NO REDUCTION IN GENETIC DIVERSITY DESPITE RAPID ADAPTATION IN PCB POLLUTION: IMPLICATIONS FOR CONSERVATION OF LARGE ESTUARINE POPULATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Anthropogenic stressors can have negative fitness impacts on populations by reducing population size through direct mortality or reduced reproduction. Evolutionary consequences of pollutants are inevitable if genetic diversity and structure are changed as a result of these impac...

Local extinction and recolonization, species effective population size, and modern human origins.

PubMed

Eller, Elise; Hawks, John; Relethford, John H

2004-10-01

A primary objection from a population genetics perspective to a multiregional model of modern human origins is that the model posits a large census size, whereas genetic data suggest a small effective population size. The relationship between census size and effective size is complex, but arguments based on an island model of migration show that if the effective population size reflects the number of breeding individuals and the effects of population subdivision, then an effective population size of 10,000 is inconsistent with the census size of 500,000 to 1,000,000 that has been suggested by archeological evidence. However, these models have ignored the effects of population extinction and recolonization, which increase the expected variance among demes and reduce the inbreeding effective population size. Using models developed for population extinction and recolonization, we show that a large census size consistent with the multiregional model can be reconciled with an effective population size of 10,000, but genetic variation among demes must be high, reflecting low interdeme migration rates and a colonization process that involves a small number of colonists or kin-structured colonization. Ethnographic and archeological evidence is insufficient to determine whether such demographic conditions existed among Pleistocene human populations, and further work needs to be done. More realistic models that incorporate isolation by distance and heterogeneity in extinction rates and effective deme sizes also need to be developed. However, if true, a process of population extinction and recolonization has interesting implications for human demographic history.

Genetic Diversity in Introduced Populations with an Allee Effect

PubMed Central

Wittmann, Meike J.; Gabriel, Wilfried; Metzler, Dirk

2014-01-01

A phenomenon that strongly influences the demography of small introduced populations and thereby potentially their genetic diversity is the demographic Allee effect, a reduction in population growth rates at small population sizes. We take a stochastic modeling approach to investigate levels of genetic diversity in populations that successfully overcame either a strong Allee effect, in which populations smaller than a certain critical size are expected to decline, or a weak Allee effect, in which the population growth rate is reduced at small sizes but not negative. Our results indicate that compared to successful populations without an Allee effect, successful populations with a strong Allee effect tend to (1) derive from larger founder population sizes and thus have a higher initial amount of genetic variation, (2) spend fewer generations at small population sizes where genetic drift is particularly strong, and (3) spend more time around the critical population size and thus experience more genetic drift there. In the case of multiple introduction events, there is an additional increase in diversity because Allee-effect populations tend to derive from a larger number of introduction events than other populations. Altogether, a strong Allee effect can either increase or decrease genetic diversity, depending on the average founder population size. By contrast, a weak Allee effect tends to decrease genetic diversity across the entire range of founder population sizes. Finally, we show that it is possible in principle to infer critical population sizes from genetic data, although this would require information from many independently introduced populations. PMID:25009147

Bottleneck Effect on Evolutionary Rate in the Nearly Neutral Mutation Model

PubMed Central

Araki, H.; Tachida, H.

1997-01-01

Variances of evolutionary rates among lineages in some proteins are larger than those expected from simple Poisson processes. This phenomenon is called overdispersion of the molecular clock. If population size N is constant, the overdispersion is observed only in a limited range of 2Nσ under the nearly neutral mutation model, where σ represents the standard deviation of selection coefficients of new mutants. In this paper, we investigated effects of changing population size on the evolutionary rate by computer simulations assuming the nearly neutral mutation model. The size was changed cyclically between two numbers, N(1) and N(2) (N(1) > N(2)), in the simulations. The overdispersion is observed if 2N(2)σ is less than two and the state of reduced size (bottleneck state) continues for more than ~0.1/u generations, where u is the mutation rate. The overdispersion results mainly because the average fitnesses of only a portion of populations go down when the population size is reduced and only in these populations subsequent advantageous substitutions occur after the population size becomes large. Since the fitness reduction after the bottleneck is stochastic, acceleration of the evolutionary rate does not necessarily occur uniformly among loci. From these results, we argue that the nearly neutral mutation model is a candidate mechanism to explain the overdispersed molecular clock. PMID:9335622

Resource depletion through primate stone technology

PubMed Central

Tan, Amanda; Haslam, Michael; Kulik, Lars; Proffitt, Tomos; Malaivijitnond, Suchinda; Gumert, Michael

2017-01-01

Tool use has allowed humans to become one of the most successful species. However, tool-assisted foraging has also pushed many of our prey species to extinction or endangerment, a technology-driven process thought to be uniquely human. Here, we demonstrate that tool-assisted foraging on shellfish by long-tailed macaques (Macaca fascicularis) in Khao Sam Roi Yot National Park, Thailand, reduces prey size and prey abundance, with more pronounced effects where the macaque population size is larger. We compared availability, sizes and maturation stages of shellfish between two adjacent islands inhabited by different-sized macaque populations and demonstrate potential effects on the prey reproductive biology. We provide evidence that once technological macaques reach a large enough group size, they enter a feedback loop – driving shellfish prey size down with attendant changes in the tool sizes used by the monkeys. If this pattern continues, prey populations could be reduced to a point where tool-assisted foraging is no longer beneficial to the macaques, which in return may lessen or extinguish the remarkable foraging technology employed by these primates. PMID:28884681

Convergent evolution of reduced energy demands in extremophile fish

PubMed Central

Arias-Rodriguez, Lenin; Tobler, Michael

2017-01-01

Convergent evolution in organismal function can arise from nonconvergent changes in traits that contribute to that function. Theory predicts that low resource availability and high maintenance costs in extreme environments select for reductions in organismal energy demands, which could be attained through modifications of body size or metabolic rate. We tested for convergence in energy demands and underlying traits by investigating livebearing fish (genus Poecilia) that have repeatedly colonized toxic, hydrogen sulphide-rich springs. We quantified variation in body size and routine metabolism across replicated sulphidic and non-sulphidic populations in nature, modelled total organismal energy demands, and conducted a common-garden experiment to test whether population differences had a genetic basis. Sulphidic populations generally exhibited smaller body sizes and lower routine metabolic rates compared to non-sulphidic populations, which together caused significant reductions in total organismal energy demands in extremophile populations. Although both mechanisms contributed to variation in organismal energy demands, variance partitioning indicated reductions of body size overall had a greater effect than reductions of routine metabolism. Finally, population differences in routine metabolism documented in natural populations were maintained in common-garden reared individuals, indicating evolved differences. In combination with other studies, these results suggest that reductions in energy demands may represent a common theme in adaptation to physiochemical stressors. Selection for reduced energy demand may particularly affect body size, which has implications for life history evolution in extreme environments. PMID:29077740

Inbreeding in Mimulus guttatus Reduces Visitation by Bumble Bee Pollinators

PubMed Central

Carr, David E.; Roulston, T’ai H.; Hart, Haley

2014-01-01

Inbreeding in plants typically reduces individual fitness but may also alter ecological interactions. This study examined the effect of inbreeding in the mixed-mating annual Mimulus guttatus on visitation by pollinators (Bombus impatiens) in greenhouse experiments. Previous studies of M. guttatus have shown that inbreeding reduced corolla size, flower number, and pollen quantity and quality. Using controlled crosses, we produced inbred and outbred families from three different M. guttatus populations. We recorded the plant genotypes that bees visited and the number of flowers probed per visit. In our first experiment, bees were 31% more likely to visit outbred plants than those selfed for one generation and 43% more likely to visit outbred plants than those selfed for two generations. Inbreeding had only a small effect on the number of flowers probed once bees arrived at a genotype. These differences were explained partially by differences in mean floral display and mean flower size, but even when these variables were controlled statistically, the effect of inbreeding remained large and significant. In a second experiment we quantified pollen viability from inbred and self plants. Bees were 37–54% more likely to visit outbred plants, depending on the population, even when controlling for floral display size. Pollen viability proved to be as important as floral display in predicting pollinator visitation in one population, but the overall explanatory power of a multiple regression model was weak. Our data suggested that bees use cues in addition to display size, flower size, and pollen reward quality in their discrimination of inbred plants. Discrimination against inbred plants could have effects on plant fitness and thereby reinforce selection for outcrossing. Inbreeding in plant populations could also reduce resource quality for pollinators, potentially resulting in negative effects on pollinator populations. PMID:25036035

Comparative efficacies of oral ketoconazole and terbinafine for reducing Malassezia population sizes on the skin of Basset Hounds.

PubMed

Guillot, Jacques; Bensignor, Emmanuel; Jankowski, François; Seewald, Wolfgang; Chermette, René; Steffan, Jean

2003-06-01

The objective of this study was to compare the efficacy of oral ketoconazole and terbinafine for reducing population sizes of Malassezia yeasts on canine skin. Twenty-one Basset Hounds were randomised in three groups of seven according to Malassezia populations. Dogs in the first group were treated by oral administration of ketoconazole (Ketofungol) 200 mg, Janssen-Cilag) at 10 mg x kg-1, every 24 h with food, for 3 weeks. Dogs in the second group were treated by oral administration of terbinafine (Lamisil) 250 mg, Novartis) at 30 mg x kg-1, every 24 h with food, for 3 weeks. The seven remaining dogs were used as controls. Malassezia population sizes were assessed by use of contact plates on four cutaneous sites at days 7, 14 and 21. Both ketoconazole and terbinafine were effective in reducing the baseline levels of Malassezia organisms with no significant difference between the two drugs. In further studies, oral terbinafine should be evaluated for the management of canine cases of Malassezia dermatitis.

Can Ingestion of Lead Shot and Poisons Change Population Trends of Three European Birds: Grey Partridge, Common Buzzard, and Red Kite?

PubMed Central

Meyer, Carolyn B.; Meyer, Joseph S.; Francisco, Alex B.; Holder, Jennifer; Verdonck, Frederik

2016-01-01

Little is known about the magnitude of the effects of lead shot ingestion alone or combined with poisons (e.g., in bait or seeds/granules containing pesticides) on population size, growth, and extinction of non-waterbird avian species that ingest these substances. We used population models to create example scenarios demonstrating how changes in these parameters might affect three susceptible species: grey partridge (Perdix perdix), common buzzard (Buteo buteo), and red kite (Milvus milvus). We added or subtracted estimates of mortality due to lead shot ingestion (4–16% of mortality, depending on species) and poisons (4–46% of mortality) reported in the UK or France to observed mortality of studied populations after models were calibrated to observed population trends. Observed trends were decreasing for partridge (in continental Europe), stable for buzzard (in Germany), and increasing for red kite (in Wales). Although lead shot ingestion and poison at modeled levels did not change the trend direction for the three species, they reduced population size and slowed population growth. Lead shot ingestion at modeled rates reduced population size of partridges by 10%, and when combined with bait and pesticide poisons, by 18%. For buzzards, decrease in mean population size by lead shot and poisons combined was much smaller (≤ 1%). The red kite population has been recovering; however, modeled lead shot ingestion reduced its annual growth rate from 6.5% to 4%, slowing recovery. If mortality from poisoned baits could be removed, the kite population could potentially increase at a rapid annual rate of 12%. The effects are somewhat higher if ingestion of these substances additionally causes sublethal reproductive impairment. These results have uncertainty but suggest that declining or recovering populations are most sensitive to lead shot or poison ingestion, and removal of poisoned baits can have a positive impact on recovering raptor populations that frequently feed on carrion. PMID:26799815

Can Ingestion of Lead Shot and Poisons Change Population Trends of Three European Birds: Grey Partridge, Common Buzzard, and Red Kite?

PubMed

Meyer, Carolyn B; Meyer, Joseph S; Francisco, Alex B; Holder, Jennifer; Verdonck, Frederik

2016-01-01

Little is known about the magnitude of the effects of lead shot ingestion alone or combined with poisons (e.g., in bait or seeds/granules containing pesticides) on population size, growth, and extinction of non-waterbird avian species that ingest these substances. We used population models to create example scenarios demonstrating how changes in these parameters might affect three susceptible species: grey partridge (Perdix perdix), common buzzard (Buteo buteo), and red kite (Milvus milvus). We added or subtracted estimates of mortality due to lead shot ingestion (4-16% of mortality, depending on species) and poisons (4-46% of mortality) reported in the UK or France to observed mortality of studied populations after models were calibrated to observed population trends. Observed trends were decreasing for partridge (in continental Europe), stable for buzzard (in Germany), and increasing for red kite (in Wales). Although lead shot ingestion and poison at modeled levels did not change the trend direction for the three species, they reduced population size and slowed population growth. Lead shot ingestion at modeled rates reduced population size of partridges by 10%, and when combined with bait and pesticide poisons, by 18%. For buzzards, decrease in mean population size by lead shot and poisons combined was much smaller (≤ 1%). The red kite population has been recovering; however, modeled lead shot ingestion reduced its annual growth rate from 6.5% to 4%, slowing recovery. If mortality from poisoned baits could be removed, the kite population could potentially increase at a rapid annual rate of 12%. The effects are somewhat higher if ingestion of these substances additionally causes sublethal reproductive impairment. These results have uncertainty but suggest that declining or recovering populations are most sensitive to lead shot or poison ingestion, and removal of poisoned baits can have a positive impact on recovering raptor populations that frequently feed on carrion.

T cell receptor cross-reactivity between similar foreign and self peptides influences naïve cell population size and autoimmunity

PubMed Central

Nelson, Ryan W.; Beisang, Daniel; Tubo, Noah J.; Dileepan, Thamotharampillai; Wiesner, Darin L.; Nielsen, Kirsten; Wüthrich, Marcel; Klein, Bruce S.; Kotov, Dmitri I.; Spanier, Justin A.; Fife, Brian T.; Moon, James J.; Jenkins, Marc K.

2014-01-01

SUMMARY T cell receptor (TCR) cross-reactivity between major histocompatibility complex II (MHCII)-binding self and foreign peptides could influence the naïve CD4+ T cell repertoire and autoimmunity. We found that nonamer peptides that bind to the same MHCII molecule only need to share five amino acids to cross-react on the same TCR. This property was biologically relevant since systemic expression of a self peptide reduced the size of a naïve cell population specific for a related foreign peptide by deletion of cells with cross-reactive TCRs. Reciprocally, an incompletely deleted naïve T cell population specific for a tissue-restricted self peptide could be triggered by related microbial peptides to cause autoimmunity. Thus, TCR cross-reactivity between similar self and foreign peptides can reduce the size of certain foreign peptide-specific T cell populations, and may allow T cell populations specific for tissue-restricted self peptides to cause autoimmunity after infection. PMID:25601203

Real-Time Quantitative PCR Measurement of Ileal Lactobacillus salivarius Populations from Broiler Chickens To Determine the Influence of Farming Practices▿ †

PubMed Central

Harrow, Sally A.; Ravindran, Velmurugu; Butler, Ruth C.; Marshall, John W.; Tannock, Gerald W.

2007-01-01

A real-time quantitative PCR assay targeting a 16S-23S intergenic spacer region sequence was devised to measure the sizes of populations of Lactobacillus salivarius present in ileal digesta collected from broiler chickens. This species has been associated with deconjugation of bile salts in the small bowel and reduced broiler productivity. The assay was tested as a means of monitoring the sizes of L. salivarius populations from broilers fed diets with different compositions, maintained at different stocking densities, or given the antimicrobial drugs bacitracin and monensin in the feed. Stocking densities did not influence the numbers of L. salivarius cells in the ileum. A diet containing meat and bone meal reduced the size of the L. salivarius population relative to that of chickens given the control diet, as did administration of bacitracin and monensin in the feed. These changes in the target bacterial population were associated with improved broiler weight gain. PMID:17890342

Adaptive variation in offspring size in the terrestrial isopod, Armadillidium vulgare

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brody, M.S.; Lawlor, L.R.

1984-01-01

Variation in the birth size of offspring of the terrestrial isopod, Armadillidium vulgare, was observed in laboratory experiments and in field populations. In the laboratory, larger offspring were produced when the mother's food supply was reduced. In field populations, larger offspring were produced during the summer, a period of reduced food availability. Smaller offspring are produced in the spring, when food is readily available. Females may be making larger young to increase survival during the more severe conditions of the summer breeding period.

Improved population estimates through the use of auxiliary information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, D.H.; Ralph, C.J.; Scott, J.M.

1981-01-01

When estimating the size of a population of birds, the investigator may have, in addition to an estimator based on a statistical sample, information on one of several auxiliary variables, such as: (1) estimates of the population made on previous occasions, (2) measures of habitat variables associated with the size of the population, and (3) estimates of the population sizes of other species that correlate with the species of interest. Although many studies have described the relationships between each of these kinds of data and the population size to be estimated, very little work has been done to improve the estimator by incorporating such auxiliary information. A statistical methodology termed 'empirical Bayes' seems to be appropriate to these situations. The potential that empirical Bayes methodology has for improved estimation of the population size of the Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) is explored. In the example considered, three empirical Bayes estimators were found to reduce the error by one-fourth to one-half of that of the usual estimator.

How much gene flow is needed to avoid inbreeding depression in wild tiger populations?

PubMed Central

Kenney, John; Allendorf, Fred W.; McDougal, Charles; Smith, James L. D.

2014-01-01

The number and size of tiger populations continue to decline owing to habitat loss, habitat fragmentation and poaching of tigers and their prey. As a result, tiger populations have become small and highly structured. Current populations have been isolated since the early 1970s or for approximately seven generations. The objective of this study is to explore how inbreeding may be affecting the persistence of remaining tiger populations and how dispersal, either natural or artificial, may reduce the potentially detrimental effect of inbreeding depression. We developed a tiger simulation model and used published levels of genetic load in mammals to simulate inbreeding depression. Following a 50 year period of population isolation, we introduced one to four dispersing male tigers per generation to explore how gene flow from nearby populations may reduce the negative impact of inbreeding depression. For the smallest populations, even four dispersing male tigers per generation did not increase population viability, and the likelihood of extinction is more than 90% within 30 years. Unless habitat connectivity is restored or animals are artificially introduced in the next 70 years, medium size wild populations are also likely to go extinct, with only four to five of the largest wild tiger populations likely to remain extant in this same period without intervention. To reduce the risk of local extinction, habitat connectivity must be pursued concurrently with efforts to increase population size (e.g. enhance habitat quality, increase habitat availability). It is critical that infrastructure development, dam construction and other similar projects are planned appropriately so that they do not erode the extent or quality of habitat for these populations so that they can truly serve as future source populations. PMID:24990671

How much gene flow is needed to avoid inbreeding depression in wild tiger populations?

PubMed

Kenney, John; Allendorf, Fred W; McDougal, Charles; Smith, James L D

2014-08-22

The number and size of tiger populations continue to decline owing to habitat loss, habitat fragmentation and poaching of tigers and their prey. As a result, tiger populations have become small and highly structured. Current populations have been isolated since the early 1970s or for approximately seven generations. The objective of this study is to explore how inbreeding may be affecting the persistence of remaining tiger populations and how dispersal, either natural or artificial, may reduce the potentially detrimental effect of inbreeding depression. We developed a tiger simulation model and used published levels of genetic load in mammals to simulate inbreeding depression. Following a 50 year period of population isolation, we introduced one to four dispersing male tigers per generation to explore how gene flow from nearby populations may reduce the negative impact of inbreeding depression. For the smallest populations, even four dispersing male tigers per generation did not increase population viability, and the likelihood of extinction is more than 90% within 30 years. Unless habitat connectivity is restored or animals are artificially introduced in the next 70 years, medium size wild populations are also likely to go extinct, with only four to five of the largest wild tiger populations likely to remain extant in this same period without intervention. To reduce the risk of local extinction, habitat connectivity must be pursued concurrently with efforts to increase population size (e.g. enhance habitat quality, increase habitat availability). It is critical that infrastructure development, dam construction and other similar projects are planned appropriately so that they do not erode the extent or quality of habitat for these populations so that they can truly serve as future source populations. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Population size estimation in Yellowstone wolves with error-prone noninvasive microsatellite genotypes.

PubMed

Creel, Scott; Spong, Goran; Sands, Jennifer L; Rotella, Jay; Zeigle, Janet; Joe, Lawrence; Murphy, Kerry M; Smith, Douglas

2003-07-01

Determining population sizes can be difficult, but is essential for conservation. By counting distinct microsatellite genotypes, DNA from noninvasive samples (hair, faeces) allows estimation of population size. Problems arise because genotypes from noninvasive samples are error-prone, but genotyping errors can be reduced by multiple polymerase chain reaction (PCR). For faecal genotypes from wolves in Yellowstone National Park, error rates varied substantially among samples, often above the 'worst-case threshold' suggested by simulation. Consequently, a substantial proportion of multilocus genotypes held one or more errors, despite multiple PCR. These genotyping errors created several genotypes per individual and caused overestimation (up to 5.5-fold) of population size. We propose a 'matching approach' to eliminate this overestimation bias.

Efficacy of a 2% climbazole shampoo for reducing Malassezia population sizes on the skin of naturally infected dogs.

PubMed

Cavana, P; Petit, J-Y; Perrot, S; Guechi, R; Marignac, G; Reynaud, K; Guillot, J

2015-12-01

Shampoo therapy is often recommended for the control of Malassezia overgrowth in dogs. The aim of this study was to evaluate the in vivo activity of a 2% climbazole shampoo against Malassezia pachydermatis yeasts in naturally infected dogs. Eleven research colony Beagles were used. The dogs were distributed randomly into two groups: group A (n=6) and group B (n=5). Group A dogs were washed with a 2% climbazole shampoo, while group B dogs were treated with a physiological shampoo base. The shampoos were applied once weekly for two weeks. The population size of Malassezia yeasts on skin was determined by fungal culture through modified Dixon's medium contact plates pressed on left concave pinna, axillae, groins, perianal area before and after shampoo application. Samples collected were compared by Wilcoxon rank sum test. Samples collected after 2% climbazole shampoo application showed a significant and rapid reduction of Malassezia population sizes. One hour after the first climbazole shampoo application, Malassezia reduction was already statistically significant and 15 days after the second climbazole shampoo, Malassezia population sizes were still significantly decreased. No significant reduction of Malassezia population sizes was observed in group B dogs. The application of a 2% climbazole shampoo significantly reduced Malassezia population sizes on the skin of naturally infected dogs. Application of 2% climbazole shampoo may be useful for the control of Malassezia overgrowth and it may be also proposed as prevention when recurrences are frequent. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Large numbers of vertebrates began rapid population decline in the late 19th century

PubMed Central

Li, Haipeng; Xiang-Yu, Jinggong; Dai, Guangyi; Gu, Zhili; Ming, Chen; Yang, Zongfeng; Ryder, Oliver A.; Li, Wen-Hsiung; Fu, Yun-Xin; Zhang, Ya-Ping

2016-01-01

Accelerated losses of biodiversity are a hallmark of the current era. Large declines of population size have been widely observed and currently 22,176 species are threatened by extinction. The time at which a threatened species began rapid population decline (RPD) and the rate of RPD provide important clues about the driving forces of population decline and anticipated extinction time. However, these parameters remain unknown for the vast majority of threatened species. Here we analyzed the genetic diversity data of nuclear and mitochondrial loci of 2,764 vertebrate species and found that the mean genetic diversity is lower in threatened species than in related nonthreatened species. Our coalescence-based modeling suggests that in many threatened species the RPD began ∼123 y ago (a 95% confidence interval of 20–260 y). This estimated date coincides with widespread industrialization and a profound change in global living ecosystems over the past two centuries. On average the population size declined by ∼25% every 10 y in a threatened species, and the population size was reduced to ∼5% of its ancestral size. Moreover, the ancestral size of threatened species was, on average, ∼22% smaller than that of nonthreatened species. Because the time period of RPD is short, the cumulative effect of RPD on genetic diversity is still not strong, so that the smaller ancestral size of threatened species may be the major cause of their reduced genetic diversity; RPD explains 24.1–37.5% of the difference in genetic diversity between threatened and nonthreatened species. PMID:27872315

Targeting the T-Lak cell originated protein kinase by OTS964 shrinks the size of power-law coded heterogeneous glioma stem cell populations

PubMed Central

Sugimori, Michiya; Hayakawa, Yumiko; Koh, Masaki; Hayashi, Tomohide; Tamura, Ryoi; Kuroda, Satoshi

2018-01-01

Glioblastoma resists chemoradiotherapy, then, recurs to be a fatal space-occupying lesion. The recurrence is caused by re-growing cell populations such as glioma stem cells (GSCs), suggesting that GSC populations should be targeted. This study addressed whether a novel anti-cancer drug, OTS964, an inhibitor for T-LAK cell originated protein kinase (TOPK), is effective in reducing the size of the heterogeneous GSC populations, a power-law coded heterogeneous GSC populations consisting of glioma sphere (GS) clones, by detailing quantitative growth properties. We found that OTS964 killed GS clones while suppressing the growth of surviving GS clones, thus identifying clone-eliminating and growth-disturbing efficacies of OTS964. The efficacies led to a significant size reduction in GS populations in a dose-dependent manner. The surviving GS clones reconstructed GS populations in the following generations; the recovery of GS populations fits a recurrence after the chemotherapy. The recovering GS clones resisted the clone-eliminating effect of OTS964 in sequential exposure during the growth recovery. However, surprisingly, the resistant properties of the recovered-GS clones had been plastically canceled during self-renewal, and then the GS clones had become re-sensitive to OTS964. Thus, OTS964 targets GSCs to eliminate them or suppress their growth, resulting in shrinkage of the power-law coded GSC populations. We propose a therapy focusing on long-term control in recurrence of glioblastoma via reducing the size of the GSC populations by OTS964. PMID:29423027

Targeting the T-Lak cell originated protein kinase by OTS964 shrinks the size of power-law coded heterogeneous glioma stem cell populations.

PubMed

Sugimori, Michiya; Hayakawa, Yumiko; Koh, Masaki; Hayashi, Tomohide; Tamura, Ryoi; Kuroda, Satoshi

2018-01-09

Glioblastoma resists chemoradiotherapy, then, recurs to be a fatal space-occupying lesion. The recurrence is caused by re-growing cell populations such as glioma stem cells (GSCs), suggesting that GSC populations should be targeted. This study addressed whether a novel anti-cancer drug, OTS964, an inhibitor for T-LAK cell originated protein kinase (TOPK), is effective in reducing the size of the heterogeneous GSC populations, a power-law coded heterogeneous GSC populations consisting of glioma sphere (GS) clones, by detailing quantitative growth properties. We found that OTS964 killed GS clones while suppressing the growth of surviving GS clones, thus identifying clone-eliminating and growth-disturbing efficacies of OTS964. The efficacies led to a significant size reduction in GS populations in a dose-dependent manner. The surviving GS clones reconstructed GS populations in the following generations; the recovery of GS populations fits a recurrence after the chemotherapy. The recovering GS clones resisted the clone-eliminating effect of OTS964 in sequential exposure during the growth recovery. However, surprisingly, the resistant properties of the recovered-GS clones had been plastically canceled during self-renewal, and then the GS clones had become re-sensitive to OTS964. Thus, OTS964 targets GSCs to eliminate them or suppress their growth, resulting in shrinkage of the power-law coded GSC populations. We propose a therapy focusing on long-term control in recurrence of glioblastoma via reducing the size of the GSC populations by OTS964.

Addressing Institutional Amplifiers in the Dynamics and Control of Tuberculosis Epidemics

PubMed Central

Basu, Sanjay; Stuckler, David; McKee, Martin

2011-01-01

Tuberculosis outbreaks originating in prisons, mines, or hospital wards can spread to the larger community. Recent proposals have targeted these high-transmission institutional amplifiers by improving case detection, treatment, or reducing the size of the exposed population. However, what effects these alternative proposals may have is unclear. We mathematically modeled these control strategies and found case detection and treatment methods insufficient in addressing epidemics involving common types of institutional amplifiers. Movement of persons in and out of amplifiers fundamentally altered the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis in a manner not effectively mitigated by detection or treatment alone. Policies increasing the population size exposed to amplifiers or the per-person duration of exposure within amplifiers potentially worsened incidence, even in settings with high rates of detection and treatment success. However, reducing the total population size entering institutional amplifiers significantly lowered tuberculosis incidence and the risk of propagating new drug-resistant tuberculosis strains. PMID:21212197

Estimating population size for Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus L.) with spatial capture-recapture models based on genotypes from one field sample

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mollet, Pierre; Kery, Marc; Gardner, Beth; Pasinelli, Gilberto; Royle, Andy

2015-01-01

We conducted a survey of an endangered and cryptic forest grouse, the capercaillie Tetrao urogallus, based on droppings collected on two sampling occasions in eight forest fragments in central Switzerland in early spring 2009. We used genetic analyses to sex and individually identify birds. We estimated sex-dependent detection probabilities and population size using a modern spatial capture-recapture (SCR) model for the data from pooled surveys. A total of 127 capercaillie genotypes were identified (77 males, 46 females, and 4 of unknown sex). The SCR model yielded atotal population size estimate (posterior mean) of 137.3 capercaillies (posterior sd 4.2, 95% CRI 130–147). The observed sex ratio was skewed towards males (0.63). The posterior mean of the sex ratio under the SCR model was 0.58 (posterior sd 0.02, 95% CRI 0.54–0.61), suggesting a male-biased sex ratio in our study area. A subsampling simulation study indicated that a reduced sampling effort representing 75% of the actual detections would still yield practically acceptable estimates of total size and sex ratio in our population. Hence, field work and financial effort could be reduced without compromising accuracy when the SCR model is used to estimate key population parameters of cryptic species.

Population genomics of eusocial insects: the costs of a vertebrate-like effective population size.

PubMed

Romiguier, J; Lourenco, J; Gayral, P; Faivre, N; Weinert, L A; Ravel, S; Ballenghien, M; Cahais, V; Bernard, A; Loire, E; Keller, L; Galtier, N

2014-03-01

The evolution of reproductive division of labour and social life in social insects has lead to the emergence of several life-history traits and adaptations typical of larger organisms: social insect colonies can reach masses of several kilograms, they start reproducing only when they are several years old, and can live for decades. These features and the monopolization of reproduction by only one or few individuals in a colony should affect molecular evolution by reducing the effective population size. We tested this prediction by analysing genome-wide patterns of coding sequence polymorphism and divergence in eusocial vs. noneusocial insects based on newly generated RNA-seq data. We report very low amounts of genetic polymorphism and an elevated ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous changes – a marker of the effective population size – in four distinct species of eusocial insects, which were more similar to vertebrates than to solitary insects regarding molecular evolutionary processes. Moreover, the ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitutions was positively correlated with the level of social complexity across ant species. These results are fully consistent with the hypothesis of a reduced effective population size and an increased genetic load in eusocial insects, indicating that the evolution of social life has important consequences at both the genomic and population levels. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Symmetry breaking in two interacting populations of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons.

PubMed

Ratas, Irmantas; Pyragas, Kestutis

2017-10-01

We analyze the dynamics of two coupled identical populations of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons, which represent the canonical model for class I neurons near the spiking threshold. The populations are heterogeneous; they include both inherently spiking and excitable neurons. The coupling within and between the populations is global via synapses that take into account the finite width of synaptic pulses. Using a recently developed reduction method based on the Lorentzian ansatz, we derive a closed system of equations for the neuron's firing rates and the mean membrane potentials in both populations. The reduced equations are exact in the infinite-size limit. The bifurcation analysis of the equations reveals a rich variety of nonsymmetric patterns, including a splay state, antiphase periodic oscillations, chimera-like states, and chaotic oscillations as well as bistabilities between various states. The validity of the reduced equations is confirmed by direct numerical simulations of the finite-size networks.

Symmetry breaking in two interacting populations of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratas, Irmantas; Pyragas, Kestutis

2017-10-01

We analyze the dynamics of two coupled identical populations of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons, which represent the canonical model for class I neurons near the spiking threshold. The populations are heterogeneous; they include both inherently spiking and excitable neurons. The coupling within and between the populations is global via synapses that take into account the finite width of synaptic pulses. Using a recently developed reduction method based on the Lorentzian ansatz, we derive a closed system of equations for the neuron's firing rates and the mean membrane potentials in both populations. The reduced equations are exact in the infinite-size limit. The bifurcation analysis of the equations reveals a rich variety of nonsymmetric patterns, including a splay state, antiphase periodic oscillations, chimera-like states, and chaotic oscillations as well as bistabilities between various states. The validity of the reduced equations is confirmed by direct numerical simulations of the finite-size networks.

Bet-hedging applications for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyce, M.S.; Kirsch, E.M.; Servheen, C.

2002-01-01

One of the early tenets of conservation biology is that population viability is enhanced by maintaining multiple populations of a species. The strength of this tenet is justified by principles of bet-hedging. Management strategies that reduce variance in population size will also reduce risk of extinction. Asynchrony in population fluctuations in independent populations reduces variance in the aggregate of populations whereas environmental correlation among areas increases the risk that all populations will go extinct. We review the theoretical rationale of bet-hedging and suggest applications for conservation management of least terns in Nebraska and grizzly bears in the northern Rocky Mountains of the United States. The risk of extinction for least terns will be reduced if we can sustain the small central Platte River population in addition to the larger population on the lower Platte. Similarly, by restoring grizzly bears to the Bitterroot wilderness of Idaho and Montana can reduce the probability of extinction for grizzly bears in the Rocky Mountains of the United States by as much as 69-93%.

Introduced species and their missing parasites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Torchin, Mark E.; Lafferty, Kevin D.; Dobson, Andrew P.; McKenzie, Valerie J.; Kuris, Armand M.

2003-01-01

Damage caused by introduced species results from the high population densities and large body sizes that they attain in their new location. Escape from the effects of natural enemies is a frequent explanation given for the success of introduced species. Because some parasites can reduce host density and decrease body size, an invader that leaves parasites behind and encounters few new parasites can experience a demographic release and become a pest. To test whether introduced species are less parasitized, we have compared the parasites of exotic species in their native and introduced ranges, using 26 host species of molluscs, crustaceans, fishes, birds, mammals, amphibians and reptiles. Here we report that the number of parasite species found in native populations is twice that found in exotic populations. In addition, introduced populations are less heavily parasitized (in terms of percentage infected) than are native populations. Reduced parasitization of introduced species has several causes, including reduced probability of the introduction of parasites with exotic species (or early extinction after host establishment), absence of other required hosts in the new location, and the host-specific limitations of native parasites adapting to new hosts.

The non-linear relationship between body size and function in parrotfishes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lokrantz, J.; Nyström, M.; Thyresson, M.; Johansson, C.

2008-12-01

Parrotfishes are a group of herbivores that play an important functional role in structuring benthic communities on coral reefs. Increasingly, these fish are being targeted by fishermen, and resultant declines in biomass and abundance may have severe consequences for the dynamics and regeneration of coral reefs. However, the impact of overfishing extends beyond declining fish stocks. It can also lead to demographic changes within species populations where mean body size is reduced. The effect of reduced mean body size on population dynamics is well described in literature but virtually no information exists on how this may influence important ecological functions. The study investigated how one important function, scraping (i.e., the capacity to remove algae and open up bare substratum for coral larval settlement), by three common species of parrotfishes ( Scarus niger, Chlorurus sordidus, and Chlorurus strongylocephalus) on coral reefs at Zanzibar (Tanzania) was influenced by the size of individual fishes. There was a non-linear relationship between body size and scraping function for all species examined, and impact through scraping was also found to increase markedly when fish reached a size of 15 20 cm. Thus, coral reefs which have a high abundance and biomass of parrotfish may nonetheless be functionally impaired if dominated by small-sized individuals. Reductions in mean body size within parrotfish populations could, therefore, have functional impacts on coral reefs that previously have been overlooked.

Quantitative Genetic Architecture at Latitudinal Range Boundaries: Reduced Variation but Higher Trait Independence.

PubMed

Paccard, Antoine; Van Buskirk, Josh; Willi, Yvonne

2016-05-01

Species distribution limits are hypothesized to be caused by small population size and limited genetic variation in ecologically relevant traits, but earlier studies have not evaluated genetic variation in multivariate phenotypes. We asked whether populations at the latitudinal edges of the distribution have altered quantitative genetic architecture of ecologically relevant traits compared with midlatitude populations. We calculated measures of evolutionary potential in nine Arabidopsis lyrata populations spanning the latitudinal range of the species in eastern and midwestern North America. Environments at the latitudinal extremes have reduced water availability, and therefore plants were assessed under wet and dry treatments. We estimated genetic variance-covariance (G-) matrices for 10 traits related to size, development, and water balance. Populations at southern and northern distribution edges had reduced levels of genetic variation across traits, but their G-matrices were more spherical; G-matrix orientation was unrelated to latitude. As a consequence, the predicted short-term response to selection was at least as strong in edge populations as in central populations. These results are consistent with genetic drift eroding variation and reducing the effectiveness of correlational selection at distribution margins. We conclude that genetic variation of isolated traits poorly predicts the capacity to evolve in response to multivariate selection and that the response to selection may frequently be greater than expected at species distribution margins because of genetic drift.

A preliminary study of the population-adjusted effectiveness of substance abuse prevention programming: towards making IOM program types comparable.

PubMed

Shamblen, Stephen R; Derzon, James H

2009-03-01

The Institute of Medicine distinguishes between programs based on who is targeted: the entire population (universal), those at risk (selective), or persons exhibiting the early stages of use or related problem behavior (indicated). Evaluations suggest that although universal programs can be effective in reducing and preventing substance use, selective and indicated programs are both more effective and have greater cost-benefit ratios. This paper tests these assumptions by comparing the impact of these program types in reducing and preventing substance use at the individual level (i.e., those exposed to intervention services) and in the population (i.e., those exposed and not exposed to intervention services). A meta-analysis was performed on 43 studies of 25 programs to examine program comparability across IOM categories. When examining unadjusted effect sizes at the individual level, universal programs were modestly more successful in reducing tobacco use, but selective and indicated programs were modestly more successful in reducing alcohol and marijuana use. When adjusted to the population level, the average effect sizes for selective and indicated programs were reduced by approximately half. At the population level, universal programs were more successful in reducing tobacco and marijuana use and selective and indicated programs were more successful in reducing alcohol use. Editors' Strategic Implications: the authors' focus on the public health value of a prevention strategy is compelling and provides a model for analyses of other strategies and content areas.

Does population size affect genetic diversity? A test with sympatric lizard species.

PubMed

Hague, M T J; Routman, E J

2016-01-01

Genetic diversity is a fundamental requirement for evolution and adaptation. Nonetheless, the forces that maintain patterns of genetic variation in wild populations are not completely understood. Neutral theory posits that genetic diversity will increase with a larger effective population size and the decreasing effects of drift. However, the lack of compelling evidence for a relationship between genetic diversity and population size in comparative studies has generated some skepticism over the degree that neutral sequence evolution drives overall patterns of diversity. The goal of this study was to measure genetic diversity among sympatric populations of related lizard species that differ in population size and other ecological factors. By sampling related species from a single geographic location, we aimed to reduce nuisance variance in genetic diversity owing to species differences, for example, in mutation rates or historical biogeography. We compared populations of zebra-tailed lizards and western banded geckos, which are abundant and short-lived, to chuckwallas and desert iguanas, which are less common and long-lived. We assessed population genetic diversity at three protein-coding loci for each species. Our results were consistent with the predictions of neutral theory, as the abundant species almost always had higher levels of haplotype diversity than the less common species. Higher population genetic diversity in the abundant species is likely due to a combination of demographic factors, including larger local population sizes (and presumably effective population sizes), faster generation times and high rates of gene flow with other populations.

Phenotypic plasticity in sex allocation for a simultaneously hermaphroditic coral reef fish

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, M. K.; Svoboda, A.; Mancilla Cortez, D.

2011-06-01

Phenotypic plasticity can facilitate reproductive strategies that maximize mating success in variable environments and lead to differences in sex allocation among populations. For simultaneous hermaphrodites with sperm competition, including Serranus tortugarum a small coral reef fish, proportional male allocation (testis in total gonad) is often greater where local density or mating group size is higher. We tested whether S. tortugarum reduced male allocation when transplanted from a higher density site to a lower density site. After 4 months, transplants mirrored the sex-allocation patterns of the resident population on their new reef. Transplants had significantly lower male allocation than representatives from their source population, largely as a result of reduced testis mass relative to body size.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

de Vega, F F; Cantu-Paz, E; Lopez, J I

The population size of genetic algorithms (GAs) affects the quality of the solutions and the time required to find them. While progress has been made in estimating the population sizes required to reach a desired solution quality for certain problems, in practice the sizing of populations is still usually performed by trial and error. These trials might lead to find a population that is large enough to reach a satisfactory solution, but there may still be opportunities to optimize the computational cost by reducing the size of the population. This paper presents a technique called plague that periodically removes amore » number of individuals from the population as the GA executes. Recently, the usefulness of the plague has been demonstrated for genetic programming. The objective of this paper is to extend the study of plagues to genetic algorithms. We experiment with deceptive trap functions, a tunable difficult problem for GAs, and the experiments show that plagues can save computational time while maintaining solution quality and reliability.« less

Effects of reduced-impact logging and forest physiognomy on bat populations of lowland Amazonian forest.

Treesearch

Steven J. Presley; Michael R. Willig; Wunderle Jr. Joseph M.; Luis Nélio Saldanha

2008-01-01

1.As human population size increases, demand for natural resources will increase. Logging pressure related to increasing demands continues to threaten remote areas of Amazonian forest. A harvest protocol is required to provide renewable timber resources that meet consumer needs while minimizing negative effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Reduced-impact...

Limited genomic consequences of mixed mating in the recently derived sister species pair, Collinsia concolor and Collinsia parryi.

PubMed

Salcedo, A; Kalisz, S; Wright, S I

2014-07-01

Highly selfing species often show reduced effective population sizes and reduced selection efficacy. Whether mixed mating species, which produce both self and outcross progeny, show similar patterns of diversity and selection remains less clear. Examination of patterns of molecular evolution and levels of diversity in species with mixed mating systems can be particularly useful for investigating the relative importance of linked selection and demographic effects on diversity and the efficacy of selection, as the effects of linked selection should be minimal in mixed mating populations, although severe bottlenecks tied to founder events could still be frequent. To begin to address this gap, we assembled and analysed the transcriptomes of individuals from a recently diverged mixed mating sister species pair in the self-compatible genus, Collinsia. The de novo assembly of 52 and 37 Mbp C. concolor and C. parryi transcriptomes resulted in ~40 000 and ~55 000 contigs, respectively, both with an average contig size ~945. We observed a high ratio of shared polymorphisms to fixed differences in the species pair and minimal differences between species in the ratio of synonymous to replacement substitutions or codon usage bias implying comparable effective population sizes throughout species divergence. Our results suggest that differences in effective population size and selection efficacy in mixed mating taxa shortly after their divergence may be minimal and are likely influenced by fluctuating mating systems and population sizes. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Density-Dependent Effects on Group Size Are Sex-Specific in a Gregarious Ungulate

PubMed Central

Vander Wal, Eric; van Beest, Floris M.; Brook, Ryan K.

2013-01-01

Density dependence can have marked effects on social behaviors such as group size. We tested whether changes in population density of a large herbivore (elk, Cervus canadensis) affected sex-specific group size and whether the response was density- or frequency-dependent. We quantified the probability and strength of changes in group sizes and dispersion as population density changed for each sex. We used group size data from a population of elk in Manitoba, Canada, that was experimentally reduced from 1.20 to 0.67 elk/km2 between 2002 and 2009. Our results indicated that functional responses of group size to population density are sex-specific. Females showed a positive density-dependent response in group size at population densities ≥0.70 elk/km2 and we found evidence for a minimum group size at population density ≤0.70 elk/km2. Changes in male group size were also density-dependent; however, the strength of the relationship was lower than for females. Density dependence in male group size was predominantly a result of fusion of solitary males into larger groups, rather than fusion among existing groups. Our study revealed that density affects group size of a large herbivore differently between males and females, which has important implications for the benefits e.g., alleviating predation risk, and costs of social behaviors e.g., competition for resources and mates, and intra-specific pathogen transmission. PMID:23326502

Public goods games in populations with fluctuating size.

PubMed

McAvoy, Alex; Fraiman, Nicolas; Hauert, Christoph; Wakeley, John; Nowak, Martin A

2018-05-01

Many mathematical frameworks of evolutionary game dynamics assume that the total population size is constant and that selection affects only the relative frequency of strategies. Here, we consider evolutionary game dynamics in an extended Wright-Fisher process with variable population size. In such a scenario, it is possible that the entire population becomes extinct. Survival of the population may depend on which strategy prevails in the game dynamics. Studying cooperative dilemmas, it is a natural feature of such a model that cooperators enable survival, while defectors drive extinction. Although defectors are favored for any mixed population, random drift could lead to their elimination and the resulting pure-cooperator population could survive. On the other hand, if the defectors remain, then the population will quickly go extinct because the frequency of cooperators steadily declines and defectors alone cannot survive. In a mutation-selection model, we find that (i) a steady supply of cooperators can enable long-term population survival, provided selection is sufficiently strong, and (ii) selection can increase the abundance of cooperators but reduce their relative frequency. Thus, evolutionary game dynamics in populations with variable size generate a multifaceted notion of what constitutes a trait's long-term success. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Size-dependent survival of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in summer: effects of water temperature and stream flow.

PubMed

Xu, C L; Letcher, B H; Nislow, K H

2010-06-01

A 5 year individual-based data set was used to estimate size-specific survival rates in a wild brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis population in a stream network encompassing a mainstem and three tributaries (1.5-6 m wetted width), western Massachusetts, U.S.A. The relationships between survival in summer and temperature and flow metrics derived from continuous monitoring data were then tested. Increased summer temperatures significantly reduced summer survival rates for S. fontinalis in almost all size classes in all four sites throughout the network. In contrast, extreme low summer flows reduced survival of large fish, but only in small tributaries, and had no significant effects on fish in smaller size classes in any location. These results provide direct evidence of a link between season-specific survival and environmental factors likely to be affected by climate change and have important consequences for the management of both habitats and populations.

A modified Wright-Fisher model that incorporates Ne: A variant of the standard model with increased biological realism and reduced computational complexity.

PubMed

Zhao, Lei; Gossmann, Toni I; Waxman, David

2016-03-21

The Wright-Fisher model is an important model in evolutionary biology and population genetics. It has been applied in numerous analyses of finite populations with discrete generations. It is recognised that real populations can behave, in some key aspects, as though their size that is not the census size, N, but rather a smaller size, namely the effective population size, Ne. However, in the Wright-Fisher model, there is no distinction between the effective and census population sizes. Equivalently, we can say that in this model, Ne coincides with N. The Wright-Fisher model therefore lacks an important aspect of biological realism. Here, we present a method that allows Ne to be directly incorporated into the Wright-Fisher model. The modified model involves matrices whose size is determined by Ne. Thus apart from increased biological realism, the modified model also has reduced computational complexity, particularly so when Ne⪡N. For complex problems, it may be hard or impossible to numerically analyse the most commonly-used approximation of the Wright-Fisher model that incorporates Ne, namely the diffusion approximation. An alternative approach is simulation. However, the simulations need to be sufficiently detailed that they yield an effective size that is different to the census size. Simulations may also be time consuming and have attendant statistical errors. The method presented in this work may then be the only alternative to simulations, when Ne differs from N. We illustrate the straightforward application of the method to some problems involving allele fixation and the determination of the equilibrium site frequency spectrum. We then apply the method to the problem of fixation when three alleles are segregating in a population. This latter problem is significantly more complex than a two allele problem and since the diffusion equation cannot be numerically solved, the only other way Ne can be incorporated into the analysis is by simulation. We have achieved good accuracy in all cases considered. In summary, the present work extends the realism and tractability of an important model of evolutionary biology and population genetics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Low worldwide genetic diversity in the killer whale (Orcinus orca): implications for demographic history.

PubMed Central

Hoelzel, A Rus; Natoli, Ada; Dahlheim, Marilyn E; Olavarria, Carlos; Baird, Robin W; Black, Nancy A

2002-01-01

A low level of genetic variation in mammalian populations where the census population size is relatively large has been attributed to various factors, such as a naturally small effective population size, historical bottlenecks and social behaviour. The killer whale (Orcinus orca) is an abundant, highly social species with reduced genetic variation. We find no consistent geographical pattern of global diversity and no mtDNA variation within some regional populations. The regional lack of variation is likely to be due to the strict matrilineal expansion of local populations. The worldwide pattern and paucity of diversity may indicate a historical bottleneck as an additional factor. PMID:12137576

The history of effective population size and genetic diversity in the Yellowstone grizzly (Ursus arctos): implications for conservation.

PubMed

Miller, Craig R; Waits, Lisette P

2003-04-01

Protein, mtDNA, and nuclear microsatellite DNA analyses have demonstrated that the Yellowstone grizzly bear has low levels of genetic variability compared with other Ursus arctos populations. Researchers have attributed this difference to inbreeding during a century of anthropogenic isolation and population size reduction. We test this hypothesis and assess the seriousness of genetic threats by generating microsatellite data for 110 museum specimens collected between 1912 and 1981. A loss of variability is detected, but it is much less severe than hypothesized. Variance in allele frequencies over time is used to estimate an effective population size of approximately 80 across the 20th century and >100 currently. The viability of the population is unlikely to be substantially reduced by genetic factors in the next several generations. However, gene flow from outside populations will be beneficial in avoiding inbreeding and the erosion of genetic diversity in the future.

Linkage Disequilibrium in a Finite Population That Is Partially Selfing

PubMed Central

Golding, G. B.; Strobeck, C.

1980-01-01

The linkage disequilibrium expected in a finite, partially selfing population is analyzed, assuming the infinite allele model. Formulas for the expected sum of squares of the linkage disequilibria and the squared standard linkage disequilibrium are derived from the equilibrium values of sixteen inbreeding coefficients required to describe the behavior of the system. These formulas are identical to those obtained with random mating if the effective population size Ne = (1-½S)N and the effective recombination value re = (1-S)r/(1-½S), where S is the proportion of selfing, are substituted for the population size and the recombination value. Therefore, the effect of partial selfing at equilibrium is to reduce the population size by a factor 1-½S and the recombination value by a factor (1-S)/(1-½S). PMID:17249017

Variation in the response of an Arctic top predator experiencing habitat loss: feeding and reproductive ecology of two polar bear populations.

PubMed

Rode, Karyn D; Regehr, Eric V; Douglas, David C; Durner, George; Derocher, Andrew E; Thiemann, Gregory W; Budge, Suzanne M

2014-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have experienced substantial changes in the seasonal availability of sea ice habitat in parts of their range, including the Beaufort, Chukchi, and Bering Seas. In this study, we compared the body size, condition, and recruitment of polar bears captured in the Chukchi and Bering Seas (CS) between two periods (1986-1994 and 2008-2011) when declines in sea ice habitat occurred. In addition, we compared metrics for the CS population 2008-2011 with those of the adjacent southern Beaufort Sea (SB) population where loss in sea ice habitat has been associated with declines in body condition, size, recruitment, and survival. We evaluated how variation in body condition and recruitment were related to feeding ecology. Comparing habitat conditions between populations, there were twice as many reduced ice days over continental shelf waters per year during 2008-2011 in the SB than in the CS. CS polar bears were larger and in better condition, and appeared to have higher reproduction than SB bears. Although SB and CS bears had similar diets, twice as many bears were fasting in spring in the SB than in the CS. Between 1986-1994 and 2008-2011, body size, condition, and recruitment indices in the CS were not reduced despite a 44-day increase in the number of reduced ice days. Bears in the CS exhibited large body size, good body condition, and high indices of recruitment compared to most other populations measured to date. Higher biological productivity and prey availability in the CS relative to the SB, and a shorter recent history of reduced sea ice habitat, may explain the maintenance of condition and recruitment of CS bears. Geographic differences in the response of polar bears to climate change are relevant to range-wide forecasts for this and other ice-dependent species. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Variation in the response of an Arctic top predator experiencing habitat loss: Feeding and reproductive ecology of two polar bear populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rode, Karyn D.; Regehr, Eric V.; Douglas, David C.; Durner, George M.; Derocher, Andrew E.; Thiemann, Gregory W.; Budge, Suzanne M.

2014-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have experienced substantial changes in the seasonal availability of sea ice habitat in parts of their range, including the Beaufort, Chukchi, and Bering Seas. In this study, we compared the body size, condition, and recruitment of polar bears captured in the Chukchi and Bering Seas (CS) between two periods (1986–1994 and 2008–2011) when declines in sea ice habitat occurred. In addition, we compared metrics for the CS population 2008–2011 with those of the adjacent southern Beaufort Sea (SB) population where loss in sea ice habitat has been associated with declines in body condition, size, recruitment, and survival. We evaluated how variation in body condition and recruitment were related to feeding ecology. Comparing habitat conditions between populations, there were twice as many reduced ice days over continental shelf waters per year during 2008–2011 in the SB than in the CS. CS polar bears were larger and in better condition, and appeared to have higher reproduction than SB bears. Although SB and CS bears had similar diets, twice as many bears were fasting in spring in the SB than in the CS. Between 1986–1994 and 2008–2011, body size, condition, and recruitment indices in the CS were not reduced despite a 44-day increase in the number of reduced ice days. Bears in the CS exhibited large body size, good body condition, and high indices of recruitment compared to most other populations measured to date. Higher biological productivity and prey availability in the CS relative to the SB, and a shorter recent history of reduced sea ice habitat, may explain the maintenance of condition and recruitment of CS bears. Geographic differences in the response of polar bears to climate change are relevant to range-wide forecasts for this and other ice-dependent species.

Perspectives on population growth.

PubMed

1996-09-01

Assume that everyone has the same information on population growth. There are many different opinions on what that information means and what should be done about it. Some people worry about current rates of growth, especially in the context of growing per capita consumption, and believe that all reasonable steps should be taken to reduce rates and stabilize population size. Others believe that growing populations can be accommodated by reducing consumption in rich countries, that technological progress will supply the new resources needed, that the development needed to support a larger population can be sustained, that large population size fosters prosperity, or that birth rates are falling and current growth is just temporary. These are all valid positions worthy of at least debate. Interest groups commonly acknowledgement population growth as a significant issue, but offer no response to it. Sometimes the issue goes unrecognized because it conflicts with a more highly valued personal agenda item. Finally, some responses come from confusion and anger rather than reasoning or self-interest. The proponents of these latter arguments bring nothing constructive to the debate.

Evaluation of a method using survey counts and tag data to estimate the number of Pacific walruses (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) using a coastal haulout in northwestern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Battaile, Brian; Jay, Chadwick V.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Fischbach, Anthony S.

2017-01-01

Increased periods of sparse sea ice over the continental shelf of the Chukchi Sea in late summer have reduced offshore haulout habitat for Pacific walruses (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) and increased opportunities for human activities in the region. Knowing how many walruses could be affected by human activities would be useful to conservation decisions. Currently, there are no adequate estimates of walrus abundance in the northeastern Chukchi Sea during summer–early autumn. Estimating abundance in autumn might be possible from coastal surveys of hauled out walruses during periods when offshore sea ice is unavailable to walruses. We evaluated methods to estimate the size of the walrus population that was using a haulout on the coast of northwestern Alaska in autumn by using aerial photography to count the number of hauled out walruses (herd size) and data from 37 tagged walruses to estimate availability (proportion of population hauled out). We used two methods to estimate availability, direct proportions of hauled out tagged walruses and smoothed proportions using local polynomial regression. Point estimates of herd size (4200–38,000 walruses) and total population size (76,000–287,000 walruses) ranged widely among days and between the two methods of estimating availability. Estimates of population size were influenced most by variation in estimates of availability. Coastal surveys might be improved most by counting walruses when the greatest numbers are hauled out, thereby reducing the influence of availability on population size estimates. The chance of collecting data during peak haulout periods would be improved by conducting multiple surveys.

Estimation of the bottleneck size in Florida panthers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Culver, M.; Hedrick, P.W.; Murphy, K.; O'Brien, S.; Hornocker, M.G.

2008-01-01

We have estimated the extent of genetic variation in museum (1890s) and contemporary (1980s) samples of Florida panthers Puma concolor coryi for both nuclear loci and mtDNA. The microsatellite heterozygosity in the contemporary sample was only 0.325 that in the museum samples although our sample size and number of loci are limited. Support for this estimate is provided by a sample of 84 microsatellite loci in contemporary Florida panthers and Idaho pumas Puma concolor hippolestes in which the contemporary Florida panther sample had only 0.442 the heterozygosity of Idaho pumas. The estimated diversities in mtDNA in the museum and contemporary samples were 0.600 and 0.000, respectively. Using a population genetics approach, we have estimated that to reduce either the microsatellite heterozygosity or the mtDNA diversity this much (in a period of c. 80years during the 20th century when the numbers were thought to be low) that a very small bottleneck size of c. 2 for several generations and a small effective population size in other generations is necessary. Using demographic data from Yellowstone pumas, we estimated the ratio of effective to census population size to be 0.315. Using this ratio, the census population size in the Florida panthers necessary to explain the loss of microsatellite variation was c .41 for the non-bottleneck generations and 6.2 for the two bottleneck generations. These low bottleneck population sizes and the concomitant reduced effectiveness of selection are probably responsible for the high frequency of several detrimental traits in Florida panthers, namely undescended testicles and poor sperm quality. The recent intensive monitoring both before and after the introduction of Texas pumas in 1995 will make the recovery and genetic restoration of Florida panthers a classic study of an endangered species. Our estimates of the bottleneck size responsible for the loss of genetic variation in the Florida panther completes an unknown aspect of this account. ?? 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2008 The Zoological Society of London.

How do reproductive skew and founder group size affect genetic diversity in reintroduced populations?

PubMed

Miller, K A; Nelson, N J; Smith, H G; Moore, J A

2009-09-01

Reduced genetic diversity can result in short-term decreases in fitness and reduced adaptive potential, which may lead to an increased extinction risk. Therefore, maintaining genetic variation is important for the short- and long-term success of reintroduced populations. Here, we evaluate how founder group size and variance in male reproductive success influence the long-term maintenance of genetic diversity after reintroduction. We used microsatellite data to quantify the loss of heterozygosity and allelic diversity in the founder groups from three reintroductions of tuatara (Sphenodon), the sole living representatives of the reptilian order Rhynchocephalia. We then estimated the maintenance of genetic diversity over 400 years (approximately 10 generations) using population viability analyses. Reproduction of tuatara is highly skewed, with as few as 30% of males mating across years. Predicted losses of heterozygosity over 10 generations were low (1-14%), and populations founded with more animals retained a greater proportion of the heterozygosity and allelic diversity of their source populations and founder groups. Greater male reproductive skew led to greater predicted losses of genetic diversity over 10 generations, but only accelerated the loss of genetic diversity at small population size (<250 animals). A reduction in reproductive skew at low density may facilitate the maintenance of genetic diversity in small reintroduced populations. If reproductive skew is high and density-independent, larger founder groups could be released to achieve genetic goals for management.

Computer simulation of wolf-removal strategies for animal-damage control

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haight, R.G.; Travis, L.E.; Nimerfro, K.; Mech, L.D.

2002-01-01

Because of the sustained growth of the gray wolf (Canis lupus) population in the western Great Lakes region of the United States, management agencies are anticipating gray wolf removal from the federal endangered species list and are proposing strategies for wolf management. Strategies are needed that would balance public demand for wolf conservation with demand for protection against wolf depredation on livestock, poultry, and pets. We used a stochastic, spatially structured, individually based simulation model of a hypothetical wolf population, representing a small subset of the western Great Lakes wolves, to predict the relative performance of 3 wolf-removal strategies. Those strategies included reactive management (wolf removal occurred in summer after depredation), preventive management (wolves removed in winter from territories with occasional depredation), and population-size management (wolves removed annually in winter from all territories near farms). Performance measures included number of depredating packs and wolves removed, cost, and population size after 20 years. We evaluated various scenarios about immigration, trapping success, and likelihood of packs engaging in depredation. Four robust results emerged from the simulations: 1) each strategy reduced depredation by at least 40% compared with no action, 2) preventive and population-size management removed fewer wolves than reactive management because wolves were removed in winter before pups were born, 3)population-size management was least expensive because repeated annual removal kept most territories near farms free of wolves, and 4) none of the strategies threatened wolf populations unless they were isolated because wolf removal took place near farms and not in wild areas. For isolated populations, reactive management alone ensured conservation and reduced depredation. Such results can assist decision makers in managing gray wolves in the western Great Lakes states.

Genetic health and population monitoring of two small black bear (Ursus americanus) populations in Alabama, with a regional perspective of genetic diversity and exchange

PubMed Central

Waits, Lisette P.; Adams, Jennifer R.; Seals, Christopher L.; Steury, Todd D.

2017-01-01

One of the major concerns in conservation today is the loss of genetic diversity which is a frequent consequence of population isolation and small population sizes. Fragmentation of populations and persecution of carnivores has posed a substantial threat to the persistence of free ranging carnivores in North America since the arrival of European settlers. Black bears have seen significant reductions in range size from their historic extent, which is most pronounced in the southeastern United States and even more starkly in Alabama where until recently bears were reduced to a single geographically isolated population in the Mobile River Basin. Recently a second population has naturally re-established itself in northeastern Alabama. We sought to determine size, genetic diversity and genetic connectivity for these two populations in relation to other regional populations. Both populations of black bears in Alabama had small population sizes and had moderate to low genetic diversity, but showed different levels of connectivity to surrounding populations of bears. The Mobile River Basin population had a small population size at only 86 individuals (76–124, 95% C.I.), the lowest genetic diversity of compared populations (richness = 2.33, Ho and He = 0.33), and showed near complete genetic isolation from surrounding populations across multiple tests. The newly recolonizing population in northeastern Alabama had a small but growing population doubling in 3 years (34 individuals 26–43, 95% C.I.), relatively moderate genetic diversity compared to surrounding populations (richness = 3.32, Ho = 0.53, He = 0.65), and showed a high level of genetic connectivity with surrounding populations. PMID:29117263

Models to compare management options for a protogynous fish.

PubMed

Heppell, Selina S; Heppell, Scott A; Coleman, Felicia C; Koenig, Christopher C

2006-02-01

Populations of gag (Mycteroperca microlepis), a hermaphroditic grouper, have experienced a dramatic shift in sex ratio over the past 25 years due to a decline in older age classes. The highly female-skewed sex ratio can be predicted as a consequence of increased fishing mortality that truncates the age distribution, and raises some concern about the overall fitness of the population. Management efforts may need to be directed toward maintenance of sex ratio as well as stock size, with evaluations of recruitment based on sex ratio or male stock size in addition to the traditional female-based stock-recruitment relationship. We used two stochastic, age-structured models to heuristically compare the effects of reducing fishing mortality on different life history stages and the relative impact of reductions in fertilization rates that may occur with highly skewed sex ratios. Our response variables included population size, sex ratio, lost egg fertility, and female spawning stock biomass. Population growth rates were highest for scenarios that reduced mortality for female gag (nearshore closure), while improved sex ratios were obtained most quickly with spawning reserves. The effect of reduced fertility through sex ratio bias was generally low but depended on the management scenario employed. Our results demonstrate the utility of evaluation of fishery management scenarios through model analysis and simulation, the synergistic interaction of life history and response to changes in mortality rates, and the importance of defining management goals.

The role of sexual selection and conflict in mediating among-population variation in mating strategies and sexually dimorphic traits in Sepsis punctum.

PubMed

Dmitriew, Caitlin; Blanckenhorn, Wolf U

2012-01-01

The black scavenger fly Sepsis punctum exhibits striking among-population variation in the direction and magnitude of sexual size dimorphism, modification to the male forelimb and pre-copulatory behaviour. In some populations, male-biased sexual size dimorphism is observed; in other, less dimorphic, populations males court prior to mating. Such variation in reproductive traits is of interest to evolutionary biologists because it has the potential to limit gene flow among populations, contributing to speciation. Here, we investigate whether large male body size and modified forefemur are associated with higher male mating success within populations, whether these traits are associated with higher mating success among populations, and if these traits carry viability costs that could constrain their response to sexual selection. Flies from five distinct populations were reared at high or low food, generating high and low quality males. The expression of body size, forelimb morphology and courtship rate were each greater at high food, but high food males experienced higher mating success or reduced latency to first copulation in only one of the populations. Among populations, overall mating success increased with the degree of male-bias in overall body size and forelimb modification, suggesting that these traits have evolved as a means of increasing male mating rate. The increased mating success observed in large-male populations raises the question of why variation in magnitude of dimorphism persists among populations. One reason may be that costs of producing a large size constrain the evolution of ever-larger males. We found no evidence that juvenile mortality under food stress was greater for large-male populations, but development time was considerably longer and may represent an important constraint in an ephemeral and competitive growth environment.

Do Reductions in Class Size Raise Students' Test Scores? Evidence from Population Variation in Minnesota's Elementary Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cho, Hyunkuk; Glewwe, Paul; Whitler, Melissa

2012-01-01

Many U.S. states and cities spend substantial funds to reduce class size, especially in elementary (primary) school. Estimating the impact of class size on learning is complicated, since children in small and large classes differ in many observed and unobserved ways. This paper uses a method of Hoxby (2000) to assess the impact of class size on…

Can mesophotic reefs replenish shallow reefs? Reduced coral reproductive performance casts a doubt.

PubMed

Shlesinger, Tom; Grinblat, Mila; Rapuano, Hanna; Amit, Tal; Loya, Yossi

2018-02-01

Mesophotic coral ecosystems (i.e., deep coral reefs at 30-120 m depth) appear to be thriving while many shallow reefs in the world are declining. Amid efforts to understand and manage their decline, it was suggested that mesophotic reefs might serve as natural refuges and a possible source of propagules for the shallow reefs. However, our knowledge of how reproductive performance of corals alters with depth is sparse. Here, we present a comprehensive study of the reproductive phenology, fecundity, and abundance of seven reef-building conspecific corals in shallow and mesophotic habitats. Significant differences were found in the synchrony and timing of gametogenesis and spawning between shallow and mesophotic coral populations. Thus, mesophotic populations exhibited delayed or protracted spawning events, which led to spawning of the mesophotic colonies in large proportions at times where the shallow ones had long been depleted of reproductive material. All species investigated demonstrated a substantial reduction in fecundity and/or oocyte sizes at mesophotic depths (40-60 m). Two species (Seriatopora hystrix and Galaxea fascicularis) displayed a reduction in both fecundity and oocyte size at mesophotic depths. Turbinaria reniformis had only reduced fecundity and Acropora squarrosa and Acropora valida only reduced oocyte size. In Montipora verrucosa, reduced fecundity was found during one annual reproductive season while, in the following year, only reduced oocyte size was found. In contrast, reduced oocyte size in mesophotic populations of Acropora squarrosa was consistent along three studied years. One species, Acropora pharaonis, was found to be infertile at mesophotic depths along two studied years. This indicates that reproductive performance decreases with depth; and that although some species are capable of reproducing at mesophotic depths, their contribution to the replenishment of shallow reefs may be inconsequential. Reduced reproductive performance with depth, combined with the possible narrower tolerance to environmental factors, further suggests that mesophotic corals may in fact be more vulnerable than previously conceived. Furthermore, we posit that the observed temporal segregation in reproduction could lead to assortative mating, and this, in turn, may facilitate adaptive divergence across depth. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Spatio-temporal population structuring and genetic diversity retention in depleted Atlantic Bluefin tuna of the Mediterranean Sea

PubMed Central

Riccioni, Giulia; Landi, Monica; Ferrara, Giorgia; Milano, Ilaria; Cariani, Alessia; Zane, Lorenzo; Sella, Massimo; Barbujani, Guido; Tinti, Fausto

2010-01-01

Fishery genetics have greatly changed our understanding of population dynamics and structuring in marine fish. In this study, we show that the Atlantic Bluefin tuna (ABFT, Thunnus thynnus), an oceanic predatory species exhibiting highly migratory behavior, large population size, and high potential for dispersal during early life stages, displays significant genetic differences over space and time, both at the fine and large scales of variation. We compared microsatellite variation of contemporary (n = 256) and historical (n = 99) biological samples of ABFTs of the central-western Mediterranean Sea, the latter dating back to the early 20th century. Measures of genetic differentiation and a general heterozygote deficit suggest that differences exist among population samples, both now and 96–80 years ago. Thus, ABFTs do not represent a single panmictic population in the Mediterranean Sea. Statistics designed to infer changes in population size, both from current and past genetic variation, suggest that some Mediterranean ABFT populations, although still not severely reduced in their genetic potential, might have suffered from demographic declines. The short-term estimates of effective population size are straddled on the minimum threshold (effective population size = 500) indicated to maintain genetic diversity and evolutionary potential across several generations in natural populations. PMID:20080643

Consistent loss of genetic diversity in isolated cutthroat trout populations independent of habitat size and quality

Treesearch

Kellie J. Carim; Lisa A. Eby; Craig A. Barfoot; Matthew C. Boyer

2016-01-01

Fragmentation and isolation of wildlife populations has reduced genetic diversity worldwide, leaving many populations vulnerable to inbreeding depression and local extinction. Nonetheless, isolation is protecting many native aquatic species from interactions with invasive species, often making reconnection an unrealistic conservation strategy. Isolation management is...

Recent evolution and divergence among populations of a rare Mexican endemic, Chihuahua spruce, following holocene climatic warming

Treesearch

F. Thomas Ledig; Virginia Jacob-Cervantes; Paul D. Hodgskiss

1997-01-01

Fragmentation and reduction in population size are expected to reduce genetic diversity. However, examples from natural populations of forest trees are scarce. The range of Chihuahua spruce retreated northward and fragmented coincident with the warming climate that marked the early Holocene. The isolated populations vary from 15 to 2441 trees, which provided an...

Population size and relatedness affect fitness of a self-incompatible invasive plant.

PubMed

Elam, Diane R; Ridley, Caroline E; Goodell, Karen; Ellstrand, Norman C

2007-01-09

One of the lingering paradoxes in invasion biology is how founder populations of an introduced species are able to overcome the limitations of small size and, in a "reversal of fortune," proliferate in a new habitat. The transition from colonist to invader is especially enigmatic for self-incompatible species, which must find a mate to reproduce. In small populations, the inability to find a mate can result in the Allee effect, a positive relationship between individual fitness and population size or density. Theoretically, the Allee effect should be common in founder populations of self-incompatible colonizing species and may account for the high rate of failed introductions, but little supporting evidence exists. We created a field experiment to test whether the Allee effect affects the maternal fitness of a self-incompatible invasive species, wild radish (Raphanus sativus). We created populations of varying size and relatedness. We measured maternal fitness in terms of both fruit set per flower and seed number per fruit. We found that both population size and the level of genetic relatedness among individuals influence maternal reproductive success. Our results explicitly define an ecological genetic obstacle faced by populations of an exotic species on its way to becoming invasive. Such a mechanistic understanding of the invasions of species that require a mate can and should be exploited for both controlling current outbreaks and reducing their frequency in the future.

Dynamic Properties of the Alkaline Vesicle Population at Hippocampal Synapses

PubMed Central

Röther, Mareike; Brauner, Jan M.; Ebert, Katrin; Welzel, Oliver; Jung, Jasmin; Bauereiss, Anna; Kornhuber, Johannes; Groemer, Teja W.

2014-01-01

In compensatory endocytosis, scission of vesicles from the plasma membrane to the cytoplasm is a prerequisite for intravesicular reacidification and accumulation of neurotransmitter molecules. Here, we provide time-resolved measurements of the dynamics of the alkaline vesicle population which appears upon endocytic retrieval. Using fast perfusion pH-cycling in live-cell microscopy, synapto-pHluorin expressing rat hippocampal neurons were electrically stimulated. We found that the relative size of the alkaline vesicle population depended significantly on the electrical stimulus size: With increasing number of action potentials the relative size of the alkaline vesicle population expanded. In contrast to that, increasing the stimulus frequency reduced the relative size of the population of alkaline vesicles. Measurement of the time constant for reacification and calculation of the time constant for endocytosis revealed that both time constants were variable with regard to the stimulus condition. Furthermore, we show that the dynamics of the alkaline vesicle population can be predicted by a simple mathematical model. In conclusion, here a novel methodical approach to analyze dynamic properties of alkaline vesicles is presented and validated as a convenient method for the detection of intracellular events. Using this method we show that the population of alkaline vesicles is highly dynamic and depends both on stimulus strength and frequency. Our results implicate that determination of the alkaline vesicle population size may provide new insights into the kinetics of endocytic retrieval. PMID:25079223

Floral variation and environmental heterogeneity in a tristylous clonal aquatic of the Pantanal wetlands of Brazil

PubMed Central

Leme da Cunha, Nicolay; Fischer, Erich; Lorenz-Lemke, Aline P.; Barrett, Spencer C. H.

2014-01-01

Background and Aims The balance between stochastic forces and frequency-dependent mating largely governs style morph frequencies in heterostylous populations. In clonal species, deviations from equal morph ratios often result from founder events and unfavourable conditions for sexual reproduction. The aim of this study was to investigate whether different flooding regimes, because of their influence on sexual vs. clonal reproduction, are associated with regional variation in morph frequencies and floral trait differentiation in populations of the clonal, tristylous, aquatic Eichhornia azurea (Pontederiaceae) in the Pantanal wetlands of Brazil. Methods Style morph frequencies were sampled from 73 populations distributed across four flooding regimes differing in depth and duration. Measurements of flower size, sex-organ dimension, pollen size and pollen production were made in selected populations, and pollinator assemblages and their functional traits were recorded. Key Results Most populations of E. azurea were tristylous (78 %), but the majority exhibited uneven morph ratios. The frequency of the mid-styled morph was significantly lower than that of the long- and short-styled morphs. Morph evenness was positively associated with population size but not with flooding regime. There were significant phenotypic differences among flooding regimes for all floral traits, including populations with reduced flower size, sex-organ length and smaller pollen. Pollinator assemblages varied with flood duration. Conclusions The similar morph structure and evenness of populations, regardless of flooding regime, suggest that sexual reproduction and clonal dispersal are sufficiently common to prevent the signature of founder events from dominating in a region. However, the pervasive occurrence of biased morph ratios in most populations suggests that many are in a non-equilibrium state. The reduced frequency of the mid-styled morph in trimorphic and dimorphic populations may be associated with the weak self-incompatibility of this morph resulting in selfing and inbreeding depression. Clonality in E. azurea and the weak self-incompatibility of the mid-styled morph may make it more vulnerable to geitonogamous selfing. PMID:25180289

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of animal populations.

PubMed

Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Sibly, Richard M; Forchhammer, Mads C; Forbes, Valery E; Topping, Christopher J

2010-01-28

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs) of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis), vole (Microtus agrestis), a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros) and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra). This allows us to quantify the population implications of experimental modifications of landscape configuration and composition. Starting with a real agricultural landscape, we progressively reduced landscape complexity by (i) homogenizing habitat patch shapes, (ii) randomizing the locations of the patches, and (iii) randomizing the size of the patches. The first two steps increased landscape fragmentation. We assessed the effects of these manipulations on the long-term persistence of animal populations by measuring equilibrium population sizes and time to recovery after disturbance. Patch rearrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on the population dynamics of species whose local success depends on the surrounding terrain. Landscape modifications that reduced population sizes increased recovery times in the short-dispersing species, making small populations vulnerable to increasing disturbance. The species that were most strongly affected by large disturbances fluctuated little in population sizes in years when no perturbations took place. Traditional approaches to the management and conservation of populations use either classical methods of population analysis, which fail to adequately account for the spatial configurations of landscapes, or landscape ecology, which accounts for landscape structure but has difficulty predicting the dynamics of populations living in them. Here we show how realistic and replicable individual-based models can bridge the gap between non-spatial population theory and non-dynamic landscape ecology. A major strength of the approach is its ability to identify population vulnerabilities not detected by standard population viability analyses.

[Effective size of the early-run sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka population of Lake Azabach'e, Kamchatka Peninsula evaluation of the effect of interaction between subpopulations within a subdivided population].

PubMed

Efremov, V V

2005-05-01

The effect of subdivision on the effective size (Ne) of the early-run sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka population of Lake Azabach'e (Kamchatka Peninsula) has been studied. The mode of this effect is determined by the relative productivity of the subpopulations and its magnitude, by the rate of individual migration among subpopulations and genetic differentiation. If the contributions of subpopulations (offspring numbers) are different, genetic differentiation can reduce the Ne of the subdivided population. At equal subpopulation contributions, genetic differentiation always increases the Ne of the subdivided population in comparison with a panmictic population. We have found that all sockeye salmon subpopulations of Azabach'e Lake produce equal offspring numbers contributing to the next generation. The genetic differentiation between sockeye salmon subpopulations is low, and the subdivision increases the Ne of the early-run race with reference to the sum of the effective sizes of the subpopulations by as little as 2%.

Effects of model complexity and priors on estimation using sequential importance sampling/resampling for species conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

2016-01-01

We examined the effects of complexity and priors on the accuracy of models used to estimate ecological and observational processes, and to make predictions regarding population size and structure. State-space models are useful for estimating complex, unobservable population processes and making predictions about future populations based on limited data. To better understand the utility of state space models in evaluating population dynamics, we used them in a Bayesian framework and compared the accuracy of models with differing complexity, with and without informative priors using sequential importance sampling/resampling (SISR). Count data were simulated for 25 years using known parameters and observation process for each model. We used kernel smoothing to reduce the effect of particle depletion, which is common when estimating both states and parameters with SISR. Models using informative priors estimated parameter values and population size with greater accuracy than their non-informative counterparts. While the estimates of population size and trend did not suffer greatly in models using non-informative priors, the algorithm was unable to accurately estimate demographic parameters. This model framework provides reasonable estimates of population size when little to no information is available; however, when information on some vital rates is available, SISR can be used to obtain more precise estimates of population size and process. Incorporating model complexity such as that required by structured populations with stage-specific vital rates affects precision and accuracy when estimating latent population variables and predicting population dynamics. These results are important to consider when designing monitoring programs and conservation efforts requiring management of specific population segments.

Four types of interference competition and their impacts on the ecology and evolution of size-structured populations and communities.

PubMed

Zhang, Lai; Andersen, Ken H; Dieckmann, Ulf; Brännström, Åke

2015-09-07

We investigate how four types of interference competition - which alternatively affect foraging, metabolism, survival, and reproduction - impact the ecology and evolution of size-structured populations. Even though all four types of interference competition reduce population biomass, interference competition at intermediate intensity sometimes significantly increases the abundance of adult individuals and the population׳s reproduction rate. We find that foraging and metabolic interference evolutionarily favor smaller maturation size when interference is weak and larger maturation size when interference is strong. The evolutionary response to survival interference and reproductive interference is always larger maturation size. We also investigate how the four types of interference competition impact the evolutionary dynamics and resultant diversity and trophic structure of size-structured communities. Like other types of trait-mediated competition, all four types of interference competition can induce disruptive selection and thus promote initial diversification. Even though foraging interference and reproductive interference are more potent in promoting initial diversification, they catalyze the formation of diverse communities with complex trophic structure only at high levels of interference intensity. By contrast, survival interference does so already at intermediate levels, while reproductive interference can only support relatively smaller communities with simpler trophic structure. Taken together, our results show how the type and intensity of interference competition jointly affect coexistence patterns in structured population models. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conserving genomic variability in large mammals: Effect of population fluctuations and variance in male reproductive success on variability in Yellowstone bison

Treesearch

Andres Perez-Figueroa; Rick L. Wallen; Tiago Antao; Jason A. Coombs; Michael K. Schwartz; P. J. White; Gordon Luikart

2012-01-01

Loss of genetic variation through genetic drift can reduce population viability. However, relatively little is known about loss of variation caused by the combination of fluctuating population size and variance in reproductive success in age structured populations. We built an individual-based computer simulation model to examine how actual culling and hunting...

Multidisciplinary population monitoring when demographic data are sparse: a case study of remote trout populations

PubMed Central

Fraser, Dylan J; Calvert, Anna M; Bernatchez, Louis; Coon, Andrew

2013-01-01

The potential of genetic, genomic, and phenotypic metrics for monitoring population trends may be especially high in isolated regions, where traditional demographic monitoring is logistically difficult and only sporadic sampling is possible. This potential, however, is relatively underexplored empirically. Over eleven years, we assessed several such metrics along with traditional ecological knowledge and catch data in a socioeconomically important trout species occupying a large, remote lake. The data revealed largely stable characteristics in two populations over 2–3 generations, but possible contemporary changes in a third population. These potential shifts were suggested by reduced catch rates, reduced body size, and changes in selection implied at one gene-associated single nucleotide polymorphism. A demographic decline in this population, however, was ambiguously supported, based on the apparent lack of temporal change in effective population size, and corresponding traditional knowledge suggesting little change in catch. We illustrate how the pluralistic approach employed has practicality for setting future monitoring efforts of these populations, by guiding monitoring priorities according to the relative merits of different metrics and availability of resources. Our study also considers some advantages and disadvantages to adopting a pluralistic approach to population monitoring where demographic data are not easily obtained. PMID:24455128

Non-additive effects of pollen limitation and self-incompatibility reduce plant reproductive success and population viability

PubMed Central

Young, Andrew G.; Broadhurst, Linda M.; Thrall, Peter H.

2012-01-01

Background and Aims Mating system is a primary determinant of the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of wild plant populations. Pollen limitation and loss of self-incompatibility genotypes can both act independently to reduce seed set and these effects are commonly observed in fragmented landscapes. This study used a simulation modelling approach to assess the interacting effects of these two processes on plant reproductive performance and population viability for a range of pollination likelihood, self-incompatibility systems and S-allele richness conditions. Methods A spatially explicit, individual-based, genetic and demographic simulation model parameterized to represent a generic self-incompatible, short-lived perennial herb was used to conduct simulation experiments in which pollination probability, self-incompatibility type (gametophytic and sporophytic) and S-allele richness were systematically varied in combination to assess their independent and interacting effects on the demographic response variables of mate availability, seed set, population size and population persistence. Key Results Joint effects of reduced pollination probability and low S-allele richness were greater than independent effects for all demographic response variables except population persistence under high pollinator service (>50 %). At intermediate values of 15–25 % pollination probability, non-linear interactions with S-allele richness generated significant reductions in population performance beyond those expected by the simple additive effect of each independently. This was due to the impacts of reduced effective population size on the ability of populations to retain S alleles and maintain mate availability. Across a limited set of pollination and S-allele conditions (P = 0·15 and S = 20) populations with gametophytic SI showed reduced S-allele erosion relative to those with sporophytic SI, but this had limited effects on individual fecundity and translated into only modest increases in population persistence. Conclusions Interactions between pollen limitation and loss of S alleles have the potential to significantly reduce the viability of populations of a few hundred plants. Population decline may occur more rapidly than expected when pollination probabilities drop below 25 % and S alleles are fewer than 20 due to non-additive interactions. These are likely to be common conditions experienced by plants in small populations in fragmented landscapes and are also those under which differences in response between gameptophytic and sporophtyic systems are observed. PMID:22184620

Non-additive effects of pollen limitation and self-incompatibility reduce plant reproductive success and population viability.

PubMed

Young, Andrew G; Broadhurst, Linda M; Thrall, Peter H

2012-02-01

Mating system is a primary determinant of the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of wild plant populations. Pollen limitation and loss of self-incompatibility genotypes can both act independently to reduce seed set and these effects are commonly observed in fragmented landscapes. This study used a simulation modelling approach to assess the interacting effects of these two processes on plant reproductive performance and population viability for a range of pollination likelihood, self-incompatibility systems and S-allele richness conditions. A spatially explicit, individual-based, genetic and demographic simulation model parameterized to represent a generic self-incompatible, short-lived perennial herb was used to conduct simulation experiments in which pollination probability, self-incompatibility type (gametophytic and sporophytic) and S-allele richness were systematically varied in combination to assess their independent and interacting effects on the demographic response variables of mate availability, seed set, population size and population persistence. Joint effects of reduced pollination probability and low S-allele richness were greater than independent effects for all demographic response variables except population persistence under high pollinator service (>50 %). At intermediate values of 15-25 % pollination probability, non-linear interactions with S-allele richness generated significant reductions in population performance beyond those expected by the simple additive effect of each independently. This was due to the impacts of reduced effective population size on the ability of populations to retain S alleles and maintain mate availability. Across a limited set of pollination and S-allele conditions (P = 0·15 and S = 20) populations with gametophytic SI showed reduced S-allele erosion relative to those with sporophytic SI, but this had limited effects on individual fecundity and translated into only modest increases in population persistence. Interactions between pollen limitation and loss of S alleles have the potential to significantly reduce the viability of populations of a few hundred plants. Population decline may occur more rapidly than expected when pollination probabilities drop below 25 % and S alleles are fewer than 20 due to non-additive interactions. These are likely to be common conditions experienced by plants in small populations in fragmented landscapes and are also those under which differences in response between gameptophytic and sporophtyic systems are observed.

Effect of dispersal at range edges on the structure of species ranges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bahn, V.; O'Connor, R.J.; Krohn, W.B.

2006-01-01

Range edges are of particular interest to ecology because they hold key insights into the limits of the realized niche and associated population dynamics. A recent feature of Oikos summarized the state of the art on range edge ecology. While the typical question is what causes range edges, another important question is how range edges influence the distribution of abundances across a species geographic range when dispersal is present. We used a single species population dynamics model on a coupled-lattice to determine the effects of dispersal on peripheral populations as compared to populations at the core of the range. In the absence of resource gradients, the reduced neighborhood and thus lower connectivity or higher isolation among populations at the range edge alone led to significantly lower population sizes in the periphery of the range than in the core. Lower population sizes mean higher extinction risks and lower adaptability at the range edge, which could inhibit or slow range expansions, and thus effectively stabilize range edges. The strength of this effect depended on the potential population growth rate and the maximum dispersal distance. Lower potential population growth rates led to a stronger effect of dispersal resulting in a higher difference in population sizes between the two areas. The differential effect of dispersal on population sizes at the core and periphery of the range in the absence of resource gradients implies that traditional, habitat-based distribution models could result in misleading conclusions about the habitat quality in the periphery. Lower population sizes at the periphery are also relevant to conservation, because habitat removal not only eliminates populations but also creates new edges. Populations bordering these new edges may experience declines, due to their increased isolation. ?? OIKOS.

When stress predicts a shrinking gene pool, trading early reproduction for longevity can increase fitness, even with lower fecundity.

PubMed

Ratcliff, William C; Hawthorne, Peter; Travisano, Michael; Denison, R Ford

2009-06-25

Stresses like dietary restriction or various toxins increase lifespan in taxa as diverse as yeast, Caenorhabditis elegans, Drosophila and rats, by triggering physiological responses that also tend to delay reproduction. Food odors can reverse the effects of dietary restriction, showing that key mechanisms respond to information, not just resources. Such environmental cues can predict population trends, not just individual prospects for survival and reproduction. When population size is increasing, each offspring produced earlier makes a larger proportional contribution to the gene pool, but the reverse is true when population size is declining. We show mathematically that natural selection can favor facultative delay in reproduction when environmental cues predict a decrease in total population size, even if lifetime fecundity decreases with delay. We also show that increased reproduction from waiting for better conditions does not increase fitness (proportional representation) when the whole population benefits similarly. We conclude that the beneficial effects of stress on longevity (hormesis) in diverse taxa are a side-effect of delaying reproduction in response to environmental cues that population size is likely to decrease. The reversal by food odors of the effects of dietary restriction can be explained as a response to information that population size is less likely to decrease, reducing the chance that delaying reproduction will increase fitness.

Keeping the herds healthy and alert: Implications of predator control for infectious disease

USGS Publications Warehouse

Packer, Craig; Holt, Robert D.; Hudson, Peter J.; Lafferty, Kevin D.; Dobson, Andrew P.

2003-01-01

Predator control programmes are generally implemented in an attempt to increase prey population sizes. However, predator removal could prove harmful to prey populations that are regulated primarily by parasitic infections rather than by predation. We develop models for microparasitic and macroparasitic infection that specify the conditions where predator removal will (a) increase the incidence of parasitic infection, (b) reduce the number of healthy individuals in the prey population and (c) decrease the overall size of the prey population. In general, predator removal is more likely to be harmful when the parasite is highly virulent, macroparasites are highly aggregated in their prey, hosts are long-lived and the predators select infected prey.

Human-induced evolution caused by unnatural selection through harvest of wild animals

PubMed Central

Allendorf, Fred W.; Hard, Jeffrey J.

2009-01-01

Human harvest of phenotypically desirable animals from wild populations imposes selection that can reduce the frequencies of those desirable phenotypes. Hunting and fishing contrast with agricultural and aquacultural practices in which the most desirable animals are typically bred with the specific goal of increasing the frequency of desirable phenotypes. We consider the potential effects of harvest on the genetics and sustainability of wild populations. We also consider how harvesting could affect the mating system and thereby modify sexual selection in a way that might affect recruitment. Determining whether phenotypic changes in harvested populations are due to evolution, rather than phenotypic plasticity or environmental variation, has been problematic. Nevertheless, it is likely that some undesirable changes observed over time in exploited populations (e.g., reduced body size, earlier sexual maturity, reduced antler size, etc.) are due to selection against desirable phenotypes—a process we call “unnatural” selection. Evolution brought about by human harvest might greatly increase the time required for over-harvested populations to recover once harvest is curtailed because harvesting often creates strong selection differentials, whereas curtailing harvest will often result in less intense selection in the opposing direction. We strongly encourage those responsible for managing harvested wild populations to take into account possible selective effects of harvest management and to implement monitoring programs to detect exploitation-induced selection before it seriously impacts viability. PMID:19528656

Body size shifts and early warning signals precede the historic collapse of whale stocks.

PubMed

Clements, Christopher F; Blanchard, Julia L; Nash, Kirsty L; Hindell, Mark A; Ozgul, Arpat

2017-06-22

Predicting population declines is a key challenge in the face of global environmental change. Abundance-based early warning signals have been shown to precede population collapses; however, such signals are sensitive to the low reliability of abundance estimates. Here, using historical data on whales harvested during the 20th century, we demonstrate that early warning signals can be present not only in the abundance data, but also in the more reliable body size data of wild populations. We show that during the period of commercial whaling, the mean body size of caught whales declined dramatically (by up to 4 m over a 70-year period), leading to early warning signals being detectable up to 40 years before the global collapse of whale stocks. Combining abundance and body size data can reduce the length of the time series required to predict collapse, and decrease the chances of false positive early warning signals.

Multi-species benefits of the proposed North American sage-grouse management plan

Treesearch

Clait E. Braun

2005-01-01

The population size and distribution of the two species of sage-grouse (Greater – Centrocercus urophasianus and Gunnison – C. minimus) populations have become greatly reduced throughout western North America because of habitat changes. Threats are ongoing to the remaining sagebrush (Artemisia ...

Population properties affect inbreeding avoidance in moose

PubMed Central

Herfindal, Ivar; Haanes, Hallvard; Røed, Knut H.; Solberg, Erling J.; Markussen, Stine S.; Heim, Morten; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2014-01-01

Mechanisms reducing inbreeding are thought to have evolved owing to fitness costs of breeding with close relatives. In small and isolated populations, or populations with skewed age- or sex distributions, mate choice becomes limited, and inbreeding avoidance mechanisms ineffective. We used a unique individual-based dataset on moose from a small island in Norway to assess whether inbreeding avoidance was related to population structure and size, expecting inbreeding avoidance to be greater in years with larger populations and even adult sex ratios. The probability that a potential mating event was realized was negatively related to the inbreeding coefficient of the potential offspring, with a stronger relationship in years with a higher proportion or number of males in the population. Thus, adult sex ratio and population size affect the degree of inbreeding avoidance. Consequently, conservation managers should aim for sex ratios that facilitate inbreeding avoidance, especially in small and isolated populations. PMID:25540152

Risk of population extinction from fixation of deleterious and reverse mutations.

PubMed

Lande, R

1998-01-01

A model is developed for alternate fixations of mildly deleterious and wild-type alleles arising by forward and reverse mutation in a finite population. For almost all parameter values, this gives an equilibrium load that agrees closely with the general expression derived from diffusion theory. Nearly neutral mutations with selection coefficient a few times larger than 1/(2N(e)) do the most damage by increasing the equilibrium load. The model of alternate fixations facilitates dynamical analysis of the expected load and the mean time to extinction in a population that has been suddenly reduced from a very large size to a small size. Reverse mutation can substantially improve population viability, increasing the mean time to extinction by an order of magnitude or more, but because many mutations are irreversible the effects may not be large. Populations with initially high mean fitness and small effective size, N(e) below a few hundred individuals, may be at serious risk of extinction from fixation of deleterious mutations within 10(3) to 10(4) generations.

Life history and past demography maintain genetic structure, outcrossing rate, contemporary pollen gene flow of an understory herb in a highly fragmented rainforest

PubMed Central

Suárez-Montes, Pilar; Chávez-Pesqueira, Mariana

2016-01-01

Introduction Theory predicts that habitat fragmentation, by reducing population size and increasing isolation among remnant populations, can alter their genetic diversity and structure. A cascade of effects is expected: genetic drift and inbreeding after a population bottleneck, changes in biotic interactions that may affect, as in the case of plants, pollen dynamics, mating system, reproductive success. The detection of the effects of contemporary habitat fragmentation on the genetic structure of populations are conditioned by the magnitude of change, given the few number of generations since the onset of fragmentation, especially for long-lived organisms. However, the present-day genetic structure of populations may bear the signature of past demography events. Here, we examine the effects of rainforest fragmentation on the genetic diversity, population structure, mating system (outcrossing rate), indirect gene flow and contemporary pollen dynamics in the understory herb Aphelandra aurantiaca. Also, we assessed its present-day genetic structure under different past demographic scenarios. Methods Twelve populations of A. aurantiaca were sampled in large (4), medium (3), and small (5) forest fragments in the lowland tropical rainforest at Los Tuxtlas region. Variation at 11 microsatellite loci was assessed in 28–30 reproductive plants per population. In two medium- and two large-size fragments we estimated the density of reproductive plants, and the mating system by analyzing the progeny of different mother plants per population. Results Despite prevailing habitat fragmentation, populations of A. aurantiaca possess high genetic variation (He = 0.61), weak genetic structure (Rst = 0.037), and slight inbreeding in small fragments. Effective population sizes (Ne) were large, but slightly lower in small fragments. Migrants derive mostly from large and medium size fragments. Gene dispersal is highly restricted but long distance gene dispersal events were detected. Aphelandra aurantiaca shows a mixed mating system (tm = 0.81) and the outcrossing rate have not been affected by habitat fragmentation. A strong pollen pool structure was detected due to few effective pollen donors (Nep) and low distance pollen movement, pointing that most plants received pollen from close neighbors. Past demographic fluctuations may have affected the present population genetic structure as Bayesian coalescent analysis revealed the signature of past population expansion, possibly during warmer conditions after the last glacial maximum. Discussion Habitat fragmentation has not increased genetic differentiation or reduced genetic diversity of A. aurantiaca despite dozens of generations since the onset of fragmentation in the region of Los Tuxtlas. Instead, past population expansion is compatible with the lack of observed genetic structure. The predicted negative effects of rainforest fragmentation on genetic diversity and population structure of A. aurantiaca seem to have been buffered owing to its large effective populations and long-distance dispersal events. In particular, its mixed-mating system, mostly of outcrossing, suggests high efficiency of pollinators promoting connectivity and reducing inbreeding. However, some results point that the effects of fragmentation are underway, as two small fragments showed higher membership probabilities to their population of origin, suggesting genetic isolation. Our findings underscore the importance of fragment size to maintain genetic connectivity across the landscape. PMID:28028460

The Socioecology of Territory Size and a "Work-Around" Hypothesis for the Adoption of Farming

PubMed Central

Freeman, Jacob

2016-01-01

This paper combines theory from ecology and anthropology to investigate variation in the territory sizes of subsistence oriented agricultural societies. The results indicate that population and the dependence of individuals within a society on “wild” foods partly determine the territory sizes of agricultural societies. In contrast, the productivity of an agroecosystem is not an important determinant of territory size. A comparison of the population-territory size scaling dynamics of agricultural societies and human foragers indicates that foragers and farmers face the same constraints on their ability to expand their territory and intensify their use of resources within a territory. However, the higher density of food in an agroecosystem allows farmers, on average, to live at much higher population densities than human foragers. These macroecological patterns are consistent with a “work-around hypothesis” for the adoption of farming. This hypothesis is that as residential groups of foragers increase in size, farming can sometimes better reduce the tension between an individual’s autonomy over resources and the need for social groups to function to provide public goods like defense and information. PMID:27391955

sGD: software for estimating spatially explicit indices of genetic diversity.

PubMed

Shirk, A J; Cushman, S A

2011-09-01

Anthropogenic landscape changes have greatly reduced the population size, range and migration rates of many terrestrial species. The small local effective population size of remnant populations favours loss of genetic diversity leading to reduced fitness and adaptive potential, and thus ultimately greater extinction risk. Accurately quantifying genetic diversity is therefore crucial to assessing the viability of small populations. Diversity indices are typically calculated from the multilocus genotypes of all individuals sampled within discretely defined habitat patches or larger regional extents. Importantly, discrete population approaches do not capture the clinal nature of populations genetically isolated by distance or landscape resistance. Here, we introduce spatial Genetic Diversity (sGD), a new spatially explicit tool to estimate genetic diversity based on grouping individuals into potentially overlapping genetic neighbourhoods that match the population structure, whether discrete or clinal. We compared the estimates and patterns of genetic diversity using patch or regional sampling and sGD on both simulated and empirical populations. When the population did not meet the assumptions of an island model, we found that patch and regional sampling generally overestimated local heterozygosity, inbreeding and allelic diversity. Moreover, sGD revealed fine-scale spatial heterogeneity in genetic diversity that was not evident with patch or regional sampling. These advantages should provide a more robust means to evaluate the potential for genetic factors to influence the viability of clinal populations and guide appropriate conservation plans. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

A landscape approach for assessing the ecological feasibility of a black bear population recovery

EPA Science Inventory

There is great interest in recovering populations of large carnivores in locations where they previously were extirpated or severely reduced in size as a result of human activity. Determining the ecological feasibility (i.e., is adequate habitat available?) of a species is diffi...

REGION-WIDE GENETIC STRUCTURE OF THE CENTRAL STONEROLLER (CAMPOSTOMA ANOMALUM) AND THE RELATIONSHIP OF GENETIC DIVERSITY TO ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY

EPA Science Inventory

Anthropogenic stressors that reduce population size, alter migration corridors or modify mutational and selective forces on populations are expected to leave a lasting genetic footprint on the distribution of intraspecific genetic variation. Thus, the pattern of intraspecific gen...

Disease limits populations: plague and black-tailed prairie dogs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cully, Jack F.; Johnson, T.; Collinge, S.K.; Ray, C.

2010-01-01

Plague is an exotic vector-borne disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis that causes mortality rates approaching 100% in black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus). We mapped the perimeter of the active portions of black-tailed prairie dog colonies annually between 1999 and 2005 at four prairie dog colony complexes in areas with a history of plague, as well as at two complexes that were located outside the distribution of plague at the time of mapping and had therefore never been affected by the disease. We hypothesized that the presence of plague would significantly reduce overall black-tailed prairie dog colony area, reduce the sizes of colonies on these landscapes, and increase nearest-neighbor distances between colonies. Within the region historically affected by plague, individual colonies were smaller, nearest-neighbor distances were greater, and the proportion of potential habitat occupied by active prairie dog colonies was smaller than at plague-free sites. Populations that endured plague were composed of fewer large colonies (>100 ha) than populations that were historically plague free. We suggest that these differences among sites in colony size and isolation may slow recolonization after extirpation. At the same time, greater intercolony distances may also reduce intercolony transmission of pathogens. Reduced transmission among smaller and more distant colonies may ultimately enhance long-term prairie dog population persistence in areas where plague is present.

Disease limits populations: plague and black-tailed prairie dogs.

PubMed

Cully, Jack F; Johnson, Tammi L; Collinge, Sharon K; Ray, Chris

2010-01-01

Plague is an exotic vector-borne disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis that causes mortality rates approaching 100% in black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus). We mapped the perimeter of the active portions of black-tailed prairie dog colonies annually between 1999 and 2005 at four prairie dog colony complexes in areas with a history of plague, as well as at two complexes that were located outside the distribution of plague at the time of mapping and had therefore never been affected by the disease. We hypothesized that the presence of plague would significantly reduce overall black-tailed prairie dog colony area, reduce the sizes of colonies on these landscapes, and increase nearest-neighbor distances between colonies. Within the region historically affected by plague, individual colonies were smaller, nearest-neighbor distances were greater, and the proportion of potential habitat occupied by active prairie dog colonies was smaller than at plague-free sites. Populations that endured plague were composed of fewer large colonies (>100 ha) than populations that were historically plague free. We suggest that these differences among sites in colony size and isolation may slow recolonization after extirpation. At the same time, greater intercolony distances may also reduce intercolony transmission of pathogens. Reduced transmission among smaller and more distant colonies may ultimately enhance long-term prairie dog population persistence in areas where plague is present.

Disease Limits Populations: Plague and Black-Tailed Prairie Dogs

PubMed Central

Johnson, Tammi L.; Collinge, Sharon K.; Ray, Chris

2010-01-01

Abstract Plague is an exotic vector-borne disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis that causes mortality rates approaching 100% in black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus). We mapped the perimeter of the active portions of black-tailed prairie dog colonies annually between 1999 and 2005 at four prairie dog colony complexes in areas with a history of plague, as well as at two complexes that were located outside the distribution of plague at the time of mapping and had therefore never been affected by the disease. We hypothesized that the presence of plague would significantly reduce overall black-tailed prairie dog colony area, reduce the sizes of colonies on these landscapes, and increase nearest-neighbor distances between colonies. Within the region historically affected by plague, individual colonies were smaller, nearest-neighbor distances were greater, and the proportion of potential habitat occupied by active prairie dog colonies was smaller than at plague-free sites. Populations that endured plague were composed of fewer large colonies (>100 ha) than populations that were historically plague free. We suggest that these differences among sites in colony size and isolation may slow recolonization after extirpation. At the same time, greater intercolony distances may also reduce intercolony transmission of pathogens. Reduced transmission among smaller and more distant colonies may ultimately enhance long-term prairie dog population persistence in areas where plague is present. PMID:20158327

The study to estimate the floating population in Seoul, Korea.

PubMed

Lee, Geon Woo; Lee, Yong Jin; Kim, Youngeun; Hong, Seung-Han; Kim, Soohwaun; Kim, Jeong Soo; Lee, Jong Tae; Shin, Dong Chun; Lim, Youngwook

2017-01-01

Traffic-related pollutants have been reported to increase the morbidity of respiratory diseases. In order to apply management policies related to motor vehicles, studies of the floating population living in cities are important. The rate of metro rail transit system use by passengers residing in Seoul is about 54% of total public transportation use. Through the rate of metro use, the people-flow ratios in each administrative area were calculated. By applying a people-flow ratio based on the official census count, the floating population in 25 regions was calculated. The reduced level of deaths among the floating population in 14 regions having the roadside monitoring station was calculated as assuming a 20% reduction of mobile emission based on the policy. The hourly floating population size was calculated by applying the hourly population ratio to the regional population size as specified in the official census count. The number of people moving from 5 a.m. to next day 1 a.m. could not be precisely calculated when the population size was applied, but no issue was observed that would trigger a sizable shift in the rate of population change. The three patterns of increase, decrease, and no change of population in work hours were analyzed. When the concentration of particulate matter less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter was reduced by 20%, the number of excess deaths varied according to the difference of the floating population. The effective establishment of directions to manage the pollutants in cities should be carried out by considering the floating population. Although the number of people using the metro system is only an estimate, this disadvantage was supplemented by calculating inflow and outflow ratio of metro users per time in the total floating population in each region. Especially, 54% of metro usage in public transport causes high reliability in application.

Demographic stochasticity in small remnant populations of the declining distylous plant Primula veris

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kery, M.; Matthies, D.; Schmid, B.

2003-01-01

We studied ecological consequences of distyly for the declining perennial plant Primula veris in the Swiss Jura. Distyly favours cross-fertilization and avoids inbreeding, but may lead to pollen limitation and reduced reproduction if morph frequencies deviate from 50 %. Disassortative mating is promoted by the reciprocal position of stigmas and anthers in the two morphs (pin and thrum) and by intramorph incompatibility and should result in equal frequencies of morphs at equilibrium. However, deviations could arise because of demographic stochasticity, the lower intra-morph incompatibility of the pin morph, and niche differentiation between morphs. Demographic stochasticity should result in symmetric deviations from an even morph frequency among populations and in increased deviations with decreasing population size. If crosses between pins occurred, these would only generate pins, and this could result in a pin-bias of morph frequencies in general and in small populations in particular. If the morphs have different niches, morph frequencies should be related to environmental factors, morphs might be spatially segregated, and morphological differences between morphs would be expected. We tested these hypotheses in the declining distylous P. veris. We studied morph frequencies in relation to environmental conditions and population size, spatial segregation in field populations, morphological differences between morphs, and growth responses to nutrient addition. Morph frequencies in 76 populations with 1 - 80000 flowering plants fluctuated symmetrically about 50 %. Deviations from 50 % were much larger in small populations, and sixof the smallest populations had lost one morph altogether. In contrast, morph frequencies were neither related to population size nor to 17 measures of environmental conditions. We found no spatial segregation or morphological differences in the field or in the common garden. The results suggest that demographic stochasticity caused deviations of the morph ratiofrom unity in small populations. Demographic stochasticity was probably caused by the random elimination of plants during the fragmentation of formerly large continuous populations. Biased morph frequencies may be one of the reasons for the strongly reduced reproduction in small populations of P. veris.

A test of the predator satiation hypothesis, acorn predator size, and acorn preference

Treesearch

C.H. Greenberg; S.J. Zarnoch

2018-01-01

Mast seeding is hypothesized to satiate seed predators with heavy production and reduce populations with crop failure, thereby increasing seed survival. Preference for red or white oak acorns could influence recruitment among oak species. We tested the predator satiation hypothesis, acorn preference, and predator size by concurrently...

Effects of population reduction on white-tailed deer home-range dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crimmins, Shawn M.; Edwards, John W.; Campbell, Tyler A; Ford, W. Mark; Keyser, Patrick D.; Miller, Brad F.; Miller, Karl V.

2015-01-01

Management strategies designed to reduce the negative impacts of overabundant Odocoileus virginianus (White-tailed Deer) populations on forest regeneration may be influenced by changes in both population density and timber harvest. However, there is conflicting evidence as to how such changes in per capita resource availability influence home-range patterns. We compared home-range patterns of 33 female White-tailed Deer from a low-density population at a site with abundant browse to patterns of a sample of >100 females prior to a 75% reduction in population density and a doubling in timber harvest area. Home-range and core-area sizes were approximately 3 times larger than were found prior to population decline and timber harvest increase, consistent with predictions related to intraspecific competition. We also observed greater site fidelity than previously exhibited, although this may be an artifact of increased home-range sizes. Our results support previous research suggesting that White-tailed Deer home-range size is inversely related to population density and is driven, in part, by intraspecific competition for resources. Relationships among population density, resource availability, and home-range patterns among female White-tailed Deer appear to be complex and context specific.

Effective population size and genetic structure of a Piute ground squirrel (Spermophilus mollis) population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Antolin, Michael F.; Van Horne, Beatrice; Berger, Michael D.

2001-01-01

Piute ground squirrels (Spermophilus mollis) are distributed continuously in habitat dominated by native shrubs and perennial grasses in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area in Idaho, U.S.A. This habitat is being fragmented and replaced by exotic annual plants, changing it to a wildfire-dominated system that provides poor habitat for ground squirrels. To assess potential effects of this fragmentation on ground squirrel populations, we combined an estimate of effective population size (Ne) based upon a demographic study with a population genetic analysis. The study area included three subpopulations separated from each other by 8–13 km. The ratio of effective population size to census number (Ne/N) was 0.57. Combining Ne/N with dispersal distances from a radio-tracking study, we calculated that neighborhood size was 62.2 ha, which included between 204 and 480 individuals. Our population genetic analysis (based on randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) and microsatellite markers) showed relatively low levels of genetic differentiation (Qpopulations 0.07–0.10) between subpopulations and no inbreeding within subpopulations (f = 0.0003). These estimates of population subdivision translate into an effective migration rate (Nem) of 2.3–3.3 per year, which represents a high level of gene flow. Invasion by exotics will reduce the overall productivity of the habitat, and will lead to isolation among subpopulations if favorable habitat patches become isolated.

Evidence that lake trout served as a buffer against sea lamprey predation on burbot in Lake Erie

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stapanian, M.A.; Madenjian, C.P.

2007-01-01

The population of burbot Lota lota in Lake Erie recovered during 1986–2003, mainly because of the control of sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus, which began in 1986. Burbot populations continued to grow during 1996–1998, when sea lamprey control was substantially reduced. We calculated mortality parameters for burbot in Lake Erie by estimating age at capture for 2,793 burbot caught in annual gill-net surveys of eastern Lake Erie from 1994 to 2003. Based on catch-curve analysis, annual mortality in Lake Erie during 1994–2003 was estimated as 33%. Annual mortality of the 1992 year-class of burbot was estimated as 30%. The mortality of burbot during the years of reduced sea lamprey control was not different from that during the 3 years preceding reduced control and was significantly lower than that during the entire portion of the time series in which full sea lamprey control was conducted. These results suggest that the reduction in sea lamprey control did not lead to increased burbot mortality. The catch per gill-net lift of large burbot (total length > 600 mm), the size preferred by sea lampreys, was lower than that of adult lake trout Salvelinus namaycush (age 5 and older; total length > 700 mm) before lampricide application was reduced. Although adult lake trout populations declined, the abundance of large burbot did not change during the period of reduced lampricide application. These results support a hypothesis that a healthy population of adult lake trout can serve as a buffer species, acting to reduce predation of burbot by sea lampreys when sea lamprey populations increase. Burbot attained sexual maturity at a relatively early age (3 or 4 years) and a total length (approximately 500 mm) that was smaller than the preferred prey size for sea lampreys. These characteristics and the buffering effect of the lake trout population enabled growth of the burbot population during the brief period when lamprey control was reduced.

Metapopulation effective size and conservation genetic goals for the Fennoscandian wolf (Canis lupus) population

PubMed Central

Laikre, L; Olsson, F; Jansson, E; Hössjer, O; Ryman, N

2016-01-01

The Scandinavian wolf population descends from only five individuals, is isolated, highly inbred and exhibits inbreeding depression. To meet international conservation goals, suggestions include managing subdivided wolf populations over Fennoscandia as a metapopulation; a genetically effective population size of Ne⩾500, in line with the widely accepted long-term genetic viability target, might be attainable with gene flow among subpopulations of Scandinavia, Finland and Russian parts of Fennoscandia. Analytical means for modeling Ne of subdivided populations under such non-idealized situations have been missing, but we recently developed new mathematical methods for exploring inbreeding dynamics and effective population size of complex metapopulations. We apply this theory to the Fennoscandian wolves using empirical estimates of demographic parameters. We suggest that the long-term conservation genetic target for metapopulations should imply that inbreeding rates in the total system and in the separate subpopulations should not exceed Δf=0.001. This implies a meta-Ne of NeMeta⩾500 and a realized effective size of each subpopulation of NeRx⩾500. With current local effective population sizes and one migrant per generation, as recommended by management guidelines, the meta-Ne that can be reached is ~250. Unidirectional gene flow from Finland to Scandinavia reduces meta-Ne to ~130. Our results indicate that both local subpopulation effective sizes and migration among subpopulations must increase substantially from current levels to meet the conservation target. Alternatively, immigration from a large (Ne⩾500) population in northwestern Russia could support the Fennoscandian metapopulation, but immigration must be substantial (5–10 effective immigrants per generation) and migration among Fennoscandian subpopulations must nevertheless increase. PMID:27328654

Quantifying and Mitigating the Effect of Preferential Sampling on Phylodynamic Inference

PubMed Central

Karcher, Michael D.; Palacios, Julia A.; Bedford, Trevor; Suchard, Marc A.; Minin, Vladimir N.

2016-01-01

Phylodynamics seeks to estimate effective population size fluctuations from molecular sequences of individuals sampled from a population of interest. One way to accomplish this task formulates an observed sequence data likelihood exploiting a coalescent model for the sampled individuals’ genealogy and then integrating over all possible genealogies via Monte Carlo or, less efficiently, by conditioning on one genealogy estimated from the sequence data. However, when analyzing sequences sampled serially through time, current methods implicitly assume either that sampling times are fixed deterministically by the data collection protocol or that their distribution does not depend on the size of the population. Through simulation, we first show that, when sampling times do probabilistically depend on effective population size, estimation methods may be systematically biased. To correct for this deficiency, we propose a new model that explicitly accounts for preferential sampling by modeling the sampling times as an inhomogeneous Poisson process dependent on effective population size. We demonstrate that in the presence of preferential sampling our new model not only reduces bias, but also improves estimation precision. Finally, we compare the performance of the currently used phylodynamic methods with our proposed model through clinically-relevant, seasonal human influenza examples. PMID:26938243

Effective Size of Nonrandom Mating Populations

PubMed Central

Caballero, A.; Hill, W. G.

1992-01-01

Nonrandom mating whereby parents are related is expected to cause a reduction in effective population size because their gene frequencies are correlated and this will increase the genetic drift. The published equation for the variance effective size, N(e), which includes the possibility of nonrandom mating, does not take into account such a correlation, however. Further, previous equations to predict effective sizes in populations with partial sib mating are shown to be different, but also incorrect. In this paper, a corrected form of these equations is derived and checked by stochastic simulation. For the case of stable census number, N, and equal progeny distributions for each sex, the equation is & where S(k)(2) is the variance of family size and α is the departure from Hardy-Weinberg proportions. For a Poisson distribution of family size (S(k)(2) = 2), it reduces to N(e) = N/(1 + α), as when inbreeding is due to selfing. When nonrandom mating occurs because there is a specified system of partial inbreeding every generation, α can be substituted by Wright's F(IS) statistic, to give the effective size as a function of the proportion of inbred mates. PMID:1582565

Impact of minimum catch size on the population viability of Strombus gigas (Mesogastropoda: Strombidae) in Quintana Roo, Mexico.

PubMed

Peel, Joanne R; Mandujano, María del Carmen

2014-12-01

The queen conch Strombus gigas represents one of the most important fishery resources of the Caribbean but heavy fishing pressure has led to the depletion of stocks throughout the region, causing the inclusion of this species into CITES Appendix II and IUCN's Red-List. In Mexico, the queen conch is managed through a minimum fishing size of 200 mm shell length and a fishing quota which usually represents 50% of the adult biomass. The objectives of this study were to determine the intrinsic population growth rate of the queen conch population of Xel-Ha, Quintana Roo, Mexico, and to assess the effects of a regulated fishing impact, simulating the extraction of 50% adult biomass on the population density. We used three different minimum size criteria to demonstrate the effects of minimum catch size on the population density and discuss biological implications. Demographic data was obtained through capture-mark-recapture sampling, collecting all animals encountered during three hours, by three divers, at four different sampling sites of the Xel-Ha inlet. The conch population was sampled each month between 2005 and 2006, and bimonthly between 2006 and 2011, tagging a total of 8,292 animals. Shell length and lip thickness were determined for each individual. The average shell length for conch with formed lip in Xel-Ha was 209.39 ± 14.18 mm and the median 210 mm. Half of the sampled conch with lip ranged between 200 mm and 219 mm shell length. Assuming that the presence of the lip is an indicator for sexual maturity, it can be concluded that many animals may form their lip at greater shell lengths than 200 mm and ought to be considered immature. Estimation of relative adult abundance and densities varied greatly depending on the criteria employed for adult classification. When using a minimum fishing size of 200 mm shell length, between 26.2% and up to 54.8% of the population qualified as adults, which represented a simulated fishing impact of almost one third of the population. When conch extraction was simulated using a classification criteria based on lip thickness, it had a much smaller impact on the population density. We concluded that the best management strategy for S. gigas is a minimum fishing size based on a lip thickness, since it has lower impact on the population density, and given that selective fishing pressure based on size may lead to the appearance of small adult individuals with reduced fecundity. Furthermore, based on the reproductive biology and the results of the simulated fishing, we suggest a minimum lip thickness of ≥ 15 mm, which ensures the protection of reproductive stages, reduces the risk of overfishing, leading to non-viable density reduction.

Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species

PubMed Central

Nolet, Bart A; Bauer, Silke; Feige, Nicole; Kokorev, Yakov I; Popov, Igor Yu; Ebbinge, Barwolt S

2013-01-01

1. The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions). 2. Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis, covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects. 3. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960–2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming abundance and population density on population development. 4. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carry-over effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone. 5. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting migratory birds and, more recently, possibly population dynamics of resident bird species, but this is the first evidence for effects of lemming abundance on population size of a migratory bird species. Why lemming cycles are faltering in the last two decades is unclear, but this may be associated with changes in winter climate at Taimyr Peninsula (Siberia). PMID:23419215

Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species.

PubMed

Nolet, Bart A; Bauer, Silke; Feige, Nicole; Kokorev, Yakov I; Popov, Igor Yu; Ebbinge, Barwolt S

2013-07-01

The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions). Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis, covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960-2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming abundance and population density on population development. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carry-over effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting migratory birds and, more recently, possibly population dynamics of resident bird species, but this is the first evidence for effects of lemming abundance on population size of a migratory bird species. Why lemming cycles are faltering in the last two decades is unclear, but this may be associated with changes in winter climate at Taimyr Peninsula (Siberia). © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Paraprofessional-delivered home-visiting intervention for American Indian teen mothers and children: 3-year outcomes from a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Barlow, Allison; Mullany, Britta; Neault, Nicole; Goklish, Novalene; Billy, Trudy; Hastings, Ranelda; Lorenzo, Sherilynn; Kee, Crystal; Lake, Kristin; Redmond, Cleve; Carter, Alice; Walkup, John T

2015-02-01

The Affordable Care Act provides funding for home-visiting programs to reduce health care disparities, despite limited evidence that existing programs can overcome implementation and evaluation challenges with at-risk populations. The authors report 36-month outcomes of the paraprofessional-delivered Family Spirit home-visiting intervention for American Indian teen mothers and children. Expectant American Indian teens (N=322, mean age=18.1 years) from four southwestern reservation communities were randomly assigned to the Family Spirit intervention plus optimized standard care or optimized standard care alone. Maternal and child outcomes were evaluated at 28 and 36 weeks gestation and 2, 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, and 36 months postpartum. At baseline the mothers had high rates of substance use (>84%), depressive symptoms (>32%), dropping out of school (>57%), and residential instability (51%). Study retention was ≥83%. From pregnancy to 36 months postpartum, mothers in the intervention group had significantly greater parenting knowledge (effect size=0.42) and parental locus of control (effect size=0.17), fewer depressive symptoms (effect size=0.16) and externalizing problems (effect size=0.14), and lower past month use of marijuana (odds ratio=0.65) and illegal drugs (odds ratio=0.67). Children in the intervention group had fewer externalizing (effect size=0.23), internalizing (effect size=0.23), and dysregulation (effect size=0.27) problems. The paraprofessional home-visiting intervention promoted effective parenting, reduced maternal risks, and improved child developmental outcomes in the U.S. population subgroup with the fewest resources and highest behavioral health disparities. The methods and results can inform federal efforts to disseminate and sustain evidence-based home-visiting interventions in at-risk populations.

Sub-sampling genetic data to estimate black bear population size: A case study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tredick, C.A.; Vaughan, M.R.; Stauffer, D.F.; Simek, S.L.; Eason, T.

2007-01-01

Costs for genetic analysis of hair samples collected for individual identification of bears average approximately US$50 [2004] per sample. This can easily exceed budgetary allowances for large-scale studies or studies of high-density bear populations. We used 2 genetic datasets from 2 areas in the southeastern United States to explore how reducing costs of analysis by sub-sampling affected precision and accuracy of resulting population estimates. We used several sub-sampling scenarios to create subsets of the full datasets and compared summary statistics, population estimates, and precision of estimates generated from these subsets to estimates generated from the complete datasets. Our results suggested that bias and precision of estimates improved as the proportion of total samples used increased, and heterogeneity models (e.g., Mh[CHAO]) were more robust to reduced sample sizes than other models (e.g., behavior models). We recommend that only high-quality samples (>5 hair follicles) be used when budgets are constrained, and efforts should be made to maximize capture and recapture rates in the field.

The influence of simulated exploitation on Patella vulgata populations: protandric sex change is size-dependent.

PubMed

Borges, Carla D G; Hawkins, Stephen J; Crowe, Tasman P; Doncaster, C Patrick

2016-01-01

Grazing mollusks are used as a food resource worldwide, and limpets are harvested commercially for both local consumption and export in several countries. This study describes a field experiment to assess the effects of simulated human exploitation of limpets Patella vulgata on their population ecology in terms of protandry (age-related sex change from male to female), growth, recruitment, migration, and density regulation. Limpet populations at two locations in southwest England were artificially exploited by systematic removal of the largest individuals for 18 months in plots assigned to three treatments at each site: no (control), low, and high exploitation. The shell size at sex change (L 50: the size at which there is a 50:50 sex ratio) decreased in response to the exploitation treatments, as did the mean shell size of sexual stages. Size-dependent sex change was indicated by L 50 occurring at smaller sizes in treatments than controls, suggesting an earlier switch to females. Mean shell size of P. vulgata neuters changed little under different levels of exploitation, while males and females both decreased markedly in size with exploitation. No differences were detected in the relative abundances of sexual stages, indicating some compensation for the removal of the bigger individuals via recruitment and sex change as no migratory patterns were detected between treatments. At the end of the experiment, 0-15 mm recruits were more abundant at one of the locations but no differences were detected between treatments. We conclude that sex change in P. vulgata can be induced at smaller sizes by reductions in density of the largest individuals reducing interage class competition. Knowledge of sex-change adaptation in exploited limpet populations should underpin strategies to counteract population decline and improve rocky shore conservation and resource management.

Reduced recruitment in Hyalella azteca (Saussure, 1858) exposed to copper.

PubMed

Othman, M Shuhaimi; Pascoe, David

2002-09-01

Neonates of the amphipod Hyalella azteca were exposed for a 35-day period in the laboratory to a range of copper concentrations, nominally 18 microg/l, 40 microg/l, 70 microg/l and 260 microg/l. The reproductive status of the population was assessed by recording recruitment, the number of precopulatory pairs and number of gravid females. At the end of the experiment, the body lengths of individuals were measured using image analysis. There was a significant decrease in the final population size of H. azteca with increasing copper concentration and compared with the control. Copper significantly reduced recruitment of juveniles and length composition of the final population and there was also a trend toward reduced precopula number with increasing copper concentrations.

Continuous Adaptive Population Reduction (CAPR) for Differential Evolution Optimization.

PubMed

Wong, Ieong; Liu, Wenjia; Ho, Chih-Ming; Ding, Xianting

2017-06-01

Differential evolution (DE) has been applied extensively in drug combination optimization studies in the past decade. It allows for identification of desired drug combinations with minimal experimental effort. This article proposes an adaptive population-sizing method for the DE algorithm. Our new method presents improvements in terms of efficiency and convergence over the original DE algorithm and constant stepwise population reduction-based DE algorithm, which would lead to a reduced number of cells and animals required to identify an optimal drug combination. The method continuously adjusts the reduction of the population size in accordance with the stage of the optimization process. Our adaptive scheme limits the population reduction to occur only at the exploitation stage. We believe that continuously adjusting for a more effective population size during the evolutionary process is the major reason for the significant improvement in the convergence speed of the DE algorithm. The performance of the method is evaluated through a set of unimodal and multimodal benchmark functions. In combining with self-adaptive schemes for mutation and crossover constants, this adaptive population reduction method can help shed light on the future direction of a completely parameter tune-free self-adaptive DE algorithm.

Individualized head-related transfer functions based on population grouping.

PubMed

Xu, Song; Li, Zhizhong; Salvendy, Gavriel

2008-11-01

A method is proposed to divide a population into different groups for partial individualization of head-related transfer functions (HRTFs). Borrowing the basic idea in sizing system design, factor analysis is used to identify the most representative measurements which are then in a case study used to group the population. The comparison between the group mean HRTFs and the population mean HRTFs shows that the group mean HRTFs could greatly reduce spectral distortion at most sampled positions.

Habitat corridors facilitate genetic resilience irrespective of species dispersal abilities or population sizes.

PubMed

Christie, Mark R; Knowles, L Lacey

2015-06-01

Corridors are frequently proposed to connect patches of habitat that have become isolated due to human-mediated alterations to the landscape. While it is understood that corridors can facilitate dispersal between patches, it remains unknown whether corridors can mitigate the negative genetic effects for entire communities modified by habitat fragmentation. These negative genetic effects, which include reduced genetic diversity, limit the potential for populations to respond to selective agents such as disease epidemics and global climate change. We provide clear evidence from a forward-time, agent-based model (ABM) that corridors can facilitate genetic resilience in fragmented habitats across a broad range of species dispersal abilities and population sizes. Our results demonstrate that even modest increases in corridor width decreased the genetic differentiation between patches and increased the genetic diversity and effective population size within patches. Furthermore, we document a trade-off between corridor quality and corridor design whereby populations connected by high-quality habitat (i.e., low corridor mortality) are more resilient to suboptimal corridor design (e.g., long and narrow corridors). The ABM also revealed that species interactions can play a greater role than corridor design in shaping the genetic responses of populations to corridors. These results demonstrate how corridors can provide long-term conservation benefits that extend beyond targeted taxa and scale up to entire communities irrespective of species dispersal abilities or population sizes.

Habitat corridors facilitate genetic resilience irrespective of species dispersal abilities or population sizes

PubMed Central

Christie, Mark R; Knowles, L Lacey

2015-01-01

Corridors are frequently proposed to connect patches of habitat that have become isolated due to human-mediated alterations to the landscape. While it is understood that corridors can facilitate dispersal between patches, it remains unknown whether corridors can mitigate the negative genetic effects for entire communities modified by habitat fragmentation. These negative genetic effects, which include reduced genetic diversity, limit the potential for populations to respond to selective agents such as disease epidemics and global climate change. We provide clear evidence from a forward-time, agent-based model (ABM) that corridors can facilitate genetic resilience in fragmented habitats across a broad range of species dispersal abilities and population sizes. Our results demonstrate that even modest increases in corridor width decreased the genetic differentiation between patches and increased the genetic diversity and effective population size within patches. Furthermore, we document a trade-off between corridor quality and corridor design whereby populations connected by high-quality habitat (i.e., low corridor mortality) are more resilient to suboptimal corridor design (e.g., long and narrow corridors). The ABM also revealed that species interactions can play a greater role than corridor design in shaping the genetic responses of populations to corridors. These results demonstrate how corridors can provide long-term conservation benefits that extend beyond targeted taxa and scale up to entire communities irrespective of species dispersal abilities or population sizes. PMID:26029259

Do social groups prevent Allee effect related extinctions?: The case of wild dogs.

PubMed

Angulo, Elena; Rasmussen, Greg S A; Macdonald, David W; Courchamp, Franck

2013-03-15

Allee effects may arise as the number of individuals decreases, thereby reducing opportunities for cooperation and constraining individual fitness, which can lead to population decrease and extinction. Obligate cooperative breeders rely on a minimum group size to subsist and are thus expected to be particularly susceptible to Allee effects. Although Allee effects in some components of the fitness of cooperative breeders have been detected, empirical confirmation of population extinction due to Allee effects is lacking yet. Because previous studies of cooperation have focused on Allee effects affecting individual fitness (component Allee effect) and population dynamics (demographic Allee effect), we argue that a new conceptual level of Allee effect, the group Allee effect, is needed to understand the special case of cooperative breeders. We hypothesize that whilst individuals are vulnerable to Allee effects, the group could act as a buffer against population extinction if: (i) individual fitness and group fate depend on group size but not on population size and (ii) group size is independent of population size (that is, at any population size, populations comprise both large and small groups). We found that both conditions apply for the African wild dog, Lycaon pictus, and data on this species in Zimbabwe support our hypothesis. The importance of groups in obligate cooperative breeders needs to be accounted for within the Allee effect framework, through a group Allee effect, because the group mediates the relationship between individual fitness and population performance. Whilst sociality is associated with a high probability of Allee effects, we suggest that cooperative individuals organized in relatively autonomous groups within populations might be behaving in ways that diminish extinction risks caused by Allee effects. This study opens new avenues to a better understanding of the role of the evolution of group-living on the probability of extinction faced by social species.

Optimal control of Atlantic population Canada geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hauser, C.E.; Runge, M.C.; Cooch, E.G.; Johnson, F.A.; Harvey, W.F.

2007-01-01

Management of Canada geese (Branta canadensis) can be a balance between providing sustained harvest opportunity while not allowing populations to become overabundant and cause damage. In this paper, we focus on the Atlantic population of Canada geese and use stochastic dynamic programming to determine the optimal harvest strategy over a range of plausible models for population dynamics. There is evidence to suggest that the population exhibits significant age structure, and it is possible to reconstruct age structure from surveys. Consequently the harvest strategy is a function of the age composition, as well as the abundance, of the population. The objective is to maximize harvest while maintaining the number of breeding adults in the population between specified upper and lower limits. In addition, the total harvest capacity is limited and there is uncertainty about the strength of density-dependence. We find that under a density-independent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at the highest acceptable abundance. However if harvest capacity is limited, then the optimal long-term breeding population size is lower than the highest acceptable level, to reduce the risk of the population growing to an unacceptably large size. Under the proposed density-dependent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at an intermediate level between the bounds on acceptable population size; limits to harvest capacity have little effect on the optimal long-term population size. It is clear that the strength of density-dependence and constraints on harvest significantly affect the optimal harvest strategy for this population. Model discrimination might be achieved in the long term, while continuing to meet management goals, by adopting an adaptive management strategy.

Floral display size, conspecific density and florivory affect fruit set in natural populations of Phlox hirsuta, an endangered species

PubMed Central

Ruane, Lauren G.; Rotzin, Andrew T.; Congleton, Philip H.

2014-01-01

Background and Aims Natural variation in fruit and seed set may be explained by factors that affect the composition of pollen grains on stigmas. Self-incompatible species require compatible outcross pollen grains to produce seeds. The siring success of outcross pollen grains, however, can be hindered if self (or other incompatible) pollen grains co-occur on stigmas. This study identifies factors that determine fruit set in Phlox hirsuta, a self-sterile endangered species that is prone to self-pollination, and its associated fitness costs. Methods Multiple linear regressions were used to identify factors that explain variation in percentage fruit set within three of the five known populations of this endangered species. Florivorous beetle density, petal colour, floral display size, local conspecific density and pre-dispersal seed predation were quantified and their effects on the ability of flowers to produce fruits were assessed. Key Results In all three populations, percentage fruit set decreased as florivorous beetle density increased and as floral display size increased. The effect of floral display size on fruit set, however, often depended on the density of nearby conspecific plants. High local conspecific densities offset – even reversed – the negative effects of floral display size on percentage fruit set. Seed predation by mammals decreased fruit set in one population. Conclusions The results indicate that seed production in P. hirsuta can be maximized by selectively augmenting populations in areas containing isolated large plants, by reducing the population sizes of florivorous beetles and by excluding mammals that consume unripe fruits. PMID:24557879

Efficacy of Four Nematicides Against the Reproduction and Development of Pinewood Nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus

PubMed Central

Bi, Zhenzhen; Gong, Yanting; Huang, Xiaojuan; Yu, Hongshi; Bai, Liqun; Hu, Jiafu

2015-01-01

To understand the efficacy of emamectin benzoate, avermectin, milbemectin, and thiacloprid on the reproduction and development of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, seven parameters, namely population growth, fecundity, egg hatchability, larval lethality, percent larval development, body size, and sexual ratio, were investigated using sublethal (LC20) doses of these compounds in the laboratory. Emamectin benzoate treatment led to a significant suppression in population size, brood size, and percent larval development with 411, 3.50, and 49.63%, respectively, compared to 20850, 24.33, and 61.43% for the negative control. The embryonic and larval lethality increased obviously from 12.47% and 13.70% to 51.37% and 75.30%, respectively. In addition, the body length was also significantly reduced for both males and females in the emamectin benzoate treatment. Avermectin and milbemectin were also effective in suppressing population growth by increasing larval lethality and reducing larval development, although they did not affect either brood size or embryonic lethality. Body length for both male and female worms was increased by avermectin. Thiacloprid caused no adverse reproductive effects, although it suppressed larval development. Sexual ratio was not affected by any of these four nematicides. Our results indicate that emamectin benzoate, milbemectin, and avermectin are effective against the reproduction of B. xylophilus. We think these three nematicides can be useful for the control of pine wilt disease. PMID:26170474

Efficacy of Four Nematicides Against the Reproduction and Development of Pinewood Nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus.

PubMed

Bi, Zhenzhen; Gong, Yanting; Huang, Xiaojuan; Yu, Hongshi; Bai, Liqun; Hu, Jiafu

2015-06-01

To understand the efficacy of emamectin benzoate, avermectin, milbemectin, and thiacloprid on the reproduction and development of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, seven parameters, namely population growth, fecundity, egg hatchability, larval lethality, percent larval development, body size, and sexual ratio, were investigated using sublethal (LC20) doses of these compounds in the laboratory. Emamectin benzoate treatment led to a significant suppression in population size, brood size, and percent larval development with 411, 3.50, and 49.63%, respectively, compared to 20850, 24.33, and 61.43% for the negative control. The embryonic and larval lethality increased obviously from 12.47% and 13.70% to 51.37% and 75.30%, respectively. In addition, the body length was also significantly reduced for both males and females in the emamectin benzoate treatment. Avermectin and milbemectin were also effective in suppressing population growth by increasing larval lethality and reducing larval development, although they did not affect either brood size or embryonic lethality. Body length for both male and female worms was increased by avermectin. Thiacloprid caused no adverse reproductive effects, although it suppressed larval development. Sexual ratio was not affected by any of these four nematicides. Our results indicate that emamectin benzoate, milbemectin, and avermectin are effective against the reproduction of B. xylophilus. We think these three nematicides can be useful for the control of pine wilt disease.

Interspecific hybridization contributes to high genetic diversity and apparent effective population size in an endemic population of mottled ducks (Anas fulvigula maculosa)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peters, Jeffrey L.; Sonsthagen, Sarah A.; Lavretsky, Philip; Rezsutek, Michael; Johnson, William P.; McCracken, Kevin G.

2014-01-01

Under drift-mutation equilibrium, genetic diversity is expected to be correlated with effective population size (Ne). Changes in population size and gene flow are two important processes that can cause populations to deviate from this expected relationship. In this study, we used DNA sequences from six independent loci to examine the influence of these processes on standing genetic diversity in endemic mottled ducks (Anas fulvigula) and geographically widespread mallards (A. platyrhynchos), two species known to hybridize. Mottled ducks have an estimated census size that is about two orders-of-magnitude smaller than that of mallards, yet these two species have similar levels of genetic diversity, especially at nuclear DNA. Coalescent analyses suggest that a population expansion in the mallard at least partly explains this discrepancy, but the mottled duck harbors higher genetic diversity and apparent N e than expected for its census size even after accounting for a population decline. Incorporating gene flow into the model, however, reduced the estimated Ne of mottled ducks to 33 % of the equilibrium Ne and yielded an estimated Ne consistent with census size. We also examined the utility of these loci to distinguish among mallards, mottled ducks, and their hybrids. Most putatively pure individuals were correctly assigned to species, but the power for detecting hybrids was low. Although hybridization with mallards potentially poses a conservation threat to mottled ducks by creating a risk of extinction by hybridization, introgression of mallard alleles has helped maintain high genetic diversity in mottled ducks and might be important for the adaptability and survival of this species.

Sample Size Calculations for Population Size Estimation Studies Using Multiplier Methods With Respondent-Driven Sampling Surveys.

PubMed

Fearon, Elizabeth; Chabata, Sungai T; Thompson, Jennifer A; Cowan, Frances M; Hargreaves, James R

2017-09-14

While guidance exists for obtaining population size estimates using multiplier methods with respondent-driven sampling surveys, we lack specific guidance for making sample size decisions. To guide the design of multiplier method population size estimation studies using respondent-driven sampling surveys to reduce the random error around the estimate obtained. The population size estimate is obtained by dividing the number of individuals receiving a service or the number of unique objects distributed (M) by the proportion of individuals in a representative survey who report receipt of the service or object (P). We have developed an approach to sample size calculation, interpreting methods to estimate the variance around estimates obtained using multiplier methods in conjunction with research into design effects and respondent-driven sampling. We describe an application to estimate the number of female sex workers in Harare, Zimbabwe. There is high variance in estimates. Random error around the size estimate reflects uncertainty from M and P, particularly when the estimate of P in the respondent-driven sampling survey is low. As expected, sample size requirements are higher when the design effect of the survey is assumed to be greater. We suggest a method for investigating the effects of sample size on the precision of a population size estimate obtained using multipler methods and respondent-driven sampling. Uncertainty in the size estimate is high, particularly when P is small, so balancing against other potential sources of bias, we advise researchers to consider longer service attendance reference periods and to distribute more unique objects, which is likely to result in a higher estimate of P in the respondent-driven sampling survey. ©Elizabeth Fearon, Sungai T Chabata, Jennifer A Thompson, Frances M Cowan, James R Hargreaves. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (http://publichealth.jmir.org), 14.09.2017.

Interacting Populations: Hosts and Pathogens, Prey and Predators

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-01

model. The importance of seasonality has been well documented for other diseases. For childhood diseases like measles and chicken pox , seasonality comes...Spaniards and in soime cases reduced indigenous population to one tenth of its preepidemic size the Indian p)op)ulation of Mexico is thought to have been... Mexico (1993-94), striped dolphins (Stenella coeuleoalba) in the Mediterranean Sea (1990- 92) and commoin dolphins (Delphinus delphis) in the Black Sea

Population properties affect inbreeding avoidance in moose.

PubMed

Herfindal, Ivar; Haanes, Hallvard; Røed, Knut H; Solberg, Erling J; Markussen, Stine S; Heim, Morten; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2014-12-01

Mechanisms reducing inbreeding are thought to have evolved owing to fitness costs of breeding with close relatives. In small and isolated populations, or populations with skewed age- or sex distributions, mate choice becomes limited, and inbreeding avoidance mechanisms ineffective. We used a unique individual-based dataset on moose from a small island in Norway to assess whether inbreeding avoidance was related to population structure and size, expecting inbreeding avoidance to be greater in years with larger populations and even adult sex ratios. The probability that a potential mating event was realized was negatively related to the inbreeding coefficient of the potential offspring, with a stronger relationship in years with a higher proportion or number of males in the population. Thus, adult sex ratio and population size affect the degree of inbreeding avoidance. Consequently, conservation managers should aim for sex ratios that facilitate inbreeding avoidance, especially in small and isolated populations. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Consumptive and nonconsumptive effects of cannibalism in fluctuating age-structured populations.

PubMed

Wissinger, Scott A; Whiteman, Howard H; Denoël, Mathieu; Mumford, Miranda L; Aubee, Catherine B

2010-02-01

Theory and empirical studies suggest that cannibalism in age-structured populations can regulate recruitment depending on the intensity of intraspecific competition between cannibals and victims and the nature of the cannibalism window, i.e., which size classes interact as cannibals and victims. Here we report on a series of experiments that quantify that window for age-structured populations of salamander larvae and paedomorphic adults. We determined body size limits on cannibalism in microcosms and then the consumptive and nonconsumptive (injuries, foraging and activity, diet, growth) effects on victims in mesocosms with seminatural levels of habitat complexity and alternative prey. We found that cannibalism by the largest size classes (paedomorphs and > or = age 3+ yr larvae) occurs mainly on young-of-the-year (YOY) victims. Surviving YOY and other small larvae had increased injuries, reduced activity levels, and reduced growth rates in the presence of cannibals. Data on YOY survival in an experiment in which we manipulated the density of paedomorphs combined with historical data on the number of cannibals in natural populations indicate that dominant cohorts of paedomorphs can cause observed recruitment failures. Dietary data indicate that ontogenetic shifts in diet should preclude strong intraspecific competition between YOY and cannibals in this species. Thus our results are consistent with previous empirical and theoretical work that suggests that recruitment regulation by cannibalism is most likely when YOY are vulnerable to cannibalism but have low dietary overlap with cannibals. Understanding the role of cannibalism in regulating recruitment in salamander populations is timely, given the widespread occurrences of amphibian decline. Previous studies have focused on extrinsic (including anthropogenic) factors that affect amphibian population dynamics, whereas the data presented here combined with long-term field observations suggest the potential for intrinsically driven population cycles.

What does testosterone do for red deer males?

PubMed Central

Malo, A.F.; Roldan, E.R.S.; Garde, J.J.; Soler, A.J.; Vicente, J.; Gortazar, C.; Gomendio, M.

2008-01-01

Testosterone has been proposed to have a dual effect, enhancing sexual traits while depressing parasite resistance in males. Here, we test this hypothesis in red deer, examining males from captive populations during the whole annual cycle and males from natural populations during the breeding season. We first explored the effects of body size, age and sampling date on testosterone to avoid confounding effects. Our results show that in captive populations seasonal changes in testosterone levels were mirrored by changes in testes size, and that during the rut there was a strong correlation between both. In natural populations, males with higher testosterone levels had larger testes, improved sperm quality, smaller burr diameter, stronger antlers, higher haematocrit levels, and increased nematode parasite load. By contrast, no significant relationship was found between testosterone and spleen size or tick parasite load. We conclude that testosterone (i) improves males' reproductive investment and physical stamina, (ii) improves antler strength but reduces burr diameter, and (iii) imposes a cost in terms of depressed parasite resistance. PMID:19129132

Aggressiveness overcomes body-size effects in fights staged between invasive and native fish species with overlapping niches.

PubMed

Sanches, Fábio Henrique Carretero; Miyai, Caio Akira; Costa, Tânia Márcia; Christofoletti, Ronaldo Adriano; Volpato, Gilson Luiz; Barreto, Rodrigo Egydio

2012-01-01

Approximately 50 years ago, Nile tilapia were accidentally introduced to Brazil, and the decline of pearl cichlid populations, which has been intensified by habitat degradation, in some locations has been associated with the presence of Nile tilapia. There is, however, little strong empirical evidence for the negative interaction of non-native fish populations with native fish populations; such evidence would indicate a potential behavioural mechanism that could cause the population of the native fish to decline. In this study, we show that in fights staged between pairs of Nile tilapia and pearl cichlids of differing body size, the Nile tilapia were more aggressive than the pearl cichlid. Because this effect prevailed over body-size effects, the pearl cichlids were at a disadvantage. The niche overlap between the Nile tilapia and the pearl cichlid in nature, and the competitive advantage shown by the Nile tilapia in this study potentially represent one of several possible results of the negative interactions imposed by an invasive species. These negative effects may reduce population viability of the native species and cause competitive exclusion.

Walleye population and fishery responses after elimination of legal harvest on Escanaba Lake, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haglund, Justin M.; Isermann, Daniel A.; Sass, Greg G.

2016-01-01

Implementing harvest regulations to eliminate or substantially reduce (≥90%) the exploitation of Walleyes Sander vitreus in recreational fisheries may increase population size structure, but these measures also could reduce angler effort because many Walleye anglers are harvest oriented. We analyzed data collected during 1995–2015 to determine whether Walleye population and fishery metrics in Escanaba Lake, Wisconsin, changed after a minimum TL limit of 71 cm with a one-fish daily bag limit was implemented in 2003. This change eliminated the legal harvest of Walleyes after several decades during which annual exploitation averaged 34%. We detected a significant increase in the loge density of adult females after the regulation change, but the loge density of all adults and adult males did not differ between periods. Mean TL of adult males was significantly greater after the regulation change, but the mean TL of females and the proportional size distribution of preferred-length fish (≥51 cm TL) were similar between periods. Sex-specific mean TLs at age 5 did not differ between periods. Loge density of age-0 Walleyes did not change after 2003, but variation in age-0 density was lower. Total angler effort and the effort for anglers targeting Walleyes were significantly lower (35% and 60% declines, respectively) after the regulation change, whereas catch rates for both angler categories did not differ between periods. Our results suggest that implementing highly restrictive regulations that greatly reduce or eliminate legal harvest will not always increase angler catch rates and population size structure. Highly restrictive regulations may also deter anglers from using a fishery when many other fisheries are available. Our findings are useful for fishery managers who may work with anglers holding the belief that lower exploitation is a potential remedy for low Walleye size structure, even when density and growth suggest that there is limited potential for improvement.

Reducing the extinction risk of stochastic populations via nondemographic noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Be'er, Shay; Assaf, Michael

2018-02-01

We consider nondemographic noise in the form of uncertainty in the reaction step size and reveal a dramatic effect this noise may have on the stability of self-regulating populations. Employing the reaction scheme m A →k A but allowing, e.g., the product number k to be a priori unknown and sampled from a given distribution, we show that such nondemographic noise can greatly reduce the population's extinction risk compared to the fixed k case. Our analysis is tested against numerical simulations, and by using empirical data of different species, we argue that certain distributions may be more evolutionary beneficial than others.

Diagnostic test accuracy and prevalence inferences based on joint and sequential testing with finite population sampling.

PubMed

Su, Chun-Lung; Gardner, Ian A; Johnson, Wesley O

2004-07-30

The two-test two-population model, originally formulated by Hui and Walter, for estimation of test accuracy and prevalence estimation assumes conditionally independent tests, constant accuracy across populations and binomial sampling. The binomial assumption is incorrect if all individuals in a population e.g. child-care centre, village in Africa, or a cattle herd are sampled or if the sample size is large relative to population size. In this paper, we develop statistical methods for evaluating diagnostic test accuracy and prevalence estimation based on finite sample data in the absence of a gold standard. Moreover, two tests are often applied simultaneously for the purpose of obtaining a 'joint' testing strategy that has either higher overall sensitivity or specificity than either of the two tests considered singly. Sequential versions of such strategies are often applied in order to reduce the cost of testing. We thus discuss joint (simultaneous and sequential) testing strategies and inference for them. Using the developed methods, we analyse two real and one simulated data sets, and we compare 'hypergeometric' and 'binomial-based' inferences. Our findings indicate that the posterior standard deviations for prevalence (but not sensitivity and specificity) based on finite population sampling tend to be smaller than their counterparts for infinite population sampling. Finally, we make recommendations about how small the sample size should be relative to the population size to warrant use of the binomial model for prevalence estimation. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

High variance in reproductive success generates a false signature of a genetic bottleneck in populations of constant size: a simulation study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Demographic bottlenecks can severely reduce the genetic variation of a population or a species. Establishing whether low genetic variation is caused by a bottleneck or a constantly low effective number of individuals is important to understand a species’ ecology and evolution, and it has implications for conservation management. Recent studies have evaluated the power of several statistical methods developed to identify bottlenecks. However, the false positive rate, i.e. the rate with which a bottleneck signal is misidentified in demographically stable populations, has received little attention. We analyse this type of error (type I) in forward computer simulations of stable populations having greater than Poisson variance in reproductive success (i.e., variance in family sizes). The assumption of Poisson variance underlies bottleneck tests, yet it is commonly violated in species with high fecundity. Results With large variance in reproductive success (Vk ≥ 40, corresponding to a ratio between effective and census size smaller than 0.1), tests based on allele frequencies, allelic sizes, and DNA sequence polymorphisms (heterozygosity excess, M-ratio, and Tajima’s D test) tend to show erroneous signals of a bottleneck. Similarly, strong evidence of population decline is erroneously detected when ancestral and current population sizes are estimated with the model based method MSVAR. Conclusions Our results suggest caution when interpreting the results of bottleneck tests in species showing high variance in reproductive success. Particularly in species with high fecundity, computer simulations are recommended to confirm the occurrence of a population bottleneck. PMID:24131797

Population-regulating processes during the adult phase in flatfish

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rijnsdorp, A. D.

Flatfish support major fisheries and the study of regulatory processes are of paramount importance for evaluating the resilience of the resource to exploitation. This paper reviews the evidence for processes operating during the adult phase that may 1. generate interannual variability in recruitment; 2. contribute to population regulation through density-dependent growth, density-dependent ripening of adults and density-dependent egg production. With regard to (1), there is evidence that in the adult phase processes do occur that may generate recruitment variability through variation in size-specific fecundity, contraction of spawning season, reduction in egg quality, change in sex ratio and size composition of the adult population. However, time series of recruitment do not provide support for this hypothesis. With regard to (2), there is ample evidence that exploitation of flatfish coincides with an increase in growth, although the mechanisms involved are not always clear. The presence of density-dependent growth in the adult phase of unexploited populations appears to be the most likely explanation in some cases. From the early years of exploitation of flatfish stocks inhabiting cold waters, evidence exists that adult fish do not spawn each year. Fecundity schedules show annual variations, but the available information suggests that size-specific fecundity is stable over a broad range of population abundance and may only decrease at high population abundance. The analysis is complicated by the possibility of a trade-off between egg numbers and egg size. Nevertheless, a density-dependent decrease in growth will automatically result in a decrease in absolute fecundity because of the reduced body size. The potential contribution of these regulatory effects on population regulation is explored. Results indicate that density-dependent ripening and absolute fecundity, mediated through density-dependent growth, may control recruitment at high levels of population abundance. The effect of a density-dependent decrease in size-specific fecundity seems to play a minor role, although this role may become important at extremely high levels of population abundance.

Habitat fragmentation causes bottlenecks and inbreeding in the European tree frog (Hyla arborea).

PubMed Central

Andersen, Liselotte W.; Fog, Kåre; Damgaard, Christian

2004-01-01

A genetic study of the European tree frog, Hyla arborea, in Denmark was undertaken to examine the population structure on mainland Jutland and the island of Lolland after a period of reduction in suitable habitat and population sizes. The two regions have experienced the same rate of habitat loss but fragmentation has been more severe on Lolland. Genetic variation based on 12 polymorphic DNA microsatellites was analysed in 494 tree frogs sampled from two ponds in Jutland and 10 ponds on Lolland. A significant overall deviation from Hardy-Weinberg expectations could be attributed to three ponds, all on Lolland. This was most probably caused by an inbreeding effect reducing fitness, which was supported by the observed significant negative correlation between larva survival and mean F(IS) value and mean individual inbreeding coefficient. A significant reduction in genetic variation (bottleneck) was detected in most of the ponds on Lolland. Population-structure analysis suggested the existence of at least 11 genetically different populations, corresponding to most of the sampled population units. The results indicated that the populations were unique genetic units and could be used to illustrate the migration pattern between newly established ponds arisen either by natural colonization of tree frogs or by artificial introduction. A high degree of pond fidelity in the tree frogs was suggested. A severe fragmentation process reducing population size and fitness within some of the populations probably caused the significant reduction in genetic variation of tree frog populations on Lolland. PMID:15306354

A multi-scale assessment of animal aggregation patterns to understand increasing pathogen seroprevalence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brennan, Angela K.; Cross, Paul C.; Higgs, Megan D.; Edwards, W. Henry; Scurlock, Brandon M.; Creel, Scott

2014-01-01

Understanding how animal density is related to pathogen transmission is important to develop effective disease control strategies, but requires measuring density at a scale relevant to transmission. However, this is not straightforward or well-studied among large mammals with group sizes that range several orders of magnitude or aggregation patterns that vary across space and time. To address this issue, we examined spatial variation in elk (Cervus canadensis) aggregation patterns and brucellosis across 10 regions in the Greater Yellowstone Area where previous studies suggest the disease may be increasing. We hypothesized that rates of increasing brucellosis would be better related to the frequency of large groups than mean group size or population density, but we examined whether other measures of density would also explain rising seroprevalence. To do this, we measured wintering elk density and group size across multiple spatial and temporal scales from monthly aerial surveys. We used Bayesian hierarchical models and 20 years of serologic data to estimate rates of increase in brucellosis within the 10 regions, and to examine the linear relationships between these estimated rates of increase and multiple measures of aggregation. Brucellosis seroprevalence increased over time in eight regions (one region showed an estimated increase from 0.015 in 1991 to 0.26 in 2011), and these rates of increase were positively related to all measures of aggregation. The relationships were weaker when the analysis was restricted to areas where brucellosis was present for at least two years, potentially because aggregation was related to disease-establishment within a population. Our findings suggest that (1) group size did not explain brucellosis increases any better than population density and (2) some elk populations may have high densities with small groups or lower densities with large groups, but brucellosis is likely to increase in either scenario. In this case, any one control method such as reducing population density or group size may not be sufficient to reduce transmission. This study highlights the importance of examining the density-transmission relationship at multiple scales and across populations before broadly applying disease control strategies.

Post-Chelyabinsk Risk Assessment for Near Earth Objects (NEOs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boslough, M.; Harris, A. W.

2014-12-01

The widely-accepted NEO risk assessments published in the 1990s concluded that the largest asteroids (> 1 km) dominated the hazard. Even though large NEOs represent only a tiny fraction of the population because of a power-law size distribution, the potential for global catastrophe means that the contribution from these low-probability, high-consequence events is large. This conclusion led to the Spaceguard survey, which has now catalogued about 90% of these objects, none of which is on a collision course. The survey has reduced the assessed risk from this size range by more than an order of magnitude because completion is highest for the largest and most dangerous. The relative risk from objects tens of meters in diameter is therefore increasing.The absolute assessed risk from airbursts caused by objects of this size is also higher for two reasons. First, they may be more frequent than previously thought because of an underestimated population. Second, they are significantly more damaging than assumed in the original assessment because (in most cases) they more efficiently couple energy to the surface than nuclear explosions. Last year's half-megaton airburst over Chelyabinsk, Russia, appears to challenge the notion that such events are extremely rare—especially when also considering the 1908 Tunguska event along with decades of infrasound bolide data showing higher-than-expected numbers of large airbursts.We will present a new analysis of the risk based on updated estimates for the population of undiscovered NEOs, taking into account the enhanced damage potential of collisional airbursts. Merging the survey population estimates with the bolide frequency estimates suggests a population of tens-of-meters sized bodies that may be a factor of three or so greater than estimated from surveys alone. Uncertainty in the population of airburst-class NEOs remains quite large, and can only be unambiguously reduced by expanded surveys focused on objects in the tens-of-meters size range. Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Mating Success, Longevity, and Fertility of Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte (Chrysomelidae: Coleoptera) in Relation to Body Size and Cry3Bb1-Resistant and Cry3Bb1-Susceptible Genotypes

PubMed Central

French, Bryan Wade; Hammack, Leslie; Tallamy, Douglas W.

2015-01-01

Insect resistance to population control methodologies is a widespread problem. The development of effective resistance management programs is often dependent on detailed knowledge regarding the biology of individual species and changes in that biology associated with resistance evolution. This study examined the reproductive behavior and biology of western corn rootworm beetles of known body size from lines resistant and susceptible to the Cry3Bb1 protein toxin expressed in transgenic Bacillus thuringiensis maize. In crosses between, and within, the resistant and susceptible genotypes, no differences occurred in mating frequency, copulation duration, courtship duration, or fertility; however, females mated with resistant males showed reduced longevity. Body size did not vary with genotype. Larger males and females were not more likely to mate than smaller males and females, but larger females laid more eggs. Moderately strong, positive correlation occurred between the body sizes of successfully mated males and females; however, weak correlation also existed for pairs that did not mate. Our study provided only limited evidence for fitness costs associated with the Cry3Bb1-resistant genotype that might reduce the persistence in populations of the resistant genotype but provided additional evidence for size-based, assortative mating, which could favor the persistence of resistant genotypes affecting body size. PMID:26569315

Phenotypic selection in natural populations: what limits directional selection?

PubMed

Kingsolver, Joel G; Diamond, Sarah E

2011-03-01

Studies of phenotypic selection document directional selection in many natural populations. What factors reduce total directional selection and the cumulative evolutionary responses to selection? We combine two data sets for phenotypic selection, representing more than 4,600 distinct estimates of selection from 143 studies, to evaluate the potential roles of fitness trade-offs, indirect (correlated) selection, temporally varying selection, and stabilizing selection for reducing net directional selection and cumulative responses to selection. We detected little evidence that trade-offs among different fitness components reduced total directional selection in most study systems. Comparisons of selection gradients and selection differentials suggest that correlated selection frequently reduced total selection on size but not on other types of traits. The direction of selection on a trait often changes over time in many temporally replicated studies, but these fluctuations have limited impact in reducing cumulative directional selection in most study systems. Analyses of quadratic selection gradients indicated stabilizing selection on body size in at least some studies but provided little evidence that stabilizing selection is more common than disruptive selection for most traits or study systems. Our analyses provide little evidence that fitness trade-offs, correlated selection, or stabilizing selection strongly constrains the directional selection reported for most quantitative traits.

A POPULATION MEMETICS APPROACH TO CULTURAL EVOLUTION IN CHAFFINCH SONG: DIFFERENTIATION AMONG POPULATIONS.

PubMed

Lynch, Alejandro; Baker, Allan J

1994-04-01

We investigated cultural evolution in populations of common chaffinches (Fringilla coelebs) in the Atlantic islands (Azores, Madeira, and Canaries) and neighboring continental regions (Morocco and Iberia) by employing a population-memetic approach. To quantify differentiation, we used the concept of a song meme, defined as a single syllable or a series of linked syllables capable of being transmitted. The levels of cultural differentiation are higher among the Canaries populations than among the Azorean ones, even though the islands are on average closer to each other geographically. This is likely the result of reduced levels of migration, lower population sizes, and bottlenecks (possibly during the colonization of these populations) in the Canaries; all these factors produce a smaller effective population size and therefore accentuate the effects of differentiation by random drift. Significant levels of among-population differentiation in the Azores, in spite of substantial levels of migration, attest to the differentiating effects of high mutation rates of memes, which allow the accumulation of new mutants in different populations before migration can disperse them throughout the entire region. © 1994 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Sample size and power calculations for detecting changes in malaria transmission using antibody seroconversion rate.

PubMed

Sepúlveda, Nuno; Paulino, Carlos Daniel; Drakeley, Chris

2015-12-30

Several studies have highlighted the use of serological data in detecting a reduction in malaria transmission intensity. These studies have typically used serology as an adjunct measure and no formal examination of sample size calculations for this approach has been conducted. A sample size calculator is proposed for cross-sectional surveys using data simulation from a reverse catalytic model assuming a reduction in seroconversion rate (SCR) at a given change point before sampling. This calculator is based on logistic approximations for the underlying power curves to detect a reduction in SCR in relation to the hypothesis of a stable SCR for the same data. Sample sizes are illustrated for a hypothetical cross-sectional survey from an African population assuming a known or unknown change point. Overall, data simulation demonstrates that power is strongly affected by assuming a known or unknown change point. Small sample sizes are sufficient to detect strong reductions in SCR, but invariantly lead to poor precision of estimates for current SCR. In this situation, sample size is better determined by controlling the precision of SCR estimates. Conversely larger sample sizes are required for detecting more subtle reductions in malaria transmission but those invariantly increase precision whilst reducing putative estimation bias. The proposed sample size calculator, although based on data simulation, shows promise of being easily applicable to a range of populations and survey types. Since the change point is a major source of uncertainty, obtaining or assuming prior information about this parameter might reduce both the sample size and the chance of generating biased SCR estimates.

Is the Cortical Deficit in Amblyopia Due to Reduced Cortical Magnification, Loss of Neural Resolution, or Neural Disorganization?

PubMed

Clavagnier, Simon; Dumoulin, Serge O; Hess, Robert F

2015-11-04

The neural basis of amblyopia is a matter of debate. The following possibilities have been suggested: loss of foveal cells, reduced cortical magnification, loss of spatial resolution of foveal cells, and topographical disarray in the cellular map. To resolve this we undertook a population receptive field (pRF) functional magnetic resonance imaging analysis in the central field in humans with moderate-to-severe amblyopia. We measured the relationship between averaged pRF size and retinal eccentricity in retinotopic visual areas. Results showed that cortical magnification is normal in the foveal field of strabismic amblyopes. However, the pRF sizes are enlarged for the amblyopic eye. We speculate that the pRF enlargement reflects loss of cellular resolution or an increased cellular positional disarray within the representation of the amblyopic eye. The neural basis of amblyopia, a visual deficit affecting 3% of the human population, remains a matter of debate. We undertook the first population receptive field functional magnetic resonance imaging analysis in participants with amblyopia and compared the projections from the amblyopic and fellow normal eye in the visual cortex. The projection from the amblyopic eye was found to have a normal cortical magnification factor, enlarged population receptive field sizes, and topographic disorganization in all early visual areas. This is consistent with an explanation of amblyopia as an immature system with a normal complement of cells whose spatial resolution is reduced and whose topographical map is disordered. This bears upon a number of competing theories for the psychophysical defect and affects future treatment therapies. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/3514740-16$15.00/0.

Z chromosome divergence, polymorphism and relative effective population size in a genus of lekking birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Cornman, Robert S.; Kenneth L. Jones,; Fike, Jennifer

2015-01-01

Sex chromosomes contribute disproportionately to species boundaries as they diverge faster than autosomes and often have reduced diversity. Their hemizygous nature contributes to faster divergence and reduced diversity, as do some types of selection. In birds, other factors (mating system and bottlenecks) can further decrease the effective population size of Z-linked loci and accelerate divergence (Fast-Z). We assessed Z-linked divergence and effective population sizes for two polygynous sage-grouse species and compared them to estimates from birds with various mating systems. We found lower diversity and higher FST for Z-linked loci than for autosomes, as expected. The πZ/πA ratio was 0.38 in Centrocercus minimus, 0.48 in Centrocercus urophasianus and 0.59 in a diverged, parapatric population of C. urophasianus, a broad range given the mating system among these groups is presumably equivalent. The full data set had unequal males and females across groups, so we compared an equally balanced reduced set of C. minimus and individuals pooled from both C. urophasianus subgroups recovering similar estimates: 0.54 for C. urophasianus and 0.38 for C. minimus. We provide further evidence that NeZ/NeA in birds is often lower than expected under random mating or monogamy. The lower ratio in C. minimus could be a consequence of stronger selection or drift acting on Z loci during speciation, as this species differs strongly from C. urophasianus in sexually selected characters with minimal mitochondrial divergence. As C. minimus also exhibited lower genomic diversity, it is possible that a more severe demographic history may contribute to its lower ratio.

Z chromosome divergence, polymorphism and relative effective population size in a genus of lekking birds.

PubMed

Oyler-McCance, S J; Cornman, R S; Jones, K L; Fike, J A

2015-11-01

Sex chromosomes contribute disproportionately to species boundaries as they diverge faster than autosomes and often have reduced diversity. Their hemizygous nature contributes to faster divergence and reduced diversity, as do some types of selection. In birds, other factors (mating system and bottlenecks) can further decrease the effective population size of Z-linked loci and accelerate divergence (Fast-Z). We assessed Z-linked divergence and effective population sizes for two polygynous sage-grouse species and compared them to estimates from birds with various mating systems. We found lower diversity and higher FST for Z-linked loci than for autosomes, as expected. The π(Z)/π(A) ratio was 0.38 in Centrocercus minimus, 0.48 in Centrocercus urophasianus and 0.59 in a diverged, parapatric population of C. urophasianus, a broad range given the mating system among these groups is presumably equivalent. The full data set had unequal males and females across groups, so we compared an equally balanced reduced set of C. minimus and individuals pooled from both C. urophasianus subgroups recovering similar estimates: 0.54 for C. urophasianus and 0.38 for C. minimus. We provide further evidence that N(eZ)/N(eA) in birds is often lower than expected under random mating or monogamy. The lower ratio in C. minimus could be a consequence of stronger selection or drift acting on Z loci during speciation, as this species differs strongly from C. urophasianus in sexually selected characters with minimal mitochondrial divergence. As C. minimus also exhibited lower genomic diversity, it is possible that a more severe demographic history may contribute to its lower ratio.

A possible explanation for the population size discrepancy in tuna (genus Thunnus) estimated from mitochondrial DNA and microsatellite data.

PubMed

Qiu, Fan; Kitchen, Andrew; Beerli, Peter; Miyamoto, Michael M

2013-02-01

A recent study using both mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and microsatellite data reported on a population size discrepancy in the eastern tiger salamander where the effective population size (N(e)) estimate of the former exceeded that of the latter. That study suggested, among other hypotheses, that homoplasy of microsatellite alleles is responsible for the discrepancy. In this investigation, we report 10 new cases of a similar discrepancy in five species of tuna. These cases derive from our Bayesian inferences using data from Pacific Bluefin Tuna (Thunnus orientalis) and Yellowfin Tuna (Thunnus albacares), as well as from published estimates of genetic diversity for additional populations of Yellowfin Tuna and three other tuna species. Phylogenetic character analyses of inferred genealogies of Pacific Bluefin and Yellowfin Tuna reveal similar reduced levels of mtDNA and microsatellite homoplasy. Thus, the discrepancy between inferred population sizes from mtDNA and microsatellite data in tuna is most likely not an artifact of the chosen mutation models used in the microsatellite analyses, but may reflect behavioral differences between the sexes such as female-biased philopatry and male-biased dispersal. This explanation now warrants critical testing with more local populations of tuna and with other animal and plant groups that have different life histories. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adaptive harvest management for the Svalbard population of pink‐footed geese: 2016 progress summary: Technical Report from DCE – Danish Centre for Environment and Energy, No. 86

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.; Madsen, Jesper

2016-01-01

This document describes progress to date on the development of an adaptive harvest management strategy for maintaining the Svalbard population of pink‐footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) near their agreed target level (60,000) by providing for sustainable harvests in Norway and Denmark. This report provides an assessment of the most recent monitoring information (1991-2015) and its implications for the harvest management strategy. By combining varying hypotheses about survival and reproduction, a suite of nine models have been developed that represent a wide range of possibilities concerning the extent to which demographic rates are density dependent or independent. These results suggest that the pink‐footed goose population may have recently experienced a release from density‐dependent mechanisms, corresponding to the period of most rapid growth in population size. Beginning with the 2016 hunting season, harvest quotas will be prescribed on an annual basis rather than every three years because of the potential to better meet population management objectives. Based on updated model weights, the recent observations of population size (74,800), the proportion of the population comprised of one-year-old birds (0.138), and temperature days in Svalbard (20), the optimal harvest quota for the 2016 hunting season is 25,000. The large increase in quota compared to that during first three years of AHM reflects stakeholders’ desire to reduce population size to the goal of 60,000, recognizing that population size remains relatively high and above-average production is expected in 2016 due to a warm spring.

Reproductive Biology and Its Impact on Body Size: Comparative Analysis of Mammalian, Avian and Dinosaurian Reproduction

PubMed Central

Werner, Jan; Griebeler, Eva Maria

2011-01-01

Janis and Carrano (1992) suggested that large dinosaurs might have faced a lower risk of extinction under ecological changes than similar-sized mammals because large dinosaurs had a higher potential reproductive output than similar-sized mammals (JC hypothesis). First, we tested the assumption underlying the JC hypothesis. We therefore analysed the potential reproductive output (reflected in clutch/litter size and annual offspring number) of extant terrestrial mammals and birds (as “dinosaur analogs”) and of extinct dinosaurs. With the exception of rodents, the differences in the reproductive output of similar-sized birds and mammals proposed by Janis and Carrano (1992) existed even at the level of single orders. Fossil dinosaur clutches were larger than litters of similar-sized mammals, and dinosaur clutch sizes were comparable to those of similar-sized birds. Because the extinction risk of extant species often correlates with a low reproductive output, the latter difference suggests a lower risk of population extinction in dinosaurs than in mammals. Second, we present a very simple, mathematical model that demonstrates the advantage of a high reproductive output underlying the JC hypothesis. It predicts that a species with a high reproductive output that usually faces very high juvenile mortalities will benefit more strongly in terms of population size from reduced juvenile mortalities (e.g., resulting from a stochastic reduction in population size) than a species with a low reproductive output that usually comprises low juvenile mortalities. Based on our results, we suggest that reproductive strategy could have contributed to the evolution of the exceptional gigantism seen in dinosaurs that does not exist in extant terrestrial mammals. Large dinosaurs, e.g., the sauropods, may have easily sustained populations of very large-bodied species over evolutionary time. PMID:22194835

Reproductive biology and its impact on body size: comparative analysis of mammalian, avian and dinosaurian reproduction.

PubMed

Werner, Jan; Griebeler, Eva Maria

2011-01-01

Janis and Carrano (1992) suggested that large dinosaurs might have faced a lower risk of extinction under ecological changes than similar-sized mammals because large dinosaurs had a higher potential reproductive output than similar-sized mammals (JC hypothesis). First, we tested the assumption underlying the JC hypothesis. We therefore analysed the potential reproductive output (reflected in clutch/litter size and annual offspring number) of extant terrestrial mammals and birds (as "dinosaur analogs") and of extinct dinosaurs. With the exception of rodents, the differences in the reproductive output of similar-sized birds and mammals proposed by Janis and Carrano (1992) existed even at the level of single orders. Fossil dinosaur clutches were larger than litters of similar-sized mammals, and dinosaur clutch sizes were comparable to those of similar-sized birds. Because the extinction risk of extant species often correlates with a low reproductive output, the latter difference suggests a lower risk of population extinction in dinosaurs than in mammals. Second, we present a very simple, mathematical model that demonstrates the advantage of a high reproductive output underlying the JC hypothesis. It predicts that a species with a high reproductive output that usually faces very high juvenile mortalities will benefit more strongly in terms of population size from reduced juvenile mortalities (e.g., resulting from a stochastic reduction in population size) than a species with a low reproductive output that usually comprises low juvenile mortalities. Based on our results, we suggest that reproductive strategy could have contributed to the evolution of the exceptional gigantism seen in dinosaurs that does not exist in extant terrestrial mammals. Large dinosaurs, e.g., the sauropods, may have easily sustained populations of very large-bodied species over evolutionary time.

Using known populations of pronghorn to evaluate sampling plans and estimators

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kraft, K.M.; Johnson, D.H.; Samuelson, J.M.; Allen, S.H.

1995-01-01

Although sampling plans and estimators of abundance have good theoretical properties, their performance in real situations is rarely assessed because true population sizes are unknown. We evaluated widely used sampling plans and estimators of population size on 3 known clustered distributions of pronghorn (Antilocapra americana). Our criteria were accuracy of the estimate, coverage of 95% confidence intervals, and cost. Sampling plans were combinations of sampling intensities (16, 33, and 50%), sample selection (simple random sampling without replacement, systematic sampling, and probability proportional to size sampling with replacement), and stratification. We paired sampling plans with suitable estimators (simple, ratio, and probability proportional to size). We used area of the sampling unit as the auxiliary variable for the ratio and probability proportional to size estimators. All estimators were nearly unbiased, but precision was generally low (overall mean coefficient of variation [CV] = 29). Coverage of 95% confidence intervals was only 89% because of the highly skewed distribution of the pronghorn counts and small sample sizes, especially with stratification. Stratification combined with accurate estimates of optimal stratum sample sizes increased precision, reducing the mean CV from 33 without stratification to 25 with stratification; costs increased 23%. Precise results (mean CV = 13) but poor confidence interval coverage (83%) were obtained with simple and ratio estimators when the allocation scheme included all sampling units in the stratum containing most pronghorn. Although areas of the sampling units varied, ratio estimators and probability proportional to size sampling did not increase precision, possibly because of the clumped distribution of pronghorn. Managers should be cautious in using sampling plans and estimators to estimate abundance of aggregated populations.

Genetic variability and effective population size when local extinction and recolonization of subpopulations are frequent

PubMed Central

Maruyama, Takeo; Kimura, Motoo

1980-01-01

If a population (species) consists of n haploid lines (subpopulations) which reproduce asexually and each of which is subject to random extinction and subsequent replacement, it is shown that, at equilibrium in which mutational production of new alleles and their random extinction balance each other, the genetic diversity (1 minus the sum of squares of allelic frequencies) is given by 2Nev/(1 + 2Nev), where [Formula: see text] in which Ñ is the harmonic mean of the population size per line, n is the number of lines (assumed to be large), λ is the rate of line extinction, and v is the mutation rate (assuming the infinite neutral allele model). In a diploid population (species) consisting of n colonies, if migration takes place between colonies at the rate m (the island model) in addition to extinction and recolonization of colonies, it is shown that effective population size is [Formula: see text] If the rate of colony extinction (λ) is much larger than the migration rate of individuals, the effective population size is greatly reduced compared with the case in which no colony extinctions occur (in which case Ne = nÑ). The stepping-stone type of recolonization scheme is also considered. Bearing of these results on the interpretation of the level of genetic variability at the enzyme level observed in natural populations is discussed from the standpoint of the neutral mutation-random drift hypothesis. PMID:16592920

Pollen limitation and Allee effect related to population size and sex ratio in the endangered Ottelia acuminata (Hydrocharitaceae): implications for conservation and reintroduction.

PubMed

Xia, J; Lu, J; Wang, Z X; Hao, B B; Wang, H B; Liu, G H

2013-03-01

Small populations may suffer more severe pollen limitation and result in Allee effects. Sex ratio may also affect pollination and reproduction success in dioecious species, which is always overlooked when performing conservation and reintroduction tasks. In this study, we investigated whether and how population size and sex ratio affected pollen limitation and reproduction in the endangered Ottelia acuminata, a dioecious submerged species. We established experimental plots with increasing population size and male sex ratio. We observed insect visitation, estimated pollen limitation by hand-pollinations and counted fruit set and seed production per fruit. Fruit set and seed production decreased significantly in small populations due to pollinator scarcity and thus suffered more severe pollen limitation. Although frequently visited, female-biased larger populations also suffered severe pollen limitation due to few effective visits and insufficient pollen availability. Rising male ratio enhanced pollination service and hence reproduction. Unexpectedly, pollinator preferences did not cause reduced reproduction in male-biased populations because of high pollen availability. However, reproductive outputs showed more variability in severe male-biased populations. Our results revealed two component Allee effects in fruit set and seed production, mediated by pollen limitation in O. acuminata. Moreover, reproduction decreased significantly in larger female-biased populations, increasing the risk of an Allee effect. © 2012 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Widespread rapid reductions in body size of adult salamanders in response to climate change.

PubMed

Caruso, Nicholas M; Sears, Michael W; Adams, Dean C; Lips, Karen R

2014-06-01

Reduction in body size is a major response to climate change, yet evidence in globally imperiled amphibians is lacking. Shifts in average population body size could indicate either plasticity in the growth response to changing climates through changes in allocation and energetics, or through selection for decreased size where energy is limiting. We compared historic and contemporary size measurements in 15 Plethodon species from 102 populations (9450 individuals) and found that six species exhibited significant reductions in body size over 55 years. Biophysical models, accounting for actual changes in moisture and air temperature over that period, showed a 7.1-7.9% increase in metabolic expenditure at three latitudes but showed no change in annual duration of activity. Reduced size was greatest at southern latitudes in regions experiencing the greatest drying and warming. Our results are consistent with a plastic response of body size to climate change through reductions in body size as mediated through increased metabolism. These rapid reductions in body size over the past few decades have significance for the susceptibility of amphibians to environmental change, and relevance for whether adaptation can keep pace with climate change in the future. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Efficient mitigation strategies for epidemics in rural regions.

PubMed

Scoglio, Caterina; Schumm, Walter; Schumm, Phillip; Easton, Todd; Roy Chowdhury, Sohini; Sydney, Ali; Youssef, Mina

2010-07-13

Containing an epidemic at its origin is the most desirable mitigation. Epidemics have often originated in rural areas, with rural communities among the first affected. Disease dynamics in rural regions have received limited attention, and results of general studies cannot be directly applied since population densities and human mobility factors are very different in rural regions from those in cities. We create a network model of a rural community in Kansas, USA, by collecting data on the contact patterns and computing rates of contact among a sampled population. We model the impact of different mitigation strategies detecting closely connected groups of people and frequently visited locations. Within those groups and locations, we compare the effectiveness of random and targeted vaccinations using a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered compartmental model on the contact network. Our simulations show that the targeted vaccinations of only 10% of the sampled population reduced the size of the epidemic by 34.5%. Additionally, if 10% of the population visiting one of the most popular locations is randomly vaccinated, the epidemic size is reduced by 19%. Our results suggest a new implementation of a highly effective strategy for targeted vaccinations through the use of popular locations in rural communities.

Simulated effect of pig-population density on epidemic size and choice of control strategy for classical swine fever epidemics in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Mangen, M-J J; Nielen, M; Burrell, A M

2002-12-18

We examined the importance of pig-population density in the area of an outbreak of classical swine fever (CSF) for the spread of the infection and the choice of control measures. A spatial, stochastic, dynamic epidemiological simulation model linked to a sector-level market-and-trade model for The Netherlands were used. Outbreaks in sparsely and densely populated areas were compared under four different control strategies and with two alternative trade assumptions. The obligatory control strategy required by current EU legislation was predicted to be enough to eradicate an epidemic starting in an area with sparse pig population. By contrast, additional control measures would be necessary if the outbreak began in an area with high pig density. The economic consequences of using preventive slaughter rather than emergency vaccination as an additional control measure depended strongly on the reactions of trading partners. Reducing the number of animal movements significantly reduced the size and length of epidemics in areas with high pig density. The phenomenon of carrier piglets was included in the model with realistic probabilities of infection by this route, but it made a negligible contribution to the spread of the infection.

Defectors Can Create Conditions That Rescue Cooperation

PubMed Central

Waite, Adam James; Cannistra, Caroline; Shou, Wenying

2015-01-01

Cooperation based on the production of costly common goods is observed throughout nature. This is puzzling, as cooperation is vulnerable to exploitation by defectors which enjoy a fitness advantage by consuming the common good without contributing fairly. Depletion of the common good can lead to population collapse and the destruction of cooperation. However, population collapse implies small population size, which, in a structured population, is known to favor cooperation. This happens because small population size increases variability in cooperator frequency across different locations. Since individuals in cooperator-dominated locations (which are most likely cooperators) will grow more than those in defector-dominated locations (which are most likely defectors), cooperators can outgrow defectors globally despite defectors outgrowing cooperators in each location. This raises the possibility that defectors can lead to conditions that sometimes rescue cooperation from defector-induced destruction. We demonstrate multiple mechanisms through which this can occur, using an individual-based approach to model stochastic birth, death, migration, and mutation events. First, during defector-induced population collapse, defectors occasionally go extinct before cooperators by chance, which allows cooperators to grow. Second, empty locations, either preexisting or created by defector-induced population extinction, can favor cooperation because they allow cooperator but not defector migrants to grow. These factors lead to the counterintuitive result that the initial presence of defectors sometimes allows better survival of cooperation compared to when defectors are initially absent. Finally, we find that resource limitation, inducible by defectors, can select for mutations adaptive to resource limitation. When these mutations are initially present at low levels or continuously generated at a moderate rate, they can favor cooperation by further reducing local population size. We predict that in a structured population, small population sizes precipitated by defectors provide a “built-in” mechanism for the persistence of cooperation. PMID:26690946

Population size and trend of Yellow-billed Loons in northern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Earnst, Susan L.; Stehn, R.A.; Platte, Robert; Larned, W.W.; Mallek, E.J.

2005-01-01

The Yellow-billed Loon (Gavia adamsii) is of conservation concern due to its restricted range, small population size, specific habitat requirements, and perceived threats to its breeding and wintering habitat. Within the U.S., this species breeds almost entirely within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, nearly all of which is open, or proposed to be opened, for oil development. Rigorous estimates of Yellow-billed Loon population size and trend are lacking but essential for informed conservation. We used two annual aerial waterfowl surveys, conducted 1986a??2003 and 1992a??2003, to estimate population size and trend on northern Alaskan breeding grounds. In estimating population trend, we used mixed-effects regression models to reduce bias and sampling error associated with improvement in observer skill and annual effects of spring phenology. The estimated population trend on Alaskan breeding grounds since 1986 was near 0 with an estimated annual change of a??0.9% (95% CI of a??3.6% to +1.8%). The estimated population size, averaged over the past 12 years and adjusted by a correction factor based on an intensive, lake-circling, aerial survey method, was 2221 individuals (95% CI of 1206a??3235) in early June and 3369 individuals (95% CI of 1910a??4828) in late June. Based on estimates from other studies of the proportion of loons nesting in a given year, it is likely that <1000 nesting pairs inhabit northern Alaska in most years. The highest concentration of Yellow-billed Loons occurred between the Meade and Ikpikpuk Rivers; and across all of northern Alaska, 53% of recorded sightings occurred within 12% of the area.

Population genomics of the endangered giant Galápagos tortoise

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The giant Galápagos tortoise, Chelonoidis nigra, is a large-sized terrestrial chelonian of high patrimonial interest. The species recently colonized a small continental archipelago, the Galápagos Islands, where it has been facing novel environmental conditions and limited resource availability. To explore the genomic consequences of this ecological shift, we analyze the transcriptomic variability of five individuals of C. nigra, and compare it to similar data obtained from several continental species of turtles. Results Having clarified the timing of divergence in the Chelonoidis genus, we report in C. nigra a very low level of genetic polymorphism, signatures of a weakened efficacy of purifying selection, and an elevated mutation load in coding and regulatory sequences. These results are consistent with the hypothesis of an extremely low long-term effective population size in this insular species. Functional evolutionary analyses reveal a reduced diversity of immunity genes in C. nigra, in line with the hypothesis of attenuated pathogen diversity in islands, and an increased selective pressure on genes involved in response to stress, potentially related to the climatic instability of its environment and its elongated lifespan. Finally, we detect no population structure or homozygosity excess in our five-individual sample. Conclusions These results enlighten the molecular evolution of an endangered taxon in a stressful environment and point to island endemic species as a promising model for the study of the deleterious effects on genome evolution of a reduced long-term population size. PMID:24342523

Population genomics of the endangered giant Galápagos tortoise.

PubMed

Loire, Etienne; Chiari, Ylenia; Bernard, Aurélien; Cahais, Vincent; Romiguier, Jonathan; Nabholz, Benoît; Lourenço, Joao Miguel; Galtier, Nicolas

2013-12-16

The giant Galápagos tortoise, Chelonoidis nigra, is a large-sized terrestrial chelonian of high patrimonial interest. The species recently colonized a small continental archipelago, the Galápagos Islands, where it has been facing novel environmental conditions and limited resource availability. To explore the genomic consequences of this ecological shift, we analyze the transcriptomic variability of five individuals of C. nigra, and compare it to similar data obtained from several continental species of turtles. Having clarified the timing of divergence in the Chelonoidis genus, we report in C. nigra a very low level of genetic polymorphism, signatures of a weakened efficacy of purifying selection, and an elevated mutation load in coding and regulatory sequences. These results are consistent with the hypothesis of an extremely low long-term effective population size in this insular species. Functional evolutionary analyses reveal a reduced diversity of immunity genes in C. nigra, in line with the hypothesis of attenuated pathogen diversity in islands, and an increased selective pressure on genes involved in response to stress, potentially related to the climatic instability of its environment and its elongated lifespan. Finally, we detect no population structure or homozygosity excess in our five-individual sample. These results enlighten the molecular evolution of an endangered taxon in a stressful environment and point to island endemic species as a promising model for the study of the deleterious effects on genome evolution of a reduced long-term population size.

Interacting epidemics and coinfection on contact networks.

PubMed

Newman, M E J; Ferrario, Carrie R

2013-01-01

The spread of certain diseases can be promoted, in some cases substantially, by prior infection with another disease. One example is that of HIV, whose immunosuppressant effects significantly increase the chances of infection with other pathogens. Such coinfection processes, when combined with nontrivial structure in the contact networks over which diseases spread, can lead to complex patterns of epidemiological behavior. Here we consider a mathematical model of two diseases spreading through a single population, where infection with one disease is dependent on prior infection with the other. We solve exactly for the sizes of the outbreaks of both diseases in the limit of large population size, along with the complete phase diagram of the system. Among other things, we use our model to demonstrate how diseases can be controlled not only by reducing the rate of their spread, but also by reducing the spread of other infections upon which they depend.

Stochastic Evolution Dynamic of the Rock-Scissors-Paper Game Based on a Quasi Birth and Death Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Qian; Fang, Debin; Zhang, Xiaoling; Jin, Chen; Ren, Qiyu

2016-06-01

Stochasticity plays an important role in the evolutionary dynamic of cyclic dominance within a finite population. To investigate the stochastic evolution process of the behaviour of bounded rational individuals, we model the Rock-Scissors-Paper (RSP) game as a finite, state dependent Quasi Birth and Death (QBD) process. We assume that bounded rational players can adjust their strategies by imitating the successful strategy according to the payoffs of the last round of the game, and then analyse the limiting distribution of the QBD process for the game stochastic evolutionary dynamic. The numerical experiments results are exhibited as pseudo colour ternary heat maps. Comparisons of these diagrams shows that the convergence property of long run equilibrium of the RSP game in populations depends on population size and the parameter of the payoff matrix and noise factor. The long run equilibrium is asymptotically stable, neutrally stable and unstable respectively according to the normalised parameters in the payoff matrix. Moreover, the results show that the distribution probability becomes more concentrated with a larger population size. This indicates that increasing the population size also increases the convergence speed of the stochastic evolution process while simultaneously reducing the influence of the noise factor.

Stochastic Evolution Dynamic of the Rock-Scissors-Paper Game Based on a Quasi Birth and Death Process.

PubMed

Yu, Qian; Fang, Debin; Zhang, Xiaoling; Jin, Chen; Ren, Qiyu

2016-06-27

Stochasticity plays an important role in the evolutionary dynamic of cyclic dominance within a finite population. To investigate the stochastic evolution process of the behaviour of bounded rational individuals, we model the Rock-Scissors-Paper (RSP) game as a finite, state dependent Quasi Birth and Death (QBD) process. We assume that bounded rational players can adjust their strategies by imitating the successful strategy according to the payoffs of the last round of the game, and then analyse the limiting distribution of the QBD process for the game stochastic evolutionary dynamic. The numerical experiments results are exhibited as pseudo colour ternary heat maps. Comparisons of these diagrams shows that the convergence property of long run equilibrium of the RSP game in populations depends on population size and the parameter of the payoff matrix and noise factor. The long run equilibrium is asymptotically stable, neutrally stable and unstable respectively according to the normalised parameters in the payoff matrix. Moreover, the results show that the distribution probability becomes more concentrated with a larger population size. This indicates that increasing the population size also increases the convergence speed of the stochastic evolution process while simultaneously reducing the influence of the noise factor.

Genetic diversity of Morato's Digger Toad, Proceratophrys moratoi: spatial structure, gene flow, effective size and the need for differential management strategies of populations.

PubMed

Arruda, Mauricio P; Costa, William P; Recco-Pimentel, Shirlei M

2017-01-01

The Morato's Digger Toad, Proceratophrys moratoi, is a critically endangered toad species with a marked population decline in southern Brazilian Cerrado. Despite this, new populations are being discovered, primarily in the northern part of the distribution range, which raises a number of questions with regard to the conservation status of the species. The present study analyzed the genetic diversity of the species based on microsatellite markers. Our findings permitted the identification of two distinct management units. We found profound genetic structuring between the southern populations, on the left margin of the Tietê River, and all other populations. A marked reduction was observed in the contemporary gene flow among the central populations that are most affected by anthropogenic impacts, such as extensive sugar cane plantations, which presumably decreases habitat connectivity. The results indicated reduced diversity in the southern populations which, combined with a smaller effective population size, may make these populations more susceptible to extinction. We recommend the reclassification of P. moratoi as vulnerable and the establishment of a special protection program for the southern populations. Our results provide important insights about the local extinction of southern populations of this toad.

Observations on the seasonal incidence of myxomatosis and its interactions with helminth parasites in the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus).

PubMed

Boag, B

1988-07-01

European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) were collected monthly over a 10-yr period and the incidence of myxomatosis and the size of helminth populations were recorded. Myxomatosis occurred annually, always as an epidemic in the latter half of the year and was associated with both an increase in the percentage of animals infected and the size of the infections of the nematodes Trichostrongylus retortaeformis and Passalurus ambiguus and the cestode Mosgovoyia pectinata. It is suggested that myxomatosis had the effect of reducing the rabbits' overall immune response to infection and that due to the regular annual occurrence of myxomatosis, the resulting increase in the size of helminth infections must be considered an integral part of the population dynamics of these parasites.

Adding exercise to rosuvastatin treatment: influence on C-reactive protein, monocyte toll-like receptor 4 expression, and inflammatory monocyte (CD14+CD16+) population.

PubMed

Coen, Paul M; Flynn, Michael G; Markofski, Melissa M; Pence, Brandt D; Hannemann, Robert E

2010-12-01

Statin treatment and exercise training can reduce markers of inflammation when administered separately. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of rosuvastatin treatment and the addition of exercise training on circulating markers of inflammation including C-reactive protein (CRP), monocyte toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) expression, and CD14+CD16+ monocyte population size. Thirty-three hypercholesterolemic and physically inactive subjects were randomly assigned to rosuvastatin (R) or rosuvastatin/exercise (RE) groups. A third group of physically active hypercholesterolemic subjects served as a control (AC). The R and RE groups received rosuvastatin treatment (10 mg/d) for 20 weeks. From week 10 to week 20, the RE group also participated in an exercise training program (3d/wk). Measurements were made at baseline (Pre), week 10 (Mid), and week 20 (Post), and included TLR4 expression on CD14+ monocytes and CD14+CD16+ monocyte population size as determined by 3-color flow cytometry. Serum CRP was quantified by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. TLR4 expression on CD14+ monocytes was higher in the R group at week 20. When treatment groups (R and RE) were combined, serum CRP was lower across time. Furthermore, serum CRP and inflammatory monocyte population size were lower in the RE group compared with the R group at the Post time point. When all groups (R, RE, and AC) were combined, TLR4 expression was greater on inflammatory monocytes (CD14+CD16+) compared with classic monocytes (CD14+CD16⁻) at all time points. In conclusion, rosuvastatin may influence monocyte inflammatory response by increasing TLR4 expression on circulating monocytes. The addition of exercise training to rosuvastatin treatment further lowered CRP and reduced the size of the inflammatory monocyte population, suggesting an additive anti-inflammatory effect of exercise. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling the effect of surgical sterilization on owned dog population size in Villa de Tezontepec, Hidalgo, Mexico, using an individual-based computer simulation model

PubMed Central

Kisiel, Luz Maria; Jones-Bitton, Andria; Sargeant, Jan M.; Coe, Jason B.; Flockhart, D. T. Tyler; Canales Vargas, Erick J.

2018-01-01

Surgical sterilization programs for dogs have been proposed as interventions to control dog population size. Models can be used to help identify the long-term impact of reproduction control interventions for dogs. The objective of this study was to determine the projected impact of surgical sterilization interventions on the owned dog population size in Villa de Tezontepec, Hidalgo, Mexico. A stochastic, individual-based simulation model was constructed and parameterized using a combination of empirical data collected on the demographics of owned dogs in Villa de Tezontepec and data available from the peer-reviewed literature. Model outcomes were assessed using a 20-year time horizon. The model was used to examine: the effect of surgical sterilization strategies focused on: 1) dogs of any age and sex, 2) female dogs of any age, 3) young dogs (i.e., not yet reached sexual maturity) of any sex, and 4) young, female dogs. Model outcomes suggested that as surgical capacity increases from 21 to 84 surgeries/month, (8.6% to 34.5% annual sterilization) for dogs of any age, the mean dog population size after 20 years was reduced between 14% and 79% compared to the base case scenario (i.e. in the absence of intervention). Surgical sterilization interventions focused only on young dogs of any sex yielded greater reductions (81% - 90%) in the mean population size, depending on the level of surgical capacity. More focused sterilization targeted at female dogs of any age, resulted in reductions that were similar to focusing on mixed sex sterilization of only young dogs (82% - 92%). The greatest mean reduction in population size (90% - 91%) was associated with sterilization of only young, female dogs. Our model suggests that targeting sterilization to young females could enhance the efficacy of existing surgical dog population control interventions in this location, without investing extra resources. PMID:29856830

USE OF EXPERT RATINGS AS SAMPLING STRATA FOR A MORE COST-EFFECTIVE PROBABILITY SAMPLE OF A RARE POPULATION

PubMed Central

McCaffrey, Daniel; Perlman, Judith; Marshall, Grant N.; Hambarsoomians, Katrin

2010-01-01

We consider situations in which externally observable characteristics allow experts to quickly categorize individual households as likely or unlikely to contain a member of a rare target population. This classification can form the basis of disproportionate stratified sampling such that households classified as “unlikely” are sampled at a lower rate than those classified as “likely,” thereby reducing screening costs. Design weights account for this approach and allow unbiased estimates for the target population. We demonstrate that with sensitivity and specificity of expert classification at least 70%, and ideally at least 80%, our approach can economically increase effective sample size for a rare population. We develop heuristics for implementing this approach and demonstrate that sensitivity drives design effects and screening costs whereas specificity only drives the latter. We demonstrate that the potential gains from this approach increase as the target population becomes rarer. We further show that for most applications, unlikely strata should be sampled at 1/6 to ½ the rate of likely strata. This approach was applied to a survey of Cambodian immigrants in which the 82% of households rated “unlikely” were sampled at ¼ the rate as “likely” households, reducing screening from 9.4 to 4.0 approaches per complete. Sensitivity and specificity were 86% and 91% respectively. Weighted estimation had a design effect of 1.26 so screening costs per effective sample size were reduced 47%. We also note that in this instance, expert classification appeared to be uncorrelated with survey outcomes of interest among eligibles. PMID:20936050

When bigger is not better: intraspecific competition for pollination increases with population size in invasive milkweeds.

PubMed

Ward, Megan; Johnson, Steven D; Zalucki, Myron P

2013-04-01

One of the essential requirements for an introduced plant species to become invasive is an ability to reproduce outside the native range, particularly when initial populations are small. If a reproductive Allee effect is operating, plants in small populations will have reduced reproductive success relative to plants in larger populations. Alternatively, if plants in small populations experience less competition for pollination than those in large populations, they may actually have higher levels of reproductive success than plants in large populations. To resolve this uncertainty, we investigated how the per capita fecundity of plants was affected by population size in three invasive milkweed species. Field surveys of seed production in natural populations of different sizes but similar densities were conducted for three pollinator-dependent invasive species, namely Asclepias curassavica, Gomphocarpus fruticosus and G. physocarpus. Additionally, supplemental hand-pollinations were performed in small and large populations in order to determine whether reproductive output was limited by pollinator activity in these populations. Reproductive Allee effects were not detected in any of the study species. Instead, plants in small populations exhibited remarkably high levels of reproductive output compared to those in large populations. Increased fruit production following supplemental hand-pollinations suggested that the lower reproductive output of naturally pollinated plants in large populations is a consequence of pollen limitation rather than limitation due to abiotic resources. This is consistent with increased intraspecific competition for pollination amongst plants in large populations. It is likely that the invasion of these milkweed species in Australia has been enhanced because plants in small founding populations experience less intraspecific competition for pollinators than those in large populations, and thus have the ability to produce copious amounts of seeds.

Ecological investigations to select mitigation options to reduce vehicle-caused mortality of a threatened butterfly

Treesearch

Sara B. Zielin; Jalene Littlejohn; Catherine E. de Rivera; Winston P. Smith; Sandra L. Jacobson

2016-01-01

Whereas roads that bisect habitat are known to decrease population size through animal-vehicle collisions or interruption of key life history events, it is not always obvious how to reduce such impacts, especially for flying organisms. We needed a quick, cost-efficient and effective way to determine how best to decrease vehicle-caused mortality while maintaining...

Population Size, Growth, and Environmental Justice Near Oil and Gas Wells in Colorado.

PubMed

McKenzie, Lisa M; Allshouse, William B; Burke, Troy; Blair, Benjamin D; Adgate, John L

2016-11-01

We evaluated population size and factors influencing environmental justice near oil and gas (O&G) wells. We mapped nearest O&G well to residential properties to evaluate population size, temporal relationships between housing and O&G development, and 2012 housing market value distributions in three major Colorado O&G basins. We reviewed land use, building, real estate, and state O&G regulations to evaluate distributive and participatory justice. We found that by 2012 at least 378,000 Coloradans lived within 1 mile of an active O&G well, and this population was growing at a faster rate than the overall population. In the Denver Julesburg and San Juan basins, which experienced substantial O&G development prior to 2000, we observed a larger proportion of lower value homes within 500 feet of an O&G well and that most O&G wells predated houses. In the Piceance Basin, which had not experienced substantial prior O&G development, we observed a larger proportion of high value homes within 500 feet of an O&G well and that most houses predated O&G wells. We observed economic, rural, participatory, and/or distributive injustices that could contribute to health risk vulnerabilities in populations near O&G wells. We encourage policy makers to consider measures to reduce these injustices.

Population and Individual Elephant Response to a Catastrophic Fire in Pilanesberg National Park

PubMed Central

Woolley, Leigh-Ann; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Woods, Rami J.; Janse van Rensburg, Samantha; Mackey, Robin L.; Page, Bruce; Slotow, Rob

2008-01-01

In predator-free large herbivore populations, where density-dependent feedbacks occur at the limit where forage resources can no longer support the population, environmental catastrophes may play a significant role in population regulation. The potential role of fire as a stochastic mass-mortality event limiting these populations is poorly understood, so too the behavioural and physiological responses of the affected animals to this type of large disturbance event. During September 2005, a wildfire resulted in mortality of 29 (18% population mortality) and injury to 18, African elephants in Pilanesberg National Park, South Africa. We examined movement and herd association patterns of six GPS-collared breeding herds, and evaluated population physiological response through faecal glucocorticoid metabolite (stress) levels. We investigated population size, structure and projected growth rates using a simulation model. After an initial flight response post-fire, severely injured breeding herds reduced daily displacement with increased daily variability, reduced home range size, spent more time in non-tourist areas and associated less with other herds. Uninjured, or less severely injured, breeding herds also shifted into non-tourist areas post-fire, but in contrast, increased displacement rate (both mean and variability), did not adjust home range size and formed larger herds post-fire. Adult cow stress hormone levels increased significantly post-fire, whereas juvenile and adult bull stress levels did not change significantly. Most mortality occurred to the juvenile age class causing a change in post-fire population age structure. Projected population growth rate remained unchanged at 6.5% p.a., and at current fecundity levels, the population would reach its previous level three to four years post-fire. The natural mortality patterns seen in elephant populations during stochastic events, such as droughts, follows that of the classic mortality pattern seen in predator-free large ungulate populations, i.e. mainly involving juveniles. Fire therefore functions in a similar manner to other environmental catastrophes and may be a natural mechanism contributing to population limitation. Welfare concerns of arson fires, burning during “hot-fire” conditions and the conservation implications of fire suppression (i.e. removal of a potential contributing factor to natural population regulation) should be integrated into fire management strategies for conservation areas. PMID:18797503

Estimates of effective population size and inbreeding in South African indigenous chicken populations: implications for the conservation of unique genetic resources.

PubMed

Mtileni, Bohani; Dzama, Kennedy; Nephawe, Khathutshelo; Rhode, Clint

2016-06-01

Conservation of locally adapted indigenous livestock breeds has become an important objective in sustainable animal breeding, as these breeds represent a unique genetic resource. Therefore, the Agricultural Research Council of South Africa initiated a conservation programme for four South African indigenous chicken breeds. The evaluation and monitoring of the genetic constitution of these conservation flocks is important for proper management of the conservation programme. Using molecular genetic analyses, the effective population sizes and relatedness of these conservation flocks were compared to village (field) chicken populations from which they were derived. Genetic diversity within and between these populations are further discussed within the context of population size. The conservation flocks for the respective breeds had relatively small effective population sizes (point estimate range 38.6-78.6) in comparison to the field populations (point estimate range 118.9-580.0). Furthermore, evidence supports a transient heterozygous excess, generally associated with the occurrence of a recent population bottleneck. Genetic diversity, as measured by the number of alleles, heterozygosity and information index, was also significantly reduced in the conservation flocks. The average relatedness amongst the conservation flocks was high, whilst it remained low for the field populations. There was also significant evidence for population differentiation between field and conservation populations. F st estimates for conservation flocks were moderate to high with a maximum reached between VD_C and VD_F (0.285). However, F st estimates for field population were excessively low between the NN_C and EC_F (0.007) and between EC_F and OV_F (0.009). The significant population differentiation of the conservation flocks from their geographically correlated field populations of origin is further supported by the analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA), with 10.51 % of genetic diversity ascribed to population differences within groups (F SC = 0.106). The results suggest that significant genetic erosion has occurred within the conservation flocks due to inbreeding, pronounced effects of random drift and selection. It might be necessary to introduce new breeding individuals from the respective field populations in order to increase the effective population sizes of the conservation flocks and counter the effects of genetic erosion.

When Faculties Are Reduced. Community Colleges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lombardi, John

1974-01-01

RIF (reduction in force) refers to policies used when dismissals of tenured and probationary instructors are necessary because of a change in the size or nature of student population, inadequate finances, discontinuance of instruction areas, or district consolidation. (Author/PG)

Quasispecies theory for finite populations

PubMed Central

Park, Jeong-Man; Muñoz, Enrique; Deem, Michael W.

2015-01-01

We present stochastic, finite-population formulations of the Crow-Kimura and Eigen models of quasispecies theory, for fitness functions that depend in an arbitrary way on the number of mutations from the wild type. We include back mutations in our description. We show that the fluctuation of the population numbers about the average values are exceedingly large in these physical models of evolution. We further show that horizontal gene transfer reduces by orders of magnitude the fluctuations in the population numbers and reduces the accumulation of deleterious mutations in the finite population due to Muller’s ratchet. Indeed the population sizes needed to converge to the infinite population limit are often larger than those found in nature for smooth fitness functions in the absence of horizontal gene transfer. These analytical results are derived for the steady-state by means of a field-theoretic representation. Numerical results are presented that indicate horizontal gene transfer speeds up the dynamics of evolution as well. PMID:20365394

Soil properties drive a negative correlation between species diversity and genetic diversity in a tropical seasonal rainforest

PubMed Central

Xu, Wumei; Liu, Lu; He, Tianhua; Cao, Min; Sha, Liqing; Hu, Yuehua; Li, Qiaoming; Li, Jie

2016-01-01

A negative species-genetic diversity correlation (SGDC) could be predicted by the niche variation hypothesis, whereby an increase in species diversity within community reduces the genetic diversity of the co-occurring species because of the reduction in average niche breadth; alternatively, competition could reduce effective population size and therefore genetic diversity of the species within community. We tested these predictions within a 20 ha tropical forest dynamics plot (FDP) in the Xishuangbanna tropical seasonal rainforest. We established 15 plots within the FDP and investigated the soil properties, tree diversity, and genetic diversity of a common tree species Beilschmiedia roxburghiana within each plot. We observed a significant negative correlation between tree diversity and the genetic diversity of B. roxburghiana within the communities. Using structural equation modeling, we further determined that the inter-plot environmental characteristics (soil pH and phosphorus availability) directly affected tree diversity and that the tree diversity within the community determined the genetic diversity of B. roxburghiana. Increased soil pH and phosphorus availability might promote the coexistence of more tree species within community and reduce genetic diversity of B. roxburghiana for the reduced average niche breadth; alternatively, competition could reduce effective population size and therefore genetic diversity of B. roxburghiana within community. PMID:26860815

Soil properties drive a negative correlation between species diversity and genetic diversity in a tropical seasonal rainforest.

PubMed

Xu, Wumei; Liu, Lu; He, Tianhua; Cao, Min; Sha, Liqing; Hu, Yuehua; Li, Qiaoming; Li, Jie

2016-02-10

A negative species-genetic diversity correlation (SGDC) could be predicted by the niche variation hypothesis, whereby an increase in species diversity within community reduces the genetic diversity of the co-occurring species because of the reduction in average niche breadth; alternatively, competition could reduce effective population size and therefore genetic diversity of the species within community. We tested these predictions within a 20 ha tropical forest dynamics plot (FDP) in the Xishuangbanna tropical seasonal rainforest. We established 15 plots within the FDP and investigated the soil properties, tree diversity, and genetic diversity of a common tree species Beilschmiedia roxburghiana within each plot. We observed a significant negative correlation between tree diversity and the genetic diversity of B. roxburghiana within the communities. Using structural equation modeling, we further determined that the inter-plot environmental characteristics (soil pH and phosphorus availability) directly affected tree diversity and that the tree diversity within the community determined the genetic diversity of B. roxburghiana. Increased soil pH and phosphorus availability might promote the coexistence of more tree species within community and reduce genetic diversity of B. roxburghiana for the reduced average niche breadth; alternatively, competition could reduce effective population size and therefore genetic diversity of B. roxburghiana within community.

Helper contributions in the cooperatively breeding laughing kookaburra: feeding young is no laughing matter.

PubMed

Legge

2000-05-01

I studied the contributions of individuals to incubation and nestling feeding in a population of cooperatively breeding laughing kookaburras, Dacelo novaeguineae. In most cooperatively breeding birds where nest success is limited by nestling starvation, related helpers increase the overall level of provisioning to the nest, thus boosting the production of nondescendent kin. However, although partial brood loss is the largest cause of lost productivity in kookaburra nests, additional helpers failed to increase overall provisioning. Instead, all group members, but especially helpers, reduced their feeding contributions as group size increased. Breeders and helpers reduced the size of prey delivered, and helpers also reduced the number of feeding visits. An important benefit of helping in kookaburras may be to allow all group members to reduce their effort. Within groups, contributions to care depended on status, sex, group size and the brood size. Breeding males delivered the most food. Breeding females provisioned less than their partner, but their effort was comparable to that of male helpers. Female helpers contributed the least food. Incubation effort followed similar patterns. The relatedness of helpers to the brood had no impact on their provisioning. Across all group sizes, helpers generally brought larger items to the nest than breeders. Copyright 2000 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

Application of a hybrid model to reduce bias and improve precision in population estimates for elk (Cervus elaphus) inhabiting a cold desert ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schoenecker, Kathryn A.; Lubow, Bruce C.

2016-01-01

Accurately estimating the size of wildlife populations is critical to wildlife management and conservation of species. Raw counts or “minimum counts” are still used as a basis for wildlife management decisions. Uncorrected raw counts are not only negatively biased due to failure to account for undetected animals, but also provide no estimate of precision on which to judge the utility of counts. We applied a hybrid population estimation technique that combined sightability modeling, radio collar-based mark-resight, and simultaneous double count (double-observer) modeling to estimate the population size of elk in a high elevation desert ecosystem. Combining several models maximizes the strengths of each individual model while minimizing their singular weaknesses. We collected data with aerial helicopter surveys of the elk population in the San Luis Valley and adjacent mountains in Colorado State, USA in 2005 and 2007. We present estimates from 7 alternative analyses: 3 based on different methods for obtaining a raw count and 4 based on different statistical models to correct for sighting probability bias. The most reliable of these approaches is a hybrid double-observer sightability model (model MH), which uses detection patterns of 2 independent observers in a helicopter plus telemetry-based detections of radio collared elk groups. Data were fit to customized mark-resight models with individual sighting covariates. Error estimates were obtained by a bootstrapping procedure. The hybrid method was an improvement over commonly used alternatives, with improved precision compared to sightability modeling and reduced bias compared to double-observer modeling. The resulting population estimate corrected for multiple sources of undercount bias that, if left uncorrected, would have underestimated the true population size by as much as 22.9%. Our comparison of these alternative methods demonstrates how various components of our method contribute to improving the final estimate and demonstrates why each is necessary.

Impacts of golden alga Prymnesium parvum on fish populations in reservoirs of the upper Colorado River and Brazos River basins, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

VanLandeghem, Matthew M.; Farooqi, Mukhtar; Farquhar, B.; Patino, Reynaldo

2013-01-01

Several reservoirs in the upper Colorado River and Brazos River basins in Texas have experienced toxic blooms of golden alga Prymnesium parvum and associated fish kills since 2001. There is a paucity of information, however, regarding the population-level effects of such kills in large reservoirs, species-specific resistance to or recovery from kills, or potential differences in the patterns of impacts among basins. We used multiple before-after, control-impact analysis to determine whether repeated golden alga blooms have led to declines in the relative abundance and size structure of fish populations. Sustained declines were noted for 9 of 12 fish species surveyed in the upper Colorado River, whereas only one of eight species was impacted by golden alga in the Brazos River. In the upper Colorado River, White Bass Morone chrysops, White Crappie Pomoxis annularis, Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides, Bluegill Lepomis macrochirus, River Carpsucker Carpiodes carpio, Freshwater Drum Aplodinotus grunniens, Channel Catfish Ictalurus punctatus, Flathead Catfish Pylodictis olivaris, and Blue Catfish I. furcatus exhibited sustained declines in relative abundance, size structure, or both; Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum, Longnose Gar Lepisosteus osseus, and Common Carp Cyprinus carpio did not exhibit those declines. In the Brazos River, only the relative abundance of Blue Catfish was impacted. Overall, toxic golden alga blooms can negatively impact fish populations over the long-term, but the patterns of impact can vary considerably among river basins and species. In the Brazos River, populations of most fish species appear to be healthy, suggesting a positive angling outlook for this basin. In the upper Colorado River, fish populations have been severely impacted, and angling opportunities have been reduced. Basin-specific management plans aimed at improving water quality and quantity will likely reduce bloom intensity and allow recovery of fish populations to the abundances and size structures present before golden alga. Received August 26, 2011; accepted November 25, 2012

Individual and Population-Level Impacts of an Emerging Poxvirus Disease in a Wild Population of Great Tits

PubMed Central

Lachish, Shelly; Bonsall, Michael B.; Lawson, Becki; Cunningham, Andrew A.; Sheldon, Ben C.

2012-01-01

Emerging infectious diseases of wildlife can have severe effects on host populations and constitute a pressing problem for biodiversity conservation. Paridae pox is an unusually severe form of avipoxvirus infection that has recently been identified as an emerging infectious disease particularly affecting an abundant songbird, the great tit (Parus major), in Great Britain. In this study, we study the invasion and establishment of Paridae pox in a long-term monitored population of wild great tits to (i) quantify the impact of this novel pathogen on host fitness and (ii) determine the potential threat it poses to population persistence. We show that Paridae pox significantly reduces the reproductive output of great tits by reducing the ability of parents to fledge young successfully and rear those young to independence. Our results also suggested that pathogen transmission from diseased parents to their offspring was possible, and that disease entails severe mortality costs for affected chicks. Application of multistate mark-recapture modelling showed that Paridae pox causes significant reductions to host survival, with particularly large effects observed for juvenile survival. Using an age-structured population model, we demonstrate that Paridae pox has the potential to reduce population growth rate, primarily through negative impacts on host survival rates. However, at currently observed prevalence, significant disease-induced population decline seems unlikely, although pox prevalence may be underestimated if capture probability of diseased individuals is low. Despite this, because pox-affected model populations exhibited lower average growth rates, this emerging infectious disease has the potential to reduce the resilience of populations to other environmental factors that reduce population size. PMID:23185263

Habitat degradation and fishing effects on the size structure of coral reef fish communities.

PubMed

Wilson, S K; Fisher, R; Pratchett, M S; Graham, N A J; Dulvy, N K; Turner, R A; Cakacaka, A; Polunin, N V C

2010-03-01

Overfishing and habitat degradation through climate change pose the greatest threats to sustainability of marine resources on coral reefs. We examined how changes in fishing pressure and benthic habitat composition influenced the size spectra of island-scale reef fish communities in Lau, Fiji. Between 2000 and 2006 fishing pressure declined in the Lau Islands due to declining human populations and reduced demand for fresh fish. At the same time, coral cover declined and fine-scale architectural complexity eroded due to coral bleaching and outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish, Acanthaster planci. We examined the size distribution of reef fish communities using size spectra analysis, the linearized relationship between abundance and body size class. Spatial variation in fishing pressure accounted for 31% of the variation in the slope of the size spectra in 2000, higher fishing pressure being associated with a steeper slope, which is indicative of fewer large-bodied fish and/or more small-bodied fish. Conversely, in 2006 spatial variation in habitat explained 53% of the variation in the size spectra slopes, and the relationship with fishing pressure was much weaker (approximately 12% of variation) than in 2000. Reduced cover of corals and lower structural complexity was associated with less steep size spectra slopes, primarily due to reduced abundance of fish < 20 cm. Habitat degradation will compound effects of fishing on coral reefs as increased fishing reduces large-bodied target species, while habitat loss results in fewer small-bodied juveniles and prey that replenish stocks and provide dietary resources for predatory target species. Effective management of reef resources therefore depends on both reducing fishing pressure and maintaining processes that encourage rapid recovery of coral habitat.

The effects of heavy metal mine drainage on population size structure, reproduction, and condition of western mosquitofish, Gambusia affinis.

PubMed

Franssen, Courtney M

2009-07-01

Anthropogenic degradation of aquatic environments worldwide results in disturbed habitats, altered communities, and stressed populations. Surface waters located in an abandoned lead-zinc mining district in northeastern Oklahoma are no exception. This study examines the reproductive and somatic responses of a pollution-tolerant fish, the western mosquitofish, Gambusia affinis (Teleostei: Poeciliidae), living in mine outflow waters contaminated by heavy metals. Populations were sampled from four streams, which were classified into three habitat types. Populations from Tar Creek and an Unnamed Tributary of Tar Creek receive direct input of mine drainage, while populations living in reference creeks are not known to have mining influence. The influence of mine drainage directly or indirectly (via altered competitor and predator regimes or changes in food availability) affects G. affinis at both the population and the individual level. Metal-contaminated sites had reduced proportions of males and reproductively active females and altered male population size structures. Individual-level effects were apparent, as all G. affinis from Tar Creek invested less in liver weights, and mature males and reproductively active females from Tar Creek invested less in gonad weights. Furthermore, males from impacted sites were significantly lighter than those from reference creeks. Gravid females from Tar Creek had smaller clutch sizes, but average embryo weight did not differ among streams.

Demographic aspects of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

PubMed

Lutz, Wolfgang; Striessnig, Erich

2015-01-01

This paper addresses the contribution of changes in population size and structures to greenhouse gas emissions and to the capacity to adapt to climate change. The paper goes beyond the conventional focus on the changing composition by age and sex. It does so by addressing explicitly the changing composition of the population by level of educational attainment, taking into account new evidence about the effect of educational attainment in reducing significantly the vulnerability of populations to climatic challenges. This evidence, which has inspired a new generation of socio-economic climate change scenarios, is summarized. While the earlier IPCC-SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios only included alternative trajectories for total population size (treating population essentially as a scaling parameter), the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) in the new scenarios were designed to capture the socio-economic challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation, and include full age, sex, and education details for all countries.

Population Response to Habitat Fragmentation in a Stream-Dwelling Brook Trout Population

PubMed Central

Letcher, Benjamin H.; Nislow, Keith H.; Coombs, Jason A.; O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Dubreuil, Todd L.

2007-01-01

Fragmentation can strongly influence population persistence and expression of life-history strategies in spatially-structured populations. In this study, we directly estimated size-specific dispersal, growth, and survival of stream-dwelling brook trout in a stream network with connected and naturally-isolated tributaries. We used multiple-generation, individual-based data to develop and parameterize a size-class and location-based population projection model, allowing us to test effects of fragmentation on population dynamics at local (i.e., subpopulation) and system-wide (i.e., metapopulation) scales, and to identify demographic rates which influence the persistence of isolated and fragmented populations. In the naturally-isolated tributary, persistence was associated with higher early juvenile survival (∼45% greater), shorter generation time (one-half) and strong selection against large body size compared to the open system, resulting in a stage-distribution skewed towards younger, smaller fish. Simulating barriers to upstream migration into two currently-connected tributary populations caused rapid (2–6 generations) local extinction. These local extinctions in turn increased the likelihood of system-wide extinction, as tributaries could no longer function as population sources. Extinction could be prevented in the open system if sufficient immigrants from downstream areas were available, but the influx of individuals necessary to counteract fragmentation effects was high (7–46% of the total population annually). In the absence of sufficient immigration, a demographic change (higher early survival characteristic of the isolated tributary) was also sufficient to rescue the population from fragmentation, suggesting that the observed differences in size distributions between the naturally-isolated and open system may reflect an evolutionary response to isolation. Combined with strong genetic divergence between the isolated tributary and open system, these results suggest that local adaptation can ‘rescue’ isolated populations, particularly in one-dimensional stream networks where both natural and anthropogenically-mediated isolation is common. However, whether rescue will occur before extinction depends critically on the race between adaptation and reduced survival in response to fragmentation. PMID:18188404

Population response to habitat fragmentation in a stream-dwelling brook trout population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Letcher, B.H.; Nislow, K.H.; Coombs, J.A.; O'Donnell, M. J.; Dubreuil, T.L.

2007-01-01

Fragmentation can strongly influence population persistence and expression of life-history strategies in spatially-structured populations. In this study, we directly estimated size-specific dispersal, growth, and survival of stream-dwelling brook trout in a stream network with connected and naturally-isolated tributaries. We used multiple-generation, individual-based data to develop and parameterize a size-class and location-based population projection model, allowing us to test effects of fragmentation on population dynamics at local (i.e., subpopulation) and system-wide (i.e., metapopulation) scales, and to identify demographic rates which influence the persistence of isolated and fragmented populations. In the naturally-isolated tributary, persistence was associated with higher early juvenile survival (-45% greater), shorter generation time (one-half) and strong selection against large body size compared to the open system, resulting in a stage-distribution skewed towards younger, smaller fish. Simulating barriers to upstream migration into two currently-connected tribuory populations caused rapid (2-6 generations) local extinction. These local extinctions in turn increased the likelihood of system-wide extinction, as tributaries could no longer function as population sources. Extinction could be prevented in the open system if sufficient immigrants from downstream areas were available, but the influx of individuals necessary to counteract fragmentation effects was high (7-46% of the total population annually). In the absence of sufficient immigration, a demographic change (higher early survival characteristic of the isolated tributary) was also sufficient to rescue the population from fragmentation, suggesting that the observed differences in size distributions between the naturally-isolated and open system may reflect an evolutionary response to isolation. Combined with strong genetic divergence between the isolated tributary and open system, these results suggest that local adaptation can 'rescue' isolated populations, particularly in one-dimensional stream networks where both natural and anthropegenically-mediated isolation is common. However, whether rescue will occur before extinction depends critically on the race between adaptation and reduced survival in response to fragmentation.

Projecting the success of plant restoration with population viability analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bell, T.J.; Bowles, M.L.; McEachern, A.K.; Brigham, C.A.; Schwartz, M.W.

2003-01-01

Conserving viable populations of plant species requires that they have high probabilities of long-term persistence within natural habitats, such as a chance of extinction in 100 years of less than 5% (Menges 1991, 1998; Brown 1994; Pavlik 1994; Chap. 1, this Vol.). For endangered and threatened species that have been severely reduces in range and whose habitats have been fragmented, important species conservation strategies may include augmenting existing populations or restoring new viable populations (Bowles and Whelan 1994; Chap. 2, this Vol.). Restoration objectives may include increasing population numbers to reduce extinction probability, deterministic manipulations to develop a staged cohort structure, or more complex restoration of a desired genetic structure to allow outcrossing or increase effective population size (DeMauro 1993, 1994; Bowles et al. 1993, 1998; Pavlik 1994; Knapp and Dyer 1998; Chap. 2, this Vol.). These efforts may require translocation of propagules from existing (in situ) populations, or from ex situ botanic gardens or seed storage facilities (Falk et al. 1996; Guerrant and Pavlik 1998; Chap. 2, this Vol.). Population viability analysis (PVA) can provide a critical foundation for plant restoration, as it models demographic projections used to evaluate the probability of population persistence and links plant life history with restoration strategies. It is unknown how well artificially created populations will meet demographic modeling requirements (e.g., due to artificial cohort transitions) and few, if any, PVAs have been applied to restorations. To guide application of PVA to restored populations and to illustrate potential difficulties, we examine effects of planting different life stages, model initial population sizes needed to achieve population viability, and compare demographic characteristics between natural and restored populations. We develop and compare plant population restoration viability analysis (PRVA) case studies of two plant species listed in the USA for which federal recovery planning calls for population restoration: Cirsium pitcheri, a short-lived semelparous herb, and Asclepias meadii, a long-lived iteroparous herb.

Temporal dynamics of genetic variability in a mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) population.

PubMed

Ortego, Joaquín; Yannic, Glenn; Shafer, Aaron B A; Mainguy, Julien; Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Coltman, David W; Côté, Steeve D

2011-04-01

The association between population dynamics and genetic variability is of fundamental importance for both evolutionary and conservation biology. We combined long-term population monitoring and molecular genetic data from 123 offspring and their parents at 28 microsatellite loci to investigate changes in genetic diversity over 14 cohorts in a small and relatively isolated population of mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) during a period of demographic increase. Offspring heterozygosity decreased while parental genetic similarity and inbreeding coefficients (F(IS) ) increased over the study period (1995-2008). Immigrants introduced three novel alleles into the population and matings between residents and immigrants produced more heterozygous offspring than local crosses, suggesting that immigration can increase population genetic variability. The population experienced genetic drift over the study period, reflected by a reduced allelic richness over time and an 'isolation-by-time' pattern of genetic structure. The temporal decline of individual genetic diversity despite increasing population size probably resulted from a combination of genetic drift due to small effective population size, inbreeding and insufficient counterbalancing by immigration. This study highlights the importance of long-term genetic monitoring to understand how demographic processes influence temporal changes of genetic diversity in long-lived organisms. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Size-conditional smolting and the response of Carmel River steelhead to two decades of conservation efforts

PubMed Central

Lopez Arriaza, Juan; Urquhart, Kevan; Mangel, Marc

2017-01-01

Threshold effects are common in ecosystems and can generate counterintuitive outcomes in management interventions. A threshold effect proposed for steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) is size-conditional smolting and marine survival. Steelhead are anadromous, maturing in the ocean but migrating to freshwater to spawn, where their offspring reside for one or more years before smolting—physiologically transforming to a saltwater form—and migrating to the ocean. In conditional smolting, juveniles transform only if growth exceeds a threshold body size prior to migration season, and subsequent marine survival correlates with size at ocean entry. Conditional smolting suggests that efforts to improve freshwater survival of juveniles may reduce smolt success if they increase competition and reduce growth. Using model-selection techniques, we asked if this effect explained declining numbers of adult Carmel River steelhead. This threatened population has been the focus of two decades of habitat restoration, as well as active translocation and captive-rearing of juveniles stranded in seasonally dewatered channels. In the top-ranked model selected by information-theoretic criteria, adult decline was linked to reduced juvenile growth rates in the lower river, consistent with the conditional smolting hypothesis. According to model inference, since 2005 most returning adult steelhead were captively-reared. However, a lower-ranked model without conditional smolting also had modest support, and suggested a negative effect of captive rearing. Translocations of juvenile fish to perennial reaches may have reduced the steelhead run slightly by raising competition, but this effect is confounded in the data with effects of river flow on growth. Efforts to recover Carmel River steelhead will probably be more successful if they focus on conditions promoting rapid growth in the river. Our analysis clearly favored a role for size-conditional smolting and marine survival in the decline of the population, but did not definitively rule out alternative explanations. PMID:29190806

Genetic effects of chronic habitat fragmentation in a wind-pollinated tree

PubMed Central

Jump, Alistair S.; Peñuelas, Josep

2006-01-01

Habitat fragmentation poses a serious threat to plants through genetic changes associated with increased isolation and reduced population size. However, the longevity of trees, combined with effective seed or pollen dispersal, can enhance their resistance to these effects. The European beech (Fagus sylvatica) dominates forest over large regions of Europe. We demonstrate that habitat fragmentation in this species has led to genetic bottlenecks and the disruption of the species' breeding system, leading to significantly elevated levels of inbreeding, population divergence, and reduced genetic diversity within populations. These results show that, in contrast with the findings of previous studies, forest fragmentation has a negative genetic impact, even in this widespread, wind-pollinated tree. The identification of significant effects of forest fragmentation in beech demonstrates that trees are not at reduced risk from environmental change. This should be accounted for in the management of remaining natural and seminatural forest throughout the world. PMID:16698935

Meeting Oregon's New High School Math Graduation Requirements: Examining Student Enrollment and Teacher Availability. Issues & Answers. REL 2012-No. 126

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raphael, Jacqueline; Sage, Nicole; Ishimaru, Ann

2012-01-01

Disaggregating the data across four school variables--size, locale, racial/ethnic minority population, and population eligible for free or reduced-price lunch--this study examines the extent to which Oregon grade 9-12 students enrolled in high school math courses during 2006/07 and 2007/08 would not have been on track to graduate had the new…

Meeting Oregon's New High School Math Graduation Requirements: Examining Student Enrollment and Teacher Availability. Summary. Issues & Answers. REL 2012-No. 126

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raphael, Jacqueline; Sage, Nicole; Ishimaru, Ann

2012-01-01

Disaggregating the data across four school variables--size, locale, racial/ethnic minority population, and population eligible for free or reduced-price lunch--this study examines the extent to which Oregon grade 9-12 students enrolled in high school math courses during 2006/07 and 2007/08 would not have been on track to graduate had the new…

[Effective size of subpopulation of the early run sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka from Azabach's Lake (Kamchatka): effect of density on variance of reproductive success].

PubMed

Efremov, V V; Parenskiĭ, V A

2004-04-01

Using Parensky's approach for estimating the number of breeding pairs, we determined effective subpopulation size Ne in early-run sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka from Azabach'e Lake (Kamchatka) in 1977 through 1981. On average (over years and populations), biased sex ratio decreased Ne by 7% as compared to the number of fish on the spawning sites (Ni). High density reduced the Ne/Ni ratio by 62-66% because some fish were excluded from spawning. Dominance polygyny as compared to monogamy and random union of gametes could reduce Ne by about 17%.

The program structure does not reliably recover the correct population structure when sampling is uneven: subsampling and new estimators alleviate the problem.

PubMed

Puechmaille, Sebastien J

2016-05-01

Inferences of population structure and more precisely the identification of genetically homogeneous groups of individuals are essential to the fields of ecology, evolutionary biology and conservation biology. Such population structure inferences are routinely investigated via the program structure implementing a Bayesian algorithm to identify groups of individuals at Hardy-Weinberg and linkage equilibrium. While the method is performing relatively well under various population models with even sampling between subpopulations, the robustness of the method to uneven sample size between subpopulations and/or hierarchical levels of population structure has not yet been tested despite being commonly encountered in empirical data sets. In this study, I used simulated and empirical microsatellite data sets to investigate the impact of uneven sample size between subpopulations and/or hierarchical levels of population structure on the detected population structure. The results demonstrated that uneven sampling often leads to wrong inferences on hierarchical structure and downward-biased estimates of the true number of subpopulations. Distinct subpopulations with reduced sampling tended to be merged together, while at the same time, individuals from extensively sampled subpopulations were generally split, despite belonging to the same panmictic population. Four new supervised methods to detect the number of clusters were developed and tested as part of this study and were found to outperform the existing methods using both evenly and unevenly sampled data sets. Additionally, a subsampling strategy aiming to reduce sampling unevenness between subpopulations is presented and tested. These results altogether demonstrate that when sampling evenness is accounted for, the detection of the correct population structure is greatly improved. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of long-term changes in the benthic community on yellow perch in Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.; Diana, James S.; Haas, Robert C.

2000-01-01

Abundance, mortality, age and growth, food habits, and energetics of a yellow perch Perca flavescens population were investigated in eutrophic Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron during May to October, 1986 to 1988, and compared population characteristics with historical data from times when eutrophic conditions were less severe. During 1986 to 1988, yellow perch were abundant, but grew slowly and experienced high natural mortality. A size threshold was present at 150 to 180 mm beyond which few individuals survived, and sex ratios became biased toward males. An energetic model suggested that yellow perch were food limited; as they increased in size they spent a greater proportion of the growing season near maintenance ration. Low feeding rates were a consequence of subsistence on small chironomid larvae. Piscivory provided little energetic relief. Historical data suggested that availability of large benthic prey such as nymphs of the burrowing mayfly Hexagenia was important to yellow perch. Yellow perch formerly consumed Hexagenia, but mayflies were extirpated from Saginaw Bay during 1953 to 1965, and never recovered. When Hexagenia was present, yellow perch growth was moderate to fast depending on population size, size thresholds were not present, and yellow perch reached large size and older age despite moderate to high fishing mortality. Decreases in yellow perch growth rates during 1952 to 1955 coincided with extirpation of Hexagenia. Fast growth of yellow perch did occur after Hexagenia became extirpated, but only when fishing mortality was high, population size was small, and some large benthic invertebrates remained. Eutrophication of Saginaw Bay appeared to affect yellow perch by changing species composition and reducing size structure of the benthic community.

The Cultural Evolution of Human Communication Systems in Different Sized Populations: Usability Trumps Learnability

PubMed Central

Fay, Nicolas; Ellison, T. Mark

2013-01-01

This study examines the intergenerational transfer of human communication systems. It tests if human communication systems evolve to be easy to learn or easy to use (or both), and how population size affects learnability and usability. Using an experimental-semiotic task, we find that human communication systems evolve to be easier to use (production efficiency and reproduction fidelity), but harder to learn (identification accuracy) for a second generation of naïve participants. Thus, usability trumps learnability. In addition, the communication systems that evolve in larger populations exhibit distinct advantages over those that evolve in smaller populations: the learnability loss (from the Initial signs) is more muted and the usability benefits are more pronounced. The usability benefits for human communication systems that evolve in a small and large population is explained through guided variation reducing sign complexity. The enhanced performance of the communication systems that evolve in larger populations is explained by the operation of a content bias acting on the larger pool of competing signs. The content bias selects for information-efficient iconic signs that aid learnability and enhance usability. PMID:23967243

Populational divergence in the impact of three nitrogenous compounds and their combination on larvae of the frog Pelophylax perezi (Seoane, 1885).

PubMed

Egea-Serrano, Andrés; Tejedo, Miguel; Torralva, Mar

2009-08-01

Pollution by nitrogenous compounds is a putative stressful factor that may be causally linked to the decline of amphibians. One way to understand the potentially detrimental consequences of eutrophication on amphibian populations is to investigate variation among populations differing in exposure to nitrogen, this variation potentially indicating evolutionary potential to cope with this stressor. We have examined the effect of nitrogenous compounds (NH(4)(+); NO(2)(-); NO(3)(-), both alone and in combination) on fitness-related larval traits in four populations of Pelophylax perezi naturally exposed to different degrees of eutrophication. The results indicate that both survival and larval final size decrease at higher concentrations of these compounds, either singly or in combination. Additionally, the nitrogenous compounds were more lethal and larval food consumption and final mass were significantly reduced when they were exposed to combinations of compounds. Populations inhabiting highly polluted aquatic environments tolerated higher levels of nitrogenous compounds and showed higher survival rates and larger final size than the populations of less polluted environments, suggesting the potential to adapt to increased nitrogenous contamination in this species.

The cultural evolution of human communication systems in different sized populations: usability trumps learnability.

PubMed

Fay, Nicolas; Ellison, T Mark

2013-01-01

This study examines the intergenerational transfer of human communication systems. It tests if human communication systems evolve to be easy to learn or easy to use (or both), and how population size affects learnability and usability. Using an experimental-semiotic task, we find that human communication systems evolve to be easier to use (production efficiency and reproduction fidelity), but harder to learn (identification accuracy) for a second generation of naïve participants. Thus, usability trumps learnability. In addition, the communication systems that evolve in larger populations exhibit distinct advantages over those that evolve in smaller populations: the learnability loss (from the Initial signs) is more muted and the usability benefits are more pronounced. The usability benefits for human communication systems that evolve in a small and large population is explained through guided variation reducing sign complexity. The enhanced performance of the communication systems that evolve in larger populations is explained by the operation of a content bias acting on the larger pool of competing signs. The content bias selects for information-efficient iconic signs that aid learnability and enhance usability.

DNA pooling strategies for categorical (ordinal) traits

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Despite reduced genotyping costs in recent years, obtaining genotypes for all individuals in a population may still not be feasible when sample size is large. DNA pooling provides a useful alternative to determining genotype effects. Clustering algorithms allow for grouping of individuals (observati...

FITPOP, a heuristic simulation model of population dynamics and genetics with special reference to fisheries

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenna, James E.

2000-01-01

Although, perceiving genetic differences and their effects on fish population dynamics is difficult, simulation models offer a means to explore and illustrate these effects. I partitioned the intrinsic rate of increase parameter of a simple logistic-competition model into three components, allowing specification of effects of relative differences in fitness and mortality, as well as finite rate of increase. This model was placed into an interactive, stochastic environment to allow easy manipulation of model parameters (FITPOP). Simulation results illustrated the effects of subtle differences in genetic and population parameters on total population size, overall fitness, and sensitivity of the system to variability. Several consequences of mixing genetically distinct populations were illustrated. For example, behaviors such as depression of population size after initial introgression and extirpation of native stocks due to continuous stocking of genetically inferior fish were reproduced. It also was shown that carrying capacity relative to the amount of stocking had an important influence on population dynamics. Uncertainty associated with parameter estimates reduced confidence in model projections. The FITPOP model provided a simple tool to explore population dynamics, which may assist in formulating management strategies and identifying research needs.

Prioritizing bird conservation actions in the Prairie Hardwood transition of the Midwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Crimmins, Shawn M.; Pearce, Jennie

2014-01-01

Large-scale planning for the conservation of species is often hindered by a poor understanding of factors limiting populations. In regions with declining wildlife populations, it is critical that objective metrics of conservation success are developed to ensure that conservation actions achieve desired results. Using spatially explicit estimates of bird abundance, we evaluated several management alternatives for conserving bird populations in the Prairie Hardwood Transition of the United States. We designed landscapes conserving species at 50% of their current predicted abundance as well as landscapes attempting to achieve species population targets (which often required the doubling of current abundance). Conserving species at reduced (half of current) abundance led to few conservation conflicts. However, because of extensive modification of the landscape to suit human use, strategies for achieving regional population targets for forest bird species would be difficult under even ideal circumstances, and even more so if maintenance of grassland bird populations is also desired. Our results indicated that large-scale restoration of agricultural lands to native grassland and forest habitats may be the most productive conservation action for increasing bird population sizes but the level of landscape transition required to approach target bird population sizes may be societally unacceptable.

Genetic diversity of Morato's Digger Toad, Proceratophrys moratoi: spatial structure, gene flow, effective size and the need for differential management strategies of populations

PubMed Central

Arruda, Mauricio P.; Costa, William P.; Recco-Pimentel, Shirlei M.

2017-01-01

Abstract The Morato's Digger Toad, Proceratophrys moratoi, is a critically endangered toad species with a marked population decline in southern Brazilian Cerrado. Despite this, new populations are being discovered, primarily in the northern part of the distribution range, which raises a number of questions with regard to the conservation status of the species. The present study analyzed the genetic diversity of the species based on microsatellite markers. Our findings permitted the identification of two distinct management units. We found profound genetic structuring between the southern populations, on the left margin of the Tietê River, and all other populations. A marked reduction was observed in the contemporary gene flow among the central populations that are most affected by anthropogenic impacts, such as extensive sugar cane plantations, which presumably decreases habitat connectivity. The results indicated reduced diversity in the southern populations which, combined with a smaller effective population size, may make these populations more susceptible to extinction. We recommend the reclassification of P. moratoi as vulnerable and the establishment of a special protection program for the southern populations. Our results provide important insights about the local extinction of southern populations of this toad. PMID:28590500

Devastating decline of forest elephants in central Africa.

PubMed

Maisels, Fiona; Strindberg, Samantha; Blake, Stephen; Wittemyer, George; Hart, John; Williamson, Elizabeth A; Aba'a, Rostand; Abitsi, Gaspard; Ambahe, Ruffin D; Amsini, Fidèl; Bakabana, Parfait C; Hicks, Thurston Cleveland; Bayogo, Rosine E; Bechem, Martha; Beyers, Rene L; Bezangoye, Anicet N; Boundja, Patrick; Bout, Nicolas; Akou, Marc Ella; Bene, Lambert Bene; Fosso, Bernard; Greengrass, Elizabeth; Grossmann, Falk; Ikamba-Nkulu, Clement; Ilambu, Omari; Inogwabini, Bila-Isia; Iyenguet, Fortune; Kiminou, Franck; Kokangoye, Max; Kujirakwinja, Deo; Latour, Stephanie; Liengola, Innocent; Mackaya, Quevain; Madidi, Jacob; Madzoke, Bola; Makoumbou, Calixte; Malanda, Guy-Aimé; Malonga, Richard; Mbani, Olivier; Mbendzo, Valentin A; Ambassa, Edgar; Ekinde, Albert; Mihindou, Yves; Morgan, Bethan J; Motsaba, Prosper; Moukala, Gabin; Mounguengui, Anselme; Mowawa, Brice S; Ndzai, Christian; Nixon, Stuart; Nkumu, Pele; Nzolani, Fabian; Pintea, Lilian; Plumptre, Andrew; Rainey, Hugo; de Semboli, Bruno Bokoto; Serckx, Adeline; Stokes, Emma; Turkalo, Andrea; Vanleeuwe, Hilde; Vosper, Ashley; Warren, Ymke

2013-01-01

African forest elephants- taxonomically and functionally unique-are being poached at accelerating rates, but we lack range-wide information on the repercussions. Analysis of the largest survey dataset ever assembled for forest elephants (80 foot-surveys; covering 13,000 km; 91,600 person-days of fieldwork) revealed that population size declined by ca. 62% between 2002-2011, and the taxon lost 30% of its geographical range. The population is now less than 10% of its potential size, occupying less than 25% of its potential range. High human population density, hunting intensity, absence of law enforcement, poor governance, and proximity to expanding infrastructure are the strongest predictors of decline. To save the remaining African forest elephants, illegal poaching for ivory and encroachment into core elephant habitat must be stopped. In addition, the international demand for ivory, which fuels illegal trade, must be dramatically reduced.

Imaging of vaporised sub-micron phase change contrast agents with high frame rate ultrasound and optics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Shengtao; Zhang, Ge; Jamburidze, Akaki; Chee, Melisse; Hau Leow, Chee; Garbin, Valeria; Tang, Meng-Xing

2018-03-01

Phase-change ultrasound contrast agent (PCCA), or nanodroplet, shows promise as an alternative to the conventional microbubble agent over a wide range of diagnostic applications. Meanwhile, high-frame-rate (HFR) ultrasound imaging with microbubbles enables unprecedented temporal resolution compared to traditional contrast-enhanced ultrasound imaging. The combination of HFR ultrasound imaging and PCCAs can offer the opportunity to observe and better understand PCCA behaviour after vaporisation captures the fast phenomenon at a high temporal resolution. In this study, we utilised HFR ultrasound at frame rates in the kilohertz range (5-20 kHz) to image native and size-selected PCCA populations immediately after vaporisation in vitro within clinical acoustic parameters. The size-selected PCCAs through filtration are shown to preserve a sub-micron-sized (mean diameter  <  200 nm) population without micron-sized outliers (>1 µm) that originate from native PCCA emulsion. The results demonstrate imaging signals with different amplitudes and temporal features compared to that of microbubbles. Compared with the microbubbles, both the B-mode and pulse-inversion (PI) signals from the vaporised PCCA populations were reduced significantly in the first tens of milliseconds, while only the B-mode signals from the PCCAs were recovered during the next 400 ms, suggesting significant changes to the size distribution of the PCCAs after vaporisation. It is also shown that such recovery in signal over time is not evident when using size-selective PCCAs. Furthermore, it was found that signals from the vaporised PCCA populations are affected by the amplitude and frame rate of the HFR ultrasound imaging. Using high-speed optical camera observation (30 kHz), we observed a change in particle size in the vaporised PCCA populations exposed to the HFR ultrasound imaging pulses. These findings can further the understanding of PCCA behaviour under HFR ultrasound imaging.

Persistence of butterfly populations in fragmented habitats along urban density gradients: motility helps

PubMed Central

Rochat, E; Manel, S; Deschamps-Cottin, M; Widmer, I; Joost, S

2017-01-01

In a simulation study of genotypes conducted over 100 generations for more than 1600 butterfly’s individuals, we evaluate how the increase of anthropogenic fragmentation and reduction of habitat size along urbanisation gradients (from 7 to 59% of impervious land cover) influences genetic diversity and population persistence in butterfly species. We show that in areas characterised by a high urbanisation rate (>56% impervious land cover), a large decrease of both genetic diversity (loss of 60–80% of initial observed heterozygosity) and population size (loss of 70–90% of individuals) is observed over time. This is confirmed by empirical data available for the mobile butterfly species Pieris rapae in a subpart of the study area. Comparing simulated data for P. rapae with its normal dispersal ability and with a reduced dispersal ability, we also show that a higher dispersal ability can be an advantage to survive in an urban or highly fragmented environment. The results obtained here suggest that it is of high importance to account for population persistence, and confirm that it is crucial to maintain habitat size and connectivity in the context of land-use planning. PMID:28792492

Incorporating detection probability into northern Great Plains pronghorn population estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacques, Christopher N.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Grovenburg, Troy W.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.

2014-01-01

Pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) abundances commonly are estimated using fixed-wing surveys, but these estimates are likely to be negatively biased because of violations of key assumptions underpinning line-transect methodology. Reducing bias and improving precision of abundance estimates through use of detection probability and mark-resight models may allow for more responsive pronghorn management actions. Given their potential application in population estimation, we evaluated detection probability and mark-resight models for use in estimating pronghorn population abundance. We used logistic regression to quantify probabilities that detecting pronghorn might be influenced by group size, animal activity, percent vegetation, cover type, and topography. We estimated pronghorn population size by study area and year using mixed logit-normal mark-resight (MLNM) models. Pronghorn detection probability increased with group size, animal activity, and percent vegetation; overall detection probability was 0.639 (95% CI = 0.612–0.667) with 396 of 620 pronghorn groups detected. Despite model selection uncertainty, the best detection probability models were 44% (range = 8–79%) and 180% (range = 139–217%) greater than traditional pronghorn population estimates. Similarly, the best MLNM models were 28% (range = 3–58%) and 147% (range = 124–180%) greater than traditional population estimates. Detection probability of pronghorn was not constant but depended on both intrinsic and extrinsic factors. When pronghorn detection probability is a function of animal group size, animal activity, landscape complexity, and percent vegetation, traditional aerial survey techniques will result in biased pronghorn abundance estimates. Standardizing survey conditions, increasing resighting occasions, or accounting for variation in individual heterogeneity in mark-resight models will increase the accuracy and precision of pronghorn population estimates.

Body downsizing caused by non-consumptive social stress severely depresses population growth rate

PubMed Central

Edeline, Eric; Haugen, Thrond O.; Weltzien, Finn-Arne; Claessen, David; Winfield, Ian J.; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Vøllestad, L. Asbjørn

2010-01-01

Chronic social stress diverts energy away from growth, reproduction and immunity, and is thus a potential driver of population dynamics. However, the effects of social stress on demographic density dependence remain largely overlooked in ecological theory. Here we combine behavioural experiments, physiology and population modelling to show in a top predator (pike Esox lucius) that social stress alone may be a primary driver of demographic density dependence. Doubling pike density in experimental ponds under controlled prey availability did not significantly change prey intake by pike (i.e. did not significantly change interference or exploitative competition), but induced a neuroendocrine stress response reflecting a size-dependent dominance hierarchy, depressed pike energetic status and lowered pike body growth rate by 23 per cent. Assuming fixed size-dependent survival and fecundity functions parameterized for the Windermere (UK) pike population, stress-induced smaller body size shifts age-specific survival rates and lowers age-specific fecundity, which in Leslie matrices projects into reduced population rate of increase (λ) by 37–56%. Our models also predict that social stress flattens elasticity profiles of λ to age-specific survival and fecundity, thus making population persistence more dependent on old individuals. Our results suggest that accounting for non-consumptive social stress from competitors and predators is necessary to accurately understand, predict and manage food-web dynamics. PMID:19923130

Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations.

PubMed

Hardstaff, Joanne L; Bulling, Mark T; Marion, Glenn; Hutchings, Michael R; White, Piran C L

2012-06-27

The persistence of bovine TB (bTB) in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles). The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental sources, using a spatial stochastic simulation model. The presence of external sources of infection can increase mean prevalence and reduce the threshold group size for disease persistence. Above the threshold equilibrium group size of 6-8 individuals predicted by the model for bTB persistence in badgers based on internal infection alone, external sources of infection have relatively little impact on the persistence or level of disease. However, within a critical range of group sizes just below this threshold level, external infection becomes much more important in determining disease dynamics. Within this critical range, external infection increases the ratio of intra- to inter-group infections due to the greater probability of external infections entering fully-susceptible groups. The effect is to enable bTB persistence and increase bTB prevalence in badger populations which would not be able to maintain bTB based on internal infection alone. External sources of bTB infection can contribute to the persistence of bTB in badger populations. In high-density badger populations, internal badger-derived infections occur at a sufficient rate that the additional effect of external sources in exacerbating disease is minimal. However, in lower-density populations, external sources of infection are much more important in enhancing bTB prevalence and persistence. In such circumstances, it is particularly important that control strategies to reduce bTB in badgers include efforts to minimise such external sources of infection.

Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The persistence of bovine TB (bTB) in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles). The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental sources, using a spatial stochastic simulation model. Results The presence of external sources of infection can increase mean prevalence and reduce the threshold group size for disease persistence. Above the threshold equilibrium group size of 6–8 individuals predicted by the model for bTB persistence in badgers based on internal infection alone, external sources of infection have relatively little impact on the persistence or level of disease. However, within a critical range of group sizes just below this threshold level, external infection becomes much more important in determining disease dynamics. Within this critical range, external infection increases the ratio of intra- to inter-group infections due to the greater probability of external infections entering fully-susceptible groups. The effect is to enable bTB persistence and increase bTB prevalence in badger populations which would not be able to maintain bTB based on internal infection alone. Conclusions External sources of bTB infection can contribute to the persistence of bTB in badger populations. In high-density badger populations, internal badger-derived infections occur at a sufficient rate that the additional effect of external sources in exacerbating disease is minimal. However, in lower-density populations, external sources of infection are much more important in enhancing bTB prevalence and persistence. In such circumstances, it is particularly important that control strategies to reduce bTB in badgers include efforts to minimise such external sources of infection. PMID:22738118

Genetic structure and early effects of inbreeding in fragmented temperate forests of a self-incompatible tree, Embothrium coccineum.

PubMed

Mathiasen, Paula; Rovere, Adriana E; Premoli, Andrea C

2007-02-01

Deforestation of temperate forests has created landscapes of forest remnants in matrices of intense human use. We studied the genetic effects of fragmentation in southern Chile on Embothrium coccineum J.R. et G. Forster, an early colonizing, bird-pollinated tree. We tested the hypothesis that, because of its self-incompatibility and life-history strategy, E. coccineum is less strongly affected by fragmentation. We studied the effects of reduced population size and increased isolation on population genetic structure and early performance of progeny. Samples were collected from spatially isolated trees and six fragments of differing sizes (small, 1 ha; medium, 20 ha; large, >150 ha). Based on isozyme polymorphisms we estimated parameters of genetic diversity, divergence, and inbreeding for adults and greenhouse-grown progeny. We also measured germination, seedling growth, and outcrossing rates on progeny arrays. Genetic variation of adults did not correlate significantly with population size, as expected, given that fragmentation occurred relatively recently. Weak effects of fragmentation were measured on progeny. Only adults yielded significant inbreeding. Similar total genetic diversity was found in adults and progeny. Low but significant genetic differentiation existed among adult and progeny populations. Seedling growth correlated positively with the effective number of alleles, showing deleterious effects of inbreeding on progeny. Seeds from small fragments had the highest outcrossing rates and germination success, indicating that higher pollinator activity in such fragments reduced selfing, thereby buffering genetic erosion and maintaining adaptive variation. The effects of forest fragmentation were detectable in E. coccineum, but these effects will probably not be detrimental to the viability of remnant populations because small, fragmented populations demonstrated higher levels of gene flow and lower inbreeding than larger stands. Pioneer species that are insensitive to forest clearing may be crucial in recovery plans to facilitate the establishment of species intolerant to such disturbance.

T-cell-specific deletion of Mof blocks their differentiation and results in genomic instability in mice

PubMed Central

Pandita, Tej K.

2013-01-01

Ataxia telangiectasia patients develop lymphoid malignancies of both B- and T-cell origin. Similarly, ataxia telangiectasia mutated (Atm)-deficient mice exhibit severe defects in T-cell maturation and eventually develop thymomas. The function of ATM is known to be influenced by the mammalian orthologue of the Drosophila MOF (males absent on the first) gene. Here, we report the effect of T-cell-specific ablation of the mouse Mof (Mof) gene on leucocyte trafficking and survival. Conditional Mof Flox/Flox (Mof F/F) mice expressing Cre recombinase under control of the T-cell-specific Lck proximal promoter (Mof F/F/Lck-Cre +) display a marked reduction in thymus size compared with Mof F/F/Lck-Cre – mice. In contrast, the spleen size of Mof F/F/Lck-Cre + mice was increased compared with control Mof F/F/Lck-Cre – mice. The thymus of Mof F/F/Lck-Cre + mice contained significantly reduced T cells, whereas thymic B cells were elevated. Within the T-cell population, CD4+CD8+ double-positive T-cell levels were reduced, whereas the immature CD4–CD8– double-negative (DN) population was elevated. Defective T-cell differentiation is also evident as an increased DN3 (CD44–CD25+) population, the cell stage during which T-cell receptor rearrangement takes place. The differentiation defect in T cells and reduced thymus size were not rescued in a p53-deficient background. Splenic B-cell distributions were similar between Mof F/F/Lck-Cre + and Mof F/F/Lck-Cre – mice except for an elevation of the κ light-chain population, suggestive of an abnormal clonal expansion. T cells from Mof F/F/Lck-Cre + mice did not respond to phytohaemagglutinin (PHA) stimulation, whereas LPS-stimulated B cells from Mof F/F/Lck-Cre + mice demonstrated spontaneous genomic instability. Mice with T-cell-specific loss of MOF had shorter lifespans and decreased survival following irradiation than did Mof F/F/Lck-Cre – mice. These observations suggest that Mof plays a critical role in T-cell differentiation and that depletion of Mof in T cells reduces T-cell numbers and, by an undefined mechanism, induces genomic instability in B cells through bystander mechanism. As a result, these mice have a shorter lifespan and reduced survival after irradiation. PMID:23386701

T-cell-specific deletion of Mof blocks their differentiation and results in genomic instability in mice.

PubMed

Gupta, Arun; Hunt, Clayton R; Pandita, Raj K; Pae, Juhee; Komal, K; Singh, Mayank; Shay, Jerry W; Kumar, Rakesh; Ariizumi, Kiyoshi; Horikoshi, Nobuo; Hittelman, Walter N; Guha, Chandan; Ludwig, Thomas; Pandita, Tej K

2013-05-01

Ataxia telangiectasia patients develop lymphoid malignancies of both B- and T-cell origin. Similarly, ataxia telangiectasia mutated (Atm)-deficient mice exhibit severe defects in T-cell maturation and eventually develop thymomas. The function of ATM is known to be influenced by the mammalian orthologue of the Drosophila MOF (males absent on the first) gene. Here, we report the effect of T-cell-specific ablation of the mouse Mof (Mof) gene on leucocyte trafficking and survival. Conditional Mof(Flox/Flox) (Mof (F/F)) mice expressing Cre recombinase under control of the T-cell-specific Lck proximal promoter (Mof(F/F)/Lck-Cre(+)) display a marked reduction in thymus size compared with Mof(F/F)/Lck-Cre(-) mice. In contrast, the spleen size of Mof(F/F)/Lck-Cre(+) mice was increased compared with control Mof(F/F)/Lck-Cre(-) mice. The thymus of Mof(F/F)/Lck-Cre(+) mice contained significantly reduced T cells, whereas thymic B cells were elevated. Within the T-cell population, CD4(+)CD8(+) double-positive T-cell levels were reduced, whereas the immature CD4(-)CD8(-) double-negative (DN) population was elevated. Defective T-cell differentiation is also evident as an increased DN3 (CD44(-)CD25(+)) population, the cell stage during which T-cell receptor rearrangement takes place. The differentiation defect in T cells and reduced thymus size were not rescued in a p53-deficient background. Splenic B-cell distributions were similar between Mof(F/F)/Lck-Cre(+) and Mof(F/F)/Lck-Cre(-) mice except for an elevation of the κ light-chain population, suggestive of an abnormal clonal expansion. T cells from Mof(F/F)/Lck-Cre(+) mice did not respond to phytohaemagglutinin (PHA) stimulation, whereas LPS-stimulated B cells from Mof(F/F)/Lck-Cre(+) mice demonstrated spontaneous genomic instability. Mice with T-cell-specific loss of MOF had shorter lifespans and decreased survival following irradiation than did Mof(F/F)/Lck-Cre(-) mice. These observations suggest that Mof plays a critical role in T-cell differentiation and that depletion of Mof in T cells reduces T-cell numbers and, by an undefined mechanism, induces genomic instability in B cells through bystander mechanism. As a result, these mice have a shorter lifespan and reduced survival after irradiation.

Floaters may buffer the extinction risk of small populations: an empirical assessment

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The high extinction risk of small populations is commonly explained by reductions in fecundity and breeder survival associated with demographic and environmental stochasticity. However, ecological theory suggests that population extinctions may also arise from reductions in the number of floaters able to replace the lost breeders. This can be particularly plausible under harsh fragmentation scenarios, where species must survive as small populations subjected to severe effects of stochasticity. Using a woodpecker study in fragmented habitats (2004–2016), we provide here empirical support for the largely neglected hypothesis that floaters buffer population extirpation risks. After controlling for population size, patch size and the intrinsic quality of habitat, populations in patches with floaters had a lower extinction probability than populations in patches without floaters (0.013 versus 0.131). Floaters, which often replace the lost breeders, were less likely to occur in small and low-quality patches, showing that population extirpations may arise from unnoticed reductions in floater numbers in poor-quality habitats. We argue that adequate pools of the typically overlooked floaters may buffer extirpation risks by reducing the detrimental impacts of demographic and environmental stochasticity. However, unravelling the influence of floaters in buffering stochastic effects and promoting population stability require additional studies in an ample array of species and stochastic scenarios. PMID:28424345

Floaters may buffer the extinction risk of small populations: an empirical assessment.

PubMed

Robles, Hugo; Ciudad, Carlos

2017-04-26

The high extinction risk of small populations is commonly explained by reductions in fecundity and breeder survival associated with demographic and environmental stochasticity. However, ecological theory suggests that population extinctions may also arise from reductions in the number of floaters able to replace the lost breeders. This can be particularly plausible under harsh fragmentation scenarios, where species must survive as small populations subjected to severe effects of stochasticity. Using a woodpecker study in fragmented habitats (2004-2016), we provide here empirical support for the largely neglected hypothesis that floaters buffer population extirpation risks. After controlling for population size, patch size and the intrinsic quality of habitat, populations in patches with floaters had a lower extinction probability than populations in patches without floaters (0.013 versus 0.131). Floaters, which often replace the lost breeders, were less likely to occur in small and low-quality patches, showing that population extirpations may arise from unnoticed reductions in floater numbers in poor-quality habitats. We argue that adequate pools of the typically overlooked floaters may buffer extirpation risks by reducing the detrimental impacts of demographic and environmental stochasticity. However, unravelling the influence of floaters in buffering stochastic effects and promoting population stability require additional studies in an ample array of species and stochastic scenarios. © 2017 The Author(s).

Practical Advice on Calculating Confidence Intervals for Radioprotection Effects and Reducing Animal Numbers in Radiation Countermeasure Experiments

PubMed Central

Landes, Reid D.; Lensing, Shelly Y.; Kodell, Ralph L.; Hauer-Jensen, Martin

2014-01-01

The dose of a substance that causes death in P% of a population is called an LDP, where LD stands for lethal dose. In radiation research, a common LDP of interest is the radiation dose that kills 50% of the population by a specified time, i.e., lethal dose 50 or LD50. When comparing LD50 between two populations, relative potency is the parameter of interest. In radiation research, this is commonly known as the dose reduction factor (DRF). Unfortunately, statistical inference on dose reduction factor is seldom reported. We illustrate how to calculate confidence intervals for dose reduction factor, which may then be used for statistical inference. Further, most dose reduction factor experiments use hundreds, rather than tens of animals. Through better dosing strategies and the use of a recently available sample size formula, we also show how animal numbers may be reduced while maintaining high statistical power. The illustrations center on realistic examples comparing LD50 values between a radiation countermeasure group and a radiation-only control. We also provide easy-to-use spreadsheets for sample size calculations and confidence interval calculations, as well as SAS® and R code for the latter. PMID:24164553

Potential demographic and genetic effects of a sterilant applied to wild horse mares

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roelle, James E.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.

2015-01-01

Wild horse populations on western ranges can increase rapidly, resulting in the need for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to remove animals in order to protect the habitat that horses share with numerous other species. As an alternative to removals, BLM has sought to develop a long-term, perhaps even permanent, contraceptive to aid in reducing population growth rates. With long-term (perhaps even permanent) efficacy of contraception, however, comes increased concern about the genetic health of populations and about the potential for local extirpation. We used simulation modeling to examine the potential demographic and genetic consequences of applying a mare sterilant to wild horse populations. Using the VORTEX software package, we modeled the potential effects of a sterilant on 70 simulated populations having different initial sizes (7 values), growth rates (5 values), and genetic diversity (2 values). For each population, we varied the treatment rate of mares from 0 to 100 percent in increments of 10 percent. For each combination of these treatment levels, we ran 100 stochastic simulations, and we present the results in the form of tables and graphs showing mean population size after 20 years, mean number of removals after 20 years, mean probability of extirpation after 50 years, and mean heterozygosity after 50 years. By choosing one or two combinations of initial population size, population growth rate, and genetic diversity that best represent a herd of interest, a manager can assess the likely effects of a contraceptive program by examining the output tables and graphs representing the selected conditions.

The effects of isolation on the demography and genetic diversity of long-lived species: Implications for conservation and management of the gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ennen, J.R.; Birkhead, R.D.; Kreiser, B.R.; Gaillard, D.L.; Qualls, C.P.; Lovich, J.E.

2011-01-01

In the southeastern United States, habitat loss has fragmented the landscape and isolated many populations of this region's flora and fauna, which has presumably resulted in smaller population sizes and reduced levels of genetic diversity. For example, forestry practices and anthropogenic disturbances are both cited as factors fragmenting the once extensive range of Gopherus polyphemus. One localized, but extreme, source of fragmentation was the impoundment of the Chattahoochee River in 1963 to form Walter F. George Reservoir along the border of Georgia and Alabama. The formation of this reservoir isolated populations of G. polyphemus on two newly created islands providing a natural laboratory to explore the demographics and genetic effects of fragmentation on a long-lived species. These populations were first surveyed in 1984 and, 21 years later, we revisited them to collect demographic data and tissue samples for genetic analysis. We genotyped all individuals for 10 microsatellite loci, and we tested these data for bottlenecks and compared them to levels of genetic diversity for populations from other portions of the range. We found 45 and two individuals on the larger and smaller islands, respectively. On the large island, however, the population size was identical to the 1984 survey. Only the population structure based on estimated age differed between the 1984 and 2004 surveys, while population size structure based on carapace length, sex ratio, and sex-specific growth rates did not differ. The population of the large island showed genetic evidence of a past bottleneck. The genetic diversity indices from the population of the large island, however, were comparable to or greater than those found at mainland sites, in particular from western populations.

Limited evolutionary rescue of locally adapted populations facing climate change.

PubMed

Schiffers, Katja; Bourne, Elizabeth C; Lavergne, Sébastien; Thuiller, Wilfried; Travis, Justin M J

2013-01-19

Dispersal is a key determinant of a population's evolutionary potential. It facilitates the propagation of beneficial alleles throughout the distributional range of spatially outspread populations and increases the speed of adaptation. However, when habitat is heterogeneous and individuals are locally adapted, dispersal may, at the same time, reduce fitness through increasing maladaptation. Here, we use a spatially explicit, allelic simulation model to quantify how these equivocal effects of dispersal affect a population's evolutionary response to changing climate. Individuals carry a diploid set of chromosomes, with alleles coding for adaptation to non-climatic environmental conditions and climatic conditions, respectively. Our model results demonstrate that the interplay between gene flow and habitat heterogeneity may decrease effective dispersal and population size to such an extent that substantially reduces the likelihood of evolutionary rescue. Importantly, even when evolutionary rescue saves a population from extinction, its spatial range following climate change may be strongly narrowed, that is, the rescue is only partial. These findings emphasize that neglecting the impact of non-climatic, local adaptation might lead to a considerable overestimation of a population's evolvability under rapid environmental change.

Modelled Cost-Effectiveness of a Package Size Cap and a Kilojoule Reduction Intervention to Reduce Energy Intake from Sugar-Sweetened Beverages in Australia.

PubMed

Crino, Michelle; Herrera, Ana Maria Mantilla; Ananthapavan, Jaithri; Wu, Jason H Y; Neal, Bruce; Lee, Yong Yi; Zheng, Miaobing; Lal, Anita; Sacks, Gary

2017-09-06

Interventions targeting portion size and energy density of food and beverage products have been identified as a promising approach for obesity prevention. This study modelled the potential cost-effectiveness of: a package size cap on single-serve sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) >375 mL ( package size cap ), and product reformulation to reduce energy content of packaged SSBs ( energy reduction ). The cost-effectiveness of each intervention was modelled for the 2010 Australia population using a multi-state life table Markov model with a lifetime time horizon. Long-term health outcomes were modelled from calculated changes in body mass index to their impact on Health-Adjusted Life Years (HALYs). Intervention costs were estimated from a limited societal perspective. Cost and health outcomes were discounted at 3%. Total intervention costs estimated in AUD 2010 were AUD 210 million. Both interventions resulted in reduced mean body weight ( package size cap : 0.12 kg; energy reduction : 0.23 kg); and HALYs gained ( package size cap : 73,883; energy reduction : 144,621). Cost offsets were estimated at AUD 750.8 million ( package size cap ) and AUD 1.4 billion ( energy reduction ). Cost-effectiveness analyses showed that both interventions were "dominant", and likely to result in long term cost savings and health benefits. A package size cap and kJ reduction of SSBs are likely to offer excellent "value for money" as obesity prevention measures in Australia.

Modelled Cost-Effectiveness of a Package Size Cap and a Kilojoule Reduction Intervention to Reduce Energy Intake from Sugar-Sweetened Beverages in Australia

PubMed Central

Mantilla Herrera, Ana Maria; Neal, Bruce; Zheng, Miaobing; Lal, Anita; Sacks, Gary

2017-01-01

Interventions targeting portion size and energy density of food and beverage products have been identified as a promising approach for obesity prevention. This study modelled the potential cost-effectiveness of: a package size cap on single-serve sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) >375 mL (package size cap), and product reformulation to reduce energy content of packaged SSBs (energy reduction). The cost-effectiveness of each intervention was modelled for the 2010 Australia population using a multi-state life table Markov model with a lifetime time horizon. Long-term health outcomes were modelled from calculated changes in body mass index to their impact on Health-Adjusted Life Years (HALYs). Intervention costs were estimated from a limited societal perspective. Cost and health outcomes were discounted at 3%. Total intervention costs estimated in AUD 2010 were AUD 210 million. Both interventions resulted in reduced mean body weight (package size cap: 0.12 kg; energy reduction: 0.23 kg); and HALYs gained (package size cap: 73,883; energy reduction: 144,621). Cost offsets were estimated at AUD 750.8 million (package size cap) and AUD 1.4 billion (energy reduction). Cost-effectiveness analyses showed that both interventions were “dominant”, and likely to result in long term cost savings and health benefits. A package size cap and kJ reduction of SSBs are likely to offer excellent “value for money” as obesity prevention measures in Australia. PMID:28878175

Fossil and genetic history of a pinyon pine (Pinus edulis) isolate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Betancourt, J.L.; Schuster, W.S.; Mitton, J.B.; Anderson, R. Scott

1991-01-01

The most isolated northern stand of Colorado pinyon pine at Owl Canyon, Colorado, has a broad and flat size class distribution common to population expansions, with the largest and oldest trees near the center of the grove. Analyses of fossil packrat Neotoma middens within the grove indicate that the stand originated by long-distance dispersal rather than by vicariance. The 5000-yr pollen and macrofossil record suggests that pinyon pine colonized the site sometime between 1290-420 yr BP, the latter age corresponding to the oldest tree in the stand. Electrophoretic data show that this colonization was not attended by typical founder effects predicted by theory or observed for other known founder events. The Owl Canyon stand has not suffered significant losses in genetic variation relative to likely source populations. Large initial population size, multiple founding events, rapid population growth, or selection favoring heterozygous genotypes could all explain the high heterozygosity and only slightly reduced polymorphism and number of alleles per locus. -from Authors

Regulation of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics in Field Systems: Quantifying Direct and Delayed Density Dependence

PubMed Central

Walsh, Rachael K.; Aguilar, Cristobal L.; Facchinelli, Luca; Valerio, Laura; Ramsey, Janine M.; Scott, Thomas W.; Lloyd, Alun L.; Gould, Fred

2013-01-01

Transgenic strains of Aedes aegypti have been engineered to help control transmission of dengue virus. Although resources have been invested in developing the strains, we lack data on the ecology of mosquitoes that could impact the success of this approach. Although studies of intra-specific competition have been conducted using Ae. aegypti larvae, none of these studies examine mixed age cohorts at densities that occur in the field, with natural nutrient levels. Experiments were conducted in Mexico to determine the impact of direct and delayed density dependence on Ae. aegypti populations. Natural water, food, and larval densities were used to estimate the impacts of density dependence on larval survival, development, and adult body size. Direct and delayed density-dependent factors had a significant impact on larval survival, larval development, and adult body size. These results indicate that control methods attempting to reduce mosquito populations may be counteracted by density-dependent population regulation. PMID:23669230

The minimum area requirements (MAR) for giant panda: an empirical study.

PubMed

Qing, Jing; Yang, Zhisong; He, Ke; Zhang, Zejun; Gu, Xiaodong; Yang, Xuyu; Zhang, Wen; Yang, Biao; Qi, Dunwu; Dai, Qiang

2016-12-08

Habitat fragmentation can reduce population viability, especially for area-sensitive species. The Minimum Area Requirements (MAR) of a population is the area required for the population's long-term persistence. In this study, the response of occupancy probability of giant pandas against habitat patch size was studied in five of the six mountain ranges inhabited by giant panda, which cover over 78% of the global distribution of giant panda habitat. The probability of giant panda occurrence was positively associated with habitat patch area, and the observed increase in occupancy probability with patch size was higher than that due to passive sampling alone. These results suggest that the giant panda is an area-sensitive species. The MAR for giant panda was estimated to be 114.7 km 2 based on analysis of its occupancy probability. Giant panda habitats appear more fragmented in the three southern mountain ranges, while they are large and more continuous in the other two. Establishing corridors among habitat patches can mitigate habitat fragmentation, but expanding habitat patch sizes is necessary in mountain ranges where fragmentation is most intensive.

Managing the Cayo Santiago rhesus macaque population: The role of density.

PubMed

Hernandez-Pacheco, Raisa; Delgado, Diana L; Rawlins, Richard G; Kessler, Matthew J; Ruiz-Lambides, Angelina V; Maldonado, Elizabeth; Sabat, Alberto M

2016-01-01

Cayo Santiago is the oldest continuously operating free-ranging rhesus monkey colony in the world. Population control of this colony has historically been carried out by periodic live capture and removal of animals. However, the effect of such a strategy on the size, growth rate, age structure, and sex ratio of the population has not been analyzed. This study reviews past removal data and uses a population projection model to simulate the effects of different removal schemes based on Cayo Santiago demographic data from 2000-2012. The model incorporates negative density-dependence in female fertility, as well as male and female survival rates, to determine the population-level effects of selective removal by age and sex. Modeling revealed that removal of sexually immature individuals has negligible effects on the population dynamics explaining why with an initial population of 1309 in 2000 and annual removals of immature monkeys a mean annual population growth rate of 12% and a final population size of ∼1,435 individuals by 2012 (∼0.009 animal/m(2) ) was observed. With no removals, the population is expected to exhibit dampened oscillations until reaching equilibrium at ∼1,690 individuals (∼0.0111 animal/m(2) ) in 2,100. In contrast, removal of adult females (≥4 yrs) would significantly reduce the population size, but would also promote an increase in population growth rate due to density feedback. A maximum annual production of 275 births is expected when 550 adult females are present in the population. Sensitivity analyses showed that removing females, in contrast to controlling their fertility through invasive treatments would contribute the most to changes in population growth rate. Given the density compensation on fertility, stabilizing the population would require removing ∼80% of the current population of adult females. This study highlights the importance of addressing the population-level density effects, as well as sensitivity analyses, to optimize management strategies. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

An assessment of sauger population characteristics on two Tennessee River reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graham, Christy L.; Bettoli, Phillip William; Churchill, Timothy N.

2015-01-01

In 1992, a 356-mm minimum length limit (MLL) was enacted on Kentucky Lake and a 381-mm MLL was enacted on Watts Bar Lake, two mainstem reservoirs on the Tennessee River, in an attempt to reduce exploitation and improve the size structure of the sauger (Sander canadensis) populations. The objectives of this study were to compare sauger population characteristics immediately following (1993–1994) and 15 years after (2008–2009) the regulations took effect, examine spatial and temporal patterns in growth, examine recruitment patterns in each reservoir using a recruitment variability index (RVI), and assess the current likelihood of overfishing. Saugers were collected with experimental gill nets in each reservoir and aged using otoliths. A Beverton-Holt yield-per-recruit model was used to simulate angler yields and estimate the likelihood of growth overfishing. Recruitment overfishing was assessed by examining spawning potential ratios under various MLL and exploitation rate scenarios. The sauger population in Kentucky Lake experienced modest improvements in size and age structure over the 15 years following enactment of more restrictive harvest regulations, whereas the population in Watts Bar Lake changed very little, if at all, in terms of size and age structure. Mean lengths of age-3 sauger were significantly greater in Watts Bar Lake than in Kentucky Lake in both time periods. The RVI values indicated that between 1993 and 2009 the sauger in Kentucky Lake displayed more stable recruitment than the Watts Bar Lake population. Neither population exhibited signs of growth overfishing in 2008–09 under the current length limits; however, the Watts Bar Lake population would be susceptible to recruitment overfishing at high (>40%) exploitation rates if natural mortality was as low as 20%. These analyses have demonstrated that the Watts Bar Lake and Kentucky Lake populations, in terms of size and age structure, have remained relatively stable over 15+ years and the MLLs appear to be conserving the stocks.

Impact of forestry practices at a landscape scale on the dynamics of amphibian populations.

PubMed

Harper, Elizabeth B; Patrick, David A; Gibbs, James P

2015-12-01

Forest loss is a primary cause of worldwide amphibian decline. Timber harvesting in the United States has caused dramatic changes in quality and extent of forest ecosystems, and intensive forest management still occurs. Although numerous studies have documented substantial reductions in amphibian densities related to timber harvest, subsequent extinctions are rare. To better understand the population dynamics that have allowed so many amphibian species to persist in the face of widespread forest disturbance, we developed spatially explicit metapopulation models for four forest-dependent amphibian species (Lithobates sylvaticus, Ambystoma opacum, A. talpoideum, and A. maculatum) that incorporated demographic and habitat selection data derived from experiments conducted as part of the Land Use Effects on Amphibian Populations Project (LEAP). We projected local and landscape-scale population persistence under 108 different forestry practice scenarios, varying treatment (partial cut, clear-cut with coarse woody debris [CWD] removed, and clearcut with CWD retained), cut patch size (1, 10, or 50 ha), total area cut (10, 20, or 30%), and initial amphibian population size (5, 50, or 500 adult females per local breeding population). Under these scenarios, landscape-scale extinction was highly unlikely, occurring in < 1% of model runs and for only 2 of the 4 species, because landscape-scale populations were able to persist via dispersal even despite frequent local extinctions. Yet for all species, population sizes were reduced to -50% in all clear-cut scenarios, regardless of the size of harvested patches. These findings suggest that debate over timber harvesting on pool-breeding amphibian populations in the United States should focus not on questions of landscape-scale extinction but on the ecological consequences of dramatic reductions in amphibian biomass, including changes in trophic interactions, nutrient cycling, and energy transfer. Additionally, we conclude that amphibian declines and extinctions are far more likely to occur as a result of permanent habitat loss resulting from development than from the temporary degradation of habitat caused by current forestry practices.

Impact of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill on population size and genetic structure of horse flies in Louisiana marshes

PubMed Central

Husseneder, Claudia; Donaldson, Jennifer R.; Foil, Lane D.

2016-01-01

The greenhead horse fly, Tabanus nigrovittatus Macquart, is frequently found in coastal marshes of the Eastern United States. The greenhead horse fly larvae are top predators in the marsh and thus vulnerable to changes in the environment, and the adults potentially are attracted to polarized surfaces like oil. Therefore, horse fly populations could serve as bioindicators of marsh health and toxic effects of oil intrusion. In this study, we describe the impact of the April 2010 Deep Water Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico on tabanid population abundance and genetics as well as mating structure. Horse fly populations were sampled biweekly from oiled and unaffected locations immediately after the oil spill in June 2010 until October 2011. Horse fly abundance estimates showed severe crashes of tabanid populations in oiled areas. Microsatellite genotyping of six pristine and seven oiled populations at ten polymorphic loci detected genetic bottlenecks in six of the oiled populations in association with fewer breeding parents, reduced effective population size, lower number of family clusters and fewer migrants among populations. This is the first study assessing the impact of oil contamination at the level of a top arthropod predator of the invertebrate community in salt marshes. PMID:26755069

The role of life histories and trophic interactions in population recovery.

PubMed

Audzijonyte, Asta; Kuparinen, Anna

2016-08-01

Factors affecting population recovery from depletion are at the focus of wildlife management. Particularly, it has been debated how life-history characteristics might affect population recovery ability and productivity. Many exploited fish stocks have shown temporal changes towards earlier maturation and reduced adult body size, potentially owing to evolutionary responses to fishing. Whereas such life-history changes have been widely documented, their potential role on stock's ability to recover from exploitation often remains ignored by traditional fisheries management. We used a marine ecosystem model parameterized for Southeastern Australian ecosystem to explore how changes towards "faster" life histories might affect population per capita growth rate r. We show that for most species changes towards earlier maturation during fishing have a negative effect (3-40% decrease) on r during the recovery phase. Faster juvenile growth and earlier maturation were beneficial early in life, but smaller adult body sizes reduced the lifetime reproductive output and increased adult natural mortality. However, both at intra- and inter-specific level natural mortality and trophic position of the species were as important in determining r as species longevity and age of maturation, suggesting that r cannot be predicted from life-history traits alone. Our study highlights that factors affecting population recovery ability and productivity should be explored in a multi-species context, where both age-specific fecundity and survival schedules are addressed simultaneously. It also suggests that contemporary life-history changes in harvested species are unlikely to increase their resilience and recovery ability. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Rapid and repeated origin of insular gigantism and dwarfism in Australian tiger snakes.

PubMed

Keogh, J Scott; Scott, Ian A W; Hayes, Christine

2005-01-01

It is a well-known phenomenon that islands can support populations of gigantic or dwarf forms of mainland conspecifics, but the variety of explanatory hypotheses for this phenomenon have been difficult to disentangle. The highly venomous Australian tiger snakes (genus Notechis) represent a well-known and extreme example of insular body size variation. They are of special interest because there are multiple populations of dwarfs and giants and the age of the islands and thus the age of the tiger snake populations are known from detailed sea level studies. Most are 5000-7000 years old and all are less than 10,000 years old. Here we discriminate between two competing hypotheses with a molecular phylogeography dataset comprising approximately 4800 bp of mtDNA and demonstrate that populations of island dwarfs and giants have evolved five times independently. In each case the closest relatives of the giant or dwarf populations are mainland tiger snakes, and in four of the five cases, the closest relatives are also the most geographically proximate mainland tiger snakes. Moreover, these body size shifts have evolved extremely rapidly and this is reflected in the genetic divergence between island body size variants and mainland snakes. Within south eastern Australia, where populations of island giants, populations of island dwarfs, and mainland tiger snakes all occur, the maximum genetic divergence is only 0.38%. Dwarf tiger snakes are restricted to prey items that are much smaller than the prey items of mainland tiger snakes and giant tiger snakes are restricted to seasonally available prey items that are up three times larger than the prey items of mainland tiger snakes. We support the hypotheses that these body size shifts are due to strong selection imposed by the size of available prey items, rather than shared evolutionary history, and our results are consistent with the notion that adaptive plasticity also has played an important role in body size shifts. We suggest that plasticity displayed early on in the occupation of these new islands provided the flexibility necessary as the island's available prey items became more depauperate, but once the size range of available prey items was reduced, strong natural selection followed by genetic assimilation worked to optimize snake body size. The rate of body size divergence in haldanes is similar for dwarfs (h(g) = 0.0010) and giants (h(g) = 0.0020-0.0025) and is in line with other studies of rapid evolution. Our data provide strong evidence for rapid and repeated morphological divergence in the wild due to similar selective pressures acting in different directions.

Differential investment in pre- vs. post-copulatory sexual selection reinforces a cross-continental reversal of sexual size dimorphism in Sepsis punctum (Diptera: Sepsidae).

PubMed

Puniamoorthy, Nalini; Blanckenhorn, W U; Schäfer, M A

2012-11-01

Theory predicts that males have a limited amount of resources to invest in reproduction, suggesting a trade-off between traits that enhance mate acquisition and those that enhance fertilization success. Here, we investigate the relationship between pre- and post-copulatory investment by comparing the mating behaviour and reproductive morphology of four European and five North American populations of the dung fly Sepsis punctum (Diptera) that display a reversal of sexual size dimorphism (SSD). We show that the geographic reversal in SSD between the continents (male biased in Europe, female biased in North America) is accompanied by differential investment in pre- vs. post-copulatory traits. We find higher remating rates in European populations, where larger males acquire more matings and consequently have evolved relatively larger testes and steeper hyper-allometry with body size. American populations, in sharp contrast, display much reduced, if any, effect of body size on those traits. Instead, North American males demonstrate an increased investment in mate acquisition prior to copulation, with more mounting attempts and a distinctive abdominal courtship display that is completely absent in Europe. When controlling for body size, relative female spermathecal size is similar on both continents, so we find no direct evidence for the co-evolution of male and female internal reproductive morphology. By comparing allopatric populations of the same species that apparently have evolved different mating systems and consequently SSD, we thus indirectly demonstrate differential investment in pre- vs. post-copulatory mechanisms increasing reproductive success. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2012 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Prospects for Genomic Selection in Cassava Breeding.

PubMed

Wolfe, Marnin D; Del Carpio, Dunia Pino; Alabi, Olumide; Ezenwaka, Lydia C; Ikeogu, Ugochukwu N; Kayondo, Ismail S; Lozano, Roberto; Okeke, Uche G; Ozimati, Alfred A; Williams, Esuma; Egesi, Chiedozie; Kawuki, Robert S; Kulakow, Peter; Rabbi, Ismail Y; Jannink, Jean-Luc

2017-11-01

Cassava ( Crantz) is a clonally propagated staple food crop in the tropics. Genomic selection (GS) has been implemented at three breeding institutions in Africa to reduce cycle times. Initial studies provided promising estimates of predictive abilities. Here, we expand on previous analyses by assessing the accuracy of seven prediction models for seven traits in three prediction scenarios: cross-validation within populations, cross-population prediction and cross-generation prediction. We also evaluated the impact of increasing the training population (TP) size by phenotyping progenies selected either at random or with a genetic algorithm. Cross-validation results were mostly consistent across programs, with nonadditive models predicting of 10% better on average. Cross-population accuracy was generally low (mean = 0.18) but prediction of cassava mosaic disease increased up to 57% in one Nigerian population when data from another related population were combined. Accuracy across generations was poorer than within-generation accuracy, as expected, but accuracy for dry matter content and mosaic disease severity should be sufficient for rapid-cycling GS. Selection of a prediction model made some difference across generations, but increasing TP size was more important. With a genetic algorithm, selection of one-third of progeny could achieve an accuracy equivalent to phenotyping all progeny. We are in the early stages of GS for this crop but the results are promising for some traits. General guidelines that are emerging are that TPs need to continue to grow but phenotyping can be done on a cleverly selected subset of individuals, reducing the overall phenotyping burden. Copyright © 2017 Crop Science Society of America.

Optimal exploitation strategies for an animal population in a stochastic serially correlated environment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, D.R.

1974-01-01

Optimal exploitation strategies were studied for an animal population in a stochastic, serially correlated environment. This is a general case and encompasses a number of important cases as simplifications. Data on the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) were used to explore the exploitation strategies and test several hypotheses because relatively much is known concerning the life history and general ecology of this species and extensive empirical data are available for analysis. The number of small ponds on the central breeding grounds was used as an index to the state of the environment. Desirable properties of an optimal exploitation strategy were defined. A mathematical model was formulated to provide a synthesis of the existing literature, estimates of parameters developed from an analysis of data, and hypotheses regarding the specific effect of exploitation on total survival. Both the literature and the analysis of data were inconclusive concerning the effect of exploitation on survival. Therefore, alternative hypotheses were formulated: (1) exploitation mortality represents a largely additive form of mortality, or (2 ) exploitation mortality is compensatory with other forms of mortality, at least to some threshold level. Models incorporating these two hypotheses were formulated as stochastic dynamic programming models and optimal exploitation strategies were derived numerically on a digital computer. Optimal exploitation strategies were found to exist under rather general conditions. Direct feedback control was an integral component in the optimal decision-making process. Optimal exploitation was found to be substantially different depending upon the hypothesis regarding the effect of exploitation on the population. Assuming that exploitation is largely an additive force of mortality, optimal exploitation decisions are a convex function of the size of the breeding population and a linear or slightly concave function of the environmental conditions. Optimal exploitation under this hypothesis tends to reduce the variance of the size of the population. Under the hypothesis of compensatory mortality forces, optimal exploitation decisions are approximately linearly related to the size of the breeding population. Environmental variables may be somewhat more important than the size of the breeding population to the production of young mallards. In contrast, the size of the breeding population appears to be more important in the exploitation process than is the state of the environment. The form of the exploitation strategy appears to be relatively insensitive to small changes in the production rate. In general, the relative importance of the size of the breeding population may decrease as fecundity increases. The optimal level of exploitation in year t must be based on the observed size of the population and the state of the environment in year t unless the dynamics of the population, the state of the environment, and the result of the exploitation decisions are completely deterministic. Exploitation based on an average harvest, harvest rate, or designed to maintain a constant breeding population size is inefficient.

Demographic consequences of greater clonal than sexual reproduction in Dicentra canadensis.

PubMed

Lin, Chia-Hua; Miriti, Maria N; Goodell, Karen

2016-06-01

Clonality is a widespread life history trait in flowering plants that may be essential for population persistence, especially in environments where sexual reproduction is unpredictable. Frequent clonal reproduction, however, could hinder sexual reproduction by spatially aggregating ramets that compete with seedlings and reduce inter-genet pollination. Nevertheless, the role of clonality in relation to variable sexual reproduction in population dynamics is often overlooked. We combined population matrix models and pollination experiments to compare the demographic contributions of clonal and sexual reproduction in three Dicentra canadensis populations, one in a well-forested landscape and two in isolated forest remnants. We constructed stage-based transition matrices from 3 years of census data to evaluate annual population growth rates, λ. We used loop analysis to evaluate the relative contribution of different reproductive pathways to λ. Despite strong temporal and spatial variation in seed set, populations generally showed stable growth rates. Although we detected some pollen limitation of seed set, manipulative pollination treatments did not affect population growth rates. Clonal reproduction contributed significantly more than sexual reproduction to population growth in the forest remnants. Only at the well-forested site did sexual reproduction contribute as much as clonal reproduction to population growth. Flowering plants were more likely to transition to a smaller size class with reduced reproductive potential in the following year than similarly sized nonflowering plants, suggesting energy trade-offs between sexual and clonal reproduction at the individual level. Seed production had negligible effects on growth and tuber production of individual plants. Our results demonstrate that clonal reproduction is vital for population persistence in a system where sexual reproduction is unpredictable. The bias toward clonality may be driven by low fitness returns for resource investment in sexual reproduction at the individual level. However, chronic failure in sexual reproduction may exacerbate the imbalance between sexual and clonal reproduction and eventually lead to irreversible loss of sex in the population.

Devastating Decline of Forest Elephants in Central Africa

PubMed Central

Blake, Stephen; Wittemyer, George; Hart, John; Williamson, Elizabeth A.; Aba’a, Rostand; Abitsi, Gaspard; Ambahe, Ruffin D.; Amsini, Fidèl; Bakabana, Parfait C.; Hicks, Thurston Cleveland; Bayogo, Rosine E.; Bechem, Martha; Beyers, Rene L.; Bezangoye, Anicet N.; Boundja, Patrick; Bout, Nicolas; Akou, Marc Ella; Bene, Lambert Bene; Fosso, Bernard; Greengrass, Elizabeth; Grossmann, Falk; Ikamba-Nkulu, Clement; Ilambu, Omari; Inogwabini, Bila-Isia; Iyenguet, Fortune; Kiminou, Franck; Kokangoye, Max; Kujirakwinja, Deo; Latour, Stephanie; Liengola, Innocent; Mackaya, Quevain; Madidi, Jacob; Madzoke, Bola; Makoumbou, Calixte; Malanda, Guy-Aimé; Malonga, Richard; Mbani, Olivier; Mbendzo, Valentin A.; Ambassa, Edgar; Ekinde, Albert; Mihindou, Yves; Morgan, Bethan J.; Motsaba, Prosper; Moukala, Gabin; Mounguengui, Anselme; Mowawa, Brice S.; Ndzai, Christian; Nixon, Stuart; Nkumu, Pele; Nzolani, Fabian; Pintea, Lilian; Plumptre, Andrew; Rainey, Hugo; de Semboli, Bruno Bokoto; Serckx, Adeline; Stokes, Emma; Turkalo, Andrea; Vanleeuwe, Hilde; Vosper, Ashley; Warren, Ymke

2013-01-01

African forest elephants– taxonomically and functionally unique–are being poached at accelerating rates, but we lack range-wide information on the repercussions. Analysis of the largest survey dataset ever assembled for forest elephants (80 foot-surveys; covering 13,000 km; 91,600 person-days of fieldwork) revealed that population size declined by ca. 62% between 2002–2011, and the taxon lost 30% of its geographical range. The population is now less than 10% of its potential size, occupying less than 25% of its potential range. High human population density, hunting intensity, absence of law enforcement, poor governance, and proximity to expanding infrastructure are the strongest predictors of decline. To save the remaining African forest elephants, illegal poaching for ivory and encroachment into core elephant habitat must be stopped. In addition, the international demand for ivory, which fuels illegal trade, must be dramatically reduced. PMID:23469289

Reduced Genetic Diversity and Increased Structure in American Mink on the Swedish Coast following Invasive Species Control.

PubMed

Zalewski, Andrzej; Zalewska, Hanna; Lunneryd, Sven-Gunnar; André, Carl; Mikusiński, Grzegorz

2016-01-01

Eradication and population reductions are often used to mitigate the negative impacts of non-native invasive species on native biodiversity. However, monitoring the effectiveness of non-native species control programmes is necessary to evaluate the efficacy of these measures. Genetic monitoring could provide valuable insights into temporal changes in demographic, ecological, and evolutionary processes in invasive populations being subject to control programmes. Such programmes should cause a decrease in effective population size and/or in genetic diversity of the targeted non-native species and an increase in population genetic structuring over time. We used microsatellite DNA data from American mink (Neovison vison) to determine whether the removal of this predator on the Koster Islands archipelago and the nearby Swedish mainland affected genetic variation over six consecutive years of mink culling by trappers as part of a population control programme. We found that on Koster Islands allelic richness decreased (from on average 4.53 to 3.55), genetic structuring increased, and effective population size did not change. In contrast, the mink population from the Swedish coast showed no changes in genetic diversity or structure, suggesting the stability of this population over 6 years of culling. Effective population size did not change over time but was higher on the coast than on the islands across all years. Migration rates from the islands to the coast were almost two times higher than from the coast to the islands. Most migrants leaving the coast were localised on the southern edge of the archipelago, as expected from the direction of the sea current between the two sites. Genetic monitoring provided valuable information on temporal changes in the population of American mink suggesting that this approach can be used to evaluate and improve control programmes of invasive vertebrates.

Effects of trichloroethylene and perchloroethylene on wild rodents at Edwards Air Force Base, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spring, Sarah E.; Miles, A. Keith; Anderson, Michael J.

2004-01-01

Effects of inhalation of volatilized trichloroethylene (TCE) or perchloroethylene (PCE) were assessed based on the health and population size of wild, burrowing mammals at Edwards Air Force Base (CA, USA). Organic soil-vapor concentrations were measured at three sites with aquifer contamination of TCE or PCE of 5.5 to 77 mg/L and at two uncontaminated reference sites. Population estimates of kangaroo rats (Dipodomys merriami and D. panamintinus) as well as hematology, blood chemistry, and histopathology of kangaroo rats and deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) were compared between contaminated and uncontaminated populations. Maximum soil-gas concentrations associated with groundwater contamination were less than 1.5 μl/L of TCE and 0.07 μl/L of PCE. Population estimates of kangaroo rats were similar at contaminated and reference sites. Hematology, blood chemistry, and histopathology of kangaroo rats and deer mice indicated no evidence of health effects caused by exposure. Trichloroethylene or PCE in groundwater and in related soil gas did not appear to reduce the size of small mammal populations or impair the health of individuals.

Tropical insular fish assemblages are resilient to flood disturbance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, William E.; Kwak, Thomas J.

2015-01-01

Periods of stable environmental conditions, favoring development of ecological communities regulated by density-dependent processes, are interrupted by random periods of disturbance that may restructure communities. Disturbance may affect populations via habitat alteration, mortality, or displacement. We quantified fish habitat conditions, density, and movement before and after a major flood disturbance in a Caribbean island tropical river using habitat surveys, fish sampling and population estimates, radio telemetry, and passively monitored PIT tags. Native stream fish populations showed evidence of acute mortality and downstream displacement of surviving fish. All fish species were reduced in number at most life stages after the disturbance, but populations responded with recruitment and migration into vacated upstream habitats. Changes in density were uneven among size classes for most species, indicating altered size structures. Rapid recovery processes at the population level appeared to dampen effects at the assemblage level, as fish assemblage parameters (species richness and diversity) were unchanged by the flooding. The native fish assemblage appeared resilient to flood disturbance, rapidly compensating for mortality and displacement with increased recruitment and recolonization of upstream habitats.

Impact of oral hygiene and socio-demographic factors on dental caries in a suburban population in Nigeria.

PubMed

Oyedele, T A; Fadeju, A D; Adeyemo, Y I; Nzomiwu, C L; Ladeji, A M

2018-05-14

This was to determine dental caries determinants in the study participants. This was a secondary data study extracted from primary data through a school-based study that recruited students from primary and secondary schools in a suburban population in Nigeria. The variables included age, gender, socio-economic status, oral hygiene status, type of parenting, birth rank, family size and presence of dental caries. The diagnosis of dental caries was based on the World Health Oral Health Survey recommendations while oral hygiene was determined using simplified-oral hygiene index (OHI-S). Data was analysed using STATA version 13, statistical significance was set at P < 0.05. The prevalence of dental caries for the study population was 12.2%, DMFT and dmft were 0.16 and 0.06 respectively. Children within age groups 11-13 and 14-16 years had reduced chances of having dental caries (P = 0.01; P = 0.01); children with fair oral hygiene and poor oral hygiene had increased odds of having dental caries (P ≤ 0.001; P ≤ 0.001), last child of the family also had increased odds of having dental caries while children from large family size had reduced odds of having dental caries. This study also showed that first permanent molars and second primary molars were mostly affected by dental caries but there was no significant difference between distribution of the maxillary or mandibular jaw or between right and left quadrants. Age, oral hygiene, birth rank and family size were the significant determinants of dental caries in the study population and the teeth mostly affected were first permanent molars and second primary molars.

The role of inbreeding and outbreeding in herbivore resistance and tolerance in Vincetoxicum hirundinaria

PubMed Central

Muola, Anne; Mutikainen, Pia; Laukkanen, Liisa; Lilley, Marianna; Leimu, Roosa

2011-01-01

Background and Aims Inbreeding via self-fertilization may have negative effects on plant fitness (i.e. inbreeding depression). Outbreeding, or cross-fertilization between genetically dissimilar parental plants, may also disrupt local adaptation or allelic co-adaptation in the offspring and again lead to reduced plant fitness (i.e. outbreeding depression). Inbreeding and outbreeding may also increase plant vulnerability to natural enemies by altering plant quality or defence. The effects of inbreeding and outbreeding on plant size and response to herbivory in the perennial herb, Vincetoxicum hirundinaria, were investigated. Methods Greenhouse experiments were conducted using inbred and outbred (within- and between-population) offspring of 20 maternal plants from four different populations, quantifying plant germination, size, resistance against the specialist folivore, Abrostola asclepiadis, and tolerance of simulated defoliation. Key Results Selfed plants were smaller and more susceptible to damage by A. asclepiadis than outcrossed plants. However, herbivore biomass on selfed and outcrossed plants did not differ. The effects of inbreeding on plant performance and resistance did not differ among plant populations or families, and no inbreeding depression at all was found in tolerance of defoliation. Between-population outcrossing had no effect on plant performance or resistance against A. asclepiadis, indicating a lack of outbreeding depression. Conclusions Since inbreeding depression negatively affects plant size and herbivore resistance, inbreeding may modify the evolution of the interaction between V. hirundinaria and its specialist folivore. The results further suggest that herbivory may contribute to the maintenance of a mixed mating system of the host plants by selecting for outcrossing and reduced susceptibility to herbivore attack, and thus add to the growing body of evidence on the effects of inbreeding on the mating system evolution of the host plants and the dynamics of plant–herbivore interactions. PMID:21803741

Trapped within the city: integrating demography, time since isolation and population-specific traits to assess the genetic effects of urbanization.

PubMed

Lourenço, André; Álvarez, David; Wang, Ian J; Velo-Antón, Guillermo

2017-03-01

Urbanization is a severe form of habitat fragmentation that can cause many species to be locally extirpated and many others to become trapped and isolated within an urban matrix. The role of drift in reducing genetic diversity and increasing genetic differentiation is well recognized in urban populations. However, explicit incorporation and analysis of the demographic and temporal factors promoting drift in urban environments are poorly studied. Here, we genotyped 15 microsatellites in 320 fire salamanders from the historical city of Oviedo (Est. 8th century) to assess the effects of time since isolation, demographic history (historical effective population size; N e ) and patch size on genetic diversity, population structure and contemporary N e . Our results indicate that urban populations of fire salamanders are highly differentiated, most likely due to the recent N e declines, as calculated in coalescence analyses, concomitant with the urban development of Oviedo. However, urbanization only caused a small loss of genetic diversity. Regression modelling showed that patch size was positively associated with contemporary N e , while we found only moderate support for the effects of demographic history when excluding populations with unresolved history. This highlights the interplay between different factors in determining current genetic diversity and structure. Overall, the results of our study on urban populations of fire salamanders provide some of the very first insights into the mechanisms affecting changes in genetic diversity and population differentiation via drift in urban environments, a crucial subject in a world where increasing urbanization is forecasted. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using Pop-II models to predict effects of wolf predation and hunter harvests on elk, mule deer, and moose on the northern range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mack, John A.; Singer, Francis J.

1993-01-01

The effects of establishing a gray wolf (Canis lupus) population in Yellowstone National Park were predicted for three ungulate species—elk (Cervus elaphus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and moose (Alces alces)—using previously developed POP-II population models. We developed models for 78 and 100 wolves. For each wolf population, we ran scenarios using wolf predation rates of 9, 12, and 15 ungulates/wolf/year. With 78 wolves and the antlerless elk harvest reduced 27%, our modeled elk population estimated were 5-18% smaller than the model estimate without wolves. With 100 wolves and the antlerless elk harvest reduced 27%, our elk population estimated were 11-30% smaller than the population estimates without wolves. Wolf predation effects were greater on the modeled mule deer population than on elk. With 78 wolves and no antlerless deer harvest, we predicted the mule deer population could be 13-44% larger than without wolves. With 100 wolves and no antlerless deer harvest, the mule deer population was 0-36% larger than without wolves. After wolf recovery, our POP-II models suggested moose harvests would have to be reduced at least 50% to maintain moose numbers at the levels predicted when wolves were not present. Mule deer and moose population data are limited, and these wolf predation effects may be overestimated if population sizes or male-female ratios were underestimated in our population models. We recommend additional mule deer and moose population data be obtained.

Effects of introducing foxes and raccoons on herring gull colonies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kadlec, J.A.

1971-01-01

Red foxes (Vulpes fulva) and raccoons (Procyon lotor) released at colonies of herring gulls (Larus argentatus) on islands off the Massachusetts coast effectively eliminated the production of young gulls. Annual predator introductions for 2-4 years caused major reductions in colony size and occasionally total abandonment of the island as a colony site. Observations of the experimental islands for 2 years after cessation of predator introductions showed slow repopulation of the islands and lower breeding success than on control islands. The size of the regional population was reduced largely because of the movements of gulls off the experimental islands. The introduced predators are, in most cases, difficult to maintain on the islands; this restricts their utility in population management.

Healthy Aging: Is Smaller Better?

PubMed Central

Bartke, Andrzej

2014-01-01

A recent report of virtually complete protection from diabetes and cancer in a population of people with hereditary dwarfism revived interest in elucidating the relationships between growth, adult body size, age-related disease and longevity. In many species, smaller individuals outlive those that are larger and a similar relationship was shown in studies of various human populations. Adult body size is strongly dependent on the actions of growth hormone (GH) and the absence of GH or GH receptor in mice leads to a remarkable extension of longevity. Many mechanisms that may account for, or contribute to, this association have been identified. It is suggested that modest modifications of the diet at different ages may extend human healthspan and lifespan by reducing levels of hormones that stimulate growth. PMID:22261798

Strong fluctuations in aboveground population size do not limit genetic diversity in populations of an endangered biennial species.

PubMed

Münzbergová, Zuzana; Šurinová, Maria; Husáková, Iveta; Brabec, Jiří

2018-04-26

Assessing genetic diversity within populations of rare species and understanding its determinants are crucial for effective species protection. While a lot is known about the relationships between genetic diversity, fitness, and current population size, very few studies explored the effects of past population size. Knowledge of past population size may, however, improve our ability to predict future population fates. We studied Gentianella praecox subsp. bohemica, a biennial species with extensive seed bank. We tested the effect of current, past minimal and maximal population size, and harmonic mean of population sizes within the last 15 years on genetic diversity and fitness. Maximum population size over the last 15 years was the best predictor of expected heterozygosity of the populations and was significantly related to current population size and management. Plant fitness was significantly related to current as well as maximum population size and expected heterozygosity. The results suggested that information on past population size may improve our understanding of contemporary genetic diversity across populations. They demonstrated that despite the strong fluctuations in population size, large reductions in population size do not result in immediate loss of genetic diversity and reduction of fitness within the populations. This is likely due to the seed bank of the species serving as reservoir of the genetic diversity of the populations. From a conservation point of view, this suggests that the restoration of small populations of short-lived species with permanent seed bank is possible as these populations may still be genetically diverse.

Optimal city size and population density for the 21st century.

PubMed

Speare A; White, M J

1990-10-01

The thesis that large scale urban areas result in greater efficiency, reduced costs, and a better quality of life is reexamined. The environmental and social costs are measured for different scales of settlement. The desirability and perceived problems of a particular place are examined in relation to size of place. The consequences of population decline are considered. New York city is described as providing both opportunities in employment, shopping, and cultural activities as well as a high cost of living, crime, and pollution. The historical development of large cities in the US is described. Immigration has contributed to a greater concentration of population than would have otherwise have occurred. The spatial proximity of goods and services argument (agglomeration economies) has changed with advancements in technology such as roads, trucking, and electronic communication. There is no optimal city size. The overall effect of agglomeration can be assessed by determining whether the markets for goods and labor are adequate to maximize well-being and balance the negative and positive aspects of urbanization. The environmental costs of cities increase with size when air quality, water quality, sewage treatment, and hazardous waste disposal is considered. Smaller scale and lower density cities have the advantages of a lower concentration of pollutants. Also, mobilization for program support is easier with homogenous population. Lower population growth in large cities would contribute to a higher quality of life, since large metropolitan areas have a concentration of immigrants, younger age distributions, and minority groups with higher than average birth rates. The negative consequences of decline can be avoided if reduction of population in large cities takes place gradually. For example, poorer quality housing can be removed for open space. Cities should, however, still attract all classes of people with opportunities equally available.

Changes in Habitat Structure May Explain Decrease in Reintroduced Mohor Gazelle Population in the Guembeul Fauna Reserve, Senegal

PubMed Central

Moreno, Eulalia; Sane, Abibou; Benzal, Jesús; Ibáñez, Belén; Sanz-Zuasti, Joaquín; Espeso, Gerardo

2012-01-01

Simple Summary The reintroduction of plants and animals to the wild is an important technique to save endangered species from extinction. To perform post release monitoring is crucial to evaluate reintroduction outcomes. A Mohor gazelle reintroduction programme took place in Senegal in 1984. We attempt to explain why the size of the reintroduced gazelle population has diminished in recent years. We suggest that changes in habitat structure occurred over time and have very likely reduced the amount of suitable habitat for this species. Abstract Reintroduction is a widespread method for saving populations of endangered species from extinction. In spite of recent reviews, it is difficult to reach general conclusions about its value as a conservation tool, as authors are reluctant to publish unsuccessful results. The Mohor gazelle is a North African gazelle, extinct in the wild. Eight individuals were reintroduced in Senegal in 1984. The population grew progressively, albeit slowly, during the first 20 years after release, but then declined dramatically, until the population in 2009 was estimated at no more than 13–15 individuals. This study attempts to determine the likelihood of gazelle-habitat relationships to explain why the size of the gazelle population has diminished. Our results show that the Mohor gazelle in Guembeul is found in open habitats with less developed canopy where the grass is shorter, suggesting the possibility that changes in habitat structure have taken place during the time the gazelles have been in the Reserve, reducing the amount of suitable habitat. Reintroduction design usually concentrates on short-term factors that may affect survival of the released animals and their descendants (short-term achievement), while the key factors for assessing its success may be those that affect the long-term evolution of the population. PMID:26487026

Spatial variation in abiotic and biotic factors in a floodplain determine anuran body size and growth rate at metamorphosis.

PubMed

Indermaur, Lukas; Schmidt, Benedikt R; Tockner, Klement; Schaub, Michael

2010-07-01

Body size at metamorphosis is a critical trait in the life history of amphibians. Despite the wide-spread use of amphibians as experimental model organisms, there is a limited understanding of how multiple abiotic and biotic factors affect the variation in metamorphic traits under natural conditions. The aim of our study was to quantify the effects of abiotic and biotic factors on spatial variation in the body size of tadpoles and size at metamorphosis of the European common toad (Bufo b. spinosus). Our study population was distributed over the riverbed (active tract) and the fringing riparian forest of a natural floodplain. The riverbed had warm ponds with variable hydroperiod and few predators, whereas the forest had ponds with the opposite characteristics. Spatial variation in body size at metamorphosis was governed by the interactive effects of abiotic and biotic factors. The particular form of the interaction between water temperature and intraspecific tadpole density suggests that abiotic factors laid the foundation for biotic factors: intraspecific density decreased growth only at high temperature. Predation and intraspecific density jointly reduced metamorphic size. Interspecific density had a negligible affect on body size at metamorphosis, suggesting weak inter-anuran interactions in the larval stage. Population density at metamorphosis was about one to two orders of magnitudes higher in the riverbed ponds than in the forest ponds, mainly because of lower tadpole mortality. Based on our results, we conclude that ponds in the riverbed appear to play a pivotal role for the population because tadpole growth and survival is best in this habitat.

EFFECTIVENESS OF SELECTION IN REDUCING THE GENETIC LOAD IN POPULATIONS OF PEROMYSCUS POLIONOTUS DURING GENERATIONS OF INBREEDING.

PubMed

Lacy, Robert C; Ballou, Jonathan D

1998-06-01

It has been hypothesized that natural selection reduces the "genetic load" of deleterious alleles from populations that inbreed during bottlenecks, thereby ameliorating impacts of future inbreeding. We tested the efficiency with which natural selection purges deleterious alleles from three subspecies of Peromyscus polionotus during 10 generations of laboratory inbreeding by monitoring pairing success, litter size, viability, and growth in 3604 litters produced from 3058 pairs. In P. p. subgriseus, there was no reduction across generations in inbreeding depression in any of the fitness components. Strongly deleterious recessive alleles may have been removed previously during episodes of local inbreeding in the wild, and the residual genetic load in this population was not further reduced by selection in the lab. In P. p. rhoadsi, four of seven fitness components did show a reduction of the genetic load with continued inbreeding. The average reduction in the genetic load was as expected if inbreeding depression in this population is caused by highly deleterious recessive alleles that are efficiently removed by selection. For P. p. leucocephalus a population that experiences periodic bottlenecks in the wild, the effect of further inbreeding in the laboratory was to exacerbate rather than reduce the genetic load. Recessive deleterious alleles may have been removed from this population during repeated bottlenecks in the wild; the population may be close to a threshold level of heterozygosity below which fitness declines rapidly. Thus, the effects of selection on inbreeding depression varied substantially among populations, perhaps due to different histories of inbreeding and selection. © 1998 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Population characteristics and assessment of overfishing for an exploited paddlefish population in the lower Tennessee River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scholten, G.D.; Bettoli, P.W.

2005-01-01

Paddlefish Polyodon spathula (n = 576) were collected from Kentucky Lake, Kentucky-Tennessee, with experimental gill nets in 2003-2004 to assess population characteristics and the potential for commercial overfishing. Additional data were collected from 1,039 paddlefish caught by commercial gillnetters in this impoundment. Since the most recent study in 1991, size and age structure have been reduced and annual mortality has tripled. In the 1991 study, 37% of the fish collected were older than the maximum age we observed (age 11), and in 2003 annual mortality for paddlefish age 7 and older was high (A = 68%). Natural mortality is presumably low (<10%) for paddlefish; therefore, exploitation in recent years is high. Estimates of total annual mortality were negatively related to river discharge in the years preceding each estimate. The number of paddlefish harvested since 1999 was also negatively related to river discharge because gill nets cannot be easily deployed when discharge exceeds approximately 850 m3/s. Large females spawn annually because all females longer than 1,034 mm eye-fork length (EFL) were gravid. No mature females were protected by the current 864-mm minimum EFL limit. At a low natural mortality rate, higher size limits when exploitation was high (40-70%) increased simulated flesh yields by 10-20%. Even at low levels of exploitation (21%), spawning potential ratios (SPRs) under the current 864-mm minimum EFL size limit fell below 20%. If the size limit was raised to 1,016 mm EFL, the population could withstand up to 62% exploitation before the SPR falls below 20%. An analysis of annual mortality caps indicated that the best way to increase the average size of harvested fish is to increase the minimum size limit. Recruitment overfishing probably occurs during drought years; however, variation in river discharge has prevented the population from being exploited at unsustainable rates in the past. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2005.

Reducing Individual Variation for fMRI Studies in Children by Minimizing Template Related Errors

PubMed Central

Weng, Jian; Dong, Shanshan; He, Hongjian; Chen, Feiyan; Peng, Xiaogang

2015-01-01

Spatial normalization is an essential process for group comparisons in functional MRI studies. In practice, there is a risk of normalization errors particularly in studies involving children, seniors or diseased populations and in regions with high individual variation. One way to minimize normalization errors is to create a study-specific template based on a large sample size. However, studies with a large sample size are not always feasible, particularly for children studies. The performance of templates with a small sample size has not been evaluated in fMRI studies in children. In the current study, this issue was encountered in a working memory task with 29 children in two groups. We compared the performance of different templates: a study-specific template created by the experimental population, a Chinese children template and the widely used adult MNI template. We observed distinct differences in the right orbitofrontal region among the three templates in between-group comparisons. The study-specific template and the Chinese children template were more sensitive for the detection of between-group differences in the orbitofrontal cortex than the MNI template. Proper templates could effectively reduce individual variation. Further analysis revealed a correlation between the BOLD contrast size and the norm index of the affine transformation matrix, i.e., the SFN, which characterizes the difference between a template and a native image and differs significantly across subjects. Thereby, we proposed and tested another method to reduce individual variation that included the SFN as a covariate in group-wise statistics. This correction exhibits outstanding performance in enhancing detection power in group-level tests. A training effect of abacus-based mental calculation was also demonstrated, with significantly elevated activation in the right orbitofrontal region that correlated with behavioral response time across subjects in the trained group. PMID:26207985

Mapping of Vegetation with the Geoinformation System and Determining of Carrying Capacity of the Pre-Urals Steppe area for a Newly Establishing Population of the Przewalski Horse Equus ferus przewalskii at the Orenburg State Nature Reserve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fedorov, N. I.; Mikhailenko, O. I.; Zharkikh, T. L.; Bakirova, R. T.

2018-01-01

Mapping of the vegetation (1:25000) of the Pre-Urals Steppe area at the Orenburg State Nature Reserve was completed in 2016. A map created with the geoinformation system contains 1931 simple and complex polygons for 25 types of vegetation. In a drought year, the average stock of palatable vegetation of the whole area is estimated at 8380 tons dry weight. The estimation is based on the size of areas covered by different types of vegetation, their grass production, the correction coefficients for decreasing of pasture forage stocks in winter and decreasing of production of grass communities in dry years. Based on pasture forage stocks the area could tolerate the maximum population size of 1769 individuals of the Przewalski horse, their average density could be 0.11 horse per ha. Yet, as watering places for animals are limited in Pre-Urals Steppe, grazing pressures on the vegetation next to the water sources may increase in dry years. That is why the above-mentioned calculated maximum population size and density must be reduced at least by half until some additional watering places are established and monitoring of the grazing effect on the vegetation next to the places is carried out regularly. Thus, the maximum size of the population is estimated at 800 to 900 individuals, which is almost 1.5 times more than necessary to establish a self-sustained population of the Przewalski horse.

Shape variation in the human pelvis and limb skeleton: Implications for obstetric adaptation.

PubMed

Kurki, Helen K; Decrausaz, Sarah-Louise

2016-04-01

Under the obstetrical dilemma (OD) hypothesis, selection acts on the human female pelvis to ensure a sufficiently sized obstetric canal for birthing a large-brained, broad shouldered neonate, while bipedal locomotion selects for a narrower and smaller pelvis. Despite this female-specific stabilizing selection, variability of linear dimensions of the pelvic canal and overall size are not reduced in females, suggesting shape may instead be variable among females of a population. Female canal shape has been shown to vary among populations, while male canal shape does not. Within this context, we examine within-population canal shape variation in comparison with that of noncanal aspects of the pelvis and the limbs. Nine skeletal samples (total female n = 101, male n = 117) representing diverse body sizes and shapes were included. Principal components analysis was applied to size-adjusted variables of each skeletal region. A multivariate variance was calculated using the weighted PC scores for all components in each model and F-ratios used to assess differences in within-population variances between sexes and skeletal regions. Within both sexes, multivariate canal shape variance is significantly greater than noncanal pelvis and limb variances, while limb variance is greater than noncanal pelvis variance in some populations. Multivariate shape variation is not consistently different between the sexes in any of the skeletal regions. Diverse selective pressures, including obstetrics, locomotion, load carrying, and others may act on canal shape, as well as genetic drift and plasticity, thus increasing variation in morphospace while protecting obstetric sufficiency. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Time and expected value of sample information wait for no patient.

PubMed

Eckermann, Simon; Willan, Andrew R

2008-01-01

The expected value of sample information (EVSI) from prospective trials has previously been modeled as the product of EVSI per patient, and the number of patients across the relevant time horizon less those "used up" in trials. However, this implicitly assumes the eligible patient population to which information from a trial can be applied across a time horizon are independent of time for trial accrual, follow-up and analysis. This article demonstrates that in calculating the EVSI of a trial, the number of patients who benefit from trial information should be reduced by those treated outside as well as within the trial over the time until trial evidence is updated, including time for accrual, follow-up and analysis. Accounting for time is shown to reduce the eligible patient population: 1) independent of the size of trial in allowing for time of follow-up and analysis, and 2) dependent on the size of trial for time of accrual, where the patient accrual rate is less than incidence. Consequently, the EVSI and expected net gain (ENG) at any given trial size are shown to be lower when accounting for time, with lower ENG reinforced in the case of trials undertaken while delaying decisions by additional opportunity costs of time. Appropriately accounting for time reduces the EVSI of trial design and increase opportunity costs of trials undertaken with delay, leading to lower likelihood of trialing being optimal and smaller trial designs where optimal.

Hybrid vigor for the invasive exotic Brazilian peppertree (Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi., Anacardiaceae) in Florida

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

How can successful invaders overcome reduced genetic variation via small founder population sizes to persist, thrive, and successfully adapt to a new set of environmental conditions? An expanding body of literature posits hybridization, both inter- and intraspecific, as a driver of the evolution of...

Short amplexus duration in a territorial anuran: a possible adaptation in response to male-male competition.

PubMed

Chuang, Ming-Feng; Bee, Mark A; Kam, Yeong-Choy

2013-01-01

Mating duration is a reproductive behaviour that can impact fertilization efficiency and offspring number. Previous studies of factors influencing the evolution of mating duration have focused on the potential role of internal sperm competition as an underlying source of selection; most of these studies have been on invertebrates. For vertebrates with external fertilization, such as fishes and frogs, the sources of selection acting on mating duration remain largely unknown due, in part, to the difficulty of observing complete mating behaviours in natural conditions. In this field study, we monitored breeding activity in a population of the territorial olive frog, Rana adenopleura, to identify factors that affect the duration of amplexus. Compared with most other frogs, amplexus was short, lasting less than 11 min on average, which included about 8 min of pre-oviposition activity followed by 3 min of oviposition. We evaluated the relationship between amplexus duration and seven variables: male body size, male condition, operational sex ratio (OSR), population size, clutch size, territory size, and the coverage of submerged vegetation in a male's territory. We also investigated the influence of these same variables, along with amplexus duration, on fertilization rate. Amplexus duration was positively related with clutch size and the degree of male-bias in the nightly OSR. Fertilization rate was directly related to male body size and inversely related to amplexus duration. Agonistic interactions between males in amplexus and intruding, unpaired males were frequent. These interactions often resulted in mating failure, prolonged amplexus duration, and reduced fertilization rates. Together, the pattern of our findings indicates short amplexus duration in this species may be an adaptive reproductive strategy whereby males attempt to reduce the risks of mating and fertilization failures and territory loss resulting from male-male competition.

Ecological and genetic impact of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami on intertidal mud snails

PubMed Central

Miura, Osamu; Kanaya, Gen; Nakai, Shizuko; Itoh, Hajime; Chiba, Satoshi; Makino, Wataru; Nishimura, Tomohiro; Kojima, Shigeaki; Urabe, Jotaro

2017-01-01

Natural disturbances often destroy local populations and can considerably affect the genetic properties of these populations. The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami greatly damaged local populations of various coastal organisms, including the mud snail Batillaria attramentaria, which was an abundant macroinvertebrate on the tidal flats in the Tohoku region. To evaluate the impact of the tsunami on the ecology and population genetic properties of these snails, we monitored the density, shell size, and microsatellite DNA variation of B. attramentaria for more than ten years (2005–2015) throughout the disturbance event. We found that the density of snails declined immediately after the tsunami. Bayesian inference of the genetically effective population size (Ne) demonstrated that the Ne declined by 60–99% at the study sites exposed to the tsunami. However, we found that their genetic diversity was not significantly reduced after the tsunami. The maintenance of genetic diversity is essential for long-term survival of local populations, and thus, the observed genetic robustness could play a key role in the persistence of snail populations in this region which has been devastated by similar tsunamis every 500–800 years. Our findings have significant implications for understanding the sustainability of populations damaged by natural disturbances. PMID:28281698

Genetic rescue in an inbred Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) population.

PubMed

Hasselgren, Malin; Angerbjörn, Anders; Eide, Nina E; Erlandsson, Rasmus; Flagstad, Øystein; Landa, Arild; Wallén, Johan; Norén, Karin

2018-03-28

Isolation of small populations can reduce fitness through inbreeding depression and impede population growth. Outcrossing with only a few unrelated individuals can increase demographic and genetic viability substantially, but few studies have documented such genetic rescue in natural mammal populations. We investigate the effects of immigration in a subpopulation of the endangered Scandinavian arctic fox ( Vulpes lagopus ), founded by six individuals and isolated for 9 years at an extremely small population size. Based on a long-term pedigree (105 litters, 543 individuals) combined with individual fitness traits, we found evidence for genetic rescue. Natural immigration and gene flow of three outbred males in 2010 resulted in a reduction in population average inbreeding coefficient ( f ), from 0.14 to 0.08 within 5 years. Genetic rescue was further supported by 1.9 times higher juvenile survival and 1.3 times higher breeding success in immigrant first-generation offspring compared with inbred offspring. Five years after immigration, the population had more than doubled in size and allelic richness increased by 41%. This is one of few studies that has documented genetic rescue in a natural mammal population suffering from inbreeding depression and contributes to a growing body of data demonstrating the vital connection between genetics and individual fitness. © 2018 The Author(s).

Genetic variation assessed with microsatellites in mass selection lines of the Pacific oyster ( Crassostrea gigas) in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xubo; Li, Qi; Yu, Hong; Kong, Lingfeng

2016-12-01

Four successive mass selection lines of the Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, selected for faster growth in breeding programs in China were examined at ten polymorphic microsatellite loci to assess the level of allelic diversity and estimate the effective population size. These data were compared with those of their base population. The results showed that the genetic variation of the four generations were maintained at high levels with an average allelic richness of 18.8-20.6, and a mean expected heterozygosity of 0.902-0.921. They were not reduced compared with those of their base population. Estimated effective population sizes based on temporal variances in microsatellite frequencies were smaller to that of sex ratio-corrected broodstock count estimates. Using a relatively large number of broodstock and keeping an equal sex ratio in the broodstock each generation may have contributed to retaining the original genetic diversity and maintaining relatively large effective population size. The results obtained in this study showed that the genetic variation was not affected greatly by mass selection progress and high genetic variation still existed in the mass selection lines, suggesting that there is still potential for increasing the gains in future generations of C. gigas. The present study provided important information for future genetic improvement by selective breeding, and for the design of suitable management guidelines for genetic breeding of C. gigas.

Predator cannibalism can intensify negative impacts on heterospecific prey.

PubMed

Takatsu, Kunio; Kishida, Osamu

2015-07-01

Although natural populations consist of individuals with different traits, and the degree of phenotypic variation varies among populations, the impact of phenotypic variation on ecological interactions has received little attention, because traditional approaches to community ecology assume homogeneity of individuals within a population. Stage structure, which is a common way of generating size and developmental variation within predator populations, can drive cannibalistic interactions, which can affect the strength of predatory effects on the predator's heterospecific prey. Studies have shown that predator cannibalism weakens predatory effects on heterospecific prey by reducing the size of the predator population and by inducing less feeding activity of noncannibal predators. We predict, however, that predator cannibalism, by promoting rapid growth of the cannibals, can also intensify predation pressure on heterospecific prey, because large predators have large resource requirements and may utilize a wider variety of prey species. To test this hypothesis, we conducted an experiment in which we created carnivorous salamander (Hynobius retardatus) populations with different stage structures by manipulating the salamander's hatch timing (i.e., populations with large or small variation in the timing of hatching), and explored the resultant impacts on the abundance, behavior, morphology, and life history of the salamander's large heterospecific prey, Rana pirica frog tadpoles. Cannibalism was rare in salamander populations having small hatch-timing variation, but was frequent in those having large hatch-timing variation. Thus, giant salamander cannibals occurred only in the latter. We clearly showed that salamander giants exerted strong predation pressure on frog tadpoles, which induced large behavioral and morphological defenses in the tadpoles and caused them to metamorphose late at large size. Hence, predator cannibalism arising from large variation in the timing of hatching can strengthen predatory effects on heterospecific prey and can have impacts on various, traits of both predator and prey. Because animals commonly broaden their diet as they grow, such negative impacts of predator cannibalism on the heterospecific prey may be common in interactions between predators and prey species of similar size.

Pollination limitation to reproductive success in the Missouri evening primrose, Oenothera macrocarpa (Onagraceae).

PubMed

Moody-Weis, J M; Heywood, J S

2001-09-01

Habitat fragmentation may result in plant populations that are less attractive to pollinators and thus susceptible to reduced reproductive output due to pollination limitation. Pollination limitation was investigated in three Missouri populations of Oenothera macrocarpa, a hawk-moth-pollinated, perennial herb. The populations represented extremes in size and habitat quality. Following supplemental pollination, mean fertilization success (proportion of ovules fertilized) across populations increased from 24.3 to 44.8% and mean seed set (proportion of ovules that matured into seed) increased from 14.7 to 27.9%. These increases were statistically significant in two of the three populations. Failure to achieve 100% fertilization and seed set following supplementation indicates that other factors, in addition to pollination, were limiting to female reproductive success. Fruit set was pollination limited in only one population. Fruits matured with as few as one seed, suggesting that fruit set was not resource limited. The degree of pollination limitation was greatest in the most disturbed population. The population located in the highest-quality habitat was not significantly pollination limited. This suggests that pollination limitation is occurring, at least in part, because of reduced pollinator activity in degraded habitats.

Reproductive Declines in an Endangered Seabird: Cause for Concern or Signs of Conservation Success?

PubMed Central

Schuetz, Justin

2011-01-01

Collection and analysis of demographic data play a critical role in monitoring and management of endangered taxa. I analyzed long-term clutch size and fledgling productivity data for California least tern (Sternula antillarum browni), a federally endangered subspecies that has recently become a candidate for down-listing. While the breeding population grew from approximately 1,253 to 7,241 pairs (578%) during the study period (1988–2009) both clutch size and fledgling productivity declined. Clutch size decreased by approximately 0.27 eggs (14%) from 1990–2004 then showed a moderate increase of 0.11 eggs from 2004–2009. Estimates of fledgling productivity showed a similar pattern of decline and moderate increase even after controlling for clutch size. Sea surface temperature anomalies, an index of El Niño-Southern Oscillation activity, did not influence clutch size but were associated with fledgling productivity through a non-linear relationship. Both clutch size and fledgling productivity increased with latitude, potentially indicating a gradient of life-history trade-offs. Random site effects explained little of the overall variation in clutch size (3%) or fledgling productivity (<1%) suggesting that site characteristics beyond those associated with latitude had little bearing on either measure of reproduction. Despite intensive monitoring and management, causes of variation in key demographic parameters remain poorly understood. Long-term declines in clutch size and fledgling productivity may reflect: 1) reduced food availability, 2) increased density-dependent competition, and/or 3) age-dependent reproduction coupled with a shifting population age-structure. Until the mechanisms shaping demographic parameters and population change are better understood, the success of past management and the probability of ongoing recovery will remain difficult to characterize. PMID:21559287

Comparative Analysis of Genome Diversity in Bullmastiff Dogs

PubMed Central

Mortlock, Sally-Anne; Khatkar, Mehar S.; Williamson, Peter

2016-01-01

Management and preservation of genomic diversity in dog breeds is a major objective for maintaining health. The present study was undertaken to characterise genomic diversity in Bullmastiff dogs using both genealogical and molecular analysis. Genealogical analysis of diversity was conducted using a database consisting of 16,378 Bullmastiff pedigrees from year 1980 to 2013. Additionally, a total of 188 Bullmastiff dogs were genotyped using the 170,000 SNP Illumina CanineHD Beadchip. Genealogical parameters revealed a mean inbreeding coefficient of 0.047; 142 total founders (f); an effective number of founders (fe) of 79; an effective number of ancestors (fa) of 62; and an effective population size of the reference population of 41. Genetic diversity and the degree of genome-wide homogeneity within the breed were also investigated using molecular data. Multiple-locus heterozygosity (MLH) was equal to 0.206; runs of homozygosity (ROH) as proportion of the genome, averaged 16.44%; effective population size was 29.1, with an average inbreeding coefficient of 0.035, all estimated using SNP Data. Fine-scale population structure was analysed using NETVIEW, a population analysis pipeline. Visualisation of the high definition network captured relationships among individuals within and between subpopulations. Effects of unequal founder use, and ancestral inbreeding and selection, were evident. While current levels of Bullmastiff heterozygosity, inbreeding and homozygosity are not unusual, a relatively small effective population size indicates that a breeding strategy to reduce the inbreeding rate may be beneficial. PMID:26824579

Translating effects of inbreeding depression on component vital rates to overall population growth in endangered bighorn sheep.

PubMed

Johnson, Heather E; Mills, L Scott; Wehausen, John D; Stephenson, Thomas R; Luikart, Gordon

2011-12-01

Evidence of inbreeding depression is commonly detected from the fitness traits of animals, yet its effects on population growth rates of endangered species are rarely assessed. We examined whether inbreeding depression was affecting Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis sierrae), a subspecies listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Our objectives were to characterize genetic variation in this subspecies; test whether inbreeding depression affects bighorn sheep vital rates (adult survival and female fecundity); evaluate whether inbreeding depression may limit subspecies recovery; and examine the potential for genetic management to increase population growth rates. Genetic variation in 4 populations of Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep was among the lowest reported for any wild bighorn sheep population, and our results suggest that inbreeding depression has reduced adult female fecundity. Despite this population sizes and growth rates predicted from matrix-based projection models demonstrated that inbreeding depression would not substantially inhibit the recovery of Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep populations in the next approximately 8 bighorn sheep generations (48 years). Furthermore, simulations of genetic rescue within the subspecies did not suggest that such activities would appreciably increase population sizes or growth rates during the period we modeled (10 bighorn sheep generations, 60 years). Only simulations that augmented the Mono Basin population with genetic variation from other subspecies, which is not currently a management option, predicted significant increases in population size. Although we recommend that recovery activities should minimize future losses of genetic variation, genetic effects within these endangered populations-either negative (inbreeding depression) or positive (within subspecies genetic rescue)-appear unlikely to dramatically compromise or stimulate short-term conservation efforts. The distinction between detecting the effects of inbreeding depression on a component vital rate (e.g., fecundity) and the effects of inbreeding depression on population growth underscores the importance of quantifying inbreeding costs relative to population dynamics to effectively manage endangered populations. ©2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

An evaluation of density-dependent and density-independent influences on population growth rates in Weddell seals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rotella, J.J.; Link, W.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Hadley, G.L.; Garrott, R.A.; Proffitt, K.M.

2009-01-01

Much of the existing literature that evaluates the roles of density-dependent and density-independent factors on population dynamics has been called into question in recent years because measurement errors were not properly dealt with in analyses. Using state-space models to account for measurement errors, we evaluated a set of competing models for a 22-year time series of mark-resight estimates of abundance for a breeding population of female Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) studied in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We tested for evidence of direct density dependence in growth rates and evaluated whether equilibrium population size was related to seasonal sea-ice extent and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We found strong evidence of negative density dependence in annual growth rates for a population whose estimated size ranged from 438 to 623 females during the study. Based on Bayes factors, a density-dependence-only model was favored over models that also included en! vironmental covariates. According to the favored model, the population had a stationary distribution with a mean of 497 females (SD = 60.5), an expected growth rate of 1.10 (95% credible interval 1.08-1.15) when population size was 441 females, and a rate of 0.90 (95% credible interval 0.87-0.93) for a population of 553 females. A model including effects of SOI did receive some support and indicated a positive relationship between SOI and population size. However, effects of SOI were not large, and including the effect did not greatly reduce our estimate of process variation. We speculate that direct density dependence occurred because rates of adult survival, breeding, and temporary emigration were affected by limitations on per capita food resources and space for parturition and pup-rearing. To improve understanding of the relative roles of various demographic components and their associated vital rates to population growth rate, mark-recapture methods can be applied that incorporate both environmental covariates and the seal abundance estimates that were developed here. An improved understanding of why vital rates change with changing population abundance will only come as we develop a better understanding of the processes affecting marine food resources in the Southern Ocean.

Stochastic Switching Induced Adaptation in a Starved Escherichia coli Population

PubMed Central

Ito, Yoichiro; Ying, Bei-Wen; Yomo, Tetsuya

2011-01-01

Population adaptation can be determined by stochastic switching in living cells. To examine how stochastic switching contributes to the fate decision for a population under severe stress, we constructed an Escherichia coli strain crucially dependent on the expression of a rewired gene. The gene essential for tryptophan biosynthesis, trpC, was removed from the native regulatory unit, the Trp operon, and placed under the extraneous control of the lactose utilisation network. Bistability of the network provided the cells two discrete phenotypes: the induced and suppressed level of trpC. The two phenotypes permitted the cells to grow or not, respectively, under conditions of tryptophan depletion. We found that stochastic switching between the two states allowed the initially suppressed cells to form a new population with induced trpC in response to tryptophan starvation. However, the frequency of the transition from suppressed to induced state dropped off dramatically in the starved population, in comparison to that in the nourished population. This reduced switching rate was compensated by increasing the initial population size, which probably provided the cell population more chances to wait for the rarely appearing fit cells from the unfit cells. Taken together, adaptation of a starved bacterial population because of stochasticity in the gene rewired from the ancient regulon was experimentally confirmed, and the nutritional status and the population size played a great role in stochastic adaptation. PMID:21931628

Relations between conspecific density and effects of ultraviolet-b radiation on tadpole size in the striped marsh frog.

PubMed

Mitchell, Toby; Alton, Lesley A; White, Craig R; Franklin, Craig E

2012-12-01

Global increases in ultraviolet-B radiation (UVBR) associated with stratospheric ozone depletion are potentially contributing to the decline of numerous amphibian species around the world. Exposure to UVBR alone reduces survival and induces a range of sublethal effects in embryonic and larval amphibians. When additional environmental stressors are present, UVBR can have compounding negative effects. Thus, examination of the effects of UVBR in the absence of other stressors may substantially underestimate its potential to affect amphibians in natural habitats. We examined the independent and interactive effects of increased UVBR and high conspecific density would have embryonic and larval striped marsh frogs (Limnodynastes peronii). We exposed individuals to a factorial combination of low and high UVBR levels and low, medium, and high densities of striped marsh frog tadpoles. The response variables were time to hatching, hatching success, posthatch survival, burst-swimming performance of tadpoles (maximum instantaneous swim speed following an escape response), and size and morphology of tadpoles. Consistent with results of previous studies, we found that exposure to UVBR alone increased the time to hatching of embryos and reduced the burst-swimming performance and size of tadpoles. Similarly, increasing conspecific density increased the time to hatching of embryos and reduced the size of tadpoles, but had no effect on burst-swimming performance. The negative effect of UVBR on tadpole size was not apparent at high densities of tadpoles. This result suggests that tadpoles living at higher densities may invest relatively less energy in growth and thus have more energy to repair UVBR-induced damage. Lower densities of conspecifics increased the negative effects of UVBR on developing amphibians. Thus, low-density populations, which may include declining populations, may be particularly susceptible to the detrimental effects of increased UVBR and thus may be driven toward extinction faster than might be expected on the basis of results from single-factor studies. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Effects of geodemographic profiles on healthcare service utilization: a case study on cardiac care in Ontario, Canada

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Although literature has associated geodemographic factors with healthcare service utilization, little is known about how these factors — such as population size, age profile, service accessibility, and educational profile — interact to influence service utilization. This study fills this gap in the literature by examining both the direct and the moderating effects of geodemographic profiles on the utilization of cardiac surgery services. Methods We aggregated secondary data obtained from Statistics Canada and Cardiac Care Network of Ontario to derive the geodemographic profiles of Ontario and the corresponding cardiac surgery service utilization in the years between 2004 and 2007. We conducted a two-step test using Partial Least Squares-based structural equation modeling to investigate the relationships between geodemographic profiles and healthcare service utilization. Results Population size and age profile have direct positive effects on service utilization (β=0.737, p<0.01; β=0.284, p<0.01, respectively), whereas service accessibility is negatively associated with service utilization (β=−0.210, p<0.01). Service accessibility decreases the effect of population size on service utilization (β=−0.606, p<0.01), and educational profile weakens the effects of population size and age profile on service utilization (β=−0.595, p<0.01; β=−0.286, p<0.01, respectively). Conclusions In this study, we found that (1) service accessibility has a moderating effect on the relationship between population size and service utilization, and (2) educational profile has moderating effects on both the relationship between population size and service utilization, and the relationship between age profile and service utilization. Our findings suggest that reducing regional disparities in healthcare service utilization should take into account the interaction of geodemographic factors such as service accessibility and education. In addition, the allocation of resources for a particular healthcare service in one area should consider the geographic distribution of the same services in neighboring areas, as patients may be willing to utilize these services in areas not far from where they reside. PMID:23816201

Impacts of Insect Herbivores on Plant Populations.

PubMed

Myers, Judith H; Sarfraz, Rana M

2017-01-31

Apparent feeding damage by insects on plants is often slight. Thus, the influences of insect herbivores on plant populations are likely minor. The role of insects on host-plant populations can be elucidated via several methods: stage-structured life tables of plant populations manipulated by herbivore exclusion and seed-addition experiments, tests of the enemy release hypothesis, studies of the effects of accidentally and intentionally introduced insect herbivores, and observations of the impacts of insect species that show outbreak population dynamics. These approaches demonstrate that some, but not all, insect herbivores influence plant population densities. At times, insect-feeding damage kills plants, but more often, it reduces plant size, growth, and seed production. Plant populations for which seed germination is site limited will not respond at the population level to reduced seed production. Insect herbivores can influence rare plant species and need to be considered in conservation programs. Alterations due to climate change in the distributions of insect herbivores indicate the possibility of new influences on host plants. Long-term studies are required to show if density-related insect behavior stabilizes plant populations or if environmental variation drives most temporal fluctuations in plant densities. Finally, insects can influence plant populations and communities through changing the diversity of nonhost species, modifying nutrient fluxes, and rejuvenating over mature forests.

Uncertainty in Population Estimates for Endangered Animals and Improving the Recovery Process

PubMed Central

Haines, Aaron M.; Zak, Matthew; Hammond, Katie; Scott, J. Michael; Goble, Dale D.; Rachlow, Janet L.

2013-01-01

Simple Summary The objective of our study was to evaluate the mention of uncertainty (i.e., variance) associated with population size estimates within U.S. recovery plans for endangered animals. To do this we reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species. We found that more recent recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty. We recommend that updated recovery plans combine uncertainty of population size estimates with a minimum detectable difference to aid in successful recovery. Abstract United States recovery plans contain biological information for a species listed under the Endangered Species Act and specify recovery criteria to provide basis for species recovery. The objective of our study was to evaluate whether recovery plans provide uncertainty (e.g., variance) with estimates of population size. We reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species to record the following data: (1) if a current population size was given, (2) if a measure of uncertainty or variance was associated with current estimates of population size and (3) if population size was stipulated for recovery. We found that 59% of completed recovery plans specified a current population size, 14.5% specified a variance for the current population size estimate and 43% specified population size as a recovery criterion. More recent recovery plans reported more estimates of current population size, uncertainty and population size as a recovery criterion. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty compared to reptiles and amphibians. We suggest the use of calculating minimum detectable differences to improve confidence when delisting endangered animals and we identified incentives for individuals to get involved in recovery planning to improve access to quantitative data. PMID:26479531

Impacts of ocean acidification on early life-history stages and settlement of the coral-eating sea star Acanthaster planci.

PubMed

Uthicke, Sven; Pecorino, Danilo; Albright, Rebecca; Negri, Andrew Peter; Cantin, Neal; Liddy, Michelle; Dworjanyn, Symon; Kamya, Pamela; Byrne, Maria; Lamare, Miles

2013-01-01

Coral reefs are marine biodiversity hotspots, but their existence is threatened by global change and local pressures such as land-runoff and overfishing. Population explosions of coral-eating crown of thorns sea stars (COTS) are a major contributor to recent decline in coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef. Here, we investigate how projected near-future ocean acidification (OA) conditions can affect early life history stages of COTS, by investigating important milestones including sperm motility, fertilisation rates, and larval development and settlement. OA (increased pCO2 to 900-1200 µatm pCO2) significantly reduced sperm motility and, to a lesser extent, velocity, which strongly reduced fertilization rates at environmentally relevant sperm concentrations. Normal development of 10 d old larvae was significantly lower under elevated pCO2 but larval size was not significantly different between treatments. Settlement of COTS larvae was significantly reduced on crustose coralline algae (known settlement inducers of COTS) that had been exposed to OA conditions for 85 d prior to settlement assays. Effect size analyses illustrated that reduced settlement may be the largest bottleneck for overall juvenile production. Results indicate that reductions in fertilisation and settlement success alone would reduce COTS population replenishment by over 50%. However, it is unlikely that this effect is sufficient to provide respite for corals from other negative anthropogenic impacts and direct stress from OA and warming on corals.

A universal approximation to grain size from images of non-cohesive sediment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buscombe, D.; Rubin, D.M.; Warrick, J.A.

2010-01-01

The two-dimensional spectral decomposition of an image of sediment provides a direct statistical estimate, grid-by-number style, of the mean of all intermediate axes of all single particles within the image. We develop and test this new method which, unlike existing techniques, requires neither image processing algorithms for detection and measurement of individual grains, nor calibration. The only information required of the operator is the spatial resolution of the image. The method is tested with images of bed sediment from nine different sedimentary environments (five beaches, three rivers, and one continental shelf), across the range 0.1 mm to 150 mm, taken in air and underwater. Each population was photographed using a different camera and lighting conditions. We term it a “universal approximation” because it has produced accurate estimates for all populations we have tested it with, without calibration. We use three approaches (theory, computational experiments, and physical experiments) to both understand and explore the sensitivities and limits of this new method. Based on 443 samples, the root-mean-squared (RMS) error between size estimates from the new method and known mean grain size (obtained from point counts on the image) was found to be ±≈16%, with a 95% probability of estimates within ±31% of the true mean grain size (measured in a linear scale). The RMS error reduces to ≈11%, with a 95% probability of estimates within ±20% of the true mean grain size if point counts from a few images are used to correct bias for a specific population of sediment images. It thus appears it is transferable between sedimentary populations with different grain size, but factors such as particle shape and packing may introduce bias which may need to be calibrated for. For the first time, an attempt has been made to mathematically relate the spatial distribution of pixel intensity within the image of sediment to the grain size.

A universal approximation of grain size from images of noncohesive sediment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buscombe, D.; Rubin, D. M.; Warrick, J. A.

2010-06-01

The two-dimensional spectral decomposition of an image of sediment provides a direct statistical estimate, grid-by-number style, of the mean of all intermediate axes of all single particles within the image. We develop and test this new method which, unlike existing techniques, requires neither image processing algorithms for detection and measurement of individual grains, nor calibration. The only information required of the operator is the spatial resolution of the image. The method is tested with images of bed sediment from nine different sedimentary environments (five beaches, three rivers, and one continental shelf), across the range 0.1 mm to 150 mm, taken in air and underwater. Each population was photographed using a different camera and lighting conditions. We term it a "universal approximation" because it has produced accurate estimates for all populations we have tested it with, without calibration. We use three approaches (theory, computational experiments, and physical experiments) to both understand and explore the sensitivities and limits of this new method. Based on 443 samples, the root-mean-squared (RMS) error between size estimates from the new method and known mean grain size (obtained from point counts on the image) was found to be ±≈16%, with a 95% probability of estimates within ±31% of the true mean grain size (measured in a linear scale). The RMS error reduces to ≈11%, with a 95% probability of estimates within ±20% of the true mean grain size if point counts from a few images are used to correct bias for a specific population of sediment images. It thus appears it is transferable between sedimentary populations with different grain size, but factors such as particle shape and packing may introduce bias which may need to be calibrated for. For the first time, an attempt has been made to mathematically relate the spatial distribution of pixel intensity within the image of sediment to the grain size.

Solving the puzzle of yeast survival in ephemeral nectar systems: exponential growth is not enough.

PubMed

Hausmann, Sebastian L; Tietjen, Britta; Rillig, Matthias C

2017-12-01

Flower nectar is a sugar-rich ephemeral habitat for microorganisms. Nectar-borne yeasts are part of the microbial community and can affect pollination by changing nectar chemistry, attractiveness to pollinators or flower temperature if yeast population densities are high. Pollinators act as dispersal agents in this system; however, pollination events lead potentially to shrinking nectar yeast populations. We here examine how sufficiently high cell densities of nectar yeast can develop in a flower. In laboratory experiments, we determined the remaining fraction of nectar yeast cells after nectar removal, and used honeybees to determine the number of transmitted yeast cells from one flower to the next. The results of these experiments directly fed into a simulation model providing an insight into movement and colonization ecology of nectar yeasts. We found that cell densities only reached an ecologically relevant size for an intermediate pollination probability. Too few pollination events reduce yeast inoculation rate and too many reduce yeast population size strongly. In addition, nectar yeasts need a trait combination of at least an intermediate growth rate and an intermediate remaining fraction to compensate for highly frequent decimations. Our results can be used to predict nectar yeast dispersal, growth and consequently their ecological effects. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Effects of management and climate on elk brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cross, P.C.; Edwards, W.H.; Scurlock, B.M.; Maichak, E.J.; Rogerson, J.D.

2007-01-01

Every winter, government agencies feed ???6000 metric tons (6 ?? 106 kg) of hay to elk in the southern Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) to limit transmission of Brucella abortus, the causative agent of brucellosis, from elk to cattle. Supplemental feeding, however, is likely to increase the transmission of brucellosis in elk, and may be affected by climatic factors, such as snowpack. We assessed these possibilities using snowpack and feeding data from 1952 to 2006 and disease testing data from 1993 to 2006. Brucellosis seroprevalence was strongly correlated with the timing of the feeding season. Longer feeding seasons were associated with higher seroprevalence, but elk population size and density had only minor effects. In other words, the duration of host aggregation and whether it coincided with peak transmission periods was more important than just the host population size. Accurate modeling of disease transmission depends upon incorporating information on how host contact rates fluctuate over time relative to peak transmission periods. We also found that supplemental feeding seasons lasted longer during years with deeper snowpack. Therefore, milder winters and/or management strategies that reduce the length of the feeding season may reduce the seroprevalence of brucellosis in the elk populations of the southern GYE. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Spatial extent of analysis influences observed patterns of population genetic structure in a widespread darter species (Percidae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Argentina, Jane E.; Angermeier, Paul L.; Hallerman, Eric M.; Welsh, Stuart A.

2018-01-01

Connectivity among stream fish populations allows for exchange of genetic material and helps maintain genetic diversity, adaptive potential and population stability over time. Changes in species demographics and population connectivity have the potential to permanently alter the genetic patterns of stream fish, although these changes through space and time are variable and understudied in small‐bodied freshwater fish.As a spatially widespread, common species of benthic freshwater fish, the variegate darter (Etheostoma variatum) is a model species for documenting how patterns of genetic structure and diversity respond to increasing isolation due to large dams and how scale of study may shape our understanding of these patterns. We sampled variegate darters from 34 sites across their range in the North American Ohio River basin and examined how patterns of genetic structure and diversity within and between populations responded to historical population changes and dams within and between populations.Spatial scale and configuration of genetic structure varied across the eight identified populations, from tributaries within a watershed, to a single watershed, to multiple watersheds that encompass Ohio River mainstem habitats. This multiwatershed pattern of population structuring suggests genetic dispersal across large distances was and may continue to be common, although some populations remain isolated despite no apparent structural dispersal barriers. Populations with low effective population sizes and evidence of past population bottlenecks showed low allelic richness, but diversity patterns were not related to watershed size, a surrogate for habitat availability. Pairwise genetic differentiation (FST) increased with fluvial distance and was related to both historic and contemporary processes. Genetic diversity changes were influenced by underlying population size and stability, and while instream barriers were not strong determinants of genetic structuring or loss of genetic diversity, they reduce population connectivity and may impact long‐term population persistence.The broad spatial scale of this study demonstrated the large spatial extent of some variegate darter populations and indicated that dispersal is more extensive than expected given the movement patterns typically observed for small‐bodied, benthic fish. Dam impacts depended on underlying population size and stability, with larger populations more resilient to genetic drift and allelic richness loss than smaller populations.Other darters that inhabit large river habitats may show similar patterns in landscape‐scale studies, and large river barriers may impact populations of small‐bodied fish more than previously expected. Estimation of dispersal rates and behaviours is critical to conservation of imperilled riverine species such as darters.

Primary care and health inequality: Difference-in-difference study comparing England and Ontario.

PubMed

Cookson, Richard; Mondor, Luke; Asaria, Miqdad; Kringos, Dionne S; Klazinga, Niek S; Wodchis, Walter P

2017-01-01

It is not known whether equity-oriented primary care investment that seeks to scale up the delivery of effective care in disadvantaged communities can reduce health inequality within high-income settings that have pre-existing universal primary care systems. We provide some non-randomised controlled evidence by comparing health inequality trends between two similar jurisdictions-one of which implemented equity-oriented primary care investment in the mid-to-late 2000s as part of a cross-government strategy for reducing health inequality (England), and one which invested in primary care without any explicit equity objective (Ontario, Canada). We analysed whole-population data on 32,482 neighbourhoods (with mean population size of approximately 1,500 people) in England, and 18,961 neighbourhoods (with mean population size of approximately 700 people) in Ontario. We examined trends in mortality amenable to healthcare by decile groups of neighbourhood deprivation within each jurisdiction. We used linear models to estimate absolute and relative gaps in amenable mortality between most and least deprived groups, considering the gradient between these extremes, and evaluated difference-in-difference comparisons between the two jurisdictions. Inequality trends were comparable in both jurisdictions from 2004-6 but diverged from 2007-11. Compared with Ontario, the absolute gap in amenable mortality in England fell between 2004-6 and 2007-11 by 19.8 per 100,000 population (95% CI: 4.8 to 34.9); and the relative gap in amenable mortality fell by 10 percentage points (95% CI: 1 to 19). The biggest divergence occurred in the most deprived decile group of neighbourhoods. In comparison to Ontario, England succeeded in reducing absolute socioeconomic gaps in mortality amenable to healthcare from 2007 to 2011, and preventing them from growing in relative terms. Equity-oriented primary care reform in England in the mid-to-late 2000s may have helped to reduce socioeconomic inequality in health, though other explanations for this divergence are possible and further research is needed on the specific causal mechanisms.

Weakly Deleterious Mutations and Low Rates of Recombination Limit the Impact of Natural Selection on Bacterial Genomes

PubMed Central

Arkin, Adam P.

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT Free-living bacteria are usually thought to have large effective population sizes, and so tiny selective differences can drive their evolution. However, because recombination is infrequent, “background selection” against slightly deleterious alleles should reduce the effective population size (Ne) by orders of magnitude. For example, for a well-mixed population with 1012 individuals and a typical level of homologous recombination (r/m = 3, i.e., nucleotide changes due to recombination [r] occur at 3 times the mutation rate [m]), we predict that Ne is <107. An argument for high Ne values for bacteria has been the high genetic diversity within many bacterial “species,” but this diversity may be due to population structure: diversity across subpopulations can be far higher than diversity within a subpopulation, which makes it difficult to estimate Ne correctly. Given an estimate of Ne, standard population genetics models imply that selection should be sufficient to drive evolution if Ne × s is >1, where s is the selection coefficient. We found that this remains approximately correct if background selection is occurring or when population structure is present. Overall, we predict that even for free-living bacteria with enormous populations, natural selection is only a significant force if s is above 10−7 or so. PMID:26670382

Using Agent-Based Modelling to Predict the Role of Wild Refugia in the Evolution of Resistance of Sea Lice to Chemotherapeutants.

PubMed

McEwan, Gregor F; Groner, Maya L; Fast, Mark D; Gettinby, George; Revie, Crawford W

2015-01-01

A major challenge for Atlantic salmon farming in the northern hemisphere is infestation by the sea louse parasite Lepeophtheirus salmonis. The most frequent method of controlling these sea louse infestations is through the use of chemical treatments. However, most major salmon farming areas have observed resistance to common chemotherapeutants. In terrestrial environments, many strategies employed to manage the evolution of resistance involve the use of refugia, where a portion of the population is left untreated to maintain susceptibility. While refugia have not been deliberately used in Atlantic salmon farming, wild salmon populations that migrate close to salmon farms may act as natural refugia. In this paper we describe an agent-based model that explores the influence of different sizes of wild salmon populations on resistance evolution in sea lice on a salmon farm. Using the model, we demonstrate that wild salmon populations can act as refugia that limit the evolution of resistance in the sea louse populations. Additionally, we demonstrate that an increase in the size of the population of wild salmon results in an increased effect in slowing the evolution of resistance. We explore the effect of a population fitness cost associated with resistance, finding that in some cases it substantially reduces the speed of evolution to chemical treatments.

Drastic population fluctuations explain the rapid extinction of the passenger pigeon.

PubMed

Hung, Chih-Ming; Shaner, Pei-Jen L; Zink, Robert M; Liu, Wei-Chung; Chu, Te-Chin; Huang, Wen-San; Li, Shou-Hsien

2014-07-22

To assess the role of human disturbances in species' extinction requires an understanding of the species population history before human impact. The passenger pigeon was once the most abundant bird in the world, with a population size estimated at 3-5 billion in the 1800s; its abrupt extinction in 1914 raises the question of how such an abundant bird could have been driven to extinction in mere decades. Although human exploitation is often blamed, the role of natural population dynamics in the passenger pigeon's extinction remains unexplored. Applying high-throughput sequencing technologies to obtain sequences from most of the genome, we calculated that the passenger pigeon's effective population size throughout the last million years was persistently about 1/10,000 of the 1800's estimated number of individuals, a ratio 1,000-times lower than typically found. This result suggests that the passenger pigeon was not always super abundant but experienced dramatic population fluctuations, resembling those of an "outbreak" species. Ecological niche models supported inference of drastic changes in the extent of its breeding range over the last glacial-interglacial cycle. An estimate of acorn-based carrying capacity during the past 21,000 y showed great year-to-year variations. Based on our results, we hypothesize that ecological conditions that dramatically reduced population size under natural conditions could have interacted with human exploitation in causing the passenger pigeon's rapid demise. Our study illustrates that even species as abundant as the passenger pigeon can be vulnerable to human threats if they are subject to dramatic population fluctuations, and provides a new perspective on the greatest human-caused extinction in recorded history.

Role of patch size, disease, and movement in rapid extinction of bighorn sheep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, F.J.; Zeigenfuss, L.C.; Spicer, L.

2001-01-01

The controversy (Berger 1990, 1999; Wehausen 1999) over rapid extinction in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) has focused on population size alone as a correlate to persistence time. We report on the persistence and population performance of 24 translocated populations of bighorn sheep. Persistence in these sheep was strongly correlated with larger patch sizes, greater distance to domestic sheep, higher population growth rates, and migratory movements, as well as to larger population sizes. Persistence was also positively correlated with larger average home-range size (p = 0.058, n = 10 translocated populations) and home-range size of rams (p = 0.087, n = 8 translocated populations). Greater home-range size and dispersal rates of bighorn sheep were positively correlated to larger patches. We conclude that patch size and thus habitat carrying capacity, not population size per se, is the primary correlate to both population performance and persistence. Because habitat carrying capacity defines the upper limit to population size, clearly the amount of suitable habitat in a patch is ultimately linked to population size. Larger populations (250+ animals) were more likely to recover rapidly to their pre-epizootic survey number following an epizootic (p = 0.019), although the proportion of the population dying in the epizootic also influenced the probability of recovery (p = 0.001). Expensive management efforts to restore or increase bighorn sheep populations should focus on large habitat patches located ≥23 km from domestic sheep, and less effort should be expended on populations in isolated, small patches of habitat.

Working with, not against, coral-reef fisheries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birkeland, Charles

2017-03-01

The fisheries policies of some Pacific island nations are more appropriate to the biology of their resources than are some of the fisheries policies of more industrialized countries. Exclusive local ownership of natural resources in Palau encourages adjustive management on biologically relevant scales of time and space and promotes responsibility by reducing the tragedy of the commons. The presence of large individuals in fish populations and adequate size of spawning aggregations are more efficient and meaningful cues for timely management than are surveys of abundance or biomass. Taking fish from populations more than halfway to their carrying capacity is working favorably with the fishery because removing fish potentially increases resource stability by negative feedback between stock size and population production. Taking the same amount of fish from a population below half its carrying capacity is working against the fishery, making the population unstable, because reducing the reproductive stock potentially accelerates reduction of the population production by positive feedback. Reef fish are consumed locally, while Palauan laws ban the export of reef resources. This is consistent with the high gross primary production with little excess net production from undisturbed coral-reef ecosystems. The relatively rapid growth rates, short life spans, reliable recruitment and wide-ranging movements of open-ocean fishes such as scombrids make them much more productive than coral-reef fishes. The greater fisheries yield per square kilometer in the open ocean multiplied by well over a thousand times the area of the exclusive economic zone than that of Palau's coral reefs should encourage Palauans to keep reef fishes for subsistence and to feed tourists open-ocean fishes. Fisheries having only artisanal means should be encouraged to increase the yield and sustainability by moving away from coral reefs to bulk harvesting of nearshore pelagics.

Temperatures in Excess of Critical Thresholds Threaten Nestling Growth and Survival in A Rapidly-Warming Arid Savanna: A Study of Common Fiscals

PubMed Central

Cunningham, Susan J.; Martin, Rowan O.; Hojem, Carryn L.

2013-01-01

Frequency, duration, and intensity of hot-weather events are all predicted to increase with climate warming. Despite this, mechanisms by which temperature increases affect individual fitness and drive population-level changes are poorly understood. We investigated the link between daily maximum air temperature (tmax) and breeding success of Kalahari common fiscals (Lanius collaris) in terms of the daily effect on nestling body-mass gain, and the cumulative effect on size and age of fledglings. High tmax reduced mass gain of younger, but not older nestlings and average nestling-period tmax did not affect fledgling size. Instead, the frequency with which tmax exceeded critical thresholds (tcrits) significantly reduced fledging body mass (tcrit = 33°C) and tarsus length (tcrit = 37°C), as well as delaying fledging (tcrit = 35°C). Nest failure risk was 4.2% per day therefore delays reduced fledging probability. Smaller size at fledging often correlates with reduced lifetime fitness and might also underlie documented adult body-size reductions in desert birds in relation to climate warming. Temperature thresholds above which organisms incur fitness costs are probably common, as physiological responses to temperature are non-linear. Understanding the shape of the relationship between temperature and fitness has implications for our ability to predict species’ responses to climate change. PMID:24040296

Impacts of Low Salinity on Growth and Calcification in Baltic Sea Mytilus edulis x trossulus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanders, T.; Melzner, F.

2016-02-01

The Baltic Sea is characterized by a steep salinity gradient (25 psu - <5 psu) which is predicted to increase in the future due to increased precipitation. This provides an excellent biological system to study the effects of salinity and inorganic carbon supply on animal physiology. Mytilus edulis x trossulus is adapted to the low saline Baltic Sea, at the cost of slow body growth and reduced shell thickness. The explanation for the small size of Baltic mytilids has been attributed to tradeoffs in energy partitioning due to high energetic costs associated with osmoregulation. However, salinity may effect calcification mechanisms and reduce calcification and thus, body size and growth. To understand the mechanistic effects salinity has on calcification, energy budgets were quantified in larvae, juveniles and adults from 3 populations of Baltic Sea Mytilus spp. at different salinities (6, 11 and 16 psu). Net CaCO3 production at varying salinities and bicarbonate concentrations was also measured. Larvae from low salinity adapted populations (6 psu) had a 3-fold higher respiration rate compared to higher salinity populations. This was also accompanied by a delay of 48 hours in early shell formation. Reductions in growth and increases in metabolism were largest between 11 psu and 6 psu indicating that the predicted desalination of the Baltic will go along with huge energetic costs for mussel populations, potentially leading to loss of reefs in the Eastern Baltic. To investigate the mechanisms behind increased metabolic cost and decreased allocation to growth, energy budgets are presently being constrained in our three populations using modulations in food supply and temperature.

Population viability analysis for endangered Roanoke logperch

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberts, James H.; Angermeier, Paul; Anderson, Gregory B.

2016-01-01

A common strategy for recovering endangered species is ensuring that populations exceed the minimum viable population size (MVP), a demographic benchmark that theoretically ensures low long-term extinction risk. One method of establishing MVP is population viability analysis, a modeling technique that simulates population trajectories and forecasts extinction risk based on a series of biological, environmental, and management assumptions. Such models also help identify key uncertainties that have a large influence on extinction risk. We used stochastic count-based simulation models to explore extinction risk, MVP, and the possible benefits of alternative management strategies in populations of Roanoke logperch Percina rex, an endangered stream fish. Estimates of extinction risk were sensitive to the assumed population growth rate and model type, carrying capacity, and catastrophe regime (frequency and severity of anthropogenic fish kills), whereas demographic augmentation did little to reduce extinction risk. Under density-dependent growth, the estimated MVP for Roanoke logperch ranged from 200 to 4200 individuals, depending on the assumed severity of catastrophes. Thus, depending on the MVP threshold, anywhere from two to all five of the logperch populations we assessed were projected to be viable. Despite this uncertainty, these results help identify populations with the greatest relative extinction risk, as well as management strategies that might reduce this risk the most, such as increasing carrying capacity and reducing fish kills. Better estimates of population growth parameters and catastrophe regimes would facilitate the refinement of MVP and extinction-risk estimates, and they should be a high priority for future research on Roanoke logperch and other imperiled stream-fish species.

Differences in Spending in School Districts across Geographic Locales in Minnesota. Issues & Answers. REL 2012-No. 124

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wan, Yinmei; Norbury, Heather; Molefe, Ayrin C.; Gerdeman, R. Dean; Meyers, Coby V.; Burke, Matthew

2012-01-01

This study examines the relationship between school district expenditures and district characteristics, including regional features (enrollment size, student population density, labor costs, and geographic remoteness) and level of student need (percentages of students eligible for free or reduced-price lunch, of special education students, and of…

Concordance of nuclear and mitochondrial DNA markers in detecting a founder event in Lake Clark sockeye salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ramstad, Kristina M.; Woody, Carol Ann; Habicht, Chris; Sage, G. Kevin; Seeb, James E.; Allendorf, Fred W.

2007-01-01

Genetic bottleneck effects can reduce genetic variation, persistence probability, and evolutionary potential of populations. Previous microsatellite analysis suggested a bottleneck associated with a common founding of sock-eye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka populations of Lake Clark, Alaska, about 100 to 400 generations ago. The common foundingevent occurred after the last glacial recession and resulted in reduced allelic diversity and strong divergence of Lake Clarksockeye salmon relative to neighboring Six Mile Lake and LakeIliamna populations. Here we used two additional genetic marker types (allozymes and mtDNA) to examine these patterns further. Allozyme and mtDNA results were congruent with the microsatellite data in suggesting a common founder event in LakeClark sockeye salmon and confirmed the divergence of Lake Clarkpopulations from neighboring Six Mile Lake and Lake Iliamna populations. The use of multiple marker types provided better understanding of the bottleneck in Lake Clark. For example, the Sucker Bay Lake population had an exceptionally severe reduction in allelic diversity at microsatellite loci, but not at mtDNA. This suggests that the reduced microsatellite variation in Sucker Bay Lake fish is due to consistently smaller effective population size than other Lake Clark populations, rather than a more acute or additional bottleneck since founding. Caution is urged in using reduced heterozygosity as a measure of genetic bottleneck effects because stochastic variance among loci resulted in an overall increase in allozyme heterozygosity within bottlenecked Lake Clark populations. However, heterozygosity excess, which assesses heterozygosity relative to allelic variation, detected genetic bottleneck effects in both allozyme and microsatellite loci. 

Uncertainty in Population Estimates for Endangered Animals and Improving the Recovery Process.

PubMed

Haines, Aaron M; Zak, Matthew; Hammond, Katie; Scott, J Michael; Goble, Dale D; Rachlow, Janet L

2013-08-13

United States recovery plans contain biological information for a species listed under the Endangered Species Act and specify recovery criteria to provide basis for species recovery. The objective of our study was to evaluate whether recovery plans provide uncertainty (e.g., variance) with estimates of population size. We reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species to record the following data: (1) if a current population size was given, (2) if a measure of uncertainty or variance was associated with current estimates of population size and (3) if population size was stipulated for recovery. We found that 59% of completed recovery plans specified a current population size, 14.5% specified a variance for the current population size estimate and 43% specified population size as a recovery criterion. More recent recovery plans reported more estimates of current population size, uncertainty and population size as a recovery criterion. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty compared to reptiles and amphibians. We suggest the use of calculating minimum detectable differences to improve confidence when delisting endangered animals and we identified incentives for individuals to get involved in recovery planning to improve access to quantitative data.

The demographic consequences of growing older and bigger in oyster populations.

PubMed

Moore, Jacob L; Lipcius, Romuald N; Puckett, Brandon; Schreiber, Sebastian J

2016-10-01

Structured population models, particularly size- or age-structured, have a long history of informing conservation and natural resource management. While size is often easier to measure than age and is the focus of many management strategies, age-structure can have important effects on population dynamics that are not captured in size-only models. However, relatively few studies have included the simultaneous effects of both age- and size-structure. To better understand how population structure, particularly that of age and size, impacts restoration and management decisions, we developed and compared a size-structured integral projection model (IPM) and an age- and size-structured IPM, using a population of Crassostrea gigas oysters in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We analyzed sensitivity of model results across values of local retention that give populations decreasing in size to populations increasing in size. We found that age- and size-structured models yielded the best fit to the demographic data and provided more reliable results about long-term demography. Elasticity analysis showed that population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in the survival of both large (>175 mm shell length) and small (<75 mm shell length) oysters, indicating that a maximum size limit, in addition to a minimum size limit, could be an effective strategy for maintaining a sustainable population. In contrast, the purely size-structured model did not detect the importance of large individuals. Finally, patterns in stable age and stable size distributions differed between populations decreasing in size due to limited local retention and populations increasing in size due to high local retention. These patterns can be used to determine population status and restoration success. The methodology described here provides general insight into the necessity of including both age- and size-structure into modeling frameworks when using population models to inform restoration and management decisions. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Prey life-history and bioenergetic responses across a predation gradient.

PubMed

Rennie, M D; Purchase, C F; Shuter, B J; Collins, N C; Abrams, P A; Morgan, G E

2010-10-01

To evaluate the importance of non-consumptive effects of predators on prey life histories under natural conditions, an index of predator abundance was developed for naturally occurring populations of a common prey fish, the yellow perch Perca flavescens, and compared to life-history variables and rates of prey energy acquisition and allocation as estimated from mass balance models. The predation index was positively related to maximum size and size at maturity in both male and female P. flavescens, but not with life span or reproductive investment. The predation index was positively related to size-adjusted specific growth rates and growth efficiencies but negatively related to model estimates of size-adjusted specific consumption and activity rates in both vulnerable (small) and invulnerable (large) size classes of P. flavescens. These observations suggest a trade-off between growth and activity rates, mediated by reduced activity in response to increasing predator densities. Lower growth rates and growth efficiencies in populations with fewer predators, despite increased consumption suggests either 1) a reduction in prey resources at lower predator densities or 2) an intrinsic cost of rapid prey growth that makes it unfavourable unless offset by a perceived threat of predation. This study provides evidence of trade-offs between growth and activity rates induced by predation risk in natural prey fish populations and illustrates how behavioural modification induced through predation can shape the life histories of prey fish species. © 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Fishing-induced life-history changes degrade and destabilize harvested ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuparinen, Anna; Boit, Alice; Valdovinos, Fernanda S.; Lassaux, Hélène; Martinez, Neo D.

2016-02-01

Fishing is widely known to magnify fluctuations in targeted populations. These fluctuations are correlated with population shifts towards young, small, and more quickly maturing individuals. However, the existence and nature of the mechanistic basis for these correlations and their potential ecosystem impacts remain highly uncertain. Here, we elucidate this basis and associated impacts by showing how fishing can increase fluctuations in fishes and their ecosystem, particularly when coupled with decreasing body sizes and advancing maturation characteristic of the life-history changes induced by fishing. More specifically, using an empirically parameterized network model of a well-studied lake ecosystem, we show how fishing may both increase fluctuations in fish abundances and also, when accompanied by decreasing body size of adults, further decrease fish abundance and increase temporal variability of fishes’ food resources and their ecosystem. In contrast, advanced maturation has relatively little effect except to increase variability in juvenile populations. Our findings illustrate how different mechanisms underlying life-history changes that may arise as evolutionary responses to intensive, size-selective fishing can rapidly and continuously destabilize and degrade ecosystems even after fishing has ceased. This research helps better predict how life-history changes may reduce fishes’ resilience to fishing and ecosystems’ resistance to environmental variations.

Fishing-induced life-history changes degrade and destabilize harvested ecosystems.

PubMed

Kuparinen, Anna; Boit, Alice; Valdovinos, Fernanda S; Lassaux, Hélène; Martinez, Neo D

2016-02-26

Fishing is widely known to magnify fluctuations in targeted populations. These fluctuations are correlated with population shifts towards young, small, and more quickly maturing individuals. However, the existence and nature of the mechanistic basis for these correlations and their potential ecosystem impacts remain highly uncertain. Here, we elucidate this basis and associated impacts by showing how fishing can increase fluctuations in fishes and their ecosystem, particularly when coupled with decreasing body sizes and advancing maturation characteristic of the life-history changes induced by fishing. More specifically, using an empirically parameterized network model of a well-studied lake ecosystem, we show how fishing may both increase fluctuations in fish abundances and also, when accompanied by decreasing body size of adults, further decrease fish abundance and increase temporal variability of fishes' food resources and their ecosystem. In contrast, advanced maturation has relatively little effect except to increase variability in juvenile populations. Our findings illustrate how different mechanisms underlying life-history changes that may arise as evolutionary responses to intensive, size-selective fishing can rapidly and continuously destabilize and degrade ecosystems even after fishing has ceased. This research helps better predict how life-history changes may reduce fishes' resilience to fishing and ecosystems' resistance to environmental variations.

Hypersalinity drives physiological and morphological changes in Limia perugiae (Poeciliidae)

PubMed Central

Tello, Oscar; Krieger, Jonathan; Marmolejo, Arlen; Weaver, Kathleen F.; Garcia, Jerome V.; Cruz, Alexander

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT A fundamental question in biology is how an organism's morphology and physiology are shaped by its environment. Here, we evaluate the effects of a hypersaline environment on the morphology and physiology of a population of livebearing fish in the genus Limia (Poeciliidae). We sampled from two populations of Limia perugiae (one freshwater and one hypersaline) in the southwest Dominican Republic. We evaluated relative abundance of osmoregulatory proteins using western blot analyses and used a geometric morphometric approach to evaluate fine-scale changes to size and shape. Our data show that gill tissue isolated from hypersaline fish contained approximately two and a half times higher expression of Na+/K+ ATPase proteins. We also show evidence for mitochondrial changes within the gills, with eight times more complex I and four times higher expression of ATP synthase within the gill tissue from the hypersaline population. The energetic consequences to Limia living in saline and hypersaline environments may be a driver for phenotypic diversity, reducing the overall body size and changing the relative size and shape of the head, as well as impeding the growth of secondary sex features among the males. PMID:27402966

Chronic contamination decreases disease spread: a Daphnia–fungus–copper case study

PubMed Central

Civitello, David J.; Forys, Philip; Johnson, Adam P.; Hall, Spencer R.

2012-01-01

Chemical contamination and disease outbreaks have increased in many ecosystems. However, connecting pollution to disease spread remains difficult, in part, because contaminants can simultaneously exert direct and multi-generational effects on several host and parasite traits. To address these challenges, we parametrized a model using a zooplankton–fungus–copper system. In individual-level assays, we considered three sublethal contamination scenarios: no contamination, single-generation contamination (hosts and parasites exposed only during the assays) and multi-generational contamination (hosts and parasites exposed for several generations prior to and during the assays). Contamination boosted transmission by increasing contact of hosts with parasites. However, it diminished parasite reproduction by reducing the size and lifespan of infected hosts. Multi-generational contamination further reduced parasite reproduction. The parametrized model predicted that a single generation of contamination would enhance disease spread (via enhanced transmission), whereas multi-generational contamination would inhibit epidemics relative to unpolluted conditions (through greatly depressed parasite reproduction). In a population-level experiment, multi-generational contamination reduced the size of experimental epidemics but did not affect Daphnia populations without disease. This result highlights the importance of multi-generational effects for disease dynamics. Such integration of models with experiments can provide predictive power for disease problems in contaminated environments. PMID:22593104

Adaptive harvest management for the Svalbard population of Pink-Footed Geese: 2014 progress summary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.; Madsen, J.

2015-01-01

During the summer of 2013 we computed an optimal harvest strategy for the 3-year period 2013 – 2015. The strategy suggested that the appropriate annual harvest quota is 15 thousand. The 1-year harvest strategy calculated to determine whether an emergency closure of the hunting season is required this year suggested an allowable harvest of 25.0 thousand; thus, a hunting-season closure is not warranted.  If the harvest quota of 15 thousand were met in the coming hunting season, the next population count would be expected to be 71.0 thousand.  If only the most recent 4-year mean harvest were realized (11.3 thousand), a population size of 74.8 thousand would be expected.  Simulations suggest that it will take approximately seven years at current harvest levels to reduce population size to the goal of 60 thousand.  However, it is possible that the extension of the forthcoming hunting season in Denmark could result in a total harvest approaching 15 thousand; in this case, simulations suggest it would only take about three years to reach the goal.

Allee effect: the story behind the stabilization or extinction of microbial ecosystem.

PubMed

Goswami, Madhurankhi; Bhattacharyya, Purnita; Tribedi, Prosun

2017-03-01

A population exhibiting Allee effect shows a positive correlation between population fitness and population size or density. Allee effect decides the extinction or conservation of a microbial population and thus appears to be an important criterion in population ecology. The underlying factor of Allee effect that decides the stabilization and extinction of a particular population density is the threshold or the critical density of their abundance. According to Allee, microbial populations exhibit a definite, critical or threshold density, beyond which the population fitness of a particular population increases with the rise in population density and below it, the population fitness goes down with the decrease in population density. In particular, microbial population displays advantageous traits such as biofilm formation, expression of virulence genes, spore formation and many more only at a high population density. It has also been observed that microorganisms exhibiting a lower population density undergo complete extinction from the residual microbial ecosystem. In reference to Allee effect, decrease in population density or size introduces deleterious mutations among the population density through genetic drift. Mutations are carried forward to successive generations resulting in its accumulation among the population density thus reducing its microbial fitness and thereby increasing the risk of extinction of a particular microbial population. However, when the microbial load is high, the chance of genetic drift is less, and through the process of biofilm formation, the cooperation existing among the microbial population increases that increases the microbial fitness. Thus, the high microbial population through the formation of microbial biofilm stabilizes the ecosystem by increasing fitness. Taken together, microbial fitness shows positive correlation with the ecosystem conservation and negative correlation with ecosystem extinction.

Sex change and effective population size: implications for population genetic studies in marine fish.

PubMed

Coscia, I; Chopelet, J; Waples, R S; Mann, B Q; Mariani, S

2016-10-01

Large variance in reproductive success is the primary factor that reduces effective population size (Ne) in natural populations. In sequentially hermaphroditic (sex-changing) fish, the sex ratio is typically skewed and biased towards the 'first' sex, while reproductive success increases considerably after sex change. Therefore, sex-changing fish populations are theoretically expected to have lower Ne than gonochorists (separate sexes), assuming all other parameters are essentially equal. In this study, we estimate Ne from genetic data collected from two ecologically similar species living along the eastern coast of South Africa: one gonochoristic, the 'santer' sea bream Cheimerius nufar, and one protogynous (female-first) sex changer, the 'slinger' sea bream Chrysoblephus puniceus. For both species, no evidence of genetic structuring, nor significant variation in genetic diversity, was found in the study area. Estimates of contemporary Ne were significantly lower in the protogynous species, but the same pattern was not apparent over historical timescales. Overall, our results show that sequential hermaphroditism may affect Ne differently over varying time frames, and that demographic signatures inferred from genetic markers with different inheritance modes also need to be interpreted cautiously, in relation to sex-changing life histories.

Introgression Makes Waves in Inferred Histories of Effective Population Size.

PubMed

Hawks, John

2017-01-01

Human populations have a complex history of introgression and of changing population size. Human genetic variation has been affected by both these processes, so inference of past population size depends upon the pattern of gene flow and introgression among past populations. One remarkable aspect of human population history as inferred from genetics is a consistent "wave" of larger effective population sizes, found in both African and non-African populations, that appears to reflect events prior to the last 100,000 years. I carried out a series of simulations to investigate how introgression and gene flow from genetically divergent ancestral populations affect the inference of ancestral effective population size. Both introgression and gene flow from an extinct, genetically divergent population consistently produce a wave in the history of inferred effective population size. The time and amplitude of the wave reflect the time of origin of the genetically divergent ancestral populations and the strength of introgression or gene flow. These results demonstrate that even small fractions of introgression or gene flow from ancient populations may have visible effects on the inference of effective population size.

Social barriers to pathogen transmission in wild animal populations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loehle, C.

Diseases and pathogens are receiving increasing recognition as sources of mortality in animal populations. Immune system strength is clearly important in fending off pathogen attack. Physical barriers to pathogen entry are also important. Various individual behaviors are efficacious in reducing contact with diseases and pests. This paper focuses on a fourth mode of defense: social barriers to transmission. Various social behaviors have pathogen transmission consequences. Selective pressures on these social behaviors may therefore exist. Effects on pathogen transmission of mating strategies, social avoidance, group size, group isolation, and other behaviors are explored. It is concluded that many of these behaviorsmore » may have been affected by selection pressures to reduce transmission of pathogens. 84 refs., 1 tab.« less

Effects of ambient oxygen and size-selective mortality on growth and maturation in guppies

PubMed Central

Diaz Pauli, Beatriz; Kolding, Jeppe; Jeyakanth, Geetha

2017-01-01

Abstract Growth, onset of maturity and investment in reproduction are key traits for understanding variation in life-history strategies. Many environmental factors affect variation in these traits, but for fish, hypoxia and size-dependent mortality have become increasingly important because of human activities, such as increased nutrient enrichment (eutrophication), climate warming and selective fishing. Here, we study experimentally the effect of oxygen availability on maturation and growth in guppies (Poecilia reticulata) from two different selected lines, one subjected to positive and the other negative size-dependent fishing. This is the first study to assess the effects of both reduced ambient oxygen and size-dependent mortality in fish. We show that reduced ambient oxygen led to stunting, early maturation and high reproductive investment. Likewise, lineages that had been exposed to high mortality of larger-sized individuals displayed earlier maturation at smaller size, greater investment in reproduction and faster growth. These life-history changes were particularly evident for males. The widely reported trends towards earlier maturation in wild fish populations are often interpreted as resulting from size-selective fishing. Our results highlight that reduced ambient oxygen, which has received little experimental investigation to date, can lead to similar phenotypic changes. Thus, changes in ambient oxygen levels can be a confounding factor that occurs in parallel with fishing, complicating the causal interpretation of changes in life-history traits. We believe that better disentangling of the effects of these two extrinsic factors, which increasingly affect many freshwater and marine ecosystems, is important for making more informed management decisions. PMID:28361001

Characteristics of ring-cusp discharge chambers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matossian, J. N.; Beattie, J. R.

1991-01-01

Measurements have been obtained for the operating characteristics of a 30 cm diameter ring-cusp ion thruster (RCIT), quantitatively comparing its performance parameters to those of a divergent-field J-series cluster of the same size. The high level of performance established for the RCIT is due to its maintenance of both a higher primary-electron population and Maxwellian-electron temperature, as the beam-ion production cost is reduced to its baseline value. Ion losses to the discharge-chamber walls can be reduced by an applied electrostatic field.

Implications of Harvest on the Boundaries of Protected Areas for Large Carnivore Viewing Opportunities.

PubMed

Borg, Bridget L; Arthur, Stephen M; Bromen, Nicholas A; Cassidy, Kira A; McIntyre, Rick; Smith, Douglas W; Prugh, Laura R

2016-01-01

The desire to see free ranging large carnivores in their natural habitat is a driver of tourism in protected areas around the globe. However, large carnivores are wide-ranging and subject to human-caused mortality outside protected area boundaries. The impact of harvest (trapping or hunting) on wildlife viewing opportunities has been the subject of intense debate and speculation, but quantitative analyses have been lacking. We examined the effect of legal harvest of wolves (Canis lupus) along the boundaries of two North American National Parks, Denali (DNPP) and Yellowstone (YNP), on wolf viewing opportunities within the parks during peak tourist season. We used data on wolf sightings, pack sizes, den site locations, and harvest adjacent to DNPP from 1997-2013 and YNP from 2008-2013 to evaluate the relationship between harvest and wolf viewing opportunities. Although sightings were largely driven by wolf population size and proximity of den sites to roads, sightings in both parks were significantly reduced by harvest. Sightings in YNP increased by 45% following years with no harvest of a wolf from a pack, and sightings in DNPP were more than twice as likely during a period with a harvest buffer zone than in years without the buffer. These findings show that harvest of wolves adjacent to protected areas can reduce sightings within those areas despite minimal impacts on the size of protected wolf populations. Consumptive use of carnivores adjacent to protected areas may therefore reduce their potential for non-consumptive use, and these tradeoffs should be considered when developing regional wildlife management policies.

Implications of Harvest on the Boundaries of Protected Areas for Large Carnivore Viewing Opportunities

PubMed Central

Borg, Bridget L.; Arthur, Stephen M.; Bromen, Nicholas A.; Cassidy, Kira A.; McIntyre, Rick; Smith, Douglas W.; Prugh, Laura R.

2016-01-01

The desire to see free ranging large carnivores in their natural habitat is a driver of tourism in protected areas around the globe. However, large carnivores are wide-ranging and subject to human-caused mortality outside protected area boundaries. The impact of harvest (trapping or hunting) on wildlife viewing opportunities has been the subject of intense debate and speculation, but quantitative analyses have been lacking. We examined the effect of legal harvest of wolves (Canis lupus) along the boundaries of two North American National Parks, Denali (DNPP) and Yellowstone (YNP), on wolf viewing opportunities within the parks during peak tourist season. We used data on wolf sightings, pack sizes, den site locations, and harvest adjacent to DNPP from 1997–2013 and YNP from 2008–2013 to evaluate the relationship between harvest and wolf viewing opportunities. Although sightings were largely driven by wolf population size and proximity of den sites to roads, sightings in both parks were significantly reduced by harvest. Sightings in YNP increased by 45% following years with no harvest of a wolf from a pack, and sightings in DNPP were more than twice as likely during a period with a harvest buffer zone than in years without the buffer. These findings show that harvest of wolves adjacent to protected areas can reduce sightings within those areas despite minimal impacts on the size of protected wolf populations. Consumptive use of carnivores adjacent to protected areas may therefore reduce their potential for non-consumptive use, and these tradeoffs should be considered when developing regional wildlife management policies. PMID:27124729

Urban landscape genomics identifies fine-scale gene flow patterns in an avian invasive.

PubMed

Low, G W; Chattopadhyay, B; Garg, K M; Irestedt, M; Ericson, Pgp; Yap, G; Tang, Q; Wu, S; Rheindt, F E

2018-01-01

Invasive species exert a serious impact on native fauna and flora and have been the target of many eradication and management efforts worldwide. However, a lack of data on population structure and history, exacerbated by the recency of many species introductions, limits the efficiency with which such species can be kept at bay. In this study we generated a novel genome of high assembly quality and genotyped 4735 genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphic (SNP) markers from 78 individuals of an invasive population of the Javan Myna Acridotheres javanicus across the island of Singapore. We inferred limited population subdivision at a micro-geographic level, a genetic patch size (~13-14 km) indicative of a pronounced dispersal ability, and barely an increase in effective population size since introduction despite an increase of four to five orders of magnitude in actual population size, suggesting that low population-genetic diversity following a bottleneck has not impeded establishment success. Landscape genomic analyses identified urban features, such as low-rise neighborhoods, that constitute pronounced barriers to gene flow. Based on our data, we consider an approach targeting the complete eradication of Javan Mynas across Singapore to be unfeasible. Instead, a mixed approach of localized mitigation measures taking into account urban geographic features and planning policy may be the most promising avenue to reducing the adverse impacts of this urban pest. Our study demonstrates how genomic methods can directly inform the management and control of invasive species, even in geographically limited datasets with high gene flow rates.

Selection and Reduced Population Size Cannot Explain Higher Amounts of Neandertal Ancestry in East Asian than in European Human Populations

PubMed Central

Kim, Bernard Y.; Lohmueller, Kirk E.

2015-01-01

It has been hypothesized that the greater proportion of Neandertal ancestry in East Asians than in Europeans is due to the fact that purifying selection is less effective at removing weakly deleterious Neandertal alleles from East Asian populations. Using simulations of a broad range of models of selection and demography, we have shown that this hypothesis cannot account for the higher proportion of Neandertal ancestry in East Asians than in Europeans. Instead, more complex demographic scenarios, most likely involving multiple pulses of Neandertal admixture, are required to explain the data. PMID:25683122

Sage grouse

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmerman, Shawna; Timmer, Jennifer M.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Braun, Clait E.; Young, Jessica R.

2017-01-01

Sage grouse are a group of chicken-sized birds with a unique breeding behavior and dependence on sagebrush shrubs (genus Artemisia) for food and shelter throughout their life cycle. In the last century, human population expansion throughout western North America has reduced the amount of sagebrush and degraded and fragmented the remaining areas. Vanishing sagebrush has resulted in sage grouse (genus Centrocercus) population declines and elevated conservation concern. Western Colorado is home to both species of sage grouse: greater sage grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) and Gunnison sage grouse (Centrocercus minimus). Populations in the state, and throughout their range, have declined sufficiently to warrant consideration for federal protection for both species under the Endangered Species Act.

Control of Eucryptorrhynchus scrobiculatus (Coleoptera: Cuculionidae), a Major Pest of Ailanthus altissima (Sapindales: Simaroubaceae), Using a Modified Square Trap Net.

PubMed

Yang, Kailang; Wen, Xiaojian; Ren, Yuan; Wen, Junbao

2018-04-19

Eucryptorrhynchus scrobiculatus (Motschulsky) (Coleoptera: Cuculionidae) is a borer that mainly attacks the tree of heaven, Ailanthus altissima (Mill.) Swingle (Sapindales: Simaroubaceae), and is one of the most damaging forestry pests in China. We developed a trap net for entangling and immobilizing soil-emerging weevils in order to reduce their impact. Recapture rates of weevils in the laboratory was significantly higher with nylon netting of 9, 10, or 11 mm mesh sizes than larger sizes, and these sizes were used to make trial nets for preventing weevil emergence from the soil around impacted trees in the field. Nets were 2 × 2 m with a reinforced border and Velcro-closable, radial slit which allowed the net to be arranged around the base of the tree while producing an unbroken barrier beneath the soil surface (i.e., a modified square trap net, MSTN). Recapture rates of weevils released in the soil did not differ among the MSTNs of 9, 10, or 11 mm mesh sizes. MSTN treatments significantly reduced emergence by naturally-occurring weevils from the soil surrounding trees and reduced numbers of weevils caught in population monitoring traps deployed in treated stands. The results demonstrated that MSTNs might be used to manage of E. scrobiculatus.

Egg size investment in superb fairy-wrens: helper effects are modulated by climate

PubMed Central

Heinsohn, R. G.; Russell, A. F.; Kilner, R. M.

2016-01-01

Natural populations might exhibit resilience to changing climatic conditions if they already show adaptive flexibility in their reproductive strategies. In cooperative breeders, theory predicts that mothers with helpers should provide less care when environmental conditions are favourable, but maintain high investment when conditions are challenging. Here, we test for evidence of climate-mediated flexibility in maternal investment in the cooperatively breeding superb fairy-wren Malurus cyaneus. We focus on egg size because in this species egg size influences offspring size, and females reduce egg investment when there are helpers at the nest. We report that females lay larger eggs during dry, hot conditions. However, the effect of temperature is modulated by the presence of helpers: the average egg size of females with helpers is reduced during cooler conditions but increased during hot conditions relative to females without helpers. This appears to reflect plasticity in egg investment rather than among female differences. Analysis of maternal survival suggests that helped females are better able to withstand the costs of breeding in hot conditions than females without helpers. Our study suggests that females can use multiple, independent cues to modulate egg investment flexibly in a variable environment. PMID:27903872

Egg size investment in superb fairy-wrens: helper effects are modulated by climate.

PubMed

Langmore, N E; Bailey, L D; Heinsohn, R G; Russell, A F; Kilner, R M

2016-11-30

Natural populations might exhibit resilience to changing climatic conditions if they already show adaptive flexibility in their reproductive strategies. In cooperative breeders, theory predicts that mothers with helpers should provide less care when environmental conditions are favourable, but maintain high investment when conditions are challenging. Here, we test for evidence of climate-mediated flexibility in maternal investment in the cooperatively breeding superb fairy-wren Malurus cyaneus We focus on egg size because in this species egg size influences offspring size, and females reduce egg investment when there are helpers at the nest. We report that females lay larger eggs during dry, hot conditions. However, the effect of temperature is modulated by the presence of helpers: the average egg size of females with helpers is reduced during cooler conditions but increased during hot conditions relative to females without helpers. This appears to reflect plasticity in egg investment rather than among female differences. Analysis of maternal survival suggests that helped females are better able to withstand the costs of breeding in hot conditions than females without helpers. Our study suggests that females can use multiple, independent cues to modulate egg investment flexibly in a variable environment. © 2016 The Author(s).

Effective population sizes of a major vector of human diseases, Aedes aegypti.

PubMed

Saarman, Norah P; Gloria-Soria, Andrea; Anderson, Eric C; Evans, Benjamin R; Pless, Evlyn; Cosme, Luciano V; Gonzalez-Acosta, Cassandra; Kamgang, Basile; Wesson, Dawn M; Powell, Jeffrey R

2017-12-01

The effective population size ( N e ) is a fundamental parameter in population genetics that determines the relative strength of selection and random genetic drift, the effect of migration, levels of inbreeding, and linkage disequilibrium. In many cases where it has been estimated in animals, N e is on the order of 10%-20% of the census size. In this study, we use 12 microsatellite markers and 14,888 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to empirically estimate N e in Aedes aegypti , the major vector of yellow fever, dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. We used the method of temporal sampling to estimate N e on a global dataset made up of 46 samples of Ae. aegypti that included multiple time points from 17 widely distributed geographic localities. Our N e estimates for Ae. aegypti fell within a broad range (~25-3,000) and averaged between 400 and 600 across all localities and time points sampled. Adult census size (N c ) estimates for this species range between one and five thousand, so the N e / N c ratio is about the same as for most animals. These N e values are lower than estimates available for other insects and have important implications for the design of genetic control strategies to reduce the impact of this species of mosquito on human health.

Effective population size of korean populations.

PubMed

Park, Leeyoung

2014-12-01

Recently, new methods have been developed for estimating the current and recent changes in effective population sizes. Based on the methods, the effective population sizes of Korean populations were estimated using data from the Korean Association Resource (KARE) project. The overall changes in the population sizes of the total populations were similar to CHB (Han Chinese in Beijing, China) and JPT (Japanese in Tokyo, Japan) of the HapMap project. There were no differences in past changes in population sizes with a comparison between an urban area and a rural area. Age-dependent current and recent effective population sizes represent the modern history of Korean populations, including the effects of World War II, the Korean War, and urbanization. The oldest age group showed that the population growth of Koreans had already been substantial at least since the end of the 19th century.

Mathematical properties and bounds on haplotyping populations by pure parsimony.

PubMed

Wang, I-Lin; Chang, Chia-Yuan

2011-06-01

Although the haplotype data can be used to analyze the function of DNA, due to the significant efforts required in collecting the haplotype data, usually the genotype data is collected and then the population haplotype inference (PHI) problem is solved to infer haplotype data from genotype data for a population. This paper investigates the PHI problem based on the pure parsimony criterion (HIPP), which seeks the minimum number of distinct haplotypes to infer a given genotype data. We analyze the mathematical structure and properties for the HIPP problem, propose techniques to reduce the given genotype data into an equivalent one of much smaller size, and analyze the relations of genotype data using a compatible graph. Based on the mathematical properties in the compatible graph, we propose a maximal clique heuristic to obtain an upper bound, and a new polynomial-sized integer linear programming formulation to obtain a lower bound for the HIPP problem. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating the size of hidden populations using respondent-driven sampling data: Case examples from Morocco

PubMed Central

Johnston, Lisa G; McLaughlin, Katherine R; Rhilani, Houssine El; Latifi, Amina; Toufik, Abdalla; Bennani, Aziza; Alami, Kamal; Elomari, Boutaina; Handcock, Mark S

2015-01-01

Background Respondent-driven sampling is used worldwide to estimate the population prevalence of characteristics such as HIV/AIDS and associated risk factors in hard-to-reach populations. Estimating the total size of these populations is of great interest to national and international organizations, however reliable measures of population size often do not exist. Methods Successive Sampling-Population Size Estimation (SS-PSE) along with network size imputation allows population size estimates to be made without relying on separate studies or additional data (as in network scale-up, multiplier and capture-recapture methods), which may be biased. Results Ten population size estimates were calculated for people who inject drugs, female sex workers, men who have sex with other men, and migrants from sub-Sahara Africa in six different cities in Morocco. SS-PSE estimates fell within or very close to the likely values provided by experts and the estimates from previous studies using other methods. Conclusions SS-PSE is an effective method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations that leverages important information within respondent-driven sampling studies. The addition of a network size imputation method helps to smooth network sizes allowing for more accurate results. However, caution should be used particularly when there is reason to believe that clustered subgroups may exist within the population of interest or when the sample size is small in relation to the population. PMID:26258908

Diagnostic schemes for reducing epidemic size of African viral hemorrhagic fever outbreaks.

PubMed

Okeke, Iruka N; Manning, Robert S; Pfeiffer, Thomas

2014-09-12

Viral hemorrhagic fever (VHF) outbreaks, with high mortality rates, have often been amplified in African health institutions due to person-to-person transmission via infected body fluids.  By collating and analyzing epidemiological data from documented outbreaks, we observed that diagnostic delay contributes to epidemic size for Ebola and Marburg hemorrhagic fever outbreaks. We used a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model and data from the 1995 outbreak in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of Congo, to simulate Ebola hemorrhagic fever epidemics. Our model allows us to describe the dynamics for hospital staff separately from that for the general population, and to implement health worker-specific interventions. The model illustrates that implementing World Health Organization/US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines of isolating patients who do not respond to antimalarial and antibacterial chemotherapy reduces total outbreak size, from a median of 236, by 90% or more. Routinely employing diagnostic testing in post-mortems of patients that died of refractory fevers reduces the median outbreak size by a further 60%. Even greater reductions in outbreak size were seen when all febrile patients were tested for endemic infections or when febrile health-care workers were tested.  The effect of testing strategies was not impaired by the 1-3 day delay that would occur if testing were performed by a reference laboratory. In addition to improving the quality of care for common causes of febrile infections, increased and strategic use of laboratory diagnostics for fever could reduce the chance of hospital amplification of VHFs in resource-limited African health systems.

Genetic rescue of an insular population of large mammals

PubMed Central

Hogg, John T; Forbes, Stephen H; Steele, Brian M; Luikart, Gordon

2006-01-01

Natural populations worldwide are increasingly fragmented by habitat loss. Isolation at small population size is thought to reduce individual and population fitness via inbreeding depression. However, little is known about the time-scale over which adverse genetic effects may develop in natural populations or the number and types of traits likely to be affected. The benefits of restoring gene flow to isolates are therefore also largely unknown. In contrast, the potential costs of migration (e.g. disease spread) are readily apparent. Management for ecological connectivity has therefore been controversial and sometimes avoided. Using pedigree and life-history data collected during 25 years of study, we evaluated genetic decline and rescue in a population of bighorn sheep founded by 12 individuals in 1922 and isolated at an average size of 42 animals for 10–12 generations. Immigration was restored experimentally, beginning in 1985. We detected marked improvements in reproduction, survival and five fitness-related traits among descendants of the 15 recent migrants. Trait values were increased by 23–257% in maximally outbred individuals. This is the first demonstration, to our knowledge, of increased male and female fitness attributable to outbreeding realized in a fully competitive natural setting. Our findings suggest that genetic principles deserve broader recognition as practical management tools with near-term consequences for large-mammal conservation. PMID:16777743

The Effect of Recurrent Floods on Genetic Composition of Marble Trout Populations

PubMed Central

Pujolar, José Martin; Vincenzi, Simone; Zane, Lorenzo; Jesensek, Dusan; De Leo, Giulio A.; Crivelli, Alain J.

2011-01-01

A changing global climate can threaten the diversity of species and ecosystems. We explore the consequences of catastrophic disturbances in determining the evolutionary and demographic histories of secluded marble trout populations in Slovenian streams subjected to weather extremes, in particular recurrent flash floods and debris flows causing massive mortalities. Using microsatellite data, a pattern of extreme genetic differentiation was found among populations (global F ST of 0.716), which exceeds the highest values reported in freshwater fish. All locations showed low levels of genetic diversity as evidenced by low heterozygosities and a mean of only 2 alleles per locus, with few or no rare alleles. Many loci showed a discontinuous allele distribution, with missing alleles across the allele size range, suggestive of a population contraction. Accordingly, bottleneck episodes were inferred for all samples with a reduction in population size of 3–4 orders of magnitude. The reduced level of genetic diversity observed in all populations implies a strong impact of genetic drift, and suggests that along with limited gene flow, genetic differentiation might have been exacerbated by recurrent mortalities likely caused by flash flood and debris flows. Due to its low evolutionary potential the species might fail to cope with an intensification and altered frequency of flash flood events predicted to occur with climate change. PMID:21931617

Intra-sexual competition alters the relationship between testosterone and ornament expression in a wild territorial bird.

PubMed

Martínez-Padilla, J; Pérez-Rodríguez, L; Mougeot, F; Ludwig, S; Redpath, S M

2014-05-01

In a reliable signalling system, individual quality is expected to mediate the costs associated with ornamental displays, with relatively lower costs being paid by individuals of higher quality. These relative costs should depend not only on individual quality, but also on levels of intra-sexual competition. We explored the current and delayed effects that testosterone implants have on bird ornamentation in populations with contrasted population densities, as a proxy for intra-sexual competition. In a replicated experiment, we manipulated testosterone in 196 yearling male red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus in autumn in populations of high and low levels of intra-sexual competition. Males were assigned to one of three exogenous testosterone (T) treatments: empty implants (T0), small T implants (T1) or larger T implants (T2). We monitored subsequent changes in testosterone levels, ornament size and carotenoid-based colouration, carotenoid levels and body condition from autumn to spring. Testosterone implants increased testosterone levels, comb redness and comb size, and decreased body condition but these effects depended on levels of intra-sexual competition. Specifically, T2-implanted birds increased testosterone levels and comb size more, and reduced body condition more, in populations where intra-sexual competition was low. In the following spring, testosterone levels of T2-treated birds kept increasing in populations where intra-sexual competition was high but not in populations where intra-sexual competition was low. Our results highlight that levels of intra-sexual competition alter the relationship between testosterone levels and ornament expression, influencing their condition-dependence; they also indicate that the outcome of standard hormone manipulation conducted in free-living animals vary depending on the population context. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Life-history tactics: a review of the ideas.

PubMed

Stearns, S C

1976-03-01

This review organizes ideas on the evolution of life histories. The key life-history traits are brood size, size of young, the age distribution of reproductive effort, the interaction of reproductive effort with adult mortality, and the variation in these traits among an individual's progeny. The general theoretical problem is to predict which combinations of traits will evolve in organisms living in specified circumstances. First consider single traits. Theorists have made the following predictions: (1) Where adult exceeds juvenile mortality, the organism should reproduce only once in its lifetime. Where juvenile exceeds adult mortality, the organism should reproduce several times. (2) Brood size should macimize the number of young surviving to maturity, summed over the lifetime of the parent. But when optimum brood-size unpredictably in time, smaller broods should be favored because they decrease the chances of total failure on a given attempt. (3) In expanding populations, selection should minimize age at maturity. In stable populations, when reproductive success depends on size, age, or social status, or when adult exceeds juvenile mortality, then maturation should be delayed, as it should be in declining populations. (4) Young should increase in size at birth with increased predation risk, and decrease in size with increased resource availability. Theorists have also predicted that only particular combinations of traits should occur in specified circumstances. (5) In growing populations, age at maturity should be minimized, reproductive effort concentrated early in life, and brood size increased. (6) One view holds that in stable environments, late maturity, broods, a few, large young, parental care, and small reproductive efforts should be favored (K-selection). In fluctuating environments, early maturity, many small young, reduced parental care, and large reproductive efforts should be favored (r-selection). (7) But another view holds that when juvenile mortality fluctuates more than adult mortality, the traits associated with stable and fluctuating environments should be reversed. We need experiments that test the assumptions and predictions reviewed here, more comprehensive theory that makes more readily falsifiable predictions, and examination of different definitions of fitness.

Demographic collapse and low genetic diversity of the Irrawaddy dolphin population inhabiting the Mekong River

PubMed Central

Beasley, Isabel; Ackermann, Corinne Y.; Lieckfeldt, Dietmar; Ludwig, Arne; Ryan, Gerard E.; Bejder, Lars; Parra, Guido J.; Wolfensberger, Rebekka; Spencer, Peter B. S.

2018-01-01

In threatened wildlife populations, it is important to determine whether observed low genetic diversity may be due to recent anthropogenic pressure or the consequence of historic events. Historical size of the Irrawaddy dolphin (Orcaella brevirostris) population inhabiting the Mekong River is unknown and there is significant concern for long-term survival of the remaining population as a result of low abundance, slow reproduction rate, high neonatal mortality, and continuing anthropogenic threats. We investigated population structure and reconstructed the demographic history based on 60 Irrawaddy dolphins samples collected between 2001 and 2009. The phylogenetic analysis indicated reciprocal monophyly of Mekong River Orcaella haplotypes with respect to haplotypes from other populations, suggesting long-standing isolation of the Mekong dolphin population from other Orcaella populations. We found that at least 85% of all individuals in the two main study areas: Kratie and Stung Treng, bore the same mitochondrial haplotype. Out of the 21 microsatellite loci tested, only ten were polymorphic and exhibited very low levels of genetic diversity. Both individual and frequency-based approaches suggest very low and non-significant genetic differentiation of the Mekong dolphin population. Evidence for recent bottlenecks was equivocal. Some results suggested a recent exponential decline in the Mekong dolphin population, with the current size being only 5.2% of the ancestral population. In order for the Mekong dolphin population to have any potential for long-term survival, it is imperative that management priorities focus on preventing any further population fragmentation or genetic loss, reducing or eliminating anthropogenic threats, and promoting connectivity between all subpopulations. PMID:29298312

Taxonomic and geographic patterns of decline for threatened and endangered species in the United States.

PubMed

Leidner, Allison K; Neel, Maile C

2011-08-01

Species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (i.e., listed species) have declined to the point that the probability of their extinction is high. The decline of these species, however, may manifest itself in different ways, including reductions in geographic range, number of populations, or overall abundance. Understanding the pattern of decline can help managers assess extinction probability and define recovery objectives. Although quantitative data on changes in geographic range, number of populations, and abundance usually do not exist for listed species, more often qualitative data can be obtained. We used qualitative data in recovery plans for federally listed species to determine whether each listed species declined in range size, number of populations, or abundance relative to historical levels. We calculated the proportion of listed species in each state (or equivalent) that declined in each of those ways. Nearly all listed species declined in abundance, and range size or number of populations declined in approximately 80% of species for which those data were available. Patterns of decline, however, differed taxonomically and geographically. Declines in range were more common among vertebrates than plants, whereas population extirpations were more common among plants. Invertebrates had high incidence of range and population declines. Narrowly distributed plants and invertebrates may be subject to acute threats that may result in population extirpations, whereas vertebrates may be affected by chronic threats that reduce the extent and size of populations. Additionally, in the eastern United States and U.S. coastal areas, where the level of land conversion is high, a greater percentage of species' ranges declined and more populations were extirpated than in other areas. Species in the Southwest, especially plants, had fewer range and population declines than other areas. Such relations may help in the selection of species' recovery criteria. © 2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

Effects of temporal fluctuation in population processes of intertidal Lanice conchilega (Pallas, 1766) aggregations on its ecosystem engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alves, Renata M. S.; Vanaverbeke, Jan; Bouma, Tjeerd J.; Guarini, Jean-Marc; Vincx, Magda; Van Colen, Carl

2017-03-01

Ecosystem engineers contribute to ecosystem functioning by regulating key environmental attributes, such as habitat availability and sediment biogeochemistry. While autogenic engineers can increase habitat complexity passively and provide physical protection to other species, allogenic engineers can regulate sediment oxygenation and biogeochemistry through bioturbation and/or bioirrigation. Their effects rely on the physical attributes of the engineer and/or its biogenic constructs, such as abundance and/or size. The present study focused on tube aggregations of a sessile, tube-building polychaete that engineers marine sediments, Lanice conchilega. Its tube aggregations modulate water flow by dissipating energy, influencing sedimentary processes and increasing particle retention. These effects can be influenced by temporal fluctuations in population demographic processes. Presently, we investigated the relationship between population processes and ecosystem engineering through an in-situ survey (1.5 years) of L. conchilega aggregations at the sandy beach of Boulogne-sur-Mer (France). We (1) evaluated temporal patterns in population structure, and (2) investigated how these are related to the ecosystem engineering of L. conchilega on marine sediments. During our survey, we assessed tube density, demographic structure, and sediment properties (surficial chl-a, EPS, TOM, median and mode grain size, sorting, and mud and water content) on a monthly basis for 12 intertidal aggregations. We found that the population was mainly composed by short-lived (6-10 months), small-medium individuals. Mass mortality severely reduced population density during winter. However the population persisted, likely due to recruits from other populations, which are associated to short- and long-term population dynamics. Two periods of recruitment were identified: spring/summer and autumn. Population density was highest during the spring recruitment and significantly affected several environmental properties (i.e. EPS, TOM, mode grain size, mud and water content), suggesting that demographic processes may be responsible for periods of pronounced ecosystem engineering with densities of approx. 30 000 ind·m-2.

Invasive Australian Acacia seed banks: Size and relationship with stem diameter in the presence of gall-forming biological control agents.

PubMed

Strydom, Matthys; Veldtman, Ruan; Ngwenya, Mzabalazo Z; Esler, Karen J

2017-01-01

Australian Acacia are invasive in many parts of the world. Despite significant mechanical and biological efforts to control their invasion and spread, soil-stored seed banks prevent their effective and sustained removal. In response South Africa has had a strong focus on employing seed reducing biological control agents to deal with Australian Acacia invasion, a programme that is considered as being successful. To provide a predictive understanding for their management, seed banks of four invasive Australian acacia species (Acacia longifolia, A. mearnsii, A. pycnantha and A. saligna) were studied in the Western Cape of South Africa. Across six to seven sites for each species, seed bank sizes were estimated from dense, monospecific stands by collecting 30 litter and soil samples. Average estimated seed bank size was large (1017 to 17261 seed m-2) as was annual input into the seed bank, suggesting that these seed banks are not residual but are replenished in size annually. A clear relationship between seed bank size and stem diameter was established indicating that mechanical clearing should be conducted shortly after fire-stimulated recruitment events or within old populations when seed banks are small. In dense, monospecific stands seed-feeding biological control agents are not effective in reducing seed bank size.

Determining size and dispersion of minimum viable populations for land management planning and species conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehmkuhl, John F.

1984-03-01

The concept of minimum populations of wildlife and plants has only recently been discussed in the literature. Population genetics has emerged as a basic underlying criterion for determining minimum population size. This paper presents a genetic framework and procedure for determining minimum viable population size and dispersion strategies in the context of multiple-use land management planning. A procedure is presented for determining minimum population size based on maintenance of genetic heterozygosity and reduction of inbreeding. A minimum effective population size ( N e ) of 50 breeding animals is taken from the literature as the minimum shortterm size to keep inbreeding below 1% per generation. Steps in the procedure adjust N e to account for variance in progeny number, unequal sex ratios, overlapping generations, population fluctuations, and period of habitat/population constraint. The result is an approximate census number that falls within a range of effective population size of 50 500 individuals. This population range defines the time range of short- to long-term population fitness and evolutionary potential. The length of the term is a relative function of the species generation time. Two population dispersion strategies are proposed: core population and dispersed population.

Alternative Models for Small Samples in Psychological Research: Applying Linear Mixed Effects Models and Generalized Estimating Equations to Repeated Measures Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muth, Chelsea; Bales, Karen L.; Hinde, Katie; Maninger, Nicole; Mendoza, Sally P.; Ferrer, Emilio

2016-01-01

Unavoidable sample size issues beset psychological research that involves scarce populations or costly laboratory procedures. When incorporating longitudinal designs these samples are further reduced by traditional modeling techniques, which perform listwise deletion for any instance of missing data. Moreover, these techniques are limited in their…

Black raspberry fruit composition over two years from seedling populations grown at four U.S. geographic locations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Black raspberry is a caneberry fruit recognized as a source of several phytoactive compounds. Fruit are most often used for processed products. As a specialty crop, black raspberry production is limited by its susceptibility to viruses, which reduce fruit size and yield and can kill the plant in a...

U. of Chicago's President's Plan To Resign Doesn't Quiet Debate Over His Agenda.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gose, Ben

1999-01-01

Although the president of the University of Chicago (Illinois) has resigned, the controversy over his planned changes for the institution has not abated. Proposed changes include reducing the number of core curriculum courses and expanding the size of the undergraduate population. Faculty, students, and prominent scholars are calling for improved…

The impact of self-incompatibility systems on the prevention of biparental inbreeding

PubMed Central

Furstenau, Tara N.

2017-01-01

Inbreeding in hermaphroditic plants can occur through two different mechanisms: biparental inbreeding, when a plant mates with a related individual, or self-fertilization, when a plant mates with itself. To avoid inbreeding, many hermaphroditic plants have evolved self-incompatibility (SI) systems which prevent or limit self-fertilization. One particular SI system—homomorphic SI—can also reduce biparental inbreeding. Homomorphic SI is found in many angiosperm species, and it is often assumed that the additional benefit of reduced biparental inbreeding may be a factor in the success of this SI system. To test this assumption, we developed a spatially-explicit, individual-based simulation of plant populations that displayed three different types of homomorphic SI. We measured the total level of inbreeding avoidance by comparing each population to a self-compatible population (NSI), and we measured biparental inbreeding avoidance by comparing to a population of self-incompatible plants that were free to mate with any other individual (PSI). Because biparental inbreeding is more common when offspring dispersal is limited, we examined the levels of biparental inbreeding over a range of dispersal distances. We also tested whether the introduction of inbreeding depression affected the level of biparental inbreeding avoidance. We found that there was a statistically significant decrease in autozygosity in each of the homomorphic SI populations compared to the PSI population and, as expected, this was more pronounced when seed and pollen dispersal was limited. However, levels of homozygosity and inbreeding depression were not reduced. At low dispersal, homomorphic SI populations also suffered reduced female fecundity and had smaller census population sizes. Overall, our simulations showed that the homomorphic SI systems had little impact on the amount of biparental inbreeding in the population especially when compared to the overall reduction in inbreeding compared to the NSI population. With further study, this observation may have important consequences for research into the origin and evolution of homomorphic self-incompatibility systems. PMID:29188143

The decision-making process for senior cancer patients: treatment allocation of older women with operable breast cancer in the UK.

PubMed

Morgan, Jenna L; Richards, Paul; Zaman, Osama; Ward, Sue; Collins, Karen; Robinson, Thompson; Cheung, Kwok-Leung; Audisio, Riccardo A; Reed, Malcolm W; Wyld, Lynda

2015-12-01

Up to 40% of women over 70 years with primary operable breast cancer in the UK are treated with primary endocrine therapy (PET) as an alternative to surgery. A variety of factors are important in determining treatment for older breast cancer patients. This study aimed to identify the patient and tumor factors associated with treatment allocation in this population. Prospectively collected data on treatment received (surgery vs. PET) were analysed with multivariable logistic regression using the variables age, modified Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), activities of daily living (ADL) score, Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score, HER2 status, tumour size, grade and nodal status. Data were available for 1,122 cancers in 1,098 patients recruited between February 2013 and June 2015 from 51 UK hospitals. About 78% of the population were treated surgically, with the remainder being treated with PET. Increasing patient age at diagnosis, increasing CCI score, large tumor size (5 cm or more) and dependence in one or more ADL categories were all strongly associated with non-surgical treatment (P<0.05). Increasing comorbidity, large tumor size and reduced functional ability are associated with reduced likelihood of surgical treatment of breast cancer in older patients. However, age itself remains a significant factor for non-surgical treatment; reinforcing the need for evidence-based guidelines.

Demographic and genetic viability of a medium-sized ground-dwelling mammal in a fire prone, rapidly urbanizing landscape.

PubMed

Ramalho, Cristina E; Ottewell, Kym M; Chambers, Brian K; Yates, Colin J; Wilson, Barbara A; Bencini, Roberta; Barrett, Geoff

2018-01-01

The rapid and large-scale urbanization of peri-urban areas poses major and complex challenges for wildlife conservation. We used population viability analysis (PVA) to evaluate the influence of urban encroachment, fire, and fauna crossing structures, with and without accounting for inbreeding effects, on the metapopulation viability of a medium-sized ground-dwelling mammal, the southern brown bandicoot (Isoodon obesulus), in the rapidly expanding city of Perth, Australia. We surveyed two metapopulations over one and a half years, and parameterized the PVA models using largely field-collected data. The models revealed that spatial isolation imposed by housing and road encroachment has major impacts on I. obesulus. Although the species is known to persist in small metapopulations at moderate levels of habitat fragmentation, the models indicate that these populations become highly vulnerable to demographic decline, genetic deterioration, and local extinction under increasing habitat connectivity loss. Isolated metapopulations were also predicted to be highly sensitive to fire, with large-scale fires having greater negative impacts on population abundance than small-scale ones. To reduce the risk of decline and local extirpation of I. obesulus and other small- to medium-sized ground-dwelling mammals in urbanizing, fire prone landscapes, we recommend that remnant vegetation and vegetated, structurally-complex corridors between habitat patches be retained. Well-designed road underpasses can be effective to connect habitat patches and reduce the probability of inbreeding and genetic differentiation; however, adjustment of fire management practices to limit the size of unplanned fires and ensure the retention of long unburnt vegetation will also be required to ensure persistence. Our study supports the evidence that in rapidly urbanizing landscapes, a pro-active conservation approach is required that manages species at the metapopulation level and that prioritizes metapopulations and habitat with greater long-term probability of persistence and conservation capacity, respectively. This strategy may help us prevent future declines and local extirpations, and currently relatively common species from becoming rare.

Coral population dynamics across consecutive mass mortality events.

PubMed

Riegl, Bernhard; Purkis, Sam

2015-11-01

Annual coral mortality events due to increased atmospheric heat may occur regularly from the middle of the century and are considered apocalyptic for coral reefs. In the Arabian/Persian Gulf, this situation has already occurred and population dynamics of four widespread corals (Acropora downingi, Porites harrisoni, Dipsastrea pallida, Cyphastrea micropthalma) were examined across the first-ever occurrence of four back-to-back mass mortality events (2009-2012). Mortality was driven by diseases in 2009, bleaching and subsequent diseases in 2010/2011/2012. 2009 reduced P. harrisoni cover and size, the other events increasingly reduced overall cover (2009: -10%; 2010: -20%; 2011: -20%; 2012: -15%) and affected all examined species. Regeneration was only observed after the first disturbance. P. harrisoni and A. downingi severely declined from 2010 due to bleaching and subsequent white syndromes, while D. pallida and P. daedalea declined from 2011 due to bleaching and black-band disease. C. microphthalma cover was not affected. In all species, most large corals were lost while fission due to partial tissue mortality bolstered small size classes. This general shrinkage led to a decrease of coral cover and a dramatic reduction of fecundity. Transition matrices for disturbed and undisturbed conditions were evaluated as Life Table Response Experiment and showed that C. microphthalma changed the least in size-class dynamics and fecundity, suggesting they were 'winners'. In an ordered 'degradation cascade', impacts decreased from the most common to the least common species, leading to step-wise removal of previously dominant species. A potentially permanent shift from high- to low-coral cover with different coral community and size structure can be expected due to the demographic dynamics resultant from the disturbances. Similarities to degradation of other Caribbean and Pacific reefs are discussed. As comparable environmental conditions and mortality patterns must be expected worldwide, demographic collapse of many other coral populations may soon be widespread. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Demographic and genetic viability of a medium-sized ground-dwelling mammal in a fire prone, rapidly urbanizing landscape

PubMed Central

Ottewell, Kym M.; Chambers, Brian K.; Yates, Colin J.; Wilson, Barbara A.; Bencini, Roberta; Barrett, Geoff

2018-01-01

The rapid and large-scale urbanization of peri-urban areas poses major and complex challenges for wildlife conservation. We used population viability analysis (PVA) to evaluate the influence of urban encroachment, fire, and fauna crossing structures, with and without accounting for inbreeding effects, on the metapopulation viability of a medium-sized ground-dwelling mammal, the southern brown bandicoot (Isoodon obesulus), in the rapidly expanding city of Perth, Australia. We surveyed two metapopulations over one and a half years, and parameterized the PVA models using largely field-collected data. The models revealed that spatial isolation imposed by housing and road encroachment has major impacts on I. obesulus. Although the species is known to persist in small metapopulations at moderate levels of habitat fragmentation, the models indicate that these populations become highly vulnerable to demographic decline, genetic deterioration, and local extinction under increasing habitat connectivity loss. Isolated metapopulations were also predicted to be highly sensitive to fire, with large-scale fires having greater negative impacts on population abundance than small-scale ones. To reduce the risk of decline and local extirpation of I. obesulus and other small- to medium-sized ground-dwelling mammals in urbanizing, fire prone landscapes, we recommend that remnant vegetation and vegetated, structurally-complex corridors between habitat patches be retained. Well-designed road underpasses can be effective to connect habitat patches and reduce the probability of inbreeding and genetic differentiation; however, adjustment of fire management practices to limit the size of unplanned fires and ensure the retention of long unburnt vegetation will also be required to ensure persistence. Our study supports the evidence that in rapidly urbanizing landscapes, a pro-active conservation approach is required that manages species at the metapopulation level and that prioritizes metapopulations and habitat with greater long-term probability of persistence and conservation capacity, respectively. This strategy may help us prevent future declines and local extirpations, and currently relatively common species from becoming rare. PMID:29444118

Tree Size Inequality Reduces Forest Productivity: An Analysis Combining Inventory Data for Ten European Species and a Light Competition Model.

PubMed

Bourdier, Thomas; Cordonnier, Thomas; Kunstler, Georges; Piedallu, Christian; Lagarrigues, Guillaume; Courbaud, Benoit

2016-01-01

Plant structural diversity is usually considered as beneficial for ecosystem functioning. For instance, numerous studies have reported positive species diversity-productivity relationships in plant communities. However, other aspects of structural diversity such as individual size inequality have been far less investigated. In forests, tree size inequality impacts directly tree growth and asymmetric competition, but consequences on forest productivity are still indeterminate. In addition, the effect of tree size inequality on productivity is likely to vary with species shade-tolerance, a key ecological characteristic controlling asymmetric competition and light resource acquisition. Using plot data from the French National Geographic Agency, we studied the response of stand productivity to size inequality for ten forest species differing in shade tolerance. We fitted a basal area stand production model that included abiotic factors, stand density, stand development stage and a tree size inequality index. Then, using a forest dynamics model we explored whether mechanisms of light interception and light use efficiency could explain the tree size inequality effect observed for three of the ten species studied. Size inequality negatively affected basal area increment for seven out of the ten species investigated. However, this effect was not related to the shade tolerance of these species. According to the model simulations, the negative tree size inequality effect could result both from reduced total stand light interception and reduced light use efficiency. Our results demonstrate that negative relationships between size inequality and productivity may be the rule in tree populations. The lack of effect of shade tolerance indicates compensatory mechanisms between effect on light availability and response to light availability. Such a pattern deserves further investigations for mixed forests where complementarity effects between species are involved. When studying the effect of structural diversity on ecosystem productivity, tree size inequality is a major facet that should be taken into account.

Managing a subsidized predator population: Reducing common raven predation on desert tortoises

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boarman, W.I.

2003-01-01

Human communities often are an inadvertent source of food, water, and other resources to native species of wildlife. Because these resources are more stable and predictable than those in a natural environment, animals that subsist on them are able to increase in numbers and expand their range, much to the detriment of their competitors and species they prey upon. In the Mojave Desert, common ravens (Corvus corax) have benefited from human-provided resources to increase in population size precipitously in recent years. This trend has caused concern because ravens prey on juvenile desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii), a federally threatened species. In this paper, I discuss management strategies to reduce raven predation on desert tortoises. The recommendations fall into three categories: (1) managing raven populations by reducing access to anthropogenic resources; (2) removing offending ravens or other birds in specially targeted tortoise management zones; and (3) continuing research on raven ecology, raven behavior, and methods of reducing raven predation on tortoises. I also recommend approaching the problem within an adaptive management framework: management efforts should first be employed as scientific experiments - with replicates and controls - to yield an unbiased assessment of their effectiveness. Furthermore, these strategies should be implemented in concert with actions that reduce other causes of desert tortoise mortality to aid the long-term recovery of their populations. Overall, the approaches outlined in this paper are widely applicable to the management of subsidized predators, particularly where they present a threat to a declining species of prey.

The effects of habitat fragmentation on the social kin structure and mating system of the agile antechinus, Antechinus agilis.

PubMed

Banks, S C; Ward, S J; Lindenmayer, D B; Finlayson, G R; Lawson, S J; Taylor, A C

2005-05-01

Habitat fragmentation is one of the major contributors to the loss of biodiversity worldwide. However, relatively little is known about its more immediate impacts on within-patch population processes such as social structure and mating systems, whose alteration may play an important role in extinction risk. We investigated the impacts of habitat fragmentation due to the establishment of an exotic softwood plantation on the social kin structure and breeding system of the Australian marsupial carnivore, Antechinus agilis. Restricted dispersal by males in fragmented habitat resulted in elevated relatedness among potential mates in populations in fragments, potentially increasing the risk of inbreeding. Antechinus agilis nests communally in tree hollows; these nests are important points for social contact between males and females in the mating season. In response to elevated relatedness among potential mates in fragmented habitat, A. agilis significantly avoided sharing nests with opposite-sex relatives in large fragment sites (but not in small ones, possibly due to limited nest locations and small population sizes). Because opposite-sex individuals shared nests randomly with respect to relatedness in unfragmented habitat, we interpreted the phenomenon in fragmented habitat as a precursor to inbreeding avoidance via mate choice. Despite evidence that female A. agilis at high inbreeding risk selected relatively unrelated mates, there was no overall increased avoidance of related mates by females in fragmented habitats compared to unfragmented habitats. Simulations indicated that only dispersal, and not nonrandom mating, contributed to inbreeding avoidance in either habitat context. However, habitat fragmentation did influence the mating system in that the degree of multiple paternity was reduced due to the reduction in population sizes and population connectivity. This, in turn, reduced the number of males available to females in the breeding season. This suggests that in addition to the obvious impacts of reduced recruitment, patch recolonization and increased genetic drift, the isolation of populations in habitat patches may cause changes in breeding behaviour that contribute to the negative impacts of habitat fragmentation.

A Theoretical Lower Bound for Selection on the Expression Levels of Proteins

DOE PAGES

Price, Morgan N.; Arkin, Adam P.

2016-06-11

We use simple models of the costs and benefits of microbial gene expression to show that changing a protein's expression away from its optimum by 2-fold should reduce fitness by at least [Formula: see text], where P is the fraction the cell's protein that the gene accounts for. As microbial genes are usually expressed at above 5 parts per million, and effective population sizes are likely to be above 10(6), this implies that 2-fold changes to gene expression levels are under strong selection, as [Formula: see text], where Ne is the effective population size and s is the selection coefficient.more » Thus, most gene duplications should be selected against. On the other hand, we predict that for most genes, small changes in the expression will be effectively neutral.« less

A Theoretical Lower Bound for Selection on the Expression Levels of Proteins

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Price, Morgan N.; Arkin, Adam P.

We use simple models of the costs and benefits of microbial gene expression to show that changing a protein's expression away from its optimum by 2-fold should reduce fitness by at least [Formula: see text], where P is the fraction the cell's protein that the gene accounts for. As microbial genes are usually expressed at above 5 parts per million, and effective population sizes are likely to be above 10(6), this implies that 2-fold changes to gene expression levels are under strong selection, as [Formula: see text], where Ne is the effective population size and s is the selection coefficient.more » Thus, most gene duplications should be selected against. On the other hand, we predict that for most genes, small changes in the expression will be effectively neutral.« less

Landscape attributes and life history variability shape genetic structure of trout populations in a stream network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neville, H.M.; Dunham, J.B.; Peacock, M.M.

2006-01-01

Spatial and temporal landscape patterns have long been recognized to influence biological processes, but these processes often operate at scales that are difficult to study by conventional means. Inferences from genetic markers can overcome some of these limitations. We used a landscape genetics approach to test hypotheses concerning landscape processes influencing the demography of Lahontan cutthroat trout in a complex stream network in the Great Basin desert of the western US. Predictions were tested with population- and individual-based analyses of microsatellite DNA variation, reflecting patterns of dispersal, population stability, and local effective population sizes. Complementary genetic inferences suggested samples from migratory corridors housed a mixture of fish from tributaries, as predicted based on assumed migratory life histories in those habitats. Also as predicted, populations presumed to have greater proportions of migratory fish or from physically connected, large, or high quality habitats had higher genetic variability and reduced genetic differentiation from other populations. Populations thought to contain largely non-migratory individuals generally showed the opposite pattern, suggesting behavioral isolation. Estimated effective sizes were small, and we identified significant and severe genetic bottlenecks in several populations that were isolated, recently founded, or that inhabit streams that desiccate frequently. Overall, this work suggested that Lahontan cutthroat trout populations in stream networks are affected by a combination of landscape and metapopulation processes. Results also demonstrated that genetic patterns can reveal unexpected processes, even within a system that is well studied from a conventional ecological perspective. ?? Springer 2006.

Modeling the impact of the indigenous microbial population on the maximum population density of Salmonella on alfalfa.

PubMed

Rijgersberg, Hajo; Franz, Eelco; Nierop Groot, Masja; Tromp, Seth-Oscar

2013-07-01

Within a microbial risk assessment framework, modeling the maximum population density (MPD) of a pathogenic microorganism is important but often not considered. This paper describes a model predicting the MPD of Salmonella on alfalfa as a function of the initial contamination level, the total count of the indigenous microbial population, the maximum pathogen growth rate and the maximum population density of the indigenous microbial population. The model is parameterized by experimental data describing growth of Salmonella on sprouting alfalfa seeds at inoculum size, native microbial load and Pseudomonas fluorescens 2-79. The obtained model fits well to the experimental data, with standard errors less than ten percent of the fitted average values. The results show that the MPD of Salmonella is not only dictated by performance characteristics of Salmonella but depends on the characteristics of the indigenous microbial population like total number of cells and its growth rate. The model can improve the predictions of microbiological growth in quantitative microbial risk assessments. Using this model, the effects of preventive measures to reduce pathogenic load and a concurrent effect on the background population can be better evaluated. If competing microorganisms are more sensitive to a particular decontamination method, a pathogenic microorganism may grow faster and reach a higher level. More knowledge regarding the effect of the indigenous microbial population (size, diversity, composition) of food products on pathogen dynamics is needed in order to make adequate predictions of pathogen dynamics on various food products.

Population demographics and genetic diversity in remnant and translocated populations of sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, James L.; Ballachey, Brenda E.; Cronin, M.A.; Scribner, K.T.

1999-01-01

The effects of small population size on genetic diversity and subsequent population recovery are theoretically predicted, but few empirical data are available to describe those relations. We use data from four remnant and three translocated sea otter (Enhydra lutris) populations to examine relations among magnitude and duration of minimum population size, population growth rates, and genetic variation. Metochondrial (mt)DNA haplotype diversity was correlated with the number of years at minimum population size (r = -0.741, p = 0.038) and minimum population size (r = 0.709, p = 0.054). We found no relation between population growth and haplotype diversity, altough growth was significantly greater in translocated than in remnant populations. Haplotype diversity in populations established from two sources was higher than in a population established from a single source and was higher than in the respective source populations. Haplotype frequencies in translocated populations of founding sizes of 4 and 28 differed from expected, indicating genetic drift and differential reproduction between source populations, whereas haplotype frequencies in a translocated population with a founding size of 150 did not. Relations between population demographics and genetic characteristics suggest that genetic sampling of source and translocated populations can provide valuable inferences about translocations.

Evidence for r- and K-selection in a wild bird population: a reciprocal link between ecology and evolution.

PubMed

Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Visser, Marcel E; Grøtan, Vidar; Engen, Steinar

2016-04-27

Understanding the variation in selection pressure on key life-history traits is crucial in our rapidly changing world. Density is rarely considered as a selective agent. To study its importance, we partition phenotypic selection in fluctuating environments into components representing the population growth rate at low densities and the strength of density dependence, using a new stochastic modelling framework. We analysed the number of eggs laid per season in a small song-bird, the great tit, and found balancing selection favouring large clutch sizes at small population densities and smaller clutches in years with large populations. A significant interaction between clutch size and population size in the regression for the Malthusian fitness reveals that those females producing large clutch sizes at small population sizes also are those that show the strongest reduction in fitness when population size is increased. This provides empirical support for ongoing r- and K-selection in this population, favouring phenotypes with large growth rates r at small population sizes and phenotypes with high competitive skills when populations are close to the carrying capacity K This selection causes long-term fluctuations around a stable mean clutch size caused by variation in population size, implying that r- and K-selection is an important mechanism influencing phenotypic evolution in fluctuating environments. This provides a general link between ecological dynamics and evolutionary processes, operating through a joint influence of density dependence and environmental stochasticity on fluctuations in population size. © 2016 The Author(s).

Comparing the Performance of NoSQL Approaches for Managing Archetype-Based Electronic Health Record Data

PubMed Central

Freire, Sergio Miranda; Teodoro, Douglas; Wei-Kleiner, Fang; Sundvall, Erik; Karlsson, Daniel; Lambrix, Patrick

2016-01-01

This study provides an experimental performance evaluation on population-based queries of NoSQL databases storing archetype-based Electronic Health Record (EHR) data. There are few published studies regarding the performance of persistence mechanisms for systems that use multilevel modelling approaches, especially when the focus is on population-based queries. A healthcare dataset with 4.2 million records stored in a relational database (MySQL) was used to generate XML and JSON documents based on the openEHR reference model. Six datasets with different sizes were created from these documents and imported into three single machine XML databases (BaseX, eXistdb and Berkeley DB XML) and into a distributed NoSQL database system based on the MapReduce approach, Couchbase, deployed in different cluster configurations of 1, 2, 4, 8 and 12 machines. Population-based queries were submitted to those databases and to the original relational database. Database size and query response times are presented. The XML databases were considerably slower and required much more space than Couchbase. Overall, Couchbase had better response times than MySQL, especially for larger datasets. However, Couchbase requires indexing for each differently formulated query and the indexing time increases with the size of the datasets. The performances of the clusters with 2, 4, 8 and 12 nodes were not better than the single node cluster in relation to the query response time, but the indexing time was reduced proportionally to the number of nodes. The tested XML databases had acceptable performance for openEHR-based data in some querying use cases and small datasets, but were generally much slower than Couchbase. Couchbase also outperformed the response times of the relational database, but required more disk space and had a much longer indexing time. Systems like Couchbase are thus interesting research targets for scalable storage and querying of archetype-based EHR data when population-based use cases are of interest. PMID:26958859

Comparing the Performance of NoSQL Approaches for Managing Archetype-Based Electronic Health Record Data.

PubMed

Freire, Sergio Miranda; Teodoro, Douglas; Wei-Kleiner, Fang; Sundvall, Erik; Karlsson, Daniel; Lambrix, Patrick

2016-01-01

This study provides an experimental performance evaluation on population-based queries of NoSQL databases storing archetype-based Electronic Health Record (EHR) data. There are few published studies regarding the performance of persistence mechanisms for systems that use multilevel modelling approaches, especially when the focus is on population-based queries. A healthcare dataset with 4.2 million records stored in a relational database (MySQL) was used to generate XML and JSON documents based on the openEHR reference model. Six datasets with different sizes were created from these documents and imported into three single machine XML databases (BaseX, eXistdb and Berkeley DB XML) and into a distributed NoSQL database system based on the MapReduce approach, Couchbase, deployed in different cluster configurations of 1, 2, 4, 8 and 12 machines. Population-based queries were submitted to those databases and to the original relational database. Database size and query response times are presented. The XML databases were considerably slower and required much more space than Couchbase. Overall, Couchbase had better response times than MySQL, especially for larger datasets. However, Couchbase requires indexing for each differently formulated query and the indexing time increases with the size of the datasets. The performances of the clusters with 2, 4, 8 and 12 nodes were not better than the single node cluster in relation to the query response time, but the indexing time was reduced proportionally to the number of nodes. The tested XML databases had acceptable performance for openEHR-based data in some querying use cases and small datasets, but were generally much slower than Couchbase. Couchbase also outperformed the response times of the relational database, but required more disk space and had a much longer indexing time. Systems like Couchbase are thus interesting research targets for scalable storage and querying of archetype-based EHR data when population-based use cases are of interest.

Fitness cost of incubation in great tits (Parus major) is related to clutch size

PubMed Central

de Heij, Maaike E; van den Hout, Piet J; Tinbergen, Joost M

2006-01-01

Life-history theory predicts that parents produce the number of offspring that maximizes their fitness. In birds, natural selection on parental decisions regarding clutch size may act during egg laying, incubation or nestling phase. To study the fitness consequences of clutch size during the incubation phase, we manipulated the clutch sizes during this phase only in three breeding seasons and measured the fitness consequences on the short and the long term. Clutch enlargement did not affect the offspring fitness of the manipulated first clutches, but fledging probability of the subsequent clutch in the same season was reduced. Parents incubating enlarged first clutches provided adequate care for the offspring of their first clutches during the nestling phase, but paid the price when caring for the offspring of their second clutch. Parents that incubated enlarged first clutches had lower local survival in the 2 years when the population had a relatively high production of second clutches, but not in the third year when there was a very low production of second clutches. During these 2 years, the costs of incubation were strong enough to change positive selection, as established by brood size manipulations in this study population, into stabilizing selection through the negative effect of incubation on parental fitness. PMID:16928638

Using Agent-Based Modelling to Predict the Role of Wild Refugia in the Evolution of Resistance of Sea Lice to Chemotherapeutants

PubMed Central

McEwan, Gregor F.; Groner, Maya L.; Fast, Mark D.; Revie, Crawford W.

2015-01-01

A major challenge for Atlantic salmon farming in the northern hemisphere is infestation by the sea louse parasite Lepeophtheirus salmonis. The most frequent method of controlling these sea louse infestations is through the use of chemical treatments. However, most major salmon farming areas have observed resistance to common chemotherapeutants. In terrestrial environments, many strategies employed to manage the evolution of resistance involve the use of refugia, where a portion of the population is left untreated to maintain susceptibility. While refugia have not been deliberately used in Atlantic salmon farming, wild salmon populations that migrate close to salmon farms may act as natural refugia. In this paper we describe an agent-based model that explores the influence of different sizes of wild salmon populations on resistance evolution in sea lice on a salmon farm. Using the model, we demonstrate that wild salmon populations can act as refugia that limit the evolution of resistance in the sea louse populations. Additionally, we demonstrate that an increase in the size of the population of wild salmon results in an increased effect in slowing the evolution of resistance. We explore the effect of a population fitness cost associated with resistance, finding that in some cases it substantially reduces the speed of evolution to chemical treatments. PMID:26485023

Patterns of Genetic Coding Variation in a Native American Population before and after European Contact.

PubMed

Lindo, John; Rogers, Mary; Mallott, Elizabeth K; Petzelt, Barbara; Mitchell, Joycelynn; Archer, David; Cybulski, Jerome S; Malhi, Ripan S; DeGiorgio, Michael

2018-05-03

The effects of European colonization on the genomes of Native Americans may have produced excesses of potentially deleterious features, mainly due to the severe reductions in population size and corresponding losses of genetic diversity. This assumption, however, neither considers actual genomic patterns that existed before colonization nor does it adequately capture the effects of admixture. In this study, we analyze the whole-exome sequences of modern and ancient individuals from a Northwest Coast First Nation, with a demographic history similar to other indigenous populations from the Americas. We show that in approximately ten generations from initial European contact, the modern individuals exhibit reduced levels of novel and low-frequency variants, a lower proportion of potentially deleterious alleles, and decreased heterozygosity when compared to their ancestors. This pattern can be explained by a dramatic population decline, resulting in the loss of potentially damaging low-frequency variants, and subsequent admixture. We also find evidence that the indigenous population was on a steady decline in effective population size for several thousand years before contact, which emphasizes regional demography over the common conception of a uniform expansion after entry into the Americas. This study examines the genomic consequences of colonialism on an indigenous group and describes the continuing role of gene flow among modern populations. Copyright © 2018 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Survival, growth, and localization of epiphytic fitness mutants of pseudomonas syringae on leaves

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beattie, G.A.; Lindow, S.E.

Among 82 epiphytic fitness mutants of a Pseudomonas syringae pv. syringae strain that were characterized in a previous study, 4 mutants were particularly intolerant of the stresses associated with dry leaf surfaces. These four mutants each exhibited distinctive behaviors when inoculated into and into plant leaves. For example, while non showed measurable growth on dry potato leaf surfaces, they grew to different population sizes in the intercellular space of bean leaves and on dry bean leaf surfaces, and one mutant appeared incapable of growth in both environments although it grew well on moist bean leaves. The presence of the parentalmore » strain did not influence the survival of the mutants immediately following exposure of leaves to dry, high-light incubation conditions, suggesting that the reduced survival of the mutants did not result from an inability to produce extracellular factors in planta. On moist bean leaves that were colonized by either a mutant or the wild type, the proportion of the total epiphytic population that was located in sizes protected from a surface sterilant was smaller for the mutants than for the wild type, indicating that the mutants were reduced in their ability to locate, multiply in, and/or survive in such protected sites. This reduced ability was only one of possible several factors contributing to the reduced epiphytic fitness of each mutant. Their reduced fitness was not specific to the host plant bean, since they also exhibited reduced fitness on the nonhost plant potato; the functions altered in these strains are thus of interest for their contribution to the general fitness of bacterial epiphytes. 52 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.« less

Review of behaviour change interventions to reduce population salt intake.

PubMed

Trieu, Kathy; McMahon, Emma; Santos, Joseph Alvin; Bauman, Adrian; Jolly, Kellie-Ann; Bolam, Bruce; Webster, Jacqui

2017-02-08

Excess salt intake is a major cause of raised blood pressure-the leading risk factor for death and disability worldwide. Although behaviour change interventions such as awareness campaigns and health education programs are implemented to reduce salt intake, their effectiveness is unclear. This global systematic review investigates the impact of population-level behaviour change interventions that aim to reduce salt intake. A search for published and grey literature was conducted using PubMed, Cochrane Library, Embase, Web of Science, Sage, Scopus, OpenGrey, Google Scholar and other relevant organizations' websites. Studies were included if 1) published between 2005 and 2015; 2) the education or awareness-raising interventions were aimed at the population or sub-population and 3) salt intake and/or salt-related behaviours were outcome measures. Study and intervention characteristics were extracted for the descriptive synthesis and study quality was assessed. Twenty two studies involving 41,448 participants were included. Most were conducted in high income countries (n = 16), targeting adults (n = 21) in the general population (n = 16). Behaviour change interventions were categorised as health education interventions (n = 14), public awareness campaigns (n = 4) and multi-component interventions (including both health education and awareness campaigns, n = 4). 19 of the 22 studies demonstrated significant reductions in estimated salt intake and/or improvement in salt-related behaviours. All studies showed high risk of bias in one or more domains. Of the 10 higher quality studies, 5 found a significant effect on salt intake or salt behaviours based on the more objective outcome assessment method. Based on moderate quality of evidence, population-level behaviour change interventions can improve salt-related behaviours and/or reduce salt intake. However, closer analysis of higher quality studies show inconsistent evidence of the effectiveness and limited effect sizes suggest the implementation of education and awareness-raising interventions alone are unlikely to be adequate in reducing population salt intake to the recommended levels. A framework which guides rigorous research and evaluation of population-level interventions in real-world settings would help understand and support more effective implementation of interventions to reduce salt intake.

Towards a Solution to the Goose-Agriculture Conflict in North Norway, 1988–2012: The Interplay between Policy, Stakeholder Influence and Goose Population Dynamics

PubMed Central

Tombre, Ingunn M.; Eythórsson, Einar; Madsen, Jesper

2013-01-01

This paper presents results from a multidisciplinary study of a negotiation process between farmers and wildlife authorities which led to an agricultural subsidy scheme to alleviate conflicts between agriculture and geese in Norway. The Svalbard-breeding population of pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus has increased considerably over the last decades and conflicts with farmers have escalated, especially at stopover sites in spring when geese feed on newly sprouted pasture grass. In Vesterålen, an important stopover site for geese in North Norway, farmers deployed scaring of geese at varying intensity dependent on the level of conflict during 1988–2012. We assessed the efficiency of a subsidy scheme established in 2006, in terms of its conflict mitigation, reflected in a near discontinuation of scaring activities. The presence of pink-footed geese was analysed in relation to scaring intensity, the total goose population size and the increasing occurrence of another goose species, the barnacle goose Branta leucopsis. Scaring significantly affected the number of geese staging in Vesterålen, both in absolute and relative terms (controlling for total population size). The geese responded immediately to an increased, and reduced, level of scaring. Despite the establishment of the subsidy scheme, the number of pink-footed geese has recently declined which is probably caused by the increasing number of barnacle geese. For the farmers, the subsidy scheme provides funding that reduces the economic costs caused by the geese. Sustaining a low level of conflict will require close monitoring, dialogue and adaptation of the subsidy scheme to cater for changes in goose population dynamics. PMID:23977175

Dispersal Timing: Emigration of Insects Living in Patchy Environments.

PubMed

Lakovic, Milica; Poethke, Hans-Joachim; Hovestadt, Thomas

2015-01-01

Dispersal is a life-history trait affecting dynamics and persistence of populations; it evolves under various known selective pressures. Theoretical studies on dispersal typically assume 'natal dispersal', where individuals emigrate right after birth. But emigration may also occur during a later moment within a reproductive season ('breeding dispersal'). For example, some female butterflies first deposit eggs in their natal patch before migrating to other site(s) to continue egg-laying there. How breeding compared to natal dispersal influences the evolution of dispersal has not been explored. To close this gap we used an individual-based simulation approach to analyze (i) the evolution of timing of breeding dispersal in annual organisms, (ii) its influence on dispersal (compared to natal dispersal). Furthermore, we tested (iii) its performance in direct evolutionary contest with individuals following a natal dispersal strategy. Our results show that evolution should typically result in lower dispersal under breeding dispersal, especially when costs of dispersal are low and population size is small. By distributing offspring evenly across two patches, breeding dispersal allows reducing direct sibling competition in the next generation whereas natal dispersal can only reduce trans-generational kin competition by producing highly dispersive offspring in each generation. The added benefit of breeding dispersal is most prominent in patches with small population sizes. Finally, the evolutionary contests show that a breeding dispersal strategy would universally out-compete natal dispersal.

AIDS vaccines that allow HIV-1 to infect and escape immunologic control: a mathematic analysis of mass vaccination.

PubMed

van Ballegooijen, Marijn; Bogaards, Johannes A; Weverling, Gerrit-Jan; Boerlijst, Maarten C; Goudsmit, Jaap

2003-10-01

Cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL)-based HIV vaccine concepts shown to reduce viremia and postpone disease but not to prevent infection in monkeys are currently in human phase 1 trials. To evaluate the potential efficacy of vaccines that cannot prevent HIV-1 to infect and escape immunologic control, we designed a mathematic model that correlates the level of viremia to both infectiousness and disease progression. We speculate that vaccinees will have a virologic set point and disease progression rates comparable to untreated HIV-1-infected individuals with the best prognosis. Our model (illustrated with R0 = 3) shows that a sexually active population can ultimately be reduced to 26% of its initial size as a result of AIDS-related mortality in the absence of treatment or vaccination. Start of vaccination when HIV-1 prevalence is still low might postpone the peak incidence of infection and the dramatic decline in population size by up to 22 years. In conclusion, CTL-based vaccines that do not prevent HIV-1 infection but do postpone the time to onset of AIDS have considerable potential to curb the spread of HIV-1 and to postpone high AIDS-related mortality on a population level. The number of long-term survivors is substantially increased only when vaccination is initiated early in an AIDS epidemic, however.

Slowly switching between environments facilitates reverse evolution in small populations.

PubMed

Tan, Longzhi; Gore, Jeff

2012-10-01

Natural populations must constantly adapt to ever-changing environmental conditions. A particularly interesting question is whether such adaptations can be reversed by returning the population to an ancestral environment. Such evolutionary reversals have been observed in both natural and laboratory populations. However, the factors that determine the reversibility of evolution are still under debate. The time scales of environmental change vary over a wide range, but little is known about how the rate of environmental change influences the reversibility of evolution. Here, we demonstrate computationally that slowly switching between environments increases the reversibility of evolution for small populations that are subject to only modest clonal interference. For small populations, slow switching reduces the mean number of mutations acquired in a new environment and also increases the probability of reverse evolution at each of these "genetic distances." As the population size increases, slow switching no longer reduces the genetic distance, thus decreasing the evolutionary reversibility. We confirm this effect using both a phenomenological model of clonal interference and also a Wright-Fisher stochastic simulation that incorporates genetic diversity. Our results suggest that the rate of environmental change is a key determinant of the reversibility of evolution, and provides testable hypotheses for experimental evolution. © 2012 The Author(s). Evolution© 2012 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Complex spatial dynamics maintain northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens) genetic diversity in a temporally varying landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mushet, David M.; Euliss, Ned H.; Chen, Yongjiu; Stockwell, Craig A.

2013-01-01

In contrast to most local amphibian populations, northeastern populations of the Northern Leopard Frog (Lithobates pipiens) have displayed uncharacteristically high levels of genetic diversity that have been attributed to large, stable populations. However, this widely distributed species also occurs in areas known for great climatic fluctuations that should be reflected in corresponding fluctuations in population sizes and reduced genetic diversity. To test our hypothesis that Northern Leopard Frog genetic diversity would be reduced in areas subjected to significant climate variability, we examined the genetic diversity of L. pipiens collected from 12 sites within the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota. Despite the region's fluctuating climate that includes periods of recurring drought and deluge, we found unexpectedly high levels of genetic diversity approaching that of northeastern populations. Further, genetic structure at a landscape scale was strikingly homogeneous; genetic differentiation estimates (Dest) averaged 0.10 (SD = 0.036) across the six microsatellite loci we studied, and two Bayesian assignment tests (STRUCTURE and BAPS) failed to reveal the development of significant population structure across the 68 km breadth of our study area. These results suggest that L. pipiens in the Prairie Pothole Region consists of a large, panmictic population capable of maintaining high genetic diversity in the face of marked climate variability.

Refractory Inclusion Size Distribution and Fabric Measured in a Large Slab of the Allende CV3 Chondrite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Srinivasan, P.; Simon, Justin I.; Cuzzi, J. N.

2013-01-01

Aggregate textures of chondrites reflect accretion of early-formed particles in the solar nebula. Explanations for the size and density variations of particle populations found among chondrites are debated. Differences could have risen out of formation in different locations in the nebula, and/or they could have been caused by a sorting process [1]. Many ideas on the cause of chondrule sorting have been proposed; some including sorting by mass [2,3], by X-winds [4], turbulent concentration [5], and by photophoresis [6]. However, few similar studies have been conducted for Ca-, Al-rich inclusions (CAIs). These particles are known to have formed early, and their distribution could attest to the early stages of Solar System (ESS) history. Unfortunately, CAIs are not as common in chondrites as chondrules are, reducing the usefulness of studies restricted to a few thin sections. Furthermore, the largest sizes of CAIs are generally much larger than chondrules, and therefore rarely present in most studied chondrite thin sections. This study attempts to perform a more representative sampling of the CAI population in the Allende chondrite by investigating a two decimeter-sized slab.

Experimental evolution in Drosophila melanogaster: interaction of temperature and food quality selection regimes.

PubMed

Bochdanovits, Zoltán; de Jong, Gerdien

2003-08-01

In Drosophila, both the phenotypic and evolutionary effect of temperature on adult size involves alterations to larval resource processing and affects other life-history traits, that is, development time but most notably, larval survival. Therefore, thermal evolution of adult body size might not be independent of simultaneous adaptation of larval traits to resource availability. Using experimental evolution lines adapted to high and low temperatures at different levels of food, we show that selection pressures interact in shaping larval resource processing. Evolution on poor food invariably leads to lower resource acquisition suggesting a cost to feeding behavior. However, following low temperature selection, lower resource acquisition led to a higher adult body size, probably by more efficient allocation to growth. In contrast, following high temperature selection, low resource acquisition benefited larval survival, possibly by reducing feeding-associated costs. We show that evolved differences to larval resource processing provide a possible proximate mechanism to variation in a suite of correlated life-history traits during adaptation to different climates. The implication for natural populations is that in nature, thermal evolution drives populations to opposite ends of an adult size versus larval survival trade-off by altering resource processing, if resource availability is limited.

Double Trouble at High Density: Cross-Level Test of Resource-Related Adaptive Plasticity and Crowding-Related Fitness

PubMed Central

Gergs, André; Preuss, Thomas G.; Palmqvist, Annemette

2014-01-01

Population size is often regulated by negative feedback between population density and individual fitness. At high population densities, animals run into double trouble: they might concurrently suffer from overexploitation of resources and also from negative interference among individuals regardless of resource availability, referred to as crowding. Animals are able to adapt to resource shortages by exhibiting a repertoire of life history and physiological plasticities. In addition to resource-related plasticity, crowding might lead to reduced fitness, with consequences for individual life history. We explored how different mechanisms behind resource-related plasticity and crowding-related fitness act independently or together, using the water flea Daphnia magna as a case study. For testing hypotheses related to mechanisms of plasticity and crowding stress across different biological levels, we used an individual-based population model that is based on dynamic energy budget theory. Each of the hypotheses, represented by a sub-model, is based on specific assumptions on how the uptake and allocation of energy are altered under conditions of resource shortage or crowding. For cross-level testing of different hypotheses, we explored how well the sub-models fit individual level data and also how well they predict population dynamics under different conditions of resource availability. Only operating resource-related and crowding-related hypotheses together enabled accurate model predictions of D. magna population dynamics and size structure. Whereas this study showed that various mechanisms might play a role in the negative feedback between population density and individual life history, it also indicated that different density levels might instigate the onset of the different mechanisms. This study provides an example of how the integration of dynamic energy budget theory and individual-based modelling can facilitate the exploration of mechanisms behind the regulation of population size. Such understanding is important for assessment, management and the conservation of populations and thereby biodiversity in ecosystems. PMID:24626228

Chinook salmon use of spawning patches: relative roles of habitat quality, size, and connectivity.

PubMed

Isaak, Daniel J; Thurow, Russell F; Rieman, Bruce E; Dunham, Jason B

2007-03-01

Declines in many native fish populations have led to reassessments of management goals and shifted priorities from consumptive uses to species preservation. As management has shifted, relevant environmental characteristics have evolved from traditional metrics that described local habitat quality to characterizations of habitat size and connectivity. Despite the implications this shift has for how habitats may be prioritized for conservation, it has been rare to assess the relative importance of these habitat components. We used an information-theoretic approach to select the best models from sets of logistic regressions that linked habitat quality, size, and connectivity to the occurrence of chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) nests. Spawning distributions were censused annually from 1995 to 2004, and data were complemented with field measurements that described habitat quality in 43 suitable spawning patches across a stream network that drained 1150 km2 in central Idaho. Results indicated that the most plausible models were dominated by measures of habitat size and connectivity, whereas habitat quality was of minor importance. Connectivity was the strongest predictor of nest occurrence, but connectivity interacted with habitat size, which became relatively more important when populations were reduced. Comparison of observed nest distributions to null model predictions confirmed that the habitat size association was driven by a biological mechanism when populations were small, but this association may have been an area-related sampling artifact at higher abundances. The implications for habitat management are that the size and connectivity of existing habitat networks should be maintained whenever possible. In situations where habitat restoration is occurring, expansion of existing areas or creation of new habitats in key areas that increase connectivity may be beneficial. Information about habitat size and connectivity also could be used to strategically prioritize areas for improvement of local habitat quality, with areas not meeting minimum thresholds being deemed inappropriate for pursuit of restoration activities.

Chinook salmon use of spawning patches: Relative roles of habitat quality, size, and connectivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Isaak, D.J.; Thurow, R.F.; Rieman, B.E.; Dunham, J.B.

2007-01-01

Declines in many native fish populations have led to reassessments of management goals and shifted priorities from consumptive uses to species preservation. As management has shifted, relevant environmental characteristics have evolved from traditional metrics that described local habitat quality to characterizations of habitat size and connectivity. Despite the implications this shift has for how habitats may be prioritized for conservation, it has been rare to assess the relative importance of these habitat components. We used an information-theoretic approach to select the best models from sets of logistic regressions that linked habitat quality, size, and connectivity to the occurrence of chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) nests. Spawning distributions were censused annually from 1995 to 2004, and data were complemented with field measurements that described habitat quality in 43 suitable spawning patches across a stream network that drained 1150 km 2 in central Idaho. Results indicated that the most plausible models were dominated by measures of habitat size and connectivity, whereas habitat quality was of minor importance. Connectivity was the strongest predictor of nest occurrence, but connectivity interacted with habitat size, which became relatively more important when populations were reduced. Comparison of observed nest distributions to null model predictions confirmed that the habitat size association was driven by a biological mechanism when populations were small, but this association may have been an area-related sampling artifact at higher abundances. The implications for habitat management are that the size and connectivity of existing habitat networks should be maintained whenever possible. In situations where habitat restoration is occurring, expansion of existing areas or creation of new habitats in key areas that increase connectivity may be beneficial. Information about habitat size and connectivity also could be used to strategically prioritize areas for improvement of local habitat quality, with areas not meeting minimum thresholds being deemed inappropriate for pursuit of restoration activities. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Coral reef fishes exhibit beneficial phenotypes inside marine protected areas

PubMed Central

Carroll, Jessica; Rynerson, Kristen W.; Matthews, Danielle F.; Turingan, Ralph G.

2018-01-01

Human fishing effort is size-selective, preferentially removing the largest individuals from harvested stocks. Intensive, size-specific fishing mortality induces directional shifts in phenotypic frequencies towards the predominance of smaller and earlier-maturing individuals, which are among the primary causes of declining fish biomass. Fish that reproduce at smaller size and younger age produce fewer, smaller, and less viable larvae, severely reducing the reproductive capacity of harvested populations. Marine protected areas (MPAs) are extensively utilized in coral reefs for fisheries management, and are thought to mitigate the impacts of size-selective fishing mortality and supplement fished stocks through larval export. However, empirical evidence of disparities in fitness-relevant phenotypes between MPAs and adjacent fished reefs is necessary to validate this assertion. Here, we compare key life-history traits in three coral-reef fishes (Acanthurus nigrofuscus, Ctenochaetus striatus, and Parupeneus multifasciatus) between MPAs and fished reefs in the Philippines. Results of our analyses support previous hypotheses regarding the impacts of MPAs on phenotypic traits. Asymptotic length (Linf) and growth rates (K) differed between conspecifics in MPAs and fished reefs, with protected populations exhibiting phenotypes that are known to confer higher fecundity. Additionally, populations demonstrated increases in length at 50% maturity (L50) inside MPAs compared to adjacent areas, although age at 50% maturity (A50) did not appear to be impacted by MPA establishment. Shifts toward advantageous phenotypes were most common in the oldest and largest MPAs, but occurred in all of the MPAs examined. These results suggest that MPAs may provide protection against the impacts of size-selective harvest on life-history traits in coral-reef fishes. PMID:29470525

A comparison of the environmental impact of Jersey compared with Holstein milk for cheese production.

PubMed

Capper, J L; Cady, R A

2012-01-01

The objective of this study was to compare the environmental impact of Jersey or Holstein milk production sufficient to yield 500,000 t of cheese (equivalent cheese yield) both with and without recombinant bovine somatotropin use. The deterministic model used 2009 DairyMetrics (Dairy Records Management Systems, Raleigh, NC) population data for milk yield and composition (Jersey: 20.9 kg/d, 4.8% fat, 3.7% protein; Holstein: 29.1 kg/d, 3.8% fat, 3.1% protein), age at first calving, calving interval, and culling rate. Each population contained lactating and dry cows, bulls, and herd replacements for which rations were formulated according to DairyPro (Agricultural Modeling and Training Systems, Cornell, Ithaca, NY) at breed-appropriate body weights (BW), with mature cows weighing 454 kg (Jersey) or 680 kg (Holstein). Resource inputs included feedstuffs, water, land, fertilizers, and fossil fuels. Waste outputs included manure and greenhouse gas emissions. Cheese yield (kg) was calculated according to the Van Slyke equation. A yield of 500,000 t of cheese required 4.94 billion kg of Holstein milk compared with 3.99 billion kg of Jersey milk-a direct consequence of differences in milk nutrient density (fat and protein contents) between the 2 populations. The reduced daily milk yield of Jersey cows increased the population size required to supply sufficient milk for the required cheese yield, but the differential in BW between the Jersey and Holstein breeds reduced the body mass of the Jersey population by 125×10(3) t. Consequently, the population energy requirement was reduced by 7,177×10(6) MJ, water use by 252×10(9) L, and cropland use by 97.5×10(3) ha per 500,000 t of cheese yield. Nitrogen and phosphorus excretion were reduced by 17,234 and 1,492 t, respectively, through the use of Jersey milk to yield 500,000 t of Cheddar cheese. The carbon footprint was reduced by 1,662×10(3) t of CO(2)-equivalents per 500,000 t of cheese in Jersey cows compared with Holsteins. Use of recombinant bovine somatotropin reduced resource use and waste output in supplemented populations, with decreases in carbon footprint equivalent to 10.0% (Jersey) and 7.5% (Holstein) compared with nonsupplemented populations. The interaction between milk nutrient density and BW demonstrated by the Jersey population overcame the reduced daily milk yield, thus reducing resource use and environmental impact. This reduction was achieved through 2 mechanisms: diluting population maintenance overhead through improved milk nutrient density and reducing maintenance overhead through a reduction in productive and nonproductive body mass within the population. Copyright © 2012 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arbique, G; Anderson, J; Guild, J

Purpose: The National Lung Screening Trial mandated manual low dose CT technique factors, where up to a doubling of radiation output could be used over a regular to large patient size range. Recent guidance from the AAPM and ACR for lung cancer CT screening recommends radiation output adjustment for patient size either through AEC or a manual technique chart. This study evaluated the use of AEC for output control and dose reduction. Methods: The study was performed on a multidetector helical CT scanner (Aquillion ONE, Toshiba Medical) equipped with iterative reconstruction (ADIR-3D), AEC was adjusted with a standard deviation (SD)more » image quality noise index. The protocol SD parameter was incrementally increased to reduce patient population dose while image quality was evaluated by radiologist readers scoring the clinical utility of images on a Likert scale. Results: Plots of effective dose vs. body size (water cylinder diameter reported by the scanner) demonstrate monotonic increase in patient dose with increasing patient size. At the initial SD setting of 19 the average CTDIvol for a standard size patient was ∼ 2.0 mGy (1.2 mSv effective dose). This was reduced to ∼1.0 mGy (0.5 mSv) at an SD of 25 with no noticeable reduction in clinical utility of images as demonstrated by Likert scoring. Plots of effective patient diameter and BMI vs body size indicate that these metrics could also be used for manual technique charts. Conclusion: AEC offered consistent and reliable control of radiation output in this study. Dose for a standard size patient was reduced to one-third of the 3 mGy CTDIvol limit required for ACR accreditation of lung cancer CT screening. Gary Arbique: Research Grant, Toshiba America Medical Systems; Cecelia Brewington: Research Grant, Toshiba America Medical Systems; Di Zhang: Employee, Toshiba America Medical Systems.« less

On the absence of a correlation between population size and 'toolkit size' in ethnographic hunter-gatherers.

PubMed

Aoki, Kenichi

2018-04-05

In apparent contradiction to the theoretically predicted effect of population size on the quality/quantity of material culture, statistical analyses on ethnographic hunter-gatherers have shown an absence of correlation between population size and toolkit size. This has sparked a heated, if sometimes tangential, debate as to the usefulness of the theoretical models and as to what modes of cultural transmission humans are capable of and hunter-gatherers rely on. I review the directly relevant theoretical literature and argue that much of the confusion is caused by a mismatch between the theoretical variable and the empirical observable. I then confirm that a model incorporating the appropriate variable does predict a positive association between population size and toolkit size for random oblique, vertical, best-of- K , conformist, anticonformist, success bias and one-to-many cultural transmission, with the caveat that for all populations sampled, the population size has remained constant and toolkit size has reached the equilibrium for this population size. Finally, I suggest three theoretical scenarios, two of them involving variable population size, that would attenuate or eliminate this association and hence help to explain the empirical absence of correlation.This article is part of the theme issue 'Bridging cultural gaps: interdisciplinary studies in human cultural evolution'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Population size is weakly related to quantitative genetic variation and trait differentiation in a stream fish.

PubMed

Wood, Jacquelyn L A; Tezel, Defne; Joyal, Destin; Fraser, Dylan J

2015-09-01

How population size influences quantitative genetic variation and differentiation among natural, fragmented populations remains unresolved. Small, isolated populations might occupy poor quality habitats and lose genetic variation more rapidly due to genetic drift than large populations. Genetic drift might furthermore overcome selection as population size decreases. Collectively, this might result in directional changes in additive genetic variation (VA ) and trait differentiation (QST ) from small to large population size. Alternatively, small populations might exhibit larger variation in VA and QST if habitat fragmentation increases variability in habitat types. We explored these alternatives by investigating VA and QST using nine fragmented populations of brook trout varying 50-fold in census size N (179-8416) and 10-fold in effective number of breeders, Nb (18-135). Across 15 traits, no evidence was found for consistent differences in VA and QST with population size and almost no evidence for increased variability of VA or QST estimates at small population size. This suggests that (i) small populations of some species may retain adaptive potential according to commonly adopted quantitative genetic measures and (ii) populations of varying sizes experience a variety of environmental conditions in nature, however extremely large studies are likely required before any firm conclusions can be made. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Making It Count: Improving Estimates of the Size of Transgender and Gender Nonconforming Populations.

PubMed

Deutsch, Madeline B

2016-06-01

An accurate estimate of the number of transgender and gender nonconforming people is essential to inform policy and funding priorities and decisions. Historical reports of population sizes of 1 in 4000 to 1 in 50,000 have been based on clinical populations and likely underestimate the size of the transgender population. More recent population-based studies have found a 10- to 100-fold increase in population size. Studies that estimate population size should be population based, employ the two-step method to allow for collection of both gender identity and sex assigned at birth, and include measures to capture the range of transgender people with nonbinary gender identities.

Effects of physiological aging on mismatch negativity: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Cheng, Chia-Hsiung; Hsu, Wan-Yu; Lin, Yung-Yang

2013-11-01

Mismatch negativity (MMN) is a promising window on how the functional integrity of auditory sensory memory and change discrimination is modulated by age and relevant clinical conditions. However, the effects of aging on MMN have remained somewhat elusive, particularly at short interstimulus intervals (ISIs). We performed a meta-analysis of peer-reviewed MMN studies that had targeted both young and elderly adults to estimate the mean effect size. Nine studies, consisting of 29 individual investigations, were included and the final total study population consisted of 182 young and 165 elderly subjects. The effects of different deviant types and duration of ISIs on the effect size were assessed. The overall mean effect size was 0.63 (95% CI at 0.43-0.82). The effect sizes for long ISI (>2s, effect size 0.68, 95% CI at 0.31-1.06) and short ISI (<2s, effect size 0.61, 95% CI at 0.39-0.84) were both considered moderate. A further analysis showed a prominent aging-related decrease in MMN responses to duration and frequency changes at short ISIs. It was also interesting to note that the effect size was about 25% larger for duration deviant condition compared to the frequency deviant condition. In conclusion, a reduced MMN response to duration and frequency deviants is a robust feature among the aged adults, which suggests that there has been a decline in the functional integrity of central auditory processing in this population. © 2013.

Mutation load and the extinction of large populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardes, A. T.

1996-02-01

In the time evolution of finite populations, the accumulation of harmful mutations in further generations might lead to a temporal decay in the mean fitness of the whole population that, after sufficient time, would reduce population size and so lead to extinction. This joint action of mutation load and population reduction is called Mutational Meltdown and is usually considered only to occur in small asexual or very small sexual populations. However, the problem of extinction cannot be discussed in a proper way if one previously assumes the existence of an equilibrium state, as initially discussed in this paper. By performing simulations in a genetically inspired model for time-changing populations, we show that mutational meltdown also occurs in large asexual populations and that the mean time to extinction is a nonmonotonic function of the selection coefficient. The stochasticity of the extinction process is also discussed. The extinction of small sexual N ∼ 700 populations is shown and our results confirm the assumption that the existence of recombination might be a powerful mechanism to avoid extinction.

Critically evaluating best management practices for preventing freshwater turtle extinctions.

PubMed

Spencer, R-J; Van Dyke, J U; Thompson, Michael B

2017-12-01

Ex situ conservation tools, such as captive breeding for reintroduction, are considered a last resort to recover threatened or endangered species, but they may also help reduce anthropogenic threats where it is difficult or impossible to address them directly. Headstarting, or captive rearing of eggs or neonate animals for subsequent release into the wild, is controversial because it treats only a symptom of a larger conservation problem; however, it may provide a mechanism to address multiple threats, particularly near population centers. We conducted a population viability analysis of Australia's most widespread freshwater turtle, Chelodina longicollis, to determine the effect of adult roadkill (death by collision with motor vehicles), which is increasing, and reduced recruitment through nest predation from introduced European red foxes (Vulpes vulpes). We also modeled management scenarios to test the effectiveness of headstarting, fox management, and measures to reduce mortality on roads. Only scenarios with headstarting from source populations eliminated all risks of extinction and allowed population growth. Small increases in adult mortality (2%) had the greatest effect on population growth and extinction risk. Where threats simultaneously affected other life-history stages (e.g., recruitment), eliminating harvest pressures on adult females alone did not eliminate the risk of population extinction. In our models, one source population could supply enough hatchlings annually to supplement 25 other similar-sized populations such that extinction was avoided. Based on our results, we believe headstarting should be a primary tool for managing freshwater turtles for which threats affect multiple life-history stages. We advocate the creation of source populations for managing freshwater turtles that are greatly threatened at multiple life-history stages, such as depredation of eggs by invasive species and adult mortality via roadkill. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Molecular evolution of the Bovini tribe (Bovidae, Bovinae): Is there evidence of rapid evolution or reduced selective constraint in Domestic cattle?

PubMed Central

MacEachern, Sean; McEwan, John; McCulloch, Alan; Mather, Andrew; Savin, Keith; Goddard, Mike

2009-01-01

Background If mutation within the coding region of the genome is largely not adaptive, the ratio of nonsynonymous (dN) to synonymous substitutions (dS) per site (dN/dS) should be approximately equal among closely related species. Furthermore, dN/dS in divergence between species should be equivalent to dN/dS in polymorphisms. This hypothesis is of particular interest in closely related members of the Bovini tribe, because domestication has promoted rapid phenotypic divergence through strong artificial selection of some species while others remain undomesticated. We examined a number of genes that may be involved in milk production in Domestic cattle and a number of their wild relatives for evidence that domestication had affected molecular evolution. Elevated rates of dN/dS were further queried to determine if they were the result of positive selection, low effective population size (Ne) or reduced selective constraint. Results We have found that the domestication process has contributed to higher dN/dS ratios in cattle, especially in the lineages leading to the Domestic cow (Bos taurus) and Mithan (Bos frontalis) and within some breeds of Domestic cow. However, the high rates of dN/dS polymorphism within B. taurus when compared to species divergence suggest that positive selection has not elevated evolutionary rates in these genes. Likewise, the low rate of dN/dS in Bison, which has undergone a recent population bottleneck, indicates a reduction in population size alone is not responsible for these observations. Conclusion The effect of selection depends on effective population size and the selection coefficient (Nes). Typically under domestication both selection pressure for traits important in fitness in the wild and Ne are reduced. Therefore, reduced selective constraint could be responsible for the observed elevated evolutionary ratios in domesticated species, especially in B. taurus and B. frontalis, which have the highest dN/dS in the Bovini. This may have important implications for tests of selection such as the McDonald-Kreitman test. Surprisingly we have also detected a significant difference in the supposed neutral substitution rate between synonymous and noncoding sites in the Bovine genome, with a 30% higher rate of substitution at synonymous sites. This is due, at least in part, to an excess of the highly mutable CpG dinucleotides at synonymous sites, which will have implications for time of divergence estimates from molecular data. PMID:19393048

Forest clearing in the Ecuadorian Amazon: A study of patterns over space and time

PubMed Central

Pan, William; Carr, David; Barbieri, Alisson; Bilsborrow, Richard; Suchindran, Chirayath

2010-01-01

This study tests four hypotheses related to forest clearing over time in Ecuador’s northern Amazon: (1) a larger increase in population over time on a farm (finca) leads to more deforestation; (2) rates of forest clearing surrounding four primary reference communities differ (spatial heterogeneity); (3) fincas farther from towns/communities experience lower rates of forest clearing over time; and (4) forest clearing differs by finca settlement cohort, viz., by year of establishment of the finca. In this paper, we examine the relationship between forest clearing and key variables over time, and compare three statistical models—OLS, random effects, and spatial regression—to test hypotheses. Descriptive analyses indicate that 7–15% of forest area was cleared on fincas between 1990 and 1999; that more recently established fincas experienced more rapid forest clearing; and that population size and forest clearing are both related to distance from a major community. Controlling for key variables, model results indicate that an increase in population size is significantly related to more forest clearing; rates of forest clearing around the four major communities are not significantly different; distances separating fincas and communities are not significantly related to deforestation; and deforestation rates are higher among more recently established fincas. Key policy implications include the importance of reducing population growth and momentum through measures such as improving information about and provision of family planning services; increasing the low level of girls education to delay and reduce fertility; and expanding credit and agricultural extension services to increase agricultural intensification. PMID:20703367

How can mortality increase population size? A test of two mechanistic hypotheses.

PubMed

McIntire, Kristina M; Juliano, Steven A

2018-05-03

Overcompensation occurs when added mortality increases survival to the next life-cycle stage. Overcompensation can contribute to the Hydra Effect, wherein added mortality increases equilibrium population size. One hypothesis for overcompensation is that added mortality eases density-dependence, increasing survival to adulthood ("temporal separation of mortality and density dependence"). Mortality early in the life cycle is therefore predicted to cause overcompensation, whereas mortality later in the life cycle is not. Another hypothesis for overcompensation is that threat of mortality (e.g., from predation) causes behavioral changes that reduce overexploitation of resources, allowing resource recovery, and increasing production of adults ("prudent resource exploitation"). Behaviorally active predation cues alone are therefore predicted to cause overcompensation. We tested these predictions in two experiments with larvae of two species of Aedes. As predicted, early mortality yielded greater production of adults, and of adult females, and greater estimated rate of population increase than did later mortality. Addition of water-borne predation cues usually reduced browsing on surfaces in late-stage larvae, but contrary to prediction, resulted in neither significantly greater production of adult mosquitoes nor significantly greater estimated rate of increase. Thus we have strong evidence that timing of mortality contributes to overcompensation and the Hydra effect in mosquitoes. Evidence that predation cues alone can result in overcompensation via prudent resource exploitation is lacking. We expect the overcompensation in response to early mortality will be common in organisms with complex life cycles, density dependence among juveniles, and developmental control of populations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Estimation of genetic diversity in Gute sheep: pedigree and microsatellite analyses of an ancient Swedish breed.

PubMed

Rochus, Christina M; Johansson, Anna M

2017-01-01

Breeds with small population size are in danger of an increased inbreeding rate and loss of genetic diversity, which puts them at risk for extinction. In Sweden there are a number of local breeds, native breeds which have adapted to specific areas in Sweden, for which efforts are being made to keep them pure and healthy over time. One example of such a breed is the Swedish Gute sheep. The objective of this study was to estimate inbreeding and genetic diversity of Swedish Gute sheep. Three datasets were analysed: pedigree information of the whole population, pedigree information for 100 animals of the population, and microsatellite genotypes for 94 of the 100 animals. The average inbreeding coefficient for lambs born during a six year time period (2007-2012) did not increase during that time period. The inbreeding calculated from the entire pedigree (0.038) and for a sample of the population (0.018) was very low. Sheep were more heterozygous at the microsatellite markers than expected (average multilocus heterozygosity and Ritland inbreeding estimates 1.01845 and -0.03931) and five of seven microsatellite markers were not in Hardy Weinberg equilibrium due to heterozygosity excess. The total effective population size estimated from the pedigree information was 155.4 and the average harmonic mean effective population size estimated from microsatellites was 88.3. Pedigree and microsatellite genotype estimations of inbreeding were consistent with a breeding program with the purpose of reducing inbreeding. Our results showed that current breeding programs of the Swedish Gute sheep are consistent with efforts of keeping this breed viable and these breeding programs are an example for other small local breeds in conserving breeds for the future.

Individual and population-level responses to ocean acidification.

PubMed

Harvey, Ben P; McKeown, Niall J; Rastrick, Samuel P S; Bertolini, Camilla; Foggo, Andy; Graham, Helen; Hall-Spencer, Jason M; Milazzo, Marco; Shaw, Paul W; Small, Daniel P; Moore, Pippa J

2016-01-29

Ocean acidification is predicted to have detrimental effects on many marine organisms and ecological processes. Despite growing evidence for direct impacts on specific species, few studies have simultaneously considered the effects of ocean acidification on individuals (e.g. consequences for energy budgets and resource partitioning) and population level demographic processes. Here we show that ocean acidification increases energetic demands on gastropods resulting in altered energy allocation, i.e. reduced shell size but increased body mass. When scaled up to the population level, long-term exposure to ocean acidification altered population demography, with evidence of a reduction in the proportion of females in the population and genetic signatures of increased variance in reproductive success among individuals. Such increased variance enhances levels of short-term genetic drift which is predicted to inhibit adaptation. Our study indicates that even against a background of high gene flow, ocean acidification is driving individual- and population-level changes that will impact eco-evolutionary trajectories.

Comparative Population Genomics Analysis of the Mammalian Fungal Pathogen Pneumocystis

PubMed Central

Ma, Liang; Wei Huang, Da; Khil, Pavel P.; Dekker, John P.; Kutty, Geetha; Bishop, Lisa; Liu, Yueqin; Deng, Xilong; Pagni, Marco; Hirsch, Vanessa; Lempicki, Richard A.

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Pneumocystis species are opportunistic mammalian pathogens that cause severe pneumonia in immunocompromised individuals. These fungi are highly host specific and uncultivable in vitro. Human Pneumocystis infections present major challenges because of a limited therapeutic arsenal and the rise of drug resistance. To investigate the diversity and demographic history of natural populations of Pneumocystis infecting humans, rats, and mice, we performed whole-genome and large-scale multilocus sequencing of infected tissues collected in various geographic locations. Here, we detected reduced levels of recombination and variations in historical demography, which shape the global population structures. We report estimates of evolutionary rates, levels of genetic diversity, and population sizes. Molecular clock estimates indicate that Pneumocystis species diverged before their hosts, while the asynchronous timing of population declines suggests host shifts. Our results have uncovered complex patterns of genetic variation influenced by multiple factors that shaped the adaptation of Pneumocystis populations during their spread across mammals. PMID:29739910

Selection and reduced population size cannot explain higher amounts of Neandertal ancestry in East Asian than in European human populations.

PubMed

Kim, Bernard Y; Lohmueller, Kirk E

2015-03-05

It has been hypothesized that the greater proportion of Neandertal ancestry in East Asians than in Europeans is due to the fact that purifying selection is less effective at removing weakly deleterious Neandertal alleles from East Asian populations. Using simulations of a broad range of models of selection and demography, we have shown that this hypothesis cannot account for the higher proportion of Neandertal ancestry in East Asians than in Europeans. Instead, more complex demographic scenarios, most likely involving multiple pulses of Neandertal admixture, are required to explain the data. Copyright © 2015 The American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Translocation and early post-release demography of endangered Laysan teal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, M.H.; Seavy, N.E.; Vekasy, M.S.; Klavitter, J.L.; Laniawe, L.P.

2008-01-01

In an attempt to reduce the high extinction risk inherent to small island populations, we translocated wild Laysan teal Anas laysanensis to a portion of its presumed prehistoric range. Most avian translocations lack the strategic post-release monitoring needed to assess early population establishment or failure. Therefore, we monitored the survival and reproduction of all founders, and their first-generation offspring using radio telemetry for 2 years after the first release. Forty-two Laysan teal were sourced directly from the only extant population on Laysan Island and transported 2 days by ship to Midway Atoll. All birds survived the translocation with nutritional and veterinary support, and spent between 4 and 14 days in captivity. Post-release survival of 42 founders was 0.857 (95% CI 0.86-0.99) during 2004-2006 or annualized 0.92 (95% CI 0.83-0.98). Seventeen of 18 founding hens attempted nesting in the first two breeding seasons. Fledgling success was 0.57 (95% CI 0.55-0.60) in 2005 and 0.63 (95% CI 0.62-0.64) in 2006. The effective founding female population (Ne) was 13. We applied these initial demographic rates to model population growth. The nascent population size increased to >100 after only 2 years post-release (?? = 1.73). If this growth rate continues, the size of the Midway population could surpass the source population before 2010. ?? 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2008 The Zoological Society of London.

Toward Development of Afghanistan National Stability: Analyses in Historical Military and Cultural Contexts

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-05-21

reduced the size of the Army to 23,010 and finally to a low of 11,000.73 A variety of military equipment from different countries sat rusting due to...and U.S. Policy,” 4. 40% unemployment rate; 80% of the population is involved in agriculture. Self-sufficiency in wheat production as of May 2009

75 FR 36012 - Fisheries of the Northeastern United States; 2010 Specifications for the Spiny Dogfish Fishery

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-24

... be lower than historic levels due to reduced maternal size and a skewed male-to-female sex ratio in... male-to-female sex ratio in the population. Therefore, the FY 2010 commercial quota is being increased... and implemented in 2000 in order to halt large-scale depletion of reproductively mature female spiny...

Behavioral response of the coachwhip (Masticophis flagellum) to habitat fragment size and isolation in an urban landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mitrovich, Milan J.; Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Fisher, Robert N.

2009-01-01

Habitat fragmentation is a significant threat to biodiversity worldwide. Habitat loss and the isolation of habitat fragments disrupt biological communities, accelerate the extinction of populations, and often lead to the alteration of behavioral patterns typical of individuals in large, contiguous natural areas. We used radio-telemetry to study the space-use behavior of the Coachwhip, a larger-bodied, wide-ranging snake species threatened by habitat fragmentation, in fragmented and contiguous areas of coastal southern California. We tracked 24 individuals at three sites over two years. Movement patterns of Coachwhips changed in habitat fragments. As area available to the snakes was reduced, individuals faced increased crowding, had smaller home-range sizes, tolerated greater home-range overlap, and showed more concentrated movement activity and convoluted movement pathways. The behavioral response shown by Coachwhips suggests, on a regional level, area-effects alone cannot explain observed extinctions on habitat fragments but, instead, suggests changes in habitat configuration are more likely to explain the decline of this species. Ultimately, if "edge-exposure" is a common cause of decline, then isolated fragments, appropriately buffered to reduce emigration and edge effects, may support viable populations of fragmentation-sensitive species.

Ecological context of the evolution of self-pollination in Clarkia xantiana: population size, plant communities, and reproductive assurance.

PubMed

Moeller, David A; Geber, Monica A

2005-04-01

The repeated evolutionary transition from outcrossing to self-pollination in flowering plants has been suggested to occur because selfing provides reproductive assurance. Reports from biogeographical and ecological surveys indicate that selfing taxa are often associated with stressful and ephemeral environments, situations in which plant abundance is low (e.g., Baker's law) and with novel plant communities, however experimental tests of ecological hypotheses are few. In this study, we examined the ecological context of selection on mating system traits (herkogamy and protandry) in a California annual, Clarkia xantiana, where natural selfing populations differ from outcrossing populations in that they are often of small size or low density and occur mainly outside the range of pollinator-sharing congeners. We constructed artificial populations of plants with broad genetic variation in floral traits and manipulated two ecological factors, plant population size, and the presence versus absence of pollinator-sharing congeners, in the center of the geographic range of outcrossing populations. We found evidence for context-dependent selection on herkogamy and protandry via female fitness in which reduced traits, which promote autonomous selfing, were favored in small populations isolated from congeners whereas selection was comparatively weak in large populations or when congeners were present. In small, isolated populations, the fertility of plants with low herkogamy or protandry was elevated by 66% and 58%, respectively, compared to those with high herkogamy or protandry. The presence of pollinator-sharing congeners augmented bee visitation rates to C. xantiana flowers by 47% for all bees and by 93% for pollen specialists. By facilitating pollinator visitation, congeners mitigated selection on mating system traits in small populations, where outcross mating success is often low (the Allee effect). We also found support for the hypothesis that pollinator availability directly influenced variation in the strength of selection on herkogamy among populations. The striking parallels between our experimental results and patterns of variation in ecological factors across the geographic range of outcrossing and selfing populations suggest that reproductive assurance may play a central role in directing mating system evolution in C. xantiana.

Analytical properties of a three-compartmental dynamical demographic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Postnikov, E. B.

2015-07-01

The three-compartmental demographic model by Korotaeyv-Malkov-Khaltourina, connecting population size, economic surplus, and education level, is considered from the point of view of dynamical systems theory. It is shown that there exist two integrals of motion, which enables the system to be reduced to one nonlinear ordinary differential equation. The study of its structure provides analytical criteria for the dominance ranges of the dynamics of Malthus and Kremer. Additionally, the particular ranges of parameters enable the derived general ordinary differential equations to be reduced to the models of Gompertz and Thoularis-Wallace.

[Modelling of selection acting upon the pleioptropic locus in an asynchronous population].

PubMed

Zhdanov, O L; Frisman, E Ia

2014-08-01

We created and examined a mathematical model describing the size and genetic composition dynamics in a population with two age classes, where the survival of both zygotes and adult individuals is determined by one pleioptropic locus. Even under present limitations, as the outside effects of a complex multigenic system are reduced to the case of single locus, our model demonstrates a wide range of different evolutionary scenarios for possible changes in the population dynamics. An increase in the reproductive potential and survival is accompanied by a transition from stable to oscillating population numbers. However, the evolutionary growth of these parameters may be nonmonotonic and may fluctuate significantly. In the case of antagonistic pleioptropy, an increase in one of these parameters usually leads to a predictable decrease in the other. This, in turn, may even stabilize the numbers and genetic compositions of the age groups. We demonstrated that selection acting on later stages of the life cycle is accompanied by destabilization of the Hardy-Weinberg equilibriums that link allele and genotype frequencies. We obtained a balance ratio, which allowed us to compare the combined fitness of the genotypes and to demonstrate that selection leads to the exclusion of the least adapted genotypes. Initial conditionsmay in some cases determine the genetic composition and pattern of population size dynamics.

Patient access to reimbursed biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs in the European region.

PubMed

Kaló, Zoltán; Vokó, Zoltán; Östör, Andrew; Clifton-Brown, Emma; Vasilescu, Radu; Battersby, Alysia; Gibson, Edward

2017-01-01

Background & Objectives : Biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) are not always accessible to all patients in accordance with international guidelines, partly owing to their high direct costs against a background of restricted healthcare budgets. This study compares the size of RA patient populations with access to reimbursed bDMARDs across 37 European countries, Russia, and Turkey, according to their treatment eligibility defined by European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) recommendations and national reimbursement criteria. Methods : The size of the RA patient population eligible for bDMARD treatment was estimated in a population model using published RA epidemiological data and clinical criteria defined by 2013 EULAR recommendations along with national reimbursement criteria defined in a survey of the 39 countries in November 2015. Results : According to EULAR recommendations, 32% of the total RA population in the European region is eligible for bDMARD treatment. However, only an average 59% of this EULAR-eligible population remains eligible after applying national reimbursement criteria (from 86% in 'high access' to 13% in 'low-access' countries). Conclusion : Access to reimbursed bDMARDs remains unequal in the European region. As biosimilars of bDMARDs are introduced, changes in reimbursement criteria may increase access to bDMARDs and reduce this inequality.

DENSITY-DEPENDENT EVOLUTION OF LIFE-HISTORY TRAITS IN DROSOPHILA MELANOGASTER.

PubMed

Bierbaum, Todd J; Mueller, Laurence D; Ayala, Francisco J

1989-03-01

Populations of Drosophila melanogaster were maintained for 36 generations in r- and K-selected environments in order to test the life-history predictions of theories on density-dependent selection. In the r-selection environment, populations were reduced to low densities by density-independent adult mortality, whereas populations in the K-selection environment were maintained at their carrying capacity. Some of the experimental results support the predictions or r- and K-selection theory; relative to the r-selected populations, the K-selected populations evolved an increased larval-to-adult viability, larger body size, and longer development time at high larval densities. Mueller and Ayala (1981) found that K-selected populations also have a higher rate of population growth at high densities. Other predictions of the thoery are contradicted by the lack of differences between the r and K populations in adult longevity and fecundity and a slower rate of development for r-selected individuals at low densities. The differences between selected populations in larval survivorship, larval-to-adult development time, and adult body size are strongly dependent on larval density, and there is a significant interaction between populations and larval density for each trait. This manifests an inadequacy of the theory on r- and K-selection, which does not take into account such interactions between genotypes and environments. We describe mechanisms that may explain the evolution of preadult life-history traits in our experiment and discuss the need for changes in theories of density-dependent selection. © 1989 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Adopting epidemic model to optimize medication and surgical intervention of excess weight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Ruoyan

2017-01-01

We combined an epidemic model with an objective function to minimize the weighted sum of people with excess weight and the cost of a medication and surgical intervention in the population. The epidemic model is consisted of ordinary differential equations to describe three subpopulation groups based on weight. We introduced an intervention using medication and surgery to deal with excess weight. An objective function is constructed taking into consideration the cost of the intervention as well as the weight distribution of the population. Using empirical data, we show that fixed participation rate reduces the size of obese population but increases the size for overweight. An optimal participation rate exists and decreases with respect to time. Both theoretical analysis and empirical example confirm the existence of an optimal participation rate, u*. Under u*, the weighted sum of overweight (S) and obese (O) population as well as the cost of the program is minimized. This article highlights the existence of an optimal participation rate that minimizes the number of people with excess weight and the cost of the intervention. The time-varying optimal participation rate could contribute to designing future public health interventions of excess weight.

Growth of Salmonella on sprouting alfalfa seeds as affected by the inoculum size, native microbial load and Pseudomonas fluorescens 2-79.

PubMed

Liao, C-H

2008-02-01

To investigate the growth of salmonellae on sprouting alfalfa seeds as affected by the inoculum size, microbial load and Pseudomonas fluorescens 2-79. Alfalfa seeds pre-inoculated with < or =10(1)-10(3) CFU g(-1) of salmonellae and with or without Ps. fluorescens 2-79 were sprouted in glass jars and the population of salmonellae were determined daily for up to 6 days. The population of salmonellae on germinating seeds reached the maximum 2-3 days after sprouting when total bacterial count reached the maximum (10(9) CFU g(-1)). The population of salmonellae on sprouting seeds not treated with Ps. fluorescens 2-79 showed a net increase of 3-4 log units. However, the population of salmonellae on alfalfa seeds treated with Ps. fluorescens 2-79 showed a net increase of only 1-2 log units. Disinfection of seeds with calcium hypochlorite enhanced the growth of salmonellae. Treatment of seeds with Ps. fluorescens 2-79 reduced the growth of salmonellae by 2-3 log units. The potential of Ps. fluorescens 2-79 as a biological agent for use in control of salmonellae on sprouting seeds was demonstrated and warrants further investigation.

Density-associated recruitment mediates coral population dynamics on a coral reef

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bramanti, Lorenzo; Edmunds, Peter J.

2016-06-01

Theory suggests that density-associated processes can modulate community resilience following declines in population size. Here, we demonstrate density-associated processes in two scleractinian populations on the outer reef of Moorea, French Polynesia, that are rapidly increasing in size following the effects of two catastrophic disturbances. Between 2006 and 2010, predation by the corallivorous crown-of-thorns sea star reduced coral cover by 93 %; in 2010, the dead coral skeletons were removed by a cyclone, and in 2011 and 2012, high coral recruitment initiated population recovery. Coral recruitment was associated with coral cover, but the relationship differed between two coral genera that are almost exclusively broadcast spawners in Moorea. Acroporids recruited at low densities, and the density of recruits was positively associated with cover of Acropora, whereas pocilloporids recruited at high densities, and densities of their recruits were negatively associated with cover of Pocillopora. Together, our results suggest that associations between adult cover and density of both juveniles and recruits can mediate rapid coral community recovery after large disturbances. The difference between taxa in sign of the relationships between recruit density and coral cover indicate that they reflect contrasting mechanisms with the potential to mediate temporal shifts in taxonomic composition of coral communities.

Empirical tests of harvest-induced body-size evolution along a geographic gradient in Australian macropods.

PubMed

Prowse, Thomas A A; Correll, Rachel A; Johnson, Christopher N; Prideaux, Gavin J; Brook, Barry W

2015-01-01

Life-history theory predicts the progressive dwarfing of animal populations that are subjected to chronic mortality stress, but the evolutionary impact of harvesting terrestrial herbivores has seldom been tested. In Australia, marsupials of the genus Macropus (kangaroos and wallabies) are subjected to size-selective commercial harvesting. Mathematical modelling suggests that harvest quotas (c. 10-20% of population estimates annually) could be driving body-size evolution in these species. We tested this hypothesis for three harvested macropod species with continental-scale distributions. To do so, we measured more than 2000 macropod skulls sourced from wildlife collections spanning the last 130 years. We analysed these data using spatial Bayesian models that controlled for the age and sex of specimens as well as environmental drivers and island effects. We found no evidence for the hypothesized decline in body size for any species; rather, models that fit trend terms supported minor body size increases over time. This apparently counterintuitive result is consistent with reduced mortality due to a depauperate predator guild and increased primary productivity of grassland vegetation following European settlement in Australia. Spatial patterns in macropod body size supported the heat dissipation limit and productivity hypotheses proposed to explain geographic body-size variation (i.e. skull size increased with decreasing summer maximum temperature and increasing rainfall, respectively). There is no empirical evidence that size-selective harvesting has driven the evolution of smaller body size in Australian macropods. Bayesian models are appropriate for investigating the long-term impact of human harvesting because they can impute missing data, fit nonlinear growth models and account for non-random spatial sampling inherent in wildlife collections. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Temperature-dependent body size effects determine population responses to climate warming.

PubMed

Lindmark, Max; Huss, Magnus; Ohlberger, Jan; Gårdmark, Anna

2018-02-01

Current understanding of animal population responses to rising temperatures is based on the assumption that biological rates such as metabolism, which governs fundamental ecological processes, scale independently with body size and temperature, despite empirical evidence for interactive effects. Here, we investigate the consequences of interactive temperature- and size scaling of vital rates for the dynamics of populations experiencing warming using a stage-structured consumer-resource model. We show that interactive scaling alters population and stage-specific responses to rising temperatures, such that warming can induce shifts in population regulation and stage-structure, influence community structure and govern population responses to mortality. Analysing experimental data for 20 fish species, we found size-temperature interactions in intraspecific scaling of metabolic rate to be common. Given the evidence for size-temperature interactions and the ubiquity of size structure in animal populations, we argue that accounting for size-specific temperature effects is pivotal for understanding how warming affects animal populations and communities. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Altitudinal variation in age and body size in Yunnan pond frog (Pelophylax pleuraden).

PubMed

Lou, Shang Ling; Jin, Long; Liu, Yan Hong; Mi, Zhi Ping; Tao, Gang; Tang, Yu Mei; Liao, Wen Bo

2012-08-01

Large-scale systematic patterns of body size are a basic concern of evolutionary biology. Identifying body size variation along altitudinal gradients may help us to understand the evolution of life history of animals. In this study, we investigated altitudinal variation in body size, age and growth rate in Chinese endemic frog, Pelophylax pleuraden. Data sampled from five populations covering an altitudinal span of 1413 to 1935 m in Sichuan province revealed that body size from five populations did not co-vary with altitudes, not following Bergmann's rule. Average adult SVL differed significantly among populations in males, but not in females. For both sexes, average adult age differed significantly among populations. Post-metamorphic growth rate did not co-vary with altitude, and females grew faster than males in all populations. When controlling the effect of age, body size did not differ among populations in both sexes, suggesting that age did not affect variation in body size among populations. For females, there may be other factors, such as the allocation of energy between growth and reproduction, that eliminated the effect of age on body size. To our minds, the major reason of body size variation among populations in male frogs may be related to individual longevity. Our findings also suggest that factors other than age and growth rate may contribute to size differences among populations.

Both population size and patch quality affect local extinctions and colonizations.

PubMed

Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

2010-01-07

Currently, the habitat of many species is fragmented, resulting in small local populations with individuals occasionally dispersing between the remaining habitat patches. In a solitary bee metapopulation, extinction probability was related to both local bee population sizes and pollen resources measured as host plant population size. Patch size, on the other hand, had no additional predictive power. The turnover rate of local bee populations in 63 habitat patches over 4 years was high, with 72 extinction events and 31 colonization events, but the pollen plant population was stable with no extinctions or colonizations. Both pollen resources and bee populations had strong and independent effects on extinction probability, but connectivity was not of importance. Colonizations occurred more frequently within larger host plant populations. For metapopulation survival of the bee, large pollen plant populations are essential, independent of current bee population size.

The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data

PubMed Central

Jewett, Ethan M.; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S.

2016-01-01

Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright–Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes. PMID:27550904

Understanding Past Population Dynamics: Bayesian Coalescent-Based Modeling with Covariates

PubMed Central

Gill, Mandev S.; Lemey, Philippe; Bennett, Shannon N.; Biek, Roman; Suchard, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Effective population size characterizes the genetic variability in a population and is a parameter of paramount importance in population genetics and evolutionary biology. Kingman’s coalescent process enables inference of past population dynamics directly from molecular sequence data, and researchers have developed a number of flexible coalescent-based models for Bayesian nonparametric estimation of the effective population size as a function of time. Major goals of demographic reconstruction include identifying driving factors of effective population size, and understanding the association between the effective population size and such factors. Building upon Bayesian nonparametric coalescent-based approaches, we introduce a flexible framework that incorporates time-varying covariates that exploit Gaussian Markov random fields to achieve temporal smoothing of effective population size trajectories. To approximate the posterior distribution, we adapt efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms designed for highly structured Gaussian models. Incorporating covariates into the demographic inference framework enables the modeling of associations between the effective population size and covariates while accounting for uncertainty in population histories. Furthermore, it can lead to more precise estimates of population dynamics. We apply our model to four examples. We reconstruct the demographic history of raccoon rabies in North America and find a significant association with the spatiotemporal spread of the outbreak. Next, we examine the effective population size trajectory of the DENV-4 virus in Puerto Rico along with viral isolate count data and find similar cyclic patterns. We compare the population history of the HIV-1 CRF02_AG clade in Cameroon with HIV incidence and prevalence data and find that the effective population size is more reflective of incidence rate. Finally, we explore the hypothesis that the population dynamics of musk ox during the Late Quaternary period were related to climate change. [Coalescent; effective population size; Gaussian Markov random fields; phylodynamics; phylogenetics; population genetics. PMID:27368344

Genome size differentiates co-occurring populations of the planktonic diatom Ditylum brightwellii (Bacillariophyta)

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Diatoms are one of the most species-rich groups of eukaryotic microbes known. Diatoms are also the only group of eukaryotic micro-algae with a diplontic life history, suggesting that the ancestral diatom switched to a life history dominated by a duplicated genome. A key mechanism of speciation among diatoms could be a propensity for additional stable genome duplications. Across eukaryotic taxa, genome size is directly correlated to cell size and inversely correlated to physiological rates. Differences in relative genome size, cell size, and acclimated growth rates were analyzed in isolates of the diatom Ditylum brightwellii. Ditylum brightwellii consists of two main populations with identical 18s rDNA sequences; one population is distributed globally at temperate latitudes and the second appears to be localized to the Pacific Northwest coast of the USA. These two populations co-occur within the Puget Sound estuary of WA, USA, although their peak abundances differ depending on local conditions. Results All isolates from the more regionally-localized population (population 2) possessed 1.94 ± 0.74 times the amount of DNA, grew more slowly, and were generally larger than isolates from the more globally distributed population (population 1). The ITS1 sequences, cell sizes, and genome sizes of isolates from New Zealand were the same as population 1 isolates from Puget Sound, but their growth rates were within the range of the slower-growing population 2 isolates. Importantly, the observed genome size difference between isolates from the two populations was stable regardless of time in culture or the changes in cell size that accompany the diatom life history. Conclusions The observed two-fold difference in genome size between the D. brightwellii populations suggests that whole genome duplication occurred within cells of population 1 ultimately giving rise to population 2 cells. The apparent regional localization of population 2 is consistent with a recent divergence between the populations, which are likely cryptic species. Genome size variation is known to occur in other diatom genera; we hypothesize that genome duplication may be an active and important mechanism of genetic and physiological diversification and speciation in diatoms. PMID:20044934

Life-History Traits and Population Structure of Pederson Cleaner Shrimps Ancylomenes pedersoni.

PubMed

Gilpin, Jessica A; Chadwick, Nanette E

2017-12-01

Cleaner organisms perform key functional roles in reducing rates of parasitism in marine communities. Pederson cleaner shrimps Ancylomenes pedersoni are major cleaners of reef fishes in the tropical western Atlantic and form obligate symbioses with host sea anemones. Information about their life-history traits would contribute to understanding how symbiosis impacts life-history evolution in crustaceans, but little is known about patterns of growth and reproduction in this anemone shrimp. We quantified growth, sexual reproduction, senescence, and mortality in individuals of A. pedersoni under laboratory conditions and their abundance and population size structure on coral reefs in St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands. Von Bertalanffy growth curves were fitted to the data to determine age-size relationships, and the Beverton-Holt model was used to estimate mortality rates and size at maximum yield. Individuals grew rapidly when young, then slowed their growth after reaching sexual maturity at ~6 months. Individuals were gonochoric, with males attaining significantly smaller body sizes and shorter life spans than did females. Prior to death at <2 years, members of both genders exhibited senescence during which they ceased reproducing, shrank (females only), and decreased their activity levels over ~1-4 weeks. Field populations were abundant and composed mostly of juveniles during both years examined. Populations appeared to be stable but highly dynamic in terms of individuals, reaching maximum yield at 4 months of age. We conclude that obligate symbiosis with large sea anemones and cleaner mutualism with reef fishes both contribute to explaining aspects of the life history of Pederson shrimps, especially their apparent mating system of pure-search polygynandry. This life-history information also provides a scientific basis for sustainable fishery management and aquaculture of this key coral reef organism.

A Statistical Analysis of the Economic Drivers of Battery Energy Storage in Commercial Buildings: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Long, Matthew; Simpkins, Travis; Cutler, Dylan

There is significant interest in using battery energy storage systems (BESS) to reduce peak demand charges, and therefore the life cycle cost of electricity, in commercial buildings. This paper explores the drivers of economic viability of BESS in commercial buildings through statistical analysis. A sample population of buildings was generated, a techno-economic optimization model was used to size and dispatch the BESS, and the resulting optimal BESS sizes were analyzed for relevant predictor variables. Explanatory regression analyses were used to demonstrate that peak demand charges are the most significant predictor of an economically viable battery, and that the shape ofmore » the load profile is the most significant predictor of the size of the battery.« less

A Statistical Analysis of the Economic Drivers of Battery Energy Storage in Commercial Buildings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Long, Matthew; Simpkins, Travis; Cutler, Dylan

There is significant interest in using battery energy storage systems (BESS) to reduce peak demand charges, and therefore the life cycle cost of electricity, in commercial buildings. This paper explores the drivers of economic viability of BESS in commercial buildings through statistical analysis. A sample population of buildings was generated, a techno-economic optimization model was used to size and dispatch the BESS, and the resulting optimal BESS sizes were analyzed for relevant predictor variables. Explanatory regression analyses were used to demonstrate that peak demand charges are the most significant predictor of an economically viable battery, and that the shape ofmore » the load profile is the most significant predictor of the size of the battery.« less

Primary care and health inequality: Difference-in-difference study comparing England and Ontario

PubMed Central

Cookson, Richard; Mondor, Luke; Kringos, Dionne S.; Klazinga, Niek S.

2017-01-01

Background It is not known whether equity-oriented primary care investment that seeks to scale up the delivery of effective care in disadvantaged communities can reduce health inequality within high-income settings that have pre-existing universal primary care systems. We provide some non-randomised controlled evidence by comparing health inequality trends between two similar jurisdictions–one of which implemented equity-oriented primary care investment in the mid-to-late 2000s as part of a cross-government strategy for reducing health inequality (England), and one which invested in primary care without any explicit equity objective (Ontario, Canada). Methods We analysed whole-population data on 32,482 neighbourhoods (with mean population size of approximately 1,500 people) in England, and 18,961 neighbourhoods (with mean population size of approximately 700 people) in Ontario. We examined trends in mortality amenable to healthcare by decile groups of neighbourhood deprivation within each jurisdiction. We used linear models to estimate absolute and relative gaps in amenable mortality between most and least deprived groups, considering the gradient between these extremes, and evaluated difference-in-difference comparisons between the two jurisdictions. Results Inequality trends were comparable in both jurisdictions from 2004–6 but diverged from 2007–11. Compared with Ontario, the absolute gap in amenable mortality in England fell between 2004–6 and 2007–11 by 19.8 per 100,000 population (95% CI: 4.8 to 34.9); and the relative gap in amenable mortality fell by 10 percentage points (95% CI: 1 to 19). The biggest divergence occurred in the most deprived decile group of neighbourhoods. Discussion In comparison to Ontario, England succeeded in reducing absolute socioeconomic gaps in mortality amenable to healthcare from 2007 to 2011, and preventing them from growing in relative terms. Equity-oriented primary care reform in England in the mid-to-late 2000s may have helped to reduce socioeconomic inequality in health, though other explanations for this divergence are possible and further research is needed on the specific causal mechanisms. PMID:29182652

Using multiple data types and integrated population models to improve our knowledge of apex predator population dynamics.

PubMed

Bled, Florent; Belant, Jerrold L; Van Daele, Lawrence J; Svoboda, Nathan; Gustine, David; Hilderbrand, Grant; Barnes, Victor G

2017-11-01

Current management of large carnivores is informed using a variety of parameters, methods, and metrics; however, these data are typically considered independently. Sharing information among data types based on the underlying ecological, and recognizing observation biases, can improve estimation of individual and global parameters. We present a general integrated population model (IPM), specifically designed for brown bears ( Ursus arctos ), using three common data types for bear ( U . spp.) populations: repeated counts, capture-mark-recapture, and litter size. We considered factors affecting ecological and observation processes for these data. We assessed the practicality of this approach on a simulated population and compared estimates from our model to values used for simulation and results from count data only. We then present a practical application of this general approach adapted to the constraints of a case study using historical data available for brown bears on Kodiak Island, Alaska, USA. The IPM provided more accurate and precise estimates than models accounting for repeated count data only, with credible intervals including the true population 94% and 5% of the time, respectively. For the Kodiak population, we estimated annual average litter size (within one year after birth) to vary between 0.45 [95% credible interval: 0.43; 0.55] and 1.59 [1.55; 1.82]. We detected a positive relationship between salmon availability and adult survival, with survival probabilities greater for females than males. Survival probabilities increased from cubs to yearlings to dependent young ≥2 years old and decreased with litter size. Linking multiple information sources based on ecological and observation mechanisms can provide more accurate and precise estimates, to better inform management. IPMs can also reduce data collection efforts by sharing information among agencies and management units. Our approach responds to an increasing need in bear populations' management and can be readily adapted to other large carnivores.

Demographic histories of adaptively diverged riparian and non-riparian species of Ainsliaea (Asteraceae) inferred from coalescent analyses using multiple nuclear loci.

PubMed

Mitsui, Yuki; Setoguchi, Hiroaki

2012-12-28

Understanding demographic histories, such as divergence time, patterns of gene flow, and population size changes, in ecologically diverging lineages provide implications for the process and maintenance of population differentiation by ecological adaptation. This study addressed the demographic histories in two independently derived lineages of flood-resistant riparian plants and their non-riparian relatives [Ainsliaea linearis (riparian) and A. apiculata (non-riparian); A. oblonga (riparian) and A. macroclinidioides (non-riparian); Asteraceae] using an isolation-with-migration (IM) model based on variation at 10 nuclear DNA loci. The highest posterior probabilities of the divergence time parameters were estimated to be ca. 25,000 years ago for A. linearis and A. apiculata and ca. 9000 years ago for A. oblonga and A. macroclinidioides, although the confidence intervals of the parameters had broad ranges. The likelihood ratio tests detected evidence of historical gene flow between both riparian/non-riparian species pairs. The riparian populations showed lower levels of genetic diversity and a significant reduction in effective population sizes compared to the non-riparian populations and their ancestral populations. This study showed the recent origins of flood-resistant riparian plants, which are remarkable examples of plant ecological adaptation. The recent divergence and genetic signatures of historical gene flow among riparian/non-riparian species implied that they underwent morphological and ecological differentiation within short evolutionary timescales and have maintained their species boundaries in the face of gene flow. Comparative analyses of adaptive divergence in two sets of riparian/non-riparian lineages suggested that strong natural selection by flooding had frequently reduced the genetic diversity and size of riparian populations through genetic drift, possibly leading to fixation of adaptive traits in riparian populations. The two sets of riparian/non-riparian lineages showed contrasting patterns of gene flow and genetic differentiation, implying that each lineage showed different degrees of reproductive isolation and that they had experienced unique evolutionary and demographic histories in the process of adaptive divergence.

Adaptively resizing populations: Algorithm, analysis, and first results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Robert E.; Smuda, Ellen

1993-01-01

Deciding on an appropriate population size for a given Genetic Algorithm (GA) application can often be critical to the algorithm's success. Too small, and the GA can fall victim to sampling error, affecting the efficacy of its search. Too large, and the GA wastes computational resources. Although advice exists for sizing GA populations, much of this advice involves theoretical aspects that are not accessible to the novice user. An algorithm for adaptively resizing GA populations is suggested. This algorithm is based on recent theoretical developments that relate population size to schema fitness variance. The suggested algorithm is developed theoretically, and simulated with expected value equations. The algorithm is then tested on a problem where population sizing can mislead the GA. The work presented suggests that the population sizing algorithm may be a viable way to eliminate the population sizing decision from the application of GA's.

Estimation of linkage disequilibrium and analysis of genetic diversity in Korean chicken lines.

PubMed

Seo, Dongwon; Lee, Doo Ho; Choi, Nuri; Sudrajad, Pita; Lee, Seung-Hwan; Lee, Jun-Heon

2018-01-01

The development of genetic markers for animal breeding is an effective strategy to reduce the time and cost required to improve economically important traits. To implement genomic selection in the multibreed chicken population of Korea, an understanding of the linkage disequilibrium (LD) status of the target population is essential. In this study, we performed population genetic analyses to investigate LD decay, the effective population size, and breed diversity using 600K high-density single nucleotide polymorphism genotypes of 189 native chickens in 14 lines (including Korean native chicken, imported and adapted purebred and commercial chickens). The results indicated that commercial native chickens have less calculated LD (average, r2 = 0.13-0.26) and purebred native chickens have more calculated LD (average, r2 = 0.24-0.37) across the entire genome. The effective population sizes of the examined lines showed patterns opposite to those of population LD. The phylogeny and admixture analyses showed that commercial and purebred chickens were well distinguished, except for Rhode Island Red (RIR) purebred lines of NC (NIAS_RIR_C) and ND (NIAS_RIR_D). These lines are difficult to distinguish clearly because they originated from the same respective breeds. The results of this study may provide important information for the development of genetic markers that can be used in breeding to improve the economic traits of native chickens.

Estimation of linkage disequilibrium and analysis of genetic diversity in Korean chicken lines

PubMed Central

Seo, Dongwon; Lee, Doo Ho; Choi, Nuri; Sudrajad, Pita; Lee, Seung-Hwan

2018-01-01

The development of genetic markers for animal breeding is an effective strategy to reduce the time and cost required to improve economically important traits. To implement genomic selection in the multibreed chicken population of Korea, an understanding of the linkage disequilibrium (LD) status of the target population is essential. In this study, we performed population genetic analyses to investigate LD decay, the effective population size, and breed diversity using 600K high-density single nucleotide polymorphism genotypes of 189 native chickens in 14 lines (including Korean native chicken, imported and adapted purebred and commercial chickens). The results indicated that commercial native chickens have less calculated LD (average, r2 = 0.13–0.26) and purebred native chickens have more calculated LD (average, r2 = 0.24–0.37) across the entire genome. The effective population sizes of the examined lines showed patterns opposite to those of population LD. The phylogeny and admixture analyses showed that commercial and purebred chickens were well distinguished, except for Rhode Island Red (RIR) purebred lines of NC (NIAS_RIR_C) and ND (NIAS_RIR_D). These lines are difficult to distinguish clearly because they originated from the same respective breeds. The results of this study may provide important information for the development of genetic markers that can be used in breeding to improve the economic traits of native chickens. PMID:29425208

The minimum area requirements (MAR) for giant panda: an empirical study

PubMed Central

Qing, Jing; Yang, Zhisong; He, Ke; Zhang, Zejun; Gu, Xiaodong; Yang, Xuyu; Zhang, Wen; Yang, Biao; Qi, Dunwu; Dai, Qiang

2016-01-01

Habitat fragmentation can reduce population viability, especially for area-sensitive species. The Minimum Area Requirements (MAR) of a population is the area required for the population’s long-term persistence. In this study, the response of occupancy probability of giant pandas against habitat patch size was studied in five of the six mountain ranges inhabited by giant panda, which cover over 78% of the global distribution of giant panda habitat. The probability of giant panda occurrence was positively associated with habitat patch area, and the observed increase in occupancy probability with patch size was higher than that due to passive sampling alone. These results suggest that the giant panda is an area-sensitive species. The MAR for giant panda was estimated to be 114.7 km2 based on analysis of its occupancy probability. Giant panda habitats appear more fragmented in the three southern mountain ranges, while they are large and more continuous in the other two. Establishing corridors among habitat patches can mitigate habitat fragmentation, but expanding habitat patch sizes is necessary in mountain ranges where fragmentation is most intensive. PMID:27929520

Butterfly survival on an isolated island by improved grip

PubMed Central

Duplouy, Anne; Hanski, Ilkka

2013-01-01

On small isolated islands, natural selection is expected to reduce the dispersal capacity of organisms, as short distances do not require a high rate of dispersal, which might lead to accidental emigration from the population. In addition, individuals foregoing the high cost of maintaining flight capacity may instead allocate resources to other functions. However, in butterflies and many other insects, flight is necessary not only for dispersal but also for most other activities. A weakly flying individual would probably do worse and have an elevated rather than reduced probability of accidental emigration. Here, we report results consistent with the hypothesis that a butterfly population on an isolated island, instead of having lost its flight capacity, has evolved better grip to resist the force of wind and to avoid being blown off the island. Our study suggests that local adaptation has occurred in this population in spite of its very small size (Ne ∼ 100), complete isolation, low genetic variation and high genetic load. PMID:23445946

NEIGHBORHOOD IMMIGRATION AND NATIVE OUT-MIGRATION

PubMed Central

Crowder, Kyle; Hall, Matthew; Tolnay, Stewart E.

2011-01-01

This study combines data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics with data from four censuses to examine the effects of foreign-born populations in the immediate neighborhood of residence and surrounding neighborhoods on the residential mobility decisions of native-born black and white householders. We find that the likelihood of out-mobility for native householders is significantly and positively associated with the relative size of, and increases in, the immigrant population in the neighborhood. Consistent with theoretical arguments related to the distance dependence of mobility, large concentrations of immigrants in surrounding areas reduce native out-mobility, presumably by reducing the attractiveness of the most likely mobility destinations. A sizable share of local immigration effects can be explained by the mobility-related characteristics of native-born individuals living in immigrant-populated areas, but the racial composition of the neighborhood (for native whites) and local housing market conditions (for native blacks) also are important mediating factors. The implications of these patterns for processes of neighborhood change and broader patterns of residential segregation are discussed. PMID:21731082

Partial connectivity increases cultural accumulation within groups.

PubMed

Derex, Maxime; Boyd, Robert

2016-03-15

Complex technologies used in most human societies are beyond the inventive capacities of individuals. Instead, they result from a cumulative process in which innovations are gradually added to existing cultural traits across many generations. Recent work suggests that a population's ability to develop complex technologies is positively affected by its size and connectedness. Here, we present a simple computer-based experiment that compares the accumulation of innovations by fully and partially connected groups of the same size in a complex fitness landscape. We find that the propensity to learn from successful individuals drastically reduces cultural diversity within fully connected groups. In comparison, partially connected groups produce more diverse solutions, and this diversity allows them to develop complex solutions that are never produced in fully connected groups. These results suggest that explanations of ancestral patterns of cultural complexity may need to consider levels of population fragmentation and interaction patterns between partially isolated groups.

Low genetic variation and evidence of limited dispersal in the regionally important Belize manatee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunter, M.E.; Auil-Gomez, N. E.; Tucker, K.P.; Bonde, R.K.; Powell, J.; McGuire, P.M.

2010-01-01

The Antillean subspecies of the West Indian manatee Trichechus manatus is found throughout Central and South America and the Caribbean. Because of severe hunting pressure during the 17th through 19th centuries, only small populations of the once widespread aquatic mammal remain. Fortunately, protections in Belize reduced hunting in the 1930s and allowed the country's manatee population to become the largest breeding population in the Wider Caribbean. However, increasing and emerging anthropogenic threats such as coastal development, pollution, watercraft collision and net entanglement represent challenges to this ecologically important population. To inform conservation and management decisions, a comprehensive molecular investigation of the genetic diversity, relatedness and population structure of the Belize manatee population was conducted using mitochondrial and microsatellite DNA. Compared with other mammal populations, a low degree of genetic diversity was detected (HE=0.455; NA=3.4), corresponding to the small population size and long-term exploitation. Manatees from the Belize City Cayes and Southern Lagoon system were genetically different, with microsatellite and mitochondrial FST values of 0.029 and 0.078, respectively (P≤0.05). This, along with the distinct habitats and threats, indicates that separate protection of these two groups would best preserve the region's diversity. The Belize population and Florida subspecies appear to be unrelated with microsatellite and mitochondrial FST values of 0.141 and 0.63, respectively (P≤0.001), supporting the subspecies designations and suggesting low vagility throughout the northern Caribbean habitat. Further monitoring and protection may allow an increase in the Belize manatee genetic diversity and population size. A large and expanding Belize population could potentially assist in the recovery of other threatened or functionally extinct Central American Antillean manatee populations.

State-space modeling of population sizes and trends in Nihoa Finch and Millerbird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gorresen, P. Marcos; Brinck, Kevin W.; Camp, Richard J.; Farmer, Chris; Plentovich, Sheldon M.; Banko, Paul C.

2016-01-01

Both of the 2 passerines endemic to Nihoa Island, Hawai‘i, USA—the Nihoa Millerbird (Acrocephalus familiaris kingi) and Nihoa Finch (Telespiza ultima)—are listed as endangered by federal and state agencies. Their abundances have been estimated by irregularly implemented fixed-width strip-transect sampling from 1967 to 2012, from which area-based extrapolation of the raw counts produced highly variable abundance estimates for both species. To evaluate an alternative survey method and improve abundance estimates, we conducted variable-distance point-transect sampling between 2010 and 2014. We compared our results to those obtained from strip-transect samples. In addition, we applied state-space models to derive improved estimates of population size and trends from the legacy time series of strip-transect counts. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and occurred in all or nearly all available habitat. Population trends for Nihoa Millerbird were inconclusive because of high within-year variance. Trends for Nihoa Finch were positive, particularly since the early 1990s. Distance-based analysis of point-transect counts produced mean estimates of abundance similar to those from strip-transects but was generally more precise. However, both survey methods produced biologically unrealistic variability between years. State-space modeling of the long-term time series of abundances obtained from strip-transect counts effectively reduced uncertainty in both within- and between-year estimates of population size, and allowed short-term changes in abundance trajectories to be smoothed into a long-term trend.

Contrasting effects of temperature and precipitation change on amphibian phenology, abundance and performance.

PubMed

Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Maiorano, Luigi

2016-07-01

Climate change is determining a generalized phenological advancement, and amphibians are among the taxa showing the strongest phenological responsiveness to warming temperatures. Amphibians are strongly influenced by climate change, but we do not have a clear picture of how climate influences important parameters of amphibian populations, such as abundance, survival, breeding success and morphology. Furthermore, the relative impact of temperature and precipitation change remains underappreciated. We used Bayesian meta-analysis and meta-regression to quantify the impact of temperature and precipitation change on amphibian phenology, abundance, individual features and performance. We obtained effect sizes from studies performed in five continents. Temperature increase was the major driver of phenological advancement, while the impact of precipitation on phenology was weak. Conversely, population dynamics was mostly determined by precipitation: negative trends were associated with drying regimes. The impact of precipitation on abundance was particularly strong in tropical areas, while the importance of temperature was feeble. Both temperature and precipitation influenced parameters representing breeding performance, morphology, developmental rate and survival, but the response was highly heterogeneous among species. For instance, warming temperature increased body size in some species, and decreased size in others. Similarly, rainy periods increased survival of some species and reduced the survival of others. Our study showed contrasting impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on amphibian populations. Both climatic parameters strongly influenced amphibian performance, but temperature was the major determinant of the phenological changes, while precipitation had the major role on population dynamics, with alarming declines associated with drying trends.

Rapid population divergence in thermal reaction norms for an invading species: breaking the temperature-size rule.

PubMed

Kingsolver, J G; Massie, K R; Ragland, G J; Smith, M H

2007-05-01

The temperature-size rule is a common pattern of phenotypic plasticity in which higher temperature during development results in a smaller adult body size (i.e. a thermal reaction norm with negative slope). Examples and exceptions to the rule are known in multiple groups of organisms, but rapid population differentiation in the temperature-size rule has not been explored. Here we examine the genetic and parental contributions to population differentiation in thermal reaction norms for size, development time and survival in the Cabbage White Butterfly Pieris rapae, for two geographical populations that have likely diverged within the past 150 years. We used split-sibship experiments with two temperature treatments (warm and cool) for P. rapae from Chapel Hill, NC, and from Seattle, WA. Mixed-effect model analyses demonstrate significant genetic differences between NC and WA populations for adult size and for thermal reaction norms for size. Mean adult mass was 12-24% greater in NC than in WA populations for both temperature treatments; mean size was unaffected or decreased with temperature (the temperature-size rule) for the WA population, but size increased with temperature for the NC population. Our study shows that the temperature-size rule and related thermal reaction norms can evolve rapidly within species in natural field conditions. Rapid evolutionary divergence argues against the existence of a simple, general mechanistic constraint as the underlying cause of the temperature-size rule.

Estimating population sizes for elusive animals: the forest elephants of Kakum National Park, Ghana.

PubMed

Eggert, L S; Eggert, J A; Woodruff, D S

2003-06-01

African forest elephants are difficult to observe in the dense vegetation, and previous studies have relied upon indirect methods to estimate population sizes. Using multilocus genotyping of noninvasively collected samples, we performed a genetic survey of the forest elephant population at Kakum National Park, Ghana. We estimated population size, sex ratio and genetic variability from our data, then combined this information with field observations to divide the population into age groups. Our population size estimate was very close to that obtained using dung counts, the most commonly used indirect method of estimating the population sizes of forest elephant populations. As their habitat is fragmented by expanding human populations, management will be increasingly important to the persistence of forest elephant populations. The data that can be obtained from noninvasively collected samples will help managers plan for the conservation of this keystone species.

Determination of the optimal sample size for a clinical trial accounting for the population size.

PubMed

Stallard, Nigel; Miller, Frank; Day, Simon; Hee, Siew Wan; Madan, Jason; Zohar, Sarah; Posch, Martin

2017-07-01

The problem of choosing a sample size for a clinical trial is a very common one. In some settings, such as rare diseases or other small populations, the large sample sizes usually associated with the standard frequentist approach may be infeasible, suggesting that the sample size chosen should reflect the size of the population under consideration. Incorporation of the population size is possible in a decision-theoretic approach either explicitly by assuming that the population size is fixed and known, or implicitly through geometric discounting of the gain from future patients reflecting the expected population size. This paper develops such approaches. Building on previous work, an asymptotic expression is derived for the sample size for single and two-arm clinical trials in the general case of a clinical trial with a primary endpoint with a distribution of one parameter exponential family form that optimizes a utility function that quantifies the cost and gain per patient as a continuous function of this parameter. It is shown that as the size of the population, N, or expected size, N∗ in the case of geometric discounting, becomes large, the optimal trial size is O(N1/2) or O(N∗1/2). The sample size obtained from the asymptotic expression is also compared with the exact optimal sample size in examples with responses with Bernoulli and Poisson distributions, showing that the asymptotic approximations can also be reasonable in relatively small sample sizes. © 2016 The Author. Biometrical Journal published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Conserving the Birds of Uganda’s Banana-Coffee Arc: Land Sparing and Land Sharing Compared

PubMed Central

Hulme, Mark F.; Vickery, Juliet A.; Green, Rhys E.; Phalan, Ben; Chamberlain, Dan E.; Pomeroy, Derek E.; Nalwanga, Dianah; Mushabe, David; Katebaka, Raymond; Bolwig, Simon; Atkinson, Philip W.

2013-01-01

Reconciling the aims of feeding an ever more demanding human population and conserving biodiversity is a difficult challenge. Here, we explore potential solutions by assessing whether land sparing (farming for high yield, potentially enabling the protection of non-farmland habitat), land sharing (lower yielding farming with more biodiversity within farmland) or a mixed strategy would result in better bird conservation outcomes for a specified level of agricultural production. We surveyed forest and farmland study areas in southern Uganda, measuring the population density of 256 bird species and agricultural yield: food energy and gross income. Parametric non-linear functions relating density to yield were fitted. Species were identified as “winners” (total population size always at least as great with agriculture present as without it) or “losers” (total population sometimes or always reduced with agriculture present) for a range of targets for total agricultural production. For each target we determined whether each species would be predicted to have a higher total population with land sparing, land sharing or with any intermediate level of sparing at an intermediate yield. We found that most species were expected to have their highest total populations with land sparing, particularly loser species and species with small global range sizes. Hence, more species would benefit from high-yield farming if used as part of a strategy to reduce forest loss than from low-yield farming and land sharing, as has been found in Ghana and India in a previous study. We caution against advocacy for high-yield farming alone as a means to deliver land sparing if it is done without strong protection for natural habitats, other ecosystem services and social welfare. Instead, we suggest that conservationists explore how conservation and agricultural policies can be better integrated to deliver land sparing by, for example, combining land-use planning and agronomic support for small farmers. PMID:23390501

Phenotypic plasticity in clutch size regulation among populations of a potential invasive fruit fly from environments that vary in host heterogeneity and isolation.

PubMed

Aluja, M; Birke, A; Díaz-Fleischer, F; Rull, J

2018-05-21

Phenotypic plasticity is thought to evolve in response to environmental unpredictability and can shield genotypes from selection. However, selection can also act on plastic traits. Egg-laying behaviour, including clutch size regulation, is a plastic behavioural trait among tephritid fruit flies. We compared plasticity in clutch size regulation among females of Anastrepha ludens populations stemming from environments that differed in the degree of predictability in egg-laying opportunities. Clutch size regulation in response to hosts of different sizes was compared among flies from (a) a wild, highly isolated population, (b) a wild population that switches seasonally from a small wild host fruit that varies greatly in abundance to an abundant large-sized commercial host, and (c) a laboratory population. Flies from all three populations adjusted clutch number and size according to host size. However, flies from the heterogeneous wild environment were more plastic in adjusting clutch size than flies from agricultural settings that also laid fewer eggs; yet both populations were more plastic in adjusting clutch size in line with host size when compared with laboratory females. When wild and orchard females encountered the largest host, clutch size was extremely variable and egg regulation did not follow the same trend. Heterogeneity in host availability in space and time appears to be as important as seasonal variation in host size in maintaining plastic clutch size regulation behaviour. In stable environments, there was a clear reduction in the plasticity of these traits.

Mandatory desexing of dogs: one step in the right direction to reduce the risk of dog bite? A systematic review.

PubMed

D'Onise, Katina; Hazel, Susan; Caraguel, Charles

2017-06-01

Preventing dog bites is an intractable problem given the complex dog bite injury environment. Desexing of dogs has the opportunity of creating a safer injury environment, given the potential links between desexing and behaviour change in dogs. A systematic review of the literature was conducted to examine the evidence for desexing of dogs to reduce dog bite risk within a population health paradigm. Medline and CAB Abstracts were searched for studies that reported data on the association of dog neuter status with the risk of dog bite. All definitions of dog bite were included and all empirical studies were included in the review, limited to those published in English. Quality appraisal and data extraction were based on the 2013 evidence-based practice and critical appraisal tool from the University of Auckland. Five out of six observational studies, from four study populations found evidence that intact dogs were associated with an increased risk of dog bite compared with desexed dogs. The effect sizes ranged across the studies and given the heterogeneity of the studies no single effect size on the association between desexing and dog bite risk could be estimated. There is consistent evidence that desexing dogs is associated with a reduced risk of dog bite, although the studies reflect association and may not be causal. Although recent publications have suggested desexing is associated with health and behavioural costs in some breeds, population level evidence supports desexed dogs having a longer lifespan, and being less likely to wander with the added benefit of reducing unwanted litters. Thus, mandatory desexing presents a possible opportunity for prevention of dog bites expanding dog bite prevention beyond an education-only approach. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Expected effects of reducing Oestrus ovis L. mature larval weight on adult populations.

PubMed

Cepeda-Palacios, R; Frugère, S; Dorchies, P

2000-06-27

In order to estimate the effects of eventual reductions in larval weight (LW) of Oestrus ovis L. as a measure of control, the correlation between mature LW and adult fly length (AL) in laboratory specimens (n=150) was calculated. The regression equation AL=5.62+10.65LW (r(2)=0.76) was obtained. This equation was then applied to estimate the mature LW of wild larvipositing females (n=51) to predict the minimum mature LW at which fly viability would be compromised. The critical weight, 0.28 g (standard error limits 0. 235, 0.323), was obtained from a small fly measuring 8.6mm in length. Data from 383 mature third instars were used to estimate, by statistical analysis, the expected effects of decreasing the mature LW on subsequent fly population size. A considerable mean reduction (38%) in adult populations might be achieved by a 40% reduction of mature LW, but this eventual reduction may be temporary due to the high reproductive rate in this species. Sex differences in mature LW and fly size are also reported.

Genetic structure and conservation of Mountain Lions in the South-Brazilian Atlantic Rain Forest.

PubMed

Castilho, Camila S; Marins-Sá, Luiz G; Benedet, Rodrigo C; Freitas, Thales R O

2012-01-01

The Brazilian Atlantic Rain Forest, one of the most endangered ecosystems worldwide, is also among the most important hotspots as regards biodiversity. Through intensive logging, the initial area has been reduced to around 12% of its original size. In this study we investigated the genetic variability and structure of the mountain lion, Puma concolor. Using 18 microsatellite loci we analyzed evidence of allele dropout, null alleles and stuttering, calculated the number of allele/locus, PIC, observed and expected heterozygosity, linkage disequilibrium, Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, F(IS), effective population size and genetic structure (MICROCHECKER, CERVUS, GENEPOP, FSTAT, ARLEQUIN, ONESAMP, LDNe, PCAGEN, GENECLASS software), we also determine whether there was evidence of a bottleneck (HYBRIDLAB, BOTTLENECK software) that might influence the future viability of the population in south Brazil. 106 alleles were identified, with the number of alleles/locus ranging from 2 to 11. Mean observed heterozygosity, mean number of alleles and polymorphism information content were 0.609, 5.89, and 0.6255, respectively. This population presented evidence of a recent bottleneck and loss of genetic variation. Persistent regional poaching constitutes an increasing in the extinction risk.

Bone health in Down syndrome.

PubMed

García-Hoyos, Marta; Riancho, José Antonio; Valero, Carmen

2017-07-21

Patients with Down syndrome have a number of risk factors that theoretically could predispose them to osteoporosis, such as early aging, development disorders, reduced physical activity, limited sun exposure, frequent comorbidities and use of drug therapies which could affect bone metabolism. In addition, the bone mass of these people may be affected by their anthropometric and body composition peculiarities. In general terms, studies in adults with Down syndrome reported that these people have lower areal bone mineral density (g/cm 2 ) than the general population. However, most of them have not taken the smaller bone size of people with Down syndrome into account. In fact, when body mineral density is adjusted by bone size and we obtain volumetric body mineral density (g/cm 3 ), the difference between both populations disappears. On the other hand, although people with Down syndrome have risk factor of hypovitaminosis D, the results of studies regarding 25(OH)D in this population are not clear. Likewise, the studies about biochemical bone markers or the prevalence of fractures are not conclusive. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Selective loss of polymorphic mating types is associated with rapid phenotypic evolution during morphic speciation.

PubMed

Corl, Ammon; Davis, Alison R; Kuchta, Shawn R; Sinervo, Barry

2010-03-02

Polymorphism may play an important role in speciation because new species could originate from the distinctive morphs observed in polymorphic populations. However, much remains to be understood about the process by which morphs found new species. To detail the steps of this mode of speciation, we studied the geographic variation and evolutionary history of a throat color polymorphism that distinguishes the "rock-paper-scissors" mating strategies of the side-blotched lizard, Uta stansburiana. We found that the polymorphism is geographically widespread and has been maintained for millions of years. However, there are many populations with reduced numbers of throat color morphs. Phylogenetic reconstruction showed that the polymorphism is ancestral, but it has been independently lost eight times, often giving rise to morphologically distinct subspecies/species. Changes to the polymorphism likely involved selection because the allele for one particular male strategy, the "sneaker" morph, has been lost in all cases. Polymorphism loss was associated with accelerated evolution of male size, female size, and sexual dimorphism, which suggests that polymorphism loss can promote rapid divergence among populations and aid species formation.

Homoplasy and mutation model at microsatellite loci and their consequences for population genetics analysis.

PubMed

Estoup, Arnaud; Jarne, Philippe; Cornuet, Jean-Marie

2002-09-01

Homoplasy has recently attracted the attention of population geneticists, as a consequence of the popularity of highly variable stepwise mutating markers such as microsatellites. Microsatellite alleles generally refer to DNA fragments of different size (electromorphs). Electromorphs are identical in state (i.e. have identical size), but are not necessarily identical by descent due to convergent mutation(s). Homoplasy occurring at microsatellites is thus referred to as size homoplasy. Using new analytical developments and computer simulations, we first evaluate the effect of the mutation rate, the mutation model, the effective population size and the time of divergence between populations on size homoplasy at the within and between population levels. We then review the few experimental studies that used various molecular techniques to detect size homoplasious events at some microsatellite loci. The relationship between this molecularly accessible size homoplasy size and the actual amount of size homoplasy is not trivial, the former being considerably influenced by the molecular structure of microsatellite core sequences. In a third section, we show that homoplasy at microsatellite electromorphs does not represent a significant problem for many types of population genetics analyses realized by molecular ecologists, the large amount of variability at microsatellite loci often compensating for their homoplasious evolution. The situations where size homoplasy may be more problematic involve high mutation rates and large population sizes together with strong allele size constraints.

Warm water temperatures and shifts in seasonality increase trout recruitment but only moderately decrease adult size in western North American tailwaters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dibble, Kimberly L.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Kennedy, Theodore A.

2018-01-01

Dams throughout western North America have altered thermal regimes in rivers, creating cold, clear “tailwaters” in which trout populations thrive. Ongoing drought in the region has led to highly publicized reductions in reservoir storage and raised concerns about potential reductions in downstream flows. Large changes in riverine thermal regimes may also occur as reservoir water levels drop, yet this potential impact has received far less attention. We analyzed historic water temperature and fish population data to anticipate how trout may respond to future changes in the magnitude and seasonality of river temperatures. We found that summer temperatures were inversely related to reservoir water level, with warm temperatures associated with reduced storage and with dams operated as run-of-river units. Variation in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) recruitment was linked to water temperature variation, with a 5-fold increase in recruitment occurring at peak summer temperatures (18 °C vs. 7 °C) and a 2.5-fold increase in recruitment when peak temperatures occurred in summer rather than fall. Conversely, adult trout size was only moderately related to temperature. Rainbow and brown trout (Salmo trutta) size decreased by ~24 mm and 20 mm, respectively, as mean annual and peak summer temperatures increased. Further, rainbow trout size decreased by ~29 mm with an earlier onset of cold winter temperatures. While increased recruitment may be the more likely outcome of a warmer and drier climate, density-dependent growth constraints could exacerbate temperature-dependent growth reductions. As such, managers may consider implementing flows to reduce recruitment or altering infrastructure to maintain coldwater reservoir releases.

The Relation Between Inflation in Type-I and Type-II Error Rate and Population Divergence in Genome-Wide Association Analysis of Multi-Ethnic Populations.

PubMed

Derks, E M; Zwinderman, A H; Gamazon, E R

2017-05-01

Population divergence impacts the degree of population stratification in Genome Wide Association Studies. We aim to: (i) investigate type-I error rate as a function of population divergence (F ST ) in multi-ethnic (admixed) populations; (ii) evaluate the statistical power and effect size estimates; and (iii) investigate the impact of population stratification on the results of gene-based analyses. Quantitative phenotypes were simulated. Type-I error rate was investigated for Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) with varying levels of F ST between the ancestral European and African populations. Type-II error rate was investigated for a SNP characterized by a high value of F ST . In all tests, genomic MDS components were included to correct for population stratification. Type-I and type-II error rate was adequately controlled in a population that included two distinct ethnic populations but not in admixed samples. Statistical power was reduced in the admixed samples. Gene-based tests showed no residual inflation in type-I error rate.

The interaction of neutral evolutionary processes with climatically-driven adaptive changes in the 3D shape of the human os coxae.

PubMed

Betti, Lia; von Cramon-Taubadel, Noreen; Manica, Andrea; Lycett, Stephen J

2014-08-01

Differences in the breadth of the pelvis among modern human populations and among extinct hominin species have often been interpreted in the light of thermoregulatory adaptation, whereby a larger pelvic girdle would help preserve body temperature in cold environments while a narrower pelvis would help dissipate heat in tropical climates. There is, however, a theoretical problem in interpreting a pattern of variation as evidence of selection without first accounting for the effects of neutral evolutionary processes (i.e., mutation, genetic drift and migration). Here, we analyse 3D configurations of 27 landmarks on the os coxae of 1494 modern human individuals representing 30 male and 23 female populations from five continents and a range of climatic conditions. We test for the effects of climate on the size and shape of the pelvic bone, while explicitly accounting for population history (i.e., geographically-mediated gene flow and genetic drift). We find that neutral processes account for a substantial proportion of shape variance in the human os coxae in both sexes. Beyond the neutral pattern due to population history, temperature is a significant predictor of shape and size variation in the os coxae, at least in males. The effect of climate on the shape of the pelvic bone, however, is comparatively limited, explaining only a small percentage of shape variation in males and females. In accordance with previous hypotheses, the size of the os coxae tends to increase with decreasing temperature, although the significance of the association is reduced when population history is taken into account. In conclusion, the shape and size of the human os coxae reflect both neutral evolutionary processes and climatically-driven adaptive changes. Neutral processes have a substantial effect on pelvic variation, suggesting such factors will need to be taken into account in future studies of human and fossil hominin coxal variation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data.

PubMed

Jewett, Ethan M; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S

2016-11-01

Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright-Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Peromyscus ranges at high and low population densities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stickel, L.F.

1960-01-01

Live-trapping studies at the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Maryland, showed that the ranges of wood mice were larger when the population density was lower and smaller when the population density was higher. When the population density was about 1.3 male mice per acre in June 1954, the average distance recorded between traps after four or more captures was 258 feet. When the population density was about 4.1 male mice per acre in June 1957, the average distance was 119 feet. Differences were statistically significant. Females were so scarce at the low that comparisons could not be made for them. Examples from the literature also show that home range of a species may vary with population density. Other examples show that the range may vary with habitat, breeding condition and food supply. These variations in range size reduce the reliability of censuses in which relative methods are used: Lines of traps sample the population of a larger area when ranges are large than they do when ranges are small. Direct comparisons therefore will err in some degree. Error may be introduced also when line-trap data are transformed to per acre figures on the basis of home-range estimates made by area-trapping at another place or time. Variation in range size also can make it necessary to change area-trapping plans, for larger quadrants are needed when ranges are larger. It my be necessary to set traps closer together when ranges are small than when ranges are large.

Research on Grid Size Suitability of Gridded Population Distribution in Urban Area: A Case Study in Urban Area of Xuanzhou District, China.

PubMed

Dong, Nan; Yang, Xiaohuan; Cai, Hongyan; Xu, Fengjiao

2017-01-01

The research on the grid size suitability is important to provide improvement in accuracies of gridded population distribution. It contributes to reveal the actual spatial distribution of population. However, currently little research has been done in this area. Many well-modeled gridded population dataset are basically built at a single grid scale. If the grid cell size is not appropriate, it will result in spatial information loss or data redundancy. Therefore, in order to capture the desired spatial variation of population within the area of interest, it is necessary to conduct research on grid size suitability. This study summarized three expressed levels to analyze grid size suitability, which include location expressed level, numeric information expressed level, and spatial relationship expressed level. This study elaborated the reasons for choosing the five indexes to explore expression suitability. These five indexes are consistency measure, shape index rate, standard deviation of population density, patches diversity index, and the average local variance. The suitable grid size was determined by constructing grid size-indicator value curves and suitable grid size scheme. Results revealed that the three expressed levels on 10m grid scale are satisfying. And the population distribution raster data with 10m grid size provide excellent accuracy without loss. The 10m grid size is recommended as the appropriate scale for generating a high-quality gridded population distribution in our study area. Based on this preliminary study, it indicates the five indexes are coordinated with each other and reasonable and effective to assess grid size suitability. We also suggest choosing these five indexes in three perspectives of expressed level to carry out the research on grid size suitability of gridded population distribution.

Research on Grid Size Suitability of Gridded Population Distribution in Urban Area: A Case Study in Urban Area of Xuanzhou District, China

PubMed Central

Dong, Nan; Yang, Xiaohuan; Cai, Hongyan; Xu, Fengjiao

2017-01-01

The research on the grid size suitability is important to provide improvement in accuracies of gridded population distribution. It contributes to reveal the actual spatial distribution of population. However, currently little research has been done in this area. Many well-modeled gridded population dataset are basically built at a single grid scale. If the grid cell size is not appropriate, it will result in spatial information loss or data redundancy. Therefore, in order to capture the desired spatial variation of population within the area of interest, it is necessary to conduct research on grid size suitability. This study summarized three expressed levels to analyze grid size suitability, which include location expressed level, numeric information expressed level, and spatial relationship expressed level. This study elaborated the reasons for choosing the five indexes to explore expression suitability. These five indexes are consistency measure, shape index rate, standard deviation of population density, patches diversity index, and the average local variance. The suitable grid size was determined by constructing grid size-indicator value curves and suitable grid size scheme. Results revealed that the three expressed levels on 10m grid scale are satisfying. And the population distribution raster data with 10m grid size provide excellent accuracy without loss. The 10m grid size is recommended as the appropriate scale for generating a high-quality gridded population distribution in our study area. Based on this preliminary study, it indicates the five indexes are coordinated with each other and reasonable and effective to assess grid size suitability. We also suggest choosing these five indexes in three perspectives of expressed level to carry out the research on grid size suitability of gridded population distribution. PMID:28122050

Management and protection protocols for the threatened Piping Plover (Charadrius Melodus) on Cape Hatteras National Seashore, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohen, J.B.

2005-01-01

Executive Summary 1. The breeding population of the piping plover (Charadrius melodus), a federally-threatened shorebird, at Cape Hatteras National Seashore (CAHA) declined from 15 pairs/yr to 3 pairs/yr from 1989-2004. A population of this size may face immediate risk of extirpation from several sources. At several former breeding sites at CAHA, there have been no nesting pairs in recent years. 2. Only one plover chick has survived to fledging at CAHA, 2001-2004. While survival of eggs has often been moderate to high since 1989, survival of chicks has generally been low. Reproductive rate improved in 2005, with 6 chicks fledging from 2 pairs in conjunction with more actively managed closures in brood-rearing areas. 3. Inclement weather, predation, and recreational disturbance may negatively impact reproductive success of piping plovers at CAHA. Recreational disturbance and habitat loss caused by ORVs may discourage pairs from attempting to nest. 4. To recover the breeding plover population at CAHA, it will be necessary to create disturbance-free areas containing high-quality nesting and foraging habitat from the territory-establishment phase to the brood-rearing phase of the breeding cycle. We provide three management options to reduce risk of disturbance and mortality. They entail full closure of the seashore to recreation, closure of historical breeding sites to ORVs, or restriction of recreation to an oceanside corridor. 5. To reduce the risk of egg and chick mortality, we recommend continued efforts to trap and remove mammalian predators from all aforementioned sites and the continued use of predator exclosures around nests. We further recommend intensive monitoring and surveillance of protected areas to determine the extent and timing of threats to nests and broods, including nest overwash, predation, and disturbance or vandalism by humans. 6. Even if reproductive success improves under our recommendations, however, a population of this size will take several years to recover in the absence of immigrants from other sites, and there may not be a noticeable increase in population size in the short term. We recommend using an Adaptive Management approach, combining research, monitoring and management to assess the effectiveness of management actions in achieving our goals to recovery this threatened species at Cape Hatteras. 7. The size of nonbreeding flocks, their habitat use, their site tenacity, and sources of disturbance and mortality are not known with high precision. We recommend monitoring standards and research to address this problem, while at the same time restricting recreation adjacent to important migration and wintering sites to afford nonbreeding birds increased protection.

Role of grain-size in phyllonitisation: Insights from mineralogy, microstructures, strain analyses and numerical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bose, Narayan; Dutta, Dripta; Mukherjee, Soumyajit

2018-07-01

Brittle Y- and P-planes exist in an exposure of greywacke in the Garhwal Lesser Himalaya, India. Although, Y-planes are well developed throughout, the P-planes are prominent only in some parts (domain-A), and not elsewhere (domain-B). To investigate why the P-planes developed selectively, the following studies were undertaken: 1. Clay-separated XRD analyses: clinochlore and illite are present in both the domains. 2. Strain analyses by Rf-φ method: it deduces strain magnitudes of ∼1.8 for the ductile deformed quartz grains from both the domains A and B. 3. Grain size analyses of quartz clasts: domain-A is mostly composed of finer grains (area up to 40,000 μm2), whereas domain-B consists of a population of coarser grains (area >45,000 μm2). A 2D finite element modeling of linear elastic material was performed using COMSOL software to investigate the control of grain-size variation on the generation brittle shear planes. The results of numerical modeling corroborate the known fact that an increase in grain-size reduces the elastic strain energy density. A broader grain-size distribution increases the effects of diffusion creep and resists the onset of dislocation creep. Thus, rocks with coarser grain population (domain B) tend to resist the generation of shear fractures, unlike their fine-grained counterpart (domain A).

The demographic transition: an attempt to reformulate a population theory.

PubMed

Hofsten, E

1981-01-01

In this effort to reformulate the demographic transition theory, attention is directed to the following: Malthus and Karl Marx's criticism of his principle of population; the 1st stage of transition, i.e., high mortality, high fertility, and slow population growth; the 2nd stage of declining mortality; the 3rd stage of declining fertility; the 4th stage when mortality and fertility are both low; the growth potential; and the demographic transition in the 3rd world countries. The demographic transition theory has become popular among demographers, economists, historians, and others interested in studying the development of population over time since the end of World War 2. This interest has most likely been created by the anxiety over the population explosion in the 3rd world countries. Transition has made demographers believe that the period of rapid population growth will be automatically succeeded by a period of more or less constant population size. The question that arises is whether it is as simple as that. Demographic transition has to a great extent taken the place of Malthus' principle of population as a general theory of population. Demographic transition appears to describe in a satisfactory way the development of population which all currently industrialized countires have passed through, when going from the preindustrial to the present industrialized stage. The objectives to demographic transition as a general theory are considered. Some of the factors which have accounted for the decline in fertility in Europe may also apply to the 3rd world countries. 1 such factor is the effect of reduced infant and child mortality on the individual level. The fertility decline, caused by reduced infant and child mortality may, however, be of limited size. The great amount of unemployment in the 3rd world may affect fertility in a downward direction. The fertility decline in Europe occurred simultaneously with an industrialization process, which gradually covered the entire population. In most 3rd world countries the "modernization" that is going on implies that a small industrialized sector with its subsistence agriculture is left more or less untouched. There remains a strong incentive for many children in this kind of society. A rapid decline in fertility cannot be expected under these circumstances. To realize a thorough change in the social structure and in the social relations is necessary.

Drift in Neural Population Activity Causes Working Memory to Deteriorate Over Time.

PubMed

Schneegans, Sebastian; Bays, Paul M

2018-05-23

Short-term memories are thought to be maintained in the form of sustained spiking activity in neural populations. Decreases in recall precision observed with increasing number of memorized items can be accounted for by a limit on total spiking activity, resulting in fewer spikes contributing to the representation of each individual item. Longer retention intervals likewise reduce recall precision, but it is unknown what changes in population activity produce this effect. One possibility is that spiking activity becomes attenuated over time, such that the same mechanism accounts for both effects of set size and retention duration. Alternatively, reduced performance may be caused by drift in the encoded value over time, without a decrease in overall spiking activity. Human participants of either sex performed a variable-delay cued recall task with a saccadic response, providing a precise measure of recall latency. Based on a spike integration model of decision making, if the effects of set size and retention duration are both caused by decreased spiking activity, we would predict a fixed relationship between recall precision and response latency across conditions. In contrast, the drift hypothesis predicts no systematic changes in latency with increasing delays. Our results show both an increase in latency with set size, and a decrease in response precision with longer delays within each set size, but no systematic increase in latency for increasing delay durations. These results were quantitatively reproduced by a model based on a limited neural resource in which working memories drift rather than decay with time. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Rapid deterioration over seconds is a defining feature of short-term memory, but what mechanism drives this degradation of internal representations? Here, we extend a successful population coding model of working memory by introducing possible mechanisms of delay effects. We show that a decay in neural signal over time predicts that the time required for memory retrieval will increase with delay, whereas a random drift in the stored value predicts no effect of delay on retrieval time. Testing these predictions in a multi-item memory task with an eye movement response, we identified drift as a key mechanism of memory decline. These results provide evidence for a dynamic spiking basis for working memory, in contrast to recent proposals of activity-silent storage. Copyright © 2018 Schneegans and Bays.

Population growth enhances the mean fixation time of neutral mutations and the persistence of neutral variation.

PubMed

Waxman, D

2012-06-01

A fundamental result of population genetics states that a new mutation, at an unlinked neutral locus in a randomly mating diploid population, has a mean time of fixation of ∼4N(e) generations, where N(e) is the effective population size. This result is based on an assumption of fixed population size, which does not universally hold in natural populations. Here, we analyze such neutral fixations in populations of changing size within the framework of the diffusion approximation. General expressions are derived for the mean and variance of the fixation time in changing populations. Some explicit results are given for two cases: (i) the effective population size undergoes a sudden change, representing a sudden population expansion or a sudden bottleneck; (ii) the effective population changes linearly for a limited period of time and then remains constant. Additionally, a lower bound for the mean time of fixation is obtained for an effective population size that increases with time, and this is applied to exponentially growing populations. The results obtained in this work show, among other things, that for populations that increase in size, the mean time of fixation can be enhanced, sometimes substantially so, over 4N(e,0) generations, where N(e,0) is the effective population size at the time the mutation arises. Such an enhancement is associated with (i) an increased probability of neutral polymorphism in a population and (ii) an enhanced persistence of high-frequency neutral variation, which is the variation most likely to be observed.

Adaptive significance of small body size: strength and motor performance of school children in Mexico and Papua New Guinea.

PubMed

Malina, R M; Little, B B; Shoup, R F; Buschang, P H

1987-08-01

The postulated superior functional efficiency in association with reduced body size under conditions of chronic protein-energy undernutrition was considered in school children from rural Mexico and coastal Papua New Guinea. Grip strength and three measures of motor performance were measured in cross-sectional samples of children 6-16 years of age from a rural agricultural community in Oaxaca, Mexico, and from the coastal community Pere on Manus Island, Papua New Guinea. The strength and performance of a mixed-longitudinal sample of well nourished children from Philadelphia was used as a reference. The Oaxaca and Pere children are significantly shorter and lighter and are not as strong as the well nourished children. Motor performances of Pere children compare favorably to those of the better-nourished Philadelphia children, whereas those of the Oaxaca children are poorer. Throwing performance is more variable. When expressed relative to body size, strength is similar in the three samples, but the running and jumping performances of Pere children per unit body size are better than the relative performances of Oaxaca and Philadelphia children. Throwing performance per unit body size is better in the undernourished children. The influence of age, stature, and weight on the performance of Oaxaca and Pere children is generally similar to that for well nourished children. These results suggest that the hypothesized adaptive significance of small body size for the functional efficiency of populations living under conditions of chronic undernutrition varies between populations and with performance tasks.

Estimation of population size using open capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDonald, T.L.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2001-01-01

One of the most important needs for wildlife managers is an accurate estimate of population size. Yet, for many species, including most marine species and large mammals, accurate and precise estimation of numbers is one of the most difficult of all research challenges. Open-population capture-recapture models have proven useful in many situations to estimate survival probabilities but typically have not been used to estimate population size. We show that open-population models can be used to estimate population size by developing a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimate of population size and an estimator of its variance. Our population size estimate keys on the probability of capture at each trap occasion and therefore is quite general and can be made a function of external covariates measured during the study. Here we define the estimator and investigate its bias, variance, and variance estimator via computer simulation. Computer simulations make extensive use of real data taken from a study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea. The population size estimator is shown to be useful because it was negligibly biased in all situations studied. The variance estimator is shown to be useful in all situations, but caution is warranted in cases of extreme capture heterogeneity.

Can males contribute to the genetic improvement of a species?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardes, Américo T.

1997-01-01

In the time evolution of finite populations, the accumulation of harmful mutations in further generations might have lead to a temporal decay in the mean fitness of the whole population. This, in turn, would reduce the population size and so lead to its extinction. The production of genetically diverse offspring, through recombination, is a powerful mechanism in order to avoid this catastrophic route. From a selfish point of view, meiotic parthenogenesis can ensure the maintenance of better genomes, while sexual reproduction presents the risk of genome dilution. In this paper, by using Monte Carlo simulations of age-structured populations, through the Penna model, I compare the evolution of populations with different repoductive regimes. It is shown that sexual reproduction with male competition can produce better results than meiotic parthenogenesis. This contradicts results recently published, but agrees with the strong evidence that nature chose sexual reproduction instead of partenogenesis for most of the higher species.

Neutral evolution of mutational robustness

PubMed Central

van Nimwegen, Erik; Crutchfield, James P.; Huynen, Martijn

1999-01-01

We introduce and analyze a general model of a population evolving over a network of selectively neutral genotypes. We show that the population’s limit distribution on the neutral network is solely determined by the network topology and given by the principal eigenvector of the network’s adjacency matrix. Moreover, the average number of neutral mutant neighbors per individual is given by the matrix spectral radius. These results quantify the extent to which populations evolve mutational robustness—the insensitivity of the phenotype to mutations—and thus reduce genetic load. Because the average neutrality is independent of evolutionary parameters—such as mutation rate, population size, and selective advantage—one can infer global statistics of neutral network topology by using simple population data available from in vitro or in vivo evolution. Populations evolving on neutral networks of RNA secondary structures show excellent agreement with our theoretical predictions. PMID:10449760

Discovery of SNPs for individual identification by reduced representation sequencing of moose (Alces alces).

PubMed

Blåhed, Ida-Maria; Königsson, Helena; Ericsson, Göran; Spong, Göran

2018-01-01

Monitoring of wild animal populations is challenging, yet reliable information about population processes is important for both management and conservation efforts. Access to molecular markers, such as SNPs, enables population monitoring through genotyping of various DNA sources. We have developed 96 high quality SNP markers for individual identification of moose (Alces alces), an economically and ecologically important top-herbivore in boreal regions. Reduced representation libraries constructed from 34 moose were high-throughput de novo sequenced, generating nearly 50 million read pairs. About 50 000 stacks of aligned reads containing one or more SNPs were discovered with the Stacks pipeline. Several quality criteria were applied on the candidate SNPs to find markers informative on the individual level and well representative for the population. An empirical validation by genotyping of sequenced individuals and additional moose, resulted in the selection of a final panel of 86 high quality autosomal SNPs. Additionally, five sex-specific SNPs and five SNPs for sympatric species diagnostics are included in the panel. The genotyping error rate was 0.002 for the total panel and probability of identities were low enough to separate individuals with high confidence. Moreover, the autosomal SNPs were highly informative also for population level analyses. The potential applications of this SNP panel are thus many including investigations of population size, sex ratios, relatedness, reproductive success and population structure. Ideally, SNP-based studies could improve today's population monitoring and increase our knowledge about moose population dynamics.

A tale of two polar bear populations: Ice habitat, harvest, and body condition

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rode, Karyn D.; Peacock, Elizabeth; Taylor, Mitchell K.; Stirling, Ian; Born, Erik W.; Laidre, Kristin L.; Wiig, Øystein

2012-01-01

One of the primary mechanisms by which sea ice loss is expected to affect polar bears is via reduced body condition and growth resulting from reduced access to prey. To date, negative effects of sea ice loss have been documented for two of 19 recognized populations. Effects of sea ice loss on other polar bear populations that differ in harvest rate, population density, and/or feeding ecology have been assumed, but empirical support, especially quantitative data on population size, demography, and/or body condition spanning two or more decades, have been lacking. We examined trends in body condition metrics of captured bears and relationships with summertime ice concentration between 1977 and 2010 for the Baffin Bay (BB) and Davis Strait (DS) polar bear populations. Polar bears in these regions occupy areas with annual sea ice that has decreased markedly starting in the 1990s. Despite differences in harvest rate, population density, sea ice concentration, and prey base, polar bears in both populations exhibited positive relationships between body condition and summertime sea ice cover during the recent period of sea ice decline. Furthermore, females and cubs exhibited relationships with sea ice that were not apparent during the earlier period (1977–1990s) when sea ice loss did not occur. We suggest that declining body condition in BB may be a result of recent declines in sea ice habitat. In DS, high population density and/or sea ice loss, may be responsible for the declines in body condition.

Quantitative estimation of the cost of parasitic castration in a Helisoma anceps population using a matrix population model.

PubMed

Negovetich, N J; Esch, G W

2008-10-01

Larval trematodes frequently castrate their snail intermediate hosts. When castrated, the snails do not contribute offspring to the population, yet they persist and compete with the uninfected individuals for the available food resources. Parasitic castration should reduce the population growth rate lambda, but the magnitude of this decrease is unknown. The present study attempted to quantify the cost of parasitic castration at the level of the population by mathematically modeling the population of the planorbid snail Helisoma anceps in Charlie's Pond, North Carolina. Analysis of the model identified the life-history trait that most affects lambda, and the degree to which parasitic castration can lower lambda. A period matrix product model was constructed with estimates of fecundity, survival, growth rates, and infection probabilities calculated in a previous study. Elasticity analysis was performed by increasing the values of the life-history traits by 10% and recording the percentage change in lambda. Parasitic castration resulted in a 40% decrease in lambda of H. anceps. Analysis of the model suggests that decreasing the size at maturity was more effective at reducing the cost of castration than increasing survival or growth rates of the snails. The current matrix model was the first to mathematically describe a snail population, and the predictions of the model are in agreement with published research.

Implementation of the first adaptive management plan for a European migratory waterbird population: The case of the Svalbard pink-footed goose Anser brachyrhynchus

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madsen, Jesper; Williams, James Henty; Johnson, Fred A.; Tombre, Ingunn M.; Dereliev, Sergey; Kuijken, Eckhart

2017-01-01

An International Species Management Plan for the Svalbard population of the pink-footed goose was adopted under the Agreement on the Conservation of African-Eurasian Migratory Waterbirds in 2012, the first case of adaptive management of a migratory waterbird population in Europe. An international working group (including statutory agencies, NGO representatives and experts) agreed on objectives and actions to maintain the population in favourable conservation status, while accounting for biodiversity, economic and recreational interests. Agreements include setting a population target to reduce agricultural conflicts and avoid tundra degradation, and using hunting in some range states to maintain stable population size. As part of the adaptive management procedures, adjustment to harvest is made annually subject to population status. This has required streamlining of monitoring and assessment activities. Three years after implementation, indicators suggest the attainment of management results. Dialogue, consensus-building and engagement among stakeholders represent the major process achievements.

Repeated Habitat Disturbances by Fire Decrease Local Effective Population Size

PubMed Central

Ragsdale, Alexandria K.; McCoy, Earl D.; Mushinsky, Henry R.

2016-01-01

Effective population size is a fundamental parameter in population genetics, and factors that alter effective population size will shape the genetic characteristics of populations. Habitat disturbance may have a large effect on genetic characteristics of populations by influencing immigration and gene flow, particularly in fragmented habitats. We used the Florida Sand Skink (Plestiodon reynoldsi) to investigate the effect of fire-based habitat disturbances on the effective population size in the highly threatened, severely fragmented, and fire dependent Florida scrub habitat. We screened 7 microsatellite loci in 604 individuals collected from 12 locations at Archbold Biological Station. Archbold Biological Station has an active fire management plan and detailed records of fires dating to 1967. Our objective was to determine how the timing, number, and intervals between fires affect effective population size, focusing on multiple fires in the same location. Effective population size was higher in areas that had not been burned for more than 10 years and decreased with number of fires and shorter time between fires. A similar pattern was observed in abundance: increasing abundance with time-since-fire and decreasing abundance with number of fires. The ratio of effective population size to census size was higher at sites with more recent fires and tended to decrease with time-since-last-fire. These results suggest that habitat disturbances, such as fire, may have a large effect in the genetic characteristics of local populations and that Florida Sand Skinks are well adapted to the natural fire dynamics required to maintain Florida scrub. PMID:26976940

Genetic dissection and validation of candidate genes for flag leaf size in rice (Oryza sativa L.).

PubMed

Tang, Xinxin; Gong, Rong; Sun, Wenqiang; Zhang, Chaopu; Yu, Sibin

2018-04-01

Two major loci with functional candidate genes were identified and validated affecting flag leaf size, which offer desirable genes to improve leaf architecture and photosynthetic capacity in rice. Leaf size is a major determinant of plant architecture and yield potential in crops. However, the genetic and molecular mechanisms regulating leaf size remain largely elusive. In this study, quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for flag leaf length and flag leaf width in rice were detected with high-density single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping of a chromosomal segment substitution line (CSSL) population, in which each line carries one or a few chromosomal segments from the japonica cultivar Nipponbare in a common background of the indica variety Zhenshan 97. In total, 14 QTLs for flag leaf length and nine QTLs for flag leaf width were identified in the CSSL population. Among them, qFW4-2 for flag leaf width was mapped to a 37-kb interval, with the most likely candidate gene being the previously characterized NAL1. Another major QTL for both flag leaf width and length was delimited by substitution mapping to a small region of 13.5 kb that contains a single gene, Ghd7.1. Mutants of Ghd7.1 generated using CRISPR/CAS9 approach showed reduced leaf size. Allelic variation analyses also validated Ghd7.1 as a functional candidate gene for leaf size, photosynthetic capacity and other yield-related traits. These results provide useful genetic information for the improvement of leaf size and yield in rice breeding programs.

Bomb or Boon: Linking Population, People and Power in Fragile Regions: Comment on "The Pill Is Mightier Than the Sword".

PubMed

Gilpin, Raymond

2015-10-02

The relationship between population structure and violent conflict is complex and heavily dependent on the behavior of other variables like governance, economic prospects, and urbanization. While addressing rapid population growth might be a necessary condition for peace, it is by no means sufficient. Concomitant steps must also be taken to foster inclusivity, guarantee broader rights for all, particularly women, rebuild social contracts and ensure that all citizens have equal access to economic opportunity. Measures to control family size could reduce dependency and create greater socio-economic opportunities for women and youth, By so doing, the "youth bulge" phenomenon could be a boon for rapidly growing developing countries. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

Using multiple data types and integrated population models to improve our knowledge of apex predator population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bled, Florent; Belant, Jerrold L.; Van Daele, Lawrence J.; Svoboda, Nathan; Gustine, David D.; Hilderbrand, Grant V.; Barnes, Victor G.

2017-01-01

Current management of large carnivores is informed using a variety of parameters, methods, and metrics; however, these data are typically considered independently. Sharing information among data types based on the underlying ecological, and recognizing observation biases, can improve estimation of individual and global parameters. We present a general integrated population model (IPM), specifically designed for brown bears (Ursus arctos), using three common data types for bear (U. spp.) populations: repeated counts, capture–mark–recapture, and litter size. We considered factors affecting ecological and observation processes for these data. We assessed the practicality of this approach on a simulated population and compared estimates from our model to values used for simulation and results from count data only. We then present a practical application of this general approach adapted to the constraints of a case study using historical data available for brown bears on Kodiak Island, Alaska, USA. The IPM provided more accurate and precise estimates than models accounting for repeated count data only, with credible intervals including the true population 94% and 5% of the time, respectively. For the Kodiak population, we estimated annual average litter size (within one year after birth) to vary between 0.45 [95% credible interval: 0.43; 0.55] and 1.59 [1.55; 1.82]. We detected a positive relationship between salmon availability and adult survival, with survival probabilities greater for females than males. Survival probabilities increased from cubs to yearlings to dependent young ≥2 years old and decreased with litter size. Linking multiple information sources based on ecological and observation mechanisms can provide more accurate and precise estimates, to better inform management. IPMs can also reduce data collection efforts by sharing information among agencies and management units. Our approach responds to an increasing need in bear populations’ management and can be readily adapted to other large carnivores.

mtDNA variation predicts population size in humans and reveals a major Southern Asian chapter in human prehistory.

PubMed

Atkinson, Quentin D; Gray, Russell D; Drummond, Alexei J

2008-02-01

The relative timing and size of regional human population growth following our expansion from Africa remain unknown. Human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) diversity carries a legacy of our population history. Given a set of sequences, we can use coalescent theory to estimate past population size through time and draw inferences about human population history. However, recent work has challenged the validity of using mtDNA diversity to infer species population sizes. Here we use Bayesian coalescent inference methods, together with a global data set of 357 human mtDNA coding-region sequences, to infer human population sizes through time across 8 major geographic regions. Our estimates of relative population sizes show remarkable concordance with the contemporary regional distribution of humans across Africa, Eurasia, and the Americas, indicating that mtDNA diversity is a good predictor of population size in humans. Plots of population size through time show slow growth in sub-Saharan Africa beginning 143-193 kya, followed by a rapid expansion into Eurasia after the emergence of the first non-African mtDNA lineages 50-70 kya. Outside Africa, the earliest and fastest growth is inferred in Southern Asia approximately 52 kya, followed by a succession of growth phases in Northern and Central Asia (approximately 49 kya), Australia (approximately 48 kya), Europe (approximately 42 kya), the Middle East and North Africa (approximately 40 kya), New Guinea (approximately 39 kya), the Americas (approximately 18 kya), and a second expansion in Europe (approximately 10-15 kya). Comparisons of relative regional population sizes through time suggest that between approximately 45 and 20 kya most of humanity lived in Southern Asia. These findings not only support the use of mtDNA data for estimating human population size but also provide a unique picture of human prehistory and demonstrate the importance of Southern Asia to our recent evolutionary past.

Economic development and family size.

PubMed

Rios, R J

1991-01-01

The demographic transition in Latin America has resulted in increased family size rather than the Western European model of reduced family size. In 1905, both fertility and mortality were high in Latin America, but mortality declined more rapidly in Latin America than in Europe. In 1905, the crude birth rate for 15 selected countries averaged 44/1000 population. Western fertility at a comparable transition point was much lower at 30/1000. Between 1905 and 1960, fertility declines were evident in Uruguay, Argentina, Cuba, and Chile. Between 1960 and 1985, fertility declines appeared in Costa Rica, Panama, Brazil, and Colombia. Fertility declines were smaller in the other Latin American countries. Crude birth rates declined markedly by 1985 but may overestimate fertility decline, which is more accurately measured by standardized birth rates. Fertility decline was evident in Argentina, Chile, and Costa Rica for standardized birth rates, survivorship ratio, and births surviving past the age of 15 years. Theoretically, families are expected to reduce family size when survivorship is assured; when mortality is 25%, only four children need be planned instead of six when mortality is 50%. A result of falling mortality is a cheaper cost of producing children, which may stimulate parents to raise bigger families. Western fertility decline has been attributed to mortality decline, urbanization, increased female labor force participation, rising wages, and more efficient contraception. Comparable economic development in Latin America has not resulted in large enough changes to encourage family size limitation. A table of fertility and economic indicators for selected countries in Latin America and Europe reflects the inverse relationship between income growth, urban growth, and growth in female educational status and fertility. The regression equation explains 60% of the variation in fertility rates among Latin American countries. Explanatory power increases to 75% when female high school enrollment is added to per capita gross national product. Fertility declines in Latin America in the future will be dependent on economic development, educational advancement for women, and a reduction in rural population.

Interventions to promote healthy eating choices when dining out: A systematic review of reviews.

PubMed

Wright, Breanna; Bragge, Peter

2018-05-01

To synthesize review research pertaining to the effectiveness of interventions in dining-out settings to reduce food/calorie consumption. A rapid review methodology was employed to focus on synthesized research. A comprehensive search for peer-reviewed systematic reviews from 2010 to 2015 yielded 1,847 citations. Following screening, ten systematic reviews were included. The 10 included systematic reviews identified 183 primary studies evaluating evidence in three behavioural intervention areas: social models/norms, manipulation of size, and provision of health information. Three systematic reviews evaluating the use of social models/norms found this was an effective intervention for influencing food intake. Five systematic reviews that assessed manipulation of portion/dishware/cutlery size found a small-to-moderate effect on food consumption. Three systematic reviews looked at the provision of health information, which was not effective alone; however, in combination with contextual or interpretive material such as traffic lights or exercise equivalence, this was shown to reduce calorie consumption. One systematic review covered two topic areas. The results indicate that policies or interventions that aim to improve healthy choices or consumption when dining out would benefit from harnessing social norms and positive positioning of social identity. Furthermore, provision of health information should always be accompanied by an interpretative guide, such as traffic lights. Manipulation of plate/portion/cutlery size may be effective; however, the effect size is small and further research is required to investigate whether this effect is retained in overweight or obese populations. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? Eating behaviours (food choices, consumption) have played a role in the obesity epidemic. Behavioural 'nudges' have tried to increase healthier eating choices. What does this study add? Social norms and modelling have a strong influence in both directions on how much people consume. Provision of nutritional information needs to be paired with interpretative aids (e.g., traffic lights). Manipulation of portion size is less effective in overweight populations. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Influence of Population Density on Offspring Number and Size in Burying Beetles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rauter, Claudia M.

2010-01-01

This laboratory exercise investigates the influence of population density on offspring number and size in burying beetles. Students test the theoretical predictions that brood size declines and offspring size increases when competition over resources becomes stronger with increasing population density. Students design the experiment, collect and…

The efficacy of respondent-driven sampling for the health assessment of minority populations.

PubMed

Badowski, Grazyna; Somera, Lilnabeth P; Simsiman, Brayan; Lee, Hye-Ryeon; Cassel, Kevin; Yamanaka, Alisha; Ren, JunHao

2017-10-01

Respondent driven sampling (RDS) is a relatively new network sampling technique typically employed for hard-to-reach populations. Like snowball sampling, initial respondents or "seeds" recruit additional respondents from their network of friends. Under certain assumptions, the method promises to produce a sample independent from the biases that may have been introduced by the non-random choice of "seeds." We conducted a survey on health communication in Guam's general population using the RDS method, the first survey that has utilized this methodology in Guam. It was conducted in hopes of identifying a cost-efficient non-probability sampling strategy that could generate reasonable population estimates for both minority and general populations. RDS data was collected in Guam in 2013 (n=511) and population estimates were compared with 2012 BRFSS data (n=2031) and the 2010 census data. The estimates were calculated using the unweighted RDS sample and the weighted sample using RDS inference methods and compared with known population characteristics. The sample size was reached in 23days, providing evidence that the RDS method is a viable, cost-effective data collection method, which can provide reasonable population estimates. However, the results also suggest that the RDS inference methods used to reduce bias, based on self-reported estimates of network sizes, may not always work. Caution is needed when interpreting RDS study findings. For a more diverse sample, data collection should not be conducted in just one location. Fewer questions about network estimates should be asked, and more careful consideration should be given to the kind of incentives offered to participants. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

How does competition among wild type mosquitoes influence the performance of Aedes aegypti and dissemination of Wolbachia pipientis?

PubMed Central

de Oliveira, Suellen; Villela, Daniel Antunes Maciel; Dias, Fernando Braga Stehling; Moreira, Luciano Andrade

2017-01-01

Background Wolbachia has been deployed in several countries to reduce transmission of dengue, Zika and chikungunya viruses. During releases, Wolbachia-infected females are likely to lay their eggs in local available breeding sites, which might already be colonized by local Aedes sp. mosquitoes. Therefore, there is an urgent need to estimate the deleterious effects of intra and interspecific larval competition on mosquito life history traits, especially on the duration of larval development time, larval mortality and adult size. Methodology/principal findings Three different mosquito populations were used: Ae. aegypti infected with Wolbachia (wMelBr strain), wild Ae. aegypti and wild Ae. albopictus. A total of 21 treatments explored intra and interspecific larval competition with varying larval densities, species proportions and food levels. Each treatment had eight replicates with two distinct food levels: 0.25 or 0.50 g of Chitosan and fallen avocado leaves. Overall, overcrowding reduced fitness correlates of the three populations. Ae. albopictus larvae presented lower larval mortality, shorter development time to adult and smaller wing sizes than Ae. aegypti. The presence of Wolbachia had a slight positive effect on larval biology, since infected individuals had higher survivorship than uninfected Ae. aegypti larvae. Conclusions/significance In all treatments, Ae. albopictus outperformed both wild Ae. aegypti and the Wolbachia-infected group in larval competition, irrespective of larval density and the amount of food resources. The major force that can slow down Wolbachia invasion is the population density of wild mosquitoes. Given that Ae. aegypti currently dominates in Rio, in comparison with Ae. albopictus frequency, additional attention must be given to the population density of Ae. aegypti during releases to increase the likelihood of Wolbachia invasion. PMID:28991902

Genomic distribution and estimation of nucleotide diversity in natural populations: perspectives from the collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis) genome.

PubMed

Dutoit, Ludovic; Burri, Reto; Nater, Alexander; Mugal, Carina F; Ellegren, Hans

2017-07-01

Properly estimating genetic diversity in populations of nonmodel species requires a basic understanding of how diversity is distributed across the genome and among individuals. To this end, we analysed whole-genome resequencing data from 20 collared flycatchers (genome size ≈1.1 Gb; 10.13 million single nucleotide polymorphisms detected). Genomewide nucleotide diversity was almost identical among individuals (mean = 0.00394, range = 0.00384-0.00401), but diversity levels varied extensively across the genome (95% confidence interval for 200-kb windows = 0.0013-0.0053). Diversity was related to selective constraint such that in comparison with intergenic DNA, diversity at fourfold degenerate sites was reduced to 85%, 3' UTRs to 82%, 5' UTRs to 70% and nondegenerate sites to 12%. There was a strong positive correlation between diversity and chromosome size, probably driven by a higher density of targets for selection on smaller chromosomes increasing the diversity-reducing effect of linked selection. Simulations exploring the ability of sequence data from a small number of genetic markers to capture the observed diversity clearly demonstrated that diversity estimation from finite sampling of such data is bound to be associated with large confidence intervals. Nevertheless, we show that precision in diversity estimation in large outbred population benefits from increasing the number of loci rather than the number of individuals. Simulations mimicking RAD sequencing showed that this approach gives accurate estimates of genomewide diversity. Based on the patterns of observed diversity and the performed simulations, we provide broad recommendations for how genetic diversity should be estimated in natural populations. © 2016 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Resources Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Acidification reduced growth rate but not swimming speed of larval sea urchins.

PubMed

Chan, Kit Yu Karen; García, Eliseba; Dupont, Sam

2015-05-15

Swimming behaviors of planktonic larvae impact dispersal and population dynamics of many benthic marine invertebrates. This key ecological function is modulated by larval development dynamics, biomechanics of the resulting morphology, and behavioral choices. Studies on ocean acidification effects on larval stages have yet to address this important interaction between development and swimming under environmentally-relevant flow conditions. Our video motion analysis revealed that pH covering present and future natural variability (pH 8.0, 7.6 and 7.2) did not affect age-specific swimming of larval green urchin Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis in still water nor in shear, despite acidified individuals being significantly smaller in size (reduced growth rate). This maintenance of speed and stability in shear was accompanied by an overall change in size-corrected shape, implying changes in swimming biomechanics. Our observations highlight strong evolutionary pressure to maintain swimming in a varying environment and the plasticity in larval responses to environmental change.

Evaluating the potential for stock size to limit recruitment in largemouth bass

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Michael S.; Rogers, Mark W.; Catalano, Mathew J.; Gwinn, Daniel G.; Walsh, Stephen J.

2011-01-01

Compensatory changes in juvenile survival allow fish stocks to maintain relatively constant recruitment across a wide range of stock sizes (and levels of fishing), but few studies have experimentally explored recruitment compensation in fish populations. We evaluated the potential for recruitment compensation in largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides by stocking six 0.4-ha hatchery ponds with adult densities ranging from 6 to 40 fish over 2 years. Ponds were drained in October each year, and the age-0 fish densities were used as a measure of recruitment. We found no relationship between stock abundance and recruitment; ponds with low adult densities produced nearly as many recruits as the higher-density ponds in some cases. Both prey abundance and the growth of age-0 largemouth bass declined with age-0 fish density. Recruit abundance was highly variable both within and among the adult density groups, and thus we were unable to identify a clear stock–recruit relationship for largemouth bass. Our results indicate that reducing the number of effective spawners via angling practices would not reduce recruitment over a relatively large range in stock size.

Do fertility intentions predict subsequent behavior? Evidence from Peninsular Malaysia.

PubMed

Tan, P C; Tey, N P

1994-01-01

Data from the 1984 Malaysian Population and Family Survey were matched with birth registration records for 1985-87 to determine the accuracy of statements regarding desired family size that were reported in a household survey in predicting subsequent reproductive behavior. The findings of this study were that stated fertility intention provides fairly accurate forecasts of fertility behavior in the subsequent period. In other words, whether a woman has another child is predicted closely by whether she wanted an additional child. Informational, educational, and motivational activities of family planning programs would, therefore, have greater success in reducing family size if fertility intentions were taken into account.

Big-brained birds survive better in nature

PubMed Central

Sol, Daniel; Székely, Tamás; Liker, András; Lefebvre, Louis

2007-01-01

Big brains are hypothesized to enhance survival of animals by facilitating flexible cognitive responses that buffer individuals against environmental stresses. Although this theory receives partial support from the finding that brain size limits the capacity of animals to behaviourally respond to environmental challenges, the hypothesis that large brains are associated with reduced mortality has never been empirically tested. Using extensive information on avian adult mortality from natural populations, we show here that species with larger brains, relative to their body size, experience lower mortality than species with smaller brains, supporting the general importance of the cognitive buffer hypothesis in the evolution of large brains. PMID:17251112

Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk.

PubMed

Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

2016-01-01

The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation.

Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk

PubMed Central

Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

2016-01-01

The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation. PMID:26986004

The evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting extends from genes to populations

PubMed Central

Uusi-Heikkilä, Silva; Whiteley, Andrew R; Kuparinen, Anna; Matsumura, Shuichi; Venturelli, Paul A; Wolter, Christian; Slate, Jon; Primmer, Craig R; Meinelt, Thomas; Killen, Shaun S; Bierbach, David; Polverino, Giovanni; Ludwig, Arne; Arlinghaus, Robert

2015-01-01

Size-selective harvesting is assumed to alter life histories of exploited fish populations, thereby negatively affecting population productivity, recovery, and yield. However, demonstrating that fisheries-induced phenotypic changes in the wild are at least partly genetically determined has proved notoriously difficult. Moreover, the population-level consequences of fisheries-induced evolution are still being controversially discussed. Using an experimental approach, we found that five generations of size-selective harvesting altered the life histories and behavior, but not the metabolic rate, of wild-origin zebrafish (Danio rerio). Fish adapted to high positively size selective fishing pressure invested more in reproduction, reached a smaller adult body size, and were less explorative and bold. Phenotypic changes seemed subtle but were accompanied by genetic changes in functional loci. Thus, our results provided unambiguous evidence for rapid, harvest-induced phenotypic and evolutionary change when harvesting is intensive and size selective. According to a life-history model, the observed life-history changes elevated population growth rate in harvested conditions, but slowed population recovery under a simulated moratorium. Hence, the evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting includes populations that are productive under exploited conditions, but selectively disadvantaged to cope with natural selection pressures that often favor large body size. PMID:26136825

Improving diet and physical activity to reduce population prevalence of overweight and obesity: an overview of current evidence.

PubMed

Stephens, Samantha K; Cobiac, Linda J; Veerman, J Lennert

2014-05-01

The aim of this study is to provide an overview of interventions to reduce or prevent overweight or obesity and improve diet or physical activity. A review of meta-analyses and/or systematic reviews of these interventions in any setting or age group were conducted. Narrative systematic reviews were included for intervention categories with limited meta-analyses available. Summary measures including weighted mean difference, standardised mean difference, and I-squared, were examined. A total of 60 meta-analyses and 23 systematic reviews met the inclusion criteria. Dietary interventions and multi-component interventions targeting overweight and obesity appeared to have the greatest effects, particularly in comparison with workplace or technology or internet-based interventions. Pharmaceutical and surgical interventions produced favourable results for specific population sub-groups (i.e. morbidly obese). Population-wide strategies such as policy interventions have not been widely analysed. The effectiveness of the interventions to assist in maintaining behaviour or weight change remains unclear. Various individually targeted interventions were shown to reduce body weight, although effect sizes were typically modest, and the durability of effects has been questioned. New approaches to evaluating population-based interventions, such as taxes and regulation, are recommended. Future research modelling the long-term effects of interventions across the lifespan would also be beneficial. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial variation in egg size of a top predator: Interplay of body size and environmental factors?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Louzao, Maite; Igual, José M.; Genovart, Meritxell; Forero, Manuela G.; Hobson, Keith A.; Oro, Daniel

2008-09-01

It is expected that nearby populations are constrained by the same ecological features shaping in turn similarity in their ecological traits. Here, we studied the spatio-temporal variability in egg size among local populations of the critically endangered Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus, a top marine predator endemic to the western Mediterranean region. Specifically we assessed whether this trait was influenced by maternal body size, as an indicator of a genetic component, and feeding ecology (through stable-carbon and nitrogen-isotope measurements), as an indicator of environmental factors. We found that egg size varied among local populations, an unexpected result at such a small spatial scale. Body size differences at the local population level only partially explained such differences. Blood isotope measurements also differed among local populations. Values of δ 15N suggested inter-population differences in trophic level, showing a similar general pattern with egg size, and suggesting a nutritional link between them whereby egg size was affected by differences in feeding resources and/or behaviour. Values of δ 13C suggested that local populations did not differ in foraging habits with respect to benthic- vs. pelagic-based food-webs. Egg size did not vary among years as did breeding performance, suggesting that a differential temporal window could affect both breeding parameters in relation to food availability. The absence of a relationship between breeding performance and egg size suggested that larger eggs might only confer an advantage during harsh conditions. Alternatively parental quality could greatly affect breeding performance. We showed that inter-population differences in egg size could be influenced by both body size and environmental factors.

Internal migration and urbanization in China: impacts on population exposure to household air pollution (2000-2010).

PubMed

Aunan, Kristin; Wang, Shuxiao

2014-05-15

Exposure to fine particles ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) from incomplete combustion of solid fuels in household stoves, denoted household air pollution (HAP), is a major contributor to ill health in China and globally. Chinese households are, however, undergoing a massive transition to cleaner household fuels. The objective of the present study is to establish the importance of internal migration when it comes to the changing household fuel use pattern and the associated exposure to PM2.5 for the period 2000 to 2010. We also estimate health benefits of the fuel transition in terms of avoided premature deaths. Using China Census data on population, migration, and household fuel use for 2000 and 2010 we identify the size, place of residence, and main cooking fuel of sub-populations in 2000 and 2010, respectively. We combine these data with estimated exposure levels for the sub-populations and estimate changes in population exposure over the decade. We find that the population weighted exposure (PWE) for the Chinese population as a whole was reduced by 52 (36-70) μg/m(3) PM2.5 over the decade, and that about 60% of the reduction can be linked to internal migration. During the same period the migrant population, in total 261 million people, was subject to a reduced population weighted exposure (ΔPWE) of 123 (87-165) μg/m(3) PM2.5. The corresponding figure for non-migrants is 34 (23-47) μg/m(3). The largest ΔPWE was estimated for rural-to-urban migrants (138 million people), 214 (154-283) μg/m(3). The estimated annual health benefit associated with the reduced exposure in the total population is 31 (26-37) billion USD, corresponding to 0.4% of the Chinese GDP. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Large but uneven reduction in fish size across species in relation to changing sea temperatures.

PubMed

van Rijn, Itai; Buba, Yehezkel; DeLong, John; Kiflawi, Moshe; Belmaker, Jonathan

2017-09-01

Ectotherms often attain smaller body sizes when they develop at higher temperatures. This phenomenon, known as the temperature-size rule, has important consequences for global fisheries, whereby ocean warming is predicted to result in smaller fish and reduced biomass. However, the generality of this phenomenon and the mechanisms that drive it in natural populations remain unresolved. In this study, we document the maximal size of 74 fish species along a steep temperature gradient in the Mediterranean Sea and find strong support for the temperature-size rule. Importantly, we additionally find that size reduction in active fish species is dramatically larger than for more sedentary species. As the temperature dependence of oxygen consumption depends on activity levels, these findings are consistent with the hypothesis that oxygen is a limiting factor shaping the temperature-size rule in fishes. These results suggest that ocean warming will result in a sharp, but uneven, reduction in fish size that will cause major shifts in size-dependent interactions. Moreover, warming will have major implications for fisheries as the main species targeted for harvesting will show the most substantial declines in biomass. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Repeated Habitat Disturbances by Fire Decrease Local Effective Population Size.

PubMed

Schrey, Aaron W; Ragsdale, Alexandria K; McCoy, Earl D; Mushinsky, Henry R

2016-07-01

Effective population size is a fundamental parameter in population genetics, and factors that alter effective population size will shape the genetic characteristics of populations. Habitat disturbance may have a large effect on genetic characteristics of populations by influencing immigration and gene flow, particularly in fragmented habitats. We used the Florida Sand Skink (Plestiodon reynoldsi) to investigate the effect of fire-based habitat disturbances on the effective population size in the highly threatened, severely fragmented, and fire dependent Florida scrub habitat. We screened 7 microsatellite loci in 604 individuals collected from 12 locations at Archbold Biological Station. Archbold Biological Station has an active fire management plan and detailed records of fires dating to 1967. Our objective was to determine how the timing, number, and intervals between fires affect effective population size, focusing on multiple fires in the same location. Effective population size was higher in areas that had not been burned for more than 10 years and decreased with number of fires and shorter time between fires. A similar pattern was observed in abundance: increasing abundance with time-since-fire and decreasing abundance with number of fires. The ratio of effective population size to census size was higher at sites with more recent fires and tended to decrease with time-since-last-fire. These results suggest that habitat disturbances, such as fire, may have a large effect in the genetic characteristics of local populations and that Florida Sand Skinks are well adapted to the natural fire dynamics required to maintain Florida scrub. © The American Genetic Association. 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Modulation of population density and size of silver nanoparticles embedded in bacterial cellulose via ammonia exposure: visual detection of volatile compounds in a piece of plasmonic nanopaper

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heli, B.; Morales-Narváez, E.; Golmohammadi, H.; Ajji, A.; Merkoçi, A.

2016-04-01

The localized surface plasmon resonance exhibited by noble metal nanoparticles can be sensitively tuned by varying their size and interparticle distances. We report that corrosive vapour (ammonia) exposure dramatically reduces the population density of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) embedded within bacterial cellulose, leading to a larger distance between the remaining nanoparticles and a decrease in the UV-Vis absorbance associated with the AgNP plasmonic properties. We also found that the size distribution of AgNPs embedded in bacterial cellulose undergoes a reduction in the presence of volatile compounds released during food spoilage, modulating the studied nanoplasmonic properties. In fact, such a plasmonic nanopaper exhibits a change in colour from amber to light amber upon the explored corrosive vapour exposure and from amber to a grey or taupe colour upon fish or meat spoilage exposure. These phenomena are proposed as a simple visual detection of volatile compounds in a flexible, transparent, permeable and stable single-use nanoplasmonic membrane, which opens the way to innovative approaches and capabilities in gas sensing and smart packaging.The localized surface plasmon resonance exhibited by noble metal nanoparticles can be sensitively tuned by varying their size and interparticle distances. We report that corrosive vapour (ammonia) exposure dramatically reduces the population density of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) embedded within bacterial cellulose, leading to a larger distance between the remaining nanoparticles and a decrease in the UV-Vis absorbance associated with the AgNP plasmonic properties. We also found that the size distribution of AgNPs embedded in bacterial cellulose undergoes a reduction in the presence of volatile compounds released during food spoilage, modulating the studied nanoplasmonic properties. In fact, such a plasmonic nanopaper exhibits a change in colour from amber to light amber upon the explored corrosive vapour exposure and from amber to a grey or taupe colour upon fish or meat spoilage exposure. These phenomena are proposed as a simple visual detection of volatile compounds in a flexible, transparent, permeable and stable single-use nanoplasmonic membrane, which opens the way to innovative approaches and capabilities in gas sensing and smart packaging. Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available: Details on the estimations of evaporation rates and limits of detection, ESI figures and author contributions. See DOI: 10.1039/c6nr00537c

Are oysters being bored to death? Influence of Cliona celata on Crassostrea virginica condition, growth and survival.

PubMed

Carroll, John M; O'Shaughnessy, Kathryn A; Diedrich, Grant A; Finelli, Christopher M

2015-11-17

The boring sponge Cliona celata is a nuisance species that can have deleterious effects on eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica growth, condition, and survival. Surprisingly, however, these effects have not been well documented and when examined, results have been equi-vocal. In this study, we provide a direct comparison of growth, condition, and survival of sponge-colonized and uncolonized oysters in southeast North Carolina in 2 separate experiments. In the first experiment, sponge-colonized oysters exhibited significantly slower growth rates, reduced condition, and lower survival relative to uncolonized oysters, although results may have been confounded by oyster source. In the second experiment, using smaller oysters from the same source population, growth rate was again significantly reduced in colonized oysters relative to uncolonized oysters, however neither condition nor survival differed. In field surveys of the same population, colonized individuals across a range of sizes demonstrated significantly reduced condition. Further, condition index was negatively correlated with sponge biomass, which was positively correlated with oyster size, suggesting that the impact of the sponge changes with ontogeny. By investigating clearance rates, tissue isotopic and nutrient content, as well as caloric value, this study provides further evidence that sponge presence causes the oysters to divert energy into costly shell maintenance and repair at the expense of shell and somatic growth. Thus, although variable, our results demonstrate negative impacts of sponge infestation on oyster demographics, particularly as oysters grow larger.

Inter-varietal interactions among plants in genotypically diverse mixtures tend to decrease herbivore performance.

PubMed

Grettenberger, Ian M; Tooker, John F

2016-09-01

Much research has explored the effects of plant species diversity on herbivore populations, but far less has considered effects of plant genotypic diversity, or how abiotic stressors, like drought, can modify effects. Mechanisms by which plant genotypic diversity affects herbivore populations remain largely unresolved. We used greenhouse studies with a model system of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and bird cherry-oat aphid (Rhopalosiphum padi L.) to determine whether the genotypic diversity of a plant's neighborhood influences performance and fitness of herbivores on a focal plant and if drought changes the influence of neighborhood diversity. Taken across all varieties we tested, plant-plant interactions in diverse neighborhoods reduced aphid performance and generated associational resistance, although effects on aphids depended on variety identity. In diverse mixtures, drought stress greatly diminished the genotypic diversity-driven reduction in aphid performance. Neighborhood diversity influenced mother aphid size, and appeared to partially explain how plant-plant interactions reduced the number of offspring produced in mixtures. Plant size did not mediate effects on aphid performance, although neighborhood diversity reduced plant mass across varieties and watering treatments. Our results suggest inter-varietal interactions in genotypic mixtures can affect herbivore performance in the absence of herbivore movement and that abiotic stress may diminish any effects. Accounting for how neighborhood diversity influences resistance of an individual plant to herbivores will help aid development of mixtures of varieties for managing insect pests and clarify the role of plant genotypic diversity in ecosystems.

Population size dependency of measles epidemic that was scalable from Japanese prefectures to European countries.

PubMed

Yoshikura, Hiroshi

2018-04-27

Relation between number of measles patients (y) and population size (x) was expressed by an equation y = ax s , where a is a constant and s the slope of the plot; s was 2.04-2.17 for prefectures in Japan, i.e., the number of patients was proportional to square of the prefecture population size. For European countries that joined European Union no later than 2009, the slope was 1.43-1.87. The measles' population dependency found among prefectures in Japan was thus scalable up to European countries. It was surprising because, unlike Japan, population density in EU countries was not uniform and not proportional to the population size. The population size dependency was not observed among Western Pacific and South-East Asian countries probably on account of confounding interacting socioeconomic factors. Correlation between measles incidence and birth rate, infant mortality or GDP per capita was almost insignificant.Size distribution of local infection clusters (LICs) of measles and rubella in Japan followed power law. For measles, though the population dependency remained unchanged after "elimination", there was change in the Zipf-type plot of LIC sizes. After the "elimination", LICs linked to importation-related outbreaks in less populated prefectures emerged as the top-ranked LICs.

Relaxation of Selection With Equalization of Parental Contributions in Conservation Programs: An Experimental Test With Drosophila melanogaster

PubMed Central

Rodríguez-Ramilo, S. T.; Morán, P.; Caballero, A.

2006-01-01

Equalization of parental contributions is one of the most simple and widely recognized methods to maintain genetic diversity in conservation programs, as it halves the rate of increase in inbreeding and genetic drift. It has, however, the negative side effect of implying a reduced intensity of natural selection so that deleterious genes are less efficiently removed from the population with possible negative consequences on the reproductive capacity of the individuals. Theoretical results suggest that the lower fitness resulting from equalization of family sizes relative to that for free contribution schemes is expected to be substantial only for relatively large population sizes and after many generations. We present a long-term experiment with Drosophila melanogaster, comparing the fitness performance of lines maintained with equalization of contributions (EC) and others maintained with no management (NM), allowing for free matings and contributions from parents. Two (five) replicates of size N = 100 (20) individuals of each type of line were maintained for 38 generations. As expected, EC lines retained higher gene diversity and allelic richness for four microsatellite markers and a higher heritability for sternopleural bristle number. Measures of life-history traits, such as egg-to-adult viability, mating success, and global fitness declined with generations, but no significant differences were observed between EC and NM lines. Our results, therefore, provide no evidence to suggest that equalization of family sizes entails a disadvantage on the reproductive capacity of conserved populations in comparison with no management procedures, even after long periods of captivity. PMID:16299385

Testing the 'island rule' for a tenebrionid beetle (Coleoptera, Tenebrionidae)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmer, Miquel

2002-05-01

Insular populations and their closest mainland counterparts commonly display body size differences that are considered to fit the island rule, a theoretical framework to explain both dwarfism and gigantism in isolated animal populations. The island rule is used to explain the pattern of change of body size at the inter-specific level. But the model implicitly makes also a prediction for the body size of isolated populations of a single species. It suggests that, for a hypothetical species covering a wide range of island sizes, there exists a specific island size where this species reaches the largest body size. Body size would be small (in relative terms) in the smallest islets of the species range. It would increase with island size, and reach a maximum at some specific island size. However, additional increases from such a specific island size would instead promote body size reduction, and small (in relative terms) body sizes would be found again on the largest islands. The biogeographical patterns predicted by the island rule have been described and analysed for vertebrates only (mainly mammals), but remain largely untested for insects or other invertebrates. I analyse here the pattern of body size variation between seven isolated insular populations of a flightless beetle, Asida planipennis (Coleoptera, Tenebrionidae). This is an endemic species of Mallorca, Menorca and a number of islands and islets in the Balearic archipelago (western Mediterranean). The study covers seven of the 15 known populations (i.e., there are only 15 islands or islets inhabited by the species). The populations studied fit the pattern advanced above and we could, therefore, extrapolate the island rule to a very different kind of organism. However, the small sample size of some of the populations invites some caution at this early stage.

A New Method for Estimating the Effective Population Size from Allele Frequency Changes

PubMed Central

Pollak, Edward

1983-01-01

A new procedure is proposed for estimating the effective population size, given that information is available on changes in frequencies of the alleles at one or more independently segregating loci and the population is observed at two or more separate times. Approximate expressions are obtained for the variances of the new statistic, as well as others, also based on allele frequency changes, that have been discussed in the literature. This analysis indicates that the new statistic will generally have a smaller variance than the others. Estimates of effective population sizes and of the standard errors of the estimates are computed for data on two fly populations that have been discussed in earlier papers. In both cases, there is evidence that the effective population size is very much smaller than the minimum census size of the population. PMID:17246147

Colonial, more widely distributed and less abundant bird species undergo wider population fluctuations independent of their population trend

PubMed Central

Møller, Anders P.

2017-01-01

Understanding temporal variability in population size is important for conservation biology because wide population fluctuations increase the risk of extinction. Previous studies suggested that certain ecological, demographic, life-history and genetic characteristics of species might be related to the degree of their population fluctuations. We checked whether that was the case in a large sample of 231 European breeding bird species while taking a number of potentially confounding factors such as population trends or similarities among species due to common descent into account. When species-specific characteristics were analysed one by one, the magnitude of population fluctuations was positively related to coloniality, habitat, total breeding range, heterogeneity of breeding distribution and natal dispersal, and negatively related to urbanisation, abundance, relative number of subspecies, parasitism and proportion of polymorphic loci. However, when abundance (population size) was included in the analyses of the other parameters, only coloniality, habitat, total breeding range and abundance remained significantly related to population fluctuations. The analysis including all these predictors simultaneously showed that population size fluctuated more in colonial, less abundant species with larger breeding ranges. Other parameters seemed to be related to population fluctuations only because of their association with abundance or coloniality. The unexpected positive relationship between population fluctuations and total breeding range did not seem to be mediated by abundance. The link between population fluctuations and coloniality suggests a previously unrecognized cost of coloniality. The negative relationship between population size and population fluctuations might be explained by at least three types of non-mutually exclusive stochastic processes: demographic, environmental and genetic stochasticity. Measurement error in population indices, which was unknown, may have contributed to the negative relationship between population size and fluctuations, but apparently only to a minor extent. The association between population size and fluctuations suggests that populations might be stabilized by increasing population size. PMID:28253345

Small body size in an insect shifts development, prior to adult eclosion, towards early reproduction

PubMed Central

Thorne, Ashley D; Pexton, John J; Dytham, Calvin; Mayhew, Peter J

2006-01-01

Life-history theory has suggested that individual body size can strongly affect the allocation of resources to reproduction and away from other traits such as survival. In many insects, adults eclose with a proportion of their potential lifetime egg production that is already mature (the ovigeny index). We establish for the solitary parasitoid wasp Aphaereta genevensis that the ovigeny index decreases with adult body size, despite both initial egg load and potential lifetime fecundity increasing with body size. This outcome is predicted by adaptive models and is the first unequivocal intraspecific demonstration. Evidence suggests that a high ovigeny index carries a cost of reduced longevity in insects. Our results therefore contribute to the emerging evidence that small body size can favour a developmental shift in juveniles that favours early reproduction, but which has adverse late-life consequences. These findings are likely to have important implications for developmental biologists and population biologists. PMID:16600887

Genetic Diversity and Population Structure of the Rare and Endangered Plant Species Pulsatilla patens (L.) Mill in East Central Europe.

PubMed

Szczecińska, Monika; Sramko, Gabor; Wołosz, Katarzyna; Sawicki, Jakub

2016-01-01

Pulsatilla patens s.s. is a one of the most endangered plant species in Europe. The present range of this species in Europe is highly fragmented and the size of the populations has been dramatically reduced in the past 50 years. The rapid disappearance of P. patens localities in Europe has prompted the European Commission to initiate active protection of this critically endangered species. The aim of this study was to estimate the degree and distribution of genetic diversity within European populations of this endangered species. We screened 29 populations of P. patens using a set of six microsatellite primers. The results of our study indicate that the analyzed populations are characterized by low levels of genetic diversity (Ho = 0.005) and very high levels of inbreeding (FIS = 0.90). These results suggest that genetic erosion could be partially responsible for the lower fitness in smaller populations of this species. Private allelic richness was very low, being as low as 0.00 for most populations. Average genetic diversity over loci and mean number of alleles in P. patens populations were significantly correlated with population size, suggesting severe genetic drift. The results of AMOVA point to higher levels of variation within populations than between populations.The results of Structure and PCoA analyses suggest that the genetic structure of the studied P. patens populations fall into three clusters corresponding to geographical regions. The most isolated populations (mostly from Romania) formed a separate group with a homogeneous gene pool located at the southern, steppic part of the distribution range. Baltic, mostly Polish, populations fall into two genetic groups which were not fully compatible with their geographic distribution.Our results indicate the serious genetic depauperation of P. patens in the western part of its range, even hinting at an ongoing extinction vortex. Therefore, special conservation attention is required to maintain the populations of this highly endangered species of European Community interest.

The role of density-dependent individual growth in the persistence of freshwater salmonid populations.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone; Crivelli, Alain J; Jesensek, Dusan; De Leo, Giulio A

2008-06-01

Theoretical and empirical models of populations dynamics have paid little attention to the implications of density-dependent individual growth on the persistence and regulation of small freshwater salmonid populations. We have therefore designed a study aimed at testing our hypothesis that density-dependent individual growth is a process that enhances population recovery and reduces extinction risk in salmonid populations in a variable environment subject to disturbance events. This hypothesis was tested in two newly introduced marble trout (Salmo marmoratus) populations living in Slovenian streams (Zakojska and Gorska) subject to severe autumn floods. We developed a discrete-time stochastic individual-based model of population dynamics for each population with demographic parameters and compensatory responses tightly calibrated on data from individually tagged marble trout. The occurrence of severe flood events causing population collapses was explicitly accounted for in the model. We used the model in a population viability analysis setting to estimate the quasi-extinction risk and demographic indexes of the two marble trout populations when individual growth was density-dependent. We ran a set of simulations in which the effect of floods on population abundance was explicitly accounted for and another set of simulations in which flood events were not included in the model. These simulation results were compared with those of scenarios in which individual growth was modelled with density-independent Von Bertalanffy growth curves. Our results show how density-dependent individual growth may confer remarkable resilience to marble trout populations in case of major flood events. The resilience to flood events shown by the simulation results can be explained by the increase in size-dependent fecundity as a consequence of the drop in population size after a severe flood, which allows the population to quickly recover to the pre-event conditions. Our results suggest that density-dependent individual growth plays a potentially powerful role in the persistence of freshwater salmonids living in streams subject to recurrent yet unpredictable flood events.

Life history mediates mate limitation and population viability in self-incompatible plant species.

PubMed

Thrall, Peter H; Encinas-Viso, Francisco; Hoebee, Susan E; Young, Andrew G

2014-03-01

Genetically controlled self-incompatibility systems represent links between genetic diversity and plant demography with the potential to directly impact on population dynamics. We use an individual-based spatial simulation to investigate the demographic and genetic consequences of different self-incompatibility systems for plants that vary in reproductive capacity and lifespan. The results support the idea that, in the absence of inbreeding effects, populations of self-incompatible species will often be smaller and less viable than self-compatible species, particularly for shorter-lived organisms or where potential fecundity is low. At high ovule production and low mortality, self-incompatible and self-compatible species are demographically similar, thus self-incompatibility does not automatically lead to reduced mate availability or population viability. Overall, sporophytic codominant self-incompatibility was more limiting than gametophytic or sporophytic dominant systems, which generally behaved in a similar fashion. Under a narrow range of conditions, the sporophytic dominant system maintained marginally greater mate availability owing to the production of S locus homozygotes. While self-incompatibility reduces population size and persistence for a broad range of conditions, the actual number of S alleles, beyond that required for reproduction, is important for only a subset of life histories. For these situations, results suggest that addition of new S alleles may result in significant demographic rescue.

Life history mediates mate limitation and population viability in self-incompatible plant species

PubMed Central

Thrall, Peter H; Encinas-Viso, Francisco; Hoebee, Susan E; Young, Andrew G

2014-01-01

Genetically controlled self-incompatibility systems represent links between genetic diversity and plant demography with the potential to directly impact on population dynamics. We use an individual-based spatial simulation to investigate the demographic and genetic consequences of different self-incompatibility systems for plants that vary in reproductive capacity and lifespan. The results support the idea that, in the absence of inbreeding effects, populations of self-incompatible species will often be smaller and less viable than self-compatible species, particularly for shorter-lived organisms or where potential fecundity is low. At high ovule production and low mortality, self-incompatible and self-compatible species are demographically similar, thus self-incompatibility does not automatically lead to reduced mate availability or population viability. Overall, sporophytic codominant self-incompatibility was more limiting than gametophytic or sporophytic dominant systems, which generally behaved in a similar fashion. Under a narrow range of conditions, the sporophytic dominant system maintained marginally greater mate availability owing to the production of S locus homozygotes. While self-incompatibility reduces population size and persistence for a broad range of conditions, the actual number of S alleles, beyond that required for reproduction, is important for only a subset of life histories. For these situations, results suggest that addition of new S alleles may result in significant demographic rescue. PMID:24683451

Loss of Genetic Diversity and Increased Subdivision in an Endemic Alpine Stonefly Threatened by Climate Change

PubMed Central

Jordan, Steve; Giersch, J. Joseph; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Hotaling, Scott; Fanning, Liz; Tappenbeck, Tyler H.; Luikart, Gordon

2016-01-01

Much remains unknown about the genetic status and population connectivity of high-elevation and high-latitude freshwater invertebrates, which often persist near snow and ice masses that are disappearing due to climate change. Here we report on the conservation genetics of the meltwater stonefly Lednia tumana (Ricker) of Montana, USA, a cold-water obligate species. We sequenced 1530 bp of mtDNA from 116 L. tumana individuals representing “historic” (>10 yr old) and 2010 populations. The dominant haplotype was common in both time periods, while the second-most-common haplotype was found only in historic samples, having been lost in the interim. The 2010 populations also showed reduced gene and nucleotide diversity and increased genetic isolation. We found lower genetic diversity in L. tumana compared to two other North American stonefly species, Amphinemura linda (Ricker) and Pteronarcys californica Newport. Our results imply small effective sizes, increased fragmentation, limited gene flow, and loss of genetic variation among contemporary L. tumana populations, which can lead to reduced adaptive capacity and increased extinction risk. This study reinforces concerns that ongoing glacier loss threatens the persistence of L. tumana, and provides baseline data and analysis of how future environmental change could impact populations of similar organisms. PMID:27348125

Loss of genetic diversity and increased subdivision in an endemic Alpine Stonefly threatened by climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jordan, Steve; Giersch, J. Joseph; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Hotalling, Scott; Fanning, Liz; Tappenbeck, Tyler H.; Luikart, Gordon

2016-01-01

Much remains unknown about the genetic status and population connectivity of high-elevation and high-latitude freshwater invertebrates, which often persist near snow and ice masses that are disappearing due to climate change. Here we report on the conservation genetics of the meltwater stonefly Lednia tumana (Ricker) of Montana, USA, a cold-water obligate species. We sequenced 1530 bp of mtDNA from 116 L. tumana individuals representing “historic” (>10 yr old) and 2010 populations. The dominant haplotype was common in both time periods, while the second-most-common haplotype was found only in historic samples, having been lost in the interim. The 2010 populations also showed reduced gene and nucleotide diversity and increased genetic isolation. We found lower genetic diversity in L. tumana compared to two other North American stonefly species, Amphinemura linda (Ricker) and Pteronarcys californica Newport. Our results imply small effective sizes, increased fragmentation, limited gene flow, and loss of genetic variation among contemporary L. tumana populations, which can lead to reduced adaptive capacity and increased extinction risk. This study reinforces concerns that ongoing glacier loss threatens the persistence of L. tumana, and provides baseline data and analysis of how future environmental change could impact populations of similar organisms.

Genetic effects of habitat restoration in the Laurentian Great Lakes: an assessment of lake sturgeon origin and genetic diversity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jamie Marie Marranca,; Amy Welsh,; Roseman, Edward F.

2015-01-01

Lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) have experienced significant habitat loss, resulting in reduced population sizes. Three artificial reefs were built in the Huron-Erie corridor in the Great Lakes to replace lost spawning habitat. Genetic data were collected to determine the source and numbers of adult lake sturgeon spawning on the reefs and to determine if the founder effect resulted in reduced genetic diversity. DNA was extracted from larval tail clips and 12 microsatellite loci were amplified. Larval genotypes were then compared to 22 previously studied spawning lake sturgeon populations in the Great Lakes to determine the source of the parental population. The effective number of breeders (Nb) was calculated for each reef cohort. The larval genotypes were then compared to the source population to determine if there were any losses in genetic diversity that are indicative of the founder effect. The St. Clair and Detroit River adult populations were found to be the source parental population for the larvae collected on all three artificial reefs. There were large numbers of contributing adults relative to the number of sampled larvae. There was no significant difference between levels of genetic diversity in the source population and larval samples from the artificial reefs; however, there is some evidence for a genetic bottleneck in the reef populations likely due to the founder effect. Habitat restoration in the Huron-Erie corridor is likely resulting in increased habitat for the large lake sturgeon population in the system and in maintenance of the population's genetic diversity.

Population structure, density and food sources of Terebralia palustris (Potamididae: Gastropoda) in a low intertidal Avicennia marina mangrove stand (Inhaca Island, Mozambique)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penha-Lopes, Gil; Bouillon, Steven; Mangion, Perrine; Macia, Adriano; Paula, José

2009-09-01

Population structure and distribution of Terebralia palustris were compared with the environmental parameters within microhabitats in a monospecific stand of Avicennia marina in southern Mozambique. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses of T. palustris and potential food sources (leaves, pneumatophore epiphytes, and surface sediments) were examined to establish the feeding preferences of T. palustris. Stable isotope signatures of individuals of different size classes and from different microhabitats were compared with local food sources. Samples of surface sediments 2.5-10 m apart showed some variation (-21.2‰ to -23.0‰) in δ13C, probably due to different contributions from seagrasses, microalgae and mangrove leaves, while δ15N values varied between 8.7‰ and 15.8‰, indicating that there is a very high variability within a small-scale microcosm. Stable isotope signatures differed significantly between the T. palustris size classes and between individuals of the same size class, collected in different microhabitats. Results also suggested that smaller individuals feed on sediment, selecting mainly benthic microalgae, while larger individuals feed on sediment, epiphytes and mangrove leaves. Correlations were found between environmental parameters and gastropod population structure and distribution vs. the feeding preferences of individuals of different size classes and in different microhabitats. While organic content and the abundance of leaves were parameters that correlated best with the total density of gastropods (>85%), the abundance of pneumatophores and leaves, as well as grain size, correlated better with the gastropod size distribution (>65%). Young individuals (height < 3 cm) occur predominantly in microhabitats characterized by a low density of leaf litter and pneumatophores, reduced organic matter and larger grain size, these being characteristic of lower intertidal open areas that favour benthic microalgal growth. With increasing shell height, T. palustris individuals start occupying microhabitats nearer the mangrove trees characterized by large densities of pneumatophores and litter, as well as sediments of smaller grain size, leading to higher organic matter availability in the sediment.

Population estimates of Nearctic shorebirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrison, R.I.G.; Gill, Robert E.; Harrington, B.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Page, G.W.; Gratto-Trevor, C. L.; Haig, S.M.

2000-01-01

Estimates are presented for the population sizes of 53 species of Nearctic shorebirds occurring regularly in North America, plus four species that breed occasionally. Shorebird population sizes were derived from data obtained by a variety of methods from breeding, migration and wintering areas, and formal assessments of accuracy of counts or estimates are rarely available. Accurate estimates exist only for a few species that have been the subject of detailed investigation, and the likely accuracy of most estimates is considered poor or low. Population estimates range from a few tens to several millions. Overall, population estimates most commonly fell in the range of hundreds of thousands, particularly the low hundreds of thousands; estimated population sizes for large shorebird species currently all fall below 500,000. Population size was inversely related to size (mass) of the species, with a statistically significant negative regression between log (population size) and log (mass). Two outlying groups were evident on the regression graph: one, with populations lower than predicted, included species considered either to be "at risk" or particularly hard to count, and a second, with populations higher than predicted, included two species that are hunted. Population estimates are an integral part of conservation plans being developed for shorebirds in the United States and Canada, and may be used to identify areas of key international and regional importance.

Estimates of shorebird populations in North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrison, R.I.G.; Gill, Robert E.; Harrington, B.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Page, G.W.; Gratto-Trevor, C. L.; Haig, S.M.

2001-01-01

Estimates are presented for the population sizes of 53 species of Nearctic shorebirds occurring regularly in North America, plus four species that breed occasionally. Population estimates range from a few tens to several millions. Overall, population estimates most commonly fall in the range of hundreds of thousands, particularly the low hundreds of thousands; estimated population sizes for large shorebird species currently all fall below 500 000. Population size is inversely related to size (mass) of the species, with a statistically significant negative regression between log(population size) and log(mass). Two outlying groups are evident on the regression graph: one, with populations lower than predicted, includes species considered to be either “at risk” or particularly hard to count, and a second, with populations higher than predicted, includes two species that are hunted. Shorebird population sizes were derived from data obtained by a variety of methods from breeding, migration, and wintering areas, and formal assessments of accuracy of counts or estimates are rarely available. Accurate estimates exist only for a few species that have been the subject of detailed investigation, and the likely accuracy of most estimates is considered poor or low. Population estimates are an integral part of conservation plans being developed for shorebirds in the United States and Canada and may be used to identify areas of key international and regional importance.

Substantial population structure of Plasmodium vivax in Thailand facilitates identification of the sources of residual transmission.

PubMed

Kittichai, Veerayuth; Koepfli, Cristian; Nguitragool, Wang; Sattabongkot, Jetsumon; Cui, Liwang

2017-10-01

Plasmodium vivax transmission in Thailand has been substantially reduced over the past 10 years, yet it remains highly endemic along international borders. Understanding the genetic relationship of residual parasite populations can help track the origins of the parasites that are reintroduced into malaria-free regions within the country. A total of 127 P. vivax isolates were genotyped from two western provinces (Tak and Kanchanaburi) and one eastern province (Ubon Ratchathani) of Thailand using 10 microsatellite markers. Genetic diversity was high, but recent clonal expansion was detected in all three provinces. Substantial population structure and genetic differentiation of parasites among provinces suggest limited gene flow among these sites. There was no haplotype sharing among the three sites, and a reduced panel of four microsatellite markers was sufficient to assign the parasites to their provincial origins. Significant parasite genetic differentiation between provinces shows successful interruption of parasite spread within Thailand, but high diversity along international borders implies a substantial parasite population size in these regions. The provincial origin of P. vivax cases can be reliably determined by genotyping four microsatellite markers, which should be useful for monitoring parasite reintroduction after malaria elimination.

Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

PubMed

Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

2014-11-01

Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean population size. Results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of a species over its range may be facilitated by taking the spatial structure of population size into account as well as by considering changes in population processes as a function of position within the range of the species. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Effect of 25% Sodium Reduction on Sales of a Top-Selling Bread in Remote Indigenous Australian Community Stores: A Controlled Intervention Trial

PubMed Central

McMahon, Emma; Webster, Jacqui; Brimblecombe, Julie

2017-01-01

Reducing sodium in the food supply is key to achieving population salt targets, but maintaining sales is important to ensuring commercial viability and maximising clinical impact. We investigated whether 25% sodium reduction in a top-selling bread affected sales in 26 remote Indigenous community stores. After a 23-week baseline period, 11 control stores received the regular-salt bread (400 mg Na/100 g) and 15 intervention stores received the reduced-salt version (300 mg Na/100 g) for 12-weeks. Sales data were collected to examine difference between groups in change from baseline to follow-up (effect size) in sales (primary outcome) or sodium density, analysed using a mixed model. There was no significant effect on market share (−0.31%; 95% CI −0.68, 0.07; p = 0.11) or weekly dollars ($58; −149, 266; p = 0.58). Sodium density of all purchases was not significantly reduced (−8 mg Na/MJ; −18, 2; p = 0.14), but 25% reduction across all bread could significantly reduce sodium (−12; −23, −1; p = 0.03). We found 25% salt reduction in a top-selling bread did not affect sales in remote Indigenous community stores. If achieved across all breads, estimated salt intake in remote Indigenous Australian communities would be reduced by approximately 15% of the magnitude needed to achieve population salt targets, which could lead to significant health gains at the population-level. PMID:28264485

Whole genome SNP discovery and analysis of genetic diversity in Turkey (Meleagris gallopavo)

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) is an important agricultural species and the second largest contributor to the world’s poultry meat production. Genetic improvement is attributed largely to selective breeding programs that rely on highly heritable phenotypic traits, such as body size and breast muscle development. Commercial breeding with small effective population sizes and epistasis can result in loss of genetic diversity, which in turn can lead to reduced individual fitness and reduced response to selection. The presence of genomic diversity in domestic livestock species therefore, is of great importance and a prerequisite for rapid and accurate genetic improvement of selected breeds in various environments, as well as to facilitate rapid adaptation to potential changes in breeding goals. Genomic selection requires a large number of genetic markers such as e.g. single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) the most abundant source of genetic variation within the genome. Results Alignment of next generation sequencing data of 32 individual turkeys from different populations was used for the discovery of 5.49 million SNPs, which subsequently were used for the analysis of genetic diversity among the different populations. All of the commercial lines branched from a single node relative to the heritage varieties and the South Mexican turkey population. Heterozygosity of all individuals from the different turkey populations ranged from 0.17-2.73 SNPs/Kb, while heterozygosity of populations ranged from 0.73-1.64 SNPs/Kb. The average frequency of heterozygous SNPs in individual turkeys was 1.07 SNPs/Kb. Five genomic regions with very low nucleotide variation were identified in domestic turkeys that showed state of fixation towards alleles different than wild alleles. Conclusion The turkey genome is much less diverse with a relatively low frequency of heterozygous SNPs as compared to other livestock species like chicken and pig. The whole genome SNP discovery study in turkey resulted in the detection of 5.49 million putative SNPs compared to the reference genome. All commercial lines appear to share a common origin. Presence of different alleles/haplotypes in the SM population highlights that specific haplotypes have been selected in the modern domesticated turkey. PMID:22891612

Population size estimation of men who have sex with men through the network scale-up method in Japan.

PubMed

Ezoe, Satoshi; Morooka, Takeo; Noda, Tatsuya; Sabin, Miriam Lewis; Koike, Soichi

2012-01-01

Men who have sex with men (MSM) are one of the groups most at risk for HIV infection in Japan. However, size estimates of MSM populations have not been conducted with sufficient frequency and rigor because of the difficulty, high cost and stigma associated with reaching such populations. This study examined an innovative and simple method for estimating the size of the MSM population in Japan. We combined an internet survey with the network scale-up method, a social network method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations, for the first time in Japan. An internet survey was conducted among 1,500 internet users who registered with a nationwide internet-research agency. The survey participants were asked how many members of particular groups with known population sizes (firepersons, police officers, and military personnel) they knew as acquaintances. The participants were also asked to identify the number of their acquaintances whom they understood to be MSM. Using these survey results with the network scale-up method, the personal network size and MSM population size were estimated. The personal network size was estimated to be 363.5 regardless of the sex of the acquaintances and 174.0 for only male acquaintances. The estimated MSM prevalence among the total male population in Japan was 0.0402% without adjustment, and 2.87% after adjusting for the transmission error of MSM. The estimated personal network size and MSM prevalence seen in this study were comparable to those from previous survey results based on the direct-estimation method. Estimating population sizes through combining an internet survey with the network scale-up method appeared to be an effective method from the perspectives of rapidity, simplicity, and low cost as compared with more-conventional methods.

Population ecology of the gulf ribbed mussel across a salinity gradient: recruitment, growth and density

USGS Publications Warehouse

Honig, Aaron; Supan, John; LaPeyre, Megan K.

2015-01-01

Benthic intertidal bivalves play an essential role in estuarine ecosystems by contributing to habitat provision, water filtration, and promoting productivity. As such, changes that impact population distributions and persistence of local bivalve populations may have large ecosystem level consequences. Recruitment, growth, mortality, population size structure and density of the gulf coast ribbed mussel, Geukensia granosissima, were examined across a salinity gradient in southeastern Louisiana. Data were collected along 100-m transects at interior and edge marsh plots located at duplicate sites in upper (salinity ~4 psu), central (salinity ~8 psu) and lower (salinity ~15 psu) Barataria Bay, Louisiana, U.S.A. Growth, mortality and recruitment were measured in established plots from April through November 2012. Mussel densities were greatest within the middle bay (salinity ~8) regardless of flooding regime, but strongly associated with highest stem densities of Juncus roemerianus vegetation. Mussel recruitment, growth, size and survival were significantly higher at mid and high salinity marsh edge sites as compared to all interior marsh and low salinity sites. The observed patterns of density, growth and mortality in Barataria Bay may reflect detrital food resource availability, host vegetation community distribution along the salinity gradient, salinity tolerance of the mussel, and reduced predation at higher salinity edge sites.

Increasing frequency of low summer precipitation synchronizes dynamics and compromises metapopulation stability in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

PubMed Central

Tack, Ayco J. M.; Mononen, Tommi; Hanski, Ilkka

2015-01-01

Climate change is known to shift species' geographical ranges, phenologies and abundances, but less is known about other population dynamic consequences. Here, we analyse spatio-temporal dynamics of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in a network of 4000 dry meadows during 21 years. The results demonstrate two strong, related patterns: the amplitude of year-to-year fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole has increased, though there is no long-term trend in average abundance; and there is a highly significant increase in the level of spatial synchrony in population dynamics. The increased synchrony cannot be explained by increasing within-year spatial correlation in precipitation, the key environmental driver of population change, or in per capita growth rate. On the other hand, the frequency of drought during a critical life-history stage (early larval instars) has increased over the years, which is sufficient to explain the increasing amplitude and the expanding spatial synchrony in metapopulation dynamics. Increased spatial synchrony has the general effect of reducing long-term metapopulation viability even if there is no change in average metapopulation size. This study demonstrates how temporal changes in weather conditions can lead to striking changes in spatio-temporal population dynamics. PMID:25854888

Estimation of census and effective population sizes: the increasing usefulness of DNA-based approaches

Treesearch

Gordon Luikart; Nils Ryman; David A. Tallmon; Michael K. Schwartz; Fred W. Allendorf

2010-01-01

Population census size (NC) and effective population sizes (Ne) are two crucial parameters that influence population viability, wildlife management decisions, and conservation planning. Genetic estimators of both NC and Ne are increasingly widely used because molecular markers are increasingly available, statistical methods are improving rapidly, and genetic estimators...

Impacts of upstream drought and water withdrawals on the health and survival of downstream estuarine oyster populations

PubMed Central

Petes, Laura E; Brown, Alicia J; Knight, Carley R

2012-01-01

Increases in the frequency, duration, and severity of regional drought pose major threats to the health and integrity of downstream ecosystems. During 2007–2008, the U.S. southeast experienced one of the most severe droughts on record. Drought and water withdrawals in the upstream watershed led to decreased freshwater input to Apalachicola Bay, Florida, an estuary that is home to a diversity of commercially and ecologically important organisms. This study applied a combination of laboratory experiments and field observations to investigate the effects of reduced freshwater input on Apalachicola oysters. Oysters suffered significant disease-related mortality under high-salinity, drought conditions, particularly during the warm summer months. Mortality was size-specific, with large oysters of commercially harvestable size being more susceptible than small oysters. A potential salinity threshold was revealed between 17 and 25 ppt, where small oysters began to suffer mortality, and large oysters exhibited an increase in mortality. These findings have important implications for watershed management, because upstream freshwater releases could be carefully timed and allocated during stressful periods of the summer to reduce disease-related oyster mortality. Integrated, forward-looking water management is needed, particularly under future scenarios of climate change and human population growth, to sustain the valuable ecosystem services on which humans depend. PMID:22957175

Positive selection drives faster-Z evolution in silkmoths

PubMed Central

Sackton, Timothy B.; Corbett-Detig, Russell B.; Nagaraju, Javaregowda; Vaishna, R. Lakshmi; Arunkumar, Kallare P.; Hartl, Daniel L.

2014-01-01

Genes linked to X or Z chromosomes, which are hemizygous in the heterogametic sex, are predicted to evolve at different rates than those on autosomes. This “faster-X effect” can arise either as a consequence of hemizygosity, which leads to more efficient selection for recessive beneficial mutations in the heterogametic sex, or as a consequence of reduced effective population size of the hemizygous chromosome, which leads to increased fixation of weakly deleterious mutations due to genetic drift. Empirical results to date suggest that, while the overall pattern across taxa is complicated, systems with male-heterogamy show a faster-X effect attributable to more efficient selection, while the faster-Z effect in female-heterogametic taxa is attributable to increased drift. To test the generality of the faster-Z pattern seen in birds and snakes, we sequenced the genome of the Lepidopteran silkmoth Bombyx huttoni. We show that silkmoths experience faster-Z evolution, but unlike in birds and snakes, the faster-Z effect appears to be attributable to more efficient positive selection. These results suggest that female-heterogamy alone is unlikely to explain the reduced efficacy of selection on the bird Z chromosome. It is likely that many factors, including differences in overall effective population size, influence Z chromosome evolution. PMID:24826901

Antimicrobial edible coatings and films from micro-emulsions and their food applications.

PubMed

Guo, Mingming; Yadav, Madhav P; Jin, Tony Z

2017-12-18

This study focused on the use of antimicrobial edible coatings and films from micro-emulsions to reduce populations of foodborne pathogens in foods. Corn-Bio-fiber gum (C-BFG) was used as an emulsifier with chitosan. Allyl isothiocyanate (AIT) and lauric arginate ester (LAE) served as antimicrobials. Micro-emulsions were obtained from a solution consisting of 1% chitosan, 0.5% C-BFG, and 1-4% AIT or LAE which was subject to high pressure homogenization (HPH) processing at 138MPa for 3cycles. Coatings and films produced from the micro-emulsions had micro-pores with sizes ranging from 100 to 300nm and micro-channels that hold antimicrobials effectively and facilitate the release of antimicrobials from the center to the surface of the films or coatings, thus enhancing their antimicrobial efficacy. The coatings and films with 1% AIT reduced populations of Listeria innocua by over 5, 2, and 3 log CFU in culture medium (Tryptic soy broth, TSB), ready-to-eat meat, and strawberries, respectively. The coatings and films with 1% LAE reduced populations of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Salmonella spp. by over 5 and 2 log CFU in TSB and strawberries, respectively. This study provides an innovative approach for the development of effective antimicrobial materials to reduce food borne pathogenic contaminants on ready-to-eat meat, strawberries, or other food. Published by Elsevier B.V.

On the reproductive success of early-generation hatchery fish in the wild

PubMed Central

Christie, Mark R; Ford, Michael J; Blouin, Michael S

2014-01-01

Large numbers of hatchery salmon spawn in wild populations each year. Hatchery fish with multiple generations of hatchery ancestry often have heritably lower reproductive success than wild fish and may reduce the fitness of an entire population. Whether this reduced fitness also occurs for hatchery fish created with local- and predominantly wild-origin parents remains controversial. Here, we review recent studies on the reproductive success of such ‘early-generation’ hatchery fish that spawn in the wild. Combining 51 estimates from six studies on four salmon species, we found that (i) early-generation hatchery fish averaged only half the reproductive success of their wild-origin counterparts when spawning in the wild, (ii) the reduction in reproductive success was more severe for males than for females, and (iii) all species showed reduced fitness due to hatchery rearing. We review commonalities among studies that point to possible mechanisms (e.g., environmental versus genetic effects). Furthermore, we illustrate that sample sizes typical of these studies result in low statistical power to detect fitness differences unless the differences are substantial. This review demonstrates that reduced fitness of early-generation hatchery fish may be a general phenomenon. Future research should focus on determining the causes of those fitness reductions and whether they lead to long-term reductions in the fitness of wild populations. PMID:25469167

Population viability of the Snake River chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emlen, John M.

1995-01-01

In the presence of historical data, population viability models of intermediate complexity can be parameterized and utilized to project the consequences of various management actions for endangered species. A general stochastic population dynamics model with density feedback, age structure, and autocorrelated environmental fluctuations was constructed and parameterized for best fit over 36 years of spring chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) redd count data in five Idaho index streams. Simulations indicate that persistence of the Snake River spring chinook salmon population depends primarily on density-independent mortality. Improvement of rearing habitat, predator control, reduced fishing pressure, and improved dam passage all would alleviate density-independent mortality. The current value of the Ricker α should provide for a continuation of the status quo. A recovery of the population to 1957–1961 levels within 100 years would require an approximately 75% increase in survival and (or) fecundity. Manipulations of the Ricker β are likely to have little or no effect on persistence versus extinction, but considerable influence on population size.

Seal dynamics on the Swedish west coast: Scenarios of competition as Baltic grey seal intrude on harbour seal territory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svensson, Carl Johan

2012-07-01

The Kattegat-Skagerrak region on the Swedish west coast is home to an abundant harbour seal population (Phoca vitulina) and a small scattered grey seal population (Halichoerus grypus). In addition, grey seal from the growing population in the Baltic Sea frequently migrate into the Kattegat-Skagerrak. Harbour seals on the west coast of Sweden show relatively high population growth (approximately 9%) compared to the Baltic grey seal in ice-free habitats (approximately 6%), which, in theory, makes harbour seal the stronger competitor of the two in this region. However, incidents of disease in harbour seals that lower population growth are becoming more frequent. These epidemics are primarily caused by the Phocine Distemper Virus (PDV), and may reduce population size with up to 70%. This study models the average development under potential scenarios of competing harbour- and Baltic grey seal populations using Leslie matrices and the Lotka-Volterra model of inter-specific competition. The model is parameterised with previously published data, and resource overlap is incorporated through density dependent pup survival. Using numerical methods short- and long-term abundances are simulated under weak, moderate and strong competition and for different frequencies of PDV epidemics. Results show that the harbour seals are resilient to competition while exerting a negative effect on grey seal abundance under moderate to strong competition. Hence Baltic grey seal benefit from weaker levels of competition. Under moderate and strong competition grey seal abundance is a direct function of the PDV frequency as this reduces the competitive strength of harbour seals. Theoretically this means that higher frequencies of PDV or other pathogens epidemics could facilitate an expansion of Baltic grey seal into Kattegat-Skagerrak. Independent of interaction strength and frequency of epidemics the projected changes to abundances are slow (50-100 years), and even in exceedingly stable populations very long time-series of population size estimates are necessary to determine interaction strength. From a management perspective, a more permanent grey seal population in Kattegat-Skagerrak is likely to increase the predation pressure on overfished regional cod populations, and also lead to higher prevalence of the cod parasite Pseudoterranova decipiens, which uses grey seal as end host. From a population ecology perspective, abundant Baltic grey seal in this region would facilitate the mixing of grey seals from the North Atlantic and the Baltic Sea, with unknown implications for the genetically divergent Baltic population.