Science.gov

Sample records for regional econmic impact

  1. Socioeconomic effects of power marketing alternatives for the Central Valley and Washoe Projects: 2005 regional econmic impact analysis using IMPLAN

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, D.M.; Godoy-Kain, P.; Gu, A.Y.; Ulibarri, C.A.

    1996-11-01

    The Western Area Power Administration (Western) was founded by the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 to market and transmit federal hydroelectric power in 15 western states outside the Pacific Northwest, which is served by the Bonneville Power Administration. Western is divided into four independent Customer Service Regions including the Sierra Nevada Region (Sierra Nevada), the focus of this report. The Central Valley Project (CVP) and the Washoe Project provide the primary power resources marketed by Sierra Nevada. Sierra Nevada also purchases and markets power generated by the Bonneville Power Administration, Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E), and various power pools. Sierra Nevada currently markets approximately 1,480 megawatts of power to 77 customers in northern and central California. These customers include investor-owned utilities, public utilities, government agencies, military bases, and irrigation districts. Methods and conclusions from an economic analysis are summarized concerning distributional effects of alternative actions that Sierra Nevada could take with it`s new marketing plan.

  2. Venus - Lavinia Region Impact Craters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    Three large meteorite impact craters, with diameters that range from 37 to 50 kilometers (23 to 31 miles), are seen in this image of the Lavinia region of Venus. The image is centered at 27 degrees south latitude and 339 degrees east longitude (longitude on Venus is measured from 0 degrees to 360 degrees east), and covers an area 550 kilometers (342 miles) wide by about 500 kilometers (311 miles) long. Situated in a region of fractured plains, the craters show many features typical of meteorite impact craters, including rough (bright) material around the rim, terraced inner walls and central peaks. Numerous domes, probably caused by volcanic activity, are seen in the southeastern corner of the mosaic. The domes range in diameter from 1 to 12 kilometers (0.6 to 7 miles). Some of the domes have central pits that are typical of some types of volcanoes. North is at the top of the image.

  3. CLIMATE IMPACTS ON REGIONAL WATER

    EPA Science Inventory

    The New England region (including the 6 New England
    states plus upstate New York) offers a very diverse geography,
    matched by an equally diverse economy and human
    population. Livelihoods throughout the region are based
    on service industries that depend heavily on comm...

  4. Regionalizing land use impacts on farmland birds.

    PubMed

    Glemnitz, Michael; Zander, Peter; Stachow, Ulrich

    2015-06-01

    The environmental impacts of land use vary regionally. Differences in geomorphology, climate, landscape structure, and biotope inventories are regarded as the main causes of this variation. We present a methodological approach for identifying regional responses in land use type to large-scale changes and the implications for the provision of habitat for farmland birds. The methodological innovations of this approach are (i) the coupling of impact assessments with economic models, (ii) the linking of cropping techniques at the plot scale with the regional distribution of land use, and (iii) the integration of statistical or monitoring data on recent states. This approach allows for the regional differentiation of farmers' responses to changing external conditions and for matching the ecological impacts of land use changes with regional environmental sensitivities. An exemplary scenario analysis was applied for a case study of an area in Germany, assessing the impacts of increased irrigation and the promotion of energy cropping on farmland birds, evaluated as a core indicator for farmland biodiversity. The potential effects on farmland birds were analyzed based on the intrinsic habitat values of the crops and cropping techniques. The results revealed that the strongest decrease in habitat availability for farmland birds occurred in regions with medium-to-low agricultural yields. As a result of the limited cropping alternatives, the increase in maize production was highest in marginal regions for both examined scenarios. Maize production replaced many crops with good-to-medium habitat suitability for birds. The declines in habitat quality were strongest in regions that are not in focus for conservation efforts for farmland birds.

  5. Regionalizing land use impacts on farmland birds.

    PubMed

    Glemnitz, Michael; Zander, Peter; Stachow, Ulrich

    2015-06-01

    The environmental impacts of land use vary regionally. Differences in geomorphology, climate, landscape structure, and biotope inventories are regarded as the main causes of this variation. We present a methodological approach for identifying regional responses in land use type to large-scale changes and the implications for the provision of habitat for farmland birds. The methodological innovations of this approach are (i) the coupling of impact assessments with economic models, (ii) the linking of cropping techniques at the plot scale with the regional distribution of land use, and (iii) the integration of statistical or monitoring data on recent states. This approach allows for the regional differentiation of farmers' responses to changing external conditions and for matching the ecological impacts of land use changes with regional environmental sensitivities. An exemplary scenario analysis was applied for a case study of an area in Germany, assessing the impacts of increased irrigation and the promotion of energy cropping on farmland birds, evaluated as a core indicator for farmland biodiversity. The potential effects on farmland birds were analyzed based on the intrinsic habitat values of the crops and cropping techniques. The results revealed that the strongest decrease in habitat availability for farmland birds occurred in regions with medium-to-low agricultural yields. As a result of the limited cropping alternatives, the increase in maize production was highest in marginal regions for both examined scenarios. Maize production replaced many crops with good-to-medium habitat suitability for birds. The declines in habitat quality were strongest in regions that are not in focus for conservation efforts for farmland birds. PMID:25957192

  6. The regional environmental impact of biomass production

    SciTech Connect

    Graham, R.L.

    1994-09-01

    The objective of this paper is to present a broad overview of the potential environmental impacts of biomass energy from energy crops. The subject is complex because the environmental impact of using biomass for energy must be considered in the context of alternative energy options while the environmental impact of producing biomass from energy crops must be considered in the context of the alternative land-uses. Using biomass-derived energy can reduce greenhouse gas emissions or increase them; growing biomass energy crops can enhance soil fertility or degrade it. Without knowing the context of the biomass energy, one can say little about its specific environmental impacts. The primary focus of this paper is an evaluation of the environmental impacts of growing energy crops. I present an approach for quantitatively evaluating the potential environmental impact of growing energy crops at a regional scale that accounts for the environmental and economic context of the crops. However, to set the stage for this discussion, I begin by comparing the environmental advantages and disadvantages of biomass-derived energy relative to other energy alternatives such as coal, hydropower, nuclear power, oil/gasoline, natural gas and photovoltaics.

  7. Venus - Impact Crater in Eastern Navka Region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    This Magellan image, which is 50 kilometers (31 miles) in width and 80 kilometers (50 miles) in length, is centered at 11.9 degrees latitude, 352 degrees longitude in the eastern Navka Region of Venus. The crater, which is approximately 8 kilometers (5 miles) in diameter, displays a butterfly symmetry pattern. The ejecta pattern most likely results from an oblique impact, where the impactor came from the south and ejected material to the north.

  8. LHC INTERACTION REGION QUADRUPOLE ERROR IMPACT STUDIES

    SciTech Connect

    FISCHER,W.; PTITSIN,V.; WEI,J.

    1999-09-07

    The performance of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at collision energy is limited by the field quality of the interaction region (IR) quadrupoles and dipoles. In this paper the authors study the impact of the expected field errors of these magnets on the dynamic aperture. The authors investigate different magnet arrangements and error strength. Based on the results they propose and evaluate a corrector layout to meet the required dynamic aperture performance in a companion paper.

  9. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watson, Robert T.; Zinyowera, Marufu C.; Moss, Richard H.

    1998-01-01

    The degree to which human conditions and the natural environment are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change is a key concern for governments and the environmental science community worldwide. This book from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides the best available base of scientific information for policymakers and public use. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health, and other resources for ten global regions. It also illustrates that the increasing costs of climate and climate variability, in terms of loss of human life and capital due to floods, storms, and droughts, are a result of the lack of adjustment and response in society's policies and use of resources. This book points to management options that would make many sectors more resilient to current variability in climate and thus help these sectors adapt to future changes in climate. This book will become the primary source of information on regional aspects of climate change for policymakers, the scientific community, and students.

  10. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watson, Robert T.; Zinyowera, Marufu C.; Moss, Richard H.

    1997-12-01

    The degree to which human conditions and the natural environment are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change is a key concern for governments and the environmental science community worldwide. This book from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides the best available base of scientific information for policymakers and public use. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health, and other resources for ten global regions. It also illustrates that the increasing costs of climate and climate variability, in terms of loss of human life and capital due to floods, storms, and droughts, are a result of the lack of adjustment and response in society's policies and use of resources. This book points to management options that would make many sectors more resilient to current variability in climate and thus help these sectors adapt to future changes in climate. This book will become the primary source of information on regional aspects of climate change for policymakers, the scientific community, and students.

  11. Impact Assessment of Watershed in Desert Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madhava Rao, V.; Hermon, R. R.; Kesava Rao, P.; Phanindra Kumar, T.

    2012-07-01

    Change detection from different temporal images usually based on reflectance on natural and human activity impact, using integrated GIS, Remote Sensing and image processing technologies enable impact assessment of watershed in desert region. A time series analysis of seasonal NDVI have been used to estimate net primary productivity, phonological characteristic of vegetative surface, length of growing season and dry drown periods (Ramsey et al., 1995). The study is designed to achieve the objectives to Study the changes in vegetation for selected watershed in a desert districts of Bhilwara, Barmer & Jaisalmer in Rajastan State of India, to identify the changes in density of vegetation, to assess the temporal changes and to assess the impact of the watershed, with an objective to conserve the soil erosion and harvest the rainwater in order to increase the ground water table, to improve the socio economic condition of the people and to stop the migration of the people from the villages in search of livelihood. These activities will have a direct impact on the crop production. The Changes in density of vegetation indicates the quantity of crop production and the growth of vegetation apart from crops and the conservation of land with out scrub/barren land to land with scrub. This gives an picture about the impact of watershed programme in increasing the vegetative cover. The temporal changes help in understanding the changes taken place in the watershed, and facilitate understand the positive as well as negative impacts of any decisions taken in the implementation. The extent and density and type of vegetation for the years, 2000,2004,2005,2007 and 2008, was studied and vegetation growth was analysed using GIS and Digital Image Processing techniques.

  12. Agriculture Impacts of Regional Nuclear Conflict

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xia, Lili; Robock, Alan; Mills, Michael; Toon, Owen Brian

    2013-04-01

    One of the major consequences of nuclear war would be climate change due to massive smoke injection into the atmosphere. Smoke from burning cities can be lofted into the stratosphere where it will have an e-folding lifetime more than 5 years. The climate changes include significant cooling, reduction of solar radiation, and reduction of precipitation. Each of these changes can affect agricultural productivity. To investigate the response from a regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan, we used the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer agricultural simulation model. We first evaluated the model by forcing it with daily weather data and management practices in China and the USA for rice, maize, wheat, and soybeans. Then we perturbed observed weather data using monthly climate anomalies for a 10-year period due to a simulated 5 Tg soot injection that could result from a regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan, using a total of 100 15 kt atomic bombs, much less than 1% of the current global nuclear arsenal. We computed anomalies using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE and NCAR's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). We perturbed each year of the observations with anomalies from each year of the 10-year nuclear war simulations. We found that different regions respond differently to a regional nuclear war; southern regions show slight increases of crop yields while in northern regions crop yields drop significantly. Sensitivity tests show that temperature changes due to nuclear war are more important than precipitation and solar radiation changes in affecting crop yields in the regions we studied. In total, crop production in China and the USA would decrease 15-50% averaged over the 10 years using both models' output. Simulations forced by ModelE output show smaller impacts than simulations forced by WACCM output at the end of the 10 year period because of the different temperature responses in the two models.

  13. Sustainable regional development and natural hazard impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrova, Elena; Svetlosanov, Vladimir; Kudin, Valery

    2016-04-01

    During the last decades, natural hazard impacts on social and economic development in many countries were increasing due to the expansion of human activities into the areas prone to natural risks as well as to increasing in number and severity of natural hazardous events caused by climate changes and other natural phenomena. The escalation of severe disasters (such as Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan 2011) triggered by natural hazards and related natural-technological and environmental events is increasingly threatening sustainable development at different levels from regional to global scale. In our study, we develop a model of ecological, economic and social sustainable development for the European part of Russia and the Republic of Belarus. The model consists of six blocks including 1) population, 2) environment, 3) mineral resources, 4) geographic space, 5) investments, and 6) food production and import. These blocks were created based on the analysis of the main processes at the regional level; all the blocks are closely interrelated between each other. Reaching the limit values of block parameters corresponds to a sharp deterioration of the system; as a result, the system can lose its stability. Aggravation of natural and natural-technological risk impacts on each block and should be taken into account in the model of regional development. Natural hazards can cause both strong influences and small but permanent perturbations. In both cases, a system can become unstable. The criterion for sustainable development is proposed. The Russian Foundation for Humanities and Belorussian Republican Foundation for Fundamental Research supported the study (project 15-22-01008).

  14. Impacts of wildfire smoke plumes on regional air quality

    EPA Science Inventory

    Background: Recent trends in increased frequency and severity of large fires necessitate an improved understanding of smoke plume impacts on regional-scale air quality and public health. Objective: We examine the impact of fire smoke on regional air quality between 2006 and 2013 ...

  15. Regional economic impacts of Grand Canyon river runners.

    PubMed

    Hjerpe, Evan E; Kim, Yeon-Su

    2007-10-01

    Economic impact analysis (EIA) of outdoor recreation can provide critical social information concerning the utilization of natural resources. Outdoor recreation and other non-consumptive uses of resources are viewed as environmentally friendly alternatives to extractive-type industries. While outdoor recreation can be an appropriate use of resources, it generates both beneficial and adverse socioeconomic impacts on rural communities. The authors used EIA to assess the regional economic impacts of rafting in Grand Canyon National Park. The Grand Canyon region of northern Arizona represents a rural US economy that is highly dependent upon tourism and recreational expenditures. The purpose of this research is twofold. The first is to ascertain the previously unknown regional economic impacts of Grand Canyon river runners. The second purpose is to examine attributes of these economic impacts in terms of regional multipliers, leakage, and types of employment created. Most of the literature on economic impacts of outdoor recreation has focused strictly on the positive economic impacts, failing to illuminate the coinciding adverse and constraining economic impacts. Examining the attributes of economic impacts can highlight deficiencies and constraints that limit the economic benefits of recreation and tourism. Regional expenditure information was obtained by surveying non-commercial boaters and commercial outfitters. The authors used IMPLAN input-output modeling to assess direct, indirect, and induced effects of Grand Canyon river runners. Multipliers were calculated for output, employment, and income. Over 22,000 people rafted on the Colorado River through Grand Canyon National Park in 2001, resulting in an estimated $21,100,000 of regional expenditures to the greater Grand Canyon economy. However, over 50% of all rafting-related expenditures were not captured by the regional economy and many of the jobs created by the rafting industry are lower-wage and seasonal. Policy

  16. Regional economic impacts of Grand Canyon river runners.

    PubMed

    Hjerpe, Evan E; Kim, Yeon-Su

    2007-10-01

    Economic impact analysis (EIA) of outdoor recreation can provide critical social information concerning the utilization of natural resources. Outdoor recreation and other non-consumptive uses of resources are viewed as environmentally friendly alternatives to extractive-type industries. While outdoor recreation can be an appropriate use of resources, it generates both beneficial and adverse socioeconomic impacts on rural communities. The authors used EIA to assess the regional economic impacts of rafting in Grand Canyon National Park. The Grand Canyon region of northern Arizona represents a rural US economy that is highly dependent upon tourism and recreational expenditures. The purpose of this research is twofold. The first is to ascertain the previously unknown regional economic impacts of Grand Canyon river runners. The second purpose is to examine attributes of these economic impacts in terms of regional multipliers, leakage, and types of employment created. Most of the literature on economic impacts of outdoor recreation has focused strictly on the positive economic impacts, failing to illuminate the coinciding adverse and constraining economic impacts. Examining the attributes of economic impacts can highlight deficiencies and constraints that limit the economic benefits of recreation and tourism. Regional expenditure information was obtained by surveying non-commercial boaters and commercial outfitters. The authors used IMPLAN input-output modeling to assess direct, indirect, and induced effects of Grand Canyon river runners. Multipliers were calculated for output, employment, and income. Over 22,000 people rafted on the Colorado River through Grand Canyon National Park in 2001, resulting in an estimated $21,100,000 of regional expenditures to the greater Grand Canyon economy. However, over 50% of all rafting-related expenditures were not captured by the regional economy and many of the jobs created by the rafting industry are lower-wage and seasonal. Policy

  17. Regional, Rural Home ABE Program Spells Impact.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vachon, Claude

    Maine's State Division of Adult Education began setting up a regionalized Adult Basic Education (ABE) program in rural Franklin county in 1974 to serve the area's functional illiterates. Located in the building housing the Franklin County Community Action Program (CAP), linkages were developed with a large number of agencies; initially the 10 CAP…

  18. Impacts on regional climate of Amazon deforestation

    SciTech Connect

    Dickinson, R.E.; Kennedy, P. NCAR, Boulder, CO )

    1992-10-01

    A simulation of the climate response to Amazon deforestation has been carried out. Precipitation is decreased on the average by 25 percent or 1.4 mm/day, with ET and runoff both decreasing by 0.7 mm/day. Modifications of surface energy balance through change of albedo and roughness are complicated by cloud feedbacks. The initial decrease of the absorption of solar radiation by higher surface albedos is largely cancelled by a reduction in cloud cover, but consequent reduction in downward longwave has a substantial impact on surface energy balance. Smoke aerosols might have an effect comparable to deforestation during burning season. 8 refs.

  19. Potential Impacts of Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winkler, J. A.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is projected to have substantial impacts in the Great Lakes region of the United States. One intent of this presentation is to introduce the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments Center (GLISA), a recently-funded NOAA RISA center. The goals and unique organizational structure of GLISA will be described along with core activities that support impact and assessment studies in the region. Additionally, observed trends in temperature, precipitation including lake effect snowfall, and lake temperatures and ice cover will be summarized for the Great Lakes region, and vulnerabilities to, and potential impacts of, climate change will be surveyed for critical natural and human systems. These include forest ecosystems, water resources, traditional and specialized agriculture, and tourism/recreation. Impacts and vulnerabilities unique to the Great Lakes region are emphasized.

  20. Climate impacts on northern Canada: regional background.

    PubMed

    Prowse, Terry D; Furgal, Chris; Bonsal, Barrie R; Peters, Daniel L

    2009-07-01

    Understanding the implications of climate change on northern Canada requires a background about the size and diversity of its human and biogeophysical systems. Occupying an area of almost 40% of Canada, with one-third of this contained in Arctic islands, Canada's northern territories consist of a diversity of physical environments unrivaled around the circumpolar north. Major ecozones composed of a range of landforms, climate, vegetation, and wildlife include: Arctic, boreal and taiga cordillera; boreal and taiga plains; taiga shield; and northern and southern Arctic. Although generally characterized by a cold climate, there is an enormous range in air temperature with mean annual values being as high as -5 degrees C in the south to as low as -20 degrees C in the high Arctic islands. A similar contrast characterizes precipitation, which can be > 700 mm y(-1) in some southern alpine regions to as low as 50 mm y(-1) over islands of the high Arctic. Major freshwater resources are found within most northern ecozones, varying from large glaciers or ice caps and lakes to extensive wetlands and peat lands. Most of the North's renewable water, however, is found within its major river networks and originates in more southerly headwaters. Ice covers characterize the freshwater systems for multiple months of the year while permafrost prevails in various forms, dominating the terrestrial landscape. The marine environment, which envelops the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, is dominated by seasonal to multiyear sea ice often several meters thick that plays a key role in the regional climate. Almost two-thirds of northern Canadian communities are located along coastlines with the entire population being just over 100 000. Most recent population growth has been dominated by an expansion of nonaboriginals, primarily the result of resource development and the growth of public administration. The economies of northern communities, however, remain quite mixed with traditional land

  1. Climate impacts on northern Canada: regional background.

    PubMed

    Prowse, Terry D; Furgal, Chris; Bonsal, Barrie R; Peters, Daniel L

    2009-07-01

    Understanding the implications of climate change on northern Canada requires a background about the size and diversity of its human and biogeophysical systems. Occupying an area of almost 40% of Canada, with one-third of this contained in Arctic islands, Canada's northern territories consist of a diversity of physical environments unrivaled around the circumpolar north. Major ecozones composed of a range of landforms, climate, vegetation, and wildlife include: Arctic, boreal and taiga cordillera; boreal and taiga plains; taiga shield; and northern and southern Arctic. Although generally characterized by a cold climate, there is an enormous range in air temperature with mean annual values being as high as -5 degrees C in the south to as low as -20 degrees C in the high Arctic islands. A similar contrast characterizes precipitation, which can be > 700 mm y(-1) in some southern alpine regions to as low as 50 mm y(-1) over islands of the high Arctic. Major freshwater resources are found within most northern ecozones, varying from large glaciers or ice caps and lakes to extensive wetlands and peat lands. Most of the North's renewable water, however, is found within its major river networks and originates in more southerly headwaters. Ice covers characterize the freshwater systems for multiple months of the year while permafrost prevails in various forms, dominating the terrestrial landscape. The marine environment, which envelops the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, is dominated by seasonal to multiyear sea ice often several meters thick that plays a key role in the regional climate. Almost two-thirds of northern Canadian communities are located along coastlines with the entire population being just over 100 000. Most recent population growth has been dominated by an expansion of nonaboriginals, primarily the result of resource development and the growth of public administration. The economies of northern communities, however, remain quite mixed with traditional land

  2. Impacts of climate change on mangrove ecosystems: A region by region overview

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ward, Raymond D.; Friess, Daniel A.; Day, Richard H.; MacKenzie, Richard A.

    2016-01-01

    Inter-related and spatially variable climate change factors including sea level rise, increased storminess, altered precipitation regime and increasing temperature are impacting mangroves at regional scales. This review highlights extreme regional variation in climate change threats and impacts, and how these factors impact the structure of mangrove communities, their biodiversity and geomorphological setting. All these factors interplay to determine spatially variable resiliency to climate change impacts, and because mangroves are varied in type and geographical location, these systems are good models for understanding such interactions at different scales. Sea level rise is likely to influence mangroves in all regions although local impacts are likely to be more varied. Changes in the frequency and intensity of storminess are likely to have a greater impact on N and Central America, Asia, Australia, and East Africa than West Africa and S. America. This review also highlights the numerous geographical knowledge gaps of climate change impacts, with some regions particularly understudied (e.g., Africa and the Middle East). While there has been a recent drive to address these knowledge gaps especially in South America and Asia, further research is required to allow researchers to tease apart the processes that influence both vulnerability and resilience to climate change. A more globally representative view of mangroves would allow us to better understand the importance of mangrove type and landscape setting in determining system resiliency to future climate change.

  3. Regional Scale Analyses of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolfe, D. W.; Hayhoe, K.

    2006-12-01

    New statistically downscaled climate modeling techniques provide an opportunity for improved regional analysis of climate change impacts on agriculture. Climate modeling outputs can often simultaneously meet the needs of those studying impacts on natural as well as managed ecosystems. Climate outputs can be used to drive existing forest or crop models, or livestock models (e.g., temperature-humidity index model predicting dairy milk production) for improved information on regional impact. High spatial resolution climate forecasts, combined with knowledge of seasonal temperatures or rainfall constraining species ranges, can be used to predict shifts in suitable habitat for invasive weeds, insects, and pathogens, as well as cash crops. Examples of climate thresholds affecting species range and species composition include: minimum winter temperature, duration of winter chilling (vernalization) hours (e.g., hours below 7.2 C), frost-free period, and frequency of high temperature stress days in summer. High resolution climate outputs can also be used to drive existing integrated pest management models predicting crop insect and disease pressure. Collectively, these analyses can be used to test hypotheses or provide insight into the impact of future climate change scenarios on species range shifts and threat from invasives, shifts in crop production zones, and timing and regional variation in economic impacts.

  4. Transboundary impacts on regional ground water modeling in Texas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rainwater, K.; Stovall, J.; Frailey, S.; Urban, L.

    2005-01-01

    Recent legislation required regional grassroots water resources planning across the entire state of Texas. The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB), the state's primary water resource planning agency, divided the state into 16 planning regions. Each planning group developed plans to manage both ground water and surface water sources and to meet future demands of various combinations of domestic, agricultural, municipal, and industrial water consumers. This presentation describes the challenges in developing a ground water model for the Llano Estacado Regional Water Planning Group (LERWPG), whose region includes 21 counties in the Southern High Plains of Texas. While surface water is supplied to several cities in this region, the vast majority of the regional water use comes from the High Plains aquifer system, often locally referred to as the Ogallala Aquifer. Over 95% of the ground water demand is for irrigated agriculture. The LERWPG had to predict the impact of future TWDB-projected water demands, as provided by the TWDB, on the aquifer for the period 2000 to 2050. If detrimental impacts were noted, alternative management strategies must be proposed. While much effort was spent on evaluating the current status of the ground water reserves, an appropriate numerical model of the aquifer system was necessary to demonstrate future impacts of the predicted withdrawals as well as the effects of the alternative strategies. The modeling effort was completed in the summer of 2000. This presentation concentrates on the political, scientific, and nontechnical issues in this planning process that complicated the modeling effort. Uncertainties in data, most significantly in distribution and intensity of recharge and withdrawals, significantly impacted the calibration and predictive modeling efforts. Four predictive scenarios, including baseline projections, recurrence of the drought of record, precipitation enhancement, and reduced irrigation demand, were simulated to

  5. Transboundary impacts on regional ground water modeling in Texas.

    PubMed

    Rainwater, Ken; Stovall, Jeff; Frailey, Scott; Urban, Lloyd

    2005-01-01

    Recent legislation required regional grassroots water resources planning across the entire state of Texas. The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB), the state's primary water resource planning agency, divided the state into 16 planning regions. Each planning group developed plans to manage both ground water and surface water sources and to meet future demands of various combinations of domestic, agricultural, municipal, and industrial water consumers. This presentation describes the challenges in developing a ground water model for the Llano Estacado Regional Water Planning Group (LERWPG), whose region includes 21 counties in the Southern High Plains of Texas. While surface water is supplied to several cities in this region, the vast majority of the regional water use comes from the High Plains aquifer system, often locally referred to as the Ogallala Aquifer. Over 95% of the ground water demand is for irrigated agriculture. The LERWPG had to predict the impact of future TWDB-projected water demands, as provided by the TWDB, on the aquifer for the period 2000 to 2050. If detrimental impacts were noted, alternative management strategies must be proposed. While much effort was spent on evaluating the current status of the ground water reserves, an appropriate numerical model of the aquifer system was necessary to demonstrate future impacts of the predicted withdrawals as well as the effects of the alternative strategies. The modeling effort was completed in the summer of 2000. This presentation concentrates on the political, scientific, and nontechnical issues in this planning process that complicated the modeling effort. Uncertainties in data, most significantly in distribution and intensity of recharge and withdrawals, significantly impacted the calibration and predictive modeling efforts. Four predictive scenarios, including baseline projections, recurrence of the drought of record, precipitation enhancement, and reduced irrigation demand, were simulated to

  6. Impact of Asia Dust Aerosols on Regional Environment and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, J.

    2015-12-01

    East Asia is a major dust source in the world and has great impacts on regional climate in Asia, where the large arid and semi-arid regions are. In this study, the typical transport paths of East Asia dust, which affect regional and global climates, are demonstrated and numerous effects of dust aerosols on clouds and precipitation primarily over East Asian arid and semi-arid regions are discussed. Compared with the dust aerosols of Saharan, those of East Asian are more absorptive of solar radiation, and can influence the cloud properties not only by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei but also through changing the relative humidity and stability of the atmosphere (via semi-direct effect). Converting visible light to thermal energy, dust aerosols can burn clouds to produce a warming effect on climate, which is opposite to the first and second indirect effects of aerosols. Over Asia arid and semi-arid regions, the positive feedback in the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction may aggravate drought in its inner land. Impact of Asia dust on regional environment, especially on haze weather, are also presented in this talk.

  7. Regional Climate Change Impacts in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayhoe, K.; Burkett, V.; Grimm, N.; McCarthy, J.; Miles, E.; Overpeck, J.; Shea, E.; Wuebbles, D.

    2009-05-01

    Climate change will affect one region differently from another. For that reason, the U.S. Unified Synthesis Product "Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States" broke down its assessment of climate change impacts on the country into 8 regions. Key highlights include: In the Northeast, agricultural production, including dairy, fruit, and maple syrup, will be increasingly affected as favorable climates shift northward. In the Southeast, accelerated sea-level rise and increased hurricane intensity will have serious impacts. In the Midwest, under higher emissions scenarios, significant reductions in Great Lakes water levels will impact shipping, infrastructure, beaches, and ecosystems. In the Great Plains, projected increases in temperature, evaporation, and drought frequency exacerbate concerns regarding the region's declining water resources. In the Southwest, water supplies will become increasingly scarce, calling for trade-offs among competing uses, and potentially leading to conflict. In the Northwest, salmon and other cold-water species will experience additional stresses as a result of rising water temperatures and declining summer streamflows. In Alaska, thawing permafrost damages roads, runways, water and sewer systems, and other infrastructure. And in the U.S. islands in the Caribbean and Pacific, climate changes affecting coastal and marine ecosystems will have major implications for tourism and fisheries. In addition, significant sea-level rise and storm surge will affect coastal cities and ecosystems around the nation; low-lying and subsiding areas are most vulnerable.

  8. Potential climatic impacts of vegetation change: A regional modeling study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Copeland, J.H.; Pielke, R.A.; Kittel, T.G.F.

    1996-01-01

    The human species has been modifying the landscape long before the development of modern agrarian techniques. Much of the land area of the conterminous United States is currently used for agricultural production. In certain regions this change in vegetative cover from its natural state may have led to local climatic change. A regional climate version of the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System was used to assess the impact of a natural versus current vegetation distribution on the weather and climate of July 1989. The results indicate that coherent regions of substantial changes, of both positive and negative sign, in screen height temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation are a possible consequence of land use change throughout the United States. The simulated changes in the screen height quantities were closely related to changes in the vegetation parameters of albedo, roughness length, leaf area index, and fractional coverage. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

  9. Impacts of Groundwater Pumping on Regional and Global Water Resources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wada, Yoshihide

    2016-01-01

    Except frozen water in ice and glaciers (68%), groundwater is the world's largest distributed store of freshwater (30%), and has strategic importance to global food and water security. In this chapter, the most recent advances assessing human impact on regional and global groundwater resources are reviewed. This chapter critically evaluates the recently advanced modeling approaches quantifying the effect of groundwater pumping in regional and global groundwater resources and the evidence of feedback to the Earth system including sea-level rise associated with groundwater use. At last, critical challenges and opportunities are identified in the use of groundwater to adapt to growing food demand and uncertain climate.

  10. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

    PubMed Central

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C.; Gray, Lesley J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Harder, Jerald W.; Knight, Jeff R.; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C.; Wood, Richard A.

    2015-01-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. PMID:26102364

  11. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C.; Gray, Lesley J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Harder, Jerald W.; Knight, Jeff R.; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C.; Wood, Richard A.

    2015-06-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

  12. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

    PubMed

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C; Gray, Lesley J; Scaife, Adam A; Dunstone, Nick J; Harder, Jerald W; Knight, Jeff R; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C; Wood, Richard A

    2015-01-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. PMID:26102364

  13. Local and Regional Impacts of Large Scale Wind Energy Deployment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michalakes, J.; Hammond, S.; Lundquist, J. K.; Moriarty, P.; Robinson, M.

    2010-12-01

    The U.S. is currently on a path to produce 20% of its electricity from wind energy by 2030, almost a 10-fold increase over present levels of electricity generated from wind. Such high-penetration wind energy deployment will entail extracting elevated energy levels from the planetary boundary layer and preliminary studies indicate that this will have significant but uncertain impacts on the local and regional environment. State and federal regulators have raised serious concerns regarding potential agricultural impacts from large farms deployed throughout the Midwest where agriculture is the basis of the local economy. The effects of large wind farms have been proposed to be both beneficial (drying crops to reduce occurrences of fungal diseases, avoiding late spring freezes, enhancing pollen viability, reducing dew duration) and detrimental (accelerating moisture loss during drought) with no conclusive investigations thus far. As both wind and solar technologies are deployed at scales required to replace conventional technologies, there must be reasonable certainty that the potential environmental impacts at the micro, macro, regional and global scale do not exceed those anticipated from carbon emissions. Largely because of computational limits, the role of large wind farms in affecting regional-scale weather patterns has only been investigated in coarse simulations and modeling tools do not yet exist which are capable of assessing the downwind affects of large wind farms may have on microclimatology. In this presentation, we will outline the vision for and discuss technical and scientific challenges in developing a multi-model high-performance simulation capability covering the range of mesoscale to sub-millimeter scales appropriate for assessing local, regional, and ultimately global environmental impacts and quantifying uncertainties of large scale wind energy deployment scenarios. Such a system will allow continuous downscaling of atmospheric processes on wind

  14. Regional Risk Assessment for climate change impacts on coastal aquifers.

    PubMed

    Iyalomhe, F; Rizzi, J; Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2015-12-15

    Coastal aquifers have been identified as particularly vulnerable to impacts on water quantity and quality due to the high density of socio-economic activities and human assets in coastal regions and to the projected rising sea levels, contributing to the process of saltwater intrusion. This paper proposes a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrated with a chain of numerical models to evaluate potential climate change-related impacts on coastal aquifers and linked natural and human systems (i.e., wells, river, agricultural areas, lakes, forests and semi-natural environments). The RRA methodology employs Multi Criteria Decision Analysis methods and Geographic Information Systems functionalities to integrate heterogeneous spatial data on hazard, susceptibility and risk for saltwater intrusion and groundwater level variation. The proposed approach was applied on the Esino River basin (Italy) using future climate hazard scenarios based on a chain of climate, hydrological, hydraulic and groundwater system models running at different spatial scales. Models were forced with the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the period 2071-2100 over four seasons (i.e., winter, spring, summer and autumn). Results indicate that in future seasons, climate change will cause few impacts on the lower Esino River valley. Groundwater level decrease will have limited effects: agricultural areas, forests and semi-natural environments will be at risk only in a region close to the coastline which covers less than 5% of the total surface of the considered receptors; less than 3.5% of the wells will be exposed in the worst scenario. Saltwater intrusion impact in future scenarios will be restricted to a narrow region close to the coastline (only few hundred meters), and thus it is expected to have very limited effects on the Esino coastal aquifer with no consequences on the considered natural and human systems.

  15. Regional Risk Assessment for climate change impacts on coastal aquifers.

    PubMed

    Iyalomhe, F; Rizzi, J; Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2015-12-15

    Coastal aquifers have been identified as particularly vulnerable to impacts on water quantity and quality due to the high density of socio-economic activities and human assets in coastal regions and to the projected rising sea levels, contributing to the process of saltwater intrusion. This paper proposes a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrated with a chain of numerical models to evaluate potential climate change-related impacts on coastal aquifers and linked natural and human systems (i.e., wells, river, agricultural areas, lakes, forests and semi-natural environments). The RRA methodology employs Multi Criteria Decision Analysis methods and Geographic Information Systems functionalities to integrate heterogeneous spatial data on hazard, susceptibility and risk for saltwater intrusion and groundwater level variation. The proposed approach was applied on the Esino River basin (Italy) using future climate hazard scenarios based on a chain of climate, hydrological, hydraulic and groundwater system models running at different spatial scales. Models were forced with the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the period 2071-2100 over four seasons (i.e., winter, spring, summer and autumn). Results indicate that in future seasons, climate change will cause few impacts on the lower Esino River valley. Groundwater level decrease will have limited effects: agricultural areas, forests and semi-natural environments will be at risk only in a region close to the coastline which covers less than 5% of the total surface of the considered receptors; less than 3.5% of the wells will be exposed in the worst scenario. Saltwater intrusion impact in future scenarios will be restricted to a narrow region close to the coastline (only few hundred meters), and thus it is expected to have very limited effects on the Esino coastal aquifer with no consequences on the considered natural and human systems. PMID:26282744

  16. Regional environmental impacts of methanol-fueled vehicles. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Belian, T.; Morris, R.E.; Ligocki, M.P.; Whitten, G.Z.

    1991-12-27

    The objectives of the study were to obtain, through simulation modeling, preliminary estimates of the regional environmental impacts methanol-fueled vehicles and to estimate the sensitivity of the model to important parameters and assumptions that affect the calculation of the impacts. The regional environmental effects of the use of M85 fuel (85 percent methanol and 15 percent gasoline) and M100 (neat methanol) relative to gasoline (an indoline blend) were estimated using a Lagrangian (trajectory) acid deposition model. The Comprehensive Chemistry Acid Deposition Model (CCADM), contains a detailed treatment of gas-phase and aqueous-phase chemistry and associated mass transfer, but provides for a less comprehensive representation of advection and diffusion. Two different meteorological regimes were analyzed: clear sky conditions and cloudy skies with a rain event. The study also included a review of gas- and aqueous-phase chemistry, with particular emphasis on methanol. The CCADM chemical mechanism was updated to include state-of-the-science (as of 1990) gas- and aqueous-phase chemistry including methanol chemistry. The CCADM was then used to analyze the regional environmental impacts from the use of methanol fuels. In performing such an analysis it was necessary to make several assumptions. The sensitivity of the analysis was examined through a series of simulations that varied key input parameters within their ranges of uncertainty.

  17. Ensemble-based Regional Climate Prediction: Political Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miguel, E.; Dykema, J.; Satyanath, S.; Anderson, J. G.

    2008-12-01

    Accurate forecasts of regional climate, including temperature and precipitation, have significant implications for human activities, not just economically but socially. Sub Saharan Africa is a region that has displayed an exceptional propensity for devastating civil wars. Recent research in political economy has revealed a strong statistical relationship between year to year fluctuations in precipitation and civil conflict in this region in the 1980s and 1990s. To investigate how climate change may modify the regional risk of civil conflict in the future requires a probabilistic regional forecast that explicitly accounts for the community's uncertainty in the evolution of rainfall under anthropogenic forcing. We approach the regional climate prediction aspect of this question through the application of a recently demonstrated method called generalized scalar prediction (Leroy et al. 2009), which predicts arbitrary scalar quantities of the climate system. This prediction method can predict change in any variable or linear combination of variables of the climate system averaged over a wide range spatial scales, from regional to hemispheric to global. Generalized scalar prediction utilizes an ensemble of model predictions to represent the community's uncertainty range in climate modeling in combination with a timeseries of any type of observational data that exhibits sensitivity to the scalar of interest. It is not necessary to prioritize models in deriving with the final prediction. We present the results of the application of generalized scalar prediction for regional forecasts of temperature and precipitation and Sub Saharan Africa. We utilize the climate predictions along with the established statistical relationship between year-to-year rainfall variability in Sub Saharan Africa to investigate the potential impact of climate change on civil conflict within that region.

  18. Determining long-term regional erosion rates using impact craters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hergarten, Stefan; Kenkmann, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    More than 300,000 impact craters have been found on Mars, while the surface of Moon's highlands is even saturated with craters. In contrast, only 184 impact craters have been confirmed on Earth so far with only 125 of them exposed at the surface. The spatial distribution of these impact craters is highly inhomogeneous. Beside the large variation in the age of the crust, consumption of craters by erosion and burial by sediments are the main actors being responsible for the quite small and inhomogeneous crater record. In this study we present a novel approach to infer long-term average erosion rates at regional scales from the terrestrial crater inventory. The basic idea behind this approach is a dynamic equilibrium between the production of new craters and their consumption by erosion. It is assumed that each crater remains detectable until the total erosion after the impact exceeds a characteristic depth depending on the crater's diameter. Combining this model with the terrestrial crater production rate, i.e., the number of craters per unit area and time as a function of their diameter, allows for a prediction of the expected number of craters in a given region as a function of the erosion rate. Using the real crater inventory, this relationship can be inverted to determine the regional long-term erosion rate and its statistical uncertainty. A limitation by the finite age of the crust can also be taken into account. Applying the method to the Colorado Plateau and the Deccan Traps, both being regions with a distinct geological history, yields erosion rates in excellent agreement with those obtained by other, more laborious methods. However, these rates are formally exposed to large statistical uncertainties due to the small number of impact craters. As higher crater densities are related to lower erosion rates, smaller statistical errors can be expected when large regions in old parts of the crust are considered. Very low long-term erosion rates of less than 4

  19. Earth Impact Effects Program: Estimating the Regional Environmental Consequences of Impacts On Earth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collins, G. S.; Melosh, H. J.; Marcus, R. A.

    2009-12-01

    The Earth Impact Effects Program (www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects) is a popular web-based calculator for estimating the regional environmental consequences of a comet or asteroid impact on Earth. It is widely used, both by inquisitive members of the public as an educational device and by scientists as a simple research tool. It applies a variety of scaling laws, based on theory, nuclear explosion test data, observations from terrestrial and extraterrestrial craters and the results of small-scale impact experiments and numerical modelling, to quantify the principal hazards that might affect the people, buildings and landscape in the vicinity of an impact. The program requires six inputs: impactor diameter, impactor density, impact velocity prior to atmospheric entry, impact angle, and the target type (sedimentary rock, crystalline rock, or a water layer above rock), as well as the distance from the impact at which the environmental effects are to be calculated. The program includes simple algorithms for estimating the fate of the impactor during atmospheric traverse, the thermal radiation emitted by the impact plume (fireball) and the intensity of seismic shaking. The program also approximates various dimensions of the impact crater and ejecta deposit, as well as estimating the severity of the air blast in both crater-forming and airburst impacts. We illustrate the strengths and limitations of the program by comparing its predictions (where possible) against known impacts, such as Carancas, Peru (2007); Tunguska, Siberia (1908); Barringer (Meteor) crater, Arizona (ca 49 ka). These tests demonstrate that, while adequate for large impactors, the simple approximation of atmospheric entry in the original program does not properly account for the disruption and dispersal of small impactors as they traverse Earth's atmosphere. We describe recent improvements to the calculator to better describe atmospheric entry of small meteors; the consequences of oceanic impacts; and

  20. Urban, Regional and Global Impacts of Biomass Burning Emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Artaxo, P.; Ferreira De Brito, J.; Barbosa, H. M.; Rizzo, L. V.; Setzer, A.; Cirino, G.

    2013-05-01

    Biomass burning is a major regional and global driver for atmospheric composition. Its effects in regional and global climate are very significant, but still difficult to assess. Even in large urban areas in Latin America such as Mexico City, Sao Paulo and Santiago, and in developed areas such as Paris and Californian cities it is possible to observe significant biomass burning effects air quality. The wood burning components as well as inner city and vicinities burning if agricultural residues impact heavily the concentration of organic aerosol, carbon monoxide and ozone in urban areas. Regionally, regions such as Amazonia and Central America show large plumes of smoke that extend their impact over continental areas, with changes in the radiation balance, air quality and climate. The deforestation rate in Amazonia have dropped strongly from 27,000 Km2 in 2004 to 6,200 Km2 in 2011, a very significant reduction, but this reduction was not observed in Africa and Southeast Asia. Health effects of biomass burning emissions are very significant, and observed in several key regions. Remote sensing techniques for fire detection have progressed significantly and long time series (10-15 years) are now feasible. The black carbon associated with biomass burning has important impacts in formation and development of clouds in Amazonia and other regions. The organic component of biomass burning emissions scatter light and increase diffuse radiation that alters carbon uptake in large regions of Amazonia and certainly other forested areas. Increase of up to 30% in carbon uptake associated with biomass burning emissions was observed in Amazonia, as part of the LBA Experiment. New analytical methods that quantify the absorption angstrom exponent of biomass burning and fossil fuel black carbon (BC) can differentiate BC from different burning sources. In addition, the hygroscopic properties of particles with a core shell of BC coated with organic compounds can be measured and shows

  1. Renewable biomass energy: Understanding regional scale environmental impacts

    SciTech Connect

    Graham, R.L.; Downing, M.

    1993-12-31

    If biomass energy is to become a significant component of the US energy sector, millions of acres of farmland must be converted to energy crops. The environmental implications of this change in land use must be quantitatively evaluated. The land use changes will be largely driven by economic considerations. Farmers will grow energy crops when it is profitable to do so. Thus, models which purport to predict environmental changes induced by energy crop production must take into account those economic features which will influence land use change. In this paper, we present an approach for projecting the probable environmental impacts of growing energy crops at the regional scale. The approach takes into account both economic and environmental factors. We demonstrate the approach by analyzing, at a county-level the probable impact of switchgrass production on erosion, evapotranspiration, nitrate in runoff, and phosphorous fertilizer use in multi-county subregions within the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) region. Our results show that the adoption of switchgrass production will have different impacts in each subregion as a result of differences in the initial land use and soil conditions in the subregions. Erosion, evapotranspiration, and nitrate in runoff are projected to decrease in both subregions as switchgrass displaces the current crops. Phosphorous fertilizer applications are likely to increase in one subregion and decrease in the other due to initial differences in the types of conventional crops grown in each subregion. Overall these changes portend an improvement in water quality in the subregions with the increasing adoption of switchgrass.

  2. Impact effects and regional tectonic insights: Backstripping the Chesapeake Bay impact structure

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hayden, T.; Kominz, M.; Powars, D.S.; Edwards, L.E.; Miller, K.G.; Browning, J.V.; Kulpecz, A.A.

    2008-01-01

    The Chesapeake Bay impact structure is a ca. 35.4 Ma crater located on the eastern seaboard of North America. Deposition returned to normal shortly after impact, resulting in a unique record of both impact-related and subsequent passive margin sedimentation. We use backstripping to show that the impact strongly affected sedimentation for 7 m.y. through impact-derived crustal-scale tectonics, dominated by the effects of sediment compaction and the introduction and subsequent removal of a negative thermal anomaly instead of the expected positive thermal anomaly. After this, the area was dominated by passive margin thermal subsidence overprinted by periods of regional-scale vertical tectonic events, on the order of tens of meters. Loading due to prograding sediment bodies may have generated these events. ?? 2008 The Geological Society of America.

  3. Salinity Impacts on Agriculture and Groundwater in Delta Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clarke, D.; Salehin, M.; Jairuddin, M.; Saleh, A. F. M.; Rahman, M. M.; Parks, K. E.; Haque, M. A.; Lázár, A. N.; Payo, A.

    2015-12-01

    Delta regions are attractive for high intensity agriculture due to the availability of rich sedimentary soils and of fresh water. Many of the world's tropical deltas support high population densities which are reliant on irrigated agriculture. However environmental changes such as sea level rise, tidal inundation and reduced river flows have reduced the quantity and quality of water available for successful agriculture. Additionally, anthropogenic influences such as the over abstraction of ground water and the increased use of low quality water from river inlets has resulted in the accumulation of salts in the soils which diminishes crop productivity. Communities based in these regions are usually reliant on the same water for drinking and cooking because surface water is frequently contaminated by commercial and urban pollution. The expansion of shallow tube well systems for drinking water and agricultural use over the last few decades has resulted in mobilisation of salinity in the coastal and estuarine fringes. Sustainable development in delta regions is becoming constrained by water salinity. However salinity is often studied as an independent issue by specialists working in the fields of agriculture, community water supply and groundwater. The lack of interaction between these disciplines often results in corrective actions being applied to one sector without fully assessing the effects of these actions on other sectors. This paper describes a framework for indentifying the causes and impacts of salinity in delta regions based on the source-pathway-receptor framework. It uses examples and scenarios from the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta in Bangladesh together with field measurements and observations made in vulnerable coastal communities. The paper demonstrates the importance of creating an holistic understanding of the development and management of water resources to reduce the impact of salinity in fresh water in delta regions.

  4. The Regional Environmental Impacts of Atmospheric Aerosols over Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zakey, Ashraf; Ibrahim, Alaa

    2015-04-01

    Identifying the origin (natural versus anthropogenic) and the dynamics of aerosols over Egypt at varying temporal and spatial scales provide valuable knowledge on the regional climate impacts of aerosols and their ultimate connections to the Earth's regional climate system at the MENA region. At regional scale, Egypt is exposed to air pollution with levels exceeding typical air-quality standards. This is particularly true for the Nile Delta region, being at the crossroads of different aerosol species originating from local urban-industrial and biomass-burning activities, regional dust sources, and European pollution from the north. The Environmental Climate Model (EnvClimA) is used to investigate both of the biogenic and anthropogenic aerosols over Egypt. The dominant natural aerosols over Egypt are due to the sand and dust storms, which frequently occur during the transitional seasons (spring and autumn). In winter, the maximum frequency reaches 2 to 3 per day in the north, which decreases gradually southward with a frequency of 0.5-1 per day. Monitoring one of the most basic aerosol parameters, the aerosol optical depth (AOD), is a main experimental and modeling task in aerosol studies. We used the aerosol optical depth to quantify the amount and variability of aerosol loading in the atmospheric column over a certain areas. The aerosols optical depth from the model is higher in spring season due to the impacts of dust activity over Egypt as results of the westerly wind, which carries more dust particles from the Libyan Desert. The model result shows that the mass load of fine aerosols has a longer life-time than the coarse aerosols. In autumn season, the modelled aerosol optical depth tends to increase due to the biomass burning in the delta of Egypt. Natural aerosol from the model tends to scatter the solar radiation while most of the anthropogenic aerosols tend to absorb the longwave solar radiation. The overall results indicate that the AOD is lowest in winter

  5. Regional and Global Impacts of Megacity Air Pollution in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Renyi

    2014-05-01

    Air quality has deteriorated in many megacities of China because of their rapid economic developments. For example, as the world's second largest economy, China has experienced severe air pollution, with aerosols or fine particulate matter less than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) reaching unprecedented high levels across many cities in recent winters. In addition to the impacts of aerosols on air chemistry, visibility, and human health, intense aerosol pollution is believed to exert profound impacts on the regional and global atmosphere and climate. In the first part of the talk, perspectives are provided on formation and transformation of haze in China. In the second part the long-term impacts of aerosols on precipitation and lightning over a megacity area in China will be presented, on the basis of atmospheric observations and simulations using a cloud-resolving WRF model. Our results reveal that elevated aerosol loading suppresses light and moderate precipitation, but enhances heavy precipitation. Also, we demonstrate climatically modulated mid-latitude cyclones by Asian pollution over past three decades, using a novel hierarchical modeling approach and observational analysis. Our results unambiguously reveal a large impact of the Asian pollutant outflows on the global general circulation and climate.

  6. Forecasting energy security impacts of biofuels using regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, X.; Campbell, E.; Snyder, M. A.; Sloan, L.; Kueppers, L. M.

    2010-12-01

    Production of biofuels in the U.S. is growing rapidly, with corn providing the dominant feedstock for current production and corn stover potentially providing a critical feedstock source for future cellulosic ethanol production. While production of domestic biofuels is thought to improve energy security, future changes in climate may impact crop yield variability and erode the energy security benefits of biofuels. Here we examine future yield variability for corn and soy using RegCM regional climate data from NARCAPP, historical agronomic data, and statistical models of yield variability. Our simulations of historical yield anomalies using monthly temperature and precipitation data from RegCM show robust relationships to observed yield anomalies. Simulations of future yield anomalies show increased yield variability relative to historical yield variability in the region of high corn production. Since variability in energy supply is a critical concern for energy security we suggest that the climate-induced yield variability on critical biofuels feedstocks be explored more widely.

  7. Regional differences in perivascular adipose tissue impacting vascular homeostasis.

    PubMed

    Gil-Ortega, Marta; Somoza, Beatriz; Huang, Yu; Gollasch, Maik; Fernández-Alfonso, Maria S

    2015-07-01

    Perivascular adipose tissue (PVAT) releases several important vasoactive factors with physiological and pathophysiological paracrine effects. A large body of evidence suggests regional phenotypic and functional differences among PVAT depots, depending on the specific vascular bed or different regions in the vascular bed where the PVAT is located. These non-uniform and separate PVATs exert various paracrine effects on vascular structure and function that largely impact disease states, such as endothelial dysfunction, atherosclerosis, or insulin resistance. This emerging view of PVAT function requires considering heterogeneous PVAT as a specialized organ that can differentially regulate vascular function depending on its anatomical location. In this context, the adipose-vascular axis may represent a novel target for pharmacological intervention in vasculopathy in cardiometabolic disorders.

  8. Potential impact of U.S. biofuels on regional climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgescu, M.; Lobell, D. B.; Field, C. B.

    2009-11-01

    Recent work has shown that current bio-energy policy directives may have harmful, indirect consequences, affecting both food security and the global climate system. An additional unintended but direct effect of large-scale biofuel production is the impact on local and regional climate resulting from changes in the energy and moisture balance of the surface upon conversion to biofuel crops. Using the latest version of the WRF modeling system we conducted twenty-four, midsummer, continental-wide, sensitivity experiments by imposing realistic biophysical parameter limits appropriate for bio-energy crops in the Corn Belt of the United States. In the absence of strain/crop-specific parameterizations, a primary goal of this work was to isolate the maximum regional climate impact, for a trio of individual July months, due to land-use change resulting from bio-energy crops and to identify the relative importance of each biophysical parameter in terms of its individual effect. Maximum, local changes in 2 m temperature of the order of 1°C occur for the full breadth of albedo (ALB), minimum canopy resistance (RCMIN), and rooting depth (ROOT) specifications, while the regionally (105°W-75°W and 35°N-50°N) and monthly averaged response of 2 m temperature was most pronounced for the ALB and RCMIN experiments, exceeding 0.2°C. The full range of albedo variability associated with biofuel crops may be sufficient to drive regional changes in summertime rainfall. Individual parameter effects on 2 m temperature are additive, highlight the cooling contribution of higher leaf area index (LAI) and ROOT for perennial grasses (e.g., Miscanthus) versus annual crops (e.g., maize), and underscore the necessity of improving location- and vegetation-specific representation of RCMIN and ALB.

  9. The Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation Impact on Regional Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, Rolf; Valev, Dimitar; Atanassov, Atanas; Danov, Dimitar; Guineva, Veneta; Kirillov, Andrey S.

    2016-07-01

    The Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) shows a period of about 60-70 years. Over the time span from 1860 up to 2014 the AMO has had a strong climate impact on the Northern Hemisphere. The AMO is considered to be related to the Atlantic overturning circulation, but the origin of the oscillation is not fully understood up till now. To study the AMO impact on climate, the Hadcrut4, Crut4 and HadSST3 temperature data sets have been employed in the current study. The influence of the AMO on the zonal and meridional temperature distribution has been investigated in detail. The strongest zonal AMO impact was obtained in the Arctic region. The results indicated that the AMO influence on temperature at Southern latitudes was opposite in phase compared to the temperature influence in the Northern Hemisphere, in agreement with the well known heat transfer phenomenon from South to North Atlantic. In the Northern Hemisphere the strongest AMO temperature impact was found over the Atlantic and America. In the West from American continent, over the Pacific, the AMO impact was the lowest obtained over the whole Northern Hemisphere. The Rocky Mountains and Sierra Madre, connected with it southwards, built up an atmospheric circulation barrier preventing a strong propagation of the AMO temperature signal westerly. The amplitude of the AMO index itself was greater during summer-fall. However stronger AMO influence on the Northern Hemisphere temperatures was found during the fall-winter season, when the differences between the Northern Hemisphere temperatures and the temperatures in the tropics were the greatest.

  10. Global extreme events and their regional economic impact: 1996 update

    SciTech Connect

    Shen, S.

    1996-12-31

    The meaning of global warming and its relevance to everyday life is explained. Simple thermodynamics is used to predict an oscillatory nature of the change in climate due to global warming. The regional economic impacts of global extreme events are what mankind needs to focus on in government and private sector policy and planning. The economic impact of global warming has been tracked by the Extreme Event Index (EEI) established by the Global Warming International Center (GWIC). This review will update the overall trend and the components of the EEI from 1960 to 1996. The regional components of the global EEI have provided an excellent gauge for measuring the statistical vulnerability of any geographical locality in climate related economic disasters. The author further explains why we no longer fully understand the nature and magnitudes of common phenomena such as storms and wind speeds because of these extreme events, precipitation and temperature oscillations, atmospheric thermal unrest, as well as the further stratification of clouds, and changes in the absorptive properties of clouds. Hurricane strength winds are increasingly common even in continental areas. The author links the increase in duration of the El Nino to global warming, and further predicts a high public health risk as a result of the earth`s transition to another equilibrium state in its young history.

  11. Physical processes mediating climate change impacts on regional sea ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holt, J.; Schrum, C.; Cannaby, H.; Daewel, U.; Allen, I.; Artioli, Y.; Bopp, L.; Butenschon, M.; Fach, B. A.; Harle, J.; Pushpadas, D.; Salihoglu, B.; Wakelin, S.

    2014-02-01

    Regional seas are exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas' ecosystems. In this paper we explore these physical processes and their biophysical interactions, and the effects of atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial change on them. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within regional seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts: on long term changes in elemental budgets, on seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton's exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly on direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional models systems using ECOSMO, POLCOMS-ERSEM and BIMS_ECO. These cover the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and a region of the Northeast Atlantic, using a common global ocean-atmosphere model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and a more detailed analysis of the POLCOMS-ERSEM model. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from the varying mixing and circulation conditions. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas (Black and Baltic Seas) the

  12. Scenarios of bioenergy development impacts on regional groundwater withdrawals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Mitchell, Rob B.; Guan, Qingfeng; McCoy, Tim D.

    2013-01-01

    Irrigation increases agricultural productivity, but it also stresses water resources (Huffaker and Hamilton 2007). Drought and the potential for drier conditions resulting from climate change could strain water supplies in landscapes where human populations rely on finite groundwater resources for drinking, agriculture, energy, and industry (IPCC 2007). For instance, in the North American Great Plains, rowcrops are utilized for livestock feed, food, and bioenergy production (Cassman and Liska 2007), and a large portion is irrigated with groundwater from the High Plains aquifer system (McGuire 2011). Under projected future climatic conditions, greater crop water use requirements and diminished groundwater recharge rates could make rowcrop irrigation less feasible in some areas (Rosenberg et al. 1999; Sophocleous 2005). The Rainwater Basin region of south central Nebraska, United States, is an intensively farmed and irrigated Great Plains landscape dominated by corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max L.) production (Bishop and Vrtiska 2008). Ten starch-based ethanol plants currently service the region, producing ethanol from corn grain (figure 1). In this study, we explore the potential of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), a drought-tolerant alternative bioenergy feedstock, to impact regional annual groundwater withdrawals for irrigation under warmer and drier future conditions. Although our research context is specific to the Rainwater Basin and surrounding North American Great Plains, we believe the broader research question is internationally pertinent and hope that this study simulates similar research in other areas.

  13. ClimateImpactsOnline: A web platform for regional climate impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nocke, Thomas

    2013-04-01

    Climate change is widely known but there is often uncertainty about the specific effects. One of the key tasks is - beyond discussing climate change and its impacts in specialist groups - to present these to a wider audience. In that respect, decision-makers in the public sector as well as directly affected professional groups require to obtain easy-to-understand information. These groups are not made up of specialist scientists. This gives rise to two challenges: (1) the complex information must be presented such that it is commonly understood, and (2) access to the information must be easy. Interested parties do not have time to familiarize themselves over a lengthy period, but rather want to immediately work with the information. Beside providing climate information globally, regional information become of increasing interest for local decision making regarding awareness building and adaptation options. In addition, current web portals mainly focus on climate information, considering climate impacts on different sectors only implicitly. As solution, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and WetterOnline have jointly developed an Internet portal that is easy to use, groups together interesting information about climate impacts and offers it in a directly usable form. This new web portal ClimateImpactsOnline.com provides detailed information, combining multiple sectors for the test case of Germany. For this region, numerous individual studies on climate change have been prepared by various institutions. These studies differ in terms of their aim, region and time period of interest. Thus, the goal of ClimateImpactsOnline.com is to present a synthesized view on regional impacts of global climate change on hydrology, agriculture, forest, energy, tourism and health sector. The climate and impact variables are available on a decadal time resolution for the period from 1901-2100, combining observed data and future projections. Detailed information are presented

  14. A Multihazard Regional Level Impact Assessment for South Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amarnath, Giriraj; Alahacoon, Niranga; Aggarwal, Pramod; Smakhtin, Vladimir

    2016-04-01

    To prioritize climate adaptation strategies, there is a need for quantitative and systematic regional-level assessments which are comparable across multiple climatic hazard regimes. Assessing which countries in a region are most vulnerable to climate change requires analysis of multiple climatic hazards including: droughts, floods, extreme temperature as well as rainfall and sea-level rise. These five climatic hazards, along with population densities were modelled using GIS which enabled a summary of associated human exposure and agriculture losses. A combined index based on hazard, exposure and adaptive capacity is introduced to identify areas of extreme risks. The analysis results in population climate hazard exposure defined as the relative likelihood that a person in a given location was exposed to a given climate-hazard event in a given period of time. The study presents a detailed and coherent approach to fine-scale climate hazard mapping and identification of risks areas for the regions of South Asia that, for the first time, combines the following unique features: (a) methodological consistency across different climate-related hazards, (b) assessment of total exposure on population and agricultural losses, (c) regional-level spatial coverage, and (d) development of customized tools using ArcGIS toolbox that allow assessment of changes in exposure over time and easy replacement of existing datasets with a newly released or superior datasets. The resulting maps enable comparison of the most vulnerable regions in South Asia to climate-related hazards and is among the most urgent of policy needs. Subnational areas (regions/districts/provinces) most vulnerable to climate change impacts in South Asia are documented. The approach involves overlaying climate hazard maps, sensitivity maps, and adaptive capacity maps following the vulnerability assessment framework of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study used data on the

  15. Ionospheric storms on Mars: Impact of the corotating interaction region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dubinin, E.; Fraenz, M.; Woch, J.; Duru, F.; Gurnett, D.; Modolo, R.; Barabash, S.; Lundin, R.

    2009-01-01

    Measurements made by the ASPERA-3 and MARSIS experiments on Mars Express have shown, for the first time, that space weather effects related to the impact of a dense and high pressure solar wind (corotating interaction region) on Mars cause strong perturbations in the martian induced magnetosphere and ionosphere. The magnetic barrier formed by pile-up of the draped interplanetary magnetic field ceases to be a shield for the incoming solar wind. Large blobs of solar wind plasma penetrate to the magnetosphere and sweep out dense plasma from the ionosphere. The topside martian ionosphere becomes very fragmented consisting of intermittent cold/low energy and energized plasmas. The scavenging effect caused by the intrusions of solar wind plasma clouds enhances significantly (by a factor of >=10) the losses of volatile material from Mars.

  16. Regional United States electric field and GIC hazard impacts (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gannon, J. L.; Balch, C. C.; Trichtchenko, L.

    2013-12-01

    Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) are primarily driven by impulsive geomagnetic disturbances created by the interaction between the Earth's magnetosphere and sharp velocity, density, and magnetic field enhancements in the solar wind. However, the magnitude of the induced electric field response at the ground level, and therefore the resulting hazard to the bulk power system, is determined not only by magnetic drivers, but also by the underlying geology. Convolution techniques are used to calculate surface electric fields beginning from the spectral characteristics of magnetic field drivers and the frequency response of the local geology. Using these techniques, we describe historical scenarios for regions across the United States, and the potential impact of large events on electric power infrastructure.

  17. Impact of High Resolution SST Data on Regional Weather Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Case, Jonathon; LaFontaine, Frank; Vazquez, Jorge; Mattocks, Craig

    2010-01-01

    Past studies have shown that the use of coarse resolution SST products such as from the real-time global (RTG) SST analysis[1] or other coarse resolution once-a-day products do not properly portray the diurnal variability of fluxes of heat and moisture from the ocean that drive the formation of low level clouds and precipitation over the ocean. For example, the use of high resolution MODIS SST composite [2] to initialize the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) (ARW) [3] has been shown to improve the prediction of sensible weather parameters in coastal regions [4][5}. In an extend study, [6] compared the MODIS SST composite product to the RTG SST analysis and evaluated forecast differences for a 6 month period from March through August 2007 over the Florida coastal regions. In a comparison to buoy data, they found that that the MODIS SST composites reduced the bias and standard deviation over that of the RTG data. These improvements led to significant changes in the initial and forecasted heat fluxes and the resulting surface temperature fields, wind patterns, and cloud distributions. They also showed that the MODIS composite SST product, produced for the Terra and Aqua satellite overpass times, captured a component of the diurnal cycle in SSTs not represented in the RTG or other one-a-day SST analyses. Failure to properly incorporate these effects in the WRF initialization cycle led to temperature biases in the resulting short term forecasts. The forecast impact was limited in some situations however, due to composite product inaccuracies brought about by data latency during periods of long-term cloud cover. This paper focuses on the forecast impact of an enhanced MODIS/AMSR-E composite SST product designed to reduce inaccuracies due data latency in the MODIS only composite product.

  18. Impacts of climate change on infrastructure in permafrost regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beloloutskaia, M.; Anisimov, O.

    2003-04-01

    There is a growing evidence of enhanced warming over the permafrost regions, and significant impacts on natural and human systems are expected. Changes in the temperature, distribution, and depth of seasonal thawing of permafrost will have direct and immediate implications for the infrastructure built upon it. The mechanical strength of permafrost decreases with warming, resulting in damage to and possible failure of buildings, pipelines, and transportation facilities. Extensive infrastructure was developed in the Arctic largely in association with the extraction and transportation industries. Several large cities in Russia with few hundred thousand population are of particular concern since many buildings there have already been affected by the changes in permafrost properties. Detrimental changes in permafrost conditions are often not abrupt. Instead, they evolve gradually and can be predicted and monitored, allowing avoidance of catastrophic events and mitigation of negative consequences. Climate-induced threats to infrastructure in permafrost regions may be evaluated using a numerical "settlement" index, Iset, which allows to classify modern permafrost with respect to its potential for thermokarst development: Iset = dZ * W, where dZ is the relative change in the depth of seasonal thawing predicted by permafrost model for the conditions of the future climate and W is the volumetric proportion of near surface soil occupied by ground ice. Permafrost model of intermediate complexity (Koudriavtcev's model) was used with selected GCM-based scenarios of climate change to construct predictive maps of "settlement" index for the mid-21st century. Circumpolar permafrost area was partitioned into zones of high, moderate, and low hazard potential. Despite discrepancies in details, all scenarios yield a zone in the high-risk category distributed discontinuously around the margins of the Arctic Ocean, indicating high potential for coastal erosion. Several population centers

  19. Climatic Consequences and Agricultural Impact of Regional Nuclear Conflict

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robock, Alan; Mills, Michael; Toon, Owen Brian; Xia, Lili

    2013-04-01

    A nuclear war between India and Pakistan, with each country using 50 Hiroshima-sized atom bombs as airbursts on urban areas, would inject smoke from the resulting fires into the stratosphere. This could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and global-scale ozone depletion, with enhanced ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the surface. Simulations with the NCAR Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), run at higher vertical and horizontal resolution than a previous simulation with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE, and incorporating ozone chemistry for the first time, show a longer stratospheric residence time for smoke and hence a longer-lasting climate response, with global average surface air temperatures still 1.1 K below normal and global average precipitation 4% below normal after a decade. The erythemal dose from the enhanced UV radiation would greatly increase, in spite of enhanced absorption by the remaining smoke, with the UV index more than 3 units higher in the summer midlatitudes, even after a decade. Scenarios of changes in temperature, precipitation, and downward shortwave radiation from the ModelE and WACCM simulations, applied to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model for winter wheat, rice, soybeans, and maize by perturbing observed time series with anomalies from the regional nuclear war simulations, produce decreases of 10-50% in yield averaged over a decade, with larger decreases in the first several years, over several regions in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The impact of the nuclear war simulated here, using much less than 1% of the global nuclear arsenal, would be devastating to world agricultural production and trade, possibly sentencing a billion people now living marginal existences to starvation. The continued environmental threat of the use of even a small number of nuclear weapons must be considered in nuclear policy deliberations in Russia

  20. The Impact of Opioid Treatment on Regional Gastrointestinal Transit

    PubMed Central

    Poulsen, Jakob L; Nilsson, Matias; Brock, Christina; Sandberg, Thomas H; Krogh, Klaus; Drewes, Asbjørn M

    2016-01-01

    Background/Aims To employ an experimental model of opioid-induced bowel dysfunction in healthy human volunteers, and evaluate the impact of opioid treatment compared to placebo on gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms and motility assessed by questionnaires and regional GI transit times using the 3-dimensional (3D)-Transit system. Methods Twenty-five healthy males were randomly assigned to oxycodone or placebo for 5 days in a double blind, crossover design. Adverse GI effects were measured with the bowel function index, gastrointestinal symptom rating scale, patient assessment of constipation symptom questionnaire, and Bristol stool form scale. Regional GI transit times were determined using the 3D-Transit system, and segmental transit times in the colon were determined using a custom Matlab® graphical user interface. Results GI symptom scores increased significantly across all applied GI questionnaires during opioid treatment. Oxycodone increased median total GI transit time from 22.2 to 43.9 hours (P < 0.001), segmental transit times in the cecum and ascending colon from 5.7 to 9.9 hours (P = 0.012), rectosigmoid colon transit from 2.7 to 9.0 hours (P = 0.044), and colorectal transit time from 18.6 to 38.6 hours (P = 0.001). No associations between questionnaire scores and segmental transit times were detected. Conclusions Self-assessed GI adverse effects and increased GI transit times in different segments were induced during oxycodone treatment. This detailed information about segmental changes in motility has great potential for future interventional head-to-head trials of different laxative regimes for prevention and treatment of constipation. PMID:26811503

  1. Permafrost landscapes changes after anthropogenic impact in Norilsk region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ablyazina, D.; Grebenets, V.

    2009-04-01

    Temperature conditions of permafrost are changing in many ways connected with human impact, especially in industry developed regions like Norilsk. We had the series of field works along the gas pipeline "Messoyakha -Norilsk" and in the nearest nature landscapes. The research territory is located on the surface of Valyok lacustrine-alluvial plane (2nd fluvial terrace above flood-plane of the River Norilskaya) where the epigenetic permafrost was formed after the retreat of Late Pleistocene deep and cold lake during last 8-10 thousand years. This territory is also famous by their inter-ground massive ice sheet. Thermokarst processes activity near the pipeline higher in 30 per cent than in similar natural conditions and in general landscape is almost destroyed and the surface is polluted. In swampy hollows and near thermokarst lakes grass cover (shrub-cereal-grass-moss tundra) is changing to the sedge. The pipeline (550 mm in diameter) was built 35 years ago. High heat conductivity of gas pipe footing is resulting in the increasing of the active layer thickness and frost heave activation. Also, around almost all pipes were formed plump holes with deep from 0,2-0,3 up to 0,7-0,9 m, some of them were filled by water, this is caused thermokarst in the ice-rich ground, in it's turn this could provoke the same destructive processes in the near nature landscapes because all valley is covered system of inter-ground ice sheet.

  2. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Alaska Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGuire, D.

    2009-12-01

    The assessment of the Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States includes analyses of the potential climate change impacts in Alaska. The resulting findings are discussed in this presentation, with the effects on water resources discussed separately. Major findings include: Summers are getting hotter and drier, with increasing evaporation outpacing increased precipitation. Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. These impacts are different from region to region and will grow under projected climate change. Wildfires and insect problems are increasing. Climate plays a key role in determining the extent and severity of insect outbreaks and wildfire. The area burned in North America’s northern forest that spans Alaska and Canada tripled from the 1960s to the 1990s. During the 1990s, south-central Alaska experienced the largest outbreak of spruce bark beetles in the world because of warmer weather in all seasons of the year. Under changing climate conditions, the average area burned per year in Alaska is projected to double by the middle of this century10. By the end of this century, area burned by fire is projected to triple under a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario and to quadruple under a higher emissions scenario. Close-bodied lakes are declining in area. A continued decline in the area of surface water would present challenges for the management of natural resources and ecosystems on National Wildlife Refuges in Alaska. These refuges, which cover over 77 million acres (21 percent of Alaska) and comprise 81 percent of the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System, provide a breeding habitat for millions of waterfowl and shorebirds that winter in the lower 48 states. Permafrost thawing will damage public and private infrastructure. Land subsidence (sinking) associated with the thawing of permafrost presents substantial challenges to engineers attempting to preserve infrastructure in

  3. Probabilistic modeling of climate change impacts in permafrost regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anisimov, O.

    2009-04-01

    The new type of climate impact models has recently come into existence. Unlike conventional models, they take into account the probabilistic nature of climatic projections and small-scale spatial variability of permafrost parameters. In this study we describe the new stochastic permafrost modeling methodology and present the predictive results obtained for the Northern Eurasia under the ensemble climatic projection for the mid-21st century. Changes in permafrost are very illustrative of the impacts of global warming. It underlies about 22.8 million square km or 24% of the land area in the Northern Hemisphere and largely controls the state of the environment and socio-economical development in the northern lands. Observed and projected for the future warming is more pronounced in high latitudes, and there are indications that climatic change has already affected permafrost leading to deeper seasonal thawing and disappearance of the frozen ground in many locations. Particular concerns are associated with environmental and economical risks due to the damage of constructions, and with potential enhancement of the global warming through emission of greenhouse gases from thawing permafrost. Comprehensive permafrost projections are needed to predict such processes. We developed new type of stochastic model, which operates with the probability distribution functions of the parameters characterizing the state of permafrost. Air temperature, precipitation, snow depth, as well as vegetation and soil properties contribute to the variability of these parameters in space and over time, which is taken into account in the calculations of the statistical ensemble representing potential states of permafrost under the prescribed conditions. The model requires appropriate climatic and environmental data characterizing baseline or projected for the future conditions. Four gridded sets of climatic parameters constructed through spatial interpolation of meteorological observations and

  4. Regional Impacts of Climate Change in the Caribou Chilcotin Region, Fraser River Basin, BC, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bennett, K. E.; Werner, A. T.; Salathé, E. P.; Schnorbus, M.; Nelitz, M.; David, R. R.

    2009-05-01

    The terrain and climate of British Columbia (BC) is some of the most complex in the country, and is likely going to face unprecedented changes in hydrology due to the impacts of climate change. The Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) was formed in 2005 to produce tools to determine how water resources in BC and its surrounding provinces, territories and states are being affected by climate change. PCIC's first large-scale watershed modelling project implemented, in collaboration with the River Forecast Centre and the University of Washington, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model in several major BC watersheds. Future scenarios were developed to analyse the impacts of climate change on snowpack, streamflow and soil moisture in these basins. The current study focuses on the methods to develop future scenarios and the results of the hydrologic modelling. Six different GCM emissions scenarios were selected for BC from the AR4 scenarios. A modified bias correction and statistical downscaling (BCSD) technique created at the University of Washington was used to downscale GCM results to the scale of gridded historical forcings data to generate transient-daily time step, regional-scale projections of future climate change. These forcings were then used to drive the VIC macro-scale hydrologic model. A comparison of forcings for the historical period (1961-1990) from the downscaled GCM data to the forcings created from the observed records on the monthly-timescale demonstrated that the downscaled data captured the range of variability present in the 1961-1990 period in large and medium sized basins quite well. Accurately downscaling data for application in small basins was more difficult. Daily results created with the original BCSD technique were unrealistic in places and problematic for application in hydrologic models, such as VIC that depend on an accurate daily temperature range to model evaporation and snowpack. Results for the Fraser Basin study include

  5. Climatic Consequences and Agricultural Impact of Regional Nuclear Conflict

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toon, O. B.; Robock, A.; Mills, M. J.; Xia, L.

    2013-05-01

    A nuclear war between India and Pakistan, with each country using 50 Hiroshima-sized atom bombs as airbursts on urban areas, would inject smoke from the resulting fires into the stratosphere.This could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and global-scale ozone depletion, with enhanced ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the surface.Simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), run at higher vertical and horizontal resolution than a previous simulation with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE, and incorporating ozone chemistry for the first time, show a longer stratospheric residence time for smoke and hence a longer-lasting climate response, with global average surface air temperatures still 1.1 K below normal and global average precipitation 4% below normal after a decade.The erythemal dose from the enhanced UV radiation would greatly increase, in spite of enhanced absorption by the remaining smoke, with the UV index more than 3 units higher in the summer midlatitudes, even after a decade. Scenarios of changes in temperature, precipitation, and downward shortwave radiation from the ModelE and WACCM simulations, applied to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model for winter wheat, rice, soybeans, and maize by perturbing observed time series with anomalies from the regional nuclear war simulations, produce decreases of 10-50% in yield averaged over a decade, with larger decreases in the first several years, over the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The impact of the nuclear war simulated here, using much less than 1% of the global nuclear arsenal, would be devastating to world agricultural production and trade, possibly sentencing a billion people now living marginal existences to starvation.The continued environmental threat of the use of even a small number of nuclear weapons must be considered in nuclear policy deliberations in Russia, the U.S., and the rest of

  6. The Study of Impacts of Water Transferring From Wet Regions To Dry Regions In Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Motiee-Homayoun, Dr.; Ghomashchi, Dr.

    Iran, with a very diverse ecology and different climate has been classified as a dry- semidry region. Iran's annual average of rain-fall is about 250 mm, while this figure is more than 1000 mm in north and less than 100 mm in the south of the country. Overall, Iran's water resources are low. Rapid population growth, economic growth together with significant urban development, in recent decades, has led to underestimate high demands for water. Therefore, water shortage has been considered more obviously. Such an important scare is rather serious in central and eastern regions of the country. This problem has been determined as a serious challenge for Iran's government and national water authorities, in particular. Although, drinking water supply is only 6 percent of total water resources, due to direct socio-political impacts, drinking water supply, in both quality and quantity, is more serious and important than agricultural water demands. Accordingly, for the following reasons: 1) Desperation and diversity of geographical conditions of urban areas 2) Low access to underground water 3) Inadequate quality surface water supply Difficulties and the costs of supplying urban water in Iran have been sharply increased. Presently, due to unconstrained consuming underground water and negative balance in most under ground resources of the country, more specifically in central and eastern regions, water supply from groundwater resources is very risky and misleading. Furthermore, other reason such as rapid urban population growth and changes in people's every day life and their consumption patterns increase both water consumption and waste water in the circumstances of inadequate sewage systems, make a vast source of pollution for water resources. Due to the influence of extended See (Salty) water, in southern provinces, near to Persian Gulf, accessibility to fresh water is rather difficult and in many cases only after tens of kilometers far from the see, fresh water could be

  7. Estimation of greenhouse impacts of continuous regional emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Sinisalo, J.

    1998-03-27

    In this thesis, a method to calculate the greenhouse impact of continuous, time-dependent, non-global greenhouse gas emissions is used to estimate the impact of estimated anthropogenic pre-1990 and future (post 1990) emissions of CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O of Finland and Nordic countries. Estimates for the impact of Finnish CFCs and their substitutes and the significance of Finnnish forests as carbon sink are also calculated. The method is also used to compare several different wood and peat energy production schemes with fossil fuel use, in terms of caused greenhouse impact. The uncertainty of the results is examined.

  8. Economic Impact of Dengue: Multicenter Study across Four Brazilian Regions

    PubMed Central

    Martelli, Celina Maria Turchi; Siqueira, Joao Bosco; Parente, Mirian Perpetua Palha Dias; Zara, Ana Laura de Sene Amancio; Oliveira, Consuelo Silva; Braga, Cynthia; Pimenta, Fabiano Geraldo; Cortes, Fanny; Lopez, Juan Guillermo; Bahia, Luciana Ribeiro; Mendes, Marcia Costa Ooteman; da Rosa, Michelle Quarti Machado; de Siqueira Filha, Noemia Teixeira; Constenla, Dagna; de Souza, Wayner Vieira

    2015-01-01

    Background Dengue is an increasing public health concern in Brazil. There is a need for an updated evaluation of the economic impact of dengue within the country. We undertook this multicenter study to evaluate the economic burden of dengue in Brazil. Methods We estimated the economic burden of dengue in Brazil for the years 2009 to 2013 and for the epidemic season of August 2012- September 2013. We conducted a multicenter cohort study across four endemic regions: Midwest, Goiania; Southeast, Belo Horizonte and Rio de Janeiro; Northeast: Teresina and Recife; and the North, Belem. Ambulatory or hospitalized cases with suspected or laboratory-confirmed dengue treated in both the private and public sectors were recruited. Interviews were scheduled for the convalescent period to ascertain characteristics of the dengue episode, date of first symptoms/signs and recovery, use of medical services, work/school absence, household spending (out-of-pocket expense) and income lost using a questionnaire developed for a previous cost study. We also extracted data from the patients’ medical records for hospitalized cases. Overall costs per case and cumulative costs were calculated from the public payer and societal perspectives. National cost estimations took into account cases reported in the official notification system (SINAN) with adjustment for underreporting of cases. We applied a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations with 90% certainty levels (CL). Results We screened 2,223 cases, of which 2,035 (91.5%) symptomatic dengue cases were included in our study. The estimated cost for dengue for the epidemic season (2012–2013) in the societal perspective was US$ 468 million (90% CL: 349–590) or US$ 1,212 million (90% CL: 904–1,526) after adjusting for under-reporting. Considering the time series of dengue (2009–2013) the estimated cost of dengue varied from US$ 371 million (2009) to US$ 1,228 million (2013). Conclusions The economic burden

  9. CLIMATE IMPACTS ON NUTRIENT FLUXES IN STREAM FLOW IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    As part of a national assessment process, researchers of the Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA) are studying the impacts of climate variation and change on the natural and social systems of the Mid-Atlantic Region. This poster presents research investigating climate impacts ...

  10. The Impact of Electronic Communications on Town and Regional Planning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lefevre, Bruno

    1977-01-01

    Describes the impact of technological advancements in communications, telecommunications, electronic techniques, and audio-visual media, and projects an increasing role in the economics and social activities of future societies. (SL)

  11. Apollo 14 Impact Glasses and Clementine Data: Implications for Regional Geology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zellner, N. E. B.; Spudis, P. D.; Delano, J. W.; Whittet, D. C. B.

    2002-01-01

    Clementine color image data and analyses of 778 lunar impact glasses have been used together to suggest that the highlands of the Fra Mauro region consist of a KREEP-rich regolith overlying a feldspathic terrain. Low-KREEP impact glasses may possess a memory of impacts prior to 3.9 Ga ago. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  12. Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Gulf of Mexico Region (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect

    Flores, F.; Keyser, D.; Tegen, S.

    2014-01-01

    Offshore wind is a clean, renewable source of energy and can be an economic driver in the United States. To better understand the employment opportunities and other potential regional economic impacts from offshore wind development, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded research that focuses on four regions of the country. The studies use multiple scenarios with various local job and domestic manufacturing content assumptions. Each regional study uses the new offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This fact sheet summarizes the potential economic impacts for the Gulf of Mexico region.

  13. Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Great Lakes Region (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect

    Tegen, S.; Keyser, D.

    2014-01-01

    Offshore wind is a clean, renewable source of energy and can be an economic driver in the United States. To better understand the employment opportunities and other potential regional economic impacts from offshore wind development, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded research that focuses on four regions of the country. The studies use multiple scenarios with various local job and domestic manufacturing content assumptions. Each regional study uses the new offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model, developed by DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This fact sheet summarizes the potential economic impacts identified by the study for the Great Lakes region.

  14. Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Mid-Atlantic Region (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect

    Keyser, D.; Tegen, S.; Flores, F.; Zammit, D.; Kraemer, M.; Miles, J.

    2014-01-01

    Offshore wind is a clean, renewable source of energy and can be an economic driver in the United States. To better understand the employment opportunities and other potential regional economic impacts from offshore wind development, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded research that focuses on four regions of the country. The studies use multiple scenarios with various local job and domestic manufacturing content assumptions. Each regional study uses the new offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This fact sheet summarizes the potential economic impacts for the Mid-Atlantic region.

  15. Impact of Low-level Jet on Regional Ozone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, F.

    2011-12-01

    During spring and summer seasons, the frequent occurrences of nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ) over Great Plains region of the United States are widely recognized. As an important element of the low-level atmospheric circulation this LLJ effectively transports water vapor from the Gulf of Mexico, which in turn affects the development of server weather over the central United States. The LLJ has long been known to be conducive to summer rainfall and widespread flooding over the Great Plains of North America. The LLJ transports more than just moisture. Ozone episodes occur mainly during summer and are influenced by regional transport. Little is known, however,about the interrelation between the Great Plains LLJ and regional ozone transport. In this study, analysis of observational data during 1993-2006 has shown strong influence of the Great Plains LLJ on local and regional ozone distributions. Hourly ozone measurements from Air Quality System (AQS) are compared with wind fields at 850 hPa from the NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). It is demonstrated that the low ozone concentrations over Texas in late spring and summer are identified with large LLJ transport of clean marine air mass from the Gulf of Mexico. Significant negative correlations exist between daily ozone concentration and LLJ index (Figure 1), suggesting that lower ozone over Texas is associated with stronger LLJ. On the other hand, positive correlations occur in the Midwest and Northeast, indicating the important role of regional transport of ozone and precursors along the pathway by the wind circulation accompanying the LLJ. In addition, the LLJ is significantly correlated with northerly flows in the eastern Pacific Ocean and the adjacent coast. This relationship explains the coexistence of low ozone concentrations in Texas and southwestern U.S during summer, both attributed to the inland transport of clean marine air. These observed ozone-LLJ patterns are well simulated by the regional CMM5

  16. Impact of AIRS Thermodynamic Profile on Regional Weather Forecast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Brad; Jedlovee, Gary

    2010-01-01

    Prudent assimilation of AIRS thermodynamic profiles and quality indicators can improve initial conditions for regional weather models. AIRS-enhanced analysis has warmer and moister PBL. Forecasts with AIRS profiles are generally closer to NAM analyses than CNTL. Assimilation of AIRS leads to an overall QPF improvement in 6-h accumulated precipitation forecasts. Including AIRS profiles in assimilation process enhances the moist instability and produces stronger updrafts and a better precipitation forecast than the CNTL run.

  17. KT boundary impact glasses from the Gulf of Mexico region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Claeys, Philippe; Alvarez, Walter; Smit, Jan; Hildebrand, A. R.; Montanari, Alessandro

    1993-01-01

    Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary (KTB) tektite glasses occur at several sites around the Gulf of Mexico. Contrary to rumor among KTB workers, glass fragments have been found by several researchers in the base of the spherule bed at Arroyo el Mimbral in NE Mexico. The presence of green, red, and transparent glass fragments at Mimbral only, demonstrates that the Mimbral glass is not a laboratory contamination by Beloc glass. The chemistry and ages of the glass are consistent with an origin from the Chixculub impact crater in Yucatan. No evidence supports a volcanic origin for the KTB glasses. A discussion of tektite glass from the KT boundary is presented.

  18. Impact of regional climate change on human health

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patz, Jonathan A.; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A.

    2005-11-01

    The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.

  19. Impact of Black Carbon Aerosols on Regional Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menon, S.; Hansen, J.; Nazarenko, L.; Luo, Y.

    2002-12-01

    We have evaluated the effect of anthropogenic aerosols on the regional climates of China and India: regions where aerosol emissions have been increasing at an alarming rate. We use the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model to perform simulations that investigate recent trends in summer precipitation observed over China - North drought, South flooding - considered to be the largest observed in several decades. We perform several simulations to differentiate between the climate effects of sulfate and black carbon aerosols and use realistic aerosol distributions obtained from measurements over China, India and the Indian Ocean. The trends in precipitation as well as the summer time surface cooling over China and India have been captured by using aerosols that have a low single scatter albedo (0.85), i.e., by assuming that the aerosols are mostly absorbing. Since black carbon aerosols are absorbing aerosols and cause surface cooling with heating at the top of the atmosphere and in the lower troposphere, the change in the vertical temperature profile causes changes in the large-scale vertical velocity fields, latent heating, convective activity and cloud cover. This change in the large-scale circulation may explain some of the changes in the precipitation and temperature trends observed over China and India in recent decades. Our results suggest that black carbon aerosols can have a significant influence on regional climate through changes in the hydrological cycle and large-scale circulation.

  20. Impact of regional climate change on human health.

    PubMed

    Patz, Jonathan A; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A

    2005-11-17

    The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.

  1. Local and regional smoke impacts from prescribed fires

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Price, Owen F.; Horsey, Bronwyn; Jiang, Ningbo

    2016-10-01

    Smoke from wildfires poses a significant threat to affected communities. Prescribed burning is conducted to reduce the extent and potential damage of wildfires, but produces its own smoke threat. Planners of prescribed fires model the likely dispersion of smoke to help manage the impacts on local communities. Significant uncertainty remains about the actual smoke impact from prescribed fires, especially near the fire, and the accuracy of smoke dispersal models. To address this uncertainty, a detailed study of smoke dispersal was conducted for one small (52 ha) and one large (700 ha) prescribed fire near Appin in New South Wales, Australia, through the use of stationary and handheld pollution monitors, visual observations and rain radar data, and by comparing observations to predictions from an atmospheric dispersion model. The 52 ha fire produced a smoke plume about 800 m high and 9 km long. Particle concentrations (PM2.5) reached very high peak values (> 400 µg m-3) and high 24 h average values (> 100 µg m-3) at several locations next to or within ˜ 500 m downwind from the fire, but low levels elsewhere. The 700 ha fire produced a much larger plume, peaking at ˜ 2000 m altitude and affecting downwind areas up to 14 km away. Both peak and 24 h average PM2.5 values near the fire were lower than for the 52 ha fire, but this may be because the monitoring locations were further away from the fire. Some lofted smoke spread north against the ground-level wind direction. Smoke from this fire collapsed to the ground during the night at different times in different locations. Although it is hard to attribute particle concentrations definitively to smoke, it seems that the collapsed plume affected a huge area including the towns of Wollongong, Bargo, Oakdale, Camden and Campbelltown (˜ 1200 km2). PM2.5 concentrations up to 169 µg m-3 were recorded on the morning following the fire. The atmospheric dispersion model

  2. Economic Impact of the Metropolitan Community Colleges on the Kansas City Region. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Manning, Sherry

    This study assesses the economic impact of the Metropolitan Community Colleges (MCC) on the four-county region of metropolitan Kansas City, Missouri. The total economic impact is composed of a network of interactive cash flows between the colleges, business, government, and individuals, and may be derived by adding three distinct components:…

  3. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact: Four Regional Scenarios (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Tegen, S.

    2014-11-01

    NREL's Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model for Offshore Wind, is a computer tool for studying the economic impacts of fixed-bottom offshore wind projects in the United States. This presentation provides the results of an analysis of four offshore wind development scenarios in the Southeast Atlantic, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico regions.

  4. Impacts of Regional Electricity Prices and Building Type on the Economics of Commercial Photovoltaic Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Ong, S.; Campbell, C.; Clark, N.

    2012-12-01

    To identify the impacts of regional electricity prices and building type on the economics of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, 207 rate structures across 77 locations and 16 commercial building types were evaluated. Results for expected solar value are reported for each location and building type. Aggregated results are also reported, showing general trends across various impact categories.

  5. OVERVIEW OF THE CLIMATE IMPACT ON REGIONAL AIR QUALITY (CIRAQ) PROJECT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Climate Impacts on Regional Air Quality (CIRAQ) project will develop model-estimated impacts of global climate changes on ozone and particulate matter (PM) in direct support of the USEPA Global Change Research Program's (GCRP) national air quality assessment. EPA's urban/reg...

  6. Impact of shale gas development on regional water quality.

    PubMed

    Vidic, R D; Brantley, S L; Vandenbossche, J M; Yoxtheimer, D; Abad, J D

    2013-05-17

    Unconventional natural gas resources offer an opportunity to access a relatively clean fossil fuel that could potentially lead to energy independence for some countries. Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing make the extraction of tightly bound natural gas from shale formations economically feasible. These technologies are not free from environmental risks, however, especially those related to regional water quality, such as gas migration, contaminant transport through induced and natural fractures, wastewater discharge, and accidental spills. We review the current understanding of environmental issues associated with unconventional gas extraction. Improved understanding of the fate and transport of contaminants of concern and increased long-term monitoring and data dissemination will help manage these water-quality risks today and in the future.

  7. Environmental and human impacts on Bangalore's regional water scarcity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Penny, G.; Srinivasan, V.; Thompson, S. E.

    2014-12-01

    The Arkavathy River Basin adjacent to Bangalore, India, faces a multitude of challenges driven by water demands from urbanization and intensification of agriculture. In the Arkavathy Basin, the two major reservoirs that historically supplied water to Bangalore now receive little to no inflow. Recent research has resulted in multiple plausible hypotheses attributing streamflow reductions in the Arkavathy to (1) increased evapotranspiration due to a boom in eucalyptus plantations and irrigated agriculture, and (2) increased deep drainage from surface soils due to long-term, excessive groundwater extraction. Current knowledge of Bangalore's water scarcity is largely based on anecdotal evidence and the sparse environmental data for this region is insufficient to definitively test these hypotheses. To bridge the gap between provincial and academic knowledge and better understand the nature of regional water resource depletion, we utilize a range of methods to integrate information across spatial and temporal scales. We use the full history of Landsat satellite imagery to approximate post-monsoon water storage in tanks and construct a spatially-explicit, historical record of surface water. We combine stable isotope mixing models, traditional field methods, and kite photography to build a deeper understanding of rainfall-runoff processes. Remote-sensing results confirm reductions of surface water in many of the tanks in the upper reaches of the watershed. We also observe an increase in surface water availability downstream of Bangalore, where imported water results in large waste flows. Field methods reveal considerable contributions of Hortonian overland flow due to soils with low hydraulic conductivity, mitigating changes in the subsurface water balance. We conclude that surface water availability is strongly related to spatial patterns of urban and agricultural water demand overlaid on a template defined by topography, soil, and climate.

  8. Impact of commuter-rail services in Toronto region

    SciTech Connect

    Wells, S.S.; Hutchinson, B.G.

    1996-07-01

    Ridership of the commuter-rail system that was implemented in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in 1967 increased at an annual, average compound rate of 11.4% until 1989. Demand has leveled substantially during 1990--94 and has averaged only 2.1% per year, which probably reflects the suburbanization of employment. Urban economic theory is used to explain the way in which central-business-district (CBD) employees respond differently to suburban commuter-rail services and rapid transit services, mainly serving the inner intermediate suburbs. Travel data collected in 1986 and 1991 confirmed the effects suggested by the theory. Commuter-rail passengers are drawn from the larger suburban households, living principally in single-family houses, and commuter-rail passengers are more sensitive to access and egress distances than subway passengers. Policies that improve the quality of access and egress components of commuting trips from the suburbs stimulate passenger demand. Also, land-use policies that promote high-density, residential development at suburban commuter-rail stations are unlikely to contribute significantly to commuter-rail demand, and the lakeshore commuter-rail line that has been in service since 1967 has not had a significant impact on residential sorting and on the generation of additional demands.

  9. THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper assesses the potential impacts of climate change on the mid-Atlantic coastal (MAC) region of the United States. In order of increasing uncertainty, it is projected that sea level, temperature and streamflow will increase in the MAC region in response to higher levels o...

  10. The Impact of Regional Higher Education Spaces on the Security of International Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Forbes-Mewett, Helen

    2016-01-01

    The security of international students in regional higher education spaces in Australia has been overlooked. Contingency theory provides the framework for this case study to explore the organisational structure and support services relevant to a regional higher education space and how this impacts the security of international students. In-depth…

  11. Making an Economic Impact: Higher Education and the English Regions. Research Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelly, Ursula; McLellan, Donald; McNicoll, Iain

    2010-01-01

    This is the first published study of the impact of the higher education sector on the English regions. This study presents key economic features of UK higher education in the academic year 2007/08 and those aspects of its contribution to the nine English regions that can be readily measured. The sector is analysed as a conventional industry,…

  12. Blastopathies and microcephaly in a Chornobyl impacted region of Ukraine

    PubMed Central

    Wertelecki, Wladimir; Yevtushok, Lyubov; Zymak-Zakutnia, Natalia; Wang, Bin; Sosyniuk, Zoriana; Lapchenko, Serhiy; Hobart, Holly H

    2014-01-01

    This population-based descriptive epidemiology study demonstrates that rates of conjoined twins, teratomas, neural tube defects, microcephaly, and microphthalmia in the Rivne province of Ukraine are among the highest in Europe. The province is 200 km distant from the Chornobyl site and its northern half, a region known as Polissia, is significantly polluted by ionizing radiation. The rates of neural tube defects, microcephaly and microphthalmia in Polissia are statistically significantly higher than in the rest of the province. A survey of at-birth head size showed that values were statistically smaller in males and females born in one Polissia county than among neonates born in the capital city. These observations provide clues for confirmatory and cause-effect prospective investigations. The strength of this study stems from a reliance on international standards prevalent in Europe and a decade-long population-based surveillance of congenital malformations in two distinct large populations. The limitations of this study, as those of other descriptive epidemiology investigations, is that identified cause-effect associations require further assessment by specific prospective investigations designed to address specific teratogenic factors. PMID:24666273

  13. Estimating the economic and demographic impacts of solar technology commercialization on US regions

    SciTech Connect

    Kort, J.R.

    1980-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a framework through which these regional economic and demographic impacts of solar technology commercialization can be analyzed. Two models comprise the basis of this framework - a national input/output model and an interregional econometric model, the National-Regional Impact Evaluation System (NRIES). These models are used to convert projected sales of solar energy systems to gross output concepts, and to evaluate the impacts associated with these sales. Analysis is provided for the nine census regions and 50 states and the District of Columbia for the years 1980 through 1990. Impacts on major economic aggregates such as output, employment, income, and population are described. The methodology used in this study is described. The economic and demographic impacts of solar technology commercialization on US regions and states are presented. The major conclusions of the study are summarized, and direction is provided for further research. Detailed tables of regional and state solar energy expenditures and their impacts appear in the Appendix.

  14. Impacts of seasonal and regional variability in biogenic VOC emissions on surface ozone in the Pearl River Delta region, China

    SciTech Connect

    Situ, S.; Guenther, Alex B.; Wang, X. J.; Jiang, X.; Turnipseed, A.; Wu, Z.; Bai, J.; Wang, X.

    2013-12-05

    In this study, the BVOC emissions in November 2010 over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in southern China have been estimated by the latest version of a Biogenic Volatile Organic Compound (BVOC) emission model (MEGAN v2.1). The evaluation of MEGAN performance at a representative forest site within this region indicates MEGAN can estimate BVOC emissions reasonably well in this region except overestimating isoprene emission in autumn for reasons that are discussed in this manuscript. Along with the output from MEGAN, the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used to estimate the impacts of BVOC emissions on surface ozone in the PRD region. The results show BVOC emissions increase the daytime ozone peak by *3 ppb on average, and the max hourly impacts of BVOC emissions on the daytime ozone peak is 24.8 ppb. Surface ozone mixing ratios in the central area of Guangzhou- Foshan and the western Jiangmen are most sensitive to BVOC emissions BVOCs from outside and central PRD influence the central area of Guangzhou-Foshan and the western Jiangmen significantly while BVOCs from rural PRD mainly influence the western Jiangmen. The impacts of BVOC emissions on surface ozone differ in different PRD cities, and the impact varies in different seasons. Foshan and Jiangmen being most affected in autumn, result in 6.0 ppb and 5.5 ppb increases in surface ozone concentrations, while Guangzhou and Huizhou become more affected in summer. Three additional experiments concerning the sensitivity of surface ozone to MEGAN input variables show that surface ozone is more sensitive to landcover change, followed by emission factors and meteorology.

  15. Evaluation of the Impact of AIRS Radiance and Profile Data Assimilation in Partly Cloudy Regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zavodsky, Bradley; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Jedlovec, Gary

    2013-01-01

    Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Retrieved profiles from AIRS contain much of the information that is contained in the radiances and may be able to reveal reasons for this reduced impact. Assimilating AIRS retrieved profiles in an identical analysis configuration to the radiances, tracking the quantity and quality of the assimilated data in each technique, and examining analysis increments and forecast impact from each data type can yield clues as to the reasons for the reduced impact. By doing this with regional scale models individual synoptic features (and the impact of AIRS on these features) can be more easily tracked. This project examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing operational techniques used for AIRS radiances and research techniques used for AIRS retrieved profiles. Parallel versions of a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) are run to examine the impact AIRS radiances and retrieved profiles. Statistical evaluation of a long-term series of forecast runs will be compared along with preliminary results of in-depth investigations for select case comparing the analysis increments in partly cloudy regions and short-term forecast impacts.

  16. Atmospheric Impact of Large Methane Emission in the Arctic Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattacharyya, S.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Bergmann, D.; Reagan, M. T.; Collins, W.; Elliott, S. M.; Maltrud, M. E.

    2011-12-01

    A highly potent greenhouse gas, methane, is locked in the solid phase as ice-like deposits containing a mixture of water and gas (mostly methane) called clathrates, in ocean sediments and underneath permafrost regions. Clathrates are stable under high pressure and low temperatures. Recent estimates suggest that about 1600 - 2000GtC of clathrates are present in oceans and 400GtC in Arctic permafrost (Archer et al.2009) which is about 4000 times that of current annual emissions. In a warming climate, increase in ocean temperatures could alter the geothermal gradient, which in turn could lead to dissociation of the clathrates and release of methane into the ocean and subsequently into the atmosphere as well. This could be of particular importance in the shallow part of the Arctic Ocean where the clathrates are found in depths of only 300m. In this presentation, we shall show results from our ongoing simulation of a scenario of large scale methane outgassing from clathrate dissociation due to warming ocean temperatures in the Arctic based on ocean sediment modeling. To that end we use the CESM (Community Earth System Model) version 1 with fully active coupled atmosphere-ocean-land model together with fast atmospheric chemistry module to simulate the response to increasing methane emissions in the Barents Sea, Canadian Archipelago and the Sea of Okhotsk. The simulation shows the effect these methane emissions could have on global surface methane, surface ozone, surface air temperature and other related indices. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS-491764

  17. Analysis of the economic impacts from ethanol production in three New York State regions. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Batista, J.C.; Boisvert, R.N.; Kalter, R.J.

    1982-11-01

    This report describes the potential local economic impact of ethanol production industries for three multi-county regions of New York State. The study's input-output analysis suggests that investment in a small cheese whey-ethanol plant would generate far more local employment, per gallon of annual capacity, than a large corn-based plant which would rely more heavily on feedstocks from the outside region. In addition, a cheese whey ethanol plant's impact on dairies in the region would have a greater effect on the local economy than the ethanol plant itself.

  18. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Tegen, S.; Keyser, D.; Flores-Espino, F.; Miles, J.; Zammit, D.; Loomis, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Researchers worked with developers and industry representatives in each region to create potential offshore wind deployment and supply chain growth scenarios, specific to their locations. These scenarios were used as inputs into the offshore JEDI model to estimate jobs and other gross economic impacts in each region.

  19. The "APEC Blue" Phenomenon: Impacts of Regional emission control Meteorology Condition and Regional Transport from a Modeling Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, M.; Carmichael, G. R.; Liu, Z.; Ji, D.; Saide, P. E.; Wang, Y.; Xin, J.

    2015-12-01

    On November 5-11, China hosted the 2014 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders' Week in Beijing. To ensure good air quality during the APEC week, a series of strict emission control measures were taken in Beijing and surrounding provinces, which provide us with a great opportunity to examine the effectiveness of regional emission control. As important as emissions, meteorology can also significantly affect air quality in Beijing, so it's meaningful to understand the impact of meteorology conditions in the APEC week. Besides, it's important to study the impact of regional transport as its contribution to Beijing pollution levels is controversial. In this study, we investigate the impacts of emission control, meteorology and regional transport on the air quality during APEC week using a fully online coupled meteorology-chemistry model WRF-Chem. Compared to surface observations, the model has very good performance. The conclusions from this study will provide useful insights for government to control aerosol pollution in Beijing.

  20. Modeling the Impacts of Global Climate and Regional Land Use Change on Regional Climate, Air Quality and Public Health in the New York Metropolitan Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenthal, J. E.; Knowlton, K. M.; Kinney, P. L.

    2002-12-01

    There is an imminent need to downscale the global climate models used by international consortiums like the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to predict the future regional impacts of climate change. To meet this need, a "place-based" climate model that makes specific regional projections about future environmental conditions local inhabitants could face is being created by the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, in collaboration with other researchers and universities, for New York City and the 31 surrounding counties. This presentation describes the design and initial results of this modeling study, aimed at simulating the effects of global climate change and regional land use change on climate and air quality over the northeastern United States in order to project the associated public health impacts in the region. Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone and fine particles are significant current public health stressors in the New York metropolitan area. The New York Climate and Health Project is linking human dimension and natural sciences models to assess the potential for future public health impacts from heat stress and air quality, and yield improved tools for assessing climate change impacts. The model will be applied to the NY metropolitan east coast region. The following questions will be addressed: 1. What changes in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events are likely to occur over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and land cover (LU/LC) and climate change in the region? 2. How might the frequency and severity of episodic concentrations of ozone (O3) and airborne particulate matter smaller than 2.5 æm in diameter (PM2.5) change over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and climate change in the metropolitan region? 3. What is the range of possible human health impacts of these changes in the region? 4. How might projected future human

  1. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Overview of Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walsh, J.

    2009-12-01

    Regional impacts outside of Alaska have several recurring themes. Prominent among these are water availability, which will be increasingly threatened by drying over much of the United States, particularly the West and South. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will further impact water supplies, and will have effects on outdoor recreation during winter. Increasingly severe summer heat waves will stress humans and ecosystems over much of the United States, while the combination of warming and drying will increase the threat of wildfires. Coastal regions will be increasingly at risk from erosion, storm surges and coastal flooding associated with rising sea level. Ocean acidification is likely to impact coastal regions around the United States through its effects on marine ecosystems. Finally, climates suitable for agricultural crops and forest types will likely undergo regional shifts, generally northward, in many cases by hundreds of miles.

  2. Current and potential ant impacts in the Pacific region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Loope, Lloyd L.; Krushelnycky, Paul D.

    2007-01-01

    . They generally have multiple queens per colony, are unicolonial (lacking internest aggression), quickly recruit to food items, thrive in a variety of habitats including disturbed areas, and can be highly aggressive to other ant species (McGlynn 1999). Hawaii’s arthropod fauna evolved in the absence of ants and has been observed by many biologists to be highly vulnerable to displacement by non-native ants. Pacific island biotas have also very likely suffered greatly from displacement by ants. However, in contrast to Hawaii, virtually nothing has been published on effects of non-native ants on native arthropod fauna elsewhere on Pacific islands, with the exception of the Galapagos archipelago, which may have at least four species of endemic ants (Lubin 1984, Nishida and Evenhuis 2000) and New Caledonia (Jourdan et al. 2001, Le Breton et al. 2005). In addition, many ant species in the Pacific have long been a nuisance for humans, and significant agricultural impacts have occurred from ants tending hemipteran insects of crop plants.

  3. The ionospheric impact on GPS performance in southern polar region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hong, C.-K.; Grejner-Brzezinska, D. A.; Arslan, N.; Willis, M.; Hothem, L.

    2006-01-01

    The primary objective of this paper is to present the results of the study of the effects of varying ionospheric conditions on the GPS signal tracking in the southern polar region. In the first stage of this study, the data collected by the OSU/USGS team in October-November 2003 within the TAMDEF (Transantarctic Mountains Deformation) network were used together with some IGS Antarctic stations to study the effect of severe ionospheric storms on GPS hardware. Note that TAMDEF is a joint USGS/OSU project with the primary objective of measuring crustal motion in the Transantarctic Mountains of Southern Victoria Land using GPS techniques. This study included ten Antarctic stations equipped with different dual-frequency GPS hardware, and the data were evaluated for two 24-hour periods of severe ionospheric storm (2003/10/29) and moderate ionospheric conditions (minor storm of 2003/11/11). The results of this study were presented at the LAG Assembly in Cairns, Australia (Grejner-Brzezinska et al., 2005). Additional tests, in a more controlled environment, were carried out at the US Antarctic station, McMurdo, between January 10 and February 6, 2006, under varying ionospheric conditions, where several different types of receivers were connected to the same antenna located on the rooftop of the Crary Laboratory (the primary test site). In this scenario, each antenna was subject to identical ionospheric effects during each day of the test, and no spatial decorrelation effects were present, as seen in the previous study, due to the spatial separation of the receivers tested. It should be noted, however, that no moderate or severe ionospheric storms occurred during the experiment, so, unfortunately, this type of conditions was not tested here. The test was repeated with different receivers connected to different antenna types; a total of four 5-day sessions were carried out. The following receiver types were used at the primary site: Trimble 5700, Ashtech Z-Surveyor, JNS Euro

  4. Development and application of methods for regional scaling and normalization in life-cycle impact assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Tolle, D.A.

    1995-12-31

    Life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is a technical, quantitative and/or qualitative method to classify, characterize, and valuate potential impacts on human health, ecosystems, and natural resources, based on the environmental burdens identified in a life-cycle inventory. Research described here for two LCIAs included development and application of regional scaling methods for the following 5 of 14 relevant impact categories: Suspended (PM{sub 10}) particulate effects, water use, acid deposition, smog creation, and eutrophication. Normalization is recommended after characterization, because aggregated sums per impact category need to be expressed in equivalent terms before assigning valuation weight factors. The normalization approach described here involves determination of factors that represent the total, geographically-relevant impact for a given impact category. The goal for the 14 normalization factors developed and applied to two LCIAS, was to make them scientifically defensible, while utilizing existing data on emission or resource extraction quantities for three spatial perspectives. Data on the total environmental burden for each inventory item under a given impact category were obtained for normalization factors. Since the boundaries of the two LCIAs were primarily in the US, the data for the regional or local impact category perspectives were restricted to appropriate areas in the US. Normalization factors were developed and applied in the two LCIAs for 11 impact categories involving chemical emissions, water use, solid waste volume, and resource extraction/production land use.

  5. Tracing impacts of local and regional emission sources on the aerosols over Central Himalayan region during GVAX

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sahai, Shivraj; Sagar, Ram; Pant, P.; Krishna Moorthy, K.; Venkata Phanikumar, Devulapalli; Dumka, Umesh Chandra; Pant, Vimlesh; Singh, Narendra; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Naja, Manish; Satheesh, S. K.

    2012-07-01

    Observational site ARIES, Nainital (29.4°N, 79.5°E; 1950 m a.m.s.l) is ideally located to study the tropospheric background (TB) of various atmospheric components and their characteristics representing northern India. Observations at this site could provide useful information of the aerosol properties before, after and during the south-west monsoon. Higher levels of trace gases and aerosols surround this region during winter/spring period in space-borne observations. This period also coincides with the intensive crop residue burning season in the region. In view of this, extensive observation of aerosols, radiation and meteorological parameters are made at the site under the Regional Aerosol Warming Experiment-Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment (RAWEX-GVAX) from June 2011. This experiment thus pose an unique opportunity to study the impact of local and regional pollution and study the influence of long-range transport to the pristine region of Central Himalayas. Results from collocated in-situ measurement of aerosol physical properties [absorption coefficient (σ ab), scattering coefficients (σ s), back scatter ratio (Bfr), aerosol number concentration (Ncn), Cloud condensation nuclei count (Nccn), single scattering albedo (ω ), angstrom exponent (α ), hygroscopic growth factor, f(RH)] with state of the art measurement techniques are presented here. Preliminary analyses of the measurements show that the site is mostly dominated by small size fraction of aerosol (mainly accumulation mode), whose number concentration varies from below 500 cm-3 to above 6000 cm-3 during the study period (upto November 2011). The 'ω ', 'α ' and hygroscopic property of the aerosol observed in GVAX indicate a lesser possibility of impact from fossil fuel combustion as compared to that from biomass/firewood burning. Though daily variations show dominance of local impact, possibility of long-range transport however, cannot be ruled out. Anticipating possibility of both local and long

  6. Climate change impacts utilizing regional models for agriculture, hydrology and natural ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kafatos, M.; Asrar, G. R.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Medvigy, D.; Prasad, A. K.; Smith, E.; Stack, D. H.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts the entire Earth but with crucial and often catastrophic impacts at local and regional levels. Extreme phenomena such as fires, dust storms, droughts and other natural hazards present immediate risks and challenges. Such phenomena will become more extreme as climate change and anthropogenic activities accelerate in the future. We describe a major project funded by NIFA (Grant # 2011-67004-30224), under the joint NSF-DOE-USDA Earth System Models (EaSM) program, to investigate the impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural and natural (i.e. rangeland) ecosystems in the Southwest USA using a combination of historical and present observations together with climate, and ecosystem models, both in hind-cast and forecast modes. The applicability of the methodology to other regions is relevant (for similar geographic regions as well as other parts of the world with different agriculture and ecosystems) and should advance the state of knowledge for regional impacts of climate change. A combination of multi-model global climate projections from the decadal predictability simulations, to downscale dynamically these projections using three regional climate models, combined with remote sensing MODIS and other data, in order to obtain high-resolution climate data that can be used with hydrological and ecosystem models for impacts analysis, is described in this presentation. Such analysis is needed to assess the future risks and potential impacts of projected changes on these natural and managed ecosystems. The results from our analysis can be used by scientists to assist extended communities to determine agricultural coping strategies, and is, therefore, of interest to wide communities of stakeholders. In future work we will be including surface hydrologic modeling and water resources, extend modeling to higher resolutions and include significantly more crops and geographical regions with different weather and climate conditions

  7. Impact of boundary regions on the interior circulation of the California Current System in a regional modeling framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veneziani, M.; Edwards, C.; Moore, A.

    2008-12-01

    We use the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to model the circulation of the California Current System (CCS) using ECCO-GODAE products to force the model at the open boundaries of the domain. We investigate the impact that lateral boundary forcing (and the boundary region in general) has on particular metrics of the interior circulation by adopting both an adjoint model and a traditional sensitivity approach. Adjoint methods are naturally suited to sensitivity studies as they provide the direct dependencies of circulation metrics on uncertainties of the model initial conditions, surface and lateral external forcing, and model parameters, but their results are only valid within the time scale during which the linearity assumption underlying adjoint models can be considered to hold. More traditional sensitivity studies must be conducted to investigate longer time scales. We describe the adjoint model results for two metrics that represent the upwelling processes of the Central California region and the mean sea level field of the coastal circulation, respectively. The spatial distribution of the adjoint sensitivity fields allows us to quantify the contribution of the boundary regions over a biweekly time scale. We investigate longer time scales by adopting two methods: 1) apply different ECCO products at the open boundaries and evaluate mean stratification changes in the CalCOFI coastal region; 2) release passive tracers at the boundaries and calculate ventilation time scales and pathways from the boundary areas to the CCS interior.

  8. Assessing climate impacts of planning policies-An estimation for the urban region of Leipzig (Germany)

    SciTech Connect

    Schwarz, Nina Bauer, Annette Haase, Dagmar

    2011-03-15

    Local climate regulation by urban green areas is an important urban ecosystem service, as it reduces the extent of the urban heat island and therefore enhances quality of life. Local and regional planning policies can control land use changes in an urban region, which in turn alter local climate regulation. Thus, this paper describes a method for estimating the impacts of current land uses as well as local and regional planning policies on local climate regulation, using evapotranspiration and land surface emissivity as indicators. This method can be used by practitioners to evaluate their policies. An application of this method is demonstrated for the case study Leipzig (Germany). Results for six selected planning policies in Leipzig indicate their distinct impacts on climate regulation and especially the role of their spatial extent. The proposed method was found to easily produce a qualitative assessment of impacts of planning policies on climate regulation.

  9. Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Southeast Region (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    2013-07-01

    Offshore wind is a clean, renewable source of energy and can be an economic driver in the United States. To better understand the employment opportunities and other potential regional economic impacts from offshore wind development, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded research that focuses on four regions of the country. The studies use multiple scenarios with various local job and domestic manufacturing content assumptions. Each regional study uses the new offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This fact sheet summarizes the potential economic impacts identified by the study for the Southeast (defined here as Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia).

  10. Probing the severe haze pollution in three typical regions of China: Characteristics, sources and regional impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Qiongzhen; Zhuang, Guoshun; Huang, Kan; Liu, Tingna; Deng, Congrui; Xu, Jian; Lin, Yanfen; Guo, Zhigang; Chen, Ying; Fu, Qingyan; Fu, Joshua S.; Chen, Jiakuan

    2015-11-01

    PM2.5 with its major chemical components were measured and analyzed during a concurrent haze in Jan. 1-19, 2013 at three sites (Shanghai, Beijing, and Huaniao, a remote isle over the East China Sea) to probe the sources and formation process of such a severe haze over three typical regions in China. The mean PM2.5 concentrations during the severely polluted days reached 180.8 μg m-3, 299.2 μg m-3, and 131.1 μg m-3 in Shanghai, Beijing, and the Huaniao Isle, respectively. The mass ratio of the sum of SO42- , NO3-, and NH4+ to PM2.5 were over 1/3 during the polluted days at all the three sites. Promoted gas-to-particle transformations from acidic SO2 and NOx to SO42- and NO3- under high relative humidity conditions played a major role in the formation of this severe haze. Significant contribution of traffic emissions to the haze formation over China was suggested to be one of the major sources in triggering the heavy haze over China. Specifically, there was a more contribution from traffic in Shanghai than in Beijing as indicated by the higher NO3-/SO42- ratio in Shanghai. In Beijing, the enhanced coal combustion for winter heating along with the traffic emission was suggested to be the major two sources of this haze episode. Typical pollution elements such as As, Cd, and Pb as well as Cl- and K+ were substantially enhanced in the severely polluted days. Although the Huaniao Isle is located in the remote oceanic area as a background site, pollution elements, secondary ions, and K+ all increased substantially during the polluted days. As visualized by the backward air mass trajectories associated with the potential source region identification technique, air masses that passed over Northern China and Yangtze River Delta evidently invaded the offshore areas of Eastern China. The ratios of As, Cd, Cu, Zn, and K+ to Al at the Huaniao Isle were closer to those of Beijing rather than Shanghai, indicating that the marine aerosol over the East China Sea had been

  11. Evaluation of GCMs in the context of regional predictive climate impact studies.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kokorev, Vasily; Anisimov, Oleg

    2016-04-01

    Significant improvements in the structure, complexity, and general performance of earth system models (ESMs) have been made in the recent decade. Despite these efforts, the range of uncertainty in predicting regional climate impacts remains large. The problem is two-fold. Firstly, there is an intrinsic conflict between the local and regional scales of climate impacts and adaptation strategies, on one hand, and larger scales, at which ESMs demonstrate better performance, on the other. Secondly, there is a growing understanding that majority of the impacts involve thresholds, and are thus driven by extreme climate events, whereas accent in climate projections is conventionally made on gradual changes in means. In this study we assess the uncertainty in projecting extreme climatic events within a region-specific and process-oriented context by examining the skills and ranking of ESMs. We developed a synthetic regionalization of Northern Eurasia that accounts for the spatial features of modern climatic changes and major environmental and socio-economical impacts. Elements of such fragmentation could be considered as natural focus regions that bridge the gap between the spatial scales adopted in climate-impacts studies and patterns of climate change simulated by ESMs. In each focus region we selected several target meteorological variables that govern the key regional impacts, and examined the ability of the models to replicate their seasonal and annual means and trends by testing them against observations. We performed a similar evaluation with regard to extremes and statistics of the target variables. And lastly, we used the results of these analyses to select sets of models that demonstrate the best performance at selected focus regions with regard to selected sets of target meteorological parameters. Ultimately, we ranked the models according to their skills, identified top-end models that "better than average" reproduce the behavior of climatic parameters, and

  12. Correlation of lunar far-side magnetized regions with ringed impact basins

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, K.A.; Wilhelms, D.E.

    1979-01-01

    By the method of electron reflection, we have identified seven well-defined magnetized regions in the equatorial belt of the lunar far side sampled by the Apollo 16 Particles and Fields subsatellite. Most of these surface magnetic fields lie within one basin radius from the rim of a ringed impact basin, where thick deposits of basin ejecta are observed or inferred. The strongest of the seven magnetic features is linear, at least 250 km long, and radial to the Freundlich-Sharonov basin. The apparent correlation with basin ejecta suggests some form of impact origin for the observed permanently magnetized regions. ?? 1979.

  13. Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andy J.; Knutti, Reto; Wilby, Robert L.

    2016-01-01

    Global temperature targets, such as the widely accepted limit of an increase above pre-industrial temperatures of two degrees Celsius, may fail to communicate the urgency of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The translation of CO2 emissions into regional- and impact-related climate targets could be more powerful because such targets are more directly aligned with individual national interests. We illustrate this approach using regional changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation. These scale robustly with global temperature across scenarios, and thus with cumulative CO2 emissions. This is particularly relevant for changes in regional extreme temperatures on land, which are much greater than changes in the associated global mean.

  14. Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets.

    PubMed

    Seneviratne, Sonia I; Donat, Markus G; Pitman, Andy J; Knutti, Reto; Wilby, Robert L

    2016-01-28

    Global temperature targets, such as the widely accepted limit of an increase above pre-industrial temperatures of two degrees Celsius, may fail to communicate the urgency of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The translation of CO2 emissions into regional- and impact-related climate targets could be more powerful because such targets are more directly aligned with individual national interests. We illustrate this approach using regional changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation. These scale robustly with global temperature across scenarios, and thus with cumulative CO2 emissions. This is particularly relevant for changes in regional extreme temperatures on land, which are much greater than changes in the associated global mean.

  15. Regional disaster impact analysis: comparing input-output and computable general equilibrium models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koks, Elco E.; Carrera, Lorenzo; Jonkeren, Olaf; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Husby, Trond G.; Thissen, Mark; Standardi, Gabriele; Mysiak, Jaroslav

    2016-08-01

    A variety of models have been applied to assess the economic losses of disasters, of which the most common ones are input-output (IO) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. In addition, an increasing number of scholars have developed hybrid approaches: one that combines both or either of them in combination with noneconomic methods. While both IO and CGE models are widely used, they are mainly compared on theoretical grounds. Few studies have compared disaster impacts of different model types in a systematic way and for the same geographical area, using similar input data. Such a comparison is valuable from both a scientific and policy perspective as the magnitude and the spatial distribution of the estimated losses are born likely to vary with the chosen modelling approach (IO, CGE, or hybrid). Hence, regional disaster impact loss estimates resulting from a range of models facilitate better decisions and policy making. Therefore, this study analyses the economic consequences for a specific case study, using three regional disaster impact models: two hybrid IO models and a CGE model. The case study concerns two flood scenarios in the Po River basin in Italy. Modelling results indicate that the difference in estimated total (national) economic losses and the regional distribution of those losses may vary by up to a factor of 7 between the three models, depending on the type of recovery path. Total economic impact, comprising all Italian regions, is negative in all models though.

  16. EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY OF REGIONAL AIR QUALITY OVER THE UNITED STATES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The United States has established a series of standards for criteria and other air pollutants to safeguard air quality to protect human health and the environment. The Climate Impact on Regional Air Quality (CIRAQ) project, a collaborative research effort involving multiple Fede...

  17. IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON UV EXPOSURE IN COASTAL SHELF REGIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Global change has a variety of impact on UV exposure in coastal shelf regions of the southeastern United States. Changes in solar UV reaching the water surface have been caused by human alterations of atmospheric composition such as depletion of the ozone layer.

  18. Cost analysis of impacts of climate change on regional air quality.

    PubMed

    Liao, Kuo-Jen; Tagaris, Efthimios; Russell, Armistead G; Amar, Praveen; He, Shan; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Woo, Jung-Hun

    2010-02-01

    Climate change has been predicted to adversely impact regional air quality with resulting health effects. Here a regional air quality model and a technology analysis tool are used to assess the additional emission reductions required and associated costs to offset impacts of climate change on air quality. Analysis is done for six regions and five major cities in the continental United States. Future climate is taken from a global climate model simulation for 2049-2051 using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario, and emission inventories are the same as current ones to assess impacts of climate change alone on air quality and control expenses. On the basis of the IPCC A1B emission scenario and current control technologies, least-cost sets of emission reductions for simultaneously offsetting impacts of climate change on regionally averaged 4th highest daily maximum 8-hr average ozone and yearly averaged PM2.5 (particulate matter [PM] with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 microm) for the six regions examined are predicted to range from $36 million (1999$) yr(-1) in the Southeast to $5.5 billion yr(-1) in the Northeast. However, control costs to offset climate-related pollutant increases in urban areas can be greater than the regional costs because of the locally exacerbated ozone levels. An annual cost of $4.1 billion is required for offsetting climate-induced air quality impairment in 2049-2051 in the five cities alone. Overall, an annual cost of $9.3 billion is estimated for offsetting climate change impacts on air quality for the six regions and five cities examined. Much of the additional expense is to reduce increased levels of ozone. Additional control costs for offsetting the impacts everywhere in the United States could be larger than the estimates in this study. This study shows that additional emission controls and associated costs for offsetting climate impacts could significantly increase currently estimated

  19. A Generalized Assessment of the Impact of Regionalization and Provider Learning on Patient Outcomes.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yun; Lee, Shoou-Yih D; Gilleskie, Donna B; Sun, Yepeng; Padakandla, Arun; Jacobs, Bruce L; Montgomery, Jeffery S; Montie, James E; Wei, John T; Hollenbeck, Brent K

    2016-11-01

    We present a generalized model to assess the impact of regionalization on patient care outcomes in the presence of heterogeneity in provider learning. The model characterizes best regionalization policies as optimal allocations of patients across providers with heterogeneous learning abilities. We explore issues that arise when solving for best regionalization, which depends on statistically estimated provider learning curves. We explain how to maintain the problem's tractability and reformulate it into a binary integer program problem to improve solvability. Using our model, best regionalization solutions can be computed within reasonable time using current-day computers. We apply the model to minimally invasive radical prostatectomy and estimate that, in comparison to current care delivery, within-state regionalization can shorten length of stay by at least 40.8%.

  20. Economic and environmental impacts of water quality protection policies: 1. Framework for regional analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernardo, D. J.; Mapp, H. P.; Sabbagh, G. J.; Geleta, S.; Watkins, K. B.; Elliott, R. L.; Stone, J. F.

    1993-09-01

    Agricultural production systems provide some unique challenges for assessing the regional impacts of water quality protection policies. A modeling framework is proposed for assessing the environmental and economic consequences of groundwater quality protection policies at the regional level. The model consists of three components: (1) a crop simulation/chemical transport model, (2) a regional economic optimization model, and (3) an aquifer groundwater flow model. The three submodels are linked and run recursively to simulate producer response to alternative water quality policies over a multiple-year time horizon. Model solutions provide projections of production practices employed on various resource situations across the region. Economic evaluation of alternative policies may be based upon regional agricultural income, crop production levels, input use, and changes in aquifer water levels over time. Measures of agricultural nonpoint source pollution provided by the model include nitrate, phosphorus and pesticide loadings in deep percolation and runoff water, as well as sediment losses.

  1. Integrated regional assessment of global climatic change: lessons from the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohen, Stewart J.

    1996-04-01

    This paper outlines the potential role integrated regional assessments of global climatic change scenarios could play in building better links between science and related policy concerns. The concept is illustrated through description of an ongoing case study from Canada—the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS). As part of the Government of Canada's Green Plan, the Global Warming Science Program includes a study of regional impacts of global warming scenarios in the Mackenzie Basin, located in northwestern Canada. The MBIS is a six-year program focussing on potential climate-induced changes in the land and water resource base, and the implications of four scenarios of global climatic change on land use and economic policies in this region. These policy issues include interjurisdictional water management, sustainability of native lifestyles, economic development opportunities (agriculture, forestry, tourism, etc.), sustainability of ecosystems and infrastructure maintenance. MBIS is due to be completed in 1997. MBIS represents an attempt to address regional impacts by incorporating a "family of integrators" into the study framework, and by directly involving stakeholders in planning and research activities. The experience in organizing and carrying out this project may provide some lessons for others interested in organizing regional or country studies.

  2. Quantification of regional radiative impacts and climate effects of tropical fire aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tosca, M. G.; Zender, C. S.; Randerson, J. T.

    2011-12-01

    Regionally expansive smoke clouds originating from deforestation fires in Indonesia can modify local precipitation patterns via direct aerosol scattering and absorption of solar radiation (Tosca et al., 2010). Here we quantify the regional climate impacts of fire aerosols for three tropical burning regions that together account for about 70% of global annual fire emissions. We use the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5) coupled to a slab ocean model (SOM) embedded within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In addition to direct aerosol radiative effects, CAM5 also quantifies indirect, semi-direct and cloud microphysical aerosol effects. Climate impacts are determined using regionally adjusted emissions data that produce realistic aerosol optical depths in CAM5. We first analyzed a single 12-year transient simulation (1996-2007) forced with unadjusted emissions estimates from the Global Fire Emissions Database, version 3 (GFEDv3) and compared the resulting aerosol optical depths (AODs) for 4 different burning regions (equatorial Asia, southern Africa, South America and boreal North America) to observed MISR and MODIS AODs for the same period. Based on this analysis we adjusted emissions for each burning region between 150 and 300% and forced a second simulation with the regionally adjusted emissions. Improved AODs from this simulation are compared to AERONET observations available at 15 stations throughout the tropics. We present here two transient simulations--one with the adjusted fire emissions and one without fires--to quantify the cumulative fire aerosol climate impact for three major tropical burning regions (equatorial Asia, southern Africa and South America). Specifically, we quantify smoke effects on radiation, precipitation, and temperature. References Tosca, M.G., J.T. Randerson, C.S. Zender, M.G. Flanner and P.J. Rasch (2010), Do biomass burning aerosols intensify drought in equatorial Asia during El Nino?, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 3515

  3. Major Impact of Fleet Renewal Over Airports Located in the Most Important Region of Brazil

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maters, Rafael Waltz; deRoodeTorres, Roberta; Santo, Respicio A. Espirito, Jr.

    2003-01-01

    The present article discusses and analyses the major impacts of the Brazilian carriers fleet renewal regarding Brazilian airport infrastructure in the most important region of the country, the Southeast (SE). A brief historical overview of the country's airline fleet will be presented, demonstrating the need for its renewal (m fact, Brazilian carriers started a major fleet renewal program m the last five years), while analyzing the periods in which a new breed of aircraft was put into service by the major carriers operating in the SE region. The trend of operating the classic regional jets plus the forthcoming entry into service of the "large regional jets" (LRJ, 70-115 seaters) in several point-to-point routes are presented along with the country's carriers" reality of operating these former aircraft in several high-capacity and medium-range routes. The article will focus on the ability of four of the major Southeast's airports to cope with the fleet modernization, mainly due to the fact that the region studied is the most socioeconomic developed, by far, with the largest demand for air transportation, thus making the impacts much more perceptible for the communities and the airport management involved. With the emergence of these impacts, several new projects and investments are being discussed and pushed forward, despite budgetary constrains being a reality in almost every Brazilian city, even in the SE region. In view of this, the paper presents how the general planning could be carried out in order to adapt the airports' infrastructures in function of the proposed (and in some cases, necessary) fleet renewal. Ultimately, we will present the present picture and two future scenarios m order to determine the level of service in the existent passenger terminal facilities in the wake of the possible operation of several new aircraft. Keywords: Airline fleet planning, Airport planning, Regional development, Regional Jets.

  4. Regional aspects of climate change impacts and related adaptation options in European agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eitzinger, J.

    2009-09-01

    Through a change in climatic conditions and variability, for example, extreme weather events (heat waves, droughts, etc.) are likely to occur more frequently in different spatial and time scales in future. Since agriculture is one the man' activities more dependant on weather behaviour, the impact on risks of agricultural production is indeed one of the most important issues in climate change assessments. Therefore an early recognition of risks and implementation of adaptation strategies is crucial as anticipatory and precautionary adaptation is more effective and less costly than forced, last minute, emergency adaptation or retrofitting. Results of climate change impact and adaptation studies often show considerable different results, depending on the spatial scale of regionalisation. However, for a decision maker, only a high spatial resolution of related study results are useful as it can represent local conditions and its spatial variablitiy much better. Therefore the ADAGIO project (adagio-eu.org) was designed to focus on regional studies in order to uncover regional specific problems. In this context a bottom-up approach is used beside the top-down approach of using scientifc studies, involving regional experts and farmers in the evaluation of potential regional vulnerabilites and adaptation options. Preliminary results of the regional studies and gathered feedback from experts and farmers show in general that (increasing) drought and heat is the main factor having impact on agricultural vulnerability not only in the mediterranean region, but also in the Central and Eastern European regions. Another important aspect is that the increasing risk of pest and diseases may play a more important role for agricultural vulnerability than assumed before, however, till now this field is only rarely investigated in Europe. An important aspect is also that there are increasing regional differences in the crop production potential in Europe due to climate change and that

  5. Regional air quality management aspects of climate change: impact of climate mitigation options on regional air emissions.

    PubMed

    Rudokas, Jason; Miller, Paul J; Trail, Marcus A; Russell, Armistead G

    2015-04-21

    We investigate the projected impact of six climate mitigation scenarios on U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOX) associated with energy use in major sectors of the U.S. economy (commercial, residential, industrial, electricity generation, and transportation). We use the EPA U.S. 9-region national database with the MARKet Allocation energy system model to project emissions changes over the 2005 to 2050 time frame. The modeled scenarios are two carbon tax, two low carbon transportation, and two biomass fuel choice scenarios. In the lower carbon tax and both biomass fuel choice scenarios, SO2 and NOX achieve reductions largely through pre-existing rules and policies, with only relatively modest additional changes occurring from the climate mitigation measures. The higher carbon tax scenario projects greater declines in CO2 and SO2 relative to the 2050 reference case, but electricity sector NOX increases. This is a result of reduced investments in power plant NOX controls in earlier years in anticipation of accelerated coal power plant retirements, energy penalties associated with carbon capture systems, and shifting of NOX emissions in later years from power plants subject to a regional NOX cap to those in regions not subject to the cap. PMID:25803240

  6. Regional air quality management aspects of climate change: impact of climate mitigation options on regional air emissions.

    PubMed

    Rudokas, Jason; Miller, Paul J; Trail, Marcus A; Russell, Armistead G

    2015-04-21

    We investigate the projected impact of six climate mitigation scenarios on U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOX) associated with energy use in major sectors of the U.S. economy (commercial, residential, industrial, electricity generation, and transportation). We use the EPA U.S. 9-region national database with the MARKet Allocation energy system model to project emissions changes over the 2005 to 2050 time frame. The modeled scenarios are two carbon tax, two low carbon transportation, and two biomass fuel choice scenarios. In the lower carbon tax and both biomass fuel choice scenarios, SO2 and NOX achieve reductions largely through pre-existing rules and policies, with only relatively modest additional changes occurring from the climate mitigation measures. The higher carbon tax scenario projects greater declines in CO2 and SO2 relative to the 2050 reference case, but electricity sector NOX increases. This is a result of reduced investments in power plant NOX controls in earlier years in anticipation of accelerated coal power plant retirements, energy penalties associated with carbon capture systems, and shifting of NOX emissions in later years from power plants subject to a regional NOX cap to those in regions not subject to the cap.

  7. Regional Economic Accounting (REAcct). A software tool for rapidly approximating economic impacts

    SciTech Connect

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Vargas, Vanessa N.; Loose, Verne William; Starks, Shirley J.; Ellebracht, Lory A.

    2011-07-01

    This paper describes the Regional Economic Accounting (REAcct) analysis tool that has been in use for the last 5 years to rapidly estimate approximate economic impacts for disruptions due to natural or manmade events. It is based on and derived from the well-known and extensively documented input-output modeling technique initially presented by Leontief and more recently further developed by numerous contributors. REAcct provides county-level economic impact estimates in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment for any area in the United States. The process for using REAcct incorporates geospatial computational tools and site-specific economic data, permitting the identification of geographic impact zones that allow differential magnitude and duration estimates to be specified for regions affected by a simulated or actual event. Using these data as input to REAcct, the number of employees for 39 directly affected economic sectors (including 37 industry production sectors and 2 government sectors) are calculated and aggregated to provide direct impact estimates. Indirect estimates are then calculated using Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II) multipliers. The interdependent relationships between critical infrastructures, industries, and markets are captured by the relationships embedded in the inputoutput modeling structure.

  8. The Impact of Ambulance and Patient Diversion on Crowdedness of Multiple Emergency Departments in a Region.

    PubMed

    Kao, Chung-Yao; Yang, Jhen-Ci; Lin, Chih-Hao

    2015-01-01

    Emergency department (ED) overcrowding threatens healthcare quality. Ambulance diversion (AD) may relieve ED overcrowding; however, diverting patients from an overcrowded ED will load neighboring EDs with more patients and may result in regional overcrowding. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of different diversion strategies on the crowdedness of multiple EDs in a region. The importance of regional coordination was also explored. A queuing model for patient flow was utilized to develop a computer program for simulating AD among EDs in a region. Key parameters, including patient arrival rates, percentages of patients of different acuity levels, percentage of patients transported by ambulance, and total resources of EDs, were assigned based on real data. The crowdedness indices of each ED and the regional crowdedness index were assessed to evaluate the effectiveness of various AD strategies. Diverting patients equally to all other EDs in a region is better than diverting patients only to EDs with more resources. The effect of diverting all ambulance-transported patients is similar to that of diverting only low-acuity patients. To minimize regional crowdedness, ambulatory patients should be sent to proper EDs when AD is initiated. Based on a queuing model with parameters calibrated by real data, patient flows of EDs in a region were simulated by a computer program. From a regional point of view, randomly diverting ambulatory patients provides almost no benefit. With regards to minimizing the crowdedness of the whole region, the most promising strategy is to divert all patients equally to all other EDs that are not already crowded. This result implies that communication and coordination among regional hospitals are crucial to relieve overall crowdedness. A regional coordination center may prioritize AD strategies to optimize ED utility. PMID:26659589

  9. The Impact of Ambulance and Patient Diversion on Crowdedness of Multiple Emergency Departments in a Region

    PubMed Central

    Kao, Chung-Yao; Yang, Jhen-Ci; Lin, Chih-Hao

    2015-01-01

    Emergency department (ED) overcrowding threatens healthcare quality. Ambulance diversion (AD) may relieve ED overcrowding; however, diverting patients from an overcrowded ED will load neighboring EDs with more patients and may result in regional overcrowding. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of different diversion strategies on the crowdedness of multiple EDs in a region. The importance of regional coordination was also explored. A queuing model for patient flow was utilized to develop a computer program for simulating AD among EDs in a region. Key parameters, including patient arrival rates, percentages of patients of different acuity levels, percentage of patients transported by ambulance, and total resources of EDs, were assigned based on real data. The crowdedness indices of each ED and the regional crowdedness index were assessed to evaluate the effectiveness of various AD strategies. Diverting patients equally to all other EDs in a region is better than diverting patients only to EDs with more resources. The effect of diverting all ambulance-transported patients is similar to that of diverting only low-acuity patients. To minimize regional crowdedness, ambulatory patients should be sent to proper EDs when AD is initiated. Based on a queuing model with parameters calibrated by real data, patient flows of EDs in a region were simulated by a computer program. From a regional point of view, randomly diverting ambulatory patients provides almost no benefit. With regards to minimizing the crowdedness of the whole region, the most promising strategy is to divert all patients equally to all other EDs that are not already crowded. This result implies that communication and coordination among regional hospitals are crucial to relieve overall crowdedness. A regional coordination center may prioritize AD strategies to optimize ED utility. PMID:26659589

  10. Trans-boundary Air Quality and Health Impacts of Emissions in Various Regions in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, Y.; Yim, S. H. L.

    2015-12-01

    In last few decades, China has gone through a rapid development, resulting in urbanization and industrialization. However, the abundant economic achievements were gained at the cost of a sharp deterioration of air quality. Previous research has reported the adverse health outcome from outdoor air pollution in China. Nevertheless, the trans-boundary air quality and health impacts due to emissions in various regions in China have yet fully understood. Our study aims to comprehensively apportion the attribution of emissions in seven regions in China, which are defined based on their geographical locations, to air pollutions, as well as the resultant health impacts in their local areas and other regions, provinces, and cities in China. A regional air quality model is applied to simulate the physical and chemical processes of various pollutants in the atmosphere. The resultant health outcome, such as premature death, is estimated by using the concentration-response functions reported in the literature. We anticipate that our results would serve as a critical reference for research community and policy makers to mitigate the air quality and health impacts of emissions in China.

  11. Climate Impacts Already Affect Every Region of the United States, Report Warns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2014-05-01

    "Climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved firmly into the present," according to the third iteration of the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA), issued by the White House on 6 May. "The observed warming and other climatic changes are triggering wide-ranging impacts in every region of our country and throughout our economy," states the report, titled Climate Change Impacts in the United States, issued through the federal interagency U.S. Global Change Research Program.

  12. Allowable CO2 emissions based on projected changes in regional extremes and related impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Donat, Markus; Pitman, Andy; Knutti, Reto; Wilby, Robert

    2016-04-01

    Global temperature targets, such as the widely accepted 2°C and 1.5° limits, may fail to communicate the urgency of reducing CO2 emissions. Translation of CO2 emissions into regional- and impact-related climate targets could be more powerful because they resonate better with national interests. We illustrate this approach using regional changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation. These scale robustly with global temperature across scenarios, and thus with cumulative CO2 emissions. This is particularly relevant for changes in regional extreme temperatures on land, which are much greater than changes in the associated global mean. Linking cumulative CO2 emission targets to regional consequences, such as changing climate extremes, would be of particular benefit for political decision making, both in the context of climate negotiations and adaptation.

  13. [Characteristics and impact factors of O3 concentrations in mountain background region of East China].

    PubMed

    Su, Bin-Bin

    2013-07-01

    The O3 concentrations were measured online from March 2011 to February 2012 at the national atmospheric background monitoring station in Wuyishan of Fujian Province to discuss the characteristic of O3 concentrations and the impact factors in forest and mountain background region of East China. HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) Model was used to investigate the potential sources of particulates during the pollution episodes. The results showed that the background concentration of O3 was (87.9 +/- 34.1) microg x m(-3). Seasonal variations of O3 loadings were observed, and the loadings decreased in the order spring > autumn > summer > winter. Analysis of correlation between O3 and other gas pollutants suggested regional transportation, stratospheric injection and photochemical production were the major sources of O3 in Wuyishan background station. The episodes were related with transportations of air parcel from Yangtze River Delta region, Pearl River Delta region and the high altitudes.

  14. Regional impacts of oil and gas development on ozone formation in the western United States.

    PubMed

    Rodriguez, Marco A; Barna, Michael G; Moore, Tom

    2009-09-01

    The Intermountain West is currently experiencing increased growth in oil and gas production, which has the potential to affect the visibility and air quality of various Class I areas in the region. The following work presents an analysis of these impacts using the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx). CAMx is a state-of-the-science, "one-atmosphere" Eulerian photochemical dispersion model that has been widely used in the assessment of gaseous and particulate air pollution (ozone, fine [PM2.5], and coarse [PM10] particulate matter). Meteorology and emissions inventories developed by the Western Regional Air Partnership Regional Modeling Center for regional haze analysis and planning are used to establish an ozone baseline simulation for the year 2002. The predicted range of values for ozone in the national parks and other Class I areas in the western United States is then evaluated with available observations from the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET). This evaluation demonstrates the model's suitability for subsequent planning, sensitivity, and emissions control strategy modeling. Once the ozone baseline simulation has been established, an analysis of the model results is performed to investigate the regional impacts of oil and gas development on the ozone concentrations that affect the air quality of Class I areas. Results indicate that the maximum 8-hr ozone enhancement from oil and gas (9.6 parts per billion [ppb]) could affect southwestern Colorado and northwestern New Mexico. Class I areas in this region that are likely to be impacted by increased ozone include Mesa Verde National Park and Weminuche Wilderness Area in Colorado and San Pedro Parks Wilderness Area, Bandelier Wilderness Area, Pecos Wilderness Area, and Wheeler Peak Wilderness Area in New Mexico.

  15. Regional impacts of oil and gas development on ozone formation in the western United States.

    PubMed

    Rodriguez, Marco A; Barna, Michael G; Moore, Tom

    2009-09-01

    The Intermountain West is currently experiencing increased growth in oil and gas production, which has the potential to affect the visibility and air quality of various Class I areas in the region. The following work presents an analysis of these impacts using the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx). CAMx is a state-of-the-science, "one-atmosphere" Eulerian photochemical dispersion model that has been widely used in the assessment of gaseous and particulate air pollution (ozone, fine [PM2.5], and coarse [PM10] particulate matter). Meteorology and emissions inventories developed by the Western Regional Air Partnership Regional Modeling Center for regional haze analysis and planning are used to establish an ozone baseline simulation for the year 2002. The predicted range of values for ozone in the national parks and other Class I areas in the western United States is then evaluated with available observations from the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET). This evaluation demonstrates the model's suitability for subsequent planning, sensitivity, and emissions control strategy modeling. Once the ozone baseline simulation has been established, an analysis of the model results is performed to investigate the regional impacts of oil and gas development on the ozone concentrations that affect the air quality of Class I areas. Results indicate that the maximum 8-hr ozone enhancement from oil and gas (9.6 parts per billion [ppb]) could affect southwestern Colorado and northwestern New Mexico. Class I areas in this region that are likely to be impacted by increased ozone include Mesa Verde National Park and Weminuche Wilderness Area in Colorado and San Pedro Parks Wilderness Area, Bandelier Wilderness Area, Pecos Wilderness Area, and Wheeler Peak Wilderness Area in New Mexico. PMID:19785277

  16. Assessing climate change impacts on water resources in remote mountain regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buytaert, Wouter; De Bièvre, Bert

    2013-04-01

    From a water resources perspective, remote mountain regions are often considered as a basket case. They are often regions where poverty is often interlocked with multiple threats to water supply, data scarcity, and high uncertainties. In these environments, it is paramount to generate locally relevant knowledge about water resources and how they impact local livelihoods. This is often problematic. Existing environmental data collection tends to be geographically biased towards more densely populated regions, and prioritized towards strategic economic activities. Data may also be locked behind institutional and technological barriers. These issues create a "knowledge trap" for data-poor regions, which is especially acute in remote and hard-to-reach mountain regions. We present lessons learned from a decade of water resources research in remote mountain regions of the Andes, Africa and South Asia. We review the entire tool chain of assessing climate change impacts on water resources, including the interrogation and downscaling of global circulation models, translating climate variables in water availability and access, and assessing local vulnerability. In global circulation models, mountain regions often stand out as regions of high uncertainties and lack of agreement of future trends. This is partly a technical artifact because of the different resolution and representation of mountain topography, but it also highlights fundamental uncertainties in climate impacts on mountain climate. This problem also affects downscaling efforts, because regional climate models should be run in very high spatial resolution to resolve local gradients, which is computationally very expensive. At the same time statistical downscaling methods may fail to find significant relations between local climate properties and synoptic processes. Further uncertainties are introduced when downscaled climate variables such as precipitation and temperature are to be translated in hydrologically

  17. Assessing the impact of urbanization on regional net primary productivity in Jiangyin County, China.

    PubMed

    Xu, C; Liu, M; An, S; Chen, J M; Yan, P

    2007-11-01

    Urbanization is one of the most important aspects of global change. The process of urbanization has a significant impact on the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle. The Yangtze Delta region has one of the highest rates of urbanization in China. In this study, carried out in Jiangyin County as a representative region within the Yangtze Delta, land use and land cover changes were estimated using Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery. With these satellite data and the BEPS process model (Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator), the impacts of urbanization on regional net primary productivity (NPP) and annual net primary production were assessed for 1991 and 2002. Landsat-based land cover maps in 1991 and 2002 showed that urban development encroached large areas of cropland and forest. Expansion of residential areas and reduction of vegetated areas were the major forms of land transformation in Jiangyin County during this period. Mean NPP of the total area decreased from 818 to 699 gCm(-2)yr(-1) during the period of 1991 to 2002. NPP of cropland was only reduced by 2.7% while forest NPP was reduced by 9.3%. Regional annual primary production decreased from 808 GgC in 1991 to 691 GgC in 2002, a reduction of 14.5%. Land cover changes reduced regional NPP directly, and the increasing intensity and frequency of human-induced disturbance in the urbanized areas could be the main reason for the decrease in forest NPP.

  18. Wintertime Air Quality Impacts from Oil and Natural Gas Drilling Operations in the Bakken Formation Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Evanoski-Cole, Ashley; Sive, Barkley; Zhou, Yong; Prenni, Anthony; Schurman, Misha; Day, Derek; Sullivan, Amy; Li, Yi; Hand, Jenny; Gebhart, Kristi; Schichtel, Bret; Collett, Jeffrey

    2016-04-01

    Oil and natural gas extraction has dramatically increased in the last decade in the United States due to the increased use of unconventional drilling techniques which include horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. The impact of these drilling activities on local and regional air quality in oil and gas basins across the country are still relatively unknown, especially in recently developed basins such as the Bakken shale formation. This study is the first to conduct a comprehensive characterization of the regional air quality in the Bakken region. The Bakken shale formation, part of the Williston basin, is located in North Dakota and Montana in the United States and Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Canada. Oil and gas drilling operations can impact air quality in a variety of ways, including the generation of atmospheric particulate matter (PM), hazardous air pollutants, ozone, and greenhouse gas emissions. During the winter especially, PM formation can be enhanced and meteorological conditions can favor increased concentrations of PM and other pollutants. In this study, ground-based measurements throughout the Bakken region in North Dakota and Montana were collected over two consecutive winters to gain regional trends of air quality impacts from the oil and gas drilling activities. Additionally, one field site had a comprehensive suite of instrumentation operating at high time resolution to gain detailed characterization of the atmospheric composition. Measurements included organic carbon and black carbon concentrations in PM, the characterization of inorganic PM, inorganic gases, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), precipitation and meteorology. These elevated PM episodes were further investigated using the local meteorological conditions and regional transport patterns. Episodes of elevated concentrations of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide were also detected. The VOC concentrations were analyzed and specific VOCs that are known oil and gas tracers were used

  19. Changes in intensity of the regional Hadley cell in Indian Ocean and its impacts on surrounding regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freitas, Ana Carolina Vasques; Aímola, Luis; Ambrizzi, Tércio; de Oliveira, Cristiano Prestrelo

    2016-09-01

    The impacts of changes in the intensity of the regional Hadley Cell (HC) in the Indian Ocean (HCIO) on its surrounding regions are investigated during the period 1979-2013. A strengthening of the HCIO and the Indian monsoon (IM) is found during austral winter (JJA) and spring (SON) seasons. This is associated with the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific and Indian Ocean. A La Niña signal started to form in JJA over the equatorial Pacific region, and in SON, it was completely developed. Significant positive SST anomalies are seen over the western Pacific and western Indian Ocean around 10°S in JJA, associated with positive temperature anomalies in the south of China, in the north of the Maritime Continent, and in the southeastern coast of Africa. In SON, they are observed over the western Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean around the equator, associated with positive temperature anomalies observed on a great part of the Maritime Continent and southeastern Atlantic Ocean. Positive rainfall anomalies are seen mainly over the south of India, south of China, Maritime Continent, and eastern coast of Australia. In SON, the connection monsoon-ENSO-Hadley is stronger, because of a series of positive feedbacks that reinforce the initial connection. SST gradients explain much of the variability in the intensity of the HCIO and, especially, of the IM. However, other factors also seem to come into play in determining the changes of the HCIO intensity, whereas the SST changes have a dominant influence on the IM.

  20. Inductive analysis about the impact of climate warming on regional geomorphic evolution in arid area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anayit, Mattohti; Abulizi, Mailiya

    2016-04-01

    Climate change on the surface of earth will produce a chain reaction among so many global natural environmental elements. Namely, all the issues will be affected by the climate change, just like the regional water environment, formation and development of landscape, plants and animals living environment, the survival of microorganisms, the human economic environment and health, and the whole social environment changes at well. But because of slow frequency of climate change and it is volatility change, its influence on other factors and the overall environmental performance is not obvious, and its reflection performs slowly. Using regional weather data, we calculated qualitatively and quantitatively and did analysis the impact of climate warming on Xinjiang (a province of China) geomorphic evolution elements, including the ground weather, erosion rate, collapse change, landslide occurrences changes and impact debris flow, combining the field survey and indoor test methods. Key words: climate change; the geomorphic induction; landscape change in river basin; Xinjiang

  1. Biomass district heating in the Tug Hill, NY: Feasibility and regional economic impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hendricks, Aaron

    Biomass district heating (BDH) has the potential to stimulate rural economies in the Tug Hill region of New York State by establishing a local industry and providing lower cost heat compared to the local alternative, #2 fuel oil. However, the competitiveness and economic impact of BDH networks in rural villages is largely unknown. This study proposes a methodology to provide initial assessments of the feasibility of BDH in rural communities. BDH would deliver heat below the cost of the local alternative in eight of the ten study villages examined. Capital costs comprised over 80% of the project costs, illuminating the importance of reaching a sufficient heat density; however, specific building heat was a stronger determinant of a village's feasibility. An input-output analysis determined that BDH would generate $18.6 million in output and create 143 jobs throughout the three county region, a significant impact if concentrated around the study villages.

  2. Health impacts of climate change and biosecurity in the Asian Pacific region.

    PubMed

    Sly, Peter D

    2011-01-01

    Our climate is changing as a result of human activity, and such changes have the potential to have a significant impact on human health. The basic requirements for health--clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food and secure shelter--are all vulnerable to climate change. Low-income developing countries are especially vulnerable; no country, however, is totally immune. In Australia, we are already seeing evidence of the health effects of climate change with an increase in temperature-related food poisoning events and an increase in mosquito-borne infections, including Ross River virus and Dengue fever. In the Asian Pacific region the issues identified as most pressing vary from country to country, but a common theme is a lack of public understanding and education and lack of capacity for implementing mitigation strategies. Strategies addressing the health impacts of climate change must incorporate the principles of social justice and equity within the region.

  3. Reducing the impacts of flood-induced reservoir turbidity on a regional water supply system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chou, Frederick N.-F.; Wu, ChiaWen

    2010-02-01

    This paper proposed an integrated simulation model to incorporate the impact of flood-induced reservoir turbidity into water supply. The integrated model includes a regional water allocation model and a one-dimensional settling model of cohesive particles based on Kynch's theory. It simulates the settling of sediment flocculation in a turbid reservoir. The restrictions of water supply during floods is mimicked by simulating turbidity profiles for control points and then quantifying the associated treatment capability of raw water in the regional water allocation model for each time step. This framework can simulate shortages caused by flood-induced high turbidity as well as extended droughts, thus provide a basis for comprehensive evaluations of emergent and regular water supply facilities. A case study of evaluating different measures to mitigate the impact of turbid reservoir on water supply in northern Taiwan is presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.

  4. Investigation and Development of Data-Driven D-Region Model for HF Systems Impacts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eccles, J. V.; Rice, D.; Sojka, J. J.; Hunsucker, R. D.

    2002-01-01

    Space Environment Corporation (SEC) and RP Consultants (RPC) are to develop and validate a weather-capable D region model for making High Frequency (HF) absorption predictions in support of the HF communications and radar communities. The weather-capable model will assimilate solar and earth space observations from NASA satellites. The model will account for solar-induced impacts on HF absorption, including X-rays, Solar Proton Events (SPE's), and auroral precipitation. The work plan includes: I . Optimize D-region model to quickly obtain ion and electron densities for proper HF absorption calculations. 2. Develop indices-driven modules for D-region ionization sources for low, mid, & high latitudes including X-rays, cosmic rays, auroral precipitation, & solar protons. (Note: solar spectrum & auroral modules already exist). 3. Setup low-cost monitors of existing HF beacons and add one single-frequency beacon. 4. Use PENEX HF-link database with HF monitor data to validate D-region/HF absorption model using climatological ionization drivers. 5. Develop algorithms to assimilate NASA satellite data of solar, interplanetary, and auroral observations into ionization source modules. 6. Use PENEX HF-link & HF-beacon data for skill score comparison of assimilation versus climatological D-region/HF absorption model. Only some satellites are available for the PENEX time period, thus, HF-beacon data is necessary. 7. Use HF beacon monitors to develop HF-link data assimilation algorithms for regional improvement to the D-region/HF absorption model.

  5. Collaborative experiment on intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models for climate impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krysanova, Valentina; Hattermann, Fred

    2015-04-01

    The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) is a community-driven modelling effort bringing together impact modellers across sectors and scales to create more consistent and comprehensive projections of the impacts of climate change. This project is aimed in establishing a long-term, systematic, cross-sectoral impact model intercomparison process, including comparison of climate change impacts for multiple sectors using ensemble of climate scenarios and applying global and regional impact models. The project is coordinated by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. An overview of this project and collaborative experiment related to the regional-scale water sector model intercomparison in ISI-MIP will be presented. The regional-scale water sector modelling includes eleven models applied to eleven large-scale river basins worldwide (not every model is applied to every of eleven basins). In total, 60-65 model applications will be done by several collaborating groups from different Institutions. The modelling tools include: ECOMAG, HBV, HBV-light, HYPE, LASCAM, LISFLOOD, mHM, SWAT, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP. Eleven river basins chosen for the model application and intercomparison are: the Rhine and Tagus in Europe, the Niger and Blue Nile in Africa, the Ganges, Lena, Upper Yellow and Upper Yangtze in Asia, the Upper Mississippi and Upper Amazon in America, and the Murray-Darling in Australia. Their drainage areas range between 67,490 km2 (Tagus) to 2,460,000 km2 (Lena). Data from global and regional datasets are used for the model setup and calibration. The model calibration and validation was done using the WATCH climate data for all cases, also checking the representation of high and low percentiles of river discharge. For most of the basins, also intermediate gauge stations were included in the calibration. The calibration and validation results, evaluated with the Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and percent bias (PBIAS), are mostly

  6. Impact of external industrial sources on the regional and local air quality of Mexico Megacity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Almanza, Victor; Molina, Luisa T.; Li, Guohui; Fast, Jerome; Sosa, Gustavo

    2014-05-01

    The air quality of megacities can be influenced by external emissions sources on both regional and global scales. At the same time their outflow emissions can exert an important impact to the surrounding environment. The present study evaluates an SO2 peak observed on 24 March 2006 at the suburban supersite and ambient air quality monitoring stations located in the northern region of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) during MILAGRO campaign. We found that this peak could be related to an important episodic emission event coming from Tizayuca region, northeast of the MCMA. Back trajectories analyses suggest that the emission event started in the early morning at 04:00 LST and lasted for about 9 hours. The estimated emission rate is high, about 2 kg s-1. This finding suggests the possibility of 'overlooked' emission sources in Tizayuca region that could influence the air quality of the MCMA. This further motivated us to study the cement plants, including those in the State of Hidalgo and the State of Mexico. We found that they can also contribute SO2 in the NE region of the basin, at the suburban supersite and that at some monitoring stations; their contribution can be even higher than from the Tula Industrial Complex (TIC). The contribution of TIC to regional ozone levels is also estimated. The model suggests low contribution to the MCMA and slightly higher contribution at the suburban and rural supersites. However, the contribution could be high in the upper northwest region of the basin and in the southwest and south-southeast regions of the State of Hidalgo. In addition, a first estimate of the potential contribution from flaring activities to regional ozone levels is presented. Results suggest that part of the total regional ozone from TIC-generated precursors could be related to flaring activities.

  7. Regional air quality impacts of future fire emissions in Sumatra and Kalimantan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marlier, Miriam E.; DeFries, Ruth S.; Kim, Patrick S.; Gaveau, David L. A.; Koplitz, Shannon N.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Margono, Belinda A.; Myers, Samuel S.

    2015-05-01

    Fire emissions associated with land cover change and land management contribute to the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants, which can affect regional air quality and climate. Mitigating these impacts requires a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between fires and different land cover change trajectories and land management strategies. We develop future fire emissions inventories from 2010-2030 for Sumatra and Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) to assess the impact of varying levels of forest and peatland conservation on air quality in Equatorial Asia. To compile these inventories, we combine detailed land cover information from published maps of forest extent, satellite fire radiative power observations, fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database, and spatially explicit future land cover projections using a land cover change model. We apply the sensitivities of mean smoke concentrations to Indonesian fire emissions, calculated by the GEOS-Chem adjoint model, to our scenario-based future fire emissions inventories to quantify the different impacts of fires on surface air quality across Equatorial Asia. We find that public health impacts are highly sensitive to the location of fires, with emissions from Sumatra contributing more to smoke concentrations at population centers across the region than Kalimantan, which had higher emissions by more than a factor of two. Compared to business-as-usual projections, protecting peatlands from fires reduces smoke concentrations in the cities of Singapore and Palembang by 70% and 40%, and by 60% for the Equatorial Asian region, weighted by the population in each grid cell. Our results indicate the importance of focusing conservation priorities on protecting both forested (intact or logged) peatlands and non-forested peatlands from fire, even after considering potential leakage of deforestation pressure to other areas, in order to limit the impact of fire emissions on atmospheric smoke concentrations and

  8. A Framework to Assess Regional Environmental Impacts of Dedicated Energy Crop Production

    PubMed

    Graham; Downing; Walsh

    1996-07-01

    Numerous studies have evaluated air quality and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits of biomass energy systems, but the potential environmental impacts associated with large-scale changes in land-use patterns needed to produce energy crops have not been quantified. This paper presents a framework to assess the potential soil, water, and biodiversity impacts that may result from the large-scale production of dedicated energy crops. The framework incorporates producer economic decision models with environmental models to assess changes in land use patterns and to quantify the consequent environmental impacts. Economic and policy issues that will affect decisions to produce energy crops are discussed. The framework is used to evaluate erosion and chemical runoff in two Tennessee regions. The analysis shows that production of dedicated energy crops in place of conventional crops will significantly reduce erosion and chemical runoff.

  9. Electron impact polarization expected in solar EUV lines from flaring chromospheres/transition regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fineschi, S.; Fontenla, Juan M.; Macneice, P.; Ljepojevic, N. N.

    1991-01-01

    We have evaluated lower bounds on the degree of impact Extreme Ultraviolet/Ultraviolet (EUV/UV) line polarization expected during solar flares. This polarization arises from collisional excitation by energetic electrons with non-Maxwellian velocity distributions. Linear polarization was observed in the S I 1437 A line by the Ultraviolet Spectrometer and Polarimeter/Solar Maximum Mission (UVSP/SMM) during a flare on 15 July 1980. An early interpretation suggested that impact excitation by electrons propagating through the steep temperature gradient of the flaring transition region/high chromosphere produced this polarization. Our calculations show that the observed polarization in this UV line cannot be due to this effect. We find instead that, in some flare models, the energetic electrons can produce an impact polarization of a few percent in EUV neutral helium lines (i.e., lambda lambda 522, 537, and 584 A).

  10. Disturbance to desert soil ecosystems contributes to dust-mediated impacts at regional scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pointing, Stephen B.; Belnap, Jayne

    2014-01-01

    This review considers the regional scale of impacts arising from disturbance to desert soil ecosystems. Deserts occupy over one-third of the Earth’s terrestrial surface, and biological soil covers are critical to stabilization of desert soils. Disturbance to these can contribute to massive destabilization and mobilization of dust. This results in dust storms that are transported across inter-continental distances where they have profound negative impacts. Dust deposition at high altitudes causes radiative forcing of snowpack that leads directly to altered hydrological regimes and changes to freshwater biogeochemistry. In marine environments dust deposition impacts phytoplankton diazotrophy, and causes coral reef senescence. Increasingly dust is also recognized as a threat to human health.

  11. Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms.

    PubMed

    Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

    2014-01-01

    The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions.

  12. A statistical study of the regional impact of deforestation on climate in the LMD GCM

    SciTech Connect

    Polcher, J.; Laval, K.

    1994-09-01

    The present study uses the general circulation model of the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD-GCM) coupled to the land-surface, vegetation model SECHIBA. The impact of deforestation on climate is discussed. Replacing tropical forests by degraded pastures changes albedo, the roughness length and the hydrological properties of the surface. The experiment was carried out over eleven years using the observed sea surface temperature from 1978 to 1988, which includes two major El Nino events. The discussion of the results in this study is limited to the regional impact of deforestation. The changes found for the surface fluxes in Amazonia, Africa, and Indonesia are examined in detail and compared in order to understand the impact on temperature. Special attention is paid to feedback mechanisms which compensate for the surface changes and to the statistical significant of these results within athe tropical variability of climate. It is shown that the relatively small regional impact of deforestation in this study is statistically significant and largely independent of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. 27 refs., 7 figs., 11 tabs.

  13. Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms.

    PubMed

    Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

    2014-01-01

    The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions. PMID:24518587

  14. Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; de Lavergne, Jean-Guy Devezeaux; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

    2014-02-01

    The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions.

  15. Assessment of Impacts of Climate Variability on Crop Yield over the Terai Region of Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Subedi, S.; Acharya, A.

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural sector in Nepal which alone contributes about 42 % of the total GDP have a huge influence on national economy. This sector is very much susceptible to climate change. This study is emphasized on Terai region (situated at an altitude of 60m to 300m) of Nepal which investigates the impacts of climate variability on various stages of cropping (paddy) periods such as transplant, maturity and harvest. The climate variables namely temperature and rainfall are used to explore the relationship between climate and paddy yields based on 30 years of historical observed data. Observed monthly rainfall and temperature data are collected from the department of hydrology and meteorology, and paddy yield data are collected from the Ministry of Agricultural Development. A correlation analysis will be carried out between the backward difference filtered climate parameters and the backward difference filtered rice yield. This study will also analyze average monthly and annual rainfall, and, min, max and mean temperature during the period of 1981-2010 based on 15 synoptic stations of Nepal. This study will visualize rainfall and temperature distribution over Nepal, and also evaluate the effect of change in rainfall and temperature in the paddy yield. While evaluating the impacts of climate on crop yield, this study will not consider the impact of irrigation in crop yield. The major results, climate distribution and its local/regional impacts on agriculture, could be utilized by planners, decision makers, and climate and agricultural scientists as a basis in formulating/implementing future plans, policies and projects.

  16. Solar Wind Interaction with Comet 67P/C-G: Impact of Corotating Interaction Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edberg, N. J. T.; Eriksson, A. I.; Odelstad, E.; Vigren, E.; Burch, J. L.; Carr, C.; Cupido, E.; Glassmeier, K. H.; Goldstein, R.; Halekas, J. S.; Pierre, H.; Lebreton, J. P.; Mandt, K.; Mokashi, P.; Nemeth, Z.; Nilsson, H.; Ramstad, R.; Richter, I.; Stenberg Wieser, G.

    2015-12-01

    We present observations from the Rosetta Plasma Consortium (RPC) of impacts of corotating interaction regions (CIRs) on comet 67P. Corotating interaction regions build up in the solar wind when slow flow is caught up by faster flow. A pressure pulse is then formed, which propagates outward in interplanetary space and impacts on e.g. planets, moons and comet in its path. In the interval October to December 2014 four such CIRs are traced from Earth (using ACE) to Mars (using Mars Express and MAVEN) and to comet 67P (using Rosetta). As the CIRs impact on the cometary coma the ionospheric low-energy plasma density in the ionosphere increases by roughly one order of magnitude in the first three events. The increased density is possibly caused by sweeping up of more upstream plasma in combination with increased impact ionization and charge exchange processes. Increased fluxes of ~100 eV electrons are observed concurrently and the magnetic field strength typically doubles as more interplanetary magnetic field piles up around of the comet.

  17. Economic impact of accelerated cleanup on regions surrounding the U.S. DOE's major nuclear weapons sites.

    PubMed

    Greenberg, M; Solitare, L; Frisch, M; Lowrie, K

    1999-08-01

    The regional economic impacts of the U.S. Department of Energy's accelerated environmental cleanup plan are estimated for the major nuclear weapons sites in Colorado, Idaho, New Mexico, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Washington. The analysis shows that the impact falls heavily on the three relatively rural regions around the Savannah River (SC), Hanford (WA), and Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (ID) sites. A less aggressive phase-down of environmental management funds and separate funds to invest in education and infrastructure in the regions helps buffer the impacts on jobs, personal income, and gross regional product. Policy options open to the federal and state and local governments are discussed.

  18. Assessments of regional climate change and its impacts in Northern Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omstedt, Anders; von Storch, Hans; Reckermann, Marcus; Quante, Markus

    2015-04-01

    Regional climate change assessments are urgently needed to complement the big picture with regional results and scenarios of higher resolution and with relevance for local decision makers and stakeholders. A new type of assessment report originated in the original BACC report of 2008 (BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea region) which has served as role model for other assessments published or in preparation. It represents an approach to assessing and making available current knowledge on regional climate change and its regional impacts on the physical, biogeochemical and biological environment (ecosystems, socio-economic sphere). Reports of this type which are available or underway are the original BACC book (2008), the second BACC book (2015), the climate report for the greater Hamburg area (2011), and the NOSCCA report (North Sea Climate Change Assessment) which is expected to be published in 2016. The assessments are produced by teams of scientists from the region, led by lead authors who recruit experts from relevant topics to contribute. The process is not externally funded and completely based on published scientific evidence, and not biased by political or economic interest groups. The BACC-type reports aim to bring together consolidated knowledge that has broad consensus in the scientific community, but also acknowledging issues for which contradicting opinions are found in the literature, so that no consensus can be reached ("consensus on dissensus"). An international steering committee is responsible for overlooking the process, and all manuscripts are anonymously peer-reviewed by independent international experts. An outstanding outreach aspect of these reports is the close collaboration with regional stakeholders (for the BACC reports: HELCOM, the intergovernmental Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission and the major regional science-policy interface in the Baltic Sea region; for the Hamburg climate report: the Hamburg city

  19. Analyzing the impact of ambient temperature indicators on transformer life in different regions of Chinese mainland.

    PubMed

    Bai, Cui-fen; Gao, Wen-Sheng; Liu, Tong

    2013-01-01

    Regression analysis is applied to quantitatively analyze the impact of different ambient temperature characteristics on the transformer life at different locations of Chinese mainland. 200 typical locations in Chinese mainland are selected for the study. They are specially divided into six regions so that the subsequent analysis can be done in a regional context. For each region, the local historical ambient temperature and load data are provided as inputs variables of the life consumption model in IEEE Std. C57.91-1995 to estimate the transformer life at every location. Five ambient temperature indicators related to the transformer life are involved into the partial least squares regression to describe their impact on the transformer life. According to a contribution measurement criterion of partial least squares regression, three indicators are conclusively found to be the most important factors influencing the transformer life, and an explicit expression is provided to describe the relationship between the indicators and the transformer life for every region. The analysis result is applicable to the area where the temperature characteristics are similar to Chinese mainland, and the expressions obtained can be applied to the other locations that are not included in this paper if these three indicators are known.

  20. Climate change trend in the tropical and Caribbean regions and its hydrological impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Setegn, S. G.; Melesse, A. M.

    2010-12-01

    Climate variability and climate change pose significant economic and environmental risks worldwide. There are limited studies in the Caribbean islands in terms of trends in climate change and its impact on hydrology and environmental problems. The study focused in Caribbean watersheds of Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Jamaica and south Florida. Drought, heavy rainfall, high winds, and flooding cause losses to the agricultural and natural resources sectors locally in Florida and in the Caribbean islands. Projected changes in precipitation and temperature in the regions for three seasons (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) were analyzed using outputs from fifteen global climate models (GCMs). Comparison of projected changes in precipitation and temperature across different models for the three future seasons was carried out to get an indication of the consistency of the projected changes in the region. Different downscaling methods were used to downscale the large scale GCM into watershed level climate data. We interpret the different aspects of the hydrological response to imply that changes in runoff and other hydrological variables in the region could be significant, even though the GCMs do not agree on the direction of the change. This implies that climate change may well impact on the surface and ground water resources of the region.

  1. Impact of disaster-related mortality on gross domestic product in the WHO African Region

    PubMed Central

    Kirigia, Joses M; Sambo, Luis G; Aldis, William; Mwabu, Germano M

    2004-01-01

    Background Disaster-related mortality is a growing public health concern in the African Region. These deaths are hypothesized to have a significantly negative effect on per capita gross domestic product (GDP). The objective of this study was to estimate the loss in GDP attributable to natural and technological disaster-related mortality in the WHO African Region. Methods The impact of disaster-related mortality on GDP was estimated using double-log econometric model and cross-sectional data on various Member States in the WHO African Region. The analysis was based on 45 of the 46 countries in the Region. The data was obtained from various UNDP and World Bank publications. Results The coefficients for capital (K), educational enrolment (EN), life expectancy (LE) and exports (X) had a positive sign; while imports (M) and disaster mortality (DS) were found to impact negatively on GDP. The above-mentioned explanatory variables were found to have a statistically significant effect on GDP at 5% level in a t-distribution test. Disaster mortality of a single person was found to reduce GDP by US$0.01828. Conclusions We have demonstrated that disaster-related mortality has a significant negative effect on GDP. Thus, as policy-makers strive to increase GDP through capital investment, export promotion and increased educational enrolment, they should always keep in mind that investments made in the strengthening of national capacity to mitigate the effects of national disasters expeditiously and effectively will yield significant economic returns. PMID:15113453

  2. Arctic Oscillation impact on thermal regime of the Baltic region Eastern part

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gecaite, Indre; Pogoreltsev, Aleksandr; Ugryumov, Aleksandr

    2016-04-01

    Statistical estimations of Arctic Oscillation (AO) impact on air temperature regime in the Eastern part of Baltic region are presented. The region is characterized by high inter-annual and inter-seasonal variabilities. It is important to note that in the region of global warming extremely low winter temperatures can be observed on the European territory of Russia. AO is one of large-scale global structures of atmospheric circulation closely associated with weather variability in Northern Europe. AO anomalies occur in the upper atmosphere (stratosphere) and only then transferred to tropospheric lower layers. The anomalies can be preserved during long period up to two months, so they can be predictors in long-range weather forecast. In turn, changes in stratospheric polar vortex and sudden stratospheric warmings can be related to the geomagnetic activity. Perhaps, the geomagnetic activity influences the meridional temperature gradient and then changes in the structure of the stratospheric zonal wind. In turn, the changes have an impact on the tropospheric circulation. The stratosphere-troposphere connection occurs during winter months. Therefore, the paper presents the analysis of extremely cold winter anomalies in the Eastern part of Baltic Sea region. At the same time, we considered atmospheric circulation peculiarities related to AO phase change. The analyzable time interval covers 1951-2014.

  3. CLIMATE IMPACTS ON REGIONAL WATER. A REPORT OF THE NEW ENGLAND REGIONAL ASSESSMENT GROUP FOR THE US GLOBAL CHANGE RESEACH PROGRAM

    EPA Science Inventory

    The New England Region is not considered limited by water availability. While the region was impacted by a serious drought during the mid-1960s, overall, images of a vast network of lush green forests and inviting waterways, extensive shorelines, and a landscape of mountain strea...

  4. Predictions of the Impacts of Future Marcellus Shale Natural Gas Development on Regional Ozone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roy, A.; Adams, P. J.; Robinson, A. L.

    2012-12-01

    Recent discovery of shale gas reserves, combined with advances in drilling and fracturing technology, are leading to extensive development of natural gas in the Marcellus Shale formation which underlies parts of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio and New York. To assess the impacts of this development on regional air quality, we have constructed a VOC, NOx and PM2.5 emissions inventory for the development and production of gas from the Marcellus formation. In 2020, we estimate that Marcellus activities will contribute about 12% to both regional NOx and VOC emissions. These numbers were obtained as a best estimate (mean) from a distribution obtained through several Monte Carlo runs. We speciated these emissions for use in a 3-D chemical transport model (PMCAMx) to simulate their effects on regional ozone. The projected Marcellus emissions for 2020 were added to a 2007 base inventory developed from the NEI. We have performed multiple simulations to investigate the effects of Marcellus development on regional air quality. The model predicts significant ozone changes in the Marcellus region with a uniform increase of few ppb across a wide region of the Northeast. Sensitivity studies are being performed to investigate the effects of emissions controls and sensitivity to VOC and NOx emissions.

  5. Impacts of irrigation on regional water resources in the coupled climate system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Puma, M. J.; Krakauer, N.; Cook, B.; Gentine, P.; Nazarenko, L.; Kelley, M.

    2015-12-01

    Widespread irrigation alters regional climate through changes to the energy and water budgets of the land surface. Within general circulation models (GCMs), simulation studies have revealed regionally significant changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. These irrigation impacts are especially notable in key water stressed regions of Asia, western North America, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East. Here we investigate the feedbacks of irrigation with a focus on regional water availability in model simulations. We use two GCM configurations, with and without irrigation, to understand irrigation-induced changes in regional water balances. Importantly, while most other GCM irrigation analyses have focused on monthly changes, we explore changes in daily climate variables. Our simulations reveal shifts in runoff that vary dramatically by region. For example, California's Central Valley experiences substantial shifts in daily runoff, while runoff is relatively insensitive to irrigation in the Ganges-Brahmaputra basin. It is important to understand such feedbacks, as we face a future with great uncertainty in water-resource availability.

  6. Territorial Impact Assessment for European regions: A methodological proposal and an application to EU transport policy.

    PubMed

    Camagni, Roberto

    2009-11-01

    The need to engage European research and institutions in the new field of Territorial Impact Assessment, from both a methodological and a procedural perspective, was stated some years ago by the European Spatial Development Perspective (ESDP). The necessity of multidimensional evaluation of the likely impact of policies and programmes on the territory - understood as the dimension on which all the other relevant dimensions (economic, social, environmental and cultural) converge and with which they integrate - emerged as a natural consequence of the importance of spatial aspects in the future development of the Union and of widespread preoccupations about certain emerging spatial trends. A proposal for a TIA methodology combining logical consistency vis-à-vis the Union's present institutional and policy guidelines with operational viability is being developed and applied to Trans-European Networks policy of the EU. Territorial impact is linked to an innovative definition of the objective of "territorial cohesion" of the Treaties in terms of territorial efficiency, quality and identity. Utilising sectoral impact studies developed inside the ESPON programme and developing territorial indicators for impact, vulnerability and desirability (territorial utility functions), a multicriteria model (TEQUILA) is implemented on priority projects as defined by the Commission, and results mapped and described for the 1360 NUTS-3 regions of the Union.

  7. Regional Climate Change Scenarios for Mexico and Potential Impacts on Rainfed Maize Agriculture.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conde, C.; Estrada, F.; Martínez, B.; Sánchez, O.; Monterroso, A.; Rosales, G.; Gay, C.

    2010-03-01

    Regional climate change scenarios that were used to assess the potential impacts on different sectors in Mexico are presented, with an application of those scenarios for the agricultural sector. The results of that research were delivered to the Mexican government for the development of the Mexican Fourth National Communication, which will be presented to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). To generate regional climate change scenarios the models and criteria suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fourth Assessment Report (4AR) were applied. Those criteria are: Consistency with global projections, Physical plausibility, Applicability in impact assessments, Representative of the potential range of changes in the future, Accessibility for the users of impacts assessments. The regional scenarios that were generated focus mainly on the applicability and accessibility criteria. A kick-off meeting was held at the beginning of the research work for the Fourth National Communication, to ensure that those criteria were fulfilled. Specifically, a set of climate change scenarios was generated using the outputs for temperature and precipitation of three General Circulation Models (GCMs): ECHAM5, HADGEM1 y GFDL CM2.0, for the horizons 2030 and 2050, and for the emission scenarios A1B, A2, B2 y B1. Those scenarios can be found in our web page in a low spatial resolution (2.5 º x 2.5º), and with high resolution (5’ x 5’). To assess the potential impacts on rainfed maize agriculture, the changes of the suitability of different regions in the country were evaluated, considering maize temperature and precipitation requirements at its different stages of development. Four categories of suitability (high, moderated, marginal, and no suitable) were characterized for current and future climatic conditions. Using the A2 and B2 emission scenarios, the three GCMs and the horizon 2050, results showed that around 67% of

  8. Quantification of Road Network Vulnerability and Traffic Impacts to Regional Landslide Hazards.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Postance, Benjamin; Hillier, John; Dixon, Neil; Dijkstra, Tom

    2015-04-01

    Slope instability represents a prevalent hazard to transport networks. In the UK regional road networks are frequently disrupted by multiple slope failures triggered during intense precipitation events; primarily due to a degree of regional homogeneity of slope materials, geomorphology and weather conditions. It is of interest to examine how different locations and combinations of slope failure impact road networks, particularly in the context of projected climate change and a 40% increase in UK road demand by 2040. In this study an extensive number (>50 000) of multiple failure event scenarios are simulated within a dynamic micro simulation to assess traffic impacts during peak flow (7 - 10 AM). Possible failure locations are selected within the county of Gloucestershire (3150 km2) using historic failure sites and British Geological Survey GeoSure data. Initial investigations employ a multiple linear regression analyses to consider the severity of traffic impacts, as measured by time, in respect of spatial and topographical network characteristics including connectivity, density and capacity in proximity to failure sites; the network distance between disruptions in multiple failure scenarios is used to consider the effects of spatial clustering. The UK Department of Transport road travel demand and UKCP09 weather projection data to 2080 provide a suitable basis for traffic simulations and probabilistic slope stability assessments. Future work will thus focus on the development of a catastrophe risk model to simulate traffic impacts under various narratives of future travel demand and slope instability under climatic change. The results of this investigation shall contribute to the understanding of road network vulnerabilities and traffic impacts from climate driven slope hazards.

  9. Polygonal impact craters in Argyre region, Mars: Implications for geology and cratering mechanics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Öhman, T.; Aittola, M.; Kostama, V.-P.; Raitala, J.; Korteniemi, J.

    2008-10-01

    Impact craters are not always circular; sometimes their rims are composed of several straight segments. Such polygonal impact craters (PICs) are controlled by pre-existing target structures, mainly faults or other similar planes of weakness. In the Argyre region, Mars, PICs comprise ˜17% of the total impact crater population (>7 km in diameter), and PICs are relatively more common in older geologic units. Their formation is mainly controlled by radial fractures induced by the Argyre and Ladon impact basins, and to a lesser extent by the basin-concentric fractures. Also basin-induced conjugate shear fractures may play a role. Unlike the PICs, ridges and graben in the Argyre region are mostly controlled by Tharsis-induced tectonism, with the ridges being concentric and graben radial to Tharsis. Therefore, the PICs primarily reflect an old impact basin-centered tectonic pattern, whereas Tharsis-centered tectonism responsible for the graben and the ridges has only minor influence on the PIC rim orientations. According to current models of PIC formation, complex PICs should form through a different mechanism than simple PICs, leading to different orientations of straight rim segments. However, when simple and complex PICs from same areas are studied, no statistically significant difference can be observed. Hence, in addition to enhanced excavation parallel to the strike of fractures (simple craters) and slumping along the fracture planes (complex craters), we propose a third mechanism involving thrusting along the fracture planes. This model is applicable to both simple and small complex craters in targets with some dominating orientations of structural weakness.

  10. The impacts of land use, radiative forcing, and biological changes on regional climate in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dairaku, K.; Pielke, R. A., Sr.

    2013-12-01

    Because regional responses of surface hydrological and biogeochemical changes are particularly complex, it is necessary to develop assessment tools for regional scale adaptation to climate. We developed a dynamical downscaling method using the regional climate model (NIED-RAMS) over Japan. The NIED-RAMS model includes a plant model that considers biological processes, the General Energy and Mass Transfer Model (GEMTM) which adds spatial resolution to accurately assess critical interactions within the regional climate system for vulnerability assessments to climate change. We digitalized a potential vegetation map that formerly existed only on paper into Geographic Information System data. It quantified information on the reduction of green spaces and the expansion of urban and agricultural areas in Japan. We conducted regional climate sensitivity experiments of land use and land cover (LULC) change, radiative forcing, and biological effects by using the NIED-RAMS with horizontal grid spacing of 20 km. We investigated regional climate responses in Japan for three experimental scenarios: 1. land use and land cover is changed from current to potential vegetation; 2. radiative forcing is changed from 1 x CO2 to 2 x CO2; and 3. biological CO2 partial pressures in plants are doubled. The experiments show good accuracy in reproducing the surface air temperature and precipitation. The experiments indicate the distinct change of hydrological cycles in various aspects due to anthropogenic LULC change, radiative forcing, and biological effects. The relative impacts of those changes are discussed and compared. Acknowledgments This study was conducted as part of the research subject "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Hazard Assessed Using Regional Climate Scenarios in the Tokyo Region' (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention; PI: Koji Dairaku) of Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA), and was supported by the

  11. Potential U. S. regional and state impacts of international carbon taxes. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1992-05-01

    An international tax on fossil fuels would have a highly uneven economic impact on regions within the United States with Alaska and coal-producing and coal-using states suffering the greatest job losses, according to a study commissioned by the Commerce Department. By contrast, economic benefits would accrue to New England and the Pacific Southwest. The study, conducted by Data Resources, Inc., was part of a departmental program to determine the economic effects over the 25 to 30 years of measures that would be designed to stabilize and then cut carbon dioxide emissions by 20 percent and thereby reduce the chances of global warming. A previous research paper indicated that a massive tax would be required and that it would have a considerable adverse impact on the United States as a whole by the year 2020; this study indicates how that impact would be distributed among regions and states. The study compared the probable economic performance of the nation (the 'base case') to the likely outcome after the taxes were imposed.

  12. Impact of Interacting Functional Variants in COMT on Regional Gray Matter Volume in Human Brain

    PubMed Central

    Honea, Robyn; Verchinski, Beth A.; Pezawas, Lukas; Kolachana, Bhaskar S.; Callicott, Joseph H.; Mattay, Venkata S.; Weinberger, Daniel R.; Meyer-Lindenberg, Andreas

    2009-01-01

    Background Functional variants in the catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) gene have been shown to impact cognitive function, cortical physiology and risk for schizophrenia. A recent study showed that previously reported effects of the functional val158met SNP (rs4680) on brain function are modified by other functional SNPs and haplotypes in the gene, though it was unknown if these effects are also seen in brain structure. Methods We used voxel-based morphometry to investigate the impact of multiple functional variants in COMT on gray matter volume in a large group of 151 healthy volunteers from the CBDB/NIMH Genetic Study of Schizophrenia. Results We found that the previously described rs4680 val risk variant affects hippocampal and dorsolateral prefrontal (DLPFC) gray matter volume. In addition, we found that this SNP interacts with a variant in the P2 promoter region (rs2097603) in predicting changes in hippocampal gray matter volume consistent with a nonlinear effect of extracellular dopamine. Conclusions We report evidence that interacting functional variants in COMT affect gray matter regional volume in hippocampus and DLPFC, providing further in vivo validation of the biological impact of complex genetic variation in COMT on neural systems relevant for the pathophysiology of schizophrenia and extending observations of nonlinear dependence of prefrontal neurons on extracellular dopamine to the domain of human brain structure. PMID:19071221

  13. Black Carbon Emissions and Impacts on the South American Glacial Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molina, L. T.; Gallardo, L.; Schmitt, C. G.

    2015-12-01

    Black carbon is one of the key short-lived climate pollutants, which is a topic of growing interest for near-term mitigation of climate change and air quality improvement. In this presentation we will examine the emissions and impact of black carbon and co-pollutants on the South American glacial region and describe some recent measurements associated with the PISAC (Pollution and its Impacts on the South American Cryosphere) Initiative. The Andes is the longest continental mountain range in the world, extending about 7000 km along western South America through seven countries with complex topography and covering several climate zones, diversity of ecosystems and communities. Air pollution associated with biomass burning and urban emissions affects extensive areas in the region and is a serious public health concern. Scientific evidence indicates that the Andean cryosphere is changing rapidly as snow fields and glaciers generally recede, leading to changes in stream flow and water quality along the Andes. The challenge is to identify the principal causes of the observed changes so that action can be taken to mitigate this negative trend. Despite the paucity of systematic observations along the Andes, a few modeling and observational studies have indicated the presence of black carbon in the high Andes, with potentially significant impact on the Andean cryosphere.

  14. Elucidating hydraulic fracturing impacts on groundwater quality using a regional geospatial statistical modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Burton, Taylour G; Rifai, Hanadi S; Hildenbrand, Zacariah L; Carlton, Doug D; Fontenot, Brian E; Schug, Kevin A

    2016-03-01

    Hydraulic fracturing operations have been viewed as the cause of certain environmental issues including groundwater contamination. The potential for hydraulic fracturing to induce contaminant pathways in groundwater is not well understood since gas wells are completed while isolating the water table and the gas-bearing reservoirs lay thousands of feet below the water table. Recent studies have attributed ground water contamination to poor well construction and leaks in the wellbore annulus due to ruptured wellbore casings. In this paper, a geospatial model of the Barnett Shale region was created using ArcGIS. The model was used for spatial analysis of groundwater quality data in order to determine if regional variations in groundwater quality, as indicated by various groundwater constituent concentrations, may be associated with the presence of hydraulically fractured gas wells in the region. The Barnett Shale reservoir pressure, completions data, and fracture treatment data were evaluated as predictors of groundwater quality change. Results indicated that elevated concentrations of certain groundwater constituents are likely related to natural gas production in the study area and that beryllium, in this formation, could be used as an indicator variable for evaluating fracturing impacts on regional groundwater quality. Results also indicated that gas well density and formation pressures correlate to change in regional water quality whereas proximity to gas wells, by itself, does not. The results also provided indirect evidence supporting the possibility that micro annular fissures serve as a pathway transporting fluids and chemicals from the fractured wellbore to the overlying groundwater aquifers. PMID:26745299

  15. Elucidating hydraulic fracturing impacts on groundwater quality using a regional geospatial statistical modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Burton, Taylour G; Rifai, Hanadi S; Hildenbrand, Zacariah L; Carlton, Doug D; Fontenot, Brian E; Schug, Kevin A

    2016-03-01

    Hydraulic fracturing operations have been viewed as the cause of certain environmental issues including groundwater contamination. The potential for hydraulic fracturing to induce contaminant pathways in groundwater is not well understood since gas wells are completed while isolating the water table and the gas-bearing reservoirs lay thousands of feet below the water table. Recent studies have attributed ground water contamination to poor well construction and leaks in the wellbore annulus due to ruptured wellbore casings. In this paper, a geospatial model of the Barnett Shale region was created using ArcGIS. The model was used for spatial analysis of groundwater quality data in order to determine if regional variations in groundwater quality, as indicated by various groundwater constituent concentrations, may be associated with the presence of hydraulically fractured gas wells in the region. The Barnett Shale reservoir pressure, completions data, and fracture treatment data were evaluated as predictors of groundwater quality change. Results indicated that elevated concentrations of certain groundwater constituents are likely related to natural gas production in the study area and that beryllium, in this formation, could be used as an indicator variable for evaluating fracturing impacts on regional groundwater quality. Results also indicated that gas well density and formation pressures correlate to change in regional water quality whereas proximity to gas wells, by itself, does not. The results also provided indirect evidence supporting the possibility that micro annular fissures serve as a pathway transporting fluids and chemicals from the fractured wellbore to the overlying groundwater aquifers.

  16. Progress and prospects of climate change impacts on hydrology in the arid region of northwest China.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yaning; Li, Zhi; Fan, Yuting; Wang, Huaijun; Deng, Haijun

    2015-05-01

    The arid region of Northwest China, located in the central Asia, responds sensitively to global climate change. Based on the newest research results, this paper analyzes the impacts of climate change on hydrology and the water cycle in the arid region of Northwest China. The analysis results show that: (1) In the northwest arid region, temperature and precipitation experienced "sharply" increasing in the past 50 years. The precipitation trend changed in 1987, and since then has been in a state of high volatility, during the 21st century, the increasing rate of precipitation was diminished. Temperature experienced a "sharply" increase in 1997; however, this sharp increasing trend has turned to an apparent hiatus since the 21st century. The dramatic rise in winter temperatures in the northwest arid region is an important reason for the rise in the average annual temperature, and substantial increases in extreme winter minimum temperature play an important role in the rising average winter temperature; (2) There was a significant turning point in the change of pan evaporation in the northwest arid area in 1993, i.e., in which a significant decline reversed to a significant upward trend. In the 21st century, the negative effects of global warming and increasing levels of evaporation on the ecology of the northwest arid region have been highlighted; (3) Glacier change has a significant impact on hydrology in the northwest arid area, and glacier inflection points have appeared in some rivers. The melting water supply of the Tarim River Basin possesses a large portion of water supplies (about 50%). In the future, the amount of surface water will probably remain at a high state of fluctuation. PMID:25682220

  17. Progress and prospects of climate change impacts on hydrology in the arid region of northwest China.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yaning; Li, Zhi; Fan, Yuting; Wang, Huaijun; Deng, Haijun

    2015-05-01

    The arid region of Northwest China, located in the central Asia, responds sensitively to global climate change. Based on the newest research results, this paper analyzes the impacts of climate change on hydrology and the water cycle in the arid region of Northwest China. The analysis results show that: (1) In the northwest arid region, temperature and precipitation experienced "sharply" increasing in the past 50 years. The precipitation trend changed in 1987, and since then has been in a state of high volatility, during the 21st century, the increasing rate of precipitation was diminished. Temperature experienced a "sharply" increase in 1997; however, this sharp increasing trend has turned to an apparent hiatus since the 21st century. The dramatic rise in winter temperatures in the northwest arid region is an important reason for the rise in the average annual temperature, and substantial increases in extreme winter minimum temperature play an important role in the rising average winter temperature; (2) There was a significant turning point in the change of pan evaporation in the northwest arid area in 1993, i.e., in which a significant decline reversed to a significant upward trend. In the 21st century, the negative effects of global warming and increasing levels of evaporation on the ecology of the northwest arid region have been highlighted; (3) Glacier change has a significant impact on hydrology in the northwest arid area, and glacier inflection points have appeared in some rivers. The melting water supply of the Tarim River Basin possesses a large portion of water supplies (about 50%). In the future, the amount of surface water will probably remain at a high state of fluctuation.

  18. Numerical investigation for the impact of CO2 geologic sequestration on regional groundwater flow

    SciTech Connect

    Yamamoto, H.; Zhang, K.; Karasaki, K.; Marui, A.; Uehara, H.; Nishikawa, N.

    2009-04-15

    Large-scale storage of carbon dioxide in saline aquifers may cause considerable pressure perturbation and brine migration in deep rock formations, which may have a significant influence on the regional groundwater system. With the help of parallel computing techniques, we conducted a comprehensive, large-scale numerical simulation of CO{sub 2} geologic storage that predicts not only CO{sub 2} migration, but also its impact on regional groundwater flow. As a case study, a hypothetical industrial-scale CO{sub 2} injection in Tokyo Bay, which is surrounded by the most heavily industrialized area in Japan, was considered, and the impact of CO{sub 2} injection on near-surface aquifers was investigated, assuming relatively high seal-layer permeability (higher than 10 microdarcy). A regional hydrogeological model with an area of about 60 km x 70 km around Tokyo Bay was discretized into about 10 million gridblocks. To solve the high-resolution model efficiently, we used a parallelized multiphase flow simulator TOUGH2-MP/ECO2N on a world-class high performance supercomputer in Japan, the Earth Simulator. In this simulation, CO{sub 2} was injected into a storage aquifer at about 1 km depth under Tokyo Bay from 10 wells, at a total rate of 10 million tons/year for 100 years. Through the model, we can examine regional groundwater pressure buildup and groundwater migration to the land surface. The results suggest that even if containment of CO{sub 2} plume is ensured, pressure buildup on the order of a few bars can occur in the shallow confined aquifers over extensive regions, including urban inlands.

  19. Improving plot- and regional-scale crop models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, F.; Rötter, R.

    2013-12-01

    Many studies on global climate report that climate variability is increasing with more frequent and intense extreme events1. There are quite large uncertainties from both the plot- and regional-scale models in simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes on crop development, growth and productivity2,3. One key to reducing the uncertainties is better exploitation of experimental data to eliminate crop model deficiencies and develop better algorithms that more adequately capture the impacts of extreme events, such as high temperature and drought, on crop performance4,5. In the present study, in a first step, the inter-annual variability in wheat yield and climate from 1971 to 2012 in Finland was investigated. Using statistical approaches the impacts of climate variability and extremes on wheat growth and productivity were quantified. In a second step, a plot-scale model, WOFOST6, and a regional-scale crop model, MCWLA7, were calibrated and validated, and applied to simulate wheat growth and yield variability from 1971-2012. Next, the estimated impacts of high temperature stress, cold damage, and drought stress on crop growth and productivity based on the statistical approaches, and on crop simulation models WOFOST and MCWLA were compared. Then, the impact mechanisms of climate extremes on crop growth and productivity in the WOFOST model and MCWLA model were identified, and subsequently, the various algorithm and impact functions were fitted against the long-term crop trial data. Finally, the impact mechanisms, algorithms and functions in WOFOST model and MCWLA model were improved to better simulate the impacts of climate variability and extremes, particularly high temperature stress, cold damage and drought stress for location-specific and large area climate impact assessments. Our studies provide a good example of how to improve, in parallel, the plot- and regional-scale models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes, as needed for

  20. An analysis of the impacts of global climate and emissions changes on regional tropospheric ozone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    John, Kuruvilla; Crist, Kevin C.; Carmichael, Gregory R.

    1994-01-01

    Many of the synergistic impacts resulting from future changes in emissions as well as changes in ambient temperature, moisture, and UV flux have not been quantified. A three-dimensional regional-scale photo-chemical model (STEM-2) is used in this study to evaluate these perturbations to trace gas cycles over the eastern half of the United States of America. The model was successfully used to simulate a regional-scale ozone episode (base case - June 1984) and four perturbations scenarios - viz., perturbed emissions, temperature, water vapor column, and incoming UV flux cases, and a future scenario (for the year 2034). The impact of these perturbation scenarios on the distribution of ozone and other major pollutants such as SO2 and sulfates were analyzed in detail. The spatial distribution and the concentration of ozone at the surface increased by about 5-15 percent for most cases except for the perturbed water vapor case. The regional scale surface ozone concentration distribution for the year 2034 (future scenario) showed an increase of non-attainment areas. The rural areas of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Georgia showed the largest change in the surface ozone field for the futuristic scenario when compared to the base case.

  1. Modeling the impact of topography on seismic amplification at regional scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shafique, Muhammad; Anggraeni, Dita; Bakker, Wim; van der Meijde, Mark

    2010-05-01

    The intensity of earthquake triggered ground shaking is influenced by the characteristics of earthquake source, medium and site effects. These site effects are often not included in the regional ground shaking models, especially the local topography. It is being experimentally proved and noticed during many previous earthquakes, that topography has significant impact on variation of ground shaking and subsequent building damages. Majority of the previous studies investigating the topographic impact on seismic response are limited to synthetic environments or isolated hills. This study deals with exploring the impact of topography on variation of ground shaking caused by the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, at a regional scale. With the proliferation of remote sensing technologies, digital elevation models (DEMs) are freely and readily available at medium resolution, and with global cover. DEMs derived from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), with 30m resolution, and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), with 90m resolution, can therefore be utilized to model and predict the impact of topography on seismic response, also quickly after a seismic event. The topography of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake affected area is derived from ASTER and SRTM DEMs and analyzed using a 3D spectral finite element code (SPECFEM3D). SPECFEM3D takes into account the seismic source parameters, medium and topography to generate shake maps and earthquake simulations. The ground shaking simulations and peak ground acceleration maps were generated initially assuming the homogenous ground surface and later by including the topography to assess the role of topography in seismic amplification. Topography derived from ASTER and SRTM DEMs were simulated separately to predict the impact of DEM resolution on computed ground shaking simulations and maps. The preliminary result from the model simulations shows that seismic waves were dispersed at topographic

  2. Impact of external industrial sources on the regional and local air quality of Mexico Megacity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Almanza, V. H.; Molina, L. T.; Li, G.; Fast, J.; Sosa, G.

    2013-10-01

    The air quality of megacities can be influenced by external emissions sources on both global and regional scale, and at the same time their outflow emissions can exert an important impact to the surrounding environment. The present study evaluates an SO2 peak observed on 24 March 2006 at the suburban supersite T1 and ambient air quality monitoring stations located in the north region of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) during MILAGRO campaign. We found that this peak could be related to an important episodic emission event from Tizayuca region, northeast of the MCMA. Back trajectories analyses suggest that the emission event started in the early morning at 04:00 LST and lasted for about 9 h. The estimated emission rate is noticeably high, about 2 kg s-1. This finding suggests the possibility of "overlooked" emission sources in this region that could influence the air quality of the MCMA. This further motivated us to study the cement plants, including those in the State of Hidalgo and in the State of Mexico, and we found that they can contribute in the NE region of the basin (about 41.7%), at the suburban supersite T1 (41.23%) and at some monitoring stations their contribution can be even higher than from the Tula Industrial Complex. The contribution of Tula Industrial Complex to regional ozone levels is estimated. The model suggests low contribution to the MCMA (1 ppb to 4 ppb) and slightly higher at the suburban T1 (6 ppb) and rural T2 (5 ppb) supersites. However, the contribution could be as high as 10 ppb in the upper northwest region of the basin and in the southwest and south-southeast regions of State of Hidalgo. In addition, a first estimate of the potential contribution from flaring activities to regional ozone levels is presented. Emission rates are estimated with a CFD combustion model. Results suggest that up to 30% of the total regional ozone from TIC could be related to flaring activities. Finally, the influence in SO2 levels from technological

  3. Impacts of Climate Change on Grain Sorghum Yield in the Ogallala Aquifer Region, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paul, G.; Anandhi, A.; Prasad, P.; Staggenborg, S. A.; Gowda, P. H.; Rice, C. W.

    2011-12-01

    The Ogallala aquifer region consists of 232 counties spread over 8 states of United States is facing declining water levels and deteriorating water quality which in turn affects the crop production in these counties. Coupled with the water stress, the changing climatic conditions also has adverse effects on crop production. The objectives of this study was to generate the future scenarios of grain sorghum production in the Ogallala region for plausible future climates. Three RCM's participating in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), used in this study are Canadian RCM (CRCM), Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) and the Hadley Regional Model (HRM3). The RCMs were nested within the AOGCMs for the current period 1971-2000 and for the future period 2041-2070 for A2 emission scenario. Grain sorghum yield were simulated across the study region using the CERES-Sorghum model program available in the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) crop simulation model suite. Daily data on rainfall, solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperature generated from the RCM were used as meteorological inputs in the current analysis. Grain sorghum hybrid 'Pioneer 8333' planting date and density were set at 5 June and 160,000 plants per hectare respectively. Simulation results show a decrease in the yield of grain sorghum for A2 emission scenario without considering effects of elevated carbon dioxide and changes in genetics. Results of the study provide critical information needed to help decision/policy makers to device long-term strategies to cope with impacts of climate change and variability on water use and crop production for the Ogallala aquifer region.

  4. Fugitives from the Hungaria region: Close encounters and impacts with terrestrial planets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galiazzo, M. A.; Bazsó, Á.; Dvorak, R.

    2013-08-01

    Hungaria asteroids, whose orbits occupy the region in element space between 1.78impacts of escaped Hungarias with the terrestrial planets. Out of about 8000 known Hungarias we selected 200 objects which are on the edge of the group. We integrated their orbits over 100 million years in a simplified model of the planetary system (Mars to Saturn) subject only to gravitational forces. We picked out a sample of 11 objects (each with 50 clones) with large variations in semi-major axis and restarted the numerical integration in a gravitational model including the planets from Venus to Saturn. Due to close encounters, some of them achieve high inclinations and eccentricities which, in turn, lead to relatively high velocity impacts on Venus, Earth, and Mars. We statistically analyze all close encounters and impacts with the terrestrial planets and determine the encounter and impact velocities of these fictitious Hungarias.

  5. Regional impacts of climate change on water resources quantity and quality indicators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mimikou, M. A.; Baltas, E.; Varanou, E.; Pantazis, K.

    2000-06-01

    The aim of this paper is to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources (surface runoff) and on water quality. Two GCM-based climate change scenarios are considered: transient (HadCM2) and equilibrium (UKHI). A conceptual, physically based hydrological model (WBUDG) is applied on a catchment in central Greece, simulating the effect of the two climate scenarios on average monthly runoff. A newly developed in the stream model (R-Qual) is applied in order to simulate water quality downstream of a point source under current and climatically changed conditions. Simulated parameters include monthly concentrations of BOD, DO and NH 4+. Both scenarios suggest increase of temperature and decrease of precipitation in the study region. Those changes result in a significant decrease of mean monthly runoff for almost all months with a considerable negative impact on summer drought. Moreover, quality simulations under future climatic conditions entail significant water quality impairments because of decreased stream flows.

  6. Holocene land-use change impacts on global and regional climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singarayer, J. S.; Valdes, P.

    2013-12-01

    Arguably the largest change to human society in prehistory was the Neolithic (agricultural) revolution approximately 10 000 years ago. Large-scale conversion of natural environments to land suitable for cultivation (mainly through deforestation and irrigation) occurred gradually over thousands of years, increasing considerably in the last 2000 years. In recent reconstructions of Holocene/Neolithic land-use change it has been estimated that cropland occupied roughly 1 per cent of global ice-free land area by AD 1000 (e.g. Klein Goldewijk et al., 2010), with regions such as Europe likely to be much higher than this (Kaplan et al., 2009). Previous studies have estimated the impacts of this prehistoric land conversion on the carbon cycle (e.g. Kaplan et al, 2010). In this study we examine the impacts of the biogeophysical factors on Holocene climate change and climate variability. We have performed two sets of simulations with global coupled ocean-atmosphere-vegetation model, HadCM3. The first set is of equilibrium simulations at 1-kyr intervals through the Holocene without any prescribed change to land-use (i.e. no anthropogenic influence). The second set of simulations prescribes increased anthropogenic conversion to agricultural land throughout the Holocene. We assess the impact of regional changes to albedo, roughness length, and hydrological cycle on regional and global climate, and we compare overall Holocene trends to recent estimates of global temperature trends using palaeodata to examine the scale of anthropogenic influence on long-term climate change, with particular focus on the last 2000 years.

  7. Evaluating Aggregate Terrestrial Impacts of Road Construction Projects for Advanced Regional Mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thorne, James H.; Girvetz, Evan H.; McCoy, Michael C.

    2009-05-01

    This study presents a GIS-based database framework used to assess aggregate terrestrial habitat impacts from multiple highway construction projects in California, USA. Transportation planners need such impact assessment tools to effectively address additive biological mitigation obligations. Such assessments can reduce costly delays due to protracted environmental review. This project incorporated the best available statewide natural resource data into early project planning and preliminary environmental assessments for single and multiple highway construction projects, and provides an assessment of the 10-year state-wide mitigation obligations for the California Department of Transportation. Incorporation of these assessments will facilitate early and more strategic identification of mitigation opportunities, for single-project and regional mitigation efforts. The data architecture format uses eight spatial scales: six nested watersheds, counties, and transportation planning districts, which were intersected. This resulted in 8058 map planning units statewide, which were used to summarize all subsequent analyses. Range maps and georeferenced locations of federally and state-listed plants and animals and a 55-class landcover map were spatially intersected with the planning units and the buffered spatial footprint of 967 funded projects. Projected impacts were summarized and output to the database. Queries written in the database can sum expected impacts and provide summaries by individual construction project, or by watershed, county, transportation district or highway. The data architecture allows easy incorporation of new information and results in a tool usable without GIS by a wide variety of agency biologists and planners. The data architecture format would be useful for other types of regional planning.

  8. Considerations about gust wind thresholds related to social impact: study of different regions in Catalonia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barberia, Laura; Amaro, Jéssica; Aran, Montserrat; Llasat, Maria del Carmen

    2016-04-01

    Severe weather events can cause several damages on a territory and its population, affecting urban infrastructure and housing, among others. In particular, wind is one of the most important phenomena which cause remarkable economic losses. Since 2008, different studies conducted by the Social Impact Research Group, in the frame of HYMEX project, determined that requests related to damage claims which are received in Meteorological Services are a good proxy indicator of social impact. However, the strong wind studies took into account a unique threshold, which proved to be insufficient. It was found that it was necessary to define a threshold for each area, according to its vulnerability and exposure. Therefore, the aim of this study is to define, for each county in Catalonia, thresholds of gust wind speed for which a remarkable social impact is observed. To accomplish this, the database of requests received in the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) between 2011 and 2015 has been used. For each request, the most representative automatic weather stations are associated. Statistical treatments of the gust wind data recorded by these stations have been carried out in order to determine which values are related to social impact. As an example, one of the first results shows that in a populated area like Barcelona, the average gust is approximately 70 km/h. On the contrary, in other less populated counties and usually more exposed to strong winds, the mean is over 85 km/h. Besides, the relation between gusts and requests has been analyzed to detect significant slope changes. In general, it has been detected an increase of requests at certain gust wind values. These results, which vary depending on the region's vulnerability and exposure, could be used to establish new thresholds for Civil Protection alarms. Therefore, a higher accuracy by region will be reached.

  9. Evaluating aggregate terrestrial impacts of road construction projects for advanced regional mitigation.

    PubMed

    Thorne, James H; Girvetz, Evan H; McCoy, Michael C

    2009-05-01

    This study presents a GIS-based database framework used to assess aggregate terrestrial habitat impacts from multiple highway construction projects in California, USA. Transportation planners need such impact assessment tools to effectively address additive biological mitigation obligations. Such assessments can reduce costly delays due to protracted environmental review. This project incorporated the best available statewide natural resource data into early project planning and preliminary environmental assessments for single and multiple highway construction projects, and provides an assessment of the 10-year state-wide mitigation obligations for the California Department of Transportation. Incorporation of these assessments will facilitate early and more strategic identification of mitigation opportunities, for single-project and regional mitigation efforts. The data architecture format uses eight spatial scales: six nested watersheds, counties, and transportation planning districts, which were intersected. This resulted in 8058 map planning units statewide, which were used to summarize all subsequent analyses. Range maps and georeferenced locations of federally and state-listed plants and animals and a 55-class landcover map were spatially intersected with the planning units and the buffered spatial footprint of 967 funded projects. Projected impacts were summarized and output to the database. Queries written in the database can sum expected impacts and provide summaries by individual construction project, or by watershed, county, transportation district or highway. The data architecture allows easy incorporation of new information and results in a tool usable without GIS by a wide variety of agency biologists and planners. The data architecture format would be useful for other types of regional planning.

  10. Regional assessment of Climate change impacts in the Mediterranean: the CIRCE project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iglesias, A.

    2011-12-01

    The CIRCE project has developed for the first time an assessment of the climate change impacts in the Mediterranean area. The objectives of the project are: to predict and to quantify physical impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean area; to evaluate the consequences of climate change for the society and the economy of the populations located in the Mediterranean area; to develop an integrated approach to understand combined effects of climate change; and to identify adaptation and mitigation strategies in collaboration with regional stakeholders. The CIRCE Project, coordinated by the Instituto Nazionale di Geofisca e Vulcanologia, started on 1st April 2007 and ended in a policy conference in Rome on June 2011. CIRCE involves 64 partners from Europe, Middle East and North Africa working together to evaluate the best strategies of adaptation to the climate change in the Mediterranean basin. CIRCE wants to understand and to explain how climate will change in the Mediterranean area bringing together the natural sciences community and social community in a new integrated and comprehensive way. The project has investigated how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how the radiative properties of the atmosphere and the radiative fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle. Recent observed modifications in the climate variables and detected trends will be compared. The economic and social consequences of climate change are evaluated by analysing direct impacts on migration, tourism and energy markets together with indirect impacts on the economic system. CIRCE has produced results about the consequences on agriculture, forests and ecosystems, human health and air quality. The variability of extreme events in the future scenario and their impacts is also assessed. A rigorous common framework, including a set of quantitative indicators developed specifically for the Mediterranean environment was be developed

  11. Impacts of crop growth dynamics on soil quality at the regional scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gobin, Anne

    2014-05-01

    Agricultural land use and in particular crop growth dynamics can greatly affect soil quality. Both the amount of soil lost from erosion by water and soil organic matter are key indicators for soil quality. The aim was to develop a modelling framework for quantifying the impacts of crop growth dynamics on soil quality at the regional scale with test case Flanders. A framework for modelling the impacts of crop growth on soil erosion and soil organic matter was developed by coupling the dynamic crop cover model REGCROP (Gobin, 2010) to the PESERA soil erosion model (Kirkby et al., 2009) and to the RothC carbon model (Coleman and Jenkinson, 1999). All three models are process-based, spatially distributed and intended as a regional diagnostic tool. A geo-database was constructed covering 10 years of crop rotation in Flanders using the IACS parcel registration (Integrated Administration and Control System). Crop allometric models were developed from variety trials to calculate crop residues for common crops in Flanders and subsequently derive stable organic matter fluxes to the soil. Results indicate that crop growth dynamics and crop rotations influence soil quality for a very large percentage. soil erosion mainly occurs in the southern part of Flanders, where silty to loamy soils and a hilly topography are responsible for soil loss rates of up to 40 t/ha. Parcels under maize, sugar beet and potatoes are most vulnerable to soil erosion. Crop residues of grain maize and winter wheat followed by catch crops contribute most to the total carbon sequestered in agricultural soils. For the same rotations carbon sequestration is highest on clay soils and lowest on sandy soils. This implies that agricultural policies that impact on agricultural land management influence soil quality for a large percentage. The coupled REGCROP-PESERA-ROTHC model allows for quantifying the impact of seasonal and year-to-year crop growth dynamics on soil quality. When coupled to a multi-annual crop

  12. Regional analysis of drought and heat impacts on forests: current and future science directions.

    PubMed

    Law, Beverly E

    2014-12-01

    Accurate assessments of forest response to current and future climate and human actions are needed at regional scales. Predicting future impacts on forests will require improved analysis of species-level adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability to mortality. Land system models can be enhanced by creating trait-based groupings of species that better represent climate sensitivity, such as risk of hydraulic failure from drought. This emphasizes the need for more coordinated in situ and remote sensing observations to track changes in ecosystem function, and to improve model inputs, spatio-temporal diagnosis, and predictions of future conditions, including implications of actions to mitigate climate change.

  13. The impact of H2S emissions on future geothermal power generation - The Geysers region, California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leibowitz, L. P.

    1977-01-01

    The future potential for geothermal power generation in the Geysers region of California is as much as 10 times the current 502 MW(e) capacity. However, environmental factors such as H2S emissions and institutional considerations may play the primary role in determining the rate and ultimate level of development. In this paper a scenario of future geothermal generation capacity and H2S emissions in the Geysers region is presented. Problem areas associated with H2S emissions, H2S abatement processes, plant operations, and government agency resources are described. The impact of H2S emissions on future development and the views of effected organizations are discussed. Potential actions needed to remove these constraints are summarized.

  14. Climate Impacts of Ozone and Sulfate Air Pollution from Specific Emissions Sectors and Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Unger, N.; Koch, D. M.; Shindell, D. T.; Streets, D. G.

    2006-12-01

    The secondary air pollutants ozone (O3) and sulfate aerosol are generated by human activities and affect the Earth's climate system. The global mean radiative forcings of these short-lived species depend on the location of the precursor gas emissions, which has so far prevented their incorporation into climate-motivated policy agreements. O3 and sulfate aerosol are strongly coupled through tropospheric photochemistry and yet air quality control efforts consider each species separately. Previous modeling work to assess climate impacts of O3 has focused on individual precursors, such as nitrogen oxides, even though policy action would target a particular sector. We use the G-PUCCINI atmospheric composition-climate model to isolate the O3 and sulfate direct radiative forcing impacts of 6 specific emissions sectors (industry, transport, power, domestic biofuel, domestic fossil fuel and biomass burning) from 7 geographic regions (North America, Europe, South Asia, East Asia, North Africa and the Middle East, Central and South Africa and South America) for the near future 2030 atmosphere. The goal of the study is to identify specific source sectors and regions that present the most effective opportunities to mitigate global warming. At 2030, the industry and power sectors dominate the sulfate forcing across all regions, with East Asia, South Asia and North Africa and Middle East contributing the largest sulfate forcings (-100 to 120 mWm-2). The transport sector represents an important O3 forcing from all regions ranging from 5 mWm-2 (Europe) to 12 mWm-2 (East Asia). Domestic biofuel O3 forcing is important for the East Asia (13 mWm-2), South Asia (7 mWm-2) and Central and South Africa (10 mWm-2) regions. Biomass burning contributes large O3 forcings for the Central and South Africa (15 mWm-2) and South America (11 mWm-2) regions. In addition, the power sector O3 forcings from East Asia (14 mWm-2) and South Asia (8 mWm-2) are also substantial. Considering the sum of the O

  15. Assessing the health equity impacts of regional land-use plan making: An equity focussed health impact assessment of alternative patterns of development of the Whitsunday Hinterland and Mackay Regional Plan, Australia (Short report)

    SciTech Connect

    Gunning, Colleen; Harris, Patrick; Mallett, John

    2011-07-15

    Health service and partners completed an equity focussed health impact assessment to influence the consideration of health and equity within regional land-use planning in Queensland, Australia. This project demonstrated how an equity oriented assessment matrix can assist in testing regional planning scenarios. It is hoped that this HIA will contribute to the emerging interest in ensuring that potential differential health impacts continue to be considered as part of land-use planning processes.

  16. An observational and modeling study of the regional impacts of climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horton, Radley M.

    Climate variability has large impacts on humans and their agricultural systems. Farmers are at the center of this agricultural network, but it is often agricultural planners---regional planners, extension agents, commodity groups and cooperatives---that translate climate information for users. Global climate models (GCMs) are a leading tool for understanding and predicting climate and climate change. Armed with climate projections and forecasts, agricultural planners adapt their decision-making to optimize outcomes. This thesis explores what GCMs can, and cannot, tell us about climate variability and change at regional scales. The question is important, since high-quality regional climate projections could assist farmers and regional planners in key management decisions, contributing to better agricultural outcomes. To answer these questions, climate variability and its regional impacts are explored in observations and models for the current and future climate. The goals are to identify impacts of observed variability, assess model simulation of variability, and explore how climate variability and its impacts may change under enhanced greenhouse warming. Chapter One explores how well Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) atmospheric models, forced by historical sea surface temperatures (SST), simulate climatology and large-scale features during the exceptionally strong 1997--1999 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Reasonable performance in this 'proof of concept' test is considered a minimum requirement for further study of variability in models. All model versions produce appropriate local changes with ENSO, indicating that with correct ocean temperatures these versions are capable of simulating the large-scale effects of ENSO around the globe. A high vertical resolution model (VHR) provides the best simulation. Evidence is also presented that SST anomalies outside the tropical Pacific may play a key role in generating remote teleconnections even

  17. Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.

    2014-12-01

    Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes

  18. A Preliminary Synthesis of Modeled Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Regional Ozone Concentrations

    SciTech Connect

    Weaver, C. P.; Liang, X. Z.; Zhu, J.; Adams, P. J.; Amar, Praveen; Avise, J.; Caughey, M.; Chen, J.; Cohen, R. C.; Cooter, E.; Dawson, J. P.; Gilliam, R.; Gilliland, A.; Goldstein, Allen H.; Grambsch, A.; Grano, D.; Guenther, Alex; Gustafson, William I.; Harley, R. A.; He, Shan; Hemming, B.; Hogrefe, C.; Huang, H. -C.; Hunt, Sherri W.; Jacob, D.; Kinney, Patrick L.; Kunkel, K.; Lamarque, J. F.; Lamb, Brian K.; Larkin, N.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Liao, Kuo-Jen; Lin, J.; Lynn, B. H.; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Mass, Clifford S.; KcKenzie, D.; Mickley, L. J.; O'Neil, S.; Nolte, C.; Pandis, S. N.; Racherla, P. N.; Rosenzweig, C.; Russell, Armistead G.; Salathe, E.; Steiner, A. L.; Tagaris, Efthimios; Tao, Z.; Tonse, S.; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Williams, A.; Winner, D. A.; Woo, J.-H; Wu, S.; Wuebbles, D.J.

    2009-12-01

    This paper provides a synthesis of results that have emerged from recent modeling studies of the potential impacts of global climate change (c. 2050) on U.S. regional ozone concentrations. This research has been carried out under the auspices of an ongoing U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) assessment effort to increase scientific understanding of the multiple complex interactions between climate, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, and air quality, the ultimate goal of which is to enhance the ability of air quality managers to consider global change in their decisions through improved characterization of the potential impacts of global change on air quality, including O3, particulate matter (PM), and mercury (Hg). The results discussed here are interim, representing the first phase of the EPA assessment whose aim was to consider the effects of climate change alone, without accompanying changes in anthropogenic emissions of precursor pollutants. Across all of the modeling experiments carried out by the different groups, simulated global climate change causes increases in summertime O3 concentrations over some substantial regions of the country. These regional patterns of change, however, are not, in general, the same across the different simulations. These differences result from variations in the simulated patterns of mean changes in key meteorological drivers, such as temperature and surface insolation. Some regions, such as the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, show greater agreement across groups, whereas others, such as the West Coast and the Southeast, show wider disagreements. How isoprene nitrate chemistry is represented in the different modeling systems is an additional critical factor in the simulated O3 response to climate change.

  19. Impact of regional meteorology on ozone levels in the Lake Tahoe Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rayne, Sandra; Gertler, Alan; Zielinska, Barbara; Bytnerowicz, Andrzej; Burley, Joel; Kaplan, Michael

    2016-07-01

    The Lake Tahoe Basin is located on the California-Nevada border and occasionally experiences elevated levels of ozone (O3) exceeding the California Air Resources Board ambient air quality standard (8-h average). Previous studies indicate that both the local generation and long-range transport from out-of-basin sources are important in contributing to O3 exceedances, but little is known about the impact of regional meteorology on O3 source regions. To develop a better understanding of the factors affecting O3 levels and sources in the Lake Tahoe Basin, a comprehensive field study was performed in the summer of 2010. Included in this effort was a meteorological analysis addressing potential regional meteorological influences leading to periods of elevated levels of O3. Three approaches were used to conduct the analysis: (1) regional atmospheric pressure difference (i.e., the Washoe Zephyr) to access potential transport, (2) back trajectory modeling using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to determine where the air masses originated and, (3) composite soundings to evaluate in-Basin atmospheric influences. These analyses indicate the Washoe Zephyr did not strongly impact O3 levels; however, higher O3 levels were found to correspond with both a more southerly wind component and a dip in dew point temperature around 400 hPa. The results also indicate that if transport does occur, it is more likely to come from the San Joaquin Valley and move to the southern part of the Basin, rather than originating in the large cities to the west (i.e., Sacramento and San Francisco).

  20. Impacts of urbanization on nitrogen deposition in the Pearl River Delta region, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, X.; Fan, Q.

    2015-12-01

    The Pearl River Delta (PRD) region is one of the most advanced economic districts in China, which has experienced remarkable economic development and urbanization in the past two decades. Accompanied with the rapid economy development and urbanization, the PRD region encountered both severe nitrogen pollution and deposition. In this study, the characteristics of nitrogen deposition and impacts of urbanization on nitrogen deposition in the PRD region were investigated by combining the methods of field study and numerical model. According to the field measurements, the total dry and wet atmospheric deposition of reactive N at a urban site (SYSU) was up to 55.0 kg ha-1 yr-1 in 2010, slightly lower than the results at a rural forest site (DHS) (57.6 kg ha-1 yr-1). Wet deposition was the main form of the total deposition (64-76%). Organic nitrogen (ON) was found to be dominant in the total N deposition, with a contribution of 53% at DHS and 42% at SYSU. NH4+-N and NO3--N accounted for a similar portion of the total N deposition (23-29%). Atmospheric nitrogen deposition was further simulated by using the improved WRF-Chem model. The simulated N deposition flux was high in the north of PRD (i.e., Guangzhou, Foshan, Zhaoqing) and relative low in the east (Huizhou) and south (Zhuhai), with an average N deposition flux of about 24 kg ha-1 yr-1 for the whole PRD. The distribution of N dry deposition was mainly controlled by the concentration of reactive N compounds and precipitation governed the wet deposition distribution. The modeling results also indicate that the PRD area is the source region in which the emissions exceed the deposition while the outside area of the PRD is the receptor region in which the deposition exceeds emissions. The impact of emission change and land use change due to urbanization was also investigated using the WRF-Chem model. The results showed that atmospheric N deposition exhibits a direct response to emission change while the land use change

  1. Assessing the impact of regional rainfall variability on rapid pesticide leaching potential.

    PubMed

    McGrath, Gavan; Hinz, Christoph; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2010-04-01

    The timing and magnitude of rainfall events are known to be dominant controls on pesticide migration into streams and groundwater, by triggering rapid flow processes, such as preferential flow and surface runoff. A better understanding of how regional differences in rainfall impact rapid leaching risk is required in order to match the scale at which water regulation occurs. We estimated the potential amount of rapid leaching, and the frequencies of these events in a case study of the southwest of Western Australia, for one soil type and a range of linearly sorbing, first order degrading chemicals. At the regional scale, those chemicals with moderate sorption and long half lives were the most susceptible to rapid transport within a year of application. Within the region, this susceptibility varied depending upon application time and seasonality in storm patterns. Those chemicals and areas with a high potential for rapid transport on average, also experience the greatest inter-annual variability in rapid leaching, as measured by the coefficient of variation. The timing and frequencies of rapid leaching events appeared to strongly relate to an area's relative susceptibility to rapid leaching. In the study region the results also suggested that frontal rainfall dominates rapid leaching along the western and southern coasts while convective thunderstorms play a greater role in the arid east. PMID:20079952

  2. Impacts of urban and industrial development on Arctic land surface temperature in Lower Yenisei River Region.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Z.; Shiklomanov, N. I.

    2015-12-01

    Urbanization and industrial development have significant impacts on arctic climate that in turn controls settlement patterns and socio-economic processes. In this study we have analyzed the anthropogenic influences on regional land surface temperature of Lower Yenisei River Region of the Russia Arctic. The study area covers two consecutive Landsat scenes and includes three major cities: Norilsk, Igarka and Dudingka. Norilsk industrial region is the largest producer of nickel and palladium in the world, and Igarka and Dudingka are important ports for shipping. We constructed a spatio-temporal interpolated temperature model by including 1km MODIS LST, field-measured climate, Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), DEM, Landsat NDVI and Landsat Land Cover. Those fore-mentioned spatial data have various resolution and coverage in both time and space. We analyzed their relationships and created a monthly spatio-temporal interpolated surface temperature model at 1km resolution from 1980 to 2010. The temperature model then was used to examine the characteristic seasonal LST signatures, related to several representative assemblages of Arctic urban and industrial infrastructure in order to quantify anthropogenic influence on regional surface temperature.

  3. A scale-dependent blending scheme for WRFDA: impact on regional weather forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, H.; Huang, X.-Y.; Xu, D.; Liu, J.

    2014-08-01

    Due to limitation of the domain size and limited observations used in regional data assimilation and forecasting systems, regional forecasts suffer a general deficiency in effectively representing large-scale features such as those in global analyses and forecasts. In this paper, a scale-dependent blending scheme using a low-pass Raymond tangent implicit filter was implemented in the Data Assimilation system of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRFDA) to reintroduce large-scale weather features from global model analysis into the WRFDA analysis. The impact of the blending method on regional forecasts was assessed by conducting full cycle data assimilation and forecasting experiments for a 2-week-long period in September 2012. It is found that there are obvious large-scale forecast errors in the regional WRFDA system running in full cycle mode without the blending scheme. The scale-dependent blending scheme can efficiently reintroduce the large-scale information from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses, and keep small-scale information from WRF analyses. The blending scheme is shown to reduce analysis and forecasting error of wind, temperature and humidity up to 24 h compared to the full cycle experiments without blending. It is also shown to increase precipitation prediction skills in the first 6 h forecasts.

  4. A scale-dependent blending scheme for WRFDA: impact on regional weather forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, H.; Huang, X.-Y.; Xu, D.; Liu, J.

    2014-04-01

    Due to limitation of the domain size and limited observations used in regional data assimilation and forecasting systems, regional forecasts suffer a general deficiency in effectively representing large-scale features such as those in global analyses and forecasts. In this paper, a scale-dependent blending scheme using a low-pass Raymond tangent implicit filter was implemented in the Data Assimilation system of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRFDA) to re-introduce large-scale weather features from global model analysis into the WRFDA analysis. The impact of the blending method on regional forecasts was assessed by conducting full cycle data assimilation and forecasting experiments for a two-week long period in September 2012. It is found that there are obvious large-scale forecast errors in the regional WRFDA system running in full cycle mode without the blending scheme. The scale-dependent blending scheme can efficiently re-introduce the large-scale information from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses, and keep small-scale information from WRF analyses. The blending scheme is shown to reduce analysis and forecasting error of wind, temperature and humidity up to 24 h compared to the full cycle experiments without blending. It is also shown to increase precipitation prediction skills in the first 6 h forecasts.

  5. Assessing Impact of Aerosol Intercontinental Transport on Regional Air Quality and Climate: What Satellites Can Help

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yu, Hongbin

    2011-01-01

    Mounting evidence for intercontinental transport of aerosols suggests that aerosols from a region could significantly affect climate and air quality in downwind regions and continents. Current assessment of these impacts for the most part has been based on global model simulations that show large variability. The aerosol intercontinental transport and its influence on air quality and climate involve many processes at local, regional, and intercontinental scales. There is a pressing need to establish modeling systems that bridge the wide range of scales. The modeling systems need to be evaluated and constrained by observations, including satellite measurements. Columnar loadings of dust and combustion aerosols can be derived from the MODIS and MISR measurements of total aerosol optical depth and particle size and shape information. Characteristic transport heights of dust and combustion aerosols can be determined from the CALIPSO lidar and AIRS measurements. CALIPSO liar and OMI UV technique also have a unique capability of detecting aerosols above clouds, which could offer some insights into aerosol lofting processes and the importance of above-cloud transport pathway. In this presentation, I will discuss our efforts of integrating these satellite measurements and models to assess the significance of intercontinental transport of dust and combustion aerosols on regional air quality and climate.

  6. Dose discrepancies in the buildup region and their impact on dose calculations for IMRT fields

    SciTech Connect

    Hsu, Shu-Hui; Moran, Jean M.; Chen Yu; Kulasekere, Ravi; Roberson, Peter L.

    2010-05-15

    Purpose: Dose accuracy in the buildup region for radiotherapy treatment planning suffers from challenges in both measurement and calculation. This study investigates the dosimetry in the buildup region at normal and oblique incidences for open and IMRT fields and assesses the quality of the treatment planning calculations. Methods: This study was divided into three parts. First, percent depth doses and profiles (for 5x5, 10x10, 20x20, and 30x30 cm{sup 2} field sizes at 0 deg., 45 deg., and 70 deg. incidences) were measured in the buildup region in Solid Water using an Attix parallel plate chamber and Kodak XV film, respectively. Second, the parameters in the empirical contamination (EC) term of the convolution/superposition (CVSP) calculation algorithm were fitted based on open field measurements. Finally, seven segmental head-and-neck IMRT fields were measured on a flat phantom geometry and compared to calculations using {gamma} and dose-gradient compensation (C) indices to evaluate the impact of residual discrepancies and to assess the adequacy of the contamination term for IMRT fields. Results: Local deviations between measurements and calculations for open fields were within 1% and 4% in the buildup region for normal and oblique incidences, respectively. The C index with 5%/1 mm criteria for IMRT fields ranged from 89% to 99% and from 96% to 98% at 2 mm and 10 cm depths, respectively. The quality of agreement in the buildup region for open and IMRT fields is comparable to that in nonbuildup regions. Conclusions: The added EC term in CVSP was determined to be adequate for both open and IMRT fields. Due to the dependence of calculation accuracy on (1) EC modeling, (2) internal convolution and density grid sizes, (3) implementation details in the algorithm, and (4) the accuracy of measurements used for treatment planning system commissioning, the authors recommend an evaluation of the accuracy of near-surface dose calculations as a part of treatment planning

  7. Dose discrepancies in the buildup region and their impact on dose calculations for IMRT fields

    PubMed Central

    Hsu, Shu-Hui; Moran, Jean M.; Chen, Yu; Kulasekere, Ravi; Roberson, Peter L.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: Dose accuracy in the buildup region for radiotherapy treatment planning suffers from challenges in both measurement and calculation. This study investigates the dosimetry in the buildup region at normal and oblique incidences for open and IMRT fields and assesses the quality of the treatment planning calculations. Methods: This study was divided into three parts. First, percent depth doses and profiles (for 5×5, 10×10, 20×20, and 30×30 cm2 field sizes at 0°, 45°, and 70° incidences) were measured in the buildup region in Solid Water using an Attix parallel plate chamber and Kodak XV film, respectively. Second, the parameters in the empirical contamination (EC) term of the convolution∕superposition (CVSP) calculation algorithm were fitted based on open field measurements. Finally, seven segmental head-and-neck IMRT fields were measured on a flat phantom geometry and compared to calculations using γ and dose-gradient compensation (C) indices to evaluate the impact of residual discrepancies and to assess the adequacy of the contamination term for IMRT fields. Results: Local deviations between measurements and calculations for open fields were within 1% and 4% in the buildup region for normal and oblique incidences, respectively. The C index with 5%∕1 mm criteria for IMRT fields ranged from 89% to 99% and from 96% to 98% at 2 mm and 10 cm depths, respectively. The quality of agreement in the buildup region for open and IMRT fields is comparable to that in nonbuildup regions. Conclusions: The added EC term in CVSP was determined to be adequate for both open and IMRT fields. Due to the dependence of calculation accuracy on (1) EC modeling, (2) internal convolution and density grid sizes, (3) implementation details in the algorithm, and (4) the accuracy of measurements used for treatment planning system commissioning, the authors recommend an evaluation of the accuracy of near-surface dose calculations as a part of treatment planning commissioning

  8. The Climaware project: Impacts of climate change on water resources management - regional strategies and European view

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thirel, Guillaume; D'Agostino, Daniela; Démerliac, Stéphane; Dorchies, David; Flörke, Martina; Jay-Allemand, Maxime; Jost, Claudine; Kehr, Katrin; Perrin, Charles; Scardigno, Alessandra; Schneider, Christof; Theobald, Stephan; Träbing, Klaus

    2014-05-01

    Climate projections produced with CMIP5 and applied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its fifth assessment report indicate that changes in precipitation and temperature are expected to occur throughout Europe in the 21th century, with a likely decrease of water availability in many regions. Besides, water demand is also expected to increase, in link with these expected climate modifications, but also due to socio-economic and demographic changes. In this respect, the use of future freshwater resources may not be sustainable from the current water management perspective. Therefore adaptation strategies will most likely be needed to cope with these evolutions. In this context, the main objective of the ClimAware project (2010-2013 - www.uni-kassel.de/fb14/wasserbau/CLIMAWARE/, a project implemented within the IWRM-NET Funding Initiative) was to analyse the impacts of climate change (CC) on freshwater resources at the continental and regional scales and to identify efficient adaptation strategies to improve water management for various socio-economic sectors. This should contribute to a more effective implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and its instruments (river basin management plans, programmes of measures). The project developed integrated measures for improved freshwater management under CC constraints. More specifically, the objectives of the ClimAware project were to: • elaborate quantitative projections of changes in river flows and consequences such as flood frequency, drought occurrence and sectorial water uses. • analyse the effect of CC on the hydromorphological reference conditions of rivers and therefore the definition of "good status". • define management rules/strategies concerning dam management and irrigation practices on different time perspectives. • investigate uncertainties in climate model - scenario combinations. The research approach considered both European and regional perspectives, to get

  9. Potential Impacts of Legacy and Current Uranium Mining in the Grand Canyon Region of Northern Arizona

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bills, D. J.

    2012-12-01

    The Grand Canyon region in Northern Arizona contains high grade uranium resources hosted in geologic features called breccia pipes that represent an important component of the Nation's energy resource base. The exploration and extraction of uranium ore from these deposits poses potential risks to humans and biota of the Grand Canyon watershed. These issues led the Secretary of the Interior to a Record of Decision in January 2012 to withdraw over a million acres of federal lands in the region from mineral entry for the next 20 years. Dissolved uranium and other major ions and trace elements occur naturally in surface water and in groundwater as a result of precipitation infiltrating from the surface to perched water-bearing zones in contact with mineralized breccia pipes or in contact with sandstones with high trace element content, and to underlying regional aquifers. Discharge from these water-bearing zones and aquifers occur as seeps and springs throughout the region and provide valuable habitat and water sources for plants and animals. Runoff and groundwater flow in the Grand Canyon region is also a component of the water supply for over 25 million people in the Southwestern United States. Soil and sediment in the region can naturally contain as much a 5.6 micrograms per gram of uranium and naturally occurring dissolved uranium in groundwater is about 5.0 μg/L or less, except in proximity to uranium ore bodies where it tends to be greater. The current discharge of dissolved uranium from the Grand Canyon region to Lake Mead have concentrations of 4.0 μg/L or less resulting in a total annual load of uranium delivered to Lake Mead of about 60 tons per year. Increased amounts of radioactive materials and trace metals on the surface and in groundwater are related to uranium mining activity in the watershed in the 1970s and 1980s. Monitoring and data collection from 2010 to 2012 confirm this legacy impact in some parts of the Grand Canyon watershed, but have yet to

  10. Scale dependence of the simulated impact of Amazonian deforestation on regional climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pitman, A. J.; Lorenz, R.

    2016-09-01

    Using a global climate model, Amazonian deforestation experiments are conducted perturbing 1, 9, 25, 81 and 121 grid points, each with 5 ensemble members. All experiments show warming and drying over Amazonia. The impact of deforestation on temperature, averaged either over the affected area or a wider area, decreases by a factor of two as the scale of the perturbation increases from 1 to 121 grid points. This is associated with changes in the surface energy balance and consequential impacts on the atmosphere above the regions deforested. For precipitation, as the scale of deforestation increases from 9 to 121 grid points, the reduction in rainfall over the perturbed area decreases from ˜1.5 to ˜1 mm d-1. However, if the surrounding area is considered and large deforestation perturbations made, compensatory increases in precipitation occur such that there is little net change. This is largely associated with changes in horizontal advection of moisture. Disagreements between climate model experiments on how Amazonian deforestation affects precipitation and temperature are, at least in part, due to the spatial scale of the region deforested, differences in the areas used to calculate averages and whether areas surrounding deforestation are included in the overall averages.

  11. The Impact of Urbanization on the Regional Aeolian Dynamics of an Arid Coastal Dunefield

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Alexander; Jackson, Derek; Cooper, Andrew

    2016-04-01

    The anthropogenic impact on the geomorphology of many landscapes are inextricably connected but are often neglected due to the difficulty in making a direct link between the quasi natural and human processes that impact the environment. This research focuses on the Maspalomas dunefield, located on the southern coast of Gran Canaria, in the Canary Island Archipelago. The tourism industry in Maspalomas has led to intensive urbanization since the early 1960's over an elevated alluvial terrace that extends into the dunefield. Urbanization has had a substantial impact on both the regional airflow conditions and the geomorphological development of this transverse dune system. As a result airflow and sediment has been redirected in response to the large scale construction efforts. In situ data was collected during field campaigns using high resolution three-dimensional anemometry to identify the various modifications within the dunefield relative to incipient regional airflow conditions. The goal is to analyse the flow conditions near the urbanized terrace in relation to areas that are located away from the influence of the buildings and to verify numerical modelling results. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modelling is used in order to expand the areal extent of analysis by providing an understanding of relevant flow dynamics (e.g. flow velocity, directionality, turbulence, shear stresses, etc.) at the mesoscale. An integrative three dimensional model for CFD simulations was created to address the impact of both the urban area (i.e. hotels, commercial centers, and residential communities) as well as the dune terrain on regional flow conditions. Early modelling results show that there is significant flow modification around the urban terrace with streamline compression, acceleration, and deflection of flow on the windward side of the development. Consequently downwind of the terrace there is an area of highly turbulent flow conditions and well developed separation and

  12. Impacts of the surface conditions uncertainties in the Canadian Regional Ensemble Prediction System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lavaysse, C.; Carrera, M. L.; Belair, S.; Charron, M.; Yau, P. M.; Frenette, R.; Gagnon, N.

    2010-12-01

    The aim of this study is to quantify the impacts of surface condition uncertainties and the various surface parameters on the atmosphere of the Canadian Regional Ensemble Prediction System (REPS). In this study, the Canadian version of the ISBA land-surface scheme has been coupled to Environment Canada's Numerical Weather Prediction model (GEM) within the REPS. For twenty summer days in 2009, stochastic perturbations have been generated in 18 experiments. Each experiment corresponds to twenty simulations differing by the perturbations at the initial time of one or several surface parameters (e.g., vegetation fraction, leaf area index, sea-ice fraction) or prognostic variables (e.g., soil moisture, soil temperature at different layers). To better isolate these impacts, atmospheric perturbations are not added and all members of the REPS are driven by the same initial atmospheric conditions and large-scale forcing. The impact of these perturbations has been quantified especially for 2-m temperature, 10-m wind speed, and precipitation up to 48-h lead time. Spatial variability and diurnal evolution of these sensitivities over the North American continent will be discussed.

  13. Environmental impact assessment of mountain tourism in developing regions: A study in Ladakh, Indian Himalaya

    SciTech Connect

    Geneletti, Davide; Dawa, Dorje

    2009-07-15

    Mountain tourism in developing countries is becoming a growing environmental concern due to extreme seasonality, lack of suitable infrastructures and planning, and interference with fragile ecosystems and protected areas. This paper presents a study devoted to assess the adverse environmental impacts of tourism, and in particular of trekking-related activities, in Ladakh, Indian Himalaya. The proposed approach is based on the use of Geographical Information System (GIS) modeling and remote sensing imageries to cope with the lack of data that affect the region. First, stressors associated with trekking, and environmental receptors potentially affected were identified. Subsequently, a baseline study on stressors (trail use, waste dumping, camping, pack animal grazing and off-road driving) and receptors (soil, water, wildlife, vegetation) was conducted through field work, data collection, and data processing supported by GIS. Finally, impacts were modeled by considering the intensity of the stressors, and the vulnerability and the value of the receptors. The results were spatially aggregated into watershed units, and combined to generate composite impact maps. The study concluded that the most affected watersheds are located in the central and southeastern part of Ladakh, along some of the most visited trails and within the Hemis and the Tsokar Tsomoriri National parks. The main objective of the study was to understand patterns of tourism-induced environmental degradation, so as to support mitigation interventions, as well as the development of suitable tourism policies.

  14. Statistical downscaling of regional climate scenarios for the French Alps : Impacts on snow cover

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rousselot, M.; Durand, Y.; Giraud, G.; Mérindol, L.; Déqué, M.; Sanchez, E.; Pagé, C.; Hasan, A.

    2010-12-01

    Mountain areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Owing to the complexity of mountain terrain, climate research at scales relevant for impacts studies and decisive for stakeholders is challenging. A possible way to bridge the gap between these fine scales and those of the general circulation models (GCMs) consists of combining high-resolution simulations of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to statistical downscaling methods. The present work is based on such an approach. It aims at investigating the impacts of climate change on snow cover in the French Alps for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under several IPCC hypotheses. An analogue method based on high resolution atmospheric fields from various RCMs and climate reanalyses is used to simulate local climate scenarios. These scenarios, which provide meteorological parameters relevant for snowpack evolution, subsequently feed the CROCUS snow model. In these simulations, various sources of uncertainties are thus considered (several greenhouse gases emission scenarios and RCMs). Results are obtained for different regions of the French Alps at various altitudes. For all scenarios, temperature increase is relatively uniform over the Alps. This regional warming is larger than that generally modeled at the global scale (IPCC, 2007), and particularly strong in summer. Annual precipitation amounts seem to decrease, mainly as a result of decreasing precipitation trends in summer and fall. As a result of these climatic evolutions, there is a general decrease of the mean winter snow depth and seasonal snow duration for all massifs. Winter snow depths are particularly reduced in the Northern Alps. However, the impact on seasonal snow duration is more significant in the Southern and Extreme Southern Alps, since these regions are already characterized by small winter snow depths at low elevations. Reference : IPCC (2007a). Climate change 2007 : The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the

  15. Mechanisms of impact of greenhouse gases on the Earth's ozone layer in the Polar Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zadorozhny, Alexander; Dyominov, Igor

    A numerical 2-D zonally averaged interactive dynamical radiative-photochemical model of the atmosphere including aerosol physics is used to examine the impact of the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, and N2O on the future long-term changes of the Earth's ozone layer, in particular on its expected recovery after reduction of anthropogenic discharges of chlorine and bromine compounds into the atmosphere. The model allows calculating self-consistently diabatic circu-lation, temperature, gaseous composition of the troposphere and stratosphere at latitudes from the North to South Poles, as well as distribution of sulphate aerosol particles and polar strato-spheric clouds (PSCs) of types I and II. The scenarios of expected changes of the anthropogenic pollutants for the period from 1980 through 2050 are taken from Climate Change 2001. The processes, which determine the influence of anthropogenic growth of atmospheric abun-dance of the greenhouse gases on the long-term changes of the Earth's ozone layer in the Polar Regions, have been studied in details. Expected cooling of the stratosphere caused by increases of greenhouse gases, most importantly CO2, essentially influences the ozone layer by two ways: through temperature dependencies of the gas phase reaction rates and through enhancement of polar ozone depletion via increased PSC formation. The model calculations show that a weak-ness in efficiencies of all gas phase catalytic cycles of the ozone destruction due to cooling of the stratosphere is a dominant mechanism of the impact of the greenhouse gases on the ozone layer in Antarctic as well as at the lower latitudes. This mechanism leads to a significant acceleration of the ozone layer recovery here because of the greenhouse gases growth. On the contrary, the mechanism of the impact of the greenhouse gases on the ozone through PSC modification be-gins to be more effective in Arctic in comparison with the gas phase mechanism in springs after about 2020, which leads to retard

  16. Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Consumption and Peak Demand in Buildings: A Detailed Regional Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Dirks, James A.; Gorrissen, Willy J.; Hathaway, John E.; Skorski, Daniel C.; Scott, Michael J.; Pulsipher, Trenton C.; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Ying; Rice, Jennie S.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the results of numerous commercial and residential building simulations, with the purpose of examining the impact of climate change on peak and annual building energy consumption over the portion of the Eastern Interconnection (EIC) located in the United States. The climate change scenario considered (IPCC A2 scenario as downscaled from the CASCaDE data set) has changes in mean climate characteristics as well as changes in the frequency and duration of intense weather events. This investigation examines building energy demand for three annual periods representative of climate trends in the CASCaDE data set at the beginning, middle, and end of the century--2004, 2052, and 2089. Simulations were performed using the Building ENergy Demand (BEND) model which is a detailed simulation platform built around EnergyPlus. BEND was developed in collaboration with the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA), a modeling framework designed to simulate the complex interactions among climate, energy, water, and land at decision-relevant spatial scales. Over 26,000 building configurations of different types, sizes, vintages, and, characteristics which represent the population of buildings within the EIC, are modeled across the 3 EIC time zones using the future climate from 100 locations within the target region, resulting in nearly 180,000 spatially relevant simulated demand profiles for each of the 3 years. In this study, the building stock characteristics are held constant based on the 2005 building stock in order to isolate and present results that highlight the impact of the climate signal on commercial and residential energy demand. Results of this analysis compare well with other analyses at their finest level of specificity. This approach, however, provides a heretofore unprecedented level of specificity across multiple spectrums including spatial, temporal, and building characteristics. This capability enables the ability to

  17. Impact of future urban expansion on hydroclimatology in the Upper Great Lakes Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowling, L.; Cherkauer, K.; Lei, M.; Mishra, V.; Niyogi, D.; Pijanowski, B.; Ray, D.; Yang, G.

    2008-12-01

    Global land cover/land use (LCLU) is changing notably due to expansion of urban areas. The associated reduction in infiltration and runoff lag time have long been the domain of the urban hydrologist, while this landscape transformation also leads to changes in land surface heterogeneities, resulting in alterations of land-atmosphere interactions and convective processes. The integrated impacts of both impervious area and precipitation changes have not been well-represented by existing predictive tools, which often focus at disparate scales. This on-going research project provides an integrated assessment of the multi-scale interaction of urban landcover, hydrology and convective processes, in order to quantify how urbanization has altered the hydroclimatology of urban thunderstorm events, the role of the spatial arrangement and scale of urban landcover and the impact of future land use change trajectories on urban hydrology. We integrated projected LCLUC scenarios for the period of 2005-2030 from the Land Transformation Model (LTM) for the four state region of Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana and Illinois with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). Results suggest that in some cases, urban influence created a convergence zone upstream of the urban area, resulting in precipitation increases both upstream and downstream of the urban influence. Precipitation and air temperature data from the RAMS simulations were used within the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface scheme, with an updated urban component, to simulate the combined impact of urbanization on various hydrologic processes and streamflow indicators. For some watersheds, the convective influence resulted in a significant increase in peak streamflow, relative to impervious influence alone.

  18. Impact of Land Use Change over North America as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chacon, A.; Sushama, L.; Beltrami, H.

    2014-12-01

    This study investigates the biogeophysical impacts of human-induced land cover change, particularly crops, on the regional climate of North America, using the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). To this effect, two simulations are performed with CRCM5 with different land cover datasets - one corresponding to the potential vegetation (i.e. without land use change) and the other corresponding to current land use. Most of the land use changes are concentrated over the US mid-west and south-central Canada, where forests and grasses have been replaced by crops. This transformation changes the surface parameters, particularly vegetation fractional area, leaf area index, albedo, roughness length and rooting depth among other variables, in the regions where land cover change takes place in these simulations. Both simulations span the 1988-2012 period and are driven by ERA-Interim at the lateral boundaries. The sea surface temperature and sea ice cover that vary inter-annually are also taken from ERA-Interim. Results suggest that regions where forests/grasses were replaced by crops generally show increases in albedo, particularly during the spring, fall and winter seasons, with the increase in albedo being largest for winter. This higher increase in albedo during winter is due to a snow-mediated positive feedback. The increased albedo values during winter, spring and fall are reflected in the cooler 2 meter temperature obtained in the simulation with land use change, compared to that with potential vegetation. Some cooling is observed in the summer for the simulation with land use change, mostly due to the increased latent heat fluxes. Increases in precipitation are noted for these regions, but are not statistically significant.

  19. Impact of region contouring variability on image-based focal therapy evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gibson, Eli; Donaldson, Ian A.; Shah, Taimur T.; Hu, Yipeng; Ahmed, Hashim U.; Barratt, Dean C.

    2016-03-01

    Motivation: Focal therapy is an emerging low-morbidity treatment option for low-intermediate risk prostate cancer; however, challenges remain in accurately delivering treatment to specified targets and determining treatment success. Registered multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (MPMRI) acquired before and after treatment can support focal therapy evaluation and optimization; however, contouring variability, when defining the prostate, the clinical target volume (CTV) and the ablation region in images, reduces the precision of quantitative image-based focal therapy evaluation metrics. To inform the interpretation and clarify the limitations of such metrics, we investigated inter-observer contouring variability and its impact on four metrics. Methods: Pre-therapy and 2-week-post-therapy standard-of-care MPMRI were acquired from 5 focal cryotherapy patients. Two clinicians independently contoured, on each slice, the prostate (pre- and post-treatment) and the dominant index lesion CTV (pre-treatment) in the T2-weighted MRI, and the ablated region (post-treatment) in the dynamic-contrast- enhanced MRI. For each combination of clinician contours, post-treatment images were registered to pre-treatment images using a 3D biomechanical-model-based registration of prostate surfaces, and four metrics were computed: the proportion of the target tissue region that was ablated and the target:ablated region volume ratio for each of two targets (the CTV and an expanded planning target volume). Variance components analysis was used to measure the contribution of each type of contour to the variance in the therapy evaluation metrics. Conclusions: 14-23% of evaluation metric variance was attributable to contouring variability (including 6-12% from ablation region contouring); reducing this variability could improve the precision of focal therapy evaluation metrics.

  20. Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Thermodynamic Profiles on Regional Precipitation Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chou, S.-H.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Jedloved, G. J.

    2010-01-01

    In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles in clear and cloudy regions with accuracy which approaches that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe an approach to assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model using WRF-Var. Quality indicators are used to select only the highest quality temperature and moisture profiles for assimilation in clear and partly cloudy regions, and uncontaminated portions of retrievals above clouds in overcast regions. Separate error characteristics for land and water profiles are also used in the assimilation process. Assimilation results indicate that AIRS profiles produce an analysis closer to in situ observations than the background field. Forecasts from a 37-day case study period in the winter of 2007 show that AIRS profile data can lead to improvements in 6-h cumulative precipitation forecasts resulting from improved thermodynamic fields. Additionally, in a convective heavy rainfall event from February 2007, assimilation of AIRS profiles produces a more unstable boundary layer resulting in enhanced updrafts in the model. These updrafts produce a squall line and precipitation totals that more closely reflect ground-based observations than a no AIRS control forecast. The location of available high-quality AIRS profiles ahead of approaching storm systems is found to be of paramount importance to the amount of impact the observations will have on the resulting forecasts.

  1. Shifts in plant functional types have time-dependent and regionally variable impacts on dryland ecosystem water balance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bradford, John B.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Lauenroth, William K.; Burke, Ingrid C.

    2014-01-01

    5. Synthesis. This study provides a novel, regional-scale assessment of how plant functional type transitions may impact ecosystem water balance in sagebrush-dominated ecosystems of North America. Results illustrate that the ecohydrological consequences of changing vegetation depend strongly on climate and suggest that decreasing woody plant abundance may have only limited impact on evapotranspiration and water yield.

  2. Invited review: climate change impacts in polar regions: lessons from Antarctic moss bank archives.

    PubMed

    Royles, Jessica; Griffiths, Howard

    2015-03-01

    Mosses are the dominant plants in polar and boreal regions, areas which are experiencing rapid impacts of regional warming. Long-term monitoring programmes provide some records of the rate of recent climate change, but moss peat banks contain an unrivalled temporal record of past climate change on terrestrial plant Antarctic systems. We summarise the current understanding of climatic proxies and determinants of moss growth for contrasting continental and maritime Antarctic regions, as informed by 13C and 18O signals in organic material. Rates of moss accumulation are more than three times higher in the maritime Antarctic than continental Antarctica with growing season length being a critical determinant of growth rate, and high carbon isotope discrimination values reflecting optimal hydration conditions. Correlation plots of 13C and 18O values show that species (Chorisodontium aciphyllum / Polytrichum strictum) and growth form (hummock / bank) are the major determinants of measured isotope ratios. The interplay between moss growth form, photosynthetic physiology, water status and isotope composition are compared with developments of secondary proxies, such as chlorophyll fluorescence. These approaches provide a framework to consider the potential impact of climate change on terrestrial Antarctic habitats as well as having implications for future studies of temperate, boreal and Arctic peatlands. There are many urgent ecological and environmental problems in the Arctic related to mosses in a changing climate, but the geographical ranges of species and life-forms are difficult to track individually. Our goal was to translate what we have learned from the more simple systems in Antarctica, for application to Arctic habitats.

  3. Impact of currents on surface flux computations and their feedback on dynamics at regional scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olita, A.; Iermano, I.; Fazioli, L.; Ribotti, A.; Tedesco, C.; Pessini, F.; Sorgente, R.

    2015-08-01

    A twin numerical experiment was conducted in the seas around the island of Sardinia (Western Mediterranean) to assess the impact, at regional and coastal scales, of the use of relative winds (i.e., taking into account ocean surface currents) in the computation of heat and momentum fluxes through standard (Fairall et al., 2003) bulk formulas. The Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) was implemented at 3 km resolution in order to well resolve mesoscale processes, which are known to have a large influence in the dynamics of the area. Small changes (few percent points) in terms of spatially averaged fluxes correspond to quite large differences of such quantities (about 15 %) in spatial terms and in terms of kinetics (more than 20 %). As a consequence, wind power input P is also reduced by ~ 14 % on average. Quantitative validation with satellite SST suggests that such a modification of the fluxes improves the model solution especially in the western side of the domain, where mesoscale activity (as suggested by eddy kinetic energy) is stronger. Surface currents change both in their stable and fluctuating part. In particular, the path and intensity of the Algerian Current and of the Western Sardinia Current (WSC) are impacted by the modification in fluxes. Both total and eddy kinetic energies of the surface current field are reduced in the experiment where fluxes took into account the surface currents. The main dynamical correction is observed in the SW area, where the different location and strength of the eddies influence the path and intensity of the WSC. Our results suggest that, even at local scales and in temperate regions, it would be preferable to take into account such a contribution in flux computations. The modification of the original code, substantially cost-less in terms of numerical computation, improves the model response in terms of surface fluxes (SST validated) and it also likely improves the dynamics as suggested by qualitative comparison with

  4. Climate change impacts on risks of groundwater pollution by herbicides: a regional scale assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steffens, Karin; Moeys, Julien; Lindström, Bodil; Kreuger, Jenny; Lewan, Elisabet; Jarvis, Nick

    2014-05-01

    Groundwater contributes nearly half of the Swedish drinking water supply, which therefore needs to be protected both under present and future climate conditions. Pesticides are sometimes found in Swedish groundwater in concentrations exceeding the EU-drinking water limit and thus constitute a threat. The aim of this study was to assess the present and future risks of groundwater pollution at the regional scale by currently approved herbicides. We identified representative combinations of major crop types and their specific herbicide usage (product, dose and application timing) based on long-term monitoring data from two agricultural catchments in the South-West of Sweden. All these combinations were simulated with the regional version of the pesticide fate model MACRO (called MACRO-SE) for the periods 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 for a major crop production region in South West Sweden. To represent the uncertainty in future climate data, we applied a five-member ensemble based on different climate model projections downscaled with the RCA3-model (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute). In addition to the direct impacts of changes in the climate, the risks of herbicide leaching in the future will also be affected by likely changes in weed pressure and land use and management practices (e.g. changes in crop rotations and application timings). To assess the relative importance of such factors we performed a preliminary sensitivity analysis which provided us with a hierarchical structure for constructing future herbicide use scenarios for the regional scale model runs. The regional scale analysis gave average concentrations of herbicides leaching to groundwater for a large number of combinations of soils, crops and compounds. The results showed that future scenarios for herbicide use (more autumn-sown crops, more frequent multiple applications on one crop, and a shift from grassland to arable crops such as maize) imply significantly greater risks of herbicide

  5. Solar wind interaction with comet 67P: Impacts of corotating interaction regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edberg, N. J. T.; Eriksson, A. I.; Odelstad, E.; Vigren, E.; Andrews, D. J.; Johansson, F.; Burch, J. L.; Carr, C. M.; Cupido, E.; Glassmeier, K.-H.; Goldstein, R.; Halekas, J. S.; Henri, P.; Koenders, C.; Mandt, K.; Mokashi, P.; Nemeth, Z.; Nilsson, H.; Ramstad, R.; Richter, I.; Wieser, G. Stenberg

    2016-02-01

    We present observations from the Rosetta Plasma Consortium of the effects of stormy solar wind on comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. Four corotating interaction regions (CIRs), where the first event has possibly merged with a coronal mass ejection, are traced from Earth via Mars (using Mars Express and Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN mission) to comet 67P from October to December 2014. When the comet is 3.1-2.7 AU from the Sun and the neutral outgassing rate ˜1025-1026 s-1, the CIRs significantly influence the cometary plasma environment at altitudes down to 10-30 km. The ionospheric low-energy (˜5 eV) plasma density increases significantly in all events, by a factor of >2 in events 1 and 2 but less in events 3 and 4. The spacecraft potential drops below -20 V upon impact when the flux of electrons increases. The increased density is likely caused by compression of the plasma environment, increased particle impact ionization, and possibly charge exchange processes and acceleration of mass-loaded plasma back to the comet ionosphere. During all events, the fluxes of suprathermal (˜10-100 eV) electrons increase significantly, suggesting that the heating mechanism of these electrons is coupled to the solar wind energy input. At impact the magnetic field strength in the coma increases by a factor of 2-5 as more interplanetary magnetic field piles up around the comet. During two CIR impact events, we observe possible plasma boundaries forming, or moving past Rosetta, as the strong solar wind compresses the cometary plasma environment. We also discuss the possibility of seeing some signatures of the ionospheric response to tail disconnection events.

  6. Impact of a regional acute care surgery model on patient access and outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Kreindler, Sara A.; Zhang, Liping; Metge, Colleen J.; Nason, Richard W.; Wright, Brock; Rudnick, Wendy; Moffatt, Michael E.K.

    2013-01-01

    Background The consolidation of acute care surgery (ACS) services at 3 of 6 hospitals in a Canadian health region sought to alleviate a relative shortage of surgeons able to take emergency call. We examined how this affected patient access and outcomes. Methods Using the generalized linear model and statistical process control, we analyzed ACS-related episodes that occurred between 39 months prior to and 17 months after the model’s implementation (n = 14 713). Results Time to surgery increased after the consolidation. Wait times increased primarily for patients presenting at nonreferral hospitals who were likely to require transfer to a referral hospital. Although ACS teams enabled referral hospitals to handle a much higher volume of patients without increasing within-hospital wait times, overall system wait times were lengthened by the growing frequency of patient transfers. Wait times for inpatient admission were difficult to interpret because there was a trend toward admitting patients directly to the ACS service, bypassing the emergency department (ED). For patients who did go through the ED, wait times for inpatient admission increased after the consolidation; however, this trend was cancelled out by the apparently zero waits of patients who bypassed the ED. Regionalization showed no impact on length of stay, readmissions, mortality or complications. Conclusion Consolidation enabled the region to ensure adequate surgical coverage without harming patients. The need to transfer patients who presented at nonreferral hospitals led to longer waits. PMID:24067516

  7. HIMALA: climate impacts on glaciers, snow, and hydrology in the Himalayan region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Ouyang, Hua; Habib, Shahid; Shrestha, Basanta; Shrestha, Mandira; Panday, Prajjwal; Tzortziou, Maria; Policelli, Frederick; Artan, Guleid; Giriraj, Amarnath; Bajracharya, Sagar R.; Racoviteanu, Adina

    2010-01-01

    Glaciers are the largest reservoir of freshwater on Earth, supporting one third of the world's population. The Himalaya possess one of the largest resources of snow and ice, which act as a freshwater reservoir for more than 1.3 billion people. This article describes a new project called HIMALA, which focuses on utilizing satellite-based products for better understanding of hydrological processes of the river basins of the region. With support from the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), together with its partners and member countries, has been working on the application of satellite-based rainfall estimates for flood prediction. The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) partners are working with ICIMOD to incorporate snowmelt and glacier melt into a widely used hydrological model. Thus, through improved modeling of the contribution of snow and ice meltwater to river flow in the region, the HIMALA project will improve the ability of ICIMOD and its partners to understand the impact of weather and climate on floods, droughts, and other water- and climate-induced natural hazards in the Himalayan region in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan.

  8. The impacts of precipitation on land- atmosphere interaction over the semi-arid Loess Plateau region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    WANG, G.; Huang, J.

    2015-12-01

    To understand the impacts of precipitation on land-atmosphere interactions over semi-arid regions, 6-year continuous measurements data in situ were analyzed to investigate the influence of precipitation on soil moisture, evapotranspiration, energy partitioning and plant growing over Loess Plateau in northwest China. Results show that annual precipitation had obvious inter-annual variability, and the variation of soil moisture; evaporation and CO2 flux were very consistently with the annual cycle and intensity of precipitation. Soil moisture is the key participant in land-atmosphere interaction. However, as the water shortage and disconnected from water table over the semi-arid region, it is much more sensitive with precipitation compensation and evaporation feedbacks. Soil water can cooling the near surface air temperature by evaporation (latent heat flux), and also as the main energy partitioning consumer of net radiation in humid area or pluvial period in arid area, yet it was water limited in arid and semi-arid region, sensible heat flux predominated net radiation for enhancing the surface air temperature. We also found that soil moisture profile significantly affected the plant physiology, which was also consistent with the annual cycle and intensity of precipitation.

  9. Modeling low-carbon US electricity futures to explore impacts on national and regional water use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clemmer, S.; Rogers, J.; Sattler, S.; Macknick, J.; Mai, T.

    2013-03-01

    The US electricity sector is currently responsible for more than 40% of both energy-related carbon dioxide emissions and total freshwater withdrawals for power plant cooling (EIA 2012a Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (Washington, DC: US Department of Energy), Kenny et al 2009 Estimated Use of Water in the United States 2005 (US Geological Survey Circular vol 1344) (Reston, VA: US Geological Survey)). Changes in the future electricity generation mix in the United States will have important implications for water use, particularly given the changing water availability arising from competing demands and climate change and variability. However, most models that are used to make long-term projections of the electricity sector do not have sufficient regional detail for analyzing water-related impacts and informing important electricity- and water-related decisions. This paper uses the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) to model a range of low-carbon electricity futures nationally that are used to calculate changes in national water use (a sample result, on water consumption, is included here). The model also produces detailed sub-regional electricity results through 2050 that can be linked with basin-level water modeling. The results will allow for sufficient geographic resolution and detail to be relevant from a water management perspective.

  10. HIMALA: Climate Impacts on Glaciers, Snow, and Hydrology in the Himalayan Region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Ouyang, Hua; Habib, Shahid; Shrestha, Basanta; Shrestha, Mandira; Panday, Prajjwal; Tzortziou, Maria; Policelli, Frederick; Artan, Guleid; Giriraj, Amarnath; Bajracharya, Sagar R.; Racoviteanu, Adina

    2010-01-01

    Glaciers are the largest reservoir of freshwater on Earth, supporting one third of the world s population. The Himalaya possess one of the largest resources of snow and ice, which act as a freshwater reservoir for more than 1.3 billion people. This article describes a new project called HIMALA, which focuses on utilizing satellite-based products for better understanding of hydrological processes of the river basins of the region. With support from the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), together with its partners and member countries, has been working on the application of satellite-based rainfall estimates for flood prediction. The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) partners are working with ICIMOD to incorporate snowmelt and glacier melt into a widely used hydrological model. Thus, through improved modeling of the contribution of snow and ice meltwater to river flow in the region, the HIMALA project will improve the ability of ICIMOD and its partners to understand the impact of weather and climate on floods, droughts, and other water- and climate-induced natural hazards in the Himalayan region in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan.

  11. Examining the Impact of Nitrous Acid Chemistry on Ozone and PM over the Pearl River Delta Region

    EPA Science Inventory

    The impact of nitrous acid (HONO) chemistry on regional ozone and particulate matter in Pearl River Delta region was investigated using the community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) modeling system and the CB05 mechanism. Model simulations were conducted for a ten-day period in Oct...

  12. Farm gate environmental impacts of beef production in the Northern Plains and Midwest regions of the U.S.

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Cradle-to-farm gate environmental impacts of beef production in two cattle producing regions were assessed as part of an on-going national sustainability study of the U.S. beef value chain launched by the Beef Checkoff. Region-specific data on common ranch and feedlot management practices were chara...

  13. Regional variation in water-related impacts of shale gas development and implications for emerging international plays.

    PubMed

    Mauter, Meagan S; Alvarez, Pedro J J; Burton, Allen; Cafaro, Diego C; Chen, Wei; Gregory, Kelvin B; Jiang, Guibin; Li, Qilin; Pittock, Jamie; Reible, Danny; Schnoor, Jerald L

    2014-01-01

    The unconventional fossil fuel industry is expected to expand dramatically in coming decades as conventional reserves wane. Minimizing the environmental impacts of this energy transition requires a contextualized understanding of the unique regional issues that shale gas development poses. This manuscript highlights the variation in regional water issues associated with shale gas development in the U.S. and the approaches of various states in mitigating these impacts. The manuscript also explores opportunities for emerging international shale plays to leverage the diverse experiences of U.S. states in formulating development strategies that minimize water-related impacts within their environmental, cultural, and political ecosystem.

  14. Impact of Aircraft Emissions on Reactive Nitrogen over the North Atlantic Flight Corridor Region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koike, M.; Kondo, Y.; Ikeda, H.; Gregory, G. L.; Anderson, B. E.; Sachse, G. W.; Blake, D.; Liu, S. C.; Singh, H. B.; Thompson, A.

    1999-01-01

    The impact of aircraft emissions on reactive nitrogen in the upper troposphere (UT) and lowermost stratosphere (LS) was estimated using the NO(y)-O3 correlation obtained during the SASS Ozone and NO(x) Experiment (SONEX) carried out over the US continent and North Atlantic Flight Corridor (NAFC) region in October and November 1997. To evaluate the large scale impact, we made a reference NO(y)-O3 relationship in air masses, upon which aircraft emissions were considered to have little impact. For this purpose, the integrated input of NO(x) from aircraft into an air mass along a 10-d back trajectory (DELTA-NO(y)) was calculated based on the ANCAT/EC2 emission inventory. The excess NO(y) (dNO(y)) was calculated from the observed NO(y) and the reference NO(y)-O3 relationship. As a result, a weak positive correlation was found between the dNO(y) and DELTA-NO(y), and dNO(y) and NO(x)/NO(y) values, while no positive correlation between the dNO(y) and CO values was found, suggesting that dNO(y) values can be used as a measure of the NO(x) input from aircraft emissions. The excess NO(y) values calculated from another NO(y)-O3 reference relationship made using in-situ CN data also agreed with these dNO(y) values, within the uncertainties. At the NAFC region (45 N - 60 N), the median value of dNO(y) in the troposphere increased with altitude above 9 km and reached 70 pptv (20% of NO(y)) at 11 km. The excess NO(x) was estimated to be about half of the dNO(y) values, corresponding to 30% of the observed NO(x) level. Higher dNO(y) values were generally found in air masses where O3 = 75 - 125 ppbv, suggesting a more pronounced effect around the tropopause. The median value of dNO(y) in the stratosphere at the NAFC region at 8.5 - 11.5 km was about 120 pptv. The higher dNO(y) values in the LS were probably due to the accumulated effect of aircraft emissions, given the long residence time of affected air in the LS. Similar dNO(y) values were also obtained in air masses sampled over

  15. Composition of Rainwater and its Impact on Regional Hydrologic Processes in the Midwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iqbal, M. Z.

    2003-12-01

    This study was conducted in the Midwestern United States to determine the impact of rain composition on the regional hydrologic processes. It was hypothesized that a considerable amount of atmospheric aerosols in the region are derived from agricultural soil. These suspended soil particles include farm chemicals that contain nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur compounds, which can dissolve in raindrops during condensation and change the rain composition leading to increased levels of acidity and nutrients to the surface water. In order to conduct this study, the predominant source of atmospheric moisture was determined by analyzing the isotope (oxygen and deuterium) composition of rainwater and surface water in the area. The observed ranges of Oxygen and Deuterium isotope values (in parts per thousands) are for Ames, delta-O: -30.1 to +1.3, delta-D: -233.0 to +10.1; for Cedar Falls, delta-O: -31.8 to -0.5, delta-D: -245 to -4.0; and for Iowa City, delta-O: -17.5 to -0.6, delta-D: -132.0 to +2.0. It was observed in this study that the isotopic relationships between delta-O and delta-D are generally well correlated with the Meteoric Water Line (MWL) suggested by Craig (1964) in all three sampling locations of the study area. On the contrary, approximately 50% of the samples in Ames, 61% in Cedar Falls, and 44% in Iowa City have d-excess values that are higher than +10 parts per thousand. Although the d-excess averages suggest a predominantly oceanic source of moisture (d-excess = +10 ppt), many condensation events were impacted by recycled (subjected to evaporation, transpiration, etc.) water from terrestrial sources. The results of chemical analysis of rainwater shows that the particulate materials from land sources, especially the agricultural chemicals considerably impacted the general composition of atmospheric moisture. The concentrations of chloride, nitrate, and sulfate, respectively are 3.0, 4.9, and 5.2 mg/L in Cedar Falls, and 4.0, 6.9, and 5.3 mg/L in Ames

  16. Impact of Agricultural Practice on Regional Climate in a CoupledLand Surface Mesoscale Model

    SciTech Connect

    Cooley, H.S.; Riley, W.J.; Torn, M.S.; He, Y.

    2004-07-01

    The land surface has been shown to form strong feedbacks with climate due to linkages between atmospheric conditions and terrestrial ecosystem exchanges of energy, momentum, water, and trace gases. Although often ignored in modeling studies, land management itself may form significant feedbacks. Because crops are harvested earlier under drier conditions, regional air temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture, for example, affect harvest timing, particularly of rain-fed crops. This removal of vegetation alters the land surface characteristics and may, in turn, affect regional climate. We applied a coupled climate(MM5) and land-surface (LSM1) model to examine the effects of early and late winter wheat harvest on regional climate in the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility in the Southern Great Plains, where winter wheat accounts for 20 percent of the land area. Within the winter wheat region, simulated 2 m air temperature was 1.3 C warmer in the Early Harvest scenario at mid-day averaged over the two weeks following harvest. Soils in the harvested area were drier and warmer in the top 10 cm and wetter in the 10-20 cm layer. Midday soils were 2.5 C warmer in the harvested area at mid-day averaged over the two weeks following harvest. Harvest also dramatically altered latent and sensible heat fluxes. Although differences between scenarios diminished once both scenarios were harvested, the short-term impacts of land management on climate were comparable to those from land cover change demonstrated in other studies.

  17. Do age and sex impact on the absolute cell numbers of human brain regions?

    PubMed

    Oliveira-Pinto, Ana V; Andrade-Moraes, Carlos H; Oliveira, Lays M; Parente-Bruno, Danielle R; Santos, Raquel M; Coutinho, Renan A; Alho, Ana T L; Leite, Renata E P; Suemoto, Claudia K; Grinberg, Lea T; Pasqualucci, Carlos A; Jacob-Filho, Wilson; Lent, Roberto

    2016-09-01

    What is the influence of sex and age on the quantitative cell composition of the human brain? By using the isotropic fractionator to estimate absolute cell numbers in selected brain regions, we looked for sex- and age-related differences in 32 medial temporal lobes (comprised basically by the hippocampal formation, amygdala and parahippocampal gyrus), sixteen male (29-92 years) and sixteen female (25-82); and 31 cerebella, seventeen male (29-92 years) and fourteen female (25-82). These regions were dissected from the brain, fixed and homogenized, and then labeled with a DNA-marker (to count all nuclei) and with a neuron-specific nuclear marker (to estimate neuron number). Total number of cells in the medial temporal lobe was found to be 1.91 billion in men, and 1.47 billion in women, a difference of 23 %. This region showed 34 % more neurons in men than in women: 525.1 million against 347.4 million. In contrast, no sex differences were found in the cerebellum. Regarding the influence of age, a quadratic correlation was found between neuronal numbers and age in the female medial temporal lobe, suggesting an early increase followed by slight decline after age 50. The cerebellum showed numerical stability along aging for both neurons and non-neuronal cells. In sum, results indicate a sex-related regional difference in total and neuronal cell numbers in the medial temporal lobe, but not in the cerebellum. On the other hand, aging was found to impact on cell numbers in the medial temporal lobe, while the cerebellum proved resilient to neuronal losses in the course of life.

  18. Impact of land cover characterization on regional climate modeling over West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba; Pal, Jeremy S.; Wang, Guiling L.; Lawrence, Peter J.

    2016-01-01

    The impact of high resolution modern vegetation cover on the West African climate is examined using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model implementing the NCAR Community Land Model. Two high resolution 25 km long-term simulations driven by the output from a coarser 50-km resolution simulation are performed for the period 1998-2010. One high resolution simulation uses an earlier and coarser-resolution version of plant functional type distribution and leaf area index, while the other uses a more recent, higher-quality, and finer-resolution version of the data. The results indicate that the new land cover distribution substantially alters the distribution of temperature with warming in Central Nigeria, northern Gulf of Guinea and part of the Sahel due to the replacement of C4 grass with corn; and cooling along the coastlines of the Gulf of Guinea and in Central Africa due to the replacement of C4 grass with tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these temperature changes with a net decrease (increase) in regions of warming (cooling). The improved land cover distribution also results in a wetter monsoon season. The presence of corn tends to favor larger precipitation amounts via more intense events, while the presence of tropical broadleaf evergreen trees tends to favor the occurrence of both more intense and more frequent events. The wetter conditions appear to be sustained via (1) an enhanced soil moisture feedback; and (2) elevated moisture transport due to increased low-level convergence in regions south of 10N where the most substantial land cover differences are present. Overall the changes induced by the improved vegetation cover improve, to some extent, the performance of the high resolution regional climate model in simulating the main West African summer monsoon features.

  19. Regional economic impacts of water management alternatives: the case of Devils Lake, North Dakota, USA.

    PubMed

    Leistritz, F Larry; Leitch, Jay A; Bangsund, Dean A

    2002-12-01

    Devils Lake, located in a closed basin in northeastern North Dakota has over a century-long history of highly fluctuating water levels. The lake has risen nearly 25 feet (7.7 m) since 1993, more than doubling its surface area. Rising water levels have affected rural lands, transportation routes, and communities near the lake. In response to rising lake levels, Federal, state and local agencies have adopted a three-part approach to flood damage reduction, consisting of (1) upper basin water management to reduce the amount of water reaching the lake, (2) protection for structures and infrastructure if the lake continues to rise, and (3) developing an emergency outlet to release some lake water. The purpose of this study was to provide information about the net regional economic effects of a proposed emergency outlet for Devils Lake. An input-output model was used to estimate the regional economic effects of the outlet, under two scenarios: (1) the most likely future situation (MLS) and (2) a best case situation (BCS) (i.e., where the benefits from the outlet would be greatest), albeit an unlikely one. Regional economic effects of the outlet include effects on transportation (road and railroad construction), agriculture (land kept in production, returned to production sooner, or kept in production longer), residential relocations, and outlet construction expenditures. Effects are measured as changes in gross business volume (gross receipts) for various sectors, secondary employment, and local tax collections. The net regional economic effects of the proposed outlet would be relatively small, and consideration of these economic impacts would not strengthen the case for an outlet.

  20. Evaluation of the Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Radiance and Profile Data Assimilation in Partly Cloudy Regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zavodsky, Bradley; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Jedlovec, Gary

    2013-01-01

    Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Retrieved profiles from AIRS contain much of the information that is contained in the radiances and may be able to reveal reasons for this reduced impact. Assimilating AIRS retrieved profiles in an identical analysis configuration to the radiances, tracking the quantity and quality of the assimilated data in each technique, and examining analysis increments and forecast impact from each data type can yield clues as to the reasons for the reduced impact. By doing this with regional scale models individual synoptic features (and the impact of AIRS on these features) can be more easily tracked. This project examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing operational techniques used for AIRS radiances and research techniques used for AIRS retrieved profiles. Parallel versions of a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) are run to examine the impact AIRS radiances and retrieved profiles. Statistical evaluation of 6 weeks of forecast runs will be compared along with preliminary results of in-depth investigations for select case comparing the analysis increments in partly cloudy regions and short-term forecast impacts.

  1. Investigation of Long-Term Impacts of Urbanization and Global Warming in a Coastal Tropical Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Comarazamy, D. E.; Gonzalez, J.; Luvall, J. C.

    2010-12-01

    The goal of this project is to gain a better understanding of the climate impacts caused by the combined effects of land cover and land use (LCLU) changes and increasing global concentrations of green house gases (GHG) in tropical coastal areas, taking as the test case the densely populated northeast region of the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico. The research uses an integrated approach of high-resolution remote sensing information linked to the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), which was employed to perform ensembles of climate simulations (combining 2-LCLU and 2-GHG concentration scenarios). Reconstructed agricultural maps are used to define past LCLU, and combined with reconstructed sea surface temperatures (SST) for the same period form the PAST climate scenario (1951-1956); while the PRESENT scenario (2000-2004) was additionally supported by the high resolution remote sensing data. The climate reconstruction approach is validated with available observed climate data from surface weather stations for both periods simulated. The selection of the past and present climate scenarios considers large-scale biases (i.e. ENSO/NAO) as reflected in the region of interest. Direct and cross comparison of the results is allowing quantifying single, combined, and competitive effects. Results indicate that urban sprawl dominates the pattern and magnitude of maximum temperature differences, while global GHG have dominant effects on minimum temperatures (following regional tendencies). To further investigate impacts of land use the Thermal Response Number (TRN) and Bowen ratio are analyzed. The TRN is a surface property defined as the ratio of the surface net radiation to the rate of change in surface temperature over shorts periods of time, it expresses how a particular surface partitions energy into non-radiative surface energy budget terms (i.e., latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, and soil heat flux or storage). Natural vegetated surfaces have a greater TRN

  2. Impacts of natural gas mining on regional methane levels in Pennsylvania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lembeck-Edens, A. M.; Fuentes, J. D.; Martins, D. K.; Grannas, A. M.

    2013-12-01

    Increased natural gas exploration has been hypothesized to be a strong source of atmospheric methane, leading to enhanced regional methane levels. Fugitive methane emissions can result from leaky natural gas wells and pipelines. Pennsylvania is experiencing rapid natural gas well development and operation. In the Pennsylvania Marcellus Shale region, the density of natural gas wells is increasing. Therefore, a field study took place during 8 June to 6 August 2013 to investigate the magnitude of fugitive methane emissions near well sites and along established pipelines, as well as the spatial distribution of methane throughout Pennsylvania. The necessary instruments were mounted on a mobile platform (six-passenger van) to make transects running from southwestern to northeastern Pennsylvania where the highest density of wells is already established. Methane and carbon dioxide mixing ratios and their respective 13C isotopes were detected using a cavity ring-down spectrometer while the van was moving along pipelines or near natural gas well sites. Air sampling was done in areas away from natural well sites to establish the baseline of methane levels in the rural atmosphere. Also, air sampling took place around barns to distinguish the contribution of cattle to the atmospheric loading of methane. In the rural atmosphere, away from natural gas wells, methane levels remained around (baseline) 1.75 parts per millions (ppm). Methane levels in areas impacted by natural gas wells were higher than the baseline. Along pipelines, methane levels ranged from baseline levels of 1.75 ppm to 5.00 ppm. Near wells, plumes of methane-enriched air reached as high as 15.30 ppm. Although leaks from wells have been noted in previous studies, this investigation suggested that wells intermittently leaked methane. The main conclusion from the present study is that fugitive emissions from natural gas wells and pipelines contribute to enhancing the regional methane levels during daytime

  3. Hypervariable antigenic region 1 of classical swine fever virus E2 protein impacts antibody neutralization.

    PubMed

    Liao, Xun; Wang, Zuohuan; Cao, Tong; Tong, Chao; Geng, Shichao; Gu, Yuanxing; Zhou, Yingshan; Li, Xiaoliang; Fang, Weihuan

    2016-07-19

    Envelope glycoprotein E2 of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) is the major antigen that induces neutralizing antibodies and confers protection against CSFV infection. There are three hypervariable antigenic regions (HAR1, HAR2 and HAR3) of E2 that are different between the group 1 vaccine C-strain and group 2 clinical isolates. This study was aimed to characterize the antigenic epitope region recognized by monoclonal antibody 4F4 (mAb-4F4) that is present in the group 2 field isolate HZ1-08, but not in the C-strain, and examine its impact on neutralization titers when antisera from different recombinant viruses were cross-examined. Indirect ELISA with C-strain E2-based chimeric proteins carrying the three HAR regions showed that the mAb-4F4 bound to HAR1 from HZ1-08 E2, but not to HAR2 or HAR3, indicating that the specific epitope is located in the HAR1 region. Of the 6 major residues differences between C-strain and field isolates, Glu713 in the HAR1 region of strain HZ1-08 is critical for mAb-4F4 binding either at the recombinant protein level or using intact recombinant viruses carrying single mutations. C-strain-based recombinant viruses carrying the most antigenic part of E2 or HAR1 from strain HZ1-08 remained non-pathogenic to pigs and induced good antibody responses. By cross-neutralization assay, we observed that the anti-C-strain serum lost most of its neutralization capacity to RecC-HZ-E2 and QZ-14 (subgroup 2.1d field isolate in 2014), and vice versa. More importantly, the RecC-HAR1 virus remained competent in neutralizing ReC-HZ-E2 and QZ-14 strains without compromising the neutralization capability to the recombinant C-strain. Thus, we propose that chimeric C-strain carrying the HAR1 region of field isolates is a good vaccine candidate for classical swine fever.

  4. Regional impacts of urbanization on stream channel geometry: A case study in semiarid southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taniguchi, Kristine T.; Biggs, Trent W.

    2015-11-01

    Urbanization often increases storm runoff, peak discharges and rates of stream channel erosion. Coastal California has experienced rapid urbanization over the past several decades and has the potential for stream channel degradation. Several counties in California have implemented Hydromodification Management Plans (HMPs) to protect channels from erosion, but few studies have quantified the impact of urbanization on channel geometry in diverse geological settings at the county scale. A synoptic survey of field sites (N = 56) by the California Environmental Data Exchange Network (CEDEN) and additional field surveys (N = 24) were used to develop regional hydraulic geometry curves relating bankfull cross-sectional area (Axs), width (w), mean depth (d), and discharge (Qbf) to watershed area (Aw) in San Diego County. Regional curves were compared for urban and reference sites and to other regional curves developed for southern California. Multiple regression models were used to identify dominant watershed and channel controls on geometry, including Aw, percent impervious cover (I%), mean annual precipitation, underlying geology, longitudinal slope, hydrologic soil group, and channel particle size. For the reference streams, regional curves were statistically significant for w and Axs (p < 0.05). The regional curves for urban channels (I% > 20%) had significantly larger w, d, Axs, and Qbf for a given watershed size. A majority (68%) of the urban channels and 78% of the small urban channels (Aw < 10 km2) were enlarged. Enlargement of channels in small watersheds disrupted the correlation between Aw and bankfull dimensions, and I% was the only significant predictor of channel geometry in urban watersheds. Channel response differed by channel substrate: sand-bedded channels incised and experienced extreme enlargement of up to 115 × the Axs of reference sites, while gravel-bedded channels widened and showed less enlargement (< 7 × reference Axs). Diverse channel responses

  5. Hypervariable antigenic region 1 of classical swine fever virus E2 protein impacts antibody neutralization.

    PubMed

    Liao, Xun; Wang, Zuohuan; Cao, Tong; Tong, Chao; Geng, Shichao; Gu, Yuanxing; Zhou, Yingshan; Li, Xiaoliang; Fang, Weihuan

    2016-07-19

    Envelope glycoprotein E2 of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) is the major antigen that induces neutralizing antibodies and confers protection against CSFV infection. There are three hypervariable antigenic regions (HAR1, HAR2 and HAR3) of E2 that are different between the group 1 vaccine C-strain and group 2 clinical isolates. This study was aimed to characterize the antigenic epitope region recognized by monoclonal antibody 4F4 (mAb-4F4) that is present in the group 2 field isolate HZ1-08, but not in the C-strain, and examine its impact on neutralization titers when antisera from different recombinant viruses were cross-examined. Indirect ELISA with C-strain E2-based chimeric proteins carrying the three HAR regions showed that the mAb-4F4 bound to HAR1 from HZ1-08 E2, but not to HAR2 or HAR3, indicating that the specific epitope is located in the HAR1 region. Of the 6 major residues differences between C-strain and field isolates, Glu713 in the HAR1 region of strain HZ1-08 is critical for mAb-4F4 binding either at the recombinant protein level or using intact recombinant viruses carrying single mutations. C-strain-based recombinant viruses carrying the most antigenic part of E2 or HAR1 from strain HZ1-08 remained non-pathogenic to pigs and induced good antibody responses. By cross-neutralization assay, we observed that the anti-C-strain serum lost most of its neutralization capacity to RecC-HZ-E2 and QZ-14 (subgroup 2.1d field isolate in 2014), and vice versa. More importantly, the RecC-HAR1 virus remained competent in neutralizing ReC-HZ-E2 and QZ-14 strains without compromising the neutralization capability to the recombinant C-strain. Thus, we propose that chimeric C-strain carrying the HAR1 region of field isolates is a good vaccine candidate for classical swine fever. PMID:27317266

  6. Pulling Marbles from a Bag: Deducing the Regional Impact History of the SPA Basin from Impact Melt Rocks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cohen, Barbara A.; Coker, R. F.

    2009-01-01

    The South Pole-Aitken (SPA) basin is an important target for absolute age-dating. Vertical and lateral impact mixing ensures that regolith within SPA will contain rock fragments from SPA itself, local impact craters, and faraway giant basins. About 20% of the regolith at any given site is foreign [1, 2], but much of this material will be cold ejecta, not impact melt. We calculated the fraction of contributed impact melt using scaling laws to estimate the amount and provenance of impact melt, demonstrating that SPA melt is the dominant impact melt rock (>70%) likely to be present. We also constructed a statistical model to illustrate how many randomly-selected impact-melt fragments would need to be dated, and with what accuracy, to confidently reproduce the impact history of a site. A detailed impact history becomes recognizable after a few hundred to a thousand randomly-selected marbles, however, it will be useful to have more information (e.g. compositional, mineralogical, remote sensing) to group fragments. These exercises show that SPA melt has a high probability of being present in a scoop sample and that dating of a few hundred to a thousand impact-melt fragments will yield the impact history of the SPA basin.

  7. Hydrologic variability in dryland regions: impacts on ecosystem dynamics and food security.

    PubMed

    D'Odorico, Paolo; Bhattachan, Abinash

    2012-11-19

    Research on ecosystem and societal response to global environmental change typically considers the effects of shifts in mean climate conditions. There is, however, some evidence of ongoing changes also in the variance of hydrologic and climate fluctuations. A relatively high interannual variability is a distinctive feature of the hydrologic regime of dryland regions, particularly at the desert margins. Hydrologic variability has an important impact on ecosystem dynamics, food security and societal reliance on ecosystem services in water-limited environments. Here, we investigate some of the current patterns of hydrologic variability in drylands around the world and review the major effects of hydrologic fluctuations on ecosystem resilience, maintenance of biodiversity and food security. We show that random hydrologic fluctuations may enhance the resilience of dryland ecosystems by obliterating bistable deterministic behaviours and threshold-like responses to external drivers. Moreover, by increasing biodiversity and the associated ecosystem redundancy, hydrologic variability can indirectly enhance post-disturbance recovery, i.e. ecosystem resilience.

  8. Potential Impacts of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles on Regional Power Generation

    SciTech Connect

    Hadley, Stanton W; Tsvetkova, Alexandra A

    2008-01-01

    Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are being developed around the world, with much work aiming to optimize engine and battery for efficient operation, both during discharge and when grid electricity is available for recharging. However, the general expectation has been that the grid will not be greatly affected by the use of PHEVs because the recharging will occur during off-peak hours, or the number of vehicles will grow slowly enough so that capacity planning will respond adequately. This expectation does not consider that drivers will control the timing of recharging, and their inclination will be to plug in when convenient, rather than when utilities would prefer. It is important to understand the ramifications of adding load from PHEVs onto the grid. Depending on when and where the vehicles are plugged in, they could cause local or regional constraints on the grid. They could require the addition of new electric capacity and increase the utilization of existing capacity. Usage patterns of local distribution grids will change, and some lines or substations may become overloaded sooner than expected. Furthermore, the type of generation used to meet the demand for recharging PHEVs will depend on the region of the country and the timing of recharging. This paper analyzes the potential impacts of PHEVs on electricity demand, supply, generation structure, prices, and associated emission levels in 2020 and 2030 in 13 regions specified by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) and the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Energy Information Administration (EIA), and on which the data and analysis in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2007 are based (Figure ES-1). The estimates of power plant supplies and regional hourly electricity demand come from publicly available sources from EIA and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Electricity requirements for PHEVs are based on analysis from the Electric Power Research Institute, with an optimistic

  9. Climate change impact on shallow groundwater conditions in Hungary: Conclusions from a regional modelling study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kovács, Attila; Marton, Annamária; Tóth, György; Szöcs, Teodóra

    2016-04-01

    A quantitative methodology has been developed for the calculation of groundwater table based on measured and simulated climate parameters. The aim of the study was to develop a toolset which can be used for the calculation of shallow groundwater conditions for various climate scenarios. This was done with the goal of facilitating the assessment of climate impact and vulnerability of shallow groundwater resources. The simulated groundwater table distributions are representative of groundwater conditions at the regional scale. The introduced methodology is valid for modelling purposes at various scales and thus represents a versatile tool for the assessment of climate vulnerability of shallow groundwater bodies. The calculation modules include the following: 1. A toolset to calculate climate zonation from climate parameter grids, 2. Delineation of recharge zones (Hydrological Response Units, HRUs) based on geology, landuse and slope conditions, 3. Calculation of percolation (recharge) rates using 1D analytical hydrological models, 4. Simulation of the groundwater table using numerical groundwater flow models. The applied methodology provides a quantitative link between climate conditions and shallow groundwater conditions, and thus can be used for assessing climate impacts. The climate data source applied in our calculation comprised interpolated daily climate data of the Central European CARPATCLIM database. Climate zones were determined making use of the Thorntwaite climate zonation scheme. Recharge zones (HRUs) were determined based on surface geology, landuse and slope conditions. The HELP hydrological model was used for the calculation of 1D water balance for hydrological response units. The MODFLOW numerical groundwater modelling code was used for the calculation of the water table. The developed methodology was demonstrated through the simulation of regional groundwater table using spatially averaged climate data and hydrogeological properties for various time

  10. Impact of Plasma Sheath on Rocket-based E-region Ion Measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Imtiaz, N.; Burchill, J. K.; Marchand, R.

    2013-12-01

    We model the particle velocity distribution functions around the entrance window of the Suprathermal Ion Imager (SII) to assess the impact of electrostatic sheath on ion measurements in the E-region ionosphere. The SII sensor is an electrostatic analyzer that measures two dimensional slices of the distribution of the kinetic energies and arrival-angles of low energy ions. The study is concerned with the interpretation of data obtained from the sensor SII that was affixed to a 1-m NASA rocket 36.234 as part of the Joule II mission to investigate Joule heating in the E-region ionosphere. The rocket flew into quiet auroral conditions above Northern Alaska on 19 January 2007. The payload was spin-stabilitized with a period of 1.6 s, giving an apparent rotation of the ion flow velocity in the frame of reference of the SII. We numerically investigate the ram velocity effect on the ions velocity distributions in the vicinity of SII aperture at an altitudes of approximately 150km. The electrostatic sheath potential profiles surrounding the sensor and payload are calculated numerically with the PIC code PTetra. It is observed that the direction of the ion flow velocity vector modifies the plasma sheath potential profile. This in turn impacts the velocity distributions of molecular oxygen and Nitric oxideions at the aperture of the particle sensor. The velocity distribution functions are calculated by using test-particle modeling. These particle distribution functions are then used to inject the particles in the particle sensor, and to calculate the fluxes on the sensor microchannel plate (MCP).

  11. Impact of burned areas on the northern African seasonal climate from the perspective of regional modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Sales, F.; Xue, Y.; Okin, G. S.

    2014-12-01

    This study presents an investigation of the impact of burned areas on the surface energy balance and monthly precipitation in the northern Africa as simulated by a state-of-the-art regional model. Mean burned area fraction derived from MODIS approximate date of burning product were implemented in a set of 1-year long WRF/NMM/SSiB2 model simulations. Vegetation cover fraction and LAI were degraded daily based on mean burned area fraction and on the survival rate for each vegetation land cover type. Additionally, ground darkening associated with wildfire-induced ash and charcoal deposition was temporarily imposed through lower ground albedo for a period of 10 days after burning. In general, wildfire-induced vegetation and ground degradation increased surface albedo by exposing the brighter bare ground of the region, which in turn caused a decrease in surface net radiation and evapotranspiration in northern sub-saharan Africa. A decrease in atmospheric moisture flux convergence was simulated in the burned area experiments, which plays a dominant role in reducing precipitation over the area, especially in the months preceding the West African monsoon onset. The areas with largest impacts were those covered by forests and savanna, where annual precipitation decreased by 4.2% and 3.6%, respectively. This study suggests the cooling and drying of atmosphere induced by burned areas led to strengthening of subsidence during pre-onset and weakening of upward motion during onset and mature stages of the monsoon leading to a waning of convective instability and precipitation. Monthly vertical wind over the area showed a strengthening of downward motion in winter and spring seasons, and weakening of upward movement during the rainy months. Furthermore, precipitation energy analysis revealed that most of precipitation decrease originated from convective events, especially for those with daily precipitation rates above 2.0 mm day-1, which substantiates the hypothesis of convective

  12. Global and Regional Impacts of HONO on the Chemical Composition of Clouds and Aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elshorbany, Y. F.; Crutzen, P. J.; Steil, B.; Pozzer, A.; Tost, H.; Lelieveld, J.

    2014-01-01

    Recently, realistic simulation of nitrous acid (HONO) based on the HONO / NOx ratio of 0.02 was found to have a significant impact on the global budgets of HOx (OH + HO2) and gas phase oxidation products in polluted regions, especially in winter when other photolytic sources are of minor importance. It has been reported that chemistry-transport models underestimate sulphate concentrations, mostly during winter. Here we show that simulating realistic HONO levels can significantly enhance aerosol sulphate (S(VI)) due to the increased formation of H2SO4. Even though in-cloud aqueous phase oxidation of dissolved SO2 (S(IV)) is the main source of S(VI), it appears that HONO related enhancement of H2O2 does not significantly affect sulphate because of the predominantly S(IV) limited conditions, except over eastern Asia. Nitrate is also increased via enhanced gaseous HNO3 formation and N2O5 hydrolysis on aerosol particles. Ammonium nitrate is enhanced in ammonia-rich regions but not under ammonia-limited conditions. Furthermore, particle number concentrations are also higher, accompanied by the transfer from hydrophobic to hydrophilic aerosol modes. This implies a significant impact on the particle lifetime and cloud nucleating properties. The HONO induced enhancements of all species studied are relatively strong in winter though negligible in summer. Simulating realistic HONO levels is found to improve the model measurement agreement of sulphate aerosols, most apparent over the US. Our results underscore the importance of HONO for the atmospheric oxidizing capacity and corroborate the central role of cloud chemical processing in S(IV) formation

  13. Global and Regional Impacts of HONO on the Chemical Composition of Clouds and Aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elshorbany, Y. F.; Crutzen, P. J.; Steil, B.; Pozzer, A.; Tost, H.; Lelieveld, J.

    2014-01-01

    Recently, realistic simulation of nitrous acid (HONO) based on the HONO/NO(sub x) ratio of 0.02 was found to have a significant impact on the global budgets of HO(sub x) (OH + HO2) and gas phase oxidation products in polluted regions, especially in winter when other photolytic sources are of minor importance. It has been reported that chemistry-transport models underestimate sulphate concentrations, mostly during winter. Here we show that simulating realistic HONO levels can significantly enhance aerosol sulphate (S(VI)) due to the increased formation of H2SO4. Even though in-cloud aqueous phase oxidation of dissolved SO2 (S(IV)) is the main source of S(VI), it appears that HONO related enhancement of H2O2 does not significantly affect sulphate because of the predominantly S(IV) limited conditions, except over eastern Asia. Nitrate is also increased via enhanced gaseous HNO3 formation and N2O5 hydrolysis on aerosol particles. Ammonium nitrate is enhanced in ammonia-rich regions but not under ammonia-limited conditions. Furthermore, particle number concentrations are also higher, accompanied by the transfer from hydrophobic to hydrophilic aerosol modes. This implies a significant impact on the particle lifetime and cloud nucleating properties. The HONO induced enhancements of all species studied are relatively strong in winter though negligible in summer. Simulating realistic HONO levels is found to improve the model measurement agreement of sulphate aerosols, most apparent over the US. Our results underscore the importance of HONO for the atmospheric oxidizing capacity and corroborate the central role of cloud chemical processing in S(IV) formation.

  14. Indoor Air Pollutant Exposure for Life Cycle Assessment: Regional Health Impact Factors for Households.

    PubMed

    Rosenbaum, Ralph K; Meijer, Arjen; Demou, Evangelia; Hellweg, Stefanie; Jolliet, Olivier; Lam, Nicholas L; Margni, Manuele; McKone, Thomas E

    2015-11-01

    Human exposure to indoor pollutant concentrations is receiving increasing interest in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). We address this issue by incorporating an indoor compartment into the USEtox model, as well as by providing recommended parameter values for households in four different regions of the world differing geographically, economically, and socially. With these parameter values, intake fractions and comparative toxicity potentials for indoor emissions of dwellings for different air tightness levels were calculated. The resulting intake fractions for indoor exposure vary by 2 orders of magnitude, due to the variability of ventilation rate, building occupation, and volume. To compare health impacts as a result of indoor exposure with those from outdoor exposure, the indoor exposure characterization factors determined with the modified USEtox model were applied in a case study on cooking in non-OECD countries. This study demonstrates the appropriateness and significance of integrating indoor environments into LCA, which ensures a more holistic account of all exposure environments and allows for a better accountability of health impacts. The model, intake fractions, and characterization factors are made available for use in standard LCA studies via www.usetox.org and in standard LCA software. PMID:26444519

  15. An optimal hierarchical decision model for a regional logistics network with environmental impact consideration.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Dezhi; Li, Shuangyan; Qin, Jin

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a new model of simultaneous optimization of three-level logistics decisions, for logistics authorities, logistics operators, and logistics users, for regional logistics network with environmental impact consideration. The proposed model addresses the interaction among the three logistics players in a complete competitive logistics service market with CO2 emission charges. We also explicitly incorporate the impacts of the scale economics of the logistics park and the logistics users' demand elasticity into the model. The logistics authorities aim to maximize the total social welfare of the system, considering the demand of green logistics development by two different methods: optimal location of logistics nodes and charging a CO2 emission tax. Logistics operators are assumed to compete with logistics service fare and frequency, while logistics users minimize their own perceived logistics disutility given logistics operators' service fare and frequency. A heuristic algorithm based on the multinomial logit model is presented for the three-level decision model, and a numerical example is given to illustrate the above optimal model and its algorithm. The proposed model provides a useful tool for modeling competitive logistics services and evaluating logistics policies at the strategic level. PMID:24977209

  16. Impacts of flare emissions from an ethylene plant shutdown to regional air quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Ziyuan; Wang, Sujing; Xu, Qiang; Ho, Thomas

    2016-08-01

    Critical operations of chemical process industry (CPI) plants such as ethylene plant shutdowns could emit a huge amount of VOCs and NOx, which may result in localized and transient ozone pollution events. In this paper, a general methodology for studying dynamic ozone impacts associated with flare emissions from ethylene plant shutdowns has been developed. This multi-scale simulation study integrates process knowledge of plant shutdown emissions in terms of flow rate and speciation together with regional air-quality modeling to quantitatively investigate the sensitivity of ground-level ozone change due to an ethylene plant shutdown. The study shows the maximum hourly ozone increments can vary significantly by different plant locations and temporal factors including background ozone data and solar radiation intensity. It helps provide a cost-effective air-quality control strategy for industries by choosing the optimal starting time of plant shutdown operations in terms of minimizing the induced ozone impact (reduced from 34.1 ppb to 1.2 ppb in the performed case studies). This study provides valuable technical supports for both CPI and environmental policy makers on cost-effective air-quality controls in the future.

  17. An Optimal Hierarchical Decision Model for a Regional Logistics Network with Environmental Impact Consideration

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Dezhi; Li, Shuangyan

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a new model of simultaneous optimization of three-level logistics decisions, for logistics authorities, logistics operators, and logistics users, for regional logistics network with environmental impact consideration. The proposed model addresses the interaction among the three logistics players in a complete competitive logistics service market with CO2 emission charges. We also explicitly incorporate the impacts of the scale economics of the logistics park and the logistics users' demand elasticity into the model. The logistics authorities aim to maximize the total social welfare of the system, considering the demand of green logistics development by two different methods: optimal location of logistics nodes and charging a CO2 emission tax. Logistics operators are assumed to compete with logistics service fare and frequency, while logistics users minimize their own perceived logistics disutility given logistics operators' service fare and frequency. A heuristic algorithm based on the multinomial logit model is presented for the three-level decision model, and a numerical example is given to illustrate the above optimal model and its algorithm. The proposed model provides a useful tool for modeling competitive logistics services and evaluating logistics policies at the strategic level. PMID:24977209

  18. Indoor Air Pollutant Exposure for Life Cycle Assessment: Regional Health Impact Factors for Households.

    PubMed

    Rosenbaum, Ralph K; Meijer, Arjen; Demou, Evangelia; Hellweg, Stefanie; Jolliet, Olivier; Lam, Nicholas L; Margni, Manuele; McKone, Thomas E

    2015-11-01

    Human exposure to indoor pollutant concentrations is receiving increasing interest in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). We address this issue by incorporating an indoor compartment into the USEtox model, as well as by providing recommended parameter values for households in four different regions of the world differing geographically, economically, and socially. With these parameter values, intake fractions and comparative toxicity potentials for indoor emissions of dwellings for different air tightness levels were calculated. The resulting intake fractions for indoor exposure vary by 2 orders of magnitude, due to the variability of ventilation rate, building occupation, and volume. To compare health impacts as a result of indoor exposure with those from outdoor exposure, the indoor exposure characterization factors determined with the modified USEtox model were applied in a case study on cooking in non-OECD countries. This study demonstrates the appropriateness and significance of integrating indoor environments into LCA, which ensures a more holistic account of all exposure environments and allows for a better accountability of health impacts. The model, intake fractions, and characterization factors are made available for use in standard LCA studies via www.usetox.org and in standard LCA software.

  19. An optimal hierarchical decision model for a regional logistics network with environmental impact consideration.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Dezhi; Li, Shuangyan; Qin, Jin

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a new model of simultaneous optimization of three-level logistics decisions, for logistics authorities, logistics operators, and logistics users, for regional logistics network with environmental impact consideration. The proposed model addresses the interaction among the three logistics players in a complete competitive logistics service market with CO2 emission charges. We also explicitly incorporate the impacts of the scale economics of the logistics park and the logistics users' demand elasticity into the model. The logistics authorities aim to maximize the total social welfare of the system, considering the demand of green logistics development by two different methods: optimal location of logistics nodes and charging a CO2 emission tax. Logistics operators are assumed to compete with logistics service fare and frequency, while logistics users minimize their own perceived logistics disutility given logistics operators' service fare and frequency. A heuristic algorithm based on the multinomial logit model is presented for the three-level decision model, and a numerical example is given to illustrate the above optimal model and its algorithm. The proposed model provides a useful tool for modeling competitive logistics services and evaluating logistics policies at the strategic level.

  20. Ganymede - Mixture of Terrains and Large Impact Crater in Uruk Sulcus Region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1996-01-01

    A mixture of terrains studded with a large impact crater is shown in this view of the Uruk Sulcus region of Jupiter's moon Ganymede taken by NASA's Galileo spacecraft during its first flyby of the planet-sized moon on June 27, 1996. The image shows fine details of bright areas that make up about half of the surface of Ganymede. Pock-marked, ancient, heavily cratered terrain is seen at the top; it is cut by younger, line-like structures in the lower left of the image. The bright, circular feature in the lower middle is an impact crater with some dark ejecta superimposed on the linear ridges. These types of relationships revealed by Galileo allow scientists to work out the complex geologic history of Ganymede. In this view, north is to the top and the sun illuminates the surface from the lower left nearly overhead. The area shown, at latitude 10 degrees north, longitude 168 degrees west, is about 59 by 40 kilometers (36 by 25 miles), and the resolution is 74 meters (80 yards) per picture element. The image was taken on June 27 at a range of 7,448 kilometers (4.628 miles). The Jet Propulsion Laboratory manages the Galileo mission for NASA's Office of Space Science.

  1. Impacted foreign bodies in the maxillofacial region-diagnosis and treatment.

    PubMed

    Santos, Thiago de Santana; Melo, Auremir Rocha; de Moraes, Hécio Henrique Araújo; Avelar, Rafael Linard; Becker, Otávio Emmel; Haas, Orion Luiz; de Oliveira, Rogério Belle

    2011-07-01

    Foreign bodies are often encountered by oral and maxillofacial surgeons and may present a diagnostic challenge to the trauma surgeon due to many factors such as the size of the object, the difficult access, and a close anatomic relationship of the foreign body to vital structures. They are usually a result of injuries or operations. Fragments of broken instruments can be left behind and entire teeth or their fragments can be displaced during extraction. The approach to this kind of injury should be sequential and multidisciplinary, beginning with the trauma unit that will provide maintenance of the airways, hemodynamic stabilization, and, but only if necessary, neurologic, ophthalmologic, and vascular evaluation. With a view to illustrating and discussing the diagnosis and treatment of this kind of injury, this study reports impacted foreign bodies in oral and maxillofacial region. The following data were collected: age, sex, race, etiology, occurrence of fracture, anatomic location of the fracture, daytime of the traumatic event, type of the object, signal and symptoms, type of imaging examination used, type of anesthesia, approach, transoperative complication, period between surgery and hospital liberation, and the occurrence of death. Foreign body injuries in the maxillofacial region can place the patient's life at risk, so a correct initial treatment performed by a multidisciplinary team increases the survival of this kind of patient.

  2. Current and potential impacts of mosquitoes and the pathogens they vector in the Pacific region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    LaPointe, Dennis

    2007-01-01

    Mosquitoes and the pathogens they transmit are ubiquitous throughout most of the temperate and tropical regions of the world. The natural and pre-European distribution and diversity of mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases throughout much of the Pacific region, however, depicts a depauperate and relatively benign fauna reinforcing the dream of “paradise regained”. In the central and South Pacific few mosquito species were able to colonize the remotest islands and atolls. Native mosquitoes are limited to a few far-ranging species and island endemics are typically restricted to the genera of Aedes and Culex. Only lymphatic filariasis appears to have been present as an endemic mosquito-borne disease before European contact. In nearby Australia, however, some 242 species of mosquitoes are known to occur and more than 70 arboviruses have been identified (Mackenzie 1999). In this regard Australia is more similar to the rest of the tropic and subtropical world than the smaller islands of Oceania. In our ever-shrinking world of global commerce, military activity and travel, the nature of mosquito-borne disease in the Pacific was bound to change. This paper is a brief summary of introduced mosquitoes in the Pacific and their potential impacts on human and wildlife health.

  3. Forecasting climate change impacts to plant community composition in the Sonoran Desert region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Munson, Seth M.; Webb, Robert H.; Belnap, Jayne; Hubbard, J. Andrew; Swann, Don E.; Rutman, Sue

    2012-01-01

    Hotter and drier conditions projected for the southwestern United States can have a large impact on the abundance and composition of long-lived desert plant species. We used long-term vegetation monitoring results from 39 large plots across four protected sites in the Sonoran Desert region to determine how plant species have responded to past climate variability. This cross-site analysis identified the plant species and functional types susceptible to climate change, the magnitude of their responses, and potential climate thresholds. In the relatively mesic mesquite savanna communities, perennial grasses declined with a decrease in annual precipitation, cacti increased, and there was a reversal of the Prosopis velutina expansion experienced in the 20th century in response to increasing mean annual temperature (MAT). In the more xeric Arizona Upland communities, the dominant leguminous tree, Cercidium microphyllum, declined on hillslopes, and the shrub Fouquieria splendens decreased, especially on south- and west-facing slopes in response to increasing MAT. In the most xeric shrublands, the codominant species Larrea tridentata and its hemiparasite Krameria grayi decreased with a decrease in cool season precipitation and increased aridity, respectively. This regional-scale assessment of plant species response to recent climate variability is critical for forecasting future shifts in plant community composition, structure, and productivity.

  4. Impact of anthropogenic heat release on regional climate in three vast urban agglomerations in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Jinming; Wang, Jun; Yan, Zhongwei

    2014-03-01

    We simulated the impact of anthropogenic heat release (AHR) on the regional climate in three vast city agglomerations in China using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with nested high-resolution modeling. Based on energy consumption and high-quality land use data, we designed two scenarios to represent no-AHR and current-AHR conditions. By comparing the results of the two numerical experiments, changes of surface air temperature and precipitation due to AHR were quantified and analyzed. We concluded that AHR increases the temperature in these urbanized areas by about 0.5°C—1°C, and this increase is more pronounced in winter than in other seasons. The inclusion of AHR enhances the convergence of water vapor over urbanized areas. Together with the warming of the lower troposphere and the enhancement of ascending motions caused by AHR, the average convective available potential energy in urbanized areas is increased. Rainfall amounts in summer over urbanized areas are likely to increase and regional precipitation patterns to be altered to some extent.

  5. Impact of climate change on snow melt driven runoff timing over the Alpine region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coppola, Erika; Raffaele, Francesca; Giorgi, Filippo

    2016-08-01

    We investigate the climate change impact on snowmelt-driven runoff (SDR) over the Alpine region using the output from two Med-CORDEX and two EURO-CORDEX regional climate model projections (RCP8.5 scenario) at two resolutions (12, 50 km) driven by a sub-set of the CMIP5 GCMs. Comparison with the European Water Archive observed runoff dataset (242 stations) over the Alps shows a good performance by the higher resolution models in representing present day SDR, with the lower resolution simulations being less accurate in capturing the SDR timing. In the future projections all the models show a temperature increase of up to 4° by the end of the 21st century throughout the Alps and this leads to an anticipation of SDR timing throughout the year that can span from 1 to 3 months depending on the model horizontal resolution. These timing changes are associated with changes in snow cover modulated by the complex Alpine topography. In fact, model resolution plays a critical role in regulating the magnitude, timing and spatial distribution of the response of snow cover and SDR to warming. We find that the accurate simulation of changes in runoff timing requires a high resolution representation of the Alpine topography, and can be important for water storage regulations concerning energy production, agriculture and domestic use.

  6. Regional Impacts of Climate Change on the Amazon Rainforest: 2080-2100

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cook, K. H.; Vizy, E. K.

    2006-12-01

    A regional climate model with resolution of 60 km is coupled with a potential vegetation model to simulate future climate over South America. The following steps are taken to effectively communicate the results across disciplines and to make them useful to the policy and impacts communities: the simulation is aimed at a particular time period (2081-2100), the climate change results are translated into changes in vegetation distribution, and the results are reported on regional space scales relative to political boundaries. In addition, the model validation in clearly presented to provide perspective on uncertainty for the prognosis. The model reproduces today's climate and vegetation over tropical and subtropical South America accurately. In simulations of the future, the model is forced by the IPCC's A2 scenario of future emissions, which assumes that CO2 emissions continue to grow at essentially today's rate throughout the 21st century, reaching 757 ppmv averaged over 2081-2100. The model is constrained on its lateral boundaries by atmospheric conditions simulated by a global climate model, applied as anomalies to present day conditions, and predicted changes in sea surface temperatures. The extent of the Amazon rainforest is reduced by about 70 per cent in the simulation, and the shrubland (caatinga) vegetation of Brazil's Nordeste region spreads westward and southward well into the continental interior. Bolivia, Paraguay, and Argentina lose all of their rainforest vegetation, and Brazil and Peru lose most of it. The surviving rain forest is concentrated near the equator. Columbia's rainforest survives largely intact and, along the northern coast, Venezuela and French Guiana suffer relatively small reductions. The loss in Guyana and Surinam is 30-50 per cent. Much of the rainforest in the central Amazon north of about 15S is replaced by savanna vegetation, but in southern Bolivia, northern Paraguay, and southern Brazil, grasslands take the place of the

  7. Impact of spectral nudging on regional climate simulation over CORDEX East Asia using WRF

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Jianping; Wang, Shuyu; Niu, Xiaorui; Hui, Pinhong; Zong, Peishu; Wang, Xueyuan

    2016-06-01

    In this study, the impact of the spectral nudging method on regional climate simulation over the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment East Asia (CORDEX-EA) region is investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis, five continuous simulations covering 1989-2007 are conducted by the WRF model, in which four runs adopt the interior spectral nudging with different wavenumbers, nudging variables and nudging coefficients. Model validation shows that WRF has the ability to simulate spatial distributions and temporal variations of the surface climate (air temperature and precipitation) over CORDEX-EA domain. Comparably the spectral nudging technique is effective in improving the model's skill in the following aspects: (1), the simulated biases and root mean square errors of annual mean temperature and precipitation are obviously reduced. The SN3-UVT (spectral nudging with wavenumber 3 in both zonal and meridional directions applied to U, V and T) and SN6 (spectral nudging with wavenumber 6 in both zonal and meridional directions applied to U and V) experiments give the best simulations for temperature and precipitation respectively. The inter-annual and seasonal variances produced by the SN experiments are also closer to the ERA-Interim observation. (2), the application of spectral nudging in WRF is helpful for simulating the extreme temperature and precipitation, and the SN3-UVT simulation shows a clear advantage over the other simulations in depicting both the spatial distributions and inter-annual variances of temperature and precipitation extremes. With the spectral nudging, WRF is able to preserve the variability in the large scale climate information, and therefore adjust the temperature and precipitation variabilities toward the observation.

  8. Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Thermodynamic Profiles on Regional Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Jedlovee, Gary J.

    2010-01-01

    In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles with accuracy comparable to that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model using its three-dimension variational (3DVAR) analysis component (WRF-Var). Quality indicators are used to select only the highest quality temperature and moisture profiles for assimilation in both clear and partly cloudy regions. Separate error characteristics for land and water profiles are also used in the assimilation process. Assimilation results indicate that AIRS profiles produce an analysis closer to in situ observations than the background field. Forecasts from a 37-day case study period in the winter of 2007 show that AIRS profile data can lead to improvements in 6-h cumulative precipitation forecasts due to instability added in the forecast soundings by the AIRS profiles. Additionally, in a convective heavy rainfall event from February 2007, assimilation of AIRS profiles produces a more unstable boundary layer resulting in enhanced updrafts in the model. These updrafts produce a squall line and precipitation totals that more closely reflect ground-based observations than a no AIRS control forecast. The location of available high-quality AIRS profiles ahead of approaching storm systems is found to be of paramount importance to the amount of impact the observations will have on the resulting forecasts.

  9. Impact of burned areas on the northern African seasonal climate from the perspective of regional modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Sales, Fernando; Xue, Yongkang; Okin, Gregory S.

    2015-02-01

    This study investigates the impact of burned areas on the surface energy balance and monthly precipitation in northern Africa as simulated by a state-of-the-art regional model. Mean burned area fraction derived from MODIS date of burning product was implemented in a set of 1-year long WRF-NMM/SSiB2 model simulations. Vegetation cover fraction and LAI were degraded daily based on mean burned area fraction and on the survival rate for each vegetation land cover type. Additionally, ground darkening associated with wildfire-induced ash and charcoal deposition was imposed through lower ground albedo for a period after burning. In general, wildfire-induced vegetation and ground condition deterioration increased mean surface albedo by exposing the brighter bare ground, which in turn caused a decrease in monthly surface net radiation. On average, the wildfire-season albedo increase was approximately 6.3 % over the Sahel. The associated decrease in surface available energy caused a drop in surface sensible heat flux to the atmosphere during the dry months of winter and early spring, which gradually transitioned to a more substantial decrease in surface evapotranspiration in April and May that lessened throughout the rainy season. Overall, post-fire land condition deterioration resulted in a decrease in precipitation over sub-Saharan Africa, associated with the weakening of the West African monsoon progression through the region. A decrease in atmospheric moisture flux convergence was observed in the burned area simulations, which played a dominant role in reducing precipitation in the area, especially in the months preceding the monsoon onset. The areas with the largest precipitation impact were those covered by savannas and rainforests, where annual precipitation decreased by 3.8 and 3.3 %, respectively. The resulting precipitation decrease and vegetation deterioration caused a drop in gross primary productivity in the region, which was strongest in late winter and early

  10. The use of regional advance mitigation planning (RAMP) to integrate transportation infrastructure impacts with sustainability; a perspective from the USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thorne, James H.; Huber, Patrick R.; O'Donoghue, Elizabeth; Santos, Maria J.

    2014-05-01

    Globally, urban areas are expanding, and their regional, spatially cumulative, environmental impacts from transportation projects are not typically assessed. However, incorporation of a Regional Advance Mitigation Planning (RAMP) framework can promote more effective, ecologically sound, and less expensive environmental mitigation. As a demonstration of the first phase of the RAMP framework, we assessed environmental impacts from 181 planned transportation projects in the 19 368 km2 San Francisco Bay Area. We found that 107 road and railroad projects will impact 2411-3490 ha of habitat supporting 30-43 threatened or endangered species. In addition, 1175 ha of impacts to agriculture and native vegetation are expected, as well as 125 crossings of waterways supporting anadromous fish species. The extent of these spatially cumulative impacts shows the need for a regional approach to associated environmental offsets. Many of the impacts were comprised of numerous small projects, where project-by-project mitigation would result in increased transaction costs, land costs, and lost project time. Ecological gains can be made if a regional approach is taken through the avoidance of small-sized reserves and the ability to target parcels for acquisition that fit within conservation planning designs. The methods are straightforward, and can be used in other metropolitan areas.

  11. Impact of oil spill from ship on air quality around coastal regions of Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shon, Zang-Ho; Song, Sang-Keun

    2010-05-01

    Regional air quality around coastal regions, where regular maritime traffic emissions from cargo, other commercial, fishing and military vessels are significantly active, can be affected by their direct emission of primary air pollutants (NOx, SO2, particulate matter (PM), etc.). For instance, harbor traffic exerted an important impact on NO2, SO2, O3, and PM levels. In addition, regional air quality around coastal regions is also affected by oil spill caused by ship accident in the coast. On 7 Dec., 2007, a barge carrying a crane hit the oil tanker MT Hebei Sprit off the west coast of the Republic of Korea, Yellow Sea (approximately 10 km off the coast), at 0700 local time, causing the spill of total estimated 12,547 tons of Iranian heavy (IH) and Kuwait Export (KE) crude oils. Since then, oil began coming on shore late in the night on 7 Dec. More than 150 km of coastline had been identified as being impacted by 17 Dec. Much of the affected area is part of the Taean-gun National Park and the nearest coastal city to spilled area is Taean. On 8 Dec., the flow of oil from the tanker was stopped when the holes were patched. The accident is the worst oil spill in Korea and the spill area is about one-third of the size of the Exxon Valdez oil spill. The short- and long-term effects of oil spill on marine environment have been numerously studied, not on atmospheric environment. In this study, the air quality impact near spilled area by the evaporation of hydrocarbons from the oil spill is studied in detail. The evaporation rates of the volatile fractions of the crude oils released by oil spill were estimated based on their mole fractions of crude oils and mass transfer coefficients. Based on a molecular diffusion process, the flux of spilled oil component (Fivap, mol m-2 s-1) can be expressed as follows: Fivap = Kivap(Civap - C∞vap) (1) where Civap is concentration (mol m-3) of a component i of crude oil vapor in the air at the oil-air interface; C∞vap is the

  12. Forty years of improvements in European air quality: regional policy-industry interactions with global impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crippa, Monica; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Dentener, Frank; Guizzardi, Diego; Sindelarova, Katerina; Muntean, Marilena; Van Dingenen, Rita; Granier, Claire

    2016-03-01

    The EDGARv4.3.1 (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research) global anthropogenic emissions inventory of gaseous (SO2, NOx, CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds and NH3) and particulate (PM10, PM2.5, black and organic carbon) air pollutants for the period 1970-2010 is used to develop retrospective air pollution emissions scenarios to quantify the roles and contributions of changes in energy consumption and efficiency, technology progress and end-of-pipe emission reduction measures and their resulting impact on health and crop yields at European and global scale. The reference EDGARv4.3.1 emissions include observed and reported changes in activity data, fuel consumption and air pollution abatement technologies over the past 4 decades, combined with Tier 1 and region-specific Tier 2 emission factors. Two further retrospective scenarios assess the interplay of policy and industry. The highest emission STAG_TECH scenario assesses the impact of the technology and end-of-pipe reduction measures in the European Union, by considering historical fuel consumption, along with a stagnation of technology with constant emission factors since 1970, and assuming no further abatement measures and improvement imposed by European emission standards. The lowest emission STAG_ENERGY scenario evaluates the impact of increased fuel consumption by considering unchanged energy consumption since the year 1970, but assuming the technological development, end-of-pipe reductions, fuel mix and energy efficiency of 2010. Our scenario analysis focuses on the three most important and most regulated sectors (power generation, manufacturing industry and road transport), which are subject to multi-pollutant European Union Air Quality regulations. Stagnation of technology and air pollution reduction measures at 1970 levels would have led to 129 % (or factor 2.3) higher SO2, 71 % higher NOx and 69 % higher PM2.5 emissions in Europe (EU27), demonstrating the large role that technology has

  13. A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

  14. On the long-term impact of emissions from central European cities on regional air quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huszar, P.; Belda, M.; Halenka, T.

    2016-02-01

    For the purpose of qualifying and quantifying the impact of urban emission from Central European cities on the present-day regional air quality, the regional climate model RegCM4.2 was coupled with the chemistry transport model CAMx, including two-way interactions. A series of simulations was carried out for the 2001-2010 period either with all urban emissions included (base case) or without considering urban emissions. Further, the sensitivity of ozone production to urban emissions was examined by performing reduction experiments with -20 % emission perturbation of NOx and/or non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC). The modeling system's air quality related outputs were evaluated using AirBase, and EMEP surface measurements showed reasonable reproduction of the monthly variation for ozone (O3), but the annual cycle of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) is more biased. In terms of hourly correlations, values achieved for ozone and NO2 are 0.5-0.8 and 0.4-0.6, but SO2 is poorly or not correlated at all with measurements (r around 0.2-0.5). The modeled fine particulates (PM2.5) are usually underestimated, especially in winter, mainly due to underestimation of nitrates and carbonaceous aerosols. European air quality measures were chosen as metrics describing the cities emission impact on regional air pollution. Due to urban emissions, significant ozone titration occurs over cities while over rural areas remote from cities, ozone production is modeled, mainly in terms of number of exceedances and accumulated exceedances over the threshold of 40 ppbv. Urban NOx, SO2 and PM2.5 emissions also significantly contribute to concentrations in the cities themselves (up to 50-70 % for NOx and SO2, and up to 60 % for PM2.5), but the contribution is large over rural areas as well (10-20 %). Although air pollution over cities is largely determined by the local urban emissions, considerable (often a few tens of %) fraction of the concentration is attributable to

  15. On the long term impact of emissions from central European cities on regional air-quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huszar, P.; Belda, M.; Halenka, T.

    2015-11-01

    For the purpose of qualifying and quantifying the impact of urban emission from Central European cities on the present-day regional air-quality, the regional climate model RegCM4.2 was coupled with the chemistry transport model CAMx, including two-way interactions. A series of simulations was carried out for the 2001-2010 period either with all urban emissions included (base case) or without considering urban emissions. Further, the sensitivity of ozone production to urban emissions was examined by performing reduction experiments with -20 % emission perturbation of NOx and/or NMVOC. The validation of the modeling system's air-quality related outputs using AirBase and EMEP surface measurements showed satisfactory reproduction of the monthly variation for ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2). In terms of hourly correlations, reasonable values are achieved for ozone (r around 0.5-0.8) and for NO2 (0.4-0.6), but SO2 is poorly or not correlated at all with measurements (r around 0.2-0.5). The modeled fine particulates (PM2.5) are usually underestimated, especially in winter, mainly due to underestimation of nitrates and carbonaceous aerosols. EC air-quality measures were chosen as metrics describing the cities emission impact on regional air pollution. Due to urban emissions, significant ozone titration occurs over cities while over rural areas remote from cities, ozone production is modeled, mainly in terms of number of exceedances and accumulated exceedances over the threshold of 40 ppbv. Urban NOx, SO2 and PM2.5 emissions also significantly contribute to concentrations in the cities themselves (up to 50-70 % for NOx and SO2, and up to 60 % for PM2.5), but the contribution is large over rural areas as well (10-20 %). Although air pollution over cities is largely determined by the local urban emissions, considerable (often a few tens of %) fraction of the concentration is attributable to other sources from rural areas and minor cities. Further

  16. Global change impact on water resources at the regional scale - a reflection on participatory modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barthel, Roland; Büttner, Hannah; Nickel, Darla; Seidl, Roman

    2015-04-01

    discussion we therefore focus on the following three questions: • Can a stakeholder dialogue be successfully used to support the development of new, complex modelling systems, in particular at the regional scale? • What is the right timing for stakeholder interaction in the case of unclear problem definition - i.e. global (climate) change impact on regions where climate is not (yet) a threat to water or land use related demands and activities? • To what degree can scientists be motivated to carry out participatory research at all? We conclude that the PM process in GD was only partly successful because the project set overambitious goals, including the application of fundamentally new approaches to interdisciplinary science, the use of new modelling technologies, the focus upon and evaluation of potential and therefore characteristically uncertain future problems, including stakeholder demands, and the development of a ready-to-use, user-friendly tool. Furthermore, GD also showed that an externally and professionally moderated stakeholder dialogue is an absolute necessity to achieve successful participation of stakeholders in model development. The modelers themselves neither had the time, the skills and the ambitions to do this. Furthermore, there is a lack of incentives for scientists, particularly natural scientists, to commit to PM activities. Given the fact that the outcomes of PM are supposed to be relevant for societal decision making, this issue needs further attention.

  17. Assessing Sea Level Rise Impacts on the Surficial Aquifer in the Kennedy Space Center Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, H.; Wang, D.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Warnock, A. M.; Hall, C. R.

    2014-12-01

    Global sea level rise in the past century due to climate change has been seen at an average rate of approximately 1.7-2.2 mm per year, with an increasing rate over the next century. The increasing SLR rate poses a severe threat to the low-lying land surface and the shallow groundwater system in the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, resulting in saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding. A three-dimensional groundwater flow and salinity transport model is implemented to investigate and evaluate the extent of floods due to rising water table as well as saltwater intrusion. The SEAWAT model is chosen to solve the variable-density groundwater flow and salinity transport governing equations and simulate the regional-scale spatial and temporal evolution of groundwater level and chloride concentration. The horizontal resolution of the model is 50 m, and the vertical domain includes both the Surficial Aquifer and the Floridan Aquifer. The numerical model is calibrated based on the observed hydraulic head and chloride concentration. The potential impacts of sea level rise on saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding are assessed under various sea level rise scenarios. Based on the simulation results, the potential landward movement of saltwater and freshwater fringe is projected. The existing water supply wells are examined overlaid with the projected salinity distribution map. The projected Surficial Aquifer water tables are overlaid with data of high resolution land surface elevation, land use and land cover, and infrastructure to assess the potential impacts of sea level rise. This study provides useful tools for decision making on ecosystem management, water supply planning, and facility management.

  18. Feeding impacts of ontogenetically migrating copepods on the spring phytoplankton bloom in the Oyashio region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kobari, T.; Inoue, Y.; Nakamura, Y.; Okamura, H.; Ota, T.; Nishibe, Y.; Ichinomiya, M.

    2010-09-01

    We investigated the feeding habits and grazing rates of the ontogenetically migrating copepods in the Oyashio region to evaluate their grazing impacts on the food web during the spring phytoplankton bloom. The bloom was in progress from early to late April, although chlorophyll a concentrations fluctuated considerably with the frequent exchange of different water masses. Biomass of the copepod community reached a maximum in mid-April when late copepodites of Neocalanus cristatus, Neocalanus flemingeri and Eucalanus bungii contributed to the biomass increase. Gut pigment contents of the predominant copepods were much higher during the bloom compared with the levels in March (pre-bloom). The temporal fluctuations were not correlated with those of mean chlorophyll a concentrations in the 0-50 m layer. Feeding experiments indicated that major food items for the copepods were centric diatoms and flagellates. During the period of lower ambient chlorophyll, the copepods changed their heterotrophic prey from naked ciliates to tintinnids. Apparent clearance rates were positive for naked ciliates and negative for heterotrophic nanoplankton, Cryptophyceae and bacteria when chlorophyll was high, suggesting trophic cascade effects from copepod feeding even during the phytoplankton bloom. The carbon demands of the copepod community were estimated to be 156 mgC m -2 day -1 in early March to 797 mgC m -2 day -1 in mid-April. The grazing rates on phytoplankton reached 480 mgC m -2 day -1, equivalent to as much as 28% of primary production. Non-phytoplankton prey supported 40 to 71% of the copepod carbon requirement. These results suggest that the copepod community does not graze the phytoplankton bloom down, but it does have significant impacts on microbial food webs.

  19. Investigating the impact of spaceborne radar blind zone on surface snowfall statistics in polar regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maahn, Maximilian; Burgard, Clara; Crewell, Susanne; Gorodetskaya, Irina; Kneifel, Stefan; Lhermitte, Stef; Van Tricht, Kristof; van Lipzig, Nicole

    2016-04-01

    Currently, global statistics of snowfall are only available from the CloudSat satellite launched in 2006. However, measurements of CloudSat can be only obtained at an altitude of at least 1200 m above ground, because measurements below are contaminated by ground clutter. As a consequence, global estimates of snowfall at the surface have to be estimated from observations at 1200 m above ground. In the presented study, it is investigated how this blind zone impacts snowfall statistics obtained from CloudSat observations in polar regions. For this, 12-months datasets containing observations of a vertically pointing 24 GHz Micro Rain Radar (MRR) are analyzed for three sites: the Belgian Princess Elisabeth station in East-Antarctica, and for Ny-Ålesund as well as Longyearbyen in Svalbard, Norway. Statistical comparison of CloudSat and MRR observations shows that MRRs are suited to study snowfall when reflectivity exceeds -5 dBz. To study the vertical variability of snowfall, MRR radar reflectivity profiles are analyzed with respect to changes in frequency distribution, the number of observed snow events and total precipitation. Results show that the blind zone leads to reflectivity being underestimated by up to 1 dB, the number of events being altered by ±5% and the precipitation amount being underestimated by 9 to 11 percentage points. In order to account for future satellite missions which feature a smaller blind-zone, also the impact of a reduced blind zone of 600 m is analyzed. Even though reducing the blind zone to 600 m leads to better representation of mean reflectivity, it does not improve the bias in event numbers and total precipitation amount.

  20. Differential Impacts of Climate Change on Crops and Agricultural Regions in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, A. N.

    2015-12-01

    As India's farmers and policymakers consider potential adaptation strategies to climate change, some questions loom large: - Which climate variables best explain the variability of crop yields? - How does the vulnerability of crop yields to climate vary regionally? - How are these risks likely to change in the future? While process-based crop modelling has started to answer many of these questions, we believe statistical approaches can complement these in improving our understanding of climate vulnerabilities and appropriate responses. We use yield data collected over three decades for more than ten food crops grown in India along with a variety of statistical approaches to answer the above questions. The ability of climate variables to explain yield variation varies greatly by crop and season, which is expected. Equally important, the ability of models to predict crop yields as well as their coefficients varies greatly by district even for districts which are relatively close to each other and similar in their agricultural practices. We believe these results encourage caution and nuance when making projections about climate impacts on crop yields in the future. Most studies about climate impacts on crop yields focus on a handful of major food crops. By extending our analysis to all the crops with long-term district level data in India as well as two growing seasons we gain a more comprehensive picture. Our results indicate that there is a great deal of variability even at relatively small scales, and that this must be taken into account if projections are to be made useful to policymakers.

  1. Study of Regional Volcanic Impact on the Middle East and North Africa using high-resolution global and regional models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Osipov, Sergey; Dogar, Mohammad; Stenchikov, Georgiy

    2016-04-01

    High-latitude winter warming after strong equatorial volcanic eruptions caused by circulation changes associated with the anomalously positive phase of Arctic Oscillation is a subject of active research during recent decade. But severe winter cooling in the Middle East observed after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption of 1991, although recognized, was not thoroughly investigated. These severe regional climate perturbations in the Middle East cannot be explained by solely radiative volcanic cooling, which suggests that a contribution of forced circulation changes could be important and significant. To better understand the mechanisms of the Middle East climate response and evaluate the contributions of dynamic and radiative effects we conducted a comparative study using Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory global High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) with the effectively "regional-model-resolution" of 25-km and the regional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model focusing on the eruption of Mount Pinatubo on June 15, 1991 followed by a pronounced positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. The WRF model has been configured over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The WRF code has been modified to interactively account for the radiative effect of volcanic aerosols. Both HiRAM and WRF capture the main features of the MENA climate response and show that in winter the dynamic effects in the Middle East prevail the direct radiative cooling from volcanic aerosols.

  2. Possible impacts of a descent into a Grand Solar Minimum on extratropical regional surface climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maycock, A. C.; Ineson, S.; Gray, L. J.; Scaife, A. A.; Lockwood, M. M.

    2012-12-01

    The Sun's output varies on a number of characteristic timescales, the most well-known of which is the approximately 11-year solar cycle. It has been shown that the Sun also exhibits cycles with a period of ~200 years, so-called Grand Solar Cycles. Reconstructions indicate that levels of solar activity have been relatively high for the past ~70 years, and it has been suggested that the Sun might be expected to evolve towards a state of lower output; however, the timescale and extent of such a 'Grand Solar Minimum' event is highly uncertain. This study presents sensitivity experiments with a state-of-the-art climate model to investigate the impact of reaching very low levels of solar output, similar to those thought to have occurred during the Maunder Minimum, by the middle of the 21st century. We investigate the effect of uncertainties in spectral solar irradiance by using both the semi-empirical model of Lean et al., which gives a relatively modest change in the ultraviolet (UV) spectral region and is commonly used to represent solar variability in climate models, as well as the recent measurements from the SORCE satellite, which suggest a much larger change in the UV across the solar cycle for the period 2004-07. Under the assumption of there being a large change in the UV derived from a linear extrapolation of the SORCE data, it is shown that a period of very low solar activity would be associated with a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation index. This signature in the large-scale circulation is associated with changes in regional surface climate, including cooler temperatures across the UK and western Europe. In the experiment which assumes a smaller change in UV irradiance, the extratropical circulation responses in the stratosphere and troposphere are found to be of a consistent sign but smaller in magnitude. This highlights the importance of one possible mechanism for solar-climate interactions, namely the impact of tropical upper stratospheric heating on

  3. An impact assessment of the Child Growth, Development and Care Program in the Caribbean Region of Colombia.

    PubMed

    Padilla, Alcides de J; Trujillo, Juan C

    2015-10-01

    This article aims to assess the impact of the Child Growth, Development and Care Program in the Caribbean region of Colombia by analyzing variables such as maternal childcare practices and indicators of the nutritional status and health of children under the age of five. To this end, the authors used the quasi-experimental technique Propensity Score Matching. Positive impacts included a decrease in acute diarrheal disease, and an increase in immunization and seeking treatment for acute respiratory infection or fever symptoms. However, the program had little influence on chronic and acute malnutrition in the region.

  4. Evaluation of the Impact of AlRS Radiance and Profile Data Assimilation in Partly Cloudy Regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zavodsky, Bradely; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Jedlovec, Gary

    2013-01-01

    Parallel experiments using AIRS L1B and L2 retrieved profiles were run for 29 case study days for early Winter 2011. Forecasts over and downstream regions of low, opaque cloudy regions yield improved T and Z anomaly correlations when non-thinned set of profiles is assimilated instead of radiances. Initial results indicate that GSI does a good job on the whole of determining cloud-free radiances there are some areas coincident with areas of larger profile impact that are misrepresented (compared to MODIS) that may result in reduced analysis impact.

  5. Regional variation in physician adoption of antipsychotics: Impact on US Medicare expenditures

    PubMed Central

    Donohue, Julie M.; Normand, Sharon-Lise T.; Horvitz-Lennon, Marcela; Men, Aiju; Berndt, Ernst R.; Huskamp, Haiden A.

    2016-01-01

    Background Regional variation in US Medicare prescription drug spending is driven by higher prescribing of costly brand-name drugs in some regions. This variation likely arises from differences in the speed of diffusion of newly-approved medications. Second-generation antipsychotics were widely adopted for treatment of severe mental illness and for several off-label uses. Rapid diffusion of new psychiatric drugs likely increases drug spending but its relationship to non-drug spending is unclear. The impact of antipsychotic diffusion on drug and medical spending is of great interest to public payers like Medicare, which finance a majority of mental health spending in the U.S. Aims We examine the association between physician adoption of new antipsychotics and antipsychotic spending and non-drug medical spending among disabled and elderly Medicare enrollees. Methods We linked physician-level data on antipsychotic prescribing from an all-payer dataset (IMS Health's Xponent™) to patient-level data from Medicare. Our physician sample included 16,932 U.S. psychiatrists and primary care providers with ≥10 antipsychotic prescriptions per year from 1997-2011. We constructed a measure of physician adoption of 3 antipsychotics introduced during this period (quetiapine, ziprasidone and aripiprazole) by estimating a shared frailty model of the time to first prescription for each drug. We then assigned physicians to one of 306 U.S. hospital referral regions (HRRs) and measured the average propensity to adopt per region. Using 2010 data for a random sample of 1.6 million Medicare beneficiaries, we identified 138,680 antipsychotic users. A generalized linear model with gamma distribution and log link was used to estimate the effect of region-level adoption propensity on beneficiary-level antipsychotic spending and non-drug medical spending adjusting for patient demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, health status, eligibility category, and whether the antipsychotic was

  6. Cumulative drought and land-use impacts on perennial vegetation across a North American dryland region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Munson, Seth M.; Long, A. Lexine; Wallace, Cynthia; Webb, Robert H.

    2016-01-01

    Question The decline and loss of perennial vegetation in dryland ecosystems due to global change pressures can alter ecosystem properties and initiate land degradation processes. We tracked changes of perennial vegetation using remote sensing to address the question of how prolonged drought and land-use intensification have affected perennial vegetation cover across a desert region in the early 21st century? Location Mojave Desert, southeastern California, southern Nevada, southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, USA. Methods We coupled the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Enhanced Vegetation Index (MODIS-EVI) with ground-based measurements of perennial vegetation cover taken in about 2000 and about 2010. Using the difference between these years, we determined perennial vegetation changes in the early 21st century and related these shifts to climate, soil and landscape properties, and patterns of land use. Results We found a good fit between MODIS-EVI and perennial vegetation cover (2000: R2 = 0.83 and 2010: R2 = 0.74). The southwestern, far southeastern and central Mojave Desert had large declines in perennial vegetation cover in the early 21st century, while the northeastern and southeastern portions of the desert had increases. These changes were explained by 10-yr precipitation anomalies, particularly in the cool season and during extreme dry or wet years. Areas heavily impacted by visitor use or wildfire lost perennial vegetation cover, and vegetation in protected areas increased to a greater degree than in unprotected areas. Conclusions We find that we can extrapolate previously documented declines of perennial plant cover to an entire desert, and demonstrate that prolonged water shortages coupled with land-use intensification create identifiable patterns of vegetation change in dryland regions.

  7. Assimilation of SCIAMACHY total column CO observations: Global and regional analysis of data impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tangborn, Andrew; Stajner, Ivanka; Buchwitz, Michael; Khlystova, Iryna; Pawson, Steven; Burrows, John; Hudman, Rynda; Nedelec, Philippe

    2009-04-01

    Carbon monoxide (CO) total column observations from the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY) on board Envisat-1 are assimilated into the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office constituent assimilation system for the period 1 April to 20 December 2004. The impact of the assimilation on CO distribution is evaluated using independent surface flask observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/ESRL global cooperative air sampling network and Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapor by Airbus In-Service Aircraft (MOZAIC) in situ CO profiles. Assimilation of SCIAMACHY data improves agreement of CO assimilation with both of these data sets on both global and regional scales compared to the free-running model. Regional comparisons with MOZAIC profiles made in western Europe, the northeastern United States, and the Arabian Peninsula show improvements at all three locations in the free troposphere and into the boundary layer over Arabia and the northeastern United States. Comparisons with NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory data improve at about two thirds of the surface observation sites. The systematic model errors related to the uncertainty of CO surface sources and the chemistry of CO losses are investigated through experiments with increased surface CO emissions over the Arabian Peninsula and/or globally reduced hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations. Both model changes decrease mean CO errors at all altitudes in comparison to MOZAIC data over Dubai and Abu Dhabi. In contrast, errors in the assimilated CO are reduced by the increased emissions for pressures ≥800 hPa and by the reduced OH for pressures ≤600 hPa. Our analysis suggests that CO emissions over Dubai in 2004 are more than double those in the 1998 emissions inventory.

  8. Regional economic impacts of current and proposed management alternatives for Don Edwards National Wildlife Refuge

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Richardson, Leslie; Huber, Chris; Koontz, Lynne

    2012-01-01

    The National Wildlife Refuge System Improvement Act of 1997 requires all units of the National Wildlife Refuge System to be managed under a Comprehensive Conservation Plan. The Comprehensive Conservation Plan must describe the desired future conditions of a Refuge and provide long-range guidance and management direction to achieve refuge purposes. The Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge, located at the south end of California's San Francisco Bay and one of seven refuges in the San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge Complex, is in the process of developing a range of management goals, objectives, and strategies for the Comprehensive Conservation Plan. The Comprehensive Conservation Plan must contain an analysis of expected effects associated with current and proposed Refuge management strategies. For Refuge Comprehensive Conservation Plan planning, a regional economic analysis provides a means of estimating how current management (No Action Alternative) and proposed management activities (alternatives) affect the local economy. This type of analysis provides two critical pieces of information: (1) it illustrates the Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge's contribution to the local community, and (2) it can help in determining whether economic effects are or are not a real concern in choosing among management alternatives. This report first presents a description of the local community and economy near the Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge. Next, the methods used to conduct a regional economic impact analysis are described. An analysis of the final Comprehensive Conservation Plan management strategies that could affect stakeholders, residents, and the local economy is then presented. The management activities of economic concern in this analysis are: * Spending in the local community by Refuge visitors; * Refuge personnel salary spending; and * Refuge purchases of goods and services within the local

  9. A regional and global analysis of carbon dioxide physiological forcing and its impact on climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrews, Timothy; Doutriaux-Boucher, Marie; Boucher, Olivier; Forster, Piers M.

    2011-02-01

    An increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration has both a radiative (greenhouse) effect and a physiological effect on climate. The physiological effect forces climate as plant stomata do not open as wide under enhanced CO2 levels and this alters the surface energy balance by reducing the evapotranspiration flux to the atmosphere, a process referred to as `carbon dioxide physiological forcing'. Here the climate impact of the carbon dioxide physiological forcing is isolated using an ensemble of twelve 5-year experiments with the Met Office Hadley Centre HadCM3LC fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model where atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are instantaneously quadrupled and thereafter held constant. Fast responses (within a few months) to carbon dioxide physiological forcing are analyzed at a global and regional scale. Results show a strong influence of the physiological forcing on the land surface energy budget, hydrological cycle and near surface climate. For example, global precipitation rate reduces by ~3% with significant decreases over most land-regions, mainly from reductions to convective rainfall. This fast hydrological response is still evident after 5 years of model integration. Decreased evapotranspiration over land also leads to land surface warming and a drying of near surface air, both of which lead to significant reductions in near surface relative humidity (~6%) and cloud fraction (~3%). Patterns of fast responses consistently show that results are largest in the Amazon and central African forest, and to a lesser extent in the boreal and temperate forest. Carbon dioxide physiological forcing could be a source of uncertainty in many model predicted quantities, such as climate sensitivity, transient climate response and the hydrological sensitivity. These results highlight the importance of including biological components of the Earth system in climate change studies.

  10. Impact of land use changes on surface feedbacks in sudanian region of West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohard, J. M.; Galle, S.; Mamadou, O.; Peugeot, C.; Seghieri, J.; Kounouhewa, B.; Awanou, N. C.

    2014-12-01

    In West Africa, surface atmosphere exchanges have been found to impact both regional and local features of the Monsoon. At local scale the spatial patterns of Evaporative Fraction can drive the trajectories of mesoscale convective systems. Under Sudanian climate a mean of ~80% of the precipitation return to atmosphere through evapotranspiration but this important amount and its dynamics may vary with the vegetation cover. In consequence, any land use or climate changes can lead to modifications on the surface feedbacks and thus on both the atmospheric and the continental water cycle. In West Africa, Sudanian regions are submitted to a ~3% demographical increase per year, which leads to regular deforestation to the benefit of cultivated areas. This study aims at quantifying the changes in evapotranspiration regime caused by such a land use change under Sudanian climate. Within the framework of The AMMA-CATCH observatory, energy and water vapor fluxes were investigated in west Africa since 2007. Herein, a pluri-annual (2007 - 2010) energy budget of a clear forest and a cultivated area located in northern Benin are analysed. Results show that evapotranspiration rates over the sudanian forest are higher than those of cultivated area, because of agricultural practice and water availability for trees. After harvest, the residual vegetation is burned to bring nutriment to soil and to clean the landscape around the villages. Thus, during the dry season, the cultivated areas are bare. At the same time, a significant evapotranspiration is measured over the forest area despite the lack of precipitations. The deep root system of such vegetation allow the trees to get access to water during the dry season. During the rainy season, a significant difference in evapotransiration rates are also observed. These differences lead to a large deficit of water vapor that returns to the atmosphere and will significantly change the continental water cycle when forests will be replaced by

  11. The impact of SLMTA in improving laboratory quality systems in the Caribbean Region

    PubMed Central

    Guevara, Giselle; Gordon, Floris; Irving, Yvette; Whyms, Ismae; Parris, Keith; Beckles, Songee; Maruta, Talkmore; Ndlovu, Nqobile; Albalak, Rachel; Alemnji, George

    2016-01-01

    Background Past efforts to improve laboratory quality systems and to achieve accreditation for better patient care in the Caribbean Region have been slow. Objective To describe the impact of the Strengthening of Laboratory Management Toward Accreditation (SLMTA) training programme and mentorship amongst five clinical laboratories in the Caribbean after 18 months. Method Five national reference laboratories from four countries participated in the SLMTA programme that incorporated classroom teaching and implementation of improvement projects. Mentors were assigned to the laboratories to guide trainees on their improvement projects and to assist in the development of Quality Management Systems (QMS). Audits were conducted at baseline, six months, exit (at 12 months) and post-SLMTA (at 18 months) using the Stepwise Laboratory Quality Improvement Process Towards Accreditation (SLIPTA) checklist to measure changes in implementation of the QMS during the period. At the end of each audit, a comprehensive implementation plan was developed in order to address gaps. Results Baseline audit scores ranged from 19% to 52%, corresponding to 0 stars on the SLIPTA five-star scale. After 18 months, one laboratory reached four stars, two reached three stars and two reached two stars. There was a corresponding decrease in nonconformities and development of over 100 management and technical standard operating procedures in each of the five laboratories. Conclusion The tremendous improvement in these five Caribbean laboratories shows that SLMTA coupled with mentorship is an effective, user-friendly, flexible and customisable approach to the implementation of laboratory QMS. It is recommended that other laboratories in the region consider using the SLMTA training programme as they engage in quality systems improvement and preparation for accreditation. PMID:27066396

  12. Unplanned roads impacts assessment in Phewa Lake watershed, Western region, Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leibundgut, Geoffroy; Sudmeier-Rieux, Karen; Devkota, Sanjaya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Penna, Ivanna; Adhikari, Anu; Khanal, Rajendra

    2015-04-01

    This work describes current research being conducted in the Phewa Lake watershed, near Pokhara in Nepal's Siwaliks/Middle hills, a moist sub-tropical zone with the highest amount of annual rainfall in Nepal (4,500 - 5,000 mm). The watershed lithology is mainly siltstone, sandstones and intensively weathered rocks, highly prone to erosion and shallow landslides (Agrawala et al., 2003). The main purpose of this study is to focus on the impact of unplanned earthen road construction in the Phewa Lake watershed as part of land use changes over 30 years in one of Nepal's most touristic regions. Over the past three decades, the road network has expanded exponentially and a majority of rural earthen roads are often funded by communities themselves, with some government subsidies. They are usually constructed using a local bulldozer contractor with no technical or geological expertise increasing erosion processes, slope instabilities risk and impacts to settlements, forests, water sources, agriculture lands, and infrastructure. Moreover, these human-induced phenomena are being compounded by increasingly intense monsoon rains, likely due to climate change (Petley, 2010). Research methods were interdisciplinary and based on a combination of remote sensing, field observations and discussions with community members. The study compared 30 year-old aerial photos with current high resolution satellite images to correlate changes in land use with erosion and slope instabilities. Secondly, most of the watershed's roads were surveyed in order to inventory and quantify slope instabilities and soil loss events. Using a failure-characteristics grid, their main features were measured (location, size, type and extension of damage areas, etc.) and a GIS data base was created. We then estimated economic impacts of these events in terms of agriculture lands losses and road maintenance, based on field observations and discussions with affected people. Field work investigations have shown that

  13. Impact of regional afforestation on climatic conditions in metropolitan areas: case study of Copenhagen

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stysiak, Aleksander Andrzej; Bergen Jensen, Marina; Mahura, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    Like most other places, European metropolitan areas will face a range of climate-related challenges over the next decades that may influence the nature of urban life across the continent. Under future urbanization and climate change scenarios the well-being and comfort of the urban population might become progressively compromised. In urban areas, the effects of the warming climate will be accelerated by combination of Urban Heat Island effect (UHI) and extreme heat waves. The land cover composition directly influences atmospheric variability, and can either escalate or downscale the projected changes. Vegetation, forest ecosystems in particular, are anticipated to play an important role in modulating local and regional climatic conditions, and to be vital factor in the process of adapting cities to warming climate. This study investigates the impact of forest and land-cover change on formation and development of temperature regimes in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Area (CPH-MA). Potential to modify the UHI effect in CPH-MA is estimated. Using 2009 meteorological data, and up-to-date 2012 high resolution land-cover data we employed the online integrated meteorology-chemistry/aerosols Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model) modeling system to simulate air temperature (at 2 meter height) fields for a selected period in July 2009. Employing research tools (such as METGRAF meteorological software and Geographical Information Systems) we then estimated the influence of different afforestation and urbanization scenarios with new forests being located after the Danish national afforestation plan, after proximity to the city center, after dominating wind characteristics, and urbanization taking place as densification of the existing conurbation. This study showed the difference in temperature up to 3.25°C, and the decrease in the spatial extent of temperature fields up to 68%, depending on the selected scenario. Performed simulations demonstrated

  14. Impacts of the Future Changes in Extreme Events on the Regional Crop Yield in Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, Nazan; Turp, M. Tufan; Ozturk, Tugba; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2016-04-01

    The changes in extreme events caused by climate change have the greatest impact on agricultural sector specifically crop yield. Therefore, it requires a clear understanding of how extreme events affect the crop yield and how it causes high economic losses. In this research, we cover the relationship between extreme events and the crop yield in Turkey for the period of 2020 - 2045 with respect to 1980 - 2005. We focus on the role of those extreme event causing natural disasters on the regional crop yield. This research comprises 2 parts. In the first part, the projection is performed according to the business as usual scenario of IPCC, RCP8.5, via the RegCM4.4 in order to obtain extreme event indices required for the crop assessment. In the second part, the crop yield and the extreme event indices are combined by applying the econometric analysis in order to see the relationship between natural disasters and crop yield. The risks for crop yield caused by the extreme events are estimated and interpreted. This study aims to assess the effect of frequency of expected extreme events on the crop yield at the cropland of Turkey. This research has been supported by Boǧaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 10421.

  15. Impact of surface meteorological observations on RAMS forecast of monsoon weather systems over the Indian region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukhopadhyay, P.; Sanjay, J.; Cotton, W. R.; Singh, S. S.

    2005-09-01

    An attempt has been made to study the impact of surface meteorological observations on the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) simulation of a monsoon depression and two low pressure systems. The surface observations are blended with the GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment (GAME) gridded analyses for these cases. In one set of experiments the model is run in 12 hour nudging mode initially and then in forecast mode using GAME gridded data without incorporating surface observations. In another set of experiments surface data are incorporated to enhance the signature of the systems in the large scale GAME analyses and nudging is applied initially for twelve hours. Subsequently the model is run in forecast mode to see the temporal and spatial evolution of different meteorological features associated with the systems. It is found that inclusion of the surface data has in general enhanced the signature of the systems in the analysis and subsequently shows improvement in the forecast of sea-level pressure, geopotential, wind field, etc. and the associated forecast of heavy rainfall, in particular. To make a quantitative comparison of the predicted rainfall with the observed one, equitable threat score and bias are calculated for different threshold values of rainfall. It is clearly noted that inclusion of surface data has improved the precipitation forecast over the Indian land mass as indicated by the equitable threat score and bias for all the threshold rainfall categories.

  16. Hydrologic variability in dryland regions: impacts on ecosystem dynamics and food security

    PubMed Central

    D'Odorico, Paolo; Bhattachan, Abinash

    2012-01-01

    Research on ecosystem and societal response to global environmental change typically considers the effects of shifts in mean climate conditions. There is, however, some evidence of ongoing changes also in the variance of hydrologic and climate fluctuations. A relatively high interannual variability is a distinctive feature of the hydrologic regime of dryland regions, particularly at the desert margins. Hydrologic variability has an important impact on ecosystem dynamics, food security and societal reliance on ecosystem services in water-limited environments. Here, we investigate some of the current patterns of hydrologic variability in drylands around the world and review the major effects of hydrologic fluctuations on ecosystem resilience, maintenance of biodiversity and food security. We show that random hydrologic fluctuations may enhance the resilience of dryland ecosystems by obliterating bistable deterministic behaviours and threshold-like responses to external drivers. Moreover, by increasing biodiversity and the associated ecosystem redundancy, hydrologic variability can indirectly enhance post-disturbance recovery, i.e. ecosystem resilience. PMID:23045712

  17. Shoreline impacts in the Gulf of Alaska region following the Exxon Valdez oil spill

    SciTech Connect

    Gilfillan, E.S.; Page, D.S.; Suchanek, T.H.; Boehm, P.D.; Harner, E.J.; Sloan, N.A.

    1995-12-31

    Forty-eight sites in the Gulf of Alaska region (GOA-Kodiak Island, Kenai Peninsula, and Alaska Peninsula) were sampled in July/August 1989 to assess the impact of the March 24, 1989, Exxon Valdez oil spill on shoreline chemistry and biological communities hundreds of miles from the spill origin. In a 1990 companion study, 5 of the Kensai sites and 13 of the Kodiak and Alaska Peninsula sites were sampled 16 months after the spill. Oiling levels at each site were estimated visually and/or quantified by chemical analysis. The chemical analyses were performed on sediment and/or rock wipe samples collected with the biological samples. Additional sediment samples were collected for laboratory amphipod toxicity tests. Mussels were also collected and analyzed for hydrocarbon content to assess hydrocarbon bioavailability. Biological investigations at these GOA sites focused on intertidal infauna, epifauna, and macroalgae by means of a variety of common ecological techniques. For rock sites the percentage of hard substratum covered by biota was quantified. At each site, up to 5 biological samples (scrapes of rock surfaces or sediment cores) were collected intertidally along each of 3 transects, spanning tide levels from the high intertidal to mean-lowest-low-water (zero tidal datum). Organisms (down to 1.0 mm in size) from these samples were sorted and identified. Community parameters including organism abundance, species richness, and Shannon diversity were calculated for each sample. 43 refs., 13 figs., 3 tabs.

  18. Impacts of climate change on erosion in humid and dry Mediterranean regions of Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nunes, João Pedro; Marisa Santos, Juliana; Sampaio, Elsa; Corte-Real, João; Moreira, Madalena; Jacinto, Rita; Bernard-Jannin, Léonard

    2014-05-01

    Soils in the Mediterranean regions of Europe are often vulnerable to soil erosion, due to a combination of annual plant cover cycles, centuries of human use, the concentration of rainstorms in a short period of the year, and other factors. Climate change could bring about a warmer and drier climate, limiting vegetation growth while bringing heavier storms during winter. This could eventually lead to higher risks of soil losses and the consequential problems of land degradation and desertification. Project ERLAND, which began in 2009, is assessing these risks for two Mediterranean research catchments in Portugal, with four main goals: (i) collect data to understand hydrological and erosion processes in representative catchments; (ii) use this data to parameterize the SWAT eco-hydrological and erosion model as accurately as possible; (iii) use future socio-economic scenarios to estimate both impacts on climate change and on future land-use practices; and (iv) apply the SWAT model for these scenarios and estimate the consequences for soil erosion rates. The Macieira catchment is in a wet Mediterranean climate region, with high rainfall (c. 1300 mm.y-1) but a distinct summer dry season; erosion processes are associated with periods of sparse cover in autumn in fields with a pasture-corn rotation, but also with forest plantations after clear-cutting and especially after forest fires. The occurrence of a forest fire inside the catchment in 2011 allowed an analysis of the role played by this kind of disturbances on soil erosion. Climate change could bring less erosive rainfall events, but an increase in fire frequency, and therefore a potential shift of erosion from agriculture to forest land-uses. The Guadalupe catchment has a dry Mediterranean climate (rainfall of c. 550 mm.y-1); erosion processes occur mostly in permanent crops (olive trees) and winter cereal fields. Climate change could bring a concentration of rainfall in winter, as well as an increase in the area

  19. Grazing impact of the copepod community in the Oyashio region of the western subarctic Pacific Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Kazutaka; Kuwata, Akira; Saito, Hiroaki; Ide, Keiichiro

    2008-09-01

    The role of copepod grazing on the ecosystem dynamics in the Oyashio region, western subarctic Pacific was investigated during six cruises from June 2001 to June 2002. In situ grazing rates of the copepod community (CGR) were measured by the gut fluorescence method in respect to developmental stages of dominant species. In terms of biomass, more than 80% of the copepod community was dominated by six large calanoid species ( Neocalanus cristatus, Neocalanus flemingeri, Neocalanus plumchrus, Eucalanus bungii, Metridia pacifica and Metridia okhotensis) throughout the year. Resulting from the observed pattern of the interzonal migrating copepods, the CGR in the Oyashio region was divided into three phases, i.e. spring (bloom), summer (post-bloom) and autumn-winter phase. During the spring bloom, late copepodites of the interzonal migrating species, N. cristatus, N. flemingeri and E. bungii appeared in the surface layer (0-50 m) to consume the production of the bloom, resulting in a high grazing rate of the copepod community (7.9 mg Chl m -2 d -1), though its impact on phytoplankton community was low due to the high primary productivity. During the post-bloom period, although the copepod community which was dominated by N. cristatus, N. plumchrus, M. pacifica and newly recruited E. bungii still maintained a high biomass, the CGR was generally lower (1.8-2.6 mg Chl m -2 d -1 for June and August 2001), probably due to the lower availability of phytoplankton. Nevertheless, the highest CGR was also observed during this period (10.5 mg Chl m -2 d -1 in June 2002). The high CGR on autotrophic carbon accounted for 69% of the primary production, suggesting that the copepod community in the Oyashio region potentially terminates the phytoplankton bloom. Abundant occurrence of young E. bungii, which is a characteristic phenomenon in the Oyashio region, was largely responsible for the high grazing pressure in June 2002 suggesting that success of reproduction, growth, and survival

  20. The direct impact of landslides on household income in tropical regions: A case study from the Rwenzori Mountains in Uganda.

    PubMed

    Mertens, K; Jacobs, L; Maes, J; Kabaseke, C; Maertens, M; Poesen, J; Kervyn, M; Vranken, L

    2016-04-15

    Landslides affect millions of people worldwide, but theoretical and empirical studies on the impact of landslides remain scarce, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study proposes and applies a method to estimate the direct impact of landslides on household income and to investigate the presence of specific risk sharing and mitigation strategies towards landslides in a tropical and rural environment. An original cross-sectional household survey is used in combination with geographical data to acquire detailed information on livelihoods and on hazards in the Rwenzori mountains, Uganda. Ordinary least square regressions and probit estimations with village fixed effects are used to estimate the impact of landslides and the presence of mitigation strategies. Geographical information at household level allows to disentangle the direct impact from the indirect effects of landslides. We show that the income of affected households is substantially reduced during the first years after a landslide has occurred. We find that members of recently affected households participate more in wage-employment or in self-employed activities, presumably to address income losses following a landslide. Yet, we see that these jobs do not provide sufficient revenue to compensate for the loss of income from agriculture. Given that landslides cause localized shocks, finding a significant direct impact in our study indicates that no adequate risk sharing mechanisms are in place in the Rwenzori sub-region. These insights are used to derive policy recommendations for alleviating the impact of landslides in the region. By quantifying the direct impact of landslides on household income in an agricultural context in Africa this study draws the attention towards a problem that has been broadly underestimated so far and provides a sound scientific base for disaster risk reduction in the region. Both the methodology and the findings of this research are applicable to other tropical regions with high

  1. The direct impact of landslides on household income in tropical regions: A case study from the Rwenzori Mountains in Uganda.

    PubMed

    Mertens, K; Jacobs, L; Maes, J; Kabaseke, C; Maertens, M; Poesen, J; Kervyn, M; Vranken, L

    2016-04-15

    Landslides affect millions of people worldwide, but theoretical and empirical studies on the impact of landslides remain scarce, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study proposes and applies a method to estimate the direct impact of landslides on household income and to investigate the presence of specific risk sharing and mitigation strategies towards landslides in a tropical and rural environment. An original cross-sectional household survey is used in combination with geographical data to acquire detailed information on livelihoods and on hazards in the Rwenzori mountains, Uganda. Ordinary least square regressions and probit estimations with village fixed effects are used to estimate the impact of landslides and the presence of mitigation strategies. Geographical information at household level allows to disentangle the direct impact from the indirect effects of landslides. We show that the income of affected households is substantially reduced during the first years after a landslide has occurred. We find that members of recently affected households participate more in wage-employment or in self-employed activities, presumably to address income losses following a landslide. Yet, we see that these jobs do not provide sufficient revenue to compensate for the loss of income from agriculture. Given that landslides cause localized shocks, finding a significant direct impact in our study indicates that no adequate risk sharing mechanisms are in place in the Rwenzori sub-region. These insights are used to derive policy recommendations for alleviating the impact of landslides in the region. By quantifying the direct impact of landslides on household income in an agricultural context in Africa this study draws the attention towards a problem that has been broadly underestimated so far and provides a sound scientific base for disaster risk reduction in the region. Both the methodology and the findings of this research are applicable to other tropical regions with high

  2. Integrated assessment of socioeconomic and climate change on the Broads National Park, UK, using the 'Regional Impact Simulator'

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holman, I. P.

    2007-12-01

    The Broads National Park, located in the east of England is the UK's only wetland National Park. Located in a low-lying area of intensive arable agriculture in the driest part of England, it faces many challenges. The 'Regional Impact Simulator' is a user friendly software tool designed to allow UK stakeholders to perform regional integrated assessments of the effects of socio-economic and/or climate change on important sectors and resources. This includes assessment of agriculture, water resources, biodiversity and coastal and river flooding. The development of this regional tool arose from the need to further develop the methods applied in the first local to regional integrated assessment in the UK, which was limited by very long run times, a limited number of simulations, incomplete linkages between models and no allowance for scenario uncertainty. Using the 'Regional Impact Simulator' for a range of socio-economic and emissions scenarios for the 2050s, The Broads in will face a diverse range of challenges related to: 1) Changes in coastal and fluvial flood risk - increased sea level and fluvial flows will increase flood risk for current flood defences; 2) Changing agricultural practices, associated with changing farmer responses to policy, will affect nutrient losses and habitats 3) Changes in water abstraction and discharge - irrigation demand will increase as water resources decrease. However future water availability is a consequence of both societal and policy priorities towards abstraction, and the changing patterns of urbanization and water usage; 4) Changes in habitats especially coastal habitats - saltmarsh will tend to be lost due to sea level rise, although managed realignment may increase stocks at the expense of coastal grazing marshes Socio-economic changes can be as (if not more) important than direct climate change-induced impacts, but the impacts of these changes depend on the choices society makes (e.g. flood defence policy; water demand

  3. Identify the impacts of climate on the regional transportation of haze pollution and inter-cities correspondence within the Yangtze River Delta Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Hang; Huang, Zhongwen; Zhang, Huiling; Tong, Lei

    2016-04-01

    Regional haze pollution has become an important environmental issue in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) area. Aerosol samples from Nanjing, Shanghai, Ningbo and Li'an were collected and analyzed for their chemical compositions and stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios. The routine air monitoring data reported from national atmospheric monitoring networks was also collected to identify the impacts of the subtropical monsoon. Regional PM2.5 pollution was confirmed in the YRD region by significant correlations and similar cyclical characteristics of PM2.5 among study cities. The analysis of backward trajectory reveals that northerly is the prevailing wind from October to March, while the prevailing wind direction is from southeast for the other time. The Granger causality test results indicate that strong causal correlations exist between the cities along the pathways of seasonal monsoons. Variance decomposition of the multiple time series of PM2.5 from study area also indicated the upwind area cities contribute significantly to that of downwind area cities, which suggested the regional transportation of aerosol is governed by the prevailing air mass movement, i.e. the seasonal monsoons. Moreover, the variations of carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios of particle samples from the cities downwind direction demonstrate significant lag behind that of upwind direction city. Eventually, these statistical methodologies can be applied to forecast the daily PM2.5 concentrations in each city on a regional scale, and as well serve as an important reference for the regional air pollutant control during the policy making process.

  4. 77 FR 15450 - Tier 1 Environmental Impact Statement for the Chicago, Illinois, to Omaha, Nebraska, Regional...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-03-15

    ... FRA's Procedures for Considering Environmental Impacts (64 FR 28454) (Environmental Procedures), in... improve passenger ride quality and comfort Promoting environmental benefits: reduced air pollutant emissions, improved land use options, and fewer adverse impacts to surrounding habitat and water...

  5. Land use impacts on lake water quality in Alytus region (Lithuania)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, Paulo; Laukonis, Rymvidas

    2016-04-01

    Land use has important impacts on soils, surface and ground water quality. Urban agricultural areas are an important source of pollutants, which can reach lakes through surface runoff and underground circulation. Human intervention in the landscape is one of the major causes pollution and land degradation, thus it is very important to understand the impacts of and use on environment and if they have some spatial pattern (Pereira et al., 2013, 2015; Brevik et al., 2016). The identification of the spatial pattern of lakes pollution is in Alytus area (Lithuania) is fundamental, since they provide an important range of ecosystem services to local communities, including food and recreational activities. Thus, the degradation of these environments can induce important economic losses. In this context, it is import to identify the areas with high pollutant accumulation and the environmental and human factors responsible for it. The objective of this work is to study identify the amount of some important nutrients resultant from human activities in lake water quality in Alytus region (Lithuania). Alytus region is located in southern part of Lithuania and has an approximate area of 40 km2. Inside this region we analyzed several water quality parameters of 55 lakes, including, pH, electrical conductivity (EC), suspended materials (SM), water clarity (WC) biochemical oxygen demand (BDO), total phosphorous (TP), total Nitrogen (TN), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), as other environmental variables as altitude, lake maximum deep (MD), lake area and land use according Corine land cover classification (CLC2006). Previous to data analysis, data normality and homogeneity of the variances, was assessed with the Shapiro-wilk and Leven's test, respectively. The majority of the data did not respect the Gaussian distribution and the heteroscedasticity, even after a logarithmic, and box-cox transformation. Thus, in this work we used the logarithmic transformed data to do a principal

  6. Land use impacts on lake water quality in Alytus region (Lithuania)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, Paulo; Laukonis, Rymvidas

    2016-04-01

    Land use has important impacts on soils, surface and ground water quality. Urban agricultural areas are an important source of pollutants, which can reach lakes through surface runoff and underground circulation. Human intervention in the landscape is one of the major causes pollution and land degradation, thus it is very important to understand the impacts of and use on environment and if they have some spatial pattern (Pereira et al., 2013, 2015; Brevik et al., 2016). The identification of the spatial pattern of lakes pollution is in Alytus area (Lithuania) is fundamental, since they provide an important range of ecosystem services to local communities, including food and recreational activities. Thus, the degradation of these environments can induce important economic losses. In this context, it is import to identify the areas with high pollutant accumulation and the environmental and human factors responsible for it. The objective of this work is to study identify the amount of some important nutrients resultant from human activities in lake water quality in Alytus region (Lithuania). Alytus region is located in southern part of Lithuania and has an approximate area of 40 km2. Inside this region we analyzed several water quality parameters of 55 lakes, including, pH, electrical conductivity (EC), suspended materials (SM), water clarity (WC) biochemical oxygen demand (BDO), total phosphorous (TP), total Nitrogen (TN), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), as other environmental variables as altitude, lake maximum deep (MD), lake area and land use according Corine land cover classification (CLC2006). Previous to data analysis, data normality and homogeneity of the variances, was assessed with the Shapiro-wilk and Leven's test, respectively. The majority of the data did not respect the Gaussian distribution and the heteroscedasticity, even after a logarithmic, and box-cox transformation. Thus, in this work we used the logarithmic transformed data to do a principal

  7. Pulling Marbles from a Bag: Deducing the Regional Impact History of the SPA Basin from Impact-Melt Rocks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cohen, Barbara A.; Coker, Robert F.

    2010-01-01

    The South Pole Aitken (SPA) basin is the stratigraphically oldest identifiable lunar basin and is therefore one of the most important targets for absolute age-dating to help understand whether ancient lunar bombardment history smoothly declined or was punctuated by a cataclysm. A feasible near-term approach to this problem is to robotically collect a sample from near the center of the basin, where vertical and lateral mixing provided by post-basin impacts ensures that such a sample will be composed of small rock fragments from SPA itself, from local impact craters, and from faraway giant basins. The range of ages, intermediate spikes in the age distribution, and the oldest ages are all part of the definition of the absolute age and impact history recorded within the SPA basin.

  8. A Hydrologic Model Calibration Exercise for Regional Climate Change Impact Assessment of the Conterminous U.S

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oubeidillah, A. A.; Kao, S.; Ashfaq, M.

    2012-12-01

    Numerous studies have investigated the hydrological impacts of climate change in the U.S. using projections from multiple general circulation models downscaled by means of regional climate models, statistical methods, and hydrologic models. Most of these studies focused on a small number of local watersheds without consideration to larger-scale regional climate change impacts, or utilized macro-scale hydrologic models with coarser spatial resolution that are insufficient to characterize the delicate surface hydrology. To improve the results of regional hydro-climate impact assessment, there is a need for better spatial coverage as well as resolution of hydrologic models. The main challenge has been the availability of a comprehensive set of higher resolution calibrated physical parameters. Focusing on the need of regional hydro-climate impact assessment, a data-intensive hydrologic model calibration exercise is performed for over 2000 USGS hydrologic Subbasins (HUC8) in the conterminous U.S. at the resolution of 1/24th degree (~4km). Both USGS WaterWatch monthly runoff and NWIS daily gage observation are used to calibrate the baseline variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. Several statistical matrices are used to evaluate the model performance at each HUC8, including the Pearson correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSEC), bias (B) and the percent bias (PB). The overall results show that the physical models simulate closely the observed values with about sixty four percent of the HUC8s having an average NSEC of 0.95 The model performance was vastly better in wet region basins than they were in arid region. The current baseline VIC model can hardly be improved in arid and desert regions (covering about twenty percent of the HUC8s) where the NSEC values are below zero. Overall, the new 4-km model implementation for the conterminous U.S. shows promising improvement over the ones

  9. The Technological Impact of the E-Rate Program on a School District of the Texas Coastal Bend Region

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vazquez-Cruz, Juan Diego

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to examine the impact of the E-Rate program on students, teachers, administrators, and the technology environment of a public school district in the Texas Gulf Coast Region. The study was conducted through a mixed methods design, utilizing both quantitative and qualitative data collection; the research design was a…

  10. 77 FR 53252 - Tier 1 Environmental Impact Statement for the Chicago, IL, to Detroit-Pontiac, MI, Regional...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-08-31

    ... for the reasonable build alternatives. Identifying, at a corridor planning level, the infrastructure... Federal Railroad Administration Tier 1 Environmental Impact Statement for the Chicago, IL, to Detroit-Pontiac, MI, Regional Passenger Rail System AGENCY: Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), U.S....

  11. An Impact Analysis of Regional Industry--University Interactions: The Case of Industrial PhD Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gustavsson, Linda; Nuur, Cali; Söderlind, Johan

    2016-01-01

    The authors discuss Triple Helix collaborations in the context of regional competitiveness. Through an exploratory case study, they identify and analyse the impact of the establishment of industrial PhD schools for participating industry and universities. The study was conducted in Sweden in 2014 and focuses on three industry--university…

  12. Space-Time Distribution of Tsunami Impact in the European-Meditterranean Region as Results from a New Tsunami Catalogue

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diakogianni, Georgia; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos; Fokaefs, Anna; Papageorgiou, Antonia; Triantafyllou, Ioanna

    2015-04-01

    We have compiled a new tsunami catalogue covering the entire European and Mediterranean (EM) region from pre-historical times up to the present. The catalogue is of increased completeness and homogeneity with respect to previous ones containing more than 370 events with reliability assignment to all the events listed. New historical events were inserted, while revised parameters of historical tsunamigenic earthquakes were extensively adopted particularly for the most active region of the eastern Mediterranean. In association to the catalogue, an inventory of tsunami impact was created with the main attributes being the numbers of people killed and injured, the damage to buildings, vessels, cultivated land and to other property. The inventory includes also a record of the tsunami environmental impact, such as soil erosion, geomorphological changes, boulder replacement and tsunami sediment deposits. Data on the tsunami impact were used to assign tsunami intensity in the 12-point Papadopoulos-Imamura (2001) scale for the majority of the events listed. The tsunami impact was studied as for its space and time distribution. In space, the tsunami impact was mapped in terms of tsunami intensity and impact zones were determined. The time distribution of the tsunami impact was examined for each one of the impact zones. Leaving aside large pre-historical tsunamis, such as the one produced by the LBA or Minoan eruption of Thera (Santorini) volcano, due to the lack of certain impact data, it has been found that the main impact comes from extreme, earthquake tsunamigenic events, such the ones of AD 365 in Crete, 551 in Lebanon, 1303 in Crete, 1755 in Lisbon. However, high impact may also occur from events of lower magnitude, such as the 1908 tsunami in Messina straits and the 1956 tsunami in the South Aegean, which underlines the strong dependence of the impact on the community exposure. Another important finding is that the cumulative impact of relatively moderate or even small

  13. Water Security, Climate Forcings and Public Health Impacts in Emerging Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serman, E. A.; Akanda, A. S.; Craver, V.; Boving, T. B.

    2014-12-01

    Our world is rapidly urbanizing, with more than 80% of world's population is expected to be living in a city by the end of the century. A majority of these nations are rapidly urbanizing due to massive rural-to-urban migratory trends, with rapid development of unplanned urban settlements, or slums, with lack of adequate water or sanitation facilities and other municipal amenities. With global environmental change, natural disasters will expose millions more to drought, floods, and disease epidemics, and existing vulnerabilities will worsen. At the same time, rapid urbanization and fast changing land-use leads to widespread damage of infrastructure by stormwater, especially in lowlands and economically poor areas. The factor that consistently stands out among different cities from both the developed and the developing worlds is that the slums are typically the most vulnerable to water related natural hazards and climatic threats, such as water scarcity and quality issues in drought conditions, or water and sanitation breakdown and stormwater contamination problems. Onsite or decentralized water, wastewater and stormwater treatment as well as point-of-use water treatment options can be an economic, safe, and reliable alternative to conventional large-scale treatment especially, in urban fringes as well as rural areas. These systems can be designed to fit communities in terms of their economic, cultural, environmental, and demographic resources. As part of this study, we develop a database of urban water quality and quantity indices such as with urban land-use, water usage, climate, and socio-economic characteristics in various emerging regions in the world. We analyze past and current data to identify and quantify long-term trends and the impacts of large-scale climatic and anthropogenic changes on urban hydrology and health impacts. We specifically focus on five major cities from distinct groups of countries and geographies: Providence, RI, USA from the developed

  14. Characterizing the impact of urban emissions on regional aerosol particles; airborne measurements during the MEGAPOLI experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freney, E. J.; Sellegri, K.; Canonaco, F.; Colomb, A.; Borbon, A.; Michoud, V.; Doussin, J.-F.; Crumeyrolle, S.; Amarouch, N.; Pichon, J.-M.; Prévôt, A. S. H.; Beekmann, M.; Schwarzenböeck, A.

    2013-09-01

    , and have an impact on aerosol composition on a regional scale. They provide a quantitative measure of this impact in terms of urban plume composition and evolution relative to background aerosol composition.

  15. Evaluation of the impacts of urban development on groundwater storage at the regional scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhaskar, A. S.; Welty, C.; Maxwell, R. M.; Miller, A. J.

    2013-12-01

    Urban development results in a myriad of changes to the natural environment; these changes can give rise to a range of effects on the groundwater system. We have used the integrated subsurface - surface - land surface hydrologic model ParFlow.CLM to evaluate and isolate the impacts of urban development on groundwater storage at the regional scale. We have applied the model to the 13,216 sq km Baltimore metropolitan area at a 500 m horizontal and 5 m vertical discretization, incorporating realistic estimates of anthropogenic fluxes (lawn watering, leakage from water supply pipes, infiltration into sewer pipes, withdrawals for water supply) as well as any available hydrogeologic data. We developed a base-case model, where all urban fluxes and features are incorporated, followed by model scenarios in which urban features were modified one-at-a time to evaluate the effects of each feature. The scenarios presented are: (1) the vegetated city, in which urban land is represented as natural vegetation mosaic in the land surface model; (2) the pervious city, in which low hydraulic conductivity values representing impervious surfaces are replaced with higher soil hydraulic conductivities; (3) the intact-sewer scenario, in which infiltration and inflow (I/I) of groundwater and stormwater into wastewater sewer pipes is removed; and (4) the no-anthropogenic- discharge-and-recharge scenario, in which all anthropogenic input and output fluxes are removed. We compared the subsurface storage of these scenarios to the base case model. We found that the pervious city subsurface storage was slightly greater than the subsurface storage in the base case, which is expected due to additional infiltration associated higher hydraulic conductivity values. The magnitude of this increase in subsurface storage was surprisingly small compared to changes found in other scenarios. The intact-sewer scenario eliminated the large quantity of groundwater infiltrating into wastewater pipes in the

  16. Isotope Hydrology of Arctic Tundra Lakes in a Region Impacted by Permafrost Disturbance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peters, D. L.

    2009-05-01

    A projected "hot spot" of climate warming and development is the Mackenzie River Delta region, Northwest Territories, Canada. The upland tundra areas within the Mackenzie Gas Project development area north of Inuvik contain thousands of small lakes and ponds with poorly defined ephemeral drainage that are underlain by thick permafrost and ice-rich sediments for which the basic water balance controls are not fully understood. Natural retrogressive thaw slumps are common along lakeshores and the rapid drainage of ice-rich permafrost-dammed lakes has been occurring. Ongoing oil/gas exploration activities and infrastructure construction may result in terrain disturbance and localized degradation of permafrost, while climate change may increase the magnitude and frequency of thermokarst processes. These disturbed lakes are believed to act as historical analogues for the future effects of climate change on the hydrology, geochemistry, and aquatic ecology of small tundra lake catchments in the continuous permafrost zone of northwestern Canada. Environment Canada initiated an integrated research program in 2005 with the overall goal of improving our understanding of hydro-ecological processes in freshwater aquatic ecosystems affected by shoreline slumping vs. pristine lakes. Limited catchment studies have examined water-balance parameters (e.g., precipitation, evaporation, and surface flows) for tundra lakes in the development area. Enrichment of oxygen-18 (18O) and deuterium (2H) stable isotopes in surface waters have been shown to be useful indicators of water balance variations in remote permafrost regions of Canada where hydroclimatic information is very limited. In particular, information on evaporation: inflow (E/I) ratios and residence times would provide useful information for estimating appropriate water withdrawals from lakes within the proposed development area. A key question is "does permafrost slumping impact the hydrology of tundra lakes via catchment area

  17. Land use impact on soil quality in eastern Himalayan region of India.

    PubMed

    Singh, A K; Bordoloi, L J; Kumar, Manoj; Hazarika, S; Parmar, Brajendra

    2014-04-01

    Quantitative assessment of soil quality is required to determine the sustainability of land uses in terms of environmental quality and plant productivity. Our objective was to identify the most appropriate soil quality indicators and to evaluate the impact of six most prevalent land use types (natural forestland, cultivated lowland, cultivated upland terrace, shifting cultivation, plantation land, and grassland) on soil quality in eastern Himalayan region of India. We collected 120 soil samples (20 cm depth) and analyzed them for 29 physical, chemical, and biological soil attributes. For selection of soil quality indicators, principal component analysis (PCA) was performed on the measured attributes, which provided four principal components (PC) with eigenvalues >1 and explaining at least 5% of the variance in dataset. The four PCs together explained 92.6% of the total variance. Based on rotated factor loadings of soil attributes, selected indicators were: soil organic carbon (SOC) from PC-1, exchangeable Al from PC-2, silt content from PC-3, and available P and Mn from PC-4. Indicators were transformed into scores (linear scoring method) and soil quality index (SQI) was determined, on a scale of 0-1, using the weighting factors obtained from PCA. SQI rating was the highest for the least-disturbed sites, i.e., natural forestland (0.93) and grassland (0.87), and the lowest for the most intensively cultivated site, i.e., cultivated upland terrace (0.44). Ratings for the other land uses were shifting cultivation (0.60) > cultivated low land (0.57) > plantation land (0.54). Overall contribution (in percent) of the indicators in determination of SQI was in the order: SOC (58%) > exch. Al (17.1%) > available P (8.9%) > available Mn (8.2%) > silt content (7.8%). Results of this study suggest SOC and exch. Al as the two most powerful indicators of soil quality in study area. Thus, organic C and soil acidity management holds the key to improve soil

  18. Characterizing the impact of urban emissions on regional aerosol particles: airborne measurements during the MEGAPOLI experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freney, E. J.; Sellegri, K.; Canonaco, F.; Colomb, A.; Borbon, A.; Michoud, V.; Doussin, J.-F.; Crumeyrolle, S.; Amarouche, N.; Pichon, J.-M.; Bourianne, T.; Gomes, L.; Prevot, A. S. H.; Beekmann, M.; Schwarzenböeck, A.

    2014-02-01

    yields, we were able to predict ~50% of the measured organics. These airborne measurements during the MEGAPOLI experiment show that urban emissions contribute to the formation of OA and have an impact on aerosol composition on a regional scale.

  19. Impact of lake-river connectivity and interflow on the Canadian RCM simulated regional climate and hydrology for Northeast Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huziy, O.; Sushama, L.

    2016-04-01

    Lakes affect regional climate by modulating surface albedo, surface energy, and moisture budgets. This is especially important for regions such as Northeast Canada with approximately 10 % of the landmass covered by lakes, wetlands and rivers. From the regional hydrology perspective, interactions between lakes and rivers are important as streamflow patterns can be significantly modified by lake storage, and similarly lake levels can be modified by streamflows. In this study, using a suite of experiments performed with the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) driven by the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasting ERA40 reanalysis data at the lateral boundaries for the 1979-2010 period, lake-river-atmosphere interactions and their impact on the regional climate/hydrology of north-east Canada are assessed. In these CRCM5 simulations, a one-dimensional lake model represents lakes, while the rivers are modeled using a distributed routing scheme, and one of the simulations includes interflow, i.e. lateral flow of water in the soil layers. Comparison of CRCM5 simulations with and without lakes suggests significant differences in winter/summer precipitation and winter temperature for the study region. CRCM5 simulations performed with and without lake-river interactions suggest improved representation of streamflows when lake storage and routing are taken into account. Adding the interflow process leads to increased streamflows during summer and fall seasons for the majority of the rivers, causing modest changes to land-atmosphere interactions via modified soil moisture. The impact of interflow on streamflow, obtained in this study, is comparable to the impact of lake-atmosphere interactions on streamflows. This study clearly demonstrates the need for realistic representation of lake-river interactions in regional climate models for realistic simulation of regional hydrology, particularly streamflows.

  20. Modeling the Impact of Uganda’s Safe Male Circumcision Program: Implications for Age and Regional Targeting

    PubMed Central

    Kripke, Katharine; Vazzano, Andrea; Kirungi, William; Musinguzi, Joshua; Opio, Alex; Ssempebwa, Rhobbinah; Nakawunde, Susan; Kyobutungi, Sheila; Akao, Juliet N.; Magala, Fred; Mwidu, George; Castor, Delivette

    2016-01-01

    Background Uganda aims to provide safe male circumcision (SMC) to 80% of men ages 15–49 by 2016. To date, only 2 million men have received SMC of the 4.2 million men required. In response to age and regional trends in SMC uptake, the country sought to re-examine its targets with respect to age and subnational region, to assess the program’s progress, and to refine the implementation approach. Methods and Findings The Decision Makers’ Program Planning Tool, Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0), was used in conjunction with incidence projections from the Spectrum/AIDS Impact Module (AIM) to conduct this analysis. Population, births, deaths, and HIV incidence and prevalence were used to populate the model. Baseline male circumcision prevalence was derived from the 2011 AIDS Indicator Survey. Uganda can achieve the most immediate impact on HIV incidence by circumcising men ages 20–34. This group will also require the fewest circumcisions for each HIV infection averted. Focusing on men ages 10–19 will offer the greatest impact over a 15-year period, while focusing on men ages 15–34 offers the most cost-effective strategy over the same period. A regional analysis showed little variation in cost-effectiveness of scaling up SMC across eight regions. Scale-up is cost-saving in all regions. There is geographic variability in program progress, highlighting two regions with low baseline rates of circumcision where additional efforts will be needed. Conclusion Focusing SMC efforts on specific age groups and regions may help to accelerate Uganda’s SMC program progress. Policy makers in Uganda have already used model outputs in planning efforts, proposing males ages 10–34 as a priority group for SMC in the 2014 application to the Global Fund’s new funding model. As scale-up continues, the country should also consider a greater effort to expand SMC in regions with low MC prevalence. PMID:27410234

  1. Impact of plasma sheath on rocket-based E-region ion measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Imtiaz, Nadia; Burchill, Johnathan; Marchand, Richard

    2015-01-01

    We model the particle velocity distribution functions around the entrance window of the Suprathermal Ion Imager (SII). The SII sensor was mounted on a 1 m boom carried by the scientific payload of NASA rocket 36.234 as part of Joule II mission to investigate Joule heating in the E-region ionosphere. The rocket flew above Northern Alaska on 19 January 2007. The payload was spin-stabilized with a period of 1.6 s, giving an apparent rotation of the ion flow velocity in the frame of reference of the payload. The SII sensor is an electrostatic analyzer that measures two dimensional slices of the distribution of the kinetic energies and arrival-angles of low energy ions. The study is concerned with the interpretation of data obtained from the SII sensor. For this purpose, we numerically investigate ram velocity effects on ions velocity distributions in the vicinity of the SII sensor aperture at an altitudes of approximately 150 km. The electrostatic sheath profiles surrounding the SII sensor, boom and payload are calculated numerically with the PIC code PTetra. It is observed that the direction of the ion flow velocity modifies the plasma sheath potential profile. This in turn impacts the velocity distributions of NO+ and ions at the aperture of the particle sensor. The velocity distribution functions at the sensor aperture are calculated by using test-particle modeling. These particle distribution functions are then used to inject particles in the sensor, and calculate the fluxes on the sensor microchannel plate (MCP), from which comparisons with the measurements can be made.

  2. Impact of Water Availability on Regional Power System Operations - A Case Study of ERCOT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levin, T.; Zhou, Z.

    2015-12-01

    Impact of water availability on regional power system operations - A case study of ERCOT Thermal power plants are the largest single source of water withdrawals in the United States, mainly for cooling purposes. The amount of water that is required for cooling is highly dependent on a number of factors including the generation technologies being used, the temperature of the input water, and the total electricity load in the system. During summer months, many of these factors coincide to greatly increase the demand for water in a power system. Electricity demand typically reaches its annual peak when temperatures are high due to increased air conditioning loads. Ambient water temperatures also increase, meaning that greater quantities of water are required to provide the same amount of cooling at thermal generation plants. Finally, water availability is generally constrained due to seasonal effects and potential droughts. This raises concerns that water scarcity may lead to forced de-rating at some power plants during periods of peak demand, resulting in a more vulnerable and less reliable energy system. While increasing attention has recently been given to the inexorable link between water and energy, most commercial power models do not explicitly account for water use when optimizing system operation. We apply the AURORAxmp power modeling software to a case study analysis of the ERCOT power system to determine the water requirements of the system during periods of peak power demand. We then analyze water availability by location and time to identify potential supply shortages, which may reduce actual power generation availability. These data are fed back into the power systems model and specific generation units are de-rated as necessitated by water constraints. We then analyze these results to determine how the optimal generation mix, system reliability, and wholesale electricity prices may be affected by when the ERCOT power system is operated under water

  3. Impact of climate change on Vea Catchment and irrigation scheme in Upper East Region of Ghana

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Limantol, A. M.; Afouda, A.; Lenartz, B.; Agyare, W. A.

    2015-12-01

    The study assessed the future impact of climate change (CC) on water resources availability in the Vea catchment of the Upper East of Ghana for irrigated agriculture. A questionnaire survey targeting farmers with at least 30 years of farming experience in the area was conducted in 6 of the 11 agricultural extension areas (EAs) in the catchment (305 km2). Data on perception about CC, adaptation measures and barriers were captured by the questionnaire. Focus group discussions were also conducted in each of the 6 selected EAs. Additionally, 8 stakeholder institutions were interviewed. Climatic data over a period of 1972 to 2012 from four stations were evaluated. Future climate simulations from 16 Regional Climate Models were used to predict future streamflow with IHACRES runoff model. The WEAP model was used to assess future water availability in two future time slices, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. About 89.5% of 466 questioned farmers believe that temperature increased over the past 30 years, while over 94% of farmers believe that amount of rainfall; duration, intensity and rainy days decreased. Over 96% of farmers believe that their farms are extremely vulnerable to decreased rainfall, droughts and changed timing of rainfall. While analysis of climatic data shows rising trend in temperature, no long-term trend and no variability changes in both annual and monthly rainfall amounts were evident. High evapotranspiration due to rising temperature may have triggered the farmers' perception about rainfall trend and droughts in the area. Several measures such as cropping of new varieties, changing farm locations and use of more fertilizer have been employed by farmers to adjust to CC. It was found that CC could cause severe shortfall in water availability for irrigation and domestic supply in the coming decades. Government needs to assist farmers with alternative irrigation schemes and drought resistant crops in order to sustain livelihoods of farmers on the long run.

  4. The economic and fiscal impact of aging retirees on a small rural region.

    PubMed

    Stallmann, J I; Deller, S C; Shields, M

    1999-10-01

    The literature on the economic and fiscal impacts of in-migrating retirees on rural communities tends to concentrate on the younger, more affluent newly retired. This article addresses an issue not systematically addressed: the impacts on communities as these retirees age. Households that vary by age have different income levels and expenditure patterns. A county-level, conjoined input-output/econometrics simulation model is used to assess the impacts of an aging rural population. As hypothesized, the magnitude and nature of impacts is in direct proportion to relative household size and income level. The increased local government expenditures are covered by the increased revenues, even as retirees age.

  5. The Economic Impact of Eight Research Universities on the Boston Region

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simha, O. Robert

    2005-01-01

    The greater Boston region's eight research universities play a key role in the region's economic health and welfare. They are magnets for research and development talent and for billions of dollars in investment. These institutions contribute $7.4 billion dollars to the regional economy, jobs for about 50,000 university employees and 37,000…

  6. Regional variations in cancer survival: Impact of tumour stage, socioeconomic status, comorbidity and type of treatment in Norway.

    PubMed

    Skyrud, Katrine Damgaard; Bray, Freddie; Eriksen, Morten Tandberg; Nilssen, Yngvar; Møller, Bjørn

    2016-05-01

    Cancer survival varies by place of residence, but it remains uncertain whether this reflects differences in tumour, patient and treatment characteristics (including tumour stage, indicators of socioeconomic status (SES), comorbidity and information on received surgery and radiotherapy) or possibly regional differences in the quality of delivered health care. National population-based data from the Cancer Registry of Norway were used to identify cancer patients diagnosed in 2002-2011 (n = 258,675). We investigated survival from any type of cancer (all cancer sites combined), as well as for the six most common cancers. The effect of adjusting for prognostic factors on regional variations in cancer survival was examined by calculating the mean deviation, defined by the mean absolute deviation of the relative excess risks across health services regions. For prostate cancer, the mean deviation across regions was 1.78 when adjusting for age and sex only, but decreased to 1.27 after further adjustment for tumour stage. For breast cancer, the corresponding mean deviations were 1.34 and 1.27. Additional adjustment for other prognostic factors did not materially change the regional variation in any of the other sites. Adjustment for tumour stage explained most of the regional variations in prostate cancer survival, but had little impact for other sites. Unexplained regional variations after adjusting for tumour stage, SES indicators, comorbidity and type of treatment in Norway may be related to regional inequalities in the quality of cancer care.

  7. Can Crop Models Simulate the ENSO Impacts on Regional Corn Yield in U.s. Corn Belt?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niyogi, D. S.; Liu, X.; Andresen, J.; Jain, A. K.; Kumar, A.; Kellner, O.; Elias, A.

    2013-12-01

    In this paper, we seek to answer two questions: 1. Whether climate variability/ ENSO events impact the corn yield in U.S. Corn Belt?; and 2.Can crop models capture these impacts?. First, we evaluated the relationships between ENSO events and regional corn yield in the U.S Corn Belt, by taking data from 18 representative crop reporting districts for a 30 year period (1981-2010). These data were compiled as part of a large multiscale NIFA project titled U2U that aims at making Climate Information Useful to Usable. We clustered the data for different ENSO phases and performed statistical analysis to understand the impacts on corn yield. The detrended observed data indicate that El Niño events have positive impact on corn yields while La Niña events have slightly negative impact. These results are statistically significant at 0.05 level. To investigate whether crop models can capture the impacts of El Niño / La Niña; we compared the yields from three different crop models of varying complexity (Hybrid Maize; DSSAT; and ISAM) with default/ common agronomic and onsite meteorological input. Simulated yields show similar pattern as seen in the observed data: higher yield for El Niño years, and lower yields for the La Niña years. However, we also found MAE (Mean absolute error) of simulations in El Niño years are higher than for the La Niña years and Neutral years. To understand whether the performance can be enhanced by providing regional climatology, hydroclimatological, or agronomic information - we conducted additional experiments with the Hybrid Maize models involving- (i) use of onsite versus regional reanalysis data - the hypothesis being that even if the onsite data may have limited ENSO signature; the reanalysis data will have a much stronger ENSO feedback embedded within; (ii) use of actual planting date versus the default value used in the crop models - to understand if the year to year agronomic practice might influence or improve the response to capture

  8. Assessment of the Impacts of Hydraulic Fracturing at Bakken on Regional Water Resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Z.; Lin, T.; Lim, S.; Borders, M.

    2015-12-01

    Unconventional oil production at the Bakken Shale of western North Dakota increased more than ten-fold from 2008 to 2014. Although unconventional oil production uses less water than conventional oil production per unit of energy, the cumulative water needs for unconventional oil production due to multiple drilling and fracturing operations may be locally or temporally significant. We collected and analyzed the data for a total of 8453 horizontal wells developed at Bakken in western North Dakota during 2007-2014. The hydraulic fracturing activities mainly occurred in a core area of four counties, including Dunn, McKenzie, Mountrail, and Williams. The annual total water used for hydraulic fracking in western North Dakota increased from 302 ac-ft in 2007 to 21,605 ac-ft in 2014, by more than 70 times in 8 years. The four-county core area accounted for about 90% of total hydraulic fracturing water use in western North Dakota. Compared to the total water uses of all types, hydraulic fracturing water use in the four-county core area accounted for 0.7% in 2007 and 43.1% in 2014. Statewide, this percentage increased from 0.1% to 6.1% in the same time period. As horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies matured for unconventional oil development at Bakken, the total depth and the total length of laterals per well seemed to reach an optimal value in the last four years (2011-2014). However, the number of fracturing stages and the volume of fracking water used per completion are still on the rise. The average water use per well increased from about 1.7 ac-ft in 2007 to 11.4 ac-ft in 2014. Correspondingly, the water intensity (volume of fracking water used per foot of laterals) increased from 67 gallon/ft in 2007 to about 372 gallon/ft 2014. The results helped us better understand the environmental impacts of hydraulic fracturing at Bakken and better manage the water resources in the region.

  9. Environmental Impact Assessment of Shrimp Culture Practice in Southwest Coastal Region of Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Islam, M. M.; Rouf, M. A.; Hambrey, J.

    2008-12-01

    The rapid unplanned expansion of coastal aquaculture in Bangladesh poses risks in degrading environment. The unsustainable aquaculture practices are suspected to impart significant nutrient load to the ecosystem. Nevertheless, shrimp production is very less and susceptible to sever mortality. For this, the study aimed to understand the management practices and nutrient flux from some represented shrimp ponds in southwest coastal region of Bangladesh. A comprehensive study from 2002 to 2004 was done in an aquatic system comprising a river (Semi diurnal tidal system), a canal and 10 shrimp ponds along with wider area survey to verify the issues under a DFID-funded research project involving Nautilus Consultants Ltd. (UK). In the study area (Dumuria under the district Khulna) shrimp culture practices were mostly improved extensive. Shrimp were being produced without proper pond preparation, fry nursing, stocking or feed management due to lack of technical somehow and the risks involved with higher levels of investment. Consequently production rates were very low, averaging only 191 Kg/ha. Very high mortality of shrimp was reported in some of the farms using shallow ponds immediately after heavy rainfall. This may due to the sudden fluctuation of water pH and/or water temperature and salinity. The water quality in shrimp ponds during grow out period was in acceptable range except lower trend of DO and ammonia nitrogen. Year round water quality observations indicated that there were no major differences among the river, canal and pond water that might be due to the high water flushing rate (468%). The nutrient dynamics estimation indicates that 48.7 kg/ha/cycle of nitrogen and 28.96 kg/ha/cycle of phosphorus were added to the pond as an input mostly from fertilizer and feed. Among the inputs, only 33.4% of nitrogen and 6% of phosphorus were removed as harvested form. A large portion, 39.1% N and 92% P were remained in the sediments and unaccounted for. Average intake of

  10. Impacts of anthropogenic forcing on regional climate simulation for CORDEX-East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Song Yee; Kang, Hyun Suk; Hyun, Yu Kyung

    2015-04-01

    Impacts of greenhouse gas and aerosol on climate change are crucial, so that it is trivial for CMIP models to consider anthropogenic forcing for current climate simulations and future projection as well. Meanwhile, for regional climate models, it is still ambiguous if those forcings are duplicated or not, since the large-scale information is provided from the GCM models through the lateral boundary condition. To answer this question, four experiments using the HadGEM3-RA were conducted within the CORDEX framework for the East Asia domain, which are defined as FIXF (Fixed forcing experiment), GHGS (Greenhouse gases forcing only on the FIXF), AERO (Aerosol forcing only on the FIXF), and ALL (Both forcings on the FIXF) experiments. All experiments were driven by the same GCM forcing, i.e., HadGEM2-AO. Simulation results for the current (27 years for 1979-2005) and future (30 years for 2071-2100) climate were analyzed. FIXF experiment simulated significant cold biases near the northwestern China and Mongolia. Compared to results from the FIXF, those from the ALL and AERO were better, particularly for the temperature in northwestern China and for the precipitation in southern China, Indonesia and northwestern Pacific. Reduced cold bias in northwestern China is highly associated with the aerosol forcing, and marginally associated with the greenhouse gases forcing. As a result, temperature simulated by ALL experiment shows less bias than any other experiments. In the future, surface air temperature was projected stronger in ALL than FIXF experiment in late 21st century. Especially, based on the future projection from the ALL experiment, increase in domain-averaged surface air temperature is about 3.0oC (4.2oC) under the RCP 4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. In future change of precipitation, regardless of forcing experiments, annual mean precipitation over maritime continent and northwestern Pacific are expected to increase. And percent change in annual mean precipitation of ALL

  11. The geomorphic impact of catastrophic glacier ice loss in mountain regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Evans, S. G.

    2006-12-01

    Perhaps the most dramatic manifestation of global warming is catastrophic glacier ice loss in mountain regions. The geomorphic impact of this process was first outlined by Evans and Clague in 1994 and includes mountain slope instability, glacier avalanching, the formation and failure of moraine dammed lakes, and the formation and failure of ice dammed lakes. The present paper is an update of the 1994 publication and has three components. First, a global review of recent glacier-related geomorphic events is undertaken. Second, an analysis of two cases from the Coast Mountains of British Columbia - the 1975 Devastation Glacier landslide and the 1983 Nostetuko Lake outburst resulting from the failure of a moraine dam illustrates the interaction of glacier ice loss and related geomorphic events. At Devastation Glacier, approximately 13 M m3 of altered Quaternary volcanic rock and glacier ice was lost from the west flank of Pylon Peak in the Mount Meager volcanic complex. The events were initiated by a catastrophic rockslide, involving altered Quaternary pyroclastic rocks, which continued down Devastation Creek valley as a high velocity debris avalanche. The overall length of the slide path was 7 km and the vertical height of the path was 1220 m yielding a fahrboschung of 10°. Other large landslides occurred in Devastation Creek valley in 1931 and 1947. Stability analysis of the initial failure shows that the 1975 rockslide was the result of a complex history of glacial erosion, loading and unloading of the toe of the slide mass caused by the Little Ice Age advance and subsequent retreat of Devastation Glacier. The shearing resistance along the base of the rockslide mass was reduced prior to 1975 by substantial previous slope displacements related to glacial ice loss. Some of this displacement is likely to have occurred as subglacial slope deformation since ice fall and crevasse patterns suggest the presence of slide like shearing displacements below the base of

  12. Regional variability in dust-on-snow processes and impacts in the Upper Colorado River Basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Skiles, S. McKenzie; Painter, Thomas H.; Belnap, Jayne; Holland, Lacey; Reynolds, Richard; Goldstein, Harland; Lin, J.

    2015-01-01

    Dust deposition onto mountain snow cover in the Upper Colorado River Basin frequently occurs in the spring when wind speeds and dust emission peaks on the nearby Colorado Plateau. Dust loading has increased since the intensive settlement in the western USA in the mid 1880s. The effects of dust-on-snow have been well studied at Senator Beck Basin Study Area (SBBSA) in the San Juan Mountains, CO, the first high-altitude area of contact for predominantly southwesterly winds transporting dust from the southern Colorado Plateau. To capture variability in dust transport from the broader Colorado Plateau and dust deposition across a larger area of the Colorado River water sources, an additional study plot was established in 2009 on Grand Mesa, 150 km to the north of SBBSA in west central, CO. Here, we compare the 4-year (2010–2013) dust source, deposition, and radiative forcing records at Grand Mesa Study Plot (GMSP) and Swamp Angel Study Plot (SASP), SBBSA's subalpine study plot. The study plots have similar site elevations/environments and differ mainly in the amount of dust deposited and ensuing impacts. At SASP, end of year dust concentrations ranged from 0.83 mg g−1 to 4.80 mg g−1, and daily mean spring dust radiative forcing ranged from 50–65 W m−2, advancing melt by 24–49 days. At GMSP, which received 1.0 mg g−1 less dust per season on average, spring radiative forcings of 32–50 W m−2 advanced melt by 15–30 days. Remote sensing imagery showed that observed dust events were frequently associated with dust emission from the southern Colorado Plateau. Dust from these sources generally passed south of GMSP, and back trajectory footprints modelled for observed dust events were commonly more westerly and northerly for GMSP relative to SASP. These factors suggest that although the southern Colorado Plateau contains important dust sources, dust contributions from other dust sources contribute to dust loading in this region

  13. Global Impacts and Regional Actions: Preparing for the 1997-98 El Niño.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buizer, James L.; Foster, Josh; Lund, David

    2000-09-01

    It has been estimated that severe El Niño-related flooding and droughts in Africa, Latin America, North America, and Southeast Asia resulted in more than 22 000 lives lost and in excess of $36 billion in damages during 1997-98. As one of the most severe events this century, the 1997-98 El Niño was unique not only in terms of physical magnitude, but also in terms of human response. This response was made possible by recent advances in climate-observing and forecasting systems, creation and dissemination of forecast information by institutions such as the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, and individuals in climate-sensitive sectors willing to act on forecast information by incorporating it into their decision-making. The supporting link between the forecasts and their practical application was a product of efforts by several national and international organizations, and a primary focus of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Office of Global Programs (NOAA/OGP).NOAA/OGP over the last decade has supported pilot projects in Latin America, the Caribbean, the South Pacific, Southeast Asia, and Africa to improve transfer of forecast information to climate sensitive sectors, study linkages between climate and human health, and distribute climate information products in certain areas. Working with domestic and international partners, NOAA/OGP helped organize a total of 11 Climate Outlook Fora around the world during the 1997-98 El Niño. At each Outlook Forum, climatologists and meteorologists created regional, consensus-based, seasonal precipitation forecasts and representatives from climate-sensitive sectors discussed options for applying forecast information. Additional ongoing activities during 1997-98 included research programs focused on the social and economic impacts of climate change and the regional manifestations of global-scale climate variations and their effect on

  14. The Beaverhead impact structure, SW Montana and Idaho: Implications for the regional geology of the western U.S.

    SciTech Connect

    Fiske, P.S.; Hargaves, R.B.

    1994-03-17

    The Beaverhead impact structure in SW Montana and Idaho is an allochthonous fragment of a large impact structure ({approximately} 100 km diameter) that was transported some distance eastward during the Cretaceous Sevier orogeny. It is the first tectonic fragment of a large impact structure identified in the geologic record. The present evidence for impact consists of shatter cones, pseudotachylites, and planar deformation features in quartz. The age of the impact is not well constrained but is estimated to be Neoproterozoic to Cambrian (1000-500 Ma). The Beaverhead impact event must have created other features that may be preserved, elsewhere in western Montana and Idaho. These include proximal and distal ejecta (which may be misinterpreted as diamictites and/or tuff horizons) and other fragments of the crater floor containing shatter cones and pseudotachylite. A large circular gravity, magnetic and topographic anomaly, which could be the root of the impact structure, has been identified near Challis, Idaho. An enigmatic lithic tuff, identified in drill cores from the Challis area and an intraformational quartzite breccia in the Leaton Gulch area may be impact-related deposits, but no definitive evidence of shock metamorphism has been observed in these materials. The discovery of more pieces of the Beaverhead puzzle, as well as the recognition of other large impacts in the geologic record, are likely once the regional geologic community grows to accept the incidence of such events and becomes more familiar with the features of shock metamorphism in the field. To that end, the community of geologists in this area should integrate the Beaverhead structure into their research and teaching curriculum.

  15. Climate change impacts on water availability: developing regional scenarios for agriculture of the Former Soviet Union countries of Central Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirilenko, A.; Dronin, N.

    2010-12-01

    Water is the major factor, limiting agriculture of the five Former Soviet Union (FSU) of Central Asia. Elevated topography prevents moist and warm air from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans from entering the region.With exception of Kazakhstan, agriculture is generally restricted to oases and irrigated lands along the major rivers and canals. Availability of water for irrigation is the major factor constraining agriculture in the region, and conflicts over water are not infrequent. The current water crisis in the region is largely due to human activity; however the region is also strongly impacted by the climate. In multiple locations, planned and autonomous adaptations to climate change have already resulted in changes in agriculture, such as a dramatic increase in irrigation, or shift in crops towards the ones better suited for warmer and dryer climate; however, it is hard to differentiate between the effects of overall management improvement and the avoidance of climate-related losses. Climate change will contribute to water problems, escalating irrigation demand during the drought period, and increasing water loss with evaporation. The future of the countries of the Aral Sea basin then depends on both the regional scenario of water management policy and a global scenario of climate change, and is integrated with global socioeconomic scenarios. We formulate a set of regional policy scenarios (“Business as Usual”, “Falling Behind” and “Closing the Gap”) and demonstrate how each of them corresponds to IPCC SRES scenarios, the latter used as an input to the General Circulation Models (GCMs). Then we discuss the relative effectiveness of the introduced scenarios for mitigating water problems in the region, taking into account the adaptation through changing water demand for agriculture. Finally, we introduce the results of multimodel analysis of GCM climate projections, especially in relation to the change in precipitation and frequency of droughts, and

  16. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Antle, J. M.; Elliott, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIP's community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPs/SSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate change's impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIP's 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  17. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John

    2015-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  18. Impacts of Global Climate Change and Emissions on Regional Ozone and Fine Particulate Matter Concentrations over United States

    SciTech Connect

    Tagaris, Efthimios; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Liao, Kuo-Jen; Leung, Lai R.; Woo, Jung-Hun; He, Shan; Amar, Praveen; Russell, Armistead G.

    2007-07-31

    Simulated future summers (i.e., 2049-2051) and annual (i.e., 2050) average regional O 3 and PM2.5 concentrations over North America are compared with historic (i.e., 2000-2002 summers and all of 2001) levels to investigate the potential impacts of global climate change on regional air quality. Meteorological inputs to the CMAQ chemical transport model are developed by downscaling the GISS Global Climate Model simulations using an MM5-based regional climate model. Future-year emissions for North America are developed by growing the US EPA CAIR inventory, Mexican and Canadian emissions and by using the IMAGE model with the IPCC A1B emissions scenario that is also used in projecting future climate. Reductions of more than 50% in NOX and SO2 emissions are forecast. The impacts of global climate change alone on regional air quality are small compared to impacts from emission control-related reductions in the US and Canada. The combined effect of climate change and emission reductions lead to a 20% decrease (regionally varying from -11% to -28% regionally) in the mean summer maximum daily 8-hr ozone levels (M8hO3) over the US, -8% over Canada and -10% over Northern Mexico. The mean annual PM2.5 concentrations are estimated to be 23% lower (varies from -9% to -32%) over the US, -7% and -15% over Western and Eastern Canada, respectively and -25% over Northern Mexico. Major reductions are expected in sulfate, nitrate and ammonium fractions of annually-averaged PM2.5 for all sub-regions. The limited reduction in organic carbon over the US and Northern Mexico and the higher concentrations over Canada suggests that organic carbon will be the dominant component of PM2.5 mass over most of the continent in the future. Regionally, the Eastern US benefits more than the rest of the regions from reductions in both M8hO3 and PM2.5, due to both spatial variations in the meteorological and emissions changes. Reduction in the higher M8hO3 concentrations is also estimated for all sub-regions

  19. Local and Regional Impacts of Pollution on Coral Reefs along the Thousand Islands North of the Megacity Jakarta, Indonesia.

    PubMed

    Baum, Gunilla; Januar, Hedi I; Ferse, Sebastian C A; Kunzmann, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    Worldwide, coral reefs are challenged by multiple stressors due to growing urbanization, industrialization and coastal development. Coral reefs along the Thousand Islands off Jakarta, one of the largest megacities worldwide, have degraded dramatically over recent decades. The shift and decline in coral cover and composition has been extensively studied with a focus on large-scale gradients (i.e. regional drivers), however special focus on local drivers in shaping spatial community composition is still lacking. Here, the spatial impact of anthropogenic stressors on local and regional scales on coral reefs north of Jakarta was investigated. Results indicate that the direct impact of Jakarta is mainly restricted to inshore reefs, separating reefs in Jakarta Bay from reefs along the Thousand Islands further north. A spatial patchwork of differentially degraded reefs is present along the islands as a result of localized anthropogenic effects rather than regional gradients. Pollution is the main anthropogenic stressor, with over 80% of variation in benthic community composition driven by sedimentation rate, NO2, PO4 and Chlorophyll a. Thus, the spatial structure of reefs is directly related to intense anthropogenic pressure from local as well as regional sources. Therefore, improved spatial management that accounts for both local and regional stressors is needed for effective marine conservation.

  20. Local and Regional Impacts of Pollution on Coral Reefs along the Thousand Islands North of the Megacity Jakarta, Indonesia

    PubMed Central

    Baum, Gunilla; Januar, Hedi I.; Ferse, Sebastian C. A.; Kunzmann, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    Worldwide, coral reefs are challenged by multiple stressors due to growing urbanization, industrialization and coastal development. Coral reefs along the Thousand Islands off Jakarta, one of the largest megacities worldwide, have degraded dramatically over recent decades. The shift and decline in coral cover and composition has been extensively studied with a focus on large-scale gradients (i.e. regional drivers), however special focus on local drivers in shaping spatial community composition is still lacking. Here, the spatial impact of anthropogenic stressors on local and regional scales on coral reefs north of Jakarta was investigated. Results indicate that the direct impact of Jakarta is mainly restricted to inshore reefs, separating reefs in Jakarta Bay from reefs along the Thousand Islands further north. A spatial patchwork of differentially degraded reefs is present along the islands as a result of localized anthropogenic effects rather than regional gradients. Pollution is the main anthropogenic stressor, with over 80% of variation in benthic community composition driven by sedimentation rate, NO2, PO4 and Chlorophyll a. Thus, the spatial structure of reefs is directly related to intense anthropogenic pressure from local as well as regional sources. Therefore, improved spatial management that accounts for both local and regional stressors is needed for effective marine conservation. PMID:26378910

  1. The sustainable water-energy nexus: Life-cycle impacts and feasibility of regional energy and water supply scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dale, Alexander T.

    Water and energy are critical, interdependent, and regional resources, and effective planning and policies around which sources to use requires combining information on environmental impacts, cost, and availability. Questions around shifting energy and water sources towards more renewable options, as well as the potential role of natural gas from shale formations are under intense discussion. Decisions on these issues will be made in the shadow of climate change, which will both impact and be impacted by energy and water supplies. This work developed a model for calculating the life-cycle environmental impacts of regional energy and water supply scenarios (REWSS). The model was used to discuss future energy pathways in Pennsylvania, future electricity impacts in Brazil, and future water pathways in Arizona. To examine energy in Pennsylvania, this work also developed the first process-based life-cycle assessment (LCA) of shale gas, focusing on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, energy consumption, and water consumption. This LCA confirmed results that shale gas is similar to conventional gas in GHG emissions, though potentially has a lower net energy due to a wide range of production rates for wells. Brazil's electricity-related impacts will rise as development continues. GHG emissions are shown to double by 2020 due to expanded natural gas (NG) and coal usage, with a rise of 390% by 2040 posssible with tropical hydropower reservoirs. While uncertainty around reservoir impacts is large, Brazil's low GHG emissions intensity and future carbon emissions targets are threatened by likely electricity scenarios. Pennsylvania's energy-related impacts are likely to hinge on whether NG is used as a replacement for coal, allowing GHG emissions to drop and then plateau at 93% of 2010 values; or as a transition fuel to expanded renewable energy sources, showing a steady decrease to 86% in 2035. Increased use of biofuels will dominate land occupation and may dominate water

  2. Regionalization in local public health systems: variation in rationale, implementation, and impact on public health preparedness.

    PubMed

    Stoto, Michael A

    2008-01-01

    Comparative case studies found that regionalization originated from a crisis or perceived need for a coordinated response, a need to build local public health capacity, or an effort to use federal preparedness funds more efficiently. Regions vary in terms of their congruence with regional structures for partner agencies, such as emergency management agencies, as well as hospital and health services markets and organizational structure. Some focus on building formal organizational relationships to coordinate and sometimes standardize preparedness and response activities or build regional capacity, while others focus on building informal professional networks. Whatever the approach, strong leadership and trust are required for effective planning, emergency response, and sustainability. This article suggests that regionalization improves emergency preparedness by allowing for more efficient use of resources and better coordination and demonstrated progress in terms of planning and coordination; regional capacity-building, training, and exercises; and development of professional networks.

  3. Socioeconomic assessment of defense waste processing facility impacts in the Savannah River Plant region

    SciTech Connect

    Peelle, E.; Reed, J.H.; Stevenson, R.H.

    1981-09-01

    The DWPF will immobilize highly radioactive defense wastes for storage on site until shipment to an approved federal repository for radioactive wastes. This document assesses the socioeconomic impacts of constructing and operating the proposed facility and presents the assessment methodology. Because various schedules and various ways of staging the construction of the DWPF are considered and because in some of these instances a large nearby construction project (the Vogtle Nuclear Power Station) may influence the socioeconomic impacts, four scenarios involving different facility options and schedules are assessed. In general, the impacts were found not to be large. In the scenario where the socioeconomic effects were the greatest, it was found that there are likely to be some impacts on schools in Barnwell County as well as a shortage of mobile homes in that county. Aiken, Allendale, and Bamberg counties are also likely to experience slight-to-moderate housing shortages. Minor impacts are anticipated for fire and police services, roads, traffic, and land use. There will be noticeable economic impact from the project. Other scenarios had fewer socioeconomic impacts.

  4. Predicted detection rates of regional-scale meteorite impacts on Mars with the InSight short-period seismometer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teanby, N. A.

    2015-08-01

    In 2016 NASA will launch the InSight discovery-class mission, which aims to study the detailed internal structure of Mars for the first time. Short- and long-period seismometers form a major component of InSight's payload and have the potential to detect seismic waves generated by meteorite impacts. Large globally detectable impact events producing craters with diameters of ∼ 100 m have been investigated previously and are likely to be rare (Teanby, N.A., Wookey, J. [2011]. Phys. Earth Planet. Int. 186, 70-80), but smaller impacts producing craters in the 0.5-20 m range are more numerous and potentially occur sufficiently often to be detectable on regional scales (≲1000 km). At these distances, seismic waves will have significant high frequency content and will be suited to detection with InSight's short-period seismometer SEIS-SP. In this paper I estimate the current martian crater production function from observations of new craters (Malin, M.C. et al. [2006]. Science 314, 1573-1577; Daubar, I.J. et al. [2013]. Icarus 225, 506-516), model results (Williams, J.P., Pathare, A.V., Aharonson, O. [2014]. Icarus 235, 23-36), and standard isochrons (Hartmann, W.K. [2005]. Icarus 174, 294-320). These impact rates are combined with an empirical relation between impact energy, source-receiver distance, and peak seismogram amplitude, derived from a compilation of seismic recordings of terrestrial and lunar impacts, chemical explosions, and nuclear tests. The resulting peak seismogram amplitude scaling law contains significant uncertainty, but can be used to predict impact detection rates. I estimate that for a short-period instrument, with a noise spectral density of 10-8 ms-2 Hz-1/2 in the 1-16 Hz frequency band, approximately 0.1-30 regional impacts per year should be detectable with a nominal value of 1-3 impacts per year. Therefore, small regional impacts are likely to be a viable source of seismic energy for probing Mars' crustal and upper mantle structure. This is

  5. Monitoring of copper, arsenic and antimony levels in agricultural soils impacted and non-impacted by mining activities, from three regions in Chile.

    PubMed

    De Gregori, Ida; Fuentes, Edwar; Rojas, Mariela; Pinochet, Hugo; Potin-Gautier, Martine

    2003-04-01

    This paper reports a comparative study of the concentration of three important environmental elements that are often found together in mineral deposits and then associated with mining activities; copper, arsenic and antimony. These elements were determined in 26 different agricultural soils from regions I, II and V in Chile, zones where the most important and biggest copper industries of this country are located. As background levels of these elements in soils have not been well established, in this study, both, impacted and non-impacted agricultural soils from different regions were considered. The relationships between the concentrations of these elements in soils were also examined. The concentration ranges for copper, arsenic and antimony were 11-530; 2.7-202 and 0.42-11 mg kg(-1) respectively. The copper concentrations in non-polluted soils from the north and central zone of Chile were similar. However, three sites from the north region have copper concentration as higher as 100 mg kg(-1), values that exceed the critical concentration for copper in soils. The concentration of arsenic and antimony in the north soils were higher than in non-impacted ones and, in the case of arsenic, greatly exceeded the world average concentration reported for this element in soils. The highest arsenic and antimony concentrations were found in Calama and Quillagua soils, two different sites in the Loa valley. The arsenic/antimony concentration ratio was higher in Quillagua soil. The high concentrations of three elements determined in impacted soils from region V (Puchuncaví and Catemu valleys) clearly shows the impact produced in this zone by the industrial and mining activities developed in their proximities. At Puchuncaví valley a clear decrease was observed in copper, arsenic and antimony concentrations in soils on the function of the distance from the industrial complex "Las Ventanas", and all concentrations exceeded the reported critical values for this matrix. Instead at

  6. Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles; Ponnusamy, Paramasivam; Rasnayaka, Herath; Singh, Harbir

    2015-01-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work

  7. Long-term regional shifts in plant community composition are largely explained by local deer impact experiments.

    PubMed

    Frerker, Katie; Sabo, Autumn; Waller, Donald

    2014-01-01

    The fact that herbivores and predators exert top-down effects to alter community composition and dynamics at lower trophic levels is no longer controversial, yet we still lack evidence of the full nature, extent, and longer-term effects of these impacts. Here, we use results from a set of replicated experiments on the local impacts of white-tailed deer to evaluate the extent to which such impacts could account for half-century shifts in forest plant communities across the upper Midwest, USA. We measured species' responses to deer at four sites using 10-20 year-old deer exclosures. Among common species, eight were more abundant outside the exclosures, seven were commoner inside, and 16 had similar abundances in- and outside. Deer herbivory greatly increased the abundance of ferns and graminoids and doubled the abundance of exotic plants. In contrast, deer greatly reduced tree regeneration, shrub cover (100-200 fold in two species), plant height, plant reproduction, and the abundance of forbs. None of 36 focal species increased in reproduction or grew taller in the presence of deer, contrary to expectations. We compared these results to data on 50-year regional shifts in species abundances across 62 sites. The effects of herbivory by white-tailed deer accurately account for many of the long-term regional shifts observed in species' abundances (R2 = 0.41). These results support the conjecture that deer impacts have driven many of the regional shifts in forest understory cover and composition observed in recent decades. Our ability to link results from shorter-term, local experiments to regional long-term studies of ecological change strengthens the inferences we can draw from both approaches.

  8. Traumatic impaction of foreign body in the mucobuccal fold of lower anterior region in the oral cavity: A chance finding

    PubMed Central

    Vinayagam, Ramya; Gita, Bagavad; Chandrasekaran, Sajja; Nazer, Afreena Imami

    2015-01-01

    Foreign bodies may be ingested, inserted or deposited in the oral cavity. Iatrogenic foreign bodies such as impression material, amalgam, broken instruments, needles etc., are commonly encountered. These foreign bodies are generally symptomatic and show signs of inflammation pain and purulent discharge. An unusual case of asymptomatic traumatic foreign body (stone) impacted in the lower anterior region due to an accident 3 years back, which was diagnosed during routine oral examination is reported. PMID:26229280

  9. East Asian Studies of Tropospheric Aerosols and their Impact on Regional Climate (EAST-AIRC): An Overview

    SciTech Connect

    Li, Zhanqing; Li, C.; Chen, H.; Tsay, S. C.; Holben, B. N.; Huang, J.; Li, B.; Maring, H.; Qian, Yun; Shi, Guangyu; Xia, X.; Yin, Y.; Zheng, Y.; Zhuang, G.

    2011-02-01

    As the most populated region of the world, Asia is a major source of aerosols with potential large impact over vast downstream areas. Papers published in this special section describe the variety of aerosols observed in China and their effects and interactions with the regional climate as part of the East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols and Impact on Regional Climate (EAST-AIRC). The majority of the papers are based on analyses of observations made under three field projects, namely, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Mobile Facility mission in China (AMF10 China), the East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols: an International Regional Experiment (EAST-AIRE), and the Atmospheric Aerosols of China and their Climate Effects (AACCE). The former two are US-China collaborative projects and the latter is a part of the China’s National Basic Research program (or often referred to as “973 project”). Routine meteorological data of China are also employed in some studies. The wealth of general and specialized measurements lead to extensive and close-up investigations of the optical, physical and chemical properties of anthropogenic, natural, and mixed aerosols; their sources, formation and transport mechanisms; horizontal, vertical and temporal variations; direct and indirect effects and interactions with the East Asian monsoon system. Particular efforts are made to advance our understanding of the mixing and interaction between dust and anthropogenic pollutants during transport. Several modeling studies were carried out to simulate aerosol impact on radiation budget, temperature, precipitation, wind and atmospheric circulation, fog, etc. In addition, impacts of the Asian monsoon system on aerosol loading are also simulated.

  10. Long-Term Regional Shifts in Plant Community Composition Are Largely Explained by Local Deer Impact Experiments

    PubMed Central

    Frerker, Katie; Sabo, Autumn; Waller, Donald

    2014-01-01

    The fact that herbivores and predators exert top-down effects to alter community composition and dynamics at lower trophic levels is no longer controversial, yet we still lack evidence of the full nature, extent, and longer-term effects of these impacts. Here, we use results from a set of replicated experiments on the local impacts of white-tailed deer to evaluate the extent to which such impacts could account for half-century shifts in forest plant communities across the upper Midwest, USA. We measured species' responses to deer at four sites using 10–20 year-old deer exclosures. Among common species, eight were more abundant outside the exclosures, seven were commoner inside, and 16 had similar abundances in- and outside. Deer herbivory greatly increased the abundance of ferns and graminoids and doubled the abundance of exotic plants. In contrast, deer greatly reduced tree regeneration, shrub cover (100–200 fold in two species), plant height, plant reproduction, and the abundance of forbs. None of 36 focal species increased in reproduction or grew taller in the presence of deer, contrary to expectations. We compared these results to data on 50-year regional shifts in species abundances across 62 sites. The effects of herbivory by white-tailed deer accurately account for many of the long-term regional shifts observed in species' abundances (R2 = 0.41). These results support the conjecture that deer impacts have driven many of the regional shifts in forest understory cover and composition observed in recent decades. Our ability to link results from shorter-term, local experiments to regional long-term studies of ecological change strengthens the inferences we can draw from both approaches. PMID:25551827

  11. Using Different Spatial Scales of Climate Data for Regional Climate Impact Assessment: Effect on Crop Modeling Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Trabucco, A.; Montesarchio, M.; Mercogliano, P.; Spano, D.

    2015-12-01

    The high vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate conditions causes serious concern regarding climate change impacts on crop development and production, particularly in vulnerable areas like the Mediterranean Basin. Crop simulation models are the most common tools applied for the assessment of such impacts on crop development and yields, both at local and regional scales. However, the use of these models in regional impact studies requires spatial input data for weather, soil, management, etc, whose resolution could affect simulation results. Indeed, the uncertainty in projecting climate change impacts on crop phenology and yield at the regional scale is affected not only by the uncertainty related to climate models and scenarios, but also by the downscaling methods and the resolution of climate data. The aim of this study was the evaluation of the effects of spatial resolutions of climate projections in estimating maturity date and grain yield for different varieties of durum wheat, common wheat and maize in Italy. The simulations were carried out using the CSM-CERES-Wheat and CSM-CERES-Maize crop models included in the DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, parameterized and evaluated in different experimental sites located in Italy. Dynamically downscaled climate data at different resolutions and different RCP scenarios were used as input in the crop models. A spatial platform, DSSAT-CSM based, developed in R programming language was applied to perform the simulation of maturity date and grain yield for durum wheat, common wheat and maize in each grid cell. Results, analyzed at the national and regional level, will be discussed.

  12. East Asian Studies of Tropospheric Aerosols and their Impact on Regional Climate (EAST-AIRC): An overview

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Zhanqing; Li, C.; Chen, H.; Tsay, S.-C.; Holben, B.; Huang, J.; Li, B.; Maring, H.; Qian, Y.; Shi, G.; Xia, X.; Yin, Y.; Zheng, Y.; Zhuang, G.

    2011-04-01

    As the most populated region of the world, Asia is a major source of aerosols with potential large impact over vast downstream areas. Papers published in this special section describe the variety of aerosols observed in China and their effects and interactions with the regional climate as part of the East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols and their Impact on Regional Climate (EAST-AIRC). The majority of the papers are based on analyses of observations made under three field projects, namely, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Mobile Facility mission in China (AMF-China), the East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols: An International Regional Experiment (EAST-AIRE), and the Atmospheric Aerosols of China and their Climate Effects (AACCE). The former two are U.S.-China collaborative projects, and the latter is a part of the China's National Basic Research program (or often referred to as "973 project"). Routine meteorological data of China are also employed in some studies. The wealth of general and specialized measurements lead to extensive and close-up investigations of the optical, physical, and chemical properties of anthropogenic, natural, and mixed aerosols; their sources, formation, and transport mechanisms; horizontal, vertical, and temporal variations; direct and indirect effects; and interactions with the East Asian monsoon system. Particular efforts are made to advance our understanding of the mixing and interaction between dust and anthropogenic pollutants during transport. Several modeling studies were carried out to simulate aerosol impact on radiation budget, temperature, precipitation, wind and atmospheric circulation, fog, etc. In addition, impacts of the Asian monsoon system on aerosol loading are also simulated.

  13. EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON REGIONAL AIR QUALITY OVER THE UNITED STATES

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation summarizes recent results produced in support of the assessment of climate change impacts on ozone and particulate matter over the continental United States. Preliminary findings of climate scenario, meteorologically-drive emissions and air quality simulation a...

  14. Offshore wind farms in the southwestern Baltic Sea: A model study of regional impacts on oxygen conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janßen, Holger; Schröder, Toni; Zettler, Michael L.; Pollehne, Falk

    2015-01-01

    Offshore wind farm piles are secondary hard substrate and hence an attractive colonization surface for many species. Especially in marine areas dominated by soft sediments, wind farms may lead to a significant increase in biomass by enlarging habitats from benthos layers into the pelagic column. A concomitant effect is the increase in oxygen consumption through respiration of living biomass and especially through degradation of dead biomass, mainly Mytilus edulis. This leads to impacts on the regional oxygen budget, and local anoxia in the direct vicinity of wind farm piles has been documented in scientific literature. The present study investigates the regional impact of multiple wind farms on oxygen concentration levels and on the appearance of hypoxia. A five-year data sampling with a steel cylinder and fouling plates delivered data for a 3D ecosystem model. The results show that wind farms do not lead to a significant decrease in oxygen on the mesoscale level. But additional anoxia may occur locally, which may lead to the release of hydrogen sulfide on microscale level and potential subsequent regional impacts.

  15. Assessing the Impact of Higher Education on Regional Development: Using a Realist Approach for Policy Enhancement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Higher Education Management and Policy, 2005

    2005-01-01

    Higher Education is widely seen as a crucial ingredient in the regional economic development mix, and as fundamental to the development of the knowledge economy (Barclays, 2002). Indeed the Higher Education Funding Council for England has issued broad guidelines for benchmarking good practice in assessing regional development contribution of a…

  16. Using attributable risk to assess the regional-scale impacts of environmental stressors

    EPA Science Inventory

    We describe the application of population attributable risk (AR) for assessing the relative importance of aquatic stressors across large regions. A stressor's importance depends on its regional extent (e.g., the total length of stream with elevated stressor levels), and also on i...

  17. 75 FR 51477 - Notice of Availability of the Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Alamogordo Regional...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-08-20

    ... pump station in Alamogordo to treat the brackish groundwater to drinking water standards. This... Alamogordo Regional Water Supply Project, New Mexico AGENCY: Bureau of Land Management, Interior. ACTION... (EIS) for the Alamogordo Regional Water Supply Project and by this notice is announcing the opening...

  18. Evaluating the relative impact of climate and economic changes on forest and agricultural ecosystem services in mountain regions.

    PubMed

    Briner, Simon; Elkin, Ché; Huber, Robert

    2013-11-15

    Provisioning of ecosystem services (ES) in mountainous regions is predicted to be influenced by i) the direct biophysical impacts of climate change, ii) climate mediated land use change, and iii) socioeconomic driven changes in land use. The relative importance and the spatial distribution of these factors on forest and agricultural derived ES, however, is unclear, making the implementation of ES management schemes difficult. Using an integrated economic-ecological modeling framework, we evaluated the impact of these driving forces on the provision of forest and agricultural ES in a mountain region of southern Switzerland. Results imply that forest ES will be strongly influenced by the direct impact of climate change, but that changes in land use will have a comparatively small impact. The simulation of direct impacts of climate change affects forest ES at all elevations, while land use changes can only be found at high elevations. In contrast, changes to agricultural ES were found to be primarily due to shifts in economic conditions that alter land use and land management. The direct influence of climate change on agriculture is only predicted to be substantial at high elevations, while socioeconomic driven shifts in land use are projected to affect agricultural ES at all elevations. Our simulation results suggest that policy schemes designed to mitigate the negative impact of climate change on forests should focus on suitable adaptive management plans, accelerating adaptation processes for currently forested areas. To maintain provision of agricultural ES policy needs to focus on economic conditions rather than on supporting adaptation to new climate. PMID:23995509

  19. Evaluating the relative impact of climate and economic changes on forest and agricultural ecosystem services in mountain regions.

    PubMed

    Briner, Simon; Elkin, Ché; Huber, Robert

    2013-11-15

    Provisioning of ecosystem services (ES) in mountainous regions is predicted to be influenced by i) the direct biophysical impacts of climate change, ii) climate mediated land use change, and iii) socioeconomic driven changes in land use. The relative importance and the spatial distribution of these factors on forest and agricultural derived ES, however, is unclear, making the implementation of ES management schemes difficult. Using an integrated economic-ecological modeling framework, we evaluated the impact of these driving forces on the provision of forest and agricultural ES in a mountain region of southern Switzerland. Results imply that forest ES will be strongly influenced by the direct impact of climate change, but that changes in land use will have a comparatively small impact. The simulation of direct impacts of climate change affects forest ES at all elevations, while land use changes can only be found at high elevations. In contrast, changes to agricultural ES were found to be primarily due to shifts in economic conditions that alter land use and land management. The direct influence of climate change on agriculture is only predicted to be substantial at high elevations, while socioeconomic driven shifts in land use are projected to affect agricultural ES at all elevations. Our simulation results suggest that policy schemes designed to mitigate the negative impact of climate change on forests should focus on suitable adaptive management plans, accelerating adaptation processes for currently forested areas. To maintain provision of agricultural ES policy needs to focus on economic conditions rather than on supporting adaptation to new climate.

  20. [Impact and state of the art of regional healthcare planning and management guidelines in a local health authority of the Lazio region (Italy)].

    PubMed

    Priori, Maria Rosaria; Barbato, Angelo

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of health care planning and management guidelines, elaborated by the Lazio regional healthcare authority, on the organizational structure and operational processes of local health authorities and, more specifically, of the Roma C local health authority. The guidelines are made up of three volumes and mainly describe an operational model, rather than being a set of standard references aimed at standardizing the quality of information low systems in local healthcare authorities. The guidelines are essentially a didactic text, and were elaborated by a consulting firm, Engineering Management Consulting, on behalf of the Lazio regional authority. In the first section, the main concepts are defined, while in subsequent sections, detailed models regarding the specific subject matter are described. Although the guidelines represent a useful tool in the process of converting local health authorities of the Lazio region into "business" organizations, so far they have been of use only in the first phase of assessment of different organizational models for healthcare planning and management. There is still a long way ahead towards defining standard procedures and references for describing activities and costs. This is what should hopefully be achieved briefly and which will necessarily require the introduction of a data warehouse and business intelligence software that will allow monitoring of activities and making short term predictions through the use balanced scorecards and data mining. PMID:18084348

  1. Freshening of the South Indian Ocean during the Argo period: observations, causes, and impact on regional sea level change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llovel, William; Lee, Tong

    2015-04-01

    Steric sea level change has been identified as one of the major contributors to the regional sea level changes. This contribution varies in space and time. Temperature (thermosteric) contribution to sea level has been found to be generally more important than salinity (halosteric) effect. Based on temperature and salinity data from Argo floats during 2005-2013 and coincident sea level measurements from satellite altimetry, we found that the central-eastern part of the South Indian Ocean stood out in the entire world ocean as a region that had a more dominant halosteric contribution to sea level change. The conspicuously large halosteric contribution was associated with a freshening in the upper few hundred meters. Neither local atmospheric forcing nor halosteric signal transmitted from the Pacific can explain this freshening. An observed strengthening of the Indonesian throughflow since early 2007 and the enhanced precipitation in the Indonesian Seas inferred from various precipitation estimates compounded by strong tidal mixing are the likely causes of the freshening of the South Indian Ocean. The findings also have implications to the potential influence of regional water cycle and ocean currents in the maritime Continent region to sea level changes in the South Indian Ocean prior to the Argo era and sea level projection in the future in response to climate change. Sustained measurements of sea surface salinity from satellites will significantly enhance our capability to study the impact of regional water cycle in the Maritime Continent region to related changes in the marginal seas and the Indian Ocean.

  2. Assessing Regional-Scale Impacts of Short Rotation Coppices on Ecosystem Services by Modeling Land-Use Decisions.

    PubMed

    Schulze, Jule; Frank, Karin; Priess, Joerg A; Meyer, Markus A

    2016-01-01

    Meeting the world's growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape. This

  3. Assessing Regional-Scale Impacts of Short Rotation Coppices on Ecosystem Services by Modeling Land-Use Decisions.

    PubMed

    Schulze, Jule; Frank, Karin; Priess, Joerg A; Meyer, Markus A

    2016-01-01

    Meeting the world's growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape. This

  4. Assessing Regional-Scale Impacts of Short Rotation Coppices on Ecosystem Services by Modeling Land-Use Decisions

    PubMed Central

    Schulze, Jule; Frank, Karin; Priess, Joerg A.; Meyer, Markus A.

    2016-01-01

    Meeting the world’s growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape

  5. Climate change impact assessment in Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part II: a spatially resolved regional risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Rizzi, J; Zabeo, A; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impact assessment on water resources has received high international attention over the last two decades, due to the observed global warming and its consequences at the global to local scale. In particular, climate-related risks for groundwater and related ecosystems pose a great concern to scientists and water authorities involved in the protection of these valuable resources. The close link of global warming with water cycle alterations encourages research to deepen current knowledge on relationships between climate trends and status of water systems, and to develop predictive tools for their sustainable management, copying with key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groundwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed in order to identify impacts from climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems (e.g. surface waters, agricultural areas, natural environments) and to rank areas and receptors at risk in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). Based on an integrated analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks linked to climate change at the regional scale, a RRA framework complying with the Sources-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) approach was defined. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters (i.e. groundwater level variations, changes in nitrate infiltration processes, changes in water availability for irrigation) were selected and analyzed through hazard scenario, exposure, susceptibility and risk assessment. The RRA methodology used hazard scenarios constructed through global and high resolution model simulations for the 2071-2100 period, according to IPCC A1B emission scenario in order to produce useful indications for future risk prioritization and to support the addressing of adaptation measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR) techniques. Relevant

  6. Climate change impact assessment in Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part II: a spatially resolved regional risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Rizzi, J; Zabeo, A; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impact assessment on water resources has received high international attention over the last two decades, due to the observed global warming and its consequences at the global to local scale. In particular, climate-related risks for groundwater and related ecosystems pose a great concern to scientists and water authorities involved in the protection of these valuable resources. The close link of global warming with water cycle alterations encourages research to deepen current knowledge on relationships between climate trends and status of water systems, and to develop predictive tools for their sustainable management, copying with key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groundwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed in order to identify impacts from climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems (e.g. surface waters, agricultural areas, natural environments) and to rank areas and receptors at risk in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). Based on an integrated analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks linked to climate change at the regional scale, a RRA framework complying with the Sources-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) approach was defined. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters (i.e. groundwater level variations, changes in nitrate infiltration processes, changes in water availability for irrigation) were selected and analyzed through hazard scenario, exposure, susceptibility and risk assessment. The RRA methodology used hazard scenarios constructed through global and high resolution model simulations for the 2071-2100 period, according to IPCC A1B emission scenario in order to produce useful indications for future risk prioritization and to support the addressing of adaptation measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR) techniques. Relevant

  7. Climate uncertainty and the regional economic impacts of global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, M.J.; Liebetrau, A.M.; Lopresti, C.A.

    1993-10-01

    The US Department of Energy funded pioneering research analyzing the effects of climate change and CO{sup 2} fertilization at the regional level in the Missouri-Iowa-Nebraska-Kansas (MINK) region. That study used existing process models of the agricultural, water, energy, and forestry sectors and of the regional economy to conduct a wide-ranging, integrated analysis of the regional economic effects of climate change. Neither the full integration of the process models nor the full investigation of the uncertainties of climate and economic response to climate was accomplished because (1) the process models were time-consuming to run, and (2) the MINI( study used a single rich historical climate analog -- the 1930s `` Dustbowl`` period -- to depict climate change. More analysis was required to develop ranges of climate influences over more extreme climate conditions.

  8. Assessing the long term impact of power plant emissions on regional air pollution using extensive monitoring data.

    PubMed

    Yuval; Broday, David M

    2009-02-01

    In spite of the recent increasing interest in energy production from renewable sources, polluting hydrocarbon-fueled power plants will continue to provide most of the electricity to the world's population in the coming decades. This work studies the long term impact on the regional ambient air which can be attributable to three plants with different power outputs, fuel types, and stack heights. The study is carried out in an area with relatively flat topography and typical coastal meteorology. A dense air pollution monitoring network, operating for many years, makes this area a real life laboratory for studying the pollution routes, the impact of the sources at different directions and distances, and the effects of transition to cleaner fuel. The direct impact of each of the two large power plants on the ambient SO2 levels could be clearly detected in most of the monitoring stations at distances up to 40 km away. Interestingly, a relatively large impact can also be attributed to the indirect effect of emissions that are recirculated back to the region with the land breeze. The transition from using fuel oil to natural gas in one of the large power plants resulted in a dramatic reduction in the mean SO2 levels in all of the monitoring stations. The contribution of the industrial emissions to the ambient NO2 levels seems to be very modest relative to that from traffic. An analysis of the NO, NO2 and O3 records suggests that the highest mean NO2 concentrations, and a large proportion of the total NO2 encountered in the study area, are probably due to recirculated NOx emitted by traffic in a densely populated region north of it. PMID:19216124

  9. Assessing the long term impact of power plant emissions on regional air pollution using extensive monitoring data.

    PubMed

    Yuval; Broday, David M

    2009-02-01

    In spite of the recent increasing interest in energy production from renewable sources, polluting hydrocarbon-fueled power plants will continue to provide most of the electricity to the world's population in the coming decades. This work studies the long term impact on the regional ambient air which can be attributable to three plants with different power outputs, fuel types, and stack heights. The study is carried out in an area with relatively flat topography and typical coastal meteorology. A dense air pollution monitoring network, operating for many years, makes this area a real life laboratory for studying the pollution routes, the impact of the sources at different directions and distances, and the effects of transition to cleaner fuel. The direct impact of each of the two large power plants on the ambient SO2 levels could be clearly detected in most of the monitoring stations at distances up to 40 km away. Interestingly, a relatively large impact can also be attributed to the indirect effect of emissions that are recirculated back to the region with the land breeze. The transition from using fuel oil to natural gas in one of the large power plants resulted in a dramatic reduction in the mean SO2 levels in all of the monitoring stations. The contribution of the industrial emissions to the ambient NO2 levels seems to be very modest relative to that from traffic. An analysis of the NO, NO2 and O3 records suggests that the highest mean NO2 concentrations, and a large proportion of the total NO2 encountered in the study area, are probably due to recirculated NOx emitted by traffic in a densely populated region north of it.

  10. Impact of the 1997-1998 El-Nino of Regional Hydrology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lakshmi, Venkataraman; Susskind, Joel

    1998-01-01

    The 1997-1998 El-Nino brought with it a range of severe local-regional hydrological phenomena. Record high temperatures and extremely dry soil conditions in Texas is an example of this regional effect. The El-Nino and La-Nina change the continental weather patterns considerably. However, connections between continental weather anomalies and regional or local anomalies have not been established to a high degree of confidence. There are several unique features of the recent El-Nino and La-Nina. Due to the recognition of the present El-Nino well in advance, there have been several coupled model studies on global and regional scales. Secondly, there is a near real-time monitoring of the situation using data from satellite sensors, namely, SeaWIFS, TOVS, AVHRR and GOES. Both observations and modeling characterize the large scale features of this El-Nino fairly well. However the connection to the local and regional hydrological phenomenon still needs to be made. This paper will use satellite observations and analysis data to establish a relation between local hydrology and large scale weather patterns. This will be the first step in using satellite data to perform regional hydrological simulations of surface temperature and soil moisture.

  11. Developing a climatological / hydrological baseline for climate change impact assessment in a remote mountain region - an example from Peru

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salzmann, N.; Huggel, C.; Calanca, P.; Diaz, A.; Jonas, T.; Konzelmann, T.; Lagos, P.; Rohrer, M.; Silverio, W.; Zappa, M.

    2009-04-01

    Changes in the availability of fresh water caused by climatic changes will become a major issue in the coming years and decades. In this context, regions presently depending on water from retreating mountain glaciers are particularly vulnerable. In many parts of the Andes for example, people already suffer from the impacts of reduced glacier run off. Therefore, the development and implementation of adequate adaptation measures is an urgent need. To better understand the impact of climate change on water resources in the Andean region, a new research program (PACC - Programa de Adaptación al Cambio Climático en el Perú) between Peru and Switzerland has recently been launched by SDC (Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation). As a first step, a scientific baseline relative to climatology, hydrology, agriculture and natural disasters will be developed on a regional scale for the Departments of Cusco and Apurimac in close cooperation with partners from Universities and governmental institutions as well as NGOs in Peru. A reliable data baseline is a must for the development of adaptation measures that can effectively cope with the risks induced by climate change. The realization of this task in remote mountain regions, where observational data are generally sparse, however, is challenging. Temporal and spatial gaps must be filled using indirect methods such as re-analyses, remote sensing and interpolation techniques. For future scenarios, the use of climate model output along with statistical and dynamical downscaling is indicated. This contribution will present and discuss approaches and possible concepts to tackle the challenges in a Peruvian context. In addition, first experiences will be reported particularly on cross-disciplinary issues that naturally emerge from the integrative perspective needed in climate change impact assessments and the development of adaptation strategies.

  12. The Impact of Selective Logging on the Regional Carbon Budget at the Tapajos National Forest: a Modeling Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, M.; Asner, G. P.; Keller, M.; Knapp, D.

    2005-12-01

    Selective logging has been identified as an important form of land use in the Brazilian Amazon region based on studies in Large-scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment (LBA) Phase II (Nepstad et al., 1999; Asner et al., 2004). The ground and canopy damage caused by selective logging could have significant ecological, biogeochemical and micrometeorological consequences. Logging creates canopy gaps that affect photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) interception, latent and sensible heat fluxes, water stress and plant productivity. Also, it creates an increased amount of coarse woody debris (CWD), dead leaves and roots, which enlarge the carbon pools for respiration and fire. Furthermore, the biogeochemical processes in the tropical forest including the nutrient cycles and wildlife would also be altered. Unfortunately, previous studies on impacts of selective logging in that region are generally limited in space and/or time. In this study, a high-resolution (30 m by 30 m) version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model is applied to quantify the impact of selective logging on the regional carbon budget at the Tapajos National Forest. A unique aspect of this study is to take advantage of recent progress in characterizing explicitly the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest canopy gaps and CWD generation based upon field and remote sensing measurements (Asner et al., 2005; Keller et al., 2004). An undisturbed forest scenario and a logging scenario will be considered. The undisturbed forest scenario corresponds to the condition prior to logging and will serve as a baseline simulation for comparison. By assimilating satellite-derived vegetation indices, gap fractions, and CWD estimates before and after logging, we expect to simulate the spatial changes of carbon storage and carbon release caused by logging over time. Measurements from the km 83 flux tower located at the Tapajos National Forest will be used to constrain the model. This study constitutes our

  13. Drought and Snow: Analysis of Drivers, Processes and Impacts of Streamflow Droughts in Snow-Dominated Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Loon, A.; Laaha, G.; Van Lanen, H.; Parajka, J.; Fleig, A. K.; Ploum, S.

    2015-12-01

    Around the world, drought events with severe socio-economic impacts seem to have a link with winter snowpack. That is the case for the current California drought, but analysing historical archives and drought impact databases for the US and Europe we found many impacts that can be attributed to snowpack anomalies. Agriculture and electricity production (hydropower) were found to be the sectors that are most affected by drought related to snow. In this study, we investigated the processes underlying hydrological drought in snow-dominated regions. We found that drought drivers are different in different regions. In Norway, more than 90% of spring streamflow droughts were preceded by below-average winter precipitation, while both winter air temperature and spring weather were indifferent. In Austria, however, spring streamflow droughts could only be explained by a combination of factors. For most events, winter and spring air temperatures were above average (70% and 65% of events, respectively), and winter and spring precipitation was below average (75% and 80%). Because snow storage results from complex interactions between precipitation and temperature and these variables vary strongly with altitude, snow-related drought drivers have a large spatial variability. The weather input is subsequently modified by land properties. Multiple linear regression between drought severity variables and a large number of catchment characteristics for 44 catchments in Austria showed that storage influences both drought duration and deficit volume. The seasonal storage of water in snow and glaciers was found to be a statistically important variable explaining streamflow drought deficit. Our drought impact analysis in Europe also showed that 40% of the selected drought impacts was caused by a combination of snow-related and other drought types. For example, the combination of a winter drought with a preceding or subsequent summer drought was reported to have a large effect on

  14. Drought and Snow: Analysis of Drivers, Processes and Impacts of Streamflow Droughts in Snow-Dominated Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Loon, Anne; Laaha, Gregor; Van Lanen, Henny; Parajka, Juraj; Fleig, Anne; Ploum, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    Around the world, drought events with severe socio-economic impacts seem to have a link with winter snowpack. That is the case for the current California drought, but analysing historical archives and drought impact databases for the US and Europe we found many impacts that can be attributed to snowpack anomalies. Agriculture and electricity production (hydropower) were found to be the sectors that are most affected by drought related to snow. In this study, we investigated the processes underlying hydrological drought in snow-dominated regions. We found that drought drivers are different in different regions. In Norway, more than 90% of spring streamflow droughts were preceded by below-average winter precipitation, while both winter air temperature and spring weather were indifferent. In Austria, however, spring streamflow droughts could only be explained by a combination of factors. For most events, winter and spring air temperatures were above average (70% and 65% of events, respectively), and winter and spring precipitation was below average (75% and 80%). Because snow storage results from complex interactions between precipitation and temperature and these variables vary strongly with altitude, snow-related drought drivers have a large spatial variability. The weather input is subsequently modified by land properties. Multiple linear regression between drought severity variables and a large number of catchment characteristics for 44 catchments in Austria showed that storage influences both drought duration and deficit volume. The seasonal storage of water in snow and glaciers was found to be a statistically important variable explaining streamflow drought deficit. Our drought impact analysis in Europe also showed that 40% of the selected drought impacts was caused by a combination of snow-related and other drought types. For example, the combination of a winter drought with a preceding or subsequent summer drought was reported to have a large effect on

  15. Equatorial Energy Accumulation and Emanation Regions: Impacts of a Zonally Varying Basic State.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webster, Peter J.; Chang, Hai-Ru

    1988-03-01

    Previous studies have suggested that the regions of mean anomalous perturbation kinetic energy which exist in the vicinity of the equatorial upper-tropospheric westerlies are the result of the propagation of extratropical synoptic and low frequency waves through the equatorial `westerly duet' where a subsequent wave energy convergence occurs. The proposition that these perturbed equatorial regions may arise from remote equatorial energy sources is investigated. It is shown that three criteria must be met. The first two, the existence of wave energy sources along the equator and a mechanism to transport that energy longitudinally, are accounted for relatively easily with existing theory of divergent, trapped equatorial modes. The third criterion, the requirement of a mechanism for an accumulation of transient energy in the equatorial stretch flow (i.e., nonzero x), is not immediately obvious and requires exploration to develop new concepts.Using simple WKBJ arguments it is shown that within a realistic parameter range, a combination of longitudinal stretch in the basic state along the equator and the characteristics of the equatorial trapped waves satisfy the third criterion. The equatorial waves must possess a divergent structure which insists on equatorial trapping. It is shown that purely barotropic modes, which cannot be equatorially trapped, do not represent the real atmospheric structure at low latitudes. Regions of negative longitudinal stretch along the equator (i.e., westerlies decreasing, or easterlies increasing, towards the cast) are shown to be wave energy accumulation regions. Regions with positive stretch, on the other hand, are wave energy depletion regions. A free-surface barotropic model with fully nonlinear basic states, containing both stretch and shear, confirm the results of the simpler model, i.e., regardless of the position of the energy source within the tropical atmosphere the wave energy accumulates in the same region; namely, on the

  16. Impact of temperatures to Hessian Fly resistance of selected wheat cultivars in the Great Plains Region

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Changes in temperature can result in fundamental changes in plant physiology. This study investigated the impact of different temperatures from 14 to 26 °C on the resistance or susceptibility to the Hessian fly, Mayetiola destructor, of selected wheat cultivars that are either currently popular in ...

  17. REGIONAL ASSESSMENT OF LAND USE IMPACTS ON STREAM CHANNEL HABITAT IN THE MIDDLE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN

    EPA Science Inventory

    Many human land uses and land cover modifications (e.g., logging, grazing, roads) tend to increase erosion, leading to an increase in fine sediment supplied to streams and potentially degrading aquatic habitat for benthic organisms. This study evaluated potential human impacts o...

  18. Impact of climate aggregation over different scales on regional NPP modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuhnert, Matthias

    2016-04-01

    Model input data aggregation methods and data aggregation across spatial scales affect various model outputs, e.g. Net Primary Productivity (NPP). The scale at which data is collected is of great importance. In ecosystem modelling studies we often see soil and climate data collected at coarse scale being used in models to predict ecosystem responses e.g. NPP in dependency of these parameters at finer scale. Outputs of these models are impacted by the way the data is aggregated or dis-aggregated to the spatial scale. Up to know there are very few studies which quantified the impact of scaling on the simulation results. In this study, we quantify the impact of climate data aggregation using five different resolutions, to simulate NPP by 11 different crop and biogeochemical models for the same study area. The aggregation effect is investigated for wheat and maize cropping systems in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. The simulation results are analysed for NPP averaged over growing seasons of a 30 year period at different spatial resolutions as well as for annual NPP during growing season. While there is only a minor impact of input data aggregation on NPP on 30 year averages, the annual data show differences in NPP up to 9.4 % and 13.6 % between the different resolutions for wheat and maize, respectively. The scale effect differ between the models and shows higher impacts for extreme years. This is tested by selecting years with extreme dry conditions based on a drought index, which showed stronger scale effects of up to 12.8 % and 15.5 % for wheat and maize, respectively.

  19. Assessing planetary and regional nitrogen boundaries related to food security and adverse environmental impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Vries, Wim; Kros, Hans; Kroeze, Carolien; Seitzinger, Sybil

    2014-05-01

    In this presentation, we first discuss the concept of -, governance interest in- and criticism on planetary boundaries, specifically with respect to the nitrogen (N) cycle. We then systematically evaluate the criticism and argue that planetary N boundaries need to include both the benefits and adverse impacts of reactive N (Nr) and the spatial variability of Nr impacts, in terms of shortage and surplus, being main arguments for not deriving such boundaries. Next, we present an holistic approach for an updated planetary N boundary by considering the need to: (i) avoid adverse impacts of elevated Nr emissions to water, air and soils, and (ii) feed the world population in an adequate way. The derivation of a planetary N boundary, in terms of anthropogenic fixation of di-nitrogen (N2) by growing legumes and production of N fertilizer, is illustrated by (i) identification of multiple threat N indicators and setting critical limits for them, (ii) back calculating critical N losses from critical limits for N indicators, while accounting for the spatial variability of indicators and their exceedance and (iii) back calculating critical N fixation rates from critical N losses. The derivation of the needed planetary N fixation is assessed from the global population, the recommended dietary N consumption per capita and the N use efficiency in the complete chain from N fixation to N consumption. Results of example applications show that the previously suggested planetary N boundary of 25% of the current value is too low in view of needed N fixation and also unnecessary in view of most environmental impacts. We also illustrate the impacts of changes in the N use efficiency on planetary boundaries in terms of critical N fixation rates.

  20. [Impact of tuberculosis in penal labor facilities on the epidemiological situation in the Sverdlovsk region].

    PubMed

    Nechaeva, O B; Arenskiĭ, V A; Naumenko, E S; Filippov, V A; Dediukhin, K I; Korovina, T I; Livanov, S V

    1998-01-01

    The unfavourable tuberculosis situation in the corrective labour facilities affects the main rates of tuberculosis in the region. Presently, the total registered cases of tuberculosis among prisoners are 36.7 times as high as those in the age-matched general population of the Sverdlovsk Region. The rates of relapses, incidence, death due to tuberculosis show 72.0-, 36.1-, and 10.4-fold increases, respectively. Almost every 10 persons from the labour corrective facilities suffer from active tuberculosis. In the past decade, the growth rates of main tuberculosis parameters in the corrective labour facilities were much higher (total tuberculosis morbidity by 2.1 times, relapses by 2.1 times, general morbidity by 1.7 times, and total tuberculosis mortality by 2.8 times) than those in the region's general population. Extrapulmonary tuberculosis was not virtually detected in the labour corrective facilities) due to the lack of special diagnostic methods.

  1. Impact of nonlocal boundary-layer diffusion scheme on forecasts over Indian region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanjay, J.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Singh, S. S.

    The results of incorporating a nonlocal boundary-layer diffusion scheme in a forecast model over Indian region are discussed. The simple formulation of atmospheric boundary layer height in the nonlocal diffusion scheme is examined in detail to understand how far the model simulated boundary layer height is realistic. Analyses of the temporal and spatial variability of the boundary height for three cases representing premonsoon, active monsoon and post monsoon conditions over Indian region show that it is comparable with the observational evidence. Further, for a case of active monsoon condition over Indian region, comparison of precipitation forecasts with the nonlocal scheme and the control local boundary-layer scheme clearly indicated that the model run with the nonlocal scheme is significantly more accurate in forecasting the intense precipitation locations.

  2. Intra and inter-continental aerosol transport and local and regional impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charles, Leona Ann Marie

    Under the Clean Air Act, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is required to establish a nationally uniform air quality index for the reporting of air quality. In 1976, the EPA established this index, then called the Pollutant Standards Index, for use by state and local communities across the country. The Index provides information on pollutant concentrations for ground-level ozone, particulate matter, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide. On July 18, 1997, the EPA revised the ozone and particulate matter standards, in light of a comprehensive review of new scientific evidence including refined fine particulate matter standards.* Any program which is designed to improve air quality must devise tools in which emissions, meteorology, air chemistry and transport are understood. Clearly, the complexity of this task requires measurements at both regional and mesoscale ranges, as well as on a continental scale to investigate long range transport. Unfortunately, determination of fine particulate matter (PM) concentrations is particularly difficult since an accurate measurement of PM2.5 relies on costly equipment which cannot provide the complete transport story and the mixing and dispersion of particulate matter is much more complex than that for trace gases. Besides the need for accurate measurements as a way of documenting air quality standards, the EPA is required in the near future to implement a 24 hour Air Quality Forecast. Current forecast tools are usually based on emission inventories and meteorological forecasts, but significant work is being done in trying to assimilate both ground measurements as well as satellite measurements into these schemes. Clearly, the 'Holy Grail' would be the capability of assimilating full 3D (+ time) measurements. However, since satellite measurements are primarily passive, only total air column properties such as aerosol optical depth can be retrieved. In particular, it is not possible to determine the

  3. Impact of source region on the δ18O signal in snow: A case study from Mount Wrangell Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, Kent; Field, Robert; Benson, Carl

    2016-04-01

    The stable isotopic composition of water in ice cores is an important source of information on past climate variability. At its simplest level, the underlying assumption is that there is an empirical relationship between the normalized difference in the concentration for these stable isotopes and a specified local temperature at the ice core site. There are however non-local processes, such as a change in source region or a change in the atmospheric pathway, that can impact the stable isotope signal thereby complicating its use as a proxy for temperature. Here we investigate the importance of these non-local processes through the analysis of the synoptic-scale circulation during a snowfall event at the summit of Mount Wrangell, in south-central Alaska just to the east of the Gulf of Alaska. During this event there was, over a one-day period in which the local temperature was approximately constant, a change in δ18O that exceeded half that normally seen to occur between summer and winter in the region. As we shall show, this arose from a change in the source region, from the sub-tropical eastern Pacific to northeastern Asia for the snow that fell on Mount Wrangell during the event. The recognition that non-local processes play a role in the stable isotope record from the Gulf of Alaska region suggests that these records, in addition to a local temperature signal, also contain signals of large-scale modes of climate variability that impact the North Pacific region such as the Pacific North America teleconnection and the El-Nino Southern Oscillation.

  4. Impact of water management interventions on hydrology and ecosystem services in Garhkundar-Dabar watershed of Bundelkhand region, Central India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Ramesh; Garg, Kaushal K.; Wani, Suhas P.; Tewari, R. K.; Dhyani, S. K.

    2014-02-01

    Bundelkhand region of Central India is a hot spot of water scarcity, land degradation, poverty and poor socio-economic status. Impacts of integrated watershed development (IWD) interventions on water balance and different ecosystem services are analyzed in one of the selected watershed of 850 ha in Bundelkhand region. Improved soil, water and crop management interventions in Garhkundar-Dabar (GKD) watershed of Bundelkhand region in India enhanced ET to 64% as compared to 58% in untreated (control) watershed receiving 815 mm annual average rainfall. Reduced storm flow (21% vs. 34%) along with increased base flow (4.5% vs. 1.2%) and groundwater recharge (11% vs. 7%) of total rainfall received were recorded in treated watershed as compared to untreated control watershed. Economic Water productivity and total income increased from 2.5 to 5.0 INR m-3 and 11,500 to 27,500 INR ha-1 yr-1 after implementing integrated watershed development interventions in GKD watershed, respectively. Moreover IWD interventions helped in reducing soil loss more than 50% compared to control watershed. The results demonstrated that integrated watershed management practices addressed issues of poverty in GKD watershed. Benefit to cost ratio of project interventions was found three and pay back period within four years suggest economic feasibility to scale-up IWD interventions in Bundelkhend region. Scaling-up of integrated watershed management in drought prone rainfed areas with enabling policy and institutional support is expected to promote equity and livelihood along with strengthening various ecosystem services, however, region-specific analysis is needed to assess trade-offs for downstream areas along with onsite impact.

  5. Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holt, Jason; Schrum, Corinna; Cannaby, Heather; Daewel, Ute; Allen, Icarus; Artioli, Yuri; Bopp, Laurent; Butenschon, Momme; Fach, Bettina A.; Harle, James; Pushpadas, Dhanya; Salihoglu, Baris; Wakelin, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Regional seas are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas' ecosystems. In this paper we explore the response of five regional sea areas to potential future climate change, acting via atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial vectors. These include the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and are contrasted with a region of the Northeast Atlantic. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within these seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts on: long term changes in elemental budgets, seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton's exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional model systems each using a common global Earth System Model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and additional sensitivity experiments. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas we consider (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change

  6. The Impact of Region, Nitrogen Use Efficiency, and Grower Incentives on Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in Canola (Brassica napus) Production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammac, W. A.; Pan, W.; Koenig, R. T.; McCracken, V.

    2012-12-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has mandated through the second renewable fuel standard (RFS2) that biodiesel meet a minimum threshold requirement (50% reduction) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction compared to fossil diesel. This designation is determined by life cycle assessment (LCA) and carries with it potential for monetary incentives for biodiesel feedstock growers (Biomass Crop Assistance Program) and biodiesel processors (Renewable Identification Numbers). A national LCA was carried out for canola (Brassica napus) biodiesel feedstock by the EPA and it did meet the minimum threshold requirement. However, EPA's national LCA does not provide insight into regional variation in GHG mitigation. The authors propose for full GHG reduction potential of biofuels to be realized, LCA results must have regional specificity and should inform incentives for growers and processors on a regional basis. The objectives of this work were to determine (1) variation in biofuel feedstock production related GHG emissions between three agroecological zones (AEZs) in eastern Washington State (2) the impact of nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) on GHG mitigation potential for each AEZ and (3) the impact of incentives on adoption of oilseed production. Results from objective (1) revealed there is wide variability in range for GHG estimates both across and within AEZs based on variation in farming practices and environment. It is expected that results for objective (2) will show further GHG mitigation potential due to minimizing N use and therefore fertilizer transport and soil related GHG emission while potentially increasing biodiesel production per hectare. Regional based incentives may allow more timely achievement of goals for bio-based fuels production. Additionally, incentives may further increase GHG offsetting by promoting nitrogen conserving best management practices implementation. This research highlights the need for regional assessment/incentive based

  7. Statistical Analysis of the Impacts of Regional Transportation on the Air Quality in Beijing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Zhongwen; Zhang, Huiling; Tong, Lei; Xiao, Hang

    2016-04-01

    From October to December 2015, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region had experienced several severe haze events. In order to assess the effects of the regional transportation on the air quality in Beijing, the air monitoring data (PM2.5, SO2, NO2 and CO) from that period published by Chinese National Environmental Monitoring Center (CNEMC) was collected and analyzed with various statistical models. The cities within BTH area were clustered into three groups according to the geographical conditions, while the air pollutant concentrations of cities within a group sharing similar variation trends. The Granger causality test results indicate that significant causal relationships exist between the air pollutant data of Beijing and its surrounding cities (Baoding, Chengde, Tianjin and Zhangjiakou) for the reference period. Then, linear regression models were constructed to capture the interdependency among the multiple time series. It shows that the observed air pollutant concentrations in Beijing were well consistent with the model-fitted results. More importantly, further analysis suggests that the air pollutants in Beijing were strongly affected by regional transportation, as the local sources only contributed 17.88%, 27.12%, 14.63% and 31.36% of PM2.5, SO2, NO2 and CO concentrations, respectively. And the major foreign source for Beijing was from Southwest (Baoding) direction, account for more than 42% of all these air pollutants. Thus, by combining various statistical models, it may not only be able to quickly predict the air qualities of any cities on a regional scale, but also to evaluate the local and regional source contributions for a particular city. Key words: regional transportation, air pollution, Granger causality test, statistical models

  8. Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño/Southern Oscillation impacts on regional chlorophyll anomalies in the Indian Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Currie, J. C.; Lengaigne, M.; Vialard, J.; Kaplan, D. M.; Aumont, O.; Naqvi, S. W. A.; Maury, O.

    2013-10-01

    The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are independent climate modes, which frequently co-occur, driving significant interannual changes within the Indian Ocean. We use a four-decade hindcast from a coupled biophysical ocean general circulation model, to disentangle patterns of chlorophyll anomalies driven by these two climate modes. Comparisons with remotely sensed records show that the simulation competently reproduces the chlorophyll seasonal cycle, as well as open-ocean anomalies during the 1997/1998 ENSO and IOD event. Results suggest that anomalous surface and euphotic-layer chlorophyll blooms in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean in fall, and southern Bay of Bengal in winter, are primarily related to IOD forcing. A negative influence of IOD on chlorophyll concentrations is shown in a region around the southern tip of India in fall. IOD also depresses depth-integrated chlorophyll in the 5-10° S thermocline ridge region, yet the signal is negligible in surface chlorophyll. The only investigated region where ENSO has a greater influence on chlorophyll than does IOD, is in the Somalia upwelling region, where it causes a decrease in fall and winter chlorophyll by reducing local upwelling winds. Yet unlike most other regions examined, the combined explanatory power of IOD and ENSO in predicting depth-integrated chlorophyll anomalies is relatively low in this region, suggestive that other drivers are important there. We show that the chlorophyll impact of climate indices is frequently asymmetric, with a general tendency for larger positive than negative chlorophyll anomalies. Our results suggest that ENSO and IOD cause significant and predictable regional re-organisation of chlorophyll via their influence on near-surface oceanography. Resolving the details of these effects should improve our understanding, and eventually gain predictability, of interannual changes in Indian Ocean productivity, fisheries, ecosystems and carbon

  9. A framework to predict the impacts of shale gas infrastructures on the forest fragmentation of an agroforest region.

    PubMed

    Racicot, Alexandre; Babin-Roussel, Véronique; Dauphinais, Jean-François; Joly, Jean-Sébastien; Noël, Pascal; Lavoie, Claude

    2014-05-01

    We propose a framework to facilitate the evaluation of the impacts of shale gas infrastructures (well pads, roads, and pipelines) on land cover features, especially with regards to forest fragmentation. We used a geographic information system and realistic development scenarios largely inspired by the PA (United States) experience, but adapted to a region of QC (Canada) with an already fragmented forest cover and a high gas potential. The scenario with the greatest impact results from development limited by regulatory constraints only, with no access to private roads for connecting well pads to the public road network. The scenario with the lowest impact additionally integrates ecological constraints (deer yards, maple woodlots, and wetlands). Overall the differences between these two scenarios are relatively minor, with <1 % of the forest cover lost in each case. However, large areas of core forests would be lost in both scenarios and the number of forest patches would increase by 13-21 % due to fragmentation. The pipeline network would have a much greater footprint on the land cover than access roads. Using data acquired since the beginning of the shale gas industry, we show that it is possible, within a reasonable time frame, to produce a robust assessment of the impacts of shale gas extraction. The framework we propose could easily be applied to other contexts or jurisdictions.

  10. A framework to predict the impacts of shale gas infrastructures on the forest fragmentation of an agroforest region.

    PubMed

    Racicot, Alexandre; Babin-Roussel, Véronique; Dauphinais, Jean-François; Joly, Jean-Sébastien; Noël, Pascal; Lavoie, Claude

    2014-05-01

    We propose a framework to facilitate the evaluation of the impacts of shale gas infrastructures (well pads, roads, and pipelines) on land cover features, especially with regards to forest fragmentation. We used a geographic information system and realistic development scenarios largely inspired by the PA (United States) experience, but adapted to a region of QC (Canada) with an already fragmented forest cover and a high gas potential. The scenario with the greatest impact results from development limited by regulatory constraints only, with no access to private roads for connecting well pads to the public road network. The scenario with the lowest impact additionally integrates ecological constraints (deer yards, maple woodlots, and wetlands). Overall the differences between these two scenarios are relatively minor, with <1 % of the forest cover lost in each case. However, large areas of core forests would be lost in both scenarios and the number of forest patches would increase by 13-21 % due to fragmentation. The pipeline network would have a much greater footprint on the land cover than access roads. Using data acquired since the beginning of the shale gas industry, we show that it is possible, within a reasonable time frame, to produce a robust assessment of the impacts of shale gas extraction. The framework we propose could easily be applied to other contexts or jurisdictions. PMID:24554146

  11. A Framework to Predict the Impacts of Shale Gas Infrastructures on the Forest Fragmentation of an Agroforest Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Racicot, Alexandre; Babin-Roussel, Véronique; Dauphinais, Jean-François; Joly, Jean-Sébastien; Noël, Pascal; Lavoie, Claude

    2014-05-01

    We propose a framework to facilitate the evaluation of the impacts of shale gas infrastructures (well pads, roads, and pipelines) on land cover features, especially with regards to forest fragmentation. We used a geographic information system and realistic development scenarios largely inspired by the PA (United States) experience, but adapted to a region of QC (Canada) with an already fragmented forest cover and a high gas potential. The scenario with the greatest impact results from development limited by regulatory constraints only, with no access to private roads for connecting well pads to the public road network. The scenario with the lowest impact additionally integrates ecological constraints (deer yards, maple woodlots, and wetlands). Overall the differences between these two scenarios are relatively minor, with <1 % of the forest cover lost in each case. However, large areas of core forests would be lost in both scenarios and the number of forest patches would increase by 13-21 % due to fragmentation. The pipeline network would have a much greater footprint on the land cover than access roads. Using data acquired since the beginning of the shale gas industry, we show that it is possible, within a reasonable time frame, to produce a robust assessment of the impacts of shale gas extraction. The framework we propose could easily be applied to other contexts or jurisdictions.

  12. Assessment of climate change impact on hydrological extremes in two source regions of the Nile River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taye, M. T.; Ntegeka, V.; Ogiramoi, N. P.; Willems, P.

    2011-01-01

    The potential impact of climate change was investigated on the hydrological extremes of Nyando River and Lake Tana catchments, which are located in two source regions of the Nile River basin. Climate change scenarios were developed for rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo), considering 17 General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations to better understand the range of possible future change. They were constructed by transferring the extracted climate change signals to the observed series using a frequency perturbation downscaling approach, which accounts for the changes in rainfall extremes. Projected changes under two future SRES emission scenarios A1B and B1 for the 2050s were considered. Two conceptual hydrological models were calibrated and used for the impact assessment. Their difference in simulating the flows under future climate scenarios was also investigated. The results reveal increasing mean runoff and extreme peak flows for Nyando catchment for the 2050s while unclear trend is observed for Lake Tana catchment for mean volumes and high/low flows. The hydrological models for Lake Tana catchment, however, performed better in simulating the hydrological regimes than for Nyando, which obviously also induces a difference in the reliability of the extreme future projections for both catchments. The unclear impact result for Lake Tana catchment implies that the GCM uncertainty is more important for explaining the unclear trend than the hydrological models uncertainty. Nevertheless, to have a better understanding of future impact, hydrological models need to be verified for their credibility of simulating extreme flows.

  13. Martian Polar Region Impact Craters: Geometric Properties From Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garvin, J. B.; Sakimoto, S. E. H.; Frawley, J. J.; Matias, A.

    1998-01-01

    The Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) instrument onboard the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft has so far observed approximately 100 impact landforms in the north polar latitudes (>60 degrees N) of Mars. Correlation of the topography with Viking Orbiter images indicate that many of these are near-center profiles, and for some of the most northern craters, multiple data passes have been acquired. The northern high latitudes of Mars may contain substantial ground ice and be topped with seasonal frost (largely CO2 with some water), forming each winter. We have analyzed various diagnostic crater topologic parameters for this high-latitude crater population with the objective of characterizing impact features in north polar terrains, and we explore whether there is evidence of interaction with ground ice, frost, dune movement, or other polar processes. We find that there are substantial topographic variations from the characteristics of midlatitude craters in the polar craters that are not readily apparent from prior images. The transition from small simple craters to large complex craters is not well defined, as was observed in the midlatitude MOLA data (transition at 7-8 km). Additionally, there appear to be additional topographic complexities such as anomalously large central structures in many polar latitude impact features. It is not yet clear if these are due to target-induced differences in the formation of the crater or post-formation modifications from polar processes.

  14. Examining the Impact of Regional-Scale Air Quality Regulations on Human Health Outcomes

    EPA Science Inventory

    The NOx State Implementation Plan Call was issued by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to reduce the emissions of nitrogen oxides from the electric power sector to curtail the regional transport of the secondarily-formed pollutant, ozone. As emission control actions often...

  15. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIATION AND CHANGE ON MID-ATLANTIC REGION HYDROLOGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study analyzes periodic variations in the climate of the mid-Atlantic Region over the last 100 years and uses general circulation models (GCMs) to project major climate trends for the next hundred years. Historical data include the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for th...

  16. Wave like signatures in aerosol optical depth and associated radiative impacts over the central Himalayan region

    SciTech Connect

    Shukla, K. K.; Phanikumar, D. V.; Kumar, K.  Niranjan; Reddy, Kishore; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Newsom, Rob K.; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.

    2015-10-01

    In this study, we present a case study on 16 October 2011 to show the first observational evidence of the influence of short period gravity waves in aerosol transport during daytime over the central Himalayan region. The Doppler lidar data has been utilized to address the daytime boundary layer evolution and related aerosol dynamics over the site. Mixing layer height is estimated by wavelet covariance transform method and found to be ~ 0.7 km, AGL. Aerosol optical depth observations during daytime revealed an asymmetry showing clear enhancement during afternoon hours as compared to forenoon. Interestingly, Fourier and wavelet analysis of vertical velocity and attenuated backscatter showed similar 50-90 min short period gravity wave signatures during afternoon hours. Moreover, our observations showed that gravity waves are dominant within the boundary layer implying that the daytime boundary layer dynamics is playing a vital role in transporting the aerosols from surface to the top of the boundary layer. Similar modulations are also evident in surface parameters like temperature, relative humidity and wind speed indicating these waves are associated with the dynamical aspects over Himalayan region. Finally, time evolution of range-23 height indicator snapshots during daytime showed strong upward velocities especially during afternoon hours implying that convective processes through short period gravity waves plays a significant role in transporting aerosols from the nearby valley region to boundary layer top over the site. These observations also establish the importance of wave induced daytime convective boundary layer dynamics in the lower Himalayan region.

  17. Crater Count Mapping and Regional Geologic Context of the Area Surrounding the Gale Impact Structure, Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bustard, A.; Elliott, B. E.; Spray, J. G.; Thompson, L. M.

    2012-03-01

    Crater counting has been employed to understand the regional geologic context of a 500,000-square-kilometer area surrounding Gale Crater. The goal is to place the Gale landing site in a broader setting to complement results obtained from focused MSL rover activities.

  18. 76 FR 43994 - Termination of the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for the Proposed Regional Watershed...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-07-22

    ... Prepare an EIS was published in the Federal Register on Friday, March 20, 2009 (74 FR 11920), with subsequent amended announcements on May 8, 2009 (74 FR 21665) and August 11, 2009 (74 FR 40171). FOR FURTHER... Proposed Regional Watershed Supply Project in Wyoming and Colorado AGENCY: Department of the Army,...

  19. A Preliminary Synthesis of Modeled Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Regional Ozone Concentrations

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper provides a synthesis of results that have emerged from recent modeling studies of the potential sensitivity of U.S. regional ozone (O3) concentrations to global climate change (c. 2050). This research has been carried out under the auspices of an ongoing U....

  20. The impact of climate change on soil erosion in Great Lakes Region

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Quantifying changes in potential soil erosion under projections of changing climate is important for the sustainable management of land resources, especially for regions dominated by agricultural land use. One of the expected changes to climate in the future is an increase in the frequency and inten...

  1. Climate change impacts on soil erosion in the Great Lakes Region

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Quantifying changes in potential soil erosion under projections of changing climate is important for the sustainable management of land resources, especially for regions dominated by agricultural land use, as soil loss estimates will be helpful in identifying areas susceptible to erosion, targeting ...

  2. Projected impacts of climate change on regional capacities for global plant species richness.

    PubMed

    Sommer, Jan Henning; Kreft, Holger; Kier, Gerold; Jetz, Walter; Mutke, Jens; Barthlott, Wilhelm

    2010-08-01

    Climate change represents a major challenge to the maintenance of global biodiversity. To date, the direction and magnitude of net changes in the global distribution of plant diversity remain elusive. We use the empirical multi-variate relationships between contemporary water-energy dynamics and other non-climatic predictor variables to model the regional capacity for plant species richness (CSR) and its projected future changes. We find that across all analysed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios, relative changes in CSR increase with increased projected temperature rise. Between now and 2100, global average CSR is projected to remain similar to today (+0.3%) under the optimistic B1/+1.8 degrees C scenario, but to decrease significantly (-9.4%) under the 'business as usual' A1FI/+4.0 degrees C scenario. Across all modelled scenarios, the magnitude and direction of CSR change are geographically highly non-uniform. While in most temperate and arctic regions, a CSR increase is expected, the projections indicate a strong decline in most tropical and subtropical regions. Countries least responsible for past and present greenhouse gas emissions are likely to incur disproportionately large future losses in CSR, whereas industrialized countries have projected moderate increases. Independent of direction, we infer that all changes in regional CSR will probably induce on-site species turnover and thereby be a threat to native floras.

  3. Projected impacts of climate change on regional capacities for global plant species richness.

    PubMed

    Sommer, Jan Henning; Kreft, Holger; Kier, Gerold; Jetz, Walter; Mutke, Jens; Barthlott, Wilhelm

    2010-08-01

    Climate change represents a major challenge to the maintenance of global biodiversity. To date, the direction and magnitude of net changes in the global distribution of plant diversity remain elusive. We use the empirical multi-variate relationships between contemporary water-energy dynamics and other non-climatic predictor variables to model the regional capacity for plant species richness (CSR) and its projected future changes. We find that across all analysed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios, relative changes in CSR increase with increased projected temperature rise. Between now and 2100, global average CSR is projected to remain similar to today (+0.3%) under the optimistic B1/+1.8 degrees C scenario, but to decrease significantly (-9.4%) under the 'business as usual' A1FI/+4.0 degrees C scenario. Across all modelled scenarios, the magnitude and direction of CSR change are geographically highly non-uniform. While in most temperate and arctic regions, a CSR increase is expected, the projections indicate a strong decline in most tropical and subtropical regions. Countries least responsible for past and present greenhouse gas emissions are likely to incur disproportionately large future losses in CSR, whereas industrialized countries have projected moderate increases. Independent of direction, we infer that all changes in regional CSR will probably induce on-site species turnover and thereby be a threat to native floras. PMID:20335215

  4. Projected impacts of climate change on regional capacities for global plant species richness

    PubMed Central

    Sommer, Jan Henning; Kreft, Holger; Kier, Gerold; Jetz, Walter; Mutke, Jens; Barthlott, Wilhelm

    2010-01-01

    Climate change represents a major challenge to the maintenance of global biodiversity. To date, the direction and magnitude of net changes in the global distribution of plant diversity remain elusive. We use the empirical multi-variate relationships between contemporary water-energy dynamics and other non-climatic predictor variables to model the regional capacity for plant species richness (CSR) and its projected future changes. We find that across all analysed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios, relative changes in CSR increase with increased projected temperature rise. Between now and 2100, global average CSR is projected to remain similar to today (+0.3%) under the optimistic B1/+1.8°C scenario, but to decrease significantly (−9.4%) under the ‘business as usual’ A1FI/+4.0°C scenario. Across all modelled scenarios, the magnitude and direction of CSR change are geographically highly non-uniform. While in most temperate and arctic regions, a CSR increase is expected, the projections indicate a strong decline in most tropical and subtropical regions. Countries least responsible for past and present greenhouse gas emissions are likely to incur disproportionately large future losses in CSR, whereas industrialized countries have projected moderate increases. Independent of direction, we infer that all changes in regional CSR will probably induce on-site species turnover and thereby be a threat to native floras. PMID:20335215

  5. Regional air quality impacts of increased natural gas production and use in Texas.

    PubMed

    Pacsi, Adam P; Alhajeri, Nawaf S; Zavala-Araiza, Daniel; Webster, Mort D; Allen, David T

    2013-04-01

    Natural gas use in electricity generation in Texas was estimated, for gas prices ranging from $1.89 to $7.74 per MMBTU, using an optimal power flow model. Hourly estimates of electricity generation, for individual electricity generation units, from the model were used to estimate spatially resolved hourly emissions from electricity generation. Emissions from natural gas production activities in the Barnett Shale region were also estimated, with emissions scaled up or down to match demand in electricity generation as natural gas prices changed. As natural gas use increased, emissions decreased from electricity generation and increased from natural gas production. Overall, NOx and SO2 emissions decreased, while VOC emissions increased as natural gas use increased. To assess the effects of these changes in emissions on ozone and particulate matter concentrations, spatially and temporally resolved emissions were used in a month-long photochemical modeling episode. Over the month-long photochemical modeling episode, decreases in natural gas prices typical of those experienced from 2006 to 2012 led to net regional decreases in ozone (0.2-0.7 ppb) and fine particulate matter (PM) (0.1-0.7 μg/m(3)). Changes in PM were predominantly due to changes in regional PM sulfate formation. Changes in regional PM and ozone formation are primarily due to decreases in emissions from electricity generation. Increases in emissions from increased natural gas production were offset by decreasing emissions from electricity generation for all the scenarios considered. PMID:23441728

  6. Regional air quality impacts of increased natural gas production and use in Texas.

    PubMed

    Pacsi, Adam P; Alhajeri, Nawaf S; Zavala-Araiza, Daniel; Webster, Mort D; Allen, David T

    2013-04-01

    Natural gas use in electricity generation in Texas was estimated, for gas prices ranging from $1.89 to $7.74 per MMBTU, using an optimal power flow model. Hourly estimates of electricity generation, for individual electricity generation units, from the model were used to estimate spatially resolved hourly emissions from electricity generation. Emissions from natural gas production activities in the Barnett Shale region were also estimated, with emissions scaled up or down to match demand in electricity generation as natural gas prices changed. As natural gas use increased, emissions decreased from electricity generation and increased from natural gas production. Overall, NOx and SO2 emissions decreased, while VOC emissions increased as natural gas use increased. To assess the effects of these changes in emissions on ozone and particulate matter concentrations, spatially and temporally resolved emissions were used in a month-long photochemical modeling episode. Over the month-long photochemical modeling episode, decreases in natural gas prices typical of those experienced from 2006 to 2012 led to net regional decreases in ozone (0.2-0.7 ppb) and fine particulate matter (PM) (0.1-0.7 μg/m(3)). Changes in PM were predominantly due to changes in regional PM sulfate formation. Changes in regional PM and ozone formation are primarily due to decreases in emissions from electricity generation. Increases in emissions from increased natural gas production were offset by decreasing emissions from electricity generation for all the scenarios considered.

  7. IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIATION AND CHANGE ON MID-ATLANTIC REGION HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The sensitivity of hydrology and water resources to climate variation and climate change is assessed for the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) of the United States. Observed streamflow, groundwater, and water-quality data are shown to vary in association with climate variation. Projectio...

  8. Potential climate change impacts on water availability and cooling water demand in the Lusatian Lignite Mining Region, Central Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pohle, Ina; Koch, Hagen; Gädeke, Anne; Grünewald, Uwe; Kaltofen, Michael; Redetzky, Michael

    2014-05-01

    In the catchments of the rivers Schwarze Elster, Spree and Lusatian Neisse, hydrologic and socioeconomic systems are coupled via a complex water management system in which water users, reservoirs and water transfers are included. Lignite mining and electricity production are major water users in the region: To allow for open pit lignite mining, ground water is depleted and released into the river system while cooling water is used in the thermal power plants. In order to assess potential climate change impacts on water availability in the catchments as well as on the water demand of the thermal power plants, a climate change impact assessment was performed using the hydrological model SWIM and the long term water management model WBalMo. The potential impacts of climate change were considered by using three regional climate change scenarios of the statistical regional climate model STAR assuming a further temperature increase of 0, 2 or 3 K by the year 2050 in the region respectively. Furthermore, scenarios assuming decreasing mining activities in terms of a decreasing groundwater depression cone, lower mining water discharges, and reduced cooling water demand of the thermal power plants are considered. In the standard version of the WBalMo model cooling water demand is considered as static with regard to climate variables. However, changes in the future cooling water demand over time according to the plans of the local mining and power plant operator are considered. In order to account for climate change impacts on the cooling water demand of the thermal power plants, a dynamical approach for calculating water demand was implemented in WBalMo. As this approach is based on air temperature and air humidity, the projected air temperature and air humidity of the climate scenarios at the locations of the power plants are included in the calculation. Due to increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation declining natural and managed discharges, and hence a lower

  9. Regional Climate Modeling of West African Summer Monsoon Climate: Impact of Historical Boundary Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kebe, I.

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we analyze and intercompare the performance of an ensemble of three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) driven by three set of Global Climate Models (GCMs), in reproducing seasonal mean climatologies with their annual cycle and the key features of West African summer monsoon over 20 years period (1985-2004) during the present day. The results show that errors in lateral boundary conditions from the GCM members, have an unexpected way on the skill of the RCMs in reproducing regional climate features such as the West African Monsoon features and the annual cycle of precipitation and temperature in terms of outperforming the GCM simulation. It also shows the occurrence of the West African Monsoon jump, the intensification and northward shift of the Saharan Heat Low (SHL) as expressed in some RCMs than the GCMs. Most RCMs also capture the mean annual cycle of precipitation and temperature, including, single and double-peaked during the summer months, in terms of events and amplitude. In a series of RCMs and GCMs experiments between the Sahara region and equatorial Africa, the presence of strong positive meridional temperature gradients at the surface and a strong meridional gradients in the potential temperatures near the surface are obvious, indicating the region of strong vertical shear development enough to establish easterly flow such as the African easterly jet. In addition, the isentropic potential vorticity (IPV) gradient decreases northward in the lower troposphere across northern Africa, with the maximum reversal on the 315-K surface. The region with negative IPV gradient favors the potential instability which has been associated with the growth of easterly waves.

  10. A comparison of in-house and regionalized computerized tomography scanning: clinical impact and cost.

    PubMed Central

    Elixhauser, A; Reker, D M; Gillespie, K N; Fletcher, J; Wolinsky, F D

    1990-01-01

    Over a two-year interval, computerized tomography (CT) scans at an urban, 400-bed Department of Veterans Affairs medical center (VAMC) were obtained in three ways. First, an in-house low-efficiency machine was used. Then, scans were done at another area hospital, in effect duplicating some aspects of regionalizing services. Finally, a high-efficiency in-house machine was used. Clinical outcomes and costs of diagnosing 181 bronchogenic cancer patients were compared across the three time periods to identify any differences associated with regionalization of CT services. Patient groups were homogeneous with respect to sociodemographic characteristics, clinical presentation, and severity of disease. The first part of the analysis investigated whether the site of CT scanning affected clinical outcomes. Diagnostic procedures, surgical results, mortality, and length of stay were compared using one-way analysis of variance. Significant differences were found only for conventional tomography and CT utilization rates. While conventional tomography declined across the periods, CT utilization increased, exceeding national trends. The second part of the analysis examined the costs of CT scanning. During the regionalized period, the hospital paid a fixed fee of $519 per scan. Estimated costs of in-house scans were $285 in the low-efficiency and $141 in the high-efficiency periods. Charge-based payments made to the external facility and differences in the volumes of patients scanned internally account for the cost differences. The analysis showed that while regionalized CT scanning did not compromise the quality of care for these VA patients, it was more costly. Results suggest that VA hospital administrators should carefully consider ownership and payment arrangements when comparing regionalized and in-house provision of services. PMID:2109740

  11. Impacts of small arteriovenous malformations (AVM) on regional cerebral blood flow and glucose metabolism

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, R.S.; Yeh, S.H.; Chu, L.S.

    1994-05-01

    This study assessed the effects of small AVMs (<3 cm) on the regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) by Tc-99m HMPAO SPECT and on the glucose metabolism (rCGlcM) by [F-18]-FDG PET. Seven AVM patients (pts) were studied. All AVMs were confirmed by cerebral angiography and CT/MR scans. Tc-99m HMPAO SPECT and [F-18]-PDG PET images were interpreted visually to detect the changes of rCBF and rCGlcM. All pts except one brain stem AVM had defects in the regions of nidi on HMPAO and FDG images. FDG PET disclosed low rCGlcM in surrounding areas of AVMs in 6 pts, while HMPAO SPECT detected only 4 cases. One AVM had increased rCBF surrounding the nidus despite of decreased rCGlcM in the same region. Five pts had abnormal rCGlcM over ipsilateral remote cortex but only one had corresponding abnormal rCBF. Contralateral cortical hypofunction was noted in 3 pts by FDG PET but none by HMPAO SPECT. Cross cerebellar diaschisis was found in 2 AVMs by FDG PET and only one by HMPAO SPECT. All regions with abnormal HMPAO uptake did not look as discernibly as seen on the FDG PET scan. CT/MR scans detected the nidi of AVMs of all pts and old hemorrhage in one pt. In conclusion, either HMPAO SPECT or FDG PET is sensitive to detect the functional abnormalities in the region of nidus of small AVM and the surrounding brain tissue. FDG PET is better than HMPAO SPECT to detect functional changes in the remote cortex and diaschisis.

  12. Satellite-guided hydro-economic analysis for integrated management and prediction of the impact of droughts on agricultural regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maneta, M. P.; Howitt, R.; Kimball, J. S.

    2013-12-01

    Agricultural activity can exacerbate or buffer the impact of climate variability, especially droughts, on the hydrologic and socioeconomic conditions of rural areas. Potential negative regional impacts of droughts include impoverishment of agricultural regions, deterioration or overuse of water resources, risk of monoculture, and regional dependence on external food markets. Policies that encourage adequate management practices in the face of adverse climatic events are critical to preserve rural livelihoods and to ensure a sustainable future for agriculture. Diagnosing and managing drought effects on agricultural production, on the social and natural environment, and on limited water resources, is highly complex and interdisciplinary. The challenges that decision-makers face to mitigate the impact of water shortage are social, agronomic, economic and environmental in nature and therefore must be approached from an integrated multidisciplinary point of view. Existing observation technologies, in conjunction with models and assimilation methods open the opportunity for novel interdisciplinary analysis tools to support policy and decision making. We present an integrated modeling and observation framework driven by satellite remote sensing and other ancillary information from regional monitoring networks to enable robust regional assessment and prediction of drought impacts on agricultural production, water resources, management decisions and socioeconomic policy. The core of this framework is a hydroeconomic model of agricultural production that assimilates remote sensing inputs to quantify the amount of land, water, fertilizer and labor farmers allocate for each crop they choose to grow on a seasonal basis in response to changing climatic conditions, including drought. A regional hydroclimatologic model provides biophysical constraints to an economic model of agricultural production based on a class of models referred to as positive mathematical programming (PMP

  13. A near real time regional JPSS and GOES-R data assimilation system for high impact weather research and applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, J.; Wang, P.; Han, H.; Schmit, T. J.

    2014-12-01

    JPSS and GOES-R observations play important role in numerical weather prediction (NWP). However, how to best represent the information from satellite observations and how to get value added information from these satellite data into regional NWP models, including both radiance and derived products, still need investigations. In order to enhance the applications of JPSS and GOES-R data in regional NWP for high impact weather forecasts, scientists from Cooperative Institute of Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) at University of Wisconsin-Madison have recently developed a near realtime regional Satellite Data Assimilation system for Tropical storm forecasts (SDAT) (http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/sdat). The system consists of the community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) assimilation system and the advanced Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model. In addition to assimilate GOES, AMSUA/AMSUB, HIRS, MHS, ATMS (Suomi-NPP), AIRS and IASI radiances, the SDAT is also able to assimilate satellite-derived products such as hyperspectral IR retrieved temperature and moisture profiles, total precipitable water (TPW), GOES Sounder (and future GOES-R) layer precipitable water (LPW) and GOES Imager atmospheric motion vector (AMV) products into the system. Real time forecasted GOES infrared (IR) images simulated from SDAT output have also been part of the SDAT system for applications and forecast evaluations. To set up the system parameters, a series of experiments have been carried out to test the impacts of different initialization schemes, including different background error matrix, different NCEP global model date sets, and different WRF model horizontal resolutions. Using SDAT as a research testbed, researches have been conducted for different satellite data impacts study, as well as different techniques for handling clouds in radiance assimilation. Since the fall of 2013, the SDAT system has been running in near real time. The results from historical cases and 2014

  14. Impacts Of Global/Regional Climate Changes On Environment And Health: Need For Integrated Research And Education Collaboration (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tuluri, F.

    2013-12-01

    The realization of long term changes in climate in research community has to go beyond the comfort zone through climate literacy in academics. Higher education on climate change is the platform to bring together the otherwise disconnected factors such as effective discovery, decision making, innovation, interdisciplinary collaboration, Climate change is a complex process that may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system, or to variations in natural or anthropogenic (human-driven) external forcing. Global climate change indicates a change in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for several decades or longer. This includes changes in average weather conditions on Earth, such as a change in average global temperature, as well as changes in how frequently regions experience heat waves, droughts, floods, storms, and other extreme weather. It is important to examine the effects of climate variations on human health and disorders in order to take preventive measures. Similarly, the influence of climate changes on animal management practices, pests and pest management systems, and high value crops such as citrus and vegetables is also equally important for investigation. New genetic agricultural varieties must be explored, and pilot studies should examine biotechnology transfer. Recent climate model improvements have resulted in an enhanced ability to simulate many aspects of climate variability and extremes. However, they are still characterized by systematic errors and limitations in accurately simulating more precisely regional climate conditions. The present situations warrant developing climate literacy on the synergistic impacts of environmental change, and improve development, testing and validation of integrated stress impacts through computer modeling. In the present study we present a detailed study of the current status on the impacts of global/regional climate changes on environment and health with a view

  15. Impact of 2c warming over the vulnerable areas of Africa region in the AFRICA-CORDEX simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dell'Aquila, Alessandro; Calmanti, Sandro; Mendlik, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    We analyse the foreseen climatic changes over the vulnerable areas of African Continent for the most relevant variable, taking advantage of the new regional simulations produced in the AFRICA-CORDEX framework available in the framework of IMPACT2C EU project activities. The focus of the analysis is on the comparison of present climate condition with the period corresponding to +2°C (and +1.5°C) in the future scenario, providing information on the challenges and opportunities that the foreseen changes in hydrological cycle implied by global warming could create in vulnerable areas of African continent as Nile and Niger basins. We use simulations of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios that typically reach the + 2°C threshold during the next century. We explore two sources of uncertainty. First, we consider the full consistency between global and regional models which is a critical source of uncertainty especially in this area where small scale processes have a direct impact on large scale circulation patterns. We find that, by looking at long term scenarios, significant differences exist between the scenarios produce with global and regional climate models. The second dimension of uncertainty, of enormous practical consequences in the field of climate change studies, is the role of climate variability compared to long term tendencies. In this case, we highlight that, although statistically significant, the tendency in climate variable that are most commonly used in impact studies (temperature, rainfall) is comparable with the range of variability observed in the present climate.

  16. Impacts of uplift of northern Tibetan Plateau and formation of Asian inland deserts on regional climate and environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Xiaodong; Sun, Hui; Miao, Yunfa; Dong, Buwen; Yin, Zhi-Yong

    2015-05-01

    Based on the geological evidence that the northern Tibetan Plateau (NTP) had an uplift of a finite magnitude since the Miocene and the major Asian inland deserts formed in the early Pliocene, a regional climate model (RegCM4.1) with a horizontal resolution of 50 km was used to explore the effects of the NTP uplift and the related aridification of inland Asia on regional climate. We designed three numerical experiments including the control experiment representing the present-day condition, the high-mountain experiment representing the early Pliocene condition with uplifted NTP but absence of the Asian inland deserts, and the low-mountain experiment representing the mid-Miocene condition with reduced topography in the NTP (by as much as 2400 m) and also absence of the deserts. Our simulation results indicated that the NTP uplift caused significant reductions in annual precipitation in a broad region of inland Asia north of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) mainly due to the enhanced rain shadow effect of the mountains and changes in the regional circulations. However, four mountainous regions located in the uplift showed significant increases in precipitation, stretching from the Pamir Plateau in the west to the Qilian Mountains in the east. These mountainous areas also experienced different changes in the rainfall seasonality with the greatest increases occurring during the respective rainy seasons, predominantly resulted from the enhanced orographically forced upwind ascents. The appearance of the major deserts in the inland Asia further reduced precipitation in the region and led to increased dust emission and deposition fluxes, while the spatial patterns of dust deposition were also changed, not only in the regions of uplift-impacted topography, but also in the downwind regions. One major contribution from this study is the comparison of the simulation results with 11 existing geological records representing the moisture conditions from Miocene to Pliocene. The

  17. Urban impacts on regional carbonaceous aerosols: case study in central Texas.

    PubMed

    Barrett, Tate E; Sheesley, Rebecca J

    2014-08-01

    Rural and background sites provide valuable information on the concentration and optical properties of organic, elemental, and water-soluble organic carbon (OC, EC, and WSOC), which are relevant for understanding the climate forcing potential of regional atmospheric aerosols. To quantify climate- and air quality-relevant characteristics of carbonaceous aerosol in the central United States, a regional background site in central Texas was chosen for long-term measurement. Back trajectory (BT) analysis, ambient OC, EC, and WSOC concentrations and absorption parameters are reported for the first 15 months of a long-term campaign (May 2011-August 2012). BT analysis indicates consistent north-south airflow connecting central Texas to the Central Plains. Central Texas aerosols exhibited seasonal trends with increased fine particulate matter (< 2.5 microm aerodynamic diameter, PM2.5) and OC during the summer (PM2.5 = 10.9 microg m(-3) and OC = 3.0 microg m(-3)) and elevated EC during the winter (0.22 microg m(-3)). When compared to measurements in Dallas and Houston, TX, central Texas OC appears to have mixed urban and rural sources. However central Texas EC appears to be dominated by transport of urban emissions. WSOC averaged 63% of the annual OC, with little seasonal variability in this ratio. To monitor brown carbon (BrC), absorption was measured for the aqueous WSOC extracts. Light absorption coefficients for EC and BrC were highest during summer (EC MAC = 11 m2 g(-1) and BRC MAE365 = 0.15 m2 g(-1)). Results from optical analysis indicate that regional aerosol absorption is mostly due to EC with summertime peaks in BrC attenuation. This study represents the first reported values of WSOC absorption, MAE365, for the central United States. Implications: Background concentration and absorption measurements are essential in determining regional potential radiative forcing due to atmospheric aerosols. Back trajectory, chemical, and optical analysis of PM2.5 was used to

  18. Urban impacts on regional carbonaceous aerosols: case study in central Texas.

    PubMed

    Barrett, Tate E; Sheesley, Rebecca J

    2014-08-01

    Rural and background sites provide valuable information on the concentration and optical properties of organic, elemental, and water-soluble organic carbon (OC, EC, and WSOC), which are relevant for understanding the climate forcing potential of regional atmospheric aerosols. To quantify climate- and air quality-relevant characteristics of carbonaceous aerosol in the central United States, a regional background site in central Texas was chosen for long-term measurement. Back trajectory (BT) analysis, ambient OC, EC, and WSOC concentrations and absorption parameters are reported for the first 15 months of a long-term campaign (May 2011-August 2012). BT analysis indicates consistent north-south airflow connecting central Texas to the Central Plains. Central Texas aerosols exhibited seasonal trends with increased fine particulate matter (< 2.5 microm aerodynamic diameter, PM2.5) and OC during the summer (PM2.5 = 10.9 microg m(-3) and OC = 3.0 microg m(-3)) and elevated EC during the winter (0.22 microg m(-3)). When compared to measurements in Dallas and Houston, TX, central Texas OC appears to have mixed urban and rural sources. However central Texas EC appears to be dominated by transport of urban emissions. WSOC averaged 63% of the annual OC, with little seasonal variability in this ratio. To monitor brown carbon (BrC), absorption was measured for the aqueous WSOC extracts. Light absorption coefficients for EC and BrC were highest during summer (EC MAC = 11 m2 g(-1) and BRC MAE365 = 0.15 m2 g(-1)). Results from optical analysis indicate that regional aerosol absorption is mostly due to EC with summertime peaks in BrC attenuation. This study represents the first reported values of WSOC absorption, MAE365, for the central United States. Implications: Background concentration and absorption measurements are essential in determining regional potential radiative forcing due to atmospheric aerosols. Back trajectory, chemical, and optical analysis of PM2.5 was used to

  19. Air quality during the 2008 Beijing Olympics: secondary pollutants and regional impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, T.; Nie, W.; Gao, J.; Xue, L. K.; Gao, X. M.; Wang, X. F.; Qiu, J.; Poon, C. N.; Meinardi, S.; Blake, D.; Wang, S. L.; Ding, A. J.; Chai, F. H.; Zhang, Q. Z.; Wang, W. X.

    2010-08-01

    This paper presents the first results of the measurements of trace gases and aerosols at three surface sites in and outside Beijing before and during the 2008 Olympics. The official air pollution index near the Olympic Stadium and the data from our nearby site revealed an obvious association between air quality and meteorology and different responses of secondary and primary pollutants to the control measures. Ambient concentrations of vehicle-related nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) at an urban site dropped by 25% and 20-45% in the first two weeks after full control was put in place, but the levels of ozone, sulfate and nitrate in PM2.5 increased by 16%, 64%, 37%, respectively, compared to the period prior to the full control; wind data and back trajectories indicated the contribution of regional pollution from the North China Plain. Air quality (for both primary and secondary pollutants) improved significantly during the Games, which were also associated with the changes in weather conditions (prolonged rainfall, decreased temperature, and more frequent air masses from clean regions). A comparison of the ozone data at three sites on eight ozone-pollution days, when the air masses were from the southeast-south-southwest sector, showed that regional pollution sources contributed >34-88% to the peak ozone concentrations at the urban site in Beijing. Regional sources also contributed significantly to the CO concentrations in urban Beijing. Ozone production efficiencies at two sites were low (~3 ppbv/ppbv), indicating that ozone formation was being controlled by VOCs. Compared with data collected in 2005 at a downwind site, the concentrations of ozone, sulfur dioxide (SO2), total sulfur (SO2+PM2.5 sulfate), carbon monoxide (CO), reactive aromatics (toluene and xylenes) sharply decreased (by 8-64%) in 2008, but no significant changes were observed for the concentrations of PM2.5, fine sulfate, total odd reactive nitrogen (NOy), and longer

  20. Impacts of ionospheric outflow on storm-time F-region thermospheric mass density modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, B.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Lei, J.; Wang, W.; Lotko, W.; Lyon, J.

    2015-12-01

    Ionospheric outflow plays an important role during storm-time magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere coupling. In this study, we use the coupled multifluid Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (MFLFM) model and NCAR-Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) to investigate the impacts of ionospheric outflow on the evolutions of high-latitude F-region thermospheric mass density during CME storms. Various physical processes that affect the energy input from the magnetosphere to ionosphere-thermosphere system are also implemented in the coupled global model including localized electromagnetic energy deposition, direct-entry cusp particle precipitation, broadband electron precipitation. The accuracy of modeling polar cap F-region thermospheric mass density during intense CME storms (kp>8) are estimated through event-based data-model comparisons (CHAMP/GRACE). These comparison studies are also used to investigate the relative importantce of various physical processes that relate to the coupling between the magnetosphere and high-latitude ionosphere-thermosphere.

  1. Impacts of climate change on sub-regional electricity demand and distribution in the southern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, Melissa R.; Fernandez, Steven J.; Fu, Joshua S.; Olama, Mohammed M.

    2016-08-01

    High average temperatures lead to high regional electricity demand for cooling buildings, and large populations generally require more aggregate electricity than smaller ones do. Thus, future global climate and population changes will present regional infrastructure challenges regarding changing electricity demand. However, without spatially explicit representation of this demand or the ways in which it might change at the neighbourhood scale, it is difficult to determine which electricity service areas are most vulnerable and will be most affected by these changes. Here we show that detailed projections of changing local electricity demand patterns are viable and important for adaptation planning at the urban level in a changing climate. Employing high-resolution and spatially explicit tools, we find that electricity demand increases caused by temperature rise have the greatest impact over the next 40 years in areas serving small populations, and that large population influx stresses any affected service area, especially during peak demand.

  2. Impacts of climate change on sub-regional electricity demand and distribution in the southern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, Melissa R.; Fernandez, Steven J.; Fu, Joshua S.; Olama, Mohammed M.

    2016-08-01

    High average temperatures lead to high regional electricity demand for cooling buildings, and large populations generally require more aggregate electricity than smaller ones do. Thus, future global climate and population changes will present regional infrastructure challenges regarding changing electricity demand. However, without spatially explicit representation of this demand or the ways in which it might change at the neighbourhood scale, it is difficult to determine which electricity service areas are most vulnerable and will be most affected by these changes. Here we show that detailed projections of changing local electricity demand patterns are viable and important for adaptation planning at the urban level in a changing climate. Employing high-resolution and spatially explicit tools, we find that electricity demand increases caused by temperature rise have the greatest impact over the next 40 years in areas serving small populations, and that large population influx stresses any affected service area, especially during peak demand.

  3. Fingerprinting the Impacts of Aerosols on Long-Term Trends of the Indian Summer Monsoon Regional Rainfall

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Laul, K. M.; Kim, K. M.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we present corroborative observational evidences from satellites, in-situ observations, and re-analysis data showing possible impacts of absorbing aerosols (black carbon and dust) on subseasonal and regional summer monsoon rainfall over India. We find that increased absorbing aerosols in the Indo-Gangetic Plain in recent decades may have lead to long-term warming of the upper troposphere over northern India and the Tibetan Plateau, enhanced rainfall in northern India and the Himalayas foothill regions in the early part (may-June) of the monsoon season, followed by diminished rainfall over central and southern India in the latter part (July-August) of the monsoon season. These signals which are consistent with current theories of atmospheric heating and solar dimming by aerosol and induced cloudiness in modulating the Indian monsoon, would have been masked by conventional method of using al-India rainfall averaged over the entire monsoon season.

  4. Morphological impacts of flow events of varying magnitude on ephemeral channels in a semiarid region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hooke, J. M.

    2016-01-01

    Flows in ephemeral channels in semiarid areas are only occasional, and channel changes are episodic; but the flash floods can be devastating and have major geomorphological impacts. Data on morphological impacts of flows in semiarid areas are needed to increase understanding of the dynamics and variability of geomorphic responses in such channels. For this purpose nine reaches of river channel in three catchments in SE Spain - the Nogalte, Torrealvilla, and Salada - have been sites for measurement of flows and their effects over the period 1997-2012. The sites encompass a range of channel size, channel morphology, substrate, vegetation, and position within the catchments. A major difference is between schist and marl bedrock areas. Peak flow stage has been recorded and topography surveyed at frequent intervals and after major flow events. Over the 16-year period, an average of 0.5 flow events per year has been recorded at the schist sites, and an average of one per year at the marl sites; but occurrence has been highly variable from year to year. Threshold daily rainfall for channel flow is mostly 15-20 mm, but higher rainfalls do not always produce flow. One to two major floods have occurred in each of the catchments in the period, including the extreme flood event of September 2012 in the Nogalte catchment. Measured morphological changes have occurred between 2 and 10 times at the monitored sites. The same size flow can have differing effects depending on the state of the system. Low flow can mobilise sediment without producing much morphological change. The long-term trajectory of the reaches and the sediment substrate has a major influence on response to events. Channel change is governed by threshold values of hydraulic conditions. The measurements provide an indication of the scale of maximum erosion and deposition that occurs within the channels and on the floodplains over a range of flow magnitudes and the flow impacts that need to be considered in

  5. Formation of secondary organic aerosol in the Paris pollution plume and its impact on surrounding regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Q. J.; Beekmann, M.; Freney, E.; Sellegri, K.; Pichon, J. M.; Schwarzenboeck, A.; Colomb, A.; Bourrianne, T.; Michoud, V.; Borbon, A.

    2015-03-01

    Secondary pollutants such as ozone, secondary inorganic aerosol, and secondary organic aerosol formed in the plume of megacities can affect regional air quality. In the framework of the FP7/EU MEGAPOLI project, an intensive campaign was launched in the Greater Paris Region in July 2009. The major objective was to quantify different sources of organic aerosol (OA) within a megacity and in its plume. In this study, we use airborne measurements aboard the French ATR-42 aircraft to evaluate the regional chemistry-transport model CHIMERE within and downwind the Paris region. Slopes of the plume OA levels vs. Ox (= O3 + NO2) show secondary OA (SOA) formation normalized with respect to photochemical activity and are used for specific evaluation of the OA scheme in the model. Simulated and observed slopes are in good agreement, when the most realistic "high-NOx" yields are used in the Volatility-Basis-Set scheme implemented into the model. In addition, these slopes are relatively stable from one day to another, which suggest that they are characteristic for the given megacity plume environment. Since OA within the plume is mainly formed from anthropogenic precursors (VOC and primary OA, POA), this work allows a specific evaluation of anthropogenic SOA and SOA formed from primary semi-volatile and intermediate volatile VOCs (SI-SOA) formation scheme in a model. For specific plumes, this anthropogenic OA build-up can reach about 10 μg m-3. For the average of the month of July 2009, maximum increases occur close to the agglomeration for primary OA are noticed at several tens (for POA) to hundred (for SI-SOA) kilometers of distance from the Paris agglomeration.

  6. The impacts of climate changes in the renewable energy resources in the Caribbean region

    SciTech Connect

    Erickson III, David J

    2010-02-01

    Assessment of renewable energy resources such as surface solar radiation and wind current has great relevance in the development of local and regional energy policies. This paper examines the variability and availability of these resources as a function of possible climate changes for the Caribbean region. Global climate changes have been reported in the last decades, causing changes in the atmospheric dynamics, which affects the net solar radiation balance at the surface and the wind strength and direction. For this investigation, the future climate changes for the Caribbean are predicted using the parallel climate model (PCM) and it is coupled with the numerical model regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS) to simulate the solar and wind energy spatial patterns changes for the specific case of the island of Puerto Rico. Numerical results from PCM indicate that the Caribbean basin from 2041 to 2055 will experience a slight decrease in the net surface solar radiation (with respect to the years 1996-2010), which is more pronounced in the western Caribbean sea. Results also indicate that the easterly winds have a tendency to increase in its magnitude, especially from the years 2070 to 2098. The regional model showed that important areas to collect solar energy are located in the eastern side of Puerto Rico, while the more intense wind speed is placed around the coast. A future climate change is expected in the Caribbean that will result in higher energy demands, but both renewable energy sources will have enough intensity to be used in the future as alternative energy resources to mitigate future climate changes.

  7. Impacts of Regional Climate Change on Biogenic Emissions and Air Quality

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Yang; Hu, X.-M.; Leung, Lai R.; Gustafson, William I.

    2008-09-25

    Regional air quality simulations are conducted for four summers (2001, 2002, 2051, and 2052) to examine the sensitivity of air quality to potential regional climate change in the U.S. In response to the predicted warmer climate in 2051/2052, emissions of isoprene and terpene increase by 20-92.1% and 20-56%, respectively, over most of the domain. Surface O3, which is sensitive to changes in temperature and solar radiation but relatively insensitive to changes in PBL height and cloud fraction, increase by up to 19-20%. PM2.5, its compositions, and visibility exhibit an overall negative sensitivity (decrease by up to 40%), resulting from the competition of the negative temperature effect and positive emission/temperature effects. While the response of dry deposition is governed by the negative sensitivity of surface resistances, that of wet deposition is either positive or negative, depending on the relative dominancy of changes in PM2.5 and precipitation. Overall the net climatic effect dominates changes in O3, PM2.5, wet and total deposition, and the net biogenic emission effect is important for isoprene, organic matter, visibility, and dry deposition over several regions. Models that do not include secondary organic aerosol formation from isoprene photooxidation may underestimate by at least 20% the air quality responses to future climate changes over many areas of the modeling domain. Both regional climate and air quality exhibit interannual variability, particularly in temperature, isoprene emissions, and PM2.5 concentrations, indicating a need for long-term simulations to predict future air quality.

  8. Empirical evidence of direct impact of extreme temperatures on wheat yield in major wheat growing region of India.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murari, K. K.; Mahato, S.; Jayaraman, T.

    2014-12-01

    Exposure to extreme temperatures during the grain filling stage of winter wheat may lead to reduction in the yield. Over the last decade, there has been an increasing trend of exposure to extreme temperature conditions, particularly during crop growing season. The Indo Gangetic plain (IGP) is a particular concern since an optimal temperature for wheat production already exists in the region. This is also a major concern for global wheat production since the region accounts for about 15% of the global wheat production. Previous studies conducted in this region have found a strong impact of extreme temperatures causing an early occurrence of senescence, defined as the last developmental stage of the plant. The early occurrence of senescence period induces shortening of growing season length, which is a critical grain filling stage. However, the direct effect of extreme temperatures on the yield data has not yet been looked at, which reflects the impact of extreme temperature at different growth stages including anthesis (flowering) and the grain-filling stage. Here in this study, we explore the relationship of extreme heat conditions on the yield using fixed-effect panel data model for the districts in the IGP region. The first result indicates approximately 16% reduction in wheat yield with 1˚C rise in mean growing season temperature. There is a significant negative trend between the yield and the fourth quartile of extreme temperature (>34˚C) days. Furthermore, we establish a scope of existence of a nonlinear relationship between temperature and yield, which needs to be further examined.

  9. Impacts of regional mixing on the temperature structure of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Part 1: Vertically uniform vertical diffusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Furue, Ryo; Jia, Yanli; McCreary, Julian P.; Schneider, Niklas; Richards, Kelvin J.; Müller, Peter; Cornuelle, Bruce D.; Avellaneda, Nidia Martínez; Stammer, Detlef; Liu, Chuanyu; Köhl, Armin

    2015-07-01

    We investigate the sensitivity of numerical-model solutions to regional changes in vertical diffusion. Specifically, we vary the background diffusion coefficient, κb, within spatially distinct subregions of the tropical Pacific, assess the impacts of those changes, and diagnose the processes that account for them. Solutions respond to a diffusion anomaly, δκb, in three ways. Initially, there is a fast response (several months), due to the interaction of rapidly-propagating, barotropic and gravity waves with eddies and other mesoscale features. It is followed by a local response (roughly one year), the initial growth and spatial pattern of which can be explained by one-dimensional (vertical) diffusion. At this stage, temperature and salinity anomalies are generated that are either associated with a change in density ("dynamical" anomalies) or without one ("spiciness" anomalies). In a final adjustment stage, the dynamical and spiciness anomalies spread to remote regions by radiation of Rossby and Kelvin waves and by advection, respectively. In near-equilibrium solutions, dynamical anomalies are generally much larger in the latitude band of the forcing, but the impact of off-equatorial forcing by δκb on the equatorial temperature structure is still significant. Spiciness anomalies spread equatorward within the pycnocline, where they are carried to the equator as part of the subsurface branch of the Pacific Subtropical Cells, and spiciness also extends to the equator via western-boundary currents. Forcing near and at the equator generates strong dynamical anomalies, and sometimes additional spiciness anomalies, at pycnocline depths. The total response of the equatorial temperature structure to δκb in various regions depends on the strength and spatial pattern of the generation of each signal within the forcing region as well as on the processes of its spreading to the equator.

  10. Impact of climate change on human-wildlife-ecosystem interactions in the Trans-Himalaya region of Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aryal, Achyut; Brunton, Dianne; Raubenheimer, David

    2014-02-01

    The Trans-Himalaya region boasts an immense biodiversity which includes several threatened species and supports the livelihood of local human populations. Our aim in this study was to evaluate the impact of recent climate change on the biodiversity and human inhabitants of the upper Mustang region of the Trans-Himalaya, Nepal. We found that the average annual temperature in the upper Mustang region has increased by 0.13 °C per year over the last 23 years; a higher annual temperature increase than experienced in other parts of Himalaya. A predictive model suggested that the mean annual temperature will double by 2161 to reach 20 °C in the upper Mustang region. The combined effects of increased temperature and diminished snowfall have resulted in a reduction in the area of land suitable for agriculture. Most seriously affected are Samjung village (at 4,100 m altitude) and Dhey village (at 3,800 m) in upper Mustang, where villagers have been forced to relocate to an area with better water availability. Concurrent with the recent change in climate, there have been substantial changes in vegetation communities. Between 1979 and 2009, grasslands and forests in the Mustang district have diminished by 11 and 42 %, respectively, with the tree line having shifted towards higher elevation. Further, grasses and many shrub species are no longer found in abundance at higher elevations and consequently blue sheep ( Pseduois nayaur) move to forage at lower elevations where they encounter and raid human crops. The movement of blue sheep attracts snow leopard ( Panthera uncia) from their higher-elevation habitats to lower sites, where they encounter and depredate livestock. Increased crop raiding by blue sheep and depredations of livestock by snow leopard have impacted adversely on the livelihoods of local people.

  11. Suicide in Canada: impact of injuries with undetermined intent on regional rankings.

    PubMed

    Auger, Nathalie; Burrows, Stephanie; Gamache, Philippe; Hamel, Denis

    2016-02-01

    The impact of underreporting or misclassifying suicides as injuries with undetermined intent is rarely evaluated. We assessed whether undetermined injury deaths influenced provincial rankings of suicide in Canada, using 2 735 152 Canadians followed for mortality from 1991 to 2001. We found that suicide rates increased by up to 26.5% for men and 37.7% for women after including injuries with undetermined intent, shifting provincial rankings of suicide. Attention to the stigma of suicide and to coding suicides as injuries with undetermined intent is merited for surveillance and prevention.

  12. Interannual Atmospheric Variability Simulated by a Mars GCM: Impacts on the Polar Regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, R. M.; Hollingsworth, J. L.

    2003-01-01

    It is often assumed that in the absence of year-to-year dust variations, Mars weather and climate are very repeatable, at least on decadal scales. Recent multi-annual simulations of a Mars GCM reveal however that significant interannual variations may occur with constant dust conditions. In particular, interannual variability (IAV) appears to be associated with the spectrum of atmospheric disturbances that arise due to baroclinic instability. One quantity that shows significant IAV is the poleward heat flux associated with these waves. These variations and their impacts on the polar heat balance will be examined here.

  13. Regional modeling of natural dust in the United State: Source emission, transport, and photochemical impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tong, D. Q.; Mathur, R.; Mobley, D.; Wong, D.; Yu, S.

    2008-12-01

    We developed a dust emission module to estimate the wind-blown dust emissions from dessert and agricultural land using local wind speed, threshold wind speed to initiate erosion, soil texture and moisture, land use type, and vegetation coverage. The estimated dust is then partitioned to create a fraction of the total sediment mobilized by the wind for vertical transport and subsequent regional circulation. This dust module also included detailed chemical speciation and size distribution, and a geographic filter to eliminate unrealistic emission sources (e.g., mountain peaks with dry soil and strong winds). We then couple the dust module with a regional air quality model CMAQ to: (1) study if the WRF-CMAQ national air quality forecasting system can accurately predict major dust storms occurring in the United States; 2) estimate the annual budget of natural dust emissions from agricultural and dessert lands and their relative importance for total PM2.5 over different U.S. regions; and 3) examine the effects of dust emissions on photolysis rates and consequently on levels of tropospheric O3 and atmospheric oxidants.

  14. Impact of climate change on runoff timing over the Alpine region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coppola, Erika; Raffaele, Francesca; Giorgi, Filippo; Giuliani, Graziano

    2015-04-01

    In this work we focus our attention on the snowmelt-driven runoff (SDR) on the Alpine region. We use the Regional Climate model output from Med-CORDEX simulation and in particular the ICTP regional climate model RegCM4 at 2 different resolutions (12km, 50km) and the output from other 3 EURO-CORDEX Models (RACMO22E and HIRHAM5, both driven by EC-EARTH and CCLM4-8-17, driven by MPI-ESM-LR; all of them at 44 and 11 km resolutions). Comparison with the European Water Archive (EWA) observed runoff dataset (242 stations) over Alps show a good performance of all the models in the present day representation of the SDR at the highest resolution. The low-resolution simulations are less accurate in representing the runoff timing. For the future projection we analyzed the RCP 8.5 scenario for the whole ensemble. All the models show a temperature increase up to 4 degrees in the Alps and this leads to a change of SDR timing that can span from 1 to 3 months depending on the model space resolution. These large changes are probably due to the snow-albedo feedback that is amplified over the complex Alpine topography. Such a change in runoff timing can be really important for water storage regulation rules for energy production, irrigation and therefore agricolture, and domestic use.

  15. Place matters: the impact of place of residency on racial attitudes among regional and urban migrants.

    PubMed

    Carter, J Scott; Carter, Shannon K

    2014-09-01

    Scholars have debated whether racial attitudes are socialized early in life and persist throughout one's lifetime or are open to influences from one's environment as an adult. This study introduces another approach that holds that place, as opposed to the timing of socialization, is an important consideration for the socialization of racial attitudes. Using data from the American National Election Study, we consider the effect of region and urban residency on racial attitudes by comparing lifelong residents of these locations to those who migrate into and out of them. Using improved measures of early life socialization and region of residency, we conclude that a place-based model can be used to explain the socialization of racial resentment. For regional migrants, those moving into and out of the non-South maintain levels of racial resentment similar to non-Southern stayers. For urban migrants, the lifelong openness model of socialization was most appropriate. These migrants were more likely to change and adopt the level of racial resentment similar to that of their destination peers. These findings generally persist across time.

  16. Physical impacts of regional climate change in the West African Sahel and the question of desertification

    SciTech Connect

    Nicholson, S.E.; Ba, M.

    1997-11-01

    The question of desertification is examined in the West African Sahel region by considering various physical indicators assumed to accompany this process. The study considers only the past 14 years, since the availability of comprehensive satellite data sets. The physical indicators examined include vegetation cover, surface albedo, soil moisture, wind-borne dust, river flow, lakes, and the ratio of available moisture to vegetation growth. Vegetation cover and albedo are assessed from satellite data. Soil moisture is assessed using a surface hydrologic model. Dust is estimated from visibility measurements. The most important results are that: (1) there is no progressive change in the vegetation cover, (2) an increase of albedo as the region dries up cannot be documented, and (3) there has been a tremendous increase in wind-borne dust over the Sahel. The vegetation cover responds almost directly to rainfall and the movement of the desert boundary corresponds roughly to rainfall fluctuations. The most important meteorological effect of the drought and/or desertification in the Sahel may be the enhanced dust generation, with the region becoming a major global source of atmospheric mineral dust. 5 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.

  17. Simulated impacts of afforestation in East China monsoon region as modulated by ocean variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Di; Notaro, Michael; Liu, Zhengyu; Chen, Guangshan; Liu, Yongqiang

    2013-11-01

    Using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model Version 3.5, this paper examines the climatic effects of afforestation in the East China monsoon region with a focus on land-atmosphere interactions and the modulating influence of ocean variability. In response to afforestation, the local surface air temperature significantly decreases in summer and increases in winter. The summer cooling is attributed to enhanced evapotranspiration from increased tree cover. During winter, afforestation induces greater roughness and weaker winds over the adjacent coastal ocean, leading to diminished latent heat flux and increased sea-surface temperature (SST). The enhanced SST supports greater atmospheric water vapor, which is accompanied by anomalous wind, and transported into the East China monsoon region. The increase in atmospheric water vapor favors more cloud cover and precipitation, especially in the eastern afforestation region. Furthermore, the increase in atmospheric water vapor and cloud cover produce a greenhouse effect, raising the wintertime surface air temperature. By comparing simulations in which ocean temperature are either fixed or variable, we demonstrate that a significant hydrologic response in East China to afforestation only occurs if ocean temperatures are allowed to vary and the oceanic source of moisture to the continent is enhanced.

  18. Magnitude, decadal changes, and impact of regional background ozone transported into the greater Houston, Texas, area.

    PubMed

    Berlin, Shaena R; Langford, Andrew O; Estes, Mark; Dong, Melody; Parrish, David D

    2013-12-17

    Two independent analyses of the daily maximum 8 h average ozone concentrations measured during the high ozone season (May through October) at Continuous Ambient Monitoring Stations are used to quantify the regional background ozone transported into the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) area. The dependence on wind direction is examined, and long-term trends are determined using measurements made between 1998 and 2012. Both analyses show that the regional background ozone has declined during periods of continental outflow: i.e., the conditions associated with most high ozone episodes in HGB. The changes in regional background ozone found for northeasterly and southeasterly flow are -0.50 ± 0.54 and -0.79 ± 0.65 (95% confidence limit) ppbv yr(-1), respectively, which correspond to decreases of ∼7-11 ppbv between 1998 and 2012. This finding is consistent with the summertime downward trend of -0.45 ppbv yr(-1) (range of sites: -0.87 to +0.07 ppbv yr(-1)) for ozone in the eastern U.S. between 1990 and 2010 reported by Cooper et al. and shows that changing background concentrations are at least partially responsible for the decreased surface ozone in the HGB area over the past decade. Baseline ozone concentrations in air flowing into Texas from the Gulf of Mexico have not changed significantly over this period.

  19. Place matters: the impact of place of residency on racial attitudes among regional and urban migrants.

    PubMed

    Carter, J Scott; Carter, Shannon K

    2014-09-01

    Scholars have debated whether racial attitudes are socialized early in life and persist throughout one's lifetime or are open to influences from one's environment as an adult. This study introduces another approach that holds that place, as opposed to the timing of socialization, is an important consideration for the socialization of racial attitudes. Using data from the American National Election Study, we consider the effect of region and urban residency on racial attitudes by comparing lifelong residents of these locations to those who migrate into and out of them. Using improved measures of early life socialization and region of residency, we conclude that a place-based model can be used to explain the socialization of racial resentment. For regional migrants, those moving into and out of the non-South maintain levels of racial resentment similar to non-Southern stayers. For urban migrants, the lifelong openness model of socialization was most appropriate. These migrants were more likely to change and adopt the level of racial resentment similar to that of their destination peers. These findings generally persist across time. PMID:24913952

  20. Impact of assimilation of meso-scale tower data on simulations of weather over the Himalayan region.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rakesh, V.; Goswami, P.

    2010-09-01

    A continuing difficulty in improving numerical forecast at smaller spatial scales relates to the fact that input observational information is limited and inaccurate, especially in data sparse areas like oceans, deserts and regions of complex topography. The accuracy of analysis from numerical models over mountainous region is further degraded by relatively more error over high altitude in case of satellite observations. Use of surface observations, preferably from a meso-scale network is expected significantly improve simulations over region of complex topography. The Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) has established a series of meteorological towers over the mountainous terrain over the Himalayan region which provides meteorological observations at 3 levels every half hour on a regular basis. In this study we have made use of these observations for studying the impact of assimilation of local data on short-range forecasts. We have used the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the three dimensional variational (3D-Var) assimilation scheme. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) analysis is used for providing model initial and boundary condition. Assimilation experiments were conducted for selected rainy and non-rainy events for different months. A comparative analysis of control simulations (no assimilation) and assimilation experiments (with assimilation of tower observation) shows significant improvement in model predicted fields especially in wind speed and rainfall.

  1. Assessment of Aerosol Radiative Impact over Oceanic Regions Adjacent to Indian Subcontinent using Multi-Satellite Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Satheesh, S. K.; Vinoj, V.; Krishnamoorthy, K.

    2010-10-01

    Using data from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments, we have retrieved regional distribution of aerosol column single scattering albedo (parameter indicative of the relative dominance of aerosol absorption and scattering effects), a most important, but least understood aerosol property in assessing its climate impact. Consequently we provide improved assessment of short wave aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) (on both regional and seasonal scales) estimates over this region. Large gradients in north-south ARF were observed as a consequence of gradients in single scattering albedo as well as aerosol optical depth. The highest ARF (-37 W m-2 at the surface) was observed over the northern Arabian Sea during June to August period (JJA). In general, ARF was higher over northern Bay of Bengal (NBoB) during winter and pre-monsoon period, whereas the ARF was higher over northern Arabian Sea (NAS) during the monsoon and post- monsoon period. The largest forcing observed over NAS during JJA is the consequence of large amounts of desert dust transported from the west Asian dust sources. High as well as seasonally invariant aerosol single scattering albedos (~0.98) were observed over the southern Indian Ocean region far from continents. The ARF estimates based on direct measurements made at a remote island location, Minicoy (8.3°N, 73°E) in the southern Arabian Sea are in good agreement with the estimates made following multisatellite analysis.