Science.gov

Sample records for regional cost estimates

  1. Probabilistic estimation of numbers and costs of future landslides in the San Francisco Bay region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Crovelli, R.A.; Coe, J.A.

    2009-01-01

    We used historical records of damaging landslides triggered by rainstorms and a newly developed Probabilistic Landslide Assessment Cost Estimation System (PLACES) to estimate the numbers and direct costs of future landslides in the 10-county San Francisco Bay region. Historical records of damaging landslides in the region are incomplete. Therefore, our estimates of numbers and costs of future landslides are minimal estimates. The estimated mean annual number of future damaging landslides for the entire 10-county region is about 65. Santa Cruz County has the highest estimated mean annual number of damaging future landslides (about 18), whereas Napa, San Francisco, and Solano Counties have the lowest estimated mean numbers of damaging landslides (about 1 each). The estimated mean annual cost of future landslides in the entire region is about US $14.80 million (year 2000 $). The estimated mean annual cost is highest for San Mateo County ($3.24 million) and lowest for Solano County ($0.18 million). The annual per capita cost for the entire region will be about $2.10. Santa Cruz County will have the highest annual per capita cost at $8.45, whereas San Francisco County will have the lowest per capita cost at $0.31. Normalising costs by dividing by the percentage of land area with slopes equal to or greater than 17% indicates that San Francisco County will have the highest cost per square km ($7,101), whereas Santa Clara County will have the lowest cost per square km ($229). These results indicate that the San Francisco Bay region has one of the highest levels of landslide risk in the United States. Compared with landslide cost estimates from the rest of the world, the risk level in the Bay region seems high, but not exceptionally high.

  2. Cost estimation for solid waste management in industrialising regions - Precedents, problems and prospects

    SciTech Connect

    Parthan, Shantha R.; Milke, Mark W.; Wilson, David C.; Cocks, John H.

    2012-03-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We review cost estimation approaches for solid waste management. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Unit cost method and benchmarking techniques used in industrialising regions (IR). Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Variety in scope, quality and stakeholders makes cost estimation challenging in IR. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Integrate waste flow and cost models using cost functions to improve cost planning. - Abstract: The importance of cost planning for solid waste management (SWM) in industrialising regions (IR) is not well recognised. The approaches used to estimate costs of SWM can broadly be classified into three categories - the unit cost method, benchmarking techniques and developing cost models using sub-approaches such as cost and production function analysis. These methods have been developed into computer programmes with varying functionality and utility. IR mostly use the unit cost and benchmarking approach to estimate their SWM costs. The models for cost estimation, on the other hand, are used at times in industrialised countries, but not in IR. Taken together, these approaches could be viewed as precedents that can be modified appropriately to suit waste management systems in IR. The main challenges (or problems) one might face while attempting to do so are a lack of cost data, and a lack of quality for what data do exist. There are practical benefits to planners in IR where solid waste problems are critical and budgets are limited.

  3. Regional Cost Estimates for Reclamation Practices on Arid and Semiarid Lands

    SciTech Connect

    W. K. Ostler

    2002-02-01

    The U.S. Army uses the Integrated Training Area Management program for managing training land. One of the major objectives of the Integrated Training Area Management program has been to develop a method for estimating training land carrying capacity in a sustainable manner. The Army Training and Testing Area Carrying Capacity methodology measures training load in terms of Maneuver Impact Miles. One Maneuver Impact Mile is the equivalent impact of an M1A2 tank traveling one mile while participating in an armor battalion field training exercise. The Army Training and Testing Area Carrying Capacity methodology is also designed to predict land maintenance costs in terms of dollars per Maneuver Impact Mile. The overall cost factor is calculated using the historical cost of land maintenance practices and the effectiveness of controlling erosion. Because land maintenance costs and effectiveness are influenced by the characteristics of the land, Army Training and Testing Area Carrying Capacity cost factors must be developed for each ecological region of the country. Costs for land maintenance activities are presented here for the semiarid and arid regions of the United States. Five ecoregions are recognized, and average values for reclamation activities are presented. Because there are many variables that can influence costs, ranges for reclamation activities are also presented. Costs are broken down into six major categories: seedbed preparation, fertilization, seeding, planting, mulching, and supplemental erosion control. Costs for most land reclamation practices and materials varied widely within and between ecological provinces. Although regional cost patterns were evident for some practices, the patterns were not consistent between practices. For the purpose of estimating land reclamation costs for the Army Training and Testing Area Carrying Capacity methodology, it may be desirable to use the ''Combined Average'' of all provinces found in the last row of each table

  4. Price and cost estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stewart, R. D.

    1979-01-01

    Price and Cost Estimating Program (PACE II) was developed to prepare man-hour and material cost estimates. Versatile and flexible tool significantly reduces computation time and errors and reduces typing and reproduction time involved in preparation of cost estimates.

  5. Probabilistic Methodology for Estimation of Number and Economic Loss (Cost) of Future Landslides in the San Francisco Bay Region, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Crovelli, Robert A.; Coe, Jeffrey A.

    2008-01-01

    The Probabilistic Landslide Assessment Cost Estimation System (PLACES) presented in this report estimates the number and economic loss (cost) of landslides during a specified future time in individual areas, and then calculates the sum of those estimates. The analytic probabilistic methodology is based upon conditional probability theory and laws of expectation and variance. The probabilistic methodology is expressed in the form of a Microsoft Excel computer spreadsheet program. Using historical records, the PLACES spreadsheet is used to estimate the number of future damaging landslides and total damage, as economic loss, from future landslides caused by rainstorms in 10 counties of the San Francisco Bay region in California. Estimates are made for any future 5-year period of time. The estimated total number of future damaging landslides for the entire 10-county region during any future 5-year period of time is about 330. Santa Cruz County has the highest estimated number of damaging landslides (about 90), whereas Napa, San Francisco, and Solano Counties have the lowest estimated number of damaging landslides (5?6 each). Estimated direct costs from future damaging landslides for the entire 10-county region for any future 5-year period are about US $76 million (year 2000 dollars). San Mateo County has the highest estimated costs ($16.62 million), and Solano County has the lowest estimated costs (about $0.90 million). Estimated direct costs are also subdivided into public and private costs.

  6. Regional economic activity and absenteeism: a new approach to estimating the indirect costs of employee productivity loss.

    PubMed

    Bankert, Brian; Coberley, Carter; Pope, James E; Wells, Aaron

    2015-02-01

    This paper presents a new approach to estimating the indirect costs of health-related absenteeism. Productivity losses related to employee absenteeism have negative business implications for employers and these losses effectively deprive the business of an expected level of employee labor. The approach herein quantifies absenteeism cost using an output per labor hour-based method and extends employer-level results to the region. This new approach was applied to the employed population of 3 health insurance carriers. The economic cost of absenteeism was estimated to be $6.8 million, $0.8 million, and $0.7 million on average for the 3 employers; regional losses were roughly twice the magnitude of employer-specific losses. The new approach suggests that costs related to absenteeism for high output per labor hour industries exceed similar estimates derived from application of the human capital approach. The materially higher costs under the new approach emphasize the importance of accurately estimating productivity losses.

  7. Estimating Airline Operating Costs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maddalon, D. V.

    1978-01-01

    The factors affecting commercial aircraft operating and delay costs were used to develop an airline operating cost model which includes a method for estimating the labor and material costs of individual airframe maintenance systems. The model permits estimates of aircraft related costs, i.e., aircraft service, landing fees, flight attendants, and control fees. A method for estimating the costs of certain types of airline delay is also described.

  8. Estimating airline operating costs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maddalon, D. V.

    1978-01-01

    A review was made of the factors affecting commercial aircraft operating and delay costs. From this work, an airline operating cost model was developed which includes a method for estimating the labor and material costs of individual airframe maintenance systems. The model, similar in some respects to the standard Air Transport Association of America (ATA) Direct Operating Cost Model, permits estimates of aircraft-related costs not now included in the standard ATA model (e.g., aircraft service, landing fees, flight attendants, and control fees). A study of the cost of aircraft delay was also made and a method for estimating the cost of certain types of airline delay is described.

  9. Estimating the costs of collective treatment of wastewater: the case of Walloon Region (Belgium).

    PubMed

    Dogot, Thomas; Xanthoulis, Yanni; Fonder, Nathalie; Xanthoulis, Dimitri

    2010-01-01

    This paper contributes to a better understanding of costs for collective wastewater treatment in the Walloon Region (Belgium). Based on a large set of data, unit costs to population equivalents are modelled. Considering investment as well as exploitation costs, the model includes not only wastewater treatment plants but also collector and sewage networks in an integrated approach at the technical basin level. Beyond this modelling, each type of process is analyzed independently in order to explore the structure of investment costs and their variation factors. Then, the model was used to forecast the upcoming expenses for 36 areas which are not yet equipped with collective wastewater treatment facilities. In light of these results, strategic choices for decision makers are discussed.

  10. Estimated costs of maintaining a recovered wolf population in agricultural regions of Minnesota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mech, L.D.

    1999-01-01

    The annual costs of maintaining Minnesota gray wolves (Canis lupus), now numbering about 2,500, under 2 plans are compared: (1) maintaining a population of about 1,400 primarily in the wilderness and semi-wilderness as recommended by the Eastern Timber Wolf Recovery Plan, and (2) allowing wolves to continue colonizing agricultural areas for 5 years after removal from the endangered species list, as recommended by a consensus of wolf stakeholders (Minnesota Wolf Management Roundtable). Under the first plan, each year an estimated 27 farms would suffer livestock losses; wolves would kilt about 3 dogs; 36 wolves would be destroyed; and the cost per wolf in the total population would be $86. Under the second plan, conservative estimates are that by the year 2005, there would be an estimated 3,500 wolves; each year 94-171 farms would suffer damage; wolves would kill 8-52 dogs; 109-438 wolves would have to be killed for depredation control; and the annual cost averaged over the total population would be $86 for each of the 1,438 wolves living primarily in the wilderness and an additional $197 for each wolf outside the wilderness.

  11. Equipment Cost Estimator

    SciTech Connect

    2016-08-24

    The ECE application forecasts annual costs of preventive and corrective maintenance for budgeting purposes. Features within the application enable the user to change the specifications of the model to customize your forecast to best fit their needs and support “what if” analysis. Based on the user's selections, the ECE model forecasts annual maintenance costs. Preventive maintenance costs include the cost of labor to perform preventive maintenance activities at the specific frequency and labor rate. Corrective maintenance costs include the cost of labor and the cost of replacement parts. The application presents forecasted maintenance costs for the next five years in two tables: costs by year and costs by site.

  12. Impact Of Landslides Along Road Network And Direct Cost Estimation: A Case Study In Marche Region, Central Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salvati, P.; Donnini, M.; Guzzetti, F.; Ardizzone, F.; Cardinali, M.; Bucci, F.; Fiorucci, F.; Alvioli, M.; Santangelo, M.

    2014-12-01

    In November and December 2013, the Marche region (Central Italy) was hit by three severe, but not rare, meteorological events. The maximum value of the three days cumulative rainfall (499 mm) was recorded at the rain gauge of Pintura di Bolognola. The intense rainfall caused floods along the rivers and triggered numerous landslides, mostly located in the hilly and mountainous terrain of the region. The territory is crossed by a large number of roads connecting small rural settlements. After the events, the Regional Civil Protection Office requested to the Research Institute for the geo-hydrological Protection (IRPI-CNR) a technical support to evaluate the hazard condition for different sites affected by landslides. For an area of approximately 200 km2, in the Municipalities of Acquasanta Terme and Roccafluvione, field surveys were carried out to identify the rainfall-induced landslides and to produce an event inventory map. More than 1,500 slope failures were mapped including earth flows, slide-earth flows, slides, rock-falls and complex slides. Field surveys were focused also to estimate qualitatively damages along the roads. Roads were classified in two classes: the main roads under the State responsibility and the secondary roads under the Municipality responsibility. The different types of damage were classified in three classes: i) aesthetic (minor), where the road functionality was not compromised; ii) functional (medium), where the functionality was compromised and iii) structural (severe) where roads are severely or completely damaged. Immediately after the event, the technicians of the Municipalities of Acquasanta Terme and Roccafluvione spent major efforts to partially restore the functionality of the secondary roads in order to guarantee the primary human needs. In the following ten days, they compiled a list of interventions, associated with the relative direct costs, aimed to the total restoration of the roads functionality. In collaboration with the

  13. Manned Mars mission cost estimate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamaker, Joseph; Smith, Keith

    1986-01-01

    The potential costs of several options of a manned Mars mission are examined. A cost estimating methodology based primarily on existing Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) parametric cost models is summarized. These models include the MSFC Space Station Cost Model and the MSFC Launch Vehicle Cost Model as well as other modes and techniques. The ground rules and assumptions of the cost estimating methodology are discussed and cost estimates presented for six potential mission options which were studied. The estimated manned Mars mission costs are compared to the cost of the somewhat analogous Apollo Program cost after normalizing the Apollo cost to the environment and ground rules of the manned Mars missions. It is concluded that a manned Mars mission, as currently defined, could be accomplished for under $30 billion in 1985 dollars excluding launch vehicle development and mission operations.

  14. Estimation of health and economic costs of air pollution over the Pearl River Delta region in China.

    PubMed

    Lu, Xingcheng; Yao, Teng; Fung, Jimmy C H; Lin, Changqing

    2016-10-01

    The Pearl River Delta region (PRD) is the economic growth engine of China and also one of the most urbanized regions in the world. As a two-sided sword, rapid economic development causes air pollution and poses adverse health effects to the citizens in this area. This work estimated the negative health effects in the PRD caused by the four major ambient pollutants (SO2, NO2, O3 and PM10) from 2010 to 2013 by using a log linear exposure-response function and the WRF-CMAQ modeling system. Economic loss due to mortality and morbidity was evaluated by the value of statistical life (VSL) and cost of illness (COI) methods. The results show that the overall possible short-term all-cause mortality due to NO2, O3 and PM10 reached the highest in 2013 with the values being 13,217-22,800. The highest total economic loss, which ranged from 14,768 to 25,305million USD, occurred in 2013 and was equivalent to 1.4%-2.3% of the local gross domestic product. The monthly profile of cases of negative health effects varied by city and the types of ambient pollutants. The ratio of mortality attributed to air pollutants to total population was higher in urban areas than in rural areas. People living in the countryside should consider the possible adverse health effects of urban areas before they plan a move to the city. The results show that the health burden caused by the ambient pollutants over this region is serious and suggest that tighter control policies should be implemented in the future to reduce the level of air pollution.

  15. ARSENIC REMOVAL COST ESTIMATING PROGRAM

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Arsenic Removal Cost Estimating program (Excel) calculates the costs for using adsorptive media and anion exchange treatment systems to remove arsenic from drinking water. The program is an easy-to-use tool to estimate capital and operating costs for three types of arsenic re...

  16. Estimating the Cost of Doing a Cost Estimate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Remer, D. S.; Buchanan, H. R.

    1996-01-01

    This article provides a model for estimating the cost required to do a cost estimate...Our earlier work provided data for high technology projects. This article adds data from the construction industry which validates the model over a wider range of technology.

  17. Regional public health cost estimates of contaminated coastal waters: a case study of gastroenteritis at southern California beaches.

    PubMed

    Given, Suzan; Pendleton, Linwood H; Boehm, Alexandria B

    2006-08-15

    We present estimates of annual public health impacts, both illnesses and cost of illness, attributable to excess gastrointestinal illnesses caused by swimming in contaminated coastal waters at beaches in southern California. Beach-specific enterococci densities are used as inputs to two epidemiological dose-response models to predict the risk of gastrointestinal illness at 28 beaches spanning 160 km of coastline in Los Angeles and Orange Counties. We use attendance data along with the health cost of gastrointestinal illness to estimate the number of illnesses among swimmers and their likely economic impact. We estimate that between 627,800 and 1,479,200 excess gastrointestinal illnesses occur at beaches in Los Angeles and Orange Counties each year. Using a conservative health cost of gastroenteritis, this corresponds to an annual economic loss of dollars 21 or dollars 51 million depending upon the underlying epidemiological model used (in year 2000 dollars). Results demonstrate that improving coastal water quality could result in a reduction of gastrointestinal illnesses locally and a concurrent savings in expenditures on related health care costs.

  18. Development of underground-mine cost-estimating equations. [Dependence of initial capital cost, deferred capital cost and annual operating cost on region, annual mine output and seam depth

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-03-06

    Table 3.3 summarizes the initial capital, deferred capital, and operating costs (in millions of 1980 dollars) for the four regionally-based underground model mines. The initial capital is divided into two components, fixed and variable. The fixed component is just the investment cost for surface facilities, which is assumed to be independent of mine size. The rest of the initial capital cost is associated with production (primarily face-related) and is assumed to vary linearly with mine size (i.e., annual output). There exists a concern that deferred capital costs will change due to entry mode. However, the installations concerned primarily with this point are depreciated off over the mine life and are not targeted for replacement. Therefore, deferred capital costs will not change significantly with entry mode changes or seam depth. In conclusion, it is our feeling that, within the resources of this project, development of cost adjustment factors relating productivity to various supply regions and seam heights is not practical. Assuming that productivity and, therefore, cost is independent of seam height will introduce errors into the system; however, their extent should be minimized by the incorporation of multiple model mines into the RAMC. Lastly, the relationship presented in this memorandum for depth of cover should be used in the RAMC.

  19. The Psychology of Cost Estimating

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Price, Andy

    2016-01-01

    Cost estimation for large (and even not so large) government programs is a challenge. The number and magnitude of cost overruns associated with large Department of Defense (DoD) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) programs highlight the difficulties in developing and promulgating accurate cost estimates. These overruns can be the result of inadequate technology readiness or requirements definition, the whims of politicians or government bureaucrats, or even as failures of the cost estimating profession itself. However, there may be another reason for cost overruns that is right in front of us, but only recently have we begun to grasp it: the fact that cost estimators and their customers are human. The last 70+ years of research into human psychology and behavioral economics have yielded amazing findings into how we humans process and use information to make judgments and decisions. What these scientists have uncovered is surprising: humans are often irrational and illogical beings, making decisions based on factors such as emotion and perception, rather than facts and data. These built-in biases to our thinking directly affect how we develop our cost estimates and how those cost estimates are used. We cost estimators can use this knowledge of biases to improve our cost estimates and also to improve how we communicate and work with our customers. By understanding how our customers think, and more importantly, why they think the way they do, we can have more productive relationships and greater influence. By using psychology to our advantage, we can more effectively help the decision maker and our organizations make fact-based decisions.

  20. Spacecraft platform cost estimating relationships

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gruhl, W. M.

    1972-01-01

    The three main cost areas of unmanned satellite development are discussed. The areas are identified as: (1) the spacecraft platform (SCP), (2) the payload or experiments, and (3) the postlaunch ground equipment and operations. The SCP normally accounts for over half of the total project cost and accurate estimates of SCP costs are required early in project planning as a basis for determining total project budget requirements. The development of single formula SCP cost estimating relationships (CER) from readily available data by statistical linear regression analysis is described. The advantages of single formula CER are presented.

  1. Solar power satellite cost estimate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harron, R. J.; Wadle, R. C.

    1981-01-01

    The solar power configuration costed is the 5 GW silicon solar cell reference system. The subsystems identified by work breakdown structure elements to the lowest level for which cost information was generated. This breakdown divides into five sections: the satellite, construction, transportation, the ground receiving station and maintenance. For each work breakdown structure element, a definition, design description and cost estimate were included. An effort was made to include for each element a reference that more thoroughly describes the element and the method of costing used. All costs are in 1977 dollars.

  2. Estimating 'costs' for cost-effectiveness analysis.

    PubMed

    Miners, Alec

    2008-01-01

    Since 1999, the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) Technology Appraisal Programme has been charged with producing guidance for the NHS in England and Wales on the appropriate use of new and existing healthcare programmes. Guidance is based on an assessment of a number of factors, including cost effectiveness. The identification, measurement and valuation of costs are important components of any cost-effectiveness analysis. However, working through these steps raises a number of important methodological questions. For example, how should 'future' resource use be estimated, and is there a need to consider all 'future' costs? Given that NICE produces national guidance, should national unit cost data be used to value resources or should local variations in negotiated prices be taken into account? This paper was initially prepared as a briefing paper as part of the process of updating NICE's 2004 Guide to the Methods of Technology Appraisal for a workshop on 'costs'. It outlines the issues that were raised in the original briefing paper and the subsequent questions that were discussed at the workshop.

  3. Acquisition Cost/Price Estimating

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-01-01

    REVIEW AND VALIDATION, (3) RESEARCH AND METHODOLOGY AND (4) DATA ANALYSIS. THESE FUNCTIONAL THRUSTS ARE IN TURN FOCUSED TO ESTIMATING AND ANALISIS ...RELATIONSHIPS, CERs, IS LARGELY A FUNCTION OF THE QUANTITY AND QUALITY OF DATA THAT IS AVAILABLE AT THE TINE OF FORMULATION. IN ORDER TO ENSURE THAT SUCH COST...HAVE BEEN DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY AS GOOD SOURCES OF DATA FOR COST ESTIMATING. THEIR PRIMARY FUNCTION , HOWEVER, IS TO PROVIDE THE ARMY WITH EARLY

  4. Software Development Cost Estimating Handbook

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-04-21

    Hill AFB, UT Researching Blueprinting Technical writing I t l i i / ditin erna rev ew ng e ng Naval Center for Cost Analysis (NCCA), Arlington, VA...development processes Software estimating models Defense Acquisition Framework Data collection Acronyms T i lerm no ogy References Systems & Software...Designed for readability and comprehension Large right margin for notes Systems & Software Technology Conference 921 April 2009 Part I - Basics

  5. Cost Estimation and Control for Flight Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hammond, Walter E.; Vanhook, Michael E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Good program management practices, cost analysis, cost estimation, and cost control for aerospace flight systems are interrelated and depend upon each other. The best cost control process cannot overcome poor design or poor systems trades that lead to the wrong approach. The project needs robust Technical, Schedule, Cost, Risk, and Cost Risk practices before it can incorporate adequate Cost Control. Cost analysis both precedes and follows cost estimation -- the two are closely coupled with each other and with Risk analysis. Parametric cost estimating relationships and computerized models are most often used. NASA has learned some valuable lessons in controlling cost problems, and recommends use of a summary Project Manager's checklist as shown here.

  6. Supplemental report on cost estimates'

    SciTech Connect

    1992-04-29

    The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have completed an analysis of the Department of Energy's (DOE) Fiscal Year (FY) 1993 budget request for its Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (ERWM) program. The results were presented to an interagency review group (IAG) of senior-Administration officials for their consideration in the budget process. This analysis included evaluations of the underlying legal requirements and cost estimates on which the ERWM budget request was based. The major conclusions are contained in a separate report entitled, ''Interagency Review of the Department of Energy Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Program.'' This Corps supplemental report provides greater detail on the cost analysis.

  7. Estimating decommissioning costs: The 1994 YNPS decommissioning cost study

    SciTech Connect

    Szymczak, W.J.

    1994-12-31

    Early this year, Yankee Atomic Electric Company began developing a revised decommissioning cost estimate for the Yankee Nuclear Power Station (YNPS) to provide a basis for detailed decommissioning planning and to reflect slow progress in siting low-level waste (LLW) and spent-nuclear-fuel disposal facilities. The revision also reflects the need to change from a cost estimate that focuses on overall costs to a cost estimate that is sufficiently detailed to implement decommissioning and identify the final cost of decommissioning.

  8. Estimating the Costs of Preventive Interventions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, E. Michael; Porter, Michele M.; Ayers, Tim S.; Kaplan, Debra L.; Sandler, Irwin

    2007-01-01

    The goal of this article is to improve the practice and reporting of cost estimates of prevention programs. It reviews the steps in estimating the costs of an intervention and the principles that should guide estimation. The authors then review prior efforts to estimate intervention costs using a sample of well-known but diverse studies. Finally,…

  9. A model for the cost of doing a cost estimate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Remer, D. S.; Buchanan, H. R.

    1992-01-01

    A model for estimating the cost required to do a cost estimate for Deep Space Network (DSN) projects that range from $0.1 to $100 million is presented. The cost of the cost estimate in thousands of dollars, C(sub E), is found to be approximately given by C(sub E) = K((C(sub p))(sup 0.35)) where C(sub p) is the cost of the project being estimated in millions of dollars and K is a constant depending on the accuracy of the estimate. For an order-of-magnitude estimate, K = 24; for a budget estimate, K = 60; and for a definitive estimate, K = 115. That is, for a specific project, the cost of doing a budget estimate is about 2.5 times as much as that for an order-of-magnitude estimate, and a definitive estimate costs about twice as much as a budget estimate. Use of this model should help provide the level of resources required for doing cost estimates and, as a result, provide insights towards more accurate estimates with less potential for cost overruns.

  10. Hydrogen Station Cost Estimates: Comparing Hydrogen Station Cost Calculator Results with other Recent Estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Melaina, M.; Penev, M.

    2013-09-01

    This report compares hydrogen station cost estimates conveyed by expert stakeholders through the Hydrogen Station Cost Calculation (HSCC) to a select number of other cost estimates. These other cost estimates include projections based upon cost models and costs associated with recently funded stations.

  11. Regional and National Estimates of the PotentialEnergy Use, Energy Cost, and CO{sub 2} Emissions Associated with Radon Mitigation by Sub-slab Depressurization

    SciTech Connect

    Riley, W.J.; Fisk, W.J.; Gadgil, A.J.

    1996-03-01

    Active sub-slab depressurization (SSD) systems are an effective means of reducing indoor radon concentrations in residential buildings. However, energy is required to operate the system fan and to heat or cool the resulting increased building ventilation. We present regional and national estimates of the energy requirements, operating expenses, and CO{sub 2} emissions associated with using SSD systems at saturation (i.e., in all U.S. homes with radon concentrations above the EPA remediation guideline and either basement or slab-on-grade construction). The primary source of uncertainty in these estimates is the impact of the SSD system on house ventilation rate. Overall, individual SSD system operating expenses are highest in the Northeast and Midwest at about $99 y{sup -1}, and lowest in the South and West at about $66 y{sup -1}. The fan consumes, on average, about 40% of the end-use energy used to operate the SSD system and accounts for about 60% of the annual expense. At saturation, regional impacts are largest in the Midwest because this area has a large number of mitigable houses and a relatively high heating load. We estimate that operating SSD systems in U.S. houses where it is both appropriate and possible (about 2.6 million houses), will annually consume 1.7 x 10{sup 4} (6.4 x 10{sup 3} to 3.9 x 10{sup 4}) TJ of end-use energy, cost $230 (130 to 400) million (at current energy prices), and generate 2.0 x 10{sup 9} (1.2 x 10{sup 9} to 3.5 x 10{sup 9}) kg of CO{sub 2}. Passive or energy efficient radon mitigation systems currently being developed offer opportunities to substantially reduce these impacts.

  12. A better approach to cost estimation.

    PubMed

    Richmond, Russ

    2013-03-01

    Using ratios of costs to charges (RCCs) to estimate costs can cause hospitals to significantly over- or under-invest in service lines. A focus on improving cost estimation in cost centers where physicians have significant control over operating expenses, such as drugs or implants, can strengthen decision making and strategic planning. Connecting patient file information to purchasing data can lead to more accurate reflections of actual costs and help hospitals gain better visibility across service lines.

  13. Virtualness of the Cost Estimating Community

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-03-01

    VIRTUALNESS OF THE COST ESTIMATING COMMUNITY THESIS Whiticar S. Darvill , Capt, USAF AFIT/GCA/ENV/11-M01 DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR...of Master of Science in Cost Analysis Whiticar S. Darvill Capt, USAF March, 2011 APPROVED FOR RELEASE; DISTRUBUTION UNLIMITED AFIT...GCA/ENV/11-M01 VIRTUALNESS OF THE COST ESTIMATING COMMUNITY Whiticar S. Darvill Capt, USAF Approved: //SIGNED

  14. Estimating the cost of extremely large telescopes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stepp, Larry M.; Daggert, Larry G.; Gillett, Paul E.

    2003-01-01

    For future giant telescopes, control of construction and operation costs will be the key factor in their success. The best way to accomplish this cost control, while maximizing the performance of the telescope, will be through design-to-cost methods that use value engineering techniques to develop the most cost-effective design in terms of performance per dollar. This will require quantifiable measures of performance and cost, including: (1) a way of quantifying science value with scientific merit functions; (2) a way of predicting telescope performance in the presence of real-world disturbances by means of integrated modeling; and (3) a way of predicting the cost of multiple design configurations. Design-to-cost methods should be applied as early as possible in the project, since the majority of the life-cycle costs for the observatory will be locked in by choices made during the conceptual design phase. However, there is a dilemma: how can costs be accurately estimated for systems that have not yet been designed? This paper discusses cost estimating methods and describes their application to estimating the cost of ELTs, showing that the best method to use during the conceptual design phase is parametric cost estimating. Examples of parametric estimating techniques are described, based on experience gained from instrument development programs at NOAO. We then describe efforts underway to collect historical cost information and develop cost estimating relationships in preparation for the conceptual design phase of the Giant Segmented Mirror Telescope.

  15. Cost estimating methods for advanced space systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cyr, Kelley

    1988-01-01

    The development of parametric cost estimating methods for advanced space systems in the conceptual design phase is discussed. The process of identifying variables which drive cost and the relationship between weight and cost are discussed. A theoretical model of cost is developed and tested using a historical data base of research and development projects.

  16. Cost-estimating relationships for space programs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mandell, Humboldt C., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    Cost-estimating relationships (CERs) are defined and discussed as they relate to the estimation of theoretical costs for space programs. The paper primarily addresses CERs based on analogous relationships between physical and performance parameters to estimate future costs. Analytical estimation principles are reviewed examining the sources of errors in cost models, and the use of CERs is shown to be affected by organizational culture. Two paradigms for cost estimation are set forth: (1) the Rand paradigm for single-culture single-system methods; and (2) the Price paradigms that incorporate a set of cultural variables. For space programs that are potentially subject to even small cultural changes, the Price paradigms are argued to be more effective. The derivation and use of accurate CERs is important for developing effective cost models to analyze the potential of a given space program.

  17. Cost Estimating Handbook for Environmental Restoration

    SciTech Connect

    1990-09-01

    Environmental restoration (ER) projects have presented the DOE and cost estimators with a number of properties that are not comparable to the normal estimating climate within DOE. These properties include: An entirely new set of specialized expressions and terminology. A higher than normal exposure to cost and schedule risk, as compared to most other DOE projects, due to changing regulations, public involvement, resource shortages, and scope of work. A higher than normal percentage of indirect costs to the total estimated cost due primarily to record keeping, special training, liability, and indemnification. More than one estimate for a project, particularly in the assessment phase, in order to provide input into the evaluation of alternatives for the cleanup action. While some aspects of existing guidance for cost estimators will be applicable to environmental restoration projects, some components of the present guidelines will have to be modified to reflect the unique elements of these projects. The purpose of this Handbook is to assist cost estimators in the preparation of environmental restoration estimates for Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) projects undertaken by DOE. The DOE has, in recent years, seen a significant increase in the number, size, and frequency of environmental restoration projects that must be costed by the various DOE offices. The coming years will show the EM program to be the largest non-weapons program undertaken by DOE. These projects create new and unique estimating requirements since historical cost and estimating precedents are meager at best. It is anticipated that this Handbook will enhance the quality of cost data within DOE in several ways by providing: The basis for accurate, consistent, and traceable baselines. Sound methodologies, guidelines, and estimating formats. Sources of cost data/databases and estimating tools and techniques available at DOE cost professionals.

  18. Data Service Provider Cost Estimation Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fontaine, Kathy; Hunolt, Greg; Booth, Arthur L.; Banks, Mel

    2011-01-01

    The Data Service Provider Cost Estimation Tool (CET) and Comparables Database (CDB) package provides to NASA s Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) the ability to estimate the full range of year-by-year lifecycle cost estimates for the implementation and operation of data service providers required by ESE to support its science and applications programs. The CET can make estimates dealing with staffing costs, supplies, facility costs, network services, hardware and maintenance, commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) software licenses, software development and sustaining engineering, and the changes in costs that result from changes in workload. Data Service Providers may be stand-alone or embedded in flight projects, field campaigns, research or applications projects, or other activities. The CET and CDB package employs a cost-estimation-by-analogy approach. It is based on a new, general data service provider reference model that provides a framework for construction of a database by describing existing data service providers that are analogs (or comparables) to planned, new ESE data service providers. The CET implements the staff effort and cost estimation algorithms that access the CDB and generates the lifecycle cost estimate for a new data services provider. This data creates a common basis for an ESE proposal evaluator for considering projected data service provider costs.

  19. Estimating nursing costs--a methodological review.

    PubMed

    Chiang, Bea

    2009-05-01

    A critical cost accounting issue relating to nursing costs is that nursing costs are currently averaged into the daily room rate in the hospitals. This accounting practice treats nursing units as cost centers as nursing costs are bundled into a per diem rate instead of billed separately. As a result, all patients in a given care unit of the hospital are presumed to consume the same amount of nursing care resources. This costing and billing system creates a mismatch between resources consumption and billed charges. The objective of this paper is to (1) demonstrate current practice to estimate nursing costs, (2) classify nursing costs into direct and indirect costs in order to refine the existing approaches and (3) argue that a system of billing nursing costs separately better reflects the costs of patient care.

  20. Minimum Cost Estimation of a Baseline Survey for a Molecular Epidemiology Cohort Study: Collecting Participants in a Model Region in Japan

    PubMed Central

    Sawada, Norie; Iwasaki, Motoki; Ohashi, Kayo; Tsugane, Shoichiro

    2016-01-01

    Background Some recent molecular epidemiology studies of the effects of genetic and environmental factors on human health have required the enrollment of more than 100 000 participants and the involvement of regional study offices across the country. Although regional study office investigators play a critical role in these studies, including the acquisition of funds, this role is rarely discussed. Methods We first differentiated the functions of the regional and central study offices. We then investigated the minimum number of items required and approximate cost of a molecular epidemiology study enrolling 7400 participants from a model region with a population of 100 000 for a 4-year baseline survey using a standard protocol developed based on the protocol of Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation. Results The functions of the regional study office were identified, and individual expenses were itemized. The total cost of the 4-year baseline survey was 153 million yen, excluding consumption tax. Accounting difficulties in conducting the survey were clarified. Conclusions We investigated a standardized example of the tasks and total actual costs of a regional study office. Our approach is easy to utilize and will help improve the management of regional study offices in future molecular epidemiology studies. PMID:27001116

  1. A Cost Estimation Tool for Charter Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hayes, Cheryl D.; Keller, Eric

    2009-01-01

    To align their financing strategies and fundraising efforts with their fiscal needs, charter school leaders need to know how much funding they need and what that funding will support. This cost estimation tool offers a simple set of worksheets to help start-up charter school operators identify and estimate the range of costs and timing of…

  2. Demystifying the Cost Estimation Process

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Obi, Samuel C.

    2010-01-01

    In manufacturing today, nothing is more important than giving a customer a clear and straight-forward accounting of what their money has purchased. Many potentially promising return business orders are lost because of unclear, ambiguous, or improper billing. One of the best ways of resolving cost bargaining conflicts is by providing a…

  3. Cost estimating methods for advanced space systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cyr, Kelley

    1988-01-01

    Parametric cost estimating methods for space systems in the conceptual design phase are developed. The approach is to identify variables that drive cost such as weight, quantity, development culture, design inheritance, and time. The relationship between weight and cost is examined in detail. A theoretical model of cost is developed and tested statistically against a historical data base of major research and development programs. It is concluded that the technique presented is sound, but that it must be refined in order to produce acceptable cost estimates.

  4. Cross Service Fixed-Wing Cost Estimation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-05-17

    and Navy and used historical data from the costing databases maintained by each service: AFTOC for the Air Force and VAMOSC for the Navy.12 Using the...project was the procurement of data. We used the Air Force and Navy historical costing databases to collect all of our data. The databases had the same... historical data for each of the service weapon systems operational costs that can be used as a basis for future cost estimation stored in databases. It is

  5. An approach to software cost estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcgarry, F.; Page, J.; Card, D.; Rohleder, M.; Church, V.

    1984-01-01

    A general procedure for software cost estimation in any environment is outlined. The basic concepts of work and effort estimation are explained, some popular resource estimation models are reviewed, and the accuracy of source estimates is discussed. A software cost prediction procedure based on the experiences of the Software Engineering Laboratory in the flight dynamics area and incorporating management expertise, cost models, and historical data is described. The sources of information and relevant parameters available during each phase of the software life cycle are identified. The methodology suggested incorporates these elements into a customized management tool for software cost prediction. Detailed guidelines for estimation in the flight dynamics environment developed using this methodology are presented.

  6. Statistical methods of estimating mining costs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Long, K.R.

    2011-01-01

    Until it was defunded in 1995, the U.S. Bureau of Mines maintained a Cost Estimating System (CES) for prefeasibility-type economic evaluations of mineral deposits and estimating costs at producing and non-producing mines. This system had a significant role in mineral resource assessments to estimate costs of developing and operating known mineral deposits and predicted undiscovered deposits. For legal reasons, the U.S. Geological Survey cannot update and maintain CES. Instead, statistical tools are under development to estimate mining costs from basic properties of mineral deposits such as tonnage, grade, mineralogy, depth, strip ratio, distance from infrastructure, rock strength, and work index. The first step was to reestimate "Taylor's Rule" which relates operating rate to available ore tonnage. The second step was to estimate statistical models of capital and operating costs for open pit porphyry copper mines with flotation concentrators. For a sample of 27 proposed porphyry copper projects, capital costs can be estimated from three variables: mineral processing rate, strip ratio, and distance from nearest railroad before mine construction began. Of all the variables tested, operating costs were found to be significantly correlated only with strip ratio.

  7. ADP (Automated Data Processing) cost estimating heuristics

    SciTech Connect

    Sadlowe, A.R.; Arrowood, L.F.; Jones, K.A.; Emrich, M.L.; Watson, B.D.

    1987-09-11

    Artificial Intelligence, in particular expert systems methodologies, is being applied to the US Navy's Automated Data Processing estimating tasks. Skilled Navy project leaders are nearing retirement; replacements may not yet possess the many years of experience required to make accurate decisions regarding time, cost, equipment, and personnel needs. The potential departure of expertise resulted in the development of a system to capture organizational expertise. The prototype allows inexperienced project leaders to interactively generate cost estimates. 5 refs.

  8. Cost estimating methods for advanced space systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cyr, Kelley

    1994-01-01

    NASA is responsible for developing much of the nation's future space technology. Cost estimates for new programs are required early in the planning process so that decisions can be made accurately. Because of the long lead times required to develop space hardware, the cost estimates are frequently required 10 to 15 years before the program delivers hardware. The system design in conceptual phases of a program is usually only vaguely defined and the technology used is so often state-of-the-art or beyond. These factors combine to make cost estimating for conceptual programs very challenging. This paper describes an effort to develop parametric cost estimating methods for space systems in the conceptual design phase. The approach is to identify variables that drive cost such as weight, quantity, development culture, design inheritance and time. The nature of the relationships between the driver variables and cost will be discussed. In particular, the relationship between weight and cost will be examined in detail. A theoretical model of cost will be developed and tested statistically against a historical database of major research and development projects.

  9. COST ESTIMATING EQUATIONS FOR BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper describes the development of an interactive internet-based cost-estimating tool for commonly used urban storm runoff best management practices (BMP), including: retention and detention ponds, grassed swales, and constructed wetlands. The paper presents the cost data, c...

  10. Decommissioning Cost Estimating -The ''Price'' Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Manning, R.; Gilmour, J.

    2002-02-26

    Over the past 9 years UKAEA has developed a formalized approach to decommissioning cost estimating. The estimating methodology and computer-based application are known collectively as the PRICE system. At the heart of the system is a database (the knowledge base) which holds resource demand data on a comprehensive range of decommissioning activities. This data is used in conjunction with project specific information (the quantities of specific components) to produce decommissioning cost estimates. PRICE is a dynamic cost-estimating tool, which can satisfy both strategic planning and project management needs. With a relatively limited analysis a basic PRICE estimate can be produced and used for the purposes of strategic planning. This same estimate can be enhanced and improved, primarily by the improvement of detail, to support sanction expenditure proposals, and also as a tender assessment and project management tool. The paper will: describe the principles of the PRICE estimating system; report on the experiences of applying the system to a wide range of projects from contaminated car parks to nuclear reactors; provide information on the performance of the system in relation to historic estimates, tender bids, and outturn costs.

  11. Cost Estimating Cases: Educational Tools for Cost Analysts

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1993-09-01

    only appropriate documentation should be provided. In other words, students should not submit all of the documentation possible using ACEIT , only that...case was their lack of understanding of the ACEIT software used to conduct the estimate. Specifically, many students misinterpreted the cost...estimating relationships (CERs) embedded in the 49 software. Additionally, few of the students were able to properly organize the ACEIT documentation output

  12. Support to LANL: Cost estimation. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-10-04

    This report summarizes the activities and progress by ICF Kaiser Engineers conducted on behalf of Los Alamos National Laboratories (LANL) for the US Department of Energy, Office of Waste Management (EM-33) in the area of improving methods for Cost Estimation. This work was conducted between October 1, 1992 and September 30, 1993. ICF Kaiser Engineers supported LANL in providing the Office of Waste Management with planning and document preparation services for a Cost and Schedule Estimating Guide (Guide). The intent of the Guide was to use Activity-Based Cost (ABC) estimation as a basic method in preparing cost estimates for DOE planning and budgeting documents, including Activity Data Sheets (ADSs), which form the basis for the Five Year Plan document. Prior to the initiation of the present contract with LANL, ICF Kaiser Engineers was tasked to initiate planning efforts directed toward a Guide. This work, accomplished from June to September, 1992, included visits to eight DOE field offices and consultation with DOE Headquarters staff to determine the need for a Guide, the desired contents of a Guide, and the types of ABC estimation methods and documentation requirements that would be compatible with current or potential practices and expertise in existence at DOE field offices and their contractors.

  13. Cost estimating procedure for unmanned satellites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greer, H.; Campbell, H. G.

    1980-11-01

    Historical costs from 11 unmanned satellite programs were analyzed. From these data, total satellite cost estimating relationships (CERs) were developed for use during preliminary design studies. A time-related factor, which it is believed accounts for differences in technology, was observed in the data. Stratification of the data by type of payload was also found to be necessary. Cost differences that stem from production quantity variations were accounted for by adjustment factors developed from standard learning curve theory. An example to illustrate use of the CERs is provided.

  14. PACE 2: Pricing and Cost Estimating Handbook

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stewart, R. D.; Shepherd, T.

    1977-01-01

    An automatic data processing system to be used for the preparation of industrial engineering type manhour and material cost estimates has been established. This computer system has evolved into a highly versatile and highly flexible tool which significantly reduces computation time, eliminates computational errors, and reduces typing and reproduction time for estimators and pricers since all mathematical and clerical functions are automatic once basic inputs are derived.

  15. Deep space network software cost estimation model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tausworthe, R. C.

    1981-01-01

    A parametric software cost estimation model prepared for Jet PRopulsion Laboratory (JPL) Deep Space Network (DSN) Data System implementation tasks is described. The resource estimation mdel modifies and combines a number of existing models. The model calibrates the task magnitude and difficulty, development environment, and software technology effects through prompted responses to a set of approximately 50 questions. Parameters in the model are adjusted to fit JPL software life-cycle statistics.

  16. Cost estimate of initial SSC experimental equipment

    SciTech Connect

    1986-06-01

    The cost of the initial detector complement at recently constructed colliding beam facilities (or at those under construction) has been a significant fraction of the cost of the accelerator complex. Because of the complexity of large modern-day detectors, the time-scale for their design and construction is comparable to the time-scale needed for accelerator design and construction. For these reasons it is appropriate to estimate the cost of the anticipated detector complement in parallel with the cost estimates of the collider itself. The fundamental difficulty with this procedure is that, whereas a firm conceptual design of the collider does exist, comparable information is unavailable for the detectors. Traditionally, these have been built by the high energy physics user community according to their perception of the key scientific problems that need to be addressed. The role of the accelerator laboratory in that process has involved technical and managerial coordination and the allocation of running time and local facilities among the proposed experiments. It seems proper that the basic spirit of experimentation reflecting the scientific judgment of the community should be preserved at the SSC. Furthermore, the formal process of initiation of detector proposals can only start once the SSC has been approved as a construction project and a formal laboratory administration put in place. Thus an ad hoc mechanism had to be created to estimate the range of potential detector needs, potential detector costs, and associated computing equipment.

  17. PROCEDURE FOR ESTIMATING PERMANENT TOTAL ENCLOSURE COSTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The paper discusses a procedure for estimating permanent total enclosure (PTE) costs. (NOTE: Industries that use add-on control devices must adequately capture emissions before delivering them to the control device. One way to capture emissions is to use PTEs, enclosures that mee...

  18. Hydrogen from coal cost estimation guidebook

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Billings, R. E.

    1981-01-01

    In an effort to establish baseline information whereby specific projects can be evaluated, a current set of parameters which are typical of coal gasification applications was developed. Using these parameters a computer model allows researchers to interrelate cost components in a sensitivity analysis. The results make possible an approximate estimation of hydrogen energy economics from coal, under a variety of circumstances.

  19. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles unique cost estimating requirements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malone, P.; Apgar, H.; Stukes, S.; Sterk, S.

    Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), also referred to as drones, are aerial platforms that fly without a human pilot onboard. UAVs are controlled autonomously by a computer in the vehicle or under the remote control of a pilot stationed at a fixed ground location. There are a wide variety of drone shapes, sizes, configurations, complexities, and characteristics. Use of these devices by the Department of Defense (DoD), NASA, civil and commercial organizations continues to grow. UAVs are commonly used for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR). They are also use for combat operations, and civil applications, such as firefighting, non-military security work, surveillance of infrastructure (e.g. pipelines, power lines and country borders). UAVs are often preferred for missions that require sustained persistence (over 4 hours in duration), or are “ too dangerous, dull or dirty” for manned aircraft. Moreover, they can offer significant acquisition and operations cost savings over traditional manned aircraft. Because of these unique characteristics and missions, UAV estimates require some unique estimating methods. This paper describes a framework for estimating UAV systems total ownership cost including hardware components, software design, and operations. The challenge of collecting data, testing the sensitivities of cost drivers, and creating cost estimating relationships (CERs) for each key work breakdown structure (WBS) element is discussed. The autonomous operation of UAVs is especially challenging from a software perspective.

  20. Estimating Teacher Turnover Costs: A Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levy, Abigail Jurist; Joy, Lois; Ellis, Pamela; Jablonski, Erica; Karelitz, Tzur M.

    2012-01-01

    High teacher turnover in large U.S. cities is a critical issue for schools and districts, and the students they serve; but surprisingly little work has been done to develop methodologies and standards that districts and schools can use to make reliable estimates of turnover costs. Even less is known about how to detect variations in turnover costs…

  1. Deep space network software cost estimation model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tausworthe, R. C.

    1981-01-01

    A parametric software cost estimation model prepared for Deep Space Network (DSN) Data Systems implementation tasks is presented. The resource estimation model incorporates principles and data from a number of existing models. The model calibrates task magnitude and difficulty, development environment, and software technology effects through prompted responses to a set of approximately 50 questions. Parameters in the model are adjusted to fit DSN software life cycle statistics. The estimation model output scales a standard DSN Work Breakdown Structure skeleton, which is then input into a PERT/CPM system, producing a detailed schedule and resource budget for the project being planned.

  2. Software Estimates Costs of Testing Rocket Engines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, C. L.

    2003-01-01

    Simulation-Based Cost Model (SiCM), a discrete event simulation developed in Extend , simulates pertinent aspects of the testing of rocket propulsion test articles for the purpose of estimating the costs of such testing during time intervals specified by its users. A user enters input data for control of simulations; information on the nature of, and activity in, a given testing project; and information on resources. Simulation objects are created on the basis of this input. Costs of the engineering-design, construction, and testing phases of a given project are estimated from numbers and labor rates of engineers and technicians employed in each phase, the duration of each phase; costs of materials used in each phase; and, for the testing phase, the rate of maintenance of the testing facility. The three main outputs of SiCM are (1) a curve, updated at each iteration of the simulation, that shows overall expenditures vs. time during the interval specified by the user; (2) a histogram of the total costs from all iterations of the simulation; and (3) table displaying means and variances of cumulative costs for each phase from all iterations. Other outputs include spending curves for each phase.

  3. Software Estimates Costs of Testing Rocket Engines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Simulation-Based Cost Model (SiCM) is a computer program that simulates pertinent aspects of the testing of rocket engines for the purpose of estimating the costs of such testing during time intervals specified by its users. A user enters input data for control of simulations; information on the nature of, and activity in, a given testing project; and information on resources. Simulation objects are created on the basis of this input. Costs of the engineering-design, construction, and testing phases of a given project are estimated from numbers and labor rates of engineers and technicians employed in each phase, the duration of each phase; costs of materials used in each phase; and, for the testing phase, the rate of maintenance of the testing facility. The three main outputs of SiCM are (1) a curve, updated at each iteration of the simulation, that shows overall expenditures vs. time during the interval specified by the user; (2) a histogram of the total costs from all iterations of the simulation; and (3) table displaying means and variances of cumulative costs for each phase from all iterations. Other outputs include spending curves for each phase.

  4. Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation.

    PubMed

    Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David L; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

    2013-01-03

    For more than a decade, the target of keeping global warming below 2 °C has been a key focus of the international climate debate. In response, the scientific community has published a number of scenario studies that estimate the costs of achieving such a target. Producing these estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well known, but poorly quantified, uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on the one hand, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other hand, has spent years improving its understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases. This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty in the cost of mitigation scenarios but has been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in only a rudimentary manner, that is, for equilibrium conditions. Here we bridge this gap between the two research communities by generating distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific values, taking into account uncertainties in four factors: geophysical, technological, social and political. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by geophysical uncertainties, social factors influencing future energy demand and, lastly, technological uncertainties surrounding the availability of greenhouse gas mitigation options. Our information on temperature risk and mitigation costs provides crucial information for policy-making, because it clarifies the relative importance of mitigation costs, energy demand and the timing of global action in reducing the risk of exceeding a global temperature increase of 2 °C, or other limits such as 3 °C or 1.5

  5. Estimating the costs of landslide damage in the United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fleming, Robert W.; Taylor, Fred A.

    1980-01-01

    Landslide damages are one of the most costly natural disasters in the United States. A recent estimate of the total annual cost of landslide damage is in excess of $1 billion {Schuster, 1978}. The damages can be significantly reduced, however, through the combined action of technical experts, government, and the public. Before they can be expected to take action, local governments need to have an appreciation of costs of damage in their areas of responsibility and of the reductions in losses that can be achieved. Where studies of cost of landslide damages have been conducted, it is apparent that {1} costs to the public and private sectors of our economy due to landslide damage are much larger than anticipated; {2} taxpayers and public officials generally are unaware of the magnitude of the cost, owing perhaps to the lack of any centralization of data; and {3} incomplete records and unavailability of records result in lower reported costs than actually were incurred. The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a method to estimate the cost of landslide damages in regional and local areas and has applied the method in three urban areas and one rural area. Costs are for different periods and are unadjusted for inflation; therefore, strict comparisons of data from different years should be avoided. Estimates of the average annual cost of landslide damage for the urban areas studied are $5,900,000 in the San Francisco Bay area; $4,000,000 in Allegheny County, Pa.; and $5,170,000 in Hamilton County, Ohio. Adjusting these figures for the population of each area, the annual cost of damages per capita are $1.30 in the nine-county San Francisco Bay region; $2.50 in Allegheny County, Pa.; and $5.80 in Hamilton County, Ohio. On the basis of data from other sources, the estimated annual damages on a per capita basis for the City of Los Angeles, Calif., are about $1.60. If the costs were available for the damages from landslides in Los Angeles in 1977-78 and 1979-80, the annual per

  6. An Evaluation of Software Cost Estimating Models.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-06-01

    EVALUATION OF SOFTWARE COST ESTIMATING Sep 73- Oct 79 MODELS. R14- --. R IOTNME 7. AUTHOR (.) * ce.4 **CT OR GRANT NUMBER(C.’ * ~ Robert Thibodeau K 1 F30602...review of the draft DCP begins, the program can be terminated with the approval of the highest command level which authorized it. Once DSARC review begins...concert with many other elements. Initially, we might speak of the navigation subsystem and its functions. Later, we would describe the alignment element

  7. Estimating the social costs of nitrogen pollution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gourevitch, J.; Keeler, B.; Polasky, S.

    2014-12-01

    Agricultural expansion can degrade water quality and related ecosystem services through increased export of nutrients. Such damages to water quality can negatively affect recreation, property values, and human health. While the relationship between agricultural production and nitrogen export is well-studied, the economic costs of nitrogen loss are less well understood. We present a comprehensive assessment of the full costs associated with nitrate pollution from agricultural sources in Minnesota. We found that the most significant economic costs are likely from groundwater contamination of nitrate in public and private wells. For example, we estimated that loss of grassland to corn cultivation in Minnesota between 2007 and 2012 is expected to increase the future number of domestic wells exceeding nitrate concentrations of 10 ppm by 31%. This increase in contamination is estimated to cost well owners $1.4 to 19 million (present values over a 20 year horizon) through remediation, avoidance, and replacement. Our findings demonstrate linkages between changes in land use, water quality, and human well-being.

  8. 48 CFR 252.215-7002 - Cost estimating system requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... historical costs, and other analyses used to generate cost estimates. (b) General. The Contractor shall... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Cost estimating system... of Provisions And Clauses 252.215-7002 Cost estimating system requirements. As prescribed in...

  9. Statistical Cost Estimation in Higher Education: Some Alternatives.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brinkman, Paul T.; Niwa, Shelley

    Recent developments in econometrics that are relevant to the task of estimating costs in higher education are reviewed. The relative effectiveness of alternative statistical procedures for estimating costs are also tested. Statistical cost estimation involves three basic parts: a model, a data set, and an estimation procedure. Actual data are used…

  10. Estimated generic prices of cancer medicines deemed cost-ineffective in England: a cost estimation analysis

    PubMed Central

    Hill, Andrew; Redd, Christopher; Gotham, Dzintars; Erbacher, Isabelle; Meldrum, Jonathan; Harada, Ryo

    2017-01-01

    Objectives The aim of this study was to estimate lowest possible treatment costs for four novel cancer drugs, hypothesising that generic manufacturing could significantly reduce treatment costs. Setting This research was carried out in a non-clinical research setting using secondary data. Participants There were no human participants in the study. Four drugs were selected for the study: bortezomib, dasatinib, everolimus and gefitinib. These medications were selected according to their clinical importance, novel pharmaceutical actions and the availability of generic price data. Primary and secondary outcome measures Target costs for treatment were to be generated for each indication for each treatment. The primary outcome measure was the target cost according to a production cost calculation algorithm. The secondary outcome measure was the target cost as the lowest available generic price; this was necessary where export data were not available to generate an estimate from our cost calculation algorithm. Other outcomes included patent expiry dates and total eligible treatment populations. Results Target prices were £411 per cycle for bortezomib, £9 per month for dasatinib, £852 per month for everolimus and £10 per month for gefitinib. Compared with current list prices in England, these target prices would represent reductions of 74–99.6%. Patent expiry dates were bortezomib 2014–22, dasatinib 2020–26, everolimus 2019–25 and gefitinib 2017. The total global eligible treatment population in 1 year is 769 736. Conclusions Our findings demonstrate that affordable drug treatment costs are possible for novel cancer drugs, suggesting that new therapeutic options can be made available to patients and doctors worldwide. Assessing treatment cost estimations alongside cost-effectiveness evaluations is an important area of future research. PMID:28110283

  11. Estimating the extra cost of living with disability in Vietnam.

    PubMed

    Minh, Hoang Van; Giang, Kim Bao; Liem, Nguyen Thanh; Palmer, Michael; Thao, Nguyen Phuong; Duong, Le Bach

    2015-01-01

    Disability is shown to be both a cause and a consequence of poverty. However, relatively little research has investigated the economic cost of living with a disability. This study reports the results of a study on the extra cost of living with disability in Vietnam in 2011. The study was carried out in eight cities/provinces in Vietnam, including Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh cities (two major metropolitan in Vietnam) and six provinces from each of the six socio-economic regions in Vietnam. Costs are estimated using the standard of living approach whereby the difference in incomes between people with disability and those without disability for a given standard of living serves as a proxy for the cost of living with disability. The extra cost of living with disability in Vietnam accounted for about 8.8-9.5% of annual household income, or valued about US$200-218. Communication difficulty was shown to result in highest additional cost of living with disability and self-care difficulty was shown to lead to the lowest levels of extra of living cost. The extra cost of living with disability increased as people had more severe impairment. Interventions to promote the economic security of livelihood for people with disabilities are needed.

  12. ICPP tank farm closure study. Volume 3: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

    SciTech Connect

    1998-02-01

    This volume contains information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the six options described in Volume 1, Section 2: Option 1 -- Total removal clean closure; No subsequent use; Option 2 -- Risk-based clean closure; LLW fill; Option 3 -- Risk-based clean closure; CERCLA fill; Option 4 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; LLW fill; Option 5 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; CERCLA fill; and Option 6 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; Clean fill. This volume is divided into two portions. The first portion contains the cost and planning schedule estimates while the second portion contains life-cycle costs and yearly cash flow information for each option.

  13. The regional costs and benefits of acid rain control

    SciTech Connect

    Berkman, M.P.

    1991-01-01

    Congress recently enacted acid rain control legislation as part of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments following a decade-long debate among disparate regional interests. Although Congress succeeded in drafting a law acceptable to all regions, the regional costs and benefits of the legislation remain uncertain. The research presented here attempts to estimate the regional costs and benefits and the economic impacts of acid rain controls. These estimates are made using a modeling system composed of econometric, linear programming and input-output models. The econometric and linear programming components describe markets for electricity and coal. The outputs of these components including capital investment, electricity demand, and coal production are taken as exogenous inputs by a multiregional input-output model. The input-output model produces estimates of changes in final demand, gross output, and employment. The utility linear programming model also predicts sulfur dioxide emissions (an acid-rain precursor). According to model simulations, the costs of acid rain control exceed the benefits for many regions including several regions customarily thought to be the major beneficiaries of acid rain control such as New England.

  14. Preparing Rapid, Accurate Construction Cost Estimates with a Personal Computer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gerstel, Sanford M.

    1986-01-01

    An inexpensive and rapid method for preparing accurate cost estimates of construction projects in a university setting, using a personal computer, purchased software, and one estimator, is described. The case against defined estimates, the rapid estimating system, and adjusting standard unit costs are discussed. (MLW)

  15. A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Foreman, Veronica L.; Le Moigne, Jacqueline; de Weck, Oliver L.

    2016-01-01

    Satellite constellations and Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) architectures offer unique benefits to Earth observation scientists and unique challenges to cost estimators. The Cost and Risk (CR) module of the Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) being developed by NASA Goddard seeks to address some of these challenges by providing a new approach to cost modeling, which aggregates existing Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) from respected sources, cost estimating best practices, and data from existing and proposed satellite designs. Cost estimation through this tool is approached from two perspectives: parametric cost estimating relationships and analogous cost estimation techniques. The dual approach utilized within the TAT-C CR module is intended to address prevailing concerns regarding early design stage cost estimates, and offer increased transparency and fidelity by offering two preliminary perspectives on mission cost. This work outlines the existing cost model, details assumptions built into the model, and explains what measures have been taken to address the particular challenges of constellation cost estimating. The risk estimation portion of the TAT-C CR module is still in development and will be presented in future work. The cost estimate produced by the CR module is not intended to be an exact mission valuation, but rather a comparative tool to assist in the exploration of the constellation design tradespace. Previous work has noted that estimating the cost of satellite constellations is difficult given that no comprehensive model for constellation cost estimation has yet been developed, and as such, quantitative assessment of multiple spacecraft missions has many remaining areas of uncertainty. By incorporating well-established CERs with preliminary approaches to approaching these uncertainties, the CR module offers more complete approach to constellation costing than has previously been available to mission architects or Earth

  16. Estimating archiving costs for engineering records

    SciTech Connect

    Stutz, R.A.; Lamartine, B.C.

    1997-02-01

    Information technology has completely changed the concept of record keeping for engineering projects -- the advent of digital records was a momentous discovery, as significant as the invention of the printing press. Digital records allowed huge amounts of information to be stored in a very small space and to be examined quickly. However, digital documents are much more vulnerable to the passage of time than printed documents because the media on which they are stored are easily affected by physical phenomena, such as magnetic fields, oxidation, material decay, and by various environmental factors that may erase the information. Even more important, digital information becomes obsolete because, even if future generations may be able to read it, they may not necessarily be able to interpret it. Engineering projects of all sizes are becoming more dependent on digital records. These records are created on computers used in design, estimating, construction management, and construction. The necessity for the accurate and accessible storage of these documents, generated by computer software systems, is increasing for a number of reasons including legal and environment issues. This paper will discuss media life considerations and life cycle costs associated with several methods of storing engineering records.

  17. Handbook for quick cost estimates. A method for developing quick approximate estimates of costs for generic actions for nuclear power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Ball, J.R.

    1986-04-01

    This document is a supplement to a ''Handbook for Cost Estimating'' (NUREG/CR-3971) and provides specific guidance for developing ''quick'' approximate estimates of the cost of implementing generic regulatory requirements for nuclear power plants. A method is presented for relating the known construction costs for new nuclear power plants (as contained in the Energy Economic Data Base) to the cost of performing similar work, on a back-fit basis, at existing plants. Cost factors are presented to account for variations in such important cost areas as construction labor productivity, engineering and quality assurance, replacement energy, reworking of existing features, and regional variations in the cost of materials and labor. Other cost categories addressed in this handbook include those for changes in plant operating personnel and plant documents, licensee costs, NRC costs, and costs for other government agencies. Data sheets, worksheets, and appropriate cost algorithms are included to guide the user through preparation of rough estimates. A sample estimate is prepared using the method and the estimating tools provided.

  18. AN OVERVIEW OF TOOL FOR RESPONSE ACTION COST ESTIMATING (TRACE)

    SciTech Connect

    FERRIES SR; KLINK KL; OSTAPKOWICZ B

    2012-01-30

    Tools and techniques that provide improved performance and reduced costs are important to government programs, particularly in current times. An opportunity for improvement was identified for preparation of cost estimates used to support the evaluation of response action alternatives. As a result, CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company has developed Tool for Response Action Cost Estimating (TRACE). TRACE is a multi-page Microsoft Excel{reg_sign} workbook developed to introduce efficiencies into the timely and consistent production of cost estimates for response action alternatives. This tool combines costs derived from extensive site-specific runs of commercially available remediation cost models with site-specific and estimator-researched and derived costs, providing the best estimating sources available. TRACE also provides for common quantity and key parameter links across multiple alternatives, maximizing ease of updating estimates and performing sensitivity analyses, and ensuring consistency.

  19. 28 CFR 100.16 - Cost estimate submission.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... evaluation of the estimated costs. The FBI reserves the right to request additional cost data from carriers... if, as determined by the FBI, all cost data reasonably available to the carrier are either submitted... explain the estimating process are required by the FBI and the carrier refuses to provide necessary...

  20. Closing the Credibility Gap in Construction Cost Estimating.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Picardi, E. Alfred

    The construction cost estimate, often expressed as an absolute cost, leads to misunderstanding between client, designers, and builders. If estimates are to be used as adequate cost indicators, their probabilistic nature must be recognized and they must be expressed not as absolute numbers but in terms of a number with some indication of the…

  1. 28 CFR 100.16 - Cost estimate submission.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... evaluation of the estimated costs. The FBI reserves the right to request additional cost data from carriers... if, as determined by the FBI, all cost data reasonably available to the carrier are either submitted... explain the estimating process are required by the FBI and the carrier refuses to provide necessary...

  2. 28 CFR 100.16 - Cost estimate submission.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... evaluation of the estimated costs. The FBI reserves the right to request additional cost data from carriers... if, as determined by the FBI, all cost data reasonably available to the carrier are either submitted... explain the estimating process are required by the FBI and the carrier refuses to provide necessary...

  3. 28 CFR 100.16 - Cost estimate submission.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... evaluation of the estimated costs. The FBI reserves the right to request additional cost data from carriers... if, as determined by the FBI, all cost data reasonably available to the carrier are either submitted... explain the estimating process are required by the FBI and the carrier refuses to provide necessary...

  4. 28 CFR 100.16 - Cost estimate submission.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... evaluation of the estimated costs. The FBI reserves the right to request additional cost data from carriers... if, as determined by the FBI, all cost data reasonably available to the carrier are either submitted... explain the estimating process are required by the FBI and the carrier refuses to provide necessary...

  5. On the Utility of National Datasets and Resource Cost Models for Estimating Faculty Instructional Costs in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morphew, Christopher; Baker, Bruce

    2007-01-01

    In this article, the authors present the results of a research study in which they used two national datasets to construct and examine a model that estimates relative faculty instructional costs for specific undergraduate degree programs and also identifies differences in these costs by region and institutional type. They conducted this research…

  6. Assuring Software Cost Estimates: Is it an Oxymoron?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hihn, Jarius; Tregre, Grant

    2013-01-01

    The software industry repeatedly observes cost growth of well over 100% even after decades of cost estimation research and well-known best practices, so "What's the problem?" In this paper we will provide an overview of the current state oj software cost estimation best practice. We then explore whether applying some of the methods used in software assurance might improve the quality of software cost estimates. This paper especially focuses on issues associated with model calibration, estimate review, and the development and documentation of estimates as part alan integrated plan.

  7. Airframe RDT&E Cost Estimating: A Justification for and Development of Unique Cost Estimating Relationships According to Aircraft Type.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-09-01

    T1I4 PAGO(ftWg, Dle& Bnt e 0 ’-Airframe RDT&E costs are invariably predicted by utilizing one general cost estimatin relationship (CER) regardless of...and in funding decisions demanding reliable , internally consistent estimates of absolute cost (10:1). Cost estimating capability is only as accurate as...pertaining to the RDT&E phase appear to be limited in their ability to accurately predict weapon system development costs. This thesis focuses on a

  8. Systems engineering and integration: Cost estimation and benefits analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dean, ED; Fridge, Ernie; Hamaker, Joe

    1990-01-01

    Space Transportation Avionics hardware and software cost has traditionally been estimated in Phase A and B using cost techniques which predict cost as a function of various cost predictive variables such as weight, lines of code, functions to be performed, quantities of test hardware, quantities of flight hardware, design and development heritage, complexity, etc. The output of such analyses has been life cycle costs, economic benefits and related data. The major objectives of Cost Estimation and Benefits analysis are twofold: (1) to play a role in the evaluation of potential new space transportation avionics technologies, and (2) to benefit from emerging technological innovations. Both aspects of cost estimation and technology are discussed here. The role of cost analysis in the evaluation of potential technologies should be one of offering additional quantitative and qualitative information to aid decision-making. The cost analyses process needs to be fully integrated into the design process in such a way that cost trades, optimizations and sensitivities are understood. Current hardware cost models tend to primarily use weights, functional specifications, quantities, design heritage and complexity as metrics to predict cost. Software models mostly use functionality, volume of code, heritage and complexity as cost descriptive variables. Basic research needs to be initiated to develop metrics more responsive to the trades which are required for future launch vehicle avionics systems. These would include cost estimating capabilities that are sensitive to technological innovations such as improved materials and fabrication processes, computer aided design and manufacturing, self checkout and many others. In addition to basic cost estimating improvements, the process must be sensitive to the fact that no cost estimate can be quoted without also quoting a confidence associated with the estimate. In order to achieve this, better cost risk evaluation techniques are

  9. Mars Rover/Sample Return - Phase A cost estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stancati, Michael L.; Spadoni, Daniel J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents a preliminary cost estimate for the design and development of the Mars Rover/Sample Return (MRSR) mission. The estimate was generated using a modeling tool specifically built to provide useful cost estimates from design parameters of the type and fidelity usually available during early phases of mission design. The model approach and its application to MRSR are described.

  10. Pros, Cons, and Alternatives to Weight Based Cost Estimating

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joyner, Claude R.; Lauriem, Jonathan R.; Levack, Daniel H.; Zapata, Edgar

    2011-01-01

    Many cost estimating tools use weight as a major parameter in projecting the cost. This is often combined with modifying factors such as complexity, technical maturity of design, environment of operation, etc. to increase the fidelity of the estimate. For a set of conceptual designs, all meeting the same requirements, increased weight can be a major driver in increased cost. However, once a design is fixed, increased weight generally decreases cost, while decreased weight generally increases cost - and the relationship is not linear. Alternative approaches to estimating cost without using weight (except perhaps for materials costs) have been attempted to try to produce a tool usable throughout the design process - from concept studies through development. This paper will address the pros and cons of using weight based models for cost estimating, using liquid rocket engines as the example. It will then examine approaches that minimize the impct of weight based cost estimating. The Rocket Engine- Cost Model (RECM) is an attribute based model developed internally by Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne for NASA. RECM will be presented primarily to show a successful method to use design and programmatic parameters instead of weight to estimate both design and development costs and production costs. An operations model developed by KSC, the Launch and Landing Effects Ground Operations model (LLEGO), will also be discussed.

  11. Estimating the cost of major ongoing cost plus hardware development programs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bush, J. C.

    1990-01-01

    Approaches are developed for forecasting the cost of major hardware development programs while these programs are in the design and development C/D phase. Three approaches are developed: a schedule assessment technique for bottom-line summary cost estimation, a detailed cost estimation approach, and an intermediate cost element analysis procedure. The schedule assessment technique was developed using historical cost/schedule performance data.

  12. Process-based Cost Estimation for Ramjet/Scramjet Engines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Singh, Brijendra; Torres, Felix; Nesman, Miles; Reynolds, John

    2003-01-01

    Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

  13. Adaptive arrival cost update for improving Moving Horizon Estimation performance.

    PubMed

    Sánchez, G; Murillo, M; Giovanini, L

    2017-03-01

    Moving horizon estimation is an efficient technique to estimate states and parameters of constrained dynamical systems. It relies on the solution of a finite horizon optimization problem to compute the estimates, providing a natural framework to handle bounds and constraints on estimates, noises and parameters. However, the approximation of the arrival cost and its updating mechanism are an active research topic. The arrival cost is very important because it provides a mean to incorporate information from previous measurements to the current estimates and it is difficult to estimate its true value. In this work, we exploit the features of adaptive estimation methods to update the parameters of the arrival cost. We show that, having a better approximation of the arrival cost, the size of the optimization problem can be significantly reduced guaranteeing the stability and convergence of the estimates. These properties are illustrated through simulation studies.

  14. Handbook for cost estimating. A method for developing estimates of costs for generic actions for nuclear power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Ball, J.R.; Cohen, S.; Ziegler, E.Z.

    1984-10-01

    This document provides overall guidance to assist the NRC in preparing the types of cost estimates required by the Regulatory Analysis Guidelines and to assist in the assignment of priorities in resolving generic safety issues. The Handbook presents an overall cost model that allows the cost analyst to develop a chronological series of activities needed to implement a specific regulatory requirement throughout all applicable commercial LWR power plants and to identify the significant cost elements for each activity. References to available cost data are provided along with rules of thumb and cost factors to assist in evaluating each cost element. A suitable code-of-accounts data base is presented to assist in organizing and aggregating costs. Rudimentary cost analysis methods are described to allow the analyst to produce a constant-dollar, lifetime cost for the requirement. A step-by-step example cost estimate is included to demonstrate the overall use of the Handbook.

  15. 40 CFR 261.142 - Cost estimate.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) SOLID WASTES (CONTINUED) IDENTIFICATION AND LISTING OF HAZARDOUS WASTE Financial Requirements for Management of Excluded Hazardous Secondary... hazardous waste, and the potential cost of closing the facility as a treatment, storage, and...

  16. Parametric Equations for Estimating Aircraft Airframe Costs

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1976-02-01

    the following cost elements: engineering, tooling , nonrecurring manufacturing labor, recurring manu- facturing labor, nonrecurring manufacturing... TOOLING 23 V. MANUFACTURING LABOR 27 VI. MANUFACTURING MATERIALS 31 VII. FLIGHT TEST 36 VIII. QUALITY CONTROL 38 IX. TOTAL COST 40 X. OTHER...man-hours are higher than they would be under normal conditions. In anticipating a high produc- tion rate a contractor may expend many more tooling

  17. How to estimate productivity costs in economic evaluations.

    PubMed

    Krol, Marieke; Brouwer, Werner

    2014-04-01

    Productivity costs are frequently omitted from economic evaluations, despite their often strong impact on cost-effectiveness outcomes. This neglect may be partly explained by the lack of standardization regarding the methodology of estimating productivity costs. This paper aims to contribute to standardization of productivity cost methodology by offering practical guidance on how to estimate productivity costs in economic evaluations. The paper discusses the identification, measurement and valuation of productivity losses. It is recommended to include not only productivity losses related to absenteeism from and reduced productivity at paid work, but also those related to unpaid work. Hence, it is recommended to use a measurement instrument including questions about both paid and unpaid productivity, such as the iMTA Productivity Cost Questionnaire (iPCQ) or the Valuation of Lost Productivity (VOLP). We indicate how to apply the friction cost and the human capital approach and give practical guidance on deriving final cost estimates.

  18. A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Foreman, Veronica L.; Le Moigne, Jacqueline; de Weck, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    Satellite constellations present unique capabilities and opportunities to Earth orbiting and near-Earth scientific and communications missions, but also present new challenges to cost estimators. An effective and adaptive cost model is essential to successful mission design and implementation, and as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM) become more common, cost estimating tools must become more representative of these types of designs. Existing cost models often focus on a single spacecraft and require extensive design knowledge to produce high fidelity estimates. Previous research has examined the limitations of existing cost practices as they pertain to the early stages of mission formulation, for both individual satellites and small satellite constellations. Recommendations have been made for how to improve the cost models for individual satellites one-at-a-time, but much of the complexity in constellation and DSM cost modeling arises from constellation systems level considerations that have not yet been examined. This paper constitutes a survey of the current state-of-theart in cost estimating techniques with recommendations for improvements to increase the fidelity of future constellation cost estimates. To enable our investigation, we have developed a cost estimating tool for constellation missions. The development of this tool has revealed three high-priority shortcomings within existing parametric cost estimating capabilities as they pertain to DSM architectures: design iteration, integration and test, and mission operations. Within this paper we offer illustrative examples of these discrepancies and make preliminary recommendations for addressing them. DSM and satellite constellation missions are shifting the paradigm of space-based remote sensing, showing promise in the realms of Earth science, planetary observation, and various heliophysical applications. To fully reap the benefits of DSM technology, accurate and relevant cost estimating capabilities

  19. A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Foreman, Veronica; Le Moigne, Jacqueline; de Weck, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    Satellite constellations present unique capabilities and opportunities to Earth orbiting and near-Earth scientific and communications missions, but also present new challenges to cost estimators. An effective and adaptive cost model is essential to successful mission design and implementation, and as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM) become more common, cost estimating tools must become more representative of these types of designs. Existing cost models often focus on a single spacecraft and require extensive design knowledge to produce high fidelity estimates. Previous research has examined the shortcomings of existing cost practices as they pertain to the early stages of mission formulation, for both individual satellites and small satellite constellations. Recommendations have been made for how to improve the cost models for individual satellites one-at-a-time, but much of the complexity in constellation and DSM cost modeling arises from constellation systems level considerations that have not yet been examined. This paper constitutes a survey of the current state-of-the-art in cost estimating techniques with recommendations for improvements to increase the fidelity of future constellation cost estimates. To enable our investigation, we have developed a cost estimating tool for constellation missions. The development of this tool has revealed three high-priority weaknesses within existing parametric cost estimating capabilities as they pertain to DSM architectures: design iteration, integration and test, and mission operations. Within this paper we offer illustrative examples of these discrepancies and make preliminary recommendations for addressing them. DSM and satellite constellation missions are shifting the paradigm of space-based remote sensing, showing promise in the realms of Earth science, planetary observation, and various heliophysical applications. To fully reap the benefits of DSM technology, accurate and relevant cost estimating capabilities

  20. Fuel Cost Estimation for Sumatra Grid System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liun, Edwaren

    2010-06-01

    Sumatra has a high growth rate electricity energy demand from the first decade in this century. At the medium of this decade the growth is 11% per annum. On the other side capability of Government of Indonesia cq. PLN authority is limited, while many and most old existing power plants will be retired. The electricity demand growth of Sumatra is increasing the fuel consumption for several next decades. Based on several cases by vary growth scenarios and economic parameters, it shown that some kinds of fossil fuel keep to be required until next several decades. Although Sumatra has abundant coal resource, however, the other fuel types such as fuel oil, diesel, gas and nuclear are needed. On the Base Scenario and discount rate of 10%, the Sumatra System will require 11.6 million tones of coal until 2030 producing 866 TWh with cost of US10558 million. Nuclear plants produce about 501 TWh or 32% by cost of US3.1 billion. On the High Scenario and discount rate 10%, the coal consumption becomes 486.6 million tones by fuel cost of US12.7 billion producing 1033 TWh electricity energy. Nuclear fuel cost required in this scenario is US7.06 billion. The other fuel in large amount consumed is natural gas for combined cycle plants by cost of US1.38 billion producing 11.7 TWh of electricity energy on the Base Scenario and discount rate of 10%. In the High Scenario and discount rate 10% coal plants take role in power generation in Sumatra producing about 866 TWh or 54% of electricity energy. Coal consumption will be the highest on the Base Scenario with discount rate of 12% producing 756 TWh and required cost of US17.1 billion. Nuclear plants will not applicable in this scenario due to its un-competitiveness. The fuel cost will depend on nuclear power role in Sumatra system. Fuel cost will increase correspond to the increasing of coal consumption on the case where nuclear power plants not appear.

  1. Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Delene, J.G.; Hudson, C.R. II.

    1990-03-01

    To make comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules must be applied when developing cost estimates. This document provides a uniform set of assumptions, ground rules, and requirements that can be used in developing cost estimates for advanced nuclear power technologies. 10 refs., 8 figs., 32 tabs.

  2. Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Hudson, C.R. II

    1986-07-01

    To make comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules must be applied when developing cost estimates. This document provides a uniform set of assumptions, ground rules, and requirements that can be used in developing cost estimates for advanced nuclear power technologies.

  3. Estimating Instantaneous Energetic Cost During Gait Adaptation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-08-31

    Energetic cost, in this context, refers to the input energy required to 23   power the cellular processes underlying the body’s movement. This energy is...entering the body is allowed to reach equilibrium with the rate at which cellular 57   processes are consuming it. By averaging over minutes of data

  4. Review of storage battery system cost estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, D.R.; Russell, J.A.

    1986-04-01

    Cost analyses for zinc bromine, sodium sulfur, and lead acid batteries were reviewed. Zinc bromine and sodium sulfur batteries were selected because of their advanced design nature and the high level of interest in these two technologies. Lead acid batteries were included to establish a baseline representative of a more mature technology.

  5. Retrofit FGD cost-estimating guidelines. Final report. [6 processes

    SciTech Connect

    Shattuck, D.M.; Ireland, P.A.; Keeth, R.J.; Mora, R.R.; Scheck, R.W.; Archambeault, J.A.; Rathbun, G.R.

    1984-10-01

    This report presents a method to estimate specific plant FGD retrofit costs. The basis of the estimate is a new plant's FGD system cost, as provided in EPRI's Economic Evaluation of FGD Systems CS-3342, or any other generalized cost estimate. The methodology adjusts the capital cost for the sulfur content of the coal, sulfur removal required, unit size, geographic location variables, and retrofit considerations. The methodology also allows the user to calculate first year operating and maintenance (O and M) costs based on site-specific variables. Finally, the report provides a means to adjust for remaining unit life in determining the levelized busbar cost. Levelized cost is presented in mills/kWh and $/t SO/sub 2/ removed.

  6. Regional fuzzy chain model for evapotranspiration estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Güçlü, Yavuz Selim; Subyani, Ali M.; Şen, Zekai

    2017-01-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the main hydrological cycle components that has extreme importance for water resources management and agriculture especially in arid and semi-arid regions. In this study, regional ET estimation models based on the fuzzy logic (FL) principles are suggested, where the first stage includes the ET calculation via Penman-Monteith equation, which produces reliable results. In the second phase, ET estimations are produced according to the conventional FL inference system model. In this paper, regional fuzzy model (RFM) and regional fuzzy chain model (RFCM) are proposed through the use of adjacent stations' data in order to fill the missing ones. The application of the two models produces reliable and satisfactory results for mountainous and sea region locations in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, but comparatively RFCM estimations have more accuracy. In general, the mean absolute percentage error is less than 10%, which is acceptable in practical applications.

  7. Conceptual framework for estimating the social cost of drug abuse.

    PubMed

    French, M T; Rachal, J V; Hubbard, R L

    1991-01-01

    Drug abuse imposes costs on individuals and society. Researchers have produced several studies on a subset of tangible costs of drug abuse and other illnesses, but key tangible costs sometimes have been overlooked and, even when recognized, rarely have been estimated. An assortment of intangible costs also have received very little research attention. This study outlines a comprehensive conceptual framework for estimating the social cost of drug abuse. We address both the tangible and intangible costs for the drug-abusing and non-drug-abusing population. Our conceptual framework is based on critical reviews of new and traditional methods for estimating the costs of illness and disease including cost-of-illness methods, averting behavior methods, and utility valuation techniques. We show how the proposed methods can be combined with existing data to estimate the total social cost of drug abuse. Using social cost estimates will enable policymakers to more accurately assess the total burden of drug abuse and related problems on society.

  8. Cost Estimation of Naval Ship Acquisition.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-12-01

    tradeoffs in the design effort. 2. Provide a base for cost/effectiveness review of per- formance specifications . 3. Provide information useful in the...development set- backs such as engineering and design specification changes and other items that are not identifiable at the time of design. Industrial...and recording the specific information that is of value to the analyst." [Ref. 3] There are two basic categories of data that must be col- lected

  9. Estimates of costs by DRG in Sydney teaching hospitals: an application of the Yale cost model.

    PubMed

    Palmer, G; Aisbett, C; Fetter, R; Winchester, L; Reid, B; Rigby, E

    1991-01-01

    The results are reported of a first round of costing by DRG in seven major teaching hospital sites in Sydney using the Yale cost model. These results, when compared between the hospitals and with values of relative costs by DRG from the United States, indicate that the cost modelling procedure has produced credible and potentially useful estimates of casemix costs. The rationale and underlying theory of cost modelling is explained, and the need for further work to improve the method of allocating costs to DRGs, and to improve the cost centre definitions currently used by the hospitals, is emphasised.

  10. Estimating Software-Development Costs With Greater Accuracy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baker, Dan; Hihn, Jairus; Lum, Karen

    2008-01-01

    COCOMOST is a computer program for use in estimating software development costs. The goal in the development of COCOMOST was to increase estimation accuracy in three ways: (1) develop a set of sensitivity software tools that return not only estimates of costs but also the estimation error; (2) using the sensitivity software tools, precisely define the quantities of data needed to adequately tune cost estimation models; and (3) build a repository of software-cost-estimation information that NASA managers can retrieve to improve the estimates of costs of developing software for their project. COCOMOST implements a methodology, called '2cee', in which a unique combination of well-known pre-existing data-mining and software-development- effort-estimation techniques are used to increase the accuracy of estimates. COCOMOST utilizes multiple models to analyze historical data pertaining to software-development projects and performs an exhaustive data-mining search over the space of model parameters to improve the performances of effort-estimation models. Thus, it is possible to both calibrate and generate estimates at the same time. COCOMOST is written in the C language for execution in the UNIX operating system.

  11. Estimating lifetime healthcare costs with morbidity data

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background In many developed countries, the economic crisis started in 2008 producing a serious contraction of the financial resources spent on healthcare. Identifying which individuals will require more resources and the moment in their lives these resources have to be allocated becomes essential. It is well known that a small number of individuals with complex healthcare needs consume a high percentage of health expenditures. Conversely, little is known on how morbidity evolves throughout life. The aim of this study is to introduce a longitudinal perspective to chronic disease management. Methods Data used relate to the population of the county of Baix Empordà in Catalonia for the period 2004–2007 (average population was N = 88,858). The database included individual information on morbidity, resource consumption, costs and activity records. The population was classified using the Clinical Risk Groups (CRG) model. Future morbidity evolution was simulated under different assumptions using a stationary Markov chain. We obtained morbidity patterns for the lifetime and the distribution function of the random variable lifetime costs. Individual information on acute episodes, chronic conditions and multimorbidity patterns were included in the model. Results The probability of having a specific health status in the future (healthy, acute process or different combinations of chronic illness) and the distribution function of healthcare costs for the individual lifetime were obtained for the sample population. The mean lifetime cost for women was €111,936, a third higher than for men, at €81,566 (all amounts calculated in 2007 Euros). Healthy life expectancy at birth for females was 46.99, lower than for males (50.22). Females also spent 28.41 years of life suffering from some type of chronic disease, a longer period than men (21.9). Conclusions Future morbidity and whole population costs can be reasonably predicted, combining stochastic microsimulation with a

  12. Fuzzy case based reasoning in sports facilities unit cost estimating

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zima, Krzysztof

    2016-06-01

    This article presents an example of estimating costs in the early phase of the project using fuzzy case-based reasoning. The fragment of database containing descriptions and unit cost of sports facilities was shown. The formulas used in Case Based Reasoning method were presented, too. The article presents similarity measurement using a few formulas, including fuzzy similarity. The outcome of cost calculations based on CBR method was presented as a fuzzy number of unit cost of construction work.

  13. The unit cost factors and calculation methods for decommissioning - Cost estimation of nuclear research facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Kwan-Seong Jeong; Dong-Gyu Lee; Chong-Hun Jung; Kune-Woo Lee

    2007-07-01

    Available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: The uncertainties of decommissioning costs increase high due to several conditions. Decommissioning cost estimation depends on the complexity of nuclear installations, its site-specific physical and radiological inventories. Therefore, the decommissioning costs of nuclear research facilities must be estimated in accordance with the detailed sub-tasks and resources by the tasks of decommissioning activities. By selecting the classified activities and resources, costs are calculated by the items and then the total costs of all decommissioning activities are reshuffled to match with its usage and objectives. And the decommissioning cost of nuclear research facilities is calculated by applying a unit cost factor method on which classification of decommissioning works fitted with the features and specifications of decommissioning objects and establishment of composition factors are based. Decommissioning costs of nuclear research facilities are composed of labor cost, equipment and materials cost. Of these three categorical costs, the calculation of labor costs are very important because decommissioning activities mainly depend on labor force. Labor costs in decommissioning activities are calculated on the basis of working time consumed in decommissioning objects and works. The working times are figured out of unit cost factors and work difficulty factors. Finally, labor costs are figured out by using these factors as parameters of calculation. The accuracy of decommissioning cost estimation results is much higher compared to the real decommissioning works. (authors)

  14. Estimating the Life Cycle Cost of Space Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jones, Harry W.

    2015-01-01

    A space system's Life Cycle Cost (LCC) includes design and development, launch and emplacement, and operations and maintenance. Each of these cost factors is usually estimated separately. NASA uses three different parametric models for the design and development cost of crewed space systems; the commercial PRICE-H space hardware cost model, the NASA-Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM), and the Advanced Missions Cost Model (AMCM). System mass is an important parameter in all three models. System mass also determines the launch and emplacement cost, which directly depends on the cost per kilogram to launch mass to Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The launch and emplacement cost is the cost to launch to LEO the system itself and also the rockets, propellant, and lander needed to emplace it. The ratio of the total launch mass to payload mass depends on the mission scenario and destination. The operations and maintenance costs include any material and spares provided, the ground control crew, and sustaining engineering. The Mission Operations Cost Model (MOCM) estimates these costs as a percentage of the system development cost per year.

  15. 48 CFR 252.215-7002 - Cost estimating system requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... the estimating methods and rationale used in developing cost estimates and budgets; (v) Provide for... management systems; and (4) Is subject to applicable financial control systems. Estimating system means the Contractor's policies, procedures, and practices for budgeting and planning controls, and...

  16. 16 CFR 305.5 - Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and energy efficiency rating, and of water use rate. 305.5... energy efficiency rating, and of water use rate. (a) Procedures for determining the estimated annual energy consumption, the estimated annual operating costs, the energy efficiency ratings, and the...

  17. A cost estimation model for high power FELs

    SciTech Connect

    Neil, G.R.

    1995-12-31

    A cost estimation model for scaling high-power free-electron lasers has been developed for estimating the impact of system-level design choices in scaling high-average-power superconducting-accelerator-based FELs. The model consists of a number of modules which develop subsystem costs and derive as an economic criterion the cost per kilojoule of light produced. The model does not include design engineering or development costs, but represents the 2nd through nth device. Presented in the paper is the relative sensitivity of designs to power and linac frequency while allowing the operating temperature of the superconducting cavities to optimize.

  18. Cost estimation of HVDC transmission system of Bangka's NPP candidates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liun, Edwaren; Suparman

    2014-09-01

    Regarding nuclear power plant development in Bangka Island, it can be estimated that produced power will be oversupply for the Bangka Island and needs to transmit to Sumatra or Java Island. The distance between the regions or islands causing considerable loss of power in transmission by alternating current, and a wide range of technical and economical issues. The objective of this paper addresses to economics analysis of direct current transmission system to overcome those technical problem. Direct current transmission has a stable characteristic, so that the power delivery from Bangka to Sumatra or Java in a large scale efficiently and reliably can be done. HVDC system costs depend on the power capacity applied to the system and length of the transmission line in addition to other variables that may be different.

  19. Improving The Discipline of Cost Estimation and Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Piland, William M.; Pine, David J.; Wilson, Delano M.

    2000-01-01

    The need to improve the quality and accuracy of cost estimates of proposed new aerospace systems has been widely recognized. The industry has done the best job of maintaining related capability with improvements in estimation methods and giving appropriate priority to the hiring and training of qualified analysts. Some parts of Government, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in particular, continue to need major improvements in this area. Recently, NASA recognized that its cost estimation and analysis capabilities had eroded to the point that the ability to provide timely, reliable estimates was impacting the confidence in planning many program activities. As a result, this year the Agency established a lead role for cost estimation and analysis. The Independent Program Assessment Office located at the Langley Research Center was given this responsibility. This paper presents the plans for the newly established role. Described is how the Independent Program Assessment Office, working with all NASA Centers, NASA Headquarters, other Government agencies, and industry, is focused on creating cost estimation and analysis as a professional discipline that will be recognized equally with the technical disciplines needed to design new space and aeronautics activities. Investments in selected, new analysis tools, creating advanced training opportunities for analysts, and developing career paths for future analysts engaged in the discipline are all elements of the plan. Plans also include increasing the human resources available to conduct independent cost analysis of Agency programs during their formulation, to improve near-term capability to conduct economic cost-benefit assessments, to support NASA management's decision process, and to provide cost analysis results emphasizing "full-cost" and "full-life cycle" considerations. The Agency cost analysis improvement plan has been approved for implementation starting this calendar year. Adequate financial

  20. Space Station Furnace Facility. Volume 3: Program cost estimate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1992-01-01

    The approach used to estimate costs for the Space Station Furnace Facility (SSFF) is based on a computer program developed internally at Teledyne Brown Engineering (TBE). The program produces time-phased estimates of cost elements for each hardware component, based on experience with similar components. Engineering estimates of the degree of similarity or difference between the current project and the historical data is then used to adjust the computer-produced cost estimate and to fit it to the current project Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). The SSFF Concept as presented at the Requirements Definition Review (RDR) was used as the base configuration for the cost estimate. This program incorporates data on costs of previous projects and the allocation of those costs to the components of one of three, time-phased, generic WBS's. Input consists of a list of similar components for which cost data exist, number of interfaces with their type and complexity, identification of the extent to which previous designs are applicable, and programmatic data concerning schedules and miscellaneous data (travel, off-site assignments). Output is program cost in labor hours and material dollars, for each component, broken down by generic WBS task and program schedule phase.

  1. COSTMODL: An automated software development cost estimation tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Roush, George B.

    1991-01-01

    The cost of developing computer software continues to consume an increasing portion of many organizations' total budgets, both in the public and private sector. As this trend develops, the capability to produce reliable estimates of the effort and schedule required to develop a candidate software product takes on increasing importance. The COSTMODL program was developed to provide an in-house capability to perform development cost estimates for NASA software projects. COSTMODL is an automated software development cost estimation tool which incorporates five cost estimation algorithms including the latest models for the Ada language and incrementally developed products. The principal characteristic which sets COSTMODL apart from other software cost estimation programs is its capacity to be completely customized to a particular environment. The estimation equations can be recalibrated to reflect the programmer productivity characteristics demonstrated by the user's organization, and the set of significant factors which effect software development costs can be customized to reflect any unique properties of the user's development environment. Careful use of a capability such as COSTMODL can significantly reduce the risk of cost overruns and failed projects.

  2. 48 CFR 9904.401 - Cost accounting standard-consistency in estimating, accumulating and reporting costs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 7 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Cost accounting standard-consistency in estimating, accumulating and reporting costs. 9904.401 Section 9904.401 Federal Acquisition Regulations System COST ACCOUNTING STANDARDS BOARD, OFFICE OF FEDERAL PROCUREMENT POLICY, OFFICE OF...

  3. 48 CFR 9904.401 - Cost accounting standard-consistency in estimating, accumulating and reporting costs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 7 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Cost accounting standard-consistency in estimating, accumulating and reporting costs. 9904.401 Section 9904.401 Federal Acquisition Regulations System COST ACCOUNTING STANDARDS BOARD, OFFICE OF FEDERAL PROCUREMENT POLICY, OFFICE OF...

  4. 48 CFR 9904.401 - Cost accounting standard-consistency in estimating, accumulating and reporting costs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Cost accounting standard-consistency in estimating, accumulating and reporting costs. 9904.401 Section 9904.401 Federal Acquisition Regulations System COST ACCOUNTING STANDARDS BOARD, OFFICE OF FEDERAL PROCUREMENT POLICY, OFFICE OF...

  5. 48 CFR 9904.401 - Cost accounting standard-consistency in estimating, accumulating and reporting costs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 7 2013-10-01 2012-10-01 true Cost accounting standard-consistency in estimating, accumulating and reporting costs. 9904.401 Section 9904.401 Federal Acquisition Regulations System COST ACCOUNTING STANDARDS BOARD, OFFICE OF FEDERAL PROCUREMENT POLICY, OFFICE OF...

  6. A Parametric Cost Model for Estimating Acquisition Costs of Conventional U.S. Navy Surface Ships.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1999-09-01

    techniques return cost estimating relationships able to predict average procurement cost from ship light displacement, ship overall length, ship ... propulsion shaft horsepower or number of propulsion engines. The formulated parametric cost model is approximate and appropriate only for rough order of

  7. Costing for the Future: Exploring Cost Estimation With Unmanned Autonomous Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-04-30

    Acquisition, Cranfield University Controlling Costs: The 6-3-5 Method—Case Studies at NAVSEA and NATO Bruce Nagy, President/CEO, Catalyst Technologies...Morgan Ames, Senior Advisor, Catalyst Technologies Costing for the Future: Exploring Cost Estimation With Unmanned Autonomous Systems Ricardo Valerdi

  8. Psychometrics for the Cost Conscious: Using Discriminant Analysis to Refine Estimates of Program Cost.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coffin, Raymond J.

    This presentation uses data from a long-term juvenile diversion counseling program to illustrate a sample method of estimating program cost. Several problems in using average cost figures are first presented. Then a method is described in which discriminant analysis can be used to refine cost comparisons. This makes it possible to produce…

  9. Commercial Crew Cost Estimating - A Look at Estimating Processes, Challenges and Lessons Learned

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Battle, Rick; Cole, Lance

    2015-01-01

    To support annual PPBE budgets and NASA HQ requests for cost information for commercial crew transportation to the International Space Station (ISS), the NASA ISS ACES team developed system development and per flight cost estimates for the potential providers for each annual PPBE submit from 2009-2014. This paper describes the cost estimating processes used, challenges and lessons learned to develop estimates for this key NASA project that diverted from the traditional procurement approach and used a new way of doing business

  10. Estimates of the national benefits and costs of improving ambient air quality

    SciTech Connect

    Brady, G.L.; Bower, B.T.; Lakhani, H.A.

    1983-04-01

    This paper examines the estimates of national benefits and national costs of ambient air quality improvement in the United States for the period 1970 to 1978. Analysis must be at the micro-level for both receptors of pollution and the dischargers of residuals. Section 2 discusses techniques for estimating the national benefits from improving ambient air quality. The literature on national benefits to health (mortality and morbidity) and non-health (avoiding damages to materials, plants, crops, etc.) is critically reviewed in this section. For the period 1970 to 1978, the value of these benefits ranged from about $5 billion to $51 billion, with a point estimate of about $22 billion. The national cost estimates by the Council on Environmental Quality, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and McGraw-Hill are provided in section 2. Cost estimates must include not only the end-of-pipe treatment measures, but also the alternatives: changes in product specification, product mix, processes, etc. These types of responses are not generally considered in estimates of national costs. For the period 1970 to 1978, estimates provided in section 3 of national costs of improving ambient air quality ranged from $8 to $9 billion in 1978 dollars. Section 4 concludes that the national benefits for improving ambient air quality exceed the national costs for the average and the high values of benefits, but not for the low estimates. Section 5 discusses the requirements for establishing a national regional computational framework for estimating national benefits and national costs. 49 references, 2 tables

  11. Econometric estimation of country-specific hospital costs.

    PubMed

    Adam, Taghreed; Evans, David B; Murray, Christopher JL

    2003-02-26

    Information on the unit cost of inpatient and outpatient care is an essential element for costing, budgeting and economic-evaluation exercises. Many countries lack reliable estimates, however. WHO has recently undertaken an extensive effort to collect and collate data on the unit cost of hospitals and health centres from as many countries as possible; so far, data have been assembled from 49 countries, for various years during the period 1973-2000. The database covers a total of 2173 country-years of observations. Large gaps remain, however, particularly for developing countries. Although the long-term solution is that all countries perform their own costing studies, the question arises whether it is possible to predict unit costs for different countries in a standardized way for short-term use. The purpose of the work described in this paper, a modelling exercise, was to use the data collected across countries to predict unit costs in countries for which data are not yet available, with the appropriate uncertainty intervals.The model presented here forms part of a series of models used to estimate unit costs for the WHO-CHOICE project. The methods and the results of the model, however, may be used to predict a number of different types of country-specific unit costs, depending on the purpose of the exercise. They may be used, for instance, to estimate the costs per bed-day at different capacity levels; the "hotel" component of cost per bed-day; or unit costs net of particular components such as drugs.In addition to reporting estimates for selected countries, the paper shows that unit costs of hospitals vary within countries, sometimes by an order of magnitude. Basing cost-effectiveness studies or budgeting exercises on the results of a study of a single facility, or even a small group of facilities, is likely to be misleading.

  12. Regional Bias of Satellite Precipitation Estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Modrick, T. M.; Georgakakos, K. P.; Spencer, C. R.

    2012-12-01

    Satellite-based estimates of precipitation have improved the spatial availability of precipitation data particularly for regions with limited gauge networks due to limited accessibility or infrastructure. Understanding the quality and reliability of satellite precipitation estimates is important, especially when the estimates are utilitized for real-time hydrologic forecasting and for fast-responding phenomena. In partnership with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the U.S. Agency of International Development (USAID) and the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Hydrologic Research Center has begun implementation of real-time flash flood warning systems for diverse regions around the world. As part of this effort, bias characteristics of satellite precipitation have been examined in these various regions, such includes portions of Southeastern Asia, Southeastern Europe, the Middle East, Central America, and the southern half of the African continent. The work has focused on the Global Hydro-Estimator (GHE) precipitation product from NOAA/NESDIS. These real-time systems utilize the GHE given low latency times of this product. This presentation focuses on the characterization of precipitation bias as compared to in-situ gauge records, and the regional variations or similarities. Additional analysis is currently underway considering regional bias for other satellite precipitation products (e.g., CMORPH) for comparison with the GHE results.

  13. Software cost estimation using class point metrics (CPM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghode, Aditi; Periyasamy, Kasilingam

    2011-12-01

    Estimating cost for the software project is one of the most important and crucial task to maintain the software reliability. Many cost estimation models have been reported till now, but most of them have significant drawbacks due to rapid changes in the technology. For example, Source Line Of Code (SLOC) can only be counted when the software construction is complete. Function Point (FP) metric is deficient in handling Object Oriented Technology, as it was designed for procedural languages such as COBOL. Since Object-Oriented Programming became a popular development practice, most of the software companies started applying the Unified Modeling Language (UML). The objective of this research is to develop a new cost estimation model with the application of class diagram for the software cost estimation.

  14. Software for Estimating Costs of Testing Rocket Engines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hines, Merion M.

    2002-01-01

    A high-level parametric mathematical model for estimating the costs of testing rocket engines and components at Stennis Space Center has been implemented as a Microsoft Excel program that generates multiple spreadsheets. The model and the program are both denoted, simply, the Cost Estimating Model (CEM). The inputs to the CEM are the parameters that describe particular tests, including test types (component or engine test), numbers and duration of tests, thrust levels, and other parameters. The CEM estimates anticipated total project costs for a specific test. Estimates are broken down into testing categories based on a work-breakdown structure and a cost-element structure. A notable historical assumption incorporated into the CEM is that total labor times depend mainly on thrust levels. As a result of a recent modification of the CEM to increase the accuracy of predicted labor times, the dependence of labor time on thrust level is now embodied in third- and fourth-order polynomials.

  15. Software for Estimating Costs of Testing Rocket Engines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hines, Merlon M.

    2004-01-01

    A high-level parametric mathematical model for estimating the costs of testing rocket engines and components at Stennis Space Center has been implemented as a Microsoft Excel program that generates multiple spreadsheets. The model and the program are both denoted, simply, the Cost Estimating Model (CEM). The inputs to the CEM are the parameters that describe particular tests, including test types (component or engine test), numbers and duration of tests, thrust levels, and other parameters. The CEM estimates anticipated total project costs for a specific test. Estimates are broken down into testing categories based on a work-breakdown structure and a cost-element structure. A notable historical assumption incorporated into the CEM is that total labor times depend mainly on thrust levels. As a result of a recent modification of the CEM to increase the accuracy of predicted labor times, the dependence of labor time on thrust level is now embodied in third- and fourth-order polynomials.

  16. Software for Estimating Costs of Testing Rocket Engines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hines, Merlon M.

    2003-01-01

    A high-level parametric mathematical model for estimating the costs of testing rocket engines and components at Stennis Space Center has been implemented as a Microsoft Excel program that generates multiple spreadsheets. The model and the program are both denoted, simply, the Cost Estimating Model (CEM). The inputs to the CEM are the parameters that describe particular tests, including test types (component or engine test), numbers and duration of tests, thrust levels, and other parameters. The CEM estimates anticipated total project costs for a specific test. Estimates are broken down into testing categories based on a work-breakdown structure and a cost-element structure. A notable historical assumption incorporated into the CEM is that total labor times depend mainly on thrust levels. As a result of a recent modification of the CEM to increase the accuracy of predicted labor times, the dependence of labor time on thrust level is now embodied in third- and fourth-order polynomials.

  17. The Acquisition Cost-Estimating Workforce. Census and Characteristics

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-01-01

    Abbreviations AAC Air Armament Center ACAT acquisition category ACEIT Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tools AF Air Force AFB Air Force Base AFCAA Air...3 3 4 Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tools ( ACEIT ) 0 1 12 6 Tecolotea training 0 0 10 5 Other 3 13 24 18 No training 18 4 29 18 Total 100 100...other sources, including AFIT, ACEIT ,9 or the contracting agency that employed them. The remain- ing 29 percent reported having received no training

  18. Estimating Costs for Development of Candidate Performance Evaluation Procedures.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Payne, David A.

    This paper contains cost unit tables and instructions for their use in estimating the total cost of evaluating a given instructional objective or group of objectives. Included is a list of analytical procedures to be followed in the development of any device to evaluate student performance, (e.g., a unit exam in child development or an attitude…

  19. Estimating design costs for first-of-a-kind projects

    SciTech Connect

    Banerjee, Bakul; /Fermilab

    2006-03-01

    Modern scientific facilities are often outcomes of projects that are first-of-a-kind, that is, minimal historical data are available for project costs and schedules. However, at Fermilab, there was an opportunity to execute two similar projects consecutively. In this paper, a comparative study of the design costs for these two projects is presented using earned value methodology. This study provides some insights into how to estimate the cost of a replicated project.

  20. Direct estimation of the cost effectiveness of tornado shelters.

    PubMed

    Simmons, Kevin M; Sutter, Daniel

    2006-08-01

    This article estimates the cost effectiveness of tornado shelters using the annual probability of a tornado and new data on fatalities per building struck by a tornado. This approach differs from recent estimates of the cost effectiveness of tornado shelters in Reference 1 that use historical casualties. Historical casualties combine both tornado risk and resident action. If residents of tornado-prone states take greater precautions, observed fatalities might not be much higher than in states with lower risk. Estimation using the tornado probability avoids this potential bias. Despite the very different method used, the estimates are 68 million US dollars in permanent homes and 6.0 million US dollars in mobile homes in Oklahoma using a 3% real discount rate, within about 10% of estimates based on historical fatalities. The findings suggest that shelters provide cost-effective protection for mobile homes in the most tornado-prone states but not for permanent homes.

  1. Improving the Discipline of Cost Estimation and Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Piland, William M.; Pine, David J.; Wilson, Delano M.

    2000-01-01

    The need to improve the quality and accuracy of cost estimates of proposed new aerospace systems has been widely recognized. The industry has done the best job of maintaining related capability with improvements in estimation methods and giving appropriate priority to the hiring and training of qualified analysts. Some parts of Government, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in particular, continue to need major improvements in this area. Recently, NASA recognized that its cost estimation and analysis capabilities had eroded to the point that the ability to provide timely, reliable estimates was impacting the confidence in planning man), program activities. As a result, this year the Agency established a lead role for cost estimation and analysis. The Independent Program Assessment Office located at the Langley Research Center was given this responsibility.

  2. Hydrogen Production Cost Estimate Using Biomass Gasification: Independent Review

    SciTech Connect

    Ruth, M.

    2011-10-01

    This independent review is the conclusion arrived at from data collection, document reviews, interviews and deliberation from December 2010 through April 2011 and the technical potential of Hydrogen Production Cost Estimate Using Biomass Gasification. The Panel reviewed the current H2A case (Version 2.12, Case 01D) for hydrogen production via biomass gasification and identified four principal components of hydrogen levelized cost: CapEx; feedstock costs; project financing structure; efficiency/hydrogen yield. The panel reexamined the assumptions around these components and arrived at new estimates and approaches that better reflect the current technology and business environments.

  3. Regional estimates of radiated seismic energy

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boatwright, J.; Choy, G.L.; Seekins, L.C.

    2002-01-01

    We revise the spectral technique for estimating radiated energy from recordings of large earthquakes at regional distances (?? 27.5 km from the source, we model the geometrical spreading of the regional wavefield as r-?? where???? = 0.5 for f ??? 0.2 Hz and ?? = 0.7 for f ??? 0.25 Hz. We fit the spectral falloff with distance using a frequency-dependent attenuation Q = 400(f/1.5)0.6, where Q = 400 for f ??? 1.5 Hz. There is little directivity apparent in the corrected velocity spectra: the velocity spectra observed to the northwest along strike are amplified by a factor of 2.5 from 0.3 to 1.0 Hz and those to the southeast are amplified by a factor of 1.6 from 0.3 to 0.7 Hz. We group the stations in NEHRP site classes, using average 1-D velocity structures to estimate site amplification as a function of frequency and assuming 0.40 ??? ?? ??? 0.55 sec for the near-surface attenuation. We increase the amplification of the soft-soil sites from 0.1 to 1.0 Hz by a factor that reaches 1.7 at 0.3 Hz because they are more strongly amplified than the NEHRP-D velocity structure predicts. We combine the 65 single-station estimates of radiated energy using an equal-azimuth weighting scheme that compensates for station distribution and incorporates the observed directivity, yielding a regional estimate of Es = 3.4 ?? 0.7 ?? 1022 dyne cm. This regional estimate of radiated energy corresponds closely to the teleseismic estimate of Es = 3.2 ?? 1022 dyne cm.

  4. Cost estimation for unmanned lunar and planetary programs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunkin, J. H.; Pekar, P. R.; Spadoni, D. J.; Stone, C. A.

    1973-01-01

    A basic model is presented for estimating the cost of unmanned lunar and planetary programs. Cost data were collected and analyzed for eight lunar and planetary programs. Total cost was separated into the following components: labor, overhead, materials, and technical support. The study determined that direct labor cost of unmanned lunar and planetary programs comprises 30 percent of the total program cost. Twelve program categories were defined for modeling: six spacecraft subsystem categories (science, structure, propulsion, electrical power, communications, and guidance and integration, test and quality assurance, launch and flight operations, ground equipment, systems analysis and engineering, and program management). An analysis showed that on a percentage basis, direct labor cost and direct labor manhours compare on a one-to-one ratio. Therefore, direct labor hours is used as the parameter for predicting cost, with the advantage of eliminating the effect of inflation on the analysis.

  5. Cost Estimation in Engineer-to-Order Manufacturing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hooshmand, Yousef; Köhler, Peter; Korff-Krumm, Andrea

    2016-02-01

    In Engineer-to-Order (ETO) manufacturing the price of products must be defined during early stages of product design and during the bidding process, thus an overestimation of product development (PD) costs may lead to the loss of orders and an underestimation causes a profit loss. What many ETO systems have in common is that the products have to be developed based on different customer requirements so that each order usually results in a new variant. Furthermore, many customer requirement change-requests may arise in different phases of the PD, which is to be considered properly. Thus it is utmost important for ETO systems to have an accurate cost estimation in first stages of the product design and to be able to determine the cost of customer requirement changes in different phases of PD. This paper aims to present a cost estimation methodology as well as a cost estimation model, which estimate the cost of products by relative comparison of the attributes of new product variants with the attributes of standard product variants. In addition, as a necessity in ETO manufacturing, the cost calculation of customer requirement changes in different phases of PD is integrated in the presented method.

  6. A Framework for Automating Cost Estimates in Assembly Processes

    SciTech Connect

    Calton, T.L.; Peters, R.R.

    1998-12-09

    When a product concept emerges, the manufacturing engineer is asked to sketch out a production strategy and estimate its cost. The engineer is given an initial product design, along with a schedule of expected production volumes. The engineer then determines the best approach to manufacturing the product, comparing a variey of alternative production strategies. The engineer must consider capital cost, operating cost, lead-time, and other issues in an attempt to maximize pro$ts. After making these basic choices and sketching the design of overall production, the engineer produces estimates of the required capital, operating costs, and production capacity. 177is process may iterate as the product design is refined in order to improve its pe~ormance or manufacturability. The focus of this paper is on the development of computer tools to aid manufacturing engineers in their decision-making processes. This computer sof~are tool provides aj?amework in which accurate cost estimates can be seamlessly derivedfiom design requirements at the start of any engineering project. Z+e result is faster cycle times through first-pass success; lower ll~e cycie cost due to requirements-driven design and accurate cost estimates derived early in the process.

  7. Estimating the economic and social costs of dementia in Ireland.

    PubMed

    Connolly, Sheelah; Gillespie, Paddy; O'Shea, Eamon; Cahill, Suzanne; Pierce, Maria

    2014-01-01

    Dementia is a costly condition and one that differs from other conditions in the significant cost burden placed on informal caregivers. The aim of this analysis was to estimate the economic and social costs of dementia in Ireland in 2010. With an estimate of 41,470 people with dementia, the total baseline annual cost was found to be over €1.69 billion, 48% of which was attributable to the opportunity cost of informal care provided by family and friends and 43% to residential care. Due to the impact of demographic ageing in the coming decades and the expected increase in the number of people with dementia, family caregivers and the general health and social care system will come under increasing pressure to provide adequate levels of care. Without a significant increase in the amount of resources devoted to dementia, it is unclear how the system will cope in the future.

  8. 48 CFR 9905.501 - Cost accounting standard-consistency in estimating, accumulating and reporting costs by...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...-consistency in estimating, accumulating and reporting costs by educational institutions. 9905.501 Section 9905... ACCOUNTING STANDARDS FOR EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS 9905.501 Cost accounting standard—consistency in estimating, accumulating and reporting costs by educational institutions....

  9. 48 CFR 9905.501 - Cost accounting standard-consistency in estimating, accumulating and reporting costs by...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...-consistency in estimating, accumulating and reporting costs by educational institutions. 9905.501 Section 9905... ACCOUNTING STANDARDS FOR EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS 9905.501 Cost accounting standard—consistency in estimating, accumulating and reporting costs by educational institutions....

  10. 48 CFR 9905.501 - Cost accounting standard-consistency in estimating, accumulating and reporting costs by...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ...-consistency in estimating, accumulating and reporting costs by educational institutions. 9905.501 Section 9905... ACCOUNTING STANDARDS FOR EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS 9905.501 Cost accounting standard—consistency in estimating, accumulating and reporting costs by educational institutions....

  11. Cost estimation model for advanced planetary programs, fourth edition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spadoni, D. J.

    1983-01-01

    The development of the planetary program cost model is discussed. The Model was updated to incorporate cost data from the most recent US planetary flight projects and extensively revised to more accurately capture the information in the historical cost data base. This data base is comprised of the historical cost data for 13 unmanned lunar and planetary flight programs. The revision was made with a two fold objective: to increase the flexibility of the model in its ability to deal with the broad scope of scenarios under consideration for future missions, and to maintain and possibly improve upon the confidence in the model's capabilities with an expected accuracy of 20%. The Model development included a labor/cost proxy analysis, selection of the functional forms of the estimating relationships, and test statistics. An analysis of the Model is discussed and two sample applications of the cost model are presented.

  12. Cost functions to estimate a posteriori probabilities in multiclass problems.

    PubMed

    Cid-Sueiro, J; Arribas, J I; Urbán-Muñoz, S; Figueiras-Vidal, A R

    1999-01-01

    The problem of designing cost functions to estimate a posteriori probabilities in multiclass problems is addressed in this paper. We establish necessary and sufficient conditions that these costs must satisfy in one-class one-output networks whose outputs are consistent with probability laws. We focus our attention on a particular subset of the corresponding cost functions; those which verify two usually interesting properties: symmetry and separability (well-known cost functions, such as the quadratic cost or the cross entropy are particular cases in this subset). Finally, we present a universal stochastic gradient learning rule for single-layer networks, in the sense of minimizing a general version of these cost functions for a wide family of nonlinear activation functions.

  13. Cost estimates for membrane filtration and conventional treatment

    SciTech Connect

    Wiesner, M.R.; Hackney, J.; Sethi, S. ); Jacangelo, J.G. ); Laine, J.M. . Lyonnaise des Eaux)

    1994-12-01

    Costs of several ultrafiltration and nanofiltration processes are compared with the cost of conventional liquid-solid separation with and without GAC adsorption for small water treatment facilities. Data on raw-water quality, permeate flux, recovery, frequency of backflushing, and chemical dosage obtained from a pilot study were used with a previously developed model for membrane costs to calculate anticipated capital and operating costs for each instance. Data from the US Environmental Protection Agency were used to estimate conventional treatment costs. All of the membrane process calculations showed comparable or lower total costs per unit volume treated compared with conventional treatment for small facilities (< 200,000 m[sup 3]/d or about 5 mgd). Membrane processes may offer small facilities a less expensive alternative for the removal of particles and organic materials from drinking water.

  14. Survey of Transmission Cost Allocation Methodologies for Regional Transmission Organizations

    SciTech Connect

    Fink, S.; Porter, K.; Mudd, C.; Rogers, J.

    2011-02-01

    The report presents transmission cost allocation methodologies for reliability transmission projects, generation interconnection, and economic transmission projects for all Regional Transmission Organizations.

  15. Regional Earthquake Shaking and Loss Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sesetyan, K.; Demircioglu, M. B.; Zulfikar, C.; Durukal, E.; Erdik, M.

    2009-04-01

    This study, conducted under the JRA-3 component of the EU NERIES Project, develops a methodology and software (ELER) for the rapid estimation of earthquake shaking and losses in the Euro-Mediterranean region. This multi-level methodology developed together with researchers from Imperial College, NORSAR and ETH-Zurich is capable of incorporating regional variability and sources of uncertainty stemming from ground motion predictions, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships. GRM Risk Management, Inc. of Istanbul serves as sub-contractor tor the coding of the ELER software. The methodology encompasses the following general steps: 1. Finding of the most likely location of the source of the earthquake using regional seismotectonic data base and basic source parameters, and if and when possible, by the estimation of fault rupture parameters from rapid inversion of data from on-line stations. 2. Estimation of the spatial distribution of selected ground motion parameters through region specific ground motion attenuation relationships and using shear wave velocity distributions.(Shake Mapping) 4. Incorporation of strong ground motion and other empirical macroseismic data for the improvement of Shake Map 5. Estimation of the losses (damage, casualty and economic) at different levels of sophistication (0, 1 and 2) that commensurate with the availability of inventory of human built environment (Loss Mapping) Both Level 0 (similar to PAGER system of USGS) and Level 1 analyses of the ELER routine are based on obtaining intensity distributions analytically and estimating total number of casualties and their geographic distribution either using regionally adjusted intensity-casualty or magnitude-casualty correlations (Level 0) of using regional building inventory data bases (Level 1). Level 0 analysis is similar to the PAGER system being developed by USGS. For given

  16. How utilities can achieve more accurate decommissioning cost estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Knight, R.

    1999-07-01

    The number of commercial nuclear power plants that are undergoing decommissioning coupled with the economic pressure of deregulation has increased the focus on adequate funding for decommissioning. The introduction of spent-fuel storage and disposal of low-level radioactive waste into the cost analysis places even greater concern as to the accuracy of the fund calculation basis. The size and adequacy of the decommissioning fund have also played a major part in the negotiations for transfer of plant ownership. For all of these reasons, it is important that the operating plant owner reduce the margin of error in the preparation of decommissioning cost estimates. To data, all of these estimates have been prepared via the building block method. That is, numerous individual calculations defining the planning, engineering, removal, and disposal of plant systems and structures are performed. These activity costs are supplemented by the period-dependent costs reflecting the administration, control, licensing, and permitting of the program. This method will continue to be used in the foreseeable future until adequate performance data are available. The accuracy of the activity cost calculation is directly related to the accuracy of the inventory of plant system component, piping and equipment, and plant structural composition. Typically, it is left up to the cost-estimating contractor to develop this plant inventory. The data are generated by searching and analyzing property asset records, plant databases, piping and instrumentation drawings, piping system isometric drawings, and component assembly drawings. However, experience has shown that these sources may not be up to date, discrepancies may exist, there may be missing data, and the level of detail may not be sufficient. Again, typically, the time constraints associated with the development of the cost estimate preclude perfect resolution of the inventory questions. Another problem area in achieving accurate cost

  17. Essays on the Bayesian estimation of stochastic cost frontier

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Xia

    This dissertation consists of three essays that focus on a Bayesian estimation of stochastic cost frontiers for electric generation plants. This research gives insight into the changing development of the electric generation market and could serve to inform both private investment and public policy decisions. The main contributions to the growing literature on stochastic cost frontier analysis are to (1) Empirically estimate the possible efficiency gain of power plants due to deregulation. (2) Estimate the cost of electric power generating plants using coal as a fuel taking into account both regularity restrictions and sulfur dioxide emissions. (3) Compare costs of plants using coal to those who use natural gas. (4) Apply the Bayesian stochastic frontier model to estimate a single cost frontier and allow firm type to vary across regulated and deregulated plants. The average group efficiency for two different types of plants is estimated. (5) Use a fixed effects and random effects model on an unbalanced panel to estimated group efficiency for regulated and deregulated plants. The first essay focuses on the possible efficiency gain of 136 U.S. electric power generation coal-fired plants in 1996. Results favor the constrained model over the unconstrained model. SO2 is also included in the model to provide more accurate estimates of plant efficiency and returns to scale. The second essay focuses on the predicted costs and returns to scale of coal generation to natural gas generation at plants where the cost of both fuels could be obtained. It is found that, for power plants switching fuel from natural gas to coal in 1996, on average, the expected fuel cost would fall and returns to scale would increase. The third essay first uses pooled unbalanced panel data to analyze the differences in plant efficiency across plant types---regulated and deregulated. The application of a Bayesian stochastic frontier model enables us to apply different mean plant inefficiency terms by

  18. 48 CFR 1552.216-76 - Estimated cost and cost-sharing.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Estimated cost and cost-sharing. 1552.216-76 Section 1552.216-76 Federal Acquisition Regulations System ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY CLAUSES AND FORMS SOLICITATION PROVISIONS AND CONTRACT CLAUSES Texts of Provisions and...

  19. Uncertainty of air pollution cost estimates: to what extent does it matter?

    PubMed

    Rabl, Ari; Spadaro, Joseph V; van der Zwaan, Bob

    2005-01-15

    How large is the social cost penalty if one makes the wrong choice because of uncertainties in the estimates of the costs and benefits of environmental policy measures? For discrete choices there is no general rule other than the recommendation to always carefully compare costs and benefits when introducing policies for environmental protection. For continuous choices (e.g., the ceiling for the total emissions of a pollutant by an entire sector or region), it is instructive to look at the cost penalty as a function of the error in the incremental damage cost estimate. Using abatement cost curves for NOx, SO2, dioxins, and CO2, this paper evaluates the cost penalty for errors in the following: national emission ceilings for NOx and SO2 in each of 12 countries of Europe, an emission ceiling for dioxins in the UK, and limits for the emission of CO2 in Europe. The cost penalty turns out to be remarkably insensitive to errors. An error by a factor of 3 due to uncertainties in the damage estimates for NOx and SO2 increases the total social cost by at most 20% and in most cases much less. For dioxins, the total social cost is increased by at most 10%. For CO2, several different possible cost curves are examined: for some the sensitivity to uncertainties is greater than for the other pollutants, but even here the penalty is less than 30% and in most cases much less if the true damage costs are twice as high as the ones estimated. The paper also quantifies the benefit of improving the accuracy of damage cost estimates by further research.

  20. Statistical Analysis of Complexity Generators for Cost Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rowell, Ginger Holmes

    1999-01-01

    Predicting the cost of cutting edge new technologies involved with spacecraft hardware can be quite complicated. A new feature of the NASA Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM), called the Complexity Generator, is being developed to model the complexity factors that drive the cost of space hardware. This parametric approach is also designed to account for the differences in cost, based on factors that are unique to each system and subsystem. The cost driver categories included in this model are weight, inheritance from previous missions, technical complexity, and management factors. This paper explains the Complexity Generator framework, the statistical methods used to select the best model within this framework, and the procedures used to find the region of predictability and the prediction intervals for the cost of a mission.

  1. Utilizing Expert Knowledge in Estimating Future STS Costs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fortner, David B.; Ruiz-Torres, Alex J.

    2004-01-01

    A method of estimating the costs of future space transportation systems (STSs) involves classical activity-based cost (ABC) modeling combined with systematic utilization of the knowledge and opinions of experts to extend the process-flow knowledge of existing systems to systems that involve new materials and/or new architectures. The expert knowledge is particularly helpful in filling gaps that arise in computational models of processes because of inconsistencies in historical cost data. Heretofore, the costs of planned STSs have been estimated following a "top-down" approach that tends to force the architectures of new systems to incorporate process flows like those of the space shuttles. In this ABC-based method, one makes assumptions about the processes, but otherwise follows a "bottoms up" approach that does not force the new system architecture to incorporate a space-shuttle-like process flow. Prototype software has been developed to implement this method. Through further development of software, it should be possible to extend the method beyond the space program to almost any setting in which there is a need to estimate the costs of a new system and to extend the applicable knowledge base in order to make the estimate.

  2. Energetic costs of mange in wolves estimated from infrared thermography

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cross, Paul C.; Almberg, Emily S.; Haase, Catherine G; Hudson, Peter J.; Maloney, Shane K; Metz, Matthew C; Munn, Adam J; Nugent, Paul; Putzeys, Olivier; Stahler, Daniel R.; Stewart, Anya C; Smith, Doug W.

    2016-01-01

    Parasites, by definition, extract energy from their hosts and thus affect trophic and food web dynamics even when the parasite may have limited effects on host population size. We studied the energetic costs of mange (Sarcoptes scabiei) in wolves (Canis lupus) using thermal cameras to estimate heat losses associated with compromised insulation during the winter. We combined the field data of known, naturally infected wolves with data set on captive wolves with shaved patches of fur as a positive control to simulate mange-induced hair loss. We predict that during the winter in Montana, more severe mange infection increases heat loss by around 5.2 to 12 MJ per night (1240 to 2850 kcal, or a 65% to 78% increase) for small and large wolves, respectively accounting for wind effects. To maintain body temperature would require a significant proportion of a healthy wolf's total daily energy demands (18-22 MJ/day). We also predict how these thermal costs may increase in colder climates by comparing our predictions in Bozeman, Montana to those from a place with lower ambient temperatures (Fairbanks, Alaska). Contrary to our expectations, the 14°C differential between these regions was not as important as the potential differences in wind speed. These large increases in energetic demands can be mitigated by either increasing consumption rates or decreasing other energy demands. Data from GPS-collared wolves indicated that healthy wolves move, on average, 17 km per day, which was reduced by 1.5, 1.8 and 6.5 km for light, medium, and severe hair loss. In addition, the wolf with the most hair loss was less active at night and more active during the day, which is the converse of the movement patterns of healthy wolves. At the individual level mange infections create significant energy demands and altered behavioral patterns, this may have cascading effects on prey consumption rates, food web dynamics, predator-prey interactions, and scavenger communities.

  3. Estimating the mission-related costs of teaching hospitals.

    PubMed

    Koenig, Lane; Dobson, Allen; Ho, Silver; Siegel, Jonathan M; Blumenthal, David; Weissman, Joel S

    2003-01-01

    Academic health centers and other teaching hospitals face higher patient care costs than nonteaching community hospitals face, because of their missions of graduate medical education (GME), biomedical research, and the maintenance of standby capacity for medically complex patients. We estimate that total mission-related costs were dollar 27 billion in 2002 for all teaching hospitals, with GME (including indirect and direct GME) and standby capacity accounting for roughly 60 and 35 percent of these costs, respectively. To assure their continued ability to perform important social missions in a competitive environment, it may be necessary to reassess the way in which these activities are financed.

  4. Weight and cost estimating relationships for heavy lift airships

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gray, D. W.

    1979-01-01

    Weight and cost estimating relationships, including additional parameters that influence the cost and performance of heavy-lift airships (HLA), are discussed. Inputs to a closed loop computer program, consisting of useful load, forward speed, lift module positive or negative thrust, and rotors and propellers, are examined. Detail is given to the HLA cost and weight program (HLACW), which computes component weights, vehicle size, buoyancy lift, rotor and propellar thrust, and engine horse power. This program solves the problem of interrelating the different aerostat, rotors, engines and propeller sizes. Six sets of 'default parameters' are left for the operator to change during each computer run enabling slight data manipulation without altering the program.

  5. A process model to estimate biodiesel production costs.

    PubMed

    Haas, Michael J; McAloon, Andrew J; Yee, Winnie C; Foglia, Thomas A

    2006-03-01

    'Biodiesel' is the name given to a renewable diesel fuel that is produced from fats and oils. It consists of the simple alkyl esters of fatty acids, most typically the methyl esters. We have developed a computer model to estimate the capital and operating costs of a moderately-sized industrial biodiesel production facility. The major process operations in the plant were continuous-process vegetable oil transesterification, and ester and glycerol recovery. The model was designed using contemporary process simulation software, and current reagent, equipment and supply costs, following current production practices. Crude, degummed soybean oil was specified as the feedstock. Annual production capacity of the plant was set at 37,854,118 l (10 x 10(6)gal). Facility construction costs were calculated to be US dollar 11.3 million. The largest contributors to the equipment cost, accounting for nearly one third of expenditures, were storage tanks to contain a 25 day capacity of feedstock and product. At a value of US dollar 0.52/kg (dollar 0.236/lb) for feedstock soybean oil, a biodiesel production cost of US dollar 0.53/l (dollar 2.00/gal) was predicted. The single greatest contributor to this value was the cost of the oil feedstock, which accounted for 88% of total estimated production costs. An analysis of the dependence of production costs on the cost of the feedstock indicated a direct linear relationship between the two, with a change of US dollar 0.020/l (dollar 0.075/gal) in product cost per US dollar 0.022/kg (dollar 0.01/lb) change in oil cost. Process economics included the recovery of coproduct glycerol generated during biodiesel production, and its sale into the commercial glycerol market as an 80% w/w aqueous solution, which reduced production costs by approximately 6%. The production cost of biodiesel was found to vary inversely and linearly with variations in the market value of glycerol, increasing by US dollar 0.0022/l (dollar 0.0085/gal) for every US

  6. Common Day Care Safety Renovations: Descriptions, Explanations and Cost Estimates.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Spack, Stan

    This booklet explains some of the day care safety features specified by the new Massachusetts State Building Code (January 1, 1975) which must be met before a new day care center can be licensed. The safety features described are those which most often require renovation to meet the building code standards. Best estimates of the costs involved in…

  7. A Semantics-Based Approach to Construction Cost Estimating

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Niknam, Mehrdad

    2015-01-01

    A construction project requires collaboration of different organizations such as owner, designer, contractor, and resource suppliers. These organizations need to exchange information to improve their teamwork. Understanding the information created in other organizations requires specialized human resources. Construction cost estimating is one of…

  8. Stochastic Estimation of Cost Frontier: Evidence from Bangladesh

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mamun, Shamsul Arifeen Khan

    2012-01-01

    In the literature of higher education cost function study, enough knowledge is created in the area of economy scale in the context of developed countries but the knowledge of input demand is lacking. On the other hand, empirical knowledge in the context of developing countries is very meagre. The paper fills up the knowledge gap, estimating a…

  9. Advanced Composite Air Frame Life Cycle Cost Estimating

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-06-19

    achievements. And, also, I dedicate this page to the soul of my father and lovely mother who taught me many life lessons and to my beautiful wife and four...Test Panel [ 17] .......................................................... 18 Figure 2 : Boeing 787 Dreamliner External Skin Makeup [ 7...exist a relationship between variables and empty wieght (EW) to build better cost estimation relationships (CERs). This research will help the

  10. Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness of Coordinated DSM Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hill, Lawrence J.; Brown, Marilyn A.

    1995-01-01

    A methodology for estimating the cost-effectiveness of coordinated programs from the standpoint of an electric or gas utility is described and illustrated. The discussion focuses on demand-side management programs cofunded by the government and utilities, but it can be applied to other types of cofunded programs. (SLD)

  11. Geostatistical Estimations of Regional Hydraulic Conductivity Fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patriarche, D.; Castro, M. C.; Goovaerts, P.

    2004-12-01

    Direct and indirect measurements of hydraulic conductivity (K) are commonly performed, providing information on the magnitude of this parameter at the local scale (tens of centimeters to hundreds of meters) and at shallow depths. By contrast, field information on hydraulic conductivities at regional scales of tens to hundreds of kilometers and at greater depths is relatively scarce. Geostatistical methods allow for sparsely sampled observations of a variable (primary information) to be complemented by a more densely sampled secondary attribute. Geostatistical estimations of the hydraulic conductivity field in the Carrizo aquifer, a major groundwater flow system extending along Texas, are performed using available primary (e.g., transmissivity, hydraulic conductivity) and secondary (specific capacity) information, for depths up to 2.2 km, and over three regional domains of increasing extent: 1) the domain corresponding to a three-dimensional groundwater flow model previously built (model domain); 2) the area corresponding to the ten counties encompassing the model domain (County domain), and; 3) the full extension of the Carrizo aquifer within Texas (Texas domain). Two different approaches are used: 1) an indirect approach are transmissivity (T) is estimated first and (K) is retrieved through division of the T estimate by the screening length of the wells, and; 2) a direct approach where K data are kriged directly. Prediction performances of the tested geostatistical procedures (kriging combined with linear regression, kriging with known local means, kriging of residuals, and cokriging) are evaluated through cross validation for both log-transformed variables and back-transformed ones. For the indirect approach, kriging of log T residuals yields the best estimates for both log-transformed and back-transformed variables in the model domain. For larger regional scales (County and Texas domains), cokriging performs generally better than univariate kriging procedures

  12. 16 CFR 305.5 - Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and energy efficiency rating, and of water use rate. 305.5... energy efficiency rating, and of water use rate. Link to an amendment published at 75 FR 41713, July 19... operating costs, the energy efficiency ratings, and the efficacy factors of the following covered...

  13. Estimating the standardized mean difference with minimum risk: Maximizing accuracy and minimizing cost with sequential estimation.

    PubMed

    Chattopadhyay, Bhargab; Kelley, Ken

    2017-03-01

    The standardized mean difference is a widely used effect size measure. In this article, we develop a general theory for estimating the population standardized mean difference by minimizing both the mean square error of the estimator and the total sampling cost. Fixed sample size methods, when sample size is planned before the start of a study, cannot simultaneously minimize both the mean square error of the estimator and the total sampling cost. To overcome this limitation of the current state of affairs, this article develops a purely sequential sampling procedure, which provides an estimate of the sample size required to achieve a sufficiently accurate estimate with minimum expected sampling cost. Performance of the purely sequential procedure is examined via a simulation study to show that our analytic developments are highly accurate. Additionally, we provide freely available functions in R to implement the algorithm of the purely sequential procedure. (PsycINFO Database Record

  14. Estimating the Cost of NASA's Space Launch Initiative: How SLI Cost Stack Up Against the Shuttle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamaker, Joseph H.; Roth, Axel (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    NASA is planning to replace the Space Shuttle with a new completely reusable Second Generation Launch System by approximately 2012. Numerous contracted and NASA in-house Space Transportation Architecture Studies and various technology maturation activities are proceeding and have resulted in scores of competing architecture configurations being proposed. Life cycle cost is a key discriminator between all these various concepts. However, the one obvious analogy for costing purposes remains the current Shuttle system. Are there credible reasons to believe that a second generation reusable launch system can be accomplished at less cost than the Shuttle? The need for a credible answer to this question is critical. This paper reviews the cost estimating approaches being used by the contractors and the government estimators to address this issue and explores the rationale behind the numbers.

  15. VERIFICATION OF SIMPLIFIED PROCEDURES FOR SITE- SPECIFIC SO2 AND NOX CONTROL COST ESTIMATES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report documents results of an evaluation to verify the accuracy of simplified procedures for estimating sulfur dioxide (S02) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) retrofit control costs and performance for 200 502-emitting coal-fired power plants in the 31-state eastern region. nitially...

  16. Breckinridge Project, initial effort. Report VIII. Capital cost estimate

    SciTech Connect

    1982-01-01

    The major objective of the Initial Effort for the Breckinridge Project is to develop engineering to the point where realistic economics for the construction and operation of the plant can be made. The plant is designed to process 23,000 tons per day of run-of-mine coal to produce a nominal 50,000 barrels per day of liquid products using the H-COAL and standard industry technology. The plant will be located in Breckinridge County, Kentucky. Considerable preliminary engineering has been performed for this estimate. This work uses a single-point design based on the Process Demonstration Unit (PDU) data from run 5, period 29 of the pilot plant. The design basis is discussed in Volume II of this report. Many aspects of plant construction and cost have been considered that were not taken into account in the past studies. Ashland and Bechtel believe the accuracy of the capital estimate to be +19%, -17%. This accuracy is postulated on January 1981 dollars, the as-spent dollar amount naturally depending upon the inflation rate through the construction period. Considerable attention has been devoted to reliability of operation, and redundant equipment has been used where it was deemed necessary to assure reasonable onstream time. This equipment is included in the capital estimate. The capital is summarized by total plant cost on Table 1. The subtotal plant cost, excluding contingency, fee, and adjustment is $2,710,940,000. Adding the contingency, fee and adjustment, the total depreciable cost of the plant is $3,167,430,000. Adding the working capital to the total plant cost results in total capital requirements of $3,258,430,000 as shown on the individual plant cost summary Table 2.

  17. Estimating flood exceedance probabilities in estuarine regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westra, Seth; Leonard, Michael

    2016-04-01

    Flood events in estuarine regions can arise from the interaction of extreme rainfall and storm surge. Determining flood level exceedance probabilities in these regions is complicated by the dependence of these processes for extreme events. A comprehensive study of tide and rainfall gauges along the Australian coastline was conducted to determine the dependence of these extremes using a bivariate logistic threshold-excess model. The dependence strength is shown to vary as a function of distance over many hundreds of kilometres indicating that the dependence arises due to synoptic scale meteorological forcings. It is also shown to vary as a function of storm burst duration, time lag between the extreme rainfall and the storm surge event. The dependence estimates are then used with a bivariate design variable method to determine flood risk in estuarine regions for a number of case studies. Aspects of the method demonstrated in the case studies include, the resolution and range of the hydraulic response table, fitting of probability distributions, computational efficiency, uncertainty, potential variation in marginal distributions due to climate change, and application to two dimensional output from hydraulic models. Case studies are located on the Swan River (Western Australia), Nambucca River and Hawkesbury Nepean River (New South Wales).

  18. Estimating the Deep Space Network modification costs to prepare for future space missions by using major cost drivers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Remer, Donald S.; Sherif, Josef; Buchanan, Harry R.

    1993-01-01

    This paper develops a cost model to do long range planning cost estimates for Deep Space Network (DSN) support of future space missions. The paper focuses on the costs required to modify and/or enhance the DSN to prepare for future space missions. The model is a function of eight major mission cost drivers and estimates both the total cost and the annual costs of a similar future space mission. The model is derived from actual cost data from three space missions: Voyager (Uranus), Voyager (Neptune), and Magellan. Estimates derived from the model are tested against actual cost data for two independent missions, Viking and Mariner Jupiter/Saturn (MJS).

  19. A Comparative Analysis of the Cost Estimating Error Risk Associated with Flyaway Costs Versus Individual Components of Aircraft

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2003-03-01

    18 Parametric Estimation .......................................................................19...prevalent in many different cost estimation techniques. They are the cornerstones of the parametric estimation technique developed by the RAND Corporation...estimation technique spectrum are parametric estimation and grass roots estimation. The parametric estimation technique can be 19 considered a macro

  20. Energetic costs of mange in wolves estimated from infrared thermography.

    PubMed

    Cross, P C; Almberg, E S; Haase, C G; Hudson, P J; Maloney, S K; Metz, M C; Munn, A J; Nugent, P; Putzeys, O; Stahler, D R; Stewart, A C; Smith, D W

    2016-08-01

    Parasites, by definition, extract energy from their hosts and thus affect trophic and food web dynamics even when the parasite may have limited effects on host population size. We studied the energetic costs of mange (Sarcoptes scabiei) in wolves (Canis lupus) using thermal cameras to estimate heat losses associated with compromised insulation during the winter. We combined the field data of known, naturally infected wolves with a data set on captive wolves with shaved patches of fur as a positive control to simulate mange-induced hair loss. We predict that during the winter in Montana, more severe mange infection increases heat loss by around 5.2-12 MJ per night (1,240-2,850 kcal, or a 65-78% increase) for small and large wolves, respectively, accounting for wind effects. To maintain body temperature would require a significant proportion of a healthy wolf's total daily energy demands (18-22 MJ/day). We also predict how these thermal costs may increase in colder climates by comparing our predictions in Bozeman, Montana to those from a place with lower ambient temperatures (Fairbanks, Alaska). Contrary to our expectations, the 14°C differential between these regions was not as important as the potential differences in wind speed. These large increases in energetic demands can be mitigated by either increasing consumption rates or decreasing other energy demands. Data from GPS-collared wolves indicated that healthy wolves move, on average, 17 km per day, which was reduced by 1.5, 1.8, and 6.5 km for light, medium, and severe hair loss. In addition, the wolf with the most hair loss was less active at night and more active during the day, which is the converse of the movement patterns of healthy wolves. At the individual level, mange infections create significant energy demands and altered behavioral patterns, this may have cascading effects on prey consumption rates, food web dynamics, predator-prey interactions, and scavenger communities.

  1. Estimating boiling water reactor decommissioning costs: A user`s manual for the BWR Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Bierschbach, M.C.

    1996-06-01

    Nuclear power plant licensees are required to submit to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for review their decommissioning cost estimates. This user`s manual and the accompanying Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software provide a cost-calculating methodology to the NRC staff that will assist them in assessing the adequacy of the licensee submittals. The CECP, designed to be used on a personal computer, provides estimates for the cost of decommissioning boiling water reactor (BWR) power stations to the point of license termination. Such cost estimates include component, piping, and equipment removal costs; packaging costs; decontamination costs; transportation costs; burial costs; and manpower costs. In addition to costs, the CECP also calculates burial volumes, person-hours, crew-hours, and exposure person-hours associated with decommissioning.

  2. Estimating boiling water reactor decommissioning costs. A user`s manual for the BWR Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software: Draft report for comment

    SciTech Connect

    Bierschbach, M.C.

    1994-12-01

    With the issuance of the Decommissioning Rule (July 27, 1988), nuclear power plant licensees are required to submit to the U.S. Regulatory Commission (NRC) for review, decommissioning plans and cost estimates. This user`s manual and the accompanying Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software provide a cost-calculating methodology to the NRC staff that will assist them in assessing the adequacy of the licensee submittals. The CECP, designed to be used on a personal computer, provides estimates for the cost of decommissioning BWR power stations to the point of license termination. Such cost estimates include component, piping, and equipment removal costs; packaging costs; decontamination costs; transportation costs; burial costs; and manpower costs. In addition to costs, the CECP also calculates burial volumes, person-hours, crew-hours, and exposure person-hours associated with decommissioning.

  3. Cost Estimation of Laser Additive Manufacturing of Stainless Steel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piili, Heidi; Happonen, Ari; Väistö, Tapio; Venkataramanan, Vijaikrishnan; Partanen, Jouni; Salminen, Antti

    Laser additive manufacturing (LAM) is a layer wise fabrication method in which a laser beam melts metallic powder to form solid objects. Although 3D printing has been invented 30 years ago, the industrial use is quite limited whereas the introduction of cheap consumer 3D printers, in recent years, has familiarized the 3D printing. Interest is focused more and more in manufacturing of functional parts. Aim of this study is to define and discuss the current economic opportunities and restrictions of LAM process. Manufacturing costs were studied with different build scenarios each with estimated cost structure by calculated build time and calculating the costs of the machine, material and energy with optimized machine utilization. All manufacturing and time simulations in this study were carried out with a research machine equal to commercial EOS M series equipment. The study shows that the main expense in LAM is the investment cost of the LAM machine, compared to which the relative proportions of the energy and material costs are very low. The manufacturing time per part is the key factor to optimize costs of LAM.

  4. Cost estimate for muddy water palladium production facility at Mound

    SciTech Connect

    McAdams, R.K.

    1988-11-30

    An economic feasibility study was performed on the ''Muddy Water'' low-chlorine content palladium powder production process developed by Mound. The total capital investment and total operating costs (dollars per gram) were determined for production batch sizes of 1--10 kg in 1-kg increments. The report includes a brief description of the Muddy Water process, the process flow diagram, and material balances for the various production batch sizes. Two types of facilities were evaluated--one for production of new, ''virgin'' palladium powder, and one for recycling existing material. The total capital investment for virgin facilities ranged from $600,000 --$1.3 million for production batch sizes of 1--10 kg, respectively. The range for recycle facilities was $1--$2.3 million. The total operating cost for 100% acceptable powder production in the virgin facilities ranged from $23 per gram for a 1-kg production batch size to $8 per gram for a 10-kg batch size. Similarly for recycle facilities, the total operating cost ranged from $34 per gram to $5 per gram. The total operating cost versus product acceptability (ranging from 50%--100% acceptability) was also evaluated for both virgin and recycle facilities. Because production sizes studied vary widely and because scale-up factors are unknown for batch sizes greater than 1 kg, all costs are ''order-of-magnitude'' estimates. All costs reported are in 1987 dollars.

  5. Man power/cost estimation model: Automated planetary projects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kitchen, L. D.

    1975-01-01

    A manpower/cost estimation model is developed which is based on a detailed level of financial analysis of over 30 million raw data points which are then compacted by more than three orders of magnitude to the level at which the model is applicable. The major parameter of expenditure is manpower (specifically direct labor hours) for all spacecraft subsystem and technical support categories. The resultant model is able to provide a mean absolute error of less than fifteen percent for the eight programs comprising the model data base. The model includes cost saving inheritance factors, broken down in four levels, for estimating follow-on type programs where hardware and design inheritance are evident or expected.

  6. Screening, prevention and treatment of cervical cancer -- a global and regional generalized cost-effectiveness analysis.

    PubMed

    Ginsberg, Gary Michael; Edejer, Tessa Tan-Torres; Lauer, Jeremy A; Sepulveda, Cecilia

    2009-10-09

    The paper calculates regional generalized cost-effectiveness estimates of screening, prevention, treatment and combined interventions for cervical cancer. Using standardised WHO-CHOICE methodology, a cervical cancer model was employed to provide estimates of screening, vaccination and treatment effectiveness. Intervention effectiveness was determined via a population state-transition model (PopMod) that simulates the evolution of a sub-regional population accounting for births, deaths and disease epidemiology. Economic costs of procedures and treatment were estimated, including programme overhead and training costs. In regions characterized by high income, low mortality and high existing treatment coverage, the addition of any screening programme to the current high treatment levels is very cost-effective. However, based on projections of the future price per dose (representing the economic costs of the vaccination excluding monopolistic rents and vaccine development cost) vaccination is the most cost-effective intervention. In regions characterized by low income, low mortality and existing treatment coverage around 50%, expanding treatment with or without combining it with screening appears to be cost-effective or very cost-effective. Abandoning treatment in favour of screening in a no-treatment scenario would not be cost-effective. Vaccination is usually the most cost-effective intervention. Penta or tri-annual PAP smears appear to be cost-effective, though when combined with HPV-DNA testing they are not cost-effective. In regions characterized by low income, high mortality and low treatment levels, expanding treatment with or without adding screening would be very cost-effective. A one off vaccination plus expanding treatment was usually very cost-effective. One-off PAP or VIA screening at age 40 are more cost-effective than other interventions though less effective overall. From a cost-effectiveness perspective, consideration should be given to implementing

  7. Test Case Study: Estimating the Cost of Ada Software Development

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-04-01

    selected Navy data were used to develop the SASEr model (HEA89]. SASET is meant to be used to estimate development in Assembly, Ada, or any HOL. However...3-6 3.4 Criteria For Ratings Selection ........ 3-10 3.4.1 Normalization ..... ................. .. 3-11 3.4.2 Cunparison of Model Results...costing issues. The guiding principle for model selection for inclusion in the study was the availability of models to the AF=, USACEAC, and IITRI

  8. Computer-Aided Final Design Cost Estimating System Overview.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1977-05-01

    laboratory _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ /1— COMPUTER-AIDED FINAL DESIGN • COST ESTIMATING SYSTEM OVERVIEW © by...PROJECT . TASKAAEA~~ WORK UNIT NUMBERSCONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING RESEARCH LABORATORY ~~~~~~~~~ .• . — P.O. Box 4005 ~~ 4A7627~ %T4fldt11 Champa ign , IL 61820...Construction Division (FA), U.S. Army Construction Engineering Re- search Laboratory (CERL), Champaign , IL. The Principal Investigator was Mr. Michael

  9. Methodology for estimating reprocessing costs for nuclear fuels

    SciTech Connect

    Carter, W. L.; Rainey, R. H.

    1980-02-01

    A technological and economic evaluation of reprocessing requirements for alternate fuel cycles requires a common assessment method and a common basis to which various cycles can be related. A methodology is described for the assessment of alternate fuel cycles utilizing a side-by-side comparison of functional flow diagrams of major areas of the reprocessing plant with corresponding diagrams of the well-developed Purex process as installed in the Barnwell Nuclear Fuel Plant (BNFP). The BNFP treats 1500 metric tons of uranium per year (MTU/yr). Complexity and capacity factors are determined for adjusting the estimated facility and equipment costs of BNFP to determine the corresponding costs for the alternate fuel cycle. Costs of capacities other than the reference 1500 MT of heavy metal per year are estimated by the use of scaling factors. Unit costs of reprocessed fuel are calculated using a discounted cash flow analysis for three economic bases to show the effect of low-risk, typical, and high-risk financing methods.

  10. Cost estimate for a proposed GDF Suez LNG testing program

    SciTech Connect

    Blanchat, Thomas K.; Brady, Patrick Dennis; Jernigan, Dann A.; Luketa, Anay Josephine; Nissen, Mark R.; Lopez, Carlos; Vermillion, Nancy; Hightower, Marion Michael

    2014-02-01

    At the request of GDF Suez, a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate was prepared for the design, construction, testing, and data analysis for an experimental series of large-scale (Liquefied Natural Gas) LNG spills on land and water that would result in the largest pool fires and vapor dispersion events ever conducted. Due to the expected cost of this large, multi-year program, the authors utilized Sandia's structured cost estimating methodology. This methodology insures that the efforts identified can be performed for the cost proposed at a plus or minus 30 percent confidence. The scale of the LNG spill, fire, and vapor dispersion tests proposed by GDF could produce hazard distances and testing safety issues that need to be fully explored. Based on our evaluations, Sandia can utilize much of our existing fire testing infrastructure for the large fire tests and some small dispersion tests (with some modifications) in Albuquerque, but we propose to develop a new dispersion testing site at our remote test area in Nevada because of the large hazard distances. While this might impact some testing logistics, the safety aspects warrant this approach. In addition, we have included a proposal to study cryogenic liquid spills on water and subsequent vaporization in the presence of waves. Sandia is working with DOE on applications that provide infrastructure pertinent to wave production. We present an approach to conduct repeatable wave/spill interaction testing that could utilize such infrastructure.

  11. Methods for cost estimation in software project management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Briciu, C. V.; Filip, I.; Indries, I. I.

    2016-02-01

    The speed in which the processes used in software development field have changed makes it very difficult the task of forecasting the overall costs for a software project. By many researchers, this task has been considered unachievable, but there is a group of scientist for which this task can be solved using the already known mathematical methods (e.g. multiple linear regressions) and the new techniques as genetic programming and neural networks. The paper presents a solution for building a model for the cost estimation models in the software project management using genetic algorithms starting from the PROMISE datasets related COCOMO 81 model. In the first part of the paper, a summary of the major achievements in the research area of finding a model for estimating the overall project costs is presented together with the description of the existing software development process models. In the last part, a basic proposal of a mathematical model of a genetic programming is proposed including here the description of the chosen fitness function and chromosome representation. The perspective of model described it linked with the current reality of the software development considering as basis the software product life cycle and the current challenges and innovations in the software development area. Based on the author's experiences and the analysis of the existing models and product lifecycle it was concluded that estimation models should be adapted with the new technologies and emerging systems and they depend largely by the chosen software development method.

  12. ESTIMATING IMPERVIOUS COVER FROM REGIONALLY AVAILABLE DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The objective of this study is to compare and evaluate the reliability of different approaches for estimating impervious cover including three empirical formulations for estimating impervious cover from population density data, estimation from categorized land cover data, and to ...

  13. Estimating the cost of blood: past, present, and future directions.

    PubMed

    Shander, Aryeh; Hofmann, Axel; Gombotz, Hans; Theusinger, Oliver M; Spahn, Donat R

    2007-06-01

    Understanding the costs associated with blood products requires sophisticated knowledge about transfusion medicine and is attracting the attention of clinical and administrative healthcare sectors worldwide. To improve outcomes, blood usage must be optimized and expenditures controlled so that resources may be channeled toward other diagnostic, therapeutic, and technological initiatives. Estimating blood costs, however, is a complex undertaking, surpassing simple supply versus demand economics. Shrinking donor availability and application of a precautionary principle to minimize transfusion risks are factors that continue to drive the cost of blood products upward. Recognizing that historical accounting attempts to determine blood costs have varied in scope, perspective, and methodology, new approaches have been initiated to identify all potential cost elements related to blood and blood product administration. Activities are also under way to tie these elements together in a comprehensive and practical model that will be applicable to all single-donor blood products without regard to practice type (e.g., academic, private, multi- or single-center clinic). These initiatives, their rationale, importance, and future directions are described.

  14. COSTMODL - AN AUTOMATED SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT COST ESTIMATION TOOL

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Roush, G. B.

    1994-01-01

    The cost of developing computer software consumes an increasing portion of many organizations' budgets. As this trend continues, the capability to estimate the effort and schedule required to develop a candidate software product becomes increasingly important. COSTMODL is an automated software development estimation tool which fulfills this need. Assimilating COSTMODL to any organization's particular environment can yield significant reduction in the risk of cost overruns and failed projects. This user-customization capability is unmatched by any other available estimation tool. COSTMODL accepts a description of a software product to be developed and computes estimates of the effort required to produce it, the calendar schedule required, and the distribution of effort and staffing as a function of the defined set of development life-cycle phases. This is accomplished by the five cost estimation algorithms incorporated into COSTMODL: the NASA-developed KISS model; the Basic, Intermediate, and Ada COCOMO models; and the Incremental Development model. This choice affords the user the ability to handle project complexities ranging from small, relatively simple projects to very large projects. Unique to COSTMODL is the ability to redefine the life-cycle phases of development and the capability to display a graphic representation of the optimum organizational structure required to develop the subject project, along with required staffing levels and skills. The program is menu-driven and mouse sensitive with an extensive context-sensitive help system that makes it possible for a new user to easily install and operate the program and to learn the fundamentals of cost estimation without having prior training or separate documentation. The implementation of these functions, along with the customization feature, into one program makes COSTMODL unique within the industry. COSTMODL was written for IBM PC compatibles, and it requires Turbo Pascal 5.0 or later and Turbo

  15. IVF cycle cost estimation using Activity Based Costing and Monte Carlo simulation.

    PubMed

    Cassettari, Lucia; Mosca, Marco; Mosca, Roberto; Rolando, Fabio; Costa, Mauro; Pisaturo, Valerio

    2016-03-01

    The Authors present a new methodological approach in stochastic regime to determine the actual costs of an healthcare process. The paper specifically shows the application of the methodology for the determination of the cost of an Assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment in Italy. The reason of this research comes from the fact that deterministic regime is inadequate to implement an accurate estimate of the cost of this particular treatment. In fact the durations of the different activities involved are unfixed and described by means of frequency distributions. Hence the need to determine in addition to the mean value of the cost, the interval within which it is intended to vary with a known confidence level. Consequently the cost obtained for each type of cycle investigated (in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer with or without intracytoplasmic sperm injection), shows tolerance intervals around the mean value sufficiently restricted as to make the data obtained statistically robust and therefore usable also as reference for any benchmark with other Countries. It should be noted that under a methodological point of view the approach was rigorous. In fact it was used both the technique of Activity Based Costing for determining the cost of individual activities of the process both the Monte Carlo simulation, with control of experimental error, for the construction of the tolerance intervals on the final result.

  16. Measuring costs of child abuse and neglect: a mathematic model of specific cost estimations.

    PubMed

    Conrad, Cynthia

    2006-01-01

    Few empirical facts exist regarding the actual costs of child abuse in the United States. Consistent data is not available for national or even statewide analysis. Clearly there is a need for such accounting in order to fully understand the damage created by child abuse and neglect. Policy makers and social welfare planners should take child abuse costs into consideration when determining expenditures for prevention and intervention programs. The real savings may far outweigh the costs of such programs when both direct and indirect costs of child abuse and neglect enter into the analysis. This paper offers a model in which the actual costs of child abuse and neglect, based on direct, indirect, and opportunity costs associated with each case. Direct costs are those associated with the treatment of abused and neglected children as well as the costs of family intervention programs or foster care. Indirect costs are costs to society created by the negative effects of child abuse and neglect evinced by individuals who suffer such abuse and then as teens or adults engage in criminal behavior. Indirect costs also derive from the long term and ongoing health care needs required by victims of abuse, for both physical and mental health disorders. With the existence of this model, the author hopes to stimulate the discussion and desire for better data collection and analysis. In order to demonstrate the utility of the model, the author has included some cost estimates from the Connecticut State Department of Children and Families and the works of other scholars looking into the question of costs for child abuse and neglect. This data represents the best available at this time. As a result, the model appearing here is specific to Connecticut. Even so, once more valid data becomes available, the model's structure and theoretical framework should adapt to the needs of other states to facilitate better measurement of relevant costs and provide a clearer picture of the utility of

  17. Fast Conceptual Cost Estimating of Aerospace Projects Using Historical Information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Butts, Glenn

    2007-01-01

    Accurate estimates can be created in less than a minute by applying powerful techniques and algorithms to create an Excel-based parametric cost model. In five easy steps you will learn how to normalize your company 's historical cost data to the new project parameters. This paper provides a complete, easy-to-understand, step by step how-to guide. Such a guide does not seem to currently exist. Over 2,000 hours of research, data collection, and trial and error, and thousands of lines of Excel Visual Basic Application (VBA) code were invested in developing these methods. While VBA is not required to use this information, it increases the power and aesthetics of the model. Implementing all of the steps described, while not required, will increase the accuracy of the results.

  18. Why Don't They Just Give Us Money? Project Cost Estimating and Cost Reporting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Comstock, Douglas A.; Van Wychen, Kristin; Zimmerman, Mary Beth

    2015-01-01

    Successful projects require an integrated approach to managing cost, schedule, and risk. This is especially true for complex, multi-year projects involving multiple organizations. To explore solutions and leverage valuable lessons learned, NASA's Virtual Project Management Challenge will kick off a three-part series examining some of the challenges faced by project and program managers when it comes to managing these important elements. In this first session of the series, we will look at cost management, with an emphasis on the critical roles of cost estimating and cost reporting. By taking a proactive approach to both of these activities, project managers can better control life cycle costs, maintain stakeholder confidence, and protect other current and future projects in the organization's portfolio. Speakers will be Doug Comstock, Director of NASA's Cost Analysis Division, Kristin Van Wychen, Senior Analyst in the GAO Acquisition and Sourcing Management Team, and Mary Beth Zimmerman, Branch Chief for NASA's Portfolio Analysis Branch, Strategic Investments Division. Moderator Ramien Pierre is from NASA's Academy for Program/Project and Engineering Leadership (APPEL).

  19. Architects and Design-Phase Cost Estimates: Design Professionals Should Reconsider the Value of Third-Party Estimates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coakley, John

    2010-01-01

    Professional cost estimators are widely used by architects during the design phases of a project to provide preliminary cost estimates. These estimates may begin at the conceptual design phase and are prepared at regular intervals through the construction document phase. Estimating professionals are frequently tasked with "selling" the importance…

  20. 48 CFR 2452.216-70 - Estimated cost, base fee and award fee.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Estimated cost, base fee... Provisions and Clauses 2452.216-70 Estimated cost, base fee and award fee. As prescribed in 2416.406(e)(1), insert the following clause in all cost-plus-award-fee contracts: Estimated Cost, Base Fee and Award...

  1. 48 CFR 2452.216-70 - Estimated cost, base fee and award fee.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Estimated cost, base fee... Provisions and Clauses 2452.216-70 Estimated cost, base fee and award fee. As prescribed in 2416.406(e)(1), insert the following clause in all cost-plus-award-fee contracts: Estimated Cost, Base Fee and Award...

  2. Cost-Estimating Relationships for Tactical Combat Aircraft

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1984-11-01

    Copy 19 f 275 copies " 0 IDA MEMORANDUM REPORT M-14 L2 COST-ESTIMATING RELATIONSHIPS FOR TACTICAL COMBAT AIRCRAFT Joseph W. Stahl Joseph A. Arena...Mark 1. Knapp " November 1984 0 MAR 91985 Prepared jor Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering f his document has been...34. *","-, . , ... . - . " *. ° •" . •-• o- . • include aircraft introduced into the force in the 1970s and 1980s; the F -14, F -15, F -16, F /A-18, A-10 and AV-8B

  3. IUS/TUG orbital operations and mission support study. Volume 5: Cost estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1975-01-01

    The costing approach, methodology, and rationale utilized for generating cost data for composite IUS and space tug orbital operations are discussed. Summary cost estimates are given along with cost data initially derived for the IUS program and space tug program individually, and cost estimates for each work breakdown structure element.

  4. 48 CFR 9905.501 - Cost accounting standard-consistency in estimating, accumulating and reporting costs by...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ...-consistency in estimating, accumulating and reporting costs by educational institutions. 9905.501 Section 9905... PROCUREMENT POLICY, OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET PROCUREMENT PRACTICES AND COST ACCOUNTING STANDARDS COST ACCOUNTING STANDARDS FOR EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS 9905.501 Cost accounting standard—consistency in...

  5. Dairy farm cost efficiency in leading milk-producing regions in Poland.

    PubMed

    Sobczyński, T; Klepacka, A M; Revoredo-Giha, C; Florkowski, W J

    2015-12-01

    This paper examines the cost efficiency of dairy farms in 2 important regions of commercial milk production in Poland (i.e., Wielkopolskie and Podlaskie). Both regions gained importance following the market-driven resource allocation mechanism adopted after Poland's transition to the market economy in 1989 and accession to the European Union (EU) in 2004. The elimination of the dairy quota system in the EU in 2015 offers new expansion opportunities. The analysis of trends in cow numbers, milk production, and yield per cow shows different patterns of expansion of the dairy sector in the 2 regions. We selected dairy farm data from the Farm Accounts Data Network database for both regions and applied the cost frontier estimation model to calculate the relative cost-efficiency index for the period 2004 to 2009. The indexes compare each farm in the sample to the most efficient dairy farm in each region separately. Additionally, the top 5% of dairy farms with the highest relative cost efficiency index from each region were compared in terms of production costs with published results from a study using the representative farm approach. The comparison of results from 2 different studies permits a conclusion that Wielkopolskie and Podlaskie dairy farms are able to compete with farms from the 4 largest milk-producing countries in the EU. Although both regions can improve yields per cow, especially Podlaskie, both regions are likely to take advantage of the expansion opportunities offered by the 2015 termination of the milk quota system.

  6. Notification: Preliminary Research: Review of Independent Government Cost Estimates and Indirect Costs for EPA’s Interagency Agreements

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Project #OA-FY14-0130, February 11, 2014. The EPA OIG plans to begin preliminary research of the independent government cost estimates and indirect costs for the EPA's funds-in interagency agreements.

  7. The use of parametric cost estimating relationships for transport aircraft systems in establishing initial Design to Cost Targets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beltramo, M. N.; Anderson, J. L.

    1977-01-01

    This paper provides a brief overview of Design to Cost (DTC). Problems inherent in attempting to estimate costs are discussed, along with techniques and types of models that have been developed to estimate aircraft costs. A set of cost estimating relationships that estimate the total production cost of commercial and military transport aircraft at the systems level is presented and the manner in which these equations might be used effectively in developing initial DTC targets is indicated. The principal point made in this paper is that, by using a disagregated set of equations to estimate transport aircraft costs at the systems level, reasonably accurate preliminary cost estimates may be achieved. These estimates may serve directly as initial DTC targets, or adjustments may be made to the estimates obtained for some of the systems to estimate the production cost impact of alternative designs or manufacturing technologies. The relative ease by which estimates may be made with this model, the flexibility it provides by being disaggregated, and the accuracy of the estimates it provides make it a unique and useful tool in establishing initial DTC targets.

  8. Software cost/resource modeling: Deep space network software cost estimation model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tausworthe, R. J.

    1980-01-01

    A parametric software cost estimation model prepared for JPL deep space network (DSN) data systems implementation tasks is presented. The resource estimation model incorporates principles and data from a number of existing models, such as those of the General Research Corporation, Doty Associates, IBM (Walston-Felix), Rome Air Force Development Center, University of Maryland, and Rayleigh-Norden-Putnam. The model calibrates task magnitude and difficulty, development environment, and software technology effects through prompted responses to a set of approximately 50 questions. Parameters in the model are adjusted to fit JPL software lifecycle statistics. The estimation model output scales a standard DSN work breakdown structure skeleton, which is then input to a PERT/CPM system, producing a detailed schedule and resource budget for the project being planned.

  9. Regional Variation of Cost of Care in the Last 12 Months of Life in Switzerland

    PubMed Central

    Luta, Xhyljeta; Maessen, Maud; Stuck, Andreas E.; Berlin, Claudia; Schmidlin, Kurt; Reich, Oliver; von Wyl, Viktor; Goodman, David C.; Egger, Matthias; Zwahlen, Marcel; Clough-Gorr, Kerri M.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Health care spending increases sharply at the end of life. Little is known about variation of cost of end of life care between regions and the drivers of such variation. We studied small-area patterns of cost of care in the last year of life in Switzerland. Methods: We used mandatory health insurance claims data of individuals who died between 2008 and 2010 to derive cost of care. We used multilevel regression models to estimate differences in costs across 564 regions of place of residence, nested within 71 hospital service areas. We examined to what extent variation was explained by characteristics of individuals and regions, including measures of health care supply. Results: The study population consisted of 113,277 individuals. The mean cost of care during last year of life was 32.5k (thousand) Swiss Francs per person (SD=33.2k). Cost differed substantially between regions after adjustment for patient age, sex, and cause of death. Variance was reduced by 52%–95% when we added individual and regional characteristics, with a strong effect of language region. Measures of supply of care did not show associations with costs. Remaining between and within hospital service area variations were most pronounced for older females and least for younger individuals. Conclusions: In Switzerland, small-area analysis revealed variation of cost of care during the last year of life according to linguistic regions and unexplained regional differences for older women. Cultural factors contribute to the delivery and utilization of health care during the last months of life and should be considered by policy makers. PMID:27579912

  10. Space transfer vehicle concepts and requirements study. Volume 3, book 1: Program cost estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peffley, Al F.

    1991-01-01

    The Space Transfer Vehicle (STV) Concepts and Requirements Study cost estimate and program planning analysis is presented. The cost estimating technique used to support STV system, subsystem, and component cost analysis is a mixture of parametric cost estimating and selective cost analogy approaches. The parametric cost analysis is aimed at developing cost-effective aerobrake, crew module, tank module, and lander designs with the parametric cost estimates data. This is accomplished using cost as a design parameter in an iterative process with conceptual design input information. The parametric estimating approach segregates costs by major program life cycle phase (development, production, integration, and launch support). These phases are further broken out into major hardware subsystems, software functions, and tasks according to the STV preliminary program work breakdown structure (WBS). The WBS is defined to a low enough level of detail by the study team to highlight STV system cost drivers. This level of cost visibility provided the basis for cost sensitivity analysis against various design approaches aimed at achieving a cost-effective design. The cost approach, methodology, and rationale are described. A chronological record of the interim review material relating to cost analysis is included along with a brief summary of the study contract tasks accomplished during that period of review and the key conclusions or observations identified that relate to STV program cost estimates. The STV life cycle costs are estimated on the proprietary parametric cost model (PCM) with inputs organized by a project WBS. Preliminary life cycle schedules are also included.

  11. Determining Usability Versus Cost and Yields of a Regional Transport

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gvozdenovic, Slobodan

    1999-01-01

    Regional transports are designed to operate on air networks having the basic characteristics of short trip distances and low density passengers/cargo, i.e. small numbers of passengers per flight. Regional transports passenger capacity is from 10 to 100 seats and operate on routes from 350 to 1000 nautical miles (nm). In order to meet passenger requirements providing low fares and high or required number of frequencies, airlines must constantly monitor operational costs and keep them low. It is obvious that costs of operating aircraft must be lower than yield obtained by transporting passengers and cargo. The requirement to achieve favorable yield/cost ratio must provide the answer to the question of which aircraft will best meet a specific air network (Simpson, 1972). An air network is defined by the number of services, the trip distance of each service, and the number of flights (frequencies) per day and week.

  12. Management Models and Cost Analysis for Regional Special Education Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Connors, Eugene T.

    The implementation of the Education for All Handicapped Children Act (PL 94-142) has placed an enormous financial burden on local districts. In order to create special education programs that combine cost effectiveness and high quality, a regional model has been developed. The Therapeutic Residential Experience for Emotional Stability (TREES) in…

  13. FASTSim: A Model to Estimate Vehicle Efficiency, Cost and Performance

    SciTech Connect

    Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Wang, L.; Wood, E.; Lopp, S.; Ramroth, L.

    2015-05-04

    The Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) is a high-level advanced vehicle powertrain systems analysis tool supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. FASTSim provides a quick and simple approach to compare powertrains and estimate the impact of technology improvements on light- and heavy-duty vehicle efficiency, performance, cost, and battery batches of real-world drive cycles. FASTSim’s calculation framework and balance among detail, accuracy, and speed enable it to simulate thousands of driven miles in minutes. The key components and vehicle outputs have been validated by comparing the model outputs to test data for many different vehicles to provide confidence in the results. A graphical user interface makes FASTSim easy and efficient to use. FASTSim is freely available for download from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s website (see www.nrel.gov/fastsim).

  14. Global cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation.

    PubMed

    Kindermann, Georg; Obersteiner, Michael; Sohngen, Brent; Sathaye, Jayant; Andrasko, Kenneth; Rametsteiner, Ewald; Schlamadinger, Bernhard; Wunder, Sven; Beach, Robert

    2008-07-29

    Tropical deforestation is estimated to cause about one-quarter of anthropogenic carbon emissions, loss of biodiversity, and other environmental services. United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change talks are now considering mechanisms for avoiding deforestation (AD), but the economic potential of AD has yet to be addressed. We use three economic models of global land use and management to analyze the potential contribution of AD activities to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. AD activities are found to be a competitive, low-cost abatement option. A program providing a 10% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 0.3-0.6 Gt (1 Gt = 1 x 10(5) g) CO(2).yr(-1) in emission reductions and would require $0.4 billion to $1.7 billion.yr(-1) for 30 years. A 50% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 1.5-2.7 Gt CO(2).yr(-1) in emission reductions and would require $17.2 billion to $28.0 billion.yr(-1). Finally, some caveats to the analysis that could increase costs of AD programs are described.

  15. Advanced Composite Cost Estimating Manual. Volume II. Appendix

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1976-08-01

    0~~~~~~; - -m- O1 .,a 0 j in N j "s w f 0 0 Av .s 00 4 164 "i’ 3. -%’ 1*4*J. - N w 0-uo 16 fo moNi o w w -Q * * 0 h" v 0 a rq)E 4.1 w 0 -0 S p4 4 4...REkMOVE CHAIS 0.00J32 06COC43 I I 34 OPIN LC-OR 0*01402 o.ci’r2 I 31 PELEA *. 1.L. L JAO4 000035 22 36 RILtLA5E VAC. LINES 0.0031 !I kfMOVF lPAIk Ptk OVL...0 - NO 1- YES Ia YES INSERTS: 0 - NO 1 - YES 59 a *1 ACCEM-S COST PROJECTION CAM I UNIT MNER~aJboo~ AVE , LOT SIZiTYPE OF ESTIMATE UNIT COST aL. 21

  16. Life Cycle Cost Estimate of LSD(X)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-06-01

    for 100 SWBS Materiel Cost ............................44  Figure 11.  Details of Regression Model for 200 SWBS Materiel Cost...45  Figure 12.  Details of Regression Model for 300 SWBS Materiel Cost ............................46  Figure 13.  Details of Regression Model for...400 SWBS Materiel Cost ............................47  Figure 14.  Details of Regression Model for 500 SWBS Materiel Cost

  17. 48 CFR 1852.216-84 - Estimated cost and incentive fee.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... the following clause: Estimated Cost and Incentive Fee (OCT 1996) The target cost of this contract is $___. The target fee of this contract is $___. The total target cost and target fee as contemplated by the... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Estimated cost...

  18. Taking the Evolutionary Road to Developing an In-House Cost Estimate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jacintho, David; Esker, Lind; Herman, Frank; Lavaque, Rodolfo; Regardie, Myma

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the process and some of the problems and challenges of developing an In-House Cost Estimate (IHCE). Using as an example the Space Network Ground Segment Sustainment (SGSS) project, the presentation reviews the phases for developing a Cost estimate within the project to estimate government and contractor project costs to support a budget request.

  19. Estimating the costs of the vaccine supply chain and service delivery for selected districts in Kenya and Tanzania.

    PubMed

    Mvundura, Mercy; Lorenson, Kristina; Chweya, Amos; Kigadye, Rosemary; Bartholomew, Kathryn; Makame, Mohammed; Lennon, T Patrick; Mwangi, Steven; Kirika, Lydia; Kamau, Peter; Otieno, Abner; Murunga, Peninah; Omurwa, Tom; Dafrossa, Lyimo; Kristensen, Debra

    2015-05-28

    Having data on the costs of the immunization system can provide decision-makers with information to benchmark the costs when evaluating the impact of new technologies or programmatic innovations. This paper estimated the supply chain and immunization service delivery costs and cost per dose in selected districts in Kenya and Tanzania. We also present operational data describing the supply chain and service delivery points (SDPs). To estimate the supply chain costs, we collected resource-use data for the cold chain, distribution system, and health worker time and per diems paid. We also estimated the service delivery costs, which included the time cost of health workers to provide immunization services, and per diems and transport costs for outreach sessions. Data on the annual quantities of vaccines distributed to each facility, and the occurrence and duration of stockouts were collected from stock registers. These data were collected from the national store, 2 regional and 4 district stores, and 12 SDPs in each country for 2012. Cost per dose for the supply chain and immunization service delivery were estimated. The average annual costs per dose at the SDPs were $0.34 (standard deviation (s.d.) $0.18) for Kenya when including only the vaccine supply chain costs, and $1.33 (s.d. $0.82) when including immunization service delivery costs. In Tanzania, these costs were $0.67 (s.d. $0.35) and $2.82 (s.d. $1.64), respectively. Both countries experienced vaccine stockouts in 2012, bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccine being more likely to be stocked out in Kenya, and oral poliovirus vaccine in Tanzania. When stockouts happened, they usually lasted for at least one month. Tanzania made investments in 2011 in preparation for planned vaccine introductions, and their supply chain cost per dose is expected to decline with the new vaccine introductions. Immunization service delivery costs are a significant portion of the total costs at the SDPs.

  20. Innovation in the pharmaceutical industry: New estimates of R&D costs.

    PubMed

    DiMasi, Joseph A; Grabowski, Henry G; Hansen, Ronald W

    2016-05-01

    The research and development costs of 106 randomly selected new drugs were obtained from a survey of 10 pharmaceutical firms. These data were used to estimate the average pre-tax cost of new drug and biologics development. The costs of compounds abandoned during testing were linked to the costs of compounds that obtained marketing approval. The estimated average out-of-pocket cost per approved new compound is $1395 million (2013 dollars). Capitalizing out-of-pocket costs to the point of marketing approval at a real discount rate of 10.5% yields a total pre-approval cost estimate of $2558 million (2013 dollars). When compared to the results of the previous study in this series, total capitalized costs were shown to have increased at an annual rate of 8.5% above general price inflation. Adding an estimate of post-approval R&D costs increases the cost estimate to $2870 million (2013 dollars).

  1. Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

    1976-01-01

    A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

  2. Estimating Well Costs for Enhanced Geothermal System Applications

    SciTech Connect

    K. K. Bloomfield; P. T. Laney

    2005-08-01

    The objective of the work reported was to investigate the costs of drilling and completing wells and to relate those costs to the economic viability of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). This is part of a larger parametric study of major cost components in an EGS. The possibility of improving the economics of EGS can be determined by analyzing the major cost components of the system, which include well drilling and completion. Determining what costs in developing an EGS are most sensitive will determine the areas of research to reduce those costs. The results of the well cost analysis will help determine the cost of a well for EGS development.

  3. IDC reengineering Phase 2 & 3 US industry standard cost estimate summary

    SciTech Connect

    Harris, James M.; Huelskamp, Robert M.

    2015-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has prepared a ROM cost estimate for budgetary planning for the IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 effort, using a commercial software cost estimation tool calibrated to US industry performance parameters. This is not a cost estimate for Sandia to perform the project. This report provides the ROM cost estimate and describes the methodology, assumptions, and cost model details used to create the ROM cost estimate. ROM Cost Estimate Disclaimer Contained herein is a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate that has been provided to enable initial planning for this proposed project. This ROM cost estimate is submitted to facilitate informal discussions in relation to this project and is NOT intended to commit Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) or its resources. Furthermore, as a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC), Sandia must be compliant with the Anti-Deficiency Act and operate on a full-cost recovery basis. Therefore, while Sandia, in conjunction with the Sponsor, will use best judgment to execute work and to address the highest risks and most important issues in order to effectively manage within cost constraints, this ROM estimate and any subsequent approved cost estimates are on a 'full-cost recovery' basis. Thus, work can neither commence nor continue unless adequate funding has been accepted and certified by DOE.

  4. Determining Usability Versus Cost and Yields of a Regional Transport

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gvozdenovic, Slobodan

    1999-01-01

    Regional transports are designed to operate on air networks having the basic characteristics of short trip distances and low density passengers/cargo, i.e. small numbers of passengers per flight. Regional transports passenger capacity is from 10 to 100 seats and operate on routes from 350 to 1000 nautical miles (nm). An air network operated by regional transports has the following characteristics: (1) connecting regional centers; (2) operating on low density passengers/cargo flow services with minimum two frequencies per day; (3) operating on high density passengers/cargo flow with more than two frequencies per day; and (4) operating supplemental services whenever market demands in order to help bigger capacity aircraft already operating the same routes. In order to meet passenger requirements providing low fares and high or required number of frequencies, airlines must constantly monitor operational costs and keep them low. It is obvious that costs of operating aircraft must be lower than yield obtained by transporting passengers and cargo. The requirement to achieve favorable yield/cost ratio must provide the answer to the question of which aircraft will best meet a specific air network. An air network is defined by the number of services, the trip distance of each service, and the number of flights (frequencies) per day and week.

  5. Image Location Estimation by Salient Region Matching.

    PubMed

    Qian, Xueming; Zhao, Yisi; Han, Junwei

    2015-11-01

    Nowadays, locations of images have been widely used in many application scenarios for large geo-tagged image corpora. As to images which are not geographically tagged, we estimate their locations with the help of the large geo-tagged image set by content-based image retrieval. In this paper, we exploit spatial information of useful visual words to improve image location estimation (or content-based image retrieval performances). We proposed to generate visual word groups by mean-shift clustering. To improve the retrieval performance, spatial constraint is utilized to code the relative position of visual words. We proposed to generate a position descriptor for each visual word and build fast indexing structure for visual word groups. Experiments show the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

  6. Developing a Cost Model and Methodology to Estimate Capital Costs for Thermal Energy Storage

    SciTech Connect

    Glatzmaier, G.

    2011-12-01

    This report provides an update on the previous cost model for thermal energy storage (TES) systems. The update allows NREL to estimate the costs of such systems that are compatible with the higher operating temperatures associated with advanced power cycles. The goal of the Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Program is to develop solar technologies that can make a significant contribution to the United States domestic energy supply. The recent DOE SunShot Initiative sets a very aggressive cost goal to reach a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of 6 cents/kWh by 2020 with no incentives or credits for all solar-to-electricity technologies.1 As this goal is reached, the share of utility power generation that is provided by renewable energy sources is expected to increase dramatically. Because Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is currently the only renewable technology that is capable of integrating cost-effective energy storage, it is positioned to play a key role in providing renewable, dispatchable power to utilities as the share of power generation from renewable sources increases. Because of this role, future CSP plants will likely have as much as 15 hours of Thermal Energy Storage (TES) included in their design and operation. As such, the cost and performance of the TES system is critical to meeting the SunShot goal for solar technologies. The cost of electricity from a CSP plant depends strongly on its overall efficiency, which is a product of two components - the collection and conversion efficiencies. The collection efficiency determines the portion of incident solar energy that is captured as high-temperature thermal energy. The conversion efficiency determines the portion of thermal energy that is converted to electricity. The operating temperature at which the overall efficiency reaches its maximum depends on many factors, including material properties of the CSP plant components. Increasing the operating temperature of the power generation

  7. Cost estimation for the active debris removal of multiple priority targets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braun, Vitali; Wiedemann, Carsten; Schulz, Eugen

    The increasing number of space debris objects, especially in distinct low Earth orbit (LEO) altitudes between 600 and 1000 km, leads to an increase in the potential collision risk between the objects and threatens active satellites in that region. Several recent studies show that active debris removal (ADR) has to be performed in order to prevent a collisional cascading effect, also known as the Kessler syndrome. In order to stabilize the population growth in the critical LEO region, a removal of five prioritized objects per year has been recognized as a significant figure. Various proposals are addressing the technical issues for ADR missions, including the de-orbiting of objects by means of a service satellite using a chemical or an electric propulsion system. The servicer would rendezvous with a preselected target, perform a docking maneuver and then provide a de-orbit burn to transfer the target on a trajectory where it re-enters the Earth’s atmosphere within a given time frame. In this paper the technical aspects are complemented by a cost estimation model, focusing on multi target missions, which are based on a service satellite capable of de-orbiting more than one target within a single mission. The cost model for ADR includes initial development cost, production cost, launch cost and operation cost as well as the modelling of the propulsion system of the servicer. Therefore, different scenarios are defined for chemical and electric propulsion systems as applied to multi target missions, based on a literature review of concepts currently being under discussion. The costs of multi target missions are compared to a scenario where only one target is removed. Also, the results allow to determine an optimum number of objects to be removed per mission and provide numbers which can be used in future studies, e.g. those related to ADR cost and benefit analyses.

  8. Breckinridge Project, initial effort. Report IX. Operating cost estimate

    SciTech Connect

    1982-01-01

    Operating costs are normally broken into three major categories: variable costs including raw materials, annual catalyst and chemicals, and utilities; semi-variable costs including labor and labor related cost; and fixed or capital related charges. The raw materials and utilities costs are proportional to production; however, a small component of utilities cost is independent of production. The catalyst and chemicals costs are also normally proportional to production. Semi-variable costs include direct labor, maintenance labor, labor supervision, contract maintenance, maintenance materials, payroll overheads, operation supplies, and general overhead and administration. Fixed costs include local taxes, insurance and the time value of the capital investment. The latter charge often includes the investor's anticipated return on investment. In determining operating costs for financial analysis, return on investment (ROI) and depreciation are not treated as cash operating costs. These costs are developed in the financial analysis; the annual operating cost determined here omits ROI and depreciation. Project Annual Operating Costs are summarized in Table 1. Detailed supporting information for the cost elements listed below is included in the following sections: Electrical, catalyst and chemicals, and salaries and wages.

  9. The cost implications of participatory research. Experience of a health services review in a rural region in South Africa

    PubMed

    Doherty; Price

    1998-03-01

    OBJECTIVES: The study objectives were to estimate the total costs incurred by a comprehensive review of primary health care services in a rural region in South Africa, and to determine which of these costs were incurred because of the participatory research techniques employed by the review. DESIGN: The costing study estimated the direct and indirect costs of each component of the review in order to determine total costs. Costs that were linked to participatory research activities were aggregated separately. SETTING: The review that was costed was conducted in an area that included the former 'homeland' KaNgwane and the adjacent areas of 'white' South Africa, in part of what is now known as Mpumalanga Province. SUBJECTS: Not relevant. OUTCOME MEASURES: Direct, indirect, total, research and participation costs were used as outcome measures. RESULTS: Expenditure generated by participatory research techniques was estimated to be almost 14% of the total (direct and indirect) costs. CONCLUSIONS: Despite these costs, participatory research techniques are invaluable in terms of the many benefits they have for a research project. However, because of these costs, it is important that the financing of participatory research should be carefully planned. Projects must budget for the direct costs of participatory techniques, participating organisations and individuals must be committed to bearing the indirect costs of participation, and, increasingly, funders must consider funding these indirect costs. This is important in the South African situation, where public health research relies increasingly on the participation of relevant stakeholders.

  10. Challenges from Variation across Regions in Cost Effectiveness Analysis in Multi-Regional Clinical Trials

    PubMed Central

    Chu, Yunbo; Dai, Luyan; Qi, Sheng; Smith, Matthew Lee; Huang, Hui; Li, Yang; Shen, Ye

    2016-01-01

    Economic evaluation in the form of cost-effectiveness analysis has become a popular means to inform decisions in healthcare. With multi-regional clinical trials in a global development program becoming a new venue for drug efficacy testing in recent decades, questions in methods for cost-effectiveness analysis in the multi-regional clinical trials setting also emerge. This paper addresses some challenges from variation across regions in cost effectiveness analysis in multi-regional clinical trials. Several discussion points are raised for further attention and a multi-regional clinical trial example is presented to illustrate the implications in industrial application. A general message is delivered to call for a depth discussion by all stakeholders to reach an agreement on a good practice in cost-effectiveness analysis in the multi-regional clinical trials. Meanwhile, we recommend an additional consideration of cost-effectiveness analysis results based on the clinical evidence from a certain homogeneous population as sensitivity or scenario analysis upon data availability. PMID:27840606

  11. Endometriosis in Italy: from cost estimates to new medical treatment.

    PubMed

    Luisi, Stefano; Lazzeri, Lucia; Ciani, Valentina; Petraglia, Felice

    2009-11-01

    Endometriosis is defined as the presence of endometrial-like tissue outside the uterus, which induced a chronic inflammatory reaction. The data collected from Italy showed that around 3 million women are affected by endoemtriosis and the condition was predominantly found in women of reproductive age (50% of women were in the 29-39 age range), only 25% of women were asymptomatic. The associated symptoms can create an impact in general physical, mental, and social well-being. Endometriosis is associated with severe dysmenorrhea, deep dyspareunia, chronic pelvic pain, ovulation pain, cyclical, or perimenstrual symptoms, with or without abnormal bleeding, infertility, and chronic fatigue. The annual cost for hospital admission can be estimated to be in a total around 54 million euros. The average time for right diagnosis is around 9 years still today and it follows a long and expensive diagnostic search. Therapies can be useful to relieve and sometimes solve the symptoms, encourage fertility, eliminate endometrial lesions, and restore the anatomy of the pelvis. For medical therapy, several different preparations (oral contraceptives, progestogenics, gestrinone, danazol, and GnRHa) and new options (GnRH antagonists, aromatase inhibitors, estrogen receptor beta agoinist, progesterone receptor modulators, angiogenesis inhibitors, and COX-2 selective inhibitors) are available.

  12. Different approaches to estimating transition costs in the electric- utility industry

    SciTech Connect

    Baxter, L.W.

    1995-10-01

    The term ``transition costs`` describes the potential revenue shortfall (or welfare loss) a utility (or other actor) may experience through government-initiated deregulation of electricity generation. The potential for transition costs arises whenever a regulated industry is subject to competitive market forces as a result of explicit government action. Federal and state proposals to deregulate electricity generation sparked a national debate on transition costs in the electric-utility industry. Industry-wide transition cost estimates range from about $20 billion to $500 billion. Such disparate estimates raise important questions on estimation methods for decision makers. This report examines different approaches to estimating transition costs. The study has three objectives. First, we discuss the concept of transition cost. Second, we identify the major cost categories included in transition cost estimates and summarize the current debate on which specific costs are appropriately included in these estimates. Finally, we identify general and specific estimation approaches and assess their strengths and weaknesses. We relied primarily on the evidentiary records established at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the California Public Utilities Commission to identify major cost categories and specific estimation approaches. We also contacted regulatory commission staffs in ten states to ascertain estimation activities in each of these states. We refined a classification framework to describe and assess general estimation options. We subsequently developed and applied criteria to describe and assess specific estimation approaches proposed by federal regulators, state regulators, utilities, independent power companies, and consultants.

  13. Disaster warning system study summary. [cost estimates using NOAA satellites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leroy, B. F.; Maloy, J. E.; Braley, R. C.; Provencher, C. E.; Schumaker, H. A.; Valgora, M. E.

    1977-01-01

    A conceptual satellite system to replace or complement NOAA's data collection, internal communications, and public information dissemination systems for the mid-1980's was defined. Program cost and cost sensitivity to variations in communications functions are analyzed.

  14. What Would It Cost to Coach Every New Principal? An Estimate Using Statewide Personnel Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lochmiller, Chad R.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, I use Levin and McEwan's (2001) cost feasibility approach and personnel data obtained from the Superintendent of Public Instruction to estimate the cost of providing coaching support to every newly hired principal in Washington State. Based on this descriptive analysis, I estimate that the cost to provide leadership coaching to…

  15. A Robust Design Approach to Cost Estimation: Solar Energy for Marine Corps Expeditionary Operations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-07-14

    Resources Energy Technology Basics Electricity Grid Basics Costs Renewable Technologies Biomass Geothermal Solar Concentrators Solar Photovoltaics Wind...SPONSORED REPORT SERIES A Robust Design Approach to Cost Estimation: Solar Energy for Marine Corps Expeditionary Operations 14 July 2014...SUBTITLE A Robust Design Approach to Cost Estimation: Solar Energy for Marine Corps Expeditionary Operations 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c

  16. Regional estimation of current and future forest biomass.

    PubMed

    Mickler, R A; Earnhardt, T S; Moore, J A

    2002-01-01

    The 90,674 wildland fires that burned 2.9 million ha at an estimated suppression cost of $1.6 billion in the United States during the 2000 fire season demonstrated that forest fuel loading has become a hazard to life, property, and ecosystem health as a result of past fire exclusion policies and practices. The fire regime at any given location in these regions is a result of complex interactions between forest biomass, topography, ignitions, and weather. Forest structure and biomass are important aspects in determining current and future fire regimes. Efforts to quantify live and dead forest biomass at the local to regional scale has been hindered by the uncertainty surrounding the measurement and modeling of forest ecosystem processes and fluxes. The interaction of elevated CO2 with climate, soil nutrients, and other forest management factors that affect forest growth and fuel loading will play a major role in determining future forest stand growth and the distribution of species across the southern United States. The use of satellite image analysis has been tested for timely and accurate measurement of spatially explicit land use change and is well suited for use in inventory and monitoring of forest carbon. The incorporation of Landsat Thematic Mapper data coupled with a physiologically based productivity model (PnET), soil water holding capacity, and historic and projected climatic data provides an opportunity to enhance field plot based forest inventory and monitoring methodologies. We use periodic forest inventory data from the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) project to obtain estimates of forest area and type to generate estimates of carbon storage for evergreen, deciduous, and mixed forest classes for use in an assessment of remotely sensed forest cover at the regional scale for the southern United States. The displays of net primary productivity (NPP) generated from the PnET model show areas of high and low forest carbon storage

  17. Estimating the Cost of Standardized Student Testing in the United States.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Phelps, Richard P.

    2000-01-01

    Describes and contrasts different methods of estimating costs of standardized testing. Using a cost-accounting approach, compares gross and marginal costs and considers testing objects (test materials and services, personnel and student time, and administrative/building overhead). Social marginal costs of replacing existing tests with a national…

  18. IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) Cost Estimate Summary (Leveraged NDC Case).

    SciTech Connect

    Harris, James M.; Prescott, Ryan; Dawson, Jericah M.; Huelskamp, Robert M.

    2014-11-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has prepared a ROM cost estimate for budgetary planning for the IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 effort, based on leveraging a fully funded, Sandia executed NDC Modernization project. This report provides the ROM cost estimate and describes the methodology, assumptions, and cost model details used to create the ROM cost estimate. ROM Cost Estimate Disclaimer Contained herein is a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate that has been provided to enable initial planning for this proposed project. This ROM cost estimate is submitted to facilitate informal discussions in relation to this project and is NOT intended to commit Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) or its resources. Furthermore, as a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC), Sandia must be compliant with the Anti-Deficiency Act and operate on a full-cost recovery basis. Therefore, while Sandia, in conjunction with the Sponsor, will use best judgment to execute work and to address the highest risks and most important issues in order to effectively manage within cost constraints, this ROM estimate and any subsequent approved cost estimates are on a 'full-cost recovery' basis. Thus, work can neither commence nor continue unless adequate funding has been accepted and certified by DOE.

  19. Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Model; Final report: Documentation of waste management process, development of Cost Estimation Model, and model reference manual

    SciTech Connect

    Matysiak, L.M.; Burns, M.L.

    1994-03-01

    This final report completes the Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Project, and includes the documentation of the waste management processes at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for hazardous, mixed, low-level radioactive solid and transuranic waste, development of the cost estimation model and a user reference manual. The ultimate goal of this effort was to develop an estimate of the life cycle costs for the aforementioned waste types. The Cost Estimation Model is a tool that can be used to calculate the costs of waste management at LANL for the aforementioned waste types, under several different scenarios. Each waste category at LANL is managed in a separate fashion, according to Department of Energy requirements and state and federal regulations. The cost of the waste management process for each waste category has not previously been well documented. In particular, the costs associated with the handling, treatment and storage of the waste have not been well understood. It is anticipated that greater knowledge of these costs will encourage waste generators at the Laboratory to apply waste minimization techniques to current operations. Expected benefits of waste minimization are a reduction in waste volume, decrease in liability and lower waste management costs.

  20. Estimating the direct and indirect costs associated with Parkinson's disease.

    PubMed

    Rodríguez-Blázquez, Carmen; Forjaz, Maria João; Lizán, Luis; Paz, Silvia; Martínez-Martín, Pablo

    2015-01-01

    Parkinson's disease (PD) is a progressive, neurodegenerative disorder whose symptoms and manifestations greatly deteriorate the health, functional status and quality of life of patients, has severe consequences on their families and caregivers and supposes a challenge for the healthcare system and society. The aim of this paper is to comprehensively and descriptively review studies on the economic impact of the disease and interventions, analyzing major contributing factors to direct and indirect costs in PD. Cost-of-illness studies have shown that costs of PD are high, mainly due to drug, hospitalization and productivity loss, and tend to increase as the disease progresses. Studies on PD treatment have suggested that therapies for advanced PD (levodopa/carbidopa intestinal gel and apomorphine) and surgical procedures are cost-effective and cost saving, despite their high expenditures; however, further research such as on the economic impact of non-motor manifestations or on the cost-effectiveness of non-medical interventions is still needed.

  1. Laboratory demonstration of aircraft estimation using low-cost sensors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sorensen, J. A.

    1978-01-01

    Four nonlinear state estimators were devised which provide techniques for obtaining the angular orientation (attitude) of the aircraft. An extensive FORTRAN computer program was developed to demonstrate and evaluate the estimators by using recorded flight test data. This program simulates the estimator operation, and it compares the state estimates with actual state measurements. The program was used to evaluate the state estimators with data recorded on the NASA Ames CV-990 and CESSNA 402B aircraft. A preliminary assessment was made of the memory, word length, and timing requirements for implementing the selected state estimator on a typical microcomputer.

  2. Lunar base scenario cost estimates: Lunar base systems study task 6.1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    The projected development and production costs of each of the Lunar Base's systems are described and unit costs are estimated for transporting the systems to the lunar surface and for setting up the system.

  3. Some regional costs of a synthetic fuel industry: The case of illinois

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Attanasi, E.D.; Green, E.K.

    1981-01-01

    The Federal Government's efforts to induce development of a coal-based synthetic fuel industry include direct subsidies, tax concessions, and assurances that it will purchase the industry's output, even if above the market price. In this note it is argued that these subsidies will enable this industry to secure a region's largest and lowest-cost coal deposits and that the costs imposed on other coal users will be substantial. Moreover, because the lowest-cost coal deposits will be committed to synthetic fuels production regardless of the industry's commercial viability, distortions in regional coal markets will develop. If economic efficiency requires that the price of the resource reflect its replacement value, then a State government is justified in imposing a tax on coal destined for subsidized synthetic fuel plants. Amounts of such a tax, based on the higher costs of coal that must be accepted by other users as the result of the subsidized synthetic fuel plants' preempting the largest and lowest-cost deposits, are estimated for the case of Illinois strippable coal. ?? 1981 Annals of Regional Science.

  4. Improved rapid magnitude estimation for a community-based, low-cost MEMS accelerometer network

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chung, Angela I.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Kaiser, Anna E.; Christensen, Carl M.; Yildirim, Battalgazi; Lawrence, Jesse F.

    2015-01-01

    Immediately following the Mw 7.2 Darfield, New Zealand, earthquake, over 180 Quake‐Catcher Network (QCN) low‐cost micro‐electro‐mechanical systems accelerometers were deployed in the Canterbury region. Using data recorded by this dense network from 2010 to 2013, we significantly improved the QCN rapid magnitude estimation relationship. The previous scaling relationship (Lawrence et al., 2014) did not accurately estimate the magnitudes of nearby (<35  km) events. The new scaling relationship estimates earthquake magnitudes within 1 magnitude unit of the GNS Science GeoNet earthquake catalog magnitudes for 99% of the events tested, within 0.5 magnitude units for 90% of the events, and within 0.25 magnitude units for 57% of the events. These magnitudes are reliably estimated within 3 s of the initial trigger recorded on at least seven stations. In this report, we present the methods used to calculate a new scaling relationship and demonstrate the accuracy of the revised magnitude estimates using a program that is able to retrospectively estimate event magnitudes using archived data.

  5. Sample representativeness: A must for reliable regional lake condition estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Peterson, S.A.; Urquhart, N.S.; Welch, E.B.

    1999-05-15

    Reliable environmental resource estimates are essential to informed regional scale decisions regarding protection, restoration, and enhancement of natural resources. Reliable estimates depend on objective and representative sampling. Probability-based sampling meets these requirements and provides accuracy estimates. Non-probability-based sampling often is biased, thus less reliable, and potentially misleading. The authors compare results from a probability- and a non-probability-based Secchi transparency sampling of lakes in the northeastern geographic region of the United States and its three primary ecoregions. Results from these samplings are compared on the basis of sample representativeness relative to the regional lake population and subsequent reliability of lake condition estimates. Statistically derived sampling indicates the northeast lake population median lake size to be about 9.5 ({+-}2.3) ha and the Secchi disk transparency (SDT) to be about 2.4 ({+-}0.4) m. On the basis of judgment sampling estimates, the median SDT for lakes in the same area would be 4.2 m. However, only about 15% of the regional lake population based on statistically designed sampling estimates has a SDT {ge} 4.2 m. Estimate unreliability of this magnitude can have profound effects on lake management decisions. Thus, regional extrapolation of non-probability-based sampling results should be avoided.

  6. An Analysis of the Cost Estimating Process in Air Force Research and Development Laboratories.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-09-01

    4. TITLE (and Subtitle) S. TYPE Of REPORT & PERIOO COvEREO AN ANALYSIS OF THE COST ESTIMATING PROCESS IN AIR FORCE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT Master’s...final typed thesis. Her efficiency and professionalism was unexcelled. Finally, very special thanks go to my children, Chris and Brian, and especially my...42 3-6 Computer Costs - Estimating Methods. . 44 3-7 Type of Work Unit Versus Estimating Methods Used ... ............. .47 3-8 Cost Variance Between

  7. Defense Contractor’s Cost Estimating Methods for State-of-the-Art Extensions.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-12-01

    framework in which to place empirical measures of technological change, hedonic price indices, and cost estimating relationships. In this study they...importance and magnitude is software cost estimating, which experts like Elmer Branyan from General Electric predict will account for eighty-five percent...developed by RCA 9 ( Price -S model) and Hughes Aircraft (developed by Dr. Jensen). Hardware cost estimation for initial developed relies on three

  8. COST ESTIMATION MODELS FOR DRINKING WATER TREATMENT UNIT PROCESSES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Cost models for unit processes typically utilized in a conventional water treatment plant and in package treatment plant technology are compiled in this paper. The cost curves are represented as a function of specified design parameters and are categorized into four major catego...

  9. Improving Space Project Cost Estimating with Engineering Management Variables

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamaker, Joseph W.; Roth, Axel (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Current space project cost models attempt to predict space flight project cost via regression equations, which relate the cost of projects to technical performance metrics (e.g. weight, thrust, power, pointing accuracy, etc.). This paper examines the introduction of engineering management parameters to the set of explanatory variables. A number of specific engineering management variables are considered and exploratory regression analysis is performed to determine if there is statistical evidence for cost effects apart from technical aspects of the projects. It is concluded that there are other non-technical effects at work and that further research is warranted to determine if it can be shown that these cost effects are definitely related to engineering management.

  10. [Cost estimation of an epidemiological surveillance network for animal diseases in Central Africa: a case study of the Chad network].

    PubMed

    Ouagal, M; Berkvens, D; Hendrikx, P; Fecher-Bourgeois, F; Saegerman, C

    2012-12-01

    In sub-Saharan Africa, most epidemiological surveillance networks for animal diseases were temporarily funded by foreign aid. It should be possible for national public funds to ensure the sustainability of such decision support tools. Taking the epidemiological surveillance network for animal diseases in Chad (REPIMAT) as an example, this study aims to estimate the network's cost by identifying the various costs and expenditures for each level of intervention. The network cost was estimated on the basis of an analysis of the operational organisation of REPIMAT, additional data collected in surveys and interviews with network field workers and a market price listing for Chad. These costs were then compared with those of other epidemiological surveillance networks in West Africa. The study results indicate that REPIMAT costs account for 3% of the State budget allocated to the Ministry of Livestock. In Chad in general, as in other West African countries, fixed costs outweigh variable costs at every level of intervention. The cost of surveillance principally depends on what is needed for surveillance at the local level (monitoring stations) and at the intermediate level (official livestock sectors and regional livestock delegations) and on the cost of the necessary equipment. In African countries, the cost of surveillance per square kilometre depends on livestock density.

  11. Stochastic Frontier Estimation of a CES Cost Function: The Case of Higher Education in Britain.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Izadi, Hooshang; Johnes, Geraint; Oskrochi, Reza; Crouchley, Robert

    2002-01-01

    Examines the use of stochastic frontier estimation of constant elasticity of substitution (CES) cost function to measure differences in efficiency among British universities. (Contains 28 references.) (PKP)

  12. REGIONAL ESTIMATION OF CURRENT AND FUTURE FOREST BIOMASS. (R828785)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The 90,674 wildland fires that burned 2.9 million ha at an estimated suppression cost of $1.6 billion in the United States during the 2000 fire season demonstrated that forest fuel loading has become a hazard to life, property, and ecosystem health as a result of past fire exc...

  13. Investigation of error sources in regional inverse estimates of greenhouse gas emissions in Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chan, E.; Chan, D.; Ishizawa, M.; Vogel, F.; Brioude, J.; Delcloo, A.; Wu, Y.; Jin, B.

    2015-08-01

    Inversion models can use atmospheric concentration measurements to estimate surface fluxes. This study is an evaluation of the errors in a regional flux inversion model for different provinces of Canada, Alberta (AB), Saskatchewan (SK) and Ontario (ON). Using CarbonTracker model results as the target, the synthetic data experiment analyses examined the impacts of the errors from the Bayesian optimisation method, prior flux distribution and the atmospheric transport model, as well as their interactions. The scaling factors for different sub-regions were estimated by the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and cost function minimization (CFM) methods. The CFM method results are sensitive to the relative size of the assumed model-observation mismatch and prior flux error variances. Experiment results show that the estimation error increases with the number of sub-regions using the CFM method. For the region definitions that lead to realistic flux estimates, the numbers of sub-regions for the western region of AB/SK combined and the eastern region of ON are 11 and 4 respectively. The corresponding annual flux estimation errors for the western and eastern regions using the MCMC (CFM) method are -7 and -3 % (0 and 8 %) respectively, when there is only prior flux error. The estimation errors increase to 36 and 94 % (40 and 232 %) resulting from transport model error alone. When prior and transport model errors co-exist in the inversions, the estimation errors become 5 and 85 % (29 and 201 %). This result indicates that estimation errors are dominated by the transport model error and can in fact cancel each other and propagate to the flux estimates non-linearly. In addition, it is possible for the posterior flux estimates having larger differences than the prior compared to the target fluxes, and the posterior uncertainty estimates could be unrealistically small that do not cover the target. The systematic evaluation of the different components of the inversion

  14. But what will it Cost? The history of NASA cost estimating

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamaker, Joseph W.

    1994-01-01

    Within two years of being chartered in 1958 as an independent agency to conduct civilian pursuits in aeronautics and space, NASA absorbed either wholly or partially the people, facilities, and equipment of several existing organizations. These included the laboratories of the National Advisory Committee of Aeronautics (NACA) at Langley Research Center in Virginia, Ames Research Center in California, and Lewis Research Center in Ohio; the Army Ballistic Missile Agency (ABMA) at Redstone Arsenal Alabama, for which the team of Wernher von Braun worked; and the Department of Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) and their ongoing work on big boosters. These were especially valuable resources to jump start the new agency in light of the shocking success of the Soviet space probe Sputnik in the autumn of the previous year and the corresponding pressure from an impatient American public to produce some response. Along with these inheritances, there came some existing systems engineering and management practices, including project cost estimating methodologies. This paper will briefly trace the origins of those methods and how they evolved within the agency over the past three decades.

  15. The health and visibility cost of air pollution: a comparison of estimation methods.

    PubMed

    Delucchi, Mark A; Murphy, James J; McCubbin, Donald R

    2002-02-01

    Air pollution from motor vehicles, electricity-generating plants, industry, and other sources can harm human health, injure crops and forests, damage building materials, and impair visibility. Economists sometimes analyze the social cost of these impacts, in order to illuminate tradeoffs, compare alternatives, and promote efficient use of scarce resource. In this paper, we compare estimates of the health and visibility costs of air pollution derived from a meta-hedonic price analysis, with an estimate of health costs derived from a damage-function analysis and an estimate of the visibility cost derived from contingent valuation. We find that the meta-hedonic price analysis produces an estimate of the health cost that lies at the low end of the range of damage-function estimates. This is consistent with hypotheses that on the one hand, hedonic price analysis does not capture all of the health costs of air pollution (because individuals may not be fully informed about all of the health effects), and that on the other hand, the value of mortality used in the high-end damage function estimates is too high. The analysis of the visibility cost of air pollution derived from a meta-hedonic price analysis produces an estimate that is essentially identical to an independent estimate based on contingent valuation. This close agreement lends some credence to the estimates. We then apply the meta hedonic-price model to estimate the visibility cost per kilogram of motor vehicle emissions.

  16. Regional flood quantile estimation for a Weibull Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boes, Duane C.; Heo, Jun-Haeng; Salas, Jose D.

    1989-05-01

    Estimation of annual flood quantiles at a given site, based on a regional Weibull model with independence in space and time, is considered. A common shape parameter over sites, motivated by an index flood assumption, was assumed. An exact simple formula for the Cramer-Rao lower bound for the variance of unbiased estimators of the quantile is obtained, and the gain of regional flood frequency analysis over single-site analysis can be quantified via this formula. The estimation techniques of the method of moments, the method of probability-weighted moments, and the method of maximum likelihood are compared.

  17. A comparative analysis of methods to represent uncertainty in estimating the cost of constructing wastewater treatment plants.

    PubMed

    Chen, Ho-Wen; Chang, Ni-Bin

    2002-08-01

    Prediction of construction cost of wastewater treatment facilities could be influential for the economic feasibility of various levels of water pollution control programs. However, construction cost estimation is difficult to precisely evaluate in an uncertain environment and measured quantities are always burdened with different types of cost structures. Therefore, an understanding of the previous development of wastewater treatment plants and of the related construction cost structures of those facilities becomes essential for dealing with an effective regional water pollution control program. But deviations between the observed values and the estimated values are supposed to be due to measurement errors only in the conventional regression models. The inherent uncertainties of the underlying cost structure, where the human estimation is influential, are rarely explored. This paper is designed to recast a well-known problem of construction cost estimation for both domestic and industrial wastewater treatment plants via a comparative framework. Comparisons were made for three technologies of regression analyses, including the conventional least squares regression method, the fuzzy linear regression method, and the newly derived fuzzy goal regression method. The case study, incorporating a complete database with 48 domestic wastewater treatment plants and 29 industrial wastewater treatment plants being collected in Taiwan, implements such a cost estimation procedure in an uncertain environment. Given that the fuzzy structure in regression estimation may account for the inherent human complexity in cost estimation, the fuzzy goal regression method does exhibit more robust results in terms of some criteria. Moderate economy of scale exists in constructing both the domestic and industrial wastewater treatment plants. Findings indicate that the optimal size of a domestic wastewater treatment plant is approximately equivalent to 15,000 m3/day (CMD) and higher in Taiwan

  18. Conservation voltage reduction: Estimating methodology for a large regional application

    SciTech Connect

    De Steese, J.G. ); Kennedy, B.W. ); Merrick, S.B. )

    1992-04-01

    Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) is an established and cost-effective practice that has motivated many utilities to investigate its application on individual systems. This paper describes a supply-curve methodology that can determine the conservation value of CVR applied to many distribution systems in a region. In the area served by Bonneville Power Administration involving approximately 150 utilities, the systematic implementations of CVR could conserve between 170 and 268 Average Megawatts at a cost of 5 cents/kWh. This was shown to be a larger resource than might be achievable by applying more conventional efficiency improvements to transmission and distribution (T D) systems in the region.

  19. Conservation voltage reduction: Estimating methodology for a large regional application

    SciTech Connect

    De Steese, J.G.; Kennedy, B.W.; Merrick, S.B.

    1992-04-01

    Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) is an established and cost-effective practice that has motivated many utilities to investigate its application on individual systems. This paper describes a supply-curve methodology that can determine the conservation value of CVR applied to many distribution systems in a region. In the area served by Bonneville Power Administration involving approximately 150 utilities, the systematic implementations of CVR could conserve between 170 and 268 Average Megawatts at a cost of 5 cents/kWh. This was shown to be a larger resource than might be achievable by applying more conventional efficiency improvements to transmission and distribution (T&D) systems in the region.

  20. Estimating the environmental and resource costs of leakage in water distribution systems: A shadow price approach.

    PubMed

    Molinos-Senante, María; Mocholí-Arce, Manuel; Sala-Garrido, Ramon

    2016-10-15

    Water scarcity is one of the main problems faced by many regions in the XXIst century. In this context, the need to reduce leakages from water distribution systems has gained almost universal acceptance. The concept of sustainable economic level of leakage (SELL) has been proposed to internalize the environmental and resource costs within economic level of leakage calculations. However, because these costs are not set by the market, they have not often been calculated. In this paper, the directional-distance function was used to estimate the shadow price of leakages as a proxy of their environmental and resource costs. This is a pioneering approach to the economic valuation of leakage externalities. An empirical application was carried out for the main Chilean water companies. The estimated results indicated that for 2014, the average shadow price of leakages was approximately 32% of the price of the water delivered. Moreover, as a sensitivity analysis, the shadow prices of the leakages were calculated from the perspective of the water companies' managers and the regulator. The methodology and findings of this study are essential for supporting the decision process of reducing leakage, contributing to the improvement of economic, social and environmental efficiency and sustainability of urban water supplies.

  1. Estimates and implications of the costs of compliance with biosafety regulations in developing countries.

    PubMed

    Falck-Zepeda, Jose; Yorobe, Jose; Husin, Bahagiawati Amir; Manalo, Abraham; Lokollo, Erna; Ramon, Godfrey; Zambrano, Patricia; Sutrisno

    2012-01-01

    Estimating the cost of compliance with biosafety regulations is important as it helps developers focus their investments in producer development. We provide estimates for the cost of compliance for a set of technologies in Indonesia, the Philippines and other countries. These costs vary from US $100,000 to 1.7 million. These are estimates of regulatory costs and do not include product development or deployment costs. Cost estimates need to be compared with potential gains when the technology is introduced in these countries and the gains in knowledge accumulate during the biosafety assessment process. Although the cost of compliance is important, time delays and uncertainty are even more important and may have an adverse impact on innovations reaching farmers.

  2. Geostatistical estimates of future recharge for the Death Valley region

    SciTech Connect

    Hevesi, J.A.; Flint, A.L.

    1998-12-01

    Spatially distributed estimates of regional ground water recharge rates under both current and potential future climates are needed to evaluate a potential geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, which is located within the Death Valley ground-water region (DVGWR). Determining the spatial distribution of recharge is important for regional saturated-zone ground-water flow models. In the southern Nevada region, the Maxey-Eakin method has been used for estimating recharge based on average annual precipitation. Although this method does not directly account for a variety of location-specific factors which control recharge (such as bedrock permeability, soil cover, and net radiation), precipitation is the primary factor that controls in the region. Estimates of recharge obtained by using the Maxey-Eakin method are comparable to estimates of recharge obtained by using chloride balance studies. The authors consider the Maxey-Eakin approach as a relatively simple method of obtaining preliminary estimates of recharge on a regional scale.

  3. Estimation of marginal costs at existing waste treatment facilities.

    PubMed

    Martinez-Sanchez, Veronica; Hulgaard, Tore; Hindsgaul, Claus; Riber, Christian; Kamuk, Bettina; Astrup, Thomas F

    2016-04-01

    This investigation aims at providing an improved basis for assessing economic consequences of alternative Solid Waste Management (SWM) strategies for existing waste facilities. A bottom-up methodology was developed to determine marginal costs in existing facilities due to changes in the SWM system, based on the determination of average costs in such waste facilities as function of key facility and waste compositional parameters. The applicability of the method was demonstrated through a case study including two existing Waste-to-Energy (WtE) facilities, one with co-generation of heat and power (CHP) and another with only power generation (Power), affected by diversion strategies of five waste fractions (fibres, plastic, metals, organics and glass), named "target fractions". The study assumed three possible responses to waste diversion in the WtE facilities: (i) biomass was added to maintain a constant thermal load, (ii) Refused-Derived-Fuel (RDF) was included to maintain a constant thermal load, or (iii) no reaction occurred resulting in a reduced waste throughput without full utilization of the facility capacity. Results demonstrated that marginal costs of diversion from WtE were up to eleven times larger than average costs and dependent on the response in the WtE plant. Marginal cost of diversion were between 39 and 287 € Mg(-1) target fraction when biomass was added in a CHP (from 34 to 303 € Mg(-1) target fraction in the only Power case), between -2 and 300 € Mg(-1) target fraction when RDF was added in a CHP (from -2 to 294 € Mg(-1) target fraction in the only Power case) and between 40 and 303 € Mg(-1) target fraction when no reaction happened in a CHP (from 35 to 296 € Mg(-1) target fraction in the only Power case). Although average costs at WtE facilities were highly influenced by energy selling prices, marginal costs were not (provided a response was initiated at the WtE to keep constant the utilized thermal capacity). Failing to systematically

  4. Estimating Software Development Costs and Schedules for Space Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-05-01

    SSCAG) participants. The SSCAG is an industry and government group 3l formed to enhance space system cost analysis. Another data source was the NASA...government and industry working group formed to advance space systems cost analysis. The SSCAG database contains software development information of...34The Management of Large Software Projects in the Space Industry Meeting," Logica, CNES, Toulouse, France, 1991. C-1 [17] Anderson, Christine, and

  5. Use of Multiple Data Sources to Estimate the Economic Cost of Dengue Illness in Malaysia

    PubMed Central

    Shepard, Donald S.; Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Lees, Rosemary Susan; Halasa, Yara; Lum, Lucy Chai See; Ng, Chiu Wan

    2012-01-01

    Dengue represents a substantial burden in many tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. We estimated the economic burden of dengue illness in Malaysia. Information about economic burden is needed for setting health policy priorities, but accurate estimation is difficult because of incomplete data. We overcame this limitation by merging multiple data sources to refine our estimates, including an extensive literature review, discussion with experts, review of data from health and surveillance systems, and implementation of a Delphi process. Because Malaysia has a passive surveillance system, the number of dengue cases is under-reported. Using an adjusted estimate of total dengue cases, we estimated an economic burden of dengue illness of US$56 million (Malaysian Ringgit MYR196 million) per year, which is approximately US$2.03 (Malaysian Ringgit 7.14) per capita. The overall economic burden of dengue would be even higher if we included costs associated with dengue prevention and control, dengue surveillance, and long-term sequelae of dengue. PMID:23033404

  6. Estimating health damage cost from secondary sulfate particles--a case study of Hunan Province, China.

    PubMed

    Hao, Ji-Ming; Li, Ji; Ye, Xue-Mei; Zhu, Tian-Le

    2003-09-01

    China's coal-dominated energy pattern has resulted in large amount of SO2 emissions. Estimate of the sulfur-related health damage cost is necessary to help perform systematic cost-benefit analysis and set national energy and emissions control priorities. Current researches were confined to gaseous SO2 in urban areas; however, secondary sulfate (SO4(2-)) particles can exert serious impact in a wider region. Based on the concept of "intake fraction", CALPUFF long-range dispersion model and 180 sample emission sources, multiple regression equation was obtained with good correlation( r = 0.85), which illustrates that populations were key parameters to determine intake fraction but source characteristics were insignificant. Based on the formula and the population distribution data, county-level intake fractions were mapped for Hunan Province(range: 1.1 x 10(-6) - 3.2 x 10(-6)) of China. A combination of county-level SO2 emissions with the intake fractions yields a total 1.98 tons of sulfate(SO4(2-)) inhalation, and resulting total health damage cost to be 0.76(willingness to pay approach, WTP) or 0.16 (human capital approach, HC) billion USD in 1997, about 2.1% or 0.45% of GDP in Hunan in 1997. Average health damage cost per ton of SO2 emission is 930(WTP) or 200 USD(HC). The results demonstrated that more stringent regulation should be forced.

  7. A travel cost study to estimate recreational value for a bird refuge at Lake Manyas, Turkey.

    PubMed

    Gürlük, Serkan; Rehber, Erkan

    2008-09-01

    This paper investigates the recreational economic value of bird watching in the Kuşcenneti National Park (KNP) at Lake Manyas, one of the Ramsar sites of Turkey and an important endangered species habitat. The lake and KNP provide considerable benefits for the region, although they have faced many environmental conflicts due to diverse stakeholders' needs. An economic valuation for the benefits provided by the KNP is important data for stakeholders and local authorities. The travel cost method is used to estimate recreational demand for the KNP. The recreational value of the KNP is 103,320,074 USD annually. Results shed light on important policy issues and help to resolve conflicts among stakeholders. This calculated value is considerably higher than the annual investment and operation expenditures of the KNP. Sustainability of the important species around the lake could be achieved if the region's inhabitants are compensated by KNP visitors.

  8. An updated estimate of costs of endophthalmitis following cataract surgery among Medicare patients: 2010–2014

    PubMed Central

    Schmier, Jordana K; Hulme-Lowe, Carolyn K; Covert, David W; Lau, Edmund C

    2016-01-01

    Background Endophthalmitis, which can occur after ophthalmic surgery, is an inflammation of the intraocular cavity and causes temporary or permanent vision impairment. However, little is known about the cost of treatment. The objective of this analysis was to update and expand upon the results of a previously published report that estimated the direct medical cost of treatment for endophthalmitis. Methods Retrospective data analysis using 2010 through 2014 United States Medicare Limited Data Sets. Procedure codes were used to identify beneficiaries who underwent cataract surgery; demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of diagnosis were determined. Patients were stratified into cases (those who developed endophthalmitis) and controls (those who did not develop endophthalmitis) in the 3 months following surgery. Claims (ie, charges) and reimbursements (ie, costs) for cases and controls in the 6 months following cataract surgery were identified and compared. Results are presented in 2015 US dollars. Results Of a total of 153,860 cataract surgery patients, 181 were diagnosed with endophthalmitis following cataract surgery, at a rate of 1.2 per 1,000. Cases were more likely to be male and less likely to be white than controls; age was similar. Total medical claims and reimbursements as well as ophthalmic claims and reimbursements were significantly higher for cases compared with controls. Total reimbursements, adjusted for age, sex, and region, were $4,893 higher (83% greater) and adjusted ophthalmic reimbursements were $3,002 higher (156% greater) for cases than for controls. Claims and reimbursements were significantly higher across all types of Medicare cost components. Conclusion Postcataract surgery endophthalmitis is associated with a substantial cost. Successful prophylaxis with antibiotic agents would reduce the significant costs associated with treating endophthalmitis. PMID:27822008

  9. A Review of Cost Estimates for Direct Spending Legislation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-06-10

    savings estimated. OMB estimated savings of $124 billion for all of the fourteen bills—7 percent or $9 billion less than CBO. On balance , almost all of...five-year savings of $133.3 billion—a difference of $8.8 billion, or 7 percent. On balance , almost all of this difference arises in just three...go scorecard . If OMB moved to the CBO definitions for scoring, OMB’s estimate of pay-as-you-go savings in the Budget would be $24.4 billion. If CBO

  10. Estimating Development Cost of an Interactive Website Based Cancer Screening Promotion Program

    PubMed Central

    Lairson, David R.; Chung, Tong Han; Smith, Lisa G.; Springston, Jeffrey K.; Champion, Victoria L.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives The aim of this study was to estimate the initial development costs for an innovative talk show format tailored intervention delivered via the interactive web, for increasing cancer screening in women 50 to 75 who were non-adherent to screening guidelines for colorectal cancer and/or breast cancer. Methods The cost of the intervention development was estimated from a societal perspective. Micro costing methods plus vendor contract costs were used to estimate cost. Staff logs were used to track personnel time. Non-personnel costs include all additional resources used to produce the intervention. Results Development cost of the interactive web based intervention was $.39 million, of which 77% was direct cost. About 98% of the cost was incurred in personnel time cost, contract cost and overhead cost. Conclusions The new web-based disease prevention medium required substantial investment in health promotion and media specialist time. The development cost was primarily driven by the high level of human capital required. The cost of intervention development is important information for assessing and planning future public and private investments in web-based health promotion interventions. PMID:25749548

  11. 31 CFR Appendix I(f) to Part 13 - Estimated Overhead and Administrative Costs

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Estimated Overhead and Administrative Costs I(F) Appendix I(F) to Part 13 Money and Finance: Treasury Office of the Secretary of the Treasury... Pt. 13, App. I(F) Appendix I(F) to Part 13—Estimated Overhead and Administrative Costs Date:...

  12. 31 CFR Appendix I(f) to Part 13 - Estimated Overhead and Administrative Costs

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Estimated Overhead and Administrative Costs I(F) Appendix I(F) to Part 13 Money and Finance: Treasury Office of the Secretary of the Treasury... Pt. 13, App. I(F) Appendix I(F) to Part 13—Estimated Overhead and Administrative Costs Date:...

  13. 31 CFR Appendix I(f) to Part 13 - Estimated Overhead and Administrative Costs

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Estimated Overhead and Administrative Costs I(F) Appendix I(F) to Part 13 Money and Finance: Treasury Office of the Secretary of the Treasury... Pt. 13, App. I(F) Appendix I(F) to Part 13—Estimated Overhead and Administrative Costs Date:...

  14. 31 CFR Appendix I(f) to Part 13 - Estimated Overhead and Administrative Costs

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Estimated Overhead and Administrative Costs I(F) Appendix I(F) to Part 13 Money and Finance: Treasury Office of the Secretary of the Treasury... Pt. 13, App. I(F) Appendix I(F) to Part 13—Estimated Overhead and Administrative Costs Date:...

  15. Nutrient abatement potential and abatement costs of waste water treatment plants in the Baltic Sea region.

    PubMed

    Hautakangas, Sami; Ollikainen, Markku; Aarnos, Kari; Rantanen, Pirjo

    2014-04-01

    We assess the physical potential to reduce nutrient loads from waste water treatment plants in the Baltic Sea region and determine the costs of abating nutrients based on the estimated potential. We take a sample of waste water treatment plants of different size classes and generalize its properties to the whole population of waste water treatment plants. Based on a detailed investment and operational cost data on actual plants, we develop the total and marginal abatement cost functions for both nutrients. To our knowledge, our study is the first of its kind; there is no other study on this issue which would take advantage of detailed data on waste water treatment plants at this extent. We demonstrate that the reduction potential of nutrients is huge in waste water treatment plants. Increasing the abatement in waste water treatment plants can result in 70 % of the Baltic Sea Action Plan nitrogen reduction target and 80 % of the Baltic Sea Action Plan phosphorus reduction target. Another good finding is that the costs of reducing both nutrients are much lower than previously thought. The large reduction of nitrogen would cost 670 million euros and of phosphorus 150 million euros. We show that especially for phosphorus the abatement costs in agriculture would be much higher than in waste water treatment plants.

  16. The Pilot Training Study: A Cost-Estimating Model for Advanced Pilot Training (APT).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knollmeyer, L. E.

    The Advanced Pilot Training Cost Model is a statement of relationships that may be used, given the necessary inputs, for estimating the resources required and the costs to train pilots in the Air Force formal flying training schools. Resources and costs are computed by weapon system on an annual basis for use in long-range planning or sensitivity…

  17. Estimating Resource Costs of Levy Campaigns in Five Ohio School Districts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ingle, W. Kyle; Petroff, Ruth Ann; Johnson, Paul A.

    2011-01-01

    Using Levin and McEwan's (2001) "ingredients method," this study identified the major activities and associated costs of school levy campaigns in five districts. The ingredients were divided into one of five cost categories--human resources, facilities, fees, marketing, and supplies. As to overall costs of the campaigns, estimates ranged…

  18. Aircraft Contractor Logistics Support: A Cost Estimating Guide.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-09-01

    April 1983. 17. Enright , Mike. C-20A Cost Analyst, WPAFB OH. Per- sonal interview. 15 August 1983. 18. Fatkin, Allen. AFSC CAIG Research Report NRI...Aviation, Peterson AFB CO. Telephone interview. 11 May 1983. 32. Robert , Bob. Engineer for Doss Aviation, Randolph AFB TX. Telephone interview. 17 June

  19. ESTIMATING INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGY COSTS FOR THE SITE PROGRAM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Among the objectives of the EPA`s Superfund Innovative Technology Evaluation (SITE) Program are two which pertain to the issue of economics: 1) That the program will provide a projected cost for each treatment technology demonstrated. 2) That the program will attempt to identify ...

  20. Estimating the Costs of Torture: Challenges and Opportunities.

    PubMed

    Mpinga, Emmanuel Kabengele; Kandala, Ngianga-Bakwin; Hasselgård-Rowe, Jennifer; Tshimungu Kandolo, Félicien; Verloo, Henk; Bukonda, Ngoyi K Zacharie; Chastonay, Philippe

    2015-12-01

    Due to its nature, extent and consequences, torture is considered a major public health problem and a serious violation of human rights. Our study aims to set the foundation for a theoretical framework of the costs related to torture. It examines existing challenges and proposes some solutions. Our proposed framework targets policy makers, human rights activists, professionals working in programmes, centres and rehabilitation projects, judges and lawyers, survivors of torture and their families and anyone involved in the prevention and fight against this practice and its consequences. We adopted a methodology previously used in studies investigating the challenges in measuring and valuing productivity costs in health disorders. We identify and discuss conceptual, methodological, political and ethical challenges that studies on the economic and social costs of torture pose and propose alternatives in terms of possible solutions to these challenges. The economic dimension of torture is rarely debated and integrated in research, policies and programmes. Several challenges such as epistemological, methodological, ethical or political ones have often been presented as obstacles to cost studies of torture and as an excuse for not investigating this dimension. In identifying, analysing and proposing solutions to these challenges, we intend to stimulate the integration of the economic dimension in research and prevention of torture strategies.

  1. A Robust Design Approach to Cost Estimation: Solar Energy for Marine Corps Expeditionary Operations (Briefing Charts)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-05-01

    days 75-134 for Salt Lake City, by year, 1961-2010 Cost projections: oil and solar 12 Oil cost projections (from USEIA, 2014) and PV array cost...A ROBUST DESIGN APPROACH TO COST ESTIMATION: SOLAR ENERGY FOR MARINE CORPS EXPEDITIONARY OPERATIONS S.M. Sanchez, M.M. Morse, S.C. Upton, M.L...DATES COVERED 00-00-2014 to 00-00-2014 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE A Robust Design Approach to Cost Estimation: Solar Energy for Marine Corps

  2. Regional scaling based estimation of IDF curves in Slovakia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohnova, Silvia; Zechelova, Karolina; Gaal, Ladislav; Szolgay, Jan; Hlavcova, Kamila

    2013-04-01

    Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are of a great practical importance in water resources management e.g. for the design of hydraulic structures and urban drainage systems, and for the estimation of flash flood risk. However the lack of rainfall data with sufficient temporal resolution (usually caused by limited number of rain gauges with continuous recording and short series of measurements) does not generally allow for constructing maps of extreme short-duration rainfall with the desired spatial resolution. In such cases the simple scaling model, which has proved its applicability in various regions of the world, offers a solution to this problem. Using the scaling hypothesis, it is possible to estimate design values of rainfall of selected recurrence intervals and durations shorter than a day by using only the daily data, which are available from a considerably denser network with long series of measurements. In this study the simple scaling theory was applied in the whole territory of Slovakia for the estimation of the intensity-duration-frequency characteristics of short duration rainfall. For the analysis the data series in one minute time step from 21 rainfall gauging stations were used. To estimate T-year rainfall quantiles of sub-daily duration at ungauged sites, two methodologies are combined: the regional index value approach, and the local concept of simple scaling. The former approach is used to estimate the quantiles of 1-day rainfall maxima in the warm season, supposing that the so called index value can be estimated locally and the dimensionless quantiles (the regional growth curve) can be derived by means of regional frequency analysis. The latter approach is employed to estimate the local IDF curves by downscaling the T-year quantiles of 1-day rainfall maxima using the regionally averaged scaling exponent. The derived IDF curves for these stations are finally compared with those defined by Šamaj and Valovič (1973), which are

  3. 7 CFR Exhibit A to Subpart A of... - Estimated Breakdown of Dwelling Costs for Estimating Partial Payments

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... Partial Payments A Exhibit A to Subpart A of Part 1924 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of... Planning and Performing Construction and Other Development Pt. 1924, Subpt. A, Exh. A Exhibit A to Subpart A of Part 1924—Estimated Breakdown of Dwelling Costs for Estimating Partial Payments With slab...

  4. 7 CFR Exhibit A to Subpart A of... - Estimated Breakdown of Dwelling Costs for Estimating Partial Payments

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... Partial Payments A Exhibit A to Subpart A of Part 1924 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of... Planning and Performing Construction and Other Development Pt. 1924, Subpt. A, Exh. A Exhibit A to Subpart A of Part 1924—Estimated Breakdown of Dwelling Costs for Estimating Partial Payments With slab...

  5. 7 CFR Exhibit A to Subpart A of... - Estimated Breakdown of Dwelling Costs for Estimating Partial Payments

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... Partial Payments A Exhibit A to Subpart A of Part 1924 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of... Planning and Performing Construction and Other Development Pt. 1924, Subpt. A, Exh. A Exhibit A to Subpart A of Part 1924—Estimated Breakdown of Dwelling Costs for Estimating Partial Payments With slab...

  6. 7 CFR Exhibit A to Subpart A of... - Estimated Breakdown of Dwelling Costs for Estimating Partial Payments

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... Partial Payments A Exhibit A to Subpart A of Part 1924 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of... Planning and Performing Construction and Other Development Pt. 1924, Subpt. A, Exh. A Exhibit A to Subpart A of Part 1924—Estimated Breakdown of Dwelling Costs for Estimating Partial Payments With slab...

  7. 7 CFR Exhibit A to Subpart A of... - Estimated Breakdown of Dwelling Costs for Estimating Partial Payments

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... Partial Payments A Exhibit A to Subpart A of Part 1924 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of... Planning and Performing Construction and Other Development Pt. 1924, Subpt. A, Exh. A Exhibit A to Subpart A of Part 1924—Estimated Breakdown of Dwelling Costs for Estimating Partial Payments With slab...

  8. Estimating the cost of new drug development: is it really 802 million dollars?

    PubMed

    Adams, Christopher P; Brantner, Van V

    2006-01-01

    This paper replicates the drug development cost estimates of Joseph DiMasi and colleagues ("The Price of Innovation"), using their published cost estimates along with information on success rates and durations from a publicly available data set. For drugs entering human clinical trials for the first time between 1989 and 2002, the paper estimated the cost per new drug to be 868 million dollars. However, our estimates vary from around 500 million dollars to more than 2,000 million dollars, depending on the therapy or the developing firm.

  9. Estimation of cartilaginous region in noncontrast CT of the chest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Qian; Safdar, Nabile; Yu, Glenna; Myers, Emmarie; Sandler, Anthony; Linguraru, Marius George

    2014-03-01

    Pectus excavatum is a posterior depression of the sternum and adjacent costal cartilages and is the most common congenital deformity of the anterior chest wall. Its surgical repair can be performed via minimally invasive procedures that involve sternum and cartilage relocation and benefit from adequate surgical planning. In this study, we propose a method to estimate the cartilage regions in thoracic CT scans, which is the first step of statistical modeling of the osseous and cartilaginous structures for the rib cage. The ribs and sternum are first segmented by using interactive region growing and removing the vertebral column with morphological operations. The entire chest wall is also segmented to estimate the skin surface. After the segmentation, surface meshes are generated from the volumetric data and the skeleton of the ribs is extracted using surface contraction method. Then the cartilage surface is approximated via contracting the skin surface to the osseous structure. The ribs' skeleton is projected to the cartilage surface and the cartilages are estimated using cubic interpolation given the joints with the sternum. The final cartilage regions are formed by the cartilage surface inside the convex hull of the estimated cartilages. The method was validated with the CT scans of two pectus excavatum patients and three healthy subjects. The average distance between the estimated cartilage surface and the ground truth is 2.89 mm. The promising results indicate the effectiveness of cartilage surface estimation using the skin surface.

  10. Estimating Criminal Justice System Costs and Cost-Savings Benefits of Day Reporting Centers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Craddock, Amy

    2004-01-01

    This paper reports on the net cost-savings benefits (loss) to the criminal justice system of one rural and one urban day reporting center, both of which serve high risk/high need probationers. It also discusses issues of conducting criminal justice system cost studies of community corrections programs. The average DRC participant in the rural…

  11. Molten Salt: Concept Definition and Capital Cost Estimate

    SciTech Connect

    Stoddard, Larry; Andrew, Daniel; Adams, Shannon; Galluzzo, Geoff

    2016-06-30

    The Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Renewable Power (ORP) has been tasked to provide effective program management and strategic direction for all of the DOE’s Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy’s (EERE’s) renewable power programs. The ORP’s efforts to accomplish this mission are aligned with national energy policies, DOE strategic planning, EERE’s strategic planning, Congressional appropriation, and stakeholder advice. ORP is supported by three renewable energy offices, of which one is the Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) whose SunShot Initiative has a mission to accelerate research, development and large scale deployment of solar technologies in the United States. SETO has a goal of reducing the cost of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) by 75 percent of 2010 costs by 2020 to reach parity with base-load energy rates, and to reduce costs 30 percent further by 2030. The SunShot Initiative is promoting the implementation of high temperature CSP with thermal energy storage allowing generation during high demand hours. The SunShot Initiative has funded significant research and development work on component testing, with attention to high temperature molten salts, heliostats, receiver designs, and high efficiency high temperature supercritical CO2 (sCO2) cycles. DOE retained Black & Veatch to support SETO’s SunShot Initiative for CSP solar power tower technology in the following areas: 1. Concept definition, including costs and schedule, of a flexible test facility to be used to test and prove components in part to support financing. 2. Concept definition, including costs and schedule, of an integrated high temperature molten salt (MS) facility with thermal energy storage and with a supercritical CO2 cycle generating approximately 10MWe. 3. Concept definition, including costs and schedule, of an integrated high temperature falling particle facility with thermal energy storage and with a supercritical CO2

  12. Estimating Power Outage Cost based on a Survey for Industrial Customers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoshida, Yoshikuni; Matsuhashi, Ryuji

    A survey was conducted on power outage cost for industrial customers. 5139 factories, which are designated energy management factories in Japan, answered their power consumption and the loss of production value due to the power outage in an hour in summer weekday. The median of unit cost of power outage of whole sectors is estimated as 672 yen/kWh. The sector of services for amusement and hobbies and the sector of manufacture of information and communication electronics equipment relatively have higher unit cost of power outage. Direct damage cost from power outage in whole sectors reaches 77 billion yen. Then utilizing input-output analysis, we estimated indirect damage cost that is caused by the repercussion of production halt. Indirect damage cost in whole sectors reaches 91 billion yen. The sector of wholesale and retail trade has the largest direct damage cost. The sector of manufacture of transportation equipment has the largest indirect damage cost.

  13. Falling Particles: Concept Definition and Capital Cost Estimate

    SciTech Connect

    Stoddard, Larry; Galluzzo, Geoff; Adams, Shannon; Andrew, Daniel

    2016-06-30

    The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Renewable Power (ORP) has been tasked to provide effective program management and strategic direction for all of the DOE’s Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy’s (EERE’s) renewable power programs. The ORP’s efforts to accomplish this mission are aligned with national energy policies, DOE strategic planning, EERE’s strategic planning, Congressional appropriation, and stakeholder advice. ORP is supported by three renewable energy offices, of which one is the Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) whose SunShot Initiative has a mission to accelerate research, development and large scale deployment of solar technologies in the United States. SETO has a goal of reducing the cost of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) by 75 percent of 2010 costs by 2020 to reach parity with base-load energy rates, and to reduce costs 30 percent further by 2030. The SunShot Initiative is promoting the implementation of high temperature CSP with thermal energy storage allowing generation during high demand hours. The SunShot Initiative has funded significant research and development work on component testing, with attention to high temperature molten salts, heliostats, receiver designs, and high efficiency high temperature supercritical CO2 (sCO2) cycles.

  14. Regionalized rainfall-runoff model to estimate low flow indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia, Florine; Folton, Nathalie; Oudin, Ludovic

    2016-04-01

    Estimating low flow indices is of paramount importance to manage water resources and risk assessments. These indices are derived from river discharges which are measured at gauged stations. However, the lack of observations at ungauged sites bring the necessity of developing methods to estimate these low flow indices from observed discharges in neighboring catchments and from catchment characteristics. Different estimation methods exist. Regression or geostatistical methods performed on the low flow indices are the most common types of methods. Another less common method consists in regionalizing rainfall-runoff model parameters, from catchment characteristics or by spatial proximity, to estimate low flow indices from simulated hydrographs. Irstea developed GR2M-LoiEau, a conceptual monthly rainfall-runoff model, combined with a regionalized model of snow storage and melt. GR2M-LoiEau relies on only two parameters, which are regionalized and mapped throughout France. This model allows to cartography monthly reference low flow indices. The inputs data come from SAFRAN, the distributed mesoscale atmospheric analysis system, which provides daily solid and liquid precipitation and temperature data from everywhere in the French territory. To exploit fully these data and to estimate daily low flow indices, a new version of GR-LoiEau has been developed at a daily time step. The aim of this work is to develop and regionalize a GR-LoiEau model that can provide any daily, monthly or annual estimations of low flow indices, yet keeping only a few parameters, which is a major advantage to regionalize them. This work includes two parts. On the one hand, a daily conceptual rainfall-runoff model is developed with only three parameters in order to simulate daily and monthly low flow indices, mean annual runoff and seasonality. On the other hand, different regionalization methods, based on spatial proximity and similarity, are tested to estimate the model parameters and to simulate

  15. Medical costs of smoking in the United States: estimates, their validity, and their implications

    PubMed Central

    Warner, K.; Hodgson, T.; Carroll, C.

    1999-01-01

    OBJECTIVE—To compare estimates of the medical costs of smoking in the United States and to consider their relevance to assessing the costs of smoking in developing countries and the net economic burden of smoking.
DATA SOURCES—A Medline search through early 1999 using keywords "smoking" and "cost", with review of article reference lists.
STUDY SELECTION—Peer-reviewed papers examining medical costs in a single year, covering the non-institutionalised American population.
DATA EXTRACTION—Methods underlying study estimates were identified, described, and compared with attributable expenditure methodology in the literature dealing with costs of illness. Differences in methods were associated with implied differences in findings.
DATA SYNTHESIS—With one exception, the studies find the annual medical costs of smoking to constitute approximately 6-8% of American personal health expenditures. The exception, a recent study, found much larger attributable expenditures. The lower estimates may reflect the limitation of analysis to costs associated with the principal smoking-related diseases. The higher estimate derives from analysis of smoking-attributable differences in all medical costs. However, the finding from the most recent study, also considering all medical costs, fell in the 6-8% range.
CONCLUSIONS—The medical costs of smoking in the United States equal, and may well exceed, the commonly referenced figure of 6-8%. This literature has direct methodological relevance to developing countries interested in assessing the magnitude of their current cost-of-smoking burden and their future burdens, with differences in tobacco use histories and the availability of chronic disease treatment affecting country-specific estimates. The debate over the use of gross or net medical cost estimates is likely to intensify with the proliferation of lawsuits against the tobacco industry to recover expenditures on tobacco-produced disease.


Keywords: medical

  16. Cost estimation and modeling for space missions at APL/JHU

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crawford, L. J.; Coughlin, T. B.; Ebert, W. L.

    1996-07-01

    Cost estimation of space science missions at APL over the past two decades has been singularly successful in arriving at program costs that are within a few percent of the actual costs at program completion. The most recent example is the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) mission which was estimated at approximately 112 million FY-92 dollars and came in at approximately three percent under the estimated cost. This demonstrated performance has been achieved without the benefit of a formal cost model, such as those used in government and industry (GSFC, MSFC, SAIC, etc.). In light of this performance, it is important to understand the parameters that are used in the cost estimating process in an effort to quantify those elements in a program that are most important to the final cost. We have identified a number of areas which contribute to eventual cost performance; these include: (a) spacecraft and mission complexity; (b) use of already-developed (facility- class) instruments versus "to be developed" new instruments; (c) synergism among programs being implemented concurrently; (d) program implementation length; (e) design-to-cost practice for all major subsystems and instruments without contingency; (f) lead engineer responsibility throughout design, layout, fabrication, test, integration, and initial flight operations; (g) designed-in quality and testability to minimize rework; (h) incorporation of reliability and quality assurance engineering within the program structure; (i) minimization of documentation and encouragement of oral and electronic communication as required. We have found that gross parametrization of costs such as the traditional weight, power, and length of the program commonly included in typical models do not reliably predict actual costs. A methodology will be presented, whereby, the elements identified above plus others are used to describe the process implemented by APL in previous missions to generate cost estimates and to control costs

  17. Regional intensive care transports: a prospective analysis of distance, time and cost for road, helicopter and fixed-wing ambulances

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background There are three different types of ambulance systems, all of which can manage the same secondary intensive care patient transport mission: road ambulance, rotor-wing ambulance, and fixed-wing ambulance. We hypothesized that costs for specific transport distances would differ between systems. We aimed to analyze distances and observed times for ambulance intensive care secondary transport missions together with system costs to assess this. Methods We prospectively collected data for consecutive urgent intensive care transports into the regional tertiary care hospital in the northern region of Sweden. Distances and transport times were gathered, and a cost model was generated based on these together with fixed and operating costs from the three different ambulance systems. Distance-cost and time–cost estimations were then generated for each transport system. Results Road ambulance cost relatively less for shorter distances (within 250 kilometers/155 miles) but were relatively time ineffective. The rotor-wing systems were most expensive regardless of distance; but were most time-effective up to 400–500 km (248–310 miles). Fixed-wing systems were more cost-effective for longer distance (300 km/186 miles), and time effective for transports over 500 km (310 miles). Conclusions In summary, based on an economic model developed from observed regional ICU patient transports, and cost estimations, different ambulance system cost-distances could be compared. Distance-cost and time results show that helicopters can be effective up to moderate ICU transport distances (400–500), though are expensive to operate. For longer ICU patient transports, fixed-wing transport systems are both cost and time effective compared to helicopter-based systems. PMID:24902480

  18. Kaposi sarcoma incidence in Mozambique: national and regional estimates.

    PubMed

    Meireles, Paula; Albuquerque, Gabriela; Vieira, Mariana; Foia, Severiano; Ferro, Josefo; Carrilho, Carla; Lunet, Nuno

    2015-11-01

    Kaposi sarcoma is expressed in four clinical variants, all associated with human herpes virus type 8 infection, namely, classic, endemic, immunosuppression-related and AIDS-related. The latter currently accounts for most of the burden of Kaposi sarcoma in sub-Saharan Africa, reflecting the frequency of HIV infection and its management. We aimed to estimate the incidence of Kaposi sarcoma in Mozambique and in its provinces. We estimated the number of incident cases of Kaposi sarcoma by adding up the expected number of endemic and AIDS-related cases. The former were estimated from the rates observed in Kyandondo, Uganda (1960-1971). The latter were computed from the number of AIDS-related deaths in each region, assuming that the ratio between the AIDS-related Kaposi sarcoma incident cases and the number of AIDS-related deaths observed in the city of Beira applies to all regions. A total of 3862 Kaposi sarcoma cases were estimated to have occurred in Mozambique in 2007, mostly AIDS-related, in the age group 25-49 years, and in provinces from South/Centre. The age-standardized incidence rates were 36.1/100 000 in men and 11.5/100 000 in women, with a more than three-fold variation across provinces. We estimated a high incidence of Kaposi sarcoma in Mozambique, along with large regional differences. These results can be used to improve disease management and to sustain political decisions on health policies.

  19. NAS Automation Equipment Operating Cost Estimates, FY 1978-1984,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-06-01

    AIRWAY FACILITIES cost $78,947,000 (70%), AIR TRAFFIC software support was $30,027,000 (27%) and other labor was $3,244,000 (3%). Support of the Enroute...andRepair . 4-9 4.7 Support Engineering................4-10 4.8 Automatic Data Interchange System, Service’B . .... 4-10 4.9 Field Software ...Maintenance .. .. .. ..... ...... 4-10 4.10 AT Training....................4-10 4.11 Operational Software S4pport........................4-11 ’ 4.12 NAFEC

  20. The Hospitalization Costs of Diabetes and Hypertension Complications in Zimbabwe: Estimations and Correlations

    PubMed Central

    Mutowo, Mutsa P.; Lorgelly, Paula K.; Laxy, Michael; Mangwiro, John C.; Owen, Alice J.

    2016-01-01

    Objective. Treating complications associated with diabetes and hypertension imposes significant costs on health care systems. This study estimated the hospitalization costs for inpatients in a public hospital in Zimbabwe. Methods. The study was retrospective and utilized secondary data from medical records. Total hospitalization costs were estimated using generalized linear models. Results. The median cost and interquartile range (IQR) for patients with diabetes, $994 (385–1553) mean $1319 (95% CI: 981–1657), was higher than patients with hypertension, $759 (494–1147) mean $914 (95% CI: 825–1003). Female patients aged below 65 years with diabetes had the highest estimated mean costs ($1467 (95% CI: 1177–1828)). Wound care had the highest estimated mean cost of all procedures, $2884 (95% CI: 2004–4149) for patients with diabetes and $2239 (95% CI: 1589–3156) for patients with hypertension. Age below 65 years, medical procedures (amputation, wound care, dialysis, and physiotherapy), the presence of two or more comorbidities, and being prescribed two or more drugs were associated with significantly higher hospitalization costs. Conclusion. Our estimated costs could be used to evaluate and improve current inpatient treatment and management of patients with diabetes and hypertension and determine the most cost-effective interventions to prevent complications and comorbidities. PMID:27403444

  1. Survey of State-Level Cost and Benefit Estimates of Renewable Portfolio Standards

    SciTech Connect

    Heeter, J.; Barbose, G.; Bird, L.; Weaver, S.; Flores-Espino, F.; Kuskova-Burns, K.; Wiser, R.

    2014-05-01

    Most renewable portfolio standards (RPS) have five or more years of implementation experience, enabling an assessment of their costs and benefits. Understanding RPS costs and benefits is essential for policymakers evaluating existing RPS policies, assessing the need for modifications, and considering new policies. This study provides an overview of methods used to estimate RPS compliance costs and benefits, based on available data and estimates issued by utilities and regulators. Over the 2010-2012 period, average incremental RPS compliance costs in the United States were equivalent to 0.8% of retail electricity rates, although substantial variation exists around this average, both from year-to-year and across states. The methods used by utilities and regulators to estimate incremental compliance costs vary considerably from state to state and a number of states are currently engaged in processes to refine and standardize their approaches to RPS cost calculation. The report finds that state assessments of RPS benefits have most commonly attempted to quantitatively assess avoided emissions and human health benefits, economic development impacts, and wholesale electricity price savings. Compared to the summary of RPS costs, the summary of RPS benefits is more limited, as relatively few states have undertaken detailed benefits estimates, and then only for a few types of potential policy impacts. In some cases, the same impacts may be captured in the assessment of incremental costs. For these reasons, and because methodologies and level of rigor vary widely, direct comparisons between the estimates of benefits and costs are challenging.

  2. Estimating temporal changes in extreme rainfall in Sicily Region (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonaccorso, Brunella; Aronica, Giuseppe

    2016-04-01

    An intensification of extreme rainfall events have characterized several areas of peninsular and insular Italy since the early 2000s, suggesting an upward ongoing trend likely driven by climate change. In the present study temporal changes in 1-, 3-, 6-, 12- and 24-hour annual maxima rainfall series from more than 200 sites in Sicily region (Italy) are examined. A regional study is performed in order to reduce the uncertainty in change detection related to the limited length of the available records of extreme rainfall series. More specifically, annual maxima series are treated according to a regional flood index - type approach to frequency analysis, by assuming stationarity on a decadal time scale. First a cluster analysis using at-site characteristics is used to determine homogeneous rainfall regions. Then, potential changes in regional L-moment ratios are analyzed using a 10-year moving window. Furthermore, the shapes of regional growth curves, derived by splitting the records into separate decades, are compared. In addition, a jackknife procedure is used to assess uncertainty in the fitted growth curves and to identify significant trends in quantile estimates. Results reveal that, despite L-moment ratios show a general decreasing trend and that growth curves corresponding to the last decade (2000-2009) are usually less steep than the ones of the previous periods, rainfall quantile estimates have increased during the 2000s due to a large increase in regional average median, mainly in Western Sicily.

  3. Cost estimate of hospital stays for premature newborns of adolescent mothers in a Brazilian public hospital

    PubMed Central

    Mwamakamba, Lutufyo Witson; Zucchi, Paola

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT Objective: To estimate the direct costs of hospital stay for premature newborns of adolescent mothers, in a public hospital. Methods: A cost estimate study conducted between 2009 and 2011, in which direct hospital costs were estimated for premature newborns of adolescent mothers, with 22 to 36 6/7 gestational weeks, and treated at the neonatal unit of the hospital. Results: In 2006, there were 5,180 deliveries at this hospital, and 17.8% (922) were newborns of adolescent mothers, of which 19.63% (181) were admitted to the neonatal unit. Out of the 181 neonates, 58% (105) were premature and 80% (84) of them were included in this study. These 84 neonates had a total of 1,633 days in-patient hospital care at a total cost of US$195,609.00. Approximately 72% of this total cost (US$141,323.00) accounted for hospital services. The mean daily costs ranged from US$97.00 to US$157.00. Conclusion: This study demonstrated that the average cost of premature newborns from adolescent mothers was US$2,328.00 and varied according to birth weight. For those weighing <1,000g at birth, the mean direct cost was US$8,930.00 per stay as opposed to a cost of US$642.00 for those with birth weight >2,000g. The overall estimated direct cost for the 84 neonates in the study totaled US$195,609.00. PMID:25003930

  4. Comparing NASA and ESA Cost Estimating Methods for Human Missions to Mars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hunt, Charles D.; vanPelt, Michel O.

    2004-01-01

    To compare working methodologies between the cost engineering functions in NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and ESA European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC), as well as to set-up cost engineering capabilities for future manned Mars projects and other studies which involve similar subsystem technologies in MSFC and ESTEC, a demonstration cost estimate exercise was organized. This exercise was a direct way of enhancing not only cooperation between agencies but also both agencies commitment to credible cost analyses. Cost engineers in MSFC and ESTEC independently prepared life-cycle cost estimates for a reference human Mars project and subsequently compared the results and estimate methods in detail. As a non-sensitive, public domain reference case for human Mars projects, the Mars Direct concept was chosen. In this paper the results of the exercise are shown; the differences and similarities in estimate methodologies, philosophies, and databases between MSFC and ESTEC, as well as the estimate results for the Mars Direct concept. The most significant differences are explained and possible estimate improvements identified. In addition, the Mars Direct plan and the extensive cost breakdown structure jointly set-up by MSFC and ESTEC for this concept are presented. It was found that NASA applied estimate models mainly based on historic Apollo and Space Shuttle cost data, taking into account the changes in technology since then. ESA used models mostly based on European satellite and launcher cost data, taking into account the higher equipment and testing standards for human space flight. Most of NASA's and ESA s estimates for the Mars Direct case are comparable, but there are some important, consistent differences in the estimates for: 1) Large Structures and Thermal Control subsystems; 2) System Level Management, Engineering, Product Assurance and Assembly, Integration and Test/Verification activities; 3) Mission Control; 4) Space Agency Program Level

  5. Commercial Vessel Safety. Economic Costs. Appendix A. Estimation Procedures for Costs and Cost Impacts of Marine Safety Regulations.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1979-12-01

    Vessel Delays at the Hackensack River Portal Bridge (NOTE: These exercises are unpublished) I I7. It" VW49 Is. Oe6iuio"as Statement Cost-benefit... Engineering Economy, by Eugene L. Grant and W. G. Ireson, Ronald Press Company, 1960. F. Inflation Cost-benefit analysis is complicated by the fact prices...Alexandria, Virginia: Naval Facilities Engineering Command, June 1975. Hirshleifer, J., Investment, Interest and Capital. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice

  6. An Evaluation of the Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tools (ACEIT) System

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-09-01

    C~4p DTIC S ELECTE fl JAN12 19 .1R ~OF S%. B -U AN EVALUATION OF THE AUTOMATED COST ESTIMATING INTEGRATED TOOLS ( ACEIT ) SYSTEM THESIS Caroline L...Ohio go 91 022 AFIT/GCA/LSQ/89S-5 AN EVALUATION OF THE AUTOMATED COST ESTIMATING INTEGRATED TOOLS ( ACEIT ) SYSTEM THESIS Caroline L. Hanson Major, USAF...Department of Defense. AFIT/GCA/LSQ/89S-5 AN EVALUATION OF THE AUTOMATED COST ESTIMATING INTEGRATED TOOLS ( ACEIT ) SYSTEM THESIS Presented to the

  7. Cost estimation of HVDC transmission system of Bangka’s NPP candidates

    SciTech Connect

    Liun, Edwaren Suparman

    2014-09-30

    Regarding nuclear power plant development in Bangka Island, it can be estimated that produced power will be oversupply for the Bangka Island and needs to transmit to Sumatra or Java Island. The distance between the regions or islands causing considerable loss of power in transmission by alternating current, and a wide range of technical and economical issues. The objective of this paper addresses to economics analysis of direct current transmission system to overcome those technical problem. Direct current transmission has a stable characteristic, so that the power delivery from Bangka to Sumatra or Java in a large scale efficiently and reliably can be done. HVDC system costs depend on the power capacity applied to the system and length of the transmission line in addition to other variables that may be different.

  8. Cost estimate of hospital stays for premature newborns in a public tertiary hospital in Brazil

    PubMed Central

    Desgualdo, Claudia Maria; Riera, Rachel; Zucchi, Paola

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To estimate the direct costs of hospital stays for premature newborns in the Interlagos Hospital and Maternity Center in São Paulo, Brazil and to assess the difference between the amount reimbursed to the hospital by the Unified Health System and the real cost of care for each premature newborn. METHODS: A cost-estimate study in which hospital and professional costs were estimated for premature infants born at 22 to 36 weeks gestation during the calendar year of 2004 and surviving beyond one hour of age. Direct costs included hospital services, professional care, diagnoses and therapy, orthotics, prosthetics, special materials, and blood products. Costs were estimated using tables published by the Unified Health System and the Brasíndice as well as the list of medical procedures provided by the Brazilian Classification of Medical Procedures. RESULTS: The average direct cost of care for initial hospitalization of a premature newborn in 2004 was $2,386 USD. Total hospital expenses and professional services for all premature infants in this hospital were $227,000 and $69,500 USD, respectively. The costs for diagnostic testing and blood products for all premature infants totaled $22,440 and $1,833 USD. The daily average cost of a premature newborn weighing less than 1,000 g was $115 USD, and the daily average cost of a premature newborn weighing more than 2,500 g was $89 USD. Amounts reimbursed to the hospital by the Unified Health System corresponded to only 27.42% of the real cost of care. CONCLUSIONS: The cost of hospital stays for premature newborns was much greater than the amount reimbursed to the hospital by the Unified Health System. The highest costs corresponded to newborns with lower birth weight. Hospital costs progressively and discretely decreased as the newborns' weight increased. PMID:22012050

  9. Estimation of freak wave occurrence in shallow water regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kashima, Hiroaki

    2014-05-01

    In the last two decades, freak waves have become an important topic in engineering and science and are sometimes featured by a single and steep crest causing severe damage to offshore structures and vessels. An accurate estimation of maximum wave height and prediction of freak wave occurrence frequency is important for marine safety and ocean developments. According to several studies on freak waves, the deep-water third-order nonlinearity (quasi-resonant four-wave interactions) can lead to a significant enhancement of freak wave occurrence from normality. However, it is not clear the behavior of offshore generated freak waves shoaling to shallow water regions. In general, a numerical simulation based on Boussinesq model has been frequently and widely used to estimate wave transformation in shallow water regions and has high-level performance in the design of coast and harbor structures in Japan. However, it is difficult to describe the freak wave occurrence from deep to shallow water regions by the Boussinesq model because it can express only up to the second-order nonlinear interactions. There is a gap of governing equation between deep and shallow water regions from the extreme wave modeling point of view. It is necessary to investigate the aftereffects of generated freak waves by the third-order nonlinear interactions in deep water regions and their propagation to shallow water regions using the Boussinesq model. In this study, the model experiments in a wave tank and numerical simulations based on the Boussinesq model were conducted to estimate the freak wave occurrence from deep to shallow water regions. In the model experiments, the maximum wave height increases with an increase in kurtosis by the third-order nonlinear interactions in deep water regions. The dependence of kurtosis on freak wave occurrence weakens by the second-order nonlinear interactions associated with wave shoaling if dimensionless water depth kph becomes shallower than 1.363, which kp

  10. Estimation of regionalized compositions: A comparison of three methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pawlowsky, V.; Olea, R.A.; Davis, J.C.

    1995-01-01

    A regionalized composition is a random vector function whose components are positive and sum to a constant at every point of the sampling region. Consequently, the components of a regionalized composition are necessarily spatially correlated. This spatial dependence-induced by the constant sum constraint-is a spurious spatial correlation and may lead to misinterpretations of statistical analyses. Furthermore, the cross-covariance matrices of the regionalized composition are singular, as is the coefficient matrix of the cokriging system of equations. Three methods of performing estimation or prediction of a regionalized composition at unsampled points are discussed: (1) the direct approach of estimating each variable separately; (2) the basis method, which is applicable only when a random function is available that can he regarded as the size of the regionalized composition under study; (3) the logratio approach, using the additive-log-ratio transformation proposed by J. Aitchison, which allows statistical analysis of compositional data. We present a brief theoretical review of these three methods and compare them using compositional data from the Lyons West Oil Field in Kansas (USA). It is shown that, although there are no important numerical differences, the direct approach leads to invalid results, whereas the basis method and the additive-log-ratio approach are comparable. ?? 1995 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

  11. Estimated impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in India: effects of geographic and economic disparities.

    PubMed

    Rheingans, Richard; Anderson, John D; Anderson, Benjamin; Chakraborty, Poulomy; Atherly, Deborah; Pindolia, Deepa

    2014-08-11

    India accounts for 23% of global rotavirus mortality in under-five children, with more than 100,000 deaths from rotavirus annually. Introduction of a vaccine in India is considered to be the most effective intervention for preventing rotavirus mortality. Recent research suggests that there is considerable variation in rotavirus mortality burden across regional, gender and socio-economic subpopulations within India. In addition, there is potential variability in who would likely receive rotavirus vaccine if introduced. We use available household data to estimate heterogeneity in rotavirus mortality risk, vaccination benefits, and cost-effectiveness across geographic and socio-economic groups within India. We account for heterogeneity by modeling estimated three-dose routine vaccinations as a proxy for a generalized rotavirus vaccine, and mortality for subpopulations of children aggregated by region and state, socio-economic status and sex, separately. Results are presented for six geographic regions and for Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh, three high mortality states accounting for 56% of national mortality estimates. Impact estimates accounting for disparities predict rotavirus vaccine introduction will prevent 35,000 deaths at an average cost of $118/DALY averted (7292 INR/DALY averted). Rotavirus vaccines are most cost-effective for the poor living in high mortality regions and states. Reductions in geographic and socio-economic disparities based on regional estimates could prevent an additional 9400 deaths annually, while reductions in socio-economic disparities in the three highest morality states alone could prevent an additional 10,600 deaths annually. Understanding the impact of heterogeneity can help improve strategies to maximize the benefits of rotavirus vaccination introduction, leading to fewer lives lost as a result of rotavirus disease.

  12. Estimating the effect of hospital closure on areawide inpatient hospital costs: a preliminary model and application.

    PubMed Central

    Shepard, D S

    1983-01-01

    A preliminary model is developed for estimating the extent of savings, if any, likely to result from discontinuing a specific inpatient service. By examining the sources of referral to the discontinued service, the model estimates potential demand and how cases will be redistributed among remaining hospitals. This redistribution determines average cost per day in hospitals that receive these cases, relative to average cost per day of the discontinued service. The outflow rate, which measures the proportion of cases not absorbed in other acute care hospitals, is estimated as 30 percent for the average discontinuation. The marginal cost ratio, which relates marginal costs of cases absorbed in surrounding hospitals to the average costs in those hospitals, is estimated as 87 percent in the base case. The model was applied to the discontinuation of all inpatient services in the 75-bed Chelsea Memorial Hospital, near Boston, Massachusetts, using 1976 data. As the precise value of key parameters is uncertain, sensitivity analysis was used to explore a range of values. The most likely result is a small increase ($120,000) in the area's annual inpatient hospital costs, because many patients are referred to more costly teaching hospitals. A similar situation may arise with other urban closures. For service discontinuations to generate savings, recipient hospitals must be low in costs, the outflow rate must be large, and the marginal cost ratio must be low. PMID:6668181

  13. The social cost of rheumatoid arthritis in Italy: the results of an estimation exercise.

    PubMed

    Turchetti, G; Bellelli, S; Mosca, M

    2014-03-14

    The objective of this study is to estimate the mean annual social cost per adult person and the total social cost of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in Italy. A literature review was performed by searching primary economic studies on adults in order to collect cost data of RA in Italy in the last decade. The review results were merged with data of institutional sources for estimating - following the methodological steps of the cost of illness analysis - the social cost of RA in Italy. The mean annual social cost of RA was € 13,595 per adult patient in Italy. Affecting 259,795 persons, RA determines a social cost of € 3.5 billions in Italy. Non-medical direct cost and indirect cost represent the main cost items (48% and 31%) of the total social cost of RA in Italy. Based on these results, it appears evident that the assessment of the economic burden of RA solely based on direct medical costs evaluation gives a limited view of the phenomenon.

  14. Technology Cost and Schedule Estimation (TCASE) Final Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wallace, Jon; Schaffer, Mark

    2015-01-01

    During the 2014-2015 project year, the focus of the TCASE project has shifted from collection of historical data from many sources to securing a data pipeline between TCASE and NASA's widely used TechPort system. TCASE v1.0 implements a data import solution that was achievable within the project scope, while still providing the basis for a long-term ability to keep TCASE in sync with TechPort. Conclusion: TCASE data quantity is adequate and the established data pipeline will enable future growth. Data quality is now highly dependent the quality of data in TechPort. Recommendation: Technology development organizations within NASA should continue to work closely with project/program data tracking and archiving efforts (e.g. TechPort) to ensure that the right data is being captured at the appropriate quality level. TCASE would greatly benefit, for example, if project cost/budget information was included in TechPort in the future.

  15. Statistical estimation of service cracks and maintenance cost for aircraft structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yang, J.-N.

    1975-01-01

    A method is developed for the statistical estimation of the number of cracks to be repaired in service as well as the repair and the maintenance costs. The present approach accounts for the statistical distribution of the initial crack size, the statistical nature of the NDI technique used for detecting the crack, and the renewal process for the crack propagation of repaired cracks. The mean and the standard deviation of the cumulative number of cracks to be repaired are computed as a function of service time. The statistics of the costs of repair and maintenance, expressed in terms of the percentage of the cost of replacement, are estimated as a function of service time. The results of the present study provide relevant information for the decision of fleet management, the estimation of life cycle cost, and procurement specifications. The present study is essential to the design and cost optimization of aircraft structures.

  16. Bureau of mines cost estimating system handbook (in two parts). 1. Surface and underground mining

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1987-01-01

    The handbook provides a convenient costing procedure based on the summation of the costs for unit processes required in any particular mining or mineral processing operation. The costing handbook consists of a series of costing sections, each corresponding to a specific mining unit process. Contained within each section is the methodology to estimate either the capital or operating cost for that unit process. The unit process sections may be used to generate, in January 1984 dollars, costs through the use of either costing curves or formulae representing the prevailing technology. Coverage for surface mining includes dredging, quarrying, strip mining, and open pit mining. The underground mining includes individual development sections for drifting, raising, shaft sinking, stope development, various mining methods, underground mine haulage, general plant, and underground mine administrative cost.

  17. Estimating the human recovery costs of seriously injured road crash casualties.

    PubMed

    Bambach, M R; Mitchell, R J

    2015-12-01

    Road crashes result in substantial trauma and costs to societies around the world. Robust costing methods are an important tool to estimate costs associated with road trauma, and are key inputs into policy development and cost-benefit analysis for road safety programmes and infrastructure projects. With an expanding focus on seriously injured road crash casualties, in addition to the long standing focus on fatalities, methods for costing seriously injured casualties are becoming increasingly important. Some road safety agencies are defining a seriously injured casualty as an individual that was admitted to hospital following a road crash, and as a result, hospital separation data provide substantial potential for estimating the costs associated with seriously injured road crash casualties. The aim of this study is to establish techniques for estimating the human recovery costs of (non-fatal) seriously injured road crash casualties directly from hospital separation data. An individuals' road crash-related hospitalisation record and their personal injury insurance claim were linked for road crashes that occurred in New South Wales, Australia. These records provided the means for estimating all of the costs to the casualty directly related to their recovery from their injuries. A total of 10,897 seriously injured road crash casualties were identified and four methods for estimating their recovery costs were examined, using either unit record or aggregated hospital separation data. The methods are shown to provide robust techniques for estimating the human recovery costs of seriously injured road crash casualties, that may prove useful for identifying, implementing and evaluating safety programmes intended to reduce the incidence of road crash-related serious injuries.

  18. Cost and price estimate of Brayton and Stirling engines in selected production volumes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fortgang, H. R.; Mayers, H. F.

    1980-01-01

    The methods used to determine the production costs and required selling price of Brayton and Stirling engines modified for use in solar power conversion units are presented. Each engine part, component and assembly was examined and evaluated to determine the costs of its material and the method of manufacture based on specific annual production volumes. Cost estimates are presented for both the Stirling and Brayton engines in annual production volumes of 1,000, 25,000, 100,000 and 400,000. At annual production volumes above 50,000 units, the costs of both engines are similar, although the Stirling engine costs are somewhat lower. It is concluded that modifications to both the Brayton and Stirling engine designs could reduce the estimated costs.

  19. Preliminary Estimates of Performance and Cost of Mercury Control Technology Applications on Electric Utility Boilers.

    PubMed

    Srivastava, Ravi K; Sedman, Charles B; Kilgroe, James D; Smith, Dennis; Renninger, Scott

    2001-10-01

    Under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) determined that regulation of mercury emissions from coal-fired power plants is appropriate and necessary. To aid in this determination, preliminary estimates of the performance and cost of powdered activated carbon (PAC) injection-based mercury control technologies were developed. This paper presents these estimates and develops projections of costs for future applications. Cost estimates were developed using PAC to achieve a minimum of 80% mercury removal at plants using electrostatic precipitators and a minimum of 90% removal at plants using fabric filters. These estimates ranged from 0.305 to 3.783 mills/kWh. However, the higher costs were associated with a minority of plants using hot-side electrostatic precipitators (HESPs). If these costs are excluded, the estimates range from 0.305 to 1.915 mills/kWh. Cost projections developed using a composite lime-PAC sorbent for mercury removal ranged from 0.183 to 2.270 mills/kWh, with the higher costs being associated with a minority of plants that used HESPs.

  20. Preliminary estimates of performance and cost of mercury control technology applications on electric utility boilers.

    PubMed

    Srivastava, R K; Sedman, C B; Kilgroe, J D; Smith, D; Renninger, S

    2001-10-01

    Under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) determined that regulation of mercury emissions from coal-fired power plants is appropriate and necessary. To aid in this determination, preliminary estimates of the performance and cost of powdered activated carbon (PAC) injection-based mercury control technologies were developed. This paper presents these estimates and develops projections of costs for future applications. Cost estimates were developed using PAC to achieve a minimum of 80% mercury removal at plants using electrostatic precipitators and a minimum of 90% removal at plants using fabric filters. These estimates ranged from 0.305 to 3.783 mills/kWh. However, the higher costs were associated with a minority of plants using hot-side electrostatic precipitators (HESPs). If these costs are excluded, the estimates range from 0.305 to 1.915 mills/kWh. Cost projections developed using a composite lime-PAC sorbent for mercury removal ranged from 0.183 to 2.270 mills/kWh, with the higher costs being associated with a minority of plants that used HESPs.

  1. Preliminary Estimates of Performance and Cost of Mercury Control Technology Applications on Electric Utility Boilers.

    PubMed

    Srivastava, Ravi K; Sedman, Charles B; Kilgroe, James D; Smith, Dennis; Renninger, Scott

    2001-10-01

    Under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) determined that regulation of mercury emissions from coal-fired power plants is appropriate and necessary. To aid in this determination, preliminary estimates of the performance and cost of powdered activated carbon (PAC) injection-based mercury control technologies were developed. This paper presents these estimates and develops projections of costs for future applications. Cost estimates were developed using PAC to achieve a minimum of 80% mercury removal at plants using electrostatic precipitators and a minimum of 90% removal at plants using fabric filters. These estimates ranged from 0.305 to 3.783 mills/kWh. However, the higher costs were associated with a minority of plants using hot-side electrostatic precipitators (HESPs). If these costs are excluded, the estimates range from 0.305 to 1.915 mills/kWh. Cost projections developed using a composite lime-PAC sor-bent for mercury removal ranged from 0.183 to 2.270 mills/kWh, with the higher costs being associated with a minority of plants that used HESPs.

  2. The cost of crime to society: new crime-specific estimates for policy and program evaluation.

    PubMed

    McCollister, Kathryn E; French, Michael T; Fang, Hai

    2010-04-01

    Estimating the cost to society of individual crimes is essential to the economic evaluation of many social programs, such as substance abuse treatment and community policing. A review of the crime-costing literature reveals multiple sources, including published articles and government reports, which collectively represent the alternative approaches for estimating the economic losses associated with criminal activity. Many of these sources are based upon data that are more than 10 years old, indicating a need for updated figures. This study presents a comprehensive methodology for calculating the cost to society of various criminal acts. Tangible and intangible losses are estimated using the most current data available. The selected approach, which incorporates both the cost-of-illness and the jury compensation methods, yields cost estimates for more than a dozen major crime categories, including several categories not found in previous studies. Updated crime cost estimates can help government agencies and other organizations execute more prudent policy evaluations, particularly benefit-cost analyses of substance abuse treatment or other interventions that reduce crime.

  3. Estimation of attenuation characteristics of Aswan reservoir region, Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukhopadhyay, S.; Singh, Birinder; Mohamed, H.

    2016-01-01

    The attenuation characteristics of Aswan reservoir region in Egypt was estimated using microearthquakes records. Frequency-dependent attenuation characteristic of S wave was estimated using coda normalization method. The evaluated quality factor ( Q s ) shows strong frequency dependence with its value increasing with increasing frequency. For Aswan region, the average frequency-dependent relation is given by Q s = (34.2 ± 2.9)f(1.023 ± 0.107). The low values of Q s lie within those observed for seismically active regions of the world, although the study area is seismically moderately active and known to be a region where reservoir-induced seismicity occurs. The low value of Q s would mean that the medium is highly heterogeneous. Separation of intrinsic and scattering Q was carried out using estimated Q s values and values of coda Q ( Q c ) estimated earlier by other workers from the same data set. It is observed from this that S and coda wave attenuation is primarily controlled by intrinsic attenuation at 1-Hz frequency. At higher frequencies, intrinsic and scattering attenuations contribute almost equally as seismic albedo at 1-Hz frequency is 0.04, and at higher frequencies, it varies between 0.34 and 0.55. Extinction length varies between 16.4 and 23.6 km. The frequency-dependent relationship for scattering Q ( Q sc ) and intrinsic Q ( Q i ) are Q sc = (699.3 ± 334.5) f (0.13 ± 0.06) and Q i = (52.9 ± 5.6) f (1.09 ± 0.03).

  4. Estimating the Economic Benefits of Regional Ocean Observing Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-04-01

    Approved for Distribution: Andrew Solow , Director Marine Policy Center Estimating the Economic Benefits of Regional Ocean Observing Systems Report to...models that produce "nowcasts" or forecasts. See R. Adams, M. Brown, C. Colgan, N. Flemming, H. Kite-Powell, B. McCarl, J. Mjelde, A. Solow , T...like to acknowledge helpful discussions held with the following personnel: Ken Schaudt, Marathon; Norman Guinasso, Jr., Texas A&M University; Robert

  5. How Much Does Intellectual Disability Really Cost? First Estimates for Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doran, Christopher M.; Einfeld, Stewart L.; Madden, Rosamond H.; Otim, Michael; Horstead, Sian K.; Ellis, Louise A.; Emerson, Eric

    2012-01-01

    Background: Given the paucity of relevant data, this study estimates the cost of intellectual disability (ID) to families and the government in Australia. Method: Family costs were collected via the Client Service Receipt Inventory, recording information relating to service use and personal expense as a consequence of ID. Government expenditure on…

  6. The Budding SV3: Estimating the Cost of Architectural Growth Early in the Life Cycle

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-04-30

    Systems Engineering Cost Model ) and the SV3. Based on its stochastic nature, this procedure is further implemented as a Monte Carlo simulation ...ABSTRACT As the systems engineering community continues to mature model -based approaches exciting opportunities for sophisticated, computational analysis...we estimate the marginal increase in systems engineering effort via an explicit connection between the open academic cost model COSYSMO (Constructive

  7. 33 CFR 241.5 - Procedures for estimating the alternative cost-share.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... PROVISION § 241.5 Procedures for estimating the alternative cost-share. (a) Step one, the benefits test... factor determined in § 241.5(a)(1), when expressed as a percentage, is greater than the standard level of cost-sharing, the standard level will apply. (3) If the factor determined in § 241.5(a)(1),...

  8. 33 CFR 241.5 - Procedures for estimating the alternative cost-share.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... PROVISION § 241.5 Procedures for estimating the alternative cost-share. (a) Step one, the benefits test...) Calculate the ratio of flood control benefits (developed using the Water Resources Council's Principles and... costs. Divide the result by four. For example, if the project's (or separable element's)...

  9. Preliminary weight and cost estimates for transport aircraft composite structural design concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1973-01-01

    Preliminary weight and cost estimates have been prepared for design concepts utilized for a transonic long range transport airframe with extensive applications of advanced composite materials. The design concepts, manufacturing approach, and anticipated details of manufacturing cost reflected in the composite airframe are substantially different from those found in conventional metal structure and offer further evidence of the advantages of advanced composite materials.

  10. A model for estimating the cost impact of schedule perturbations on aerospace research and development programs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bishop, D. F.

    1972-01-01

    The problem of determining the cost impact attributable to perturbations in an aerospace R and D program schedule is discussed in terms of the diminishing availability of funds. The methodology from which a model is presented for updating R and D cost estimates as a function of perturbations in program time is presented.

  11. Guidelines for the Estimation of Program Costs at Macomb County Community College. Project No. 78072.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dulaney-Sorochak, Jeanne

    The Education Amendments of 1976 require that any educational institution must be able to report the full cost of attending that institution to any student who requests the information. This report outlines guidelines for estimating the cost to the student attending Macomb County Community College. Tuition and living expenses, with required fees…

  12. Two Computer Programs for Equipment Cost Estimation and Economic Evaluation of Chemical Processes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kuri, Carlos J.; Corripio, Armando B.

    1984-01-01

    Describes two computer programs for use in process design courses: an easy-to-use equipment cost estimation program based on latest cost correlations available and an economic evaluation program which calculates two profitability indices. Comparisons between programed and hand-calculated results are included. (JM)

  13. Estimating the Full Cost of Family-Financed Time Inputs to Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levine, Victor

    This paper presents a methodology for estimating the full cost of parental time allocated to child-care activities at home. Building upon the human capital hypothesis, a model is developed in which the cost of an hour diverted from labor market activity is seen as consisting of three components: 1) direct wages foregone; 2) investments in…

  14. Simple calculator to estimate the medical cost of diabetes in sub-Saharan Africa

    PubMed Central

    Alouki, Koffi; Delisle, Hélène; Besançon, Stéphane; Baldé, Naby; Sidibé-Traoré, Assa; Drabo, Joseph; Djrolo, François; Mbanya, Jean-Claude; Halimi, Serge

    2015-01-01

    AIM: To design a medical cost calculator and show that diabetes care is beyond reach of the majority particularly patients with complications. METHODS: Out-of-pocket expenditures of patients for medical treatment of type-2 diabetes were estimated based on price data collected in Benin, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Mali. A detailed protocol for realistic medical care of diabetes and its complications in the African context was defined. Care components were based on existing guidelines, published data and clinical experience. Prices were obtained in public and private health facilities. The cost calculator used Excel. The cost for basic management of uncomplicated diabetes was calculated per person and per year. Incremental costs were also computed per annum for chronic complications and per episode for acute complications. RESULTS: Wide variations of estimated care costs were observed among countries and between the public and private healthcare system. The minimum estimated cost for the treatment of uncomplicated diabetes (in the public sector) would amount to 21%-34% of the country’s gross national income per capita, 26%-47% in the presence of retinopathy, and above 70% for nephropathy, the most expensive complication. CONCLUSION: The study provided objective evidence for the exorbitant medical cost of diabetes considering that no medical insurance is available in the study countries. Although the calculator only estimates the cost of inaction, it is innovative and of interest for several stakeholders. PMID:26617974

  15. The Effect of Infrastructure Sharing in Estimating Operations Cost of Future Space Transportation Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sundaram, Meenakshi

    2005-01-01

    NASA and the aerospace industry are extremely serious about reducing the cost and improving the performance of launch vehicles both manned or unmanned. In the aerospace industry, sharing infrastructure for manufacturing more than one type spacecraft is becoming a trend to achieve economy of scale. An example is the Boeing Decatur facility where both Delta II and Delta IV launch vehicles are made. The author is not sure how Boeing estimates the costs of each spacecraft made in the same facility. Regardless of how a contractor estimates the cost, NASA in its popular cost estimating tool, NASA Air force Cost Modeling (NAFCOM) has to have a method built in to account for the effect of infrastructure sharing. Since there is no provision in the most recent version of NAFCOM2002 to take care of this, it has been found by the Engineering Cost Community at MSFC that the tool overestimates the manufacturing cost by as much as 30%. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop a methodology to assess the impact of infrastructure sharing so that better operations cost estimates may be made.

  16. Model for Estimating Life-Cycle Costs Associated with Noise-Induced Hearing Loss

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-01-10

    decisions. Currently, the cash outlays by the government for noise-induced hearing loss ( NIHL ) caused to service personnel by loud systems and spaces are...un-accounted for in estimates of life-cycle costs. A companion report demonstrated that a NIHL prediction algorithm from the American National...compensation costs of the predicted NIHL in this population. A numerical example of the algorithm operation was included. Using cost values applicable to

  17. ESTIMATING TREATMENT EFFECTS ON HEALTHCARE COSTS UNDER EXOGENEITY: IS THERE A 'MAGIC BULLET'?

    PubMed

    Basu, Anirban; Polsky, Daniel; Manning, Willard G

    2011-07-01

    Methods for estimating average treatment effects, under the assumption of no unmeasured confounders, include regression models; propensity score adjustments using stratification, weighting, or matching; and doubly robust estimators (a combination of both). Researchers continue to debate about the best estimator for outcomes such as health care cost data, as they are usually characterized by an asymmetric distribution and heterogeneous treatment effects,. Challenges in finding the right specifications for regression models are well documented in the literature. Propensity score estimators are proposed as alternatives to overcoming these challenges. Using simulations, we find that in moderate size samples (n= 5000), balancing on propensity scores that are estimated from saturated specifications can balance the covariate means across treatment arms but fails to balance higher-order moments and covariances amongst covariates. Therefore, unlike regression model, even if a formal model for outcomes is not required, propensity score estimators can be inefficient at best and biased at worst for health care cost data. Our simulation study, designed to take a 'proof by contradiction' approach, proves that no one estimator can be considered the best under all data generating processes for outcomes such as costs. The inverse-propensity weighted estimator is most likely to be unbiased under alternate data generating processes but is prone to bias under misspecification of the propensity score model and is inefficient compared to an unbiased regression estimator. Our results show that there are no 'magic bullets' when it comes to estimating treatment effects in health care costs. Care should be taken before naively applying any one estimator to estimate average treatment effects in these data. We illustrate the performance of alternative methods in a cost dataset on breast cancer treatment.

  18. Estimating Development Cost for a Tailored Interactive Computer Program to Enhance Colorectal Cancer Screening Compliance

    PubMed Central

    Lairson, David R.; Chang, Yu-Chia; Bettencourt, Judith L.; Vernon, Sally W.; Greisinger, Anthony

    2006-01-01

    The authors used an actual-work estimate method to estimate the cost of developing a tailored interactive computer education program to improve compliance with colorectal cancer screening guidelines in a large multi-specialty group medical practice. Resource use was prospectively collected from time logs, administrative records, and a design and computing subcontract. Sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the uncertainty of the overhead cost rate and other parameters. The cost of developing the system was $328,866. The development cost was $52.79 per patient when amortized over a 7-year period with a cohort of 1,000 persons. About 20% of the cost was incurred in defining the theoretic framework and supporting literature, constructing the variables and survey, and conducting focus groups. About 41% of the cost was for developing the messages, algorithms, and constructing program elements, and the remaining cost was to create and test the computer education program. About 69% of the cost was attributable to personnel expenses. Development cost is rarely estimated but is important for feasibility studies and ex-ante economic evaluations of alternative interventions. The findings from this study may aid decision makers in planning, assessing, budgeting, and pricing development of tailored interactive computer-based interventions. PMID:16799126

  19. Estimating development cost for a tailored interactive computer program to enhance colorectal cancer screening compliance.

    PubMed

    Lairson, David R; Chang, Yu-Chia; Bettencourt, Judith L; Vernon, Sally W; Greisinger, Anthony

    2006-01-01

    The authors used an actual-work estimate method to estimate the cost of developing a tailored interactive computer education program to improve compliance with colorectal cancer screening guidelines in a large multi-specialty group medical practice. Resource use was prospectively collected from time logs, administrative records, and a design and computing subcontract. Sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the uncertainty of the overhead cost rate and other parameters. The cost of developing the system was Dollars 328,866. The development cost was Dollars 52.79 per patient when amortized over a 7-year period with a cohort of 1,000 persons. About 20% of the cost was incurred in defining the theoretic framework and supporting literature, constructing the variables and survey, and conducting focus groups. About 41% of the cost was for developing the messages, algorithms, and constructing program elements, and the remaining cost was to create and test the computer education program. About 69% of the cost was attributable to personnel expenses. Development cost is rarely estimated but is important for feasibility studies and ex-ante economic evaluations of alternative interventions. The findings from this study may aid decision makers in planning, assessing, budgeting, and pricing development of tailored interactive computer-based interventions.

  20. Estimates of the national benefits and costs of improving ambient air quality

    SciTech Connect

    Brady, G.L.; Bower, B.T.; Lakhani, H.A.

    1983-04-01

    This paper examines the estimates of national benefits and national costs of ambient air quality improvement in the US for the period 1970 to 1978. Analysis must be at the micro-level for both receptors of pollution and the dischargers of residuals. Section 2 discusses techniques for estimating the national benefits from improving ambient air quality. The literature on national benefits to health (mortality and morbidity) and non-health (avoiding damages to materials, plants, crops, etc.) is critically reviewed in this section. For the period 1970 to 1978, the value of these benefits ranged from about $5 billion to $51 billion, with a point estimate of about $22 billion. The national cost estimates by the Council on Environmental Quality, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and McGraw-Hill are provided in section 2. Cost estimates must include not only the end-of-pipe treatment measures, but also the alternatives: changes in product specification, product mix, processes, etc. These types of responses are not generally considered in estimates of national costs of improving ambient air quality ranged from $8 to $9 billion in 1978 dollars. Section 4 concludes that the national benefits for improving ambient air quality exceed the national costs for the average and the high values of benefits, but not for the low estimates.

  1. F-16X MSIP (Multi-National Staged Improvement Program) Case Example: Operating and Support Cost Estimation Using VAMOSC (Visibility and Management of Operating and Support Costs).

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-26

    cats. 70M0 CrP -5763 Precision Location Major Now Avionics syatSM. Higher Strike System materiel and labor cost. Small (PLSS) radme may increase profile...MSIP maintenance material and labor costs are estimated using a bottoms-up cost factor estimation technique . A set of functional analogies for the MSIP

  2. The Cost of Universal Health Care in India: A Model Based Estimate

    PubMed Central

    Prinja, Shankar; Bahuguna, Pankaj; Pinto, Andrew D.; Sharma, Atul; Bharaj, Gursimer; Kumar, Vishal; Tripathy, Jaya Prasad; Kaur, Manmeet; Kumar, Rajesh

    2012-01-01

    Introduction As high out-of-pocket healthcare expenses pose heavy financial burden on the families, Government of India is considering a variety of financing and delivery options to universalize health care services. Hence, an estimate of the cost of delivering universal health care services is needed. Methods We developed a model to estimate recurrent and annual costs for providing health services through a mix of public and private providers in Chandigarh located in northern India. Necessary health services required to deliver good quality care were defined by the Indian Public Health Standards. National Sample Survey data was utilized to estimate disease burden. In addition, morbidity and treatment data was collected from two secondary and two tertiary care hospitals. The unit cost of treatment was estimated from the published literature. For diseases where data on treatment cost was not available, we collected data on standard treatment protocols and cost of care from local health providers. Results We estimate that the cost of universal health care delivery through the existing mix of public and private health institutions would be INR 1713 (USD 38, 95%CI USD 18–73) per person per annum in India. This cost would be 24% higher, if branded drugs are used. Extrapolation of these costs to entire country indicates that Indian government needs to spend 3.8% (2.1%–6.8%) of the GDP for universalizing health care services. Conclusion The cost of universal health care delivered through a combination of public and private providers is estimated to be INR 1713 per capita per year in India. Important issues such as delivery strategy for ensuring quality, reducing inequities in access, and managing the growth of health care demand need be explored. PMID:22299038

  3. Handbook of estimating data, factors, and procedures. [for manufacturing cost studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Freeman, L. M.

    1977-01-01

    Elements to be considered in estimating production costs are discussed in this manual. Guidelines, objectives, and methods for analyzing requirements and work structure are given. Time standards for specific specfic operations are listed for machining, sheet metal working, electroplating and metal treating; painting; silk screening, etching and encapsulating; coil winding; wire preparation and wiring; soldering; and the fabrication of etched circuits and terminal boards. The relation of the various elements of cost to the total cost as proposed for various programs by various contractors is compared with government estimates.

  4. Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 1: Executive summary

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gates, W. R.

    1983-01-01

    Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. The fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. STT R&D is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), dependng on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest.

  5. Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 1: Executive summary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gates, W. R.

    1983-02-01

    Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. The fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. STT R&D is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), dependng on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest.

  6. Using Data Envelopment Analysis to Improve Estimates of Higher Education Institution's Per-Student Education Costs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salerno, Carlo

    2006-01-01

    This paper puts forth a data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach to estimating higher education institutions' per-student education costs (PSCs) in an effort to redress a number of methodological problems endemic to such estimations, particularly the allocation of shared expenditures between education and other institutional activities. An example…

  7. A national hypertension treatment program in Germany and its estimated impact on costs, life expectancy, and cost-effectiveness.

    PubMed

    Gandjour, Afschin; Stock, Stephanie

    2007-10-01

    Almost 15 million Germans may suffer from untreated hypertension. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a national hypertension treatment program compared to no program. A Markov decision model from the perspective of the statutory health insurance (SHI) was built. All data were taken from secondary sources. The target population consists of hypertensive male and female patients at high or low risk for cardiovascular events at different age groups (40-49, 50-59, and 60-69 years). The analysis shows fairly moderate cost-effectiveness ratios even for low-risk groups (less than 12,000 euros per life year gained). In women at high risk antihypertensive treatment even leads to savings. This suggests that a national hypertension treatment program provides good value for money. Given the considerable costs of the program itself, any savings from avoiding long-term consequences of hypertension are likely to be offset, however.

  8. Review of cost estimates for reducing CO2 emissions. Final report, Task 9

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1990-10-01

    Since the ground breaking work of William Nordhaus in 1977, cost estimates for reducing CO{sub 2} emissions have been developed by numerous groups. The various studies have reported sometimes widely divergent cost estimates for reducing CO{sub 2} emissions. Some recent analyses have indicated that large reductions in CO{sub 2} emissions could be achieved at zero or negative costs (e.g. Rocky Mountain Institute 1989). In contrast, a recent study by Alan Manne of Stanford and Richard Richels of the Electric Power Research Institute (Manne-Richels 1989) concluded that in the US the total discounted costs of reducing CO{sub 2} emissions by 20 percent below the 1990 level could be as much as 3.6 trillion dollars over the period from 1990 to 2100. Costs of this order of magnitude would represent about 5 percent of US GNP. The purpose of this briefing paper is to summarize the different cost estimates for CO{sub 2} emission reduction and to identify the key issues and assumptions that underlie these cost estimates.

  9. A Project Management Approach to Using Simulation for Cost Estimation on Large, Complex Software Development Projects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mizell, Carolyn; Malone, Linda

    2007-01-01

    It is very difficult for project managers to develop accurate cost and schedule estimates for large, complex software development projects. None of the approaches or tools available today can estimate the true cost of software with any high degree of accuracy early in a project. This paper provides an approach that utilizes a software development process simulation model that considers and conveys the level of uncertainty that exists when developing an initial estimate. A NASA project will be analyzed using simulation and data from the Software Engineering Laboratory to show the benefits of such an approach.

  10. Cost and size estimates for an electrochemical bulk energy storage concept

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Warshay, M.; Wright, L. O.

    1975-01-01

    Preliminary capital cost and size estimates were made for a titanium trichloride, titanium tetrachloride, ferric chloride, ferrous chloride redox-flow-cell electric power system. On the basis of these preliminary estimates plus other important considerations, this electrochemical system emerged as having great promise as a bulk energy storage system for power load leveling. The size of this system is less than two per cent of that of a comparable pumped hydroelectric plant. The estimated capital cost of a 10 MW, 60- and 85-MWh redox-flow system compared well with that of competing systems.

  11. Electric Power Interruption Cost Estimates for Individual Industries, Sectors and the U.S. Economy

    SciTech Connect

    Balducci, Patrick J.; Roop, Joseph M.; Schienbein, Lawrence A.; DeSteese, John G.; Weimar, Mark R.

    2003-05-16

    Distributed energy resources (DER) have been promoted as the least-cost approach to meeting steadily increasing energy demand. However, it is unclear whether DER deployment can maintain or improve the electric power supply reliability and quality currently available to consumers. This report addresses two key factors relating to this question: 1) characteristics of existing power supply reliability, and 2) costs resulting from supply interruptions characteristic of the existing power grid. Interruption cost data collected by the University of Saskatchewan was used in conjunction with data generated by the United States Department of Energy’s Annual Survey of Manufacturers, along with industry shares of gross domestic product (GDP) and gross output to derive interruption cost estimates for U.S. industries at the 2-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level. Interruption cost estimates are presented as a function of outage duration (e.g., 20 minutes, 1-hour, 3-hour), and are normalized in terms of dollars per peak kW.

  12. Estimating the cost of health care-associated infections: mind your p's and q's.

    PubMed

    Graves, Nicholas; Harbarth, Stephan; Beyersmann, Jan; Barnett, Adrian; Halton, Kate; Cooper, Ben

    2010-04-01

    Monetary valuations of the economic cost of health care-associated infections (HAIs) are important for decision making and should be estimated accurately. Erroneously high estimates of costs, designed to jolt decision makers into action, may do more harm than good in the struggle to attract funding for infection control. Expectations among policy makers might be raised, and then they are disappointed when the reduction in the number of HAIs does not yield the anticipated cost saving. For this article, we critically review the field and discuss 3 questions. Why measure the cost of an HAI? What outcome should be used to measure the cost of an HAI? What is the best method for making this measurement? The aim is to encourage researchers to collect and then disseminate information that accurately guides decisions about the economic value of expanding or changing current infection control activities.

  13. Estimating the Cost of Care for Emergency Department Syncope Patients: Comparison of Three Models

    PubMed Central

    Probst, Marc A.; McConnell, John K.; Weiss, Robert E.; Laurie, Amber L.; Yagapen, Annick N.; Lin, Michelle P.; Caterino, Jeffrey M.; Shah, Manish N.; Sun, Benjamin C.

    2017-01-01

    Introduction We sought to compare three hospital cost-estimation models for patients undergoing evaluation for unexplained syncope using hospital cost data. Developing such a model would allow researchers to assess the value of novel clinical algorithms for syncope management. Methods We collected complete health services data, including disposition, testing, and length of stay (LOS), on 67 adult patients (age 60 years and older) who presented to the emergency department (ED) with syncope at a single hospital. Patients were excluded if a serious medical condition was identified. We created three hospital cost-estimation models to estimate facility costs: V1, unadjusted Medicare payments for observation and/or hospital admission; V2: modified Medicare payment, prorated by LOS in calendar days; and V3: modified Medicare payment, prorated by LOS in hours. Total hospital costs included unadjusted Medicare payments for diagnostic testing and estimated facility costs. We plotted these estimates against actual cost data from the hospital finance department, and performed correlation and regression analyses. Results Of the three models, V3 consistently outperformed the others with regard to correlation and goodness of fit. The Pearson correlation coefficient for V3 was 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81, 0.92) with an R-square value of 0.77 and a linear regression coefficient of 0.87 (95% CI 0.76, 0.99). Conclusion Using basic health services data, it is possible to accurately estimate hospital costs for older adults undergoing a hospital-based evaluation for unexplained syncope. This methodology could help assess the potential economic impact of implementing novel clinical algorithms for ED syncope. PMID:28210361

  14. Comparative analysis of monetary estimates of external environmental costs associated with combustion of fossil fuels

    SciTech Connect

    Koomey, J.

    1990-07-01

    Public utility commissions in a number of states have begun to explicitly treat costs of environmental externalities in the resource planning and acquisition process (Cohen et al. 1990). This paper compares ten different estimates and regulatory determinations of external environmental costs associated with fossil fuel combustion, using consistent assumptions about combustion efficiency, emissions factors, and resource costs. This consistent comparison is useful because it makes explicit the effects of various assumptions. This paper uses the results of the comparison to illustrate pitfalls in calculation of external environmental costs, and to derive lessons for design of policies to incorporate these externalities into resource planning. 38 refs., 2 figs., 10 tabs.

  15. Development of weight and cost estimates for lifting surfaces with active controls

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, R. D.; Flora, C. C.; Nelson, R. M.; Raymond, E. T.; Vincent, J. H.

    1976-01-01

    Equations and methodology were developed for estimating the weight and cost incrementals due to active controls added to the wing and horizontal tail of a subsonic transport airplane. The methods are sufficiently generalized to be suitable for preliminary design. Supporting methodology and input specifications for the weight and cost equations are provided. The weight and cost equations are structured to be flexible in terms of the active control technology (ACT) flight control system specification. In order to present a self-contained package, methodology is also presented for generating ACT flight control system characteristics for the weight and cost equations. Use of the methodology is illustrated.

  16. Cost and size estimates for an electrochemical bulk energy storage concept

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Warshay, M.; Wright, L. O.

    1975-01-01

    Preliminary capital cost and size estimates were made for an electrochemical bulk energy storage concept. The electrochemical system considered was an electrically rechargeable flow cell with a redox couple. On the basis of preliminary capital cost estimates, size estimates, and several other important considerations, the redox-flow-cell system emerges as having great promise as a bulk energy storage system for power load leveling. The size of this system would be less than 2 percent of that of a comparable pumped hydroelectric plant. The capital cost of a 10-megawatt, 60- and 85-megawatt-hour redox system is estimated to be $190 to $330 per kilowatt. The other important features of the redox system contributing to its load leveling application are its low adverse environmental impact, its high efficiency, its apparent absence of electrochemically-related cycle life limitations, and its fast response.

  17. Image registration under illumination variations using region-based confidence weighted M-estimators.

    PubMed

    Fouad, Mohamed M; Dansereau, Richard M; Whitehead, Anthony D

    2012-03-01

    We present an image registration model for image sets with arbitrarily shaped local illumination variations between images. Any nongeometric variations tend to degrade the geometric registration precision and impact subsequent processing. Traditional image registration approaches do not typically account for changes and movement of light sources, which result in interimage illumination differences with arbitrary shape. In addition, these approaches typically use a least-square estimator that is sensitive to outliers, where interimage illumination variations are often large enough to act as outliers. In this paper, we propose an image registration approach that compensates for arbitrarily shaped interimage illumination variations, which are processed using robust M -estimators tuned to that region. Each M-estimator for each illumination region has a distinct cost function by which small and large interimage residuals are unevenly penalized. Since the segmentation of the interimage illumination variations may not be perfect, a segmentation confidence weighting is also imposed to reduce the negative effect of mis-segmentation around illumination region boundaries. The proposed approach is cast in an iterative coarse-to-fine framework, which allows a convergence rate similar to competing intensity-based image registration approaches. The overall proposed approach is presented in a general framework, but experimental results use the bisquare M-estimator with region segmentation confidence weighting. A nearly tenfold improvement in subpixel registration precision is seen with the proposed technique when convergence is attained, as compared with competing techniques using both simulated and real data sets with interimage illumination variations.

  18. Health care costs and functional outcomes of road traffic injuries in the Lazio region of Italy.

    PubMed

    Chini, Francesco; Farchi, Sara; Camilloni, Laura; Giarrizzo, Maria Letizia; Giorgi Rossi, Paolo

    2016-01-01

    The economic consequences of road traffic injuries (RTIs) are very important in terms of health care costs. The aim of this study is to provide estimates of health care costs of non-fatal RTIs and to estimate functional outcomes using in-hospital rehabilitation data. We identified all emergency department (ED) visits related to RTI during 2008 and then linked them with hospital discharges and rehabilitation admissions, health care costs following RTI were estimated from the integrated database. We performed an epidemiological evaluation of RTI with a comprehensive description of functional outcomes at 6 months. Health care costs have been estimated at about €80 million with a per person cost of €522. About 18% of the total cost was due to rehabilitation treatments. In multivariate analysis the variables that correlated better with higher total health care costs were: older age, injury severity, presence of spinal lesion. Patients requiring rehabilitation were: the elderly, patients suffering from a spinal cord injury and leg injuries. This study provides consistent health care cost estimates of RTI using administrative databases and it shows a picture of functional outcomes after RTI. Further research is needed for the estimation of other components of the total cost of RTI.

  19. Noninvasive method of estimating human newborn regional cerebral blood flow

    SciTech Connect

    Younkin, D.P.; Reivich, M.; Jaggi, J.; Obrist, W.; Delivoria-Papadopoulos, M.

    1982-12-01

    A noninvasive method of estimating regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) in premature and full-term babies has been developed. Based on a modification of the /sup 133/Xe inhalation rCBF technique, this method uses eight extracranial NaI scintillation detectors and an i.v. bolus injection of /sup 133/Xe (approximately 0.5 mCi/kg). Arterial xenon concentration was estimated with an external chest detector. Cerebral blood flow was measured in 15 healthy, neurologically normal premature infants. Using Obrist's method of two-compartment analysis, normal values were calculated for flow in both compartments, relative weight and fractional flow in the first compartment (gray matter), initial slope of gray matter blood flow, mean cerebral blood flow, and initial slope index of mean cerebral blood flow. The application of this technique to newborns, its relative advantages, and its potential uses are discussed.

  20. Improvements on foF1 estimation at polar regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sabbagh, Dario; Scotto, Carlo; Sgrigna, Vittorio

    2016-04-01

    The analysis of a sample of polar ionograms reveals that the DuCharme and Petrie empirical formula often fails in the foF1 estimation at polar regions. A study of the discrepancies between modeled and observed foF1 values is presented, using a data set of Antarctic ionograms from different stations. Such discrepancies have been quantitatively evaluated. Based on this study a correction to the DuCharme and Petrie formula is proposed. This correction is performed to be implemented in an improved version of Autoscala software for a particular ionospheric station, in the frame of AUSPICIO (Automatic Interpretation of Polar Ionograms and Cooperative Ionospheric Observations) project.

  1. Cost estimates for near-term depolyment of advanced traffic management systems. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Stevens, S.S.; Chin, S.M.

    1993-02-15

    The objective of this study is to provide cost est engineering, design, installation, operation and maintenance of Advanced Traffic Management Systems (ATMS) in the largest 75 metropolitan areas in the United States. This report gives estimates for deployment costs for ATMS in the next five years, subject to the qualifications and caveats set out in following paragraphs. The report considers infrastructure components required to realize fully a functional ATMS over each of two highway networks (as discussed in the Section describing our general assumptions) under each of the four architectures identified in the MITRE Intelligent Vehicle Highway Systems (IVHS) Architecture studies. The architectures are summarized in this report in Table 2. Estimates are given for eight combinations of highway networks and architectures. We estimate that it will cost between $8.5 Billion (minimal network) and $26 Billion (augmented network) to proceed immediately with deployment of ATMS in the largest 75 metropolitan areas. Costs are given in 1992 dollars, and are not adjusted for future inflation. Our estimates are based partially on completed project costs, which have been adjusted to 1992 dollars. We assume that a particular architecture will be chosen; projected costs are broken by architecture.

  2. Coal gasification systems engineering and analysis. Appendix E: Cost estimation and economic evaluation methodology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1980-01-01

    The cost estimation and economic evaluation methodologies presented are consistent with industry practice for assessing capital investment requirements and operating costs of coal conversion systems. All values stated are based on January, 1980 dollars with appropriate recognition of the time value of money. Evaluation of project economic feasibility can be considered a two step process (subject to considerable refinement). First, the costs of the project must be quantified and second, the price at which the product can be manufacturd must be determined. These two major categories are discussed. The summary of methodology is divided into five parts: (1) systems costs, (2)instant plant costs, (3) annual operating costs, (4) escalation and discounting process, and (5) product pricing.

  3. Multiclass support vector machines with example-dependent costs applied to plankton biomass estimation.

    PubMed

    González, Pablo; Álvarez, Eva; Barranquero, Jose; Díez, Jorge; González-Quirós, Rafael; Nogueira, Enrique; López-Urrutia, Ángel; del Coz, Juan José

    2013-11-01

    In many applications, the mistakes made by an automatic classifier are not equal, they have different costs. These problems may be solved using a cost-sensitive learning approach. The main idea is not to minimize the number of errors, but the total cost produced by such mistakes. This brief presents a new multiclass cost-sensitive algorithm, in which each example has attached its corresponding misclassification cost. Our proposal is theoretically well-founded and is designed to optimize cost-sensitive loss functions. This research was motivated by a real-world problem, the biomass estimation of several plankton taxonomic groups. In this particular application, our method improves the performance of traditional multiclass classification approaches that optimize the accuracy.

  4. An examination of sources of sensitivity of consumer surplus estimates in travel cost models.

    PubMed

    Blaine, Thomas W; Lichtkoppler, Frank R; Bader, Timothy J; Hartman, Travis J; Lucente, Joseph E

    2015-03-15

    We examine sensitivity of estimates of recreation demand using the Travel Cost Method (TCM) to four factors. Three of the four have been routinely and widely discussed in the TCM literature: a) Poisson verses negative binomial regression; b) application of Englin correction to account for endogenous stratification; c) truncation of the data set to eliminate outliers. A fourth issue we address has not been widely modeled: the potential effect on recreation demand of the interaction between income and travel cost. We provide a straightforward comparison of all four factors, analyzing the impact of each on regression parameters and consumer surplus estimates. Truncation has a modest effect on estimates obtained from the Poisson models but a radical effect on the estimates obtained by way of the negative binomial. Inclusion of an income-travel cost interaction term generally produces a more conservative but not a statistically significantly different estimate of consumer surplus in both Poisson and negative binomial models. It also generates broader confidence intervals. Application of truncation, the Englin correction and the income-travel cost interaction produced the most conservative estimates of consumer surplus and eliminated the statistical difference between the Poisson and the negative binomial. Use of the income-travel cost interaction term reveals that for visitors who face relatively low travel costs, the relationship between income and travel demand is negative, while it is positive for those who face high travel costs. This provides an explanation of the ambiguities on the findings regarding the role of income widely observed in the TCM literature. Our results suggest that policies that reduce access to publicly owned resources inordinately impact local low income recreationists and are contrary to environmental justice.

  5. Estimates of incidence and costs of intestinal infectious diseases in the United States.

    PubMed

    Garthright, W E; Archer, D L; Kvenberg, J E

    1988-01-01

    The incidence of acute episodes of intestinal infectious diseases in the United States was estimated through analysis of community-based studies and national interview surveys. Their differing results were reconciled by adjusting the study population age distributions in the community-based studies, by excluding those cases that also showed respiratory symptoms, and by accounting for structural differences in the surveys. The reconciliation process provided an estimate of 99 million acute cases of either vomiting or diarrhea, or both, each year in this country, half of which involved more than a full day of restricted activity. The analysis was limited to cases of acute gastrointestinal diseases with vomiting or diarrhea but without respiratory symptoms. Physicians were consulted for 8.2 million illnesses; 250,000 of these required hospitalization. In 1985, hospitalizations incurred $560 million in medical costs and $200 million in lost productivity. Nonhospitalized cases (7.9 million) for which physicians were consulted incurred $690 million in medical costs and $2.06 billion in lost productivity. More than 90 million cases for which no physician was consulted cost an estimated $19.5 billion in lost productivity. The estimates excluded such costs as death, pain and suffering, lost leisure time, financial losses to food establishments, and legal expenses. According to these estimates, medical costs and lost productivity from acute intestinal infectious diseases amount to a minimum of about $23 billion a year in the United States.

  6. Application of Boosting Regression Trees to Preliminary Cost Estimation in Building Construction Projects.

    PubMed

    Shin, Yoonseok

    2015-01-01

    Among the recent data mining techniques available, the boosting approach has attracted a great deal of attention because of its effective learning algorithm and strong boundaries in terms of its generalization performance. However, the boosting approach has yet to be used in regression problems within the construction domain, including cost estimations, but has been actively utilized in other domains. Therefore, a boosting regression tree (BRT) is applied to cost estimations at the early stage of a construction project to examine the applicability of the boosting approach to a regression problem within the construction domain. To evaluate the performance of the BRT model, its performance was compared with that of a neural network (NN) model, which has been proven to have a high performance in cost estimation domains. The BRT model has shown results similar to those of NN model using 234 actual cost datasets of a building construction project. In addition, the BRT model can provide additional information such as the importance plot and structure model, which can support estimators in comprehending the decision making process. Consequently, the boosting approach has potential applicability in preliminary cost estimations in a building construction project.

  7. Reusable Reentry Satellite (RRS) system design study: System cost estimates document

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1991-02-01

    The Reusable Reentry Satellite (RRS) program was initiated to provide life science investigators relatively inexpensive, frequent access to space for extended periods of time with eventual satellite recovery on earth. The RRS will provide an on-orbit laboratory for research on biological and material processes, be launched from a number of expendable launch vehicles, and operate in Low-Altitude Earth Orbit (LEO) as a free-flying unmanned laboratory. SAIC's design will provide independent atmospheric reentry and soft landing in the continental U.S., orbit for a maximum of 60 days, and will sustain three flights per year for 10 years. The Reusable Reentry Vehicle (RRV) will be 3-axis stabilized with artificial gravity up to 1.5g's, be rugged and easily maintainable, and have a modular design to accommodate a satellite bus and separate modular payloads (e.g., rodent module, general biological module, ESA microgravity botany facility, general botany module). The purpose of this System Cost Estimate Document is to provide a Life Cycle Cost Estimate (LCCE) for a NASA RRS Program using SAIC's RRS design. The estimate includes development, procurement, and 10 years of operations and support (O&S) costs for NASA's RRS program. The estimate does not include costs for other agencies which may track or interface with the RRS program (e.g., Air Force tracking agencies or individual RRS experimenters involved with special payload modules (PM's)). The life cycle cost estimate extends over the 10 year operation and support period FY99-2008.

  8. Reusable Reentry Satellite (RRS) system design study: System cost estimates document

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    The Reusable Reentry Satellite (RRS) program was initiated to provide life science investigators relatively inexpensive, frequent access to space for extended periods of time with eventual satellite recovery on earth. The RRS will provide an on-orbit laboratory for research on biological and material processes, be launched from a number of expendable launch vehicles, and operate in Low-Altitude Earth Orbit (LEO) as a free-flying unmanned laboratory. SAIC's design will provide independent atmospheric reentry and soft landing in the continental U.S., orbit for a maximum of 60 days, and will sustain three flights per year for 10 years. The Reusable Reentry Vehicle (RRV) will be 3-axis stabilized with artificial gravity up to 1.5g's, be rugged and easily maintainable, and have a modular design to accommodate a satellite bus and separate modular payloads (e.g., rodent module, general biological module, ESA microgravity botany facility, general botany module). The purpose of this System Cost Estimate Document is to provide a Life Cycle Cost Estimate (LCCE) for a NASA RRS Program using SAIC's RRS design. The estimate includes development, procurement, and 10 years of operations and support (O&S) costs for NASA's RRS program. The estimate does not include costs for other agencies which may track or interface with the RRS program (e.g., Air Force tracking agencies or individual RRS experimenters involved with special payload modules (PM's)). The life cycle cost estimate extends over the 10 year operation and support period FY99-2008.

  9. Using propensity scores to estimate the cost-effectiveness of medical therapies.

    PubMed

    Indurkhya, Alka; Mitra, Nandita; Schrag, Deborah

    2006-05-15

    The cost-effectiveness ratio is a popular statistic that is used by policy makers to decide which programs are cost-effective in the public health sector. Recently, the net monetary benefit has been proposed as an alternative statistical summary measure to overcome the limitations associated with the cost-effectiveness ratio. Research on using the net monetary benefit to assess the cost-effectiveness of therapies in non-randomized studies has yet to be done. Propensity scores are useful in estimating adjusted effectiveness of programs that have non-randomized or quasi-experimental designs. This article introduces the use of propensity score adjustment in cost-effectiveness analyses to estimate net monetary benefits for non-randomized studies. The uncertainty associated with the net monetary benefit estimate is evaluated using cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Our method is illustrated by applying it to SEER-Medicare data for muscle invasive bladder cancer to determine the most cost-effective treatment protocol.

  10. The economic costs of radiation-induced health effects: Estimation and simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Nieves, L.A.; Tawil, J.J.

    1988-08-01

    This effort improves the quantitative information available for use in evaluating actions that alter health risks due to population exposure to ionizing radiation. To project the potential future costs of changes in health effects risks, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) constructed a probabilistic computer model, Health Effects Costs Model (HECOM), which utilizes the health effect incidence estimates from accident consequences models to calculate the discounted sum of the economic costs associated with population exposure to ionizing radiation. Application of HECOM to value-impact and environmental impact analyses should greatly increase the quality of the information available for regulatory decision making. Three major types of health effects present risks for any population sustaining a significant radiation exposure: acute radiation injuries (and fatalities), latent cancers, and impairments due to genetic effects. The literature pertaining to both incidence and treatment of these health effects was reviewed by PNL and provided the basis for developing economic cost estimates. The economic costs of health effects estimated by HECOM represent both the value of resources consumed in diagnosing, treating, and caring for the patient and the value of goods not produced because of illness or premature death due to the health effect. Additional costs to society, such as pain and suffering, are not included in the PNL economic cost measures since they do not divert resources from other uses, are difficult to quantify, and do not have a value observable in the marketplace. 83 refs., 3 figs., 19 tabs.

  11. Software Cost Estimating Models: A Comparative Study of What the Models Estimate

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1993-09-01

    45 4-3 Example of SEER-SEM, ver 3.21 Report with L3bor Categories .......... 46 4-4 Sample Ada and Assembly Program Operation...technical, physical, or other characteristics (8:596). PRICE-S. Programmed Review of Information for Costing and Evaluation - Software. A commercial...Chapter I for details regarding this model. 6 Software. The combination of computer programs , data, and documentation which enable computer equipment

  12. An estimate of the cost of administering intravenous biological agents in Spanish day hospitals

    PubMed Central

    Nolla, Joan Miquel; Martín, Esperanza; Llamas, Pilar; Manero, Javier; Rodríguez de la Serna, Arturo; Fernández-Miera, Manuel Francisco; Rodríguez, Mercedes; López, José Manuel; Ivanova, Alexandra; Aragón, Belén

    2017-01-01

    Objective To estimate the unit costs of administering intravenous (IV) biological agents in day hospitals (DHs) in the Spanish National Health System. Patients and methods Data were obtained from 188 patients with rheumatoid arthritis, collected from nine DHs, receiving one of the following IV therapies: infliximab (n=48), rituximab (n=38), abatacept (n=41), or tocilizumab (n=61). The fieldwork was carried out between March 2013 and March 2014. The following three groups of costs were considered: 1) structural costs, 2) material costs, and 3) staff costs. Staff costs were considered a fixed cost and were estimated according to the DH theoretical level of activity, which includes, as well as personal care of each patient, the DH general activities (complete imputation method, CIM). In addition, an alternative calculation was performed, in which the staff costs were considered a variable cost imputed according to the time spent on direct care (partial imputation method, PIM). All costs were expressed in euros for the reference year 2014. Results The average total cost was €146.12 per infusion (standard deviation [SD] ±87.11; CIM) and €29.70 per infusion (SD ±11.42; PIM). The structure-related costs per infusion varied between €2.23 and €62.35 per patient and DH; the cost of consumables oscillated between €3.48 and €20.34 per patient and DH. In terms of the care process, the average difference between the shortest and the longest time taken by different hospitals to administer an IV biological therapy was 113 minutes. Conclusion The average total cost of infusion was less than that normally used in models of economic evaluation coming from secondary sources. This cost is even less when the staff costs are imputed according to the PIM. A high degree of variability was observed between different DHs in the cost of the consumables, in the structure-related costs, and in those of the care process. PMID:28356746

  13. Economic Competitiveness of U.S. Utility-Scale Photovoltaics Systems in 2015: Regional Cost Modeling of Installed Cost ($/W) and LCOE ($/kWh)

    SciTech Connect

    Fu, Ran; James, Ted L.; Chung, Donald; Gagne, Douglas; Lopez, Anthony; Dobos, Aron

    2015-06-14

    Utility-scale photovoltaics (PV) system growth is largely driven by the economic metrics of total installed costs and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), which differ by region. This study details regional cost factors, including environment (wind speed and snow loads), labor costs, material costs, sales taxes, and permitting costs using a new system-level bottom-up cost modeling approach. We use this model to identify regional all-in PV installed costs for fixed-tilt and one-axis tracker systems in the United States with consideration of union and non-union labor costs in 2015. LCOEs using those regional installed costs are then modeled and spatially presented. Finally, we assess the cost reduction opportunities of increasing module conversion efficiencies on PV system costs in order to indicate the possible economic impacts of module technology advancements and help future research and development (R&D) effects in the context of U.S. SunShot targets.

  14. Estimating patient-borne water and electricity costs in home hemodialysis: a simulation

    PubMed Central

    Nickel, Matthew; Rideout, Wes; Shah, Nikhil; Reintjes, Frances; Chen, Justin Z.; Burrell, Robert; Pauly, Robert P.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Home hemodialysis is associated with lower costs to the health care system compared with conventional facility-based hemodialysis because of lower staffing and overhead costs, and by transferring the treatment cost of utilities (water and power) to the patient. The purpose of this study was to determine the utility costs of home hemodialysis and create a formula such that patients and renal programs can estimate the annual patient-borne costs involved with this type of treatment. Methods: Seven common combinations of treatment duration and dialysate flows were replicated 5 times using various combinations of home hemodialysis and reverse osmosis machines. Real-time utility (electricity and water) consumption was monitored during these simulations. A generic formula was developed to allow patients and programs to calculate a more precise estimate of utility costs based on individual combinations of dialysis intensity, frequency and utility costs unique to any patient. Results: Using typical 2014 utility costs for Edmonton, the most expensive prescription was for nocturnal home hemodialysis (8 h at 300 mL/min, 6 d/wk), which resulted in a utility cost of $1269 per year; the least expensive prescription was for conventional home hemodialysis (4 h at 500 mL/min, 3 d/wk), which cost $420 per year. Water consumption makes up most of this expense, with electricity accounting for only 12% of the cost. Interpretation: We show that a substantial cost burden is transferred to the patient on home hemodialysis, which would otherwise be borne by the renal program.

  15. Estimating the costs of tsetse control options: an example for Uganda.

    PubMed

    Shaw, A P M; Torr, S J; Waiswa, C; Cecchi, G; Wint, G R W; Mattioli, R C; Robinson, T P

    2013-07-01

    Decision-making and financial planning for tsetse control is complex, with a particularly wide range of choices to be made on location, timing, strategy and methods. This paper presents full cost estimates for eliminating or continuously controlling tsetse in a hypothetical area of 10,000km(2) located in south-eastern Uganda. Four tsetse control techniques were analysed: (i) artificial baits (insecticide-treated traps/targets), (ii) insecticide-treated cattle (ITC), (iii) aerial spraying using the sequential aerosol technique (SAT) and (iv) the addition of the sterile insect technique (SIT) to the insecticide-based methods (i-iii). For the creation of fly-free zones and using a 10% discount rate, the field costs per km(2) came to US$283 for traps (4 traps per km(2)), US$30 for ITC (5 treated cattle per km(2) using restricted application), US$380 for SAT and US$758 for adding SIT. The inclusion of entomological and other preliminary studies plus administrative overheads adds substantially to the overall cost, so that the total costs become US$482 for traps, US$220 for ITC, US$552 for SAT and US$993 - 1365 if SIT is added following suppression using another method. These basic costs would apply to trouble-free operations dealing with isolated tsetse populations. Estimates were also made for non-isolated populations, allowing for a barrier covering 10% of the intervention area, maintained for 3 years. Where traps were used as a barrier, the total cost of elimination increased by between 29% and 57% and for ITC barriers the increase was between 12% and 30%. In the case of continuous tsetse control operations, costs were estimated over a 20-year period and discounted at 10%. Total costs per km(2) came to US$368 for ITC, US$2114 for traps, all deployed continuously, and US$2442 for SAT applied at 3-year intervals. The lower costs compared favourably with the regular treatment of cattle with prophylactic trypanocides (US$3862 per km(2) assuming four doses per annum at 45

  16. Estimating Costs Associated with a Community Outbreak of Meningococcal Disease in a Colombian Caribbean City

    PubMed Central

    Pinzón-Redondo, Hernando; Coronell-Rodriguez, Wilfrido; Díaz-Martinez, Inés; Guzmán-Corena, Ángel; Constenla, Dagna

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT Meningococcal disease is a serious and potentially life-threatening infection that is caused by the bacterium Neisseria meningitidis (N. meningitidis), and it can cause meningitis, meningococcaemia outbreaks and epidemics. The disease is fatal in 9-12% of cases and with a death rate of up to 40% among patients with meningococcaemia. The objective of this study was to estimate the costs of a meningococcal outbreak that occurred in a Caribbean city of Colombia. We contacted experts involved in the outbreak and asked them specific questions about the diagnosis and treatment for meningococcal cases during the outbreak. Estimates of costs of the outbreak were also based on extensive review of medical records available during the outbreak. The costs associated with the outbreak were divided into the cost of the disease response phase and the cost of the disease surveillance phase. The costs associated with the outbreak control and surveillance were expressed in US$ (2011) as cost per 1,000 inhabitants. The average age of patients was 4.6 years (SD 3.5); 50% of the cases died; 50% of the cases were reported to have meningitis (3/6); 33% were diagnosed with meningococcaemia and myocarditis (2/6); 50% of the cases had bacteraemia (3/6); 66% of the cases had a culture specimen positive for Neisseria meningitidis; 5 of the 6 cases had RT-PCR positive for N. meningitidis. All N. meningitidis were serogroup B; 50 doses of ceftriaxone were administered as prophylaxis. Vaccine was not available at the time. The costs associated with control of the outbreak were estimated at US$ 0.8 per 1,000 inhabitants, disease surveillance at US$ 4.1 per 1,000 inhabitants, and healthcare costs at US$ 5.1 per 1,000 inhabitants. The costs associated with meningococcal outbreaks are substantial, and the outbreaks should be prevented. The mass chemoprophylaxis implemented helped control the outbreak. PMID:25395916

  17. Using the soil and water assessment tool to estimate dissolved inorganic nitrogen water pollution abatement cost functions in central portugal.

    PubMed

    Roebeling, P C; Rocha, J; Nunes, J P; Fidélis, T; Alves, H; Fonseca, S

    2014-01-01

    Coastal aquatic ecosystems are increasingly affected by diffuse source nutrient water pollution from agricultural activities in coastal catchments, even though these ecosystems are important from a social, environmental and economic perspective. To warrant sustainable economic development of coastal regions, we need to balance marginal costs from coastal catchment water pollution abatement and associated marginal benefits from coastal resource appreciation. Diffuse-source water pollution abatement costs across agricultural sectors are not easily determined given the spatial heterogeneity in biophysical and agro-ecological conditions as well as the available range of best agricultural practices (BAPs) for water quality improvement. We demonstrate how the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) can be used to estimate diffuse-source water pollution abatement cost functions across agricultural land use categories based on a stepwise adoption of identified BAPs for water quality improvement and corresponding SWAT-based estimates for agricultural production, agricultural incomes, and water pollution deliveries. Results for the case of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) surface water pollution by the key agricultural land use categories ("annual crops," "vineyards," and "mixed annual crops & vineyards") in the Vouga catchment in central Portugal show that no win-win agricultural practices are available within the assessed BAPs for DIN water quality improvement. Estimated abatement costs increase quadratically in the rate of water pollution abatement, with largest abatement costs for the "mixed annual crops & vineyards" land use category (between 41,900 and 51,900 € tDIN yr) and fairly similar abatement costs across the "vineyards" and "annual crops" land use categories (between 7300 and 15,200 € tDIN yr).

  18. [ALOS PALSAR estimation of vegetation biomass in Daxing' anling region].

    PubMed

    Song, Qian; Fan, Wen-Yi

    2011-02-01

    Based on field survey data, the correlations between the ALOS PALSAR L-band HH (L-HH) polarization data and the parameters of forest components in Daxing' anling region were systematically analyzed, and by adopting forest biomass estimation models, including simple linear model, exponential model, and model with terrain factors, optimal inversion was conducted. The results showed that backscattering coefficient had the greatest correlation with total forest biomass, and secondly, with trunk biomass, suggesting that the L-HH data could be used to estimate the total forest aboveground biomass. Among the three models adopted, the model with terrain factors could greatly reduce the biomass estimation error, with the accuracy reached 0.851, and the inversion result coincided best with the actual situation. It was forecasted that under the 41.5 degrees incidence angle L-HH polarization, the vegetation biomass saturation point within the Tahe and Amuer forest bureaus of Daxing' anling was at about 15.4 kg x m(-2).

  19. Estimation of the cost of treatment by chemotherapy for early breast cancer in Morocco

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Breast cancer is the first cancer in women both in incidence and mortality. The treatment of breast cancer benefited from the progress of chemotherapy and targeted therapies, but there was a parallel increase in treatment costs. Despite a relatively high incidence of many sites of cancer, so far, there is no national register for this disease in Morocco. The main goal of this paper is to estimate the total cost of chemotherapy in the early stages of breast cancer due to its frequency and the chances of patients being cured. This study provides health decision-makers with a first estimate of costs and the opportunity to achieve the optimal use of available data to estimate the needs of antimitotics and trastuzumab in Morocco. Method We start by evaluating the individual cost according to the therapeutic sub-groups, namely: 1. Patients needing chemotherapy with only anthracycline-based therapy. 2. Patients needing chemotherapy with both anthracycline and taxane but without trastuzumab. 3. Patients needing trastuzumab in addition to chemotherapy. For each sub-group, the protocol of treatment is described, and the individual costs per unit, and for the whole cycle, are evaluated. Then we estimate the number of women suffering from breast cancer on the basis of two data bases available in Morocco. Finally, we calculate the total annual cost of treatment of breast cancer in Morocco. Results The total cost of breast cancer in Morocco is given in Moroccan dirhams (MAD), the US dollar at the current exchange rate (MAD 10 = USD 1.30) and in international dollars or purchasing power parity (MAD 10 = PPP 1.95). The cost of a therapy with trastuzumab is 8.4 times the cost of a sequential chemotherapy combining anthracycline and taxane, and nearly 60 times the cost of chemotherapy based on anthracycline alone. Globally, between USD 13.3 million and USD 28.6 million need to be devoted every year by the Moroccan health authorities to treat women with localized breast

  20. Regional estimation of litterfall in a subtropical forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, H.; Huang, C.

    2010-12-01

    Litterfall represents the major losses of aboveground carbon and nutrients to forest floors, which are pivotal components in terrestrial biogeochemical cycles. It is also an indicator to assess the impacts of perturbations on forest ecosystems such as tropical cyclones and insect infestation. The objective of study is to integrate field and satellite observations to estimate litterfall in a subtropical forest in Taiwan (23°54'N, 121°54'E). Eighteen litterfall traps across a wide range of topo-edaphic gradients were installed to capture litterfall during May 2008 to April 2009. A probabilistic spectral mixture analysis model was used to estimate time-series fractional photosynthetically active vegetation cover (PV) from seven sets of Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) images acquired during the field sampling period. Based on preliminary field investigation, litterfall pattern might be related to vegetation phenology. This would permit the estimation of litterfall abundance (g m-2) using the difference of PV (ΔPV) between two consecutive images through time. Results showed that the mean (standard deviation, minimum-maximum) litterfall and ΔPV of the observation period were 149.6 (206.9, 7.5-663.8) g m-2 and 1.0 (8.0, -18.8-13.2)%, respectively; there was a strong correlation (r = 0.63, p-value = 0.012) between these two measures. This relationship allowed us to map the temporal variation of litterfall over a vast region. High values of ΔPV and litterfall during the growing season (April-September) may be due to leaf expansion and tropical cyclones, respectively, while low values of ΔPV and litterfall during the non-growing season (October-March) may reflect the normal phenological pattern. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using remote sensing to assess the temporal dynamics of litterfall, which makes it possible for the regional monitoring of metabolism of subtropical forest ecosystems.

  1. Estimating costs of low-level radioactive waste disposal alternatives for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-02-01

    This report was prepared for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts by the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, National Low-Level Waste Management Program. It presents planning life-cycle cost (PLCC) estimates for four sizes of in-state low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) disposal facilities. These PLCC estimates include preoperational and operational expenditures, all support facilities, materials, labor, closure costs, and long-term institutional care and monitoring costs. It is intended that this report bc used as a broad decision making tool for evaluating one of the several complex factors that must be examined when deciding between various LLRW management options -- relative costs. Because the underlying assumptions of these analyses will change as the Board decides how it will manage Massachusett`s waste and the specific characteristics any disposal facility will have, the results of this study are not absolute and should only be used to compare the relative costs of the options presented. The disposal technology selected for this analysis is aboveground earth-mounded vaults. These vaults are reinforced concrete structures where low-level waste is emplaced and later covered with a multi-layered earthen cap. The ``base case`` PLCC estimate was derived from a preliminary feasibility design developed for the Illinois Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility. This PLCC report describes facility operations and details the procedure used to develop the base case PLCC estimate for each facility component and size. Sensitivity analyses were performed on the base case PLCC estimate by varying several factors to determine their influences upon the unit disposal costs. The report presents the results of the sensitivity analyses for the five most significant cost factors.

  2. Sound Cost Estimating: A Pre-Requisite to Ascertaining Affordability of DoD Programs

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-10-01

    predictions, especially about the future,” has been variously attributed to Niels Bohr , Mark Twain and, of course, Yogi Berra. In his best-selling...critical for program success: con-ducting a sound program life cycle cost estimate and establishing a program’s budget. These two processes are...supposedly “on-track” is one strategy to provide early warning about problems before they become un- manageable. A sound cost esti- mate is a neces- sary

  3. Equipment Design and Cost Estimation for Small Modular Biomass Systems, Synthesis Gas Cleanup, and Oxygen Separation Equipment; Task 1: Cost Estimates of Small Modular Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Nexant Inc.

    2006-05-01

    This deliverable is the Final Report for Task 1, Cost Estimates of Small Modular Systems, as part of NREL Award ACO-5-44027, ''Equipment Design and Cost Estimation for Small Modular Biomass Systems, Synthesis Gas Cleanup and Oxygen Separation Equipment''. Subtask 1.1 looked into processes and technologies that have been commercially built at both large and small scales, with three technologies, Fluidized Catalytic Cracking (FCC) of refinery gas oil, Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) of Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) Expanders, chosen for further investigation. These technologies were chosen due to their applicability relative to other technologies being considered by NREL for future commercial applications, such as indirect gasification and fluidized bed tar cracking. Research in this subject is driven by an interest in the impact that scaling has on the cost and major process unit designs for commercial technologies. Conclusions from the evaluations performed could be applied to other technologies being considered for modular or skid-mounted applications.

  4. Early-Stage Capital Cost Estimation of Biorefinery Processes: A Comparative Study of Heuristic Techniques.

    PubMed

    Tsagkari, Mirela; Couturier, Jean-Luc; Kokossis, Antonis; Dubois, Jean-Luc

    2016-09-08

    Biorefineries offer a promising alternative to fossil-based processing industries and have undergone rapid development in recent years. Limited financial resources and stringent company budgets necessitate quick capital estimation of pioneering biorefinery projects at the early stages of their conception to screen process alternatives, decide on project viability, and allocate resources to the most promising cases. Biorefineries are capital-intensive projects that involve state-of-the-art technologies for which there is no prior experience or sufficient historical data. This work reviews existing rapid cost estimation practices, which can be used by researchers with no previous cost estimating experience. It also comprises a comparative study of six cost methods on three well-documented biorefinery processes to evaluate their accuracy and precision. The results illustrate discrepancies among the methods because their extrapolation on biorefinery data often violates inherent assumptions. This study recommends the most appropriate rapid cost methods and urges the development of an improved early-stage capital cost estimation tool suitable for biorefinery processes.

  5. Alternative methods of marginal abatement cost estimation: Non- parametric distance functions

    SciTech Connect

    Boyd, G.; Molburg, J.; Prince, R.

    1996-12-31

    This project implements a economic methodology to measure the marginal abatement costs of pollution by measuring the lost revenue implied by an incremental reduction in pollution. It utilizes observed performance, or `best practice`, of facilities to infer the marginal abatement cost. The initial stage of the project is to use data from an earlier published study on productivity trends and pollution in electric utilities to test this approach and to provide insights on its implementation to issues of cost-benefit analysis studies needed by the Department of Energy. The basis for this marginal abatement cost estimation is a relationship between the outputs and the inputs of a firm or plant. Given a fixed set of input resources, including quasi-fixed inputs like plant and equipment and variable inputs like labor and fuel, a firm is able to produce a mix of outputs. This paper uses this theoretical view of the joint production process to implement a methodology and obtain empirical estimates of marginal abatement costs. These estimates are compared to engineering estimates.

  6. Early‐Stage Capital Cost Estimation of Biorefinery Processes: A Comparative Study of Heuristic Techniques

    PubMed Central

    Couturier, Jean‐Luc; Kokossis, Antonis; Dubois, Jean‐Luc

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Biorefineries offer a promising alternative to fossil‐based processing industries and have undergone rapid development in recent years. Limited financial resources and stringent company budgets necessitate quick capital estimation of pioneering biorefinery projects at the early stages of their conception to screen process alternatives, decide on project viability, and allocate resources to the most promising cases. Biorefineries are capital‐intensive projects that involve state‐of‐the‐art technologies for which there is no prior experience or sufficient historical data. This work reviews existing rapid cost estimation practices, which can be used by researchers with no previous cost estimating experience. It also comprises a comparative study of six cost methods on three well‐documented biorefinery processes to evaluate their accuracy and precision. The results illustrate discrepancies among the methods because their extrapolation on biorefinery data often violates inherent assumptions. This study recommends the most appropriate rapid cost methods and urges the development of an improved early‐stage capital cost estimation tool suitable for biorefinery processes. PMID:27484398

  7. Site restoration: Estimation of attributable costs from plutonium-dispersal accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Chanin, D.I.; Murfin, W.B.

    1996-05-01

    A nuclear weapons accident is an extremely unlikely event due to the extensive care taken in operations. However, under some hypothetical accident conditions, plutonium might be dispersed to the environment. This would result in costs being incurred by the government to remediate the site and compensate for losses. This study is a multi-disciplinary evaluation of the potential scope of the post-accident response that includes technical factors, current and proposed legal requirements and constraints, as well as social/political factors that could influence decision making. The study provides parameters that can be used to assess economic costs for accidents postulated to occur in urban areas, Midwest farmland, Western rangeland, and forest. Per-area remediation costs have been estimated, using industry-standard methods, for both expedited and extended remediation. Expedited remediation costs have been evaluated for highways, airports, and urban areas. Extended remediation costs have been evaluated for all land uses except highways and airports. The inclusion of cost estimates in risk assessments, together with the conventional estimation of doses and health effects, allows a fuller understanding of the post-accident environment. The insights obtained can be used to minimize economic risks by evaluation of operational and design alternatives, and through development of improved capabilities for accident response.

  8. Estimating Suicide Rates in Developing Nations: A Low-Cost Newspaper Capture-Recapture Approach in Cambodia.

    PubMed

    Harris, Keith M; Thandrayen, Joanne; Samphoas, Chien; Se, Pros; Lewchalermwongse, Boontriga; Ratanashevorn, Rattanakorn; Perry, Megan L; Britts, Choloe

    2016-04-01

    This study tested a low-cost method for estimating suicide rates in developing nations that lack adequate statistics. Data comprised reported suicides from Cambodia's 2 largest newspapers. Capture-recapture modeling estimated a suicide rate of 3.8/100 000 (95% CI = 2.5-6.7) for 2012. That compares to World Health Organization estimates of 1.3 to 9.4/100 000 and a Cambodian government estimate of 3.5/100 000. Suicide rates of males were twice that of females, and rates of those <40 years were twice that of those ≥40 years. Capture-recapture modeling with newspaper reports proved a reasonable method for estimating suicide rates for countries with inadequate official data. These methods are low-cost and can be applied to regions with at least 2 newspapers with overlapping reports. Means to further improve this approach are discussed. These methods are applicable to both recent and historical data, which can benefit epidemiological work, and may also be applicable to homicides and other statistics.

  9. Tug fleet and ground operations schedules and controls. Volume 3: Program cost estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1975-01-01

    Cost data for the tug DDT&E and operations phases are presented. Option 6 is the recommended option selected from seven options considered and was used as the basis for ground processing estimates. Option 6 provides for processing the tug in a factory clean environment in the low bay area of VAB with subsequent cleaning to visibly clean. The basis and results of the trade study to select Option 6 processing plan is included. Cost estimating methodology, a work breakdown structure, and a dictionary of WBS definitions is also provided.

  10. Conceptual capital-cost estimate and facility design of the Mirror-Fusion Technology Demonstration Facility

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1982-09-01

    This report contains contributions by Bechtel Group, Inc. to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) for the final report on the conceptual design of the Mirror Fusion Technology Demonstration Facility (TDF). Included in this report are the following contributions: (1) conceptual capital cost estimate, (2) structural design, and (3) plot plan and plant arrangement drawings. The conceptual capital cost estimate is prepared in a format suitable for inclusion as a section in the TDF final report. The structural design and drawings are prepared as partial inputs to the TDF final report section on facilities design, which is being prepared by the FEDC.

  11. A regional estimate of postfire streamflow change in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bart, Ryan R.

    2016-02-01

    The effect of fire on annual streamflow has been examined in numerous watershed studies, with some studies observing postfire increases in streamflow while other have observed no conclusive change. Despite this inherent variability in streamflow response, the management of water resources for flood protection, water supply, water quality, and the environment necessitates an understanding of postfire effects on streamflow at regional scales. In this study, the regional effect of wildfire on annual streamflow was investigated using 12 paired watersheds in central and southern California. A mixed model was used to pool and statistically examine the combined paired-watershed data, with emphasis on the effects of percentage area burned, postfire recovery of vegetation, and postfire wetness conditions on postfire streamflow change. At a regional scale, postfire annual streamflow increased 134% (82%-200%) during the first postfire year assuming 100% area burned and average annual wetness conditions. Postfire response decreased with lower percentages of percentage area burned and during subsequent years as vegetation recovered following fire. Annual streamflow response to fire was found to be sensitive to annual wetness conditions, with postfire response being smallest during dry years, greatest during wet years, and slowly decreasing during very wet years. These findings provide watershed managers with a first-order estimate for predicting postfire streamflow response in both gauged and ungauged watersheds.

  12. Design and cost estimate of an 800 MVA superconducting power transmission

    SciTech Connect

    Alex, P.; Ernst, A. ); Forsyth, E.; Gibbs, R.; Thomas, R.; Muller, T. )

    1990-10-18

    Numerous studies involving cost estimates have been performed for superconducting power transmission systems. As these systems were usually aimed at providing transmission from large clusters of generation the base power rating of the corridor was very high; in the case of the most comprehensive study it was 10,000 MVA. The purpose of this study is to examine a system which is very closely based on the prototype 1000 MVA system which was operated at Brookhaven National Laboratory over a four year period. The purpose of the study is to provide cost estimates for the superconducting system and to compare these estimates with a design based on the use of advanced but conventional cable designs. The work is supported by funding from the Office of Energy Research's Industry/Laboratory Technology Exchange Program. This program is designed to commercialize energy technologies. The technical design of the superconducting system was prepared by the BNL staff, the design of the 800 MVA conventional cable system was done by engineers from Underground Systems Incorporated. Both institutions worked on the cost estimate of the superconducting system. The description and cost estimate of the conventional cable system is given in the Appendix. 5 refs.

  13. Particulate Matter Exposure and Preterm Birth: Estimates of U.S. Attributable Burden and Economic Costs

    PubMed Central

    Trasande, Leonardo; Malecha, Patrick; Attina, Teresa M.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Preterm birth (PTB) rates (11.4% in 2013) in the United States remain high and are a substantial cause of morbidity. Studies of prenatal exposure have associated particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5) and other ambient air pollutants with adverse birth outcomes; yet, to our knowledge, burden and costs of PM2.5-attributable PTB have not been estimated in the United States. Objectives: We aimed to estimate burden of PTB in the United States and economic costs attributable to PM2.5 exposure in 2010. Methods: Annual deciles of PM2.5 were obtained from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. We converted PTB odds ratio (OR), identified in a previous meta-analysis (1.15 per 10 μg/m3 for our base case, 1.07–1.16 for low- and high-end scenarios) to relative risk (RRs), to obtain an estimate that better represents the true relative risk. A reference level (RL) of 8.8 μg/m3 was applied. We then used the RR estimates and county-level PTB prevalence to quantify PM2.5-attributable PTB. Direct medical costs were obtained from the 2007 Institute of Medicine report, and lost economic productivity (LEP) was estimated using a meta-analysis of PTB-associated IQ loss, and well-established relationships of IQ loss with LEP. All costs were calculated using 2010 dollars. Results: An estimated 3.32% of PTBs nationally (corresponding to 15,808 PTBs) in 2010 could be attributed to PM2.5 (PM2.5 > 8.8 μg/m3). Attributable PTBs cost were estimated at $5.09 billion [sensitivity analysis (SA): $2.43–9.66 B], of which $760 million were spent for medical care (SA: $362 M–1.44 B). The estimated PM2.5 attributable fraction (AF) of PTB was highest in urban counties, with highest AFs in the Ohio Valley and the southern United States. Conclusions: PM2.5 may contribute substantially to burden and costs of PTB in the United States, and considerable health and economic benefits could be achieved through environmental regulatory interventions that reduce PM2.5 exposure in

  14. Estimating cost ratio distribution between fatal and non-fatal road accidents in Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamdan, Nurhidayah; Daud, Noorizam

    2014-07-01

    Road traffic crashes are a global major problem, and should be treated as a shared responsibility. In Malaysia, road accident tragedies kill 6,917 people and injure or disable 17,522 people in year 2012, and government spent about RM9.3 billion in 2009 which cost the nation approximately 1 to 2 percent loss of gross domestic product (GDP) reported annually. The current cost ratio for fatal and non-fatal accident used by Ministry of Works Malaysia simply based on arbitrary value of 6:4 or equivalent 1.5:1 depends on the fact that there are six factors involved in the calculation accident cost for fatal accident while four factors for non-fatal accident. The simple indication used by the authority to calculate the cost ratio is doubted since there is lack of mathematical and conceptual evidence to explain how this ratio is determined. The main aim of this study is to determine the new accident cost ratio for fatal and non-fatal accident in Malaysia based on quantitative statistical approach. The cost ratio distributions will be estimated based on Weibull distribution. Due to the unavailability of official accident cost data, insurance claim data both for fatal and non-fatal accident have been used as proxy information for the actual accident cost. There are two types of parameter estimates used in this study, which are maximum likelihood (MLE) and robust estimation. The findings of this study reveal that accident cost ratio for fatal and non-fatal claim when using MLE is 1.33, while, for robust estimates, the cost ratio is slightly higher which is 1.51. This study will help the authority to determine a more accurate cost ratio between fatal and non-fatal accident as compared to the official ratio set by the government, since cost ratio is an important element to be used as a weightage in modeling road accident related data. Therefore, this study provides some guidance tips to revise the insurance claim set by the Malaysia road authority, hence the appropriate method

  15. Costs of expanding the network of protected areas as a response to climate change in the Cape Floristic Region.

    PubMed

    Wise, Russell M; Reyers, Belinda; Guo, Chris; Midgley, Guy F; De Lange, Willem

    2012-06-01

    The expansion of protected areas is a critical component of strategies to promote the continued existence of biodiversity (i.e., life at all levels of biological organization) as climate changes, but scientific, social, and economic uncertainties associated with climate change are some of the major obstacles preventing such expansion. New models of climate change and species distribution and new methods of conservation planning now make it possible to explore the uncertainties associated with climate changes and species responses. Yet few reliable estimates of the costs of expanding protected areas and methods for determining these costs exist, largely because of the many (and uncertain) determinants of these costs. We developed a cost-accounting model to estimate the range in costs of various options for expanding protected areas and to explore the variables that drive these costs. Model development was informed by an existing plan to expand protected areas in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa to address species conservation under a scenario of climate change. The 50-year present value of total costs varied from US$260 million ($1077/ha) for an off-reserve option that involves agreements with landowners and no compensation of forgone production and associated revenue to $1020 million ($4228/ha) for an on-reserve option that involves land acquisition and protection. The costs of acquiring land or compensating landowners for forgone production and development opportunities were the major drivers of the total costs across all options because most of the area identified in the protected-area expansion plan consisted of urban and high-quality agricultural lands. Total costs were also affected by changes in protected area extent and discount rate. Model-generated outputs such as these may be useful for informing implementation strategies and the allocation of future efforts in monitoring, data collection, and model development.

  16. Building of an experimental cline with Arabidopsis thaliana to estimate herbicide fitness cost.

    PubMed

    Roux, Fabrice; Giancola, Sandra; Durand, Stéphanie; Reboud, Xavier

    2006-06-01

    Various management strategies aim at maintaining pesticide resistance frequency under a threshold value by taking advantage of the benefit of the fitness penalty (the cost) expressed by the resistance allele outside the treated area or during the pesticide selection "off years." One method to estimate a fitness cost is to analyze the resistance allele frequency along transects across treated and untreated areas. On the basis of the shape of the cline, this method gives the relative contributions of both gene flow and the fitness difference between genotypes in the treated and untreated areas. Taking advantage of the properties of such migration-selection balance, an artificial cline was built up to optimize the conditions where the fitness cost of two herbicide-resistant mutants (acetolactate synthase and auxin-induced target genes) in the model species Arabidopsis thaliana could be more accurately measured. The analysis of the microevolutionary dynamics in these experimental populations indicated mean fitness costs of approximately 15 and 92% for the csr1-1 and axr2-1 resistances, respectively. In addition, negative frequency dependence for the fitness cost was also detected for the axr2-1 resistance. The advantages and disadvantages of the cline approach are discussed in regard to other methods of cost estimation. This comparison highlights the powerful ability of an experimental cline to measure low fitness costs and detect sensibility to frequency-dependent variations.

  17. Regional estimation of groundwater arsenic concentrations through systematical dynamic-neural modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Fi-John; Chen, Pin-An; Liu, Chen-Wuing; Liao, Vivian Hsiu-Chuan; Liao, Chung-Min

    2013-08-01

    Arsenic (As) is an odorless semi-metal that occurs naturally in rock and soil, and As contamination in groundwater resources has become a serious threat to human health. Thus, assessing the spatial and temporal variability of As concentration is highly desirable, particularly in heavily As-contaminated areas. However, various difficulties may be encountered in the regional estimation of As concentration such as cost-intensive field monitoring, scarcity of field data, identification of important factors affecting As, over-fitting or poor estimation accuracy. This study develops a novel systematical dynamic-neural modeling (SDM) for effectively estimating regional As-contaminated water quality by using easily-measured water quality variables. To tackle the difficulties commonly encountered in regional estimation, the SDM comprises of a neural network and four statistical techniques: the Nonlinear Autoregressive with eXogenous input (NARX) network, Gamma test, cross-validation, Bayesian regularization method and indicator kriging (IK). For practical application, this study investigated a heavily As-contaminated area in Taiwan. The backpropagation neural network (BPNN) is adopted for comparison purpose. The results demonstrate that the NARX network (Root mean square error (RMSE): 95.11 μg l-1 for training; 106.13 μg l-1 for validation) outperforms the BPNN (RMSE: 121.54 μg l-1 for training; 143.37 μg l-1 for validation). The constructed SDM can provide reliable estimation (R2 > 0.89) of As concentration at ungauged sites based merely on three easily-measured water quality variables (Alk, Ca2+ and pH). In addition, risk maps under the threshold of the WHO drinking water standard (10 μg l-1) are derived by the IK to visually display the spatial and temporal variation of the As concentration in the whole study area at different time spans. The proposed SDM can be practically applied with satisfaction to the regional estimation in study areas of interest and the

  18. Low-Cost Sensor Network for Stream Flow Monitoring in the Alto Beni Region of Bolivia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rowe, M. D.; Fry, L. M.; Mihelcic, J. R.

    2009-12-01

    Lack of data is a persistent problem in hydrology and other field work in developing countries. Low cost monitoring devices allow investigators to maximize spatial coverage on a limited budget, as well as to minimize the financial risk of loss of instruments placed in vulnerable locations. This work contributes to an ongoing project to evaluate the sustainability of discharge from springs supplying gravity-fed potable water systems in the Alto Beni region of Bolivia where land use is rapidly changing from forest to agriculture. The approach is to estimate ground water recharge as a function of land use variables using a water balance model in several representative watersheds. Monthly stream discharge is currently estimated using monthly manual measurements of water level by a local technician. Continuous water level measurements will allow an improved estimate of the cumulative discharge, and generate data on statistical distribution of daily flow that may be useful to estimate discharge in similar, ungaged watersheds. Continuous water level measurements, along with available precipitation data, will allow analysis and comparison of the response of watersheds to individual precipitation events as a function of land use variables. We assembled a low cost level logging system for stream flow monitoring that measures and records distance up to 6 m to the nearest 25 mm every ten minutes, and runs for a month on six rechargeable AA batteries. The system consists of a sonic range finder sensor (MaxSonar-EZ2, Maxbotix Inc., Baxter, MN, 30), a temperature sensor (MCP9701, Microchip Technology Inc., Chandler, AZ, 0.25), and a datalogger (Hobo U12, Onset Computer Corp., Pocasset, MA, 104) along with a weather-resistant enclosure and common items for a total cost of 230 per unit. The level loggers were attached to bridges over three subject streams. A local technician visits the sites monthly to download data, replace the rechargeable batteries, and take a manual water level

  19. Costs and Benefits Associated with the MRSA Search and Destroy Policy in a Hospital in the Region Kennemerland, The Netherlands

    PubMed Central

    Souverein, Dennis; Houtman, Patricia; Euser, Sjoerd M.; Herpers, Bjorn L.; Kluytmans, Jan; Den Boer, Jeroen W.

    2016-01-01

    Objective The objective of this study was to analyze the costs and benefits of the MRSA Search and Destroy (S&D) policy between 2008 and 2013 in the Kennemer Gasthuis, a 400 bed teaching hospital in the region Kennemerland, the Netherlands. Methods A patient registration database was used to retrospectively calculate costs, including screening, isolation, follow-up, contact tracing, cleaning, treatment, deployment of extra healthcare workers, salary for an infection control practitioner (ICP) and service of isolation rooms. The estimated benefits (costs and lives when no MRSA S&D was applied) were based on a varying MRSA prevalence rate (up to 50%). Results When no MRSA S&D policy was applied, the additional costs and deaths due to MRSA bacteraemia were estimated to be € 1,388,907 and 33 respectively (at a MRSA prevalence rate of 50%). Currently, the total costs were estimated to be € 290,672 (€ 48,445 annually) and a MRSA prevalence rate of 17.3% was considered as break-even point. Between 2008 and 2013, a total of 576 high risk patients were screened for MRSA carriage, of whom 19 (3.3%) were found to be MRSA positive. Forty-nine patients (72.1%) were found unexpectedly. Conclusions Application of the MRSA S&D policy saves lives and money, although the high rate of unexpected MRSA cases is alarming. PMID:26849655

  20. A model to estimate the cost effectiveness of the indoorenvironment improvements in office work

    SciTech Connect

    Seppanen, Olli; Fisk, William J.

    2004-06-01

    Deteriorated indoor climate is commonly related to increases in sick building syndrome symptoms, respiratory illnesses, sick leave, reduced comfort and losses in productivity. The cost of deteriorated indoor climate for the society is high. Some calculations show that the cost is higher than the heating energy costs of the same buildings. Also building-level calculations have shown that many measures taken to improve indoor air quality and climate are cost-effective when the potential monetary savings resulting from an improved indoor climate are included as benefits gained. As an initial step towards systemizing these building level calculations we have developed a conceptual model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of various measures. The model shows the links between the improvements in the indoor environment and the following potential financial benefits: reduced medical care cost, reduced sick leave, better performance of work, lower turn over of employees, and lower cost of building maintenance due to fewer complaints about indoor air quality and climate. The pathways to these potential benefits from changes in building technology and practices go via several human responses to the indoor environment such as infectious diseases, allergies and asthma, sick building syndrome symptoms, perceived air quality, and thermal environment. The model also includes the annual cost of investments, operation costs, and cost savings of improved indoor climate. The conceptual model illustrates how various factors are linked to each other. SBS symptoms are probably the most commonly assessed health responses in IEQ studies and have been linked to several characteristics of buildings and IEQ. While the available evidence indicates that SBS symptoms can affect these outcomes and suspects that such a linkage exists, at present we can not quantify the relationships sufficiently for cost-benefit modeling. New research and analyses of existing data to quantify the financial

  1. A synthesis of regional inputs and damage costs of reactive nitrogen in the United States

    EPA Science Inventory

    We estimated the fate of N in crops and in the environment (air, land, freshwater, groundwater, and coastal zones) with published coefficients describing nutrient uptake efficiency, gaseous emissions, and leaching losses. Benefits and damage costs of anthropogenic N inputs were ...

  2. Study of solid rocket motors for a space shuttle booster. Volume 2, book 3: Cost estimating data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vanderesch, A. H.

    1972-01-01

    Cost estimating data for the 156 inch diameter, parallel burn solid rocket propellant engine selected for the space shuttle booster are presented. The costing aspects on the baseline motor are initially considered. From the baseline, sufficient data is obtained to provide cost estimates of alternate approaches.

  3. Improving a regional model using reduced complexity and parameter estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kelson, Victor A.; Hunt, Randall J.; Haitjema, Henk M.

    2002-01-01

    The availability of powerful desktop computers and graphical user interfaces for ground water flow models makes possible the construction of ever more complex models. A proposed copper-zinc sulfide mine in northern Wisconsin offers a unique case in which the same hydrologic system has been modeled using a variety of techniques covering a wide range of sophistication and complexity. Early in the permitting process, simple numerical models were used to evaluate the necessary amount of water to be pumped from the mine, reductions in streamflow, and the drawdowns in the regional aquifer. More complex models have subsequently been used in an attempt to refine the predictions. Even after so much modeling effort, questions regarding the accuracy and reliability of the predictions remain. We have performed a new analysis of the proposed mine using the two-dimensional analytic element code GFLOW coupled with the nonlinear parameter estimation code UCODE. The new model is parsimonious, containing fewer than 10 parameters, and covers a region several times larger in areal extent than any of the previous models. The model demonstrates the suitability of analytic element codes for use with parameter estimation codes. The simplified model results are similar to the more complex models; predicted mine inflows and UCODE-derived 95% confidence intervals are consistent with the previous predictions. More important, the large areal extent of the model allowed us to examine hydrological features not included in the previous models, resulting in new insights about the effects that far-field boundary conditions can have on near-field model calibration and parameterization. In this case, the addition of surface water runoff into a lake in the headwaters of a stream while holding recharge constant moved a regional ground watershed divide and resulted in some of the added water being captured by the adjoining basin. Finally, a simple analytical solution was used to clarify the GFLOW model

  4. Equipment Design and Cost Estimation for Small Modular Biomass Systems, Synthesis Gas Cleanup, and Oxygen Separation Equipment; Task 2: Gas Cleanup Design and Cost Estimates -- Wood Feedstock

    SciTech Connect

    Nexant Inc.

    2006-05-01

    As part of Task 2, Gas Cleanup and Cost Estimates, Nexant investigated the appropriate process scheme for treatment of wood-derived syngas for use in the synthesis of liquid fuels. Two different 2,000 metric tonne per day gasification schemes, a low-pressure, indirect system using the gasifier, and a high-pressure, direct system using gasification technology were evaluated. Initial syngas conditions from each of the gasifiers was provided to the team by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Nexant was the prime contractor and principal investigator during this task; technical assistance was provided by both GTI and Emery Energy.

  5. Pan-European household and industrial water demand: regional relevant estimations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernhard, Jeroen; Reynaud, Arnaud; de Roo, Ad

    2016-04-01

    Sustainable water management is of high importance to provide adequate quality and quantity of water to European households, industries and agriculture. Especially since demographic, economic and climate changes are expected to increase competition for water between these sectors in the future. A shortage of water implies a reduction in welfare of households or damage to economic sectors. This socio-economic component should be incorporated into the decision-making process when developing water allocation schemes, requiring detailed water use information and cost/benefit functions. We now present the results of our study which is focused at providing regionally relevant pan-European water demand and cost-benefit estimations for the household and industry sector. We gathered consistent data on water consumption, water prices and other relevant variables at the highest spatial detail available from national statistical offices and other organizational bodies. This database provides the most detailed up to date picture of present water use and water prices across Europe. The use of homogeneous data allowed us to compare regions and analyze spatial patterns. We applied econometric methods to determine the main determinants of water demand and make a monetary valuation of water for both the domestic and industry sector. This monetary valuation is important to allow water allocation based on economic damage estimates. We also attempted to estimate how population growth, as well as socio-economic and climatic changes impact future water demand up to 2050 using a homogeneous method for all countries. European projections for the identified major drivers of water demand were used to simulate future conditions. Subsequently, water demand functions were applied to estimate future water use and potential economic damage caused by water shortages. We present our results while also providing some estimation of the uncertainty of our predictions.

  6. Estimating regional transmissivity of the Upper Floridan aquifer

    SciTech Connect

    Johnston, R.H. )

    1993-03-01

    The distribution of permeability in the Upper Floridan aquifer is complex due to variations in the original depositional environments and the post-depositional history. The transmissivity of the aquifer is directly related to the thickness and lithology of the overlying confining unit (Miocene clastic deposits). Where this unit has been thinned or removed by erosion, solution-cavity development and thus high transmissivity are common. At depth, transmissivity is affected by the lithology of the carbonate rocks and the occurrence of paleokarst. The transmissivity of the Upper Floridan varies by more than three orders of magnitude: from less than 1,000 feet squared per day in the thickly confined, micrite-rich limestone of the Fort Walton Beach area of panhandle Florida to more than 1,000,000 feet squared per day in the unconfined, karstic areas of central and northern Florida. The application of aquifer-test methods to determine transmissivity of the Upper Floridan aquifer is summarized as follows: (1) Conducting aquifer tests in the unconfined, karstic areas is virtually impossible because of logistical problems (removing large volumes of pumped water to prevent recycling) and because non-Darcian flow can preclude the use of standard aquifer-test methods. However, flow-net analyses using springs as the discharge control have been used successfully to estimate regional transmissivity values. (2) Multi-well aquifer tests outside of karst areas generally provide data plots that match appropriate type curves. (3) Specific capacity is not a good basis for estimating regional transmissivity values. Transmissivity maps of the Floridan should be accompanied by an evaluation of their reliability based on availability of field-test data. If transmissivity values are derived from computer models, the model sensitivity to transmissivity should be discussed.

  7. Methods of valuing air pollution and estimated monetary values of air pollutants in various U.S. regions

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, M.Q.; Santini, D.J.; Warinner, S.A.

    1994-12-01

    Air pollutant emission values are used to determine the social costs of various technologies that cause air pollution and to estimate the benefits of emission control technologies. In this report, the authors present two methods of estimating air pollutant emission values--the damage value method and the control cost method--and review 15 recent studies in which these methods were employed to estimate emission values. The reviewed studies derived emission values for only a limited number of areas; emission value estimates are needed for other US regions. Using the emission values estimated in the reviewed studies, they establish regression relationships between emission values, air pollutant concentrations, and total population exposed, and apply the established relationships to 17 US metropolitan areas to estimate damage-based and control-cost-based emission values for reactive organic gases, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter measuring less than 10 microns, sulfur oxides, and carbon monoxide in these areas. Their estimates show significant variations in emission values across the 17 regions.

  8. Regional estimates of lightning production of nitrogen oxides

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biazar, Arastoo P.; McNider, Richard T.

    1995-11-01

    Summertime distribution of lightning over the United States and the potential importance of lightning-generated NOx (NO + NO2) was investigated by using data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) for June, July, and August 1989 through 1992. The data were compiled and gridded to yield hourly and monthly flash densities. Without correcting the data for the network's detection efficiency, on the average, 10 million flashes occur over the United States each summer with 2.6 strokes occurring per flash. The densest concentration of flashes is over the Southeast. In 1989 the summertime lightning activity (9.4 million flashes) accounted for 70% of the annual flashes. To investigate the regional characteristics of lightning, the data were also compiled for the eastern United States and a smaller subdomain of the southeastern United States. NOx production rates of 0.36×1026, 4×1026, and 30×1026 molecules/flash were chosen to represent the low, median, and high end of estimates suggested by different investigators. Using these three production rates and hourly gridded flash densities, lightning-generated NOx emissions were calculated. These estimates were compared to anthropogenic emissions derived from the 1985 National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) inventory. Based on the high production rate, NOx emissions produced by lightning are comparable to monthly anthropogenic NOx emissions in the Southeast during the summer. Even for the low production rate, hourly emissions of lightning-produced NOx frequently exceed anthropogenic emissions, with the highest frequencies in the Southeast. These results suggest that estimates of lightning-generated NOx in the rural southeastern United States are not negligible and that this natural source of NOx could play a significant role in summertime tropospheric ozone production in the Southeast. Given the importance of NOx in ozone photochemistry, especially in NOx-limited regimes, this natural source cannot

  9. Estimating hillslope-scale soil strength for regional landslide forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hales, Tristram; Miniat, Chelcy; Hwang, Taehee; Band, Lawrence

    2015-04-01

    produce regional estimates of landslide potential in areas with little empirical data, representing a significant step forward in forecasting future landsliding.

  10. Fuzzy/Neural Software Estimates Costs of Rocket-Engine Tests

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Douglas, Freddie; Bourgeois, Edit Kaminsky

    2005-01-01

    The Highly Accurate Cost Estimating Model (HACEM) is a software system for estimating the costs of testing rocket engines and components at Stennis Space Center. HACEM is built on a foundation of adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) a hybrid software concept that combines the adaptive capabilities of neural networks with the ease of development and additional benefits of fuzzy-logic-based systems. In ANFIS, fuzzy inference systems are trained by use of neural networks. HACEM includes selectable subsystems that utilize various numbers and types of inputs, various numbers of fuzzy membership functions, and various input-preprocessing techniques. The inputs to HACEM are parameters of specific tests or series of tests. These parameters include test type (component or engine test), number and duration of tests, and thrust level(s) (in the case of engine tests). The ANFIS in HACEM are trained by use of sets of these parameters, along with costs of past tests. Thereafter, the user feeds HACEM a simple input text file that contains the parameters of a planned test or series of tests, the user selects the desired HACEM subsystem, and the subsystem processes the parameters into an estimate of cost(s).

  11. Automotive Lithium-ion Cell Manufacturing: Regional Cost Structures and Supply Chain Considerations

    SciTech Connect

    Chung, Donald; Elgqvist, Emma; Santhanagopalan, Shriram

    2016-04-01

    Manufacturing capacity for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) — which power many consumer electronics and are increasingly used to power electric vehicles — is heavily concentrated in East Asia. To illuminate the factors that drive regional competitiveness in automotive LIB cell production, this study models cell manufacturing cost and minimum sustainable price, and examines development of LIB supply chains and current LIB market conditions. The study shows that factors driving the cost competitiveness of LIB manufacturing locations are mostly built—supply chain developments and competition, access to materials, and production expertise. Some regional costs — including cost of capital, labor, and materials — are significant and should be considered.

  12. Estimated costs of implementation of membrane processes for on-site greywater recycling.

    PubMed

    Humeau, P; Hourlier, F; Bulteau, G; Massé, A; Jaouen, P; Gérente, C; Faur, C; Le Cloirec, P

    2011-01-01

    Greywater reuse inside buildings is a possible way to preserve water resources and face up to water scarcity. This study is focused on a technical-economic analysis of greywater treatment by a direct nanofiltration (NF) process or by a submerged membrane bioreactor (SMBR) for on-site recycling. The aim of this paper is to analyse the cost of recycled water for two different configurations (50 and 500 inhabitants) in order to demonstrate the relevance of the implementation of membrane processes for greywater recycling, depending on the production capacity of the equipment and the price of drinking water. The first step was to define a method to access the description of the cost of producing recycled water. The direct costs were defined as a sum of fixed costs due to equipment, maintenance and depreciation, and variable costs generated by chemical products and electricity consumptions. They were estimated from an experimental approach and from data found in literature, enabling operating conditions for greywater recycling to be determined. The cost of treated water by a SMBR unit with a processing capacity of 500 persons is close to 4.40 euros m(-3), while the cost is 4.81 euros m(-3) with a NF process running in the same conditions. These costs are similar to the price of drinking water in some European countries.

  13. Estimated Lifetime Medical and Work-Loss Costs of Fatal Injuries--United States, 2013.

    PubMed

    Florence, Curtis; Simon, Thomas; Haegerich, Tamara; Luo, Feijun; Zhou, Chao

    2015-10-02

    Injury-associated deaths have substantial economic consequences. In 2013, unintentional injury was the fourth leading cause of death, suicide was the tenth, and homicide was the sixteenth; these three causes accounted for approximately 187,000 deaths in the United States. To assess the economic impact of fatal injuries, CDC analyzed death data from the National Vital Statistics System for 2013, along with cost of injury data using the Web-Based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System. This report updates a previous study that analyzed death data from the year 2000, and employs recently revised methodology for determining the costs of injury outcomes, which uses the most current economic data and incorporates improvements for estimating medical costs associated with injury. Number of deaths, crude and age-specific death rates, and total lifetime work-loss costs and medical costs were calculated for fatal injuries by sex, age group, intent (intentional versus unintentional), and mechanism of injury. During 2013, the rate of fatal injury was 61.0 per 100,000 population, with combined medical and work-loss costs exceeding $214 billion. Costs from fatal injuries represent approximately one third of the total $671 billion medical and work-loss costs associated with all injuries in 2013. The magnitude of the economic burden associated with injury-associated deaths underscores the need for effective prevention.

  14. Estimating breeding proportions and testing hypotheses about costs of reproduction with capture-recapture data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, James D.; Hines, James E.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Hinz, Robert L.; Link, William A.

    1994-01-01

    The proportion of animals in a population that breeds is an important determinant of population growth rate. Usual estimates of this quantity from field sampling data assume that the probability of appearing in the capture or count statistic is the same for animals that do and do not breed. A similar assumption is required by most existing methods used to test ecologically interesting hypotheses about reproductive costs using field sampling data. However, in many field sampling situations breeding and nonbreeding animals are likely to exhibit different probabilities of being seen or caught. In this paper, we propose the use of multistate capture-recapture models for these estimation and testing problems. This methodology permits a formal test of the hypothesis of equal capture/sighting probabilities for breeding and nonbreeding individuals. Two estimators of breeding proportion (and associated standard errors) are presented, one for the case of equal capture probabilities and one for the case of unequal capture probabilities. The multistate modeling framework also yields formal tests of hypotheses about reproductive costs to future reproduction or survival or both fitness components. The general methodology is illustrated using capture-recapture data on female meadow voles, Microtus pennsylvanicus. Resulting estimates of the proportion of reproductively active females showed strong seasonal variation, as expected, with low breeding proportions in midwinter. We found no evidence of reproductive costs extracted in subsequent survival or reproduction. We believe that this methodological framework has wide application to problems in animal ecology concerning breeding proportions and phenotypic reproductive costs.

  15. A Procedure for Estimating Enrollment and Cost Factors at Potential AFROTC Host-Sites.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alley, William E.; Berberich, George L.

    The development of effectiveness criteria for AFROTC detachments, and relationships between the criteria and various environmental and program characteristics are described. The objective of the study is the development of a method for estimating student enrollments and total operating costs at perspective host-site institutions by using…

  16. NATIONAL STORMWATER CALCULATOR: LOW IMPACT DEVELOPMENT STORMWATER CONTROL COST ESTIMATION PROGRAMMING & FUTURE ENHANCEMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    National Stormwater Calculator: Low Impact Development Stormwater Control Cost Estimation Programming & Future EnhancementsJason Berner1; Michael Tryby1; Scott Struck2, Dan Pankani2, Marion Deerhake3, Michelle Simon11. USEPA2. GeoSyntec, Inc.3. RTI, Inc.The National Stormwater Ca...

  17. An Integrated BIM and Cost Estimating Blended Learning Model--Acceptance Differences between Experts and Novice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wu, Yun-Wu; Wen, Ming-Hui; Chen, Ching-Ming; Hsu, I-Ting

    2016-01-01

    "Building information technology" and "cost estimating" are two core skills of construction education. However, in traditional education, students learn these two important subjects in separate courses. This study proposes a blended learning environment which can provide students with support for their face-to-face learning…

  18. Using National Data to Estimate Average Cost Effectiveness of EFNEP Outcomes by State/Territory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baral, Ranju; Davis, George C.; Blake, Stephanie; You, Wen; Serrano, Elena

    2013-01-01

    This report demonstrates how existing national data can be used to first calculate upper limits on the average cost per participant and per outcome per state/territory for the Expanded Food and Nutrition Education Program (EFNEP). These upper limits can then be used by state EFNEP administrators to obtain more precise estimates for their states,…

  19. The Pilot Training Study: A Cost-Estimating Model for Undergraduate Pilot Training.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Allison, S. L.

    A means for estimating the resource requirements and attendant costs of any configuration of the undergraduate pilot training system (UPT) is described by inputs that are supplied by the user of the model. The inputs consist of data such as UPT graduate requirements, course syllabus requirements, instructor-student ratios, administrative and…

  20. Missile Defense: Cost Estimating Practices Have Improved, and Continued Evaluation Will Determine Effectiveness

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-12-12

    concurred with all three of the criteria for MDA’s rating. AN/ TPY -2 Substantially Met GAO did not concur with two of the three criteria for MDA’s rating...Upgraded Early Warning Radars, and AN/ TPY -2. Page 9 GAO-15-210R Missile Defense Cost Estimates We provided a draft of this report to MDA for comment

  1. PRELIMINARY PERFORMANCE AND COST ESTIMATES OF MERCURY EMISSION CONTROL OPTIONS FOR ELECTRIC UTILITY BOILERS

    EPA Science Inventory


    The paper discusses preliminary performance and cost estimates of mercury emission control options for electric utility boilers. Under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, EPA had to determine whether mercury emissions from coal-fired power plants should be regulated. To a...

  2. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES OF PERFORMANCE AND COST OF MERCURY CONTROL TECHNOLOGY APPLICATIONS ON ELECTRIC UTILITY BOILERS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, the Environmental Protection Agency has determined that regulation of mercury emissions from coal-fired power plants is appropriate and necessary. To aid in this determination, preliminary estimates of the performance and cost of powder...

  3. 40 CFR 144.62 - Cost estimate for plugging and abandonment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... abandonment. 144.62 Section 144.62 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) WATER PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) UNDERGROUND INJECTION CONTROL PROGRAM Financial Responsibility: Class I Hazardous Waste Injection Wells § 144.62 Cost estimate for plugging and abandonment. (a) The owner or...

  4. 40 CFR 144.62 - Cost estimate for plugging and abandonment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... abandonment. 144.62 Section 144.62 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) WATER PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) UNDERGROUND INJECTION CONTROL PROGRAM Financial Responsibility: Class I Hazardous Waste Injection Wells § 144.62 Cost estimate for plugging and abandonment. (a) The owner or...

  5. 40 CFR 144.62 - Cost estimate for plugging and abandonment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... abandonment. 144.62 Section 144.62 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) WATER PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) UNDERGROUND INJECTION CONTROL PROGRAM Financial Responsibility: Class I Hazardous Waste Injection Wells § 144.62 Cost estimate for plugging and abandonment. (a) The owner or...

  6. 40 CFR 144.62 - Cost estimate for plugging and abandonment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... abandonment. 144.62 Section 144.62 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) WATER PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) UNDERGROUND INJECTION CONTROL PROGRAM Financial Responsibility: Class I Hazardous Waste Injection Wells § 144.62 Cost estimate for plugging and abandonment. (a) The owner or...

  7. 40 CFR 144.62 - Cost estimate for plugging and abandonment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... abandonment. 144.62 Section 144.62 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) WATER PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) UNDERGROUND INJECTION CONTROL PROGRAM Financial Responsibility: Class I Hazardous Waste Injection Wells § 144.62 Cost estimate for plugging and abandonment. (a) The owner or...

  8. Using Cost Estimating Relationships to Develop A Price Index for Tactical Aircraft

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-04-30

    stealth (Nelson, Harmon, Bontz, & Devers , 2001). By including the quantity variables in the regression, the coefficients of the quality variables are...D-908-REV). Alexandria, VA: Institute for Defense Analyses. Nelson, R., Harmon, B. R., Bontz, R. J., & Devers , W. C. (2001, June). Cost estimating

  9. 48 CFR 736.605 - Government cost estimate for architect-engineer work.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... for architect-engineer work. 736.605 Section 736.605 Federal Acquisition Regulations System AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT SPECIAL CATEGORIES OF CONTRACTING CONSTRUCTION AND ARCHITECT-ENGINEER CONTRACTS Architect-Engineer Services 736.605 Government cost estimate for architect-engineer work. See 736.602-3(c)(5)....

  10. 48 CFR 36.605 - Government cost estimate for architect-engineer work.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... for architect-engineer work. 36.605 Section 36.605 Federal Acquisition Regulations System FEDERAL ACQUISITION REGULATION SPECIAL CATEGORIES OF CONTRACTING CONSTRUCTION AND ARCHITECT-ENGINEER CONTRACTS Architect-Engineer Services 36.605 Government cost estimate for architect-engineer work. (a) An...

  11. 48 CFR 436.605 - Government cost estimate for architect-engineer work.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... for architect-engineer work. 436.605 Section 436.605 Federal Acquisition Regulations System DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SPECIAL CATEGORIES OF CONTRACTING CONSTRUCTION AND ARCHITECT-ENGINEER CONTRACTS Architect-Engineer Service 436.605 Government cost estimate for architect-engineer work. The...

  12. 48 CFR 1336.605 - Government cost estimate for architect-engineer work.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... for architect-engineer work. 1336.605 Section 1336.605 Federal Acquisition Regulations System DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE SPECIAL CATEGORIES OF CONTRACTING CONSTRUCTION AND ARCHITECT-ENGINEER CONTRACTS Architect-Engineer Services 1336.605 Government cost estimate for architect-engineer work. After award,...

  13. Estimated Costs of Organizing a P-16 Education System. Preschool through Postsecondary.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Augenblick, John; Pettersen, Josiah

    This paper presents estimates of the added costs and potential savings associated with reorganizing public education from the current unintegrated system to a fully integrated P-16 system. (P-16 systems are attempts to create a coherent, flexible system of public education that stretches from preschool through the fourth year of college.) Models…

  14. The cost of generic clinical mastitis in dairy cows as estimated by using dynamic programming.

    PubMed

    Bar, D; Tauer, L W; Bennett, G; González, R N; Hertl, J A; Schukken, Y H; Schulte, H F; Welcome, F L; Gröhn, Y T

    2008-06-01

    The objective of this study was to estimate the cost of generic clinical mastitis (CM) in high-yielding dairy cows given optimal decisions concerning handling of CM cases. A specially structured optimization and simulation model that included a detailed representation of repeated episodes of CM was used to study the effects of various factors on the cost of CM. The basic scenario was based on data from 5 large herds in New York State. In the basic scenario, 92% of the CM cases were recommended to be treated. The average cost of CM per cow and year in these herds was $71. The average cost of a CM case was $179. It was composed of $115 because of milk yield losses, $14 because of increased mortality, and $50 because of treatment-associated costs. The estimated cost of CM was highly dependent on cow traits: it was highest ($403) in cows with high expected future net returns (e.g., young, high-milk-yielding cows), and was lowest ($3) in cows that were recommended to be culled for reasons other than mastitis. The cost per case of CM was 18% higher with a 20% increase in milk price and 17% lower with a 20% decrease in milk price. The cost per case of CM was affected little by a 20% change in replacement cost or pregnancy rate. Changes in CM incidence, however, resulted from changes in these factors, thus affecting whole-farm profitability. The detailed results obtained from this insemination and replacement optimization model can assist farmers in making CM treatment decisions.

  15. Cost implications of uncertainty in CO2 storage resource estimates: A review

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, Steven T.

    2017-01-01

    Carbon capture from stationary sources and geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) is an important option to include in strategies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. However, the potential costs of commercial-scale CO2 storage are not well constrained, stemming from the inherent uncertainty in storage resource estimates coupled with a lack of detailed estimates of the infrastructure needed to access those resources. Storage resource estimates are highly dependent on storage efficiency values or storage coefficients, which are calculated based on ranges of uncertain geological and physical reservoir parameters. If dynamic factors (such as variability in storage efficiencies, pressure interference, and acceptable injection rates over time), reservoir pressure limitations, boundaries on migration of CO2, consideration of closed or semi-closed saline reservoir systems, and other possible constraints on the technically accessible CO2 storage resource (TASR) are accounted for, it is likely that only a fraction of the TASR could be available without incurring significant additional costs. Although storage resource estimates typically assume that any issues with pressure buildup due to CO2 injection will be mitigated by reservoir pressure management, estimates of the costs of CO2 storage generally do not include the costs of active pressure management. Production of saline waters (brines) could be essential to increasing the dynamic storage capacity of most reservoirs, but including the costs of this critical method of reservoir pressure management could increase current estimates of the costs of CO2 storage by two times, or more. Even without considering the implications for reservoir pressure management, geologic uncertainty can significantly impact CO2 storage capacities and costs, and contribute to uncertainty in carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems. Given the current state of available information and the scarcity of (data from) long-term commercial-scale CO2

  16. Key Aspects of the Federal Direct Loan Program's Cost Estimates: Department of Education. Report to Congressional Requesters.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Calbom, Linda M.; Ashby, Cornelia M.

    Because of concerns about the Department of Education's reliance on estimates to project costs of the William D. Ford Federal Direct Loan Program (FDLP) and a lack of historical information on which to base those estimates, Congress asked the General Accounting Office (GAO) to review how the department develops its cost estimates for the program,…

  17. Cost estimates and economic evaluations for conceptual LLRW disposal facility designs

    SciTech Connect

    Baird, R.D.; Chau, N.; Breeds, C.D.

    1995-12-31

    Total life-cycle costs were estimated in support of the New York LLRW Siting Commission`s project to select a disposal method from four near-surface LLRW disposal methods (namely, uncovered above-grade vaults, covered above-grade vaults, below-grade vaults, and augered holes) and two mined methods (namely, vertical shaft mines and drift mines). Conceptual designs for the disposal methods were prepared and used as the basis for the cost estimates. Typical economic performance of each disposal method was assessed. Life-cycle costs expressed in 1994 dollars ranged from $ 1,100 million (for below-grade vaults and both mined disposal methods) to $2,000 million (for augered holes). Present values ranged from $620 million (for below-grade vaults) to $ 1,100 million (for augered holes).

  18. Advanced Transportation System Studies. Technical Area 3: Alternate Propulsion Subsystems Concepts. Volume 3; Program Cost Estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levack, Daniel J. H.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this contract was to provide definition of alternate propulsion systems for both earth-to-orbit (ETO) and in-space vehicles (upper stages and space transfer vehicles). For such propulsion systems, technical data to describe performance, weight, dimensions, etc. was provided along with programmatic information such as cost, schedule, needed facilities, etc. Advanced technology and advanced development needs were determined and provided. This volume separately presents the various program cost estimates that were generated under three tasks: the F- IA Restart Task, the J-2S Restart Task, and the SSME Upper Stage Use Task. The conclusions, technical results , and the program cost estimates are described in more detail in Volume I - Executive Summary and in individual Final Task Reports.

  19. Cost estimates for advanced/innovative wind energy conversion systems /AWECS/

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobs, E. W.

    1981-12-01

    Three computer models for determining the economics of advanced wind energy conversion systems (AWECS) in production status are discussed. The SAMICS program, designed for estimating costs of production-line operations, includes details of expenses for a plant in steady-state operation, and yields results in terms of prices, quantities, and a breakdown of cost components. The PRICE model gives cost estimates for electromechanical hardware systems, and comprises design, manufacturing, and subassembly costs. The FAST program derives costs of energy systems in terms of construction and installation. All three models provide production costing, and it is noted that the FAST model can be used as an adjunct to the other two. Small WECS are viewed to become commercially viable at the 10,000 units/yr production level, using a one product job shop mode. Examples for existing 40 kW and 10 kW preproduction model SWECS are provided and a price lowering curve is generated which is similar to a learning curve.

  20. Global and regional emissions estimates for N2O

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saikawa, E.; Prinn, R. G.; Dlugokencky, E.; Ishijima, K.; Dutton, G. S.; Hall, B. D.; Langenfelds, R.; Tohjima, Y.; Machida, T.; Manizza, M.; Rigby, M.; O'Doherty, S.; Patra, P. K.; Harth, C. M.; Weiss, R. F.; Krummel, P. B.; van der Schoot, M.; Fraser, P. J.; Steele, L. P.; Aoki, S.; Nakazawa, T.; Elkins, J. W.

    2014-05-01

    We present a comprehensive estimate of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions using observations and models from 1995 to 2008. High-frequency records of tropospheric N2O are available from measurements at Cape Grim, Tasmania; Cape Matatula, American Samoa; Ragged Point, Barbados; Mace Head, Ireland; and at Trinidad Head, California using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) instrumentation and calibrations. The Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) has also collected discrete air samples in flasks and in situ measurements from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of species including N2O. In addition to these major networks, we include in situ and aircraft measurements from the National Institute of Environmental Studies (NIES) and flask measurements from the Tohoku University and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) networks. All measurements show increasing atmospheric mole fractions of N2O, with a varying growth rate of 0.1-0.7% per year, resulting in a 7.4% increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction between 1979 and 2011. Using existing emission inventories as well as bottom-up process modeling results, we first create globally gridded a priori N2O emissions over the 37 years since 1975. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4), and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions for five source sectors from 13 regions in the world. This is the first time that all of these measurements from multiple networks have been combined to determine emissions. Our inversion indicates that global and regional N2O emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2008. Despite large uncertainties, a significant increase is seen from the Asian agricultural sector in recent years, most likely

  1. Global and regional emissions estimates for N2O

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saikawa, E.; Prinn, R. G.; Dlugokencky, E.; Ishijima, K.; Dutton, G. S.; Hall, B. D.; Langenfelds, R.; Tohjima, Y.; Machida, T.; Manizza, M.; Rigby, M.; O'Doherty, S.; Patra, P. K.; Harth, C. M.; Weiss, R. F.; Krummel, P. B.; van der Schoot, M.; Fraser, P. B.; Steele, L. P.; Aoki, S.; Nakazawa, T.; Elkins, J. W.

    2013-07-01

    We present a comprehensive estimate of nitrous oxide ( N2O) emissions using observations and models from 1995 to 2008. High-frequency records of tropospheric N2O are available from measurements at Cape Grim, Tasmania; Cape Matatula, American Samoa; Ragged Point, Barbados; Mace Head, Ireland; and at Trinidad Head, California using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) instrumentation and calibrations. The Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) has also discrete air samples collected in flasks and in situ measurements from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of species including N2O. In addition to these major networks, we include in situ and aircraft measurements from the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) and flask measurements from the Tohoku University and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) networks. All measurements show increasing atmospheric mole fractions of N2O, with a varying growth rate of 0.1-0.7 % yr-1, resulting in a 7.4% increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction between 1979 and 2011. Using existing emission inventories as well as bottom-up process modeling results, we first create globally-gridded a priori N2O emissions over the 37 yr since 1975. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4), and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions for five source sectors from 13 regions in the world. This is the first time that all of these measurements from multiple networks have been combined to determine emissions. Our inversion indicates that global and regional N2O emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2008. Despite large uncertainties, a significant increase is seen from the Asian agricultural sector in the recent years, most likely

  2. Global and regional emissions estimates for N2O

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saikawa, E.; Prinn, R. G.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Ishijima, K.; Dutton, G. S.; Hall, B. D.; Langenfelds, R.; Tohjima, Y.; Machida, T.; Manizza, M.; Rigby, M. L.; Odoherty, S. J.; Patra, P. K.; Harth, C.; Weiss, R. F.; Krummel, P. B.; van der Schoot, M.; Fraser, P.; Steele, P.; Aoki, S.; Nakazawa, T.; Elkins, J. W.

    2013-12-01

    We present a comprehensive estimate of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions using observations and models from 1995 to 2008. High-frequency records of tropospheric N2O are available from measurements at Cape Grim, Tasmania; Cape Matatula, American Samoa; Ragged Point, Barbados; Mace Head, Ireland; and at Trinidad Head, California using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) instrumentation and calibrations. The Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) has also discrete air samples collected in flasks and in situ measurements from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of species including N2O. In addition to these major networks, we include in situ and aircraft measurements from the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) and flask measurements from the Tohoku University and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) networks. All measurements show increasing atmospheric mole fractions of N2O, with a varying growth rate of 0.1-0.7%yr-1, resulting in a 7.4% increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction between 1979 and 2011. Using existing emission inventories as well as bottom-up process modeling results, we first create globally-gridded a priori N2O emissions over the 37 yr since 1975. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4), and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions for five source sectors from 13 regions in the world. This is the first time that all of these measurements from multiple networks have been combined to determine emissions. Our inversion indicates that global and regional N2O emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2008. Despite large uncertainties, a significant increase is seen from the Asian agricultural sector in the recent years, most likely due

  3. The Development of a Methodology for Estimating the Cost of Air Force On-the-Job Training.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Samers, Bernard N.; And Others

    The Air Force uses a standardized costing methodology for resident technical training schools (TTS); no comparable methodology exists for computing the cost of on-the-job training (OJT). This study evaluates three alternative survey methodologies and a number of cost models for estimating the cost of OJT for airmen training in the Administrative…

  4. Steam-leak cost estimation using thermographically acquired pipe temperature data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madding, Robert P.; MacNamara, Neal A.

    1997-04-01

    Predictive maintenance practitioners readily diagnose steam leaks through drain using infrared thermography, often supplemented with ultrasonic probe verification. Typically, a pipe carries the leaking steam to a flash tank or directly to the condenser. Thus, the energy used to create the steam is what is lost, not the steam itself. However, the cost of steam production is not inexpensive. We have found steam leaks we estimate cost $30 K/year. As a part of the Electric Power Research Institute's (EPRI's) Boiler, Condenser and Steam Cycle Applications Project, the EPRI M&D (Monitoring & Diagnostic) Centers have begun acquiring steam leak data at several electric utilities. Estimates of steam leak costs are key to evaluating cost savings and recommendation of corrective action, but are hampered by lack of knowledge of the steam flow in the line. These lines are usually not instrumented because typically there is no flow. Consequently, we must derive an indirect method of estimating steam flow. This can be done for uninsulated pipes given knowledge of the pipe surface temperature gradient over a known distance. For single phase conditions, the mass flow of steam equals the heat lost from a length of pipe divided by the temperature drop along the length and the heat capacity of the steam. Pipe heat loss is calculated knowing the pipe diameter, pipe surface temperature, ambient air temperature and using American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) tabulated values. The temperatures are derived from thermographic data. Distances can also be derived from thermal imaging radiometer data, depending on the type of system employed. To facilitate calculation of steam leak cost estimates, we have developed a Microsoft ExcelTM spreadsheet macro. The user can interface directly with the spreadsheet, entering appropriate temperatures, distances, pipe diameter, heat rate, cost of power, etc. Or, the analyst can use thermal imaging radiometer

  5. Cost estimate of high-level radioactive waste containers for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

    SciTech Connect

    Russell, E.W.; Clarke, W.; Domian, H.A.; Madson, A.A.

    1991-08-01

    This report summarizes the bottoms-up cost estimates for fabrication of high-level radioactive waste disposal containers based on the Site Characterization Plan Conceptual Design (SCP-CD). These estimates were acquired by Babcock and Wilcox (B&S) under sub-contract to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP). The estimates were obtained for two leading container candidate materials (Alloy 825 and CDA 715), and from other three vendors who were selected from a list of twenty solicited. Three types of container designs were analyzed that represent containers for spent fuel, and for vitrified high-level waste (HLW). The container internal structures were assumed to be AISI-304 stainless steel in all cases, with an annual production rate of 750 containers. Subjective techniques were used for estimating QA/QC costs based on vendor experience and the specifications derived for the LLNL-YMP Quality Assurance program. In addition, an independent QA/QC analysis is reported which was prepared by Kasier Engineering. Based on the cost estimates developed, LLNL recommends that values of $825K and $62K be used for the 1991 TSLCC for the spent fuel and HLW containers, respectively. These numbers represent the most conservative among the three vendors, and are for the high-nickel anstenitic steel (Alloy 825). 6 refs., 7 figs.

  6. Uncertainty quantification metrics for whole product life cycle cost estimates in aerospace innovation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwabe, O.; Shehab, E.; Erkoyuncu, J.

    2015-08-01

    The lack of defensible methods for quantifying cost estimate uncertainty over the whole product life cycle of aerospace innovations such as propulsion systems or airframes poses a significant challenge to the creation of accurate and defensible cost estimates. Based on the axiomatic definition of uncertainty as the actual prediction error of the cost estimate, this paper provides a comprehensive overview of metrics used for the uncertainty quantification of cost estimates based on a literature review, an evaluation of publicly funded projects such as part of the CORDIS or Horizon 2020 programs, and an analysis of established approaches used by organizations such NASA, the U.S. Department of Defence, the ESA, and various commercial companies. The metrics are categorized based on their foundational character (foundations), their use in practice (state-of-practice), their availability for practice (state-of-art) and those suggested for future exploration (state-of-future). Insights gained were that a variety of uncertainty quantification metrics exist whose suitability depends on the volatility of available relevant information, as defined by technical and cost readiness level, and the number of whole product life cycle phases the estimate is intended to be valid for. Information volatility and number of whole product life cycle phases can hereby be considered as defining multi-dimensional probability fields admitting various uncertainty quantification metric families with identifiable thresholds for transitioning between them. The key research gaps identified were the lacking guidance grounded in theory for the selection of uncertainty quantification metrics and lacking practical alternatives to metrics based on the Central Limit Theorem. An innovative uncertainty quantification framework consisting of; a set-theory based typology, a data library, a classification system, and a corresponding input-output model are put forward to address this research gap as the basis

  7. Wide Differences in the Estimation of Cost in Endovenous Laser Therapy for Varicose Veins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lattimer, Christopher R.; Piper, Stephen; Kalodiki, Evi; Trueman, Paul; Geroulakos, George

    2011-08-01

    PURPOSE: To investigate differences in cost of endovenous laser therapy (EVLT) using a top-down approach derived from the Annual Report versus a clinically orientated, bottom-up approach at a single hospital. METHODS: Information was obtained from: the day-case activity Service Line Report (SLR) income statement for general surgery, comparative data from the National Audit Commission, reference costs from the hospital finance department on 69 patients and calculations on individual treatment times and session slots (2 EVLT's per 3.5 hr session) on 37 consecutive patients. Duration of treatment, consumables (over £3) and staff pay were also recorded. Overheads were estimated at 15% and adjustments were made based on location and length of stay. RESULTS: Using a top-down approach with SLR data the total cost of EVLT was estimated at £963.78 per treatment after adjustments for services and consumables. This compares with £1,073.34 using national data. The hospital reference costs per treatment ranged from £767.56 overall by local procedure code (HRG-QZ10B) to £2,353.79 with individual samples. In the bottom-up approach median duration of EVLT was 86 mins (95% CI: 82-95, IQR: 26). With timed treatments median cost per individual treatment was £597.68 (95% CI: 587.65-621.25, IQR: 67.87) compared to £647.28 per session slot. CONCLUSION: Cost estimations of EVLT demonstrate an up to 4-fold difference. Lack of clinical engagement in the top-down approach leads to overestimations. Overheads are underestimated with a bottom-up approach. This variability should be accounted when comparing treatments or interpreting cost-effectiveness analyses.

  8. Experiments, conceptual design, preliminary cost estimates and schedules for an underground research facility

    SciTech Connect

    Korbin, G.; Wollenberg, H.; Wilson, C.; Strisower, B.; Chan, T.; Wedge, D.

    1981-09-01

    Plans for an underground research facility are presented, incorporating techniques to assess the hydrological and thermomechanical response of a rock mass to the introduction and long-term isolation of radioactive waste, and to assess the effects of excavation on the hydrologic integrity of a repository and its subsequent backfill, plugging, and sealing. The project is designed to utilize existing mine or civil works for access to experimental areas and is estimated to last 8 years at a total cost for contruction and operation of $39.0 million (1981 dollars). Performing the same experiments in an existing underground research facility would reduce the duration to 7-1/2 years and cost $27.7 million as a lower-bound estimate. These preliminary plans and estimates should be revised after specific sites are identified which would accommodate the facility.

  9. A propensity score approach to estimating the cost-effectiveness of medical therapies from observational data.

    PubMed

    Mitra, Nandita; Indurkhya, Alka

    2005-08-01

    Health summary measures are commonly used by policy makers to help make decisions on the allocation of societal resources for competing medical treatments. The net monetary benefit is a health summary measure that overcomes the statistical limitations of a popular measure namely, the cost-effectiveness ratio. We introduce a linear model framework to estimate propensity score adjusted net monetary benefit. This method provides less biased estimates in the presence of significant differences in baseline measures and demographic characteristics between treatment groups in quasi-randomized or observational studies. Simulation studies were conducted to better understand the utility of propensity score adjusted estimates of net monetary benefits when important covariates are unobserved. The results indicated that the propensity score adjusted net monetary benefit provides a robust measure of cost-effectiveness in the presence of hidden bias. The methods are illustrated using data from SEER-Medicare for the treatment of bladder cancer.

  10. Estimated increases in the cost of electricity under three acid-rain control bills

    SciTech Connect

    Hillsman, E.L. ); Alvic, D.R. )

    1991-01-01

    Several bills were introduced in the past two Congresses to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides from electric power plants. The effects of these bills on electricity costs depend on features of the bills, on the mix of generating capacity owned by different electric utilities, on the technologies available for complying with the legislation, and on the time horizon used to calculate the costs. A system of computer software has been developed to make utility-specific estimates of the effects of different legislation on electricity costs. This paper presents sample results from a larger analysis of six pieces of legislation. These results suggest that the emissions trading systems proposed in some legislation, and adopted in the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1991, may have less effect than expected on the cost of complying with the legislation. 5 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs.

  11. Cost-effectiveness of improved treatment services for sexually transmitted diseases in preventing HIV-1 infection in Mwanza Region, Tanzania.

    PubMed

    Gilson, L; Mkanje, R; Grosskurth, H; Mosha, F; Picard, J; Gavyole, A; Todd, J; Mayaud, P; Swai, R; Fransen, L; Mabey, D; Mills, A; Hayes, R

    Improved management of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) is consistently advocated as an effective strategy for HIV prevention. The impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness of this approach were evaluated in a prospective, comparative study of six communities in Tanzania's Mwanza Region in which primary health care center workers were trained to provide improved STD treatment and six matched non-intervention communities. The baseline prevalence of HIV was 4% in both groups. During the 2-year study period, 11,632 cases of STDs were treated in the intervention health units. The HIV seroconversion rate was 1.16% in the intervention communities and 1.86% in the comparison communities--a difference in HIV incidence of 0.70 (95% confidence interval, 0.37-1.09) and a reduction of about 40%. The total annual cost of the intervention was US$59,060 ($0.39 per person served). The cost of STD treatment was $10.15 per case. An estimated 252 HIV-1 infections were averted each year. The incremental annual cost of the program was $54,839, equivalent to $217.62 per HIV infection averted and $10.33 per disability-adjusted-life-year (DALY) saved. The estimated cost-effectiveness compares favorably with that of childhood immunization programs ($12-17 per DALY saved) and could be further enhanced through implementation of the intervention on a wider scale. The intervention subsequently has been expanded to encompass 65 health units in Mwanza Region, with no increase in investment costs.

  12. Cost analysis of ground-water supplies in the North Atlantic region, 1970

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cederstrom, Dagfin John

    1973-01-01

    The cost of municipal and industrial ground water (or, more specifically, large supplies of ground water) at the wellhead in the North Atlantic Region in 1970 generally ranged from 1.5 to 5 cents per thousand gallons. Water from crystalline rocks and shale is relatively expensive. Water from sandstone is less so. Costs of water from sands and gravels in glaciated areas and from Coastal Plain sediments range from moderate to very low. In carbonate rocks costs range from low to fairly high. The cost of ground water at the wellhead is low in areas of productive aquifers, but owing to the cost of connecting pipe, costs increase significantly in multiple-well fields. In the North Atlantic Region, development of small to moderate supplies of ground water may offer favorable cost alternatives to planners, but large supplies of ground water for delivery to one point cannot generally be developed inexpensively. Well fields in the less productive aquifers may be limited by costs to 1 or 2 million gallons a day, but in the more favorable aquifers development of several tens of millions of gallons a day may be practicable and inexpensive. Cost evaluations presented cannot be applied to any one specific well or specific site because yields of wells in any one place will depend on the local geologic and hydrologic conditions; however, with such cost adjustments as may be necessary, the methodology presented should have wide applicability. Data given show the cost of water at the wellhead based on the average yield of several wells. The cost of water delivered by a well field includes costs of connecting pipe and of wells that have the yields and spacings specified. Cost of transport of water from the well field to point of consumption and possible cost of treatment are not evaluated. In the methodology employed, costs of drilling and testing, pumping equipment, engineering for the well field, amortization at 5% percent interest, maintenance, and cost of power are considered. The

  13. A Low Cost Approach to Simultaneous Orbit, Attitude, and Rate Estimation Using an Extended Kalman Filter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Deutschmann, Julie; Harman, Rick; Bar-Itzhack, Itzhack

    1998-01-01

    An innovative approach to autonomous attitude and trajectory estimation is available using only magnetic field data and rate data. The estimation is performed simultaneously using an Extended Kalman Filter, a well known algorithm used extensively in onboard applications. The magnetic field is measured on a satellite by a magnetometer, an inexpensive and reliable sensor flown on virtually all satellites in low earth orbit. Rate data is provided by a gyro, which can be costly. This system has been developed and successfully tested in a post-processing mode using magnetometer and gyro data from 4 satellites supported by the Flight Dynamics Division at Goddard. In order for this system to be truly low cost, an alternative source for rate data must be utilized. An independent system which estimate spacecraft rate has been successfully developed and tested using only magnetometer data or a combination of magnetometer data and sun sensor data, which is less costly than a gyro. This system also uses an Extended Kalman Filter. Merging the two systems will provide an extremely low cost, autonomous approach to attitude and trajectory estimation. In this work we provide the theoretical background of the combined system. The measurement matrix is developed by combining the measurement matrix of the orbit and attitude estimation EKF with the measurement matrix of the rate estimation EKF, which is composed of a pseudo-measurement which makes the effective measurement a function of the angular velocity. Associated with this is the development of the noise covariance matrix associated with the original measurement combined with the new pseudo-measurement. In addition, the combination of the dynamics from the two systems is presented along with preliminary test results.

  14. A low cost approach to simultaneous orbit, attitude, and rate estimation using an extended Kalman filter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Deutschmann, Julie; Harman, Rick; Bar-Itzhack, Itzhack

    1998-01-01

    An innovative approach to autonomous attitude and trajectory estimation is available using only magnetic field data and rate data. The estimation is performed simultaneously using an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), a well known algorithm used extensively in onboard applications. The magnetic field is measured on a satellite by a magnetometer, an inexpensive and reliable sensor flown on virtually all satellites in low earth orbit. Rate data is provided by a gyro, which can be costly. This system has been developed and successfully tested in a post-processing mode using magnetometer and gyro data from 4 satellites supported by the Flight Dynamics Division at Goddard. In order for this system to be truly low cost, an alternative source for rate data must be utilized. An independent system which estimates spacecraft rate has been successfully developed and tested using only magnetometer data or a combination of magnetometer data and sun sensor data, which is less costly than a gyro. This system also uses an EKF. Merging the two systems will provide an extremely low cost, autonomous approach to attitude and trajectory estimation. In this work we provide the theoretical background of the combined system. The measurement matrix is developed by combining the measurement matrix of the orbit and attitude estimation EKF with the measurement matrix of the rate estimation EKF, which is composed of a pseudo-measurement which makes the effective measurement a function of the angular velocity. Associated with this is the development of the noise covariance matrix associated with the original measurement combined with the new pseudo-measurement. In addition, the combination of the dynamics from the two systems is presented along with preliminary test results.

  15. A comparison of estimates of cost-effectiveness of alternative fuels and vehicles for reducing emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Hadder, G.R.

    1995-11-01

    The cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) is a measure of the monetary value of resources expended to obtain reductions in emissions of air pollutants. The CER can lead to selection of the most effective sequence of pollution reduction options. Derived with different methodologies and technical assumptions, CER estimates for alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) have varied widely among pervious studies. In one of several explanations of LCER differences, this report uses a consistent basis for fuel price to re-estimate CERs for AFVs in reduction of emissions of criteria pollutants, toxics, and greenhouse gases. The re-estimated CERs for a given fuel type have considerable differences due to non-fuel costs and emissions reductions, but the CERs do provide an ordinal sense of cost-effectiveness. The category with CER less than $5,000 per ton includes compressed natural gas and ed Petroleum gas vehicles; and E85 flexible-fueled vehicles (with fuel mixture of 85 percent cellulose-derived ethanol in gasoline). The E85 system would be much less attractive if corn-derived ethanol were used. The CER for E85 (corn-derived) is higher with higher values placed on the reduction of gas emissions. CER estimates are relative to conventional vehicles fueled with Phase 1 California reformulated gasoline (RFG). The California Phase 2 RFG program will be implemented before significant market penetration by AFVs. CERs could be substantially greater if they are calculated incremental to the Phase 2 RFG program. Regression analysis suggests that different assumptions across studies can sometimes have predictable effects on the CER estimate of a particular AFV type. The relative differences in cost and emissions reduction assumptions can be large, and the effect of these differences on the CER estimate is often not predictable. Decomposition of CERs suggests that methodological differences can make large contributions to CER differences among studies.

  16. Ballistic Missile Defense: Actions Needed to Address Implementation Issues and Estimate Long-Term Costs for European Capabilities

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-04-01

    BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE Actions Needed to Address Implementation Issues and Estimate Long-Term Costs for...and Estimate Long-Term Costs for European Capabilities 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT...requesters April 2014 BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE Actions Needed to Address Implementation Issues and Estimate Long-Term Costs for European Capabilities

  17. An Application of UAV Attitude Estimation Using a Low-Cost Inertial Navigation System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eure, Kenneth W.; Quach, Cuong Chi; Vazquez, Sixto L.; Hogge, Edward F.; Hill, Boyd L.

    2013-01-01

    Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) are playing an increasing role in aviation. Various methods exist for the computation of UAV attitude based on low cost microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) and Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers. There has been a recent increase in UAV autonomy as sensors are becoming more compact and onboard processing power has increased significantly. Correct UAV attitude estimation will play a critical role in navigation and separation assurance as UAVs share airspace with civil air traffic. This paper describes attitude estimation derived by post-processing data from a small low cost Inertial Navigation System (INS) recorded during the flight of a subscale commercial off the shelf (COTS) UAV. Two discrete time attitude estimation schemes are presented here in detail. The first is an adaptation of the Kalman Filter to accommodate nonlinear systems, the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). The EKF returns quaternion estimates of the UAV attitude based on MEMS gyro, magnetometer, accelerometer, and pitot tube inputs. The second scheme is the complementary filter which is a simpler algorithm that splits the sensor frequency spectrum based on noise characteristics. The necessity to correct both filters for gravity measurement errors during turning maneuvers is demonstrated. It is shown that the proposed algorithms may be used to estimate UAV attitude. The effects of vibration on sensor measurements are discussed. Heuristic tuning comments pertaining to sensor filtering and gain selection to achieve acceptable performance during flight are given. Comparisons of attitude estimation performance are made between the EKF and the complementary filter.

  18. Optimum threshold estimation based on cost function in a multistate diagnostic setting.

    PubMed

    Skaltsa, Konstantina; Jover, Lluís; Fuster, David; Carrasco, Josep Lluís

    2012-05-20

    In the diagnostic area, the usual setting considers two populations: nondiseased and diseased. The use of the standard ROC analysis methodology is well established. Sometimes, however, diagnostic problems inherently include more than two classification states. For example, 'yes, uncertain, no' or 'low, normal, high'. Here we consider a three-normal distribution setting and derive estimators for the optimum thresholds between states based on a cost function. These estimators can be extended for clinical contexts with more than three states. This approach is well known for the two-state setting and its advantage lies in the fact that it accounts for the specific context's properties, such as disease prevalence and classification costs. Here we calculated the variance of the estimators by the use of parametric methods on nonlinear equations and we constructed confidence intervals accounting for possible uncertainty in the threshold estimation. We conducted a simulation study to assess the performance of these estimators and the confidence intervals. Comparisons with the naive threshold estimation method of joining the distributions two-by-two and applying standard ROC techniques proved that the latter method is not reliable for all parameter combinations and should be avoided.

  19. Annual national direct and indirect cost estimates of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer in Brazil

    PubMed Central

    Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh; Itria, Alexander; Silva, Gulnar Azevedo e; Sartori, Ana Marli Christovam; Rama, Cristina Helena; de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To estimate the annual direct and indirect costs of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer in Brazil. METHODS: This cost description study used a "gross-costing" methodology and adopted the health system and societal perspectives. The estimates were grouped into sets of procedures performed in phases of cervical cancer care: the screening, diagnosis and treatment of precancerous lesions and the treatment of cervical cancer. The costs were estimated for the public and private health systems, using data from national health information systems, population surveys, and literature reviews. The cost estimates are presented in 2006 USD. RESULTS: From the societal perspective, the estimated total costs of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer amounted to USD $1,321,683,034, which was categorized as follows: procedures (USD $213,199,490), visits (USD $325,509,842), transportation (USD $106,521,537) and productivity losses (USD $676,452,166). Indirect costs represented 51% of the total costs, followed by direct medical costs (visits and procedures) at 41% and direct non-medical costs (transportation) at 8%. The public system represented 46% of the total costs, and the private system represented 54%. CONCLUSION: Our national cost estimates of cervical cancer prevention and treatment, indicating the economic importance of cervical cancer screening and care, will be useful in monitoring the effect of the HPV vaccine introduction and are of interest in research and health care management. PMID:26017797

  20. Estimation of economic costs of particulate air pollution from road transport in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, X. R.; Cheng, S. Y.; Chen, D. S.; Zhou, Y.; Wang, H. Y.

    2010-09-01

    Valuation of health effects of air pollution is becoming a critical component of the performance of cost-benefit analysis of pollution control measures, which provides a basis for setting priorities for action. Beijing has focused on control of transport emission as vehicular emissions have recently become an important source of air pollution, particularly during Olympic games and Post-games. In this paper, we conducted an estimation of health effects and economic cost caused by road transport-related air pollution using an integrated assessment approach which utilizes air quality model, engineering, epidemiology, and economics. The results show that the total economic cost of health impacts due to air pollution contributed from transport in Beijing during 2004-2008 was 272, 297, 310, 323, 298 million US (mean value), respectively. The economic costs of road transport accounted for 0.52, 0.57, 0.60, 0.62, and 0.58% of annual Beijing GDP from 2004 to 2008. Average cost per vehicle and per ton of PM 10 emission from road transport can also be estimated as 106 US /number and 3584 US $ t -1, respectively. These findings illustrate that the impact of road transport contributed particulate air pollution on human health could be substantial in Beijing, whether in physical and economic terms. Therefore, some control measures to reduce transport emissions could lead to considerable economic benefit.

  1. Design and cost estimate for the SRL integrated hot off gas facility using selective adsorption

    SciTech Connect

    Pence, D T; Kirstein, B E

    1981-07-01

    Based on the results of an engineering-scale demonstration program, a design and cost estimate were performed for a 25-m/sup 3//h (15-ft/sup 3//min) capacity pilot plant demonstration system using selective adsorption technology for installation at the Integrated Hot Off Gas Facility at the Savannah River Plant. The design includes provisions for the destruction of NO/sub x/ and the concentration and removal of radioisotopes of ruthenium, iodine-129, tritiated water vapor, carbon-14 contaminated carbon dioxide, and krypton-85. The nobel gases are separated by the use of selective adsorption on mordenite-type zeolites. The theory of noble gas adsorption on zeolites is essentially the same as that for the adsorption of noble gases on activated charcoals. Considerable detail is provided regarding the application of the theory to adsorbent bed designs and operation. The design is based on a comprehensive material balance and appropriate heat transfer calculations. Details are provided on techniques and procedures used for heating, cooling, and desorbing the adsorbent columns. Analyses are also given regarding component and arrangement selection and includes discussions on alternative arrangements. The estimated equipment costs for the described treatment system is about $1,400,000. The cost estimate includes a detailed equipment list of all the major component items in the design. Related technical issues and estimated system performance are also discussed.

  2. Orbital Spacecraft Consumables Resupply System (OSCRS). Volume 3: Program Cost Estimate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perry, D. L.

    1986-01-01

    A cost analysis for the design, development, qualification, and production of the monopropellant and bipropellant Orbital Spacecraft Consumable Resupply System (OSCRS) tankers, their associated avionics located in the Orbiter payload bay, and the unique ground support equipment (GSE) and airborne support equipment (ASE) required to support operations is presented. Monopropellant resupply for the Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO) in calendar year 1991 is the first defined resupply mission with bipropellant resupply missions expected in the early to mid 1990's. The monopropellant program estimate also includes contractor costs associated with operations support through the first GRO resupply mission.

  3. Probabilistic cost estimation methods for treatment of water extracted during CO2 storage and EOR

    DOE PAGES

    Graham, Enid J. Sullivan; Chu, Shaoping; Pawar, Rajesh J.

    2015-08-08

    Extraction and treatment of in situ water can minimize risk for large-scale CO2 injection in saline aquifers during carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), and for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Additionally, treatment and reuse of oil and gas produced waters for hydraulic fracturing will conserve scarce fresh-water resources. Each treatment step, including transportation and waste disposal, generates economic and engineering challenges and risks; these steps should be factored into a comprehensive assessment. We expand the water treatment model (WTM) coupled within the sequestration system model CO2-PENS and use chemistry data from seawater and proposed injection sites in Wyoming, to demonstratemore » the relative importance of different water types on costs, including little-studied effects of organic pretreatment and transportation. We compare the WTM with an engineering water treatment model, utilizing energy costs and transportation costs. Specific energy costs for treatment of Madison Formation brackish and saline base cases and for seawater compared closely between the two models, with moderate differences for scenarios incorporating energy recovery. Transportation costs corresponded for all but low flow scenarios (<5000 m3/d). Some processes that have high costs (e.g., truck transportation) do not contribute the most variance to overall costs. Other factors, including feed-water temperature and water storage costs, are more significant contributors to variance. These results imply that the WTM can provide good estimates of treatment and related process costs (AACEI equivalent level 5, concept screening, or level 4, study or feasibility), and the complex relationships between processes when extracted waters are evaluated for use during CCUS and EOR site development.« less

  4. Variations inf Ninbus-7 cloud estimates. Part II: Regional changes

    SciTech Connect

    Weare, B.C. )

    1992-12-01

    Regional estimates of low, middle, high and total cloud amounts derived from bispectral measurements from Nimbus-7 have been analyzed for the six-year period April 1979 through March 1985. Fractional cloud cover for the three height categories was used to calculate a proxy mean cloud-top height. Intra- and interannual standard deviations of total cloud amount and mean cloud height show realistic patterns throughout most of the globe except at very high latitudes. Over much of the earth, intra-annual and interannual variations in total cloud amount are strongly positively correlated with variations in cloud height. Furthermore, both total cloud amount and cloud height variations are moderately correlated with sea surface temperature variations. The strongest correlations are positive in the tropics for both intra-annual and interannual variations. In middle latitudes, moderate negative correlations are associated with intra-annual variations, whereas moderate positive correlations occur on interannual time frames. In the tropics 1[degrees]C changes in temperature are statistically related to a change of total cloudiness of a least 2% and a change in cloud height of more than 0.5 km. 15 refs., 9 figs.

  5. Regional and Satellite Data on NPP: Comparison, Estimation and Extrapolation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shuvaev, Andrey; Bartsev, Sergey I.; Ivanova, Yuliya

    Changes that take place nowadays in planet climatic system are acknowledged fact. The doubts and disagreements arise about the questions on mechanisms and the causes of changes. Majority of researches suppose that the reason is in the anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere. Our investigation is directed to studying the carbon fluxes in forest ecosystems and the biosphere as a whole. The data from the longstanding measurements of the trees morphometric parameters at the Ermakov region of Krasnoyarsk territory were used for computation. The obtained data of territory NPP was analyzed and compared with the data obtained from remote probing that were computed by means of the well-known global production efficiency model (GloPEM). Detail investigation of forest ecosystems NPP in situ makes us able to estimate the NPP value space monitoring quality. Also the results obtained can be used for verification of the biosphere model both on the study of the NPP dynamics level and in future for the working up the possible scenarios of climatic changes.

  6. Cost estimates of spinal versus general anaesthesia for fractured neck of femur surgery.

    PubMed

    Chakladar, A; White, S M

    2010-08-01

    It remains uncertain whether spinal anaesthesia is preferable to general anaesthesia for surgical repair of hip fracture, but one determining factor is the comparative cost. A detailed cost analysis relating to 20 consultants' intended anaesthetic practice (which provided information of consumables used) and data from the Brighton Hip Fracture Database was performed to quantify any difference in the costs of administering spinal versus general anaesthesia for patients with hip fracture. Although spinal anaesthesia took significantly longer to administer (mean (SD) time 31 (15) min vs 27 (16) min; p < 0.0001), the mean (SD) cost of spinal anaesthesia (193.81 pounds (37.49)) was significantly less than the cost of general anaesthesia (270.58 pounds (44.68); p < 0.0001). The mean percentage cost of anaesthesia was 3.8% of hospital income per hip fracture, and personnel contributed approximately 46% of this cost. While such considerations indicate that spinal anaesthesia is financially preferable, it is unknown whether differential clinical outcomes between regional and general anaesthesia may offset this apparent monetary advantage.

  7. Development of hybrid lifecycle cost estimating tool (HLCET) for manufacturing influenced design tradeoff

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sirirojvisuth, Apinut

    In complex aerospace system design, making an effective design decision requires multidisciplinary knowledge from both product and process perspectives. Integrating manufacturing considerations into the design process is most valuable during the early design stages since designers have more freedom to integrate new ideas when changes are relatively inexpensive in terms of time and effort. Several metrics related to manufacturability are cost, time, and manufacturing readiness level (MRL). Yet, there is a lack of structured methodology that quantifies how changes in the design decisions impact these metrics. As a result, a new set of integrated cost analysis tools are proposed in this study to quantify the impacts. Equally important is the capability to integrate this new cost tool into the existing design methodologies without sacrificing agility and flexibility required during the early design phases. To demonstrate the applicability of this concept, a ModelCenter environment is used to develop software architecture that represents Integrated Product and Process Development (IPPD) methodology used in several aerospace systems designs. The environment seamlessly integrates product and process analysis tools and makes effective transition from one design phase to the other while retaining knowledge gained a priori. Then, an advanced cost estimating tool called Hybrid Lifecycle Cost Estimating Tool (HLCET), a hybrid combination of weight-, process-, and activity-based estimating techniques, is integrated with the design framework. A new weight-based lifecycle cost model is created based on Tailored Cost Model (TCM) equations [3]. This lifecycle cost tool estimates the program cost based on vehicle component weights and programmatic assumptions. Additional high fidelity cost tools like process-based and activity-based cost analysis methods can be used to modify the baseline TCM result as more knowledge is accumulated over design iterations. Therefore, with this

  8. Critical analysis of the Hanford spent nuclear fuel project activity based cost estimate

    SciTech Connect

    Warren, R.N.

    1998-09-29

    In 1997, the SNFP developed a baseline change request (BCR) and submitted it to DOE-RL for approval. The schedule was formally evaluated to have a 19% probability of success [Williams, 1998]. In December 1997, DOE-RL Manager John Wagoner approved the BCR contingent upon a subsequent independent review of the new baseline. The SNFP took several actions during the first quarter of 1998 to prepare for the independent review. The project developed the Estimating Requirements and Implementation Guide [DESH, 1998] and trained cost account managers (CAMS) and other personnel involved in the estimating process in activity-based cost (ABC) estimating techniques. The SNFP then applied ABC estimating techniques to develop the basis for the December Baseline (DB) and documented that basis in Basis of Estimate (BOE) books. These BOEs were provided to DOE in April 1998. DOE commissioned Professional Analysis, Inc. (PAI) to perform a critical analysis (CA) of the DB. PAI`s review formally began on April 13. PAI performed the CA, provided three sets of findings to the SNFP contractor, and initiated reconciliation meetings. During the course of PAI`s review, DOE directed the SNFP to develop a new baseline with a higher probability of success. The contractor transmitted the new baseline, which is referred to as the High Probability Baseline (HPB), to DOE on April 15, 1998 [Williams, 1998]. The HPB was estimated to approach a 90% confidence level on the start of fuel movement [Williams, 1998]. This high probability resulted in an increased cost and a schedule extension. To implement the new baseline, the contractor initiated 26 BCRs with supporting BOES. PAI`s scope was revised on April 28 to add reviewing the HPB and the associated BCRs and BOES.

  9. Equipment Design and Cost Estimation for Small Modular Biomass Systems, Synthesis Gas Cleanup, and Oxygen Separation Equipment; Task 2: Gas Cleanup Design and Cost Estimates -- Black Liquor Gasification

    SciTech Connect

    Nexant Inc.

    2006-05-01

    As part of Task 2, Gas Cleanup and Cost Estimates, Nexant investigated the appropriate process scheme for removal of acid gases from black liquor-derived syngas for use in both power and liquid fuels synthesis. Two 3,200 metric tonne per day gasification schemes, both low-temperature/low-pressure (1100 deg F, 40 psi) and high-temperature/high-pressure (1800 deg F, 500 psi) were used for syngas production. Initial syngas conditions from each of the gasifiers was provided to the team by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Princeton University. Nexant was the prime contractor and principal investigator during this task; technical assistance was provided by both GTI and Emery Energy.

  10. Key issues for estimating the impact and cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination strategies

    PubMed Central

    Jit, Mark; Newall, Anthony T.; Beutels, Philippe

    2013-01-01

    Many countries have considered or are considering modifying their seasonal influenza immunization policies. Estimating the impact of such changes requires understanding the existing clinical and economic burden of influenza, as well as the potential impact of different vaccination options. Previous studies suggest that vaccinating clinical risk groups, health care workers, children and the elderly may be cost-effective. However, challenges in such estimation include: (1) potential cases are not usually virologically tested; (2) cases have non-specific symptoms and are rarely reported to surveillance systems; (3) endpoints for influenza proxies (such as influenza-like illness) need to be matched to case definitions for treatment costs, (4) disease burden estimates vary from year to year with strain transmissibility, virulence and prior immunity, (5) methods to estimate productivity losses due to influenza vary, (6) vaccine efficacy estimates from trials differ due to variation in subtype prevalence, vaccine match and case ascertainment, and (7) indirect (herd) protection from vaccination depends on setting-specific variables that are difficult to directly measure. Given the importance of knowing the impact of changes to influenza policy, such complexities need careful treatment using tools such as population-based trial designs, meta-analyses, time-series analyses and transmission dynamic models. PMID:23357859

  11. A cost-effectiveness comparison of existing and Landsat-aided snow water content estimation systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sharp, J. M.; Thomas, R. W.

    1975-01-01

    This study describes how Landsat imagery can be cost-effectively employed to augment an operational hydrologic model. Attention is directed toward the estimation of snow water content, a major predictor variable in the volumetric runoff forecasting model presently used by the California Department of Water Resources. A stratified double sampling scheme is supplemented with qualitative and quantitative analyses of existing operations to develop a comparison between the existing and satellite-aided approaches to snow water content estimation. Results show a decided advantage for the Landsat-aided approach.

  12. Conceptual Design and Cost Estimate of a Subsonic NASA Testbed Vehicle (NTV) for Aeronautics Research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nickol, Craig L.; Frederic, Peter

    2013-01-01

    A conceptual design and cost estimate for a subsonic flight research vehicle designed to support NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project goals is presented. To investigate the technical and economic feasibility of modifying an existing aircraft, a highly modified Boeing 717 was developed for maturation of technologies supporting the three ERA project goals of reduced fuel burn, noise, and emissions. This modified 717 utilizes midfuselage mounted modern high bypass ratio engines in conjunction with engine exhaust shielding structures to provide a low noise testbed. The testbed also integrates a natural laminar flow wing section and active flow control for the vertical tail. An eight year program plan was created to incrementally modify and test the vehicle, enabling the suite of technology benefits to be isolated and quantified. Based on the conceptual design and programmatic plan for this testbed vehicle, a full cost estimate of $526M was developed, representing then-year dollars at a 50% confidence level.

  13. Adaptive UAV Attitude Estimation Employing Unscented Kalman Filter, FOAM and Low-Cost MEMS Sensors

    PubMed Central

    de Marina, Héctor García; Espinosa, Felipe; Santos, Carlos

    2012-01-01

    Navigation employing low cost MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) sensors in Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) is an uprising challenge. One important part of this navigation is the right estimation of the attitude angles. Most of the existent algorithms handle the sensor readings in a fixed way, leading to large errors in different mission stages like take-off aerobatic maneuvers. This paper presents an adaptive method to estimate these angles using off-the-shelf components. This paper introduces an Attitude Heading Reference System (AHRS) based on the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) using the Fast Optimal Attitude Matrix (FOAM) algorithm as the observation model. The performance of the method is assessed through simulations. Moreover, field experiments are presented using a real fixed-wing UAV. The proposed low cost solution, implemented in a microcontroller, shows a satisfactory real time performance. PMID:23012559

  14. Adaptive UAV attitude estimation employing unscented Kalman Filter, FOAM and low-cost MEMS sensors.

    PubMed

    de Marina, Héctor García; Espinosa, Felipe; Santos, Carlos

    2012-01-01

    Navigation employing low cost MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) sensors in Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) is an uprising challenge. One important part of this navigation is the right estimation of the attitude angles. Most of the existent algorithms handle the sensor readings in a fixed way, leading to large errors in different mission stages like take-off aerobatic maneuvers. This paper presents an adaptive method to estimate these angles using off-the-shelf components. This paper introduces an Attitude Heading Reference System (AHRS) based on the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) using the Fast Optimal Attitude Matrix (FOAM) algorithm as the observation model. The performance of the method is assessed through simulations. Moreover, field experiments are presented using a real fixed-wing UAV. The proposed low cost solution, implemented in a microcontroller, shows a satisfactory real time performance.

  15. Software Intensive Systems Data Quality and Estimation Research in Support of Future Defense Cost Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-03-13

    Poker [Cohn 2005] or Wideband Delphi [Boehm 1981]can generally serve this purpose. The key point here is to recognize that estimation of knowledge work...waiting for usage feedback, but it may be worth it. For small agile projects, group consensus techniques such as Planning Poker are best; for larger...Development Adaptability to change Easiest-first; late, costly breakage Small: Planning- poker -type Large: Parametric with IDPD and Requirements Volatility

  16. Quantifying Uncertainty in Early Lifecycle Cost Estimation for DOD Major Defense Acquisition Programs

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-10-31

    Acquisition Programs Cost Estimation Research Team: Bob Ferguson ( SEI - SEMA) Dennis Goldenson PhD ( SEI - SEMA) Jim McCurley ( SEI ...SEMA) Bob Stoddard ( SEI - SEMA) Dave Zubrow PhD ( SEI - SEMA) Julie Cohen ( SEI - ASP) Tim Morrow ( SEI - ASP) Eduardo Miranda PhD (CMU ISR...McCurley Senior Technical Staff Jim McCurley is a Senior Member of the Technical Staff at the Software Engineering Institute ( SEI ). During his 15

  17. Improving the Cost Estimation of Space Systems. Past Lessons and Future Recommendations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-01-01

    Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution Support RAND Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for... make the acquisition of NSS systems more realistic in terms of estimated costs. In turn, the former commander of Air Force Space Command (AFSPC), Gen...the technical assessments should be improved by collecting and making available more relevant data and increasing visibility into contractor’s

  18. The Utility of Handheld Programmable Calculators in Aircraft Life Cycle Cost Estimation.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-09-01

    The benefits of AFIT research can often be expressed by the equivalent value that your agency received by virtue of AFIT performing the research. Can...DOWNGRADING. SCM E[IJLE. If. OISTRIDUTION STATEMENT (of lis ResPwt." Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. 17. OISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (of tihe...CLASPICATION OF THIS PAG(WMhen Doe Sesere Life cycle cost estimation is a high priority issue in systems acquisition and maintenance. Interest begins with the

  19. A Process-Based Cost Estimating Tool for Ship Structural Designs.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1996-05-01

    Yield 80 Steel ( HY80 ) is assigned as three (3) in this column. AL: 1. This column identifies the abbreviation of the structural member of concern (e.g...Favored Cost Estimate Methods 54 3-3 Comparison of Manual Burning Process Factors: Mild Steel 58 3-4 PODAC - Cutting and Welding Process Factors 58 3-5...structural components, scantlings and the principal structural materials such as high strength steel , high yield steel , ordinary steel or combination of

  20. A Hedonic Approach to Estimating Software Cost Using Ordinary Least Squares Regression and Nominal Attribute Variables

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-03-01

    14 T. Capers Jones states that using functional points requires a certain amount of subjectivity that can lead to complications with the...Network, (June 2004). 29 July 2005 http://ssrn.com/abstract=569875 Foss, Tron, Erik Stensrud, Barbara Kitchenham, and Ingunn Myrtveit. “A...Company-Specific Data,” Information and Software Technology, 42:1009-1016 (2000). Jones, T. Capers . Estimating Software Costs. New York: McGraw-Hill

  1. Recovery of metal oxides from fly ash. Volume 2. Engineering data and cost estimates. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Wilder, R.F.; Barrett, P.J.; Henslee, L.W. Jr.

    1984-06-01

    An engineering, cost and financial evaluation study was carried out for a conceptual commercial plant to process fly ash into marketable metal oxides by the direct HCl acid leach process. The proposed plant site was adjacent to the TVA Kingston, Tennessee power plant and was sized to process 1 million tons of ash (dry basis) per year. The capital cost requirements for the HCl direct acid leach (DAL) optimized process plant were estimated to be $244,390,000. Based upon the reported Kingston plant fly ash analysis and extractability, the conceptual commercial plant would annually produce about 158,000 TPY of alumina, 102,000 TPY of ferric oxide, 46,000 TPY of gypsum, 81,000 TPY of alkali sulfate salts, 866,000 TPY of spent fly ash and 1,940,000 kWh of excess cogeneration power. Potential long term average revenues were projected to be $126,400,000 per year which would indicate a commercial project's economics may be quite adequate. Volume 1 of this study report presents the investment and operating cost data, revenue considerations and an evaluation of profitability. Volume 2 presents the engineering data and capital cost estimates and Volume 3 presents the commercial facility design criteria. 16 references, 3 figures, 2 tables.

  2. CPITN: time and cost estimates for periodontal prevention and treatment procedures.

    PubMed

    Dini, E L; Castellanos, R A

    1995-01-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate the necessary time and cost for periodontal prevention and treatment in a working population from sugar and alcohol refineries in Araraquara, SP, Brazil. A stratified sample of 528 employees aged 18-64 from administrative, industrial and agricultural staffs was examined by one examiner, previously trained, according to the community periodontal index of treatment needs (CPITN). The time required for procedures and the cost was extrapolated to the total worker population. The results showed that the estimated time required for periodontal prevention/treatment was 4527 hours. Of this time, 1783 hours were required for oral hygiene instruction, 2531 for scaling, 151 for surgery and 62 for maintenance. The cost would be US $17,655 for hiring a dentist for 8 hours/day to provide oral hygiene instruction, scaling, surgery and maintenance. However, the cost would be US $9,028 for hiring a dentist for 4 hours/day to provide surgery and maintenance and a dental hygienist for 8 hours/day to provide scaling and oral hygiene instruction. Taking into account epidemiologic, technical and economic aspects, the decision relating to manpower should be this second option.

  3. Estimation of the laser cutting operating cost by support vector regression methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jović, Srđan; Radović, Aleksandar; Šarkoćević, Živče; Petković, Dalibor; Alizamir, Meysam

    2016-09-01

    Laser cutting is a popular manufacturing process utilized to cut various types of materials economically. The operating cost is affected by laser power, cutting speed, assist gas pressure, nozzle diameter and focus point position as well as the workpiece material. In this article, the process factors investigated were: laser power, cutting speed, air pressure and focal point position. The aim of this work is to relate the operating cost to the process parameters mentioned above. CO2 laser cutting of stainless steel of medical grade AISI316L has been investigated. The main goal was to analyze the operating cost through the laser power, cutting speed, air pressure, focal point position and material thickness. Since the laser operating cost is a complex, non-linear task, soft computing optimization algorithms can be used. Intelligent soft computing scheme support vector regression (SVR) was implemented. The performance of the proposed estimator was confirmed with the simulation results. The SVR results are then compared with artificial neural network and genetic programing. According to the results, a greater improvement in estimation accuracy can be achieved through the SVR compared to other soft computing methodologies. The new optimization methods benefit from the soft computing capabilities of global optimization and multiobjective optimization rather than choosing a starting point by trial and error and combining multiple criteria into a single criterion.

  4. Estimating increases in outpatient dialysis costs resulting from scientific and technological advancement.

    PubMed

    Ozminkowski, R J; Hassol, A; Firkusny, I; Noether, M; Miles, M A; Newmann, J; Sharda, C; Guterman, S; Schmitz, R

    1995-04-01

    The Medicare program's base payment rate for outpatient dialysis services has never been adjusted for the effects of inflation, productivity changes, or scientific and technological advancement on the costs of treating patients with end-stage renal disease. In recognition of this, Congress asked the Prospective Payment Assessment Commission to annually recommend an adjustment to Medicare's base payment rate to dialysis facilities. One component of this adjustment addresses the cost-increasing effects of technological change--the scientific and technological advances (S&TA) component. The S&TA component is intended to encourage dialysis facilities to adopt technologies that, when applied appropriately, enhance the quality of patient care, even though they may also increase costs. We found the appropriate increase to the composite payment rate for Medicare outpatient dialysis services in fiscal year 1995 to vary from 0.18% to 2.18%. These estimates depend on whether one accounts for the lack of previous adjustments to the composite rate. Mathematically, the S&TA adjustment also depends on whether one considers the likelihood of missing some dialysis sessions because of illness or hospitalization. The S&TA estimates also allow for differences in the incremental costs of technological change that are based on the varying advice of experts in the dialysis industry. The major contributors to the cost of technological change in dialysis services are the use of twin-bag disconnect peritoneal dialysis systems, automated peritoneal dialysis cyclers, and the new generation of hemodialysis machines currently on the market. Factors beyond the control of dialysis facility personnel that influence the cost of patient care should be considered when payment rates are set, and those rates should be updated as market conditions change. The S&TA adjustment is one example of how the composite rate payment system for outpatient dialysis services can be modified to provide appropriate

  5. Electric Power Interruption Cost Estimates for Individual Industries, Sectors, and U.S. Economy

    SciTech Connect

    Balducci, Patrick J.; Roop, Joseph M.; Schienbein, Lawrence A.; DeSteese, John G.; Weimar, Mark R.

    2002-02-27

    During the last 20 years, utilities and researchers have begun to understand the value in the collection and analysis of interruption cost data. The continued investigation of the monetary impact of power outages will facilitate the advancement of the analytical methods used to measure the costs and benefits from the perspective of the energy consumer. More in-depth analysis may be warranted because of the privatization and deregulation of power utilities, price instability in certain regions of the U.S. and the continued evolution of alternative auxiliary power systems.

  6. Cost Estimate for Molybdenum and Tantalum Refractory Metal Alloy Flow Circuit Concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hickman, Robert R.; Martin, James J.; Schmidt, George R.; Godfroy, Thomas J.; Bryhan, A.J.

    2010-01-01

    The Early Flight Fission-Test Facilities (EFF-TF) team at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has been tasked by the Naval Reactors Prime Contract Team (NRPCT) to provide a cost and delivery rough order of magnitude estimate for a refractory metal-based lithium (Li) flow circuit. The design is based on the stainless steel Li flow circuit that is currently being assembled for an NRPCT task underway at the EFF-TF. While geometrically the flow circuit is not representative of a final flight prototype, knowledge has been gained to quantify (time and cost) the materials, manufacturing, fabrication, assembly, and operations to produce a testable configuration. This Technical Memorandum (TM) also identifies the following key issues that need to be addressed by the fabrication process: Alloy selection and forming, cost and availability, welding, bending, machining, assembly, and instrumentation. Several candidate materials were identified by NRPCT including molybdenum (Mo) alloy (Mo-47.5 %Re), tantalum (Ta) alloys (T-111, ASTAR-811C), and niobium (Nb) alloy (Nb-1 %Zr). This TM is focused only on the Mo and Ta alloys, since they are of higher concern to the ongoing effort. The initial estimate to complete a Mo-47%Re system ready for testing is =$9,000k over a period of 30 mo. The initial estimate to complete a T-111 or ASTAR-811C system ready for testing is =$12,000k over a period of 36 mo.

  7. Bayesian regression models for the estimation of net cost of disease using aggregate data.

    PubMed

    Mitsakakis, Nicholas; Tomlinson, George

    2015-01-23

    Estimation of net costs attributed to a disease or other health condition is very important for health economists and policy makers. Skewness and heteroscedasticity are well-known characteristics for cost data, making linear models generally inappropriate and dictating the use of other types of models, such as gamma regression. Additional hurdles emerge when individual level data are not available. In this paper, we consider the latter case were data are only available at the aggregate level, containing means and standard deviations for different strata defined by a number of demographic and clinical factors. We summarize a number of methods that can be used for this estimation, and we propose a Bayesian approach that utilizes the sample stratum specific standard deviations as stochastic. We investigate the performance of two linear mixed models, comparing them with two proposed gamma regression mixed models, to analyze simulated data generated by gamma and log-normal distributions. Our proposed Bayesian approach seems to have significant advantages for net cost estimation when only aggregate data are available. The implemented gamma models do not seem to offer the expected benefits over the linear models; however, further investigation and refinement is needed.

  8. The cost of radiation treatment at an Ontario regional cancer centre.

    PubMed

    Wodinsky, H B; Jenkin, R D

    1987-11-15

    The cost of radiation treatment in 1985 at an Ontario regional cancer centre accruing 2500 new patients annually was examined. The radiation treatment department was equipped with three high-energy treatment machines, a treatment simulator and a treatment planning computer and was appropriately staffed. The total average annual cost of operating one high-energy treatment machine was $668,963. Salaries and employee benefits accounted for 78% of the costs. An average of 5439 radiation treatments were given annually with each treatment machine, at a cost $123 per treatment. The cost of a curative course of radiation treatment (average of 21 treatments) was $2583, and the cost of a palliative course (average of 7 treatments) was $861.

  9. The cost of radiation treatment at an Ontario regional cancer centre.

    PubMed Central

    Wodinsky, H B; Jenkin, R D

    1987-01-01

    The cost of radiation treatment in 1985 at an Ontario regional cancer centre accruing 2500 new patients annually was examined. The radiation treatment department was equipped with three high-energy treatment machines, a treatment simulator and a treatment planning computer and was appropriately staffed. The total average annual cost of operating one high-energy treatment machine was $668,963. Salaries and employee benefits accounted for 78% of the costs. An average of 5439 radiation treatments were given annually with each treatment machine, at a cost $123 per treatment. The cost of a curative course of radiation treatment (average of 21 treatments) was $2583, and the cost of a palliative course (average of 7 treatments) was $861. PMID:3676933

  10. Making appropriate comparisons of estimated and actual costs of reducing SO{sub 2} emissions under Title IV

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, A.E.

    1998-12-31

    A current sentiment within some parts of the environmental policy community is that market-based regulatory approaches such as emissions trading have proven so effective that actual costs will be only a small fraction of what ex ante cost estimation procedures would project. With this line of reasoning, some have dismissed available cost estimates for major proposed new regulations, such as the new PM and ozone NAAQS, as not meaningful for policy decisions. The most commonly used evidence in support of this position is the experience with SO{sub 2} reductions under Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. In Title IV, a market for emissions allowances has been used to achieve reductions in sulfur dioxides (SO{sub 2}) to ameliorate acid rain. It is commonly asserted today that the cost of achieving the SO{sub 2} emissions reductions has been only one-tenth or less of what Title IV was originally expected to cost. This paper demonstrates that, to the contrary, actual costs for SO{sub 2} reductions remain roughly in line with original estimates associated with Title IV. Erroneous conclusions about Title IV`s costs are due to inappropriate comparisons of a variety of different measures that appear to be comparable only because they are all stated in dollars per ton. Program cost estimates include the total costs of a fully-implemented regulatory program. The very low costs of Title IV that are commonly cited today are neither directly reflective of a fully implemented Title IV, (which is still many years away) nor reflective of all the costs already incurred. Further, a careful review of history finds that the initial cost estimates that many cite were never associated with Title IV. Technically speaking, people are comparing the estimated control costs for the most-costly power plant associated with earlier acid rain regulatory proposals with prices from a market that do not directly reflect total costs.

  11. Applying risk adjusted cost-effectiveness (RAC-E) analysis to hospitals: estimating the costs and consequences of variation in clinical practice.

    PubMed

    Karnon, Jonathan; Caffrey, Orla; Pham, Clarabelle; Grieve, Richard; Ben-Tovim, David; Hakendorf, Paul; Crotty, Maria

    2013-06-01

    Cost-effectiveness analysis is well established for pharmaceuticals and medical technologies but not for evaluating variations in clinical practice. This paper describes a novel methodology--risk adjusted cost-effectiveness (RAC-E)--that facilitates the comparative evaluation of applied clinical practice processes. In this application, risk adjustment is undertaken with a multivariate matching algorithm that balances the baseline characteristics of patients attending different settings (e.g., hospitals). Linked, routinely collected data are used to analyse patient-level costs and outcomes over a 2-year period, as well as to extrapolate costs and survival over patient lifetimes. The study reports the relative cost-effectiveness of alternative forms of clinical practice, including a full representation of the statistical uncertainty around the mean estimates. The methodology is illustrated by a case study that evaluates the relative cost-effectiveness of services for patients presenting with acute chest pain across the four main public hospitals in South Australia. The evaluation finds that services provided at two hospitals were dominated, and of the remaining services, the more effective hospital gained life years at a low mean additional cost and had an 80% probability of being the most cost-effective hospital at realistic cost-effectiveness thresholds. Potential determinants of the estimated variation in costs and effects were identified, although more detailed analyses to identify specific areas of variation in clinical practice are required to inform improvements at the less cost-effective institutions.

  12. Robust parametric indirect estimates of the expected cost of a hospital stay with covariates and censored data.

    PubMed

    Locatelli, Isabella; Marazzi, Alfio

    2013-06-30

    We consider the problem of estimating the mean hospital cost of stays of a class of patients (e.g., a diagnosis-related group) as a function of patient characteristics. The statistical analysis is complicated by the asymmetry of the cost distribution, the possibility of censoring on the cost variable, and the occurrence of outliers. These problems have often been treated separately in the literature, and a method offering a joint solution to all of them is still missing. Indirect procedures have been proposed, combining an estimate of the duration distribution with an estimate of the conditional cost for a given duration. We propose a parametric version of this approach, allowing for asymmetry and censoring in the cost distribution and providing a mean cost estimator that is robust in the presence of extreme values. In addition, the new method takes covariate information into account.

  13. Estimating the costs of caring for people with Alzheimer disease in California: 2000-2040.

    PubMed

    Fox, P J; Kohatsu, N; Max, W; Arnsberger, P

    2001-01-01

    The costs of caring for people with Alzheimer disease (AD) in California are estimated using data from a study of the costs of caring for community-resident and institutionalized people with AD, combined will prevalence and population projections. Costs for community-resident patients will increase 83 percent in the period 2000 ($23.4 billion) to 2020 ($42.8 billion), and will grow an additional 59 percent from 2020 to 2040 ($68.1 billion). Costs for AD patients in institutions will increase 84 percent from 2000 ($2.5 billion) to 2020 ($4.6 billion), and will grow an additional 61 percent from 2020 to 2040 ($7.4 billion), assuming the supply of nursing home beds meets projected demand. Total costs of caring for AD patients will nearly triple between 2000 and 2040. The rapid aging of the U.S. population makes more aggressive societal action necessary if the personal and societal burden of Alzheimer's disease is to be reduced in the future.

  14. Parametric CERs (Cost Estimate Relationships) for Replenishment Repair Parts (Selected U.S. Army Helicopters and Combat Vehicles)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-07-31

    Information System (OSMIS). The long-range objective is to develop methods to determine total operating and support (O&S) costs within life-cycle cost...objective was to assess the feasibility of developing cost estimating relationships (CERs) based on data from the Army Operating and Support Management

  15. Advance market commitments for vaccines against neglected diseases: estimating costs and effectiveness.

    PubMed

    Berndt, Ernst R; Glennerster, Rachel; Kremer, Michael R; Lee, Jean; Levine, Ruth; Weizsäcker, Georg; Williams, Heidi

    2007-05-01

    The G8 is considering committing to purchase vaccines against diseases concentrated in low-income countries (if and when desirable vaccines are developed) as a way to spur research and development on vaccines for these diseases. Under such an 'advance market commitment,' one or more sponsors would commit to a minimum price to be paid per person immunized for an eligible product, up to a certain number of individuals immunized. For additional purchases, the price would eventually drop to close to marginal cost. If no suitable product were developed, no payments would be made. We estimate the offer size which would make revenues similar to the revenues realized from investments in typical existing commercial pharmaceutical products, as well as the degree to which various model contracts and assumptions would affect the cost-effectiveness of such a commitment. We make adjustments for lower marketing costs under an advance market commitment and the risk that a developer may have to share the market with subsequent developers. We also show how this second risk could be reduced, and money saved, by introducing a superiority clause to a commitment. Under conservative assumptions, we document that a commitment comparable in value to sales earned by the average of a sample of recently launched commercial products (adjusted for lower marketing costs) would be a highly cost-effective way to address HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. Sensitivity analyses suggest most characteristics of a hypothetical vaccine would have little effect on the cost-effectiveness, but that the duration of protection conferred by a vaccine strongly affects potential cost-effectiveness. Readers can conduct their own sensitivity analyses employing a web-based spreadsheet tool.

  16. Assessing the Economic Cost of Landslide Damage in Low-Relief Regions: Case Study Evidence from the Flemish Ardennes (Belgium)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vranken, L.; Van Turnhout, P.; Van Den Eeckhaut, M.; Vandekerckhove, L.; Vantilt, G.; Poesen, J.

    2012-04-01

    Several regions around the globe are at risk to incur damage from landslides. These landslides cause significant structural and functional damage to public and private buildings and infrastructure. Numerous studies investigated how natural factors and human activities control the (re-)activation of landslides. However, few studies have concentrated on a quantitative estimate of the overall damage caused by landslides at a regional scale. This study therefore starts with a quantitative economic assessment of the direct and indirect damage caused by landslides in the Flemish Ardennes (Belgium), a low-relief region (area=ca. 700 km2) susceptible to landslides. Based on focus interviews as well as on semi-structured interviews with homeowners, civil servants (e.g. from the technical services from the various towns), or with the owners and providers of lifelines such as electricity and sewage, we have quantitatively estimated the direct and indirect damage induced by landsliding and this for a 10 to 30 year period (depending on the type of infrastructure or buildings). Economic damage to public infrastructure and buildings was estimated for the entire region, while for private damage 10 cases with severe to small damage were quantified. For example, in the last 10 year, costs of road repair augmented to 814 560 €. Costs to repair damaged roads that have not yet been repaired, were estimated at 669 318 €. In the past 30 years, costs of measures to prevent road damage augmented to at least 14 872 380 €. More than 90% of this budget for preventive measures was spent 30 years ago, when an important freeway was damaged and had to be repaired. These preventive measures (building a grout wall and improving the drainage system) were effective as no further damage has been reported until present. To repair and prevent damage to waterworks and sewage systems, expenditures amounted to 551 044 € and this for the last 30 years. In the past 10 years, a new railway line

  17. A methodology to identify stranded generation facilities and estimate stranded costs for Louisiana's electric utility industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cope, Robert Frank, III

    1998-12-01

    The electric utility industry in the United States is currently experiencing a new and different type of growing pain. It is the pain of having to restructure itself into a competitive business. Many industry experts are trying to explain how the nation as a whole, as well as individual states, will implement restructuring and handle its numerous "transition problems." One significant transition problem for federal and state regulators rests with determining a utility's stranded costs. Stranded generation facilities are assets which would be uneconomic in a competitive environment or costs for assets whose regulated book value is greater than market value. At issue is the methodology which will be used to estimate stranded costs. The two primary methods are known as "Top-Down" and "Bottom-Up." The "Top-Down" approach simply determines the present value of the losses in revenue as the market price for electricity changes over a period of time into the future. The problem with this approach is that it does not take into account technical issues associated with the generation and wheeling of electricity. The "Bottom-Up" approach computes the present value of specific strandable generation facilities and compares the resulting valuations with their historical costs. It is regarded as a detailed and difficult, but more precise, approach to identifying stranded assets and their associated costs. This dissertation develops a "Bottom-Up" quantitative, optimization-based approach to electric power wheeling within the state of Louisiana. It optimally evaluates all production capabilities and coordinates the movement of bulk power through transmission interconnections of competing companies in and around the state. Sensitivity analysis to this approach is performed by varying seasonal consumer demand, electric power imports, and transmission inter-connection cost parameters. Generation facility economic dispatch and transmission interconnection bulk power transfers, specific

  18. Estimating cost of road traffic injuries in Iran using willingness to pay (WTP) method.

    PubMed

    Ainy, Elaheh; Soori, Hamid; Ganjali, Mojtaba; Le, Henry; Baghfalaki, Taban

    2014-01-01

    We aimed to use the willingness to pay (WTP) method to calculate the cost of traffic injuries in Iran in 2013. We conducted a cross-sectional questionnaire-based study of 846 randomly selected road users. WTP data was collected for four scenarios for vehicle occupants, pedestrians, vehicle drivers, and motorcyclists. Final analysis was carried out using Weibull and maximum likelihood method. Mean WTP was 2,612,050 Iranian rials (IRR). Statistical value of life was estimated according to 20,408 fatalities 402,314,106,073,648 IRR (US$13,410,470,202 based on purchasing power parity at (February 27th, 2014). Injury cost was US$25,637,870,872 (based on 318,802 injured people in 2013, multiple daily traffic volume of 311, and multiple daily payment of 31,030 IRR for 250 working days). The total estimated cost of injury and death cases was 39,048,341,074$. Gross national income of Iran was, US$604,300,000,000 in 2013 and the costs of traffic injuries constituted 6·46% of gross national income. WTP was significantly associated with age, gender, monthly income, daily payment, more payment for time reduction, trip mileage, drivers and occupants from road users. The costs of traffic injuries in Iran in 2013 accounted for 6.64% of gross national income, much higher than the global average. Policymaking and resource allocation to reduce traffic-related death and injury rates have the potential to deliver a huge economic benefit.

  19. Estimating Cost of Road Traffic Injuries in Iran Using Willingness to Pay (WTP) Method

    PubMed Central

    Ainy, Elaheh; Soori, Hamid; Ganjali, Mojtaba; Le, Henry; Baghfalaki, Taban

    2014-01-01

    We aimed to use the willingness to pay (WTP) method to calculate the cost of traffic injuries in Iran in 2013. We conducted a cross-sectional questionnaire-based study of 846 randomly selected road users. WTP data was collected for four scenarios for vehicle occupants, pedestrians, vehicle drivers, and motorcyclists. Final analysis was carried out using Weibull and maximum likelihood method. Mean WTP was 2,612,050 Iranian rials (IRR). Statistical value of life was estimated according to 20,408 fatalities 402,314,106,073,648 IRR (US$13,410,470,202 based on purchasing power parity at (February 27th, 2014). Injury cost was US$25,637,870,872 (based on 318,802 injured people in 2013, multiple daily traffic volume of 311, and multiple daily payment of 31,030 IRR for 250 working days). The total estimated cost of injury and death cases was 39,048,341,074$. Gross national income of Iran was, US$604,300,000,000 in 2013 and the costs of traffic injuries constituted 6·46% of gross national income. WTP was significantly associated with age, gender, monthly income, daily payment, more payment for time reduction, trip mileage, drivers and occupants from road users. The costs of traffic injuries in Iran in 2013 accounted for 6.64% of gross national income, much higher than the global average. Policymaking and resource allocation to reduce traffic-related death and injury rates have the potential to deliver a huge economic benefit. PMID:25438150

  20. Definition and preliminary design of the Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) phase 1. Volume 3: Program cost estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    Cost estimates for phase C/D of the laser atmospheric wind sounder (LAWS) program are presented. This information provides a framework for cost, budget, and program planning estimates for LAWS. Volume 3 is divided into three sections. Section 1 details the approach taken to produce the cost figures, including the assumptions regarding the schedule for phase C/D and the methodology and rationale for costing the various work breakdown structure (WBS) elements. Section 2 shows a breakdown of the cost by WBS element, with the cost divided in non-recurring and recurring expenditures. Note that throughout this volume the cost is given in 1990 dollars, with bottom line totals also expressed in 1988 dollars (1 dollar(88) = 0.93 1 dollar(90)). Section 3 shows a breakdown of the cost by year. The WBS and WBS dictionary are included as an attachment to this report.