VEHICLE MASS REDUCTION STUDY | Science Inventory ...

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Analysis of the potential to reduce light-duty vehicle mass through the application of low density or high strength materials, component consolidation, and changes to vehicle architecture. Find a holistic vehicle design approach that establishes a potential path for future feasible vehicle mass reduction in light-duty vehicles to meet more stringent GHG and Fuel Economy Standards.

Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France

PubMed Central

Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J. J.; Pagé, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A.

2016-01-01

Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by taking interactions between climate, land use and soil type into account. We conclude that climate change will have a much bigger influence on future SOC losses in mid-latitude mineral soils than land use change dynamics. Hence, reducing CO2 emissions will be crucial to prevent further loss of carbon from our soils. PMID:27808169

Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France.

PubMed

Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J J; Pagé, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A

2016-11-03

Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by taking interactions between climate, land use and soil type into account. We conclude that climate change will have a much bigger influence on future SOC losses in mid-latitude mineral soils than land use change dynamics. Hence, reducing CO 2 emissions will be crucial to prevent further loss of carbon from our soils.

NASA-OAST program in photovoltaic energy conversion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mullin, J. P.; Flood, D. J.

1982-01-01

The NASA program in photovoltaic energy conversion includes research and technology development efforts on solar cells, blankets, and arrays. The overall objectives are to increase conversion efficiency, reduce mass, reduce cost, and increase operating life. The potential growth of space power requirements in the future presents a major challenge to the current state of technology in space photovoltaic systems.

Effect of broadened-specification fuels on aircraft engines and fuel systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rudey, R. A.

1979-01-01

A wide variety of studies on the potential effects of broadened-specification fuels on future aircraft engines and fuel systems are summarized. The compositions and characteristics of aircraft fuels that may be derived from current and future crude-oil sources are described, and the most critical properties that may effect aircraft engines and fuel systems are identified and discussed. The problems that are most likely to be encountered because of changes in selected fuel properties are explored; and the related effects on engine performance, component durability and maintenance, and aircraft fuel-system performance are examined. The ability of current technology to accept possible future fuel specification changes is assessed and selected technological advances that can reduce the severity of the potential problems are illustrated.

Effect of broadened-specification fuels on aircraft engines and fuel systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rudey, R. A.

1979-01-01

A wide variety of studies on the potential effects of broadened-specification fuels on future aircraft engines and fuel systems are summarized. The compositions and characteristics of aircraft fuels that may be derived from current and future crude-oil sources are described, and the most critical properties that may affect aircraft engines and fuel systems are identified and discussed. The problems that are most likely to be encountered because of changes in selected fuel properties are described; and the related effects on engine performance, component durability and maintenance, and aircraft fuel-system performance are discussed. The ability of current technology to accept possible future fuel-specification changes is discussed, and selected technological advances that can reduce the severity of the potential problems are illustrated.

Degeneracy allows for both apparent homogeneity and diversification in populations

PubMed Central

Whitacre, James M.; Atamas, Sergei P.

2013-01-01

Trait diversity – the substrate for natural selection – is necessary for adaptation through selection, particularly in populations faced with environmental changes that diminish population fitness. In habitats that remain unchanged for many generations, stabilizing selection maximizes exploitation of resources by reducing trait diversity to a narrow optimal range. One might expect that such ostensibly homogeneous populations would have a reduced potential for heritable adaptive responses when faced with fitness-reducing environmental changes. However, field studies have documented populations that, even after long periods of evolutionary stasis, can still rapidly evolve in response to changed environmental conditions. We argue that degeneracy, the ability of diverse population elements to function similarly, can satisfy both the current need to maximize fitness and the future need for diversity. Degenerate ensembles appear functionally redundant in certain environmental contexts and functionally diverse in others. We propose that genetic variation not contributing to the observed range of phenotypes in a current population, also known as cryptic genetic variation (CGV), is a specific case of degeneracy. We argue that CGV, which gradually accumulates in static populations in stable environments, reveals hidden trait differences when environments change. By allowing CGV accumulation, static populations prepare themselves for future rapid adaptations to environmental novelty. A greater appreciation of degeneracy’s role in resolving the inherent tension between current stabilizing selection and future directional selection has implications in conservation biology and may be applied in social and technological systems to maximize current performance while strengthening the potential for future changes. PMID:22910487

Forgiveness and Consideration of Future Consequences in Aggressive Driving

PubMed Central

Moore, Michael; Dahlen, Eric R.

2008-01-01

Most research on aggressive driving has focused on identifying aspects of driver personality which will exacerbate it (e.g., sensation seeking, impulsiveness, driving anger, etc.). The present study was designed to examine two theoretically relevant but previously unexplored personality factors predicted to reduce the risk of aggressive driving: trait forgiveness and consideration of future consequences. The utility of these variables in predicting aggressive driving and driving anger expression was evaluated among 316 college student volunteers. Hierarchical multiple regressions permitted an analysis of the incremental validity of these constructs beyond respondent gender, age, miles driven per week, and driving anger. Both forgiveness and consideration of future consequences contributed to the prediction of aggressive driving and driving anger expression, independent of driving anger. Research on aggressive driving may be enhanced by greater attention to adaptive, potentially risk-reducing traits. Moreover, forgiveness and consideration of future consequences may have implications for accident prevention. PMID:18760093

Transportation Energy Futures: Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brogan, J. J.; Aeppli, A. E.; Brown, D. F.

2013-03-01

Freight transportation modes—truck, rail, water, air, and pipeline—each serve a distinct share of the freight transportation market. A variety of factors influence the modes chosen by shippers, carriers, and others involved in freight supply chains. Analytical methods can be used to project future modal shares, and federal policy actions could influence future freight mode choices. This report considers how these topics have been addressed in existing literature and offers insights on federal policy decisions with the potential to prompt mode choices that reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.

Cancer Survivors’ Health Worries and Associations with Lifestyle Practices

PubMed Central

Mosher, Catherine E.; Lipkus, Isaac M.; Sloane, Richard; Kraus, William E.; Snyder, Denise Clutter; Peterson, Bercedis; Jones, Lee W.; Demark-Wahnefried, Wendy

2013-01-01

This study examined among recently diagnosed breast and prostate cancer survivors (N = 678) associations between worry about a future diagnosis of heart disease or cancer and hypothetical and actual adherence to exercise and dietary guidelines. Greater worry about future illness was reported under the hypothetical scenario of non-adherence to guidelines relative to the scenario of adherence. Worry about potential heart disease was associated with actual adherence to guidelines, whereas worry about a potential cancer diagnosis was not. Findings suggest that the motivational properties of worry should be considered when developing interventions to reduce heart disease risk among cancer survivors. PMID:18987083

Modelling the combined impacts of climate change and direct anthropogenic drivers on the ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wakelin, Sarah L.; Artioli, Yuri; Butenschön, Momme; Allen, J. Icarus; Holt, Jason T.

2015-12-01

The potential response of the marine ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf to climate change under a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B) is investigated using the coupled hydrodynamics-ecosystem model POLCOMS-ERSEM. Changes in the near future (2030-2040) and the far future (2082-2099) are compared to the recent past (1983-2000). The sensitivity of the ecosystem to potential changes in multiple anthropogenic drivers (river nutrient loads and benthic trawling) in the near future is compared to the impact of changes in climate. With the exception of the biomass of benthic organisms, the influence of the anthropogenic drivers only exceeds the impact of climate change in coastal regions. Increasing river nitrogen loads has a limited impact on the ecosystem whilst reducing river nitrogen and phosphate concentrations affects net primary production (netPP) and phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Direct anthropogenic forcing is seen to mitigate/amplify the effects of climate change. Increasing river nitrogen has the potential to amplify the effects of climate change at the coast by increasing netPP. Reducing river nitrogen and phosphate mitigates the effects of climate change for netPP and the biomass of small phytoplankton and large zooplankton species but amplifies changes in the biomass of large phytoplankton and small zooplankton.

Nuclear energy and security

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

BLEJWAS,THOMAS E.; SANDERS,THOMAS L.; EAGAN,ROBERT J.

2000-01-01

Nuclear power is an important and, the authors believe, essential component of a secure nuclear future. Although nuclear fuel cycles create materials that have some potential for use in nuclear weapons, with appropriate fuel cycles, nuclear power could reduce rather than increase real proliferation risk worldwide. Future fuel cycles could be designed to avoid plutonium production, generate minimal amounts of plutonium in proliferation-resistant amounts or configurations, and/or transparently and efficiently consume plutonium already created. Furthermore, a strong and viable US nuclear infrastructure, of which nuclear power is a large element, is essential if the US is to maintain a leadershipmore » or even participatory role in defining the global nuclear infrastructure and controlling the proliferation of nuclear weapons. By focusing on new fuel cycles and new reactor technologies, it is possible to advantageously burn and reduce nuclear materials that could be used for nuclear weapons rather than increase and/or dispose of these materials. Thus, the authors suggest that planners for a secure nuclear future use technology to design an ideal future. In this future, nuclear power creates large amounts of virtually atmospherically clean energy while significantly lowering the threat of proliferation through the thoughtful use, physical security, and agreed-upon transparency of nuclear materials. The authors must develop options for policy makers that bring them as close as practical to this ideal. Just as Atoms for Peace became the ideal for the first nuclear century, they see a potential nuclear future that contributes significantly to power for peace and prosperity.« less

The Potential Role of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math Programs in Reducing Teen Dating Violence and Intimate Partner Violence.

PubMed

D'Inverno, Ashley Schappell; Kearns, Megan C; Reidy, Dennis E

2016-12-01

Science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) are growing fields that provide job stability, financial security, and health prosperity for professionals in these fields. Unfortunately, females are underrepresented in STEM, which is potentially both a consequence and precipitant of gender inequity in the United States. In addition to the financial and health benefits, increasing the number of girls and women in STEM fields may also indirectly prevent and/or reduce teen dating violence and intimate partner violence by: (1) increasing women's financial independence, thereby reducing dependence on potentially abusive partners; (2) decreasing household poverty and financial stress, which may lead to reductions in relationship discord; and (3) increasing attitudes and beliefs about women as equals, thereby increasing gender equity. In this commentary, we discuss the potential role of primary and secondary school STEM programs in reducing violence against women. We review the literature on existing evaluations of STEM programs for educational outcomes, discuss the limitations of these evaluations, and offer suggestions for future research.

Evaluating the promise and pitfalls of a potential climate change-tolerant sea urchin fishery in southern California.

PubMed

Sato, Kirk N; Powell, Jackson; Rudie, Dave; Levin, Lisa A

2018-05-01

Marine fishery stakeholders are beginning to consider and implement adaptation strategies in the face of growing consumer demand and potential deleterious climate change impacts such as ocean warming, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation. This study investigates the potential for development of a novel climate change - tolerant sea urchin fishery in southern California based on Strongylocentrotus fragilis (pink sea urchin), a deep-sea species whose peak density was found to coincide with a current trap-based spot prawn fishery ( Pandalus platyceros ) in the 200-300-m depth range. Here we outline potential criteria for a climate change - tolerant fishery by examining the distribution, life-history attributes, and marketable qualities of S. fragilis in southern California. We provide evidence of seasonality of gonad production and demonstrate that peak gonad production occurs in the winter season. S. fragilis likely spawns in the spring season as evidenced by consistent minimum gonad indices in the spring/summer seasons across 4 years of sampling (2012-2016). The resiliency of S. fragilis to predicted future increases in acidity and decreases in oxygen was supported by high species abundance, albeit reduced relative growth rate estimates at water depths (485-510 m) subject to low oxygen (11.7-16.9 µmol kg -1 ) and pH Total (<7.44), which may provide assurances to stakeholders and managers regarding the suitability of this species for commercial exploitation. Some food quality properties of the S. fragilis roe (e.g. colour, texture) were comparable with those of the commercially exploited shallow-water red sea urchin ( Mesocentrotus franciscanus ), while other qualities (e.g. 80% reduced gonad size by weight) limit the potential future marketability of S. fragilis . This case study highlights the potential future challenges and drawbacks of climate-tolerant fishery development in an attempt to inform future urchin fishery stakeholders.

Climatology, hydrology, and simulation of an emergency outlet, Devils Lake basin, North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiche, Gregg J.; Vecchia, A.V.; Osborne, Leon; Wood, Carrie M.; Fay, James T.

2000-01-01

Devils Lake is a natural lake in northeastern North Dakota that is the terminus of a nearly 4,000-square-mile subbasin in the Red River of the North Basin. The lake has not reached its natural spill elevation to the Sheyenne River (a tributary of the Red River of the North) in recorded history. However, geologic evidence indicates a spill occurred sometime within the last 1,800 years. From 1993 to 1999, Devils Lake rose 24.5 feet and, at the present (August 2000), is about 13 feet below the natural spill elevation. The recent lake-level rise has caused flood damages exceeding $300 million and triggered development of future flood-control options to prevent further infrastructure damage and reduce the risk of a potentially catastrophic uncontrolled spill. Construction of an emergency outlet from the west end of Devils Lake to the Sheyenne River is one flood-control option being considered. This report describes the climatologic and hydrologic causes of the recent lake level rise, provides information on the potential for continued lake-level rises during the next 15 years, and describes the potential effectiveness of an emergency outlet in reducing future lake levels and in reducing the risk of an uncontrolled spill. The potential effects of an outlet on downstream water quantity and quality in the upper Sheyenne River also are described.

7 CFR 14.6 - Criteria for determining the pri- mary purpose of payments with respect to potential exclusion...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... conservation includes actions that, for a given level of water supply, reduce the demand for or use of water by... reuse of water, thereby making existing supplies available for other current or future uses; or (iv) Improving land management practices for the purpose of reducing water use, loss, waste, increasing the...

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one. PMID:27015274

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

PubMed

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

Transportation Energy Futures Series. Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvement Beyond the Light-Duty-Vehicle Sector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vyas, A. D.; Patel, D. M.; Bertram, K. M.

2013-02-01

Considerable research has focused on energy efficiency and fuel substitution options for light-duty vehicles, while much less attention has been given to medium- and heavy-duty trucks, buses, aircraft, marine vessels, trains, pipeline, and off-road equipment. This report brings together the salient findings from an extensive review of literature on future energy efficiency options for these non-light-duty modes. Projected activity increases to 2050 are combined with forecasts of overall fuel efficiency improvement potential to estimate the future total petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to current levels. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result ofmore » the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.« less

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvement Beyond the Light-Duty-Vehicle Sector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vyas, A. D.; Patel, D. M.; Bertram, K. M.

2013-03-01

Considerable research has focused on energy efficiency and fuel substitution options for light-duty vehicles, while much less attention has been given to medium- and heavy-duty trucks, buses, aircraft, marine vessels, trains, pipeline, and off-road equipment. This report brings together the salient findings from an extensive review of literature on future energy efficiency options for these non-light-duty modes. Projected activity increases to 2050 are combined with forecasts of overall fuel efficiency improvement potential to estimate the future total petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to current levels. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result ofmore » the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.« less

Reducing Wind Curtailment through Transmission Expansion in a Wind Vision Future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jorgensen, Jennie; Mai, Trieu; Brinkman, Greg

The Department of Energy's 2015 Wind Vision study, which analyzed an ambitious scenario where wind power served 35% of U.S. electricity consumption in 2050, showed the potential for wind energy to provide substantial health, environmental, and economic benefits. Using a commercial unit commitment and economic dispatch model, we build on this research by assessing the hourly operational feasibility of a similar high wind future in the Western United States. Our detailed simulations found no hours of unmet load or reserve violations with more than 35% potential wind (and 12% potential solar) available on the system, which highlights the technical possibilitymore » of integrating large amounts of wind energy. However, absent significant changes to the western grid, we find that substantial wind curtailment could be an issue, as it could degrade the potential for wind power to reduce fuel costs and lowering the emission benefits. To assess the value of transmission to mitigate wind curtailment, we model a suite of transmission expansion scenarios. We find that wind curtailment could be reduced by approximately half under a scenario where new transmission is based only on proposed projects. This avoided wind curtailment could lower annual production costs and reduce carbon dioxide emissions substantially. Greater transmission expansion was found to yield further benefits, although the marginal benefits of these new lines were found to decline. Overall, these results suggest that power systems operation can be realized with more than 35% wind penetration, but that transmission expansion is likely to play a vital role.« less

Utilization management in radiology, part 2: perspectives and future directions.

PubMed

Duszak, Richard; Berlin, Jonathan W

2012-10-01

Increased utilization of medical imaging in the early part of the last decade has resulted in numerous efforts to reduce associated spending. Recent initiatives have focused on managing utilization with radiology benefits managers and real-time order entry decision support systems. Although these approaches might seem mutually exclusive and their application to radiology appears unique, the historical convergence and broad acceptance of both programs within the pharmacy sector may offer parallels for their potential future in medical imaging. In this second installment of a two-part series, anticipated trends in radiology utilization management are reviewed. Perspectives on current and future potential roles of radiologists in such initiatives are discussed, particularly in light of emerging physician payment models. Copyright © 2012 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The future of fishes and fisheries in the changing oceans.

PubMed

Cheung, W W L

2018-03-01

This paper aims to highlight the risk of climate change on coupled marine human and natural systems and explore possible solutions to reduce such risk. Specifically, it explores some of the key responses of marine fish stocks and fisheries to climate change and their implications for human society. It highlights the importance of mitigating carbon emission and achieving the Paris Agreement in reducing climate risk on marine fish stocks and fisheries. Finally, it discusses potential opportunities for helping fisheries to reduce climate threats, through local adaptation. A research direction in fish biology and ecology is proposed that would help support the development of these potential solutions. © 2018 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change.

PubMed

Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Lötters, Stefan

2010-11-01

Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity.

The potential for land sparing to offset greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, Anthony; Green, Rhys; Bateman, Ian; Broadmeadow, Mark; Bruce, Toby; Burney, Jennifer; Carey, Pete; Chadwick, David; Crane, Ellie; Field, Rob; Goulding, Keith; Griffiths, Howard; Hastings, Astley; Kasoar, Tim; Kindred, Daniel; Phalan, Ben; Pickett, John; Smith, Pete; Wall, Eileen; Zu Ermgassen, Erasmus K. H. J.; Balmford, Andrew

2016-05-01

Greenhouse gas emissions from global agriculture are increasing at around 1% per annum, yet substantial cuts in emissions are needed across all sectors. The challenge of reducing agricultural emissions is particularly acute, because the reductions achievable by changing farming practices are limited and are hampered by rapidly rising food demand. Here we assess the technical mitigation potential offered by land sparing--increasing agricultural yields, reducing farmland area and actively restoring natural habitats on the land spared. Restored habitats can sequester carbon and can offset emissions from agriculture. Using the UK as an example, we estimate net emissions in 2050 under a range of future agricultural scenarios. We find that a land-sparing strategy has the technical potential to achieve significant reductions in net emissions from agriculture and land-use change. Coupling land sparing with demand-side strategies to reduce meat consumption and food waste can further increase the technical mitigation potential--however, economic and implementation considerations might limit the degree to which this technical potential could be realized in practice.

Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

2018-01-01

This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%-72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%-42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C-2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to climate change.

Identification of technology options for reducing nitrogen pollution in cropping systems of Pujiang*

PubMed Central

Fang, Bin; Wang, Guang-huo; Van den berg, Marrit; Roetter, Reimund

2005-01-01

This work analyses the potential role of nitrogen pollution technology of crop systems of Pujiang, County in Eastern China’s Zhejiang Province, rice and vegetables are important cropping systems. We used a case study approach involving comparison of farmer practices and improved technologies. This approach allows assessing the impact of technology on pollution, is forward looking, and can yield information on the potential of on-the-shelf technology and provide opportunities for technology development. The approach particularly suits newly developed rice technologies with large potential of reducing nitrogen pollution and for future rice and vegetables technologies. The results showed that substantial reductions in nitrogen pollution are feasible for both types of crops. PMID:16187411

Identification of technology options for reducing nitrogen pollution in cropping systems of Pujiang.

PubMed

Fang, Bin; Wang, Guang-Huo; Van, Den Berg Marrit; Roetter, Reimund

2005-10-01

This work analyses the potential role of nitrogen pollution technology of crop systems of Pujiang, County in Eastern China's Zhejiang Province, rice and vegetables are important cropping systems. We used a case study approach involving comparison of farmer practices and improved technologies. This approach allows assessing the impact of technology on pollution, is forward looking, and can yield information on the potential of on-the-shelf technology and provide opportunities for technology development. The approach particularly suits newly developed rice technologies with large potential of reducing nitrogen pollution and for future rice and vegetables technologies. The results showed that substantial reductions in nitrogen pollution are feasible for both types of crops.

Nonmarket benefits of reducing environmental effects of potential wildfires in beetle-killed trees: A contingent valuation study

Treesearch

Maryam Tabatabaei; John B. Loomis; Daniel W. McCollum

2015-01-01

We estimated Colorado households’ nonmarket values for two forest management options for reducing intensity of future wildfires and associated nonmarket environmental effects wildfires. The first policy is the traditional harvesting of pine beetle-killed trees and burning of the slash piles of residual materials on-site. The second involves harvesting but moving the...

Degeneracy allows for both apparent homogeneity and diversification in populations.

PubMed

Whitacre, James M; Atamas, Sergei P

2012-10-01

Trait diversity - the substrate for natural selection - is necessary for adaptation through selection, particularly in populations faced with environmental changes that diminish population fitness. In habitats that remain unchanged for many generations, stabilizing selection maximizes exploitation of resources by reducing trait diversity to a narrow optimal range. One might expect that such ostensibly homogeneous populations would have a reduced potential for heritable adaptive responses when faced with fitness-reducing environmental changes. However, field studies have documented populations that, even after long periods of evolutionary stasis, can still rapidly evolve in response to changed environmental conditions. We argue that degeneracy, the ability of diverse population elements to function similarly, can satisfy both the current need to maximize fitness and the future need for diversity. Degenerate ensembles appear functionally redundant in certain environmental contexts and functionally diverse in others. We propose that genetic variation not contributing to the observed range of phenotypes in a current population, also known as cryptic genetic variation (CGV), is a specific case of degeneracy. We argue that CGV, which gradually accumulates in static populations in stable environments, reveals hidden trait differences when environments change. By allowing CGV accumulation, static populations prepare themselves for future rapid adaptations to environmental novelty. A greater appreciation of degeneracy's role in resolving the inherent tension between current stabilizing selection and future directional selection has implications in conservation biology and may be applied in social and technological systems to maximize current performance while strengthening the potential for future changes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of health information technology and e-health on the future demand for physician services.

PubMed

Weiner, Jonathan P; Yeh, Susan; Blumenthal, David

2013-11-01

Arguably, few factors will change the future face of the American health care workforce as widely and dramatically as health information technology (IT) and electronic health (e-health) applications. We explore how such applications designed for providers and patients will affect the future demand for physicians. We performed what we believe to be the most comprehensive review of the literature to date, including previously published systematic reviews and relevant individual studies. We estimate that if health IT were fully implemented in 30 percent of community-based physicians' offices, the demand for physicians would be reduced by about 4-9 percent. Delegation of care to nurse practitioners and physician assistants supported by health IT could reduce the future demand for physicians by 4-7 percent. Similarly, IT-supported delegation from specialist physicians to generalists could reduce the demand for specialists by 2-5 percent. The use of health IT could also help address regional shortages of physicians by potentially enabling 12 percent of care to be delivered remotely or asynchronously. These estimated impacts could more than double if comprehensive health IT systems were adopted by 70 percent of US ambulatory care delivery settings. Future predictions of physician supply adequacy should take these likely changes into account.

Episodic future thinking reduces eating in a food court.

PubMed

O'Neill, Jessica; Daniel, Tinuke Oluyomi; Epstein, Leonard H

2016-01-01

Episodic future thinking (EFT) is the psychological process of vividly imagining a future event, and this process has been shown to reduce overeating in the laboratory. To assess the efficacy of EFT in the natural environment, twenty-nine overweight or obese women who wanted to improve their eating habits were randomly assigned to one of two smartphone-implemented interventions--EFT or control episodic recent thinking (ERT)--while they ate dinner in a public food court. Results showed a reduction in consumption of total calories, a reduction in percent calories from fat, and an increase in percent calories from protein for EFT versus ERT. These data suggest EFT may be used to modify eating habits in natural eating environments, and may show potential as a component of behavioral obesity interventions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preservation of Reduced Carbon on Mars: Implications for Understanding Habitability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Conrad, Pamela; Fogel, Marilyn; Steele, Andrew; Summons, Roger E.

2007-01-01

Upcoming Mars missions (e.g., Mars Science Laboratory, ExoMars, Astrobiology Field Laboratory, and Mars Sample Return) will search for evidence of extant and fossil microbial habitats and the potential for future habitation. Understanding the distribution and composition of reduced carbon (or organic carbon) is critical for unraveling the Martian carbon cycle, potential for life, and possible biosignature record. Reduced carbon may be produced from biological, geochemical, or interstellar processes; however, evidence for reduced carbon on Mars is lacking with the exception of parts per billion of atmospheric methane. In contrast, abundant atmospheric carbon dioxide may reflect surface oxidation of reduced carbon and accumulation over geological timescales. This suggests that there is an undetected or lost pool of reduced carbon - a pool that may host molecular biosignatures, a characteristic of extant or extinct habitability. In this presentation, we will evaluate factors influencing the preservation potential for organic molecules in rocks on Earth and Martian. We,draw examples from organic molecules in sulfates, basalts, and ancient shales from Mars-analog settings to show how the distribution of organics and their structural patterns will aid Mars habitability studies.

A survey on the coordination of connected and automated vehicles at intersections and merging at highway on-ramps

DOE PAGES

Rios-Torres, Jackeline; Malikopoulos, Andreas A.

2016-09-07

Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) have the potential to improve safety by reducing and mitigating traffic accidents. They can also provide opportunities to reduce transportation energy consumption and emissions by improving traffic flow. Vehicle communication with traffic structures and traffic lights can allow individual vehicles to optimize their operation and account for unpredictable changes. This paper summarizes the developments and the research trends in coordination with the CAVs that have been reported in the literature to date. In conclusion, remaining challenges and potential future research directions are also discussed.

Threats and opportunities for freshwater conservation under future land use change scenarios in the United States.

PubMed

Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Januchowski-Hartley, Stephanie R; Pracheil, Brenda M; McIntyre, Peter B; Plantinga, Andrew J; Lewis, David J; Radeloff, Volker C

2014-01-01

Freshwater ecosystems provide vital resources for humans and support high levels of biodiversity, yet are severely threatened throughout the world. The expansion of human land uses, such as urban and crop cover, typically degrades water quality and reduces freshwater biodiversity, thereby jeopardizing both biodiversity and ecosystem services. Identifying and mitigating future threats to freshwater ecosystems requires forecasting where land use changes are most likely. Our goal was to evaluate the potential consequences of future land use on freshwater ecosystems in the coterminous United States by comparing alternative scenarios of land use change (2001-2051) with current patterns of freshwater biodiversity and water quality risk. Using an econometric model, each of our land use scenarios projected greater changes in watersheds of the eastern half of the country, where freshwater ecosystems already experience higher stress from human activities. Future urban expansion emerged as a major threat in regions with high freshwater biodiversity (e.g., the Southeast) or severe water quality problems (e.g., the Midwest). Our scenarios reflecting environmentally oriented policies had some positive effects. Subsidizing afforestation for carbon sequestration reduced crop cover and increased natural vegetation in areas that are currently stressed by low water quality, while discouraging urban sprawl diminished urban expansion in areas of high biodiversity. On the other hand, we found that increases in crop commodity prices could lead to increased agricultural threats in areas of high freshwater biodiversity. Our analyses illustrate the potential for policy changes and market factors to influence future land use trends in certain regions of the country, with important consequences for freshwater ecosystems. Successful conservation of aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem services in the United States into the future will require attending to the potential threats and opportunities arising from policies and market changes affecting land use. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brogan, J. J.; Aeppli, A. E.; Beagan, D. F.

2013-03-01

Truck, rail, water, air, and pipeline modes each serve a distinct share of the freight transportation market. The current allocation of freight by mode is the product of technologic, economic, and regulatory frameworks, and a variety of factors -- price, speed, reliability, accessibility, visibility, security, and safety -- influence mode. Based on a comprehensive literature review, this report considers how analytical methods can be used to project future modal shares and offers insights on federal policy decisions with the potential to prompt shifts to energy-efficient, low-emission modes. There are substantial opportunities to reduce the energy used for freight transportation, butmore » it will be difficult to shift large volumes from one mode to another without imposing considerable additional costs on businesses and consumers. This report explores federal government actions that could help trigger the shifts in modal shares needed to reduce energy consumption and emissions. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation.« less

Thinning and prescribed fire and projected trends in wood product potential, financial return, and fire hazard in New Mexico.

Treesearch

Roger D. Fight; R. James Barbour; Glenn Christensen; Guy L. Pinjuv; Rao V. Nagubadi

2004-01-01

This work was undertaken under a joint fire science project "Assessing the need, costs, and potential benefits of prescribed fire and mechanical treatments to reduce fire hazard." This paper compares the future mix of timber projects under two treatment scenarios for New Mexico.We developed and demonstrated an analytical method that uses readily available...

Thinning and prescribed fire and projected trends in wood product potential, financial return, and fire hazard in Montana.

Treesearch

R. James Barbour; Roger D. Fight; Glenn A. Christensen; Guy L. Pinjuv; Rao V. Nagubadi

2004-01-01

This work was undertaken under a joint fire science project "Assessing the need, costs, and potential benefits of prescribed fire and mechanical treatments to reduce fire hazard." This paper compares the future mix of timber products under two treatment scenarios for the state of Montana. We developed and demonstrated an analytical method that uses readily...

Snowmelt-Driven Trade-Offs Between Early and Late Season Productivity Negatively Impact Forest Carbon Uptake During Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowles, John F.; Molotch, Noah P.; Trujillo, Ernesto; Litvak, Marcy E.

2018-04-01

Future projections of declining snowpack and increasing potential evaporation are predicted to advance the timing of snowmelt in mountain ecosystems globally with unknown implications for snowmelt-driven forest productivity. Accordingly, this study combined satellite- and tower-based observations to investigate the forest productivity response to snowpack and potential evaporation variability between 1989 and 2012 throughout the Southern Rocky Mountain ecoregion, United States. Our results show that early and late season productivity were significantly and inversely related and that future shifts toward earlier and/or reduced snowmelt could decrease snowmelt water use efficiency and thus restrict productivity despite a longer growing season. This was explained by increasing snow aridity, which incorporated evaporative demand and snow water supply, and was modified by summer precipitation to determine total annual productivity. The combination of low snow accumulation and record high potential evaporation in 2012 resulted in the 34 year minimum ecosystem productivity that could be indicative of future conditions.

Potential impacts of nanotechnology on energy transmission applications and needs.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elcock, D.; Environmental Science Division

2007-11-30

The application of nanotechnologies to energy transmission has the potential to significantly impact both the deployed transmission technologies and the need for additional development. This could be a factor in assessing environmental impacts of right-of-way (ROW) development and use. For example, some nanotechnology applications may produce materials (e.g., cables) that are much stronger per unit volume than existing materials, enabling reduced footprints for construction and maintenance of electricity transmission lines. Other applications, such as more efficient lighting, lighter-weight materials for vehicle construction, and smaller batteries having greater storage capacities may reduce the need for long-distance transport of energy, and possiblymore » reduce the need for extensive future ROW development and many attendant environmental impacts. This report introduces the field of nanotechnology, describes some of the ways in which processes and products developed with or incorporating nanomaterials differ from traditional processes and products, and identifies some examples of how nanotechnology may be used to reduce potential ROW impacts. Potential environmental, safety, and health impacts are also discussed.« less

Earlier Snowmelt Changes the Ratio Between Early and Late Season Forest Productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowles, J. F.; Molotch, N. P.; Trujillo, E.; Litvak, M. E.

2017-12-01

Future projections of declining snowpack and increasing potential evaporation associated with climate warming are predicted to advance the timing of snowmelt in mountain ecosystems globally. This scenario has direct implications for snowmelt-driven forest productivity, but the net effect of temporally shifting moisture dynamics is unknown with respect to the annual carbon balance. Accordingly, this study uses both satellite- and tower-based observations to document the forest productivity response to snowpack and potential evaporation variability between 1989 and 2012 throughout the southern Rocky Mountain ecoregion, USA. These results show that a combination of low snow accumulation and record high potential evaporation in 2012 resulted in the 34-year minimum ecosystem productivity that could be indicative of future conditions. Moreover, early and late season productivity were significantly and inversely related, suggesting that future shifts toward earlier or reduced snowmelt could increase late-season moisture stress to vegetation and thus restrict productivity despite a longer growing season. This relationship was further subject to modification by summer precipitation, and the controls on the early/late season productivity ratio are explored within the context of ecosystem carbon storage in the future. Any perturbation to the carbon cycle at this scale represents a potential feedback to climate change since snow-covered forests represent an important global carbon sink.

Impacts of climate change and socio-economic scenarios on flow and water quality of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) river systems: low flow and flood statistics.

PubMed

Whitehead, P G; Barbour, E; Futter, M N; Sarkar, S; Rodda, H; Caesar, J; Butterfield, D; Jin, L; Sinha, R; Nicholls, R; Salehin, M

2015-06-01

The potential impacts of climate change and socio-economic change on flow and water quality in rivers worldwide is a key area of interest. The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) is one of the largest river basins in the world serving a population of over 650 million, and is of vital concern to India and Bangladesh as it provides fresh water for people, agriculture, industry, conservation and for the delta system downstream. This paper seeks to assess future changes in flow and water quality utilising a modelling approach as a means of assessment in a very complex system. The INCA-N model has been applied to the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna river systems to simulate flow and water quality along the rivers under a range of future climate conditions. Three model realisations of the Met Office Hadley Centre global and regional climate models were selected from 17 perturbed model runs to evaluate a range of potential futures in climate. In addition, the models have also been evaluated using socio-economic scenarios, comprising (1) a business as usual future, (2) a more sustainable future, and (3) a less sustainable future. Model results for the 2050s and the 2090s indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates, with enhanced flood potential. Low flows are predicted to fall with extended drought periods, which could have impacts on water and sediment supply, irrigated agriculture and saline intrusion. In contrast, the socio-economic changes had relatively little impact on flows, except under the low flow regimes where increased irrigation could further reduce water availability. However, should large scale water transfers upstream of Bangladesh be constructed, these have the potential to reduce flows and divert water away from the delta region depending on the volume and timing of the transfers. This could have significant implications for the delta in terms of saline intrusion, water supply, agriculture and maintaining crucial ecosystems such as the mangrove forests, with serious implications for people's livelihoods in the area. The socio-economic scenarios have a significant impact on water quality, altering nutrient fluxes being transported into the delta region.

Regulation of the host immune system by helminth parasites.

PubMed

Maizels, Rick M; McSorley, Henry J

2016-09-01

Helminth parasite infections are associated with a battery of immunomodulatory mechanisms that affect all facets of the host immune response to ensure their persistence within the host. This broad-spectrum modulation of host immunity has intended and unintended consequences, both advantageous and disadvantageous. Thus the host can benefit from suppression of collateral damage during parasite infection and from reduced allergic, autoimmune, and inflammatory reactions. However, helminth infection can also be detrimental in reducing vaccine responses, increasing susceptibility to coinfection and potentially reducing tumor immunosurveillance. In this review we will summarize the panoply of immunomodulatory mechanisms used by helminths, their potential utility in human disease, and prospective areas of future research. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Steady-State Somatosensory Evoked Potential for Brain-Computer Interface—Present and Future

PubMed Central

Ahn, Sangtae; Kim, Kiwoong; Jun, Sung Chan

2016-01-01

Brain-computer interface (BCI) performance has achieved continued improvement over recent decades, and sensorimotor rhythm-based BCIs that use motor function have been popular subjects of investigation. However, it remains problematic to introduce them to the public market because of their low reliability. As an alternative resolution to this issue, visual-based BCIs that use P300 or steady-state visually evoked potentials (SSVEPs) seem promising; however, the inherent visual fatigue that occurs with these BCIs may be unavoidable. For these reasons, steady-state somatosensory evoked potential (SSSEP) BCIs, which are based on tactile selective attention, have gained increasing attention recently. These may reduce the fatigue induced by visual attention and overcome the low reliability of motor activity. In this literature survey, recent findings on SSSEP and its methodological uses in BCI are reviewed. Further, existing limitations of SSSEP BCI and potential future directions for the technique are discussed. PMID:26834611

Clinical Trials Methods for Evaluation of Potential Reduced Exposure Products

PubMed Central

Hatsukami, Dorothy K.; Hanson, Karen; Briggs, Anna; Parascandola, Mark; Genkinger, Jeanine M.; O'Connor, Richard; Shields, Peter

2009-01-01

Potential reduced exposure tobacco products (PREPs) may have promise in reducing tobacco-related morbidity or mortality or may promote greater harm to individuals or the population. Critical to determining the risks or benefits from these products are valid human clinical trial PREP assessment methods. Assessment involves determining the effects of these products on biomarkers of exposure and of effect, which serve as proxies for harm, and assessing the potential for consumer uptake and abuse of the product. This article raises the critical methodological issues associated with PREP assessment, reviews the methods that have been used to assess PREPs, and describes the strengths and limitations of these methods. Additionally, recommendations for clinical trials PREP assessment methods and future research directions in this area based on this review and on the deliberations from a National Cancer Institute sponsored Clinical Trials PREP Methods Workshop are provided. PMID:19959672

Strategies to Reduce Indoor Tanning

PubMed Central

Holman, Dawn M.; Fox, Kathleen A.; Glenn, Jeffrey D.; Guy, Gery P.; Watson, Meg; Baker, Katie; Cokkinides, Vilma; Gottlieb, Mark; Lazovich, DeAnn; Perna, Frank M.; Sampson, Blake P.; Seidenberg, Andrew B.; Sinclair, Craig; Geller, Alan C.

2015-01-01

Exposure to ultraviolet radiation from indoor tanning device use is associated with an increased risk of skin cancer, including risk of malignant melanoma, and is an urgent public health problem. By reducing indoor tanning, future cases of skin cancer could be prevented, along with the associated morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. On August 20, 2012, the CDC hosted a meeting to discuss the current body of evidence on strategies to reduce indoor tanning as well as research gaps. Using the Action Model to Achieve Healthy People 2020 Overarching Goals as a framework, the current paper provides highlights on the topics that were discussed, including (1) the state of the evidence on strategies to reduce indoor tanning; (2) the tools necessary to effectively assess, monitor, and evaluate the short- and long-term impact of interventions designed to reduce indoor tanning; and (3) strategies to align efforts at the national, state, and local levels through transdisciplinary collaboration and coordination across multiple sectors. Although many challenges and barriers exist, a coordinated, multilevel, transdisciplinary approach has the potential to reduce indoor tanning and prevent future cases of skin cancer. PMID:23683986

Is there room for all of us? Renewable energy and Xerospermophilus mohavensis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Inman, Richard D.; Esque, Todd C.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Leitner, Philip; Matocq, Marjorie D.; Weisberg, Peter J.; Dilts, Tomas E.; Vandergast, Amy G.

2013-01-01

Mohave ground squirrels Xerospermophilus mohavensis Merriam are small ground-dwelling rodents that have a highly restricted range in the northwest Mojave Desert, California, USA. Their small natural range is further reduced by habitat loss from agriculture, urban development, military training and recreational activities. Development of wind and solar resources for renewable energy has the potential to further reduce existing habitat. We used maximum entropy habitat models with observation data to describe current potential habitat in the context of future renewable energy development in the region. While 16% of historic habitat has been impacted by, or lost to, urbanization at present, an additional 10% may be affected by renewable energy development in the near future. Our models show that X. mohavensis habitat suitability is higher in areas slated for renewable energy development than in surrounding areas. We provide habitat maps that can be used to develop sampling designs, evaluate conservation corridors and inform development planning in the region.

Current and Future Constraints on Primordial Magnetic Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutton, Dylan R.; Feng, Chang; Reichardt, Christian L.

2017-09-01

We present new limits on the amplitude of potential primordial magnetic fields (PMFs) using temperature and polarization measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) from Planck, the BICEP2/Keck Array, Polarbear, and SPTpol. We reduce twofold the 95% confidence upper limit on the CMB anisotropy power due to a nearly scale-invariant PMF, with an allowed B-mode power at ℓ = 1500 of {D}{\\ell =1500}{BB}< 0.071 μ {K}2 for Planck versus {D}{\\ell =1500}{BB}< 0.034 μ {K}2 for the combined data set. We also forecast the expected limits from soon-to-deploy CMB experiments (like SPT-3G, Adv. ACTpol, or the Simons Array) and the proposed CMB-S4 experiment. Future CMB experiments should dramatically reduce the current uncertainties by one order of magnitude for the near-term experiments and two orders of magnitude for the CMB-S4 experiment. The constraints from CMB-S4 have the potential to rule out much of the parameter space for PMFs.

Concreteness of Positive, Negative, and Neutral Repetitive Thinking About the Future

PubMed Central

Behar, Evelyn; McGowan, Sarah Kate; McLaughlin, Katie A.; Borkovec, T.D.; Goldwin, Michelle; Bjorkquist, Olivia

2014-01-01

Consistent with assertions that the adaptiveness of repetitive thinking is influenced by both its valence and style, Stöber (e.g., Stöber & Borkovec, 2002) has argued that worry is characterized by a reduced concreteness of thought content and that the resulting abstractness contributes to its inhibition of some aspects of anxious responding. However, extant research does not provide a direct test of Stöber’s reduced concreteness theory of worry. We sought to test Stöber’s theory and to examine the adaptiveness of repetitive worrisome thinking by randomly assigning 108 participants to engage in five consecutive periods of repetitive thinking about positively, negatively, or neutrally valenced potential future events. Results based on coding of thought data indicated that (a) repetitive thinking became increasingly less concrete as periods progressed; (b) contrary to Stöber’s theory, both negative and positive repetitive future thinking were more concrete than neutral repetitive future thinking (and did not differ from each other); and (c) abstractness of thought during negative repetitive future thinking was associated with reduced reports of imagery-based activity. Results based on self-reported affect indicated that negatively valenced repetitive future thinking was uniquely associated with initial decreases in anxious affect, followed by increased anxious affect that coincided with increased imagery-based activity. This suggests that worry is associated with a sequential mitigation of anxious meaning followed by a strengthening of anxious meaning over time. Theoretical and clinical implications of these findings are discussed. PMID:22440067

Analysis of environmental constraints on expanding reserves in current and future reservoirs in wetlands. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harder, B.J.

1995-03-01

Louisiana wetlands require careful management to allow exploitation of non-renewable resources without destroying renewable resources. Current regulatory requirements have been moderately successful in meeting this goal by restricting development in wetland habitats. Continuing public emphasis on reducing environmental impacts of resource development is causing regulators to reassess their regulations and operators to rethink their compliance strategies. We examined the regulatory system and found that reducing the number of applications required by going to a single application process and having a coherent map of the steps required for operations in wetland areas would reduce regulatory burdens. Incremental changes can be mademore » to regulations to allow one agency to be the lead for wetland permitting at minimal cost to operators. Operators need cost effective means of access that will reduce environmental impacts, decrease permitting time, and limit future liability. Regulators and industry must partner to develop incentive based regulations that can provide significant environmental impact reduction for minimal economic cost. In addition regulators need forecasts of future E&P trends to estimate the impact of future regulations. To determine future activity we attempted to survey potential operators when this approach was unsuccessful we created two econometric models of north and south Louisiana relating drilling activity, success ratio, and price to predict future wetland activity. Results of the econometric models indicate that environmental regulations have a small but statistically significant effect on drilling operations in wetland areas of Louisiana. We examined current wetland practices and evaluated those practices comparing environmental versus economic costs and created a method for ranking the practices.« less

Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors.

PubMed

Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

Jet engine applications for materials with nanometer-scale dimensions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Appleby, J. W., Jr.

1995-01-01

The performance of advanced military and commercial gas turbine engines is often linked to advances in materials technology. High performance gas turbine engines being developed require major material advances in strength, toughness, reduced density and improved temperature capability. The emerging technology of nanostructured materials has enormous potential for producing materials with significant improvements in these properties. Extraordinary properties demonstrated in the laboratory include material strengths approaching theoretical limit, ceramics that demonstrate ductility and toughness, and materials with ultra-high hardness. Nanostructured materials and coatings have the potential for meeting future gas turbine engine requirements for improved performance, reduced weight and lower fuel consumption.

Jet engine applications for materials with nanometer-scale dimensions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Appleby, J. W., Jr.

1995-01-01

The performance of advanced military and commercial gas turbine engines is often linked to advances in materials technology. High performance gas turbine engines being developed require major material advances in strength, toughness, reduced density and improved temperature capability. The emerging technology of nanostructured materials has enormous potential for producing materials with significant improvements in these properties. Extraordinary properties demonstrated in the laboratory include material strengths approaching theoretical limit, ceramics that demonstrate ductility and toughness, and material with ultra-high hardness. Nanostructured materials and coatings have the potential for meeting future gas turbine engine requirements for improved performance, reduced weight and lower fuel consumption.

Superfund record of decision (EPA Region 4): Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (USDOE), Operable Unit 15, Paducah, KY, August 10, 1998

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1998-12-01

This decision document presents the remedial action for the Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) 91 of the Waste Area Group (WAG) 27 at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP) near Paducah, Kentucky. The primary objective of this remedial action is to reduce the level of TCE-contaminated soil thereby reducing the potential future concentrations in ground water that could pose a threat to human health and the environment at the POE (i.e., the DOE property boundary). The potential for migration of the contamination from the soil of the off-site aquifer is the concern associated with the SWMU.

The Value of Biomedical Simulation Environments to Future Human Space Flight Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mulugeta,Lealem; Myers, Jerry G.; Lewandowski, Beth; Platts, Steven H.

2011-01-01

Mars and NEO missions will expose astronaut to extended durations of reduced reduced gravity, isolation and higher radiation. These new operation conditions pose health risks that are not well understood and perhaps unanticipated. Advanced computational simulation environments can beneficially augment research to predict, assess and mitigate potential hazards to astronaut health. The NASA Digital Astronaut Project (DAP), within the NASA Human Research Program, strives to achieve this goal.

Enhancing Interdisciplinary Human System Risk Research Through Modeling and Network Approaches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Shelhamer, Mark

2015-01-01

NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) supports research to reduce human health and performance risks inherent in future human space exploration missions. Understanding risk outcomes and contributing factors in an integrated manner allows HRP research to support development of efficient and effective mitigations from cross-disciplinary perspectives, and to enable resilient human and engineered systems for spaceflight. The purpose of this work is to support scientific collaborations and research portfolio management by utilizing modeling for analysis and visualization of current and potential future interdisciplinary efforts.

Dietary Acrylamide and Human Cancer: A Systematic Review of Literature

PubMed Central

Nagy, Tim R.; Barnes, Stephen; Groopman, John

2014-01-01

Cancer remains the second leading cause of death in the United States, and the numbers of cases are expected to continue to rise worldwide. Cancer prevention strategies are crucial for reducing the cancer burden. The carcinogenic potential of dietary acrylamide exposure from cooked foods is unknown. Acrylamide is a by-product of the common Maillard reaction where reducing sugars (i.e., fructose and glucose) react with the amino acid, asparagine. Based on the evidence of acrylamide carcinogenicity in animals, the International Agency for Research on Cancer has classified acrylamide as a group 2A carcinogen for humans. Since the discovery of acrylamide in foods in 2002, a number of studies have explored its potential as a human carcinogen. This paper outlines a systematic review of dietary acrylamide and human cancer, acrylamide exposure and internal dose, exposure assessment methods in the epidemiologic studies, existing data gaps, and future directions. A majority of the studies reported no statistically significant association between dietary acrylamide intake and various cancers, and few studies reported increased risk for renal, endometrial, and ovarian cancers; however, the exposure assessment has been inadequate leading to potential misclassification or underestimation of exposure. Future studies with improved dietary acrylamide exposure assessment are encouraged. PMID:24875401

Interactive effects of nocturnal transpiration and climate change on the root hydraulic redistribution and carbon and water budgets of southern United States pine plantations.

PubMed

Domec, Jean-Christophe; Ogée, Jérôme; Noormets, Asko; Jouangy, Julien; Gavazzi, Michael; Treasure, Emrys; Sun, Ge; McNulty, Steve G; King, John S

2012-06-01

Deep root water uptake and hydraulic redistribution (HR) have been shown to play a major role in forest ecosystems during drought, but little is known about the impact of climate change, fertilization and soil characteristics on HR and its consequences on water and carbon fluxes. Using data from three mid-rotation loblolly pine plantations, and simulations with the process-based model MuSICA, this study indicated that HR can mitigate the effects of soil drying and had important implications for carbon uptake potential and net ecosystem exchange (NEE), especially when N fertilization is considered. At the coastal site (C), characterized by deep organic soil, HR increased dry season tree transpiration (T) by up to 40%, and such an increase affected NEE through major changes in gross primary productivity (GPP). Deep-rooted trees did not necessarily translate into a large volume of HR unless soil texture allowed large water potential gradients to occur, as was the case at the sandy site (S). At the Piedmont site (P) characterized by a shallow clay-loam soil, HR was low but not negligible, representing up to 10% of T. In the absence of HR, it was predicted that at the C, S and P sites, annual GPP would have been diminished by 19, 7 and 9%, respectively. Under future climate conditions HR was predicted to be reduced by up to 25% at the C site, reducing the resilience of trees to precipitation deficits. The effect of HR on T and GPP was predicted to diminish under future conditions by 12 and 6% at the C and P sites, respectively. Under future conditions, T was predicted to stay the same at the P site, but to be marginally reduced at the C site and slightly increased at the S site. Future conditions and N fertilization would decrease T by 25% at the C site, by 15% at the P site and by 8% at the S site. At the C and S sites, GPP was estimated to increase by 18% and by >70% under future conditions, respectively, with little effect of N fertilization. At the P site, future conditions would stimulate GPP by only 12%, but future conditions plus N fertilization would increase GPP by 24%. As a consequence, in all sites, water use efficiency was predicted to improve dramatically with future conditions. Modeling the effect of reduced annual precipitation indicated that limited water availability would decrease all carbon fluxes, including NEE and respiration. Our simulations highlight the interactive effects of nutrients and elevated CO(2), and showed that the effect of N fertilization would be greater under future climate conditions.

Local recruitment experience in a study comparing the effectiveness of a low glycaemic index diet with a low calorie healthy eating approach at achieving weight loss and reducing the risk of endometrial cancer in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS).

PubMed

Atiomo, William; Read, Anna; Golding, Mary; Silcocks, Paul; Razali, Nuguelis; Sarkar, Sabitabrata; Hardiman, Paul; Thornton, Jim

2009-09-01

Feasibility of a clinical-trial comparing a low-glycaemic diet with a low-calorie healthy eating approach at achieving weight loss and reducing the risk of endometrial cancer in women with PCOS. A pilot Randomised-Controlled-Trial using different recruitment strategies. A University Hospital in the United Kingdom. Women seen at specialist gynaecology clinics over a 12 month period in one University Hospital, and women self identified through a website and posters. Potential recruits were assessed for eligibility, gave informed consent, randomised, treated and assessed as in the definitive trial. Eligibility and recruitment rates, compliance with the allocated diet for 6 months and with clinical assessments, blood tests, pelvic ultrasound scans and endometrial biopsies. 1433 new and 2598 follow up patients were seen in 153 gynaecology clinics for over 12 months. 441 (11%) potentially eligible women were identified, 19 (0.4%) of whom met the trial entry criteria. Eleven consented to take part, of which 8 (73%) completed the study. Planned future trials on over-weight women with PCOS should be multicentre and should incorporate primary care. This data will help other researchers plan and calculate the sample size and potential recruitment rates in future clinical trials in PCOS. The results will also be useful for inclusion in future meta-analyses.

National Economic Value Assessment of Plug-in Electric Vehicles: Volume I

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, Marc; Bush, Brian; Eichman, Joshua

The adoption of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) can reduce household fuel expenditures by substituting electricity for gasoline while reducing greenhouse gas emissions and petroleum imports. A scenario approach is employed to provide insights into the long-term economic value of increased PEV market growth across the United States. The analytic methods estimate fundamental costs and benefits associated with an economic allocation of PEVs across households based upon household driving patterns, projected vehicle cost and performance attributes, and simulations of a future electricity grid. To explore the full technological potential of PEVs and resulting demands on the electricity grid, very high PEVmore » market growth projections from previous studies are relied upon to develop multiple future scenarios.« less

Agmatine improves locomotor function and reduces tissue damage following spinal cord injury.

PubMed

Yu, C G; Marcillo, A E; Fairbanks, C A; Wilcox, G L; Yezierski, R P

2000-09-28

Clinically effective drug treatments for spinal cord injury (SCI) remain unavailable. Agmatine, an NMDA receptor antagonist and inhibitor of nitric oxide synthase (NOS), is an endogenous neuromodulator found in the brain and spinal cord. Evidence is presented that agmatine significantly improves locomotor function and reduces tissue damage following traumatic SCI in rats. The results suggest the importance of future therapeutic strategies encompassing the use of single drugs with multiple targets for the treatment of acute SCI. The therapeutic targets of agmatine (NMDA receptor and NOS) have been shown to be critically linked to the pathophysiological sequelae of CNS injury and this, combined with the non-toxic profile, lends support to agmatine being considered as a potential candidate for future clinical applications.

Mortality and greenhouse gas impacts of biomass and petroleum energy futures in Africa.

PubMed

Bailis, Robert; Ezzati, Majid; Kammen, Daniel M

2005-04-01

We analyzed the mortality impacts and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions produced by household energy use in Africa. Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, household indoor air pollution will cause an estimated 9.8 million premature deaths by the year 2030. Gradual and rapid transitions to charcoal would delay 1.0 million and 2.8 million deaths, respectively; similar transitions to petroleum fuels would delay 1.3 million and 3.7 million deaths. Cumulative BAU GHG emissions will be 6.7 billion tons of carbon by 2050, which is 5.6% of Africa's total emissions. Large shifts to the use of fossil fuels would reduce GHG emissions by 1 to 10%. Charcoal-intensive future scenarios using current practices increase emissions by 140 to 190%; the increase can be reduced to 5 to 36% using currently available technologies for sustainable production or potentially reduced even more with investment in technological innovation.

Engine Yaw Augmentation for Hybrid-Wing-Body Aircraft via Optimal Control Allocation Techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, Brian R.; Yoo, Seung Yeun

2011-01-01

Asymmetric engine thrust was implemented in a hybrid-wing-body non-linear simulation to reduce the amount of aerodynamic surface deflection required for yaw stability and control. Hybrid-wing-body aircraft are especially susceptible to yaw surface deflection due to their decreased bare airframe yaw stability resulting from the lack of a large vertical tail aft of the center of gravity. Reduced surface deflection, especially for trim during cruise flight, could reduce the fuel consumption of future aircraft. Designed as an add-on, optimal control allocation techniques were used to create a control law that tracks total thrust and yaw moment commands with an emphasis on not degrading the baseline system. Implementation of engine yaw augmentation is shown and feasibility is demonstrated in simulation with a potential drag reduction of 2 to 4 percent. Future flight tests are planned to demonstrate feasibility in a flight environment.

CANTOS: A breakthrough that proves the inflammatory hypothesis of atherosclerosis

PubMed Central

Atherosclerosis is no longer considered solely a disorder of subintimal deposition of modified low-density lipoprotein particles in the arterial wall. Rather, it is known to be a chronic inflammatory disorder. No evidence has shown that reducing vascular inflammation in the absence of concomitant lowering of lipoproteins levels reduces the rates of adverse cardiovascular (CV) events. Canakinumab, a fully human monoclonal antibody that neutralizes interleukin (IL)-1β, significantly reduced the rate of recurrent CV events in patients with prior myocardial infarction in the Canakinumab Anti-inflammatory Thrombosis Outcome Study (CANTOS). Canakinumab has no effect on CV or all-cause mortality, however it was associated with high incidence of fatal infections. Thus, the net benefit needs to be properly addressed in future studies that evaluate the potential benefit of the anti-inflammatory therapies and whether it can change clinical practice in the near future. PMID:29644229

Solar variability: Implications for global change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lean, Judith; Rind, David

1994-01-01

Solar variability is examined in search of implications for global change. The topics covered include the following: solar variation modification of global surface temperature; the significance of solar variability with respect to future climate change; and methods of reducing the uncertainty of the potential amplitude of solar variability on longer time scales.

Argonne News Brief: Self-Healing Diamond-Like Carbon Coating Could Revolutionize Lubrication

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

Argonne scientists discovered a technique to create a layer of diamond-like carbon on the surfaces between moving parts. This could change the future of lubrication—potentially making engines more efficient, more reliable, and even greener (by reducing heavy metal additives needed in engine oils.)

Marginal Maidens and Educational Policy for Women's Institutions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Connor, Kathleen M.

Unfavorable world and national economic and social trends of recent years have been paralleled by a reduced commitment to social services for marginalized peoples, including educational programs for women inmates. The potential negative results for future levels of delinquency and crime cannot be precisely calculated, according to sociologists and…

Productivity limits and potentials of the principles of conservation agriculture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

One of the primary challenges of our time is to feed a growing and more demanding world population with reduced external inputs and minimal environmental impacts, all under more variable and extreme climate conditions of the future. Conservation agriculture (CA) represents a set of three crop manage...

Current and future patterns of fire-induced forest degradation in Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Faria, Bruno L.; Brando, Paulo M.; Macedo, Marcia N.; Panday, Prajjwal K.; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S.; Coe, Michael T.

2017-09-01

Amazon droughts directly increase forest flammability by reducing forest understory air and fuel moisture. Droughts also increase forest flammability indirectly by decreasing soil moisture, triggering leaf shedding, branch loss, and tree mortality—all of which contribute to increased fuel loads. These direct and indirect effects can cause widespread forest fires that reduce forest carbon stocks in the Amazon, with potentially important consequences for the global carbon cycle. These processes are expected to become more widespread, common, and intense as global climate changes, yet the mechanisms linking droughts, wildfires, and associated changes in carbon stocks remain poorly understood. Here, we expanded the capabilities of a dynamic forest carbon model to better represent (1) drought effects on carbon and fuel dynamics and (2) understory fire behavior and severity. We used the refined model to quantify changes in Pan-Amazon live carbon stocks as a function of the maximum climatological water deficit (MCWD) and fire intensity, under both historical and future climate conditions. We found that the 2005 and 2010 droughts increased potential fire intensity by 226 kW m-1 and 494 kW m-1, respectively. These increases were due primarily to increased understory dryness (109 kW m-1 in 2005; 124 kW m-1 in 2010) and altered forest structure (117 kW m-1 in 2005; 370 kW m-1 in 2010) effects. Combined, these historic droughts drove total simulated reductions in live carbon stocks of 0.016 (2005) and 0.027 (2010) PgC across the Amazon Basin. Projected increases in future fire intensity increased simulated carbon losses by up to 90% per unit area burned, compared with modern climate. Increased air temperature was the primary driver of changes in simulated future fire intensity, while reduced precipitation was secondary, particularly in the eastern portion of the Basin. Our results show that fire-drought interactions strongly affect live carbon stocks and that future climate change, combined with the synergistic effects of drought on forest flammability, may strongly influence the stability of tropical forests in the future.

Stevia rebaudiana Bertoni effect on the hemolytic potential of Listeria monocytogenes.

PubMed

Sansano, S; Rivas, A; Pina-Pérez, M C; Martinez, A; Rodrigo, D

2017-06-05

The effect of Stevia rebaudiana Bertoni on the hemolytic potential of Listeria monocytogenes was studied by means of the assessment of the Listeriolysin O (LLO) production. The three factors under study, stevia concentration in the range [0-2.5] % (w/v), incubation temperature (10 and 37°C), and exposure time (0-65h) significantly affected (p≤0.05) the hemolytic activity of L. monocytogenes. Results showed that at the lower incubation temperature the hemolytic potential of the bacterium was significantly reduced, from 100% at 37°C to 8% at 10°C (after 65h of incubation) in unsupplemented substrate (0% stevia). Irrespective of the temperature, 10 or 37°C, supplementation of the medium with stevia at 2.5 % (w/v) reduced the bacterium's hemolytic activity by a maximum of 100%. Furthermore, the time of exposure to 2.5 % (w/v) stevia concentration was also a significant factor reducing the hemolytic capability of L. monocytogenes. The possibility of reducing the pathogenic potential of L. monocytogenes (hemolysis) by exposure to stevia should be confirmed in real food matrices, opening a research niche with a valuable future impact on food safety. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Establishing lunar resource viability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carpenter, J.; Fisackerly, R.; Houdou, B.

2016-11-01

Recent research has highlighted the potential of lunar resources as an important element of space exploration but their viability has not been demonstrated. Establishing whether or not they can be considered in future plans is a multidisciplinary effort, requiring scientific expertise and delivering scientific results. To this end various space agencies and private entities are looking to lunar resources, extracted and processed in situ, as a potentially game changing element in future space architectures, with the potential to increase scale and reduce cost. However, before any decisions can be made on the inclusion of resources in exploration roadmaps or future scenarios some big questions need to be answered about the viability of different resource deposits and the processes for extraction and utilisation. The missions and measurements that will be required to answer these questions, and which are being prepared by agencies and others, can only be performed through the engagement and support of the science community. In answering questions about resources, data and knowledge will be generated that is of fundamental scientific importance. In supporting resource prospecting missions the science community will de facto generate new scientific knowledge. Science enables exploration and exploration enables science.

Future fuels and engines for railroad locomotives. Volume 2: Technical document

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liddle, S. G.

1981-01-01

The potential for reducing the dependence of railroads on petroleum fuel, particularly Diesel No. 2 was studied. The study takes two approaches: to determine the use of Diesel No. 2 can be reduced through increased efficiency and conservation, and to use fuels other than Diesel No. 2 both in Diesel and other types of engines. Synthetic hydrocarbon fuels, probably derived from oil shale, will be needed if present diesel-electric locomotives continue to be used.

School-based approaches to reducing the duration of untreated psychosis.

PubMed

Schiffman, Jason; Stephan, Sharon Hoover; Hong, L Elliot; Reeves, Gloria

2015-04-01

Students with emerging psychosis often experience delays in diagnosis and treatment that impact mental health and academic outcomes. School systems have tremendous potential to improve early identification and treatment of adolescent psychosis. As a community-based resource, schools can support outreach, education, and screening for adolescents with psychosis and engage identified students and their families for treatment. The concept of duration of untreated psychosis (DUP; the gap between symptom onset and treatment initiation) in adolescent psychosis and the potential role of schools in reducing DUP are reviewed. Future directions for clinical care and research needed to support school-based interventions are proposed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Projected cancer risks potentially related to past, current, and future practices in paediatric CT in the United Kingdom, 1990-2020.

PubMed

Journy, Neige M Y; Lee, Choonsik; Harbron, Richard W; McHugh, Kieran; Pearce, Mark S; Berrington de González, Amy

2017-01-03

To project risks of developing cancer and the number of cases potentially induced by past, current, and future computed tomography (CT) scans performed in the United Kingdom in individuals aged <20 years. Organ doses were estimated from surveys of individual scan parameters and CT protocols used in the United Kingdom. Frequencies of scans were estimated from the NHS Diagnostic Imaging Dataset. Excess lifetime risks (ELRs) of radiation-related cancer were calculated as cumulative lifetime risks, accounting for survival probabilities, using the RadRAT risk assessment tool. In 2000-2008, ELRs ranged from 0.3 to 1 per 1000 head scans and 1 to 5 per 1000 non-head scans. ELRs per scan were reduced by 50-70% in 2000-2008 compared with 1990-1995, subsequent to dose reduction over time. The 130 750 scans performed in 2015 in the United Kingdom were projected to induce 64 (90% uncertainty interval (UI): 38-113) future cancers. Current practices would lead to about 300 (90% UI: 230-680) future cancers induced by scans performed in 2016-2020. Absolute excess risks from single exposures would be low compared with background risks, but even small increases in annual CT rates over the next years would substantially increase the number of potential subsequent cancers.

Towards an Immunophenotype of Schizophrenia: Progress, Potential Mechanisms, and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Miller, Brian J; Goldsmith, David R

2017-01-01

The evidence to date, coupled with advances in immunology and genetics has afforded the field an unparalleled opportunity to investigate the hypothesis that a subset of patients with schizophrenia may manifest an immunophenotype, toward new potential diagnostics and therapeutics to reduce risk, alleviate symptoms, and improve quality of life in both at-risk populations and patients with established schizophrenia. In this paper, we will first summarize the findings on immune dysfunction in schizophrenia, including (1) genetic, prenatal, and premorbid immune risk factors and (2) immune markers across the clinical course of the disorder, including cytokines; C-reactive protein; immune cells; antibodies, autoantibodies and comorbid autoimmune disorders; complement; oxidative stress; imaging of neuroinflammation; infections; and clinical trials of anti-inflammatory agents and immunotherapy. We will then discuss a potential mechanistic framework toward increased understanding of a potential schizophrenia immunophenotype. We will then critically appraise the existing literature, and discuss suggestions for the future research agenda in this area that are needed to rigorously evaluate this hypothesis. PMID:27654215

Potential impact of climate change to the future streamflow of Yellow River Basin based on CMIP5 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiaoli; Zheng, Weifei; Ren, Liliang; Zhang, Mengru; Wang, Yuqian; Liu, Yi; Yuan, Fei; Jiang, Shanhu

2018-02-01

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is the largest river basin in northern China, which has suffering water scarcity and drought hazard for many years. Therefore, assessments the potential impacts of climate change on the future streamflow in this basin is very important for local policy and planning on food security. In this study, based on the observations of 101 meteorological stations in YRB, equidistant CDF matching (EDCDFm) statistical downscaling approach was applied to eight climate models under two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model with 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution was developed based on downscaled fields for simulating streamflow in the future period over YRB. The results show that with the global warming trend, the annual streamflow will reduced about 10 % during the period of 2021-2050, compared to the base period of 1961-1990 in YRB. There should be suitable water resources planning to meet the demands of growing populations and future climate changing in this region.

Integrating chemical, toxicological and clinical research to assess the potential of reducing health risks associated with cigarette smoking through reducing toxicant emissions.

PubMed

McAdam, Kevin; Murphy, James; Eldridge, Alison; Meredith, Clive; Proctor, Christopher

2018-06-01

The concept of a risk continuum for tobacco and nicotine products has been proposed, which differentiates products according to their propensity to reduce toxicant exposure and risk. Cigarettes are deemed the most risky and medicinal nicotine the least. We assessed whether a Reduced-Toxicant Prototype (RTP) cigarette could sufficiently reduce exposure to toxicants versus conventional cigarettes to be considered a distinct category in the risk continuum. We present findings from both pre-clinical and clinical studies in order to examine the potential for reduced smoke toxicant emissions to lower health risks associated with cigarette smoking. We conclude that current toxicant reducing technologies are unable to reduce toxicant emissions sufficiently to manifest beneficial disease-relevant changes in smokers. These findings point to a minimum toxicant exposure standard that future potentially reduced risk products would need to meet to be considered for full biological assessment. The RTP met WHO TobReg proposed limits on cigarette toxicant emissions, however the absence of beneficial disease relevant changes in smokers after six months reduced toxicant cigarette use, does not provide evidence that these regulatory proposals will positively impact risks of smoking related diseases. Greater toxicant reductions, such as those that can be achieved in next generation products e.g. tobacco heating products and electronic cigarettes are likely to be necessary to clearly reduce risks compared with conventional cigarettes. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Preventing intimate partner violence through paid parental leave policies.

PubMed

D'Inverno, Ashley Schappell; Reidy, Dennis E; Kearns, Megan C

2018-05-30

Paid parental leave policies have the potential to strengthen economic supports, reduce family discord, and provide opportunities to empower women (Basile et al., 2016; Niolon et al., 2017). In this article, we present a theory of change and evidence to suggest how paid parental leave may impact intimate partner violence (IPV). In doing so, we present three mechanisms of change (i.e., reduction in financial stress, increase in egalitarian parenting practices, and promotion of child/parent bonding) through which paid parental leave could reduce rates of IPV. We also describe limitations of the current state of knowledge in this area, as well as opportunities for future research. Ultimately, our goal is to facilitate the identification and implementation of approaches that have the potential to reduce violence at the population level. Paid parental leave embodies the potential of policies to change societal-level factors and serve as an important prevention strategy for IPV. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Cost/benefit trade-offs for reducing the energy consumption of commercial air transportation (RECAT)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gobetz, F. W.; Leshane, A. A.

1976-01-01

The RECAT study evaluated the opportunities for reducing the energy requirements of the U.S. domestic air passenger transport system through improved operational techniques, modified in-service aircraft, derivatives of current production models, or new aircraft using either current or advanced technology. Each of these fuel-conserving alternatives was investigated individually to test its potential for fuel conservation relative to a hypothetical baseline case in which current, in-production aircraft types are assumed to operate, without modification and with current operational techniques, into the future out to the year 2000. Consequently, while the RECAT results lend insight into the directions in which technology can best be pursued for improved air transport fuel economy, no single option studied in the RECAT program is indicative of a realistic future scenario.

Future fuels and engines for railroad locomotives. Volume 1: Summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liddle, S. G.; Bonzo, B. B.; Purohit, G. P.; Stallkamp, J. A.

1981-01-01

The potential for reducing the dependence of railroads on petroleum fuel, particularly Diesel No. 2 was investigated. Two approaches are studied: (1) to determine how the use of Diesel No. 2 can be reduced through increased efficiency and conservation, and (2) to use fuels other than Diesel No. 2 both in Diesel and other types of engines. Because synthetic hydrocarbon fuels are particularly suited to medium speed diesel engines, the first commercial application of these fuels may be by the railroad industry.

I PLAY AT WORK—ten principles for transforming work processes through gamification

PubMed Central

Oprescu, Florin; Jones, Christian; Katsikitis, Mary

2014-01-01

Gamified workplaces could be a positive and innovative solution to addressing contemporary problems in organizations. Such problems include high levels of stress, reduced sense of community, reduced loyalty and rapid changes in the workforce. To better prepare organizations for the future it may be helpful to identify and understand the potential advantages, disadvantages and areas for future research in relationship to the use of gamification for personal and organizational wellbeing. An analysis of research literature across disciplines in combination with expert opinion identified gamified workplaces as a promising strategy for promoting wellbeing. Furthermore, this paper proposes a set of 10 principles (I PLAY AT WORK) that may support gamification efforts. In addition to the value of mapping the present for the benefit of the future, there is also considerable value in reshaping core ideas related to the workplaces. Gamified workplaces can provide opportunities for a more vigorous and strategic inter-disciplinary research agenda that can stimulate investments in the area. PMID:24523704

I PLAY AT WORK-ten principles for transforming work processes through gamification.

PubMed

Oprescu, Florin; Jones, Christian; Katsikitis, Mary

2014-01-01

Gamified workplaces could be a positive and innovative solution to addressing contemporary problems in organizations. Such problems include high levels of stress, reduced sense of community, reduced loyalty and rapid changes in the workforce. To better prepare organizations for the future it may be helpful to identify and understand the potential advantages, disadvantages and areas for future research in relationship to the use of gamification for personal and organizational wellbeing. An analysis of research literature across disciplines in combination with expert opinion identified gamified workplaces as a promising strategy for promoting wellbeing. Furthermore, this paper proposes a set of 10 principles (I PLAY AT WORK) that may support gamification efforts. In addition to the value of mapping the present for the benefit of the future, there is also considerable value in reshaping core ideas related to the workplaces. Gamified workplaces can provide opportunities for a more vigorous and strategic inter-disciplinary research agenda that can stimulate investments in the area.

Antimisting kerosene. [reduced flammability during aircraft accident circumstances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, H. W.

1980-01-01

The antimisting additive ((FM-9) was tested in terms of its propulsion systems performance. The effect of the additive on engine operation was evaluated, operating problems were identified, the adaptability of engines to antimisting kerosene was assessed, and the potential viability of this fuel for use in present and future fan jet engines was determined.

How Small Can We Go: Exploring the Limitations and Scaling laws of Air-Microfluidic Particulate Matter Sensors

EPA Science Inventory

Air-microfluidics is a field that has the potential to dramatically reduce the size, cost, and power requirements of future air quality sensors. Microfabrication provides a suite of relatively new tools for the development of micro electro mechanical systems (MEMS) that can be ap...

Using decision analysis to support proactive management of emerging infectious wildlife diseases

Treesearch

Evan H Campbell Grant; Erin Muths; Rachel A Katz; Stefano Canessa; Michael J Adams; Jennifer R Ballard; Lee Berger; Cheryl J Briggs; Jeremy TH Coleman; Matthew J Gray; M Camille Harris; Reid N Harris; Blake Hossack; Kathryn P Huyvaert; Jonathan Kolby; Karen R Lips; Robert E Lovich; Hamish I McCallum; Joseph R Mendelson; Priya Nanjappa; Deanna H Olson; Jenny G Powers; Katherine LD Richgels; Robin E Russell; Benedikt R Schmidt; Annemarieke Spitzen-van der Sluijs; Mary Kay Watry; Douglas C Woodhams; C LeAnn White

2017-01-01

Despite calls for improved responses to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife, management is seldom considered until a disease has been detected in affected populations. Reactive approaches may limit the potential for control and increase total response costs. An alternative, proactive management framework can identify immediate actions that reduce future impacts...

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Effects of Travel Reduction and Efficient Driving on Transportation: Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Porter, C. D.; Brown, A.; DeFlorio, J.

2013-03-01

Since the 1970s, numerous transportation strategies have been formulated to change the behavior of drivers or travelers by reducing trips, shifting travel to more efficient modes, or improving the efficiency of existing modes. This report summarizes findings documented in existing literature to identify strategies with the greatest potential impact. The estimated effects of implementing the most significant and aggressive individual driver behavior modification strategies range from less than 1% to a few percent reduction in transportation energy use and GHG emissions. Combined strategies result in reductions of 7% to 15% by 2030. Pricing, ridesharing, eco-driving, and speed limit reduction/enforcement strategiesmore » are widely judged to have the greatest estimated potential effect, but lack the widespread public acceptance needed to accomplish maximum results. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.« less

Transportation Energy Futures Series. Effects of Travel Reduction and Efficient Driving on Transportation. Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Porter, C. D.; Brown, A.; DeFlorio, J.

2013-03-01

Since the 1970s, numerous transportation strategies have been formulated to change the behavior of drivers or travelers by reducing trips, shifting travel to more efficient modes, or improving the efficiency of existing modes. This report summarizes findings documented in existing literature to identify strategies with the greatest potential impact. The estimated effects of implementing the most significant and aggressive individual driver behavior modification strategies range from less than 1% to a few percent reduction in transportation energy use and GHG emissions. Combined strategies result in reductions of 7% to 15% by 2030. Pricing, ridesharing, eco-driving, and speed limit reduction/enforcement strategiesmore » are widely judged to have the greatest estimated potential effect, but lack the widespread public acceptance needed to accomplish maximum results. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.« less

Transportation Energy Futures Series. Effects of the Built Environment on Transportation. Energy Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Other Factors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Porter, C. D.; Brown, A.; Dunphy, R. T.

2013-03-15

Planning initiatives in many regions and communities aim to reduce transportation energy use, decrease emissions, and achieve related environmental benefits by changing land use. This report reviews and summarizes findings from existing literature on the relationship between the built environment and transportation energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, identifying results trends as well as potential future actions. The indirect influence of federal transportation and housing policies, as well as the direct impact of municipal regulation on land use are examined for their effect on transportation patterns and energy use. Special attention is given to the 'four D' factors of density,more » diversity, design and accessibility. The report concludes that policy-driven changes to the built environment could reduce transportation energy and GHG emissions from less than 1% to as much as 10% by 2050, the equivalent of 16%-18% of present-day urban light-duty-vehicle travel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.« less

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Effects of the Built Environment on Transportation: Energy Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Other Factors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Porter, C. D.; Brown, A.; Dunphy, R. T.

2013-03-01

Planning initiatives in many regions and communities aim to reduce transportation energy use, decrease emissions, and achieve related environmental benefits by changing land use. This report reviews and summarizes findings from existing literature on the relationship between the built environment and transportation energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, identifying results trends as well as potential future actions. The indirect influence of federal transportation and housing policies, as well as the direct impact of municipal regulation on land use are examined for their effect on transportation patterns and energy use. Special attention is given to the 'four D' factors of density,more » diversity, design and accessibility. The report concludes that policy-driven changes to the built environment could reduce transportation energy and GHG emissions from less than 1% to as much as 10% by 2050, the equivalent of 16%-18% of present-day urban light-duty-vehicle travel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.« less

Climate change and the distribution and conservation of the world's highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuyckens, G. A. E.; Christie, D. A.; Domic, A. I.; Malizia, L. R.; Renison, D.

2016-02-01

Climate change is becoming an increasing threat to biodiversity. Consequently, methods for delineation, establishment and management of protected areas must consider the species' future distribution in response to future climate conditions. Biodiversity in high altitude semiarid regions may be particularly threatened by future climate change. In this study we assess the main environmental variables that best explain present day presence of the world's highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano, and model how climate change may affect the future distribution of this unique ecosystem under different climate change scenarios. These woodlands are dominated by Polylepis tarapacana (Rosaceae), a species that forms unique biological communities with important conservation value. Our results indicate that five environmental variables are responsible for 91% and 90.3% of the present and future P. tarapacana distribution models respectively, and suggest that at the end of the 21st century, there will be a significant reduction (56%) in the potential habitat for this species due to more arid conditions. Since it is predicted that P. tarapacana's potential distribution will be severely reduced in the future, we propose a new network of national protected areas across this species distribution range in order to insure the future conservation of this unique ecosystem. Based on an extensive literature review we identify research topics and recommendations for on-ground conservation and management of P. tarapacana woodlands.

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple.

PubMed

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

Perceived stress among 20-21 year-olds and their future labour market participation - an eight-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Trolle, Nanna; Lund, Thomas; Winding, Trine Nohr; Labriola, Merete

2017-03-31

Labour market participation among young adults is essential for their future socioeconomic status and health. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between perceived stress among 20-21 year-olds and their labour market participation 8 years later as well as investigate any potential gender differences. A cohort of 1640 young adults born in 1983 completed a questionnaire in 2004 in which perceived stress was measured. The cohort was followed in a register of social benefits for 12 months in 2011-2012 and was categorized into active and passive labour market participation. Logistic regression was used to analyse the association between perceived stress and future labour market participation, taking into account effects of potential confounders. The analyses were stratified by gender. The effects of perceived stress on future labour market participation differed significantly among young women and young men (p = 0.029). For young men, higher levels of perceived stress reduced the risk of future passive labour market participation, when adjusting for socioeconomic factors, self-rated health and copings strategies (p = 0.045). For young women, higher levels of perceived stress increased the risk of future passive labour market participation, when adjusting for the same potential confounding factors, although unlike the men, this association was not statistically significant (p = 0.335). The observed gender difference has important implications from a public health point of view. Healthcare professionals might need to differentiate between the genders in terms of health communication, research and when developing preventive strategies.

Assessing Land Management Change Effects on Forest Carbon and Emissions Under Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Law, B. E.

2014-12-01

There has been limited focus on fine-scale land management change effects on forest carbon under future environmental conditions (climate, nitrogen deposition, increased atmospheric CO2). Forest management decisions are often made at the landscape to regional levels before analyses have been conducted to determine the potential outcomes and effectiveness of such actions. Scientists need to evaluate plausible land management actions in a timely manner to help shape policy and strategic land management. Issues of interest include species-level adaptation to climate, resilience and vulnerability to mortality within forested landscapes and regions. Efforts are underway to improve land system model simulation of future mortality related to climate, and to develop and evaluate plausible land management options that could help mitigate or avoid future die-offs. Vulnerability to drought-related mortality varies among species and with tree size or age. Predictors of species ability to survive in specific environments are still not resolved. A challenge is limited observations for fine-scale (e.g. 4 km2) modeling, particularly physiological parameters. Uncertainties are primarily associated with future land management and policy decisions. They include the interface with economic factors and with other ecosystem services (biodiversity, water availability, wildlife habitat). The outcomes of future management scenarios should be compared with business-as-usual management under the same environmental conditions to determine the effects of management changes on forest carbon and net emissions to the atmosphere. For example, in the western U.S., land system modeling and life cycle assessment of several management options to reduce impacts of fire reduced long-term forest carbon gain and increased carbon emissions compared with business-as-usual management under future environmental conditions. The enhanced net carbon uptake with climate and reduced fire emissions after thinning did not compensate for the increased wood removals over 90 years, leading to reduced net biome production. Analysis of land management change scenarios at fine scales is needed, and should consider other ecological values in addition to carbon.

Logistics Reduction and Repurposing Beyond Low Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ewert, Michael K.; Broyan, James L., Jr.

2012-01-01

All human space missions, regardless of destination, require significant logistical mass and volume that is strongly proportional to mission duration. Anything that can be done to reduce initial mass and volume of supplies or reuse items that have been launched will be very valuable. Often, the logistical items require disposal and represent a trash burden. Logistics contributions to total mission architecture mass can be minimized by considering potential reuse using systems engineering analysis. In NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems "Logistics Reduction and Repurposing Project," various tasks will reduce the intrinsic mass of logistical packaging, enable reuse and repurposing of logistical packaging and carriers for other habitation, life support, crew health, and propulsion functions, and reduce or eliminate the nuisance aspects of trash at the same time. Repurposing reduces the trash burden and eliminates the need for hardware whose function can be provided by use of spent logistical items. However, these reuse functions need to be identified and built into future logical systems to enable them to effectively have a secondary function. These technologies and innovations will help future logistics systems to support multiple exploration missions much more efficiently.

A window of opportunity for climate-change adaptation: Easing tree mortality by reducing forest basal area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradford, John B.; Bell, David M.

2017-01-01

Increasing aridity as a result of climate change is expected to exacerbate tree mortality. Reducing forest basal area – the cross-sectional area of tree stems within a given ground area – can decrease tree competition, which may reduce drought-induced tree mortality. However, neither the magnitude of expected mortality increases, nor the potential effectiveness of basal area reduction, has been quantified in dryland forests such as those of the drought-prone Southwest US. We used thousands of repeatedly measured forest plots to show that unusually warm and dry conditions are related to high tree mortality rates and that mortality is positively related to basal area. Those relationships suggest that while increasing high temperature extremes forecasted by climate models may lead to elevated tree mortality during the 21st century, future tree mortality might be partly ameliorated by reducing stand basal area. This adaptive forest management strategy may provide a window of opportunity for forest managers and policy makers to guide forest transitions to species and/or genotypes more suited to future climates.

Primary-care-based social prescribing for mental health: an analysis of financial and environmental sustainability.

PubMed

Maughan, Daniel L; Patel, Alisha; Parveen, Tahmina; Braithwaite, Isobel; Cook, Jonathan; Lillywhite, Rob; Cooke, Matthew

2016-03-01

Aim To assess the effects of a social prescribing service development on healthcare use and the subsequent economic and environmental costs. Social prescribing services for mental healthcare create links with support in the community for people using primary care. Social prescribing services may reduce future healthcare use, and therefore reduce the financial and environmental costs of healthcare, by providing structured psychosocial support. The National Health Service (NHS) is required to reduce its carbon footprint by 80% by 2050 according to the Climate Change Act (2008). This study is the first of its kind to analyse both the financial and environmental impacts associated with healthcare use following social prescribing. The value of this observational study lies in its novel methodology of analysing the carbon footprint of a service at the primary-care level. An observational study was carried out to assess the impact of the service on the financial and environmental impacts of healthcare use. GP appointments, psychotropic medications and secondary-care referrals were measured. Findings Results demonstrate no statistical difference in the financial and carbon costs of healthcare use between groups. Social prescribing showed a trend towards reduced healthcare use, mainly due to a reduction in secondary-care referrals compared with controls. The associations found did not achieve significance due to the small sample size leading to a large degree of uncertainty regarding differences. This study demonstrates that these services are potentially able to pay for themselves through reducing future healthcare costs and are effective, low-carbon interventions, when compared with cognitive behavioral therapy or antidepressants. This is an important finding in light of Government targets for the NHS to reduce its carbon footprint by 80% by 2050. Larger studies are required to investigate the potentials of social prescribing services further.

Vegetation masking effect on future warming and snow albedo feedback in a boreal forest region of northern Eurasia according to MIROC-ESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe, Manabu; Takata, Kumiko; Kawamiya, Michio; Watanabe, Shingo

2017-09-01

The Earth system model, Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-Earth system model (MIROC-ESM), in which the leaf area index (LAI) is calculated interactively with an ecological land model, simulated future changes in the snow water equivalent under the scenario of global warming. Using MIROC-ESM, the effects of the snow albedo feedback (SAF) in a boreal forest region of northern Eurasia were examined under the possible climate future scenario RCP8.5. The simulated surface air temperature (SAT) in spring greatly increases across Siberia and the boreal forest region, whereas the snow cover decreases remarkably only in western Eurasia. The large increase in SAT across Siberia is attributed to strong SAF, which is caused by both the reduced snow-covered fraction and the reduced surface albedo of the snow-covered portion due to the vegetation masking effect in those grid cells. A comparison of the future changes with and without interactive LAI changes shows that in Siberia, the vegetation masking effect increases the spring SAF by about two or three times and enhances the spring warming by approximately 1.5 times. This implies that increases in vegetation biomass in the future are a potential contributing factor to warming trends and that further research on the vegetation masking effect is needed for reliable future projection.

Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: comparison of two scenarios.

PubMed

Lane, Diana R; Ready, Richard C; Buddemeier, Robert W; Martinich, Jeremy A; Shouse, Kate Cardamone; Wobus, Cameron W

2013-01-01

The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a "business as usual" (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated "avoided loss" from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100.

Quantifying and Valuing Potential Climate Change Impacts on Coral Reefs in the United States: Comparison of Two Scenarios

PubMed Central

Lane, Diana R.; Ready, Richard C.; Buddemeier, Robert W.; Martinich, Jeremy A.; Shouse, Kate Cardamone; Wobus, Cameron W.

2013-01-01

The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a “business as usual” (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated “avoided loss” from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100. PMID:24391717

The future of Arctic benthos: Expansion, invasion, and biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renaud, Paul E.; Sejr, Mikael K.; Bluhm, Bodil A.; Sirenko, Boris; Ellingsen, Ingrid H.

2015-12-01

One of the logical predictions for a future Arctic characterized by warmer waters and reduced sea-ice is that new taxa will expand or invade Arctic seafloor habitats. Specific predictions regarding where this will occur and which taxa are most likely to become established or excluded are lacking, however. We synthesize recent studies and conduct new analyses in the context of climate forecasts and a paleontological perspective to make concrete predictions as to relevant mechanisms, regions, and functional traits contributing to future biodiversity changes. Historically, a warmer Arctic is more readily invaded or transited by boreal taxa than it is during cold periods. Oceanography of an ice-free Arctic Ocean, combined with life-history traits of invading taxa and availability of suitable habitat, determine expansion success. It is difficult to generalize as to which taxonomic groups or locations are likely to experience expansion, however, since species-specific, and perhaps population-specific autecologies, will determine success or failure. Several examples of expansion into the Arctic have been noted, and along with the results from the relatively few Arctic biological time-series suggest inflow shelves (Barents and Chukchi Seas), as well as West Greenland and the western Kara Sea, are most likely locations for expansion. Apparent temperature thresholds were identified for characteristic Arctic and boreal benthic fauna suggesting strong potential for range constrictions of Arctic, and expansions of boreal, fauna in the near future. Increasing human activities in the region could speed introductions of boreal fauna and reduce the value of a planktonic dispersal stage. Finally, shelf regions are likely to experience a greater impact, and also one with greater potential consequences, than the deep Arctic basin. Future research strategies should focus on monitoring as well as compiling basic physiological and life-history information of Arctic and boreal taxa, and integrate that with projections of human activities and likely ecosystem consequences to facilitate development of management strategies now and in the future.

Mitigating methane emission from paddy soil with rice-straw biochar amendment under projected climate change

PubMed Central

Han, Xingguo; Sun, Xue; Wang, Cheng; Wu, Mengxiong; Dong, Da; Zhong, Ting; Thies, Janice E.; Wu, Weixiang

2016-01-01

Elevated global temperatures and increased concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere associated with climate change will exert profound effects on rice cropping systems, particularly on their greenhouse gas emitting potential. Incorporating biochar into paddy soil has been shown previously to reduce methane (CH4) emission from paddy rice under ambient temperature and CO2. We examined the ability of rice straw-derived biochar to reduce CH4 emission from paddy soil under elevated temperature and CO2 concentrations expected in the future. Adding biochar to paddy soil reduced CH4 emission under ambient conditions and significantly reduced emissions by 39.5% (ranging from 185.4 mg kg−1 dry weight soil, dws season−1 to 112.2 mg kg−1 dws season−1) under simultaneously elevated temperature and CO2. Reduced CH4 release was mainly attributable to the decreased activity of methanogens along with the increased CH4 oxidation activity and pmoA gene abundance of methanotrophs. Our findings highlight the valuable services of biochar amendment for CH4 control from paddy soil in a future that will be shaped by climate change. PMID:27090814

Using a full annual cycle model to evaluate long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's warbler after successful recovery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Donald J.; Ribic, Christine; Donner, Deahn M.; Nelson, Mark D.; Bocetti, Carol I.; Deloria-Sheffield, Christie M.

2017-01-01

Long-term management planning for conservation-reliant migratory songbirds is particularly challenging because habitat quality in different stages and geographic locations of the annual cycle can have direct and carry-over effects that influence the population dynamics. The Neotropical migratory songbird Kirtland's warbler Setophaga kirtlandii (Baird 1852) is listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and Near Threatened under the IUCN Red List. This conservation-reliant species is being considered for U.S. federal delisting because the species has surpassed the designated 1000 breeding pairs recovery threshold since 2001.To help inform the delisting decision and long-term management efforts, we developed a population simulation model for the Kirtland's warbler that incorporated both breeding and wintering grounds habitat dynamics, and projected population viability based on current environmental conditions and potential future management scenarios. Future management scenarios included the continuation of current management conditions, reduced productivity and carrying capacity due to the changes in habitat suitability from the creation of experimental jack pine Pinus banksiana (Lamb.) plantations, and reduced productivity from alteration of the brown-headed cowbird Molothrus ater (Boddaert 1783) removal programme.Linking wintering grounds precipitation to productivity improved the accuracy of the model for replicating past observed population dynamics. Our future simulations indicate that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under two potential future management scenarios: (i) continuation of current management practices and (ii) spatially restricting cowbird removal to the core breeding area, assuming that cowbirds reduce productivity in the remaining patches by ≤41%. The additional future management scenarios we assessed resulted in population declines.Synthesis and applications. Our study indicates that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under current management conditions and that the jack pine plantation and cowbird removal programmes continue to be necessary for the long-term persistence of the species. This study represents one of the first attempts to incorporate full annual cycle dynamics into a population viability analysis for a migratory bird, and our results indicate that incorporating wintering grounds dynamics improved the model performance.

Total Reducing Capacity in Aquifer Minerals and Sediments: Quantifying the Potential to Attenuate Cr(VI) in Groundwater

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sisman, S. Lara

2015-07-20

Hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), is present in the environment as a byproduct of industrial processes. Due to its mobility and toxicity, it is crucial to attenuate or remove Cr(VI) from the environment. The objective of this investigation was to quantify potential natural attenuation, or reduction capacity, of reactive minerals and aquifer sediments. Samples of reduced-iron containing minerals such as ilmenite, as well as Puye Formation sediments representing a contaminated aquifer in New Mexico, were reacted with chromate. The change in Cr(VI) during the reaction was used to calculate reduction capacity. This study found that minerals that contain reduced iron, such asmore » ilmenite, have high reducing capacities. The data indicated that sample history may impact reduction capacity tests due to surface passivation. Further, this investigation identified areas for future research including: a) refining the relationships between iron content, magnetic susceptibility and reduction capacity, and b) long term kinetic testing using fresh aquifer sediments.« less

CERES-Maize model-based simulation of climate change impacts on maize yields and potential adaptive measures in Heilongjiang Province, China.

PubMed

Lin, Yumei; Wu, Wenxiang; Ge, Quansheng

2015-11-01

Climate change would cause negative impacts on future agricultural production and food security. Adaptive measures should be taken to mitigate the adverse effects. The objectives of this study were to simulate the potential effects of climate change on maize yields in Heilongjiang Province and to evaluate two selected typical household-level autonomous adaptive measures (cultivar changes and planting time adjustments) for mitigating the risks of climate change based on the CERES-Maize model. The results showed that flowering duration and maturity duration of maize would be shortened in the future climate and thus maize yield would reduce by 11-46% during 2011-2099 relative to 1981-2010. Increased CO2 concentration would not benefit maize production significantly. However, substituting local cultivars with later-maturing ones and delaying the planting date could increase yields as the climate changes. The results provide insight regarding the likely impacts of climate change on maize yields and the efficacy of selected adaptive measures by presenting evidence-based implications and mitigation strategies for the potential negative impacts of future climate change. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

A synoptic climatology for forest fires in the NE US and future implications for GCM simulations

Treesearch

Yan Qing; Ronald Sabo; Yiqiang Wu; J.Y. Zhu

1994-01-01

We studied surface-pressure patterns corresponding to reduced precipitation, high evaporation potential, and enhanced forest-fire danger for West Virginia, which experienced extensive forest-fire damage in November 1987. From five years of daily weather maps we identified eight weather patterns that describe distinctive flow situations throughout the year. Map patterns...

Informing Lake Erie agriculture nutrient management via scenario evaluation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scavia, Donald; Kalcic, Margaret; Muenich, Rebecca Logsdon; Aloysius, Noel; Arnold, Jeffrey; Boles, Chelsie; Confesor, Remegio; DePinto, Joseph; Gildow, Marie; Martin, Jay; Read, Jennifer; Redder, Todd; Robertson, Dale M.; Sowa, Scott P.; Wang, Yu-Chen; White, Michael; Yen, Haw

2016-01-01

Therefore, the overall goal of this study was to identify potential options for agricultural management to reduce phosphorus loads and lessen future HABs in Lake Erie. We applied multiple watershed models to test the ability of a series of land management scenarios, developed in consultation with agricultural and environmental stakeholders, to reach the proposed targets. 

Technologies for Future Precision Strike Missile Systems - Missile Aeromechanics Technology

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-07-01

structure materials, composite structure materials, hypersonic insulation materials, multi-spectral domes, and reduced parts count structure. Introduction...high control effectiveness. An inherent disadvantage of a forward swept surface is increased potential for aeroelastic instability. Composite structure...is synergistic with forward swept surfaces because the higher stiffness of composites mitigates aeroelastic instability. Composite material may also

Measuring the effect of fuel treatments on forest carbon using landscape risk analysis

Treesearch

A.A. Ager; M.A. Finney; A. McMahan; J. Carthcart

2010-01-01

Wildfire simulation modelling was used to examine whether fuel reduction treatments can potentially reduce future wildfire emissions and provide carbon benefits. In contrast to previous reports, the current study modelled landscape scale effects of fuel treatments on fire spread and intensity, and used a probabilistic framework to quantify wildfire effects on carbon...

The Potential Role of Natural Gas Power Plants with Carbon Capture and Storage as a Bridge to a Low-Carbon Future

EPA Science Inventory

Natural gas combined-cycle (NGCC) turbines with carbon capture and storage (CCS) are a promising technology for reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the electric sector. However, the high cost and efficiency penalties associated with CCS, as well as methane leakage from nat...

Project: Strategies for Sex Fairness. Profile of a Non-Traditional Student.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mook, Corena; Legg, Marilyn

One of a series of instructional packets to aid schools in reducing sex stereotypes, this inservice guide for use with school personnel is designed to provide vocational educators with clues to potential problems which their nontraditional students may face in their future roles. A picture is presented of nontraditional employees: women sent by…

Forest mensuration with remote sensing: A retrospective and a vision for the future

Treesearch

Randolph H. Wynne

2004-01-01

Remote sensing, while occasionally oversold, has clear potential to reduce the overall cost of traditional forest inventories. Perhaps most important, some of the information needed for more intensive, rather than extensive, forest management is available from remote sensing. These new information needs may justify increased use and the increased cost of remote sensing...

Lox/Gox related failures during Space Shuttle Main Engine development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cataldo, C. E.

1981-01-01

Specific rocket engine hardware and test facility system failures are described which were caused by high pressure liquid and/or gaseous oxygen reactions. The failures were encountered during the development and testing of the space shuttle main engine. Failure mechanisms are discussed as well as corrective actions taken to prevent or reduce the potential of future failures.

Role of Computational Fluid Dynamics and Wind Tunnels in Aeronautics R and D

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malik, Murjeeb R.; Bushnell, Dennis M.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this report is to investigate the status and future projections for the question of supplantation of wind tunnels by computation in design and to intuit the potential impact of computation approaches on wind-tunnel utilization all with an eye toward reducing the infrastructure cost at aeronautics R&D centers. Wind tunnels have been closing for myriad reasons, and such closings have reduced infrastructure costs. Further cost reductions are desired, and the work herein attempts to project which wind-tunnel capabilities can be replaced in the future and, if possible, the timing of such. If the possibility exists to project when a facility could be closed, then maintenance and other associated costs could be rescheduled accordingly (i.e., before the fact) to obtain an even greater infrastructure cost reduction.

Prospective use of unmanned aerial vehicles for military medical evacuation in future conflicts.

PubMed

Handford, Charles; Reeves, F; Parker, P

2018-03-09

In order to continue to deliver outstanding medical care on the battlefield, the UK Defence Medical Services must continue to adapt, overcome and actively embrace change. One potential area is the rapid proliferation and sophistication of automated and remote systems such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). UAVs are already used to deliver blood to remote military locations in Afghanistan and defibrillators to those that need them in the USA and Sweden. An area of future opportunity would be to facilitate rapid evacuation of wounded personnel from high intensity, high threat, remote and austere areas directly to specialist care. Such a capability would reduce threat to human life while allowing rapid extraction of casualties from high risk or inaccessible environments straight back to Role 3 care, all of which in these situations is either not possible or carries too much risk using conventional aerial assets. The article aims to highlight a potential future capability, stimulate debate and reflection, all of which is essential for innovation and future organisational development. The potential uses and benefits of UAVs are highlighted including both the challenges and rewards of utilising UAVs for casualty evacuation. Key benefits are reduced risk to human life, cost, ability to insert into areas conventional aircraft cannot and the rapidity of transfer. Challenges are likely to be airspace management, decisions on appropriate level of care to deliver during transit and ultimately user acceptability. The article also highlights that in order to maximise our ability to exploit new technologies, all arms and trades within the military must be involved in collective research and development. Furthermore, sensible corroboration with private companies will further enhance our ability to acquire products that best serve our needs. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Assessing consumer responses to potential reduced-exposure tobacco products: a review of tobacco industry and independent research methods.

PubMed

Rees, Vaughan W; Kreslake, Jennifer M; Cummings, K Michael; O'Connor, Richard J; Hatsukami, Dorothy K; Parascandola, Mark; Shields, Peter G; Connolly, Gregory N

2009-12-01

Internal tobacco industry documents and the mainstream literature are reviewed to identify methods and measures for evaluating tobacco consumer response. The review aims to outline areas in which established methods exist, identify gaps in current methods for assessing consumer response, and consider how these methods might be applied to evaluate potentially reduced exposure tobacco products and new products. Internal industry research reviewed included published articles, manuscript drafts, presentations, protocols, and instruments relating to consumer response measures were identified and analyzed. Peer-reviewed research was identified using PubMed and Scopus. Industry research on consumer response focuses on product development and marketing. To develop and refine new products, the tobacco industry has developed notable strategies for assessing consumers' sensory and subjective responses to product design characteristics. Independent research is often conducted to gauge the likelihood of future product adoption by measuring consumers' risk perceptions, responses to product, and product acceptability. A model that conceptualizes consumer response as comprising the separate, but interacting, domains of product perceptions and response to product is outlined. Industry and independent research supports the dual domain model and provides a wide range of methods for assessment of the construct components of consumer response. Further research is needed to validate consumer response constructs, determine the relationship between consumer response and tobacco user behavior, and improve reliability of consumer response measures. Scientifically rigorous consumer response assessment methods will provide a needed empirical basis for future regulation of potentially reduced-exposure tobacco products and new products, to counteract tobacco industry influence on consumers, and enhance the public health.

Episodic Future Thinking: Expansion of the Temporal Window in Individuals with Alcohol Dependence.

PubMed

Snider, Sarah E; LaConte, Stephen M; Bickel, Warren K

2016-07-01

Episodic future thinking (EFT) requires an individual to vividly pre-experience a realistic future event. Inspired by previous reports of reducing delay discounting following EFT in other populations, we examined the effects of engaging alcohol-dependent individuals in EFT or episodic recent thinking (ERT; control) to examine its effects on delay discounting and alcohol purchasing. Participants (n = 50) with alcohol dependence were allocated into EFT or ERT groups and asked to generate positive future or recent past events for each of 5 time points. Participants then completed a delay-discounting task, during which event cues were displayed, and a hypothetical alcohol purchase task. EFT significantly increased valuation of future monetary rewards, while decreasing initial consumption (Q0 ) of alcoholic drinks indicative of lower demand intensity. Two additional findings suggest potential moderators of this effect. EFT more readily influenced individuals with lower Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test scores, and self-reported cue valence differed between groups. Together, these results suggest a widening of alcohol-dependent individuals' temporal window following engagement of EFT. While our data suggest that EFT may be moderated by certain susceptibility criteria, exercises such as EFT could be easily adaptable as a potential therapeutic tool for use in rehabilitation programs. Copyright © 2016 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Modeling the effects of potential salinity shifts on the recovery of striped bass in the Savannah River estuary, Georgia-South Carolina, United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reinert, T.R.; Peterson, J.T.

2008-01-01

Increased salinity in spawning and nursery grounds in the Savannah River estuary was cited as the primary cause of a 97% decrease in adult striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and a concomitant 96% decrease in striped bass egg production. Restoration efforts focused on environmental remediation and stock enhancement have resulted in restored salinity patterns and increased egg and adult abundances. However, future water needs or harbor development may preclude further recovery by reducing freshwater inflow or increasing salinity intrusion. To assess the effect of potential changes in the salinity regime, we developed models relating discharge, tidal phase, and salinity to striped bass egg and early larval survival and re-cast these in a quantitative Bayesian belief network. The model indicated that a small upstream shift (???1.67 km) in the salinity regime would have the least impact on striped bass early life history survival, whereas shifts >1.67 km would have progressively larger impacts, with a 8.33-km shift potentially reducing our estimated survival probability by >28%. Such an impact could have cumulative and long-term detrimental effects on the recovery of the Savannah River striped bass population. The available salinity data were collected during average and low flows, so our model represents some typical and some extreme conditions during a striped bass spawning season. Our model is a relatively simplistic, "first-order" attempt at evaluating potential effects of changes in the Savannah River estuarine salinity regime and points to areas of concern and potential future research. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Projected cancer risks potentially related to past, current, and future practices in paediatric CT in the United Kingdom, 1990–2020

PubMed Central

Journy, Neige M Y; Lee, Choonsik; Harbron, Richard W; McHugh, Kieran; Pearce, Mark S; Berrington de González, Amy

2017-01-01

Background: To project risks of developing cancer and the number of cases potentially induced by past, current, and future computed tomography (CT) scans performed in the United Kingdom in individuals aged <20 years. Methods: Organ doses were estimated from surveys of individual scan parameters and CT protocols used in the United Kingdom. Frequencies of scans were estimated from the NHS Diagnostic Imaging Dataset. Excess lifetime risks (ELRs) of radiation-related cancer were calculated as cumulative lifetime risks, accounting for survival probabilities, using the RadRAT risk assessment tool. Results: In 2000–2008, ELRs ranged from 0.3 to 1 per 1000 head scans and 1 to 5 per 1000 non-head scans. ELRs per scan were reduced by 50–70% in 2000–2008 compared with 1990–1995, subsequent to dose reduction over time. The 130 750 scans performed in 2015 in the United Kingdom were projected to induce 64 (90% uncertainty interval (UI): 38–113) future cancers. Current practices would lead to about 300 (90% UI: 230–680) future cancers induced by scans performed in 2016–2020. Conclusions: Absolute excess risks from single exposures would be low compared with background risks, but even small increases in annual CT rates over the next years would substantially increase the number of potential subsequent cancers. PMID:27824812

GHG emissions and mitigation potential in Indian agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vetter, Sylvia; Feliciano, Diana; Sapkota, Tek; Hillier, Jon; Smith, Pete; Stirling, Clare

2016-04-01

India is one of the world's largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter, accounting for about 5% of global emissions with further increases expected in the future. The Government of India aims to reduce emission intensities by 20-25% by 2020 compared with the 2005 level. In a recent departure from past practice the reconvened Council on Climate Change stated that climate change in agriculture would include a component that would focus on reducing emissions in agriculture, particularly methane and nitrous oxide emissions. To develop recommendations for mitigation in agriculture in India, a baseline study is presented to analyse the GHG emissions from agriculture for current management (Directorate of Economics and Statistics of the government of India). This analysis is done for the two states Bihar and Haryana, which differ in their management and practises based on different climate and policies. This first analysis shows were the highest GHG emissions in agriculture is produced and were the highest mitigation potential might be. The GHG emissions and mitigation potential are calculated using the CCAFS Mitigation Option Tool (CCAFS-MOT) (https://ccafs.cgiar.org/mitigation-option-tool-agriculture#.VpTnWL826d4) with modifications for the special modelling. In a second step, stakeholder meetings provided a wide range of possible and definite scenarios (management, policy, technology, costs, etc.) for the future to mitigate emissions in agriculture as well as how to increase productivity. These information were used to create scenarios to give estimates for the mitigation potential in agriculture for India in 2020.

Visualizing Alternative Phosphorus Scenarios for Future Food Security

PubMed Central

Neset, Tina-Simone; Cordell, Dana; Mohr, Steve; VanRiper, Froggi; White, Stuart

2016-01-01

The impact of global phosphorus scarcity on food security has increasingly been the focus of scientific studies over the past decade. However, systematic analyses of alternative futures for phosphorus supply and demand throughout the food system are still rare and provide limited inclusion of key stakeholders. Addressing global phosphorus scarcity requires an integrated approach exploring potential demand reduction as well as recycling opportunities. This implies recovering phosphorus from multiple sources, such as food waste, manure, and excreta, as well as exploring novel opportunities to reduce the long-term demand for phosphorus in food production such as changing diets. Presently, there is a lack of stakeholder and scientific consensus around priority measures. To therefore enable exploration of multiple pathways and facilitate a stakeholder dialog on the technical, behavioral, and institutional changes required to meet long-term future phosphorus demand, this paper introduces an interactive web-based tool, designed for visualizing global phosphorus scenarios in real time. The interactive global phosphorus scenario tool builds on several demand and supply side measures that can be selected and manipulated interactively by the user. It provides a platform to facilitate stakeholder dialog to plan for a soft landing and identify a suite of concrete priority options, such as investing in agricultural phosphorus use efficiency, or renewable fertilizers derived from phosphorus recovered from wastewater and food waste, to determine how phosphorus demand to meet future food security could be attained on a global scale in 2040 and 2070. This paper presents four example scenarios, including (1) the potential of full recovery of human excreta, (2) the challenge of a potential increase in non-food phosphorus demand, (3) the potential of decreased animal product consumption, and (4) the potential decrease in phosphorus demand from increased efficiency and yield gains in crop and livestock systems. PMID:27840814

Visualizing Alternative Phosphorus Scenarios for Future Food Security.

PubMed

Neset, Tina-Simone; Cordell, Dana; Mohr, Steve; VanRiper, Froggi; White, Stuart

2016-01-01

The impact of global phosphorus scarcity on food security has increasingly been the focus of scientific studies over the past decade. However, systematic analyses of alternative futures for phosphorus supply and demand throughout the food system are still rare and provide limited inclusion of key stakeholders. Addressing global phosphorus scarcity requires an integrated approach exploring potential demand reduction as well as recycling opportunities. This implies recovering phosphorus from multiple sources, such as food waste, manure, and excreta, as well as exploring novel opportunities to reduce the long-term demand for phosphorus in food production such as changing diets. Presently, there is a lack of stakeholder and scientific consensus around priority measures. To therefore enable exploration of multiple pathways and facilitate a stakeholder dialog on the technical, behavioral, and institutional changes required to meet long-term future phosphorus demand, this paper introduces an interactive web-based tool, designed for visualizing global phosphorus scenarios in real time. The interactive global phosphorus scenario tool builds on several demand and supply side measures that can be selected and manipulated interactively by the user. It provides a platform to facilitate stakeholder dialog to plan for a soft landing and identify a suite of concrete priority options, such as investing in agricultural phosphorus use efficiency, or renewable fertilizers derived from phosphorus recovered from wastewater and food waste, to determine how phosphorus demand to meet future food security could be attained on a global scale in 2040 and 2070. This paper presents four example scenarios, including (1) the potential of full recovery of human excreta, (2) the challenge of a potential increase in non-food phosphorus demand, (3) the potential of decreased animal product consumption, and (4) the potential decrease in phosphorus demand from increased efficiency and yield gains in crop and livestock systems.

The future of planetary defense

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mainzer, A.

2017-04-01

Asteroids and comets have impacted Earth in the past and will do so in the future. While the frequency of impacts is reasonably well understood on geologic timescales, it is difficult to predict the next sizeable impact on human timescales by extrapolation from population statistics alone. Fortunately, by identifying and tracking individual objects, we can make precise predictions of any potential close encounters with Earth. As more advance notice is provided, the range of possible mitigation options expands. While the chance of an impact is very small, the potential consequences can be severe, meaning that sensible risk reduction measures should be undertaken. By implementing surveys, the risk of an unforeseen impact can be greatly reduced: the first step is finding the objects. Fortunately, the worldwide community of professional and amateur astronomers has made significant progress in discovering large near-Earth objects (NEOs). More than 95% of NEOs capable of causing global devastation (objects larger than 1 km in diameter) have been discovered, and none of these pose an impact hazard in the near future. Infrastructure is in place to link observations and compute close approaches in real time. Interagency and international collaborations have been undertaken to strengthen cooperative efforts to plan potential mitigation and civil defense campaigns. Yet much remains to be done. Approximately 70% of NEOs larger than 140 m (large enough to cause severe regional damage) remain undiscovered. With the existing surveys, it will take decades to identify the rest. Progress can be accelerated by undertaking new surveys with improved sensitivity.