Socioeconomic and geographical disparities in under-five and neonatal mortality in Uttar Pradesh, India.

PubMed

Dettrick, Zoe; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Hodge, Andrew

2014-05-01

As a part of the Millennium Development Goals, India seeks to substantially reduce its burden of childhood mortality. The success or failure of this goal may depend on outcomes within India's most populous state, Uttar Pradesh. This study examines the level of disparities in under-five and neonatal mortality across a range of equity markers within the state. Estimates of under-five and neonatal mortality rates were computed using five datasets, from three available sources: sample registration system, summary birth histories in surveys, and complete birth histories. Disparities were evaluated via comparisons of mortality rates by rural-urban location, ethnicity, wealth, and districts. While Uttar Pradesh has experienced declines in both rates of under-five (162-108 per 1,000 live births) and neonatal (76-49 per 1,000 live births) mortality, the rate of decline has been slow (averaging 2 % per annum). Mortality trends in rural and urban areas are showing signs of convergence, largely due to the much slower rate of change in urban areas. While the gap between rich and poor households has decreased in both urban and rural areas, trends suggest that differences in mortality will remain. Caste-related disparities remain high and show no signs of diminishing. Of concern are also the signs of stagnation in mortality amongst groups with greater ability to access services, such as the urban middle class. Notwithstanding the slow but steady reduction of absolute levels of childhood mortality within Uttar Pradesh, the distribution of the mortality by sub-state populations remains unequal. Future progress may require significant investment in quality of care provided to all sections of the community.

Location matters: trends in inequalities in child mortality in Indonesia. Evidence from repeated cross-sectional surveys.

PubMed

Hodge, Andrew; Firth, Sonja; Marthias, Tiara; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana

2014-01-01

Considerable improvements in life expectancy and other human development indicators in Indonesia are thought to mask considerable disparities between populations in the country. We examine the existence and extent of these disparities by measuring trends and inequalities in the under-five mortality rate and neonatal mortality rate across wealth, education and geography. Using data from seven waves of the Indonesian Demographic and Health Surveys, direct estimates of under-five and neonatal mortality rates were generated for 1980-2011. Absolute and relative inequalities were measured by rate differences and ratios, and where possible, slope and relative indices of inequality. Disparities were assessed by levels of rural/urban location, island groups, maternal education and household wealth. Declines in national rates of under-five and neonatal mortality have accorded with reductions of absolute inequalities in clusters stratified by wealth, maternal education and rural/urban location. Across these groups, relative inequalities have generally stabilised, with possible increases with respect to mortality across wealth subpopulations. Both relative and absolute inequalities in rates of under-five and neonatal mortality stratified by island divisions have widened. Indonesia has made considerable gains in reducing under-five and neonatal mortality at a national level, with the largest reductions happening before the Asian financial crisis (1997-98) and decentralisation (2000). Hasty implementation of decentralisation reforms may have contributed to a slowdown in mortality rate reduction thereafter. Widening inequities between the most developed provinces of Java-Bali and those of other island groupings should be of particular concern for a country embarking on an ambitious plan for universal health coverage by 2019. A focus on addressing the key supply side barriers to accessing health care and on the social determinants of health in remote and disadvantaged regions will be essential for this plan to be realised.

The Associations between Types of Ambient PM2.5 and Under-Five and Maternal Mortality in Africa.

PubMed

Owili, Patrick Opiyo; Lien, Wei-Hung; Muga, Miriam Adoyo; Lin, Tang-Huang

2017-03-30

Exploring the effects of different types of PM 2.5 is necessary to reduce associated deaths, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Hence we determined types of ambient PM 2.5 before exploring their effects on under-five and maternal mortality in Africa. The spectral derivate of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products from 2000 to 2015 were employed to determine the aerosol types before using Generalized Linear and Additive Mixed-Effect models with Poisson link function to explore the associations and penalized spline for dose-response relationships. Four types of PM 2.5 were identified in terms of mineral dust, anthropogenic pollutant, biomass burning and mixture aerosols. The results demonstrate that biomass PM 2.5 increased the rate of under-five mortality in Western and Central Africa, each by 2%, and maternal mortality in Central Africa by 19%. Anthropogenic PM 2.5 increased under-five and maternal deaths in Northern Africa by 5% and 10%, respectively, and maternal deaths by 4% in Eastern Africa. Dust PM 2.5 increased under-five deaths in Northern, Western, and Central Africa by 3%, 1%, and 10%, respectively. Mixture PM 2.5 only increased under-five deaths and maternal deaths in Western (incidence rate ratio = 1.01, p < 0.10) and Eastern Africa (incidence rate ratio = 1.06, p < 0.01), respectively. The findings indicate the types of ambient PM 2.5 are significantly associated with under-five and maternal mortality in Africa where the exposure level usually exceeds the World Health Organization's (WHO) standards. Appropriate policy actions on protective and control measures are therefore suggested and should be developed and implemented accordingly.

The Associations between Types of Ambient PM2.5 and Under-Five and Maternal Mortality in Africa

PubMed Central

Owili, Patrick Opiyo; Lien, Wei-Hung; Muga, Miriam Adoyo; Lin, Tang-Huang

2017-01-01

Exploring the effects of different types of PM2.5 is necessary to reduce associated deaths, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Hence we determined types of ambient PM2.5 before exploring their effects on under-five and maternal mortality in Africa. The spectral derivate of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products from 2000 to 2015 were employed to determine the aerosol types before using Generalized Linear and Additive Mixed-Effect models with Poisson link function to explore the associations and penalized spline for dose-response relationships. Four types of PM2.5 were identified in terms of mineral dust, anthropogenic pollutant, biomass burning and mixture aerosols. The results demonstrate that biomass PM2.5 increased the rate of under-five mortality in Western and Central Africa, each by 2%, and maternal mortality in Central Africa by 19%. Anthropogenic PM2.5 increased under-five and maternal deaths in Northern Africa by 5% and 10%, respectively, and maternal deaths by 4% in Eastern Africa. Dust PM2.5 increased under-five deaths in Northern, Western, and Central Africa by 3%, 1%, and 10%, respectively. Mixture PM2.5 only increased under-five deaths and maternal deaths in Western (incidence rate ratio = 1.01, p < 0.10) and Eastern Africa (incidence rate ratio = 1.06, p < 0.01), respectively. The findings indicate the types of ambient PM2.5 are significantly associated with under-five and maternal mortality in Africa where the exposure level usually exceeds the World Health Organization’s (WHO) standards. Appropriate policy actions on protective and control measures are therefore suggested and should be developed and implemented accordingly. PMID:28358348

Entrenched geographical and socioeconomic disparities in child mortality: trends in absolute and relative inequalities in Cambodia.

PubMed

Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Durham, Jo; Hodge, Andrew

2014-01-01

Cambodia has made considerable improvements in mortality rates for children under the age of five and neonates. These improvements may, however, mask considerable disparities between subnational populations. In this paper, we examine the extent of the country's child mortality inequalities. Mortality rates for children under-five and neonates were directly estimated using the 2000, 2005 and 2010 waves of the Cambodian Demographic Health Survey. Disparities were measured on both absolute and relative scales using rate differences and ratios, and where applicable, slope and relative indices of inequality by levels of rural/urban location, regions and household wealth. Since 2000, considerable reductions in under-five and to a lesser extent in neonatal mortality rates have been observed. This mortality decline has, however, been accompanied by an increase in relative inequality in both rates of child mortality for geography-related stratifying markers. For absolute inequality amongst regions, most trends are increasing, particularly for neonatal mortality, but are not statistically significant. The only exception to this general pattern is the statistically significant positive trend in absolute inequality for under-five mortality in the Coastal region. For wealth, some evidence for increases in both relative and absolute inequality for neonates is observed. Despite considerable gains in reducing under-five and neonatal mortality at a national level, entrenched and increased geographical and wealth-based inequality in mortality, at least on a relative scale, remain. As expected, national progress seems to be associated with the period of political and macroeconomic stability that started in the early 2000s. However, issues of quality of care and potential non-inclusive economic growth might explain remaining disparities, particularly across wealth and geography markers. A focus on further addressing key supply and demand side barriers to accessing maternal and child health care and on the social determinants of health will be essential in narrowing inequalities.

Household air pollution from use of cooking fuel and under-five mortality: The role of breastfeeding status and kitchen location in Pakistan

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Household air pollution (HAP) mainly from cooking fuel is one of the major causes of respiratory illness and deaths among young children in low and middle-income countries like Pakistan. This study investigates for the first time the association between HAP from cooking fuel and under-five mortality using the 2013 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) data. Multi-level logistic regression models were used to examine the association between HAP and under-five mortality in a total of 11,507 living children across four age-groups (neonatal aged 0–28 days, post-neonatal aged 1–11 months, child aged 12–59 months and under-five aged 0–59 months). Use of cooking fuel was weakly associated with total under-five mortality (OR = 1.22, 95%CI = 0.92–1.64, P = 0.170), with stronger associations evident for sub-group analyses of children aged 12–59 months (OR = 1.98, 95%CI = 0.75–5.25, P = 0.169). Strong associations between use of cooking fuel and mortality were evident (ORs >5) in those aged 12–59 months for households without a separate kitchen using polluting fuels, and in children whose mother never breastfed. The results of this study suggest that HAP from cooking fuel is associated with a modest increase in the risk of death among children under five years of age in Pakistan, but particularly in those aged 12–59 months, and those living in poorer socioeconomic conditions. To reduce exposure to cooking fuel which is a preventable determinant of under-five mortality in Pakistan, the challenge remains to promote behavioural interventions such as breastfeeding in infancy period, keeping young children away from the cooking area, and improvements in housing and kitchen design. PMID:28278260

Indirect child mortality estimation technique to identify trends of under-five mortality in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Ayele, Dawit G; Zewotir, Temesgen; Mwambi, Henry

2016-03-01

In sub-Saharan African countries, the chance of a child dying before the age of five years is high. The problem is similar in Ethiopia, but it shows a decrease over years. The 2000; 2005 and 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey results were used for this work. The purpose of the study is to detect the pattern of under-five child mortality overtime. Indirect child mortality estimation technique is adapted to examine the under-five child mortality trend in Ethiopia. From the result, it was possible to see the trend of under-five child mortality in Ethiopia. The under-five child mortality shows a decline in Ethiopia. From the study, it can be seen that there is a positive correlation between mother and child survival which is almost certain in any population. Therefore, this study shows the trend of under-five mortality in Ethiopia and decline over time.

Monitoring child mortality through community health worker reporting of births and deaths in Malawi: validation against a household mortality survey.

PubMed

Amouzou, Agbessi; Banda, Benjamin; Kachaka, Willie; Joos, Olga; Kanyuka, Mercy; Hill, Kenneth; Bryce, Jennifer

2014-01-01

The rate of decline in child mortality is too slow in most African countries to achieve the Millennium Development Goal of reducing under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Effective strategies to monitor child mortality are needed where accurate vital registration data are lacking to help governments assess and report on progress in child survival. We present results from a test of a mortality monitoring approach based on recording of births and deaths by specially trained community health workers (CHWs) in Malawi. Government-employed community health workers in Malawi are responsible for maintaining a Village Health Register, in which they record births and deaths that occur in their catchment area. We expanded on this system to provide additional training, supervision and incentives. We tested the equivalence between child mortality rates obtained from data on births and deaths collected by 160 randomly-selected and trained CHWs over twenty months in two districts to those computed through a standard household mortality survey. CHW reports produced an under-five mortality rate that was 84% (95%CI: [0.71,1.00]) of the household survey mortality rate and statistically equivalent to it. However, CHW data consistently underestimated under-five mortality, with levels of under-estimation increasing over time. Under-five deaths were more likely to be missed than births. Neonatal and infant deaths were more likely to be missed than older deaths. This first test of the accuracy and completeness of vital events data reported by CHWs in Malawi as a strategy for monitoring child mortality shows promising results but underestimated child mortality and was not stable over the four periods assessed. Given the Malawi government's commitment to strengthen its vital registration system, we are working with the Ministry of Health to implement a revised version of the approach that provides increased support to CHWs.

Associates of Neonatal, Infant and Child Mortality in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan: A Multilevel Analysis Using the 2012-2013 Demographic and Health Surveys.

PubMed

Helova, Anna; Hearld, Kristine R; Budhwani, Henna

2017-02-01

Objectives Pakistan is one of five nations contributing to half of the world's child mortality and holds under-five mortality rates which are nearly double global targets. Reasons for this shortfall include civil conflicts, political uncertainty, low education, poverty, rural-urban disparities, and limited health care access. The aim of this study was to explore associations between individual characteristics, community factors, and child mortality in Pakistan. Methods Data were derived from the 2012 to 2013 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey, and included 7399 live births and 380 child deaths. Multivariate, multilevel logistic regression was used to model risk of neonatal, infant and under-five child deaths. Results Seventy-one percent of child deaths occurred during the neonatal period. Significant factors (p < 0.05) associated with lower odds of child mortality included adhering to recommended minimum of 24 months interpregnancy interval and higher household wealth. These were significant for neonatal (OR 0.448; 0.871), infancy (OR 0.465; 0.881), and under-five deaths (OR 0.465; 0.879). Employed mothers had higher odds of neonatal (OR 1.479), infant (OR 1.506), and child mortality (OR 1.459). Likewise, women living in consanguineous marriages had higher odds of infant (OR 1.454) and under-five deaths (OR 1.381). Children in Balochistan, Punjab, and Sindh, regions disproportionately poor, rural with low levels of education, were at highest risk of dying. Conclusions for Practice Findings may assist in designing targeted interventions, developing appropriate public health messaging, and implementing policies designed to lower child mortality. Focusing on lowering rates of maternal poverty, increasing opportunities for education, and improving access to health care could assist in reducing child mortality in Pakistan.

Neonatal and pediatric healthcare worldwide: A report from UNICEF.

PubMed

Guerrera, Giacomo

2015-12-07

The 2013 UNICEF annual report on child mortality concluded that between 1990 and 2013, the annual number of deaths among children under-5 years of age has fallen to 6.6 million (uncertainty range, 6.3 to 7.0 million), corresponding to a 48% reduction from the 12.6 million deaths in 1990 (uncertainty range, 12.4 to 12.9 million). About half of under-5 deaths occur in only five countries: India, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan and China. By 2050, close to 40% of all live births will take place in Sub-Saharan Africa and 37% of the world's children under age five will live in the region. Most deaths can be attributable to preventable diseases. Pneumonia, diarrhea and malaria together killed roughly 2.2 million children under age five in 2012, accounting for a third of all under-five deaths. Emerging evidence has shown that children are at greater risk of dying before age five if they are born in rural areas, poor households, or to a mother denied basic education. While under-5 mortality was consistently reduced over the past 20 years, few progresses in reducing neonatal mortality as well as maternal mortality have been done. UNICEF is a leading partner in the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI), a far-reaching public-private partnership dedicated to increasing children's access to vaccines in poor countries. Early diagnosis and appropriate low-cost therapy of maternal and neonatal diseases are the challenges of the coming years. Therefore, there is the need to promote new experimental and clinical researches and to translate results in clinical practice. Laboratory medicine is strategic for promoting and validating innovative methods for managing the most important causes of maternal, neonatal and under-5 deaths, as well as to consistently reduce the gap between bench and bedside. This may be achieved by a close cooperation between laboratory medicine and industries for the development of new diagnostic tools, especially low-cost disposables easily usable by everyone, namely mothers, for an earlier and specific therapeutic treatments of such diseases like sepsis and infections. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Is there any association between parental education and child mortality? A study in a rural area of Bangladesh.

PubMed

Akter, T; Hoque, D M E; Chowdhury, E K; Rahman, M; Russell, M; Arifeen, S E

2015-12-01

To assess the association between parental education and under-five mortality, using the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) data from rural Bangladesh. It also investigated whether the association of parental education with under-five mortality had changed over time. This study was nested in the IMCI cluster randomized controlled trial. Participants considered for the analysis were all children aged under five years from the baseline (1995-2000) and the final (2002-2007) IMCI household survey. The analysis sample included 39,875 and 38,544 live births from the baseline and the final survey respectively. The outcome variable was under-five mortality and the exposure variables were mother's and father's education. Data were analysed with logistic regression. In 2002-2007, the odds of the under-five mortality were 38% lower for the children with mother having secondary education, compared to the children with uneducated mother. For similar educational differences for fathers, at the same time period, the odds of the under-five mortality were 16% lower. The association of mother's education with under-five mortality was significantly stronger in 2002-2007 compared to 1995-2000. Mother's education appears to have a strong and significant association with under-five mortality, compared to father's education. The association of mother's education with under-five mortality appears to have increased over time. Our findings indicate that investing on girls' education is a good strategy to combat infant mortality in developing countries. Copyright © 2015 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The causal effect of increased primary schooling on child mortality in Malawi: Universal primary education as a natural experiment.

PubMed

Makate, Marshall; Makate, Clifton

2016-11-01

The primary objective of this analysis is to investigate the causal effect of mother's schooling on under-five health - and the passageways through which schooling propagates - by exploiting the exogenous variability in schooling prompted by the 1994 universal primary schooling program in Malawi. This education policy, which saw the elimination of tuition fees across all primary schooling grades, creates an ideal setting for observing the causal influence of improved primary school enrollment on the under-five fatality rates of the subsequent generation. Our analysis uses data from three waves of the nationally representative Malawi Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 2000, 2004/05, and 2010. To address the potential endogeneity of schooling, we employ the mother's age at implementation of the tuition-free primary school policy in 1994 as an instrumental variable for the prospect of finishing primary level instruction. The results suggest that spending one year in school translated to a 3.22 percentage point reduction in mortality for infants and a 6.48 percent reduction for children under age five years. For mothers younger than 19 years, mortality was reduced by 5.95 percentage points. These figures remained approximately the same even after adjusting for potential confounders. However, we failed to find any statistically meaningful effect of the mother's education on neonatal survival. The juvenile fatality estimates we find are weakly robust to several robustness checks. We also explored the potential mechanisms by which increased maternal schooling might help enhance child survival. The findings indicated that an added year of motherly learning considerably improves the prospect of prenatal care use, literacy levels, father's educational level, and alters fertility behavior. Our results suggest that increasing the primary schooling prospects for young women might help reduce under-five mortality in less-industrialized regions experiencing high under-five fatalities such as in sub-Saharan Africa. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling and forecasting of the under-five mortality rate in Kermanshah province in Iran: a time series analysis.

PubMed

Rostami, Mehran; Jalilian, Abdollah; Hamzeh, Behrooz; Laghaei, Zahra

2015-01-01

The target of the Fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG-4) is to reduce the rate of under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Despite substantial progress towards achieving the target of the MDG-4 in Iran at the national level, differences at the sub-national levels should be taken into consideration. The under-five mortality data available from the Deputy of Public Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, was used in order to perform a time series analysis of the monthly under-five mortality rate (U5MR) from 2005 to 2012 in Kermanshah province in the west of Iran. After primary analysis, a seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average model was chosen as the best fitting model based on model selection criteria. The model was assessed and proved to be adequate in describing variations in the data. However, the unexpected presence of a stochastic increasing trend and a seasonal component with a periodicity of six months in the fitted model are very likely to be consequences of poor quality of data collection and reporting systems. The present work is the first attempt at time series modeling of the U5MR in Iran, and reveals that improvement of under-five mortality data collection in health facilities and their corresponding systems is a major challenge to fully achieving the MGD-4 in Iran. Studies similar to the present work can enhance the understanding of the invisible patterns in U5MR, monitor progress towards the MGD-4, and predict the impact of future variations on the U5MR.

Equity and geography: the case of child mortality in Papua New Guinea.

PubMed

Bauze, Anna E; Tran, Linda N; Nguyen, Kim-Huong; Firth, Sonja; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura; Hodge, Andrew; Lopez, Alan D

2012-01-01

Recent assessments show continued decline in child mortality in Papua New Guinea (PNG), yet complete subnational analyses remain rare. This study aims to estimate under-five mortality in PNG at national and subnational levels to examine the importance of geographical inequities in health outcomes and track progress towards Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4. We performed retrospective data validation of the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) 2006 using 2000 Census data, then applied advanced indirect methods to estimate under-five mortality rates between 1976 and 2000. The DHS 2006 was found to be unreliable. Hence we used the 2000 Census to estimate under-five mortality rates at national and subnational levels. During the period under study, PNG experienced a slow reduction in national under-five mortality from approximately 103 to 78 deaths per 1,000 live births. Subnational analyses revealed significant disparities between rural and urban populations as well as inter- and intra-regional variations. Some of the provinces that performed the best (worst) in terms of under-five mortality included the districts that performed worst (best), with district-level under-five mortality rates correlating strongly with poverty levels and access to services. The evidence from PNG demonstrates substantial within-province heterogeneity, suggesting that under-five mortality needs to be addressed at subnational levels. This is especially relevant in countries, like PNG, where responsibility for health services is devolved to provinces and districts. This study presents the first comprehensive estimates of under-five mortality at the district level for PNG. The results demonstrate that for countries that rely on few data sources even greater importance must be given to the quality of future population surveys and to the exploration of alternative options of birth and death surveillance.

Child Mortality Estimation: Accelerated Progress in Reducing Global Child Mortality, 1990–2010

PubMed Central

Hill, Kenneth; You, Danzhen; Inoue, Mie; Oestergaard, Mikkel Z.; Hill, Kenneth; Alkema, Leontine; Cousens, Simon; Croft, Trevor; Guillot, Michel; Pedersen, Jon; Walker, Neff; Wilmoth, John; Jones, Gareth

2012-01-01

Monitoring development indicators has become a central interest of international agencies and countries for tracking progress towards the Millennium Development Goals. In this review, which also provides an introduction to a collection of articles, we describe the methodology used by the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation to track country-specific changes in the key indicator for Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4), the decline of the under-five mortality rate (the probability of dying between birth and age five, also denoted in the literature as U5MR and 5 q 0). We review how relevant data from civil registration, sample registration, population censuses, and household surveys are compiled and assessed for United Nations member states, and how time series regression models are fitted to all points of acceptable quality to establish the trends in U5MR from which infant and neonatal mortality rates are generally derived. The application of this methodology indicates that, between 1990 and 2010, the global U5MR fell from 88 to 57 deaths per 1,000 live births, and the annual number of under-five deaths fell from 12.0 to 7.6 million. Although the annual rate of reduction in the U5MR accelerated from 1.9% for the period 1990–2000 to 2.5% for the period 2000–2010, it remains well below the 4.4% annual rate of reduction required to achieve the MDG 4 goal of a two-thirds reduction in U5MR from its 1990 value by 2015. Thus, despite progress in reducing child mortality worldwide, and an encouraging increase in the pace of decline over the last two decades, MDG 4 will not be met without greatly increasing efforts to reduce child deaths. PMID:22952441

Cost-effectiveness of prenatal food and micronutrient interventions on under-five mortality and stunting: Analysis of data from the MINIMat randomized trial, Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Selling, Katarina Ekholm; Shaheen, Rubina; Khan, Ashraful Islam; Persson, Lars-Åke; Lindholm, Lars

2018-01-01

Introduction Nutrition interventions may have favourable as well as unfavourable effects. The Maternal and Infant Nutrition Interventions in Matlab (MINIMat), with early prenatal food and micronutrient supplementation, reduced infant mortality and were reported to be very cost-effective. However, the multiple micronutrients (MMS) supplement was associated with an increased risk of stunted growth in infancy and early childhood. This unfavourable outcome was not included in the previous cost-effectiveness analysis. The aim of this study is to evaluate whether the MINIMat interventions remain cost-effective in view of both favourable (decreased under-five-years mortality) and unfavourable (increased stunting) outcomes. Method Pregnant women in rural Bangladesh, where food insecurity still is prevalent, were randomized to early (E) or usual (U) invitation to be given food supplementation and daily doses of 30 mg, or 60 mg iron with 400 μg of folic acid, or MMS with 15 micronutrients including 30 mg iron and 400 μg of folic acid. E reduced stunting at 4.5 years compared with U, MMS increased stunting at 4.5 years compared with Fe60, while the combination EMMS reduced infant mortality compared with UFe60. The outcome measure used was disability adjusted life years (DALYs), a measure of overall disease burden that combines years of life lost due to premature mortality (under five-year mortality) and years lived with disability (stunting). Incremental cost effectiveness ratios were calculated using cost data from already published studies. Results By incrementing UFe60 (standard practice) to EMMS, one DALY could be averted at a cost of US$24. Conclusion When both favourable and unfavourable outcomes were included in the analysis, early prenatal food and multiple micronutrient interventions remained highly cost effective and seem to be meaningful from a public health perspective. PMID:29447176

Cost-effectiveness of prenatal food and micronutrient interventions on under-five mortality and stunting: Analysis of data from the MINIMat randomized trial, Bangladesh.

PubMed

Svefors, Pernilla; Selling, Katarina Ekholm; Shaheen, Rubina; Khan, Ashraful Islam; Persson, Lars-Åke; Lindholm, Lars

2018-01-01

Nutrition interventions may have favourable as well as unfavourable effects. The Maternal and Infant Nutrition Interventions in Matlab (MINIMat), with early prenatal food and micronutrient supplementation, reduced infant mortality and were reported to be very cost-effective. However, the multiple micronutrients (MMS) supplement was associated with an increased risk of stunted growth in infancy and early childhood. This unfavourable outcome was not included in the previous cost-effectiveness analysis. The aim of this study is to evaluate whether the MINIMat interventions remain cost-effective in view of both favourable (decreased under-five-years mortality) and unfavourable (increased stunting) outcomes. Pregnant women in rural Bangladesh, where food insecurity still is prevalent, were randomized to early (E) or usual (U) invitation to be given food supplementation and daily doses of 30 mg, or 60 mg iron with 400 μg of folic acid, or MMS with 15 micronutrients including 30 mg iron and 400 μg of folic acid. E reduced stunting at 4.5 years compared with U, MMS increased stunting at 4.5 years compared with Fe60, while the combination EMMS reduced infant mortality compared with UFe60. The outcome measure used was disability adjusted life years (DALYs), a measure of overall disease burden that combines years of life lost due to premature mortality (under five-year mortality) and years lived with disability (stunting). Incremental cost effectiveness ratios were calculated using cost data from already published studies. By incrementing UFe60 (standard practice) to EMMS, one DALY could be averted at a cost of US$24. When both favourable and unfavourable outcomes were included in the analysis, early prenatal food and multiple micronutrient interventions remained highly cost effective and seem to be meaningful from a public health perspective.

The resource curse and child mortality, 1961-2011.

PubMed

Wigley, Simon

2017-03-01

There is now an extensive literature on the adverse effect of petroleum wealth on the political, economic and social well-being of a country. In this study we examine whether the so-called resource curse extends to the health of children, as measured by under-five mortality. We argue that the type of revenue available to governments in petroleum-rich countries reduces their incentive to improve child health. Whereas the type of revenue available to governments in petroleum-poor countries encourages policies designed to improve child health. In order to test that line of argument we employ a panel of 167 countries (all countries with populations above 250,000) for the years 1961-2011. We find robust evidence that petroleum-poor countries outperform petroleum-rich countries when it comes to reducing under-five mortality. This suggests that governments in oil abundant countries often fail to effectively use the resource windfall at their disposal to improve child health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Infant and under-five mortality in Afghanistan: current estimates and limitations

PubMed Central

Becker, Stan; Hansen, Peter M; Kumar, Dhirendra; Kumar, Binay; Niayesh, Haseebullah; Peters, David H; Burnham, Gilbert

2010-01-01

Abstract Objective To examine historical estimates of infant and under-five mortality in Afghanistan, provide estimates for rural areas from current population-based data, and discuss the methodological challenges that undermine data quality and hinder retrospective estimations of mortality. Methods Indirect methods of estimation were used to calculate infant and under-five mortality from a household survey conducted in 2006. Sex-specific differences in underreporting of births and deaths were examined and sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the effect of underreporting on infant and under-five mortality. Findings For 2004, rural unadjusted infant and under-five mortality rates were estimated to be 129 and 191 deaths per 1000 live births, respectively, with some evidence indicating underreporting of female deaths. If adjustment for underreporting is made (i.e. by assuming 50% of the unreported girls are dead), mortality estimates go up to 140 and 209, respectively. Conclusion Commonly used estimates of infant and under-five mortality in Afghanistan are outdated; they do not reflect changes that have occurred in the past 15 years or recent intensive investments in health services development, such as the implementation of the Basic Package of Health Services. The sociocultural aspects of mortality and their effect on the reporting of births and deaths in Afghanistan need to be investigated further. PMID:20680122

Small area clustering of under-five children's mortality and associated factors using geo-additive Bayesian discrete-time survival model in Kersa HDSS, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Dedefo, Melkamu; Oljira, Lemessa; Assefa, Nega

2016-02-01

Child mortality reflects a country's level of socio-economic development and quality of life. In Ethiopia, limited studies were conducted on under-five mortality and almost none of them tried to identify the spatial effect on mortality. Thus, this study explored the small area clustering of under-five mortality and associated factors in Kersa HDSS, Eastern Ethiopia. The study population included all children under the age of five years during the time September, 2008-august 31, 2012 which are registered in Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Kersa HDSS). A flexible Bayesian geo-additive discrete-time survival mixed model was used. Some of the factors that are significantly associated with under-five mortality, with posterior odds ratio and 95% credible intervals, are maternal educational status 1.31(1.13,-1.49), place of delivery 1.016(1.013-1.12), no of live birth at a delivery 0.35(0.23,1.83), low household wealth index 1.26(1.10 1.43) middle level household wealth index 0.95 (0.84 1.07) pre-term duration of pregnancy 1.95(1.27,2.91), post-term duration of pregnancy 0.74(0.60,0.93) and antenatal visit 1.19(1.06, 1.35). Variation was noted in the risk of under-five mortality by the selected small administrative regions (kebeles). This study reveals geographic patterns in rates of under-five mortality in those selected small administrative regions and shows some important determinants of under-five mortality. More importantly, we observed clustering of under-five mortality, which indicates the importance of spatial effects and presentation of this clustering through maps that facilitates visuality and highlights differentials across geographical areas that would, otherwise, be overlooked in traditional data-analytic methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Remaining missed opportunities of child survival in Peru: modelling mortality impact of universal and equitable coverage of proven interventions.

PubMed

Tam, Yvonne; Huicho, Luis; Huayanay-Espinoza, Carlos A; Restrepo-Méndez, María Clara

2016-10-04

Peru has made great improvements in reducing stunting and child mortality in the past decade, and has reached the Millennium Development Goals 1 and 4. The remaining challenges or missed opportunities for child survival needs to be identified and quantified, in order to guide the next steps to further improve child survival in Peru. We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to project the mortality impact of proven interventions reaching every women and child in need, and the mortality impact of eliminating inequalities in coverage distribution between wealth quintiles and urban-rural residence. Our analyses quantified the remaining missed opportunities in Peru, where prioritizing scale-up of facility-based case management for all small and sick babies will be most effective in mortality reduction, compared to other evidenced-based interventions that prevent maternal and child deaths. Eliminating coverage disparities between the poorest quintiles and the richest will reduce under-five and neonatal mortality by 22.0 and 40.6 %, while eliminating coverage disparities between those living in rural and urban areas will reduce under-five and neonatal mortality by 29.3 and 45.2 %. This projected neonatal mortality reduction achieved by eliminating coverage disparities is almost comparable to that already achieved by Peru over the past decade. Although Peru has made great strides in improving child survival, further improvement in child health, especially in newborn health can be achieved if there is universal and equitable coverage of proven, quality health facility-based interventions. The magnitude of reduction in mortality will be similar to what has been achieved in the past decade. Strengthening health system to identify, understand, and direct resources to the poor and rural areas will ensure that Peru achieve the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.

Income and child mortality in developing countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

O'Hare, Bernadette; Makuta, Innocent; Chiwaula, Levison; Bar-Zeev, Naor

2013-10-01

We aimed to quantify the relationship between national income and infant and under-five mortality in developing countries. We conducted a systematic literature search of studies that examined the relationship between income and child mortality (infant and/or under-five mortality) and meta-analysed their results. Developing countries. Child mortality (infant and /or under-five mortality). The systematic literature search identified 24 studies, which produced 38 estimates that examined the impact of income on the mortality rates. Using meta-analysis, we produced pooled estimates of the relationship between income and mortality. The pooled estimate of the relationship between income and infant mortality before adjusting for covariates is -0.95 (95% CI -1.34 to -0.57) and that for under-five mortality is -0.45 (95% CI -0.79 to -0.11). After adjusting for covariates, pooled estimate of the relationship between income and infant mortality is -0.33 (-0.39 to -0.26) while the estimate for under-five mortality is -0.28 (-0.37 to -0.19). If a country has an infant mortality of 50 per 1000 live births and the gross domestic product per capita purchasing power parity increases by 10%, the infant mortality will decrease to 45 per 1000 live births. Income is an important determinant of child survival and this work provides a pooled estimate for the relationship.

Determinants of under-five mortality in rural and urban Kenya.

PubMed

Ettarh, R R; Kimani, J

2012-01-01

The disparity in under-five year-old mortality rates between rural and urban areas in Kenya (also reported in other in sub-Saharan African countries), is a critical national concern. The objective of this study was to investigate the influence of geographical location and maternal factors on the likelihood of mortality among under-five children in rural and urban areas in Kenya. Data from the 2008-2009 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey were used to determine mortality among under-five children (n=16,162) in rural and urban areas in the 5 years preceding the survey. Multivariate analysis was used to compare the influence of key risk factors in rural and urban areas. Overall, the likelihood of death among under-five children in the rural areas was significantly higher than that in the urban areas (p<0.05). Household poverty was a key predictor for mortality in the rural areas, but the influence of breastfeeding was similar in the two areas. The likelihood of under-five mortality was significantly higher in the rural areas of Coast, Nyanza and Western Provinces than in Central Province. The study shows that the determinants of under-five mortality differ in rural and urban areas in Kenya. Innovative and targeted strategies are required to address rural poverty and province-specific sociocultural factors in order to improve child survival in rural Kenya.

Health policy for sickle cell disease in Africa: experience from Tanzania on interventions to reduce under-five mortality.

PubMed

Makani, Julie; Soka, Deogratias; Rwezaula, Stella; Krag, Marlene; Mghamba, Janneth; Ramaiya, Kaushik; Cox, Sharon E; Grosse, Scott D

2015-02-01

Tanzania has made considerable progress towards reducing childhood mortality, achieving a 57% decrease between 1980 and 2011. This epidemiological transition will cause a reduction in the contribution of infectious diseases to childhood mortality and increase in contribution from non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Haemoglobinopathies are amongst the most common childhood NCDs, with sickle cell disease (SCD) being the commonest haemoglobinopathy in Africa. In Tanzania, 10,313 children with SCD under 5 years of age (U5) are estimated to die every year, contributing an estimated 7% of overall deaths in U5 children. Key policies that governments in Africa are able to implement would reduce mortality in SCD, focusing on newborn screening and comprehensive SCD care programmes. Such programmes would ensure that interventions such as prevention of infections using penicillin plus prompt diagnosis and treatment of complications are provided to all individuals with SCD. © 2014 The Authors. Tropical Medicine & International Health Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effect of Governance Indicators on Under-Five Mortality in OECD Nations: Generalized Method of Moments.

PubMed

Emamgholipour, Sara; Asemane, Zahra

2016-01-01

Today, it is recognized that factors other than health services are involved in health improvement and decreased inequality so identifying them is the main concern of policy makers and health authorities. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of governance indicators on health outcomes. A panel data study was conducted to investigate the effect of governance indicators on child mortality rate in 27 OECD countries from 1996 to 2012 using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) model and EVIEWS.8 software. According to the results obtained, under-five mortality rate was significantly related to all of the research variables (p < 0.05). One percent increase in under-five mortality in the previous period resulted in a 0.83% increase in the mortality rate in the next period, and a 1% increase in total fertility rate, increased the under-five mortality rate by 0.09%. In addition, a 1% increase in GDP per capita decreased the under-five mortality rate by 0.07%, and a 1% improvement in control of corruption and rule of law indicators decreased child mortality rate by 0.05 and 0.08%, respectively. Furthermore, 1% increase in public health expenditure per capita resulted in a 0.03% decrease in under-five mortality rate. The results of the study suggest that considering control variables, including GDP per capita, public health expenditure per capita, total fertility rate, and improvement of governance indicators (control of corruption and rule of law) would decrease the child mortality rate.

Improving access to child health services at the community level in Zambia: a country case study on progress in child survival, 2000–2013

PubMed Central

Kipp, Aaron M; Maimbolwa, Margaret; Brault, Marie A; Kalesha-Masumbu, Penelope; Katepa-Bwalya, Mary; Habimana, Phanuel; Vermund, Sten H; Mwinga, Kasonde; Haley, Connie A

2017-01-01

Abstract Reductions in under-five mortality in Africa have not been sufficient to meet the Millennium Development Goal #4 (MDG#4) of reducing under-five mortality by two-thirds by 2015. Nevertheless, 12 African countries have met MDG#4. We undertook a four country study to examine barriers and facilitators of child survival prior to 2015, seeking to better understand variability in success across countries. The current analysis presents indicator, national document, and qualitative data from key informants and community women describing the factors that have enabled Zambia to successfully reduce under-five mortality over the last 15 years and achieve MDG#4. Results identified a Zambian national commitment to ongoing reform of national health strategic plans and efforts to ensure universal access to effective maternal, neonatal and child health (MNCH) interventions, creating an environment that has promoted child health. Zambia has also focused on bringing health services as close to the family as possible through specific community health strategies. This includes actively involving community health workers to provide health education, basic MNCH services, and linking women to health facilities, while supplementing community and health facility work with twice-yearly Child Health Weeks. External partners have contributed greatly to Zambia’s MNCH services, and their relationships with the government are generally positive. As government funding increases to sustain MNCH services, national health strategies/plans are being used to specify how partners can fill gaps in resources. Zambia’s continuing MNCH challenges include basic transportation, access-to-care, workforce shortages, and financing limitations. We highlight policies, programs, and implementation that facilitated reductions in under-five mortality in Zambia. These findings may inform how other countries in the African Region can increase progress in child survival in the post-MDG period. PMID:28453711

Comparing progress toward the millennium development goal for under-five mortality in León and Cuatro Santos, Nicaragua, 1990–2008

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Social inequality in child survival hampers the achievement of Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4). Monitoring under-five mortality in different social strata may contribute to public health policies that strive to reduce social inequalities. This population-based study examines the trends, causes, and social inequality of mortality before the age of five years in rural and urban areas in Nicaragua. Methods The study was conducted in one rural (Cuatro Santos) and one urban/rural area (León) based on data from Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems. We analyzed live births from 1990 to 2005 in the urban/rural area and from 1990 to 2008 in the rural area. The annual average rate reduction (AARR) and social under-five mortality inequality were calculated using the education level of the mother as a proxy for socio-economic position. Causes of child death were based on systematic interviews (verbal autopsy). Results Under-five mortality in all areas is declining at a rate sufficient to achieve MDG4 by 2015. Urban León showed greater reduction (AARR = 8.5%) in mortality and inequality than rural León (AARR = 4.5%) or Cuatro Santos (AARR = 5.4%). Social inequality in mortality had increased in rural León and no improvement in survival was observed among mothers who had not completed primary school. However, the poor and remote rural area Cuatro Santos was on track to reach MDG4 with equitable child survival. Most of the deaths in both areas were due to neonatal conditions and infectious diseases. Conclusions All rural and urban areas in Nicaragua included in this study were on track to reach MDG4, but social stratification in child survival showed different patterns; unfavorable patterns with increasing inequity in the peri-urban rural zone and a more equitable development in the urban as well as the poor and remote rural area. An equitable progress in child survival may also be accelerated in very poor settings. PMID:24428933

Threshold Levels of Infant and Under-Five Mortality for Crossover between Life Expectancies at Ages Zero, One and Five in India: A Decomposition Analysis.

PubMed

Dubey, Manisha; Ram, Usha; Ram, Faujdar

2015-01-01

Under the prevailing conditions of imbalanced life table and historic gender discrimination in India, our study examines crossover between life expectancies at ages zero, one and five years for India and quantifies the relative share of infant and under-five mortality towards this crossover. We estimate threshold levels of infant and under-five mortality required for crossover using age specific death rates during 1981-2009 for 16 Indian states by sex (comprising of India's 90% population in 2011). Kitagawa decomposition equations were used to analyse relative share of infant and under-five mortality towards crossover. India experienced crossover between life expectancies at ages zero and five in 2004 for menand in 2009 for women; eleven and nine Indian states have experienced this crossover for men and women, respectively. Men usually experienced crossover four years earlier than the women. Improvements in mortality below ages five have mostly contributed towards this crossover. Life expectancy at age one exceeds that at age zero for both men and women in India except for Kerala (the only state to experience this crossover in 2000 for men and 1999 for women). For India, using life expectancy at age zero and under-five mortality rate together may be more meaningful to measure overall health of its people until the crossover. Delayed crossover for women, despite higher life expectancy at birth than for men reiterates that Indian women are still disadvantaged and hence use of life expectancies at ages zero, one and five become important for India. Greater programmatic efforts to control leading causes of death during the first month and 1-59 months in high child mortality areas can help India to attain this crossover early.

Neonatal health in Nepal: analysis of absolute and relative inequalities and impact of current efforts to reduce neonatal mortality

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Nepal has made substantial progress in reducing under-five mortality and is on track to achieve Millennium Development Goal 4, but advances in neonatal health are less encouraging. The objectives of this study were to assess relative and absolute inequalities in neonatal mortality over time, and to review experience with major programs to promote neonatal health. Methods Using four nationally representative surveys conducted in 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011, we calculated neonatal mortality rates for Nepal and for population groups based on child sex, geographical and socio-economic variables using a true cohort log probability approach. Inequalities based on different variables and years were assessed using rate differences (rd) and rate ratios (rr); time trends in neonatal mortality were measured using the annual rate of reduction. Through literature searches and expert consultation, information on Nepalese policies and programs implemented since 1990 and directly or indirectly attempting to reduce neonatal mortality was compiled. Data on timeline, coverage and effectiveness were extracted for major programs. Results The annual rate of reduction for neonatal mortality between 1996 and 2011 (2.8 percent per annum) greatly lags behind the achievements in under-five and infant mortality, and varies across population groups. For the year 2011, stark absolute and relative inequalities in neonatal mortality exist in relation to wealth status (rd = 21.4, rr = 2.2); these are less pronounced for other measures of socio-economic status, child sex and urban–rural residence, ecological and development region. Among many efforts to promote child and maternal health, three established programs and two pilot programs emerged as particularly relevant to reducing neonatal mortality. While these were designed based on national and international evidence, information about coverage of different population groups and effectiveness is limited. Conclusion Neonatal mortality varies greatly by socio-demographic variables. This study clearly shows that much remains to be achieved in terms of reducing neonatal mortality across different socio-economic, ethnic and geographical population groups in Nepal. In moving forward it will be important to scale up programs of proven effectiveness, conduct in-depth evaluation of promising new approaches, target unreached and hard-to-reach populations, and maximize use of financial and personnel resources through integration across programs. PMID:24373558

Neonatal health in Nepal: analysis of absolute and relative inequalities and impact of current efforts to reduce neonatal mortality.

PubMed

Paudel, Deepak; Shrestha, Ishwar B; Siebeck, Matthias; Rehfuess, Eva A

2013-12-28

Nepal has made substantial progress in reducing under-five mortality and is on track to achieve Millennium Development Goal 4, but advances in neonatal health are less encouraging. The objectives of this study were to assess relative and absolute inequalities in neonatal mortality over time, and to review experience with major programs to promote neonatal health. Using four nationally representative surveys conducted in 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011, we calculated neonatal mortality rates for Nepal and for population groups based on child sex, geographical and socio-economic variables using a true cohort log probability approach. Inequalities based on different variables and years were assessed using rate differences (rd) and rate ratios (rr); time trends in neonatal mortality were measured using the annual rate of reduction. Through literature searches and expert consultation, information on Nepalese policies and programs implemented since 1990 and directly or indirectly attempting to reduce neonatal mortality was compiled. Data on timeline, coverage and effectiveness were extracted for major programs. The annual rate of reduction for neonatal mortality between 1996 and 2011 (2.8 percent per annum) greatly lags behind the achievements in under-five and infant mortality, and varies across population groups. For the year 2011, stark absolute and relative inequalities in neonatal mortality exist in relation to wealth status (rd = 21.4, rr = 2.2); these are less pronounced for other measures of socio-economic status, child sex and urban-rural residence, ecological and development region. Among many efforts to promote child and maternal health, three established programs and two pilot programs emerged as particularly relevant to reducing neonatal mortality. While these were designed based on national and international evidence, information about coverage of different population groups and effectiveness is limited. Neonatal mortality varies greatly by socio-demographic variables. This study clearly shows that much remains to be achieved in terms of reducing neonatal mortality across different socio-economic, ethnic and geographical population groups in Nepal. In moving forward it will be important to scale up programs of proven effectiveness, conduct in-depth evaluation of promising new approaches, target unreached and hard-to-reach populations, and maximize use of financial and personnel resources through integration across programs.

Spatial variations and determinants of infant and under-five mortality in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Gruebner, Oliver; Khan, Mmh; Burkart, Katrin; Lautenbach, Sven; Lakes, Tobia; Krämer, Alexander; Subramanian, S V; Galea, Sandro

2017-09-01

Reducing child mortality is a Sustainable Development Goal yet to be achieved by many low-income countries. We applied a subnational and spatial approach based on publicly available datasets and identified permanent insolvency, urbanicity, and malaria endemicity as factors associated with child mortality. We further detected spatial clusters in the east of Bangladesh and noted Sylhet and Jamalpur as those districts that need immediate attention to reduce child mortality. Our approach is transferable to other regions in comparable settings worldwide and may guide future studies to identify subnational regions in need for public health attention. Our study adds to our understanding where we may intervene to more effectively improve health, particularly among disadvantaged populations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

State of newborn health in India.

PubMed

Sankar, M J; Neogi, S B; Sharma, J; Chauhan, M; Srivastava, R; Prabhakar, P K; Khera, A; Kumar, R; Zodpey, S; Paul, V K

2016-12-01

About 0.75 million neonates die every year in India, the highest for any country in the world. The neonatal mortality rate (NMR) declined from 52 per 1000 live births in 1990 to 28 per 1000 live births in 2013, but the rate of decline has been slow and lags behind that of infant and under-five child mortality rates. The slower decline has led to increasing contribution of neonatal mortality to infant and under-five mortality. Among neonatal deaths, the rate of decline in early neonatal mortality rate (ENMR) is much lower than that of late NMR. The high level and slow decline in early NMR are also reflected in a high and stagnant perinatal mortality rate. The rate of decline in NMR, and to an extent ENMR, has accelerated with the introduction of National Rural Health Mission in mid-2005. Almost all states have witnessed this phenomenon, but there is still a huge disparity in NMR between and even within the states. The disparity is further compounded by rural-urban, poor-rich and gender differentials. There is an interplay of different demographic, educational, socioeconomic, biological and care-seeking factors, which are responsible for the differentials and the high burden of neonatal mortality. Addressing inequity in India is an important cross-cutting action that will reduce newborn mortality.

State of newborn health in India

PubMed Central

Sankar, M J; Neogi, S B; Sharma, J; Chauhan, M; Srivastava, R; Prabhakar, P K; Khera, A; Kumar, R; Zodpey, S; Paul, V K

2016-01-01

About 0.75 million neonates die every year in India, the highest for any country in the world. The neonatal mortality rate (NMR) declined from 52 per 1000 live births in 1990 to 28 per 1000 live births in 2013, but the rate of decline has been slow and lags behind that of infant and under-five child mortality rates. The slower decline has led to increasing contribution of neonatal mortality to infant and under-five mortality. Among neonatal deaths, the rate of decline in early neonatal mortality rate (ENMR) is much lower than that of late NMR. The high level and slow decline in early NMR are also reflected in a high and stagnant perinatal mortality rate. The rate of decline in NMR, and to an extent ENMR, has accelerated with the introduction of National Rural Health Mission in mid-2005. Almost all states have witnessed this phenomenon, but there is still a huge disparity in NMR between and even within the states. The disparity is further compounded by rural–urban, poor–rich and gender differentials. There is an interplay of different demographic, educational, socioeconomic, biological and care-seeking factors, which are responsible for the differentials and the high burden of neonatal mortality. Addressing inequity in India is an important cross-cutting action that will reduce newborn mortality. PMID:27924104

Achieving the Millennium Development Goal for Under-five Mortality in Bangladesh: Current Status and Lessons for Issues and Challenges for Further Improvements

PubMed Central

Nury, Abu Taher Md. Sanaullah; Hossain, Md. Delwar

2011-01-01

The study assessed the achievements in, critically reviewed the relevant issues of, and put forward recommendations for achieving the target of the Millennium Development Goal relating to mortality of children aged less than five years (under-five mortality) in Bangladesh within 2015. To materialize the study objectives, a thorough literature review was done. Mortality of under-five children and infants decreased respectively to 65 from 151 and to 52 from 94 per 1,000 livebirths during 1990-2006. The immunization coverage increased from 54% to 81.9% during the same period. The projection shows that Bangladesh will achieve targeted reduction in under-five mortality and infant mortality within the time limit, except immunization coverage. Neonatal mortality contributed to the majority of childhood deaths. Contribution of neonatal mortality to child mortality was the highest. There were remarkable differences in child mortality by sex, division, and residence. To progress further for achieving the target of MDG relating to child mortality, some issues, such as lower use of maternal healthcare services, hazardous environmental effects on childhood illness, high malnutrition among children, shorter duration of exclusive breastfeeding practices, various child injuries leading to death, low healthcare-use of children, probable future threat of financial shortage, and strategies lacking area-wise focus on child mortality, need to be considered. Without these, the achievement of MDG relating to child mortality may not be possible within 2015. PMID:21608418

Neonatal, infant and under-five mortalities in Nigeria: An examination of trends and drivers (2003-2013).

PubMed

Morakinyo, Oyewale Mayowa; Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis

2017-01-01

Neonatal (NMR), infant (IMR) and under-five (U5M) mortality rates remain high in Nigeria. Evidence-based knowledge of trends and drivers of child mortality will aid proper interventions needed to combat the menace. Therefore, this study assessed the trends and drivers of NMR, IMR, and U5M over a decade in Nigeria. A nationally representative data from three consecutive Nigeria Demographic and Household Surveys (NDHS) was used. A total of 66,158 live births within the five years preceding the 2003 (6029), 2008 (28647) and 2013 (31482) NDHS were included in the analyses. NMR was computed using proportions while IMR and U5 were computed using life table techniques embedded in Stata version 12. Probit regression model and its associated marginal effects were used to identify the predisposing factors to NMR, IMR, and U5M. The NMR, IMR, and U5M per 1000 live births in 2003, 2008 and 2013 were 52, 41, 39; 100, 75, 69; and 201, 157, 128 respectively. The NMR, IMR, and U5M were consistently lower among children whose mothers were younger, living in rural areas and from richer households. Generally, the probability of neonate death in 2003, 2008 and 2013 were 0.049, 0.039 and 0.038 respectively, the probability of infant death was 0.093, 0.071 and 0.064 while the probability of under-five death was 0.140, 0.112 and 0.092 for the respective survey years. While adjusting for other variables, the likelihood of infant and under-five deaths was significantly reduced across the survey years. Maternal age, mothers' education, place of residence, child's sex, birth interval, weight at birth, skill of birth attendant, delivery by caesarean operation or not significantly influenced NMR, IMR, and U5M. The NMR, IMR, and U5M in Nigeria reduced over the studied period. Multi-sectoral interventions targeted towards the identified drivers should be instituted to improve child survival.

Mortality trends among refugees in Honduras, 1984-1987.

PubMed

Desenclos, J C; Michel, D; Tholly, F; Magdi, I; Pecoul, B; Desve, G

1990-06-01

Mortality data collected from 1984 to 1987 through a routine standardized health information system in the five main refugee populations of Honduras were reviewed. The direct standardized mean annual death rate for all refugees was 5.5 per 1000 population (Honduras population as reference; Honduras mortality rate: 10.1 per 1000). Mortality decreased or remained stable among Salvadoran refugees from 1984 to 1987, but increased among Nicaraguan refugees after 1985. The highest neonatal (56.1 per 1000 livebirths), infant (126.1 per 1000 livebirths) and under-five-year-olds (35.7 per 1000 child less than five years of age) mortality rates were observed in the two Nicaraguan camps. These two camps had the highest rate of newly arriving refugees. Deaths in infants and under-five-year-olds accounted for 42 and 54.1% of all deaths respectively. Of all deaths under five years of age, respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases and measles accounted for 21.4%, 22.1% and 4.7%, respectively. Mortality rates, particularly among under-five-year-olds and infants increased when the rate of newly arriving refugees was higher. The importance of adapted health surveillance in refugee settlements is discussed.

Impact of Artemisinin-Based Combination Therapy and Insecticide-Treated Nets on Malaria Burden in Zanzibar

PubMed Central

Bhattarai, Achuyt; Ali, Abdullah S; Kachur, S. Patrick; Mårtensson, Andreas; Abbas, Ali K; Khatib, Rashid; Al-mafazy, Abdul-wahiyd; Ramsan, Mahdi; Rotllant, Guida; Gerstenmaier, Jan F; Molteni, Fabrizio; Abdulla, Salim; Montgomery, Scott M; Kaneko, Akira; Björkman, Anders

2007-01-01

Background The Roll Back Malaria strategy recommends a combination of interventions for malaria control. Zanzibar implemented artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) for uncomplicated malaria in late 2003 and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) from early 2006. ACT is provided free of charge to all malaria patients, while LLINs are distributed free to children under age 5 y (“under five”) and pregnant women. We investigated temporal trends in Plasmodium falciparum prevalence and malaria-related health parameters following the implementation of these two malaria control interventions in Zanzibar. Methods and Findings Cross-sectional clinical and parasitological surveys in children under the age of 14 y were conducted in North A District in May 2003, 2005, and 2006. Survey data were analyzed in a logistic regression model and adjusted for complex sampling design and potential confounders. Records from all 13 public health facilities in North A District were analyzed for malaria-related outpatient visits and admissions. Mortality and demographic data were obtained from District Commissioner's Office. P. falciparum prevalence decreased in children under five between 2003 and 2006; using 2003 as the reference year, odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were, for 2005, 0.55 (0.28–1.08), and for 2006, 0.03 (0.00–0.27); p for trend < 0.001. Between 2002 and 2005 crude under-five, infant (under age 1 y), and child (aged 1–4 y) mortality decreased by 52%, 33%, and 71%, respectively. Similarly, malaria-related admissions, blood transfusions, and malaria-attributed mortality decreased significantly by 77%, 67% and 75%, respectively, between 2002 and 2005 in children under five. Climatic conditions favorable for malaria transmission persisted throughout the observational period. Conclusions Following deployment of ACT in Zanzibar 2003, malaria-associated morbidity and mortality decreased dramatically within two years. Additional distribution of LLINs in early 2006 resulted in a 10-fold reduction of malaria parasite prevalence. The results indicate that the Millennium Development Goals of reducing mortality in children under five and alleviating the burden of malaria are achievable in tropical Africa with high coverage of combined malaria control interventions. PMID:17988171

Threshold Levels of Infant and Under-Five Mortality for Crossover between Life Expectancies at Ages Zero, One and Five in India: A Decomposition Analysis

PubMed Central

Dubey, Manisha

2015-01-01

Objectives Under the prevailing conditions of imbalanced life table and historic gender discrimination in India, our study examines crossover between life expectancies at ages zero, one and five years for India and quantifies the relative share of infant and under-five mortality towards this crossover. Methods We estimate threshold levels of infant and under-five mortality required for crossover using age specific death rates during 1981–2009 for 16 Indian states by sex (comprising of India’s 90% population in 2011). Kitagawa decomposition equations were used to analyse relative share of infant and under-five mortality towards crossover. Findings India experienced crossover between life expectancies at ages zero and five in 2004 for menand in 2009 for women; eleven and nine Indian states have experienced this crossover for men and women, respectively. Men usually experienced crossover four years earlier than the women. Improvements in mortality below ages five have mostly contributed towards this crossover. Life expectancy at age one exceeds that at age zero for both men and women in India except for Kerala (the only state to experience this crossover in 2000 for men and 1999 for women). Conclusions For India, using life expectancy at age zero and under-five mortality rate together may be more meaningful to measure overall health of its people until the crossover. Delayed crossover for women, despite higher life expectancy at birth than for men reiterates that Indian women are still disadvantaged and hence use of life expectancies at ages zero, one and five become important for India. Greater programmatic efforts to control leading causes of death during the first month and 1–59 months in high child mortality areas can help India to attain this crossover early. PMID:26683617

Reducing the Child Death Rate. KIDS COUNT Indicator Brief

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shore, Rima; Shore, Barbara

2009-01-01

In the 20th century's final decades, advances in the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases sharply reduced the child death rate. Despite this progress, the child death rate in the U.S. remains higher than in many other wealthy nations. The under-five mortality rate in the U.S. is almost three times higher than that of Iceland and Sweden…

Estimating under-five mortality in space and time in a developing world context.

PubMed

Wakefield, Jon; Fuglstad, Geir-Arne; Riebler, Andrea; Godwin, Jessica; Wilson, Katie; Clark, Samuel J

2018-01-01

Accurate estimates of the under-five mortality rate in a developing world context are a key barometer of the health of a nation. This paper describes a new model to analyze survey data on mortality in this context. We are interested in both spatial and temporal description, that is wishing to estimate under-five mortality rate across regions and years and to investigate the association between the under-five mortality rate and spatially varying covariate surfaces. We illustrate the methodology by producing yearly estimates for subnational areas in Kenya over the period 1980-2014 using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, which use stratified cluster sampling. We use a binomial likelihood with fixed effects for the urban/rural strata and random effects for the clustering to account for the complex survey design. Smoothing is carried out using Bayesian hierarchical models with continuous spatial and temporally discrete components. A key component of the model is an offset to adjust for bias due to the effects of HIV epidemics. Substantively, there has been a sharp decline in Kenya in the under-five mortality rate in the period 1980-2014, but large variability in estimated subnational rates remains. A priority for future research is understanding this variability. In exploratory work, we examine whether a variety of spatial covariate surfaces can explain the variability in under-five mortality rate. Temperature, precipitation, a measure of malaria infection prevalence, and a measure of nearness to cities were candidates for inclusion in the covariate model, but the interplay between space, time, and covariates is complex.

Implementation of the Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses strategy: challenges and recommendations in Botswana.

PubMed

Mupara, Lucia U; Lubbe, Johanna C

2016-01-01

Under-five mortality has been a major public health challenge from time immemorial. In response to this challenge, the World Health Organization and the United Nations Children's Fund developed the Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses (IMCI) strategy and presented it to the whole world as a key approach to reduce child morbidity and mortality. Botswana started to implement the IMCI strategy in 1998. Reductions in the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) have been documented, although the reduction is not on par with the expected Millennium Development Goal 4 predictions. A quantitative study was done to identify the problems IMCI implementers face when tending children under 5 years in the Gaborone Health District of Botswana. The study population was made up of all the IMCI-trained and registered nurses, and systematic sampling was used to randomly select study participants. Questionnaires were used to collect data. The study findings indicated challenges related to low training coverage, health systems, and the unique features of the IMCI strategy. The comprehensive implementation of the IMCI strategy has the potential to significantly influence the U5MR in Botswana.

Fine and Gray competing risk regression model to study the cause-specific under-five child mortality in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Mohammad, Khandoker Akib; Fatima-Tuz-Zahura, Most; Bari, Wasimul

2017-01-28

The cause-specific under-five mortality of Bangladesh has been studied by fitting cumulative incidence function (CIF) based Fine and Gray competing risk regression model (1999). For the purpose of analysis, Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS), 2011 data set was used. Three types of mode of mortality for the under-five children are considered. These are disease, non-disease and other causes. Product-Limit survival probabilities for the under-five child mortality with log-rank test were used to select a set of covariates for the regression model. The covariates found to have significant association in bivariate analysis were only considered in the regression analysis. Potential determinants of under-five child mortality due to disease is size of child at birth, while gender of child, NGO (non-government organization) membership of mother, mother's education level, and size of child at birth are due to non-disease and age of mother at birth, NGO membership of mother, and mother's education level are for the mortality due to other causes. Female participation in the education programs needs to be increased because of the improvement of child health and government should arrange family and social awareness programs as well as health related programs for women so that they are aware of their child health.

Impact of a critical health workforce shortage on child health in Zimbabwe: a country case study on progress in child survival, 2000–2013

PubMed Central

Haley, Connie A; Vermund, Sten H; Moyo, Precious; Madzima, Bernard; Kanyowa, Trevor; Desta, Teshome; Mwinga, Kasonde; Brault, Marie A

2017-01-01

Abstract Despite notable progress reducing global under-five mortality rates, insufficient progress in most sub-Saharan African nations has prevented the achievement of Millennium Development Goal four (MDG#4) to reduce under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Country-level assessments of factors underlying why some African countries have not been able to achieve MDG#4 have not been published. Zimbabwe was included in a four-country study examining barriers and facilitators of under-five survival between 2000 and 2013 due to its comparatively slow progress towards MDG#4. A review of national health policy and strategy documents and analysis of qualitative data identified Zimbabwe’s critical shortage of health workers and diminished opportunities for professional training and education as an overarching challenge. Moreover, this insufficient health workforce severely limited the availability, quality, and utilization of life-saving health services for pregnant women and children during the study period. The impact of these challenges was most evident in Zimbabwe’s persistently high neonatal mortality rate, and was likely compounded by policy gaps failing to authorize midwives to deliver life-saving interventions and to ensure health staff make home post-natal care visits soon after birth. Similarly, the lack of a national policy authorizing lower-level cadres of health workers to provide community-based treatment of pneumonia contributed to low coverage of this effective intervention and high child mortality. Zimbabwe has recently begun to address these challenges through comprehensive policies and strategies targeting improved recruitment and retention of experienced senior providers and by shifting responsibility of basic maternal, neonatal and child health services to lower-level cadres and community health workers that require less training, are geographically broadly distributed, and are more cost-effective, however the impact of these interventions could not be assessed within the scope and timeframe of the current study. PMID:28064212

The importance of intersectoral factors in promoting equity-oriented universal health coverage: a multilevel analysis of social determinants affecting neonatal infant and under-five mortality in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Huda, Tanvir M; Tahsina, Tazeen; El Arifeen, Shams; Dibley, Michael J

2016-01-01

Health is multidimensional and affected by a wide range of factors, many of which are outside the health sector. To improve population health and reduce health inequality, it is important that we take into account the complex interactions among social, environmental, behavioural, and biological factors and design our health interventions accordingly. This study examines mortality differentials in children of different age groups by key social determinants of health (SDH) including parental education and employment, mother's level of autonomy, age, asset index, living arrangements (utilities), and other geographical contextual factors (area of residence, road conditions). We used data from the two rounds of Bangladesh Health and Demographic Survey, a nationally representative sample survey of the population residing in Bangladesh. Multilevel logistic models were used to study the impact of SDH on child mortality. The study found that the mother's age, the education of both parents, the mother's autonomy to take decisions about matters linked to the health of her child, the household socio-economic conditions, the geographical region of residence, and the condition of the roads were significantly associated with higher risks of neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality in Bangladesh. The study findings suggest there are complex relationships among different SDH. Thus larger intersectoral actions will be needed to reduce disparities in child health and mortality and achieve meaningful progress towards equity-oriented universal health coverage.

Hand washing with soap and WASH educational intervention reduces under-five childhood diarrhoea incidence in Jigjiga District, Eastern Ethiopia: A community-based cluster randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Hashi, Abdiwahab; Kumie, Abera; Gasana, Janvier

2017-06-01

Despite the tremendous achievement in reducing child mortality and morbidity in the last two decades, diarrhoea is still a major cause of morbidity and mortality among children in many developing countries, including Ethiopia. Hand washing with soap promotion, water quality improvements and improvements in excreta disposal significantly reduces diarrhoeal diseases. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of hand washing with soap and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) educational Intervention on the incidence of under-five children diarrhoea. A community-based cluster randomized controlled trial was conducted in 24 clusters (sub-Kebelles) in Jigjiga district, Somali region, Eastern Ethiopia from February 1 to July 30, 2015. The trial compared incidence of diarrhoea among under-five children whose primary caretakers receive hand washing with soap and water, sanitation, hygiene educational messages with control households. Generalized estimating equation with a log link function Poisson distribution family was used to compute adjusted incidence rate ratio and the corresponding 95% confidence interval. The results of this study show that the longitudinal adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) of diarrhoeal diseases comparing interventional and control households was 0.65 (95% CI 0.57, 0.73) suggesting an overall diarrhoeal diseases reduction of 35%. The results are similar to other trials of WASH educational interventions and hand washing with soap. In conclusion, hand washing with soap practice during critical times and WASH educational messages reduces childhood diarrhoea in the rural pastoralist area.

Essential interventions for child health

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Child health is a growing concern at the global level, as infectious diseases and preventable conditions claim hundreds of lives of children under the age of five in low-income countries. Approximately 7.6 million children under five years of age died in 2011, calculating to about 19 000 children each day and almost 800 every hour. About 80 percent of the world’s under-five deaths in 2011 occurred in only 25 countries, and about half in only five countries: India, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan and China. The implications and burden of such statistics are huge and will have dire consequences if they are not corrected promptly. This paper reviews essential interventions for improving child health, which if implemented properly and according to guidelines have been found to improve child health outcomes, as well as reduce morbidity and mortality rates. It also includes caregivers and delivery strategies for each intervention. Interventions that have been associated with a decrease in mortality and disease rates include exclusive breastfeeding, complementary feeding strategies, routine immunizations and vaccinations for children, preventative zinc supplementation in children, and vitamin A supplementation in vitamin A deficient populations. PMID:25177974

The Effect of Empowerment and Self-Determination on Health Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garces-Ozanne, Arlene; Kalu, Edna Ikechi; Audas, Richard

2016-01-01

There remains a persistent gap in health outcomes between wealthy and poor countries. Basic measures such as life expectancy and infant and under-five mortality remain divergent, with preventable deaths being unacceptably high, despite significant efforts to reduce these disparities. We examine the impact of empowerment, measured by Freedom…

Cooking fuel and risk of under-five mortality in 23 Sub-Saharan African countries: a population-based study.

PubMed

Owili, Patrick Opiyo; Muga, Miriam Adoyo; Pan, Wen-Chi; Kuo, Hsien-Wen

2017-06-01

Relationship between cooking fuel and under-five mortality has not been adequately established in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We therefore investigated the association between cooking fuel and risk of under-five mortality in SSA, and further investigated its interaction with smoking. Using the most recent Demographic Health Survey data of 23 SSA countries (n = 783,691), Cox proportional hazard was employed to determine the association between cooking fuel and risk of under-five deaths. The adjusted hazard ratios were 1.21 (95 % CI, 1.10-1.34) and 1.20 (95 % CI, 1.08-1.32) for charcoal and biomass cooking fuel, respectively, compared to clean fuels. There was no positive interaction between biomass cooking fuel and smoking. Use of charcoal and biomass were associated with the risk of under-five mortality in SSA. Disseminating public health information on health risks of cooking fuel and development of relevant public health policies are likely to have a positive impact on a child's survival.

Ethnic differentials in under-five mortality in Nigeria.

PubMed

Adedini, Sunday A; Odimegwu, Clifford; Imasiku, Eunice N S; Ononokpono, Dorothy N

2015-01-01

There are huge regional disparities in under-five mortality in Nigeria. While a region within the country has as high as 222 under-five deaths per 1000 live births, the rate is as low as 89 per 1000 live births in another region. Nigeria is culturally diverse as there are more than 250 identifiable ethnic groups in the country; and various ethnic groups have different sociocultural values and practices which could influence child health outcome. Thus, the main objective of this study was to examine the ethnic differentials in under-five mortality in Nigeria. The study utilized 2008 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) data. We analyzed data from a nationally representative sample drawn from 33,385 women aged 15-49 that had a total of 104,808 live births within 1993-2008. In order to examine ethnic differentials in under-five mortality over a sufficiently long period of time, our analysis considered live births within 15 years preceding the 2008 NDHS. The risks of death in children below age five were estimated using Cox proportional regression analysis. Results were presented as hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The study found substantial differentials in under-five mortality by ethnic affiliations. For instance, risks of death were significantly lower for children of the Yoruba tribes (HR: 0.39, CI: 0.37-0.42, p < 0.001), children of Igbo tribes (HR: 0.58, CI: 0.55-0.61, p < 0.001) and children of the minority ethnic groups (HR: 0.66, CI: 0.64-0.68, p < 0.001), compared to children of the Hausa/Fulani/Kanuri tribes. Besides, practices such as plural marriage, having higher-order births and too close births showed statistical significance for increased risks of under-five mortality (p < 0.05). The findings of this study stress the need to address the ethnic norms and practices that negatively impact on child health and survival among some ethnic groups in Nigeria.

Geographical Inequalities and Social and Environmental Risk Factors for Under-Five Mortality in Ghana in 2000 and 2010: Bayesian Spatial Analysis of Census Data.

PubMed

Arku, Raphael E; Bennett, James E; Castro, Marcia C; Agyeman-Duah, Kofi; Mintah, Samilia E; Ware, James H; Nyarko, Philomena; Spengler, John D; Agyei-Mensah, Samuel; Ezzati, Majid

2016-06-01

Under-five mortality is declining in Ghana and many other countries. Very few studies have measured under-five mortality-and its social and environmental risk factors-at fine spatial resolutions, which is relevant for policy purposes. Our aim was to estimate under-five mortality and its social and environmental risk factors at the district level in Ghana. We used 10% random samples of Ghana's 2000 and 2010 National Population and Housing Censuses. We applied indirect demographic methods and a Bayesian spatial model to the information on total number of children ever born and children surviving to estimate under-five mortality (probability of dying by 5 y of age, 5q0) for each of Ghana's 110 districts. We also used the census data to estimate the distributions of households or persons in each district in terms of fuel used for cooking, sanitation facility, drinking water source, and parental education. Median district 5q0 declined from 99 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2000 to 70 in 2010. The decline ranged from <5% in some northern districts, where 5q0 had been higher in 2000, to >40% in southern districts, where it had been lower in 2000, exacerbating existing inequalities. Primary education increased in men and women, and more households had access to improved water and sanitation and cleaner cooking fuels. Higher use of liquefied petroleum gas for cooking was associated with lower 5q0 in multivariate analysis. Under-five mortality has declined in all of Ghana's districts, but the cross-district inequality in mortality has increased. There is a need for additional data, including on healthcare, and additional environmental and socioeconomic measurements, to understand the reasons for the variations in mortality levels and trends.

Using the Lives Saved Tool to aid country planning in meeting mortality targets: a case study from Mali.

PubMed

Keita, Youssouf; Sangho, Hamadoun; Roberton, Timothy; Vignola, Emilia; Traoré, Mariam; Munos, Melinda

2017-11-07

Mali is one of four countries implementing a National Evaluation Platform (NEP) to build local capacity to answer evaluation questions for maternal, newborn, child health and nutrition (MNCH&N). In 2014-15, NEP-Mali addressed questions about the potential impact of Mali's MNCH&N plans and strategies, and identified priority interventions to achieve targeted mortality reductions. The NEP-Mali team modeled the potential impact of three intervention packages in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) from 2014 to 2023. One projection included the interventions and targets from Mali's ten-year health strategy (PDDSS) for 2014-2023, and two others modeled intervention packages that included scale up of antenatal, intrapartum, and curative interventions, as well as reductions in stunting and wasting. We modeled the change in maternal, newborn and under-five mortality rates under these three projections, as well as the number of lives saved, overall and by intervention. If Mali were to achieve the MNCH&N coverage targets from its health strategy, under-5 mortality would be reduced from 121 per 1000 live births to 93 per 1000, far from the target of 69 deaths per 1000. Projections 1 and 2 produced estimated mortality reductions from 121 deaths per 1000 to 70 and 68 deaths per 1000, respectively. With respect to neonatal mortality, the mortality rate would be reduced from 39 to 32 deaths per 1000 live births under the current health strategy, and to 25 per 1000 under projections 1 and 2. This study revealed that achieving the coverage targets for the MNCH&N interventions in the 2014-23 PDDSS would likely not allow Mali to achieve its mortality targets. The NEP-Mali team was able to identify two packages of MNCH&N interventions (and targets) that achieved under-5 and neonatal mortality rates at, or very near, the PDDSS targets. The Malian Ministry of Health and Public Hygiene is using these results to revise its plans and strategies.

Neonatal, infant and under-five mortalities in Nigeria: An examination of trends and drivers (2003-2013)

PubMed Central

Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis

2017-01-01

Neonatal (NMR), infant (IMR) and under-five (U5M) mortality rates remain high in Nigeria. Evidence-based knowledge of trends and drivers of child mortality will aid proper interventions needed to combat the menace. Therefore, this study assessed the trends and drivers of NMR, IMR, and U5M over a decade in Nigeria. A nationally representative data from three consecutive Nigeria Demographic and Household Surveys (NDHS) was used. A total of 66,158 live births within the five years preceding the 2003 (6029), 2008 (28647) and 2013 (31482) NDHS were included in the analyses. NMR was computed using proportions while IMR and U5 were computed using life table techniques embedded in Stata version 12. Probit regression model and its associated marginal effects were used to identify the predisposing factors to NMR, IMR, and U5M. The NMR, IMR, and U5M per 1000 live births in 2003, 2008 and 2013 were 52, 41, 39; 100, 75, 69; and 201, 157, 128 respectively. The NMR, IMR, and U5M were consistently lower among children whose mothers were younger, living in rural areas and from richer households. Generally, the probability of neonate death in 2003, 2008 and 2013 were 0.049, 0.039 and 0.038 respectively, the probability of infant death was 0.093, 0.071 and 0.064 while the probability of under-five death was 0.140, 0.112 and 0.092 for the respective survey years. While adjusting for other variables, the likelihood of infant and under-five deaths was significantly reduced across the survey years. Maternal age, mothers’ education, place of residence, child’s sex, birth interval, weight at birth, skill of birth attendant, delivery by caesarean operation or not significantly influenced NMR, IMR, and U5M. The NMR, IMR, and U5M in Nigeria reduced over the studied period. Multi-sectoral interventions targeted towards the identified drivers should be instituted to improve child survival. PMID:28793340

Trends and patterns of modern contraceptive use and relationships with high-risk births and child mortality in Burkina Faso.

PubMed

Maïga, Abdoulaye; Hounton, Sennen; Amouzou, Agbessi; Akinyemi, Akanni; Shiferaw, Solomon; Baya, Banza; Bahan, Dalomi; Barros, Aluisio J D; Walker, Neff; Friedman, Howard

2015-01-01

In sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have stressed the importance of spatial heterogeneity analysis in modern contraceptive use and the relationships with high-risk births. This paper aims to analyse the association between modern contraceptive use, distribution of birth risk, and under-five child mortality at both national and regional levels in Burkina Faso. The last three Demographic and Health Surveys - conducted in Burkina Faso in 1998, 2003, and 2010 - enabled descriptions of differentials, trends, and associations between modern contraceptive use, total fertility rates (TFR), and factors associated with high-risk births and under-five child mortality. Multivariate models, adjusted by covariates of cultural and socio-economic background and contact with health system, were used to investigate the relationship between birth risk factors and modern contraceptive prevalence rates (mCPR). Overall, Burkina Faso's modern contraception level remains low (15.4% in 2010), despite significant increases during the last decade. However, there are substantial variations in mCPR by region, and health facility contact was positively associated with mCPR increase. Women's fertility history and cultural and socio-economic background were also significant factors in predicting use of modern contraception. Low modern contraceptive use is associated with higher birth risks and increased child mortality. This association is stronger in the Sahel, Est, and Sud-Ouest regions. Even though all factors in high-risk births were associated with under-five mortality, it should be stressed that short birth spacing ranked as the highest risk in relation to mortality of children. Programmes that target sub-national differentials and leverage women's health system contacts to inform women about family planning opportunities may be effective in improving coverage, quality, and equity of modern contraceptive use. Improving the demand satisfied for modern contraception may result in a reduction in the percentage of women experiencing high-risk births and may also reduce child mortality.

Trends and patterns of modern contraceptive use and relationships with high-risk births and child mortality in Burkina Faso

PubMed Central

Maïga, Abdoulaye; Hounton, Sennen; Amouzou, Agbessi; Akinyemi, Akanni; Shiferaw, Solomon; Baya, Banza; Bahan, Dalomi; Barros, Aluisio J. D.; Walker, Neff; Friedman, Howard

2015-01-01

Background In sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have stressed the importance of spatial heterogeneity analysis in modern contraceptive use and the relationships with high-risk births. Objective This paper aims to analyse the association between modern contraceptive use, distribution of birth risk, and under-five child mortality at both national and regional levels in Burkina Faso. Design The last three Demographic and Health Surveys – conducted in Burkina Faso in 1998, 2003, and 2010 – enabled descriptions of differentials, trends, and associations between modern contraceptive use, total fertility rates (TFR), and factors associated with high-risk births and under-five child mortality. Multivariate models, adjusted by covariates of cultural and socio-economic background and contact with health system, were used to investigate the relationship between birth risk factors and modern contraceptive prevalence rates (mCPR). Results Overall, Burkina Faso's modern contraception level remains low (15.4% in 2010), despite significant increases during the last decade. However, there are substantial variations in mCPR by region, and health facility contact was positively associated with mCPR increase. Women's fertility history and cultural and socio-economic background were also significant factors in predicting use of modern contraception. Low modern contraceptive use is associated with higher birth risks and increased child mortality. This association is stronger in the Sahel, Est, and Sud-Ouest regions. Even though all factors in high-risk births were associated with under-five mortality, it should be stressed that short birth spacing ranked as the highest risk in relation to mortality of children. Conclusions Programmes that target sub-national differentials and leverage women's health system contacts to inform women about family planning opportunities may be effective in improving coverage, quality, and equity of modern contraceptive use. Improving the demand satisfied for modern contraception may result in a reduction in the percentage of women experiencing high-risk births and may also reduce child mortality. PMID:26562142

Political determinants of progress in the MDGs in Sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Atti, Emma; Gulis, Gabriel

2017-11-01

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) lagged furthest behind in achieving targets for the millennium development goals (MDG). We investigate the hypothesis that its slow progress is influenced by political factors. Longitudinal data on three health MDG indicators: under-five mortality, maternal mortality and HIV prevalence rates were collated from 1990 to 2012 in 48 countries. Countries were grouped into geo-political and eco-political groups. Groupings were based on conflict trends in geographical regions and the International Monetary Fund's classification of SSA countries based on gross national income and development assistance respectively. Cumulative progress in each group was derived and main effects tested using ANOVA. Correlation analysis was conducted between political variables - POLITY 2, fragile state index (FSI), voter turnout rates, civil liberty scores (CLS) and the health variables. Our results suggest a significant main effect of eco-political and geo-political groups on some of the health variables. Political conflict as measured by FSI and political participation as measured by CLS were stronger predictors of slow progress in reducing under-five mortality rates and maternal mortality ratios. Our findings highlight the need for further research on political determinants of mortality in SSA. Cohesive effort should focus on strengthening countries' political, economic and social capacities in order to achieve sustainable goals beyond 2015.

Trends and determinants of infant and under-five childhood mortality in Vietnam, 1986-2011.

PubMed

Lee, Hwa-Young; Van Do, Dung; Choi, Sugy; Trinh, Oanh Thi Hoang; To, Kien Gia

2016-01-01

Although Vietnam has taken great efforts to reduce child mortality in recent years, a large number of children still die at early age. Only a few studies have been conducted to identify at-risk groups in order to provide baseline information for effective interventions. The study estimated the overall trends in infant mortality rate (IMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR) during 1986-2011 and identified demographic and socioeconomic determinants of child mortality. Data from the Vietnam Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICSs) in 2000 (MICS2), 2006 (MICS3) and 2011 (MICS4) were analysed. The IMR and U5MR were calculated using the indirect method developed by William Brass. Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios were estimated to assess the association between child death and demographic and socioeconomic variables. Region-stratified stepwise logistic regression was conducted to test the sensitivity of the results. The IMR and U5MR significantly decreased for both male and female children between 1986 and 2010. Male children had higher IMR and U5MR compared with females in all 3 years. Women who were living in the Northern Midlands and Mountain areas were more likely to experience child deaths compared with women who were living in the Red River Delta. Women who were from minor ethnic groups, had low education, living in urban areas, and had multiple children were more likely to have experienced child deaths. Baby boys require more healthcare attention during the first year of their life. Comprehensive strategies are necessary for tackling child mortality problems in Vietnam. This study shows that child mortality is not just a problem of poverty but involves many other factors. Further studies are needed to investigate pathways underlying associations between demographic and socioeconomic conditions and childhood mortality.

Causes of Early Childhood Deaths in Urban Dhaka, Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Halder, Amal K.; Gurley, Emily S.; Naheed, Aliya; Saha, Samir K.; Brooks, W. Abdullah; Arifeen, Shams El; Sazzad, Hossain M. S.; Kenah, Eben; Luby, Stephen P.

2009-01-01

Data on causes of early childhood death from low-income urban areas are limited. The nationally representative Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2007 estimates 65 children died per 1,000 live births. We investigated rates and causes of under-five deaths in an urban community near two large pediatric hospitals in Dhaka, Bangladesh and evaluated the impact of different recall periods. We conducted a survey in 2006 for 6971 households and a follow up survey in 2007 among eligible remaining households or replacement households. The initial survey collected information for all children under five years old who died in the previous year; the follow up survey on child deaths in the preceding five years. We compared mortality rates based on 1-year recall to the 4 years preceding the most recent 1 year. The initial survey identified 58 deaths among children <5 years in the preceding year. The follow up survey identified a mean 53 deaths per year in the preceding five years (SD±7.3). Under-five mortality rate was 34 and neonatal mortality was 15 per thousand live births during 2006–2007. The leading cause of under-five death was respiratory infections (22%). The mortality rates among children under 4 years old for the two time periods (most recent 1-year recall and the 4 years preceding the most recent 1 year) were similar (36 versus 32). The child mortality in urban Dhaka was substantially lower than the national rate. Mortality rates were not affected by recall periods between 1 and 5 years. PMID:19997507

South African child deaths 1990–2011: have HIV services reversed the trend enough to meet Millennium Development Goal 4?

PubMed Central

Kerber, Kate J.; Lawn, Joy E.; Johnson, Leigh F.; Mahy, Mary; Dorrington, Rob E.; Phillips, Heston; Bradshaw, Debbie; Nannan, Nadine; Msemburi, William; Oestergaard, Mikkel Z.; Walker, Neff P.; Sanders, David; Jackson, Debra

2013-01-01

Objective: To analyse trends in under-five mortality rate in South Africa (1990–2011), particularly the contribution of AIDS deaths. Methods: Three nationally used models for estimating AIDS deaths in children were systematically reviewed. The model outputs were compared with under-five mortality rate estimates for South Africa from two global estimation models. All estimates were compared with available empirical data. Results: Differences between the models resulted in varying point estimates for under-five mortality but the trends were similar, with mortality increasing to a peak around 2005. The three models showing the contribution of AIDS suggest a maximum of 37–39% of child deaths were due to AIDS in 2004–2005 which has since declined. Although the rate of progress from 1990 is not the 4.4% needed to meet Millennium Development Goal 4 for child survival, South Africa's average annual rate of under-five mortality decline between 2006 and 2011 was between 6.3 and 10.2%. Conclusion: In 2005, South Africa was one of only four countries globally with an under-five mortality rate higher than the 1990 Millennium Development Goal baseline. Over the past 5 years, the country has achieved a rate of child mortality reduction exceeded by only three other countries. This rapid turnaround is likely due to scale-up of prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, and to a lesser degree, the expanded roll-out of antiretroviral therapy. Emphasis on these programmes must continue, but failure to address other aspects of care including integrated high-quality maternal and neonatal care means that the decline in child mortality could stall. PMID:23863402

Implementation of the Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses strategy: challenges and recommendations in Botswana

PubMed Central

Mupara, Lucia U.; Lubbe, Johanna C.

2016-01-01

Background Under-five mortality has been a major public health challenge from time immemorial. In response to this challenge, the World Health Organization and the United Nations Children's Fund developed the Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses (IMCI) strategy and presented it to the whole world as a key approach to reduce child morbidity and mortality. Botswana started to implement the IMCI strategy in 1998. Reductions in the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) have been documented, although the reduction is not on par with the expected Millennium Development Goal 4 predictions. Design A quantitative study was done to identify the problems IMCI implementers face when tending children under 5 years in the Gaborone Health District of Botswana. The study population was made up of all the IMCI-trained and registered nurses, and systematic sampling was used to randomly select study participants. Questionnaires were used to collect data. Results The study findings indicated challenges related to low training coverage, health systems, and the unique features of the IMCI strategy. Conclusions The comprehensive implementation of the IMCI strategy has the potential to significantly influence the U5MR in Botswana. PMID:26899774

The Effect of Empowerment and Self-Determination on Health Outcomes.

PubMed

Garces-Ozanne, Arlene; Kalu, Edna Ikechi; Audas, Richard

2016-12-01

There remains a persistent gap in health outcomes between wealthy and poor countries. Basic measures such as life expectancy and infant and under-five mortality remain divergent, with preventable deaths being unacceptably high, despite significant efforts to reduce these disparities. We examine the impact of empowerment, measured by Freedom House's ratings of country's political rights and civil liberties, while controlling for per capita gross domestic product, secondary school enrollment, and income inequality, on national health outcomes. Using data from 1970 to 2013 across 149 countries, our results suggest, quite strongly, that higher levels of empowerment have a significant positive association with life expectancy, particularly for females, and lower rates of infant and under-five mortality. Our results point to the need for efforts to stimulate economic growth be accompanied with reforms to increase the levels empowerment through increasing political rights and civil liberties. © 2016 Society for Public Health Education.

Epidemiology of under-five mortality in İstanbul: changes from 1988 to 2011.

PubMed

Buzcu, Aysun Fahriye; Yetim Şahin, Aylin; Karapinar, Esra; Erol, Özge; Gökçay, Emine Gülbin

2017-06-12

Understanding the causes of under-five deaths is key to realizing sustainable developmental goals. The aim of this descriptive study was to investigate the causes of under-five mortality in İstanbul during 2011 and compare the findings to those of 1988 and 2000. All burial records of İstanbul were evaluated, and cemetery records of 1494 children, who died at under five years of age and were buried in İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality Cemeteries between 1 January and 31 December 2011, were analyzed. Several sociodemographic characteristics and causes of death were compared with the results of studies carried out in 1988 and 2000 in İstanbul with similar methods. Under-five mortality rate was lower in 2011 than in 1988 and 2000. Of all deaths, 58.8% had occurred in the neonatal period and most were in the first day of life, similarly to those of 1988 and 2000. The proportion of deaths in the age group of 1-4 years was found to be increasing. Prematurity and perinatal causes remained the main cause of death under five years of age in İstanbul during the 23-year period. Unknown causes, due to misclassification, were still seen in a relatively high proportion. Under-five mortality rate and death due to infectious diseases decreased in İstanbul from 1988 to 2011. Our findings showed a need for more emphasis on perinatal events and better evaluation of causes of death in clinical practice.

An ecological quantification of the relationships between water, sanitation and infant, child, and maternal mortality

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Water and sanitation access are known to be related to newborn, child, and maternal health. Our study attempts to quantify these relationships globally using country-level data: How much does improving access to water and sanitation influence infant, child, and maternal mortality? Methods Data for 193 countries were abstracted from global databases (World Bank, WHO, and UNICEF). Linear regression was used for the outcomes of under-five mortality rate and infant mortality rate (IMR). These results are presented as events per 1000 live births. Ordinal logistic regression was used to compute odds ratios for the outcome of maternal mortality ratio (MMR). Results Under-five mortality rate decreased by 1.17 (95%CI 1.08-1.26) deaths per 1000, p < 0.001, for every quartile increase in population water access after adjustments for confounders. There was a similar relationship between quartile increase of sanitation access and under-five mortality rate, with a decrease of 1.66 (95%CI 1.11-1.32) deaths per 1000, p < 0.001. Improved water access was also related to IMR, with the IMR decreasing by 1.14 (95%CI 1.05-1.23) deaths per 1000, p < 0.001, with increasing quartile of access to improved water source. The significance of this relationship was retained with quartile improvement in sanitation access, where the decrease in IMR was 1.66 (95%CI 1.11-1.32) deaths per 1000, p < 0.001. The estimated odds ratio that increased quartile of water access was significantly associated with increased quartile of MMR was 0.58 (95%CI 0.39-0.86), p = 0.008. The corresponding odds ratio for sanitation was 0.52 (95%CI 0.32-0.85), p = 0.009, both suggesting that better water and sanitation were associated with decreased MMR. Conclusions Our analyses suggest that access to water and sanitation independently contribute to child and maternal mortality outcomes. If the world is to seriously address the Millennium Development Goals of reducing child and maternal mortality, then improved water and sanitation accesses are key strategies. PMID:22280473

The injury mortality burden in Guinea

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The injury mortality burden of Guinea has been rarely addressed. The paper aimed to report patterns of injury mortality burden in Guinea. Methods We retrieved the mortality data from the Guinean Annual Health Statistics Report 2007. The information about underlying cause of deaths was collected based on Guinean hospital discharge data, Hospital Mortuary and City Council Mortuary data. The causes of death are coded in the 9th International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9). Multivariate Poisson regression was used to test the impacts of sex and age on mortality rates. The statistical analyses were performed using Statatm 10.0. Results In 2007, 7066 persons were reported dying of injuries in Guinea (mortality: 72.8 per 100,000 population). Transportation, fire/burn, falls, homicide and drowning were the five leading causes of fatal injuries for the whole population, accounting for 37%, 22%, 12%, 10% and 6% of total deaths, respectively. In general, age-specific injury causes displayed similar patterns of the whole population except that poisoning replaced falls as a leading cause among children under five years old. Males were at 30-50% more risk of dying from six commonest causes than females and old age groups had higher injury mortality rates than younger age groups. Conclusion Transportation, fire/burn, falls, homicide, and drowning accounted for the majority of total injury mortality burden in Guinea. Males and old adults were high-risk population of fatal injuries and should be targeted by injury prevention. Lots of work is needed to improve weak capacities for injury control in order to reduce the injury mortality burden. PMID:22937768

Geographical Inequalities and Social and Environmental Risk Factors for Under-Five Mortality in Ghana in 2000 and 2010: Bayesian Spatial Analysis of Census Data

PubMed Central

Arku, Raphael E.; Bennett, James E.; Agyeman-Duah, Kofi; Mintah, Samilia E.; Spengler, John D.; Agyei-Mensah, Samuel

2016-01-01

Background Under-five mortality is declining in Ghana and many other countries. Very few studies have measured under-five mortality—and its social and environmental risk factors—at fine spatial resolutions, which is relevant for policy purposes. Our aim was to estimate under-five mortality and its social and environmental risk factors at the district level in Ghana. Methods and Findings We used 10% random samples of Ghana’s 2000 and 2010 National Population and Housing Censuses. We applied indirect demographic methods and a Bayesian spatial model to the information on total number of children ever born and children surviving to estimate under-five mortality (probability of dying by 5 y of age, 5q0) for each of Ghana’s 110 districts. We also used the census data to estimate the distributions of households or persons in each district in terms of fuel used for cooking, sanitation facility, drinking water source, and parental education. Median district 5q0 declined from 99 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2000 to 70 in 2010. The decline ranged from <5% in some northern districts, where 5q0 had been higher in 2000, to >40% in southern districts, where it had been lower in 2000, exacerbating existing inequalities. Primary education increased in men and women, and more households had access to improved water and sanitation and cleaner cooking fuels. Higher use of liquefied petroleum gas for cooking was associated with lower 5q0 in multivariate analysis. Conclusions Under-five mortality has declined in all of Ghana’s districts, but the cross-district inequality in mortality has increased. There is a need for additional data, including on healthcare, and additional environmental and socioeconomic measurements, to understand the reasons for the variations in mortality levels and trends. PMID:27327774

Changes in government spending on healthcare and population mortality in the European union, 1995–2010: a cross-sectional ecological study

PubMed Central

Watkins, Johnathan; Atun, Rifat; Williams, Callum; Zeltner, Thomas; Maruthappu, Mahiben

2015-01-01

Objective Economic measures such as unemployment and gross domestic product are correlated with changes in health outcomes. We aimed to examine the effects of changes in government healthcare spending, an increasingly important measure given constrained government budgets in several European Union countries. Design Multivariate regression analysis was used to assess the effect of changes in healthcare spending as a proportion of total government expenditure, government healthcare spending as a proportion of gross domestic product and government healthcare spending measured in purchasing power parity per capita, on five mortality indicators. Additional variables were controlled for to ensure robustness of data. One to five year lag analyses were conducted. Setting and Participants European Union countries 1995–2010. Main outcome measures Neonatal mortality, postneonatal mortality, one to five years of age mortality, under five years of age mortality, adult male mortality, adult female mortality. Results A 1% decrease in government healthcare spending was associated with significant increase in all mortality metrics: neonatal mortality (coefficient −0.1217, p = 0.0001), postneonatal mortality (coefficient −0.0499, p = 0.0018), one to five years of age mortality (coefficient −0.0185, p = 0.0002), under five years of age mortality (coefficient −0.1897, p = 0.0003), adult male mortality (coefficient −2.5398, p = 0.0000) and adult female mortality (coefficient −1.4492, p = 0.0000). One per cent decrease in healthcare spending, measured as a proportion of gross domestic product and in purchasing power parity, was both associated with significant increases (p < 0.05) in all metrics. Five years after the 1% decrease in healthcare spending, significant increases (p < 0.05) continued to be observed in all mortality metrics. Conclusions Decreased government healthcare spending is associated with increased population mortality in the short and long term. Policy interventions implemented in response to the financial crisis may be associated with worsening population health. PMID:26510733

Changes in government spending on healthcare and population mortality in the European union, 1995-2010: a cross-sectional ecological study.

PubMed

Budhdeo, Sanjay; Watkins, Johnathan; Atun, Rifat; Williams, Callum; Zeltner, Thomas; Maruthappu, Mahiben

2015-12-01

Economic measures such as unemployment and gross domestic product are correlated with changes in health outcomes. We aimed to examine the effects of changes in government healthcare spending, an increasingly important measure given constrained government budgets in several European Union countries. Multivariate regression analysis was used to assess the effect of changes in healthcare spending as a proportion of total government expenditure, government healthcare spending as a proportion of gross domestic product and government healthcare spending measured in purchasing power parity per capita, on five mortality indicators. Additional variables were controlled for to ensure robustness of data. One to five year lag analyses were conducted. European Union countries 1995-2010. Neonatal mortality, postneonatal mortality, one to five years of age mortality, under five years of age mortality, adult male mortality, adult female mortality. A 1% decrease in government healthcare spending was associated with significant increase in all mortality metrics: neonatal mortality (coefficient -0.1217, p = 0.0001), postneonatal mortality (coefficient -0.0499, p = 0.0018), one to five years of age mortality (coefficient -0.0185, p = 0.0002), under five years of age mortality (coefficient -0.1897, p = 0.0003), adult male mortality (coefficient -2.5398, p = 0.0000) and adult female mortality (coefficient -1.4492, p = 0.0000). One per cent decrease in healthcare spending, measured as a proportion of gross domestic product and in purchasing power parity, was both associated with significant increases (p < 0.05) in all metrics. Five years after the 1% decrease in healthcare spending, significant increases (p < 0.05) continued to be observed in all mortality metrics. Decreased government healthcare spending is associated with increased population mortality in the short and long term. Policy interventions implemented in response to the financial crisis may be associated with worsening population health. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

Effect of Investment in Malaria Control on Child Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2002–2008

PubMed Central

Akachi, Yoko; Atun, Rifat

2011-01-01

Background Around 8.8 million children under-five die each year, mostly due to infectious diseases, including malaria that accounts for 16% of deaths in Africa, but the impact of international financing of malaria control on under-five mortality in sub-Saharan Africa has not been examined. Methods and Findings We combined multiple data sources and used panel data regression analysis to study the relationship among investment, service delivery/intervention coverage, and impact on child health by observing changes in 34 sub-Saharan African countries over 2002–2008. We used Lives Saved Tool to estimate the number of lives saved from coverage increase of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs)/indoor residual spraying (IRS). As an indicator of outcome, we also used under-five mortality rate. Global Fund investments comprised more than 70% of the Official Development Assistance (ODA) for malaria control in 34 countries. Each $1 million ODA for malaria enabled distribution of 50,478 ITNs [95%CI: 37,774–63,182] in the disbursement year. 1,000 additional ITNs distributed saved 0.625 lives [95%CI: 0.369–0.881]. Cumulatively Global Fund investments that increased ITN/IRS coverage in 2002–2008 prevented an estimated 240,000 deaths. Countries with higher malaria burden received less ODA disbursement per person-at-risk compared to lower-burden countries ($3.90 vs. $7.05). Increased ITN/IRS coverage in high-burden countries led to 3,575 lives saved per 1 million children, as compared with 914 lives in lower-burden countries. Impact of ITN/IRS coverage on under-five mortality was significant among major child health interventions such as immunisation showing that 10% increase in households with ITN/IRS would reduce 1.5 [95%CI: 0.3–2.8] child deaths per 1000 live births. Conclusions Along with other key child survival interventions, increased ITNs/IRS coverage has significantly contributed to child mortality reduction since 2002. ITN/IRS scale-up can be more efficiently prioritized to countries where malaria is a major cause of child deaths to save greater number of lives with available resources. PMID:21738633

Ethnic differentials in under-five mortality in Nigeria

PubMed Central

Adedini, Sunday A.; Odimegwu, Clifford; Imasiku, Eunice N.S.; Ononokpono, Dorothy N.

2015-01-01

Objective. There are huge regional disparities in under-five mortality in Nigeria. While a region within the country has as high as 222 under-five deaths per 1000 live births, the rate is as low as 89 per 1000 live births in another region. Nigeria is culturally diverse as there are more than 250 identifiable ethnic groups in the country; and various ethnic groups have different sociocultural values and practices which could influence child health outcome. Thus, the main objective of this study was to examine the ethnic differentials in under-five mortality in Nigeria. Design. The study utilized 2008 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) data. We analyzed data from a nationally representative sample drawn from 33,385 women aged 15–49 that had a total of 104,808 live births within 1993–2008. In order to examine ethnic differentials in under-five mortality over a sufficiently long period of time, our analysis considered live births within 15 years preceding the 2008 NDHS. The risks of death in children below age five were estimated using Cox proportional regression analysis. Results were presented as hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results. The study found substantial differentials in under-five mortality by ethnic affiliations. For instance, risks of death were significantly lower for children of the Yoruba tribes (HR: 0.39, CI: 0.37–0.42, p < 0.001), children of Igbo tribes (HR: 0.58, CI: 0.55–0.61, p < 0.001) and children of the minority ethnic groups (HR: 0.66, CI: 0.64–0.68, p < 0.001), compared to children of the Hausa/Fulani/Kanuri tribes. Besides, practices such as plural marriage, having higher-order births and too close births showed statistical significance for increased risks of under-five mortality (p < 0.05). Conclusion. The findings of this study stress the need to address the ethnic norms and practices that negatively impact on child health and survival among some ethnic groups in Nigeria. PMID:24593689

Neonatal Mortality and Inequalities in Bangladesh: Differential Progress and Sub-national Developments.

PubMed

Minnery, Mark; Firth, Sonja; Hodge, Andrew; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana

2015-09-01

A rapid reduction in under-five mortality has put Bangladesh on-track to reach Millennium Development Goal 4. Little research, however, has been conducted into neonatal reductions and sub-national rates in the country, with considerable disparities potentially masked by national reductions. The aim of this paper is to estimate national and sub-national rates of neonatal mortality to compute relative and absolute inequalities between sub-national groups and draw comparisons with rates of under-five mortality. Mortality rates for under-five children and neonates were estimated directly for 1980-1981 to 2010-2011 using data from six waves of the Demographic and Health Survey. Rates were stratified by levels of rural/urban location, household wealth and maternal education. Absolute and relative inequalities within these groups were measured by rate differences and ratios, and where possible, slope and relative indices of inequality. National mortality was shown to have decreased dramatically although at differential rates for under-fives and neonates. Across all equity markers, a general pattern of declining absolute but constant relative inequalities was found. For mortality rates stratified by education and wealth mixed evidence suggests that relative inequalities may have also fallen. Although disparities remain, Bangladesh has achieved a rare combination of substantive reductions in mortality levels without increases in relative inequalities. A coalescence of substantial increases in coverage and equitable distribution of key child and neonatal interventions with widespread health sectoral and policy changes over the last 30 years may in part explain this exceptional pattern.

Overcoming Stagnation in the Levels and Distribution of Child Mortality: The Case of the Philippines.

PubMed

Bermejo, Raoul; Firth, Sonja; Hodge, Andrew; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Zeck, Willibald

2015-01-01

Health-related within-country inequalities continue to be a matter of great interest and concern to both policy makers and researchers. This study aims to assess the level and the distribution of child mortality outcomes in the Philippines across geographical and socioeconomic indicators. Data on 159,130 children ever borne were analysed from five waves of the Philippine Demographic and Health Survey. Direct estimation was used to construct under-five and neonatal mortality rates for the period 1980-2013. Rate differences and ratios, and where possible, slope and relative indices of inequality were calculated to measure disparities on absolute and relative scales. Stratification was undertaken by levels of rural/urban location, island groups and household wealth. National under-five and neonatal mortality rates have shown considerable albeit differential reductions since 1980. Recently released data suggests that neonatal mortality has declined following a period of stagnation. Declines in under-five mortality have been accompanied by decreases in wealth and geography-related absolute inequalities. However, relative inequalities for the same markers have remained stable over time. For neonates, mixed evidence suggests that absolute and relative inequalities have remained stable or may have risen. In addition to continued reductions in under-five mortality, new data suggests that the Philippines have achieved success in addressing the commonly observed stagnated trend in neonatal mortality. This success has been driven by economic improvement since 2006 as well as efforts to implement a nationwide universal health care campaign. Yet, such patterns, nonetheless, accorded with persistent inequalities, particularly on a relative scale. A continued focus on addressing universal coverage, the influence of decentralisation and armed conflict, and issues along the continuum of care is advocated.

Overcoming Stagnation in the Levels and Distribution of Child Mortality: The Case of the Philippines

PubMed Central

Bermejo, Raoul; Firth, Sonja; Hodge, Andrew; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Zeck, Willibald

2015-01-01

Background Health-related within-country inequalities continue to be a matter of great interest and concern to both policy makers and researchers. This study aims to assess the level and the distribution of child mortality outcomes in the Philippines across geographical and socioeconomic indicators. Methodology Data on 159,130 children ever borne were analysed from five waves of the Philippine Demographic and Health Survey. Direct estimation was used to construct under-five and neonatal mortality rates for the period 1980–2013. Rate differences and ratios, and where possible, slope and relative indices of inequality were calculated to measure disparities on absolute and relative scales. Stratification was undertaken by levels of rural/urban location, island groups and household wealth. Findings National under-five and neonatal mortality rates have shown considerable albeit differential reductions since 1980. Recently released data suggests that neonatal mortality has declined following a period of stagnation. Declines in under-five mortality have been accompanied by decreases in wealth and geography-related absolute inequalities. However, relative inequalities for the same markers have remained stable over time. For neonates, mixed evidence suggests that absolute and relative inequalities have remained stable or may have risen. Conclusion In addition to continued reductions in under-five mortality, new data suggests that the Philippines have achieved success in addressing the commonly observed stagnated trend in neonatal mortality. This success has been driven by economic improvement since 2006 as well as efforts to implement a nationwide universal health care campaign. Yet, such patterns, nonetheless, accorded with persistent inequalities, particularly on a relative scale. A continued focus on addressing universal coverage, the influence of decentralisation and armed conflict, and issues along the continuum of care is advocated. PMID:26431409

Trend analysis of mortality rates and causes of death in children under 5 years old in Beijing, China from 1992 to 2015 and forecast of mortality into the future: an entire population-based epidemiological study.

PubMed

Cao, Han; Wang, Jing; Li, Yichen; Li, Dongyang; Guo, Jin; Hu, Yifei; Meng, Kai; He, Dian; Liu, Bin; Liu, Zheng; Qi, Han; Zhang, Ling

2017-09-18

To analyse trends in mortality and causes of death among children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China between 1992 and 2015 and to forecast under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) for the period 2016-2020. An entire population-based epidemiological study was conducted. Data collection was based on the Child Death Reporting Card of the Beijing Under-5 Mortality Rate Surveillance Network. Trends in mortality and leading causes of death were analysed using the χ 2 test and SPSS 19.0 software. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was fitted to forecast U5MRs between 2016 and 2020 using the EViews 8.0 software. Mortality in neonates, infants and children aged under 5 years decreased by 84.06%, 80.04% and 80.17% from 1992 to 2015, respectively. However, the U5MR increased by 7.20% from 2013 to 2015. Birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities comprised the top five causes of death. The greatest, most rapid reduction was that of pneumonia by 92.26%, with an annual average rate of reduction of 10.53%. The distribution of causes of death differed among children of different ages. Accidental asphyxia and sepsis were among the top five causes of death in children aged 28 days to 1 year and accident was among the top five causes in children aged 1-4 years. The U5MRs in Beijing are projected to be 2.88‰, 2.87‰, 2.90‰, 2.97‰ and 3.09‰ for the period 2016-2020, based on the predictive model. Beijing has made considerable progress in reducing U5MRs from 1992 to 2015. However, U5MRs could show a slight upward trend from 2016 to 2020. Future considerations for child healthcare include the management of birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities. Specific preventative measures should be implemented for children of various age groups. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Trend analysis of mortality rates and causes of death in children under 5 years old in Beijing, China from 1992 to 2015 and forecast of mortality into the future: an entire population-based epidemiological study

PubMed Central

Cao, Han; Wang, Jing; Li, Yichen; Li, Dongyang; Guo, Jin; Hu, Yifei; Meng, Kai; He, Dian; Liu, Bin; Liu, Zheng; Qi, Han; Zhang, Ling

2017-01-01

Objectives To analyse trends in mortality and causes of death among children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China between 1992 and 2015 and to forecast under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) for the period 2016–2020. Methods An entire population-based epidemiological study was conducted. Data collection was based on the Child Death Reporting Card of the Beijing Under-5 Mortality Rate Surveillance Network. Trends in mortality and leading causes of death were analysed using the χ2 test and SPSS 19.0 software. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was fitted to forecast U5MRs between 2016 and 2020 using the EViews 8.0 software. Results Mortality in neonates, infants and children aged under 5 years decreased by 84.06%, 80.04% and 80.17% from 1992 to 2015, respectively. However, the U5MR increased by 7.20% from 2013 to 2015. Birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities comprised the top five causes of death. The greatest, most rapid reduction was that of pneumonia by 92.26%, with an annual average rate of reduction of 10.53%. The distribution of causes of death differed among children of different ages. Accidental asphyxia and sepsis were among the top five causes of death in children aged 28 days to 1 year and accident was among the top five causes in children aged 1–4 years. The U5MRs in Beijing are projected to be 2.88‰, 2.87‰, 2.90‰, 2.97‰ and 3.09‰ for the period 2016–2020, based on the predictive model. Conclusion Beijing has made considerable progress in reducing U5MRs from 1992 to 2015. However, U5MRs could show a slight upward trend from 2016 to 2020. Future considerations for child healthcare include the management of birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities. Specific preventative measures should be implemented for children of various age groups. PMID:28928178

Efficacy of World Health Organization guideline in facility-based reduction of mortality in severely malnourished children from low and middle income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Hossain, Muttaquina; Chisti, Mohammod J; Hossain, Mohammod Iqbal; Mahfuz, Mustafa; Islam, Mohammad Munirul; Ahmed, Tahmeed

2017-05-01

Globally more than 19 million under-five children suffer from severe acute malnutrition (SAM). Data on efficacy of World Health Organization's (WHO's) guideline in reducing SAM mortality are limited. We aimed to assess the efficacy of WHO's facility-based guideline for the reduction of under-five SAM children mortality from low and middle income countries (LMICs). A systematic search of literature published in 1980-2015 was conducted using electronic databases. Additional articles were identified from the reference lists and grey literature. Studies from LMICs where SAM children (0-59 months) were managed in facilities according to WHO's guideline were included. Outcome was reduction in SAM mortality measured by case fatality rate (CFR). The review was reported following the Grading of Recommendations Assessment Development and Evaluation and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guideline and meta-analyses done using RevMan 5.3®. This review identified nine studies, which demonstrated reductions in SAM mortality. CFR ranged from 8 to 16% where WHO guideline applied. High rates of poverty, malnutrition, severe co-morbid condition, lack of resources and differences in treatment practices played a key role in large CFR variation. Most death occurred within 48 h of admission in Asia, between 4 days and 4 weeks in Africa and in Latin America. CFR was reduced by 41% (odds ratio: 0.59; 95% confidence interval: 0.46-0.76) when WHO guideline were applied. A 45% reduction in CFR was achieved after excluding human immunodeficiency virus positive cases. Dietary management also differed among WHO and conventional management. Children receiving SAM inpatient care as per WHO guideline have reduced CFR compared to conventional treatment. © 2017 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (The Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

Global, regional, and national levels and trends in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2015, with scenario-based projections to 2030: a systematic analysis by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation.

PubMed

You, Danzhen; Hug, Lucia; Ejdemyr, Simon; Idele, Priscila; Hogan, Daniel; Mathers, Colin; Gerland, Patrick; New, Jin Rou; Alkema, Leontine

2015-12-05

In 2000, world leaders agreed on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). MDG 4 called for a two-thirds reduction in the under-5 mortality rate between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to estimate levels and trends in under-5 mortality for 195 countries from 1990 to 2015 to assess MDG 4 achievement and then intended to project how various post-2015 targets and observed rates of change will affect the burden of under-5 deaths from 2016 to 2030. We updated the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) database with 5700 country-year datapoints. As of July, 2015, the database contains about 17 000 country-year datapoints for mortality of children younger than 5 years for 195 countries, and includes all available nationally-representative data from vital registration systems, population censuses, household surveys, and sample registration systems. We used these data to generate estimates, with uncertainty intervals, of under-5 (age 0-4 years) mortality using a Bayesian B-spline bias-reduction model (B3 model). This model includes a data model to adjust for systematic biases associated with different types of data sources. To provide insights into the global and regional burden of under-5 deaths associated with post-2015 targets, we constructed five scenario-based projections for under-5 mortality from 2016 to 2030 and estimated national, regional, and global under-5 mortality rates up to 2030 for each scenario. The global under-5 mortality rate has fallen from 90·6 deaths per 1000 livebirths (90% uncertainty interval 89·3-92·2) in 1990 to 42·5 (40·9-45·6) in 2015. During the same period, the annual number of under-5 deaths worldwide dropped from 12·7 million (12·6 million-13·0 million) to 5·9 million (5·7 million-6·4 million). The global under-5 mortality rate reduced by 53% (50-55%) in the past 25 years and therefore missed the MDG 4 target. Based on point estimates, two regions-east Asia and the Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean-achieved the MDG 4 target. 62 countries achieved the MDG 4 target, of which 24 were low-income and lower-middle income countries. Between 2016 and 2030, 94·4 million children are projected to die before the age of 5 years if the 2015 mortality rate remains constant in each country, and 68·8 million would die if each country continues to reduce its mortality rate at the pace estimated from 2000 to 2015. If all countries achieve the Sustainable Development Goal of an under-5 mortality rate of 25 or fewer deaths per 1000 livebirths by 2030, we project 56·0 million deaths by 2030. About two-thirds of all sub-Saharan African countries need to accelerate progress to achieve this target. Despite substantial progress in reducing child mortality, concerted efforts remain necessary to avoid preventable under-5 deaths in the coming years and to accelerate progress in improving child survival further. Urgent actions are needed most in the regions and countries with high under-5 mortality rates, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. None. Copyright © 2015 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd/Inc/BV. All rights reserved. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Application of random survival forests in understanding the determinants of under-five child mortality in Uganda in the presence of covariates that satisfy the proportional and non-proportional hazards assumption.

PubMed

Nasejje, Justine B; Mwambi, Henry

2017-09-07

Uganda just like any other Sub-Saharan African country, has a high under-five child mortality rate. To inform policy on intervention strategies, sound statistical methods are required to critically identify factors strongly associated with under-five child mortality rates. The Cox proportional hazards model has been a common choice in analysing data to understand factors strongly associated with high child mortality rates taking age as the time-to-event variable. However, due to its restrictive proportional hazards (PH) assumption, some covariates of interest which do not satisfy the assumption are often excluded in the analysis to avoid mis-specifying the model. Otherwise using covariates that clearly violate the assumption would mean invalid results. Survival trees and random survival forests are increasingly becoming popular in analysing survival data particularly in the case of large survey data and could be attractive alternatives to models with the restrictive PH assumption. In this article, we adopt random survival forests which have never been used in understanding factors affecting under-five child mortality rates in Uganda using Demographic and Health Survey data. Thus the first part of the analysis is based on the use of the classical Cox PH model and the second part of the analysis is based on the use of random survival forests in the presence of covariates that do not necessarily satisfy the PH assumption. Random survival forests and the Cox proportional hazards model agree that the sex of the household head, sex of the child, number of births in the past 1 year are strongly associated to under-five child mortality in Uganda given all the three covariates satisfy the PH assumption. Random survival forests further demonstrated that covariates that were originally excluded from the earlier analysis due to violation of the PH assumption were important in explaining under-five child mortality rates. These covariates include the number of children under the age of five in a household, number of births in the past 5 years, wealth index, total number of children ever born and the child's birth order. The results further indicated that the predictive performance for random survival forests built using covariates including those that violate the PH assumption was higher than that for random survival forests built using only covariates that satisfy the PH assumption. Random survival forests are appealing methods in analysing public health data to understand factors strongly associated with under-five child mortality rates especially in the presence of covariates that violate the proportional hazards assumption.

Reducing child mortality in Nigeria: a case study of immunization and systemic factors.

PubMed

Nwogu, Rufus; Ngowu, Rufus; Larson, James S; Kim, Min Su

2008-07-01

The purpose of the study is to assess the outcome of the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) in Nigeria, as well as to examine systemic factors influencing its high under-five mortality rate (UFMR). The principal objective of the EPI program when it was implemented in 1978 was to reduce mortality, morbidity and disability associated with six vaccine preventable diseases namely tuberculosis, tetanus, diphtheria, measles, pertussis and poliomyelitis. The methodological approach to this study is quantitative, using secondary time series data from 1970 to 2003. The study tested three hypotheses using time series multiple regression analysis with autocorrelation adjustment as a statistical model. The results showed that the EPI program had little effect on UFMR in Nigeria. Only the literacy rate and domestic spending on healthcare had statistically significant effects on the UFMR. The military government was not a significant factor in reducing or increasing the UFMR. It appears that Nigeria needs a unified approach to healthcare delivery, rather than fragmented programs, to overcome cultural and political divisions in society.

Stagnant neonatal mortality and persistent health inequality in middle-income countries: a case study of the Philippines.

PubMed

Kraft, Aleli D; Nguyen, Kim-Huong; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Hodge, Andrew

2013-01-01

The probability of survival through childhood continues to be unequal in middle-income countries. This study uses data from the Philippines to assess trends in the prevalence and distribution of child mortality and to evaluate the country's socioeconomic-related child health inequality. Using data from four Demographic and Health Surveys we estimated levels and trends of neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality from 1990 to 2007. Mortality estimates at national and subnational levels were produced using both direct and indirect methods. Concentration indices were computed to measure child health inequality by wealth status. Multivariate regression analyses were used to assess the contribution of interventions and socioeconomic factors to wealth-related inequality. Despite substantial reductions in national under-five and infant mortality rates in the early 1990s, the rates of declines have slowed in recent years and neonatal mortality rates remain stubbornly high. Substantial variations across urban-rural, regional, and wealth equity-markers are evident, and suggest that the gaps between the best and worst performing sub-populations will either be maintained or widen in the future. Of the variables tested, recent wealth-related inequalities are found to be strongly associated with social factors (e.g. maternal education), regional location, and access to health services, such as facility-based delivery. The Philippines has achieved substantial progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4, but this success masks substantial inequalities and stagnating neonatal mortality trends. This analysis supports a focus on health interventions of high quality--that is, not just facility-based delivery, but delivery by trained staff at well-functioning facilities and supported by a strong referral system--to re-start the long term decline in neonatal mortality and to reduce persistent within-country inequalities in child health.

Trends and determinants of infant and under-five childhood mortality in Vietnam, 1986–2011

PubMed Central

Lee, Hwa-Young; Van Do, Dung; Choi, Sugy; Trinh, Oanh Thi Hoang; To, Kien Gia

2016-01-01

Background Although Vietnam has taken great efforts to reduce child mortality in recent years, a large number of children still die at early age. Only a few studies have been conducted to identify at-risk groups in order to provide baseline information for effective interventions. Objective The study estimated the overall trends in infant mortality rate (IMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR) during 1986–2011 and identified demographic and socioeconomic determinants of child mortality. Design Data from the Vietnam Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICSs) in 2000 (MICS2), 2006 (MICS3) and 2011 (MICS4) were analysed. The IMR and U5MR were calculated using the indirect method developed by William Brass. Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios were estimated to assess the association between child death and demographic and socioeconomic variables. Region-stratified stepwise logistic regression was conducted to test the sensitivity of the results. Results The IMR and U5MR significantly decreased for both male and female children between 1986 and 2010. Male children had higher IMR and U5MR compared with females in all 3 years. Women who were living in the Northern Midlands and Mountain areas were more likely to experience child deaths compared with women who were living in the Red River Delta. Women who were from minor ethnic groups, had low education, living in urban areas, and had multiple children were more likely to have experienced child deaths. Conclusion Baby boys require more healthcare attention during the first year of their life. Comprehensive strategies are necessary for tackling child mortality problems in Vietnam. This study shows that child mortality is not just a problem of poverty but involves many other factors. Further studies are needed to investigate pathways underlying associations between demographic and socioeconomic conditions and childhood mortality. PMID:26950560

Mortality Prediction in the Oldest Old with Five Different Equations to Estimate Glomerular Filtration Rate: The Health and Anemia Population-based Study

PubMed Central

Mandelli, Sara; Riva, Emma; Tettamanti, Mauro; Detoma, Paolo; Giacomin, Adriano; Lucca, Ugo

2015-01-01

Background Kidney function declines considerably with age, but little is known about its clinical significance in the oldest-old. Objectives To study the association between reduced glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimated according to five equations with mortality in the oldest-old. Design Prospective population-based study. Setting Municipality of Biella, Piedmont, Italy. Participants 700 subjects aged 85 and older participating in the “Health and Anemia” Study in 2007–2008. Measurements GFR was estimated using five creatinine-based equations: the Cockcroft-Gault (C-G), Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD), MAYO Clinic, Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) and Berlin Initiative Study-1 (BIS-1). Survival analysis was used to study mortality in subjects with reduced eGFR (<60 mL/min/1.73m2) compared to subjects with eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73m2. Results Prevalence of reduced GFR was 90.7% with the C-G, 48.1% with MDRD, 23.3% with MAYO, 53.6% with CKD-EPI and 84.4% with BIS-1. After adjustment for confounders, two-year mortality was significantly increased in subjects with reduced eGFR using BIS-1 and C-G equations (adjusted HRs: 2.88 and 3.30, respectively). Five-year mortality was significantly increased in subjects with eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73m2 using MAYO, CKD-EPI and, in a graduated fashion in reduced eGFR categories, MDRD. After 5 years, oldest old with an eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73m2 showed a significantly higher risk of death whichever equation was used (adjusted HRs between 2.04 and 2.70). Conclusion In the oldest old, prevalence of reduced eGFR varies noticeably depending on the equation used. In this population, risk of mortality was significantly higher for reduced GFR estimated with the BIS-1 and C-G equations over the short term. Though after five years the MDRD appeared on the whole a more consistent predictor, differences in mortality prediction among equations over the long term were less apparent. Noteworthy, subjects with a severely reduced GFR were consistently at higher risk of death regardless of the equation used to estimate GFR. PMID:26317988

Mortality Prediction in the Oldest Old with Five Different Equations to Estimate Glomerular Filtration Rate: The Health and Anemia Population-based Study.

PubMed

Mandelli, Sara; Riva, Emma; Tettamanti, Mauro; Detoma, Paolo; Giacomin, Adriano; Lucca, Ugo

2015-01-01

Kidney function declines considerably with age, but little is known about its clinical significance in the oldest-old. To study the association between reduced glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimated according to five equations with mortality in the oldest-old. Prospective population-based study. Municipality of Biella, Piedmont, Italy. 700 subjects aged 85 and older participating in the "Health and Anemia" Study in 2007-2008. GFR was estimated using five creatinine-based equations: the Cockcroft-Gault (C-G), Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD), MAYO Clinic, Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) and Berlin Initiative Study-1 (BIS-1). Survival analysis was used to study mortality in subjects with reduced eGFR (<60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) compared to subjects with eGFR ≥ 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2). Prevalence of reduced GFR was 90.7% with the C-G, 48.1% with MDRD, 23.3% with MAYO, 53.6% with CKD-EPI and 84.4% with BIS-1. After adjustment for confounders, two-year mortality was significantly increased in subjects with reduced eGFR using BIS-1 and C-G equations (adjusted HRs: 2.88 and 3.30, respectively). Five-year mortality was significantly increased in subjects with eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) using MAYO, CKD-EPI and, in a graduated fashion in reduced eGFR categories, MDRD. After 5 years, oldest old with an eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73 m(2) showed a significantly higher risk of death whichever equation was used (adjusted HRs between 2.04 and 2.70). In the oldest old, prevalence of reduced eGFR varies noticeably depending on the equation used. In this population, risk of mortality was significantly higher for reduced GFR estimated with the BIS-1 and C-G equations over the short term. Though after five years the MDRD appeared on the whole a more consistent predictor, differences in mortality prediction among equations over the long term were less apparent. Noteworthy, subjects with a severely reduced GFR were consistently at higher risk of death regardless of the equation used to estimate GFR.

Mortality in Children Under Five Receiving Nonphysician Clinician Emergency Care in Uganda.

PubMed

Rice, Brian; Periyanayagam, Usha; Chamberlain, Stacey; Dreifuss, Bradley; Hammerstedt, Heather; Nelson, Sara; Maling, Samuel; Bisanzo, Mark

2016-03-01

A nonphysician clinician (NPC) training program was started in Uganda in 2009. NPC care was initially supervised by a physician and subsequent care was independent. The mortality of children under 5 (U5) was analyzed to evaluate the impact of transitioning NPC care from physician-supervised to independent care. A retrospective review was performed of a quality assurance database including 3-day follow-up for all patients presenting to the emergency department (ED). Mortality rates were calculated and χ(2) tests used for significance of proportions. Multiple logistic regression was used to assess independent predictors of mortality. Overall, 68.8% of 4985 U5 patients were admitted and 28.6% were "severely ill." The overall mortality was significantly lower in physician-supervised versus independent NPC care (2.90% vs 5.04%, P = .05). No significant mortality difference was seen between supervised and unsupervised care (2.17% vs 3.01%, P = .43) for the majority of patients that were not severely ill. Severely ill patients analyzed separately showed a significant mortality difference (4.07% vs 10.3%, P = .01). Logistic regression revealed physician supervision significantly reduced mortality for patients overall (odds ratio = 0.52, P = .03), but not for nonseverely ill patients analyzed separately (odds ratio = 0.73, P = .47). Though physician supervision reduced mortality for the severely ill subset of patients, physicians are not available full-time in most EDs in Sub-Saharan Africa. Training NPCs in emergency care produced noninferior mortality outcomes for unsupervised NPC care compared with physician-supervised NPC care for the majority of U5 patients. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

LiST modelling with monitoring data to estimate impact on child mortality of an ORS and zinc programme with public sector providers in Bihar, India.

PubMed

Ayyanat, Jayachandran A; Harbour, Catherine; Kumar, Sanjeev; Singh, Manjula

2018-01-05

Many interventions have attempted to increase vulnerable and remote populations' access to ORS and zinc to reduce child mortality from diarrhoea. However, the impact of these interventions is difficult to measure. From 2010 to 15, Micronutrient Initiative (MI), worked with the public sector in Bihar, India to enable community health workers to treat and report uncomplicated child diarrhoea with ORS and zinc. We describe how we estimated programme's impact on child mortality with Lives Saved Tool (LiST) modelling and data from MI's management information system (MIS). This study demonstrates that using LiST modelling and MIS data are viable options for evaluating programmes to reduce child mortality. We used MI's programme monitoring data to estimate coverage rates and LiST modelling software to estimate programme impact on child mortality. Four scenarios estimated the effects of different rates of programme scale-up and programme coverage on estimated child mortality by measuring children's lives saved. The programme saved an estimated 806-975 children under-5 who had diarrhoea during five-year project phase. Increasing ORS and zinc coverage rates to 19.8% & 18.3% respectively under public sector coverage with effective treatment would have increased the programme's impact on child mortality and could have achieved the project goal of saving 4200 children's lives during the five-year programme. Programme monitoring data can be used with LiST modelling software to estimate coverage rates and programme impact on child mortality. This modelling approach may cost less and yield estimates sooner than directly measuring programme impact with population-based surveys. However, users must be cautious about relying on modelled estimates of impact and ensure that the programme monitoring data used is complete and precise about the programme aspects that are modelled. Otherwise, LiST may mis-estimate impact on child mortality. Further, LiST software may require modifications to its built-in assumptions to capture programmatic inputs. LiST assumes that mortality rates and cause of death structure change only in response to changes in programme coverage. In Bihar, overall child mortality has decreased and diarrhoea seems to be less lethal than previously, but at present LiST does not adjust its estimates for these sorts of changes.

Maternal factors contributing to under-five mortality at birth order 1 to 5 in India: a comprehensive multivariate study.

PubMed

Singh, Rajvir; Tripathi, Vrijesh

2013-01-01

The objective of the study is to assess maternal factors contributing to under-five mortality at birth order 1 to 5 in India. Data for this study was derived from the children's record of the 2007 India National Family Health Survey, which is a nationally representative cross-sectional household survey. Data is segregated according to birth order 1 to 5 to assess mother's occupation, Mother's education, child's gender, Mother's age, place of residence, wealth index, mother's anaemia level, prenatal care, assistance at delivery , antenatal care, place of delivery and other maternal factors contributing to under-five mortality. Out of total 51555 births, analysis is restricted to 16567 children of first birth order, 14409 of second birth order, 8318 of third birth order, 5021 of fourth birth order and 3034 of fifth birth order covering 92% of the total births taken place 0-59 months prior to survey. Mother's average age in years for birth orders 1 to 5 are 23.7, 25.8, 27.4, 29 and 31 years, respectively. Most mothers whose children died are Hindu, with no formal education, severely anaemic and working in the agricultural sector. In multivariate logistic models, maternal education, wealth index and breastfeeding are protective factors across all birth orders. In birth order model 1 and 2, mother's occupation is a significant risk factor. In birth order models 2 to 5, previous birth interval of lesser than 24 months is a risk factor. Child's gender is a risk factor in birth order 1 and 5. Information regarding complications in pregnancy and prenatal care act as protective factors in birth order 1, place of delivery and immunization in birth order 2, and child size at birth in birth order 4. Prediction models demonstrate high discrimination that indicates that our models fit the data. The study has policy implications such as enhancing the Information, Education and Communication network for mothers, especially at higher birth orders, in order to reduce under-five mortality. The study emphasises the need of developing interventions to address the issues of anaemia, mothers working in the agricultural sector and improving relevant literacy among mothers.

Factors associated with declining under-five mortality rates from 2000 to 2013: an ecological analysis of 46 African countries.

PubMed

Kipp, Aaron M; Blevins, Meridith; Haley, Connie A; Mwinga, Kasonde; Habimana, Phanuel; Shepherd, Bryan E; Aliyu, Muktar H; Ketsela, Tigest; Vermund, Sten H

2016-01-08

Inadequate overall progress has been made towards the 4th Millennium Development Goal of reducing under-five mortality rates by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Progress has been variable across African countries. We examined health, economic and social factors potentially associated with reductions in under-five mortality (U5M) from 2000 to 2013. Ecological analysis using publicly available data from the 46 nations within the WHO African Region. We assessed the annual rate of change (ARC) of 70 different factors and their association with the annual rate of reduction (ARR) of U5M rates using robust linear regression models. Most factors improved over the study period for most countries, with the largest increases seen for economic or technological development and external financing factors. The median (IQR) U5M ARR was 3.6% (2.8 to 5.1%). Only 4 of 70 factors demonstrated a strong and significant association with U5M ARRs, adjusting for potential confounders. Higher ARRs were associated with more rapidly increasing coverage of seeking treatment for acute respiratory infection (β=0.22 (ie, a 1% increase in the ARC was associated with a 0.22% increase in ARR); 90% CI 0.09 to 0.35; p=0.01), increasing health expenditure relative to gross domestic product (β=0.26; 95% CI 0.11 to 0.41; p=0.02), increasing fertility rate (β=0.54; 95% CI 0.07 to 1.02; p=0.07) and decreasing maternal mortality ratio (β=-0.47; 95% CI -0.69 to -0.24; p<0.01). The majority of factors showed no association or raised validity concerns due to missing data from a large number of countries. Improvements in sociodemographic, maternal health and governance and financing factors were more likely associated with U5M ARR. These underscore the essential role of contextual factors facilitating child health interventions and services. Surveillance of these factors could help monitor which countries need additional support in reducing U5M. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Geographic disparities in pneumonia-specific under-five mortality rates in Mainland China from 1996 to 2015: a population-based study.

PubMed

Kang, Leni; He, Chunhua; Miao, Lei; Liang, Juan; Zhu, Jun; Li, Xiaohong; Li, Qi; Wang, Yanping

2017-06-01

This study aimed to investigate the disparities in pneumonia-specific under-five mortality rates (U5MRs) among and within three geographic regions in Mainland China from 1996 to 2015. Data were obtained from the national Under-Five Child Mortality Surveillance System and grouped into 2-year periods. The Cochran-Armitage trend test and Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test were used to assess trends and differences in the pneumonia-specific U5MRs among and within geographic regions. Relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated. The pneumonia-specific U5MR decreased by 90.6%, 89.0%, and 83.5% in East, Middle, and West China, respectively, with a larger decrease in rural areas. The pneumonia-specific U5MR was highest in West China, and was 7.2 (95% CI 5.9-8.7) times higher than that in East China in 2014-2015. In 2014-2015, the RRs were 1.7 (95% CI 1.2-2.5), 1.6 (95% CI 1.1-2.1), and 3.4 (95% CI 2.8-4.0) between rural and urban areas in East, Middle, and West China, respectively. Pneumonia-specific U5MRs decreased from 1996 to 2015 across China, particularly in rural areas. However, disparities remained among and within geographic regions. Additional strategies and interventions should be introduced in West China, especially the rural areas, to further reduce the pneumonia-specific U5MR. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Multidimensional poverty and child survival in India.

PubMed

Mohanty, Sanjay K

2011-01-01

Though the concept of multidimensional poverty has been acknowledged cutting across the disciplines (among economists, public health professionals, development thinkers, social scientists, policy makers and international organizations) and included in the development agenda, its measurement and application are still limited. OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY: Using unit data from the National Family and Health Survey 3, India, this paper measures poverty in multidimensional space and examine the linkages of multidimensional poverty with child survival. The multidimensional poverty is measured in the dimension of knowledge, health and wealth and the child survival is measured with respect to infant mortality and under-five mortality. Descriptive statistics, principal component analyses and the life table methods are used in the analyses. The estimates of multidimensional poverty are robust and the inter-state differentials are large. While infant mortality rate and under-five mortality rate are disproportionately higher among the abject poor compared to the non-poor, there are no significant differences in child survival among educationally, economically and health poor at the national level. State pattern in child survival among the education, economical and health poor are mixed. Use of multidimensional poverty measures help to identify abject poor who are unlikely to come out of poverty trap. The child survival is significantly lower among abject poor compared to moderate poor and non-poor. We urge to popularize the concept of multiple deprivations in research and program so as to reduce poverty and inequality in the population.

Independent and combined effects of maternal smoking and solid fuel on infant and child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Akinyemi, Joshua O; Adedini, Sunday A; Wandera, Stephen O; Odimegwu, Clifford O

2016-12-01

To estimate the independent and combined risks of infant and child mortality associated with maternal smoking and use of solid fuel in sub-Saharan Africa. Pooled weighted data on 143 602 under-five children in the most recent demographic and health surveys for 15 sub-Saharan African countries were analysed. The synthetic cohort life table technique and Cox proportional hazard models were employed to investigate the effect of maternal smoking and solid cooking fuel on infant (age 0-11 months) and child (age 12-59 months) mortality. Socio-economic and other confounding variables were included as controls. The distribution of the main explanatory variable in households was as follows: smoking + solid fuel - 4.6%; smoking + non-solid fuel - 0.22%; no smoking + solid fuel - 86.9%; and no smoking + non-solid fuel - 8.2%. The highest infant mortality rate was recorded among children exposed to maternal smoking + solid fuel (72 per 1000 live births); the child mortality rate was estimated to be 54 per 1000 for this group. In full multivariate models, the risk of infant death was 71% higher among those exposed to maternal smoking + solid fuel (HR = 1.71, CI: 1.29-2.28). For ages 12 to 59 months, the risk of death was 99% higher (HR = 1.99, CI: 1.28-3.08). Combined exposures to cigarette smoke and solid fuel increase the risks of infant and child mortality. Mothers of under-five children need to be educated about the danger of smoking while innovative approaches are needed to reduce the mortality risks associated with solid cooking fuel. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Social, economic, and political factors in progress towards improving child survival in developing nations.

PubMed

Lykens, Kristine; Singh, Karan P; Ndukwe, Elewichi; Bae, Sejong

2009-01-01

Child mortality is a persistent health problem faced by developing nations. In 2000 the United Nations (UN) established a set of high priority goals to address global problems of poverty and health, the Millennium Development Goals, which address extreme poverty, hunger, primary education, child mortality, maternal health, infectious diseases, environmental sustainability, and partnerships for development. Goal 4 aims to reduce by two thirds, between 2000 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate in developing countries. In sub-Saharan Africa from 2000 to 2006 these rates have only been reduced from 167 per 1,000 live births to 157, and 27 nations in this region have made no progress towards the goal. A country-specific database was developed from the UN Millennium Development Goal tracking project and other international sources which include age distribution, under-nutrition, per capita income, government expenditures on health, external resources for health, civil liberties, and political rights. A multiple regression analysis examined the extent to which these factors explain the variance in child mortality rates in developing countries. Nutrition, external resources, and per capita income were shown to be significant factors in child survivability. Policy options include developed countries' renewed commitment of resources, and developing nations' commitments towards governance, development, equity, and transparency.

Child Mortality Estimation: Estimating Sex Differences in Childhood Mortality since the 1970s

PubMed Central

Sawyer, Cheryl Chriss

2012-01-01

Introduction Producing estimates of infant (under age 1 y), child (age 1–4 y), and under-five (under age 5 y) mortality rates disaggregated by sex is complicated by problems with data quality and availability. Interpretation of sex differences requires nuanced analysis: girls have a biological advantage against many causes of death that may be eroded if they are disadvantaged in access to resources. Earlier studies found that girls in some regions were not experiencing the survival advantage expected at given levels of mortality. In this paper I generate new estimates of sex differences for the 1970s to the 2000s. Methods and Findings Simple fitting methods were applied to male-to-female ratios of infant and under-five mortality rates from vital registration, surveys, and censuses. The sex ratio estimates were used to disaggregate published series of both-sexes mortality rates that were based on a larger number of sources. In many developing countries, I found that sex ratios of mortality have changed in the same direction as historically occurred in developed countries, but typically had a lower degree of female advantage for a given level of mortality. Regional average sex ratios weighted by numbers of births were found to be highly influenced by China and India, the only countries where both infant mortality and overall under-five mortality were estimated to be higher for girls than for boys in the 2000s. For the less developed regions (comprising Africa, Asia excluding Japan, Latin America/Caribbean, and Oceania excluding Australia and New Zealand), on average, boys' under-five mortality in the 2000s was about 2% higher than girls'. A number of countries were found to still experience higher mortality for girls than boys in the 1–4-y age group, with concentrations in southern Asia, northern Africa/western Asia, and western Africa. In the more developed regions (comprising Europe, northern America, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand), I found that the sex ratio of infant mortality peaked in the 1970s or 1980s and declined thereafter. Conclusions The methods developed here pinpoint regions and countries where sex differences in mortality merit closer examination to ensure that both sexes are sharing equally in access to health resources. Further study of the distribution of causes of death in different settings will aid the interpretation of differences in survival for boys and girls. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary. PMID:22952433

The introduction of new policies and strategies to reduce inequities and improve child health in Kenya: A country case study on progress in child survival, 2000-2013.

PubMed

Brault, Marie A; Ngure, Kenneth; Haley, Connie A; Kabaka, Stewart; Sergon, Kibet; Desta, Teshome; Mwinga, Kasonde; Vermund, Sten H; Kipp, Aaron M

2017-01-01

As of 2015, only 12 countries in the World Health Organization's AFRO region had met Millennium Development Goal #4 (MDG#4) to reduce under-five mortality by two-thirds by 2015. Given the variability across the African region, a four-country study was undertaken to examine barriers and facilitators of child survival prior to 2015. Kenya was one of the countries selected for an in-depth case study due to its insufficient progress in reducing under-five mortality, with only a 28% reduction between 1990 and 2013. This paper presents indicators, national documents, and qualitative data describing the factors that have both facilitated and hindered Kenya's efforts in reducing child mortality. Key barriers identified in the data were widespread socioeconomic and geographic inequities in access and utilization of maternal, neonatal, and child health (MNCH) care. To reduce these inequities, Kenya implemented three major policies/strategies during the study period: removal of user fees, the Kenya Essential Package for Health, and the Community Health Strategy. This paper uses qualitative data and a policy review to explore the early impacts of these efforts. The removal of user fees has been unevenly implemented as patients still face hidden expenses. The Kenya Essential Package for Health has enabled construction and/or expansion of healthcare facilities in many areas, but facilities struggle to provide Emergency Obstetric and Neonatal Care (EmONC), neonatal care, and many essential medicines and commodities. The Community Health Strategy appears to have had the most impact, improving referrals from the community and provision of immunizations, malaria prevention, and Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV. However, the Community Health Strategy is limited by resources and thus also unevenly implemented in many areas. Although insufficient progress was made pre-2015, with additional resources and further scale-up of new policies and strategies Kenya can make further progress in child survival.

The introduction of new policies and strategies to reduce inequities and improve child health in Kenya: A country case study on progress in child survival, 2000-2013

PubMed Central

Brault, Marie A.; Ngure, Kenneth; Haley, Connie A.; Kabaka, Stewart; Sergon, Kibet; Desta, Teshome; Mwinga, Kasonde; Vermund, Sten H.; Kipp, Aaron M.

2017-01-01

As of 2015, only 12 countries in the World Health Organization’s AFRO region had met Millennium Development Goal #4 (MDG#4) to reduce under-five mortality by two-thirds by 2015. Given the variability across the African region, a four-country study was undertaken to examine barriers and facilitators of child survival prior to 2015. Kenya was one of the countries selected for an in-depth case study due to its insufficient progress in reducing under-five mortality, with only a 28% reduction between 1990 and 2013. This paper presents indicators, national documents, and qualitative data describing the factors that have both facilitated and hindered Kenya’s efforts in reducing child mortality. Key barriers identified in the data were widespread socioeconomic and geographic inequities in access and utilization of maternal, neonatal, and child health (MNCH) care. To reduce these inequities, Kenya implemented three major policies/strategies during the study period: removal of user fees, the Kenya Essential Package for Health, and the Community Health Strategy. This paper uses qualitative data and a policy review to explore the early impacts of these efforts. The removal of user fees has been unevenly implemented as patients still face hidden expenses. The Kenya Essential Package for Health has enabled construction and/or expansion of healthcare facilities in many areas, but facilities struggle to provide Emergency Obstetric and Neonatal Care (EmONC), neonatal care, and many essential medicines and commodities. The Community Health Strategy appears to have had the most impact, improving referrals from the community and provision of immunizations, malaria prevention, and Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV. However, the Community Health Strategy is limited by resources and thus also unevenly implemented in many areas. Although insufficient progress was made pre-2015, with additional resources and further scale-up of new policies and strategies Kenya can make further progress in child survival. PMID:28763454

Understanding the determinants of under-five child mortality in Uganda including the estimation of unobserved household and community effects using both frequentist and Bayesian survival analysis approaches.

PubMed

Nasejje, Justine B; Mwambi, Henry G; Achia, Thomas N O

2015-10-01

Infant and child mortality rates are among the health indicators of importance in a given community or country. It is the fourth millennium development goal that by 2015, all the United Nations member countries are expected to have reduced their infant and child mortality rates by two-thirds. Uganda is one of those countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with high infant and child mortality rates, therefore it is important to use sound statistical methods to determine which factors are strongly associated with child mortality which in turn will help inform the design of intervention strategies The Uganda Demographic Health Survey (UDHS) funded by USAID, UNFPA, UNICEF, Irish Aid and the United Kingdom government provides a data set which is rich in information on child mortality or survival. Survival analysis techniques are among the well-developed methods in Statistics for analysing time to event data. These methods were adopted in this paper to examine factors affecting under-five child mortality rates (UMR) in Uganda using the UDHS data for 2011 in R and STATA software. Results obtained by fitting the Cox-proportional hazard model with frailty effects and drawing inference using both the frequentists and Bayesian approaches at 5 % significance level, show evidence of the existence of unobserved heterogeneity at the household level but there was not enough evidence to conclude the existence of unobserved heterogeneity at the community level. Sex of the household head, sex of the child and number of births in the past one year were found to be significant. The results further suggest that over the period of 1990-2015, Uganda reduced its UMR by 52 % . Uganda has not achieved the MDG4 target but the 52 % reduction in the UMR is a move in the positive direction. Demographic factors (sex of the household head) and Biological determinants (sex of the child and number of births in the past one year) are strongly associated with high UMR. Heterogeneity or unobserved covariates were found to be significant at the household but insignificant at the community level.

Causes and differentials of childhood mortality in Iraq

PubMed Central

Awqati, Naira A; Ali, Mohamed M; Al-Ward, Nada J; Majeed, Faiza A; Salman, Khawla; Al-Alak, Mahdi; Al-Gasseer, Naeema

2009-01-01

Background Limited information is available in Iraq regarding the causes of under-five mortality. The vital registration system is deficient in its coverage, particularly from rural areas where access to health services is limited and most deaths occur at home, i.e. outside the health system, and hence the cause of death goes unreported. Knowledge of patterns and trends in causes of under-five mortality is essential for decision-makers in assessing programmatic needs, prioritizing interventions, and monitoring progress. The aim of this study was to identify causes of under-five children deaths using a simplified verbal autopsy questionnaire. The objective was to define the leading symptoms and cause of death among Iraqi children from all regions of Iraq during 1994–1999. Methods To determine the cause structure of child deaths, a simplified verbal autopsy questionnaire was used in interviews conducted in the Iraqi Child & Maternal Mortality Survey (ICMMS) 1999 national sample. All the mothers/caregivers of the deceased children were asked open-ended questions about the symptoms within the two weeks preceding death; they could mention more than one symptom. Results The leading cause of death among under-five children was found to be childhood illnesses in 81.2%, followed by sudden death in 8.9% and accidents in 3.3%. Among under-five children dying of illnesses, cough and difficulty in breathing were the main symptoms preceding death in 34.0%, followed by diarrhea in 24.4%. Among neonates the leading cause was cough/and or difficulty in breathing in 42.3%, followed by sudden death in 11.9%, congenital abnormalities in 10.3% and prematurity in 10.2%. Diarrhea was the leading cause of death among infants in 49.8%, followed by cough and/or difficulty in breathing in 26.6%. Among children 12–59 months diarrhea was the leading cause of death in 43.4%, followed by accidents, injuries, and poisoning in 19.3%, then cough/difficulty in breathing in 14.8%. Conclusion In Iraq Under-five child mortality is one of the highest in the Middle East region; deaths during the neonatal period accounted for more than half of under-five children deaths highlighting an urgent need to introduce health interventions to improve essential neonatal care. Priority needs to be given to the prevention, early and effective treatment of neonatal conditions, diarrheal diseases, acute respiratory infections, and accidents. This study points to the need for further standardized assessments of under-5 mortality in Iraq. PMID:19545410

Residual confounding explains the association between high parity and child mortality.

PubMed

Kozuki, Naoko; Sonneveldt, Emily; Walker, Neff

2013-01-01

This study used data from recent Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to examine the impact of high parity on under-five and neonatal mortality. The analyses used various techniques to attempt eliminating selection issues, including stratification of analyses by mothers' completed fertility. We analyzed DHS datasets from 47 low- and middle-income countries. We only used data from women who were age 35 or older at the time of survey to have a measure of their completed fertility. We ran log-binominal regression by country to calculate relative risk between parity and both under-five and neonatal mortality, controlled for wealth quintile, maternal education, urban versus rural residence, maternal age at first birth, calendar year (to control for possible time trends), and birth interval. We then controlled for maternal background characteristics even further by using mothers' completed fertility as a proxy measure. We found a statistically significant association between high parity and child mortality. However, this association is most likely not physiological, and can be largely attributed to the difference in background characteristics of mothers who complete reproduction with high fertility versus low fertility. Children of high completed fertility mothers have statistically significantly increased risk of death compared to children of low completed fertility mothers at every birth order, even after controlling for available confounders (i.e. among children of birth order 1, adjusted RR of under-five mortality 1.58, 95% CI: 1.42, 1.76). There appears to be residual confounders that put children of high completed fertility mothers at higher risk, regardless of birth order. When we examined the association between parity and under-five mortality among mothers with high completed fertility, it remained statistically significant, but negligible in magnitude (i.e. adjusted RR of under-five mortality 1.03, 95% CI: 1.02-1.05). Our analyses strongly suggest that the observed increased risk of mortality associated with high parity births is not driven by a physiological link between parity and mortality. We found that at each birth order, children born to women who have high fertility at the end of their reproductive period are at significantly higher mortality risk than children of mothers who have low fertility, even after adjusting for available confounders. With each unit increase in birth order, a larger proportion of births at the population level belongs to mothers with these adverse characteristics correlated with high fertility. Hence it appears as if mortality rates go up with increasing parity, but not for physiological reasons.

Geographical Detector-Based Risk Assessment of the Under-Five Mortality in the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, China

PubMed Central

Hu, Yi; Wang, Jinfeng; Li, Xiaohong; Ren, Dan; Zhu, Jun

2011-01-01

On 12 May, 2008, a devastating earthquake registering 8.0 on the Richter scale occurred in Sichuan Province, China, taking tens of thousands of lives and destroying the homes of millions of people. Many of the deceased were children, particular children less than five years old who were more vulnerable to such a huge disaster than the adult. In order to obtain information specifically relevant to further researches and future preventive measures, potential risk factors associated with earthquake-related child mortality need to be identified. We used four geographical detectors (risk detector, factor detector, ecological detector, and interaction detector) based on spatial variation analysis of some potential factors to assess their effects on the under-five mortality. It was found that three factors are responsible for child mortality: earthquake intensity, collapsed house, and slope. The study, despite some limitations, has important implications for both researchers and policy makers. PMID:21738660

Geographical detector-based risk assessment of the under-five mortality in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, China.

PubMed

Hu, Yi; Wang, Jinfeng; Li, Xiaohong; Ren, Dan; Zhu, Jun

2011-01-01

On 12 May, 2008, a devastating earthquake registering 8.0 on the Richter scale occurred in Sichuan Province, China, taking tens of thousands of lives and destroying the homes of millions of people. Many of the deceased were children, particular children less than five years old who were more vulnerable to such a huge disaster than the adult. In order to obtain information specifically relevant to further researches and future preventive measures, potential risk factors associated with earthquake-related child mortality need to be identified. We used four geographical detectors (risk detector, factor detector, ecological detector, and interaction detector) based on spatial variation analysis of some potential factors to assess their effects on the under-five mortality. It was found that three factors are responsible for child mortality: earthquake intensity, collapsed house, and slope. The study, despite some limitations, has important implications for both researchers and policy makers.

The quest for equity in Latin America: a comparative analysis of the health care reforms in Brazil and Colombia

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Introduction Brazil and Colombia have pursued extensive reforms of their health care systems in the last couple of decades. The purported goals of such reforms were to improve access, increase efficiency and reduce health inequities. Notwithstanding their common goals, each country sought a very different pathway to achieve them. While Brazil attempted to reestablish a greater level of State control through a public national health system, Colombia embraced market competition under an employer-based social insurance scheme. This work thus aims to shed some light onto why they pursued divergent strategies and what that has meant in terms of health outcomes. Methods A critical review of the literature concerning equity frameworks, as well as the health care reforms in Brazil and Colombia was conducted. Then, the shortfall inequality values of crude mortality rate, infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and life expectancy for the period 1960-2005 were calculated for both countries. Subsequently, bivariate and multivariate linear regression analyses were performed and controlled for possibly confounding factors. Results When controlling for the underlying historical time trend, both countries appear to have experienced a deceleration of the pace of improvements in the years following the reforms, for all the variables analyzed. In the case of Colombia, some of the previous gains in under-five mortality rate and crude mortality rate were, in fact, reversed. Conclusions Neither reform seems to have had a decisive positive impact on the health outcomes analyzed for the defined time period of this research. This, in turn, may be a consequence of both internal characteristics of the respective reforms and external factors beyond the direct control of health reformers. Among the internal characteristics: underfunding, unbridled decentralization and inequitable access to care seem to have been the main constraints. Conversely, international economic adversities, high levels of rural and urban violence, along with entrenched income inequalities seem to have accounted for the highest burden among external factors. PMID:22296659

Estimates of performance in the rate of decline of under-five mortality for 113 low- and middle-income countries, 1970-2010.

PubMed

Verguet, Stéphane; Jamison, Dean T

2014-03-01

BACKGROUND; Measuring country performance in health has focused on assessing predicted vs observed levels of outcomes, an indicator that varies slowly over time. An alternative is to measure performance in terms of the rate of change in how a selected outcome compares to what would be expected given contextual determinants. Rates of change in health indicators can prove more sensitive than levels to changes in social, intersectoral or health policy context. It is thus similar to the growth rate of gross domestic product in the economic context. We assess performance in the rate of change (decline) of under-five mortality for 113 low- and middle-income countries. For 1970-2010, we study the evolution in rates of decline of under-five mortality. For each decade, we define performance as the average of the difference between the observed rate of decline and a rate of decline predicted by a model controlling for the contextual factors of income, female education levels, decade and geographical location. In the 1970s, the top performer in the rate of decline of under-five mortality was Costa Rica. In the 2000s, the top performer was Turkey. Overall, performance in rates of decline correlated little with performance in levels of under-five mortality. A major transition in performance between decades suggests a change in underlying determinants and we report the magnitude of these transitions. For example, heavily AIDS impacted countries, such as Botswana, experienced major drops in performance between the 1980s and the 1990s and some, including Botswana, experienced major compensatory improvements between the 1990s and the 2000s. Rate-based measures of country performance in health provide a starting point for assessments of the importance of health system, social and intersectoral determinants of performance.

Association between community management of pneumonia and diarrhoea in high-burden countries and the decline in under-five mortality rates: an ecological analysis.

PubMed

Boschi-Pinto, Cynthia; Dilip, Thandassery Ramachandran; Costello, Anthony

2017-02-14

The objective of the paper is to explore if the adoption of national policies to use community-based health providers for the management of pneumonia and diarrhoea is associated with the decline in under-five mortality, including achievement of the Millennium Development Goal (MDG)4 target, in high-burden countries. This country level analysis covers 75 high-burden low-income and middle-income countries which accounted for 98% of the 5.9 million global under-five deaths in 2015. One-fourth of these deaths were due to pneumonia and diarrhoea. χ 2 tests and multiple regression analysis were used to examine the association between reduction in under-five mortality rates and community case management of pneumonia and diarrhoea by adjusting for the influence of other possible determinants. No patient or population interviewed/examined for this analysis. Countries were the unit of analysis. Community case management (CCM) of pneumonia and diarrhoea policies. Changes in under-five mortality rates over time. Countries that had adopted both CCM policies were three times more likely to achieve the MDG4 target than countries that did not have both policies in place. This association was further confirmed by the multivariate analysis (β-coefficient=10.4; 95% CI 2.4 to 18.5; p value=0.012). There is a statistically significant association between adoption of CCM policies for treatment of pneumonia and diarrhoea and the rate of decline in child mortality levels. It is important to promote CCM in countries lagging behind to achieve the new target of 25 or fewer deaths per 1000 live births by 2030. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Multidimensional Poverty and Child Survival in India

PubMed Central

Mohanty, Sanjay K.

2011-01-01

Background Though the concept of multidimensional poverty has been acknowledged cutting across the disciplines (among economists, public health professionals, development thinkers, social scientists, policy makers and international organizations) and included in the development agenda, its measurement and application are still limited. Objectives and Methodology Using unit data from the National Family and Health Survey 3, India, this paper measures poverty in multidimensional space and examine the linkages of multidimensional poverty with child survival. The multidimensional poverty is measured in the dimension of knowledge, health and wealth and the child survival is measured with respect to infant mortality and under-five mortality. Descriptive statistics, principal component analyses and the life table methods are used in the analyses. Results The estimates of multidimensional poverty are robust and the inter-state differentials are large. While infant mortality rate and under-five mortality rate are disproportionately higher among the abject poor compared to the non-poor, there are no significant differences in child survival among educationally, economically and health poor at the national level. State pattern in child survival among the education, economical and health poor are mixed. Conclusion Use of multidimensional poverty measures help to identify abject poor who are unlikely to come out of poverty trap. The child survival is significantly lower among abject poor compared to moderate poor and non-poor. We urge to popularize the concept of multiple deprivations in research and program so as to reduce poverty and inequality in the population. PMID:22046384

Addressing inequity to achieve the maternal and child health millennium development goals: looking beyond averages.

PubMed

Ruhago, George M; Ngalesoni, Frida N; Norheim, Ole F

2012-12-27

Inequity in access to and use of child and maternal health interventions is impeding progress towards the maternal and child health Millennium Development Goals. This study explores the potential health gains and equity impact if a set of priority interventions for mothers and under fives were scaled up to reach national universal coverage targets for MDGs in Tanzania. We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate potential reductions in maternal and child mortality and the number of lives saved across wealth quintiles and between rural and urban settings. High impact maternal and child health interventions were modelled for a five-year scale up, by linking intervention coverage, effectiveness and cause of mortality using data from Tanzania. Concentration curves were drawn and the concentration index estimated to measure the equity impact of the scale up. In the poorest population quintiles in Tanzania, the lives of more than twice as many mothers and under-fives were likely to be saved, compared to the richest quintile. Scaling up coverage to equal levels across quintiles would reduce inequality in maternal and child mortality from a pro rich concentration index of -0.11 (maternal) and -0.12 (children) to a more equitable concentration index of -0,03 and -0.03 respectively. In rural areas, there would likely be an eight times greater reduction in maternal deaths than in urban areas and a five times greater reduction in child deaths than in urban areas. Scaling up priority maternal and child health interventions to equal levels would potentially save far more lives in the poorest populations, and would accelerate equitable progress towards maternal and child health MDGs.

Addressing inequity to achieve the maternal and child health millennium development goals: looking beyond averages

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Inequity in access to and use of child and maternal health interventions is impeding progress towards the maternal and child health Millennium Development Goals. This study explores the potential health gains and equity impact if a set of priority interventions for mothers and under fives were scaled up to reach national universal coverage targets for MDGs in Tanzania. Methods We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate potential reductions in maternal and child mortality and the number of lives saved across wealth quintiles and between rural and urban settings. High impact maternal and child health interventions were modelled for a five-year scale up, by linking intervention coverage, effectiveness and cause of mortality using data from Tanzania. Concentration curves were drawn and the concentration index estimated to measure the equity impact of the scale up. Results In the poorest population quintiles in Tanzania, the lives of more than twice as many mothers and under-fives were likely to be saved, compared to the richest quintile. Scaling up coverage to equal levels across quintiles would reduce inequality in maternal and child mortality from a pro rich concentration index of −0.11 (maternal) and −0.12 (children) to a more equitable concentration index of −0,03 and −0.03 respectively. In rural areas, there would likely be an eight times greater reduction in maternal deaths than in urban areas and a five times greater reduction in child deaths than in urban areas. Conclusions Scaling up priority maternal and child health interventions to equal levels would potentially save far more lives in the poorest populations, and would accelerate equitable progress towards maternal and child health MDGs. PMID:23270489

Stagnant Neonatal Mortality and Persistent Health Inequality in Middle-Income Countries: A Case Study of the Philippines

PubMed Central

Kraft, Aleli D.; Nguyen, Kim-Huong; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Hodge, Andrew

2013-01-01

Background The probability of survival through childhood continues to be unequal in middle-income countries. This study uses data from the Philippines to assess trends in the prevalence and distribution of child mortality and to evaluate the country’s socioeconomic-related child health inequality. Methodology Using data from four Demographic and Health Surveys we estimated levels and trends of neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality from 1990 to 2007. Mortality estimates at national and subnational levels were produced using both direct and indirect methods. Concentration indices were computed to measure child health inequality by wealth status. Multivariate regression analyses were used to assess the contribution of interventions and socioeconomic factors to wealth-related inequality. Findings Despite substantial reductions in national under-five and infant mortality rates in the early 1990s, the rates of declines have slowed in recent years and neonatal mortality rates remain stubbornly high. Substantial variations across urban-rural, regional, and wealth equity-markers are evident, and suggest that the gaps between the best and worst performing sub-populations will either be maintained or widen in the future. Of the variables tested, recent wealth-related inequalities are found to be strongly associated with social factors (e.g. maternal education), regional location, and access to health services, such as facility-based delivery. Conclusion The Philippines has achieved substantial progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4, but this success masks substantial inequalities and stagnating neonatal mortality trends. This analysis supports a focus on health interventions of high quality – that is, not just facility-based delivery, but delivery by trained staff at well-functioning facilities and supported by a strong referral system – to re-start the long term decline in neonatal mortality and to reduce persistent within-country inequalities in child health. PMID:23308278

[Impact of health services, sanitation and literacy in the mortality of children under 5 years of age

PubMed

Gutiérrez, G; Reyes, H; Fernández, S; Pérez, L; Pérez-Cuevas, R; Guiscafré, H

1999-01-01

To analyze differences of the impact of health care services, sanitation and literacy on the mortality rates of children under five years of age, in two Mexican states with marked socioeconomic differences: Chiapas and Nuevo Leon. The study design was ecologic, based on a retrospective analysis of data published by the Health Ministry (Secretaría de Salud), National Institute of Statistics, Geography and Informatics (Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática) and the National Population Council (Consejo Nacional de Población), on the tendencies of mortality among children under five years and on the changes of selected indicators corresponding to the period 1990-1997. ecologic study. This was based on a retrospective analysis of data published by Secretaría de Salud, Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática and Consejo Nacional de Población, about the tendencies of mortality among children under five years, and about the changes of selected indicators. The analysis was carried out in the period comprised between 1990-1997. For both states the registered variations were calculated and the trends were determined through analysis of simple linear regression; the independent variable corresponded to the study years. Partial correlation analysis between the various mortality trends studies and between and the selected indicators, were calculated. During the studied period there was a steady decline of children mortality, which was more marked in Chiapas. In both entities, this decrease was closely related to the decline in mortality due to acute diarrhea, and also correlated with a descent in measles and acute respiratory infections. In Chiapas, the indicators which correlated more significantly with this decline in mortality were vaccination coverage and literacy. In Nuevo Leon, the indicators with greater correlation were the increase in the number of nurses, of lodgings with piped water and vaccination coverage. During the analyzed period, the mortality rate of children under five years of age decreased in the states of Chiapas and Nuevo Leon. To sustain or accelerate the decline in childhood mortality it is mandatory to continue with the currently implemented programs, and in Chiapas, and similar states, to increase the available infrastructure to provide health care.

The decline in child mortality: a reappraisal.

PubMed Central

Ahmad, O. B.; Lopez, A. D.; Inoue, M.

2000-01-01

The present paper examines, describes and documents country-specific trends in under-five mortality rates (i.e., mortality among children under five years of age) in the 1990s. Our analysis updates previous studies by UNICEF, the World Bank and the United Nations. It identifies countries and WHO regions where sustained improvement has occurred and those where setbacks are evident. A consistent series of estimates of under-five mortality rate is provided and an indication is given of historical trends during the period 1950-2000 for both developed and developing countries. It is estimated that 10.5 million children aged 0-4 years died in 1999, about 2.2 million or 17.5% fewer than a decade earlier. On average about 15% of newborn children in Africa are expected to die before reaching their fifth birthday. The corresponding figures for many other parts of the developing world are in the range 3-8% and that for Europe is under 2%. During the 1990s the decline in child mortality decelerated in all the WHO regions except the Western Pacific but there is no widespread evidence of rising child mortality rates. At the country level there are exceptions in southern Africa where the prevalence of HIV is extremely high and in Asia where a few countries are beset by economic difficulties. The slowdown in the rate of decline is of particular concern in Africa and South-East Asia because it is occurring at relatively high levels of mortality, and in countries experiencing severe economic dislocation. As the HIV/AIDS epidemic continues in Africa, particularly southern Africa, and in parts of Asia, further reductions in child mortality become increasingly unlikely until substantial progress in controlling the spread of HIV is achieved. PMID:11100613

Reducing diarrhoea deaths in South Africa: costs and effects of scaling up essential interventions to prevent and treat diarrhoea in under-five children.

PubMed

Chola, Lumbwe; Michalow, Julia; Tugendhaft, Aviva; Hofman, Karen

2015-04-17

Diarrhoea is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in South African children, accounting for approximately 20% of under-five deaths. Though progress has been made in scaling up multiple interventions to reduce diarrhoea in the last decade, challenges still remain. In this paper, we model the cost and impact of scaling up 13 interventions to prevent and treat childhood diarrhoea in South Africa. Modelling was done using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). Using 2014 as the baseline, intervention coverage was increased from 2015 until 2030. Three scale up scenarios were compared: by 2030, 1) coverage of all interventions increased by ten percentage points; 2) intervention coverage increased by 20 percentage points; 3) and intervention coverage increased to 99%. The model estimates 13 million diarrhoea cases at baseline. Scaling up intervention coverage averted between 3 million and 5.3 million diarrhoea cases. In 2030, diarrhoeal deaths are expected to reduce from an estimated 5,500 in 2014 to 2,800 in scenario one, 1,400 in scenario two and 100 in scenario three. The additional cost of implementing all 13 interventions will range from US$510 million (US$9 per capita) to US$960 million (US$18 per capita), of which the health system costs range between US$40 million (less than US$1 per capita) and US$170 million (US$3 per capita). Scaling up 13 essential interventions could have a substantial impact on reducing diarrhoeal deaths in South African children, which would contribute toward reducing child mortality in the post-MDG era. Preventive measures are key and the government should focus on improving water, sanitation and hygiene. The investments required to achieve these results seem feasible considering current health expenditure.

Does access to improved sanitation reduce childhood diarrhea in rural India?

PubMed

Kumar, Santosh; Vollmer, Sebastian

2013-04-01

Almost nine million children under 5 years of age die every year. Diarrhea is considered to be the second leading cause of under-five mortality in developing countries. About one out of five deaths is caused by diarrhea. In this paper, we use the newly available data set District Level Household Survey 3 to quantify the impact of access to improved sanitation on diarrheal morbidity for children less than 5 years of age in India. Using propensity score matching, we find that access to improved sanitation reduces the risk of contracting diarrhea by 2.2 percentage points. There is considerable heterogeneity in the impacts of improved sanitation. We find statistically insignificant treatment effects for children in low or middle socioeconomic status households and for girls; however, boys and children in high socioeconomic status households experienced economically significant treatment effects. The magnitude of the treatment effect differs largely by hygiene behavior. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Direct estimates of cause-specific mortality fractions and rates of under-five deaths in the northern and southern regions of Nigeria by verbal autopsy interview.

PubMed

Adewemimo, Adeyinka; Kalter, Henry D; Perin, Jamie; Koffi, Alain K; Quinley, John; Black, Robert E

2017-01-01

Nigeria's under-five mortality rate is the eighth highest in the world. Identifying the causes of under-five deaths is crucial to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3 by 2030 and improving child survival. National and international bodies collaborated in this study to provide the first ever direct estimates of the causes of under-five mortality in Nigeria. Verbal autopsy interviews were conducted of a representative sample of 986 neonatal and 2,268 1-59 month old deaths from 2008 to 2013 identified by the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Cause of death was assigned by physician coding and computerized expert algorithms arranged in a hierarchy. National and regional estimates of age distributions, mortality rates and cause proportions, and zonal- and age-specific mortality fractions and rates for leading causes of death were evaluated. More under-fives and 1-59 month olds in the South, respectively, died as neonates (N = 24.1%, S = 32.5%, p<0.001) and at younger ages (p<0.001) than in the North. The leading causes of neonatal and 1-59 month mortality, respectively, were sepsis, birth injury/asphyxia and neonatal pneumonia, and malaria, diarrhea and pneumonia. The preterm delivery (N = 1.2%, S = 3.7%, p = 0.042), pneumonia (N = 15.0%, S = 21.6%, p = 0.004) and malaria (N = 34.7%, S = 42.2%, p = 0.009) fractions were higher in the South, with pneumonia and malaria focused in the South East and South South; while the diarrhea fraction was elevated in the North (N = 24.8%, S = 13.2%, p<0.001). However, the diarrhea, pneumonia and malaria mortality rates were all higher in the North, respectively, by 222.9% (Z = -10.9, p = 0.000), 27.6% (Z = -2.3, p = 0.020) and 50.6% (Z = -5.7, p = 0.000), with the greatest excesses in older children. The findings support that there is an epidemiological transition ongoing in southern Nigeria, suggest the way forward to a similar transition in the North, and can help guide maternal, neonatal and child health programming and their regional and zonal foci within the country.

Direct estimates of cause-specific mortality fractions and rates of under-five deaths in the northern and southern regions of Nigeria by verbal autopsy interview

PubMed Central

Adewemimo, Adeyinka; Perin, Jamie; Koffi, Alain K.; Quinley, John; Black, Robert E.

2017-01-01

Nigeria’s under-five mortality rate is the eighth highest in the world. Identifying the causes of under-five deaths is crucial to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3 by 2030 and improving child survival. National and international bodies collaborated in this study to provide the first ever direct estimates of the causes of under-five mortality in Nigeria. Verbal autopsy interviews were conducted of a representative sample of 986 neonatal and 2,268 1–59 month old deaths from 2008 to 2013 identified by the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Cause of death was assigned by physician coding and computerized expert algorithms arranged in a hierarchy. National and regional estimates of age distributions, mortality rates and cause proportions, and zonal- and age-specific mortality fractions and rates for leading causes of death were evaluated. More under-fives and 1–59 month olds in the South, respectively, died as neonates (N = 24.1%, S = 32.5%, p<0.001) and at younger ages (p<0.001) than in the North. The leading causes of neonatal and 1–59 month mortality, respectively, were sepsis, birth injury/asphyxia and neonatal pneumonia, and malaria, diarrhea and pneumonia. The preterm delivery (N = 1.2%, S = 3.7%, p = 0.042), pneumonia (N = 15.0%, S = 21.6%, p = 0.004) and malaria (N = 34.7%, S = 42.2%, p = 0.009) fractions were higher in the South, with pneumonia and malaria focused in the South East and South South; while the diarrhea fraction was elevated in the North (N = 24.8%, S = 13.2%, p<0.001). However, the diarrhea, pneumonia and malaria mortality rates were all higher in the North, respectively, by 222.9% (Z = -10.9, p = 0.000), 27.6% (Z = -2.3, p = 0.020) and 50.6% (Z = -5.7, p = 0.000), with the greatest excesses in older children. The findings support that there is an epidemiological transition ongoing in southern Nigeria, suggest the way forward to a similar transition in the North, and can help guide maternal, neonatal and child health programming and their regional and zonal foci within the country. PMID:28562611

Malaria morbidity and mortality trends in Manicaland province, Zimbabwe, 2005-2014.

PubMed

Mutsigiri, Faith; Mafaune, Patron Trish; Mungati, More; Shambira, Gerald; Bangure, Donewell; Juru, Tsitsi; Gombe, Notion Tafara; Tshimanga, Mufuta

2017-01-01

Zimbabwe targets reducing malaria incidence from 22/1000 in 2012 to 10/1000 by 2017, and malaria deaths to near zero by 2017. As the country moves forward with the malaria elimination efforts, it is crucial to monitor trends in malaria morbidity and mortality in the affected areas. In 2013, Manicaland Province contributed 51% of all malaria cases and 35% of all malaria deaths in Zimbabwe. This analysis describes the trends in malaria incidence, case fatality and malaria outpatient workload compared to the general outpatient workload. We analyzed routinely captured malaria data in Manicaland Province for the period 2005 to 2014. Epi Info version 7 was used to calculate chi-square trends for significance and Microsoft Excel was used to generate graphs. Permission to analyze the data was sought and granted by the Provincial Medical Directorate Institutional Review Board of Manicaland and the Health Studies office. Malaria morbidity data for the period 2005-2014 was reviewed and a total of 947,462 cases were confirmed during this period. However, malaria mortality data was only available for the period 2011-2014 and cumulatively 696 deaths were reported. Malaria incidence increased from 4.4/1,000 persons in 2005 to 116.3/1,000 persons in 2014 (p<0.001). The incidence was higher among females compared to males (p-trend<0.001) and among the above five years age group compared to the under-fives (p-trend<0.001). The proportion of all Outpatient Department attendances that were malaria cases increased 30 fold from 0.3% in 2005 to 9.1% in 2014 (p-trend<0.001). The Case Fatality Rate also increased 2-fold from 0.05 in 2011 to 0.1 in 2014 (p-trend<0.001). Despite current malaria control strategies, the morbidity and mortality of malaria increased over the period under review. There is need for further strengthening of malaria control interventions to reduce the burden of the disease.

Linking mortuary data improves vital statistics on cause of death of children under five years in the Western Cape Province of South Africa.

PubMed

Groenewald, Pam; Bradshaw, Debbie; Neethling, Ian; Martin, Lorna J; Dempers, Johan; Morden, Erna; Zinyakatira, Nesbert; Coetzee, David

2016-01-01

Reducing child mortality requires good information on its causes. Whilst South African vital registration data have improved, the quality of cause-of-death data remains inadequate. To improve this, data from death certificates were linked with information from forensic mortuaries in Western Cape Province. A local mortality surveillance system was established in 2007 by the Western Cape Health Department to improve data quality. Cause-of-death data were captured from copies of death notification forms collected at Department of Home Affairs Offices. Using unique identifiers, additional forensic mortuary data were linked with mortality surveillance system records. Causes of death were coded to the ICD-10 classification. Causes of death in children under five were compared with those from vital registration data for 2011. Cause-of-death data were markedly improved with additional data from forensic mortuaries. The proportion of ill-defined causes was halved (25-12%), and leading cause rankings changed. Lower respiratory tract infections moved above prematurity to rank first, accounting for 20.8% of deaths and peaking in infants aged 1-3 months. Only 11% of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections occurred in hospital, resulting in 86% being certified in forensic mortuaries. Road traffic deaths increased from 1.1-3.1% (27-75) and homicides from 3 to 28. The quality and usefulness of cause-of-death information for children in the WC was enhanced by linking mortuary and vital registration data. Given the death profile, interventions are required to prevent and manage LRTI, diarrhoea and injuries and to reduce neonatal deaths. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Role of Antidiarrhoeal Drugs as Adjunctive Therapies for Acute Diarrhoea in Children

PubMed Central

Faure, Christophe

2013-01-01

Acute diarrhoea is a leading cause of child mortality in developing countries. Principal pathogens include Escherichia coli, rotaviruses, and noroviruses. 90% of diarrhoeal deaths are attributable to inadequate sanitation. Acute diarrhoea is the second leading cause of overall childhood mortality and accounts for 18% of deaths among children under five. In 2004 an estimated 1.5 million children died from diarrhoea, with 80% of deaths occurring before the age of two. Treatment goals are to prevent dehydration and nutritional damage and to reduce duration and severity of diarrhoeal episodes. The recommended therapeutic regimen is to provide oral rehydration solutions (ORS) and to continue feeding. Although ORS effectively mitigates dehydration, it has no effect on the duration, severity, or frequency of diarrhoeal episodes. Adjuvant therapy with micronutrients, probiotics, or antidiarrhoeal agents may thus be useful. The WHO recommends the use of zinc tablets in association with ORS. The ESPGHAN/ESPID treatment guidelines consider the use of racecadotril, diosmectite, or probiotics as possible adjunctive therapy to ORS. Only racecadotril and diosmectite reduce stool output, but no treatment has yet been shown to reduce hospitalisation rate or mortality. Appropriate management with validated treatments may help reduce the health and economic burden of acute diarrhoea in children worldwide. PMID:23533446

Social inequalities in fatal childhood accidents and assaults: England and Wales, 2001-03.

PubMed

Siegler, Veronique; Al-Hamad, Alaa; Blane, David

2010-01-01

This article presents age-specific mortality rates of children for selected causes of accidents and assault using the National Statistics Socio-economic Classification (NS-SEC). The study is an analysis of the social inequalities in fatal childhood accidents and assault at the start of the 21st century. It aims to identify the causes and age groups for which these inequalities are the widest. In order to classify children by NS-SEC, the most advantaged class of the biological or adoptive parents was used. Death registrations provided the number of deaths from accidents and assault for children aged from 28 days to 15 years, in England and Wales, between 2001 and 2003. The population of children by NS-SEC and age group was obtained from the 2001 Census. Age-specific mortality rates were estimated. Inequalities were measured using socio-economic gradients in mortality. There were wide social inequalities in fatal accidents and assaults for children aged between 28 days and 15 years. The overall mortality rate in the routine class was 64 per million children aged up to 15, 4.5 times the rate of children with parents in the higher managerial and professional class. The greatest inequalities in accidental mortality for children in that age group were observed for fire and pedestrian accidents, followed by accidental suffocation. Infants at least 28 days but less than one year were subject to the widest inequalities of all age groups in fatal accidents and assault. The highest mortality rate in this study resulted from assault on babies whose parents could not be classified by occupation. Pedestrian and other transport accidents were the greatest causes of death for children between 5 and 15 years old. Inequalities were much larger for pedestrian than for other transport accidents for children aged 14 years and under. The leading cause of death for children aged less than five years was suffocation, followed by drowning and exposure to fire/hot substances. In that age group, the risk of death from exposure to fire was significantly higher for children whose parents could not be classified by occupation. Substantial social inequalities in childhood mortality from accidents and assault existed in 2001-03. Reducing the large inequalities between the most advantaged class and the most disadvantaged group in the non-occupied category, would make a substantial impact on childhood deaths from accidents and assaults. If the mortality rates in the latter group were the same as in the most advantaged managerial and professional class, deaths of infants of at least 28 days but less than one year, from assault would be reduced by 62 per cent. Deaths from fire, accidental suffocation and pedestrian accidents in the under fives would be reduced by 50 per cent, 25 per cent and 28 per cent respectively. Deaths in pedestrian and transport accidents for children aged 5-15 would be reduced by 25 per cent and 16 per cent respectively.

Neo-liberal economic practices and population health: a cross-national analysis, 1980-2004.

PubMed

Tracy, Melissa; Kruk, Margaret E; Harper, Christine; Galea, Sandro

2010-04-01

Although there has been substantial debate and research concerning the economic impact of neo-liberal practices, there is a paucity of research about the potential relation between neo-liberal economic practices and population health. We assessed the extent to which neo-liberal policies and practices are associated with population health at the national level. We collected data on 119 countries between 1980 and 2004. We measured neo-liberalism using the Fraser Institute's Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) Index, which gives an overall score as well as a score for each of five different aspects of neo-liberal economic practices: (1) size of government, (2) legal structure and security of property rights, (3) access to sound money, (4) freedom to exchange with foreigners and (5) regulation of credit, labor and business. Our measure of population health was under-five mortality. We controlled for potential mediators (income distribution, social capital and openness of political institutions) and confounders (female literacy, total population, rural population, fertility, gross domestic product per capita and time period). In longitudinal multivariable analyses, we found that the EFW index did not have an effect on child mortality but that two of its components: improved security of property rights and access to sound money were associated with lower under-five mortality (p = 0.017 and p = 0.024, respectively). When stratifying the countries by level of income, less regulation of credit, labor and business was associated with lower under-five mortality in high-income countries (p = 0.001). None of the EFW components were significantly associated with under-five mortality in low-income countries. This analysis suggests that the concept of 'neo-liberalism' is not a monolithic entity in its relation to health and that some 'neo-liberal' policies are consistent with improved population health. Further work is needed to corroborate or refute these findings.

[Mortality by avoidable causes in preschool children].

PubMed

Lurán, Albenia; López, Elizabeth; Pinilla, Consuelo; Sierra, Pedro

2009-03-01

The infant-mortality rate in children aged less than five is an indicator of the general state of health of a population and directly reflects the quality of life and the level of socio-economic development of a country. Avoidable mortality was assessed in preschool children as a reflection of Colombia quality of life and socio-economic development. Mortality trends were analyzed in preschool children aged less than five throughout Colombia during a 20-year period from 1985-2004, and focused on mortality causes that were considered avoidable. This was a descriptive, retrospective study; the sources of information were Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística records of deaths and population projections 1985-2004. Mortality rate due to avoidable causes was the statistical indicator. In children aged less than one, the reducible mortality due to "early diagnosis and medical treatment" occupied the first place amongst causes for every year of the study period and accounted for more than 50% of recorded deaths. In children aged 1 to 4, the category "other important reducible causes" was associated with 40% of recorded deaths-deaths due mainly to respiratory diseases. Over the 20-year period, the avoidable mortality rate decreased by 34% in children aged less than one, in children 1-4, it decreased by 23%. Although the infant-mortality rate in preschool children was reduced, the decrease was small, from 80% to 77%. The situation requires more analysis with respect to strategies in public health, particularly concerning preventable diseases of the infancy.

Health transition in Brazil: regional variations and divergence/convergence in mortality.

PubMed

Borges, Gabriel Mendes

2017-08-21

This study analyzes the main characteristics of the health transition in Brazil and its five major regions, using a framework that accounts for regional inequalities in mortality trends. The regional mortality divergence/convergence process is described and discussed by considering the specific contributions of age groups and causes of death in life expectancy variations. Results show that mortality change in Brazil has follow the epidemiologic transition theory to some extent during the period under analysis - for instance, the sharp decline in infant mortality in all regions (first from infectious and parasitic diseases and then from causes associated with the perinatal period) and the increase in the participation of chronic and degenerative diseases as the main cause of death. However, some features of Brazilian transition have not followed the linear and unidirectional pattern proposed by the epidemiologic transition theory, which helps to understand the periods of regional divergence in life expectancy, despite the long-term trends showing reducing regional inequalities. The emergence of HIV/AIDS, the persistence of relatively high levels of other infections and parasitic diseases, the regional differences in the unexpected mortality improvements from cardiovascular diseases, and the rapid and strong variations in mortality from external causes are some of the examples.

Child morbidity and mortality associated with alternative policy responses to the economic crisis in Brazil: A nationwide microsimulation study.

PubMed

Rasella, Davide; Basu, Sanjay; Hone, Thomas; Paes-Sousa, Romulo; Ocké-Reis, Carlos Octávio; Millett, Christopher

2018-05-01

Since 2015, a major economic crisis in Brazil has led to increasing poverty and the implementation of long-term fiscal austerity measures that will substantially reduce expenditure on social welfare programmes as a percentage of the country's GDP over the next 20 years. The Bolsa Família Programme (BFP)-one of the largest conditional cash transfer programmes in the world-and the nationwide primary healthcare strategy (Estratégia Saúde da Família [ESF]) are affected by fiscal austerity, despite being among the policy interventions with the strongest estimated impact on child mortality in the country. We investigated how reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF-compared to an alternative scenario where the level of social protection under these programmes is maintained-may affect the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and socioeconomic inequalities in child health in the country until 2030, the end date of the Sustainable Development Goals. We developed and validated a microsimulation model, creating a synthetic cohort of all 5,507 Brazilian municipalities for the period 2017-2030. This model was based on the longitudinal dataset and effect estimates from a previously published study that evaluated the effects of poverty, the BFP, and the ESF on child health. We forecast the economic crisis and the effect of reductions in BFP and ESF coverage due to current fiscal austerity on the U5MR, and compared this scenario with a scenario where these programmes maintain the levels of social protection by increasing or decreasing with the size of Brazil's vulnerable populations (policy response scenarios). We used fixed effects multivariate regression models including BFP and ESF coverage and accounting for secular trends, demographic and socioeconomic changes, and programme duration effects. With the maintenance of the levels of social protection provided by the BFP and ESF, in the most likely economic crisis scenario the U5MR is expected to be 8.57% (95% CI: 6.88%-10.24%) lower in 2030 than under fiscal austerity-a cumulative 19,732 (95% CI: 10,207-29,285) averted under-five deaths between 2017 and 2030. U5MRs from diarrhoea, malnutrition, and lower respiratory tract infections are projected to be 39.3% (95% CI: 36.9%-41.8%), 35.8% (95% CI: 31.5%-39.9%), and 8.5% (95% CI: 4.1%-12.0%) lower, respectively, in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF coverage, with 123,549 fewer under-five hospitalisations from all causes over the study period. Reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF will also disproportionately affect U5MR in the most vulnerable areas, with the U5MR in the poorest quintile of municipalities expected to be 11.0% (95% CI: 8.0%-13.8%) lower in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of social protection than under fiscal austerity, compared to no difference in the richest quintile. Declines in health inequalities over the last decade will also stop under a fiscal austerity scenario: the U5MR concentration index is expected to remain stable over the period 2017-2030, compared to a 13.3% (95% CI: 5.6%-21.8%) reduction under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of protection. Limitations of our analysis are the ecological nature of the study, uncertainty around future macroeconomic scenarios, and potential changes in other factors affecting child health. A wide range of sensitivity analyses were conducted to minimise these limitations. The implementation of fiscal austerity measures in Brazil can be responsible for substantively higher childhood morbidity and mortality than expected under maintenance of social protection-threatening attainment of Sustainable Development Goals for child health and reducing inequality.

Child morbidity and mortality associated with alternative policy responses to the economic crisis in Brazil: A nationwide microsimulation study

PubMed Central

Paes-Sousa, Romulo; Ocké-Reis, Carlos Octávio; Millett, Christopher

2018-01-01

Background Since 2015, a major economic crisis in Brazil has led to increasing poverty and the implementation of long-term fiscal austerity measures that will substantially reduce expenditure on social welfare programmes as a percentage of the country’s GDP over the next 20 years. The Bolsa Família Programme (BFP)—one of the largest conditional cash transfer programmes in the world—and the nationwide primary healthcare strategy (Estratégia Saúde da Família [ESF]) are affected by fiscal austerity, despite being among the policy interventions with the strongest estimated impact on child mortality in the country. We investigated how reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF—compared to an alternative scenario where the level of social protection under these programmes is maintained—may affect the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and socioeconomic inequalities in child health in the country until 2030, the end date of the Sustainable Development Goals. Methods and findings We developed and validated a microsimulation model, creating a synthetic cohort of all 5,507 Brazilian municipalities for the period 2017–2030. This model was based on the longitudinal dataset and effect estimates from a previously published study that evaluated the effects of poverty, the BFP, and the ESF on child health. We forecast the economic crisis and the effect of reductions in BFP and ESF coverage due to current fiscal austerity on the U5MR, and compared this scenario with a scenario where these programmes maintain the levels of social protection by increasing or decreasing with the size of Brazil’s vulnerable populations (policy response scenarios). We used fixed effects multivariate regression models including BFP and ESF coverage and accounting for secular trends, demographic and socioeconomic changes, and programme duration effects. With the maintenance of the levels of social protection provided by the BFP and ESF, in the most likely economic crisis scenario the U5MR is expected to be 8.57% (95% CI: 6.88%–10.24%) lower in 2030 than under fiscal austerity—a cumulative 19,732 (95% CI: 10,207–29,285) averted under-five deaths between 2017 and 2030. U5MRs from diarrhoea, malnutrition, and lower respiratory tract infections are projected to be 39.3% (95% CI: 36.9%–41.8%), 35.8% (95% CI: 31.5%–39.9%), and 8.5% (95% CI: 4.1%–12.0%) lower, respectively, in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF coverage, with 123,549 fewer under-five hospitalisations from all causes over the study period. Reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF will also disproportionately affect U5MR in the most vulnerable areas, with the U5MR in the poorest quintile of municipalities expected to be 11.0% (95% CI: 8.0%–13.8%) lower in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of social protection than under fiscal austerity, compared to no difference in the richest quintile. Declines in health inequalities over the last decade will also stop under a fiscal austerity scenario: the U5MR concentration index is expected to remain stable over the period 2017–2030, compared to a 13.3% (95% CI: 5.6%–21.8%) reduction under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of protection. Limitations of our analysis are the ecological nature of the study, uncertainty around future macroeconomic scenarios, and potential changes in other factors affecting child health. A wide range of sensitivity analyses were conducted to minimise these limitations. Conclusions The implementation of fiscal austerity measures in Brazil can be responsible for substantively higher childhood morbidity and mortality than expected under maintenance of social protection—threatening attainment of Sustainable Development Goals for child health and reducing inequality. PMID:29787574

Disparities in child mortality trends in two new states of India.

PubMed

Minnery, Mark; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Firth, Sonja; Nguyen, Kim-Huong; Hodge, Andrew

2013-08-27

India has the world's highest total number of under-five deaths of any nation. While progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4 has been documented at the state level, little information is available for greater disaggregation of child health markers within states. In 2000, new states were created within the country as a partial response to political pressures. State-level information on child health trends in the new states of Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand is scarce. To fill this gap, this article examines under-five and neonatal mortality across various equity markers within these two new states, pre-and post-split. Both direct and indirect estimation using pooled data from five available sources were undertaken. Inter-population disparities were evaluated by mortality data stratification of rural-urban location, ethnicity, wealth and districts. Both states experienced an overall reduction in under-five and neonatal mortality, however, this has stagnated post-2001 and various disparities persist. In cases where disparities have declined, such as between urban-rural populations and low- and high-income groups, this has been driven by modest declines within the disadvantaged groups (i.e. low-income rural households) and stagnation or worsening of outcomes within the advantaged groups. Indeed, rising trends in mortality are most prevalent in urban middle-income households. The results suggest that rural health improvements may have come at the expense of urban areas, where poor performance may be attributed to factors such as lack of access to quality private health facilities. In addition, the disparities may in part be associated with geographical access, traditional practices and district-level health resource allocation.

Introduction of a second dose of measles in national immunization program in India: a major step towards eradication.

PubMed

Verma, Ramesh; Khanna, Pardeep; Bairwa, Mohan; Chawla, Suraj; Prinja, Shankar; Rajput, Meena

2011-10-01

Measles is a highly infectious, acute respiratory illness that is caused by a virus of the genus Morbillivirus. The disease infects nearly 30 million children each year, and deaths usually occur from complications related to pneumonia, diarrhea and malnutrition. A systematic review of published Indian literature depicts the median case fatality ratio (CFR) of measles to be 1.6%. Through immunization, measles deaths dropped a remarkable 78% from 733,000 in 2000 to 164,000 in 2008. As of 2008, 192 of 193 Member States of WHO use 2 doses of measles vaccine in their national immunization programs, India being the only exception. The Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 aims to reduce by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015 the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) in the world. Per the draft comprehensive Multi Year Strategic Plan (cMYP, 2010–17) for immunization of India, the country aims to reduce measles-related mortality by 90% by 2013 when compared to 2000. As recommended by the National Technical Advisory Group on Immunization (NTAGI), the implementation strategy of the second dose of measles vaccine at the state level is determined by the underlying performance of the routine immunization program. The second dose in the national immunization schedule gives extra immunity against measles infection that renders children more susceptible to secondary pneumonia and diarrheal diseases, which are the primary causes of under-5 child mortality in India.

Community-based intervention packages facilitated by NGOs demonstrate plausible evidence for child mortality impact.

PubMed

Ricca, Jim; Kureshy, Nazo; LeBan, Karen; Prosnitz, Debra; Ryan, Leo

2014-03-01

Evidence exists that community-based intervention packages can have substantial child and newborn mortality impact, and may help more countries meet Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) targets. A non-governmental organization (NGO) project using such programming in Mozambique documented an annual decline in under-five mortality rate (U5MR) of 9.3% in a province in which Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data showed a 4.2% U5MR decline during the same period. To test the generalizability of this finding, the same analysis was applied to a group of projects funded by the US Agency for International Development. Projects supported implementation of community-based intervention packages aimed at increasing use of health services while improving preventive and home-care practices for children under five. All projects collect baseline and endline population coverage data for key child health interventions. Twelve projects fitted the inclusion criteria. U5MR decline was estimated by modelling these coverage changes in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) and comparing with concurrent measured DHS mortality data. Average coverage changes for all interventions exceeded average concurrent trends. When population coverage changes were modelled in LiST, they were estimated to give a child mortality improvement in the project area that exceeded concurrent secular trend in the subnational DHS region in 11 of 12 cases. The average improvement in modelled U5MR (5.8%) was more than twice the concurrent directly measured average decline (2.5%). NGO projects implementing community-based intervention packages appear to be effective in reducing child mortality in diverse settings. There is plausible evidence that they raised coverage for a variety of high-impact interventions and improved U5MR by more than twice the concurrent secular trend. All projects used community-based strategies that achieved frequent interpersonal contact for health behaviour change. Further study of the effectiveness and scalability of similar packages should be part of the effort to accelerate progress towards MDG 4.

Child mortality in the Democratic Republic of Congo: cross-sectional evidence of the effect of geographic location and prolonged conflict from a national household survey

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The child mortality rate is a good indicator of development. High levels of infectious diseases and high child mortality make the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) one of the most challenging environments for health development in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Recent conflicts in the eastern part of the country and bad governance have compounded the problem. This study aimed to examine province-level geographic variation in under-five mortality (U5M), accounting for individual- and household-level risk factors including environmental factors such as conflict. Methods Our analysis used the nationally representative cross-sectional household sample of 8,992 children under five in the 2007 DRC Demographic and Health Survey. In the survey year, 1,005 deaths among this group were observed. Information on U5M was aggregated to the 11 provinces, and a Bayesian geo-additive discrete-time survival mixed model was used to map the geographic distribution of under-five mortality rates (U5MRs) at the province level, accounting for observable and unobservable risk factors. Results The overall U5MR was 159 per 1,000 live births. Significant associations with risk of U5M were found for < 24 month birth interval [posterior odds ratio and 95% credible region: 1.14 (1.04, 1.26)], home birth [1.13 (1.01, 1.27)] and living with a single mother [1.16 (1.03, 1.33)]. Striking variation was also noted in the risk of U5M by province of residence, with the highest risk in Kasaï-Oriental, a non-conflict area of the DRC, and the lowest in the conflict area of North Kivu. Conclusion This study reveals clear geographic patterns in rates of U5M in the DRC and shows the potential role of individual child, household and environmental factors, which are unexplained by the ongoing conflict. The displacement of mothers to safer areas may explain the lower U5MR observed at the epicentre of the conflict in North Kivu, compared with rates in conflict-free areas. Overall, the U5M maps point to a lack of progress towards the Millennium Development Goal of reducing U5M by half by 2015. PMID:24649944

Child mortality in the Democratic Republic of Congo: cross-sectional evidence of the effect of geographic location and prolonged conflict from a national household survey.

PubMed

Kandala, Ngianga-Bakwin; Mandungu, Tumwaka P; Mbela, Kisumbula; Nzita, Kikhela P D; Kalambayi, Banza B; Kayembe, Kalambayi P; Emina, Jacques B O

2014-03-20

The child mortality rate is a good indicator of development. High levels of infectious diseases and high child mortality make the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) one of the most challenging environments for health development in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Recent conflicts in the eastern part of the country and bad governance have compounded the problem. This study aimed to examine province-level geographic variation in under-five mortality (U5M), accounting for individual- and household-level risk factors including environmental factors such as conflict. Our analysis used the nationally representative cross-sectional household sample of 8,992 children under five in the 2007 DRC Demographic and Health Survey. In the survey year, 1,005 deaths among this group were observed. Information on U5M was aggregated to the 11 provinces, and a Bayesian geo-additive discrete-time survival mixed model was used to map the geographic distribution of under-five mortality rates (U5MRs) at the province level, accounting for observable and unobservable risk factors. The overall U5MR was 159 per 1,000 live births. Significant associations with risk of U5M were found for <24 month birth interval [posterior odds ratio and 95% credible region: 1.14 (1.04, 1.26)], home birth [1.13 (1.01, 1.27)] and living with a single mother [1.16 (1.03, 1.33)]. Striking variation was also noted in the risk of U5M by province of residence, with the highest risk in Kasaï-Oriental, a non-conflict area of the DRC, and the lowest in the conflict area of North Kivu. This study reveals clear geographic patterns in rates of U5M in the DRC and shows the potential role of individual child, household and environmental factors, which are unexplained by the ongoing conflict. The displacement of mothers to safer areas may explain the lower U5MR observed at the epicentre of the conflict in North Kivu, compared with rates in conflict-free areas. Overall, the U5M maps point to a lack of progress towards the Millennium Development Goal of reducing U5M by half by 2015.

Child Health and Mortality

PubMed Central

Arifeen, Shams El

2008-01-01

Bangladesh is currently one of the very few countries in the world, which is on target for achieving the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 relating to child mortality. There have been very rapid reductions in mortality, especially in recent years and among children aged over one month. However, this rate of reduction may be difficult to sustain and may impede the achievement of MDG 4. Neonatal deaths now contribute substantially (57%) to overall mortality of children aged less than five years, and reductions in neonatal mortality are difficult to achieve and have been slow in Bangladesh. There are some interesting attributes of the mortality decline in Bangladesh. Mortality has declined faster among girls than among boys, but the poorest have not benefited from the reduction in mortality. There has also been a relative absence of a decline in mortality in urban areas. The age and cause of death pattern of under-five mortality indicate certain interventions that need to be scaled up rapidly and reach high coverage to achieve MDG 4 in Bangladesh. These include skilled attendance at delivery, postnatal care for the newborn, appropriate feeding of the young infant and child, and prevention and management of childhood infections. The latest (2007) Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey shows that Bangladesh has made sustained and remarkable progress in many areas of child health. More than 80% of children are receiving all vaccines. The use of oral rehydration solution for diarrhoea is high, and the coverage of vitamin A among children aged 9-59 months has been consistently increasing. However, poor quality of care, misperceptions regarding the need for care, and other social barriers contribute to low levels of care-seeking for illnesses of the newborns and children. Improvements in the health system are essential for removing these barriers, as are effective strategies to reach families and communities with targeted messages and information. Finally, there are substantial health-system challenges relating to the design and implementation, at scale, of interventions to reduce neonatal mortality. PMID:18831224

Trading Equality for Health? Evaluating the Trade-off and Institutional Hypotheses on Health Inequalities in the Global South.

PubMed

Sosnaud, Benjamin; Beckfield, Jason

2017-09-01

It has been suggested that as medicine advances and mortality declines, socioeconomic disparities in health outcomes will grow. Yet, most research on this topic uses data from affluent Western democracies, where mortality is declining in small increments. We argue that the Global South represents the ideal setting to study this issue in a context of rapid mortality decline. We evaluate two competing hypotheses: (1) there is a trade-off between population health and health inequality such that reductions in under-five mortality are linked to higher levels of social inequality in health; and (2) institutional interventions that improve under-five mortality, like the expansion of educational systems and public health expenditure, are associated with reductions in inequalities. We test these hypotheses using data on 1,369,050 births in 34 low-income countries in the Demographic and Health Surveys from 1995 to 2012. The results show little evidence of a health-for-equality trade-off and instead support the institutional hypothesis.

An analysis of the potential for achieving the fourth millennium development goal in SSA with domestic resources.

PubMed

O'Hare, Bernadette; Makuta, Innocent

2015-02-25

The importance of good health is reflected in the fact that more than half of the eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are aimed at improving health status. Goal 4 (MDG4) aims to reduce child mortality. The progress indicator for goal 4 is the under-five mortality rate (U5M), with a targeted reduction of two thirds by 2015 from 1990 levels. This paper seeks to compare the time (in years) Sub Saharan African (SSA) countries will take to reach their MDG4 target at the current rate of decline, and the time it could have taken to reach their target if domestic resources had not been lost through illicit financial flows, corruption and servicing of debt since 2000. We estimate the amount by which the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita would increase (in percentage terms) if losses of resource through illicit financial flows, corruption and debt servicing, were reduced. Using the income elasticity of U5M, a metric which reports the percentage change in U5M for a one percent change in GDP per capita, we estimate the potential gains in the annual reduction of the under-five mortality if these resource losses were reduced. At the current rate of reduction in U5M, nine countries out of this sample of 36 SSA countries (25%) will achieve their MDG4 target by 2015. In the absence of the leakages (IFF, corruption and debt service) 30 out of 36 (83%) would reach their MDG4 target by 2015 and all except one country, Zimbabwe would have achieved their MDG4 by 2017 (97%). In view of the uncertainty of the legitimacy of African debts we have also provided results where we excluded debt repayment from our analysis. Most countries would have met MDG4 target by curtailing these outflows. In order to release latent resources in SSA for development, action will be needed both by African countries and internationally. We consider that stemming these outflows, and thereby reducing the need for aid, can be achieved with a more transparent global financial system.

Under-5 mortality in 2851 Chinese counties, 1996–2012: a subnational assessment of achieving MDG 4 goals in China

PubMed Central

Wang, Yanping; Li, Xiaohong; Zhou, Maigeng; Luo, Shusheng; Liang, Juan; Liddell, Chelsea A; Coates, Matthew M; Gao, Yanqiu; Wang, Linhong; He, Chunhua; Kang, Chuyun; Liu, Shiwei; Dai, Li; Schumacher, Austin E; Fraser, Maya S; Wolock, Timothy M; Pain, Amanda; Levitz, Carly E; Singh, Lavanya; Coggeshall, Megan; Lind, Margaret; Li, Yichong; Li, Qi; Deng, Kui; Mu, Yi; Deng, Changfei; Yi, Ling; Liu, Zheng; Ma, Xia; Li, Hongtian; Mu, Dezhi; Zhu, Jun; Murray, Christopher J L; Wang, Haidong

2017-01-01

Summary Background In the past two decades, the under-5 mortality rate in China has fallen substantially, but progress with regards to the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 at the subnational level has not been quantified. We aimed to estimate under-5 mortality rates in mainland China for the years 1970 to 2012. Methods We estimated the under-5 mortality rate for 31 provinces in mainland China between 1970 and 2013 with data from censuses, surveys, surveillance sites, and disease surveillance points. We estimated under-5 mortality rates for 2851 counties in China from 1996 to 2012 with the reported child mortality numbers from the Annual Report System on Maternal and Child Health. We used a small area mortality estimation model, spatiotemporal smoothing, and Gaussian process regression to synthesise data and generate consistent provincial and county-level estimates. We compared progress at the county level with what was expected on the basis of income and educational attainment using an econometric model. We computed Gini coefficients to study the inequality of under-5 mortality rates across counties. Findings In 2012, the lowest provincial level under-5 mortality rate in China was about five per 1000 livebirths, lower than in Canada, New Zealand, and the USA. The highest provincial level under-5 mortality rate in China was higher than that of Bangladesh. 29 provinces achieved a decrease in under-5 mortality rates twice as fast as the MDG 4 target rate; only two provinces will not achieve MDG 4 by 2015. Although some counties in China have under-5 mortality rates similar to those in the most developed nations in 2012, some have similar rates to those recorded in Burkina Faso and Cameroon. Despite wide differences, the inter-county Gini coefficient has been decreasing. Improvement in maternal education and the economic boom have contributed to the fall in child mortality; more than 60% of the counties in China had rates of decline in under-5 mortality rates significantly faster than expected. Fast reduction in under-5 mortality rates have been recorded not only in the Han population, the dominant ethnic majority in China, but also in the minority populations. All top ten minority groups in terms of population sizes have experienced annual reductions in under-5 mortality rates faster than the MDG 4 target at 4·4%. Interpretation The reduction of under-5 mortality rates in China at the country, provincial, and county level is an extraordinary success story. Reductions of under-5 mortality rates faster than 8·8% (twice MDG 4 pace) are possible. Extremely rapid declines seem to be related to public policy in addition to socioeconomic progress. Lessons from successful counties should prove valuable for China to intensify efforts for those with unacceptably high under-5 mortality rates. Funding National “Twelfth Five-Year” Plan for Science and Technology Support, National Health and Family Planning Commission of The People’s Republic of China, Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University, the National Institute on Aging, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. PMID:26510780

Quantifying the impact of rising food prices on child mortality in India: a cross-district statistical analysis of the District Level Household Survey.

PubMed

Fledderjohann, Jasmine; Vellakkal, Sukumar; Khan, Zaky; Ebrahim, Shah; Stuckler, David

2016-04-01

Rates of child malnutrition and mortality in India remain high. We tested the hypothesis that rising food prices are contributing to India's slow progress in improving childhood survival. Using rounds 2 and 3 (2002-08) of the Indian District Level Household Survey, we calculated neonatal, infant and under-five mortality rates in 364 districts, and merged these with district-level food price data from the National Sample Survey Office. Multivariate models were estimated, stratified into 27 less deprived states and territories and 8 deprived states ('Empowered Action Groups'). Between 2002 and 2008, the real price of food in India rose by 11.7%. A 1% increase in total food prices was associated with a 0.49% increase in neonatal (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.13% to 0.85%), but not infant or under-five mortality rates. Disaggregating by type of food and level of deprivation, in the eight deprived states, we found an elevation in neonatal mortality rates of 0.33% for each 1% increase in the price of meat (95% CI: 0.06% to 0.60%) and 0.10% for a 1% increase in dairy (95% CI: 0.01% to 0.20%). We also detected an adverse association of the price of dairy with infant (b = 0.09%; 95% CI: 0.01% to 0.16%) and under-five mortality rates (b = 0.10%; 95% CI: 0.03% to 0.17%). These associations were not detected in less deprived states and territories. Rising food prices, particularly of high-protein meat and dairy products, were associated with worse child mortality outcomes. These adverse associations were concentrated in the most deprived states. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Quantifying the impact of rising food prices on child mortality in India: a cross-district statistical analysis of the District Level Household Survey

PubMed Central

Fledderjohann, Jasmine; Vellakkal, Sukumar; Khan, Zaky; Ebrahim, Shah; Stuckler, David

2016-01-01

Abstract Background: Rates of child malnutrition and mortality in India remain high. We tested the hypothesis that rising food prices are contributing to India’s slow progress in improving childhood survival. Methods : Using rounds 2 and 3 (2002—08) of the Indian District Level Household Survey, we calculated neonatal, infant and under-five mortality rates in 364 districts, and merged these with district-level food price data from the National Sample Survey Office. Multivariate models were estimated, stratified into 27 less deprived states and territories and 8 deprived states (‘Empowered Action Groups’). Results : Between 2002 and 2008, the real price of food in India rose by 11.7%. A 1% increase in total food prices was associated with a 0.49% increase in neonatal (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.13% to 0.85%), but not infant or under-five mortality rates. Disaggregating by type of food and level of deprivation, in the eight deprived states, we found an elevation in neonatal mortality rates of 0.33% for each 1% increase in the price of meat (95% CI: 0.06% to 0.60%) and 0.10% for a 1% increase in dairy (95% CI: 0.01% to 0.20%). We also detected an adverse association of the price of dairy with infant (b = 0.09%; 95% CI: 0.01% to 0.16%) and under-five mortality rates (b = 0.10%; 95% CI: 0.03% to 0.17%). These associations were not detected in less deprived states and territories. Conclusions: Rising food prices, particularly of high-protein meat and dairy products, were associated with worse child mortality outcomes. These adverse associations were concentrated in the most deprived states. PMID:27063607

The economics, financing and implementation of HIV treatment as prevention: what will it take to get there?

PubMed

Wilson, David; Taaffe, Jessica; Fraser-Hurt, Nicole; Gorgens, Marelize

2014-01-01

The 2013 Lancet Commission Report, Global Health 2035, rightly pointed out that we are at a unique place in history where a "grand convergence" of health initiatives to reduce both infectious diseases, and child and maternal mortality--diseases that still plague low income countries--would yield good returns in terms of development and health outcomes. This would also be a good economic investment. Such investments would support achieving health goals of reducing under-five (U5) mortality to 16 per 1000 live births, reducing deaths due to HIV/AIDS to 8 per 100,000 population, and reducing annual TB deaths to 4 per 100,000 population. Treatment as prevention (TasP) holds enormous potential in reducing HIV transmission, and morbidity and mortality associated with HIV/AIDS--and therefore contributing to Global Health 2035 goals. However, TasP requires large financial investments and poses significant implementation challenges. In this review, we discuss the potential effectiveness, financing and implementation of TasP. Overall, we conclude that TasP shows great promise as a cost-effective intervention to address the dual aims of reducing new HIV infections and reducing the global burden of HIV-related disease. Successful implementation will be no easy feat, though. The dramatic increases in the numbers of persons who need antiretroviral therapy (ART) under a TasP approach will pose enormous challenges at all stages of the HIV treatment cascade: HIV diagnosis, antiretroviral (ARV) initiation, ARV adherence and retention, and increased drug resistance with long-term enrolment on ART. Overcoming these implementation challenges will require targeted implementation, not focusing exclusively on TasP, most-at-risk population (MARP)-friendly services for key populations, integrating services, task shifting, more efficient programme management, balancing supply and demand, integration into universal health coverage efforts, demand creation, improved ART retention and adherence strategies, the use of incentives to improve HIV treatment outcomes and reduce unit costs, continued operational research and tapping into technological innovations.

The impact of prenatal care quality on neonatal, infant and child mortality in Zimbabwe: evidence from the demographic and health surveys.

PubMed

Makate, Marshall; Makate, Clifton

2017-04-01

The impact of the quality of prenatal care on child mortality outcomes has received less attention in sub-Saharan Africa. This study endeavoured to explore the effect of the quality of prenatal care and its individual components on neonatal, infant and under-five mortality. The empirical analysis uses data from the three most recent waves of the nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey for Zimbabwe conducted in 1999, 2005/06 and 2010/11. The results indicate that a one-unit increase in the quality of prenatal care lowers the prospect of neonatal, infant and under-five mortality by approximately 42.33, 30.86 and 28.65%, respectively. These findings remained roughly the same even after adjusting for potential mediating factors. Examining the effect of individual prenatal care components on child mortality revealed that women who receive information on possible complications arising during pregnancy are less liable to experience a neonatal death. Similarly, women who had blood pressure checks and tetanus immunizations were less likely to experience an infant or under-five death. We did not find any statistically meaningful impact on child mortality outcomes of blood and urine sample checks, iron tablet consumption, and the receipt of malarial tablets. Overall, our results suggest the need for public health policymakers to focus on ensuring high-quality prenatal care to enhance the survival prospects of Zimbabwe's infants. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Disparities in child mortality trends in two new states of India

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background India has the world’s highest total number of under-five deaths of any nation. While progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4 has been documented at the state level, little information is available for greater disaggregation of child health markers within states. In 2000, new states were created within the country as a partial response to political pressures. State-level information on child health trends in the new states of Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand is scarce. To fill this gap, this article examines under-five and neonatal mortality across various equity markers within these two new states, pre-and post-split. Methods Both direct and indirect estimation using pooled data from five available sources were undertaken. Inter-population disparities were evaluated by mortality data stratification of rural–urban location, ethnicity, wealth and districts. Results Both states experienced an overall reduction in under-five and neonatal mortality, however, this has stagnated post-2001 and various disparities persist. In cases where disparities have declined, such as between urban–rural populations and low- and high-income groups, this has been driven by modest declines within the disadvantaged groups (i.e. low-income rural households) and stagnation or worsening of outcomes within the advantaged groups. Indeed, rising trends in mortality are most prevalent in urban middle-income households. Conclusions The results suggest that rural health improvements may have come at the expense of urban areas, where poor performance may be attributed to factors such as lack of access to quality private health facilities. In addition, the disparities may in part be associated with geographical access, traditional practices and district-level health resource allocation. PMID:23978236

Effect of different East Coast fever control strategies on disease incidence in traditionally managed Sanga cattle in Central Province of Zambia.

PubMed

Minjauw, B; Otte, M J; James, A D; de Castro, J J; Sinyangwe, P

1998-05-01

A clinical trial, including five East Coast fever (ECF) control strategies (involving tick control and/or immunisation by infection-and-treatment) in five different groups of traditionally managed Sanga cattle, was conducted in Central Province of Zambia over 2.5 years between 1992 and 1995. Two groups were kept under intensive tick control by weekly acaricide treatment by hand spray; (one immunised and one non-immunised), two groups were under no tick control (one immunised and one non-immunised), and a fifth, immunised group was maintained under strategic tick control (18 sprays yr-1). ECF-specific mortality was highest in the non-immunised and non-treated group, while no difference in ECF-specific mortality could be observed between animals treated for ECF by immunisation or by tick control. Acaricide treatment and/or immunisation reduced the risk of clinical ECF by 92%. The results of an artificial challenge experiment at the end of the field trial indicated that about 60% of the animals in the control group had become infected with Theileria parva without showing clinical signs. ECF incidence in non-vaccinated cattle markedly declined six months after immunisation--suggesting that the carrier state induced by immunisation did not lead to a persistent high incidence, and might accelerate the progress to endemicity.

Trends in childhood mortality in Kenya: the urban advantage has seemingly been wiped out.

PubMed

Kimani-Murage, E W; Fotso, J C; Egondi, T; Abuya, B; Elungata, P; Ziraba, A K; Kabiru, C W; Madise, N

2014-09-01

We describe trends in childhood mortality in Kenya, paying attention to the urban-rural and intra-urban differentials. We use data from the Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys (KDHS) collected between 1993 and 2008 and the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS) collected in two Nairobi slums between 2003 and 2010, to estimate infant mortality rate (IMR), child mortality rate (CMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR). Between 1993 and 2008, there was a downward trend in IMR, CMR and U5MR in both rural and urban areas. The decline was more rapid and statistically significant in rural areas but not in urban areas, hence the gap in urban-rural differentials narrowed over time. There was also a downward trend in childhood mortality in the slums between 2003 and 2010 from 83 to 57 for IMR, 33 to 24 for CMR, and 113 to 79 for U5MR, although the rates remained higher compared to those for rural and non-slum urban areas in Kenya. The narrowing gap between urban and rural areas may be attributed to the deplorable living conditions in urban slums. To reduce childhood mortality, extra emphasis is needed on the urban slums. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Trends in childhood mortality in Kenya: The urban advantage has seemingly been wiped out

PubMed Central

Kimani-Murage, E.W.; Fotso, J.C.; Egondi, T.; Abuya, B.; Elungata, P.; Ziraba, A.K.; Kabiru, C.W.; Madise, N.

2014-01-01

Background We describe trends in childhood mortality in Kenya, paying attention to the urban–rural and intra-urban differentials. Methods We use data from the Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys (KDHS) collected between 1993 and 2008 and the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS) collected in two Nairobi slums between 2003 and 2010, to estimate infant mortality rate (IMR), child mortality rate (CMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR). Results Between 1993 and 2008, there was a downward trend in IMR, CMR and U5MR in both rural and urban areas. The decline was more rapid and statistically significant in rural areas but not in urban areas, hence the gap in urban–rural differentials narrowed over time. There was also a downward trend in childhood mortality in the slums between 2003 and 2010 from 83 to 57 for IMR, 33 to 24 for CMR, and 113 to 79 for U5MR, although the rates remained higher compared to those for rural and non-slum urban areas in Kenya. Conclusions The narrowing gap between urban and rural areas may be attributed to the deplorable living conditions in urban slums. To reduce childhood mortality, extra emphasis is needed on the urban slums. PMID:25024120

Characterizing measles transmission in India: a dynamic modeling study using verbal autopsy data.

PubMed

Verguet, Stéphane; Jones, Edward O; Johri, Mira; Morris, Shaun K; Suraweera, Wilson; Gauvreau, Cindy L; Jha, Prabhat; Jit, Mark

2017-08-10

Decreasing trends in measles mortality have been reported in recent years. However, such estimates of measles mortality have depended heavily on assumed regional measles case fatality risks (CFRs) and made little use of mortality data from low- and middle-income countries in general and India, the country with the highest measles burden globally, in particular. We constructed a dynamic model of measles transmission in India with parameters that were empirically inferred using spectral analysis from a time series of measles mortality extracted from the Million Death Study, an ongoing longitudinal study recording deaths across 2.4 million Indian households and attributing causes of death using verbal autopsy. The model was then used to estimate the measles CFR, the number of measles deaths, and the impact of vaccination in 2000-2015 among under-five children in India and in the states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh (UP), two states with large populations and the highest numbers of measles deaths in India. We obtained the following estimated CFRs among under-five children for the year 2005: 0.63% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.40-1.00%) for India as a whole, 0.62% (0.38-1.00%) for Bihar, and 1.19% (0.80-1.75%) for UP. During 2000-2015, we estimated that 607,000 (95% CI: 383,000-958,000) under-five deaths attributed to measles occurred in India as a whole. If no routine vaccination or supplemental immunization activities had occurred from 2000 to 2015, an additional 1.6 (1.0-2.6) million deaths for under-five children would have occurred across India. We developed a data- and model-driven estimation of the historical measles dynamics, CFR, and vaccination impact in India, extracting the periodicity of epidemics using spectral and coherence analysis, which allowed us to infer key parameters driving measles transmission dynamics and mortality.

In Vitro Efficacy of Brincidofovir against Variola Virus

PubMed Central

Olson, Victoria A.; Smith, Scott K.; Foster, Scott; Li, Yu; Lanier, E. Randall; Gates, Irina; Trost, Lawrence C.

2014-01-01

Brincidofovir (CMX001), a lipid conjugate of the acyclic nucleotide phosphonate cidofovir, is under development for smallpox treatment using “the Animal Rule,” established by the FDA in 2002. Brincidofovir reduces mortality caused by orthopoxvirus infection in animal models. Compared to cidofovir, brincidofovir has increased potency, is administered orally, and shows no evidence of nephrotoxicity. Here we report that the brincidofovir half-maximal effective concentration (EC50) against five variola virus strains in vitro averaged 0.11 μM and that brincidofovir was therefore nearly 100-fold more potent than cidofovir. PMID:24957837

Cross-National Systematic Review of Neonatal Mortality and Postnatal Newborn Care: Special Focus on Pakistan.

PubMed

Ahmed, Mansoor; Won, Youngjoon

2017-11-23

The latest nationwide survey of Pakistan showed that considerable progress has been made toward reducing all child mortality indicators except neonatal mortality. The aim of this study is to compare Pakistan's under-five mortality, neonatal mortality, and postnatal newborn care rates with those of other countries. Neonatal mortality rates and postnatal newborn care rates from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) of nine low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) from Asia and Africa were analyzed. Pakistan's maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH) policies and programs, which have been implemented in the country since 1990, were also analyzed. The results highlighted that postnatal newborn care in Pakistan was higher compared with the rest of countries, yet its neonatal mortality remained the worst. In Zimbabwe, both mortality rates have been increasing, whereas the neonatal mortality rates in Nepal and Afghanistan remained unchanged. An analysis of Pakistan's MNCH programs showed that there is no nationwide policy on neonatal health. There were only a few programs concerning the health of newborns, and those were limited in scale. Pakistan's example shows that increased coverage of neonatal care without ensuring quality is unlikely to improve neonatal survival rates. It is suggested that Pakistan needs a comprehensive policy on neonatal health similar to other countries, and its effective programs need to be scaled up, in order to obtain better neonatal health outcomes.

Impact of vitamin A supplementation on infant and childhood mortality

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction Vitamin A is important for the integrity and regeneration of respiratory and gastrointestinal epithelia and is involved in regulating human immune function. It has been shown previously that vitamin A has a preventive effect on all-cause and disease specific mortality in children under five. The purpose of this paper was to get a point estimate of efficacy of vitamin A supplementation in reducing cause specific mortality by using Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG) guidelines. Methods A literature search was done on PubMed, Cochrane Library and WHO regional data bases using various free and Mesh terms for vitamin A and mortality. Data were abstracted into standardized forms and quality of studies was assessed according to standardized guidelines. Pooled estimates were generated for preventive effect of vitamin A supplementation on all-cause and disease specific mortality of diarrhea, measles, pneumonia, meningitis and sepsis. We did a subgroup analysis for vitamin A supplementation in neonates, infants 1-6 months and children aged 6-59 months. In this paper we have focused on estimation of efficacy of vitamin A supplementation in children 6-59 months of age. Results for neonatal vitamin A supplementation have been presented, however no recommendations are made as more evidence on it would be available soon. Results There were 21 studies evaluating preventive effect of vitamin A supplementation in community settings which reported all-cause mortality. Twelve of these also reported cause specific mortality for diarrhea and pneumonia and six reported measles specific mortality. Combined results from six studies showed that neonatal vitamin A supplementation reduced all-cause mortality by 12 % [Relative risk (RR) 0.88; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.79-0.98]. There was no effect of vitamin A supplementation in reducing all-cause mortality in infants 1-6 months of age [RR 1.05; 95 % CI 0.88-1.26]. Pooled results for preventive vitamin A supplementation showed that it reduced all-cause mortality by 25% [RR 0.75; 95 % CI 0.64-0.88] in children 6-59 months of age. Vitamin A supplementation also reduced diarrhea specific mortality by 30% [RR 0.70; 95 % CI 0.58-0.86] in children 6-59 months. This effect has been recommended for inclusion in the Lives Saved Tool. Vitamin A supplementation had no effect on measles [RR 0.71, 95% CI: 0.43-1.16], meningitis [RR 0.73, 95% CI: 0.22-2.48] and pneumonia [RR 0.94, 95% CI: 0.67-1.30] specific mortality. Conclusion Preventive vitamin A supplementation reduces all-cause and diarrhea specific mortality in children 6-59 months of age in community settings in developing countries. PMID:21501438

Newborn care in Indonesia, Lao People's Democratic Republic and the Philippines: a comprehensive needs assessment.

PubMed

Duysburgh, Els; Kerstens, Birgit; Diaz, Melissa; Fardhdiani, Vini; Reyes, Katherine Ann V; Phommachanh, Khamphong; Temmerman, Marleen; Rodriques, Basil; Zaka, Nabila

2014-02-15

Between 1990 and 2011, global neonatal mortality decline was slower than that of under-five mortality. As a result, the proportion of under-five deaths due to neonatal mortality increased. This increase is primarily a consequence of decreasing post-neonatal and child under-five mortality as a result of the typical focus of child survival programmes of the past two decades on diseases affecting children over four weeks of age. Newborns are lagging behind in improved child health outcomes. The aim of this study was to conduct a comprehensive, equity-focussed newborn care assessment and to explore options to improve newborn survival in Indonesia, Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR) and the Philippines. We assessed newborn health policies, services and care in the three countries through document review, interviews and health facility visits. Findings were triangulated to describe newborns' health status, the health policy and the health system context for newborn care and the equity situation regarding newborn survival. (1) In the three countries, decline of neonatal mortality is lagging behind compared to that of under-five mortality. (2) Comprehensive newborn policies in line with international standards exist, although implementation remains poor. An important factor hampering implementation is decentralisation of the health sector, which created confusion regarding roles and responsibilities. Management capacity and skills at decentralised level were often found to be limited. (3) Quality of newborn care provided at primary healthcare and referral level is generally substandard. Limited knowledge and skills among providers of newborn care are contributing to poor quality of care. (4) Socio-economic and geographic inequities in newborn care are considerable. Similar important challenges for newborn care have been identified in Indonesia, Lao PDR and the Philippines. There is an urgent need to address weak leadership and governance regarding newborn care, quality of newborn care provided and inequities in newborn care. Child survival programmes focussed on children over four weeks of age have shown to have positive outcomes. Similar efforts as those used in these programmes should be considered in newborn care.

Newborn care in Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic and the Philippines: a comprehensive needs assessment

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Between 1990 and 2011, global neonatal mortality decline was slower than that of under-five mortality. As a result, the proportion of under-five deaths due to neonatal mortality increased. This increase is primarily a consequence of decreasing post-neonatal and child under-five mortality as a result of the typical focus of child survival programmes of the past two decades on diseases affecting children over four weeks of age. Newborns are lagging behind in improved child health outcomes. The aim of this study was to conduct a comprehensive, equity-focussed newborn care assessment and to explore options to improve newborn survival in Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR) and the Philippines. Methods We assessed newborn health policies, services and care in the three countries through document review, interviews and health facility visits. Findings were triangulated to describe newborns’ health status, the health policy and the health system context for newborn care and the equity situation regarding newborn survival. Results Main findings: (1) In the three countries, decline of neonatal mortality is lagging behind compared to that of under-five mortality. (2) Comprehensive newborn policies in line with international standards exist, although implementation remains poor. An important factor hampering implementation is decentralisation of the health sector, which created confusion regarding roles and responsibilities. Management capacity and skills at decentralised level were often found to be limited. (3) Quality of newborn care provided at primary healthcare and referral level is generally substandard. Limited knowledge and skills among providers of newborn care are contributing to poor quality of care. (4) Socio-economic and geographic inequities in newborn care are considerable. Conclusions Similar important challenges for newborn care have been identified in Indonesia, Lao PDR and the Philippines. There is an urgent need to address weak leadership and governance regarding newborn care, quality of newborn care provided and inequities in newborn care. Child survival programmes focussed on children over four weeks of age have shown to have positive outcomes. Similar efforts as those used in these programmes should be considered in newborn care. PMID:24528519

Housing materials as predictors of under-five mortality in Nigeria: evidence from 2013 demographic and health survey.

PubMed

Adebowale, Stephen Ayo; Morakinyo, Oyewale Mayowa; Ana, Godson Rowland

2017-01-19

Nigeria is among countries with high Under-Five Mortality (U5M) rates worldwide. Both maternal and childhood factors have been linked to U5M in the country. However, despite the growing global recognition of the association between housing and quality of life, the role of housing materials as predictors of U5M remain largely unexplored in Nigeria. This study, therefore, investigated the relationship between housing materials and U5M in Nigeria. The study utilised the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey data. A representative sample of 40,680 households was selected for the survey. The sample included 18,516 women of reproductive age who had given birth in the past 5 years prior the survey; with attention on the survival status of the index child (the most recent delivery). Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Chi-square, Cox-proportional hazard and Brass 2-parameter models (α = 0.05). The hazard ratio of U5M was 1.46 (C.I = 1.02-1.47, p < 0.001) and 1.23 (C.I = 1.24-1.71, p < 0.001) higher among children who lived in houses built with inadequate and moderate housing materials respectively than those in good housing materials. Under-five deaths show a downward trend (slope = -0.4871) relative to the housing materials assessment score. The refined U5M rate was 143.5, 127.0 and 90.8 per 1000 live birth among women who live in houses built with inadequate, moderate and adequate housing materials respectively. Other predictors of U5M were; the size of the child at birth, preceding birth interval, prenatal care provider, residence and education. Under-five death reduces with increasing maternal level of; education, wealth quintile, media exposure and housing material type and mostly experienced by Muslim women (6.0%), rural women (6.5%) and women residence in the North-West geopolitical zones (6.9%). Living in houses built with poor housing materials promoted U5M in Nigeria. Provision of sustainable housing by the government and the maintenance of existing housing stock to healthful conditions will play a significant role in reducing the burden of U5M in Nigeria.

Using community-based reporting of vital events to monitor child mortality: Lessons from rural Ghana.

PubMed

Helleringer, Stephane; Arhinful, Daniel; Abuaku, Benjamin; Humes, Michael; Wilson, Emily; Marsh, Andrew; Clermont, Adrienne; Black, Robert E; Bryce, Jennifer; Amouzou, Agbessi

2018-01-01

Reducing neonatal and child mortality is a key component of the health-related sustainable development goal (SDG), but most low and middle income countries lack data to monitor child mortality on an annual basis. We tested a mortality monitoring system based on the continuous recording of pregnancies, births and deaths by trained community-based volunteers (CBV). This project was implemented in 96 clusters located in three districts of the Northern Region of Ghana. Community-based volunteers (CBVs) were selected from these clusters and were trained in recording all pregnancies, births, and deaths among children under 5 in their catchment areas. Data collection lasted from January 2012 through September 2013. All CBVs transmitted tallies of recorded births and deaths to the Ghana Birth and deaths registry each month, except in one of the study districts (approximately 80% reporting). Some events were reported only several months after they had occurred. We assessed the completeness and accuracy of CBV data by comparing them to retrospective full pregnancy histories (FPH) collected during a census of the same clusters conducted in October-December 2013. We conducted all analyses separately by district, as well as for the combined sample of all districts. During the 21-month implementation period, the CBVs reported a total of 2,819 births and 137 under-five deaths. Among the latter, there were 84 infant deaths (55 neonatal deaths and 29 post-neonatal deaths). Comparison of the CBV data with FPH data suggested that CBVs significantly under-estimated child mortality: the estimated under-5 mortality rate according to CBV data was only 2/3 of the rate estimated from FPH data (95% Confidence Interval for the ratio of the two rates = 51.7 to 81.4). The discrepancies between the CBV and FPH estimates of infant and neonatal mortality were more limited, but varied significantly across districts. In northern Ghana, a community-based data collection systems relying on volunteers did not yield accurate estimates of child mortality rates. Additional implementation research is needed to improve the timeliness, completeness and accuracy of such systems. Enhancing pregnancy monitoring, in particular, may be an essential step to improve the measurement of neonatal mortality.

Disparities in Under-Five Child Injury Mortality between Developing and Developed Countries: 1990-2013.

PubMed

Huang, Yun; Wu, Yue; Schwebel, David C; Zhou, Liang; Hu, Guoqing

2016-07-07

Using estimates from the 2013 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, we update evidence on disparities in under-five child injury mortality between developing and developed countries from 1990 to 2013. Mortality rates were accessed through the online visualization tool by the GBD study 2013 group. We calculated percent change in child injury mortality rates between 1990 and 2013. Data analysis was conducted separately for <1 year and 1-4 years to specify age differences in rate changes. Between 1990 and 2013, over 3-fold mortality gaps were observed between developing countries and developed countries for both age groups in the study time period. Similar decreases in injury rates were observed for developed and developing countries (<1 year: -50% vs. -50% respectively; 1-4 years: -56% vs. -58%). Differences in injury mortality changes during 1990-2013 between developing and developed nations varied with injury cause. There were greater reductions in mortality from transport injury, falls, poisoning, adverse effects of medical treatment, exposure to forces of nature, and collective violence and legal intervention in developed countries, whereas there were larger decreases in mortality from drowning, exposure to mechanical forces, and animal contact in developing countries. Country-specific analysis showed large variations across countries for both injury mortality and changes in injury mortality between 1990 and 2013. Sustained higher child injury mortality during 1990-2013 for developing countries merits the attention of the global injury prevention community. Countries that have high injury mortality can benefit from the success of other countries.

Islamic Republic of Iran provides fresh data.

PubMed

1998-01-01

This article presents a demographic statistical profile of the Islamic Republic of Iran, based on 1996 census data. The discussion also focused on the government actions taken since the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development. Total population was 60.1 million. 61% of population lived in urban areas. 51.4% of the population were aged under 20 years of age. 4.3% were aged over 65 years. The annual rate of population growth was 2.7% during 1976-86, and 3.2% during 1986-96. Growth was accounted for by an increase in refugee flow, decreased mortality, and a higher birth rate. The Government in 1987, enacted the Family Planning Law as a measure to reduce the rapid population growth rate. The 1994-98 Five Year Plan integrates population issues with sustainable development strategies. The aim for 1998, is to reduce population growth to 1.5%, fertility to 2.5 children/woman, maternal mortality to 35/100,000 live births, and infant mortality to under 22/1000 live births. Islamic principles address gender issues having to do with equality, equity, and the empowerment of women. A Bureau of Women's Affairs, which was established under the President's Office, aims to promote the status of women and ensure their active participation within the development process. The government has advanced women's position by improving reproductive health and family planning programs. In late 1994, the government began to promote the activities of 70 nongovernmental organizations, many of which are concerned with women's issues. A high council for youth was set up in the President's Office.

Path to impact: A report from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation convening on maternal immunization in resource-limited settings; Berlin - January 29-30, 2015.

PubMed

Sobanjo-Ter Meulen, Ajoke; Abramson, Jon; Mason, Elizabeth; Rees, Helen; Schwalbe, Nina; Bergquist, Sharon; Klugman, Keith P

2015-11-25

Global initiatives such as the Millennium Development Goals have led to major improvements in the health of women and children, and significant reductions in childhood mortality. Worldwide, maternal mortality has decreased by 45% and under-five mortality has fallen by over 50% over the past two decades [1]. However, improvements have not been achieved evenly across all ages; since 1990, under-five mortality has declined by ∼5% annually, but the average decrease in neonatal mortality is only ∼3% per year. Against this background, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) convened a meeting in Berlin on January 29-30, 2015 of global health stakeholders, representing funders, academia, regulatory agencies, non-governmental organizations, vaccine manufacturers, and Ministries of Health from Africa and Asia. The topic of discussion was the potential of maternal immunization (MI) to achieve further improvements in under-five morbidity and mortality rates in children, and particularly neonates and young infants, through targeting infectious diseases that are not preventable by other interventions in these age groups. The meeting focused on effective and appropriately priced MI vaccines against influenza, pertussis, and tetanus, as well as against respiratory syncytial virus, and the group B Streptococcus, for which no licensed vaccines currently exist. The primary goals of the BMGF 2015 convening were to bring together the global stakeholders in vaccine development, policy and delivery together with the Maternal, Newborn and Child Health (MNCH) community, to get recognition that MI is a strategy shared between these groups and so encourage increased collaboration, and obtain alignment on the next steps toward achieving a significant health impact through implementation of a MI program. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Feasibility and pilot study of the effects of microfinance on mortality and nutrition in children under five amongst the very poor in India: study protocol for a cluster randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Ojha, Shalini; Szatkowski, Lisa; Sinha, Ranjeet; Yaron, Gil; Fogarty, Andrew; Allen, Stephen; Choudhary, Sunil; Smyth, Alan R

2014-07-23

The United Nations Millennium Development Goals include targets for the health of children under five years old. Poor health is linked to poverty and microfinance initiatives are economic interventions that may improve health by breaking the cycle of poverty. However, there is a lack of reliable evidence to support this. In addition, microfinance schemes may have adverse effects on health, for example due to increased indebtedness. Rojiroti UK and the Centre for Promoting Sustainable Livelihood run an innovative microfinance scheme that provides microcredit via women's self-help groups (SHGs). This pilot study, conducted in rural Bihar (India), will establish whether it is feasible to collect anthropometric and mortality data on children under five years old and to conduct a limited cluster randomized trial of the Rojiroti intervention. We have designed a cluster randomized trial in which participating tolas (small communities within villages) will be randomized to either receive early (SHGs and microfinance at baseline) or late intervention (SHGs and microfinance after 18 months). Using predesigned questionnaires, demographic, and mortality data for the last year and information about participating mothers and their children will be collected and the weight, height, and mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) of children will be measured at baseline and at 18 months. The late intervention group will establish SHGs and microfinance support at this point and data collection will be repeated at 36 months.The primary outcome measure will be the mean weight for height z-score of children under five years old in the early and late intervention tolas at 18 months. Secondary outcome measures will be the mortality rate, mean weight for age, height for age, prevalence of underweight, stunting, and wasting among children under five years of age. Despite economic progress, marked inequalities in child health persist in India and Bihar is one of the worst affected states. There is a need to evaluate programs that may alleviate poverty and improve health. This study will help to inform the design of a definitive trial to determine if the Rojiroti scheme can improve the nutrition and survival of children under five years of age in deprived rural communities. Clinicaltrials.gov (study ID: NCT01845545). Registered on 24 April 2013.

Does intelligence account for the link between maternal literacy and child survival?

PubMed

Sandiford, P; Cassel, J; Sanchez, G; Coldham, C

1997-10-01

The strong and consistent correlation between maternal education and child health is now well known, and numerous studies have shown that wealth and income cannot explain the link. Policy-makers have therefore assumed that the relationship is causal and explicitly advocate schooling as a child health intervention. However, there are other factors which could account for the apparent effect of maternal education on child morbidity and mortality, one of which is intelligence. This paper examines the effect of maternal intelligence on child health and looks at the degree to which it can explain the literacy associations with child survival and risk of malnutrition. The data are from a retrospective cohort study of 1294 mothers and their 7475 offspring, of whom 454 were women who had learned to read and write as adults in Nicaragua's literacy programme, 457 were illiterate, and 383 had become literate as young girls attending school. The women's intelligence was tested using Raven's Coloured Progressive Matrices. Acquisition of literacy was strongly related to intelligence. Statistically significant associations with maternal literacy were found for under five mortality, infant mortality, and the risk of low mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC) for age, before and after controlling for a wide range of socio-economic factors. Under five, child (one to four years), infant and post-neonatal mortality plus the risk of low height for age were significantly correlated with intelligence, but only with infant and under mortality rates did the association remain significant after controlling for socio-economic factors. A significant interaction between intelligence and literacy for under five mortality was due to literacy having a strong effect in the women of low intelligence, and a negligible effect among those of high intelligence. This study provides evidence that intelligence is an important determinant of child health among the illiterate, and that education may have the greatest impact on child health for mothers of relatively low intelligence.

Consequences of Widespread Piñon Mortality for Water Availability and Water Use Dynamics in Piñon-Juniper Woodlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morillas, L.; Pangle, R. E.; Krofcheck, D. J.; Pockman, W.; Litvak, M. E.

2014-12-01

Tree die-off events have showed a rapid increase in the last decade as a result of warmer temperatures and more severe drought. In the southwestern US, where piñon-juniper (PJ) woodlands occupy 24 million ha, the turn of the century drought (1999-2002) triggered 40-95% mortality of piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and 2-25% mortality of juniper (Juniperous monosperma). To determine the consequences of this disturbance on surface water balance we conducted a girdling experiment where all piñon trees above 7 cm of diameter at breast height in an area of 200 m2 were girdled in September 2009. We compared water and energy fluxes in this girdled site (PJG) using open-path eddy covariance (EC) to fluxes measured simultaneously in an intact PJ woodland less than 3 km away (PJC). In addition to evapotranspiration (ET) measurements from EC, canopy transpiration (ETc) was measured using sap flow probes (Granier thermal dissipation method) installed on five juniper and five piñon trees at each site. Soil water content (SWC) was also monitored using TDR probes (CS610, Campbell Scientific) under the three main cover types ( bare soil, under juniper and under piñon) and at three depths (5,10 and 30 cm depths) in both sites. Total ET at PJG decreased slowly, but progressively, relative to PJC following the girdling, with annual ET 5%, 10% and 19% lower in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively, in the girdled site. Following the girdling, canopy transpiration was significantly reduced at PJG, with an observed reduction of annual ETc at PJG of 45%, 59% and 71% from 2010 to 2012 compared to the PJC site. Our results suggest that girdling triggered a significant increase of soil evaporation and understory transpiration (not directly measured) as a result of canopy cover loss. This agrees with significant higher establishment of annual forbs seen at PJG relative to PJC and the increase of solar radiation reaching the soil surface as a result of canopy cover loss. Our results suggest piñon mortality leaves PJ woodlands hotter and drier than intact PJ woodlands. Given the extent of mortality observed in these woodlands and the predicted increase in mortality expected over the next century, these results have important surface energy balance consequences for the Southwestern US.

Potential for reduction of burden and local elimination of malaria by reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission: a mathematical modelling study.

PubMed

Griffin, Jamie T; Bhatt, Samir; Sinka, Marianne E; Gething, Peter W; Lynch, Michael; Patouillard, Edith; Shutes, Erin; Newman, Robert D; Alonso, Pedro; Cibulskis, Richard E; Ghani, Azra C

2016-04-01

Rapid declines in malaria prevalence, cases, and deaths have been achieved globally during the past 15 years because of improved access to first-line treatment and vector control. We aimed to assess the intervention coverage needed to achieve further gains over the next 15 years. We used a mathematical model of the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria to explore the potential effect on case incidence and malaria mortality rates from 2015 to 2030 of five different intervention scenarios: remaining at the intervention coverage levels of 2011-13 (Sustain), for which coverage comprises vector control and access to treatment; two scenarios of increased coverage to 80% (Accelerate 1) and 90% (Accelerate 2), with a switch from quinine to injectable artesunate for management of severe disease and seasonal malaria chemoprevention where recommended for both Accelerate scenarios, and rectal artesunate for pre-referral treatment at the community level added to Accelerate 2; a near-term innovation scenario (Innovate), which included longer-lasting insecticidal nets and expansion of seasonal malaria chemoprevention; and a reduction in coverage to 2006-08 levels (Reverse). We did the model simulations at the first administrative level (ie, state or province) for the 80 countries with sustained stable malaria transmission in 2010, accounting for variations in baseline endemicity, seasonality in transmission, vector species, and existing intervention coverage. To calculate the cases and deaths averted, we compared the total number of each under the five scenarios between 2015 and 2030 with the predicted number in 2015, accounting for population growth. With an increase to 80% coverage, we predicted a reduction in case incidence of 21% (95% credible intervals [CrI] 19-29) and a reduction in mortality rates of 40% (27-61) by 2030 compared with 2015 levels. Acceleration to 90% coverage and expansion of treatment at the community level was predicted to reduce case incidence by 59% (Crl 56-64) and mortality rates by 74% (67-82); with additional near-term innovation, incidence was predicted to decline by 74% (70-77) and mortality rates by 81% (76-87). These scenarios were predicted to lead to local elimination in 13 countries under the Accelerate 1 scenario, 20 under Accelerate 2, and 22 under Innovate by 2030, reducing the proportion of the population living in at-risk areas by 36% if elimination is defined at the first administrative unit. However, failing to maintain coverage levels of 2011-13 is predicted to raise case incidence by 76% (Crl 71-80) and mortality rates by 46% (39-51) by 2020. Our findings show that decreases in malaria transmission and burden can be accelerated over the next 15 years if the coverage of key interventions is increased. UK Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Swiss Development Agency, and the US Agency for International Development. Copyright © Griffin et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. 2015. World Health Organization; licensee Elsevier. This is an Open Access article published without any waiver of WHO's privileges and immunities under international law, convention, or agreement. This article should not be reproduced for use in association with the promotion of commercial products, services, or any legal entity. There should be no suggestion that WHO endorses any specific organisation or products. The use of the WHO logo is not permitted. This notice should be preserved along with the Article's original URL.

In vitro efficacy of brincidofovir against variola virus.

PubMed

Olson, Victoria A; Smith, Scott K; Foster, Scott; Li, Yu; Lanier, E Randall; Gates, Irina; Trost, Lawrence C; Damon, Inger K

2014-09-01

Brincidofovir (CMX001), a lipid conjugate of the acyclic nucleotide phosphonate cidofovir, is under development for smallpox treatment using "the Animal Rule," established by the FDA in 2002. Brincidofovir reduces mortality caused by orthopoxvirus infection in animal models. Compared to cidofovir, brincidofovir has increased potency, is administered orally, and shows no evidence of nephrotoxicity. Here we report that the brincidofovir half-maximal effective concentration (EC50) against five variola virus strains in vitro averaged 0.11 μM and that brincidofovir was therefore nearly 100-fold more potent than cidofovir. Copyright © 2014, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

A mortality study of workers exposed to insoluble forms of beryllium

PubMed Central

Boffetta, Paolo; Fordyce, Tiffani

2014-01-01

This study investigated lung cancer and other diseases related to insoluble beryllium compounds. A cohort of 4950 workers from four US insoluble beryllium manufacturing facilities were followed through 2009. Expected deaths were calculated using local and national rates. On the basis of local rates, all-cause mortality was significantly reduced. Mortality from lung cancer (standardized mortality ratio 96.0; 95% confidence interval 80.0, 114.3) and from nonmalignant respiratory diseases was also reduced. There were no significant trends for either cause of death according to duration of employment or time since first employment. Uterine cancer among women was the only cause of death with a significantly increased standardized mortality ratio. Five of the seven women worked in office jobs. This study confirmed the lack of an increase in mortality from lung cancer and nonmalignant respiratory diseases related to insoluble beryllium compounds. PMID:24589746

Pattern of emergency neurologic morbidities in children.

PubMed Central

Ofovwe, Gabriel E.; Ibadin, Michael O.; Okunola, Peter O.; Ofoegbu, Bibian

2005-01-01

Neurologic morbidities seen in the children's emergency facility of the University of Benin Teaching Hospital, Nigeria, over a five-year period (July 1996-June 2001) was evaluated to determine the pattern and outcome. Notes and ward records of patients with neurologic morbidities were retrieved. Data obtained from these sources include age, sex principal diagnosis, duration of stay and outcome. Six-hundred-four out of 3,868 patients (15.6%) had neurologic morbidity. Children five years of age and under were 466 (77.2%), and modal age group was 1-2 years. Febrile convulsion was the most common neurologic morbidity seen (35.1%) followed by cerebral malaria (28.0%) and then meningitis (27.0%). An increased incidence of cases occurred during the rainy season. Sixty-four out of 406 with complete records (15.8%) died. Forty-seven (67.2%) died within 24 hours of admission. Cerebral malaria and meningitis accounted for all the deaths. Preventable infectious diseases are the major causes of emergency neurologic morbidities and mortality. The majority die within 24 hours largely due to a delay in presentation to the hospital. Effective malaria control and prevention of meningitis would reduce the incidence of neurologic morbidities and, if this is coupled with health education of the populace on the importance of attending health facility early, mortality from these causes would be greatly reduced. PMID:15871144

Under 5 mortality rate and its contributors in Zhejiang Province of China from 2000 to 2009

PubMed Central

Huang, Xin-Wen; Yang, Ru-Lai

2013-01-01

Objective By analyzing the under 5 mortality rate (U5MR) and its contributors in Zhejiang Province of China from 2000 to 2009, we tried to understand the trend of U5MR change in Zhejiang Province and thus propose strategies to reduce child mortality. Methods Thirty cities/counties/districts from Zhejiang Province were selected using stratified cluster sampling approach. Children under five years in these areas were enrolled as the subjects. The U5MR and its contributors were analyzed in terms of age, migration status of mothers, and other indicators using classic descriptive methods and Chi square test. Results The U5MR in Zhejiang Province showed a declining trend from 14.83‰ in 2000 to 9.49‰ in 2009. In 2009, the U5MR was significantly higher in the rural areas than in the urban areas (9.14‰ vs.6.50‰, P<0.01) and among floating populations than among local residents (12.12‰ vs. 6.42‰, P<0.01). Preterm birth/low birth weight was the leading cause of U5MR in 2009. More specifically, preterm birth/low birth weight, congenital heart disease, and birth asphyxia were the top three causes of deaths among infants (<1 year), while drowning, traffic accidents, and accidental falls were the leading causes of deaths among children (1-4 years). Conclusion The U5MR in Zhejiang Province in 2009 differed between urban areas and rural areas and between floating populations and local residents. The main causes of death differ between infants and young children. Prevention of preterm birth/low birth weight and congenital anomalies will reduce infant death, while the main intervention for young children is to avoid accidental injuries. PMID:26835282

Relative sensitivity of five Hawaiian coral species to high temperature under high-pCO2 conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahr, Keisha D.; Jokiel, Paul L.; Rodgers, Ku'ulei S.

2016-06-01

Coral reef ecosystems are presently undergoing decline due to anthropogenic climate change. The chief detrimental factors are increased temperature and increased pCO2. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of these two stressors operating independently and in unison on the biological response of common Hawaiian reef corals. Manipulative experiments were performed using five species ( Porites compressa, Pocillopora damicornis, Fungia scutaria, Montipora capitata, and Leptastrea purpurea) in a continuous-flow mesocosm system under natural sunlight conditions. Corals were grown together as a community under treatments of high temperature (2 °C above normal maximum summer temperature), high pCO2 (twice present-day conditions), and with both factors acting in unison. Control corals were grown under present-day pCO2 and at normal summer temperatures. Leptastrea purpurea proved to be an extremely hardy coral. No change in calcification or mortality occurred under treatments of high temperature, high pCO2, or combined high temperature-high pCO2. The remaining four species showed reduced calcification in the high-temperature treatment. Two species ( L. purpurea and M. capitata) showed no response to increased pCO2. Also, high pCO2 ameliorated the negative effect of high temperature on the calcification rates of P. damicornis. Mortality was driven primarily by high temperature, with a negative synergistic effect in P. compressa only in the high-pCO2-high-temperature treatment. Results support the observation that biological response to temperature and pCO2 elevation is highly species-specific, so generalizations based on response of a single species might not apply to a diverse and complex coral reef community.

Levels of Urbanization and Parental Education in Relation to the Mortality Risk of Young Children.

PubMed

Fang, Hsin-Sheng; Chen, Wei-Ling; Chen, Chiu-Ying; Jia, Chun-Hua; Li, Chung-Yi; Hou, Wen-Hsuan

2015-07-08

The establishment of the National Health Insurance program in Taiwan in 1995 effectively removed the financial barrier to access health care services of Taiwanese people. This population-based cohort study aimed to determine the independent and joint effects of parental education and area urbanization on the mortality risk among children under the universal health insurance coverage in Taiwan since 1995. We linked 1,501,620 births from 1996 to 2000 to the Taiwan Death Registry to estimate the neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality rates, according to the levels of parental education and urbanization of residential areas. We used a logistic regression model that considers data clustering to estimate the independent and joint effects. Lower levels of parental education and area urbanization exerted an independent effect of mortality on young children, with a stronger magnitude noted for areas with lower levels of urbanization. Children whose parents had lower levels of education and who were born in areas with lower levels of urbanization experienced the highest risk for neonatal (odds ratio (OR) = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.46-1.76), infant (OR = 1.58, 95% CI = 1.48-1.70), and under-five (OR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.61-1.82) mortality. Even with universal health insurance coverage, lower levels of area urbanization and parental education still exerted independent and joint effects on mortality in young children. This finding implies the inadequate accessibility to health care resources for children from socially disadvantaged families and less urbanized areas.

Religious affiliation and under-five mortality in Mozambique.

PubMed

Cau, Boaventura M; Sevoyan, Arusyak; Agadjanian, Victor

2013-05-01

The influence of religion on health remains a subject of considerable debate both in developed and developing settings. This study examines the connection between the religious affiliation of the mother and under-five mortality in Mozambique. It uses unique retrospective survey data collected in a predominantly Christian area in Mozambique to compare under-five mortality between children of women affiliated to organized religion and children of non-affiliated women. It finds that mother's affiliation to any religious organization, as compared with non-affiliation, has a significant positive effect on child survival net of education and other socio-demographic factors. When the effects of affiliation to specific denominational groups are examined, only affiliation to the Catholic or mainstream Protestant churches and affiliation to Apostolic churches are significantly associated with improved child survival. It is argued that the advantages of these groups may be achieved through different mechanisms: the favourable effect on child survival of having mothers affiliated to the Catholic or mainstream Protestant churches is probably due to these churches' stronger connections to the health sector, while the beneficial effect of having an Apostolic mother is probably related to strong social ties and mutual support in Apostolic congregations. The findings thus shed light on multiple pathways through which organized religion can affect child health and survival in sub-Saharan Africa and similar developing settings.

Potential for reduction of burden and local elimination of malaria by reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission: a mathematical modelling study

PubMed Central

Griffin, Jamie T; Bhatt, Samir; Sinka, Marianne E; Gething, Peter W; Lynch, Michael; Patouillard, Edith; Shutes, Erin; Newman, Robert D; Alonso, Pedro; Cibulskis, Richard E; Ghani, Azra C

2016-01-01

Summary Background Rapid declines in malaria prevalence, cases, and deaths have been achieved globally during the past 15 years because of improved access to first-line treatment and vector control. We aimed to assess the intervention coverage needed to achieve further gains over the next 15 years. Methods We used a mathematical model of the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria to explore the potential effect on case incidence and malaria mortality rates from 2015 to 2030 of five different intervention scenarios: remaining at the intervention coverage levels of 2011–13 (Sustain), for which coverage comprises vector control and access to treatment; two scenarios of increased coverage to 80% (Accelerate 1) and 90% (Accelerate 2), with a switch from quinine to injectable artesunate for management of severe disease and seasonal malaria chemoprevention where recommended for both Accelerate scenarios, and rectal artesunate for pre-referral treatment at the community level added to Accelerate 2; a near-term innovation scenario (Innovate), which included longer-lasting insecticidal nets and expansion of seasonal malaria chemoprevention; and a reduction in coverage to 2006–08 levels (Reverse). We did the model simulations at the first administrative level (ie, state or province) for the 80 countries with sustained stable malaria transmission in 2010, accounting for variations in baseline endemicity, seasonality in transmission, vector species, and existing intervention coverage. To calculate the cases and deaths averted, we compared the total number of each under the five scenarios between 2015 and 2030 with the predicted number in 2015, accounting for population growth. Findings With an increase to 80% coverage, we predicted a reduction in case incidence of 21% (95% credible intervals [CrI] 19–29) and a reduction in mortality rates of 40% (27–61) by 2030 compared with 2015 levels. Acceleration to 90% coverage and expansion of treatment at the community level was predicted to reduce case incidence by 59% (Crl 56–64) and mortality rates by 74% (67–82); with additional near-term innovation, incidence was predicted to decline by 74% (70–77) and mortality rates by 81% (76–87). These scenarios were predicted to lead to local elimination in 13 countries under the Accelerate 1 scenario, 20 under Accelerate 2, and 22 under Innovate by 2030, reducing the proportion of the population living in at-risk areas by 36% if elimination is defined at the first administrative unit. However, failing to maintain coverage levels of 2011–13 is predicted to raise case incidence by 76% (Crl 71–80) and mortality rates by 46% (39–51) by 2020. Interpretation Our findings show that decreases in malaria transmission and burden can be accelerated over the next 15 years if the coverage of key interventions is increased. Funding UK Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Swiss Development Agency, and the US Agency for International Development. PMID:26809816

Temporal trends (1977-2007) and ethnic inequity in child mortality in rural villages of southern Guinea Bissau.

PubMed

Fazzio, Ila; Mann, Vera; Boone, Peter

2011-09-02

Guinea Bissau is one of the poorest countries in the world, with one of the highest under-5 mortality rate. Despite its importance for policy planning, data on child mortality are often not available or of poor quality in low-income countries like Guinea Bissau. Our aim in this study was to use the baseline survey to estimate child mortality in rural villages in southern Guinea Bissau for a 30 years period prior to a planned cluster randomised intervention. We aimed to investigate temporal trends with emphasis on historical events and the effect of ethnicity, polygyny and distance to the health centre on child mortality. A baseline survey was conducted prior to a planned cluster randomised intervention to estimate child mortality in 241 rural villages in southern Guinea Bissau between 1977 and 2007. Crude child mortality rates were estimated by Kaplan-Meier method from birth history of 7854 women. Cox regression models were used to investigate the effects of birth periods with emphasis on historical events, ethnicity, polygyny and distance to the health centre on child mortality. High levels of child mortality were found at all ages under five with a significant reduction in child mortality over the time periods of birth except for 1997-2001. That period comprises the 1998/99 civil war interval, when child mortality was 1.5% higher than in the previous period. Children of Balanta ethnic group had higher hazard of dying under five years of age than children from other groups until 2001. Between 2002 and 2007, Fula children showed the highest mortality. Increasing walking distance to the nearest health centre increased the hazard, though not substantially, and polygyny had a negligible and statistically not significant effect on the hazard. Child mortality is strongly associated with ethnicity and it should be considered in health policy planning. Child mortality, though considerably decreased during the past 30 years, remains high in rural Guinea Bissau. Temporal trends also suggest that civil wars have detrimental effects on child mortality. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN52433336.

Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayhoe, K.; Cayan, D.; Field, C.B.; Frumhoff, P.C.; Maurer, E.P.; Miller, N.L.; Moser, S.C.; Schneider, S.H.; Cahill, K.N.; Cleland, E.E.; Dale, L.; Drapek, R.; Hanemann, R.M.; Kalkstein, L.S.; Lenihan, J.; Lunch, C.K.; Neilson, R.P.; Sheridan, S.C.; Verville, J.H.

2004-01-01

The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50-75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30-70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75-90%; and snowpack declines 73-90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades.

Effect of community level intervention on nutritional status and feeding practices of under five children in Ile Ife, Nigeria.

PubMed

Ogundele, Olorunfemi Akinbode; Ogundele, Tolulope

2015-01-01

Childhood malnutrition remains a widespread problem in developing world like Nigeria. The country ranks second among the ten countries contributing to sixty percent of the world's wasted under-five children. Community Integrated Management of Childhood illness (CIMCI) is a programme that employs the use of community based counsellors to address child health and nutritional challenges of the under-five and has the potential to reduce the morbidity and mortality resulting from poor nutritional and feeding practices. The study assessed the effect of community level intervention on nutritional status and feeding practices of children in Ile-Ife, Nigeria. A cross-sectional comparative study that employed the use of multi stage cluster sampling techniques in selecting 722 mothers of index under five children. The study was done in two Local Government Areas of Osun State, Nigeria. Quantitative techniques were used in data collection. Data analysis was done using SPSS version 20.0. Descriptive and bivariate analyses was performed. The two Local Government Area (LGA) did not differ significantly in their wealth index (p = 0.344). However, more children in the non-implementing LGA (16.1%) had low weight for age compared with 3.6% in the CIMCI implementing LGA (p = 0.000). A statistically significant difference exist in the MUAC measurement of children 12-23 months between the CIMCI implementing and non-implementing communities (p = 0.007). A higher percentage of caregivers (19.3%) introduced complementary feeding earlier than 6 months in the non-implementing area (p < 0.001). Using community level nutritional counseling can greatly improve nutritional status and feeding practices of under five children.

Analysis of the Survival of Children Under Five in Indonesia and Associated Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nur Islami Warrohmah, Annisa; Maniar Berliana, Sarni; Nursalam, Nursalam; Efendi, Ferry; Haryanto, Joni; Has, Eka Misbahatul M.; Ulfiana, Elida; Dwi Wahyuni, Sylvia

2018-02-01

The under-five mortality rate (U5MR) remains a challenge for developing nations, including Indonesia. This study aims to assess the key factors associated with mortality of Indonesian infants using survival analysis. Data taken from 14,727 live-born infants (2007-2012) was examined from the nationally representative Indonesian Demographic Health Survey. The Weibull hazard model was performed to analyse the socioeconomic status and related determinants of infant mortality. The findings indicated that mother factors (education, working status, autonomy, economic status, maternal age at birth, birth interval, type of births, complications, history of previous mortality, breastfeeding, antenatal care and place of delivery); infant factors (birth size); residence; and environmental conditions were associated with the childhood mortality. Rural or urban residence was an important determining factor of infant mortality. For example, considering the factor of a mother’s education, rural educated mothers had a significant association with the survival of their infants. In contrast, there was no significant association between urban educated mothers and their infants’ mortality. The results showed obvious contextual differences which determine the childhood mortality. Socio-demographic and economic factors remain critical in determining the death of infants. This study provides evidence for designing targeted interventions, as well as suggesting specific needs based on the population’s place of residence, in the issue of U5MR. Further interventions should also consider other identified variables while developing programmes to address infant’s needs.

Purchase of drinking water is associated with increased child morbidity and mortality among urban slum-dwelling families in Indonesia.

PubMed

Semba, Richard D; de Pee, Saskia; Kraemer, Klaus; Sun, Kai; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew; Moench-Pfanner, Regina; Sari, Mayang; Akhter, Nasima; Bloem, Martin W

2009-07-01

In developing countries, poor families in urban slums often do not receive municipal services including water. The objectives of our study were to characterize families who purchased drinking water and to examine the relation between purchasing drinking water and child morbidity and mortality in urban slums of Indonesia, using data collected between 1999 and 2003. Of 143,126 families, 46.8% purchased inexpensive drinking water from street vendors, 47.4% did not purchase water, i.e., had running or spring/well water within household, and 5.8% purchased more expensive water in the previous 7 days. Families that purchased inexpensive drinking water had less educated parents, a more crowded household, a father who smoked, and lower socioeconomic level compared with the other families. Among children of families that purchased inexpensive drinking water, did not purchase drinking water, or purchased more expensive water, the prevalence was, respectively, for diarrhea in last 7 days (11.2%, 8.1%, 7.7%), underweight (28.9%, 24.1%, 24.1%), stunting (35.6%, 30.5%, 30.5%), wasting (12.0%, 10.5%, 10.9%), family history of infant mortality (8.0%, 5.6%, 5.1%), and of under-five child mortality (10.4%, 7.1%, 6.4%) (all P<0.0001). Use of inexpensive drinking water was associated with under-five child mortality (Odds Ratio [O.R.] 1.32, 95% Confidence Interval [C.I.] 1.20-1.45, P<0.0001) and diarrhea (O.R. 1.43, 95% C.I. 1.29-1.60, P<0.0001) in multivariate logistic regression models, adjusting for potential confounders. Purchase of inexpensive drinking water was common and associated with greater child malnutrition, diarrhea, and infant and under-five child mortality in the family. Greater efforts must be made to ensure access to safe drinking water, a basic human right and target of the Millennium Development Goals, in urban slums.

The impact of the worldwide Millennium Development Goals campaign on maternal and under-five child mortality reduction: 'Where did the worldwide campaign work most effectively?'

PubMed

Cha, Seungman

2017-01-01

As the Millennium Development Goals campaign (MDGs) came to a close, clear evidence was needed on the contribution of the worldwide MDG campaign. We seek to determine the degree of difference in the reduction rate between the pre-MDG and MDG campaign periods and its statistical significance by region. Unlike the prevailing studies that measured progress in 1990-2010, this study explores by percentage how much MDG progress has been achieved during the MDG campaign period and quantifies the impact of the MDG campaign on the maternal and under-five child mortality reduction during the MDG era by comparing observed values with counterfactual values estimated on the basis of the historical trend. The low accomplishment of sub-Saharan Africa toward the MDG target mainly resulted from the debilitated progress of mortality reduction during 1990-2000, which was not related to the worldwide MDG campaign. In contrast, the other regions had already achieved substantial progress before the Millennium Declaration was proclaimed. Sub-Saharan African countries have seen the most remarkable impact of the worldwide MDG campaign on maternal and child mortality reduction across all different measurements. In sub-Saharan Africa, the MDG campaign has advanced the progress of the declining maternal mortality ratio and under-five mortality rate, respectively, by 4.29 and 4.37 years. Sub-Saharan African countries were frequently labeled as 'off-track', 'insufficient progress', or 'no progress' even though the greatest progress was achieved here during the worldwide MDG campaign period and the impact of the worldwide MDG campaign was most pronounced in this region in all respects. It is time to learn from the success stories of the sub-Saharan African countries. Erroneous and biased measurement should be avoided for the sustainable development goals to progress.

The impact of the worldwide Millennium Development Goals campaign on maternal and under-five child mortality reduction: ‘Where did the worldwide campaign work most effectively?’

PubMed Central

Cha, Seungman

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: As the Millennium Development Goals campaign (MDGs) came to a close, clear evidence was needed on the contribution of the worldwide MDG campaign. Objective: We seek to determine the degree of difference in the reduction rate between the pre-MDG and MDG campaign periods and its statistical significance by region. Design: Unlike the prevailing studies that measured progress in 1990–2010, this study explores by percentage how much MDG progress has been achieved during the MDG campaign period and quantifies the impact of the MDG campaign on the maternal and under-five child mortality reduction during the MDG era by comparing observed values with counterfactual values estimated on the basis of the historical trend. Results: The low accomplishment of sub-Saharan Africa toward the MDG target mainly resulted from the debilitated progress of mortality reduction during 1990–2000, which was not related to the worldwide MDG campaign. In contrast, the other regions had already achieved substantial progress before the Millennium Declaration was proclaimed. Sub-Saharan African countries have seen the most remarkable impact of the worldwide MDG campaign on maternal and child mortality reduction across all different measurements. In sub-Saharan Africa, the MDG campaign has advanced the progress of the declining maternal mortality ratio and under-five mortality rate, respectively, by 4.29 and 4.37 years. Conclusions: Sub-Saharan African countries were frequently labeled as ‘off-track’, ‘insufficient progress’, or ‘no progress’ even though the greatest progress was achieved here during the worldwide MDG campaign period and the impact of the worldwide MDG campaign was most pronounced in this region in all respects. It is time to learn from the success stories of the sub-Saharan African countries. Erroneous and biased measurement should be avoided for the sustainable development goals to progress. PMID:28168932

Can a quality improvement project impact maternal and child health outcomes at scale in northern Ghana?

PubMed

Singh, Kavita; Brodish, Paul; Speizer, Ilene; Barker, Pierre; Amenga-Etego, Issac; Dasoberi, Ireneous; Kanyoke, Ernest; Boadu, Eric A; Yabang, Elma; Sodzi-Tettey, Sodzi

2016-06-16

Quality improvement (QI) interventions are becoming more common in low- and middle-income countries, yet few studies have presented impact evaluations of these approaches. In this paper, we present an impact evaluation of a scale-up phase of 'Project Fives Alive!', a QI intervention in Ghana that aims to improve maternal and child health outcomes. 'Project Fives Alive!' employed a QI methodology to recognize barriers to care-seeking and care provision at the facility level and then to identify, test and implement simple and low-cost local solutions that address the barriers. A quasi-experimental design, multivariable interrupted time series analysis, with data coming from 744 health facilities and controlling for potential confounding factors, was used to study the effect of the project. The key independent variables were the change categories (interventions implemented) and implementation phase - Wave 2a (early phase) versus Wave 2b (later phase). The outcomes studied were early antenatal care (ANC), skilled delivery, facility-level under-five mortality and attendance of underweight infants at child welfare clinics. We stratified the analysis by facility type, namely health posts, health centres and hospitals. Several of the specific change categories were significantly associated with improved outcomes. For example, three of five change categories (early ANC, four or more ANC visits and skilled delivery/immediate postnatal care (PNC)) for health posts and two of five change categories (health education and triage) for hospitals were associated with increased skilled delivery. These change categories were associated with increases in skilled delivery varying from 28% to 58%. PNC changes for health posts and health centres were associated with greater attendance of underweight infants at child welfare clinics. The triage change category was associated with increased early antenatal care in hospitals. Intensity, the number of change categories tested, was associated with increased skilled delivery in health centres and reduced under-five mortality in hospitals. Using an innovative evaluation technique we determined that 'Project Fives Alive!' demonstrated impact at scale for the outcomes studied. The QI approach used by this project should be considered by other low- and middle-income countries in their efforts to improve maternal and child health.

Seasonal variation in child mortality in rural Guinea-Bissau.

PubMed

Nielsen, Bibi Uhre; Byberg, Stine; Aaby, Peter; Rodrigues, Amabelia; Benn, Christine Stabell; Fisker, Ane Baerent

2017-07-01

In many African countries, child mortality is higher in the rainy season than in the dry season. We investigated the effect of season on child mortality by time periods, sex and age in rural Guinea-Bissau. Bandim health project follows children under-five in a health and demographic surveillance system in rural Guinea-Bissau. We compared the mortality in the rainy season (June to November) between 1990 and 2013 with the mortality in the dry season (December to May) in Cox proportional hazards models providing rainy vs. dry season mortality rate ratios (r/d-mrr). Seasonal effects were estimated in strata defined by time periods with different frequency of vaccination campaigns, sex and age (<1 month, 1-11 months, 12-59 months). Verbal autopsies were interpreted using InterVa-4 software. From 1990 to 2013, overall mortality was declined by almost two-thirds among 81 292 children (10 588 deaths). Mortality was 51% (95% ci: 45-58%) higher in the rainy season than in the dry season throughout the study period. The seasonal difference increased significantly with age, the r/d-mrr being 0.94 (0.86-1.03) among neonates, 1.57 (1.46-1.69) in post-neonatal infants and 1.83 (1.72-1.95) in under-five children (P for same effect <0.001). According to the InterVa, malaria deaths were the main reason for the seasonal mortality difference, causing 50% of all deaths in the rainy season, but only if the InterVa included season of death, making the argument self-confirmatory. The mortality declined throughout the study, yet rainy season continued to be associated with 51% higher overall mortality. © 2017 The Authors. Tropical Medicine & International Health Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Epidemiology and control of east coast fever in Zambia. A field trial with traditionally managed Sanga cattle.

PubMed

Minjauw, B; Otte, M J; James, A D

1998-06-29

The main objective of the reported field trial was to compare different East Coast Fever (ECF) control strategies for their efficacy, effect on cattle productivity and cost-effectiveness. Five strategies were tested in groups of traditionally managed Sanga cattle over a period of 2.5 years. Two groups were under intensive tick control, one group immunized by the infection and treatment method and the other non-immunized. Two groups were under no tick control, one group immunized and the other non-immunized (the control group). The fifth group was under strategic tick control and was immunized against ECF. All ECF control methods tested significantly reduced mortality, but no marked differences to the control group were seen in other production parameters. No difference in mortality was observed between animals protected from ECF by immunization or by tick control. The most cost-effective method of controlling the disease was by immunization. A financial analysis showed that under the prevailing conditions the break-even price for immunization ranged from US$21.5 to US$25.7 depending of the proportion of reactors. The carrier state induced by immunization did not lead to a persistent high incidence of ECF in non-immunized animals using the same grazing area.

Levels of Urbanization and Parental Education in Relation to the Mortality Risk of Young Children

PubMed Central

Fang, Hsin-Sheng; Chen, Wei-Ling; Chen, Chiu-Ying; Jia, Chun-Hua; Li, Chung-Yi; Hou, Wen-Hsuan

2015-01-01

Background: The establishment of the National Health Insurance program in Taiwan in 1995 effectively removed the financial barrier to access health care services of Taiwanese people. This population-based cohort study aimed to determine the independent and joint effects of parental education and area urbanization on the mortality risk among children under the universal health insurance coverage in Taiwan since 1995. Methods: We linked 1,501,620 births from 1996 to 2000 to the Taiwan Death Registry to estimate the neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality rates, according to the levels of parental education and urbanization of residential areas. We used a logistic regression model that considers data clustering to estimate the independent and joint effects. Results: Lower levels of parental education and area urbanization exerted an independent effect of mortality on young children, with a stronger magnitude noted for areas with lower levels of urbanization. Children whose parents had lower levels of education and who were born in areas with lower levels of urbanization experienced the highest risk for neonatal (odds ratio (OR) = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.46–1.76), infant (OR = 1.58, 95% CI = 1.48–1.70), and under-five (OR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.61–1.82) mortality. Conclusions: Even with universal health insurance coverage, lower levels of area urbanization and parental education still exerted independent and joint effects on mortality in young children. This finding implies the inadequate accessibility to health care resources for children from socially disadvantaged families and less urbanized areas. PMID:26184248

Effect of commercially available egg cures on the survival of juvenile salmonids

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clements, S.; Chitwood, R.; Schreck, C.B.

2011-01-01

There is some concern that incidental consumption of eggs cured with commercially available cures for the purpose of sport fishing causes mortality in juvenile salmon. We evaluated this by feeding juvenile spring Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) with eggs cured with one of five commercially available cures. We observed significant levels of mortality in both pre-smolts and smolts. Depending on the experiment, 2, 3, or 4 of the cures were associated with mortality. Mortality tended to be higher in the smolts than in the parr, but there was no clear species effect. The majority of mortality occurred within the first 10 d of feeding. Removal of sodium sulfite from the cure significantly reduced the level of mortality. Soaking the eggs prior to feeding did not reduce mortality. We observed a clear relationship between the amount of cured egg consumed each day and the survival time. We conclude that consumption of eggs cured with sodium sulfite has the potential to cause mortality in juvenile steelhead and Chinook salmon in the wild.

Newborn survival in Malawi: a decade of change and future implications.

PubMed

Zimba, Evelyn; Kinney, Mary V; Kachale, Fannie; Waltensperger, Karen Z; Blencowe, Hannah; Colbourn, Tim; George, Joby; Mwansambo, Charles; Joshua, Martias; Chanza, Harriet; Nyasulu, Dorothy; Mlava, Grace; Gamache, Nathalie; Kazembe, Abigail; Lawn, Joy E

2012-07-01

Malawi is one of two low-income sub-Saharan African countries on track to meet the Millennium Development Goal (MDG 4) for child survival despite high fertility and HIV and low health worker density. With neonatal deaths becoming an increasing proportion of under-five deaths, addressing newborn survival is critical for achieving MDG 4. We examine change for newborn survival in the decade 2000-10, analysing mortality and coverage indicators whilst considering other contextual factors. We assess national and donor funding, as well as policy and programme change for newborn survival using standard analyses and tools being applied as part of a multi-country analysis. Compared with the 1990s, progress towards MDG 4 and 5 accelerated considerably from 2000 to 2010. Malawi's neonatal mortality rate (NMR) reduced slower than annual reductions in mortality for children 1-59 months and maternal mortality (NMR reduced 3.5% annually). Yet, the NMR reduced at greater pace than the regional and global averages. A significant increase in facility births and other health system changes, including increased human resources, likely contributed to this decline. High level attention for maternal health and associated comprehensive policy change has provided a platform for a small group of technical and programme experts to link in high impact interventions for newborn survival. The initial entry point for newborn care in Malawi was mainly through facility initiatives, such as Kangaroo Mother Care. This transitioned to an integrated and comprehensive approach at community and facility level through the Community-Based Maternal and Newborn Care package, now being implemented in 17 of 28 districts. Addressing quality gaps, especially for care at birth in facilities, and including newborn interventions in child health programmes, will be critical to the future agenda of newborn survival in Malawi.

RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION AND UNDER-FIVE MORTALITY IN MOZAMBIQUE

PubMed Central

CAU, BOAVENTURA M.; SEVOYAN, ARUSYAK; AGADJANIAN, VICTOR

2015-01-01

Summary The influence of religion on health remains a subject of considerable debate both in developed and developing settings. This study examines the connection between the religious affiliation of the mother and under-five mortality in Mozambique. It uses unique retrospective survey data collected in a predominantly Christian area in Mozambique to compare under-five mortality between children of women affiliated to organised religion and children of non-affiliated women. It finds that mother’s affiliation to any religious organisation, as compared to non-affiliation, has a significant positive effect on child survival net of education and other socio-demographic factors. When the effects of affiliation to specific denominational groups is examined, only affiliation to the Catholic or mainline Protestant churches and affiliation to Apostolic churches are significantly associated with improved child survival. It is argued that the advantages of these groups may be achieved through different mechanisms: the favourable effect on child survival of having mothers affiliated to the Catholic or mainline Protestant churches is likely due to these churches’ stronger connections to the health sector, while the beneficial effect of having an Apostolic mother is probably related to strong social ties and mutual support in Apostolic congregations. The findings thus shed light on multiple pathways through which organised religion can affect child health and survival in sub-Saharan Africa and similar developing settings. PMID:22856881

Current Issues and Priorities in Childhood Nutrition, Growth, and Infections123

PubMed Central

Salam, Rehana A; Das, Jai K; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A

2015-01-01

Forty-five percent of the 6.6 million under-5 deaths in 2012 were attributable to infectious disease, of which pneumonia and diarrhea were the leading causes. Despite the close interrelation between these infections and nutrition conditions, key nutrition interventions for prevention of childhood diarrhea and pneumonia have not received deserved attention, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Several interventions and strategies can effectively address these issues but are not available to those in need. This article discusses in detail the burden and trends of global under-5 mortality, infections, and nutrition conditions; etiology and associated risk factors; biological plausibility and the interrelation between infections, nutrition, and growth; and existing interventions and strategies to reduce major childhood infections and improve nutrition and growth and implications. PMID:25833888

Equity in adherence to and effect of prenatal food and micronutrient supplementation on child mortality: results from the MINIMat randomized trial, Bangladesh

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Evidence is often missing on social differentials in effects of nutrition interventions. We evaluated the adherence to and effect of prenatal food and micronutrient supplementations on mortality before the age of five years in different social groups as defined by maternal schooling. Methods Data came from the MINIMat study (Maternal and Infant Nutrition Interventions, Matlab), a randomized trial of prenatal food supplementation (invitation early, about 9 weeks [E], or at usual time, about 20 weeks [U] of pregnancy) and 30 mg or 60 mg iron with 400 μgm folic acid, or multiple micronutrients (Fe30F, Fe60F, MMS) resulting in six randomization groups, EFe30F, UFe30F, EFe60F, UFe60F, EMMS, and UMMS (n = 4436). Included in analysis after omissions (fetal loss and out-migration) were 3625 women and 3659 live births of which 3591 had information on maternal schooling. The study site was rural Matlab, Bangladesh. The main stratifying variable was maternal schooling dichotomized as <6 years and ≥6 years. We used Cox proportional hazard model for survival analyses. Results Overall, women having <6 years of schooling adhered more to food (81 vs. 69 packets, P=0.0001) but a little less to micronutrient (104 vs. 120 capsules, P = 0.0001) supplementation compared to women having more schooling, adjusted for maternal age (years), parity and body mass index (BMI, kg/m2) at week 8 pregnancy. Children of mothers with ≥6 years of schooling had lower under-five mortality, but the EMMS supplementation reduced the social difference in mortality risk (using standard program and schooling <6 years as reference; standard program and schooling ≥6 years HR 0.54, 95% CI 0.27-1.11; EMMS and schooling ≥6 years HR 0.28, 95% CI 0.12-0.70; EMMS and schooling <6 years HR 0.26, 95% CI 0.11-0.63), adjusted for maternal age (years), parity and body mass index (kg/m2) at week 8 pregnancy. Conclusions The combination of an early invitation to prenatal food supplementation and multiple micronutrient supplementation lowered mortality in children before the age of five years and reduced the gap in child survival chances between social groups. The pattern of adherence to the supplementations was complex; women with less education adhered more to food supplementation while those with more education had higher adherence to micronutrients. Trial registration ISRCTN16581394. PMID:24393610

Freshwater availability and water fetching distance affect child health in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Pickering, Amy J; Davis, Jennifer

2012-02-21

Currently, more than two-thirds of the population in Africa must leave their home to fetch water for drinking and domestic use. The time burden of water fetching has been suggested to influence the volume of water collected by households as well as time spent on income generating activities and child care. However, little is known about the potential health benefits of reducing water fetching distances. Data from almost 200, 000 Demographic and Health Surveys carried out in 26 countries were used to assess the relationship between household walk time to water source and child health outcomes. To estimate the causal effect of decreased water fetching time on health, geographic variation in freshwater availability was employed as an instrumental variable for one-way walk time to water source in a two-stage regression model. Time spent walking to a household's main water source was found to be a significant determinant of under-five child health. A 15-min decrease in one-way walk time to water source is associated with a 41% average relative reduction in diarrhea prevalence, improved anthropometric indicators of child nutritional status, and a 11% relative reduction in under-five child mortality. These results suggest that reducing the time cost of fetching water should be a priority for water infrastructure investments in Africa.

Longevity in Slovenia: Past and potential gains in life expectancy by age and causes of death.

PubMed

Lotrič Dolinar, Aleša; Došenović Bonča, Petra; Sambt, Jože

2017-06-01

In Slovenia, longevity is increasing rapidly. From 1997 to 2014, life expectancy at birth increased by 7 and 5 years for men and women, respectively. This paper explores how this gain in life expectancy at birth can be attributed to reduced mortality from five major groups of causes of death by 5-year age groups. It also estimates potential future gains in life expectancy at birth. The importance of the five major causes of death was analysed by cause-elimination life tables. The total elimination of individual causes of death and a partial hypothetical adjustment of mortality to Spanish levels were analysed, along with age and cause decomposition (Pollard). During the 1997-2014 period, the increase in life expectancy at birth was due to lower mortality from circulatory diseases (ages above 60, both genders), as well as from lower mortality from neoplasms (ages above 50 years) and external causes (between 20 and 50 years) for men. However, considering the potential future gains in life expectancy at birth, by far the strongest effect can be attributed to lower mortality due to circulatory diseases for both genders. If Spanish mortality rates were reached, life expectancy at birth would increase by more than 2 years, again mainly because of lower mortality from circulatory diseases in very old ages. Life expectancy analyses can improve evidence-based decision-making and allocation of resources among different prevention programmes and measures for more effective disease management that can also reduce the economic burden of chronic diseases.

Kerosene-a toddler's sin: A five years study at tertiary care hospital in western India.

PubMed

Parekh, Utsav; Gupta, Sanjay

2017-04-01

Acute kerosene poisoning is a preventable health problem in children perceived mainly in developing countries. It influences socioeconomic and cultural status of country due to its contribution in morbidity and mortality. As kerosene is widely used as household energy source in India at rural areas as well as urban, it accounts for significant number of poisoning cases mainly accidental in manner. As there are only handful studies from India on kerosene poisoning in children, we planned this study to evaluate incidence of kerosene poisoning in Western Indian population and its clinico-epidemiotoxicological profile. In this retrospective cross-sectional study, we collected data of all the cases of kerosene poisoning diagnosed during five years from 2009 to 2013 at Shri Krishna hospital situated at Karamsad, Gujarat state of Western India. We observed among total 42 cases, all victims were under 3 years of age. Evening in summer months, rural areas, storage of kerosene in household containers, inadequate parental supervision and door-to-hospitalization period emerged as most serious associated factors. Fever, cough, vomiting, tachypnoea and leucocytosis were commonest manifestations while pneumonia was the most common complication. Signs of central nervous system involvement, leucocytosis and vomiting were significantly correlated with pneumonia. Deaths occurred due to pneumonia. Early diagnosis and treatment of pneumonia may reduce mortality and recommendations are made to reduce the incidence of kerosene poisoning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Linking high parity and maternal and child mortality: what is the impact of lower health services coverage among higher order births?

PubMed

Sonneveldt, Emily; DeCormier Plosky, Willyanne; Stover, John

2013-01-01

A number of data sets show that high parity births are associated with higher child mortality than low parity births. The reasons for this relationship are not clear. In this paper we investigate whether high parity is associated with lower coverage of key health interventions that might lead to increased mortality. We used DHS data from 10 high fertility countries to examine the relationship between parity and coverage for 8 child health intervention and 9 maternal health interventions. We also used the LiST model to estimate the effect on maternal and child mortality of the lower coverage associated with high parity births. Our results show a significant relationship between coverage of maternal and child health services and birth order, even when controlling for poverty. The association between coverage and parity for maternal health interventions was more consistently significant across countries all countries, while for child health interventions there were fewer overall significant relationships and more variation both between and within countries. The differences in coverage between children of parity 3 and those of parity 6 are large enough to account for a 12% difference in the under-five mortality rate and a 22% difference in maternal mortality ratio in the countries studied. This study shows that coverage of key health interventions is lower for high parity children and the pattern is consistent across countries. This could be a partial explanation for the higher mortality rates associated with high parity. Actions to address this gap could help reduce the higher mortality experienced by high parity birth.

Accelerating Maternal and Child Health Gains in Papua New Guinea: Modelled Predictions from Closing the Equity Gap Using LiST.

PubMed

Byrne, Abbey; Hodge, Andrew; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana

2015-11-01

Many priority countries in the countdown to the millennium development goals deadline are lagging in progress towards maternal and child health (MCH) targets. Papua New Guinea (PNG) is one such country beset by challenges of geographical inaccessibility, inequity and health system weakness. Several countries, however, have made progress through focused initiatives which align with the burden of disease and overcome specific inequities. This study identifies the potential impact on maternal and child mortality through increased coverage of prioritised interventions within the PNG health system. The burden of disease and health system environment of PNG was documented to inform prioritised MCH interventions at community, outreach, and clinical levels. Potential reductions in maternal and child mortality through increased intervention coverage to close the geographical equity gap were estimated with the lives saved tool. A set community-level interventions, with highest feasibility, would yield significant reductions in newborn and child mortality. Adding the outreach group delivers gains for maternal mortality, particularly through family planning. The clinical services group of interventions demands greater investment but are essential to reach MCH targets. Cumulatively, the increased coverage is estimated to reduce the rates of under-five mortality by 19 %, neonatal mortality by 26 %, maternal mortality ratio by 10 % and maternal mortality by 33 %. Modest investments in health systems focused on disadvantaged populations can accelerate progress in maternal and child survival even in fragile health systems like PNG. The critical approach may be to target interventions and implementation appropriately to the sensitive context of lagging countries.

Postnatal care for newborns in Bangladesh: The importance of health-related factors and location.

PubMed

Singh, Kavita; Brodish, Paul; Chowdhury, Mahbub Elahi; Biswas, Taposh Kumar; Kim, Eunsoo Timothy; Godwin, Christine; Moran, Allisyn

2017-12-01

Bangladesh achieved Millennium Development Goal 4, a two thirds reduction in under-five mortality from 1990 to 2015. However neonatal mortality remains high, and neonatal deaths now account for 62% of under-five deaths in Bangladesh. The objective of this paper is to understand which newborns in Bangladesh are receiving postnatal care (PNC), a set of interventions with the potential to reduce neonatal mortality. Using data from the Bangladesh Maternal Mortality Survey (BMMS) 2010 we conducted logistic regression analysis to understand what socio-economic and health-related factors were associated with early postnatal care (PNC) by day 2 and PNC by day 7. Key variables studied were maternal complications (during pregnancy, delivery or after delivery) and contact with the health care system (receipt of any antenatal care, place of delivery and type of delivery attendant). Using data from the BMMS 2010 and an Emergency Obstetric and Neonatal Care (EmONC) 2012 needs assessment, we also presented descriptive maps of PNC coverage overlaid with neonatal mortality rates. There were several significant findings from the regression analysis. Newborns of mothers having a skilled delivery were significantly more likely to receive PNC (Day 7: OR = 2.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.81, 2.58; Day 2: OR = 2.11, 95% 95% CI 1.76). Newborns of mothers who reported a complication were also significantly more likely to receive PNC with odds ratios varying between 1.3 and 1.6 for complications at the different points along the continuum of care. Urban residence and greater wealth were also significantly associated with PNC. The maps provided visual images of wide variation in PNC coverage and indicated that districts with the highest PNC coverage, did not necessarily have the lowest neonatal mortality rates. Newborns of mothers who had a skilled delivery or who experienced a complication were more likely to receive PNC than newborns of mothers with a home delivery or who did not report a complication. Given that the majority of women in Bangladesh have a home delivery, strategies are needed to reach their newborns with PNC. Greater focus is also needed to reach poor women in rural areas. Engaging community health workers to conduct home PNC visits may be an interim strategy as Bangladesh strives to increase skilled delivery coverage.

Measuring Iran's success in achieving Millennium Development Goal 4: a systematic analysis of under-5 mortality at national and subnational levels from 1990 to 2015.

PubMed

Mohammadi, Younes; Parsaeian, Mahboubeh; Mehdipour, Parinaz; Khosravi, Ardeshir; Larijani, Bagher; Sheidaei, Ali; Mansouri, Anita; Kasaeian, Amir; Yazdani, Kamran; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Kazemi, Elaheh; Aghamohamadi, Saeide; Rezaei, Nazila; Chegini, Maryam; Haghshenas, Rosa; Jamshidi, Hamidreza; Delavari, Farnaz; Asadi-Lari, Mohsen; Farzadfar, Farshad

2017-05-01

Child mortality as one of the key Millennium Development Goals (MDG 4-to reduce child mortality by two-thirds from 1990 to 2015), is included in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 3, target 2-to reduce child mortality to fewer than 25 deaths per 1000 livebirths for all countries by 2030), and is a key indicator of the health system in every country. In this study, we aimed to estimate the level and trend of child mortality from 1990 to 2015 in Iran, to assess the progress of the country and its provinces toward these goals. We used three different data sources: three censuses, a Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), and 5-year data from the death registration system. We used the summary birth history data from four data sources (the three censuses and DHS) and used maternal age cohort and maternal age period methods to estimate the trends in child mortality rates, combining the estimates of these two indirect methods using Loess regression. We also used the complete birth history method to estimate child mortality rate directly from DHS data. Finally, to synthesise different trends into a single trend and calculate uncertainty intervals (UI), we used Gaussian process regression. Under-5 mortality rates (deaths per 1000 livebirths) at the national level in Iran in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2015 were 63·6 (95% UI 63·1-64·0), 38·8 (38·5-39·2), 24·9 (24·3-25·4), and 19·4 (18·6-20·2), respectively. Between 1990 and 2015, the median annual reduction and total overall reduction in these rates were 4·9% and 70%, respectively. At the provincial level, the difference between the highest and lowest child mortality rates in 1990, 2000, and 2015 were 65·6, 40·4, and 38·1 per 1000 livebirths, respectively. Based on the MDG 4 goal, five provinces had not decreased child mortality by two-thirds by 2015. Furthermore, six provinces had not reached SDG 3 (target 2). Iran and most of its provinces achieved MDG 4 and SDG 3 (target 2) goals by 2015. However, at the subnational level in some provinces, there is substantial inequity. Local policy makers should use effective strategies to accelerate the reduction of child mortality for these provinces by 2030. Possible recommendations for such strategies include enhancing the level of education and health literacy among women, tackling sex discrimination, and improving incomes for families. Iran Ministry of Health and Education. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

PubMed Central

Hayhoe, Katharine; Cayan, Daniel; Field, Christopher B.; Frumhoff, Peter C.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Miller, Norman L.; Moser, Susanne C.; Schneider, Stephen H.; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Cleland, Elsa E.; Dale, Larry; Drapek, Ray; Hanemann, R. Michael; Kalkstein, Laurence S.; Lenihan, James; Lunch, Claire K.; Neilson, Ronald P.; Sheridan, Scott C.; Verville, Julia H.

2004-01-01

The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50–75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30–70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75–90%; and snowpack declines 73–90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades. PMID:15314227

The impact of democracy and media freedom on under-5 mortality, 1961-2011.

PubMed

Wigley, Simon; Akkoyunlu-Wigley, Arzu

2017-10-01

Do democracies produce better health outcomes for children than autocracies? We argue that (1) democratic governments have an incentive to reduce child mortality among low-income families and (2) that media freedom enhances their ability to deliver mortality-reducing resources to the poorest. A panel of 167 countries for the years 1961-2011 is used to test those two theoretical claims. We find that level of democracy is negatively associated with under-5 mortality, and that that negative association is greater in the presence of media freedom. These results are robust to the inclusion of country and year fixed effects, time-varying control variables, and the multiple imputation of missing values. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Double-stranded RNA uptake through topical application, mediates silencing of five CYP4 genes and suppresses insecticide resistance in Diaphorina citri.

PubMed

Killiny, Nabil; Hajeri, Subhas; Tiwari, Siddharth; Gowda, Siddarame; Stelinski, Lukasz L

2014-01-01

Silencing of genes through RNA interference (RNAi) in insects has gained momentum during the past few years. RNAi has been used to cause insect mortality, inhibit insect growth, increase insecticide susceptibility, and prevent the development of insecticide resistance. We investigated the efficacy of topically applied dsRNA to induce RNAi for five Cytochrome P450 genes family 4 (CYP4) in Diaphorina citri. We previously reported that these CYP4 genes are associated with the development of insecticide resistance in D. citri. We targeted five CYP4 genes that share a consensus sequence with one dsRNA construct. Quantitative PCR confirmed suppressed expression of the five CYP4 genes as a result of dsRNA topically applied to the thoracic region of D. citri when compared to the expression levels in a control group. Western blot analysis indicated a reduced signal of cytochrome P450 proteins (45 kDa) in adult D. citri treated with the dsRNA. In addition, oxidase activity and insecticide resistance were reduced for D. citri treated with dsRNA that targeted specific CYP4 genes. Mortality was significantly higher in adults treated with dsRNA than in adults treated with water. Our results indicate that topically applied dsRNA can penetrate the cuticle of D. citri and induce RNAi. These results broaden the scope of RNAi as a mechanism to manage pests by targeting a broad range of genes. The results also support the application of RNAi as a viable tool to overcome insecticide resistance development in D. citri populations. However, further research is needed to develop grower-friendly delivery systems for the application of dsRNA under field conditions. Considering the high specificity of dsRNA, this tool can also be used for management of D. citri by targeting physiologically critical genes involved in growth and development.

Double-Stranded RNA Uptake through Topical Application, Mediates Silencing of Five CYP4 Genes and Suppresses Insecticide Resistance in Diaphorina citri

PubMed Central

Killiny, Nabil; Hajeri, Subhas; Tiwari, Siddharth; Gowda, Siddarame; Stelinski, Lukasz L.

2014-01-01

Silencing of genes through RNA interference (RNAi) in insects has gained momentum during the past few years. RNAi has been used to cause insect mortality, inhibit insect growth, increase insecticide susceptibility, and prevent the development of insecticide resistance. We investigated the efficacy of topically applied dsRNA to induce RNAi for five Cytochrome P450 genes family 4 (CYP4) in Diaphorina citri. We previously reported that these CYP4 genes are associated with the development of insecticide resistance in D. citri. We targeted five CYP4 genes that share a consensus sequence with one dsRNA construct. Quantitative PCR confirmed suppressed expression of the five CYP4 genes as a result of dsRNA topically applied to the thoracic region of D. citri when compared to the expression levels in a control group. Western blot analysis indicated a reduced signal of cytochrome P450 proteins (45 kDa) in adult D. citri treated with the dsRNA. In addition, oxidase activity and insecticide resistance were reduced for D. citri treated with dsRNA that targeted specific CYP4 genes. Mortality was significantly higher in adults treated with dsRNA than in adults treated with water. Our results indicate that topically applied dsRNA can penetrate the cuticle of D. citri and induce RNAi. These results broaden the scope of RNAi as a mechanism to manage pests by targeting a broad range of genes. The results also support the application of RNAi as a viable tool to overcome insecticide resistance development in D. citri populations. However, further research is needed to develop grower-friendly delivery systems for the application of dsRNA under field conditions. Considering the high specificity of dsRNA, this tool can also be used for management of D. citri by targeting physiologically critical genes involved in growth and development. PMID:25330026

Prolonged experimental drought reduces plant hydraulic conductance and transpiration and increases mortality in a piñon-juniper woodland.

PubMed

Pangle, Robert E; Limousin, Jean-Marc; Plaut, Jennifer A; Yepez, Enrico A; Hudson, Patrick J; Boutz, Amanda L; Gehres, Nathan; Pockman, William T; McDowell, Nate G

2015-04-01

Plant hydraulic conductance (k s) is a critical control on whole-plant water use and carbon uptake and, during drought, influences whether plants survive or die. To assess long-term physiological and hydraulic responses of mature trees to water availability, we manipulated ecosystem-scale water availability from 2007 to 2013 in a piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma) woodland. We examined the relationship between k s and subsequent mortality using more than 5 years of physiological observations, and the subsequent impact of reduced hydraulic function and mortality on total woody canopy transpiration (E C) and conductance (G C). For both species, we observed significant reductions in plant transpiration (E) and k s under experimentally imposed drought. Conversely, supplemental water additions increased E and k s in both species. Interestingly, both species exhibited similar declines in k s under the imposed drought conditions, despite their differing stomatal responses and mortality patterns during drought. Reduced whole-plant k s also reduced carbon assimilation in both species, as leaf-level stomatal conductance (g s) and net photosynthesis (A n) declined strongly with decreasing k s. Finally, we observed that chronically low whole-plant k s was associated with greater canopy dieback and mortality for both piñon and juniper and that subsequent reductions in woody canopy biomass due to mortality had a significant impact on both daily and annual canopy E C and G C. Our data indicate that significant reductions in k s precede drought-related tree mortality events in this system, and the consequence is a significant reduction in canopy gas exchange and carbon fixation. Our results suggest that reductions in productivity and woody plant cover in piñon-juniper woodlands can be expected due to reduced plant hydraulic conductance and increased mortality of both piñon pine and juniper under anticipated future conditions of more frequent and persistent regional drought in the southwestern United States.

Prolonged experimental drought reduces plant hydraulic conductance and transpiration and increases mortality in a piñon–juniper woodland

PubMed Central

Pangle, Robert E; Limousin, Jean-Marc; Plaut, Jennifer A; Yepez, Enrico A; Hudson, Patrick J; Boutz, Amanda L; Gehres, Nathan; Pockman, William T; McDowell, Nate G

2015-01-01

Plant hydraulic conductance (ks) is a critical control on whole-plant water use and carbon uptake and, during drought, influences whether plants survive or die. To assess long-term physiological and hydraulic responses of mature trees to water availability, we manipulated ecosystem-scale water availability from 2007 to 2013 in a piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma) woodland. We examined the relationship between ks and subsequent mortality using more than 5 years of physiological observations, and the subsequent impact of reduced hydraulic function and mortality on total woody canopy transpiration (EC) and conductance (GC). For both species, we observed significant reductions in plant transpiration (E) and ks under experimentally imposed drought. Conversely, supplemental water additions increased E and ks in both species. Interestingly, both species exhibited similar declines in ks under the imposed drought conditions, despite their differing stomatal responses and mortality patterns during drought. Reduced whole-plant ks also reduced carbon assimilation in both species, as leaf-level stomatal conductance (gs) and net photosynthesis (An) declined strongly with decreasing ks. Finally, we observed that chronically low whole-plant ks was associated with greater canopy dieback and mortality for both piñon and juniper and that subsequent reductions in woody canopy biomass due to mortality had a significant impact on both daily and annual canopy EC and GC. Our data indicate that significant reductions in ks precede drought-related tree mortality events in this system, and the consequence is a significant reduction in canopy gas exchange and carbon fixation. Our results suggest that reductions in productivity and woody plant cover in piñon–juniper woodlands can be expected due to reduced plant hydraulic conductance and increased mortality of both piñon pine and juniper under anticipated future conditions of more frequent and persistent regional drought in the southwestern United States. PMID:25937906

Childhood mortality after a high dose of vitamin A in a high risk population.

PubMed Central

Daulaire, N. M.; Starbuck, E. S.; Houston, R. M.; Church, M. S.; Stukel, T. A.; Pandey, M. R.

1992-01-01

OBJECTIVES--To determine whether a single high dose of vitamin A given to all children in communities with high mortality and malnutrition could affect mortality and to assess whether periodic community wide supplementation could be readily incorporated into an ongoing primary health programme. DESIGN--Opportunistic controlled trial. SETTING--Jumla district, Nepal. SUBJECTS--All children aged under 5 years; 3786 in eight subdistricts given single dose of vitamin A and 3411 in remaining eight subdistricts given no supplementation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Mortality and cause of death in the five months after supplementation. RESULTS--Risk of death for children aged 1-59 months in supplemented communities was 26% lower (relative risk 0.74, 95% confidence interval 0.55 to 0.99) than in unsupplemented communities. The reduction in mortality was greatest among children aged 6-11 months: death rate (deaths/1000 child years at risk) was 133.8 in supplemented children and 260.8 in unsupplemented children (relative risk 0.51, 0.30 to 0.89). The death rate from diarrhoea was also reduced (63.5 supplemented v 97.5 unsupplemented; relative risk 0.65, 0.44 to 0.95). The extra cost per death averted was about $11. CONCLUSION--The results support a role for Vitamin A in increasing child survival. The supplementation programme was readily integrated with the ongoing community health programme at little extra cost. PMID:1739794

Control of deaths from diarrheal disease in rural communities. I. Design of an intervention study and effects on child mortality.

PubMed

Kielmann, A A; Mobarak, A B; Hammamy, M T; Gomaa, A I; Abou-el-Saad, S; Lotfi, R K; Mazen, I; Nagaty, A

1985-12-01

From May through October 1980, the "Strengthening Rural Health Delivery" project (SRHD) under the Rural Health Department of the Ministry of Health of Egypt had conducted an investigation into prevention of child mortality from diarrheal disease through testing various modules of Oral Rehydration Therapy delivery mechanisms. In a six-cell design counting a total of almost 29,000 children, ORT was provided both as hypotonic sucrose/salt solution prepared and administered by mothers and normotonic, balanced electrolyte solution in the hands of both mothers and health care providers and the effects on child mortality during the peak season of diarrheal incidence were measured. In addition, utilization and effects of ORT when made readily available through commercial channels was similarly examined. A cost-benefit analysis was performed on the cost of the services as well as on the outcome for each of five study cells using the sixth, the control, as reference. Results showed that early rehydration with a sucrose/salt solution in the hands of mothers, backed by balanced oral rehydration solution in the hands of health care providers proved the most cost-effective means of reducing diarrhea-specific mortality as well as being as safe as prepackaged commercial preparations.

Modeling the population-level effects of hypoxia on a coastal fish: implications of a spatially-explicit individual-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, K.; Creekmore, S.; Thomas, P.; Craig, K.; Neilan, R.; Rahman, S.; Wang, L.; Justic, D.

2016-02-01

The northwestern Gulf of Mexico (USA) currently experiences a large hypoxic area ("dead zone") during the summer. The population-level effects of hypoxia on coastal fish are largely unknown. We developed a spatially-explicit, individual-based model to analyze how hypoxia effects on reproduction, growth, and mortality of individual Atlantic croaker could lead to population-level responses. The model follows the hourly growth, mortality, reproduction, and movement of individuals on a 300 x 800 spatial grid of 1 km2 cells for 140 years. Chlorophyll-a concentration and water temperature were specified daily for each grid cell. Dissolved oxygen (DO) was obtained from a 3-D water quality model for four years that differed in their severity of hypoxia. A bioenergetics model was used to represent growth, mortality was assumed stage- and age-dependent, and movement behavior was based on temperature preferences and avoidance of low DO. Hypoxia effects were imposed using exposure-effects sub-models that converted time-varying exposure to DO to reductions in growth and fecundity, and increases in mortality. Using sequences of mild, intermediate, and severe hypoxia years, the model predicted a 20% decrease in population abundance. Additional simulations were performed under the assumption that river-based nutrients loadings that lead to more hypoxia also lead to higher primary production and more food for croaker. Twenty-five percent and 50% nutrient reduction scenarios were simulated by adjusting the cholorphyll-a concentrations used as food proxy for the croaker. We then incrementally increased the DO concentrations to determine how much hypoxia would need to be reduced to offset the lower food production resulting from reduced nutrients. We discuss the generality of our results, the hidden effects of hypoxia on fish, and our overall strategy of combining laboratory and field studies with modeling to produce robust predictions of population responses to stressors under dynamic and multi-stressor conditions.

Gender bias in under-five mortality in low/middle-income countries.

PubMed

Costa, Janaína Calu; da Silva, Inacio Crochemore Mohnsam; Victora, Cesar Gomes

2017-01-01

Due to biological reasons, boys are more likely to die than girls. The detection of gender bias requires knowing the expected relation between male and female mortality rates at different levels of overall mortality, in the absence of discrimination. Our objective was to compare two approaches aimed at assessing excess female under-five mortality rate (U5MR) in low/middle-income countries. We compared the two approaches using data from 60 Demographic and Health Surveys (2005-2014). The prescriptive approach compares observed mortality rates with historical patterns in Western societies where gender discrimination was assumed to be low or absent. The descriptive approach is derived from global estimates of all countries with available data, including those affected by gender bias. The prescriptive approach showed significant excess female U5MR in 20 countries, compared with only one country according to the descriptive approach. Nevertheless, both models showed similar country rankings. The 13 countries with the highest and the 10 countries with the lowest rankings were the same according to both approaches. Differences in excess female mortality among world regions were significant, but not among country income groups. Both methods are useful for monitoring time trends, detecting gender-based inequalities and identifying and addressing its causes. The prescriptive approach seems to be more sensitive in the identification of gender bias, but needs to be updated using data from populations with current-day structures of causes of death.

Urate oxidase for the prevention and treatment of tumour lysis syndrome in children with cancer.

PubMed

Cheuk, Daniel K L; Chiang, Alan K S; Chan, Godfrey C F; Ha, Shau Yin

2014-08-14

Tumour lysis syndrome (TLS) is a serious complication of malignancies and can result in renal failure or death. Preliminary reports suggest that urate oxidase is effective in reducing serum uric acid, the build-up of which causes TLS. It is uncertain whether high-quality evidence exists to support its routine use in children with malignancies. To assess the effects and safety of urate oxidase for the prevention and treatment of TLS in children with malignancies. This is an update of the original review. We performed a comprehensive search of the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (in The Cochrane Library issue 1, 2013), MEDLINE (1966 to February 2013), Embase (1980 to February 2013), and CINAHL (1982 to February 2013). In addition, we searched the reference lists of all identified relevant papers. We also explored other internet sources (updated search on 26 February 2013): the NHS' National Research Register, the US National Institutes of Health Ongoing Trials Register, the metaRegister of Controlled Trials, and ProQuest Dissertations & Theses Database. We also screened conference proceedings of the American Society of Clinical Oncology, the European Society for Medical Oncology, and the International Society of Paediatric Oncology meetings from 1993 to 2012. Finally, we contacted experts in the field and the manufacturer of rasburicase, Sanofi-aventis. Randomised controlled trials (RCT) and controlled clinical trials (CCT) of urate oxidase for the prevention or treatment of TLS in children under 18 years with any malignancy. Two review authors independently extracted trial data and assessed individual trial quality. We used risk ratios (RR) for dichotomous data and mean difference (MD) for continuous data. We included seven trials, involving 471 participants in the treatment groups and 603 participants in the control groups. One RCT and five CCTs compared urate oxidase and allopurinol. Three trials tested Uricozyme, and three trials tested rasburicase for the prevention of TLS.The RCT showed no significant difference in mortality (both all-cause mortality and mortality due to TLS), renal failure, and adverse effects between the treatment and the control groups. The frequency of normalisation of uric acid at four hours (Fisher's exact test P < 0.001) and area under curve of uric acid at four days (MD -201.00 mg/dLhr, 95% confidence interval (CI) -258.05 mg/dLhr to -143.95 mg/dLhr; P < 0.00001) were significantly better in the treatment group. The trial did not evaluate the primary outcome (incidence of clinical TLS).Pooled results of three CCTs showed significantly lower mortality due to TLS in the treatment group (RR 0.05, 95% CI 0.00 to 0.89; P = 0.04); all-cause mortality was not significantly different between the groups. Pooled results from five CCTs showed significantly lower incidence of renal failure in the treatment group (RR 0.26, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.89; P = 0.03). Results of CCTs also showed significantly lower uric acid in the treatment group at two days (three CCTs), three days (two CCTs), four days (two CCTs), and seven days (one CCT) after therapy, but not one day (three CCTs), five days (one CCT), and 12 days (one CCT) after therapy. Pooled results from three CCTs showed higher frequency of adverse effects in participants who received urate oxidase (RR 9.10, 95% CI 1.29 to 64.00; P = 0.03). One CCT evaluated the primary outcome; no significant difference was identified.Another included RCT, with 30 participants, compared different doses of rasburicase (0.2 mg/kg versus 0.15 mg/kg), which demonstrated no significant difference in uric acid normalisation and uric acid level at four hours). Common adverse events of urate oxidase included hypersensitivity, haemolysis, and anaemia, but no significant difference between treatment groups was identified. No significant difference in mortality (all-cause mortality and mortality due to TLS) and renal failure was identified. The primary outcome was not evaluated.All included trials were highly susceptible to biases. Although urate oxidase might be effective in reducing serum uric acid, it is unclear whether it reduces clinical tumour lysis syndrome, renal failure, or mortality. Adverse effects might be more common for urate oxidase compared with allopurinol. Clinicians should weigh the potential benefits of reducing uric acid and uncertain benefits of preventing mortality or renal failure from TLS against the potential risk of adverse effects.

Inequality in child mortality across different states of India: a comparative study.

PubMed

De, Partha; Dhar, Arpita

2013-12-01

The burden of social inequality falls disproportionately on child health and survival. This inequality raises the question of how wide this gap is, or what its relation is with the level of child mortality. Whether these disparities are increasing or declining with the development and how they differ from region to region or from state to state within the country needs to be looked into. As a measure of inequality and to compare the disparities between different states of India, concentration curves and indices are constructed from infant and under five mortality data classified under different quintiles of wealth index from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-3) data of India. Inequality measures indicate that inequality in child mortality is more concentrated in the comparatively developed states than the poorer states in India.

Heat-related mortality projections for cardiovascular and respiratory disease under the changing climate in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Li, Tiantian; Ban, Jie; Horton, Radley M; Bader, Daniel A; Huang, Ganlin; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L

2015-08-06

Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21(st) century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

Heat-related mortality projections for cardiovascular and respiratory disease under the changing climate in Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tiantian; Ban, Jie; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Huang, Ganlin; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

2015-08-01

Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21st century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

Heat-related mortality projections for cardiovascular and respiratory disease under the changing climate in Beijing, China

PubMed Central

Li, Tiantian; Ban, Jie; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Huang, Ganlin; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

2015-01-01

Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21st century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks. PMID:26247438

Child Survival Strategies: Assessment of Knowledge and Practice of Rural Women of Reproductive Age in Cross River State, Nigeria.

PubMed

Etokidem, Aniekan Jumbo; Johnson, Ofonime

2016-01-01

Introduction . Nigeria is one of the five countries that account for about 50% of under-five mortality in the world. The objective of this study was to assess the knowledge and practice of child survival strategies among rural community caregivers in Cross River State of Nigeria. Materials and Methods . This descriptive cross-sectional survey used a pretested questionnaire to obtain information from 150 women of reproductive age. Data analysis was done using SPSS version 20. Results . The child survival strategy known to most of the respondents was oral rehydration therapy as indicated by 98% followed by female education by 73.3% and immunization by 67.3%. Only 20% of the respondents had adequate knowledge of frequency of weighing a child while only 32.7% knew that breastfeeding should be continued even if the child had diarrhea. More respondents with nonformal education (83.3%) practiced exclusive breastfeeding of their last children compared to respondents with primary education (77.3%), secondary education (74.2%), and tertiary education (72.2%). Conclusion . Although respondents demonstrated adequate knowledge and practice of most of the strategies, there was evidence of gaps, including myths and misconceptions that could mar efforts towards reducing child morbidity and mortality in the state.

Analysis of the association between millennium development goals 4 & 5 and the physician workforce across international economic strata.

PubMed

Morley, Christopher P; Wang, Dongliang; Mader, Emily M; Plante, Kyle P; Kingston, Lindsey N; Rabiei, Azadeh

2017-07-18

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are 8 international development goals voluntarily adopted by 189 nations. The goals included health related aims to reduce the under-five child mortality rate by two-thirds (MDG4), and to reduce the maternal mortality ratio by three-quarters (MDG5). To assess the relationship between the healthcare workforce and MDGs 4-5, we examined the physician workforces of countries around the globe, in terms of the Physician Density Level (PDL, or number of physicians per 1000 population), and compared this rate across a number of years to several indicator variables specified as markers of progress towards MDG4 and MDG5. Data for each variable of interest were obtained from the World Bank's Millennium Development Goals and World Development Indicators databases for 208 countries and territories from 2004 to 2014, representing a ten-year period for which the most information is available. We analyzed the relationships between MDG outcomes and PDL, controlling for national income levels and other covariates, using linear mixed model regression. Dependent variables were logarithmically transformed to meet assumptions necessary for multivariate analysis. In unadjusted models, an increase of every one physician per 1000 population (one unit change in PDL) lowered the risk of not being vaccinated for measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) to 29.3% (p < 0.001, 95% CI: 22.2%-38.7%) and for not receiving diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTaP) vaccination rate decreased to 38.5% (p < 0.001, 95% CI: 28.7% - 51.7%). Maternal mortality rate decreased to 76.6% (p < 0.001, 95% CI: 74.3% - 79.0%), neonatal mortality decreased to 58.8% (p < 0.001, 95% CI: 54.8% - 63.2%) and under-5 mortality rate decreased to 52.1% (p < 0.001, 95% CI: 48.0% - 56.4%), with every one-unit change in PDL. Adjusted models tended to reflect unadjusted risk assessments. The maintenance and improvement of the health workforce is a vital consideration when assessing how to achieve global development goals related to health outcomes.

Get the Basics Right: A Description of the Key Priorities for Establishing a Neonatal Service in a Resource-Limited Setting in Cambodia.

PubMed

Fox-Lewis, Shivani; Genasci Smith, Wyatt; Lor, Vary; McKellar, Gregor; Phal, Chea; Fox-Lewis, Andrew; Turner, Paul; Neou, Leakhena; Turner, Claudia

2018-05-28

Worldwide, reduction in under-five mortality has not sufficiently included neonates, who represent 45% of deaths in children of age under five years. The least progress has been observed in resource-limited settings. This mixed methods study conducted at a Cambodian non-governmental paediatric hospital described the key priorities of the ongoing neonatal service. Routinely collected data from the hospital and microbiology databases included the number of admissions, discharges and deaths and the number of cases of bacteraemias (2011-2016). Semi-structured interviews with the management staff explored the essential features of the service. There were 2127 neonatal admissions and 247 deaths. The incidence of facility-based neonatal mortality decreased by 81%. Bacteraemic healthcare-associated infections decreased by 68%. A dedicated area for neonatal care was perceived as crucial, allowing better infection control and delivery of staff training. In this hospital, the neonatal service prioritized basic measures, particularly, having a dedicated neonatal area. Facility-based mortality and bacteraemic healthcare-associated infections decreased.

Associations between malaria-related ideational factors and care-seeking behavior for fever among children under five in Mali, Nigeria, and Madagascar.

PubMed

Do, Mai; Babalola, Stella; Awantang, Grace; Toso, Michael; Lewicky, Nan; Tompsett, Andrew

2018-01-01

Malaria remains one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among children under five years old in many low- and middle-income countries. In this study, we examined how malaria-related ideational factors may influence care-seeking behavior among female caregivers of children under five with fever. Data came from population-based surveys conducted in 2014-2015 by U.S. Agency for International Development-funded surveys in Madagascar, Mali, and Nigeria. The outcome of interest was whether a child under five with fever within two weeks prior to the survey was brought to a formal health facility for care. Results show a wide variation in care-seeking practices for children under five with fever across countries. Seeking care for febrile children under five in the formal health sector is far from a norm in the study countries. Important ideational factors associated with care-seeking behavior included caregivers' perceived social norms regarding treatment of fever among children under five in Nigeria and Madagascar, and caregiver's knowledge of the cause of malaria in Mali. Findings indicate that messages aimed to increase malaria-related knowledge should be tailored to the specific country, and that interventions designed to influence social norms about care-seeking are likely to result in increased care-seeking behavior for fever in children under five.

The effect of household heads training about the use of treated bed nets on the burden of malaria and anaemia in under-five children: a cluster randomized trial in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Deribew, Amare; Birhanu, Zewdie; Sena, Lelisa; Dejene, Tariku; Reda, Ayalu A; Sudhakar, Morankar; Alemseged, Fessehaye; Tessema, Fasil; Zeynudin, Ahmed; Biadgilign, Sibhatu; Deribe, Kebede

2012-01-06

Long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets (LLITN) have demonstrated a significant effect in reducing malaria-related morbidity and mortality. However, barriers on the utilization of LLITN have hampered the desired outcomes. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of community empowerment on the burden of malaria and anaemia in under-five children in Ethiopia. A cluster randomized trial was done in 22 (11 intervention and 11 control) villages in south-west Ethiopia. The intervention consisted of tailored training of household heads about the proper use of LLITN and community network system. The burden of malaria and anaemia in under-five children was determined through mass blood investigation at baseline, six and 12 months of the project period. Cases of malaria and anaemia were treated based on the national protocol. The burden of malaria and anaemia between the intervention and control villages was compared using the complex logistic regression model by taking into account the clustering effect. Eight Focus group discussions were conducted to complement the quantitative findings. A total of 2,105 household heads received the intervention and the prevalence of malaria and anaemia was assessed among 2410, 2037 and 2612 under-five children at baseline, six and 12 months of the project period respectively. During the high transmission/epidemic season, children in the intervention arm were less likely to have malaria as compared to children in the control arm (OR = 0.42; 95%CI: 0.32, 0.57). Symptomatic malaria also steadily declined in the intervention villages compared to the control villages in the follow up periods. Children in the intervention arm were less likely to be anaemic compared to those in the control arm both at the high (OR = 0.84; 95%CI: 0.71, 0.99)) and low (OR = 0.73; 95%CI: 0.60, 0.89) transmission seasons. Training of household heads on the utilization of LLITN significantly reduces the burden of malaria in under-five children. The Ministry of Health of Ethiopia in collaboration with other partners should design similar strategies in high-risk areas to control malaria in Ethiopia. Australia and New Zealand Clinical Trials Register (ANZCTR): ACTRN12610000035022.

A regional multilevel analysis: can skilled birth attendants uniformly decrease neonatal mortality?

PubMed

Singh, Kavita; Brodish, Paul; Suchindran, Chirayath

2014-01-01

Globally 40 % of deaths to children under-five occur in the very first month of life with three-quarters of these deaths occurring during the first week of life. The promotion of delivery with a skilled birth attendant (SBA) is being promoted as a strategy to reduce neonatal mortality. This study explored whether SBAs had a protective effect against neonatal mortality in three different regions of the world. The analysis pooled data from nine diverse countries for which recent Demographic and Health Survey data were available. Multilevel logistic regression was used to understand the influence of skilled delivery on two outcomes-neonatal mortality during the first week of life and during the first day of life. Control variables included age, parity, education, wealth, residence (urban/rural), geographic region (Africa, Asia and Latin America/Caribbean), antenatal care and tetanus immunization. The direction of the effect of skilled delivery on neonatal mortality was dependent on geographic region. While having a SBA at delivery was protective against neonatal mortality in Latin America/Caribbean, in Asia there was only a protective effect for births in the first week of life. In Africa SBAs were associated with higher neonatal mortality for both outcomes, and the same was true for deaths on the first day of life in Asia. Many women in Africa and Asia deliver at home unless a complication occurs, and thus skilled birth attendants may be seeing more women with complications than their unskilled counterparts. In addition there are issues with the definition of a SBA with many attendants in both Africa and Asia not actually having the needed training and equipment to prevent neonatal mortality. Considerable investment is needed in terms of training and health infrastructure to enable these providers to save the youngest lives.

Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in child malnutrition in Vietnam: findings from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, 2000–2011

PubMed Central

Kien, Vu Duy; Lee, Hwa-Young; Nam, You-Seon; Oh, Juhwan; Giang, Kim Bao; Van Minh, Hoang

2016-01-01

Background Child malnutrition is not only a major contributor to child mortality and morbidity, but it can also determine socioeconomic status in adult life. The rate of under-five child malnutrition in Vietnam has significantly decreased, but associated inequality issues still need attention. Objective This study aims to explore trends, contributing factors, and changes in inequalities for under-five child malnutrition in Vietnam between 2000 and 2011. Design Data were drawn from the Viet Nam Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey for the years 2000 and 2011. The dependent variables used for the study were stunting, underweight, and wasting of under-five children. The concentration index was calculated to see the magnitude of child malnutrition, and the inequality was decomposed to understand the contributions of determinants to child malnutrition. The total differential decomposition was used to identify and explore factors contributing to changes in child malnutrition inequalities. Results Inequality in child malnutrition increased between 2000 and 2011, even though the overall rate declined. Most of the inequality in malnutrition was due to ethnicity and socioeconomic status. The total differential decomposition showed that the biggest and second biggest contributors to the changes in underweight inequalities were age and socioeconomic status, respectively. Socioeconomic status was the largest contributor to inequalities in stunting. Conclusions Although the overall level of child malnutrition was improved in Vietnam, there were significant differences in under-five child malnutrition that favored those who were more advantaged in socioeconomic terms. The impact of socioeconomic inequalities in child malnutrition has increased over time. Multifaceted approaches, connecting several relevant ministries and sectors, may be necessary to reduce inequalities in childhood malnutrition. PMID:26950558

Global determinants of mortality in under 5s: 10 year worldwide longitudinal study.

PubMed

Hanf, Matthieu; Nacher, Mathieu; Guihenneuc, Chantal; Tubert-Bitter, Pascale; Chavance, Michel

2013-11-08

To assess at country level the association of mortality in under 5s with a large set of determinants. Longitudinal study. 193 United Nations member countries, 2000-09. Yearly data between 2000 and 2009 based on 12 world development indicators were used in a multivariable general additive mixed model allowing for non-linear relations and lag effects. National rate of deaths in under 5s per 1000 live births The model retained the variables: gross domestic product per capita; percentage of the population having access to improved water sources, having access to improved sanitation facilities, and living in urban areas; adolescent fertility rate; public health expenditure per capita; prevalence of HIV; perceived level of corruption and of violence; and mean number of years in school for women of reproductive age. Most of these variables exhibited non-linear behaviours and lag effects. By providing a unified framework for mortality in under 5s, encompassing both high and low income countries this study showed non-linear behaviours and lag effects of known or suspected determinants of mortality in this age group. Although some of the determinants presented a linear action on log mortality indicating that whatever the context, acting on them would be a pertinent strategy to effectively reduce mortality, others had a threshold based relation potentially mediated by lag effects. These findings could help designing efficient strategies to achieve maximum progress towards millennium development goal 4, which aims to reduce mortality in under 5s by two thirds between 1990 and 2015.

Interventions to reduce neonatal mortality from neonatal tetanus in low and middle income countries--a systematic review.

PubMed

Khan, Adeel Ahmed; Zahidie, Aysha; Rabbani, Fauziah

2013-04-09

In 1988, WHO estimated around 787,000 newborns deaths due to neonatal tetanus. Despite few success stories majority of the Low and Middle Income Countries (LMICs) are still struggling to reduce neonatal mortality due to neonatal tetanus. We conducted a systematic review to understand the interventions that have had a substantial effect on reducing neonatal mortality rate due to neonatal tetanus in LMICs and come up with feasible recommendations for decreasing neonatal tetanus in the Pakistani setting. We systemically reviewed the published literature (Pubmed and Pubget databases) to identify appropriate interventions for reducing tetanus related neonatal mortality. A total of 26 out of 30 studies were shortlisted for preliminary screening after removing overlapping information. Key words used were "neonatal tetanus, neonatal mortality, tetanus toxoid women". Of these twenty-six studies, 20 were excluded. The pre-defined exclusion criteria was (i) strategies and interventions to reduce mortality among neonates not described (ii) no abstract/author (4 studies) (iii) not freely accessible online (1 study) (iv) conducted in high income countries (2 studies) and (v) not directly related to neonatal tetanus mortality and tetanus toxoid immunization (5). Finally six studies which met the eligibility criteria were entered in the pre-designed data extraction form and five were selected for commentary as they were directly linked with neonatal tetanus reduction. Interventions that were identified to reduce neonatal mortality in LMICs were: a) vaccination of women of child bearing age (married and unmarried both) with tetanus toxoid b) community based interventions i.e. tetanus toxoid immunization for all mothers; clean and skilled care at delivery; newborn resuscitation; exclusive breastfeeding; umbilical cord care and management of infections in newborns c) supplementary immunization (in addition to regular EPI program) d) safer delivery practices. The key intervention to reduce neonatal mortality from neonatal tetanus was found to be vaccination of pregnant women with tetanus toxoid. In the resource poor countries like Pakistan, this single intervention coupled with regular effective antenatal checkups, clean delivery practices and compliance with the "high- risk" approach can be effective in reducing neonatal tetanus.

Interventions to reduce neonatal mortality from neonatal tetanus in low and middle income countries - a systematic review

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background In 1988, WHO estimated around 787,000 newborns deaths due to neonatal tetanus. Despite few success stories majority of the Low and Middle Income Countries (LMICs) are still struggling to reduce neonatal mortality due to neonatal tetanus. We conducted a systematic review to understand the interventions that have had a substantial effect on reducing neonatal mortality rate due to neonatal tetanus in LMICs and come up with feasible recommendations for decreasing neonatal tetanus in the Pakistani setting. Methods We systemically reviewed the published literature (Pubmed and Pubget databases) to identify appropriate interventions for reducing tetanus related neonatal mortality. A total of 26 out of 30 studies were shortlisted for preliminary screening after removing overlapping information. Key words used were “neonatal tetanus, neonatal mortality, tetanus toxoid women”. Of these twenty-six studies, 20 were excluded. The pre-defined exclusion criteria was (i) strategies and interventions to reduce mortality among neonates not described (ii) no abstract/author (4 studies) (iii) not freely accessible online (1 study) (iv) conducted in high income countries (2 studies) and (v) not directly related to neonatal tetanus mortality and tetanus toxoid immunization (5). Finally six studies which met the eligibility criteria were entered in the pre-designed data extraction form and five were selected for commentary as they were directly linked with neonatal tetanus reduction. Results Interventions that were identified to reduce neonatal mortality in LMICs were: a) vaccination of women of child bearing age (married and unmarried both) with tetanus toxoid b) community based interventions i.e. tetanus toxoid immunization for all mothers; clean and skilled care at delivery; newborn resuscitation; exclusive breastfeeding; umbilical cord care and management of infections in newborns c) supplementary immunization (in addition to regular EPI program) d) safer delivery practices. Conclusion The key intervention to reduce neonatal mortality from neonatal tetanus was found to be vaccination of pregnant women with tetanus toxoid. In the resource poor countries like Pakistan, this single intervention coupled with regular effective antenatal checkups, clean delivery practices and compliance with the “high- risk” approach can be effective in reducing neonatal tetanus. PMID:23570611

Reduction of maternal mortality due to preeclampsia in Colombia-an interrupted time-series analysis

PubMed Central

Herrera-Medina, Rodolfo; Herrera-Escobar, Juan Pablo; Nieto-Díaz, Aníbal

2014-01-01

Introduction: Preeclampsia is the most important cause of maternal mortality in developing countries. A comprehensive prenatal care program including bio-psychosocial components was developed and introduced at a national level in Colombia. We report on the trends in maternal mortality rates and their related causes before and after implementation of this program. Methods: General and specific maternal mortality rates were monitored for nine years (1998-2006). An interrupted time-series analysis was performed with monthly data on cases of maternal mortality that compared trends and changes in national mortality rates and the impact of these changes attributable to the introduction of a bio-psychosocial model. Multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate correlations between the interventions. Results: Five years after (2002 - 2006) its introduction the general maternal mortality rate was significantly reduced to 23% (OR=0.77, CI 95% 0.71-0.82).The implementation of BPSM also reduced the incidence of preeclampsia in 22% (OR= 0.78, CI 95% 0.67-0.88), as also the labor complications by hemorrhage in 25% (OR=0.75, CI 95% 0.59-0.90) associated with the implementation of red code. The other causes of maternal mortality did not reveal significant changes. Biomedical, nutritional, psychosocial assessments, and other individual interventions in prenatal care were not correlated to maternal mortality (p= 0.112); however, together as a model we observed a significant association (p= 0.042). Conclusions: General maternal mortality was reduced after the implementation of a comprehensive national prenatal care program. Is important the evaluation of this program in others populations. PMID:24970956

Five year change in alcohol intake and risk of breast cancer and coronary heart disease among postmenopausal women: prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Dam, Marie K; Hvidtfeldt, Ulla A; Tjønneland, Anne; Overvad, Kim; Grønbæk, Morten; Tolstrup, Janne S

2016-05-11

To test the hypothesis that postmenopausal women who increase their alcohol intake over a five year period have a higher risk of breast cancer and a lower risk of coronary heart disease compared with stable alcohol intake. Prospective cohort study. Denmark, 1993-2012. 21 523 postmenopausal women who participated in the Diet, Cancer, and Health Study in two consecutive examinations in 1993-98 and 1999-2003. Information on alcohol intake was obtained from questionnaires completed by participants. Incidence of breast cancer, coronary heart disease, and all cause mortality during 11 years of follow-up. Information was obtained from the Danish Cancer Register, Danish Hospital Discharge Register, Danish Register of Causes of Death, and National Central Person Register. We estimated hazard ratios according to five year change in alcohol intake using Cox proportional hazards models. During the study, 1054, 1750, and 2080 cases of breast cancer, coronary heart disease, and mortality occurred, respectively. Analyses modelling five year change in alcohol intake with cubic splines showed that women who increased their alcohol intake over the five year period had a higher risk of breast cancer and a lower risk of coronary heart disease than women with a stable alcohol intake. For instance, women who increased their alcohol intake by seven or 14 drinks per week (corresponding to one or two drinks more per day) had hazard ratios of breast cancer of 1.13 (95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.23) and 1.29 (1.07 to 1.55), respectively, compared to women with stable intake, and adjusted for age, education, body mass index, smoking, Mediterranean diet score, parity, number of births, and hormone replacement therapy. For coronary heart disease, corresponding hazard ratios were 0.89 (0.81 to 0.97) and 0.78 (0.64 to 0.95), respectively, adjusted for age, education, body mass index, Mediterranean diet score, smoking, physical activity, hypertension, elevated cholesterol, and diabetes. Results among women who reduced their alcohol intake over the five year period were not significantly associated with risk of breast cancer or coronary heart disease. Analyses of all cause mortality showed that women who increased their alcohol intake from a high intake (≥14 drinks per week) to an even higher intake had a higher mortality risk that women with a stable high intake. In this study of postmenopausal women over a five year period, results support the hypotheses that alcohol intake is associated with increased risk of breast cancer and decreased risk of coronary heart disease. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Prolonged experimental drought reduces plant hydraulic conductance and transpiration and increases mortality in a piñon–juniper woodland

DOE PAGES

Pangle, Robert E.; Limousin, Jean -Marc; Plaut, Jennifer A.; ...

2015-03-23

Plant hydraulic conductance (k s) is a critical control on whole-plant water use and carbon uptake and, during drought, influences whether plants survive or die. To assess long-term physiological and hydraulic responses of mature trees to water availability, we manipulated ecosystem-scale water availability from 2007 to 2013 in a piñon pine ( Pinus edulis) and juniper ( Juniperus monosperma) woodland. We examined the relationship between k s and subsequent mortality using more than 5 years of physiological observations, and the subsequent impact of reduced hydraulic function and mortality on total woody canopy transpiration (E C) and conductance (G C). Formore » both species, we observed significant reductions in plant transpiration (E) and k s under experimentally imposed drought. Conversely, supplemental water additions increased E and k s in both species. Interestingly, both species exhibited similar declines in k s under the imposed drought conditions, despite their differing stomatal responses and mortality patterns during drought. Reduced whole-plant k s also reduced carbon assimilation in both species, as leaf-level stomatal conductance (g s) and net photosynthesis (A n) declined strongly with decreasing k s. Finally, we observed that chronically low whole-plant k s was associated with greater canopy dieback and mortality for both piñon and juniper and that subsequent reductions in woody canopy biomass due to mortality had a significant impact on both daily and annual canopy E C and G C. Our data indicate that significant reductions in k s precede drought-related tree mortality events in this system, and the consequence is a significant reduction in canopy gas exchange and carbon fixation. Our results suggest that reductions in productivity and woody plant cover in piñon–juniper woodlands can be expected due to reduced plant hydraulic conductance and increased mortality of both piñon pine and juniper under anticipated future conditions of more frequent and persistent regional drought in the southwestern United States.« less

Prolonged experimental drought reduces plant hydraulic conductance and transpiration and increases mortality in a piñon–juniper woodland

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pangle, Robert E.; Limousin, Jean -Marc; Plaut, Jennifer A.

Plant hydraulic conductance (k s) is a critical control on whole-plant water use and carbon uptake and, during drought, influences whether plants survive or die. To assess long-term physiological and hydraulic responses of mature trees to water availability, we manipulated ecosystem-scale water availability from 2007 to 2013 in a piñon pine ( Pinus edulis) and juniper ( Juniperus monosperma) woodland. We examined the relationship between k s and subsequent mortality using more than 5 years of physiological observations, and the subsequent impact of reduced hydraulic function and mortality on total woody canopy transpiration (E C) and conductance (G C). Formore » both species, we observed significant reductions in plant transpiration (E) and k s under experimentally imposed drought. Conversely, supplemental water additions increased E and k s in both species. Interestingly, both species exhibited similar declines in k s under the imposed drought conditions, despite their differing stomatal responses and mortality patterns during drought. Reduced whole-plant k s also reduced carbon assimilation in both species, as leaf-level stomatal conductance (g s) and net photosynthesis (A n) declined strongly with decreasing k s. Finally, we observed that chronically low whole-plant k s was associated with greater canopy dieback and mortality for both piñon and juniper and that subsequent reductions in woody canopy biomass due to mortality had a significant impact on both daily and annual canopy E C and G C. Our data indicate that significant reductions in k s precede drought-related tree mortality events in this system, and the consequence is a significant reduction in canopy gas exchange and carbon fixation. Our results suggest that reductions in productivity and woody plant cover in piñon–juniper woodlands can be expected due to reduced plant hydraulic conductance and increased mortality of both piñon pine and juniper under anticipated future conditions of more frequent and persistent regional drought in the southwestern United States.« less

Prioritizing investments in innovations to protect women from the leading causes of maternal death

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

PATH, an international nonprofit organization, assessed nearly 40 technologies for their potential to reduce maternal mortality from postpartum hemorrhage and preeclampsia and eclampsia in low-resource settings. The evaluation used a new Excel-based prioritization tool covering 22 criteria developed by PATH, the Maternal and Neonatal Directed Assessment of Technology (MANDATE) model, and consultations with experts. It identified five innovations with especially high potential: technologies to improve use of oxytocin, a uterine balloon tamponade, simplified dosing of magnesium sulfate, an improved proteinuria test, and better blood pressure measurement devices. Investments are needed to realize the potential of these technologies to reduce mortality. PMID:24405972

Prioritizing investments in innovations to protect women from the leading causes of maternal death.

PubMed

Herrick, Tara M; Harner-Jay, Claudia M; Levisay, Alice M; Coffey, Patricia S; Free, Michael J; LaBarre, Paul D

2014-01-09

PATH, an international nonprofit organization, assessed nearly 40 technologies for their potential to reduce maternal mortality from postpartum hemorrhage and preeclampsia and eclampsia in low-resource settings. The evaluation used a new Excel-based prioritization tool covering 22 criteria developed by PATH, the Maternal and Neonatal Directed Assessment of Technology (MANDATE) model, and consultations with experts. It identified five innovations with especially high potential: technologies to improve use of oxytocin, a uterine balloon tamponade, simplified dosing of magnesium sulfate, an improved proteinuria test, and better blood pressure measurement devices. Investments are needed to realize the potential of these technologies to reduce mortality.

Detroit's avoidable mortality project: breast cancer control for inner-city women.

PubMed Central

Burack, R C; Gimotty, P A; Stengle, W; Eckert, D; Warbasse, L; Moncrease, A

1989-01-01

Mammography remains substantially under-used in low-income minority populations despite its well-established efficacy as a means of breast cancer control. The Metropolitan Detroit Avoidable Mortality Project is a 2-year controlled clinical trial of coordinated interventions which seek to improve the use of early breast cancer detection services at five clinical sites providing primary health care services to inner-city women. Baseline assessment for two of the five participating clinic populations demonstrated that only one-quarter of women who visited these clinics were referred for mammography in 1988, and only half of those who were referred were able to complete the procedure. Patient characteristics including age, marital status, ethnicity, and insurance status were not associated with use of mammography during the baseline period. Each of the project's intervention components is a cue to action: a physician prompt for mammography referral within the medical record of procedure-due women, a reminder postcard for scheduled appointments, and a telephone call to encourage rescheduling of missed appointments. The interventions are initiated by a computerized information management system in the existing network of health care services. The patient's out-of-pocket mammography expense has been eliminated in three of the five sites. Although their efficacy as individual interventions has been well established, a controlled trial of computer prompts to physicians, reduced expense for patients, and patient appointment reminders as an integrated system in inner-city medical care settings has not been previously described. We have implemented the prompting, facilitated rescheduling procedures, and eliminated patient expense for mammography at three of five eventual clinical sites. This report provides an overview of the study's design, data management system, and methodology for evaluation. PMID:2511584

An exploration of China's mortality decline under Mao: A provincial analysis, 1950–80

PubMed Central

Babiarz, Kimberly Singer; Eggleston, Karen; Miller, Grant; Zhang, Qiong

2014-01-01

China's growth in life expectancy between 1950 and 1980 ranks as among the most rapid sustained increases in documented global history. However, no study of which we are aware has quantitatively assessed the relative importance of various explanations proposed for these gains. We create and analyse a new province-level panel data set spanning 1950-80 using historical information from Chinese public health archives, official provincial yearbooks, and infant and child mortality records contained in the 1988 National Survey of Fertility and Contraception. Although exploratory, our results suggest that increases in educational attainment and public health campaigns jointly explain 50-70 per cent of the dramatic reductions in infant and under-five mortality during our study period. These results are consistent with the importance of non-medical determinants of population health improvement – and under some circumstances, how general education may amplify the effectiveness of public health interventions. PMID:25495509

[Analysis of HIV/AIDS mortality in Mexico from 1990 to 2013: An assessment of the feasibility of millennium development goals by 2015].

PubMed

Bravo-García, Enrique; Ortiz-Pérez, Hilda

We aimed to assess the feasibility of achieving the goal of Mexican AIDS mortality in the Millennium Development Goals, nationally and by state. For the period 1990-2013, we estimated annual rates of decline/increase in AIDS mortality according to five-year interval, using published data from the Mexican Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía and Consejo Nacional de Población. Subsequently, we analyzed the feasibility of achieving the Millennium Development Goals target by 2015 by estimating the year in which the country and each state could achieve them. We estimated that only 13/32 states (40%) would achieve the goal established for AIDS mortality by Millennium Development Goals. Mexico, as a country, and the remaining 19 states (60%) did not will attain it. It is important to emphasize that seven states, rather than decrease, had an upward trend in mortality in the last five years analyzed. The free and universal access to antiretroviral treatment against HIV/AIDS has failed to reduce mortality as expected in Mexico. It is urgent to improve access to HIV testing by using more aggressive strategies. Also, it is necessary to apply interventions to link and retain persons in care until they are virologically suppressed.

Reducing Potentially Excess Deaths from the Five Leading Causes of Death in the Rural United States

PubMed

Garcia, Macarena C; Faul, Mark; Massetti, Greta; Thomas, Cheryll C; Hong, Yuling; Bauer, Ursula E; Iademarco, Michael F

2017-01-13

In 2014, the all-cause age-adjusted death rate in the United States reached a historic low of 724.6 per 100,000 population (1). However, mortality in rural (nonmetropolitan) areas of the United States has decreased at a much slower pace, resulting in a widening gap between rural mortality rates (830.5) and urban mortality rates (704.3) (1). During 1999–2014, annual age-adjusted death rates for the five leading causes of death in the United States (heart disease, cancer, unintentional injury, chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD), and stroke) were higher in rural areas than in urban (metropolitan) areas (Figure 1). In most public health regions (Figure 2), the proportion of deaths among persons aged <80 years (U.S. average life expectancy) (2) from the five leading causes that were potentially excess deaths was higher in rural areas compared with urban areas (Figure 3). Several factors probably influence the rural-urban gap in potentially excess deaths from the five leading causes, many of which are associated with sociodemographic differences between rural and urban areas. Residents of rural areas in the United States tend to be older, poorer, and sicker than their urban counterparts (3). A higher proportion of the rural U.S. population reports limited physical activity because of chronic conditions than urban populations (4). Moreover, social circumstances and behaviors have an impact on mortality and potentially contribute to approximately half of the determining causes of potentially excess deaths (5).

Pregnancy-related mortality in California: causes, characteristics, and improvement opportunities.

PubMed

Main, Elliott K; McCain, Christy L; Morton, Christine H; Holtby, Susan; Lawton, Elizabeth S

2015-04-01

To compare specific maternal and clinical characteristics and contributing factors among the five leading causes of pregnancy-related mortality to develop focused clinical and public health prevention programs. California pregnancy-related deaths from 2002-2005 were identified with enhanced surveillance using linked birth and death certificates. A multidisciplinary committee reviewed medical records, autopsy reports, and coroner reports to determine cause of death, clinical and demographic characteristics, chance to alter outcome, contributing factors (at health care provider, facility, and patient levels), and quality improvement opportunities. The five leading causes of death were compared with each other and with the overall California birth population. Among the 207 pregnancy-related deaths, the five leading causes were cardiovascular disease, preeclampsia or eclampsia, hemorrhage, venous thromboembolism, and amniotic fluid embolism. Among the leading causes of death, we identified differing patterns for race, maternal age, body mass index, timing of death, and method of delivery. Overall, there was a good-to-strong chance to alter the outcome in 41% of deaths, with the highest rates of preventability among hemorrhage (70%) and preeclampsia (60%) deaths. Health care provider, facility, and patient contributing factors also varied by cause of death. Pregnancy-related mortality should not be considered a single clinical entity. Reducing mortality requires in-depth examination of individual causes of death. The five leading causes exhibit different characteristics, degrees of preventability, and contributing factors, with the greatest improvement opportunities identified for hemorrhage and preeclampsia. These findings provide additional support for hospital, state, and national maternal safety programs.

[Factors associated to mortality by non-communicable diseases in Colombia, 2008-2012].

PubMed

Martínez, Julio Cesar

2016-12-01

Non-communicable diseases are the leading cause of premature mortality and disability in the world. To describe the trend pattern and to explore which risk factors were associated with mortality rates in Colombia from 2008 to 2012. A descriptive study was conducted to analyze mortality rate trends from the official vital statistics (death certificates) from 2008 to 2012. Between 2008 and 2012 there were 727,146 deaths due to non-communicable diseases, and 58.5% of them occurred among men aged less than 75 years. The mortality rate during the study period was 319.5 deaths per 100,000 people. The trend showed a statistically significant decline in mortality rates (-3%) across the country. For each woman who died due to external causes (i.e., not related to illness or old age), five men died under the same circumstances (OR=5,295; IC 95%: 5,143-5,454). The five most important causes of mortality were heart diseases, injuries due to aggressions, malignant tumors, chronic lower respiratory diseases and road traffic accidents. The cause of death differed significantly by sex and age. The main causes of death in Colombia were heart diseases and injuries (homicide). Mortality was higher among men of all ages than among women, but 15 to 45 year-old males were more likely to die due to external causes.

Heat-Related Mortality Projections for Cardiovascular and Respiratory Disease Under the Changing Climate in Beijing, China

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Tiantian; Ban, Jie; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Huang, Ganlin; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

2015-01-01

Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4 percent, 47.8 percent, and 69.0 percent in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6 percent, 73.8 percent and 134 percent in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP 8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21st century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

Exploring geological and socio-demographic factors associated with under-five mortality in the Wenchuan earthquake using neural network model.

PubMed

Hu, Yi; Wang, Jinfeng; Li, Xiaohong; Ren, Dan; Driskell, Luke; Zhu, Jun

2012-01-01

On 12 May 2008, a devastating earthquake occurred in Sichuan Province, China, taking tens of thousands of lives and destroying the homes of millions of people. Among the large number of dead or missing were children, particularly children aged less than five years old, a fact which drew significant media attention. To obtain relevant information specifically to aid further studies and future preventative measures, a neural network model was proposed to explore some geological and socio-demographic factors associated with earthquake-related child mortality. Sensitivity analysis showed that topographic slope (mean 35.76%), geomorphology (mean 24.18%), earthquake intensity (mean 13.68%), and average income (mean 11%) had great contributions to child mortality. These findings could provide some clues to researchers for further studies and to policy makers in deciding how and where preventive measures and corresponding policies should be implemented in the reconstruction of communities.

Preterm birth and neurodevelopment: a review of outcomes and recommendations for early identification and cost-effective interventions.

PubMed

Sutton, Perri S; Darmstadt, Gary L

2013-08-01

This review summarizes research findings to date on neurological and health outcomes following preterm birth, tools to identify children at risk for neurodevelopmental impairment and interventions to prevent preterm birth and improve outcomes. We bring together findings from research in high- and low-income countries, with an aim to provide a global perspective on the issues. Around the world, preterm birth is rising in importance as a cause of under-five morbidity and mortality, and we project that this trend will continue over time, particularly given the lack of interventions to prevent the condition. With the development of improved screening instruments, further identification and scale up of cost-effective interventions to optimize early childhood development and accelerated research on the underlying biological mechanisms, we have an opportunity to reduce rates of neurodevelopmental impairment, particularly in countries with the highest burden.

Mortality from violent causes in the Americas.

PubMed

Yunes, J

1993-01-01

This article provides an assessment of 1986 mortality from violent causes in the Americas. Directed at assisting with development of preventive public health measures, it employs data available in the PAHO data base to focus on the under-25 year age group, compare mortality from violent causes with mortality from infectious and parasitic diseases, and evaluate the relative role of motor vehicle traffic accidents, other accidents, suicide, homicide, and deaths from unknown causes in mortality from violent causes. The study uses the classification of causes presented in the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision. The results show that 517,465 deaths from violent causes were registered in 28 countries and political units of the Americas in 1986, mortality from these causes ranging from 19.3 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants in Jamaica to 125 in El Salvador. Examination of available 1980-1986 data from five countries points to steady increases in mortality from violent causes in Brazil and Cuba that began respectively in 1983 and 1984. Assessment of male and female 1986 mortality from these causes in nine countries showed male mortality to be substantially higher, the lowest male:female ratio (in Cuba) being 1.9:1. Among infants, infectious and parasitic disease mortality was greater than mortality from violent causes in most countries. However, from age 1 to the study's 25-year cutoff, mortality from violent causes was found to exceed infectious and parasitic disease mortality in most countries and to play an especially large role in deaths among those 19-24 years old. Data from eight countries suggested that accidents other than motor vehicle traffic accidents were accounting for much of the mortality from violent causes among infants and the 1-4 year age group in 1986, while motor vehicle traffic accidents rivaled other accidents in importance among the older (5-9, 10-14, 15-19, and 19-24) age groups. It appears that the information presented could prove of considerable use in developing policies designed to reduce morbidity and mortality from violent causes (1).

Assessing the causes of under-five mortality in the Albert Schweitzer Hospital service area of rural Haiti.

PubMed

Perry, Henry B; Ross, Allen G; Fernand, Facile

2005-09-01

Limited information is available regarding the causes of under-five mortality in nearly all of the countries in which mortality is the highest. The purpose of this study was to use a standard computerized protocol for defining the leading causes of death among children in a high-mortality rural population of Haiti and to highlight the need for similar studies else-where in Haiti and throughout the high-mortality areas of Latin America and the Caribbean. In 2001 a standardized, closed-ended verbal autopsy questionnaire endorsed by the World Health Organization was administered to a representative, population-based sample of the mothers or other caregivers of 97 children who had died before reaching 5 years of age between 1995 and 1999 in the service area of the Albert Schweitzer Hospital, which is located in the rural Artibonite Valley of Haiti. With the data from the questionnaires we used a computerized algorithm to generate diagnoses of the cause of death; the algorithm made it possible to have more than one cause of death. Acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) was the leading diagnosis, present in 45% of all under-five deaths, followed by enteric diseases, present in 21% of deaths. Neonatal tetanus, preterm birth, and other early neonatal causes unassociated with ALRI or diarrhea were present in 41% of the neonatal deaths. Among children 1-59 months of age, ALRI was present in 51% of the deaths, and enteric diseases in 30%. Deaths were concentrated during the first few months of life, with 35% occurring during the first month. Among the neonatal deaths, 27% occurred on the first day of life, and 80% occurred during the first 10 days of life. In the Albert Schweitzer Hospital program area--and presumably in other areas of Haiti as well--priority needs to be given to the prevention of and the early, effective treatment of ALRI, diarrhea, and early neonatal conditions. This study points to the need for more, similar standardized assessments to guide local, regional, and national programs.

Socioeconomic inequalities in child mortality: comparisons across nine developing countries.

PubMed Central

Wagstaff, A.

2000-01-01

This paper generates and analyses survey data on inequalities in mortality among infants and children aged under five years by consumption in Brazil, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nepal, Nicaragua, Pakistan, the Philippines, South Africa, and Viet Nam. The data were obtained from the Living Standards Measurement Study and the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey. Mortality rates were estimated directly where complete fertility histories were available and indirectly otherwise. Mortality distributions were compared between countries by means of concentration curves and concentration indices: dominance checks were carried out for all pairwise intercountry comparisons; standard errors were calculated for the concentration indices; and tests of intercountry differences in inequality were performed. PMID:10686730

[Death rate by malnutrition in children under the age of five, Colombia].

PubMed

Quiroga, Edwin Fernando

2012-01-01

Much higher mortalities occur in children under five in developing countries with high poverty rates compared with developed countries. Causes of death are related to perinatal conditions, measles, HIV/AIDS, diarrhea, respiratory diseases and others. Throughout the world, malnutrition has been identified as the underlying cause of approximately half of these deaths. Death rate due to malnutrition was described using an adjusted method that takes into account the difficulties of identifying malnutrition as a direct cause of death. A descriptive study included analysis of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) vital statistics from 2003-2007. Death rates were estimated, a method of analysis of multiple causes was applied for infectious diseases, along with calculations of death probabilities. Malnutrition was associated with infectious diseases. The frequency of infectious disease as a direct cause of death was almost seven times higher in cases with the antecedent of malnutrition. When adjusted death rate values were used, the initial value increased nearly five times. The probability of death after the adjustment for inadequate classification increased approximately four times. The Analysis of Multiple Causes Method was established as an effective method in analyzing malnutrition and infectious diesease mortality in Colombia. Malnutrition may be a direct underlying cause of death in one of eight deaths in children <1 year old and one of three deaths in 1-4-year-olds.

Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 1976-2014

PubMed Central

Rosello, Alicia; Mossoko, Mathias; Flasche, Stefan; Van Hoek, Albert Jan; Mbala, Placide; Camacho, Anton; Funk, Sebastian; Kucharski, Adam; Ilunga, Benoit Kebela; Edmunds, W John; Piot, Peter; Baguelin, Marc; Muyembe Tamfum, Jean-Jacques

2015-01-01

The Democratic Republic of the Congo has experienced the most outbreaks of Ebola virus disease since the virus' discovery in 1976. This article provides for the first time a description and a line list for all outbreaks in this country, comprising 996 cases. Compared to patients over 15 years old, the odds of dying were significantly lower in patients aged 5 to 15 and higher in children under five (with 100% mortality in those under 2 years old). The odds of dying increased by 11% per day that a patient was not hospitalised. Outbreaks with an initially high reproduction number, R (>3), were rapidly brought under control, whilst outbreaks with a lower initial R caused longer and generally larger outbreaks. These findings can inform the choice of target age groups for interventions and highlight the importance of both reducing the delay between symptom onset and hospitalisation and rapid national and international response. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.09015.001 PMID:26525597

Network advocacy and the emergence of global attention to newborn survival

PubMed Central

Shiffman, Jeremy

2016-01-01

Globally 2.9 million babies die each year before reaching 28 days of life. Over the past quarter century, neonatal mortality has declined at a slower pace than post-neonatal under-five mortality: in consequence newborns now comprise 44% of all deaths to children under five years. Despite high numbers of newborn deaths, global organizations and national governments paid little attention to the issue until 2000, and resources, while growing since then, remain inadequate. This study examines the factors behind these patterns of policy attention: the delayed emergence of attention, its sudden appearance in 2000, its growth thereafter, but the dearth of resources to date. Drawing on a framework on global health networks grounded in collective action theory, the study finds that a newborn survival network helped to shift perceptions about the problem’s severity and tractability, contributing to the rise of global attention. Its efforts were facilitated by pressure on governments to achieve the child survival Millennium Development Goal and by growing awareness that the neonatal period constituted a growing percentage of under-five mortality, a fact the network publicized. The network’s relatively recent emergence, its predominantly technical rather than political composition and strategies, and its inability to date to find a framing of the issue that has convinced national political leaders of the issue’s urgency, in part explain the insufficiency of resources. However, since 2010 a number of non-health oriented inter-governmental organizations have begun to pay attention to the issue, and several countries with high neonatal mortality have created national plans, developments which augur well for the future. The study points to two broader implications concerning how neglected global health issues come to attract attention: priority emerges from a confluence of factors, rather than any single cause; and growth in priority may depend on the creation of a broader political coalition that extends beyond the largely technically oriented actors who may first press for attention to a problem. PMID:26405157

Determinants of efficiency in reducing child mortality in developing countries. The role of inequality and government effectiveness.

PubMed

Ortega, Bienvenido; Sanjuán, Jesús; Casquero, Antonio

2017-12-01

The main aim of this article was to analyze the relationship of income inequality and government effectiveness with differences in efficiency in the use of health inputs to improve the under-five survival rate (U5SR) in developing countries. Robust Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and regression analysis were conducted using data for 47 developing countries for the periods 2000-2004, 2005-2009, and 2010-2012. The estimations show that countries with a more equal income distribution and better government effectiveness (i.e. a more competent bureaucracy and good quality public service delivery) may need fewer health inputs to achieve a specific level of the U5SR than other countries with higher inequality and worse government effectiveness.

Aptamer Technology: Adjunct Therapy for Malaria

PubMed Central

Nik Kamarudin, Nik Abdul Aziz; Mohammed, Nurul Adila; Mustaffa, Khairul Mohd Fadzli

2017-01-01

Malaria is a life-threatening parasitic infection occurring in the endemic areas, primarily in children under the age of five, pregnant women, and patients with human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV)/(AIDS) as well as non-immune individuals. The cytoadherence of infected erythrocytes (IEs) to the host endothelial surface receptor is a known factor that contributes to the increased prevalence of severe malaria cases due to the accumulation of IEs, mainly in the brain and other vital organs. Therefore, further study is needed to discover a new potential anti-adhesive drug to treat severe malaria thus reducing its mortality rate. In this review, we discuss how the aptamer technology could be applied in the development of a new adjunct therapy for current malaria treatment. PMID:28536344

Caregivers' perception of malaria and treatment-seeking behaviour for under five children in Mandura District, West Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Mitiku, Israel; Assefa, Adane

2017-04-08

Early diagnosis and prompt malaria treatment is essential to reduce progression of the illness to severe disease and, therefore, decrease mortality particularly among children under 5 years of age. This study assessed perception of malaria and treatment-seeking behaviour for children under five with fever in the last 2 weeks in Mandura District, West Ethiopia. A community based cross-sectional study was conducted among 491 caregivers of children under five in Mandura District, West Ethiopia in December 2014. Data were collected using interviewer-administered questionnaires. Data were entered into Epi Info version 7 and analysed using SPSS version 20. Multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify the determinants of caregivers' treatment-seeking behaviour. Overall, 94.1% of the respondents perceived that fever is the most common symptom and 70% associated mosquito bite with the occurrence of malaria. Of 197 caregivers with under five children with fever in the last 2 weeks preceding the study 87.8% sought treatment. However, only 38.7% received treatment within 24 h of onset of fever. Determinants of treatment-seeking include place of residence (rural/urban) (AOR 2.80, 95% CI 1.01-7.70), caregivers age (AOR 3.40, 95% CI 1.27-9.10), knowledge of malaria (AOR 4.65, 95% CI 1.38-15.64), perceived susceptibility to malaria (AOR 3.63, 95% CI 1.21-10.88), and perceived barrier to seek treatment (AOR 0.18, 95% CI 0.06-0.52). Majority of the respondents of this study sought treatment for their under five children. However, a considerable number of caregivers first consulted traditional healers and tried home treatment, thus, sought treatment late. Living in rural village, caregivers' age, malaria knowledge, perceived susceptibility to malaria and perceived barrier to seek treatment were important factors in seeking health care. There is a need to focus on targeted interventions, promote awareness and prevention, and address misconceptions about childhood febrile illness.

The Pennsylvania Trauma Outcomes Study Risk-Adjusted Mortality Model: Results of a Statewide Benchmarking Program

PubMed Central

WIEBE, DOUGLAS J.; HOLENA, DANIEL N.; DELGADO, M. KIT; McWILLIAMS, NATHAN; ALTENBURG, JULIET; CARR, BRENDAN G.

2018-01-01

Trauma centers need objective feedback on performance to inform quality improvement efforts. The Trauma Quality Improvement Program recently published recommended methodology for case mix adjustment and benchmarking performance. We tested the feasibility of applying this methodology to develop risk-adjusted mortality models for a statewide trauma system. We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients ≥16 years old at Pennsylvania trauma centers from 2011 to 2013 (n = 100,278). Our main outcome measure was observed-to-expected mortality ratios (overall and within blunt, penetrating, multisystem, isolated head, and geriatric subgroups). Patient demographic variables, physiology, mechanism of injury, transfer status, injury severity, and pre-existing conditions were included as predictor variables. The statistical model had excellent discrimination (area under the curve = 0.94). Funnel plots of observed-to-expected identified five centers with lower than expected mortality and two centers with higher than expected mortality. No centers were outliers for management of penetrating trauma, but five centers had lower and three had higher than expected mortality for blunt trauma. It is feasible to use Trauma Quality Improvement Program methodology to develop risk-adjusted models for statewide trauma systems. Even with smaller numbers of trauma centers that are available in national datasets, it is possible to identify high and low outliers in performance. PMID:28541852

The Pennsylvania Trauma Outcomes Study Risk-Adjusted Mortality Model: Results of a Statewide Benchmarking Program.

PubMed

Wiebe, Douglas J; Holena, Daniel N; Delgado, M Kit; McWilliams, Nathan; Altenburg, Juliet; Carr, Brendan G

2017-05-01

Trauma centers need objective feedback on performance to inform quality improvement efforts. The Trauma Quality Improvement Program recently published recommended methodology for case mix adjustment and benchmarking performance. We tested the feasibility of applying this methodology to develop risk-adjusted mortality models for a statewide trauma system. We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients ≥16 years old at Pennsylvania trauma centers from 2011 to 2013 (n = 100,278). Our main outcome measure was observed-to-expected mortality ratios (overall and within blunt, penetrating, multisystem, isolated head, and geriatric subgroups). Patient demographic variables, physiology, mechanism of injury, transfer status, injury severity, and pre-existing conditions were included as predictor variables. The statistical model had excellent discrimination (area under the curve = 0.94). Funnel plots of observed-to-expected identified five centers with lower than expected mortality and two centers with higher than expected mortality. No centers were outliers for management of penetrating trauma, but five centers had lower and three had higher than expected mortality for blunt trauma. It is feasible to use Trauma Quality Improvement Program methodology to develop risk-adjusted models for statewide trauma systems. Even with smaller numbers of trauma centers that are available in national datasets, it is possible to identify high and low outliers in performance.

Projected impacts of federal tax policy proposals on mortality burden in the United States: A microsimulation analysis.

PubMed

Kim, Daniel

2018-06-01

The public health consequences of federal income tax policies that influence income inequality are not well understood. I aimed to project the impacts on mortality of modifying federal income tax structures based on proposals by two recent United States (U.S.) Presidential candidates: Donald Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders. I performed a microsimulation analysis using the latest U.S. Internal Revenue Service public-use tax file with state identifiers (2008 tax year), containing nationally-representative data from 139,651 tax returns. I considered five tax plan scenarios: 1) actual 2008 tax structures; proposals in 2016 by then-candidates 2) Trump and 3) Sanders; 4) a modified Sanders plan with higher top tax rates (75%); and 5) a modified Sanders plan with higher top rates plus revenue redistribution to lower-income households (<$40,000/year). I combined projected changes in income inequality with vital statistics data and past estimates of linkages between income inequality, income, and mortality. 29,689 (95% CI: 10,865-48,920) more deaths/year and 31,302 (95% CI: 11,455-51,577) fewer deaths/year from all causes are anticipated under the Trump and Sanders plans, respectively. Under the modified Sanders plan including higher top rates, 68,919 (95% CI: 25,221-113,561) fewer deaths/year are projected. Under the modified Sanders plan with redistribution, 333,504 (95% CI: 192,897-473,787) fewer deaths/year are expected. Policies that both raise federal income tax rates and redistribute tax revenue could confer large reductions in the total number of annual deaths among Americans. In this era of high income inequality and growing public support to address the rich-poor gap, policymakers should consider joint federal tax and redistributive policies as levers to reduce the burden of mortality in the United States. Copyright © 2017 The Author. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Family Planning and Child Survival: The Role of Reproductive Factors in Infant and Child Mortality.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conly, Shanti R.

This report summarizes the evidence that family planning can reduce deaths of children under 5 years of age at a reasonable cost. The report also: (1) identifies the major reproductive factors associated with child mortality; (2) estimates the approximate reduction in child mortality that could be achieved through improved childbearing patterns;…

Behavioral economics: the key to closing the gap on maternal, newborn and child survival for Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5?

PubMed

Buttenheim, Alison M; Asch, David A

2013-05-01

Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 4 and 5 set ambitious targets to reduce maternal, newborn and child mortality by 2015. With 2015 fast approaching, there has been a concerted effort in the global health community to "close the gap" on the MDG targets. Recent consensus initiatives and frameworks have refocused attention on evidence-based, low-cost interventions that can reduce mortality and morbidity, and have argued for additional funding to increase access to and coverage of these life-saving interventions. However, funding alone will not close the gap on MDGs 4 and 5. Even when high-quality, affordable products and services are readily available, uptake is often low. Progress will therefore require not just money, but also advances in health-related behavior change and decision-making. Behavioral economics offers one way to achieve real progress by improving our understanding of how individuals make choices under information and time constraints, and by offering new approaches to make it easier for individuals to do what is in their best interest and harder to do what is not. We introduce five behavioral economic principles and demonstrate how they could boost efforts to improve maternal, newborn, and child health in pursuit of MDGs 4 and 5.

Child Mortality Estimation: A Global Overview of Infant and Child Mortality Age Patterns in Light of New Empirical Data

PubMed Central

Guillot, Michel; Gerland, Patrick; Pelletier, François; Saabneh, Ameed

2012-01-01

Background The under-five mortality rate (the probability of dying between birth and age 5 y, also denoted in the literature as U5MR and 5 q 0) is a key indicator of child health, but it conceals important information about how this mortality is distributed by age. One important distinction is what amount of the under-five mortality occurs below age 1 y (1 q 0) versus at age 1 y and above (4 q 1). However, in many country settings, this distinction is often difficult to establish because of various types of data errors. As a result, it is common practice to resort to model age patterns to estimate 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 on the basis of an observed value of 5 q 0. The most commonly used model age patterns for this purpose are the Coale and Demeny and the United Nations systems. Since the development of these models, many additional sources of data for under-five mortality have become available, making possible a general evaluation of age patterns of infant and child mortality. In this paper, we do a systematic comparison of empirical values of 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 against model age patterns, and discuss whether observed deviations are due to data errors, or whether they reflect true epidemiological patterns not addressed in existing model life tables. Methods and Findings We used vital registration data from the Human Mortality Database, sample survey data from the World Fertility Survey and Demographic and Health Surveys programs, and data from Demographic Surveillance Systems. For each of these data sources, we compared empirical combinations of 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 against combinations provided by Coale and Demeny and United Nations model age patterns. We found that, on the whole, empirical values fall relatively well within the range provided by these models, but we also found important exceptions. Sub-Saharan African countries have a tendency to exhibit high values of 4 q 1 relative to 1 q 0, a pattern that appears to arise for the most part from true epidemiological causes. While this pattern is well known in the case of western Africa, we observed that it is more widespread than commonly thought. We also found that the emergence of HIV/AIDS, while perhaps contributing to high relative values of 4 q 1, does not appear to have substantially modified preexisting patterns. We also identified a small number of countries scattered in different parts of the world that exhibit unusually low values of 4 q 1 relative to 1 q 0, a pattern that is not likely to arise merely from data errors. Finally, we illustrate that it is relatively common for populations to experience changes in age patterns of infant and child mortality as they experience a decline in mortality. Conclusions Existing models do not appear to cover the entire range of epidemiological situations and trajectories. Therefore, model life tables should be used with caution for estimating 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 on the basis of 5 q 0. Moreover, this model-based estimation procedure assumes that the input value of 5 q 0 is correct, which may not always be warranted, especially in the case of survey data. A systematic evaluation of data errors in sample surveys and their impact on age patterns of 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 is urgently needed, along with the development of model age patterns of under-five mortality that would cover a wider range of epidemiological situations and trajectories. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary. PMID:22952438

Testing survey-based methods for rapid monitoring of child mortality, with implications for summary birth history data.

PubMed

Brady, Eoghan; Hill, Kenneth

2017-01-01

Under-five mortality estimates are increasingly used in low and middle income countries to target interventions and measure performance against global development goals. Two new methods to rapidly estimate under-5 mortality based on Summary Birth Histories (SBH) were described in a previous paper and tested with data available. This analysis tests the methods using data appropriate to each method from 5 countries that lack vital registration systems. SBH data are collected across many countries through censuses and surveys, and indirect methods often rely upon their quality to estimate mortality rates. The Birth History Imputation method imputes data from a recent Full Birth History (FBH) onto the birth, death and age distribution of the SBH to produce estimates based on the resulting distribution of child mortality. DHS FBHs and MICS SBHs are used for all five countries. In the implementation, 43 of 70 estimates are within 20% of validation estimates (61%). Mean Absolute Relative Error is 17.7.%. 1 of 7 countries produces acceptable estimates. The Cohort Change method considers the differences in births and deaths between repeated Summary Birth Histories at 1 or 2-year intervals to estimate the mortality rate in that period. SBHs are taken from Brazil's PNAD Surveys 2004-2011 and validated against IGME estimates. 2 of 10 estimates are within 10% of validation estimates. Mean absolute relative error is greater than 100%. Appropriate testing of these new methods demonstrates that they do not produce sufficiently good estimates based on the data available. We conclude this is due to the poor quality of most SBH data included in the study. This has wider implications for the next round of censuses and future household surveys across many low- and middle- income countries.

Global Burden of Sickle Cell Anaemia in Children under Five, 2010–2050: Modelling Based on Demographics, Excess Mortality, and Interventions

PubMed Central

Piel, Frédéric B.; Hay, Simon I.; Gupta, Sunetra; Weatherall, David J.; Williams, Thomas N.

2013-01-01

Background The global burden of sickle cell anaemia (SCA) is set to rise as a consequence of improved survival in high-prevalence low- and middle-income countries and population migration to higher-income countries. The host of quantitative evidence documenting these changes has not been assembled at the global level. The purpose of this study is to estimate trends in the future number of newborns with SCA and the number of lives that could be saved in under-five children with SCA by the implementation of different levels of health interventions. Methods and Findings First, we calculated projected numbers of newborns with SCA for each 5-y interval between 2010 and 2050 by combining estimates of national SCA frequencies with projected demographic data. We then accounted for under-five mortality (U5m) projections and tested different levels of excess mortality for children with SCA, reflecting the benefits of implementing specific health interventions for under-five patients in 2015, to assess the number of lives that could be saved with appropriate health care services. The estimated number of newborns with SCA globally will increase from 305,800 (confidence interval [CI]: 238,400–398,800) in 2010 to 404,200 (CI: 242,500–657,600) in 2050. It is likely that Nigeria (2010: 91,000 newborns with SCA [CI: 77,900–106,100]; 2050: 140,800 [CI: 95,500–200,600]) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (2010: 39,700 [CI: 32,600–48,800]; 2050: 44,700 [CI: 27,100–70,500]) will remain the countries most in need of policies for the prevention and management of SCA. We predict a decrease in the annual number of newborns with SCA in India (2010: 44,400 [CI: 33,700–59,100]; 2050: 33,900 [CI: 15,900–64,700]). The implementation of basic health interventions (e.g., prenatal diagnosis, penicillin prophylaxis, and vaccination) for SCA in 2015, leading to significant reductions in excess mortality among under-five children with SCA, could, by 2050, prolong the lives of 5,302,900 [CI: 3,174,800–6,699,100] newborns with SCA. Similarly, large-scale universal screening could save the lives of up to 9,806,000 (CI: 6,745,800–14,232,700) newborns with SCA globally, 85% (CI: 81%–88%) of whom will be born in sub-Saharan Africa. The study findings are limited by the uncertainty in the estimates and the assumptions around mortality reductions associated with interventions. Conclusions Our quantitative approach confirms that the global burden of SCA is increasing, and highlights the need to develop specific national policies for appropriate public health planning, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Further empirical collaborative epidemiological studies are vital to assess current and future health care needs, especially in Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and India. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:23874164

The US President's Malaria Initiative and under-5 child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: A difference-in-differences analysis.

PubMed

Jakubowski, Aleksandra; Stearns, Sally C; Kruk, Margaret E; Angeles, Gustavo; Thirumurthy, Harsha

2017-06-01

Despite substantial financial contributions by the United States President's Malaria Initiative (PMI) since 2006, no studies have carefully assessed how this program may have affected important population-level health outcomes. We utilized multiple publicly available data sources to evaluate the association between introduction of PMI and child mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We used difference-in-differences analyses to compare trends in the primary outcome of under-5 mortality rates and secondary outcomes reflecting population coverage of malaria interventions in 19 PMI-recipient and 13 non-recipient countries between 1995 and 2014. The analyses controlled for presence and intensity of other large funding sources, individual and household characteristics, and country and year fixed effects. PMI program implementation was associated with a significant reduction in the annual risk of under-5 child mortality (adjusted risk ratio [RR] 0.84, 95% CI 0.74-0.96). Each dollar of per-capita PMI expenditures in a country, a measure of PMI intensity, was also associated with a reduction in child mortality (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.78-0.93). We estimated that the under-5 mortality rate in PMI countries was reduced from 28.9 to 24.3 per 1,000 person-years. Population coverage of insecticide-treated nets increased by 8.34 percentage points (95% CI 0.86-15.83) and coverage of indoor residual spraying increased by 6.63 percentage points (95% CI 0.79-12.47) after PMI implementation. Per-capita PMI spending was also associated with a modest increase in artemisinin-based combination therapy coverage (3.56 percentage point increase, 95% CI -0.07-7.19), though this association was only marginally significant (p = 0.054). Our results were robust to several sensitivity analyses. Because our study design leaves open the possibility of unmeasured confounding, we cannot definitively interpret these results as causal. PMI may have significantly contributed to reducing the burden of malaria in SSA and reducing the number of child deaths in the region. Introduction of PMI was associated with increased coverage of malaria prevention technologies, which are important mechanisms through which child mortality can be reduced. To our knowledge, this study is the first to assess the association between PMI and all-cause child mortality in SSA with the use of appropriate comparison groups and adjustments for regional trends in child mortality.

The US President’s Malaria Initiative and under-5 child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: A difference-in-differences analysis

PubMed Central

Angeles, Gustavo; Thirumurthy, Harsha

2017-01-01

Background Despite substantial financial contributions by the United States President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI) since 2006, no studies have carefully assessed how this program may have affected important population-level health outcomes. We utilized multiple publicly available data sources to evaluate the association between introduction of PMI and child mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Methods and findings We used difference-in-differences analyses to compare trends in the primary outcome of under-5 mortality rates and secondary outcomes reflecting population coverage of malaria interventions in 19 PMI-recipient and 13 non-recipient countries between 1995 and 2014. The analyses controlled for presence and intensity of other large funding sources, individual and household characteristics, and country and year fixed effects. PMI program implementation was associated with a significant reduction in the annual risk of under-5 child mortality (adjusted risk ratio [RR] 0.84, 95% CI 0.74–0.96). Each dollar of per-capita PMI expenditures in a country, a measure of PMI intensity, was also associated with a reduction in child mortality (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.78–0.93). We estimated that the under-5 mortality rate in PMI countries was reduced from 28.9 to 24.3 per 1,000 person-years. Population coverage of insecticide-treated nets increased by 8.34 percentage points (95% CI 0.86–15.83) and coverage of indoor residual spraying increased by 6.63 percentage points (95% CI 0.79–12.47) after PMI implementation. Per-capita PMI spending was also associated with a modest increase in artemisinin-based combination therapy coverage (3.56 percentage point increase, 95% CI −0.07–7.19), though this association was only marginally significant (p = 0.054). Our results were robust to several sensitivity analyses. Because our study design leaves open the possibility of unmeasured confounding, we cannot definitively interpret these results as causal. Conclusions PMI may have significantly contributed to reducing the burden of malaria in SSA and reducing the number of child deaths in the region. Introduction of PMI was associated with increased coverage of malaria prevention technologies, which are important mechanisms through which child mortality can be reduced. To our knowledge, this study is the first to assess the association between PMI and all-cause child mortality in SSA with the use of appropriate comparison groups and adjustments for regional trends in child mortality. PMID:28609442

Rural-urban migration and child survival in urban Bangladesh: are the urban migrants and poor disadvantaged?

PubMed

Islam, M Mazharul; Azad, Kazi Md Abul Kalam

2008-01-01

This paper analyses the levels and trends of childhood mortality in urban Bangladesh, and examines whether children's survival chances are poorer among the urban migrants and urban poor. It also examines the determinants of child survival in urban Bangladesh. Data come from the 1999-2000 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey. The results indicate that, although the indices of infant and child mortality are consistently better in urban areas, the urban-rural differentials in childhood mortality have diminished in recent years. The study identifies two distinct child morality regimes in urban Bangladesh: one for urban natives and one for rural-urban migrants. Under-five mortality is higher among children born to urban migrants compared with children born to life-long urban natives (102 and 62 per 1000 live births, respectively). The migrant-native mortality differentials more-or-less correspond with the differences in socioeconomic status. Like childhood mortality rates, rural-urban migrants seem to be moderately disadvantaged by economic status compared with their urban native counterparts. Within the urban areas, the child survival status is even worse among the migrant poor than among the average urban poor, especially recent migrants. This poor-non-poor differential in childhood mortality is higher in urban areas than in rural areas. The study findings indicate that rapid growth of the urban population in recent years due to rural-to-urban migration, coupled with higher risk of mortality among migrant's children, may be considered as one of the major explanations for slower decline in under-five mortality in urban Bangladesh, thus diminishing urban-rural differentials in childhood mortality in Bangladesh. The study demonstrates that housing conditions and access to safe drinking water and hygienic toilet facilities are the most critical determinants of child survival in urban areas, even after controlling for migration status. The findings of the study may have important policy implications for urban planning, highlighting the need to target migrant groups and the urban poor within urban areas in the provision of health care services.

Long-term reductions in mortality among children under age 5 in rural Haiti: effects of a comprehensive health system in an impoverished setting.

PubMed

Perry, Henry; Berggren, Warren; Berggren, Gretchen; Dowell, Duane; Menager, Henri; Bottex, Erve; Dortonne, Jean Richard; Philippe, Francois; Cayemittes, Michel

2007-02-01

Evidence regarding the long-term impact of health and other community development programs on under-5 mortality (the risk of death from birth until the fifth birthday) is limited. We compared mortality in a population served by health and other community development programs at the Hôpital Albert Schweitzer (HAS) with national mortality rates among children younger than 5 years for Haiti between 1958 and 1999. We collected information on births and deaths in the HAS service area between 1995 and 1999 and assembled previously published under-5 mortality rates at HAS. Published national rates for Haiti served as a comparison. In the early 1970s, the under-5 mortality rate at HAS declined to a level three fourths lower than that in Haiti nationwide. More recently, HAS rates have remained at one half those for Haiti nationwide. Child survival interventions in the HAS service area were substantially higher than in Haiti nationwide although socioeconomic characteristics and levels of childhood malnutrition were similar in both areas. HAS's programs have been responsible for long-term sustained reduction in mortality among children aged less than 5 years. Integrated systems for health and other community development programs could be an effective strategy for achieving the United Nations Millennium Goal to reduce under-5 mortality two thirds by 2015.

Quantitative versus qualitative cultures of respiratory secretions for clinical outcomes in patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia.

PubMed

Berton, Danilo Cortozi; Kalil, Andre C; Cavalcanti, Manuela; Teixeira, Paulo José Zimermann

2008-10-08

Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is a common infectious disease in intensive care units (ICUs). The best diagnostic approach to resolve this condition remains uncertain. To evaluate whether quantitative cultures of respiratory secretions are effective in reducing mortality in immunocompetent patients with VAP, compared with qualitative cultures. We also considered changes in antibiotic use, length of ICU stay and mechanical ventilation. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library 2007, issue 4), which contains the Acute Respiratory Infections Group's Specialized Register; MEDLINE (1966 to December 2007); EMBASE (1974 to December 2007); and LILACS (1982 to December 2007). Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing respiratory samples processed quantitatively or qualitatively, obtained by invasive or non-invasive methods from immunocompetent patients with VAP, and which analyzed the impact of these methods on antibiotic use and mortality rates. Two review authors independently reviewed and selected trials from the search results, and assessed studies for suitability, methodology and quality. We analyzed data using Review Manager software. We pooled the included studies to yield the risk ratio (RR) for mortality and antibiotic change with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Of the 3931 references identified from the electronic databases, five RCTs (1367 patients) met the inclusion criteria. Three studies compared invasive methods using quantitative cultures versus non-invasive methods using qualitative cultures, and were used to answer the main objective of this review. The other two studies compared invasive versus non-invasive methods, both using quantitative cultures. All five studies were combined to compare invasive versus non-invasive interventions for diagnosing VAP. The studies that compared quantitative and qualitative cultures (1240 patients) showed no statistically significant differences in mortality rates (RR = 0.91, 95% CI 0.75 to 1.11). The analysis of all five RCTs showed there was no evidence of mortality reduction in the invasive group versus the non-invasive group (RR = 0.93, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.11). There were no significant differences between the interventions with respect to the number of days on mechanical ventilation, length of ICU stay or antibiotic change. There is no evidence that the use of quantitative cultures of respiratory secretions results in reduced mortality, reduced time in ICU and on mechanical ventilation, or higher rates of antibiotic change when compared to qualitative cultures in patients with VAP. Similar results were observed when invasive strategies were compared with non-invasive strategies.

Early kit mortality and growth in farmed mink are affected by litter size rather than nest climate.

PubMed

Schou, T M; Malmkvist, J

2017-09-01

We investigated the effects of nest box climate on early mink kit mortality and growth. We hypothesised that litters in warm nest boxes experience less hypothermia-induced mortality and higher growth rates during the 1st week of life. This study included data from 749, 1-year-old breeding dams with access to nesting materials. Kits were weighed on days 1 and 7, dead kits were collected daily from birth until day 7 after birth, and nest climate was measured continuously from days 1 to 6. We tested the influences of the following daily temperature (T) and humidity (H) parameters on the number of live-born kit deaths and kit growth: T mean, T min, T max, T var (fluctuation) and H mean. The nest microclimate experienced by the kits was buffered against the ambient climate, with higher temperatures and reduced climate fluctuation. Most (77.0%) live-born kit deaths in the 1st week occurred on days 0 and 1. Seven of 15 climate parameters on days 1 to 3 had significant effects on live-born kit mortality. However, conflicting effects among days, marginal effects and late effects indicated that climate was not the primary cause of kit mortality. Five of 30 climate parameters had significant effects on kit growth. Few and conflicting effects indicated that the climate effect on growth was negligible. One exception was that large nest temperature fluctuations on day 1 were associated with reduced deaths of live-born kit (P<0.001) and increased kit growth (P=0.003). Litter size affected kit vitality; larger total litter size at birth was associated with greater risks of kit death (P<0.001) and reduced growth (P<0.001). The number of living kits in litters had the opposite effect, as kits in large liveborn litters had a reduced risk of death (P<0.001) and those with large mean litter size on days 1 to 7 had increased growth (P=0.026). Nest box temperature had little effect on early kit survival and growth, which could be due to dams' additional maternal behaviour. Therefore, we cannot confirm that temperature is the primary reason for kit mortality, under the conditions of plenty straw access for maternal nest building. Instead, prenatal and/or parturient litter size is the primary factor influencing early kit vitality. The results indicate that the focus should be on litter size and dam welfare around the times of gestation and birth to increase early kit survival in farmed mink.

EFFICACY OF USING A GIANT EMBRYO MUTANT FOR ENHANCING WHOLE GRAIN RICE HEALTH BENEFICIAL PROPERTIES

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Globally, the five leading risks for adult mortality are life style related. These risk factors include smoking, physical inactivity and others that are diet related, specifically, obesity, high blood pressure and blood glucose levels. Consumption of whole grains has been associated with a reduced ...

Fire treatment effects on vegetation structure, fuels, and potential fire severity in western U.S. forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stephens, S.L.; Moghaddas, J.J.; Edminster, C.; Fiedler, C.E.; Haase, S.; Harrington, M.; Keeley, J.E.; Knapp, E.E.; Mciver, J.D.; Metlen, K.; Skinner, C.N.; Youngblood, A.

2009-01-01

Abstract. Forest structure and species composition in many western U.S. coniferous forests have been altered through fire exclusion, past and ongoing harvesting practices, and livestock grazing over the 20th century. The effects of these activities have been most pronounced in seasonally dry, low and mid-elevation coniferous forests that once experienced frequent, low to moderate intensity, fire regimes. In this paper, we report the effects of Fire and Fire Surrogate (FFS) forest stand treatments on fuel load profiles, potential fire behavior, and fire severity under three weather scenarios from six western U.S. FFS sites. This replicated, multisite experiment provides a framework for drawing broad generalizations about the effectiveness of prescribed fire and mechanical treatments on surface fuel loads, forest structure, and potential fire severity. Mechanical treatments without fire resulted in combined 1-, 10-, and 100-hour surface fuel loads that were significantly greater than controls at three of five FFS sites. Canopy cover was significantly lower than controls at three of five FFS sites with mechanical-only treatments and at all five FFS sites with the mechanical plus burning treatment; fire-only treatments reduced canopy cover at only one site. For the combined treatment of mechanical plus fire, all five FFS sites with this treatment had a substantially lower likelihood of passive crown fire as indicated by the very high torching indices. FFS sites that experienced significant increases in 1-, 10-, and 100-hour combined surface fuel loads utilized harvest systems that left all activity fuels within experimental units. When mechanical treatments were followed by prescribed burning or pile burning, they were the most effective treatment for reducing crown fire potential and predicted tree mortality because of low surface fuel loads and increased vertical and horizontal canopy separation. Results indicate that mechanical plus fire, fire-only, and mechanical-only treatments using whole-tree harvest systems were all effective at reducing potential fire severity under severe fire weather conditions. Retaining the largest trees within stands also increased fire resistance. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Health economic aspects of vertebral augmentation procedures.

PubMed

Borgström, F; Beall, D P; Berven, S; Boonen, S; Christie, S; Kallmes, D F; Kanis, J A; Olafsson, G; Singer, A J; Åkesson, K

2015-04-01

We reviewed all peer-reviewed papers analysing the cost-effectiveness of vertebroplasty and balloon kyphoplasty for osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures. In general, the procedures appear to be cost effective but are very dependent upon model input details. Better data, rather than new models, are needed to answer outstanding questions. Vertebral augmentation procedures (VAPs), including vertebroplasty (VP) and balloon kyphoplasty (BKP), seek to stabilise fractured vertebral bodies and reduce pain. The aim of this paper is to review current literature on the cost-effectiveness of VAPs as well as to discuss the challenges for economic evaluation in this research area. A systematic literature search was conducted to identify existing published studies on the cost-effectiveness of VAPs in patients with osteoporosis. Only peer-reviewed published articles that fulfilled the criteria of being regarded as full economic evaluations including both morbidity and mortality in the outcome measure in the form of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were included. The search identified 949 studies, of which four (0.4 %) were identified as relevant with one study added later. The reviewed studies differed widely in terms of study design, modelling framework and data used, yielding different results and conclusions regarding the cost-effectiveness of VAPs. Three out of five studies indicated in the base case results that VAPs were cost effective compared to non-surgical management (NSM). The five main factors that drove the variations in the cost-effectiveness between the studies were time horizon, quality of life effect of treatment, offset time of the treatment effect, reduced number of bed days associated with VAPs and mortality benefit with treatment. The cost-effectiveness of VAPs is uncertain. In answering the remaining questions, new cost-effectiveness analysis will yield limited benefit. Rather, studies that can reduce the uncertainty in the underlying data, especially regarding the long-term clinical outcomes of VAPs, should be conducted.

Estimating the Impact of Reducing Under-Nutrition on the Tuberculosis Epidemic in the Central Eastern States of India: A Dynamic Modeling Study.

PubMed

Oxlade, Olivia; Huang, Chuan-Chin; Murray, Megan

2015-01-01

Tuberculosis (TB) and under-nutrition are widespread in many low and middle-income countries. Momentum to prioritize under-nutrition has been growing at an international level, as demonstrated by the "Scaling Up Nutrition" movement. Low body mass index is an important risk factor for developing TB disease. The objective of this study was to project future trends in TB related outcomes under different scenarios for reducing under-nutrition in the adult population in the Central Eastern states of India. A compartmental TB transmission model stratified by body mass index was parameterized using national and regional data from India. We compared TB related mortality and incidence under several scenarios that represented a range of policies and programs designed to reduce the prevalence of under-nutrition, based on the experience and observed trends in similar countries. The modeled nutrition intervention scenarios brought about reductions in TB incidence and TB related mortality in the Central Eastern Indian states ranging from 43% to 71% and 40% to 68% respectively, relative to the scenario of no nutritional intervention. Modest reductions in under-nutrition averted 4.8 (95% UR 0.5, 17.1) million TB cases and 1.6 (95% UR 0.5, 5.2) million TB related deaths over a period of 20 years of intervention, relative to the scenario of no nutritional intervention. Complete elimination of under-nutrition in the Central Eastern states averted 9.4 (95% UR 1.5, 30.6) million TB cases and 3.2 (95% UR 0.7-, 10.1) million TB related deaths, relative to the scenario of no nutritional intervention. Our study suggests that intervening on under-nutrition could have a substantial impact on TB incidence and mortality in areas with high prevalence of under-nutrition, even if only small gains in under-nutrition can be achieved. Focusing on under-nutrition may be an effective way to reduce both rates of TB and other diseases associated with under-nutrition.

North-South disparities in English mortality1965-2015: longitudinal population study.

PubMed

Buchan, Iain E; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Sperrin, Matthew; Chandola, Tarani; Doran, Tim

2017-09-01

Social, economic and health disparities between northern and southern England have persisted despite Government policies to reduce them. We examine long-term trends in premature mortality in northern and southern England across age groups, and whether mortality patterns changed after the 2008-2009 Great Recession. Population-wide longitudinal (1965-2015) study of mortality in England's five northernmost versus four southernmost Government Office Regions - halves of overall population. directly age-sex adjusted mortality rates; northern excess mortality (percentage excess northern vs southern deaths, age-sex adjusted). From 1965 to 2010, premature mortality (deaths per 10 000 aged <75 years) declined from 64 to 28 in southern versus 72 to 35 in northern England. From 2010 to 2015 the rate of decline in premature mortality plateaued in northern and southern England. For most age groups, northern excess mortality remained consistent from 1965 to 2015. For 25-34 and 35-44 age groups, however, northern excess mortality increased sharply between 1995 and 2015: from 2.2% (95% CI -3.2% to 7.6%) to 29.3% (95% CI 21.0% to 37.6%); and 3.3% (95% CI -1.0% to 7.6%) to 49.4% (95% CI 42.8% to 55.9%), respectively. This was due to northern mortality increasing (ages 25-34) or plateauing (ages 35-44) from the mid-1990s while southern mortality mainly declined. England's northern excess mortality has been consistent among those aged <25 and 45+ for the past five decades but risen alarmingly among those aged 25-44 since the mid-90s, long before the Great Recession. This profound and worsening structural inequality requires more equitable economic, social and health policies, including potential reactions to the England-wide loss of improvement in premature mortality. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bolivia from the state perspective.

PubMed

Smith, Emily R; Rowlinson, Emily E; Iniguez, Volga; Etienne, Kizee A; Rivera, Rosario; Mamani, Nataniel; Rheingans, Rick; Patzi, Maritza; Halkyer, Percy; Leon, Juan S

2011-09-02

In Bolivia, in 2008, the under-five mortality rate is 54 per 1000 live births. Diarrhea causes 15% of these deaths, and 40% of pediatric diarrhea-related hospitalizations are caused by rotavirus illness (RI). Rotavirus vaccination (RV), subsidized by international donors, is expected to reduce morbidity, mortality, and economic burden to the Bolivian state. Estimates of illness and economic burden of RI and their reduction by RV are essential to the Bolivian state's policies on RV program financing. The goal of this report is to estimate the economic burden of RI and the cost-effectiveness of the RV program. To assess treatment costs incurred by the healthcare system, we abstracted medical records from 287 inpatients and 6751 outpatients with acute diarrhea between 2005 and 2006 at 5 sentinel hospitals in 4 geographic regions. RI prevalence rates were estimated from 4 years of national hospital surveillance. We used a decision-analytic model to assess the potential cost-effectiveness of universal RV in Bolivia. Our model estimates that, in a 5-year birth cohort, Bolivia will incur over US$3 million in direct medical costs due to RI. RV reduces, by at least 60%, outpatient visits, hospitalizations, deaths, and total direct medical costs associated with rotavirus diarrhea. Further, RV was cost-savings below a price of US$3.81 per dose and cost-effective below a price of US$194.10 per dose. Diarrheal mortality and hospitalization inputs were the most important drivers of rotavirus vaccine cost-effectiveness. Our data will guide Bolivia's funding allocation for RV as international subsidies change. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determinants of neonatal mortality in Indonesia

PubMed Central

Titaley, Christiana R; Dibley, Michael J; Agho, Kingsley; Roberts, Christine L; Hall, John

2008-01-01

Background Neonatal mortality accounts for almost 40 per cent of under-five child mortality, globally. An understanding of the factors related to neonatal mortality is important to guide the development of focused and evidence-based health interventions to prevent neonatal deaths. This study aimed to identify the determinants of neonatal mortality in Indonesia, for a nationally representative sample of births from 1997 to 2002. Methods The data source for the analysis was the 2002–2003 Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey from which survival information of 15,952 singleton live-born infants born between 1997 and 2002 was examined. Multilevel logistic regression using a hierarchical approach was performed to analyze the factors associated with neonatal deaths, using community, socio-economic status and proximate determinants. Results At the community level, the odds of neonatal death was significantly higher for infants from East Java (OR = 5.01, p = 0.00), and for North, Central and Southeast Sulawesi and Gorontalo combined (OR = 3.17, p = 0.03) compared to the lowest neonatal mortality regions of Bali, South Sulawesi and Jambi provinces. A progressive reduction in the odds was found as the percentage of deliveries assisted by trained delivery attendants in the cluster increased. The odds of neonatal death were higher for infants born to both mother and father who were employed (OR = 1.84, p = 0.00) and for infants born to father who were unemployed (OR = 2.99, p = 0.02). The odds were also higher for higher rank infants with a short birth interval (OR = 2.82, p = 0.00), male infants (OR = 1.49, p = 0.01), smaller than average-sized infants (OR = 2.80, p = 0.00), and infant's whose mother had a history of delivery complications (OR = 1.81, p = 0.00). Infants receiving any postnatal care were significantly protected from neonatal death (OR = 0.63, p = 0.03). Conclusion Public health interventions directed at reducing neonatal death should address community, household and individual level factors which significantly influence neonatal mortality in Indonesia. Low birth weight and short birth interval infants as well as perinatal health services factors, such as the availability of skilled birth attendance and postnatal care utilization should be taken into account when planning the interventions to reduce neonatal mortality in Indonesia. PMID:18613953

Appropriate doses of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants in high-risk subgroups with atrial fibrillation: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kim, In-Soo; Kim, Hyun-Jung; Kim, Tae-Hoon; Uhm, Jae-Sun; Joung, Boyoung; Lee, Moon-Hyoung; Pak, Hui-Nam

2018-04-26

We evaluated the dose-dependent efficacy, safety, and all-cause mortality of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) in "atrial fibrillation (AF) patients who were OAC-naïve," or "AF patients with prior-stroke history" with those who were known to be high-risk subgroups under OAC. After a systematic database search (Medline, EMBASE, CENTRAL, SCOPUS, and Web of Science), five phase-III randomized trials comparing NOACs and warfarin in "OAC-naïve/OAC-experienced," or "with/without prior-stroke history" subgroups were included. The outcomes were pooled using a random-effects model to determine the relative risk (RR) for stroke/systemic thromboembolism (SSTE), major bleeding, intracranial hemorrhage, and all-cause mortality. 1. In OAC-naïve patients, standard-dose NOACs showed superior efficacy and safety with lower mortality [RR 0.90 (0.84-0.97), p=0.008, I 2 =0%] compared to warfarin. 2. For OAC-experienced patients, low-dose NOACs showed equivalent efficacy but reduced risk of major bleeding [RR 0.61 (0.40-0.91), p=0.02, I 2 =89%], and had lower all-cause mortality [RR 0.86 (0.75-0.99), p=0.04, I 2 =38%] compared to warfarin. 3. For patients with prior-stroke history, low-dose NOACs showed equivalent efficacy, but reduced risk of major bleeding [RR 0.58 (0.48-0.70), p<0.001, I 2 =0%] and all-cause mortality [RR 0.76 (0.66-0.88), p<0.001, I 2 =0%] compared to warfarin. 4. Among patients without prior-stroke history, standard-dose NOAC was superior to warfarin for both SSTE prevention [RR 0.78 (0.66-0.91), p=0.002, I 2 =43%] and all-cause mortality [RR 0.91 (0.85-0.97), p=0.004, I 2 =0%]. In conclusion, standard-dose NOAC showed lower all-cause mortality than warfarin in OAC-naïve patients with AF, and low-dose NOAC was better than warfarin among the patients with prior-stroke history in terms of all-cause mortality. Copyright © 2018 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determinants of neonatal mortality in Indonesia.

PubMed

Titaley, Christiana R; Dibley, Michael J; Agho, Kingsley; Roberts, Christine L; Hall, John

2008-07-09

Neonatal mortality accounts for almost 40 per cent of under-five child mortality, globally. An understanding of the factors related to neonatal mortality is important to guide the development of focused and evidence-based health interventions to prevent neonatal deaths. This study aimed to identify the determinants of neonatal mortality in Indonesia, for a nationally representative sample of births from 1997 to 2002. The data source for the analysis was the 2002-2003 Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey from which survival information of 15,952 singleton live-born infants born between 1997 and 2002 was examined. Multilevel logistic regression using a hierarchical approach was performed to analyze the factors associated with neonatal deaths, using community, socio-economic status and proximate determinants. At the community level, the odds of neonatal death was significantly higher for infants from East Java (OR = 5.01, p = 0.00), and for North, Central and Southeast Sulawesi and Gorontalo combined (OR = 3.17, p = 0.03) compared to the lowest neonatal mortality regions of Bali, South Sulawesi and Jambi provinces. A progressive reduction in the odds was found as the percentage of deliveries assisted by trained delivery attendants in the cluster increased. The odds of neonatal death were higher for infants born to both mother and father who were employed (OR = 1.84, p = 0.00) and for infants born to father who were unemployed (OR = 2.99, p = 0.02). The odds were also higher for higher rank infants with a short birth interval (OR = 2.82, p = 0.00), male infants (OR = 1.49, p = 0.01), smaller than average-sized infants (OR = 2.80, p = 0.00), and infant's whose mother had a history of delivery complications (OR = 1.81, p = 0.00). Infants receiving any postnatal care were significantly protected from neonatal death (OR = 0.63, p = 0.03). Public health interventions directed at reducing neonatal death should address community, household and individual level factors which significantly influence neonatal mortality in Indonesia. Low birth weight and short birth interval infants as well as perinatal health services factors, such as the availability of skilled birth attendance and postnatal care utilization should be taken into account when planning the interventions to reduce neonatal mortality in Indonesia.

Unemployment, government healthcare spending, and cerebrovascular mortality, worldwide 1981-2009: an ecological study.

PubMed

Maruthappu, Mahiben; Shalhoub, Joseph; Tariq, Zoon; Williams, Callum; Atun, Rifat; Davies, Alun H; Zeltner, Thomas

2015-04-01

The global economic downturn has been associated with unemployment rises, reduced health spending, and worsened population health. This has raised the question of how economic variations affect health outcomes. We sought to determine the effect of changes in unemployment and government healthcare expenditure on cerebrovascular mortality globally. Data were obtained from the World Bank and World Health Organization. Multivariate regression analysis was used to assess the effect of changes in unemployment and government healthcare expenditure on cerebrovascular mortality. Country-specific differences in infrastructure and demographics were controlled for. One- to five-year lag analyses and robustness checks were conducted. Across 99 countries worldwide, between 1981 and 2009, every 1% increase in unemployment was associated with a significant increase in cerebrovascular mortality (coefficient 187, CI: 86.6-288, P = 0.0003). Every 1% rise in government healthcare expenditure, across both genders, was associated with significant decreases in cerebrovascular deaths (coefficient 869, CI: 383-1354, P = 0.0005). The association between unemployment and cerebrovascular mortality remained statistically significant for at least five years subsequent to the 1% unemployment rise, while the association between government healthcare expenditure and cerebrovascular mortality remained significant for two years. These relationships were both shown to be independent of changes in gross domestic product per capita, inflation, interest rates, urbanization, nutrition, education, and out-of-pocket spending. Rises in unemployment and reductions in government healthcare expenditure are associated with significant increases in cerebrovascular mortality globally. Clinicians may also need to consider unemployment as a possible risk factor for cerebrovascular disease mortality. © 2015 World Stroke Organization.

Perioperative mortality in cats and dogs undergoing spay or castration at a high-volume clinic.

PubMed

Levy, J K; Bard, K M; Tucker, S J; Diskant, P D; Dingman, P A

2017-06-01

High volume spay-neuter (spay-castration) clinics have been established to improve population control of cats and dogs to reduce the number of animals admitted to and euthanazed in animal shelters. The rise in the number of spay-neuter clinics in the USA has been accompanied by concern about the quality of animal care provided in high volume facilities, which focus on minimally invasive, time saving techniques, high throughput and simultaneous management of multiple animals under various stages of anesthesia. The aim of this study was to determine perioperative mortality for cats and dogs in a high volume spay-neuter clinic in the USA. Electronic medical records and a written mortality log were used to collect data for 71,557 cats and 42,349 dogs undergoing spay-neuter surgery from 2010 to 2016 at a single high volume clinic in Florida. Perioperative mortality was defined as deaths occurring in the 24h period starting with the administration of the first sedation or anesthetic drugs. Perioperative mortality was reported for 34 cats and four dogs for an overall mortality of 3.3 animals/10,000 surgeries (0.03%). The risk of mortality was more than twice as high for females (0.05%) as for males (0.02%) (P=0.008) and five times as high for cats (0.05%) as for dogs (0.009%) (P=0.0007). High volume spay-neuter surgery was associated with a lower mortality rate than that previously reported in low volume clinics, approaching that achieved in human surgery. This is likely to be due to the young, healthy population of dogs and cats, and the continuous refinement of techniques based on experience and the skills and proficiency of teams that specialize in a limited spectrum of procedures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Innate resistance of mice to experimental infection with Naegleria fowleri.

PubMed Central

Haggerty, R M; John, D T

1978-01-01

The mouse system provides an excellent model for studying host resistance to Naegleria fowleri, the agent of primary amoebic meningoencephalitis. Innate resistance to infection with N. fowleri was examined with respect to infecting dose and the age, sex, and strain of mice. Intravenous inoculation with 10(7) amoebae per mouse produced 100% mortality in 9 days, whereas inoculation with fewer amoebae reduced the cumulative mortality. Male and female DUB/ICR mice of varying ages were inoculated intravenously with 2.5 X 10(5) N. fowleri per g of body weight. The youngest mice died first, with 100% mortality for both males and females, and mortality decreased with increasing age. Female mice were significantly more resistant to infection than males. Five strains of mice weighing approximately 20 g were inoculated intravenously with weight-adjusted doses; mortality ranged from 10% in C57BL/6 mice to 95% in A/HeCr mice. PMID:669800

Impact Evaluation of Malaria Control Interventions on Morbidity and All-Cause Child Mortality in Rwanda, 2000-2010.

PubMed

Eckert, Erin; Florey, Lia S; Tongren, Jon Eric; Salgado, S René; Rukundo, Alphonse; Habimana, Jean Pierre; Hakizimana, Emmanuel; Munguti, Kaendi; Umulisa, Noella; Mulindahabi, Monique; Karema, Corine

2017-09-01

The impressive decline in child mortality that occurred in Rwanda from 1996-2000 to 2006-2010 coincided with a period of rapid increase of malaria control interventions such as indoor residual spraying (IRS); insecticide-treated net (ITN) distribution and use, and improved malaria case management. The impact of these interventions was examined through ecological correlation analysis, and robust decomposition analysis of contextual factors on all-cause child mortality. Child mortality fell 61% during the evaluation period and prevalence of severe anemia in children 6-23 months declined 71% between 2005 and 2010. These changes in malaria morbidity and mortality occurred concurrently with a substantial increase in vector control activities. ITN use increased among children under five, from 4% to 70%. The IRS program began in 2007 and covered 1.3 million people in the highest burden districts by 2010. At the same time, diagnosis and treatment with an effective antimalarial expanded nationally, and included making services available to children under the age of 5 at the community level. The percentage of children under 5 who sought care for a fever increased from 26% in 2000 to 48% in 2010. Multivariable models of the change in child mortality between 2000 and 2010 using nationally representative data reveal the importance of increasing ITN ownership in explaining the observed mortality declines. Taken as a whole, the evidence supports the conclusion that malaria control interventions contributed to the observed decline in child mortality in Rwanda from 2000 to 2010, even in a context of improving socioeconomic, maternal, and child health conditions.

Measles vaccination improves the equity of health outcomes: evidence from Bangladesh.

PubMed

Bishai, David; Koenig, Michael; Ali Khan, Mehrab

2003-05-01

This paper asks whether measles vaccination can reduce socioeconomic differentials in under five mortality rates (U5MR) in a setting characterized by extreme poverty and high levels of childhood mortality. Longitudinal cohort study based on quasi experimental design. Data come from the phased introduction of a measles vaccine intervention in Matlab, Bangladesh in 1982. There were 16 270 Bangladeshi children aged 9-60 months. The intervention cohort received measles vaccine. Socioeconomic differentials in U5MR between the lowest and highest socioeconomic status (SES) quintiles in a cohort of 8135 vaccinated children and a cohort of unvaccinated age matched controls. Mantel-Haenszel rate ratios for the lowest to highest SES quintile were computed. SES was measured by factor analysis of maternal schooling, land holdings, dwelling size, and number of rooms. The U5MR ratio of lowest SES to highest was 2.27 (95% CI=1.62-3.19) in the unvaccinated population and 1.42 (95%CI=0.94-2.15) in the vaccinated population. The difference between unvaccinated and vaccinated U5MR ratios was statistically significant (p<0.10) and robust across alternative measures of SES. Children from the poorest quintile were more than twice as likely to die as those from the least quintile in the absence of measles vaccination. Universal distribution of measles vaccination largely nullified SES related mortality differentials within a high mortality population of children. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

High mortality of Red Sea zooplankton under ambient solar radiation.

PubMed

Al-Aidaroos, Ali M; El-Sherbiny, Mohsen M O; Satheesh, Sathianeson; Mantha, Gopikrishna; Agustī, Susana; Carreja, Beatriz; Duarte, Carlos M

2014-01-01

High solar radiation along with extreme transparency leads to high penetration of solar radiation in the Red Sea, potentially harmful to biota inhabiting the upper water column, including zooplankton. Here we show, based on experimental assessments of solar radiation dose-mortality curves on eight common taxa, the mortality of zooplankton in the oligotrophic waters of the Red Sea to increase steeply with ambient levels of solar radiation in the Red Sea. Responses curves linking solar radiation doses with zooplankton mortality were evaluated by exposing organisms, enclosed in quartz bottles, allowing all the wavelengths of solar radiation to penetrate, to five different levels of ambient solar radiation (100%, 21.6%, 7.2%, 3.2% and 0% of solar radiation). The maximum mortality rates under ambient solar radiation levels averaged (±standard error of the mean, SEM) 18.4±5.8% h(-1), five-fold greater than the average mortality in the dark for the eight taxa tested. The UV-B radiation required for mortality rates to reach ½ of maximum values averaged (±SEM) 12±5.6 h(-1)% of incident UVB radiation, equivalent to the UV-B dose at 19.2±2.7 m depth in open coastal Red Sea waters. These results confirm that Red Sea zooplankton are highly vulnerable to ambient solar radiation, as a consequence of the combination of high incident radiation and high water transparency allowing deep penetration of damaging UV-B radiation. These results provide evidence of the significance of ambient solar radiation levels as a stressor of marine zooplankton communities in tropical, oligotrophic waters. Because the oligotrophic ocean extends across 70% of the ocean surface, solar radiation can be a globally-significant stressor for the ocean ecosystem, by constraining zooplankton use of the upper levels of the water column and, therefore, the efficiency of food transfer up the food web in the oligotrophic ocean.

Quality of governance, public spending on health and health status in Sub Saharan Africa: a panel data regression analysis.

PubMed

Makuta, Innocent; O'Hare, Bernadette

2015-09-21

The population in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) suffers poor health as manifested in high mortality rates and low life expectancy. Economic growth has consistently been shown to be a major determinant of health outcomes. However, even with good economic growth rates, it is not possible to achieve desired improvements in health outcomes. Public spending on health (PSH) has long been viewed as a potential complement to economic growth in improving health. However, the relationship between PSH and health outcomes is inconclusive and this inconclusiveness may, in part, be explained by governance-related factors which mediate the impact of the former on the latter. Little empirical work has been done in this regard on SSA. This paper investigates whether or not the quality of governance (QoG) has a modifying effect on the impact of public health spending on health outcomes, measured by under-five mortality (U5M) and life expectancy at birth (LE), in SSA. Using two staged least squares regression technique on panel data from 43 countries in SSA over the period 1996-2011, we estimated the effect of public spending on health and quality of governance U5M and LE, controlling for GDP per capita and other socio-economic factors. We also interacted PSH and QoG to find out if the latter has a modifying effect on the former's impact on U5M and LE. Public spending on health has a statistically significant impact in improving health outcomes. Its direct elasticity with respect to under-five mortality is between -0.09 and -0.11 while its semi-elasticity with respect to life expectancy is between 0.35 and 0.60. Allowing for indirect effect of PSH spending via interaction with quality of governance, we find that an improvement in QoG enhances the overall impact of PSH. In countries with higher quality of governance, the overall elasticity of PSH with respect to under-five mortality is between -0.17 and -0.19 while in countries with lower quality of governance, it is about -0.09. The corresponding semi elasticities with respect to life expectancy are about 6 in countries with higher QoG and about 3 in countries with lower QoG. Public spending on health improves health outcomes. Its impact is mediated by quality of governance, having the higher impact on health outcomes in countries with higher quality of governance and lower impact in countries with lower quality of governance. This may be due to increased efficiency in the use of available resources and better allocation of the same as QoG improves. Improving QoG would improve health outcomes in SSA. The same increase in PSH is twice as effective in reducing U5M and increasing LE in countries with good QoG when compared with countries with poor QoG.

Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Gasparrini, Antonio; Guo, Yuming; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Huber, Veronika; Tong, Shilu; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Lavigne, Eric; Matus Correa, Patricia; Valdes Ortega, Nicolas; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Ryti, Niilo R I; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick G; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali; Cesar Cruz, Julio; Seposo, Xerxes; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Iñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Ragettli, Martina S; Guo, Yue Leon; Wu, Chang-Fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Van, Dung Do; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Hajat, Shakoor; Haines, Andy; Armstrong, Ben

2017-12-01

Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0% (-3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7% (-4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet. This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks. UK Medical Research Council.

How Do the Approaches to Accountability Compare for Charities Working in International Development?

PubMed Central

Kirsch, David

2014-01-01

Approaches to accountability vary between charities working to reduce under-five mortality in underdeveloped countries, and healthcare workers and facilities in Canada. Comparison reveals key differences, similarities and trade-offs. For example, while health professionals are governed by legislation and healthcare facilities have a de facto obligation to be accredited, charities and other international organizations are not subject to mandatory international laws or guidelines or to de facto international standards. Charities have policy goals similar to those found in the Canadian substudies, including access, quality, cost control, cost-effectiveness and customer satisfaction. However, the relative absence of external policy tools means that these goals may not be realized. Accountability can be beneficial, but too much or the wrong kind of accountability can divert resources and diminish returns. PMID:25305397

Application of artificial neural networks to establish a predictive mortality risk model in children admitted to a paediatric intensive care unit.

PubMed

Chan, C H; Chan, E Y; Ng, D K; Chow, P Y; Kwok, K L

2006-11-01

Paediatric risk of mortality and paediatric index of mortality (PIM) are the commonly-used mortality prediction models (MPM) in children admitted to paediatric intensive care unit (PICU). The current study was undertaken to develop a better MPM using artificial neural network, a domain of artificial intelligence. The purpose of this retrospective case series was to compare an artificial neural network (ANN) model and PIM with the observed mortality in a cohort of patients admitted to a five-bed PICU in a Hong Kong non-teaching general hospital. The patients were under the age of 17 years and admitted to our PICU from April 2001 to December 2004. Data were collected from each patient admitted to our PICU. All data were randomly allocated to either the training or validation set. The data from the training set were used to construct a series of ANN models. The data from the validation set were used to validate the ANN and PIM models. The accuracy of ANN models and PIM was assessed by area under the receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curve and calibration. All data were randomly allocated to either the training (n=274) or validation set (n=273). Three ANN models were developed using the data from the training set, namely ANN8 (trained with variables required for PIM), ANN9 (trained with variables required for PIM and pre-ICU intubation) and ANN23 (trained with variables required for ANN9 and 14 principal ICU diagnoses). Three ANN models and PIM were used to predict mortality in the validation set. We found that PIM and ANN9 had a high ROC curve (PIM: 0.808, 95 percent confidence interval 0.552 to 1.000, ANN9: 0.957, 95 percent confidence interval 0.915 to 1.000), whereas ANN8 and ANN23 gave a suboptimal area under the ROC curve. ANN8 required only five variables for the calculation of risk, compared with eight for PIM. The current study demonstrated the process of predictive mortality risk model development using ANN. Further multicentre studies are required to produce a representative ANN-based mortality prediction model for use in different PICUs.

77 FR 12009 - Marine Mammals; File No. 16991

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-28

... condition of coastal populations of harbor seals in California, Oregon, Washington, and Alaska over a 5-year... elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris) could be disturbed during activities conducted under this permit. The applicant requests up to ten incidental mortalities of harbor seals per year with a five-year...

Influence of family size, household food security status, and child care practices on the nutritional status of under-five children in Ile-Ife, Nigeria.

PubMed

Ajao, K O; Ojofeitimi, E O; Adebayo, A A; Fatusi, A O; Afolabi, O T

2010-12-01

Fertility pattern and reproductive behaviours affect infant death in Nigeria. Household food insecurity and poor care practices also place children at risk of morbidity and mortality. The objectives of this study were to assess the influence of family size, household food security status, and child care practices on the nutritional status of under-five children in Ile-Ife, Nigeria. The study employed a descriptive cross-sectional design. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect data from 423 mothers of under-five children and their children in the households selected through multistage sampling methods. Food-insecure households were five times more likely than secure households to have wasted children (crude OR = 5.707, 95 percent CI = 1.31-24.85). Children with less educated mothers were significantly more likely to be stunted. The prevalence of food insecurity among households in Ile-Ife was high. Households with food insecurity and less educated mothers were more likely to have malnourished children.

Associations of gender inequality with child malnutrition and mortality across 96 countries.

PubMed

Marphatia, A A; Cole, T J; Grijalva-Eternod, C; Wells, J C K

2016-01-01

National efforts to reduce low birth weight (LBW) and child malnutrition and mortality prioritise economic growth. However, this may be ineffective, while rising gross domestic product (GDP) also imposes health costs, such as obesity and non-communicable disease. There is a need to identify other potential routes for improving child health. We investigated associations of the Gender Inequality Index (GII), a national marker of women's disadvantages in reproductive health, empowerment and labour market participation, with the prevalence of LBW, child malnutrition (stunting and wasting) and mortality under 5 years in 96 countries, adjusting for national GDP. The GII displaced GDP as a predictor of LBW, explaining 36% of the variance. Independent of GDP, the GII explained 10% of the variance in wasting and stunting and 41% of the variance in child mortality. Simulations indicated that reducing GII could lead to major reductions in LBW, child malnutrition and mortality in low- and middle-income countries. Independent of national wealth, reducing women's disempowerment relative to men may reduce LBW and promote child nutritional status and survival. Longitudinal studies are now needed to evaluate the impact of efforts to reduce societal gender inequality.

Development and Validation of a Deep Neural Network Model for Prediction of Postoperative In-hospital Mortality.

PubMed

Lee, Christine K; Hofer, Ira; Gabel, Eilon; Baldi, Pierre; Cannesson, Maxime

2018-04-17

The authors tested the hypothesis that deep neural networks trained on intraoperative features can predict postoperative in-hospital mortality. The data used to train and validate the algorithm consists of 59,985 patients with 87 features extracted at the end of surgery. Feed-forward networks with a logistic output were trained using stochastic gradient descent with momentum. The deep neural networks were trained on 80% of the data, with 20% reserved for testing. The authors assessed improvement of the deep neural network by adding American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) Physical Status Classification and robustness of the deep neural network to a reduced feature set. The networks were then compared to ASA Physical Status, logistic regression, and other published clinical scores including the Surgical Apgar, Preoperative Score to Predict Postoperative Mortality, Risk Quantification Index, and the Risk Stratification Index. In-hospital mortality in the training and test sets were 0.81% and 0.73%. The deep neural network with a reduced feature set and ASA Physical Status classification had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, 0.91 (95% CI, 0.88 to 0.93). The highest logistic regression area under the curve was found with a reduced feature set and ASA Physical Status (0.90, 95% CI, 0.87 to 0.93). The Risk Stratification Index had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, at 0.97 (95% CI, 0.94 to 0.99). Deep neural networks can predict in-hospital mortality based on automatically extractable intraoperative data, but are not (yet) superior to existing methods.

Countdown to 2015: will the Millennium Development Goal for child survival be met?

PubMed Central

Lawn, Joy E; Costello, Anthony; Mwansambo, Charles; Osrin, David

2007-01-01

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), ratified by most nations in 2000, set specific targets for poverty reduction, eradication of hunger, education, gender equality, health and environmental sustainability. MDG 4 aims to reduce child mortality with a target of reducing under‐five mortality rates by two thirds over the period 1990–2015. Over the last year, Live Aid, Make Poverty History, the G8 summits and prominent entertainers have directed unprecedented attention towards development and health. Africa particularly has been in the spotlight. Reports are published and commitments are made, but is there real progress? Are poor people being reached with essential health care? Who will hold leaders to account: celebrities, activists or health professionals? PMID:17515627

A health intervention or a kitchen appliance? Household costs and benefits of a cleaner burning biomass-fuelled cookstove in Malawi.

PubMed

Cundale, Katie; Thomas, Ranjeeta; Malava, Jullita Kenala; Havens, Deborah; Mortimer, Kevin; Conteh, Lesong

2017-06-01

Pneumonia is the leading cause of mortality for children under five years in sub-Saharan Africa. Household air pollution has been found to increase risk of pneumonia, especially due to exposure from dirty burning biomass fuels. It has been suggested that advanced stoves, which burn fuel more efficiently and reduce smoke emissions, may help to reduce household air pollution in poor, rural settings. This qualitative study aims to provide an insight into the household costs and perceived benefits from use of the stove in Malawi. It was conducted alongside The Cooking and Pneumonia Study (CAPS), the largest village cluster-level randomised controlled trial of an advanced combustion cookstove intervention to prevent pneumonia in children under five to date. In 2015, using 100 semi-structured interviews this study assessed household time use and perceptions of the stove from both control and intervention participants taking part in the CAPS trial in Chilumba. Household direct and indirect costs associated with the intervention were calculated. Users overwhelming liked using the stove. The main reported benefits were reduced cooking times and reduced fuel consumption. In most interviews, the health benefits were not initially identified as advantages of the stove, although when prompted, respondents stated that reduced smoke emissions contributed to a reduction in respiratory symptoms. The cost of the stove was much higher than most respondents said they would be willing to pay. The stoves were not primarily seen as health products. Perceptions of limited impact on health was subsequently supported by the CAPS trial data which showed no significant effect on pneumonia. While the findings are encouraging from the perspective of acceptability, without innovative financing mechanisms, general uptake and sustained use of the stove may not be possible in this setting. The findings also raise the question of whether the stoves should be marketed and championed as 'health interventions'. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

NGO-promoted women's credit program, immunization coverage, and child mortality in rural Bangladesh.

PubMed

Amin, R; Li, Y

1997-01-01

A growing number of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are adopting the collateral-free credit programs by anchoring them with their social development programs aimed at improved program effectiveness and sustainability. Drawing upon a sample of 3,564 targeted poor households covered by five small NGOs in rural Bangladesh, this study finds that the NGO credit-members as well as those who reside in the NGO program area are higher adopters of child immunization than those in the non-program area. Similarly, the study found that infant and child mortality is lower among the NGO credit members than among the non-members and that under five-year deaths of children progressively decline with the increase in the doses of vaccines. Implications of these findings are discussed in the study.

A panel analysis of the strategic association between information and communication technology and public health delivery.

PubMed

Wu, Sarah Jinhui; Raghupathi, Wullianallur

2012-10-22

In this exploratory research, we use panel data analysis to examine the correlation between Information and Communication Technology (ICTs) and public health delivery at the country level. The goal of this exploratory research is to examine the strategic association over time between ICTs and country-level public health. Using data from the World Development Indicators, we construct a panel data set of countries of five different income levels and look closely at the period from 2000 to 2008. The panel data analysis allows us to explore this dynamic relationship under the control for unobserved country-specific effects by using a fixed-effects estimation method. In particular,, we examine the association of five ICT factors with five public health indicators: adolescent fertility rate, child immunization coverage, tuberculosis case detected, life expectancy, and adult mortality rate. First, overall ICTs' factors substantially improve a country's public health delivery on the top of wealth effect. Second, among all the ICTs' factors, accessibility is the only one that is associated with improvements in all aspects of public health delivery, while the contributions from the usage, quality, and applications are negligible. ICTs' accessibility factor is associated with a considerable extension to life expectancy and reduced adult mortality rate. Third, all entity-specific factors are significant in each model, indicating that countries' economic development level does influence their public health delivery. Our results indicate that ICT accessibility has a strong association with effective delivery of public health. There are others, but the key strategic applications are eHealth and mHealth. The findings of this study will help government officials and public health policy makers to formulate strategic decisions regarding the best ICT investments and deployment. For example, the study shows that providing accessibility should be a critical focus.

Downstream passage and impact of turbine shutdowns on survival of silver American Eels at five hydroelectric dams on the Shenandoah River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eyler, Sheila; Welsh, Stuart A.; Smith, David R.; Rockey, Mary

2016-01-01

Hydroelectric dams impact the downstream migrations of silver American Eels Anguilla rostrata via migratory delays and turbine mortality. A radiotelemetry study of American Eels was conducted to determine the impacts of five run-of-the-river hydroelectric dams located over a 195-km stretch of the Shenandoah River, Virginia–West Virginia, during fall 2007–summer 2010. Overall, 96 radio-tagged individuals (mean TL = 85.4 cm) migrated downstream past at least one dam during the study. Most American Eels passed dams relatively quickly; over half (57.9%) of the dam passage events occurred within 1 h of reaching a dam, and most (81.3%) occurred within 24 h of reaching the dam. Two-thirds of the dam passage events occurred via spill, and the remaining passage events were through turbines. Migratory delays at dams were shorter and American Eels were more likely to pass via spill over the dam during periods of high river discharge than during low river discharge. The extent of delay in migration did not differ between the passage routes (spill versus turbine). Twenty-eight American Eels suffered turbine-related mortality, which occurred at all five dams. Mortality rates for eels passing through turbines ranged from 15.8% to 40.7% at individual dams. Overall project-specific mortality rates (with all passage routes combined) ranged from 3.0% to 14.3%. To protect downstream-migrating American Eels, nighttime turbine shutdowns (1800–0600 hours) were implemented during September 15–December 15. Fifty percent of all downstream passage events in the study occurred during the turbine shutdown period. Implementation of the seasonal turbine shutdown period reduced cumulative mortality from 63.3% to 37.3% for American Eels passing all five dams. Modifying the turbine shutdown period to encompass more dates in the spring and linking the shutdowns to environmental conditions could provide greater protection to downstream-migrating American Eels.

Eighty percent of cancer is related to the environment.

PubMed

Schneiderman, M A

1978-04-01

Five reasons lead us to believe that much of cancer is environmentally related: 1. Beginning with the work of Yamagiwa and Ichikawa in 1915, cancer has been produced in the laboratory under the control of man. 2. The trends of cancer incidence (and mortality) have been sharply up in some cases (lung), and sharply down in others (stomach, uterine cervix). 3. There are large differences in cancer among different parts of the world, and within the United States. 4. Migrants from one part of the world to another take on the rates of the part of the world to which they migrate. 5. Removal of known causes from the environment has been followed by reduced cancer incidence. Environmental causes of cancer lie in both personal environment: cigarette smoking, use of alcohol, sexual habits, perhaps diet; and in the impersonal environment: industrial and occupational pollutants, water and air contaminants, pesticides, flame retardants, diet additives, drugs. A joint effort by persons and by governments can reduce the incidence of cancer.

Projection of Future Mortality Due to Temperature and Population Changes under Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

PubMed Central

Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Ejin; Lee, Woo-Seop; Chae, Yeora; Kim, Ho

2018-01-01

The Paris Agreement aims to limit the global temperature increase to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to even below 1.5 °C. Now, it should be asked what benefits are in pursuing these two targets. In this study, we assessed the temperature–mortality relationship using a distributed lag non-linear model in seven major cities of South Korea. Then, we projected future temperature-attributable mortality under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios for those cities. Mortality was projected to increase by 1.53 under the RCP 4.5 (temperature increase by 2.83 °C) and 3.3 under the RCP 8.5 (temperature increase by 5.10 °C) until the 2090s, as compared to baseline (1991–2015) mortality. However, future mortality is expected to increase by less than 1.13 and 1.26 if the 1.5 °C and 2 °C increase targets are met, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. Achieving the more ambitious target of 1.5 °C will reduce mortality by 12%, when compared to the 2 °C target. When we estimated future mortality due to both temperature and population changes, the future mortality was found to be increased by 2.07 and 3.85 for the 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature increases, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. These increases can be attributed to a growing proportion of elderly population, who is more vulnerable to high temperatures. Meeting the target of 1.5 °C will be particularly beneficial for rapidly aging societies, including South Korea. PMID:29690535

Projection of Future Mortality Due to Temperature and Population Changes under Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

PubMed

Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Ejin; Lee, Woo-Seop; Chae, Yeora; Kim, Ho

2018-04-21

The Paris Agreement aims to limit the global temperature increase to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to even below 1.5 °C. Now, it should be asked what benefits are in pursuing these two targets. In this study, we assessed the temperature⁻mortality relationship using a distributed lag non-linear model in seven major cities of South Korea. Then, we projected future temperature-attributable mortality under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios for those cities. Mortality was projected to increase by 1.53 under the RCP 4.5 (temperature increase by 2.83 °C) and 3.3 under the RCP 8.5 (temperature increase by 5.10 °C) until the 2090s, as compared to baseline (1991⁻2015) mortality. However, future mortality is expected to increase by less than 1.13 and 1.26 if the 1.5 °C and 2 °C increase targets are met, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. Achieving the more ambitious target of 1.5 °C will reduce mortality by 12%, when compared to the 2 °C target. When we estimated future mortality due to both temperature and population changes, the future mortality was found to be increased by 2.07 and 3.85 for the 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature increases, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. These increases can be attributed to a growing proportion of elderly population, who is more vulnerable to high temperatures. Meeting the target of 1.5 °C will be particularly beneficial for rapidly aging societies, including South Korea.

Corruption kills: estimating the global impact of corruption on children deaths.

PubMed

Hanf, Matthieu; Van-Melle, Astrid; Fraisse, Florence; Roger, Amaury; Carme, Bernard; Nacher, Mathieu

2011-01-01

Information on the global risk factors of children mortality is crucial to guide global efforts to improve survival. Corruption has been previously shown to significantly impact on child mortality. However no recent quantification of its current impact is available. The impact of corruption was assessed through crude Pearson's correlation, univariate and multivariate linear models coupling national under-five mortality rates in 2008 to the national "perceived level of corruption" (CPI) and a large set of adjustment variables measured during the same period. The final multivariable model (adjusted R(2)= 0.89) included the following significant variables: percentage of people with improved sanitation (p.value<0.001), logarithm of total health expenditure (p.value = 0.006), Corruption Perception Index (p.value<0.001), presence of an arid climate on the national territory (p = 0.006), and the dependency ratio (p.value<0.001). A decrease in CPI of one point (i.e. a more important perceived corruption) was associated with an increase in the log of national under-five mortality rate of 0.0644. According to this result, it could be roughly hypothesized that more than 140000 annual children deaths could be indirectly attributed to corruption. Global response to children mortality must involve a necessary increase in funds available to develop water and sanitation access and purchase new methods for prevention, management, and treatment of major diseases drawing the global pattern of children deaths. However without paying regard to the anti-corruption mechanisms needed to ensure their proper use, it will also provide further opportunity for corruption. Policies and interventions supported by governments and donors must integrate initiatives that recognise how they are inter-related.

Corruption Kills: Estimating the Global Impact of Corruption on Children Deaths

PubMed Central

Hanf, Matthieu; Van-Melle, Astrid; Fraisse, Florence; Roger, Amaury; Carme, Bernard; Nacher, Mathieu

2011-01-01

Background Information on the global risk factors of children mortality is crucial to guide global efforts to improve survival. Corruption has been previously shown to significantly impact on child mortality. However no recent quantification of its current impact is available. Methods The impact of corruption was assessed through crude Pearson's correlation, univariate and multivariate linear models coupling national under-five mortality rates in 2008 to the national “perceived level of corruption” (CPI) and a large set of adjustment variables measured during the same period. Findings The final multivariable model (adjusted R2 = 0.89) included the following significant variables: percentage of people with improved sanitation (p.value<0.001), logarithm of total health expenditure (p.value = 0.006), Corruption Perception Index (p.value<0.001), presence of an arid climate on the national territory (p = 0.006), and the dependency ratio (p.value<0.001). A decrease in CPI of one point (i.e. a more important perceived corruption) was associated with an increase in the log of national under-five mortality rate of 0.0644. According to this result, it could be roughly hypothesized that more than 140000 annual children deaths could be indirectly attributed to corruption. Interpretations Global response to children mortality must involve a necessary increase in funds available to develop water and sanitation access and purchase new methods for prevention, management, and treatment of major diseases drawing the global pattern of children deaths. However without paying regard to the anti-corruption mechanisms needed to ensure their proper use, it will also provide further opportunity for corruption. Policies and interventions supported by governments and donors must integrate initiatives that recognise how they are inter-related. PMID:22073233

Global Burden of Childhood Tuberculosis.

PubMed

Jenkins, Helen E

2016-01-01

In 2015, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared tuberculosis (TB) to be responsible for more deaths than any other single infectious disease. The burden of TB among children has frequently been dismissed as relatively low with resulting deaths contributing very little to global under-five all-cause mortality, although without rigorous estimates of these statistics, the burden of childhood TB was, in reality, unknown. Recent work in the area has resulted in a WHO estimate of 1 million new cases of childhood TB in 2014 resulting in 136,000 deaths. Around 3% of these cases likely have multidrug-resistant TB and at least 40,000 are in HIV-infected children. TB is now thought to be a major or contributory cause of many deaths in children under five years old, despite not being recorded as such, and is likely in the top ten causes of global mortality in this age group. In particular, recent work has shown that TB is an under-lying cause of a substantial proportion of pneumonia deaths in TB-endemic countries. Childhood TB should be given higher priority: we need to identify children at greatest risk of TB disease and death and make more use of tools such as active case-finding and preventive therapy. TB is a preventable and treatable disease from which no child should die.

Network advocacy and the emergence of global attention to newborn survival.

PubMed

Shiffman, Jeremy

2016-04-01

Globally 2.9 million babies die each year before reaching 28 days of life. Over the past quarter century, neonatal mortality has declined at a slower pace than post-neonatal under-five mortality: in consequence newborns now comprise 44% of all deaths to children under five years. Despite high numbers of newborn deaths, global organizations and national governments paid little attention to the issue until 2000, and resources, while growing since then, remain inadequate. This study examines the factors behind these patterns of policy attention: the delayed emergence of attention, its sudden appearance in 2000, its growth thereafter, but the dearth of resources to date. Drawing on a framework on global health networks grounded in collective action theory, the study finds that a newborn survival network helped to shift perceptions about the problem's severity and tractability, contributing to the rise of global attention. Its efforts were facilitated by pressure on governments to achieve the child survival Millennium Development Goal and by growing awareness that the neonatal period constituted a growing percentage of under-five mortality, a fact the network publicized. The network's relatively recent emergence, its predominantly technical rather than political composition and strategies, and its inability to date to find a framing of the issue that has convinced national political leaders of the issue's urgency, in part explain the insufficiency of resources. However, since 2010 a number of non-health oriented inter-governmental organizations have begun to pay attention to the issue, and several countries with high neonatal mortality have created national plans, developments which augur well for the future. The study points to two broader implications concerning how neglected global health issues come to attract attention: priority emerges from a confluence of factors, rather than any single cause; and growth in priority may depend on the creation of a broader political coalition that extends beyond the largely technically oriented actors who may first press for attention to a problem. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2015; all rights reserved.

Temporary crate opening procedure affects immediate post-opening piglet mortality and sow behaviour.

PubMed

King, R L; Baxter, E M; Matheson, S M; Edwards, S A

2018-05-07

Producers are interested in utilising farrowing systems with reduced confinement to improve sow welfare. However, concerns of increased mortality may limit commercial uptake. Temporary confinement systems utilise a standard crate which is opened 3 to 7 days postpartum, providing protection for neonatal piglets at their most vulnerable age and later increased freedom of movement for sows. However, there is anecdotal evidence that piglet mortality increases immediately after the temporary crate is opened. The current study aims were to determine if piglet mortality increases post-opening, to trial different opening techniques to reduce post-opening piglet mortality and to identify how the different opening techniques influence sow behaviour. Three opening treatments were implemented across 416 sows: two involved opening crates individually within each farrowing house when each litter reached 7 days of age, in either the morning or afternoon (AM or PM), with a control of the standard method used on the farm to open all crates in each farrowing house simultaneously once the average litter age reached 7 days (ALL). Behavioural observations were performed on five sows from each treatment during the 6 h after crate opening, and during the same 6 h period on the previous and subsequent days. Across all treatments, piglet mortality was significantly higher in the post-opening than pre-opening period (P<0.0005). Between opening treatments, there were significant differences in piglet mortality during the 2 days after crate opening (P<0.05), whilst piglet mortality also tended to differ from crate opening until weaning (P=0.052), being highest in ALL and lowest in PM. Only sows in the PM treatment showed no increase in standing behaviour but did show an increased number of potentially dangerous posture changes after crate opening (P=0.01), which may be partly attributed to the temporal difference in observation periods. Sow behaviour only differed between AM and ALL on the day before crate opening, suggesting the AM treatment disrupted behaviour pre-opening. Sows in AM and PM treatments showed more sitting behaviour than ALL, and therefore may have been more alert. In conclusion, increases in piglet mortality after crate opening can be reduced by opening crates individually, more so in the afternoon. Sow habituation to disturbance before crate opening may have reduced post-opening piglet mortality, perhaps by reducing the difference in pre- and post-opening sow behaviour patterns.

Time Trends and Inequalities of Under-Five Mortality in Nepal: A Secondary Data Analysis of Four Demographic and Health Surveys between 1996 and 2011

PubMed Central

Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T.; Harsha Kumar, H. N.; Sathian, Brijesh

2013-01-01

Background Inequalities in progress towards achievement of Millennium Development Goal four (MDG-4) reflect unequal access to child health services. Objective To examine the time trends, socio-economic and regional inequalities of under-five mortality rate (U5MR) in Nepal. Methods We analyzed the data from complete birth histories of four Nepal Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHS) done in the years 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011. For each livebirth, we computed survival period from birth until either fifth birthday or the survey date. Using direct methods i.e. by constructing life tables, we calculated yearly U5MRs from 1991 to 2010. Projections were made for the years 2011 to 2015. For each NDHS, U5MRs were calculated according to child's sex, mother’s education, household wealth index, rural/urban residence, development regions and ecological zones. Inequalities were calculated as rate difference, rate ratio, population attributable risk and hazard ratio. Results Yearly U5MR (per 1000 live births) had decreased from 157.3 (95% CIs 178.0-138.9) in 1991 to 43.2 (95% CIs 59.1-31.5) in 2010 i.e. 114.1 reduction in absolute risk. Projected U5MR for the year 2015 was 54.33. U5MRs had decreased in absolute terms in all sub groups but relative inequalities had reduced for gender and rural/urban residence only. Wide inequalities existed by wealth and education and increased between 1996 and 2011. For lowest wealth quintile (as compared to highest quintile) hazard ratio (HR) increased from 1.37 (95% CIs 1.27, 1.49) to 2.54 ( 95% CIs 2.25, 2.86) and for mothers having no education (as compared to higher education) HR increased from 2.55 (95% CIs 1.95, 3.33) to 3.75 (95% CIs 3.17, 4.44). Changes in regional inequities were marginal and irregular. Conclusions Nepal is most likely to achieve MDG-4 but eductional and wealth inequalities may widen further. National health policies should address to reduce inequalities in U5MR through ‘inclusive policies'. PMID:24224010

Unintentional Child and Adolescent Drowning Mortality from 2000 to 2013 in 21 Countries: Analysis of the WHO Mortality Database.

PubMed

Wu, Yue; Huang, Yun; Schwebel, David C; Hu, Guoqing

2017-08-04

Limited research considers change over time for drowning mortality among individuals under 20 years of age, or the sub-cause (method) of those drownings. We assessed changes in under-20 drowning mortality from 2000 to 2013 among 21 countries. Age-standardized drowning mortality data were obtained through the World Health Organization (WHO) Mortality Database. Twenty of the 21 included countries experienced a reduction in under-20 drowning mortality rate between 2000 and 2013, with decreases ranging from -80 to -13%. Detailed analysis by drowning method presented large variations in the cause of drowning across countries. Data were missing due to unspecified methods in some countries but, when known, drowning in natural bodies of water was the primary cause of child and adolescent drowning in Poland (56-92%), Cuba (53-81%), Venezuela (43-56%), and Japan (39-60%), while drowning in swimming pools and bathtubs was common in the United States (26-37%) and Japan (28-39%), respectively. We recommend efforts to raise the quality of drowning death reporting systems and discuss prevention strategies that may reduce child and adolescent drowning risk, both in individual countries and globally.

Vitamin A for the treatment of children with measles--a systematic review.

PubMed

D'Souza, Rennie M; D'Souza, Ron

2002-12-01

Vitamin A deficiency is a recognized risk factor for severe measles. WHO and UNICEF have recommended vitamin A for the treatment of measles but there are children still dying from measles. A systematic review, including the use of meta-analysis was done of randomized controlled trials comparing vitamin A with placebo obtained from a systematic search of the medical literature to determine whether vitamin A prevents mortality and pneumonia-specific mortality in children with measles. We identified five trials conducted in Africa, four in hospitals and one in a community that met the inclusion criteria. There were 445 children aged 6 months to 13 years supplemented with vitamin A and 478 with placebo. There was a 39 per cent reduction in overall mortality when vitamin A was used for the treatment of measles but this was not statistically significant (relative risk 0.61; 95 per cent confidence interval 0.32-1.12). When stratified by dose, 200 000 IU of vitamin A given for 2 days was associated with a reduction in overall mortality (0.36, 0.14-0.82) and pneumonia-specific mortality (0.33, 0.08-0.92) in hospitalized children in areas with high case fatality. Greater reduction in mortality was observed in children under the age of 2 years (0.17, 0.03-0.61). On the other hand, a single dose of 200 000 IU of vitamin A was not associated with reduced mortality (1.25, 0.48-3.1). There were no trials comparing a single dose with two doses of vitamin A. There were not enough studies to separate out the individual effects of age, dose, formulation, hospitalization and case fatality in the study area. We conclude that 200 000 IU of vitamin A repeated on 2 days should be used for the treatment of measles as recommended by WHO in children admitted to hospitals in areas where the case fatality is high.

Urbanisation and child health in resource poor settings with special reference to under-five mortality in Africa.

PubMed

Garenne, Michel

2010-06-01

The health of children improved dramatically worldwide during the 20th century, although with major contrasts between developed and developing countries, and urban and rural areas. The quantitative evidence on urban child health from a broad historical and comparative perspective is briefly reviewed here. Before the sanitary revolution, urban mortality tended to be higher than rural mortality. However, after World War I, improvements in water, sanitation, hygiene, nutrition and child care resulted in lower urban child mortality in Europe. Despite a similar mortality decline, urban mortality in developing countries since World War II has been generally lower than rural mortality, probably because of better medical care, higher socio-economic status and better nutrition in urban areas. However, higher urban mortality has recently been seen in the slums of large cities in developing countries as a result of extreme poverty, family disintegration, lack of hygiene, sanitation and medical care, low nutritional status, emerging diseases (HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis) and other health hazards (environmental hazards, accidents, violence). These emerging threats need to be addressed by appropriate policies and programmes.

Impact Evaluation of Malaria Control Interventions on Morbidity and All-Cause Child Mortality in Rwanda, 2000–2010

PubMed Central

Eckert, Erin; Florey, Lia S.; Tongren, Jon Eric; Salgado, S. René; Rukundo, Alphonse; Habimana, Jean Pierre; Hakizimana, Emmanuel; Munguti, Kaendi; Umulisa, Noella; Mulindahabi, Monique; Karema, Corine

2017-01-01

Abstract. The impressive decline in child mortality that occurred in Rwanda from 1996–2000 to 2006–2010 coincided with a period of rapid increase of malaria control interventions such as indoor residual spraying (IRS); insecticide-treated net (ITN) distribution and use, and improved malaria case management. The impact of these interventions was examined through ecological correlation analysis, and robust decomposition analysis of contextual factors on all-cause child mortality. Child mortality fell 61% during the evaluation period and prevalence of severe anemia in children 6–23 months declined 71% between 2005 and 2010. These changes in malaria morbidity and mortality occurred concurrently with a substantial increase in vector control activities. ITN use increased among children under five, from 4% to 70%. The IRS program began in 2007 and covered 1.3 million people in the highest burden districts by 2010. At the same time, diagnosis and treatment with an effective antimalarial expanded nationally, and included making services available to children under the age of 5 at the community level. The percentage of children under 5 who sought care for a fever increased from 26% in 2000 to 48% in 2010. Multivariable models of the change in child mortality between 2000 and 2010 using nationally representative data reveal the importance of increasing ITN ownership in explaining the observed mortality declines. Taken as a whole, the evidence supports the conclusion that malaria control interventions contributed to the observed decline in child mortality in Rwanda from 2000 to 2010, even in a context of improving socioeconomic, maternal, and child health conditions. PMID:28990918

Assessing the Evidence for Maternal Pertussis Immunization: A Report From the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Symposium on Pertussis Infant Disease Burden in Low- and Lower-Middle-Income Countries

PubMed Central

Sobanjo-ter Meulen, Ajoke; Duclos, Philippe; McIntyre, Peter; Lewis, Kristen D. C.; Van Damme, Pierre; O'Brien, Katherine L.; Klugman, Keith P.

2016-01-01

Implementation of effective interventions has halved maternal and child mortality over the past 2 decades, but less progress has been made in reducing neonatal mortality. Almost 45% of under-5 global mortality now occurs in infants <1 month of age, with approximately 86% of neonatal deaths occurring in low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs). As an estimated 23% of neonatal deaths globally are due to infectious causes, maternal immunization (MI) is one intervention that may reduce mortality in the first few months of life, when direct protection often relies on passively transmitted maternal antibodies. Despite all countries including pertussis-containing vaccines in their routine childhood immunization schedules, supported through the Expanded Programme on Immunization, pertussis continues to circulate globally. Although based on limited robust epidemiologic data, current estimates derived from modeling implicate pertussis in 1% of under-5 mortality, with infants too young to be vaccinated at highest risk of death. Pertussis MI programs have proven effective in reducing infant pertussis mortality in high-income countries using tetanus-diphtheria-acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccines in their maternal and infant programs; however, these vaccines are cost-prohibitive for routine use in LMICs. The reach of antenatal care programs to deliver maternal pertussis vaccines, particularly with respect to infants at greatest risk of pertussis, needs to be further evaluated. Recognizing that decisions on the potential impact of pertussis MI in LMICs need, as a first step, robust contemporary mortality data for early infant pertussis, a symposium of global key experts was held. The symposium reviewed current evidence and identified knowledge gaps with respect to the infant pertussis disease burden in LMICs, and discussed proposed strategies to assess the potential impact of pertussis MI. PMID:27838664

Planting of neonicotinoid-coated corn raises honey bee mortality and sets back colony development.

PubMed

Samson-Robert, Olivier; Labrie, Geneviève; Chagnon, Madeleine; Fournier, Valérie

2017-01-01

Worldwide occurrences of honey bee colony losses have raised concerns about bee health and the sustainability of pollination-dependent crops. While multiple causal factors have been identified, seed coating with insecticides of the neonicotinoid family has been the focus of much discussion and research. Nonetheless, few studies have investigated the impacts of these insecticides under field conditions or in commercial beekeeping operations. Given that corn-seed coating constitutes the largest single use of neonicotinoid, our study compared honey bee mortality from commercial apiaries located in two different agricultural settings, i.e. corn-dominated areas and corn-free environments, during the corn planting season. Data was collected in 2012 and 2013 from 26 bee yards. Dead honey bees from five hives in each apiary were counted and collected, and samples were analyzed using a multi-residue LC-MS/MS method. Long-term effects on colony development were simulated based on a honey bee population dynamic model. Mortality survey showed that colonies located in a corn-dominated area had daily mortality counts 3.51 times those of colonies from corn crop-free sites. Chemical analyses revealed that honey bees were exposed to various agricultural pesticides during the corn planting season, but were primarily subjected to neonicotinoid compounds (54% of analysed samples contained clothianidin, and 31% contained both clothianidin and thiamethoxam). Performance development simulations performed on hive populations' show that increased mortality during the corn planting season sets back colony development and bears contributions to collapse risk but, most of all, reduces the effectiveness and value of colonies for pollination services. Our results also have implications for the numerous large-scale and worldwide-cultivated crops that currently rely on pre-emptive use of neonicotinoid seed treatments.

The Effects of an Integrated Community Case Management Strategy on the Appropriate Treatment of Children and Child Mortality in Kono District, Sierra Leone: A Program Evaluation.

PubMed

Ratnayake, Ruwan; Ratto, Jeffrey; Hardy, Colleen; Blanton, Curtis; Miller, Laura; Choi, Mary; Kpaleyea, John; Momoh, Pheabean; Barbera, Yolanda

2017-09-01

Integrated community case management (iCCM) aims to reduce child mortality in areas with poor access to health care. iCCM was implemented in 2009 in Kono district, Sierra Leone, a postconflict area with high under-five mortality rates (U5MRs). We evaluated iCCM's impact and effects on child health using cluster surveys in 2010 (midterm) and 2013 (endline) to compare indicators on child mortality, coverage of appropriate treatment, timely access to care, quality of care, and recognition of community health workers (CHWs). The sample size was powered to detect a 28% decline in U5MR. Clusters were selected proportional to population size. All households were sampled to measure mortality and systematic random sampling was used to measure coverage in a subset of households. We used program data to evaluate utilization and access; 5,257 (2010) and 3,649 (2013) households were surveyed. U5MR did not change significantly (4.54 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.47-5.60] to 3.95 [95% CI: 3.06-4.83] deaths per 1,000 per month ( P = 0.4)) though a relative change smaller than 28% could not be detected. CHWs were the first source of care for 52% (2010) and 50.9% (2013) of children. Coverage of appropriate treatment of fever by CHWs or peripheral health units increased from 45.5% [95% CI: 39.2-52.0] to 58.2% [95% CI: 50.5-65.5] ( P = 0.01); changes for diarrhea and pneumonia were not significant. The continued reliance on the CHW as the first source of care and improved coverage for the appropriate treatment of fever support iCCM's role in Kono district.

Planting of neonicotinoid-coated corn raises honey bee mortality and sets back colony development

PubMed Central

Samson-Robert, Olivier; Labrie, Geneviève; Chagnon, Madeleine

2017-01-01

Worldwide occurrences of honey bee colony losses have raised concerns about bee health and the sustainability of pollination-dependent crops. While multiple causal factors have been identified, seed coating with insecticides of the neonicotinoid family has been the focus of much discussion and research. Nonetheless, few studies have investigated the impacts of these insecticides under field conditions or in commercial beekeeping operations. Given that corn-seed coating constitutes the largest single use of neonicotinoid, our study compared honey bee mortality from commercial apiaries located in two different agricultural settings, i.e. corn-dominated areas and corn-free environments, during the corn planting season. Data was collected in 2012 and 2013 from 26 bee yards. Dead honey bees from five hives in each apiary were counted and collected, and samples were analyzed using a multi-residue LC-MS/MS method. Long-term effects on colony development were simulated based on a honey bee population dynamic model. Mortality survey showed that colonies located in a corn-dominated area had daily mortality counts 3.51 times those of colonies from corn crop-free sites. Chemical analyses revealed that honey bees were exposed to various agricultural pesticides during the corn planting season, but were primarily subjected to neonicotinoid compounds (54% of analysed samples contained clothianidin, and 31% contained both clothianidin and thiamethoxam). Performance development simulations performed on hive populations’ show that increased mortality during the corn planting season sets back colony development and bears contributions to collapse risk but, most of all, reduces the effectiveness and value of colonies for pollination services. Our results also have implications for the numerous large-scale and worldwide-cultivated crops that currently rely on pre-emptive use of neonicotinoid seed treatments. PMID:28828265

Brief report: How short is too short? An ultra-brief measure of the big-five personality domains implicates "agreeableness" as a risk for all-cause mortality.

PubMed

Chapman, Benjamin P; Elliot, Ari J

2017-08-01

Controversy exists over the use of brief Big Five scales in health studies. We investigated links between an ultra-brief measure, the Big Five Inventory-10, and mortality in the General Social Survey. The Agreeableness scale was associated with elevated mortality risk (hazard ratio = 1.26, p = .017). This effect was attributable to the reversed-scored item "Tends to find fault with others," so that greater fault-finding predicted lower mortality risk. The Conscientiousness scale approached meta-analytic estimates, which were not precise enough for significance. Those seeking Big Five measurement in health studies should be aware that the Big Five Inventory-10 may yield unusual results.

The emergence, growth and decline of political priority for newborn survival in Bolivia.

PubMed

Smith, Stephanie L

2014-12-01

Bolivia is expected to achieve United Nations Millennium Development Goal Four, reducing under-five child mortality by two-thirds between 2021 and 2025. However, progress on child mortality reduction masks a disproportionately slow decline in newborn deaths during the 2000s. Bolivia's neonatal mortality problem emerged on the policy agenda in the mid-1990s and grew through 2004 in relationship to political commitments to international development goals and the support of a strong policy network. Network status declined later in the decade. This study draws upon a framework for analysing determinants of political priority for global health initiatives to understand the trajectory of newborn survival policy in Bolivia from the early 1990s. A process-tracing case study methodology is used, informed by interviews with 26 individuals with close knowledge of newborn survival policy in the country and extensive document analysis. The case of newborn survival in Bolivia highlights the significance of political commitments to international development goals, health policy network characteristics (cohesion, composition, status and key actor support) and political transitions and instability in shaping agenda status, especially decline-an understudied phenomenon considering the transitory nature of policy priorities. The study suggests that the sustainability of issue attention therefore become a focal point for health policy networks and analyses. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2013; all rights reserved.

The role of social relationships in the link between olfactory dysfunction and mortality.

PubMed

Leschak, Carrianne J; Eisenberger, Naomi I

2018-01-01

Recent work suggests that olfactory dysfunction is a strong predictor of five-year mortality in older adults. Based on past work showing: 1) that olfactory dysfunction impairs social functioning and 2) that social ties are linked with mortality, the current work explored whether impairments in social life mediated the relationship between olfactory dysfunction and mortality. Additionally, based on work showing gender differences in the social consequences of olfactory dysfunction, gender was assessed as a potential moderator of this association. Social network size mediated the olfactory-mortality link for females. To probe what feature of social networks was driving this effect, we investigated two subcomponents of social life: emotional closeness (e.g., perceived social support, loneliness) and physical closeness (e.g., physical contact, in-person socializing with others). Physical closeness significantly mediated the olfactory-mortality link for females, even after controlling for social network size. Emotional closeness did not mediate this link. Possible mechanisms underlying this relationship are discussed.

"Safe motherhood", family planning and maternal mortality: an Indonesian case study.

PubMed

Smyth, I

1994-06-01

This case study in Indonesia examined some assumptions about the outcome of family planning services. Safe Motherhood programs were flawed, because of the misplaced emphasis on family planning as a strategy to reduce maternal mortality. Family planning programs reduce the exposure to the risks of child-bearing, but they do not reduce the actual risks. Reproductive health should not be linked so tightly to demographic concerns and family planning. That cost saving occurs from family planning is insufficient to justify inattention to the needs of high quality obstetric care. Family planning should be viewed as just one component of a larger, comprehensive set of measures designed to assure the health of women at all stages in the life cycle: as citizens and workers, as mothers, and as adolescents. Interventions must begin before childbearing and include growth in economic, educational, and health opportunities. The aim of reducing maternal mortality by 50% by the year 2000 was included in Indonesia's five-year development plan: Repelita V. The example of Indonesia was important, because of its achievements in reducing poverty and increasing the standard of living of the population, and because of its large population size. Estimated maternal mortality in Indonesia was 450/100,000 live births in 1989, up from 390/100,000 in 1982. There was evidence from other studies that maternal mortality has increased. Criticism has been directed to the misplaced emphasis on family planning and the top-down delivery of professional services for ignoring local health-enhancing practices and the role of families, fathers, and communities as health providers. The realized cost effectiveness of family planning is an abstraction. Fertility has declined with an increase in family planning from 5.6 children to 3.0 children in 1990, but, for example, Bali has both high levels of contraception use and high maternal mortality. Integrated programs and the high risk approach have not been particularly successful.

Lung cancer mortality and exposure to synthetic metalworking fluid and biocides: controlling for the healthy worker survivor effect.

PubMed

Garcia, Erika; Picciotto, Sally; Neophytou, Andreas M; Bradshaw, Patrick T; Balmes, John R; Eisen, Ellen A

2018-05-09

Synthetic metalworking fluids (MWFs), widely used to cool and lubricate industrial machining and grinding operations, have been linked with increased risk of several cancers. Estimates of their relation with lung cancer, however, are inconsistent. Controlling for the healthy worker survivor effect, we examined the relations between lung cancer mortality and exposure to synthetic MWF, as well as to biocides added to water-based fluids to control microbial growth, in a cohort of autoworkers. Biocides served as a marker for endotoxin, which has reported antitumour effects, and were hypothesised to be the reason prior studies found reduced lung cancer risk associated with exposure to synthetic fluids. Using the parametric g-formula, we estimated risk ratios (RRs) comparing cumulative lung cancer mortality under no intervention with what would have occurred under hypothetical interventions reducing exposure to zero (ie, a ban) separately for two exposures: synthetic fluids and biocides. We also specified an intervention on synthetic MWF and biocides simultaneously to estimate joint effects. Under a synthetic MWF ban, we observed decreased lung cancer mortality risk at age 86, RR=0.96 (0.91-1.01), but when we also intervened to ban biocides, the RR increased to 1.03 (0.95-1.11). A biocide-only ban increased lung cancer mortality (RR=1.07 (1.00-1.16)), with slightly larger RR in younger ages. Findings suggest a modest positive association for synthetic MWF with lung cancer mortality, contrary to the negative associations reported in earlier studies. Biocide exposure, however, was inversely associated with risk of lung cancer mortality. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Effects of dietary L-carnitine and coenzyme Q10 supplementation on performance and ascites mortality of broilers.

PubMed

Geng, Ailian; Guo, Yuming; Yuan, Jianmin

2004-12-01

The study was conducted to determine the effects of dietary L-carnitine and coenzyme Q10 (CoQ10) supplementation on growth performance and ascites mortality of broilers. A 3 x 3 factorial arrangement was employed with three levels (0, 75 and 150 mg/kg) of L-carnitine and three levels of CoQ10 (0, 20 and 40 mg/kg) supplementation during the experiment. Five hundred and forty one-day-old Arbor Acre male broiler chicks were randomly allocated into nine groups with six replicates each. All birds were fed with the basal diets from day 1 to 7 and changed to the experimental diets from day 8. During day 15 to 21 all the birds were exposed to low ambient temperature (15-18 degrees C) to induce ascites. The results showed that under this condition, growth performance of broilers were not significantly affected by CoQ10 or L-carnitine + CoQ10 supplementation during week 0-3 and 0-6, but body weight gain (BWG) of broilers was significantly reduced by 150 mg/ kg L-carnitine during week 0-6. Packed cell volume (PCV) of broilers was significantly decreased by L-carnitine and L-carnitine + CoQ10 supplementation (P < 0.05). Erythrocyte osmotic fragility (EOF), ascites heart index (AHI) and ascites mortality of broilers were significantly decreased by L-carnitine, CoQ10 and L-carnitine + CoQ10 supplementation. Though no significant changes were observed in total antioxidative capability (T-AOC), total superoxide dismutase (T-SOD) was increased by L-carnitine, CoQ10 and L-carnitine + CoQ10 supplementation (P < 0.05). Malonaldehyde (MDA) content was significantly decreased by CoQ10 and L-carnitine + CoQ10 supplementation. The results indicate that dietary L-carnitine and CoQ10 supplementation reduce ascites mortality of broilers; the reason may be partially associated with their antioxidative effects.

Correlation analysis of omega-3 fatty acids and mortality of sepsis and sepsis-induced ARDS in adults: data from previous randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Chen, HuaiSheng; Wang, Su; Zhao, Ying; Luo, YuTian; Tong, HuaSheng; Su, Lei

2018-05-31

This study aimed to investigate the possible effect of omega-3 fatty acids on reducing the mortality of sepsis and sepsis-induced acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in adults. Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) database, WangFang database, and Chinese BioMedical Literature Database from their inception to March 6, 2017, were searched using systematic review researching methods. Five factors were analyzed to investigate the correlation between omega-3 fatty acids (either parenteral or enteral supplementation) and mortality rate. Forty randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were initially included, but only 25 of them assessed mortality. Of these RCTs, nine used enteral nutrition (EN) and 16 used parenteral nutrition (PN). The total mortality rate in the omega-3 fatty acid group was lower than that in the control group. However, the odds ratio (OR) value was not significantly different in the EN or PN subgroup. Eighteen RCTs including 1790 patients with similar severity of sepsis and ARDS were also analyzed. The OR value was not significantly different in the EN or PN subgroup. Omega-3 fatty acids did not show positive effect on improving mortality of sepsis-induced ARDS (p = 0.39). But in EN subgroup, omega-3 fatty acids treatment seemed to have some benefits in reducing mortality rate (p = 0.04). In the RCTs including similar baseline patients, partial correlation analysis found that the concentration ratio of n-6 to n-3 fatty acids had positive correlation with reduction of mortality (RM) (γ = 0.60, P = 0.02), whereas the total number of each RCT had negative correlation with RM (γ = - 0.54, P = 0.05). This review found that omega-3 fatty acid supplementation could reduce the mortality rate of sepsis and sepsis-induced ARDS. However, further investigation based on suitable concentrations and indications is needed to support the findings.

Association of BCG, DTP, and measles containing vaccines with childhood mortality: systematic review.

PubMed

Higgins, Julian P T; Soares-Weiser, Karla; López-López, José A; Kakourou, Artemisia; Chaplin, Katherine; Christensen, Hannah; Martin, Natasha K; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Reingold, Arthur L

2016-10-13

 To evaluate the effects on non-specific and all cause mortality, in children under 5, of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP), and standard titre measles containing vaccines (MCV); to examine internal validity of the studies; and to examine any modifying effects of sex, age, vaccine sequence, and co-administration of vitamin A.  Systematic review, including assessment of risk of bias, and meta-analyses of similar studies.  Clinical trials, cohort studies, and case-control studies of the effects on mortality of BCG, whole cell DTP, and standard titre MCV in children under 5.  Searches of Medline, Embase, Global Index Medicus, and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, supplemented by contact with experts in the field. To avoid overlap in children studied across the included articles, findings from non-overlapping birth cohorts were identified.  Results from 34 birth cohorts were identified. Most evidence was from observational studies, with some from short term clinical trials. Most studies reported on all cause (rather than non-specific) mortality. Receipt of BCG vaccine was associated with a reduction in all cause mortality: the average relative risks were 0.70 (95% confidence interval 0.49 to 1.01) from five clinical trials and 0.47 (0.32 to 0.69) from nine observational studies at high risk of bias. Receipt of DTP (almost always with oral polio vaccine) was associated with a possible increase in all cause mortality on average (relative risk 1.38, 0.92 to 2.08) from 10 studies at high risk of bias; this effect seemed stronger in girls than in boys. Receipt of standard titre MCV was associated with a reduction in all cause mortality (relative risks 0.74 (0.51 to 1.07) from four clinical trials and 0.51 (0.42 to 0.63) from 18 observational studies at high risk of bias); this effect seemed stronger in girls than in boys. Seven observational studies, assessed as being at high risk of bias, have compared sequences of vaccines; results of a subset of these suggest that administering DTP with or after MCV may be associated with higher mortality than administering it before MCV.  Evidence suggests that receipt of BCG and MCV reduce overall mortality by more than would be expected through their effects on the diseases they prevent, and receipt of DTP may be associated with an increase in all cause mortality. Although efforts should be made to ensure that all children are immunised on schedule with BCG, DTP, and MCV, randomised trials are needed to compare the effects of different sequences. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The potential for reducing differences in life expectancy between educational groups in five European countries: the effects of obesity, physical inactivity and smoking.

PubMed

Mäki, Netta E; Martikainen, Pekka T; Eikemo, Terje; Menvielle, Gwenn; Lundberg, Olle; Ostergren, Olof; Mackenbach, Johan P

2014-07-01

This study assesses the effects of obesity, physical inactivity and smoking on life expectancy (LE) differences between educational groups in five European countries in the early 2000s. We estimate the contribution of risk factors on LE differences between educational groups using the observed risk factor distributions and under a hypothetically more optimal risk factor distribution. Data on risk factor prevalence were obtained from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe study, and data on mortality from census-linked data sets for the age between 50 and 79 according to sex and education. Substantial differences in LE of up to 2.8 years emerged between men with a low and a high level of education in Denmark, Austria and France, and smaller differences among men in Italy and Spain. The educational differences in LE were not as large among women. The largest potential for reducing educational differences was in Denmark (25% among men and 41% among women) and Italy (14% among men). The magnitude of the effect of unhealthy behaviours on educational differences in LE varied between countries. LE among those with a low or medium level of education could increase in some European countries if the behavioural risk factor distributions were similar to those observed among the highly educated. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Breech delivery in very preterm and very low birthweight infants in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Gravenhorst, J B; Schreuder, A M; Veen, S; Brand, R; Verloove-Vanhorick, S P; Verweij, R A; van Zeben-van der Aa, D M; Ens-Dokkum, M H

1993-05-01

To study the relation between various perinatal factors and the sequelae of very preterm birth, applying logistic regression analysis. In a nationwide collaborative study in the Netherlands, perinatal and follow up data were collected on 899 liveborn singleton nonmalformed infants with gestational age less than 32 weeks or birthweight less than 1500 g born in 1983. Neonatal mortality rate and total handicap rates (minor and major) in surviving children at two years and five years of age. Comparing breech with vertex presentation, the odds ratio for neonatal mortality (adjusted for duration of pregnancy, birthweight, maternal hypertension and prolonged rupture of membranes) is 1.6 (P < 0.05). Comparing abdominal versus vaginal delivery, the odds ratio indicates equal risks. When breech and vertex presentation are analysed separately it appears that breech presenting infants have a significantly lower mortality risk when born by caesarean section compared with vaginal delivery. However, comparing abdominal versus vaginal delivery in breech presentation, the odds ratio for handicap at five years (0.9) is not significantly different from 1. The data presented suggest a reduced neonatal mortality rate in breech presenting infants born by caesarean section but because of the observational design of the study the statistical analysis described only identifies a possible trend and cannot prove the issue.

A population-based study of premature mortality in relation to neighbourhood density of alcohol sales and cheque cashing outlets in Toronto, Canada.

PubMed

Matheson, Flora I; Creatore, Maria Isabella; Gozdyra, Piotr; Park, Alison L; Ray, Joel G

2014-12-17

Alcohol overuse and poverty, each associated with premature death, often exist within disadvantaged neighbourhoods. Cheque cashing places (CCPs) may be opportunistically placed in disadvantaged neighbourhoods, where customers abound. We explored whether neighbourhood density of CCPs and alcohol outlets are each related to premature mortality among adults. Retrospective population-based study. 140 neighbourhoods in Toronto, Ontario, 2005-2009. Adults aged 20-59 years. Our primary outcome was premature all-cause mortality among adults aged 20-59 years. Across neighbourhoods we explored neighbourhood density, in km(2), of CCPs and alcohol outlets, and the relation of each to premature mortality. Poisson regression provided adjusted relative risks (aRRs) and 95% CIs, adjusting for material deprivation quintile (Q), crime Q and number of banks. Intentional self-harm, accidental poisoning and liver disease were among the top five causes of premature death among males aged 20-59 years. The overall premature mortality rate was 96.3/10,000 males and 55.9/10,000 females. Comparing the highest versus lowest CCP density Q, the aRR for death was 1.25 (95% CI 1.15 to 1.36) among males and 1.11 (95% CI 0.99 to 1.24) among females. The corresponding aRR comparing the highest Q versus lowest Q alcohol outlet density in relation to premature mortality was 1.36 (95% CI 1.25 to 1.48) for males and 1.11 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.24) for females. The pattern of the relation between either CCPs or alcohol outlet density and premature mortality was typically J shaped. There is a J-shaped relation between CCP or alcohol outlet density and premature mortality, even on controlling for conventional measures of poverty. Formal banking and alcohol reduction strategies might be added to health promotion policies aimed at reducing premature mortality in highly affected neighbourhoods. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Perinatal mortality among infants born during health user-fees (Cash & Carry) and the national health insurance scheme (NHIS) eras in Ghana: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Ibrahim, Abdallah; Maya, Ernest T; Donkor, Ernestina; Agyepong, Irene A; Adanu, Richard M

2016-12-08

This research determined the rates of perinatal mortality among infants delivered under Ghana's national health insurance scheme (NHIS) compared to infants delivered under the previous "Cash and Carry" system in Northern Region, especially as the country takes stock of its progress toward meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) 4 and 5. The labor and maternity wards delivery records of infants delivered before and after the implementation of the NHIS in Northern Region were examined. Records of available daily deliveries during the two health systems were extracted. Fisher's exact tests of non-random association were used to examine the bivariate association between categorical independent variables and perinatal mortality. On average, 8% of infants delivered during the health user-fee (Cash & Carry) died compared to about 4% infant deaths during the NHIS delivery fee exemption period in Northern Region, Ghana. There were no remarkable difference in the rate of infant deaths among mothers in almost all age categories in both the Cash and Carry and the NHIS periods except in mothers age 35 years and older. Infants born to multiparous mothers were significantly more likely to die than those born to first time mothers. There were more twin deaths during the Cash and Carry system (p = 0.001) compared to the NHIS system. Deliveries by caesarean section increased from an average of 14% in the "Cash and Carry" era to an average of 20% in the NHIS era. The overall rate of perinatal mortality declined by half (50%) in infants born during the NHIS era compared to the Cash and Carry era. However, caesarean deliveries increased during the NHIS era. These findings suggest that pregnant women in the Northern Region of Ghana were able to access the opportunity to utilize the NHIS for antenatal visits and possibly utilized skilled care at delivery at no cost or very minimal cost to them, which therefore improved Ghana's progress towards meeting the MDG 4, (reducing under-five deaths by two-thirds).

Costs of implementing integrated community case management (iCCM) in six African countries: implications for sustainability.

PubMed

Daviaud, Emmanuelle; Besada, Donnela; Leon, Natalie; Rohde, Sarah; Sanders, David; Oliphant, Nicholas; Doherty, Tanya

2017-06-01

Sub-Saharan Africa still reports the highest rates of under-five mortality. Low cost, high impact interventions exist, however poor access remains a challenge. Integrated community case management (iCCM) was introduced to improve access to essential services for children 2-59 months through diagnosis, treatment and referral services by community health workers for malaria, pneumonia and diarrhea. This paper presents the results of an economic analysis of iCCM implementation in regions supported by UNICEF in six countries and assesses country-level scale-up implications. The paper focuses on costs to provider (health system and donors) to inform planning and budgeting, and does not cover cost-effectiveness. The analysis combines annualised set-up costs and 1 year implementation costs to calculate incremental economic and financial costs per treatment from a provider perspective. Affordability is assessed by calculating the per capita financial cost of the program as a percentage of the public health expenditure per capita. Time and financial implications of a 30% increase in utilization were modeled. Country scale-up is modeled for all children under 5 in rural areas. Utilization of iCCM services varied from 0.05 treatment/y/under-five in Ethiopia to over 1 in Niger. There were between 10 and 603 treatments/community health worker (CHW)/y. Consultation cost represented between 93% and 22% of economic costs per treatment influenced by the level of utilization. Weighted economic cost per treatment ranged from US$ 13 (2015 USD) in Ghana to US$ 2 in Malawi. CHWs spent from 1 to 9 hours a week on iCCM. A 30% increase in utilization would add up to 2 hours a week, but reduce cost per treatment (by 20% in countries with low utilization). Country scale up would amount to under US$ 0.8 per capita total population (US$ 0.06-US$0.74), between 0.5% and 2% of public health expenditure per capita but 8% in Niger. iCCM addresses unmet needs and impacts on under 5 mortality. An economic cost of under US$ 1/capita/y represents a sound investment. Utilization remains low however, and strategies must be developed as a priority to improve demand. Continued donor support is required to sustain iCCM services and strengthen its integration within national health systems.

How do the approaches to accountability compare for charities working in international development?

PubMed

Kirsch, David

2014-09-01

Approaches to accountability vary between charities working to reduce under-five mortality in underdeveloped countries, and healthcare workers and facilities in Canada. Comparison reveals key differences, similarities and trade-offs. For example, while health professionals are governed by legislation and healthcare facilities have a de facto obligation to be accredited, charities and other international organizations are not subject to mandatory international laws or guidelines or to de facto international standards. Charities have policy goals similar to those found in the Canadian substudies, including access, quality, cost control, cost-effectiveness and customer satisfaction. However, the relative absence of external policy tools means that these goals may not be realized. Accountability can be beneficial, but too much or the wrong kind of accountability can divert resources and diminish returns. Copyright © 2014 Longwoods Publishing.

Drivers and mechanisms of tree mortality in moist tropical forests.

PubMed

McDowell, Nate; Allen, Craig D; Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina; Brando, Paulo; Brienen, Roel; Chambers, Jeff; Christoffersen, Brad; Davies, Stuart; Doughty, Chris; Duque, Alvaro; Espirito-Santo, Fernando; Fisher, Rosie; Fontes, Clarissa G; Galbraith, David; Goodsman, Devin; Grossiord, Charlotte; Hartmann, Henrik; Holm, Jennifer; Johnson, Daniel J; Kassim, Abd Rahman; Keller, Michael; Koven, Charlie; Kueppers, Lara; Kumagai, Tomo'omi; Malhi, Yadvinder; McMahon, Sean M; Mencuccini, Maurizio; Meir, Patrick; Moorcroft, Paul; Muller-Landau, Helene C; Phillips, Oliver L; Powell, Thomas; Sierra, Carlos A; Sperry, John; Warren, Jeff; Xu, Chonggang; Xu, Xiangtao

2018-02-16

Tree mortality rates appear to be increasing in moist tropical forests (MTFs) with significant carbon cycle consequences. Here, we review the state of knowledge regarding MTF tree mortality, create a conceptual framework with testable hypotheses regarding the drivers, mechanisms and interactions that may underlie increasing MTF mortality rates, and identify the next steps for improved understanding and reduced prediction. Increasing mortality rates are associated with rising temperature and vapor pressure deficit, liana abundance, drought, wind events, fire and, possibly, CO 2 fertilization-induced increases in stand thinning or acceleration of trees reaching larger, more vulnerable heights. The majority of these mortality drivers may kill trees in part through carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. The relative importance of each driver is unknown. High species diversity may buffer MTFs against large-scale mortality events, but recent and expected trends in mortality drivers give reason for concern regarding increasing mortality within MTFs. Models of tropical tree mortality are advancing the representation of hydraulics, carbon and demography, but require more empirical knowledge regarding the most common drivers and their subsequent mechanisms. We outline critical datasets and model developments required to test hypotheses regarding the underlying causes of increasing MTF mortality rates, and improve prediction of future mortality under climate change. No claim to original US government works New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Key strategies to further reduce stunting in Southeast Asia: lessons from the ASEAN countries workshop.

PubMed

Bloem, Martin W; de Pee, Saskia; Hop, Le Thi; Khan, Nguyen Cong; Laillou, Arnaud; Minarto; Moench-Pfanner, Regina; Soekarjo, Damayanti; Soekirman; Solon, J Antonio; Theary, Chan; Wasantwisut, Emorn

2013-06-01

To further reduce stunting in Southeast Asia, a rapidly changing region, its main causes need to be identified. Assess the relationship between different causes of stunting and stunting prevalence over time in Southeast Asia. Review trends in mortality, stunting, economic development, and access to nutritious foods over time and among different subgroups in Southeast Asian countries. Between 1990-2011, mortality among under-five children declined from 69/1,000 to 29/1,000 live births. Although disease reduction, one of two direct causes of stunting, has played an important role which should be maintained, improvement in meeting nutrient requirements, the other direct cause, is necessary to reduce stunting further. This requires dietary diversity, which is affected by rapidly changing factors: economic development; urbanization, giving greater access to larger variety of foods, including processed and fortified foods; parental education; and modernizing food systems, with increased distance between food producers and consumers. Wealthier consumers are increasingly able to access a more nutritious diet, while poorer consumers need support to improve access, and may also still need better hygiene and sanitation. In order to accelerate stunting reduction in Southeast Asia, availability and access to nutritious foods should be increased by collaboration between private and public sectors, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) can play a facilitating role. The private sector can produce and market nutritious foods, while the public sector sets standards, promotes healthy food choices, and ensures access to nutritious foods for the poorest, e.g, through social safety net programs.

Popular intoxicants: what lessons can be learned from the last 40 years of alcohol and cannabis regulation?

PubMed

Weissenborn, Ruth; Nutt, David J

2012-02-01

In this paper we discuss the relative physical, psychological and social harms of the two most frequently used intoxicant drugs in the UK, namely cannabis and alcohol. Over the past 40 years, the use of both drugs has risen significantly with differential consequences. It is argued that increased policing of cannabis use under the current drug classification system will lead to increased criminalization of young people, but is unlikely to significantly reduce the rates of schizophrenia and psychosis. In comparison, increases in alcohol drinking are related to significant increases in liver cirrhosis hospital admissions and mortality, at a time when mortality rates from other major causes are on the decline. A recent expert-led comparison of the health and social harms to the user and to others caused by the most commonly used drugs in the UK showed alcohol to be more than twice as harmful as cannabis to users, and five times as harmful as cannabis to others. The findings underline the need for a coherent, evidence-based drugs policy that enables individuals to make informed decisions about the consequences of their drug use.

ASSESSMENT OF THE RATES OF INJURY AND MORTALITY IN WATERFOWL CAPTURED WITH FIVE METHODS OF CAPTURE AND TECHNIQUES FOR MINIMIZING RISKS.

PubMed

O'Brien, Michelle F; Lee, Rebecca; Cromie, Ruth; Brown, Martin J

2016-04-01

Swan pipes, duck decoys, cage traps, cannon netting, and roundups are widely used to capture waterfowl in order to monitor populations. These methods are often regulated in countries with national ringing or banding programs and are considered to be safe, and thus justifiable given the benefits to conservation. However, few published studies have addressed how frequently injuries and mortalities occur, or the nature of any injuries. In the present study, rates of mortality and injury during captures with the use of these methods carried out by the Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust as part of conservation programs were assessed. The total rate of injury (including mild dermal abrasions) was 0.42% across all species groups, whereas total mortality was 0.1% across all capture methods. Incidence of injury varied among species groups (ducks, geese, swans, and rails), with some, for example, dabbling ducks, at greater risk than others. We also describe techniques used before, during, and after a capture to reduce stress and injury in captured waterfowl. Projects using these or other capture methods should monitor and publish their performance to allow sharing of experience and to reduce risks further.

Population-based study on infant mortality.

PubMed

Lima, Jaqueline Costa; Mingarelli, Alexandre Marchezoni; Segri, Neuber José; Zavala, Arturo Alejandro Zavala; Takano, Olga Akiko

2017-03-01

Although Brazil has reduced social, economic and health indicators disparities in the last decade, intra- and inter-regional differences in child mortality rates (CMR) persist in regions such as the state capital of Mato Grosso. This population-based study aimed to investigate factors associated with child mortality in five cohorts of live births (LB) of mothers living in Cuiabá (MT), Brazil, 2006-2010, through probabilistic linkage in 47,018 LB. We used hierarchical logistic regression analysis. Of the 617 child deaths, 48% occurred in the early neonatal period. CMR ranged from 14.6 to 12.0 deaths per thousand LB. The following remained independently associated with death: mothers without companion (OR = 1.32); low number of prenatal consultations (OR = 1.65); low birthweight (OR = 4.83); prematurity (OR = 3.05); Apgar ≤ 7 at the first minute (OR = 3.19); Apgar ≤ 7 at the fifth minute (OR = 4.95); congenital malformations (OR = 14.91) and male gender (OR = 1.26). CMR has declined in Cuiabá, however, there is need to guide public healthcare policies in the prenatal and perinatal period to reduce early neonatal mortality and further studies to identify the causes of preventable deaths.

Governance matters: an ecological association between governance and child mortality

PubMed Central

Lin, Ro-Ting; Chien, Lung-Chang; Chen, Ya-Mei; Chan, Chang-Chuan

2014-01-01

Background Governance of a country may have widespread effects on the health of its population, yet little is known about the effect of governance on child mortality in a country that is undergoing urbanization, economic development, and disease control. Methods We obtained indicators of six dimensions of governance (perceptions of voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption) and national under-5 mortality rates for 149 countries between 1996 and 2010. We applied a semi-parametric generalized additive mixed model to examine associations after controlling for the effects of development factors (urbanization level and economy), disease control factors (hygienic conditions and vaccination rates), health expenditures, air quality, and time. Results Governance, development, and disease control showed clear inverse relations with the under-5 mortality rate (p<0.001). Per unit increases in governance, development, and disease control factors, the child mortality rate had a 0.901-, 0.823-, and 0.922-fold decrease, respectively, at fixed levels of the other two factors. Conclusions In the effort to reduce the global under-5 mortality rate, addressing a country's need for better governance is as important as improvements in development and disease control. PMID:24711600

Short term association between ambient air pollution and mortality and modification by temperature in five Indian cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dholakia, Hem H.; Bhadra, Dhiman; Garg, Amit

2014-12-01

Indian cities are among the most polluted areas globally, yet assessments of short term mortality impacts due to pollution have been limited. Furthermore, studies examining temperature - pollution interactions on mortality are largely absent. Addressing this gap remains important in providing research evidence to better link health outcomes and air quality standards for India. Daily all-cause mortality, temperature, humidity and particulate matter less than 10 microns (PM10) data were collected for five cities - Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Mumbai and Shimla spanning 2005-2012. Poisson regression models were developed to study short term impacts of PM10 as well as temperature - pollution interactions on daily all-cause mortality. We find that excess risk of mortality associated with a 10 μg/m3 PM10 increase is highest for Shimla (1.36%, 95% CI = -0.38%-3.1%) and the least for Ahmedabad (0.16%, 95% CI = -0.31%-0.62%). The corresponding values for Bangalore, Hyderabad and Mumbai are 0.22% (-0.04%-0.49%), 0.85% (0.06%-1.63%) and 0.2% (0.1%-0.3%) respectively. The relative health benefits of reducing pollution are higher for cleaner cities (Shimla) as opposed to dirtier cities (Mumbai). Overall we find that temperature and pollution interactions do not significantly impact mortality for the cities studied. This is one of the first multi-city studies that assess heterogeneity of air pollution impacts and possible modification due to temperature in Indian cities that are spread across climatic regions and topographies. Our findings highlight the need for pursuing stringent pollution control policies in Indian cities to minimize health impacts.

Endotoxemia and mortality prediction in ICU and other settings: underlying risk and co-detection of gram negative bacteremia are confounders

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Introduction The interdependence between endotoxemia, gram negative (GN) bacteremia and mortality has been extensively studied. Underlying patient risk and GN bacteremia types are possible confounders of the relationship. Methods Published studies with ≥10 patients in either ICU or non-ICU settings, endotoxemia detection by limulus assay, reporting mortality proportions and ≥1 GN bacteremia were included. Summary odds ratios (OR) for mortality were derived across all studies by meta-analysis for the following contrasts: sub-groups with either endotoxemia (group three), GN bacteremia (group two) or both (group one) each versus the group with neither detected (group four; reference group). The mortality proportion for group four is the proxy measure of study level risk within L'Abbé plots. Results Thirty-five studies were found. Among nine studies in an ICU setting, the OR for mortality was borderline (OR <2) or non-significantly increased for groups two (GN bacteremia alone) and three (endotoxemia alone) and patient group one (GN bacteremia and endotoxemia co-detected) each versus patient group four (neither endotoxemia nor GN bacteremia detected). The ORs were markedly higher for group one versus group four (OR 6.9; 95% confidence interval (CI), 4.4 -to 11.0 when derived from non-ICU studies. The distributions of Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Escherichia coli bacteremias among groups one versus two are significantly unequal. Conclusions The co-detection of GN bacteremia and endotoxemia is predictive of increased mortality risk versus the detection of neither but only in studies undertaken in a non-ICU setting. Variation in GN bacteremia species types and underlying risk are likely unrecognized confounders in the individual studies. PMID:22871090

Complementary Feeding Knowledge, Practices, and Dietary Diversity among Mothers of Under-Five Children in an Urban Community in Lagos State, Nigeria

PubMed Central

Olatona, Foluke Adenike; Adenihun, Jesupelumi Oreoluwa; Aderibigbe, Sunday Adedeji; Adeniyi, Oluwafunmilayo Funke

2017-01-01

Background and Objectives: Inappropriate complementary feeding is a major cause of child malnutrition and death. This study determined the complementary feeding knowledge, practices, minimum dietary diversity, and acceptable diet among mothers of under-five children in an urban Local Government Area of Lagos State, Southwest Nigeria. Methods: This descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted in Eti-Osa area of Lagos State, Nigeria. Multi-stage sampling technique was employed to select 355 mothers and infants. Data was collected using a pre-tested interviewer administered questionnaire and 24-hour diet recall was used to assess dietary diversity. Data was analyzed using Epi-Info. Results: Knowledge of complementary feeding was low (14.9%) and was associated with older mothers’ age, being married, and higher level of education. The prevalence of timely initiation of complementary feeding (47.9%), dietary diversity (16.0%) and minimum acceptable diet for children between 6 and 9 months (16%) were low. Overall, appropriate complementary feeding practice was low (47.0%) and associated with higher level of mothers’ education and occupation. Conclusions and Global Health Implications: Complementary feeding knowledge and practices were poor among mothers of under-5 especially the non-literate. Reduction of child malnutrition through appropriate complementary feeding remains an important global health goal. Complementary feeding education targeting behavioral change especially among young, single and uneducated mothers in developing countries is important to reduce child morbidity and mortality. PMID:28798893

Health and poverty: past, present and prospects for the future.

PubMed

Najman, J M

1993-01-01

Periodically the results of class comparisons in mortality rates have been reported. These reports have permitted comparisons since the earlier part of this century to the present period. The data thus available enables us to make some tentative predictions about the likely magnitude of class inequalities in mortality in the future. We consequently argue that: the concept of class should be abandoned in favour of a more direct measure of economic inequality which emphasises those living in poverty. despite overall declines in mortality for all socioeconomic groups, in the most recent period there has been an increase in the relative mortality disadvantage in some countries. this increase in mortality disadvantage is paralleled by an increase in the proportion of people, particularly children, living in poverty. Five groups constitute the bulk of those living in poverty and, of these, three (single mothers, the aged and the disabled) are likely to increase in numbers in the future, producing a likely increase in class-related mortality inequalities. Reducing these inequalities will depend upon welfare and education initiatives more than on any changes likely to be produced by the health system.

Measles mortality reduction contributes substantially to reduction of all cause mortality among children less than five years of age, 1990-2008.

PubMed

van den Ent, Maya M V X; Brown, David W; Hoekstra, Edward J; Christie, Athalia; Cochi, Stephen L

2011-07-01

The Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) to reduce mortality in children aged <5 years by two-thirds from 1990 to 2015 has made substantial progress. We describe the contribution of measles mortality reduction efforts, including those spearheaded by the Measles Initiative (launched in 2001, the Measles Initiative is an international partnership committed to reducing measles deaths worldwide and is led by the American Red Cross, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, UNICEF, the United Nations Foundation, and the World Health Organization). We used published data to assess the effect of measles mortality reduction on overall and disease-specific global mortality rates among children aged <5 years by reviewing the results from studies with the best estimates on causes of deaths in children aged 0-59 months. The estimated measles-related mortality among children aged <5 years worldwide decreased from 872,000 deaths in 1990 to 556,000 in 2001 (36% reduction) and to 118,000 in 2008 (86% reduction). All-cause mortality in this age group decreased from >12 million in 1990 to 10.6 million in 2001 (13% reduction) and to 8.8 million in 2008 (28% reduction). Measles accounted for about 7% of deaths in this age group in 1990 and 1% in 2008, equal to 23% of the global reduction in all-cause mortality in this age group from 1990 to 2008. Aggressive efforts to prevent measles have led to this remarkable reduction in measles deaths. The current funding gap and insufficient political commitment for measles control jeopardizes these achievements and presents a substantial risk to achieving MDG4. © The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved.

Comparison of built environment adaptations to heat exposure and mortality during hot weather, West Midlands region, UK.

PubMed

Taylor, Jonathon; Wilkinson, Paul; Picetti, Roberto; Symonds, Phil; Heaviside, Clare; Macintyre, Helen L; Davies, Michael; Mavrogianni, Anna; Hutchinson, Emma

2018-02-01

There is growing recognition of the need to improve protection against the adverse health effects of hot weather in the context of climate change. We quantify the impact of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) and selected adaptation measures made to dwellings on temperature exposure and mortality in the West Midlands region of the UK. We used 1) building physics models to assess indoor temperatures, initially in the existing housing stock and then following adaptation measures (energy efficiency building fabric upgrades and/or window shutters), of representative dwelling archetypes using data from the English Housing Survey (EHS), and 2) modelled UHI effect on outdoor temperatures. The ages of residents were combined with evidence on the heat-mortality relationship to estimate mortality risk and to quantify population-level changes in risk following adaptations to reduce summertime heat exposure. Results indicate that the UHI effect accounts for an estimated 21% of mortality. External shutters may reduce heat-related mortality by 30-60% depending on weather conditions, while shutters in conjunction with energy-efficient retrofitting may reduce risk by up to 52%. The use of shutters appears to be one of the most effective measures providing protection against heat-related mortality during periods of high summer temperatures, although their effectiveness may be limited under extreme temperatures. Energy efficiency adaptations to the dwellings and measures to increase green space in the urban environment to combat the UHI effect appear to be less beneficial for reducing heat-related mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impacts of upstream drought and water withdrawals on the health and survival of downstream estuarine oyster populations

PubMed Central

Petes, Laura E; Brown, Alicia J; Knight, Carley R

2012-01-01

Increases in the frequency, duration, and severity of regional drought pose major threats to the health and integrity of downstream ecosystems. During 2007–2008, the U.S. southeast experienced one of the most severe droughts on record. Drought and water withdrawals in the upstream watershed led to decreased freshwater input to Apalachicola Bay, Florida, an estuary that is home to a diversity of commercially and ecologically important organisms. This study applied a combination of laboratory experiments and field observations to investigate the effects of reduced freshwater input on Apalachicola oysters. Oysters suffered significant disease-related mortality under high-salinity, drought conditions, particularly during the warm summer months. Mortality was size-specific, with large oysters of commercially harvestable size being more susceptible than small oysters. A potential salinity threshold was revealed between 17 and 25 ppt, where small oysters began to suffer mortality, and large oysters exhibited an increase in mortality. These findings have important implications for watershed management, because upstream freshwater releases could be carefully timed and allocated during stressful periods of the summer to reduce disease-related oyster mortality. Integrated, forward-looking water management is needed, particularly under future scenarios of climate change and human population growth, to sustain the valuable ecosystem services on which humans depend. PMID:22957175

Comparison of the effects of albumin and crystalloid on mortality in adult patients with severe sepsis and septic shock: a meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials.

PubMed

Xu, Jing-Yuan; Chen, Qi-Hong; Xie, Jian-Feng; Pan, Chun; Liu, Song-Qiao; Huang, Li-Wei; Yang, Cong-Shan; Liu, Ling; Huang, Ying-Zi; Guo, Feng-Mei; Yang, Yi; Qiu, Hai-Bo

2014-12-15

The aim of this study was to examine whether albumin reduced mortality when employed for the resuscitation of adult patients with severe sepsis and septic shock compared with crystalloid by meta-analysis. We searched for and gathered data from MEDLINE, Elsevier, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and Web of Science databases. Studies were eligible if they compared the effects of albumin versus crystalloid therapy on mortality in adult patients with severe sepsis and septic shock. Two reviewers extracted data independently. Disagreements were resolved by discussion with other two reviewers until a consensus was achieved. Data including mortality, sample size of the patients with severe sepsis, sample size of the patients with septic shock and resuscitation endpoints were extracted. Data were analyzed by the methods recommended by the Cochrane Collaboration Review Manager 4.2 software. A total of 5,534 records were identified through the initial search. Five studies compared albumin with crystalloid. In total, 3,658 severe sepsis and 2,180 septic shock patients were included in the meta-analysis. The heterogeneity was determined to be non-significant (P = 0.86, I(2) = 0%). Compared with crystalloid, a trend toward reduced 90-day mortality was observed in severe sepsis patients resuscitated with albumin (odds ratio (OR) 0.88; 95% CI, 0.76 to 1.01; P = 0.08). However, the use of albumin for resuscitation significantly decreased 90-day mortality in septic shock patients (OR 0.81; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.97; P = 0.03). Compared with saline, the use of albumin for resuscitation slightly improved outcome in severe sepsis patients (OR 0.81; 95% CI, 0.64 to 1.08; P = 0.09). In this meta-analysis, a trend toward reduced 90-day mortality was observed in severe sepsis patients resuscitated with albumin compared with crystalloid and saline. Moreover, the 90-day mortality of patients with septic shock decreased significantly.

Roadmap to control HBV and HDV epidemics in China

DOE PAGES

Goyal, Ashish; Murray, John M.

2017-04-23

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is endemic in China. Almost 10% of HBV infected individuals are also infected with hepatitis D virus (HDV) which has a 5–10 times higher mortality rate than HBV mono-infection. The aim of this manuscript is to devise strategies that can not only control HBV infections but also HDV infections in China under the current health care budget in an optimal manner. Furthermore, using a mathematical model, an annual budget of 10 billion dollars was optimally allocated among five interventions namely, testing and HBV adult vaccination, treatment for mono-infected and dually-infected individuals, second line treatment for HBVmore » mono-infections, and awareness programs. As a result, we determine that the optimal strategy is to test and treat both infections as early as possible while applying awareness programs at full intensity. Under this strategy, an additional 19.8 million HBV, 1.9 million HDV infections and 0.25 million lives will be saved over the next 10 years at a cost-savings of 79 billion dollars than performing no intervention. Introduction of second line treatment does not add a significant economic burden yet prevents 1.4 million new HBV infections and 15,000 new HDV infections. In conclusion, test and treatment programs are highly efficient in reducing HBV and HDV prevalence in the population. Under the current health budget in China, not only test and treat programs but awareness programs and second line treatment can also be implemented that minimizes prevalence and mortality, and maximizes economic benefits.« less

Roadmap to control HBV and HDV epidemics in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goyal, Ashish; Murray, John M.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is endemic in China. Almost 10% of HBV infected individuals are also infected with hepatitis D virus (HDV) which has a 5–10 times higher mortality rate than HBV mono-infection. The aim of this manuscript is to devise strategies that can not only control HBV infections but also HDV infections in China under the current health care budget in an optimal manner. Furthermore, using a mathematical model, an annual budget of 10 billion dollars was optimally allocated among five interventions namely, testing and HBV adult vaccination, treatment for mono-infected and dually-infected individuals, second line treatment for HBVmore » mono-infections, and awareness programs. As a result, we determine that the optimal strategy is to test and treat both infections as early as possible while applying awareness programs at full intensity. Under this strategy, an additional 19.8 million HBV, 1.9 million HDV infections and 0.25 million lives will be saved over the next 10 years at a cost-savings of 79 billion dollars than performing no intervention. Introduction of second line treatment does not add a significant economic burden yet prevents 1.4 million new HBV infections and 15,000 new HDV infections. In conclusion, test and treatment programs are highly efficient in reducing HBV and HDV prevalence in the population. Under the current health budget in China, not only test and treat programs but awareness programs and second line treatment can also be implemented that minimizes prevalence and mortality, and maximizes economic benefits.« less

Tree mortality from a short-duration freezing event and global-change-type drought in a Southwestern piñon-juniper woodland, USA

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

This study documents tree mortality in Big Bend National Park in Texas in response to the most acute one-year drought on record, which occurred following a five-day winter freeze. I estimated changes in forest stand structure and species composition due to freezing and drought in the Chisos Mountains of Big Bend National Park using permanent monitoring plot data. The drought killed over half (63%) of the sampled trees over the entire elevation gradient. Significant mortality occurred in trees up to 20 cm diameter (P < 0.05). Pinus cembroides Zucc. experienced the highest seedling and tree mortality (P < 0.0001) (55% of piñon pines died), and over five times as many standing dead pines were observed in 2012 than in 2009. Juniperus deppeana vonSteudal and Quercus emoryi Leibmann also experienced significant declines in tree density (P < 0.02) (30.9% and 20.7%, respectively). Subsequent droughts under climate change will likely cause even greater damage to trees that survived this record drought, especially if such events follow freezes. The results from this study highlight the vulnerability of trees in the Southwest to climatic change and that future shifts in forest structure can have large-scale community consequences. PMID:24949231

Measles control strategies in India: position paper of Indian Academy of Pediatrics.

PubMed

Vashishtha, V M; Choudhury, P; Bansal, C P; Gupta, S G

2013-06-08

Measles continues to be a major cause of childhood morbidity and mortality in India. Recent studies estimate that 80,000 Indian children die each year due to measles and its complications, amounting to 4% of under-5 deaths. Immunization against measles directly contributes to the reduction of under five child mortality and hence to the achievement of Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4). The live attenuated measles vaccines are safe, effective and provide long lasting protection. The key strategies being followed globally for measles mortality reduction are high coverage of measles first dose, sensitive laboratory supported surveillance, appropriate case management, and providing second dose of measles vaccine. Prior to 2010, India was the only country in the world that had not introduced a second dose of measles vaccine in its National immunization program. We herein discuss the current status of measles vaccination along with the rationale and challenges of providing a second opportunity for measles vaccination, and the principles of measles catch-up campaigns.

Area-wide application of verbenone-releasing flakes reduces mortality of whitebark pine Pinus albicaulis caused by the mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae

Treesearch

Nancy E. Gillette; E. Matthew Hansen; Constance J. Mehmel; Sylvia R. Mori; Jeffrey N. Webster; Nadir Erbilgin; David L. Wood

2012-01-01

DISRUPT Micro-Flake Verbenone Bark Beetle Anti-Aggregant flakes (Hercon Environmental, Inc., Emigsville, Pennsylvania) were applied in two large-scale tests to assess their efficacy for protecting whitebark pine Pinus albicaulis Engelm. from attack by mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Scolytinae) (MPB). At two locations, five...

Thinning increases growth of 60-year-old cherry-maple stands in West Virginia

Treesearch

Neil I. Lamson; Neil I. Lamson

1985-01-01

In north-central West Virginia, previously unmanaged 60-year-old cherrymaple stands were thinned to 60 percent relative stand density. Thinning reduced mortality, redistributed growth onto fewer, larger stems, and increased individual tree growth. Five-year periodic basal-area growth per acre was 1.2 times greater in thinned stands than in unthinned stands. Periodic...

Use of a portable system with ultrasound and blood tests to improve prenatal controls in rural Guatemala.

PubMed

Crispín Milart, Patricia Hanna; Diaz Molina, César Augusto; Prieto-Egido, Ignacio; Martínez-Fernández, Andrés

2016-09-13

Maternal and neonatal mortality figures remain unacceptably high worldwide and new approaches are required to address this problem. This paper evaluates the impact on maternal and neonatal mortality of a pregnancy care package for rural areas of developing countries with portable ultrasound and blood/urine tests. An observational study was conducted, with intervention and control groups not randomly assigned. Rural areas of the districts of Senahu, Campur and Carcha, in Alta Verapaz Department (Guatemala). The control group is composed by 747 pregnant women attended by the community facilitator, which is the common practice in rural Guatemala. The intervention group is composed by 762 pregnant women attended under the innovative Healthy Pregnancy project. That project strengthens the local prenatal care program, providing local nurses training, portable ultrasound equipment and blood and urine tests. The information of each pregnancy is registered in a medical exchange tool, and is later reviewed by a gynecology specialist to ensure a correct diagnosis and improve nurses training. No maternal deaths were reported within the intervention group, versus five cases in the control group. Regarding neonatal deaths, official data revealed a 64 % reduction for neonatal mortality. A 37 % prevalence of anemia was detected. Non-urgent referral was recommended to 70 pregnancies, being fetal malpresentation the main reported cause. Impact data on maternal mortality (reduction to zero) and neonatal mortality (NMR was reduced to 36 %) are encouraging, although we are aware of the limitations of the study related to possible biasing and the small sample size. The major reduction of maternal and neonatal mortality provides promising prospects for these low-cost diagnostic procedures, which allow to provide high quality prenatal care in isolated rural communities of developing countries. This research was not registered because it is an observational study where the assignment of the medical intervention was not at the discretion of the investigators.

Influence of cardiogenic shock with or without the use of intra-aortic balloon pump on mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Jensen, Jesper Khedri; Thayssen, Per; Antonsen, Lisbeth; Hougaard, Mikkel; Junker, Anders; Pedersen, Knud Erik; Jensen, Lisette Okkels

2015-03-01

Cardiogenic shock is a serious complication of a ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). We compared short- and long-term mortality among (1) STEMI patients with and without cardiogenic shock and (2) STEMI patients with cardiogenic shock with and without the use of an intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP). From January 1, 2002 to December 31, 2010, all patients presenting with STEMI and treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) were identified. The hazard ratio (HR) for death was estimated using a Cox regression model, controlling for potential confounding. The study cohort consisted of 4293 STEMI patients: 286 (6.7%) with and 4007 (93.3%) without cardiogenic shock. Compared with patients without cardiogenic shock, patients with cardiogenic shock were older, and more likely to have diabetes mellitus, multi-vessel disease, anterior myocardial infarction (MI) or bundle-branch block MI and a reduced creatinine clearance. Among patients with cardiogenic shock vs. without shock, 30-day cumulative mortality was 57.3% vs. 4.5% (p < 0.001), one-year cumulative mortality was 60.7% vs. 8.2% (p < 0.001) and five-year mortality was 65.0% vs. 18.9% (p < 0.001). STEMI with cardiogenic shock was associated with higher 30-day mortality (adjusted HR = 12.89 [95% CI: 9.72-16.66]), 1-year mortality (adjusted HR = 8.83 [95% CI: 7.06-11.05]) and five-year mortality (adjusted HR = 6.39 [95% CI: 5.22-7.80]). IABP was used in 71 (25%) patients with cardiogenic shock and was associated with improved 30-day outcome (adjusted HR = 0.48 [95% CI: 0.28-0.83]). Patients with STEMI and cardiogenic shock had substantial short- and long-term mortality that may be improved with IABP implantation. More studies on use of IABP in such patients are warranted.

Quantifying cause-related mortality by weighting multiple causes of death

PubMed Central

Moreno-Betancur, Margarita; Lamarche-Vadel, Agathe; Rey, Grégoire

2016-01-01

Abstract Objective To investigate a new approach to calculating cause-related standardized mortality rates that involves assigning weights to each cause of death reported on death certificates. Methods We derived cause-related standardized mortality rates from death certificate data for France in 2010 using: (i) the classic method, which considered only the underlying cause of death; and (ii) three novel multiple-cause-of-death weighting methods, which assigned weights to multiple causes of death mentioned on death certificates: the first two multiple-cause-of-death methods assigned non-zero weights to all causes mentioned and the third assigned non-zero weights to only the underlying cause and other contributing causes that were not part of the main morbid process. As the sum of the weights for each death certificate was 1, each death had an equal influence on mortality estimates and the total number of deaths was unchanged. Mortality rates derived using the different methods were compared. Findings On average, 3.4 causes per death were listed on each certificate. The standardized mortality rate calculated using the third multiple-cause-of-death weighting method was more than 20% higher than that calculated using the classic method for five disease categories: skin diseases, mental disorders, endocrine and nutritional diseases, blood diseases and genitourinary diseases. Moreover, this method highlighted the mortality burden associated with certain diseases in specific age groups. Conclusion A multiple-cause-of-death weighting approach to calculating cause-related standardized mortality rates from death certificate data identified conditions that contributed more to mortality than indicated by the classic method. This new approach holds promise for identifying underrecognized contributors to mortality. PMID:27994280

Five-year all-cause mortality rates across five categories of substantiated elder abuse occurring in the community.

PubMed

Burnett, Jason; Jackson, Shelly L; Sinha, Arup K; Aschenbrenner, Andrew R; Murphy, Kathleen Pace; Xia, Rui; Diamond, Pamela M

2016-01-01

Elder abuse increases the likelihood of early mortality, but little is known regarding which types of abuse may be resulting in the greatest mortality risk. This study included N = 1,670 cases of substantiated elder abuse and estimated the 5-year all-cause mortality for five types of elder abuse (caregiver neglect, physical abuse, emotional abuse, financial exploitation, and polyvictimization). Statistically significant differences in 5-year mortality risks were found between abuse types and across gender. Caregiver neglect and financial exploitation had the lowest survival rates, underscoring the value of considering the long-term consequences associated with different forms of abuse. Likewise, mortality differences between genders and abuse types indicate the need to consider this interaction in elder abuse case investigations and responses. Further mortality studies are needed in this population to better understand these patterns and implications for public health and clinical management of community-dwelling elder abuse victims.

The Effect of Gender Inequality in Education on Health: Evidence from Turkey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erdogan, Seyfettin; Yildirim, Durmus Cagri; Tosuner, Ozlem

2012-01-01

One of the main variables affecting the level of human capital positively is the improvements in health. The reduction in infant and under-five mortality rates and increase in life expectancy at birth are the basic indicators of improvements in health. One of the major sources of improvements in these variables is education. Theoretical literature…

Community perceptions and attitudes on malaria case management and the role of community health workers.

PubMed

Owek, Collins J; Oluoch, Elizabeth; Wachira, Juddy; Estambale, Benson; Afrane, Yaw A

2017-07-04

Community Case Management of malaria (CCMm) is one of the new approaches adopted by the World Health Organization for malaria endemic countries to reduce the burden of malaria for vulnerable populations. It is based on the evidence that well-trained and supervised community health workers (CHWs) can provide prompt and adequate treatment to fever cases within 24 h to help reduce morbidity and mortality associated with malaria among under-five children. The perception and attitudes of the community members on the CHWs' role is of greater importance for acceptance of their services. The aim of the study was to assess community's perception and attitude towards CCMm and on CHWs who undertake it. This study was conducted in five districts in western Kenya where Community Case Management was being undertaken. This was a qualitative cross-sectional study in which in-depth interviews and focus group discussions were conducted with mothers of under-five children and key stakeholders. Overall, there were more positive expressions of perceptions and attitudes of the community members towards the CCMm programme and the role of CHWs. The positive perceptions included among others; recognition and appreciation of services of CHWs, bringing health services to close proximity to the community, avoiding long queues in the health facilities, provision of health education that encourages good health practices, and promotion of positive health-seeking behaviour from within the communities. This programme is not without challenges as some of the negative perceptions expressed by the community members included the fact that some clinicians doubt the capacity of CHWs on dispensing drugs in the community, some CHWs do not keep client's secrets and mistrust of CHWs due to conflicting information by government. It was evident that the community had more positive perceptions and attitudes towards the role of CHWs in CCMm than negative ones. There should however, be deliberate efforts towards sustaining the positive aspects and addressing the negative concerns raised by the community and the health care practitioners.

Child health and nutrition in Peru within an antipoverty political agenda: a Countdown to 2015 country case study.

PubMed

Huicho, Luis; Segura, Eddy R; Huayanay-Espinoza, Carlos A; de Guzman, Jessica Niño; Restrepo-Méndez, Maria Clara; Tam, Yvonne; Barros, Aluisio J D; Victora, Cesar G

2016-06-01

Peru is an upper-middle-income country with wide social and regional disparities. In recent years, sustained multisectoral antipoverty programmes involving governments, political parties, and civil society have included explicit health and nutrition goals and spending increased sharply. We did a country case study with the aim of documenting Peru's progress in reproductive, maternal, neonatal, and child health from 2000-13, and explored the potential determinants. We examined the outcomes of health interventions coverage, under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, and prevalence of under-5 stunting. We obtained data from interviews with key informants, a literature review of published and unpublished data, national censuses, and governmental reports. We obtained information on social determinants of health, including economic growth, poverty, unmet basic needs, urbanisation, women's education, water supply, fertility rates, and child nutrition from the annual national households surveys and the Peruvian Demographic and Health Surveys. We obtained national mortality data from the Interagency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, and calculated subnational rates from 11 surveys. Analyses were stratified by region, wealth quintiles, and urban or rural residence. We calculated coverage indicators for the years 2000-13, and we used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate the effect of changes in intervention coverage and in nutritional status on mortality. From 2000 to 2013, under-5 mortality fell by 58% from 39·8 deaths per 1000 livebirths to 16·7. LiST, which was used to predict the decline in mortality arising from changes in fertility rates, water and sanitation, undernutrition, and coverage of indicators of reproductive, maternal, neonatal, and child health predicted that the under-5 mortality rate would fall from 39·8 to 28·4 per 1000 livebirths, accounting for 49·2% of the reported reduction. Neonatal mortality fell by 51% from 16·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths to 8·0. Stunting prevalence remained stable at around 30% until 2007, decreasing to 17·5% by 2013, and the composite coverage index for essential health interventions increased from 75·1% to 82·6%, with faster increases among the poor, in rural areas, and in the Andean region. Socioeconomic, urban-rural, and regional inequalities in coverage, mortality, and stunting were substantially reduced. The proportion of the population living below the poverty line reduced from 47·8% to 23·9%, women with fewer than 4 years of schooling reduced from 11·5% to 6·9%, urbanisation increased from 68·1% to 75·6%, and the total fertility rate decreased from 3·0 children per woman to 2·4. We interviewed 175 key informants and they raised the following issues: economic growth, improvement of social determinants, civil society empowerment and advocacy, out-of-health and within-health-sector changes, and sustained implementation of evidence-based, pro-poor reproductive, maternal, neonatal, and child health interventions. Peru has made substantial progress in reducing neonatal and under-5 mortality, and child stunting. This country is a good example of how a combination of political will, economic growth, broad societal participation, strategies focused on poor people, and increased spending in health and related sectors can achieve significant progress in reproductive, maternal, neonatal, and child health. The remaining challenges include continuing to address inequalities in wealth distribution, poverty, and access to basic services, especially in the Amazon and Andean rural areas. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2016 Huicho et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY 4.0. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Severe Hypoglycemia–Induced Lethal Cardiac Arrhythmias Are Mediated by Sympathoadrenal Activation

PubMed Central

Reno, Candace M.; Daphna-Iken, Dorit; Chen, Y. Stefanie; VanderWeele, Jennifer; Jethi, Krishan; Fisher, Simon J.

2013-01-01

For people with insulin-treated diabetes, severe hypoglycemia can be lethal, though potential mechanisms involved are poorly understood. To investigate how severe hypoglycemia can be fatal, hyperinsulinemic, severe hypoglycemic (10–15 mg/dL) clamps were performed in Sprague-Dawley rats with simultaneous electrocardiogram monitoring. With goals of reducing hypoglycemia-induced mortality, the hypotheses tested were that: 1) antecedent glycemic control impacts mortality associated with severe hypoglycemia; 2) with limitation of hypokalemia, potassium supplementation could limit hypoglycemia-associated deaths; 3) with prevention of central neuroglycopenia, brain glucose infusion could prevent hypoglycemia-associated arrhythmias and deaths; and 4) with limitation of sympathoadrenal activation, adrenergic blockers could prevent hypoglycemia-induced arrhythmic deaths. Severe hypoglycemia–induced mortality was noted to be worsened by diabetes, but recurrent antecedent hypoglycemia markedly improved the ability to survive an episode of severe hypoglycemia. Potassium supplementation tended to reduce mortality. Severe hypoglycemia caused numerous cardiac arrhythmias including premature ventricular contractions, tachycardia, and high-degree heart block. Intracerebroventricular glucose infusion reduced severe hypoglycemia–induced arrhythmias and overall mortality. β-Adrenergic blockade markedly reduced cardiac arrhythmias and completely abrogated deaths due to severe hypoglycemia. Under conditions studied, sudden deaths caused by insulin-induced severe hypoglycemia were mediated by lethal cardiac arrhythmias triggered by brain neuroglycopenia and the marked sympathoadrenal response. PMID:23835337

Male mealworm beetles increase resting metabolic rate under terminal investment.

PubMed

Krams, I A; Krama, T; Moore, F R; Kivleniece, I; Kuusik, A; Freeberg, T M; Mänd, R; Rantala, M J; Daukšte, J; Mänd, M

2014-03-01

Harmful parasite infestation can cause energetically costly behavioural and immunological responses, with the potential to reduce host fitness and survival. It has been hypothesized that the energetic costs of infection cause resting metabolic rate (RMR) to increase. Furthermore, under terminal investment theory, individuals exposed to pathogens should allocate resources to current reproduction when life expectancy is reduced, instead of concentrating resources on an immune defence. In this study, we activated the immune system of Tenebrio molitor males via insertion of nylon monofilament, conducted female preference tests to estimate attractiveness of male odours and assessed RMR and mortality. We found that attractiveness of males coincided with significant down-regulation of their encapsulation response against a parasite-like intruder. Activation of the immune system increased RMR only in males with heightened odour attractiveness and that later suffered higher mortality rates. The results suggest a link between high RMR and mortality and support terminal investment theory in T. molitor. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Using Multi-Temporal Imaging Spectroscopy Data to Detect Drought and Bark Beetle Related Conifer Mortality across the Central Sierra Nevada, California, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tane, Z.; Ramirez, C.; Roberts, D. A.; Koltunov, A.; Sweeney, S.

2016-12-01

There is considerable scientific and public interest in the ongoing drought and bark beetle driven conifer mortality in the Central and Southern Sierra Nevada, the scale of which has not been seen previously in California's recorded history. Just before and during this mortality event (2013-2016), Airborne Visible / Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data were acquired seasonally over part of the affected area as part of the HyspIRI Preparatory Mission. In this study, we used 11 AVIRIS flight lines from 8 seasonal flights (from spring 2013 to summer 2015) to detect conifer mortality. In addition to the standard pre-processing completed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab, AVIRIS images were co-registered and georeferenced between time steps and images were resampled to the spatial resolution and signal-to-noise ratio expected from the proposed HyspIRI satellite. We used summer 2015 high-spatial resolution WorldView-2 and WorldView-3 images from across the study area to collect training data from five scenes, and independent validation data from five additional scenes. A cover class map developed with a machine-learning algorithm, separated pixels into green conifer, red-attack conifer, and non-conifer dominant cover, yielding a high accuracy (above 85% accuracy on the independent validation data) in the tree mortality final map. Discussion will include the effects of temporal information and input dimensionality on classification accuracy, comparison with multi-spectral classification accuracy, the ecological and forest management implications of this work, incorporating 2016 AVIRS images to detect 2016 mortality, and future work in understanding the spatial patterns underlying the mortality.

Mortality in high-risk patients with bleeding Mallory-Weiss syndrome is similar to that of peptic ulcer bleeding. Results of a prospective database study.

PubMed

Ljubičić, Neven; Budimir, Ivan; Pavić, Tajana; Bišćanin, Alen; Puljiz, Zeljko; Bratanić, Andre; Troskot, Branko; Zekanović, Dražen

2014-04-01

The aim of this study was to identify the predictive factors influencing mortality in patients with bleeding Mallory-Weiss syndrome in comparison with peptic ulcer bleeding. Between January 2005 and December 2009, 281 patients with endoscopically confirmed Mallory-Weiss syndrome and 1530 patients with peptic ulcer bleeding were consecutively evaluated. The 30-day mortality and clinical outcome were related to the patients' demographic data, endoscopic, and clinical characteristics. The one-year cumulative incidence for bleeding Mallory-Weiss syndrome was 7.3 cases/100,000 people and for peptic ulcer bleeding 40.4 cases/100,000 people. The age-standardized incidence for both bleeding Mallory-Weiss syndrome and peptic ulcer bleeding remained unchanged during the observational five-year period. The majority of patients with bleeding Mallory-Weiss syndrome were male patients with significant overall comorbidities (ASA class 3-4). Overall 30-day mortality rate was 5.3% for patients with bleeding Mallory-Weiss syndrome and 4.6% for patients with peptic ulcer bleeding (p = 0.578). In both patients with bleeding Mallory-Weiss syndrome and peptic ulcer bleeding, mortality was significantly higher in patients over 65 years of age and those with significant overall comorbidities (ASA class 3-4). The incidence of bleeding Mallory-Weiss syndrome and peptic ulcer bleeding has not changed over a five-year observational period. The overall 30-day mortality was almost equal for both bleeding Mallory-Weiss syndrome and peptic ulcer bleeding and was positively correlated to older age and underlying comorbid illnesses.

Racial/ethnic variations in the prevalence of selected major birth defects, metropolitan Atlanta, 1994-2005.

PubMed

Kucik, James E; Alverson, Clinton J; Gilboa, Suzanne M; Correa, Adolfo

2012-01-01

Birth defects are the leading cause of infant mortality and are responsible for substantial child and adult morbidity. Documenting the variation in prevalence of birth defects among racial/ethnic subpopulations is critical for assessing possible variations in diagnosis, case ascertainment, or risk factors among such groups. We used data from the Metropolitan Atlanta Congenital Defects Program, a population-based birth defects registry with active case ascertainment. We estimated the racial/ethnic variation in prevalence of 46 selected major birth defects among live births, stillbirths, and pregnancy terminations at >20 weeks gestation among mothers residing in the five central counties of metropolitan Atlanta between 1994 and 2005, adjusting for infant sex, maternal age, gravidity, and socioeconomic status (SES). We also explored SES as a potential effect measure modifier. Compared with births to non-Hispanic white women, births to non-Hispanic black women had a significantly higher prevalence of five birth defects and a significantly lower prevalence of 10 birth defects, while births to Hispanic women had a significantly higher prevalence of four birth defects and a significantly lower prevalence of six birth defects. The racial/ethnic disparities in the prevalence of some defects varied by SES, but no clear pattern emerged. Racial/ethnic disparities were suggested in 57% of included birth defects. Disparities in the prevalence of birth defects may result from different underlying genetic susceptibilities; exposure to risk factors; or variability in case diagnosis, ascertainment, or reporting among the subpopulations examined. Policies that improve early diagnosis of birth defects could reduce associated morbidity and mortality.

Mortality associated with Hurricane Katrina--Florida and Alabama, August-October 2005.

PubMed

2006-03-10

On August 25, 2005, Hurricane Katrina made landfall between Hallandale Beach and Aventura, Florida, as a Category 1 hurricane, with sustained winds of 80 mph. Storm effects, primarily rain, flooding, and high winds, were substantial; certain areas reported nearly 12 inches of rainfall. After crossing southern Florida and entering the Gulf of Mexico, the hurricane strengthened and made landfall in southeastern Louisiana on August 29 as a Category 3 hurricane, with sustained winds of 125 mph. Katrina was one of the strongest hurricanes to strike the United States during the past 100 years and was likely the nation's costliest natural disaster to date. This report summarizes findings and recommendations from a review of mortality records of Florida's Medical Examiners Commission (FMEC) and the Alabama Department of Forensic Science (ADFS). CDC was invited by the Florida Department of Health (FDOH) and the Alabama Department of Public Health (ADPH) to assess the mortality related to Hurricane Katrina. The mortality review was intended to provide county-based information that would be used to 1) define the impact of the hurricane, 2) describe the etiology of deaths, and 3) identify strategies to prevent or reduce future hurricane-related mortality. Combined, both agencies identified five, 23, and 10 deaths, respectively, that were directly, indirectly, or possibly related to Hurricane Katrina. Information from the characterization of these deaths will be used to reduce hurricane-related mortality through early community awareness of hurricane-related risk, prevention measures, and effective communication of a coordinated hurricane response plan.

A Reduced-Intensity Conditioning Regimen for Patients with Dyskeratosis Congenita Undergoing Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation.

PubMed

Nelson, Adam S; Marsh, Rebecca A; Myers, Kasiani C; Davies, Stella M; Jodele, Sonata; O'Brien, Tracey A; Mehta, Parinda A

2016-05-01

Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is the only curative option for progressive marrow failure, myelodysplastic syndrome, or leukemia associated with dyskeratosis congenita (DC). HSCT for DC is limited by a high incidence of treatment-related mortality, thought to be related to underlying chromosomal instability and sensitivity to chemotherapy and radiation. We report our experience in 7 patients with DC who underwent allogeneic transplantation using a reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) preparative regimen that contained chemotherapy only (no radiation). This RIC regimen, designed specifically for patients with DC, contained alemtuzumab, fludarabine, and melphalan (with melphalan at 50% reduced dosing), with the goal of decreasing toxicity and improving outcome. All 7 patients engrafted, with none developing mixed chimerism or rejection. Two patients experienced acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) and 1 went on to develop limited chronic GVHD of the skin. Five patients remain alive and well at a median follow-up of 44 months (range, 14 to 57 months). We conclude that a radiation-free RIC regimen results in durable engraftment, acceptable toxicity, and improved overall survival in patients with DC undergoing allogeneic HSCT. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Water for Life: The Impact of the Privatization of Water Services on Child Mortality.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Galiani, Sebastian; Gertler, Paul; Schargrodsky, Ernesto

2005-01-01

While most countries are committed to increasing access to safe water and thereby reducing child mortality, there is little consensus on how to actually improve water services. One important proposal under discussion is whether to privatize water provision. In the 1990s Argentina embarked on one of the largest privatization campaigns in the world,…

Labor migration and child mortality in Mozambique

PubMed Central

Yabiku, Scott T.; Agadjanian, Victor; Cau, Boaventura

2013-01-01

Male labor migration is widespread in many parts of the world, yet its consequences for child outcomes and especially childhood mortality remain unclear. Male labor migration could bring benefits, in the form of remittances, to the families that remain behind and thus help child survival. Alternatively, the absence of a male adult could imperil the household's well-being and its ability to care for its members, increasing child mortality risks. In this analysis, we use longitudinal survey data from Mozambique collected in 2006 and 2009 to examine the association between male labor migration and under-five mortality in families that remain behind. Using a simple migrant/non-migrant dichotomy, we find no difference in mortality rates across migrant and non-migrant men's children. When we separated successful from unsuccessful migration based on the wife's perception, however, stark contrasts emerge: children of successful migrants have the lowest mortality, followed by children of non-migrant men, followed by the children of unsuccessful migrants. Our results illustrate the need to account for the diversity of men's labor migration experience in examining the effects of migration on left-behind households. PMID:23121856

Burden of climate change on malaria mortality.

PubMed

Dasgupta, Shouro

2018-06-01

In 2016, an estimated 445,000 deaths and 216 million cases of malaria occurred worldwide, while 70% of the deaths occurred in children under five years old. Changes in climatic exposures such as temperature and precipitation make malaria one of the most climate sensitive outcomes. Using a global malaria mortality dataset for 105 countries between 1980 and 2010, we find a non-linear relationship between temperature and malaria mortality and estimate that the global optimal temperature threshold beyond which all-age malaria mortality increases is 20.8 °C, while in the case of child mortality; a significantly lower optimum temperature of 19.3° is estimated. Our results also suggest that this optimal temperature is 28.4 °C and 26.3 °C in Africa and Asia, respectively - the continents where malaria is most prevalent. Furthermore, we estimate that child mortality (ages 0-4) is likely to increase by up to 20% in some areas due to climate change by the end of the 21st century. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Maternal and child mortality indicators across 187 countries of the world: converging or diverging.

PubMed

Goli, Srinivas; Arokiasamy, Perianayagam

2014-01-01

This study reassessed the progress achieved since 1990 in maternal and child mortality indicators to test whether the progress is converging or diverging across countries worldwide. The convergence process is examined using standard parametric and non-parametric econometric models of convergence. The results of absolute convergence estimates reveal that progress in maternal and child mortality indicators is diverging for the entire period of 1990-2010 [maternal mortality ratio (MMR) - β = .00033, p < .574; neonatal mortality rate (NNMR) - β = .04367, p < .000; post-neonatal mortality rate (PNMR) - β = .02677, p < .000; under-five mortality rate (U5MR) - β = .00828, p < .000)]. In the recent period, such divergence is replaced with convergence for MMR but diverged for all the child mortality indicators. The results of Kernel density estimate reveal considerable reduction in divergence of MMR for the recent period; however, the Kernel density distribution plots show more than one 'peak' which indicates the emergence of convergence clubs based on their mortality levels. For child mortality indicators, the Kernel estimates suggest that divergence is in progress across the countries worldwide but tended to converge for countries with low mortality levels. A mere progress in global averages of maternal and child mortality indicators among a global cross-section of countries does not warranty convergence unless there is a considerable reduction in variance, skewness and range of change.

The role of marriage in the causal pathway from economic conditions early in life to mortality.

PubMed

van den Berg, Gerard J; Gupta, Sumedha

2015-03-01

This paper analyzes the interplay between early-life conditions and marital status, as determinants of adult mortality. We use individual data from Dutch registers (years 1815-2000), combined with business cycle conditions in childhood as indicators of early-life conditions. The empirical analysis estimates bivariate duration models of marriage and mortality, allowing for unobserved heterogeneity. Results show that conditions around birth and school going ages are important for marriage and mortality. Men typically enjoy a protective effect of marriage, whereas women suffer during childbearing ages. However, having been born under favorable economic conditions reduces female mortality during childbearing ages. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Why is the gender gap in life expectancy decreasing? The impact of age- and cause-specific mortality in Sweden 1997-2014.

PubMed

Sundberg, Louise; Agahi, Neda; Fritzell, Johan; Fors, Stefan

2018-04-13

To enhance the understanding of the current increase in life expectancy and decreasing gender gap in life expectancy. We obtained data on underlying cause of death from the National Board of Health and Welfare in Sweden for 1997 and 2014 and used Arriaga's method to decompose life expectancy by age group and 24 causes of death. Decreased mortality from ischemic heart disease had the largest impact on the increased life expectancy of both men and women and on the decreased gender gap in life expectancy. Increased mortality from Alzheimer's disease negatively influenced overall life expectancy, but because of higher female mortality, it also served to decrease the gender gap in life expectancy. The impact of other causes of death, particularly smoking-related causes, decreased in men but increased in women, also reducing the gap in life expectancy. This study shows that a focus on overall changes in life expectancies may hide important differences in age- and cause-specific mortality. It also emphasizes the importance of addressing modifiable lifestyle factors to reduce avoidable mortality.

The impact of prolonged drought on phloem anatomy and phloem transport in young beech trees.

PubMed

Dannoura, Masako; Epron, Daniel; Desalme, Dorine; Massonnet, Catherine; Tsuji, Shoko; Plain, Caroline; Priault, Pierrick; Gérant, Dominique

2018-06-20

Phloem failure has recently been recognized as one of the mechanisms causing tree mortality under drought, though direct evidence is still lacking. We combined 13C pulse-labelling of 8-year-old beech trees (Fagus sylvatica L.) growing outdoors in a nursery with an anatomical study of the phloem tissue in their stems to examine how drought alters carbon transport and phloem transport capacity. For the six trees under drought, predawn leaf water potential ranged from -0.7 to -2.4 MPa, compared with an average of -0.2 MPa in five control trees with no water stress. We also observed a longer residence time of excess 13C in the foliage and the phloem sap in trees under drought compared with controls. Compared with controls, excess 13C in trunk respiration peaked later in trees under moderate drought conditions and showed no decline even after 4 days under more severe drought conditions. We estimated higher phloem sap viscosity in trees under drought. We also observed much smaller sieve-tube radii in all drought-stressed trees, which led to lower sieve-tube conductivity and lower phloem conductance in the tree stem. We concluded that prolonged drought affected phloem transport capacity through a change in anatomy and that the slowdown of phloem transport under drought likely resulted from a reduced driving force due to lower hydrostatic pressure between the source and sink organs.

Reduced All-cause Child Mortality After General Measles Vaccination Campaign in Rural Guinea-Bissau.

PubMed

Fisker, Ane B; Rodrigues, Amabelia; Martins, Cesario; Ravn, Henrik; Byberg, Stine; Thysen, Sanne; Storgaard, Line; Pedersen, Marie; Fernandes, Manuel; Benn, Christine S; Aaby, Peter

2015-12-01

Randomized trials have shown that measles vaccine (MV) prevents nonmeasles deaths. MV campaigns are conducted to eliminate measles infection. The overall mortality effect of MV campaigns has not been studied. Bandim Health Project (BHP) surveys children aged 0-4 years in rural Guinea-Bissau through a health and demographic surveillance system. A national MV campaign in 2006 targeted children aged 6 months to 15 years. In a Cox proportional hazards model with age as the underlying timescale, we compared mortality of children aged 6-59 months after the campaign with mortality in the same age group during the 2 previous years. Eight thousand one hundred fifty eight children aged 6-59 months were under BHP surveillance during the 2006 campaign and 7999 and 8108 during similar periods in 2004 and 2005. At least 90% of the eligible children received MV in the campaign. There were 161 nonaccident deaths in 12 months after the campaign compared with 203 and 206 deaths in the 2 previous years, the adjusted mortality rate ratio (aMRR) comparing all children in 2006 with all children in 2004 to 2005 being 0.80 (95% confidence interval: 0.66-0.96). Censoring deaths caused by measles infection, the aMRR was 0.83 (0.69-1.00). The mortality reduction was separately significant for girls [aMRR = 0.74 (0.56-0.97)] and for children who also had received routine MV [MRR = 0.59 (0.36-0.99)]. Mortality levels were stable during 2004 and 2005, but a significant drop occurred after the 2006 MV campaign and was not explained by the prevention of measles deaths. If MV campaigns reduce nonmeasles-related mortality, the policies for measles vaccination should take this into account.

Decline in stroke mortality in North Carolina. Description, predictions, and a possible underlying cause.

PubMed

Howard, G

1993-09-01

Data from the National Center for Health Statistics were used to describe the decline in age-adjusted stroke mortality rates from 1962 to 1987 for North Carolina and for six regions of the state. For the state as a whole, stroke mortality decreased from 0.0050 to 0.0018 (64% decrease) for white males, 0.0039 to 0.0016 (59% decrease) for white females, 0.0072 to 0.0030 (58% decrease) for black males, and 0.0064 to 0.0025 (61% decrease) for black females. Under the hypothesis that the rate of decline in stroke mortality will slow and approach a "floor," a four-parameter logistic model was fit to the data. This model suggests that most of the decline in North Carolina stroke rates had occurred by 1987 and that the rates are now approaching the floor. For example, the estimated 1987 white male stroke mortality rate was 0.00190 and the floor 0.00176, suggesting only a 7% decline in the future. Similar percentage differences between 1987 levels and the floor were estimated for the three other race-gender groups. This analysis also suggested that while the absolute disparity by sex and race decreased between 1962 and 1987, the ratio of black to white mortality rates and the ratio of male to female mortality rates remained relatively constant. Estimates of 1-year case-fatality rates from two surveys of hospitalized stroke patients in a high-mortality five-county region of North Carolina decreased from 51% in 1970 to 38% in 1980. This decrease in stroke fatality rate is sufficient to account for 64% of the decrease in mortality estimated for this region over the same period.

Assessing the Evidence for Maternal Pertussis Immunization: A Report From the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Symposium on Pertussis Infant Disease Burden in Low- and Lower-Middle-Income Countries.

PubMed

Sobanjo-Ter Meulen, Ajoke; Duclos, Philippe; McIntyre, Peter; Lewis, Kristen D C; Van Damme, Pierre; O'Brien, Katherine L; Klugman, Keith P

2016-12-01

Implementation of effective interventions has halved maternal and child mortality over the past 2 decades, but less progress has been made in reducing neonatal mortality. Almost 45% of under-5 global mortality now occurs in infants <1 month of age, with approximately 86% of neonatal deaths occurring in low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs). As an estimated 23% of neonatal deaths globally are due to infectious causes, maternal immunization (MI) is one intervention that may reduce mortality in the first few months of life, when direct protection often relies on passively transmitted maternal antibodies. Despite all countries including pertussis-containing vaccines in their routine childhood immunization schedules, supported through the Expanded Programme on Immunization, pertussis continues to circulate globally. Although based on limited robust epidemiologic data, current estimates derived from modeling implicate pertussis in 1% of under-5 mortality, with infants too young to be vaccinated at highest risk of death. Pertussis MI programs have proven effective in reducing infant pertussis mortality in high-income countries using tetanus-diphtheria-acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccines in their maternal and infant programs; however, these vaccines are cost-prohibitive for routine use in LMICs. The reach of antenatal care programs to deliver maternal pertussis vaccines, particularly with respect to infants at greatest risk of pertussis, needs to be further evaluated. Recognizing that decisions on the potential impact of pertussis MI in LMICs need, as a first step, robust contemporary mortality data for early infant pertussis, a symposium of global key experts was held. The symposium reviewed current evidence and identified knowledge gaps with respect to the infant pertussis disease burden in LMICs, and discussed proposed strategies to assess the potential impact of pertussis MI. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Immediate Outcome of Hypoxic Ischaemic Encephalopathy in Hypoxiate Newborns in Nepal Medical College.

PubMed

Shrestha, S; Shrestha, G S; Sharma, A

2016-05-01

Birth asphyxia is the fifth major cause of under-five child deaths after pneumonia, diarrhoea, neonatal infections and complications of preterm birth. It is one of the important causes of neonatal mortality and morbidity accounting up to 30% of neonatal death in Nepal. It is also an important cause of long-term neurological disability and impairment. The mortality rate due to birth asphyxia is considered a good guide to the quality of perinatal care. This study was conducted to assess the rate of birth asphyxia, risk factors and outcome of the babies who were asphyxiated at birth. A prospective study was conducted during the period of one year from April 2013 to March 2014 in Nepal Medical College. All the term babies born during the period with APGAR score at 5 minutes of < 7 were considered to have birth asphyxia and included in the study. Details of maternal risk factors during pregnancy and labor were analyzed. The newborn babies were assessed for clinical features of hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) and its immediate outcome. Out of 2226 live births, 47 (15.9%) newborns had birth asphyxia with the rate of 21.1/1000 live births. The mortality rate due to birth asphyxia was 4.25%. Meconium stained liquor was present in 31(65.96%) cases during delivery and prolonged rupture of membrane in 7(14.89%). Early identification and close monitoring of high-risk mothers with maintaining partograph during labor help to reduce birth asphyxia.

Extremely cold and hot temperatures increase the risk of ischaemic heart disease mortality: epidemiological evidence from China.

PubMed

Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan; Zhang, Yanshen; Armstrong, Ben; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Tong, Shilu; Pan, Xiaochuan

2013-02-01

To examine the effects of extremely cold and hot temperatures on ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in five cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou) in China; and to examine the time relationships between cold and hot temperatures and IHD mortality for each city. A negative binomial regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine city-specific temperature effects on IHD mortality up to 20 lag days. A meta-analysis was used to pool the cold effects and hot effects across the five cities. 16 559 IHD deaths were monitored by a sentinel surveillance system in five cities during 2004-2008. The relationships between temperature and IHD mortality were non-linear in all five cities. The minimum-mortality temperatures in northern cities were lower than in southern cities. In Beijing, Tianjin and Guangzhou, the effects of extremely cold temperatures were delayed, while Shanghai and Wuhan had immediate cold effects. The effects of extremely hot temperatures appeared immediately in all the cities except Wuhan. Meta-analysis showed that IHD mortality increased 48% at the 1st percentile of temperature (extremely cold temperature) compared with the 10th percentile, while IHD mortality increased 18% at the 99th percentile of temperature (extremely hot temperature) compared with the 90th percentile. Results indicate that both extremely cold and hot temperatures increase IHD mortality in China. Each city has its characteristics of heat effects on IHD mortality. The policy for response to climate change should consider local climate-IHD mortality relationships.

Governance matters: an ecological association between governance and child mortality.

PubMed

Lin, Ro-Ting; Chien, Lung-Chang; Chen, Ya-Mei; Chan, Chang-Chuan

2014-09-01

Governance of a country may have widespread effects on the health of its population, yet little is known about the effect of governance on child mortality in a country that is undergoing urbanization, economic development, and disease control. We obtained indicators of six dimensions of governance (perceptions of voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption) and national under-5 mortality rates for 149 countries between 1996 and 2010. We applied a semi-parametric generalized additive mixed model to examine associations after controlling for the effects of development factors (urbanization level and economy), disease control factors (hygienic conditions and vaccination rates), health expenditures, air quality, and time. Governance, development, and disease control showed clear inverse relations with the under-5 mortality rate (p<0.001). Per unit increases in governance, development, and disease control factors, the child mortality rate had a 0.901-, 0.823-, and 0.922-fold decrease, respectively, at fixed levels of the other two factors. In the effort to reduce the global under-5 mortality rate, addressing a country's need for better governance is as important as improvements in development and disease control. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Fertility and Child Mortality in Urban West Africa: Leveraging geo-referenced data to move beyond the urban/rural dichotomy

PubMed Central

Corker, Jamaica

2016-01-01

Demographic research in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has long relied on a blunt urban/rural dichotomy that may obscure important inter-urban fertility and mortality differentials. This paper uses Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) geo-referenced data to look beyond the simple urban/rural division by spatially locating survey clusters along an urban continuum and producing estimates of fertility and child mortality by four city size categories in West Africa. Results show a gradient in urban characteristics and demographic outcomes: the largest cities are the most advantaged and smaller cities least advantaged with respect to access to urban amenities, lower fertility and under-5 survival rates. There is a difference in the patterns of fertility and under-five survival across urban categories, with fertility more linearly associated with city size while the only significant distinction for under-5 survival in urban areas is broadly between the larger and smaller cities. Notably, the small urban “satellite cities” that are adjacent to the largest cities have the most favorable outcomes of all categories. Although smaller urban areas have significantly lower fertility and child mortality than rural areas, in some cases this difference is nearly as large between the smallest and largest urban areas. These results are used to argue for the need to give greater consideration to employing an urban continuum in demographic research. PMID:28943812

The fourth delay and community-driven solutions to reduce maternal mortality in rural Haiti: a community-based action research study.

PubMed

MacDonald, Tonya; Jackson, Suzanne; Charles, Marie-Carmèle; Periel, Marius; Jean-Baptiste, Marie-Véna; Salomon, Alex; Premilus, Éveillard

2018-06-20

In Haiti, the number of women dying in pregnancy, during childbirth and the weeks after giving birth remains unacceptably high. The objective of this research was to explore determinants of maternal mortality in rural Haiti through Community-Based Action Research (CBAR), guided by the delays that lead to maternal death. This paper focuses on socioecological determinants of maternal mortality from the perspectives of women of near-miss maternal experiences and community members, and their solutions to reduce maternal mortality in their community. The study draws on five semi-structured Individual Interviews with women survivors of near-misses, and on four Focus Group Discussions with Community Leaders and with Traditional Birth Attendants. Data collection took place in July 2013. A Community Research Team within a resource-limited rural community in Haiti undertook the research. The methods and analysis process were guided by participatory research and CBAR. Participants identified three delays that lead to maternal death but also described a fourth delay with respect to community responsibility for maternal mortality. They included women being carried from the community to a healthcare facility as a special example of the fourth delay. Women survivors of near-miss maternal experiences and community leaders suggested solutions to reduce maternal death that centered on prevention and community infrastructure. Most of the strategies for action were related to the fourth delay and include: community mobilization by way of the formation of Neighbourhood Maternal Health/Well-being Committees, and community support through the provision/sharing of food for undernourished women, offering monetary support and establishment of a communication relay/transport system in times of crisis. Finding sustainable ways to reduce maternal mortality requires a community-based/centred and community-driven comprehensive approach to maternal health/well-being. This includes engagement of community members that is dependent upon community knowledge, political will, mobilization, accountability and empowerment. An engaged/empowered community is one that is well placed to find ways that work in their community to reduce the fourth delay and in turn, maternal death. Potentially, community ownership of challenges and solutions can lead to more sustainable improvements in maternal health/well-being in Haiti.

A Quantitative Threats Analysis for the Florida Manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runge, Michael C.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.

2007-01-01

The Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) is an endangered marine mammal endemic to the southeastern United States. The primary threats to manatee populations are collisions with watercraft and the potential loss of warm-water refuges. For the purposes of listing, recovery, and regulation under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), an understanding of the relative effects of the principal threats is needed. This work is a quantitative approach to threats analysis, grounded in the assumption that an appropriate measure of status under the ESA is based on the risk of extinction, as quantified by the probability of quasi-extinction. This is related to the qualitative threats analyses that are more common under the ESA, but provides an additional level of rigor, objectivity, and integration. In this approach, our philosophy is that analysis of the five threat factors described in Section 4(a)(1) of the ESA can be undertaken within an integrated quantitative framework. The basis of this threats analysis is a comparative population viability analysis. This involves forecasting the Florida manatee population under different scenarios regarding the presence of threats, while accounting for process variation (environmental, demographic, and catastrophic stochasticity) as well as parametric and structural uncertainty. We used the manatee core biological model (CBM) for this viability analysis, and considered the role of five threats: watercraft-related mortality, loss of warm-water habitat in winter, mortality in water-control structures, entanglement, and red tide. All scenarios were run with an underlying parallel structure that allowed a more powerful estimation of the effects of the various threats. The results reflect our understanding of manatee ecology (as captured in the structure of the CBM), our estimates of manatee demography (as described by the parameters in the model), and our characterization of the mechanisms by which the threats act on manatees. As an example of the type of results generated, we estimated that the probability of the manatee population falling to less than 250 adults on either the Atlantic or Gulf coasts (from a current statewide population size of near 3300) within 100 years is 8.6%. Complete removal of the watercraft threat alone would reduce this risk to 0.4%; complete removal of the warm-water threat to 4.2%; removal of both threats would reduce the risk to 0.1%. The modeling approach we have taken also allows us to consider partial removal of threats, as well as removal of multiple threats simultaneously. We believe the measure we have proposed (probability of quasi-extinction over y years, with quasi-extinction defined as dropping below a threshold of z on either coast) is a suitable measure of status that integrates a number of the elements that are relevant to interpretation under the ESA (it directly integrates risk of extinction and reduction of range, and indirectly integrates loss of genetic diversity). But the identification of the time frame of interest and the tolerable risk of quasi-extinction are policy decisions, and an ecology-based quasi-extinction threshold has not yet been determined. We have endeavored to provide results over a wide range of these parameters to give decision-makers useful information to assess status. This assessment of threats suggests that watercraft-related mortality is having the greatest impact on manatee population growth and resilience. Elimination of this single threat would greatly reduce the probability of quasi-extinction. Loss of warm-water is also a significant threat, particularly over the long-term. Red tide and entanglement, while noticeable threats, have had less of an impact on the manatee population. The effect of water control structures may have already been largely mitigated. We did not, however, consider an exhaustive list of threats. Other threats (e.g., reduction of food resources due to storms and development) may play a

[Streptococcal toxic shock syndrome: ten years' experience at a tertiary hospital].

PubMed

Vallalta-Morales, Manuel; Salavert-Lletí, Miguel; Artero-Mora, Arturo; Mahiques-Santos, Laura; Solaz-Moreno, Elena; Pérez-Bellés, Carmen

2005-11-01

In the last two decades there has been a reported increase in the incidence of streptococcal toxic shock syndrome (STSS). The objective of this study was to determine the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of this infection. Retrospective study of all cases of STSS diagnosed at a single tertiary hospital over the last ten years. We report 13 cases of STSS (8 men, mean age 62 years). The mean annual incidence was 0.19 episodes/100,000 population from 1994 to 1998 and 0.53 episodes/100,000 population from 1999 to 2003 (p = 0.059). All patients had at least one underlying disease and there were no intravenous drug users. The most common portals of entry were the skin and soft tissues (85%) and all but one patient had a positive blood culture. Two cases were nosocomial and five patients required surgery (amputation and/or debridement). There was a high mortality rate (85%) and a rapid course from onset to death; nine patients died within four days after establishing the diagnosis. The incidence of SSTS has increased over the last five years at our hospital. Elderly patients with underlying medical conditions were more susceptible to acquiring this infection. Early mortality was very high.

The effect of illicit financial flows on time to reach the fourth Millennium Development Goal in Sub-Saharan Africa: a quantitative analysis.

PubMed

O'Hare, Bernadette; Makuta, Innocent; Bar-Zeev, Naor; Chiwaula, Levison; Cobham, Alex

2014-04-01

This paper sets out to estimate the cost of illicit financial flows (IFF) in terms of the amount of time it could take to reach the fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG) in 34 African countries. We have calculated the percentage increase in gross domestic product (GDP) if IFFs were curtailed using IFF/GDP ratios. We applied the income (GDP) elasticity of child mortality to the increase in GDP to estimate the reduction in time to reach the fourth MDG in 34 African countries. children aged under five years. 34 countries in SSA. Reduction in time to reach the first indicator of the fourth MDG, under-five mortality rate in the absence of IFF. We found that in the 34 SSA countries, six countries will achieve their fourth MDG target at the current rates of decline. In the absence of IFF, 16 countries would reach their fourth MDG target by 2015 and there would be large reductions for all other countries. This drain on development is facilitated by financial secrecy in other jurisdictions. Rich and poor countries alike must stem the haemorrhage of IFF by taking decisive steps towards improving financial transparency.

Interannual variations in needle and sapwood traits of Pinus edulis branches under an experimental drought

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guerin, Marceau; Martin-Benito, Dario; von Arx, Georg

In recent years, widespread forest mortality in response to drought has been documented worldwide (Allen, Breshears & McDowell 2015). An example of widespread and rapid increase in drought-induced mortality, or die-off, was observed for Pinus edulis Engelm. across the Southwestern USA in response to several years of reduced rainfall and high vapor pressure deficits (VPD) (Breshears et al. 2009; Allen et al. 2010; Williams et al. 2013). Although stomatal closure under drought has been hypothesized to increase mortality through carbon starvation (McDowell et al. 2008; Breshears et al. 2009), more evidences exist for mortality being caused by hydraulic failure (Plautmore » et al. 2012; McDowell et al. 2013; Sevanto et al. 2014; Garcia-Forner et al. 2016). Regardless of the mechanism of drought-induced decline, maintaining a positive supply of water to the foliage is critical for tree functioning and survival.« less

Interannual variations in needle and sapwood traits of Pinus edulis branches under an experimental drought

DOE PAGES

Guerin, Marceau; Martin-Benito, Dario; von Arx, Georg; ...

2018-01-05

In recent years, widespread forest mortality in response to drought has been documented worldwide (Allen, Breshears & McDowell 2015). An example of widespread and rapid increase in drought-induced mortality, or die-off, was observed for Pinus edulis Engelm. across the Southwestern USA in response to several years of reduced rainfall and high vapor pressure deficits (VPD) (Breshears et al. 2009; Allen et al. 2010; Williams et al. 2013). Although stomatal closure under drought has been hypothesized to increase mortality through carbon starvation (McDowell et al. 2008; Breshears et al. 2009), more evidences exist for mortality being caused by hydraulic failure (Plautmore » et al. 2012; McDowell et al. 2013; Sevanto et al. 2014; Garcia-Forner et al. 2016). Regardless of the mechanism of drought-induced decline, maintaining a positive supply of water to the foliage is critical for tree functioning and survival.« less

The effect of maternal child marriage on morbidity and mortality of children under 5 in India: cross sectional study of a nationally representative sample

PubMed Central

Saggurti, Niranjan; Winter, Michael; Labonte, Alan; Decker, Michele R; Balaiah, Donta; Silverman, Jay G

2010-01-01

Objective To assess associations between maternal child marriage (marriage before age 18) and morbidity and mortality of infants and children under 5 in India. Design Cross-sectional analyses of nationally representative household sample. Generalised estimating equation models constructed to assess associations. Adjusted models included maternal and child demographics and maternal body mass index as covariates. Setting India. Population Women aged 15-49 years (n=124 385); data collected in 2005-6 through National Family Health Survey-3. Data about child morbidity and mortality reported by participants. Analyses restricted to births in past five years reported by ever married women aged 15-24 years (n=19 302 births to 13 396 mothers). Main outcome measures In under 5s: mortality related infectious diseases in the past two weeks (acute respiratory infection, diarrhoea); malnutrition (stunting, wasting, underweight); infant (age <1 year) and child (1-5 years) mortality; low birth weight (<2500 kg). Results The majority of births (73%; 13 042/19 302) were to mothers married as minors. Although bivariate analyses showed significant associations between maternal child marriage and infant and child diarrhoea, malnutrition (stunted, wasted, underweight), low birth weight, and mortality, only stunting (adjusted odds ratio 1.22, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.33) and underweight (1.24, 1.14 to 1.36) remained significant in adjusted analyses. We noted no effect of maternal child marriage on health of boys versus girls. Conclusions The risk of malnutrition is higher in young children born to mothers married as minors than in those born to women married at a majority age. Further research should examine how early marriage affects food distribution and access for children in India. PMID:20093277

Social and Demographic Factors Associated with Morbidities in Young Children in Egypt: A Bayesian Geo-Additive Semi-Parametric Multinomial Model.

PubMed

Khatab, Khaled; Adegboye, Oyelola; Mohammed, Taofeeq Ibn

2016-01-01

Globally, the burden of mortality in children, especially in poor developing countries, is alarming and has precipitated concern and calls for concerted efforts in combating such health problems. Examples of diseases that contribute to this burden of mortality include diarrhoea, cough, fever, and the overlap between these illnesses, causing childhood morbidity and mortality. To gain insight into these health issues, we employed the 2008 Demographic and Health Survey Data of Egypt, which recorded details from 10,872 children under five. This data focused on the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of household members. We applied a Bayesian multinomial model to assess the area-specific spatial effects and risk factors of co-morbidity of fever, diarrhoea and cough for children under the age of five. The results showed that children under 20 months of age were more likely to have the three diseases (OR: 6.8; 95% CI: 4.6-10.2) than children between 20 and 40 months (OR: 2.14; 95% CI: 1.38-3.3). In multivariate Bayesian geo-additive models, the children of mothers who were over 20 years of age were more likely to have only cough (OR: 1.2; 95% CI: 0.9-1.5) and only fever (OR: 1.2; 95% CI: 0.91-1.51) compared with their counterparts. Spatial results showed that the North-eastern region of Egypt has a higher incidence than most of other regions. This study showed geographic patterns of Egyptian governorates in the combined prevalence of morbidity among Egyptian children. It is obvious that the Nile Delta, Upper Egypt, and south-eastern Egypt have high rates of diseases and are more affected. Therefore, more attention is needed in these areas.

Temperature extremes reduce seagrass growth and induce mortality.

PubMed

Collier, C J; Waycott, M

2014-06-30

Extreme heating (up to 43 °C measured from five-year temperature records) occurs in shallow coastal seagrass meadows of the Great Barrier Reef at low tide. We measured effective quantum yield (ϕPSII), growth, senescence and mortality in four tropical seagrasses to experimental short-duration (2.5h) spikes in water temperature to 35 °C, 40 °C and 43 °C, for 6 days followed by one day at ambient temperature. Increasing temperature to 35 °C had positive effects on ϕPSII (the magnitude varied between days and was highly correlated with PPFD), with no effects on growth or mortality. 40 °C represented a critical threshold as there were strong species differences and there was a large impact on growth and mortality. At 43 °C there was complete mortality after 2-3 days. These findings indicate that increasing duration (more days in a row) of thermal events above 40 °C is likely to affect the ecological function of tropical seagrass meadows. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

National and regional under-5 mortality rate by economic status for low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic assessment.

PubMed

Chao, Fengqing; You, Danzhen; Pedersen, Jon; Hug, Lucia; Alkema, Leontine

2018-05-01

The progress to achieve the fourth Millennium Development Goal in reducing mortality rate in children younger than 5 years since 1990 has been remarkable. However, work remains to be done in the Sustainable Development Goal era. Estimates of under-5 mortality rates at the national level can hide disparities within countries. We assessed disparities in under-5 mortality rates by household economic status in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We estimated country-year-specific under-5 mortality rates by wealth quintile on the basis of household wealth indices for 137 LMICs from 1990 to 2016, using a Bayesian statistical model. We estimated the association between quintile-specific and national-level under-5 mortality rates. We assessed the levels and trends of absolute and relative disparity in under-5 mortality rate between the poorest and richest quintiles, and among all quintiles. In 2016, for all LMICs (excluding China), the aggregated under-5 mortality rate was 64·6 (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 61·1-70·1) deaths per 1000 livebirths in the poorest households (first quintile), 31·3 (29·5-34·2) deaths per 1000 livebirths in the richest households (fifth quintile), and in between those outcomes for the middle quintiles. Between 1990 and 2016, the largest absolute decline in under-5 mortality rate occurred in the two poorest quintiles: 77·6 (90% UI 71·2-82·6) deaths per 1000 livebirths in the poorest quintile and 77·9 (72·0-82·2) deaths per 1000 livebirths in the second poorest quintile. The difference in under-5 mortality rate between the poorest and richest quintiles decreased significantly by 38·8 (90% UI 32·9-43·8) deaths per 1000 livebirths between 1990 and 2016. The poorest to richest under-5 mortality rate ratio, however, remained similar (2·03 [90% UI 1·94-2·11] in 1990, 1·99 [1·91-2·08] in 2000, and 2·06 [1·92-2·20] in 2016). During 1990-2016, around half of the total under-5 deaths occurred in the poorest two quintiles (48·5% in 1990 and 2000, 49·5% in 2016) and less than a third were in the richest two quintiles (30·4% in 1990, 30·5% in 2000, 29·9% in 2016). For all regions, differences in the under-5 mortality rate between the first and fifth quintiles decreased significantly, ranging from 20·6 (90% UI 15·9-25·1) deaths per 1000 livebirths in eastern Europe and central Asia to 59·5 (48·5-70·4) deaths per 1000 livebirths in south Asia. In 2016, the ratios of under-5 mortality rate in the first quintile to under-5 mortality rate in the fifth quintile were significantly above 2·00 in two regions, with 2·49 (90% UI 2·15-2·87) in east Asia and Pacific (excluding China) and 2·41 (2·05-2·80) in south Asia. Eastern and southern Africa had the smallest ratio in 2016 at 1·62 (90% UI 1·48-1·76). Our model suggested that the expected ratio of under-5 mortality rate in the first quintile to under-5 mortality rate in the fifth quintile increases as national-level under-5 mortality rate decreases. For all LMICs (excluding China) combined, the absolute disparities in under-5 mortality rate between the poorest and richest households have narrowed significantly since 1990, whereas the relative differences have remained stable. To further narrow the rich-and-poor gap in under-5 mortality rate on the relative scale, targeted interventions that focus on the poorest populations are needed. National University of Singapore, UN Children's Fund, United States Agency for International Development, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The relationship between prior suicidal behavior and mortality among individuals in community corrections.

PubMed

Clark, C Brendan; Waesche, Matthew C; Hendricks, Peter S; McCullumsmith, Cheryl B; Redmond, Nicole; Katiyar, Nandan; Lawler, Robert Marsh; Cropsey, Karen L

2013-01-01

Individuals under community corrections have multiple risk factors for mortality including exposure to a criminal environment, drug use, social stress, and a lack of medical care that predispose them to accidents, homicides, medical morbidities, and suicide. The literature suggests that prior suicidal behavior may be a particularly potent risk factor for mortality among individuals in the criminal justice system. This study looked to extend the link between history of a suicide attempt and future mortality in a community corrections population. Using an archival dataset (N = 18,260) collected from 2002 to 2007 of individuals being monitored under community corrections supervision for an average of 217 days (SD = 268), we examined the association between past history of a suicide attempt and mortality. A Cox Proportional Hazard Model controlling for age, race, gender, and substance dependence indicated that past history of a suicide attempt was independently associated with time to mortality, and demonstrated the second greatest effect after gender. These data suggest the need for a greater focus on screening and preventive services, particularly for individuals with a history of suicidal behavior, so as to reduce the risk of mortality in community corrections populations.

Systems and WBANs for Controlling Obesity

PubMed Central

Mohammed, Maali Said; Sendra, Sandra

2018-01-01

According to World Health Organization (WHO) estimations, one out of five adults worldwide will be obese by 2025. Worldwide obesity has doubled since 1980. In fact, more than 1.9 billion adults (39%) of 18 years and older were overweight and over 600 million (13%) of these were obese in 2014. 42 million children under the age of five were overweight or obese in 2014. Obesity is a top public health problem due to its associated morbidity and mortality. This paper reviews the main techniques to measure the level of obesity and body fat percentage, and explains the complications that can carry to the individual's quality of life, longevity and the significant cost of healthcare systems. Researchers and developers are adapting the existing technology, as intelligent phones or some wearable gadgets to be used for controlling obesity. They include the promoting of healthy eating culture and adopting the physical activity lifestyle. The paper also shows a comprehensive study of the most used mobile applications and Wireless Body Area Networks focused on controlling the obesity and overweight. Finally, this paper proposes an intelligent architecture that takes into account both, physiological and cognitive aspects to reduce the degree of obesity and overweight. PMID:29599941

Systems and WBANs for Controlling Obesity.

PubMed

Mohammed, Maali Said; Sendra, Sandra; Lloret, Jaime; Bosch, Ignacio

2018-01-01

According to World Health Organization (WHO) estimations, one out of five adults worldwide will be obese by 2025. Worldwide obesity has doubled since 1980. In fact, more than 1.9 billion adults (39%) of 18 years and older were overweight and over 600 million (13%) of these were obese in 2014. 42 million children under the age of five were overweight or obese in 2014. Obesity is a top public health problem due to its associated morbidity and mortality. This paper reviews the main techniques to measure the level of obesity and body fat percentage, and explains the complications that can carry to the individual's quality of life, longevity and the significant cost of healthcare systems. Researchers and developers are adapting the existing technology, as intelligent phones or some wearable gadgets to be used for controlling obesity. They include the promoting of healthy eating culture and adopting the physical activity lifestyle. The paper also shows a comprehensive study of the most used mobile applications and Wireless Body Area Networks focused on controlling the obesity and overweight. Finally, this paper proposes an intelligent architecture that takes into account both, physiological and cognitive aspects to reduce the degree of obesity and overweight.

Trends, causes, and risk factors of mortality among children under 5 in Ethiopia, 1990-2013: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

PubMed

Deribew, Amare; Tessema, Gizachew Assefa; Deribe, Kebede; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Lakew, Yihunie; Amare, Azmeraw T; Abera, Semaw F; Mohammed, Mesoud; Hiruye, Abiy; Teklay, Efrem; Misganaw, Awoke; Kassebaum, Nicholas

2016-01-01

Ethiopia has made remarkable progress in reducing child mortality over the last two decades. However, the under-5 mortality rate in Ethiopia is still higher than the under-5 mortality rates of several low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). On the other hand, the patterns and causes of child mortality have not been well investigated in Ethiopia. The objective of this study was to investigate the mortality trend, causes of death, and risk factors among children under 5 in Ethiopia during 1990-2013. We used Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 data. Spatiotemporal Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) was applied to generate best estimates of child mortality with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). Causes of death by age groups, sex, and year were measured using Cause of Death Ensemble modeling (CODEm). For estimation of HIV/AIDS mortality rate, the modified UNAIDS EPP-SPECTRUM suite model was used. Between 1990 and 2013 the under-5 mortality rate declined from 203.9 deaths/1000 live births to 74.4 deaths/1000 live births with an annual rate of change of 4.6%, yielding a total reduction of 64%. Similarly, child (1-4 years), post-neonatal, and neonatal mortality rates declined by 75%, 64%, and 52%, respectively, between 1990 and 2013. Lower respiratory tract infection (LRI), diarrheal diseases, and neonatal syndromes (preterm birth complications, neonatal encephalopathy, neonatal sepsis, and other neonatal disorders) accounted for 54% of the total under-5 deaths in 2013. Under-5 mortality rates due to measles, diarrhea, malaria, protein-energy malnutrition, and iron-deficiency anemia declined by more than two-thirds between 1990 and 2013. Among the causes of under-5 deaths, neonatal syndromes such as sepsis, preterm birth complications, and birth asphyxia ranked third to fifth in 2013. Of all risk-attributable deaths in 1990, 25% of the total under-5 deaths (112,288/435,962) and 48% (112,288/232,199) of the deaths due to diarrhea, LRI, and other common infections were attributable to childhood wasting. Similarly, 19% (43,759/229,333) of the total under-5 deaths and 45% (43,759/97,963) of the deaths due to diarrhea and LRI were attributable to wasting in 2013. Of the total diarrheal disease- and LRI-related deaths ( n  = 97,963) in 2013, 59% (57,923/97,963) of them were attributable to unsafe water supply, unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, and no handwashing with soap. LRI, diarrheal diseases, and neonatal syndromes remain the major causes of under-5 deaths in Ethiopia. These findings call for better-integrated newborn and child survival interventions focusing on the main risk factors.

Malnutrition related deaths.

PubMed

Sparre-Sørensen, Maja; Kristensen, Gustav N

2016-10-01

Studies have shown that malnutrition increases the risk of morbidity, mortality, the length of hospital stay, and costs in the elderly population. Approximately one third of all patients admitted to geriatric wards in Denmark are malnourished according to the Danish Geriatric database. The aim of this study is to describe and examine the sudden increase in deaths due to malnutrition in the elderly population in Denmark from 1999 and, similarly, the sudden decline in malnutrition related deaths in 2007. A descriptive epidemiologic study was performed. All Danes listed in the national death registry who died from malnutrition in the period from 1994 to 2012 are included. The number of deaths from malnutrition increased significantly during the period from 1999 to 2007, especially in the age group 70 years and over. Additionally, we document a surprising similarity between the development in excess mortality from malnutrition in the five Danish regions during the same period. During the period 1999-2007 malnutrition was the direct cause of 340 extra deaths, and probably ten times more registered under other diseases. This development in excess mortality runs parallel in all five Danish regions over time. Copyright © 2016 European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Individual and community determinants of neonatal mortality in Ghana: a multilevel analysis.

PubMed

Kayode, Gbenga A; Ansah, Evelyn; Agyepong, Irene Akua; Amoakoh-Coleman, Mary; Grobbee, Diederick E; Klipstein-Grobusch, Kerstin

2014-05-12

Neonatal mortality is a global challenge; identification of individual and community determinants associated with it are important for targeted interventions. However in most low and middle income countries (LMICs) including Ghana this problem has not been adequately investigated as the impact of contextual factors remains undetermined despite their significant influence on under-five mortality and morbidity. Based on a modified conceptual framework for child survival, hierarchical modelling was deployed to examine about 6,900 women, aged 15 - 49 years (level 1), nested within 412 communities (level 2) in Ghana by analysing combined data of the 2003 and 2008 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey. The aim was to identify individual (maternal, paternal, neonatal, antenatal, delivery and postnatal) and community (socioeconomic disadvantage communities) determinants associated with neonatal mortality. The results showed both individual and community characteristics to be associated with neonatal mortality. Infants of multiple-gestation [OR 5.30; P-value < 0.001; 95% CI 2.81 - 10.00], neonates with inadequate birth spacing [OR 3.47; P-value < 0.01; 95% CI 1.60 - 7.57] and low birth weight [OR 2.01; P-value < 0.01; 95% CI 1.23 - 3.30] had a lower chance of surviving the neonatal period. Similarly, infants of grand multiparous mothers [OR 2.59; P-value < 0.05; 95% CI 1.03 - 6.49] and non-breastfed infants [OR 142.31; P-value < 0.001; 95% CI 80.19 - 252.54] were more likely to die during neonatal life, whereas adequate utilization of antenatal, delivery and postnatal health services [OR 0.25; P-value < 0.001; 95% CI 0.13 - 0.46] reduced the likelihood of neonatal mortality. Dwelling in a neighbourhood with high socioeconomic deprivation was associated with increased neonatal mortality [OR 3.38; P-value < 0.01; 95% CI 1.42 - 8.04]. Both individual and community characteristics show a marked impact on neonatal survival. Implementation of community-based interventions addressing basic education, poverty alleviation, women empowerment and infrastructural development and an increased focus on the continuum-of-care approach in healthcare service will improve neonatal survival.

CDC Grand Rounds: Improving Medication Adherence for Chronic Disease Management - Innovations and Opportunities.

PubMed

Neiman, Andrea B; Ruppar, Todd; Ho, Michael; Garber, Larry; Weidle, Paul J; Hong, Yuling; George, Mary G; Thorpe, Phoebe G

2017-11-17

Adherence to prescribed medications is associated with improved clinical outcomes for chronic disease management and reduced mortality from chronic conditions (1). Conversely, nonadherence is associated with higher rates of hospital admissions, suboptimal health outcomes, increased morbidity and mortality, and increased health care costs (2). In the United States, 3.8 billion prescriptions are written annually (3). Approximately one in five new prescriptions are never filled, and among those filled, approximately 50% are taken incorrectly, particularly with regard to timing, dosage, frequency, and duration (4). Whereas rates of nonadherence across the United States have remained relatively stable, direct health care costs associated with nonadherence have grown to approximately $100-$300 billion of U.S. health care dollars spent annually (5,6). Improving medication adherence is a public health priority and could reduce the economic and health burdens of many diseases and chronic conditions (7).

Increased susceptibility to drought-induced mortality in Sequoia sempervirens (Cupressaceae) trees under Cenozoic atmospheric carbon dioxide starvation.

PubMed

Quirk, Joe; McDowell, Nate G; Leake, Jonathan R; Hudson, Patrick J; Beerling, David J

2013-03-01

Climate-induced forest retreat has profound ecological and biogeochemical impacts, but the physiological mechanisms underlying past tree mortality are poorly understood, limiting prediction of vegetation shifts with climate variation. Climate, drought, fire, and grazing represent agents of tree mortality during the late Cenozoic, but the interaction between drought and declining atmospheric carbon dioxide ([CO2]a) from high to near-starvation levels ∼34 million years (Ma) ago has been overlooked. Here, this interaction frames our investigation of sapling mortality through the interdependence of hydraulic function, carbon limitation, and defense metabolism. • We recreated a changing Cenozoic [CO2]a regime by growing Sequoia sempervirens trees within climate-controlled growth chambers at 1500, 500, or 200 ppm [CO2]a, capturing the decline toward minimum concentrations from 34 Ma. After 7 months, we imposed drought conditions and measured key physiological components linking carbon utilization, hydraulics, and defense metabolism as hypothesized interdependent mechanisms of tree mortality. • Catastrophic failure of hydraulic conductivity, carbohydrate starvation, and tree death occurred at 200 ppm, but not 500 or 1500 ppm [CO2]a. Furthermore, declining [CO2]a reduced investment in carbon-rich foliar defense compounds that would diminish resistance to biotic attack, likely exacerbating mortality. • Low-[CO2]a-driven tree mortality under drought is consistent with Pleistocene pollen records charting repeated Californian Sequoia forest contraction during glacial periods (180-200 ppm [CO2]a) and may even have contributed to forest retreat as grasslands expanded on multiple continents under low [CO2]a over the past 10 Ma. In this way, geologic intervals of low [CO2]a coupled with drought could impose a demographic bottleneck in tree recruitment, driving vegetation shifts through forest mortality.

A Panel Analysis of the Strategic Association Between Information and Communication Technology and Public Health Delivery

PubMed Central

Wu, Sarah Jinhui

2012-01-01

Background In this exploratory research, we use panel data analysis to examine the correlation between Information and Communication Technology (ICTs) and public health delivery at the country level. Objective The goal of this exploratory research is to examine the strategic association over time between ICTs and country-level public health. Methods Using data from the World Development Indicators, we construct a panel data set of countries of five different income levels and look closely at the period from 2000 to 2008. The panel data analysis allows us to explore this dynamic relationship under the control for unobserved country-specific effects by using a fixed-effects estimation method. In particular,, we examine the association of five ICT factors with five public health indicators: adolescent fertility rate, child immunization coverage, tuberculosis case detected, life expectancy, and adult mortality rate. Results First, overall ICTs’ factors substantially improve a country’s public health delivery on the top of wealth effect. Second, among all the ICTs’ factors, accessibility is the only one that is associated with improvements in all aspects of public health delivery, while the contributions from the usage, quality, and applications are negligible. ICTs’ accessibility factor is associated with a considerable extension to life expectancy and reduced adult mortality rate. Third, all entity-specific factors are significant in each model, indicating that countries’ economic development level does influence their public health delivery. Conclusions Our results indicate that ICT accessibility has a strong association with effective delivery of public health. There are others, but the key strategic applications are eHealth and mHealth. The findings of this study will help government officials and public health policy makers to formulate strategic decisions regarding the best ICT investments and deployment. For example, the study shows that providing accessibility should be a critical focus. PMID:23089193

Space-Time Smoothing of Complex Survey Data: Small Area Estimation for Child Mortality.

PubMed

Mercer, Laina D; Wakefield, Jon; Pantazis, Athena; Lutambi, Angelina M; Masanja, Honorati; Clark, Samuel

2015-12-01

Many people living in low and middle-income countries are not covered by civil registration and vital statistics systems. Consequently, a wide variety of other types of data including many household sample surveys are used to estimate health and population indicators. In this paper we combine data from sample surveys and demographic surveillance systems to produce small area estimates of child mortality through time. Small area estimates are necessary to understand geographical heterogeneity in health indicators when full-coverage vital statistics are not available. For this endeavor spatio-temporal smoothing is beneficial to alleviate problems of data sparsity. The use of conventional hierarchical models requires careful thought since the survey weights may need to be considered to alleviate bias due to non-random sampling and non-response. The application that motivated this work is estimation of child mortality rates in five-year time intervals in regions of Tanzania. Data come from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted over the period 1991-2010 and two demographic surveillance system sites. We derive a variance estimator of under five years child mortality that accounts for the complex survey weighting. For our application, the hierarchical models we consider include random effects for area, time and survey and we compare models using a variety of measures including the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO). The method we propose is implemented via the fast and accurate integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA).

Potential confounding in the association between short birth intervals and increased neonatal, infant, and child mortality

PubMed Central

Perin, Jamie; Walker, Neff

2015-01-01

Background Recent steep declines in child mortality have been attributed in part to increased use of contraceptives and the resulting change in fertility behaviour, including an increase in the time between births. Previous observational studies have documented strong associations between short birth spacing and an increase in the risk of neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality, compared to births with longer preceding birth intervals. In this analysis, we compare two methods to estimate the association between short birth intervals and mortality risk to better inform modelling efforts linking family planning and mortality in children. Objectives Our goal was to estimate the mortality risk for neonates, infants, and young children by preceding birth space using household survey data, controlling for mother-level factors and to compare the results to those from previous analyses with survey data. Design We assessed the potential for confounding when estimating the relative mortality risk by preceding birth interval and estimated mortality risk by birth interval in four categories: less than 18 months, 18–23 months, 24–35 months, and 36 months or longer. We estimated the relative risks among women who were 35 and older at the time of the survey with two methods: in a Cox proportional hazards regression adjusting for potential confounders and also by stratifying Cox regression by mother, to control for all factors that remain constant over a woman's childbearing years. We estimated the overall effects for birth spacing in a meta-analysis with random survey effects. Results We identified several factors known for their associations with neonatal, infant, and child mortality that are also associated with preceding birth interval. When estimating the effect of birth spacing on mortality, we found that regression adjustment for these factors does not substantially change the risk ratio for short birth intervals compared to an unadjusted mortality ratio. For birth intervals less than 18 months, standard regression adjustment for confounding factors estimated a risk ratio for neonatal mortality of 2.28 (95% confidence interval: 2.18–2.37). This same effect estimated within mother is 1.57 (95% confidence interval: 1.52–1.63), a decline of almost one-third in the effect on neonatal mortality. Conclusions Neonatal, infant, and child mortality are strongly and significantly related to preceding birth interval, where births within a short interval of time after the previous birth have increased mortality. Previous analyses have demonstrated this relationship on average across all births; however, women who have short spaces between births are different from women with long spaces. Among women 35 years and older where a comparison of birth spaces within mother is possible, we find a much reduced although still significant effect of short birth spaces on child mortality. PMID:26562139

Potential confounding in the association between short birth intervals and increased neonatal, infant, and child mortality.

PubMed

Perin, Jamie; Walker, Neff

2015-01-01

Recent steep declines in child mortality have been attributed in part to increased use of contraceptives and the resulting change in fertility behaviour, including an increase in the time between births. Previous observational studies have documented strong associations between short birth spacing and an increase in the risk of neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality, compared to births with longer preceding birth intervals. In this analysis, we compare two methods to estimate the association between short birth intervals and mortality risk to better inform modelling efforts linking family planning and mortality in children. Our goal was to estimate the mortality risk for neonates, infants, and young children by preceding birth space using household survey data, controlling for mother-level factors and to compare the results to those from previous analyses with survey data. We assessed the potential for confounding when estimating the relative mortality risk by preceding birth interval and estimated mortality risk by birth interval in four categories: less than 18 months, 18-23 months, 24-35 months, and 36 months or longer. We estimated the relative risks among women who were 35 and older at the time of the survey with two methods: in a Cox proportional hazards regression adjusting for potential confounders and also by stratifying Cox regression by mother, to control for all factors that remain constant over a woman's childbearing years. We estimated the overall effects for birth spacing in a meta-analysis with random survey effects. We identified several factors known for their associations with neonatal, infant, and child mortality that are also associated with preceding birth interval. When estimating the effect of birth spacing on mortality, we found that regression adjustment for these factors does not substantially change the risk ratio for short birth intervals compared to an unadjusted mortality ratio. For birth intervals less than 18 months, standard regression adjustment for confounding factors estimated a risk ratio for neonatal mortality of 2.28 (95% confidence interval: 2.18-2.37). This same effect estimated within mother is 1.57 (95% confidence interval: 1.52-1.63), a decline of almost one-third in the effect on neonatal mortality. Neonatal, infant, and child mortality are strongly and significantly related to preceding birth interval, where births within a short interval of time after the previous birth have increased mortality. Previous analyses have demonstrated this relationship on average across all births; however, women who have short spaces between births are different from women with long spaces. Among women 35 years and older where a comparison of birth spaces within mother is possible, we find a much reduced although still significant effect of short birth spaces on child mortality.

Safety-net hospitals more likely than other hospitals to fare poorly under Medicare's value-based purchasing.

PubMed

Gilman, Matlin; Adams, E Kathleen; Hockenberry, Jason M; Milstein, Arnold S; Wilson, Ira B; Becker, Edmund R

2015-03-01

Medicare's value-based purchasing (VBP) program potentially puts safety-net hospitals at a financial disadvantage compared to other hospitals. In 2014, the second year of the program, patient mortality measures were added to the VBP program's algorithm for assigning penalties and rewards. We examined whether the inclusion of mortality measures in the second year of the program had a disproportionate impact on safety-net hospitals nationally. We found that safety-net hospitals were more likely than other hospitals to be penalized under the VBP program as a result of their poorer performance on process and patient experience scores. In 2014, 63 percent of safety-net hospitals versus 51 percent of all other sample hospitals received payment rate reductions under the program. However, safety-net hospitals' performance on mortality measures was comparable to that of other hospitals, with an average VBP survival score of thirty-two versus thirty-one among other hospitals. Although safety-net hospitals are still more likely than other hospitals to fare poorly under the VBP program, increasing the weight given to mortality in the VBP payment algorithm would reduce this disadvantage. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Comparison of the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score and the Glasgow Coma Scale in predicting mortality in critically ill patients*.

PubMed

Wijdicks, Eelco F M; Kramer, Andrew A; Rohs, Thomas; Hanna, Susan; Sadaka, Farid; O'Brien, Jacklyn; Bible, Shonna; Dickess, Stacy M; Foss, Michelle

2015-02-01

Impaired consciousness has been incorporated in prediction models that are used in the ICU. The Glasgow Coma Scale has value but is incomplete and cannot be assessed in intubated patients accurately. The Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score may be a better predictor of mortality in critically ill patients. Thirteen ICUs at five U.S. hospitals. One thousand six hundred ninety-five consecutive unselected ICU admissions during a six-month period in 2012. Glasgow Coma Scale and Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score were recorded within 1 hour of admission. Baseline characteristics and physiologic components of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation system, as well as mortality were linked to Glasgow Coma Scale/Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score information. None. We recruited 1,695 critically ill patients, of which 1,645 with complete data could be linked to data in the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation system. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of predicting ICU mortality using the Glasgow Coma Scale was 0.715 (95% CI, 0.663-0.768) and using the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score was 0.742 (95% CI, 0.694-0.790), statistically different (p = 0.001). A similar but nonsignificant difference was found for predicting hospital mortality (p = 0.078). The respiratory and brainstem reflex components of the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score showed a much wider range of mortality than the verbal component of Glasgow Coma Scale. In multivariable models, the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score was more useful than the Glasgow Coma Scale for predicting mortality. The Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score might be a better prognostic tool of ICU mortality than the Glasgow Coma Scale in critically ill patients, most likely a result of incorporating brainstem reflexes and respiration into the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score.

Sociodemographic Determinants of Malaria among Under-Five Children in Ghana.

PubMed

Nyarko, Samuel Harrenson; Cobblah, Anastasia

2014-01-01

Background. Malaria is an entrenched global health challenge particularly in the sub-Saharan African countries. However, in Ghana, little is known about the determinants of malaria prevalence among under-five children. As such, this study sought to examine the sociodemographic factors that determine malaria among under-five children in Ghana. Methods. This paper used secondary data drawn from the 2008 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey. Bivariate analysis and complementary log-log regression models were used to examine the determinants of malaria prevalence among under-five children in Ghana for the study period. Results. The results therefore revealed that region of residence, age of child, and ownership of mosquito net were the key predictors of malaria cases among under-five children in Ghana for the five-year period preceding the survey. Conclusion. It is therefore imperative that special education on prevention of malaria should be intensified by the National Malaria Control Programme in all the regions in order to reduce malaria prevalence particularly among under-five children in Ghana.

What can Pakistan do to address maternal and child health over the next decade?

PubMed

Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Hafeez, Assad

2015-11-25

Pakistan faces huge challenges in meeting its international obligations and agreed Millennium Development Goal targets for reducing maternal and child mortality. While there have been reductions in maternal and under-5 child mortality, overall rates are barely above secular trends and neonatal mortality has not reduced much. Progress in addressing basic determinants, such as poverty, undernutrition, safe water, and sound sanitary conditions as well as female education, is unsatisfactory and, not surprisingly, population growth hampers economic growth and development across the country. The devolution of health to the provinces has created challenges as well as opportunities for action. This paper presents a range of actions needed for change within the health and social sectors, including primary care, social determinants, strategies to reach the unreached, and accountability.

United States Renal Data System public health surveillance of chronic kidney disease and end-stage renal disease.

PubMed

Collins, Allan J; Foley, Robert N; Gilbertson, David T; Chen, Shu-Cheng

2015-06-01

The United States Renal Data System (USRDS) began in 1989 through US Congressional authorization under National Institutes of Health competitive contracting. Its history includes five contract periods, two of 5 years, two of 7.5 years, and the fifth, awarded in February 2014, of 5 years. Over these 25 years, USRDS reporting transitioned from basic incidence and prevalence of end-stage renal disease (ESRD), modalities, and overall survival, as well as focused special studies on dialysis, in the first two contract periods to a comprehensive assessment of aspects of care that affect morbidity and mortality in the second two periods. Beginning in 1999, the Minneapolis Medical Research Foundation investigative team transformed the USRDS into a total care reporting system including disease severity, hospitalizations, pediatric populations, prescription drug use, and chronic kidney disease and the transition to ESRD. Areas of focus included issues related to death rates in the first 4 months of treatment, sudden cardiac death, ischemic and valvular heart disease, congestive heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and infectious complications (particularly related to dialysis catheters) in hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis patients; the burden of congestive heart failure and infectious complications in pediatric dialysis and transplant populations; and morbidity and access to care. The team documented a plateau and decline in incidence rates, a 28% decline in death rates since 2001, and changes under the 2011 Prospective Payment System with expanded bundled payments for each dialysis treatment. The team reported on Bayesian methods to calculate mortality ratios, which reduce the challenges of traditional methods, and introduced objectives under the Health People 2010 and 2020 national health care goals for kidney disease.

Detection of early warning signals of forest mortality in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Kumar, M.; Katul, G. G.; Porporato, A. M.

2017-12-01

Massive forest mortality was observed in California during the most recent drought. Owing to complex interactions of physiological mechanisms under stress, prediction of climate-induced forest mortality using dynamic global vegetation models remains fraught with uncertainty. Given that forest ecosystems approaching mortality tend to exhibit reduction in resilience, we evaluate the time-varying resilience from time series of satellite images to detect early warning signals (EWSs) of mortality. Four metrics of EWSs are used: (1) low greenness, (2) high empirical autocorrelation of greenness, (3) high autocorrelation inferred using a Bayesian dynamic linear model considering the influence of seasonality and climate conditions, and (4) low recovery rate inferred from the drift term in the Langevin equation describing stochastic dynamics. Spatial accuracy and lead-time of these EWSs are evaluated by comparing the EWSs against observed mortality from aerial surveys conducted by the US Forest Service. Our results show that most forested areas in California that underwent mortality exhibit a EWS with a lead time of three months to two years ahead of observed mortality. Notably, EWS is also detected in some areas without mortality, suggesting reduced resilience during drought. Furthermore, the influence of the previous drought (2007-2009) may have propagated into the recent drought (2012-2016) through reduced resilience, hence contributing to the massive forest mortality observed recently. Methodologies developed in this study for detection of EWS will improve the near-term predictability of forest mortality, thus providing crucial information for forest and water resource management.

Micronutrient supplementation has limited effects on intestinal infectious disease and mortality in a Zambian population of mixed HIV status: a cluster randomized trial1-3

PubMed Central

Kelly, Paul; Katubulushi, Max; Todd, Jim; Banda, Rose; Yambayamba, Vera; Fwoloshi, Mildred; Zulu, Isaac; Kafwembe, Emmanuel; Yavwa, Felistah; Sanderson, Ian R; Tomkins, Andrew

2009-01-01

Background: Diarrheal disease remains a major contributor to morbidity and mortality in Africa, but host defense against intestinal infection is poorly understood and may depend on nutritional status. Objective: To test the hypothesis that defense against intestinal infection depends on micronutrient status, we undertook a randomized controlled trial of multiple micronutrient supplementation in a population where there is borderline micronutrient deficiency. Design: All consenting adults (≥18 y) living in a carefully defined sector of Misisi, Lusaka, Zambia, were included in a cluster-randomized (by household), double-blind, placebo-controlled trial with a midpoint crossover. There were no exclusion criteria. Participants were given a daily tablet containing 15 micronutrients at just above the recommended nutrient intake or placebo. The primary endpoint was the incidence of diarrhea; secondary endpoints were severe episodes of diarrhea, respiratory infection, nutritional status, CD4 count, and mortality. Results: Five hundred participants were recruited and followed up for 3.3 y (10 846 person-months). The primary endpoint, incidence of diarrhea (1.4 episodes/y per person), did not differ with treatment allocation. However, severe episodes of diarrhea were reduced in the supplementation group (odds ratio: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.26, 0.92; P = 0.017). Mortality was reduced in HIV-positive participants from 12 with placebo to 4 with supplementation (P = 0.029 by log-rank test), but this was not due to changes in CD4 count or nutritional status. Conclusion: Micronutrient supplementation with this formulation resulted in only modest reductions in severe diarrhea and reduced mortality in HIV-positive participants. The trial was registered as ISRCTN31173864. PMID:18842788

Is early measles vaccination better than later measles vaccination?

PubMed

Aaby, Peter; Martins, Cesário L; Ravn, Henrik; Rodrigues, Amabelia; Whittle, Hilton C; Benn, Christine S

2015-01-01

WHO recommends delaying measles vaccination (MV) until maternal antibody has waned. However, early MV may improve child survival by reducing mortality from conditions other than measles infection. We tested whether early MV improves child survival compared with later MV. We found 43 studies comparing measles-vaccinated and measles-unvaccinated children; however, only 16 studies had specific information that MV had been provided at 4-13 months of age, many before 9 months of age. In the 10 best studies (4 randomized trials and 6 observational studies) control children did not receive MV during follow-up. In eight of these studies the vaccine efficacy against death (VED) was 60% or more. In four studies with information on MV provided both before and after 12 months of age, the all-cause mortality reduction was significantly larger for children vaccinated in infancy (VED=74%; 95% CI 51-86%) than for children vaccinated after 12 months of age (VED=29%; CI 8-46%). Prevention of measles explained little of the reduction in mortality. In five studies with information on measles infection, VED was 67% (51-78%) and when measles deaths were excluded, VED was only reduced to 65% (47-77%). One natural experiment compared MV at 4-8 months versus MV at 9-11 months of age and found significantly lower all-cause mortality with early vaccination, the difference being 39% (8-60%). Child mortality may be reduced if MV is given earlier than currently recommended by international organizations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Costs of implementing integrated community case management (iCCM) in six African countries: implications for sustainability

PubMed Central

Daviaud, Emmanuelle; Besada, Donnela; Leon, Natalie; Rohde, Sarah; Sanders, David; Oliphant, Nicholas; Doherty, Tanya

2017-01-01

Background Sub–Saharan Africa still reports the highest rates of under–five mortality. Low cost, high impact interventions exist, however poor access remains a challenge. Integrated community case management (iCCM) was introduced to improve access to essential services for children 2–59 months through diagnosis, treatment and referral services by community health workers for malaria, pneumonia and diarrhea. This paper presents the results of an economic analysis of iCCM implementation in regions supported by UNICEF in six countries and assesses country–level scale–up implications. The paper focuses on costs to provider (health system and donors) to inform planning and budgeting, and does not cover cost–effectiveness. Methods The analysis combines annualised set–up costs and 1 year implementation costs to calculate incremental economic and financial costs per treatment from a provider perspective. Affordability is assessed by calculating the per capita financial cost of the program as a percentage of the public health expenditure per capita. Time and financial implications of a 30% increase in utilization were modeled. Country scale–up is modeled for all children under 5 in rural areas. Results Utilization of iCCM services varied from 0.05 treatment/y/under–five in Ethiopia to over 1 in Niger. There were between 10 and 603 treatments/community health worker (CHW)/y. Consultation cost represented between 93% and 22% of economic costs per treatment influenced by the level of utilization. Weighted economic cost per treatment ranged from US$ 13 (2015 USD) in Ghana to US$ 2 in Malawi. CHWs spent from 1 to 9 hours a week on iCCM. A 30% increase in utilization would add up to 2 hours a week, but reduce cost per treatment (by 20% in countries with low utilization). Country scale up would amount to under US$ 0.8 per capita total population (US$ 0.06–US$0.74), between 0.5% and 2% of public health expenditure per capita but 8% in Niger. Conclusions iCCM addresses unmet needs and impacts on under 5 mortality. An economic cost of under US$ 1/capita/y represents a sound investment. Utilization remains low however, and strategies must be developed as a priority to improve demand. Continued donor support is required to sustain iCCM services and strengthen its integration within national health systems. PMID:28702174

Quantifying the individual-level association between income and mortality risk in the United States using the National Longitudinal Mortality Study.

PubMed

Brodish, Paul Henry; Hakes, Jahn K

2016-12-01

Policy makers would benefit from being able to estimate the likely impact of potential interventions to reverse the effects of rapidly rising income inequality on mortality rates. Using multiple cohorts of the National Longitudinal Mortality Study (NLMS), we estimate the absolute income effect on premature mortality in the United States. A multivariate Poisson regression using the natural logarithm of equivilized household income establishes the magnitude of the absolute income effect on mortality. We calculate mortality rates for each income decile of the study sample and mortality rate ratios relative to the decile containing mean income. We then apply the estimated income effect to two kinds of hypothetical interventions that would redistribute income. The first lifts everyone with an equivalized household income at or below the U.S. poverty line (in 2000$) out of poverty, to the income category just above the poverty line. The second shifts each family's equivalized income by, in turn, 10%, 20%, 30%, or 40% toward the mean household income, equivalent to reducing the Gini coefficient by the same percentage in each scenario. We also assess mortality disparities of the hypothetical interventions using ratios of mortality rates of the ninth and second income deciles, and test sensitivity to the assumption of causality of income on mortality by halving the mortality effect per unit of equivalized household income. The estimated absolute income effect would produce a three to four percent reduction in mortality for a 10% reduction in the Gini coefficient. Larger mortality reductions result from larger reductions in the Gini, but with diminishing returns. Inequalities in estimated mortality rates are reduced by a larger percentage than overall estimated mortality rates under the same hypothetical redistributions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maternal health and survival in Pakistan: issues and options.

PubMed

Khan, Yasir P; Bhutta, Shereen Z; Munim, Shama; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A

2009-10-01

Although its measurement may be difficult, the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) is a key indicator of maternal health globally. In Pakistan each year over five million women become pregnant, and of these 700,000 (15% of all pregnant women) are likely to experience some obstetrical and medical complications. An estimated 30,000 women die each year from pregnancy-related causes, and the most recent estimates indicate that the MMR is 276 per 100,000 births annually. In this review, we describe the status of maternal health and survival in Pakistan and place it in its wider context of key determinants. We draw attention to the economic and social vulnerability of pregnant women, and stress the importance of concomitant broader strategies, including poverty reduction and women's empowerment. Undernutrition for girls, early marriage, and high fertility rates coupled with unmet needs for contraception are important determinants of maternal ill health in Pakistan. Our review also examines factors influencing the under-utilization of maternal health services among Pakistani women, such as the lack of availability of skilled care providers and poor quality services. Notwithstanding these observations, there are evidence-based interventions available that, if implemented at scale, could make important contributions towards reducing the burden of maternal mortality in Pakistan.

Improved triage and emergency care for children reduces inpatient mortality in a resource-constrained setting.

PubMed

Molyneux, Elizabeth; Ahmad, Shafique; Robertson, Ann

2006-04-01

Early assessment, prioritization for treatment and management of sick children attending a health service are critical to achieving good outcomes. Many hospitals in developing countries see large numbers of patients and have few staff, so patients often have to wait before being assessed and treated. We present the example of a busy Under-Fives Clinic that provided outpatient services, immunizations and treatment for medical emergencies. The clinic was providing an inadequate service resulting in some inappropriate admissions and a high case-fatality rate. We assessed the deficiencies and sought resources to improve services. A busy paediatric outpatient clinic in a public tertiary care hospital in Blantyre, Malawi. The main changes we made were to train staff in emergency care and triage, improve patient flow through the department and to develop close cooperation between inpatient and outpatient services. Training coincided with a restructuring of the physical layout of the department. The changes were put in place when the department reopened in January 2001. Improvements in the process and delivery of care and the ability to prioritize clinical management are essential to good practice. Making the changes described above has streamlined the delivery of care and led to a reduction in inpatient mortality from 10-18% before the changes were made (before 2001) to 6-8% after.

Reduced mortality in high-risk coronary patients operated off pump with preoperative intraaortic balloon counterpulsation.

PubMed

Etienne, Pierre Yves; Papadatos, Spiridon; Glineur, David; Mairy, Yves; El Khoury, Elie; Noirhomme, Philippe; El Khoury, Gebrine

2007-08-01

Preoperative intraaortic balloon pump (IABP) counterpulsation has better outcomes compared with perioperative or postoperative insertion in critical patients, and off-pump surgical procedures have been advocated to reduce mortality in high-risk patients. However, some surgeons are reluctant to perform beating heart operations in specific patient subgroups, including those with unstable angina or patients with low ejection fraction, because of their possible perioperative hemodynamic instability. We evaluated combined beating heart procedures and preoperative IABP in selected high-risk patients and compared our results with the predictive European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) model. Fifty-five high-risk patients with a mean logistic EuroSCORE of 24 were prospectively enrolled and then divided into emergency (group 1, n = 25) and nonemergency (group 2, n = 30) groups. IABP was inserted immediately before operation in group 1 and the day before the procedure in group 2. Compared with the EuroSCORE predictive model, a dramatic decrease in mortality occurred in both groups. Group I predicted mortality was 36.8%, and observed was 20%; and group 2 predicted mortality was 15.2% and observed was 0%. No specific complications from the use of IABP were encountered. During mid-term (2 years) follow-up, no patient died from a cardiac cause or required percutaneous coronary intervention or subsequent reoperation due to incomplete revascularization. The combined use of preoperative intraaortic counterpulsation and beating heart intervention allows complete revascularization in high-risk patients with a important reduction in operative mortality and excellent mid-term results.

Mobile-health tool to improve maternal and neonatal health care in Bangladesh: a cluster randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Tobe, Ruoyan Gai; Haque, Syed Emdadul; Ikegami, Kiyoko; Mori, Rintaro

2018-04-16

In Bangladesh, the targets on reduction of maternal mortality and utilization of related obstetric services provided by skilled health personnel in Millennium Development Goals 5 remains unmet, and the progress in reduction of neonatal mortality lag behind that in the reduction of infant and under-five mortalities, remaining as an essential issue towards the achievement of maternal and neonatal health targets in health related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). As access to appropriate perinatal care is crucial to reduce maternal and neonatal deaths, recently several mobile platform-based health programs sponsored by donor countries and Non-Governmental Organizations have targeted to reduce maternal and child mortality. On the other hand, good health-care is necessary for the development. Thus, we designed this implementation research to improve maternal and child health care for targeting SDGs. This cluster randomized trial will be conducted in Lohagora of Narail District and Dhamrai of Dhaka District. Participants are pregnant women in the respective areas. The total sample size is 3000 where 500 pregnant women will get Mother and Child Handbook (MCH) and messages using mobile phone on health care during pregnancy and antenatal care about one year in each area. The other 500 in each area will get health education using only MCH book. The rest 1000 participants will be controlled; it means 500 in each area. We randomly assigned the intervention and controlled area based on smallest administrative area (Unions) in Bangladesh. The data collection and health education will be provided through trained research officers starting from February 2017 to August 2018. Each health education session is conducting in their house. The study proposal was reviewed and approved by NCCD, Japan and Bangladesh Medical Research Council (BMRC), Bangladesh. The data will be analyzed using STATA and SPSS software. For the improvement of maternal and neonatal care, this community-based intervention using mobile phone and handbook will do great contribution. Thus, a developing country where resources are limited received the highest benefit. Such intervention will guide to design for prevention of other diseases too. UMIN000025628 Registered June 13, 2016.

Hard choices in assessing survival past dams — a comparison of single- and paired-release strategies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zydlewski, Joseph D.; Stich, Daniel S.; Sigourney, Douglas B.

2017-01-01

Mark–recapture models are widely used to estimate survival of salmon smolts migrating past dams. Paired releases have been used to improve estimate accuracy by removing components of mortality not attributable to the dam. This method is accompanied by reduced precision because (i) sample size is reduced relative to a single, large release; and (ii) variance calculations inflate error. We modeled an idealized system with a single dam to assess trade-offs between accuracy and precision and compared methods using root mean squared error (RMSE). Simulations were run under predefined conditions (dam mortality, background mortality, detection probability, and sample size) to determine scenarios when the paired release was preferable to a single release. We demonstrate that a paired-release design provides a theoretical advantage over a single-release design only at large sample sizes and high probabilities of detection. At release numbers typical of many survival studies, paired release can result in overestimation of dam survival. Failures to meet model assumptions of a paired release may result in further overestimation of dam-related survival. Under most conditions, a single-release strategy was preferable.

Patterns of lung cancer mortality in 23 countries: application of the age-period-cohort model.

PubMed

Liaw, Yung-Po; Huang, Yi-Chia; Lien, Guang-Wen

2005-03-05

Smoking habits do not seem to be the main explanation of the epidemiological characteristics of female lung cancer mortality in Asian countries. However, Asian countries are often excluded from studies of geographical differences in trends for lung cancer mortality. We thus examined lung cancer trends from 1971 to 1995 among men and women for 23 countries, including four in Asia. International and national data were used to analyze lung cancer mortality from 1971 to 1995 in both sexes. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were analyzed in five consecutive five-year periods and for each five-year age group in the age range 30 to 79. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to estimate the period effect (adjusted for age and cohort effects) for mortality from lung cancer. The sex ratio of the ASMR for lung cancer was lower in Asian countries, while the sex ratio of smoking prevalence was higher in Asian countries. The mean values of the sex ratio of the ASMR from lung cancer in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan for the five 5-year period were 2.10, 2.39, 3.07, and 3.55, respectively. These values not only remained quite constant over each five-year period, but were also lower than seen in the western countries. The period effect, for lung cancer mortality as derived for the 23 countries from the APC model, could be classified into seven patterns. Period effects for both men and women in 23 countries, as derived using the APC model, could be classified into seven patterns. Four Asian countries have a relatively low sex ratio in lung cancer mortality and a relatively high sex ratio in smoking prevalence. Factors other than smoking might be important, especially for women in Asian countries.

Topical applications of chlorhexidine to the umbilical cord for prevention of omphalitis and neonatal mortality in southern Nepal: a community-based, cluster-randomised trial

PubMed Central

Mullany, Luke C; Darmstadt, Gary L; Khatry, Subarna K; Katz, Joanne; LeClerq, Steven C; Shrestha, Shardaram; Adhikari, Ramesh; Tielsch, James M

2008-01-01

Summary Background Omphalitis contributes to neonatal morbidity and mortality in developing countries. Umbilical cord cleansing with antiseptics might reduce infection and mortality risk, but has not been rigorously investigated. Methods In our community-based, cluster-randomised trial, 413 communities in Sarlahi, Nepal, were randomly assigned to one of three cord-care regimens. 4934 infants were assigned to 4·0% chlorhexidine, 5107 to cleansing with soap and water, and 5082 to dry cord care. In intervention clusters, the newborn cord was cleansed in the home on days 1−4, 6, 8, and 10. In all clusters, the cord was examined for signs of infection (pus, redness, or swelling) on these visits and in follow-up visits on days 12, 14, 21, and 28. Incidence of omphalitis was defined under three sign-based algorithms, with increasing severity. Infant vital status was recorded for 28 completed days. The primary outcomes were incidence of neonatal omphalitis and neonatal mortality. Analysis was by intention-to-treat. This trial is registered with Clinicaltrials.gov, number NCT00109616. Findings Frequency of omphalitis by all three definitions was reduced significantly in the chlorhexidine group. Severe omphalitis in chlorhexidine clusters was reduced by 75% (incidence rate ratio 0·25, 95% CI 0·12−0·53; 13 infections/4839 neonatal periods) compared with dry cord-care clusters (52/4930). Neonatal mortality was 24% lower in the chlorhexidine group (relative risk 0·76 [95% CI 0·55−1·04]) than in the dry cord care group. In infants enrolled within the first 24 h, mortality was significantly reduced by 34% in the chlorhexidine group (0·66 [0·46−0·95]). Soap and water did not reduce infection or mortality risk. Interpretation Recommendations for dry cord care should be reconsidered on the basis of these findings that early antisepsis with chlorhexidine of the umbilical cord reduces local cord infections and overall neonatal mortality. PMID:16546539

Characterizing prolonged heat effects on mortality in a sub-tropical high-density city, Hong Kong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Hung Chak; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Ren, Chao; Ng, Edward

2017-11-01

Extreme hot weather events are likely to increase under future climate change, and it is exacerbated in urban areas due to the complex urban settings. It causes excess mortality due to prolonged exposure to such extreme heat. However, there is lack of universal definition of prolonged heat or heat wave, which leads to inadequacies of associated risk preparedness. Previous studies focused on estimating temperature-mortality relationship based on temperature thresholds for assessing heat-related health risks but only several studies investigated the association between types of prolonged heat and excess mortality. However, most studies focused on one or a few isolated heat waves, which cannot demonstrate typical scenarios that population has experienced. In addition, there are limited studies on the difference between daytime and nighttime temperature, resulting in insufficiency to conclude the effect of prolonged heat. In sub-tropical high-density cities where prolonged heat is common in summer, it is important to obtain a comprehensive understanding of prolonged heat for a complete assessment of heat-related health risks. In this study, six types of prolonged heat were examined by using a time-stratified analysis. We found that more consecutive hot nights contribute to higher mortality risk while the number of consecutive hot days does not have significant association with excess mortality. For a day after five consecutive hot nights, there were 7.99% [7.64%, 8.35%], 7.74% [6.93%, 8.55%], and 8.14% [7.38%, 8.88%] increases in all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. Non-consecutive hot days or nights are also found to contribute to short-term mortality risk. For a 7-day-period with at least five non-consecutive hot days and nights, there was 15.61% [14.52%, 16.70%] increase in all-cause mortality at lag 0-1, but only -2.00% [-2.83%, -1.17%] at lag 2-3. Differences in the temperature-mortality relationship caused by hot days and hot nights imply the need to categorize prolonged heat for public health surveillance. Findings also contribute to potential improvement to existing heat-health warning system.

Factors associated with perinatal mortality among public health deliveries in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, an unmatched case control study.

PubMed

Getiye, Yemisrach; Fantahun, Mesganaw

2017-07-26

perinatal mortality is the sum of still birth (fetal death) and early neonatal death (ENND) i.e. death of live newborn before the age of 7 completed days. Perinatal mortality accounts three fourth of the deaths of the neonatal period and is one of the major challenges for under-five mortality. Therefore this study was conducted to better understand the common and avoidable factors that affect perinatal mortality in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. An unmatched case control study design using secondary data as a source of information was conducted. Cases were still births or early neonatal deaths and controls were live births and neonates who were discharged alive from the hospital and did not die before the age of 7 days. The study period was from 1st January up to 30th February 2015. Epi-Info version 7.0 and SPSS Version 21 were used for data entry and analysis. Descriptive statistics, frequencies, proportions and diagrams were used to check the distribution of outcome variable and describe the study population. Logistic regression model was used to identify the important factors that are associated with perinatal mortality. A total of 1113(376 cases and 737 controls) maternal charts were reviewed. The mean age of the mothers for cases and controls were 26.47 ± 4.87 and 26.95 ± 4.68 respectively. Five hundred ninety seven (53.6%) mothers delivered for the first time. Factors that are significantly associated with increased risk of perinatal mortality were birth interval less than 2 years, preterm delivery, anemia, congenital anomaly, previous history of early neonatal death and low birth weight. Use of partograph was also associated with decreased risk of perinatal mortality. From factors that are associated with perinatal mortality, some of them can be prevented with early investigation of pregnant mothers on their antenatal care follow. Appropriate labor follow-up and monitoring with regular use of partograph, immediate newborn care and interventions to delay birth interval also minimize perinatal mortality.

Characterizing prolonged heat effects on mortality in a sub-tropical high-density city, Hong Kong.

PubMed

Ho, Hung Chak; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Ren, Chao; Ng, Edward

2017-11-01

Extreme hot weather events are likely to increase under future climate change, and it is exacerbated in urban areas due to the complex urban settings. It causes excess mortality due to prolonged exposure to such extreme heat. However, there is lack of universal definition of prolonged heat or heat wave, which leads to inadequacies of associated risk preparedness. Previous studies focused on estimating temperature-mortality relationship based on temperature thresholds for assessing heat-related health risks but only several studies investigated the association between types of prolonged heat and excess mortality. However, most studies focused on one or a few isolated heat waves, which cannot demonstrate typical scenarios that population has experienced. In addition, there are limited studies on the difference between daytime and nighttime temperature, resulting in insufficiency to conclude the effect of prolonged heat. In sub-tropical high-density cities where prolonged heat is common in summer, it is important to obtain a comprehensive understanding of prolonged heat for a complete assessment of heat-related health risks. In this study, six types of prolonged heat were examined by using a time-stratified analysis. We found that more consecutive hot nights contribute to higher mortality risk while the number of consecutive hot days does not have significant association with excess mortality. For a day after five consecutive hot nights, there were 7.99% [7.64%, 8.35%], 7.74% [6.93%, 8.55%], and 8.14% [7.38%, 8.88%] increases in all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. Non-consecutive hot days or nights are also found to contribute to short-term mortality risk. For a 7-day-period with at least five non-consecutive hot days and nights, there was 15.61% [14.52%, 16.70%] increase in all-cause mortality at lag 0-1, but only -2.00% [-2.83%, -1.17%] at lag 2-3. Differences in the temperature-mortality relationship caused by hot days and hot nights imply the need to categorize prolonged heat for public health surveillance. Findings also contribute to potential improvement to existing heat-health warning system.

Mortality Benefit of Recombinant Human Interleukin-1 Receptor Antagonist for Sepsis Varies by Initial Interleukin-1 Receptor Antagonist Plasma Concentration.

PubMed

Meyer, Nuala J; Reilly, John P; Anderson, Brian J; Palakshappa, Jessica A; Jones, Tiffanie K; Dunn, Thomas G; Shashaty, Michael G S; Feng, Rui; Christie, Jason D; Opal, Steven M

2018-01-01

Plasma interleukin-1 beta may influence sepsis mortality, yet recombinant human interleukin-1 receptor antagonist did not reduce mortality in randomized trials. We tested for heterogeneity in the treatment effect of recombinant human interleukin-1 receptor antagonist by baseline plasma interleukin-1 beta or interleukin-1 receptor antagonist concentration. Retrospective subgroup analysis of randomized controlled trial. Multicenter North American and European clinical trial. Five hundred twenty-nine subjects with sepsis and hypotension or hypoperfusion, representing 59% of the original trial population. Random assignment of placebo or recombinant human interleukin-1 receptor antagonist × 72 hours. We measured prerandomization plasma interleukin-1 beta and interleukin-1 receptor antagonist and tested for statistical interaction between recombinant human interleukin-1 receptor antagonist treatment and baseline plasma interleukin-1 receptor antagonist or interleukin-1 beta concentration on 28-day mortality. There was significant heterogeneity in the effect of recombinant human interleukin-1 receptor antagonist treatment by plasma interleukin-1 receptor antagonist concentration whether plasma interleukin-1 receptor antagonist was divided into deciles (interaction p = 0.046) or dichotomized (interaction p = 0.028). Interaction remained present across different predicted mortality levels. Among subjects with baseline plasma interleukin-1 receptor antagonist above 2,071 pg/mL (n = 283), recombinant human interleukin-1 receptor antagonist therapy reduced adjusted mortality from 45.4% to 34.3% (adjusted risk difference, -0.12; 95% CI, -0.23 to -0.01), p = 0.044. Mortality in subjects with plasma interleukin-1 receptor antagonist below 2,071 pg/mL was not reduced by recombinant human interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (adjusted risk difference, +0.07; 95% CI, -0.04 to +0.17), p = 0.230. Interaction between plasma interleukin-1 beta concentration and recombinant human interleukin-1 receptor antagonist treatment was not statistically significant. We report a heterogeneous effect of recombinant human interleukin-1 receptor antagonist on 28-day sepsis mortality that is potentially predictable by plasma interleukin-1 receptor antagonist in one trial. A precision clinical trial of recombinant human interleukin-1 receptor antagonist targeted to septic patients with high plasma interleukin-1 receptor antagonist may be worthy of consideration.

Developing an acoustic method for reducing North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) ship strike mortality along the United States eastern seaboard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullen, Kaitlyn Allen

North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis ) are among the world's most endangered cetaceans. Although protected from commercial whaling since 1949, North Atlantic right whales exhibit little to no population growth. Ship strike mortality is the leading known cause of North Atlantic right whale mortality. North Atlantic right whales exhibit developed auditory systems, and vocalize in the frequency range that dominates ship acoustic signatures. With no behavioral audiogram published, current literature assumes these whales should be able to acoustically detect signals in the same frequencies they vocalize. Recorded ship acoustic signatures occur at intensities that are similar or higher to those recorded by vocalizing North Atlantic right whales. If North Atlantic right whales are capable of acoustically detecting oncoming ship, why are they susceptible to ship strike mortality? This thesis models potential acoustic impediments to North Atlantic right whale detection of oncoming ships, and concludes the presence of modeled and observed bow null effect acoustic shadow zones, located directly ahead of oncoming ships, are likely to impair the ability of North Atlantic right whales to detect and/or localize oncoming shipping traffic. This lack of detection and/or localization likely leads to a lack of ship strike avoidance, and thus contributes to the observed high rates of North Atlantic right whale ship strike mortality. I propose that North Atlantic right whale ship strike mortality reduction is possible via reducing and/or eliminating the presence of bow null effect acoustic shadow zones. This thesis develops and tests one method for bow null effect acoustic shadow zone reduction on five ships. Finally, I review current United States policy towards North Atlantic right whale ship strike mortality in an effort to determine if the bow null effect acoustic shadow zone reduction method developed is a viable method for reducing North Atlantic right whale ship strike mortality within United States waters. I recommend that future work include additional prototype modifications and testing, application for a marine mammal scientific take authorization permit to test the modified prototype on multiple mysticete species, and continued interfacing of the prototype with evolving United States North Atlantic right whale ship strike reduction policies.

Polyphenol intake and mortality risk: a re-analysis of the PREDIMED trial

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Polyphenols may lower the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and other chronic diseases due to their antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties, as well as their beneficial effects on blood pressure, lipids and insulin resistance. However, no previous epidemiological studies have evaluated the relationship between the intake of total polyphenols intake and polyphenol subclasses with overall mortality. Our aim was to evaluate whether polyphenol intake is associated with all-cause mortality in subjects at high cardiovascular risk. Methods We used data from the PREDIMED study, a 7,447-participant, parallel-group, randomized, multicenter, controlled five-year feeding trial aimed at assessing the effects of the Mediterranean Diet in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Polyphenol intake was calculated by matching food consumption data from repeated food frequency questionnaires (FFQ) with the Phenol-Explorer database on the polyphenol content of each reported food. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) between polyphenol intake and mortality were estimated using time-dependent Cox proportional hazard models. Results Over an average of 4.8 years of follow-up, we observed 327 deaths. After multivariate adjustment, we found a 37% relative reduction in all-cause mortality comparing the highest versus the lowest quintiles of total polyphenol intake (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.63; 95% CI 0.41 to 0.97; P for trend = 0.12). Among the polyphenol subclasses, stilbenes and lignans were significantly associated with reduced all-cause mortality (HR =0.48; 95% CI 0.25 to 0.91; P for trend = 0.04 and HR = 0.60; 95% CI 0.37 to 0.97; P for trend = 0.03, respectively), with no significant associations apparent in the rest (flavonoids or phenolic acids). Conclusions Among high-risk subjects, those who reported a high polyphenol intake, especially of stilbenes and lignans, showed a reduced risk of overall mortality compared to those with lower intakes. These results may be useful to determine optimal polyphenol intake or specific food sources of polyphenols that may reduce the risk of all-cause mortality. Clinical trial registration ISRCTN35739639. PMID:24886552

War, famine and excess child mortality in Africa: the role of parental education.

PubMed

Kiros, G E; Hogan, D P

2001-06-01

Civilian-targeted warfare and famine constitute two of the greatest public health challenges of our time. Both have devastated many countries in Africa. Social services, and in particular, health services, have been destroyed. Dictatorial and military governments have used the withholding of food as a political weapon to exacerbate human suffering. Under such circumstances, war and famine are expected to have catastrophic impacts on child survival. This study examines the role of parental education in reducing excess child mortality in Africa by considering Tigrai-Ethiopia, which was severely affected by famine and civil war during 1973--1991. This study uses data from the 1994 Housing and Population Census of Ethiopia and on communities' vulnerability to food crises. Child mortality levels and trends by various subgroups are estimated using indirect methods of mortality estimation techniques. A Poisson regression model is used to examine the relationship between number of children dead and parental education. Although child mortality is excessively high (about 200 deaths per 1000 births), our results show enormous variations in child mortality by parental education. Child mortality is highest among children born to illiterate mothers and illiterate fathers. Our results also show that the role of parental education in reducing child mortality is great during famine periods. In the communities devastated by war, however, its impact was significant only when the father has above primary education. CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that both mother's and father's education are significantly and negatively associated with child mortality, although this effect diminishes over time if the crisis is severe and prolonged. The policy implications of our study include, obviously, reducing armed conflict, addressing food security in a timely manner, and expansion of educational opportunities.

Mechanisms of plant survival and mortality during drought: Why do some plants survive while others succumb to drought?

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDowell, Nate G.; Pockman, William T.; Allen, Craig D.; Breshears, David D.; Cobb, Neil; Kolb, Thomas; Plaut, Jennifer; Sperry, John; West, Adam; Williams, David G.; Yepez, Enrico A.

2008-01-01

Severe droughts have been associated with regional-scale forest mortality worldwide. Climate change is expected to exacerbate regional mortality events; however, prediction remains difficult because the physiological mechanisms underlying drought survival and mortality are poorly understood. We developed a hydraulically based theory considering carbon balance and insect resistance that allowed development and examination of hypotheses regarding survival and mortality. Multiple mechanisms may cause mortality during drought. A common mechanism for plants with isohydric regulation of water status results from avoidance of drought-induced hydraulic failure via stomatal closure, resulting in carbon starvation and a cascade of downstream effects such as reduced resistance to biotic agents. Mortality by hydraulic failure per se may occur for isohydric seedlings or trees near their maximum height. Although anisohydric plants are relatively drought-tolerant, they are predisposed to hydraulic failure because they operate with narrower hydraulic safety margins during drought. Elevated temperatures should exacerbate carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. Biotic agents may amplify and be amplified by drought-induced plant stress. Wet multidecadal climate oscillations may increase plant susceptibility to drought-induced mortality by stimulating shifts in hydraulic architecture, effectively predisposing plants to water stress. Climate warming and increased frequency of extreme events will probably cause increased regional mortality episodes. Isohydric and anisohydric water potential regulation may partition species between survival and mortality, and, as such, incorporating this hydraulic framework may be effective for modeling plant survival and mortality under future climate conditions.

Non-specific effects of diphtheria tetanus pertussis vaccination on child mortality in Cebu, The Philippines.

PubMed

Chan, Grace J; Moulton, Lawrence H; Becker, Stan; Muñoz, Alvaro; Black, Robert E

2007-10-01

To determine the non-specific effects of diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis (DTP) vaccination and sex on mortality before 30 months of age among those who received Bacille Calmette Guerin (BCG) vaccine in a high mortality area. This analysis used a longitudinal study of child survival monitoring the use of primary care services, morbidity and mortality in Metro Cebu, The Philippines. Participants included 14 537 children under 30 months of age who received a BCG vaccination from July 1988 to January 1991. The main outcome measure was all-cause mortality. Mortality before 30 months of age was 57% lower among BCG-vaccinated children who received DTP vaccination than BCG-vaccinated children who did not receive DTP vaccination {hazard ratio (HR) for vaccinated vs unvaccinated 0.43 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.21-0.88]}. Females had lower mortality rates [HR = 0.19 (0.04-0.86), P = 0.03] than males among DTP-unvaccinated children. The protective effect of DTP vaccination was more pronounced in males [HR 0.32 (0.14-0.73)] than in females [HR 0.86 (0.18-4.23)]. DTP vaccination increased (interaction term P = 0.08) the female-to-male mortality ratio to 0.76 (0.52-1.12). Among BCG-vaccinated children under 30 months of age, DTP vaccination is associated with improved survival. The increased female-male mortality ratio is associated with reduced mortality among males following DTP vaccination rather than increased mortality among female children.

Precisely Tracking Childhood Death.

PubMed

Farag, Tamer H; Koplan, Jeffrey P; Breiman, Robert F; Madhi, Shabir A; Heaton, Penny M; Mundel, Trevor; Ordi, Jaume; Bassat, Quique; Menendez, Clara; Dowell, Scott F

2017-07-01

Little is known about the specific causes of neonatal and under-five childhood death in high-mortality geographic regions due to a lack of primary data and dependence on inaccurate tools, such as verbal autopsy. To meet the ambitious new Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 to eliminate preventable child mortality in every country, better approaches are needed to precisely determine specific causes of death so that prevention and treatment interventions can be strengthened and focused. Minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS) is a technique that uses needle-based postmortem sampling, followed by advanced histopathology and microbiology to definitely determine cause of death. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is supporting a new surveillance system called the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance network, which will determine cause of death using MITS in combination with other information, and yield cause-specific population-based mortality rates, eventually in up to 12-15 sites in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. However, the Gates Foundation funding alone is not enough. We call on governments, other funders, and international stakeholders to expand the use of pathology-based cause of death determination to provide the information needed to end preventable childhood mortality.

Distinct effects of reminding mortality and physical pain on the default-mode activity and activity underlying self-reflection.

PubMed

Shi, Zhenhao; Han, Shihui

2018-06-01

Behavioral research suggests that reminding both mortality and negative affect influences self-related thoughts. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), we tested the hypothesis that reminders of mortality and physical pain decrease brain activity underlying self-related thoughts. Three groups of adults underwent priming procedures during which they answered questions pertaining to mortality, physical pain, or leisure time, respectively. Before and after priming, participants performed personality trait judgments on oneself or a celebrity, identified the font of words, or passively viewed a fixation. The default-mode activity and neural activity underlying self-reflection were identified by contrasting viewing a fixation vs. font judgment and trait judgments on oneself vs. a celebrity, respectively. The analyses of the pre-priming functional MRI (fMRI) data identified the default-mode activity in the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC), ventral medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC), and parahippocampal gyrus, and the activity underlying instructed self-reflection in both the ventral and dorsal regions of the MPFC. The analyses of the post-priming fMRI data revealed that, relative to leisure time priming, reminding mortality significantly reduced the default-mode PCC activity, and reminding physical pain significantly decreased the dorsal MPFC activity during instructed self-reflection. Our findings suggest distinct neural underpinnings of the effect of reminding morality and aversive emotion on default-mode and instructed self-reflection.

Projection of ambient PM2.5 exposure in India and associated health burden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhury, Sourangsu; Dey, Sagnik; Smith, Kirk

2017-04-01

Ambient particulate matter with diameter < 2.5 µm (PM2.5) is the major criteria pollutant for health assessments of air quality. (WHO, 2006). Exposure to PM2.5 has potential health risks due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases leading to premature mortality. The annual premature mortality burden from ambient PM2.5 exposure in India is large ( 0.6-0.8 million). It is important to understand how the ambient PM2.5 concentration will change in future under the warming climate and how it translates into premature mortality, when the population distribution exposed to the pollution and baseline mortality are expected to change in response to changes in socio-economic condition to adapt to climate change impacts. We estimate ambient PM2.5 future (up to 2100) by adopting 2 approaches. In the first approach, PM2.5 is estimated as a product of AOD from the CMIP5 models (under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) and the present day conversion factor estimated by the Geos-CHEM model as a function of present day meteorological conditions and emission. The second approach involves adding up all the PM2.5 components (SO4, NH4, BC, SOA, POA, a fraction of sea salt and dust) available from 13 CMIP5 models under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. The change is represented in relative terms with respect to the baseline period PM2.5 exposure (2001-2005), when satellite data are available and the CMIP5 models are run in historical mode. The difference between these two approaches implies the role of meteorology in modulating PM2.5 exposure for future due to climate change. We present the decadal statistics and separate the role of meteorology from the combined role of meteorology and emission in modulating PM2.5 variability. We project premature mortality for future using population for future, projected under 5 SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios (definitions of these scenarios are provided in Table 1) developed by IIASA. The population under these five scenarios have varying capability to adapt and mitigate to cope up with the changing climate. We estimate premature mortality for two cases, (i) assuming BM to remain constant as of the present day, and (ii) modifying the BM as a function of gross development product. Relative risk is estimated using the IER function. Hence we develop customized scenarios for estimating premature death by linking projected PM2.5 under 2 RCP scenarios with population and baseline mortality from 5 SSP scenarios for each decade up to 2100, creating a total of 10 combined scenarios for each decade. We project that if baseline mortality remains as of present day (WHO 2011) then premature mortality increases up to the middle of the century and then decreases, but never decreases below the present day premature mortality, whereas if we assume that baseline mortality varies as a exponentially decaying function of GDP, premature mortality for future decades are projected to decrease below the present day estimate of premature mortality as GDP is projected to increase in all the 5 SSP scenarios. We further separate the effect of future meteorology, epidemiological changes and demographic changes in future on projected premature mortality. This study can help in the government in developing policies for future in order to avert the projected mortality and follow all the requirements that the best case scenario deserves in order to mitigate the effect of PM2.5 on mortality.

High nutrition risk related to dietary intake is associated with an increased risk of hospitalisation and mortality for older Māori: LiLACS NZ.

PubMed

North, Sylvia M; Wham, Carol A; Teh, Ruth; Moyes, Simon A; Rolleston, Anna; Kerse, Ngaire

2018-06-11

To investigate the association between domains of nutrition risk with hospitalisations and mortality for New Zealand Māori and non-Māori in advanced age. Within LiLACS NZ, 256 Māori and 399 non-Māori octogenarians were assessed for nutrition risk using the Seniors in the Community: Risk Evaluation for Eating and Nutrition (SCREEN II) questionnaire according to three domains of risk. Sociodemographic and health characteristics were established. Five years from inception, survival analyses examined associations between nutrition risk from the three domains of SCREEN II with all-cause hospital admissions and mortality. For Māori but not non-Māori, lower nutrition risk in the Dietary Intake domain was associated with reduced hospitalisations and mortality (Hazard Ratios [HR] [95%CI] 0.97 [0.95-0.99], p=0.009 and 0.91 [0.86-0.98], p=0.005, respectively). The 'Factors Affecting Intake' domain was associated with mortality (HR, [95%CI] 0.94 [0.89-1.00], p=0.048), adjusted for age, gender, socioeconomic deprivation, education, previous hospital admissions, comorbidities and activities of daily living. Improved dietary adequacy may reduce poor outcomes for older Māori. Implications for public health: Nutrition risk among older Māori is identifiable and treatable. Effort is needed to engage relevant community and whānau (family) support to ensure older Māori have food security and cultural food practices are met. © 2018 The Authors.

Progress towards the child mortality millennium development goal in urban sub-Saharan Africa: the dynamics of population growth, immunization, and access to clean water.

PubMed

Fotso, Jean-Christophe; Ezeh, Alex Chika; Madise, Nyovani Janet; Ciera, James

2007-08-28

Improvements in child survival have been very poor in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Since the 1990 s, declines in child mortality have reversed in many countries in the region, while in others, they have either slowed or stalled, making it improbable that the target of reducing child mortality by two thirds by 2015 will be reached. This paper highlights the implications of urban population growth and access to health and social services on progress in achieving MDG 4. Specifically, it examines trends in childhood mortality in SSA in relation to urban population growth, vaccination coverage and access to safe drinking water. Correlation methods are used to analyze national-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys and from the United Nations. The analysis is complemented by case studies on intra-urban health differences in Kenya and Zambia. Only five of the 22 countries included in the study have recorded declines in urban child mortality that are in line with the MDG target of about 4% per year; five others have recorded an increase; and the 12 remaining countries witnessed only minimal decline. More rapid rate of urban population growth is associated with negative trend in access to safe drinking water and in vaccination coverage, and ultimately to increasing or timid declines in child mortality. There is evidence of intra-urban disparities in child health in some countries like Kenya and Zambia. Failing to appropriately target the growing sub-group of the urban poor and improve their living conditions and health status - which is an MDG target itself - may result in lack of improvement on national indicators of health. Sustained expansion of potable water supplies and vaccination coverage among the disadvantaged urban dwellers should be given priority in the efforts to achieve the child mortality MDG in SSA.

Parenthood as a Terror Management Mechanism: The Moderating Role of Attachment Orientations.

PubMed

Yaakobi, Erez; Mikulincer, Mario; Shaver, Phillip R

2014-06-01

Six studies examined the hypothesis that parenthood serves a terror management function, with effects that are moderated by attachment orientations. In Studies 1 and 2, mortality salience, as compared with control conditions, increased the self-reported vividness and implicit accessibility of parenthood-related cognitions. In Studies 3 and 4, activating parenthood-related thoughts reduced death-thought accessibility and romantic intimacy following mortality salience. In Study 5, heightening the salience of parenthood-related obstacles increased death-thought accessibility. Across the five studies, the effects were significant mainly among participants who scored relatively low on avoidant attachment. In Study 6, avoidant people also reacted to mortality salience with more positive parenthood-related cognitions following an experimental manipulation that made parenthood compatible with their core strivings. Overall, the findings suggest that parenthood can have an anxiety-buffering effect that is moderated by attachment-related avoidance. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

Impacts of fine particulate matter on premature mortality under future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, S.; Allen, R.; Lim, C. H.

2016-12-01

Climate change modulates concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) via modifying atmospheric circulation and the hydrological cycle. Furthermore, surface PM2.5 is significantly associated with respiratory diseases and premature mortality. In this study, we assess the response of PM2.5 concentration to climate change in the future (end of 21st century) and its effects on year of life lost (YLL) and premature mortality. We use outputs from five models participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) to evaluate climate change effects on PM2.5: for present climate with current aerosol emissions and greenhouse gas concentrations, and for future climate, also with present-day aerosol emissions, but with end-of-the century greenhouse gas concentrations, sea surface temperatures and sea-ice. The results show that climate change is associated with an increase in PM2.5 concentration. Combined with global future population data from the United Nation (UN), we also find an increase in premature mortality and YLL.

Population-Based Long-Term Cardiac-Specific Mortality Among 34 489 Five-Year Survivors of Childhood Cancer in Great Britain

PubMed Central

Fidler, Miranda M.; Reulen, Raoul C.; Henson, Katherine; Kelly, Julie; Cutter, David; Levitt, Gill A.; Frobisher, Clare; Winter, David L.

2017-01-01

Background: Increased risks of cardiac morbidity and mortality among childhood cancer survivors have been described previously. However, little is known about the very long-term risks of cardiac mortality and whether the risk has decreased among those more recently diagnosed. We investigated the risk of long-term cardiac mortality among survivors within the recently extended British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study. Methods: The British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study is a population-based cohort of 34 489 five-year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed from 1940 to 2006 and followed up until February 28, 2014, and is the largest cohort to date to assess late cardiac mortality. Standardized mortality ratios and absolute excess risks were used to quantify cardiac mortality excess risk. Multivariable Poisson regression models were used to evaluate the simultaneous effect of risk factors. Likelihood ratio tests were used to test for heterogeneity and trends. Results: Overall, 181 cardiac deaths were observed, which was 3.4 times that expected. Survivors were 2.5 times and 5.9 times more at risk of ischemic heart disease and cardiomyopathy/heart failure death, respectively, than expected. Among those >60 years of age, subsequent primary neoplasms, cardiac disease, and other circulatory conditions accounted for 31%, 22%, and 15% of all excess deaths, respectively, providing clear focus for preventive interventions. The risk of both overall cardiac and cardiomyopathy/heart failure mortality was greatest among those diagnosed from 1980 to 1989. Specifically, for cardiomyopathy/heart failure deaths, survivors diagnosed from 1980 to 1989 had 28.9 times the excess number of deaths observed for survivors diagnosed either before 1970 or from 1990 on. Conclusions: Excess cardiac mortality among 5-year survivors of childhood cancer remains increased beyond 50 years of age and has clear messages in terms of prevention strategies. However, the fact that the risk was greatest in those diagnosed from 1980 to 1989 suggests that initiatives to reduce cardiotoxicity among those treated more recently may be having a measurable impact. PMID:28082386

Risk factors for postneonatal, infant, child and under-5 mortality in Nigeria: a pooled cross-sectional analysis.

PubMed

Ezeh, Osita Kingsley; Agho, Kingsley Emwinyore; Dibley, Michael John; Hall, John Joseph; Page, Andrew Nicolas

2015-03-27

To identify common factors associated with post-neonatal, infant, child and under-5 mortality in Nigeria. A cross-sectional data of three Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHS) for the years 2003, 2008 and 2013 were used. A multistage, stratified, cluster random sampling method was used to gather information on 63,844 singleton live-born infants of the most recent birth of a mother within a 5-year period before each survey was examined using cox regression models. Postneonatal mortality (death between 1 and 11 months), infant mortality (death between birth and 11 months), child mortality (death between 12 and 59 months) and under-5 mortality (death between birth and 59 months). Multivariable analyses indicated that children born to mothers with no formal education was significantly associated with mortality across all four age ranges (adjusted HR=1.30, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.66 for postneonatal; HR=1.38, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.84 for infant; HR=2.13, 95% CI 1.56 to 2.89 for child; HR=1.19, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.41 for under-5). Other significant factors included living in rural areas (HR=1.48, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.89 for postneonatal; HR=1.23, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.47 for infant; HR=1.52, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.99 for child; HR=1.29, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.50 for under-5), and poor households (HR=2.47, 95% CI 1.76 to 3.47 for postneonatal; HR=1.40, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.78 for infant; HR=1.72, 95% CI 1.19 to 2.49 for child; HR=1.43, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.76 for under-5). This study found that no formal education, poor households and living in rural areas increased the risk of postneonatal, infant, child and under-5 mortality among Nigerian children. Community-based interventions for reducing under-5 deaths are needed and should target children born to mothers of low socioeconomic status. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

[Causes of death of German refugee children in 1945].

PubMed

Lylloff, K

2000-02-28

In the last months of the second World War, 250,000 German refugees landed in Denmark. A third of them were children under the age of 15. Seven thousand German refugee children under the age of five died in Denmark in 1945. Using birth certificates and death certificates from the Danish national archives and burial lists from the German refugee cemetaries I have collected data to reveal causes of death, age distributions and time of the deaths of the 7000 fatal cases among children under the age of five. Three thousand children under the age of one, 2000 children one year old and 2000 children 2-4 years old died. Most of them died just before and after the German surrender, but many died in the months following the German surrender. The infant mortality was extremely high all during 1945. The infants died from diseases due to malnutrition, but the older the children the more likely the causes of death were due to infectious diseases such as pneumonia, measles, diphtheria and gastroenteritis.

Climate Change and Simulation of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: A Case Study of Mashhad, Iran.

PubMed

Baaghideh, Mohammad; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh

2017-03-01

Weather and climate play a significant role in human health. We are accustomed to affects the weather conditions. By increasing or decreasing the environment temperature or change of seasons, some diseases become prevalent or remove. This study investigated the role of temperature in cardiovascular disease mortality of city of Mashhad in the current decade and its simulation in the future decades under conditions of climate change. Cardiovascular disease mortality data and the daily temperatures data were used during (2004-2013) period. First, the correlation between cardiovascular disease mortality and maximum and minimum temperatures were calculated then by using General Circulation Model, Emissions Scenarios, and temperature data were extracted for the next five decades and finally, mortality was simulated. There is a strong positive association between maximum temperature and mortality (r= 0.83, P -value<0.01), also observed a negative and weak but significant association between minimum temperatures and mortality. The results obtained from simulation show increased temperature in the next decades in Mashhad and a 1 °C increase in maximum temperature is associated with a 4.27% (95%CI: 0.91, 7.00) increase in Cardiovascular disease mortality. By increasing temperature and the number of hot days the cardiovascular disease mortality increases and these increases will be intensified in the future decades. Therefore, necessary preventive measures are required to mitigate temperature effects with greater attention to vulnerable group.

Accuracy, calibration and clinical performance of the EuroSCORE: can we reduce the number of variables?

PubMed

Ranucci, Marco; Castelvecchio, Serenella; Menicanti, Lorenzo; Frigiola, Alessandro; Pelissero, Gabriele

2010-03-01

The European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE) is currently used in many institutions and is considered a reference tool in many countries. We hypothesised that too many variables were included in the EuroSCORE using limited patient series. We tested different models using a limited number of variables. A total of 11150 adult patients undergoing cardiac operations at our institution (2001-2007) were retrospectively analysed. The 17 risk factors composing the EuroSCORE were separately analysed and ranked for accuracy of prediction of hospital mortality. Seventeen models were created by progressively including one factor at a time. The models were compared for accuracy with a receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis and area under the curve (AUC) evaluation. Calibration was tested with Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics. Clinical performance was assessed by comparing the predicted with the observed mortality rates. The best accuracy (AUC 0.76) was obtained using a model including only age, left ventricular ejection fraction, serum creatinine, emergency operation and non-isolated coronary operation. The EuroSCORE AUC (0.75) was not significantly different. Calibration and clinical performance were better in the five-factor model than in the EuroSCORE. Only in high-risk patients were 12 factors needed to achieve a good performance. Including many factors in multivariable logistic models increases the risk for overfitting, multicollinearity and human error. A five-factor model offers the same level of accuracy but demonstrated better calibration and clinical performance. Models with a limited number of factors may work better than complex models when applied to a limited number of patients. Copyright (c) 2009 European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Factors associated with bat mortality at wind energy facilities in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Maureen; Beston, Julie A.; Etterson, Matthew A.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Loss, Scott R.

2017-01-01

Hundreds of thousands of bats are killed annually by colliding with wind turbines in the U.S., yet little is known about factors causing variation in mortality across wind energy facilities. We conducted a quantitative synthesis of bat collision mortality with wind turbines by reviewing 218 North American studies representing 100 wind energy facilities. This data set, the largest compiled for bats to date, provides further evidence that collision mortality is greatest for migratory tree-roosting species (Hoary Bat [Lasiurus cinereus], Eastern Red Bat [Lasiurus borealis], Silver-haired Bat [Lasionycteris noctivagans]) and from July to October. Based on 40 U.S. studies meeting inclusion criteria and analyzed under a common statistical framework to account for methodological variation, we found support for an inverse relationship between bat mortality and percent grassland cover surrounding wind energy facilities. At a national scale, grassland cover may best reflect openness of the landscape, a factor generally associated with reduced activity and abundance of tree-roosting species that may also reduce turbine collisions. Further representative sampling of wind energy facilities is required to validate this pattern. Ecologically informed placement of wind energy facilities involves multiple considerations, including not only factors associated with bat mortality, but also factors associated with bird collision mortality, indirect habitat-related impacts to all species, and overall ecosystem impacts.

Docosahexaenoic acid is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in hemodialysis patients.

PubMed

Hamazaki, Kei; Terashima, Yoshihiro; Itomura, Miho; Sawazaki, Shigeki; Inagaki, Hitoshi; Kuroda, Masahiro; Tomita, Shin; Hirata, Hitoshi; Inadera, Hidekuni; Hamazaki, Tomohito

2011-01-01

Dietary n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) and eicosapentaenoic acid have been shown to reduce cardiovascular mortality. Patients on hemodialysis (HD) have a very high mortality from cardiovascular disease. Fish consumption reduces all-cause mortality in patients on HD. Moreover, n-3 PUFAs, especially DHA levels in red blood cells (RBCs), are associated with arteriosclerosis in patients on HD. The aim of this study was to determine whether DHA levels in RBCs predict the mortality of patients on HD in a prospective cohort study. A cohort of 176 patients (64.1 ± 12.0 (mean ± SD) years of age, 96 men and 80 women) under HD treatment was studied. The fatty acid composition of their RBCs was analyzed by gas chromatography. During the study period of 5 years, 54 deaths occurred. After adjustment for 10 confounding factors, the Cox hazard ratio of all-cause mortality of the patients on HD in the highest DHA tertile (>8.1%, 15 deaths) was 0.43 (95% CI 0.21-0.88) compared with those patients in the lowest DHA tertile (<7.2%, 21 deaths). The findings suggest that the level of DHA in RBCs could be an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in patients on HD. Copyright © 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Hearing-aid use and long-term health outcomes: Hearing handicap, mental health, social engagement, cognitive function, physical health, and mortality.

PubMed

Dawes, Piers; Cruickshanks, Karen J; Fischer, Mary E; Klein, Barbara E K; Klein, Ronald; Nondahl, David M

2015-01-01

To clarify the impact of hearing aids on mental health, social engagement, cognitive function, and physical health outcomes in older adults with hearing impairment. We assessed hearing handicap (hearing handicap inventory for the elderly; HHIE-S), cognition (mini mental state exam, trail making, auditory verbal learning, digit-symbol substitution, verbal fluency, incidence of cognitive impairment), physical health (SF-12 physical component, basic and instrumental activities of daily living, mortality), social engagement (hours per week spent in solitary activities), and mental health (SF-12 mental component) at baseline, five years prior to baseline, and five and 11 years after baseline. Community-dwelling older adults with hearing impairment (N = 666) from the epidemiology of hearing loss study cohort. There were no significant differences between hearing-aid users and non-users in cognitive, social engagement, or mental health outcomes at any time point. Aided HHIE-S was significantly better than unaided HHIE-S. At 11 years hearing-aid users had significantly better SF-12 physical health scores (46.2 versus 41.2; p = 0.03). There was no difference in incidence of cognitive impairment or mortality. There was no evidence that hearing aids promote cognitive function, mental health, or social engagement. Hearing aids may reduce hearing handicap and promote better physical health.

Corruption costs lives: a cross-country study using an IV approach.

PubMed

Lio, Mon-Chi; Lee, Ming-Hsuan

2016-04-01

This study quantitatively estimates the effects of corruption on five major health indicators by using recent cross-country panel data covering 119 countries for the period of 2005-2011. The corruption indicators provided by the World Bank and Transparency International are used, and both the two-way fixed effect and the two-stage least squares approaches are employed for our estimation. The estimation results show that, in general, corruption is negatively associated with a country's health outcomes. A lower level of corruption or a better control of corruption in a country can lead to longer life expectancy, a lower infant mortality rate and a lower under-five mortality rate for citizens. However, our estimation finds no significant association between corruption and individual diseases including human immunodeficiency virus prevalence and tuberculosis incidence. The findings suggest that corruption reduction itself is an effective method to promote health. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reduced transpiration response to precipitation pulses precedes mortality in a piñon-juniper woodland subject to prolonged drought.

PubMed

Plaut, Jennifer A; Wadsworth, W Duncan; Pangle, Robert; Yepez, Enrico A; McDowell, Nate G; Pockman, William T

2013-10-01

Global climate change is predicted to alter the intensity and duration of droughts, but the effects of changing precipitation patterns on vegetation mortality are difficult to predict. Our objective was to determine whether prolonged drought or above-average precipitation altered the capacity to respond to the individual precipitation pulses that drive productivity and survival. We analyzed 5 yr of data from a rainfall manipulation experiment in piñon-juniper (Pinus edulis-Juniperus monosperma) woodland using mixed effects models of transpiration response to event size, antecedent soil moisture, and post-event vapor pressure deficit. Replicated treatments included irrigation, drought, ambient control and infrastructure control. Mortality was highest under drought, and the reduced post-pulse transpiration in the droughted trees that died was attributable to treatment effects beyond drier antecedent conditions and reduced event size. In particular, trees that died were nearly unresponsive to antecedent shallow soil moisture, suggesting reduced shallow absorbing root area. Irrigated trees showed an enhanced response to precipitation pulses. Prolonged drought initiates a downward spiral whereby trees are increasingly unable to utilize pulsed soil moisture. Thus, the additive effects of future, more frequent droughts may increase drought-related mortality. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Effects of Health-Related Food Taxes and Subsidies on Mortality from Diet-Related Disease in New Zealand: An Econometric-Epidemiologic Modelling Study

PubMed Central

Ni Mhurchu, Cliona; Eyles, Helen; Genc, Murat; Scarborough, Peter; Rayner, Mike; Mizdrak, Anja; Nnoaham, Kelechi; Blakely, Tony

2015-01-01

Background Health-related food taxes and subsidies may promote healthier diets and reduce mortality. Our aim was to estimate the effects of health-related food taxes and subsidies on deaths prevented or postponed (DPP) in New Zealand. Methods A macrosimulation model based on household expenditure data, demand elasticities and population impact fractions for 18 diet-related diseases was used to estimate effects of five tax and subsidy regimens. We used price elasticity values for 24 major commonly consumed food groups in New Zealand, and food expenditure data from national Household Economic Surveys. Changes in mortality from cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and other diet-related diseases were estimated. Findings A 20% subsidy on fruit and vegetables would result in 560 (95% uncertainty interval, 400 to 700) DPP each year (1.9% annual all-cause mortality). A 20% tax on major dietary sources of saturated fat would result in 1,500 (950 to 2,100) DPP (5.0%), and a 20% tax on major dietary sources of sodium would result in 2,000 (1300 to 2,700) DPP (6.8%). Combining taxes on saturated fat and sodium with a fruit and vegetable subsidy would result in 2,400 (1,800 to 3,000) DPP (8.1% mortality annually). A tax on major dietary sources of greenhouse gas emissions would generate 1,200 (750 to 1,700) DPP annually (4.0%). Effects were similar or greater for Maori and low-income households in relative terms. Conclusions Health-related food taxes and subsidies could improve diets and reduce mortality from diet-related disease in New Zealand. Our study adds to the growing evidence base suggesting food pricing policies should improve population health and reduce inequalities, but there is still much work to be done to improve estimation of health impacts. PMID:26154289

Critically ill children with pandemic influenza (H1N1) in pediatric intensive care units in Turkey.

PubMed

Kendirli, Tanil; Demirkol, Demet; Yildizdas, Dinçer; Anil, Ayse Berna; Asilioğlu, Nazik; Karapinar, Bülent; Erkek, Nilgün; Sevketoğlu, Esra; Dursun, Oğuz; Arslanköylü, Ali Ertuğ; Bayrakçi, Benan; Bosnak, Mehmet; Köroğlu, Tolga; Horoz, Ozgür Ozden; Citak, Agop; Kesici, Selman; Ates, Can; Karaböcüoğlu, Metin; Ince, Erdal

2012-01-01

To outline the epidemiologic features, clinical presentation, clinical courses, and outcomes in critically ill children with pandemic influenza in pediatric intensive care units. Retrospective, observational, multicenter study. Thirteen tertiary pediatric intensive care units in Turkey. Eighty-three children with confirmed infection attributable to pandemic influenza detected by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction assay between November 1 and December 31, 2009 who were admitted to critical care units. None. During a 2-month period, 532 children were hospitalized with pandemic influenza and 83 (15.6%) needed critical care. For the 83 patients requiring critical care, the median age was 42 (range, 2-204) months, with 24 (28.9%) and 48 (57.8%) of patients younger than 2 and 5 yrs, respectively. Twenty (24.1%) patients had no underlying illness, but 63 (75.9%) children had an underlying chronic illness. Indications for admission to the pediatric intensive care unit were respiratory failure in 66 (79.5%), neurologic deterioration in six (7.2%), and gastrointestinal symptoms in five (6.0%) patients. Acute lung injury was diagnosed in 23 (27.7%), acute respiratory distress syndrome was diagnosed in 34 (41%), and 51 (61.4%) patients were mechanically ventilated. Oseltamivir was used in 80 (96%) patients. The mortality rate for children with pandemic influenza 2009 was 30.1% compared to an overall mortality rate of 13.7% (p = .0016) among pediatric intensive care unit patients without pandemic influenza during the study period. Also, the mortality rate was 31.7% in patients with comorbidities and 25.0% in previously healthy children (p = .567). The cause of death was primary pandemic influenza infection in 16 (64%), nosocomial infection in four (16%), and primary disease progression in five (20%) patients. The odds ratio for respiratory failure was 14.7 (95% confidence interval, 1.85-111.11), and odds ratio for mechanical ventilation was 27.7 (95% confidence interval, 0.003-200). Severe disease and high mortality rates were seen in children with pandemic influenza. Death attributable to pandemic influenza occurred in all age groups of children with or without underlying illness. Multiple organ dysfunction syndrome is associated with increased mortality, and death is frequently secondary to severe lung infection caused by pandemic influenza.

Can we achieve Millennium Development Goal 4? New analysis of country trends and forecasts of under-5 mortality to 2015.

PubMed

Murray, Christopher J L; Laakso, Thomas; Shibuya, Kenji; Hill, Kenneth; Lopez, Alan D

2007-09-22

Global efforts have increased the accuracy and timeliness of estimates of under-5 mortality; however, these estimates fail to use all data available, do not use transparent and reproducible methods, do not distinguish predictions from measurements, and provide no indication of uncertainty around point estimates. We aimed to develop new reproducible methods and reanalyse existing data to elucidate detailed time trends. We merged available databases, added to them when possible, and then applied Loess regression to estimate past trends and forecast to 2015 for 172 countries. We developed uncertainty estimates based on different model specifications and estimated levels and trends in neonatal, post-neonatal, and childhood mortality. Global under-5 mortality has fallen from 110 (109-110) per 1000 in 1980 to 72 (70-74) per 1000 in 2005. Child deaths worldwide have decreased from 13.5 (13.4-13.6) million in 1980 to an estimated 9.7 (9.5-10.0) million in 2005. Global under-5 mortality is expected to decline by 27% from 1990 to 2015, substantially less than the target of Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) of a 67% decrease. Several regions in Latin America, north Africa, the Middle East, Europe, and southeast Asia have had consistent annual rates of decline in excess of 4% over 35 years. Global progress on MDG4 is dominated by slow reductions in sub-Saharan Africa, which also has the slowest rates of decline in fertility. Globally, we are not doing a better job of reducing child mortality now than we were three decades ago. Further improvements in the quality and timeliness of child-mortality measurements should be possible by more fully using existing datasets and applying standard analytical strategies.

Home management of diarrhea among underfives in a rural community in Kenya: household perceptions and practices.

PubMed

Othero, Doreen M; Orago, Alloys S S; Groenewegen, Ted; Kaseje, Dan O; Otengah, P A

2008-12-01

Diarrheal disease is a major cause of morbidity and mortality among under-fives especially in rural and peri-urban communities in developing countries. Home management of diarrhea is one of the key household practices targeted for enhancement in the Community Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (C-IMCI) strategy. The aim of this study was to determine the perceptions of mothers/caregivers regarding the causes of diarrhea among under-fives and how it was managed in the home before seeking help from Community Health Workers or health facilities. A household longitudinal study was conducted in Nyando district, Kenya in 2004-2006 adopting both qualitative and quantitative approaches. A total of 927 mothers/caregivers of under-fives participated in the study. Perceived causes of childhood diarrhoea, action taken during diarrhea, fluid intake, recognition of signs of dehydration, feeding during convalescence, adherence to treatment and advice. Majority of the respondents 807 (87.1%) reported that their children had suffered from diarrhea within the last 2 weeks before commencement of the study. Diarrhea was found to contribute to 48% of child mortality in the study area. Perceived causes of diarrhea were: unclean water 524 (55.6%), contaminated food 508 (54.9%), bad eye 464 (50.0%), false teeth 423 (45.6%) and breast milk 331 (35.8%). More than 70% of mothers decreased fluid intake during diarrhea episodes. The mothers perceived wheat flour, rice water and selected herbs as anti-diarrheal agents. During illness, 239 (27.8%) of the children were reported not to have drunk any fluids at all, 487 (52.5%) drunk much less and only 93 (10.0%) were reported to have drunk more than usual. A significant 831 (89.6%) withheld milk including breast milk with the notion that it enhanced diarrhea. Based on these findings, there is need to develop and implement interactive communication strategies for the health workers and mothers to address perceptions and misconceptions and facilitate positive change in the household practice on management of diarrhea among under-fives.

Malnutrition among children under the age of five in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC): does geographic location matter?

PubMed

Kandala, Ngianga-Bakwin; Madungu, Tumwaka P; Emina, Jacques B O; Nzita, Kikhela P D; Cappuccio, Francesco P

2011-04-25

Although there are inequalities in child health and survival in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the influence of distal determinants such as geographic location on children's nutritional status is still unclear. We investigate the impact of geographic location on child nutritional status by mapping the residual net effect of malnutrition while accounting for important risk factors. We examine spatial variation in under-five malnutrition with flexible geo-additive semi-parametric mixed model while simultaneously controlling for spatial dependence and possibly nonlinear effects of covariates within a simultaneous, coherent regression framework based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. Individual data records were constructed for children. Each record represents a child and consists of nutritional status information and a list of covariates. For the 8,992 children born within the last five years before the survey, 3,663 children have information on anthropometric measures.Our novel empirical approach is able to flexibly determine to what extent the substantial spatial pattern of malnutrition is driven by detectable factors such as socioeconomic factors and can be attributable to unmeasured factors such as conflicts, political, environmental and cultural factors. Although childhood malnutrition was more pronounced in all provinces of the DRC, after accounting for the location's effects, geographic differences were significant: malnutrition was significantly higher in rural areas compared to urban centres and this difference persisted after multiple adjustments. The findings suggest that models of nutritional intervention must be carefully specified with regard to residential location. Childhood malnutrition is spatially structured and rates remain very high in the provinces that rely on the mining industry and comparable to the level seen in Eastern provinces under conflicts. Even in provinces such as Bas-Congo that produce foods, childhood malnutrition is higher probably because of the economic decision to sell more than the population consumes. Improving maternal and child nutritional status is a prerequisite for achieving MDG 4, to reduce child mortality rate in the DRC.

Cancer risk associated with chronic diseases and disease markers: prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Tu, Huakang; Wen, Chi Pang; Tsai, Shan Pou; Chow, Wong-Ho; Wen, Christopher; Ye, Yuanqing; Zhao, Hua; Tsai, Min Kuang; Huang, Maosheng; Dinney, Colin P; Tsao, Chwen Keng; Wu, Xifeng

2018-01-31

To assess the independent and joint associations of major chronic diseases and disease markers with cancer risk and to explore the benefit of physical activity in reducing the cancer risk associated with chronic diseases and disease markers. Prospective cohort study. Standard medical screening program in Taiwan. 405 878 participants, for whom cardiovascular disease markers (blood pressure, total cholesterol, and heart rate), diabetes, chronic kidney disease markers (proteinuria and glomerular filtration rate), pulmonary disease, and gouty arthritis marker (uric acid) were measured or diagnosed according to standard methods, were followed for an average of 8.7 years. Cancer incidence and cancer mortality. A statistically significantly increased risk of incident cancer was observed for the eight diseases and markers individually (except blood pressure and pulmonary disease), with adjusted hazard ratios ranging from 1.07 to 1.44. All eight diseases and markers were statistically significantly associated with risk of cancer death, with adjusted hazard ratios ranging from 1.12 to 1.70. Chronic disease risk scores summarizing the eight diseases and markers were positively associated with cancer risk in a dose-response manner, with the highest scores associated with a 2.21-fold (95% confidence interval 1.77-fold to 2.75-fold) and 4.00-fold (2.84-fold to 5.63-fold) higher cancer incidence and cancer mortality, respectively. High chronic disease risk scores were associated with substantial years of life lost, and the highest scores were associated with 13.3 years of life lost in men and 15.9 years of life lost in women. The population attributable fractions of cancer incidence or cancer mortality from the eight chronic diseases and markers together were comparable to those from five major lifestyle factors combined (cancer incidence: 20.5% v 24.8%; cancer mortality: 38.9% v 39.7%). Among physically active (versus inactive) participants, the increased cancer risk associated with chronic diseases and markers was attenuated by 48% for cancer incidence and 27% for cancer mortality. Chronic disease is an overlooked risk factor for cancer, as important as five major lifestyle factors combined. In this study, chronic diseases contributed to more than one fifth of the risk for incident cancer and more than one third of the risk for cancer death. Physical activity is associated with a nearly 40% reduction in the cancer risk associated with chronic diseases. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Biomarkers of aging in Drosophila.

PubMed

Jacobson, Jake; Lambert, Adrian J; Portero-Otín, Manuel; Pamplona, Reinald; Magwere, Tapiwanashe; Miwa, Satomi; Driege, Yasmine; Brand, Martin D; Partridge, Linda

2010-08-01

Low environmental temperature and dietary restriction (DR) extend lifespan in diverse organisms. In the fruit fly Drosophila, switching flies between temperatures alters the rate at which mortality subsequently increases with age but does not reverse mortality rate. In contrast, DR acts acutely to lower mortality risk; flies switched between control feeding and DR show a rapid reversal of mortality rate. Dietary restriction thus does not slow accumulation of aging-related damage. Molecular species that track the effects of temperatures on mortality but are unaltered with switches in diet are therefore potential biomarkers of aging-related damage. However, molecular species that switch upon instigation or withdrawal of DR are thus potential biomarkers of mechanisms underlying risk of mortality, but not of aging-related damage. Using this approach, we assessed several commonly used biomarkers of aging-related damage. Accumulation of fluorescent advanced glycation end products (AGEs) correlated strongly with mortality rate of flies at different temperatures but was independent of diet. Hence, fluorescent AGEs are biomarkers of aging-related damage in flies. In contrast, five oxidized and glycated protein adducts accumulated with age, but were reversible with both temperature and diet, and are therefore not markers either of acute risk of dying or of aging-related damage. Our approach provides a powerful method for identification of biomarkers of aging.

Biomarkers of ageing in Drosophila

PubMed Central

Jacobson, Jake; Portero-Otín, Manuel; Pamplona, Reinald; Magwere, Tapiwanashe; Miwa, Satomi; Driege, Yasmine; Brand, Martin D.; Partridge, Linda

2015-01-01

Summary Low environmental temperature and dietary restriction (DR) extend lifespan in diverse organisms. In the fruit fly Drosophila, switching flies between temperatures alters the rate at which mortality subsequently increases with age but does not reverse mortality rate. In contrast, DR acts acutely to lower mortality risk; flies switched between control feeding and DR show a rapid reversal of mortality rate. DR thus does not slow accumulation of ageing-related damage. Molecular species that track the effects of temperatures on mortality but are unaltered with switches in diet are therefore potential biomarkers of ageing-related damage. However, molecular species that switch upon instigation or withdrawal of DR are thus potential biomarkers of mechanisms underlying risk of mortality, but not of ageing-related damage. Using this approach, we assessed several commonly used biomarkers of ageing-related damage. Accumulation of fluorescent advanced glycation end products (AGEs) correlated strongly with mortality rate of flies at different temperatures but was independent of diet. Hence fluorescent AGEs are biomarkers of ageing-related damage in flies. In contrast, five oxidised and glycated protein adducts accumulated with age, but were reversible with both temperature and diet, and are therefore not markers either of acute risk of dying or of ageing-related damage. Our approach provides a powerful method for identification of biomarkers of ageing. PMID:20367621

Optimal Suturing Technique and Number of Sutures for Surgical Implantation of Acoustic Transmitters in Juvenile Salmonids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deters, Katherine A.; Brown, Richard S.; Boyd, James W.

2012-01-02

The size reduction of acoustic transmitters has led to a reduction in the length of incision needed to implant a transmitter. Smaller suture knot profiles and fewer sutures may be adequate for closing an incision used to surgically implant an acoustic microtransmitter. As a result, faster surgery times and reduced tissue trauma could lead to increased survival and decreased infection for implanted fish. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of five suturing techniques on mortality, tag and suture retention, incision openness, ulceration, and redness in juvenile Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha implanted with acoustic microtransmitters. Suturing wasmore » performed by three surgeons, and study fish were held at two water temperatures (12°C and 17°C). Mortality was low and tag retention was high for all treatments on all examination days (7, 14, 21, and 28 days post-surgery). Because there was surgeon variation in suture retention among treatments, further analyses included only the one surgeon who received feedback training in all suturing techniques. Incision openness and tissue redness did not differ among treatments. The only difference observed among treatments was in tissue ulceration. Incisions closed with a horizontal mattress pattern had more ulceration than other treatments among fish held for 28 days at 17°C. Results from this study suggest that one simple interrupted 1 × 1 × 1 × 1 suture is adequate for closing incisions on fish under most circumstances. However, in dynamic environments, two simple interrupted 1 × 1 × 1 × 1 sutures should provide adequate incision closure. Reducing bias in survival and behavior tagging studies is important when making comparisons to the migrating salmon population. Therefore, by minimizing the effects of tagging on juvenile salmon (reduced tissue trauma and reduced surgery time), researchers can more accurately estimate survival and behavior.« less

Measuring progress towards achieving Millennium Development Goals in small populations: is under-five mortality in Tuvalu declining?

PubMed

Taylor, Richard; Linhart, Christine; Hayes, Geoffrey; Homasi, Steven

2014-08-01

Infant mortality rates (IMR) and under-five mortality rates (U5MR) in Tuvalu (2010 population 11,149) for 1990-2011 were evaluated to determine best estimates of levels and trends. Estimates were graphed over time to identify trends/inconsistencies, and censored for reliability/plausibility. Where possible, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and tests for linear trend were calculated. Ministry of Health (MoH) data indicates IMR and U5MR (per 1,000 live births) declined over 1990-2008: IMR 62 (95%CI 46-81) for 1991-93 (51 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths); U5MR 67 (95%CI 50-87) for 1991-93 (55 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths). The 2007 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) suggests recent trends are increasing: IMR 24 for 1998-2002 to 31 (95%CI 20-42) for 2003-07; U5MR 29 for 1998-2002 to 36 (95%CI 30-43) for 2003-07 (deaths not provided). Tests for linear trend and 95%CIs indicate MoH declines are statistically significant, but recent increased estimates from DHS are not, and could be affected by recall bias. Small populations provide challenges in interpretation of IMR/U5MR trends. To ensure the correct interpretation of rates, CIs (95%) and tests for trend should be calculated. Tuvalu has experienced steady decline in IMR/U5MR over the past 20 years. © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

Contribution of Mexico's Universal Immunization Program to the Fourth Millennium Development Goal.

PubMed

Richardson, Vesta; Sánchez-Uribe, Edgar; Esparza-Aguilar, Marcelino; Esteves-Jaramillo, Alejandra; Suárez-Idueta, Lorena

2014-04-01

To identify and describe 1) progress achieved thus far in meeting the commitments of the Fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 4) in Mexico, mainly the contribution of the Universal Immunization Program (UIP) over the last 20 years, and 2) new opportunities for further reducing mortality among children under 5 years old. An observational, descriptive, retrospective study was carried out to examine registered causes of death in children under 5 between 1990 and 2010. Indicators were built according to the recommendations of the United Nations. In 2010, deaths among children under 5 decreased 64.3% compared to the baseline (1990) figure. Of the total deaths of the children under 5, the neonatal period was the most affected (52.8%), followed by the 1 to 11 months (30.9%), and the 12 to 59 months (16.2%) groups. A 34% overall mortality reduction was observed after the universalization of immunization against influenza, rotavirus, and pneumococcus in children under 5. Despite a significant reduction in under-5 mortality in Mexico over the last 20 years, largely due to the successes of the UIP, several challenges remain, particularly in improving preventive and curative services during pre- and postnatal care.

Experimental hut evaluation of bednets treated with an organophosphate (chlorpyrifos-methyl) or a pyrethroid (lambdacyhalothrin) alone and in combination against insecticide-resistant Anopheles gambiae and Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes

PubMed Central

Asidi, Alex N; N' Guessan, Raphael; Koffi, Alphonsine A; Curtis, Christopher F; Hougard, Jean-Marc; Chandre, Fabrice; Corbel, Vincent; Darriet, Frédéric; Zaim, Morteza; Rowland, Mark W

2005-01-01

Background Pyrethroid resistant mosquitoes are becoming increasingly common in parts of Africa. It is important to identify alternative insecticides which, if necessary, could be used to replace or supplement the pyrethroids for use on treated nets. Certain compounds of an earlier generation of insecticides, the organophosphates may have potential as net treatments. Methods Comparative studies of chlorpyrifos-methyl (CM), an organophosphate with low mammalian toxicity, and lambdacyhalothrin (L), a pyrethroid, were conducted in experimental huts in Côte d'Ivoire, West Africa. Anopheles gambiae and Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes from the area are resistant to pyrethroids and organophosphates (kdr and insensitive acetylcholinesterase Ace.1R). Several treatments and application rates on intact or holed nets were evaluated, including single treatments, mixtures, and differential wall/ceiling treatments. Results and Conclusion All of the treatments were effective in reducing blood feeding from sleepers under the nets and in killing both species of mosquito, despite the presence of the kdr and Ace.1R genes at high frequency. In most cases, the effects of the various treatments did not differ significantly. Five washes of the nets in soap solution did not reduce the impact of the insecticides on A. gambiae mortality, but did lead to an increase in blood feeding. The three combinations performed no differently from the single insecticide treatments, but the low dose mixture performed encouragingly well indicating that such combinations might be used for controlling insecticide resistant mosquitoes. Mortality of mosquitoes that carried both Ace.1R and Ace.1S genes did not differ significantly from mosquitoes that carried only Ace.1S genes on any of the treated nets, indicating that the Ace.1R allele does not confer effective resistance to chlorpyrifos-methyl under the realistic conditions of an experimental hut. PMID:15918909

Predictors of the number of under-five malnourished children in Bangladesh: application of the generalized poisson regression model

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Malnutrition is one of the principal causes of child mortality in developing countries including Bangladesh. According to our knowledge, most of the available studies, that addressed the issue of malnutrition among under-five children, considered the categorical (dichotomous/polychotomous) outcome variables and applied logistic regression (binary/multinomial) to find their predictors. In this study malnutrition variable (i.e. outcome) is defined as the number of under-five malnourished children in a family, which is a non-negative count variable. The purposes of the study are (i) to demonstrate the applicability of the generalized Poisson regression (GPR) model as an alternative of other statistical methods and (ii) to find some predictors of this outcome variable. Methods The data is extracted from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) 2007. Briefly, this survey employs a nationally representative sample which is based on a two-stage stratified sample of households. A total of 4,460 under-five children is analysed using various statistical techniques namely Chi-square test and GPR model. Results The GPR model (as compared to the standard Poisson regression and negative Binomial regression) is found to be justified to study the above-mentioned outcome variable because of its under-dispersion (variance < mean) property. Our study also identify several significant predictors of the outcome variable namely mother’s education, father’s education, wealth index, sanitation status, source of drinking water, and total number of children ever born to a woman. Conclusions Consistencies of our findings in light of many other studies suggest that the GPR model is an ideal alternative of other statistical models to analyse the number of under-five malnourished children in a family. Strategies based on significant predictors may improve the nutritional status of children in Bangladesh. PMID:23297699

Is sibling rivalry fatal?: siblings and mortality clustering.

PubMed

Kippen, Rebecca; Walters, Sarah

2012-01-01

Evidence drawn from nineteenth-century Belgian population registers shows that the presence of similarly aged siblings competing for resources within a household increases the probability of death for children younger than five, even when controlling for the preceding birth interval and multiple births. Furthermore, in this period of Belgian history, such mortality tended to cluster in certain families. The findings suggest the importance of segmenting the mortality of siblings younger than five by age group, of considering the presence of siblings as a time-varying covariate, and of factoring mortality clustering into analyses.

Elevated seawater temperature, not pCO2, negatively affects post-spawning adult mussels (Mytilus edulis) under food limitation.

PubMed

Clements, Jeff C; Hicks, Carla; Tremblay, Réjan; Comeau, Luc A

2018-01-01

Pre-spawning blue mussels ( Mytilus edulis ) appear sensitive to elevated temperature and robust to elevated p CO 2 ; however, the effects of these stressors soon after investing energy into spawning remain unknown. Furthermore, while studies suggest that elevated p CO 2 affects the byssal attachment strength of Mytilus trossulus from southern latitudes, p CO 2 and temperature impacts on the byssus strength of other species at higher latitudes remain undocumented. In a 90 day laboratory experiment, we exposed post-spawning adult blue mussels ( M. edulis ) from Atlantic Canada to three p CO 2 levels ( p CO 2 ~625, 1295 and 2440 μatm) at two different temperatures (16°C and 22°C) and assessed energetic reserves on Day 90, byssal attachment strength on Days 30 and 60, and condition index and mortality on Days 30, 60 and 90. Results indicated that glycogen content was negatively affected under elevated temperature, but protein, lipid, and overall energy content were unaffected. Reduced glycogen content under elevated temperature was associated with reduced condition index, reduced byssal thread attachment strength, and increased mortality; elevated p CO 2 had no effects. Overall, these results suggest that the glycogen reserves of post-spawning adult M. edulis are sensitive to elevated temperature, and can result in reduced health and byssal attachment strength, leading to increased mortality. These results are similar to those reported for pre-spawning mussels and suggest that post-spawning blue mussels are tolerant to elevated p CO 2 and sensitive to elevated temperature. In contrast to previous studies, however, elevated pCO 2 did not affect byssus strength, suggesting that negative effects of elevated p CO 2 on byssus strength are not universal.

Shrub resprouting response after fuel reduction treatments: comparison of prescribed burning, clearing and mastication.

PubMed

Fernández, Cristina; Vega, José A; Fonturbel, Teresa

2013-03-15

Fuel reduction treatments are commonly used to reduce the risk of severe wildfire. However, more information about the effects on plant resprouting is needed to help land managers select the most appropriate treatment. To address this question, we evaluated the resprouting ability of five shrub species after the application of different types of fuel reduction methods (prescribed burning, clearing and mastication) in two contrasting shrubland areas in northern Spain. The shrub species were Erica australis, Pterospartum tridentatum and Halimium lasianthum spp. alyssoides, Ulex gallii and Erica cinerea. For most of the species under study (E. australis, P. tridentatum, H. lasianthum spp. alyssoides and U. gallii), neither plant mortality nor the number nor length of sprouted shoots per plant differed between treatments, although in E. cinerea the number of shoots was more negatively affected by prescribed burning than by clearing or mastication. The pre-treatment plant size did not affect plant mortality or plant resprouting response, suggesting that this parameter alone is not a good indicator of plant resprouting after fuel reduction treatments. Stem minimum diameter after treatments, a proxy of treatment severity, was not related to plant mortality, number or length of resprouted shoots. The duration of temperatures higher than 300 °C during burning in plant crown had a negative effect on the length of resprouted shoots, only in E. cinerea. The results show that fuel reduction treatments did not prevent shrub response in any case. Some reflections on the applicability of treatments are discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for postneonatal, infant, child and under-5 mortality in Nigeria: a pooled cross-sectional analysis

PubMed Central

Ezeh, Osita Kingsley; Agho, Kingsley Emwinyore; Dibley, Michael John; Hall, John Joseph; Page, Andrew Nicolas

2015-01-01

Objectives To identify common factors associated with post-neonatal, infant, child and under-5 mortality in Nigeria. Design, setting and participants A cross-sectional data of three Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHS) for the years 2003, 2008 and 2013 were used. A multistage, stratified, cluster random sampling method was used to gather information on 63 844 singleton live-born infants of the most recent birth of a mother within a 5-year period before each survey was examined using cox regression models. Main outcome measures Postneonatal mortality (death between 1 and 11 months), infant mortality (death between birth and 11 months), child mortality (death between 12 and 59 months) and under-5 mortality (death between birth and 59 months). Results Multivariable analyses indicated that children born to mothers with no formal education was significantly associated with mortality across all four age ranges (adjusted HR=1.30, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.66 for postneonatal; HR=1.38, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.84 for infant; HR=2.13, 95% CI 1.56 to 2.89 for child; HR=1.19, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.41 for under-5). Other significant factors included living in rural areas (HR=1.48, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.89 for postneonatal; HR=1.23, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.47 for infant; HR=1.52, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.99 for child; HR=1.29, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.50 for under-5), and poor households (HR=2.47, 95% CI 1.76 to 3.47 for postneonatal; HR=1.40, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.78 for infant; HR=1.72, 95% CI 1.19 to 2.49 for child; HR=1.43, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.76 for under-5). Conclusions This study found that no formal education, poor households and living in rural areas increased the risk of postneonatal, infant, child and under-5 mortality among Nigerian children. Community-based interventions for reducing under-5 deaths are needed and should target children born to mothers of low socioeconomic status. PMID:25818271

An individual patient meta-analysis of five randomized trials assessing the effects of cardiac resynchronization therapy on morbidity and mortality in patients with symptomatic heart failure.

PubMed

Cleland, John G; Abraham, William T; Linde, Cecilia; Gold, Michael R; Young, James B; Claude Daubert, J; Sherfesee, Lou; Wells, George A; Tang, Anthony S L

2013-12-01

Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) with or without a defibrillator reduces morbidity and mortality in selected patients with heart failure (HF) but response can be variable. We sought to identify pre-implantation variables that predict the response to CRT in a meta-analysis using individual patient-data. An individual patient meta-analysis of five randomized trials, funded by Medtronic, comparing CRT either with no active device or with a defibrillator was conducted, including the following baseline variables: age, sex, New York Heart Association class, aetiology, QRS morphology, QRS duration, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and systolic blood pressure. Outcomes were all-cause mortality and first hospitalization for HF or death. Of 3782 patients in sinus rhythm, median (inter-quartile range) age was 66 (58-73) years, QRS duration was 160 (146-176) ms, LVEF was 24 (20-28)%, and 78% had left bundle branch block. A multivariable model suggested that only QRS duration predicted the magnitude of the effect of CRT on outcomes. Further analysis produced estimated hazard ratios for the effect of CRT on all-cause mortality and on the composite of first hospitalization for HF or death that suggested increasing benefit with increasing QRS duration, the 95% confidence bounds excluding 1.0 at ∼140 ms for each endpoint, suggesting a high probability of substantial benefit from CRT when QRS duration exceeds this value. QRS duration is a powerful predictor of the effects of CRT on morbidity and mortality in patients with symptomatic HF and left ventricular systolic dysfunction who are in sinus rhythm. QRS morphology did not provide additional information about clinical response. NCT00170300, NCT00271154, NCT00251251.

Risk factors for mortality in the Bangladesh cyclone of 1991.

PubMed

Bern, C; Sniezek, J; Mathbor, G M; Siddiqi, M S; Ronsmans, C; Chowdhury, A M; Choudhury, A E; Islam, K; Bennish, M; Noji, E

1993-01-01

Cyclones continue to pose a dangerous threat to the coastal populations of Bangladesh, despite improvements in disaster control procedures. After 138,000 persons died in the April 1991 cyclone, we carried out a rapid epidemiological assessment to determine factors associated with cyclone-related mortality and to identify prevention strategies. A nonrandom survey of 45 housing clusters comprising 1123 persons showed that mortality was greatest among under-10-year-olds (26%) and women older than 40 years (31%). Nearly 22% of persons who did not reach a concrete or brick structure died, whereas all persons who sought refuge in such structures survived. Future cyclone-associated mortality in Bangladesh could be prevented by more effective warnings leading to an earlier response, better access to designated cyclone shelters, and improved preparedness in high-risk communities. In particular, deaths among women and under-10-year-olds could be reduced by ensuring that they are given special attention by families, neighbours, local authorities, and especially those in charge of early warnings and emergency evacuation.

Captive Reptile Mortality Rates in the Home and Implications for the Wildlife Trade

PubMed Central

Robinson, Janine E.; St. John, Freya A. V.; Griffiths, Richard A.; Roberts, David L.

2015-01-01

The trade in wildlife and keeping of exotic pets is subject to varying levels of national and international regulation and is a topic often attracting controversy. Reptiles are popular exotic pets and comprise a substantial component of the live animal trade. High mortality of traded animals raises welfare concerns, and also has implications for conservation if collection from the wild is required to meet demand. Mortality of reptiles can occur at any stage of the trade chain from collector to consumer. However, there is limited information on mortality rates of reptiles across trade chains, particularly amongst final consumers in the home. We investigated mortality rates of reptiles amongst consumers using a specialised technique for asking sensitive questions, additive Randomised Response Technique (aRRT), as well as direct questioning (DQ). Overall, 3.6% of snakes, chelonians and lizards died within one year of acquisition. Boas and pythons had the lowest reported mortality rates of 1.9% and chameleons had the highest at 28.2%. More than 97% of snakes, 87% of lizards and 69% of chelonians acquired by respondents over five years were reported to be captive bred and results suggest that mortality rates may be lowest for captive bred individuals. Estimates of mortality from aRRT and DQ did not differ significantly which is in line with our findings that respondents did not find questions about reptile mortality to be sensitive. This research suggests that captive reptile mortality in the home is rather low, and identifies those taxa where further effort could be made to reduce mortality rates. PMID:26556237

Captive Reptile Mortality Rates in the Home and Implications for the Wildlife Trade.

PubMed

Robinson, Janine E; St John, Freya A V; Griffiths, Richard A; Roberts, David L

2015-01-01

The trade in wildlife and keeping of exotic pets is subject to varying levels of national and international regulation and is a topic often attracting controversy. Reptiles are popular exotic pets and comprise a substantial component of the live animal trade. High mortality of traded animals raises welfare concerns, and also has implications for conservation if collection from the wild is required to meet demand. Mortality of reptiles can occur at any stage of the trade chain from collector to consumer. However, there is limited information on mortality rates of reptiles across trade chains, particularly amongst final consumers in the home. We investigated mortality rates of reptiles amongst consumers using a specialised technique for asking sensitive questions, additive Randomised Response Technique (aRRT), as well as direct questioning (DQ). Overall, 3.6% of snakes, chelonians and lizards died within one year of acquisition. Boas and pythons had the lowest reported mortality rates of 1.9% and chameleons had the highest at 28.2%. More than 97% of snakes, 87% of lizards and 69% of chelonians acquired by respondents over five years were reported to be captive bred and results suggest that mortality rates may be lowest for captive bred individuals. Estimates of mortality from aRRT and DQ did not differ significantly which is in line with our findings that respondents did not find questions about reptile mortality to be sensitive. This research suggests that captive reptile mortality in the home is rather low, and identifies those taxa where further effort could be made to reduce mortality rates.

Can we reduce the number of fish in the OECD acute toxicity test?

PubMed

Rufli, Hans; Springer, Timothy A

2011-04-01

OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) Guideline 203, Fish Acute Toxicity Test, states that the test should be performed using at least five concentrations in a geometric series with a separation factor not exceeding 2.2, with at least seven fish per concentration. However, the efficiency of this design can be questioned, because it often results in only one concentration that causes partial mortality (mortality >0% and <100%). We performed Monte Carlo computer simulations to assess whether more efficient designs could allow reductions in fish use. Simulations indicated that testing with six fish per concentration could yield 50% lethal concentration (LC50) estimates of quality similar to those obtained using seven fish. Experts attending a workshop organized to consider this finding and to identify the best methods for reducing fish use concluded that significant reductions could best be achieved by modifying the test paradigm. They suggested initiating testing using a 96-h fish embryo test instead of juvenile fish to cover the range from the upper threshold concentration (the lowest 50% effective concentration [EC50] in existing algae and daphnia studies) to the highest concentration with no mortality. This would be followed by a confirmatory limit test with juvenile fish at the highest concentration with no mortality or by a full test with juvenile fish, if a point estimate of the LC50 is required. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

Abortion in the Structure of Causes of Maternal Mortality.

PubMed

Volkov, Valery G; Granatovich, Nina N; Survillo, Elena V; Pichugina, Leontina V; Achilgova, Zarina S

2018-06-12

 To study the structure of maternal mortality caused by abortion in the Tula region.  The medical records of deceased pregnant women, childbirth, and postpartum from January 01, 2001, to December 31, 2015, were analyzed.  Overall, 204,095 abortion cases were recorded in the Tula region for over 15 years. The frequency of abortion was reduced 4-fold, with 18,200 in 2001 to 4,538 in 2015. The rate of abortions per 1,000 women (age 15-44 years) for 15 years decreased by 40.5%, that is, from 46.53 (2001) to 18.84 (2015), and that of abortions per 100 live births and stillbirths was 29.5%, that is, from 161.7 (2001) to 41.5 (2015). Five women died from abortion complications that began outside of the hospital, which accounted for 0.01% of the total number. In the structure of causes of maternal mortality for 15 years, abortion represented 14.3% of the cases. Lethality mainly occurred in the period from 2001 to 2005 (4 cases). Among the maternal deaths, many women died in rural areas after pregnancy termination at 18 to 20 weeks of gestation ( n  = 4). In addition, three women died from sepsis and two from bleeding.  The introduction of modern, effective technologies of family planning has reduced maternal mortality due to abortion. Thieme Revinter Publicações Ltda Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Early Childhood and Education Services for Indigenous Children Prior to Starting School. Resource Sheet No. 7 for the Closing the Gap Clearinghouse

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sims, Margaret

2011-01-01

The National Partnership Agreement for Indigenous Early Childhood Development (COAG 2008a) aims to halve the gap in mortality rates for Indigenous children under five within a decade, halve the gap for Indigenous students in reading, writing and numeracy within a decade, and ensure all Indigenous 4-year-olds have access to quality early childhood…

Mortality of children under five and prevalence of newborn congenital anomalies in relation to macroeconomic and socioeconomic factors in Latvia.

PubMed

Ebela, Inguna; Zile, Irisa; Zakis, Aleksandrs; Folkmanis, Valdis; Rumba-Rozenfelde, Ingrida

2011-01-01

Mortality of infants and children younger than 5 years is a globally recognized and broad national welfare indicator. Scientific literature has data on the correlation of mortality indicators with macroeconomic indicators. It is important to study the associations between prevalence and mortality indicators and socioeconomic factors, since deaths from congenital anomalies account for approximately 25%-30% of all deaths in infancy. The aim of the study was to analyze the overall trend in mortality of infants and young children aged 0 to 4 years in relation to macroeconomic factors in Latvia and prevalence of congenital anomalies in newborns in relation to socioeconomic factors. The Newborns' Register and Causes of Death Register were used as data sources; data on specific socioeconomic factors were retrieved from the Central Statistics Office. The results of the study show a strong correlation between mortality in children younger than 5 years and gross domestic product, as well as health budget in LVL per capita and the national unemployment level. The average decrease in infant mortality from congenital anomalies in Latvia was found to be 6.8 cases per 100,000 live births. There is a strong correlation between child mortality and socioeconomic situation in the country. There is a need to analyze the data on child mortality in a transnational context on a regular basis and studying the correlations between child mortality indicators and socioeconomic indicators and health care management parameters.

Malaria Ecology, Disease Burden and Global Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mccord, G. C.

2014-12-01

Malaria has afflicted human society for over 2 million years, and remains one of the great killer diseases today. The disease is the fourth leading cause of death for children under five in low income countries (after neonatal disorders, diarrhea, and pneumonia) and is responsible for at least one in every five child deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. It kills up to 3 million people a year, though in recent years scale up of anti-malaria efforts in Africa may have brought deaths to below 1 million. Malaria is highly conditioned by ecology, because of which climate change is likely to change the local dynamics of the disease through changes in ambient temperature and precipitation. To assess the potential implications of climate change for the malaria burden, this paper employs a Malaria Ecology Index from the epidemiology literature, relates it to malaria incidence and mortality using global country-level data , and then draws implications for 2100 by extrapolating the index using several general circulation model (GCM) predictions of temperature and precipitation. The results highlight the climate change driven increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease and the resulting complications for further gains in elimination. For illustrative purposes, I report the change in malaria incidence and mortality if climate change were to happen immediately under current technology and public health efforts.

The effect of illicit financial flows on time to reach the fourth Millennium Development Goal in Sub-Saharan Africa: a quantitative analysis

PubMed Central

Makuta, Innocent; Bar-Zeev, Naor; Chiwaula, Levison; Cobham, Alex

2014-01-01

Objectives This paper sets out to estimate the cost of illicit financial flows (IFF) in terms of the amount of time it could take to reach the fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG) in 34 African countries. Design We have calculated the percentage increase in gross domestic product (GDP) if IFFs were curtailed using IFF/GDP ratios. We applied the income (GDP) elasticity of child mortality to the increase in GDP to estimate the reduction in time to reach the fourth MDG in 34 African countries. Participants children aged under five years. Settings 34 countries in SSA. Main outcome measures Reduction in time to reach the first indicator of the fourth MDG, under-five mortality rate in the absence of IFF. Results We found that in the 34 SSA countries, six countries will achieve their fourth MDG target at the current rates of decline. In the absence of IFF, 16 countries would reach their fourth MDG target by 2015 and there would be large reductions for all other countries. Conclusions This drain on development is facilitated by financial secrecy in other jurisdictions. Rich and poor countries alike must stem the haemorrhage of IFF by taking decisive steps towards improving financial transparency. PMID:24334911

Ethnicity and excess mortality in severe mental illness: a cohort study.

PubMed

Das-Munshi, Jayati; Chang, Chin-Kuo; Dutta, Rina; Morgan, Craig; Nazroo, James; Stewart, Robert; Prince, Martin J

2017-05-01

Excess mortality in severe mental illness (defined here as schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorders, and bipolar affective disorders) is well described, but little is known about this inequality in ethnic minorities. We aimed to estimate excess mortality for people with severe mental illness for five ethnic groups (white British, black Caribbean, black African, south Asian, and Irish) and to assess the association of ethnicity with mortality risk. We conducted a longitudinal cohort study of individuals with a valid diagnosis of severe mental illness between Jan 1, 2007, and Dec 31, 2014, from the case registry of the South London and Maudsley Trust (London, UK). We linked mortality data from the UK Office for National Statistics for the general population in England and Wales to our cohort, and determined all-cause and cause-specific mortality by ethnicity, standardised by age and sex to this population in 2011. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate hazard ratios and a modified Cox regression, taking into account competing risks to derive sub-hazard ratios, for the association of ethnicity with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. We identified 18 201 individuals with a valid diagnosis of severe mental illness (median follow-up 6·36 years, IQR 3·26-9·92), of whom 1767 died. Compared with the general population, age-and-sex-standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) in people with severe mental illness were increased for a range of causes, including suicides (7·65, 95% CI 6·43-9·04), non-suicide unnatural causes (4·01, 3·34-4·78), respiratory disease (3·38, 3·04-3·74), cardiovascular disease (2·65, 2·45-2·86), and cancers (1·45, 1·32-1·60). SMRs were broadly similar in different ethnic groups with severe mental illness, although the south Asian group had a reduced SMR for cancer mortality (0·49, 0·21-0·96). Within the cohort with severe mental illness, hazard ratios for all-cause mortality and sub-hazard ratios for natural-cause and unnatural-cause mortality were lower in most ethnic minority groups relative to the white British group. People with severe mental illness have excess mortality relative to the general population irrespective of ethnicity. Among those with severe mental illness, some ethnic minorities have lower mortality than the white British group, for which the reasons deserve further investigation. UK Health Foundation and UK Academy of Medical Sciences. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Natural mortality: Its ecology, how it shapes fish life histories, and why it may be increased by fishing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jørgensen, Christian; Holt, Rebecca E.

2013-01-01

A stronger focus on natural mortality may be required to better understand contemporary changes in fish life histories and behaviour and their responses to anthropogenic drivers. Firstly, natural mortality is the selection under which fish evolved in the first place, so a theoretical understanding of effects of natural mortality alone is needed. Secondly, due to trade-offs, most organismal functions can only be achieved at some cost in terms of survival. Several trade-offs might need to be analysed simultaneously with effects on natural mortality being a common currency. Thirdly, there is scattered evidence that natural mortality has been increasing, some would say dramatically, in some fished stocks, which begs explanations. Fourthly, natural mortality most often implies transfer of mass and energy from one species to another, and therefore has foodweb and ecosystem consequences. We therefore analyse a model for evolution of fish life histories and behaviour, where state-dependent energy-allocation and growth strategies are found by optimization. Natural mortality is split into five different components, each specified as the outcome of individual traits and ecological trade-offs: a fixed baseline mortality; size-dependent predation; risk-dependent growth strategy; a fixed mortality when sexually mature; and mortality increasing with reproductive investment. The analysis is repeated with and without fishing. Each component of natural mortality has consequences for optimal life history strategies. Beyond earlier models, we show i) how the two types of reproductive mortality sometimes have similar and sometimes contrasting effects on life history evolution, ii) how ecosystem properties such as food availability and predation levels have stronger effects on optimal strategies than changing other mortality components, and iii) how expected changes in risk-dependent growth strategies are highly variable depending on the type of mortality changed.

Success in reducing maternal and child mortality in Afghanistan.

PubMed

Rasooly, Mohammad Hafiz; Govindasamy, Pav; Aqil, Anwer; Rutstein, Shea; Arnold, Fred; Noormal, Bashiruddin; Way, Ann; Brock, Susan; Shadoul, Ahmed

2014-01-01

After the collapse of the Taliban regime in 2002, Afghanistan adopted a new development path and billions of dollars were invested in rebuilding the country's economy and health systems with the help of donors. These investments have led to substantial improvements in maternal and child health in recent years and ultimately to a decrease in maternal and child mortality. The 2010 Afghanistan Mortality Survey (AMS) provides important new information on the levels and trends in these indicators. The AMS estimated that there are 327 maternal deaths for every 100,000 live births (95% confidence interval = 260-394) and 97 deaths before the age of five years for every 1000 children born. Decreases in these mortality rates are consistent with changes in key determinants of mortality, including an increasing age at marriage, higher contraceptive use, lower fertility, better immunisation coverage, improvements in the percentage of women delivering in health facilities and receiving antenatal and postnatal care, involvement of community health workers and increasing access to the Basic Package of Health Services. Despite the impressive gains in these areas, many challenges remain. Further improvements in health services in Afghanistan will require sustained efforts on the part of both the Government of Afghanistan and international donors.

Brazil's conditional cash transfer program associated with declines in infant mortality rates.

PubMed

Shei, Amie

2013-07-01

Conditional cash transfer programs are innovative social safety-net programs that aim to relieve poverty. They provide a regular source of income to poor families and are "conditional" in that they require poor families to invest in the health and education of their children through greater use of educational and preventive health services. Brazil's Bolsa Família conditional cash transfer program, created in 2003, is the world's largest program of its kind. During the first five years of the program, it was associated with a significant 9.3 percent reduction in overall infant mortality rates, with greater declines in postneonatal mortality rates than in mortality rates at an earlier age and in municipalities with many users of Brazil's Family Health Program than in those with lower use rates. There were also larger effects in municipalities with higher infant mortality rates at baseline. Programs like Bolsa Família can improve child health and reduce long-standing health inequalities. Policy makers should review the adequacy of basic health services to ensure that the services can respond to the increased demand created by such programs. Programs should also target vulnerable groups at greatest risk and include careful monitoring and evaluation.

Lethal Dysregulation of Energy Metabolism During Embryonic Vitamin E Deficiency

PubMed Central

McDougall, Melissa; Choi, Jaewoo; Kim, Hye-Kyeong; Bobe, Gerd; Stevens, J. Frederik; Cadenas, Enrique; Tanguay, Robert; Traber, Maret G.

2017-01-01

Vitamin E (α-tocopherol, VitE) was discovered in 1922 for its role in preventing embryonic mortality. We investigated the underlying mechanisms causing lethality using targeted metabolomics analyses of zebrafish VitE-deficient embryos over five days of development, which coincided with their increased morbidity and mortality. VitE deficiency resulted in peroxidation of docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), depleting DHA-containing phospholipids, especially phosphatidylcholine, which also caused choline depletion. This increased lipid peroxidation also increased NADPH oxidation, which depleted glucose by shunting it to the pentose phosphate pathway. VitE deficiency was associated with mitochondrial dysfunction with concomitant impairment of energy homeostasis. The observed morbidity and mortality outcomes could be attenuated, but not fully reversed, by glucose injection into VitE-deficient embryos at developmental day one. Thus, embryonic VitE deficiency in vertebrates leads to a metabolic reprogramming that adversely affects methyl donor status and cellular energy homeostasis with lethal outcomes. PMID:28095320

Space-Time Smoothing of Complex Survey Data: Small Area Estimation for Child Mortality

PubMed Central

Mercer, Laina D; Wakefield, Jon; Pantazis, Athena; Lutambi, Angelina M; Masanja, Honorati; Clark, Samuel

2016-01-01

Many people living in low and middle-income countries are not covered by civil registration and vital statistics systems. Consequently, a wide variety of other types of data including many household sample surveys are used to estimate health and population indicators. In this paper we combine data from sample surveys and demographic surveillance systems to produce small area estimates of child mortality through time. Small area estimates are necessary to understand geographical heterogeneity in health indicators when full-coverage vital statistics are not available. For this endeavor spatio-temporal smoothing is beneficial to alleviate problems of data sparsity. The use of conventional hierarchical models requires careful thought since the survey weights may need to be considered to alleviate bias due to non-random sampling and non-response. The application that motivated this work is estimation of child mortality rates in five-year time intervals in regions of Tanzania. Data come from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted over the period 1991–2010 and two demographic surveillance system sites. We derive a variance estimator of under five years child mortality that accounts for the complex survey weighting. For our application, the hierarchical models we consider include random effects for area, time and survey and we compare models using a variety of measures including the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO). The method we propose is implemented via the fast and accurate integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA). PMID:27468328

Effect of community based behavioural change communication intervention to improve neonatal mortality in developing countries: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Tilahun, Dejene; Birhanu, Zewdie

2011-01-01

Background A great burden of infant and under-five childhood mortality occurs during the neonatal period, usually within a few days of birth. Community based behavioural change communication (such as interpersonal, group and mass media channels, including participatory methods at community level) intervention trials have been shown to be effective in reducing this mortality. However, to guide policy makers and programme planners, there is a need to systematically appraise and synthesise this evidence.Objective To systematically search, appraise and synthesise the best available evidence on the effect of community based behavioural change communication intervention to improve neonatal mortality in developing countries.Inclusion Criteria This review considered randomised controlled community trials on the effectiveness of community based behavioural change communication interventions aimed at decreasing neonatal mortality that were conducted in developing countries.Search Strategy This review considered English language articles on studies published between December, 2006 to January, 2011 and indexed in PubMed, CINAHL, EMBASE, Mednar, popline, Proquest, or Hinari.Methodological quality Studies that met the inclusion criteria were assessed for methodological quality using the Joanna Briggs Institute Meta Analysis of Statistical Assessment and Review Instrument by two independent reviewers. Data were analysed using a fixed effects model with RevMan5 software. Community based behavioural change communication interventions were found to be associated with a significant reduction in neonatal mortality of 19% (average OR 0.81; 95%CI 0. to 0.88), early neonatal mortality by 20% (average 0.80; 95%CI 0. to 0.91), late neonatal mortality by 21% (average 0.79; 95%CI 0. to 0.99). In addition, the intervention also resulted in significant improvement of newborn care practice; breast feeding initiation, clean cord cutting and delay in bathing were improved by 185%, 110% and 196% respectively.Conclusions Community-based behavioural change communication interventions such as health education, information education and communication, behavioural change communication, social mobilisation, community mobilisation, community conversation, and home based counselling were found to be associated with a significant reduction in neonatal mortality, early neonatal mortality and post neonatal mortality. The findings of this systematic review call for integration of such interventions into conventional strategies in developing countries.Implications for practice This systematic review has shown that community based behavioural change communication interventions that are implemented through community health volunteers and other community based health workers, targeted at pregnant women and also involving influential people such as mothers-in-law, fathers-in-law and husbands/partners, consistently demonstrated that community based intervention packages significantly reduced early neonatal, late neonatal and neonatal mortality rates and also have a pivotal role in improving household newborn care practice. Thus, this review provides encouraging evidence of the value of integrating newborn care and neonatal mortality reduction strategies into community based approaches.Implications for research The review findings were largely derived from a limited number of community trials from developing regions, particularly the African setting. Thus, there is a clear need for additional research on a larger scale and in more varied settings. There is also a need for more evidence based on higher quality research. The cost effectiveness of these community based interventions may impact on their adoption; however it was outside the scope of this review. Cost-effectiveness of these interventions should become a priority area for future research.

Reducing the global burden of Preterm Birth through knowledge transfer and exchange: a research agenda for engaging effectively with policymakers.

PubMed

Yamey, Gavin; Horváth, Hacsi; Schmidt, Laura; Myers, Janet; Brindis, Claire D

2016-03-18

Preterm birth (PTB) is the world's leading cause of death in children under 5 years. In 2013, over one million out of six million child deaths were due to complications of PTB. The rate of decline in child death overall has far outpaced the rate of decline attributable to PTB. Three key reasons for this slow progress in reducing PTB mortality are: (a) the underlying etiology and biological mechanisms remain unknown, presenting a challenge to discovering ways to prevent and treat the condition; (ii) while there are several evidence-based interventions that can reduce the risk of PTB and associated infant mortality, the coverage rates of these interventions in low- and middle-income countries remain very low; and (c) the gap between knowledge and action on PTB--the "know-do gap"--has been a major obstacle to progress in scaling up the use of existing evidence-based child health interventions, including those to prevent and treat PTB.In this review, we focus on the know-do gap in PTB as it applies to policymakers. The evidence-based approaches to narrowing this gap have become known as knowledge transfer and exchange (KTE). In our paper, we propose a research agenda for promoting KTE with policymakers, with an ambitious but realistic goal of reducing the global burden of PTB. We hope that our proposed research agenda stimulates further debate and discussion on research priorities to soon bend the curve of PTB mortality.

[Do laymen understand information about hospital quality? An empirical verification using risk-adjusted mortality rates as an example].

PubMed

Sander, Uwe; Kolb, Benjamin; Taheri, Fatemeh; Patzelt, Christiane; Emmert, Martin

2017-11-01

The effect of public reporting to improve quality in healthcare is reduced by the limited intelligibility of information about the quality of healthcare providers. This may result in worse health-related choices especially for older people and those with lower levels of education. There is, as yet, little information as to whether laymen understand the concepts behind quality comparisons and if this comprehension is correlated with hospital choices. An instrument with 20 items was developed to analyze the intelligibility of five technical terms which were used in German hospital report cards to explain risk-adjusted death rates. Two online presentations of risk-adjusted death rates for five hospitals in the style of hospital report cards were developed. An online survey of 353 volunteers tested the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality rates and included an experimental hospital choice. The intelligibility of five technical terms was tested: risk-adjusted, actual and expected death rate, reference range and national average. The percentages of correct answers for the five technical terms were in the range of 75.0-60.2%. Between 23.8% and 5.1% of the respondents were not able to answer the question about the technical term itself. The least comprehensible technical terms were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". The intelligibility of the 20 items that were used to test the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality was between 89.5% and 14.2%. The two items that proved to be least comprehensible were related to the technical terms "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". For all five technical terms it was found that a better comprehension correlated significantly with better hospital choices. We found a better than average intelligibility for the technical terms "actual and expected death rate" and for "national average". The least understandable were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". Since the self-explanatory technical terms "actual and expected death rate" and "national average" are easy to understand and the comprehension is correlated with hospitals choices, we recommend using them for the presentation of measures which contain risk-adjusted mortality. The technical terms "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range" should stay in the background, since comprehension problems can be expected and explanations would have to be provided. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Assessing Land Management Change Effects on Forest Carbon and Emissions Under Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Law, B. E.

2014-12-01

There has been limited focus on fine-scale land management change effects on forest carbon under future environmental conditions (climate, nitrogen deposition, increased atmospheric CO2). Forest management decisions are often made at the landscape to regional levels before analyses have been conducted to determine the potential outcomes and effectiveness of such actions. Scientists need to evaluate plausible land management actions in a timely manner to help shape policy and strategic land management. Issues of interest include species-level adaptation to climate, resilience and vulnerability to mortality within forested landscapes and regions. Efforts are underway to improve land system model simulation of future mortality related to climate, and to develop and evaluate plausible land management options that could help mitigate or avoid future die-offs. Vulnerability to drought-related mortality varies among species and with tree size or age. Predictors of species ability to survive in specific environments are still not resolved. A challenge is limited observations for fine-scale (e.g. 4 km2) modeling, particularly physiological parameters. Uncertainties are primarily associated with future land management and policy decisions. They include the interface with economic factors and with other ecosystem services (biodiversity, water availability, wildlife habitat). The outcomes of future management scenarios should be compared with business-as-usual management under the same environmental conditions to determine the effects of management changes on forest carbon and net emissions to the atmosphere. For example, in the western U.S., land system modeling and life cycle assessment of several management options to reduce impacts of fire reduced long-term forest carbon gain and increased carbon emissions compared with business-as-usual management under future environmental conditions. The enhanced net carbon uptake with climate and reduced fire emissions after thinning did not compensate for the increased wood removals over 90 years, leading to reduced net biome production. Analysis of land management change scenarios at fine scales is needed, and should consider other ecological values in addition to carbon.

Impact of heatwave on mortality under different heatwave definitions: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Xu, Zhiwei; FitzGerald, Gerard; Guo, Yuming; Jalaludin, Bin; Tong, Shilu

2016-01-01

Heatwave effects on human health and wellbeing is a great public health concern, especially in the context of climate change. However, no universally consistent heatwave definition is available. A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to assess the heatwave definitions used in the literature published up to 1st April 2015 by searching five databases (PubMed, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, Scopus, and Web of Science). Random-effects models were used to pool the effects of heatwave on total and cardiorespiratory mortality by different heatwave definitions. Existing evidence suggests a significant impact of heatwave on mortality, but the magnitude of the effect estimates varies under different heatwave definitions. Heatwave-related mortality risks increased by 4% (using "mean temperatures ≥95th percentile for ≥2days" as a heatwave definition), 3% (mean temperatures ≥98th percentile for ≥2days), 7% (mean temperatures ≥99th percentile for ≥2days) and 16% (mean temperatures ≥97th percentile for ≥5days). Heatwave intensity plays a relatively more important role than duration in determining heatwave-related deaths. Heatwaves significantly increase mortality across the globe, but the effect estimates vary with the definition of heatwaves. City- or region-specific heat health early warning systems based on identified local heatwave definitions may be optimal for protecting and preventing people from the adverse impacts of future heatwaves. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The effect of optimal medical therapy on 1-year mortality after acute myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Bramlage, P; Messer, C; Bitterlich, N; Pohlmann, C; Cuneo, A; Stammwitz, E; Tebbenjohanns, J; Gohlke, H; Senges, J; Tebbe, U

2010-04-01

Five drug classes have been shown to improve the prognosis of acute myocardial infarction in clinical trials: aspirin, beta-blockers, statins, renin angiotensin system (RAS) blockers and thienopyridines. We aimed to assess whether the benefits of combining these drugs (termed optimal medical therapy, OMT), will result in a reduction of mortality in clinical practice. Nationwide registry Hospitals with a cardiology unit or internal medicine department. 5353 patients with acute myocardial infarction. At hospital discharge 89% received aspirin, 90% beta-blockers, 84% statins, 81% RAS blockers, 70% a thienopyridine and 46.2% OMT. Pharmacotherapy OR with 95% CI for mortality from myocardial infarction were calculated and adjusted for patient risk at baseline. Total mortality was reduced by 74% in patients receiving OMT (adj OR 0.26; 95% CI 0.18 to 0.38) versus patients receiving one or no drug. This was consistent in subgroups defined by STEMI/NSTEMI, diabetes and gender. Mortality was also reduced in patients receiving 2-4 drugs (adj OR 0.49; 95% CI 0.35 to 0.68), diabetic patients being the only subgroup with no significant effect. Analyses on the relative importance of either component revealed that withdrawal of beta-blockers (adj OR 0.63; 95% CI 0.34 to 1.16) and/or a combination of aspirin/clopidogrel (adj OR 0.59; 95% CI 0.20 to 1.17) abolished the risk reduction conferred by OMT. OMT over 1 year was associated with a significantly lower mortality of patients with acute myocardial infarction in clinical practice. However OMT is provided to less than half of eligible patients leaving room for substantial improvement.

Inequality in Maternal Mortality in Iran: An Ecologic Study

PubMed Central

Tajik, Parvin; Nedjat, Saharnaz; Afshar, Nozhat Emami; Changizi, Nasrin; Yazdizadeh, Bahareh; Azemikhah, Arash; Aamrolalaei, Sima; Majdzadeh, Reza

2012-01-01

Background: Maternal mortality (MM) is an avoidable death and there is national, international and political commitment to reduce it. The objective of this study is to examine the relation of MM to socioeconomic factors and its inequality in Iran's provinces at an ecologic level. Methods: The overall MM from each province was considered for 3 years from 2004 to 2006. The five independent variables whose relations were studied included the literacy rate among men and women in each province, mean annual household income per capita, Gini coefficients in each province, and Human Development Index (HDI). The correlation of Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) to the above five variables was evaluated through Pearson's correlation coefficient (simple and weighted for each province's population) and linear regression – by considering MMR as the dependent variable and the Gini coefficient, HDI, and difference in literacy rate among men and women as the independent variables. Results: The mean MMR in the years 2004–2006 was 24.7 in 100,000 live births. The correlation coefficients between MMR and literacy rate among women, literacy rate among men, the mean annual household income per capita, Gini coefficient and HDI were 0.82, 0.90, –0.61, 0.52 and –0.77, respectively. Based on multivariate regression, MMR was significantly associated with HDI (standardized B=–0.93) and difference in literacy rate among men and women (standardized B=–0.47). However, MMR was not significantly associated with the Gini coefficient. Conclusion: This study shows the association between socioeconomic variables and their inequalities with MMR in Iran's provinces at an ecologic level. In addition to the other direct interventions performed to reduce MM, it seems essential to especially focus on more distal factors influencing MMR. PMID:22347608

'Tweaking' the model for understanding and preventing maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality in Low Income Countries: "inserting new ideas into a timeless wine skin".

PubMed

Mwaniki, Michael K; Baya, Evaline J; Mwangi-Powell, Faith; Sidebotham, Peter

2016-01-25

Maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality in Low Income Countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa involves numerous interrelated causes. The three-delay model/framework was advanced to better understand the causes and associated Contextual factors. It continues to inform many aspects of programming and research on combating maternal and child morbidity and mortality in the said countries. Although this model addresses some of the core areas that can be targeted to drastically reduce maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality, it potentially omits other critical facets especially around primary prevention, and pre- and post-hospitalization continuum of care. The final causes of Maternal and Neonatal mortality and morbidity maybe limited to a few themes largely centering on infections, preterm births, and pregnancy and childbirth related complications. However, to effectively tackle these causes of morbidity and mortality, a broad based approach is required. Some of the core issues that need to be addressed include:-i) prevention of vertically transmitted infections, intra-partum related adverse events and broad primary prevention strategies, ii) overall health care seeking behavior and delays therein, iii) quality of care at point of service delivery, and iv) post-insult treatment follow up and rehabilitation. In this article we propose a five-pronged framework that takes all the above into consideration. This frameworks further builds on the three-delay model and offers a more comprehensive approach to understanding and preventing maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality in Low Income Countries In shaping the post 2015 agenda, the scope of engagement in maternal and newborn health need to be widened if further gains are to be realized and sustained. Our proposed five pronged approach incorporates the need for continued investment in tackling the recognized three delays, but broadens this to also address earlier aspects of primary prevention, and the need for tertiary prevention through ongoing follow up and rehabilitation. It takes into perspective the spectrum of new evidence and how it can be used to deepen overall understanding of prevention strategies for maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality in LICS.

Risk assessment, genetic counseling, and genetic testing for BRCA-related cancer in women: a systematic review to update the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommendation.

PubMed

Nelson, Heidi D; Pappas, Miranda; Zakher, Bernadette; Mitchell, Jennifer Priest; Okinaka-Hu, Leila; Fu, Rongwei

2014-02-18

Mutations in breast cancer susceptibility genes (BRCA1 and BRCA2) are associated with increased risks for breast, ovarian, and other types of cancer. To review new evidence on the benefits and harms of risk assessment, genetic counseling, and genetic testing for BRCA-related cancer in women. MEDLINE and PsycINFO between 2004 and 30 July 2013, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from 2004 through the second quarter of 2013, Health Technology Assessment during the fourth quarter of 2012, Scopus, and reference lists. English-language studies about accuracy of risk assessment and benefits and harms of genetic counseling, genetic testing, and interventions to reduce cancer incidence and mortality. Individual investigators extracted data on participants, study design, analysis, follow-up, and results, and a second investigator confirmed key data. Investigators independently dual-rated study quality and applicability by using established criteria. Five referral models accurately estimated individual risk for BRCA mutations. Genetic counseling increased the accuracy of risk perception and decreases the intention for genetic testing among unlikely carriers and cancer-related worry, anxiety, and depression. No trials evaluated the effectiveness of intensive screening or risk-reducing medications in mutation carriers, although false-positive rates, unneeded imaging, and unneeded surgeries were higher with screening. Among high-risk women and mutation carriers, risk-reducing mastectomy decreased breast cancer by 85% to 100% and breast cancer mortality by 81% to 100% compared with women without surgery; risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy decreased breast cancer incidence by 37% to 100%, ovarian cancer by 69% to 100%, and all-cause mortality by 55% to 100%. The analysis included only English-language articles;efficacy trials in mutation carriers were lacking. Studies of risk assessment, genetic counseling, genetic testing, and interventions to reduce cancer and mortality indicate potential benefits and harms that vary according to risk.

Significantly reduced health burden from ambient air pollution in the U.S. under emission reductions from 1990 to 2010

EPA Science Inventory

The recent 2013 Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 has attributed the ambient PM2.5 as the fifth-ranking mortality risk factor in 2015. While assessing the global or national burden of disease attributed to air pollution has become more common, fewer studies have tried to unders...

Child mortality estimation 2013: an overview of updates in estimation methods by the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation.

PubMed

Alkema, Leontine; New, Jin Rou; Pedersen, Jon; You, Danzhen

2014-01-01

In September 2013, the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) published an update of the estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and under-five deaths for all countries. Compared to the UN IGME estimates published in 2012, updated data inputs and a new method for estimating the U5MR were used. We summarize the new U5MR estimation method, which is a Bayesian B-spline Bias-reduction model, and highlight differences with the previously used method. Differences in UN IGME U5MR estimates as published in 2012 and those published in 2013 are presented and decomposed into differences due to the updated database and differences due to the new estimation method to explain and motivate changes in estimates. Compared to the previously used method, the new UN IGME estimation method is based on a different trend fitting method that can track (recent) changes in U5MR more closely. The new method provides U5MR estimates that account for data quality issues. Resulting differences in U5MR point estimates between the UN IGME 2012 and 2013 publications are small for the majority of countries but greater than 10 deaths per 1,000 live births for 33 countries in 2011 and 19 countries in 1990. These differences can be explained by the updated database used, the curve fitting method as well as accounting for data quality issues. Changes in the number of deaths were less than 10% on the global level and for the majority of MDG regions. The 2013 UN IGME estimates provide the most recent assessment of levels and trends in U5MR based on all available data and an improved estimation method that allows for closer-to-real-time monitoring of changes in the U5MR and takes account of data quality issues.

Child Mortality Estimation 2013: An Overview of Updates in Estimation Methods by the United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation

PubMed Central

Alkema, Leontine; New, Jin Rou; Pedersen, Jon; You, Danzhen

2014-01-01

Background In September 2013, the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) published an update of the estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and under-five deaths for all countries. Compared to the UN IGME estimates published in 2012, updated data inputs and a new method for estimating the U5MR were used. Methods We summarize the new U5MR estimation method, which is a Bayesian B-spline Bias-reduction model, and highlight differences with the previously used method. Differences in UN IGME U5MR estimates as published in 2012 and those published in 2013 are presented and decomposed into differences due to the updated database and differences due to the new estimation method to explain and motivate changes in estimates. Findings Compared to the previously used method, the new UN IGME estimation method is based on a different trend fitting method that can track (recent) changes in U5MR more closely. The new method provides U5MR estimates that account for data quality issues. Resulting differences in U5MR point estimates between the UN IGME 2012 and 2013 publications are small for the majority of countries but greater than 10 deaths per 1,000 live births for 33 countries in 2011 and 19 countries in 1990. These differences can be explained by the updated database used, the curve fitting method as well as accounting for data quality issues. Changes in the number of deaths were less than 10% on the global level and for the majority of MDG regions. Conclusions The 2013 UN IGME estimates provide the most recent assessment of levels and trends in U5MR based on all available data and an improved estimation method that allows for closer-to-real-time monitoring of changes in the U5MR and takes account of data quality issues. PMID:25013954

Bark Beetle Impacts on Ecosystem Processes are Over Quickly and Muted Spatially

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ewers, B. E.; Norton, U.; Borkhuu, B.; Reed, D. E.; Peckham, S. D.; Biederman, J. A.; King, A.; Gochis, D. J.; Brooks, P. D.; Harpold, A. A.; Frank, J. M.; Massman, W. J.; Mackay, D. S.; Pendall, E. G.

2013-12-01

The recent epidemic of bark beetles across western North America has impacted conifers from low to high elevations from New Mexico to Yukon. The mechanism of mortality is clear, with both mountain pine and spruce beetles killing trees by introducing xylem occluding blue stain fungi which dramatically stops transpiration. The visual impact of this outbreak is stunning, with mortality of canopy trees over 90% in some stands. However, emerging work shows that the impact on ecosystem processes is not as dramatic. We hypothesize that increased soil water and nitrogen sets up rapid succession of plant communities, which quickly restores ecosystem processing of water, carbon and nitrogen, while spatial patchiness of mortality and belowground responses mutes the impact as spatial scale increases from stands to watersheds. In support of our hypothesis we found 1) Soil nitrogen and moisture increase within one growing season but decrease to the same as uninfested stands five years later. 2) Soil respiration is correlated with live tree basal area suggesting a large component of autotrophic respiration. 3) Once stands have more than 50% basal area mortality, seedling density increases up to five fold and total non-tree understory cover increased two fold both within five years after infestation. 4) Ecosystem scale estimates of water vapor fluxes do not decline as rapidly as overstory leaf area. 5) Stable isotopes of snow, soil and stream water suggest that increased below canopy evapotranspiration nearly compensates for reduced canopy transpiration. 6) Nested watershed data shows that precipitation variations are much more important in regulating streamflow than changes in canopies from bark beetle induced mortality. These results were tested in the Terrestrial Regional Ecosystem Exchange Simulator (TREES) model. TREES was able to predict annual changes in the carbon fluxes but had difficulty simulating soil moisture and annual water budgets likely due to inadequate abiotic water vapor flux mechanisms and an explicit understory canopy layer. Our results show that ecosystems are resilient to the bark beetle epidemic and the resulting ecosystem process change is much less dramatic than might be expected based on the visual impact.

A mixed methods study to assess the effectiveness of food-based interventions to prevent stunting among children under-five years in Districts Thatta and Sujawal, Sindh Province, Pakistan: study protocol.

PubMed

Kureishy, Sumra; Khan, Gul Nawaz; Arrif, Shabina; Ashraf, Khizar; Cespedes, Angela; Habib, Muhammad Atif; Hussain, Imtiaz; Ullah, Asmat; Turab, Ali; Ahmed, Imran; Zaidi, Shehla; Soofi, Sajid Bashir

2017-01-05

Maternal and child malnutrition is widely prevalent in low and middle income countries. In Pakistan, widespread food insecurity and malnutrition are the main contributors to poor health, low survival rates and the loss of human capital development. The nutritional status trends among children exhibit a continuous deteriorating with rates of malnutrition exceeding the WHO critical threshold. With the high prevalence of maternal and child malnutrition, it is important to identify effective preventative approaches, especially for reducing stunting in children under-five years of age. The primary aim of this study is to assess the effectiveness of food-based interventions to prevent stunting in children under-five years. A mixed methods study design will be conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of food-based interventions to prevent stunting among children under-five years in districts Thatta and Sujawal, Sindh Province, Pakistan. The study will include cross sectional surveys, a community-based cluster randomized controlled trial and a process evaluation. The study participants will be pregnant women, lactating mothers and children under-five years. The cross-sectional surveys will be conducted with 7360 study participants at baseline and endline. For the randomized control trial, 5000 participants will be recruited and followed monthly for compliance of food-based supplements, dietary diversity, pregnancy outcomes, and maternal and child morbidity and mortality. Anthropometric measurements and hemoglobin levels will be measured at baseline, quarterly and at endline. The interventions will consist of locally produced lipid-based nutrient supplement (Wawamum) for children 6-23 months, micronutrient powders for children 24-59 months, and wheat soya blends for pregnant and lactating mothers. Government lady health workers will deliver interventions to participants. The effectiveness of the project will be measured in terms of the impact of the proposed interventions on stunting, nutritional status, micronutrient deficiencies, and other key indicators of the participants. The process evaluation will assess the acceptability, feasibility and potential barriers of project implementation through focus group discussions, key informant interviews and household surveys. Data analysis will be conducted using STATA version 12. There is considerable evidence on the effectiveness of food-based interventions in managing stunting in developing countries. However, these studies do not account for the local environmental factors and widespread nutrient deficiencies in Pakistan. These studies are often conducted in controlled environments, where the results cannot be generalized to programs operating under field conditions. The findings of this study will provide sufficient evidence to develop policies and programs aimed to prevent stunting in children 6-59 months and to improve maternal and child health and growth outcomes in poor resource settings. NCT02422953 . Registered on April 15, 2015.

Prevention of suicide with regulations aimed at restricting access to highly hazardous pesticides: a systematic review of the international evidence.

PubMed

Gunnell, David; Knipe, Duleeka; Chang, Shu-Sen; Pearson, Melissa; Konradsen, Flemming; Lee, Won Jin; Eddleston, Michael

2017-10-01

Pesticide self-poisoning accounts for 14-20% of suicides worldwide. Regulation aimed at restricting access to pesticides or banning highly hazardous pesticides is one approach to reducing these deaths. We systematically reviewed the evidence of the effectiveness of pesticide regulation in reducing the incidence of pesticide suicides and overall suicides. We did a systematic review of the international evidence. We searched MEDLINE, PsycINFO, and Embase for studies published between Jan 1, 1960, and Dec 31, 2016, which investigated the effect of national or regional bans, and sales or import restrictions, on the availability of one or more pesticides and the incidence of suicide in different countries. We excluded other interventions aimed at limiting community access to pesticides. We extracted data from studies presenting pesticide suicide data and overall suicide data from before and after national sales restrictions. Two reviewers independently assessed papers for inclusion, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. We undertook a narrative synthesis of the data in each report, and where data were available for the years before and after a ban, we pooled data for the 3 years before and the 3 years after to obtain a crude estimate of the effect of the ban. This study is registered through PROSPERO, number CRD42017053329. We identified 27 studies undertaken in 16 countries-five low-income or middle-income countries (Bangladesh, Colombia, India, Jordan and Sri Lanka), and 11 high-income countries (Denmark, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, UK, and USA). Assessments largely focused on national bans of specific pesticides (12 studies of bans in six countries-Jordan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Greece [Crete], South Korea, and Taiwan) or sales restrictions (eight studies of restrictions in five countries- India, Denmark, Ireland, the UK and the USA). Only five studies used optimum analytical methods. National bans on commonly ingested pesticides in five of the six countries studied, including four studies using optimum analytical methods, were followed by reductions in pesticide suicides and, in three of these countries, falls in overall suicide mortality. Greece was the only country studied that did not show a decrease in pesticide suicide following a ban. There were no high-quality studies of restricting sales to people for occupational uses; four of the seven studies (in three of the five countries studied-India, Denmark, and the USA) showed sales restrictions were followed by decreases in pesticide suicides; one of the two studies investigating trends in overall suicide mortality reported a fall in deaths in Denmark, but there were also decreases in suicide deaths from other methods. National bans on highly hazardous pesticides, which are commonly ingested in acts of self-poisoning, seem to be effective in reducing pesticide-specific and overall suicide rates. Evidence is less consistent for sales restrictions. A worldwide ban on the use of highly hazardous pesticides is likely to prevent tens of thousands of deaths every year. None. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Tuberculosis caseload in children with severe acute malnutrition related with high hospital based mortality in Lusaka, Zambia.

PubMed

Munthali, Tendai; Chabala, Chishala; Chama, Elson; Mugode, Raider; Kapata, Nathan; Musonda, Patrick; Michelo, Charles

2017-06-12

Tuberculosis and severe acute malnutrition (SAM) in children pose a major treatment and care challenge in high HIV burden countries in Africa. We investigated the prevalence of Tuberculosis notifications among hospitalised under-five children with severe acute malnutrition. A retrospective review of medical records for all children aged 0-59 months admitted to the University Teaching Hospital from 2009 to 2013 was performed. Descriptive statistics were employed to estimate TB caseload. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of the TB caseload. A total of (n = 9540) under-five children with SAM were admitted over the period reviewed. The median age was 16 months (IQR 11-24) and the proportion diagnosed with TB was 1.58% (95% CI 1.3, 1.8) representing 151 cases. Of these, only 37 (25%) were bacteriologically confirmed cases. The HIV seroprevalence of children with SAM and TB was 46.5%. Children with SAM and TB were 40% more likely to die than children with SAM and without TB. Tuberculosis contributes to mortality among children with SAM in high TB and HIV prevalence settings. The under detection of cases and association of TB with HIV infection in malnutrition opens up opportunities to innovate integrative case finding approaches beyond just HIV counselling and testing within existing mother and child health service areas to include TB screening and prevention interventions, as these are critical primary care elements.

Patterns of lung cancer mortality in 23 countries: Application of the Age-Period-Cohort model

PubMed Central

Liaw, Yung-Po; Huang, Yi-Chia; Lien, Guang-Wen

2005-01-01

Background Smoking habits do not seem to be the main explanation of the epidemiological characteristics of female lung cancer mortality in Asian countries. However, Asian countries are often excluded from studies of geographical differences in trends for lung cancer mortality. We thus examined lung cancer trends from 1971 to 1995 among men and women for 23 countries, including four in Asia. Methods International and national data were used to analyze lung cancer mortality from 1971 to 1995 in both sexes. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were analyzed in five consecutive five-year periods and for each five-year age group in the age range 30 to 79. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to estimate the period effect (adjusted for age and cohort effects) for mortality from lung cancer. Results The sex ratio of the ASMR for lung cancer was lower in Asian countries, while the sex ratio of smoking prevalence was higher in Asian countries. The mean values of the sex ratio of the ASMR from lung cancer in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan for the five 5-year period were 2.10, 2.39, 3.07, and 3.55, respectively. These values not only remained quite constant over each five-year period, but were also lower than seen in the western countries. The period effect, for lung cancer mortality as derived for the 23 countries from the APC model, could be classified into seven patterns. Conclusion Period effects for both men and women in 23 countries, as derived using the APC model, could be classified into seven patterns. Four Asian countries have a relatively low sex ratio in lung cancer mortality and a relatively high sex ratio in smoking prevalence. Factors other than smoking might be important, especially for women in Asian countries. PMID:15748289

The effects of raking on sugar pine mortality following prescribed fire in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nesmith, Jonathan C. B.; O'Hara, Kevin L.; van Mantgem, Phillip J.; de Valpine, Perry

2010-01-01

Prescribed fire is an important tool for fuel reduction, the control of competing vegetation, and forest restoration. The accumulated fuels associated with historical fire exclusion can cause undesirably high tree mortality rates following prescribed fires and wildfires. This is especially true for sugar pine (Pinus lambertiana Douglas), which is already negatively affected by the introduced pathogen white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola J.C. Fisch. ex Rabenh). We tested the efficacy of raking away fuels around the base of sugar pine to reduce mortality following prescribed fire in Sequoia and Kings Canyon national parks, California, USA. This study was conducted in three prescribed fires and included 457 trees, half of which had the fuels around their bases raked away to mineral soil to 0.5 m away from the stem. Fire effects were assessed and tree mortality was recorded for three years after prescribed fires. Overall, raking had no detectable effect on mortality: raked trees averaged 30% mortality compared to 36% for unraked trees. There was a significant effect, however, between the interaction of raking and average pre-treatment forest floor fuel depth: the predicted probability of survival of a 50 cm dbh tree was 0.94 vs. 0.96 when average pre-treatment fuel depth was 0 cm for a raked and unraked tree, respectively. When average pre-treatment forest floor fuel depth was 30 cm, the predicted probability of survival for a raked 50 cm dbh tree was 0.60 compared to only 0.07 for an unraked tree. Raking did not affect mortality when fire intensity, measured as percent crown volume scorched, was very low (0% scorch) or very high (>80% scorch), but the raking treatment significantly increased the proportion of trees that survived by 9.6% for trees that burned under moderate fire intensity (1% to 80% scorch). Raking significantly reduced the likelihood of bole charring and bark beetle activity three years post fire. Fuel depth and anticipated fire intensity need to be accounted for to maximize the effectiveness of the treatments. Raking is an important management option to reduce tree mortality from prescribed fire, but is most effective under specific fuel and burning conditions.

Evolution of male age-specific reproduction under differential risks and causes of death: males pay the cost of high female fitness.

PubMed

Chen, H-Y; Spagopoulou, F; Maklakov, A A

2016-04-01

Classic theories of ageing evolution predict that increased extrinsic mortality due to an environmental hazard selects for increased early reproduction, rapid ageing and short intrinsic lifespan. Conversely, emerging theory maintains that when ageing increases susceptibility to an environmental hazard, increased mortality due to this hazard can select against ageing in physiological condition and prolong intrinsic lifespan. However, evolution of slow ageing under high-condition-dependent mortality is expected to result from reallocation of resources to different traits and such reallocation may be hampered by sex-specific trade-offs. Because same life-history trait values often have different fitness consequences in males and females, sexually antagonistic selection can preserve genetic variance for lifespan and ageing. We previously showed that increased condition-dependent mortality caused by heat shock leads to evolution of long-life, decelerated late-life mortality in both sexes and increased female fecundity in the nematode, Caenorhabditis remanei. Here, we used these cryopreserved lines to show that males evolving under heat shock suffered from reduced early-life and net reproduction, while mortality rate had no effect. Our results suggest that heat-shock resistance and associated long-life trade-off with male, but not female, reproduction and therefore sexually antagonistic selection contributes to maintenance of genetic variation for lifespan and fitness in this population. © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Mapping under-5 and neonatal mortality in Africa, 2000-15: a baseline analysis for the Sustainable Development Goals.

PubMed

Golding, Nick; Burstein, Roy; Longbottom, Joshua; Browne, Annie J; Fullman, Nancy; Osgood-Zimmerman, Aaron; Earl, Lucas; Bhatt, Samir; Cameron, Ewan; Casey, Daniel C; Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura; Farag, Tamer H; Flaxman, Abraham D; Fraser, Maya S; Gething, Peter W; Gibson, Harry S; Graetz, Nicholas; Krause, L Kendall; Kulikoff, Xie Rachel; Lim, Stephen S; Mappin, Bonnie; Morozoff, Chloe; Reiner, Robert C; Sligar, Amber; Smith, David L; Wang, Haidong; Weiss, Daniel J; Murray, Christopher J L; Moyes, Catherine L; Hay, Simon I

2017-11-11

During the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) era, many countries in Africa achieved marked reductions in under-5 and neonatal mortality. Yet the pace of progress toward these goals substantially varied at the national level, demonstrating an essential need for tracking even more local trends in child mortality. With the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015, which established ambitious targets for improving child survival by 2030, optimal intervention planning and targeting will require understanding of trends and rates of progress at a higher spatial resolution. In this study, we aimed to generate high-resolution estimates of under-5 and neonatal all-cause mortality across 46 countries in Africa. We assembled 235 geographically resolved household survey and census data sources on child deaths to produce estimates of under-5 and neonatal mortality at a resolution of 5 × 5 km grid cells across 46 African countries for 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015. We used a Bayesian geostatistical analytical framework to generate these estimates, and implemented predictive validity tests. In addition to reporting 5 × 5 km estimates, we also aggregated results obtained from these estimates into three different levels-national, and subnational administrative levels 1 and 2-to provide the full range of geospatial resolution that local, national, and global decision makers might require. Amid improving child survival in Africa, there was substantial heterogeneity in absolute levels of under-5 and neonatal mortality in 2015, as well as the annualised rates of decline achieved from 2000 to 2015. Subnational areas in countries such as Botswana, Rwanda, and Ethiopia recorded some of the largest decreases in child mortality rates since 2000, positioning them well to achieve SDG targets by 2030 or earlier. Yet these places were the exception for Africa, since many areas, particularly in central and western Africa, must reduce under-5 mortality rates by at least 8·8% per year, between 2015 and 2030, to achieve the SDG 3.2 target for under-5 mortality by 2030. In the absence of unprecedented political commitment, financial support, and medical advances, the viability of SDG 3.2 achievement in Africa is precarious at best. By producing under-5 and neonatal mortality rates at multiple levels of geospatial resolution over time, this study provides key information for decision makers to target interventions at populations in the greatest need. In an era when precision public health increasingly has the potential to transform the design, implementation, and impact of health programmes, our 5 × 5 km estimates of child mortality in Africa provide a baseline against which local, national, and global stakeholders can map the pathways for ending preventable child deaths by 2030. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Isohydric species are not necessarily more carbon limited than anisohydric species during drought.

PubMed

Garcia-Forner, N; Biel, C; Savé, R; Martínez-Vilalta, J

2017-04-01

Isohydry (i.e., strong regulation of leaf water potential, Ψl) is commonly associated with strict stomatal regulation of transpiration under drought, which in turn is believed to minimize hydraulic risk at the expense of reduced carbon assimilation. Hence, the iso/anisohydric classification has been widely used to assess drought resistance and mortality mechanisms across species, with isohydric species being hypothetically more prone to carbon starvation and anisohydric species more vulnerable to hydraulic failure. These hypotheses and their underlying assumptions, however, have rarely been tested under controlled, experimental conditions. Our objective is to assess the physiological mechanisms underlying drought resistance differences between two co-occurring Mediterranean forest species with contrasting drought responses: Phillyrea latifolia L. (anisohydric and more resistant to drought) and Quercus ilex L. (isohydric and less drought resistant). A total of 100 large saplings (50 per species) were subjected to repeated drought treatments for a period of 3 years, after which Q. ilex showed 18% mortality whereas no mortality was detected in P. latifolia. Relatively isohydric behavior was confirmed for Q. ilex, but higher vulnerability to cavitation in this species implied that estimated embolism levels were similar across species (12-52% in Q. ilex vs ~30% in P. latifolia). We also found similar seasonal patterns of stomatal conductance and assimilation between species. If anything, the anisohydric P. latifolia tended to show lower assimilation rates than Q. ilex under extreme drought. Similar growth rates and carbon reserves dynamics in both species also suggests that P. latifolia was as carbon-constrained as Q. ilex. Increasing carbon reserves under extreme drought stress in both species, concurrent with Q. ilex mortality, suggests that mortality in our study was not triggered by carbon starvation. Our results warn against making direct connections between Ψl regulation, stomatal behavior and the mechanisms of drought-induced mortality in plants. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Primary care organisational interventions for secondary prevention of ischaemic heart disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Murphy, Edel; Vellinga, Akke; Byrne, Molly; Cupples, Margaret E; Murphy, Andrew W; Buckley, Brian; Smith, Susan M

2015-07-01

Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. To determine the long-term impact of organisational interventions for secondary prevention of IHD. Systematic review and meta-analysis of studies from CENTRAL, MEDLINE(®), Embase, and CINAHL published January 2007 to January 2013. Searches were conducted for randomised controlled trials of patients with established IHD, with long-term follow-up, of cardiac secondary prevention programmes targeting organisational change in primary care or community settings. A random-effects model was used and risk ratios were calculated. Five studies were included with 4005 participants. Meta-analysis of four studies with mortality data at 4.7-6 years showed that organisational interventions were associated with approximately 20% reduced mortality, with a risk ratio (RR) for all-cause mortality of 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.66 to 0.93), and a RR for cardiac-related mortality of 0.74 (95% CI = 0.58 to 0.94). Two studies reported mortality data at 10 years. Analysis of these data showed no significant differences between groups. There were insufficient data to conduct a meta-analysis on the effect of interventions on hospital admissions. Additional analyses showed no significant association between organisational interventions and risk factor management or appropriate prescribing at 4.7-6 years. Cardiac secondary prevention programmes targeting organisational change are associated with a reduced risk of death for at least 4-6 years. There is insufficient evidence to conclude whether this beneficial effect is maintained indefinitely. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.

Minimized extracorporeal circulation is improving outcome of coronary artery bypass surgery in the elderly.

PubMed

Freundt, Miriam; Ried, Michael; Philipp, Alois; Diez, Claudius; Kolat, Philipp; Hirt, Stephan W; Schmid, Christof; Haneya, Assad

2016-03-01

Advanced age is a known risk factor for morbidity and mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Minimized extracorporeal circulation (MECC) has been shown to reduce the negative effects associated with conventional extracorporeal circulation (CECC). This trial assesses the impact of MECC on the outcome of elderly patients undergoing CABG. Eight hundred and seventy-five patients (mean age 78.35 years) underwent isolated CABG using CECC (n=345) or MECC (n=530). The MECC group had a significantly shorter extracorporeal circulation time (ECCT), cross-clamp time and reperfusion time and lower transfusion needs. Postoperatively, these patients required significantly less inotropic support, fewer blood transfusions, less postoperative hemodialysis and developed less delirium compared to CECC patients. In the MECC group, intensive care unit (ICU) stay was significantly shorter and 30-day mortality was significantly reduced [2.6% versus 7.8%; p<0.001]. In conclusion, MECC improves outcome in elderly patients undergoing CABG surgery. © The Author(s) 2015.

The AIMS65 Score Is a Useful Predictor of Mortality in Patients with Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: Urgent Endoscopy in Patients with High AIMS65 Scores

PubMed Central

Park, Sun Wook; Song, Young Wook; Tak, Dae Hyun; Ahn, Byung Moo; Kang, Sun Hyung; Moon, Hee Seok; Sung, Jae Kyu; Jeong, Hyun Yong

2015-01-01

Background/Aims: To validate the AIMS65 score for predicting mortality of patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding and to evaluate the effectiveness of urgent (<8 hours) endoscopic procedures in patients with high AIMS65 scores. Methods: This was a 5-year single-center, retrospective study. Nonvariceal, upper gastrointestinal bleeding was assessed by using the AIM65 and Rockall scores. Scores for mortality were assessed by calculating the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Patients with high AIMS65 scores (≥2) were allocated to either the urgent or non-urgent endoscopic procedure group. In-hospital mortality, success of endoscopic procedure, recurrence of bleeding, admission period, and dose of transfusion were compared between groups. Results: A total of 634 patients were analyzed. The AIMS65 score successfully predicted mortality (AUROC=0.943; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.876 to 0.99) and was superior to the Rockall score (AUROC=0.856; 95% CI, 0.743 to 0.969) in predicting mortality. The group with high AIMS65 score included 200 patients. The urgent endoscopic procedure group had reduced hospitalization periods (p<0.05) Conclusions: AIMS65 score may be useful in predicting mortality in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Urgent endoscopic procedures in patients with high scores may be related to reduced hospitalization periods. PMID:26668799

Inequities in maternal and child health outcomes and interventions in Ghana.

PubMed

Zere, Eyob; Kirigia, Joses M; Duale, Sambe; Akazili, James

2012-03-31

With the date for achieving the targets of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) approaching fast, there is a heightened concern about equity, as inequities hamper progress towards the MDGs. Equity-focused approaches have the potential to accelerate the progress towards achieving the health-related MDGs faster than the current pace in a more cost-effective and sustainable manner. Ghana's rate of progress towards MDGs 4 and 5 related to reducing child and maternal mortality respectively is less than what is required to achieve the targets. The objective of this paper is to examine the equity dimension of child and maternal health outcomes and interventions using Ghana as a case study. Data from Ghana Demographic and Health Survey 2008 report is analyzed for inequities in selected maternal and child health outcomes and interventions using population-weighted, regression-based measures: slope index of inequality and relative index of inequality. No statistically significant inequities are observed in infant and under-five mortality, perinatal mortality, wasting and acute respiratory infection in children. However, stunting, underweight in under-five children, anaemia in children and women, childhood diarrhoea and underweight in women (BMI < 18.5) show inequities that are to the disadvantage of the poorest. The rates significantly decrease among the wealthiest quintile as compared to the poorest. In contrast, overweight (BMI 25-29.9) and obesity (BMI ≥ 30) among women reveals a different trend - there are inequities in favour of the poorest. In other words, in Ghana overweight and obesity increase significantly among women in the wealthiest quintile compared to the poorest. With respect to interventions: treatment of diarrhoea in children, receiving all basic vaccines among children and sleeping under ITN (children and pregnant women) have no wealth-related gradient. Skilled care at birth, deliveries in a health facility (both public and private), caesarean section, use of modern contraceptives and intermittent preventive treatment for malaria during pregnancy all indicate gradients that are in favour of the wealthiest. The poorest use less of these interventions. Not unexpectedly, there is more use of home delivery among women of the poorest quintile. Significant Inequities are observed in many of the selected child and maternal health outcomes and interventions. Failure to address these inequities vigorously is likely to lead to non-achievement of the MDG targets related to improving child and maternal health (MDGs 4 and 5). The government should therefore give due attention to tackling inequities in health outcomes and use of interventions by implementing equity-enhancing measure both within and outside the health sector in line with the principles of Primary Health Care and the recommendations of the WHO Commission on Social Determinants of Health.

Management and postoperative outcome in primary lung cancer and heart disease co-morbidity: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Analitis, Antonis; Michaelides, Stylianos A.; Charalabopoulos, Konstantinos A.; Tzonou, Anastasia

2016-01-01

Background Co-morbidity of primary lung cancer (LC) and heart disease (HD), both requiring surgical therapy, characterizes a high risk group of patients necessitating prompt diagnosis and treatment. The aim of this study is the review of available evidence guiding the management of these patients. Methods Postoperative outcome of patients operated for primary LC (first meta-analysis) and for both primary LC and HD co-morbidity (second meta-analysis), were studied. Parameters examined in both meta-analyses were thirty-day postoperative mortality, postoperative complications, three- and five-year survival probabilities. The last 36 years were reviewed by using the PubMed data base. Thirty-seven studies were qualified for both meta-analyses. Results The pooled 30-day mortality percentages (%) were 4.16% [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.68–5.95] (first meta-analysis) and 5.26% (95% CI: 3.47–7.62) (second meta-analysis). Higher percentages of squamous histology and lobectomy, were significantly associated with increased (P=0.001) and decreased (P<0.001) thirty-day postoperative mortality, respectively (first meta-analysis). The pooled percentages for postoperative complications were 34.32% (95% CI: 24.59–44.75) (first meta-analysis) and 45.59% (95% CI: 35.62–55.74) (second meta-analysis). Higher percentages of squamous histology (P=0.001), lobectomy (P=0.002) and p-T1 or p-T2 (P=0.034) were associated with higher proportions of postoperative complications (second meta-analysis). The pooled three- and five- year survival probabilities were 68.25% (95% CI: 45.93–86.86) and 52.03% (95% CI: 34.71–69.11), respectively. Higher mean age (P=0.046) and percentage lobectomy (P=0.009) significantly reduced the five-year survival probability. Conclusions Lobectomy and age were both accompanied by reduced five-year survival rate. Also, combined aorto-coronary bypass grafting (CABG) with lobectomy for squamous pT1 or pT2 LC displayed a higher risk of postoperative complications. Moreover, medical decision between combined or staged surgery is suggested to be individualized based on adequacy of coronary arterial perfusion, age, patient’s preoperative performance status (taking into account possible co-morbidities per patient), tumor’s staging and extent of lung resection. PMID:27386487

A comparative analysis of early child health and development services and outcomes in countries with different redistributive policies

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The social environment is a fundamental determinant of early child development and, in turn, early child development is a determinant of health, well-being, and learning skills across the life course. Redistributive policies aimed at reducing social inequalities, such as a welfare state and labour market policies, have shown a positive association with selected health indicators. In this study, we investigated the influence of redistributive policies specifically on the social environment of early child development in five countries with different political traditions. The objective of this analysis was to highlight similarities and differences in social and health services between the countries and their associations with other health outcomes that can inform better global early child development policies and improve early child health and development. Methods Four social determinants of early child development were selected to provide a cross-section of key time periods in a child’s life from prenatal to kindergarten. They included: 1) prenatal care, 2) maternal leave, 3) child health care, and 4) child care and early childhood education. We searched international databases and reports (e.g. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, World Bank, and UNICEF) to obtain information about early child development policies, services and outcomes. Results Although a comparative analysis cannot claim causation, our analysis suggests that redistributive policies aimed at reducing social inequalities are associated with a positive influence on the social determinants of early child development. Generous redistributive policies are associated with a higher maternal leave allowance and pay and more preventive child healthcare visits. A decreasing trend in infant mortality, low birth weight rate, and under five mortality rate were observed with an increase in redistributive policies. No clear influence of redistributive policies was observed on breastfeeding and immunization rates. In the analysis of child care and early education, the lack of uniform measures of early child development outcomes was apparent. Conclusions This paper provides further support for an association between redistributive policies and early child health and development outcomes, along with the organization of early child health and development services. PMID:24195544

A comparative analysis of early child health and development services and outcomes in countries with different redistributive policies.

PubMed

van den Heuvel, Meta; Hopkins, Jessica; Biscaro, Anne; Srikanthan, Cinntha; Feller, Andrea; Bremberg, Sven; Verkuijl, Nienke; Flapper, Boudien; Ford-Jones, Elizabeth Lee; Williams, Robin

2013-11-06

The social environment is a fundamental determinant of early child development and, in turn, early child development is a determinant of health, well-being, and learning skills across the life course. Redistributive policies aimed at reducing social inequalities, such as a welfare state and labour market policies, have shown a positive association with selected health indicators. In this study, we investigated the influence of redistributive policies specifically on the social environment of early child development in five countries with different political traditions. The objective of this analysis was to highlight similarities and differences in social and health services between the countries and their associations with other health outcomes that can inform better global early child development policies and improve early child health and development. Four social determinants of early child development were selected to provide a cross-section of key time periods in a child's life from prenatal to kindergarten. They included: 1) prenatal care, 2) maternal leave, 3) child health care, and 4) child care and early childhood education. We searched international databases and reports (e.g. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, World Bank, and UNICEF) to obtain information about early child development policies, services and outcomes. Although a comparative analysis cannot claim causation, our analysis suggests that redistributive policies aimed at reducing social inequalities are associated with a positive influence on the social determinants of early child development. Generous redistributive policies are associated with a higher maternal leave allowance and pay and more preventive child healthcare visits. A decreasing trend in infant mortality, low birth weight rate, and under five mortality rate were observed with an increase in redistributive policies. No clear influence of redistributive policies was observed on breastfeeding and immunization rates. In the analysis of child care and early education, the lack of uniform measures of early child development outcomes was apparent. This paper provides further support for an association between redistributive policies and early child health and development outcomes, along with the organization of early child health and development services.

Establishment of Cancer Stem Cell Cultures from Human Conventional Osteosarcoma.

PubMed

Palmini, Gaia; Zonefrati, Roberto; Mavilia, Carmelo; Aldinucci, Alessandra; Luzi, Ettore; Marini, Francesca; Franchi, Alessandro; Capanna, Rodolfo; Tanini, Annalisa; Brandi, Maria Luisa

2016-10-14

The current improvements in therapy against osteosarcoma (OS) have prolonged the lives of cancer patients, but the survival rate of five years remains poor when metastasis has occurred. The Cancer Stem Cell (CSC) theory holds that there is a subset of tumor cells within the tumor that have stem-like characteristics, including the capacity to maintain the tumor and to resist multidrug chemotherapy. Therefore, a better understanding of OS biology and pathogenesis is needed in order to advance the development of targeted therapies to eradicate this particular subset and to reduce morbidity and mortality among patients. Isolating CSCs, establishing cell cultures of CSCs, and studying their biology are important steps to improving our understanding of OS biology and pathogenesis. The establishment of human-derived OS-CSCs from biopsies of OS has been made possible using several methods, including the capacity to create 3-dimensional stem cell cultures under nonadherent conditions. Under these conditions, CSCs are able to create spherical floating colonies formed by daughter stem cells; these colonies are termed "cellular spheres". Here, we describe a method to establish CSC cultures from primary cell cultures of conventional OS obtained from OS biopsies. We clearly describe the several passages required to isolate and characterize CSCs.

Risk Communication of Groundwater Quality in Northern Malawi, Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holm, R.

2011-12-01

Malawi lies in Africa's Great Rift Valley. Its western border is defined by Lake Malawi, the third largest lake in Africa. Over 80% of Malawians live in rural areas and 90% of the labor force is associated with agriculture. More than half of the population lives below the poverty line. Area characteristics indicate a high likelihood of nitrate and total coliform in community drinking water. Infants exposed to high nitrate are at risk of developing methemoglobinemia. In addition, diarrheal diseases from unsafe drinking water are one of the top causes of mortality in children under five. Without sufficient and sustainable supplies of clean water, these challenges will continue to threaten Malawi's ability to overcome the devastating impact of diarrheal diseases on its population. Therefore, Malawi remains highly dependent on outside assistance and influence to reduce or eliminate the threat posed by unsafe drinking water. This research presents a literature review of nitrate and total coliform groundwater quality and a proposed risk communication plan for drinking water in northern Malawi.