1989-12-01
project nor affect significantly the projects econmic efficiency. These effects are described in the Feasibility Report, EIS/EIR and suportin...modifications beca necesary. To insure the econmic efficiency of the project using the accelerated rise rate in NRc Case III, the Regional Project was...is a str econmic candidate. 23 Table 14 RICtOALL P3ECr ECONaMEC FEABILIY WI H SEA LEVEL RISE (1988 Price Level) Oticon 3 Historical NRC Project
China Macroeconomic: Documentation Data Banks. Volume 3. Foreign Trade.
1984-11-15
1983 data from Chlnese "Cmtan, Statistics," Econmic Infomation and Agency, THoE ong Pr ious years from CIA "International Trade Statistics" Load fram...204,097 145,564 515,062 1984 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 6 Sources, see below 19F, 1983 data from Chinese "Customs Statistics," Econmic ...Statistics," EconmIc Information and Agency, F org Previous years fran CIA "Internationl Trade Statistics" Load from rw 12 to row 54 -.96 - A B C D E F G H
The Potential for Soviet Penetration of the Pacific Islands: An Assessment,
1984-12-01
economies also implies diseconornies of 0 scale in both the public and private sectors. Investments in econmic and social infrastructures such as...source) was less to be feared by the Pacific Islands under current circunstances than econmic dcmination (again, whatever the source). Econacnic
1991-03-05
Byzantium following Fatih Mehmet’s conquest of Istanbul in 1453, brought a new era of religious, political, social, econmic and cultural prosperity to the...radical decisions in order to force the liberal- econmic system towards a free market. Generally speaking, Turkey was a traditionally agricultural country
1991-11-29
effort into Leaping The restructuring of the entire econmic system introduction of direct investment, and will strive to includes the restructuring of...enterprises with a diversified economy are transplanting and a blazing of trails for new systems and better able to withstand econmic storms, and that
1984-02-01
PERFORM FLOW, CAPITAL COST, CALL CALCI ENGINEERING AND OPERATING CALL CALC2 CALCULATIONS AND MAINTENANCE REPORTS PERFORM FINANCIAL CALL ECONM FINANCIAL...8217-, " : ’.:. _’t " .- - -,, . , . , . ’,L "- "e " .°,’,/’,,.’" ""./"" " - - , "."-" ". 9 -".3 "’, 9.2.5 Financial Analysis Routines ECONM serves as
Regional economic impacts of Grand Canyon river runners.
Hjerpe, Evan E; Kim, Yeon-Su
2007-10-01
Economic impact analysis (EIA) of outdoor recreation can provide critical social information concerning the utilization of natural resources. Outdoor recreation and other non-consumptive uses of resources are viewed as environmentally friendly alternatives to extractive-type industries. While outdoor recreation can be an appropriate use of resources, it generates both beneficial and adverse socioeconomic impacts on rural communities. The authors used EIA to assess the regional economic impacts of rafting in Grand Canyon National Park. The Grand Canyon region of northern Arizona represents a rural US economy that is highly dependent upon tourism and recreational expenditures. The purpose of this research is twofold. The first is to ascertain the previously unknown regional economic impacts of Grand Canyon river runners. The second purpose is to examine attributes of these economic impacts in terms of regional multipliers, leakage, and types of employment created. Most of the literature on economic impacts of outdoor recreation has focused strictly on the positive economic impacts, failing to illuminate the coinciding adverse and constraining economic impacts. Examining the attributes of economic impacts can highlight deficiencies and constraints that limit the economic benefits of recreation and tourism. Regional expenditure information was obtained by surveying non-commercial boaters and commercial outfitters. The authors used IMPLAN input-output modeling to assess direct, indirect, and induced effects of Grand Canyon river runners. Multipliers were calculated for output, employment, and income. Over 22,000 people rafted on the Colorado River through Grand Canyon National Park in 2001, resulting in an estimated $21,100,000 of regional expenditures to the greater Grand Canyon economy. However, over 50% of all rafting-related expenditures were not captured by the regional economy and many of the jobs created by the rafting industry are lower-wage and seasonal. Policy
Impacts of climate change on mangrove ecosystems: A region by region overview
Ward, Raymond D.; Friess, Daniel A.; Day, Richard H.; MacKenzie, Richard A.
2016-01-01
Inter-related and spatially variable climate change factors including sea level rise, increased storminess, altered precipitation regime and increasing temperature are impacting mangroves at regional scales. This review highlights extreme regional variation in climate change threats and impacts, and how these factors impact the structure of mangrove communities, their biodiversity and geomorphological setting. All these factors interplay to determine spatially variable resiliency to climate change impacts, and because mangroves are varied in type and geographical location, these systems are good models for understanding such interactions at different scales. Sea level rise is likely to influence mangroves in all regions although local impacts are likely to be more varied. Changes in the frequency and intensity of storminess are likely to have a greater impact on N and Central America, Asia, Australia, and East Africa than West Africa and S. America. This review also highlights the numerous geographical knowledge gaps of climate change impacts, with some regions particularly understudied (e.g., Africa and the Middle East). While there has been a recent drive to address these knowledge gaps especially in South America and Asia, further research is required to allow researchers to tease apart the processes that influence both vulnerability and resilience to climate change. A more globally representative view of mangroves would allow us to better understand the importance of mangrove type and landscape setting in determining system resiliency to future climate change.
Regionalizing land use impacts on farmland birds.
Glemnitz, Michael; Zander, Peter; Stachow, Ulrich
2015-06-01
The environmental impacts of land use vary regionally. Differences in geomorphology, climate, landscape structure, and biotope inventories are regarded as the main causes of this variation. We present a methodological approach for identifying regional responses in land use type to large-scale changes and the implications for the provision of habitat for farmland birds. The methodological innovations of this approach are (i) the coupling of impact assessments with economic models, (ii) the linking of cropping techniques at the plot scale with the regional distribution of land use, and (iii) the integration of statistical or monitoring data on recent states. This approach allows for the regional differentiation of farmers' responses to changing external conditions and for matching the ecological impacts of land use changes with regional environmental sensitivities. An exemplary scenario analysis was applied for a case study of an area in Germany, assessing the impacts of increased irrigation and the promotion of energy cropping on farmland birds, evaluated as a core indicator for farmland biodiversity. The potential effects on farmland birds were analyzed based on the intrinsic habitat values of the crops and cropping techniques. The results revealed that the strongest decrease in habitat availability for farmland birds occurred in regions with medium-to-low agricultural yields. As a result of the limited cropping alternatives, the increase in maize production was highest in marginal regions for both examined scenarios. Maize production replaced many crops with good-to-medium habitat suitability for birds. The declines in habitat quality were strongest in regions that are not in focus for conservation efforts for farmland birds.
ClimateImpactsOnline: A web platform for regional climate impacts
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nocke, Thomas
2013-04-01
Climate change is widely known but there is often uncertainty about the specific effects. One of the key tasks is - beyond discussing climate change and its impacts in specialist groups - to present these to a wider audience. In that respect, decision-makers in the public sector as well as directly affected professional groups require to obtain easy-to-understand information. These groups are not made up of specialist scientists. This gives rise to two challenges: (1) the complex information must be presented such that it is commonly understood, and (2) access to the information must be easy. Interested parties do not have time to familiarize themselves over a lengthy period, but rather want to immediately work with the information. Beside providing climate information globally, regional information become of increasing interest for local decision making regarding awareness building and adaptation options. In addition, current web portals mainly focus on climate information, considering climate impacts on different sectors only implicitly. As solution, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and WetterOnline have jointly developed an Internet portal that is easy to use, groups together interesting information about climate impacts and offers it in a directly usable form. This new web portal ClimateImpactsOnline.com provides detailed information, combining multiple sectors for the test case of Germany. For this region, numerous individual studies on climate change have been prepared by various institutions. These studies differ in terms of their aim, region and time period of interest. Thus, the goal of ClimateImpactsOnline.com is to present a synthesized view on regional impacts of global climate change on hydrology, agriculture, forest, energy, tourism and health sector. The climate and impact variables are available on a decadal time resolution for the period from 1901-2100, combining observed data and future projections. Detailed information are presented
2015-04-29
On April 30th, this region of Mercury's surface will have a new crater! Traveling at 3.91 kilometers per second (over 8,700 miles per hour), the MESSENGER spacecraft will collide with Mercury's surface, creating a crater estimated to be 16 meters (52 feet) in diameter. The large, 400-kilometer-diameter (250-mile-diameter), impact basin Shakespeare occupies the bottom left quarter of this image. Shakespeare is filled with smooth plains material, likely due to extensive lava flooding the basin in the past. As of 24 hours before the impact, the current best estimates predict that the spacecraft will strike a ridge slightly to the northeast of Shakespeare. View this image to see more details of the predicted impact site and time. Instrument: Mercury Dual Imaging System (MDIS) and Mercury Laser Altimeter (MLA) Latitude Range: 49°-59° N Longitude Range: 204°-217° E Topography: Exaggerated by a factor of 5.5. Colors: Coded by topography. The tallest regions are colored red and are roughly 3 kilometers (1.9 miles) higher than low-lying areas such as the floors of impact craters, colored blue. Scale: The large crater on the left side of the image is Janacek, with a diameter of 48 kilometers (30 miles) http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA19444
Impacts of wildfire smoke plumes on regional air quality
Background: Recent trends in increased frequency and severity of large fires necessitate an improved understanding of smoke plume impacts on regional-scale air quality and public health. Objective: We examine the impact of fire smoke on regional air quality between 2006 and 2013 ...
Servicing communication satellites in geostationary orbit
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Russell, Paul K.; Price, Kent M.
1990-01-01
The econmic benefits of a LEO space station are quantified by identifying alternative operating scenarios utilizing the space station's transportation facilities and assembly and repair facilities. Particular consideration is given to the analysis of the impact of on-orbit assembly and servicing on a typical communications satellite is analyzed. The results of this study show that on-orbit servicing can increase the internal rate of return by as much as 30 percent.
Impact of wildfires on regional air pollution
We examine the impact of wildfires and agricultural/prescribed burning on regional air pollution and Air Quality Index (AQI) between 2006 and 2013. We define daily regional air pollution using monitoring sites for ozone (n=1595), PM2.5 collected by Federal Reference Method (n=10...
Potential Impacts of Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Winkler, J. A.
2011-12-01
Climate change is projected to have substantial impacts in the Great Lakes region of the United States. One intent of this presentation is to introduce the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments Center (GLISA), a recently-funded NOAA RISA center. The goals and unique organizational structure of GLISA will be described along with core activities that support impact and assessment studies in the region. Additionally, observed trends in temperature, precipitation including lake effect snowfall, and lake temperatures and ice cover will be summarized for the Great Lakes region, and vulnerabilities to, and potential impacts of, climate change will be surveyed for critical natural and human systems. These include forest ecosystems, water resources, traditional and specialized agriculture, and tourism/recreation. Impacts and vulnerabilities unique to the Great Lakes region are emphasized.
Digital Sequences and a Time Reversal-Based Impact Region Imaging and Localization Method
Qiu, Lei; Yuan, Shenfang; Mei, Hanfei; Qian, Weifeng
2013-01-01
To reduce time and cost of damage inspection, on-line impact monitoring of aircraft composite structures is needed. A digital monitor based on an array of piezoelectric transducers (PZTs) is developed to record the impact region of impacts on-line. It is small in size, lightweight and has low power consumption, but there are two problems with the impact alarm region localization method of the digital monitor at the current stage. The first one is that the accuracy rate of the impact alarm region localization is low, especially on complex composite structures. The second problem is that the area of impact alarm region is large when a large scale structure is monitored and the number of PZTs is limited which increases the time and cost of damage inspections. To solve the two problems, an impact alarm region imaging and localization method based on digital sequences and time reversal is proposed. In this method, the frequency band of impact response signals is estimated based on the digital sequences first. Then, characteristic signals of impact response signals are constructed by sinusoidal modulation signals. Finally, the phase synthesis time reversal impact imaging method is adopted to obtain the impact region image. Depending on the image, an error ellipse is generated to give out the final impact alarm region. A validation experiment is implemented on a complex composite wing box of a real aircraft. The validation results show that the accuracy rate of impact alarm region localization is approximately 100%. The area of impact alarm region can be reduced and the number of PZTs needed to cover the same impact monitoring region is reduced by more than a half. PMID:24084123
Regional projection of climate impact indices over the Mediterranean region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Casanueva, Ana; Frías, M.; Dolores; Herrera, Sixto; Bedia, Joaquín; San Martín, Daniel; Gutiérrez, José Manuel; Zaninovic, Ksenija
2014-05-01
Climate Impact Indices (CIIs) are being increasingly used in different socioeconomic sectors to transfer information about climate change impacts and risks to stakeholders. CIIs are typically based on different weather variables such as temperature, wind speed, precipitation or humidity and comprise, in a single index, the relevant meteorological information for the particular impact sector (in this study wildfires and tourism). This dependence on several climate variables poses important limitations to the application of statistical downscaling techniques, since physical consistency among variables is required in most cases to obtain reliable local projections. The present study assesses the suitability of the "direct" downscaling approach, in which the downscaling method is directly applied to the CII. In particular, for illustrative purposes, we consider two popular indices used in the wildfire and tourism sectors, the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and the Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET), respectively. As an example, two case studies are analysed over two representative Mediterranean regions of interest for the EU CLIM-RUN project: continental Spain for the FWI and Croatia for the PET. Results obtained with this "direct" downscaling approach are similar to those found from the application of the statistical downscaling to the individual meteorological drivers prior to the index calculation ("component" downscaling) thus, a wider range of statistical downscaling methods could be used. As an illustration, future changes in both indices are projected by applying two direct statistical downscaling methods, analogs and linear regression, to the ECHAM5 model. Larger differences were found between the two direct statistical downscaling approaches than between the direct and the component approaches with a single downscaling method. While these examples focus on particular indices and Mediterranean regions of interest for CLIM-RUN stakeholders, the same study
Earth Impact Effects Program: Estimating the Regional Environmental Consequences of Impacts On Earth
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Collins, G. S.; Melosh, H. J.; Marcus, R. A.
2009-12-01
The Earth Impact Effects Program (www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects) is a popular web-based calculator for estimating the regional environmental consequences of a comet or asteroid impact on Earth. It is widely used, both by inquisitive members of the public as an educational device and by scientists as a simple research tool. It applies a variety of scaling laws, based on theory, nuclear explosion test data, observations from terrestrial and extraterrestrial craters and the results of small-scale impact experiments and numerical modelling, to quantify the principal hazards that might affect the people, buildings and landscape in the vicinity of an impact. The program requires six inputs: impactor diameter, impactor density, impact velocity prior to atmospheric entry, impact angle, and the target type (sedimentary rock, crystalline rock, or a water layer above rock), as well as the distance from the impact at which the environmental effects are to be calculated. The program includes simple algorithms for estimating the fate of the impactor during atmospheric traverse, the thermal radiation emitted by the impact plume (fireball) and the intensity of seismic shaking. The program also approximates various dimensions of the impact crater and ejecta deposit, as well as estimating the severity of the air blast in both crater-forming and airburst impacts. We illustrate the strengths and limitations of the program by comparing its predictions (where possible) against known impacts, such as Carancas, Peru (2007); Tunguska, Siberia (1908); Barringer (Meteor) crater, Arizona (ca 49 ka). These tests demonstrate that, while adequate for large impactors, the simple approximation of atmospheric entry in the original program does not properly account for the disruption and dispersal of small impactors as they traverse Earth's atmosphere. We describe recent improvements to the calculator to better describe atmospheric entry of small meteors; the consequences of oceanic impacts; and
Distal Ejecta from Lunar Impacts: Extensive Regions of Rocky Deposits
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bandfield, Joshua L.; Cahill, Joshua T. S.; Carter, Lynn M.; Neish, Catherine D.; Patterson, G. Wesley; Williams, Jean-Pierre; Paige, David A.
2016-01-01
Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Diviner Radiometer, Mini-RF, and LRO Camera data were used to identify and characterize rocky lunar deposits that appear well separated from any potential source crater. Two regions are described: 1) A approximate 18,000 sq km area with elevated rock abundance and extensive melt ponds and veneers near the antipode of Tycho crater (167.5 deg E, 42.5 deg N). This region has been identified previously, using radar and aging data. 2) A much larger and more diffuse region, covering approximately 730,000 sq km, centered near 310 deg E, 35 deg S, containing elevated rock abundance and numerous granular flow deposits on crater walls. The rock distributions in both regions favor certain slope azimuths over others, indicating a directional component to the formation of these deposits. The spatial distribution of rocks is consistent with the arrival of ejecta from the west and northwest at low angles (approximately 10-30 deg) above the horizon in both regions. The derived age and slope orientations of the deposits indicate that the deposits likely originated as ejecta from the Tycho impact event. Despite their similar origin, the deposits in the two regions show significant differences in the datasets. The Tycho crater antipode deposit covers a smaller area, but the deposits are pervasive and appear to be dominated by impact melts. By contrast, the nearside deposits cover a much larger area and numerous granular flows were triggered. However, the features in this region are less prominent with no evidence for the presence of impact melts. The two regions appear to be surface expressions of a distant impact event that can modify surfaces across wide regions, resulting in a variety of surface morphologies. The Tycho impact event may only be the most recent manifestation of these processes, which likely have played a role in the development of the regolith throughout lunar history
Impact of Geological Changes on Regional and Global Economies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tatiana, Skufina; Peter, Skuf'in; Vera, Samarina; Taisiya, Shatalova; Baranov, Sergey
2017-04-01
Periods of geological changes such as super continent cycle (300-500 million years), Wilson's cycles (300-900 million years), magmatic-tectonic cycle (150-200 million years), and cycles with smaller periods (22, 100, 1000 years) lead to a basic contradiction preventing forming methodology of the study of impact of geological changes on the global and regional economies. The reason of this contradiction is the differences of theoretical and methodological aspects of the Earth science and economics such as different time scales and accuracy of geological changes. At the present the geological models cannot provide accurate estimation of time and place where geological changes (strong earthquakes, volcanos) are expected. Places of feature (not next) catastrophic events are the only thing we have known. Thus, it is impossible to use the periodicity to estimate both geological changes and their consequences. Taking into accounts these factors we suggested a collection of concepts for estimating impact of possible geological changes on regional and global economies. We illustrated our approach by example of estimating impact of Tohoku earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 on regional and global economies. Based on this example we concluded that globalization processes increase an impact of geological changes on regional and global levels. The research is supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Projects No. 16-06-00056, 16-32-00019, 16-05-00263A).
Regional hydro-climatic impacts of contemporary Amazonian deforestation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Khanna, Jaya
More than 17% of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared in the past three decades triggering important climatological and societal impacts. This thesis is devoted to identifying and explaining the regional hydroclimatic impacts of this change employing multidecadal satellite observations and numerical simulations providing an integrated perspective on this topic. The climatological nature of this study motivated the implementation and application of a cloud detection technique to a new geostationary satellite dataset. The resulting sub daily, high spatial resolution, multidecadal time series facilitated the detection of trends and variability in deforestation triggered cloud cover changes. The analysis was complemented by satellite precipitation, reanalysis and ground based datasets and attribution with the variable resolution Ocean-Land-Atmosphere-Model. Contemporary Amazonian deforestation affects spatial scales of hundreds of kilometers. But, unlike the well-studied impacts of a few kilometers scale deforestation, the climatic response to contemporary, large scale deforestation is neither well observed nor well understood. Employing satellite datasets, this thesis shows a transition in the regional hydroclimate accompanying increasing scales of deforestation, with downwind deforested regions receiving 25% more and upwind deforested regions receiving 25% less precipitation from the deforested area mean. Simulations robustly reproduce these shifts when forced with increasing deforestation alone, suggesting a negligible role of large-scale decadal climate variability in causing the shifts. Furthermore, deforestation-induced surface roughness variations are found necessary to reproduce the observed spatial patterns in recent times illustrating the strong scale-sensitivity of the climatic response to Amazonian deforestation. This phenomenon, inconsequential during the wet season, is found to substantially affect the regional hydroclimate in the local dry and parts of
How global extinctions impact regional biodiversity in mammals.
Huang, Shan; Davies, T Jonathan; Gittleman, John L
2012-04-23
Phylogenetic diversity (PD) represents the evolutionary history of a species assemblage and is a valuable measure of biodiversity because it captures not only species richness but potentially also genetic and functional diversity. Preserving PD could be critical for maintaining the functional integrity of the world's ecosystems, and species extinction will have a large impact on ecosystems in areas where the ecosystem cost per species extinction is high. Here, we show that impacts from global extinctions are linked to spatial location. Using a phylogeny of all mammals, we compare regional losses of PD against a model of random extinction. At regional scales, losses differ dramatically: several biodiversity hotspots in southern Asia and Amazonia will lose an unexpectedly large proportion of PD. Global analyses may therefore underestimate the impacts of extinction on ecosystem processes and function because they occur at finer spatial scales within the context of natural biogeography.
Cost analysis of impacts of climate change on regional air quality.
Liao, Kuo-Jen; Tagaris, Efthimios; Russell, Armistead G; Amar, Praveen; He, Shan; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Woo, Jung-Hun
2010-02-01
Climate change has been predicted to adversely impact regional air quality with resulting health effects. Here a regional air quality model and a technology analysis tool are used to assess the additional emission reductions required and associated costs to offset impacts of climate change on air quality. Analysis is done for six regions and five major cities in the continental United States. Future climate is taken from a global climate model simulation for 2049-2051 using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario, and emission inventories are the same as current ones to assess impacts of climate change alone on air quality and control expenses. On the basis of the IPCC A1B emission scenario and current control technologies, least-cost sets of emission reductions for simultaneously offsetting impacts of climate change on regionally averaged 4th highest daily maximum 8-hr average ozone and yearly averaged PM2.5 (particulate matter [PM] with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 microm) for the six regions examined are predicted to range from $36 million (1999$) yr(-1) in the Southeast to $5.5 billion yr(-1) in the Northeast. However, control costs to offset climate-related pollutant increases in urban areas can be greater than the regional costs because of the locally exacerbated ozone levels. An annual cost of $4.1 billion is required for offsetting climate-induced air quality impairment in 2049-2051 in the five cities alone. Overall, an annual cost of $9.3 billion is estimated for offsetting climate change impacts on air quality for the six regions and five cities examined. Much of the additional expense is to reduce increased levels of ozone. Additional control costs for offsetting the impacts everywhere in the United States could be larger than the estimates in this study. This study shows that additional emission controls and associated costs for offsetting climate impacts could significantly increase currently estimated
Evaluating the Regional Impact of Aircraft Emissions on Climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, J.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Khodayari, A.
2017-12-01
Unlike other transportation sectors where pollutant emissions usually occur only near the Earth's surface, aviation emissions happen primarily at altitudes of 8-12 km above the surface, impacting the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere (UTLS). At these altitudes, the pollutants can contribute significantly to greenhouse gas (GHGs) concentration and to the formation of secondary aerosols, which can have an impact on climate change. This study examines the regional effects on climate forcing resulting from aviation emissions. Most previous studies have focused on aviation effects on climate using globally-averaged metric values, which do not give information about the spatial variability of the effects. While aviation emissions have significant spatial variability in the sign and magnitude of response, the strength of regional effects is hidden due to the global averaging of climate change effects. In this study, the chemistry-climate Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-chem5) is used in analyses to examine the regional climate effects based on 4 different latitude bands (90oS-28oS, 28oS-28oN, 28oN-60oN, 60oN-90oN) and 3 regions (contiguous United States, Europe and East Asia). The most regionally important aviation emissions are short-lived species, such as black carbon (BC) and sulfates, emitted from aircraft directly, and O3-short induced by NOx emission indirectly. The regionality of these short-lived impacts are explored and compared to the globally-averaged effects. The results indicate that BC and sulfates have more regionality than O3. The radiative forcings for short-lived agents over the United States, Europe and East Asia are around 2-4 times of their corresponding global values. The results also suggest that the climate forcings will be the most underestimated over the United States when using globally-averaged values without considering regional heterogeneity.
Impact effects and regional tectonic insights: Backstripping the Chesapeake Bay impact structure
Hayden, T.; Kominz, M.; Powars, D.S.; Edwards, L.E.; Miller, K.G.; Browning, J.V.; Kulpecz, A.A.
2008-01-01
The Chesapeake Bay impact structure is a ca. 35.4 Ma crater located on the eastern seaboard of North America. Deposition returned to normal shortly after impact, resulting in a unique record of both impact-related and subsequent passive margin sedimentation. We use backstripping to show that the impact strongly affected sedimentation for 7 m.y. through impact-derived crustal-scale tectonics, dominated by the effects of sediment compaction and the introduction and subsequent removal of a negative thermal anomaly instead of the expected positive thermal anomaly. After this, the area was dominated by passive margin thermal subsidence overprinted by periods of regional-scale vertical tectonic events, on the order of tens of meters. Loading due to prograding sediment bodies may have generated these events. ?? 2008 The Geological Society of America.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Maksimowicz, M.; Masarik, M. T.; Brandt, J.; Flores, A. N.
2017-12-01
Land use/land cover (LULC) change directly impacts the partitioning of surface mass and energy fluxes. Regional-scale weather and climate are potentially altered by LULC if the resultant changes in partitioning of surface energy fluxes are significant enough to induce changes in the evolution of the planetary boundary layer and its interaction with the atmosphere above. Dynamics of land use, particularly those related to the social dimensions of the Earth System, are often simplified or not represented in regional land-atmosphere models or Earth System Models. This study explores the role of LULC change on a regional hydroclimate system, focusing on potential hydroclimate changes arising from timber harvesting due to a land grab boom in Mozambique. We also focus more narrowly at quantifying regional impacts on Gorongosa National Park, a nationally important economic and biodiversity resource in southeastern Africa. After nationalizing all land in 1975 after Mozambique gained independence, complex social processes, including an extended low intensity conflict civil war and economic hardships, led to an escalation of land use rights grants to foreign governments. Between 2004 and 2009, large tracts of land were requested for timber. Here we use existing tree cover loss datasets to more accurately represent land cover within a regional weather model. LULC in a region encompassing Gorongosa is updated at three instances between 2001 and 2014 using a tree cover loss dataset. We use these derived LULC datasets to inform lower boundary conditions in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. To quantify potential hydrometeorological changes arising from land use change, we performed a factorial-like experiment by mixing input LULC maps and atmospheric forcing data from before, during, and after the land grab. Results suggest that the land grab has impacted microclimate parameters in a significant way via direct and indirect impacts on land-atmosphere interactions
Transboundary impacts on regional ground water modeling in Texas
Rainwater, K.; Stovall, J.; Frailey, S.; Urban, L.
2005-01-01
Recent legislation required regional grassroots water resources planning across the entire state of Texas. The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB), the state's primary water resource planning agency, divided the state into 16 planning regions. Each planning group developed plans to manage both ground water and surface water sources and to meet future demands of various combinations of domestic, agricultural, municipal, and industrial water consumers. This presentation describes the challenges in developing a ground water model for the Llano Estacado Regional Water Planning Group (LERWPG), whose region includes 21 counties in the Southern High Plains of Texas. While surface water is supplied to several cities in this region, the vast majority of the regional water use comes from the High Plains aquifer system, often locally referred to as the Ogallala Aquifer. Over 95% of the ground water demand is for irrigated agriculture. The LERWPG had to predict the impact of future TWDB-projected water demands, as provided by the TWDB, on the aquifer for the period 2000 to 2050. If detrimental impacts were noted, alternative management strategies must be proposed. While much effort was spent on evaluating the current status of the ground water reserves, an appropriate numerical model of the aquifer system was necessary to demonstrate future impacts of the predicted withdrawals as well as the effects of the alternative strategies. The modeling effort was completed in the summer of 2000. This presentation concentrates on the political, scientific, and nontechnical issues in this planning process that complicated the modeling effort. Uncertainties in data, most significantly in distribution and intensity of recharge and withdrawals, significantly impacted the calibration and predictive modeling efforts. Four predictive scenarios, including baseline projections, recurrence of the drought of record, precipitation enhancement, and reduced irrigation demand, were simulated to
Regional Development Impacts Multi-Regional - Multi-Industry Model (MRMI) Users Manual,
1982-09-01
indicators, described in Chapter 2, are estimated as well. Finally, MRMI is flexible, as it can incorporate alternative macroeconomic , national inter...national and regional economic contexts and data sources for estimating macroeconomic and direct impacts data. Considerations for ensuring consistency...Chapter 4 is devoted to model execution and the interpretation of its output. As MRMI forecasts are based upon macroeconomic , national inter-industry
Climate change impacts utilizing regional models for agriculture, hydrology and natural ecosystems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kafatos, M.; Asrar, G. R.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Medvigy, D.; Prasad, A. K.; Smith, E.; Stack, D. H.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.
2012-12-01
Climate change impacts the entire Earth but with crucial and often catastrophic impacts at local and regional levels. Extreme phenomena such as fires, dust storms, droughts and other natural hazards present immediate risks and challenges. Such phenomena will become more extreme as climate change and anthropogenic activities accelerate in the future. We describe a major project funded by NIFA (Grant # 2011-67004-30224), under the joint NSF-DOE-USDA Earth System Models (EaSM) program, to investigate the impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural and natural (i.e. rangeland) ecosystems in the Southwest USA using a combination of historical and present observations together with climate, and ecosystem models, both in hind-cast and forecast modes. The applicability of the methodology to other regions is relevant (for similar geographic regions as well as other parts of the world with different agriculture and ecosystems) and should advance the state of knowledge for regional impacts of climate change. A combination of multi-model global climate projections from the decadal predictability simulations, to downscale dynamically these projections using three regional climate models, combined with remote sensing MODIS and other data, in order to obtain high-resolution climate data that can be used with hydrological and ecosystem models for impacts analysis, is described in this presentation. Such analysis is needed to assess the future risks and potential impacts of projected changes on these natural and managed ecosystems. The results from our analysis can be used by scientists to assist extended communities to determine agricultural coping strategies, and is, therefore, of interest to wide communities of stakeholders. In future work we will be including surface hydrologic modeling and water resources, extend modeling to higher resolutions and include significantly more crops and geographical regions with different weather and climate conditions
The Regional Impact of Universities in Finland.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Antikainen, Ari
1981-01-01
The impact of a decentralized system of higher education on the regional development of Finland is discussed. Higher education and scientific research are seen as part of the social infrastracture that a change from agrarian to industrial or post-industrial society presupposes in the world of scientific-technological revolution. (Author/MLW)
Pluto's elongated dark regions formed by the Charon-forming giant impact
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Genda, Hidenori; Sekine, Yusuhito; Kamata, Shunichi; Funatsu, Taro
2017-04-01
The New Horizons spacecraft has found elongated dark areas in the equatorial region of Pluto, which were informally called "the Whale" or Cthulhu Region (Stern et al. 2015). Here we examine the possibility that the dark areas on Pluto were formed by thermal alterations and polymerization of interstellar volatiles caused by a Charon-forming giant impact. Pluto is one of the largest Kuiper belt objects, which is highly likely to contain various interstellar volatiles, including aldehyde and ammonia. The previous study (Cordy et al. 2011) shows that these interstellar volatiles are thermally polymerized in solutions at high temperatures, forming complex insoluble organic solids. Given the satellite-to-planet mass ratio, the Pluto-Charon system is suggested to be of a giant impact origin (Canup 2005). Impact-induced heating on Pluto could have converted these volatile into complex organic matter in solution near the surface, which may explain the presence of dark areas in the equatorial region of Pluto. Here, we produce complex organic matter for various temperatures by thermal polymerization of formaldehyde and ammonia in solutions. By measuring the UV-VIS absorption spectra of the produced organic matter, we found that the color of the solution changes to be dark if the temerature is above 50 degree C for months or more. This duration corresponds to the cooling timescale of a water pond with 500-km thickness. By using SPH code (Genda et al. 2015), we carried out many simulations of a giant impact, and we found that a molten hot pond with > 500-km thickness is formed around the equatorial region of Pluto by a Charon-forming giant impact, if the water/rock mixing mass ratio is less than 1 or if the pre-impact interior temperature is 150 K. Both the dark equatorial region and a Charon-sized moon are formed when the pre-impact Pluto is undifferentiated. To keep a rock-rich Pluto undifferentiated at time of the giant impact, Pluto may have been formed >100 Myrs after CAIs
Regional flood impact assessment for Kiel and Eckernförde, Germany
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shustikova, Iuliia; Viavattene, Christophe; Seiß, Guntram
2017-04-01
It is well-observed that extreme flood events bring considerable destruction to coastal communities. The estimates of damage increases when direct and indirect losses are both considered in the assessment. This study applied the INtegrated DisRuption Assessment (INDRA) model which is designed to estimate and compare not only tangible but also intangible losses such as risk to life, recovery mechanisms and household displacement. Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) was performed in order to compare hotspots of high flood risk on the regional scale and detect which impact indicators influence results the most. INDRA allowed assessing the following impact indicators: direct damages to buildings and roads, transport disruption, risk to life and financial recovery mechanisms of private households and businesses. The focus was on two hotspots of flood risk, where direct and indirect impacts from 200 years flood were assessed and analyzed in terms of relative importance to the region. The region here was defined as municipalities located on the Baltic Sea coast within the Schleswig-Holstein state, Germany. The hotspots are the towns of Kiel and Eckernförde. They are urban areas with a high concentration of people and assets, which previously experienced extreme flood events. From the performed investigation it was found out that modeled flood differently impacts Kiel and Eckernförde. The results produced by MCA show that the scores of direct and indirect damage are slightly higher in Eckernförde than in Kiel. Transport disruption is a compelling element in the performed regional impact assessment and demonstrated immense weight. Extreme events may pose significant direct and indirect impacts on the coastal roads, obstructing not only the access to important landmarks such as hospitals, train stations, harbors, etc. but also to contiguous municipalities. Yet, the analysis showed that other impact indicators are rather of local importance and would not cause vast damage on a
Evaluation of GCMs in the context of regional predictive climate impact studies.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kokorev, Vasily; Anisimov, Oleg
2016-04-01
Significant improvements in the structure, complexity, and general performance of earth system models (ESMs) have been made in the recent decade. Despite these efforts, the range of uncertainty in predicting regional climate impacts remains large. The problem is two-fold. Firstly, there is an intrinsic conflict between the local and regional scales of climate impacts and adaptation strategies, on one hand, and larger scales, at which ESMs demonstrate better performance, on the other. Secondly, there is a growing understanding that majority of the impacts involve thresholds, and are thus driven by extreme climate events, whereas accent in climate projections is conventionally made on gradual changes in means. In this study we assess the uncertainty in projecting extreme climatic events within a region-specific and process-oriented context by examining the skills and ranking of ESMs. We developed a synthetic regionalization of Northern Eurasia that accounts for the spatial features of modern climatic changes and major environmental and socio-economical impacts. Elements of such fragmentation could be considered as natural focus regions that bridge the gap between the spatial scales adopted in climate-impacts studies and patterns of climate change simulated by ESMs. In each focus region we selected several target meteorological variables that govern the key regional impacts, and examined the ability of the models to replicate their seasonal and annual means and trends by testing them against observations. We performed a similar evaluation with regard to extremes and statistics of the target variables. And lastly, we used the results of these analyses to select sets of models that demonstrate the best performance at selected focus regions with regard to selected sets of target meteorological parameters. Ultimately, we ranked the models according to their skills, identified top-end models that "better than average" reproduce the behavior of climatic parameters, and
The Economic Impact of Domestic Military Installations on Regional Economies.
1979-12-01
to implement the National Environmental Protection Act. The research examined the theoretical basis for impact determination especially economic base...installation on a regional economw. Such impacts ore reuirtd to be estimated to implement the National Environmental Protection Act. The research examined the...Published in the Second Proliminarw Draft Environmental Impact Statement Part I Fort Ord CREF 21]. E. ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY The background of interest in
CLIMATE IMPACTS ON NUTRIENT FLUXES IN STREAM FLOW IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
As part of a national assessment process, researchers of the Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA) are studying the impacts of climate variation and change on the natural and social systems of the Mid-Atlantic Region. This poster presents research investigating climate impacts ...
Producing custom regional climate data sets for impact assessment with xarray
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Simcock, J. G.; Delgado, M.; Greenstone, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E.; Carleton, T.; Hultgren, A.; Jina, A.; Nath, I.; Rising, J. A.; Rode, A.; Yuan, J.; Chong, T.; Dobbels, G.; Hussain, A.; Song, Y.; Wang, J.; Mohan, S.; Larsen, K.; Houser, T.
2017-12-01
Research in the field of climate impact assessment and valuation frequently requires the pairing of economic observations with historical or projected weather variables. Impact assessments with large geographic scope or spatially aggregated data frequently require climate variables to be prepared for use with administrative/political regions, economic districts such as utility service areas, physical regions such as watersheds, or other larger, non-gridded shapes. Approaches to preparing such data in the literature vary from methods developed out of convenience to more complex measures intended to account for spatial heterogeneity. But more sophisticated methods are difficult to implement, from both a theoretical and a technical standpoint. We present a new python package designed to assist researchers in the preparation of historical and projected climate data for arbitrary spatial definitions. Users specify transformations by providing (a) sets of regions in the form of shapefiles, (b) gridded data to be transformed, and, optionally, (c) gridded weights to use in the transformation. By default, aggregation to regions is conducted such that the resulting regional data draws from each grid cell according to the cell's share of total region area. However, researchers can provide alternative weighting schemes, such that the regional data is weighted by, for example, the population or planted agricultural area within each cell. An advantage of this method is that it enables easy preparation of nonlinear transformations of the climate data before aggregation to regions, allowing aggregated variables to more accurately capture the spatial heterogeneity within a region in the transformed data. At this session, we will allow attendees to view transformed climate projections, examining the effect of various weighting schemes and nonlinear transformations on aggregate regional values, highlighting the implications for climate impact assessment work.
Regional impacts of technical change: the case of structural particleboard in the United States.
Zhi Xu; David N. Bengston; Hans M. Gregersen; Allen L. Lundgren
1992-01-01
Analyzes the regional impacts of research benefits in the United States due to the introduction of structural particleboard. The distribution of consumer benefits, producer benefits, direct employment impacts, and changes in wood requirements are analyzed for the four census regions. The distribution of benefits is found to differ widely between regions, indicating...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rosenthal, J. E.; Knowlton, K. M.; Kinney, P. L.
2002-12-01
There is an imminent need to downscale the global climate models used by international consortiums like the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to predict the future regional impacts of climate change. To meet this need, a "place-based" climate model that makes specific regional projections about future environmental conditions local inhabitants could face is being created by the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, in collaboration with other researchers and universities, for New York City and the 31 surrounding counties. This presentation describes the design and initial results of this modeling study, aimed at simulating the effects of global climate change and regional land use change on climate and air quality over the northeastern United States in order to project the associated public health impacts in the region. Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone and fine particles are significant current public health stressors in the New York metropolitan area. The New York Climate and Health Project is linking human dimension and natural sciences models to assess the potential for future public health impacts from heat stress and air quality, and yield improved tools for assessing climate change impacts. The model will be applied to the NY metropolitan east coast region. The following questions will be addressed: 1. What changes in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events are likely to occur over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and land cover (LU/LC) and climate change in the region? 2. How might the frequency and severity of episodic concentrations of ozone (O3) and airborne particulate matter smaller than 2.5 æm in diameter (PM2.5) change over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and climate change in the metropolitan region? 3. What is the range of possible human health impacts of these changes in the region? 4. How might projected future human
Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Gulf of Mexico Region (Fact Sheet)
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Flores, F.; Keyser, D.; Tegen, S.
2014-01-01
Offshore wind is a clean, renewable source of energy and can be an economic driver in the United States. To better understand the employment opportunities and other potential regional economic impacts from offshore wind development, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded research that focuses on four regions of the country. The studies use multiple scenarios with various local job and domestic manufacturing content assumptions. Each regional study uses the new offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This fact sheet summarizes the potential economic impacts for the Gulf of Mexicomore » region.« less
Sustainable regional development and natural hazard impacts
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Petrova, Elena; Svetlosanov, Vladimir; Kudin, Valery
2016-04-01
During the last decades, natural hazard impacts on social and economic development in many countries were increasing due to the expansion of human activities into the areas prone to natural risks as well as to increasing in number and severity of natural hazardous events caused by climate changes and other natural phenomena. The escalation of severe disasters (such as Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan 2011) triggered by natural hazards and related natural-technological and environmental events is increasingly threatening sustainable development at different levels from regional to global scale. In our study, we develop a model of ecological, economic and social sustainable development for the European part of Russia and the Republic of Belarus. The model consists of six blocks including 1) population, 2) environment, 3) mineral resources, 4) geographic space, 5) investments, and 6) food production and import. These blocks were created based on the analysis of the main processes at the regional level; all the blocks are closely interrelated between each other. Reaching the limit values of block parameters corresponds to a sharp deterioration of the system; as a result, the system can lose its stability. Aggravation of natural and natural-technological risk impacts on each block and should be taken into account in the model of regional development. Natural hazards can cause both strong influences and small but permanent perturbations. In both cases, a system can become unstable. The criterion for sustainable development is proposed. The Russian Foundation for Humanities and Belorussian Republican Foundation for Fundamental Research supported the study (project 15-22-01008).
OVERVIEW OF THE CLIMATE IMPACT ON REGIONAL AIR QUALITY (CIRAQ) PROJECT
The Climate Impacts on Regional Air Quality (CIRAQ) project will develop model-estimated impacts of global climate changes on ozone and particulate matter (PM) in direct support of the USEPA Global Change Research Program's (GCRP) national air quality assessment. EPA's urban/reg...
Apollo 14 Impact Glasses and Clementine Data: Implications for Regional Geology
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zellner, N. E. B.; Spudis, P. D.; Delano, J. W.; Whittet, D. C. B.
2002-01-01
Clementine color image data and analyses of 778 lunar impact glasses have been used together to suggest that the highlands of the Fra Mauro region consist of a KREEP-rich regolith overlying a feldspathic terrain. Low-KREEP impact glasses may possess a memory of impacts prior to 3.9 Ga ago. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.
Challenges of International Programs in Commercial Wireless Power Trasmission
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Dickinson, Richard M.
1993-01-01
The proposition is offered that only by forming international alliances will econmically viable commercial wireless poer transmission (WPT) result. Radio emissions from commercial WPT will likely extend beyond the borders of a single nation.
Impact of wildfires on regional air pollution | Science Inventory ...
We examine the impact of wildfires and agricultural/prescribed burning on regional air pollution and Air Quality Index (AQI) between 2006 and 2013. We define daily regional air pollution using monitoring sites for ozone (n=1595), PM2.5 collected by Federal Reference Method (n=1058), and constituents of PM2.5 from the Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environment (IMPROVE) network (n=264) and use satellite image analysis from the NOAA Hazard Mapping System (HMS) to determine days on which visible smoke plumes are detected in the vertical column of the monitoring site. To examine the impact of smoke from these fires on regional air pollution we use a two stage approach, accounting for within site (1st stage) and between site (2nd stage) variations. At the first stage we estimate a monitor-specific plume day effect describing the relative change in pollutant concentrations on the days impacted by smoke plume while accounting for confounding effects of season and temperature_. At the second stage we combine monitor-specific plume day effects with a Bayesian hierarchical model and estimate a pooled nationally-averaged effect. HMS visible smoke plumes were detected on 6% of ozone, 8% of PM2.5 and 6% of IMPROVE network monitoring days. Our preliminary results indicate that the long range transport of air pollutants from wildfires and prescribed burns increase ozone concentration by 11% and PM2.5 mass by 34%. On all of the days where monitoring sites were AQI
Regional Risk Assessment for climate change impacts on coastal aquifers.
Iyalomhe, F; Rizzi, J; Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A
2015-12-15
Coastal aquifers have been identified as particularly vulnerable to impacts on water quantity and quality due to the high density of socio-economic activities and human assets in coastal regions and to the projected rising sea levels, contributing to the process of saltwater intrusion. This paper proposes a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrated with a chain of numerical models to evaluate potential climate change-related impacts on coastal aquifers and linked natural and human systems (i.e., wells, river, agricultural areas, lakes, forests and semi-natural environments). The RRA methodology employs Multi Criteria Decision Analysis methods and Geographic Information Systems functionalities to integrate heterogeneous spatial data on hazard, susceptibility and risk for saltwater intrusion and groundwater level variation. The proposed approach was applied on the Esino River basin (Italy) using future climate hazard scenarios based on a chain of climate, hydrological, hydraulic and groundwater system models running at different spatial scales. Models were forced with the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the period 2071-2100 over four seasons (i.e., winter, spring, summer and autumn). Results indicate that in future seasons, climate change will cause few impacts on the lower Esino River valley. Groundwater level decrease will have limited effects: agricultural areas, forests and semi-natural environments will be at risk only in a region close to the coastline which covers less than 5% of the total surface of the considered receptors; less than 3.5% of the wells will be exposed in the worst scenario. Saltwater intrusion impact in future scenarios will be restricted to a narrow region close to the coastline (only few hundred meters), and thus it is expected to have very limited effects on the Esino coastal aquifer with no consequences on the considered natural and human systems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Evaluating an impact origin for Mercury's high-magnesium region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Frank, Elizabeth A.; Potter, Ross W. K.; Abramov, Oleg; James, Peter B.; Klima, Rachel L.; Mojzsis, Stephen J.; Nittler, Larry R.
2017-03-01
During its four years in orbit around Mercury, the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft's X-ray Spectrometer revealed a large geochemical terrane in the northern hemisphere that hosts the highest Mg/Si, S/Si, Ca/Si, and Fe/Si and lowest Al/Si ratios on the planet. Correlations with low topography, thin crust, and a sharp northern topographic boundary led to the proposal that this high-Mg region is the remnant of an ancient, highly degraded impact basin. Here we use a numerical modeling approach to explore the feasibility of this hypothesis and evaluate the results against multiple mission-wide data sets and resulting maps from MESSENGER. We find that an 3000 km diameter impact basin easily exhumes Mg-rich mantle material but that the amount of subsequent modification required to hide basin structure is incompatible with the strength of the geochemical anomaly, which is also present in maps of Gamma Ray and Neutron Spectrometer data. Consequently, the high-Mg region is more likely to be the product of high-temperature volcanism sourced from a chemically heterogeneous mantle than the remains of a large impact event.
77 FR 59703 - Environmental Impact Statement; Taos Regional Airport, Taos, NM
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2012-09-28
... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Environmental Impact Statement; Taos...'' Environmental Impact Statement (EIS). The Town of Taos, owner and operator of Taos Regional Airport located in Taos, New Mexico, has requested the FAA to approve revisions to its Airport Layout Plan (ALP) to...
Agriculture Impacts of Regional Nuclear Conflict
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xia, Lili; Robock, Alan; Mills, Michael; Toon, Owen Brian
2013-04-01
One of the major consequences of nuclear war would be climate change due to massive smoke injection into the atmosphere. Smoke from burning cities can be lofted into the stratosphere where it will have an e-folding lifetime more than 5 years. The climate changes include significant cooling, reduction of solar radiation, and reduction of precipitation. Each of these changes can affect agricultural productivity. To investigate the response from a regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan, we used the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer agricultural simulation model. We first evaluated the model by forcing it with daily weather data and management practices in China and the USA for rice, maize, wheat, and soybeans. Then we perturbed observed weather data using monthly climate anomalies for a 10-year period due to a simulated 5 Tg soot injection that could result from a regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan, using a total of 100 15 kt atomic bombs, much less than 1% of the current global nuclear arsenal. We computed anomalies using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE and NCAR's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). We perturbed each year of the observations with anomalies from each year of the 10-year nuclear war simulations. We found that different regions respond differently to a regional nuclear war; southern regions show slight increases of crop yields while in northern regions crop yields drop significantly. Sensitivity tests show that temperature changes due to nuclear war are more important than precipitation and solar radiation changes in affecting crop yields in the regions we studied. In total, crop production in China and the USA would decrease 15-50% averaged over the 10 years using both models' output. Simulations forced by ModelE output show smaller impacts than simulations forced by WACCM output at the end of the 10 year period because of the different temperature responses in the two models.
Venus - Impact Crater in Eastern Navka Region
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
1991-01-01
This Magellan image, which is 50 kilometers (31 miles) in width and 80 kilometers (50 miles) in length, is centered at 11.9 degrees latitude, 352 degrees longitude in the eastern Navka Region of Venus. The crater, which is approximately 8 kilometers (5 miles) in diameter, displays a butterfly symmetry pattern. The ejecta pattern most likely results from an oblique impact, where the impactor came from the south and ejected material to the north.
Human impact on wildfires varies between regions and with vegetation productivity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lasslop, Gitta; Kloster, Silvia
2017-11-01
We assess the influence of humans on burned area simulated with a dynamic global vegetation model. The human impact in the model is based on population density and cropland fraction, which were identified as important drivers of burned area in analyses of global datasets, and are commonly used in global models. After an evaluation of the sensitivity to these two variables we extend the model by including an additional effect of the cropland fraction on the fire duration. The general pattern of human influence is similar in both model versions: the strongest human impact is found in regions with intermediate productivity, where fire occurrence is not limited by fuel load or climatic conditions. Human effects in the model increases burned area in the tropics, while in temperate regions burned area is reduced. While the population density is similar on average for the tropical and temperate regions, the cropland fraction is higher in temperate regions, and leads to a strong suppression of fire. The model shows a low human impact in the boreal region, where both population density and cropland fraction is very low and the climatic conditions, as well as the vegetation productivity limit fire. Previous studies attributed a decrease in fire activity found in global charcoal datasets to human activity. This is confirmed by our simulations, which only show a decrease in burned area when the human influence on fire is accounted for, and not with only natural effects on fires. We assess how the vegetation-fire feedback influences the results, by comparing simulations with dynamic vegetation biogeography to simulations with prescribed vegetation. The vegetation-fire feedback increases the human impact on burned area by 10% for present day conditions. These results emphasize that projections of burned area need to account for the interactions between fire, climate, vegetation and humans.
Harrison, David; Coughlin, Conor; Hogan, Dylan; Edwards, Deborah A; Smith, Benjamin C
2018-01-01
The present paper describes a methodology for evaluating impacts of Superfund remedial alternatives on the regional economy in the context of a broader sustainability evaluation. Although economic impact methodology is well established, some applications to Superfund remedial evaluation have created confusion because of seemingly contradictory results. This confusion arises from failure to be explicit about 2 opposing impacts of remediation expenditures: 1) positive regional impacts of spending additional money in the region and 2) negative regional impacts of the need to pay for the expenditures (and thus forgo other expenditures in the region). The present paper provides a template for economic impact assessment that takes both positive and negative impacts into account, thus providing comprehensive estimates of net impacts. The paper also provides a strategy for identifying and estimating major uncertainties in the net impacts. The recommended methodology was applied at the Portland Harbor Superfund Site, located along the Lower Willamette River in Portland, Oregon, USA. The US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) developed remedial alternatives that it estimated would cost up to several billion dollars, with construction durations possibly lasting decades. The economic study estimated regional economic impacts-measured in terms of gross regional product (GRP), personal income, population, and employment-for 5 of the USEPA alternatives relative to the "no further action" alternative. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:32-42. © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).
Correlation of lunar far-side magnetized regions with ringed impact basins
Anderson, K.A.; Wilhelms, D.E.
1979-01-01
By the method of electron reflection, we have identified seven well-defined magnetized regions in the equatorial belt of the lunar far side sampled by the Apollo 16 Particles and Fields subsatellite. Most of these surface magnetic fields lie within one basin radius from the rim of a ringed impact basin, where thick deposits of basin ejecta are observed or inferred. The strongest of the seven magnetic features is linear, at least 250 km long, and radial to the Freundlich-Sharonov basin. The apparent correlation with basin ejecta suggests some form of impact origin for the observed permanently magnetized regions. ?? 1979.
Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Kucharski, Fred; Azharuddin, Syed
2017-03-01
ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (`SPEEDY'). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air-sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant impact
Impacts of Climate Policy on Regional Air Quality, Health, and Air Quality Regulatory Procedures
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thompson, T. M.; Selin, N. E.
2011-12-01
Both the changing climate, and the policy implemented to address climate change can impact regional air quality. We evaluate the impacts of potential selected climate policies on modeled regional air quality with respect to national pollution standards, human health and the sensitivity of health uncertainty ranges. To assess changes in air quality due to climate policy, we couple output from a regional computable general equilibrium economic model (the US Regional Energy Policy [USREP] model), with a regional air quality model (the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions [CAMx]). USREP uses economic variables to determine how potential future U.S. climate policy would change emissions of regional pollutants (CO, VOC, NOx, SO2, NH3, black carbon, and organic carbon) from ten emissions-heavy sectors of the economy (electricity, coal, gas, crude oil, refined oil, energy intensive industry, other industry, service, agriculture, and transportation [light duty and heavy duty]). Changes in emissions are then modeled using CAMx to determine the impact on air quality in several cities in the Northeast US. We first calculate the impact of climate policy by using regulatory procedures used to show attainment with National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone and particulate matter. Building on previous work, we compare those results with the calculated results and uncertainties associated with human health impacts due to climate policy. This work addresses a potential disconnect between NAAQS regulatory procedures and the cost/benefit analysis required for and by the Clean Air Act.
Assessing climate change impacts on water resources in remote mountain regions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Buytaert, Wouter; De Bièvre, Bert
2013-04-01
From a water resources perspective, remote mountain regions are often considered as a basket case. They are often regions where poverty is often interlocked with multiple threats to water supply, data scarcity, and high uncertainties. In these environments, it is paramount to generate locally relevant knowledge about water resources and how they impact local livelihoods. This is often problematic. Existing environmental data collection tends to be geographically biased towards more densely populated regions, and prioritized towards strategic economic activities. Data may also be locked behind institutional and technological barriers. These issues create a "knowledge trap" for data-poor regions, which is especially acute in remote and hard-to-reach mountain regions. We present lessons learned from a decade of water resources research in remote mountain regions of the Andes, Africa and South Asia. We review the entire tool chain of assessing climate change impacts on water resources, including the interrogation and downscaling of global circulation models, translating climate variables in water availability and access, and assessing local vulnerability. In global circulation models, mountain regions often stand out as regions of high uncertainties and lack of agreement of future trends. This is partly a technical artifact because of the different resolution and representation of mountain topography, but it also highlights fundamental uncertainties in climate impacts on mountain climate. This problem also affects downscaling efforts, because regional climate models should be run in very high spatial resolution to resolve local gradients, which is computationally very expensive. At the same time statistical downscaling methods may fail to find significant relations between local climate properties and synoptic processes. Further uncertainties are introduced when downscaled climate variables such as precipitation and temperature are to be translated in hydrologically
Venus - Impact Crater in Eastern Navka Region
1996-11-20
This Magellan image, which is 50 kilometers (31 miles) in width and 80 kilometers (50 miles) in length, is centered at 11.9 degrees latitude, 352 degrees longitude in the eastern Navka Region of Venus. The crater, which is approximately 8 kilometers (5 miles) in diameter, displays a butterfly symmetry pattern. The ejecta pattern most likely results from an oblique impact, where the impactor came from the south and ejected material to the north. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA00474
Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact: Four Regional Scenarios (Presentation)
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Tegen, S.
NREL's Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model for Offshore Wind, is a computer tool for studying the economic impacts of fixed-bottom offshore wind projects in the United States. This presentation provides the results of an analysis of four offshore wind development scenarios in the Southeast Atlantic, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico regions.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sobie, S. R.; Murdock, T. Q.
2016-12-01
Infrastructure vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning have created demand for detailed information about climate change and extreme events from local and regional governments. Individual communities often have distinct priorities regarding climate change impacts. While projections from climate models are available to investigate these impacts, they are not always applicable or easily interpreted by local agencies. We discuss a series of climate impacts assessments for several regional and local governments in southwestern British Columbia. Each of the assessments was conducted with input from the users on project definition from the start of the process and on interpretation of results throughout each project. To produce sufficient detail for the assessment regions, we produce high-resolution (800m) simulations of precipitation and temperature using downscaled climate model projections. Sets of derived climate parameters tailored to each region are calculated from both standard indices such as CLIMDEX and from an energy-balance snowpack model. Involving user groups from the beginning of the analysis helps to convey the meaning and confidence of each set of climate change parameters to users and also clarifies what projections are feasible or not for impact assessments. We discuss the different levels of involvement and collaboration with each organization, and the resulting decisions implemented following each of the projects.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Baker, Justin S.; Havlík, Petr; Beach, Robert; Leclère, David; Schmid, Erwin; Valin, Hugo; Cole, Jefferson; Creason, Jared; Ohrel, Sara; McFarland, James
2018-06-01
Agriculture is one of the sectors that is expected to be most significantly impacted by climate change. There has been considerable interest in assessing these impacts and many recent studies investigating agricultural impacts for individual countries and regions using an array of models. However, the great majority of existing studies explore impacts on a country or region of interest without explicitly accounting for impacts on the rest of the world. This approach can bias the results of impact assessments for agriculture given the importance of global trade in this sector. Due to potential impacts on relative competitiveness, international trade, global supply, and prices, the net impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector in each region depend not only on productivity impacts within that region, but on how climate change impacts agricultural productivity throughout the world. In this study, we apply a global model of agriculture and forestry to evaluate climate change impacts on US agriculture with and without accounting for climate change impacts in the rest of the world. In addition, we examine scenarios where trade is expanded to explore the implications for regional allocation of production, trade volumes, and prices. To our knowledge, this is one of the only attempts to explicitly quantify the relative importance of accounting for global climate change when conducting regional assessments of climate change impacts. The results of our analyses reveal substantial differences in estimated impacts on the US agricultural sector when accounting for global impacts vs. US-only impacts, particularly for commodities where the United States has a smaller share of global production. In addition, we find that freer trade can play an important role in helping to buffer regional productivity shocks.
Regional Impacts of Urbanization in the United States
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bounoua, Lahouari; Zhang, Ping; Nigro, Joseph; Lachir, Asia; Thome, Kurtis
2017-01-01
We simulate the impact of impervious surface areas (ISA) on the U.S. local and regional climate. At a local scale, we find the urban area warmer than the surrounding vegetation in most cities, except in arid climate cities where urban temperature is cooler for much of the daytime. For all 9 regions studied, simulated results show that the growing season maximum surface temperature difference between urban and the dominant vegetation occurs around mid-day and is strongest in the northern regions. Regional temperature differences of 3.0 C, 3.4 C, and 3.9 C were simulated in the Northeast, Midwest, and Northwest, respectively. In these regions evaporative cooling, during the growing season, creates a stronger urban heat island (UHI). The UHI is less pronounced during winter when vegetation is dormant. Our results suggest that the ISA temperature is set by building material's characteristics and its departure from that of the surrounding vegetation is essentially driven by evaporative cooling. Except when rainfall is small, the highest surface runoff to precipitation ratios are simulated in most cities, especially when precipitation events occur as heavy downpours. In terms of photosynthesis, we provide a detailed distribution of maximum production in the U.S., a needed product for policy and urban planners.
Salinity Impacts on Agriculture and Groundwater in Delta Regions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Clarke, D.; Salehin, M.; Jairuddin, M.; Saleh, A. F. M.; Rahman, M. M.; Parks, K. E.; Haque, M. A.; Lázár, A. N.; Payo, A.
2015-12-01
Delta regions are attractive for high intensity agriculture due to the availability of rich sedimentary soils and of fresh water. Many of the world's tropical deltas support high population densities which are reliant on irrigated agriculture. However environmental changes such as sea level rise, tidal inundation and reduced river flows have reduced the quantity and quality of water available for successful agriculture. Additionally, anthropogenic influences such as the over abstraction of ground water and the increased use of low quality water from river inlets has resulted in the accumulation of salts in the soils which diminishes crop productivity. Communities based in these regions are usually reliant on the same water for drinking and cooking because surface water is frequently contaminated by commercial and urban pollution. The expansion of shallow tube well systems for drinking water and agricultural use over the last few decades has resulted in mobilisation of salinity in the coastal and estuarine fringes. Sustainable development in delta regions is becoming constrained by water salinity. However salinity is often studied as an independent issue by specialists working in the fields of agriculture, community water supply and groundwater. The lack of interaction between these disciplines often results in corrective actions being applied to one sector without fully assessing the effects of these actions on other sectors. This paper describes a framework for indentifying the causes and impacts of salinity in delta regions based on the source-pathway-receptor framework. It uses examples and scenarios from the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta in Bangladesh together with field measurements and observations made in vulnerable coastal communities. The paper demonstrates the importance of creating an holistic understanding of the development and management of water resources to reduce the impact of salinity in fresh water in delta regions.
THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION
This paper assesses the potential impacts of climate change on the mid-Atlantic coastal (MAC) region of the United States. In order of increasing uncertainty, it is projected that sea level, temperature and streamflow will increase in the MAC region in response to higher levels o...
The Regional Environmental Impacts of Atmospheric Aerosols over Egypt
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zakey, Ashraf; Ibrahim, Alaa
2015-04-01
Identifying the origin (natural versus anthropogenic) and the dynamics of aerosols over Egypt at varying temporal and spatial scales provide valuable knowledge on the regional climate impacts of aerosols and their ultimate connections to the Earth's regional climate system at the MENA region. At regional scale, Egypt is exposed to air pollution with levels exceeding typical air-quality standards. This is particularly true for the Nile Delta region, being at the crossroads of different aerosol species originating from local urban-industrial and biomass-burning activities, regional dust sources, and European pollution from the north. The Environmental Climate Model (EnvClimA) is used to investigate both of the biogenic and anthropogenic aerosols over Egypt. The dominant natural aerosols over Egypt are due to the sand and dust storms, which frequently occur during the transitional seasons (spring and autumn). In winter, the maximum frequency reaches 2 to 3 per day in the north, which decreases gradually southward with a frequency of 0.5-1 per day. Monitoring one of the most basic aerosol parameters, the aerosol optical depth (AOD), is a main experimental and modeling task in aerosol studies. We used the aerosol optical depth to quantify the amount and variability of aerosol loading in the atmospheric column over a certain areas. The aerosols optical depth from the model is higher in spring season due to the impacts of dust activity over Egypt as results of the westerly wind, which carries more dust particles from the Libyan Desert. The model result shows that the mass load of fine aerosols has a longer life-time than the coarse aerosols. In autumn season, the modelled aerosol optical depth tends to increase due to the biomass burning in the delta of Egypt. Natural aerosol from the model tends to scatter the solar radiation while most of the anthropogenic aerosols tend to absorb the longwave solar radiation. The overall results indicate that the AOD is lowest in winter
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nunes, A.; Fernandes, M.; Silva, G. C., Jr.
2017-12-01
Aquifers can be key players in regional water resources. Precipitation infiltration is the most relevant process in recharging the aquifers. In that regard, understanding precipitation changes and impacts on the hydrological cycle helps in the assessment of groundwater availability from the aquifers. Regional modeling systems can provide precipitation, near-surface air temperature, together with soil moisture at different ground levels from coupled land-surface schemes. More accurate those variables are better the evaluation of the precipitation impact on the groundwater. Downscaling of global reanalysis very often employs regional modeling systems, in order to give more detailed information for impact assessment studies at regional scales. In particular, the regional modeling system, Satellite-enhanced Regional Downscaling for Applied Studies (SRDAS), might improve the accuracy of hydrometeorological variables in regions with spatial and temporal scarcity of in-situ observations. SRDAS combines assimilation of precipitation estimates from gauge-corrected satellite-based products with spectral nudging technique. The SRDAS hourly outputs provide monthly means of atmospheric and land-surface variables, including precipitation, used in the calculations of the hydrological budget terms. Results show the impact of changes in precipitation on groundwater in the aquifer located near the southeastern coastline of Brazil, through the assessment of the water-cycle terms, using a hydrological model during dry and rainy periods found in the 15-year numerical integration of SRDAS.
Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Tegen, S.; Keyser, D.; Flores-Espino, F.
This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Researchers worked with developers and industry representatives in each region to create potential offshore wind deployment and supply chain growth scenarios, specific to their locations. These scenarios were used as inputs into the offshore JEDI model to estimate jobs and other gross economic impacts in each region.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Setiawan, MI; Hasyim, C.; Kurniasih, N.; Abdullah, D.; Napitupulu, D.; Rahim, R.; Sukoco, A.; Dhaniarti, I.; Suyono, J.; Sudapet, IN; Nasihien, RD; Wulandari, DAR; Reswanda; Mudjanarko, SW; Sugeng; Wajdi, MBN
2018-04-01
ICT becomes a key element to improve industrial infrastructure efficiency and sustainable economic productivity. This study aims to analysis the impact of regional improvement on information and communication development in Indonesia. This research is a correlational study. Population of this research include 151 regions in Indonesia. By using a total sampling, there were 151 sample regions. The results show there are the strong impact of regional growth on increasing Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of information and communication. It can be seen from all regional improvement sub variables that have a high correlation in increasing GRDP of Information and Communication in Indonesia. Only two sub-variables that have low correlation to GRDP of Information and Communication variable i.e. GRDP of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (0.01) and GRDP of Mining and Quarrying (0.04). The correlation coefficient (R) is 0.981, means the variable of information and communication GRDP has a very strong correlation with regional growth variable. Thus the value of Adjusted R Square is 95.8%, means there are impact of regional growth variables in increasing GRDPof Information and Communication, while the increase of 4.2% of Information and Communication GRDP is influenced by other factors aside from regional improvement.
Zhang, Yanxia; Qu, Shen; Zhao, Jing; Zhu, Ge; Zhang, Yanxu; Lu, Xi; Sabel, Clive E; Wang, Haikun
2018-03-01
Serious air pollution has caused about one million premature deaths per year in China recently. Besides cross-border atmospheric transport of air pollution, trade also relocates pollution and related health impacts across China as a result of the spatial separation between consumption and production. This study proposes an approach for calculating the health impacts of emissions due to a region's consumption based on a multidisciplinary methodology coupling economic, atmospheric, and epidemiological models. These analyses were performed for China's Beijing and Hebei provinces. It was found that these provinces' consumption-based premature deaths attributable to ambient PM 2.5 were respectively 22,500 and 49,700, which were 23% higher and 37% lower than the numbers solely within their boundaries in 2007. The difference between the effects of trade and trade-related emissions on premature deaths attributable to air pollution in a region has also been clarified. The results illustrate the large and broad impact of domestic trade on regional air quality and the need for comprehensive consideration of supply chains in designing policy to mitigate the negative health impacts of air pollution across China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Evaluation of the Impact of AIRS Radiance and Profile Data Assimilation in Partly Cloudy Regions
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zavodsky, Bradley; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Jedlovec, Gary
2013-01-01
Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Retrieved profiles from AIRS contain much of the information that is contained in the radiances and may be able to reveal reasons for this reduced impact. Assimilating AIRS retrieved profiles in an identical analysis configuration to the radiances, tracking the quantity and quality of the assimilated data in each technique, and examining analysis increments and forecast impact from each data type can yield clues as to the reasons for the reduced impact. By doing this with regional scale models individual synoptic features (and the impact of AIRS on these features) can be more easily tracked. This project examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing operational techniques used for AIRS radiances and research techniques used for AIRS retrieved profiles. Parallel versions of a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) are run to examine the impact AIRS radiances and retrieved profiles. Statistical evaluation of a long-term series of forecast runs will be compared along with preliminary results of in-depth investigations for select case comparing the analysis increments in partly cloudy regions and short-term forecast impacts.
Impacts of boundary condition changes on regional climate projections over West Africa
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, Jee Hee; Kim, Yeonjoo; Wang, Guiling
2017-06-01
Future projections using regional climate models (RCMs) are driven with boundary conditions (BCs) typically derived from global climate models. Understanding the impact of the various BCs on regional climate projections is critical for characterizing their robustness and uncertainties. In this study, the International Center for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model Version 4 (RegCM4) is used to investigate the impact of different aspects of boundary conditions, including lateral BCs and sea surface temperature (SST), on projected future changes of regional climate in West Africa, and BCs from the coupled European Community-Hamburg Atmospheric Model 5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model are used as an example. Historical, future, and several sensitivity experiments are conducted with various combinations of BCs and CO2 concentration, and differences among the experiments are compared to identify the most important drivers for RCMs. When driven by changes in all factors, the RegCM4-produced future climate changes include significantly drier conditions in Sahel and wetter conditions along the Guinean coast. Changes in CO2 concentration within the RCM domain alone or changes in wind vectors at the domain boundaries alone have minor impact on projected future climate changes. Changes in the atmospheric humidity alone at the domain boundaries lead to a wetter Sahel due to the northward migration of rain belts during summer. This impact, although significant, is offset and dominated by changes of other BC factors (primarily temperature) that cause a drying signal. Future changes of atmospheric temperature at the domain boundaries combined with SST changes over oceans are sufficient to cause a future climate that closely resembles the projection that accounts for all factors combined. Therefore, climate variability and changes simulated by RCMs depend primarily on the variability and change of temperature aspects of the RCM BCs. Moreover, it is found that the response
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Brainard, J.; Munson, J.S.
1979-04-15
The impacts described here for 1985 and 1990 are based on a national energy projection which assumes medium energy demand and fuel supply through 1990 but does not incorporate the policies of the National Energy Act (NEA). This scenario, referred to as the Projection Series C or the TRENDLONG MID-MID scenario, is one of six possible energy futures developed by the DOE Energy Information Administration for the Department's 1977 Annual Report to Congress. It was chosen as representative of the official DOE national energy projections when this project was initiated, prior to the passage of the National Energy Act. Sincemore » the RIIA program is part of an ongoing review of the regional impact of energy policies, the next phase will examine the National Energy Act (NEA) and initiatives suggested by the President's second National Energy Plan. However, since coal utilization increases under the NEA, in general, impacts identified in the TRENDLONG Series C Scenario should provide a framework for the discussion of impacts by NEA. The environmental impacts discussed in this volume are for Federal Region I (Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut). However, there are nine companion volumes, one for each of the other Federal Regions.« less
The Impact of a Learning Culture on Organisational Change in Regional SMEs
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Bamberry, Goff; Sabri-Matanagh, Saeed; Duncan, Glen
2015-01-01
This paper explores the impact of a learning culture on organisational change in small to medium-sized regional manufacturing enterprises following a review of the related literature, and a qualitative study of 10 manufacturing SMEs in the Riverina region of New South Wales. The research confirmed that key learning culture factors as identified in…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Maksimowicz, M.; Masarik, M. T.; Brandt, J.; Flores, A. N.
2016-12-01
Land use/land cover (LULC) change directly impacts the partitioning of surface mass and energy fluxes. Regional-scale weather and climate are potentially altered by LULC if the resultant changes in partitioning of surface energy fluxes are extensive enough. Dynamics of land use, particularly those related to the social dimensions of the Earth System, are often simplified or not represented in regional land-atmosphere models. This study explores the role of LULC change on a regional hydroclimate system, focusing on potential hydroclimate changes arising from an extended civil conflict in Mozambique. Civil war from 1977-1992 in Mozambique led to land use change at a regional scale as a result of the collapse of large herbivore populations due to poaching. Since the war ended, farming has increased, poaching was curtailed, and animal populations were reintroduced. In this study LULC in a region encompassing Gorongosa is classified at three instances between 1977 to 2015 using Landsat imagery. We use these derived LULC datasets to inform lower boundary conditions in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. To quantify potential hydrometeorological changes arising from conflict-driven land use change, we performed a factorial-like experiment by mixing input LULC maps and atmospheric forcing data from before, during, and after the civil war. Analysis of the Landsat data shows measurable land cover change from 1977-present as tree cover encroached into grasslands. Initial tests show corresponding sensitivities to different LULC schemes within the WRF model. Preliminary results suggest that the war did indeed impact regional hydroclimate in a significant way via its direct and indirect impacts on land-atmosphere interactions. Results of this study suggest that LULC change arising from regional conflicts are a potentially understudied, yet important human process to capture in both regional reanalyses and climate change projections.
Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.
Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C; Gray, Lesley J; Scaife, Adam A; Dunstone, Nick J; Harder, Jerald W; Knight, Jeff R; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C; Wood, Richard A
2015-06-23
Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Situ, S.; Guenther, Alex B.; Wang, X. J.
In this study, the BVOC emissions in November 2010 over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in southern China have been estimated by the latest version of a Biogenic Volatile Organic Compound (BVOC) emission model (MEGAN v2.1). The evaluation of MEGAN performance at a representative forest site within this region indicates MEGAN can estimate BVOC emissions reasonably well in this region except overestimating isoprene emission in autumn for reasons that are discussed in this manuscript. Along with the output from MEGAN, the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used to estimate the impacts of BVOC emissions onmore » surface ozone in the PRD region. The results show BVOC emissions increase the daytime ozone peak by *3 ppb on average, and the max hourly impacts of BVOC emissions on the daytime ozone peak is 24.8 ppb. Surface ozone mixing ratios in the central area of Guangzhou- Foshan and the western Jiangmen are most sensitive to BVOC emissions BVOCs from outside and central PRD influence the central area of Guangzhou-Foshan and the western Jiangmen significantly while BVOCs from rural PRD mainly influence the western Jiangmen. The impacts of BVOC emissions on surface ozone differ in different PRD cities, and the impact varies in different seasons. Foshan and Jiangmen being most affected in autumn, result in 6.0 ppb and 5.5 ppb increases in surface ozone concentrations, while Guangzhou and Huizhou become more affected in summer. Three additional experiments concerning the sensitivity of surface ozone to MEGAN input variables show that surface ozone is more sensitive to landcover change, followed by emission factors and meteorology.« less
Making an Economic Impact: Higher Education and the English Regions. Research Report
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Kelly, Ursula; McLellan, Donald; McNicoll, Iain
2010-01-01
This is the first published study of the impact of the higher education sector on the English regions. This study presents key economic features of UK higher education in the academic year 2007/08 and those aspects of its contribution to the nine English regions that can be readily measured. The sector is analysed as a conventional industry,…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lewinschal, Anna; Ekman, Annica; Hansson, Hans-Christen
2017-04-01
(RTP) coefficients, which directly link regional aerosol or aerosol precursor emissions to the temperature response in different regions. These RTP coefficients can provide a simplified way to perform an initial evaluation of climate impacts of e.g. different emission policy pathways and pollution abatement strategies.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Gunning, Colleen, E-mail: Colleen_Gunning@health.qld.gov.a; Harris, Patrick; Mallett, John
2011-07-15
Health service and partners completed an equity focussed health impact assessment to influence the consideration of health and equity within regional land-use planning in Queensland, Australia. This project demonstrated how an equity oriented assessment matrix can assist in testing regional planning scenarios. It is hoped that this HIA will contribute to the emerging interest in ensuring that potential differential health impacts continue to be considered as part of land-use planning processes.
Regionalization and Evaluation of Impacts of Climate Change on Mexican Coasts
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nava-Sanchez, E. H.; Murillo-Jimenez, J. M.; Godinez-Orta, L.; Morales-Perez, R. A.
2009-04-01
Mexican coasts exhibit a high variety of geoforms and processes, and consequently, are exposed to a variability of types and impact levels of geological hazards. Tropical cyclones are the most devastating hazards for the Mexican coast, although, impact levels are higher on the southern coast of both Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The second dangerous geo-hazards are earthquakes and tsunamis, which affect all Pacific coast, causing more damage the earthquakes generated in the Cocos Trench. For seismic hazards, there is a regionalization of the Mexican territory, however, even though the high levels of damages caused by other natural hazards, there is a lack of initiatives for performing atlas of natural hazards or coastal management plans. Exceptions are the local scale atlas of natural hazards by the Mexican Geological Survey or some other local scale atlas made with several errors by non experience private consultant companies. Our work shows results of analyses of coastal geological hazards associated to global warming such as the sea level rise, and the increase in strength of some coastal processes. Initially, due to the high diversity in coastal environments for the Mexican coast, it was considered that, a regional characterization of the coastal zone, and the gathering of environmental data for determining levels of impact of the various coastal hazards, as an evaluation of coastal vulnerability. Thus, the basic criteria for defining Coastal Regions, in order of importance, were the following: geomorphology, climate, geology, tectonics, and oceanography. Also, some anthropogenic factors were taken in account for the coastal regionalization, such as civil construction along the coastline, land used and modification of the fluvial system. The analysis of such criteria, allows us to classify the Mexican coasts in 10 Coastal Regions. On the Pacific coast regions are: (I) Pacific Coast of Baja California, (II) Gulf Coast of Baja California, (III) Coastal Plain of
The New England Region is not considered limited by water availability. While the region was impacted by a serious drought during the mid-1960s, overall, images of a vast network of lush green forests and inviting waterways, extensive shorelines, and a landscape of mountain strea...
Potential climatic impacts of vegetation change: A regional modeling study
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Copeland, Jeffrey H.; Pielke, Roger A.; Kittel, Timothy G. F.
1996-03-01
The human species has been modifying the landscape long before the development of modern agrarian techniques. Much of the land area of the conterminous United States is currently used for agricultural production. In certain regions this change in vegetative cover from its natural state may have led to local climatic change. A regional climate version of the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System was used to assess the impact of a natural versus current vegetation distribution on the weather and climate of July 1989. The results indicate that coherent regions of substantial changes, of both positive and negative sign, in screen height temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation are a possible consequence of land use change throughout the United States. The simulated changes in the screen height quantities were closely related to changes in the vegetation parameters of albedo, roughness length, leaf area index, and fractional coverage.
The Effect of Mitigation Policy on Regional Climate Impacts on the U.S. Electric Sector
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cohen, S. M.; Sun, Y.; Strzepek, K.; McFarland, J.; Boehlert, B.; Fant, C.
2017-12-01
Climate change can influence the U.S. electricity sector in many ways, the nature of which can be shaped by energy and environmental policy choices. Changing temperatures affect electricity demand largely through heating and cooling needs, and temperatures also affect generation and transmission system performance. Altered precipitation patterns affect the regional and seasonal distribution of surface water runoff, which changes hydropower operation and thermal cooling water availability. The extent to which these stimuli influence U.S. power sector operation and planning will depend to some extent on whether or not proactive policies are enacted to mitigate these impacts. Mitigation policies such as CO2 emissions limits or technology restrictions can change the makeup of the electricity system while reducing the extent of climate change itself. We use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), a U.S. electric sector capacity expansion model, to explore electric sector evolution through 2050 under alternative climate and policy assumptions. The model endogenously represents climate impacts on load, power system performance, cooling water availability, and hydropower, allowing internally consistent system responses to climate change along with projected technology, market, and policy conditions. We compare climate impacts across 5 global circulation models for a 8.5 W/m2 representative concentration pathway (RCP) without a climate mitigation policy and a 4.5 W/m2 RCP with climate mitigation. Climate drivers affect the capacity and generation mix at the national and regional levels, with relative growth of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies depending on local electricity system characteristics. These differences affect regional economic impacts, measured here as changes to electricity price and system costs. Mitigation policy reduces the economic and system impacts of climate change largely by moderating
Regional air quality impacts of future fire emissions in Sumatra and Kalimantan
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Marlier, Miriam E.; DeFries, Ruth S.; Kim, Patrick S.; Gaveau, David L. A.; Koplitz, Shannon N.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Margono, Belinda A.; Myers, Samuel S.
2015-05-01
Fire emissions associated with land cover change and land management contribute to the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants, which can affect regional air quality and climate. Mitigating these impacts requires a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between fires and different land cover change trajectories and land management strategies. We develop future fire emissions inventories from 2010-2030 for Sumatra and Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) to assess the impact of varying levels of forest and peatland conservation on air quality in Equatorial Asia. To compile these inventories, we combine detailed land cover information from published maps of forest extent, satellite fire radiative power observations, fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database, and spatially explicit future land cover projections using a land cover change model. We apply the sensitivities of mean smoke concentrations to Indonesian fire emissions, calculated by the GEOS-Chem adjoint model, to our scenario-based future fire emissions inventories to quantify the different impacts of fires on surface air quality across Equatorial Asia. We find that public health impacts are highly sensitive to the location of fires, with emissions from Sumatra contributing more to smoke concentrations at population centers across the region than Kalimantan, which had higher emissions by more than a factor of two. Compared to business-as-usual projections, protecting peatlands from fires reduces smoke concentrations in the cities of Singapore and Palembang by 70% and 40%, and by 60% for the Equatorial Asian region, weighted by the population in each grid cell. Our results indicate the importance of focusing conservation priorities on protecting both forested (intact or logged) peatlands and non-forested peatlands from fire, even after considering potential leakage of deforestation pressure to other areas, in order to limit the impact of fire emissions on atmospheric smoke concentrations and
An Assessment of Regional Variations in Martian Modified Impact Crater Morphology
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Craddock, Robert A.; Bandeira, Lourenço.; Howard, Alan D.
2018-03-01
Impact craters on Mars have been extensively modified by ancient geologic processes that may have included rainfall and surface runoff, snow and ice, denudation by lava flows, burial by eolian material, or others. Many of these processes can leave distinct signatures on the morphometry of the modified impact crater as well as the surrounding landscape. To look for signs of potential regional differences in crater modification processes, we conducted an analysis of different morphometric parameters related to modified impact craters located in the Margaritifer Sinus, Sinus Sabaeus, Iapygia, Mare Tyrrhenum, Aeolis, and Eridania quadrangles, including depth, crater wall slope, crater floor slope, the curvature between the interior wall and the crater floor slope, and the curvature between the interior wall and surrounding landscape. A Welch's t test analysis comparing these parameters shows that fresh impact craters (Type 4) have consistent morphologies regardless of their geographic location examined in this study, which is not unexpected. Modified impact craters both in the initial (Type 3) and terminal stages (Type 1) of modification also have statistically consistent morphologies. This would suggest that the processes that operated in the late Noachian were globally ubiquitous, and that modified craters eventually reached a stable crater morphology. However, craters preserved in advanced (but not terminal) stages of modification (Type 2) have morphologies that vary across the quadrangles. It is possible that these variations reflect spatial differences in the types and intensity of geologic processes that operated during the Noachian, implying that the ancient climate also varied across regions.
The Impact of Regional Higher Education Spaces on the Security of International Students
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Forbes-Mewett, Helen
2016-01-01
The security of international students in regional higher education spaces in Australia has been overlooked. Contingency theory provides the framework for this case study to explore the organisational structure and support services relevant to a regional higher education space and how this impacts the security of international students. In-depth…
Potential climatic impacts of vegetation change: A regional modeling study
Copeland, J.H.; Pielke, R.A.; Kittel, T.G.F.
1996-01-01
The human species has been modifying the landscape long before the development of modern agrarian techniques. Much of the land area of the conterminous United States is currently used for agricultural production. In certain regions this change in vegetative cover from its natural state may have led to local climatic change. A regional climate version of the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System was used to assess the impact of a natural versus current vegetation distribution on the weather and climate of July 1989. The results indicate that coherent regions of substantial changes, of both positive and negative sign, in screen height temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation are a possible consequence of land use change throughout the United States. The simulated changes in the screen height quantities were closely related to changes in the vegetation parameters of albedo, roughness length, leaf area index, and fractional coverage. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cohen, Stewart J.
1996-04-01
This paper outlines the potential role integrated regional assessments of global climatic change scenarios could play in building better links between science and related policy concerns. The concept is illustrated through description of an ongoing case study from Canada—the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS). As part of the Government of Canada's Green Plan, the Global Warming Science Program includes a study of regional impacts of global warming scenarios in the Mackenzie Basin, located in northwestern Canada. The MBIS is a six-year program focussing on potential climate-induced changes in the land and water resource base, and the implications of four scenarios of global climatic change on land use and economic policies in this region. These policy issues include interjurisdictional water management, sustainability of native lifestyles, economic development opportunities (agriculture, forestry, tourism, etc.), sustainability of ecosystems and infrastructure maintenance. MBIS is due to be completed in 1997. MBIS represents an attempt to address regional impacts by incorporating a "family of integrators" into the study framework, and by directly involving stakeholders in planning and research activities. The experience in organizing and carrying out this project may provide some lessons for others interested in organizing regional or country studies.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Brunelliere, Angele; Dufour, Sophie; Nguyen, Noel; Frauenfelder, Ulrich Hans
2009-01-01
This event-related potential (ERP) study examined the impact of phonological variation resulting from a vowel merger on phoneme perception. The perception of the /e/-/[epsilon]/ contrast which does not exist in Southern French-speaking regions, and which is in the process of merging in Northern French-speaking regions, was compared to the…
Climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems in the multi-state region centered on Chicago
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
This paper describes the potential impacts of warming temperatures and changing precipitation on plants wildlife, invasive species, pests and agricultural ecosystems across the multistate region centered on Chicago, Illinois. We define the region broadly to include several hundred kilometers. We c...
Background and Training Needs of Persistently Unemployed Negroes
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Beacham, Herbert C.
1971-01-01
The major purpose of the study was to describe the home, educational and occupational back grounds, econmic status, frequency and duration of unemployment of persistently unemployed Negroes in Tampa, Florida, and their expressed opinions about training, retraining, and relocation of their residences to obtain employment after training. (Author)
A Multihazard Regional Level Impact Assessment for South Asia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Amarnath, Giriraj; Alahacoon, Niranga; Aggarwal, Pramod; Smakhtin, Vladimir
2016-04-01
To prioritize climate adaptation strategies, there is a need for quantitative and systematic regional-level assessments which are comparable across multiple climatic hazard regimes. Assessing which countries in a region are most vulnerable to climate change requires analysis of multiple climatic hazards including: droughts, floods, extreme temperature as well as rainfall and sea-level rise. These five climatic hazards, along with population densities were modelled using GIS which enabled a summary of associated human exposure and agriculture losses. A combined index based on hazard, exposure and adaptive capacity is introduced to identify areas of extreme risks. The analysis results in population climate hazard exposure defined as the relative likelihood that a person in a given location was exposed to a given climate-hazard event in a given period of time. The study presents a detailed and coherent approach to fine-scale climate hazard mapping and identification of risks areas for the regions of South Asia that, for the first time, combines the following unique features: (a) methodological consistency across different climate-related hazards, (b) assessment of total exposure on population and agricultural losses, (c) regional-level spatial coverage, and (d) development of customized tools using ArcGIS toolbox that allow assessment of changes in exposure over time and easy replacement of existing datasets with a newly released or superior datasets. The resulting maps enable comparison of the most vulnerable regions in South Asia to climate-related hazards and is among the most urgent of policy needs. Subnational areas (regions/districts/provinces) most vulnerable to climate change impacts in South Asia are documented. The approach involves overlaying climate hazard maps, sensitivity maps, and adaptive capacity maps following the vulnerability assessment framework of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study used data on the
Radiative impact of a heavy dust storm over India and surrounding oceanic regions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kedia, Sumita; Kumar, Rajesh; Islam, Sahidul; Sathe, Yogesh; Kaginalkar, Akshara
2018-07-01
Efficient management of frequently occurring destructive dust storms requires an in-depth understanding of the extent of impacts of such events. Due to limited availability of observational data, it is difficult to understand/estimate the impact of dust aerosols on the Earth's radiation budget in detail. This study, applies a regional model, Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem), to investigate the impact of an intense dust storm that originated over the Arabian peninsula during 01-02 April 2015 and transported towards the Indian subcontinent by the westerly winds. Two identical numerical experiments are designed, each for 15 days, one with and another without dust aerosols, to estimate the impact of the dust storm over the Indian subcontinent and adjoining regions. WRF-Chem model reproduced the spatial, temporal as well as the vertical distribution of dust plume reasonably well. Model results show significant changes in aerosol optical, physical and radiative properties due to the dominance of coarse mode aerosols in the atmosphere during the dust storm. Analysis of vertical profiles of particulate matter (PM10) concentration reveals the presence of dust aerosols extending from the surface to altitudes as high as 3-4 km during the dust storm period. The dust storm induced a cooling effect at the surface via reduction in shortwave (SW) radiative flux. A substantial decrease in temperature is also seen at 850 hPa due to dust, indicating a significant impact of dust layer on the atmospheric temperature profile. Atmospheric heating due to dust aerosols in the SW region is found to be compensated up to a large extent by longwave (LW) cooling effect of dust. The net dust induced radiative perturbation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) over different regions is negative and varied from -2.49 to -0.34 Wm-2, while it is in the range of -0.62 to + 0.32 Wm-2 at the surface.
Impacts of Groundwater Pumping on Regional and Global Water Resources
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wada, Yoshihide
2016-01-01
Except frozen water in ice and glaciers (68%), groundwater is the world's largest distributed store of freshwater (30%), and has strategic importance to global food and water security. In this chapter, the most recent advances assessing human impact on regional and global groundwater resources are reviewed. This chapter critically evaluates the recently advanced modeling approaches quantifying the effect of groundwater pumping in regional and global groundwater resources and the evidence of feedback to the Earth system including sea-level rise associated with groundwater use. At last, critical challenges and opportunities are identified in the use of groundwater to adapt to growing food demand and uncertain climate.
Black Carbon Emissions and Impacts on the South American Glacial Region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Molina, L. T.; Gallardo, L.; Schmitt, C. G.
2015-12-01
Black carbon is one of the key short-lived climate pollutants, which is a topic of growing interest for near-term mitigation of climate change and air quality improvement. In this presentation we will examine the emissions and impact of black carbon and co-pollutants on the South American glacial region and describe some recent measurements associated with the PISAC (Pollution and its Impacts on the South American Cryosphere) Initiative. The Andes is the longest continental mountain range in the world, extending about 7000 km along western South America through seven countries with complex topography and covering several climate zones, diversity of ecosystems and communities. Air pollution associated with biomass burning and urban emissions affects extensive areas in the region and is a serious public health concern. Scientific evidence indicates that the Andean cryosphere is changing rapidly as snow fields and glaciers generally recede, leading to changes in stream flow and water quality along the Andes. The challenge is to identify the principal causes of the observed changes so that action can be taken to mitigate this negative trend. Despite the paucity of systematic observations along the Andes, a few modeling and observational studies have indicated the presence of black carbon in the high Andes, with potentially significant impact on the Andean cryosphere.
Formation and Regional to Global Impacts of Severe Haze in China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, R.
2017-12-01
As the world's second largest economy, China has experienced severe haze pollution, with fine particulate matter (PM) recently reaching unprecedentedly high levels across many cities. An understanding of the PM formation mechanism is critical in the development of efficient mediation policies to minimize its regional to global impacts. The formation mechanisms leading to severe haze episodes with exceedingly high PM2.5 levels in China remain uncertain, and the abundance and chemical constituents of PM2.5 vary considerably, depending on complex interplay between meteorology, pollution sources, and atmospheric chemical processes. In addition, aerosols interact directly and indirectly with the Earth's radiation budget and climate. For the direct effect, aerosols scatter and absorb solar radiation. Light scattering by aerosols changes the radiative fluxes at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA), at the surface, and within the atmospheric column, while aerosol absorption modifies the atmospheric temperature structure, decreases the solar radiation at the surface, and lowers surface sensible and latent fluxes, suppressing convection and reducing cloud fraction. Furthermore, aerosols by serving as cloud condensation nuclei indirectly impact climate by altering cloud development, lifetime, precipitation, and albedo. This talk will discuss the latest progress in understanding of severe haze formation in China and the regional to global impacts of Asian pollution.
Economic impact of HIV and antiretroviral therapy on education supply in high prevalence regions.
Risley, Claire L; Drake, Lesley J; Bundy, Donald A P
2012-01-01
We set out to estimate, for the three geographical regions with the highest HIV prevalence, (sub-Saharan Africa [SSA], the Caribbean and the Greater Mekong sub-region of East Asia), the human resource and economic impact of HIV on the supply of education from 2008 to 2015, the target date for the achievement of Education For All (EFA), contrasting the continuation of access to care, support and Antiretroviral therapy (ART) to the scenario of universal access. A costed mathematical model of the impact of HIV and ART on teacher recruitment, mortality and absenteeism (Ed-SIDA) was run using best available data for 58 countries, and results aggregated by region. It was estimated that (1) The impact of HIV on teacher supply is sufficient to derail efforts to achieve EFA in several countries and universal access can mitigate this. (2) In SSA, the 2008 costs to education of HIV were about half of those estimated in 2002. Providing universal access for teachers in SSA is cost-effective on education returns alone and provides a return of $3.99 on the dollar. (3) The impacts on education in the hyperendemic countries in Southern Africa will continue to increase to 2015 from its 2008 level, already the highest in the world. (4) If treatment roll-out is successful, numbers of HIV positive teachers are set to increase in all the regions studied. The return on investing in care and support is also greater in those areas with highest impact. SSA requires increased investment in teacher support, testing and particularly ART if it is to achieve EFA. The situation for teachers in the Caribbean and East Asia is similar but on a smaller scale proportionate to the lower levels of infection and greater existing access to care and support.
Economic Impact of HIV and Antiretroviral Therapy on Education Supply in High Prevalence Regions
Risley, Claire L.; Drake, Lesley J.; Bundy, Donald A. P.
2012-01-01
Background We set out to estimate, for the three geographical regions with the highest HIV prevalence, (sub-Saharan Africa [SSA], the Caribbean and the Greater Mekong sub-region of East Asia), the human resource and economic impact of HIV on the supply of education from 2008 to 2015, the target date for the achievement of Education For All (EFA), contrasting the continuation of access to care, support and Antiretroviral therapy (ART) to the scenario of universal access. Methodology/Principal Findings A costed mathematical model of the impact of HIV and ART on teacher recruitment, mortality and absenteeism (Ed-SIDA) was run using best available data for 58 countries, and results aggregated by region. It was estimated that (1) The impact of HIV on teacher supply is sufficient to derail efforts to achieve EFA in several countries and universal access can mitigate this. (2) In SSA, the 2008 costs to education of HIV were about half of those estimated in 2002. Providing universal access for teachers in SSA is cost-effective on education returns alone and provides a return of $3.99 on the dollar. (3) The impacts on education in the hyperendemic countries in Southern Africa will continue to increase to 2015 from its 2008 level, already the highest in the world. (4) If treatment roll-out is successful, numbers of HIV positive teachers are set to increase in all the regions studied. Conclusions/Significance The return on investing in care and support is also greater in those areas with highest impact. SSA requires increased investment in teacher support, testing and particularly ART if it is to achieve EFA. The situation for teachers in the Caribbean and East Asia is similar but on a smaller scale proportionate to the lower levels of infection and greater existing access to care and support. PMID:23173030
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Letcher, Theodore
As the climate warms, the snow albedo feedback (SAF) will play a substantial role in shaping the climate response of mid-latitude mountain regions with transient snow cover. One such region is the Rocky Mountains of the western United States where large snow packs accumulate during the winter and persist throughout the spring. In this dissertation, the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) configured as a regional climate model is used to investigate the role of the SAF in determining the regional climate response to forced anthropogenic climate change. The regional effects of climate change are investigated by using the pseudo global warming (PGW) framework, which is an experimental configuration in a which a mean climate perturbation is added to the boundary forcing of a regional model, thus preserving the large-scale circulation entering the region through the model boundaries and isolating the mesoscale climate response. Using this framework, the impact of the SAF on the regional energetics and atmospheric dynamics is examined and quantified. Linear feedback analysis is used to quantify the strength of the SAF over the Headwaters region of the Colorado Rockies for a series of high-resolution PGW experiments. This technique is used to test sensitivity of the feedback strength to model resolution and land surface model. Over the Colorado Rockies, and integrated over the entire spring season, the SAF strength is largely insensitive to model resolution, however there are more substantial differences on the sub-seasonal (monthly) timescale. In contrast, the SAF strength over this region is very sensitive to choice of land surface model. These simulations are also used to investigate how spatial and diurnal variability in warming caused by the SAF influences the dynamics of thermally driven mountain-breeze circulations. It is shown that, the SAF causes stronger daytime mountain-breeze circulations by increasing the warming on the mountains slopes thus enhancing
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Schwarz, Nina, E-mail: nina.schwarz@ufz.de; Bauer, Annette, E-mail: annette.bauer@ufz.de; Haase, Dagmar, E-mail: dagmar.haase@ufz.d
2011-03-15
Local climate regulation by urban green areas is an important urban ecosystem service, as it reduces the extent of the urban heat island and therefore enhances quality of life. Local and regional planning policies can control land use changes in an urban region, which in turn alter local climate regulation. Thus, this paper describes a method for estimating the impacts of current land uses as well as local and regional planning policies on local climate regulation, using evapotranspiration and land surface emissivity as indicators. This method can be used by practitioners to evaluate their policies. An application of this methodmore » is demonstrated for the case study Leipzig (Germany). Results for six selected planning policies in Leipzig indicate their distinct impacts on climate regulation and especially the role of their spatial extent. The proposed method was found to easily produce a qualitative assessment of impacts of planning policies on climate regulation.« less
Mauter, Meagan S; Alvarez, Pedro J J; Burton, Allen; Cafaro, Diego C; Chen, Wei; Gregory, Kelvin B; Jiang, Guibin; Li, Qilin; Pittock, Jamie; Reible, Danny; Schnoor, Jerald L
2014-01-01
The unconventional fossil fuel industry is expected to expand dramatically in coming decades as conventional reserves wane. Minimizing the environmental impacts of this energy transition requires a contextualized understanding of the unique regional issues that shale gas development poses. This manuscript highlights the variation in regional water issues associated with shale gas development in the U.S. and the approaches of various states in mitigating these impacts. The manuscript also explores opportunities for emerging international shale plays to leverage the diverse experiences of U.S. states in formulating development strategies that minimize water-related impacts within their environmental, cultural, and political ecosystem.
The air quality and health impacts of domestic trans-boundary pollution in various regions of China.
Gu, Y; Yim, S H L
2016-12-01
Air pollution is one of the most pressing environmental problems in China. Literature has reported that outdoor air pollution leads to adverse health problems every year in China. Recent measurement studies found the important regional nature of particulates in China. Trans-boundary air pollution within China has yet to be fully understood. This study aimed to comprehensively understand the processes of domestic trans-boundary air pollution in China and to apportion the impacts of emissions in different regions on air quality and public health. We applied a state-of-the-art air quality model to simulate air quality in China and then adapted a form of integrated concentration-response function for China to estimate the resultant amount of premature mortality due to exposures to PM 2.5 . Our findings show that domestic trans-boundary impacts (TBI), on average, account for 27% of the total PM 2.5 in China. We estimated that outdoor air pollution caused ~870,000 (95% CI: 130,000-1500,000) premature mortalities in China in 2010, of which on average 18% are attributed to TBI. Among all the regions, North China is the largest contributor to TBI due to 41% of the health impacts of its emissions occurring in other regions. Taiwan (TW) is the smallest contributor to TBI occurring in China, contributing 2% of the national TBI, while TBI causes 22% of the premature mortalities due to outdoor air pollution in TW. Our findings pinpoint the significant impacts of TBI on public health in China, indicating the need for cross-region cooperation to mitigate the air quality impacts and the nation's resultant health problems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Regionalization of land-use impacts on streamflow using a network of paired catchments
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ochoa-Tocachi, Boris F.; Buytaert, Wouter; De Bièvre, Bert
2016-09-01
Quantifying the impact of land use and cover (LUC) change on catchment hydrological response is essential for land-use planning and management. Yet hydrologists are often not able to present consistent and reliable evidence to support such decision-making. The issue tends to be twofold: a scarcity of relevant observations, and the difficulty of regionalizing any existing observations. This study explores the potential of a paired catchment monitoring network to provide statistically robust, regionalized predictions of LUC change impact in an environment of high hydrological variability. We test the importance of LUC variables to explain hydrological responses and to improve regionalized predictions using 24 catchments distributed along the Tropical Andes. For this, we calculate first 50 physical catchment properties, and then select a subset based on correlation analysis. The reduced set is subsequently used to regionalize a selection of hydrological indices using multiple linear regression. Contrary to earlier studies, we find that incorporating LUC variables in the regional model structures increases significantly regression performance and predictive capacity for 66% of the indices. For the runoff ratio, baseflow index, and slope of the flow duration curve, the mean absolute error reduces by 53% and the variance of the residuals by 79%, on average. We attribute the explanatory capacity of LUC in the regional model to the pairwise monitoring setup, which increases the contrast of the land-use signal in the data set. As such, it may be a useful strategy to optimize data collection to support watershed management practices and improve decision-making in data-scarce regions.
Investigating Sustainability Impacts of Bioenergy Usage Within the Eisenwurzen Region in Austria
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Putzhuber, F.; Hasenauer, H.
2009-04-01
Within the past few years sustainability and bioenergy usage become a key term in emphasizing the relationship between economic progress and the protection of the environment. One key difficulty is the definition of criteria and indicators for assessing sustainability issues and their change over time. This work introduces methods to create linear parametric models of the sustainable impact issues relevant in the establishment of new bio-energetic heating systems. Our application example is the Eisenwurzen region in Austria. The total area covers 5743 km km² and includes 99 municipalities. A total of 11 impact issues covering the economic, social and environmental areas are proposed for developing the linear parametric models. The indicator selection for deriving the impact issues is based on public official data from 68 indicators, as well as stakeholder interviews and the impact assessment framework. In total we obtained 415 variables from the 99 municipalities to create the 68 indicators for the Local Administration Unit 2 (LAU2) over the last (if available) 25 years. The 68 indicators are on a relative scale to address the size differences of the municipalities. The idea of the analysis is to create linear models which derive 11 defined impact issues related to the establishment of new bio-energetic heating systems. Each analysis follows a strict statistical procedure based on (i) independent indicator selection, (ii) remove indicators with higher VIF value grater then 6, (iii) remove indicators with α higher than 0,05, (iv) possible linear transformation, (v) remove the non-significant indicators (p-value >0,05), (vi) model valuation, (vii) remove the out-lines plots and (viii) test of the normality distribution of the residual with a Kolmogorov- Smirnov test. The results suggest that for the 11 sustainable impact issues 21 of the 68 indicators are significant drives. The models revealed that it is possible to create tools for assessing impact issues in a
Economic Impact of the Metropolitan Community Colleges on the Kansas City Region. Final Report.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Manning, Sherry
This study assesses the economic impact of the Metropolitan Community Colleges (MCC) on the four-county region of metropolitan Kansas City, Missouri. The total economic impact is composed of a network of interactive cash flows between the colleges, business, government, and individuals, and may be derived by adding three distinct components:…
Climate Impacts Already Affect Every Region of the United States, Report Warns
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Showstack, Randy
2014-05-01
"Climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved firmly into the present," according to the third iteration of the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA), issued by the White House on 6 May. "The observed warming and other climatic changes are triggering wide-ranging impacts in every region of our country and throughout our economy," states the report, titled Climate Change Impacts in the United States, issued through the federal interagency U.S. Global Change Research Program.
Assessing Regional Economic Impacts of Recreation Travel from Limited Survey Data
Donald B.K. English; Jean-Claude Thill
1996-01-01
Regional economic impacts of public recreation facilities are caused by purchases made by households during trip production. Purchases are made near home, en route, or near the recreation site. Locations where en route purchases are made are particularly ill-defined. Surveys that gather trip expenditure data usually only collect home and site locations and travel...
Impacts of fire smoke plumes on regional air quality, 2006-2013.
Larsen, Alexandra E; Reich, Brian J; Ruminski, Mark; Rappold, Ana G
2017-12-29
Increases in the severity and frequency of large fires necessitate improved understanding of the influence of smoke on air quality and public health. The objective of this study is to estimate the effect of smoke from fires across the continental U.S. on regional air quality over an extended period of time. We use 2006-2013 data on ozone (O 3 ), fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), and PM 2.5 constituents from environmental monitoring sites to characterize regional air quality and satellite imagery data to identify plumes. Unhealthy levels of O 3 and PM 2.5 were, respectively, 3.3 and 2.5 times more likely to occur on plume days than on clear days. With a two-stage approach, we estimated the effect of plumes on pollutants, controlling for season, temperature, and within-site and between-site variability. Plumes were associated with an average increase of 2.6 p.p.b. (2.5, 2.7) in O 3 and 2.9 µg/m 3 (2.8, 3.0) in PM 2.5 nationwide, but the magnitude of effects varied by location. The largest impacts were observed across the southeast. High impacts on O 3 were also observed in densely populated urban areas at large distance from the fires throughout the southeast. Fire smoke substantially affects regional air quality and accounts for a disproportionate number of unhealthy days.
Regional and Global Impacts of Megacity Air Pollution in China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Renyi
2014-05-01
Air quality has deteriorated in many megacities of China because of their rapid economic developments. For example, as the world's second largest economy, China has experienced severe air pollution, with aerosols or fine particulate matter less than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) reaching unprecedented high levels across many cities in recent winters. In addition to the impacts of aerosols on air chemistry, visibility, and human health, intense aerosol pollution is believed to exert profound impacts on the regional and global atmosphere and climate. In the first part of the talk, perspectives are provided on formation and transformation of haze in China. In the second part the long-term impacts of aerosols on precipitation and lightning over a megacity area in China will be presented, on the basis of atmospheric observations and simulations using a cloud-resolving WRF model. Our results reveal that elevated aerosol loading suppresses light and moderate precipitation, but enhances heavy precipitation. Also, we demonstrate climatically modulated mid-latitude cyclones by Asian pollution over past three decades, using a novel hierarchical modeling approach and observational analysis. Our results unambiguously reveal a large impact of the Asian pollutant outflows on the global general circulation and climate.
Major Impact of Fleet Renewal Over Airports Located in the Most Important Region of Brazil
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Maters, Rafael Waltz; deRoodeTorres, Roberta; Santo, Respicio A. Espirito, Jr.
2003-01-01
The present article discusses and analyses the major impacts of the Brazilian carriers fleet renewal regarding Brazilian airport infrastructure in the most important region of the country, the Southeast (SE). A brief historical overview of the country's airline fleet will be presented, demonstrating the need for its renewal (m fact, Brazilian carriers started a major fleet renewal program m the last five years), while analyzing the periods in which a new breed of aircraft was put into service by the major carriers operating in the SE region. The trend of operating the classic regional jets plus the forthcoming entry into service of the "large regional jets" (LRJ, 70-115 seaters) in several point-to-point routes are presented along with the country's carriers" reality of operating these former aircraft in several high-capacity and medium-range routes. The article will focus on the ability of four of the major Southeast's airports to cope with the fleet modernization, mainly due to the fact that the region studied is the most socioeconomic developed, by far, with the largest demand for air transportation, thus making the impacts much more perceptible for the communities and the airport management involved. With the emergence of these impacts, several new projects and investments are being discussed and pushed forward, despite budgetary constrains being a reality in almost every Brazilian city, even in the SE region. In view of this, the paper presents how the general planning could be carried out in order to adapt the airports' infrastructures in function of the proposed (and in some cases, necessary) fleet renewal. Ultimately, we will present the present picture and two future scenarios m order to determine the level of service in the existent passenger terminal facilities in the wake of the possible operation of several new aircraft. Keywords: Airline fleet planning, Airport planning, Regional development, Regional Jets.
Kripke, Katharine; Vazzano, Andrea; Kirungi, William; Musinguzi, Joshua; Opio, Alex; Ssempebwa, Rhobbinah; Nakawunde, Susan; Kyobutungi, Sheila; Akao, Juliet N; Magala, Fred; Mwidu, George; Castor, Delivette; Njeuhmeli, Emmanuel
2016-01-01
Uganda aims to provide safe male circumcision (SMC) to 80% of men ages 15-49 by 2016. To date, only 2 million men have received SMC of the 4.2 million men required. In response to age and regional trends in SMC uptake, the country sought to re-examine its targets with respect to age and subnational region, to assess the program's progress, and to refine the implementation approach. The Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool, Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0), was used in conjunction with incidence projections from the Spectrum/AIDS Impact Module (AIM) to conduct this analysis. Population, births, deaths, and HIV incidence and prevalence were used to populate the model. Baseline male circumcision prevalence was derived from the 2011 AIDS Indicator Survey. Uganda can achieve the most immediate impact on HIV incidence by circumcising men ages 20-34. This group will also require the fewest circumcisions for each HIV infection averted. Focusing on men ages 10-19 will offer the greatest impact over a 15-year period, while focusing on men ages 15-34 offers the most cost-effective strategy over the same period. A regional analysis showed little variation in cost-effectiveness of scaling up SMC across eight regions. Scale-up is cost-saving in all regions. There is geographic variability in program progress, highlighting two regions with low baseline rates of circumcision where additional efforts will be needed. Focusing SMC efforts on specific age groups and regions may help to accelerate Uganda's SMC program progress. Policy makers in Uganda have already used model outputs in planning efforts, proposing males ages 10-34 as a priority group for SMC in the 2014 application to the Global Fund's new funding model. As scale-up continues, the country should also consider a greater effort to expand SMC in regions with low MC prevalence.
Evaluating Impacts of Land Use/Land Cover Change on Water Resources in Semiarid Regions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Scanlon, B. R.; Faunt, C. C.; Pool, D. R.; Reedy, R. C.
2017-12-01
Land use/land cover (LU/LC) changes play an integral role in water resources by controlling the partitioning of water at the land surface. Here we evaluate impacts of changing LU/LC on water resources in response to climate variation and change and land use change related to agriculture using data from semiarid regions in the southwestern U.S. Land cover changes in response to climate can amplify or dampen climate impacts on water resources. Changes from wet Pleistocene to much drier Holocene climate resulted in expansion of perennial vegetation, amplifying climate change impacts on water resources by reducing groundwater recharge as shown in soil profiles in the southwestern U.S.. In contrast, vegetation response to climate extremes, including droughts and floods, dampen impacts of these extremes on water resources, as shown by water budget monitoring in the Mojave Desert. Agriculture often involves changes from native perennial vegetation to annual crops increasing groundwater recharge in many semiarid regions. Irrigation based on conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater increases water resource availability, as shown in the Central Valley of California and in southern Arizona. Surface water irrigation in these regions is enhanced by water transported from more humid settings through extensive pipelines. These projects have reversed long-term declining groundwater trends in some regions. While irrigation design has often focused on increased efficiency, "more crop per drop", optimal water resource management may benefit more from inefficient (e.g. flood irrigation) surface-water irrigation combined with efficient (e.g. subsurface drip) irrigation to maximize groundwater recharge, as seen in parts of the Central Valley. Flood irrigation of perennial crops, such as almonds and vineyards, during winter is being considered in the Central Valley to enhance groundwater recharge. Managed aquifer recharge can be considered a special case of conjunctive use of
Impacts of urbanization on regional nonpoint source pollution: case study for Beijing, China.
Zhi, Xiaosha; Chen, Lei; Shen, Zhenyao
2018-04-01
Due to limits on available data, the effects of urban sprawl on regional nonpoint source pollution (NPS) have not been investigated over long time periods. In this paper, the characteristics of urban sprawl from 1999 to 2014 in Beijing were explored by analyzing historical land-use data. The Event Mean Concentration data have been collected from all available references, which were used to estimate the variation in urban NPSs. Moreover, the impacts of variation in urban sprawl on regional NPSs were qualified. The results indicated that the urbanization process showed different influences on pollutants, while COD and TN were identified as key NPS pollutants. Residential areas contributed more NPS pollutants than did roads, which played a tremendous role in the control of urban NPS. The results also suggested in part that the impact of urban sprawl on the variation of COD decreased while TN increased in Beijing during the study period. These results would provide insight into the impacts of urban sprawl on NPS variation over a long period, as well as the reference for reasonable urban planning directives.
Projecting Heat-Related Mortality Impacts Under a Changing Climate in the New York City Region
Knowlton, Kim; Lynn, Barry; Goldberg, Richard A.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Hogrefe, Christian; Rosenthal, Joyce Klein; Kinney, Patrick L.
2007-01-01
Objectives. We sought to project future impacts of climate change on summer heat-related premature deaths in the New York City metropolitan region. Methods. Current and future climates were simulated over the northeastern United States with a global-to-regional climate modeling system. Summer heat-related premature deaths in the 1990s and 2050s were estimated by using a range of scenarios and approaches to modeling acclimatization (e.g., increased use of air conditioning, gradual physiological adaptation). Results. Projected regional increases in heat-related premature mortality by the 2050s ranged from 47% to 95%, with a mean 70% increase compared with the 1990s. Acclimatization effects reduced regional increases in summer heat-related premature mortality by about 25%. Local impacts varied considerably across the region, with urban counties showing greater numbers of deaths and smaller percentage increases than less-urbanized counties. Conclusions. Although considerable uncertainty exists in climate forecasts and future health vulnerability, the range of projections we developed suggests that by midcentury, acclimatization may not completely mitigate the effects of climate change in the New York City metropolitan region, which would result in an overall net increase in heat-related premature mortality. PMID:17901433
Impacts of crop growth dynamics on soil quality at the regional scale
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gobin, Anne
2014-05-01
Agricultural land use and in particular crop growth dynamics can greatly affect soil quality. Both the amount of soil lost from erosion by water and soil organic matter are key indicators for soil quality. The aim was to develop a modelling framework for quantifying the impacts of crop growth dynamics on soil quality at the regional scale with test case Flanders. A framework for modelling the impacts of crop growth on soil erosion and soil organic matter was developed by coupling the dynamic crop cover model REGCROP (Gobin, 2010) to the PESERA soil erosion model (Kirkby et al., 2009) and to the RothC carbon model (Coleman and Jenkinson, 1999). All three models are process-based, spatially distributed and intended as a regional diagnostic tool. A geo-database was constructed covering 10 years of crop rotation in Flanders using the IACS parcel registration (Integrated Administration and Control System). Crop allometric models were developed from variety trials to calculate crop residues for common crops in Flanders and subsequently derive stable organic matter fluxes to the soil. Results indicate that crop growth dynamics and crop rotations influence soil quality for a very large percentage. soil erosion mainly occurs in the southern part of Flanders, where silty to loamy soils and a hilly topography are responsible for soil loss rates of up to 40 t/ha. Parcels under maize, sugar beet and potatoes are most vulnerable to soil erosion. Crop residues of grain maize and winter wheat followed by catch crops contribute most to the total carbon sequestered in agricultural soils. For the same rotations carbon sequestration is highest on clay soils and lowest on sandy soils. This implies that agricultural policies that impact on agricultural land management influence soil quality for a large percentage. The coupled REGCROP-PESERA-ROTHC model allows for quantifying the impact of seasonal and year-to-year crop growth dynamics on soil quality. When coupled to a multi-annual crop
Regional assessment of Climate change impacts in the Mediterranean: the CIRCE project
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Iglesias, A.
2011-12-01
The CIRCE project has developed for the first time an assessment of the climate change impacts in the Mediterranean area. The objectives of the project are: to predict and to quantify physical impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean area; to evaluate the consequences of climate change for the society and the economy of the populations located in the Mediterranean area; to develop an integrated approach to understand combined effects of climate change; and to identify adaptation and mitigation strategies in collaboration with regional stakeholders. The CIRCE Project, coordinated by the Instituto Nazionale di Geofisca e Vulcanologia, started on 1st April 2007 and ended in a policy conference in Rome on June 2011. CIRCE involves 64 partners from Europe, Middle East and North Africa working together to evaluate the best strategies of adaptation to the climate change in the Mediterranean basin. CIRCE wants to understand and to explain how climate will change in the Mediterranean area bringing together the natural sciences community and social community in a new integrated and comprehensive way. The project has investigated how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how the radiative properties of the atmosphere and the radiative fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle. Recent observed modifications in the climate variables and detected trends will be compared. The economic and social consequences of climate change are evaluated by analysing direct impacts on migration, tourism and energy markets together with indirect impacts on the economic system. CIRCE has produced results about the consequences on agriculture, forests and ecosystems, human health and air quality. The variability of extreme events in the future scenario and their impacts is also assessed. A rigorous common framework, including a set of quantitative indicators developed specifically for the Mediterranean environment was be developed
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zavodsky, Bradley; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Jedlovec, Gary
2013-01-01
Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Retrieved profiles from AIRS contain much of the information that is contained in the radiances and may be able to reveal reasons for this reduced impact. Assimilating AIRS retrieved profiles in an identical analysis configuration to the radiances, tracking the quantity and quality of the assimilated data in each technique, and examining analysis increments and forecast impact from each data type can yield clues as to the reasons for the reduced impact. By doing this with regional scale models individual synoptic features (and the impact of AIRS on these features) can be more easily tracked. This project examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing operational techniques used for AIRS radiances and research techniques used for AIRS retrieved profiles. Parallel versions of a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) are run to examine the impact AIRS radiances and retrieved profiles. Statistical evaluation of 6 weeks of forecast runs will be compared along with preliminary results of in-depth investigations for select case comparing the analysis increments in partly cloudy regions and short-term forecast impacts.
Quantification of Road Network Vulnerability and Traffic Impacts to Regional Landslide Hazards.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Postance, Benjamin; Hillier, John; Dixon, Neil; Dijkstra, Tom
2015-04-01
Slope instability represents a prevalent hazard to transport networks. In the UK regional road networks are frequently disrupted by multiple slope failures triggered during intense precipitation events; primarily due to a degree of regional homogeneity of slope materials, geomorphology and weather conditions. It is of interest to examine how different locations and combinations of slope failure impact road networks, particularly in the context of projected climate change and a 40% increase in UK road demand by 2040. In this study an extensive number (>50 000) of multiple failure event scenarios are simulated within a dynamic micro simulation to assess traffic impacts during peak flow (7 - 10 AM). Possible failure locations are selected within the county of Gloucestershire (3150 km2) using historic failure sites and British Geological Survey GeoSure data. Initial investigations employ a multiple linear regression analyses to consider the severity of traffic impacts, as measured by time, in respect of spatial and topographical network characteristics including connectivity, density and capacity in proximity to failure sites; the network distance between disruptions in multiple failure scenarios is used to consider the effects of spatial clustering. The UK Department of Transport road travel demand and UKCP09 weather projection data to 2080 provide a suitable basis for traffic simulations and probabilistic slope stability assessments. Future work will thus focus on the development of a catastrophe risk model to simulate traffic impacts under various narratives of future travel demand and slope instability under climatic change. The results of this investigation shall contribute to the understanding of road network vulnerabilities and traffic impacts from climate driven slope hazards.
Argula, Rahul G; Strange, Charlie; Ramakrishnan, Viswanathan; Goldin, Jonathan
2013-11-01
Advanced heterogeneous emphysema with hyperinflation impacts exercise tolerance in COPD. Bronchoscopic lung volume reduction using Zephyr endobronchial valves (EBVs) has been shown to improve lung function in patients with heterogeneous emphysema. It is unclear whether the target lobe perfusion of patients receiving EBV therapy impacts exercise tolerance as measured by the 6-min walk test distance (6MWTD). We performed a retrospective analysis on the treatment group of the Endobronchial Valve for Emphysema Palliation Trial (VENT) to evaluate the impact of perfusion, measured by 99mTc-MAA-perfusion scintigraphy, on the 6-month improvement in 6MWTD. A mixed-model analysis was performed for the treatment outcome, adjusting for other variables such as age, target lobe position, fissure integrity, BMI, sex, destruction score, and lobar exclusion. Dichotomized at the median, of the 169 patients who received EBV therapy, 88 had a low target lobe regional perfusion and 81 had high target lobe regional perfusion at baseline. Patients with a low target lobe regional perfusion had a significant improvement in 6MWTD when compared with those with a high baseline target lobe regional perfusion (30.24 m vs 3.72 m, P = .03). Shifts in perfusion after EBV therapy occurred only in patients with high baseline perfusion and did not correlate with improved 6MWTD. Patients having heterogeneous emphysema with a low baseline target lobe regional perfusion benefit from EBV therapy, independent of the degree of target lobe destruction. This effect is attenuated if the EBV therapy is not occlusive. Characterization of baseline perfusion may enhance clinical results of patients with emphysema undergoing EBV therapy. ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT00000606; URL: www.clincialtrials.gov.
Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele
2014-01-01
The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions.
Loewen, Charlie J G; Vinebrooke, Rolf D
2016-10-01
Species diversity is often an implicit source of biological insurance for communities against the impacts of novel perturbations, such as the introduction of an invasive species. High environmental heterogeneity (e.g., a mountainous gradient) is expected to beget greater regional species diversity and variation in functional traits related to environmental tolerances. Thus, heterogeneous metacommunities are expected to provide more tolerant colonists that buffer stressed local communities in the absence of dispersal limitation. We tested the hypothesis that importation of a regional zooplankton pool assembled from a diverse array of lakes and ponds lessens the impacts of a novel predator on local species-poor alpine communities by increasing response diversity (i.e., diversity of tolerances to environmental change) as mediated by variation in functional traits related to predator evasion. We also tested whether impacts varied with temperature, as warming may modify (e.g., dampen or amplify) invasion effects. An eight-week factorial experiment ([fishless vs. introduced Oncorhynchus mykiss (rainbow trout)] × [ambient temperature vs. heated] × [local vs. local + regional species pool]) was conducted using 32 1,000-L mesocosms. Associations between experimental treatments and species functional traits were tested by R-mode linked to Q-mode (RLQ) and fourth-corner analyses. Although the introduced predator suppressed local species richness and community biomass, colonization by several montane zooplankters reversed these negative effects, resulting in increased species diversity and production. Invasion resistance was unaffected by higher temperatures, which failed to elicit any significance impacts on the community. We discovered that the smaller body sizes of imported species drove functional overcompensation (i.e., increased production) in invaded communities. The observed ecological surprise showed how regionally sourced biodiversity from a highly
Study on regional air quality impact from a chemical plant emergency shutdown.
Ge, Sijie; Wang, Sujing; Xu, Qiang; Ho, Thomas
2018-06-01
Emergency shutdowns of chemical plants (ESCP) inevitably generate intensive and huge amounts of VOCs and NO x emissions through flaring that can cause highly localized and transient air pollution events with elevated ozone concentrations. However, quantitative studies of regional ozone impact due to ESCP, in terms of how ESCP would affect and to what extent ESCP could impact, are still lacking. This paper reports a systematic study on regional air quality impact from an olefin plant emergency shutdown due to the sudden failure of its cracked gas compressor (CGC). It demonstrates that emergency shutdown may cause significant ozone increment subject to different factors such as the starting time of emergency shutdown, flare destruction and removal efficiency (DRE) and plant location. In our studied case, the 8-hr ozone increment ranges from 0.4 to 3.3 ppb under different starting time, from 3.3 to 24.8 ppb under different DRE, and from 1.6 to 3.3 ppb under different locations. The results enable us to understand how and to what extent emergency operating activities of the chemical process will affect local air quality, which might be beneficial for decision makings on emergency air-quality response and control in the future. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Impacts on regional climate of an afforestation scenario under a +2°C global warming climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Strada, Susanna; Noblet-Ducoudré Nathalie, de; Marc, Stéfanon
2017-04-01
Through surface-atmosphere interactions (SAI), land-use and land-cover changes (LULCCs) alter atmospheric conditions with effects on climate at different scales, from local/regional (a few ten kilometres) (Pielke et al., 2011) to global scales (a few hundred kilometres) (Mahmood et al., 2014). Focusing on the regional scale, in the context of climate change, LULCCs may either enhance or dampen climate impacts via changes in SAI they may initiate. Those LULCC-driven atmospheric impacts could in turn influence e.g. the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, with consequences on mitigation and adaptation strategies. Despite LULCC impacts on regional climate are largely discussed in the literature, in Europe information is missing on LULCC impacts under future climate conditions on a country scale (Galos et al., 2015). The latest COPs have urged the scientific community to explore the impacts of reduced global warming (1.5°C to a +2°C) on the Earth system. LULCCs will be one major tool to achieve such targets. In this framework, we investigate impacts on regional climate of a modified landscape under a +2°C climatic scenario. To this purpose, we performed sensitivity studies over western Europe with a fully coupled land-atmosphere regional climate model, WRF-ORCHIDEE (Drobinski et al., 2012, Stefanon et al., 2014). A +2°C scenario was selected among those proposed by the "Impact2C" project (Vautard et al., 2014), and the afforested land-cover scenario proposed in the RCP4.5 is prescribed. We have chosen the maximum extent of forest RCP4.5 simulates for Europe at the end of the 21st century. WRF-ORCHIDEE is fed with boundary atmospheric conditions from the global climate model LMDZ for PD (1971-2000) and the +2°C warming period for the LMDZ model (2028-2057). Preliminary results over the target domain show that, under a +2°C global warming scenario, afforestation contributes by 2% to the total warming due to both climate change and LULCCs. During summer, the
The urban impact on the regional climate of Dresden
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sändig, B.; Renner, E.
2010-09-01
The principal objective of this research is to clarify the impact of urban elements such as buildings and streets on the regional climate and air quality in the framework of the BMBF-project "Regionales Klimaanpassungsprogramm f¨ur die Modellregion Dresden" (REGKLAM). Drawing on the example of Dresden this work explores how the presence of cities influences the atmospheric flow and the characteristics of the boundary layer. Persuing this target, an urban surface exchange parameterisation module (Martilli et al., 2002) was implemented in a high resolution version of the COSMO model, the forecast model of the German Weather Service (DWD). Using a mesoscale model for this regional climate study implies the advantage of embedding the focused area in a realistic large scale situation via downscaling by means of one way nesting and allows to simulate the urban impact for different IPCC-szenarios. The urban module is based on the assumption that a city could be represented by a bunch of "urban classes". Each urban class is characterised by specific properties such as typical street directions or probability of finding a building in a special height. Based on urban structure data of Dresden (vector shape-files containing the outlines of all buildings and the respective heights) an automated method of extracting the relevant geometrical input parameters for the urban module was developed. By means of this model setup we performed case studies, in which we investigate the interactions between the city structure and the meteorological variables with regard to special synoptical situations such as the Bohemian wind, a typical flow pattern of cold air, sourced from the Bohemian Basin, in the Elbe Valley, which acts then like a wind channel. Another focal point is formed by the investigation of different types of artificial cities ranging from densely builtup areas to suburban areas in order to illuminating the impact of the city type on the dynamical and thermal properties of
Ganymede - Mixture of Terrains and Large Impact Crater in Uruk Sulcus Region
1997-09-07
A mixture of terrains studded with a large impact crater is shown in this view of the Uruk Sulcus region of Jupiter moon Ganymede taken by NASA Galileo spacecraft during its first flyby of the planet-sized moon on June 27, 1996. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA00280
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thorne, James H.; Girvetz, Evan H.; McCoy, Michael C.
2009-05-01
This study presents a GIS-based database framework used to assess aggregate terrestrial habitat impacts from multiple highway construction projects in California, USA. Transportation planners need such impact assessment tools to effectively address additive biological mitigation obligations. Such assessments can reduce costly delays due to protracted environmental review. This project incorporated the best available statewide natural resource data into early project planning and preliminary environmental assessments for single and multiple highway construction projects, and provides an assessment of the 10-year state-wide mitigation obligations for the California Department of Transportation. Incorporation of these assessments will facilitate early and more strategic identification of mitigation opportunities, for single-project and regional mitigation efforts. The data architecture format uses eight spatial scales: six nested watersheds, counties, and transportation planning districts, which were intersected. This resulted in 8058 map planning units statewide, which were used to summarize all subsequent analyses. Range maps and georeferenced locations of federally and state-listed plants and animals and a 55-class landcover map were spatially intersected with the planning units and the buffered spatial footprint of 967 funded projects. Projected impacts were summarized and output to the database. Queries written in the database can sum expected impacts and provide summaries by individual construction project, or by watershed, county, transportation district or highway. The data architecture allows easy incorporation of new information and results in a tool usable without GIS by a wide variety of agency biologists and planners. The data architecture format would be useful for other types of regional planning.
Thorne, James H; Girvetz, Evan H; McCoy, Michael C
2009-05-01
This study presents a GIS-based database framework used to assess aggregate terrestrial habitat impacts from multiple highway construction projects in California, USA. Transportation planners need such impact assessment tools to effectively address additive biological mitigation obligations. Such assessments can reduce costly delays due to protracted environmental review. This project incorporated the best available statewide natural resource data into early project planning and preliminary environmental assessments for single and multiple highway construction projects, and provides an assessment of the 10-year state-wide mitigation obligations for the California Department of Transportation. Incorporation of these assessments will facilitate early and more strategic identification of mitigation opportunities, for single-project and regional mitigation efforts. The data architecture format uses eight spatial scales: six nested watersheds, counties, and transportation planning districts, which were intersected. This resulted in 8058 map planning units statewide, which were used to summarize all subsequent analyses. Range maps and georeferenced locations of federally and state-listed plants and animals and a 55-class landcover map were spatially intersected with the planning units and the buffered spatial footprint of 967 funded projects. Projected impacts were summarized and output to the database. Queries written in the database can sum expected impacts and provide summaries by individual construction project, or by watershed, county, transportation district or highway. The data architecture allows easy incorporation of new information and results in a tool usable without GIS by a wide variety of agency biologists and planners. The data architecture format would be useful for other types of regional planning.
Characteristics of Radiation Emitted by Disturbed Region After Meteoroid Impact Onto Mars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kosarev, I. B.; Losseva, T. V.
2001-12-01
Performing spectroscopic measurements during impacts onto Mars we obtain the unique possibility of investigations of the structure and physical properties of the Martian surface and atmosphere, their chemical composition. Many values for various physical parameters may be derived from remote measurements of the radiation emitted during impacts. Radiation absorbed by the surface leads to the losses of volatiles. A thin layer of the Martian air adjacent to the surface being heated may drastically change the gasdynamic flow behind the shock wave due to the 'thermal layer effect". Detection of radiation impulses may be used for searches of fresh impact sites.We have calculated spectral opacity tables for some recognized types of cosmic H-, LL-, C1-chondrites and cometary matter bodies. The chemical composition taken into account in those calculations is based on the extended system of 16 chemical elements: Fe-O-Mg-Si-C-H-S-Al-Ca-Na-K-N-Cr-Mn-Ti-Ni. Similar spectral opacity tables of the Martian soil vapor based on chemical rock analyses of McSween et al., (JGR, V.104E, 8679, 1999) were also generated. A 3D multifrequency radiation transfer code was used to obtain integral and spectral characteristics and angular distributions of radiation emitted by the domain disturbed by the cosmic body impact.We have used gasdynamic parameter distributions after the vertical impacts of 1-100 m radii stony projectiles striking the Martian surface at the velocities of 11-20 km/s obtained by Nemtchinov et al. (AGU Fall Meeting 2001,abstract). The emitted radiation is essentially nonisotropic. To understand what part of disturbed region emits we analyze the spectral directionality diagrams depended on the wavelength range. Some features of the directionality aspect of emitted radiation are connected with the shielding action of dust curtain around the hot ascending cloud. The maximum radiation corresponds to visible and infrared ranges at the onset of impact impulses. The diagrams in
Toomey, Patricia; Lovato, Chris Y; Hanlon, Neil; Poole, Gary; Bates, Joanna
2013-06-01
To describe community leaders' perceptions regarding the impact of a fully distributed undergraduate medical education program on a small, medically underserved host community. The authors conducted semistructured interviews in 2007 with 23 community leaders representing, collectively, the education, health, economic, media, and political sectors. They reinterviewed six participants from a pilot study (2005) and recruited new participants using purposeful and snowball sampling. The authors employed analytic induction to organize content thematically, using the sectors as a framework, and they used open coding to identify new themes. The authors reanalyzed transcripts to identify program outcomes (e.g., increased research capacity) and construct a list of quantifiable indicators (e.g., number of grants and publications). Participants reported their perspectives on the current and anticipated impact of the program on education, health services, the economy, media, and politics. Perceptions of impact were overwhelmingly positive (e.g., increased physician recruitment), though some were negative (e.g., strains on health resources). The authors identified new outcomes and confirmed outcomes described in 2005. They identified 16 quantifiable indicators of impact, which they judged to be plausible and measureable. Participants perceive that the regional undergraduate medical education program in their community has broad, local impacts. Findings suggest that early observed outcomes have been maintained and may be expanding. Results may be applicable to medical education programs with distributed or regional sites in similar rural, remote, and/or underserved regions. The areas of impact, outcomes, and quantifiable indicators identified will be of interest to future researchers and evaluators.
Regional impacts of oil and gas development on ozone formation in the western United States.
Rodriguez, Marco A; Barna, Michael G; Moore, Tom
2009-09-01
The Intermountain West is currently experiencing increased growth in oil and gas production, which has the potential to affect the visibility and air quality of various Class I areas in the region. The following work presents an analysis of these impacts using the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx). CAMx is a state-of-the-science, "one-atmosphere" Eulerian photochemical dispersion model that has been widely used in the assessment of gaseous and particulate air pollution (ozone, fine [PM2.5], and coarse [PM10] particulate matter). Meteorology and emissions inventories developed by the Western Regional Air Partnership Regional Modeling Center for regional haze analysis and planning are used to establish an ozone baseline simulation for the year 2002. The predicted range of values for ozone in the national parks and other Class I areas in the western United States is then evaluated with available observations from the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET). This evaluation demonstrates the model's suitability for subsequent planning, sensitivity, and emissions control strategy modeling. Once the ozone baseline simulation has been established, an analysis of the model results is performed to investigate the regional impacts of oil and gas development on the ozone concentrations that affect the air quality of Class I areas. Results indicate that the maximum 8-hr ozone enhancement from oil and gas (9.6 parts per billion [ppb]) could affect southwestern Colorado and northwestern New Mexico. Class I areas in this region that are likely to be impacted by increased ozone include Mesa Verde National Park and Weminuche Wilderness Area in Colorado and San Pedro Parks Wilderness Area, Bandelier Wilderness Area, Pecos Wilderness Area, and Wheeler Peak Wilderness Area in New Mexico.
Ault, Andrew P; Moore, Meagan J; Furutani, Hiroshi; Prather, Kimberly A
2009-05-15
Oceangoing ships emit an estimated 1.2-1.6 million metric tons (Tg) of PM10 per year and represent a significant source of air pollution to coastal communities. As shown herein, ship and other emissions near the Los Angeles and Long Beach Port region strongly influence air pollution levels in the San Diego area. During time periods with regional transport, atmospheric aerosol measurements in La Jolla, California show an increase in 0.5-1 microm sized single particles with unique signatures including soot, metals (i.e., vanadium, iron, and nickel), sulfate, and nitrate. These particles are attributed to primary emissions from residual oil sourcessuch as ships and refineries, as well as traffic in the port region, and secondary processing during transport. During regional transport events, particulate matter concentrations were 2-4 times higher than typical average concentrations from local sources, indicating the health, environmental, and climate impacts from these emission sources must be taken into consideration in the San Diego region. Unless significant regulations are imposed on shipping-related activities, these emission sources will become even more important to California air quality as cars and truck emissions undergo further regulations and residual oil sources such as shipping continue to expand.
Ensemble simulations to study the impact of land use change of Atlanta to regional climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, P.; Hu, Y.; Stone, B.; Vargo, J.; Nenes, A.; Russell, A.; Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A.
2012-12-01
Studies show that urban areas may be the "first responders" to climate change (Rosenzweig et al., 2010). Of particular interest is the potential increased temperatures in urban areas, due to use of structures and surfaces that increase local heating, and how that may impact health, air quality and other environmental factors. In response, interest has grown as to how the modification of land use in urban areas, in order to mitigate the adverse effects of urbanization can serve to reduce local temperatures, and how climate is impacted more regionally. Studies have been conducted to investigate the impact of land use change on local or regional climate by dynamic downscaling using regional climate models (RCMs), the boundary conditions (BCs) and initial conditions (ICs) of which result from coarser-resolution reanalysis data or general circulation models (GCMs). However, few studies have focused on demonstrating whether the land use change in local areas significantly impacts the climate of the larger region of the domain, and the spatial scale of the impact from urban-scale changes. This work investigated the significance of the impact of land use change in the Atlanta city area on different scales, using a range of modeling resolutions, including the contiguous US (with 36km resolution), the southeastern US (with 12km resolution) and the state of Georgia (with 4km resolution). We used WRF version 3.1.1 with and ran continuous from June to August of a simulated year 2050, driven by GISS ModelE with inputs corresponding to RCP4.5. During the simulation, spectral nudging is used in the 36km resolution domain to maintain the climate patterns with scales larger than 2000km. Two-way nesting is also used in order to take into account the feedback of nesting domains across model domains. Two land use cases over the Atlanta city are chosen. For the base case, most of the urban area of Atlanta is covered with forest; while for the second, "impervious" case, all the urban
An observational and modeling study of the regional impacts of climate variability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Horton, Radley M.
Climate variability has large impacts on humans and their agricultural systems. Farmers are at the center of this agricultural network, but it is often agricultural planners---regional planners, extension agents, commodity groups and cooperatives---that translate climate information for users. Global climate models (GCMs) are a leading tool for understanding and predicting climate and climate change. Armed with climate projections and forecasts, agricultural planners adapt their decision-making to optimize outcomes. This thesis explores what GCMs can, and cannot, tell us about climate variability and change at regional scales. The question is important, since high-quality regional climate projections could assist farmers and regional planners in key management decisions, contributing to better agricultural outcomes. To answer these questions, climate variability and its regional impacts are explored in observations and models for the current and future climate. The goals are to identify impacts of observed variability, assess model simulation of variability, and explore how climate variability and its impacts may change under enhanced greenhouse warming. Chapter One explores how well Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) atmospheric models, forced by historical sea surface temperatures (SST), simulate climatology and large-scale features during the exceptionally strong 1997--1999 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Reasonable performance in this 'proof of concept' test is considered a minimum requirement for further study of variability in models. All model versions produce appropriate local changes with ENSO, indicating that with correct ocean temperatures these versions are capable of simulating the large-scale effects of ENSO around the globe. A high vertical resolution model (VHR) provides the best simulation. Evidence is also presented that SST anomalies outside the tropical Pacific may play a key role in generating remote teleconnections even
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Alaku, O.
1985-06-01
Data on birth weight and age at weaning for 1,092 (609 indigenous Balami and 483 imported Sudan Desert) sheep born from 1975 to 1979 in a Government farm near Maiduguri were analysed to study the influence of season on birth weight and age at weaning in sheep reared in the sahel region of Northeastern Nigeria. The suitability of the Sudan Desert for replacing or upgrading the indigenous Balami was considered. Season, breed, sex and type of birth significantly (P<0.001) influenced birth weight, age at weaning and the average daily gain from birth to weaning of lambs. Heaviest lambs were born during the rainy season-June August. Birth weight was lowest during the dry hot season. Balami lambs were heavier at birth and were weaned earlier with greater average daily gain than the Sudan Desert (P<0.001). Ram lambs were heavier at birth and had greater daily gain than the ewes (P<0.001). Also single-born lambs were heavier at birth and were weaned earlier (P<0.001) than twins. Twining rate in Balami was almost double that in the Sudanese. Survival tended to be greater in Sudanese than in Balami. Birth, twining and survival rates were highest for the dry cold season-born lambs. The dry cold season seems the best lambing season here. In all, the local Balami proved far superior in almost all traits considered. The use of the Sudan Desert here is definitely not econmically justifiable or rational.
The Study of Impacts of Water Transferring From Wet Regions To Dry Regions In Iran
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Motiee-Homayoun, Dr.; Ghomashchi, Dr.
Iran, with a very diverse ecology and different climate has been classified as a dry- semidry region. Iran's annual average of rain-fall is about 250 mm, while this figure is more than 1000 mm in north and less than 100 mm in the south of the country. Overall, Iran's water resources are low. Rapid population growth, economic growth together with significant urban development, in recent decades, has led to underestimate high demands for water. Therefore, water shortage has been considered more obviously. Such an important scare is rather serious in central and eastern regions of the country. This problem has been determined as a serious challenge for Iran's government and national water authorities, in particular. Although, drinking water supply is only 6 percent of total water resources, due to direct socio-political impacts, drinking water supply, in both quality and quantity, is more serious and important than agricultural water demands. Accordingly, for the following reasons: 1) Desperation and diversity of geographical conditions of urban areas 2) Low access to underground water 3) Inadequate quality surface water supply Difficulties and the costs of supplying urban water in Iran have been sharply increased. Presently, due to unconstrained consuming underground water and negative balance in most under ground resources of the country, more specifically in central and eastern regions, water supply from groundwater resources is very risky and misleading. Furthermore, other reason such as rapid urban population growth and changes in people's every day life and their consumption patterns increase both water consumption and waste water in the circumstances of inadequate sewage systems, make a vast source of pollution for water resources. Due to the influence of extended See (Salty) water, in southern provinces, near to Persian Gulf, accessibility to fresh water is rather difficult and in many cases only after tens of kilometers far from the see, fresh water could be
Caroline Patrick-Birdwell; Sergio Avila-Villegas; Jenny Neeley; Louise Misztal
2013-01-01
In this project we mapped the different types of border barriers, identified impacts of border infrastructure on public and private lands and conducted spatial analyses within the approximately 200 miles of international border in the Sky Island region. The Sky Island region, bisected by the U.S.-Mexico border, is critically important for its biodiversity and...
Disturbance to desert soil ecosystems contributes to dust-mediated impacts at regional scales
Pointing, Stephen B.; Belnap, Jayne
2014-01-01
This review considers the regional scale of impacts arising from disturbance to desert soil ecosystems. Deserts occupy over one-third of the Earth’s terrestrial surface, and biological soil covers are critical to stabilization of desert soils. Disturbance to these can contribute to massive destabilization and mobilization of dust. This results in dust storms that are transported across inter-continental distances where they have profound negative impacts. Dust deposition at high altitudes causes radiative forcing of snowpack that leads directly to altered hydrological regimes and changes to freshwater biogeochemistry. In marine environments dust deposition impacts phytoplankton diazotrophy, and causes coral reef senescence. Increasingly dust is also recognized as a threat to human health.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zhangqing, Li; Li, C.; Chen, H.; Tsay, S.-C.; Holben, B.; Huang, J.; Li, B.; Maring, H.; Qian, Y.; Shi, G.;
2011-01-01
As the most populated region of the world, Asia is a major source of aerosols with potential large impact over vast downstream areas, Papers published in this special section describe the variety of aerosols observed in China and their effects and interactions with the regional climate as part of the East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols and their Impact on Regional Climate (EAST-AIRC), The majority of the papers are based on analyses of observations made under three field projects, namely, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Mobile Facility mission in China (AMF-China), the East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols: An International Regional Experiment (EAST-AIRE), and the Atmospheric Aerosols of China and their Climate Effects (AACCE), The former two are U,S,-China collaborative projects, and the latter is a part of the China's National Basic Research program (or often referred to as "973 project"), Routine meteorological data of China are also employed in some studies, The wealth of general and speCIalized measurements lead to extensive and close-up investigations of the optical, physical, and chemical properties of anthropogenic, natural, and mixed aerosols; their sources, formation, and transport mechanisms; horizontal, vertical, and temporal variations; direct and indirect effects; and interactions with the East Asian monsoon system, Particular efforts are made to advance our understanding of the mixing and interaction between dust and anthropogenic pollutants during transport. Several modeling studies were carried out to simulate aerosol impact on radiation budget, temperature, precipitation, wind and atmospheric circulation, fog, etc, In addition, impacts of the Asian monsoon system on aerosol loading are also simulated.
Regional impacts of ocean color on tropical Pacific variability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anderson, W.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Wittenberg, A.
2009-08-01
The role of the penetration length scale of shortwave radiation into the surface ocean and its impact on tropical Pacific variability is investigated with a fully coupled ocean, atmosphere, land and ice model. Previous work has shown that removal of all ocean color results in a system that tends strongly towards an El Niño state. Results from a suite of surface chlorophyll perturbation experiments show that the mean state and variability of the tropical Pacific is highly sensitive to the concentration and distribution of ocean chlorophyll. Setting the near-oligotrophic regions to contain optically pure water warms the mean state and suppresses variability in the western tropical Pacific. Doing the same above the shadow zones of the tropical Pacific also warms the mean state but enhances the variability. It is shown that increasing penetration can both deepen the pycnocline (which tends to damp El Niño) while shifting the mean circulation so that the wind response to temperature changes is altered. Depending on what region is involved this change in the wind stress can either strengthen or weaken ENSO variability.
Regional impacts of ocean color on tropical Pacific variability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anderson, W.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Wittenberg, A.
2009-02-01
The role of the penetration length scale of shortwave radiation into the surface ocean and its impact on tropical Pacific variability is investigated with a fully coupled ocean, atmosphere, land and ice model. Previous work has shown that removal of all ocean color results in a system that tends strongly towards an El Niño state. Results from a suite of surface chlorophyll perturbation experiments show that the mean state and variability of the tropical Pacific is highly sensitive to the concentration and distribution of ocean chlorophyll. Setting the near-oligotrophic regions to contain optically pure water warms the mean state and suppresses variability in the western tropical Pacific. Doing the same above the shadow zones of the tropical Pacific also warms the mean state but enhances the variability. It is shown that increasing penetration can both deepen the pycnocline (which tends to damp El Niño) while shifting the mean circulation so that the wind response to temperature changes is altered. Depending on what region is involved this change in the wind stress can either strengthen or weaken ENSO variability.
Endacott, Ruth; Wood, Anita; Judd, Fiona; Hulbert, Carol; Thomas, Ben; Grigg, Margaret
2006-01-01
To explore the extent and impact of professional boundary crossings in metropolitan, regional and rural mental health practice in Victoria and identify strategies mental health clinicians use to manage dual relationships. Nine geographically located focus groups consisting of mental health clinicians: four focus groups in rural settings; three in a regional city and two in a metropolitan mental health service. A total of 52 participants were interviewed. Data revealed that professional boundaries were frequently breached in regional and rural settings and on occasions these breaches had a significantly negative impact. Factors influencing the impact were: longevity of the clinician's relationship with the community, expectations of the community, exposure to community 'gossip' and size of the community. Participants reported greater stress when the boundary crossing affected their partner and/or children. Clinicians used a range of proactive and reactive strategies, such as private telephone number, avoidance of social community activities, when faced with a potential boundary crossing. The feasibility of reactive strategies depended on the service configuration: availability of an alternative case manager, requirement for either patient or clinician to travel. The greater challenges faced by rural and regional clinicians were validated by metropolitan participants with rural experience and rural participants with metropolitan experience. No single strategy is used or appropriate for managing dual relationships in rural settings. Employers and professional bodies should provide clearer guidance for clinicians both in the management of dual relationships and the distinction between boundary crossings and boundary violation. Clinicians are clearly seeking to represent and protect the patients' interests; consideration should be given by consumer groups to steps that can be taken by patients to reciprocate.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Head, Ronald B.
A study was conducted to determine the economic impact of Piedmont Virginia Community College (PVCC) on its service area for fiscal year 1992-93. Three models of economic impact were used in the study: the "short cut" method (SCM) calculating impact based on data on college, employee, and student expenditures in the service region; the…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schleussner, C. F.
2016-12-01
Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. By establishing 1.5°C as the long term temperature limit for global average temperature increase and inviting a special report of the IPCC on the impacts of 1.5°C, the Paris Agreement has put such assessments high on the post-Paris science agenda. Here I will present recent findings of climate impacts at 1.5°C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. In particular, I will present findings from a recent study that attempts to differentiate between such impacts at warming levels of 1.5°¸C and 2°C above pre-industrial (Schleussner et al., 2016). By analyzing changes in indicators for 26 world regions as applicable, the study found regional dependent differences between a 1.5°C and 2°C warming. Regional hot-spots of change emerge with tropical regions bearing the brunt of the impacts of an additional 0.5°C warming. These findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. Building on that analysis, I will discuss limitations of existing approaches to differentiate between warming levels and outline opportunities for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5°C and 2°C warming. ReferencesSchleussner, C.-F. et al. Differential climate impacts for policy relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5°C and 2°C. Earth Syst. Dyn. 7, 327-351 (2016).
China’s Air Defense Identification Zone: Concept, Issues at Stake and Regional Impact
2013-12-23
early Chinese legal culture ” Karen Turner “War, Punishment, and The Law of Nature in Early Chinese Concepts of The State”, Harvard Journal of Asiatic...lack of strategic direction, moral relativism , a failure to gauge the significance of what is at stake, and distraction with events in other regions of...WORKING PAPER 1 posted 23 December 2013 CHINA’S AIR DEFENSE IDENTIFICATION ZONE: CONCEPT , ISSUES AT STAKE AND REGIONAL IMPACT
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thorne, James H.; Huber, Patrick R.; O'Donoghue, Elizabeth; Santos, Maria J.
2014-05-01
Globally, urban areas are expanding, and their regional, spatially cumulative, environmental impacts from transportation projects are not typically assessed. However, incorporation of a Regional Advance Mitigation Planning (RAMP) framework can promote more effective, ecologically sound, and less expensive environmental mitigation. As a demonstration of the first phase of the RAMP framework, we assessed environmental impacts from 181 planned transportation projects in the 19 368 km2 San Francisco Bay Area. We found that 107 road and railroad projects will impact 2411-3490 ha of habitat supporting 30-43 threatened or endangered species. In addition, 1175 ha of impacts to agriculture and native vegetation are expected, as well as 125 crossings of waterways supporting anadromous fish species. The extent of these spatially cumulative impacts shows the need for a regional approach to associated environmental offsets. Many of the impacts were comprised of numerous small projects, where project-by-project mitigation would result in increased transaction costs, land costs, and lost project time. Ecological gains can be made if a regional approach is taken through the avoidance of small-sized reserves and the ability to target parcels for acquisition that fit within conservation planning designs. The methods are straightforward, and can be used in other metropolitan areas.
Assessing the impact of urbanization on regional net primary productivity in Jiangyin County, China.
Xu, C; Liu, M; An, S; Chen, J M; Yan, P
2007-11-01
Urbanization is one of the most important aspects of global change. The process of urbanization has a significant impact on the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle. The Yangtze Delta region has one of the highest rates of urbanization in China. In this study, carried out in Jiangyin County as a representative region within the Yangtze Delta, land use and land cover changes were estimated using Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery. With these satellite data and the BEPS process model (Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator), the impacts of urbanization on regional net primary productivity (NPP) and annual net primary production were assessed for 1991 and 2002. Landsat-based land cover maps in 1991 and 2002 showed that urban development encroached large areas of cropland and forest. Expansion of residential areas and reduction of vegetated areas were the major forms of land transformation in Jiangyin County during this period. Mean NPP of the total area decreased from 818 to 699 gCm(-2)yr(-1) during the period of 1991 to 2002. NPP of cropland was only reduced by 2.7% while forest NPP was reduced by 9.3%. Regional annual primary production decreased from 808 GgC in 1991 to 691 GgC in 2002, a reduction of 14.5%. Land cover changes reduced regional NPP directly, and the increasing intensity and frequency of human-induced disturbance in the urbanized areas could be the main reason for the decrease in forest NPP.
Coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Modeling of the Mount Pinatubo Impact on the Red Sea
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stenchikov, G. L.; Osipov, S.
2017-12-01
The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo had dramatic effects on the regional climate in the Middle East. Though acknowledged, these effects have not been thoroughly studied. To fill this gap and to advance understanding of the mechanisms that control variability in the Middle East's regional climate, we simulated the impact of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption using a regional coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling system set for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) domain. We used the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) framework, which couples the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model with the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS). We modified the WRF model to account for the radiative effect of volcanic aerosols. Our coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations verified by available observations revealed strong perturbations in the energy balance of the Red Sea, which drove thermal and circulation responses. Our modeling approach allowed us to separate changes in the atmospheric circulation caused by the impact of the volcano from direct regional radiative cooling from volcanic aerosols. The atmospheric circulation effect was significantly stronger than the direct volcanic aerosols effect. We found that the Red Sea response to the Pinatubo eruption was stronger and qualitatively different from that of the global ocean system. Our results suggest that major volcanic eruptions significantly affect the climate in the Middle East and the Red Sea and should be carefully taken into account in assessments of long-term climate variability and warming trends in MENA and the Red Sea.
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2010-05-13
... Impact Statement: New Bedford Regional Airport, New Bedford, MA AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration... England Executive Park, Burlington, MA. Telephone (781) 238-7613. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The FAA is... locations: FAA New England Region, Airports Division, 16 New England Executive Park, Burlington, MA...
Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.
2014-12-01
Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes
Regional impacts of iron-light colimitation in a global biogeochemical model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Galbraith, E. D.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Dunne, J. P.; Hiscock, M. R.
2010-03-01
Laboratory and field studies have revealed that iron has multiple roles in phytoplankton physiology, with particular importance for light-harvesting cellular machinery. However, although iron-limitation is explicitly included in numerous biogeochemical/ecosystem models, its implementation varies, and its effect on the efficiency of light harvesting is often ignored. Given the complexity of the ocean environment, it is difficult to predict the consequences of applying different iron limitation schemes. Here we explore the interaction of iron and nutrient cycles in an ocean general circulation model using a new, streamlined model of ocean biogeochemistry. Building on previously published parameterizations of photoadaptation and export production, the Biogeochemistry with Light Iron Nutrients and Gasses (BLING) model is constructed with only four explicit tracers but including macronutrient and micronutrient limitation, light limitation, and an implicit treatment of community structure. The structural simplicity of this computationally-inexpensive model allows us to clearly isolate the global effect that iron availability has on maximum light-saturated photosynthesis rates vs. the effect iron has on photosynthetic efficiency. We find that the effect on light-saturated photosynthesis rates is dominant, negating the importance of photosynthetic efficiency in most regions, especially the cold waters of the Southern Ocean. The primary exceptions to this occur in iron-rich regions of the Northern Hemisphere, where high light-saturated photosynthesis rates allow photosynthetic efficiency to play a more important role. In other words, the ability to efficiently harvest photons has little effect in regions where light-saturated growth rates are low. Additionally, we speculate that the phytoplankton cells dominating iron-limited regions tend to have relatively high photosynthetic efficiency, due to reduced packaging effects. If this speculation is correct, it would imply that
Kripke, Katharine; Vazzano, Andrea; Kirungi, William; Musinguzi, Joshua; Opio, Alex; Ssempebwa, Rhobbinah; Nakawunde, Susan; Kyobutungi, Sheila; Akao, Juliet N.; Magala, Fred; Mwidu, George; Castor, Delivette
2016-01-01
Background Uganda aims to provide safe male circumcision (SMC) to 80% of men ages 15–49 by 2016. To date, only 2 million men have received SMC of the 4.2 million men required. In response to age and regional trends in SMC uptake, the country sought to re-examine its targets with respect to age and subnational region, to assess the program’s progress, and to refine the implementation approach. Methods and Findings The Decision Makers’ Program Planning Tool, Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0), was used in conjunction with incidence projections from the Spectrum/AIDS Impact Module (AIM) to conduct this analysis. Population, births, deaths, and HIV incidence and prevalence were used to populate the model. Baseline male circumcision prevalence was derived from the 2011 AIDS Indicator Survey. Uganda can achieve the most immediate impact on HIV incidence by circumcising men ages 20–34. This group will also require the fewest circumcisions for each HIV infection averted. Focusing on men ages 10–19 will offer the greatest impact over a 15-year period, while focusing on men ages 15–34 offers the most cost-effective strategy over the same period. A regional analysis showed little variation in cost-effectiveness of scaling up SMC across eight regions. Scale-up is cost-saving in all regions. There is geographic variability in program progress, highlighting two regions with low baseline rates of circumcision where additional efforts will be needed. Conclusion Focusing SMC efforts on specific age groups and regions may help to accelerate Uganda’s SMC program progress. Policy makers in Uganda have already used model outputs in planning efforts, proposing males ages 10–34 as a priority group for SMC in the 2014 application to the Global Fund’s new funding model. As scale-up continues, the country should also consider a greater effort to expand SMC in regions with low MC prevalence. PMID:27410234
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McDonald, G. W.; Cronin, S. J.; Kim, J.-H.; Smith, N. J.; Murray, C. A.; Procter, J. N.
2017-12-01
The economic impacts of volcanism extend well beyond the direct costs of loss of life and asset damage. This paper presents one of the first attempts to assess the economic consequences of disruption associated with volcanic impacts at a range of temporal and spatial scales using multi-regional and dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling. Based on the last decade of volcanic research findings at Mt. Taranaki, three volcanic event scenarios (Tahurangi, Inglewood and Opua) differentiated by critical physical thresholds were generated. In turn, the corresponding disruption economic impacts were calculated for each scenario. Under the Tahurangi scenario (annual probability of 0.01-0.02), a small-scale explosive (Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 2-3) and dome forming eruption, the economic impacts were negligible with complete economic recovery experienced within a year. The larger Inglewood sub-Plinian to Plinian eruption scenario event (VEI > 4, annualised probability of 0.003) produced significant impacts on the Taranaki region economy of 207 million (representing 4.0% of regional gross domestic product (GDP) 1 year after the event, 2007 New Zealand dollars), that will take around 5 years to recover. The Opua scenario, the largest magnitude volcanic hazard modelled, is a major flank collapse and debris avalanche event with an annual probability of 0.00018. The associated economic impacts of this scenario were 397 million (representing 7.7% of regional GDP 1 year after the event) with the Taranaki region economy suffering permanent structural changes. Our dynamic analysis illustrates that different economic impacts play out at different stages in a volcanic crisis. We also discuss the key strengths and weaknesses of our modelling along with potential extensions.
Uctug, Fehmi Gorkem; Azapagic, Adisa
2018-05-01
Solar water heating (SWH) systems could help reduce environmental impacts from energy use but their performance and impacts depend on the climate. This paper considers how these vary for residential SWH across four different climatic regions in Turkey, ranging from hot to cold climates. Life cycle assessment was used for these purposes. The results suggest that in the hotter regions, the impacts of SWH are 1.5-2 times lower than those of natural gas boilers. A similar trend was observed in the two colder regions except for acidification, which was four times higher than that of the boiler. The raw materials and electricity required for the manufacturing of the systems were found to be the most important contributors to the impacts. Recycling the major components instead of landfilling reduced human toxicity potential by 50% but had only a small effect (5%) on the other impacts. The impacts were highly sensitive to the type of material used for the construction of the hot storage tank, but were not affected by transport and end-of life recycling. The only exception to the latter is human toxicity potential which decreased significantly with greater recycling. Extrapolating the results at the national level showed that SWH systems could reduce the annual greenhouse gas emissions in Turkey by 790kt CO 2 -eq. and would save the economy $162.5millionperyear through the avoided imports of natural gas. All other impacts would also be reduced significantly (3-32 times), except for acidification which would double. Therefore, SWH systems should be deployed more extensively in Turkey but government incentives may be needed to stimulate the uptake. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Li, Zhanqing; Li, C.; Chen, H.
2011-02-01
As the most populated region of the world, Asia is a major source of aerosols with potential large impact over vast downstream areas. Papers published in this special section describe the variety of aerosols observed in China and their effects and interactions with the regional climate as part of the East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols and Impact on Regional Climate (EAST-AIRC). The majority of the papers are based on analyses of observations made under three field projects, namely, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Mobile Facility mission in China (AMF10 China), the East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols: an Internationalmore » Regional Experiment (EAST-AIRE), and the Atmospheric Aerosols of China and their Climate Effects (AACCE). The former two are US-China collaborative projects and the latter is a part of the China’s National Basic Research program (or often referred to as “973 project”). Routine meteorological data of China are also employed in some studies. The wealth of general and specialized measurements lead to extensive and close-up investigations of the optical, physical and chemical properties of anthropogenic, natural, and mixed aerosols; their sources, formation and transport mechanisms; horizontal, vertical and temporal variations; direct and indirect effects and interactions with the East Asian monsoon system. Particular efforts are made to advance our understanding of the mixing and interaction between dust and anthropogenic pollutants during transport. Several modeling studies were carried out to simulate aerosol impact on radiation budget, temperature, precipitation, wind and atmospheric circulation, fog, etc. In addition, impacts of the Asian monsoon system on aerosol loading are also simulated.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hoffman, A.; Forest, C. E.; Kemanian, A.
2016-12-01
A significant number of food-insecure nations exist in regions of the world where dust plays a large role in the climate system. While the impacts of common climate variables (e.g. temperature, precipitation, ozone, and carbon dioxide) on crop yields are relatively well understood, the impact of mineral aerosols on yields have not yet been thoroughly investigated. This research aims to develop the data and tools to progress our understanding of mineral aerosol impacts on crop yields. Suspended dust affects crop yields by altering the amount and type of radiation reaching the plant, modifying local temperature and precipitation. While dust events (i.e. dust storms) affect crop yields by depleting the soil of nutrients or by defoliation via particle abrasion. The impact of dust on yields is modeled statistically because we are uncertain which impacts will dominate the response on national and regional scales considered in this study. Multiple linear regression is used in a number of large-scale statistical crop modeling studies to estimate yield responses to various climate variables. In alignment with previous work, we develop linear crop models, but build upon this simple method of regression with machine-learning techniques (e.g. random forests) to identify important statistical predictors and isolate how dust affects yields on the scales of interest. To perform this analysis, we develop a crop-climate dataset for maize, soybean, groundnut, sorghum, rice, and wheat for the regions of West Africa, East Africa, South Africa, and the Sahel. Random forest regression models consistently model historic crop yields better than the linear models. In several instances, the random forest models accurately capture the temperature and precipitation threshold behavior in crops. Additionally, improving agricultural technology has caused a well-documented positive trend that dominates time series of global and regional yields. This trend is often removed before regression with
Possible Impacts of Global Warming on Hydrology of the Ogallala Aquifer Region
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Rosenberg, Norman J.; Epstein, Daniel J.; Wang, Dahong
The Ogallala or High Plains aquifer provides water for about 20% of the irrigated land in the United States. About 20 km{sup 3} (16.6 million acre-feet) of water are withdrawn annually from this aquifer. In general, recharge has not compensated for withdrawals since major irrigation development began in this region in the 1940s. The mining of the Ogallala has been pictured as an analogue to climate change in that many GCMs predict a warmer and drier future for this region. We anticipate the possible impacts of climate change on the sustainability of the aquifer as a source of water formore » irrigation and other purposes in the region. We have applied HUMUS, the Hydrologic Unit Model of the U.S. to the Missouri and Arkansas-White-Red water resource regions that overlie the Ogallala. We have imposed three general circulation model (GISS, UKTR and BMRC) projections of future climate change on this region and simulated the changes that may be induced in water yields (runoff plus lateral flow) and ground water recharge. Each GCM was applied to HUMUS at three levels of global mean temperature (GMT) to represent increasing severity of climate change (a surrogate for time). HUMUS was also run at three levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration (hereafter denoted by[CO2]) in order to estimate the impacts of direct CO2 effects on photosynthesis and evapotranspiration. Since the UKTR and GISS GCMs project increased precipitation in the Missouri basin, water yields increase there. The BMRC GCM predicts sharply decreased precipitation and, hence, reduced water yields. Precipitation reductions are even greater in the Arkansas basin under BMRC as are the consequent water yield losses. GISS and UKTR climates lead to only moderate yield losses in the Arkansas. CO2-fertilization reverses these losses and yields increase slightly. CO2 fertilization increases recharge in the base (no climate change) case in both basins. Recharge is reduced under all three GCMs and severities of
Mary McKenney-Easterling; David R. DeWalle; Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Anthony R. Buda; Anthony R. Buda
2000-01-01
As part of the Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment, an evaluation is being made of the impacts of climate variability and potential future climate change on forests and forestry in the Mid-Atlantic Region. This paper provides a brief overview of the current status of forests in the region, and then focuses on 2 components of this evaluation: (1) modeling of the potential...
This presentation, Linking Regional Aerosol Emission Changes with Multiple Impact Measures through Direct and Cloud-Related Forcing Estimates, was given at the STAR Black Carbon 2016 Webinar Series: Accounting for Impact, Emissions, and Uncertainty.
The hydrological consequences of human impact in the Lublin Region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Michalczyk, Zdzisław; Mięsiak-Wójcik, Katarzyna; Sposób, Joanna; Turczyński, Marek
2012-01-01
The Lublin Region is an area where local transformations in the natural environment, including the hydrosphere, occur. They result from the impact of agriculture, industry as well as water supply and sewage disposal. These activities lead to changes in the water network resulting from land improvement works, channel straightening and water runoff acceleration, as well as to the formation of local, both point and diffuse sources, of water pollution. The consequences of human impact are manifested in local transformations of the quality or quantity of water resources. As a result of intense groundwater draw-off, hydrogeological conditions are transformed, which is reflected in the persistence of depression cones of varied size and depth, noticeable in the vicinity of water intakes for Lublin, Chełm, Zamość and Kraśnik. The lowering of the first-level groundwater table also occurs as a consequence of the drainage of chalk and marl mine workings in Chełm and Rejowiec, whereas in the area of the hard coal mine both shallow and deep groundwater was transformed. It is important to indicate the consequences of human impact changes of water conditions as the hydrosphere resources should be used according to the principles of sustainable development.
Scenarios of bioenergy development impacts on regional groundwater withdrawals
Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Mitchell, Rob B.; Guan, Qingfeng; McCoy, Tim D.
2013-01-01
Irrigation increases agricultural productivity, but it also stresses water resources (Huffaker and Hamilton 2007). Drought and the potential for drier conditions resulting from climate change could strain water supplies in landscapes where human populations rely on finite groundwater resources for drinking, agriculture, energy, and industry (IPCC 2007). For instance, in the North American Great Plains, rowcrops are utilized for livestock feed, food, and bioenergy production (Cassman and Liska 2007), and a large portion is irrigated with groundwater from the High Plains aquifer system (McGuire 2011). Under projected future climatic conditions, greater crop water use requirements and diminished groundwater recharge rates could make rowcrop irrigation less feasible in some areas (Rosenberg et al. 1999; Sophocleous 2005). The Rainwater Basin region of south central Nebraska, United States, is an intensively farmed and irrigated Great Plains landscape dominated by corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max L.) production (Bishop and Vrtiska 2008). Ten starch-based ethanol plants currently service the region, producing ethanol from corn grain (figure 1). In this study, we explore the potential of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), a drought-tolerant alternative bioenergy feedstock, to impact regional annual groundwater withdrawals for irrigation under warmer and drier future conditions. Although our research context is specific to the Rainwater Basin and surrounding North American Great Plains, we believe the broader research question is internationally pertinent and hope that this study simulates similar research in other areas.
The Impact of Urbanization on the Regional Aeolian Dynamics of an Arid Coastal Dunefield
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Smith, Alexander; Jackson, Derek; Cooper, Andrew
2016-04-01
The anthropogenic impact on the geomorphology of many landscapes are inextricably connected but are often neglected due to the difficulty in making a direct link between the quasi natural and human processes that impact the environment. This research focuses on the Maspalomas dunefield, located on the southern coast of Gran Canaria, in the Canary Island Archipelago. The tourism industry in Maspalomas has led to intensive urbanization since the early 1960's over an elevated alluvial terrace that extends into the dunefield. Urbanization has had a substantial impact on both the regional airflow conditions and the geomorphological development of this transverse dune system. As a result airflow and sediment has been redirected in response to the large scale construction efforts. In situ data was collected during field campaigns using high resolution three-dimensional anemometry to identify the various modifications within the dunefield relative to incipient regional airflow conditions. The goal is to analyse the flow conditions near the urbanized terrace in relation to areas that are located away from the influence of the buildings and to verify numerical modelling results. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modelling is used in order to expand the areal extent of analysis by providing an understanding of relevant flow dynamics (e.g. flow velocity, directionality, turbulence, shear stresses, etc.) at the mesoscale. An integrative three dimensional model for CFD simulations was created to address the impact of both the urban area (i.e. hotels, commercial centers, and residential communities) as well as the dune terrain on regional flow conditions. Early modelling results show that there is significant flow modification around the urban terrace with streamline compression, acceleration, and deflection of flow on the windward side of the development. Consequently downwind of the terrace there is an area of highly turbulent flow conditions and well developed separation and
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Sharma, Lalit
2015-01-01
Lee, Chang & Lim (2005) state that the impact of entrepreneurship education in each country is different because of each country's unique culture with regard to entrepreneurship. Going by the above argument, this research paper intends to make a formal enquiry on whether the above effect holds true for different regions within a particular…
Examining the Impact of Nitrous Acid Chemistry on Ozone and PM over the Pearl River Delta Region
The impact of nitrous acid (HONO) chemistry on regional ozone and particulate matter in Pearl River Delta region was investigated using the community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) modeling system and the CB05 mechanism. Model simulations were conducted for a ten-day period in Oct...
Venus - Large Impact Crater in the Eistla Region
1996-09-26
This image from NASA Magellan spacecraft shows the central Eistla Region of the equatorial highlands of Venus. It is centered at 15 degrees north latitude and 5 degrees east longitude. The image is 76.8 kilometers (48 miles) wide. The crater is slightly irregular in platform and approximately 6 kilometers (4 miles) in diameter. The walls appear terraced. Five or six lobes of radar-bright ejecta radiate up to 13.2 kilometers (8 miles) from the crater rim. These lobes are up to 3.5 kilometers (2 miles) in width and form a "starfish" pattern against the underlying radar-dark plains. The asymmetric pattern of the ejecta suggests the angle of impact was oblique. The alignment of two of the ejecta lobes along fractures in the underlying plains is apparently coincidental. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA00466
Regional scale temperature and circulation impacts of short-lived climate pollutants reductions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Oudar, T.; Kushner, P. J.; Fyfe, J. C.; von Salzen, K.; Shrestha, R.
2017-12-01
The role of anthropogenic aerosols on climate is still not clearly understood. Aerosol forcing is spatially heterogeneous and their emissions are controlled by regional economic and regulatory factors. For example, it is known that black carbon is responsible for a global net warming but its regional impacts are less understood. We evaluate the regional climate impacts of anthropogenic aerosol emission changes over the recent past and near future. Specifically, we report on numerical experiments using aerosol emissions from the Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants (ECLIPSE, Stohl et al., 2015) project. These scenarios are alternative mitigation pathways for black carbon and organic aerosol over the period from 1990 to 2050. With these scenarios, we carried out three sets of simulation using the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2): 1) A current legislation emission (CLE) scenario for black carbon and organic aerosols; 2) A mitigation (MIT) scenario for black carbon and organic aerosols, and; 3) A black carbon only mitigation scenario (MIT-BC). Five simulations were carried out for each scenario and the response analyzed in the context of a large fifty-member initial condition ensemble of simulations using historical anthropogenic aerosol forcings to 2005 as well as those forcing from the RCP8.5 scenario to 2020. Our main finding is a significant springtime cooling over the Northern midlatitudes that attributable to black carbon. Other cooling signals attributable to black carbon reductions are found in the boreal summer over Southern Europe as well as over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and tropical troposphere in boreal summer and fall. All of these cooling signals are to some degree offset by simultaneous reductions in organic aerosols. As a check on the robustness, we will also report on results of five-member draws from the large ensemble over periods of comparably strong radiative forcing changes, to
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ji, P.; Yuan, X.
2017-12-01
Located in the northern Tibetan Plateau, Sanjiangyuan is the headwater region of the Yellow River, Yangtze River and Mekong River. Besides climate change, natural and human-induced land cover change (e.g., Graze for Grass Project) is also influencing the regional hydro-climate and hydrological extremes significantly. To quantify their impacts, a land surface model (LSM) with consideration of soil moisture-lateral surface flow interaction and quasi-three-dimensional subsurface flow, is used to conduct long-term high resolution simulations driven by China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System forcing data and different land cover scenarios. In particular, the role of surface and subsurface lateral flows is also analyzed by comparing with typical one-dimensional models. Lateral flows help to simulate soil moisture variability caused by topography at hyper-resolution (e.g., 100m), which is also essential for simulating hydrological extremes including soil moisture dryness/wetness and high/low flows. The LSM will also be coupled with a regional climate model to simulate the effect of natural and anthropogenic land cover change on regional climate, with particular focus on the land-atmosphere coupling at different resolutions with different configurations in modeling land surface hydrology.
CLIMATE IMPACTS ON REGIONAL WATER
The New England region (including the 6 New England
states plus upstate New York) offers a very diverse geography,
matched by an equally diverse economy and human
population. Livelihoods throughout the region are based
on service industries that depend heavily on comm...
Impacts of urbanization on nitrogen deposition in the Pearl River Delta region, China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, X.; Fan, Q.
2015-12-01
The Pearl River Delta (PRD) region is one of the most advanced economic districts in China, which has experienced remarkable economic development and urbanization in the past two decades. Accompanied with the rapid economy development and urbanization, the PRD region encountered both severe nitrogen pollution and deposition. In this study, the characteristics of nitrogen deposition and impacts of urbanization on nitrogen deposition in the PRD region were investigated by combining the methods of field study and numerical model. According to the field measurements, the total dry and wet atmospheric deposition of reactive N at a urban site (SYSU) was up to 55.0 kg ha-1 yr-1 in 2010, slightly lower than the results at a rural forest site (DHS) (57.6 kg ha-1 yr-1). Wet deposition was the main form of the total deposition (64-76%). Organic nitrogen (ON) was found to be dominant in the total N deposition, with a contribution of 53% at DHS and 42% at SYSU. NH4+-N and NO3--N accounted for a similar portion of the total N deposition (23-29%). Atmospheric nitrogen deposition was further simulated by using the improved WRF-Chem model. The simulated N deposition flux was high in the north of PRD (i.e., Guangzhou, Foshan, Zhaoqing) and relative low in the east (Huizhou) and south (Zhuhai), with an average N deposition flux of about 24 kg ha-1 yr-1 for the whole PRD. The distribution of N dry deposition was mainly controlled by the concentration of reactive N compounds and precipitation governed the wet deposition distribution. The modeling results also indicate that the PRD area is the source region in which the emissions exceed the deposition while the outside area of the PRD is the receptor region in which the deposition exceeds emissions. The impact of emission change and land use change due to urbanization was also investigated using the WRF-Chem model. The results showed that atmospheric N deposition exhibits a direct response to emission change while the land use change
Assessments of regional climate change and its impacts in Northern Europe
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Omstedt, Anders; von Storch, Hans; Reckermann, Marcus; Quante, Markus
2015-04-01
Regional climate change assessments are urgently needed to complement the big picture with regional results and scenarios of higher resolution and with relevance for local decision makers and stakeholders. A new type of assessment report originated in the original BACC report of 2008 (BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea region) which has served as role model for other assessments published or in preparation. It represents an approach to assessing and making available current knowledge on regional climate change and its regional impacts on the physical, biogeochemical and biological environment (ecosystems, socio-economic sphere). Reports of this type which are available or underway are the original BACC book (2008), the second BACC book (2015), the climate report for the greater Hamburg area (2011), and the NOSCCA report (North Sea Climate Change Assessment) which is expected to be published in 2016. The assessments are produced by teams of scientists from the region, led by lead authors who recruit experts from relevant topics to contribute. The process is not externally funded and completely based on published scientific evidence, and not biased by political or economic interest groups. The BACC-type reports aim to bring together consolidated knowledge that has broad consensus in the scientific community, but also acknowledging issues for which contradicting opinions are found in the literature, so that no consensus can be reached ("consensus on dissensus"). An international steering committee is responsible for overlooking the process, and all manuscripts are anonymously peer-reviewed by independent international experts. An outstanding outreach aspect of these reports is the close collaboration with regional stakeholders (for the BACC reports: HELCOM, the intergovernmental Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission and the major regional science-policy interface in the Baltic Sea region; for the Hamburg climate report: the Hamburg city
Effectiveness of Different Urban Heat Island Mitigation Methods and Their Regional Impacts
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, N.
2017-12-01
Cool roofs and green roofs are two popular methods to mitigate urban heat island and improve urban climate. The effectiveness of different urban heat island mitigation strategies in the summer of 2013 in the Yangtze River Delta, China is investigated using the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model coupled with a physically based urban canopy model. The modifications to the roof surface changed the urban surface radiation balance and then modified the local surface energy budget. Both cool roofs and green roofs led to lower surface skin temperature and near-surface air temperature. Increasing the roof albedo to 0.5 caused a similar effectiveness as covering 25% of urban roofs with vegetation; increasing roof albedo to 0.7 caused a similar near-surface air temperature decrease as 75% green roof coverage. The near-surface relative humidity increased in both cool roof and green roof experiments because of the combination of the impacts of increases in specific humidity and decreases in air temperature. The regional impacts of cool roofs and green roofs were evaluated using the regional effect index. The regional effect could be found in both near-surface air temperature and surface specific/relative humidity when the percentage of roofs covered with high albedo materials or green roofs reached a higher fraction (greater than 50%). The changes in the vertical profiles of temperature cause a more stable atmospheric boundary layer over the urban area; at the same time, the crossover phenomena occurred above the boundary layer due to the decrease in vertical wind speed.
Okamura, Kohji; Wintle, Richard F; Scherer, Stephen W
2008-01-01
Imprinted genes are exclusively expressed from one of the two parental alleles in a parent-of-origin-specific manner. In mammals, nearly 100 genes are documented to be imprinted. To understand the mechanism behind this gene regulation and to identify novel imprinted genes, common features of DNA sequences have been analyzed; however, the general features required for genomic imprinting have not yet been identified, possibly due to variability in underlying molecular mechanisms from locus to locus. We performed a thorough comparative genomic analysis of a single locus, Impact, which is imprinted only in Glires (rodents and lagomorphs). The fact that Glires and primates diverged from each other as recent as 70 million years ago makes comparisons between imprinted and non-imprinted orthologues relatively reliable. In species from the Glires clade, Impact bears a differentially methylated region, whereby the maternal allele is hypermethylated. Analysis of this region demonstrated that imprinting was not associated with the presence of direct tandem repeats nor with CpG dinucleotide density. In contrast, a CpG periodicity of 8 bp was observed in this region in species of the Glires clade compared to those of carnivores, artiodactyls, and primates. We show that tandem repeats are dispensable, establishment of the differentially methylated region does not rely on G+C content and CpG density, and the CpG periodicity of 8 bp is meaningful to the imprinting. This interval has recently been reported to be optimal for de novo methylation by the Dnmt3a-Dnmt3L complex, suggesting its importance in the establishment of imprinting in Impact and other genes.
Bartl, Karin; Verones, Francesca; Hellweg, Stefanie
2012-09-18
Crop and technology choices in agriculture, which largely define the impact of agricultural production on the environment, should be considered in agricultural development planning. A life cycle assessment of the dominant crops produced in a Peruvian coastal valley was realized, in order to establish regionalized life cycle inventories for Peruvian products and to provide the basis for a regional evaluation of the impacts of eutrophication, acidification, human toxicity, and biodiversity loss due to water use. Five scenarios for the year 2020 characterized by different crop combinations and irrigation systems were considered as development options. The results of the regional assessment showed that a business-as-usual scenario, extrapolating current trends of crop cultivation, would lead to an increase in nitrate leaching with eutrophying effects. On the other hand, scenarios of increased application of drip irrigation and of mandarin area expansion would lead to a decrease in nitrate leaching. In all scenarios the human toxicity potential would decrease slightly, while an increase in irrigation water use would benefit the biodiversity of a nearby groundwater-fed wetland. Comparisons with results from other studies confirmed the importance of regionalized life cycle inventories. The results can be used as decision support for local farmers and authorities.
Lin, Chia-Chun; Lin, Jia-Yu; Lee, Mengshan; Chiueh, Pei-Te
2017-12-31
Water availability, resulting from either a lack of water or poor water quality is a key factor contributing to regional water stress. This study proposes a set of sector-wise characterization factors (CFs), namely consumptive and degradative water stresses, to assess the impact of water withdrawals with a life cycle assessment approach. These CFs consider water availability, water quality, and competition for water between domestic, agricultural and industrial sectors and ecosystem at the watershed level. CFs were applied to a case study of regional water management of industrial water withdrawals in Taiwan to show that both regional or seasonal decrease in water availability contributes to a high consumptive water stress, whereas water scarcity due to degraded water quality not meeting sector standards has little influence on increased degradative water stress. Degradative water stress was observed more in the agricultural sector than in the industrial sector, which implies that the agriculture sector may have water quality concerns. Reducing water intensity and alleviating regional scale water stresses of watersheds are suggested as approaches to decrease the impact of both consumptive and degradative water use. The results from this study may enable a more detailed sector-wise analysis of water stress and influence water resource management policies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
1985-10-01
complex process of data collection, selection and application of analysis methodologies, identification and evaluation of technical, socio -econmic and...area and political subdivision data. Two solutions are available: (a) disaggregate demographic and socio -econanic data to the service area (this...century. with this as an example, and data limitations can extend from the limits of knowledge of climate to limits of data on socio -econamic
Rudokas, Jason; Miller, Paul J; Trail, Marcus A; Russell, Armistead G
2015-04-21
We investigate the projected impact of six climate mitigation scenarios on U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOX) associated with energy use in major sectors of the U.S. economy (commercial, residential, industrial, electricity generation, and transportation). We use the EPA U.S. 9-region national database with the MARKet Allocation energy system model to project emissions changes over the 2005 to 2050 time frame. The modeled scenarios are two carbon tax, two low carbon transportation, and two biomass fuel choice scenarios. In the lower carbon tax and both biomass fuel choice scenarios, SO2 and NOX achieve reductions largely through pre-existing rules and policies, with only relatively modest additional changes occurring from the climate mitigation measures. The higher carbon tax scenario projects greater declines in CO2 and SO2 relative to the 2050 reference case, but electricity sector NOX increases. This is a result of reduced investments in power plant NOX controls in earlier years in anticipation of accelerated coal power plant retirements, energy penalties associated with carbon capture systems, and shifting of NOX emissions in later years from power plants subject to a regional NOX cap to those in regions not subject to the cap.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Horanyi, Mihaly; Szalay, Jamey
2017-10-01
The lunar regolith has been formed, and remains continually reworked, by the intermitten impacts of comets, asteroids, meteoroids, and the continual bombardment by interplanetary dust particles (IDP). Thick atmospheres protect Venus, Earth, and Mars, ablating the incoming IDPs into “shooting stars” that rarely reach the surface. However, the surfaces of airless bodies near 1 AU are directly exposed to the high-speed (>> 1 km/s) IDP impacts. The Moon is expected to be bombarded by 5x103 kg/day of IDPs arriving with a characteristic speed of ~ 20 km/s. The IDP sources impacting the Moon at high latitudes remain largely uncharacterized due to the lack of optical and radar observations in the polar regions on Earth. These high latitude sources have very large impact speeds in the range of 30 < v < 50 km/ hence they are expected to have a significant effect on the lunar surface, including the removal and burial of volatile deposits in the lunar polar regions.Water is thought to be continually delivered to the Moon through geological timescales by water-bearing comets and asteroids, and produced continuously in situ by the impacts of solar wind protons of oxygen rich minerals exposed on the surface. IDPs are an unlikely source of water due to their long UV exposure in the inner solar system, but their high-speed impacts can mobilize secondary ejecta dust particles, atoms and molecules, some with high-enough speed to escape the Moon. Other surface processes that can lead to mobilization, transport and loss of water molecules and other volatiles include solar heating, photochemical processes, and solar wind sputtering. Since none of these are at work in permanently shadowed regions (PSR), dust impacts remain the dominant process to dictate the evolution of volatiles in PSRs. The competing effects of dust impacts are: a) ejecta production leading to loss out of a PSR; b) gardening and overturning the regolith; and c) the possible accumulation of impact ejecta, leading
Impact of disaster-related mortality on gross domestic product in the WHO African Region
Kirigia, Joses M; Sambo, Luis G; Aldis, William; Mwabu, Germano M
2004-01-01
Background Disaster-related mortality is a growing public health concern in the African Region. These deaths are hypothesized to have a significantly negative effect on per capita gross domestic product (GDP). The objective of this study was to estimate the loss in GDP attributable to natural and technological disaster-related mortality in the WHO African Region. Methods The impact of disaster-related mortality on GDP was estimated using double-log econometric model and cross-sectional data on various Member States in the WHO African Region. The analysis was based on 45 of the 46 countries in the Region. The data was obtained from various UNDP and World Bank publications. Results The coefficients for capital (K), educational enrolment (EN), life expectancy (LE) and exports (X) had a positive sign; while imports (M) and disaster mortality (DS) were found to impact negatively on GDP. The above-mentioned explanatory variables were found to have a statistically significant effect on GDP at 5% level in a t-distribution test. Disaster mortality of a single person was found to reduce GDP by US$0.01828. Conclusions We have demonstrated that disaster-related mortality has a significant negative effect on GDP. Thus, as policy-makers strive to increase GDP through capital investment, export promotion and increased educational enrolment, they should always keep in mind that investments made in the strengthening of national capacity to mitigate the effects of national disasters expeditiously and effectively will yield significant economic returns. PMID:15113453
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anenberg, S. C.; Talgo, K.; Arunachalam, S.; Dolwick, P.; Jang, C.; West, J. J.
2011-07-01
As a component of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), black carbon (BC) is associated with premature human mortality. BC also affects climate by absorbing solar radiation and reducing planetary albedo. Several studies have examined the climate impacts of BC emissions, but the associated health impacts have been studied less extensively. Here, we examine the surface PM2.5 and premature mortality impacts of halving anthropogenic BC emissions globally and individually from eight world regions and three major economic sectors. We use a global chemical transport model, MOZART-4, to simulate PM2.5 concentrations and a health impact function to calculate premature cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths. We estimate that halving global anthropogenic BC emissions reduces outdoor population-weighted average PM2.5 by 542 ng m-3 (1.8 %) and avoids 157 000 (95 % confidence interval, 120 000-194 000) annual premature deaths globally, with the vast majority occurring within the source region. Most of these avoided deaths can be achieved by halving emissions in East Asia (China; 54 %), followed by South Asia (India; 31 %), however South Asian emissions have 50 % greater mortality impacts per unit BC emitted than East Asian emissions. Globally, halving residential, industrial, and transportation emissions contributes 47 %, 35 %, and 15 % to the avoided deaths from halving all anthropogenic BC emissions. These contributions are 1.2, 1.2, and 0.6 times each sector's portion of global BC emissions, owing to the degree of co-location with population globally. We find that reducing BC emissions increases regional SO4 concentrations by up to 28 % of the magnitude of the regional BC concentration reductions, due to reduced absorption of radiation that drives photochemistry. Impacts of residential BC emissions are likely underestimated since indoor PM2.5 exposure is excluded. We estimate ∼8 times more avoided deaths when BC and organic carbon (OC) emissions are halved together, suggesting
Regional characterization of freshwater Use in LCA: modeling direct impacts on human health.
Boulay, Anne-Marie; Bulle, Cécile; Bayart, Jean-Baptiste; Deschênes, Louise; Margni, Manuele
2011-10-15
Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a methodology that quantifies potential environmental impacts for comparative purposes in a decision-making context. While potential environmental impacts from pollutant emissions into water are characterized in LCA, impacts from water unavailability are not yet fully quantified. Water use can make the resource unavailable to other users by displacement or quality degradation. A reduction in water availability to human users can potentially affect human health. If financial resources are available, there can be adaptations that may, in turn, shift the environmental burdens to other life cycle stages and impact categories. This paper proposes a model to evaluate these potential impacts in an LCA context. It considers the water that is withdrawn and released, its quality and scarcity in order to evaluate the loss of functionality associated with water uses. Regionalized results are presented for impacts on human health for two modeling approaches regarding affected users, including or not domestic uses, and expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALY). A consumption and quality based scarcity indicator is also proposed as a midpoint. An illustrative example is presented for the production of corrugated board with different effluents, demonstrating the importance of considering quality, process effluents and the difference between the modeling approaches.
Numerical investigation for the impact of CO2 geologic sequestration on regional groundwater flow
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Yamamoto, H.; Zhang, K.; Karasaki, K.
Large-scale storage of carbon dioxide in saline aquifers may cause considerable pressure perturbation and brine migration in deep rock formations, which may have a significant influence on the regional groundwater system. With the help of parallel computing techniques, we conducted a comprehensive, large-scale numerical simulation of CO{sub 2} geologic storage that predicts not only CO{sub 2} migration, but also its impact on regional groundwater flow. As a case study, a hypothetical industrial-scale CO{sub 2} injection in Tokyo Bay, which is surrounded by the most heavily industrialized area in Japan, was considered, and the impact of CO{sub 2} injection on near-surfacemore » aquifers was investigated, assuming relatively high seal-layer permeability (higher than 10 microdarcy). A regional hydrogeological model with an area of about 60 km x 70 km around Tokyo Bay was discretized into about 10 million gridblocks. To solve the high-resolution model efficiently, we used a parallelized multiphase flow simulator TOUGH2-MP/ECO2N on a world-class high performance supercomputer in Japan, the Earth Simulator. In this simulation, CO{sub 2} was injected into a storage aquifer at about 1 km depth under Tokyo Bay from 10 wells, at a total rate of 10 million tons/year for 100 years. Through the model, we can examine regional groundwater pressure buildup and groundwater migration to the land surface. The results suggest that even if containment of CO{sub 2} plume is ensured, pressure buildup on the order of a few bars can occur in the shallow confined aquifers over extensive regions, including urban inlands.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Patnaik, Rasmi
2018-03-01
Industrialization has brought economic prosperity; additionally it has resulted in more population, urbanization, obvious stress on the basic life supporting systems while pushing the environmental impacts closer to the threshold limits of tolerance. With booming industrial growth and relatively low land mass, environmental sustainability is now becoming a significant deciding factor in industrial development process. Accumulating evidences constantly indicate that the transition of the existing industries into eco-industrial network through successful implementation of green approaches provides a viable solution to preserve the natural resources of the region while concurrently enhances the regional economy on a sustainable basis. It calls for an appropriate planning and integrated framework in harmony with the environment, after careful assessment of past and prevailing conditions. The empirical knowledge on affected area helps understanding the local context and developing further course of action based on ground realities. With this aim, a study was conducted on the current industrial pollution and environmental setting of Puducherry. A causal chain analysis indicated severe impacts of industrialization on local environment while highlighting its immediate and root causes. The findings form a base for suggesting sustainable solutions to curb rampant pollution in Puducherry region and similar scenarios found across the world.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schroeer, K.; Kirchengast, G.
2016-12-01
Relating precipitation intensity to temperature is a popular approach to assess potential changes of extreme events in a warming climate. Potential increases in extreme rainfall induced hazards, such as flash flooding, serve as motivation. It has not been addressed whether the temperature-precipitation scaling approach is meaningful on a regional to local level, where the risk of climate and weather impact is dealt with. Substantial variability of temperature sensitivity of extreme precipitation has been found that results from differing methodological assumptions as well as from varying climatological settings of the study domains. Two aspects are consistently found: First, temperature sensitivities beyond the expected consistency with the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) equation are a feature of short-duration, convective, sub-daily to sub-hourly high-percentile rainfall intensities at mid-latitudes. Second, exponential growth ceases or reverts at threshold temperatures that vary from region to region, as moisture supply becomes limited. Analyses of pooled data, or of single or dispersed stations over large areas make it difficult to estimate the consequences in terms of local climate risk. In this study we test the meaningfulness of the scaling approach from an impact scale perspective. Temperature sensitivities are assessed using quantile regression on hourly and sub-hourly precipitation data from 189 stations in the Austrian south-eastern Alpine region. The observed scaling rates vary substantially, but distinct regional and seasonal patterns emerge. High sensitivity exceeding CC-scaling is seen on the 10-minute scale more than on the hourly scale, in storms shorter than 2 hours duration, and in shoulder seasons, but it is not necessarily a significant feature of the extremes. To be impact relevant, change rates need to be linked to absolute rainfall amounts. We show that high scaling rates occur in lower temperature conditions and thus have smaller effect on absolute
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lee, Eunjee; Koster, Randal D.; Ott, Lesley E.; Weir, Brad; Mahanama, Sarith; Chang, Yehui; Zeng, Fan-Wei
2017-01-01
Understanding the underlying processes that control the carbon cycle is key to predicting future global change. Much of the uncertainty in the magnitude and variability of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) stems from uncertainty in terrestrial carbon fluxes, and the relative impacts of temperature and moisture variations on regional and global scales are poorly understood. Here we investigate the impact of a regional drought on terrestrial carbon fluxes and CO2 mixing ratios over North America using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Model. Results show a sequence of changes in carbon fluxes and atmospheric CO2, induced by the drought. The relative contributions of meteorological changes to the neighboring carbon dynamics are also presented. The coupled modeling approach allows a direct quantification of the impact of the regional drought on local and proximate carbon exchange at the land surface via the carbon-water feedback processes.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Teanby, N. A.
2015-08-01
In 2016 NASA will launch the InSight discovery-class mission, which aims to study the detailed internal structure of Mars for the first time. Short- and long-period seismometers form a major component of InSight's payload and have the potential to detect seismic waves generated by meteorite impacts. Large globally detectable impact events producing craters with diameters of ∼ 100 m have been investigated previously and are likely to be rare (Teanby, N.A., Wookey, J. [2011]. Phys. Earth Planet. Int. 186, 70-80), but smaller impacts producing craters in the 0.5-20 m range are more numerous and potentially occur sufficiently often to be detectable on regional scales (≲1000 km). At these distances, seismic waves will have significant high frequency content and will be suited to detection with InSight's short-period seismometer SEIS-SP. In this paper I estimate the current martian crater production function from observations of new craters (Malin, M.C. et al. [2006]. Science 314, 1573-1577; Daubar, I.J. et al. [2013]. Icarus 225, 506-516), model results (Williams, J.P., Pathare, A.V., Aharonson, O. [2014]. Icarus 235, 23-36), and standard isochrons (Hartmann, W.K. [2005]. Icarus 174, 294-320). These impact rates are combined with an empirical relation between impact energy, source-receiver distance, and peak seismogram amplitude, derived from a compilation of seismic recordings of terrestrial and lunar impacts, chemical explosions, and nuclear tests. The resulting peak seismogram amplitude scaling law contains significant uncertainty, but can be used to predict impact detection rates. I estimate that for a short-period instrument, with a noise spectral density of 10-8 ms-2 Hz-1/2 in the 1-16 Hz frequency band, approximately 0.1-30 regional impacts per year should be detectable with a nominal value of 1-3 impacts per year. Therefore, small regional impacts are likely to be a viable source of seismic energy for probing Mars' crustal and upper mantle structure. This is
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Florke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.;
2017-01-01
Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity to climate variability and climate change is comparable for impact models designed for either scale. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of the two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases, but have distinct differences in other cases, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability. Whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models calibrated and validated against observed discharge should be used.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.
Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity of impact models designed for either scale to climate variability and change is comparable. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climatemore » change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a much better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases with distinct differences in others, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability, but whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models validated against observed discharge should be used.« less
Schulze, Jule; Frank, Karin; Priess, Joerg A; Meyer, Markus A
2016-01-01
Meeting the world's growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape. This
Schulze, Jule; Frank, Karin; Priess, Joerg A.; Meyer, Markus A.
2016-01-01
Meeting the world’s growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape
Bradford, John B.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Lauenroth, William K.; Burke, Ingrid C.
2014-01-01
5. Synthesis. This study provides a novel, regional-scale assessment of how plant functional type transitions may impact ecosystem water balance in sagebrush-dominated ecosystems of North America. Results illustrate that the ecohydrological consequences of changing vegetation depend strongly on climate and suggest that decreasing woody plant abundance may have only limited impact on evapotranspiration and water yield.
Andrew Gray
2008-01-01
Invasions of nonnative plants into new regions have a tremendous impact on many natural and managed ecosystems affecting their composition and function. Nonnative invasive species have a large economic impact through lost or degraded land costs, and are a primary cause of extinction of native species.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yim, S. H. L.; Wong, M.; Wang, Y.; Chan, A.
2016-12-01
The Pearl River Delta region has undergone a rapid urbanization in recent several decades. Literature has found significant impacts on climate and air quality. Previous studies however mainly investigated the impacts on climate and ozone concentration in a relatively short time period. None of them investigated the monthly variation in impacts on ozone (O3) and fine particulate matters (PM2.5), and the atmospheric sensitivity to emissions, which are particularly important for atmospheric scientists and policy makers. In this study, we used the state-of-the-art atmospheric regional models with the technique of high-order decoupled direct method to quantify the impacts of urbanization on not only the regional climate and O3 concentration but also the O3 sensitivities to emissions of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compound. Our preliminary results show that the urbanization shifts the energy budget from latent heat to sensible heat and ground heat storage. These changes cause an increase in ground level temperature and planetary boundary layer with a maximum annual change of 1.7ºC and 330m, respectively, and a reduction of relative humidity and wind speed up to 9.6% and 0.5m/s, respectively. Such changes are favorable to air pollution. Compared to the two land-use scenarios, we found that O3 increases by 14.2%, while PM2.5 decreases by 16.9% in urban areas. Due to urbanization, the O3 sensitivities to nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compound (VOC) change by 2.4% and 47.5%, respectively. This indicates that the atmospheric response in the region tends to be more sensitive to emission changes after urbanization. Our findings pinpoint that urbanization can significantly affect not only the regional climate and air quality but also the atmospheric responses to emission changes, highlighting the significant interactions between land-use policies, and climate and air quality policies.
An analysis of the impacts of global climate and emissions changes on regional tropospheric ozone
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
John, Kuruvilla; Crist, Kevin C.; Carmichael, Gregory R.
1994-01-01
Many of the synergistic impacts resulting from future changes in emissions as well as changes in ambient temperature, moisture, and UV flux have not been quantified. A three-dimensional regional-scale photo-chemical model (STEM-2) is used in this study to evaluate these perturbations to trace gas cycles over the eastern half of the United States of America. The model was successfully used to simulate a regional-scale ozone episode (base case - June 1984) and four perturbations scenarios - viz., perturbed emissions, temperature, water vapor column, and incoming UV flux cases, and a future scenario (for the year 2034). The impact of these perturbation scenarios on the distribution of ozone and other major pollutants such as SO2 and sulfates were analyzed in detail. The spatial distribution and the concentration of ozone at the surface increased by about 5-15 percent for most cases except for the perturbed water vapor case. The regional scale surface ozone concentration distribution for the year 2034 (future scenario) showed an increase of non-attainment areas. The rural areas of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Georgia showed the largest change in the surface ozone field for the futuristic scenario when compared to the base case.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Yongyong; Zhou, Yujian; Shao, Quanxi; Liu, Hongbin; Lei, Qiuliang; Zhai, Xiaoyan; Wang, Xuelei
2016-12-01
Diffuse nutrient loss mechanism is complicated and shows remarkably regional differences due to spatial heterogeneities of underlying surface conditions, climate and agricultural practices. Moreover, current available observations are still hard to support the identification of impact factors due to different time or space steps. In this study, an integrated water system model (HEQM) was adopted to obtain the simulated loads of diffuse components (carriers: runoff and sediment; nutrient: total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorous (TP)) with synchronous scales. Multivariable statistical analysis approaches (Analysis of Similarity and redundancy analysis) were used to assess the regional differences, and to identify impact factors as well as their contributions. Four catchments were selected as our study areas, i.e., Xiahui and Zhangjiafen Catchments of Miyun Basin in North China, Yuliang and Tunxi Catchments of Xin'anjiang Basin in South China. Results showed that the model performances of monthly processes were very good for runoff and good for sediment, TN and TP. The annual average coefficients of all the diffuse components in Xin'anjiang Basin were much greater than those in Miyun Basin, and showed significantly regional differences. All the selected impact factors interpreted 72.87-82.16% of the regional differences of carriers, and 62.72-71.62% of those of nutrient coefficients, respectively. For individual impact factor categories, the critical category was geography, followed by land-use/cover, carriers, climate, as well as soil and agricultural practices in Miyun Basin, or agricultural practices and soil in Xin'anjiang Basin. For individual factors, the critical factors were locations for the carrier regional differences, and carriers or chemical fertilizer for the nutrient regional differences. This study is expected to promote further applications of integrated water system model and multivariable statistical analysis in the diffuse nutrient studies, and
Adapting crop rotations to climate change in regional impact modelling assessments.
Teixeira, Edmar I; de Ruiter, John; Ausseil, Anne-Gaelle; Daigneault, Adam; Johnstone, Paul; Holmes, Allister; Tait, Andrew; Ewert, Frank
2018-03-01
The environmental and economic sustainability of future cropping systems depends on adaptation to climate change. Adaptation studies commonly rely on agricultural systems models to integrate multiple components of production systems such as crops, weather, soil and farmers' management decisions. Previous adaptation studies have mostly focused on isolated monocultures. However, in many agricultural regions worldwide, multi-crop rotations better represent local production systems. It is unclear how adaptation interventions influence crops grown in sequences. We develop a catchment-scale assessment to investigate the effects of tactical adaptations (choice of genotype and sowing date) on yield and underlying crop-soil factors of rotations. Based on locally surveyed data, a silage-maize followed by catch-crop-wheat rotation was simulated with the APSIM model for the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, two time periods (1985-2004 and 2080-2100) and six climate models across the Kaituna catchment in New Zealand. Results showed that direction and magnitude of climate change impacts, and the response to adaptation, varied spatially and were affected by rotation carryover effects due to agronomical (e.g. timing of sowing and harvesting) and soil (e.g. residual nitrogen, N) aspects. For example, by adapting maize to early-sowing dates under a warmer climate, there was an advance in catch crop establishment which enhanced residual soil N uptake. This dynamics, however, differed with local environment and choice of short- or long-cycle maize genotypes. Adaptation was insufficient to neutralize rotation yield losses in lowlands but consistently enhanced yield gains in highlands, where other constraints limited arable cropping. The positive responses to adaptation were mainly due to increases in solar radiation interception across the entire growth season. These results provide deeper insights on the dynamics of climate change impacts for crop rotation systems. Such knowledge can be used
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hargrove, W. L.; Del Rio, M.; Korc, M.
2017-12-01
Using Health Impact Assessment methods, we determined: 1) the impact of water and sanitation infrastructure installed about 15 years ago in two Texas border communities; 2) the impact of failing septic tanks in a neighborhood where septic systems are more than 20 years old and failing; and 3) the impacts of hauled water as the main household water source in a colonia. We obtained a total of 147 household surveys related to water and sanitation in four communities. Households who had obtained water and sanitation infrastructure had less skin problems, neuropathy, gastrointestinal illness, and stomach infections compared to an earlier time when they relied on local domestic wells or hauled water and septic tanks. Hepatitis A incidence in El Paso County, TX dropped precipitously after the implementation of water and sanitation infrastructure. Hauling water contributed to mental stress and anxiety and was risky in terms of road safety. We also assessed the economic and community development impacts of water and sanitation infrastructure. Communities benefitted from higher property values, expanded health care services, more parks and recreation, more local businesses, and improved fire safety. We argue that though water and sanitation infrastructure is a significant contributor to addressing inequities in the border region, much remains to be done to achieve water justice in this challenging region.
Impact of High Resolution SST Data on Regional Weather Forecasts
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Jedlovec, Gary J.; Case, Jonathon; LaFontaine, Frank; Vazquez, Jorge; Mattocks, Craig
2010-01-01
Past studies have shown that the use of coarse resolution SST products such as from the real-time global (RTG) SST analysis[1] or other coarse resolution once-a-day products do not properly portray the diurnal variability of fluxes of heat and moisture from the ocean that drive the formation of low level clouds and precipitation over the ocean. For example, the use of high resolution MODIS SST composite [2] to initialize the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) (ARW) [3] has been shown to improve the prediction of sensible weather parameters in coastal regions [4][5}. In an extend study, [6] compared the MODIS SST composite product to the RTG SST analysis and evaluated forecast differences for a 6 month period from March through August 2007 over the Florida coastal regions. In a comparison to buoy data, they found that that the MODIS SST composites reduced the bias and standard deviation over that of the RTG data. These improvements led to significant changes in the initial and forecasted heat fluxes and the resulting surface temperature fields, wind patterns, and cloud distributions. They also showed that the MODIS composite SST product, produced for the Terra and Aqua satellite overpass times, captured a component of the diurnal cycle in SSTs not represented in the RTG or other one-a-day SST analyses. Failure to properly incorporate these effects in the WRF initialization cycle led to temperature biases in the resulting short term forecasts. The forecast impact was limited in some situations however, due to composite product inaccuracies brought about by data latency during periods of long-term cloud cover. This paper focuses on the forecast impact of an enhanced MODIS/AMSR-E composite SST product designed to reduce inaccuracies due data latency in the MODIS only composite product.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tao, F.; Rötter, R.
2013-12-01
Many studies on global climate report that climate variability is increasing with more frequent and intense extreme events1. There are quite large uncertainties from both the plot- and regional-scale models in simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes on crop development, growth and productivity2,3. One key to reducing the uncertainties is better exploitation of experimental data to eliminate crop model deficiencies and develop better algorithms that more adequately capture the impacts of extreme events, such as high temperature and drought, on crop performance4,5. In the present study, in a first step, the inter-annual variability in wheat yield and climate from 1971 to 2012 in Finland was investigated. Using statistical approaches the impacts of climate variability and extremes on wheat growth and productivity were quantified. In a second step, a plot-scale model, WOFOST6, and a regional-scale crop model, MCWLA7, were calibrated and validated, and applied to simulate wheat growth and yield variability from 1971-2012. Next, the estimated impacts of high temperature stress, cold damage, and drought stress on crop growth and productivity based on the statistical approaches, and on crop simulation models WOFOST and MCWLA were compared. Then, the impact mechanisms of climate extremes on crop growth and productivity in the WOFOST model and MCWLA model were identified, and subsequently, the various algorithm and impact functions were fitted against the long-term crop trial data. Finally, the impact mechanisms, algorithms and functions in WOFOST model and MCWLA model were improved to better simulate the impacts of climate variability and extremes, particularly high temperature stress, cold damage and drought stress for location-specific and large area climate impact assessments. Our studies provide a good example of how to improve, in parallel, the plot- and regional-scale models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes, as needed for
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Cradle-to-farm gate environmental impacts of beef production in two cattle producing regions were assessed as part of an on-going national sustainability study of the U.S. beef value chain launched by the Beef Checkoff. Region-specific data on common ranch and feedlot management practices were chara...
Impacts of Megacities on Regional Air Quality from MOPITT Observations and MOZART Model Results
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Emmons, L. K.; Edwards, D. P.; Hess, P. G.; Lamarque, J.; Pfister, G.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Clerbaux, C.
2007-05-01
The emissions from large cities, such as Mexico City, Los Angeles and Tokyo, as well as densely populated regions in India, China, etc., can clearly be seen in the CO retrievals from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument on the Terra satellite and will be illustrated in this presentation. To assist in the flight planning and analysis of the MILAGRO field campaigns in Mexico during March 2006, MOPITT CO retrievals were assimilated in the global chemical transport model MOZART, using fire emissions based on satellite observations. To understand the impacts of Mexico City and other megacities on regional air quality, additional simulations of MOZART have been performed. The CO emissions from different types of sources (biomass burning, industry, etc.) are "tagged" in the model to show their relative contribution to the regional atmospheric composition. In addition, NO emissions from a single megacity or region are tagged to identify the contribution of ozone from a given source. The contribution from Mexico City pollution to the regional and global atmosphere will be compared to other megacities.
Simulating the Regional Impact of Dust on the Middle East Climate and the Red Sea
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Osipov, Sergey; Stenchikov, Georgiy
2018-02-01
The Red Sea is located between North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, the largest sources of dust in the world. Satellite retrievals show very high aerosol optical depth in the region, which increases during the summer season, especially over the southern Red Sea. Previously estimated and validated radiative effect from dust is expected to have a profound thermal and dynamic impact on the Red Sea, but that impact has not yet been studied or evaluated. Due to the strong dust radiative effect at the sea surface, uncoupled ocean modeling approaches with prescribed atmospheric boundary conditions result in an unrealistic ocean response. Therefore, to study the impact of dust on the regional climate of the Middle East and the Red Sea, we employed the Regional Ocean Modeling System fully coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model. We modified the atmospheric model to account for the radiative effect of dust. The simulations show that, in the equilibrium response, dust cools the Red Sea, reduces the surface wind speed, and weakens both the exchange at the Bab-el-Mandeb strait and the overturning circulation. The salinity distribution, freshwater, and heat budgets are significantly altered. A validation of the simulations against satellite products indicates that accounting for radiative effect from dust almost completely removes the bias and reduces errors in the top of the atmosphere fluxes and sea surface temperature. Our results suggest that dust plays an important role in the energy balance, thermal, and circulation regimes in the Red Sea.
Impact of region contouring variability on image-based focal therapy evaluation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gibson, Eli; Donaldson, Ian A.; Shah, Taimur T.; Hu, Yipeng; Ahmed, Hashim U.; Barratt, Dean C.
2016-03-01
Motivation: Focal therapy is an emerging low-morbidity treatment option for low-intermediate risk prostate cancer; however, challenges remain in accurately delivering treatment to specified targets and determining treatment success. Registered multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (MPMRI) acquired before and after treatment can support focal therapy evaluation and optimization; however, contouring variability, when defining the prostate, the clinical target volume (CTV) and the ablation region in images, reduces the precision of quantitative image-based focal therapy evaluation metrics. To inform the interpretation and clarify the limitations of such metrics, we investigated inter-observer contouring variability and its impact on four metrics. Methods: Pre-therapy and 2-week-post-therapy standard-of-care MPMRI were acquired from 5 focal cryotherapy patients. Two clinicians independently contoured, on each slice, the prostate (pre- and post-treatment) and the dominant index lesion CTV (pre-treatment) in the T2-weighted MRI, and the ablated region (post-treatment) in the dynamic-contrast- enhanced MRI. For each combination of clinician contours, post-treatment images were registered to pre-treatment images using a 3D biomechanical-model-based registration of prostate surfaces, and four metrics were computed: the proportion of the target tissue region that was ablated and the target:ablated region volume ratio for each of two targets (the CTV and an expanded planning target volume). Variance components analysis was used to measure the contribution of each type of contour to the variance in the therapy evaluation metrics. Conclusions: 14-23% of evaluation metric variance was attributable to contouring variability (including 6-12% from ablation region contouring); reducing this variability could improve the precision of focal therapy evaluation metrics.
Cao, Qian; Yu, Deyong; Georgescu, Matei; Wu, Jianguo
2018-06-01
China's rapid socioeconomic development during the past few decades has resulted in large-scale landscape changes across the country. However, the impacts of these land surface modifications on climate are yet to be adequately understood. Using a coupled process-based land-atmospheric model, therefore, we quantified the climatic effects of land cover and land management changes over mainland China from 2001 to 2010, via incorporation of real-time and high-quality satellite-derived landscape representation (i.e., vegetation fraction, leaf area index, and albedo) into numerical modeling. Our results show that differences in landscape patterns due to changes in land cover and land management have exerted a strong influence on summer climate in China. During 2001 and 2010, extensive cooling of up to 1.5°C was found in the Loess Plateau and 1.0°C in northeastern China. In contrast, regional-scale warming was detected in the Tibetan Plateau (0.3°C), Yunnan province (0.4°C), and rapidly expanding urban centers across China (as high as 2°C). Summer precipitation decreased in the northeastern region, with patchy reduction generally <1.8mm/day, but increased in the Loess Plateau, with local spikes up to 2.4mm/day. Our study highlights that human alterations of landscapes have had substantial impacts on summer climate over the entire mainland China, but these impacts varied greatly on the regional scale, including changes in opposite directions. Therefore, effective national-level policies and regional land management strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation should take explicit account of the spatial heterogeneity of landscape-climate interactions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Bai, Cui-fen; Gao, Wen-Sheng; Liu, Tong
2013-01-01
Regression analysis is applied to quantitatively analyze the impact of different ambient temperature characteristics on the transformer life at different locations of Chinese mainland. 200 typical locations in Chinese mainland are selected for the study. They are specially divided into six regions so that the subsequent analysis can be done in a regional context. For each region, the local historical ambient temperature and load data are provided as inputs variables of the life consumption model in IEEE Std. C57.91-1995 to estimate the transformer life at every location. Five ambient temperature indicators related to the transformer life are involved into the partial least squares regression to describe their impact on the transformer life. According to a contribution measurement criterion of partial least squares regression, three indicators are conclusively found to be the most important factors influencing the transformer life, and an explicit expression is provided to describe the relationship between the indicators and the transformer life for every region. The analysis result is applicable to the area where the temperature characteristics are similar to Chinese mainland, and the expressions obtained can be applied to the other locations that are not included in this paper if these three indicators are known. PMID:23843729
Bai, Cui-fen; Gao, Wen-Sheng; Liu, Tong
2013-01-01
Regression analysis is applied to quantitatively analyze the impact of different ambient temperature characteristics on the transformer life at different locations of Chinese mainland. 200 typical locations in Chinese mainland are selected for the study. They are specially divided into six regions so that the subsequent analysis can be done in a regional context. For each region, the local historical ambient temperature and load data are provided as inputs variables of the life consumption model in IEEE Std. C57.91-1995 to estimate the transformer life at every location. Five ambient temperature indicators related to the transformer life are involved into the partial least squares regression to describe their impact on the transformer life. According to a contribution measurement criterion of partial least squares regression, three indicators are conclusively found to be the most important factors influencing the transformer life, and an explicit expression is provided to describe the relationship between the indicators and the transformer life for every region. The analysis result is applicable to the area where the temperature characteristics are similar to Chinese mainland, and the expressions obtained can be applied to the other locations that are not included in this paper if these three indicators are known.
Investigation and Development of Data-Driven D-Region Model for HF Systems Impacts
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Eccles, J. V.; Rice, D.; Sojka, J. J.; Hunsucker, R. D.
2002-01-01
Space Environment Corporation (SEC) and RP Consultants (RPC) are to develop and validate a weather-capable D region model for making High Frequency (HF) absorption predictions in support of the HF communications and radar communities. The weather-capable model will assimilate solar and earth space observations from NASA satellites. The model will account for solar-induced impacts on HF absorption, including X-rays, Solar Proton Events (SPE's), and auroral precipitation. The work plan includes: I . Optimize D-region model to quickly obtain ion and electron densities for proper HF absorption calculations. 2. Develop indices-driven modules for D-region ionization sources for low, mid, & high latitudes including X-rays, cosmic rays, auroral precipitation, & solar protons. (Note: solar spectrum & auroral modules already exist). 3. Setup low-cost monitors of existing HF beacons and add one single-frequency beacon. 4. Use PENEX HF-link database with HF monitor data to validate D-region/HF absorption model using climatological ionization drivers. 5. Develop algorithms to assimilate NASA satellite data of solar, interplanetary, and auroral observations into ionization source modules. 6. Use PENEX HF-link & HF-beacon data for skill score comparison of assimilation versus climatological D-region/HF absorption model. Only some satellites are available for the PENEX time period, thus, HF-beacon data is necessary. 7. Use HF beacon monitors to develop HF-link data assimilation algorithms for regional improvement to the D-region/HF absorption model.
Regional United States electric field and GIC hazard impacts (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gannon, J. L.; Balch, C. C.; Trichtchenko, L.
2013-12-01
Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) are primarily driven by impulsive geomagnetic disturbances created by the interaction between the Earth's magnetosphere and sharp velocity, density, and magnetic field enhancements in the solar wind. However, the magnitude of the induced electric field response at the ground level, and therefore the resulting hazard to the bulk power system, is determined not only by magnetic drivers, but also by the underlying geology. Convolution techniques are used to calculate surface electric fields beginning from the spectral characteristics of magnetic field drivers and the frequency response of the local geology. Using these techniques, we describe historical scenarios for regions across the United States, and the potential impact of large events on electric power infrastructure.
Climate change and its potential impacts on the Gulf Coast region of the United States.
Tchounwou, P B
1999-01-01
The Gulf Coast region of the United States abuts five states, including Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas. In general, the Gulf of Mexico has a surface area of 1.63 million square kilometers (630,000 square miles) and a watershed area of 4.69 million square kilometers (1.81 million square miles) in the United States. This region is one of the nation's largest ecological systems and is closely linked to a significant portion of the nation's economy. In the Gulf Coast region, energy, fisheries, agriculture, and tourism rank among the most significant sectors of the economy. The Gulf has five of the top ten fishing ports in the United States, and commercial fisheries in the Gulf annually produce nearly 2 billion tons of fish, oysters, shrimps, and crabs. Gulf ports handle one-half of the nation's import-export tonnage. Petroleum produced in the Gulf represents about 80% of the nation's offshore production. The Gulf Coast region largely relies on many natural resources to fuel many important sectors of its economy. But nevertheless, the health and vitality of the Gulf have declined in recent years, caused in part by increasing populations along its coast and the growing demand upon its resources and in part by the accumulation of years of careless depletion, abuse, and neglect of the environment. Equally important are the impacts of natural and human-induced climate change on the economy and on the quality of life for millions of people living in the Gulf Coast region. The results have generated alarming increases in damage to and destruction of the ecosystems and habitats of the Gulf. This paper reviews the nature of global environmental change and addresses the potential health and environmental impacts that may occur in the Gulf Coast region of the United States as a consequence of various environmental alterations resulting from global change.
Outreach impact study: the case of the Greater Midwest Region.
Huber, Jeffrey T; Kean, Emily B; Fitzgerald, Philip D; Altman, Trina A; Young, Zach G; Dupin, Katherine M; Leskovec, Jacqueline; Holst, Ruth
2011-10-01
The purpose of the study was to assess the impact that funding from the National Network of Libraries of Medicine (NN/LM), Greater Midwest Region (GMR), has on member institutions' ability to conduct outreach on behalf of NN/LM. The study employed both content analysis and survey methodologies. The final reports from select GMR-funded outreach projects (n = 20) were analyzed based on a set of evaluation criteria. Project principal investigators (n = 13) were then surveyed using the same evaluation criteria. Results indicated that outreach projects supported by GMR funding improved access to biomedical information for professionals and the general public. Barriers to conducting outreach projects included time constraints or commitments, staffing, scheduling and absenteeism, inadequate space, and issues associated with technology (e.g., hardware and software, Internet connectivity and firewall issues, and creation and use of new technologies). The majority of project principal investigators indicated that their attempts to conduct outreach were successful. Moreover, most noted that outreach had a positive impact on professionals as well as the general public. In general, it seems that negative outcomes, as with most barriers to conducting outreach, can be mitigated by more thorough planning.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhou, L.; Baker, K. R.; Napelenok, S. L.; Elleman, R. A.; Urbanski, S. P.
2016-12-01
Biomass burning, including wildfires and prescribed burns, strongly impact the global carbon cycle and are of increasing concern due to the potential impacts on ambient air quality. This modelling study focuses on the evolution of carbonaceous compounds during a prescribed burning experiment and assesses the impacts of burning on local to regional air quality. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is used to conduct 4 and 2 km grid resolution simulations of prescribed burning experiments in southeast Washington state and western Idaho state in summer 2013. The ground and airborne measurements from the field experiment are used to evaluate the model performance in capturing surface and aloft impacts from the burning events. Phase partitioning of organic compounds in the plume are studied as it is a crucial step towards understanding the fate of carbonaceous compounds. The sensitivities of ambient concentrations and deposition to emissions are conducted for organic carbon, elemental carbon and ozone to estimate the impacts of fire on air quality.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xie, X.; Liang, S.
2013-12-01
The Three-North region of China, including the northeastern, northern, and northwestern areas, covers an area of more than three million square kilometers. This region is featured for its arid and semiarid environments with annual rainfall less than 450 mm. During the past few decades, the Three-North region has experienced noticeable water-cycle variations owing to the climate and land use changes. Typically, several large-scale forestation programs such as the Three Norths Forest Shelterbelt Program began since late 1970s, have been implemented across this region in order to solve desertification and dust storm problems, and to combat the loss of water and soil. These programs raised debates, however, because their effectiveness does not likely achieve what was expected and they even imposed negative influences on the eco-hydrologic system in some areas. Currently most studies were based on in-situ measurements and individual catchments and primarily attributed the water-cycle variations to the forestation. In this study we attempt to evaluate the impact of combined climate and land use changes using remote sensing data and a sophisticated land surface model, i.e., the Three-Layer Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC-3L). Four land use maps derived from Landsat TM images for 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005 were used to detect the land use changes in the three-north regions, and leaf area index (LAI) from the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) LAI product was employed to assess the land cover change and the effect of forestation programs. After model calibration and validation based on gauged streamflow and evapotranspiration from China FluxNet, a series of simulation scenarios were designed to examine the impacts of climate and land use changes on soil moisture, runoff and evapotranspiration and to identify each contribution to water fluxes. It was found that within the study area as a whole, LAI shows an increasing trend during 1980-2009 in response to the
Regional differences in the mid-Victorian diet and their impact on health.
Greaves, Peter
2018-03-01
The aim of this study was to examine the impact of regional diets on the health of the poor in mid-Victorian Britain. Contemporary surveys of regional diets and living condition were reviewed. This information was compared with mortality data from Britain over the same period. Although there was an overall improvement in life expectancy during the latter part of the 19th century, there were large regional differences in lifestyle, diet and mortality rates. Dietary surveys showed that the poor labouring population in isolated rural areas of England, in the mainland and islands of Scotland and in the west of Ireland enjoyed the most nutritious diets. These regions also showed the lowest mortality rates in Britain. This was not simply the result of better sanitation and less mortality from food and waterborne infections but also fewer deaths from pulmonary tuberculosis, which is typically associated with better nutrition. These more isolated regions where a peasant-style culture provided abundant locally produced cheap foodstuffs such as potatoes, vegetables, whole grains, and milk and fish, were in the process of disappearing in the face of increasing urbanisation. This was to the detriment of many rural poor during the latter half of the century. Conversely, increasing urbanisation, with its improved transport links, brought greater availability and diversity of foods to many others. It was this that that led to an improved nutrition and life expectancy for the majority in urbanising Britain, despite the detrimental effects of increasing food refinement.
Octarepeat region flexibility impacts prion function, endoproteolysis and disease manifestation
Lau, Agnes; McDonald, Alex; Daude, Nathalie; Mays, Charles E; Walter, Eric D; Aglietti, Robin; Mercer, Robert CC; Wohlgemuth, Serene; van der Merwe, Jacques; Yang, Jing; Gapeshina, Hristina; Kim, Chae; Grams, Jennifer; Shi, Beipei; Wille, Holger; Balachandran, Aru; Schmitt-Ulms, Gerold; Safar, Jiri G; Millhauser, Glenn L; Westaway, David
2015-01-01
The cellular prion protein (PrPC) comprises a natively unstructured N-terminal domain, including a metal-binding octarepeat region (OR) and a linker, followed by a C-terminal domain that misfolds to form PrPSc in Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. PrPC β-endoproteolysis to the C2 fragment allows PrPSc formation, while α-endoproteolysis blocks production. To examine the OR, we used structure-directed design to make novel alleles, ‘S1’ and ‘S3’, locking this region in extended or compact conformations, respectively. S1 and S3 PrP resembled WT PrP in supporting peripheral nerve myelination. Prion-infected S1 and S3 transgenic mice both accumulated similar low levels of PrPSc and infectious prion particles, but differed in their clinical presentation. Unexpectedly, S3 PrP overproduced C2 fragment in the brain by a mechanism distinct from metal-catalysed hydrolysis reported previously. OR flexibility is concluded to impact diverse biological endpoints; it is a salient variable in infectious disease paradigms and modulates how the levels of PrPSc and infectivity can either uncouple or engage to drive the onset of clinical disease. PMID:25661904
Marine species in ambient low-oxygen regions subject to double jeopardy impacts of climate change.
Stortini, Christine H; Chabot, Denis; Shackell, Nancy L
2017-06-01
We have learned much about the impacts of warming on the productivity and distribution of marine organisms, but less about the impact of warming combined with other environmental stressors, including oxygen depletion. Also, the combined impact of multiple environmental stressors requires evaluation at the scales most relevant to resource managers. We use the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada, characterized by a large permanently hypoxic zone, as a case study. Species distribution models were used to predict the impact of multiple scenarios of warming and oxygen depletion on the local density of three commercially and ecologically important species. Substantial changes are projected within 20-40 years. A eurythermal depleted species already limited to shallow, oxygen-rich refuge habitat (Atlantic cod) may be relatively uninfluenced by oxygen depletion but increase in density within refuge areas with warming. A more stenothermal, deep-dwelling species (Greenland halibut) is projected to lose ~55% of its high-density areas under the combined impacts of warming and oxygen depletion. Another deep-dwelling, more eurythermal species (Northern shrimp) would lose ~4% of its high-density areas due to oxygen depletion alone, but these impacts may be buffered by warming, which may increase density by 8% in less hypoxic areas, but decrease density by ~20% in the warmest parts of the region. Due to local climate variability and extreme events, and that our models cannot project changes in species sensitivity to hypoxia with warming, our results should be considered conservative. We present an approach to effectively evaluate the individual and cumulative impacts of multiple environmental stressors on a species-by-species basis at the scales most relevant to managers. Our study may provide a basis for work in other low-oxygen regions and should contribute to a growing literature base in climate science, which will continue to be of support for resource managers as climate change
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Snell, Julia; Andrews, Richard
2017-01-01
The issue of whether a regional accent and/or dialect impact(s) on the development of literacy skills remains current in the UK. For decades the issue has dogged debate concerning education outcomes, portable skills and employability. This article summarises research on the topic using systematic review methodology. A scoping review was undertaken…
Fugitives from the Hungaria region: Close encounters and impacts with terrestrial planets
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Galiazzo, M. A.; Bazsó, Á.; Dvorak, R.
2013-08-01
Statistical downscaling of regional climate scenarios for the French Alps : Impacts on snow cover
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rousselot, M.; Durand, Y.; Giraud, G.; Mérindol, L.; Déqué, M.; Sanchez, E.; Pagé, C.; Hasan, A.
2010-12-01
Mountain areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Owing to the complexity of mountain terrain, climate research at scales relevant for impacts studies and decisive for stakeholders is challenging. A possible way to bridge the gap between these fine scales and those of the general circulation models (GCMs) consists of combining high-resolution simulations of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to statistical downscaling methods. The present work is based on such an approach. It aims at investigating the impacts of climate change on snow cover in the French Alps for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under several IPCC hypotheses. An analogue method based on high resolution atmospheric fields from various RCMs and climate reanalyses is used to simulate local climate scenarios. These scenarios, which provide meteorological parameters relevant for snowpack evolution, subsequently feed the CROCUS snow model. In these simulations, various sources of uncertainties are thus considered (several greenhouse gases emission scenarios and RCMs). Results are obtained for different regions of the French Alps at various altitudes. For all scenarios, temperature increase is relatively uniform over the Alps. This regional warming is larger than that generally modeled at the global scale (IPCC, 2007), and particularly strong in summer. Annual precipitation amounts seem to decrease, mainly as a result of decreasing precipitation trends in summer and fall. As a result of these climatic evolutions, there is a general decrease of the mean winter snow depth and seasonal snow duration for all massifs. Winter snow depths are particularly reduced in the Northern Alps. However, the impact on seasonal snow duration is more significant in the Southern and Extreme Southern Alps, since these regions are already characterized by small winter snow depths at low elevations. Reference : IPCC (2007a). Climate change 2007 : The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the
Xiao, Hanqiong; Li, Wei; Ma, Ruixia; Gong, Zhengpeng; Shi, Haibo; Li, Huawei; Chen, Bing; Jiang, Ye; Dai, Chunfu
2015-06-01
To describe tne regional different factors which impact on early cochlear implantation in prelingual deaf children between eastern and western regions of China. The charts of 113 children who received the cochlear implantation after 24 months old were reviewed and analyzed. Forty-five of them came from the eastern region (Jiangsu, Zhejiang or Shanghai) while 68 of them came from the western region (Ningxia or Guizhou). Parental interviews were conducted to collect information regarding the factors that impact on early cochlear implantation. Result:Based on the univariate logistic regression analysis, the odds ratio (OR) value of universal newborn hearing screening (UNHS) was 5. 481, which indicated the correlation of UNHS with early cochlear implantation is significant. There was statistical difference between the 2 groups (P<0. 01). For the financial burden, the OR value was 3. 521(strong correlation) and there was statistical difference between the 2 groups (P<0. 01). For the communication barriers and community location, the OR value was 0. 566 and 1. 128 respectively, and there was no statistical difference between the 2 groups (P>0. 05). The multivariate analysis indicated that the UNHS and financial burden are statistically different between the eastern and western regions (P=0. 00 and 0. 040 respectively). The UNHS and financial burden are statistically different between the eastern reinforced in the western region. In addition, the government and society should provide powerful policy and more financial support in the western region of China. The innovation of management system is also helpful to the early cochlear implantation.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John
2015-01-01
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Antle, J. M.; Elliott, J. W.
2015-12-01
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIP's community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPs/SSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate change's impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIP's 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment
Climate change impacts on the nutrient losses of two watersheds in the Great Lakes region
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Non-point sources (NPS) of agricultural chemical pollution are one major reason for the degradation of water quality in the Great Lakes. This study focuses on quantifying the impacts of climate change on nutrient (Nitrogen and Phosphorus) losses from NPS in the Great Lakes region through the end of ...
Linking intended visitation to regional economic impact models of bison and elk management
Loomis, J.; Caughlan, L.
2004-01-01
This article links intended National Park visitation estimates to regional economic models to calculate the employment impacts of alternative bison and elk management strategies. The survey described alternative National Elk Refuge (NER) management actions and the effects on elk and bison populations at the NER and adjacent Grand Teton National Park (GTNP). Park visitors were then asked if they would change their number of visits with each potential management action. Results indicate there would be a 10% decrease in visitation if bison populations were reduced from 600 to 400 animals and elk populations were reduced in GTNP and the NER. The related decrease in jobs in Teton counties of Wyoming and Idaho is estimated at 5.5%. Adopting a “no active management” option of never feeding elk and bison on the NER yields about one-third the current bison population (200 bison) and about half the elk population. Visitors surveyed about this management option would take about 20% fewer trips, resulting in an 11.3% decrease in employment. Linking intended visitation surveys and regional economic models represents a useful tool for natural resource planners who must present the consequences of potential actions in Environmental Impact Statements and plans to the public and decision makers prior to any action being implemented.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lee, E.; Koster, R. D.; Ott, L. E.; Weir, B.; Mahanama, S. P. P.; Chang, Y.; Zeng, F.
2017-12-01
Understanding the underlying processes that control the carbon cycle is key to predicting future global change. Much of the uncertainty in the magnitude and variability of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) stems from uncertainty in terrestrial carbon fluxes. Budget-based analyses show that such fluxes exhibit substantial interannual variability, but the relative impacts of temperature and moisture variations on regional and global scales are poorly understood. Here we investigate the impact of a regional drought on terrestrial carbon fluxes and CO2 mixing ratios over North America using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Model. Two 48-member ensembles of NASA GEOS-5 simulations with fully coupled land and atmosphere carbon components are performed - a control ensemble and an ensemble with an artificially imposed dry land surface anomaly for three months (April-June) over the lower Mississippi River Valley. Comparison of the results using the ensemble approach allows a direct quantification of the impact of the regional drought on local and proximate carbon exchange at the land surface via the carbon-water feedback processes.
The impact of a model-based clinical regional registry for attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder.
Zanetti, Michele; Cartabia, Massimo; Didoni, Anna; Fortinguerra, Filomena; Reale, Laura; Mondini, Matteo; Bonati, Maurizio
2017-09-01
This article describes the development and clinical impact of the Italian Regional ADHD Registry, aimed at collecting and monitoring diagnostic and therapeutic pathways of care for attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder children and adolescents, launched by the Italian Lombardy Region in June 2011. In particular, the model-based software used to run the registry and manage clinical care data acquisition and monitoring, is described. This software was developed using the PROSAFE programme, which is already used for data collection in many Italian intensive care units, as a stand-alone interface case report form. The use of the attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder regional registry led to an increase in the appropriateness of the clinical management of all patients included in the registry, proving to be an important instrument in ensuring an appropriate healthcare strategy for children and adolescents with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Smith, C. G.; Marot, M. E.; Osterman, L. E.; Adams, C. S.; Haller, C.; Jones, M.
2016-12-01
Tropical cyclones are a major driver of change in coastal and estuarine environments. Heightened waves and sea level associated with tropical cyclones act to erode sediment from one environment and redistribute it to adjacent environments. The fate and transport of this redistributed material is of great importance to the long-term sediment budget, which in turns affects the vulnerability of these coastal systems. The spatial variance in both storm impacts and sediment redistribution is large. At the regional-scale, difference in storm impacts can often be attributed to natural variability in geologic parameters (sediment availability/erodibility), coastal geomorphology (including fetch, shoreline tortuosity, back-barrier versus estuarine shoreline, etc.), storm characteristics (intensity, duration, track/approach), and ecology (vegetation type, gradient, density). To assess storm characteristics and coastal geomorphology on a regional-scale, cores were collected from seven Juncus marshes located in coastal regions of Alabama and Mississippi (i.e., Mobile Bay, Bon Secour Bay, Mississippi Sound, and Grand Bay) expected to have been impacted by Hurricane Frederic (1979). All cores were sectioned and processed for water content, organic matter (loss-on-ignition), and select cores analyzed for foraminiferal assemblages, stable isotopes and bulk metals to aid in the identification of storm events. Excess lead-210 and cesium-137 were used to develop chronologies for the cores and evaluate mass accumulation rates and sedimentation rates. Temporal variations in accumulation rates of inorganic and organic sediments were compared with shoreline and areal change rates derived from historic aerial imagery to evaluate potential changes in sediment exchange prior to, during, and following the storm. A combined geospatial and geologic approach will improve our understanding of coastal change in estuarine marsh environments, as well help refine the influence of storms on regional
Impact of regional ventilation changes on surface particulate matter concentrations in South Korea
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, H. C.; Stein, A. F.; Chai, T.; Ngan, F.; Kim, B. U.; Jin, C. S.; Hong, S. Y.; Park, R.; Son, S. W.; Bae, C.; Bae, M.; Song, C. K.; Kim, S.
2017-12-01
The recent increase in surface particulate matter (PM) concentrations in South Korea is intriguing due to its disagreement with current intensive emission reduction efforts. The long-term trend of surface PM concentrations in South Korea declined in the 2000s, but since 2012 its concentrations have tended to increase, resulting in frequent severe haze events in the region. This study demonstrates that the interannual variation of surface PM concentrations in South Korea is not only affected by changes in local or regional emission sources, but also closely linked with the interannual variations in regional ventilation. Using EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system, a 12-year (2004-2015) regional air quality simulation was conducted to assess the impact of the meteorological conditions under constant anthropogenic emissions. In addition, NOAA HYSPLIT dispersion model was utilized to estimate the strength of regional ventilation that dissipates local pollutions. Simulated PM concentrations show a strong negative correlation (i.e. R=-0.86) with regional wind speed, implying that reduced regional ventilation is likely associated with more stagnant conditions that cause severe pollutant episodes in South Korea. We conclude that the current PM concentration trend in South Korea is a combination of long-term decline by emission control efforts and short-term fluctuations in regional wind speed interannual variability. When the meteorology-driven variations are removed, PM concentrations in South Korea have declined continuously even after 2012, with -1.45±0.12, -1.41±0.16, and -1.09±0.16 mg/m3 per year in Seoul, the Seoul Metropolitan Area, and South Korea, respectively.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Frieler, Katja; Meinshausen, Malte; Braun, Nadine; Hare, Bill
2010-05-01
Given the expected and already observed impacts of climate change there is growing agreement that global mean temperature rise should be limited to below 2 or 1.5 degrees. The translation of such a temperature target into guidelines for global emission reduction over the coming decades has become one of the most important and urgent tasks. In fact, there are four recent studies (Meinshausen et al. 2009, Allen et al. 2009, Matthews et al. 2009 and Zickfeld et al. 2009) which take a very comprehensive approach to quantifying the current uncertainties related to the question of what are the "allowed amounts" of global emissions given specific limits of global warming. Here, we present an extension of this budget approach allowing to focus on specific regional impacts. The method is based on probabilistic projections of regional temperature and precipitation changes providing the input for available impact functions. Using the example of Greenland's surface mass balance (Gregory et al., 2006) we will demonstrate how the probability of specific impacts can be described in dependence of global GHG emission budgets taking into account the uncertainty of global mean temperature projections as well as uncertainties of regional climate patterns varying from AOGCM to AOGCM. The method utilizes the AOGCM based linear relation between global mean temperature changes and regionally averaged changes in temperature and precipitation. It allows to handle the variations of regional climate projections from AR4 AOGCM runs independent of the uncertainties of global mean temperature change that are estimated by a simple climate model (Meinshausen et al., 2009). While the linearity of this link function is already established for temperature and to a lesser degree (depending on the region) also for precipitation (Santer et al. 1990; Mitchell et al. 1999; Giorgi et al., 2008; Solomon et al., 2009), we especially focus on the quantification of the uncertainty (in particularly the inter
Continuously on-going regional climate hindcast simulations for impact applications
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anders, Ivonne; Piringer, Martin; Kaufmann, Hildegard; Knauder, Werner; Resch, Gernot; Andre, Konrad
2017-04-01
Observational data for e.g. temperature, precipitation, radiation, or wind are often used as meteorological forcing for different impact models, like e.g. crop models, urban models, economic models and energy system models. To assess a climate signal, the time period covered by the observation is often too short, they have gaps in between, and are inhomogeneous over time, due to changes in the measurements itself or in the near surrounding. Thus output from global and regional climate models can close the gap and provide homogeneous and physically consistent time series of meteorological parameters. CORDEX evaluation runs performed for the IPCC-AR5 provide a good base for the regional scale. However, with respect to climate services, continuously on-going hindcast simulations are required for regularly updated applications. The Climate Research group at the national Austrian weather service, ZAMG, is focusing on high mountain regions and, especially on the Alps. The hindcast-simulation performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM is forced by ERAinterim and optimized for the Alpine Region. The simulation available for the period of 1979-2015 in a spatial resolution of about 10km is prolonged ongoing and fullfils the customer's needs with respect of output variables, levels, intervals and statistical measures. One of the main tasks is to capture strong precipitation events which often occur during summer when low pressure systems develop over the Golf of Genoa, moving to the Northeast. This leads to floods and landslide events in Austria, Czech Republic and Germany. Such events are not sufficiently represented in the CORDEX-evaluation runs. ZAMG use high quality gridded precipitation and temperature data for the Alpine Region (1-6km) to evaluate the model performance. Data is provided e.g. to hydrological modellers (high water, low water), but also to assess icing capability of infrastructure or the calculation the separation distances between livestock
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sangelantoni, Lorenzo; Russo, Aniello; Marincioni, Fausto; Appiotti, Federica
2013-04-01
This study investigates consequences and future impacts of climate change on the social and natural systems of the Marche Region (one of the 20 administrative divisions of Italy). This Region, is located in central part of the peninsula and borders the Adriatic Sea on the East and the Apennine mountains on the West. The Region extends for about 60 km E-W, and has a NW-SE coastline of about 170 km, covering a total area of 9366 km2. Multimodel projections over the Marche Regions, on daily, monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation parameters, have been extracted from the outputs of a set of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) over Europe run by several research institutes participating to the EU ENSEMBLE project. These climate simulations refer to the boundary conditions of the IPCC A1B emission scenario, and have a horizontal resolution of 25km × 25km covering a time period from 1951 to 2050. Results detail a significant increase of daily, monthly and seasonal mean temperatures, especially in summer, with anomaly values reaching +3°C after the year 2025, referring to the model CliNo 1981-2010. Mountain areas show higher values of temperature anomalies than coastal ones of approximately 0.5 °C. Concurrently, a widespread decrease of seasonal precipitation appears to affect all seasons, except for autumn. Rainfall decrease and temperature increase could reduce the Region's aquifer recharge and overall availability of hydro resources. These alterations could affect human health, agricultural productivity, forest fires, coastal erosion, algal blooms and water quality. Ongoing analysis of extreme climatological indices (e.g. frequency of maximum daily temperature exceeding comfort thresholds) are expected to quantify such impacts. A first analysis, linking climate change to the hydrologic cycle, studied through the computation of the hydro-climatic intensity index (as defined by Giorgi et al., 2012), suggests for the Marche Region an increase of the intensity of
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, Z.; Yim, Steve H. L.; Wang, C.; Lau, N. C.
2018-05-01
Literature has reported the remarkable aerosol impact on low-level cloud by direct radiative forcing (DRF). Impacts on middle-upper troposphere cloud are not yet fully understood, even though this knowledge is important for regions with a large spatial heterogeneity of emissions and aerosol concentration. We assess the aerosol DRF and its cloud response in June (with strong convection) in Pearl River Delta region for 2008-2012 at cloud-resolving scale using an air quality-climate coupled model. Aerosols suppress deep convection by increasing atmospheric stability leading to less evaporation from the ground. The relative humidity is reduced in middle-upper troposphere due to induced reduction in both evaporation from the ground and upward motion. The cloud reduction offsets 20% of the aerosol DRF. The weaker vertical mixing further increases surface aerosol concentration by up to 2.90 μg/m3. These findings indicate the aerosol DRF impact on deep convection and in turn regional air quality.
HIMALA: climate impacts on glaciers, snow, and hydrology in the Himalayan region
Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Ouyang, Hua; Habib, Shahid; Shrestha, Basanta; Shrestha, Mandira; Panday, Prajjwal; Tzortziou, Maria; Policelli, Frederick; Artan, Guleid; Giriraj, Amarnath; Bajracharya, Sagar R.; Racoviteanu, Adina
2010-01-01
Glaciers are the largest reservoir of freshwater on Earth, supporting one third of the world's population. The Himalaya possess one of the largest resources of snow and ice, which act as a freshwater reservoir for more than 1.3 billion people. This article describes a new project called HIMALA, which focuses on utilizing satellite-based products for better understanding of hydrological processes of the river basins of the region. With support from the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), together with its partners and member countries, has been working on the application of satellite-based rainfall estimates for flood prediction. The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) partners are working with ICIMOD to incorporate snowmelt and glacier melt into a widely used hydrological model. Thus, through improved modeling of the contribution of snow and ice meltwater to river flow in the region, the HIMALA project will improve the ability of ICIMOD and its partners to understand the impact of weather and climate on floods, droughts, and other water- and climate-induced natural hazards in the Himalayan region in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan.
HIMALA: Climate Impacts on Glaciers, Snow, and Hydrology in the Himalayan Region
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Ouyang, Hua; Habib, Shahid; Shrestha, Basanta; Shrestha, Mandira; Panday, Prajjwal; Tzortziou, Maria; Policelli, Frederick; Artan, Guleid; Giriraj, Amarnath;
2010-01-01
Glaciers are the largest reservoir of freshwater on Earth, supporting one third of the world s population. The Himalaya possess one of the largest resources of snow and ice, which act as a freshwater reservoir for more than 1.3 billion people. This article describes a new project called HIMALA, which focuses on utilizing satellite-based products for better understanding of hydrological processes of the river basins of the region. With support from the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), together with its partners and member countries, has been working on the application of satellite-based rainfall estimates for flood prediction. The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) partners are working with ICIMOD to incorporate snowmelt and glacier melt into a widely used hydrological model. Thus, through improved modeling of the contribution of snow and ice meltwater to river flow in the region, the HIMALA project will improve the ability of ICIMOD and its partners to understand the impact of weather and climate on floods, droughts, and other water- and climate-induced natural hazards in the Himalayan region in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan.
Jessica J. Hellmann; Knute J. Nadelhoffer; Louis R. Iverson; Lewis H. Ziska; Stephen N. Matthews; Philip Myers; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters
2010-01-01
This paper describes the potential impacts of warming temperatures and changing precipitation on plants, wildlife, invasive species, pests, and agricultural ecosystems across the multi-state region centered on Chicago, Illinois. We examine a geographic area that captures much of Lake Michigan, including a complex mosaic of urbanization and agriculture surrounding...
An Impact Analysis of Regional Industry-University Interactions: The Case of Industrial PhD Schools
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Gustavsson, Linda; Nuur, Cali; Söderlind, Johan
2016-01-01
The authors discuss Triple Helix collaborations in the context of regional competitiveness. Through an exploratory case study, they identify and analyse the impact of the establishment of industrial PhD schools for participating industry and universities. The study was conducted in Sweden in 2014 and focuses on three industry-university…
An Impact Analysis of Regional Industry--University Interactions: The Case of Industrial PhD Schools
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Gustavsson, Linda; Nuur, Cali; Söderlind, Johan
2016-01-01
The authors discuss Triple Helix collaborations in the context of regional competitiveness. Through an exploratory case study, they identify and analyse the impact of the establishment of industrial PhD schools for participating industry and universities. The study was conducted in Sweden in 2014 and focuses on three industry--university…
Mertens, K; Jacobs, L; Maes, J; Kabaseke, C; Maertens, M; Poesen, J; Kervyn, M; Vranken, L
2016-04-15
Landslides affect millions of people worldwide, but theoretical and empirical studies on the impact of landslides remain scarce, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study proposes and applies a method to estimate the direct impact of landslides on household income and to investigate the presence of specific risk sharing and mitigation strategies towards landslides in a tropical and rural environment. An original cross-sectional household survey is used in combination with geographical data to acquire detailed information on livelihoods and on hazards in the Rwenzori mountains, Uganda. Ordinary least square regressions and probit estimations with village fixed effects are used to estimate the impact of landslides and the presence of mitigation strategies. Geographical information at household level allows to disentangle the direct impact from the indirect effects of landslides. We show that the income of affected households is substantially reduced during the first years after a landslide has occurred. We find that members of recently affected households participate more in wage-employment or in self-employed activities, presumably to address income losses following a landslide. Yet, we see that these jobs do not provide sufficient revenue to compensate for the loss of income from agriculture. Given that landslides cause localized shocks, finding a significant direct impact in our study indicates that no adequate risk sharing mechanisms are in place in the Rwenzori sub-region. These insights are used to derive policy recommendations for alleviating the impact of landslides in the region. By quantifying the direct impact of landslides on household income in an agricultural context in Africa this study draws the attention towards a problem that has been broadly underestimated so far and provides a sound scientific base for disaster risk reduction in the region. Both the methodology and the findings of this research are applicable to other tropical regions with high
Regional differences in the mid-Victorian diet and their impact on health
Greaves, Peter
2018-01-01
Summary The aim of this study was to examine the impact of regional diets on the health of the poor in mid-Victorian Britain. Contemporary surveys of regional diets and living condition were reviewed. This information was compared with mortality data from Britain over the same period. Although there was an overall improvement in life expectancy during the latter part of the 19th century, there were large regional differences in lifestyle, diet and mortality rates. Dietary surveys showed that the poor labouring population in isolated rural areas of England, in the mainland and islands of Scotland and in the west of Ireland enjoyed the most nutritious diets. These regions also showed the lowest mortality rates in Britain. This was not simply the result of better sanitation and less mortality from food and waterborne infections but also fewer deaths from pulmonary tuberculosis, which is typically associated with better nutrition. These more isolated regions where a peasant-style culture provided abundant locally produced cheap foodstuffs such as potatoes, vegetables, whole grains, and milk and fish, were in the process of disappearing in the face of increasing urbanisation. This was to the detriment of many rural poor during the latter half of the century. Conversely, increasing urbanisation, with its improved transport links, brought greater availability and diversity of foods to many others. It was this that that led to an improved nutrition and life expectancy for the majority in urbanising Britain, despite the detrimental effects of increasing food refinement. PMID:29552346
Climate change impacts on crop yield in the Euro-Mediterranean region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Toreti, Andrea; Ceglar, Andrej; Dentener, Frank; Niemeyer, Stefan; Dosio, Alessandro; Fumagalli, Davide
2017-04-01
Agriculture is strongly influenced by climate variability, climate extremes and climate changes. Recent studies on past decades have identified and analysed the effects of climate variability and extremes on crop yields in the Euro-Mediterranean region. As these effects could be amplified in a changing climate context, it is essential to analyse available climate projections and investigate the possible impacts on European agriculture in terms of crop yield. In this study, five model runs from the Euro-CORDEX initiative under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) have been used. Climate model data have been bias corrected and then used to feed a mechanistic crop growth model. The crop model has been run under different settings to better sample the intrinsic uncertainties. Among the main results, it is worth to report a weak but significant and spatially homogeneous increase in potential wheat yield at mid-century (under a CO2 fertilisation effect scenario). While more complex changes seem to characterise potential maize yield, with large areas in the region showing a weak-to-moderate decrease.
Regional scale impact of tidal forcing on groundwater flow in unconfined coastal aquifers
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pauw, P. S.; Oude Essink, G. H. P.; Leijnse, A.; Vandenbohede, A.; Groen, J.; van der Zee, S. E. A. T. M.
2014-09-01
This paper considers the impact of tidal forcing on regional groundwater flow in an unconfined coastal aquifer. Numerical models are used to quantify this impact for a wide range of hydrogeological conditions. Both a shallow and a deep aquifer are investigated with regard to three dimensionless parameter groups that determine the groundwater flow to a large extent. Analytical expressions are presented that allow for a quick estimate of the regional scale effect of tidal forcing under the same conditions as used in the numerical models. Quantitatively, the results in this paper are complementary to previous studies by taking into account variable density groundwater flow, dispersive salt transport and a seepage face in the intertidal area. Qualitatively, the results are in line with previous investigations. The time-averaged hydraulic head at the high tide mark increases upon a decrease of each of the three considered dimensionless parameter groups: R (including the ratio of the hydraulic conductivity and the precipitation excess), α (the slope of the intertidal area) and AL (the ratio of the width of the fresh water lens and the tidal amplitude). The relative change of the location and the hydraulic head of the groundwater divide, which together characterize regional groundwater flow, increase as α and AL decrease, but decrease as R decreases. The difference between the analytical solutions and numerical results is small. Therefore, the presented analytical solutions can be used to estimate the bias that is introduced in a numerical model if tidal forcing is neglected. The results should be used with caution in case of significant wave forcing, as this was not considered.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xia, Geng
In the most recent decade, wind energy has experienced exponential growth worldwide and this rapid increase is expected to continue, particularly over farmlands in the United States. This poses an important question regarding whether the widespread deployment of wind turbines (WTs) will influence surface/near-surface microclimate and vegetation growth. In this dissertation, I investigate the potential wind farm (WF) impacts on regional climate and vegetation growth from both observational and modeling perspectives. High resolution satellite, radiosonde and field observations are used to determine the magnitude and variability of WF-induced changes on surface/near-surface temperatures while the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate these changes in real-world WFs at regional scales and to uncover the physical processes behind the simulated temperature changes. First, the primary physical mechanisms controlling the seasonal and diurnal variations of WF impacts on land surface temperature (LST) are investigated by analyzing both satellite data and field observations. It is found that the turbine-induced turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) relative to the background TKE determines the magnitude and variability of such impacts. In addition, atmospheric stability also matters in determining the sign and strength of the net downward heat transport as well as the magnitude of the background TKE. Second, the WRF's ability in simulating the observed WF impacts on LST is examined by conducting real-world WF experiments driven by realistic initial and boundary conditions. Overall, the WRF model can moderately reproduce the observed spatiotemporal variations of the background LST but has difficulties in reproducing such variations for the turbine-induced LST change signals at pixel levels. However, the model is still able to reproduce the coherent and consistent responses of the observed WF-induced LST changes at regional scales. Third, the spatiotemporal
The impact of newspaper advertising on a regional antenatal health campaign.
Berry, J M
1984-01-01
In 1981 the West Midlands Health services undertook a publicity campaign aimed at helping women to understand more about keeping healthy during pregnancy and encouraging them to seek early ante-natal care. A series of full page advertisements on ante-natal care were placed in local newspapers in the Region. Set out here are the findings of two studies of the impact of the publicity campaign. The first shows how far people's knowledge of what to do during pregnancy was altered by the publicity, and the second shows what people thought of the advertisements themselves and the further information sent to them on request.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Maneta, M. P.; Howitt, R.; Kimball, J. S.
2013-12-01
Agricultural activity can exacerbate or buffer the impact of climate variability, especially droughts, on the hydrologic and socioeconomic conditions of rural areas. Potential negative regional impacts of droughts include impoverishment of agricultural regions, deterioration or overuse of water resources, risk of monoculture, and regional dependence on external food markets. Policies that encourage adequate management practices in the face of adverse climatic events are critical to preserve rural livelihoods and to ensure a sustainable future for agriculture. Diagnosing and managing drought effects on agricultural production, on the social and natural environment, and on limited water resources, is highly complex and interdisciplinary. The challenges that decision-makers face to mitigate the impact of water shortage are social, agronomic, economic and environmental in nature and therefore must be approached from an integrated multidisciplinary point of view. Existing observation technologies, in conjunction with models and assimilation methods open the opportunity for novel interdisciplinary analysis tools to support policy and decision making. We present an integrated modeling and observation framework driven by satellite remote sensing and other ancillary information from regional monitoring networks to enable robust regional assessment and prediction of drought impacts on agricultural production, water resources, management decisions and socioeconomic policy. The core of this framework is a hydroeconomic model of agricultural production that assimilates remote sensing inputs to quantify the amount of land, water, fertilizer and labor farmers allocate for each crop they choose to grow on a seasonal basis in response to changing climatic conditions, including drought. A regional hydroclimatologic model provides biophysical constraints to an economic model of agricultural production based on a class of models referred to as positive mathematical programming (PMP
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2013-08-12
... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Department of Air Force Intent To Prepare an Environmental Impact Statement for the Gulf Regional Airspace Strategic Initiative (GRASI) Landscape Initiative AGENCY: Department of... Airspace Strategic Initiative (GRASI) Landscape Initiative (GLI) is a U.S Air Force-led partnership with...
The United States has established a series of standards for criteria and other air pollutants to safeguard air quality to protect human health and the environment. The Climate Impact on Regional Air Quality (CIRAQ) project, a collaborative research effort involving multiple Fede...
IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON UV EXPOSURE IN COASTAL SHELF REGIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
Global change has a variety of impact on UV exposure in coastal shelf regions of the southeastern United States. Changes in solar UV reaching the water surface have been caused by human alterations of atmospheric composition such as depletion of the ozone layer.
Outreach impact study: the case of the Greater Midwest Region*
Huber, Jeffrey T; Kean, Emily B; Fitzgerald, Philip D; Altman, Trina A; Young, Zach G; Dupin, Katherine M; Leskovec, Jacqueline; Holst, Ruth
2011-01-01
Objectives: The purpose of the study was to assess the impact that funding from the National Network of Libraries of Medicine (NN/LM), Greater Midwest Region (GMR), has on member institutions' ability to conduct outreach on behalf of NN/LM. Methods: The study employed both content analysis and survey methodologies. The final reports from select GMR-funded outreach projects (n = 20) were analyzed based on a set of evaluation criteria. Project principal investigators (n = 13) were then surveyed using the same evaluation criteria. Results: Results indicated that outreach projects supported by GMR funding improved access to biomedical information for professionals and the general public. Barriers to conducting outreach projects included time constraints or commitments, staffing, scheduling and absenteeism, inadequate space, and issues associated with technology (e.g., hardware and software, Internet connectivity and firewall issues, and creation and use of new technologies). Conclusions: The majority of project principal investigators indicated that their attempts to conduct outreach were successful. Moreover, most noted that outreach had a positive impact on professionals as well as the general public. In general, it seems that negative outcomes, as with most barriers to conducting outreach, can be mitigated by more thorough planning. PMID:22022223
DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2015-03-01
This report presents a research examining the feasibility of creating an integrated structural health : monitoring and impact/collision detection system for bridges in remote cold regions, where in-person : inspection becomes formidable. The research...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Brantley, S.; Pollak, J.
2016-12-01
The Shale Network's extensive database of water quality observations in the Marcellus Shale region enables educational experiences about the potential impacts of resource extraction and energy production with real data. Through tools that are open source and free to use, interested parties can access and analyze the very same data that the Shale Network team has used in peer-reviewed publications about the potential impacts of hydraulic fracturing on water. The development of the Shale Network database has been made possible through efforts led by an academic team and involving numerous individuals from government agencies, citizen science organizations, and private industry. With these tools and data, the Shale Network team has engaged high school students, university undergraduate and graduate students, as well as citizens so that all can discover how energy production impacts the Marcellus Shale region, which includes Pennsylvania and other nearby states. This presentation will describe these data tools, how the Shale Network has used them in educational settings, and the resources available to learn more.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Setiawan, M. I.; Hasyim, C.; Kurniasih, N.; Abdullah, D.; Napitupulu, D.; Rahim, R.; Sukoco, A.; Dhaniarti, I.; Suyono, J.; Sudapet, IN; Nasihien, RD; Wulandari, DAR; Reswanda; Mudjanarko, SW; Sugeng; Wajdi, MBN
2018-04-01
The decline of development delived from natural resources in several regions in Indonesia requires local governments to make a breakthrough in increasing revenues beyond natural resources, including through increased revenue in the field of information technology. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of the regional government development (APBD) on information and communication development in Indonesia. By using correlational research, it is known that all of APBD sub variables have a high correlation in increasing Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of Information and Communication in Indonesia, only sub-variable of surplus/deficit development, unexpected development sub-variable, subvariable of development aid to province/regency/city and village government, and sub-variable of development special allocations that have not a significant correlation to increase of GRDP of Information and Communication in Indonesia. There is 86,7% of APBD variable influence the increase of GRDP of Information and Communication, while the increase of 15,3% of Information and Communication GRDP influenced by other factors aside from APBD. It shows the strong impact of APBD on increasing GRDP of Information and Communication
Impacts of Marcellus Shale Natural Gas Production on Regional Air Quality
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Swarthout, R.; Russo, R. S.; Zhou, Y.; Mitchell, B.; Miller, B.; Lipsky, E. M.; Sive, B. C.
2012-12-01
Natural gas is a clean burning alternative to other fossil fuels, producing lower carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions during combustion. Gas deposits located within shale rock or tight sand formations are difficult to access using conventional drilling techniques. However, horizontal drilling coupled with hydraulic fracturing is now widely used to enhance natural gas extraction. Potential environmental impacts of these practices are currently being assessed because of the rapid expansion of natural gas production in the U.S. Natural gas production has contributed to the deterioration of air quality in several regions, such as in Wyoming and Utah, that were near or downwind of natural gas basins. We conducted a field campaign in southwestern Pennsylvania on 16-18 June 2012 to investigate the impact of gas production operations in the Marcellus Shale on regional air quality. A total of 235 whole air samples were collected in 2-liter electropolished stainless- steel canisters throughout southwestern Pennsylvania in a regular grid pattern that covered an area of approximately 8500 square km. Day and night samples were collected at each grid point and additional samples were collected near active wells, flaring wells, fluid retention reservoirs, transmission pipelines, and a processing plant to assess the influence of different stages of the gas production operation on emissions. The samples were analyzed at Appalachian State University for methane (CH4), CO2, C2-C10 nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs), C1-C2 halocarbons, C1-C5 alkyl nitrates and selected reduced sulfur compounds. In-situ measurements of ozone (O3), CH4, CO2, nitric oxide (NO), total reactive nitrogen (NOy), formaldehyde (HCHO), and a range of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were carried out at an upwind site and a site near active gas wells using a mobile lab. Emissions associated with gas production were observed throughout the study region. Elevated mixing ratios of CH4 and CO2 were observed in the
Impact of End-of-Life manoeuvres on the collision risk in protected regions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Frey, Stefan; Lemmens, Stijn; Bastida Virgili, Benjamin; Flohrer, Tim; Gass, Volker
2017-09-01
The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines, issued in 2002 and revised in 2007, address the post mission disposal of objects in orbit. After their mission, objects crossing the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) should have a remaining lifetime in orbit not exceeding 25 years. Objects near the Geostationary Orbit (GEO) region should be placed in an orbit that remains outside of the GEO protected region. In this paper, the impact of satellites and rocket bodies performing End-of-Life (EOL) orbital manoeuvres on the collision risk in the LEO and GEO protected regions is investigated. The cases of full or partial compliance with the IADC post mission disposal guideline are studied. ESA's Meteoroid and Space Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference (MASTER) model is used to compare the space debris flux rate of the object during the remaining lifetime estimated for the pre-EOL-manoeuvre and for the post-EOL-manoeuvre orbit. The study shows that, on average, the probability of collision can be significantly decreased by performing an EOL-manoeuver.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Leung, F.
2016-12-01
Tropospheric ozone (O3) is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. It is causing significant crop production losses. Currently, O3 concentrations are projected to increase globally, which could have a significant impact on food security. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator modified to include crops (JULES-crop) is used here to quantify the impacts of tropospheric O3 on crop production at the regional scale until 2100. We evaluate JULES-crop against the Soybean Free-Air-Concentration-Enrichment (SoyFACE) experiment in Illinois, USA. Experimental data from SoyFACE and various literature sources is used to calibrate the parameters for soybean and ozone damage parameters in soybean in JULES-crop. The calibrated model is then applied for a transient factorial set of JULES-crop simulations over 1960-2005. Simulated yield changes are attributed to individual environmental drivers, CO2, O3 and climate change, across regions and for different crops. A mixed scenario of RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 climatology and ozone are simulated to explore the implication of policy. The overall findings are that regions with high ozone concentration such as China and India suffer the most from ozone damage, soybean is more sensitive to O3 than other crops. JULES-crop predicts CO2 fertilisation would increase the productivity of vegetation. This effect, however, is masked by the negative impacts of tropospheric O3. Using data from FAO and JULES-crop estimated that ozone damage cost around 55.4 Billion USD per year on soybean. Irrigation improves the simulation of rice only, and it increases the relative ozone damage because drought can reduce the ozone from entering the plant stomata. RCP 8.5 scenario results in a high yield for all crops mainly due to the CO2 fertilisation effect. Mixed climate scenarios simulations suggest that RCP 8.5 CO2 concentration and RCP 2.6 O3 concentration result in the highest yield. Further works such as more crop FACE-O3 experiments and more Crop
Regional consolidation of orthopedic surgery: impacts on hip fracture surgery access and outcomes.
Kreindler, Sara A; Siragusa, Lanette; Bohm, Eric; Rudnick, Wendy; Metge, Colleen J
2017-09-01
Timely access to orthopedic trauma surgery is essential for optimal outcomes. Regionalization of some types of surgery has shown positive effects on access, timeliness and outcomes. We investigated how the consolidation of orthopedic surgery in 1 Canadian health region affected patients requiring hip fracture surgery. We retrieved administrative data on all regional emergency department visits for lower-extremity injury and all linked inpatient stays from January 2010 through March 2013, identifying 1885 hip-fracture surgeries. Statistical process control and interrupted time series analysis controlling for demographics and comorbidities were used to assess impacts on access (receipt of surgery within 48-h benchmark) and surgical outcomes (complications, in-hospital/30-d mortality, length of stay). There was a significant increase in the proportion of patients receiving surgery within the benchmark. Complication rates did not change, but there appeared to be some decrease in mortality (significant at 6 mo). Length of stay increased at a hospital that experienced a major increase in patient volume, perhaps reflecting challenges associated with patient flow. Regionalization appeared to improve the timeliness of surgery and may have reduced mortality. The specific features of the present consolidation (including pre-existing interhospital performance variation and the introduction of daytime slates at the referral hospital) should be considered when interpreting the findings.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles;
2015-01-01
The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chou, S.-H.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Jedloved, G. J.
2010-01-01
In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles in clear and cloudy regions with accuracy which approaches that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe an approach to assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model using WRF-Var. Quality indicators are used to select only the highest quality temperature and moisture profiles for assimilation in clear and partly cloudy regions, and uncontaminated portions of retrievals above clouds in overcast regions. Separate error characteristics for land and water profiles are also used in the assimilation process. Assimilation results indicate that AIRS profiles produce an analysis closer to in situ observations than the background field. Forecasts from a 37-day case study period in the winter of 2007 show that AIRS profile data can lead to improvements in 6-h cumulative precipitation forecasts resulting from improved thermodynamic fields. Additionally, in a convective heavy rainfall event from February 2007, assimilation of AIRS profiles produces a more unstable boundary layer resulting in enhanced updrafts in the model. These updrafts produce a squall line and precipitation totals that more closely reflect ground-based observations than a no AIRS control forecast. The location of available high-quality AIRS profiles ahead of approaching storm systems is found to be of paramount importance to the amount of impact the observations will have on the resulting forecasts.
Prein, Andreas F; Gobiet, Andreas
2017-01-01
Gridded precipitation data sets are frequently used to evaluate climate models or to remove model output biases. Although precipitation data are error prone due to the high spatio-temporal variability of precipitation and due to considerable measurement errors, relatively few attempts have been made to account for observational uncertainty in model evaluation or in bias correction studies. In this study, we compare three types of European daily data sets featuring two Pan-European data sets and a set that combines eight very high-resolution station-based regional data sets. Furthermore, we investigate seven widely used, larger scale global data sets. Our results demonstrate that the differences between these data sets have the same magnitude as precipitation errors found in regional climate models. Therefore, including observational uncertainties is essential for climate studies, climate model evaluation, and statistical post-processing. Following our results, we suggest the following guidelines for regional precipitation assessments. (1) Include multiple observational data sets from different sources (e.g. station, satellite, reanalysis based) to estimate observational uncertainties. (2) Use data sets with high station densities to minimize the effect of precipitation undersampling (may induce about 60% error in data sparse regions). The information content of a gridded data set is mainly related to its underlying station density and not to its grid spacing. (3) Consider undercatch errors of up to 80% in high latitudes and mountainous regions. (4) Analyses of small-scale features and extremes are especially uncertain in gridded data sets. For higher confidence, use climate-mean and larger scale statistics. In conclusion, neglecting observational uncertainties potentially misguides climate model development and can severely affect the results of climate change impact assessments.
Impacts of uncertainties in European gridded precipitation observations on regional climate analysis
Gobiet, Andreas
2016-01-01
ABSTRACT Gridded precipitation data sets are frequently used to evaluate climate models or to remove model output biases. Although precipitation data are error prone due to the high spatio‐temporal variability of precipitation and due to considerable measurement errors, relatively few attempts have been made to account for observational uncertainty in model evaluation or in bias correction studies. In this study, we compare three types of European daily data sets featuring two Pan‐European data sets and a set that combines eight very high‐resolution station‐based regional data sets. Furthermore, we investigate seven widely used, larger scale global data sets. Our results demonstrate that the differences between these data sets have the same magnitude as precipitation errors found in regional climate models. Therefore, including observational uncertainties is essential for climate studies, climate model evaluation, and statistical post‐processing. Following our results, we suggest the following guidelines for regional precipitation assessments. (1) Include multiple observational data sets from different sources (e.g. station, satellite, reanalysis based) to estimate observational uncertainties. (2) Use data sets with high station densities to minimize the effect of precipitation undersampling (may induce about 60% error in data sparse regions). The information content of a gridded data set is mainly related to its underlying station density and not to its grid spacing. (3) Consider undercatch errors of up to 80% in high latitudes and mountainous regions. (4) Analyses of small‐scale features and extremes are especially uncertain in gridded data sets. For higher confidence, use climate‐mean and larger scale statistics. In conclusion, neglecting observational uncertainties potentially misguides climate model development and can severely affect the results of climate change impact assessments. PMID:28111497
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Global mean temperature may increase up to 6°C by the end of this century and together with precipitation change may steepen regional aridity gradients, impacting the hydrology, productivity, diversity, and ecosystem goods and services from freshwater wetlands, where the water balance is tightly cou...
Darius M. Adams; Gregory S. Latta
2005-01-01
An intertemporal spatial equilibrium model of the eastern Oregon softwood log market was employed to estimate the market and economic welfare impacts of restoration thinning programs established on national forests in the region. Programs treated only lands with sawtimber thinning volume and varied by the extent of public subsidies for costs, the types of costs that...
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Garvin, J. B.; Grosfils, E. B.; Sakimoto, S. E. H.
2000-01-01
This study combines MOLA altimetry with photographic imagery to begin assessing the extent to which sedimentary and volcanic processes have affected impact crater morphology in the Arrhenius region of Mars.
Supporting work practices through telehealth: impact on nurses in peripheral regions.
Gagnon, Marie-Pierre; Paré, Guy; Pollender, Hugo; Duplantie, Julie; Côté, José; Fortin, Jean-Paul; Labadie, Rita; Duplàa, Emmanuel; Thifault, Marie-Claude; Courcy, François; McGinn, Carrie Anna; Ly, Birama Apho; Trépanier, Amélie; Malo, François-Bernard
2011-02-04
In Canada, workforce shortages in the health care sector constrain the ability of the health care system to meet the needs of its population and of its health care professionals. This issue is of particular importance in peripheral regions of Quebec, where significant inequalities in workforce distribution between regions has lead to acute nursing shortages and increased workloads. Information and communication technologies (ICTs) are innovative solutions that can be used to develop strategies to optimise the use of available resources and to design new nursing work practices. However, current knowledge is still limited about the real impact of ICTs on nursing recruitment and retention. Our aim is to better understand how work practice reorganization, supported by ICTs, and particularly by telehealth, may influence professional, educational, and organizational factors relating to Quebec nurses, notably those working in peripheral regions. First, we will conduct a descriptive study on the issue of nursing recruitment. Stratified sampling will be used to select approximately twenty innovative projects relating to the reorganization of work practices based upon ICTs. Semi-structured interviews with key informants will determine professional, educational, and organizational recruitment factors. The results will be used to create a questionnaire which, using a convenience sampling method, will be mailed to 600 third year students and recent graduates of two Quebec university nursing faculties. Descriptive, correlation, and hierarchical regression analyses will be performed to identify factors influencing nursing graduates' intentions to practice in peripheral regions. Secondly, we will conduct five case studies pertaining to the issue of nursing retention. Five ICT projects in semi-urban, rural, and isolated regions have been identified. Qualitative data will be collected through field observation and approximately fifty semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pohle, Ina; Koch, Hagen; Gädeke, Anne; Grünewald, Uwe; Kaltofen, Michael; Redetzky, Michael
2014-05-01
In the catchments of the rivers Schwarze Elster, Spree and Lusatian Neisse, hydrologic and socioeconomic systems are coupled via a complex water management system in which water users, reservoirs and water transfers are included. Lignite mining and electricity production are major water users in the region: To allow for open pit lignite mining, ground water is depleted and released into the river system while cooling water is used in the thermal power plants. In order to assess potential climate change impacts on water availability in the catchments as well as on the water demand of the thermal power plants, a climate change impact assessment was performed using the hydrological model SWIM and the long term water management model WBalMo. The potential impacts of climate change were considered by using three regional climate change scenarios of the statistical regional climate model STAR assuming a further temperature increase of 0, 2 or 3 K by the year 2050 in the region respectively. Furthermore, scenarios assuming decreasing mining activities in terms of a decreasing groundwater depression cone, lower mining water discharges, and reduced cooling water demand of the thermal power plants are considered. In the standard version of the WBalMo model cooling water demand is considered as static with regard to climate variables. However, changes in the future cooling water demand over time according to the plans of the local mining and power plant operator are considered. In order to account for climate change impacts on the cooling water demand of the thermal power plants, a dynamical approach for calculating water demand was implemented in WBalMo. As this approach is based on air temperature and air humidity, the projected air temperature and air humidity of the climate scenarios at the locations of the power plants are included in the calculation. Due to increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation declining natural and managed discharges, and hence a lower
U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Alaska Region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McGuire, D.
2009-12-01
The assessment of the Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States includes analyses of the potential climate change impacts in Alaska. The resulting findings are discussed in this presentation, with the effects on water resources discussed separately. Major findings include: Summers are getting hotter and drier, with increasing evaporation outpacing increased precipitation. Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. These impacts are different from region to region and will grow under projected climate change. Wildfires and insect problems are increasing. Climate plays a key role in determining the extent and severity of insect outbreaks and wildfire. The area burned in North America’s northern forest that spans Alaska and Canada tripled from the 1960s to the 1990s. During the 1990s, south-central Alaska experienced the largest outbreak of spruce bark beetles in the world because of warmer weather in all seasons of the year. Under changing climate conditions, the average area burned per year in Alaska is projected to double by the middle of this century10. By the end of this century, area burned by fire is projected to triple under a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario and to quadruple under a higher emissions scenario. Close-bodied lakes are declining in area. A continued decline in the area of surface water would present challenges for the management of natural resources and ecosystems on National Wildlife Refuges in Alaska. These refuges, which cover over 77 million acres (21 percent of Alaska) and comprise 81 percent of the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System, provide a breeding habitat for millions of waterfowl and shorebirds that winter in the lower 48 states. Permafrost thawing will damage public and private infrastructure. Land subsidence (sinking) associated with the thawing of permafrost presents substantial challenges to engineers attempting to preserve infrastructure in
[Impact of drinking water calcium and magnesium levels on morbidity in the Omsk Region].
Erofeev, Iu V; Neskin, T A; Turchaninov, D V
2006-01-01
Drinking water calcium and magnesium levels were examined for impact on morbidity in a model rural area of a West Siberian region. It was ascertained that there were negative correlations between the water levels of the above elements and the incidence of respiratory, gastrointestinal, and locomotor diseases and positive correlations between the concentrations of calcium and magnesium and the incidence of nervous, urogenital, and eye diseases. It is concluded that by adjusting the findings, the medical care availability factor should be taken into account in the investigations using the health indices calculated on the data from official medical accounts. This investigation has shown the estimation of the drinking water levels of calcium and magnesium as a significant hygienic problem for a model region.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ceola, Serena; Pugliese, Alessio; Ventura, Matteo; Galeati, Giorgio; Montanari, Alberto; Castellarin, Attilio
2018-06-01
Anthropogenic activities along streams and rivers may be of major concern for fluvial ecosystems, e.g. abstraction and impoundment of surface water resources may profoundly alter natural streamflow regimes. An established approach aimed at preserving the behavior and distribution of fluvial species relies on the definition of ecological flows (e-flows) downstream of dams and diversion structures. E-flow prescriptions are usually set by basin authorities at regional scale, often without a proper assessment of their impact and effectiveness. On the contrary, we argue that e-flows should be identified on the basis of (i) regional and (ii) quantitative assessments. We focus on central Italy and evaluate the effects on habitat suitability of two near-threatened fish species (i.e. Barbel and Chub) and an existing hydro-power network when shifting from the current time-invariant e-flow policy to a tighter and seasonally-varying soon-to-be-enforced one. Our example clearly shows that: (a) quantitative regional scale assessments are viable even when streamflow observations are entirely missing at study sites; (b) aprioristic e-flows policies may impose releases that exceed natural streamflows for significantly long time intervals (weeks, or months); (c) unduly tightening e-flow policies may heavily impact regional hydro-power productivity (15% and 42% losses on annual and seasonal basis, respectively), yet resulting in either marginal or negligible improvements of fluvial ecosystem.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Andreeva, Nataliya; Eftimova, Petya; Valchev, Nikolay; Prodanov, Bogdan
2017-04-01
The study presents evaluation and comparative analysis of storm induced flooding impacts on different coastal receptors at a scale of Varna region using INtegrated DisRuption Assessment (INDRA) model. The model was developed within the FP7 RISC-KIT project, as a part of Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) consisting of two phases. CRAF Phase 1 is a screening process that evaluates coastal risk at a regional scale by means of coastal indices approach, which helps to identify potentially vulnerable coastal sectors: hot spots (HS). CRAF Phase 2 has the objective to assess and rank identified hotspots by detailed risk analysis done by jointly performing a hazard assessment and an impact evaluation on different categories (population, businesses, ecosystems, transport and utilities) using INDRA model at a regional level. Basically, the model assess the shock of events by estimating the impact on directly exposed to flooding hazard receptors of different vulnerability, as well as the potential ripple effects during an event in order to assess the "indirect" impacts, which occur outside the hazard area and/or continue after the event for all considered categories. The potential impacts are expressed in terms of uniform "Impact Indicators", which independently score the indirect impacts of these categories assessing disruption and recovery of the receptors. The ultimate hotspot ranking is obtained through the use of a Multi Criteria analysis (MCA) incorporated in the model, considering preferences of stakeholders. The case study area - Varna regional coast - is located on the western Black Sea, Bulgaria. The coastline, with a length of about 70 km, stretches from cape Ekrene to cape St. Atanas and includes Varna Bay. After application of CRAF Phase 1 three hotspots were selected for further analysis: Kabakum beach (HS1), Varna Central beach plus Port wall (HS2) and Artificial Island (HS3). For first two hotspots beaches and associated infrastructure are the assets
Climate change impacts on risks of groundwater pollution by herbicides: a regional scale assessment
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Steffens, Karin; Moeys, Julien; Lindström, Bodil; Kreuger, Jenny; Lewan, Elisabet; Jarvis, Nick
2014-05-01
Groundwater contributes nearly half of the Swedish drinking water supply, which therefore needs to be protected both under present and future climate conditions. Pesticides are sometimes found in Swedish groundwater in concentrations exceeding the EU-drinking water limit and thus constitute a threat. The aim of this study was to assess the present and future risks of groundwater pollution at the regional scale by currently approved herbicides. We identified representative combinations of major crop types and their specific herbicide usage (product, dose and application timing) based on long-term monitoring data from two agricultural catchments in the South-West of Sweden. All these combinations were simulated with the regional version of the pesticide fate model MACRO (called MACRO-SE) for the periods 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 for a major crop production region in South West Sweden. To represent the uncertainty in future climate data, we applied a five-member ensemble based on different climate model projections downscaled with the RCA3-model (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute). In addition to the direct impacts of changes in the climate, the risks of herbicide leaching in the future will also be affected by likely changes in weed pressure and land use and management practices (e.g. changes in crop rotations and application timings). To assess the relative importance of such factors we performed a preliminary sensitivity analysis which provided us with a hierarchical structure for constructing future herbicide use scenarios for the regional scale model runs. The regional scale analysis gave average concentrations of herbicides leaching to groundwater for a large number of combinations of soils, crops and compounds. The results showed that future scenarios for herbicide use (more autumn-sown crops, more frequent multiple applications on one crop, and a shift from grassland to arable crops such as maize) imply significantly greater risks of herbicide
Assessing the Impact of and Needs for Navy Language, Regional Expertise, and Culture Training
2012-10-01
Assessing the Impact of and Needs for Navy Language, Regional Expertise, and Culture Training Neil B. Carey • Edward J. Schmitz • Zachary T...Francisco, CA, gives medication to a child during a medical & dental community assistance project (MEDCAP/DENCAP). Petty Officer Barker is stationed aboard...concerns about this questionnaire, please refer them to Neil Carey , Ph.D., at 703-824-2356 or careyn@cna.org. 77 78 Appendix D Appendix D
Impact of dynamical regionalization on precipitation biases and teleconnections over West Africa
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gómara, Iñigo; Mohino, Elsa; Losada, Teresa; Domínguez, Marta; Suárez-Moreno, Roberto; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén
2018-06-01
West African societies are highly dependent on the West African Monsoon (WAM). Thus, a correct representation of the WAM in climate models is of paramount importance. In this article, the ability of 8 CMIP5 historical General Circulation Models (GCMs) and 4 CORDEX-Africa Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to characterize the WAM dynamics and variability is assessed for the period July-August-September 1979-2004. Simulations are compared with observations. Uncertainties in RCM performance and lateral boundary conditions are assessed individually. Results show that both GCMs and RCMs have trouble to simulate the northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in boreal summer. The greatest bias improvements are obtained after regionalization of the most inaccurate GCM simulations. To assess WAM variability, a Maximum Covariance Analysis is performed between Sea Surface Temperature and precipitation anomalies in observations, GCM and RCM simulations. The assessed variability patterns are: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the eastern Mediterranean (MED); and the Atlantic Equatorial Mode (EM). Evidence is given that regionalization of the ENSO-WAM teleconnection does not provide any added value. Unlike GCMs, RCMs are unable to precisely represent the ENSO impact on air subsidence over West Africa. Contrastingly, the simulation of the MED-WAM teleconnection is improved after regionalization. Humidity advection and convergence over the Sahel area are better simulated by RCMs. Finally, no robust conclusions can be determined for the EM-WAM teleconnection, which cannot be isolated for the 1979-2004 period. The novel results in this article will help to select the most appropriate RCM simulations to study WAM teleconnections.
Regional consolidation of orthopedic surgery: impacts on hip fracture surgery access and outcomes
Kreindler, Sara A.; Siragusa, Lanette; Bohm, Eric; Rudnick, Wendy; Metge, Colleen J.
2017-01-01
Background Timely access to orthopedic trauma surgery is essential for optimal outcomes. Regionalization of some types of surgery has shown positive effects on access, timeliness and outcomes. We investigated how the consolidation of orthopedic surgery in 1 Canadian health region affected patients requiring hip fracture surgery. Methods We retrieved administrative data on all regional emergency department visits for lower-extremity injury and all linked inpatient stays from January 2010 through March 2013, identifying 1885 hip-fracture surgeries. Statistical process control and interrupted time series analysis controlling for demographics and comorbidities were used to assess impacts on access (receipt of surgery within 48-h benchmark) and surgical outcomes (complications, in-hospital/30-d mortality, length of stay). Results There was a significant increase in the proportion of patients receiving surgery within the benchmark. Complication rates did not change, but there appeared to be some decrease in mortality (significant at 6 mo). Length of stay increased at a hospital that experienced a major increase in patient volume, perhaps reflecting challenges associated with patient flow. Conclusion Regionalization appeared to improve the timeliness of surgery and may have reduced mortality. The specific features of the present consolidation (including pre-existing interhospital performance variation and the introduction of daytime slates at the referral hospital) should be considered when interpreting the findings. PMID:28930037
Baum, Gunilla; Januar, Hedi I; Ferse, Sebastian C A; Kunzmann, Andreas
2015-01-01
Worldwide, coral reefs are challenged by multiple stressors due to growing urbanization, industrialization and coastal development. Coral reefs along the Thousand Islands off Jakarta, one of the largest megacities worldwide, have degraded dramatically over recent decades. The shift and decline in coral cover and composition has been extensively studied with a focus on large-scale gradients (i.e. regional drivers), however special focus on local drivers in shaping spatial community composition is still lacking. Here, the spatial impact of anthropogenic stressors on local and regional scales on coral reefs north of Jakarta was investigated. Results indicate that the direct impact of Jakarta is mainly restricted to inshore reefs, separating reefs in Jakarta Bay from reefs along the Thousand Islands further north. A spatial patchwork of differentially degraded reefs is present along the islands as a result of localized anthropogenic effects rather than regional gradients. Pollution is the main anthropogenic stressor, with over 80% of variation in benthic community composition driven by sedimentation rate, NO2, PO4 and Chlorophyll a. Thus, the spatial structure of reefs is directly related to intense anthropogenic pressure from local as well as regional sources. Therefore, improved spatial management that accounts for both local and regional stressors is needed for effective marine conservation.
Baum, Gunilla; Januar, Hedi I.; Ferse, Sebastian C. A.; Kunzmann, Andreas
2015-01-01
Worldwide, coral reefs are challenged by multiple stressors due to growing urbanization, industrialization and coastal development. Coral reefs along the Thousand Islands off Jakarta, one of the largest megacities worldwide, have degraded dramatically over recent decades. The shift and decline in coral cover and composition has been extensively studied with a focus on large-scale gradients (i.e. regional drivers), however special focus on local drivers in shaping spatial community composition is still lacking. Here, the spatial impact of anthropogenic stressors on local and regional scales on coral reefs north of Jakarta was investigated. Results indicate that the direct impact of Jakarta is mainly restricted to inshore reefs, separating reefs in Jakarta Bay from reefs along the Thousand Islands further north. A spatial patchwork of differentially degraded reefs is present along the islands as a result of localized anthropogenic effects rather than regional gradients. Pollution is the main anthropogenic stressor, with over 80% of variation in benthic community composition driven by sedimentation rate, NO2, PO4 and Chlorophyll a. Thus, the spatial structure of reefs is directly related to intense anthropogenic pressure from local as well as regional sources. Therefore, improved spatial management that accounts for both local and regional stressors is needed for effective marine conservation. PMID:26378910
Impact of Desiccation of Aral Sea on the Regional Climate of Central Asia Using WRF Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sharma, Ashish; Huang, Huei-Ping; Zavialov, Peter; Khan, Valentina
2018-01-01
This study explores the impacts of the desiccation of the Aral Sea and large-scale climate change on the regional climate of Central Asia in the post-1960 era. A series of climate downscaling experiments for the 1960's and 2000's decades were performed using the Weather Research and Forecast model at 12-km horizontal resolution. To quantify the impacts of the changing surface boundary condition, a set of simulations with an identical lateral boundary condition but different extents of the Aral Sea were performed. It was found that the desiccation of the Aral Sea leads to more snow (and less rain) as desiccated winter surface is relatively much colder than water surface. In summer, desiccation led to substantial warming over the Aral Sea. These impacts were largely confined to within the area covered by the former Aral Sea and its immediate vicinity, although desiccation of the Sea also led to minor cooling over the greater Central Asia in winter. A contrasting set of simulations with an identical surface boundary condition but different lateral boundary conditions produced more identifiable changes in regional climate over the greater Central Asia which was characterized by a warming trend in both winter and summer. Simulations also showed that while the desiccation of the Aral Sea has significant impacts on the local climate over the Sea, the climate over the greater Central Asia on inter-decadal time scale was more strongly influenced by the continental or global-scale climate change on that time scale.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Maharjan, Rijan; Mukhopadhyay, Shomeek; Allen, Benjamin; Storz, Tobias; Brown, Eric
2018-05-01
We experimentally characterize the impact response of concentrated suspensions consisting of cornstarch and water. We observe that the suspensions support a large normal stress—on the order of MPa—with a delay after the impactor hits the suspension surface. We show that neither the delay nor the magnitude of the stress can yet be explained by either standard rheological models of shear thickening in terms of steady-state viscosities, or impact models based on added mass or other inertial effects. The stress increase occurs when a dynamically jammed region of the suspension in front of the impactor propagates to the opposite boundary of the container, which can support large stresses when it spans between solid boundaries. We present a constitutive relation for impact rheology to relate the force on the impactor to its displacement. This can be described in terms of an effective modulus but only after the delay required for the dynamically jammed region to span between solid boundaries. Both the modulus and the delay are reported as a function of impact velocity, fluid height, and weight fraction. We report in a companion paper the structure of the dynamically jammed region when it spans between the impactor and the opposite boundary [Allen et al., Phys. Rev. E 97, 052603 (2018), 10.1103/PhysRevE.97.052603]. In a direct follow-up paper, we show that this constitutive model can be used to quantitatively predict, for example, the trajectory and penetration depth of the foot of a person walking or running on cornstarch and water [Mukhopadhyay et al., Phys. Rev. E 97, 052604 (2018), 10.1103/PhysRevE.97.052604].
Impact of anomalous forest fire on aerosol radiative forcing and snow cover over Himalayan region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bali, Kunal; Mishra, Amit Kumar; Singh, Sachchidanand
2017-02-01
Forest fires are very common in tropical region during February-May months and are known to have significant impact on ecosystem dynamics. Moreover, aerosols emitted from these burning activities significantly modulate the Earth's radiation budget. In present study, we investigated the anomalous forest fire events and their impact on atmospheric radiation budget and glaciated snow cover over the Himalayan region. We used multiple dataset derived from satellites [Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO)] and reanalysis models [Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS), Second Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Application (MERRA-2) and ERA-interim] to evaluate the effect of biomass burning aerosols on radiation budget. April 2016 is associated with anomalous fire activities over lower Himalayan region in the last fourteen years (2003-2016). The model estimated organic carbon (OC) and black carbon (BC) emission reaches up to ∼3 × 104 and ∼2 × 103 μg/m2/day, respectively during the biomass burning period of April 2016. The meteorological data analysis accompanied with CALIOP aerosol vertical profile shows that these carbonaceous aerosols could reach up to ∼5-7 km altitude and could be transported towards glaciated region of upper Himalayas. The large amount of BC/OC from biomass burning significantly modulates the atmospheric radiation budget. The estimated columnar heating rate shows that these carbonaceous aerosols could heat up the atmosphere by ∼0.04-0.06 K/day in April-2016 with respect to non-burning period (2015). The glaciated snow cover fractions are found to be decreasing by ∼5-20% in 2016 as compared to long term mean (2003-2016). The combined analyses of various climatic factors, fires and associated BC emissions show that the observed snow cover decrease could be results of increased surface/atmospheric temperature due to combined effect of
Progress and prospects of climate change impacts on hydrology in the arid region of northwest China.
Chen, Yaning; Li, Zhi; Fan, Yuting; Wang, Huaijun; Deng, Haijun
2015-05-01
The arid region of Northwest China, located in the central Asia, responds sensitively to global climate change. Based on the newest research results, this paper analyzes the impacts of climate change on hydrology and the water cycle in the arid region of Northwest China. The analysis results show that: (1) In the northwest arid region, temperature and precipitation experienced "sharply" increasing in the past 50 years. The precipitation trend changed in 1987, and since then has been in a state of high volatility, during the 21st century, the increasing rate of precipitation was diminished. Temperature experienced a "sharply" increase in 1997; however, this sharp increasing trend has turned to an apparent hiatus since the 21st century. The dramatic rise in winter temperatures in the northwest arid region is an important reason for the rise in the average annual temperature, and substantial increases in extreme winter minimum temperature play an important role in the rising average winter temperature; (2) There was a significant turning point in the change of pan evaporation in the northwest arid area in 1993, i.e., in which a significant decline reversed to a significant upward trend. In the 21st century, the negative effects of global warming and increasing levels of evaporation on the ecology of the northwest arid region have been highlighted; (3) Glacier change has a significant impact on hydrology in the northwest arid area, and glacier inflection points have appeared in some rivers. The melting water supply of the Tarim River Basin possesses a large portion of water supplies (about 50%). In the future, the amount of surface water will probably remain at a high state of fluctuation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dolak, Lukas; Brazdil, Rudolf; Chroma, Katerina; Valasek, Hubert; Reznickova, Ladislava
2017-04-01
Different documentary evidence (taxation records, chronicles, insurance reports etc.) and secondary sources (peer-reviewed papers, historical literature, newspapers) are used for reconstruction of hydrometeorological extremes (HMEs) in the former Jihlava region in the 1651-1880 period. The study describes the system of tax alleviation in Moravia, presents assessment of the impacts of HMEs with regard to physical-geographical characteristic of area studied, presents up to now non-utilized documentary evidence (early fire and hail damage insurance claims) and application of the new methodological approaches for the analysis of HMEs impacts. During the period studied more than 500 HMEs were analysed for the 19 estates (past basic economic units) in the region. Thunderstorm in 1651 in Rančířov (the Jihlava estate), which caused damage on the fields and meadows, is the first recorded extreme event. Downpours causing flash floods and hailstorms are the most frequently recorded natural disasters. Together with floods, droughts, windstorms, blizzards, late frosts and lightning strikes starting fires caused enormous damage as well. The impacts of HMEs are classified into three categories: impacts on agricultural production, material property and the socio-economic impacts. Natural disasters became the reasons of losses of human lives, property, supplies and farming equipment. HMEs caused damage to fields and meadows, depletion of livestock and triggered the secondary consequences as lack of seeds and finance, high prices, indebtedness, poverty and deterioration in field fertility. The results are discussed with respect to uncertainties associated with documentary evidences and their spatiotemporal distribution. The paper shows that particularly archival records, preserved in the Moravian Land Archives in Brno and other district archives, represent a unique source of data contributing to the better understanding of extreme events and their impacts in the past.
Invited review: climate change impacts in polar regions: lessons from Antarctic moss bank archives.
Royles, Jessica; Griffiths, Howard
2015-03-01
Mosses are the dominant plants in polar and boreal regions, areas which are experiencing rapid impacts of regional warming. Long-term monitoring programmes provide some records of the rate of recent climate change, but moss peat banks contain an unrivalled temporal record of past climate change on terrestrial plant Antarctic systems. We summarise the current understanding of climatic proxies and determinants of moss growth for contrasting continental and maritime Antarctic regions, as informed by 13C and 18O signals in organic material. Rates of moss accumulation are more than three times higher in the maritime Antarctic than continental Antarctica with growing season length being a critical determinant of growth rate, and high carbon isotope discrimination values reflecting optimal hydration conditions. Correlation plots of 13C and 18O values show that species (Chorisodontium aciphyllum / Polytrichum strictum) and growth form (hummock / bank) are the major determinants of measured isotope ratios. The interplay between moss growth form, photosynthetic physiology, water status and isotope composition are compared with developments of secondary proxies, such as chlorophyll fluorescence. These approaches provide a framework to consider the potential impact of climate change on terrestrial Antarctic habitats as well as having implications for future studies of temperate, boreal and Arctic peatlands. There are many urgent ecological and environmental problems in the Arctic related to mosses in a changing climate, but the geographical ranges of species and life-forms are difficult to track individually. Our goal was to translate what we have learned from the more simple systems in Antarctica, for application to Arctic habitats. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Jerez, S; López-Romero, J M; Turco, M; Jiménez-Guerrero, P; Vautard, R; Montávez, J P
2018-04-03
Variations in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) may not be included as external forcing when running regional climate models (RCMs); at least, this is a non-regulated, non-documented practice. Here we investigate the so far unexplored impact of considering the rising evolution of the CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O atmospheric concentrations on near-surface air temperature (TAS) trends, for both the recent past and the near future, as simulated by a state-of-the-art RCM over Europe. The results show that the TAS trends are significantly affected by 1-2 K century -1 , which under 1.5 °C global warming translates into a non-negligible impact of up to 1 K in the regional projections of TAS, similarly affecting projections for maximum and minimum temperatures. In some cases, these differences involve a doubling signal, laying further claim to careful reconsideration of the RCM setups with regard to the inclusion of GHG concentrations as an evolving external forcing which, for the sake of research reproducibility and reliability, should be clearly documented in the literature.
DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2018-01-01
In this research, a policy framework was developed and used as a tool to determine the impacts of change in truck traffic on a regional level as a result of policy change. To achieve the objective, three demand models were used in the framework which...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Paudyal, D. R.; McDougall, K.; Apan, A.
2014-12-01
Spatial information plays an important role in many social, environmental and economic decisions and increasingly acknowledged as a national resource essential for wider societal and environmental benefits. Natural Resource Management is one area where spatial information can be used for improved planning and decision making processes. In Australia, state government organisations are the custodians of spatial information necessary for natural resource management and regional NRM bodies are responsible to regional delivery of NRM activities. The access and sharing of spatial information between government agencies and regional NRM bodies is therefore as an important issue for improving natural resource management outcomes. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the current status of spatial information access, sharing and use with varying statutory arrangements and its impacts on spatial data infrastructure (SDI) development in catchment management sector in Australia. Further, it critically examined whether any trends and significant variations exist due to different institutional arrangements (statutory versus non-statutory) or not. A survey method was used to collect primary data from 56 regional natural resource management (NRM) bodies responsible for catchment management in Australia. Descriptive statistics method was used to show the similarities and differences between statutory and non-statutory arrangements. The key factors which influence sharing and access to spatial information are also explored. The results show the current statutory and administrative arrangements and regional focus for natural resource management is reasonable from a spatial information management perspective and provides an opportunity for building SDI at the catchment scale. However, effective institutional arrangements should align catchment SDI development activities with sub-national and national SDI development activities to address catchment management issues. We found minor
Potential Impacts of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles on Regional Power Generation
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Hadley, Stanton W; Tsvetkova, Alexandra A
2008-01-01
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are being developed around the world, with much work aiming to optimize engine and battery for efficient operation, both during discharge and when grid electricity is available for recharging. However, the general expectation has been that the grid will not be greatly affected by the use of PHEVs because the recharging will occur during off-peak hours, or the number of vehicles will grow slowly enough so that capacity planning will respond adequately. This expectation does not consider that drivers will control the timing of recharging, and their inclination will be to plug in when convenient,more » rather than when utilities would prefer. It is important to understand the ramifications of adding load from PHEVs onto the grid. Depending on when and where the vehicles are plugged in, they could cause local or regional constraints on the grid. They could require the addition of new electric capacity and increase the utilization of existing capacity. Usage patterns of local distribution grids will change, and some lines or substations may become overloaded sooner than expected. Furthermore, the type of generation used to meet the demand for recharging PHEVs will depend on the region of the country and the timing of recharging. This paper analyzes the potential impacts of PHEVs on electricity demand, supply, generation structure, prices, and associated emission levels in 2020 and 2030 in 13 regions specified by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) and the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Energy Information Administration (EIA), and on which the data and analysis in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2007 are based (Figure ES-1). The estimates of power plant supplies and regional hourly electricity demand come from publicly available sources from EIA and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Electricity requirements for PHEVs are based on analysis from the Electric Power Research Institute, with an
Solar wind interaction with comet 67P: Impacts of corotating interaction regions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Edberg, N. J. T.; Eriksson, A. I.; Odelstad, E.; Vigren, E.; Andrews, D. J.; Johansson, F.; Burch, J. L.; Carr, C. M.; Cupido, E.; Glassmeier, K.-H.; Goldstein, R.; Halekas, J. S.; Henri, P.; Koenders, C.; Mandt, K.; Mokashi, P.; Nemeth, Z.; Nilsson, H.; Ramstad, R.; Richter, I.; Wieser, G. Stenberg
2016-02-01
We present observations from the Rosetta Plasma Consortium of the effects of stormy solar wind on comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. Four corotating interaction regions (CIRs), where the first event has possibly merged with a coronal mass ejection, are traced from Earth via Mars (using Mars Express and Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN mission) to comet 67P from October to December 2014. When the comet is 3.1-2.7 AU from the Sun and the neutral outgassing rate ˜1025-1026 s-1, the CIRs significantly influence the cometary plasma environment at altitudes down to 10-30 km. The ionospheric low-energy (˜5 eV) plasma density increases significantly in all events, by a factor of >2 in events 1 and 2 but less in events 3 and 4. The spacecraft potential drops below -20 V upon impact when the flux of electrons increases. The increased density is likely caused by compression of the plasma environment, increased particle impact ionization, and possibly charge exchange processes and acceleration of mass-loaded plasma back to the comet ionosphere. During all events, the fluxes of suprathermal (˜10-100 eV) electrons increase significantly, suggesting that the heating mechanism of these electrons is coupled to the solar wind energy input. At impact the magnetic field strength in the coma increases by a factor of 2-5 as more interplanetary magnetic field piles up around the comet. During two CIR impact events, we observe possible plasma boundaries forming, or moving past Rosetta, as the strong solar wind compresses the cometary plasma environment. We also discuss the possibility of seeing some signatures of the ionospheric response to tail disconnection events.
Impact of regional SPLOST on county infrastructure.
DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2012-01-01
In response to fiscal constraints on transportation funding and the need to address transportation problems and create regional solutions, Georgia is proposing a 1% regional Special-Purpose Local-Option Sales Tax (SPLOST). To accommodate this initiat...
Briner, Simon; Elkin, Ché; Huber, Robert
2013-11-15
Provisioning of ecosystem services (ES) in mountainous regions is predicted to be influenced by i) the direct biophysical impacts of climate change, ii) climate mediated land use change, and iii) socioeconomic driven changes in land use. The relative importance and the spatial distribution of these factors on forest and agricultural derived ES, however, is unclear, making the implementation of ES management schemes difficult. Using an integrated economic-ecological modeling framework, we evaluated the impact of these driving forces on the provision of forest and agricultural ES in a mountain region of southern Switzerland. Results imply that forest ES will be strongly influenced by the direct impact of climate change, but that changes in land use will have a comparatively small impact. The simulation of direct impacts of climate change affects forest ES at all elevations, while land use changes can only be found at high elevations. In contrast, changes to agricultural ES were found to be primarily due to shifts in economic conditions that alter land use and land management. The direct influence of climate change on agriculture is only predicted to be substantial at high elevations, while socioeconomic driven shifts in land use are projected to affect agricultural ES at all elevations. Our simulation results suggest that policy schemes designed to mitigate the negative impact of climate change on forests should focus on suitable adaptive management plans, accelerating adaptation processes for currently forested areas. To maintain provision of agricultural ES policy needs to focus on economic conditions rather than on supporting adaptation to new climate. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Modeling regional and gender impacts of the 2003 summer heatwave in excessive mortality in Portugal
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ramos, Alexandre M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Nogueira, Paulo J.; Santos, Filipe D.; Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo; Gouveia, Célia; Santo, Fátima E.
2010-05-01
This work evaluates the impact of the 2003 European heatwave on excessive human mortality in Portugal, a country that presents a relatively high level of exposure to heatwave events. To estimate the fortnight expected mortality per district between 30 July and 15 August we have used five distinct baseline periods of mortality. We have opted to use the period that spans between 2000 and 2004, as it corresponds to a good compromise between a relatively long period (to guarantee some stability) and a sufficiently short period (to guarantee the similarity of the underlying population structure). Our findings show a total of 2399 excessive deaths are estimated in continental Portugal, which implies an increase of 58% over the expected deaths for those two weeks. When these values are split by gender, it is seen that women increase (79%), was considerably higher than that recorded for men (41%). The increment of mortality due to this heatwave was detected for all the 18 districts of the country, but its magnitude was significantly higher in the inner districts close to the Spanish border. When we split the regional impact by gender all districts reveal significant mortality increments for women, while the impact in men's excess deaths is not significant over 3 districts. Several temperature derived indices were used and evaluated in their capacity to explain, at the regional level, the excessive mortality (ratio between observed and expected deaths) by gender. The best relationship was found for the total exceedance of extreme days, an index combining the length of the heatwave and its intensity. Both variables hold a linear relationship with r = 0.79 for women and a poorer adjustment (r = 0.50) for men. Additionally, availability of mortality data split by age also allowed obtaining detailed information on the structure of the population in risk, namely by showing that statistically significant increments are concentrated in the last three age classes (45-64, 65-74 and
System-spanning dynamically jammed region in response to impact of cornstarch and water suspensions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Allen, Benjamin; Sokol, Benjamin; Mukhopadhyay, Shomeek; Maharjan, Rijan; Brown, Eric
2018-05-01
We experimentally characterize the structure of concentrated suspensions of cornstarch and water in response to impact. Using surface imaging and particle tracking at the boundary opposite the impactor, we observed that a visible structure and particle flow at the boundary occur with a delay after impact. We show the delay time is about the same time as the strong stress response, confirming that the strong stress response results from deformation of the dynamically jammed structure once it spans between the impactor and a solid boundary. A characterization of this strong stress response is reported in a companion paper [Maharjan, Mukhopadhyay, Allen, Storz, and Brown, Phys. Rev. E 97, 052602 (2018), 10.1103/PhysRevE.97.052602]. We observed particle flow in the outer part of the dynamically jammed region at the bottom boundary, with a net transverse displacement of up to about 5% of the impactor displacement, indicating shear at the boundary. Direct imaging of the surface of the outer part of the dynamically jammed region reveals a change in surface structure that appears the same as the result of dilation in other cornstarch suspensions. Imaging also reveals cracks, like a brittle solid. These observations suggest the dynamically jammed structure can temporarily support stress according to an effective modulus, like a soil or dense granular material, along a network of frictional contacts between the impactor and solid boundary.
Regional Climate Impacts of Stabilizing Global Warming at 1.5 K Using Solar Geoengineering
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jones, Anthony C.; Hawcroft, Matthew K.; Haywood, James M.; Jones, Andy; Guo, Xiaoran; Moore, John C.
2018-02-01
The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end-of-century global warming of 2.6-3.1 K, in clear contradiction to the 1.5 K target. In this study, we use a global climate model to investigate the climatic impacts of using solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize global-mean temperature at 1.5 K for the duration of the 21st century against three scenarios spanning the range of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). In addition to stabilizing global mean temperature and offsetting both Arctic sea-ice loss and thermosteric sea-level rise, we find that solar geoengineering could effectively counteract enhancements to the frequency of extreme storms in the North Atlantic and heatwaves in Europe, but would be less effective at counteracting hydrological changes in the Amazon basin and North Atlantic storm track displacement. In summary, solar geoengineering may reduce global mean impacts but is an imperfect solution at the regional level, where the effects of climate change are experienced. Our results should galvanize research into the regionality of climate responses to solar geoengineering.
Giaquinto, Carlo; Gabutti, Giovanni; Baldo, Vincenzo; Villa, Marco; Tramontan, Lara; Raccanello, Nadia; Russo, Francesca; Poma, Chiara; Scamarcia, Antonio; Cantarutti, Luigi; Lundin, Rebecca; Perinetti, Emilia; Cornen, Xavier; Thomas, Stéphane; Ballandras, Céline; Souverain, Audrey; Hartwig, Susanne
2018-03-05
Monovalent varicella vaccines have been available in the Veneto Region of Italy since 2004. In 2006, a single vaccine dose was added to the immunisation calendar for children aged 14 months. ProQuad®, a quadrivalent measles-mumps-rubella-varicella vaccine, was introduced in May 2007 and used, among other varicella vaccines, until October 2008. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a single dose of ProQuad, and the population impact of a vaccination program (VP) against varicella of any severity in children who received a first dose of ProQuad at 14 months of age in the Veneto Region, METHODS: All children born in 2006/2007, i.e., eligible for varicella vaccination after ProQuad was introduced, were retrospectively followed through individual-level data linkage between the Pedianet database (varicella cases) and the Regional Immunization Database (vaccination status). The direct effectiveness of ProQuad was estimated as the incidence rate of varicella in ProQuad-vaccinated children aged < 6 years compared to children with no varicella vaccination from the same birth cohort. The impact of the VP on varicella was measured by comparing children eligible for the VP to an unvaccinated historical cohort from 1997/1998. The vaccine impact measures were: total effect (the combined effect of ProQuad vaccination and being covered by the Veneto VP); indirect effect (the effect of the VP on unvaccinated individuals); and overall effect (the effect of the VP on varicella in the entire population of the Veneto Region, regardless of their vaccination status). The adjusted direct effectiveness of ProQuad was 94%. The vaccine impact measures total, indirect, and overall effect were 97%, 43%, and 90%, respectively. These are the first results on the effectiveness and impact of ProQuad against varicella; data confirmed its high effectiveness, based on immunological correlates for protection. Direct effectiveness is our only ProQuad-specific measure; all impact
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wagener, T.
2017-12-01
Current societal problems and questions demand that we increasingly build hydrologic models for regional or even continental scale assessment of global change impacts. Such models offer new opportunities for scientific advancement, for example by enabling comparative hydrology or connectivity studies, and for improved support of water management decision, since we might better understand regional impacts on water resources from large scale phenomena such as droughts. On the other hand, we are faced with epistemic uncertainties when we move up in scale. The term epistemic uncertainty describes those uncertainties that are not well determined by historical observations. This lack of determination can be because the future is not like the past (e.g. due to climate change), because the historical data is unreliable (e.g. because it is imperfectly recorded from proxies or missing), or because it is scarce (either because measurements are not available at the right scale or there is no observation network available at all). In this talk I will explore: (1) how we might build a bridge between what we have learned about catchment scale processes and hydrologic model development and evaluation at larger scales. (2) How we can understand the impact of epistemic uncertainty in large scale hydrologic models. And (3) how we might utilize large scale hydrologic predictions to understand climate change impacts, e.g. on infectious disease risk.
Linzalone, Nunzia; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Cervino, Marco; Cori, Liliana; De Gennaro, Gianluigi; Mangia, Cristina; Bustaffa, Elisa
2018-01-01
In Europe, Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is a consolidated practice aimed at predicting health impacts supporting the predisposition of plans and projects subjected to authorization procedures. In Italy, further developments are needed to harmonize the practice and consolidate methodologies in order to extend the HIA application in different fields. The recent HIA conducted in Val d'Agri (Basilicata) on the impacts of a first crude oil treatment plant represents an opportunity to illustrate its tools, methods and fields of application. In this experience, participation methods in impact assessment have been adapted to the context, emphasizing aspects of ethics, equity and democracy. Environmental and epidemiological studies were included in the HIA Val d'Agri in order to characterize the environment and assess the health status of the resident population. On the basis of the results public health recommendations have been elaborated, shared with the stakeholders and shared with local and regional administrators. The experience in Val d'Agri introduces elements of reflection on the potential of HIA at local level in order to support the public health and the environmental control systems in the area, as well as planning based on preventive environment and HIA.
Impact of external industrial sources on the regional and local air quality of Mexico Megacity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Almanza, Victor; Molina, Luisa T.; Li, Guohui; Fast, Jerome; Sosa, Gustavo
2014-05-01
The air quality of megacities can be influenced by external emissions sources on both regional and global scales. At the same time their outflow emissions can exert an important impact to the surrounding environment. The present study evaluates an SO2 peak observed on 24 March 2006 at the suburban supersite and ambient air quality monitoring stations located in the northern region of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) during MILAGRO campaign. We found that this peak could be related to an important episodic emission event coming from Tizayuca region, northeast of the MCMA. Back trajectories analyses suggest that the emission event started in the early morning at 04:00 LST and lasted for about 9 hours. The estimated emission rate is high, about 2 kg s-1. This finding suggests the possibility of 'overlooked' emission sources in Tizayuca region that could influence the air quality of the MCMA. This further motivated us to study the cement plants, including those in the State of Hidalgo and the State of Mexico. We found that they can also contribute SO2 in the NE region of the basin, at the suburban supersite and that at some monitoring stations; their contribution can be even higher than from the Tula Industrial Complex (TIC). The contribution of TIC to regional ozone levels is also estimated. The model suggests low contribution to the MCMA and slightly higher contribution at the suburban and rural supersites. However, the contribution could be high in the upper northwest region of the basin and in the southwest and south-southeast regions of the State of Hidalgo. In addition, a first estimate of the potential contribution from flaring activities to regional ozone levels is presented. Results suggest that part of the total regional ozone from TIC-generated precursors could be related to flaring activities.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Arnott, J. C.; Katzenberger, J.
2015-12-01
The impacts of global climate change to regional scales are complex and cut across sectorial and jurisdictional boundaries, and therefore, a unique enterprise of collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders for development of adequate response strategies is required. Such collaboration has been exhibited between stakeholders, researchers, and a boundary organization—the Aspen Global Change Institute—since 2005 in assessing impacts and crafting policies in response with regard to climate change impacts in the mountain watershed surrounding Aspen, CO. A series of structured stakeholder interviews and town hall sessions, impact assessment reports, and intensive collaboration between various information providers and user groups has set the stage for development of both mitigation of and adaptation to climate change impacts. The most recent example of this has included the use of global scale climate model output to inform the development of resiliency strategies in response to extreme precipitation projections. The use of this kind of resource has been considered in a variety of decision-making contexts and has included the development of region- and decision-relevant qualitative scenarios that make use of quantitative model-based information. Results from this line of work that include feedback from actual users', a boundary organization, and researchers' perspectives will be reported along with examples of policy and implementation results.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Guzzetti, Fausto
2017-04-01
According to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "warming of the climate system is unequivocal". The influence of climate changes on slope stability and landslides is also undisputable. Nevertheless, the quantitative evaluation of the impact of global warming, and the related changes in climate, on landslides remains a complex question to be solved. The evidence that climate and landslides act at only partially overlapping spatial and temporal scales complicates the evaluation. Different research fields, including e.g., climatology, physics, hydrology, geology, hydrogeology, geotechnics, soil science, environmental science, and social science, must be considered. Climatic, environmental, demographic, and economic changes are strictly correlated, with complex feedbacks, to landslide occurrence and variation. Thus, a holistic, multidisciplinary approach is necessary. We reviewed the literature on landslide-climate studies, and found a bias in their geographical distribution, with several studies centered in Europe and North America, and large parts of the world not investigated. We examined advantages and drawbacks of the approaches adopted to evaluate the effects of climate variations on landslides, including prospective modelling and retrospective methods that use landslide and climate records, and paleo-environmental information. We found that the results of landslide-climate studies depend more on the emission scenarios, the global circulation models, the regional climate models, and the methods to downscale the climate variables, than on the description of the variables controlling slope processes. Using ensembles of projections based on a range of emissions scenarios would reduce (or at least quantify) the uncertainties in the obtained results. We performed a preliminary global assessment of the future landslide impact, presenting a global distribution of the projected impact of climate change on landslide activity and abundance
Block Distribution Analysis of Impact Craters in the Tharsis and Elysium Planitia Regions on Mars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Button, N.; Karunatillake, S.; Diaz, C.; Zadei, S.; Rajora, V.; Barbato, A.; Piorkowski, M.
2017-12-01
The block distribution pattern of ejecta surrounding impact craters reveals clues about their formation. Using images from High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) image onboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO), we indentified two rayed impact craters on Mars with measurable ejecta fields to quantitatively investigate in this study. Impact Crater 1 (HiRISE image PSP_008011_1975) is located in the Tharsis region at 17.41°N, 248.75°E and is 175 m in diameter. Impact Crater 2 (HiRISE image ESP_018352_1805) is located in Elysium Planitia at 0.51°N, 163.14°E and is 320 m in diameter. Our block measurements, used to determine the area, were conducted using HiView. Employing methods similar to Krishna and Kumar (2016), we compared block size and axis ratio to block distance from the center of the crater, impact angle, and direction. Preliminary analysis of sixteen radial sectors around Impact Crater 1 revealed that in sectors containing mostly small blocks (less than 10 m2), the small blocks were ejected up to three times the diameter of the crater from the center of the crater. These small block-dominated sectors lacked blocks larger than 10 m2. Contrastingly, in large block-dominated sectors (larger than 30 m2) blocks rarely traveled farther than 200 m from the center of the crater. We also seek to determine the impact angle and direction. Krishna and Kumar (2016) calculate the b-value (N(a) = Ca-b; "N(a) equals the number of fragments or craters with a size greater than a, C is a constant, and -b is a power index") as a method to determine the impact direction. Our preliminary results for Impact Crater 1 did not clearly indicate the impact angle. With improved measurements and the assessment of Impact Crater 2, we will compare Impact Crater 1 to Impact Crater 2 as well as assess the impact angle and direction in order to determine if the craters are secondary craters. Hood, D. and Karunatillake, S. (2017), LPSC, Abstract #2640 Krishna, N., and P. S
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Pavan, Ana Laura Raymundo, E-mail: laurarpavan@gmail.com; Ometto, Aldo Roberto; Department of Production Engineering, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, Av. Trabalhador São-Carlense 400, São Carlos 13566-590, SP
Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is the main technique for evaluate the environmental impacts of product life cycles. A major challenge in the field of LCA is spatial and temporal differentiation in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methods, especially impacts resulting from land occupation and land transformation. Land use characterization modeling has advanced considerably over the last two decades and many approaches have recently included crucial aspects such as geographic differentiation. Nevertheless, characterization models have so far not been systematically reviewed and evaluated to determine their applicability to South America. Given that Brazil is the largest country in South America, thismore » paper analyzes the main international characterization models currently available in the literature, with a view to recommending regionalized models applicable on a global scale for land use life cycle impact assessments, and discusses their feasibility for regionalized assessment in Brazil. The analytical methodology involves classification based on the following criteria: midpoint/endpoint approach, scope of application, area of data collection, biogeographical differentiation, definition of recovery time and reference situation; followed by an evaluation of thirteen scientific robustness and environmental relevance subcriteria. The results of the scope of application are distributed among 25% of the models developed for the European context, and 50% have a global scope. There is no consensus in the literature about the definition of parameters such biogeographical differentiation and reference situation, and our review indicates that 35% of the models use ecoregion division while 40% use the concept of potential natural vegetation. Four characterization models show high scores in terms of scientific robustness and environmental relevance. These models are recommended for application in land use life cycle impact assessments, and also to serve as references for
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thirel, Guillaume; D'Agostino, Daniela; Démerliac, Stéphane; Dorchies, David; Flörke, Martina; Jay-Allemand, Maxime; Jost, Claudine; Kehr, Katrin; Perrin, Charles; Scardigno, Alessandra; Schneider, Christof; Theobald, Stephan; Träbing, Klaus
2014-05-01
Climate projections produced with CMIP5 and applied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its fifth assessment report indicate that changes in precipitation and temperature are expected to occur throughout Europe in the 21th century, with a likely decrease of water availability in many regions. Besides, water demand is also expected to increase, in link with these expected climate modifications, but also due to socio-economic and demographic changes. In this respect, the use of future freshwater resources may not be sustainable from the current water management perspective. Therefore adaptation strategies will most likely be needed to cope with these evolutions. In this context, the main objective of the ClimAware project (2010-2013 - www.uni-kassel.de/fb14/wasserbau/CLIMAWARE/, a project implemented within the IWRM-NET Funding Initiative) was to analyse the impacts of climate change (CC) on freshwater resources at the continental and regional scales and to identify efficient adaptation strategies to improve water management for various socio-economic sectors. This should contribute to a more effective implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and its instruments (river basin management plans, programmes of measures). The project developed integrated measures for improved freshwater management under CC constraints. More specifically, the objectives of the ClimAware project were to: • elaborate quantitative projections of changes in river flows and consequences such as flood frequency, drought occurrence and sectorial water uses. • analyse the effect of CC on the hydromorphological reference conditions of rivers and therefore the definition of "good status". • define management rules/strategies concerning dam management and irrigation practices on different time perspectives. • investigate uncertainties in climate model - scenario combinations. The research approach considered both European and regional perspectives, to get
Impact of asymmetry in the total ozone distribution in Antarctic region to the South Ocean ecosystem
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kovalenok, S.; Evtushevsky, A.; Grytsai, A.; Milinevsky, G.
2009-04-01
Impact of asymmetry in the total ozone distribution in Antarctic region to South Ocean ecosystem is studied. The existence of the considerable zonal asymmetry in total ozone distribution over Antarctica observed last decades based on the satellite TOMS measurements in 1979-2005 due to existence of quasi-stationary planetary waves in a polar stratosphere. As was shown by authors earlier in the latitudinal interval of 55-75°S in Antarctic spring months (Sep-Nov) the region of zonal total ozone minimum experienced the systematic spatial drift to the east. In the same period a minimum and maximum of quasi-stationary wave in TOC distribution are located: minimum over the Antarctic Peninsula and Weddell Sea area, and maximum in the Ross Sea area. We expect that zonal asymmetry in total ozone distribution and its long-term spatial changes should impact to South Ocean ecosystem food chain, especially in primary level. The systematic eastern shift of the quasi-stationary minimum in ozone distribution over north Weddell Sea area should cause the increased UV radiation on sea surface in comparison to Ross Sea area, where the lack of UVR should exist in spring month. To study this influence the available data of phytoplankton distribution in South Ocean in 1997-2007 were analyzed. The results of analysis in connections with Antarctic Peninsula regional climate warming are discussed. The research was partly supported by project 06BF051-12 of the National Taras Shevchenko University of Kyiv.
Roquelaure, Yves; Fouquet, Natacha; Chazelle, Emilie; Descatha, Alexis; Evanoff, Bradley; Bodin, Julie; Petit, Audrey
2018-04-02
Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) is the most common nerve entrapment neuropathy in the working-age population. The reduction of CTS incidence in the workforce is a priority for policy makers due to the human, social and economic costs. To assess the theoretical impact of workplace-based primary interventions designed to reduce exposure to personal and/or work-related risk factors for CTS. Surgical CTS were assessed using regional hospital discharge records for persons aged 20-59 in 2009. Using work-related attributable fractions (AFEs), we estimated the number of work-related CTS (WR-CTS) in high-risk jobs. We simulated three theoretical scenarios of workplace-based primary prevention for jobs at risk: a mono-component work-centered intervention reducing the incidence of WR-CTS arbitrarily by 10% (10%-WI), and multicomponent global interventions reducing the incidence of all surgical CTS by 5% and 10% by targeting personal and work risk factors. A limited proportion of CTS were work-related in the region's population. WR-CTS were concentrated in nine jobs at high risk of CTS, amounting to 1603 [1137-2212] CTS, of which 906 [450-1522] were WR-CTS. The 10%-WI, 5%-GI and 10%-GI hypothetically prevented 90 [46-153], 81 [58-111] and 159 [114-223] CTS, respectively. The 10%-GI had the greatest impact regardless of the job. The impact of the 10%-WI interventions was high only in jobs at highest risk and AFEs (e.g. food industry jobs). The 10%-WI and 5%-GI had a similar impact for moderate-risk jobs (e.g. healthcare jobs). The impact of simulated workplace-based interventions suggests that prevention efforts to reduce exposure to work-related risk factors should focus on high-risk jobs. Reducing CTS rates will also require integrated strategies to reduce personal risk factors, particularly in jobs with low levels of work-related risk of CTS.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Van Loon, Anne; Laaha, Gregor; Van Lanen, Henny; Parajka, Juraj; Fleig, Anne; Ploum, Stefan
2016-04-01
Around the world, drought events with severe socio-economic impacts seem to have a link with winter snowpack. That is the case for the current California drought, but analysing historical archives and drought impact databases for the US and Europe we found many impacts that can be attributed to snowpack anomalies. Agriculture and electricity production (hydropower) were found to be the sectors that are most affected by drought related to snow. In this study, we investigated the processes underlying hydrological drought in snow-dominated regions. We found that drought drivers are different in different regions. In Norway, more than 90% of spring streamflow droughts were preceded by below-average winter precipitation, while both winter air temperature and spring weather were indifferent. In Austria, however, spring streamflow droughts could only be explained by a combination of factors. For most events, winter and spring air temperatures were above average (70% and 65% of events, respectively), and winter and spring precipitation was below average (75% and 80%). Because snow storage results from complex interactions between precipitation and temperature and these variables vary strongly with altitude, snow-related drought drivers have a large spatial variability. The weather input is subsequently modified by land properties. Multiple linear regression between drought severity variables and a large number of catchment characteristics for 44 catchments in Austria showed that storage influences both drought duration and deficit volume. The seasonal storage of water in snow and glaciers was found to be a statistically important variable explaining streamflow drought deficit. Our drought impact analysis in Europe also showed that 40% of the selected drought impacts was caused by a combination of snow-related and other drought types. For example, the combination of a winter drought with a preceding or subsequent summer drought was reported to have a large effect on
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Van Loon, A.; Laaha, G.; Van Lanen, H.; Parajka, J.; Fleig, A. K.; Ploum, S.
2015-12-01
Around the world, drought events with severe socio-economic impacts seem to have a link with winter snowpack. That is the case for the current California drought, but analysing historical archives and drought impact databases for the US and Europe we found many impacts that can be attributed to snowpack anomalies. Agriculture and electricity production (hydropower) were found to be the sectors that are most affected by drought related to snow. In this study, we investigated the processes underlying hydrological drought in snow-dominated regions. We found that drought drivers are different in different regions. In Norway, more than 90% of spring streamflow droughts were preceded by below-average winter precipitation, while both winter air temperature and spring weather were indifferent. In Austria, however, spring streamflow droughts could only be explained by a combination of factors. For most events, winter and spring air temperatures were above average (70% and 65% of events, respectively), and winter and spring precipitation was below average (75% and 80%). Because snow storage results from complex interactions between precipitation and temperature and these variables vary strongly with altitude, snow-related drought drivers have a large spatial variability. The weather input is subsequently modified by land properties. Multiple linear regression between drought severity variables and a large number of catchment characteristics for 44 catchments in Austria showed that storage influences both drought duration and deficit volume. The seasonal storage of water in snow and glaciers was found to be a statistically important variable explaining streamflow drought deficit. Our drought impact analysis in Europe also showed that 40% of the selected drought impacts was caused by a combination of snow-related and other drought types. For example, the combination of a winter drought with a preceding or subsequent summer drought was reported to have a large effect on
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anenberg, S. C.; Talgo, K.; Arunachalam, S.; Dolwick, P.; Jang, C.; West, J. J.
2011-04-01
As a component of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), black carbon (BC) is associated with premature human mortality. BC also affects climate by absorbing solar radiation and reducing planetary albedo. Several studies have examined the climate impacts of BC emissions, but the associated health impacts have been studied less extensively. Here, we examine the surface PM2.5 and premature mortality impacts of halving anthropogenic BC emissions globally, from eight world regions, and from three major economic sectors. We use a global chemical transport model, MOZART-4, to simulate PM2.5 concentrations and a health impact function to calculate premature cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths. We estimate that halving global anthropogenic BC emissions reduces outdoor population-weighted average PM2.5 by 542 ng m-3 (1.8%) and avoids 157 000 (95% confidence interval, 120 000-194 000) annual premature deaths globally, with the vast majority occurring within the source region. While most of these avoided deaths can be achieved by halving East Asian emissions (54%), followed by South Asian emissions (31%), South Asian emissions have 50% greater mortality impacts per unit BC emitted than East Asian emissions. Globally, the contribution of residential, industrial, and transportation BC emissions to PM2.5-related mortality is 1.3, 1.2, and 0.6 times each sector's contribution to anthropogenic BC emissions, owing to the degree of co-location with population. Impacts of residential BC emissions are underestimated since indoor PM2.5 exposure is excluded. We estimate ~8 times more avoided deaths when BC and organic carbon (OC) emissions are halved together, suggesting that these results greatly underestimate the full air pollution-related mortality benefits of BC mitigation strategies which generally decrease both BC and OC. Confidence in our results would be strengthened by reducing uncertainties in emissions, model parameterization of aerosol processes, grid resolution, and PM2
Plotnick, Robert D.; Romich, Jennifer; Thacker, Jennifer; Dunbar, Matthew
2011-01-01
This study contributes to the debate about tolls’ equity impacts by examining the potential economic costs of tolling for low-income and non-low-income households. Using data from the Puget Sound metropolitan region in Washington State and GIS methods to map driving routes from home to work, we examine car ownership and transportation patterns among low-income and non-low-income households. We follow standard practice of estimating tolls’ potential impact only on households with workers who would drive on tolled and non-tolled facilities. We then redo the analysis including broader groups of households. We find that the degree of regressivity is quite sensitive to the set of households included in the analysis. The results suggest that distributional analyses of tolls should estimate impacts on all households in the relevant region in addition to impacts on just users of roads that are currently tolled or likely to be tolled. PMID:21818172
Impact of Aircraft Emissions on Reactive Nitrogen over the North Atlantic Flight Corridor Region
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Koike, M.; Kondo, Y.; Ikeda, H.; Gregory, G. L.; Anderson, B. E.; Sachse, G. W.; Blake, D.; Liu, S. C.; Singh, H. B.; Thompson, A.
1999-01-01
The impact of aircraft emissions on reactive nitrogen in the upper troposphere (UT) and lowermost stratosphere (LS) was estimated using the NO(y)-O3 correlation obtained during the SASS Ozone and NO(x) Experiment (SONEX) carried out over the US continent and North Atlantic Flight Corridor (NAFC) region in October and November 1997. To evaluate the large scale impact, we made a reference NO(y)-O3 relationship in air masses, upon which aircraft emissions were considered to have little impact. For this purpose, the integrated input of NO(x) from aircraft into an air mass along a 10-d back trajectory (DELTA-NO(y)) was calculated based on the ANCAT/EC2 emission inventory. The excess NO(y) (dNO(y)) was calculated from the observed NO(y) and the reference NO(y)-O3 relationship. As a result, a weak positive correlation was found between the dNO(y) and DELTA-NO(y), and dNO(y) and NO(x)/NO(y) values, while no positive correlation between the dNO(y) and CO values was found, suggesting that dNO(y) values can be used as a measure of the NO(x) input from aircraft emissions. The excess NO(y) values calculated from another NO(y)-O3 reference relationship made using in-situ CN data also agreed with these dNO(y) values, within the uncertainties. At the NAFC region (45 N - 60 N), the median value of dNO(y) in the troposphere increased with altitude above 9 km and reached 70 pptv (20% of NO(y)) at 11 km. The excess NO(x) was estimated to be about half of the dNO(y) values, corresponding to 30% of the observed NO(x) level. Higher dNO(y) values were generally found in air masses where O3 = 75 - 125 ppbv, suggesting a more pronounced effect around the tropopause. The median value of dNO(y) in the stratosphere at the NAFC region at 8.5 - 11.5 km was about 120 pptv. The higher dNO(y) values in the LS were probably due to the accumulated effect of aircraft emissions, given the long residence time of affected air in the LS. Similar dNO(y) values were also obtained in air masses sampled over
Impact of aircraft emissions on reactive nitrogen over the North Atlantic Flight Corridor region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Koike, M.; Kondo, Y.; Ikeda, H.; Gregory, G. L.; Anderson, B. E.; Sachse, G. W.; Blake, D. R.; Liu, S. C.; Singh, H. B.; Thompson, A. M.; Kita, K.; Zhao, Y.; Sugita, T.; Shetter, R. E.; Toriyama, N.
2000-02-01
The impact of aircraft emissions on reactive nitrogen in the upper troposphere (UT) and lowermost stratosphere (LS) was estimated using the NOy-O3 correlation obtained during the Subsonic Assessment (SASS) Ozone and Nitrogen Oxide Experiment (SONEX) carried out over the U.S. continent and North Atlantic Flight Corridor (NAFC) region in October and November 1997. To evaluate the large-scale impact, we made a reference NOy-O3 relationship in air masses, upon which aircraft emissions were considered to have little impact. For this purpose, the integrated input of NOx from aircraft into an air mass along a 10-day back trajectory (ΔNOy) was calculated based on the Abatement of Nuisance Caused by Air Traffic/European Commission (ANCAT/EC2) emission inventory. The excess NOy (dNOy) was calculated from the observed NOy and the reference NOy-O3 relationship. As a result, a weak positive correlation was found between the dNOy and ΔNOy, and dNOy and NOx/NOy values, while no positive correlation between the dNOy and CO values was found, suggesting that dNOy values can be used as a measure of the NOx input from aircraft emissions. The excess NOy values calculated from another NOy-O3 reference relationship made using in situ condensation nuclei data also agreed with these dNOy values, within the uncertainties. At the NAFC region (45°N-60°N) the median value of dNOy in the troposphere increased with altitude above 9 km and reached 70 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) (20% of NOy) at 11 km. The excess NOx was estimated to be about half of the dNOy values, corresponding to 30% of the observed NOx level. Higher dNOy values were generally found in air masses where O3 = 75-125 ppbv, suggesting a more pronounced effect around the tropopause. The median value of dNOy in the stratosphere at the NAFC region at 8.5-11.5 km was about 120 pptv. The higher dNOy values in the LS were probably due to the accumulated effect of aircraft emissions, given the long residence time of affected
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aryal, Achyut; Brunton, Dianne; Raubenheimer, David
2014-02-01
The Trans-Himalaya region boasts an immense biodiversity which includes several threatened species and supports the livelihood of local human populations. Our aim in this study was to evaluate the impact of recent climate change on the biodiversity and human inhabitants of the upper Mustang region of the Trans-Himalaya, Nepal. We found that the average annual temperature in the upper Mustang region has increased by 0.13 °C per year over the last 23 years; a higher annual temperature increase than experienced in other parts of Himalaya. A predictive model suggested that the mean annual temperature will double by 2161 to reach 20 °C in the upper Mustang region. The combined effects of increased temperature and diminished snowfall have resulted in a reduction in the area of land suitable for agriculture. Most seriously affected are Samjung village (at 4,100 m altitude) and Dhey village (at 3,800 m) in upper Mustang, where villagers have been forced to relocate to an area with better water availability. Concurrent with the recent change in climate, there have been substantial changes in vegetation communities. Between 1979 and 2009, grasslands and forests in the Mustang district have diminished by 11 and 42 %, respectively, with the tree line having shifted towards higher elevation. Further, grasses and many shrub species are no longer found in abundance at higher elevations and consequently blue sheep ( Pseduois nayaur) move to forage at lower elevations where they encounter and raid human crops. The movement of blue sheep attracts snow leopard ( Panthera uncia) from their higher-elevation habitats to lower sites, where they encounter and depredate livestock. Increased crop raiding by blue sheep and depredations of livestock by snow leopard have impacted adversely on the livelihoods of local people.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Peel, S. E.; Burr, D. M.
2018-06-01
We mapped enigmatic sedimentary deposits within five partially exhumed impact craters within the Aeolis Dorsa Region of Mars. Ten units have been identified and are found to be consistent with deposition within and adjacent to lacustrine systems.
Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Rizzi, J; Zabeo, A; Critto, A; Marcomini, A
2012-12-01
Climate change impact assessment on water resources has received high international attention over the last two decades, due to the observed global warming and its consequences at the global to local scale. In particular, climate-related risks for groundwater and related ecosystems pose a great concern to scientists and water authorities involved in the protection of these valuable resources. The close link of global warming with water cycle alterations encourages research to deepen current knowledge on relationships between climate trends and status of water systems, and to develop predictive tools for their sustainable management, copying with key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groundwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed in order to identify impacts from climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems (e.g. surface waters, agricultural areas, natural environments) and to rank areas and receptors at risk in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). Based on an integrated analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks linked to climate change at the regional scale, a RRA framework complying with the Sources-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) approach was defined. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters (i.e. groundwater level variations, changes in nitrate infiltration processes, changes in water availability for irrigation) were selected and analyzed through hazard scenario, exposure, susceptibility and risk assessment. The RRA methodology used hazard scenarios constructed through global and high resolution model simulations for the 2071-2100 period, according to IPCC A1B emission scenario in order to produce useful indications for future risk prioritization and to support the addressing of adaptation measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR) techniques. Relevant
Burton, Taylour G; Rifai, Hanadi S; Hildenbrand, Zacariah L; Carlton, Doug D; Fontenot, Brian E; Schug, Kevin A
2016-03-01
Hydraulic fracturing operations have been viewed as the cause of certain environmental issues including groundwater contamination. The potential for hydraulic fracturing to induce contaminant pathways in groundwater is not well understood since gas wells are completed while isolating the water table and the gas-bearing reservoirs lay thousands of feet below the water table. Recent studies have attributed ground water contamination to poor well construction and leaks in the wellbore annulus due to ruptured wellbore casings. In this paper, a geospatial model of the Barnett Shale region was created using ArcGIS. The model was used for spatial analysis of groundwater quality data in order to determine if regional variations in groundwater quality, as indicated by various groundwater constituent concentrations, may be associated with the presence of hydraulically fractured gas wells in the region. The Barnett Shale reservoir pressure, completions data, and fracture treatment data were evaluated as predictors of groundwater quality change. Results indicated that elevated concentrations of certain groundwater constituents are likely related to natural gas production in the study area and that beryllium, in this formation, could be used as an indicator variable for evaluating fracturing impacts on regional groundwater quality. Results also indicated that gas well density and formation pressures correlate to change in regional water quality whereas proximity to gas wells, by itself, does not. The results also provided indirect evidence supporting the possibility that micro annular fissures serve as a pathway transporting fluids and chemicals from the fractured wellbore to the overlying groundwater aquifers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Roohani, Yusuf H.; Roy, Anirban A.; Heo, Jinhyok; Robinson, Allen L.; Adams, Peter J.
2017-04-01
The Marcellus and Utica shale formations have recently been the focus of intense natural gas development and production, increasing regional air pollutant emissions. Here we examine the effects of these emissions on regional ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels using the chemical transport model, CAMx, and estimate the public health costs with BenMAP. Simulations were performed for three emissions scenarios for the year 2020 that span a range potential development storylines. In areas with the most gas development, the 'Medium Emissions' scenario, which corresponds to an intermediate level of development and widespread adoption of new equipment with lower emissions, is predicted to increase 8-hourly ozone design values by up to 2.5 ppbv and average annual PM2.5 concentrations by as much as 0.27 μg/m3. These impacts could range from as much as a factor of two higher to a factor of three lower depending on the level of development and the adoption of emission controls. Smaller impacts (e.g. 0.1-0.5 ppbv of ozone, depending on the emissions scenario) are predicted for non-attainment areas located downwind of the Marcellus region such as New York City, Philadelphia and Washington, DC. Premature deaths for the 'Medium Emissions' scenario are predicted to increase by 200-460 annually. The health impacts as well as the changes in ozone and PM2.5 were all driven primarily by NOx emissions.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Sandoval, A.D.
1979-05-01
The report provides an overview of the MULTIREGION model and its use to determine the regional economic implications of three energy and economic projections developed for use in the EIA's 1977 Annual Report to Congress. The MULTIREGION projections are compared with similar projections undertaken using the Regional Earnings Impact System (REIS), developed and maintained by EIA. The strengths and weaknesses of the two modeling systems are reviewed. Examples of the MULTIREGION projection output are presented in an appendix. (MCW)
The impacts of land use, radiative forcing, and biological changes on regional climate in Japan
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dairaku, K.; Pielke, R. A., Sr.
2013-12-01
Because regional responses of surface hydrological and biogeochemical changes are particularly complex, it is necessary to develop assessment tools for regional scale adaptation to climate. We developed a dynamical downscaling method using the regional climate model (NIED-RAMS) over Japan. The NIED-RAMS model includes a plant model that considers biological processes, the General Energy and Mass Transfer Model (GEMTM) which adds spatial resolution to accurately assess critical interactions within the regional climate system for vulnerability assessments to climate change. We digitalized a potential vegetation map that formerly existed only on paper into Geographic Information System data. It quantified information on the reduction of green spaces and the expansion of urban and agricultural areas in Japan. We conducted regional climate sensitivity experiments of land use and land cover (LULC) change, radiative forcing, and biological effects by using the NIED-RAMS with horizontal grid spacing of 20 km. We investigated regional climate responses in Japan for three experimental scenarios: 1. land use and land cover is changed from current to potential vegetation; 2. radiative forcing is changed from 1 x CO2 to 2 x CO2; and 3. biological CO2 partial pressures in plants are doubled. The experiments show good accuracy in reproducing the surface air temperature and precipitation. The experiments indicate the distinct change of hydrological cycles in various aspects due to anthropogenic LULC change, radiative forcing, and biological effects. The relative impacts of those changes are discussed and compared. Acknowledgments This study was conducted as part of the research subject "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Hazard Assessed Using Regional Climate Scenarios in the Tokyo Region' (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention; PI: Koji Dairaku) of Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA), and was supported by the
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mahura, A. G.; Baklanov, A. A.
2003-10-01
The probabilistic analysis of atmospheric transport patterns from most important nuclear risk sites in the Euro-Arctic region is performed employing the methodology developed within the "Arctic Risk" Project of the NARP Programme (Baklanov and Mahura, 2003). The risk sites are the nuclear power plants in the Northwest Russia, Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, United Kingdom, and Germany as well as the Novaya Zemlya test site of Russia. The geographical regions of interest are the Northern and Central European countries and Northwest Russia. In this study, the employed research tools are the trajectory model to calculate a multiyear dataset of forward trajectories that originated over the risk site locations, and a set of statistical methods (including exploratory, cluster, and probability fields analyses) for analysis of trajectory modelling results. The probabilistic analyses of trajectory modelling results for eleven sites are presented as a set of various indicators of the risk sites possible impact on geographical regions and countries of interest. The nuclear risk site possible impact (on a particular geographical region, territory, country, site, etc.) due to atmospheric transport from the site after hypothetical accidental release of radioactivity can be properly estimated based on a combined interpretation of the indicators (simple characteristics, atmospheric transport pathways, airflow and fast transport probability fields, maximum reaching distance and maximum possible impact zone, typical transport time and precipitation factor fields) for different time periods (annual, seasonal, and monthly) for any selected site (both separately for each site or grouped for several sites) in the Euro-Arctic region. Such estimation could be the useful input information for the decision-making process, risk assessment, and planning of emergency response systems for sites of nuclear, chemical, and biological danger.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Salzmann, N.; Huggel, C.; Calanca, P.; Diaz, A.; Jonas, T.; Konzelmann, T.; Lagos, P.; Rohrer, M.; Silverio, W.; Zappa, M.
2009-04-01
Changes in the availability of fresh water caused by climatic changes will become a major issue in the coming years and decades. In this context, regions presently depending on water from retreating mountain glaciers are particularly vulnerable. In many parts of the Andes for example, people already suffer from the impacts of reduced glacier run off. Therefore, the development and implementation of adequate adaptation measures is an urgent need. To better understand the impact of climate change on water resources in the Andean region, a new research program (PACC - Programa de Adaptación al Cambio Climático en el Perú) between Peru and Switzerland has recently been launched by SDC (Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation). As a first step, a scientific baseline relative to climatology, hydrology, agriculture and natural disasters will be developed on a regional scale for the Departments of Cusco and Apurimac in close cooperation with partners from Universities and governmental institutions as well as NGOs in Peru. A reliable data baseline is a must for the development of adaptation measures that can effectively cope with the risks induced by climate change. The realization of this task in remote mountain regions, where observational data are generally sparse, however, is challenging. Temporal and spatial gaps must be filled using indirect methods such as re-analyses, remote sensing and interpolation techniques. For future scenarios, the use of climate model output along with statistical and dynamical downscaling is indicated. This contribution will present and discuss approaches and possible concepts to tackle the challenges in a Peruvian context. In addition, first experiences will be reported particularly on cross-disciplinary issues that naturally emerge from the integrative perspective needed in climate change impact assessments and the development of adaptation strategies.
Sojević Timotijević, Zorica; Majcan, Predrag; Trajković, Goran; Relić, Milijana; Novaković, Tatjana; Mirković, Momčilo; Djurić, Sladjana; Nikolić, Simon; Lazić, Bratislav; Janković, Slavenka
2017-10-01
Psoriasis severity varies by body region, with each affected region having a different impact on patient quality of life (QoL). The aim of this study was to assess the impact of changes in the Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) scores by body region on QoL in patients with psoriasis after treatment. A total of 100 patients with psoriasis were recruited to the study. All patients completed the generic EuroQol-5D instrument and two specific QoL measures, Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) and Psoriasis Disability Index (PDI) at the beginning of the study, and 50 patients successfully completed the same questionnaires four weeks after the end of the treatment. Clinical severity was assessed using PASI total score and PASI body region (head, trunk, arms, and legs) scores. QoL improved after treatment, and PASI improvements on visible body regions (head, legs, and arms) showed significant correlation with the most sub-areas of the Visual Analog Scale (EQ VAS), DLQI, and PDI. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that PASI improvement (particularly on the head), sex, age, and disease duration were predictors of QoL score changes for most domains of the three instruments. Improvement of psoriasis in visible body regions has an appreciable influence on QoL improvement, and may positively affect treatment success in patients with psoriasis.
Gouranga G. Das; Janki R.R. Alavalapati; Douglas R. Carter; Marions E. Tsigas
2005-01-01
In this paper, a multiregional computable general equilibrium model, which divides the United States (US) into four broad geographical regions and aggregates other nations into the rest of the world, is used to analyze the effects associated with environmental and technological policy shifts in the US forest sector. In particular, we analyze the impacts of: (i) a 20%...
Global Impacts of Long-Term Land Cover Changes Within China's Densely Populated Rural Regions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ellis, E. C.
2006-12-01
Long-term changes in land cover are usually investigated in terms of large-scale change processes such as urban expansion, deforestation and land conversion to agriculture. Yet China's densely populated agricultural regions, which cover more than 2 million square kilometers of Monsoon Asia, have been transformed profoundly over the past fifty years by fine-scale changes in land cover caused by unprecedented changes in population, technology and social conditions. Using a regional sampling and upscaling design coupled with high-resolution landscape change measurements at five field sites, we investigated long-term changes in land cover and ecological processes, circa 1945 to 2002, within and across China's densely populated agricultural regions. As expected, the construction of buildings and roads increased impervious surface area over time, but the total net increase was surprising, being similar in magnitude to the total current extent of China's cities. Agricultural land area declined over the same period, while tree cover increased, by about 10%, driven by tree planting and regrowth around new buildings, the introduction of perennial agriculture, improved forestry, and declines in annual crop cultivation. Though changes in impervious surface areas were closely related to changes in population density, long-term changes in agricultural land and tree cover were unrelated to populated density and required explanation by more complex models with strong regional and biophysical components. Moreover, most of these changes occurred primarily at fine spatial scales (< 30 m), under the threshold for conventional global and regional land cover change measurements. Given that these changes in built structures and vegetation cover have the potential to contribute substantially to regional and global changes in biogeochemistry, hydrology, and land-atmosphere interactions, future investigations of these changes and their impacts across Monsoon Asia would benefit from models
McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Rokho; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Iddings, Steven; Naicker, Jyotishma; Bambrick, Hilary; McMichael, Anthony J; Ebi, Kristie L
2016-11-01
Between 2010 and 2012, the World Health Organization Division of Pacific Technical Support led a regional climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project, in collaboration with health sector partners, in 13 Pacific island countries-Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. We assessed the vulnerabilities of Pacific island countries to the health impacts of climate change and planned adaptation strategies to minimize such threats to health. This assessment involved a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The former included descriptive epidemiology, time series analyses, Poisson regression, and spatial modeling of climate and climate-sensitive disease data, in the few instances where this was possible; the latter included wide stakeholder consultations, iterative consensus building, and expert opinion. Vulnerabilities were ranked using a "likelihood versus impact" matrix, and adaptation strategies were prioritized and planned accordingly. The highest-priority climate-sensitive health risks in Pacific island countries included trauma from extreme weather events, heat-related illnesses, compromised safety and security of water and food, vector-borne diseases, zoonoses, respiratory illnesses, psychosocial ill-health, non-communicable diseases, population pressures, and health system deficiencies. Adaptation strategies relating to these climate change and health risks could be clustered according to categories common to many countries in the Pacific region. Pacific island countries are among the most vulnerable in the world to the health impacts of climate change. This vulnerability is a function of their unique geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics combined with their exposure to changing weather patterns associated with climate change, the health risks entailed, and the limited capacity
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Yang, Q.; Gustafson, W. I.; Fast, J. D.
2012-09-28
Cloud-system resolving simulations with the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Chem) model are used to quantify the relative impacts of regional anthropogenic and oceanic emissions on changes in aerosol properties, cloud macro- and microphysics, and cloud radiative forcing over the Southeast Pacific (SEP) during the VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx) (15 October–16 November 2008). Two distinct regions are identified. The near-coast polluted region is characterized by low surface precipitation rates, the strong suppression of non-sea-salt particle activation due to sea-salt particles, a predominant albedo effect in aerosol indirect effects, and limited impact of aerosols associated withmore » anthropogenic emissions on clouds. Opposite sensitivities to natural marine and anthropogenic aerosol perturbations are seen in cloud properties (e.g., cloud optical depth and cloud-top and cloud-base heights), precipitation, and the top-of-atmosphere and surface shortwave fluxes over this region. The relatively clean remote region is characterized by large contributions of aerosols from non-regional sources (lateral boundaries) and much stronger drizzle at the surface. Under a scenario of five-fold increase in regional anthropogenic emissions, this relatively clean region shows large cloud responses, for example, a 13% increase in cloud-top height and a 9% increase in albedo in response to a moderate increase (25% of the reference case) in cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration. The reduction of precipitation due to this increase in anthropogenic aerosols more than doubles the aerosol lifetime in the clean marine boundary layer. Therefore, the aerosol impacts on precipitation are amplified by the positive feedback of precipitation on aerosol, which ultimately alters the cloud micro- and macro-physical properties, leading to strong aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions. The high sensitivity is also
Impact on mortality of biomass combustion from wildfires in Spain: A regional analysis.
Linares, C; Carmona, R; Salvador, P; Díaz, J
2018-05-01
Studies that analyse the impact on mortality of particulate matter (PM) produced by biomass combustion from wildfires mostly focus on a single city or on cities in different countries, with very few concentrating on one country as a whole. Accordingly, the aim of this paper was to analyse the impact that PM has on daily mortality in Spain on days with biomass combustion from wildfires. To analyse natural PM advections the Ministry of Agriculture and Fishing, Food & Environment divides Spain into 9 geographical regions. One province representative of each region for was selected analysis purposes, with provincial daily natural-cause mortality across the period 2004-2009 as the dependent variable, and daily mean PM concentrations in the provincial capital as the independent variable. We controlled for the effect of other chemical pollutants (NO 2 and O 3 ), maximum daily temperature on heat-wave days, day of the week, trends, seasonalities and the autoregressive nature of the series, using generalised linear models with the Poisson regression link to calculate relative risks (RRs) and the increase in RR (IRR) of PM-related mortality. The analysis was performed for days with and without biomass advections (DBA and DNBA respectively), with a breakdown by year, summer, and the remainder of the year (i.e., excluding summer). The results indicated that daily mean PM concentrations were higher on DBA than on DNBA, with statistically significant differences in most provinces. Furthermore, PM 10 was associated with higher daily mortality on DBA in regions where wildfires were most frequent, but not in the remaining provinces. This translated as an IRR per 10μg/m 3 of PM of 7.93 (2.36-13.81) in the North-west, 3.76 (1.36-6.22) in the Centre and 4.46 (2.99-5.94) in the South-west, values which in all cases were statistically higher than those obtained on DNBA. The increase in PM caused by biomass advections from wildfires is linked to a significant IRR of mortality in Spain
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Suyono, Joko; Sukoco, Agus; Ikhsan Setiawan, M.; Suhermin; Rahim, Robbi
2017-12-01
Indonesia a great number of populations and demand of air transportation services keep increasing by the year in line with the increasing of population and welfare its people. Need for telematics solutions to support goods transport and distribution in cities is mainly due to the complexity of the processes taking place in urban transport systems and the importance of the optimisation of transport operations via ensuring adequate availability of linear and point infrastructure, while reducing the adverse impacts of the transport system on the environment. Efficient infrastructure supports economic growth, improves quality of life, and it is important for national security. Impact of GDP Information Technology in developing of Regional Central Business especially SME Business, are very large correlations and very significant supported by Passenger Arrival and Departure, Baggage Loaded and Unloaded, Cargo Loaded and Unloaded, Separated regional asset, Grant, Capital Expenditure, Investment of Regional Gov., GDP Agriculture-Forestry-Fishing, GDP Manufacturing, GDP Electricity-Gas, GDP Water supply- Sewerage-Waste Management-Remediation Activities, GDP Financial-Insurance Activities, GDP Business Activities, GDP Public Administration and Defense-Compulsory Social Security, GDP Education and GDP Other Services Activities
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Singh, Ramesh; Garg, Kaushal K.; Wani, Suhas P.; Tewari, R. K.; Dhyani, S. K.
2014-02-01
Bundelkhand region of Central India is a hot spot of water scarcity, land degradation, poverty and poor socio-economic status. Impacts of integrated watershed development (IWD) interventions on water balance and different ecosystem services are analyzed in one of the selected watershed of 850 ha in Bundelkhand region. Improved soil, water and crop management interventions in Garhkundar-Dabar (GKD) watershed of Bundelkhand region in India enhanced ET to 64% as compared to 58% in untreated (control) watershed receiving 815 mm annual average rainfall. Reduced storm flow (21% vs. 34%) along with increased base flow (4.5% vs. 1.2%) and groundwater recharge (11% vs. 7%) of total rainfall received were recorded in treated watershed as compared to untreated control watershed. Economic Water productivity and total income increased from 2.5 to 5.0 INR m-3 and 11,500 to 27,500 INR ha-1 yr-1 after implementing integrated watershed development interventions in GKD watershed, respectively. Moreover IWD interventions helped in reducing soil loss more than 50% compared to control watershed. The results demonstrated that integrated watershed management practices addressed issues of poverty in GKD watershed. Benefit to cost ratio of project interventions was found three and pay back period within four years suggest economic feasibility to scale-up IWD interventions in Bundelkhend region. Scaling-up of integrated watershed management in drought prone rainfed areas with enabling policy and institutional support is expected to promote equity and livelihood along with strengthening various ecosystem services, however, region-specific analysis is needed to assess trade-offs for downstream areas along with onsite impact.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zegre, N.; Gaertner, B. A.; Fernandez, R.
2016-12-01
The timing of phenological parameters such as spring onset and autumn senescence are important controls on the partitioning of water into evaporation and streamflow. Climate largely drives seasonal characteristics of plants and changes in phenological timing can be used to detect the impacts of climate change on water balance controls. However, limited phenological research is available for regions dominated by forest cover such as the central Appalachian Mountains region of the United States. To quantify the impacts of climate change on phenological timing and streamflow in this region, we used GIMMS AVHRR NDVI 13g data from 1982-2012 and the TIMESAT program to extract seasonality parameters. Results show that spring onset has advanced by 9 days, autumn senescence has been delayed by 11 days, and growing season has lengthened by 20 days. Above 500 m elevation, spring onset occurs 2-3 days later; fall senescence arrives 1-2 days earlier, and growing season shortens by 3-5 days. Streamflow has decreased during the growing season over the 31-year study period throughout the region, with the most pronounced effects for the Tennessee River watershed, the southernmost reach of the study area. The elevation patterns are in general agreement with Hopkins law, which states a one-day delay in spring onset for every 30-meter increase in elevation. Streamflow patterns suggest that the southern central Appalachian region is sensitive to changes in climate and are becoming drier, having important implications for drinking water supply, forest ecosystem management, ecosystem services including drinking water supply, and overall forest health.
[Impact of waste landfills in the Saratov region on the sanitary condition of the soil].
Eremin, V N; Reshetnikov, M V; Sheshnev, A S
Monitoring of environment in regions of the location of waste landfills includes the implementation of the control over a sanitary condition of soils. The main origins of the spread ofpollutants into soils are the solid particles from aerosol emissions from the functioning of landfills transmitted to surrounding territories. Within zones of the impact of three largest waste landfills in the Saratov region (Aleksandrovsky, Guselsky in the city of Saratov and Balakovsky in the city of Balakovo) there were taken 152 soil samples. According to results of the estimation in soil concentration of gross and motile forms of heavy metals of the first (Zn, Cd, Ni) and the second danger classes (Cu, Cr, Pb) there was performed the analysis of coefficients of danger- K0 and total coefficients ofpollution - Zc. There was executed the assessment of both a sanitary and hygienic condition of soils and degree of danger ofpollution. The most contrast areal features of the distribution of the danger coefficient - Ko in soils are characteristic for motile forms of heavy metals. For all three studied objects persistently there is stood out the dangerous and areal pollution of soils by association of Ni and Cu . The danger ofpollution of soils by gross forms of heavy metals is minimum. The coefficient of total pollution of Zc exceeds admissible level on motile forms of heavy metals only for the soils surrounding the Balakovo landfill. In zones of the impact of waste landfills there are located the processed lands with an adverse sanitary and hygienic condition of soils. In the region of the Guselsky object soils of the processed agricultural grounds are dangerously polluted by motile forms of Ni and Cu. In vicinities of the Balakovo waste landfill considerable areas of private gardening enterprises are dangerously polluted by the motile forms of Ni, Cu and Zn.
The impact of H2S emissions on future geothermal power generation - The Geysers region, California
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Leibowitz, L. P.
1977-01-01
The future potential for geothermal power generation in the Geysers region of California is as much as 10 times the current 502 MW(e) capacity. However, environmental factors such as H2S emissions and institutional considerations may play the primary role in determining the rate and ultimate level of development. In this paper a scenario of future geothermal generation capacity and H2S emissions in the Geysers region is presented. Problem areas associated with H2S emissions, H2S abatement processes, plant operations, and government agency resources are described. The impact of H2S emissions on future development and the views of effected organizations are discussed. Potential actions needed to remove these constraints are summarized.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Z.; Shiklomanov, N. I.
2015-12-01
Urbanization and industrial development have significant impacts on arctic climate that in turn controls settlement patterns and socio-economic processes. In this study we have analyzed the anthropogenic influences on regional land surface temperature of Lower Yenisei River Region of the Russia Arctic. The study area covers two consecutive Landsat scenes and includes three major cities: Norilsk, Igarka and Dudingka. Norilsk industrial region is the largest producer of nickel and palladium in the world, and Igarka and Dudingka are important ports for shipping. We constructed a spatio-temporal interpolated temperature model by including 1km MODIS LST, field-measured climate, Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), DEM, Landsat NDVI and Landsat Land Cover. Those fore-mentioned spatial data have various resolution and coverage in both time and space. We analyzed their relationships and created a monthly spatio-temporal interpolated surface temperature model at 1km resolution from 1980 to 2010. The temperature model then was used to examine the characteristic seasonal LST signatures, related to several representative assemblages of Arctic urban and industrial infrastructure in order to quantify anthropogenic influence on regional surface temperature.
Global and Regional Impacts of HONO on the Chemical Composition of Clouds and Aerosols
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Elshorbany, Y. F.; Crutzen, P. J.; Steil, B.; Pozzer, A.; Tost, H.; Lelieveld, J.
2014-01-01
Recently, realistic simulation of nitrous acid (HONO) based on the HONO / NOx ratio of 0.02 was found to have a significant impact on the global budgets of HOx (OH + HO2) and gas phase oxidation products in polluted regions, especially in winter when other photolytic sources are of minor importance. It has been reported that chemistry-transport models underestimate sulphate concentrations, mostly during winter. Here we show that simulating realistic HONO levels can significantly enhance aerosol sulphate (S(VI)) due to the increased formation of H2SO4. Even though in-cloud aqueous phase oxidation of dissolved SO2 (S(IV)) is the main source of S(VI), it appears that HONO related enhancement of H2O2 does not significantly affect sulphate because of the predominantly S(IV) limited conditions, except over eastern Asia. Nitrate is also increased via enhanced gaseous HNO3 formation and N2O5 hydrolysis on aerosol particles. Ammonium nitrate is enhanced in ammonia-rich regions but not under ammonia-limited conditions. Furthermore, particle number concentrations are also higher, accompanied by the transfer from hydrophobic to hydrophilic aerosol modes. This implies a significant impact on the particle lifetime and cloud nucleating properties. The HONO induced enhancements of all species studied are relatively strong in winter though negligible in summer. Simulating realistic HONO levels is found to improve the model measurement agreement of sulphate aerosols, most apparent over the US. Our results underscore the importance of HONO for the atmospheric oxidizing capacity and corroborate the central role of cloud chemical processing in S(IV) formation
Impact of Biomass Burning Aerosols on Cloud Formation in Coastal Regions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nair, U. S.; Wu, Y.; Reid, J. S.
2017-12-01
In the tropics, shallow and deep convective cloud structures organize in hierarchy of spatial scales ranging from meso-gamma (2-20 km) to planetary scales (40,000km). At the lower end of the spectrum is shallow convection over the open ocean, whose upscale growth is dependent upon mesoscale convergence triggers. In this context, cloud systems associated with land breezes that propagate long distances into open ocean areas are important. We utilized numerical model simulations to examine the impact of biomass burning on such cloud systems in the maritime continent, specifically along the coastal regions of Sarawak. Numerical model simulations conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model show spatial patterns of smoke that show good agreement to satellite observations. Analysis of model simulations show that, during daytime the horizontal convective rolls (HCRs) that form over land play an important role in organizing transport of smoke in the coastal regions. Alternating patterns of low and high smoke concentrations that are well correlated to the wavelengths of HCRs are found in both the simulations and satellite observations. During night time, smoke transport is modulated by the land breeze circulation and a band of enhanced smoke concentration is found along the land breeze front. Biomass burning aerosols are ingested by the convective clouds that form along the land breeze and leads to changes in total water path, cloud structure and precipitation formation.
Energy-Water-Land-Climate Nexus: Modeling Impacts from the Asset to Regional Scale
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tidwell, V. C.; Bennett, K. E.; Middleton, R. S.; Behery, S.; Macknick, J.; Corning-Padilla, A.; Brinkman, G.; Meng, M.
2016-12-01
A critical challenge for the energy-water-land nexus is understanding and modeling the connection between the natural system—including changes in climate, land use/cover, and streamflow—and the engineered system including water for energy, agriculture, and society. Equally important is understanding the linkage across scales; that is, how impacts at the asset level aggregate to influence behavior at the local to regional scale. Toward this need, a case study was conducted featuring multi-sector and multi-scale modeling centered on the San Juan River basin (a watershed that accounts for one-tenth of the Colorado River drainage area). Simulations were driven by statistically downscaled climate data from three global climate models (emission scenario RCP 8.5) and planned growth in regional water demand. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model was fitted with a custom vegetation mortality sub-model and used to estimate tributary inflows to the San Juan River and estimate reservoir evaporation. San Juan River operations, including releases from Navajo Reservoir, were subsequently modeled using RiverWare to estimate impacts on water deliveries out to the year 2100. Major water demands included two large coal-fired power plants, a local electric utility, river-side irrigation, the Navajo Indian Irrigation Project and instream flows managed for endangered aquatic species. Also tracked were basin exports, including water (downstream flows to the Colorado River and interbasin transfers to the Rio Grande) and interstate electric power transmission. Implications for the larger western electric grid were assessed using PLEXOS, a sub-hourly dispatch, electric production-cost model. Results highlight asset-level interactions at the energy-water-land nexus driven by climate and population dynamics; specifically, growing vulnerabilities to shorted water deliveries. Analyses also explored linkages across geographic scales from the San Juan to the larger
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Gonalez, Jorge E.; Comarazamy, Daniel E.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Smith, T.
2010-01-01
The overachieving goal of this project is to gain a better understanding of the climate impacts caused by the combined effects of land cover and land use (LCLU) changes and increasing global concentrations of green house gases (GHG) in tropical coastal areas, regions where global, regional and local climate phenomena converge, taking as the test case the densely populated northeast region of the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico. The research uses an integrated approach of high-resolution remote sensing information linked to a high resolution Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), which was employed to perform ensembles of climate simulations (combining 2-LCLU and 2-GHG concentration scenarios). Reconstructed agricultural maps are used to define past LCLU, and combined with reconstructed sea surface temperatures (SST) for the same period form the PAST climate scenario (1951-1956); while the PRESENT scenario (2000-2004) was additionally supported by high resolution remote sensing data (10-m-res). The climate reconstruction approach is validated with available observed climate data from surface weather stations for both periods of time simulated. The selection of the past and present climate scenarios considers large-scale biases (i.e. ENSO/NAO) as reflected in the region of interest. Direct and cross comparison of the results is allowing quantifying single, combined, and competitive effects. Results indicate that global GHG have dominant effects on minimum temperatures (following regional tendencies), while urban sprawl dominates maximum temperatures. To further investigate impacts of land use the Bowen Ratio and the thermal response number (TRN) are analyzed. The Bowen ratio indicates that forestation of past agricultural high areas have an overwhelmingly mitigation effect on increasing temperatures observed in different LCLU scenarios, but when abandoned agricultural lands are located in plains, the resulting shrub/grass lands produce higher surface
Climatic Consequences and Agricultural Impact of Regional Nuclear Conflict
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Robock, Alan; Mills, Michael; Toon, Owen Brian; Xia, Lili
2013-04-01
A nuclear war between India and Pakistan, with each country using 50 Hiroshima-sized atom bombs as airbursts on urban areas, would inject smoke from the resulting fires into the stratosphere. This could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and global-scale ozone depletion, with enhanced ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the surface. Simulations with the NCAR Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), run at higher vertical and horizontal resolution than a previous simulation with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE, and incorporating ozone chemistry for the first time, show a longer stratospheric residence time for smoke and hence a longer-lasting climate response, with global average surface air temperatures still 1.1 K below normal and global average precipitation 4% below normal after a decade. The erythemal dose from the enhanced UV radiation would greatly increase, in spite of enhanced absorption by the remaining smoke, with the UV index more than 3 units higher in the summer midlatitudes, even after a decade. Scenarios of changes in temperature, precipitation, and downward shortwave radiation from the ModelE and WACCM simulations, applied to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model for winter wheat, rice, soybeans, and maize by perturbing observed time series with anomalies from the regional nuclear war simulations, produce decreases of 10-50% in yield averaged over a decade, with larger decreases in the first several years, over several regions in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The impact of the nuclear war simulated here, using much less than 1% of the global nuclear arsenal, would be devastating to world agricultural production and trade, possibly sentencing a billion people now living marginal existences to starvation. The continued environmental threat of the use of even a small number of nuclear weapons must be considered in nuclear policy deliberations in Russia
Aguirre, José A; Märzendorfer, Olivia; Brada, Muriel; Saporito, Andrea; Borgeat, Alain; Bühler, Philipp
2016-12-01
Beach chair position is considered a potential risk factor for central neurological events particularly if combined with low blood pressure. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of regional anesthesia on cerebral blood flow and neurobehavioral outcome. This is a prospective, assessor-blinded observational study evaluating patients in the beach chair position undergoing shoulder surgery under regional anesthesia. University hospital operating room. Forty patients with American Society of Anesthesiologists classes I-II physical status scheduled for elective shoulder surgery. Cerebral saturation and blood flow of the middle cerebral artery were measured prior to anesthesia and continued after beach chair positioning until discharge to the postanesthesia care unit. The anesthesiologist was blinded for these values. Controlled hypotension with systolic blood pressure≤100mm Hg was maintained during surgery. Neurobehavioral tests and values of regional cerebral saturation, bispectral index, the mean maximal blood flow of the middle cerebral artery, and invasive blood pressure were measured prior to regional anesthesia, and measurements were repeated after placement of the patient on the beach chair position and every 20 minutes thereafter until discharge to postanesthesia care unit. The neurobehavioral tests were repeated the day after surgery. The incidence of cerebral desaturation events was 5%. All patients had a significant blood pressure drop 5 minutes after beach chair positioning, measured at the heart as well as the acoustic meatus levels, when compared with baseline values (P<.05). There was no decrease in either the regional cerebral saturation (P=.136) or the maximal blood flow of the middle cerebral artery (P=.212) at the same time points. Some neurocognitive tests showed an impairment 24 hours after surgery (P<.001 for 2 of 3 tests). Beach chair position in patients undergoing regional anesthesia for shoulder surgery had no major impact on
Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Thermodynamic Profiles on Regional Weather Forecasting
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Jedlovee, Gary J.
2010-01-01
In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles with accuracy comparable to that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model using its three-dimension variational (3DVAR) analysis component (WRF-Var). Quality indicators are used to select only the highest quality temperature and moisture profiles for assimilation in both clear and partly cloudy regions. Separate error characteristics for land and water profiles are also used in the assimilation process. Assimilation results indicate that AIRS profiles produce an analysis closer to in situ observations than the background field. Forecasts from a 37-day case study period in the winter of 2007 show that AIRS profile data can lead to improvements in 6-h cumulative precipitation forecasts due to instability added in the forecast soundings by the AIRS profiles. Additionally, in a convective heavy rainfall event from February 2007, assimilation of AIRS profiles produces a more unstable boundary layer resulting in enhanced updrafts in the model. These updrafts produce a squall line and precipitation totals that more closely reflect ground-based observations than a no AIRS control forecast. The location of available high-quality AIRS profiles ahead of approaching storm systems is found to be of paramount importance to the amount of impact the observations will have on the resulting forecasts.
Regional Impacts of Climate Change on the Amazon Rainforest: 2080-2100
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cook, K. H.; Vizy, E. K.
2006-12-01
A regional climate model with resolution of 60 km is coupled with a potential vegetation model to simulate future climate over South America. The following steps are taken to effectively communicate the results across disciplines and to make them useful to the policy and impacts communities: the simulation is aimed at a particular time period (2081-2100), the climate change results are translated into changes in vegetation distribution, and the results are reported on regional space scales relative to political boundaries. In addition, the model validation in clearly presented to provide perspective on uncertainty for the prognosis. The model reproduces today's climate and vegetation over tropical and subtropical South America accurately. In simulations of the future, the model is forced by the IPCC's A2 scenario of future emissions, which assumes that CO2 emissions continue to grow at essentially today's rate throughout the 21st century, reaching 757 ppmv averaged over 2081-2100. The model is constrained on its lateral boundaries by atmospheric conditions simulated by a global climate model, applied as anomalies to present day conditions, and predicted changes in sea surface temperatures. The extent of the Amazon rainforest is reduced by about 70 per cent in the simulation, and the shrubland (caatinga) vegetation of Brazil's Nordeste region spreads westward and southward well into the continental interior. Bolivia, Paraguay, and Argentina lose all of their rainforest vegetation, and Brazil and Peru lose most of it. The surviving rain forest is concentrated near the equator. Columbia's rainforest survives largely intact and, along the northern coast, Venezuela and French Guiana suffer relatively small reductions. The loss in Guyana and Surinam is 30-50 per cent. Much of the rainforest in the central Amazon north of about 15S is replaced by savanna vegetation, but in southern Bolivia, northern Paraguay, and southern Brazil, grasslands take the place of the
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Unnikrishnan, C. K.; Rajeevan, M.; Rao, S. Vijaya Bhaskara
2016-06-01
The direct impact of high resolution land surface initialization on the forecast bias in a regional climate model in recent years over Indian summer monsoon region is investigated. Two sets of regional climate model simulations are performed, one with a coarse resolution land surface initial conditions and second one used a high resolution land surface data for initial condition. The results show that all monsoon years respond differently to the high resolution land surface initialization. The drought monsoon year 2009 and extended break periods were more sensitive to the high resolution land surface initialization. These results suggest that the drought monsoon year predictions can be improved with high resolution land surface initialization. Result also shows that there are differences in the response to the land surface initialization within the monsoon season. Case studies of heat wave and a monsoon depression simulation show that, the model biases were also improved with high resolution land surface initialization. These results show the need for a better land surface initialization strategy in high resolution regional models for monsoon forecasting.
Simulating Dust Regional Impact on the Middle East Climate and the Red Sea
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Osipov, Sergey; Stenchikov, Georgiy
2017-04-01
Dust is one of the most abundant aerosols, however, currently only a few regional climate downscalings account for dust. This study focuses on the Middle East and the Red Sea regional climate response to the dust aerosol radiative forcing. The Red Sea is located between North Africa and Arabian Peninsula, which are first and third largest source regions of dust, respectively. MODIS and SEVIRI satellite observations show extremely high dust optical depths in the region, especially over the southern Red Sea during the summer season. The significant north-to-south gradient of the dust optical depth over the Red Sea persists throughout the entire year. Modeled atmospheric radiative forcing at the surface, top of the atmosphere and absorption in the atmospheric column indicate that dust significantly perturbs radiative balance. Top of the atmosphere modeled forcing is validated against independently derived GERB satellite product. Due to strong radiative forcing at the sea surface (daily mean forcing during summer reaches -32 Wm-2 and 10 Wm-2 in SW and LW, respectively), using uncoupled ocean model with prescribed atmospheric boundary conditions would result in an unrealistic ocean response. Therefore, here we employ the Regional Ocean Modeling system (ROMS) fully coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to study the impact of dust on the Red Sea thermal regime and circulation. The WRF was modified to interactively account for the radiative effect of dust. Daily spectral optical properties of dust are computed using Mie, T-matrix, and geometric optics approaches, and are based on the SEVIRI climatological optical depth. The WRF model parent and nested domains are configured over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and over the Red Sea with 30 and 10 km resolution, respectively. The ROMS model over the Red Sea has 2 km grid spacing. The simulations show that, in the equilibrium response, dust causes 0.3-0.5 K cooling of the Red Sea surface
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hogrefe, Christian; Liu, Peng; Pouliot, George; Mathur, Rohit; Roselle, Shawn; Flemming, Johannes; Lin, Meiyun; Park, Rokjin J.
2018-03-01
This study analyzes simulated regional-scale ozone burdens both near the surface and aloft, estimates process contributions to these burdens, and calculates the sensitivity of the simulated regional-scale ozone burden to several key model inputs with a particular emphasis on boundary conditions derived from hemispheric or global-scale models. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations supporting this analysis were performed over the continental US for the year 2010 within the context of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) and Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP) activities. CMAQ process analysis (PA) results highlight the dominant role of horizontal and vertical advection on the ozone burden in the mid-to-upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Vertical mixing, including mixing by convective clouds, couples fluctuations in free-tropospheric ozone to ozone in lower layers. Hypothetical bounding scenarios were performed to quantify the effects of emissions, boundary conditions, and ozone dry deposition on the simulated ozone burden. Analysis of these simulations confirms that the characterization of ozone outside the regional-scale modeling domain can have a profound impact on simulated regional-scale ozone. This was further investigated by using data from four hemispheric or global modeling systems (Chemistry - Integrated Forecasting Model (C-IFS), CMAQ extended for hemispheric applications (H-CMAQ), the Goddard Earth Observing System model coupled to chemistry (GEOS-Chem), and AM3) to derive alternate boundary conditions for the regional-scale CMAQ simulations. The regional-scale CMAQ simulations using these four different boundary conditions showed that the largest ozone abundance in the upper layers was simulated when using boundary conditions from GEOS-Chem, followed by the simulations using C-IFS, AM3, and H-CMAQ boundary conditions, consistent with the analysis of the ozone fields
Adverse child health impacts resulting from food adulterations in the Greater China Region.
Li, Wai Chin; Chow, Chin Fung
2017-09-01
Food adulteration has a long history in human society, and it still occurs in modern times. Because children are relatively vulnerable to food adulterants, studying the health impacts of food adulteration on children is important. This article provides an overview of the child health impacts of food adulterants in two recent food adulteration incidents in the Greater China Region: (1) a plasticizer incident in Taiwan and (2) a 2,4,6-triamino-1,3,5-triazine (melamine)-tainted milk incident in China. The involved food adulterants, di-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), diisononyl phthalate (DiNP) and melamine, are harmful to the hippocampus, kidneys, reproductive organs and immune system of children, and they also increase the risk of cancer. To detect food adulteration and to avoid further harm caused by food adulteration, simple screening methods have been developed, and they have recently emerged as a new focus area for research. This article also summarizes the simple screening methods used to analyse the aforementioned food adulterants and reports how governments reacted to the recent food incidents. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.
Impacts of flare emissions from an ethylene plant shutdown to regional air quality
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Ziyuan; Wang, Sujing; Xu, Qiang; Ho, Thomas
2016-08-01
Critical operations of chemical process industry (CPI) plants such as ethylene plant shutdowns could emit a huge amount of VOCs and NOx, which may result in localized and transient ozone pollution events. In this paper, a general methodology for studying dynamic ozone impacts associated with flare emissions from ethylene plant shutdowns has been developed. This multi-scale simulation study integrates process knowledge of plant shutdown emissions in terms of flow rate and speciation together with regional air-quality modeling to quantitatively investigate the sensitivity of ground-level ozone change due to an ethylene plant shutdown. The study shows the maximum hourly ozone increments can vary significantly by different plant locations and temporal factors including background ozone data and solar radiation intensity. It helps provide a cost-effective air-quality control strategy for industries by choosing the optimal starting time of plant shutdown operations in terms of minimizing the induced ozone impact (reduced from 34.1 ppb to 1.2 ppb in the performed case studies). This study provides valuable technical supports for both CPI and environmental policy makers on cost-effective air-quality controls in the future.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tuluri, F.
2013-12-01
The realization of long term changes in climate in research community has to go beyond the comfort zone through climate literacy in academics. Higher education on climate change is the platform to bring together the otherwise disconnected factors such as effective discovery, decision making, innovation, interdisciplinary collaboration, Climate change is a complex process that may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system, or to variations in natural or anthropogenic (human-driven) external forcing. Global climate change indicates a change in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for several decades or longer. This includes changes in average weather conditions on Earth, such as a change in average global temperature, as well as changes in how frequently regions experience heat waves, droughts, floods, storms, and other extreme weather. It is important to examine the effects of climate variations on human health and disorders in order to take preventive measures. Similarly, the influence of climate changes on animal management practices, pests and pest management systems, and high value crops such as citrus and vegetables is also equally important for investigation. New genetic agricultural varieties must be explored, and pilot studies should examine biotechnology transfer. Recent climate model improvements have resulted in an enhanced ability to simulate many aspects of climate variability and extremes. However, they are still characterized by systematic errors and limitations in accurately simulating more precisely regional climate conditions. The present situations warrant developing climate literacy on the synergistic impacts of environmental change, and improve development, testing and validation of integrated stress impacts through computer modeling. In the present study we present a detailed study of the current status on the impacts of global/regional climate changes on environment and health with a view
The Technological Impact of the E-Rate Program on a School District of the Texas Coastal Bend Region
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Vazquez-Cruz, Juan Diego
2012-01-01
The purpose of the study was to examine the impact of the E-Rate program on students, teachers, administrators, and the technology environment of a public school district in the Texas Gulf Coast Region. The study was conducted through a mixed methods design, utilizing both quantitative and qualitative data collection; the research design was a…
Impact of CYGNSS Data on Tropical Cyclone Analyses and Forecasts in a Regional OSSE Framework
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Annane, B.; McNoldy, B. D.; Leidner, S. M.; Atlas, R. M.; Hoffman, R.; Majumdar, S.
2016-12-01
The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, is a planned constellation of micro-satellites that will utilize reflected Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite signals to retrieve ocean surface wind speed along the satellites' ground tracks. The orbits are designed so that there is excellent coverage of the tropics and subtropics, resulting in more thorough spatial sampling and improved sampling intervals over tropical cyclones than is possible with current spaceborne scatterometer and passive microwave sensor platforms. Furthermore, CYGNSS will be able to retrieve winds under all precipitating conditions, and over a large range of wind speeds.A regional Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework was developed at NOAA/AOML and University of Miami that features a high-resolution regional nature run (27-km regional domain with 9/3/1 km storm-following nests; Nolan et al., 2013) embedded within a lower-resolution global nature run . Simulated observations are generated by sampling from the nature run and are provided to a data assimilation scheme, which produces analyses for a high-resolution regional forecast model, the 2014 operational Hurricane-WRF model. For data assimilation, NOAA's GSI and EnKF systems are used. Analyses are performed on the parent domain at 9-km resolution. The forecast model uses a single storm-following 3-km resolution nest. Synthetic CYGNSS wind speed data have also been created, and the impacts of the assimilation of these data on the forecasts of tropical cyclone track and intensity will be discussed.In addition to the choice of assimilation scheme, we have also examined a number of other factors/parameters that effect the impact of simulated CYGNSS observations, including frequency of data assimilation cycling (e.g., hourly, 3-hourly and 6-hourly) and the assimilation of scalar versus vector synthetic CYGNSS winds.We have found sensitivity to all of the factors tested and will summarize the methods used for
Recent regional climate cooling on the Antarctic Peninsula and associated impacts on the cryosphere.
Oliva, M; Navarro, F; Hrbáček, F; Hernández, A; Nývlt, D; Pereira, P; Ruiz-Fernández, J; Trigo, R
2017-02-15
The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) is often described as a region with one of the largest warming trends on Earth since the 1950s, based on the temperature trend of 0.54°C/decade during 1951-2011 recorded at Faraday/Vernadsky station. Accordingly, most works describing the evolution of the natural systems in the AP region cite this extreme trend as the underlying cause of their observed changes. However, a recent analysis (Turner et al., 2016) has shown that the regionally stacked temperature record for the last three decades has shifted from a warming trend of 0.32°C/decade during 1979-1997 to a cooling trend of -0.47°C/decade during 1999-2014. While that study focuses on the period 1979-2014, averaging the data over the entire AP region, we here update and re-assess the spatially-distributed temperature trends and inter-decadal variability from 1950 to 2015, using data from ten stations distributed across the AP region. We show that Faraday/Vernadsky warming trend is an extreme case, circa twice those of the long-term records from other parts of the northern AP. Our results also indicate that the cooling initiated in 1998/1999 has been most significant in the N and NE of the AP and the South Shetland Islands (>0.5°C between the two last decades), modest in the Orkney Islands, and absent in the SW of the AP. This recent cooling has already impacted the cryosphere in the northern AP, including slow-down of glacier recession, a shift to surface mass gains of the peripheral glacier and a thinning of the active layer of permafrost in northern AP islands. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Regional Modeling and Power Spectra of Mercury's Crustal Magnetic Field
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Plattner, A. M.; Johnson, C. L.
2018-05-01
Mercury's crustal magnetic field and magnetic power spectra for select regions show distinct patterns for regions without magnetized impact craters, regions with magnetized impact craters, and the region north of Caloris.
Dennis Haddow; Robert Musselman; Tamara Blett; Richard Fisher
1998-01-01
This document is the product of an ongoing effort begun at a 4-day workshop sponsored by the Rocky Mountain Region of the USDA Forest Service, held in December 1990 in Estes Park, Colorado. Workshop participants gathered in groups to work on pollution impacts in three specific areas: aquatic ecosystems; terrestrial ecosystems; and visibility. Because the groups met...
Catherine, Arnaud; Mouillot, David; Maloufi, Selma; Troussellier, Marc; Bernard, Cécile
2013-01-01
As the human population grows, the demand for living space and supplies of resources also increases, which may induce rapid change in land-use/land-cover (LULC) and associated pressures exerted on aquatic habitats. We propose a new approach to forecast the impact of regional land cover change and water management policies (i.e., targets in nutrient loads reduction) on lake and reservoir water eutrophication status using a model that requires minimal parameterisation compared with alternative methods. This approach was applied to a set of 48 periurban lakes located in the Ile de France region (IDF, France) to simulate catchment-scale management scenarios. Model outputs were subsequently compared to governmental agencies' 2030 forecasts. Our model indicated that the efforts made to reduce pressure in the catchment of seepage lakes might be expected to be proportional to the gain that might be obtained, whereas drainage lakes will display little improvement until a critical level of pressure reduction is reached. The model also indicated that remediation measures, as currently planned by governmental agencies, might only have a marginal impact on improving the eutrophication status of lakes and reservoirs within the IDF region. Despite the commitment to appropriately managing the water resources in many countries, prospective tools to evaluate the potential impacts of global change on freshwater ecosystems integrity at medium to large spatial scales are lacking. This study proposes a new approach to investigate the impact of region-scale human-driven changes on lake and reservoir ecological status and could be implemented elsewhere with limited parameterisation. Issues are discussed that relate to model uncertainty and to its relevance as a tool applied to decision-making.
Catherine, Arnaud; Mouillot, David; Maloufi, Selma; Troussellier, Marc; Bernard, Cécile
2013-01-01
As the human population grows, the demand for living space and supplies of resources also increases, which may induce rapid change in land-use/land-cover (LULC) and associated pressures exerted on aquatic habitats. We propose a new approach to forecast the impact of regional land cover change and water management policies (i.e., targets in nutrient loads reduction) on lake and reservoir water eutrophication status using a model that requires minimal parameterisation compared with alternative methods. This approach was applied to a set of 48 periurban lakes located in the Ile de France region (IDF, France) to simulate catchment-scale management scenarios. Model outputs were subsequently compared to governmental agencies’ 2030 forecasts. Our model indicated that the efforts made to reduce pressure in the catchment of seepage lakes might be expected to be proportional to the gain that might be obtained, whereas drainage lakes will display little improvement until a critical level of pressure reduction is reached. The model also indicated that remediation measures, as currently planned by governmental agencies, might only have a marginal impact on improving the eutrophication status of lakes and reservoirs within the IDF region. Despite the commitment to appropriately managing the water resources in many countries, prospective tools to evaluate the potential impacts of global change on freshwater ecosystems integrity at medium to large spatial scales are lacking. This study proposes a new approach to investigate the impact of region-scale human-driven changes on lake and reservoir ecological status and could be implemented elsewhere with limited parameterisation. Issues are discussed that relate to model uncertainty and to its relevance as a tool applied to decision-making. PMID:23991066
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A. P.; Liu, P.; Tsigaridis, Konstantinos; Hu, Y.; Nenes, A.; Stone, B.; Russell, A. G.
2013-01-01
The impact of future land use and land cover changes (LULCC) on regional and global climate is one of the most challenging aspects of understanding anthropogenic climate change. We study the impacts of LULCC on regional climate in the southeastern U.S. by downscaling the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model E to the regional scale using a spectral nudging technique with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Climate-relevant meteorological fields are compared for two southeastern U.S. LULCC scenarios to the current land use/cover for four seasons of the year 2050. In this work it is shown that reforestation of cropland in the southeastern U.S. tends to warm surface air by up to 0.5 K, while replacing forested land with cropland tends to cool the surface air by 0.5 K. Processes leading to this response are investigated and sensitivity analyses conducted. The sensitivity analysis shows that results are most sensitive to changes in albedo and the stomatal resistance. Evaporative cooling of croplands also plays an important role in regional climate. Implications of LULCC on air quality are discussed. Summertime warming associated with reforestation of croplands could increase the production of some secondary pollutants, while a higher boundary layer will decrease pollutant concentrations; wintertime warming may decrease emissions from biomass burning from wood stoves
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huang, M.
2016-12-01
Earth System models (ESMs) are effective tools for investigating the water-energy-food system interactions under climate change. In this presentation, I will introduce research efforts at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory towards quantifying impacts of LULCC on the water-energy-food nexus in a changing climate using an integrated regional Earth system modeling framework: the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA). Two studies will be discussed to showcase the capability of PRIMA: (1) quantifying changes in terrestrial hydrology over the Conterminous US (CONUS) from 2005 to 2095 using the Community Land Model (CLM) driven by high-resolution downscaled climate and land cover products from PRIMA, which was designed for assessing the impacts of and potential responses to climate and anthropogenic changes at regional scales; (2) applying CLM over the CONUS to provide the first county-scale model validation in simulating crop yields and assessing associated impacts on the water and energy budgets using CLM. The studies demonstrate the benefits of incorporating and coupling human activities into complex ESMs, and critical needs to account for the biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of LULCC in climate impacts studies, and in designing mitigation and adaptation strategies at a scale meaningful for decision-making. Future directions in quantifying LULCC impacts on the water-energy-food nexus under a changing climate, as well as feedbacks among climate, energy production and consumption, and natural/managed ecosystems using an Integrated Multi-scale, Multi-sector Modeling framework will also be discussed.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Brantley, S.; Brazil, L.
2017-12-01
The Shale Network's extensive database of water quality observations enables educational experiences about the potential impacts of resource extraction with real data. Through tools that are open source and free to use, researchers, educators, and citizens can access and analyze the very same data that the Shale Network team has used in peer-reviewed publications about the potential impacts of hydraulic fracturing on water. The development of the Shale Network database has been made possible through efforts led by an academic team and involving numerous individuals from government agencies, citizen science organizations, and private industry. Thus far, these tools and data have been used to engage high school students, university undergraduate and graduate students, as well as citizens so that all can discover how energy production impacts the Marcellus Shale region, which includes Pennsylvania and other nearby states. This presentation will describe these data tools, how the Shale Network has used them in developing lesson plans, and the resources available to learn more.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andy
2010-05-01
Climate variability is an important component in determining the incidence of a number of diseases with significant human/animal health and socioeconomic impacts. The most important diseases affecting health are vector-borne, such as malaria, Rift Valley Fever and including those that are tick borne, with over 3 billion of the world population at risk. Malaria alone is responsible for at least one million deaths annually, with 80% of malaria deaths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa. The climate has a large impact upon the incidence of vector-borne diseases; directly via the development rates and survival of both the pathogen and the vector, and indirectly through changes in the environmental conditions. A large ensemble of regional climate model simulations has been produced within the ENSEMBLES project framework for both the European and African continent. This work will present recent progress in human and animal disease modelling, based on high resolution climate observations and regional climate simulations. Preliminary results will be given as an illustration, including the impact of climate change upon bluetongue (disease affecting the cattle) over Europe and upon malaria and Rift Valley Fever over Africa. Malaria scenarios based on RCM ensemble simulations have been produced for West Africa. These simulations have been carried out using the Liverpool Malaria Model. Future projections highlight that the malaria incidence decreases at the northern edge of the Sahel and that the epidemic belt is shifted southward in autumn. This could lead to significant public health problems in the future as the demography is expected to dramatically rise over Africa for the 21st century.
Global and Regional Impacts of HONO on the Chemical Composition of Clouds and Aerosols
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Elshorbany, Y. F.; Crutzen, P. J.; Steil, B.; Pozzer, A.; Tost, H.; Lelieveld, J.
2014-01-01
Recently, realistic simulation of nitrous acid (HONO) based on the HONO/NO(sub x) ratio of 0.02 was found to have a significant impact on the global budgets of HO(sub x) (OH + HO2) and gas phase oxidation products in polluted regions, especially in winter when other photolytic sources are of minor importance. It has been reported that chemistry-transport models underestimate sulphate concentrations, mostly during winter. Here we show that simulating realistic HONO levels can significantly enhance aerosol sulphate (S(VI)) due to the increased formation of H2SO4. Even though in-cloud aqueous phase oxidation of dissolved SO2 (S(IV)) is the main source of S(VI), it appears that HONO related enhancement of H2O2 does not significantly affect sulphate because of the predominantly S(IV) limited conditions, except over eastern Asia. Nitrate is also increased via enhanced gaseous HNO3 formation and N2O5 hydrolysis on aerosol particles. Ammonium nitrate is enhanced in ammonia-rich regions but not under ammonia-limited conditions. Furthermore, particle number concentrations are also higher, accompanied by the transfer from hydrophobic to hydrophilic aerosol modes. This implies a significant impact on the particle lifetime and cloud nucleating properties. The HONO induced enhancements of all species studied are relatively strong in winter though negligible in summer. Simulating realistic HONO levels is found to improve the model measurement agreement of sulphate aerosols, most apparent over the US. Our results underscore the importance of HONO for the atmospheric oxidizing capacity and corroborate the central role of cloud chemical processing in S(IV) formation.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Yu, Hongbin
2011-01-01
Mounting evidence for intercontinental transport of aerosols suggests that aerosols from a region could significantly affect climate and air quality in downwind regions and continents. Current assessment of these impacts for the most part has been based on global model simulations that show large variability. The aerosol intercontinental transport and its influence on air quality and climate involve many processes at local, regional, and intercontinental scales. There is a pressing need to establish modeling systems that bridge the wide range of scales. The modeling systems need to be evaluated and constrained by observations, including satellite measurements. Columnar loadings of dust and combustion aerosols can be derived from the MODIS and MISR measurements of total aerosol optical depth and particle size and shape information. Characteristic transport heights of dust and combustion aerosols can be determined from the CALIPSO lidar and AIRS measurements. CALIPSO liar and OMI UV technique also have a unique capability of detecting aerosols above clouds, which could offer some insights into aerosol lofting processes and the importance of above-cloud transport pathway. In this presentation, I will discuss our efforts of integrating these satellite measurements and models to assess the significance of intercontinental transport of dust and combustion aerosols on regional air quality and climate.
Mäenpää, Tiina; Asikainen, Paula; Gissler, Mika; Siponen, Kimmo; Maass, Marianne; Saranto, Kaija; Suominen, Tarja
2012-01-01
Interest in improving quality and effectiveness is the primary driver for health information exchange efforts across a health care system to improve the provision of public health care services. The aim here was to describe and identify the impact of a regional health information exchange (HIE) using quantitative statistics for 2004-2008 in one hospital district in Finland. We conducted a comparative, longitudinal 5-year follow-up study to evaluate the utilization rates of HIE, and the impact on health care delivery outcomes. The selected outcomes were total laboratory tests, radiology examinations, appointments, emergency visits, and referrals. The HIE utilization rates increased annually in all 10 federations of municipalities, and the viewing of reference information increased steadily in each professional group over the 5-year study period. In these federations, a significant connection was found to the number of laboratory tests and radiology examinations, with a statistically significant increase in the number of viewed references and use of HIE. The higher the numbers of emergency visits and appointments, the higher the numbers of emergency referrals to specialized care, viewed references, and HIE usage among the groups of different health care professionals. There is increasing interest in HIE usage through regional health information system among health professionals to improve health care delivery regionally and bring information on the patient directly to care delivery. It will be important to study which changes in working methods in the service system are explained by RHIS. Also, the experiences of the change that has taken place should be studied among the different stakeholders, administrative representatives, and patients.
Lee, E Henry; Beedlow, Peter A; Waschmann, Ronald S; Tingey, David T; Cline, Steven; Bollman, Michael; Wickham, Charlotte; Carlile, Cailie
2017-12-01
The fungal pathogen, Phaeocryptopus gaeumannii , causing Swiss needle cast (SNC) occurs wherever Douglas-fir is found but disease damage is believed to be limited in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) to the Coast Range of Oregon and Washington (Hansen et al., Plant Disease , 2000, 84 , 773; Rosso & Hansen, Phytopathology , 2003, 93 , 790; Shaw, et al., Journal of Forestry , 2011, 109 , 109). However, knowledge remains limited on the history and spatial distribution of SNC impacts in the PNW. We reconstructed the history of SNC impacts on mature Douglas-fir trees based on tree-ring width chronologies from western Oregon. Our findings show that SNC impacts on growth occur wherever Douglas-fir is found and is not limited to the coastal fog zone. The spatiotemporal patterns of growth impact from SNC disease were synchronous across the region, displayed periodicities of 12-40 years, and strongly correlated with winter and summer temperatures and summer precipitation. The primary climatic factor limiting pathogen dynamics varied spatially by location, topography, and elevation. SNC impacts were least severe in the first half of the 20th century when climatic conditions during the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (1924-1945) were less conducive to pathogen development. At low- to mid-elevations, SNC impacts were most severe in 1984-1986 following several decades of warmer winters and cooler, wetter summers including a high summer precipitation anomaly in 1983. At high elevations on the west slope of the Cascade Range, SNC impacts peaked several years later and were the greatest in the 1990s, a period of warmer winter temperatures. Climate change is predicted to result in warmer winters and will likely continue to increase SNC severity at higher elevations, north along the coast from northern Oregon to British Columbia, and inland where low winter temperatures currently limit growth of the pathogen. Our findings indicate that SNC may become a significant
Unplanned roads impacts assessment in Phewa Lake watershed, Western region, Nepal
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Leibundgut, Geoffroy; Sudmeier-Rieux, Karen; Devkota, Sanjaya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Penna, Ivanna; Adhikari, Anu; Khanal, Rajendra
2015-04-01
This work describes current research being conducted in the Phewa Lake watershed, near Pokhara in Nepal's Siwaliks/Middle hills, a moist sub-tropical zone with the highest amount of annual rainfall in Nepal (4,500 - 5,000 mm). The watershed lithology is mainly siltstone, sandstones and intensively weathered rocks, highly prone to erosion and shallow landslides (Agrawala et al., 2003). The main purpose of this study is to focus on the impact of unplanned earthen road construction in the Phewa Lake watershed as part of land use changes over 30 years in one of Nepal's most touristic regions. Over the past three decades, the road network has expanded exponentially and a majority of rural earthen roads are often funded by communities themselves, with some government subsidies. They are usually constructed using a local bulldozer contractor with no technical or geological expertise increasing erosion processes, slope instabilities risk and impacts to settlements, forests, water sources, agriculture lands, and infrastructure. Moreover, these human-induced phenomena are being compounded by increasingly intense monsoon rains, likely due to climate change (Petley, 2010). Research methods were interdisciplinary and based on a combination of remote sensing, field observations and discussions with community members. The study compared 30 year-old aerial photos with current high resolution satellite images to correlate changes in land use with erosion and slope instabilities. Secondly, most of the watershed's roads were surveyed in order to inventory and quantify slope instabilities and soil loss events. Using a failure-characteristics grid, their main features were measured (location, size, type and extension of damage areas, etc.) and a GIS data base was created. We then estimated economic impacts of these events in terms of agriculture lands losses and road maintenance, based on field observations and discussions with affected people. Field work investigations have shown that
Mechanisms of impact of greenhouse gases on the Earth's ozone layer in the Polar Regions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zadorozhny, Alexander; Dyominov, Igor
A numerical 2-D zonally averaged interactive dynamical radiative-photochemical model of the atmosphere including aerosol physics is used to examine the impact of the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, and N2O on the future long-term changes of the Earth's ozone layer, in particular on its expected recovery after reduction of anthropogenic discharges of chlorine and bromine compounds into the atmosphere. The model allows calculating self-consistently diabatic circu-lation, temperature, gaseous composition of the troposphere and stratosphere at latitudes from the North to South Poles, as well as distribution of sulphate aerosol particles and polar strato-spheric clouds (PSCs) of types I and II. The scenarios of expected changes of the anthropogenic pollutants for the period from 1980 through 2050 are taken from Climate Change 2001. The processes, which determine the influence of anthropogenic growth of atmospheric abun-dance of the greenhouse gases on the long-term changes of the Earth's ozone layer in the Polar Regions, have been studied in details. Expected cooling of the stratosphere caused by increases of greenhouse gases, most importantly CO2, essentially influences the ozone layer by two ways: through temperature dependencies of the gas phase reaction rates and through enhancement of polar ozone depletion via increased PSC formation. The model calculations show that a weak-ness in efficiencies of all gas phase catalytic cycles of the ozone destruction due to cooling of the stratosphere is a dominant mechanism of the impact of the greenhouse gases on the ozone layer in Antarctic as well as at the lower latitudes. This mechanism leads to a significant acceleration of the ozone layer recovery here because of the greenhouse gases growth. On the contrary, the mechanism of the impact of the greenhouse gases on the ozone through PSC modification be-gins to be more effective in Arctic in comparison with the gas phase mechanism in springs after about 2020, which leads to retard
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kirilenko, A.; Dronin, N.
2010-12-01
Water is the major factor, limiting agriculture of the five Former Soviet Union (FSU) of Central Asia. Elevated topography prevents moist and warm air from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans from entering the region.With exception of Kazakhstan, agriculture is generally restricted to oases and irrigated lands along the major rivers and canals. Availability of water for irrigation is the major factor constraining agriculture in the region, and conflicts over water are not infrequent. The current water crisis in the region is largely due to human activity; however the region is also strongly impacted by the climate. In multiple locations, planned and autonomous adaptations to climate change have already resulted in changes in agriculture, such as a dramatic increase in irrigation, or shift in crops towards the ones better suited for warmer and dryer climate; however, it is hard to differentiate between the effects of overall management improvement and the avoidance of climate-related losses. Climate change will contribute to water problems, escalating irrigation demand during the drought period, and increasing water loss with evaporation. The future of the countries of the Aral Sea basin then depends on both the regional scenario of water management policy and a global scenario of climate change, and is integrated with global socioeconomic scenarios. We formulate a set of regional policy scenarios (“Business as Usual”, “Falling Behind” and “Closing the Gap”) and demonstrate how each of them corresponds to IPCC SRES scenarios, the latter used as an input to the General Circulation Models (GCMs). Then we discuss the relative effectiveness of the introduced scenarios for mitigating water problems in the region, taking into account the adaptation through changing water demand for agriculture. Finally, we introduce the results of multimodel analysis of GCM climate projections, especially in relation to the change in precipitation and frequency of droughts, and
EPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) program is developing and testing approaches to conducting comparative environmental risk assessments at the regional scale, considering impacts to ecological human, and fiscal health endpoints. It seeks an objective and quantifiable...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lai, S. C.; Baker, A. R.; Schuck, T. J.; van Velthoven, P.; Oram, D. E.; Zahn, A.; Hermann, M.; Weigelt, A.; Slemr, S.; Brenninkmeijer, C. A. M.
2010-05-01
The research project CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrumented Container, phase II) is designed to conduct regular, long-term and detailed observations of the free troposphere and UT/LS regions where passenger aircraft happen to cruise. A fully-automated measurement container (1.5 tons) was equipped onboard an Airbus 340-600 operated by Lufthansa Airlines during regular passenger flights to conduct real time trace gas and aerosol measurements and to collect aerosol and air samples on a near monthly basis. During May 2005 - March 2008, CARIBIC observations have been performed along the flight tracks of Frankfurt-Guangzhou-Manila. Data have been collected in the upper troposphere during a total of 81 flights over the region between South China and the Philippines. Carbon monoxide was used an indicator to identify the pollution events and to access the regional impacts of fossil fuel burning and biomass/biofuel burning on upper tropospheric air. Five regions, i.e. Northeast Asia, South China, Indochina Peninsula, India and Indonesia/Philippines, are identified as the major source regions to be related to the observed pollution events. The characteristics of the events from these regions are investigated. The contributions of different source categories are also estimated.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lo, S. H.; Chen, C. T.
2017-12-01
Extreme heat waves have serious impacts on society. It was argued that the anthropogenic forcing might substantially increase the risk of extreme heat wave events (e.g. over western Europe in 2003 and over Russia in 2010). However, the regional dependence of such anthropogenic impact and the sensitivity of the attributed risk to the definition of heat wave still require further studies. In our research framework, the change in the frequency and severity of a heat wave event under current conditions is calculated and compared with the probability and magnitude of the event if the effects of particular external forcing, such as due to human influence, had been absent. In our research, we use the CAM5 large ensemble simulation from the CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project (http://portal.nersc.gov/c20c/main.html, Folland et al. 2014) to detect the heat wave events occurred in both historical all forcing run and natural forcing only run. The heat wave events are identified by partial duration series method (Huth et al., 2000). We test the sensitivity of heat wave thresholds from daily maximum temperature (Tmax) in warm season (from May to September) between 1959 and 2013. We consider the anthropogenic effect on the later period (2000-2013) when the warming due to human impact is more evident. Using Taiwan and surrounding area as our preliminary research target, We found the anthropogenic effect will increase the heat wave day per year from 30 days to 75 days and make the mean starting(ending) day for heat waves events about 15-30 days earlier(later). Using the Fraction of Attribution Risk analysis to estimate the risk of frequency of heat wave day, our results show the anthropogenic forcing very likely increase the heat wave days over Taiwan by more than 50%. Further regional differences and sensitivity of the attributed risk to the definition of heat wave will be compared and discussed.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hammac, W. A.; Pan, W.; Koenig, R. T.; McCracken, V.
2012-12-01
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has mandated through the second renewable fuel standard (RFS2) that biodiesel meet a minimum threshold requirement (50% reduction) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction compared to fossil diesel. This designation is determined by life cycle assessment (LCA) and carries with it potential for monetary incentives for biodiesel feedstock growers (Biomass Crop Assistance Program) and biodiesel processors (Renewable Identification Numbers). A national LCA was carried out for canola (Brassica napus) biodiesel feedstock by the EPA and it did meet the minimum threshold requirement. However, EPA's national LCA does not provide insight into regional variation in GHG mitigation. The authors propose for full GHG reduction potential of biofuels to be realized, LCA results must have regional specificity and should inform incentives for growers and processors on a regional basis. The objectives of this work were to determine (1) variation in biofuel feedstock production related GHG emissions between three agroecological zones (AEZs) in eastern Washington State (2) the impact of nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) on GHG mitigation potential for each AEZ and (3) the impact of incentives on adoption of oilseed production. Results from objective (1) revealed there is wide variability in range for GHG estimates both across and within AEZs based on variation in farming practices and environment. It is expected that results for objective (2) will show further GHG mitigation potential due to minimizing N use and therefore fertilizer transport and soil related GHG emission while potentially increasing biodiesel production per hectare. Regional based incentives may allow more timely achievement of goals for bio-based fuels production. Additionally, incentives may further increase GHG offsetting by promoting nitrogen conserving best management practices implementation. This research highlights the need for regional assessment/incentive based
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Biswas, Jhumoor; John, Kuruvilla; Farooqui, Zuber
The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report predicts significant temperature increases over the century which constitutes the pulse of climate variability in a region. A modeling study was performed to identify the potential impact of temperature perturbations on tropospheric ozone concentrations in South Texas. A future case modeling scenario which incorporates appropriate emission reduction strategies without accounting for climatic inconsistencies was used in this study. The photochemical modeling was undertaken for a high ozone episode of 13-20 September 1999, and a future modeling scenario was projected for ozone episode days in 2007 utilizing the meteorological conditions prevalent in the base year. The temperatures were increased uniformly throughout the simulation domain and through the vertical layers by 2°C, 3°C, 4°C, 5°C, and 6°C, respectively in the future year modeling case. These temperature perturbations represented the outcome of extreme climate change within the study region. Significantly large changes in peak ozone concentrations were predicted by the photochemical model. For the 6°C temperature perturbation, the greatest amplification in the maximum 8-h ozone concentrations within urban areas of the modeling domain was approximately 12 ppb. In addition, transboundary flux from major industrialized urban areas played a major role in supplementing the high ozone concentrations during the perturbed temperature scenarios. The Unites States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) is currently proposing stricter 8-h ozone standards. The effect of temperature perturbations on ozone exceedances based on current and potential stringent future National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) was also studied. Temperatures had an appreciable spatial impact on the 8-h ozone exceedances with a considerable increase in spatial area exceeding the NAAQS for the 8-h ozone levels within the study region for each successive augmentation in
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kinnon, Michael Mac
The current domestic reliance on high-emitting fossil fuels for energy needs is the key driver of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) and pollutant emissions driving both climate change and regional air quality (AQ) concerns. Moving forward, emission sources in U.S. energy sectors will be subjected to changes driven by numerous phenomena, including technology evolution, environmental impacts, sustainability goals, and socioeconomic factors. This evolution will directly affect emissions source-related impacts on regional AQ that effective emissions control strategies must account for, including relative source contributions. Though previous studies have evaluated the emissions and AQ impacts of different sectors, technologies and fuels, most previous studies have assessed emissions impacts only without using advanced atmospheric models to accurately account for both spatial and temporal emissions perturbations and atmospheric chemistry and transport. In addition, few previous studies have considered the integration of multiple technologies and fuels in different U.S. regions.. Finally, most studies do not project emissions several decades into the future to assess what sources should be targeted with priority over time. These aspects are critical for understanding how both emissions sources and potential mitigation strategies impact the formation and fate of primary and secondary pollutants, including ground-level ozone and particulate matter concentrations. Therefore, this work utilizes a set of modeling tools to project and then to spatially and temporally resolve emissions as input into a 3-D Eulerian AQ model to assess how sources of emissions contribute to future atmospheric pollutant burdens. Further, analyses of the potential impacts of alternative energy strategies contained in potential mitigation strategies are conducted for priority targets to develop an understanding of how to maximize AQ benefits and avoid unforeseen deleterious tradeoffs between GHG reduction
Skyrud, Katrine Damgaard; Bray, Freddie; Eriksen, Morten Tandberg; Nilssen, Yngvar; Møller, Bjørn
2016-05-01
Cancer survival varies by place of residence, but it remains uncertain whether this reflects differences in tumour, patient and treatment characteristics (including tumour stage, indicators of socioeconomic status (SES), comorbidity and information on received surgery and radiotherapy) or possibly regional differences in the quality of delivered health care. National population-based data from the Cancer Registry of Norway were used to identify cancer patients diagnosed in 2002-2011 (n = 258,675). We investigated survival from any type of cancer (all cancer sites combined), as well as for the six most common cancers. The effect of adjusting for prognostic factors on regional variations in cancer survival was examined by calculating the mean deviation, defined by the mean absolute deviation of the relative excess risks across health services regions. For prostate cancer, the mean deviation across regions was 1.78 when adjusting for age and sex only, but decreased to 1.27 after further adjustment for tumour stage. For breast cancer, the corresponding mean deviations were 1.34 and 1.27. Additional adjustment for other prognostic factors did not materially change the regional variation in any of the other sites. Adjustment for tumour stage explained most of the regional variations in prostate cancer survival, but had little impact for other sites. Unexplained regional variations after adjusting for tumour stage, SES indicators, comorbidity and type of treatment in Norway may be related to regional inequalities in the quality of cancer care. © 2015 UICC.
Priori, Maria Rosaria; Barbato, Angelo
2007-01-01
The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of health care planning and management guidelines, elaborated by the Lazio regional healthcare authority, on the organizational structure and operational processes of local health authorities and, more specifically, of the Roma C local health authority. The guidelines are made up of three volumes and mainly describe an operational model, rather than being a set of standard references aimed at standardizing the quality of information low systems in local healthcare authorities. The guidelines are essentially a didactic text, and were elaborated by a consulting firm, Engineering Management Consulting, on behalf of the Lazio regional authority. In the first section, the main concepts are defined, while in subsequent sections, detailed models regarding the specific subject matter are described. Although the guidelines represent a useful tool in the process of converting local health authorities of the Lazio region into "business" organizations, so far they have been of use only in the first phase of assessment of different organizational models for healthcare planning and management. There is still a long way ahead towards defining standard procedures and references for describing activities and costs. This is what should hopefully be achieved briefly and which will necessarily require the introduction of a data warehouse and business intelligence software that will allow monitoring of activities and making short term predictions through the use balanced scorecards and data mining.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Conard, S. G.; Kukavskaya, E. A.; Buryak, L. V.; Shvetsov, E.; Kalenskaya, O. P.; Zhila, S.
2017-12-01
The Zabaikal region of southern Siberia is characterized by some of the highest fire activity in Russia. There has been a significant increase of fire frequency and burned area in the region over the last two decades due to a combination of high anthropogenic pressure, decreased funding to the forestry sector, and increased fire danger, which was associated with higher frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Central and southern parts of the Zabaikal region where population density is higher and road network is relatively more developed are the most disturbed by fires. Larch stands cover the largest proportion of fire-disturbed lands in the region, while the less common pine and birch stands are characterized by higher fire frequency. About 13% (3.9 M ha) of the total forest area in the Zabaikal region was burned more than once in the 20 years from 1996 to 2015, with many sites burned multiple times. Repeat disturbances led to inadequate tree regeneration on all but the moistest sites. Pine stands on dry soils, which are common in the forest-steppe zone, were the most vulnerable. After repeat burns and over large burned sites we observed transformation of the forests to steppe ecosystems. The most likely causes of insufficient forest regeneration are soil overheating, dominance of tall grasses, and lack of nearby seed sources. Extensive tree plantations have potential to mitigate negative fire impacts; however, due to high fire hazard in the recent decade about half of the plantation area has been burned. Changes in the SWVI index were used to assess postfire reforestation based on a combination of satellite and field data. In the southwestern part of the Zabaikal region, we estimated that reforestation had been hampered over 11% of the forest land area. Regional climate models project increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation across Siberia by the end of the 21st century, with changes in the Zabaikal region projected to be more than twice the
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Malley, C. S.; Braban, C. F.; Dumitrean, P.; Cape, J. N.; Heal, M. R.
2015-03-01
The impact of 27 volatile organic compounds (VOC) on the regional O3 increment was investigated using measurements made at the UK EMEP supersites Harwell (1999-2001 and 2010-2012) and Auchencorth (2012). Ozone at these sites is representative of rural O3 in south-east England and northern UK, respectively. Monthly-diurnal regional O3 increment was defined as the difference between the regional and hemispheric background O3 concentrations, respectively derived from oxidant vs. NOx correlation plots, and cluster analysis of back trajectories arriving at Mace Head, Ireland. At Harwell, which had substantially greater regional ozone increments than at Auchencorth, variation in the regional O3 increment mirrored afternoon depletion of VOCs due to photochemistry (after accounting for diurnal changes in boundary layer mixing depth, and weighting VOC concentrations according to their photochemical ozone creation potential). A positive regional O3 increment occurred consistently during the summer, during which time afternoon photochemical depletion was calculated for the majority of measured VOCs, and to the greatest extent for ethene and m + p-xylene. This indicates that, of the measured VOCs, ethene and m + p-xylene emissions reduction would be most effective in reducing the regional O3 increment, but that reductions in a larger number of VOCs would be required for further improvement. The VOC diurnal photochemical depletion was linked to the sources of the VOC emissions through the integration of gridded VOC emissions estimates over 96 h air-mass back trajectories. This demonstrated that the effectiveness of VOC gridded emissions for use in measurement and modelling studies is limited by the highly aggregated nature of the 11 SNAP source sectors in which they are reported, as monthly variation in speciated VOC trajectory emissions did not reflect monthly changes in individual VOC diurnal photochemical depletion. Additionally, the major VOC emission source sectors during
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Malley, C. S.; Braban, C. F.; Dumitrean, P.; Cape, J. N.; Heal, M. R.
2015-07-01
The impact of 27 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) on the regional O3 increment was investigated using measurements made at the UK EMEP supersites Harwell (1999-2001 and 2010-2012) and Auchencorth (2012). Ozone at these sites is representative of rural O3 in south-east England and northern UK, respectively. The monthly-diurnal regional O3 increment was defined as the difference between the regional and hemispheric background O3 concentrations, respectively, derived from oxidant vs. NOx correlation plots, and cluster analysis of back trajectories arriving at Mace Head, Ireland. At Harwell, which had substantially greater regional O3 increments than Auchencorth, variation in the regional O3 increment mirrored afternoon depletion of anthropogenic VOCs due to photochemistry (after accounting for diurnal changes in boundary layer mixing depth, and weighting VOC concentrations according to their photochemical ozone creation potential). A positive regional O3 increment occurred consistently during the summer, during which time afternoon photochemical depletion was calculated for the majority of measured VOCs, and to the greatest extent for ethene and m+p-xylene. This indicates that, of the measured VOCs, ethene and m+p-xylene emissions reduction would be most effective in reducing the regional O3 increment but that reductions in a larger number of VOCs would be required for further improvement. The VOC diurnal photochemical depletion was linked to anthropogenic sources of the VOC emissions through the integration of gridded anthropogenic VOC emission estimates over 96 h air-mass back trajectories. This demonstrated that one factor limiting the effectiveness of VOC gridded emissions for use in measurement and modelling studies is the highly aggregated nature of the 11 SNAP (Selected Nomenclature for Air Pollution) source sectors in which they are reported, as monthly variation in speciated VOC trajectory emissions did not reflect monthly changes in individual VOC diurnal
Wolf, Christian; Klein, Daniel; Richter, Klaus; Weber-Blaschke, Gabriele
2016-11-01
Wood biomass, especially when applied for heating, plays an important role for mitigating environmental impacts such as climate change and the transition towards higher shares of renewable energy in today's energy mix. However, the magnitude of mitigation benefits and burdens associated with wood use can vary greatly depending on regional parameters such as the displaced fossil reference or heating mix. Therefore, regionalized displacement factors, considering region-specific production conditions and substituted products are required when assessing the precise contribution of wood biomass towards the mitigation of environmental impacts. We carried out Life Cycle Assessments of wood heating systems for typical Bavarian conditions and substitute energy carriers with a focus on climate change and particulate matter emissions. In order to showcase regional effects, we created weighted displacement factors for the region of Bavaria, based on installed capacities of individual wood heating systems and the harvested tree species distribution. The study reveals that GHG displacements between -57gCO2-eq.∗MJ(-1) of useful energy through the substitution of natural gas with a 15kW spruce pellets heating system and -165gCO2-eq.∗MJ(-1) through the substitution of power utilized for heating with a modern 6kW beech split log heating system can be achieved. It was shown that the GHG mitigation potentials of wood utilization are overestimated through the common use of light fuel oil as the only reference system. We further propose a methodology for the calculation of displacement factors which is adaptable to other regions worldwide. Based on our approach it is possible to generate displacement factors for wood heating systems which enable accurate decision-making for project planning in households, heating plants, communities and also for entire regions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The Balmer basin - Regional geology and geochemistry of an ancient lunar impact basin
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Maxwell, T. A.; Andre, C. G.
1982-01-01
Photogeologic, geochemical and geophysical information is cited to support the contention that an ancient multi-ringed basin exists in the east limb region of the moon, centered at 15 deg S and 70 deg E. The inner ring of the basin, with a diameter of 225 km, is composed of isolated rugged mountains of pre-Nectarian terra; the less distinct outer ring, whose diameter is approximately 450 km, is made up of irregular segments of surrounding large craters. It is noted that two units of light plains material occur in this area and that they are confined for the most part to the region within the proposed outer basin ring. According to orbital geochemical data, the younger unit (Imbrian age plains) consists of a mare basalt not unlike others of the nearside. This unit possesses high Mg/Al concentration ratios as determined from X-ray fluorescence data; it is also relatively high in Th and Fe when compared with the surrounding highlands. It is thought that the relatively high albedo of the Balmer plains may derive from either a reworking by numerous secondary craters from the surrounding impacts or a basaltic composition with higher albedo and lower Fe than the nearside maria.
Forecasting climate change impacts to plant community composition in the Sonoran Desert region
Munson, Seth M.; Webb, Robert H.; Belnap, Jayne; Hubbard, J. Andrew; Swann, Don E.; Rutman, Sue
2012-01-01
Hotter and drier conditions projected for the southwestern United States can have a large impact on the abundance and composition of long-lived desert plant species. We used long-term vegetation monitoring results from 39 large plots across four protected sites in the Sonoran Desert region to determine how plant species have responded to past climate variability. This cross-site analysis identified the plant species and functional types susceptible to climate change, the magnitude of their responses, and potential climate thresholds. In the relatively mesic mesquite savanna communities, perennial grasses declined with a decrease in annual precipitation, cacti increased, and there was a reversal of the Prosopis velutina expansion experienced in the 20th century in response to increasing mean annual temperature (MAT). In the more xeric Arizona Upland communities, the dominant leguminous tree, Cercidium microphyllum, declined on hillslopes, and the shrub Fouquieria splendens decreased, especially on south- and west-facing slopes in response to increasing MAT. In the most xeric shrublands, the codominant species Larrea tridentata and its hemiparasite Krameria grayi decreased with a decrease in cool season precipitation and increased aridity, respectively. This regional-scale assessment of plant species response to recent climate variability is critical for forecasting future shifts in plant community composition, structure, and productivity.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Prenni, A. J.; Day, D. E.; Evanoski-Cole, A. R.; Sive, B. C.; Hecobian, A.; Zhou, Y.; Gebhart, K. A.; Hand, J. L.; Sullivan, A. P.; Li, Y.; Schurman, M. I.; Desyaterik, Y.; Malm, W. C.; Schichtel, B. A.; Collett, J. L., Jr.
2015-10-01
The Bakken formation contains billions of barrels of oil and gas trapped in rock and shale. Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing methods have allowed for extraction of these resources, leading to exponential growth of oil production in the region over the past decade. Along with this development has come an increase in associated emissions to the atmosphere. Concern about potential impacts of these emissions on federal lands in the region prompted the National Park Service to sponsor the Bakken Air Quality Study over two winters in 2013-2014. Here we provide an overview of the study and present some initial results aimed at better understanding the impact of local oil and gas emissions on regional air quality. Data from the study, along with long term monitoring data, suggest that while power plants are still an important emissions source in the region, emissions from oil and gas activities are impacting ambient concentrations of nitrogen oxides and black carbon and may dominate recent observed trends in pollutant concentrations at some of the study sites. Measurements of volatile organic compounds also definitively show that oil and gas emissions were present in almost every air mass sampled over a period of more than four months.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Prenni, A. J.; Day, D. E.; Evanoski-Cole, A. R.; Sive, B. C.; Hecobian, A.; Zhou, Y.; Gebhart, K. A.; Hand, J. L.; Sullivan, A. P.; Li, Y.; Schurman, M. I.; Desyaterik, Y.; Malm, W. C.; Collett, J. L., Jr.; Schichtel, B. A.
2016-02-01
The Bakken formation contains billions of barrels of oil and gas trapped in rock and shale. Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing methods have allowed for extraction of these resources, leading to exponential growth of oil production in the region over the past decade. Along with this development has come an increase in associated emissions to the atmosphere. Concern about potential impacts of these emissions on federal lands in the region prompted the National Park Service to sponsor the Bakken Air Quality Study over two winters in 2013-2014. Here we provide an overview of the study and present some initial results aimed at better understanding the impact of local oil and gas emissions on regional air quality. Data from the study, along with long-term monitoring data, suggest that while power plants are still an important emissions source in the region, emissions from oil and gas activities are impacting ambient concentrations of nitrogen oxides and black carbon and may dominate recent observed trends in pollutant concentrations at some of the study sites. Measurements of volatile organic compounds also definitively show that oil and gas emissions were present in almost every air mass sampled over a period of more than 4 months.
Demirkesen, Ali Can; Evrendilek, Fatih
2017-01-01
The study presents a new methodology to quantify spatiotemporal dynamics of climate change vulnerability at a regional scale adopting a new conceptual model of vulnerability as a function of climate change impacts, ecological stability, and socioeconomic stability. Spatiotemporal trends of equally weighted proxy variables for the three vulnerability components were generated to develop a composite climate change vulnerability index (CCVI) for a Mediterranean region of Turkey combining Landsat time series data, digital elevation model (DEM)-derived data, ordinary kriging, and geographical information system. Climate change impact was based on spatiotemporal trends of August land surface temperature (LST) between 1987 and 2016. Ecological stability was based on DEM, slope, aspect, and spatiotemporal trends of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), while socioeconomic stability was quantified as a function of spatiotemporal trends of land cover, population density, per capita gross domestic product, and illiteracy. The zones ranked on the five classes of no-to-extreme vulnerability were identified where highly and moderately vulnerable lands covered 0.02% (12 km 2 ) and 11.8% (6374 km 2 ) of the study region, respectively, mostly occurring in the interior central part. The adoption of this composite CCVI approach is expected to lead to spatiotemporally dynamic policy recommendations towards sustainability and tailor preventive and mitigative measures to locally specific characteristics of coupled ecological-socioeconomic systems.
Regional Radiation Therapy Impacts Outcome for Node-Positive Cutaneous Melanoma.
Strom, Tobin; Torres-Roca, Javier F; Parekh, Akash; Naghavi, Arash O; Caudell, Jimmy J; Oliver, Daniel E; Messina, Jane L; Khushalani, Nikhil I; Zager, Jonathan S; Sarnaik, Amod; Mulé, James J; Trotti, Andy M; Eschrich, Steven A; Sondak, Vernon K; Harrison, Louis B
2017-04-01
Background: Regional radiation therapy (RT) has been shown to reduce the risk of regional recurrence with node-positive cutaneous melanoma. However, risk factors for regional recurrence, especially in the era of sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB), are less clear. Our goals were to identify risk factors associated with regional recurrence and to determine whether a radiosensitivity index (RSI) gene expression signature (GES) could identify patients who experience a survival benefit with regional RT. Methods: A single-institution, Institutional Review Board-approved study was performed including 410 patients treated with either SLNB with or without completion lymph node dissection (LND; n=270) or therapeutic LND (n=91). Postoperative regional RT was delivered to the involved nodal basin in 83 cases (20.2%), to a median dose of 54 Gy (range, 30-60 Gy) in 27 fractions (range, 5-30). Primary outcomes were regional control and overall survival by RSI GES status. Results: Median follow-up was 69 months (range, 13-180). Postoperative regional RT was associated with a reduced risk of regional recurrence among all patients on univariate (5-year estimate: 95.0% vs 83.3%; P =.036) and multivariate analysis (hazard ratio[HR], 0.15; 95% CI, 0.05-0.43; P <.001). Among higher-risk subgroups, regional RT was associated with a lower risk of regional recurrence among patients with clinically detected lymph nodes (n=175; 5-year regional control: 94.1% vs 69.5%; P =.003) and extracapsular extension (ECE) present (n=138; 5-year regional control: 96.7% vs 62.2%; P <.001). Among a subset of radiated patients with gene expression data available, a low RSI GES (radiosensitive) tumor status was associated with improved survival compared with a high RSI GES (5-year: 75% vs 0%; HR, 10.68; 95% CI, 1.24-92.14). Conclusions: Regional RT was associated with a reduced risk of regional recurrence among patients with ECE and clinically detected nodal disease. Gene expression data show promise for
Impact of lateral boundary conditions on regional analyses
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chikhar, Kamel; Gauthier, Pierre
2017-04-01
Regional and global climate models are usually validated by comparison to derived observations or reanalyses. Using a model in data assimilation results in a direct comparison to observations to produce its own analyses that may reveal systematic errors. In this study, regional analyses over North America are produced based on the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) combined with the variational data assimilation system of the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC). CRCM5 is driven at its boundaries by global analyses from ERA-interim or produced with the global configuration of the CRCM5. Assimilation cycles for the months of January and July 2011 revealed systematic errors in winter through large values in the mean analysis increments. This bias is attributed to the coupling of the lateral boundary conditions of the regional model with the driving data particularly over the northern boundary where a rapidly changing large scale circulation created significant cross-boundary flows. Increasing the time frequency of the lateral driving and applying a large-scale spectral nudging improved significantly the circulation through the lateral boundaries which translated in a much better agreement with observations.
The effect of regional politics on regional life expectancy in Italy (1980-2010).
Jonker, Marcel F; D'Ippolito, Edoardo; Eikemo, Terje A; Congdon, Peter D; Nante, Nicola; Mackenbach, Johan P; Kamphuis, Carlijn B M
2017-03-01
The evidence on the association between politics and health is scarce considering the importance of this topic for population health. Studies that investigated the effect of different political regimes on health outcomes show inconsistent results. Bayesian time-series cross-section analyses are used to examine the overall impact of regional politics on variations in Italian regional life expectancy (LE) at birth during the period 1980-2010. Our analyses control for trends in and unobserved determinants of regional LE, correct for temporal as well as spatial autocorrelation, and employ a flexible specification for the timing of the political effects. In the period from 1980 to 1995, we find no evidence that the communist, left-oriented coalitions and Christian Democratic, centre-oriented coalitions have had an effect on regional LE. In the period from 1995 onwards, after a major reconfiguration of Italy's political regimes and a major healthcare reform, we again find no evidence that the Centre-Left and Centre-Right coalitions have had a significant impact on regional LE. The presented results provide no support for the notion that different regional political regimes in Italy have had a differential effect on regional LE, even though Italian regions have had considerable and increasing autonomy over healthcare and health-related policies and expenditures.
Sperandio, Naiara; Rodrigues, Cristiana Tristão; Franceschini, Sylvia do Carmo Castro; Priore, Silvia Eloiza
2017-06-01
The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the Bolsa Família Program (PBF) on food consumption in the northeast and southeast regions of Brazil. The database was obtained from the individual food consumption module of the Household Budget Survey conducted in 2008-09. Consumption was assessed through two food records. The food was categorized into four groups: fresh or minimally processed food; culinary ingredients; processed food; and ultra-processed food. To analyze the impact, the propensity score matching method was used, which compares the individual recipients and non-recipients of the PBF in relation to a group of socioeconomic characteristics. After the propensity score was calculated, the impact of the PBF was estimated through the nearest-neighbor matching algorithm. In both regions, more than 60% of the daily total calories consumed by PBF recipients came from foods that had not undergone industrial processing. The recipients of PBF had a low level of consumption of processed and ultra-processed food in both regions, and an increased level of consumption of fresh or minimally processed food in the northeast. The results indicate the importance of adopting intersectoral policies in parallel to the PBF in order to strengthen healthy eating practices.
Syed, Kamran Bokhari; Zaheer, Kamran Bokhari; Ibrahim, Mohammed; Bagi, Mustafa Abdel; Assiri, Mohammed Abdullah
2013-02-01
To report the prevalence of impacted third molars according to the age, gender and type among Saudi population. This retrospective study involved 3800 panoramic radiographs of subjects aged 18 to 45 years who presented to the College of Dentistry, King Khalid University, Abha, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for oral care during the period from February 2009 to February 2011. Data collected was entered into a spreadsheet (Excel 2000; Microsoft, US) and analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 16.0. A total of 713 impacted teeth were identified (18.76%) (p=0.003). The male to female ratio with impacted third molars was 604:109 (5.54:1) and the ratio of patients with impacted teeth was (5:1). Age group 1 (i.e., 20 to 25 years)had the highest prevalence of third molar tooth impaction (64.5%) and this decreased with increasing age. Incidence of tooth impaction is higher in the mandible than in maxilla. Males had a higher incidence of third molar impaction as compared to the females. Highest incidence is found in the age group of 20-25 years. Mesio-angular impaction was the most predominant type. How to cite this article: Syed KB, Kota Z, Ibrahim M, Bagi MA, Assiri MA. "Prevalence of Impacted Molar Teeth among Saudi Population in Asir Region, Saudi Arabia - A Retrospective Study of 3 Years". J Int Oral Health 2013; 5(1):43-47.
Assessing the regional impacts of increased energy maize cultivation on farmland birds.
Brandt, Karoline; Glemnitz, Michael
2014-02-01
The increasing cultivation of energy crops in Germany substantially affects the habitat function of agricultural landscapes. Precise ex ante evaluations regarding the impacts of this cultivation on farmland bird populations are rare. The objective of this paper was to implement a methodology to assess the regional impacts of increasing energy maize cultivation on the habitat quality of agricultural lands for farmland birds. We selected five farmland bird indicator species with varying habitat demands. Using a crop suitability modelling approach, we analysed the availability of potential habitat areas according to different land use scenarios for a real landscape in Northeast Germany. The model was based on crop architecture, cultivation period, and landscape preconditions. Our results showed that the habitat suitability of different crops varied between bird species, and scenario calculations revealed an increase and a decrease in the size of the potential breeding and feeding habitats, respectively. The effects observed in scenario 1 (increased energy maize by 15%) were not reproduced in all cases in scenario 2 (increased energy maize by 30%). Spatial aggregation of energy maize resulted in a negative effect for some species. Changes in the composition of the farmland bird communities, the negative effects on farmland bird species limited in distribution and spread and the relevance of the type of agricultural land use being replaced by energy crops are also discussed. In conclusion, we suggest a trade-off between biodiversity and energy targets by identifying biodiversity-friendly energy cropping systems.
Ramuscak, Nancy L; Jiang, Depeng; Dooling, Kathleen L; Mowat, David L
2012-07-18
The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the elevated rate of low birth weight (LBW) in the Region of Peel, Ontario can be attributed to the high proportion of immigrants in the population. In addition, we examined how the infant birth weight distribution in Peel differs by maternal region of birth. Provincial live birth registration data were used to compare rates of LBW, preterm birth and small-for-gestational-age (SGA) births in Peel and Ontario for the years 2002 through 2006 by maternal region of birth. Birth weight for gestational age curves were developed for singletons and were specific for infant sex and maternal region of birth using the lambda-mu-sigma (LMS) method. Quantile regression was used to examine whether the median birth weight at term (37 to 42 weeks) differed by maternal region of birth. The rate of LBW was higher in Peel than in Ontario (6.8% and 6.0%, respectively). This is the result of a higher SGA rate and not due to differences in rates of preterm birth. Infants of immigrant mothers had significantly lower median birth weights at all gestations, showing that the birth weight distribution among infants of immigrant mothers is shifted towards lower birth weights. At the population level, the shifted birth weight distribution among singleton infants of immigrant mothers has significant impact on the LBW rate observed in Peel.
Hawkins, S J; Evans, A J; Mieszkowska, N; Adams, L C; Bray, S; Burrows, M T; Firth, L B; Genner, M J; Leung, K M Y; Moore, P J; Pack, K; Schuster, H; Sims, D W; Whittington, M; Southward, E C
2017-11-30
Marine ecosystems are subject to anthropogenic change at global, regional and local scales. Global drivers interact with regional- and local-scale impacts of both a chronic and acute nature. Natural fluctuations and those driven by climate change need to be understood to diagnose local- and regional-scale impacts, and to inform assessments of recovery. Three case studies are used to illustrate the need for long-term studies: (i) separation of the influence of fishing pressure from climate change on bottom fish in the English Channel; (ii) recovery of rocky shore assemblages from the Torrey Canyon oil spill in the southwest of England; (iii) interaction of climate change and chronic Tributyltin pollution affecting recovery of rocky shore populations following the Torrey Canyon oil spill. We emphasize that "baselines" or "reference states" are better viewed as envelopes that are dependent on the time window of observation. Recommendations are made for adaptive management in a rapidly changing world. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Yadav, Ishwar Chandra; Linthoingambi Devi, Ningombam; Li, Jun; Syed, Jabir Hussain; Zhang, Gan; Watanabe, Hirozumi
2017-08-01
Although, many biomass burning (BB) emissions products (particulate matter and trace gases) are believed to be trans-boundary pollutants that originates from India and China (the two most populous countries in Asia), the information about BB emission and related contents is limited for Indo-China Peninsula (ICP) region. This motivated us to review this region pertaining to BB emission. The main objective of the review is to document the current status of BB emission in ICP region. In order to highlight the impact of BB on regional air quality and global climate change, the role of BB emission in ICP region is also discussed. Based on the available literature and modeling simulations studies, it is evidenced that ICP is one of the hotspot regional source for aerosols in terms of BB emissions. In addition, regional emissions through BB have significant implications for regional air quality especially in the neighboring countries such as China, Taiwan and India. Our assessment highlight that there is still a general lack of reliable data and research studies addressing BB related issues in context of environmental and human health. There is therefore a critical need to improve the current knowledge base, which should build upon the research experience and further research into these issues is considered vital to help inform future policies/control strategies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Regional analysis of drought and heat impacts on forests: current and future science directions.
Law, Beverly E
2014-12-01
Accurate assessments of forest response to current and future climate and human actions are needed at regional scales. Predicting future impacts on forests will require improved analysis of species-level adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability to mortality. Land system models can be enhanced by creating trait-based groupings of species that better represent climate sensitivity, such as risk of hydraulic failure from drought. This emphasizes the need for more coordinated in situ and remote sensing observations to track changes in ecosystem function, and to improve model inputs, spatio-temporal diagnosis, and predictions of future conditions, including implications of actions to mitigate climate change. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Wave resource variability: Impacts on wave power supply over regional to international scales
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Smith, Helen; Fairley, Iain; Robertson, Bryson; Abusara, Mohammad; Masters, Ian
2017-04-01
The intermittent, irregular and variable nature of the wave energy resource has implications for the supply of wave-generated electricity into the grid. Intermittency of renewable power may lead to frequency and voltage fluctuations in the transmission and distribution networks. A matching supply of electricity must be planned to meet the predicted demand, leading to a need for gas-fired and back-up generating plants to supplement intermittent supplies, and potentially limiting the integration of intermittent power into the grid. Issues relating to resource intermittency and their mitigation through the development of spatially separated sites have been widely researched in the wind industry, but have received little attention to date in the less mature wave industry. This study analyses the wave resource over three different spatial scales to investigate the potential impacts of the temporal and spatial resource variability on the grid supply. The primary focus is the Southwest UK, a region already home to multiple existing and proposed wave energy test sites. Concurrent wave buoy data from six locations, supported by SWAN wave model hindcast data, are analysed to assess the correlation of the resource across the region and the variation in wave power with direction. Power matrices for theoretical nearshore and offshore devices are used to calculate the maximum step change in generated power across the region as the number of deployment sites is increased. The step change analysis is also applied across national and international spatial scales using output from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) ERA-Interim hindcast model. It is found that the deployment of multiple wave energy sites, whether on a regional, national or international scale, results in both a reduction in step changes in power and reduced times of zero generation, leading to an overall smoothing of the wave-generated electrical power. This has implications for the
Zhang, Dezhi; Li, Shuangyan
2014-01-01
This paper proposes a new model of simultaneous optimization of three-level logistics decisions, for logistics authorities, logistics operators, and logistics users, for regional logistics network with environmental impact consideration. The proposed model addresses the interaction among the three logistics players in a complete competitive logistics service market with CO2 emission charges. We also explicitly incorporate the impacts of the scale economics of the logistics park and the logistics users' demand elasticity into the model. The logistics authorities aim to maximize the total social welfare of the system, considering the demand of green logistics development by two different methods: optimal location of logistics nodes and charging a CO2 emission tax. Logistics operators are assumed to compete with logistics service fare and frequency, while logistics users minimize their own perceived logistics disutility given logistics operators' service fare and frequency. A heuristic algorithm based on the multinomial logit model is presented for the three-level decision model, and a numerical example is given to illustrate the above optimal model and its algorithm. The proposed model provides a useful tool for modeling competitive logistics services and evaluating logistics policies at the strategic level. PMID:24977209
Zhang, Dezhi; Li, Shuangyan; Qin, Jin
2014-01-01
This paper proposes a new model of simultaneous optimization of three-level logistics decisions, for logistics authorities, logistics operators, and logistics users, for regional logistics network with environmental impact consideration. The proposed model addresses the interaction among the three logistics players in a complete competitive logistics service market with CO2 emission charges. We also explicitly incorporate the impacts of the scale economics of the logistics park and the logistics users' demand elasticity into the model. The logistics authorities aim to maximize the total social welfare of the system, considering the demand of green logistics development by two different methods: optimal location of logistics nodes and charging a CO2 emission tax. Logistics operators are assumed to compete with logistics service fare and frequency, while logistics users minimize their own perceived logistics disutility given logistics operators' service fare and frequency. A heuristic algorithm based on the multinomial logit model is presented for the three-level decision model, and a numerical example is given to illustrate the above optimal model and its algorithm. The proposed model provides a useful tool for modeling competitive logistics services and evaluating logistics policies at the strategic level.
Future Climate Impacts on Crop Water Demand and Groundwater Longevity in Agricultural Regions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Russo, T. A.; Sahoo, S.; Elliott, J. W.; Foster, I.
2016-12-01
Improving groundwater management practices under future drought conditions in agricultural regions requires three steps: 1) estimating the impacts of climate and drought on crop water demand, 2) projecting groundwater availability given climate and demand forcing, and 3) using this information to develop climate-smart policy and water use practices. We present an innovative combination of models to address the first two steps, and inform the third. Crop water demand was simulated using biophysical crop models forced by multiple climate models and climate scenarios, with one case simulating climate adaptation (e.g. modify planting or harvest time) and another without adaptation. These scenarios were intended to represent a range of drought projections and farm management responses. Nexty, we used projected climate conditions and simulated water demand across the United States as inputs to a novel machine learning-based groundwater model. The model was applied to major agricultural regions relying on the High Plains and Mississippi Alluvial aquifer systems in the US. The groundwater model integrates input data preprocessed using single spectrum analysis, mutual information, and a genetic algorithm, with an artificial neural network model. Model calibration and test results indicate low errors over the 33 year model run, and strong correlations to groundwater levels in hundreds of wells across each aquifer. Model results include a range of projected groundwater level changes from the present to 2050, and in some regions, identification and timeframe of aquifer depletion. These results quantify aquifer longevity under climate and crop scenarios, and provide decision makers with the data needed to compare scenarios of crop water demand, crop yield, and groundwater response, as they aim to balance water sustainability with food security.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Zhiying; Fang, Haiyan
2017-09-01
Climate change is expected to impact discharge and sediment yield in watersheds. The purpose of this paper is to assess the potential impacts of climate change on water discharge and sediment yield for the Yi'an watershed of the black soil region, northeastern China, based on the newly released Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) during 2071-2099. For this purpose, the TETIS model was implemented to simulate the hydrological and sedimentological responses to climate change. The model calibration (1971-1977) and validation (1978-1987) performances were rated as satisfactory. The modeling results for the four RCP scenarios relative to the control scenario under the same land use configuration indicated an increase in discharge of 16.3% (RCP 2.6), 14.3% (RCP 4.5), 36.7% (RCP 6.0) and 71.4% (RCP 8.5) and an increase in the sediment yield of 16.5% (RCP 2.6), 32.4% (RCP 4.5), 81.8% (RCP 6.0) and 170% (RCP 8.5). This implies that the negative impact of climate change on sediment yield is generally greater than that on discharge. At the monthly scale, both discharge and sediment yield increased dramatically in April to June and August to September. A more vigorous hydrological cycle and an increase in high values of sediment yield are also expected. These changes in annual discharge and sediment yield were closely linked with changes in precipitation, whereas monthly changes in late spring and autumn were mainly related to temperature. This study highlights the possible adverse impact of climate change on discharge and sediment yield in the black soil region of northeastern China and could provide scientific basis for adaptive management.
Impact of oil spill from ship on air quality around coastal regions of Korea
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shon, Zang-Ho; Song, Sang-Keun
2010-05-01
Regional air quality around coastal regions, where regular maritime traffic emissions from cargo, other commercial, fishing and military vessels are significantly active, can be affected by their direct emission of primary air pollutants (NOx, SO2, particulate matter (PM), etc.). For instance, harbor traffic exerted an important impact on NO2, SO2, O3, and PM levels. In addition, regional air quality around coastal regions is also affected by oil spill caused by ship accident in the coast. On 7 Dec., 2007, a barge carrying a crane hit the oil tanker MT Hebei Sprit off the west coast of the Republic of Korea, Yellow Sea (approximately 10 km off the coast), at 0700 local time, causing the spill of total estimated 12,547 tons of Iranian heavy (IH) and Kuwait Export (KE) crude oils. Since then, oil began coming on shore late in the night on 7 Dec. More than 150 km of coastline had been identified as being impacted by 17 Dec. Much of the affected area is part of the Taean-gun National Park and the nearest coastal city to spilled area is Taean. On 8 Dec., the flow of oil from the tanker was stopped when the holes were patched. The accident is the worst oil spill in Korea and the spill area is about one-third of the size of the Exxon Valdez oil spill. The short- and long-term effects of oil spill on marine environment have been numerously studied, not on atmospheric environment. In this study, the air quality impact near spilled area by the evaporation of hydrocarbons from the oil spill is studied in detail. The evaporation rates of the volatile fractions of the crude oils released by oil spill were estimated based on their mole fractions of crude oils and mass transfer coefficients. Based on a molecular diffusion process, the flux of spilled oil component (Fivap, mol m-2 s-1) can be expressed as follows: Fivap = Kivap(Civap - C∞vap) (1) where Civap is concentration (mol m-3) of a component i of crude oil vapor in the air at the oil-air interface; C∞vap is the
McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Rokho; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Iddings, Steven; Naicker, Jyotishma; Bambrick, Hilary; McMichael, Anthony J.; Ebi, Kristie L.
2015-01-01
Background: Between 2010 and 2012, the World Health Organization Division of Pacific Technical Support led a regional climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project, in collaboration with health sector partners, in 13 Pacific island countries—Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. Objective: We assessed the vulnerabilities of Pacific island countries to the health impacts of climate change and planned adaptation strategies to minimize such threats to health. Methods: This assessment involved a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The former included descriptive epidemiology, time series analyses, Poisson regression, and spatial modeling of climate and climate-sensitive disease data, in the few instances where this was possible; the latter included wide stakeholder consultations, iterative consensus building, and expert opinion. Vulnerabilities were ranked using a “likelihood versus impact” matrix, and adaptation strategies were prioritized and planned accordingly. Results: The highest-priority climate-sensitive health risks in Pacific island countries included trauma from extreme weather events, heat-related illnesses, compromised safety and security of water and food, vector-borne diseases, zoonoses, respiratory illnesses, psychosocial ill-health, non-communicable diseases, population pressures, and health system deficiencies. Adaptation strategies relating to these climate change and health risks could be clustered according to categories common to many countries in the Pacific region. Conclusion: Pacific island countries are among the most vulnerable in the world to the health impacts of climate change. This vulnerability is a function of their unique geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics combined with their exposure to changing weather patterns associated with climate
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Old West Regional Commission, Billings, MT.
To evaluate and test the effectiveness of the "Procedures Manual for Assisting the Socioeconomic Impact of the Construction and Operation of Coal Utilization Facilities in the Old West Region," an impact study of a proposed electric generating station on the Laramie River near Wheatland, Wyoming, identifies difficulties encountered in…
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Laul, K. M.; Kim, K. M.
2010-01-01
In this paper, we present corroborative observational evidences from satellites, in-situ observations, and re-analysis data showing possible impacts of absorbing aerosols (black carbon and dust) on subseasonal and regional summer monsoon rainfall over India. We find that increased absorbing aerosols in the Indo-Gangetic Plain in recent decades may have lead to long-term warming of the upper troposphere over northern India and the Tibetan Plateau, enhanced rainfall in northern India and the Himalayas foothill regions in the early part (may-June) of the monsoon season, followed by diminished rainfall over central and southern India in the latter part (July-August) of the monsoon season. These signals which are consistent with current theories of atmospheric heating and solar dimming by aerosol and induced cloudiness in modulating the Indian monsoon, would have been masked by conventional method of using al-India rainfall averaged over the entire monsoon season.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Crippa, Monica; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Dentener, Frank; Guizzardi, Diego; Sindelarova, Katerina; Muntean, Marilena; Van Dingenen, Rita; Granier, Claire
2016-03-01
The EDGARv4.3.1 (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research) global anthropogenic emissions inventory of gaseous (SO2, NOx, CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds and NH3) and particulate (PM10, PM2.5, black and organic carbon) air pollutants for the period 1970-2010 is used to develop retrospective air pollution emissions scenarios to quantify the roles and contributions of changes in energy consumption and efficiency, technology progress and end-of-pipe emission reduction measures and their resulting impact on health and crop yields at European and global scale. The reference EDGARv4.3.1 emissions include observed and reported changes in activity data, fuel consumption and air pollution abatement technologies over the past 4 decades, combined with Tier 1 and region-specific Tier 2 emission factors. Two further retrospective scenarios assess the interplay of policy and industry. The highest emission STAG_TECH scenario assesses the impact of the technology and end-of-pipe reduction measures in the European Union, by considering historical fuel consumption, along with a stagnation of technology with constant emission factors since 1970, and assuming no further abatement measures and improvement imposed by European emission standards. The lowest emission STAG_ENERGY scenario evaluates the impact of increased fuel consumption by considering unchanged energy consumption since the year 1970, but assuming the technological development, end-of-pipe reductions, fuel mix and energy efficiency of 2010. Our scenario analysis focuses on the three most important and most regulated sectors (power generation, manufacturing industry and road transport), which are subject to multi-pollutant European Union Air Quality regulations. Stagnation of technology and air pollution reduction measures at 1970 levels would have led to 129 % (or factor 2.3) higher SO2, 71 % higher NOx and 69 % higher PM2.5 emissions in Europe (EU27), demonstrating the large role that technology has
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Westervelt, D. M.
2016-12-01
It is widely expected that global and regional emissions of atmospheric aerosols and their precursors will decrease strongly throughout the remainder of the 21st century, due to emission reduction policies enacted to protect human health. Although there is some evidence that these aerosol reductions may lead to significant regional and global climate impacts, we currently lack a full understanding of the magnitude, spatial and temporal pattern, and statistical significance of these influences, especially for clouds and precipitation. Further, we often lack robust understanding of the processes by which regional aerosols influence local and remote climate. Here, we aim to quantify systematically the cloud and hydrological cycle response to regional changes in aerosols through model simulations using three fully coupled chemistry-climate models: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model 3 (GFDL-CM3), NCAR Community Earth System Model (NCAR-CESM1), and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2 (GISS-E2). The central approach we use is to contrast a long control experiment (400 years) with a collection of long individual perturbation experiments ( 200 years). We perturb emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2; precursor to sulfate aerosol) in the United States and determine which responses are significant relative to internal variability and robust across the three models. Initial results show robust, statistically significant decreases in cloud droplet number and liquid water path in the source region across the three models due to decreases in sulfate aerosols. Setting SO2 emissions to zero over the U.S. causes both local and remote impacts in precipitation, with notable significant increases in Sahel and Arctic precipitation. In 13 of the 15 regions we analyze, the precipitation response to zero U.S. SO2 emissions agrees in sign, with agreement in magnitude to within one standard deviation in many of those regions. U.S. sulfate also impacts the timing
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xie, Min; Zhu, Kuanguang; Wang, Tijian; Feng, Wen; Gao, Da; Li, Mengmeng; Li, Shu; Zhuang, Bingliang; Han, Yong; Chen, Pulong; Liao, Jingbiao
2016-12-01
Anthropogenic heat (AH) emissions from human activities can change the urban circulation and thereby affect the air pollution in and around cities. Based on statistic data, the spatial distribution of AH flux in South China is estimated. With the aid of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem), in which the AH parameterization is developed to incorporate the gridded AH emissions with temporal variation, simulations for January and July in 2014 are performed over South China. By analyzing the differences between the simulations with and without adding AH, the impact of AH on regional meteorology and air quality is quantified. The results show that the regional annual mean AH fluxes over South China are only 0.87 W m-2, but the values for the urban areas of the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region can be close to 60 W m-2. These AH emissions can significantly change the urban heat island and urban-breeze circulations in big cities. In the PRD city cluster, 2 m air temperature rises by 1.1° in January and over 0.5° in July, the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) increases by 120 m in January and 90 m in July, 10 m wind speed is intensified to over 0.35 m s-1 in January and 0.3 m s-1 in July, and accumulative precipitation is enhanced by 20-40 % in July. These changes in meteorological conditions can significantly impact the spatial and vertical distributions of air pollutants. Due to the increases in PBLH, surface wind speed and upward vertical movement, the concentrations of primary air pollutants decrease near the surface and increase in the upper levels. But the vertical changes in O3 concentrations show the different patterns in different seasons. The surface O3 concentrations in big cities increase with maximum values of over 2.5 ppb in January, while O3 is reduced at the lower layers and increases at the upper layers above some megacities in July. This phenomenon can be attributed to the fact that chemical effects can play a
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kadel, Steven D.; Chuang, Frank C.; Greeley, Ronald; Moore, Jeffrey M.
2000-01-01
Galileo images of the Tyre Macula region of Europa at regional (170 m/pixel) and local (approx. 40 m/pixel) scales allow mapping and understanding of surface processes and landforms. Ridged plains, doublet and complex ridges, shallow pits, domes, "chaos" areas. impact structures, tilted blocks and massifs, and young fracture systems indicate a complex history of surface deformation on Europa. Regional and local morphologies of the Tyre region of Europa suggest that an impactor penetrated through several kilometers of water ice tc a mobile layer below. The surface morphology was initially dominated by formation of ridged plains, followed by development of ridge bands and doublet ridges, with chaos and fracture formation dominating the latter part of the geologic history of the Tyre region. Two distinct types of chaos have been identified which, along with upwarped dome materials, appear to represent a continuum of features (domes-play chaos-knobby chaos) resulting from increasing degree of surface disruption associated with local lithospheric heating and thinning. Local and regional stratigraphic relationships, block heights, and the morphology of the Tyre impact structure suggest the presence of low-viscosity ice or liquid water beneath a thin (severa1 kilometers) surface ice shell at the time of the impact. The very low impact crater density on the surface of Europa suggests that this thin shell has either formed or been thoroughly resurfaced in the very recent past.
Monitoring Intense Thunderstorms in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan Region
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Gatlin, Patrick; Cecil, Daniel; Case, Jonathan; Bell, Jordan; Petersen, Walter; Adhikary, Bhupesh
2016-01-01
Some of the most intense thunderstorms on the planet routinely occur in the Hindu-Kush Himalaya region(HKH) region where many government organizations lack the capacity needed to predict, observe and effectively respond to the threats and hazards associated with high impact convective weather. This project combines innovative numerical weather prediction, satellite-based precipitation and land imagery techniques into a high impact weather assessment toolkit (HIWAT) that will build the capabilities of national meteorological departments and other weather sensitive agencies in the HKH region to assess the potential threats and impacts of high impact convective weather.
Mattern, Thomas; Meyer, Stefan; Ellenberg, Ursula; Houston, David M; Darby, John T; Young, Melanie; van Heezik, Yolanda; Seddon, Philip J
2017-01-01
Climate change is a global issue with effects that are difficult to manage at a regional scale. Yet more often than not climate factors are just some of multiple stressors affecting species on a population level. Non-climatic factors-especially those of anthropogenic origins-may play equally important roles with regard to impacts on species and are often more feasible to address. Here we assess the influence of climate change on population trends of the endangered Yellow-eyed penguin ( Megadyptes antipodes ) over the last 30 years, using a Bayesian model. Sea surface temperature (SST) proved to be the dominating factor influencing survival of both adult birds and fledglings. Increasing SST since the mid-1990s was accompanied by a reduction in survival rates and population decline. The population model showed that 33% of the variation in population numbers could be explained by SST alone, significantly increasing pressure on the penguin population. Consequently, the population becomes less resilient to non-climate related impacts, such as fisheries interactions, habitat degradation and human disturbance. However, the extent of the contribution of these factors to declining population trends is extremely difficult to assess principally due to the absence of quantifiable data, creating a discussion bias towards climate variables, and effectively distracting from non-climate factors that can be managed on a regional scale to ensure the viability of the population.
Impact of anthropogenic heat release on regional climate in three vast urban agglomerations in China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Feng, Jinming; Wang, Jun; Yan, Zhongwei
2014-03-01
We simulated the impact of anthropogenic heat release (AHR) on the regional climate in three vast city agglomerations in China using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with nested high-resolution modeling. Based on energy consumption and high-quality land use data, we designed two scenarios to represent no-AHR and current-AHR conditions. By comparing the results of the two numerical experiments, changes of surface air temperature and precipitation due to AHR were quantified and analyzed. We concluded that AHR increases the temperature in these urbanized areas by about 0.5°C—1°C, and this increase is more pronounced in winter than in other seasons. The inclusion of AHR enhances the convergence of water vapor over urbanized areas. Together with the warming of the lower troposphere and the enhancement of ascending motions caused by AHR, the average convective available potential energy in urbanized areas is increased. Rainfall amounts in summer over urbanized areas are likely to increase and regional precipitation patterns to be altered to some extent.
Climate Change Impacts on Sediment Yield in Headwaters of a High-latitude Region in China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhou, Y.; Xu, Y. J.; Wang, J., , Dr; Weihua, X.; Huang, Y.
2017-12-01
Climate change is expected to have strongest effects in higher latitude regions. Despite intensive research on possible hydrological responses to global warming in these regions, our knowledge of climate change on surface erosion and sediment yield in high-latitude headwaters is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict future runoff and sediment yield from the headwaters of a high-latitude river basin in China's far northeast. The SWAT model was first calibrated with historical discharge records and the model parameterization achieved satisfactory validation. The calibrated model was then applied to two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for the period from 2020 to 2050 to estimate future runoff. Sediment yields for this period were predicted using a discharge-sediment load rating curve developed from field measurements in the past nine years. Our preliminary results show an increasing trend of sediment yield under both climate change scenarios, and that the increase is more pronounced in the summer and autumn months. Changes in precipitation and temperature seem to exert variable impacts on runoff and sediment yield at interannual and seasonal scales in these headwaters. These findings imply that the current river basin management in the region needs to be reviewed and improved in order to be effective under a changing climate.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, Jinju; Kim, Kwang-Yul
2016-10-01
Temporal and spatial patterns of anomalous atmospheric circulation and precipitation over the Indo-Pacific region are analyzed in conjunction with the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation as represented by the biennial mode of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). The biennial components of key variables are identified independently of other variability via CSEOF analysis. Then, its impact on the Asian-Australian monsoon is examined. The biennial mode exhibits a seasonally distinctive atmospheric response over the tropical eastern Indo-western Pacific (EIWP) region (90°-150°E, 20°S-20°N). In boreal summer, local meridional circulation is a distinguishing characteristic over the tropical EIWP region, whereas a meridionally expanded branch of intensified zonal circulation develops in austral summer. Temporally varying evolution and distinct timing of SSTA phase transition in the Indian and Pacific Oceans is considered a main factor for this variation of circulation in the tropical EIWP region. The impact of the biennial mode is not the same between the two seasons, with different impacts over ocean areas in Asian monsoon and Australian monsoon regions.
Lagacé, François; Foucher, Delphine; Surette, Céline; Clarisse, Olivier
2018-04-18
To assess radium ( 226 Ra) as a potential indicator of impact in well waters, we investigated its behavior under natural conditions using a case study approach. 226 Ra geochemistry was investigated in 67 private wells of southeastern New Brunswick, Canada, a region targeted for potential shale gas exploitation. Objectives were to i) establish 226 Ra baseline in groundwater; ii) characterize 226 Ra spatial distribution and temporal variability; iii) characterize 226 Ra partitioning between dissolved phase and particulate forms in well waters; and iv) understand the mechanisms controlling 226 Ra mobility under natural environmental settings. 226 Ra levels were generally low (median = 0.061 pg L -1 , or 2.2 mBq L -1 ), stable over time, and randomly distributed. A principal component analysis revealed that concentrations of 226 Ra were controlled by key water geochemistry factors: the highest levels were observed in waters with high hardness, and/or high concentrations of individual alkaline earth elements (i.e. Mg, Ca, Sr, Ba), high concentrations of Mn and Fe, and low pH. As for partitioning, 226 Ra was essentially observed in the dissolved phase (106 ± 19%) suggesting that the geochemical conditions of groundwater in the studied regions are prone to limit 226 Ra sorption, enhancing its mobility. Overall, this study provided comprehensive knowledge on 226 Ra background distribution at local and regional scales. Moreover, it provided a framework to establish 226 Ra baselines and determine which geochemical conditions to monitor in well waters in order to use this radionuclide as an indicator of environmental impact caused by anthropogenic activities (e.g. unconventional shale gas exploitation, uranium mining, or nuclear generating power plants). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rao, M.
2014-12-01
Drought is a natural disaster with serious implications to environmental, social and economic well-being at local, regional and global scales. In its third year, California's drought condition has seriously impacted not just the agricultural sector, but also the natural resources sector including forestry, wildlife, and fisheries. As of July 15, 2014, the National Weather Service drought monitor shows 81% of California in the category of extreme drought. As future predictions of drought and fire severity become more real in California, there is an increased awareness to pursue innovative and cost-effective solutions that are based on silvicultural treatments and controlled burns to improve forest health and reduce the risk of high-severity wildfires. The main goal of this study is to develop a GIS map of the drought-impacted region of northern and central California using remote sensing data. Specifically, based on a geospatial database for the study region, Landsat imagery in conjunction with field and ancillary data will be analyzed using a combination of supervised and unsupervised classification techniques in addition to spectral indices such as the Modified Perpendicular Drought Index (MPDI). This spectral index basically scales the line perpendicular to the soil line defined in the Red-NIR feature space in conjunction with added information about vegetative fraction derived using NDVI. The image processing will be conducted for two time periods (2001 and 2014) to characterize the severity of the drought. In addition to field data, data collected by state agencies including calforests.org will be used in the classification and accuracy assessment procedures. Visual assessment using high-resolution imagery such as NAIP will be used to further refine the spatial maps. The drought severity maps produced will greatly facilitate site-specific planning efforts aimed at implementing resource management decisions.
Differential Impacts of Climate Change on Crops and Agricultural Regions in India
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sharma, A. N.
2015-12-01
As India's farmers and policymakers consider potential adaptation strategies to climate change, some questions loom large: - Which climate variables best explain the variability of crop yields? - How does the vulnerability of crop yields to climate vary regionally? - How are these risks likely to change in the future? While process-based crop modelling has started to answer many of these questions, we believe statistical approaches can complement these in improving our understanding of climate vulnerabilities and appropriate responses. We use yield data collected over three decades for more than ten food crops grown in India along with a variety of statistical approaches to answer the above questions. The ability of climate variables to explain yield variation varies greatly by crop and season, which is expected. Equally important, the ability of models to predict crop yields as well as their coefficients varies greatly by district even for districts which are relatively close to each other and similar in their agricultural practices. We believe these results encourage caution and nuance when making projections about climate impacts on crop yields in the future. Most studies about climate impacts on crop yields focus on a handful of major food crops. By extending our analysis to all the crops with long-term district level data in India as well as two growing seasons we gain a more comprehensive picture. Our results indicate that there is a great deal of variability even at relatively small scales, and that this must be taken into account if projections are to be made useful to policymakers.
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
This study employs remote sensing and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) data to visualize the impact of climate change caused by flooding in the Southern African region in order to assist decision makers’ plans for future occurrences. In pursuit of this objective, this study uses Digital Elevat...
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Dirks, James A.; Gorrissen, Willy J.; Hathaway, John E.
2015-01-01
This paper presents the results of numerous commercial and residential building simulations, with the purpose of examining the impact of climate change on peak and annual building energy consumption over the portion of the Eastern Interconnection (EIC) located in the United States. The climate change scenario considered (IPCC A2 scenario as downscaled from the CASCaDE data set) has changes in mean climate characteristics as well as changes in the frequency and duration of intense weather events. This investigation examines building energy demand for three annual periods representative of climate trends in the CASCaDE data set at the beginning, middle, andmore » end of the century--2004, 2052, and 2089. Simulations were performed using the Building ENergy Demand (BEND) model which is a detailed simulation platform built around EnergyPlus. BEND was developed in collaboration with the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA), a modeling framework designed to simulate the complex interactions among climate, energy, water, and land at decision-relevant spatial scales. Over 26,000 building configurations of different types, sizes, vintages, and, characteristics which represent the population of buildings within the EIC, are modeled across the 3 EIC time zones using the future climate from 100 locations within the target region, resulting in nearly 180,000 spatially relevant simulated demand profiles for each of the 3 years. In this study, the building stock characteristics are held constant based on the 2005 building stock in order to isolate and present results that highlight the impact of the climate signal on commercial and residential energy demand. Results of this analysis compare well with other analyses at their finest level of specificity. This approach, however, provides a heretofore unprecedented level of specificity across multiple spectrums including spatial, temporal, and building characteristics. This capability enables the ability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Holt, Jason; Schrum, Corinna; Cannaby, Heather; Daewel, Ute; Allen, Icarus; Artioli, Yuri; Bopp, Laurent; Butenschon, Momme; Fach, Bettina A.; Harle, James; Pushpadas, Dhanya; Salihoglu, Baris; Wakelin, Sarah
2016-01-01
Regional seas are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas' ecosystems. In this paper we explore the response of five regional sea areas to potential future climate change, acting via atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial vectors. These include the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and are contrasted with a region of the Northeast Atlantic. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within these seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts on: long term changes in elemental budgets, seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton's exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional model systems each using a common global Earth System Model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and additional sensitivity experiments. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas we consider (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change
Assessing the Future Vehicle Fleet Electrification: The Impacts on Regional and Urban Air Quality.
Ke, Wenwei; Zhang, Shaojun; Wu, Ye; Zhao, Bin; Wang, Shuxiao; Hao, Jiming
2017-01-17
There have been significant advancements in electric vehicles (EVs) in recent years. However, the different changing patterns in emissions at upstream and on-road stages and complex atmospheric chemistry of pollutants lead to uncertainty in the air quality benefits from fleet electrification. This study considers the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in China to investigate whether EVs can improve future air quality. The Community Multiscale Air Quality model enhanced by the two-dimensional volatility basis set module is applied to simulate the temporally, spatially, and chemically resolved changes in PM 2.5 concentrations and the changes of other pollutants from fleet electrification. A probable scenario (Scenario EV1) with 20% of private light-duty passenger vehicles and 80% of commercial passenger vehicles (e.g., taxis and buses) electrified can reduce average PM 2.5 concentrations by 0.4 to 1.1 μg m -3 during four representative months for all urban areas of YRD in 2030. The seasonal distinctions of the air quality impacts with respect to concentration reductions in key aerosol components are also identified. For example, the PM 2.5 reduction in January is mainly attributed to the nitrate reduction, whereas the secondary organic aerosol reduction is another essential contributor in August. EVs can also effectively assist in mitigating NO 2 concentrations, which would gain greater reductions for traffic-dense urban areas (e.g., Shanghai). This paper reveals that the fleet electrification in the YRD region could generally play a positive role in improving regional and urban air quality.
The 2010-2015 megadrought in central Chile: impacts on regional hydroclimate and vegetation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Garreaud, René D.; Alvarez-Garreton, Camila; Barichivich, Jonathan; Boisier, Juan Pablo; Christie, Duncan; Galleguillos, Mauricio; LeQuesne, Carlos; McPhee, James; Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio
2017-12-01
Since 2010 an uninterrupted sequence of dry years, with annual rainfall deficits ranging from 25 to 45 %, has prevailed in central Chile (western South America, 30-38° S). Although intense 1- or 2-year droughts are recurrent in this Mediterranean-like region, the ongoing event stands out because of its longevity and large extent. The extraordinary character of the so-called central Chile megadrought (MD) was established against century long historical records and a millennial tree-ring reconstruction of regional precipitation. The largest MD-averaged rainfall relative anomalies occurred in the northern, semi-arid sector of central Chile, but the event was unprecedented to the south of 35° S. ENSO-neutral conditions have prevailed since 2011 (except for the strong El Niño in 2015), contrasting with La Niña conditions that often accompanied past droughts. The precipitation deficit diminished the Andean snowpack and resulted in amplified declines (up to 90 %) of river flow, reservoir volumes and groundwater levels along central Chile and westernmost Argentina. In some semi-arid basins we found a decrease in the runoff-to-rainfall coefficient. A substantial decrease in vegetation productivity occurred in the shrubland-dominated, northern sector, but a mix of greening and browning patches occurred farther south, where irrigated croplands and exotic forest plantations dominate. The ongoing warming in central Chile, making the MD one of the warmest 6-year periods on record, may have also contributed to such complex vegetation changes by increasing potential evapotranspiration. We also report some of the measures taken by the central government to relieve the MD effects and the public perception of this event. The understanding of the nature and biophysical impacts of the MD helps as a foundation for preparedness efforts to confront a dry, warm future regional climate scenario.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fucugauchi, J. U.; Lopez-Loera, H.; Rebolledo-Vieyra, M.
2011-12-01
followed by a low outside, which extend to the north and northwest. The regional broad anomalies crossing the peninsula and shelf are interpreted as crustal structures on the Yucatan block related to pre- and rifting deformation, which include basement uplift. The southward elongated magnetic anomaly and gravity low may correspond to a pre-impact structure. From analysis of residual anomalies, we found no clear indication of secondary craters or multiple impacts.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dierauer, J. R.; Allen, D. M.
2016-12-01
Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in extremes, including daily maximum temperatures, heat waves, and meteorological droughts, which will likely result in shifts in the hydrological drought regime (i.e. the frequency, timing, duration, and severity of drought events). While many studies have used hydrologic models to simulate climate change impacts on water resources, only a small portion of these studies have analyzed impacts on low flows and/or hydrological drought. This study is the first to use a fully coupled groundwater-surface water (gw-sw) model to study climate change impacts on hydrological drought. Generic catchment-scale gw-sw models were created for each of the six major eco-regions in British Columbia using the MIKE-SHE/MIKE-11 modelling code. Daily precipitation and temperature time series downscaled using bias-correction spatial disaggregation for the simulated period of 1950-2100 were obtained from the Pacific Climate Institute Consortium (PCIC). Streamflow and groundwater drought events were identified from the simulated time series for each catchment model using the moving window quantile threshold. The frequency, timing, duration, and severity of drought events were compared between the reference period (1961-2000) and two future time periods (2031-2060, 2071-2100). Results show how hydrological drought regimes across the different British Columbia eco-regions will be impacted by climate change.
Rio's Mountainous Region ("Região Serrana") 2011 Landslides: Impact on Public Mental Health System.
Dell'Aringa, Marcelo; Ranzani, Otavio; Bierens, Joost; Murray, Virginia
2018-01-25
INTRODUCTION In January 2011 landslides and floods followed heavy rain in the Mountainous Region of Rio de Janeiro State ("Região Serrana"), in southeastern Brazil. These events led to the largest disaster registered in Brazilian recent history. Few studies addressed the impacts of this disaster on public health, and we found none addressing the impact on mental health. This study reviewed the consequences of the 2011 disaster in the "Região Serrana", by comparing the demand for public mental health assistance data from time periods before and after the even METHODS We performed an ecologic study, analysing the aggregate data from "Região Serrana" during the period two years before and after the disaster, exporting data from the Brazilian open access public health database. The primary outcome was defined as Mental Health Care Demand, and for that we calculated the number of mental health care visits per month, the proportion of visits due to mental health care and the monthly absolute number of mental health care visits per CAPS - "Centro de Atenção Psicossocial" (Psychosocial Care Centre). For secondary outcomes we evaluated the total number of deaths by any reason, and the total number of hospitalizations. The other health administrative regions of Rio de Janeiro state were used as control group. RESULTS We observed that there was an important increase in the rate of visits due to mental health in the six months after the landslides, from 13,875 to 17,690, reaching its maximum one year after the event totalizing 21,980 visits (Dec 2011). It was also observed that the proportion of visits due to mental health disorders increased after the event in the "Região Serrana", as well as the number of mental health care visits per CAPS. DISCUSSION In conclusion, we observed that the 2011 Landslides in "Região Serrana" led to a sustained higher burden to public mental health care. There was an increase in the demand for mental health visits, and the
Brainstem Encoding of Aided Speech in Hearing Aid Users with Cochlear Dead Region(s).
Hassaan, Mohammad Ramadan; Ibraheem, Ola Abdallah; Galhom, Dalia Helal
2016-07-01
Neural encoding of speech begins with the analysis of the signal as a whole broken down into its sinusoidal components in the cochlea, which has to be conserved up to the higher auditory centers. Some of these components target the dead regions of the cochlea causing little or no excitation. Measuring aided speech-evoked auditory brainstem response elicited by speech stimuli with different spectral maxima can give insight into the brainstem encoding of aided speech with spectral maxima at these dead regions. This research aims to study the impact of dead regions of the cochlea on speech processing at the brainstem level after a long period of hearing aid use. This study comprised 30 ears without dead regions and 46 ears with dead regions at low, mid, or high frequencies. For all ears, we measured the aided speech-evoked auditory brainstem response using speech stimuli of low, mid, and high spectral maxima. Aided speech-evoked auditory brainstem response was producible in all subjects. Responses evoked by stimuli with spectral maxima at dead regions had longer latencies and smaller amplitudes when compared with the control group or the responses of other stimuli. The presence of cochlear dead regions affects brainstem encoding of speech with spectral maxima perpendicular to these regions. Brainstem neuroplasticity and the extrinsic redundancy of speech can minimize the impact of dead regions in chronic hearing aid users.
Impact of the Agulhas Return Current on the glacial Subantarctic region in the South Indian Ocean
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ikehara, M.; Crosta, X.; Manoj, M. C.
2017-12-01
The Southern Ocean has played an important role in the evolution of the global climate system. The Southern Ocean circulation is dominated by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), the world's longest and largest current system. Sea ice coverage on sea surface strongly affects the climate of the Southern Hemisphere through its impacts on the energy and gas budget, on the atmospheric circulation, on the hydrological cycle, and on the biological productivity. The Agulhas Return Current (ARC) originates from the Agulhas Current, the major western boundary current in the Indian Ocean, and transports heat from subtropical to subantarctic region. It's thought that the Agulhas leakage from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic was reduced for the last glacial due to a northward shift of the westerlies and ACC, however, there are still unknown yet how the ARC was responded to the reduced Agulhas leakage. A piston core DCR-1PC was collected from the Del Caño Rise (46°S, 44°E, 2632m), Indian sector of the Southern Ocean. Core site located in the Subantarctic region between the Subtropical Front (STF) and Subantarctic Front (SAF). Age model of the core was established by radiocarbon dating of planktic foraminifer Globorotalia bulloides and oxygen isotope stratigraphy of benthic foraminifers Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi and Melonis bareelanus. Sediment of DCR-1PC show the cyclic changes of diatom/carbonate ooze sedimentation corresponding to Southern Ocean fronts' migrations on glacial-interglacial timescales. Records of ice-rafted debris (IRD) and oxygen isotope in planktic foraminfer G. bulloides suggest that the melting of sea ice was significantly increased during the last glacial maximum (LGM) in the Subantarctic surface water. Diatom assemblage based summer SST also shows the relative warmer condition in the Subantarctic during the LGM. These results might be explained by the strong influence of the Agulhas Return Current during the LGM in the Subantarctic. The reduced
The impact of flooding on people living with HIV: a case study from the Ohangwena Region, Namibia.
Anthonj, Carmen; Nkongolo, Odon T; Schmitz, Peter; Hango, Johannes N; Kistemann, Thomas
2015-01-01
Floods are a disaster situation for all affected populations and especially for vulnerable groups within communities such as children, orphans, women, and people with chronic diseases such as HIV and AIDS. They need functioning health care, sanitation and hygiene, safe water, and healthy food supply, and are critically dependent on their social care and support networks. A study carried out in the Ohangwena region, Namibia, where HIV prevalence is high and extensive flooding frequently occurs, aims to provide a deeper understanding of the impact that flooding has on people living with HIV (PLWHIV) as well as on HIV service providers in the region. The qualitative research applying grounded theory included semi-structured interviews with PLWHIV, focus group discussions with HIV service providers, and a national feedback meeting. The findings were interpreted using the sustainable livelihoods framework, the natural hazard research approach, and health behaviour theories. The study reveals that flooding poses major problems to PLWHIV in terms of their everyday lives, affecting livelihoods, work, income, and living conditions. The factors threatening them under normal conditions - poverty, malnutrition, unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene, limited access to health facilities, a weak health status, and stigma - are intensified by flood-related breakdown of infrastructure, insecurity, malnutrition, and diseases evolving over the course of a flood. A potential dual risk exists for their health: the increased risk both of infection and disease due to the inaccessibility of health services and antiretroviral treatment. A HIV and Flooding Framework was developed to display the results. This study demonstrates that vulnerabilities and health risks of PLWHIV will increase in a disaster situation like flooding if access to HIV prevention, treatment, care and support are not addressed and ensured. The findings and the HIV and Flooding Framework are not specific to Ohangwena and
The impact of flooding on people living with HIV: a case study from the Ohangwena Region, Namibia
Anthonj, Carmen; Nkongolo, Odon T.; Schmitz, Peter; Hango, Johannes N.; Kistemann, Thomas
2015-01-01
Background Floods are a disaster situation for all affected populations and especially for vulnerable groups within communities such as children, orphans, women, and people with chronic diseases such as HIV and AIDS. They need functioning health care, sanitation and hygiene, safe water, and healthy food supply, and are critically dependent on their social care and support networks. A study carried out in the Ohangwena region, Namibia, where HIV prevalence is high and extensive flooding frequently occurs, aims to provide a deeper understanding of the impact that flooding has on people living with HIV (PLWHIV) as well as on HIV service providers in the region. Design The qualitative research applying grounded theory included semi-structured interviews with PLWHIV, focus group discussions with HIV service providers, and a national feedback meeting. The findings were interpreted using the sustainable livelihoods framework, the natural hazard research approach, and health behaviour theories. Results The study reveals that flooding poses major problems to PLWHIV in terms of their everyday lives, affecting livelihoods, work, income, and living conditions. The factors threatening them under normal conditions – poverty, malnutrition, unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene, limited access to health facilities, a weak health status, and stigma – are intensified by flood-related breakdown of infrastructure, insecurity, malnutrition, and diseases evolving over the course of a flood. A potential dual risk exists for their health: the increased risk both of infection and disease due to the inaccessibility of health services and antiretroviral treatment. A HIV and Flooding Framework was developed to display the results. Conclusions This study demonstrates that vulnerabilities and health risks of PLWHIV will increase in a disaster situation like flooding if access to HIV prevention, treatment, care and support are not addressed and ensured. The findings and the HIV and Flooding
McAuliffe, Gary N; Taylor, Susan L; Drinković, Dragana; Roberts, Sally A; Wilson, Elizabeth M; Best, Emma J
2018-01-01
In July 2014, New Zealand introduced universal infant vaccination with RotaTeq (Merk & Co.) administered as 3 doses at 6 weeks, 3 and 5 months of age. We sought to assess the impact of rotavirus vaccination on gastroenteritis (GE) hospitalizations in the greater Auckland region and analyze changes in rotavirus testing in the period around vaccine introduction. Hospitalizations, laboratory testing rates and methods were compared between the pre-vaccine period (2009-2013), post-vaccine period (January 2015 to December 2015) and year of vaccine introduction (2014). There was a 68% decline in rotavirus hospitalizations of children <5 years of age after vaccine introduction (from 258/100,000 to 83/100,000) and a 17% decline in all-cause gastroenteritis admissions (from 1815/100,000 to 1293/100,000). Reductions were also seen in pediatric groups too old to have received vaccine. Despite these changes, rotavirus testing rates in our region remained static in the year after vaccine introduction compared with the 2 prior years, and after vaccine introduction, we observed a high rate of false positives 19/58 (33%) in patients with reactive rotavirus tests. Rotavirus vaccine has had a significant early impact on gastroenteritis hospitalizations for children in the Auckland region. However, continued rotavirus testing at pre-vaccine rates risks generating false positive results. Laboratories and clinicians should consider reviewing their testing algorithms before vaccine introduction.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
van Zelm, Rosalie; Preiss, Philipp; van Goethem, Thomas; Van Dingenen, Rita; Huijbregts, Mark
2016-06-01
We developed regionalized characterization factors (CFs) for human health damage from particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone, and for damage to vegetation from ozone, at the global scale. These factors can be used in the impact assessment phase of an environmental life cycle assessment. CFs express the overall damage of a certain pollutant per unit of emission of a precursor, i.e. primary PM2.5, nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia (NH3), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs). The global chemical transport model TM5 was used to calculate intake fractions of PM2.5 and ozone for 56 world regions covering the whole globe. Furthermore, region-specific effect and damage factors were derived, using mortality rates, background concentrations and years of life lost. The emission-weighted world average CF for primary PM2.5 emissions is 629 yr kton-1, varying up to 3 orders of magnitude over the regions. Larger CFs were obtained for emissions in central Asia and Europe, and smaller factors in Australia and South America. The world average CFs for PM2.5 from secondary aerosols, i.e. NOx, NH3, and SO2, is 67.2 to 183.4 yr kton-1. We found that the CFs for ozone human health damage are 2-4 orders of magnitude lower compared to the CFs for damage due to primary PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursor emissions. Human health damage due to the priority air pollutants considered in this study was 1.7·10-2 yr capita-1 worldwide in year 2010, with primary PM2.5 emissions as the main contributor (62%). The emission-weighted world average CF for ecosystem damage due to ozone was 2.5 km2 yr kton-1 for NMVOCs and 8.7 m2 yr kg-1 for NOx emissions, varying 2-3 orders of magnitude over the regions. Ecosystem damage due to the priority air pollutants considered in this study was 1.6·10-4 km2 capita-1 worldwide in 2010, with NOx as the main contributor (72%). The spatial range in CFs stresses the importance of including spatial variation in life cycle impact assessment of
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gandolfi, S.; Poluzzi, L.; Tavasci, L.
2012-12-01
Precise Point Positioning (PPP) is one of the possible approaches for GNSS data processing. As known this technique is faster and more flexible compared to the others which are based on a differenced approach and constitute a reliable methods for accurate positioning of remote GNSS stations, even in some remote area such as Antarctica. Until few years ago one of the major limits of the method was the impossibility to resolve the ambiguity as integer but nowadays many methods are available to resolve this aspect. The first software package permitting a PPP solution was the GIPSY OASIS realized, developed and maintained by JPL (NASA). JPL produce also orbits and files ready to be used with GIPSY. Recently, using these products came possible to resolve ambiguities improving the stability of solutions. PPP permit to estimate position into the reference frame of the orbits (IGS) and when coordinate in others reference frames, such al ITRF, are needed is necessary to apply a transformation. Within his products JPL offer, for each day, a global 7 parameter transformation that permit to locate the survey into the ITRF RF. In some cases it's also possible to create a costumed process and obtain analogous parameters using local/regional reference network of stations which coordinates are available also in the desired reference frame. In this work some tests on accuracy has been carried out comparing different PPP solutions obtained using the same software packages (GIPSY) but considering the ambiguity resolution, the global and regional transformation parameters. In particular two test area have been considered, first one located in Antarctica and the second one in Italy. Aim of the work is the evaluation of the impact of ambiguity resolution and the use of local/regional transformation parameter in the final solutions. Tests shown how the ambiguity resolution improve the precision, especially in the EAST component with a scattering reduction about 8%. And the use of global
Faour-Klingbeil, Dima; Todd, Ewen C D
2018-02-01
Climate change is one of the major challenges of our time that pose unprecedented stress to the environment and threats to human health. The global impacts of climate change are vast, spanning from extreme weather events to changes in patterns and distribution of infectious diseases. Lack of rainfall associated with higher temperatures has a direct influence on agricultural production. This is compounded by a growing population forecasted to expand further with increasing needs for food and water. All this has led to the increasing use of wastewater worldwide. In this review, we more specifically discuss the use of untreated wastewater in agriculture in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, the most arid region in the world. This presents challenges for agriculture with respect to water availability and increasing wastewater use in agri-food chain. This in turn exerts pressures on the safety of food raised from such irrigated crops. Current practices in the MENA region indicate that ineffective water resource management, lack of water quality policies, and slow-paced wastewater management strategies continue to contribute to a decline in water resources and an increased unplanned use of black and graywater in agriculture. Radical actions are needed in the region to improve water and wastewater management to adapt to these impacts. In this regard, the 2006 WHO guidelines for the use of wastewater contain recommendations for the most effective solutions. They provide a step-by-step guide for series of appropriate health protection measures for microbial reduction targets of 6 log units for viral, bacterial, and protozoan pathogens, but these need to be combined with new varieties of crops that are drought and pest resistant. More research into economic local treatment procedures for wastewater in the region is warranted.
Leistritz, F Larry; Leitch, Jay A; Bangsund, Dean A
2002-12-01
Devils Lake, located in a closed basin in northeastern North Dakota has over a century-long history of highly fluctuating water levels. The lake has risen nearly 25 feet (7.7 m) since 1993, more than doubling its surface area. Rising water levels have affected rural lands, transportation routes, and communities near the lake. In response to rising lake levels, Federal, state and local agencies have adopted a three-part approach to flood damage reduction, consisting of (1) upper basin water management to reduce the amount of water reaching the lake, (2) protection for structures and infrastructure if the lake continues to rise, and (3) developing an emergency outlet to release some lake water. The purpose of this study was to provide information about the net regional economic effects of a proposed emergency outlet for Devils Lake. An input-output model was used to estimate the regional economic effects of the outlet, under two scenarios: (1) the most likely future situation (MLS) and (2) a best case situation (BCS) (i.e., where the benefits from the outlet would be greatest), albeit an unlikely one. Regional economic effects of the outlet include effects on transportation (road and railroad construction), agriculture (land kept in production, returned to production sooner, or kept in production longer), residential relocations, and outlet construction expenditures. Effects are measured as changes in gross business volume (gross receipts) for various sectors, secondary employment, and local tax collections. The net regional economic effects of the proposed outlet would be relatively small, and consideration of these economic impacts would not strengthen the case for an outlet.
Magma ocean formation due to giant impacts
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tonks, W. B.; Melosh, H. J.
1992-01-01
The effect of giant impacts on the initial chemical and thermal states of the terrestrial planets is just now being explored. A large high speed impact creates an approximately hemispherical melt region with a radius that depends on the projectile's radius and impact speed. It is shown that giant impacts on large planets can create large, intact melt regions containing melt volumes up to a few times the volume of the projectile. These large melt regions are not created on asteroid sized bodies. If extruded to the surface, these regions contain enough melt to create a magma ocean of considerable depth, depending on the impact speed, projectile radius, and gravity of the target planet.
A Sensitivity Analysis of the Impact of Rain on Regional and Global Sea-Air Fluxes of CO2
Shutler, J. D.; Land, P. E.; Woolf, D. K.; Quartly, G. D.
2016-01-01
The global oceans are considered a major sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Rain is known to alter the physical and chemical conditions at the sea surface, and thus influence the transfer of CO2 between the ocean and atmosphere. It can influence gas exchange through enhanced gas transfer velocity, the direct export of carbon from the atmosphere to the ocean, by altering the sea skin temperature, and through surface layer dilution. However, to date, very few studies quantifying these effects on global net sea-air fluxes exist. Here, we include terms for the enhanced gas transfer velocity and the direct export of carbon in calculations of the global net sea-air fluxes, using a 7-year time series of monthly global climate quality satellite remote sensing observations, model and in-situ data. The use of a non-linear relationship between the effects of rain and wind significantly reduces the estimated impact of rain-induced surface turbulence on the rate of sea-air gas transfer, when compared to a linear relationship. Nevertheless, globally, the rain enhanced gas transfer and rain induced direct export increase the estimated annual oceanic integrated net sink of CO2 by up to 6%. Regionally, the variations can be larger, with rain increasing the estimated annual net sink in the Pacific Ocean by up to 15% and altering monthly net flux by > ± 50%. Based on these analyses, the impacts of rain should be included in the uncertainty analysis of studies that estimate net sea-air fluxes of CO2 as the rain can have a considerable impact, dependent upon the region and timescale. PMID:27673683
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Reisner, Jon; D'Angelo, Gennaro; Koo, Eunmo; Even, Wesley; Hecht, Matthew; Hunke, Elizabeth; Comeau, Darin; Bos, Randall; Cooley, James
2018-03-01
We present a multiscale study examining the impact of a regional exchange of nuclear weapons on global climate. Our models investigate multiple phases of the effects of nuclear weapons usage, including growth and rise of the nuclear fireball, ignition and spread of the induced firestorm, and comprehensive Earth system modeling of the oceans, land, ice, and atmosphere. This study follows from the scenario originally envisioned by Robock, Oman, Stenchikov, et al. (2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-2003-2007), based on the analysis of Toon et al. (2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-1973-2007), which assumes a regional exchange between India and Pakistan of fifty 15 kt weapons detonated by each side. We expand this scenario by modeling the processes that lead to production of black carbon, in order to refine the black carbon forcing estimates of these previous studies. When the Earth system model is initiated with 5 × 109 kg of black carbon in the upper troposphere (approximately from 9 to 13 km), the impact on climate variables such as global temperature and precipitation in our simulations is similar to that predicted by previously published work. However, while our thorough simulations of the firestorm produce about 3.7 × 109 kg of black carbon, we find that the vast majority of the black carbon never reaches an altitude above weather systems (approximately 12 km). Therefore, our Earth system model simulations conducted with model-informed atmospheric distributions of black carbon produce significantly lower global climatic impacts than assessed in prior studies, as the carbon at lower altitudes is more quickly removed from the atmosphere. In addition, our model ensembles indicate that statistically significant effects on global surface temperatures are limited to the first 5 years and are much smaller in magnitude than those shown in earlier works. None of the simulations produced a nuclear winter effect. We find that the effects on global surface temperatures
Reisner, Jon Michael; D'Angelo, Gennaro; Koo, Eunmo; ...
2018-02-13
In this paper, we present a multi-scale study examining the impact of a regional exchange of nuclear weapons on global climate. Our models investigate multiple phases of the effects of nuclear weapons usage, including growth and rise of the nuclear fireball, ignition and spread of the induced firestorm, and comprehensive Earth system modeling of the oceans, land, ice, and atmosphere. This study follows from the scenario originally envisioned by Robock et al. (2007a), based on the analysis of Toon et al. (2007), which assumes a regional exchange between India and Pakistan of fifty 15-kiloton weapons detonated by each side. Wemore » expand this scenario by modeling the processes that lead to production of black carbon, in order to refine the black carbon forcing estimates of these previous studies. When the Earth system model is initiated with 5 × 10 9 kg of black carbon in the upper troposphere (approximately 9 to 13 km), the impact on climate variables such as global temperature and precipitation in our simulations is similar to that predicted by previously published work. However, while our thorough simulations of the firestorm produce about 3.7 × 10 9 kg of black carbon, we find that the vast majority of the black carbon never reaches an altitude above weather systems (approximately 12 km). Therefore, our Earth system model simulations conducted with model-informed atmospheric distributions of black carbon produce significantly lower global climatic impacts than assessed in prior studies, as the carbon at lower altitudes is more quickly removed from the atmosphere. In addition, our model ensembles indicate that statistically significant effects on global surface temperatures are limited to the first 5 years and are much smaller in magnitude than those shown in earlier works. None of the simulations produced a nuclear winter effect. We find that the effects on global surface temperatures are not uniform and are concentrated primarily around the highest arctic
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Reisner, Jon Michael; D'Angelo, Gennaro; Koo, Eunmo
In this paper, we present a multi-scale study examining the impact of a regional exchange of nuclear weapons on global climate. Our models investigate multiple phases of the effects of nuclear weapons usage, including growth and rise of the nuclear fireball, ignition and spread of the induced firestorm, and comprehensive Earth system modeling of the oceans, land, ice, and atmosphere. This study follows from the scenario originally envisioned by Robock et al. (2007a), based on the analysis of Toon et al. (2007), which assumes a regional exchange between India and Pakistan of fifty 15-kiloton weapons detonated by each side. Wemore » expand this scenario by modeling the processes that lead to production of black carbon, in order to refine the black carbon forcing estimates of these previous studies. When the Earth system model is initiated with 5 × 10 9 kg of black carbon in the upper troposphere (approximately 9 to 13 km), the impact on climate variables such as global temperature and precipitation in our simulations is similar to that predicted by previously published work. However, while our thorough simulations of the firestorm produce about 3.7 × 10 9 kg of black carbon, we find that the vast majority of the black carbon never reaches an altitude above weather systems (approximately 12 km). Therefore, our Earth system model simulations conducted with model-informed atmospheric distributions of black carbon produce significantly lower global climatic impacts than assessed in prior studies, as the carbon at lower altitudes is more quickly removed from the atmosphere. In addition, our model ensembles indicate that statistically significant effects on global surface temperatures are limited to the first 5 years and are much smaller in magnitude than those shown in earlier works. None of the simulations produced a nuclear winter effect. We find that the effects on global surface temperatures are not uniform and are concentrated primarily around the highest arctic
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, J.; Wang, P.; Han, H.; Schmit, T. J.
2014-12-01
JPSS and GOES-R observations play important role in numerical weather prediction (NWP). However, how to best represent the information from satellite observations and how to get value added information from these satellite data into regional NWP models, including both radiance and derived products, still need investigations. In order to enhance the applications of JPSS and GOES-R data in regional NWP for high impact weather forecasts, scientists from Cooperative Institute of Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) at University of Wisconsin-Madison have recently developed a near realtime regional Satellite Data Assimilation system for Tropical storm forecasts (SDAT) (http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/sdat). The system consists of the community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) assimilation system and the advanced Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model. In addition to assimilate GOES, AMSUA/AMSUB, HIRS, MHS, ATMS (Suomi-NPP), AIRS and IASI radiances, the SDAT is also able to assimilate satellite-derived products such as hyperspectral IR retrieved temperature and moisture profiles, total precipitable water (TPW), GOES Sounder (and future GOES-R) layer precipitable water (LPW) and GOES Imager atmospheric motion vector (AMV) products into the system. Real time forecasted GOES infrared (IR) images simulated from SDAT output have also been part of the SDAT system for applications and forecast evaluations. To set up the system parameters, a series of experiments have been carried out to test the impacts of different initialization schemes, including different background error matrix, different NCEP global model date sets, and different WRF model horizontal resolutions. Using SDAT as a research testbed, researches have been conducted for different satellite data impacts study, as well as different techniques for handling clouds in radiance assimilation. Since the fall of 2013, the SDAT system has been running in near real time. The results from historical cases and 2014
Impact of regional haze towards air quality in Malaysia: A review
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Latif, Mohd Talib; Othman, Murnira; Idris, Nurfathehah; Juneng, Liew; Abdullah, Ahmad Makmom; Hamzah, Wan Portia; Khan, Md Firoz; Nik Sulaiman, Nik Meriam; Jewaratnam, Jegalakshimi; Aghamohammadi, Nasrin; Sahani, Mazrura; Xiang, Chung Jing; Ahamad, Fatimah; Amil, Norhaniza; Darus, Mashitah; Varkkey, Helena; Tangang, Fredolin; Jaafar, Abu Bakar
2018-03-01
Haze is a common phenomenon afflicting Southeast Asia (SEA), including Malaysia, and has occurred almost every year within the last few decades. Haze is associated with high level of air pollutants; it reduces visibility and affects human health in the affected SEA countries. This manuscript aims to review the potential origin, chemical compositions, impacts and mitigation strategies of haze in Malaysia. "Slash and burn" agricultural activities, deforestation and oil palm plantations on peat areas, particularly in Sumatra and Kalimantan, Indonesia were identified as the contributing factors to high intensity combustions that results in transboundary haze in Malaysia. During the southwest monsoon (June to September), the equatorial SEA region experiences a dry season and thus an elevated number of fire events. The prevailing southerly and south-westerly winds allow the cross-boundary transportation of pollutants from the burning areas in Sumatra and Kalimantan in Indonesia, to Peninsular Malaysia and Malaysian Borneo, respectively. The dry periods caused by the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prolong the duration of poor air quality. The size range of particulate matter (PM) in haze samples indicates that haze is dominated by fine particles. Secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA, such as SO42- and NH4+) and organic substances (such as levoglucosan, LG) were the main composition of PM during haze episodes. Local vehicular emissions and industrial activities also contribute to the amount of pollutants and can introduce toxic material such as polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Haze episodes have contributed to increasing hospital visits for treatments related to chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, upper respiratory infections, asthma and rhinitis. Respiratory mortality increased 19% due to haze episodes. Children and senior citizens are more likely to suffer the health impacts of haze. The inpatient cost alone from haze episodes was estimated at around USD 91
Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Regional Air Quality and Public Health over China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hong, C.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, Y.; He, K.
2017-12-01
Future climate change would affect public health through changing air quality. Climate extremes and poor weather conditions are likely to occur at a higher frequency in China under a changing climate, but the air pollution-related health impacts due to future climate change remain unclear. Here the potential impacts of future climate change on regional air quality and public health over China is projected using a coupling of climate, air quality and epidemiological models. We present the first assessment of China's future air quality in a changing climate under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario using the dynamical downscaling technique. In RCP4.5 scenario, we estimate that climate change from 2006-2010 to 2046-2050 is likely to adversely affect air quality covering more than 86% of population and 55% of land area in China, causing an average increase of 3% in O3 and PM2.5 concentrations, which are found to be associated with the warmer climate and the more stable atmosphere. Our estimate of air pollution-related mortality due to climate change in 2050 is 26,000 people per year in China. Of which, the PM2.5-related mortality is 18,700 people per year, and the O3-related mortality is 7,300 people per year. The climate-induced air pollution and health impacts vary spatially. The climate impacts are even more pronounced on the urban areas where is densely populated and polluted. 90% of the health loss is concentrated in 20% of land areas in China. We use a simple statistical analysis method to quantify the contributions of climate extremes and find more intense climate extremes play an important role in climate-induced air pollution-related health impacts. Our results indicate that global climate change will likely alter the level of pollutant management required to meet future air quality targets as well as the efforts to protect public health in China.
Soil contamination in the impact zone of mining enterprises in the Bashkir Transural region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Opekunova, M. G.; Somov, V. V.; Papyan, E. E.
2017-06-01
The results of long-term studies of the contents of bulk forms of metals (Cu, Zn, Fe, Ni, Pb, Mn, Co, and Cd) and their mobile compounds in soils of background and human-disturbed areas within the Krasnoural'sk-Sibai-Gai copper-zinc and Baimak-Buribai mixed copper mineralization zones in the Bashkir Transural region are discussed. It is shown that soils of the region are characterized by abnormally high natural total contents of heavy metals (HMs) typomorphic for ore mineralization: Cu, Zn, and Fe for the Sibai province and Cu, Zn, and Ni for the Baimak province. In the case of a shallow depth of the ores, the concentrations of HMs in the soils are close to or higher than the tentative permissible concentration values. The concentrations of mobile HM compounds in soils of background areas and their percentage in the total HM content strongly vary from year to year in dependence on weather conditions, position in the soil catenas, species composition of vegetation, and distance from the source of technogenic contamination. The high natural variability in the content of mobile HM compounds in soils complicates the reliable determination of the regional geochemical background and necessitates annual estimation of background parameters for the purposes of the ecological monitoring of soils. The bulk content of Cu and Zn content in soils near mining enterprises exceeds the regional geochemical background values by 2-12 times and the tentative permissible concentrations of these metals by 2-4 times. Anthropogenic contamination results in a sharp rise in the content of mobile HM compounds in soils. Their highest concentrations exceed the maximum permissible concentrations by 26 times for Cu, 18 times for Zn, and 2 times for Pb. Soil contamination in the impact zone of mining enterprises is extremely dangerous or dangerous. However, because of the high temporal variability in the migration and accumulation of HMs in the soils, the recent decline in the ore mining
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Geneletti, Davide, E-mail: davide.geneletti@ing.unitn.i; Dawa, Dorje, E-mail: dorje.dawa@gmail.co
Mountain tourism in developing countries is becoming a growing environmental concern due to extreme seasonality, lack of suitable infrastructures and planning, and interference with fragile ecosystems and protected areas. This paper presents a study devoted to assess the adverse environmental impacts of tourism, and in particular of trekking-related activities, in Ladakh, Indian Himalaya. The proposed approach is based on the use of Geographical Information System (GIS) modeling and remote sensing imageries to cope with the lack of data that affect the region. First, stressors associated with trekking, and environmental receptors potentially affected were identified. Subsequently, a baseline study on stressorsmore » (trail use, waste dumping, camping, pack animal grazing and off-road driving) and receptors (soil, water, wildlife, vegetation) was conducted through field work, data collection, and data processing supported by GIS. Finally, impacts were modeled by considering the intensity of the stressors, and the vulnerability and the value of the receptors. The results were spatially aggregated into watershed units, and combined to generate composite impact maps. The study concluded that the most affected watersheds are located in the central and southeastern part of Ladakh, along some of the most visited trails and within the Hemis and the Tsokar Tsomoriri National parks. The main objective of the study was to understand patterns of tourism-induced environmental degradation, so as to support mitigation interventions, as well as the development of suitable tourism policies.« less
Locating the LCROSS Impact Craters
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Marshall, William; Shirley, Mark; Moratto, Zachary; Colaprete, Anthony; Neumann, Gregory A.; Smith, David E.; Hensley, Scott; Wilson, Barbara; Slade, Martin; Kennedy, Brian;
2012-01-01
The Lunar CRater Observations and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) mission impacted a spent Centaur rocket stage into a permanently shadowed region near the lunar south pole. The Sheperding Spacecraft (SSC) separated approx. 9 hours before impact and performed a small braking maneuver in order to observe the Centaur impact plume, looking for evidence of water and other volatiles, before impacting itself. This paper describes the registration of imagery of the LCROSS impact region from the mid- and near-infrared cameras onboard the SSC, as well as from the Goldstone radar. We compare the Centaur impact features, positively identified in the first two, and with a consistent feature in the third, which are interpreted as a 20 m diameter crater surrounded by a 160 m diameter ejecta region. The images are registered to Lunar Reconnaisance Orbiter (LRO) topographical data which allows determination of the impact location. This location is compared with the impact location derived from ground-based tracking and propagation of the spacecraft's trajectory and with locations derived from two hybrid imagery/trajectory methods. The four methods give a weighted average Centaur impact location of -84.6796 deg, -48.7093 deg, with a 1s uncertainty of 115 m along latitude, and 44 m along longitude, just 146 m from the target impact site. Meanwhile, the trajectory-derived SSC impact location is -84.719 deg, -49.61 deg, with a 1 alpha uncertainty of 3 m along the Earth vector and 75 m orthogonal to that, 766 m from the target location and 2.803 km south-west of the Centaur impact. We also detail the Centaur impact angle and SSC instrument pointing errors. Six high-level LCROSS mission requirements are shown to be met by wide margins. We hope that these results facilitate further analyses of the LCROSS experiment data and follow-up observations of the impact region
Regional variation in physician adoption of antipsychotics: Impact on US Medicare expenditures
Donohue, Julie M.; Normand, Sharon-Lise T.; Horvitz-Lennon, Marcela; Men, Aiju; Berndt, Ernst R.; Huskamp, Haiden A.
2016-01-01
Background Regional variation in US Medicare prescription drug spending is driven by higher prescribing of costly brand-name drugs in some regions. This variation likely arises from differences in the speed of diffusion of newly-approved medications. Second-generation antipsychotics were widely adopted for treatment of severe mental illness and for several off-label uses. Rapid diffusion of new psychiatric drugs likely increases drug spending but its relationship to non-drug spending is unclear. The impact of antipsychotic diffusion on drug and medical spending is of great interest to public payers like Medicare, which finance a majority of mental health spending in the U.S. Aims We examine the association between physician adoption of new antipsychotics and antipsychotic spending and non-drug medical spending among disabled and elderly Medicare enrollees. Methods We linked physician-level data on antipsychotic prescribing from an all-payer dataset (IMS Health's Xponent™) to patient-level data from Medicare. Our physician sample included 16,932 U.S. psychiatrists and primary care providers with ≥10 antipsychotic prescriptions per year from 1997-2011. We constructed a measure of physician adoption of 3 antipsychotics introduced during this period (quetiapine, ziprasidone and aripiprazole) by estimating a shared frailty model of the time to first prescription for each drug. We then assigned physicians to one of 306 U.S. hospital referral regions (HRRs) and measured the average propensity to adopt per region. Using 2010 data for a random sample of 1.6 million Medicare beneficiaries, we identified 138,680 antipsychotic users. A generalized linear model with gamma distribution and log link was used to estimate the effect of region-level adoption propensity on beneficiary-level antipsychotic spending and non-drug medical spending adjusting for patient demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, health status, eligibility category, and whether the antipsychotic was
Drought monitoring in the Brazilian Semiarid region.
Alvalá, Regina C S; Cunha, Ana Paula M A; Brito, Sheila S B; Seluchi, Marcelo E; Marengo, José A; Moraes, Osvaldo L L; Carvalho, Magog A
2017-10-16
Drought is a natural and recurrent phenomenon. It is considered 'a natural disaster' whenever it occurs in an intensive manner in highly populated regions, resulting in significant damage (material and human) and loss (socioeconomic). This paper presents the efforts developed to monitor the impact of drought in the semiarid region of Northeast Brazil. In this scope, information from different sources is compiled to support the evaluation and identification of impacted municipalities, with the main objective of supporting emergency actions to mitigate their impact. In the semiarid region of Brazil there are frequent occurrences of dry periods during the rainy season, which, depending on the intensity and duration, can cause significant damage to family-farmed crops, with a farming system characterized by low productivity indices. However, rain-fed agriculture has great economic expression and high social importance due to the region is densely occupied, and contributes to the establishment of communities in the countryside. Specifically, in the present study, the methodology adopted to monitor the impact of agricultural droughts, including an analysis of the hydrological year 2015-2016, is presented, considering different water stress indicators for the identification of the affected municipalities and assessment of the methods and tools developed.
Aguirre, J; Borgeat, A; Trachsel, T; Cobo Del Prado, I; De Andrés, J; Bühler, P
2014-02-01
Ischemic brain damage has been reported in healthy patients after beach chair position for surgery due to cerebral hypoperfusion. Near-infrared spectroscopy has been described as a non-invasive, continuous method to monitor cerebral oxygen saturation. However, its impact on neurobehavioral outcome comparing different anesthesia regimens has been poorly described. In this prospective, assessor-blinded study, 90 patients undergoing shoulder surgery in beach chair position following general (G-group, n=45) or regional anesthesia (R-group; n=45) were enrolled to assess the prevalence of cerebral desaturation events comparing anesthesia regimens and their impact on neurobehavioral and neurological outcome. Anesthesiologists were blinded to regional cerebral oxygen saturation values. Baseline data assessed the day before surgery included neurological and neurobehavioral tests, which were repeated the day after surgery. The baseline data for regional cerebral oxygen saturation/bispectral index and invasive blood pressure both at heart and auditory meatus levels were taken prior to anesthesia, 5 min after induction of anesthesia, 5 min after beach chair positioning, after skin incision and thereafter all 20 min until discharge. Patients in the R-group showed significantly less cerebral desaturation events (p<0.001), drops in regional cerebral oxygen saturation values (p<0.001), significantly better neurobehavioral test results the day after surgery (p<0.001) and showed a greater hemodynamic stability in the beach chair position compared to patients in the G-group. The incidence of regional cerebral oxygen desaturations seems to influence the neurobehavioral outcome. Regional anesthesia offers more stable cardiovascular conditions for shoulder surgery in beach chair position influencing neurobehavioral test results at 24h. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Anestesiología, Reanimación y Terapéutica del Dolor. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.
Brainstem Encoding of Aided Speech in Hearing Aid Users with Cochlear Dead Region(s)
Hassaan, Mohammad Ramadan; Ibraheem, Ola Abdallah; Galhom, Dalia Helal
2016-01-01
Introduction Neural encoding of speech begins with the analysis of the signal as a whole broken down into its sinusoidal components in the cochlea, which has to be conserved up to the higher auditory centers. Some of these components target the dead regions of the cochlea causing little or no excitation. Measuring aided speech-evoked auditory brainstem response elicited by speech stimuli with different spectral maxima can give insight into the brainstem encoding of aided speech with spectral maxima at these dead regions. Objective This research aims to study the impact of dead regions of the cochlea on speech processing at the brainstem level after a long period of hearing aid use. Methods This study comprised 30 ears without dead regions and 46 ears with dead regions at low, mid, or high frequencies. For all ears, we measured the aided speech-evoked auditory brainstem response using speech stimuli of low, mid, and high spectral maxima. Results Aided speech-evoked auditory brainstem response was producible in all subjects. Responses evoked by stimuli with spectral maxima at dead regions had longer latencies and smaller amplitudes when compared with the control group or the responses of other stimuli. Conclusion The presence of cochlear dead regions affects brainstem encoding of speech with spectral maxima perpendicular to these regions. Brainstem neuroplasticity and the extrinsic redundancy of speech can minimize the impact of dead regions in chronic hearing aid users. PMID:27413404
Impact of spectral nudging on regional climate simulation over CORDEX East Asia using WRF
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tang, Jianping; Wang, Shuyu; Niu, Xiaorui; Hui, Pinhong; Zong, Peishu; Wang, Xueyuan
2017-04-01
In this study, the impact of the spectral nudging method on regional climate simulation over the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment East Asia (CORDEX-EA) region is investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis, five continuous simulations covering 1989-2007 are conducted by the WRF model, in which four runs adopt the interior spectral nudging with different wavenumbers, nudging variables and nudging coefficients. Model validation shows that WRF has the ability to simulate spatial distributions and temporal variations of the surface climate (air temperature and precipitation) over CORDEX-EA domain. Comparably the spectral nudging technique is effective in improving the model's skill in the following aspects: (1), the simulated biases and root mean square errors of annual mean temperature and precipitation are obviously reduced. The SN3-UVT (spectral nudging with wavenumber 3 in both zonal and meridional directions applied to U, V and T) and SN6 (spectral nudging with wavenumber 6 in both zonal and meridional directions applied to U and V) experiments give the best simulations for temperature and precipitation respectively. The inter-annual and seasonal variances produced by the SN experiments are also closer to the ERA-Interim observation. (2), the application of spectral nudging in WRF is helpful for simulating the extreme temperature and precipitation, and the SN3-UVT simulation shows a clear advantage over the other simulations in depicting both the spatial distributions and inter-annual variances of temperature and precipitation extremes. With the spectral nudging, WRF is able to preserve the variability in the large scale climate information, and therefore adjust the temperature and precipitation variabilities toward the observation.
Impact of regional climate change on human health
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Patz, Jonathan A.; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A.
2005-11-01
The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.
Impact of regional climate change on human health.
Patz, Jonathan A; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A
2005-11-17
The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Polonsky, Alexander B.; Basharin, Dmitry V.
2017-04-01
The aim of this paper is to study the interannual climate variability over the Mediterranean region related to the Indo-ocean dipole (IOD) using the data of re-analyses, archival data and specialized numerical experiments. It is shown that the IOD does not impact essentially the anomalies of surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level pressure (SLP) in the Mediterranean region. On average, the IOD-induced share of the SAT/SLP variance in the total variance of these fields in the Mediterranean region is smaller than 10% even in summer when it is at a maximum. However, the statistically significant IOD-induced SAT/SLP anomalies in the Mediterranean region are detectable. For definite IOD events the associated Mediterranean SAT anomalies can reach about 1 °C.
Government and Governance of Regional Triple Helix Interactions
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Danson, Mike; Todeva, Emanuela
2016-01-01
This conceptual paper contributes to the discussion of the role of regional government and regional Triple Helix constellations driving economic development and growth within regional boundaries. The impact of regionalism and subsidiarity on regional Triple Helix constellations, and the questions of governmentality, governance and institutional…
Impact of the 1997-1998 El-Nino of Regional Hydrology
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lakshmi, Venkataraman; Susskind, Joel
1998-01-01
The 1997-1998 El-Nino brought with it a range of severe local-regional hydrological phenomena. Record high temperatures and extremely dry soil conditions in Texas is an example of this regional effect. The El-Nino and La-Nina change the continental weather patterns considerably. However, connections between continental weather anomalies and regional or local anomalies have not been established to a high degree of confidence. There are several unique features of the recent El-Nino and La-Nina. Due to the recognition of the present El-Nino well in advance, there have been several coupled model studies on global and regional scales. Secondly, there is a near real-time monitoring of the situation using data from satellite sensors, namely, SeaWIFS, TOVS, AVHRR and GOES. Both observations and modeling characterize the large scale features of this El-Nino fairly well. However the connection to the local and regional hydrological phenomenon still needs to be made. This paper will use satellite observations and analysis data to establish a relation between local hydrology and large scale weather patterns. This will be the first step in using satellite data to perform regional hydrological simulations of surface temperature and soil moisture.
Economic Impact of Pharmacy Graduates on a Regional Economy
Rosenman, Robert; Bozman, Carl S.
2009-01-01
Objectives To analyze the impact of recent pharmacy graduates on a local economy. Methods Input-output analysis was applied to data from Spokane County, Washington, in 2006 and the findings were reviewed and conclusions were drawn. Results The local college of pharmacy added nearly $1 million (in 2006) directly to the local economy. New pharmacists added nearly $400,000 in direct value. However, because the graduates alleviated a shortage of pharmacists in the area, thereby avoiding both the tangible and intangible (eg, human health) economic costs of a continued shortage, the true economic impact may have been even greater. Conclusions Doctor of pharmacy (PharmD) graduates entering the workforce add substantial value, both to the local retail pharmacy industry specifically and the local economy in general. Thus, the economic impact of the pharmacy practice program training these students is also substantial. PMID:19564989
Intern Perceptions of Dialect and Regionalism
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
O'Hara, Hunter
2005-01-01
Interns at The University of Tampa investigate how perceptions of dialect and regionalism may impact the learning environment and more precisely, the learner. Regionalism is defined as a belief that one's region of origin is a primary determinant of the quality of one's standards of living, social forms, customary beliefs, levels of…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Argaman, E.; Egozi, R.; Goldshlager, N.
2012-04-01
Water availability in arid regions is a major limiting factor, which affect plant development. Therefore, knowledge about preliminary and ongoing spatial & temporal conditions (e.g. land surface properties, hydrological regime and vegetation dynamics) can improve greatly afforestation practice. The Ambassadors forest is one of the Jewish National Fund (JNF) new afforestation projects (initiated on 2005), which rely on water harvesting irrigation systems, located at the northern Negev region, Israel. Temporal and spatial processes are studied utilizing ground, air-borne and space-borne techniques for assessment of surface processes, that take place due to significant land-use change. Since 2005 the area shows significant variation of surface energy balance components which impact the spatial and temporal forest generation. Both human and climate affect these parameters, hence their influence is essential for future study of the region. Parameters of surface Albedo & Temperature and Vegetation dynamics are gathered by space-borne sensors (e.g. MODIS, Landsat & ALI) and verified at field scale in conjunction with ground-truth measurements of climate and soil properties. In addition, the project study various scenarios that might result from diverse climate trajectories that impact soil formation factors and therefore forest development. Preliminary results show that surface physical & ecoligical properties had changed significantly since the aforestation project began, comparing previous years. Sharp increase of surface albedo detected since 2005 that raised from 0.25 to 0.32, while vegetation density, estimated from NDVI, had dropped from annaul average of 0.21 down to 0.13 during 10-year time period. These changes are related to human interferance. The current paper presents the first phase of the long-term study of the Remote Sensing analysis and the current surface monitoring phase.
The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: a review.
Rummukainen, Markku; Bergström, Sten; Persson, Gunn; Rodhe, Johan; Tjernström, Michael
2004-06-01
The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM, was a 6.5-year national research network for regional climate modeling, regional climate change projections and hydrological impact assessment and information to a wide range of stakeholders. Most of the program activities focussed on the regional climate system of Northern Europe. This led to the establishment of an advanced, coupled atmosphere-ocean-hydrology regional climate model system, a suite of regional climate change projections and progress on relevant data and process studies. These were, in turn, used for information and educational purposes, as a starting point for impact analyses on different societal sectors and provided contributions also to international climate research.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cohen, Barbara A.; Coker, R. F.
2009-01-01
The South Pole-Aitken (SPA) basin is an important target for absolute age-dating. Vertical and lateral impact mixing ensures that regolith within SPA will contain rock fragments from SPA itself, local impact craters, and faraway giant basins. About 20% of the regolith at any given site is foreign [1, 2], but much of this material will be cold ejecta, not impact melt. We calculated the fraction of contributed impact melt using scaling laws to estimate the amount and provenance of impact melt, demonstrating that SPA melt is the dominant impact melt rock (>70%) likely to be present. We also constructed a statistical model to illustrate how many randomly-selected impact-melt fragments would need to be dated, and with what accuracy, to confidently reproduce the impact history of a site. A detailed impact history becomes recognizable after a few hundred to a thousand randomly-selected marbles, however, it will be useful to have more information (e.g. compositional, mineralogical, remote sensing) to group fragments. These exercises show that SPA melt has a high probability of being present in a scoop sample and that dating of a few hundred to a thousand impact-melt fragments will yield the impact history of the SPA basin.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Walsh, Kevin J. E.; McInnes, Kathleen L.; McBride, John L.
2012-01-01
This paper reviews the current understanding of the effect of climate change on extreme sea levels in the South Pacific region. This region contains many locations that are vulnerable to extreme sea levels in the current climate, and projections indicate that this vulnerability will increase in the future. The recent publication of authoritative statements on the relationship between global warming and global sea level rise, tropical cyclones and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon has motivated this review. Confident predictions of global mean sea level rise are modified by regional differences in the steric (density-related) component of sea level rise and changing gravitational interactions between the ocean and the ice sheets which affect the regional distribution of the eustatic (mass-related) contribution to sea level rise. The most extreme sea levels in this region are generated by tropical cyclones. The intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones is likely to increase, but many climate models project a substantial decrease in tropical cyclone numbers in this region, which may lead to an overall decrease in the total number of intense tropical cyclones. This projection, however, needs to be better quantified using improved high-resolution climate model simulations of tropical cyclones. Future changes in ENSO may lead to large regional variations in tropical cyclone incidence and sea level rise, but these impacts are also not well constrained. While storm surges from tropical cyclones give the largest sea level extremes in the parts of this region where they occur, other more frequent high sea level events can arise from swell generated by distant storms. Changes in wave climate are projected for the tropical Pacific due to anthropogenically-forced changes in atmospheric circulation. Future changes in sea level extremes will be caused by a combination of changes in mean sea level, regional sea level trends, tropical cyclone incidence and wave
Water Security, Climate Forcings and Public Health Impacts in Emerging Regions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Serman, E. A.; Akanda, A. S.; Craver, V.; Boving, T. B.
2014-12-01
Our world is rapidly urbanizing, with more than 80% of world's population is expected to be living in a city by the end of the century. A majority of these nations are rapidly urbanizing due to massive rural-to-urban migratory trends, with rapid development of unplanned urban settlements, or slums, with lack of adequate water or sanitation facilities and other municipal amenities. With global environmental change, natural disasters will expose millions more to drought, floods, and disease epidemics, and existing vulnerabilities will worsen. At the same time, rapid urbanization and fast changing land-use leads to widespread damage of infrastructure by stormwater, especially in lowlands and economically poor areas. The factor that consistently stands out among different cities from both the developed and the developing worlds is that the slums are typically the most vulnerable to water related natural hazards and climatic threats, such as water scarcity and quality issues in drought conditions, or water and sanitation breakdown and stormwater contamination problems. Onsite or decentralized water, wastewater and stormwater treatment as well as point-of-use water treatment options can be an economic, safe, and reliable alternative to conventional large-scale treatment especially, in urban fringes as well as rural areas. These systems can be designed to fit communities in terms of their economic, cultural, environmental, and demographic resources. As part of this study, we develop a database of urban water quality and quantity indices such as with urban land-use, water usage, climate, and socio-economic characteristics in various emerging regions in the world. We analyze past and current data to identify and quantify long-term trends and the impacts of large-scale climatic and anthropogenic changes on urban hydrology and health impacts. We specifically focus on five major cities from distinct groups of countries and geographies: Providence, RI, USA from the developed
44 CFR 10.10 - Preparation of environmental impact statements.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR
2011-10-01
... environmental impact statement will be prepared and publication of the notice of intent, the Regional... Regional Administrator may at any time supplement a draft or final environmental impact statement. The Regional Administrator shall prepare a supplement to either the draft or final environmental impact...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z.; Save, H.; Faunt, C. C.; Dettinger, M. D.
2015-12-01
Increasing concerns about drought impacts on water resources in California underscores the need to better understand effects of drought on water storage and coping strategies. Here we use a new GRACE mascons solution with high spatial resolution (1 degree) developed at the Univ. of Texas Center for Space Research (CSR) and output from the most recent regional groundwater model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate changes in water storage in response to recent droughts. We also extend the analysis of drought impacts on water storage back to the 1980s using modeling and monitoring data. The drought has been intensifying since 2012 with almost 50% of the state and 100% of the Central Valley under exceptional drought in 2015. Total water storage from GRACE data declined sharply during the current drought, similar to the rate of depletion during the previous drought in 2007 - 2009. However, only 45% average recovery between the two droughts results in a much greater cumulative impact of both droughts. The CSR GRACE Mascons data offer unprecedented spatial resolution with no leakage to the oceans and no requirement for signal restoration. Snow and reservoir storage declines contribute to the total water storage depletion estimated by GRACE with the residuals attributed to groundwater storage. Rates of groundwater storage depletion are consistent with the results of regional groundwater modeling in the Central Valley. Traditional approaches to coping with these climate extremes has focused on surface water reservoir storage; however, increasing conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater and storing excess water from wet periods in depleted aquifers is increasing in the Central Valley.
Racicot, Alexandre; Babin-Roussel, Véronique; Dauphinais, Jean-François; Joly, Jean-Sébastien; Noël, Pascal; Lavoie, Claude
2014-05-01
We propose a framework to facilitate the evaluation of the impacts of shale gas infrastructures (well pads, roads, and pipelines) on land cover features, especially with regards to forest fragmentation. We used a geographic information system and realistic development scenarios largely inspired by the PA (United States) experience, but adapted to a region of QC (Canada) with an already fragmented forest cover and a high gas potential. The scenario with the greatest impact results from development limited by regulatory constraints only, with no access to private roads for connecting well pads to the public road network. The scenario with the lowest impact additionally integrates ecological constraints (deer yards, maple woodlots, and wetlands). Overall the differences between these two scenarios are relatively minor, with <1 % of the forest cover lost in each case. However, large areas of core forests would be lost in both scenarios and the number of forest patches would increase by 13-21 % due to fragmentation. The pipeline network would have a much greater footprint on the land cover than access roads. Using data acquired since the beginning of the shale gas industry, we show that it is possible, within a reasonable time frame, to produce a robust assessment of the impacts of shale gas extraction. The framework we propose could easily be applied to other contexts or jurisdictions.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ruane, Alex C.; Mcdermid, Sonali P.
2017-01-01
We present the Representative Temperature and Precipitation (T&P) GCM Subsetting Approach developed within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to select a practical subset of global climate models (GCMs) for regional integrated assessment of climate impacts when resource limitations do not permit the full ensemble of GCMs to be evaluated given the need to also focus on impacts sector and economics models. Subsetting inherently leads to a loss of information but can free up resources to explore important uncertainties in the integrated assessment that would otherwise be prohibitive. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach identifies five individual GCMs that capture a profile of the full ensemble of temperature and precipitation change within the growing season while maintaining information about the probability that basic classes of climate changes (relatively cool/wet, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and hot/dry) are projected in the full GCM ensemble. We demonstrate the selection methodology for maize impacts in Ames, Iowa, and discuss limitations and situations when additional information may be required to select representative GCMs. We then classify 29 GCMs over all land areas to identify regions and seasons with characteristic diagonal skewness related to surface moisture as well as extreme skewness connected to snow-albedo feedbacks and GCM uncertainty. Finally, we employ this basic approach to recognize that GCM projections demonstrate coherence across space, time, and greenhouse gas concentration pathway. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach provides a quantitative basis for the determination of useful GCM subsets, provides a practical and coherent approach where previous assessments selected solely on availability of scenarios, and may be extended for application to a range of scales and sectoral impacts.
Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; ...
2017-03-28
We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson
2017-04-01
We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent
We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jongeward, Andrew R.
Aerosols and clouds contribute to atmospheric variability and Earth's radiative balance across local, regional, and global scales. Originating from both natural and anthropogenic sources, aerosols can cause adverse health effects and can interact directly with solar radiation as well as indirectly through complex interactions with clouds. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been observed from satellite platforms for over 30 years. During this time, regional changes in emissions, arising from air quality policies and socioeconomic factors, have been suggested as causes for some observed AOD trends. In the United States, the Clean Air Act and amendments have produced improvements in air quality. In this work the impacts of improved air quality on the aerosol loading and aerosol direct and indirect effects over the North Atlantic Ocean are explored using satellite, ground, and model datasets on the monthly timescale during 2002 to 2012. It is established that two trends exist in the total AOD observed by MODIS over the North Atlantic. A decreasing AOD trend between ?0.02 and ?0.04 per decade is observed over the mid-latitude region. Using the GOCART aerosol model it is shown that this trend results from decreases in anthropogenic species. Ground based aerosol networks (AERONET and IMPROVE) support a decreasing trend in AOD and further strengthen links to anthropogenic aerosol species, particularly sulfate species. This anthropogenic decrease occurs primarily during spring and summer. During the same time period, MODIS also observes an increasing AOD trend of 0.02 per decade located in the sub-tropical region. This trend is shown to occur during summer and is the result of natural dust aerosol. Changes in the North African environment seen in the MERRA reanalysis suggest an accelerated warming over the Saharan Desert leads to changes in the African Easterly Jet, related Easterly Waves, and baroclinicity playing a role in an increase and northward shift in African dust
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huang, Ruping; Chen, Shangfeng; Chen, Wen; Hu, Peng
2018-01-01
This study investigates interannual variability of boreal winter regional Hadley circulation over western Pacific (WPHC) and its climatic impacts. A WPHC intensity index (WPHCI) is defined as the vertical shear of the divergent meridional winds. It shows that WPHCI correlates well with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To investigate roles of the ENSO-unrelated part of WPHCI (WPHCIres), variables that are linearly related to the Niño-3 index have been removed. It reveals that meridional sea surface temperature gradient over the western Pacific plays an essential role in modulating the WPHCIres. The climatic impacts of WPHCIres are further investigated. Below-normal (above-normal) precipitation appears over south China (North Australia) when WPHCIres is stronger. This is due to the marked convergence (divergence) anomalies at the upper troposphere, divergence (convergence) at the lower troposphere, and the accompanied downward (upward) motion over south China (North Australia), which suppresses (enhances) precipitation there. In addition, a pronounced increase in surface air temperature (SAT) appears over south and central China when WPHCIres is stronger. A temperature diagnostic analysis suggests that the increase in SAT tendency over central China is primarily due to the warm zonal temperature advection and subsidence-induced adiabatic heating. In addition, the increase in SAT tendency over south China is primarily contributed by the warm meridional temperature advection. Further analysis shows that the correlation of WPHCIres with the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is weak. Thus, this study may provide additional sources besides EAWM and ENSO to improve understanding of the Asia-Australia climate variability.
Deforestation impacts on soil organic carbon stocks in the Semiarid Chaco Region, Argentina.
Villarino, Sebastián Horacio; Studdert, Guillermo Alberto; Baldassini, Pablo; Cendoya, María Gabriela; Ciuffoli, Lucía; Mastrángelo, Matias; Piñeiro, Gervasio
2017-01-01
Land use change affects soil organic carbon (SOC) and generates CO 2 emissions. Moreover, SOC depletion entails degradation of soil functions that support ecosystem services. Large areas covered by dry forests have been cleared in the Semiarid Chaco Region of Argentina for cropping expansion. However, deforestation impacts on the SOC stock and its distribution in the soil profile have been scarcely reported. We assessed these impacts based on the analysis of field data along a time-since-deforestation-for-cropping chronosequence, and remote sensing indices. Soil organic C was determined up to 100cm depth and physically fractionated into mineral associated organic carbon (MAOC) and particulate organic C (POC). Models describing vertical distribution of SOC were fitted. Total SOC, POC and MAOC stocks decreased markedly with increasing cropping age. Particulate organic C was the most sensitive fraction to cultivation. After 10yr of cropping SOC loss was around 30%, with greater POC loss (near 60%) and smaller MAOC loss (near 15%), at 0-30cm depth. Similar relative SOC losses were observed in deeper soil layers (30-60 and 60-100cm). Deforestation and subsequent cropping also modified SOC vertical distribution. Soil organic C loss was negatively associated with the proportion of maize in the rotation and total crop biomass inputs, but positively associated with the proportion of soybean in the rotation. Without effective land use polices, deforestation and agricultural expansion can lead to rapid soil degradation and reductions in the provision of important ecosystem services. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Inflated Uncertainty in Multimodel-Based Regional Climate Projections.
Madsen, Marianne Sloth; Langen, Peter L; Boberg, Fredrik; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg
2017-11-28
Multimodel ensembles are widely analyzed to estimate the range of future regional climate change projections. For an ensemble of climate models, the result is often portrayed by showing maps of the geographical distribution of the multimodel mean results and associated uncertainties represented by model spread at the grid point scale. Here we use a set of CMIP5 models to show that presenting statistics this way results in an overestimation of the projected range leading to physically implausible patterns of change on global but also on regional scales. We point out that similar inconsistencies occur in impact analyses relying on multimodel information extracted using statistics at the regional scale, for example, when a subset of CMIP models is selected to represent regional model spread. Consequently, the risk of unwanted impacts may be overestimated at larger scales as climate change impacts will never be realized as the worst (or best) case everywhere.
Climatic Consequences and Agricultural Impact of Regional Nuclear Conflict
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Toon, O. B.; Robock, A.; Mills, M. J.; Xia, L.
2013-05-01
A nuclear war between India and Pakistan, with each country using 50 Hiroshima-sized atom bombs as airbursts on urban areas, would inject smoke from the resulting fires into the stratosphere.This could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and global-scale ozone depletion, with enhanced ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the surface.Simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), run at higher vertical and horizontal resolution than a previous simulation with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE, and incorporating ozone chemistry for the first time, show a longer stratospheric residence time for smoke and hence a longer-lasting climate response, with global average surface air temperatures still 1.1 K below normal and global average precipitation 4% below normal after a decade.The erythemal dose from the enhanced UV radiation would greatly increase, in spite of enhanced absorption by the remaining smoke, with the UV index more than 3 units higher in the summer midlatitudes, even after a decade. Scenarios of changes in temperature, precipitation, and downward shortwave radiation from the ModelE and WACCM simulations, applied to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model for winter wheat, rice, soybeans, and maize by perturbing observed time series with anomalies from the regional nuclear war simulations, produce decreases of 10-50% in yield averaged over a decade, with larger decreases in the first several years, over the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The impact of the nuclear war simulated here, using much less than 1% of the global nuclear arsenal, would be devastating to world agricultural production and trade, possibly sentencing a billion people now living marginal existences to starvation.The continued environmental threat of the use of even a small number of nuclear weapons must be considered in nuclear policy deliberations in Russia, the U.S., and the rest of
Paz, Shlomit
2006-02-01
The West Nile Virus (WNV) outbreak in Israel in 2000 appeared after medical and climatic warning signs. Re-analysis of the epidemic from a new viewpoint, the regional impact of global warming, especially the worsening in the summers' heat conditions, is presented. The disease appeared averagely at a lag of 3-9 weeks (strongest correlation = lag of 7 weeks). The minimum temperature was found as the most important climatic factor that encourages the disease earlier appearance. Extreme heat is more significant than high air humidity for increasing WNV cases. An early extreme rise in the summer temperature could be a good indicator of increased vector populations. While 93.5% of cases were in the metropolitan areas, the disease was not reported in the sub-arid regions. The outbreak development was comparable to the cases from Romania (1996) and NYC (1999). Each of those epidemics appeared after a long heatwave.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sassa, Chiyuki; Takahashi, Motomitsu
2018-01-01
Larvae of mesopelagic fishes usually dominate in oceanic larval fish assemblages, but detailed investigations of their ecology are limited and thus preclude full assessment of the ecosystem structure and dynamics in oceanic waters. Here, we examined the growth and mortality of six taxa of numerically dominant mesopelagic fish larvae and their predatory impact on zooplankton in the Kuroshio region off southern Japan during late winter. The weight-specific growth coefficient (Gw) ranged from 0.077 (Sigmops gracilis) to 0.156 d-1 (Vinciguerria nimbaria), and the instantaneous daily mortality coefficient (M) from 0.067 (S. gracilis) to 0.143 d-1 (Myctophum asperum). The ratio Gw/M, an index of stage-specific survival of the larvae, was from 0.90 (Notoscopelus japonicus) to 1.24 (V. nimbaria), without a significant difference from a value of 1 in all species. Based on the reported relationship between Gw and ingestion rate of the larval fishes, the daily ration of each species was calculated to be 32-57% of body dry weight d-1. Mean and 95% confidence interval of food requirements of the six taxa of larvae was 1.41 ± 0.55 mg C m-2 d-1. Predatory impact of the mesopelagic fish larvae on the production rate of the available prey was estimated to be approximately 3.5-5.2%, implying that the larvae have a low level but consistent effect on zooplankton production in the oligotrophic Kuroshio region.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cousin, F.; Tulet, P.; Rosset, R.
2005-03-01
Escompte, a European programme which took place in the Marseille region in June-July 2001, has been designed as an exhaustive database to be used for the development and validation of air pollution models. The air quality Mesoscale NonHydrostatic Chemistry model (Meso-NH-C) is used to simulate 2 days of an Intensive Observation Period (IOP) documented during the Escompte campaign, June 23 and 24, 2001. We first study the synoptic and local meteorological situation on June 23 and 24, using surface and aircraft measurements. Then, we focus on the pollution episode of June 24. This study emphasizes the deep impact of synoptic and local dynamics on observed ozone concentrations. It is shown that ozone levels are due both to regional and local factors, with highlights of the importance of ozone layering. More generally this confirms, even in an otherwise predominant local sea-breeze regime, the need to consider larger scale regional pollutant transport.
Current and potential impacts of mosquitoes and the pathogens they vector in the Pacific region
LaPointe, Dennis
2007-01-01
Mosquitoes and the pathogens they transmit are ubiquitous throughout most of the temperate and tropical regions of the world. The natural and pre-European distribution and diversity of mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases throughout much of the Pacific region, however, depicts a depauperate and relatively benign fauna reinforcing the dream of “paradise regained”. In the central and South Pacific few mosquito species were able to colonize the remotest islands and atolls. Native mosquitoes are limited to a few far-ranging species and island endemics are typically restricted to the genera of Aedes and Culex. Only lymphatic filariasis appears to have been present as an endemic mosquito-borne disease before European contact. In nearby Australia, however, some 242 species of mosquitoes are known to occur and more than 70 arboviruses have been identified (Mackenzie 1999). In this regard Australia is more similar to the rest of the tropic and subtropical world than the smaller islands of Oceania. In our ever-shrinking world of global commerce, military activity and travel, the nature of mosquito-borne disease in the Pacific was bound to change. This paper is a brief summary of introduced mosquitoes in the Pacific and their potential impacts on human and wildlife health.
Swarthout, Robert F; Russo, Rachel S; Zhou, Yong; Miller, Brandon M; Mitchell, Brittney; Horsman, Emily; Lipsky, Eric; McCabe, David C; Baum, Ellen; Sive, Barkley C
2015-03-03
The Marcellus Shale is the largest natural gas deposit in the U.S. and rapid development of this resource has raised concerns about regional air pollution. A field campaign was conducted in the southwestern Pennsylvania region of the Marcellus Shale to investigate the impact of unconventional natural gas (UNG) production operations on regional air quality. Whole air samples were collected throughout an 8050 km(2) grid surrounding Pittsburgh and analyzed for methane, carbon dioxide, and C1-C10 volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Elevated mixing ratios of methane and C2-C8 alkanes were observed in areas with the highest density of UNG wells. Source apportionment was used to identify characteristic emission ratios for UNG sources, and results indicated that UNG emissions were responsible for the majority of mixing ratios of C2-C8 alkanes, but accounted for a small proportion of alkene and aromatic compounds. The VOC emissions from UNG operations accounted for 17 ± 19% of the regional kinetic hydroxyl radical reactivity of nonbiogenic VOCs suggesting that natural gas emissions may affect compliance with federal ozone standards. A first approximation of methane emissions from the study area of 10.0 ± 5.2 kg s(-1) provides a baseline for determining the efficacy of regulatory emission control efforts.
Wardekker, J A; Wildschut, D; Stemberger, S; van der Sluijs, J P
2016-01-01
Freshwater systems provide various resources and services. These are often vulnerable to climate change and other pressures. Therefore, enhancing resilience to climate change is important for their long term viability. This paper explores how management options can be evaluated on their resilience implications. The approach included five steps: (1) characterizing the system, (2) characterizing the impacts of climate change and other disturbances, (3) inventorying management options, (4) assessing the impacts of these on climate resilience, and (5) follow-up analysis. For the resilience assessment, we used a set of 'resilience principles': homeostasis, omnivory, high flux, flatness, buffering, and redundancy. We applied the approach in a case study in a Dutch wetlands region. Many options in the region's management plan contribute to resilience, however, the plan underutilised several principles, particularly flatness, but also redundancy and omnivory for agriculture, and high flux for nature. Co-benefits was identified as an important additional criterion to obtain support for adaptation from local stakeholders, such as farmers. The approach provided a relatively quick and participatory way to screen options. It allowed us to consider multiple impacts and sectors, multiple dimensions of resilience, and stakeholder perspectives. The results can be used to identify gaps or pitfalls, and set priorities for follow-up analyses.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xiang, T.; Vivoni, E. R.; Gochis, D. J.; Mascaro, G.
2015-12-01
Heterogeneous land surface conditions are essential components of land-atmosphere interactions in regions of complex terrain and have the potential to affect convective precipitation formation. Yet, due to their high complexity, hydrologic processes over mountainous regions are not well understood, and are usually parameterized in simple ways within coupled land-atmosphere modeling frameworks. With the improving model physics and spatial resolution of numerical weather prediction models, there is an urgent need to understand how land surface processes affect local and regional meteorological processes. In the North American Monsoon (NAM) region, the summer rainy season is accompanied by a dramatic greening of mountain ecosystems that adds spatiotemporal variability in vegetation which is anticipated to impact the conditions leading to convection, mountain-valley circulations and mesoscale organization. In this study, we present results from a detailed analysis of a high-resolution (1 km) land surface model, Noah-MP, in a large, mountainous watershed of the NAM region - the Rio Sonora (21,264 km2) in Mexico. In addition to capturing the spatial variations in terrain and soil distributions, recently-developed features in Noah-MP allow the model to read time-varying vegetation parameters derived from remotely-sensed vegetation indices; however, this new implementation has not been fully evaluated. Therefore, we assess the simulated spatiotemporal fields of soil moisture, surface temperature and surface energy fluxes through comparisons to remote sensing products and results from coarser land surface models obtained from the North American Land Data Assimilation System. We focus attention on the impact of vegetation changes along different elevation bands on the diurnal cycle of surface energy fluxes to provide a baseline for future analyses of mountain-valley circulations using a coupled land-atmosphere modeling system. Our study also compares limited streamflow
Land use impacts on lake water quality in Alytus region (Lithuania)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pereira, Paulo; Laukonis, Rymvidas
2016-04-01
Land use has important impacts on soils, surface and ground water quality. Urban agricultural areas are an important source of pollutants, which can reach lakes through surface runoff and underground circulation. Human intervention in the landscape is one of the major causes pollution and land degradation, thus it is very important to understand the impacts of and use on environment and if they have some spatial pattern (Pereira et al., 2013, 2015; Brevik et al., 2016). The identification of the spatial pattern of lakes pollution is in Alytus area (Lithuania) is fundamental, since they provide an important range of ecosystem services to local communities, including food and recreational activities. Thus, the degradation of these environments can induce important economic losses. In this context, it is import to identify the areas with high pollutant accumulation and the environmental and human factors responsible for it. The objective of this work is to study identify the amount of some important nutrients resultant from human activities in lake water quality in Alytus region (Lithuania). Alytus region is located in southern part of Lithuania and has an approximate area of 40 km2. Inside this region we analyzed several water quality parameters of 55 lakes, including, pH, electrical conductivity (EC), suspended materials (SM), water clarity (WC) biochemical oxygen demand (BDO), total phosphorous (TP), total Nitrogen (TN), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), as other environmental variables as altitude, lake maximum deep (MD), lake area and land use according Corine land cover classification (CLC2006). Previous to data analysis, data normality and homogeneity of the variances, was assessed with the Shapiro-wilk and Leven's test, respectively. The majority of the data did not respect the Gaussian distribution and the heteroscedasticity, even after a logarithmic, and box-cox transformation. Thus, in this work we used the logarithmic transformed data to do a principal
The Economic Impact of Eight Research Universities on the Boston Region
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Simha, O. Robert
2005-01-01
The greater Boston region's eight research universities play a key role in the region's economic health and welfare. They are magnets for research and development talent and for billions of dollars in investment. These institutions contribute $7.4 billion dollars to the regional economy, jobs for about 50,000 university employees and 37,000…
Takeuchi, Hikaru; Taki, Yasuyuki; Sassa, Yuko; Hashizume, Hiroshi; Sekiguchi, Atsushi; Fukushima, Ai; Kawashima, Ryuta
2011-01-01
Training working memory (WM) improves performance on untrained cognitive tasks and alters functional activity. However, WM training's effects on gray matter morphology and a wide range of cognitive tasks are still unknown. We investigated this issue using voxel-based morphometry (VBM), various psychological measures, such as non-trained WM tasks and a creativity task, and intensive adaptive training of WM using mental calculations (IATWMMC), all of which are typical WM tasks. IATWMMC was associated with reduced regional gray matter volume in the bilateral fronto-parietal regions and the left superior temporal gyrus. It improved verbal letter span and complex arithmetic ability, but deteriorated creativity. These results confirm the training-induced plasticity in psychological mechanisms and the plasticity of gray matter structures in regions that have been assumed to be under strong genetic control.
The impact of SLMTA in improving laboratory quality systems in the Caribbean Region.
Guevara, Giselle; Gordon, Floris; Irving, Yvette; Whyms, Ismae; Parris, Keith; Beckles, Songee; Maruta, Talkmore; Ndlovu, Nqobile; Albalak, Rachel; Alemnji, George
Past efforts to improve laboratory quality systems and to achieve accreditation for better patient care in the Caribbean Region have been slow. To describe the impact of the Strengthening of Laboratory Management Toward Accreditation (SLMTA) training programme and mentorship amongst five clinical laboratories in the Caribbean after 18 months. Five national reference laboratories from four countries participated in the SLMTA programme that incorporated classroom teaching and implementation of improvement projects. Mentors were assigned to the laboratories to guide trainees on their improvement projects and to assist in the development of Quality Management Systems (QMS). Audits were conducted at baseline, six months, exit (at 12 months) and post-SLMTA (at 18 months) using the Stepwise Laboratory Quality Improvement Process Towards Accreditation (SLIPTA) checklist to measure changes in implementation of the QMS during the period. At the end of each audit, a comprehensive implementation plan was developed in order to address gaps. Baseline audit scores ranged from 19% to 52%, corresponding to 0 stars on the SLIPTA five-star scale. After 18 months, one laboratory reached four stars, two reached three stars and two reached two stars. There was a corresponding decrease in nonconformities and development of over 100 management and technical standard operating procedures in each of the five laboratories. The tremendous improvement in these five Caribbean laboratories shows that SLMTA coupled with mentorship is an effective, user-friendly, flexible and customisable approach to the implementation of laboratory QMS. It is recommended that other laboratories in the region consider using the SLMTA training programme as they engage in quality systems improvement and preparation for accreditation.
The impact of SLMTA in improving laboratory quality systems in the Caribbean Region
Gordon, Floris; Irving, Yvette; Whyms, Ismae; Parris, Keith; Beckles, Songee; Maruta, Talkmore; Ndlovu, Nqobile; Albalak, Rachel; Alemnji, George
2014-01-01
Background Past efforts to improve laboratory quality systems and to achieve accreditation for better patient care in the Caribbean Region have been slow. Objective To describe the impact of the Strengthening of Laboratory Management Toward Accreditation (SLMTA) training programme and mentorship amongst five clinical laboratories in the Caribbean after 18 months. Method Five national reference laboratories from four countries participated in the SLMTA programme that incorporated classroom teaching and implementation of improvement projects. Mentors were assigned to the laboratories to guide trainees on their improvement projects and to assist in the development of Quality Management Systems (QMS). Audits were conducted at baseline, six months, exit (at 12 months) and post-SLMTA (at 18 months) using the Stepwise Laboratory Quality Improvement Process Towards Accreditation (SLIPTA) checklist to measure changes in implementation of the QMS during the period. At the end of each audit, a comprehensive implementation plan was developed in order to address gaps. Results Baseline audit scores ranged from 19% to 52%, corresponding to 0 stars on the SLIPTA five-star scale. After 18 months, one laboratory reached four stars, two reached three stars and two reached two stars. There was a corresponding decrease in nonconformities and development of over 100 management and technical standard operating procedures in each of the five laboratories. Conclusion The tremendous improvement in these five Caribbean laboratories shows that SLMTA coupled with mentorship is an effective, user-friendly, flexible and customisable approach to the implementation of laboratory QMS. It is recommended that other laboratories in the region consider using the SLMTA training programme as they engage in quality systems improvement and preparation for accreditation. PMID:27066396
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Medvigy, D.; Khanna, J.
2016-12-01
The Amazon rainforest has been under deforestation for more than four decades. Recent investigation of the regional hydroclimatic impacts of the past three decades of deforestation has revealed a strong scale-dependence of the atmospheric response to land use change. Contemporary deforestation, affecting spatial scales of a few hundreds of kilometers, has resulted in a spatial redistribution of the local dry season rainfall, with downwind and upwind deforested regions receiving respectively 30% more and 30% less rainfall from the area mean. This phenomenon is attributable to a `dynamical' response of the boundary layer air to a reduction in surface roughness due to deforestation, apparent in both satellite and numerically simulated data. This response is starkly different from a spatially uniform increase in non-precipitating cloudiness triggered by small scale clearings, prevalent in the early phases of deforestation. This study investigates the `generalizability' of the dynamical mechanism to understand its impacts on a continually deforested Amazonia. In particular, we investigate the spatiotemporal variability of the dynamical mechanism. The nature of this investigation demands long time series and large spatial converge datasets of the hydroclimate. As such, satellite imagery of clouds (GridSat) and precipitation (PERSIANN and TRMM) has proven particularly useful in facilitating this analysis. The analysis is further complemented by a reanalysis product (ERA-interim) and numerical simulations (using a variable resolution GCM). Results indicate the presence of the dynamical mechanism during local dry and transition seasons effecting the mean precipitation during this period. Its effect on the transition season precipitation can be important for the local dry season length. The dynamical mechanism also occurs in atmospheric conditions which are otherwise less conducive to thermally triggered convection. Hence, this mechanism, which effects the seasons most
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anderson, C. J.; Wildhaber, M. L.; Wikle, C. K.; Moran, E. H.; Franz, K. J.; Dey, R.
2012-12-01
Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding the effects of change on ecosystems requires accounting for the propagation of information and uncertainty across these scales. For example, to understand potential climate change effects on fish populations in riverine ecosystems, climate conditions predicted by course-resolution atmosphere-ocean global climate models must first be translated to the regional climate scale. In turn, this regional information is used to force watershed models, which are used to force river condition models, which impact the population response. A critical challenge in such a multiscale modeling environment is to quantify sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and the individual organism. We use a hierarchical modeling approach for accommodating uncertainty in multiscale ecological impact studies. This framework allows for uncertainty due to system models, model parameter settings, and stochastic parameterizations. This approach is a hybrid between physical (deterministic) downscaling and statistical downscaling, recognizing that there is uncertainty in both. We use NARCCAP data to determine confidence the capability of climate models to simulate relevant processes and to quantify regional climate variability within the context of the hierarchical model of uncertainty quantification. By confidence, we mean the ability of the regional climate model to replicate observed mechanisms. We use the NCEP-driven simulations for this analysis. This provides a base from which regional change can be categorized as either a modification of previously observed mechanisms or emergence of new processes. The management implications for these categories of change are significantly different in that procedures to address impacts from existing processes may already be known and need adjustment; whereas, an emergent processes may require new management
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Piketh, S.; Curtis, C.; Pienaar, K.; Khuzwayo, L.; van Zyl, P. G.; Conradie, E.
2016-12-01
South Africa is rich in natural resources that include large deposits of coal. As a result more than 90% of the energy in the country is generated by 13 coal fired power stations located on the Highveld region. Over the past 7 years South Africa has experienced severe power shortages which has resulted in the approval of two new mega coal fired power stations each with a 4800 Mw generating capacity. One of these power stations is at Lephalale in the Waterberg. This region is largely dominated by a natural to semi-natural landscape, but some areas have acid sensitive sub-soils (pH < 5.5) rendering their headwater streams vulnerable to acidification. There are only three other important sources of emissions close to Lephalale, a second coal fired power station, a char plant and domestic coal combustion. In an attempt to determine baseline conditions of air pollution, deposition and stream chemistry impacts prior to the commissioning of the new PS the following measurements have been undertaken, ambient concentrations of SO2, NOx, NH3 and O3 (at seven sites since 2010), rain water chemistry ( at one site for 2015 and 2016) and headwater stream vulnerability (2015 and 2016). Concentrations of sodium (Na+), ammonium (NH4+), potassium (K+), calcium (Ca2+), magnesium (Mg2+), nitrate 21 (NO3-), chloride (Cl-), sulphate (SO42-) in the rain water will be presented and compared to other long term sites around South Africa. Total deposition of S and N will in the Lephalale region will be presented. At least 30 acid-sensitive headwater streams, many with low pH <6 and low acid neutralizing capacity that are extremely sensitive to acid deposition inputs have been identified. Future deposition in the area of acidifying species will be modelled by including emissions from the new Power station and estimates of the potential impact will be assessed.
Impact of Variable-Resolution Meshes on Regional Climate Simulations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fowler, L. D.; Skamarock, W. C.; Bruyere, C. L.
2014-12-01
The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is currently being used for seasonal-scale simulations on globally-uniform and regionally-refined meshes. Our ongoing research aims at analyzing simulations of tropical convective activity and tropical cyclone development during one hurricane season over the North Atlantic Ocean, contrasting statistics obtained with a variable-resolution mesh against those obtained with a quasi-uniform mesh. Analyses focus on the spatial distribution, frequency, and intensity of convective and grid-scale precipitations, and their relative contributions to the total precipitation as a function of the horizontal scale. Multi-month simulations initialized on May 1st 2005 using ERA-Interim re-analyses indicate that MPAS performs satisfactorily as a regional climate model for different combinations of horizontal resolutions and transitions between the coarse and refined meshes. Results highlight seamless transitions for convection, cloud microphysics, radiation, and land-surface processes between the quasi-uniform and locally- refined meshes, despite the fact that the physics parameterizations were not developed for variable resolution meshes. Our goal of analyzing the performance of MPAS is twofold. First, we want to establish that MPAS can be successfully used as a regional climate model, bypassing the need for nesting and nudging techniques at the edges of the computational domain as done in traditional regional climate modeling. Second, we want to assess the performance of our convective and cloud microphysics parameterizations as the horizontal resolution varies between the lower-resolution quasi-uniform and higher-resolution locally-refined areas of the global domain.
Impact of Variable-Resolution Meshes on Regional Climate Simulations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fowler, L. D.; Skamarock, W. C.; Bruyere, C. L.
2013-12-01
The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is currently being used for seasonal-scale simulations on globally-uniform and regionally-refined meshes. Our ongoing research aims at analyzing simulations of tropical convective activity and tropical cyclone development during one hurricane season over the North Atlantic Ocean, contrasting statistics obtained with a variable-resolution mesh against those obtained with a quasi-uniform mesh. Analyses focus on the spatial distribution, frequency, and intensity of convective and grid-scale precipitations, and their relative contributions to the total precipitation as a function of the horizontal scale. Multi-month simulations initialized on May 1st 2005 using NCEP/NCAR re-analyses indicate that MPAS performs satisfactorily as a regional climate model for different combinations of horizontal resolutions and transitions between the coarse and refined meshes. Results highlight seamless transitions for convection, cloud microphysics, radiation, and land-surface processes between the quasi-uniform and locally-refined meshes, despite the fact that the physics parameterizations were not developed for variable resolution meshes. Our goal of analyzing the performance of MPAS is twofold. First, we want to establish that MPAS can be successfully used as a regional climate model, bypassing the need for nesting and nudging techniques at the edges of the computational domain as done in traditional regional climate modeling. Second, we want to assess the performance of our convective and cloud microphysics parameterizations as the horizontal resolution varies between the lower-resolution quasi-uniform and higher-resolution locally-refined areas of the global domain.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fisher, J. A.; Atlas, E. L.; Blake, D. R.; Barletta, B.; Thompson, C. R.; Peischl, J.; Tzompa Sosa, Z. A.; Ryerson, T. B.; Murray, L. T.
2017-12-01
Nitrogen oxides (NO + NO2 = NOx) are precursors in the formation of tropospheric ozone, contribute to the formation of aerosols, and enhance nitrogen deposition to ecosystems. While direct emissions tend to be localised over continental source regions, a significant source of NOx to the remote troposphere comes from degradation of other forms of reactive nitrogen. Long-lived, small chain alkyl nitrates (RONO2) including methyl, ethyl and propyl nitrates may be particularly significant forms of reactive nitrogen in the remote atmosphere as they are emitted directly by the ocean in regions where reactive nitrogen is otherwise very low. They also act as NOx reservoir species, sequestering NOx in source regions and releasing it far downwind—and through this process may become increasingly important reservoirs as methane, ethane, and propane emissions grow. However, small RONO2 are not consistently included in global atmospheric chemistry models, and their distributions and impacts remain poorly constrained. In this presentation, we will describe a new RONO2 simulation in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model evaluated using a large ensemble of aircraft observations collected over a 20-year period. The observations are largely concentrated over the Pacific Ocean, beginning with PEM-Tropics in the late 1990s and continuing through the recent HIPPO and ATom campaigns. Both observations and model show enhanced RONO2 in the tropical Pacific boundary layer that is consistent with a photochemical source in seawater. The model reproduces a similarly large enhancement over the southern ocean by assuming a large pool of oceanic RONO2 here, but the source of the seawater enhancement in this environment remains uncertain. We find that including marine RONO2 in the simulation is necessary to correct a large underestimate in simulated reactive nitrogen throughout the Pacific marine boundary layer. We also find that the impacts on NOx export from continental source regions are
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cortinovis, J.; Solmon, F.; Personne, E.; Serça, D.; Rosset, R.
2003-04-01
Concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO+NO2) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) play a crucial role in the atmospheric chemistry through the production-destruction of tropospheric O3. In rural areas, NOx concentrations are much lower than in urban areas, whereas VOCs emissions can be relatively high. This is due to a relative longer residence time of VOCs, and to the substantial contribution of Biogenic VOCs (BVOCs) representing more than 85% of all the VOCs emitted at the Earth surface (half of it being isoprene). For these reasons, O3 production in rural areas is most of the time NOx-limited. Taking into account biogenic emissions of isoprene in global scale atmospheric chemistry modeling adds from 10 to 40% to the ozone produced when compared to the same simulation without isoprene. This suggests that BVOCs and NOx emissions must be accounted for in models of atmospheric pollution forecasting at local and regional scales. In this study, we present a sensitivity analysis on the impact of the isoprene and nitrogen oxides emissions at the local and the regional scale. This study is done from data collected during the ESCOMPTE campaign which took place in June and July 2001 in the Marseille region (Southwest France) characterized by both strong natural and anthropogenic sources of trace gases. Isoprene emission experimental data from a Quercus Pubescens Mediterranean forest are used to constrain the 1Dz Soil-Vegetation-Atmospheric-Transfer ISBA model. This SVAT is used in the 3D MESO-NH-Chemistry model to simulate scenarios of pollution at the regional scale including the measured biogenic source for isoprene, and GENEMIS anthropogenic sources for other trace gases. To focus on the chemistry aspect of these simulations, the atmospheric dynamics are set to an "ideal" configuration. We have investigated the impact of the relative position and distance between the biogenic and anthropogenic sources on the O3 budget. According to this, and to the intensity of the
Amin, M Z M; Shaaban, A J; Ercan, A; Ishida, K; Kavvas, M L; Chen, Z Q; Jang, S
2017-01-01
Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century was dynamically downscaled to 6km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over Muda and Dungun watersheds. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions in the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant from April to May and from July to October at Muda watershed. Also, the increase in mean monthly flows is shown to be significant in November during 2030-2070 and from November to December during 2070-2100 at Dungun watershed. In other words, the impact of the expected climate change will be significant during the northeast and southwest monsoon seasons at Muda watershed and during the northeast monsoon season at Dungun watershed. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for both watersheds indicated an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
De Sales, Fernando; Xue, Yongkang; Okin, Gregory S.
2016-12-01
This study investigates the impact of burned areas on the surface energy balance and monthly precipitation in northern Africa as simulated by a state-of-the-art regional model. Mean burned area fraction derived from MODIS date of burning product was implemented in a set of 1-year long WRF-NMM/SSiB2 model simulations. Vegetation cover fraction and LAI were degraded daily based on mean burned area fraction and on the survival rate for each vegetation land cover type. Additionally, ground darkening associated with wildfire-induced ash and charcoal deposition was imposed through lower ground albedo for a period after burning. In general, wildfire-induced vegetation and ground condition deterioration increased mean surface albedo by exposing the brighter bare ground, which in turn caused a decrease in monthly surface net radiation. On average, the wildfire-season albedo increase was approximately 6.3 % over the Sahel. The associated decrease in surface available energy caused a drop in surface sensible heat flux to the atmosphere during the dry months of winter and early spring, which gradually transitioned to a more substantial decrease in surface evapotranspiration in April and May that lessened throughout the rainy season. Overall, post-fire land condition deterioration resulted in a decrease in precipitation over sub-Saharan Africa, associated with the weakening of the West African monsoon progression through the region. A decrease in atmospheric moisture flux convergence was observed in the burned area simulations, which played a dominant role in reducing precipitation in the area, especially in the months preceding the monsoon onset. The areas with the largest precipitation impact were those covered by savannas and rainforests, where annual precipitation decreased by 3.8 and 3.3 %, respectively. The resulting precipitation decrease and vegetation deterioration caused a drop in gross primary productivity in the region, which was strongest in late winter and early
A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet
2013-04-01
Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Antle, J. M.; Valdivia, R. O.; Jones, J.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A. C.
2013-12-01
This presentation provides an overview of the new methods developed by researchers in the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for regional climate impact assessment and analysis of adaptation in agricultural systems. This approach represents a departure from approaches in the literature in several dimensions. First, the approach is based on the analysis of agricultural systems (not individual crops) and is inherently trans-disciplinary: it is based on a deep collaboration among a team of climate scientists, agricultural scientists and economists to design and implement regional integrated assessments of agricultural systems. Second, in contrast to previous approaches that have imposed future climate on models based on current socio-economic conditions, this approach combines bio-physical and economic models with a new type of pathway analysis (Representative Agricultural Pathways) to parameterize models consistent with a plausible future world in which climate change would be occurring. Third, adaptation packages for the agricultural systems in a region are designed by the research team with a level of detail that is useful to decision makers, such as research administrators and donors, who are making agricultural R&D investment decisions. The approach is illustrated with examples from AgMIP's projects currently being carried out in Africa and South Asia.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Jun; Feng, Jinming; Yan, Zhongwei
2018-04-01
In this study, we conducted nested high-resolution simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model to investigate the impact of extensive urbanization on regional precipitation over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in China. The results showed that extensive urbanization decreased precipitation considerably over and downwind of Beijing city. The prevalence of impermeable urban land inhibits local evaporation that feeds moisture into the overlying atmosphere, decreasing relative humidity and atmospheric instability. The dynamic precipitation recycling model was employed to estimate the precipitation that originates from local surface evaporation and large-scale advection of moisture. Results showed that about 11% of the urbanization-induced decrease in total precipitation over the Greater Beijing Region and its surroundings was contributed by the decrease in local recycled precipitation, while the other part (89%) was due to decreasing large-scale advected precipitation. Results suggest that the low evaporation from urban land surfaces not only reduces the supply of water vapor for local recycled precipitation directly but also decreases the convective available potential energy and hence the conversion efficiency of atmospheric moisture into rainfall. The urbanization-induced variations in local recycled precipitation were found to be correlated with the net atmospheric moisture flux on a monthly time scale.
Corsi, Steven R; Graczyk, David J; Geis, Steven W; Booth, Nathaniel L; Richards, Kevin D
2010-10-01
A new perspective on the severity of aquatic toxicity impact of road salt was gained by a focused research effort directed at winter runoff periods. Dramatic impacts were observed on local, regional, and national scales. Locally, samples from 7 of 13 Milwaukee, Wisconsin area streams exhibited toxicity in Ceriodaphnia dubia and Pimephales promelas bioassays during road-salt runoff. Another Milwaukee stream was sampled from 1996 to 2008 with 72% of 37 samples exhibiting toxicity in chronic bioassays and 43% in acute bioassays. The maximum chloride concentration was 7730 mg/L. Regionally, in southeast Wisconsin, continuous specific conductance was monitored as a chloride surrogate in 11 watersheds with urban land use from 6.0 to 100%. Elevated specific conductance was observed between November and April at all sites, with continuing effects between May and October at sites with the highest specific conductance. Specific conductance was measured as high as 30,800 μS/cm (Cl = 11,200 mg/L). Chloride concentrations exceeded U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) acute (860 mg/L) and chronic (230 mg/L) water-quality criteria at 55 and 100% of monitored sites, respectively. Nationally, U.S. Geological Survey historical data were examined for 13 northern and 4 southern metropolitan areas. Chloride concentrations exceeded USEPA water-quality criteria at 55% (chronic) and 25% (acute) of the 168 monitoring locations in northern metropolitan areas from November to April. Only 16% (chronic) and 1% (acute) of sites exceeded criteria from May to October. At southern sites, very few samples exceeded chronic water-quality criteria, and no samples exceeded acute criteria.
e-Mental health in South Australia: impact of age, gender and region of residence.
Keane, Miriam C; Roeger, Leigh S; Allison, Stephen; Reed, Richard L
2013-01-01
Respondents to the 2008 South Australian Health Omnibus survey (n=2996) indicated whether, in the previous 12 months, they had searched for information on the Internet relating to emotional issues such as depression, anxiety or relationship problems. Logistic regression was used to examine the penetration of e-mental health in rural and metropolitan areas (region of residence), and determine if other demographic variables (age group, gender) also impacted on the likelihood of an individual reporting that they had used the Internet to obtain such information. Overall, 9% of respondents reported that they had used the Internet for this purpose. The multivariate model was significant, F(11, 2985)=4.82, P<0.0001, with middle-aged rural females most likely to report doing so (18.1%), whereas older rural males were least likely to report doing so (2.2.%). These findings have important implications for the design of e-mental health promotional programs that provide information and interventions to improve mental health.
Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability on Forest Ecosystem in Mediterranean Region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ozcan, O.; Musaoglu, N.; Türkeş, M.
2017-12-01
The concept of `climate change vulnerability' helps us to better comprehend the cause/effect relationships behind climate change and its impact on human societies, socioeconomic sectors, physiographical and ecological systems. Herein, multifactorial spatial modeling was applied to evaluate the vulnerability of a Mediterranean forest ecosystem to climate change. Thus, the geographical distribution of the final Environmental Vulnerability Areas (EVAs) of the forest ecosystem are based on the estimated final Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) values. This revealed that at current levels of environmental degradation, physical, geographical, policy enforcement and socioeconomic conditions, the area with a "very low" vulnerability degree covered mainly the town, its surrounding settlements and the agricultural lands found mainly over the low and flat travertine plateau and the plains at the east and southeast of the district. The spatial magnitude of the EVAs over the forest ecosystem under the current environmental degradation was also determined. This revealed that the EVAs classed as "very low" account for 21% of the total area of the forest ecosystem, those classed as "low" account for 36%, those classed as "medium" account for 20%, and those classed as "high" account for 24%. Based on regionally averaged future climate assessments and projected future climate indicators, both the study site and the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey will probably become associated with a drier, hotter, more continental and more water-deficient climate. This analysis holds true for all future scenarios, with the exception of RCP4.5 for the period from 2015 to 2030. However, the present dry-sub humid climate dominating this sub-region and the study area shows a potential for change towards more dry climatology and for it to become a semiarid climate in the period between 2031 and 2050 according to the RCP8.5 high emission scenario. All the observed and estimated results
Empirical Estimation of Climate Impacts Under Adaptation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rising, J. A.; Jina, A.; Hsiang, S. M.
2016-12-01
Estimating the impacts of climate change requires a careful account of both the present levels of adaptation observed in different regions and the adaptive capacity those regions might show under climate change. To date, little empirical evidence on either of these components. We present a general approach for empirically estimating the impacts of climate change under both forms of adaptation, applied to the United States. We draw upon relationships between daily temperatures and impacts on mortality, agriculture, and crime, from the econometric climate impacts literature. These are estimated using year-to-year temperature variation within each location. The degree to which regions are vulnerable to high temperatures varies across the US, with warmer regions generally showing less vulnerability. As climate changes, cooler regions will adopt behaviors from warmer regions, such as greater use of air conditioning, and their impact relationships will change accordingly. The rate at which regions have adapted is estimated from changes in these relationships over recent decades. We use these results to model future changes in each US county. as they are exposed to warmer temperatures and adopt characteristics of currently warmer areas. We do this across a full range of climate and statistical uncertainty. The median degree to which adaptation alleviates impacts varies by sector, with 10% lower rates of temperature-induced crime, 15% lower yield losses to maize, to 80% lower rates of heat-related mortality. However, the uncertainty in adaptive capacity remains greater than these changes. Uncertainty in regional response relationships and the rate of adaptation dominate the uncertainty in our total result. We perform two thought experiments to explore the extreme potential for adaptation in light of this uncertainty. We replace the regional relationships with a uniform approach to complete temperature insensitivity, using the normal estimated rate of adaptation. We also
Pacsi, Adam P; Kimura, Yosuke; McGaughey, Gary; McDonald-Buller, Elena C; Allen, David T
2015-03-17
The combined emissions and air quality impacts of electricity generation in the Texas grid and natural gas production in the Eagle Ford shale were estimated at various natural gas price points for the power sector. The increased use of natural gas in the power sector, in place of coal-fired power generation, drove reductions in average daily maximum 8 h ozone concentration of 0.6-1.3 ppb in northeastern Texas for a high ozone episode used in air quality planning. The associated increase in Eagle Ford upstream oil and gas production nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions caused an estimated local increase, in south Texas, of 0.3-0.7 ppb in the same ozone metric. In addition, the potential ozone impacts of Eagle Ford emissions on nearby urban areas were estimated. On the basis of evidence from this work and a previous study on the Barnett shale, the combined ozone impact of increased natural gas development and use in the power sector is likely to vary regionally and must be analyzed on a case by case basis.
Morales Pedraza, Jorge; Phillips, Glyn O
2009-05-01
The Asia and the Pacific region was within the IAEA program on radiation and tissue banking, the most active region. Most of the tissue banks in the Asia and the Pacific region were developed during the late 1980s and 1990s. The initial number of tissue banks established or supported by the IAEA program in the framework of the RCA Agreement for Asia and the Pacific region was 18. At the end of 2006, the number of tissue banks participating, in one way or another in the IAEA program was 59. Since the beginning of the implementation of the IAEA program in Asia and the Pacific region 63,537 amnion and 44,282 bone allografts were produced and 57,683 amnion and 36,388 bone allografts were used. The main impact of the IAEA program in the region was the following: the establishment or consolidation of at least 59 tissue banks in 15 countries in the region (the IAEA supported directly 16 of these banks); the improvement on the quality and safety of tissues procured and produced in the region reaching international standards; the implementation of eight national projects, two regional projects and two interregional projects; the elaboration of International Standards, a Code of Practice and a Public Awareness Strategies and, the application of quality control and quality assurances programs in all participating tissue banks.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McDonald, Garry W.; Smith, Nicola J.; Kim, Joon-hwan; Cronin, Shane J.; Proctor, Jon N.
2017-07-01
Volcanic risk assessment has historically concentrated on quantifying the frequency, magnitude, and potential diversity of physical processes of eruptions and their consequent impacts on life and property. A realistic socio-economic assessment of volcanic impact must however take into account dynamic properties of businesses and extend beyond only measuring direct infrastructure/property loss. The inoperability input-output model, heralded as one of the 10 most important accomplishments in risk analysis over the last 30 years (Kujawaski Syst Eng. 9:281-295, 2006), has become prominent over the last decade in the economic impact assessment of business disruptions. We develop a dynamic inoperability input-output model to assess the economic impacts of a hypothetical volcanic event occurring at each of 7270 unique spatial locations throughout the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand. This field of at least 53 volcanoes underlies the country's largest urban area, the Auckland region, which is home to 1.4 million people and responsible for 35.3% (NZ201481.2 billion) of the nation's GDP (Statistics New Zealand 2015). We apply volcanic event characteristics for a small-medium-scale volcanic eruption scenario and assess the economic impacts of an `average' eruption in the Auckland region. Economic losses are quantified both with, and without, business mitigation and intervention responses in place. We combine this information with a recent spatial hazard probability map (Bebbington and Cronin Bull Volcanol. 73(1):55-72, 2011) to produce novel spatial economic activity `at risk' maps. Our approach demonstrates how business inoperability losses sit alongside potential life and property damage assessment in enhancing our understanding of volcanic risk mitigation.
10 CFR 72.98 - Identifying regions around an ISFSI or MRS site.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR
2012-01-01
... WASTE Siting Evaluation Factors § 72.98 Identifying regions around an ISFSI or MRS site. (a) The... ISFSI or MRS must be identified. (b) The potential regional impact due to the construction, operation or decommissioning of the ISFSI or MRS must be identified. The extent of regional impacts must be determined on the...
10 CFR 72.98 - Identifying regions around an ISFSI or MRS site.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR
2011-01-01
... WASTE Siting Evaluation Factors § 72.98 Identifying regions around an ISFSI or MRS site. (a) The... ISFSI or MRS must be identified. (b) The potential regional impact due to the construction, operation or decommissioning of the ISFSI or MRS must be identified. The extent of regional impacts must be determined on the...
Farrag, Nesrine S; Cheskin, Lawrence J; Farag, Mohamed K
2017-01-01
Childhood obesity has serious consequences both immediately and in adulthood. The rates of obesity in children and adolescents are rising rapidly in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. We systematically searched the literature to explore adverse effects associated with childhood obesity in this region and the management efforts for dealing with it. Inclusion criteria were: English-language, non-basic-science focused articles that used any of the standard obesity definitions and were conducted in the MENA countries within the last five years. We searched PubMed using combinations of key terms ((childhood) OR adolescence) AND obesity) AND (MENA or each country) AND ("last five years" [PDat]). Studies that examined adverse effects of childhood obesity gave fairly consistent results, revealing associations with higher blood pressure, pre-diabetes, metabolic abnormalities, and cardiovascular risk. Little or no overall effect on rates of childhood obesity has yet been demonstrated by interventions used to manage the problem. Obesity has a considerable impact on the health of children and adolescents, and the countries of the MENA region should endorse strategies and programs to prevent and manage this problem in an effective way.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
José Gómez-Navarro, Juan; María López-Romero, José; Palacios-Peña, Laura; Montávez, Juan Pedro; Jiménez-Guerrero, Pedro
2017-04-01
A critical challenge for assessing regional climate change projections relies on improving the estimate of atmospheric aerosol impact on clouds and reducing the uncertainty associated with the use of parameterizations. In this sense, the horizontal grid spacing implemented in state-of-the-art regional climate simulations is typically 10-25 kilometers, meaning that very important processes such as convective precipitation are smaller than a grid box, and therefore need to be parameterized. This causes large uncertainties, as closure assumptions and a number of parameters have to be established by model tuning. Convection is a physical process that may be strongly conditioned by atmospheric aerosols, although the solution of aerosol-cloud interactions in warm convective clouds remains nowadays a very important scientific challenge, rendering parametrization of these complex processes an important bottleneck that is responsible from a great part of the uncertainty in current climate change projections. Therefore, the explicit simulation of convective processes might improve the quality and reliability of the simulations of the aerosol-cloud interactions in a wide range of atmospheric phenomena. Particularly over the Mediterranean, the role of aerosol particles is very important, being this a crossroad that fuels the mixing of particles from different sources (sea-salt, biomass burning, anthropogenic, Saharan dust, etc). Still, the role of aerosols in extreme events in this area such as medicanes has been barely addressed. This work aims at assessing the role of aerosol-atmosphere interaction in medicanes with the help of the regional chemistry/climate on-line coupled model WRF-CHEM run at a convection-permitting resolution. The analysis is exemplary based on the "Rolf" medicane (6-8 November 2011). Using this case study as reference, four sets of simulations are run with two spatial resolutions: one at a convection-permitting configuration of 4 km, and other at the
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Palazzi, Elisa; Mortarini, Luca; Terzago, Silvia; von Hardenberg, Jost
2017-04-01
The enhancement of warming rates with elevation, the so-called elevation-dependent warming (EDW), is one of the clearest regional expressions of global warming. Real sentinels of climate and environmental changes, mountains have experienced more rapid and intense warming rates in the recent decades, leading to serious impacts on mountain ecosystems and downstream societies, some of which are already occurring. In this study we use the historical and scenario simulations of one state-of-the-art global climate model, the EC-Earth GCM, run at five different spatial resolutions, from ˜125 km to ˜16 km, to explore the existence, characteristics and driving mechanisms of EDW in three different mountain regions of the world - the Colorado Rocky Mountains, the Greater Alpine Region and the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayas. The aim of this study is twofold: to investigate the impact (if any) of increasing model resolution on the representation of EDW and to highlight possible differences in this phenomenon and its driving mechanisms in different mountain regions of the northern hemisphere. Preliminary results indicate that autumn (September to November) is the only season in which EDW is simulated by the model in both the maximum and the minimum temperature, in all three regions and across all model resolutions. Regional differences emerge in the other seasons: for example, the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayas is the only area in which EDW is detected in winter. As for the analysis of EDW drivers, we identify albedo and downward longwave radiation as being the most important variables for EDW, in all three areas considered and in all seasons. Further these results are robust to changes in model resolution, even though a clearer signal is associated with finer resolutions. We finally use the highest resolution EC-Earth simulations available (˜16 km) to identify what areas, within the three considered mountain ranges, are expected to undergo a significant reduction of snow or ice cover
Impact of Drug Policy on Regional Trends in Ezetimibe Use
Lu, Lingyun; Krumholz, Harlan M.; Tu, Jack V.; Ross, Joseph S.; Ko, Dennis T.; Jackevicius, Cynthia A.
2014-01-01
Background Ezetimibe use has steadily increased in Canada during the past decade even in the absence of evidence demonstrating a beneficial effect on clinical outcomes. Among the 4 most populated provinces in Canada, there is a gradient in the restrictiveness of ezetimibe in public-funded formularies (most to least strict: British Columbia, Alberta, Quebec and Ontario). The impact of formulary policy on the utilization of ezetimibe over time is unknown. Methods and Results We conducted a population-level cohort study using IMS Health Canada’s data from June 2003 to December 2012 to examine ezetimibe use in these 4 provinces to better understand the association between use and formulary restrictiveness. We found regional variations in the patterns of ezetimibe use. From June 2003 to December 2012, British Columbia(most restrictive) had the lowest monthly increasing rate from $261 to $21,926 ($190/100,000 population/month), whereas Ontario (least restrictive) had the most rapid monthly increase from $223 to $74,030 ($ 647/100,000 population/month); Quebec from $130 to $59,690 ($522/100,000 population/month) and Alberta from $356 to $ 37604 ($327/100,000 population/month) were intermediate. (P<0.001) Conclusions Ezetimibe use remains common, increasing over the past decade. Use steadily increased in provinces with the most lenient formularies. In contrast, use was lower, plateauing since 2008 in British Columbia and Alberta, which have more restrictive formularies. The gradient in ezetimibe use was related to variability in restrictiveness of the provincial formularies, illustrating the potential of a policy-response gradient that may be used to more effectively manage medication use. PMID:24895451
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Walker, E. L.; Hogue, T. S.; Anderson, A. M.; Read, L.
2015-12-01
In semi-arid basins across the world, the gap between water supply and demand is growing due to climate change, population growth, and shifts in agriculture and unconventional energy development. Water conservation efforts among residential and industrial water users, recycling and reuse techniques and innovative regulatory frameworks for water management strive to mitigate this gap, however, the extent of these strategies are often difficult to quantify and not included in modeling water allocations. Decision support systems (DSS) are purposeful for supporting water managers in making informed decisions when competing demands create the need to optimize water allocation between sectors. One region of particular interest is the semi-arid region of the South Platte River basin in northeastern Colorado, where anthropogenic and climatic effects are expected to increase the gap between water supply and demand in the near future. Specifically, water use in the South Platte is impacted by several high-intensity activities, including unconventional energy development, i.e. hydraulic fracturing, and large withdrawals for agriculture; these demands are in addition to a projected population increase of 100% by 2050. The current work describes the development of a DSS for the South Platte River basin, using the Water Evaluation and Planning system software (WEAP) to explore scenarios of how variation in future water use in the energy, agriculture, and municipal sectors will impact water allocation decisions. Detailed data collected on oil and gas water use in the Niobrara shale play will be utilized to predict future sector use. We also employ downscaled climate projections for the region to quantify the potential range of water availability in the basin under each scenario, and observe whether or not, and to what extent, climate may impact management decisions at the basin level.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Barthel, Roland; Büttner, Hannah; Nickel, Darla; Seidl, Roman
2015-04-01
discussion we therefore focus on the following three questions: • Can a stakeholder dialogue be successfully used to support the development of new, complex modelling systems, in particular at the regional scale? • What is the right timing for stakeholder interaction in the case of unclear problem definition - i.e. global (climate) change impact on regions where climate is not (yet) a threat to water or land use related demands and activities? • To what degree can scientists be motivated to carry out participatory research at all? We conclude that the PM process in GD was only partly successful because the project set overambitious goals, including the application of fundamentally new approaches to interdisciplinary science, the use of new modelling technologies, the focus upon and evaluation of potential and therefore characteristically uncertain future problems, including stakeholder demands, and the development of a ready-to-use, user-friendly tool. Furthermore, GD also showed that an externally and professionally moderated stakeholder dialogue is an absolute necessity to achieve successful participation of stakeholders in model development. The modelers themselves neither had the time, the skills and the ambitions to do this. Furthermore, there is a lack of incentives for scientists, particularly natural scientists, to commit to PM activities. Given the fact that the outcomes of PM are supposed to be relevant for societal decision making, this issue needs further attention.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Sagintayeva, Aida, Ed.; Kurakbayev, Kairat, Ed.
2013-01-01
Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Education presents conference proceedings of the annual Eurasian Higher Education Leaders' Forum held June 12-13, 2013, at Nazarbayev University. The theme of this year's Forum is "Global Trends in Higher Education and their Impact on the Region". Many internationally-recognized higher education…