120°W, is a major climatic feature of the south-west tropical Pacific. It shifts north and east (south and west) of its average position during austral winter and El Niño (austral summer and La Niña), passing over the islands of Fiji (17°S-179°E) and Tonga (20°S-175°W) with well-marked regional signature in Precipitation (P) and Sea Surface Salinity (SSS). Previous analyses of instrumental sea surface temperature (SST), (SSS), and P records in the SPCZ indicate that the amplitude of the ENSO signal is about one order of magnitude less than the amplitude of the seasonal signal for SST, whereas it is about twice as much for SSS. Focusing on the ENSO variability, we compare the SSS difference between Fiji and Tonga, first using 1958-2008 instrumental data, in order to analyze the horizontal displacements of the SPCZ . As expected, we observe that SSS at the two sites varies on interannual time scales; with peak-to-peak variations of as much as 1.5 pss between El Niño and La Niña events. Interestingly, the SSS difference between the two sites, used as a measure of the regional SSS front, also varies on interannual timescales. The SSS difference increases during La Niña events when the salinity front shifts SE as the South Equatorial Current (SEC) weakens and the zone of maximum P in the SPCZ moves over Fiji, making Fiji fresher than Tonga. In contrast, the SSS difference decreases during El Niño events, when the SEC advects higher salinity water from the east and the SPCZ shifts NE making the SSS difference between Fiji and Tonga close to zero. Quantifying the SSS difference between Fiji and Tonga thus appears as a useful way to reconstruct past ENSO activity in the southwest tropical Pacific We applied this differencing approach to regional coral δ18O records. The δ18O of coral is a function of both SST and δ18Osw; although the interannual SST signal at

  14. Delineating recurrent fish spawning habitats in the North Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lelièvre, S.; Vaz, S.; Martin, C. S.; Loots, C.

    2014-08-01

    The functional value of spawning habitats makes them critically important for the completion of fish life cycles and spawning grounds are now considered to be “essential habitats”. Inter-annual fluctuations in spawning ground distributions of dab (Limanda Limanda), plaice (Pleuronectes platessa), cod (Gadus morhua) and whiting (Merlangius merlangus) were investigated in the southern North Sea and eastern English Channel, from 2006 to 2009. The preferential spawning habitats of these species were modelled using generalised linear models, with egg distribution being used as proxy of spawners' location. Egg spatial and temporal distributions were explored based on six environmental variables: sea surface temperature and salinity, chlorophyll a concentration, depth, bedstress and seabed sediment types. In most cases, egg density was found to be strongly related to these environmental variables. Egg densities were positively correlated with shallow to intermediate depths having low temperature and relatively high salinity. Habitat models were used to map annual, i.e. 2006 to 2009, winter spatial distributions of eggs, for each species separately. Then, annual maps were combined to explore the spatial variability of each species' spawning grounds, and define recurrent, occasional, rare and unfavourable spawning areas. The recurrent spawning grounds of all four species were located in the south-eastern part of the study area, mainly along the Dutch and German coasts. This study contributes knowledge necessary to the spatial management of fishery resources in the area, and may also be used to identify marine areas with particular habitat features that need to be preserved.

  15. Interannual water level variations in Lake Izabal, Guatemala, Centroamerica, using radar altimetry and its relationship with oceanographic features

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medina, C.; Gomez-Enri, J.; Alonso, J.; Villares, P.; Arias, M.; Catalan, M.; Labrador, I.

    2007-10-01

    It is well known that ocean-atmosphere dynamic affects the weather conditions over the continents and the ocean itself. The hydrologic cycle is driven by climatic parameters like precipitation, temperature, evaporation, winds and humidity. Hence, the river's water discharges and lake water level variations are impelled by climatic conditions also. Lake Izabal is the largest one in Guatemala; its main tributary is the Polochic River. Its level is related to the Polochic Rivers runoff and therefore to the precipitation/evaporation over its catchment area. The Lake Izabal water level fluctuations are driven by the annual cycle of rainy and dry seasons. In this study the ENVISAT RA-2 Geophysical Data Records orbits over the lake, coupled with in-situ measurements are used in order to determine and characterize the lake level fluctuations. The precipitation records over the lake's catchment area are also analyzed. In addition, some relationships of the lake level interannual variations with the climate indexes of Southern Oscillation Index SOI and the Tropical North Atlantic NATL were investigated. The main result is that the abrupt lake level rise in July 2006 is correlated to an abnormal precipitation in June 2006. Theoretically, this was forced by "La Nina" Southern Oscillation events during early 2006.

  16. Recurrence plots and recurrence quantification analysis of human motion data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Josiński, Henryk; Michalczuk, Agnieszka; Świtoński, Adam; Szczesna, Agnieszka; Wojciechowski, Konrad

    2016-06-01

    The authors present exemplary application of recurrence plots, cross recurrence plots and recurrence quantification analysis for the purpose of exploration of experimental time series describing selected aspects of human motion. Time series were extracted from treadmill gait sequences which were recorded in the Human Motion Laboratory (HML) of the Polish-Japanese Academy of Information Technology in Bytom, Poland by means of the Vicon system. Analysis was focused on the time series representing movements of hip, knee, ankle and wrist joints in the sagittal plane.

  17. Interdecadal and Interannual Variability of Winter Precipitation in Southeast China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, L.; Fraedrich, K.; Zhu, X.; Sielmann, F.

    2013-12-01

    Interdecadal variability of observed winter (DJF) precipitation in Southeast China (1961 to 2010) is characterized by the first EOF of the three-monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) subjected to a 9-year running mean, while the differences from the original describe the interannual fluctuations. For interdecadal time scales the dominating spatial modes represent monopole features over Southeast China involving the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over western Pacific. Dynamic composite analysis (based on NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyzes) reveals the following results: (i) Interdecadal SPI-variations show a trend from a dryer state in the 1970s via an increase during the 1980s towards stabilization of wetter conditions commencing with the 1990s. (ii) In mid-to-high latitudes the weakened southward flow of polar airmasses induces low-level warming over Eurasia due to stronger Arctic Oscillation (AO) by warmer zonal temperature advection. This indicates that the precipitation increase in Southeast is attributed circulation anomalies over mid-to-high latitudes which are related to AO. (iii) The abnormal moisture flux along the southwestern boundary of the abnormal anticyclone over south Japan (and its anomalous south-easterlies) is modulated by the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over Western Pacific; a positive (negative) SST anomaly will strengthen (weaken) the warm and moist air flow, leading to abundant (less) precipitation in Southeast China. This demonstrates the collaborative effect of AO and SST anomalies in determining the nonlinear trend observed in winter precipitation over Southeast China. For interannual time scales the dominating spatial pattern also represents monopole patterns. Composite analysis (with resampling test) of the associated circulation anomalies reveals the following results: (i) The wet (dry) winter is a result of the strengthened (weakened) northward warm moist air over east coast of

  18. Hydrologic Response to Climate Variability, Climate Change, and Climate Extreme in the U.S.: Climate Model Evaluation and Projections

    SciTech Connect

    Leung, Lai R.; Qian, Yun

    2005-08-01

    Water resources are sensitive to climate variability and change; predictions of seasonal to interannual climate variations and projections of long-term climate trends can provide significant values in managing water resources. This study examines the control (1975–1995) and future (1995–2100) climate simulated by a global climate model (GCM) and a regional climate simulation driven by the GCM control simulation for the U.S. Comparison of the regional climate simulation with observations across 13 subregions showed that the simulation captured the seasonality and the distributions of precipitation rate quite well. The GCM control and climate change simulations showed that, as a result of a 1% increase in greenhouse gas concentrations per year, there will be a warming of 2–3°C across the U.S. from 2000 to 2100. Although precipitation is not projected to change during this century, the warming trend will increase evapotranspiration to reduce annual basin mean runoff over five subregions along the coastal and south-central U.S.

  19. Global Ocean Evaporation: How Well Can We Estimate Interannual to Decadal Variability?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Roberts, Jason B.; Wang, Hailan

    2015-01-01

    Evaporation from the world's oceans constitutes the largest component of the global water balance. It is important not only as the ultimate source of moisture that is tied to the radiative processes determining Earth's energy balance but also to freshwater availability over land, governing habitability of the planet. Here we focus on variability of ocean evaporation on scales from interannual to decadal by appealing to three sources of data: the new MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications -2); climate models run with historical sea-surface temperatures, ice and atmospheric constituents (so-called AMIP experiments); and state-of-the-art satellite retrievals from the Seaflux and HOAPS (Hamburg Ocean-Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite) projects. Each of these sources has distinct advantages as well as drawbacks. MERRA-2, like other reanalyses, synthesizes evaporation estimates consistent with observationally constrained physical and dynamical models-but data stream discontinuities are a major problem for interpreting multi-decadal records. The climate models used in data assimilation can also be run with lesser constraints such as with SSTs and sea-ice (i.e. AMIPs) or with additional, minimal observations of surface pressure and marine observations that have longer and less fragmentary observational records. We use the new ERA-20C reanalysis produced by ECMWF embodying the latter methodology. Still, the model physics biases in climate models and the lack of a predicted surface energy balance are of concern. Satellite retrievals and comparisons to ship-based measurements offer the most observationally-based estimates, but sensor inter-calibration, algorithm retrieval assumptions, and short records are dominant issues. Our strategy depends on maximizing the advantages of these combined records. The primary diagnostic tool used here is an analysis of bulk aerodynamic computations produced by these sources and uses a first

  20. Satellite-based Dust Source Identification over North Africa: Diurnal Cycle, Meteorological Controls, and Interannual Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schepanski, Kerstin; Tegen, Ina; Macke, Andreas

    2010-05-01

    Mineral dust aerosol emitted from arid and semi-arid areas impacts on the weather and climate system by affecting e.g. radiation fluxes and nutrient cycles. To estimate the effect of dust aerosol, detailed knowledge on the spatio-temporal distribution of active dust sources is necessary. For a better representation of dust-related processes in numerical models and climate change projections the knowledge on the natural variability of dust source activity has to be improved. As dust sources are mostly located over remote areas satellite observations are suitable for identifying active dust sources. The accuracy of dust source identification using such an indirect method is limited by the temporal resolution and the ambiguities of the retrieval. Here, a data set on the spatial (1°x1°) and temporal (3-hourly) distribution of dust source activations (DSA) over North Africa is compiled by analyzing 15-minute Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) infra-red (IR) dust index images since March 2006. The index is designed using radiances measured by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infra-Red Imager (SEVIRI) on-board MSG at 8.7 µm, 10.8 µm and 12.0 µm which are converted to brightness temperatures (BTs). To strengthen the dust signal, differences of BTs are used to compute RGB-composite images. This newly data set providing information on the diurnal cycle of dust emission has been used (1) to identify most active dust source areas, and (2) to investigate on the temporal distribution of DSAs. Over the Sahara Desert 65% of dust sources become active during 06-09 UTC pointing towards an important role of the break-down of the nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ) for dust mobilization besides other meteorological features like density currents, haboobs, and cyclones. Furthermore the role of the nocturnal LLJs for dust mobilization over the Sahara is investigated by weather observations and a regional modeling study. Four years of DSA observations indicate an interannual variability in

  1. Surfing wave climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Espejo, Antonio; Losada, Iñigo J.; Méndez, Fernando J.

    2014-10-01

    International surfing destinations are highly dependent on specific combinations of wind-wave formation, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. Surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, and analyses of surf quality require the consideration of the seasonal, interannual and long-term variability of surf conditions on a global scale. A multivariable standardized index based on expert judgment is proposed for this purpose. This index makes it possible to analyze surf conditions objectively over a global domain. A summary of global surf resources based on a new index integrating existing wave, wind, tides and sea surface temperature databases is presented. According to general atmospheric circulation and swell propagation patterns, results show that west-facing low to middle-latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in the Southern Hemisphere. Month-to-month analysis reveals strong seasonal variations in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing the frequency of such events in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. Interannual variability was investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional modes of low-frequency climate variability such as El Niño and the North Atlantic Oscillation, revealing their strong influence at both the global and the regional scale. Results of the long-term trends demonstrate an increase in the probability of surfable events on west-facing coasts around the world in recent years. The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers, the surf tourism industry and surf-related coastal planners and stakeholders.

  2. Seasonal and interannual variability of the Bering Slope Current

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ladd, Carol

    2014-11-01

    Time series of sea-surface height anomalies derived from satellite altimeters and absolute dynamic topography are used to examine variability in the geostrophic surface currents in the Eastern Bering Sea. The data suggest that the primary source of water to the eastern boundary currents of the Bering Sea is flow from the North Pacific through Amukta Pass, an Aleutian pass located at ~172°W. The Aleutian North Slope Current (ANSC) is strongest and most variable in the winter months. Upon turning the corner to feed the Bering Slope Current (BSC), the ANSC bifurcates, resulting in a westward flow at ~54°N in addition to the northwestward flowing BSC. This westward countercurrent has not been previously observed. In the winter, the BSC flows strongly to the northwest and is located near the shelf-break. During the rest of the year, the mean flow is broadly northwestward, but weaker and farther from the shelf break. A continuous northwestward-flowing current is rarely observed in the altimetry data except during winter months, as it is overwhelmed by mesoscale variability. The strength of the BSC in winter is correlated with the Multivariate ENSO Index and the North Pacific Index on interannual timescales.

  3. Seasonal cycle and interannual variability in the Amazon hydrologic cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Ning

    1999-04-01

    An analysis of the Amazon basin hydrologic cycle has been carried out using the NASA/Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) atmospheric reanalysis, observed rainfall of Xie and Arkin [1996], and historical Amazon River discharge. Over a seasonal cycle the precipitation is found to vary by 5 mm d-1, and the runoff is found to vary by 2 mm d-1, while the evaporation largely remains constant. On interannual timescales the hydrologic variability both in the atmosphere and at the land surface is found to be closely related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The correlation between the Southern Oscillation Index and Xie and Arkin precipitation is 0.8 for the period 1985-1993 and 0.56 for the period 1979-1996. The precipitation lags behind the Southern Oscillation Index by 3-4 months while the Amazon River discharge lags behind the precipitation by another 3 months. The lagged relationship suggests interesting dynamic mechanisms. The reanalysis moisture convergence and observed discharge are used to diagnose basin average soil water storage. The year to year variation in the annual mean soil water storage is ˜200 mm, comparable to the change within a climatological seasonal cycle. In one case, the basin soil water storage increases by 462 mm from September 1987 to March 1989, suggesting the remarkable ability of the tropical rain forest environment to store and take up water.

  4. Interannual variability of the Atlantic Cold Tongue heat budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Planton, Yann; Voldoire, Aurore; Giordani, Hervé; Caniaux, Guy

    2015-04-01

    The processes governing the Atlantic Cold Tongue (ACT) development are now better understood, but the mechanisms of its interannual variability are still unclear. The aim of the present study is to explore the mechanisms leading to the cold tongue formation during cold and warm ACT events. Cold and warm ACT events are classified statistically from several datasets following a criteria derived from Richter et al. (2013) and slightly adapted. This classification allows to analyse composites of extreme events. In particular, composites of the mixed layer heat budget have been calculated, computed online in a forced global ocean model. This mixed layer heat budget is a good tool to identify the oceanic processes which control the formation of the ACT and its variability. The results show that the turbulent mixing at the base of the mixed layer plays a dominant role controlling the ACT formation. Cold (warm) events are associated with strong increase (decrease) of the turbulent mixing from march to July. In addition horizontal the advection anomalies are opposite during cold and warm events in June-July. The positive (negative) anomalies during cold (warm) events tend to damp (enhance) the ACT. During warm events, the advection process is responsible of the ACT formation with almost the same intensity as when averaged over all.

  5. Novel Flood Detection and Analysis Method Using Recurrence Property

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wendi, Dadiyorto; Merz, Bruno; Marwan, Norbert

    2016-04-01

    Temporal changes in flood hazard are known to be difficult to detect and attribute due to multiple drivers that include processes that are non-stationary and highly variable. These drivers, such as human-induced climate change, natural climate variability, implementation of flood defence, river training, or land use change, could impact variably on space-time scales and influence or mask each other. Flood time series may show complex behavior that vary at a range of time scales and may cluster in time. This study focuses on the application of recurrence based data analysis techniques (recurrence plot) for understanding and quantifying spatio-temporal changes in flo