Science.gov

Sample records for regional econmic impact

  1. Socioeconomic effects of power marketing alternatives for the Central Valley and Washoe Projects: 2005 regional econmic impact analysis using IMPLAN

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, D.M.; Godoy-Kain, P.; Gu, A.Y.; Ulibarri, C.A.

    1996-11-01

    The Western Area Power Administration (Western) was founded by the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 to market and transmit federal hydroelectric power in 15 western states outside the Pacific Northwest, which is served by the Bonneville Power Administration. Western is divided into four independent Customer Service Regions including the Sierra Nevada Region (Sierra Nevada), the focus of this report. The Central Valley Project (CVP) and the Washoe Project provide the primary power resources marketed by Sierra Nevada. Sierra Nevada also purchases and markets power generated by the Bonneville Power Administration, Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E), and various power pools. Sierra Nevada currently markets approximately 1,480 megawatts of power to 77 customers in northern and central California. These customers include investor-owned utilities, public utilities, government agencies, military bases, and irrigation districts. Methods and conclusions from an economic analysis are summarized concerning distributional effects of alternative actions that Sierra Nevada could take with it`s new marketing plan.

  2. Regional Climate Tutorial: Assessing Regional Climate Change and Its Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barron, E.; Fisher, A.

    2002-05-01

    Recent scientific progress now enables credible projections of global changes in climate over long time periods. But people will experience global climate change where they live and work, and have difficulty thinking of a future beyond their grandchildren's lifetime. Although the task of projecting climate change and its impacts is far more challenging for regional and relatively near-term time scales, these are the scales at which actions most easily can be taken to moderate negative impacts. This tutorial will summarize what is known about projecting changes in regional climate, and about assessing the impacts for sectors such as forests, agriculture, fresh water quantity and quality, coastal zones, human health, and ecosystems. The Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA) is used to provide context and illustrate how adaptation within the region and feedback from other regions influence the impacts that might be experienced.

  3. CLIMATE IMPACTS ON REGIONAL WATER

    EPA Science Inventory

    The New England region (including the 6 New England
    states plus upstate New York) offers a very diverse geography,
    matched by an equally diverse economy and human
    population. Livelihoods throughout the region are based
    on service industries that depend heavily on comm...

  4. Impact of wildfires on regional air pollution

    EPA Science Inventory

    We examine the impact of wildfires and agricultural/prescribed burning on regional air pollution and Air Quality Index (AQI) between 2006 and 2013. We define daily regional air pollution using monitoring sites for ozone (n=1595), PM2.5 collected by Federal Reference Method (n=10...

  5. Regionalizing land use impacts on farmland birds.

    PubMed

    Glemnitz, Michael; Zander, Peter; Stachow, Ulrich

    2015-06-01

    The environmental impacts of land use vary regionally. Differences in geomorphology, climate, landscape structure, and biotope inventories are regarded as the main causes of this variation. We present a methodological approach for identifying regional responses in land use type to large-scale changes and the implications for the provision of habitat for farmland birds. The methodological innovations of this approach are (i) the coupling of impact assessments with economic models, (ii) the linking of cropping techniques at the plot scale with the regional distribution of land use, and (iii) the integration of statistical or monitoring data on recent states. This approach allows for the regional differentiation of farmers' responses to changing external conditions and for matching the ecological impacts of land use changes with regional environmental sensitivities. An exemplary scenario analysis was applied for a case study of an area in Germany, assessing the impacts of increased irrigation and the promotion of energy cropping on farmland birds, evaluated as a core indicator for farmland biodiversity. The potential effects on farmland birds were analyzed based on the intrinsic habitat values of the crops and cropping techniques. The results revealed that the strongest decrease in habitat availability for farmland birds occurred in regions with medium-to-low agricultural yields. As a result of the limited cropping alternatives, the increase in maize production was highest in marginal regions for both examined scenarios. Maize production replaced many crops with good-to-medium habitat suitability for birds. The declines in habitat quality were strongest in regions that are not in focus for conservation efforts for farmland birds.

  6. Climate impacts of regional SO2 emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamarque, J. F.; Fiore, A. M.; Shindell, D. T.

    2015-12-01

    Climate impacts of regional SO2 emissions J.-F. Lamarque, A. M. Fiore and D. Shindell In this talk, we present the analysis of constant -forcing present-day simulations pertaining to the perturbation of SO2 emissions over the United States and China. Using 3 chemistry-climate models (CESM, GFDL and GISS), we show that the removal of SO2 anthropogenic emissions over each region leads to significant (at the 95% or above; significance is also assessed relative to internal variability as determined from a 200-year control simulation with perpetual year 2000 conditions) perturbations in temperature over multiple regions of the Northern Hemisphere. While more limited, significant perturbations in regional precipitation are also found. While the overall (global and zonal means) forcing from Chinese emissions is similar to the US case, we found that the regional response to the emissions has different regional distributions.

  7. The regional environmental impact of biomass production

    SciTech Connect

    Graham, R.L.

    1994-09-01

    The objective of this paper is to present a broad overview of the potential environmental impacts of biomass energy from energy crops. The subject is complex because the environmental impact of using biomass for energy must be considered in the context of alternative energy options while the environmental impact of producing biomass from energy crops must be considered in the context of the alternative land-uses. Using biomass-derived energy can reduce greenhouse gas emissions or increase them; growing biomass energy crops can enhance soil fertility or degrade it. Without knowing the context of the biomass energy, one can say little about its specific environmental impacts. The primary focus of this paper is an evaluation of the environmental impacts of growing energy crops. I present an approach for quantitatively evaluating the potential environmental impact of growing energy crops at a regional scale that accounts for the environmental and economic context of the crops. However, to set the stage for this discussion, I begin by comparing the environmental advantages and disadvantages of biomass-derived energy relative to other energy alternatives such as coal, hydropower, nuclear power, oil/gasoline, natural gas and photovoltaics.

  8. Assessing the Regional Disparities in Geoengineering impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irvine, P. J.; Ridgwell, A. J.; Lunt, D. J.

    2010-12-01

    SRM geoengineering may ameliorate many of the impacts of greenhouse-induced global warming but also has the potential to drive regional climates outside the envelope of greenhouse-gas induced warming, creating ‘novel’ conditions, and could affect precipitation in some regions disproportionably. We use HadCM3L [Cox et al., 2000] a fully coupled climate model to analyse the regional impacts of different levels of a sunshade SRM intervention on a world with 4 times the pre-industrial CO2 level. We employ a number of new methods to analyse these results, looking at: the regional responses, global aggregation of ‘recipients’ of climate impacts and classifying ‘novel’ climate conditions [Irvine et al., 2010]. We find that the precipitation impacts of SRM differ strongly between regions, with most regions drying but with others becoming wetter with increased levels of SRM. We show that the ‘optimal’ level of SRM for each region would differ, for example in our simulations the USA becomes drier at higher levels of SRM, with pre-industrial precipitation conditions restored at ~50% SRM, whereas Australia starts much drier at 4xCO2 and gets wetter with increasing SRM, returning to pre-industrial precipitation conditions at 100% SRM. ‘Novel’ precipitation conditions, such as the drier-than-pre-industrial conditions in the USA, are experienced across a large fraction of the Earth for all but the lowest levels of SRM, whereas ‘novel’ (cooler) temperature conditions only occur at the highest levels of geoengineering in tropical regions [Govindasamy et al., 2003]. This work shows that the impacts of SRM differ strongly between regions and that a large fraction of the world would have to contend with a regional climate that is ‘novel’ in some way, i.e. with more extreme changes than due to global warming alone. However, we find that it may be possible to identify a level of SRM geoengineering capable of meeting multiple mitigation targets, such as

  9. Regional projection of climate impact indices over the Mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casanueva, Ana; Frías, M.; Dolores; Herrera, Sixto; Bedia, Joaquín; San Martín, Daniel; Gutiérrez, José Manuel; Zaninovic, Ksenija

    2014-05-01

    Climate Impact Indices (CIIs) are being increasingly used in different socioeconomic sectors to transfer information about climate change impacts and risks to stakeholders. CIIs are typically based on different weather variables such as temperature, wind speed, precipitation or humidity and comprise, in a single index, the relevant meteorological information for the particular impact sector (in this study wildfires and tourism). This dependence on several climate variables poses important limitations to the application of statistical downscaling techniques, since physical consistency among variables is required in most cases to obtain reliable local projections. The present study assesses the suitability of the "direct" downscaling approach, in which the downscaling method is directly applied to the CII. In particular, for illustrative purposes, we consider two popular indices used in the wildfire and tourism sectors, the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and the Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET), respectively. As an example, two case studies are analysed over two representative Mediterranean regions of interest for the EU CLIM-RUN project: continental Spain for the FWI and Croatia for the PET. Results obtained with this "direct" downscaling approach are similar to those found from the application of the statistical downscaling to the individual meteorological drivers prior to the index calculation ("component" downscaling) thus, a wider range of statistical downscaling methods could be used. As an illustration, future changes in both indices are projected by applying two direct statistical downscaling methods, analogs and linear regression, to the ECHAM5 model. Larger differences were found between the two direct statistical downscaling approaches than between the direct and the component approaches with a single downscaling method. While these examples focus on particular indices and Mediterranean regions of interest for CLIM-RUN stakeholders, the same study

  10. Venus - Impact Crater in Eastern Navka Region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    This Magellan image, which is 50 kilometers (31 miles) in width and 80 kilometers (50 miles) in length, is centered at 11.9 degrees latitude, 352 degrees longitude in the eastern Navka Region of Venus. The crater, which is approximately 8 kilometers (5 miles) in diameter, displays a butterfly symmetry pattern. The ejecta pattern most likely results from an oblique impact, where the impactor came from the south and ejected material to the north.

  11. Impact Assessment of Watershed in Desert Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madhava Rao, V.; Hermon, R. R.; Kesava Rao, P.; Phanindra Kumar, T.

    2012-07-01

    Change detection from different temporal images usually based on reflectance on natural and human activity impact, using integrated GIS, Remote Sensing and image processing technologies enable impact assessment of watershed in desert region. A time series analysis of seasonal NDVI have been used to estimate net primary productivity, phonological characteristic of vegetative surface, length of growing season and dry drown periods (Ramsey et al., 1995). The study is designed to achieve the objectives to Study the changes in vegetation for selected watershed in a desert districts of Bhilwara, Barmer & Jaisalmer in Rajastan State of India, to identify the changes in density of vegetation, to assess the temporal changes and to assess the impact of the watershed, with an objective to conserve the soil erosion and harvest the rainwater in order to increase the ground water table, to improve the socio economic condition of the people and to stop the migration of the people from the villages in search of livelihood. These activities will have a direct impact on the crop production. The Changes in density of vegetation indicates the quantity of crop production and the growth of vegetation apart from crops and the conservation of land with out scrub/barren land to land with scrub. This gives an picture about the impact of watershed programme in increasing the vegetative cover. The temporal changes help in understanding the changes taken place in the watershed, and facilitate understand the positive as well as negative impacts of any decisions taken in the implementation. The extent and density and type of vegetation for the years, 2000,2004,2005,2007 and 2008, was studied and vegetation growth was analysed using GIS and Digital Image Processing techniques.

  12. Agriculture Impacts of Regional Nuclear Conflict

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xia, Lili; Robock, Alan; Mills, Michael; Toon, Owen Brian

    2013-04-01

    One of the major consequences of nuclear war would be climate change due to massive smoke injection into the atmosphere. Smoke from burning cities can be lofted into the stratosphere where it will have an e-folding lifetime more than 5 years. The climate changes include significant cooling, reduction of solar radiation, and reduction of precipitation. Each of these changes can affect agricultural productivity. To investigate the response from a regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan, we used the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer agricultural simulation model. We first evaluated the model by forcing it with daily weather data and management practices in China and the USA for rice, maize, wheat, and soybeans. Then we perturbed observed weather data using monthly climate anomalies for a 10-year period due to a simulated 5 Tg soot injection that could result from a regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan, using a total of 100 15 kt atomic bombs, much less than 1% of the current global nuclear arsenal. We computed anomalies using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE and NCAR's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). We perturbed each year of the observations with anomalies from each year of the 10-year nuclear war simulations. We found that different regions respond differently to a regional nuclear war; southern regions show slight increases of crop yields while in northern regions crop yields drop significantly. Sensitivity tests show that temperature changes due to nuclear war are more important than precipitation and solar radiation changes in affecting crop yields in the regions we studied. In total, crop production in China and the USA would decrease 15-50% averaged over the 10 years using both models' output. Simulations forced by ModelE output show smaller impacts than simulations forced by WACCM output at the end of the 10 year period because of the different temperature responses in the two models.

  13. Assessing the regional disparities in geoengineering impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irvine, Peter J.; Ridgwell, Andy; Lunt, Daniel J.

    2010-09-01

    Solar Radiation Management (SRM) Geoengineering may ameliorate many consequences of global warming but also has the potential to drive regional climates outside the envelope of greenhouse-gas induced warming, creating ‘novel’ conditions, and could affect precipitation in some regions disproportionably. Here, using a fully coupled climate model we explore some new methodologies for assessing regional disparities in geoengineering impacts. Taking a 4 × CO2 climate and an idealized ‘sunshade’ SRM strategy, we consider different fractions of the maximum theoretical, 4 × CO2-cancelling global mean cooling. Whilst regional predictions in particularly relatively low resolution global climate models must be treated with caution, our simulations indicate that it might be possible to identify a level of SRM geoengineering capable of meeting multiple targets, such as maintaining a stable mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet and cooling global climate, but without reducing global precipitation below pre-industrial or exposing significant fractions of the Earth to ‘novel’ climate conditions.

  14. Sustainable regional development and natural hazard impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrova, Elena; Svetlosanov, Vladimir; Kudin, Valery

    2016-04-01

    During the last decades, natural hazard impacts on social and economic development in many countries were increasing due to the expansion of human activities into the areas prone to natural risks as well as to increasing in number and severity of natural hazardous events caused by climate changes and other natural phenomena. The escalation of severe disasters (such as Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan 2011) triggered by natural hazards and related natural-technological and environmental events is increasingly threatening sustainable development at different levels from regional to global scale. In our study, we develop a model of ecological, economic and social sustainable development for the European part of Russia and the Republic of Belarus. The model consists of six blocks including 1) population, 2) environment, 3) mineral resources, 4) geographic space, 5) investments, and 6) food production and import. These blocks were created based on the analysis of the main processes at the regional level; all the blocks are closely interrelated between each other. Reaching the limit values of block parameters corresponds to a sharp deterioration of the system; as a result, the system can lose its stability. Aggravation of natural and natural-technological risk impacts on each block and should be taken into account in the model of regional development. Natural hazards can cause both strong influences and small but permanent perturbations. In both cases, a system can become unstable. The criterion for sustainable development is proposed. The Russian Foundation for Humanities and Belorussian Republican Foundation for Fundamental Research supported the study (project 15-22-01008).

  15. Minerals Strategic Impact on Regional Stability in Africa

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-03-30

    USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT MINERALS STRATEGIC IMPACT ON REGIONAL STABILITY IN AFRICA by Colonel Lee E...3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2006 to 00-00-2007 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Minerals Strategic Impact on Regional Stability in Africa 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER...Lee E. Hansen TITLE: Minerals Strategic Impact on Regional Stability in Africa FORMAT: Strategy Research Project DATE: 30 March 2007

  16. Impacts of wildfire smoke plumes on regional air quality

    EPA Science Inventory

    Background: Recent trends in increased frequency and severity of large fires necessitate an improved understanding of smoke plume impacts on regional-scale air quality and public health. Objective: We examine the impact of fire smoke on regional air quality between 2006 and 2013 ...

  17. Regional economic impacts of Grand Canyon river runners.

    PubMed

    Hjerpe, Evan E; Kim, Yeon-Su

    2007-10-01

    Economic impact analysis (EIA) of outdoor recreation can provide critical social information concerning the utilization of natural resources. Outdoor recreation and other non-consumptive uses of resources are viewed as environmentally friendly alternatives to extractive-type industries. While outdoor recreation can be an appropriate use of resources, it generates both beneficial and adverse socioeconomic impacts on rural communities. The authors used EIA to assess the regional economic impacts of rafting in Grand Canyon National Park. The Grand Canyon region of northern Arizona represents a rural US economy that is highly dependent upon tourism and recreational expenditures. The purpose of this research is twofold. The first is to ascertain the previously unknown regional economic impacts of Grand Canyon river runners. The second purpose is to examine attributes of these economic impacts in terms of regional multipliers, leakage, and types of employment created. Most of the literature on economic impacts of outdoor recreation has focused strictly on the positive economic impacts, failing to illuminate the coinciding adverse and constraining economic impacts. Examining the attributes of economic impacts can highlight deficiencies and constraints that limit the economic benefits of recreation and tourism. Regional expenditure information was obtained by surveying non-commercial boaters and commercial outfitters. The authors used IMPLAN input-output modeling to assess direct, indirect, and induced effects of Grand Canyon river runners. Multipliers were calculated for output, employment, and income. Over 22,000 people rafted on the Colorado River through Grand Canyon National Park in 2001, resulting in an estimated $21,100,000 of regional expenditures to the greater Grand Canyon economy. However, over 50% of all rafting-related expenditures were not captured by the regional economy and many of the jobs created by the rafting industry are lower-wage and seasonal. Policy

  18. Regional, Rural Home ABE Program Spells Impact.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vachon, Claude

    Maine's State Division of Adult Education began setting up a regionalized Adult Basic Education (ABE) program in rural Franklin county in 1974 to serve the area's functional illiterates. Located in the building housing the Franklin County Community Action Program (CAP), linkages were developed with a large number of agencies; initially the 10 CAP…

  19. Impacts on regional climate of Amazon deforestation

    SciTech Connect

    Dickinson, R.E.; Kennedy, P. NCAR, Boulder, CO )

    1992-10-01

    A simulation of the climate response to Amazon deforestation has been carried out. Precipitation is decreased on the average by 25 percent or 1.4 mm/day, with ET and runoff both decreasing by 0.7 mm/day. Modifications of surface energy balance through change of albedo and roughness are complicated by cloud feedbacks. The initial decrease of the absorption of solar radiation by higher surface albedos is largely cancelled by a reduction in cloud cover, but consequent reduction in downward longwave has a substantial impact on surface energy balance. Smoke aerosols might have an effect comparable to deforestation during burning season. 8 refs.

  20. Climate impacts on northern Canada: regional background.

    PubMed

    Prowse, Terry D; Furgal, Chris; Bonsal, Barrie R; Peters, Daniel L

    2009-07-01

    Understanding the implications of climate change on northern Canada requires a background about the size and diversity of its human and biogeophysical systems. Occupying an area of almost 40% of Canada, with one-third of this contained in Arctic islands, Canada's northern territories consist of a diversity of physical environments unrivaled around the circumpolar north. Major ecozones composed of a range of landforms, climate, vegetation, and wildlife include: Arctic, boreal and taiga cordillera; boreal and taiga plains; taiga shield; and northern and southern Arctic. Although generally characterized by a cold climate, there is an enormous range in air temperature with mean annual values being as high as -5 degrees C in the south to as low as -20 degrees C in the high Arctic islands. A similar contrast characterizes precipitation, which can be > 700 mm y(-1) in some southern alpine regions to as low as 50 mm y(-1) over islands of the high Arctic. Major freshwater resources are found within most northern ecozones, varying from large glaciers or ice caps and lakes to extensive wetlands and peat lands. Most of the North's renewable water, however, is found within its major river networks and originates in more southerly headwaters. Ice covers characterize the freshwater systems for multiple months of the year while permafrost prevails in various forms, dominating the terrestrial landscape. The marine environment, which envelops the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, is dominated by seasonal to multiyear sea ice often several meters thick that plays a key role in the regional climate. Almost two-thirds of northern Canadian communities are located along coastlines with the entire population being just over 100 000. Most recent population growth has been dominated by an expansion of nonaboriginals, primarily the result of resource development and the growth of public administration. The economies of northern communities, however, remain quite mixed with traditional land

  1. Regional Economic Development Impact Model: Phase I Study.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1985-11-01

    A multiregional variable input-output (MRVIO) model is introduced to investigate the impact of a change in transportation costs on regional development and trade flows. The MRVIO model is a theoretically well-founded, practically useful, and policy sensitive model. The regional technical coefficients and the trade coefficients are endogenous variables to the MRVIO model. These coefficients are sensitive to the transportation costs as...transportation cost stimulates the regional development . However, its sensitivity differs among industries. (Author)

  2. Distal ejecta from lunar impacts: Extensive regions of rocky deposits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bandfield, Joshua L.; Cahill, Joshua T. S.; Carter, Lynn M.; Neish, Catherine D.; Patterson, G. Wesley; Williams, Jean-Pierre; Paige, David A.

    2017-02-01

    Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Diviner Radiometer, Mini-RF, and LRO Camera data were used to identify and characterize rocky lunar deposits that appear well separated from any potential source crater. Two regions are described: 1) A ∼18,000 km2 area with elevated rock abundance and extensive melt ponds and veneers near the antipode of Tycho crater (167.5°E, 42.5°N). This region has been identified previously, using radar and imaging data. 2) A much larger and more diffuse region, covering ∼730,000 km2, centered near 310°E, 35°S, containing elevated rock abundance and numerous granular flow deposits on crater walls. The rock distributions in both regions favor certain slope azimuths over others, indicating a directional component to the formation of these deposits. The spatial distribution of rocks is consistent with the arrival of ejecta from the west and northwest at low angles (∼10-30°) above the horizon in both regions. The derived age and slope orientations of the deposits indicate that the deposits likely originated as ejecta from the Tycho impact event. Despite their similar origin, the deposits in the two regions show significant differences in the datasets. The Tycho crater antipode deposit covers a smaller area, but the deposits are pervasive and appear to be dominated by impact melts. By contrast, the nearside deposits cover a much larger area and numerous granular flows were triggered. However, the features in this region are less prominent with no evidence for the presence of impact melts. The two regions appear to be surface expressions of a distant impact event that can modify surfaces across wide regions, resulting in a variety of surface morphologies. The Tycho impact event may only be the most recent manifestation of these processes, which likely have played a role in the development of the regolith throughout lunar history.

  3. Impacts of climate change on mangrove ecosystems: A region by region overview

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ward, Raymond D.; Friess, Daniel A.; Day, Richard H.; MacKenzie, Richard A.

    2016-01-01

    Inter-related and spatially variable climate change factors including sea level rise, increased storminess, altered precipitation regime and increasing temperature are impacting mangroves at regional scales. This review highlights extreme regional variation in climate change threats and impacts, and how these factors impact the structure of mangrove communities, their biodiversity and geomorphological setting. All these factors interplay to determine spatially variable resiliency to climate change impacts, and because mangroves are varied in type and geographical location, these systems are good models for understanding such interactions at different scales. Sea level rise is likely to influence mangroves in all regions although local impacts are likely to be more varied. Changes in the frequency and intensity of storminess are likely to have a greater impact on N and Central America, Asia, Australia, and East Africa than West Africa and S. America. This review also highlights the numerous geographical knowledge gaps of climate change impacts, with some regions particularly understudied (e.g., Africa and the Middle East). While there has been a recent drive to address these knowledge gaps especially in South America and Asia, further research is required to allow researchers to tease apart the processes that influence both vulnerability and resilience to climate change. A more globally representative view of mangroves would allow us to better understand the importance of mangrove type and landscape setting in determining system resiliency to future climate change.

  4. Regional Scale Analyses of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolfe, D. W.; Hayhoe, K.

    2006-12-01

    New statistically downscaled climate modeling techniques provide an opportunity for improved regional analysis of climate change impacts on agriculture. Climate modeling outputs can often simultaneously meet the needs of those studying impacts on natural as well as managed ecosystems. Climate outputs can be used to drive existing forest or crop models, or livestock models (e.g., temperature-humidity index model predicting dairy milk production) for improved information on regional impact. High spatial resolution climate forecasts, combined with knowledge of seasonal temperatures or rainfall constraining species ranges, can be used to predict shifts in suitable habitat for invasive weeds, insects, and pathogens, as well as cash crops. Examples of climate thresholds affecting species range and species composition include: minimum winter temperature, duration of winter chilling (vernalization) hours (e.g., hours below 7.2 C), frost-free period, and frequency of high temperature stress days in summer. High resolution climate outputs can also be used to drive existing integrated pest management models predicting crop insect and disease pressure. Collectively, these analyses can be used to test hypotheses or provide insight into the impact of future climate change scenarios on species range shifts and threat from invasives, shifts in crop production zones, and timing and regional variation in economic impacts.

  5. How global extinctions impact regional biodiversity in mammals

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Shan; Davies, T. Jonathan; Gittleman, John L.

    2012-01-01

    Phylogenetic diversity (PD) represents the evolutionary history of a species assemblage and is a valuable measure of biodiversity because it captures not only species richness but potentially also genetic and functional diversity. Preserving PD could be critical for maintaining the functional integrity of the world's ecosystems, and species extinction will have a large impact on ecosystems in areas where the ecosystem cost per species extinction is high. Here, we show that impacts from global extinctions are linked to spatial location. Using a phylogeny of all mammals, we compare regional losses of PD against a model of random extinction. At regional scales, losses differ dramatically: several biodiversity hotspots in southern Asia and Amazonia will lose an unexpectedly large proportion of PD. Global analyses may therefore underestimate the impacts of extinction on ecosystem processes and function because they occur at finer spatial scales within the context of natural biogeography. PMID:21957091

  6. Transboundary impacts on regional ground water modeling in Texas.

    PubMed

    Rainwater, Ken; Stovall, Jeff; Frailey, Scott; Urban, Lloyd

    2005-01-01

    Recent legislation required regional grassroots water resources planning across the entire state of Texas. The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB), the state's primary water resource planning agency, divided the state into 16 planning regions. Each planning group developed plans to manage both ground water and surface water sources and to meet future demands of various combinations of domestic, agricultural, municipal, and industrial water consumers. This presentation describes the challenges in developing a ground water model for the Llano Estacado Regional Water Planning Group (LERWPG), whose region includes 21 counties in the Southern High Plains of Texas. While surface water is supplied to several cities in this region, the vast majority of the regional water use comes from the High Plains aquifer system, often locally referred to as the Ogallala Aquifer. Over 95% of the ground water demand is for irrigated agriculture. The LERWPG had to predict the impact of future TWDB-projected water demands, as provided by the TWDB, on the aquifer for the period 2000 to 2050. If detrimental impacts were noted, alternative management strategies must be proposed. While much effort was spent on evaluating the current status of the ground water reserves, an appropriate numerical model of the aquifer system was necessary to demonstrate future impacts of the predicted withdrawals as well as the effects of the alternative strategies. The modeling effort was completed in the summer of 2000. This presentation concentrates on the political, scientific, and nontechnical issues in this planning process that complicated the modeling effort. Uncertainties in data, most significantly in distribution and intensity of recharge and withdrawals, significantly impacted the calibration and predictive modeling efforts. Four predictive scenarios, including baseline projections, recurrence of the drought of record, precipitation enhancement, and reduced irrigation demand, were simulated to

  7. Transboundary impacts on regional ground water modeling in Texas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rainwater, K.; Stovall, J.; Frailey, S.; Urban, L.

    2005-01-01

    Recent legislation required regional grassroots water resources planning across the entire state of Texas. The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB), the state's primary water resource planning agency, divided the state into 16 planning regions. Each planning group developed plans to manage both ground water and surface water sources and to meet future demands of various combinations of domestic, agricultural, municipal, and industrial water consumers. This presentation describes the challenges in developing a ground water model for the Llano Estacado Regional Water Planning Group (LERWPG), whose region includes 21 counties in the Southern High Plains of Texas. While surface water is supplied to several cities in this region, the vast majority of the regional water use comes from the High Plains aquifer system, often locally referred to as the Ogallala Aquifer. Over 95% of the ground water demand is for irrigated agriculture. The LERWPG had to predict the impact of future TWDB-projected water demands, as provided by the TWDB, on the aquifer for the period 2000 to 2050. If detrimental impacts were noted, alternative management strategies must be proposed. While much effort was spent on evaluating the current status of the ground water reserves, an appropriate numerical model of the aquifer system was necessary to demonstrate future impacts of the predicted withdrawals as well as the effects of the alternative strategies. The modeling effort was completed in the summer of 2000. This presentation concentrates on the political, scientific, and nontechnical issues in this planning process that complicated the modeling effort. Uncertainties in data, most significantly in distribution and intensity of recharge and withdrawals, significantly impacted the calibration and predictive modeling efforts. Four predictive scenarios, including baseline projections, recurrence of the drought of record, precipitation enhancement, and reduced irrigation demand, were simulated to

  8. Impact of Asia Dust Aerosols on Regional Environment and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, J.

    2015-12-01

    East Asia is a major dust source in the world and has great impacts on regional climate in Asia, where the large arid and semi-arid regions are. In this study, the typical transport paths of East Asia dust, which affect regional and global climates, are demonstrated and numerous effects of dust aerosols on clouds and precipitation primarily over East Asian arid and semi-arid regions are discussed. Compared with the dust aerosols of Saharan, those of East Asian are more absorptive of solar radiation, and can influence the cloud properties not only by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei but also through changing the relative humidity and stability of the atmosphere (via semi-direct effect). Converting visible light to thermal energy, dust aerosols can burn clouds to produce a warming effect on climate, which is opposite to the first and second indirect effects of aerosols. Over Asia arid and semi-arid regions, the positive feedback in the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction may aggravate drought in its inner land. Impact of Asia dust on regional environment, especially on haze weather, are also presented in this talk.

  9. Potential climatic impacts of vegetation change: A regional modeling study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Copeland, J.H.; Pielke, R.A.; Kittel, T.G.F.

    1996-01-01

    The human species has been modifying the landscape long before the development of modern agrarian techniques. Much of the land area of the conterminous United States is currently used for agricultural production. In certain regions this change in vegetative cover from its natural state may have led to local climatic change. A regional climate version of the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System was used to assess the impact of a natural versus current vegetation distribution on the weather and climate of July 1989. The results indicate that coherent regions of substantial changes, of both positive and negative sign, in screen height temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation are a possible consequence of land use change throughout the United States. The simulated changes in the screen height quantities were closely related to changes in the vegetation parameters of albedo, roughness length, leaf area index, and fractional coverage. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

  10. Impacts of Groundwater Pumping on Regional and Global Water Resources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wada, Yoshihide

    2016-01-01

    Except frozen water in ice and glaciers (68%), groundwater is the world's largest distributed store of freshwater (30%), and has strategic importance to global food and water security. In this chapter, the most recent advances assessing human impact on regional and global groundwater resources are reviewed. This chapter critically evaluates the recently advanced modeling approaches quantifying the effect of groundwater pumping in regional and global groundwater resources and the evidence of feedback to the Earth system including sea-level rise associated with groundwater use. At last, critical challenges and opportunities are identified in the use of groundwater to adapt to growing food demand and uncertain climate.

  11. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

    PubMed Central

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C.; Gray, Lesley J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Harder, Jerald W.; Knight, Jeff R.; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C.; Wood, Richard A.

    2015-01-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. PMID:26102364

  12. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

    PubMed

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C; Gray, Lesley J; Scaife, Adam A; Dunstone, Nick J; Harder, Jerald W; Knight, Jeff R; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C; Wood, Richard A

    2015-06-23

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

  13. Local and Regional Impacts of Large Scale Wind Energy Deployment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michalakes, J.; Hammond, S.; Lundquist, J. K.; Moriarty, P.; Robinson, M.

    2010-12-01

    The U.S. is currently on a path to produce 20% of its electricity from wind energy by 2030, almost a 10-fold increase over present levels of electricity generated from wind. Such high-penetration wind energy deployment will entail extracting elevated energy levels from the planetary boundary layer and preliminary studies indicate that this will have significant but uncertain impacts on the local and regional environment. State and federal regulators have raised serious concerns regarding potential agricultural impacts from large farms deployed throughout the Midwest where agriculture is the basis of the local economy. The effects of large wind farms have been proposed to be both beneficial (drying crops to reduce occurrences of fungal diseases, avoiding late spring freezes, enhancing pollen viability, reducing dew duration) and detrimental (accelerating moisture loss during drought) with no conclusive investigations thus far. As both wind and solar technologies are deployed at scales required to replace conventional technologies, there must be reasonable certainty that the potential environmental impacts at the micro, macro, regional and global scale do not exceed those anticipated from carbon emissions. Largely because of computational limits, the role of large wind farms in affecting regional-scale weather patterns has only been investigated in coarse simulations and modeling tools do not yet exist which are capable of assessing the downwind affects of large wind farms may have on microclimatology. In this presentation, we will outline the vision for and discuss technical and scientific challenges in developing a multi-model high-performance simulation capability covering the range of mesoscale to sub-millimeter scales appropriate for assessing local, regional, and ultimately global environmental impacts and quantifying uncertainties of large scale wind energy deployment scenarios. Such a system will allow continuous downscaling of atmospheric processes on wind

  14. Regional Risk Assessment for climate change impacts on coastal aquifers.

    PubMed

    Iyalomhe, F; Rizzi, J; Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2015-12-15

    Coastal aquifers have been identified as particularly vulnerable to impacts on water quantity and quality due to the high density of socio-economic activities and human assets in coastal regions and to the projected rising sea levels, contributing to the process of saltwater intrusion. This paper proposes a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrated with a chain of numerical models to evaluate potential climate change-related impacts on coastal aquifers and linked natural and human systems (i.e., wells, river, agricultural areas, lakes, forests and semi-natural environments). The RRA methodology employs Multi Criteria Decision Analysis methods and Geographic Information Systems functionalities to integrate heterogeneous spatial data on hazard, susceptibility and risk for saltwater intrusion and groundwater level variation. The proposed approach was applied on the Esino River basin (Italy) using future climate hazard scenarios based on a chain of climate, hydrological, hydraulic and groundwater system models running at different spatial scales. Models were forced with the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the period 2071-2100 over four seasons (i.e., winter, spring, summer and autumn). Results indicate that in future seasons, climate change will cause few impacts on the lower Esino River valley. Groundwater level decrease will have limited effects: agricultural areas, forests and semi-natural environments will be at risk only in a region close to the coastline which covers less than 5% of the total surface of the considered receptors; less than 3.5% of the wells will be exposed in the worst scenario. Saltwater intrusion impact in future scenarios will be restricted to a narrow region close to the coastline (only few hundred meters), and thus it is expected to have very limited effects on the Esino coastal aquifer with no consequences on the considered natural and human systems.

  15. Impact of wildfires on regional air pollution | Science Inventory ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    We examine the impact of wildfires and agricultural/prescribed burning on regional air pollution and Air Quality Index (AQI) between 2006 and 2013. We define daily regional air pollution using monitoring sites for ozone (n=1595), PM2.5 collected by Federal Reference Method (n=1058), and constituents of PM2.5 from the Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environment (IMPROVE) network (n=264) and use satellite image analysis from the NOAA Hazard Mapping System (HMS) to determine days on which visible smoke plumes are detected in the vertical column of the monitoring site. To examine the impact of smoke from these fires on regional air pollution we use a two stage approach, accounting for within site (1st stage) and between site (2nd stage) variations. At the first stage we estimate a monitor-specific plume day effect describing the relative change in pollutant concentrations on the days impacted by smoke plume while accounting for confounding effects of season and temperature_. At the second stage we combine monitor-specific plume day effects with a Bayesian hierarchical model and estimate a pooled nationally-averaged effect. HMS visible smoke plumes were detected on 6% of ozone, 8% of PM2.5 and 6% of IMPROVE network monitoring days. Our preliminary results indicate that the long range transport of air pollutants from wildfires and prescribed burns increase ozone concentration by 11% and PM2.5 mass by 34%. On all of the days where monitoring sites were AQI

  16. Global, regional and local health impacts of civil aviation emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yim, Steve H. L.; Lee, Gideon L.; Lee, In Hwan; Allroggen, Florian; Ashok, Akshay; Caiazzo, Fabio; Eastham, Sebastian D.; Malina, Robert; Barrett, Steven R. H.

    2015-03-01

    Aviation emissions impact surface air quality at multiple scales—from near-airport pollution peaks associated with airport landing and take off (LTO) emissions, to intercontinental pollution attributable to aircraft cruise emissions. Previous studies have quantified aviation’s air quality impacts around a specific airport, in a specific region, or at the global scale. However, no study has assessed the air quality and human health impacts of aviation, capturing effects on all aforementioned scales. This study uses a multi-scale modeling approach to quantify and monetize the air quality impact of civil aviation emissions, approximating effects of aircraft plume dynamics-related local dispersion (˜1 km), near-airport dispersion (˜10 km), regional (˜1000 km) and global (˜10 000 km) scale chemistry and transport. We use concentration-response functions to estimate premature deaths due to population exposure to aviation-attributable PM2.5 and ozone, finding that aviation emissions cause ˜16 000 (90% CI: 8300-24 000) premature deaths per year. Of these, LTO emissions contribute a quarter. Our estimate shows that premature deaths due to long-term exposure to aviation-attributable PM2.5 and O3 lead to costs of ˜21 bn per year. We compare these costs to other societal costs of aviation and find that they are on the same order of magnitude as global aviation-attributable climate costs, and one order of magnitude larger than aviation-attributable accident and noise costs.

  17. Ensemble-based Regional Climate Prediction: Political Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miguel, E.; Dykema, J.; Satyanath, S.; Anderson, J. G.

    2008-12-01

    Accurate forecasts of regional climate, including temperature and precipitation, have significant implications for human activities, not just economically but socially. Sub Saharan Africa is a region that has displayed an exceptional propensity for devastating civil wars. Recent research in political economy has revealed a strong statistical relationship between year to year fluctuations in precipitation and civil conflict in this region in the 1980s and 1990s. To investigate how climate change may modify the regional risk of civil conflict in the future requires a probabilistic regional forecast that explicitly accounts for the community's uncertainty in the evolution of rainfall under anthropogenic forcing. We approach the regional climate prediction aspect of this question through the application of a recently demonstrated method called generalized scalar prediction (Leroy et al. 2009), which predicts arbitrary scalar quantities of the climate system. This prediction method can predict change in any variable or linear combination of variables of the climate system averaged over a wide range spatial scales, from regional to hemispheric to global. Generalized scalar prediction utilizes an ensemble of model predictions to represent the community's uncertainty range in climate modeling in combination with a timeseries of any type of observational data that exhibits sensitivity to the scalar of interest. It is not necessary to prioritize models in deriving with the final prediction. We present the results of the application of generalized scalar prediction for regional forecasts of temperature and precipitation and Sub Saharan Africa. We utilize the climate predictions along with the established statistical relationship between year-to-year rainfall variability in Sub Saharan Africa to investigate the potential impact of climate change on civil conflict within that region.

  18. Determining long-term regional erosion rates using impact craters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hergarten, Stefan; Kenkmann, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    More than 300,000 impact craters have been found on Mars, while the surface of Moon's highlands is even saturated with craters. In contrast, only 184 impact craters have been confirmed on Earth so far with only 125 of them exposed at the surface. The spatial distribution of these impact craters is highly inhomogeneous. Beside the large variation in the age of the crust, consumption of craters by erosion and burial by sediments are the main actors being responsible for the quite small and inhomogeneous crater record. In this study we present a novel approach to infer long-term average erosion rates at regional scales from the terrestrial crater inventory. The basic idea behind this approach is a dynamic equilibrium between the production of new craters and their consumption by erosion. It is assumed that each crater remains detectable until the total erosion after the impact exceeds a characteristic depth depending on the crater's diameter. Combining this model with the terrestrial crater production rate, i.e., the number of craters per unit area and time as a function of their diameter, allows for a prediction of the expected number of craters in a given region as a function of the erosion rate. Using the real crater inventory, this relationship can be inverted to determine the regional long-term erosion rate and its statistical uncertainty. A limitation by the finite age of the crust can also be taken into account. Applying the method to the Colorado Plateau and the Deccan Traps, both being regions with a distinct geological history, yields erosion rates in excellent agreement with those obtained by other, more laborious methods. However, these rates are formally exposed to large statistical uncertainties due to the small number of impact craters. As higher crater densities are related to lower erosion rates, smaller statistical errors can be expected when large regions in old parts of the crust are considered. Very low long-term erosion rates of less than 4

  19. Regional hydro-climatic impacts of contemporary Amazonian deforestation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khanna, Jaya

    More than 17% of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared in the past three decades triggering important climatological and societal impacts. This thesis is devoted to identifying and explaining the regional hydroclimatic impacts of this change employing multidecadal satellite observations and numerical simulations providing an integrated perspective on this topic. The climatological nature of this study motivated the implementation and application of a cloud detection technique to a new geostationary satellite dataset. The resulting sub daily, high spatial resolution, multidecadal time series facilitated the detection of trends and variability in deforestation triggered cloud cover changes. The analysis was complemented by satellite precipitation, reanalysis and ground based datasets and attribution with the variable resolution Ocean-Land-Atmosphere-Model. Contemporary Amazonian deforestation affects spatial scales of hundreds of kilometers. But, unlike the well-studied impacts of a few kilometers scale deforestation, the climatic response to contemporary, large scale deforestation is neither well observed nor well understood. Employing satellite datasets, this thesis shows a transition in the regional hydroclimate accompanying increasing scales of deforestation, with downwind deforested regions receiving 25% more and upwind deforested regions receiving 25% less precipitation from the deforested area mean. Simulations robustly reproduce these shifts when forced with increasing deforestation alone, suggesting a negligible role of large-scale decadal climate variability in causing the shifts. Furthermore, deforestation-induced surface roughness variations are found necessary to reproduce the observed spatial patterns in recent times illustrating the strong scale-sensitivity of the climatic response to Amazonian deforestation. This phenomenon, inconsequential during the wet season, is found to substantially affect the regional hydroclimate in the local dry and parts of

  20. Urban, Regional and Global Impacts of Biomass Burning Emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Artaxo, P.; Ferreira De Brito, J.; Barbosa, H. M.; Rizzo, L. V.; Setzer, A.; Cirino, G.

    2013-05-01

    Biomass burning is a major regional and global driver for atmospheric composition. Its effects in regional and global climate are very significant, but still difficult to assess. Even in large urban areas in Latin America such as Mexico City, Sao Paulo and Santiago, and in developed areas such as Paris and Californian cities it is possible to observe significant biomass burning effects air quality. The wood burning components as well as inner city and vicinities burning if agricultural residues impact heavily the concentration of organic aerosol, carbon monoxide and ozone in urban areas. Regionally, regions such as Amazonia and Central America show large plumes of smoke that extend their impact over continental areas, with changes in the radiation balance, air quality and climate. The deforestation rate in Amazonia have dropped strongly from 27,000 Km2 in 2004 to 6,200 Km2 in 2011, a very significant reduction, but this reduction was not observed in Africa and Southeast Asia. Health effects of biomass burning emissions are very significant, and observed in several key regions. Remote sensing techniques for fire detection have progressed significantly and long time series (10-15 years) are now feasible. The black carbon associated with biomass burning has important impacts in formation and development of clouds in Amazonia and other regions. The organic component of biomass burning emissions scatter light and increase diffuse radiation that alters carbon uptake in large regions of Amazonia and certainly other forested areas. Increase of up to 30% in carbon uptake associated with biomass burning emissions was observed in Amazonia, as part of the LBA Experiment. New analytical methods that quantify the absorption angstrom exponent of biomass burning and fossil fuel black carbon (BC) can differentiate BC from different burning sources. In addition, the hygroscopic properties of particles with a core shell of BC coated with organic compounds can be measured and shows

  1. Impact effects and regional tectonic insights: Backstripping the Chesapeake Bay impact structure

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hayden, T.; Kominz, M.; Powars, D.S.; Edwards, L.E.; Miller, K.G.; Browning, J.V.; Kulpecz, A.A.

    2008-01-01

    The Chesapeake Bay impact structure is a ca. 35.4 Ma crater located on the eastern seaboard of North America. Deposition returned to normal shortly after impact, resulting in a unique record of both impact-related and subsequent passive margin sedimentation. We use backstripping to show that the impact strongly affected sedimentation for 7 m.y. through impact-derived crustal-scale tectonics, dominated by the effects of sediment compaction and the introduction and subsequent removal of a negative thermal anomaly instead of the expected positive thermal anomaly. After this, the area was dominated by passive margin thermal subsidence overprinted by periods of regional-scale vertical tectonic events, on the order of tens of meters. Loading due to prograding sediment bodies may have generated these events. ?? 2008 The Geological Society of America.

  2. Salinity Impacts on Agriculture and Groundwater in Delta Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clarke, D.; Salehin, M.; Jairuddin, M.; Saleh, A. F. M.; Rahman, M. M.; Parks, K. E.; Haque, M. A.; Lázár, A. N.; Payo, A.

    2015-12-01

    Delta regions are attractive for high intensity agriculture due to the availability of rich sedimentary soils and of fresh water. Many of the world's tropical deltas support high population densities which are reliant on irrigated agriculture. However environmental changes such as sea level rise, tidal inundation and reduced river flows have reduced the quantity and quality of water available for successful agriculture. Additionally, anthropogenic influences such as the over abstraction of ground water and the increased use of low quality water from river inlets has resulted in the accumulation of salts in the soils which diminishes crop productivity. Communities based in these regions are usually reliant on the same water for drinking and cooking because surface water is frequently contaminated by commercial and urban pollution. The expansion of shallow tube well systems for drinking water and agricultural use over the last few decades has resulted in mobilisation of salinity in the coastal and estuarine fringes. Sustainable development in delta regions is becoming constrained by water salinity. However salinity is often studied as an independent issue by specialists working in the fields of agriculture, community water supply and groundwater. The lack of interaction between these disciplines often results in corrective actions being applied to one sector without fully assessing the effects of these actions on other sectors. This paper describes a framework for indentifying the causes and impacts of salinity in delta regions based on the source-pathway-receptor framework. It uses examples and scenarios from the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta in Bangladesh together with field measurements and observations made in vulnerable coastal communities. The paper demonstrates the importance of creating an holistic understanding of the development and management of water resources to reduce the impact of salinity in fresh water in delta regions.

  3. The Regional Environmental Impacts of Atmospheric Aerosols over Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zakey, Ashraf; Ibrahim, Alaa

    2015-04-01

    Identifying the origin (natural versus anthropogenic) and the dynamics of aerosols over Egypt at varying temporal and spatial scales provide valuable knowledge on the regional climate impacts of aerosols and their ultimate connections to the Earth's regional climate system at the MENA region. At regional scale, Egypt is exposed to air pollution with levels exceeding typical air-quality standards. This is particularly true for the Nile Delta region, being at the crossroads of different aerosol species originating from local urban-industrial and biomass-burning activities, regional dust sources, and European pollution from the north. The Environmental Climate Model (EnvClimA) is used to investigate both of the biogenic and anthropogenic aerosols over Egypt. The dominant natural aerosols over Egypt are due to the sand and dust storms, which frequently occur during the transitional seasons (spring and autumn). In winter, the maximum frequency reaches 2 to 3 per day in the north, which decreases gradually southward with a frequency of 0.5-1 per day. Monitoring one of the most basic aerosol parameters, the aerosol optical depth (AOD), is a main experimental and modeling task in aerosol studies. We used the aerosol optical depth to quantify the amount and variability of aerosol loading in the atmospheric column over a certain areas. The aerosols optical depth from the model is higher in spring season due to the impacts of dust activity over Egypt as results of the westerly wind, which carries more dust particles from the Libyan Desert. The model result shows that the mass load of fine aerosols has a longer life-time than the coarse aerosols. In autumn season, the modelled aerosol optical depth tends to increase due to the biomass burning in the delta of Egypt. Natural aerosol from the model tends to scatter the solar radiation while most of the anthropogenic aerosols tend to absorb the longwave solar radiation. The overall results indicate that the AOD is lowest in winter

  4. Regional and Global Impacts of Megacity Air Pollution in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Renyi

    2014-05-01

    Air quality has deteriorated in many megacities of China because of their rapid economic developments. For example, as the world's second largest economy, China has experienced severe air pollution, with aerosols or fine particulate matter less than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) reaching unprecedented high levels across many cities in recent winters. In addition to the impacts of aerosols on air chemistry, visibility, and human health, intense aerosol pollution is believed to exert profound impacts on the regional and global atmosphere and climate. In the first part of the talk, perspectives are provided on formation and transformation of haze in China. In the second part the long-term impacts of aerosols on precipitation and lightning over a megacity area in China will be presented, on the basis of atmospheric observations and simulations using a cloud-resolving WRF model. Our results reveal that elevated aerosol loading suppresses light and moderate precipitation, but enhances heavy precipitation. Also, we demonstrate climatically modulated mid-latitude cyclones by Asian pollution over past three decades, using a novel hierarchical modeling approach and observational analysis. Our results unambiguously reveal a large impact of the Asian pollutant outflows on the global general circulation and climate.

  5. Forecasting energy security impacts of biofuels using regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, X.; Campbell, E.; Snyder, M. A.; Sloan, L.; Kueppers, L. M.

    2010-12-01

    Production of biofuels in the U.S. is growing rapidly, with corn providing the dominant feedstock for current production and corn stover potentially providing a critical feedstock source for future cellulosic ethanol production. While production of domestic biofuels is thought to improve energy security, future changes in climate may impact crop yield variability and erode the energy security benefits of biofuels. Here we examine future yield variability for corn and soy using RegCM regional climate data from NARCAPP, historical agronomic data, and statistical models of yield variability. Our simulations of historical yield anomalies using monthly temperature and precipitation data from RegCM show robust relationships to observed yield anomalies. Simulations of future yield anomalies show increased yield variability relative to historical yield variability in the region of high corn production. Since variability in energy supply is a critical concern for energy security we suggest that the climate-induced yield variability on critical biofuels feedstocks be explored more widely.

  6. Potential impact of U.S. biofuels on regional climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgescu, M.; Lobell, D. B.; Field, C. B.

    2009-11-01

    Recent work has shown that current bio-energy policy directives may have harmful, indirect consequences, affecting both food security and the global climate system. An additional unintended but direct effect of large-scale biofuel production is the impact on local and regional climate resulting from changes in the energy and moisture balance of the surface upon conversion to biofuel crops. Using the latest version of the WRF modeling system we conducted twenty-four, midsummer, continental-wide, sensitivity experiments by imposing realistic biophysical parameter limits appropriate for bio-energy crops in the Corn Belt of the United States. In the absence of strain/crop-specific parameterizations, a primary goal of this work was to isolate the maximum regional climate impact, for a trio of individual July months, due to land-use change resulting from bio-energy crops and to identify the relative importance of each biophysical parameter in terms of its individual effect. Maximum, local changes in 2 m temperature of the order of 1°C occur for the full breadth of albedo (ALB), minimum canopy resistance (RCMIN), and rooting depth (ROOT) specifications, while the regionally (105°W-75°W and 35°N-50°N) and monthly averaged response of 2 m temperature was most pronounced for the ALB and RCMIN experiments, exceeding 0.2°C. The full range of albedo variability associated with biofuel crops may be sufficient to drive regional changes in summertime rainfall. Individual parameter effects on 2 m temperature are additive, highlight the cooling contribution of higher leaf area index (LAI) and ROOT for perennial grasses (e.g., Miscanthus) versus annual crops (e.g., maize), and underscore the necessity of improving location- and vegetation-specific representation of RCMIN and ALB.

  7. Regional climate impacts of a biofuels policy projection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, Christopher J.; Anex, Robert P.; Arritt, Raymond W.; Gelder, Brian K.; Khanal, Sami; Herzmann, Daryl E.; Gassman, Phillip W.

    2013-03-01

    The potential for regional climate change arising from adoption of policies to increase production of biofuel feedstock is explored using a regional climate model. Two simulations are performed using the same atmospheric forcing data for the period 1979-2004, one with present-day land use and monthly phenology and the other with land use specified from an agro-economic prediction of energy crop distribution and monthly phenology consistent with this land use change. In Kansas and Oklahoma, where the agro-economic model predicts 15-30% conversion to switchgrass, the regional climate model simulates locally lower temperature (especially in spring), slightly higher relative humidity in spring and slightly lower relative humidity in summer, and summer depletion of soil moisture. This shows the potential for climate impacts of biofuel policies and raises the question of whether soil water depletion may limit biomass crop productivity in agricultural areas that are responsive to the policies. We recommend the use of agronomic models to evaluate the possibility that soil moisture depletion could reduce productivity of biomass crops in this region. We conclude, therefore, that agro-economic and climate models should be used iteratively to examine an ensemble of agricultural land use and climate scenarios, thereby reducing the possibility of unforeseen consequences from rapid changes in agricultural production systems.

  8. The Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation Impact on Regional Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, Rolf; Valev, Dimitar; Atanassov, Atanas; Danov, Dimitar; Guineva, Veneta; Kirillov, Andrey S.

    2016-07-01

    The Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) shows a period of about 60-70 years. Over the time span from 1860 up to 2014 the AMO has had a strong climate impact on the Northern Hemisphere. The AMO is considered to be related to the Atlantic overturning circulation, but the origin of the oscillation is not fully understood up till now. To study the AMO impact on climate, the Hadcrut4, Crut4 and HadSST3 temperature data sets have been employed in the current study. The influence of the AMO on the zonal and meridional temperature distribution has been investigated in detail. The strongest zonal AMO impact was obtained in the Arctic region. The results indicated that the AMO influence on temperature at Southern latitudes was opposite in phase compared to the temperature influence in the Northern Hemisphere, in agreement with the well known heat transfer phenomenon from South to North Atlantic. In the Northern Hemisphere the strongest AMO temperature impact was found over the Atlantic and America. In the West from American continent, over the Pacific, the AMO impact was the lowest obtained over the whole Northern Hemisphere. The Rocky Mountains and Sierra Madre, connected with it southwards, built up an atmospheric circulation barrier preventing a strong propagation of the AMO temperature signal westerly. The amplitude of the AMO index itself was greater during summer-fall. However stronger AMO influence on the Northern Hemisphere temperatures was found during the fall-winter season, when the differences between the Northern Hemisphere temperatures and the temperatures in the tropics were the greatest.

  9. ClimateImpactsOnline: A web platform for regional climate impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nocke, Thomas

    2013-04-01

    Climate change is widely known but there is often uncertainty about the specific effects. One of the key tasks is - beyond discussing climate change and its impacts in specialist groups - to present these to a wider audience. In that respect, decision-makers in the public sector as well as directly affected professional groups require to obtain easy-to-understand information. These groups are not made up of specialist scientists. This gives rise to two challenges: (1) the complex information must be presented such that it is commonly understood, and (2) access to the information must be easy. Interested parties do not have time to familiarize themselves over a lengthy period, but rather want to immediately work with the information. Beside providing climate information globally, regional information become of increasing interest for local decision making regarding awareness building and adaptation options. In addition, current web portals mainly focus on climate information, considering climate impacts on different sectors only implicitly. As solution, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and WetterOnline have jointly developed an Internet portal that is easy to use, groups together interesting information about climate impacts and offers it in a directly usable form. This new web portal ClimateImpactsOnline.com provides detailed information, combining multiple sectors for the test case of Germany. For this region, numerous individual studies on climate change have been prepared by various institutions. These studies differ in terms of their aim, region and time period of interest. Thus, the goal of ClimateImpactsOnline.com is to present a synthesized view on regional impacts of global climate change on hydrology, agriculture, forest, energy, tourism and health sector. The climate and impact variables are available on a decadal time resolution for the period from 1901-2100, combining observed data and future projections. Detailed information are presented

  10. Scenarios of bioenergy development impacts on regional groundwater withdrawals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Mitchell, Rob B.; Guan, Qingfeng; McCoy, Tim D.

    2013-01-01

    Irrigation increases agricultural productivity, but it also stresses water resources (Huffaker and Hamilton 2007). Drought and the potential for drier conditions resulting from climate change could strain water supplies in landscapes where human populations rely on finite groundwater resources for drinking, agriculture, energy, and industry (IPCC 2007). For instance, in the North American Great Plains, rowcrops are utilized for livestock feed, food, and bioenergy production (Cassman and Liska 2007), and a large portion is irrigated with groundwater from the High Plains aquifer system (McGuire 2011). Under projected future climatic conditions, greater crop water use requirements and diminished groundwater recharge rates could make rowcrop irrigation less feasible in some areas (Rosenberg et al. 1999; Sophocleous 2005). The Rainwater Basin region of south central Nebraska, United States, is an intensively farmed and irrigated Great Plains landscape dominated by corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max L.) production (Bishop and Vrtiska 2008). Ten starch-based ethanol plants currently service the region, producing ethanol from corn grain (figure 1). In this study, we explore the potential of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), a drought-tolerant alternative bioenergy feedstock, to impact regional annual groundwater withdrawals for irrigation under warmer and drier future conditions. Although our research context is specific to the Rainwater Basin and surrounding North American Great Plains, we believe the broader research question is internationally pertinent and hope that this study simulates similar research in other areas.

  11. A Multihazard Regional Level Impact Assessment for South Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amarnath, Giriraj; Alahacoon, Niranga; Aggarwal, Pramod; Smakhtin, Vladimir

    2016-04-01

    To prioritize climate adaptation strategies, there is a need for quantitative and systematic regional-level assessments which are comparable across multiple climatic hazard regimes. Assessing which countries in a region are most vulnerable to climate change requires analysis of multiple climatic hazards including: droughts, floods, extreme temperature as well as rainfall and sea-level rise. These five climatic hazards, along with population densities were modelled using GIS which enabled a summary of associated human exposure and agriculture losses. A combined index based on hazard, exposure and adaptive capacity is introduced to identify areas of extreme risks. The analysis results in population climate hazard exposure defined as the relative likelihood that a person in a given location was exposed to a given climate-hazard event in a given period of time. The study presents a detailed and coherent approach to fine-scale climate hazard mapping and identification of risks areas for the regions of South Asia that, for the first time, combines the following unique features: (a) methodological consistency across different climate-related hazards, (b) assessment of total exposure on population and agricultural losses, (c) regional-level spatial coverage, and (d) development of customized tools using ArcGIS toolbox that allow assessment of changes in exposure over time and easy replacement of existing datasets with a newly released or superior datasets. The resulting maps enable comparison of the most vulnerable regions in South Asia to climate-related hazards and is among the most urgent of policy needs. Subnational areas (regions/districts/provinces) most vulnerable to climate change impacts in South Asia are documented. The approach involves overlaying climate hazard maps, sensitivity maps, and adaptive capacity maps following the vulnerability assessment framework of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study used data on the

  12. Regional Impacts of Carbonaceous Aerosols, 1850-2100

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauer, S. E.; Bausch, A.; Nazarenko, L. S.; Tsigaridis, K.; McConnell, J. R.

    2012-12-01

    Measurements of carbonaceous aerosols in ice cores allow us to study historical atmospheric compositions. These datasets in combination with climate models are of great value when examining the role of anthropogenic emissions of carbonaceous aerosols and their role in past and future climates. In this presentation we analyze four transient climate simulations performed with the GISS-modelE climate model. Simulations differ in ocean couplings and aerosol schemes. One aerosol scheme, MATRIX, resolves aerosol microphysics and tracks mass-, number concentrations and aerosol mixing state information. The second scheme is a mass based scheme, but includes a secondary organic aerosol model. The two oceans are ocean A, which uses prescribed sea surface temperatures, and ocean C, a fully coupled dynamical ocean model. Regional analysis for past and future (1850-2100) simulations will focus on Greenland, the Himalayas and the Antarctic. Each region has its specific characteristic; Greenland's historic atmospheric chemistry is strongly influenced by pre-industrial land clearing, whereas its future seems to be dominated by cloud feedbacks; the Antarctic is a good indicator for remote background conditions here differences in aging and removal between the different schemes can be detected; the Himalayas show the most complicated feedbacks, due to its complex terrain, several distinctive different air-mass types influence the region as well as dynamical systems. The two different ocean schemes show a shift in the ITCZ, impacting the distribution of carbonaceous aerosols. In the end, future climate projections of the focus regions along CMIP5s four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) will be presented.

  13. Regional United States electric field and GIC hazard impacts (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gannon, J. L.; Balch, C. C.; Trichtchenko, L.

    2013-12-01

    Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) are primarily driven by impulsive geomagnetic disturbances created by the interaction between the Earth's magnetosphere and sharp velocity, density, and magnetic field enhancements in the solar wind. However, the magnitude of the induced electric field response at the ground level, and therefore the resulting hazard to the bulk power system, is determined not only by magnetic drivers, but also by the underlying geology. Convolution techniques are used to calculate surface electric fields beginning from the spectral characteristics of magnetic field drivers and the frequency response of the local geology. Using these techniques, we describe historical scenarios for regions across the United States, and the potential impact of large events on electric power infrastructure.

  14. Impact of High Resolution SST Data on Regional Weather Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Case, Jonathon; LaFontaine, Frank; Vazquez, Jorge; Mattocks, Craig

    2010-01-01

    Past studies have shown that the use of coarse resolution SST products such as from the real-time global (RTG) SST analysis[1] or other coarse resolution once-a-day products do not properly portray the diurnal variability of fluxes of heat and moisture from the ocean that drive the formation of low level clouds and precipitation over the ocean. For example, the use of high resolution MODIS SST composite [2] to initialize the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) (ARW) [3] has been shown to improve the prediction of sensible weather parameters in coastal regions [4][5}. In an extend study, [6] compared the MODIS SST composite product to the RTG SST analysis and evaluated forecast differences for a 6 month period from March through August 2007 over the Florida coastal regions. In a comparison to buoy data, they found that that the MODIS SST composites reduced the bias and standard deviation over that of the RTG data. These improvements led to significant changes in the initial and forecasted heat fluxes and the resulting surface temperature fields, wind patterns, and cloud distributions. They also showed that the MODIS composite SST product, produced for the Terra and Aqua satellite overpass times, captured a component of the diurnal cycle in SSTs not represented in the RTG or other one-a-day SST analyses. Failure to properly incorporate these effects in the WRF initialization cycle led to temperature biases in the resulting short term forecasts. The forecast impact was limited in some situations however, due to composite product inaccuracies brought about by data latency during periods of long-term cloud cover. This paper focuses on the forecast impact of an enhanced MODIS/AMSR-E composite SST product designed to reduce inaccuracies due data latency in the MODIS only composite product.

  15. Outreach impact study: the case of the Greater Midwest Region*

    PubMed Central

    Huber, Jeffrey T; Kean, Emily B; Fitzgerald, Philip D; Altman, Trina A; Young, Zach G; Dupin, Katherine M; Leskovec, Jacqueline; Holst, Ruth

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: The purpose of the study was to assess the impact that funding from the National Network of Libraries of Medicine (NN/LM), Greater Midwest Region (GMR), has on member institutions' ability to conduct outreach on behalf of NN/LM. Methods: The study employed both content analysis and survey methodologies. The final reports from select GMR-funded outreach projects (n = 20) were analyzed based on a set of evaluation criteria. Project principal investigators (n = 13) were then surveyed using the same evaluation criteria. Results: Results indicated that outreach projects supported by GMR funding improved access to biomedical information for professionals and the general public. Barriers to conducting outreach projects included time constraints or commitments, staffing, scheduling and absenteeism, inadequate space, and issues associated with technology (e.g., hardware and software, Internet connectivity and firewall issues, and creation and use of new technologies). Conclusions: The majority of project principal investigators indicated that their attempts to conduct outreach were successful. Moreover, most noted that outreach had a positive impact on professionals as well as the general public. In general, it seems that negative outcomes, as with most barriers to conducting outreach, can be mitigated by more thorough planning. PMID:22022223

  16. Octarepeat region flexibility impacts prion function, endoproteolysis and disease manifestation

    PubMed Central

    Lau, Agnes; McDonald, Alex; Daude, Nathalie; Mays, Charles E; Walter, Eric D; Aglietti, Robin; Mercer, Robert CC; Wohlgemuth, Serene; van der Merwe, Jacques; Yang, Jing; Gapeshina, Hristina; Kim, Chae; Grams, Jennifer; Shi, Beipei; Wille, Holger; Balachandran, Aru; Schmitt-Ulms, Gerold; Safar, Jiri G; Millhauser, Glenn L; Westaway, David

    2015-01-01

    The cellular prion protein (PrPC) comprises a natively unstructured N-terminal domain, including a metal-binding octarepeat region (OR) and a linker, followed by a C-terminal domain that misfolds to form PrPSc in Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. PrPC β-endoproteolysis to the C2 fragment allows PrPSc formation, while α-endoproteolysis blocks production. To examine the OR, we used structure-directed design to make novel alleles, ‘S1’ and ‘S3’, locking this region in extended or compact conformations, respectively. S1 and S3 PrP resembled WT PrP in supporting peripheral nerve myelination. Prion-infected S1 and S3 transgenic mice both accumulated similar low levels of PrPSc and infectious prion particles, but differed in their clinical presentation. Unexpectedly, S3 PrP overproduced C2 fragment in the brain by a mechanism distinct from metal-catalysed hydrolysis reported previously. OR flexibility is concluded to impact diverse biological endpoints; it is a salient variable in infectious disease paradigms and modulates how the levels of PrPSc and infectivity can either uncouple or engage to drive the onset of clinical disease. PMID:25661904

  17. Impacts of climate change on infrastructure in permafrost regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beloloutskaia, M.; Anisimov, O.

    2003-04-01

    There is a growing evidence of enhanced warming over the permafrost regions, and significant impacts on natural and human systems are expected. Changes in the temperature, distribution, and depth of seasonal thawing of permafrost will have direct and immediate implications for the infrastructure built upon it. The mechanical strength of permafrost decreases with warming, resulting in damage to and possible failure of buildings, pipelines, and transportation facilities. Extensive infrastructure was developed in the Arctic largely in association with the extraction and transportation industries. Several large cities in Russia with few hundred thousand population are of particular concern since many buildings there have already been affected by the changes in permafrost properties. Detrimental changes in permafrost conditions are often not abrupt. Instead, they evolve gradually and can be predicted and monitored, allowing avoidance of catastrophic events and mitigation of negative consequences. Climate-induced threats to infrastructure in permafrost regions may be evaluated using a numerical "settlement" index, Iset, which allows to classify modern permafrost with respect to its potential for thermokarst development: Iset = dZ * W, where dZ is the relative change in the depth of seasonal thawing predicted by permafrost model for the conditions of the future climate and W is the volumetric proportion of near surface soil occupied by ground ice. Permafrost model of intermediate complexity (Koudriavtcev's model) was used with selected GCM-based scenarios of climate change to construct predictive maps of "settlement" index for the mid-21st century. Circumpolar permafrost area was partitioned into zones of high, moderate, and low hazard potential. Despite discrepancies in details, all scenarios yield a zone in the high-risk category distributed discontinuously around the margins of the Arctic Ocean, indicating high potential for coastal erosion. Several population centers

  18. A New Map of the Tyre Impact Region of Europa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyer, H. M.; Prockter, L. M.

    2013-12-01

    Images of the Tyre feature obtained by the Galileo spacecraft's Solid State Imager (SSI) at ~170 m/pixel show concentric graben and multiple secondary craters surrounding a central rough-textured circular region, indicating an impact origin. Only crosscut by two double ridges and a large fracture, the crater is young relative to the surrounding terrain. The crater and its surroundings were mapped by Kadel et al. (2000), who also interpreted the geological history of the region. We have remapped the Tyre area for the specific purpose of creating a product that can be used for detailed comparison with 6 km/pixel Galileo Near-Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (NIMS) data. The combined SSI and NIMS product will be used to determine variations in composition among different units using linear mixture modeling employing cryogenic laboratory reference spectra, a technique that has been successfully implemented elsewhere on Europa by e.g., Shirley et al. (2010). The major difference between our mapping results and those of Kadel et al. is that we subdivide some of the units, in order to better compare them with NIMS pixels in the next (future) phase of the study. We use an orthographic projection centered at 34 N, 146 W, and construct a geologic map that extends from 25 N to 42 N and 153 W to 133 W. We identify a number of units, subunits and structural features on the basis of relative albedo and morphology. The units are grouped into six categories: Crater materials, chaos, ridges, bands, pre-impact background terrains, and indeterminate features. Many of these units are consistent with those found in the Kadel et al. study, but we find a number of bands and chaos-related materials in the background ridged plains, that have not been mapped elsewhere. These are of a sufficient size to be relevant to our future compositional analysis. We find three types of chaos (compared to two from the previous study), which are primarily concentrated in the south of the study region. Type

  19. Climatic Consequences and Agricultural Impact of Regional Nuclear Conflict

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robock, Alan; Mills, Michael; Toon, Owen Brian; Xia, Lili

    2013-04-01

    A nuclear war between India and Pakistan, with each country using 50 Hiroshima-sized atom bombs as airbursts on urban areas, would inject smoke from the resulting fires into the stratosphere. This could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and global-scale ozone depletion, with enhanced ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the surface. Simulations with the NCAR Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), run at higher vertical and horizontal resolution than a previous simulation with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE, and incorporating ozone chemistry for the first time, show a longer stratospheric residence time for smoke and hence a longer-lasting climate response, with global average surface air temperatures still 1.1 K below normal and global average precipitation 4% below normal after a decade. The erythemal dose from the enhanced UV radiation would greatly increase, in spite of enhanced absorption by the remaining smoke, with the UV index more than 3 units higher in the summer midlatitudes, even after a decade. Scenarios of changes in temperature, precipitation, and downward shortwave radiation from the ModelE and WACCM simulations, applied to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model for winter wheat, rice, soybeans, and maize by perturbing observed time series with anomalies from the regional nuclear war simulations, produce decreases of 10-50% in yield averaged over a decade, with larger decreases in the first several years, over several regions in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The impact of the nuclear war simulated here, using much less than 1% of the global nuclear arsenal, would be devastating to world agricultural production and trade, possibly sentencing a billion people now living marginal existences to starvation. The continued environmental threat of the use of even a small number of nuclear weapons must be considered in nuclear policy deliberations in Russia

  20. In Brief: U.S. regional impacts of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2007-12-01

    On 4 December, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change released a report that assesses climate vulnerabilities in four different areas of the United States. ``Regional impacts of climate change: Four case studies in the United States'' notes that midwestern cities are likely to experience more frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves; that wildfires are likely to increase in the U.S. West; that sustaining fragile Gulf Coast wetlands ecosystems will be increasingly difficult due to climate change; and that the Chesapeake Bay may respond to climate change with more frequent and larger hypoxia events. The report indicates that adaptation measures need to be a critical component of any long-term U.S. climate strategy. ``The degree to which we can adapt to the consequences of climate change will be determined in large part by the policies and management practices we put in place today,'' said Pew Center president Eileen Claussen. For more information, visit the Web site: http://www.pewclimate.org.

  1. Regional Actions to Address Climate Change Impacts on Water

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA's ten regions work to address climate change on a local level, implementing regionally important solutions and working with stakeholders on the ground. Many regional partners work closely with EPA to better implement climate solutions

  2. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Alaska Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGuire, D.

    2009-12-01

    The assessment of the Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States includes analyses of the potential climate change impacts in Alaska. The resulting findings are discussed in this presentation, with the effects on water resources discussed separately. Major findings include: Summers are getting hotter and drier, with increasing evaporation outpacing increased precipitation. Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. These impacts are different from region to region and will grow under projected climate change. Wildfires and insect problems are increasing. Climate plays a key role in determining the extent and severity of insect outbreaks and wildfire. The area burned in North America’s northern forest that spans Alaska and Canada tripled from the 1960s to the 1990s. During the 1990s, south-central Alaska experienced the largest outbreak of spruce bark beetles in the world because of warmer weather in all seasons of the year. Under changing climate conditions, the average area burned per year in Alaska is projected to double by the middle of this century10. By the end of this century, area burned by fire is projected to triple under a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario and to quadruple under a higher emissions scenario. Close-bodied lakes are declining in area. A continued decline in the area of surface water would present challenges for the management of natural resources and ecosystems on National Wildlife Refuges in Alaska. These refuges, which cover over 77 million acres (21 percent of Alaska) and comprise 81 percent of the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System, provide a breeding habitat for millions of waterfowl and shorebirds that winter in the lower 48 states. Permafrost thawing will damage public and private infrastructure. Land subsidence (sinking) associated with the thawing of permafrost presents substantial challenges to engineers attempting to preserve infrastructure in

  3. Digital sequences and a time reversal-based impact region imaging and localization method.

    PubMed

    Qiu, Lei; Yuan, Shenfang; Mei, Hanfei; Qian, Weifeng

    2013-10-01

    To reduce time and cost of damage inspection, on-line impact monitoring of aircraft composite structures is needed. A digital monitor based on an array of piezoelectric transducers (PZTs) is developed to record the impact region of impacts on-line. It is small in size, lightweight and has low power consumption, but there are two problems with the impact alarm region localization method of the digital monitor at the current stage. The first one is that the accuracy rate of the impact alarm region localization is low, especially on complex composite structures. The second problem is that the area of impact alarm region is large when a large scale structure is monitored and the number of PZTs is limited which increases the time and cost of damage inspections. To solve the two problems, an impact alarm region imaging and localization method based on digital sequences and time reversal is proposed. In this method, the frequency band of impact response signals is estimated based on the digital sequences first. Then, characteristic signals of impact response signals are constructed by sinusoidal modulation signals. Finally, the phase synthesis time reversal impact imaging method is adopted to obtain the impact region image. Depending on the image, an error ellipse is generated to give out the final impact alarm region. A validation experiment is implemented on a complex composite wing box of a real aircraft. The validation results show that the accuracy rate of impact alarm region localization is approximately 100%. The area of impact alarm region can be reduced and the number of PZTs needed to cover the same impact monitoring region is reduced by more than a half.

  4. Digital Sequences and a Time Reversal-Based Impact Region Imaging and Localization Method

    PubMed Central

    Qiu, Lei; Yuan, Shenfang; Mei, Hanfei; Qian, Weifeng

    2013-01-01

    To reduce time and cost of damage inspection, on-line impact monitoring of aircraft composite structures is needed. A digital monitor based on an array of piezoelectric transducers (PZTs) is developed to record the impact region of impacts on-line. It is small in size, lightweight and has low power consumption, but there are two problems with the impact alarm region localization method of the digital monitor at the current stage. The first one is that the accuracy rate of the impact alarm region localization is low, especially on complex composite structures. The second problem is that the area of impact alarm region is large when a large scale structure is monitored and the number of PZTs is limited which increases the time and cost of damage inspections. To solve the two problems, an impact alarm region imaging and localization method based on digital sequences and time reversal is proposed. In this method, the frequency band of impact response signals is estimated based on the digital sequences first. Then, characteristic signals of impact response signals are constructed by sinusoidal modulation signals. Finally, the phase synthesis time reversal impact imaging method is adopted to obtain the impact region image. Depending on the image, an error ellipse is generated to give out the final impact alarm region. A validation experiment is implemented on a complex composite wing box of a real aircraft. The validation results show that the accuracy rate of impact alarm region localization is approximately 100%. The area of impact alarm region can be reduced and the number of PZTs needed to cover the same impact monitoring region is reduced by more than a half. PMID:24084123

  5. Regional Impacts of Climate Change in the Caribou Chilcotin Region, Fraser River Basin, BC, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bennett, K. E.; Werner, A. T.; Salathé, E. P.; Schnorbus, M.; Nelitz, M.; David, R. R.

    2009-05-01

    The terrain and climate of British Columbia (BC) is some of the most complex in the country, and is likely going to face unprecedented changes in hydrology due to the impacts of climate change. The Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) was formed in 2005 to produce tools to determine how water resources in BC and its surrounding provinces, territories and states are being affected by climate change. PCIC's first large-scale watershed modelling project implemented, in collaboration with the River Forecast Centre and the University of Washington, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model in several major BC watersheds. Future scenarios were developed to analyse the impacts of climate change on snowpack, streamflow and soil moisture in these basins. The current study focuses on the methods to develop future scenarios and the results of the hydrologic modelling. Six different GCM emissions scenarios were selected for BC from the AR4 scenarios. A modified bias correction and statistical downscaling (BCSD) technique created at the University of Washington was used to downscale GCM results to the scale of gridded historical forcings data to generate transient-daily time step, regional-scale projections of future climate change. These forcings were then used to drive the VIC macro-scale hydrologic model. A comparison of forcings for the historical period (1961-1990) from the downscaled GCM data to the forcings created from the observed records on the monthly-timescale demonstrated that the downscaled data captured the range of variability present in the 1961-1990 period in large and medium sized basins quite well. Accurately downscaling data for application in small basins was more difficult. Daily results created with the original BCSD technique were unrealistic in places and problematic for application in hydrologic models, such as VIC that depend on an accurate daily temperature range to model evaporation and snowpack. Results for the Fraser Basin study include

  6. Climatic Consequences and Agricultural Impact of Regional Nuclear Conflict

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toon, O. B.; Robock, A.; Mills, M. J.; Xia, L.

    2013-05-01

    A nuclear war between India and Pakistan, with each country using 50 Hiroshima-sized atom bombs as airbursts on urban areas, would inject smoke from the resulting fires into the stratosphere.This could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and global-scale ozone depletion, with enhanced ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the surface.Simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), run at higher vertical and horizontal resolution than a previous simulation with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE, and incorporating ozone chemistry for the first time, show a longer stratospheric residence time for smoke and hence a longer-lasting climate response, with global average surface air temperatures still 1.1 K below normal and global average precipitation 4% below normal after a decade.The erythemal dose from the enhanced UV radiation would greatly increase, in spite of enhanced absorption by the remaining smoke, with the UV index more than 3 units higher in the summer midlatitudes, even after a decade. Scenarios of changes in temperature, precipitation, and downward shortwave radiation from the ModelE and WACCM simulations, applied to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model for winter wheat, rice, soybeans, and maize by perturbing observed time series with anomalies from the regional nuclear war simulations, produce decreases of 10-50% in yield averaged over a decade, with larger decreases in the first several years, over the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The impact of the nuclear war simulated here, using much less than 1% of the global nuclear arsenal, would be devastating to world agricultural production and trade, possibly sentencing a billion people now living marginal existences to starvation.The continued environmental threat of the use of even a small number of nuclear weapons must be considered in nuclear policy deliberations in Russia, the U.S., and the rest of

  7. The Study of Impacts of Water Transferring From Wet Regions To Dry Regions In Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Motiee-Homayoun, Dr.; Ghomashchi, Dr.

    Iran, with a very diverse ecology and different climate has been classified as a dry- semidry region. Iran's annual average of rain-fall is about 250 mm, while this figure is more than 1000 mm in north and less than 100 mm in the south of the country. Overall, Iran's water resources are low. Rapid population growth, economic growth together with significant urban development, in recent decades, has led to underestimate high demands for water. Therefore, water shortage has been considered more obviously. Such an important scare is rather serious in central and eastern regions of the country. This problem has been determined as a serious challenge for Iran's government and national water authorities, in particular. Although, drinking water supply is only 6 percent of total water resources, due to direct socio-political impacts, drinking water supply, in both quality and quantity, is more serious and important than agricultural water demands. Accordingly, for the following reasons: 1) Desperation and diversity of geographical conditions of urban areas 2) Low access to underground water 3) Inadequate quality surface water supply Difficulties and the costs of supplying urban water in Iran have been sharply increased. Presently, due to unconstrained consuming underground water and negative balance in most under ground resources of the country, more specifically in central and eastern regions, water supply from groundwater resources is very risky and misleading. Furthermore, other reason such as rapid urban population growth and changes in people's every day life and their consumption patterns increase both water consumption and waste water in the circumstances of inadequate sewage systems, make a vast source of pollution for water resources. Due to the influence of extended See (Salty) water, in southern provinces, near to Persian Gulf, accessibility to fresh water is rather difficult and in many cases only after tens of kilometers far from the see, fresh water could be

  8. Economic Impact of Dengue: Multicenter Study across Four Brazilian Regions

    PubMed Central

    Martelli, Celina Maria Turchi; Siqueira, Joao Bosco; Parente, Mirian Perpetua Palha Dias; Zara, Ana Laura de Sene Amancio; Oliveira, Consuelo Silva; Braga, Cynthia; Pimenta, Fabiano Geraldo; Cortes, Fanny; Lopez, Juan Guillermo; Bahia, Luciana Ribeiro; Mendes, Marcia Costa Ooteman; da Rosa, Michelle Quarti Machado; de Siqueira Filha, Noemia Teixeira; Constenla, Dagna; de Souza, Wayner Vieira

    2015-01-01

    Background Dengue is an increasing public health concern in Brazil. There is a need for an updated evaluation of the economic impact of dengue within the country. We undertook this multicenter study to evaluate the economic burden of dengue in Brazil. Methods We estimated the economic burden of dengue in Brazil for the years 2009 to 2013 and for the epidemic season of August 2012- September 2013. We conducted a multicenter cohort study across four endemic regions: Midwest, Goiania; Southeast, Belo Horizonte and Rio de Janeiro; Northeast: Teresina and Recife; and the North, Belem. Ambulatory or hospitalized cases with suspected or laboratory-confirmed dengue treated in both the private and public sectors were recruited. Interviews were scheduled for the convalescent period to ascertain characteristics of the dengue episode, date of first symptoms/signs and recovery, use of medical services, work/school absence, household spending (out-of-pocket expense) and income lost using a questionnaire developed for a previous cost study. We also extracted data from the patients’ medical records for hospitalized cases. Overall costs per case and cumulative costs were calculated from the public payer and societal perspectives. National cost estimations took into account cases reported in the official notification system (SINAN) with adjustment for underreporting of cases. We applied a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations with 90% certainty levels (CL). Results We screened 2,223 cases, of which 2,035 (91.5%) symptomatic dengue cases were included in our study. The estimated cost for dengue for the epidemic season (2012–2013) in the societal perspective was US$ 468 million (90% CL: 349–590) or US$ 1,212 million (90% CL: 904–1,526) after adjusting for under-reporting. Considering the time series of dengue (2009–2013) the estimated cost of dengue varied from US$ 371 million (2009) to US$ 1,228 million (2013). Conclusions The economic burden

  9. CLIMATE IMPACTS ON NUTRIENT FLUXES IN STREAM FLOW IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    As part of a national assessment process, researchers of the Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA) are studying the impacts of climate variation and change on the natural and social systems of the Mid-Atlantic Region. This poster presents research investigating climate impacts ...

  10. 77 FR 59703 - Environmental Impact Statement; Taos Regional Airport, Taos, NM

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-09-28

    ... Federal Aviation Administration Environmental Impact Statement; Taos Regional Airport, Taos, NM AGENCY...) for the ``Taos Regional Airport, Airport Layout Plan Improvements'' Environmental Impact Statement... requested the FAA to approve revisions to its Airport Layout Plan (ALP) to reflect and allow construction...

  11. Apollo 14 Impact Glasses and Clementine Data: Implications for Regional Geology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zellner, N. E. B.; Spudis, P. D.; Delano, J. W.; Whittet, D. C. B.

    2002-01-01

    Clementine color image data and analyses of 778 lunar impact glasses have been used together to suggest that the highlands of the Fra Mauro region consist of a KREEP-rich regolith overlying a feldspathic terrain. Low-KREEP impact glasses may possess a memory of impacts prior to 3.9 Ga ago. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  12. Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Mid-Atlantic Region (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect

    Keyser, D.; Tegen, S.; Flores, F.; Zammit, D.; Kraemer, M.; Miles, J.

    2014-01-01

    Offshore wind is a clean, renewable source of energy and can be an economic driver in the United States. To better understand the employment opportunities and other potential regional economic impacts from offshore wind development, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded research that focuses on four regions of the country. The studies use multiple scenarios with various local job and domestic manufacturing content assumptions. Each regional study uses the new offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This fact sheet summarizes the potential economic impacts for the Mid-Atlantic region.

  13. Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Gulf of Mexico Region (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect

    Flores, F.; Keyser, D.; Tegen, S.

    2014-01-01

    Offshore wind is a clean, renewable source of energy and can be an economic driver in the United States. To better understand the employment opportunities and other potential regional economic impacts from offshore wind development, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded research that focuses on four regions of the country. The studies use multiple scenarios with various local job and domestic manufacturing content assumptions. Each regional study uses the new offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This fact sheet summarizes the potential economic impacts for the Gulf of Mexico region.

  14. Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Great Lakes Region (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect

    Tegen, S.; Keyser, D.

    2014-01-01

    Offshore wind is a clean, renewable source of energy and can be an economic driver in the United States. To better understand the employment opportunities and other potential regional economic impacts from offshore wind development, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded research that focuses on four regions of the country. The studies use multiple scenarios with various local job and domestic manufacturing content assumptions. Each regional study uses the new offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model, developed by DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This fact sheet summarizes the potential economic impacts identified by the study for the Great Lakes region.

  15. Bioenergy feedstock development scenarios & potential impacts on regional groundwater withdrawals

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Availability of ample groundwater supplies for irrigation can increase the productive potential of agricultural landscapes; however, excessive withdrawals threaten sustainable use, and shortages could be exacerbated by drier future conditions in some regions. Throughout the North American Great Pla...

  16. Impacts of Irrigation Development on Regional Rainfall in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alter, R. E.; IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

    2014-12-01

    Potential modification of regional rainfall by large-scale cropland irrigation has been investigated in several regions of the world. In particular, regional climate simulations over West Africa indicate that hypothetical large-scale irrigation schemes reduce rainfall over the irrigated areas but enhance rainfall remotely. However, these theoretical results cannot be substantiated without direct comparison to observations. We therefore conducted two complementary analyses over an actual, large-scale irrigation scheme in Africa: numerical simulations using a regional climate model, and observational analyses using several surface-based and satellite-derived datasets. For the observational analyses, we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of both rainfall and air temperature in and around the irrigated area. For the numerical simulations, we examined multiple variables that contribute to an improved understanding of the mechanistic pathway between irrigation and rainfall modification. The results of both the simulations and observational analysis will be presented.

  17. Impacts of Irrigation Development on Regional Rainfall in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alter, R. E.; IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

    2015-12-01

    Potential modification of regional rainfall by large-scale cropland irrigation has been investigated in several regions of the world. In particular, regional climate simulations over West Africa indicate that hypothetical large-scale irrigation schemes reduce rainfall over the irrigated areas but enhance rainfall remotely. However, these theoretical results cannot be substantiated without direct comparison to observations. We therefore conducted two complementary analyses over an actual, large-scale irrigation scheme in Africa: numerical simulations using a regional climate model, and observational analyses using several surface-based and satellite-derived datasets. For the observational analyses, we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of both rainfall and air temperature in and around the irrigated area. For the numerical simulations, we examined multiple variables that contribute to an improved understanding of the mechanistic pathway between irrigation and rainfall modification. The results of both the simulations and observational analysis will be presented.

  18. Rise of China in the Caribbean: Impacts for Regional Security

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-12-13

    Caribbean security, this study seeks to explore China’s motives and ascertain whether any gradual erosion of US geopolitical influence in the region may...geopolitical interests and Caribbean security, this study seeks to explore China’s motives and ascertain whether any gradual erosion of US geopolitical...affect current regional security arrangements? Will the expansion of China and the perceived erosion of US geopolitical influence in the Caribbean

  19. Winter cover crops impact on corn production in semiarid regions

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Cover crops have been proposed as a technique to increase soil health. This study examined the impact of winter brassica cover crop cocktails grown after wheat (Triticum aestivum) on corn yields; corn yield losses due to water and N stress; soil bacteria to fungi ratios; mycorrhizal markers; and ge...

  20. Impact of Low-level Jet on Regional Ozone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, F.

    2011-12-01

    During spring and summer seasons, the frequent occurrences of nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ) over Great Plains region of the United States are widely recognized. As an important element of the low-level atmospheric circulation this LLJ effectively transports water vapor from the Gulf of Mexico, which in turn affects the development of server weather over the central United States. The LLJ has long been known to be conducive to summer rainfall and widespread flooding over the Great Plains of North America. The LLJ transports more than just moisture. Ozone episodes occur mainly during summer and are influenced by regional transport. Little is known, however,about the interrelation between the Great Plains LLJ and regional ozone transport. In this study, analysis of observational data during 1993-2006 has shown strong influence of the Great Plains LLJ on local and regional ozone distributions. Hourly ozone measurements from Air Quality System (AQS) are compared with wind fields at 850 hPa from the NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). It is demonstrated that the low ozone concentrations over Texas in late spring and summer are identified with large LLJ transport of clean marine air mass from the Gulf of Mexico. Significant negative correlations exist between daily ozone concentration and LLJ index (Figure 1), suggesting that lower ozone over Texas is associated with stronger LLJ. On the other hand, positive correlations occur in the Midwest and Northeast, indicating the important role of regional transport of ozone and precursors along the pathway by the wind circulation accompanying the LLJ. In addition, the LLJ is significantly correlated with northerly flows in the eastern Pacific Ocean and the adjacent coast. This relationship explains the coexistence of low ozone concentrations in Texas and southwestern U.S during summer, both attributed to the inland transport of clean marine air. These observed ozone-LLJ patterns are well simulated by the regional CMM5

  1. EDMOS in ultrathin FDSOI: Impact of the drift region properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Litty, Antoine; Ortolland, Sylvie; Golanski, Dominique; Dutto, Christian; Cristoloveanu, Sorin

    2016-11-01

    The development of high-voltage MOSFET (HVMOS) is necessary for including power management or radiofrequency functionalities in CMOS technology. In this paper, we investigate the fabrication and optimization of an Extended Drain MOSFET (EDMOS) directly integrated in the ultra-thin SOI film (7 nm) of the 28 nm FDSOI CMOS technology node. Thanks to TCAD simulations, we analyse in detail the device behaviour as a function of the doping level and length of the drift region. The influence of the back-plane doping type and of the back-biasing schemes is discussed. DC measurements of fabricated EDMOS samples reveal promising performances in particular in terms of specific on-resistance versus breakdown voltage trade-off. The experimental results indicate that, even in an ultrathin film, the engineering of the drift region could be a lever to obtain integrated HVMOS (3.3-5 V).

  2. KT boundary impact glasses from the Gulf of Mexico region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Claeys, Philippe; Alvarez, Walter; Smit, Jan; Hildebrand, A. R.; Montanari, Alessandro

    1993-01-01

    Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary (KTB) tektite glasses occur at several sites around the Gulf of Mexico. Contrary to rumor among KTB workers, glass fragments have been found by several researchers in the base of the spherule bed at Arroyo el Mimbral in NE Mexico. The presence of green, red, and transparent glass fragments at Mimbral only, demonstrates that the Mimbral glass is not a laboratory contamination by Beloc glass. The chemistry and ages of the glass are consistent with an origin from the Chixculub impact crater in Yucatan. No evidence supports a volcanic origin for the KTB glasses. A discussion of tektite glass from the KT boundary is presented.

  3. Sino-Myanmar Nexus: Regional Impact and US Strategy

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-03-01

    Chinese influence over Myanmar and the region. The concern of the US over Myanmar’s military cooperation with North Korea for acquiring missile and nuclear ...transgressions, and unpredictability on a range of significant challenges including North Korea , Iran , Afghanistan, the South China Sea, and freedom of...military cooperation with North Korea , and arms and drug trafficking as bargaining chips prior to implementing any decision that benefits Myanmar

  4. Impact of AIRS Thermodynamic Profile on Regional Weather Forecast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Brad; Jedlovee, Gary

    2010-01-01

    Prudent assimilation of AIRS thermodynamic profiles and quality indicators can improve initial conditions for regional weather models. AIRS-enhanced analysis has warmer and moister PBL. Forecasts with AIRS profiles are generally closer to NAM analyses than CNTL. Assimilation of AIRS leads to an overall QPF improvement in 6-h accumulated precipitation forecasts. Including AIRS profiles in assimilation process enhances the moist instability and produces stronger updrafts and a better precipitation forecast than the CNTL run.

  5. The impact of mineral dust on regional tropical circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bangalath, H.; Stenchikov, G. L.

    2012-12-01

    Dust aerosols from the West Asian and African subtropical deserts likely play an important role in regional low-latitude circulation patterns. These aerosols both absorb solar and terrestrial radiation and reflect solar radiation and therefore both cool the surface and warm the lower troposphere. Since the distribution of dust is spatially non-uniform, its cooling/heating effect could significantly disturb regional temperature and pressure fields and affect tropical circulation patterns, including the Hadley and Walker Cells, as well as the Monsoon Circulation. Here, we investigate the direct radiative effect of desert dust on the circulation over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and South Asia regions using the high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (HiRAM) developed at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. We conducted simulations with and without dust aerosols with a spatial resolution of 25 km globally, which allowed investigation of the regional features of the tropical circulations and their interactions with global-scale processes. Our analysis of the 200 hPa velocity potential indicated that mineral dust increased the strength of the Hadley Cell. In general, the Hadley, Walker, and Monsoon circulations over the African continent and East Atlantic were intensified by the dust effect, whereas we observed the opposite response over the Pacific. An anomalous strengthening of the wind convergence at the northern border of the Hadley cell over the African continent and in the East Atlantic, especially in the summer, became evident from our simulations. We found that dust aerosols play an important role in the formation of the climate and circulation regimes over MENA and South Asia, suggesting that they should be accounted for in future climate projections.

  6. Impact of regional climate change on human health.

    PubMed

    Patz, Jonathan A; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A

    2005-11-17

    The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.

  7. Impact of regional climate change on human health

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patz, Jonathan A.; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A.

    2005-11-01

    The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.

  8. Local and regional smoke impacts from prescribed fires

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Price, Owen F.; Horsey, Bronwyn; Jiang, Ningbo

    2016-10-01

    Smoke from wildfires poses a significant threat to affected communities. Prescribed burning is conducted to reduce the extent and potential damage of wildfires, but produces its own smoke threat. Planners of prescribed fires model the likely dispersion of smoke to help manage the impacts on local communities. Significant uncertainty remains about the actual smoke impact from prescribed fires, especially near the fire, and the accuracy of smoke dispersal models. To address this uncertainty, a detailed study of smoke dispersal was conducted for one small (52 ha) and one large (700 ha) prescribed fire near Appin in New South Wales, Australia, through the use of stationary and handheld pollution monitors, visual observations and rain radar data, and by comparing observations to predictions from an atmospheric dispersion model. The 52 ha fire produced a smoke plume about 800 m high and 9 km long. Particle concentrations (PM2.5) reached very high peak values (> 400 µg m-3) and high 24 h average values (> 100 µg m-3) at several locations next to or within ˜ 500 m downwind from the fire, but low levels elsewhere. The 700 ha fire produced a much larger plume, peaking at ˜ 2000 m altitude and affecting downwind areas up to 14 km away. Both peak and 24 h average PM2.5 values near the fire were lower than for the 52 ha fire, but this may be because the monitoring locations were further away from the fire. Some lofted smoke spread north against the ground-level wind direction. Smoke from this fire collapsed to the ground during the night at different times in different locations. Although it is hard to attribute particle concentrations definitively to smoke, it seems that the collapsed plume affected a huge area including the towns of Wollongong, Bargo, Oakdale, Camden and Campbelltown (˜ 1200 km2). PM2.5 concentrations up to 169 µg m-3 were recorded on the morning following the fire. The atmospheric dispersion model

  9. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact: Four Regional Scenarios (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Tegen, S.

    2014-11-01

    NREL's Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model for Offshore Wind, is a computer tool for studying the economic impacts of fixed-bottom offshore wind projects in the United States. This presentation provides the results of an analysis of four offshore wind development scenarios in the Southeast Atlantic, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico regions.

  10. Impacts of Regional Electricity Prices and Building Type on the Economics of Commercial Photovoltaic Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Ong, S.; Campbell, C.; Clark, N.

    2012-12-01

    To identify the impacts of regional electricity prices and building type on the economics of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, 207 rate structures across 77 locations and 16 commercial building types were evaluated. Results for expected solar value are reported for each location and building type. Aggregated results are also reported, showing general trends across various impact categories.

  11. Impact of shale gas development on regional water quality.

    PubMed

    Vidic, R D; Brantley, S L; Vandenbossche, J M; Yoxtheimer, D; Abad, J D

    2013-05-17

    Unconventional natural gas resources offer an opportunity to access a relatively clean fossil fuel that could potentially lead to energy independence for some countries. Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing make the extraction of tightly bound natural gas from shale formations economically feasible. These technologies are not free from environmental risks, however, especially those related to regional water quality, such as gas migration, contaminant transport through induced and natural fractures, wastewater discharge, and accidental spills. We review the current understanding of environmental issues associated with unconventional gas extraction. Improved understanding of the fate and transport of contaminants of concern and increased long-term monitoring and data dissemination will help manage these water-quality risks today and in the future.

  12. Environmental and human impacts on Bangalore's regional water scarcity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Penny, G.; Srinivasan, V.; Thompson, S. E.

    2014-12-01

    The Arkavathy River Basin adjacent to Bangalore, India, faces a multitude of challenges driven by water demands from urbanization and intensification of agriculture. In the Arkavathy Basin, the two major reservoirs that historically supplied water to Bangalore now receive little to no inflow. Recent research has resulted in multiple plausible hypotheses attributing streamflow reductions in the Arkavathy to (1) increased evapotranspiration due to a boom in eucalyptus plantations and irrigated agriculture, and (2) increased deep drainage from surface soils due to long-term, excessive groundwater extraction. Current knowledge of Bangalore's water scarcity is largely based on anecdotal evidence and the sparse environmental data for this region is insufficient to definitively test these hypotheses. To bridge the gap between provincial and academic knowledge and better understand the nature of regional water resource depletion, we utilize a range of methods to integrate information across spatial and temporal scales. We use the full history of Landsat satellite imagery to approximate post-monsoon water storage in tanks and construct a spatially-explicit, historical record of surface water. We combine stable isotope mixing models, traditional field methods, and kite photography to build a deeper understanding of rainfall-runoff processes. Remote-sensing results confirm reductions of surface water in many of the tanks in the upper reaches of the watershed. We also observe an increase in surface water availability downstream of Bangalore, where imported water results in large waste flows. Field methods reveal considerable contributions of Hortonian overland flow due to soils with low hydraulic conductivity, mitigating changes in the subsurface water balance. We conclude that surface water availability is strongly related to spatial patterns of urban and agricultural water demand overlaid on a template defined by topography, soil, and climate.

  13. Impact of commuter-rail services in Toronto region

    SciTech Connect

    Wells, S.S.; Hutchinson, B.G.

    1996-07-01

    Ridership of the commuter-rail system that was implemented in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in 1967 increased at an annual, average compound rate of 11.4% until 1989. Demand has leveled substantially during 1990--94 and has averaged only 2.1% per year, which probably reflects the suburbanization of employment. Urban economic theory is used to explain the way in which central-business-district (CBD) employees respond differently to suburban commuter-rail services and rapid transit services, mainly serving the inner intermediate suburbs. Travel data collected in 1986 and 1991 confirmed the effects suggested by the theory. Commuter-rail passengers are drawn from the larger suburban households, living principally in single-family houses, and commuter-rail passengers are more sensitive to access and egress distances than subway passengers. Policies that improve the quality of access and egress components of commuting trips from the suburbs stimulate passenger demand. Also, land-use policies that promote high-density, residential development at suburban commuter-rail stations are unlikely to contribute significantly to commuter-rail demand, and the lakeshore commuter-rail line that has been in service since 1967 has not had a significant impact on residential sorting and on the generation of additional demands.

  14. Working memory training using mental calculation impacts regional gray matter of the frontal and parietal regions.

    PubMed

    Takeuchi, Hikaru; Taki, Yasuyuki; Sassa, Yuko; Hashizume, Hiroshi; Sekiguchi, Atsushi; Fukushima, Ai; Kawashima, Ryuta

    2011-01-01

    Training working memory (WM) improves performance on untrained cognitive tasks and alters functional activity. However, WM training's effects on gray matter morphology and a wide range of cognitive tasks are still unknown. We investigated this issue using voxel-based morphometry (VBM), various psychological measures, such as non-trained WM tasks and a creativity task, and intensive adaptive training of WM using mental calculations (IATWMMC), all of which are typical WM tasks. IATWMMC was associated with reduced regional gray matter volume in the bilateral fronto-parietal regions and the left superior temporal gyrus. It improved verbal letter span and complex arithmetic ability, but deteriorated creativity. These results confirm the training-induced plasticity in psychological mechanisms and the plasticity of gray matter structures in regions that have been assumed to be under strong genetic control.

  15. Working Memory Training Using Mental Calculation Impacts Regional Gray Matter of the Frontal and Parietal Regions

    PubMed Central

    Takeuchi, Hikaru; Taki, Yasuyuki; Sassa, Yuko; Hashizume, Hiroshi; Sekiguchi, Atsushi; Fukushima, Ai; Kawashima, Ryuta

    2011-01-01

    Training working memory (WM) improves performance on untrained cognitive tasks and alters functional activity. However, WM training's effects on gray matter morphology and a wide range of cognitive tasks are still unknown. We investigated this issue using voxel-based morphometry (VBM), various psychological measures, such as non-trained WM tasks and a creativity task, and intensive adaptive training of WM using mental calculations (IATWMMC), all of which are typical WM tasks. IATWMMC was associated with reduced regional gray matter volume in the bilateral fronto-parietal regions and the left superior temporal gyrus. It improved verbal letter span and complex arithmetic ability, but deteriorated creativity. These results confirm the training-induced plasticity in psychological mechanisms and the plasticity of gray matter structures in regions that have been assumed to be under strong genetic control. PMID:21886781

  16. Climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems in the multi-state region centered on Chicago

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    This paper describes the potential impacts of warming temperatures and changing precipitation on plants wildlife, invasive species, pests and agricultural ecosystems across the multistate region centered on Chicago, Illinois. We define the region broadly to include several hundred kilometers. We c...

  17. THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper assesses the potential impacts of climate change on the mid-Atlantic coastal (MAC) region of the United States. In order of increasing uncertainty, it is projected that sea level, temperature and streamflow will increase in the MAC region in response to higher levels o...

  18. Behavioral and Electrophysiological Evidence for the Impact of Regional Variation on Phoneme Perception

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brunelliere, Angele; Dufour, Sophie; Nguyen, Noel; Frauenfelder, Ulrich Hans

    2009-01-01

    This event-related potential (ERP) study examined the impact of phonological variation resulting from a vowel merger on phoneme perception. The perception of the /e/-/[epsilon]/ contrast which does not exist in Southern French-speaking regions, and which is in the process of merging in Northern French-speaking regions, was compared to the…

  19. Making an Economic Impact: Higher Education and the English Regions. Research Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelly, Ursula; McLellan, Donald; McNicoll, Iain

    2010-01-01

    This is the first published study of the impact of the higher education sector on the English regions. This study presents key economic features of UK higher education in the academic year 2007/08 and those aspects of its contribution to the nine English regions that can be readily measured. The sector is analysed as a conventional industry,…

  20. The Impact of Regional Higher Education Spaces on the Security of International Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Forbes-Mewett, Helen

    2016-01-01

    The security of international students in regional higher education spaces in Australia has been overlooked. Contingency theory provides the framework for this case study to explore the organisational structure and support services relevant to a regional higher education space and how this impacts the security of international students. In-depth…

  1. 76 FR 6153 - Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed Campo Regional Landfill Project on...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-02-03

    ... Impact Statement for the Proposed Campo Regional Landfill Project on the Campo Indian Reservation, San... the proposed Campo Regional Landfill Project (Proposed Action) to be located on the Campo Indian... Landfill Project (Proposed Action). There is no Federal action of amended lease and amended...

  2. Impacts of peatland forestation on regional climate conditions in Finland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Yao; Markkanen, Tiina; Backman, Leif; Henttonen, Helena M.; Pietikäinen, Joni-Pekka; Laaksonen, Ari

    2014-05-01

    Climate response to anthropogenic land cover change happens more locally and occurs on a shorter time scale than the global warming due to increased GHGs. Over the second half of last Century, peatlands were vastly drained in Finland to stimulate forest growth for timber production. In this study, we investigate the biophysical effects of peatland forestation on near-surface climate conditions in Finland. For this, the regional climate model REMO, developed in Max Plank Institute (currently in Climate Service Center, Germany), provides an effective way. Two sets of 15-year climate simulations were done by REMO, using the historic (1920s; The 1st Finnish National Forest Inventory) and present-day (2000s; the 10th Finnish National Forest Inventory) land cover maps, respectively. The simulated surface air temperature and precipitation were then analyzed. In the most intensive peatland forestation area in Finland, the differences in monthly averaged daily mean surface air temperature show a warming effect around 0.2 to 0.3 K in February and March and reach to 0.5 K in April, whereas a slight cooling effect, less than 0.2 K, is found from May till October. Consequently, the selected snow clearance dates in model gridboxes over that area are advanced 0.5 to 4 days in the mean of 15 years. The monthly averaged precipitation only shows small differences, less than 10 mm/month, in a varied pattern in Finland from April to September. Furthermore, a more detailed analysis was conducted on the peatland forestation area with a 23% decrease in peatland and a 15% increase in forest types. 11 day running means of simulated temperature and energy balance terms, as well as snow depth were averaged over 15 years. Results show a positive feedback induced by peatland forestation between the surface air temperature and snow depth in snow melting period. This is because the warmer temperature caused by lower surface albedo due to more forest in snow cover period leads to a quicker and

  3. Blastopathies and microcephaly in a Chornobyl impacted region of Ukraine

    PubMed Central

    Wertelecki, Wladimir; Yevtushok, Lyubov; Zymak-Zakutnia, Natalia; Wang, Bin; Sosyniuk, Zoriana; Lapchenko, Serhiy; Hobart, Holly H

    2014-01-01

    This population-based descriptive epidemiology study demonstrates that rates of conjoined twins, teratomas, neural tube defects, microcephaly, and microphthalmia in the Rivne province of Ukraine are among the highest in Europe. The province is 200 km distant from the Chornobyl site and its northern half, a region known as Polissia, is significantly polluted by ionizing radiation. The rates of neural tube defects, microcephaly and microphthalmia in Polissia are statistically significantly higher than in the rest of the province. A survey of at-birth head size showed that values were statistically smaller in males and females born in one Polissia county than among neonates born in the capital city. These observations provide clues for confirmatory and cause-effect prospective investigations. The strength of this study stems from a reliance on international standards prevalent in Europe and a decade-long population-based surveillance of congenital malformations in two distinct large populations. The limitations of this study, as those of other descriptive epidemiology investigations, is that identified cause-effect associations require further assessment by specific prospective investigations designed to address specific teratogenic factors. PMID:24666273

  4. [Impact of the Overlap Region Between Acoustic and Electric Stimulation].

    PubMed

    Baumann, Uwe; Mocka, Moritz

    2017-02-08

    Patients with residual hearing in the low frequencies and ski-slope hearing loss with partial deafness at medium and high frequencies receive a cochlear implant treatment with electric-acoustic stimulation (EAS, "hybrid" stimulation). In the border region between electric and acoustic stimulation a superposition of the 2 types of stimulation is expected. The area of overlap is determined by the insertion depth of the stimulating electrode and the lower starting point of signal transmission provided by the CI speech processor. The study examined the influence of the variation of the electric-acoustic overlap area on speech perception in noise, whereby the width of the "transmission gap" between the 2 different stimulus modalities was varied by 2 different methods. The results derived from 9 experienced users of the MED-EL Duet 2 speech processor show that the electric-acoustic overlapping area and with it the crossover frequency between the acoustic part and the CI should be adjusted individually. Overall, speech reception thresholds (SRT) showed a wide variation of results in between subjects. Further studies shall investigate whether generalized procedures about the setting of the overlap between electric and acoustic stimulation are reasonable, whereby an increased number of subjects and a longer period of acclimatization prior to the conduction of hearing tests deemed necessary.

  5. Estimating the economic and demographic impacts of solar technology commercialization on US regions

    SciTech Connect

    Kort, J.R.

    1980-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a framework through which these regional economic and demographic impacts of solar technology commercialization can be analyzed. Two models comprise the basis of this framework - a national input/output model and an interregional econometric model, the National-Regional Impact Evaluation System (NRIES). These models are used to convert projected sales of solar energy systems to gross output concepts, and to evaluate the impacts associated with these sales. Analysis is provided for the nine census regions and 50 states and the District of Columbia for the years 1980 through 1990. Impacts on major economic aggregates such as output, employment, income, and population are described. The methodology used in this study is described. The economic and demographic impacts of solar technology commercialization on US regions and states are presented. The major conclusions of the study are summarized, and direction is provided for further research. Detailed tables of regional and state solar energy expenditures and their impacts appear in the Appendix.

  6. Evaluation of the Impact of AIRS Radiance and Profile Data Assimilation in Partly Cloudy Regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zavodsky, Bradley; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Jedlovec, Gary

    2013-01-01

    Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Retrieved profiles from AIRS contain much of the information that is contained in the radiances and may be able to reveal reasons for this reduced impact. Assimilating AIRS retrieved profiles in an identical analysis configuration to the radiances, tracking the quantity and quality of the assimilated data in each technique, and examining analysis increments and forecast impact from each data type can yield clues as to the reasons for the reduced impact. By doing this with regional scale models individual synoptic features (and the impact of AIRS on these features) can be more easily tracked. This project examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing operational techniques used for AIRS radiances and research techniques used for AIRS retrieved profiles. Parallel versions of a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) are run to examine the impact AIRS radiances and retrieved profiles. Statistical evaluation of a long-term series of forecast runs will be compared along with preliminary results of in-depth investigations for select case comparing the analysis increments in partly cloudy regions and short-term forecast impacts.

  7. Impacts of seasonal and regional variability in biogenic VOC emissions on surface ozone in the Pearl River Delta region, China

    SciTech Connect

    Situ, S.; Guenther, Alex B.; Wang, X. J.; Jiang, X.; Turnipseed, A.; Wu, Z.; Bai, J.; Wang, X.

    2013-12-05

    In this study, the BVOC emissions in November 2010 over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in southern China have been estimated by the latest version of a Biogenic Volatile Organic Compound (BVOC) emission model (MEGAN v2.1). The evaluation of MEGAN performance at a representative forest site within this region indicates MEGAN can estimate BVOC emissions reasonably well in this region except overestimating isoprene emission in autumn for reasons that are discussed in this manuscript. Along with the output from MEGAN, the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used to estimate the impacts of BVOC emissions on surface ozone in the PRD region. The results show BVOC emissions increase the daytime ozone peak by *3 ppb on average, and the max hourly impacts of BVOC emissions on the daytime ozone peak is 24.8 ppb. Surface ozone mixing ratios in the central area of Guangzhou- Foshan and the western Jiangmen are most sensitive to BVOC emissions BVOCs from outside and central PRD influence the central area of Guangzhou-Foshan and the western Jiangmen significantly while BVOCs from rural PRD mainly influence the western Jiangmen. The impacts of BVOC emissions on surface ozone differ in different PRD cities, and the impact varies in different seasons. Foshan and Jiangmen being most affected in autumn, result in 6.0 ppb and 5.5 ppb increases in surface ozone concentrations, while Guangzhou and Huizhou become more affected in summer. Three additional experiments concerning the sensitivity of surface ozone to MEGAN input variables show that surface ozone is more sensitive to landcover change, followed by emission factors and meteorology.

  8. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Tegen, S.; Keyser, D.; Flores-Espino, F.; Miles, J.; Zammit, D.; Loomis, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Researchers worked with developers and industry representatives in each region to create potential offshore wind deployment and supply chain growth scenarios, specific to their locations. These scenarios were used as inputs into the offshore JEDI model to estimate jobs and other gross economic impacts in each region.

  9. Impacts of Climate Policy on Regional Air Quality, Health, and Air Quality Regulatory Procedures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, T. M.; Selin, N. E.

    2011-12-01

    Both the changing climate, and the policy implemented to address climate change can impact regional air quality. We evaluate the impacts of potential selected climate policies on modeled regional air quality with respect to national pollution standards, human health and the sensitivity of health uncertainty ranges. To assess changes in air quality due to climate policy, we couple output from a regional computable general equilibrium economic model (the US Regional Energy Policy [USREP] model), with a regional air quality model (the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions [CAMx]). USREP uses economic variables to determine how potential future U.S. climate policy would change emissions of regional pollutants (CO, VOC, NOx, SO2, NH3, black carbon, and organic carbon) from ten emissions-heavy sectors of the economy (electricity, coal, gas, crude oil, refined oil, energy intensive industry, other industry, service, agriculture, and transportation [light duty and heavy duty]). Changes in emissions are then modeled using CAMx to determine the impact on air quality in several cities in the Northeast US. We first calculate the impact of climate policy by using regulatory procedures used to show attainment with National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone and particulate matter. Building on previous work, we compare those results with the calculated results and uncertainties associated with human health impacts due to climate policy. This work addresses a potential disconnect between NAAQS regulatory procedures and the cost/benefit analysis required for and by the Clean Air Act.

  10. Atmospheric Impact of Large Methane Emission in the Arctic Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattacharyya, S.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Bergmann, D.; Reagan, M. T.; Collins, W.; Elliott, S. M.; Maltrud, M. E.

    2011-12-01

    A highly potent greenhouse gas, methane, is locked in the solid phase as ice-like deposits containing a mixture of water and gas (mostly methane) called clathrates, in ocean sediments and underneath permafrost regions. Clathrates are stable under high pressure and low temperatures. Recent estimates suggest that about 1600 - 2000GtC of clathrates are present in oceans and 400GtC in Arctic permafrost (Archer et al.2009) which is about 4000 times that of current annual emissions. In a warming climate, increase in ocean temperatures could alter the geothermal gradient, which in turn could lead to dissociation of the clathrates and release of methane into the ocean and subsequently into the atmosphere as well. This could be of particular importance in the shallow part of the Arctic Ocean where the clathrates are found in depths of only 300m. In this presentation, we shall show results from our ongoing simulation of a scenario of large scale methane outgassing from clathrate dissociation due to warming ocean temperatures in the Arctic based on ocean sediment modeling. To that end we use the CESM (Community Earth System Model) version 1 with fully active coupled atmosphere-ocean-land model together with fast atmospheric chemistry module to simulate the response to increasing methane emissions in the Barents Sea, Canadian Archipelago and the Sea of Okhotsk. The simulation shows the effect these methane emissions could have on global surface methane, surface ozone, surface air temperature and other related indices. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS-491764

  11. The "APEC Blue" Phenomenon: Impacts of Regional emission control Meteorology Condition and Regional Transport from a Modeling Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, M.; Carmichael, G. R.; Liu, Z.; Ji, D.; Saide, P. E.; Wang, Y.; Xin, J.

    2015-12-01

    On November 5-11, China hosted the 2014 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders' Week in Beijing. To ensure good air quality during the APEC week, a series of strict emission control measures were taken in Beijing and surrounding provinces, which provide us with a great opportunity to examine the effectiveness of regional emission control. As important as emissions, meteorology can also significantly affect air quality in Beijing, so it's meaningful to understand the impact of meteorology conditions in the APEC week. Besides, it's important to study the impact of regional transport as its contribution to Beijing pollution levels is controversial. In this study, we investigate the impacts of emission control, meteorology and regional transport on the air quality during APEC week using a fully online coupled meteorology-chemistry model WRF-Chem. Compared to surface observations, the model has very good performance. The conclusions from this study will provide useful insights for government to control aerosol pollution in Beijing.

  12. Modeling the Impacts of Global Climate and Regional Land Use Change on Regional Climate, Air Quality and Public Health in the New York Metropolitan Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenthal, J. E.; Knowlton, K. M.; Kinney, P. L.

    2002-12-01

    There is an imminent need to downscale the global climate models used by international consortiums like the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to predict the future regional impacts of climate change. To meet this need, a "place-based" climate model that makes specific regional projections about future environmental conditions local inhabitants could face is being created by the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, in collaboration with other researchers and universities, for New York City and the 31 surrounding counties. This presentation describes the design and initial results of this modeling study, aimed at simulating the effects of global climate change and regional land use change on climate and air quality over the northeastern United States in order to project the associated public health impacts in the region. Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone and fine particles are significant current public health stressors in the New York metropolitan area. The New York Climate and Health Project is linking human dimension and natural sciences models to assess the potential for future public health impacts from heat stress and air quality, and yield improved tools for assessing climate change impacts. The model will be applied to the NY metropolitan east coast region. The following questions will be addressed: 1. What changes in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events are likely to occur over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and land cover (LU/LC) and climate change in the region? 2. How might the frequency and severity of episodic concentrations of ozone (O3) and airborne particulate matter smaller than 2.5 æm in diameter (PM2.5) change over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and climate change in the metropolitan region? 3. What is the range of possible human health impacts of these changes in the region? 4. How might projected future human

  13. Current and potential ant impacts in the Pacific region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Loope, Lloyd L.; Krushelnycky, Paul D.

    2007-01-01

    . They generally have multiple queens per colony, are unicolonial (lacking internest aggression), quickly recruit to food items, thrive in a variety of habitats including disturbed areas, and can be highly aggressive to other ant species (McGlynn 1999). Hawaii’s arthropod fauna evolved in the absence of ants and has been observed by many biologists to be highly vulnerable to displacement by non-native ants. Pacific island biotas have also very likely suffered greatly from displacement by ants. However, in contrast to Hawaii, virtually nothing has been published on effects of non-native ants on native arthropod fauna elsewhere on Pacific islands, with the exception of the Galapagos archipelago, which may have at least four species of endemic ants (Lubin 1984, Nishida and Evenhuis 2000) and New Caledonia (Jourdan et al. 2001, Le Breton et al. 2005). In addition, many ant species in the Pacific have long been a nuisance for humans, and significant agricultural impacts have occurred from ants tending hemipteran insects of crop plants.

  14. The ionospheric impact on GPS performance in southern polar region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hong, C.-K.; Grejner-Brzezinska, D. A.; Arslan, N.; Willis, M.; Hothem, L.

    2006-01-01

    The primary objective of this paper is to present the results of the study of the effects of varying ionospheric conditions on the GPS signal tracking in the southern polar region. In the first stage of this study, the data collected by the OSU/USGS team in October-November 2003 within the TAMDEF (Transantarctic Mountains Deformation) network were used together with some IGS Antarctic stations to study the effect of severe ionospheric storms on GPS hardware. Note that TAMDEF is a joint USGS/OSU project with the primary objective of measuring crustal motion in the Transantarctic Mountains of Southern Victoria Land using GPS techniques. This study included ten Antarctic stations equipped with different dual-frequency GPS hardware, and the data were evaluated for two 24-hour periods of severe ionospheric storm (2003/10/29) and moderate ionospheric conditions (minor storm of 2003/11/11). The results of this study were presented at the LAG Assembly in Cairns, Australia (Grejner-Brzezinska et al., 2005). Additional tests, in a more controlled environment, were carried out at the US Antarctic station, McMurdo, between January 10 and February 6, 2006, under varying ionospheric conditions, where several different types of receivers were connected to the same antenna located on the rooftop of the Crary Laboratory (the primary test site). In this scenario, each antenna was subject to identical ionospheric effects during each day of the test, and no spatial decorrelation effects were present, as seen in the previous study, due to the spatial separation of the receivers tested. It should be noted, however, that no moderate or severe ionospheric storms occurred during the experiment, so, unfortunately, this type of conditions was not tested here. The test was repeated with different receivers connected to different antenna types; a total of four 5-day sessions were carried out. The following receiver types were used at the primary site: Trimble 5700, Ashtech Z-Surveyor, JNS Euro

  15. Development and application of methods for regional scaling and normalization in life-cycle impact assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Tolle, D.A.

    1995-12-31

    Life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is a technical, quantitative and/or qualitative method to classify, characterize, and valuate potential impacts on human health, ecosystems, and natural resources, based on the environmental burdens identified in a life-cycle inventory. Research described here for two LCIAs included development and application of regional scaling methods for the following 5 of 14 relevant impact categories: Suspended (PM{sub 10}) particulate effects, water use, acid deposition, smog creation, and eutrophication. Normalization is recommended after characterization, because aggregated sums per impact category need to be expressed in equivalent terms before assigning valuation weight factors. The normalization approach described here involves determination of factors that represent the total, geographically-relevant impact for a given impact category. The goal for the 14 normalization factors developed and applied to two LCIAS, was to make them scientifically defensible, while utilizing existing data on emission or resource extraction quantities for three spatial perspectives. Data on the total environmental burden for each inventory item under a given impact category were obtained for normalization factors. Since the boundaries of the two LCIAs were primarily in the US, the data for the regional or local impact category perspectives were restricted to appropriate areas in the US. Normalization factors were developed and applied in the two LCIAs for 11 impact categories involving chemical emissions, water use, solid waste volume, and resource extraction/production land use.

  16. North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP): Producing Regional Climate Change Projections for Climate Impacts Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arritt, R. W.; Mearns, L.; Anderson, C.; Bader, D.; Buonomo, E.; Caya, D.; Duffy, P.; Elguindi, N.; Giorgi, F.; Gutowski, W.; Held, I.; Nunes, A.; Jones, R.; Laprise, R.; Leung, L. R.; Middleton, D.; Moufouma-Okia, W.; Nychka, D.; Qian, Y.; Roads, J.; Sain, S.; Snyder, M.; Sloan, L.; Takle, E.

    2006-12-01

    The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) is constructing projections of regional climate change over the coterminous United States and Canada in order to provide climate change information at decision relevant scales. A major goal of NARCCAP is to estimate uncertainties in regional scale projections of future climate by using multiple regional climate models (RCMs) nested within multiple atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). NARCCAP is using six nested regional climate models at 50 km resolution to dynamically downscale realizations of current climate (1971-2000) and future climate (2041-2070, following the A2 SRES emission scenario) from four AOGCMs. Global time slice simulations, also at 50 km resolution, will be performed using the GFDL AM2.1 and NCAR CAM3 atmospheric models forced by the AOGCM sea surface temperatures and will be compared with results of the regional models. Results from this multiple-RCM, multiple-AOGCM suite will be statistically analyzed to investigate the cascade of uncertainty as one type of model draws information from another. All output will be made available to the climate analysis and climate impacts assessment communities through an archiving and data distribution plan. The climate impacts community will have these data at unprecedented spatial and temporal (hourly to six-hourly) resolution to support decision-relevant evaluations for public policy. As part of our evaluation of uncertainties, simulations are presently being concluded that nest the participating RCMs within reanalyses of observations. These simulations can be viewed as nesting the RCMs within a GCM that is nearly perfect (constrained by available observations), allowing us to separate errors attributable to the RCMs from those attributable to the driving AOGCMs. Results to date indicate that skill is greater in winter than in summer, and greater for temperature than for precipitation. Temperature and precipitation errors

  17. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Kucharski, Fred; Azharuddin, Syed

    2017-03-01

    ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (`SPEEDY'). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air-sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant impact

  18. Valuation of ecological impacts - a regional approach using the ecological footprint concept

    SciTech Connect

    Knaus, Michael . E-mail: knaus@umwelt-campus.de; Loehr, Dirk . E-mail: loehr@umwelt-campus.de; O'Regan, Bernadette . E-mail: bernadette.oregan@ul.ie

    2006-03-15

    All economic activities impact on the environment but not all environmental impacts are assigned values and taken into consideration in development budgets. At project level, the environmental consequences of proposed economic activities have to be evaluated by conducting an environmental impact assessment. Threshold levels in physical terms are outlined in corresponding laws and regulations. Projects fulfilling the necessary environmental assessment requirements (threshold levels) tend to be permitted without predicting the expected environmental impacts in monetary terms. The economic valuation of environmental impacts tends to be affected by uncertainties. The following example of indirect monetary valuation of environmental impacts uses the Ecological Footprint (EF) concept to calculate the total land use of projects. According to the strong sustainability concept it is assumed that every additional direct or indirect utilisation of land caused by a project requires corresponding offset areas. The offset areas required by different project alternatives are valued with relevant regional guide land values.

  19. Martian Impact Craters Modified by Post-impact Processes in the Greater Hellas Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raitala, J.; Kostama, V.-P.; Aittola, M.; Lahtela, H.

    2003-04-01

    The appearance of the impact craters on the Martian surface depends on numerous factors beginning from the size, mass, velocity, type, and impact angle of the approaching projectile [1]. These all have affected on the impact energy delivered into the surface. The bedrock properties have then resulted in additional effects. Besides some major phenomena (Pre-existing faults and fractures, permafrost-saturated layers) there may have been numerous more delicate variations due to local projectile-bedrock combinations. Various post-impact deformation processes may then have changed the appearance of an impact crater to the extent that it is difficult to identify any original crater characteristics in great details. The changes in the crater appearances can, however, be looked in a positive way to provide crucial information on the local surface geology, bedrock properties and, more generally, on the whole post-impact geological evolution of the area studied [2,3,4]. We have characterized and studied the various crater deformation types found from within the large Hellas area. As it is one of the possible previous water body areas on Mars and lies also close to the southern permafrost and the south-pole environment, many craters locating within the greater Hellas Basin area have undergone substantial fluvial processes. Still, many of their surviving geologic features are enough well preserved. The good state of preservation is due partly to the relative youth of the craters and/or partly to Martian relative dryness. The absence of permanent water cover limits the weathering of surface materials, while it optimizes the site's exposure for geologic surveys by remote-sensing. This allows to estimate that the effects related to permafrost, water, erosion and sedimentation have been far more important within the greater Hellas area than what was earlier assumed using the previous data sets which have had defects either in resolution or in areal coverage. The still

  20. Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Southeast Region (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    2013-07-01

    Offshore wind is a clean, renewable source of energy and can be an economic driver in the United States. To better understand the employment opportunities and other potential regional economic impacts from offshore wind development, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded research that focuses on four regions of the country. The studies use multiple scenarios with various local job and domestic manufacturing content assumptions. Each regional study uses the new offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This fact sheet summarizes the potential economic impacts identified by the study for the Southeast (defined here as Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia).

  1. Evaluation of GCMs in the context of regional predictive climate impact studies.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kokorev, Vasily; Anisimov, Oleg

    2016-04-01

    Significant improvements in the structure, complexity, and general performance of earth system models (ESMs) have been made in the recent decade. Despite these efforts, the range of uncertainty in predicting regional climate impacts remains large. The problem is two-fold. Firstly, there is an intrinsic conflict between the local and regional scales of climate impacts and adaptation strategies, on one hand, and larger scales, at which ESMs demonstrate better performance, on the other. Secondly, there is a growing understanding that majority of the impacts involve thresholds, and are thus driven by extreme climate events, whereas accent in climate projections is conventionally made on gradual changes in means. In this study we assess the uncertainty in projecting extreme climatic events within a region-specific and process-oriented context by examining the skills and ranking of ESMs. We developed a synthetic regionalization of Northern Eurasia that accounts for the spatial features of modern climatic changes and major environmental and socio-economical impacts. Elements of such fragmentation could be considered as natural focus regions that bridge the gap between the spatial scales adopted in climate-impacts studies and patterns of climate change simulated by ESMs. In each focus region we selected several target meteorological variables that govern the key regional impacts, and examined the ability of the models to replicate their seasonal and annual means and trends by testing them against observations. We performed a similar evaluation with regard to extremes and statistics of the target variables. And lastly, we used the results of these analyses to select sets of models that demonstrate the best performance at selected focus regions with regard to selected sets of target meteorological parameters. Ultimately, we ranked the models according to their skills, identified top-end models that "better than average" reproduce the behavior of climatic parameters, and

  2. Air quality resolution for health impact assessment: influence of regional characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, T. M.; Saari, R. K.; Selin, N. E.

    2014-01-01

    We evaluate how regional characteristics of population and background pollution might impact the selection of optimal air quality model resolution when calculating the human health impacts of changes to air quality. Using an approach consistent with air quality policy evaluation, we use a regional chemical transport model (CAMx) and a health benefit mapping program (BenMAP) to calculate the human health impacts associated with changes in ozone and fine particulate matter resulting from an emission reduction scenario. We evaluate this same scenario at 36, 12 and 4 km resolution for nine regions in the eastern US representing varied characteristics. We find that the human health benefits associated with changes in ozone concentrations are sensitive to resolution. This finding is especially strong in urban areas where we estimate that benefits calculated using coarse resolution results are on average two times greater than benefits calculated using finer scale results. In three urban areas we analyzed, results calculated using 36 km resolution modeling fell outside the uncertainty range of results calculated using finer scale modeling. In rural areas the influence of resolution is less pronounced with only an 8% increase in the estimated health impacts when using 36 km resolution over finer scales. In contrast, health benefits associated with changes in PM2.5 concentrations were not sensitive to resolution and did not follow a pattern based on any regional characteristics evaluated. The largest difference between the health impacts estimated using 36 km modeling results and either 12 or 4 km results was at most ±10% in any region. Several regions showed increases in estimated benefits as resolution increased (opposite the impact seen with ozone modeling), while some regions showed decreases in estimated benefits as resolution increased. In both cases, the dominant contribution was from secondary PM. Additionally, we found that the health impacts calculated using

  3. Correlation of lunar far-side magnetized regions with ringed impact basins

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, K.A.; Wilhelms, D.E.

    1979-01-01

    By the method of electron reflection, we have identified seven well-defined magnetized regions in the equatorial belt of the lunar far side sampled by the Apollo 16 Particles and Fields subsatellite. Most of these surface magnetic fields lie within one basin radius from the rim of a ringed impact basin, where thick deposits of basin ejecta are observed or inferred. The strongest of the seven magnetic features is linear, at least 250 km long, and radial to the Freundlich-Sharonov basin. The apparent correlation with basin ejecta suggests some form of impact origin for the observed permanently magnetized regions. ?? 1979.

  4. Regional energy economics: the impact of the price increases of the 1970s

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1982-01-01

    A drop in real gross national product, a higher share of energy cost in the Consumer Price Index, and employment losses reflect the negative impacts from oil price increases since 1973. State price variations depend on distance from energy sources, types of fuels used, and state and local taxes and rate structures. This review of energy price impacts emphasizes the relationship between the price increases and national economic performance. The data also cover regional economies, urban/rural price differences, and impacts on low-income groups. 26 references, 46 figures, 25 tables. (DCK)

  5. Air quality resolution for health impacts assessment: influence of regional characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, T. M.; Saari, R. K.; Selin, N. E.

    2013-05-01

    We evaluate how regional characteristics of weather, population, and background pollution might impact the selection of optimal model resolution when calculating the human health impacts of changes to air quality. Using an approach consistent with air quality policy evaluation, we use a regional chemical transport model (CAMx) and a health benefits mapping program (BenMAP) to calculate the human health impacts associated with changes in ozone and fine particulate matter resulting from an emissions reduction scenario. We evaluate this same scenario at 36, 12 and 4 km resolution for nine regions in the Eastern US representing varied characteristics. We find that the human health benefits associated with changes in ozone concentrations are sensitive to resolution, especially in urban areas where we estimate that benefits calculated using coarse resolution results are on average two times greater than benefits calculated using finer scale results. In three urban areas we analyzed, results calculated using 36 km resolution modeling fell outside the uncertainty range of results calculated using finer scale modeling. In rural areas the influence of resolution is less pronounced with only an 8% increase in the estimated health impacts when using 36 km resolution over finer scales. In contrast, health benefits associated with changes in PM2.5 concentrations were not sensitive to resolution and did not follow a pattern based on any regional characteristics evaluated. The largest difference between the health impacts estimated using 36 km modeling results and either 12 or 4 km results was at most ±10% in any region. Several regions showed increases in estimated benefits as resolution increased (opposite the impact seen with ozone modeling) due to a higher contribution of primary PM in those regions, while some regions showed decreases in estimated benefits as resolution increased due to a higher contribution of secondary PM. Given that changes in PM2.5 dominate the human

  6. Quantifying some of the impacts of dust and other aerosol on the Caspian Sea region using a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elguindi, N.; Solmon, F.; Turuncoglu, U.

    2016-01-01

    The Central Asian deserts are a major dust source region that can potentially have a substantial impact on the Caspian Sea. Despite major advances in the modeling and prediction of the Caspian Sea Level (CSL) during recent years, no study to date has investigated the climatic effects of dust on the hydrological budget of the Sea. In this study, we utilize a regional climate model coupled to an interactive emission and transport scheme to simulate the effects of dust and other aerosol in the Caspian region. First, we present a validation of the model using a variety of AOD satellite observations as well as a climatology of dust storms. Compared to the range of satellite estimates, the model's AOD climatology is closer to the lower end of the observations, and exhibit a significant underestimation over the clay deserts found on the Ustyurt plateau and north of the Aral Sea. Nevertheless, we find encouraging results in that the model is able to reproduce the gradient of increasing AOD intensity from the middle to the southern part of the Sea. Spatially, the model reproduces reasonably well the observed climatological dust storm frequency maps which show that the most intense dust source regions to be found in the Karakum desert in Turkmenistan and Kyzylkum desert in Uzbekistan east of the Aral Sea. In the second part of this study we explore some impacts of dust and other aerosol on the climatology of the region and on the energy budget of the Sea. We find that the overall direct radiative effects of dust and other aerosol reduce the amount of shortwave radiation reaching the surface, dampen boundary layer turbulence and inhibit convection over the region. We also show that by including dust and aerosol in our simulation, we are able to reduce the positive biases in sea surface temperatures by 1-2 °C. Evaporation is also considerably reduced, resulting in an average difference of approximately 10 mm year^{-1} in the Sea's hydrological budget which is substantial

  7. Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andy J.; Knutti, Reto; Wilby, Robert L.

    2016-01-01

    Global temperature targets, such as the widely accepted limit of an increase above pre-industrial temperatures of two degrees Celsius, may fail to communicate the urgency of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The translation of CO2 emissions into regional- and impact-related climate targets could be more powerful because such targets are more directly aligned with individual national interests. We illustrate this approach using regional changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation. These scale robustly with global temperature across scenarios, and thus with cumulative CO2 emissions. This is particularly relevant for changes in regional extreme temperatures on land, which are much greater than changes in the associated global mean.

  8. Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets.

    PubMed

    Seneviratne, Sonia I; Donat, Markus G; Pitman, Andy J; Knutti, Reto; Wilby, Robert L

    2016-01-28

    Global temperature targets, such as the widely accepted limit of an increase above pre-industrial temperatures of two degrees Celsius, may fail to communicate the urgency of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The translation of CO2 emissions into regional- and impact-related climate targets could be more powerful because such targets are more directly aligned with individual national interests. We illustrate this approach using regional changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation. These scale robustly with global temperature across scenarios, and thus with cumulative CO2 emissions. This is particularly relevant for changes in regional extreme temperatures on land, which are much greater than changes in the associated global mean.

  9. Impact-related Events on Active Tectonic Regions Defined by Its Age, Shocked Minerals and Compositions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miura, Y.; Hirota, A.; Gorton, M.; Kedves, M.

    2002-03-01

    New type of impact-related event is defined at active tectonic region by using semi-circular structure, bulk XRF compositions with mixed data, shocked quartz grains with the PDFs texture, and Fe-Ni content. Example is discussed in Takamatsu MKT crater in Japan.

  10. The Charon-forming giant impact as a source of Pluto's dark equatorial regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sekine, Yasuhito; Genda, Hidenori; Kamata, Shunichi; Funatsu, Taro

    2017-01-01

    Pluto exhibits complex regional diversity in its surface materials 1,2 . One of the most striking features is the dark reddish material, possibly organic matter, along Pluto's equator coexisting with the H2O-rich crust 2 . Little is known, however, about the surface process responsible for the dark equatorial regions. Here, we propose that Pluto's dark regions were formed through reactions in elongated pools of liquid water near the equator, generated by the giant impact that formed Charon 3-5 . Our laboratory experiments show that dark reddish organic matter, comparable to Pluto's dark materials, is produced through polymerization of simple organic compounds 6,7 that would have been present in proto-Pluto (for example, formaldehyde) by prolonged heating at temperatures ≥50 °C. Through hydrodynamic impact simulations, we demonstrate that an impactor, one-third the mass of Pluto, colliding with proto-Pluto—with an interior potential temperature of 150-200 K—could have generated both a Charon-sized satellite and high-temperature regions around Pluto's equator. We also propose that high-velocity giant impacts result in global or hemispherical darkening and reddening, suggesting that the colour variety of large Kuiper belt objects 8-12 could have been caused by frequent, stochastic giant impacts in a massive outer protoplanetary disk in the early Solar System 13-16 .

  11. Beta-Deacy Spectroscopy in the 100Sn Region:. Impact on Rp-Process Calculations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lorusso, G.; Becerril, A.; Amthor, A.; Baumann, T.; Bazin, D.; Berryman, J. S.; Brown, B. A.; Cyburt, R. H.; Crawford, H. L.; Estrade, A.; Gade, A.; Ginter, T.; Hausmann, C. M.; Mantica, P. F.; Matos, M.; Meharchand, R.; Minamisono, K.; Montes, F.; Perdikakis, G.; Pereira, J.; Portillo, M.; Schatz, H.; Smith, K.; Stoker, J.; Stolz, A.; Zegers, R. G. T.; Guess, C. J.; Hitt, G. W.

    2013-06-01

    -decay in the neighborhood of 100Sn was studied at the National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory (NSCL). The new half-lives of 96,97Cd, along with several new -delayed proton emission branching ratio for nuclei in this region have an impact on the composition of type-I X-ray burst ashes predicted by network calculations.

  12. EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY OF REGIONAL AIR QUALITY OVER THE UNITED STATES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The United States has established a series of standards for criteria and other air pollutants to safeguard air quality to protect human health and the environment. The Climate Impact on Regional Air Quality (CIRAQ) project, a collaborative research effort involving multiple Fede...

  13. Regional disaster impact analysis: comparing input-output and computable general equilibrium models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koks, Elco E.; Carrera, Lorenzo; Jonkeren, Olaf; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Husby, Trond G.; Thissen, Mark; Standardi, Gabriele; Mysiak, Jaroslav

    2016-08-01

    A variety of models have been applied to assess the economic losses of disasters, of which the most common ones are input-output (IO) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. In addition, an increasing number of scholars have developed hybrid approaches: one that combines both or either of them in combination with noneconomic methods. While both IO and CGE models are widely used, they are mainly compared on theoretical grounds. Few studies have compared disaster impacts of different model types in a systematic way and for the same geographical area, using similar input data. Such a comparison is valuable from both a scientific and policy perspective as the magnitude and the spatial distribution of the estimated losses are born likely to vary with the chosen modelling approach (IO, CGE, or hybrid). Hence, regional disaster impact loss estimates resulting from a range of models facilitate better decisions and policy making. Therefore, this study analyses the economic consequences for a specific case study, using three regional disaster impact models: two hybrid IO models and a CGE model. The case study concerns two flood scenarios in the Po River basin in Italy. Modelling results indicate that the difference in estimated total (national) economic losses and the regional distribution of those losses may vary by up to a factor of 7 between the three models, depending on the type of recovery path. Total economic impact, comprising all Italian regions, is negative in all models though.

  14. IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON UV EXPOSURE IN COASTAL SHELF REGIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Global change has a variety of impact on UV exposure in coastal shelf regions of the southeastern United States. Changes in solar UV reaching the water surface have been caused by human alterations of atmospheric composition such as depletion of the ozone layer.

  15. Webinar Presentation: Linking Regional Aerosol Emission Changes with Multiple Impact Measures through Direct and Cloud-Related Forcing Estimates

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This presentation, Linking Regional Aerosol Emission Changes with Multiple Impact Measures through Direct and Cloud-Related Forcing Estimates, was given at the STAR Black Carbon 2016 Webinar Series: Accounting for Impact, Emissions, and Uncertainty.

  16. Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mondal, A.; Mujumdar, P. P.

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

  17. Integrated regional assessment of global climatic change: lessons from the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohen, Stewart J.

    1996-04-01

    This paper outlines the potential role integrated regional assessments of global climatic change scenarios could play in building better links between science and related policy concerns. The concept is illustrated through description of an ongoing case study from Canada—the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS). As part of the Government of Canada's Green Plan, the Global Warming Science Program includes a study of regional impacts of global warming scenarios in the Mackenzie Basin, located in northwestern Canada. The MBIS is a six-year program focussing on potential climate-induced changes in the land and water resource base, and the implications of four scenarios of global climatic change on land use and economic policies in this region. These policy issues include interjurisdictional water management, sustainability of native lifestyles, economic development opportunities (agriculture, forestry, tourism, etc.), sustainability of ecosystems and infrastructure maintenance. MBIS is due to be completed in 1997. MBIS represents an attempt to address regional impacts by incorporating a "family of integrators" into the study framework, and by directly involving stakeholders in planning and research activities. The experience in organizing and carrying out this project may provide some lessons for others interested in organizing regional or country studies.

  18. Regional disaster impact analysis: comparing Input-Output and Computable General Equilibrium models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koks, E. E.; Carrera, L.; Jonkeren, O.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Husby, T. G.; Thissen, M.; Standardi, G.; Mysiak, J.

    2015-11-01

    A large variety of models has been developed to assess the economic losses of disasters, of which the most common ones are Input-Output (IO) and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. In addition, an increasing numbers of scholars has developed hybrid approaches; one that combines both or either of them in combination with non-economic methods. While both IO and CGE models are widely used, they are mainly compared on theoretical grounds. Few studies have compared disaster impacts of different model types in a systematic way and for the same geographical area, using similar input data. Such a comparison is valuable from both a scientific and policy perspective as the magnitude and the spatial distribution of the estimated losses are likely to vary with the chosen modelling approach (IO, CGE, or hybrid). Hence, regional disaster impact loss estimates resulting from a range of models facilitates better decisions and policy making. Therefore, in this study we analyze one specific case study, using three regional models: two hybrid IO models and a regionally calibrated version of a global CGE model. The case study concerns two flood scenarios in the Po-river basin in Italy. Modelling results indicate that the difference in estimated total (national) economic losses and the regional distribution of those losses may vary by up to a factor of seven between the three models, depending on the type of recovery path. Total economic impact, comprising all Italian regions, is negative in all models though.

  19. Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Regional Climate Impact over Middle East and North Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bangalth, H. K.; Stenchikov, G.; Zampieri, M.; Bantges, R.; Brindley, H.

    2012-04-01

    Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is a unique region due in part to the abundance of atmospheric aerosols and their significant contribution to the energy balance of the region. Mineral dust plays a leading role in this process. In this study we evaluate the radiative forcing of dust aerosols in the MENA region and their impact on the regional circulation and temperature distribution using a global high-resolution atmospheric model HIRAM developed at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. We found that dust aerosols reduce downward radiative fluxes at surface up to 30 W/m2 and warm by about this amount the lower five-km-deep atmospheric layer. To better quantify radiative impact of aerosols we have employed the available aerosol satellite observations that primarily provide column integral aerosol optical depth (AOD), as a measure of aerosol burden. Climatology of AOD from different satellites (MODIS, MISR, SEVIRI and CALIPSO) over MENA and their inter comparison is made to have a comprehension of the discrepancies and agreement between them. Though the observed AODs vary among the different instruments spatially and temporally, the difference falls within a factor of less than two. We implement these observed aerosols in HIRAM. The radiative forcing corresponding to the satellite aerosol observation and the sensitivity of regional climate to this forcing are analyzed. The analysis shows that the differential heating in the vertical and the corresponding response of the vertical temperature profile have a profound impact on the tropospheric dynamics and the structure of the boundary layer.

  20. Economic and environmental impacts of water quality protection policies: 1. Framework for regional analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernardo, D. J.; Mapp, H. P.; Sabbagh, G. J.; Geleta, S.; Watkins, K. B.; Elliott, R. L.; Stone, J. F.

    1993-09-01

    Agricultural production systems provide some unique challenges for assessing the regional impacts of water quality protection policies. A modeling framework is proposed for assessing the environmental and economic consequences of groundwater quality protection policies at the regional level. The model consists of three components: (1) a crop simulation/chemical transport model, (2) a regional economic optimization model, and (3) an aquifer groundwater flow model. The three submodels are linked and run recursively to simulate producer response to alternative water quality policies over a multiple-year time horizon. Model solutions provide projections of production practices employed on various resource situations across the region. Economic evaluation of alternative policies may be based upon regional agricultural income, crop production levels, input use, and changes in aquifer water levels over time. Measures of agricultural nonpoint source pollution provided by the model include nitrate, phosphorus and pesticide loadings in deep percolation and runoff water, as well as sediment losses.

  1. A Generalized Assessment of the Impact of Regionalization and Provider Learning on Patient Outcomes.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yun; Lee, Shoou-Yih D; Gilleskie, Donna B; Sun, Yepeng; Padakandla, Arun; Jacobs, Bruce L; Montgomery, Jeffery S; Montie, James E; Wei, John T; Hollenbeck, Brent K

    2016-11-01

    We present a generalized model to assess the impact of regionalization on patient care outcomes in the presence of heterogeneity in provider learning. The model characterizes best regionalization policies as optimal allocations of patients across providers with heterogeneous learning abilities. We explore issues that arise when solving for best regionalization, which depends on statistically estimated provider learning curves. We explain how to maintain the problem's tractability and reformulate it into a binary integer program problem to improve solvability. Using our model, best regionalization solutions can be computed within reasonable time using current-day computers. We apply the model to minimally invasive radical prostatectomy and estimate that, in comparison to current care delivery, within-state regionalization can shorten length of stay by at least 40.8%.

  2. Major Impact of Fleet Renewal Over Airports Located in the Most Important Region of Brazil

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maters, Rafael Waltz; deRoodeTorres, Roberta; Santo, Respicio A. Espirito, Jr.

    2003-01-01

    The present article discusses and analyses the major impacts of the Brazilian carriers fleet renewal regarding Brazilian airport infrastructure in the most important region of the country, the Southeast (SE). A brief historical overview of the country's airline fleet will be presented, demonstrating the need for its renewal (m fact, Brazilian carriers started a major fleet renewal program m the last five years), while analyzing the periods in which a new breed of aircraft was put into service by the major carriers operating in the SE region. The trend of operating the classic regional jets plus the forthcoming entry into service of the "large regional jets" (LRJ, 70-115 seaters) in several point-to-point routes are presented along with the country's carriers" reality of operating these former aircraft in several high-capacity and medium-range routes. The article will focus on the ability of four of the major Southeast's airports to cope with the fleet modernization, mainly due to the fact that the region studied is the most socioeconomic developed, by far, with the largest demand for air transportation, thus making the impacts much more perceptible for the communities and the airport management involved. With the emergence of these impacts, several new projects and investments are being discussed and pushed forward, despite budgetary constrains being a reality in almost every Brazilian city, even in the SE region. In view of this, the paper presents how the general planning could be carried out in order to adapt the airports' infrastructures in function of the proposed (and in some cases, necessary) fleet renewal. Ultimately, we will present the present picture and two future scenarios m order to determine the level of service in the existent passenger terminal facilities in the wake of the possible operation of several new aircraft. Keywords: Airline fleet planning, Airport planning, Regional development, Regional Jets.

  3. Regional air quality management aspects of climate change: impact of climate mitigation options on regional air emissions.

    PubMed

    Rudokas, Jason; Miller, Paul J; Trail, Marcus A; Russell, Armistead G

    2015-04-21

    We investigate the projected impact of six climate mitigation scenarios on U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOX) associated with energy use in major sectors of the U.S. economy (commercial, residential, industrial, electricity generation, and transportation). We use the EPA U.S. 9-region national database with the MARKet Allocation energy system model to project emissions changes over the 2005 to 2050 time frame. The modeled scenarios are two carbon tax, two low carbon transportation, and two biomass fuel choice scenarios. In the lower carbon tax and both biomass fuel choice scenarios, SO2 and NOX achieve reductions largely through pre-existing rules and policies, with only relatively modest additional changes occurring from the climate mitigation measures. The higher carbon tax scenario projects greater declines in CO2 and SO2 relative to the 2050 reference case, but electricity sector NOX increases. This is a result of reduced investments in power plant NOX controls in earlier years in anticipation of accelerated coal power plant retirements, energy penalties associated with carbon capture systems, and shifting of NOX emissions in later years from power plants subject to a regional NOX cap to those in regions not subject to the cap.

  4. The regional impact of urban emissions on climate over central Europe: present and future emission perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huszár, Peter; Belda, Michal; Karlický, Jan; Pišoft, Petr; Halenka, Tomáš

    2016-10-01

    The regional climate model RegCM4.2 was coupled to the chemistry transport model CAMx, including two-way interactions, to evaluate the regional impact of urban emission from central European cities on climate for present-day (2001-2010) and future (2046-2055) periods, and for the future one only emission changes are considered. Short-lived non-CO2 emissions are considered and, for the future impact, only the emission changes are accounted for (the climate is kept "fixed"). The urban impact on climate is calculated with the annihilation approach in which two experiments are performed: one with all emissions included and one without urban emissions. The radiative impacts of non-CO2 primary and secondary formed pollutants are considered, namely ozone (O3), sulfates (PSO4), nitrates (PNO3), primary organic aerosol and primary elementary carbon (POA and PEC).The validation of the modelling system is limited to key climate parameters, near-surface temperature and precipitation. It shows that the model, in general, underestimates temperature and overestimates precipitation. We attribute this behaviour to an excess of cloudiness/water vapour present in the model atmosphere as a consequence of overpredicted evaporation from the surface.The impact on climate is characterised by statistically significant cooling of up to -0.02 and -0.04 K in winter (DJF) and summer (JJA), mainly over cities. We found that the main contributors to the cooling are the direct and indirect effects of the aerosols, while the ozone titration, calculated especially for DJF, plays rather a minor role. In accordance with the vertical extent of the urban-emission-induced aerosol perturbation, cooling dominates the first few model layers up to about 150 m in DJF and 1000 m in JJA. We found a clear diurnal cycle of the radiative impacts with maximum cooling just after noon (JJA) or later in afternoon (DJF). Furthermore, statistically significant decreases of surface radiation are modelled in accordance

  5. Regional Economic Accounting (REAcct). A software tool for rapidly approximating economic impacts

    SciTech Connect

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Vargas, Vanessa N.; Loose, Verne William; Starks, Shirley J.; Ellebracht, Lory A.

    2011-07-01

    This paper describes the Regional Economic Accounting (REAcct) analysis tool that has been in use for the last 5 years to rapidly estimate approximate economic impacts for disruptions due to natural or manmade events. It is based on and derived from the well-known and extensively documented input-output modeling technique initially presented by Leontief and more recently further developed by numerous contributors. REAcct provides county-level economic impact estimates in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment for any area in the United States. The process for using REAcct incorporates geospatial computational tools and site-specific economic data, permitting the identification of geographic impact zones that allow differential magnitude and duration estimates to be specified for regions affected by a simulated or actual event. Using these data as input to REAcct, the number of employees for 39 directly affected economic sectors (including 37 industry production sectors and 2 government sectors) are calculated and aggregated to provide direct impact estimates. Indirect estimates are then calculated using Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II) multipliers. The interdependent relationships between critical infrastructures, industries, and markets are captured by the relationships embedded in the inputoutput modeling structure.

  6. Trans-boundary Air Quality and Health Impacts of Emissions in Various Regions in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, Y.; Yim, S. H. L.

    2015-12-01

    In last few decades, China has gone through a rapid development, resulting in urbanization and industrialization. However, the abundant economic achievements were gained at the cost of a sharp deterioration of air quality. Previous research has reported the adverse health outcome from outdoor air pollution in China. Nevertheless, the trans-boundary air quality and health impacts due to emissions in various regions in China have yet fully understood. Our study aims to comprehensively apportion the attribution of emissions in seven regions in China, which are defined based on their geographical locations, to air pollutions, as well as the resultant health impacts in their local areas and other regions, provinces, and cities in China. A regional air quality model is applied to simulate the physical and chemical processes of various pollutants in the atmosphere. The resultant health outcome, such as premature death, is estimated by using the concentration-response functions reported in the literature. We anticipate that our results would serve as a critical reference for research community and policy makers to mitigate the air quality and health impacts of emissions in China.

  7. The research on the impact of energy-environment policy on regional development—based on CGE model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Y. M.

    2017-01-01

    In this study, we will focus on study the impact of energy and environment regulatory on the inter-regional coordinated development from the regional level. Making use of multi-regional energy-economy-environmental computable general equilibrium(CGE) model, we will analysis the effect of regional energy regulation in the future. We will research the impact of the carbon emissions trading and other environmental policy on regional economic development and industrial structure. The results show that the regulation of energy and environment can promote regional industry to upgrade and different policies of energy and environmental are needed to implement to mitigate the negative impact on the economy of different regions. In the paper, we expand the traditional regional energy-environmental CGE model tools for providing new quantitative methods to study regional energy and environmental problems in China.

  8. Impact of the Pacific Southwest Regional Medical Library Service on hospital library development.

    PubMed Central

    Graham, E; Van Vuren, D D; Flack, V

    1987-01-01

    A study was designed to evaluate the progress of hospital libraries within Region 7 since the Pacific Southwest Regional Medical Library Services (PSRMLS) began in 1969. Library progress was defined as an increase in extent and types of services and resources offered. The study assessed the impact of Regional Medical Library programs on hospital libraries and compared resources and services reported in 1969, 1971, and 1984. The 1984 data were also measured against a set of core library services and resources that should be provided by a full-service hospital library. In addition to assessing the quality of PSRMLS programs and their effect on Region 7 hospital libraries, the study documented extensive growth in staffing, collection size, and services. PSRMLS programs were highly rated by the respondents, who also indicated that participation in PSRMLS programs improved specific library resources and services. PMID:3676532

  9. Marine species in ambient low-oxygen regions subject to double jeopardy impacts of climate change.

    PubMed

    Stortini, Christine H; Chabot, Denis; Shackell, Nancy L

    2016-10-18

    We have learned much about the impacts of warming on the productivity and distribution of marine organisms, but less about the impact of warming combined with other environmental stressors, including oxygen depletion. Also, the combined impact of multiple environmental stressors requires evaluation at the scales most relevant to resource managers. We use the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada, characterized by a large permanently hypoxic zone, as a case study. Species distribution models were used to predict the impact of multiple scenarios of warming and oxygen depletion on the local density of three commercially and ecologically important species. Substantial changes are projected within 20-40 years. A eurythermal depleted species already limited to shallow, oxygen-rich refuge habitat (Atlantic cod) may be relatively uninfluenced by oxygen depletion but increase in density within refuge areas with warming. A more stenothermal, deep-dwelling species (Greenland halibut) is projected to lose ~55% of its high-density areas under the combined impacts of warming and oxygen depletion. Another deep-dwelling, more eurythermal species (Northern shrimp) would lose ~4% of its high-density areas due to oxygen depletion alone, but these impacts may be buffered by warming, which may increase density by 8% in less hypoxic areas, but decrease density by ~20% in the warmest parts of the region. Due to local climate variability and extreme events, and that our models cannot project changes in species sensitivity to hypoxia with warming, our results should be considered conservative. We present an approach to effectively evaluate the individual and cumulative impacts of multiple environmental stressors on a species-by-species basis at the scales most relevant to managers. Our study may provide a basis for work in other low-oxygen regions and should contribute to a growing literature base in climate science, which will continue to be of support for resource managers as climate change

  10. Regional impacts of oil and gas development on ozone formation in the western United States.

    PubMed

    Rodriguez, Marco A; Barna, Michael G; Moore, Tom

    2009-09-01

    The Intermountain West is currently experiencing increased growth in oil and gas production, which has the potential to affect the visibility and air quality of various Class I areas in the region. The following work presents an analysis of these impacts using the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx). CAMx is a state-of-the-science, "one-atmosphere" Eulerian photochemical dispersion model that has been widely used in the assessment of gaseous and particulate air pollution (ozone, fine [PM2.5], and coarse [PM10] particulate matter). Meteorology and emissions inventories developed by the Western Regional Air Partnership Regional Modeling Center for regional haze analysis and planning are used to establish an ozone baseline simulation for the year 2002. The predicted range of values for ozone in the national parks and other Class I areas in the western United States is then evaluated with available observations from the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET). This evaluation demonstrates the model's suitability for subsequent planning, sensitivity, and emissions control strategy modeling. Once the ozone baseline simulation has been established, an analysis of the model results is performed to investigate the regional impacts of oil and gas development on the ozone concentrations that affect the air quality of Class I areas. Results indicate that the maximum 8-hr ozone enhancement from oil and gas (9.6 parts per billion [ppb]) could affect southwestern Colorado and northwestern New Mexico. Class I areas in this region that are likely to be impacted by increased ozone include Mesa Verde National Park and Weminuche Wilderness Area in Colorado and San Pedro Parks Wilderness Area, Bandelier Wilderness Area, Pecos Wilderness Area, and Wheeler Peak Wilderness Area in New Mexico.

  11. Assessing climate change impacts on water resources in remote mountain regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buytaert, Wouter; De Bièvre, Bert

    2013-04-01

    From a water resources perspective, remote mountain regions are often considered as a basket case. They are often regions where poverty is often interlocked with multiple threats to water supply, data scarcity, and high uncertainties. In these environments, it is paramount to generate locally relevant knowledge about water resources and how they impact local livelihoods. This is often problematic. Existing environmental data collection tends to be geographically biased towards more densely populated regions, and prioritized towards strategic economic activities. Data may also be locked behind institutional and technological barriers. These issues create a "knowledge trap" for data-poor regions, which is especially acute in remote and hard-to-reach mountain regions. We present lessons learned from a decade of water resources research in remote mountain regions of the Andes, Africa and South Asia. We review the entire tool chain of assessing climate change impacts on water resources, including the interrogation and downscaling of global circulation models, translating climate variables in water availability and access, and assessing local vulnerability. In global circulation models, mountain regions often stand out as regions of high uncertainties and lack of agreement of future trends. This is partly a technical artifact because of the different resolution and representation of mountain topography, but it also highlights fundamental uncertainties in climate impacts on mountain climate. This problem also affects downscaling efforts, because regional climate models should be run in very high spatial resolution to resolve local gradients, which is computationally very expensive. At the same time statistical downscaling methods may fail to find significant relations between local climate properties and synoptic processes. Further uncertainties are introduced when downscaled climate variables such as precipitation and temperature are to be translated in hydrologically

  12. Assessing the impact of urbanization on regional net primary productivity in Jiangyin County, China.

    PubMed

    Xu, C; Liu, M; An, S; Chen, J M; Yan, P

    2007-11-01

    Urbanization is one of the most important aspects of global change. The process of urbanization has a significant impact on the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle. The Yangtze Delta region has one of the highest rates of urbanization in China. In this study, carried out in Jiangyin County as a representative region within the Yangtze Delta, land use and land cover changes were estimated using Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery. With these satellite data and the BEPS process model (Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator), the impacts of urbanization on regional net primary productivity (NPP) and annual net primary production were assessed for 1991 and 2002. Landsat-based land cover maps in 1991 and 2002 showed that urban development encroached large areas of cropland and forest. Expansion of residential areas and reduction of vegetated areas were the major forms of land transformation in Jiangyin County during this period. Mean NPP of the total area decreased from 818 to 699 gCm(-2)yr(-1) during the period of 1991 to 2002. NPP of cropland was only reduced by 2.7% while forest NPP was reduced by 9.3%. Regional annual primary production decreased from 808 GgC in 1991 to 691 GgC in 2002, a reduction of 14.5%. Land cover changes reduced regional NPP directly, and the increasing intensity and frequency of human-induced disturbance in the urbanized areas could be the main reason for the decrease in forest NPP.

  13. Wintertime Air Quality Impacts from Oil and Natural Gas Drilling Operations in the Bakken Formation Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Evanoski-Cole, Ashley; Sive, Barkley; Zhou, Yong; Prenni, Anthony; Schurman, Misha; Day, Derek; Sullivan, Amy; Li, Yi; Hand, Jenny; Gebhart, Kristi; Schichtel, Bret; Collett, Jeffrey

    2016-04-01

    Oil and natural gas extraction has dramatically increased in the last decade in the United States due to the increased use of unconventional drilling techniques which include horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. The impact of these drilling activities on local and regional air quality in oil and gas basins across the country are still relatively unknown, especially in recently developed basins such as the Bakken shale formation. This study is the first to conduct a comprehensive characterization of the regional air quality in the Bakken region. The Bakken shale formation, part of the Williston basin, is located in North Dakota and Montana in the United States and Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Canada. Oil and gas drilling operations can impact air quality in a variety of ways, including the generation of atmospheric particulate matter (PM), hazardous air pollutants, ozone, and greenhouse gas emissions. During the winter especially, PM formation can be enhanced and meteorological conditions can favor increased concentrations of PM and other pollutants. In this study, ground-based measurements throughout the Bakken region in North Dakota and Montana were collected over two consecutive winters to gain regional trends of air quality impacts from the oil and gas drilling activities. Additionally, one field site had a comprehensive suite of instrumentation operating at high time resolution to gain detailed characterization of the atmospheric composition. Measurements included organic carbon and black carbon concentrations in PM, the characterization of inorganic PM, inorganic gases, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), precipitation and meteorology. These elevated PM episodes were further investigated using the local meteorological conditions and regional transport patterns. Episodes of elevated concentrations of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide were also detected. The VOC concentrations were analyzed and specific VOCs that are known oil and gas tracers were used

  14. Regional characterization of freshwater Use in LCA: modeling direct impacts on human health.

    PubMed

    Boulay, Anne-Marie; Bulle, Cécile; Bayart, Jean-Baptiste; Deschênes, Louise; Margni, Manuele

    2011-10-15

    Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a methodology that quantifies potential environmental impacts for comparative purposes in a decision-making context. While potential environmental impacts from pollutant emissions into water are characterized in LCA, impacts from water unavailability are not yet fully quantified. Water use can make the resource unavailable to other users by displacement or quality degradation. A reduction in water availability to human users can potentially affect human health. If financial resources are available, there can be adaptations that may, in turn, shift the environmental burdens to other life cycle stages and impact categories. This paper proposes a model to evaluate these potential impacts in an LCA context. It considers the water that is withdrawn and released, its quality and scarcity in order to evaluate the loss of functionality associated with water uses. Regionalized results are presented for impacts on human health for two modeling approaches regarding affected users, including or not domestic uses, and expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALY). A consumption and quality based scarcity indicator is also proposed as a midpoint. An illustrative example is presented for the production of corrugated board with different effluents, demonstrating the importance of considering quality, process effluents and the difference between the modeling approaches.

  15. Inductive analysis about the impact of climate warming on regional geomorphic evolution in arid area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anayit, Mattohti; Abulizi, Mailiya

    2016-04-01

    Climate change on the surface of earth will produce a chain reaction among so many global natural environmental elements. Namely, all the issues will be affected by the climate change, just like the regional water environment, formation and development of landscape, plants and animals living environment, the survival of microorganisms, the human economic environment and health, and the whole social environment changes at well. But because of slow frequency of climate change and it is volatility change, its influence on other factors and the overall environmental performance is not obvious, and its reflection performs slowly. Using regional weather data, we calculated qualitatively and quantitatively and did analysis the impact of climate warming on Xinjiang (a province of China) geomorphic evolution elements, including the ground weather, erosion rate, collapse change, landslide occurrences changes and impact debris flow, combining the field survey and indoor test methods. Key words: climate change; the geomorphic induction; landscape change in river basin; Xinjiang

  16. Health impacts of climate change and biosecurity in the Asian Pacific region.

    PubMed

    Sly, Peter D

    2011-01-01

    Our climate is changing as a result of human activity, and such changes have the potential to have a significant impact on human health. The basic requirements for health--clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food and secure shelter--are all vulnerable to climate change. Low-income developing countries are especially vulnerable; no country, however, is totally immune. In Australia, we are already seeing evidence of the health effects of climate change with an increase in temperature-related food poisoning events and an increase in mosquito-borne infections, including Ross River virus and Dengue fever. In the Asian Pacific region the issues identified as most pressing vary from country to country, but a common theme is a lack of public understanding and education and lack of capacity for implementing mitigation strategies. Strategies addressing the health impacts of climate change must incorporate the principles of social justice and equity within the region.

  17. Ensemble simulations to study the impact of land use change of Atlanta to regional climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, P.; Hu, Y.; Stone, B.; Vargo, J.; Nenes, A.; Russell, A.; Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A.

    2012-12-01

    Studies show that urban areas may be the "first responders" to climate change (Rosenzweig et al., 2010). Of particular interest is the potential increased temperatures in urban areas, due to use of structures and surfaces that increase local heating, and how that may impact health, air quality and other environmental factors. In response, interest has grown as to how the modification of land use in urban areas, in order to mitigate the adverse effects of urbanization can serve to reduce local temperatures, and how climate is impacted more regionally. Studies have been conducted to investigate the impact of land use change on local or regional climate by dynamic downscaling using regional climate models (RCMs), the boundary conditions (BCs) and initial conditions (ICs) of which result from coarser-resolution reanalysis data or general circulation models (GCMs). However, few studies have focused on demonstrating whether the land use change in local areas significantly impacts the climate of the larger region of the domain, and the spatial scale of the impact from urban-scale changes. This work investigated the significance of the impact of land use change in the Atlanta city area on different scales, using a range of modeling resolutions, including the contiguous US (with 36km resolution), the southeastern US (with 12km resolution) and the state of Georgia (with 4km resolution). We used WRF version 3.1.1 with and ran continuous from June to August of a simulated year 2050, driven by GISS ModelE with inputs corresponding to RCP4.5. During the simulation, spectral nudging is used in the 36km resolution domain to maintain the climate patterns with scales larger than 2000km. Two-way nesting is also used in order to take into account the feedback of nesting domains across model domains. Two land use cases over the Atlanta city are chosen. For the base case, most of the urban area of Atlanta is covered with forest; while for the second, "impervious" case, all the urban

  18. Regional diversity reverses the negative impacts of an alien predator on local species-poor communities.

    PubMed

    Loewen, Charlie J G; Vinebrooke, Rolf D

    2016-10-01

    Species diversity is often an implicit source of biological insurance for communities against the impacts of novel perturbations, such as the introduction of an invasive species. High environmental heterogeneity (e.g., a mountainous gradient) is expected to beget greater regional species diversity and variation in functional traits related to environmental tolerances. Thus, heterogeneous metacommunities are expected to provide more tolerant colonists that buffer stressed local communities in the absence of dispersal limitation. We tested the hypothesis that importation of a regional zooplankton pool assembled from a diverse array of lakes and ponds lessens the impacts of a novel predator on local species-poor alpine communities by increasing response diversity (i.e., diversity of tolerances to environmental change) as mediated by variation in functional traits related to predator evasion. We also tested whether impacts varied with temperature, as warming may modify (e.g., dampen or amplify) invasion effects. An eight-week factorial experiment ([fishless vs. introduced Oncorhynchus mykiss (rainbow trout)] × [ambient temperature vs. heated] × [local vs. local + regional species pool]) was conducted using 32 1,000-L mesocosms. Associations between experimental treatments and species functional traits were tested by R-mode linked to Q-mode (RLQ) and fourth-corner analyses. Although the introduced predator suppressed local species richness and community biomass, colonization by several montane zooplankters reversed these negative effects, resulting in increased species diversity and production. Invasion resistance was unaffected by higher temperatures, which failed to elicit any significance impacts on the community. We discovered that the smaller body sizes of imported species drove functional overcompensation (i.e., increased production) in invaded communities. The observed ecological surprise showed how regionally sourced biodiversity from a highly

  19. Collaborative experiment on intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models for climate impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krysanova, Valentina; Hattermann, Fred

    2015-04-01

    The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) is a community-driven modelling effort bringing together impact modellers across sectors and scales to create more consistent and comprehensive projections of the impacts of climate change. This project is aimed in establishing a long-term, systematic, cross-sectoral impact model intercomparison process, including comparison of climate change impacts for multiple sectors using ensemble of climate scenarios and applying global and regional impact models. The project is coordinated by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. An overview of this project and collaborative experiment related to the regional-scale water sector model intercomparison in ISI-MIP will be presented. The regional-scale water sector modelling includes eleven models applied to eleven large-scale river basins worldwide (not every model is applied to every of eleven basins). In total, 60-65 model applications will be done by several collaborating groups from different Institutions. The modelling tools include: ECOMAG, HBV, HBV-light, HYPE, LASCAM, LISFLOOD, mHM, SWAT, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP. Eleven river basins chosen for the model application and intercomparison are: the Rhine and Tagus in Europe, the Niger and Blue Nile in Africa, the Ganges, Lena, Upper Yellow and Upper Yangtze in Asia, the Upper Mississippi and Upper Amazon in America, and the Murray-Darling in Australia. Their drainage areas range between 67,490 km2 (Tagus) to 2,460,000 km2 (Lena). Data from global and regional datasets are used for the model setup and calibration. The model calibration and validation was done using the WATCH climate data for all cases, also checking the representation of high and low percentiles of river discharge. For most of the basins, also intermediate gauge stations were included in the calibration. The calibration and validation results, evaluated with the Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and percent bias (PBIAS), are mostly

  20. Changes in intensity of the regional Hadley cell in Indian Ocean and its impacts on surrounding regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freitas, Ana Carolina Vasques; Aímola, Luis; Ambrizzi, Tércio; de Oliveira, Cristiano Prestrelo

    2016-09-01

    The impacts of changes in the intensity of the regional Hadley Cell (HC) in the Indian Ocean (HCIO) on its surrounding regions are investigated during the period 1979-2013. A strengthening of the HCIO and the Indian monsoon (IM) is found during austral winter (JJA) and spring (SON) seasons. This is associated with the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific and Indian Ocean. A La Niña signal started to form in JJA over the equatorial Pacific region, and in SON, it was completely developed. Significant positive SST anomalies are seen over the western Pacific and western Indian Ocean around 10°S in JJA, associated with positive temperature anomalies in the south of China, in the north of the Maritime Continent, and in the southeastern coast of Africa. In SON, they are observed over the western Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean around the equator, associated with positive temperature anomalies observed on a great part of the Maritime Continent and southeastern Atlantic Ocean. Positive rainfall anomalies are seen mainly over the south of India, south of China, Maritime Continent, and eastern coast of Australia. In SON, the connection monsoon-ENSO-Hadley is stronger, because of a series of positive feedbacks that reinforce the initial connection. SST gradients explain much of the variability in the intensity of the HCIO and, especially, of the IM. However, other factors also seem to come into play in determining the changes of the HCIO intensity, whereas the SST changes have a dominant influence on the IM.

  1. Investigation and Development of Data-Driven D-Region Model for HF Systems Impacts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eccles, J. V.; Rice, D.; Sojka, J. J.; Hunsucker, R. D.

    2002-01-01

    Space Environment Corporation (SEC) and RP Consultants (RPC) are to develop and validate a weather-capable D region model for making High Frequency (HF) absorption predictions in support of the HF communications and radar communities. The weather-capable model will assimilate solar and earth space observations from NASA satellites. The model will account for solar-induced impacts on HF absorption, including X-rays, Solar Proton Events (SPE's), and auroral precipitation. The work plan includes: I . Optimize D-region model to quickly obtain ion and electron densities for proper HF absorption calculations. 2. Develop indices-driven modules for D-region ionization sources for low, mid, & high latitudes including X-rays, cosmic rays, auroral precipitation, & solar protons. (Note: solar spectrum & auroral modules already exist). 3. Setup low-cost monitors of existing HF beacons and add one single-frequency beacon. 4. Use PENEX HF-link database with HF monitor data to validate D-region/HF absorption model using climatological ionization drivers. 5. Develop algorithms to assimilate NASA satellite data of solar, interplanetary, and auroral observations into ionization source modules. 6. Use PENEX HF-link & HF-beacon data for skill score comparison of assimilation versus climatological D-region/HF absorption model. Only some satellites are available for the PENEX time period, thus, HF-beacon data is necessary. 7. Use HF beacon monitors to develop HF-link data assimilation algorithms for regional improvement to the D-region/HF absorption model.

  2. Regional air quality impacts of future fire emissions in Sumatra and Kalimantan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marlier, Miriam E.; DeFries, Ruth S.; Kim, Patrick S.; Gaveau, David L. A.; Koplitz, Shannon N.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Margono, Belinda A.; Myers, Samuel S.

    2015-05-01

    Fire emissions associated with land cover change and land management contribute to the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants, which can affect regional air quality and climate. Mitigating these impacts requires a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between fires and different land cover change trajectories and land management strategies. We develop future fire emissions inventories from 2010-2030 for Sumatra and Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) to assess the impact of varying levels of forest and peatland conservation on air quality in Equatorial Asia. To compile these inventories, we combine detailed land cover information from published maps of forest extent, satellite fire radiative power observations, fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database, and spatially explicit future land cover projections using a land cover change model. We apply the sensitivities of mean smoke concentrations to Indonesian fire emissions, calculated by the GEOS-Chem adjoint model, to our scenario-based future fire emissions inventories to quantify the different impacts of fires on surface air quality across Equatorial Asia. We find that public health impacts are highly sensitive to the location of fires, with emissions from Sumatra contributing more to smoke concentrations at population centers across the region than Kalimantan, which had higher emissions by more than a factor of two. Compared to business-as-usual projections, protecting peatlands from fires reduces smoke concentrations in the cities of Singapore and Palembang by 70% and 40%, and by 60% for the Equatorial Asian region, weighted by the population in each grid cell. Our results indicate the importance of focusing conservation priorities on protecting both forested (intact or logged) peatlands and non-forested peatlands from fire, even after considering potential leakage of deforestation pressure to other areas, in order to limit the impact of fire emissions on atmospheric smoke concentrations and

  3. Regionalization and Evaluation of Impacts of Climate Change on Mexican Coasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nava-Sanchez, E. H.; Murillo-Jimenez, J. M.; Godinez-Orta, L.; Morales-Perez, R. A.

    2009-04-01

    Mexican coasts exhibit a high variety of geoforms and processes, and consequently, are exposed to a variability of types and impact levels of geological hazards. Tropical cyclones are the most devastating hazards for the Mexican coast, although, impact levels are higher on the southern coast of both Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The second dangerous geo-hazards are earthquakes and tsunamis, which affect all Pacific coast, causing more damage the earthquakes generated in the Cocos Trench. For seismic hazards, there is a regionalization of the Mexican territory, however, even though the high levels of damages caused by other natural hazards, there is a lack of initiatives for performing atlas of natural hazards or coastal management plans. Exceptions are the local scale atlas of natural hazards by the Mexican Geological Survey or some other local scale atlas made with several errors by non experience private consultant companies. Our work shows results of analyses of coastal geological hazards associated to global warming such as the sea level rise, and the increase in strength of some coastal processes. Initially, due to the high diversity in coastal environments for the Mexican coast, it was considered that, a regional characterization of the coastal zone, and the gathering of environmental data for determining levels of impact of the various coastal hazards, as an evaluation of coastal vulnerability. Thus, the basic criteria for defining Coastal Regions, in order of importance, were the following: geomorphology, climate, geology, tectonics, and oceanography. Also, some anthropogenic factors were taken in account for the coastal regionalization, such as civil construction along the coastline, land used and modification of the fluvial system. The analysis of such criteria, allows us to classify the Mexican coasts in 10 Coastal Regions. On the Pacific coast regions are: (I) Pacific Coast of Baja California, (II) Gulf Coast of Baja California, (III) Coastal Plain of

  4. East Asian Studies of Tropospheric Aerosols and their Impact on Regional Climate (EAST -AIRC): An overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhangqing, Li; Li, C.; Chen, H.; Tsay, S.-C.; Holben, B.; Huang, J.; Li, B.; Maring, H.; Qian, Y.; Shi, G.; Xia, X.; Yin, Y.; Zheng, Y.; Zhuang, G.

    2011-01-01

    As the most populated region of the world, Asia is a major source of aerosols with potential large impact over vast downstream areas, Papers published in this special section describe the variety of aerosols observed in China and their effects and interactions with the regional climate as part of the East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols and their Impact on Regional Climate (EAST-AIRC), The majority of the papers are based on analyses of observations made under three field projects, namely, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Mobile Facility mission in China (AMF-China), the East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols: An International Regional Experiment (EAST-AIRE), and the Atmospheric Aerosols of China and their Climate Effects (AACCE), The former two are U,S,-China collaborative projects, and the latter is a part of the China's National Basic Research program (or often referred to as "973 project"), Routine meteorological data of China are also employed in some studies, The wealth of general and speCIalized measurements lead to extensive and close-up investigations of the optical, physical, and chemical properties of anthropogenic, natural, and mixed aerosols; their sources, formation, and transport mechanisms; horizontal, vertical, and temporal variations; direct and indirect effects; and interactions with the East Asian monsoon system, Particular efforts are made to advance our understanding of the mixing and interaction between dust and anthropogenic pollutants during transport. Several modeling studies were carried out to simulate aerosol impact on radiation budget, temperature, precipitation, wind and atmospheric circulation, fog, etc, In addition, impacts of the Asian monsoon system on aerosol loading are also simulated.

  5. Impact of Deforestation on Cloud Properties and Rainfall Over the Costa Rica-Nicaraguan region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ray, D. K.; Nair, U. S.; Welch, R. M.; Lawton, R. O.

    2002-12-01

    examined. Previous modeling work has shown that in this region the lowlands and highlands are highly coupled. Preliminary results from numerical modeling studies illustrating the impacts of deforestation on the regional climate will also be presented.

  6. Impact of external industrial sources on the regional and local air quality of Mexico Megacity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Almanza, Victor; Molina, Luisa T.; Li, Guohui; Fast, Jerome; Sosa, Gustavo

    2014-05-01

    The air quality of megacities can be influenced by external emissions sources on both regional and global scales. At the same time their outflow emissions can exert an important impact to the surrounding environment. The present study evaluates an SO2 peak observed on 24 March 2006 at the suburban supersite and ambient air quality monitoring stations located in the northern region of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) during MILAGRO campaign. We found that this peak could be related to an important episodic emission event coming from Tizayuca region, northeast of the MCMA. Back trajectories analyses suggest that the emission event started in the early morning at 04:00 LST and lasted for about 9 hours. The estimated emission rate is high, about 2 kg s-1. This finding suggests the possibility of 'overlooked' emission sources in Tizayuca region that could influence the air quality of the MCMA. This further motivated us to study the cement plants, including those in the State of Hidalgo and the State of Mexico. We found that they can also contribute SO2 in the NE region of the basin, at the suburban supersite and that at some monitoring stations; their contribution can be even higher than from the Tula Industrial Complex (TIC). The contribution of TIC to regional ozone levels is also estimated. The model suggests low contribution to the MCMA and slightly higher contribution at the suburban and rural supersites. However, the contribution could be high in the upper northwest region of the basin and in the southwest and south-southeast regions of the State of Hidalgo. In addition, a first estimate of the potential contribution from flaring activities to regional ozone levels is presented. Results suggest that part of the total regional ozone from TIC-generated precursors could be related to flaring activities.

  7. Electron impact polarization expected in solar EUV lines from flaring chromospheres/transition regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fineschi, S.; Fontenla, Juan M.; Macneice, P.; Ljepojevic, N. N.

    1991-01-01

    We have evaluated lower bounds on the degree of impact Extreme Ultraviolet/Ultraviolet (EUV/UV) line polarization expected during solar flares. This polarization arises from collisional excitation by energetic electrons with non-Maxwellian velocity distributions. Linear polarization was observed in the S I 1437 A line by the Ultraviolet Spectrometer and Polarimeter/Solar Maximum Mission (UVSP/SMM) during a flare on 15 July 1980. An early interpretation suggested that impact excitation by electrons propagating through the steep temperature gradient of the flaring transition region/high chromosphere produced this polarization. Our calculations show that the observed polarization in this UV line cannot be due to this effect. We find instead that, in some flare models, the energetic electrons can produce an impact polarization of a few percent in EUV neutral helium lines (i.e., lambda lambda 522, 537, and 584 A).

  8. Disturbance to desert soil ecosystems contributes to dust-mediated impacts at regional scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pointing, Stephen B.; Belnap, Jayne

    2014-01-01

    This review considers the regional scale of impacts arising from disturbance to desert soil ecosystems. Deserts occupy over one-third of the Earth’s terrestrial surface, and biological soil covers are critical to stabilization of desert soils. Disturbance to these can contribute to massive destabilization and mobilization of dust. This results in dust storms that are transported across inter-continental distances where they have profound negative impacts. Dust deposition at high altitudes causes radiative forcing of snowpack that leads directly to altered hydrological regimes and changes to freshwater biogeochemistry. In marine environments dust deposition impacts phytoplankton diazotrophy, and causes coral reef senescence. Increasingly dust is also recognized as a threat to human health.

  9. Release of Impact-debris in Perturbed Ring Regions: Dynamical and Photometric Simulations.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salo, Heikki J.; Schmidt, J.

    2007-10-01

    The typical impact velocities in Saturn's rings are of the order of a few mm/sec. In such a small velocity regime the larger ring particles are likely to be covered by a regolith of smaller particles (see Albers & Spahn 2005). However, in the perturbed ring regions (e.g. due to satellite density waves, strong self-gravity wakes, viscous overstabilities) the impact velocities may be sufficiently enhanced to lead to a significant release of free regolith debris. We explore this possibility via local N-body simulations, keeping track of the distribution of debris-producing fast impacts. The potential photometric consequences of such free debris are checked with Monte Carlo simulations.

  10. Regionalization of land-use impacts on streamflow using a network of paired catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ochoa-Tocachi, Boris F.; Buytaert, Wouter; De Bièvre, Bert

    2016-09-01

    Quantifying the impact of land use and cover (LUC) change on catchment hydrological response is essential for land-use planning and management. Yet hydrologists are often not able to present consistent and reliable evidence to support such decision-making. The issue tends to be twofold: a scarcity of relevant observations, and the difficulty of regionalizing any existing observations. This study explores the potential of a paired catchment monitoring network to provide statistically robust, regionalized predictions of LUC change impact in an environment of high hydrological variability. We test the importance of LUC variables to explain hydrological responses and to improve regionalized predictions using 24 catchments distributed along the Tropical Andes. For this, we calculate first 50 physical catchment properties, and then select a subset based on correlation analysis. The reduced set is subsequently used to regionalize a selection of hydrological indices using multiple linear regression. Contrary to earlier studies, we find that incorporating LUC variables in the regional model structures increases significantly regression performance and predictive capacity for 66% of the indices. For the runoff ratio, baseflow index, and slope of the flow duration curve, the mean absolute error reduces by 53% and the variance of the residuals by 79%, on average. We attribute the explanatory capacity of LUC in the regional model to the pairwise monitoring setup, which increases the contrast of the land-use signal in the data set. As such, it may be a useful strategy to optimize data collection to support watershed management practices and improve decision-making in data-scarce regions.

  11. A statistical study of the regional impact of deforestation on climate in the LMD GCM

    SciTech Connect

    Polcher, J.; Laval, K.

    1994-09-01

    The present study uses the general circulation model of the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD-GCM) coupled to the land-surface, vegetation model SECHIBA. The impact of deforestation on climate is discussed. Replacing tropical forests by degraded pastures changes albedo, the roughness length and the hydrological properties of the surface. The experiment was carried out over eleven years using the observed sea surface temperature from 1978 to 1988, which includes two major El Nino events. The discussion of the results in this study is limited to the regional impact of deforestation. The changes found for the surface fluxes in Amazonia, Africa, and Indonesia are examined in detail and compared in order to understand the impact on temperature. Special attention is paid to feedback mechanisms which compensate for the surface changes and to the statistical significant of these results within athe tropical variability of climate. It is shown that the relatively small regional impact of deforestation in this study is statistically significant and largely independent of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. 27 refs., 7 figs., 11 tabs.

  12. Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms.

    PubMed

    Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

    2014-01-01

    The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions.

  13. Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; de Lavergne, Jean-Guy Devezeaux; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

    2014-02-01

    The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions.

  14. The Economic Impact of Piedmont Virginia Community College upon Its Service Region. Research Report Number 2-94.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Head, Ronald B.

    A study was conducted to determine the economic impact of Piedmont Virginia Community College (PVCC) on its service area for fiscal year 1992-93. Three models of economic impact were used in the study: the "short cut" method (SCM) calculating impact based on data on college, employee, and student expenditures in the service region; the…

  15. Analyzing the impact of ambient temperature indicators on transformer life in different regions of Chinese mainland.

    PubMed

    Bai, Cui-fen; Gao, Wen-Sheng; Liu, Tong

    2013-01-01

    Regression analysis is applied to quantitatively analyze the impact of different ambient temperature characteristics on the transformer life at different locations of Chinese mainland. 200 typical locations in Chinese mainland are selected for the study. They are specially divided into six regions so that the subsequent analysis can be done in a regional context. For each region, the local historical ambient temperature and load data are provided as inputs variables of the life consumption model in IEEE Std. C57.91-1995 to estimate the transformer life at every location. Five ambient temperature indicators related to the transformer life are involved into the partial least squares regression to describe their impact on the transformer life. According to a contribution measurement criterion of partial least squares regression, three indicators are conclusively found to be the most important factors influencing the transformer life, and an explicit expression is provided to describe the relationship between the indicators and the transformer life for every region. The analysis result is applicable to the area where the temperature characteristics are similar to Chinese mainland, and the expressions obtained can be applied to the other locations that are not included in this paper if these three indicators are known.

  16. Climate change trend in the tropical and Caribbean regions and its hydrological impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Setegn, S. G.; Melesse, A. M.

    2010-12-01

    Climate variability and climate change pose significant economic and environmental risks worldwide. There are limited studies in the Caribbean islands in terms of trends in climate change and its impact on hydrology and environmental problems. The study focused in Caribbean watersheds of Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Jamaica and south Florida. Drought, heavy rainfall, high winds, and flooding cause losses to the agricultural and natural resources sectors locally in Florida and in the Caribbean islands. Projected changes in precipitation and temperature in the regions for three seasons (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) were analyzed using outputs from fifteen global climate models (GCMs). Comparison of projected changes in precipitation and temperature across different models for the three future seasons was carried out to get an indication of the consistency of the projected changes in the region. Different downscaling methods were used to downscale the large scale GCM into watershed level climate data. We interpret the different aspects of the hydrological response to imply that changes in runoff and other hydrological variables in the region could be significant, even though the GCMs do not agree on the direction of the change. This implies that climate change may well impact on the surface and ground water resources of the region.

  17. Impact of disaster-related mortality on gross domestic product in the WHO African Region.

    PubMed

    Kirigia, Joses M; Sambo, Luis G; Aldis, William; Mwabu, Germano M

    2004-03-15

    BACKGROUND: Disaster-related mortality is a growing public health concern in the African Region. These deaths are hypothesized to have a significantly negative effect on per capita gross domestic product (GDP). The objective of this study was to estimate the loss in GDP attributable to natural and technological disaster-related mortality in the WHO African Region. METHODS: The impact of disaster-related mortality on GDP was estimated using double-log econometric model and cross-sectional data on various Member States in the WHO African Region. The analysis was based on 45 of the 46 countries in the Region. The data was obtained from various UNDP and World Bank publications. RESULTS: The coefficients for capital (K), educational enrolment (EN), life expectancy (LE) and exports (X) had a positive sign; while imports (M) and disaster mortality (DS) were found to impact negatively on GDP. The above-mentioned explanatory variables were found to have a statistically significant effect on GDP at 5% level in a t-distribution test. Disaster mortality of a single person was found to reduce GDP by US$0.01828. CONCLUSIONS: We have demonstrated that disaster-related mortality has a significant negative effect on GDP. Thus, as policy-makers strive to increase GDP through capital investment, export promotion and increased educational enrolment, they should always keep in mind that investments made in the strengthening of national capacity to mitigate the effects of national disasters expeditiously and effectively will yield significant economic returns.

  18. Impact of disaster-related mortality on gross domestic product in the WHO African Region

    PubMed Central

    Kirigia, Joses M; Sambo, Luis G; Aldis, William; Mwabu, Germano M

    2004-01-01

    Background Disaster-related mortality is a growing public health concern in the African Region. These deaths are hypothesized to have a significantly negative effect on per capita gross domestic product (GDP). The objective of this study was to estimate the loss in GDP attributable to natural and technological disaster-related mortality in the WHO African Region. Methods The impact of disaster-related mortality on GDP was estimated using double-log econometric model and cross-sectional data on various Member States in the WHO African Region. The analysis was based on 45 of the 46 countries in the Region. The data was obtained from various UNDP and World Bank publications. Results The coefficients for capital (K), educational enrolment (EN), life expectancy (LE) and exports (X) had a positive sign; while imports (M) and disaster mortality (DS) were found to impact negatively on GDP. The above-mentioned explanatory variables were found to have a statistically significant effect on GDP at 5% level in a t-distribution test. Disaster mortality of a single person was found to reduce GDP by US$0.01828. Conclusions We have demonstrated that disaster-related mortality has a significant negative effect on GDP. Thus, as policy-makers strive to increase GDP through capital investment, export promotion and increased educational enrolment, they should always keep in mind that investments made in the strengthening of national capacity to mitigate the effects of national disasters expeditiously and effectively will yield significant economic returns. PMID:15113453

  19. Arctic Oscillation impact on thermal regime of the Baltic region Eastern part

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gecaite, Indre; Pogoreltsev, Aleksandr; Ugryumov, Aleksandr

    2016-04-01

    Statistical estimations of Arctic Oscillation (AO) impact on air temperature regime in the Eastern part of Baltic region are presented. The region is characterized by high inter-annual and inter-seasonal variabilities. It is important to note that in the region of global warming extremely low winter temperatures can be observed on the European territory of Russia. AO is one of large-scale global structures of atmospheric circulation closely associated with weather variability in Northern Europe. AO anomalies occur in the upper atmosphere (stratosphere) and only then transferred to tropospheric lower layers. The anomalies can be preserved during long period up to two months, so they can be predictors in long-range weather forecast. In turn, changes in stratospheric polar vortex and sudden stratospheric warmings can be related to the geomagnetic activity. Perhaps, the geomagnetic activity influences the meridional temperature gradient and then changes in the structure of the stratospheric zonal wind. In turn, the changes have an impact on the tropospheric circulation. The stratosphere-troposphere connection occurs during winter months. Therefore, the paper presents the analysis of extremely cold winter anomalies in the Eastern part of Baltic Sea region. At the same time, we considered atmospheric circulation peculiarities related to AO phase change. The analyzable time interval covers 1951-2014.

  20. Assessments of regional climate change and its impacts in Northern Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omstedt, Anders; von Storch, Hans; Reckermann, Marcus; Quante, Markus

    2015-04-01

    Regional climate change assessments are urgently needed to complement the big picture with regional results and scenarios of higher resolution and with relevance for local decision makers and stakeholders. A new type of assessment report originated in the original BACC report of 2008 (BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea region) which has served as role model for other assessments published or in preparation. It represents an approach to assessing and making available current knowledge on regional climate change and its regional impacts on the physical, biogeochemical and biological environment (ecosystems, socio-economic sphere). Reports of this type which are available or underway are the original BACC book (2008), the second BACC book (2015), the climate report for the greater Hamburg area (2011), and the NOSCCA report (North Sea Climate Change Assessment) which is expected to be published in 2016. The assessments are produced by teams of scientists from the region, led by lead authors who recruit experts from relevant topics to contribute. The process is not externally funded and completely based on published scientific evidence, and not biased by political or economic interest groups. The BACC-type reports aim to bring together consolidated knowledge that has broad consensus in the scientific community, but also acknowledging issues for which contradicting opinions are found in the literature, so that no consensus can be reached ("consensus on dissensus"). An international steering committee is responsible for overlooking the process, and all manuscripts are anonymously peer-reviewed by independent international experts. An outstanding outreach aspect of these reports is the close collaboration with regional stakeholders (for the BACC reports: HELCOM, the intergovernmental Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission and the major regional science-policy interface in the Baltic Sea region; for the Hamburg climate report: the Hamburg city

  1. Regional Climate Modeling at ZAMG and climate impact assessment for European ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anders, I.; Zuvela-Aloise, M.; Matulla, C.

    2010-09-01

    The Austrian society, policy, economy and environment request information on changes in the climate during the last years and especially for the near and remote future. Floodings, landslides, snow avalanches and storms belong to the natural hazards that highly impact Austria's socio-economic and environmental systems. In addition to already applied empirical regional modeling at ZAMG there was started dynamical regional climate modeling (RCM) with the COSMOS-CLM (CCLM, http://www.clm-community.eu/) at ZAMG in 2009. The main objective of the Austrian national project "reclip:century" (in cooperation with other Austrian Institutes) is to provide high resolved data sets of climate simulations for the GAR. A one-way double nesting approach is used. The domain used in the first step is Europe with a spatial resolution of 0.44° (50km). Within this simulation the GAR domain is nested having a resolution of 0.09° (10km). The output of these simulations will be evaluated within the project EVACLIM. This is to be done by comparing the output with a variety of regional scale observational datasets. The results of the simulations will be made available to the impact community. Within the international based project HABIT-CHANGE 10km-resolution climate scenarios will be generated. The data sets produced for two different regions the GAR and the Danube Delta - shall be used as a basis for the work of hydrology modelers and for the development of strategies for adaptation and mitigation Based on the CCLM simulations at ZAMG of about 0.03° (4km) spatial resolution for the Northeast of Austria, the project DISTURBANCE aims to develop integrated models for temperate Alpine forest ecosystems. Important tasks for the forest modeling are not only the assessment of changes in temperature, drought and windstorms but also the interactions between wind damages and bark beetle development which might impact the forest structure and its composition of species. In the project DATAPHEN

  2. The impact of a model-based clinical regional registry for attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder.

    PubMed

    Zanetti, Michele; Cartabia, Massimo; Didoni, Anna; Fortinguerra, Filomena; Reale, Laura; Mondini, Matteo; Bonati, Maurizio

    2016-03-17

    This article describes the development and clinical impact of the Italian Regional ADHD Registry, aimed at collecting and monitoring diagnostic and therapeutic pathways of care for attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder children and adolescents, launched by the Italian Lombardy Region in June 2011. In particular, the model-based software used to run the registry and manage clinical care data acquisition and monitoring, is described. This software was developed using the PROSAFE programme, which is already used for data collection in many Italian intensive care units, as a stand-alone interface case report form. The use of the attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder regional registry led to an increase in the appropriateness of the clinical management of all patients included in the registry, proving to be an important instrument in ensuring an appropriate healthcare strategy for children and adolescents with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

  3. CLIMATE IMPACTS ON REGIONAL WATER. A REPORT OF THE NEW ENGLAND REGIONAL ASSESSMENT GROUP FOR THE US GLOBAL CHANGE RESEACH PROGRAM

    EPA Science Inventory

    The New England Region is not considered limited by water availability. While the region was impacted by a serious drought during the mid-1960s, overall, images of a vast network of lush green forests and inviting waterways, extensive shorelines, and a landscape of mountain strea...

  4. Territorial Impact Assessment for European regions: A methodological proposal and an application to EU transport policy.

    PubMed

    Camagni, Roberto

    2009-11-01

    The need to engage European research and institutions in the new field of Territorial Impact Assessment, from both a methodological and a procedural perspective, was stated some years ago by the European Spatial Development Perspective (ESDP). The necessity of multidimensional evaluation of the likely impact of policies and programmes on the territory - understood as the dimension on which all the other relevant dimensions (economic, social, environmental and cultural) converge and with which they integrate - emerged as a natural consequence of the importance of spatial aspects in the future development of the Union and of widespread preoccupations about certain emerging spatial trends. A proposal for a TIA methodology combining logical consistency vis-à-vis the Union's present institutional and policy guidelines with operational viability is being developed and applied to Trans-European Networks policy of the EU. Territorial impact is linked to an innovative definition of the objective of "territorial cohesion" of the Treaties in terms of territorial efficiency, quality and identity. Utilising sectoral impact studies developed inside the ESPON programme and developing territorial indicators for impact, vulnerability and desirability (territorial utility functions), a multicriteria model (TEQUILA) is implemented on priority projects as defined by the Commission, and results mapped and described for the 1360 NUTS-3 regions of the Union.

  5. Impacts of irrigation on regional water resources in the coupled climate system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Puma, M. J.; Krakauer, N.; Cook, B.; Gentine, P.; Nazarenko, L.; Kelley, M.

    2015-12-01

    Widespread irrigation alters regional climate through changes to the energy and water budgets of the land surface. Within general circulation models (GCMs), simulation studies have revealed regionally significant changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. These irrigation impacts are especially notable in key water stressed regions of Asia, western North America, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East. Here we investigate the feedbacks of irrigation with a focus on regional water availability in model simulations. We use two GCM configurations, with and without irrigation, to understand irrigation-induced changes in regional water balances. Importantly, while most other GCM irrigation analyses have focused on monthly changes, we explore changes in daily climate variables. Our simulations reveal shifts in runoff that vary dramatically by region. For example, California's Central Valley experiences substantial shifts in daily runoff, while runoff is relatively insensitive to irrigation in the Ganges-Brahmaputra basin. It is important to understand such feedbacks, as we face a future with great uncertainty in water-resource availability.

  6. Regional Climate Change Scenarios for Mexico and Potential Impacts on Rainfed Maize Agriculture.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conde, C.; Estrada, F.; Martínez, B.; Sánchez, O.; Monterroso, A.; Rosales, G.; Gay, C.

    2010-03-01

    Regional climate change scenarios that were used to assess the potential impacts on different sectors in Mexico are presented, with an application of those scenarios for the agricultural sector. The results of that research were delivered to the Mexican government for the development of the Mexican Fourth National Communication, which will be presented to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). To generate regional climate change scenarios the models and criteria suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fourth Assessment Report (4AR) were applied. Those criteria are: Consistency with global projections, Physical plausibility, Applicability in impact assessments, Representative of the potential range of changes in the future, Accessibility for the users of impacts assessments. The regional scenarios that were generated focus mainly on the applicability and accessibility criteria. A kick-off meeting was held at the beginning of the research work for the Fourth National Communication, to ensure that those criteria were fulfilled. Specifically, a set of climate change scenarios was generated using the outputs for temperature and precipitation of three General Circulation Models (GCMs): ECHAM5, HADGEM1 y GFDL CM2.0, for the horizons 2030 and 2050, and for the emission scenarios A1B, A2, B2 y B1. Those scenarios can be found in our web page in a low spatial resolution (2.5 º x 2.5º), and with high resolution (5’ x 5’). To assess the potential impacts on rainfed maize agriculture, the changes of the suitability of different regions in the country were evaluated, considering maize temperature and precipitation requirements at its different stages of development. Four categories of suitability (high, moderated, marginal, and no suitable) were characterized for current and future climatic conditions. Using the A2 and B2 emission scenarios, the three GCMs and the horizon 2050, results showed that around 67% of

  7. Climate change and its potential impacts on the Gulf Coast region of the United States.

    PubMed

    Tchounwou, P B

    1999-01-01

    The Gulf Coast region of the United States abuts five states, including Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas. In general, the Gulf of Mexico has a surface area of 1.63 million square kilometers (630,000 square miles) and a watershed area of 4.69 million square kilometers (1.81 million square miles) in the United States. This region is one of the nation's largest ecological systems and is closely linked to a significant portion of the nation's economy. In the Gulf Coast region, energy, fisheries, agriculture, and tourism rank among the most significant sectors of the economy. The Gulf has five of the top ten fishing ports in the United States, and commercial fisheries in the Gulf annually produce nearly 2 billion tons of fish, oysters, shrimps, and crabs. Gulf ports handle one-half of the nation's import-export tonnage. Petroleum produced in the Gulf represents about 80% of the nation's offshore production. The Gulf Coast region largely relies on many natural resources to fuel many important sectors of its economy. But nevertheless, the health and vitality of the Gulf have declined in recent years, caused in part by increasing populations along its coast and the growing demand upon its resources and in part by the accumulation of years of careless depletion, abuse, and neglect of the environment. Equally important are the impacts of natural and human-induced climate change on the economy and on the quality of life for millions of people living in the Gulf Coast region. The results have generated alarming increases in damage to and destruction of the ecosystems and habitats of the Gulf. This paper reviews the nature of global environmental change and addresses the potential health and environmental impacts that may occur in the Gulf Coast region of the United States as a consequence of various environmental alterations resulting from global change.

  8. Investigating Sustainability Impacts of Bioenergy Usage Within the Eisenwurzen Region in Austria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Putzhuber, F.; Hasenauer, H.

    2009-04-01

    Within the past few years sustainability and bioenergy usage become a key term in emphasizing the relationship between economic progress and the protection of the environment. One key difficulty is the definition of criteria and indicators for assessing sustainability issues and their change over time. This work introduces methods to create linear parametric models of the sustainable impact issues relevant in the establishment of new bio-energetic heating systems. Our application example is the Eisenwurzen region in Austria. The total area covers 5743 km km² and includes 99 municipalities. A total of 11 impact issues covering the economic, social and environmental areas are proposed for developing the linear parametric models. The indicator selection for deriving the impact issues is based on public official data from 68 indicators, as well as stakeholder interviews and the impact assessment framework. In total we obtained 415 variables from the 99 municipalities to create the 68 indicators for the Local Administration Unit 2 (LAU2) over the last (if available) 25 years. The 68 indicators are on a relative scale to address the size differences of the municipalities. The idea of the analysis is to create linear models which derive 11 defined impact issues related to the establishment of new bio-energetic heating systems. Each analysis follows a strict statistical procedure based on (i) independent indicator selection, (ii) remove indicators with higher VIF value grater then 6, (iii) remove indicators with α higher than 0,05, (iv) possible linear transformation, (v) remove the non-significant indicators (p-value >0,05), (vi) model valuation, (vii) remove the out-lines plots and (viii) test of the normality distribution of the residual with a Kolmogorov- Smirnov test. The results suggest that for the 11 sustainable impact issues 21 of the 68 indicators are significant drives. The models revealed that it is possible to create tools for assessing impact issues in a

  9. Quantification of Road Network Vulnerability and Traffic Impacts to Regional Landslide Hazards.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Postance, Benjamin; Hillier, John; Dixon, Neil; Dijkstra, Tom

    2015-04-01

    Slope instability represents a prevalent hazard to transport networks. In the UK regional road networks are frequently disrupted by multiple slope failures triggered during intense precipitation events; primarily due to a degree of regional homogeneity of slope materials, geomorphology and weather conditions. It is of interest to examine how different locations and combinations of slope failure impact road networks, particularly in the context of projected climate change and a 40% increase in UK road demand by 2040. In this study an extensive number (>50 000) of multiple failure event scenarios are simulated within a dynamic micro simulation to assess traffic impacts during peak flow (7 - 10 AM). Possible failure locations are selected within the county of Gloucestershire (3150 km2) using historic failure sites and British Geological Survey GeoSure data. Initial investigations employ a multiple linear regression analyses to consider the severity of traffic impacts, as measured by time, in respect of spatial and topographical network characteristics including connectivity, density and capacity in proximity to failure sites; the network distance between disruptions in multiple failure scenarios is used to consider the effects of spatial clustering. The UK Department of Transport road travel demand and UKCP09 weather projection data to 2080 provide a suitable basis for traffic simulations and probabilistic slope stability assessments. Future work will thus focus on the development of a catastrophe risk model to simulate traffic impacts under various narratives of future travel demand and slope instability under climatic change. The results of this investigation shall contribute to the understanding of road network vulnerabilities and traffic impacts from climate driven slope hazards.

  10. Isoprene and monoterpenes biogenic emissions in France: modeling and impact during a regional pollution episode

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solmon, Fabien; Sarrat, Claire; Serça, Dominique; Tulet, Pierre; Rosset, Robert

    Biogenic emission of isoprene and monoterpenes are modeled in order to study their impact on regional atmospheric chemistry and pollution in France. First, an emission potential inventory is developed using a fine scale landuse database, forest composition statistics, biometric data and species emission factors. Considering the main emission patterns, the results show consistency with previously published European and global inventories. When downscaling to sub-region of France, this database is likely to provide refined sources distribution, an important issue for regional atmospheric chemistry studies. The temporal evolution of biogenic fluxes with meteorological conditions is calculated on line in the MesoNH-C meso-scale atmospheric chemistry model. Leaf-level algorithms are integrated at the ecosystem scale using sub-grid prognostic surface temperature and canopy shading effects. Finally, ecosystem to landscape integration is performed by aggregating biogenic fluxes at the model grid cell scale. Uncertainties associated with these estimations are discussed with respect to different spatial scales. In the second part of the paper, these developments are used to study biogenic emission impacts on regional ozone formation. We focus on a summer pollution event over Paris and northern France, documented during the ESQUIF experiment. The introduction of biogenic fluxes led to an increase in simulated surface ozone concentrations, reaching 18-30% in the Paris plume and about 20-30% in some rural areas. This impact was mainly due to large biogenic fluxes as well as to the chemical conditions prevailing in the anthropogenic plumes reaching biogenic sources. In this situation, some comparisons with air quality measurements pointed out an improvement of simulated ozone concentrations when accounting for biogenic fluxes, both in urban plumes and over rural areas.

  11. The impacts of land use, radiative forcing, and biological changes on regional climate in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dairaku, K.; Pielke, R. A., Sr.

    2013-12-01

    Because regional responses of surface hydrological and biogeochemical changes are particularly complex, it is necessary to develop assessment tools for regional scale adaptation to climate. We developed a dynamical downscaling method using the regional climate model (NIED-RAMS) over Japan. The NIED-RAMS model includes a plant model that considers biological processes, the General Energy and Mass Transfer Model (GEMTM) which adds spatial resolution to accurately assess critical interactions within the regional climate system for vulnerability assessments to climate change. We digitalized a potential vegetation map that formerly existed only on paper into Geographic Information System data. It quantified information on the reduction of green spaces and the expansion of urban and agricultural areas in Japan. We conducted regional climate sensitivity experiments of land use and land cover (LULC) change, radiative forcing, and biological effects by using the NIED-RAMS with horizontal grid spacing of 20 km. We investigated regional climate responses in Japan for three experimental scenarios: 1. land use and land cover is changed from current to potential vegetation; 2. radiative forcing is changed from 1 x CO2 to 2 x CO2; and 3. biological CO2 partial pressures in plants are doubled. The experiments show good accuracy in reproducing the surface air temperature and precipitation. The experiments indicate the distinct change of hydrological cycles in various aspects due to anthropogenic LULC change, radiative forcing, and biological effects. The relative impacts of those changes are discussed and compared. Acknowledgments This study was conducted as part of the research subject "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Hazard Assessed Using Regional Climate Scenarios in the Tokyo Region' (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention; PI: Koji Dairaku) of Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA), and was supported by the

  12. Impact of Interacting Functional Variants in COMT on Regional Gray Matter Volume in Human Brain

    PubMed Central

    Honea, Robyn; Verchinski, Beth A.; Pezawas, Lukas; Kolachana, Bhaskar S.; Callicott, Joseph H.; Mattay, Venkata S.; Weinberger, Daniel R.; Meyer-Lindenberg, Andreas

    2009-01-01

    Background Functional variants in the catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) gene have been shown to impact cognitive function, cortical physiology and risk for schizophrenia. A recent study showed that previously reported effects of the functional val158met SNP (rs4680) on brain function are modified by other functional SNPs and haplotypes in the gene, though it was unknown if these effects are also seen in brain structure. Methods We used voxel-based morphometry to investigate the impact of multiple functional variants in COMT on gray matter volume in a large group of 151 healthy volunteers from the CBDB/NIMH Genetic Study of Schizophrenia. Results We found that the previously described rs4680 val risk variant affects hippocampal and dorsolateral prefrontal (DLPFC) gray matter volume. In addition, we found that this SNP interacts with a variant in the P2 promoter region (rs2097603) in predicting changes in hippocampal gray matter volume consistent with a nonlinear effect of extracellular dopamine. Conclusions We report evidence that interacting functional variants in COMT affect gray matter regional volume in hippocampus and DLPFC, providing further in vivo validation of the biological impact of complex genetic variation in COMT on neural systems relevant for the pathophysiology of schizophrenia and extending observations of nonlinear dependence of prefrontal neurons on extracellular dopamine to the domain of human brain structure. PMID:19071221

  13. Black Carbon Emissions and Impacts on the South American Glacial Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molina, L. T.; Gallardo, L.; Schmitt, C. G.

    2015-12-01

    Black carbon is one of the key short-lived climate pollutants, which is a topic of growing interest for near-term mitigation of climate change and air quality improvement. In this presentation we will examine the emissions and impact of black carbon and co-pollutants on the South American glacial region and describe some recent measurements associated with the PISAC (Pollution and its Impacts on the South American Cryosphere) Initiative. The Andes is the longest continental mountain range in the world, extending about 7000 km along western South America through seven countries with complex topography and covering several climate zones, diversity of ecosystems and communities. Air pollution associated with biomass burning and urban emissions affects extensive areas in the region and is a serious public health concern. Scientific evidence indicates that the Andean cryosphere is changing rapidly as snow fields and glaciers generally recede, leading to changes in stream flow and water quality along the Andes. The challenge is to identify the principal causes of the observed changes so that action can be taken to mitigate this negative trend. Despite the paucity of systematic observations along the Andes, a few modeling and observational studies have indicated the presence of black carbon in the high Andes, with potentially significant impact on the Andean cryosphere.

  14. Elucidating hydraulic fracturing impacts on groundwater quality using a regional geospatial statistical modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Burton, Taylour G; Rifai, Hanadi S; Hildenbrand, Zacariah L; Carlton, Doug D; Fontenot, Brian E; Schug, Kevin A

    2016-03-01

    Hydraulic fracturing operations have been viewed as the cause of certain environmental issues including groundwater contamination. The potential for hydraulic fracturing to induce contaminant pathways in groundwater is not well understood since gas wells are completed while isolating the water table and the gas-bearing reservoirs lay thousands of feet below the water table. Recent studies have attributed ground water contamination to poor well construction and leaks in the wellbore annulus due to ruptured wellbore casings. In this paper, a geospatial model of the Barnett Shale region was created using ArcGIS. The model was used for spatial analysis of groundwater quality data in order to determine if regional variations in groundwater quality, as indicated by various groundwater constituent concentrations, may be associated with the presence of hydraulically fractured gas wells in the region. The Barnett Shale reservoir pressure, completions data, and fracture treatment data were evaluated as predictors of groundwater quality change. Results indicated that elevated concentrations of certain groundwater constituents are likely related to natural gas production in the study area and that beryllium, in this formation, could be used as an indicator variable for evaluating fracturing impacts on regional groundwater quality. Results also indicated that gas well density and formation pressures correlate to change in regional water quality whereas proximity to gas wells, by itself, does not. The results also provided indirect evidence supporting the possibility that micro annular fissures serve as a pathway transporting fluids and chemicals from the fractured wellbore to the overlying groundwater aquifers.

  15. Progress and prospects of climate change impacts on hydrology in the arid region of northwest China.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yaning; Li, Zhi; Fan, Yuting; Wang, Huaijun; Deng, Haijun

    2015-05-01

    The arid region of Northwest China, located in the central Asia, responds sensitively to global climate change. Based on the newest research results, this paper analyzes the impacts of climate change on hydrology and the water cycle in the arid region of Northwest China. The analysis results show that: (1) In the northwest arid region, temperature and precipitation experienced "sharply" increasing in the past 50 years. The precipitation trend changed in 1987, and since then has been in a state of high volatility, during the 21st century, the increasing rate of precipitation was diminished. Temperature experienced a "sharply" increase in 1997; however, this sharp increasing trend has turned to an apparent hiatus since the 21st century. The dramatic rise in winter temperatures in the northwest arid region is an important reason for the rise in the average annual temperature, and substantial increases in extreme winter minimum temperature play an important role in the rising average winter temperature; (2) There was a significant turning point in the change of pan evaporation in the northwest arid area in 1993, i.e., in which a significant decline reversed to a significant upward trend. In the 21st century, the negative effects of global warming and increasing levels of evaporation on the ecology of the northwest arid region have been highlighted; (3) Glacier change has a significant impact on hydrology in the northwest arid area, and glacier inflection points have appeared in some rivers. The melting water supply of the Tarim River Basin possesses a large portion of water supplies (about 50%). In the future, the amount of surface water will probably remain at a high state of fluctuation.

  16. Numerical investigation for the impact of CO2 geologic sequestration on regional groundwater flow

    SciTech Connect

    Yamamoto, H.; Zhang, K.; Karasaki, K.; Marui, A.; Uehara, H.; Nishikawa, N.

    2009-04-15

    Large-scale storage of carbon dioxide in saline aquifers may cause considerable pressure perturbation and brine migration in deep rock formations, which may have a significant influence on the regional groundwater system. With the help of parallel computing techniques, we conducted a comprehensive, large-scale numerical simulation of CO{sub 2} geologic storage that predicts not only CO{sub 2} migration, but also its impact on regional groundwater flow. As a case study, a hypothetical industrial-scale CO{sub 2} injection in Tokyo Bay, which is surrounded by the most heavily industrialized area in Japan, was considered, and the impact of CO{sub 2} injection on near-surface aquifers was investigated, assuming relatively high seal-layer permeability (higher than 10 microdarcy). A regional hydrogeological model with an area of about 60 km x 70 km around Tokyo Bay was discretized into about 10 million gridblocks. To solve the high-resolution model efficiently, we used a parallelized multiphase flow simulator TOUGH2-MP/ECO2N on a world-class high performance supercomputer in Japan, the Earth Simulator. In this simulation, CO{sub 2} was injected into a storage aquifer at about 1 km depth under Tokyo Bay from 10 wells, at a total rate of 10 million tons/year for 100 years. Through the model, we can examine regional groundwater pressure buildup and groundwater migration to the land surface. The results suggest that even if containment of CO{sub 2} plume is ensured, pressure buildup on the order of a few bars can occur in the shallow confined aquifers over extensive regions, including urban inlands.

  17. Improving plot- and regional-scale crop models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, F.; Rötter, R.

    2013-12-01

    Many studies on global climate report that climate variability is increasing with more frequent and intense extreme events1. There are quite large uncertainties from both the plot- and regional-scale models in simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes on crop development, growth and productivity2,3. One key to reducing the uncertainties is better exploitation of experimental data to eliminate crop model deficiencies and develop better algorithms that more adequately capture the impacts of extreme events, such as high temperature and drought, on crop performance4,5. In the present study, in a first step, the inter-annual variability in wheat yield and climate from 1971 to 2012 in Finland was investigated. Using statistical approaches the impacts of climate variability and extremes on wheat growth and productivity were quantified. In a second step, a plot-scale model, WOFOST6, and a regional-scale crop model, MCWLA7, were calibrated and validated, and applied to simulate wheat growth and yield variability from 1971-2012. Next, the estimated impacts of high temperature stress, cold damage, and drought stress on crop growth and productivity based on the statistical approaches, and on crop simulation models WOFOST and MCWLA were compared. Then, the impact mechanisms of climate extremes on crop growth and productivity in the WOFOST model and MCWLA model were identified, and subsequently, the various algorithm and impact functions were fitted against the long-term crop trial data. Finally, the impact mechanisms, algorithms and functions in WOFOST model and MCWLA model were improved to better simulate the impacts of climate variability and extremes, particularly high temperature stress, cold damage and drought stress for location-specific and large area climate impact assessments. Our studies provide a good example of how to improve, in parallel, the plot- and regional-scale models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes, as needed for

  18. An analysis of the impacts of global climate and emissions changes on regional tropospheric ozone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    John, Kuruvilla; Crist, Kevin C.; Carmichael, Gregory R.

    1994-01-01

    Many of the synergistic impacts resulting from future changes in emissions as well as changes in ambient temperature, moisture, and UV flux have not been quantified. A three-dimensional regional-scale photo-chemical model (STEM-2) is used in this study to evaluate these perturbations to trace gas cycles over the eastern half of the United States of America. The model was successfully used to simulate a regional-scale ozone episode (base case - June 1984) and four perturbations scenarios - viz., perturbed emissions, temperature, water vapor column, and incoming UV flux cases, and a future scenario (for the year 2034). The impact of these perturbation scenarios on the distribution of ozone and other major pollutants such as SO2 and sulfates were analyzed in detail. The spatial distribution and the concentration of ozone at the surface increased by about 5-15 percent for most cases except for the perturbed water vapor case. The regional scale surface ozone concentration distribution for the year 2034 (future scenario) showed an increase of non-attainment areas. The rural areas of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Georgia showed the largest change in the surface ozone field for the futuristic scenario when compared to the base case.

  19. Impact of external industrial sources on the regional and local air quality of Mexico Megacity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Almanza, V. H.; Molina, L. T.; Li, G.; Fast, J.; Sosa, G.

    2013-10-01

    The air quality of megacities can be influenced by external emissions sources on both global and regional scale, and at the same time their outflow emissions can exert an important impact to the surrounding environment. The present study evaluates an SO2 peak observed on 24 March 2006 at the suburban supersite T1 and ambient air quality monitoring stations located in the north region of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) during MILAGRO campaign. We found that this peak could be related to an important episodic emission event from Tizayuca region, northeast of the MCMA. Back trajectories analyses suggest that the emission event started in the early morning at 04:00 LST and lasted for about 9 h. The estimated emission rate is noticeably high, about 2 kg s-1. This finding suggests the possibility of "overlooked" emission sources in this region that could influence the air quality of the MCMA. This further motivated us to study the cement plants, including those in the State of Hidalgo and in the State of Mexico, and we found that they can contribute in the NE region of the basin (about 41.7%), at the suburban supersite T1 (41.23%) and at some monitoring stations their contribution can be even higher than from the Tula Industrial Complex. The contribution of Tula Industrial Complex to regional ozone levels is estimated. The model suggests low contribution to the MCMA (1 ppb to 4 ppb) and slightly higher at the suburban T1 (6 ppb) and rural T2 (5 ppb) supersites. However, the contribution could be as high as 10 ppb in the upper northwest region of the basin and in the southwest and south-southeast regions of State of Hidalgo. In addition, a first estimate of the potential contribution from flaring activities to regional ozone levels is presented. Emission rates are estimated with a CFD combustion model. Results suggest that up to 30% of the total regional ozone from TIC could be related to flaring activities. Finally, the influence in SO2 levels from technological

  20. Examining Impact of Global warming on the summer monsoon system using regional Climate Model (PRECIS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patwardhan, S. K.; Kundeti, K.; Krishna Kumar, K.

    2011-12-01

    Every year, southwest monsoon arrives over Indian region with remarkable regularity. It hits the southern state of Kerala first by the end of May or the early June. More than 70% of the annual precipitation is received during the four monsoon months viz. June to September. This monsoon rainfall is vital for the agriculture as well as for the yearly needs of Indian population. The performance of the monsoon depends on the timely onset over southern tip of India and its progress along the entire country. This northward progression of monsoon to cover the entire Indian landmass, many times, is associated with the formation of synoptic scale system in the Bay of Bengal region and their movement along the monsoon trough region. The analysis of the observed cyclonic disturbances show that their frequency has reduced in recent decades. It is, therefore, necessary to assess the effect of global warming on the monsoon climate of India. A state-of-art regional climate modelling system, known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, U.K. is applied over the South Asian domain to investigate the impact of global warming on the cyclonic disturbances. The PRECIS simulations at 50 km x 50 km horizontal resolution are made for two time slices, present (1961-1990) and the future (2071-2100), for two socio-economic scenarios A2 and B2. The model skills are evaluated using observed precipitation and surface air temperature. The model has shown reasonably good skill in simulating seasonal monsoon rainfall, whereas cold bias is seen in surface air temperature especially in post-monsoon months. The typical monsoon features like monsoon trough, precipitation maxima over west coast and northeast India are well simulated by the model. The model simulations under the scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosols are analysed to study the likely changes in the quasi

  1. Local and Regional Scale Impacts of Arctic Shipping Emissions Off the Coast of Northern Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marelle, L.; Thomas, J. L.; Law, K.; Raut, J. C.; Jalkanen, J. P.; Johansson, L.; Roiger, A.; Schlager, H.; Kim, J.; Reiter, A.; Weinzierl, B.; Rose, M.

    2014-12-01

    Decreased sea ice extent due to warming has already resulted in the use of new shipping routes through the Arctic. Marine traffic is a source of air pollutants, including NOx, SO2, and aerosols, and is predicted to be an increasingly significant source of Arctic pollution in the future. Currently there are large uncertainties in both global and Arctic shipping emissions, leading to uncertainties in diagnosing current and future impacts of marine traffic on Arctic air quality and climate. This study focuses on the local scale, examining chemical/aerosol transformations occurring in individual ship plumes. Measurements of ship pollution in the Arctic taken during the EU ACCESS aircraft campaign (Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society) in July 2012 are used to quantify the amount of pollution emitted from different ship types. This is combined with regional model (WRF-Chem) simulations to evaluate the impacts of shipping in northern Norway in summer 2012. The model is run at high resolution (2x2 km) combined with STEAMv2 (Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model version 2) emissions (1x1 km, 15 minute resolution) produced for shipping activity during the measurement period. WRF-Chem model results are compared with 3 ship plumes sampled during ACCESS. The model shows that both the location and total amount of pollution in individual ship plumes are correctly represented. Given this, the model is used to investigate the regional influence of ship pollution off the coast of Norway on a weekly time scale during July 2012, focusing on ozone photochemistry in ship plumes, the evolution of aerosols, and investigating the fate of black carbon emitted from ships. We compare regional modeling results obtained using 15 minute resolution STEAMv2 emissions with results using weekly averaged emissions, which are more representative of emissions typically used by global models to study the impacts of shipping on air quality and climate.

  2. Evaluating aggregate terrestrial impacts of road construction projects for advanced regional mitigation.

    PubMed

    Thorne, James H; Girvetz, Evan H; McCoy, Michael C

    2009-05-01

    This study presents a GIS-based database framework used to assess aggregate terrestrial habitat impacts from multiple highway construction projects in California, USA. Transportation planners need such impact assessment tools to effectively address additive biological mitigation obligations. Such assessments can reduce costly delays due to protracted environmental review. This project incorporated the best available statewide natural resource data into early project planning and preliminary environmental assessments for single and multiple highway construction projects, and provides an assessment of the 10-year state-wide mitigation obligations for the California Department of Transportation. Incorporation of these assessments will facilitate early and more strategic identification of mitigation opportunities, for single-project and regional mitigation efforts. The data architecture format uses eight spatial scales: six nested watersheds, counties, and transportation planning districts, which were intersected. This resulted in 8058 map planning units statewide, which were used to summarize all subsequent analyses. Range maps and georeferenced locations of federally and state-listed plants and animals and a 55-class landcover map were spatially intersected with the planning units and the buffered spatial footprint of 967 funded projects. Projected impacts were summarized and output to the database. Queries written in the database can sum expected impacts and provide summaries by individual construction project, or by watershed, county, transportation district or highway. The data architecture allows easy incorporation of new information and results in a tool usable without GIS by a wide variety of agency biologists and planners. The data architecture format would be useful for other types of regional planning.

  3. Considerations about gust wind thresholds related to social impact: study of different regions in Catalonia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barberia, Laura; Amaro, Jéssica; Aran, Montserrat; Llasat, Maria del Carmen

    2016-04-01

    Severe weather events can cause several damages on a territory and its population, affecting urban infrastructure and housing, among others. In particular, wind is one of the most important phenomena which cause remarkable economic losses. Since 2008, different studies conducted by the Social Impact Research Group, in the frame of HYMEX project, determined that requests related to damage claims which are received in Meteorological Services are a good proxy indicator of social impact. However, the strong wind studies took into account a unique threshold, which proved to be insufficient. It was found that it was necessary to define a threshold for each area, according to its vulnerability and exposure. Therefore, the aim of this study is to define, for each county in Catalonia, thresholds of gust wind speed for which a remarkable social impact is observed. To accomplish this, the database of requests received in the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) between 2011 and 2015 has been used. For each request, the most representative automatic weather stations are associated. Statistical treatments of the gust wind data recorded by these stations have been carried out in order to determine which values are related to social impact. As an example, one of the first results shows that in a populated area like Barcelona, the average gust is approximately 70 km/h. On the contrary, in other less populated counties and usually more exposed to strong winds, the mean is over 85 km/h. Besides, the relation between gusts and requests has been analyzed to detect significant slope changes. In general, it has been detected an increase of requests at certain gust wind values. These results, which vary depending on the region's vulnerability and exposure, could be used to establish new thresholds for Civil Protection alarms. Therefore, a higher accuracy by region will be reached.

  4. Impacts of crop growth dynamics on soil quality at the regional scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gobin, Anne

    2014-05-01

    Agricultural land use and in particular crop growth dynamics can greatly affect soil quality. Both the amount of soil lost from erosion by water and soil organic matter are key indicators for soil quality. The aim was to develop a modelling framework for quantifying the impacts of crop growth dynamics on soil quality at the regional scale with test case Flanders. A framework for modelling the impacts of crop growth on soil erosion and soil organic matter was developed by coupling the dynamic crop cover model REGCROP (Gobin, 2010) to the PESERA soil erosion model (Kirkby et al., 2009) and to the RothC carbon model (Coleman and Jenkinson, 1999). All three models are process-based, spatially distributed and intended as a regional diagnostic tool. A geo-database was constructed covering 10 years of crop rotation in Flanders using the IACS parcel registration (Integrated Administration and Control System). Crop allometric models were developed from variety trials to calculate crop residues for common crops in Flanders and subsequently derive stable organic matter fluxes to the soil. Results indicate that crop growth dynamics and crop rotations influence soil quality for a very large percentage. soil erosion mainly occurs in the southern part of Flanders, where silty to loamy soils and a hilly topography are responsible for soil loss rates of up to 40 t/ha. Parcels under maize, sugar beet and potatoes are most vulnerable to soil erosion. Crop residues of grain maize and winter wheat followed by catch crops contribute most to the total carbon sequestered in agricultural soils. For the same rotations carbon sequestration is highest on clay soils and lowest on sandy soils. This implies that agricultural policies that impact on agricultural land management influence soil quality for a large percentage. The coupled REGCROP-PESERA-ROTHC model allows for quantifying the impact of seasonal and year-to-year crop growth dynamics on soil quality. When coupled to a multi-annual crop

  5. Regional assessment of Climate change impacts in the Mediterranean: the CIRCE project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iglesias, A.

    2011-12-01

    The CIRCE project has developed for the first time an assessment of the climate change impacts in the Mediterranean area. The objectives of the project are: to predict and to quantify physical impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean area; to evaluate the consequences of climate change for the society and the economy of the populations located in the Mediterranean area; to develop an integrated approach to understand combined effects of climate change; and to identify adaptation and mitigation strategies in collaboration with regional stakeholders. The CIRCE Project, coordinated by the Instituto Nazionale di Geofisca e Vulcanologia, started on 1st April 2007 and ended in a policy conference in Rome on June 2011. CIRCE involves 64 partners from Europe, Middle East and North Africa working together to evaluate the best strategies of adaptation to the climate change in the Mediterranean basin. CIRCE wants to understand and to explain how climate will change in the Mediterranean area bringing together the natural sciences community and social community in a new integrated and comprehensive way. The project has investigated how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how the radiative properties of the atmosphere and the radiative fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle. Recent observed modifications in the climate variables and detected trends will be compared. The economic and social consequences of climate change are evaluated by analysing direct impacts on migration, tourism and energy markets together with indirect impacts on the economic system. CIRCE has produced results about the consequences on agriculture, forests and ecosystems, human health and air quality. The variability of extreme events in the future scenario and their impacts is also assessed. A rigorous common framework, including a set of quantitative indicators developed specifically for the Mediterranean environment was be developed

  6. The impact of newspaper advertising on a regional antenatal health campaign.

    PubMed

    Berry, J M

    1984-01-01

    In 1981 the West Midlands Health services undertook a publicity campaign aimed at helping women to understand more about keeping healthy during pregnancy and encouraging them to seek early ante-natal care. A series of full page advertisements on ante-natal care were placed in local newspapers in the Region. Set out here are the findings of two studies of the impact of the publicity campaign. The first shows how far people's knowledge of what to do during pregnancy was altered by the publicity, and the second shows what people thought of the advertisements themselves and the further information sent to them on request.

  7. Regional analysis of drought and heat impacts on forests: current and future science directions.

    PubMed

    Law, Beverly E

    2014-12-01

    Accurate assessments of forest response to current and future climate and human actions are needed at regional scales. Predicting future impacts on forests will require improved analysis of species-level adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability to mortality. Land system models can be enhanced by creating trait-based groupings of species that better represent climate sensitivity, such as risk of hydraulic failure from drought. This emphasizes the need for more coordinated in situ and remote sensing observations to track changes in ecosystem function, and to improve model inputs, spatio-temporal diagnosis, and predictions of future conditions, including implications of actions to mitigate climate change.

  8. The impact of H2S emissions on future geothermal power generation - The Geysers region, California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leibowitz, L. P.

    1977-01-01

    The future potential for geothermal power generation in the Geysers region of California is as much as 10 times the current 502 MW(e) capacity. However, environmental factors such as H2S emissions and institutional considerations may play the primary role in determining the rate and ultimate level of development. In this paper a scenario of future geothermal generation capacity and H2S emissions in the Geysers region is presented. Problem areas associated with H2S emissions, H2S abatement processes, plant operations, and government agency resources are described. The impact of H2S emissions on future development and the views of effected organizations are discussed. Potential actions needed to remove these constraints are summarized.

  9. [Impact of drinking water calcium and magnesium levels on morbidity in the Omsk Region].

    PubMed

    Erofeev, Iu V; Neskin, T A; Turchaninov, D V

    2006-01-01

    Drinking water calcium and magnesium levels were examined for impact on morbidity in a model rural area of a West Siberian region. It was ascertained that there were negative correlations between the water levels of the above elements and the incidence of respiratory, gastrointestinal, and locomotor diseases and positive correlations between the concentrations of calcium and magnesium and the incidence of nervous, urogenital, and eye diseases. It is concluded that by adjusting the findings, the medical care availability factor should be taken into account in the investigations using the health indices calculated on the data from official medical accounts. This investigation has shown the estimation of the drinking water levels of calcium and magnesium as a significant hygienic problem for a model region.

  10. An observational and modeling study of the regional impacts of climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horton, Radley M.

    Climate variability has large impacts on humans and their agricultural systems. Farmers are at the center of this agricultural network, but it is often agricultural planners---regional planners, extension agents, commodity groups and cooperatives---that translate climate information for users. Global climate models (GCMs) are a leading tool for understanding and predicting climate and climate change. Armed with climate projections and forecasts, agricultural planners adapt their decision-making to optimize outcomes. This thesis explores what GCMs can, and cannot, tell us about climate variability and change at regional scales. The question is important, since high-quality regional climate projections could assist farmers and regional planners in key management decisions, contributing to better agricultural outcomes. To answer these questions, climate variability and its regional impacts are explored in observations and models for the current and future climate. The goals are to identify impacts of observed variability, assess model simulation of variability, and explore how climate variability and its impacts may change under enhanced greenhouse warming. Chapter One explores how well Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) atmospheric models, forced by historical sea surface temperatures (SST), simulate climatology and large-scale features during the exceptionally strong 1997--1999 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Reasonable performance in this 'proof of concept' test is considered a minimum requirement for further study of variability in models. All model versions produce appropriate local changes with ENSO, indicating that with correct ocean temperatures these versions are capable of simulating the large-scale effects of ENSO around the globe. A high vertical resolution model (VHR) provides the best simulation. Evidence is also presented that SST anomalies outside the tropical Pacific may play a key role in generating remote teleconnections even

  11. Assessing the health equity impacts of regional land-use plan making: An equity focussed health impact assessment of alternative patterns of development of the Whitsunday Hinterland and Mackay Regional Plan, Australia (Short report)

    SciTech Connect

    Gunning, Colleen; Harris, Patrick; Mallett, John

    2011-07-15

    Health service and partners completed an equity focussed health impact assessment to influence the consideration of health and equity within regional land-use planning in Queensland, Australia. This project demonstrated how an equity oriented assessment matrix can assist in testing regional planning scenarios. It is hoped that this HIA will contribute to the emerging interest in ensuring that potential differential health impacts continue to be considered as part of land-use planning processes.

  12. Impact of regional meteorology on ozone levels in the Lake Tahoe Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rayne, Sandra; Gertler, Alan; Zielinska, Barbara; Bytnerowicz, Andrzej; Burley, Joel; Kaplan, Michael

    2016-07-01

    The Lake Tahoe Basin is located on the California-Nevada border and occasionally experiences elevated levels of ozone (O3) exceeding the California Air Resources Board ambient air quality standard (8-h average). Previous studies indicate that both the local generation and long-range transport from out-of-basin sources are important in contributing to O3 exceedances, but little is known about the impact of regional meteorology on O3 source regions. To develop a better understanding of the factors affecting O3 levels and sources in the Lake Tahoe Basin, a comprehensive field study was performed in the summer of 2010. Included in this effort was a meteorological analysis addressing potential regional meteorological influences leading to periods of elevated levels of O3. Three approaches were used to conduct the analysis: (1) regional atmospheric pressure difference (i.e., the Washoe Zephyr) to access potential transport, (2) back trajectory modeling using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to determine where the air masses originated and, (3) composite soundings to evaluate in-Basin atmospheric influences. These analyses indicate the Washoe Zephyr did not strongly impact O3 levels; however, higher O3 levels were found to correspond with both a more southerly wind component and a dip in dew point temperature around 400 hPa. The results also indicate that if transport does occur, it is more likely to come from the San Joaquin Valley and move to the southern part of the Basin, rather than originating in the large cities to the west (i.e., Sacramento and San Francisco).

  13. Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.

    2014-12-01

    Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes

  14. Impacts of urbanization on nitrogen deposition in the Pearl River Delta region, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, X.; Fan, Q.

    2015-12-01

    The Pearl River Delta (PRD) region is one of the most advanced economic districts in China, which has experienced remarkable economic development and urbanization in the past two decades. Accompanied with the rapid economy development and urbanization, the PRD region encountered both severe nitrogen pollution and deposition. In this study, the characteristics of nitrogen deposition and impacts of urbanization on nitrogen deposition in the PRD region were investigated by combining the methods of field study and numerical model. According to the field measurements, the total dry and wet atmospheric deposition of reactive N at a urban site (SYSU) was up to 55.0 kg ha-1 yr-1 in 2010, slightly lower than the results at a rural forest site (DHS) (57.6 kg ha-1 yr-1). Wet deposition was the main form of the total deposition (64-76%). Organic nitrogen (ON) was found to be dominant in the total N deposition, with a contribution of 53% at DHS and 42% at SYSU. NH4+-N and NO3--N accounted for a similar portion of the total N deposition (23-29%). Atmospheric nitrogen deposition was further simulated by using the improved WRF-Chem model. The simulated N deposition flux was high in the north of PRD (i.e., Guangzhou, Foshan, Zhaoqing) and relative low in the east (Huizhou) and south (Zhuhai), with an average N deposition flux of about 24 kg ha-1 yr-1 for the whole PRD. The distribution of N dry deposition was mainly controlled by the concentration of reactive N compounds and precipitation governed the wet deposition distribution. The modeling results also indicate that the PRD area is the source region in which the emissions exceed the deposition while the outside area of the PRD is the receptor region in which the deposition exceeds emissions. The impact of emission change and land use change due to urbanization was also investigated using the WRF-Chem model. The results showed that atmospheric N deposition exhibits a direct response to emission change while the land use change

  15. Health impact assessment of marine emissions in Pearl River Delta region.

    PubMed

    Lai, H K; Tsang, H; Chau, J; Lee, C H; McGhee, S M; Hedley, A J; Wong, C M

    2013-01-15

    Global marine vessels emissions are adversely affecting human health particularly in southeast Asia. But health burdens from both ocean- and river-going vessels in Pearl River Delta (PRD) regions are not quantified. We estimated the potential health impacts using pooled relative risks of mortality and hospital admissions in China, and the model derived concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO₂), particulate matter (PM₁₀), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and ozone (O₃) due to vessels emissions. SO₂ concentrations due to marine emissions in Hong Kong were 13.6 μg m⁻³ compared with 0.7 μg m⁻³ in PRD regions that were far from the marine vessels. In PRD regions, the estimated annual numbers (per million people) of excess deaths from all natural causes and hospital admissions from cardiorespiratory causes attributable to SO₂, NO₂, O₃ and PM₁₀ combined from marine emissions were 45 and 265 respectively. Marine emission control measures could contribute a large reduction in mortality and hospital admissions in PRD regions especially in Hong Kong.

  16. Assessing Impact of Aerosol Intercontinental Transport on Regional Air Quality and Climate: What Satellites Can Help

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yu, Hongbin

    2011-01-01

    Mounting evidence for intercontinental transport of aerosols suggests that aerosols from a region could significantly affect climate and air quality in downwind regions and continents. Current assessment of these impacts for the most part has been based on global model simulations that show large variability. The aerosol intercontinental transport and its influence on air quality and climate involve many processes at local, regional, and intercontinental scales. There is a pressing need to establish modeling systems that bridge the wide range of scales. The modeling systems need to be evaluated and constrained by observations, including satellite measurements. Columnar loadings of dust and combustion aerosols can be derived from the MODIS and MISR measurements of total aerosol optical depth and particle size and shape information. Characteristic transport heights of dust and combustion aerosols can be determined from the CALIPSO lidar and AIRS measurements. CALIPSO liar and OMI UV technique also have a unique capability of detecting aerosols above clouds, which could offer some insights into aerosol lofting processes and the importance of above-cloud transport pathway. In this presentation, I will discuss our efforts of integrating these satellite measurements and models to assess the significance of intercontinental transport of dust and combustion aerosols on regional air quality and climate.

  17. Impacts of urban and industrial development on Arctic land surface temperature in Lower Yenisei River Region.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Z.; Shiklomanov, N. I.

    2015-12-01

    Urbanization and industrial development have significant impacts on arctic climate that in turn controls settlement patterns and socio-economic processes. In this study we have analyzed the anthropogenic influences on regional land surface temperature of Lower Yenisei River Region of the Russia Arctic. The study area covers two consecutive Landsat scenes and includes three major cities: Norilsk, Igarka and Dudingka. Norilsk industrial region is the largest producer of nickel and palladium in the world, and Igarka and Dudingka are important ports for shipping. We constructed a spatio-temporal interpolated temperature model by including 1km MODIS LST, field-measured climate, Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), DEM, Landsat NDVI and Landsat Land Cover. Those fore-mentioned spatial data have various resolution and coverage in both time and space. We analyzed their relationships and created a monthly spatio-temporal interpolated surface temperature model at 1km resolution from 1980 to 2010. The temperature model then was used to examine the characteristic seasonal LST signatures, related to several representative assemblages of Arctic urban and industrial infrastructure in order to quantify anthropogenic influence on regional surface temperature.

  18. Industrial emission in a coastal region of India: Prediction of impact on air environment

    SciTech Connect

    Gargava, P.; Aggarwal, A.L.

    1996-08-01

    Industrial air pollution has assumed a menacing proportion in the developing countries, including India. Its control should not be delayed any more. The economic reforms and subsequent industrial development and growing urbanization will aggregate the problem in coming years. Poor land use planning for industrial development often results in the high concentrations of air pollutants in urban centers. This paper discusses the impact of industrial activities on the air environment in a coastal region of India, as a case study. A Gaussian-Plume atmospheric dispersion algorithm has been used to predict the ground level concentration of major pollutants released into the atmosphere due to industrial activities in the region. Typical diurnal variation of Pasquill`s stability and mixing height over the Cochin Region were used. Ground level concentrations (CLC) of major pollutants were predicted from as many as 108 point sources from 15 industries located in the region. A roll-back approach was then applied to compute the degree of emission control required to keep pollution level within the permissible limits of ambient air quality. 10 refs., 6 figs.

  19. The Climaware project: Impacts of climate change on water resources management - regional strategies and European view

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thirel, Guillaume; D'Agostino, Daniela; Démerliac, Stéphane; Dorchies, David; Flörke, Martina; Jay-Allemand, Maxime; Jost, Claudine; Kehr, Katrin; Perrin, Charles; Scardigno, Alessandra; Schneider, Christof; Theobald, Stephan; Träbing, Klaus

    2014-05-01

    Climate projections produced with CMIP5 and applied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its fifth assessment report indicate that changes in precipitation and temperature are expected to occur throughout Europe in the 21th century, with a likely decrease of water availability in many regions. Besides, water demand is also expected to increase, in link with these expected climate modifications, but also due to socio-economic and demographic changes. In this respect, the use of future freshwater resources may not be sustainable from the current water management perspective. Therefore adaptation strategies will most likely be needed to cope with these evolutions. In this context, the main objective of the ClimAware project (2010-2013 - www.uni-kassel.de/fb14/wasserbau/CLIMAWARE/, a project implemented within the IWRM-NET Funding Initiative) was to analyse the impacts of climate change (CC) on freshwater resources at the continental and regional scales and to identify efficient adaptation strategies to improve water management for various socio-economic sectors. This should contribute to a more effective implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and its instruments (river basin management plans, programmes of measures). The project developed integrated measures for improved freshwater management under CC constraints. More specifically, the objectives of the ClimAware project were to: • elaborate quantitative projections of changes in river flows and consequences such as flood frequency, drought occurrence and sectorial water uses. • analyse the effect of CC on the hydromorphological reference conditions of rivers and therefore the definition of "good status". • define management rules/strategies concerning dam management and irrigation practices on different time perspectives. • investigate uncertainties in climate model - scenario combinations. The research approach considered both European and regional perspectives, to get

  20. Potential Impacts of Legacy and Current Uranium Mining in the Grand Canyon Region of Northern Arizona

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bills, D. J.

    2012-12-01

    The Grand Canyon region in Northern Arizona contains high grade uranium resources hosted in geologic features called breccia pipes that represent an important component of the Nation's energy resource base. The exploration and extraction of uranium ore from these deposits poses potential risks to humans and biota of the Grand Canyon watershed. These issues led the Secretary of the Interior to a Record of Decision in January 2012 to withdraw over a million acres of federal lands in the region from mineral entry for the next 20 years. Dissolved uranium and other major ions and trace elements occur naturally in surface water and in groundwater as a result of precipitation infiltrating from the surface to perched water-bearing zones in contact with mineralized breccia pipes or in contact with sandstones with high trace element content, and to underlying regional aquifers. Discharge from these water-bearing zones and aquifers occur as seeps and springs throughout the region and provide valuable habitat and water sources for plants and animals. Runoff and groundwater flow in the Grand Canyon region is also a component of the water supply for over 25 million people in the Southwestern United States. Soil and sediment in the region can naturally contain as much a 5.6 micrograms per gram of uranium and naturally occurring dissolved uranium in groundwater is about 5.0 μg/L or less, except in proximity to uranium ore bodies where it tends to be greater. The current discharge of dissolved uranium from the Grand Canyon region to Lake Mead have concentrations of 4.0 μg/L or less resulting in a total annual load of uranium delivered to Lake Mead of about 60 tons per year. Increased amounts of radioactive materials and trace metals on the surface and in groundwater are related to uranium mining activity in the watershed in the 1970s and 1980s. Monitoring and data collection from 2010 to 2012 confirm this legacy impact in some parts of the Grand Canyon watershed, but have yet to

  1. The Impacts of Chihuahua Desert Aerosol Intrusions on Convective Clouds and Regional Precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Apodaca, Karina

    Growing up in a desert region influenced by a monsoon system and experiencing, first-hand, dust storms produced by convective thunderstorms stimulated my interest in the study of the impacts of aerosols on clouds. Contrary to other studies which focus more on anthropogenic aerosols, I chose to investigate the role of natural aerosols in the deserts of North America. Moreover, the role played by aerosols in desert regions within the North American Monsoon domain has not received as much attention as in other monsoon regions around the world. This dissertation describes my investigation of the connection between mineral aerosols (dust storms) and monsoon rainfall in the deserts of the Southwestern United States and Northwestern Mexico. To develop the context for the study of the role of mineral dust in summer-time convection on a regional scale, large-scale dynamical processes and their impact on the inter-annual variability of monsoon rainfall were analyzed. I developed the climatology of monsoonal rainfall and dust storms using surface observations to determine which mesoscale features influence North American Monsoon rainfall in the Paso Del Norte region. The strongest correlations were found between sea surface temperatures over the Gulf of California, Gulf of California moisture surges and monsoon rainfall in the Paso Del Norte region. A connection to ENSO could not be clearly established despite analyzing twenty-one years of data. However, by breaking the data into segments, a strong correlation was found for periods of intense rainfall. Twenty-one case studies were identified in which dust storms were produced in conjunction with thunderstorms during the 2005 - 2007 monsoon seasons. However, in some cases all the conditions were there for rainfall to occur but it did not precipitate. I concluded that strong thunderstorm outflow was triggering dust storms. The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem V3.1.1) was used to evaluate

  2. The Impact of Varying Statutory Arrangements on Spatial Data Sharing and Access in Regional NRM Bodies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paudyal, D. R.; McDougall, K.; Apan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Spatial information plays an important role in many social, environmental and economic decisions and increasingly acknowledged as a national resource essential for wider societal and environmental benefits. Natural Resource Management is one area where spatial information can be used for improved planning and decision making processes. In Australia, state government organisations are the custodians of spatial information necessary for natural resource management and regional NRM bodies are responsible to regional delivery of NRM activities. The access and sharing of spatial information between government agencies and regional NRM bodies is therefore as an important issue for improving natural resource management outcomes. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the current status of spatial information access, sharing and use with varying statutory arrangements and its impacts on spatial data infrastructure (SDI) development in catchment management sector in Australia. Further, it critically examined whether any trends and significant variations exist due to different institutional arrangements (statutory versus non-statutory) or not. A survey method was used to collect primary data from 56 regional natural resource management (NRM) bodies responsible for catchment management in Australia. Descriptive statistics method was used to show the similarities and differences between statutory and non-statutory arrangements. The key factors which influence sharing and access to spatial information are also explored. The results show the current statutory and administrative arrangements and regional focus for natural resource management is reasonable from a spatial information management perspective and provides an opportunity for building SDI at the catchment scale. However, effective institutional arrangements should align catchment SDI development activities with sub-national and national SDI development activities to address catchment management issues. We found minor

  3. Scale dependence of the simulated impact of Amazonian deforestation on regional climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pitman, A. J.; Lorenz, R.

    2016-09-01

    Using a global climate model, Amazonian deforestation experiments are conducted perturbing 1, 9, 25, 81 and 121 grid points, each with 5 ensemble members. All experiments show warming and drying over Amazonia. The impact of deforestation on temperature, averaged either over the affected area or a wider area, decreases by a factor of two as the scale of the perturbation increases from 1 to 121 grid points. This is associated with changes in the surface energy balance and consequential impacts on the atmosphere above the regions deforested. For precipitation, as the scale of deforestation increases from 9 to 121 grid points, the reduction in rainfall over the perturbed area decreases from ˜1.5 to ˜1 mm d-1. However, if the surrounding area is considered and large deforestation perturbations made, compensatory increases in precipitation occur such that there is little net change. This is largely associated with changes in horizontal advection of moisture. Disagreements between climate model experiments on how Amazonian deforestation affects precipitation and temperature are, at least in part, due to the spatial scale of the region deforested, differences in the areas used to calculate averages and whether areas surrounding deforestation are included in the overall averages.

  4. Impact of HIV/AIDS on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the WHO Africa Region.

    PubMed

    Kirigia, Joses M; Sambo, Luis G; Okorosobo, Tuoyo; Mwabu, Germano M

    2002-01-01

    HIV/AIDS is hypothesized to have substantive negative impact on health status and economic development of individuals, households, communities and nations. The objective of this study was to estimate the burden of HIV/AIDS on GDP in the WHO African Region using a production function approach. The economic burden analysis was done using a double-log econometric model and a cross-sectional data on 45 to 46 countries in the WHO African Region. The data were obtained from WHO, UNAIDS, ECA, UNDP and the World Bank publications. The coefficient for Capital (K), Education (EN), Export (X) and Imports (M) were found to be statistically significant determinants of per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 5% level of significance (using a one-sided t-distribution test). Unfortunately, HIV/AIDS morbidity (V) and HIV/AIDS deaths (VD), at the same level of significance, were found to have statistically insignificant impact on GDP. However, the coefficients of these variables had negative signs as expected. In all African countries, there is need for more detailed research on the total economic cost of HIV/AIDS (probably estimated using micro-level costing and willingness-to-pay methods) and for economic evaluations of treatment, prevention and promotion programmes.

  5. Modeling regional and gender impacts of the 2003 summer heatwave in excessive mortality in Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, Alexandre M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Nogueira, Paulo J.; Santos, Filipe D.; Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo; Gouveia, Célia; Santo, Fátima E.

    2010-05-01

    This work evaluates the impact of the 2003 European heatwave on excessive human mortality in Portugal, a country that presents a relatively high level of exposure to heatwave events. To estimate the fortnight expected mortality per district between 30 July and 15 August we have used five distinct baseline periods of mortality. We have opted to use the period that spans between 2000 and 2004, as it corresponds to a good compromise between a relatively long period (to guarantee some stability) and a sufficiently short period (to guarantee the similarity of the underlying population structure). Our findings show a total of 2399 excessive deaths are estimated in continental Portugal, which implies an increase of 58% over the expected deaths for those two weeks. When these values are split by gender, it is seen that women increase (79%), was considerably higher than that recorded for men (41%). The increment of mortality due to this heatwave was detected for all the 18 districts of the country, but its magnitude was significantly higher in the inner districts close to the Spanish border. When we split the regional impact by gender all districts reveal significant mortality increments for women, while the impact in men's excess deaths is not significant over 3 districts. Several temperature derived indices were used and evaluated in their capacity to explain, at the regional level, the excessive mortality (ratio between observed and expected deaths) by gender. The best relationship was found for the total exceedance of extreme days, an index combining the length of the heatwave and its intensity. Both variables hold a linear relationship with r = 0.79 for women and a poorer adjustment (r = 0.50) for men. Additionally, availability of mortality data split by age also allowed obtaining detailed information on the structure of the population in risk, namely by showing that statistically significant increments are concentrated in the last three age classes (45-64, 65-74 and

  6. Uncertainty and Evaluation of Impacts Modeling at Regional Scales in Integrated Assessment: the Case of Buildings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clarke, L.; Zhou, Y.; Eom, J.; Kyle, P.; Daly, D.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated assessment (IA) models have traditionally focused on the evaluation of climate mitigation strategies. However, in recent years, efforts to consider both impacts and mitigation simultaneously have expanded dramatically. Because climate impacts are inherently regional in scale, the incorporation of impacts into IA modeling - which is inherently global in character - raises a range of challenges beyond the already substantial challenges associated with modeling impacts. In particular, it raises questions about how to best evaluate and diagnose the resulting representations of impacts, and how to characterize the uncertainty surrounding associated projections. This presentation will provide an overview of the challenges and uncertainties surrounding modeling climate impacts on building heating and cooling demands in an integrated assessment modeling framework - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The presentation will first discuss the issues associated with modeling building heating and cooling degree days in IA models. It will review research using spatially explicit climate and population information to inform a standard version of GCAM with fourteen geopolitical regions. It will discuss a new subregional version of GCAM in which building energy consumption is resolved at a fifty-state level. The presentation will also characterize efforts to link GCAM to more technologically resolved buildings models to gain insights about demands at higher temporal resolution. The second portion of the presentation will discuss the uncertainties associated with projections of building heating and cooling demands at various scales. A range of key uncertainties are important. This includes a range of uncertainties surrounding the nature of changes to global and regional climates, with particular emphasis on the uncertainty surrounding temperature projections. In addition, the linkage in this research between human and Earth systems means that the projections are

  7. The Impact of Urbanization on the Regional Aeolian Dynamics of an Arid Coastal Dunefield

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Alexander; Jackson, Derek; Cooper, Andrew

    2016-04-01

    The anthropogenic impact on the geomorphology of many landscapes are inextricably connected but are often neglected due to the difficulty in making a direct link between the quasi natural and human processes that impact the environment. This research focuses on the Maspalomas dunefield, located on the southern coast of Gran Canaria, in the Canary Island Archipelago. The tourism industry in Maspalomas has led to intensive urbanization since the early 1960's over an elevated alluvial terrace that extends into the dunefield. Urbanization has had a substantial impact on both the regional airflow conditions and the geomorphological development of this transverse dune system. As a result airflow and sediment has been redirected in response to the large scale construction efforts. In situ data was collected during field campaigns using high resolution three-dimensional anemometry to identify the various modifications within the dunefield relative to incipient regional airflow conditions. The goal is to analyse the flow conditions near the urbanized terrace in relation to areas that are located away from the influence of the buildings and to verify numerical modelling results. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modelling is used in order to expand the areal extent of analysis by providing an understanding of relevant flow dynamics (e.g. flow velocity, directionality, turbulence, shear stresses, etc.) at the mesoscale. An integrative three dimensional model for CFD simulations was created to address the impact of both the urban area (i.e. hotels, commercial centers, and residential communities) as well as the dune terrain on regional flow conditions. Early modelling results show that there is significant flow modification around the urban terrace with streamline compression, acceleration, and deflection of flow on the windward side of the development. Consequently downwind of the terrace there is an area of highly turbulent flow conditions and well developed separation and

  8. Environmental impact assessment of mountain tourism in developing regions: A study in Ladakh, Indian Himalaya

    SciTech Connect

    Geneletti, Davide; Dawa, Dorje

    2009-07-15

    Mountain tourism in developing countries is becoming a growing environmental concern due to extreme seasonality, lack of suitable infrastructures and planning, and interference with fragile ecosystems and protected areas. This paper presents a study devoted to assess the adverse environmental impacts of tourism, and in particular of trekking-related activities, in Ladakh, Indian Himalaya. The proposed approach is based on the use of Geographical Information System (GIS) modeling and remote sensing imageries to cope with the lack of data that affect the region. First, stressors associated with trekking, and environmental receptors potentially affected were identified. Subsequently, a baseline study on stressors (trail use, waste dumping, camping, pack animal grazing and off-road driving) and receptors (soil, water, wildlife, vegetation) was conducted through field work, data collection, and data processing supported by GIS. Finally, impacts were modeled by considering the intensity of the stressors, and the vulnerability and the value of the receptors. The results were spatially aggregated into watershed units, and combined to generate composite impact maps. The study concluded that the most affected watersheds are located in the central and southeastern part of Ladakh, along some of the most visited trails and within the Hemis and the Tsokar Tsomoriri National parks. The main objective of the study was to understand patterns of tourism-induced environmental degradation, so as to support mitigation interventions, as well as the development of suitable tourism policies.

  9. Mechanisms of impact of greenhouse gases on the Earth's ozone layer in the Polar Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zadorozhny, Alexander; Dyominov, Igor

    A numerical 2-D zonally averaged interactive dynamical radiative-photochemical model of the atmosphere including aerosol physics is used to examine the impact of the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, and N2O on the future long-term changes of the Earth's ozone layer, in particular on its expected recovery after reduction of anthropogenic discharges of chlorine and bromine compounds into the atmosphere. The model allows calculating self-consistently diabatic circu-lation, temperature, gaseous composition of the troposphere and stratosphere at latitudes from the North to South Poles, as well as distribution of sulphate aerosol particles and polar strato-spheric clouds (PSCs) of types I and II. The scenarios of expected changes of the anthropogenic pollutants for the period from 1980 through 2050 are taken from Climate Change 2001. The processes, which determine the influence of anthropogenic growth of atmospheric abun-dance of the greenhouse gases on the long-term changes of the Earth's ozone layer in the Polar Regions, have been studied in details. Expected cooling of the stratosphere caused by increases of greenhouse gases, most importantly CO2, essentially influences the ozone layer by two ways: through temperature dependencies of the gas phase reaction rates and through enhancement of polar ozone depletion via increased PSC formation. The model calculations show that a weak-ness in efficiencies of all gas phase catalytic cycles of the ozone destruction due to cooling of the stratosphere is a dominant mechanism of the impact of the greenhouse gases on the ozone layer in Antarctic as well as at the lower latitudes. This mechanism leads to a significant acceleration of the ozone layer recovery here because of the greenhouse gases growth. On the contrary, the mechanism of the impact of the greenhouse gases on the ozone through PSC modification be-gins to be more effective in Arctic in comparison with the gas phase mechanism in springs after about 2020, which leads to retard

  10. Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Consumption and Peak Demand in Buildings: A Detailed Regional Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Dirks, James A.; Gorrissen, Willy J.; Hathaway, John E.; Skorski, Daniel C.; Scott, Michael J.; Pulsipher, Trenton C.; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Ying; Rice, Jennie S.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the results of numerous commercial and residential building simulations, with the purpose of examining the impact of climate change on peak and annual building energy consumption over the portion of the Eastern Interconnection (EIC) located in the United States. The climate change scenario considered (IPCC A2 scenario as downscaled from the CASCaDE data set) has changes in mean climate characteristics as well as changes in the frequency and duration of intense weather events. This investigation examines building energy demand for three annual periods representative of climate trends in the CASCaDE data set at the beginning, middle, and end of the century--2004, 2052, and 2089. Simulations were performed using the Building ENergy Demand (BEND) model which is a detailed simulation platform built around EnergyPlus. BEND was developed in collaboration with the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA), a modeling framework designed to simulate the complex interactions among climate, energy, water, and land at decision-relevant spatial scales. Over 26,000 building configurations of different types, sizes, vintages, and, characteristics which represent the population of buildings within the EIC, are modeled across the 3 EIC time zones using the future climate from 100 locations within the target region, resulting in nearly 180,000 spatially relevant simulated demand profiles for each of the 3 years. In this study, the building stock characteristics are held constant based on the 2005 building stock in order to isolate and present results that highlight the impact of the climate signal on commercial and residential energy demand. Results of this analysis compare well with other analyses at their finest level of specificity. This approach, however, provides a heretofore unprecedented level of specificity across multiple spectrums including spatial, temporal, and building characteristics. This capability enables the ability to

  11. Shifts in plant functional types have time-dependent and regionally variable impacts on dryland ecosystem water balance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bradford, John B.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Lauenroth, William K.; Burke, Ingrid C.

    2014-01-01

    5. Synthesis. This study provides a novel, regional-scale assessment of how plant functional type transitions may impact ecosystem water balance in sagebrush-dominated ecosystems of North America. Results illustrate that the ecohydrological consequences of changing vegetation depend strongly on climate and suggest that decreasing woody plant abundance may have only limited impact on evapotranspiration and water yield.

  12. Impacts of uncertainties in European gridded precipitation observations on regional climate analysis

    PubMed Central

    Gobiet, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Gridded precipitation data sets are frequently used to evaluate climate models or to remove model output biases. Although precipitation data are error prone due to the high spatio‐temporal variability of precipitation and due to considerable measurement errors, relatively few attempts have been made to account for observational uncertainty in model evaluation or in bias correction studies. In this study, we compare three types of European daily data sets featuring two Pan‐European data sets and a set that combines eight very high‐resolution station‐based regional data sets. Furthermore, we investigate seven widely used, larger scale global data sets. Our results demonstrate that the differences between these data sets have the same magnitude as precipitation errors found in regional climate models. Therefore, including observational uncertainties is essential for climate studies, climate model evaluation, and statistical post‐processing. Following our results, we suggest the following guidelines for regional precipitation assessments. (1) Include multiple observational data sets from different sources (e.g. station, satellite, reanalysis based) to estimate observational uncertainties. (2) Use data sets with high station densities to minimize the effect of precipitation undersampling (may induce about 60% error in data sparse regions). The information content of a gridded data set is mainly related to its underlying station density and not to its grid spacing. (3) Consider undercatch errors of up to 80% in high latitudes and mountainous regions. (4) Analyses of small‐scale features and extremes are especially uncertain in gridded data sets. For higher confidence, use climate‐mean and larger scale statistics. In conclusion, neglecting observational uncertainties potentially misguides climate model development and can severely affect the results of climate change impact assessments. PMID:28111497

  13. Recent regional climate cooling on the Antarctic Peninsula and associated impacts on the cryosphere.

    PubMed

    Oliva, M; Navarro, F; Hrbáček, F; Hernández, A; Nývlt, D; Pereira, P; Ruiz-Fernández, J; Trigo, R

    2017-02-15

    The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) is often described as a region with one of the largest warming trends on Earth since the 1950s, based on the temperature trend of 0.54°C/decade during 1951-2011 recorded at Faraday/Vernadsky station. Accordingly, most works describing the evolution of the natural systems in the AP region cite this extreme trend as the underlying cause of their observed changes. However, a recent analysis (Turner et al., 2016) has shown that the regionally stacked temperature record for the last three decades has shifted from a warming trend of 0.32°C/decade during 1979-1997 to a cooling trend of -0.47°C/decade during 1999-2014. While that study focuses on the period 1979-2014, averaging the data over the entire AP region, we here update and re-assess the spatially-distributed temperature trends and inter-decadal variability from 1950 to 2015, using data from ten stations distributed across the AP region. We show that Faraday/Vernadsky warming trend is an extreme case, circa twice those of the long-term records from other parts of the northern AP. Our results also indicate that the cooling initiated in 1998/1999 has been most significant in the N and NE of the AP and the South Shetland Islands (>0.5°C between the two last decades), modest in the Orkney Islands, and absent in the SW of the AP. This recent cooling has already impacted the cryosphere in the northern AP, including slow-down of glacier recession, a shift to surface mass gains of the peripheral glacier and a thinning of the active layer of permafrost in northern AP islands.

  14. Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Thermodynamic Profiles on Regional Precipitation Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chou, S.-H.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Jedloved, G. J.

    2010-01-01

    In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles in clear and cloudy regions with accuracy which approaches that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe an approach to assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model using WRF-Var. Quality indicators are used to select only the highest quality temperature and moisture profiles for assimilation in clear and partly cloudy regions, and uncontaminated portions of retrievals above clouds in overcast regions. Separate error characteristics for land and water profiles are also used in the assimilation process. Assimilation results indicate that AIRS profiles produce an analysis closer to in situ observations than the background field. Forecasts from a 37-day case study period in the winter of 2007 show that AIRS profile data can lead to improvements in 6-h cumulative precipitation forecasts resulting from improved thermodynamic fields. Additionally, in a convective heavy rainfall event from February 2007, assimilation of AIRS profiles produces a more unstable boundary layer resulting in enhanced updrafts in the model. These updrafts produce a squall line and precipitation totals that more closely reflect ground-based observations than a no AIRS control forecast. The location of available high-quality AIRS profiles ahead of approaching storm systems is found to be of paramount importance to the amount of impact the observations will have on the resulting forecasts.

  15. Impact of region contouring variability on image-based focal therapy evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gibson, Eli; Donaldson, Ian A.; Shah, Taimur T.; Hu, Yipeng; Ahmed, Hashim U.; Barratt, Dean C.

    2016-03-01

    Motivation: Focal therapy is an emerging low-morbidity treatment option for low-intermediate risk prostate cancer; however, challenges remain in accurately delivering treatment to specified targets and determining treatment success. Registered multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (MPMRI) acquired before and after treatment can support focal therapy evaluation and optimization; however, contouring variability, when defining the prostate, the clinical target volume (CTV) and the ablation region in images, reduces the precision of quantitative image-based focal therapy evaluation metrics. To inform the interpretation and clarify the limitations of such metrics, we investigated inter-observer contouring variability and its impact on four metrics. Methods: Pre-therapy and 2-week-post-therapy standard-of-care MPMRI were acquired from 5 focal cryotherapy patients. Two clinicians independently contoured, on each slice, the prostate (pre- and post-treatment) and the dominant index lesion CTV (pre-treatment) in the T2-weighted MRI, and the ablated region (post-treatment) in the dynamic-contrast- enhanced MRI. For each combination of clinician contours, post-treatment images were registered to pre-treatment images using a 3D biomechanical-model-based registration of prostate surfaces, and four metrics were computed: the proportion of the target tissue region that was ablated and the target:ablated region volume ratio for each of two targets (the CTV and an expanded planning target volume). Variance components analysis was used to measure the contribution of each type of contour to the variance in the therapy evaluation metrics. Conclusions: 14-23% of evaluation metric variance was attributable to contouring variability (including 6-12% from ablation region contouring); reducing this variability could improve the precision of focal therapy evaluation metrics.

  16. Impacts of uncertainties in European gridded precipitation observations on regional climate analysis.

    PubMed

    Prein, Andreas F; Gobiet, Andreas

    2017-01-01

    Gridded precipitation data sets are frequently used to evaluate climate models or to remove model output biases. Although precipitation data are error prone due to the high spatio-temporal variability of precipitation and due to considerable measurement errors, relatively few attempts have been made to account for observational uncertainty in model evaluation or in bias correction studies. In this study, we compare three types of European daily data sets featuring two Pan-European data sets and a set that combines eight very high-resolution station-based regional data sets. Furthermore, we investigate seven widely used, larger scale global data sets. Our results demonstrate that the differences between these data sets have the same magnitude as precipitation errors found in regional climate models. Therefore, including observational uncertainties is essential for climate studies, climate model evaluation, and statistical post-processing. Following our results, we suggest the following guidelines for regional precipitation assessments. (1) Include multiple observational data sets from different sources (e.g. station, satellite, reanalysis based) to estimate observational uncertainties. (2) Use data sets with high station densities to minimize the effect of precipitation undersampling (may induce about 60% error in data sparse regions). The information content of a gridded data set is mainly related to its underlying station density and not to its grid spacing. (3) Consider undercatch errors of up to 80% in high latitudes and mountainous regions. (4) Analyses of small-scale features and extremes are especially uncertain in gridded data sets. For higher confidence, use climate-mean and larger scale statistics. In conclusion, neglecting observational uncertainties potentially misguides climate model development and can severely affect the results of climate change impact assessments.

  17. Invited review: climate change impacts in polar regions: lessons from Antarctic moss bank archives.

    PubMed

    Royles, Jessica; Griffiths, Howard

    2015-03-01

    Mosses are the dominant plants in polar and boreal regions, areas which are experiencing rapid impacts of regional warming. Long-term monitoring programmes provide some records of the rate of recent climate change, but moss peat banks contain an unrivalled temporal record of past climate change on terrestrial plant Antarctic systems. We summarise the current understanding of climatic proxies and determinants of moss growth for contrasting continental and maritime Antarctic regions, as informed by 13C and 18O signals in organic material. Rates of moss accumulation are more than three times higher in the maritime Antarctic than continental Antarctica with growing season length being a critical determinant of growth rate, and high carbon isotope discrimination values reflecting optimal hydration conditions. Correlation plots of 13C and 18O values show that species (Chorisodontium aciphyllum / Polytrichum strictum) and growth form (hummock / bank) are the major determinants of measured isotope ratios. The interplay between moss growth form, photosynthetic physiology, water status and isotope composition are compared with developments of secondary proxies, such as chlorophyll fluorescence. These approaches provide a framework to consider the potential impact of climate change on terrestrial Antarctic habitats as well as having implications for future studies of temperate, boreal and Arctic peatlands. There are many urgent ecological and environmental problems in the Arctic related to mosses in a changing climate, but the geographical ranges of species and life-forms are difficult to track individually. Our goal was to translate what we have learned from the more simple systems in Antarctica, for application to Arctic habitats.

  18. Vertical Profiles of Ammonia in the Colorado Front Range: Impacts of Source Region and Meteorology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tevlin, A.; Kaushik, A.; Noone, D. C.; Ortega, J. V.; Smith, J. N.; Brophy, P.; Kirkland, J.; Link, M. F.; Farmer, D. K.; Wolfe, D. E.; Dube, W. P.; McDuffie, E. E.; Brown, S. S.; Zaragoza, J.; Fischer, E. V.; Murphy, J. G.

    2014-12-01

    Atmospheric ammonia plays an important role in aerosol particle formation and growth, as well as in nitrogen deposition to sensitive ecosystems. However, significant uncertainties are associated with the distribution and strength of emission sources, and many of the processes that control its atmospheric fate are not fully understood. The high density of agricultural and urban sources located in close proximity to more pristine mountainous areas to the west make the Colorado Front Range a unique area for studying atmospheric ammonia. The meteorology of the region, where heavy monsoon rains can be followed by rapid evaporation, can also impact surface-atmosphere partitioning of ammonia. As part of the Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Éxperiment (FRAPPÉ), vertical profiles of ammonia were measured throughout the boundary layer aboard a moveable platform on the 300 m Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO) tower. Changes in ammonia concentration and its vertical structure were driven not only by changes in wind direction and estimated source region, but also by fluctuations in surface and atmosphere water content. For example, large increases in atmospheric ammonia mixing ratios were observed following rain events. This may be explained by surface-atmosphere exchange of wet-deposited ammonia associated with rapid evaporation following the event, and likely impacts particle formation. This may also play a role in transport from ammonia-rich agricultural areas towards the mountainous regions to the west during periods of upslope flow. The vertical ammonia concentration gradients observed throughout the structured early morning boundary layer also provide insight into the possible causes of early morning spikes in ammonia - a phenomenon that has been well-documented in many other locations. A box model was used to assess the relative importance of surface emissions due to the evaporation of morning dew versus entrainment of ammonia-rich air from above the

  19. Solar wind interaction with comet 67P: Impacts of corotating interaction regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edberg, N. J. T.; Eriksson, A. I.; Odelstad, E.; Vigren, E.; Andrews, D. J.; Johansson, F.; Burch, J. L.; Carr, C. M.; Cupido, E.; Glassmeier, K.-H.; Goldstein, R.; Halekas, J. S.; Henri, P.; Koenders, C.; Mandt, K.; Mokashi, P.; Nemeth, Z.; Nilsson, H.; Ramstad, R.; Richter, I.; Wieser, G. Stenberg

    2016-02-01

    We present observations from the Rosetta Plasma Consortium of the effects of stormy solar wind on comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. Four corotating interaction regions (CIRs), where the first event has possibly merged with a coronal mass ejection, are traced from Earth via Mars (using Mars Express and Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN mission) to comet 67P from October to December 2014. When the comet is 3.1-2.7 AU from the Sun and the neutral outgassing rate ˜1025-1026 s-1, the CIRs significantly influence the cometary plasma environment at altitudes down to 10-30 km. The ionospheric low-energy (˜5 eV) plasma density increases significantly in all events, by a factor of >2 in events 1 and 2 but less in events 3 and 4. The spacecraft potential drops below -20 V upon impact when the flux of electrons increases. The increased density is likely caused by compression of the plasma environment, increased particle impact ionization, and possibly charge exchange processes and acceleration of mass-loaded plasma back to the comet ionosphere. During all events, the fluxes of suprathermal (˜10-100 eV) electrons increase significantly, suggesting that the heating mechanism of these electrons is coupled to the solar wind energy input. At impact the magnetic field strength in the coma increases by a factor of 2-5 as more interplanetary magnetic field piles up around the comet. During two CIR impact events, we observe possible plasma boundaries forming, or moving past Rosetta, as the strong solar wind compresses the cometary plasma environment. We also discuss the possibility of seeing some signatures of the ionospheric response to tail disconnection events.

  20. Modeling land-atmosphere interactions: the impact of deforestation in tropical Africa on the regional climate.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akkermans, Tom; Lauwaet, Dirk; van Lipzig, Nicole

    2010-05-01

    Deforestation is generally seen as an alarming trend, especially in third world countries. This research focuses on the climatological impact of anthropogenic forest degradation in tropical Africa, a study area which has received relatively few attention. Building on previous studies, additional and new research methods are applied. A regional climate model (COSMO-CLM) will be used and coupled to a soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer component (the Community Land Model). As this research just started, the poster presentation will give an overview of the project, which is described below. Firstly, the impact of overall deforestation estimates will be quantified by applying a spatial algorithm for different deforestation amounts, constrained by allocation rules. Secondly, this algorithm will also be used to investigate the impact of spatial deforestation patterns, e.g. concentrated versus dispersed logging. Thirdly, climate-vegetation feedbacks will be included in the model runs. Physiological effects of increased greenhouse gases on vegetation (e.g. reduction of stomatal conductance, hence decrease in transpiration) and dynamical vegetation cycles (e.g. reaction of leaf area index on dry spells and heat stress) are the focus of interest. Finally, the effect of land cover change on detailed atmospheric processes such as convective activity will be studied. The second as well as the fourth goal requires a substantial increase in spatial detail compared to current studies, which will be obtained by increasing the horizontal resolution (for the atmospheric model and for the land cover data) and making use of sub-grid flux calculations for energy and moisture. The impact of the above-mentioned elements will be quantified by comparing different model simulations. The overall climate forcing from land cover change will be compared with the forcing from greenhouse gases, which allows for quantifying their relative importance.

  1. Impact of climate change on surface wind regime over the Peru-Chile upwelling region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goubanova, K.; Echevin, V.; Dewitte, B.; Garreaud, R.; Terray, P.; Vrac, M.

    2009-04-01

    The ocean region off the Chile-Peru coast is characterized by upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters, which drives an exceptionally high biological productivity. This upwelling is induced by the persistent southerly winds along the coast that exhibit a coastal jet structure at intraseasonal scales. Recent climate change studies based on the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) show a strengthening of the large-scale southerlies along the subtropical coast that could lead to an increase in coastal upwelling. However the coastal jet events which represent a considerable source of the synoptic variability of the alongshore winds are characterized by horizontal scale comparable to a AOGCM grid cell size, and cannot be therefore explicitly resolved by the AOGCMs. In order to provide a regional estimate of the winds as predicted by the coarse-resolution AOGCMs, a statistical downscaling method based on multiple linear regression is proposed. Large-scale wind at 10 m and sea level pressure are chosen as the predictor variables for regional 10 m wind. The validation is performed in two steps. First, QuikSCAT and ERS satellite products and NCEP reanalysis for the period 1992-2006 are used to build and validate the statistical model for the present climate. Second, the model is validated under a warmer climate: it is applied to large-scale predictors extracted from HadCM3 AOGCM simulations for the A2 and B2 SRES scenarios (2071-2100); the downscaled wind is then compared with outputs of the PRECIS regional climate model, forced at its boundaries by the same HadCM3 scenarios. To assess climate change impact on the along-shore wind, the statistical downscaling is applied to two contrasted SRES scenarios, namely the so-called preindustrial and CO2 quadrupling. The outputs of the IPSL-CM4 AOGCM are used as predictors. Evolution of the along-shore wind regime with a focus on the change of the coastal jet characteristics is discussed. For this particular

  2. Impact of anomalous forest fire on aerosol radiative forcing and snow cover over Himalayan region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bali, Kunal; Mishra, Amit Kumar; Singh, Sachchidanand

    2017-02-01

    Forest fires are very common in tropical region during February-May months and are known to have significant impact on ecosystem dynamics. Moreover, aerosols emitted from these burning activities significantly modulate the Earth's radiation budget. In present study, we investigated the anomalous forest fire events and their impact on atmospheric radiation budget and glaciated snow cover over the Himalayan region. We used multiple dataset derived from satellites [Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO)] and reanalysis models [Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS), Second Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Application (MERRA-2) and ERA-interim] to evaluate the effect of biomass burning aerosols on radiation budget. April 2016 is associated with anomalous fire activities over lower Himalayan region in the last fourteen years (2003-2016). The model estimated organic carbon (OC) and black carbon (BC) emission reaches up to ∼3 × 104 and ∼2 × 103 μg/m2/day, respectively during the biomass burning period of April 2016. The meteorological data analysis accompanied with CALIOP aerosol vertical profile shows that these carbonaceous aerosols could reach up to ∼5-7 km altitude and could be transported towards glaciated region of upper Himalayas. The large amount of BC/OC from biomass burning significantly modulates the atmospheric radiation budget. The estimated columnar heating rate shows that these carbonaceous aerosols could heat up the atmosphere by ∼0.04-0.06 K/day in April-2016 with respect to non-burning period (2015). The glaciated snow cover fractions are found to be decreasing by ∼5-20% in 2016 as compared to long term mean (2003-2016). The combined analyses of various climatic factors, fires and associated BC emissions show that the observed snow cover decrease could be results of increased surface/atmospheric temperature due to combined effect of

  3. Climate change impacts on risks of groundwater pollution by herbicides: a regional scale assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steffens, Karin; Moeys, Julien; Lindström, Bodil; Kreuger, Jenny; Lewan, Elisabet; Jarvis, Nick

    2014-05-01

    Groundwater contributes nearly half of the Swedish drinking water supply, which therefore needs to be protected both under present and future climate conditions. Pesticides are sometimes found in Swedish groundwater in concentrations exceeding the EU-drinking water limit and thus constitute a threat. The aim of this study was to assess the present and future risks of groundwater pollution at the regional scale by currently approved herbicides. We identified representative combinations of major crop types and their specific herbicide usage (product, dose and application timing) based on long-term monitoring data from two agricultural catchments in the South-West of Sweden. All these combinations were simulated with the regional version of the pesticide fate model MACRO (called MACRO-SE) for the periods 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 for a major crop production region in South West Sweden. To represent the uncertainty in future climate data, we applied a five-member ensemble based on different climate model projections downscaled with the RCA3-model (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute). In addition to the direct impacts of changes in the climate, the risks of herbicide leaching in the future will also be affected by likely changes in weed pressure and land use and management practices (e.g. changes in crop rotations and application timings). To assess the relative importance of such factors we performed a preliminary sensitivity analysis which provided us with a hierarchical structure for constructing future herbicide use scenarios for the regional scale model runs. The regional scale analysis gave average concentrations of herbicides leaching to groundwater for a large number of combinations of soils, crops and compounds. The results showed that future scenarios for herbicide use (more autumn-sown crops, more frequent multiple applications on one crop, and a shift from grassland to arable crops such as maize) imply significantly greater risks of herbicide

  4. HIMALA: Climate Impacts on Glaciers, Snow, and Hydrology in the Himalayan Region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Ouyang, Hua; Habib, Shahid; Shrestha, Basanta; Shrestha, Mandira; Panday, Prajjwal; Tzortziou, Maria; Policelli, Frederick; Artan, Guleid; Giriraj, Amarnath; Bajracharya, Sagar R.; Racoviteanu, Adina

    2010-01-01

    Glaciers are the largest reservoir of freshwater on Earth, supporting one third of the world s population. The Himalaya possess one of the largest resources of snow and ice, which act as a freshwater reservoir for more than 1.3 billion people. This article describes a new project called HIMALA, which focuses on utilizing satellite-based products for better understanding of hydrological processes of the river basins of the region. With support from the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), together with its partners and member countries, has been working on the application of satellite-based rainfall estimates for flood prediction. The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) partners are working with ICIMOD to incorporate snowmelt and glacier melt into a widely used hydrological model. Thus, through improved modeling of the contribution of snow and ice meltwater to river flow in the region, the HIMALA project will improve the ability of ICIMOD and its partners to understand the impact of weather and climate on floods, droughts, and other water- and climate-induced natural hazards in the Himalayan region in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan.

  5. HIMALA: climate impacts on glaciers, snow, and hydrology in the Himalayan region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Ouyang, Hua; Habib, Shahid; Shrestha, Basanta; Shrestha, Mandira; Panday, Prajjwal; Tzortziou, Maria; Policelli, Frederick; Artan, Guleid; Giriraj, Amarnath; Bajracharya, Sagar R.; Racoviteanu, Adina

    2010-01-01

    Glaciers are the largest reservoir of freshwater on Earth, supporting one third of the world's population. The Himalaya possess one of the largest resources of snow and ice, which act as a freshwater reservoir for more than 1.3 billion people. This article describes a new project called HIMALA, which focuses on utilizing satellite-based products for better understanding of hydrological processes of the river basins of the region. With support from the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), together with its partners and member countries, has been working on the application of satellite-based rainfall estimates for flood prediction. The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) partners are working with ICIMOD to incorporate snowmelt and glacier melt into a widely used hydrological model. Thus, through improved modeling of the contribution of snow and ice meltwater to river flow in the region, the HIMALA project will improve the ability of ICIMOD and its partners to understand the impact of weather and climate on floods, droughts, and other water- and climate-induced natural hazards in the Himalayan region in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan.

  6. Farm gate environmental impacts of beef production in the Northern Plains and Midwest regions of the U.S.

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Cradle-to-farm gate environmental impacts of beef production in two cattle producing regions were assessed as part of an on-going national sustainability study of the U.S. beef value chain launched by the Beef Checkoff. Region-specific data on common ranch and feedlot management practices were chara...

  7. Examining the Impact of Nitrous Acid Chemistry on Ozone and PM over the Pearl River Delta Region

    EPA Science Inventory

    The impact of nitrous acid (HONO) chemistry on regional ozone and particulate matter in Pearl River Delta region was investigated using the community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) modeling system and the CB05 mechanism. Model simulations were conducted for a ten-day period in Oct...

  8. Impact of Regional Differences within State on the Factors Influencing Youth Entrepreneurship--A Case of Garhwal and Kumaun Regions of Uttarakhand

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharma, Lalit

    2015-01-01

    Lee, Chang & Lim (2005) state that the impact of entrepreneurship education in each country is different because of each country's unique culture with regard to entrepreneurship. Going by the above argument, this research paper intends to make a formal enquiry on whether the above effect holds true for different regions within a particular…

  9. Regional economic impacts of changes in electricity rates resulting from Western Area Power Administration`s power marketing alternatives

    SciTech Connect

    Allison, T.; Griffes, P.; Edwards, B.K.

    1995-03-01

    This technical memorandum describes an analysis of regional economic impacts resulting from changes in retail electricity rates due to six power marketing programs proposed by Western Area Power Administration (Western). Regional economic impacts of changes in rates are estimated in terms of five key regional economic variables: population, gross regional product, disposable income, employment, and household income. The REMI (Regional Impact Models, Inc.) and IMPLAN (Impact Analysis for Planning) models simulate economic impacts in nine subregions in the area in which Western power is sold for the years 1993, 2000, and 2008. Estimates show that impacts on aggregate economic activity in any of the subregions or years would be minimal for three reasons. First, the utilities that buy power from Western sell only a relatively small proportion of the total electricity sold in any of the subregions. Second, reliance of Western customers on Western power is fairly low in each subregion. Finally, electricity is not a significant input cost for any industry or for households in any subregion.

  10. Evaluation of the Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Radiance and Profile Data Assimilation in Partly Cloudy Regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zavodsky, Bradley; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Jedlovec, Gary

    2013-01-01

    Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Retrieved profiles from AIRS contain much of the information that is contained in the radiances and may be able to reveal reasons for this reduced impact. Assimilating AIRS retrieved profiles in an identical analysis configuration to the radiances, tracking the quantity and quality of the assimilated data in each technique, and examining analysis increments and forecast impact from each data type can yield clues as to the reasons for the reduced impact. By doing this with regional scale models individual synoptic features (and the impact of AIRS on these features) can be more easily tracked. This project examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing operational techniques used for AIRS radiances and research techniques used for AIRS retrieved profiles. Parallel versions of a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) are run to examine the impact AIRS radiances and retrieved profiles. Statistical evaluation of 6 weeks of forecast runs will be compared along with preliminary results of in-depth investigations for select case comparing the analysis increments in partly cloudy regions and short-term forecast impacts.

  11. Impact of Agricultural Practice on Regional Climate in a CoupledLand Surface Mesoscale Model

    SciTech Connect

    Cooley, H.S.; Riley, W.J.; Torn, M.S.; He, Y.

    2004-07-01

    The land surface has been shown to form strong feedbacks with climate due to linkages between atmospheric conditions and terrestrial ecosystem exchanges of energy, momentum, water, and trace gases. Although often ignored in modeling studies, land management itself may form significant feedbacks. Because crops are harvested earlier under drier conditions, regional air temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture, for example, affect harvest timing, particularly of rain-fed crops. This removal of vegetation alters the land surface characteristics and may, in turn, affect regional climate. We applied a coupled climate(MM5) and land-surface (LSM1) model to examine the effects of early and late winter wheat harvest on regional climate in the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility in the Southern Great Plains, where winter wheat accounts for 20 percent of the land area. Within the winter wheat region, simulated 2 m air temperature was 1.3 C warmer in the Early Harvest scenario at mid-day averaged over the two weeks following harvest. Soils in the harvested area were drier and warmer in the top 10 cm and wetter in the 10-20 cm layer. Midday soils were 2.5 C warmer in the harvested area at mid-day averaged over the two weeks following harvest. Harvest also dramatically altered latent and sensible heat fluxes. Although differences between scenarios diminished once both scenarios were harvested, the short-term impacts of land management on climate were comparable to those from land cover change demonstrated in other studies.

  12. Impact of land cover characterization on regional climate modeling over West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba; Pal, Jeremy S.; Wang, Guiling L.; Lawrence, Peter J.

    2016-01-01

    The impact of high resolution modern vegetation cover on the West African climate is examined using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model implementing the NCAR Community Land Model. Two high resolution 25 km long-term simulations driven by the output from a coarser 50-km resolution simulation are performed for the period 1998-2010. One high resolution simulation uses an earlier and coarser-resolution version of plant functional type distribution and leaf area index, while the other uses a more recent, higher-quality, and finer-resolution version of the data. The results indicate that the new land cover distribution substantially alters the distribution of temperature with warming in Central Nigeria, northern Gulf of Guinea and part of the Sahel due to the replacement of C4 grass with corn; and cooling along the coastlines of the Gulf of Guinea and in Central Africa due to the replacement of C4 grass with tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these temperature changes with a net decrease (increase) in regions of warming (cooling). The improved land cover distribution also results in a wetter monsoon season. The presence of corn tends to favor larger precipitation amounts via more intense events, while the presence of tropical broadleaf evergreen trees tends to favor the occurrence of both more intense and more frequent events. The wetter conditions appear to be sustained via (1) an enhanced soil moisture feedback; and (2) elevated moisture transport due to increased low-level convergence in regions south of 10N where the most substantial land cover differences are present. Overall the changes induced by the improved vegetation cover improve, to some extent, the performance of the high resolution regional climate model in simulating the main West African summer monsoon features.

  13. Regional economic impacts of water management alternatives: the case of Devils Lake, North Dakota, USA.

    PubMed

    Leistritz, F Larry; Leitch, Jay A; Bangsund, Dean A

    2002-12-01

    Devils Lake, located in a closed basin in northeastern North Dakota has over a century-long history of highly fluctuating water levels. The lake has risen nearly 25 feet (7.7 m) since 1993, more than doubling its surface area. Rising water levels have affected rural lands, transportation routes, and communities near the lake. In response to rising lake levels, Federal, state and local agencies have adopted a three-part approach to flood damage reduction, consisting of (1) upper basin water management to reduce the amount of water reaching the lake, (2) protection for structures and infrastructure if the lake continues to rise, and (3) developing an emergency outlet to release some lake water. The purpose of this study was to provide information about the net regional economic effects of a proposed emergency outlet for Devils Lake. An input-output model was used to estimate the regional economic effects of the outlet, under two scenarios: (1) the most likely future situation (MLS) and (2) a best case situation (BCS) (i.e., where the benefits from the outlet would be greatest), albeit an unlikely one. Regional economic effects of the outlet include effects on transportation (road and railroad construction), agriculture (land kept in production, returned to production sooner, or kept in production longer), residential relocations, and outlet construction expenditures. Effects are measured as changes in gross business volume (gross receipts) for various sectors, secondary employment, and local tax collections. The net regional economic effects of the proposed outlet would be relatively small, and consideration of these economic impacts would not strengthen the case for an outlet.

  14. Pulling Marbles from a Bag: Deducing the Regional Impact History of the SPA Basin from Impact Melt Rocks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cohen, Barbara A.; Coker, R. F.

    2009-01-01

    The South Pole-Aitken (SPA) basin is an important target for absolute age-dating. Vertical and lateral impact mixing ensures that regolith within SPA will contain rock fragments from SPA itself, local impact craters, and faraway giant basins. About 20% of the regolith at any given site is foreign [1, 2], but much of this material will be cold ejecta, not impact melt. We calculated the fraction of contributed impact melt using scaling laws to estimate the amount and provenance of impact melt, demonstrating that SPA melt is the dominant impact melt rock (>70%) likely to be present. We also constructed a statistical model to illustrate how many randomly-selected impact-melt fragments would need to be dated, and with what accuracy, to confidently reproduce the impact history of a site. A detailed impact history becomes recognizable after a few hundred to a thousand randomly-selected marbles, however, it will be useful to have more information (e.g. compositional, mineralogical, remote sensing) to group fragments. These exercises show that SPA melt has a high probability of being present in a scoop sample and that dating of a few hundred to a thousand impact-melt fragments will yield the impact history of the SPA basin.

  15. Dominance of pollutant aerosols over an urban region and its impact on boundary layer temperature profile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Talukdar, Shamitaksha; Jana, Soumyajyoti; Maitra, Animesh

    2017-01-01

    Collocated measurements of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and black carbon at different wavelengths over Kolkata, an urban region in eastern India, have been used to calculate aerosol single-scattering albedo (SSA). The wavelength dependence of SSA and AOD has been presented to discriminate the aerosol types over this highly populated metropolitan area. The spectral pattern shows that SSA decreases with wavelength for most of the time in a year and corresponding Ångström coefficient is greater than unity. These optical properties indicate the dominance of fine-mode pollutant particles over the city. The temperature lapse rate profile within the surface boundary layer has been found to be significantly influenced by the heating effect of fine-mode pollutants, and consequently, the growth of the convective processes in the lower troposphere is notably affected. In addition, a back trajectory analysis has also been presented to indicate that transported air masses can have significant impact on spectral pattern of SSA.

  16. Hydrologic variability in dryland regions: impacts on ecosystem dynamics and food security.

    PubMed

    D'Odorico, Paolo; Bhattachan, Abinash

    2012-11-19

    Research on ecosystem and societal response to global environmental change typically considers the effects of shifts in mean climate conditions. There is, however, some evidence of ongoing changes also in the variance of hydrologic and climate fluctuations. A relatively high interannual variability is a distinctive feature of the hydrologic regime of dryland regions, particularly at the desert margins. Hydrologic variability has an important impact on ecosystem dynamics, food security and societal reliance on ecosystem services in water-limited environments. Here, we investigate some of the current patterns of hydrologic variability in drylands around the world and review the major effects of hydrologic fluctuations on ecosystem resilience, maintenance of biodiversity and food security. We show that random hydrologic fluctuations may enhance the resilience of dryland ecosystems by obliterating bistable deterministic behaviours and threshold-like responses to external drivers. Moreover, by increasing biodiversity and the associated ecosystem redundancy, hydrologic variability can indirectly enhance post-disturbance recovery, i.e. ecosystem resilience.

  17. On the potential for climate change impacts on marine anthropogenic radioactivity in the Arctic regions.

    PubMed

    Karcher, Michael; Harms, Ingo; Standring, William J F; Dowdall, Mark; Strand, Per

    2010-08-01

    Current predictions as to the impacts of climate change in general and Arctic climate change in particular are such that a wide range of processes relevant to Arctic contaminants are potentially vulnerable. Of these, radioactive contaminants and the processes that govern their transport and fate may be particularly susceptible to the effects of a changing Arctic climate. This paper explores the potential changes in the physical system of the Arctic climate system as they are deducible from present day knowledge and model projections. As a contribution to a better preparedness regarding Arctic marine contamination with radioactivity we present and discuss how a changing marine physical environment may play a role in altering the current understanding pertaining to behavior of contaminant radionuclides in the marine environment of the Arctic region.

  18. Hypervariable antigenic region 1 of classical swine fever virus E2 protein impacts antibody neutralization.

    PubMed

    Liao, Xun; Wang, Zuohuan; Cao, Tong; Tong, Chao; Geng, Shichao; Gu, Yuanxing; Zhou, Yingshan; Li, Xiaoliang; Fang, Weihuan

    2016-07-19

    Envelope glycoprotein E2 of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) is the major antigen that induces neutralizing antibodies and confers protection against CSFV infection. There are three hypervariable antigenic regions (HAR1, HAR2 and HAR3) of E2 that are different between the group 1 vaccine C-strain and group 2 clinical isolates. This study was aimed to characterize the antigenic epitope region recognized by monoclonal antibody 4F4 (mAb-4F4) that is present in the group 2 field isolate HZ1-08, but not in the C-strain, and examine its impact on neutralization titers when antisera from different recombinant viruses were cross-examined. Indirect ELISA with C-strain E2-based chimeric proteins carrying the three HAR regions showed that the mAb-4F4 bound to HAR1 from HZ1-08 E2, but not to HAR2 or HAR3, indicating that the specific epitope is located in the HAR1 region. Of the 6 major residues differences between C-strain and field isolates, Glu713 in the HAR1 region of strain HZ1-08 is critical for mAb-4F4 binding either at the recombinant protein level or using intact recombinant viruses carrying single mutations. C-strain-based recombinant viruses carrying the most antigenic part of E2 or HAR1 from strain HZ1-08 remained non-pathogenic to pigs and induced good antibody responses. By cross-neutralization assay, we observed that the anti-C-strain serum lost most of its neutralization capacity to RecC-HZ-E2 and QZ-14 (subgroup 2.1d field isolate in 2014), and vice versa. More importantly, the RecC-HAR1 virus remained competent in neutralizing ReC-HZ-E2 and QZ-14 strains without compromising the neutralization capability to the recombinant C-strain. Thus, we propose that chimeric C-strain carrying the HAR1 region of field isolates is a good vaccine candidate for classical swine fever.

  19. Regional impacts of urbanization on stream channel geometry: A case study in semiarid southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taniguchi, Kristine T.; Biggs, Trent W.

    2015-11-01

    Urbanization often increases storm runoff, peak discharges and rates of stream channel erosion. Coastal California has experienced rapid urbanization over the past several decades and has the potential for stream channel degradation. Several counties in California have implemented Hydromodification Management Plans (HMPs) to protect channels from erosion, but few studies have quantified the impact of urbanization on channel geometry in diverse geological settings at the county scale. A synoptic survey of field sites (N = 56) by the California Environmental Data Exchange Network (CEDEN) and additional field surveys (N = 24) were used to develop regional hydraulic geometry curves relating bankfull cross-sectional area (Axs), width (w), mean depth (d), and discharge (Qbf) to watershed area (Aw) in San Diego County. Regional curves were compared for urban and reference sites and to other regional curves developed for southern California. Multiple regression models were used to identify dominant watershed and channel controls on geometry, including Aw, percent impervious cover (I%), mean annual precipitation, underlying geology, longitudinal slope, hydrologic soil group, and channel particle size. For the reference streams, regional curves were statistically significant for w and Axs (p < 0.05). The regional curves for urban channels (I% > 20%) had significantly larger w, d, Axs, and Qbf for a given watershed size. A majority (68%) of the urban channels and 78% of the small urban channels (Aw < 10 km2) were enlarged. Enlargement of channels in small watersheds disrupted the correlation between Aw and bankfull dimensions, and I% was the only significant predictor of channel geometry in urban watersheds. Channel response differed by channel substrate: sand-bedded channels incised and experienced extreme enlargement of up to 115 × the Axs of reference sites, while gravel-bedded channels widened and showed less enlargement (< 7 × reference Axs). Diverse channel responses

  20. Potential Impacts of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles on Regional Power Generation

    SciTech Connect

    Hadley, Stanton W; Tsvetkova, Alexandra A

    2008-01-01

    Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are being developed around the world, with much work aiming to optimize engine and battery for efficient operation, both during discharge and when grid electricity is available for recharging. However, the general expectation has been that the grid will not be greatly affected by the use of PHEVs because the recharging will occur during off-peak hours, or the number of vehicles will grow slowly enough so that capacity planning will respond adequately. This expectation does not consider that drivers will control the timing of recharging, and their inclination will be to plug in when convenient, rather than when utilities would prefer. It is important to understand the ramifications of adding load from PHEVs onto the grid. Depending on when and where the vehicles are plugged in, they could cause local or regional constraints on the grid. They could require the addition of new electric capacity and increase the utilization of existing capacity. Usage patterns of local distribution grids will change, and some lines or substations may become overloaded sooner than expected. Furthermore, the type of generation used to meet the demand for recharging PHEVs will depend on the region of the country and the timing of recharging. This paper analyzes the potential impacts of PHEVs on electricity demand, supply, generation structure, prices, and associated emission levels in 2020 and 2030 in 13 regions specified by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) and the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Energy Information Administration (EIA), and on which the data and analysis in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2007 are based (Figure ES-1). The estimates of power plant supplies and regional hourly electricity demand come from publicly available sources from EIA and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Electricity requirements for PHEVs are based on analysis from the Electric Power Research Institute, with an optimistic

  1. Impact of various observing systems on weather analysis and forecast over the Indian region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Randhir; Ojha, Satya P.; Kishtawal, C. M.; Pal, P. K.

    2014-09-01

    To investigate the potential impact of various types of data on weather forecast over the Indian region, a set of data-denial experiments spanning the entire month of July 2012 is executed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system. The experiments are designed to allow the assessment of mass versus wind observations and terrestrial versus space-based instruments, to evaluate the relative importance of the classes of conventional instrument such as radiosonde, and finally to investigate the role of individual spaceborne instruments. The moist total energy norm is used for validation and forecast skill assessment. The results show that the contribution of wind observations toward error reduction is larger than mass observations in the short range (48 h) forecast. Terrestrial-based observations generally contribute more than space-based observations except for the moisture fields, where the role of the space-based instruments becomes more prevalent. Only about 50% of individual instruments are found to be beneficial in this experiment configuration, with the most important role played by radiosondes. Thereafter, Meteosat Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) (only for short range forecast) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) are second and third, followed by surface observations, Sounder for Probing Vertical Profiles of Humidity (SAPHIR) radiances and pilot observations. Results of the additional experiments of comparative performance of SSM/I total precipitable water (TPW), Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS), and SAPHIR radiances indicate that SSM/I is the most important instrument followed by SAPHIR and MHS for improving the quality of the forecast over the Indian region. Further, the impact of single SAPHIR instrument (onboard Megha-Tropiques) is significantly larger compared to three MHS instruments (onboard NOAA-18/19 and MetOp-A).

  2. Impact of Plasma Sheath on Rocket-based E-region Ion Measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Imtiaz, N.; Burchill, J. K.; Marchand, R.

    2013-12-01

    We model the particle velocity distribution functions around the entrance window of the Suprathermal Ion Imager (SII) to assess the impact of electrostatic sheath on ion measurements in the E-region ionosphere. The SII sensor is an electrostatic analyzer that measures two dimensional slices of the distribution of the kinetic energies and arrival-angles of low energy ions. The study is concerned with the interpretation of data obtained from the sensor SII that was affixed to a 1-m NASA rocket 36.234 as part of the Joule II mission to investigate Joule heating in the E-region ionosphere. The rocket flew into quiet auroral conditions above Northern Alaska on 19 January 2007. The payload was spin-stabilitized with a period of 1.6 s, giving an apparent rotation of the ion flow velocity in the frame of reference of the SII. We numerically investigate the ram velocity effect on the ions velocity distributions in the vicinity of SII aperture at an altitudes of approximately 150km. The electrostatic sheath potential profiles surrounding the sensor and payload are calculated numerically with the PIC code PTetra. It is observed that the direction of the ion flow velocity vector modifies the plasma sheath potential profile. This in turn impacts the velocity distributions of molecular oxygen and Nitric oxideions at the aperture of the particle sensor. The velocity distribution functions are calculated by using test-particle modeling. These particle distribution functions are then used to inject the particles in the particle sensor, and to calculate the fluxes on the sensor microchannel plate (MCP).

  3. Impact of burned areas on the northern African seasonal climate from the perspective of regional modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Sales, F.; Xue, Y.; Okin, G. S.

    2014-12-01

    This study presents an investigation of the impact of burned areas on the surface energy balance and monthly precipitation in the northern Africa as simulated by a state-of-the-art regional model. Mean burned area fraction derived from MODIS approximate date of burning product were implemented in a set of 1-year long WRF/NMM/SSiB2 model simulations. Vegetation cover fraction and LAI were degraded daily based on mean burned area fraction and on the survival rate for each vegetation land cover type. Additionally, ground darkening associated with wildfire-induced ash and charcoal deposition was temporarily imposed through lower ground albedo for a period of 10 days after burning. In general, wildfire-induced vegetation and ground degradation increased surface albedo by exposing the brighter bare ground of the region, which in turn caused a decrease in surface net radiation and evapotranspiration in northern sub-saharan Africa. A decrease in atmospheric moisture flux convergence was simulated in the burned area experiments, which plays a dominant role in reducing precipitation over the area, especially in the months preceding the West African monsoon onset. The areas with largest impacts were those covered by forests and savanna, where annual precipitation decreased by 4.2% and 3.6%, respectively. This study suggests the cooling and drying of atmosphere induced by burned areas led to strengthening of subsidence during pre-onset and weakening of upward motion during onset and mature stages of the monsoon leading to a waning of convective instability and precipitation. Monthly vertical wind over the area showed a strengthening of downward motion in winter and spring seasons, and weakening of upward movement during the rainy months. Furthermore, precipitation energy analysis revealed that most of precipitation decrease originated from convective events, especially for those with daily precipitation rates above 2.0 mm day-1, which substantiates the hypothesis of convective

  4. Climate change impact on shallow groundwater conditions in Hungary: Conclusions from a regional modelling study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kovács, Attila; Marton, Annamária; Tóth, György; Szöcs, Teodóra

    2016-04-01

    A quantitative methodology has been developed for the calculation of groundwater table based on measured and simulated climate parameters. The aim of the study was to develop a toolset which can be used for the calculation of shallow groundwater conditions for various climate scenarios. This was done with the goal of facilitating the assessment of climate impact and vulnerability of shallow groundwater resources. The simulated groundwater table distributions are representative of groundwater conditions at the regional scale. The introduced methodology is valid for modelling purposes at various scales and thus represents a versatile tool for the assessment of climate vulnerability of shallow groundwater bodies. The calculation modules include the following: 1. A toolset to calculate climate zonation from climate parameter grids, 2. Delineation of recharge zones (Hydrological Response Units, HRUs) based on geology, landuse and slope conditions, 3. Calculation of percolation (recharge) rates using 1D analytical hydrological models, 4. Simulation of the groundwater table using numerical groundwater flow models. The applied methodology provides a quantitative link between climate conditions and shallow groundwater conditions, and thus can be used for assessing climate impacts. The climate data source applied in our calculation comprised interpolated daily climate data of the Central European CARPATCLIM database. Climate zones were determined making use of the Thorntwaite climate zonation scheme. Recharge zones (HRUs) were determined based on surface geology, landuse and slope conditions. The HELP hydrological model was used for the calculation of 1D water balance for hydrological response units. The MODFLOW numerical groundwater modelling code was used for the calculation of the water table. The developed methodology was demonstrated through the simulation of regional groundwater table using spatially averaged climate data and hydrogeological properties for various time

  5. Global and Regional Impacts of HONO on the Chemical Composition of Clouds and Aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elshorbany, Y. F.; Crutzen, P. J.; Steil, B.; Pozzer, A.; Tost, H.; Lelieveld, J.

    2014-01-01

    Recently, realistic simulation of nitrous acid (HONO) based on the HONO / NOx ratio of 0.02 was found to have a significant impact on the global budgets of HOx (OH + HO2) and gas phase oxidation products in polluted regions, especially in winter when other photolytic sources are of minor importance. It has been reported that chemistry-transport models underestimate sulphate concentrations, mostly during winter. Here we show that simulating realistic HONO levels can significantly enhance aerosol sulphate (S(VI)) due to the increased formation of H2SO4. Even though in-cloud aqueous phase oxidation of dissolved SO2 (S(IV)) is the main source of S(VI), it appears that HONO related enhancement of H2O2 does not significantly affect sulphate because of the predominantly S(IV) limited conditions, except over eastern Asia. Nitrate is also increased via enhanced gaseous HNO3 formation and N2O5 hydrolysis on aerosol particles. Ammonium nitrate is enhanced in ammonia-rich regions but not under ammonia-limited conditions. Furthermore, particle number concentrations are also higher, accompanied by the transfer from hydrophobic to hydrophilic aerosol modes. This implies a significant impact on the particle lifetime and cloud nucleating properties. The HONO induced enhancements of all species studied are relatively strong in winter though negligible in summer. Simulating realistic HONO levels is found to improve the model measurement agreement of sulphate aerosols, most apparent over the US. Our results underscore the importance of HONO for the atmospheric oxidizing capacity and corroborate the central role of cloud chemical processing in S(IV) formation

  6. Global and Regional Impacts of HONO on the Chemical Composition of Clouds and Aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elshorbany, Y. F.; Crutzen, P. J.; Steil, B.; Pozzer, A.; Tost, H.; Lelieveld, J.

    2014-01-01

    Recently, realistic simulation of nitrous acid (HONO) based on the HONO/NO(sub x) ratio of 0.02 was found to have a significant impact on the global budgets of HO(sub x) (OH + HO2) and gas phase oxidation products in polluted regions, especially in winter when other photolytic sources are of minor importance. It has been reported that chemistry-transport models underestimate sulphate concentrations, mostly during winter. Here we show that simulating realistic HONO levels can significantly enhance aerosol sulphate (S(VI)) due to the increased formation of H2SO4. Even though in-cloud aqueous phase oxidation of dissolved SO2 (S(IV)) is the main source of S(VI), it appears that HONO related enhancement of H2O2 does not significantly affect sulphate because of the predominantly S(IV) limited conditions, except over eastern Asia. Nitrate is also increased via enhanced gaseous HNO3 formation and N2O5 hydrolysis on aerosol particles. Ammonium nitrate is enhanced in ammonia-rich regions but not under ammonia-limited conditions. Furthermore, particle number concentrations are also higher, accompanied by the transfer from hydrophobic to hydrophilic aerosol modes. This implies a significant impact on the particle lifetime and cloud nucleating properties. The HONO induced enhancements of all species studied are relatively strong in winter though negligible in summer. Simulating realistic HONO levels is found to improve the model measurement agreement of sulphate aerosols, most apparent over the US. Our results underscore the importance of HONO for the atmospheric oxidizing capacity and corroborate the central role of cloud chemical processing in S(IV) formation.

  7. An Optimal Hierarchical Decision Model for a Regional Logistics Network with Environmental Impact Consideration

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Dezhi; Li, Shuangyan

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a new model of simultaneous optimization of three-level logistics decisions, for logistics authorities, logistics operators, and logistics users, for regional logistics network with environmental impact consideration. The proposed model addresses the interaction among the three logistics players in a complete competitive logistics service market with CO2 emission charges. We also explicitly incorporate the impacts of the scale economics of the logistics park and the logistics users' demand elasticity into the model. The logistics authorities aim to maximize the total social welfare of the system, considering the demand of green logistics development by two different methods: optimal location of logistics nodes and charging a CO2 emission tax. Logistics operators are assumed to compete with logistics service fare and frequency, while logistics users minimize their own perceived logistics disutility given logistics operators' service fare and frequency. A heuristic algorithm based on the multinomial logit model is presented for the three-level decision model, and a numerical example is given to illustrate the above optimal model and its algorithm. The proposed model provides a useful tool for modeling competitive logistics services and evaluating logistics policies at the strategic level. PMID:24977209

  8. An optimal hierarchical decision model for a regional logistics network with environmental impact consideration.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Dezhi; Li, Shuangyan; Qin, Jin

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a new model of simultaneous optimization of three-level logistics decisions, for logistics authorities, logistics operators, and logistics users, for regional logistics network with environmental impact consideration. The proposed model addresses the interaction among the three logistics players in a complete competitive logistics service market with CO2 emission charges. We also explicitly incorporate the impacts of the scale economics of the logistics park and the logistics users' demand elasticity into the model. The logistics authorities aim to maximize the total social welfare of the system, considering the demand of green logistics development by two different methods: optimal location of logistics nodes and charging a CO2 emission tax. Logistics operators are assumed to compete with logistics service fare and frequency, while logistics users minimize their own perceived logistics disutility given logistics operators' service fare and frequency. A heuristic algorithm based on the multinomial logit model is presented for the three-level decision model, and a numerical example is given to illustrate the above optimal model and its algorithm. The proposed model provides a useful tool for modeling competitive logistics services and evaluating logistics policies at the strategic level.

  9. Deforestation impacts on soil organic carbon stocks in the Semiarid Chaco Region, Argentina.

    PubMed

    Villarino, Sebastián Horacio; Studdert, Guillermo Alberto; Baldassini, Pablo; Cendoya, María Gabriela; Ciuffoli, Lucía; Mastrángelo, Matias; Piñeiro, Gervasio

    2017-01-01

    Land use change affects soil organic carbon (SOC) and generates CO2 emissions. Moreover, SOC depletion entails degradation of soil functions that support ecosystem services. Large areas covered by dry forests have been cleared in the Semiarid Chaco Region of Argentina for cropping expansion. However, deforestation impacts on the SOC stock and its distribution in the soil profile have been scarcely reported. We assessed these impacts based on the analysis of field data along a time-since-deforestation-for-cropping chronosequence, and remote sensing indices. Soil organic C was determined up to 100cm depth and physically fractionated into mineral associated organic carbon (MAOC) and particulate organic C (POC). Models describing vertical distribution of SOC were fitted. Total SOC, POC and MAOC stocks decreased markedly with increasing cropping age. Particulate organic C was the most sensitive fraction to cultivation. After 10yr of cropping SOC loss was around 30%, with greater POC loss (near 60%) and smaller MAOC loss (near 15%), at 0-30cm depth. Similar relative SOC losses were observed in deeper soil layers (30-60 and 60-100cm). Deforestation and subsequent cropping also modified SOC vertical distribution. Soil organic C loss was negatively associated with the proportion of maize in the rotation and total crop biomass inputs, but positively associated with the proportion of soybean in the rotation. Without effective land use polices, deforestation and agricultural expansion can lead to rapid soil degradation and reductions in the provision of important ecosystem services.

  10. Assessing the regional impacts of increased energy maize cultivation on farmland birds.

    PubMed

    Brandt, Karoline; Glemnitz, Michael

    2014-02-01

    The increasing cultivation of energy crops in Germany substantially affects the habitat function of agricultural landscapes. Precise ex ante evaluations regarding the impacts of this cultivation on farmland bird populations are rare. The objective of this paper was to implement a methodology to assess the regional impacts of increasing energy maize cultivation on the habitat quality of agricultural lands for farmland birds. We selected five farmland bird indicator species with varying habitat demands. Using a crop suitability modelling approach, we analysed the availability of potential habitat areas according to different land use scenarios for a real landscape in Northeast Germany. The model was based on crop architecture, cultivation period, and landscape preconditions. Our results showed that the habitat suitability of different crops varied between bird species, and scenario calculations revealed an increase and a decrease in the size of the potential breeding and feeding habitats, respectively. The effects observed in scenario 1 (increased energy maize by 15%) were not reproduced in all cases in scenario 2 (increased energy maize by 30%). Spatial aggregation of energy maize resulted in a negative effect for some species. Changes in the composition of the farmland bird communities, the negative effects on farmland bird species limited in distribution and spread and the relevance of the type of agricultural land use being replaced by energy crops are also discussed. In conclusion, we suggest a trade-off between biodiversity and energy targets by identifying biodiversity-friendly energy cropping systems.

  11. The impact of regional Arctic sea ice loss on atmospheric circulation and the NAO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anker Pedersen, Rasmus; Cvijanovic, Ivana; Langen, Peter Lang; Vinther, Bo

    2016-04-01

    Reduction of the Arctic sea ice cover can affect the atmospheric circulation, and thus impact the climate beyond the Arctic. The atmospheric response may, however, vary with the geographical location of sea ice loss. The atmospheric sensitivity to the location of sea ice loss is studied using a general circulation model in a configuration that allows combination of a prescribed sea ice cover and an active mixed layer ocean. This hybrid setup makes it possible to simulate the isolated impact of sea ice loss and provides a more complete response compared to experiments with fixed sea surface temperatures. Three investigated sea ice scenarios with ice loss in different regions all exhibit substantial near-surface warming which peaks over the area of ice loss. The maximum warming is found during winter, delayed compared to the maximum sea ice reduction. The wintertime response of the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation shows a non-uniform sensitivity to the location of sea ice reduction. While all three scenarios exhibit decreased zonal winds related to high-latitude geopotential height increases, the magnitudes and locations of the anomalies vary between the simulations. Investigation of the North Atlantic Oscillation reveals a high sensitivity to the location of the ice loss. The northern center of action exhibits clear shifts in response to the different sea ice reductions. Sea ice loss in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic cause westward and eastward shifts, respectively.

  12. Impacts of flare emissions from an ethylene plant shutdown to regional air quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Ziyuan; Wang, Sujing; Xu, Qiang; Ho, Thomas

    2016-08-01

    Critical operations of chemical process industry (CPI) plants such as ethylene plant shutdowns could emit a huge amount of VOCs and NOx, which may result in localized and transient ozone pollution events. In this paper, a general methodology for studying dynamic ozone impacts associated with flare emissions from ethylene plant shutdowns has been developed. This multi-scale simulation study integrates process knowledge of plant shutdown emissions in terms of flow rate and speciation together with regional air-quality modeling to quantitatively investigate the sensitivity of ground-level ozone change due to an ethylene plant shutdown. The study shows the maximum hourly ozone increments can vary significantly by different plant locations and temporal factors including background ozone data and solar radiation intensity. It helps provide a cost-effective air-quality control strategy for industries by choosing the optimal starting time of plant shutdown operations in terms of minimizing the induced ozone impact (reduced from 34.1 ppb to 1.2 ppb in the performed case studies). This study provides valuable technical supports for both CPI and environmental policy makers on cost-effective air-quality controls in the future.

  13. Adapting to Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vimont, D.; Liebl, D.

    2012-12-01

    The mission of the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI; http://www.wicci.wisc.edu) is to assess the impacts of climate change on Wisconsin's natural, human, and built environments; and to assist in developing, recommending, and implementing climate adaptation strategies in Wisconsin. WICCI originated in 2007 as a partnership between the University of Wisconsin Nelson Institute and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, and has since grown to include numerous other state, public, and private institutions. In 2011, WICCI released its First Assessment Report, which documents the efforts of over 200 individuals around the state in assessing vulnerability and estimating the risk that regional climate change poses to Wisconsin. The success of WICCI as an organization can be traced to its existence as a partnership between academic and state institutions, and as a boundary organization that catalyzes cross-disciplinary efforts between science and policy. WICCI's organizational structure and its past success at assessing climate impacts in Wisconsin will be briefly discussed. As WICCI moves into its second phase, it is increasing its emphasis on the second part of its mission: development, and implementation of adaptation strategies. Towards these goals WICCI has expanded its organizational structure to include a Communications and Outreach Committee that further ensures a necessary two-way communication of information between stakeholders / decision makers, and scientific efforts. WICCI is also increasing its focus on place-based efforts that include climate change information as one part of an integrated effort at sustainable development. The talk will include a discussion of current outreach and education efforts, as well as future directions for WICCI efforts.

  14. Current and potential impacts of mosquitoes and the pathogens they vector in the Pacific region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    LaPointe, Dennis

    2007-01-01

    Mosquitoes and the pathogens they transmit are ubiquitous throughout most of the temperate and tropical regions of the world. The natural and pre-European distribution and diversity of mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases throughout much of the Pacific region, however, depicts a depauperate and relatively benign fauna reinforcing the dream of “paradise regained”. In the central and South Pacific few mosquito species were able to colonize the remotest islands and atolls. Native mosquitoes are limited to a few far-ranging species and island endemics are typically restricted to the genera of Aedes and Culex. Only lymphatic filariasis appears to have been present as an endemic mosquito-borne disease before European contact. In nearby Australia, however, some 242 species of mosquitoes are known to occur and more than 70 arboviruses have been identified (Mackenzie 1999). In this regard Australia is more similar to the rest of the tropic and subtropical world than the smaller islands of Oceania. In our ever-shrinking world of global commerce, military activity and travel, the nature of mosquito-borne disease in the Pacific was bound to change. This paper is a brief summary of introduced mosquitoes in the Pacific and their potential impacts on human and wildlife health.

  15. The Balmer basin - Regional geology and geochemistry of an ancient lunar impact basin

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maxwell, T. A.; Andre, C. G.

    1982-01-01

    Photogeologic, geochemical and geophysical information is cited to support the contention that an ancient multi-ringed basin exists in the east limb region of the moon, centered at 15 deg S and 70 deg E. The inner ring of the basin, with a diameter of 225 km, is composed of isolated rugged mountains of pre-Nectarian terra; the less distinct outer ring, whose diameter is approximately 450 km, is made up of irregular segments of surrounding large craters. It is noted that two units of light plains material occur in this area and that they are confined for the most part to the region within the proposed outer basin ring. According to orbital geochemical data, the younger unit (Imbrian age plains) consists of a mare basalt not unlike others of the nearside. This unit possesses high Mg/Al concentration ratios as determined from X-ray fluorescence data; it is also relatively high in Th and Fe when compared with the surrounding highlands. It is thought that the relatively high albedo of the Balmer plains may derive from either a reworking by numerous secondary craters from the surrounding impacts or a basaltic composition with higher albedo and lower Fe than the nearside maria.

  16. The negative impacts of human activities in the eastern African region: an international waters perspective.

    PubMed

    Payet, Rolph; Obura, David

    2004-02-01

    The complex interactions between human activities and the environment at the interface of land and water is analyzed with a focus on the Somali Current (East Africa), and Indian Ocean Island States, subregions of the Global International Waters Assessment (GIWA). These 2 subregions contain some of the world's richest ecosystems, including the high biodiversity forests of Madagascar and the diverse coastal habitats of the eastern African coast. These ecosystems support local communities and national and regional economies. Current and future degradation of these systems, from water basins to continental shelves, affects the livelihoods and sustainability of the countries in the region, and long-term efforts to reduce poverty. The assessments determined that pollution and climate change are the primary environmental and social concerns in the Islands of the Indian Ocean, while freshwater shortage and unsustainable exploitation of fisheries and other living resources are the primary environmental and social concerns in East Africa. The GIWA approach, through assessing root causes of environmental concerns, enables the development of policy approaches for mitigating environmental degradation. This paper explores policy frameworks for mitigating the impacts, and reducing the drivers, of 3 environmental concerns--freshwater shortage; solid waste pollution; and climate change--addressing social and institutional causes and effects, and linking the subregions to broad international frameworks. The common theme in all 3 case studies is the need to develop integrated ecosystem and international waters policies, and mechanisms to manage conflicting interests and to limit threats to natural processes.

  17. An oil spill accident and its impact on ozone levels in the surrounding coastal regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Sang-Keun; Shon, Zang-Ho; Kim, Yoo-Keun; Kang, Yoon-Hee; Kim, Ki-Hyun

    2011-02-01

    An oil spill on the west coast of the Republic of Korea was investigated with regard to its impact on ozone (O 3) concentration levels in the surrounding regions. The accident occurred on December 7, 2007 with the total estimate of 12,500 tons of Iranian Heavy plus Kuwait Export crude oils. The evaporation rates of the volatile hydrocarbon fractions in these crude oils were estimated based on the molar fractions of crude oils and their mass transfer coefficients. Their emission rates parameterized with several key environmental parameters (e.g., wind speed, seawater temperature, and salinity) along with oil type information were then applied in the 3-D chemical transport model. Photochemical production of O 3 in winter just after the accident was relatively insignificant due to very low photochemical activity. For the case/sensitivity study, the photochemical production of O 3 simulated under the hot summer weather conditions was predicted to be significant at the same magnitude of the oil spill. This study confirms that an oil spill, if occurring around coastal regions, can alter O 3 levels to a large extent depending on the meteorological conditions.

  18. Impact of climate change on snow melt driven runoff timing over the Alpine region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coppola, Erika; Raffaele, Francesca; Giorgi, Filippo

    2016-08-01

    We investigate the climate change impact on snowmelt-driven runoff (SDR) over the Alpine region using the output from two Med-CORDEX and two EURO-CORDEX regional climate model projections (RCP8.5 scenario) at two resolutions (12, 50 km) driven by a sub-set of the CMIP5 GCMs. Comparison with the European Water Archive observed runoff dataset (242 stations) over the Alps shows a good performance by the higher resolution models in representing present day SDR, with the lower resolution simulations being less accurate in capturing the SDR timing. In the future projections all the models show a temperature increase of up to 4° by the end of the 21st century throughout the Alps and this leads to an anticipation of SDR timing throughout the year that can span from 1 to 3 months depending on the model horizontal resolution. These timing changes are associated with changes in snow cover modulated by the complex Alpine topography. In fact, model resolution plays a critical role in regulating the magnitude, timing and spatial distribution of the response of snow cover and SDR to warming. We find that the accurate simulation of changes in runoff timing requires a high resolution representation of the Alpine topography, and can be important for water storage regulations concerning energy production, agriculture and domestic use.

  19. Forecasting climate change impacts to plant community composition in the Sonoran Desert region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Munson, Seth M.; Webb, Robert H.; Belnap, Jayne; Hubbard, J. Andrew; Swann, Don E.; Rutman, Sue

    2012-01-01

    Hotter and drier conditions projected for the southwestern United States can have a large impact on the abundance and composition of long-lived desert plant species. We used long-term vegetation monitoring results from 39 large plots across four protected sites in the Sonoran Desert region to determine how plant species have responded to past climate variability. This cross-site analysis identified the plant species and functional types susceptible to climate change, the magnitude of their responses, and potential climate thresholds. In the relatively mesic mesquite savanna communities, perennial grasses declined with a decrease in annual precipitation, cacti increased, and there was a reversal of the Prosopis velutina expansion experienced in the 20th century in response to increasing mean annual temperature (MAT). In the more xeric Arizona Upland communities, the dominant leguminous tree, Cercidium microphyllum, declined on hillslopes, and the shrub Fouquieria splendens decreased, especially on south- and west-facing slopes in response to increasing MAT. In the most xeric shrublands, the codominant species Larrea tridentata and its hemiparasite Krameria grayi decreased with a decrease in cool season precipitation and increased aridity, respectively. This regional-scale assessment of plant species response to recent climate variability is critical for forecasting future shifts in plant community composition, structure, and productivity.

  20. Impact of an extreme dry and hot summer on water supply security in an alpine region.

    PubMed

    Vanham, D; Fleischhacker, E; Rauch, W

    2009-01-01

    Climate change will induce an increasing drought risk in western and southern Europe and a resulting increase in water stress. This paper investigates the impact of both the extreme hot and dry summer of 2003 and the PRUDENCE CHRM climate change scenario summer for 2071-2100 on the monthly water balance (available water resources versus water demand) within the Kitzbueheler Region in the Austrian Alps. As a baseline period the climate normal period from 1961 to 1990 was chosen. In both summer scenarios total flow and ground water recharge decrease substantially, due to the decrease in precipitation and increase in evapotranspiration However, regional water availability is still sufficient to serve all water demand stakeholders. As a result of decreased snow cover duration, flow seasonality changes within the CHRM scenario. Especially springs are very vulnerable to these climatological conditions; average local groundwater recharge is reduced by 20% up to 70% within both scenarios. Due to the hydrogeological characteristics of the case study area and the typical small structured alpine water supply infrastructure, local deficits can occur. But also groundwater aquifers in the valleys show a decrease in water availability. These results are supported by observations made in 2003 throughout Austria and Switzerland.

  1. The use of regional advance mitigation planning (RAMP) to integrate transportation infrastructure impacts with sustainability; a perspective from the USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thorne, James H.; Huber, Patrick R.; O'Donoghue, Elizabeth; Santos, Maria J.

    2014-05-01

    Globally, urban areas are expanding, and their regional, spatially cumulative, environmental impacts from transportation projects are not typically assessed. However, incorporation of a Regional Advance Mitigation Planning (RAMP) framework can promote more effective, ecologically sound, and less expensive environmental mitigation. As a demonstration of the first phase of the RAMP framework, we assessed environmental impacts from 181 planned transportation projects in the 19 368 km2 San Francisco Bay Area. We found that 107 road and railroad projects will impact 2411-3490 ha of habitat supporting 30-43 threatened or endangered species. In addition, 1175 ha of impacts to agriculture and native vegetation are expected, as well as 125 crossings of waterways supporting anadromous fish species. The extent of these spatially cumulative impacts shows the need for a regional approach to associated environmental offsets. Many of the impacts were comprised of numerous small projects, where project-by-project mitigation would result in increased transaction costs, land costs, and lost project time. Ecological gains can be made if a regional approach is taken through the avoidance of small-sized reserves and the ability to target parcels for acquisition that fit within conservation planning designs. The methods are straightforward, and can be used in other metropolitan areas.

  2. Regional Impacts of Climate Change on the Amazon Rainforest: 2080-2100

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cook, K. H.; Vizy, E. K.

    2006-12-01

    A regional climate model with resolution of 60 km is coupled with a potential vegetation model to simulate future climate over South America. The following steps are taken to effectively communicate the results across disciplines and to make them useful to the policy and impacts communities: the simulation is aimed at a particular time period (2081-2100), the climate change results are translated into changes in vegetation distribution, and the results are reported on regional space scales relative to political boundaries. In addition, the model validation in clearly presented to provide perspective on uncertainty for the prognosis. The model reproduces today's climate and vegetation over tropical and subtropical South America accurately. In simulations of the future, the model is forced by the IPCC's A2 scenario of future emissions, which assumes that CO2 emissions continue to grow at essentially today's rate throughout the 21st century, reaching 757 ppmv averaged over 2081-2100. The model is constrained on its lateral boundaries by atmospheric conditions simulated by a global climate model, applied as anomalies to present day conditions, and predicted changes in sea surface temperatures. The extent of the Amazon rainforest is reduced by about 70 per cent in the simulation, and the shrubland (caatinga) vegetation of Brazil's Nordeste region spreads westward and southward well into the continental interior. Bolivia, Paraguay, and Argentina lose all of their rainforest vegetation, and Brazil and Peru lose most of it. The surviving rain forest is concentrated near the equator. Columbia's rainforest survives largely intact and, along the northern coast, Venezuela and French Guiana suffer relatively small reductions. The loss in Guyana and Surinam is 30-50 per cent. Much of the rainforest in the central Amazon north of about 15S is replaced by savanna vegetation, but in southern Bolivia, northern Paraguay, and southern Brazil, grasslands take the place of the

  3. Supporting work practices through telehealth: impact on nurses in peripheral regions

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background In Canada, workforce shortages in the health care sector constrain the ability of the health care system to meet the needs of its population and of its health care professionals. This issue is of particular importance in peripheral regions of Quebec, where significant inequalities in workforce distribution between regions has lead to acute nursing shortages and increased workloads. Information and communication technologies (ICTs) are innovative solutions that can be used to develop strategies to optimise the use of available resources and to design new nursing work practices. However, current knowledge is still limited about the real impact of ICTs on nursing recruitment and retention. Our aim is to better understand how work practice reorganization, supported by ICTs, and particularly by telehealth, may influence professional, educational, and organizational factors relating to Quebec nurses, notably those working in peripheral regions. Methods/Design First, we will conduct a descriptive study on the issue of nursing recruitment. Stratified sampling will be used to select approximately twenty innovative projects relating to the reorganization of work practices based upon ICTs. Semi-structured interviews with key informants will determine professional, educational, and organizational recruitment factors. The results will be used to create a questionnaire which, using a convenience sampling method, will be mailed to 600 third year students and recent graduates of two Quebec university nursing faculties. Descriptive, correlation, and hierarchical regression analyses will be performed to identify factors influencing nursing graduates' intentions to practice in peripheral regions. Secondly, we will conduct five case studies pertaining to the issue of nursing retention. Five ICT projects in semi-urban, rural, and isolated regions have been identified. Qualitative data will be collected through field observation and approximately fifty semi

  4. Impact of burned areas on the northern African seasonal climate from the perspective of regional modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Sales, Fernando; Xue, Yongkang; Okin, Gregory S.

    2016-12-01

    This study investigates the impact of burned areas on the surface energy balance and monthly precipitation in northern Africa as simulated by a state-of-the-art regional model. Mean burned area fraction derived from MODIS date of burning product was implemented in a set of 1-year long WRF-NMM/SSiB2 model simulations. Vegetation cover fraction and LAI were degraded daily based on mean burned area fraction and on the survival rate for each vegetation land cover type. Additionally, ground darkening associated with wildfire-induced ash and charcoal deposition was imposed through lower ground albedo for a period after burning. In general, wildfire-induced vegetation and ground condition deterioration increased mean surface albedo by exposing the brighter bare ground, which in turn caused a decrease in monthly surface net radiation. On average, the wildfire-season albedo increase was approximately 6.3 % over the Sahel. The associated decrease in surface available energy caused a drop in surface sensible heat flux to the atmosphere during the dry months of winter and early spring, which gradually transitioned to a more substantial decrease in surface evapotranspiration in April and May that lessened throughout the rainy season. Overall, post-fire land condition deterioration resulted in a decrease in precipitation over sub-Saharan Africa, associated with the weakening of the West African monsoon progression through the region. A decrease in atmospheric moisture flux convergence was observed in the burned area simulations, which played a dominant role in reducing precipitation in the area, especially in the months preceding the monsoon onset. The areas with the largest precipitation impact were those covered by savannas and rainforests, where annual precipitation decreased by 3.8 and 3.3 %, respectively. The resulting precipitation decrease and vegetation deterioration caused a drop in gross primary productivity in the region, which was strongest in late winter and early

  5. Impacts of Marcellus Shale Natural Gas Production on Regional Air Quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swarthout, R.; Russo, R. S.; Zhou, Y.; Mitchell, B.; Miller, B.; Lipsky, E. M.; Sive, B. C.

    2012-12-01

    Natural gas is a clean burning alternative to other fossil fuels, producing lower carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions during combustion. Gas deposits located within shale rock or tight sand formations are difficult to access using conventional drilling techniques. However, horizontal drilling coupled with hydraulic fracturing is now widely used to enhance natural gas extraction. Potential environmental impacts of these practices are currently being assessed because of the rapid expansion of natural gas production in the U.S. Natural gas production has contributed to the deterioration of air quality in several regions, such as in Wyoming and Utah, that were near or downwind of natural gas basins. We conducted a field campaign in southwestern Pennsylvania on 16-18 June 2012 to investigate the impact of gas production operations in the Marcellus Shale on regional air quality. A total of 235 whole air samples were collected in 2-liter electropolished stainless- steel canisters throughout southwestern Pennsylvania in a regular grid pattern that covered an area of approximately 8500 square km. Day and night samples were collected at each grid point and additional samples were collected near active wells, flaring wells, fluid retention reservoirs, transmission pipelines, and a processing plant to assess the influence of different stages of the gas production operation on emissions. The samples were analyzed at Appalachian State University for methane (CH4), CO2, C2-C10 nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs), C1-C2 halocarbons, C1-C5 alkyl nitrates and selected reduced sulfur compounds. In-situ measurements of ozone (O3), CH4, CO2, nitric oxide (NO), total reactive nitrogen (NOy), formaldehyde (HCHO), and a range of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were carried out at an upwind site and a site near active gas wells using a mobile lab. Emissions associated with gas production were observed throughout the study region. Elevated mixing ratios of CH4 and CO2 were observed in the

  6. Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Thermodynamic Profiles on Regional Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Jedlovee, Gary J.

    2010-01-01

    In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles with accuracy comparable to that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model using its three-dimension variational (3DVAR) analysis component (WRF-Var). Quality indicators are used to select only the highest quality temperature and moisture profiles for assimilation in both clear and partly cloudy regions. Separate error characteristics for land and water profiles are also used in the assimilation process. Assimilation results indicate that AIRS profiles produce an analysis closer to in situ observations than the background field. Forecasts from a 37-day case study period in the winter of 2007 show that AIRS profile data can lead to improvements in 6-h cumulative precipitation forecasts due to instability added in the forecast soundings by the AIRS profiles. Additionally, in a convective heavy rainfall event from February 2007, assimilation of AIRS profiles produces a more unstable boundary layer resulting in enhanced updrafts in the model. These updrafts produce a squall line and precipitation totals that more closely reflect ground-based observations than a no AIRS control forecast. The location of available high-quality AIRS profiles ahead of approaching storm systems is found to be of paramount importance to the amount of impact the observations will have on the resulting forecasts.

  7. Forty years of improvements in European air quality: regional policy-industry interactions with global impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crippa, Monica; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Dentener, Frank; Guizzardi, Diego; Sindelarova, Katerina; Muntean, Marilena; Van Dingenen, Rita; Granier, Claire

    2016-03-01

    The EDGARv4.3.1 (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research) global anthropogenic emissions inventory of gaseous (SO2, NOx, CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds and NH3) and particulate (PM10, PM2.5, black and organic carbon) air pollutants for the period 1970-2010 is used to develop retrospective air pollution emissions scenarios to quantify the roles and contributions of changes in energy consumption and efficiency, technology progress and end-of-pipe emission reduction measures and their resulting impact on health and crop yields at European and global scale. The reference EDGARv4.3.1 emissions include observed and reported changes in activity data, fuel consumption and air pollution abatement technologies over the past 4 decades, combined with Tier 1 and region-specific Tier 2 emission factors. Two further retrospective scenarios assess the interplay of policy and industry. The highest emission STAG_TECH scenario assesses the impact of the technology and end-of-pipe reduction measures in the European Union, by considering historical fuel consumption, along with a stagnation of technology with constant emission factors since 1970, and assuming no further abatement measures and improvement imposed by European emission standards. The lowest emission STAG_ENERGY scenario evaluates the impact of increased fuel consumption by considering unchanged energy consumption since the year 1970, but assuming the technological development, end-of-pipe reductions, fuel mix and energy efficiency of 2010. Our scenario analysis focuses on the three most important and most regulated sectors (power generation, manufacturing industry and road transport), which are subject to multi-pollutant European Union Air Quality regulations. Stagnation of technology and air pollution reduction measures at 1970 levels would have led to 129 % (or factor 2.3) higher SO2, 71 % higher NOx and 69 % higher PM2.5 emissions in Europe (EU27), demonstrating the large role that technology has

  8. Impact of oil spill from ship on air quality around coastal regions of Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shon, Zang-Ho; Song, Sang-Keun

    2010-05-01

    Regional air quality around coastal regions, where regular maritime traffic emissions from cargo, other commercial, fishing and military vessels are significantly active, can be affected by their direct emission of primary air pollutants (NOx, SO2, particulate matter (PM), etc.). For instance, harbor traffic exerted an important impact on NO2, SO2, O3, and PM levels. In addition, regional air quality around coastal regions is also affected by oil spill caused by ship accident in the coast. On 7 Dec., 2007, a barge carrying a crane hit the oil tanker MT Hebei Sprit off the west coast of the Republic of Korea, Yellow Sea (approximately 10 km off the coast), at 0700 local time, causing the spill of total estimated 12,547 tons of Iranian heavy (IH) and Kuwait Export (KE) crude oils. Since then, oil began coming on shore late in the night on 7 Dec. More than 150 km of coastline had been identified as being impacted by 17 Dec. Much of the affected area is part of the Taean-gun National Park and the nearest coastal city to spilled area is Taean. On 8 Dec., the flow of oil from the tanker was stopped when the holes were patched. The accident is the worst oil spill in Korea and the spill area is about one-third of the size of the Exxon Valdez oil spill. The short- and long-term effects of oil spill on marine environment have been numerously studied, not on atmospheric environment. In this study, the air quality impact near spilled area by the evaporation of hydrocarbons from the oil spill is studied in detail. The evaporation rates of the volatile fractions of the crude oils released by oil spill were estimated based on their mole fractions of crude oils and mass transfer coefficients. Based on a molecular diffusion process, the flux of spilled oil component (Fivap, mol m-2 s-1) can be expressed as follows: Fivap = Kivap(Civap - C∞vap) (1) where Civap is concentration (mol m-3) of a component i of crude oil vapor in the air at the oil-air interface; C∞vap is the

  9. Regional Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources: the Jucar River Basin, Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chirivella Osma, V.; Capilla, J. E.; Perez Martin, M.; Sanchez Fuster, I.

    2011-12-01

    precipitation scenarios for 2010-40. Thus, the impact on water resources shows a great degree of dispersion, ranging from -13.45 to 18.1% with a mean value of -2.13%. These results question the suitability of current GCM results and downscaling techniques to generate future climate scenarios in the JB area. Moreover, they raise the need to apply downscaling methodologies able to honor known spatial patterns of rainfall, and the clear necessity of analyzing how accurate are GCM results for regional analyses in the area.

  10. A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

  11. On the long-term impact of emissions from central European cities on regional air quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huszar, P.; Belda, M.; Halenka, T.

    2016-02-01

    For the purpose of qualifying and quantifying the impact of urban emission from Central European cities on the present-day regional air quality, the regional climate model RegCM4.2 was coupled with the chemistry transport model CAMx, including two-way interactions. A series of simulations was carried out for the 2001-2010 period either with all urban emissions included (base case) or without considering urban emissions. Further, the sensitivity of ozone production to urban emissions was examined by performing reduction experiments with -20 % emission perturbation of NOx and/or non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC). The modeling system's air quality related outputs were evaluated using AirBase, and EMEP surface measurements showed reasonable reproduction of the monthly variation for ozone (O3), but the annual cycle of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) is more biased. In terms of hourly correlations, values achieved for ozone and NO2 are 0.5-0.8 and 0.4-0.6, but SO2 is poorly or not correlated at all with measurements (r around 0.2-0.5). The modeled fine particulates (PM2.5) are usually underestimated, especially in winter, mainly due to underestimation of nitrates and carbonaceous aerosols. European air quality measures were chosen as metrics describing the cities emission impact on regional air pollution. Due to urban emissions, significant ozone titration occurs over cities while over rural areas remote from cities, ozone production is modeled, mainly in terms of number of exceedances and accumulated exceedances over the threshold of 40 ppbv. Urban NOx, SO2 and PM2.5 emissions also significantly contribute to concentrations in the cities themselves (up to 50-70 % for NOx and SO2, and up to 60 % for PM2.5), but the contribution is large over rural areas as well (10-20 %). Although air pollution over cities is largely determined by the local urban emissions, considerable (often a few tens of %) fraction of the concentration is attributable to

  12. Global change impact on water resources at the regional scale - a reflection on participatory modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barthel, Roland; Büttner, Hannah; Nickel, Darla; Seidl, Roman

    2015-04-01

    discussion we therefore focus on the following three questions: • Can a stakeholder dialogue be successfully used to support the development of new, complex modelling systems, in particular at the regional scale? • What is the right timing for stakeholder interaction in the case of unclear problem definition - i.e. global (climate) change impact on regions where climate is not (yet) a threat to water or land use related demands and activities? • To what degree can scientists be motivated to carry out participatory research at all? We conclude that the PM process in GD was only partly successful because the project set overambitious goals, including the application of fundamentally new approaches to interdisciplinary science, the use of new modelling technologies, the focus upon and evaluation of potential and therefore characteristically uncertain future problems, including stakeholder demands, and the development of a ready-to-use, user-friendly tool. Furthermore, GD also showed that an externally and professionally moderated stakeholder dialogue is an absolute necessity to achieve successful participation of stakeholders in model development. The modelers themselves neither had the time, the skills and the ambitions to do this. Furthermore, there is a lack of incentives for scientists, particularly natural scientists, to commit to PM activities. Given the fact that the outcomes of PM are supposed to be relevant for societal decision making, this issue needs further attention.

  13. Feeding impacts of ontogenetically migrating copepods on the spring phytoplankton bloom in the Oyashio region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kobari, T.; Inoue, Y.; Nakamura, Y.; Okamura, H.; Ota, T.; Nishibe, Y.; Ichinomiya, M.

    2010-09-01

    We investigated the feeding habits and grazing rates of the ontogenetically migrating copepods in the Oyashio region to evaluate their grazing impacts on the food web during the spring phytoplankton bloom. The bloom was in progress from early to late April, although chlorophyll a concentrations fluctuated considerably with the frequent exchange of different water masses. Biomass of the copepod community reached a maximum in mid-April when late copepodites of Neocalanus cristatus, Neocalanus flemingeri and Eucalanus bungii contributed to the biomass increase. Gut pigment contents of the predominant copepods were much higher during the bloom compared with the levels in March (pre-bloom). The temporal fluctuations were not correlated with those of mean chlorophyll a concentrations in the 0-50 m layer. Feeding experiments indicated that major food items for the copepods were centric diatoms and flagellates. During the period of lower ambient chlorophyll, the copepods changed their heterotrophic prey from naked ciliates to tintinnids. Apparent clearance rates were positive for naked ciliates and negative for heterotrophic nanoplankton, Cryptophyceae and bacteria when chlorophyll was high, suggesting trophic cascade effects from copepod feeding even during the phytoplankton bloom. The carbon demands of the copepod community were estimated to be 156 mgC m -2 day -1 in early March to 797 mgC m -2 day -1 in mid-April. The grazing rates on phytoplankton reached 480 mgC m -2 day -1, equivalent to as much as 28% of primary production. Non-phytoplankton prey supported 40 to 71% of the copepod carbon requirement. These results suggest that the copepod community does not graze the phytoplankton bloom down, but it does have significant impacts on microbial food webs.

  14. Differential Impacts of Climate Change on Crops and Agricultural Regions in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, A. N.

    2015-12-01

    As India's farmers and policymakers consider potential adaptation strategies to climate change, some questions loom large: - Which climate variables best explain the variability of crop yields? - How does the vulnerability of crop yields to climate vary regionally? - How are these risks likely to change in the future? While process-based crop modelling has started to answer many of these questions, we believe statistical approaches can complement these in improving our understanding of climate vulnerabilities and appropriate responses. We use yield data collected over three decades for more than ten food crops grown in India along with a variety of statistical approaches to answer the above questions. The ability of climate variables to explain yield variation varies greatly by crop and season, which is expected. Equally important, the ability of models to predict crop yields as well as their coefficients varies greatly by district even for districts which are relatively close to each other and similar in their agricultural practices. We believe these results encourage caution and nuance when making projections about climate impacts on crop yields in the future. Most studies about climate impacts on crop yields focus on a handful of major food crops. By extending our analysis to all the crops with long-term district level data in India as well as two growing seasons we gain a more comprehensive picture. Our results indicate that there is a great deal of variability even at relatively small scales, and that this must be taken into account if projections are to be made useful to policymakers.

  15. Investigating the impact of spaceborne radar blind zone on surface snowfall statistics in polar regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maahn, Maximilian; Burgard, Clara; Crewell, Susanne; Gorodetskaya, Irina; Kneifel, Stefan; Lhermitte, Stef; Van Tricht, Kristof; van Lipzig, Nicole

    2016-04-01

    Currently, global statistics of snowfall are only available from the CloudSat satellite launched in 2006. However, measurements of CloudSat can be only obtained at an altitude of at least 1200 m above ground, because measurements below are contaminated by ground clutter. As a consequence, global estimates of snowfall at the surface have to be estimated from observations at 1200 m above ground. In the presented study, it is investigated how this blind zone impacts snowfall statistics obtained from CloudSat observations in polar regions. For this, 12-months datasets containing observations of a vertically pointing 24 GHz Micro Rain Radar (MRR) are analyzed for three sites: the Belgian Princess Elisabeth station in East-Antarctica, and for Ny-Ålesund as well as Longyearbyen in Svalbard, Norway. Statistical comparison of CloudSat and MRR observations shows that MRRs are suited to study snowfall when reflectivity exceeds -5 dBz. To study the vertical variability of snowfall, MRR radar reflectivity profiles are analyzed with respect to changes in frequency distribution, the number of observed snow events and total precipitation. Results show that the blind zone leads to reflectivity being underestimated by up to 1 dB, the number of events being altered by ±5% and the precipitation amount being underestimated by 9 to 11 percentage points. In order to account for future satellite missions which feature a smaller blind-zone, also the impact of a reduced blind zone of 600 m is analyzed. Even though reducing the blind zone to 600 m leads to better representation of mean reflectivity, it does not improve the bias in event numbers and total precipitation amount.

  16. Regional & National Scale Assessment of the Impact of the US Livestock Footprint on Dryland Productive Capacity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kulawardhana, R. W.; Washington-Allen, R. A.; Mitchell, J. E.; Reeves, M. C.

    2009-12-01

    Recent reports from the Heinz Center and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) concluded that the amount and extent of desertification is unknown at national to global spatial scales. This is primarily due to lack of consistent monitoring and assessment systems at these spatial and temporal (> 15 year) scales necessary to separate the effects of anthropogenic practices from climate change. Thus, the purpose of this study was to assess the impact of the US livestock footprint (the forage required by herbivores), on Dryland productive capacity or above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP) at regional (Texas) and national extents. Dryland extent is defined as the aridity index (AI): the ratio of mean annual potential evapotranspiration to mean annual precipitation between 0.05 and 0.65. The Dryland grazable area (39 million ha in Texas and 257 million ha for US) was determined by converting 1992 and 2001 land cover classes to one land use category: rangelands. Rangelands were intersected with Drylands at Texas and US extents. The US Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service’s (USDA-NASS) county- and state-level livestock numbers were converted to forage required to derive the ecological footprint for goats at the county-level (259,325 tons) for Texas from 2000 to 2006 and for all grazing livestock (216 million tons) at the national-level for 2002. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NPP was converted to ANPP by subtracting the below-ground (roots) component. ANPP is synonymous with the forage available to herbivores (35 million tons on average from 2000 to 2006 for Texas and 149 million tons in 2002 for the US) and is generated for the same years and extents as the forage required. The percentage grazable area of Texas and the US impacted by livestock appropriation of NPP (LANPP = Forage available - Forage required) was 12% and 19 %, respectively.

  17. Assessing Sea Level Rise Impacts on the Surficial Aquifer in the Kennedy Space Center Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, H.; Wang, D.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Warnock, A. M.; Hall, C. R.

    2014-12-01

    Global sea level rise in the past century due to climate change has been seen at an average rate of approximately 1.7-2.2 mm per year, with an increasing rate over the next century. The increasing SLR rate poses a severe threat to the low-lying land surface and the shallow groundwater system in the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, resulting in saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding. A three-dimensional groundwater flow and salinity transport model is implemented to investigate and evaluate the extent of floods due to rising water table as well as saltwater intrusion. The SEAWAT model is chosen to solve the variable-density groundwater flow and salinity transport governing equations and simulate the regional-scale spatial and temporal evolution of groundwater level and chloride concentration. The horizontal resolution of the model is 50 m, and the vertical domain includes both the Surficial Aquifer and the Floridan Aquifer. The numerical model is calibrated based on the observed hydraulic head and chloride concentration. The potential impacts of sea level rise on saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding are assessed under various sea level rise scenarios. Based on the simulation results, the potential landward movement of saltwater and freshwater fringe is projected. The existing water supply wells are examined overlaid with the projected salinity distribution map. The projected Surficial Aquifer water tables are overlaid with data of high resolution land surface elevation, land use and land cover, and infrastructure to assess the potential impacts of sea level rise. This study provides useful tools for decision making on ecosystem management, water supply planning, and facility management.

  18. Tsunami Impact from a 1755-like event in the Aveiro Region, Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lemos, Catarina R.; Omira, Rachid; Pinheiro, Luis M.; Baptista, Maria A.; Quaresma, Luis S.; Garrido, Carla

    2014-05-01

    In this study, we present 5m-resolution tsunami flooding maps for the Aveiro region, W. Central Portugal. Aveiro is known to have been impacted by the 1st November 1755 earthquake and tsunami. At that time this portion of the coast had almost no constructions nor population but eversince geomorphological changes took place, and there has been a very large population increase living in constructions extremely close to the shore. As such it is important to model and evaluate the potential impact that a similar event to the 1755 earthquake would have in this area at present. Tsunami flooding maps were computed using a digital elevation model produced from the present-day bathymetric and topographic data including bathymetric surveys, LiDAR and photogrammetric data. Tsunami scenarios were generated considering different solutions for the 1755 earthquake seismic source, in faults constrained by multibeam and multichannel seismic data. The modeling of the tsunami propagation was performed with a validated non-linear shallow water model. To compute inundation, we considered four levels of nested grids with resolutions ranging from 320m to 5m. The tsunami-associated flood is discussed in terms of flow depth, run-up height and maximum inundation area. The Ria de Aveiro is characterized by both flattened relief and significant tidal amplitude range, which can contribute to an important variation in flooding due to tsunami-tide interaction. Therefore, the effect of the tide variation on the extent of tsunami inundation is also discussed. Results are compared with the historical descriptions of the consequences in Aveiro. An event similar to the one from 1755 would cause tsunami run-up heights above one meter within the Ria de Aveiro. The Aveiro oceanic coast would also be strongly affected. The results obtained can be used to identify the potential tsunami inundation areas in Aveiro, which is important for the Portuguese tsunami emergency management system. Keywords

  19. Cross‐scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

    SciTech Connect

    Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, Valentina; Gosling, Simon N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Florke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.; Yang, T.; Mueller, C.; Leng, Guoyong; Tang, Qiuhong; Portmann, F. T.; Hagemann, S.; Gerten , Dieter; Wada, Yoshihide; Masaki, Y.; Alemayehu, T.; Satoh, Yusuke; Samaniego, L.

    2017-01-01

    Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity of impact models designed for either scale to climate variability and change is comparable. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a much better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases with distinct differences in others, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability, but whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models validated against observed discharge should be used.

  20. Environmental impacts of shipping in 2030 with a particular focus on the Arctic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dalsøren, S. B.; Samset, B. H.; Myhre, G.; Corbett, J. J.; Minjares, R.; Lack, D.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.

    2012-10-01

    We quantify the concentrations change of atmospheric pollutants and Radiative Forcing (RF) of short-lived components due to shipping emissions of NOx, SOx, CO, NMVOCs, BC and OC. A set of models is used to evaluate the period 2004-2030. This time period reflects expected increasing traffic in the Arctic region. Two datasets for ship emissions are used that may characterize the potential impact from shipping and the degree to which shipping controls may mitigate impacts: A high (HIGH) scenario and a low scenario with Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) of black carbon in the Arctic. In MFR, BC emissions in the Arctic are reduced with 70% representing a combination technology performance and/or reasonable advances in single-technology performance. Both scenarios result in moderate to substantial increases in concentrations of pollutants both globally and in the Arctic. Exceptions are black carbon in the MFR scenario, and sulfur species and organic carbon in both scenarios due to the future phase-in of current regulation that reduces fuel sulfur content. In the season with potential transit traffic through the Arctic in 2030 significant increases occur for all pollutants in large parts of the Arctic. Net global RFs from 2004-2030 of 53 mW m-2 (HIGH) and 73 mW m-2 (MFR) are similar to those found for preindustrial to present net global aircraft RF. The found warming contrasts the cooling from historical ship emissions. The reason for this difference and the higher global forcing for the MFR scenario is mainly the reduced future fuel sulfur content resulting in less cooling from sulfate aerosols. Arctic regional forcing is largest in the HIGH scenario because other components become locally more important in polar latitudes. In the HIGH scenario ozone dominates the RF during Arctic summer and the transit season. RF due to BC in air, and snow and ice becomes of significance in Arctic spring. For the HIGH scenario the net Arctic RF during spring is 5 times higher than in

  1. Environmental impacts of shipping in 2030 with a particular focus on the Arctic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dalsøren, S. B.; Samset, B. H.; Myhre, G.; Corbett, J. J.; Minjares, R.; Lack, D.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.

    2013-02-01

    We quantify the concentrations changes and Radiative Forcing (RF) of short-lived atmospheric pollutants due to shipping emissions of NOx, SOx, CO, NMVOCs, BC and OC. We use high resolution ship emission inventories for the Arctic that are more suitable for regional scale evaluation than those used in former studies. A chemical transport model and a RF model are used to evaluate the time period 2004-2030, when we expect increasing traffic in the Arctic region. Two datasets for ship emissions are used that characterize the potential impact from shipping and the degree to which shipping controls may mitigate impacts: a high (HIGH) scenario and a low scenario with Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) of black carbon in the Arctic. In MFR, BC emissions in the Arctic are reduced with 70% representing a combination technology performance and/or reasonable advances in single-technology performance. Both scenarios result in moderate to substantial increases in concentrations of pollutants both globally and in the Arctic. Exceptions are black carbon in the MFR scenario, and sulfur species and organic carbon in both scenarios due to the future phase-in of current regulation that reduces fuel sulfur content. In the season with potential transit traffic through the Arctic in 2030 we find increased concentrations of all pollutants in large parts of the Arctic. Net global RFs from 2004-2030 of 53 mW m-2 (HIGH) and 73 mW m-2 (MFR) are similar to those found for preindustrial to present net global aircraft RF. The found warming contrasts with the cooling from historical ship emissions. The reason for this difference and the higher global forcing for the MFR scenario is mainly the reduced future fuel sulfur content resulting in less cooling from sulfate aerosols. The Arctic RF is largest in the HIGH scenario. In the HIGH scenario ozone dominates the RF during the transit season (August-October). RF due to BC in air, and snow and ice becomes significant during Arctic spring. For the HIGH

  2. Possible impacts of a descent into a Grand Solar Minimum on extratropical regional surface climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maycock, A. C.; Ineson, S.; Gray, L. J.; Scaife, A. A.; Lockwood, M. M.

    2012-12-01

    The Sun's output varies on a number of characteristic timescales, the most well-known of which is the approximately 11-year solar cycle. It has been shown that the Sun also exhibits cycles with a period of ~200 years, so-called Grand Solar Cycles. Reconstructions indicate that levels of solar activity have been relatively high for the past ~70 years, and it has been suggested that the Sun might be expected to evolve towards a state of lower output; however, the timescale and extent of such a 'Grand Solar Minimum' event is highly uncertain. This study presents sensitivity experiments with a state-of-the-art climate model to investigate the impact of reaching very low levels of solar output, similar to those thought to have occurred during the Maunder Minimum, by the middle of the 21st century. We investigate the effect of uncertainties in spectral solar irradiance by using both the semi-empirical model of Lean et al., which gives a relatively modest change in the ultraviolet (UV) spectral region and is commonly used to represent solar variability in climate models, as well as the recent measurements from the SORCE satellite, which suggest a much larger change in the UV across the solar cycle for the period 2004-07. Under the assumption of there being a large change in the UV derived from a linear extrapolation of the SORCE data, it is shown that a period of very low solar activity would be associated with a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation index. This signature in the large-scale circulation is associated with changes in regional surface climate, including cooler temperatures across the UK and western Europe. In the experiment which assumes a smaller change in UV irradiance, the extratropical circulation responses in the stratosphere and troposphere are found to be of a consistent sign but smaller in magnitude. This highlights the importance of one possible mechanism for solar-climate interactions, namely the impact of tropical upper stratospheric heating on

  3. Evaluation of the Impact of AlRS Radiance and Profile Data Assimilation in Partly Cloudy Regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zavodsky, Bradely; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Jedlovec, Gary

    2013-01-01

    Parallel experiments using AIRS L1B and L2 retrieved profiles were run for 29 case study days for early Winter 2011. Forecasts over and downstream regions of low, opaque cloudy regions yield improved T and Z anomaly correlations when non-thinned set of profiles is assimilated instead of radiances. Initial results indicate that GSI does a good job on the whole of determining cloud-free radiances there are some areas coincident with areas of larger profile impact that are misrepresented (compared to MODIS) that may result in reduced analysis impact.

  4. An impact assessment of the Child Growth, Development and Care Program in the Caribbean Region of Colombia.

    PubMed

    Padilla, Alcides de J; Trujillo, Juan C

    2015-10-01

    This article aims to assess the impact of the Child Growth, Development and Care Program in the Caribbean region of Colombia by analyzing variables such as maternal childcare practices and indicators of the nutritional status and health of children under the age of five. To this end, the authors used the quasi-experimental technique Propensity Score Matching. Positive impacts included a decrease in acute diarrheal disease, and an increase in immunization and seeking treatment for acute respiratory infection or fever symptoms. However, the program had little influence on chronic and acute malnutrition in the region.

  5. Study of Regional Volcanic Impact on the Middle East and North Africa using high-resolution global and regional models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Osipov, Sergey; Dogar, Mohammad; Stenchikov, Georgiy

    2016-04-01

    High-latitude winter warming after strong equatorial volcanic eruptions caused by circulation changes associated with the anomalously positive phase of Arctic Oscillation is a subject of active research during recent decade. But severe winter cooling in the Middle East observed after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption of 1991, although recognized, was not thoroughly investigated. These severe regional climate perturbations in the Middle East cannot be explained by solely radiative volcanic cooling, which suggests that a contribution of forced circulation changes could be important and significant. To better understand the mechanisms of the Middle East climate response and evaluate the contributions of dynamic and radiative effects we conducted a comparative study using Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory global High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) with the effectively "regional-model-resolution" of 25-km and the regional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model focusing on the eruption of Mount Pinatubo on June 15, 1991 followed by a pronounced positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. The WRF model has been configured over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The WRF code has been modified to interactively account for the radiative effect of volcanic aerosols. Both HiRAM and WRF capture the main features of the MENA climate response and show that in winter the dynamic effects in the Middle East prevail the direct radiative cooling from volcanic aerosols.

  6. Unplanned roads impacts assessment in Phewa Lake watershed, Western region, Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leibundgut, Geoffroy; Sudmeier-Rieux, Karen; Devkota, Sanjaya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Penna, Ivanna; Adhikari, Anu; Khanal, Rajendra

    2015-04-01

    This work describes current research being conducted in the Phewa Lake watershed, near Pokhara in Nepal's Siwaliks/Middle hills, a moist sub-tropical zone with the highest amount of annual rainfall in Nepal (4,500 - 5,000 mm). The watershed lithology is mainly siltstone, sandstones and intensively weathered rocks, highly prone to erosion and shallow landslides (Agrawala et al., 2003). The main purpose of this study is to focus on the impact of unplanned earthen road construction in the Phewa Lake watershed as part of land use changes over 30 years in one of Nepal's most touristic regions. Over the past three decades, the road network has expanded exponentially and a majority of rural earthen roads are often funded by communities themselves, with some government subsidies. They are usually constructed using a local bulldozer contractor with no technical or geological expertise increasing erosion processes, slope instabilities risk and impacts to settlements, forests, water sources, agriculture lands, and infrastructure. Moreover, these human-induced phenomena are being compounded by increasingly intense monsoon rains, likely due to climate change (Petley, 2010). Research methods were interdisciplinary and based on a combination of remote sensing, field observations and discussions with community members. The study compared 30 year-old aerial photos with current high resolution satellite images to correlate changes in land use with erosion and slope instabilities. Secondly, most of the watershed's roads were surveyed in order to inventory and quantify slope instabilities and soil loss events. Using a failure-characteristics grid, their main features were measured (location, size, type and extension of damage areas, etc.) and a GIS data base was created. We then estimated economic impacts of these events in terms of agriculture lands losses and road maintenance, based on field observations and discussions with affected people. Field work investigations have shown that

  7. Cumulative drought and land-use impacts on perennial vegetation across a North American dryland region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Munson, Seth M.; Long, A. Lexine; Wallace, Cynthia; Webb, Robert H.

    2016-01-01

    Question The decline and loss of perennial vegetation in dryland ecosystems due to global change pressures can alter ecosystem properties and initiate land degradation processes. We tracked changes of perennial vegetation using remote sensing to address the question of how prolonged drought and land-use intensification have affected perennial vegetation cover across a desert region in the early 21st century? Location Mojave Desert, southeastern California, southern Nevada, southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, USA. Methods We coupled the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Enhanced Vegetation Index (MODIS-EVI) with ground-based measurements of perennial vegetation cover taken in about 2000 and about 2010. Using the difference between these years, we determined perennial vegetation changes in the early 21st century and related these shifts to climate, soil and landscape properties, and patterns of land use. Results We found a good fit between MODIS-EVI and perennial vegetation cover (2000: R2 = 0.83 and 2010: R2 = 0.74). The southwestern, far southeastern and central Mojave Desert had large declines in perennial vegetation cover in the early 21st century, while the northeastern and southeastern portions of the desert had increases. These changes were explained by 10-yr precipitation anomalies, particularly in the cool season and during extreme dry or wet years. Areas heavily impacted by visitor use or wildfire lost perennial vegetation cover, and vegetation in protected areas increased to a greater degree than in unprotected areas. Conclusions We find that we can extrapolate previously documented declines of perennial plant cover to an entire desert, and demonstrate that prolonged water shortages coupled with land-use intensification create identifiable patterns of vegetation change in dryland regions.

  8. Impact of Halogen Species in the Troposphere on the Ozone concentration on the Regional Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kraut, I.; Vogel, H.; Kottmeier, Ch.; Vogel, B.

    2012-04-01

    In order to quantify the interaction of halogen species with ozone a chemical mechanism was developed. This halogen mechanism handles the most important reactions dealing with halogen species in the gas phase. It is classified into three levels of complexity. The first one includes the basic reaction pathways of reactive halogen species including two catalytic ozone destruction cycles. The second one adds reaction paths concerning halogen species with nitrogen oxides. The last one adds the hydrolysis of halogen nitrates. This most complete mechanism was linked to the gas phase mechanism RADMKA, which already describes the ozone chemistry in the troposphere but so far did not consider halogen species. Box model runs were used to explore the sensitivity of the ozone concentration to the individual mechanisms and to quantify this impact. A difference of about 5 % in the ozone concentration due to the halogen reactions was found, the hydrolysis reactions contribute the biggest part to this difference. The halogen mechanism was also included to the model system COSMO-ART (Vogel et al., 2009). The operational weather forecast model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst was extended to treat the chemistry and physics of gases and aerosols. Parameterisations to describe directly emitted components like soot, mineral dust, sea salt and biological material are also included. A spatial and temporal constant source of molecular iodine (I2) was added along the coastlines of Europe. This iodine emission from macroalgal species was taken from the results of the Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (RHaMBLe), measured in September 2006 in the coastal regions around Roscoff, France (Leigh et al., 2010). Differences in the ozone concentration occur not only in coastal regions but also over the open sea and over land due to transport processes. Results of sensitivity studies with respect to the emissions and the heterogeneous reactions will be presented.

  9. Assimilation of SCIAMACHY total column CO observations: Global and regional analysis of data impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tangborn, Andrew; Stajner, Ivanka; Buchwitz, Michael; Khlystova, Iryna; Pawson, Steven; Burrows, John; Hudman, Rynda; Nedelec, Philippe

    2009-04-01

    Carbon monoxide (CO) total column observations from the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY) on board Envisat-1 are assimilated into the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office constituent assimilation system for the period 1 April to 20 December 2004. The impact of the assimilation on CO distribution is evaluated using independent surface flask observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/ESRL global cooperative air sampling network and Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapor by Airbus In-Service Aircraft (MOZAIC) in situ CO profiles. Assimilation of SCIAMACHY data improves agreement of CO assimilation with both of these data sets on both global and regional scales compared to the free-running model. Regional comparisons with MOZAIC profiles made in western Europe, the northeastern United States, and the Arabian Peninsula show improvements at all three locations in the free troposphere and into the boundary layer over Arabia and the northeastern United States. Comparisons with NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory data improve at about two thirds of the surface observation sites. The systematic model errors related to the uncertainty of CO surface sources and the chemistry of CO losses are investigated through experiments with increased surface CO emissions over the Arabian Peninsula and/or globally reduced hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations. Both model changes decrease mean CO errors at all altitudes in comparison to MOZAIC data over Dubai and Abu Dhabi. In contrast, errors in the assimilated CO are reduced by the increased emissions for pressures ≥800 hPa and by the reduced OH for pressures ≤600 hPa. Our analysis suggests that CO emissions over Dubai in 2004 are more than double those in the 1998 emissions inventory.

  10. Regional economic impacts of current and proposed management alternatives for Don Edwards National Wildlife Refuge

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Richardson, Leslie; Huber, Chris; Koontz, Lynne

    2012-01-01

    The National Wildlife Refuge System Improvement Act of 1997 requires all units of the National Wildlife Refuge System to be managed under a Comprehensive Conservation Plan. The Comprehensive Conservation Plan must describe the desired future conditions of a Refuge and provide long-range guidance and management direction to achieve refuge purposes. The Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge, located at the south end of California's San Francisco Bay and one of seven refuges in the San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge Complex, is in the process of developing a range of management goals, objectives, and strategies for the Comprehensive Conservation Plan. The Comprehensive Conservation Plan must contain an analysis of expected effects associated with current and proposed Refuge management strategies. For Refuge Comprehensive Conservation Plan planning, a regional economic analysis provides a means of estimating how current management (No Action Alternative) and proposed management activities (alternatives) affect the local economy. This type of analysis provides two critical pieces of information: (1) it illustrates the Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge's contribution to the local community, and (2) it can help in determining whether economic effects are or are not a real concern in choosing among management alternatives. This report first presents a description of the local community and economy near the Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge. Next, the methods used to conduct a regional economic impact analysis are described. An analysis of the final Comprehensive Conservation Plan management strategies that could affect stakeholders, residents, and the local economy is then presented. The management activities of economic concern in this analysis are: * Spending in the local community by Refuge visitors; * Refuge personnel salary spending; and * Refuge purchases of goods and services within the local

  11. Regional variation in physician adoption of antipsychotics: Impact on US Medicare expenditures

    PubMed Central

    Donohue, Julie M.; Normand, Sharon-Lise T.; Horvitz-Lennon, Marcela; Men, Aiju; Berndt, Ernst R.; Huskamp, Haiden A.

    2016-01-01

    Background Regional variation in US Medicare prescription drug spending is driven by higher prescribing of costly brand-name drugs in some regions. This variation likely arises from differences in the speed of diffusion of newly-approved medications. Second-generation antipsychotics were widely adopted for treatment of severe mental illness and for several off-label uses. Rapid diffusion of new psychiatric drugs likely increases drug spending but its relationship to non-drug spending is unclear. The impact of antipsychotic diffusion on drug and medical spending is of great interest to public payers like Medicare, which finance a majority of mental health spending in the U.S. Aims We examine the association between physician adoption of new antipsychotics and antipsychotic spending and non-drug medical spending among disabled and elderly Medicare enrollees. Methods We linked physician-level data on antipsychotic prescribing from an all-payer dataset (IMS Health's Xponent™) to patient-level data from Medicare. Our physician sample included 16,932 U.S. psychiatrists and primary care providers with ≥10 antipsychotic prescriptions per year from 1997-2011. We constructed a measure of physician adoption of 3 antipsychotics introduced during this period (quetiapine, ziprasidone and aripiprazole) by estimating a shared frailty model of the time to first prescription for each drug. We then assigned physicians to one of 306 U.S. hospital referral regions (HRRs) and measured the average propensity to adopt per region. Using 2010 data for a random sample of 1.6 million Medicare beneficiaries, we identified 138,680 antipsychotic users. A generalized linear model with gamma distribution and log link was used to estimate the effect of region-level adoption propensity on beneficiary-level antipsychotic spending and non-drug medical spending adjusting for patient demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, health status, eligibility category, and whether the antipsychotic was

  12. Biogenic voc emissions development and its impacts on regional o3 in PRD, china

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Xuemei; Shuping, Situ; Guenther, Alex; Chen, Fei; Wu, Zhiyong

    2010-05-01

    terpenoids may control the air quality especially the ozone formation in those areas.WRF-Chem-MEGAN model will be used to investigate the impacts of BVOC on regional ozone concentration in PRD.

  13. Impact of regional afforestation on climatic conditions in metropolitan areas: case study of Copenhagen

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stysiak, Aleksander Andrzej; Bergen Jensen, Marina; Mahura, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    Like most other places, European metropolitan areas will face a range of climate-related challenges over the next decades that may influence the nature of urban life across the continent. Under future urbanization and climate change scenarios the well-being and comfort of the urban population might become progressively compromised. In urban areas, the effects of the warming climate will be accelerated by combination of Urban Heat Island effect (UHI) and extreme heat waves. The land cover composition directly influences atmospheric variability, and can either escalate or downscale the projected changes. Vegetation, forest ecosystems in particular, are anticipated to play an important role in modulating local and regional climatic conditions, and to be vital factor in the process of adapting cities to warming climate. This study investigates the impact of forest and land-cover change on formation and development of temperature regimes in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Area (CPH-MA). Potential to modify the UHI effect in CPH-MA is estimated. Using 2009 meteorological data, and up-to-date 2012 high resolution land-cover data we employed the online integrated meteorology-chemistry/aerosols Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model) modeling system to simulate air temperature (at 2 meter height) fields for a selected period in July 2009. Employing research tools (such as METGRAF meteorological software and Geographical Information Systems) we then estimated the influence of different afforestation and urbanization scenarios with new forests being located after the Danish national afforestation plan, after proximity to the city center, after dominating wind characteristics, and urbanization taking place as densification of the existing conurbation. This study showed the difference in temperature up to 3.25°C, and the decrease in the spatial extent of temperature fields up to 68%, depending on the selected scenario. Performed simulations demonstrated

  14. Impacts of the Future Changes in Extreme Events on the Regional Crop Yield in Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, Nazan; Turp, M. Tufan; Ozturk, Tugba; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2016-04-01

    The changes in extreme events caused by climate change have the greatest impact on agricultural sector specifically crop yield. Therefore, it requires a clear understanding of how extreme events affect the crop yield and how it causes high economic losses. In this research, we cover the relationship between extreme events and the crop yield in Turkey for the period of 2020 - 2045 with respect to 1980 - 2005. We focus on the role of those extreme event causing natural disasters on the regional crop yield. This research comprises 2 parts. In the first part, the projection is performed according to the business as usual scenario of IPCC, RCP8.5, via the RegCM4.4 in order to obtain extreme event indices required for the crop assessment. In the second part, the crop yield and the extreme event indices are combined by applying the econometric analysis in order to see the relationship between natural disasters and crop yield. The risks for crop yield caused by the extreme events are estimated and interpreted. This study aims to assess the effect of frequency of expected extreme events on the crop yield at the cropland of Turkey. This research has been supported by Boǧaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 10421.

  15. Assessing the Impacts of Climate, Groundwater and Land Use on Regional Geomorphology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barkwith, A.; Hurst, M. D.; Ellis, M. A.; Coulthard, T. J.

    2014-12-01

    The CLiDE (CAESAR-Lisflood-DESC) platform integrates a variety of modelling components, in order to represent coupled environmental processes and assess their co-evolution over daily to centennial time-scales. A distributed surface-subsurface water partitioning component lies conceptually at the platform centre; providing the key linkages between the atmospheric, sediment transport and vegetation components. Fluvial sediment transport is simulated using the CAESAR model, which has previously been used to investigate a variety of sediment transport, erosional and depositional processes at centennial to millennial scales. Driving CAESAR with a higher resolution, distributed hydrology allows CLiDE to effectively capture geomorphological features that operate at sub-centennial timescales. Non-fluvial sediment transport at the mesoscale is handled by a debris flow component, which drives sediment transport through exchanges of energy and is triggered through modification of local gradient and hydrology. The coupled nature of the platform allows a variety of geomorphological assessments to be undertaken. We present a variety of regional scale, modelling case studies, which assess the impacts of climate, groundwater and land use on geomorphology. We investigate the non-linear influence of these drivers on the spatial and temporal evolution of river basins and find that antecedent conditions can have a major influence on future erosion events.

  16. Modeling study of the impacts of inertial gravity wave forcing in middle atmosphere polar region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, B.; Liu, H.; Chu, X.

    2012-12-01

    The 'cold pole' problem refers to the cold bias of polar stratosphere temperature in the Southern Hemisphere in most general circulation models (GCMs) and chemistry climate models (CCMs) during the winter and spring. Accompanying the 'cold pole' is the excessively strong jet in the stratosphere and late vortex breaking. It is a long-standing problem in most models, implying the lack of wave forcing in the southern stratosphere. In current study we investigate the feasibility of using parameterized inertial gravity wave forcing to reduce the cold bias. The NCAR Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM 4.0) is used for this study. A new scheme that parameterizes inertial gravity waves is included in the WACCM. Although the inertial gravity waves are likely to break in the stratosphere and impact the middle atmosphere circulation, they are not well resolved by the model nor properly parameterized. Using the new gravity wave scheme, the simulated wintertime temperature is ~20 K warmer in the southern polar region while the simulated wintertime zonal wind jet is about 10 to 30 m/s slower than the originals. Also, the polar vortex in the Southern Hemisphere breaks earlier and the wind reversal level during spring is lower. All these changes make the WACCM simulations closer to ERA-40, suggesting that additional gravity waves are able to reduce the 'cold pole' bias.

  17. Shoreline impacts in the Gulf of Alaska region following the Exxon Valdez oil spill

    SciTech Connect

    Gilfillan, E.S.; Page, D.S.; Suchanek, T.H.; Boehm, P.D.; Harner, E.J.; Sloan, N.A.

    1995-12-31

    Forty-eight sites in the Gulf of Alaska region (GOA-Kodiak Island, Kenai Peninsula, and Alaska Peninsula) were sampled in July/August 1989 to assess the impact of the March 24, 1989, Exxon Valdez oil spill on shoreline chemistry and biological communities hundreds of miles from the spill origin. In a 1990 companion study, 5 of the Kensai sites and 13 of the Kodiak and Alaska Peninsula sites were sampled 16 months after the spill. Oiling levels at each site were estimated visually and/or quantified by chemical analysis. The chemical analyses were performed on sediment and/or rock wipe samples collected with the biological samples. Additional sediment samples were collected for laboratory amphipod toxicity tests. Mussels were also collected and analyzed for hydrocarbon content to assess hydrocarbon bioavailability. Biological investigations at these GOA sites focused on intertidal infauna, epifauna, and macroalgae by means of a variety of common ecological techniques. For rock sites the percentage of hard substratum covered by biota was quantified. At each site, up to 5 biological samples (scrapes of rock surfaces or sediment cores) were collected intertidally along each of 3 transects, spanning tide levels from the high intertidal to mean-lowest-low-water (zero tidal datum). Organisms (down to 1.0 mm in size) from these samples were sorted and identified. Community parameters including organism abundance, species richness, and Shannon diversity were calculated for each sample. 43 refs., 13 figs., 3 tabs.

  18. e-Mental health in South Australia: impact of age, gender and region of residence.

    PubMed

    Keane, Miriam C; Roeger, Leigh S; Allison, Stephen; Reed, Richard L

    2013-01-01

    Respondents to the 2008 South Australian Health Omnibus survey (n=2996) indicated whether, in the previous 12 months, they had searched for information on the Internet relating to emotional issues such as depression, anxiety or relationship problems. Logistic regression was used to examine the penetration of e-mental health in rural and metropolitan areas (region of residence), and determine if other demographic variables (age group, gender) also impacted on the likelihood of an individual reporting that they had used the Internet to obtain such information. Overall, 9% of respondents reported that they had used the Internet for this purpose. The multivariate model was significant, F(11, 2985)=4.82, P<0.0001, with middle-aged rural females most likely to report doing so (18.1%), whereas older rural males were least likely to report doing so (2.2.%). These findings have important implications for the design of e-mental health promotional programs that provide information and interventions to improve mental health.

  19. Hydrologic variability in dryland regions: impacts on ecosystem dynamics and food security

    PubMed Central

    D'Odorico, Paolo; Bhattachan, Abinash

    2012-01-01

    Research on ecosystem and societal response to global environmental change typically considers the effects of shifts in mean climate conditions. There is, however, some evidence of ongoing changes also in the variance of hydrologic and climate fluctuations. A relatively high interannual variability is a distinctive feature of the hydrologic regime of dryland regions, particularly at the desert margins. Hydrologic variability has an important impact on ecosystem dynamics, food security and societal reliance on ecosystem services in water-limited environments. Here, we investigate some of the current patterns of hydrologic variability in drylands around the world and review the major effects of hydrologic fluctuations on ecosystem resilience, maintenance of biodiversity and food security. We show that random hydrologic fluctuations may enhance the resilience of dryland ecosystems by obliterating bistable deterministic behaviours and threshold-like responses to external drivers. Moreover, by increasing biodiversity and the associated ecosystem redundancy, hydrologic variability can indirectly enhance post-disturbance recovery, i.e. ecosystem resilience. PMID:23045712

  20. Impacts of climate change on erosion in humid and dry Mediterranean regions of Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nunes, João Pedro; Marisa Santos, Juliana; Sampaio, Elsa; Corte-Real, João; Moreira, Madalena; Jacinto, Rita; Bernard-Jannin, Léonard

    2014-05-01

    Soils in the Mediterranean regions of Europe are often vulnerable to soil erosion, due to a combination of annual plant cover cycles, centuries of human use, the concentration of rainstorms in a short period of the year, and other factors. Climate change could bring about a warmer and drier climate, limiting vegetation growth while bringing heavier storms during winter. This could eventually lead to higher risks of soil losses and the consequential problems of land degradation and desertification. Project ERLAND, which began in 2009, is assessing these risks for two Mediterranean research catchments in Portugal, with four main goals: (i) collect data to understand hydrological and erosion processes in representative catchments; (ii) use this data to parameterize the SWAT eco-hydrological and erosion model as accurately as possible; (iii) use future socio-economic scenarios to estimate both impacts on climate change and on future land-use practices; and (iv) apply the SWAT model for these scenarios and estimate the consequences for soil erosion rates. The Macieira catchment is in a wet Mediterranean climate region, with high rainfall (c. 1300 mm.y-1) but a distinct summer dry season; erosion processes are associated with periods of sparse cover in autumn in fields with a pasture-corn rotation, but also with forest plantations after clear-cutting and especially after forest fires. The occurrence of a forest fire inside the catchment in 2011 allowed an analysis of the role played by this kind of disturbances on soil erosion. Climate change could bring less erosive rainfall events, but an increase in fire frequency, and therefore a potential shift of erosion from agriculture to forest land-uses. The Guadalupe catchment has a dry Mediterranean climate (rainfall of c. 550 mm.y-1); erosion processes occur mostly in permanent crops (olive trees) and winter cereal fields. Climate change could bring a concentration of rainfall in winter, as well as an increase in the area

  1. The direct impact of landslides on household income in tropical regions: A case study from the Rwenzori Mountains in Uganda.

    PubMed

    Mertens, K; Jacobs, L; Maes, J; Kabaseke, C; Maertens, M; Poesen, J; Kervyn, M; Vranken, L

    2016-04-15

    Landslides affect millions of people worldwide, but theoretical and empirical studies on the impact of landslides remain scarce, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study proposes and applies a method to estimate the direct impact of landslides on household income and to investigate the presence of specific risk sharing and mitigation strategies towards landslides in a tropical and rural environment. An original cross-sectional household survey is used in combination with geographical data to acquire detailed information on livelihoods and on hazards in the Rwenzori mountains, Uganda. Ordinary least square regressions and probit estimations with village fixed effects are used to estimate the impact of landslides and the presence of mitigation strategies. Geographical information at household level allows to disentangle the direct impact from the indirect effects of landslides. We show that the income of affected households is substantially reduced during the first years after a landslide has occurred. We find that members of recently affected households participate more in wage-employment or in self-employed activities, presumably to address income losses following a landslide. Yet, we see that these jobs do not provide sufficient revenue to compensate for the loss of income from agriculture. Given that landslides cause localized shocks, finding a significant direct impact in our study indicates that no adequate risk sharing mechanisms are in place in the Rwenzori sub-region. These insights are used to derive policy recommendations for alleviating the impact of landslides in the region. By quantifying the direct impact of landslides on household income in an agricultural context in Africa this study draws the attention towards a problem that has been broadly underestimated so far and provides a sound scientific base for disaster risk reduction in the region. Both the methodology and the findings of this research are applicable to other tropical regions with high

  2. Grazing impact of the copepod community in the Oyashio region of the western subarctic Pacific Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Kazutaka; Kuwata, Akira; Saito, Hiroaki; Ide, Keiichiro

    2008-09-01

    The role of copepod grazing on the ecosystem dynamics in the Oyashio region, western subarctic Pacific was investigated during six cruises from June 2001 to June 2002. In situ grazing rates of the copepod community (CGR) were measured by the gut fluorescence method in respect to developmental stages of dominant species. In terms of biomass, more than 80% of the copepod community was dominated by six large calanoid species ( Neocalanus cristatus, Neocalanus flemingeri, Neocalanus plumchrus, Eucalanus bungii, Metridia pacifica and Metridia okhotensis) throughout the year. Resulting from the observed pattern of the interzonal migrating copepods, the CGR in the Oyashio region was divided into three phases, i.e. spring (bloom), summer (post-bloom) and autumn-winter phase. During the spring bloom, late copepodites of the interzonal migrating species, N. cristatus, N. flemingeri and E. bungii appeared in the surface layer (0-50 m) to consume the production of the bloom, resulting in a high grazing rate of the copepod community (7.9 mg Chl m -2 d -1), though its impact on phytoplankton community was low due to the high primary productivity. During the post-bloom period, although the copepod community which was dominated by N. cristatus, N. plumchrus, M. pacifica and newly recruited E. bungii still maintained a high biomass, the CGR was generally lower (1.8-2.6 mg Chl m -2 d -1 for June and August 2001), probably due to the lower availability of phytoplankton. Nevertheless, the highest CGR was also observed during this period (10.5 mg Chl m -2 d -1 in June 2002). The high CGR on autotrophic carbon accounted for 69% of the primary production, suggesting that the copepod community in the Oyashio region potentially terminates the phytoplankton bloom. Abundant occurrence of young E. bungii, which is a characteristic phenomenon in the Oyashio region, was largely responsible for the high grazing pressure in June 2002 suggesting that success of reproduction, growth, and survival

  3. Identify the impacts of climate on the regional transportation of haze pollution and inter-cities correspondence within the Yangtze River Delta Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Hang; Huang, Zhongwen; Zhang, Huiling; Tong, Lei

    2016-04-01

    Regional haze pollution has become an important environmental issue in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) area. Aerosol samples from Nanjing, Shanghai, Ningbo and Li'an were collected and analyzed for their chemical compositions and stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios. The routine air monitoring data reported from national atmospheric monitoring networks was also collected to identify the impacts of the subtropical monsoon. Regional PM2.5 pollution was confirmed in the YRD region by significant correlations and similar cyclical characteristics of PM2.5 among study cities. The analysis of backward trajectory reveals that northerly is the prevailing wind from October to March, while the prevailing wind direction is from southeast for the other time. The Granger causality test results indicate that strong causal correlations exist between the cities along the pathways of seasonal monsoons. Variance decomposition of the multiple time series of PM2.5 from study area also indicated the upwind area cities contribute significantly to that of downwind area cities, which suggested the regional transportation of aerosol is governed by the prevailing air mass movement, i.e. the seasonal monsoons. Moreover, the variations of carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios of particle samples from the cities downwind direction demonstrate significant lag behind that of upwind direction city. Eventually, these statistical methodologies can be applied to forecast the daily PM2.5 concentrations in each city on a regional scale, and as well serve as an important reference for the regional air pollutant control during the policy making process.

  4. Pulling Marbles from a Bag: Deducing the Regional Impact History of the SPA Basin from Impact-Melt Rocks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cohen, Barbara A.; Coker, Robert F.

    2010-01-01

    The South Pole Aitken (SPA) basin is the stratigraphically oldest identifiable lunar basin and is therefore one of the most important targets for absolute age-dating to help understand whether ancient lunar bombardment history smoothly declined or was punctuated by a cataclysm. A feasible near-term approach to this problem is to robotically collect a sample from near the center of the basin, where vertical and lateral mixing provided by post-basin impacts ensures that such a sample will be composed of small rock fragments from SPA itself, from local impact craters, and from faraway giant basins. The range of ages, intermediate spikes in the age distribution, and the oldest ages are all part of the definition of the absolute age and impact history recorded within the SPA basin.

  5. Land use impacts on lake water quality in Alytus region (Lithuania)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, Paulo; Laukonis, Rymvidas

    2016-04-01

    Land use has important impacts on soils, surface and ground water quality. Urban agricultural areas are an important source of pollutants, which can reach lakes through surface runoff and underground circulation. Human intervention in the landscape is one of the major causes pollution and land degradation, thus it is very important to understand the impacts of and use on environment and if they have some spatial pattern (Pereira et al., 2013, 2015; Brevik et al., 2016). The identification of the spatial pattern of lakes pollution is in Alytus area (Lithuania) is fundamental, since they provide an important range of ecosystem services to local communities, including food and recreational activities. Thus, the degradation of these environments can induce important economic losses. In this context, it is import to identify the areas with high pollutant accumulation and the environmental and human factors responsible for it. The objective of this work is to study identify the amount of some important nutrients resultant from human activities in lake water quality in Alytus region (Lithuania). Alytus region is located in southern part of Lithuania and has an approximate area of 40 km2. Inside this region we analyzed several water quality parameters of 55 lakes, including, pH, electrical conductivity (EC), suspended materials (SM), water clarity (WC) biochemical oxygen demand (BDO), total phosphorous (TP), total Nitrogen (TN), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), as other environmental variables as altitude, lake maximum deep (MD), lake area and land use according Corine land cover classification (CLC2006). Previous to data analysis, data normality and homogeneity of the variances, was assessed with the Shapiro-wilk and Leven's test, respectively. The majority of the data did not respect the Gaussian distribution and the heteroscedasticity, even after a logarithmic, and box-cox transformation. Thus, in this work we used the logarithmic transformed data to do a principal

  6. An Impact Analysis of Regional Industry--University Interactions: The Case of Industrial PhD Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gustavsson, Linda; Nuur, Cali; Söderlind, Johan

    2016-01-01

    The authors discuss Triple Helix collaborations in the context of regional competitiveness. Through an exploratory case study, they identify and analyse the impact of the establishment of industrial PhD schools for participating industry and universities. The study was conducted in Sweden in 2014 and focuses on three industry--university…

  7. An Impact Analysis of Regional Industry-University Interactions: The Case of Industrial PhD Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gustavsson, Linda; Nuur, Cali; Söderlind, Johan

    2016-01-01

    The authors discuss Triple Helix collaborations in the context of regional competitiveness. Through an exploratory case study, they identify and analyse the impact of the establishment of industrial PhD schools for participating industry and universities. The study was conducted in Sweden in 2014 and focuses on three industry-university…

  8. The Technological Impact of the E-Rate Program on a School District of the Texas Coastal Bend Region

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vazquez-Cruz, Juan Diego

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to examine the impact of the E-Rate program on students, teachers, administrators, and the technology environment of a public school district in the Texas Gulf Coast Region. The study was conducted through a mixed methods design, utilizing both quantitative and qualitative data collection; the research design was a…

  9. The Impact of English as a Global Language on Educational Policies and Practices in the Asia-Pacific Region

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nunan, David

    2003-01-01

    This article presents the results of an investigation into the place of English in the curriculum in several countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The study indicates that the emergence of English as a global language is having considerable impact on policies and practices in all countries surveyed. However, it also reveals significant problems,…

  10. Volcanoes and ENSO in millennium simulations: global impacts and regional reconstructions in East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Dan; Blender, Richard; Fraedrich, Klaus

    2013-02-01

    The impacts and cooperative effects of volcanic eruptions and ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) are analyzed in a millennium simulation for 800-2005 AD using the earth system model (ESM) ECHAM5/MPIOM/JSBACH subject to anthropogenic and natural forcings. The simulation comprises two ensembles, a first with weak (E1, five members) and a second with strong (E2, three members) variability total solar irradiance. In the analysis, the 21 most intense eruptions are selected in each ensemble member. Volcanoes with neutral ENSO states during two preceding winters cause a global cooling in the year after eruptions up to -2.5°C. The nonsignificant positive values in the tropical Pacific Ocean indicate an El Niño-like warming. In the winter after an eruption, warming is mainly found in the Arctic Ocean and the Bering Sea in E2 warming extends to Siberia and central Asia. The recovery times for the volcano-induced cooling (average for 31 eruptions) vary globally between 1 and 12 years. There is no significant increase of El Niño events after volcanic eruptions in both ensembles. The simulated temperature and the drought indices are compared with corresponding reconstructions in East Asia. Volcanoes cause a dramatic cooling in west China (-2°C) and a drought in East China during the year after the eruption. The reconstructions show similar cooling patterns with smaller magnitudes and confirm the dryness in East China. Without volcanoes, El Niño events reduce summer precipitation in the North, while South China becomes wetter; La Niña events cause opposite effects. El Niño events in the winters after eruptions compensate the cooling caused by volcanoes in most regions of China (consistent with reconstructions), while La Niña events intensify the cooling (up to -2.5°C). The simulated and reconstructed drought indices show tripole patterns which are altered by El Niño events. The simulated impact of the Tambora eruption in 1815, which caused the "year without summer

  11. Evaluation of the impacts of urban development on groundwater storage at the regional scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhaskar, A. S.; Welty, C.; Maxwell, R. M.; Miller, A. J.

    2013-12-01

    Urban development results in a myriad of changes to the natural environment; these changes can give rise to a range of effects on the groundwater system. We have used the integrated subsurface - surface - land surface hydrologic model ParFlow.CLM to evaluate and isolate the impacts of urban development on groundwater storage at the regional scale. We have applied the model to the 13,216 sq km Baltimore metropolitan area at a 500 m horizontal and 5 m vertical discretization, incorporating realistic estimates of anthropogenic fluxes (lawn watering, leakage from water supply pipes, infiltration into sewer pipes, withdrawals for water supply) as well as any available hydrogeologic data. We developed a base-case model, where all urban fluxes and features are incorporated, followed by model scenarios in which urban features were modified one-at-a time to evaluate the effects of each feature. The scenarios presented are: (1) the vegetated city, in which urban land is represented as natural vegetation mosaic in the land surface model; (2) the pervious city, in which low hydraulic conductivity values representing impervious surfaces are replaced with higher soil hydraulic conductivities; (3) the intact-sewer scenario, in which infiltration and inflow (I/I) of groundwater and stormwater into wastewater sewer pipes is removed; and (4) the no-anthropogenic- discharge-and-recharge scenario, in which all anthropogenic input and output fluxes are removed. We compared the subsurface storage of these scenarios to the base case model. We found that the pervious city subsurface storage was slightly greater than the subsurface storage in the base case, which is expected due to additional infiltration associated higher hydraulic conductivity values. The magnitude of this increase in subsurface storage was surprisingly small compared to changes found in other scenarios. The intact-sewer scenario eliminated the large quantity of groundwater infiltrating into wastewater pipes in the

  12. Water Security, Climate Forcings and Public Health Impacts in Emerging Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serman, E. A.; Akanda, A. S.; Craver, V.; Boving, T. B.

    2014-12-01

    Our world is rapidly urbanizing, with more than 80% of world's population is expected to be living in a city by the end of the century. A majority of these nations are rapidly urbanizing due to massive rural-to-urban migratory trends, with rapid development of unplanned urban settlements, or slums, with lack of adequate water or sanitation facilities and other municipal amenities. With global environmental change, natural disasters will expose millions more to drought, floods, and disease epidemics, and existing vulnerabilities will worsen. At the same time, rapid urbanization and fast changing land-use leads to widespread damage of infrastructure by stormwater, especially in lowlands and economically poor areas. The factor that consistently stands out among different cities from both the developed and the developing worlds is that the slums are typically the most vulnerable to water related natural hazards and climatic threats, such as water scarcity and quality issues in drought conditions, or water and sanitation breakdown and stormwater contamination problems. Onsite or decentralized water, wastewater and stormwater treatment as well as point-of-use water treatment options can be an economic, safe, and reliable alternative to conventional large-scale treatment especially, in urban fringes as well as rural areas. These systems can be designed to fit communities in terms of their economic, cultural, environmental, and demographic resources. As part of this study, we develop a database of urban water quality and quantity indices such as with urban land-use, water usage, climate, and socio-economic characteristics in various emerging regions in the world. We analyze past and current data to identify and quantify long-term trends and the impacts of large-scale climatic and anthropogenic changes on urban hydrology and health impacts. We specifically focus on five major cities from distinct groups of countries and geographies: Providence, RI, USA from the developed

  13. Characterizing the impact of urban emissions on regional aerosol particles; airborne measurements during the MEGAPOLI experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freney, E. J.; Sellegri, K.; Canonaco, F.; Colomb, A.; Borbon, A.; Michoud, V.; Doussin, J.-F.; Crumeyrolle, S.; Amarouch, N.; Pichon, J.-M.; Prévôt, A. S. H.; Beekmann, M.; Schwarzenböeck, A.

    2013-09-01

    , and have an impact on aerosol composition on a regional scale. They provide a quantitative measure of this impact in terms of urban plume composition and evolution relative to background aerosol composition.

  14. Analysis of impacts to groundwater and the vadose zone at an arid-region landfill in San Bernardino County, California

    SciTech Connect

    Finegan, J.M.; Campbell, A.M.; Keenan, R.J.

    1999-07-01

    Ten years of vadose zone gas and groundwater monitoring data for the Apple Valley Sanitary Landfill (AVSL), an arid-region municipal solid waste landfill in San Bernardino County, California, were examined to evaluate the nature, extent, and source of releases from this landfill. Landfill gas (LFG) was found to be the primary impact mechanism where groundwater degradation was demonstrated, and LFG contributions can be differentiated from other impact mechanisms. Because volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are the main groundwater contaminant at the AVSL, they were the main focus of this investigation, although inorganic compounds are also of significant interest. Groundwater impacts by liquid releases from seepage waste impoundments were also confirmed at the AVSL, while indications of impact by landfill leachate were not strongly supported. Monitoring data at this and other arid-region landfills, where rainfall is generally less than 255 mm per year and groundwater is relatively deep, show a lack of impact to groundwater from landfill leachate. The methods used to distinguish impact mechanisms at the AVSL are readily applicable to other sites as well.

  15. Successive Impacts Of The Earth by Several Halo CMEs From Active Region NOAA 652

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yousef, Shahinaz; El Nawawy, M. S.; El-Nazer, M.; Yousef, Mohamed

    Several Halo CMEs hit the Earth in the second half of July 2004. They were produced by the very large complex active region NOAA 652 (Yousef et al. 2005). For CME details consult the web (ftp://lasco6.nascom.nasa.gov/pub/lasco/status/LASCO_CME_List_004).

    We focus on the 26th -27th of July CME hit. This CME was associated with the long-duration M1 flare at 25/15:14. It made a very fast Sun to Earth transit-just over 31 hours (SGAS 27 July 2004). A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 25/18:55. Solar wind speed remained elevated from 500 to over 700 km/s. A Severe Geomagnetic storm was observed and the aurora was seen as far as California.

    A strong shock impacted the ACE spacecraft at 26/22:28. A sudden impulse (SI) of 96 nT was observed on the Boulder magnetometer at 22:51. The IMF Bz component was turned negative (-18 nT). Generally speaking, according to de Pater and Lissauer (2001), since a strong CME disturbance in the solar wind is usually preceded by an interplanetary shock followed by an enhanced density and velocity, the field strength first increases when the disturbance hits the magnetosphere, inducing an increase in the ring current. Several hours(up to over 25 hrs) the field strength Dst decreases dramatically during the storm main phase which typically lasts for a day The main phase is caused by an increase in the ring current, resulting from an enhanced particle flow towards the Earth. It is well known that geomagnetic storms tend to occur when IMF is directed southward. Magnetic reconnection occurs between the negative IMF and the magnetosphere thus opens the field lines with one end connected to the Earth (Dungey 1963). This magnetic reconnection allowed the protons and electrons to leak in. The proton and electron flux maximums occurred around the time of geomagnetic storm commencement which lasted for about 27 h (fig. 1). This is in agreement with the statement of Robinson (2003) that large numbers of energetic protons are

  16. Land use impact on soil quality in eastern Himalayan region of India.

    PubMed

    Singh, A K; Bordoloi, L J; Kumar, Manoj; Hazarika, S; Parmar, Brajendra

    2014-04-01

    Quantitative assessment of soil quality is required to determine the sustainability of land uses in terms of environmental quality and plant productivity. Our objective was to identify the most appropriate soil quality indicators and to evaluate the impact of six most prevalent land use types (natural forestland, cultivated lowland, cultivated upland terrace, shifting cultivation, plantation land, and grassland) on soil quality in eastern Himalayan region of India. We collected 120 soil samples (20 cm depth) and analyzed them for 29 physical, chemical, and biological soil attributes. For selection of soil quality indicators, principal component analysis (PCA) was performed on the measured attributes, which provided four principal components (PC) with eigenvalues >1 and explaining at least 5% of the variance in dataset. The four PCs together explained 92.6% of the total variance. Based on rotated factor loadings of soil attributes, selected indicators were: soil organic carbon (SOC) from PC-1, exchangeable Al from PC-2, silt content from PC-3, and available P and Mn from PC-4. Indicators were transformed into scores (linear scoring method) and soil quality index (SQI) was determined, on a scale of 0-1, using the weighting factors obtained from PCA. SQI rating was the highest for the least-disturbed sites, i.e., natural forestland (0.93) and grassland (0.87), and the lowest for the most intensively cultivated site, i.e., cultivated upland terrace (0.44). Ratings for the other land uses were shifting cultivation (0.60) > cultivated low land (0.57) > plantation land (0.54). Overall contribution (in percent) of the indicators in determination of SQI was in the order: SOC (58%) > exch. Al (17.1%) > available P (8.9%) > available Mn (8.2%) > silt content (7.8%). Results of this study suggest SOC and exch. Al as the two most powerful indicators of soil quality in study area. Thus, organic C and soil acidity management holds the key to improve soil

  17. Characterizing the impact of urban emissions on regional aerosol particles: airborne measurements during the MEGAPOLI experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freney, E. J.; Sellegri, K.; Canonaco, F.; Colomb, A.; Borbon, A.; Michoud, V.; Doussin, J.-F.; Crumeyrolle, S.; Amarouche, N.; Pichon, J.-M.; Bourianne, T.; Gomes, L.; Prevot, A. S. H.; Beekmann, M.; Schwarzenböeck, A.

    2014-02-01

    yields, we were able to predict ~50% of the measured organics. These airborne measurements during the MEGAPOLI experiment show that urban emissions contribute to the formation of OA and have an impact on aerosol composition on a regional scale.

  18. The air quality and health impacts of domestic trans-boundary pollution in various regions of China.

    PubMed

    Gu, Y; Yim, S H L

    2016-12-01

    Air pollution is one of the most pressing environmental problems in China. Literature has reported that outdoor air pollution leads to adverse health problems every year in China. Recent measurement studies found the important regional nature of particulates in China. Trans-boundary air pollution within China has yet to be fully understood. This study aimed to comprehensively understand the processes of domestic trans-boundary air pollution in China and to apportion the impacts of emissions in different regions on air quality and public health. We applied a state-of-the-art air quality model to simulate air quality in China and then adapted a form of integrated concentration-response function for China to estimate the resultant amount of premature mortality due to exposures to PM2.5. Our findings show that domestic trans-boundary impacts (TBI), on average, account for 27% of the total PM2.5 in China. We estimated that outdoor air pollution caused ~870,000 (95% CI: 130,000-1500,000) premature mortalities in China in 2010, of which on average 18% are attributed to TBI. Among all the regions, North China is the largest contributor to TBI due to 41% of the health impacts of its emissions occurring in other regions. Taiwan (TW) is the smallest contributor to TBI occurring in China, contributing 2% of the national TBI, while TBI causes 22% of the premature mortalities due to outdoor air pollution in TW. Our findings pinpoint the significant impacts of TBI on public health in China, indicating the need for cross-region cooperation to mitigate the air quality impacts and the nation's resultant health problems.

  19. Impact of lake-river connectivity and interflow on the Canadian RCM simulated regional climate and hydrology for Northeast Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huziy, O.; Sushama, L.

    2017-02-01

    Lakes affect regional climate by modulating surface albedo, surface energy, and moisture budgets. This is especially important for regions such as Northeast Canada with approximately 10 % of the landmass covered by lakes, wetlands and rivers. From the regional hydrology perspective, interactions between lakes and rivers are important as streamflow patterns can be significantly modified by lake storage, and similarly lake levels can be modified by streamflows. In this study, using a suite of experiments performed with the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) driven by the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasting ERA40 reanalysis data at the lateral boundaries for the 1979-2010 period, lake-river-atmosphere interactions and their impact on the regional climate/hydrology of north-east Canada are assessed. In these CRCM5 simulations, a one-dimensional lake model represents lakes, while the rivers are modeled using a distributed routing scheme, and one of the simulations includes interflow, i.e. lateral flow of water in the soil layers. Comparison of CRCM5 simulations with and without lakes suggests significant differences in winter/summer precipitation and winter temperature for the study region. CRCM5 simulations performed with and without lake-river interactions suggest improved representation of streamflows when lake storage and routing are taken into account. Adding the interflow process leads to increased streamflows during summer and fall seasons for the majority of the rivers, causing modest changes to land-atmosphere interactions via modified soil moisture. The impact of interflow on streamflow, obtained in this study, is comparable to the impact of lake-atmosphere interactions on streamflows. This study clearly demonstrates the need for realistic representation of lake-river interactions in regional climate models for realistic simulation of regional hydrology, particularly streamflows.

  20. Modeling the Impact of Uganda’s Safe Male Circumcision Program: Implications for Age and Regional Targeting

    PubMed Central

    Kripke, Katharine; Vazzano, Andrea; Kirungi, William; Musinguzi, Joshua; Opio, Alex; Ssempebwa, Rhobbinah; Nakawunde, Susan; Kyobutungi, Sheila; Akao, Juliet N.; Magala, Fred; Mwidu, George; Castor, Delivette

    2016-01-01

    Background Uganda aims to provide safe male circumcision (SMC) to 80% of men ages 15–49 by 2016. To date, only 2 million men have received SMC of the 4.2 million men required. In response to age and regional trends in SMC uptake, the country sought to re-examine its targets with respect to age and subnational region, to assess the program’s progress, and to refine the implementation approach. Methods and Findings The Decision Makers’ Program Planning Tool, Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0), was used in conjunction with incidence projections from the Spectrum/AIDS Impact Module (AIM) to conduct this analysis. Population, births, deaths, and HIV incidence and prevalence were used to populate the model. Baseline male circumcision prevalence was derived from the 2011 AIDS Indicator Survey. Uganda can achieve the most immediate impact on HIV incidence by circumcising men ages 20–34. This group will also require the fewest circumcisions for each HIV infection averted. Focusing on men ages 10–19 will offer the greatest impact over a 15-year period, while focusing on men ages 15–34 offers the most cost-effective strategy over the same period. A regional analysis showed little variation in cost-effectiveness of scaling up SMC across eight regions. Scale-up is cost-saving in all regions. There is geographic variability in program progress, highlighting two regions with low baseline rates of circumcision where additional efforts will be needed. Conclusion Focusing SMC efforts on specific age groups and regions may help to accelerate Uganda’s SMC program progress. Policy makers in Uganda have already used model outputs in planning efforts, proposing males ages 10–34 as a priority group for SMC in the 2014 application to the Global Fund’s new funding model. As scale-up continues, the country should also consider a greater effort to expand SMC in regions with low MC prevalence. PMID:27410234

  1. Impact of climate change on Vea Catchment and irrigation scheme in Upper East Region of Ghana

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Limantol, A. M.; Afouda, A.; Lenartz, B.; Agyare, W. A.

    2015-12-01

    The study assessed the future impact of climate change (CC) on water resources availability in the Vea catchment of the Upper East of Ghana for irrigated agriculture. A questionnaire survey targeting farmers with at least 30 years of farming experience in the area was conducted in 6 of the 11 agricultural extension areas (EAs) in the catchment (305 km2). Data on perception about CC, adaptation measures and barriers were captured by the questionnaire. Focus group discussions were also conducted in each of the 6 selected EAs. Additionally, 8 stakeholder institutions were interviewed. Climatic data over a period of 1972 to 2012 from four stations were evaluated. Future climate simulations from 16 Regional Climate Models were used to predict future streamflow with IHACRES runoff model. The WEAP model was used to assess future water availability in two future time slices, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. About 89.5% of 466 questioned farmers believe that temperature increased over the past 30 years, while over 94% of farmers believe that amount of rainfall; duration, intensity and rainy days decreased. Over 96% of farmers believe that their farms are extremely vulnerable to decreased rainfall, droughts and changed timing of rainfall. While analysis of climatic data shows rising trend in temperature, no long-term trend and no variability changes in both annual and monthly rainfall amounts were evident. High evapotranspiration due to rising temperature may have triggered the farmers' perception about rainfall trend and droughts in the area. Several measures such as cropping of new varieties, changing farm locations and use of more fertilizer have been employed by farmers to adjust to CC. It was found that CC could cause severe shortfall in water availability for irrigation and domestic supply in the coming decades. Government needs to assist farmers with alternative irrigation schemes and drought resistant crops in order to sustain livelihoods of farmers on the long run.

  2. Impact of plasma sheath on rocket-based E-region ion measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Imtiaz, Nadia; Burchill, Johnathan; Marchand, Richard

    2015-01-01

    We model the particle velocity distribution functions around the entrance window of the Suprathermal Ion Imager (SII). The SII sensor was mounted on a 1 m boom carried by the scientific payload of NASA rocket 36.234 as part of Joule II mission to investigate Joule heating in the E-region ionosphere. The rocket flew above Northern Alaska on 19 January 2007. The payload was spin-stabilized with a period of 1.6 s, giving an apparent rotation of the ion flow velocity in the frame of reference of the payload. The SII sensor is an electrostatic analyzer that measures two dimensional slices of the distribution of the kinetic energies and arrival-angles of low energy ions. The study is concerned with the interpretation of data obtained from the SII sensor. For this purpose, we numerically investigate ram velocity effects on ions velocity distributions in the vicinity of the SII sensor aperture at an altitudes of approximately 150 km. The electrostatic sheath profiles surrounding the SII sensor, boom and payload are calculated numerically with the PIC code PTetra. It is observed that the direction of the ion flow velocity modifies the plasma sheath potential profile. This in turn impacts the velocity distributions of NO+ and ions at the aperture of the particle sensor. The velocity distribution functions at the sensor aperture are calculated by using test-particle modeling. These particle distribution functions are then used to inject particles in the sensor, and calculate the fluxes on the sensor microchannel plate (MCP), from which comparisons with the measurements can be made.

  3. Impact of rotavirus vaccination in regions with low and moderate vaccine uptake in Germany

    PubMed Central

    Dudareva-Vizule, Sandra; Koch, Judith; an der Heiden, Matthias; Oberle, Doris; Keller-Stanislawski, Brigitte; Wichmann, Ole

    2012-01-01

    In Germany, routine RV-vaccination is not adopted into the national immunization schedule as of 2012. Because RV-vaccines were already on the market since 2006, in 2010 a moderate (58%) and low (22%) vaccine uptake was observed in the 5 eastern federal states (EFS) and the 11 western federal states (WFS), respectively. To assess the impact of RV-vaccination, we compared the incidence rates (IR) of RV-related hospitalizations before (2004‒2006) and in seasons after (2008/09–2010/11) RV-vaccine introduction in Germany by utilizing data from the national mandatory disease reporting system. In the EFS, the IR was significantly reduced in age-groups < 18 mo in 2008/09 and in age-groups < 24 mo in 2009/10–2010/11. In the WFS an IR-reduction was observed only in age-groups < 12 mo in 2008/09 and in age-groups < 18 mo in 2009/10–2010/11. Overall IR-reduction in age-groups < 24 mo comparing 2008–11 with 2004–06 was 36% and 25% in EFS and WFS, respectively. In addition, we computed IR-ratios (IRR) in the seasons after mid-2006 with negative binomial regression. The effect of vaccination was independent from the geographic region. Vaccination was associated with a significant reduction in RV-related hospitalizations in the age-groups 6–23 mo. Most prominently, vaccination of 50% of infants led to an estimated decrease in age group 6–11 mo by 42%. No significant reduction was observed in age-groups ≥ 24 mo. In conclusion, in the German setting with low to moderate vaccine uptake, RV-related hospitalization incidence decreased substantially depending on the achieved vaccination coverage, but only in the first two years of life. PMID:22960495

  4. Methanogenesis: Seasonal changes in human impacted regions of Ashtamudi estuary (Kerala, South India)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reshmi, R. R.; Deepa Nair, K.; Zachariah, E. J.; Vincent, Salom Gnana Thanga

    2015-04-01

    Environmental variables as well as methanogenic abundance and activity were analysed in selected human impacted regions of Ashtamudi estuary. Sediment samples were collected during summer and monsoon of 2013. Each was analysed for environmental variables such as temperature, pH, electrical conductivity, sulphate, total kjeldahl nitrogen, organic carbon, organic matter and redox potential. Abundance and methanogenic potential of two distinct groups of methanogenic archaea (i.e. aceticlastic and methylotrophic methanogens) were quantified by incubating the sediment samples in basal media, added with acetate or methanol as substrate. Most of the environmental variables showed significant differences spatially and temporally. Among the environmental variables, temperature, pH, electrical conductivity and salinity were higher during summer, while total kjeldahl nitrogen, sulphate and organic carbon were higher during monsoon. Abundance of both aceticlastic and methylotrophic methanogens showed significant variations both spatially and temporally. Aceticlastic methanogens were abundant during monsoon, with a maximum value of 810 ± 13 CFU g-1, and methylotrophic methanogens were abundant during summer, with a maximum value of 1770 ± 30 CFU g-1. Results of methanogenic potential of sediment samples showed a range of 0.01 ± 0.00 to 12.03 ± 0.35 mol m-3. Among the two substrates, methanol favoured the abundance of methylotrophic methanogens, while acetate induced the methanogenic activity. Methanogenic activity was higher during monsoon than summer that can be attributed to the favourable sedimentary conditions (like reduced redox potential and increased substrate availability). Aceticlastic methanogens were abundant at bottom layers and methylotrophic methanogens in top layers of the sediments. The results of canonical correspondence analysis revealed the existence of linear relationship between methanogenic archaea and environmental variables among the sampling

  5. Forest fires in Northern region of Portugal: Impact on PM levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slezakova, Klara; Morais, Simone; Pereira, Maria do Carmo

    2013-06-01

    Every year European citizens become victims of devastating fires, which are especially disastrous for Southern European countries. Apart from the numerous health and economic consequences, fires generate hazardous pollutants that are introduced into the environment, thus representing serious risks for public health. In that regard, particulate matter (PM) is of a major concern. Thus, the objectives of this work were to characterize the trend of forest fire occurrences and burnt area during the period of 2005 and 2010 and to study the influence of forest fires on levels of particulate matter PM10 and PM2.5. In 2010, 22,026 forest fires occurred in Portugal. The northern region was the most affected by forest fires, with 27% of occurrences in Oporto district. The annual means of PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations at two urban background sites were 25 ± 14 μg m- 3 and 8.2 ± 4.9 μg m- 3, and 17 ± 13 μg m- 3 and 7.3 ± 5.9 μg m- 3, respectively. At both sites the highest levels of PM fractions were observed during July and August of 2010, corresponding to the periods when majority (66%) of forest fires occurred. Furthermore, PM10 daily limit at the two sites was exceeded during 20 and 5 days, respectively; 56%, and respectively 60% of those exceedances occurred during the forest fire season. Considering that the risks of forest fire ignition and severity are enhanced with elevated temperatures, the climate change might increase the environmental impacts of forest fires.

  6. Global and regional climate impacts of black carbon and co-emitted species from the on-road diesel sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lund, Marianne T.; Berntsen, Terje K.; Heyes, Chris; Klimont, Zbigniew; Samset, Bjørn H.

    2014-12-01

    Diesel vehicles are a significant source of black carbon (BC) and ozone precursors, which are important contributors to climate warming, degrade air quality and harm human health. Reducing diesel emissions could mitigate near-term climate change with significant co-benefits. This study quantifies the global and regional climate impacts of BC and co-emitted short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) from present-day on-road diesel vehicles, as well as future impacts following a current legislation emission scenario. Atmospheric concentrations are calculated by the chemical transport model OsloCTM2. The following radiative forcing (RF) and equilibrium surface temperature responses are estimated. For year 2010 on-road diesel emissions we estimate a global-mean direct RF from BC of 44 m W/m2 and an equilibrium surface temperature response of 59 mK, including the impact of BC deposition on snow. Accounting for cooling and warming impacts of co-emitted SLCFs results in a net global-mean RF and warming of 28 mW/m2 and 48 mK, respectively. Using the concept of Regional Temperature change Potential (RTP), we find significant geographical differences in the responses to regional emissions. Accounting for the vertical sensitivities of the forcing/response relation amplifies these differences. In terms of individual source regions, emissions in Europe give the largest regional contribution to equilibrium warming caused by year 2010 on-road diesel BC, while Russia is most important for Arctic warming per unit emission. The largest contribution to warming caused by the year 2050 on-road diesel sector is from emissions in South Asia, followed by East Asia and the Middle East. Hence, in regions where current legislation is not sufficient to outweigh the expected growth in activity, accelerated policy implementation is important for further future mitigation.

  7. Diffuse nutrient losses and the impact factors determining their regional differences in four catchments from North to South China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yongyong; Zhou, Yujian; Shao, Quanxi; Liu, Hongbin; Lei, Qiuliang; Zhai, Xiaoyan; Wang, Xuelei

    2016-12-01

    Diffuse nutrient loss mechanism is complicated and shows remarkably regional differences due to spatial heterogeneities of underlying surface conditions, climate and agricultural practices. Moreover, current available observations are still hard to support the identification of impact factors due to different time or space steps. In this study, an integrated water system model (HEQM) was adopted to obtain the simulated loads of diffuse components (carriers: runoff and sediment; nutrient: total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorous (TP)) with synchronous scales. Multivariable statistical analysis approaches (Analysis of Similarity and redundancy analysis) were used to assess the regional differences, and to identify impact factors as well as their contributions. Four catchments were selected as our study areas, i.e., Xiahui and Zhangjiafen Catchments of Miyun Basin in North China, Yuliang and Tunxi Catchments of Xin'anjiang Basin in South China. Results showed that the model performances of monthly processes were very good for runoff and good for sediment, TN and TP. The annual average coefficients of all the diffuse components in Xin'anjiang Basin were much greater than those in Miyun Basin, and showed significantly regional differences. All the selected impact factors interpreted 72.87-82.16% of the regional differences of carriers, and 62.72-71.62% of those of nutrient coefficients, respectively. For individual impact factor categories, the critical category was geography, followed by land-use/cover, carriers, climate, as well as soil and agricultural practices in Miyun Basin, or agricultural practices and soil in Xin'anjiang Basin. For individual factors, the critical factors were locations for the carrier regional differences, and carriers or chemical fertilizer for the nutrient regional differences. This study is expected to promote further applications of integrated water system model and multivariable statistical analysis in the diffuse nutrient studies, and

  8. Change of region conspicuity in bilateral mammograms: potential impact on CAD performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Bin; Wang, Xiao Hui; Chang, Yuan-Hsiang; Hardesty, Lara A.; Ganott, Marie A.; Good, Walter F.; Gur, David

    2002-05-01

    In this study, we test a new method to automatically search for matched regions in bilateral digitized mammograms and to compute differences in region conspicuities in pairs of matched regions. One hundred pairs of bilateral images of the same view were selected for the experiment. Each pair of images depicted one verified mass. These 100 mass regions, along with 356 suspicious but actually negative mass regions, were first detected by a single-image-based CAD scheme. To find the matched regions in the corresponding bilateral images, a Procrustean-type technique was used to register the two images, which corrects the deformation of tissue structure between images by guaranteeing the registration of nipples, skin lines, and chest walls. Then, a region growth algorithm was applied to generate a growth region in the matched area, which has the same effective size as the suspicious region in the abnormal image. The conspicuities in the two matched regions, as well as their differences, were computed. Using the conspicuity in the original mass regions and the difference of conspicuities in the two matched regions as two identification indices to classify this set of 456 suspicious regions, the computed areas under the ROC curves (Az) were 0.77 and 0.75, respectively. This preliminary study indicates that by comparing the difference of conspicuities in two matched regions that a very useful feature for the CAD schemes can be extracted.

  9. High-resolution modelling of the potential impact of land-surface conditions on regional climate over the Southeast Asia monsoon region associated with the diurnal rainfall cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Hiroshi G.; Yoshikane, Takao; Hara, Masayuki; Takata, Kumiko; Yasunari, Tetsuzo

    2010-05-01

    This study examined the impact of changes in land-surface conditions on regional climate over Indochina using a high-resolution regional climate model. Anthropogenically-induced land-surface changes are ongoing in this part of tropical Southeast Asia. Because a previous study suggested that deforestation in this area affected September precipitation, we chose September as the study period. We performed a control simulation (CTL) driven by reanalysis data combined with current land use and predicted soil-moisture data. The CTL reproduced the spatial distribution of total precipitation well. In addition, it also simulated a distinct diurnal cycle of precipitation that was previously reported in observational studies. Two sensitivity experiments, assuming wetter and drier land-surface conditions over the Khorat Plateau (northeast Thailand) compared with the current land-surface condition, were conducted and examined the impact of land-surface changes on precipitation. The results indicated that drier land-surface conditions increased precipitation over the disturbed region. A pronounced increase in precipitation was found only during nighttime, which coincided with the peak in the climatological diurnal precipitation cycle. Climatologically, the diurnal peak in precipitation occurs from evening to early morning over the Khorat Plateau. Drier conditions intensified the diurnal variation of precipitable water associated with the thermally-induced local circulation responsible for a horizontal gradient of near-surface temperature. The effects of land-use and land-cover changes in the tropics are shown to be strongly related to the diurnal precipitation cycle.

  10. Advancing scientific base lines for the integrated assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in mountain regions in developing countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huggel, C.; Jurt, N. Salzmann, C.; Calanca, P.; Ordonez, A. Diaz, J.; Zappa, T. Jonas M.; Konzelmann, T.; Lagos, P.; Obersteiner, M.; Rohrer, M.; Silverio, W.

    2009-04-01

    Adaptation to climate change impacts is a major challenge for the human society. For countries in development, consistent base lines of expected impacts at the regional scale are required to plan and implement low-cost adaptation measures that effectively address societal needs. However, donors and implementing agencies are often confronted with a lack of scientific data. This poses a serious problem to global adaptation funds, such as the one established under the UNFCCC, which are predominantly directed towards developing countries. This contribution summarizes recent experiences gained from international projects in the Andes, by the Peruvian and Swiss Governments, and the World Bank, on the development of scientific base lines for selected regions in the Peruvian Andes. The focus is on the nexus between water resources, food security and natural disasters. The analysis shows that Peruvian Andes are among the most vulnerable regions to climate change. Negative impacts on water resources are expected from the rapid retreat of glaciers, extended and more frequent drought periods and increasing human needs. Climate change impacts are exacerbated by continued sub-optimal resource management. As a consequence of growing stresses, water availability for human consumption, agriculture and energy generation is increasingly limited. Assessment of the current conditions and reliable projections for the future are hampered by scarce data availability and methodological problems, such as downscaling of global and regional climate scenarios, cross-sector effects, and others. It is critical that related uncertainties, and the propagation thereof, are assessed throughout the impact analysis for an improved management of adaptation measures. Challenges furthermore include communication and understanding among different actors, including the scientific community, political and implementation agencies, and local population. Based on our experiences we will outline a good practice

  11. Cross - Scale Intercomparison of Climate Change Impacts Simulated by Regional and Global Hydrological Models in Eleven Large River Basins

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Florke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.; Wada, Y.

    2017-01-01

    Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity to climate variability and climate change is comparable for impact models designed for either scale. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of the two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases, but have distinct differences in other cases, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability. Whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models calibrated and validated against observed discharge should be used.

  12. Possible climatic impacts of a biologically driven phosphorus pump associated with ice regions in the southern ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sambrotto, R.

    2003-04-01

    Significant departures from the expected 16:1 (by mole) ratio between nitrogen and phosphorus consumption in surface waters have been recorded during several independent studies in ice-impacted regions of the Southern Ocean. Both the marginal ice zone near the Polar Front as well as near shore polynyas exhibit low N/P ratios (below 8 for the latter). The existence of a surface phosphorus pump suggests that at least some of the observed variations in the deep-water N/P ratio may have been erroneously attributed to the nitrogen cycle. While luxury consumption of phosphate by diatoms is not limited to high-latitude seas, its prevalence there is significant because it occurs in regions of deep water mass formation. Thus, it imparts a characteristic nutrient signature to deep waters and may result in a lateral redistribution of phosphorus as Antarctic Bottom Water spreads north. This appears to be the case in the western Pacific. This deep water pumping diminishes the supply of phosphorus to surface waters of the sub-polar region and thus impacts large-scale ocean productivity. In addition, because the high latitude phosphorus pump is linked to ice-impacted regions, it is sensitive to variations in ice cover and deep-water formation, and may have a feedback to climate as these conditions change.

  13. Can Crop Models Simulate the ENSO Impacts on Regional Corn Yield in U.s. Corn Belt?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niyogi, D. S.; Liu, X.; Andresen, J.; Jain, A. K.; Kumar, A.; Kellner, O.; Elias, A.

    2013-12-01

    In this paper, we seek to answer two questions: 1. Whether climate variability/ ENSO events impact the corn yield in U.S. Corn Belt?; and 2.Can crop models capture these impacts?. First, we evaluated the relationships between ENSO events and regional corn yield in the U.S Corn Belt, by taking data from 18 representative crop reporting districts for a 30 year period (1981-2010). These data were compiled as part of a large multiscale NIFA project titled U2U that aims at making Climate Information Useful to Usable. We clustered the data for different ENSO phases and performed statistical analysis to understand the impacts on corn yield. The detrended observed data indicate that El Niño events have positive impact on corn yields while La Niña events have slightly negative impact. These results are statistically significant at 0.05 level. To investigate whether crop models can capture the impacts of El Niño / La Niña; we compared the yields from three different crop models of varying complexity (Hybrid Maize; DSSAT; and ISAM) with default/ common agronomic and onsite meteorological input. Simulated yields show similar pattern as seen in the observed data: higher yield for El Niño years, and lower yields for the La Niña years. However, we also found MAE (Mean absolute error) of simulations in El Niño years are higher than for the La Niña years and Neutral years. To understand whether the performance can be enhanced by providing regional climatology, hydroclimatological, or agronomic information - we conducted additional experiments with the Hybrid Maize models involving- (i) use of onsite versus regional reanalysis data - the hypothesis being that even if the onsite data may have limited ENSO signature; the reanalysis data will have a much stronger ENSO feedback embedded within; (ii) use of actual planting date versus the default value used in the crop models - to understand if the year to year agronomic practice might influence or improve the response to capture

  14. The Beaverhead impact structure, SW Montana and Idaho: Implications for the regional geology of the western U.S.

    SciTech Connect

    Fiske, P.S.; Hargaves, R.B.

    1994-03-17

    The Beaverhead impact structure in SW Montana and Idaho is an allochthonous fragment of a large impact structure ({approximately} 100 km diameter) that was transported some distance eastward during the Cretaceous Sevier orogeny. It is the first tectonic fragment of a large impact structure identified in the geologic record. The present evidence for impact consists of shatter cones, pseudotachylites, and planar deformation features in quartz. The age of the impact is not well constrained but is estimated to be Neoproterozoic to Cambrian (1000-500 Ma). The Beaverhead impact event must have created other features that may be preserved, elsewhere in western Montana and Idaho. These include proximal and distal ejecta (which may be misinterpreted as diamictites and/or tuff horizons) and other fragments of the crater floor containing shatter cones and pseudotachylite. A large circular gravity, magnetic and topographic anomaly, which could be the root of the impact structure, has been identified near Challis, Idaho. An enigmatic lithic tuff, identified in drill cores from the Challis area and an intraformational quartzite breccia in the Leaton Gulch area may be impact-related deposits, but no definitive evidence of shock metamorphism has been observed in these materials. The discovery of more pieces of the Beaverhead puzzle, as well as the recognition of other large impacts in the geologic record, are likely once the regional geologic community grows to accept the incidence of such events and becomes more familiar with the features of shock metamorphism in the field. To that end, the community of geologists in this area should integrate the Beaverhead structure into their research and teaching curriculum.

  15. Environmental Impact Assessment of Shrimp Culture Practice in Southwest Coastal Region of Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Islam, M. M.; Rouf, M. A.; Hambrey, J.

    2008-12-01

    The rapid unplanned expansion of coastal aquaculture in Bangladesh poses risks in degrading environment. The unsustainable aquaculture practices are suspected to impart significant nutrient load to the ecosystem. Nevertheless, shrimp production is very less and susceptible to sever mortality. For this, the study aimed to understand the management practices and nutrient flux from some represented shrimp ponds in southwest coastal region of Bangladesh. A comprehensive study from 2002 to 2004 was done in an aquatic system comprising a river (Semi diurnal tidal system), a canal and 10 shrimp ponds along with wider area survey to verify the issues under a DFID-funded research project involving Nautilus Consultants Ltd. (UK). In the study area (Dumuria under the district Khulna) shrimp culture practices were mostly improved extensive. Shrimp were being produced without proper pond preparation, fry nursing, stocking or feed management due to lack of technical somehow and the risks involved with higher levels of investment. Consequently production rates were very low, averaging only 191 Kg/ha. Very high mortality of shrimp was reported in some of the farms using shallow ponds immediately after heavy rainfall. This may due to the sudden fluctuation of water pH and/or water temperature and salinity. The water quality in shrimp ponds during grow out period was in acceptable range except lower trend of DO and ammonia nitrogen. Year round water quality observations indicated that there were no major differences among the river, canal and pond water that might be due to the high water flushing rate (468%). The nutrient dynamics estimation indicates that 48.7 kg/ha/cycle of nitrogen and 28.96 kg/ha/cycle of phosphorus were added to the pond as an input mostly from fertilizer and feed. Among the inputs, only 33.4% of nitrogen and 6% of phosphorus were removed as harvested form. A large portion, 39.1% N and 92% P were remained in the sediments and unaccounted for. Average intake of

  16. Assessment of the Impacts of Hydraulic Fracturing at Bakken on Regional Water Resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Z.; Lin, T.; Lim, S.; Borders, M.

    2015-12-01

    Unconventional oil production at the Bakken Shale of western North Dakota increased more than ten-fold from 2008 to 2014. Although unconventional oil production uses less water than conventional oil production per unit of energy, the cumulative water needs for unconventional oil production due to multiple drilling and fracturing operations may be locally or temporally significant. We collected and analyzed the data for a total of 8453 horizontal wells developed at Bakken in western North Dakota during 2007-2014. The hydraulic fracturing activities mainly occurred in a core area of four counties, including Dunn, McKenzie, Mountrail, and Williams. The annual total water used for hydraulic fracking in western North Dakota increased from 302 ac-ft in 2007 to 21,605 ac-ft in 2014, by more than 70 times in 8 years. The four-county core area accounted for about 90% of total hydraulic fracturing water use in western North Dakota. Compared to the total water uses of all types, hydraulic fracturing water use in the four-county core area accounted for 0.7% in 2007 and 43.1% in 2014. Statewide, this percentage increased from 0.1% to 6.1% in the same time period. As horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies matured for unconventional oil development at Bakken, the total depth and the total length of laterals per well seemed to reach an optimal value in the last four years (2011-2014). However, the number of fracturing stages and the volume of fracking water used per completion are still on the rise. The average water use per well increased from about 1.7 ac-ft in 2007 to 11.4 ac-ft in 2014. Correspondingly, the water intensity (volume of fracking water used per foot of laterals) increased from 67 gallon/ft in 2007 to about 372 gallon/ft 2014. The results helped us better understand the environmental impacts of hydraulic fracturing at Bakken and better manage the water resources in the region.

  17. Impacts of anthropogenic forcing on regional climate simulation for CORDEX-East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Song Yee; Kang, Hyun Suk; Hyun, Yu Kyung

    2015-04-01

    Impacts of greenhouse gas and aerosol on climate change are crucial, so that it is trivial for CMIP models to consider anthropogenic forcing for current climate simulations and future projection as well. Meanwhile, for regional climate models, it is still ambiguous if those forcings are duplicated or not, since the large-scale information is provided from the GCM models through the lateral boundary condition. To answer this question, four experiments using the HadGEM3-RA were conducted within the CORDEX framework for the East Asia domain, which are defined as FIXF (Fixed forcing experiment), GHGS (Greenhouse gases forcing only on the FIXF), AERO (Aerosol forcing only on the FIXF), and ALL (Both forcings on the FIXF) experiments. All experiments were driven by the same GCM forcing, i.e., HadGEM2-AO. Simulation results for the current (27 years for 1979-2005) and future (30 years for 2071-2100) climate were analyzed. FIXF experiment simulated significant cold biases near the northwestern China and Mongolia. Compared to results from the FIXF, those from the ALL and AERO were better, particularly for the temperature in northwestern China and for the precipitation in southern China, Indonesia and northwestern Pacific. Reduced cold bias in northwestern China is highly associated with the aerosol forcing, and marginally associated with the greenhouse gases forcing. As a result, temperature simulated by ALL experiment shows less bias than any other experiments. In the future, surface air temperature was projected stronger in ALL than FIXF experiment in late 21st century. Especially, based on the future projection from the ALL experiment, increase in domain-averaged surface air temperature is about 3.0oC (4.2oC) under the RCP 4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. In future change of precipitation, regardless of forcing experiments, annual mean precipitation over maritime continent and northwestern Pacific are expected to increase. And percent change in annual mean precipitation of ALL

  18. Assessing the impact of climate-change scenarios on landslide occurrence in Umbria Region, Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ciabatta, L.; Camici, S.; Brocca, L.; Ponziani, F.; Stelluti, M.; Berni, N.; Moramarco, T.

    2016-10-01

    Landslides are frequent and widespread geomorphological phenomena causing loss of human life and damage to property. The main tool for assessing landslide risk relies on rainfall thresholds and thus, many countries established early warning systems aimed to landslide hazard assessment. The Umbria Region Civil Protection Centre developed an operational early warning system for landslide risk assessment, named PRESSCA, based on the soil saturation conditions to identify rainfall thresholds. These thresholds, currently used by the Civil Protection operators for the day-by-day landslide hazard assessment, provided satisfactory results with more than 86% of the landslides events correctly identified during the period 1990-2013. In this study, the PRESSCA system was employed for the assessment of climate change impact on landslide hazard in Central Italy. The outputs of five different Global Circulation Models (GCMs) were downscaled and weather generators were used for obtaining hourly rainfall and temperature time series from daily GCMs projection. Then, PRESSCA system was employed to estimate the number of landslide occurrence per year. By comparing results obtained for three different periods (1990-2013 (baseline), 2040-2069 and 2070-2099), for the Umbria territory a general increase in events occurrence was expected (up to more than 40%) in the future period, mainly during the winter season. The results also revealed that the effect of climate change on landslides was not straightforward to identify and the close interaction between rainfall magnitude/intensity, temperature and soil moisture should be analysed in depth. Overall, soil moisture was projected to decrease throughout the year but during the wet season the variations with respect to the present period were very small. Specifically, it was found that during the warm-dry season, due to the strong decrease of soil moisture, even for a sensible increase in rainfall intensity, the landslide occurrence was

  19. Regional variability in dust-on-snow processes and impacts in the Upper Colorado River Basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Skiles, S. McKenzie; Painter, Thomas H.; Belnap, Jayne; Holland, Lacey; Reynolds, Richard; Goldstein, Harland; Lin, J.

    2015-01-01

    Dust deposition onto mountain snow cover in the Upper Colorado River Basin frequently occurs in the spring when wind speeds and dust emission peaks on the nearby Colorado Plateau. Dust loading has increased since the intensive settlement in the western USA in the mid 1880s. The effects of dust-on-snow have been well studied at Senator Beck Basin Study Area (SBBSA) in the San Juan Mountains, CO, the first high-altitude area of contact for predominantly southwesterly winds transporting dust from the southern Colorado Plateau. To capture variability in dust transport from the broader Colorado Plateau and dust deposition across a larger area of the Colorado River water sources, an additional study plot was established in 2009 on Grand Mesa, 150 km to the north of SBBSA in west central, CO. Here, we compare the 4-year (2010–2013) dust source, deposition, and radiative forcing records at Grand Mesa Study Plot (GMSP) and Swamp Angel Study Plot (SASP), SBBSA's subalpine study plot. The study plots have similar site elevations/environments and differ mainly in the amount of dust deposited and ensuing impacts. At SASP, end of year dust concentrations ranged from 0.83 mg g−1 to 4.80 mg g−1, and daily mean spring dust radiative forcing ranged from 50–65 W m−2, advancing melt by 24–49 days. At GMSP, which received 1.0 mg g−1 less dust per season on average, spring radiative forcings of 32–50 W m−2 advanced melt by 15–30 days. Remote sensing imagery showed that observed dust events were frequently associated with dust emission from the southern Colorado Plateau. Dust from these sources generally passed south of GMSP, and back trajectory footprints modelled for observed dust events were commonly more westerly and northerly for GMSP relative to SASP. These factors suggest that although the southern Colorado Plateau contains important dust sources, dust contributions from other dust sources contribute to dust loading in this region

  20. Global Impacts and Regional Actions: Preparing for the 1997-98 El Niño.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buizer, James L.; Foster, Josh; Lund, David

    2000-09-01

    It has been estimated that severe El Niño-related flooding and droughts in Africa, Latin America, North America, and Southeast Asia resulted in more than 22 000 lives lost and in excess of $36 billion in damages during 1997-98. As one of the most severe events this century, the 1997-98 El Niño was unique not only in terms of physical magnitude, but also in terms of human response. This response was made possible by recent advances in climate-observing and forecasting systems, creation and dissemination of forecast information by institutions such as the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, and individuals in climate-sensitive sectors willing to act on forecast information by incorporating it into their decision-making. The supporting link between the forecasts and their practical application was a product of efforts by several national and international organizations, and a primary focus of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Office of Global Programs (NOAA/OGP).NOAA/OGP over the last decade has supported pilot projects in Latin America, the Caribbean, the South Pacific, Southeast Asia, and Africa to improve transfer of forecast information to climate sensitive sectors, study linkages between climate and human health, and distribute climate information products in certain areas. Working with domestic and international partners, NOAA/OGP helped organize a total of 11 Climate Outlook Fora around the world during the 1997-98 El Niño. At each Outlook Forum, climatologists and meteorologists created regional, consensus-based, seasonal precipitation forecasts and representatives from climate-sensitive sectors discussed options for applying forecast information. Additional ongoing activities during 1997-98 included research programs focused on the social and economic impacts of climate change and the regional manifestations of global-scale climate variations and their effect on

  1. Climate change impacts on water availability: developing regional scenarios for agriculture of the Former Soviet Union countries of Central Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirilenko, A.; Dronin, N.

    2010-12-01

    Water is the major factor, limiting agriculture of the five Former Soviet Union (FSU) of Central Asia. Elevated topography prevents moist and warm air from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans from entering the region.With exception of Kazakhstan, agriculture is generally restricted to oases and irrigated lands along the major rivers and canals. Availability of water for irrigation is the major factor constraining agriculture in the region, and conflicts over water are not infrequent. The current water crisis in the region is largely due to human activity; however the region is also strongly impacted by the climate. In multiple locations, planned and autonomous adaptations to climate change have already resulted in changes in agriculture, such as a dramatic increase in irrigation, or shift in crops towards the ones better suited for warmer and dryer climate; however, it is hard to differentiate between the effects of overall management improvement and the avoidance of climate-related losses. Climate change will contribute to water problems, escalating irrigation demand during the drought period, and increasing water loss with evaporation. The future of the countries of the Aral Sea basin then depends on both the regional scenario of water management policy and a global scenario of climate change, and is integrated with global socioeconomic scenarios. We formulate a set of regional policy scenarios (“Business as Usual”, “Falling Behind” and “Closing the Gap”) and demonstrate how each of them corresponds to IPCC SRES scenarios, the latter used as an input to the General Circulation Models (GCMs). Then we discuss the relative effectiveness of the introduced scenarios for mitigating water problems in the region, taking into account the adaptation through changing water demand for agriculture. Finally, we introduce the results of multimodel analysis of GCM climate projections, especially in relation to the change in precipitation and frequency of droughts, and

  2. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Antle, J. M.; Elliott, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIP's community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPs/SSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate change's impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIP's 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  3. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John

    2015-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  4. The sustainable water-energy nexus: Life-cycle impacts and feasibility of regional energy and water supply scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dale, Alexander T.

    Water and energy are critical, interdependent, and regional resources, and effective planning and policies around which sources to use requires combining information on environmental impacts, cost, and availability. Questions around shifting energy and water sources towards more renewable options, as well as the potential role of natural gas from shale formations are under intense discussion. Decisions on these issues will be made in the shadow of climate change, which will both impact and be impacted by energy and water supplies. This work developed a model for calculating the life-cycle environmental impacts of regional energy and water supply scenarios (REWSS). The model was used to discuss future energy pathways in Pennsylvania, future electricity impacts in Brazil, and future water pathways in Arizona. To examine energy in Pennsylvania, this work also developed the first process-based life-cycle assessment (LCA) of shale gas, focusing on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, energy consumption, and water consumption. This LCA confirmed results that shale gas is similar to conventional gas in GHG emissions, though potentially has a lower net energy due to a wide range of production rates for wells. Brazil's electricity-related impacts will rise as development continues. GHG emissions are shown to double by 2020 due to expanded natural gas (NG) and coal usage, with a rise of 390% by 2040 posssible with tropical hydropower reservoirs. While uncertainty around reservoir impacts is large, Brazil's low GHG emissions intensity and future carbon emissions targets are threatened by likely electricity scenarios. Pennsylvania's energy-related impacts are likely to hinge on whether NG is used as a replacement for coal, allowing GHG emissions to drop and then plateau at 93% of 2010 values; or as a transition fuel to expanded renewable energy sources, showing a steady decrease to 86% in 2035. Increased use of biofuels will dominate land occupation and may dominate water

  5. Local and Regional Impacts of Pollution on Coral Reefs along the Thousand Islands North of the Megacity Jakarta, Indonesia.

    PubMed

    Baum, Gunilla; Januar, Hedi I; Ferse, Sebastian C A; Kunzmann, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    Worldwide, coral reefs are challenged by multiple stressors due to growing urbanization, industrialization and coastal development. Coral reefs along the Thousand Islands off Jakarta, one of the largest megacities worldwide, have degraded dramatically over recent decades. The shift and decline in coral cover and composition has been extensively studied with a focus on large-scale gradients (i.e. regional drivers), however special focus on local drivers in shaping spatial community composition is still lacking. Here, the spatial impact of anthropogenic stressors on local and regional scales on coral reefs north of Jakarta was investigated. Results indicate that the direct impact of Jakarta is mainly restricted to inshore reefs, separating reefs in Jakarta Bay from reefs along the Thousand Islands further north. A spatial patchwork of differentially degraded reefs is present along the islands as a result of localized anthropogenic effects rather than regional gradients. Pollution is the main anthropogenic stressor, with over 80% of variation in benthic community composition driven by sedimentation rate, NO2, PO4 and Chlorophyll a. Thus, the spatial structure of reefs is directly related to intense anthropogenic pressure from local as well as regional sources. Therefore, improved spatial management that accounts for both local and regional stressors is needed for effective marine conservation.

  6. Local and Regional Impacts of Pollution on Coral Reefs along the Thousand Islands North of the Megacity Jakarta, Indonesia

    PubMed Central

    Baum, Gunilla; Januar, Hedi I.; Ferse, Sebastian C. A.; Kunzmann, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    Worldwide, coral reefs are challenged by multiple stressors due to growing urbanization, industrialization and coastal development. Coral reefs along the Thousand Islands off Jakarta, one of the largest megacities worldwide, have degraded dramatically over recent decades. The shift and decline in coral cover and composition has been extensively studied with a focus on large-scale gradients (i.e. regional drivers), however special focus on local drivers in shaping spatial community composition is still lacking. Here, the spatial impact of anthropogenic stressors on local and regional scales on coral reefs north of Jakarta was investigated. Results indicate that the direct impact of Jakarta is mainly restricted to inshore reefs, separating reefs in Jakarta Bay from reefs along the Thousand Islands further north. A spatial patchwork of differentially degraded reefs is present along the islands as a result of localized anthropogenic effects rather than regional gradients. Pollution is the main anthropogenic stressor, with over 80% of variation in benthic community composition driven by sedimentation rate, NO2, PO4 and Chlorophyll a. Thus, the spatial structure of reefs is directly related to intense anthropogenic pressure from local as well as regional sources. Therefore, improved spatial management that accounts for both local and regional stressors is needed for effective marine conservation. PMID:26378910

  7. Land use and land cover change impacts on the regional climate of non-Amazonian South America: A review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salazar, Alvaro; Baldi, Germán; Hirota, Marina; Syktus, Jozef; McAlpine, Clive

    2015-05-01

    Land use and land cover change (LUCC) affects regional climate through modifications in the water balance and energy budget. These impacts are frequently expressed by: changes in the amount and frequency of precipitation and alteration of surface temperatures. In South America, most of the studies of the effects of LUCC on the local and regional climate have focused on the Amazon region (54 studies), whereas LUCC within non-Amazonian regions have been largely undermined regardless their potential importance in regulating the regional climate (19 studies). We estimated that 3.6 million km2 of the original natural vegetation cover in non-Amazonian South America were converted into other types of land use, which is about 4 times greater than the historical Amazon deforestation. Moreover, there is evidence showing that LUCC within such fairly neglected ecosystems cause significant reductions in precipitation and increases in surface temperatures, with occasional impacts affecting neighboring or remote areas. We explore the implications of these findings in the context of water security, climatic extremes and future research priorities.

  8. Socioeconomic assessment of defense waste processing facility impacts in the Savannah River Plant region

    SciTech Connect

    Peelle, E.; Reed, J.H.; Stevenson, R.H.

    1981-09-01

    The DWPF will immobilize highly radioactive defense wastes for storage on site until shipment to an approved federal repository for radioactive wastes. This document assesses the socioeconomic impacts of constructing and operating the proposed facility and presents the assessment methodology. Because various schedules and various ways of staging the construction of the DWPF are considered and because in some of these instances a large nearby construction project (the Vogtle Nuclear Power Station) may influence the socioeconomic impacts, four scenarios involving different facility options and schedules are assessed. In general, the impacts were found not to be large. In the scenario where the socioeconomic effects were the greatest, it was found that there are likely to be some impacts on schools in Barnwell County as well as a shortage of mobile homes in that county. Aiken, Allendale, and Bamberg counties are also likely to experience slight-to-moderate housing shortages. Minor impacts are anticipated for fire and police services, roads, traffic, and land use. There will be noticeable economic impact from the project. Other scenarios had fewer socioeconomic impacts.

  9. Impacts of global, regional, and sectoral black carbon emission reductions on surface air quality and human mortality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anenberg, S. C.; Talgo, K.; Arunachalam, S.; Dolwick, P.; Jang, C.; West, J. J.

    2011-07-01

    As a component of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), black carbon (BC) is associated with premature human mortality. BC also affects climate by absorbing solar radiation and reducing planetary albedo. Several studies have examined the climate impacts of BC emissions, but the associated health impacts have been studied less extensively. Here, we examine the surface PM2.5 and premature mortality impacts of halving anthropogenic BC emissions globally and individually from eight world regions and three major economic sectors. We use a global chemical transport model, MOZART-4, to simulate PM2.5 concentrations and a health impact function to calculate premature cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths. We estimate that halving global anthropogenic BC emissions reduces outdoor population-weighted average PM2.5 by 542 ng m-3 (1.8 %) and avoids 157 000 (95 % confidence interval, 120 000-194 000) annual premature deaths globally, with the vast majority occurring within the source region. Most of these avoided deaths can be achieved by halving emissions in East Asia (China; 54 %), followed by South Asia (India; 31 %), however South Asian emissions have 50 % greater mortality impacts per unit BC emitted than East Asian emissions. Globally, halving residential, industrial, and transportation emissions contributes 47 %, 35 %, and 15 % to the avoided deaths from halving all anthropogenic BC emissions. These contributions are 1.2, 1.2, and 0.6 times each sector's portion of global BC emissions, owing to the degree of co-location with population globally. We find that reducing BC emissions increases regional SO4 concentrations by up to 28 % of the magnitude of the regional BC concentration reductions, due to reduced absorption of radiation that drives photochemistry. Impacts of residential BC emissions are likely underestimated since indoor PM2.5 exposure is excluded. We estimate ∼8 times more avoided deaths when BC and organic carbon (OC) emissions are halved together, suggesting

  10. Predicted detection rates of regional-scale meteorite impacts on Mars with the InSight short-period seismometer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teanby, N. A.

    2015-08-01

    In 2016 NASA will launch the InSight discovery-class mission, which aims to study the detailed internal structure of Mars for the first time. Short- and long-period seismometers form a major component of InSight's payload and have the potential to detect seismic waves generated by meteorite impacts. Large globally detectable impact events producing craters with diameters of ∼ 100 m have been investigated previously and are likely to be rare (Teanby, N.A., Wookey, J. [2011]. Phys. Earth Planet. Int. 186, 70-80), but smaller impacts producing craters in the 0.5-20 m range are more numerous and potentially occur sufficiently often to be detectable on regional scales (≲1000 km). At these distances, seismic waves will have significant high frequency content and will be suited to detection with InSight's short-period seismometer SEIS-SP. In this paper I estimate the current martian crater production function from observations of new craters (Malin, M.C. et al. [2006]. Science 314, 1573-1577; Daubar, I.J. et al. [2013]. Icarus 225, 506-516), model results (Williams, J.P., Pathare, A.V., Aharonson, O. [2014]. Icarus 235, 23-36), and standard isochrons (Hartmann, W.K. [2005]. Icarus 174, 294-320). These impact rates are combined with an empirical relation between impact energy, source-receiver distance, and peak seismogram amplitude, derived from a compilation of seismic recordings of terrestrial and lunar impacts, chemical explosions, and nuclear tests. The resulting peak seismogram amplitude scaling law contains significant uncertainty, but can be used to predict impact detection rates. I estimate that for a short-period instrument, with a noise spectral density of 10-8 ms-2 Hz-1/2 in the 1-16 Hz frequency band, approximately 0.1-30 regional impacts per year should be detectable with a nominal value of 1-3 impacts per year. Therefore, small regional impacts are likely to be a viable source of seismic energy for probing Mars' crustal and upper mantle structure. This is

  11. Monitoring of copper, arsenic and antimony levels in agricultural soils impacted and non-impacted by mining activities, from three regions in Chile.

    PubMed

    De Gregori, Ida; Fuentes, Edwar; Rojas, Mariela; Pinochet, Hugo; Potin-Gautier, Martine

    2003-04-01

    This paper reports a comparative study of the concentration of three important environmental elements that are often found together in mineral deposits and then associated with mining activities; copper, arsenic and antimony. These elements were determined in 26 different agricultural soils from regions I, II and V in Chile, zones where the most important and biggest copper industries of this country are located. As background levels of these elements in soils have not been well established, in this study, both, impacted and non-impacted agricultural soils from different regions were considered. The relationships between the concentrations of these elements in soils were also examined. The concentration ranges for copper, arsenic and antimony were 11-530; 2.7-202 and 0.42-11 mg kg(-1) respectively. The copper concentrations in non-polluted soils from the north and central zone of Chile were similar. However, three sites from the north region have copper concentration as higher as 100 mg kg(-1), values that exceed the critical concentration for copper in soils. The concentration of arsenic and antimony in the north soils were higher than in non-impacted ones and, in the case of arsenic, greatly exceeded the world average concentration reported for this element in soils. The highest arsenic and antimony concentrations were found in Calama and Quillagua soils, two different sites in the Loa valley. The arsenic/antimony concentration ratio was higher in Quillagua soil. The high concentrations of three elements determined in impacted soils from region V (Puchuncaví and Catemu valleys) clearly shows the impact produced in this zone by the industrial and mining activities developed in their proximities. At Puchuncaví valley a clear decrease was observed in copper, arsenic and antimony concentrations in soils on the function of the distance from the industrial complex "Las Ventanas", and all concentrations exceeded the reported critical values for this matrix. Instead at

  12. Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles; Ponnusamy, Paramasivam; Rasnayaka, Herath; Singh, Harbir

    2015-01-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work

  13. Using Different Spatial Scales of Climate Data for Regional Climate Impact Assessment: Effect on Crop Modeling Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Trabucco, A.; Montesarchio, M.; Mercogliano, P.; Spano, D.

    2015-12-01

    The high vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate conditions causes serious concern regarding climate change impacts on crop development and production, particularly in vulnerable areas like the Mediterranean Basin. Crop simulation models are the most common tools applied for the assessment of such impacts on crop development and yields, both at local and regional scales. However, the use of these models in regional impact studies requires spatial input data for weather, soil, management, etc, whose resolution could affect simulation results. Indeed, the uncertainty in projecting climate change impacts on crop phenology and yield at the regional scale is affected not only by the uncertainty related to climate models and scenarios, but also by the downscaling methods and the resolution of climate data. The aim of this study was the evaluation of the effects of spatial resolutions of climate projections in estimating maturity date and grain yield for different varieties of durum wheat, common wheat and maize in Italy. The simulations were carried out using the CSM-CERES-Wheat and CSM-CERES-Maize crop models included in the DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, parameterized and evaluated in different experimental sites located in Italy. Dynamically downscaled climate data at different resolutions and different RCP scenarios were used as input in the crop models. A spatial platform, DSSAT-CSM based, developed in R programming language was applied to perform the simulation of maturity date and grain yield for durum wheat, common wheat and maize in each grid cell. Results, analyzed at the national and regional level, will be discussed.

  14. East Asian Studies of Tropospheric Aerosols and their Impact on Regional Climate (EAST-AIRC): An Overview

    SciTech Connect

    Li, Zhanqing; Li, C.; Chen, H.; Tsay, S. C.; Holben, B. N.; Huang, J.; Li, B.; Maring, H.; Qian, Yun; Shi, Guangyu; Xia, X.; Yin, Y.; Zheng, Y.; Zhuang, G.

    2011-02-01

    As the most populated region of the world, Asia is a major source of aerosols with potential large impact over vast downstream areas. Papers published in this special section describe the variety of aerosols observed in China and their effects and interactions with the regional climate as part of the East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols and Impact on Regional Climate (EAST-AIRC). The majority of the papers are based on analyses of observations made under three field projects, namely, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Mobile Facility mission in China (AMF10 China), the East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols: an International Regional Experiment (EAST-AIRE), and the Atmospheric Aerosols of China and their Climate Effects (AACCE). The former two are US-China collaborative projects and the latter is a part of the China’s National Basic Research program (or often referred to as “973 project”). Routine meteorological data of China are also employed in some studies. The wealth of general and specialized measurements lead to extensive and close-up investigations of the optical, physical and chemical properties of anthropogenic, natural, and mixed aerosols; their sources, formation and transport mechanisms; horizontal, vertical and temporal variations; direct and indirect effects and interactions with the East Asian monsoon system. Particular efforts are made to advance our understanding of the mixing and interaction between dust and anthropogenic pollutants during transport. Several modeling studies were carried out to simulate aerosol impact on radiation budget, temperature, precipitation, wind and atmospheric circulation, fog, etc. In addition, impacts of the Asian monsoon system on aerosol loading are also simulated.

  15. Long-term regional shifts in plant community composition are largely explained by local deer impact experiments.

    PubMed

    Frerker, Katie; Sabo, Autumn; Waller, Donald

    2014-01-01

    The fact that herbivores and predators exert top-down effects to alter community composition and dynamics at lower trophic levels is no longer controversial, yet we still lack evidence of the full nature, extent, and longer-term effects of these impacts. Here, we use results from a set of replicated experiments on the local impacts of white-tailed deer to evaluate the extent to which such impacts could account for half-century shifts in forest plant communities across the upper Midwest, USA. We measured species' responses to deer at four sites using 10-20 year-old deer exclosures. Among common species, eight were more abundant outside the exclosures, seven were commoner inside, and 16 had similar abundances in- and outside. Deer herbivory greatly increased the abundance of ferns and graminoids and doubled the abundance of exotic plants. In contrast, deer greatly reduced tree regeneration, shrub cover (100-200 fold in two species), plant height, plant reproduction, and the abundance of forbs. None of 36 focal species increased in reproduction or grew taller in the presence of deer, contrary to expectations. We compared these results to data on 50-year regional shifts in species abundances across 62 sites. The effects of herbivory by white-tailed deer accurately account for many of the long-term regional shifts observed in species' abundances (R2 = 0.41). These results support the conjecture that deer impacts have driven many of the regional shifts in forest understory cover and composition observed in recent decades. Our ability to link results from shorter-term, local experiments to regional long-term studies of ecological change strengthens the inferences we can draw from both approaches.

  16. Evaluating the Impact of the Department of Defense Regional Centers for Security Studies

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-01-01

    which they do so. As DoD looks to identify inefficiencies and accommodate reduced budget authority, the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the...66 Managing Potential Budget Cuts...Impact of Budget Cuts on Center Missions

  17. Modeling prescribed fire impacts on local to regional air quality and potential climate effects

    EPA Science Inventory

    Biomass burning, including wildfires and prescribed burns, are of increasing concern due to the potential impacts on ambient air quality. The direct and indirect radiative forcings associated the particulate matter from biomass burning are also raising questions regarding the pot...

  18. Impact of natural gas development in the Marcellus and Utica shales on regional ozone and fine particulate matter levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roohani, Yusuf H.; Roy, Anirban A.; Heo, Jinhyok; Robinson, Allen L.; Adams, Peter J.

    2017-04-01

    The Marcellus and Utica shale formations have recently been the focus of intense natural gas development and production, increasing regional air pollutant emissions. Here we examine the effects of these emissions on regional ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels using the chemical transport model, CAMx, and estimate the public health costs with BenMAP. Simulations were performed for three emissions scenarios for the year 2020 that span a range potential development storylines. In areas with the most gas development, the 'Medium Emissions' scenario, which corresponds to an intermediate level of development and widespread adoption of new equipment with lower emissions, is predicted to increase 8-hourly ozone design values by up to 2.5 ppbv and average annual PM2.5 concentrations by as much as 0.27 μg/m3. These impacts could range from as much as a factor of two higher to a factor of three lower depending on the level of development and the adoption of emission controls. Smaller impacts (e.g. 0.1-0.5 ppbv of ozone, depending on the emissions scenario) are predicted for non-attainment areas located downwind of the Marcellus region such as New York City, Philadelphia and Washington, DC. Premature deaths for the 'Medium Emissions' scenario are predicted to increase by 200-460 annually. The health impacts as well as the changes in ozone and PM2.5 were all driven primarily by NOx emissions.

  19. Offshore wind farms in the southwestern Baltic Sea: A model study of regional impacts on oxygen conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janßen, Holger; Schröder, Toni; Zettler, Michael L.; Pollehne, Falk

    2015-01-01

    Offshore wind farm piles are secondary hard substrate and hence an attractive colonization surface for many species. Especially in marine areas dominated by soft sediments, wind farms may lead to a significant increase in biomass by enlarging habitats from benthos layers into the pelagic column. A concomitant effect is the increase in oxygen consumption through respiration of living biomass and especially through degradation of dead biomass, mainly Mytilus edulis. This leads to impacts on the regional oxygen budget, and local anoxia in the direct vicinity of wind farm piles has been documented in scientific literature. The present study investigates the regional impact of multiple wind farms on oxygen concentration levels and on the appearance of hypoxia. A five-year data sampling with a steel cylinder and fouling plates delivered data for a 3D ecosystem model. The results show that wind farms do not lead to a significant decrease in oxygen on the mesoscale level. But additional anoxia may occur locally, which may lead to the release of hydrogen sulfide on microscale level and potential subsequent regional impacts.

  20. Influence of season on birth weight and weaning age of indigenous Balami and imported Sudan Desert sheep in the Sahel region of Northeastern Nigeria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alaku, O.

    1985-06-01

    Data on birth weight and age at weaning for 1,092 (609 indigenous Balami and 483 imported Sudan Desert) sheep born from 1975 to 1979 in a Government farm near Maiduguri were analysed to study the influence of season on birth weight and age at weaning in sheep reared in the sahel region of Northeastern Nigeria. The suitability of the Sudan Desert for replacing or upgrading the indigenous Balami was considered. Season, breed, sex and type of birth significantly (P<0.001) influenced birth weight, age at weaning and the average daily gain from birth to weaning of lambs. Heaviest lambs were born during the rainy season-June August. Birth weight was lowest during the dry hot season. Balami lambs were heavier at birth and were weaned earlier with greater average daily gain than the Sudan Desert (P<0.001). Ram lambs were heavier at birth and had greater daily gain than the ewes (P<0.001). Also single-born lambs were heavier at birth and were weaned earlier (P<0.001) than twins. Twining rate in Balami was almost double that in the Sudanese. Survival tended to be greater in Sudanese than in Balami. Birth, twining and survival rates were highest for the dry cold season-born lambs. The dry cold season seems the best lambing season here. In all, the local Balami proved far superior in almost all traits considered. The use of the Sudan Desert here is definitely not econmically justifiable or rational.

  1. Impacts of global, regional, and sectoral black carbon emission reductions on surface air quality and human mortality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anenberg, S. C.; Talgo, K.; Arunachalam, S.; Dolwick, P.; Jang, C.; West, J. J.

    2011-04-01

    As a component of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), black carbon (BC) is associated with premature human mortality. BC also affects climate by absorbing solar radiation and reducing planetary albedo. Several studies have examined the climate impacts of BC emissions, but the associated health impacts have been studied less extensively. Here, we examine the surface PM2.5 and premature mortality impacts of halving anthropogenic BC emissions globally, from eight world regions, and from three major economic sectors. We use a global chemical transport model, MOZART-4, to simulate PM2.5 concentrations and a health impact function to calculate premature cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths. We estimate that halving global anthropogenic BC emissions reduces outdoor population-weighted average PM2.5 by 542 ng m-3 (1.8%) and avoids 157 000 (95% confidence interval, 120 000-194 000) annual premature deaths globally, with the vast majority occurring within the source region. While most of these avoided deaths can be achieved by halving East Asian emissions (54%), followed by South Asian emissions (31%), South Asian emissions have 50% greater mortality impacts per unit BC emitted than East Asian emissions. Globally, the contribution of residential, industrial, and transportation BC emissions to PM2.5-related mortality is 1.3, 1.2, and 0.6 times each sector's contribution to anthropogenic BC emissions, owing to the degree of co-location with population. Impacts of residential BC emissions are underestimated since indoor PM2.5 exposure is excluded. We estimate ~8 times more avoided deaths when BC and organic carbon (OC) emissions are halved together, suggesting that these results greatly underestimate the full air pollution-related mortality benefits of BC mitigation strategies which generally decrease both BC and OC. Confidence in our results would be strengthened by reducing uncertainties in emissions, model parameterization of aerosol processes, grid resolution, and PM2

  2. Evaluating the relative impact of climate and economic changes on forest and agricultural ecosystem services in mountain regions.

    PubMed

    Briner, Simon; Elkin, Ché; Huber, Robert

    2013-11-15

    Provisioning of ecosystem services (ES) in mountainous regions is predicted to be influenced by i) the direct biophysical impacts of climate change, ii) climate mediated land use change, and iii) socioeconomic driven changes in land use. The relative importance and the spatial distribution of these factors on forest and agricultural derived ES, however, is unclear, making the implementation of ES management schemes difficult. Using an integrated economic-ecological modeling framework, we evaluated the impact of these driving forces on the provision of forest and agricultural ES in a mountain region of southern Switzerland. Results imply that forest ES will be strongly influenced by the direct impact of climate change, but that changes in land use will have a comparatively small impact. The simulation of direct impacts of climate change affects forest ES at all elevations, while land use changes can only be found at high elevations. In contrast, changes to agricultural ES were found to be primarily due to shifts in economic conditions that alter land use and land management. The direct influence of climate change on agriculture is only predicted to be substantial at high elevations, while socioeconomic driven shifts in land use are projected to affect agricultural ES at all elevations. Our simulation results suggest that policy schemes designed to mitigate the negative impact of climate change on forests should focus on suitable adaptive management plans, accelerating adaptation processes for currently forested areas. To maintain provision of agricultural ES policy needs to focus on economic conditions rather than on supporting adaptation to new climate.

  3. Regional economic impacts of natural hazards - the case of the 2005 Alpine flood event in Tyrol (Austria)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pfurtscheller, C.

    2014-02-01

    Natural hazards have substantial impacts on economies on all scales. While the measurement of direct effects seems manageable, less is known about the dimensions of economic effects, especially on local and regional scales. The lack of standardized terminology, empirical data and methods currently hampers profound decision support. In our study of the 2005 flood event in the Federal State of Tyrol (Austria), which triggered about 264 million Euros in direct losses, we surveyed companies from all sectors of the economy to identify the drivers of economic effects. The main aim of the study was to assess the regional economic impacts on the gross regional product by the 2005 floods without macro-economic modelling techniques using bottom-up data. Using basic quantitative and qualitative methods, we established and analysed a data pool of questionnaire and interview results as well as direct loss data. Based on this empirical evidence, we estimated the decline in gross regional product in the study area at NUTS-3 level. We observed that disrupted traffic networks, for instance, had very negative effects on the regional economy. In addition, we identified economic winners of severe hazard impacts and estimated the amount of increasing economic flows (economic stimuli), based on compensation payments. Finally, the net effect can be estimated balancing the negative and positive effects of the flood event. The methods and results of this study can help to improve ex post loss estimations, and with it, ex ante methods for the cost efficiency of risk reduction measures, e.g. cost-benefit analysis. However, much effort is needed to improve the data basis on economic effects measured as a change in economic flows.

  4. Assessing the Impact of Higher Education on Regional Development: Using a Realist Approach for Policy Enhancement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Higher Education Management and Policy, 2005

    2005-01-01

    Higher Education is widely seen as a crucial ingredient in the regional economic development mix, and as fundamental to the development of the knowledge economy (Barclays, 2002). Indeed the Higher Education Funding Council for England has issued broad guidelines for benchmarking good practice in assessing regional development contribution of a…

  5. [Impact and state of the art of regional healthcare planning and management guidelines in a local health authority of the Lazio region (Italy)].

    PubMed

    Priori, Maria Rosaria; Barbato, Angelo

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of health care planning and management guidelines, elaborated by the Lazio regional healthcare authority, on the organizational structure and operational processes of local health authorities and, more specifically, of the Roma C local health authority. The guidelines are made up of three volumes and mainly describe an operational model, rather than being a set of standard references aimed at standardizing the quality of information low systems in local healthcare authorities. The guidelines are essentially a didactic text, and were elaborated by a consulting firm, Engineering Management Consulting, on behalf of the Lazio regional authority. In the first section, the main concepts are defined, while in subsequent sections, detailed models regarding the specific subject matter are described. Although the guidelines represent a useful tool in the process of converting local health authorities of the Lazio region into "business" organizations, so far they have been of use only in the first phase of assessment of different organizational models for healthcare planning and management. There is still a long way ahead towards defining standard procedures and references for describing activities and costs. This is what should hopefully be achieved briefly and which will necessarily require the introduction of a data warehouse and business intelligence software that will allow monitoring of activities and making short term predictions through the use balanced scorecards and data mining.

  6. Assessing Regional-Scale Impacts of Short Rotation Coppices on Ecosystem Services by Modeling Land-Use Decisions

    PubMed Central

    Schulze, Jule; Frank, Karin; Priess, Joerg A.; Meyer, Markus A.

    2016-01-01

    Meeting the world’s growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape

  7. Climate change impact assessment in Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part II: a spatially resolved regional risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Rizzi, J; Zabeo, A; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impact assessment on water resources has received high international attention over the last two decades, due to the observed global warming and its consequences at the global to local scale. In particular, climate-related risks for groundwater and related ecosystems pose a great concern to scientists and water authorities involved in the protection of these valuable resources. The close link of global warming with water cycle alterations encourages research to deepen current knowledge on relationships between climate trends and status of water systems, and to develop predictive tools for their sustainable management, copying with key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groundwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed in order to identify impacts from climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems (e.g. surface waters, agricultural areas, natural environments) and to rank areas and receptors at risk in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). Based on an integrated analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks linked to climate change at the regional scale, a RRA framework complying with the Sources-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) approach was defined. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters (i.e. groundwater level variations, changes in nitrate infiltration processes, changes in water availability for irrigation) were selected and analyzed through hazard scenario, exposure, susceptibility and risk assessment. The RRA methodology used hazard scenarios constructed through global and high resolution model simulations for the 2071-2100 period, according to IPCC A1B emission scenario in order to produce useful indications for future risk prioritization and to support the addressing of adaptation measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR) techniques. Relevant

  8. Health impact assessment in CEE region: case of the former Czechoslovakia

    SciTech Connect

    Gulis, Gabriel

    2004-02-01

    This paper is based on the author's personnel experience in the Slovak Republic and on information gathered during a health impact assessment (HIA) workshop with participants from Estonia, Bulgaria, Romania and Slovenia. There is a long tradition of health impact assessment in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. In the former Czechoslovakia, legislation made in 1966, although it did not explicitly mention HIA, provided a legal basis and made the public hygiene service responsible for assessment of health impacts. However, political structures, prevalent values, reliance on limit-based comparisons, and lack of adequate training meant that HIA had little influence on decision making. Political changes since 1990 are allowing development of HIA. This experience highlights the importance of values and methods in undertaking HIA.

  9. Assessing the long term impact of power plant emissions on regional air pollution using extensive monitoring data.

    PubMed

    Yuval; Broday, David M

    2009-02-01

    In spite of the recent increasing interest in energy production from renewable sources, polluting hydrocarbon-fueled power plants will continue to provide most of the electricity to the world's population in the coming decades. This work studies the long term impact on the regional ambient air which can be attributable to three plants with different power outputs, fuel types, and stack heights. The study is carried out in an area with relatively flat topography and typical coastal meteorology. A dense air pollution monitoring network, operating for many years, makes this area a real life laboratory for studying the pollution routes, the impact of the sources at different directions and distances, and the effects of transition to cleaner fuel. The direct impact of each of the two large power plants on the ambient SO2 levels could be clearly detected in most of the monitoring stations at distances up to 40 km away. Interestingly, a relatively large impact can also be attributed to the indirect effect of emissions that are recirculated back to the region with the land breeze. The transition from using fuel oil to natural gas in one of the large power plants resulted in a dramatic reduction in the mean SO2 levels in all of the monitoring stations. The contribution of the industrial emissions to the ambient NO2 levels seems to be very modest relative to that from traffic. An analysis of the NO, NO2 and O3 records suggests that the highest mean NO2 concentrations, and a large proportion of the total NO2 encountered in the study area, are probably due to recirculated NOx emitted by traffic in a densely populated region north of it.

  10. CLIMATE IMPACTS ON REGIONAL AIR QUALITY (CIRAQ): MODELING OZONE SENSITIVITIES TO FUTURE CLIMATE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Using global and regional modeling tools, predictions of future climate and ozone concentrations are developed for the continental United States. Results suggest that future changes in climate will contribute to an increase in ozone concentrations; however, the future changes in...

  11. China’s Air Defense Identification Zone: Concept, Issues at Stake and Regional Impact

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-12-23

    By Alex Calvo Introduction. News in the Indian-Pacific Ocean Region have been dominated in the past couple of weeks by Beijing’s 23 November...News in the Indian-Pacific Ocean Region have been dominated in the past couple of weeks by Beijing’s 23 November announcement of an Air Defense...and “This is 86 Nicholas Szechenyi, Victor Cha, Bonnie S. Glaser , Michael J. Green, and

  12. Impact of the 1997-1998 El-Nino of Regional Hydrology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lakshmi, Venkataraman; Susskind, Joel

    1998-01-01

    The 1997-1998 El-Nino brought with it a range of severe local-regional hydrological phenomena. Record high temperatures and extremely dry soil conditions in Texas is an example of this regional effect. The El-Nino and La-Nina change the continental weather patterns considerably. However, connections between continental weather anomalies and regional or local anomalies have not been established to a high degree of confidence. There are several unique features of the recent El-Nino and La-Nina. Due to the recognition of the present El-Nino well in advance, there have been several coupled model studies on global and regional scales. Secondly, there is a near real-time monitoring of the situation using data from satellite sensors, namely, SeaWIFS, TOVS, AVHRR and GOES. Both observations and modeling characterize the large scale features of this El-Nino fairly well. However the connection to the local and regional hydrological phenomenon still needs to be made. This paper will use satellite observations and analysis data to establish a relation between local hydrology and large scale weather patterns. This will be the first step in using satellite data to perform regional hydrological simulations of surface temperature and soil moisture.

  13. Drought and Snow: Analysis of Drivers, Processes and Impacts of Streamflow Droughts in Snow-Dominated Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Loon, A.; Laaha, G.; Van Lanen, H.; Parajka, J.; Fleig, A. K.; Ploum, S.

    2015-12-01

    Around the world, drought events with severe socio-economic impacts seem to have a link with winter snowpack. That is the case for the current California drought, but analysing historical archives and drought impact databases for the US and Europe we found many impacts that can be attributed to snowpack anomalies. Agriculture and electricity production (hydropower) were found to be the sectors that are most affected by drought related to snow. In this study, we investigated the processes underlying hydrological drought in snow-dominated regions. We found that drought drivers are different in different regions. In Norway, more than 90% of spring streamflow droughts were preceded by below-average winter precipitation, while both winter air temperature and spring weather were indifferent. In Austria, however, spring streamflow droughts could only be explained by a combination of factors. For most events, winter and spring air temperatures were above average (70% and 65% of events, respectively), and winter and spring precipitation was below average (75% and 80%). Because snow storage results from complex interactions between precipitation and temperature and these variables vary strongly with altitude, snow-related drought drivers have a large spatial variability. The weather input is subsequently modified by land properties. Multiple linear regression between drought severity variables and a large number of catchment characteristics for 44 catchments in Austria showed that storage influences both drought duration and deficit volume. The seasonal storage of water in snow and glaciers was found to be a statistically important variable explaining streamflow drought deficit. Our drought impact analysis in Europe also showed that 40% of the selected drought impacts was caused by a combination of snow-related and other drought types. For example, the combination of a winter drought with a preceding or subsequent summer drought was reported to have a large effect on

  14. Drought and Snow: Analysis of Drivers, Processes and Impacts of Streamflow Droughts in Snow-Dominated Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Loon, Anne; Laaha, Gregor; Van Lanen, Henny; Parajka, Juraj; Fleig, Anne; Ploum, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    Around the world, drought events with severe socio-economic impacts seem to have a link with winter snowpack. That is the case for the current California drought, but analysing historical archives and drought impact databases for the US and Europe we found many impacts that can be attributed to snowpack anomalies. Agriculture and electricity production (hydropower) were found to be the sectors that are most affected by drought related to snow. In this study, we investigated the processes underlying hydrological drought in snow-dominated regions. We found that drought drivers are different in different regions. In Norway, more than 90% of spring streamflow droughts were preceded by below-average winter precipitation, while both winter air temperature and spring weather were indifferent. In Austria, however, spring streamflow droughts could only be explained by a combination of factors. For most events, winter and spring air temperatures were above average (70% and 65% of events, respectively), and winter and spring precipitation was below average (75% and 80%). Because snow storage results from complex interactions between precipitation and temperature and these variables vary strongly with altitude, snow-related drought drivers have a large spatial variability. The weather input is subsequently modified by land properties. Multiple linear regression between drought severity variables and a large number of catchment characteristics for 44 catchments in Austria showed that storage influences both drought duration and deficit volume. The seasonal storage of water in snow and glaciers was found to be a statistically important variable explaining streamflow drought deficit. Our drought impact analysis in Europe also showed that 40% of the selected drought impacts was caused by a combination of snow-related and other drought types. For example, the combination of a winter drought with a preceding or subsequent summer drought was reported to have a large effect on

  15. Modelling the impact of megacities on local, regional and global tropospheric ozone and the deposition of nitrogen species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stock, Z. S.; Russo, M. R.; Butler, T. M.; Archibald, A. T.; Lawrence, M. G.; Telford, P. J.; Abraham, N. L.; Pyle, J. A.

    2013-12-01

    We examine the effects of ozone precursor emissions from megacities on present-day air quality using the global chemistry-climate model UM-UKCA (UK Met Office Unified Model coupled to the UK Chemistry and Aerosols model). The sensitivity of megacity and regional ozone to local emissions, both from within the megacity and from surrounding regions, is important for determining air quality across many scales, which in turn is key for reducing human exposure to high levels of pollutants. We use two methods, perturbation and tagging, to quantify the impact of megacity emissions on global ozone. We also completely redistribute the anthropogenic emissions from megacities, to compare changes in local air quality going from centralised, densely populated megacities to decentralised, lower density urban areas. Focus is placed not only on how changes to megacity emissions affect regional and global NOx and O3, but also on changes to NOy deposition and to local chemical environments which are perturbed by the emission changes. The perturbation and tagging methods show broadly similar megacity impacts on total ozone, with the perturbation method underestimating the contribution partially because it perturbs the background chemical environment. The total redistribution of megacity emissions locally shifts the chemical environment towards more NOx-limited conditions in the megacities, which is more conducive to ozone production, and monthly mean surface ozone is found to increase up to 30% in megacities, depending on latitude and season. However, the displacement of emissions has little effect on the global annual ozone burden (0.12% change). Globally, megacity emissions are shown to contribute ~3% of total NOy deposition. The changes in O3, NOx and NOy deposition described here are useful for quantifying megacity impacts and for understanding the sensitivity of megacity regions to local emissions. The small global effects of the 100% redistribution carried out in this study

  16. Developing a climatological / hydrological baseline for climate change impact assessment in a remote mountain region - an example from Peru

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salzmann, N.; Huggel, C.; Calanca, P.; Diaz, A.; Jonas, T.; Konzelmann, T.; Lagos, P.; Rohrer, M.; Silverio, W.; Zappa, M.

    2009-04-01

    Changes in the availability of fresh water caused by climatic changes will become a major issue in the coming years and decades. In this context, regions presently depending on water from retreating mountain glaciers are particularly vulnerable. In many parts of the Andes for example, people already suffer from the impacts of reduced glacier run off. Therefore, the development and implementation of adequate adaptation measures is an urgent need. To better understand the impact of climate change on water resources in the Andean region, a new research program (PACC - Programa de Adaptación al Cambio Climático en el Perú) between Peru and Switzerland has recently been launched by SDC (Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation). As a first step, a scientific baseline relative to climatology, hydrology, agriculture and natural disasters will be developed on a regional scale for the Departments of Cusco and Apurimac in close cooperation with partners from Universities and governmental institutions as well as NGOs in Peru. A reliable data baseline is a must for the development of adaptation measures that can effectively cope with the risks induced by climate change. The realization of this task in remote mountain regions, where observational data are generally sparse, however, is challenging. Temporal and spatial gaps must be filled using indirect methods such as re-analyses, remote sensing and interpolation techniques. For future scenarios, the use of climate model output along with statistical and dynamical downscaling is indicated. This contribution will present and discuss approaches and possible concepts to tackle the challenges in a Peruvian context. In addition, first experiences will be reported particularly on cross-disciplinary issues that naturally emerge from the integrative perspective needed in climate change impact assessments and the development of adaptation strategies.

  17. The Impact of Selective Logging on the Regional Carbon Budget at the Tapajos National Forest: a Modeling Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, M.; Asner, G. P.; Keller, M.; Knapp, D.

    2005-12-01

    Selective logging has been identified as an important form of land use in the Brazilian Amazon region based on studies in Large-scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment (LBA) Phase II (Nepstad et al., 1999; Asner et al., 2004). The ground and canopy damage caused by selective logging could have significant ecological, biogeochemical and micrometeorological consequences. Logging creates canopy gaps that affect photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) interception, latent and sensible heat fluxes, water stress and plant productivity. Also, it creates an increased amount of coarse woody debris (CWD), dead leaves and roots, which enlarge the carbon pools for respiration and fire. Furthermore, the biogeochemical processes in the tropical forest including the nutrient cycles and wildlife would also be altered. Unfortunately, previous studies on impacts of selective logging in that region are generally limited in space and/or time. In this study, a high-resolution (30 m by 30 m) version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model is applied to quantify the impact of selective logging on the regional carbon budget at the Tapajos National Forest. A unique aspect of this study is to take advantage of recent progress in characterizing explicitly the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest canopy gaps and CWD generation based upon field and remote sensing measurements (Asner et al., 2005; Keller et al., 2004). An undisturbed forest scenario and a logging scenario will be considered. The undisturbed forest scenario corresponds to the condition prior to logging and will serve as a baseline simulation for comparison. By assimilating satellite-derived vegetation indices, gap fractions, and CWD estimates before and after logging, we expect to simulate the spatial changes of carbon storage and carbon release caused by logging over time. Measurements from the km 83 flux tower located at the Tapajos National Forest will be used to constrain the model. This study constitutes our

  18. Modelling the impact of megacities on local, regional and global tropospheric ozone and the deposition of nitrogen species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stock, Z. S.; Russo, M. R.; Butler, T. M.; Archibald, A. T.; Lawrence, M. G.; Telford, P. J.; Abraham, N. L.; Pyle, J. A.

    2013-07-01

    We examine the effects of ozone precursor emissions from megacities on present-day air quality using the global chemistry-climate model UM-UKCA. The sensitivity of megacity and regional ozone to local emissions, both from within the megacity and from surrounding regions, is important for determining air quality across many scales, which in turn is key for reducing human exposure to high levels of pollutants. We use two methods, perturbation and tagging, to quantify the impact of megacity emissions on global ozone. We also completely redistribute the anthropogenic emissions from megacities, to compare changes in local air quality going from centralised, densely populated megacities to decentralised, lower density urban areas. Focus is placed not only on how changes to megacity emissions affect regional and global NOx and O3, but also on changes to NOy deposition and to local chemical environments which are perturbed by the emission changes. The perturbation and tagging methods show broadly similar megacity impacts on total ozone, with the perturbation method underestimating the contribution partially because it perturbs the background chemical environment. The total redistribution of megacity emissions locally shifts the chemical environment towards more NOx-limited conditions in the megacities, which is more conducive to ozone production, and monthly mean surface ozone is found to increase up to 30% in megacities, depending on latitude and season. However, the displacement of emissions has little effect on the global annual ozone burden at the surface (0.12% change). Globally, megacity emissions are shown to increase total NOy deposition by ~3%. The changes in O3, NOx and NOy deposition described here are useful for quantifying megacity impacts and for understanding the sensitivity of megacity regions to local emissions. The small global effects of the 100% redistribution carried out in this study suggest that the distribution of emissions on the local scale is

  19. Impact of temperatures to Hessian Fly resistance of selected wheat cultivars in the Great Plains Region

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Changes in temperature can result in fundamental changes in plant physiology. This study investigated the impact of different temperatures from 14 to 26 °C on the resistance or susceptibility to the Hessian fly, Mayetiola destructor, of selected wheat cultivars that are either currently popular in ...

  20. REGIONAL ASSESSMENT OF LAND USE IMPACTS ON STREAM CHANNEL HABITAT IN THE MIDDLE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN

    EPA Science Inventory

    Many human land uses and land cover modifications (e.g., logging, grazing, roads) tend to increase erosion, leading to an increase in fine sediment supplied to streams and potentially degrading aquatic habitat for benthic organisms. This study evaluated potential human impacts o...

  1. A Topographic Image Map of the Sabrina Valles Region Including Information on Large Martian Impact Craters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gehrke, S.; Köhring, R.; Barlow, N. G.; Gwinner, K.; Scholten, F.; Lehmann, H.; Albertz, J.

    2007-03-01

    The Catalog of Large Martian Impact Craters provides detailed information on 42,283 craters >5 km; it is planned to be integrated in the Topographic Image Map Mars 1:200,000 series. Such an update is shown in a special target map, based on HRSC data.

  2. The Impact of New Area Vocational Schools on the Appalachian Region.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sanders, George; Dennis, William A.

    This brief evaluation of area vocational schools and programs and their impact on students and communities of Appalachia notes: (1) 20 to 30 percent of Appalachian high school students are being reached by current programs, (2) Enrollment in individual programs has increased from 50 to several hundred percent, (3) The dropout rate for most schools…

  3. Creating a Model for High Impact Practices at a Large, Regional, Comprehensive University: A Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McMahan, Shari

    2008-01-01

    Student engagement in High Impact Practices (HIPs) has been gaining the attention of higher education leaders and researchers. When students are actively engaged in the learning process they report greater gains in learning and personal development. Students involved in HIPs show better retention, higher GPA and succeed in graduating college in a…

  4. Assessing planetary and regional nitrogen boundaries related to food security and adverse environmental impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Vries, Wim; Kros, Hans; Kroeze, Carolien; Seitzinger, Sybil

    2014-05-01

    In this presentation, we first discuss the concept of -, governance interest in- and criticism on planetary boundaries, specifically with respect to the nitrogen (N) cycle. We then systematically evaluate the criticism and argue that planetary N boundaries need to include both the benefits and adverse impacts of reactive N (Nr) and the spatial variability of Nr impacts, in terms of shortage and surplus, being main arguments for not deriving such boundaries. Next, we present an holistic approach for an updated planetary N boundary by considering the need to: (i) avoid adverse impacts of elevated Nr emissions to water, air and soils, and (ii) feed the world population in an adequate way. The derivation of a planetary N boundary, in terms of anthropogenic fixation of di-nitrogen (N2) by growing legumes and production of N fertilizer, is illustrated by (i) identification of multiple threat N indicators and setting critical limits for them, (ii) back calculating critical N losses from critical limits for N indicators, while accounting for the spatial variability of indicators and their exceedance and (iii) back calculating critical N fixation rates from critical N losses. The derivation of the needed planetary N fixation is assessed from the global population, the recommended dietary N consumption per capita and the N use efficiency in the complete chain from N fixation to N consumption. Results of example applications show that the previously suggested planetary N boundary of 25% of the current value is too low in view of needed N fixation and also unnecessary in view of most environmental impacts. We also illustrate the impacts of changes in the N use efficiency on planetary boundaries in terms of critical N fixation rates.

  5. Impact of source region on the δ18O signal in snow: A case study from Mount Wrangell Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, Kent; Field, Robert; Benson, Carl

    2016-04-01

    The stable isotopic composition of water in ice cores is an important source of information on past climate variability. At its simplest level, the underlying assumption is that there is an empirical relationship between the normalized difference in the concentration for these stable isotopes and a specified local temperature at the ice core site. There are however non-local processes, such as a change in source region or a change in the atmospheric pathway, that can impact the stable isotope signal thereby complicating its use as a proxy for temperature. Here we investigate the importance of these non-local processes through the analysis of the synoptic-scale circulation during a snowfall event at the summit of Mount Wrangell, in south-central Alaska just to the east of the Gulf of Alaska. During this event there was, over a one-day period in which the local temperature was approximately constant, a change in δ18O that exceeded half that normally seen to occur between summer and winter in the region. As we shall show, this arose from a change in the source region, from the sub-tropical eastern Pacific to northeastern Asia for the snow that fell on Mount Wrangell during the event. The recognition that non-local processes play a role in the stable isotope record from the Gulf of Alaska region suggests that these records, in addition to a local temperature signal, also contain signals of large-scale modes of climate variability that impact the North Pacific region such as the Pacific North America teleconnection and the El-Nino Southern Oscillation.

  6. Impact of water management interventions on hydrology and ecosystem services in Garhkundar-Dabar watershed of Bundelkhand region, Central India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Ramesh; Garg, Kaushal K.; Wani, Suhas P.; Tewari, R. K.; Dhyani, S. K.

    2014-02-01

    Bundelkhand region of Central India is a hot spot of water scarcity, land degradation, poverty and poor socio-economic status. Impacts of integrated watershed development (IWD) interventions on water balance and different ecosystem services are analyzed in one of the selected watershed of 850 ha in Bundelkhand region. Improved soil, water and crop management interventions in Garhkundar-Dabar (GKD) watershed of Bundelkhand region in India enhanced ET to 64% as compared to 58% in untreated (control) watershed receiving 815 mm annual average rainfall. Reduced storm flow (21% vs. 34%) along with increased base flow (4.5% vs. 1.2%) and groundwater recharge (11% vs. 7%) of total rainfall received were recorded in treated watershed as compared to untreated control watershed. Economic Water productivity and total income increased from 2.5 to 5.0 INR m-3 and 11,500 to 27,500 INR ha-1 yr-1 after implementing integrated watershed development interventions in GKD watershed, respectively. Moreover IWD interventions helped in reducing soil loss more than 50% compared to control watershed. The results demonstrated that integrated watershed management practices addressed issues of poverty in GKD watershed. Benefit to cost ratio of project interventions was found three and pay back period within four years suggest economic feasibility to scale-up IWD interventions in Bundelkhend region. Scaling-up of integrated watershed management in drought prone rainfed areas with enabling policy and institutional support is expected to promote equity and livelihood along with strengthening various ecosystem services, however, region-specific analysis is needed to assess trade-offs for downstream areas along with onsite impact.

  7. The Impact of Region, Nitrogen Use Efficiency, and Grower Incentives on Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in Canola (Brassica napus) Production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammac, W. A.; Pan, W.; Koenig, R. T.; McCracken, V.

    2012-12-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has mandated through the second renewable fuel standard (RFS2) that biodiesel meet a minimum threshold requirement (50% reduction) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction compared to fossil diesel. This designation is determined by life cycle assessment (LCA) and carries with it potential for monetary incentives for biodiesel feedstock growers (Biomass Crop Assistance Program) and biodiesel processors (Renewable Identification Numbers). A national LCA was carried out for canola (Brassica napus) biodiesel feedstock by the EPA and it did meet the minimum threshold requirement. However, EPA's national LCA does not provide insight into regional variation in GHG mitigation. The authors propose for full GHG reduction potential of biofuels to be realized, LCA results must have regional specificity and should inform incentives for growers and processors on a regional basis. The objectives of this work were to determine (1) variation in biofuel feedstock production related GHG emissions between three agroecological zones (AEZs) in eastern Washington State (2) the impact of nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) on GHG mitigation potential for each AEZ and (3) the impact of incentives on adoption of oilseed production. Results from objective (1) revealed there is wide variability in range for GHG estimates both across and within AEZs based on variation in farming practices and environment. It is expected that results for objective (2) will show further GHG mitigation potential due to minimizing N use and therefore fertilizer transport and soil related GHG emission while potentially increasing biodiesel production per hectare. Regional based incentives may allow more timely achievement of goals for bio-based fuels production. Additionally, incentives may further increase GHG offsetting by promoting nitrogen conserving best management practices implementation. This research highlights the need for regional assessment/incentive based

  8. Compositing climate change vulnerability of a Mediterranean region using spatiotemporally dynamic proxies for ecological and socioeconomic impacts and stabilities.

    PubMed

    Demirkesen, Ali Can; Evrendilek, Fatih

    2017-01-01

    The study presents a new methodology to quantify spatiotemporal dynamics of climate change vulnerability at a regional scale adopting a new conceptual model of vulnerability as a function of climate change impacts, ecological stability, and socioeconomic stability. Spatiotemporal trends of equally weighted proxy variables for the three vulnerability components were generated to develop a composite climate change vulnerability index (CCVI) for a Mediterranean region of Turkey combining Landsat time series data, digital elevation model (DEM)-derived data, ordinary kriging, and geographical information system. Climate change impact was based on spatiotemporal trends of August land surface temperature (LST) between 1987 and 2016. Ecological stability was based on DEM, slope, aspect, and spatiotemporal trends of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), while socioeconomic stability was quantified as a function of spatiotemporal trends of land cover, population density, per capita gross domestic product, and illiteracy. The zones ranked on the five classes of no-to-extreme vulnerability were identified where highly and moderately vulnerable lands covered 0.02% (12 km(2)) and 11.8% (6374 km(2)) of the study region, respectively, mostly occurring in the interior central part. The adoption of this composite CCVI approach is expected to lead to spatiotemporally dynamic policy recommendations towards sustainability and tailor preventive and mitigative measures to locally specific characteristics of coupled ecological-socioeconomic systems.

  9. The impact of regional and neighbourhood deprivation on physical health in Germany: a multilevel study

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background There is increasing evidence that individual health is at least partly determined by neighbourhood and regional factors. Mechanisms, however, remain poorly understood, and evidence from Germany is scant. This study explores whether regional as well as neighbourhood deprivation are associated with physical health and to what extent this association can be explained by specific neighbourhood exposures. Methods Using 2004 data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) merged with regional and neighbourhood characteristics, we fitted multilevel linear regression models with subjective physical health, as measured by the SF-12, as the dependent variable. The models include regional and neighbourhood proxies of deprivation (i.e. regional unemployment quota, average purchasing power of the street section) as well as specific neighbourhood exposures (i.e. perceived air pollution). Individual characteristics including socioeconomic status and health behaviour have been controlled for. Results This study finds a significant association between area deprivation and physical health which is independent of compositional factors and consistent across different spatial scales. Furthermore the association between neighbourhood deprivation and physical health can be partly explained by specific features of the neighbourhood environment. Among these perceived air pollution shows the strongest association with physical health (-2.4 points for very strong and -1.5 points for strong disturbance by air pollution, standard error (SE) = 0.8 and 0.4, respectively). Beta coefficients for perceived air pollution, perceived noise and the perceived distance to recreational resources do not diminish when including individual health behaviour in the models. Conclusions This study highlights the difference regional and in particular neighbourhood deprivation make to the physical health of individuals in Germany. The results support the argument that specific neighbourhood

  10. Statistical Analysis of the Impacts of Regional Transportation on the Air Quality in Beijing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Zhongwen; Zhang, Huiling; Tong, Lei; Xiao, Hang

    2016-04-01

    From October to December 2015, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region had experienced several severe haze events. In order to assess the effects of the regional transportation on the air quality in Beijing, the air monitoring data (PM2.5, SO2, NO2 and CO) from that period published by Chinese National Environmental Monitoring Center (CNEMC) was collected and analyzed with various statistical models. The cities within BTH area were clustered into three groups according to the geographical conditions, while the air pollutant concentrations of cities within a group sharing similar variation trends. The Granger causality test results indicate that significant causal relationships exist between the air pollutant data of Beijing and its surrounding cities (Baoding, Chengde, Tianjin and Zhangjiakou) for the reference period. Then, linear regression models were constructed to capture the interdependency among the multiple time series. It shows that the observed air pollutant concentrations in Beijing were well consistent with the model-fitted results. More importantly, further analysis suggests that the air pollutants in Beijing were strongly affected by regional transportation, as the local sources only contributed 17.88%, 27.12%, 14.63% and 31.36% of PM2.5, SO2, NO2 and CO concentrations, respectively. And the major foreign source for Beijing was from Southwest (Baoding) direction, account for more than 42% of all these air pollutants. Thus, by combining various statistical models, it may not only be able to quickly predict the air qualities of any cities on a regional scale, but also to evaluate the local and regional source contributions for a particular city. Key words: regional transportation, air pollution, Granger causality test, statistical models

  11. A multiattribute index for assessing environmental impacts of regional development projects: a case study of Korea.

    PubMed

    Kwak, Seung-Jun; Yoo, Seung-Hoon; Shin, Chol-Oh

    2002-02-01

    Evaluating environmental impacts has become an increasingly vital part of environmental management. In the present study, a methodological procedure based on multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) has been applied to obtain a decision-maker's value index on assessment of the environmental impacts. The paper begins with an overview of MAUT. Next, we elicited strategic objectives and several important attributes, and then structured them into a hierarchy, with the aim of structuring and quantifying the basic values for the assessment. An environmental multiattribute index is constructed as a multiattribute utility function, based on value judgements provided by a decision-maker at the Korean Ministry of Environment (MOE). The implications of the results are useful for many aspects of MOE's environmental policies; identifying the strategic objectives and basic values; facilitating communication about the organization's priorities; and recognizing decision opportunities that face decision-makers of Korea.

  12. Geochemical constraints on source region of Cretaceous/Tertiary impact glasses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sigurdsson, H.; Bonte, Ph.; Turpin, L.; Chaussidon, M.; Metrich, N.; Steinberg, M.; Pradel, Ph.; D'Hondt, S.

    1991-10-01

    New trace elements and stable and radiogenic isotope data are presented which show that the silicic black glass spherules from the K/T boundary layer at Beloc in Haiti are derived from continental crust of andesitic composition, whereas the high-Ca glass formed by melting of evaporite-rich sediment. This is confirmed by melting experiments with evaporite and andesite at 1200-1400 C which approximately reproduce the high-Ca glass. The temperature-dependent variation of sulfur content in synthetic high-Ca glasses indicates a formation temperature of 1300 C for the Haiti glasses. The geology of the impact site inferred from the geochemistry of the Haiti glasses matches the lithologies found in the 180-km Chicxulub structure which occurs in Cretaceous evaporite deposits in Mexico. The high sulfur content of the calcic glasses suggests that the impact may have generated significant emissions of sulfur dioxide to the atmosphere, causing short-term global cooling.

  13. Comparison of impacts of aircraft emissions within the boundary layer on the regional ozone in South Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Sang-Keun; Shon, Zang-Ho; Kang, Yoon-Hee

    2015-09-01

    In this study, the air pollutants emitted from aircraft within the boundary layer (BL) were investigated for their impacts on the ozone (O3) concentration at and around three international airports (Incheon, RKSI; Gimpo, RKSS; and Jeju, RKPC) using the WRF-CMAQ modeling system during the summer of 2010. The analysis was performed using two sets of simulation scenarios: (1) with (i.e., TOTAL case) and (2) without aircraft emissions (i.e., BASE case). The model study suggested that aircraft emissions within the BL over the three airports can have a significant impact on the O3 (and NOx) concentrations in the source regions (the airports) and their surrounding/downwind areas. A significant negative impact of aircraft emissions on the O3 concentrations in the late afternoon (19:00 LST) was predicted near the three airports with their largest impact of -20 ppb near the RKSI at 19:00 LST. This was attributed mainly to the high NOx conditions in the VOC-limited areas and possibly in part to the rapid titration of O3 by NO around these airports. The rate of photochemical O3 destruction due to the aircraft emissions near the three airports was the most dominant contributor to the O3 levels compared to the other physical processes.

  14. A Framework to Predict the Impacts of Shale Gas Infrastructures on the Forest Fragmentation of an Agroforest Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Racicot, Alexandre; Babin-Roussel, Véronique; Dauphinais, Jean-François; Joly, Jean-Sébastien; Noël, Pascal; Lavoie, Claude

    2014-05-01

    We propose a framework to facilitate the evaluation of the impacts of shale gas infrastructures (well pads, roads, and pipelines) on land cover features, especially with regards to forest fragmentation. We used a geographic information system and realistic development scenarios largely inspired by the PA (United States) experience, but adapted to a region of QC (Canada) with an already fragmented forest cover and a high gas potential. The scenario with the greatest impact results from development limited by regulatory constraints only, with no access to private roads for connecting well pads to the public road network. The scenario with the lowest impact additionally integrates ecological constraints (deer yards, maple woodlots, and wetlands). Overall the differences between these two scenarios are relatively minor, with <1 % of the forest cover lost in each case. However, large areas of core forests would be lost in both scenarios and the number of forest patches would increase by 13-21 % due to fragmentation. The pipeline network would have a much greater footprint on the land cover than access roads. Using data acquired since the beginning of the shale gas industry, we show that it is possible, within a reasonable time frame, to produce a robust assessment of the impacts of shale gas extraction. The framework we propose could easily be applied to other contexts or jurisdictions.

  15. Tonawanda Creek, Genesee County, New York, Regional Flood Control. Final Environmental Impact Statement.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-11-01

    several hours. Turbidity and 3uspended solids concentrations lower than those necessary to cause death or physiological injury may also produce other...water, DC proved to be more effective since the fish were attracted to the anode and could be seen and captured by the netters . One person carried the...intermittent flooding. Teskey and Hinckley (1977)1/ give a good review of both short-term and long-term impacts of flooding on vegetation. Physiological

  16. Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño/Southern Oscillation impacts on regional chlorophyll anomalies in the Indian Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Currie, J. C.; Lengaigne, M.; Vialard, J.; Kaplan, D. M.; Aumont, O.; Naqvi, S. W. A.; Maury, O.

    2013-10-01

    The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are independent climate modes, which frequently co-occur, driving significant interannual changes within the Indian Ocean. We use a four-decade hindcast from a coupled biophysical ocean general circulation model, to disentangle patterns of chlorophyll anomalies driven by these two climate modes. Comparisons with remotely sensed records show that the simulation competently reproduces the chlorophyll seasonal cycle, as well as open-ocean anomalies during the 1997/1998 ENSO and IOD event. Results suggest that anomalous surface and euphotic-layer chlorophyll blooms in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean in fall, and southern Bay of Bengal in winter, are primarily related to IOD forcing. A negative influence of IOD on chlorophyll concentrations is shown in a region around the southern tip of India in fall. IOD also depresses depth-integrated chlorophyll in the 5-10° S thermocline ridge region, yet the signal is negligible in surface chlorophyll. The only investigated region where ENSO has a greater influence on chlorophyll than does IOD, is in the Somalia upwelling region, where it causes a decrease in fall and winter chlorophyll by reducing local upwelling winds. Yet unlike most other regions examined, the combined explanatory power of IOD and ENSO in predicting depth-integrated chlorophyll anomalies is relatively low in this region, suggestive that other drivers are important there. We show that the chlorophyll impact of climate indices is frequently asymmetric, with a general tendency for larger positive than negative chlorophyll anomalies. Our results suggest that ENSO and IOD cause significant and predictable regional re-organisation of chlorophyll via their influence on near-surface oceanography. Resolving the details of these effects should improve our understanding, and eventually gain predictability, of interannual changes in Indian Ocean productivity, fisheries, ecosystems and carbon

  17. Martian Polar Region Impact Craters: Geometric Properties From Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garvin, J. B.; Sakimoto, S. E. H.; Frawley, J. J.; Matias, A.

    1998-01-01

    The Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) instrument onboard the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft has so far observed approximately 100 impact landforms in the north polar latitudes (>60 degrees N) of Mars. Correlation of the topography with Viking Orbiter images indicate that many of these are near-center profiles, and for some of the most northern craters, multiple data passes have been acquired. The northern high latitudes of Mars may contain substantial ground ice and be topped with seasonal frost (largely CO2 with some water), forming each winter. We have analyzed various diagnostic crater topologic parameters for this high-latitude crater population with the objective of characterizing impact features in north polar terrains, and we explore whether there is evidence of interaction with ground ice, frost, dune movement, or other polar processes. We find that there are substantial topographic variations from the characteristics of midlatitude craters in the polar craters that are not readily apparent from prior images. The transition from small simple craters to large complex craters is not well defined, as was observed in the midlatitude MOLA data (transition at 7-8 km). Additionally, there appear to be additional topographic complexities such as anomalously large central structures in many polar latitude impact features. It is not yet clear if these are due to target-induced differences in the formation of the crater or post-formation modifications from polar processes.

  18. Black Carbon : Impacts on Local, Regional and Global Environment and Climate (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramanathan, V.

    2010-12-01

    Black Carbon is one of the unique pollutants that has a large direct negative impact on human health, indoor and outdoor air quality, temperature, cloudiness, precipitation, mountain glaciers, sea ice, and snow packs. We are just beginning to unravel its impact on all these scales and phenomena. The lack of access to fossil fuels forces more than 3 billion from rural populations to burn biomass fuels such as dung, firewood, and crops. The resulting pollution indoors and outdoors kills over 2 million people annually in developing nations. It also contributes to the so-called atmospheric brown clouds (ABCs), which eventually become transcontinental plumes, with large impacts on clouds and rainfall patterns and which also contribute to glacier melting. In the industrial world, fossil fuel combustion is a major source of black carbon and ABCs, which contribute to global warming and retreat of arctic sea ice. There is now a compelling, if not convincing, case to regulate or eliminate black carbon emissions. Such measures can reduce global warming, improve health, improve air quality, and slow down glacier retreat.

  19. Climate change impacts on soil erosion in the Great Lakes Region

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Quantifying changes in potential soil erosion under projections of changing climate is important for the sustainable management of land resources, especially for regions dominated by agricultural land use, as soil loss estimates will be helpful in identifying areas susceptible to erosion, targeting ...

  20. IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIATION AND CHANGE ON MID-ATLANTIC REGION HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The sensitivity of hydrology and water resources to climate variation and climate change is assessed for the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) of the United States. Observed streamflow, groundwater, and water-quality data are shown to vary in association with climate variation. Projectio...

  1. 78 FR 48862 - Intent To Prepare an Environmental Impact Statement for the Gulf Regional Airspace Strategic...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-08-12

    ... federal agencies to expand the capacity of the region to safely host military test and training operations... a number of different land and air training activities which currently occur within the interstitial (areas between designated test/ training sites) areas of the Eglin Air Force Base (AFB) Range. The...

  2. A Preliminary Synthesis of Modeled Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Regional Ozone Concentrations

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper provides a synthesis of results that have emerged from recent modeling studies of the potential sensitivity of U.S. regional ozone (O3) concentrations to global climate change (c. 2050). This research has been carried out under the auspices of an ongoing U....

  3. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIATION AND CHANGE ON MID-ATLANTIC REGION HYDROLOGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study analyzes periodic variations in the climate of the mid-Atlantic Region over the last 100 years and uses general circulation models (GCMs) to project major climate trends for the next hundred years. Historical data include the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for th...

  4. Wave like signatures in aerosol optical depth and associated radiative impacts over the central Himalayan region

    SciTech Connect

    Shukla, K. K.; Phanikumar, D. V.; Kumar, K.  Niranjan; Reddy, Kishore; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Newsom, Rob K.; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.

    2015-10-01

    In this study, we present a case study on 16 October 2011 to show the first observational evidence of the influence of short period gravity waves in aerosol transport during daytime over the central Himalayan region. The Doppler lidar data has been utilized to address the daytime boundary layer evolution and related aerosol dynamics over the site. Mixing layer height is estimated by wavelet covariance transform method and found to be ~ 0.7 km, AGL. Aerosol optical depth observations during daytime revealed an asymmetry showing clear enhancement during afternoon hours as compared to forenoon. Interestingly, Fourier and wavelet analysis of vertical velocity and attenuated backscatter showed similar 50-90 min short period gravity wave signatures during afternoon hours. Moreover, our observations showed that gravity waves are dominant within the boundary layer implying that the daytime boundary layer dynamics is playing a vital role in transporting the aerosols from surface to the top of the boundary layer. Similar modulations are also evident in surface parameters like temperature, relative humidity and wind speed indicating these waves are associated with the dynamical aspects over Himalayan region. Finally, time evolution of range-23 height indicator snapshots during daytime showed strong upward velocities especially during afternoon hours implying that convective processes through short period gravity waves plays a significant role in transporting aerosols from the nearby valley region to boundary layer top over the site. These observations also establish the importance of wave induced daytime convective boundary layer dynamics in the lower Himalayan region.

  5. Regional air quality impacts of increased natural gas production and use in Texas.

    PubMed

    Pacsi, Adam P; Alhajeri, Nawaf S; Zavala-Araiza, Daniel; Webster, Mort D; Allen, David T

    2013-04-02

    Natural gas use in electricity generation in Texas was estimated, for gas prices ranging from $1.89 to $7.74 per MMBTU, using an optimal power flow model. Hourly estimates of electricity generation, for individual electricity generation units, from the model were used to estimate spatially resolved hourly emissions from electricity generation. Emissions from natural gas production activities in the Barnett Shale region were also estimated, with emissions scaled up or down to match demand in electricity generation as natural gas prices changed. As natural gas use increased, emissions decreased from electricity generation and increased from natural gas production. Overall, NOx and SO2 emissions decreased, while VOC emissions increased as natural gas use increased. To assess the effects of these changes in emissions on ozone and particulate matter concentrations, spatially and temporally resolved emissions were used in a month-long photochemical modeling episode. Over the month-long photochemical modeling episode, decreases in natural gas prices typical of those experienced from 2006 to 2012 led to net regional decreases in ozone (0.2-0.7 ppb) and fine particulate matter (PM) (0.1-0.7 μg/m(3)). Changes in PM were predominantly due to changes in regional PM sulfate formation. Changes in regional PM and ozone formation are primarily due to decreases in emissions from electricity generation. Increases in emissions from increased natural gas production were offset by decreasing emissions from electricity generation for all the scenarios considered.

  6. Projected impacts of climate change on regional capacities for global plant species richness

    PubMed Central

    Sommer, Jan Henning; Kreft, Holger; Kier, Gerold; Jetz, Walter; Mutke, Jens; Barthlott, Wilhelm

    2010-01-01

    Climate change represents a major challenge to the maintenance of global biodiversity. To date, the direction and magnitude of net changes in the global distribution of plant diversity remain elusive. We use the empirical multi-variate relationships between contemporary water-energy dynamics and other non-climatic predictor variables to model the regional capacity for plant species richness (CSR) and its projected future changes. We find that across all analysed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios, relative changes in CSR increase with increased projected temperature rise. Between now and 2100, global average CSR is projected to remain similar to today (+0.3%) under the optimistic B1/+1.8°C scenario, but to decrease significantly (−9.4%) under the ‘business as usual’ A1FI/+4.0°C scenario. Across all modelled scenarios, the magnitude and direction of CSR change are geographically highly non-uniform. While in most temperate and arctic regions, a CSR increase is expected, the projections indicate a strong decline in most tropical and subtropical regions. Countries least responsible for past and present greenhouse gas emissions are likely to incur disproportionately large future losses in CSR, whereas industrialized countries have projected moderate increases. Independent of direction, we infer that all changes in regional CSR will probably induce on-site species turnover and thereby be a threat to native floras. PMID:20335215

  7. Examining the Impact of Regional-Scale Air Quality Regulations on Human Health Outcomes

    EPA Science Inventory

    The NOx State Implementation Plan Call was issued by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to reduce the emissions of nitrogen oxides from the electric power sector to curtail the regional transport of the secondarily-formed pollutant, ozone. As emission control actions often...

  8. The Regional Impact of Current and Future Dust Levels on Climate in Western North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hutchison, K. A.; O'Brien, T. A.; Sloan, L. C.

    2008-12-01

    Recent global climate model (GCM) studies indicate that southwestern North America may transition to a more arid climate in the next century due to a shifting further north of the poleward edge of the Hadley cell (resulting from increased land and sea surface temperatures). Accompanying this aridification, it is possible that rates of dust production in this region will increase. While it is known that dust concentrations in the atmosphere affect climate, particularly at the regional level, the magnitude as well as the sign of predicted dust-climate effects vary significantly. Aerosols from dust can either reflect or absorb sunlight depending on several factors including concentration and particle size. Additionally, regional atmospheric circulation patterns (un-resolvable by GCMs) influence the distribution of dust. Using climate scenarios from the most recent version of the regional climate model RegCM with a newly developed dust module, this study examines possible changes in dust production in western North America in the next century and how these changes would affect climate. These results are presented in the context of present day dust-climate interactions. Future scenarios also assess the effects of different atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, specifically from the two most disparate IPCC AR4 scenarios for the year 2100: one in which CO2 emissions were frozen at the year 2000 (the lowest atmospheric CO2 increase considered), and the other using the fossil fuel intensive A1F1 scenario (highest CO2 increase). For both CO2 scenarios, the model is run twice: once with and once without dust-climate interactions included in the climate system feedbacks. This study allows inferences to be made about the levels of dust that could occur in 2100 and how these dust concentrations could alter current predictions of climate for the study region. Further, the effect that increasing CO2 levels may have on both the levels of dust, and how dust affects climate, is

  9. Impacts of small arteriovenous malformations (AVM) on regional cerebral blood flow and glucose metabolism

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, R.S.; Yeh, S.H.; Chu, L.S.

    1994-05-01

    This study assessed the effects of small AVMs (<3 cm) on the regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) by Tc-99m HMPAO SPECT and on the glucose metabolism (rCGlcM) by [F-18]-FDG PET. Seven AVM patients (pts) were studied. All AVMs were confirmed by cerebral angiography and CT/MR scans. Tc-99m HMPAO SPECT and [F-18]-PDG PET images were interpreted visually to detect the changes of rCBF and rCGlcM. All pts except one brain stem AVM had defects in the regions of nidi on HMPAO and FDG images. FDG PET disclosed low rCGlcM in surrounding areas of AVMs in 6 pts, while HMPAO SPECT detected only 4 cases. One AVM had increased rCBF surrounding the nidus despite of decreased rCGlcM in the same region. Five pts had abnormal rCGlcM over ipsilateral remote cortex but only one had corresponding abnormal rCBF. Contralateral cortical hypofunction was noted in 3 pts by FDG PET but none by HMPAO SPECT. Cross cerebellar diaschisis was found in 2 AVMs by FDG PET and only one by HMPAO SPECT. All regions with abnormal HMPAO uptake did not look as discernibly as seen on the FDG PET scan. CT/MR scans detected the nidi of AVMs of all pts and old hemorrhage in one pt. In conclusion, either HMPAO SPECT or FDG PET is sensitive to detect the functional abnormalities in the region of nidus of small AVM and the surrounding brain tissue. FDG PET is better than HMPAO SPECT to detect functional changes in the remote cortex and diaschisis.

  10. Trends in aerosol optical depth over Indian region: Potential causes and impact indicators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babu, S. Suresh; Manoj, M. R.; Moorthy, K. Krishna; Gogoi, Mukunda M.; Nair, Vijayakumar S.; Kompalli, Sobhan Kumar; Satheesh, S. K.; Niranjan, K.; Ramagopal, K.; Bhuyan, P. K.; Singh, Darshan

    2013-10-01

    first regional synthesis of long-term (back to ~ 25 years at some stations) primary data (from direct measurement) on aerosol optical depth from the ARFINET (network of aerosol observatories established under the Aerosol Radiative Forcing over India (ARFI) project of Indian Space Research Organization over Indian subcontinent) have revealed a statistically significant increasing trend with a significant seasonal variability. Examining the current values of turbidity coefficients with those reported ~ 50 years ago reveals the phenomenal nature of the increase in aerosol loading. Seasonally, the rate of increase is consistently high during the dry months (December to March) over the entire region whereas the trends are rather inconsistent and weak during the premonsoon (April to May) and summer monsoon period (June to September). The trends in the spectral variation of aerosol optical depth (AOD) reveal the significance of anthropogenic activities on the increasing trend in AOD. Examining these with climate variables such as seasonal and regional rainfall, it is seen that the dry season depicts a decreasing trend in the total number of rainy days over the Indian region. The insignificant trend in AOD observed over the Indo-Gangetic Plain, a regional hot spot of aerosols, during the premonsoon and summer monsoon season is mainly attributed to the competing effects of dust transport and wet removal of aerosols by the monsoon rain. Contributions of different aerosol chemical species to the total dust, simulated using Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model over the ARFINET stations, showed an increasing trend for all the anthropogenic components and a decreasing trend for dust, consistent with the inference deduced from trend in Angstrom exponent.

  11. Regional Climate Modeling of West African Summer Monsoon Climate: Impact of Historical Boundary Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kebe, I.

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we analyze and intercompare the performance of an ensemble of three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) driven by three set of Global Climate Models (GCMs), in reproducing seasonal mean climatologies with their annual cycle and the key features of West African summer monsoon over 20 years period (1985-2004) during the present day. The results show that errors in lateral boundary conditions from the GCM members, have an unexpected way on the skill of the RCMs in reproducing regional climate features such as the West African Monsoon features and the annual cycle of precipitation and temperature in terms of outperforming the GCM simulation. It also shows the occurrence of the West African Monsoon jump, the intensification and northward shift of the Saharan Heat Low (SHL) as expressed in some RCMs than the GCMs. Most RCMs also capture the mean annual cycle of precipitation and temperature, including, single and double-peaked during the summer months, in terms of events and amplitude. In a series of RCMs and GCMs experiments between the Sahara region and equatorial Africa, the presence of strong positive meridional temperature gradients at the surface and a strong meridional gradients in the potential temperatures near the surface are obvious, indicating the region of strong vertical shear development enough to establish easterly flow such as the African easterly jet. In addition, the isentropic potential vorticity (IPV) gradient decreases northward in the lower troposphere across northern Africa, with the maximum reversal on the 315-K surface. The region with negative IPV gradient favors the potential instability which has been associated with the growth of easterly waves.

  12. Regional Impact of Climate on Japanese Encephalitis in Areas Located near the Three Gorges Dam

    PubMed Central

    Mao, Deqiang; Luo, Chao; He, Yuanyuan; Liang, Guodong; Lu, Bo; Bisesi, Michael S.; Sun, Qinghua; Xu, Xinyi; Yang, Weizhong; Liu, Qiyong

    2014-01-01

    Background In this study, we aim to identify key climatic factors that are associated with the transmission of Japanese encephalitis virus in areas located near the Three Gorges Dam, between 1997 and 2008. Methods We identified three geographical regions of Chongqing, based on their distance from the Three Gorges Dam. Collectively, the three regions consisted of 12 districts from which study information was collected. Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression models were run to identify key climatic factors of the transmission of Japanese encephalitis virus for both the whole study area and for each individual region; linear regression models were conducted to examine the fluctuation of climatic variables over time during the construction of the Three Gorges Dam. Results Between 1997 and 2008, the incidence of Japanese encephalitis decreased throughout the entire city of Chongqing, with noticeable variations taking place in 2000, 2001 and 2006. The eastern region, which is closest to the Three Gorges Dam, suffered the highest incidence of Japanese encephalitis, while the western region experienced the lowest incidence. Linear regression models revealed that there were seasonal fluctuations of climatic variables during this period. Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression models indicated a significant positive association between temperature (with a lag of 1 and 3 months) and Japanese encephalitis incidence, and a significant negative association between rainfall (with a lag of 0 and 4 months) and Japanese encephalitis incidence. Conclusion The spatial and temporal trends of Japanese encephalitis incidence that occurred in the City of Chongqing were associated with temperature and rainfall. Seasonal fluctuations of climatic variables during this period were also observed. Additional studies that focus on long-term data collection are needed to validate the findings of this study and to further explore the effects of the Three Gorges Dam on Japanese encephalitis and other related

  13. Impacts Of Global/Regional Climate Changes On Environment And Health: Need For Integrated Research And Education Collaboration (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tuluri, F.

    2013-12-01

    The realization of long term changes in climate in research community has to go beyond the comfort zone through climate literacy in academics. Higher education on climate change is the platform to bring together the otherwise disconnected factors such as effective discovery, decision making, innovation, interdisciplinary collaboration, Climate change is a complex process that may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system, or to variations in natural or anthropogenic (human-driven) external forcing. Global climate change indicates a change in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for several decades or longer. This includes changes in a