Phenology of marine turtle nesting revealed by statistical model of the nesting season.

PubMed

Girondot, Marc; Rivalan, Philippe; Wongsopawiro, Ronald; Briane, Jean-Paul; Hulin, Vincent; Caut, Stéphane; Guirlet, Elodie; Godfrey, Matthew H

2006-08-31

Marine turtles deposit their eggs on tropical or subtropical beaches during discrete nesting seasons that span several months. The number and distribution of nests laid during a nesting season provide vital information on various aspects of marine turtle ecology and conservation. In the case of leatherback sea turtles nesting in French Guiana, we developed a mathematical model to explore the phenology of their nesting season, derived from an incomplete nest count dataset. We detected 3 primary components in the nest distribution of leatherbacks: an overall shape that corresponds to the arrival and departure of leatherback females in the Guianas region, a sinusoidal pattern with a period of approximately 10 days that is related to physiological constraints of nesting female leatherbacks, and a sinusoidal pattern with a period of approximately 15 days that likely reflects the influence of spring high tides on nesting female turtles. The model proposed here offers a variety of uses for both marine turtles and also other taxa when individuals are observed in a particular location for only part of the year.

A two-way nesting procedure for the WAM model: Application to the Spanish coast

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lahoz, M.G.; Albiach, J.C.C.

1997-02-01

The performance of the standard one-way nesting procedure for a regional application of a third-generation wave model is investigated. It is found that this nesting procedure is not applicable when the resolution has to be enhanced drastically, unless intermediate grids are placed between the coarse and the fine grid areas. This solution, in turn, requires an excess of computing resources. A two-way nesting procedure is developed and implemented in the model. Advantages and disadvantages of both systems are discussed. The model output for a test case is compared with observed data and the results are discussed in the paper.

Nonhydrostatic nested climate modeling: A case study of the 2010 summer season over the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebassi-Habtezion, Bereket; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2013-10-01

potential importance of local-scale climate phenomena motivates development of approaches to enable computationally feasible nonhydrostatic climate simulations. To that end, we evaluate the potential viability of nested nonhydrostatic model approaches, using the summer climate of the western United States (WUSA) as a case study. We use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to carry out five simulations of summer 2010. This suite allows us to test differences between nonhydrostatic and hydrostatic resolutions, single and multiple nesting approaches, and high- and low-resolution reanalysis boundary conditions. WRF simulations were evaluated against station observations, gridded observations, and reanalysis data over domains that cover the 11 WUSA states at nonhydrostatic grid spacing of 4 km and hydrostatic grid spacing of 25 km and 50 km. Results show that the nonhydrostatic simulations more accurately resolve the heterogeneity of surface temperature, precipitation, and wind speed features associated with the topography and orography of the WUSA region. In addition, we find that the simulation in which the nonhydrostatic grid is nested directly within the regional reanalysis exhibits the greatest overall agreement with observational data. Results therefore indicate that further development of nonhydrostatic nesting approaches is likely to yield important insights into the response of local-scale climate phenomena to increases in global greenhouse gas concentrations. However, the biases in regional precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and moisture flux identified in a subset of the nonhydrostatic simulations suggest that alternative nonhydrostatic modeling approaches such as superparameterization and variable-resolution global nonhydrostatic modeling will provide important complements to the nested approaches tested here.

Neural correlates of nesting behavior in zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata).

PubMed

Hall, Zachary J; Bertin, Marion; Bailey, Ida E; Meddle, Simone L; Healy, Susan D

2014-05-01

Nest building in birds involves a behavioral sequence (nest material collection and deposition in the nest) that offers a unique model for addressing how the brain sequences motor actions. In this study, we identified brain regions involved in nesting behavior in male and female zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata). We used Fos immunohistochemistry to quantify production of the immediate early gene protein product Fos (a molecular indicator of neuronal activity) in the brain correlated this expression with the variation in nesting behavior. Using this technique, we found that neural circuitry involved in motor sequencing, social behavior, reward and motivation were active during nesting. Within pairs of nesting birds, the number of times a male picked up or deposited nesting material and the amount of time a female spent in the nest explained the variation in Fos expression in the anterior motor pathway, social behavior network, and reward neural circuits. Identification of the brain regions that are involved in nesting enables us to begin studying the roles of motor sequencing, context, and reward in construction behavior at the neural level. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Neural correlates of nesting behavior in zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata)

PubMed Central

Hall, Zachary J.; Bertin, Marion; Bailey, Ida E.; Meddle, Simone L.; Healy, Susan D.

2014-01-01

Nest building in birds involves a behavioral sequence (nest material collection and deposition in the nest) that offers a unique model for addressing how the brain sequences motor actions. In this study, we identified brain regions involved in nesting behavior in male and female zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata). We used Fos immunohistochemistry to quantify production of the immediate early gene protein product Fos (a molecular indicator of neuronal activity) in the brain correlated this expression with the variation in nesting behavior. Using this technique, we found that neural circuitry involved in motor sequencing, social behavior, reward and motivation were active during nesting. Within pairs of nesting birds, the number of times a male picked up or deposited nesting material and the amount of time a female spent in the nest explained the variation in Fos expression in the anterior motor pathway, social behavior network, and reward neural circuits. Identification of the brain regions that are involved in nesting enables us to begin studying the roles of motor sequencing, context, and reward in construction behavior at the neural level. PMID:24508238

Upscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandenbulcke, Luc; Barth, Alexander

2017-04-01

In the present European operational oceanography context, global and basin-scale models are run daily at different Monitoring and Forecasting Centers from the Copernicus Marine component (CMEMS). Regional forecasting centers, which run outside of CMEMS, then use these forecasts as initial conditions and/or boundary conditions for high-resolution or coastal forecasts. However, these improved simulations are lost to the basin-scale models (i.e. there is no feedback). Therefore, some potential improvements inside (and even outside) the areas covered by regional models are lost, and the risk for discrepancy between basin-scale and regional model remains high. The objective of this study is to simulate two-way nesting by extracting pseudo-observations from the regional models and assimilating them in the basin-scale models. The proposed method is called "upscaling". A ensemble of 100 one-way nested NEMO models of the Mediterranean Sea (Med) (1/16°) and the North-Western Med (1/80°) is implemented to simulate the period 2014-2015. Each member has perturbed initial conditions, atmospheric forcing fields and river discharge data. The Med model uses climatological Rhone river data, while the nested model uses measured daily discharges. The error of the pseudo-observations can be estimated by analyzing the ensemble of nested models. The pseudo-observations are then assimilated in the parent model by means of an Ensemble Kalman Filter. The experiments show that the proposed method improves different processes in the Med model, such as the position of the Northern Current and its incursion (or not) on the Gulf of Lions, the cold water mass on the shelf, and the position of the Rhone river plume. Regarding areas where no operational regional models exist, (some variables of) the parent model can still be improved by relating some resolved parameters to statistical properties of a higher-resolution simulation. This is the topic of a complementary study also presented at the EGU 2017 (Barth et al).

FVCOM one-way and two-way nesting using ESMF: Development and validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Jianhua; Chen, Changsheng; Beardsley, Robert C.

2018-04-01

Built on the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF), the one-way and two-way nesting methods were implemented into the unstructured-grid Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM). These methods help utilize the unstructured-grid multi-domain nesting of FVCOM with an aim at resolving the multi-scale physical and ecosystem processes. A detail of procedures on implementing FVCOM into ESMF was described. The experiments were made to validate and evaluate the performance of the nested-grid FVCOM system. The first was made for a wave-current interaction case with a two-domain nesting with an emphasis on qualifying a critical need of nesting to resolve a high-resolution feature near the coast and harbor with little loss in computational efficiency. The second was conducted for the pseudo river plume cases to examine the differences in the model-simulated salinity between one-way and two-way nesting approaches and evaluate the performance of mass conservative two-way nesting method. The third was carried out for the river plume case in the realistic geometric domain in Mass Bay, supporting the importance for having the two-way nesting for coastal-estuarine integrated modeling. The nesting method described in this paper has been used in the Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS)-a global-regional-coastal nesting FVCOM system that has been placed into the end-to-end forecast and hindcast operations since 2007.

CMS-Wave Model: Part 3: Grid Nesting and Application Example for Rhode Island South Shore Regional Sediment Management Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-07-01

CDIP 154 (NDBC 44097) in 48-m water depth. Figure 5 shows the extent of the regional bathymetry grid and five nested child grids covering the...directional spectra from the nearest offshore buoy ( CDIP 154). The water level along the ocean boundary is from the Le Provost database. In the

Regional drivers of clutch loss reveal important trade-offs for beach-nesting birds

PubMed Central

Schlacher, Thomas A.; Weston, Michael A.; Huijbers, Chantal M.; Anderson, Chris; Gilby, Ben L.; Olds, Andrew D.; Connolly, Rod M.; Schoeman, David S.

2016-01-01

Coastal birds are critical ecosystem constituents on sandy shores, yet are threatened by depressed reproductive success resulting from direct and indirect anthropogenic and natural pressures. Few studies examine clutch fate across the wide range of environments experienced by birds; instead, most focus at the small site scale. We examine survival of model shorebird clutches as an index of true clutch survival at a regional scale (∼200 km), encompassing a variety of geomorphologies, predator communities, and human use regimes in southeast Queensland, Australia. Of the 132 model nests deployed and monitored with cameras, 45 (34%) survived the experimental exposure period. Thirty-five (27%) were lost to flooding, 32 (24%) were depredated, nine (7%) buried by sand, seven (5%) destroyed by people, three (2%) failed by unknown causes, and one (1%) was destroyed by a dog. Clutch fate differed substantially among regions, particularly with respect to losses from flooding and predation. ‘Topographic’ exposure was the main driver of mortality of nests placed close to the drift line near the base of dunes, which were lost to waves (particularly during storms) and to a lesser extent depredation. Predators determined the fate of clutches not lost to waves, with the depredation probability largely influenced by region. Depredation probability declined as nests were backed by higher dunes and were placed closer to vegetation. This study emphasizes the scale at which clutch fate and survival varies within a regional context, the prominence of corvids as egg predators, the significant role of flooding as a source of nest loss, and the multiple trade-offs faced by beach-nesting birds and those that manage them. PMID:27672510

Regional drivers of clutch loss reveal important trade-offs for beach-nesting birds.

PubMed

Maslo, Brooke; Schlacher, Thomas A; Weston, Michael A; Huijbers, Chantal M; Anderson, Chris; Gilby, Ben L; Olds, Andrew D; Connolly, Rod M; Schoeman, David S

2016-01-01

Coastal birds are critical ecosystem constituents on sandy shores, yet are threatened by depressed reproductive success resulting from direct and indirect anthropogenic and natural pressures. Few studies examine clutch fate across the wide range of environments experienced by birds; instead, most focus at the small site scale. We examine survival of model shorebird clutches as an index of true clutch survival at a regional scale (∼200 km), encompassing a variety of geomorphologies, predator communities, and human use regimes in southeast Queensland, Australia. Of the 132 model nests deployed and monitored with cameras, 45 (34%) survived the experimental exposure period. Thirty-five (27%) were lost to flooding, 32 (24%) were depredated, nine (7%) buried by sand, seven (5%) destroyed by people, three (2%) failed by unknown causes, and one (1%) was destroyed by a dog. Clutch fate differed substantially among regions, particularly with respect to losses from flooding and predation. 'Topographic' exposure was the main driver of mortality of nests placed close to the drift line near the base of dunes, which were lost to waves (particularly during storms) and to a lesser extent depredation. Predators determined the fate of clutches not lost to waves, with the depredation probability largely influenced by region. Depredation probability declined as nests were backed by higher dunes and were placed closer to vegetation. This study emphasizes the scale at which clutch fate and survival varies within a regional context, the prominence of corvids as egg predators, the significant role of flooding as a source of nest loss, and the multiple trade-offs faced by beach-nesting birds and those that manage them.

Habitat suitability and nest survival of white-headed woodpeckers in unburned forests of Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hollenbeck, Jeff P.; Saab, Victoria A.; Frenzel, Richard W.

2011-01-01

We evaluated habitat suitability and nest survival of breeding white-headed woodpeckers (Picoides albolarvatus) in unburned forests of central Oregon, USA. Daily nest-survival rate was positively related to maximum daily temperature during the nest interval and to density of large-diameter trees surrounding the nest tree. We developed a niche-based habitat suitability model (partitioned Mahalanobis distance) for nesting white-headed woodpeckers using remotely sensed data. Along with low elevation, high density of large trees, and low slope, our habitat suitability model suggested that interspersion–juxtaposition of low- and high-canopy cover ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) patches was important for nest-site suitability. Cross-validation suggested the model performed adequately for management planning at a scale >1 ha. Evaluation of mapped habitat suitability index (HSI) suggested that the maximum predictive gain (HSI = 0.36), where the number of nest locations are maximized in the smallest proportion of the modeled landscape, provided an objective initial threshold for identification of suitable habitat. However, managers can choose the threshold HSI most appropriate for their purposes (e.g., locating regions of low–moderate suitability that have potential for habitat restoration). Consequently, our habitat suitability model may be useful for managing dry coniferous forests for white-headed woodpeckers in central Oregon; however, model validation is necessary before our model could be applied to other locations.

A Method to Represent Heterogeneous Materials for Rapid Prototyping: The Matryoshka Approach.

PubMed

Lei, Shuangyan; Frank, Matthew C; Anderson, Donald D; Brown, Thomas D

The purpose of this paper is to present a new method for representing heterogeneous materials using nested STL shells, based, in particular, on the density distributions of human bones. Nested STL shells, called Matryoshka models, are described, based on their namesake Russian nesting dolls. In this approach, polygonal models, such as STL shells, are "stacked" inside one another to represent different material regions. The Matryoshka model addresses the challenge of representing different densities and different types of bone when reverse engineering from medical images. The Matryoshka model is generated via an iterative process of thresholding the Hounsfield Unit (HU) data using computed tomography (CT), thereby delineating regions of progressively increasing bone density. These nested shells can represent regions starting with the medullary (bone marrow) canal, up through and including the outer surface of the bone. The Matryoshka approach introduced can be used to generate accurate models of heterogeneous materials in an automated fashion, avoiding the challenge of hand-creating an assembly model for input to multi-material additive or subtractive manufacturing. This paper presents a new method for describing heterogeneous materials: in this case, the density distribution in a human bone. The authors show how the Matryoshka model can be used to plan harvesting locations for creating custom rapid allograft bone implants from donor bone. An implementation of a proposed harvesting method is demonstrated, followed by a case study using subtractive rapid prototyping to harvest a bone implant from a human tibia surrogate.

Improved simulation of tropospheric ozone by a global-multi-regional two-way coupling model system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Yingying; Lin, Jintai; Chen, Jinxuan; Hu, Lu

2016-02-01

Small-scale nonlinear chemical and physical processes over pollution source regions affect the tropospheric ozone (O3), but these processes are not captured by current global chemical transport models (CTMs) and chemistry-climate models that are limited by coarse horizontal resolutions (100-500 km, typically 200 km). These models tend to contain large (and mostly positive) tropospheric O3 biases in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we use the recently built two-way coupling system of the GEOS-Chem CTM to simulate the regional and global tropospheric O3 in 2009. The system couples the global model (at 2.5° long. × 2° lat.) and its three nested models (at 0.667° long. × 0.5° lat.) covering Asia, North America and Europe, respectively. Specifically, the nested models take lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from the global model, better capture small-scale processes and feed back to modify the global model simulation within the nested domains, with a subsequent effect on their LBCs. Compared to the global model alone, the two-way coupled system better simulates the tropospheric O3 both within and outside the nested domains, as found by evaluation against a suite of ground (1420 sites from the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG), the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory Global Monitoring Division (GMD), the Chemical Coordination Centre of European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP), and the United States Environmental Protection Agency Air Quality System (AQS)), aircraft (the High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) and Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapor by Airbus In- Service Aircraft (MOZAIC)) and satellite measurements (two Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) products). The two-way coupled simulation enhances the correlation in day-to-day variation of afternoon mean surface O3 with the ground measurements from 0.53 to 0.68, and it reduces the mean model bias from 10.8 to 6.7 ppb. Regionally, the coupled system reduces the bias by 4.6 ppb over Europe, 3.9 ppb over North America and 3.1 ppb over other regions. The two-way coupling brings O3 vertical profiles much closer to the HIPPO (for remote areas) and MOZAIC (for polluted regions) data, reducing the tropospheric (0-9 km) mean bias by 3-10 ppb at most MOZAIC sites and by 5.3 ppb for HIPPO profiles. The two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric column ozone by 3.0 DU (9.5 %, annual mean), bringing them closer to the OMI data in all seasons. Additionally, the two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric mean hydroxyl radical by 5 % with improved estimates of methyl chloroform and methane lifetimes. Simulation improvements are more significant in the Northern Hemisphere, and are mainly driven by improved representation of spatial inhomogeneity in chemistry/emissions. Within the nested domains, the two-way coupled simulation reduces surface ozone biases relative to typical GEOS-Chem one-way nested simulations, due to much improved LBCs. The bias reduction is 1-7 times the bias reduction from the global to the one-way nested simulation. Improving model representations of small-scale processes is important for understanding the global and regional tropospheric chemistry.

New prior sampling methods for nested sampling - Development and testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stokes, Barrie; Tuyl, Frank; Hudson, Irene

2017-06-01

Nested Sampling is a powerful algorithm for fitting models to data in the Bayesian setting, introduced by Skilling [1]. The nested sampling algorithm proceeds by carrying out a series of compressive steps, involving successively nested iso-likelihood boundaries, starting with the full prior distribution of the problem parameters. The "central problem" of nested sampling is to draw at each step a sample from the prior distribution whose likelihood is greater than the current likelihood threshold, i.e., a sample falling inside the current likelihood-restricted region. For both flat and informative priors this ultimately requires uniform sampling restricted to the likelihood-restricted region. We present two new methods of carrying out this sampling step, and illustrate their use with the lighthouse problem [2], a bivariate likelihood used by Gregory [3] and a trivariate Gaussian mixture likelihood. All the algorithm development and testing reported here has been done with Mathematica® [4].

Climate Impacts on Sea Turtle Breeding Phenology in Greece and Associated Foraging Habitats in the Wider Mediterranean Region

PubMed Central

Morreale, Stephen J.; Saba, Vincent S.; Panagopoulou, Aliki; Margaritoulis, Dimitris; Spotila, James R.

2016-01-01

Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change impacts in both their terrestrial (nesting beach) and oceanic habitats. From 1982 to 2012, air and sea surface temperatures at major high use foraging and nesting regions (n = 5) of loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nesting in Greece have steadily increased. Here, we update the established relationships between sea surface temperature and nesting data from Zakynthos (latitude: 37.7°N), a major nesting beach, while also expanding these analyses to include precipitation and air temperature and additional nesting data from two other key beaches in Greece: Kyparissia Bay (latitude: 37.3°N) and Rethymno, Crete (latitude: 35.4°N). We confirmed that nesting phenology at Zakynthos has continued to be impacted by breeding season temperature; however, temperature has no consistent relationship with nest numbers, which are declining on Zakynthos and Crete but increasing at Kyparissia. Then using statistically downscaled outputs of 14 climate models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we projected future shifts in nesting for these populations. Based on the climate models, we projected that temperature at the key foraging and breeding sites (Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Crete, Gulf of Gabès and Zakynthos/Kyparissia Bay; overall latitudinal range: 33.0°—45.8°N) for loggerhead turtles nesting in Greece will rise by 3–5°C by 2100. Our calculations indicate that the projected rise in air and ocean temperature at Zakynthos could cause the nesting season in this major rookery to shift to an earlier date by as much as 50–74 days by 2100. Although an earlier onset of the nesting season may provide minor relief for nest success as temperatures rise, the overall climatic changes to the various important habitats will most likely have an overall negative impact on this population. PMID:27332550

Climate Impacts on Sea Turtle Breeding Phenology in Greece and Associated Foraging Habitats in the Wider Mediterranean Region.

PubMed

Patel, Samir H; Morreale, Stephen J; Saba, Vincent S; Panagopoulou, Aliki; Margaritoulis, Dimitris; Spotila, James R

2016-01-01

Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change impacts in both their terrestrial (nesting beach) and oceanic habitats. From 1982 to 2012, air and sea surface temperatures at major high use foraging and nesting regions (n = 5) of loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nesting in Greece have steadily increased. Here, we update the established relationships between sea surface temperature and nesting data from Zakynthos (latitude: 37.7°N), a major nesting beach, while also expanding these analyses to include precipitation and air temperature and additional nesting data from two other key beaches in Greece: Kyparissia Bay (latitude: 37.3°N) and Rethymno, Crete (latitude: 35.4°N). We confirmed that nesting phenology at Zakynthos has continued to be impacted by breeding season temperature; however, temperature has no consistent relationship with nest numbers, which are declining on Zakynthos and Crete but increasing at Kyparissia. Then using statistically downscaled outputs of 14 climate models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we projected future shifts in nesting for these populations. Based on the climate models, we projected that temperature at the key foraging and breeding sites (Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Crete, Gulf of Gabès and Zakynthos/Kyparissia Bay; overall latitudinal range: 33.0°-45.8°N) for loggerhead turtles nesting in Greece will rise by 3-5°C by 2100. Our calculations indicate that the projected rise in air and ocean temperature at Zakynthos could cause the nesting season in this major rookery to shift to an earlier date by as much as 50-74 days by 2100. Although an earlier onset of the nesting season may provide minor relief for nest success as temperatures rise, the overall climatic changes to the various important habitats will most likely have an overall negative impact on this population.

A Method to Represent Heterogeneous Materials for Rapid Prototyping: The Matryoshka Approach

PubMed Central

Lei, Shuangyan; Frank, Matthew C.; Anderson, Donald D.; Brown, Thomas D.

2015-01-01

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present a new method for representing heterogeneous materials using nested STL shells, based, in particular, on the density distributions of human bones. Design/methodology/approach Nested STL shells, called Matryoshka models, are described, based on their namesake Russian nesting dolls. In this approach, polygonal models, such as STL shells, are “stacked” inside one another to represent different material regions. The Matryoshka model addresses the challenge of representing different densities and different types of bone when reverse engineering from medical images. The Matryoshka model is generated via an iterative process of thresholding the Hounsfield Unit (HU) data using computed tomography (CT), thereby delineating regions of progressively increasing bone density. These nested shells can represent regions starting with the medullary (bone marrow) canal, up through and including the outer surface of the bone. Findings The Matryoshka approach introduced can be used to generate accurate models of heterogeneous materials in an automated fashion, avoiding the challenge of hand-creating an assembly model for input to multi-material additive or subtractive manufacturing. Originality/Value This paper presents a new method for describing heterogeneous materials: in this case, the density distribution in a human bone. The authors show how the Matryoshka model can be used to plan harvesting locations for creating custom rapid allograft bone implants from donor bone. An implementation of a proposed harvesting method is demonstrated, followed by a case study using subtractive rapid prototyping to harvest a bone implant from a human tibia surrogate. PMID:26120277

Habitat prioritization across large landscapes, multiple seasons, and novel areas: an example using greater sage-grouse in Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fedy, Bradley C.; Doherty, Kevin E.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael S.; Beck, Jeffrey L.; Bedrosian, Bryan; Gummer, David; Holloran, Matthew J.; Johnson, Gregory D.; Kaczor, Nicholas W.; Kirol, Christopher P.; Mandich, Cheryl A.; Marshall, David; McKee, Gwyn; Olson, Chad; Pratt, Aaron C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Walker, Brett L.

2014-01-01

Animal habitat selection is an important and expansive area of research in ecology. In particular, the study of habitat selection is critical in habitat prioritization efforts for species of conservation concern. Landscape planning for species is happening at ever-increasing extents because of the appreciation for the role of landscape-scale patterns in species persistence coupled to improved datasets for species and habitats, and the expanding and intensifying footprint of human land uses on the landscape. We present a large-scale collaborative effort to develop habitat selection models across large landscapes and multiple seasons for prioritizing habitat for a species of conservation concern. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus, hereafter sage-grouse) occur in western semi-arid landscapes in North America. Range-wide population declines of this species have been documented, and it is currently considered as “warranted but precluded” from listing under the United States Endangered Species Act. Wyoming is predicted to remain a stronghold for sage-grouse populations and contains approximately 37% of remaining birds. We compiled location data from 14 unique radiotelemetry studies (data collected 1994–2010) and habitat data from high-quality, biologically relevant, geographic information system (GIS) layers across Wyoming. We developed habitat selection models for greater sage-grouse across Wyoming for 3 distinct life stages: 1) nesting, 2) summer, and 3) winter. We developed patch and landscape models across 4 extents, producing statewide and regional (southwest, central, northeast) models for Wyoming. Habitat selection varied among regions and seasons, yet preferred habitat attributes generally matched the extensive literature on sage-grouse seasonal habitat requirements. Across seasons and regions, birds preferred areas with greater percentage sagebrush cover and avoided paved roads, agriculture, and forested areas. Birds consistently preferred areas with higher precipitation in the summer and avoided rugged terrain in the winter. Selection for sagebrush cover varied regionally with stronger selection in the Northeast region, likely because of limited availability, whereas avoidance of paved roads was fairly consistent across regions. We chose resource selection function (RSF) thresholds for each model set (seasonal × regional combination) that delineated important seasonal habitats for sage-grouse. Each model set showed good validation and discriminatory capabilities within study-site boundaries. We applied the nesting-season models to a novel area not included in model development. The percentage of independent nest locations that fell directly within identified important habitat was not overly impressive in the novel area (49%); however, including a 500-m buffer around important habitat captured 98% of independent nest locations within the novel area. We also used leks and associated peak male counts as a proxy for nesting habitat outside of the study sites used to develop the models. A 1.5-km buffer around the important nesting habitat boundaries included 77% of males counted at leks in Wyoming outside of the study sites. Data were not available to quantitatively test the performance of the summer and winter models outside our study sites. The collection of models presented here represents large-scale resource-management planning tools that are a significant advancement to previous tools in terms of spatial and temporal resolution.

Nested-grid simulation of mercury over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Jaeglé, L.; van Donkelaar, A.; Martin, R. V.; Holmes, C. D.; Amos, H. M.; Wang, Q.; Talbot, R.; Artz, R.; Brooks, S.; Luke, W.; Holsen, T. M.; Felton, D.; Miller, E. K.; Perry, K. D.; Schmeltz, D.; Steffen, A.; Tordon, R.; Weiss-Penzias, P.; Zsolway, R.

2012-01-01

We have developed a new high-resolution (1/2° latitude by 2/3° longitude) nested-grid mercury (Hg) simulation over North America employing the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model. Emissions, chemistry, deposition, and meteorology are self-consistent between the global and nested domains. Compared to the global model (4° latitude by 5° longitude), the nested model shows improved skill at capturing the high spatial and temporal variability of Hg wet deposition over North America observed by the Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) in 2008-2009. The nested simulation resolves features such as land/ocean contrast and higher deposition due to orographic precipitation, and predicts more efficient convective rain scavenging of Hg over the southeast United States. However, the nested model overestimates Hg wet deposition over the Ohio River Valley region (ORV) by 27%. We modify anthropogenic emission speciation profiles in the US EPA National Emission Inventory (NEI) to account for the rapid in-plume reduction of reactive to elemental Hg (IPR simulation). This leads to a decrease in the model bias to +3% over the ORV region. Over the contiguous US, the correlation coefficient (r) between MDN observations and our IPR simulation increases from 0.63 to 0.78. The IPR nested simulation generally reproduces the seasonal cycle in surface concentrations of speciated Hg from the Atmospheric Mercury Network (AMNet) and Canadian Atmospheric Mercury Network (CAMNet). In the IPR simulation, annual mean reactive gaseous and particulate-bound Hg are within 80% and 10% of observations, respectively. In contrast, the simulation with unmodified anthropogenic Hg speciation profiles overestimates these observations by factors of 2 to 4. The nested model shows improved skill at capturing the horizontal variability of Hg observed over California during the ARCTAS aircraft campaign. We find that North American anthropogenic emissions account for 10-22% of Hg wet deposition flux over the US, depending on the anthropogenic emissions speciation profile assumed. The percent contribution can be as high as 60% near large point emission sources in ORV. The contribution for the dry deposition is 13-20%.

Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Worrell, Ruben

2010-01-01

The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger is shown.

Identifying Kittlitz's Murrelet nesting habitat in North America at the landscape scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Felis, Jonathan J.; Kissling, Michelle L.; Kaler, Robb S.A.; Kenney, Leah A.; Lawonn, Matthew J.

2016-01-01

The Kittlitz's Murrelet (Brachyramphus brevirostris) is a small, non-colonial seabird endemic to marine waters of Alaska and eastern Russia that may have experienced significant population decline in recent decades, in part because of low reproductive success and terrestrial threats. Although recent studies have shed new light on Kittlitz's Murrelet nesting habitat in a few discrete areas, the location and extent of suitable nesting habitat throughout most of its range remains unclear. Here, we have compiled all existing nest records and locations to identify landscape-scale parameters (distance to coast, elevation, slope, and land cover) that provide potential nesting habitat in four regions: northern Alaska, Aleutian Islands, Alaska Peninsula Mountains and Kodiak Island, and Pacific Coastal Mountains (including nearshore interior Canada). We produced a final map classifying 12% (70,411 km2) of the lands assessed as potential Kittlitz's Murrelet nesting habitat, with dense but distinct patches in northern Alaska and a more uninterrupted, narrow band extending across the Pacific Coastal Mountains, Alaska Peninsula Mountains, and Aleutian Islands. The extent of habitat-capable parameter values varied regionally, indicating that the Kittlitz's Murrelet may be able to use a variety of habitats for nesting, depending on availability. Future nesting habitat studies could employ spatially random sampling designs to allow for quantitatively robust modeling of nesting habitat and predictive extrapolation to areas where nests have not been located but likely exist.

The influence of regional hydrology on nesting behavior and nest fate of the American alligator

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ugarte, Cristina A.; Bass, Oron L.; Nuttle, William; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Rice, Kenneth G.; Fujisaki, Ikuko; Whelan, Kevin R.T.

2013-01-01

Hydrologic conditions are critical to the nesting behavior and reproductive success of crocodilians. In South Florida, USA, growing human settlement has led to extensive surface water management and modification of historical water flows in the wetlands, which have affected regional nesting of the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis). Although both natural and anthropogenic factors are considered to determine hydrologic conditions, the aspects of hydrological patterns that affect alligator nest effort, flooding (partial and complete), and failure (no hatchling) are unclear. We deconstructed annual hydrological patterns using harmonic models that estimated hydrological matrices including mean, amplitude, timing of peak, and periodicity of surface water depth and discharge and examined their effects on alligator nesting using survey data from Shark Slough, Everglades National Park, from 1985 to 2005. Nest effort increased in years with higher mean and lesser periodicity of water depth. A greater proportion of nests were flooded and failed when peak discharge occurred earlier in the year. Also, nest flooding rates were greater in years with greater periodicity of water depth, and nest failure rate was greater when mean discharge was higher. This study guides future water management decisions to mitigate negative impacts on reproduction of alligators and provides wildlife managers with a tool for assessing and modifying annual water management plans to conserve crocodilians and other wetland species.

Future U.S. ozone projections dependence on regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport and differences in modeling design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Hao; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Lei, Hang; Wuebbles, Donald J.

2016-03-01

A consistent modeling framework with nested global and regional chemical transport models (CTMs) is used to separate and quantitatively assess the relative contributions to projections of future U.S. ozone pollution from the effects of emissions changes, climate change, long-range transport (LRT) of pollutants, and differences in modeling design. After incorporating dynamic lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from a global CTM, a regional CTM's representation of present-day U.S. ozone pollution is notably improved, especially relative to results from the regional CTM with fixed LBCs or from the global CTM alone. This nested system of global and regional CTMs projects substantial surface ozone trends for the 2050's: 6-10 ppb decreases under the 'clean' A1B scenario and ∼15 ppb increases under the 'dirty' A1Fi scenario. Among the total trends of future ozone, regional emissions changes dominate, contributing negative 25-60% in A1B and positive 30-45% in A1Fi. Comparatively, climate change contributes positive 10-30%, while LRT effects through changing chemical LBCs account for positive 15-20% in both scenarios, suggesting introducing dynamic LBCs could influence projections of the U.S. future ozone pollution with a magnitude comparable to effects of climate change alone. The contribution to future ozone projections due to differences in modeling design, including model formulations, emissions treatments, and other factors between the global and the nested regional CTMs, is regionally dependent, ranging from negative 20% to positive 25%. It is shown that the model discrepancies for present-day simulations between global and regional CTMs can propagate into future U.S. ozone projections systematically but nonlinearly, especially in California and the Southeast. Therefore in addition to representations of emissions change and climate change, accurate treatment of LBCs for the regional CTM is essential for projecting the future U.S. ozone pollution.

Duck nest success in the prairie pothole region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klett, A.T.; Shaffer, T.L.; Johnson, D.H.

1988-01-01

We estimated nest success of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), gadwall (A. strepera), blue-winged teal (A. discors), northern shoveler (A. clypeata), and northern pintail (A. acuta) for 5 regions in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota, for 1-3 periods between 1966 and 1984, and for 8 habitat classes. We obtained composite estimates of nest success for regions and periods by weighting each habitat proportional to the number of nest initiations. The distribution of nest initiations was derived from estimates of breeding populations, preferences of species for nesting habitats, and availability of habitats. Nest success rates ranged from < 5 to 36% among regions, periods, and species. Rates were lowest in western Minnesota (MNW) and eastern North Dakota (NDE), intermediate in central North Dakota (NDC) and eastern South Dakota (SDE), and highest in central South Dakota (SDC). In regions with comparable data, no consistent trend in nest success was apparent from early to late periods. Gadwalls and blue-winged teal nested more successfully than mallards and pintails; the relative success of shovelers varied regionally. Ducks nesting in idle grassland were the most successful and those nesting in cropland were least successful. Mammalian predation was the major cause of nesting failure (54-85%) in all habitats, but farming operations resulted in 37 and 27% of the nesting failures in cropland and hayland, respectively. Most of the populations studied were not self-sustaining.

Toward Skillful Subseasonal Prediction of North Atlantic Hurricanes with regionally-refined GFDL HiRAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, K.; Harris, L.; Chen, J. H.; Lin, S. J.

2017-12-01

Skillful subseasonal prediction of hurricane activity (from two weeks to less than a season) is important for early preparedness and reducing the hurricane damage in coastal regions. In this study, we will present evaluations of the performance of GFDL HiRAM (High-Resolution Atmospheric Model) for the simulation and prediction of the North Atlantic hurricane activity on the sub-seasonal time scale. A series of sub-seasonal (30-day duration) retrospective predictions were performed over the years 2000-2014 using two configurations of HiRAM: a) global uniform 25km-resolution grid and b) two-way nested grid with a 8km-resolution nest over North Atlantic. The analysis of hurricane structure from the two sets of simulations indicates the two-way-nesting method is an efficient way to improve the representation of hurricanes in global models: the two-way nested configuration produces realistic hurricane inner-core size and structure, which leads to improved lifetime maximum intensity distribution. Both configurations show very promising performance in the subseasonal hurricane genesis prediction, but the two-way nested configuration shows better performance in the prediction of major hurricane (Categories 3-5) activity because of the improved intensity simulation. We will also present the analysis of how the phase and magnitude of MJO, as well as the initial SST anomaly affect the model's prediction skill.

Development of high-resolution multi-scale modelling system for simulation of coastal-fluvial urban flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comer, Joanne; Indiana Olbert, Agnieszka; Nash, Stephen; Hartnett, Michael

2017-02-01

Urban developments in coastal zones are often exposed to natural hazards such as flooding. In this research, a state-of-the-art, multi-scale nested flood (MSN_Flood) model is applied to simulate complex coastal-fluvial urban flooding due to combined effects of tides, surges and river discharges. Cork city on Ireland's southwest coast is a study case. The flood modelling system comprises a cascade of four dynamically linked models that resolve the hydrodynamics of Cork Harbour and/or its sub-region at four scales: 90, 30, 6 and 2 m. Results demonstrate that the internalization of the nested boundary through the use of ghost cells combined with a tailored adaptive interpolation technique creates a highly dynamic moving boundary that permits flooding and drying of the nested boundary. This novel feature of MSN_Flood provides a high degree of choice regarding the location of the boundaries to the nested domain and therefore flexibility in model application. The nested MSN_Flood model through dynamic downscaling facilitates significant improvements in accuracy of model output without incurring the computational expense of high spatial resolution over the entire model domain. The urban flood model provides full characteristics of water levels and flow regimes necessary for flood hazard identification and flood risk assessment.

Test of High-resolution Global and Regional Climate Model Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenchikov, Georgiy; Nikulin, Grigory; Hansson, Ulf; Kjellström, Erik; Raj, Jerry; Bangalath, Hamza; Osipov, Sergey

2014-05-01

In scope of CORDEX project we have simulated the past (1975-2005) and future (2006-2050) climates using the GFDL global high-resolution atmospheric model (HIRAM) and the Rossby Center nested regional model RCA4 for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Both global and nested runs were performed with roughly the same spatial resolution of 25 km in latitude and longitude, and were driven by the 2°x2.5°-resolution fields from GFDL ESM2M IPCC AR5 runs. The global HIRAM simulations could naturally account for interaction of regional processes with the larger-scale circulation features like Indian Summer Monsoon, which is lacking from regional model setup. Therefore in this study we specifically address the consistency of "global" and "regional" downscalings. The performance of RCA4, HIRAM, and ESM2M is tested based on mean, extreme, trends, seasonal and inter-annual variability of surface temperature, precipitation, and winds. The impact of climate change on dust storm activity, extreme precipitation and water resources is specifically addressed. We found that the global and regional climate projections appear to be quite consistent for the modeled period and differ more significantly from ESM2M than between each other.

The Use of the Regional Navy Coastal Ocean Model (RNCOM) by the US Navy in Operational Oceanography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rayburn, J. T.

2016-02-01

The operational RNCOM is a 1/30° resolution nested model run daily by the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO), Stennis Space Center, Mississippi. Operational RNCOM areas are used in combination with the Global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) to provide full global model coverage with enhanced resolution for temperature, salinity, currents in key areas. This talk will discuss two aspects of RNCOM. First, it will focus on how the model is configured. As a nested model, issues to consider include the source of boundary condition, boundary placement, and observational inputs. Secondly, this talk will focus on the strengths and weaknesses RNCOM demonstrates in accurately characterizing ocean condition with respect to HYCOM and how this regional model's output is used by NAVOCEANO Ocean Forecasters to develop operational forecasts.

Description and Evaluation of IAP-AACM: A Global-regional Aerosol Chemistry Model for the Earth System Model CAS-ESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Y.; Chen, X.

2017-12-01

We present a first description and evaluation of the IAP Atmospheric Aerosol Chemistry Model (IAP-AACM) which has been integrated into the earth system model CAS-ESM. In this way it is possible to research into interaction of clouds and aerosol by its two-way coupling with the IAP Atmospheric General Circulation Model (IAP-AGCM). The model has a nested global-regional grid based on the Global Environmental Atmospheric Transport Model (GEATM) and the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS). The AACM provides two optional gas chemistry schemes, the CBM-Z gas chemistry as well as a sulfur oxidize box designed specifically for the CAS-ESM. Now the model driven by AGCM has been applied to a 1-year simulation of tropospheric chemistry both on global and regional scales for 2014, and been evaluated against various observation datasets, including aerosol precursor gas concentration, aerosol mass and number concentrations. Furthermore, global budgets in AACM are compared with other global aerosol models. Generally, the AACM simulations are within the range of other global aerosol model predictions, and the model has a reasonable agreement with observations of gases and particles concentration both on global and regional scales.

Marine habitat selection by marbled murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus) during the breeding season

Treesearch

Teresa J. Lorenz; Martin G. Raphael; Thomas D. Bloxton; Christian Andrew Hagen

2016-01-01

The marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) is a declining seabird that is wellknown for nesting in coastal old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest. Most studies of habitat selection have focused on modeling terrestrial nesting habitat even though marine habitat is believed to be a major contributor to population declines in some regions....

Spatial analysis of toxic emissions in LCA: a sub-continental nested USEtox model with freshwater archetypes.

PubMed

Kounina, Anna; Margni, Manuele; Shaked, Shanna; Bulle, Cécile; Jolliet, Olivier

2014-08-01

This paper develops continent-specific factors for the USEtox model and analyses the accuracy of different model architectures, spatial scales and archetypes in evaluating toxic impacts, with a focus on freshwater pathways. Inter-continental variation is analysed by comparing chemical fate and intake fractions between sub-continental zones of two life cycle impact assessment models: (1) the nested USEtox model parameterized with sub-continental zones and (2) the spatially differentiated IMPACTWorld model with 17 interconnected sub-continental regions. Substance residence time in water varies by up to two orders of magnitude among the 17 zones assessed with IMPACTWorld and USEtox, and intake fraction varies by up to three orders of magnitude. Despite this variation, the nested USEtox model succeeds in mimicking the results of the spatially differentiated model, with the exception of very persistent volatile pollutants that can be transported to polar regions. Intra-continental variation is analysed by comparing fate and intake fractions modelled with the a-spatial (one box) IMPACT Europe continental model vs. the spatially differentiated version of the same model. Results show that the one box model might overestimate chemical fate and characterisation factors for freshwater eco-toxicity of persistent pollutants by up to three orders of magnitude for point source emissions. Subdividing Europe into three archetypes, based on freshwater residence time (how long it takes water to reach the sea), improves the prediction of fate and intake fractions for point source emissions, bringing them within a factor five compared to the spatial model. We demonstrated that a sub-continental nested model such as USEtox, with continent-specific parameterization complemented with freshwater archetypes, can thus represent inter- and intra-continental spatial variations, whilst minimizing model complexity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Drought and cooler temperatures are associated with higher nest survival in Mountain Plovers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dreitz, V.J.; Conrey, R.Y.; Skagen, S.K.

2012-01-01

Native grasslands have been altered to a greater extent than any other biome in North America. The habitats and resources needed to support breeding performance of grassland birds endemic to prairie ecosystems are currently threatened by land management practices and impending climate change. Climate models for the Great Plains prairie region predict a future of hotter and drier summers with strong multiyear droughts and more frequent and severe precipitation events. We examined how fluctuations in weather conditions in eastern Colorado influenced nest survival of an avian species that has experienced recent population declines, the Mountain Plover (Charadrius montanus). Nest survival averaged 27.2% over a 7-yr period (n = 936 nests) and declined as the breeding season progressed. Nest survival was favored by dry conditions and cooler temperatures. Projected changes in regional precipitation patterns will likely influence nest survival, with positive influences of predicted declines in summer rainfall yet negative effects of more intense rain events. The interplay of climate change and land use practices within prairie ecosystems may result in Mountain Plovers shifting their distribution, changing local abundance, and adjusting fecundity to adapt to their changing environment.

Landscapes for Energy and Wildlife: Conservation Prioritization for Golden Eagles across Large Spatial Scales

PubMed Central

Tack, Jason D.; Fedy, Bradley C.

2015-01-01

Proactive conservation planning for species requires the identification of important spatial attributes across ecologically relevant scales in a model-based framework. However, it is often difficult to develop predictive models, as the explanatory data required for model development across regional management scales is rarely available. Golden eagles are a large-ranging predator of conservation concern in the United States that may be negatively affected by wind energy development. Thus, identifying landscapes least likely to pose conflict between eagles and wind development via shared space prior to development will be critical for conserving populations in the face of imposing development. We used publically available data on golden eagle nests to generate predictive models of golden eagle nesting sites in Wyoming, USA, using a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables. By overlaying predictive models of golden eagle nesting habitat with wind energy resource maps, we highlight areas of potential conflict among eagle nesting habitat and wind development. However, our results suggest that wind potential and the relative probability of golden eagle nesting are not necessarily spatially correlated. Indeed, the majority of our sample frame includes areas with disparate predictions between suitable nesting habitat and potential for developing wind energy resources. Map predictions cannot replace on-the-ground monitoring for potential risk of wind turbines on wildlife populations, though they provide industry and managers a useful framework to first assess potential development. PMID:26262876

Landscapes for energy and wildlife: conservation prioritization for golden eagles across large spatial scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tack, Jason D.; Fedy, Bradley C.

2015-01-01

Proactive conservation planning for species requires the identification of important spatial attributes across ecologically relevant scales in a model-based framework. However, it is often difficult to develop predictive models, as the explanatory data required for model development across regional management scales is rarely available. Golden eagles are a large-ranging predator of conservation concern in the United States that may be negatively affected by wind energy development. Thus, identifying landscapes least likely to pose conflict between eagles and wind development via shared space prior to development will be critical for conserving populations in the face of imposing development. We used publically available data on golden eagle nests to generate predictive models of golden eagle nesting sites in Wyoming, USA, using a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables. By overlaying predictive models of golden eagle nesting habitat with wind energy resource maps, we highlight areas of potential conflict among eagle nesting habitat and wind development. However, our results suggest that wind potential and the relative probability of golden eagle nesting are not necessarily spatially correlated. Indeed, the majority of our sample frame includes areas with disparate predictions between suitable nesting habitat and potential for developing wind energy resources. Map predictions cannot replace on-the-ground monitoring for potential risk of wind turbines on wildlife populations, though they provide industry and managers a useful framework to first assess potential development.

Landscapes for Energy and Wildlife: Conservation Prioritization for Golden Eagles across Large Spatial Scales.

PubMed

Tack, Jason D; Fedy, Bradley C

2015-01-01

Proactive conservation planning for species requires the identification of important spatial attributes across ecologically relevant scales in a model-based framework. However, it is often difficult to develop predictive models, as the explanatory data required for model development across regional management scales is rarely available. Golden eagles are a large-ranging predator of conservation concern in the United States that may be negatively affected by wind energy development. Thus, identifying landscapes least likely to pose conflict between eagles and wind development via shared space prior to development will be critical for conserving populations in the face of imposing development. We used publically available data on golden eagle nests to generate predictive models of golden eagle nesting sites in Wyoming, USA, using a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables. By overlaying predictive models of golden eagle nesting habitat with wind energy resource maps, we highlight areas of potential conflict among eagle nesting habitat and wind development. However, our results suggest that wind potential and the relative probability of golden eagle nesting are not necessarily spatially correlated. Indeed, the majority of our sample frame includes areas with disparate predictions between suitable nesting habitat and potential for developing wind energy resources. Map predictions cannot replace on-the-ground monitoring for potential risk of wind turbines on wildlife populations, though they provide industry and managers a useful framework to first assess potential development.

A description and evaluation of an air quality model nested within global and regional composition-climate models using MetUM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neal, Lucy S.; Dalvi, Mohit; Folberth, Gerd; McInnes, Rachel N.; Agnew, Paul; O'Connor, Fiona M.; Savage, Nicholas H.; Tilbee, Marie

2017-11-01

There is a clear need for the development of modelling frameworks for both climate change and air quality to help inform policies for addressing these issues simultaneously. This paper presents an initial attempt to develop a single modelling framework, by introducing a greater degree of consistency in the meteorological modelling framework by using a two-step, one-way nested configuration of models, from a global composition-climate model (GCCM) (140 km resolution) to a regional composition-climate model covering Europe (RCCM) (50 km resolution) and finally to a high (12 km) resolution model over the UK (AQUM). The latter model is used to produce routine air quality forecasts for the UK. All three models are based on the Met Office's Unified Model (MetUM). In order to better understand the impact of resolution on the downscaling of projections of future climate and air quality, we have used this nest of models to simulate a 5-year period using present-day emissions and under present-day climate conditions. We also consider the impact of running the higher-resolution model with higher spatial resolution emissions, rather than simply regridding emissions from the RCCM. We present an evaluation of the models compared to in situ air quality observations over the UK, plus a comparison against an independent 1 km resolution gridded dataset, derived from a combination of modelling and observations, effectively producing an analysis of annual mean surface pollutant concentrations. We show that using a high-resolution model over the UK has some benefits in improving air quality modelling, but that the use of higher spatial resolution emissions is important to capture local variations in concentrations, particularly for primary pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide. For secondary pollutants such as ozone and the secondary component of PM10, the benefits of a higher-resolution nested model are more limited and reasons for this are discussed. This study highlights the point that the resolution of models is not the only factor in determining model performance - consistency between nested models is also important.

Determination of the extra buffering distance in the one-way nesting procedure for the regional ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, Jin Hwan; Pham, Van Sy

2017-04-01

The Big-Brother Experiment (BBE) evaluates the effect of domain size on the ocean regional circulation model (ORCMs) in the downscaling and nesting from the ocean global circulation (OGCMs). The BBE first establishes a mimic ocean global circulation models (M-OGCMs) data and employs a ORCM to simulate for a highly resolved large domain. This M-OGCM's results were then filtered to remove short scales then used for boundary and initial conditions of the nested ORCMs, which have the same resolution to the M-OGCMs. The various sizes of domain were embedded in the M-OGCMs and the cases were simulated to see the effect of domain size with the extra buffering distance to the results of the ORCMs. The diagnostic variables including temperature, salinity and vorticity of the nested domain are then compared with those of the M-OGCMs before filtering. Differences between them can address the errors associating with the sizes of the domain, which are not attributed unambiguously to models errors or observational errors. The results showed that domain size significantly impacts on the results of ORCMs. As the domain size of the ORCM becomes lager, the distance of the extra space between the area of interest and the updated LBCs increases. So, the results of ORCMs perform more highly correlated with the M-OGCM. But, there are a certain optimal sizes of the OGCMs, which could be larger than nested ORCMs' domain size from 2 to 10 times, depending on the computational costs. Key words: domain size, error, ocean regional circulation model, Big-Brother Experiment. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by grants from the Korean Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries entitled "Development of integrated estuarine management system" and a National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) Grant (No. 2015R1A5A 7037372) funded by MSIP of Korea. The authors thank the Integrated Research Institute of Construction and Environmental Engineering of Seoul National University for administrative support.

Sensitivity studies of high-resolution RegCM3 simulations of precipitation over the European Alps: the effect of lateral boundary conditions and domain size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadeem, Imran; Formayer, Herbert

2016-11-01

A suite of high-resolution (10 km) simulations were performed with the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) to study the effect of various lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), domain size, and intermediate domains on simulated precipitation over the Great Alpine Region. The boundary conditions used were ECMWF ERA-Interim Reanalysis with grid spacing 0.75∘, the ECMWF ERA-40 Reanalysis with grid spacing 1.125 and 2.5∘, and finally the 2.5∘ NCEP/DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis. The model was run in one-way nesting mode with direct nesting of the high-resolution RCM (horizontal grid spacing Δx = 10 km) with driving reanalysis, with one intermediate resolution nest (Δx = 30 km) between high-resolution RCM and reanalysis forcings, and also with two intermediate resolution nests (Δx = 90 km and Δx = 30 km) for simulations forced with LBC of resolution 2.5∘. Additionally, the impact of domain size was investigated. The results of multiple simulations were evaluated using different analysis techniques, e.g., Taylor diagram and a newly defined useful statistical parameter, called Skill-Score, for evaluation of daily precipitation simulated by the model. It has been found that domain size has the major impact on the results, while different resolution and versions of LBCs, e.g., 1.125∘ ERA40 and 0.7∘ ERA-Interim, do not produce significantly different results. It is also noticed that direct nesting with reasonable domain size, seems to be the most adequate method for reproducing precipitation over complex terrain, while introducing intermediate resolution nests seems to deteriorate the results.

Improved simulation of tropospheric ozone by a global-multi-regional two-way coupling model system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Y.; Lin, J.; Hu, L.; Chen, J.

2016-12-01

Small-scale nonlinear chemical and physical processes over pollution source regions affect the tropospheric ozone, but these processes are not captured by current global chemical transport models and chemistry-climate models that are limited by coarse horizontal resolutions. These models tend to contain large (and mostly positive) tropospheric O3 biases in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we use a recently built two-way coupling system of the GEOS-Chem CTM to simulate the regional and global tropospheric O3in 2009. The system couples the global model (at 2.5º long. x 2º lat.) and its three nested models (at 0.667º long. x 0.5º lat.) covering Asia, North America and Europe, respectively. Specifically, the nested models take lateral boundary conditions from the global model, better capture small-scale processes, and feed back to modify the global model simulation within the nested domains, with a subsequent effect on their LBCs. Compared to the global model alone, the two-way coupled system better simulates the tropospheric O3 both within and outside the nested domains, as found by evaluation against a suite of ground (1420 sites from WDCGG, GMD, EMEP, and AQS), aircraft (HIPPO and MOZAIC), and satellite measurements (two OMI products). The two-way coupled simulation enhances the correlation in day-to-day variation of afternoon mean surface O3 with the ground measurements from 0.53 to 0.68, and it reduces the mean model bias from 10.8 to 6.7 ppb. Regionally, the coupled system reduces the bias by 4.6 ppb over Europe, 3.9 ppb over North America, and 3.1 ppb over other regions. The two-way coupling brings O3vertical profiles much closer to the HIPPO (for remote areas) and MOZAIC (for polluted regions) data, reducing the tropospheric mean bias by 3-10 ppb at most MOZAIC sites and by 5.3 ppb for HIPPO profiles. The two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric column ozone by 3.0 DU (9.5%, annual mean), bringing them closer to the OMI data in all seasons. Additionally, the two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric mean hydroxyl radical by 5% with improved estimates of methyl chloroform and methane lifetimes. Simulation improvements are more significant in the Northern Hemisphere, and are mainly driven by improved representation of spatial inhomogeneity in chemistry/emissions.

Gulf of California Response to Hurricane Juliette

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

desert. J. Geophys. Res. 109, C03043. doi:10.1029/2003JC001938. Barth, A., Alvera -Azcárate, A., Weisberg, R.H., 2008a. A nested model study of the Loop...Current generated variability and its impact on the West Florida Shelf. J. Geophys. Res. 113, C05009. doi:10.1029/2007JC004492. Barth, A., Alvera ...C08033. doi:10.1029/2007JC004585. Barth, A., Alvera -Azcárate, A., Weisberg, R.H., 2008c. Benefit of nesting a regional model into a large-scale ocean model

Patch size and landscape effects on density and nesting success of grassland birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winter, Maiken; Johnson, Douglas H.; Shaffer, Jill A.; Donovan, Therese M.; Svedarsky, W. Daniel

2006-01-01

Current management recommendations for grassland birds in North America emphasize providing large patches of grassland habitat within landscapes that have few forest or shrubland areas. These Bird Conservation Areas are being proposed under the assumption that large patches of habitat in treeless landscapes will maintain viable populations of grassland birds. This assumption requires that patch size and landscape features affect density and nesting success of grassland birds, and that these effects are consistent among years and regions and across focal species. However, these assumptions have not yet been validated for grassland birds, and the relative importance of local vegetation structure, patch size, and landscape composition on grassland bird populations is not well known. In addition, factors influencing grassland bird nesting success have been investigated mostly in small-scale and short-duration studies. To develop management guidelines for grassland birds, we tested the spatial and temporal repeatability of the influence of patch size and landscape composition on density and nesting success of 3 grassland passerines, after controlling for local-scale vegetation structure, climate, and—when analyzing nest success—bird density. We conducted our study during 4 years (1998–2001) in 44 study plots that were set up in 3 regions of the northern tallgrass prairie in Minnesota and North Dakota, USA. In these study plots we measured density and nesting success of clay-colored sparrows (Spizella pallida), Savannah sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis), and bobolinks (Dolichonyx oryzivorus). Statistical models indicated that density was influenced by patch size, landscape, region, and local vegetation structure more so than by local vegetation structure alone. Both magnitude and direction of the response of density to patch size varied among regions, years, and species. In contrast, the direction of landscape effects was consistent among regions, years, and between Savannah sparrows and bobolinks. In each species, this landscape effect was independent of patch size. Nesting success was not clearly influenced by patch size or landscape composition, and none of the factors that influenced avian density also influenced nesting success in any of the 3 species. General statements on “optimal habitat” for grassland birds should therefore be viewed cautiously. Instead, long-term studies in different regions as well as a deeper understanding of the local system are needed to determine which factors are most important for grassland birds in a particular area.

Acceleration of image-based resolution modelling reconstruction using an expectation maximization nested algorithm.

PubMed

Angelis, G I; Reader, A J; Markiewicz, P J; Kotasidis, F A; Lionheart, W R; Matthews, J C

2013-08-07

Recent studies have demonstrated the benefits of a resolution model within iterative reconstruction algorithms in an attempt to account for effects that degrade the spatial resolution of the reconstructed images. However, these algorithms suffer from slower convergence rates, compared to algorithms where no resolution model is used, due to the additional need to solve an image deconvolution problem. In this paper, a recently proposed algorithm, which decouples the tomographic and image deconvolution problems within an image-based expectation maximization (EM) framework, was evaluated. This separation is convenient, because more computational effort can be placed on the image deconvolution problem and therefore accelerate convergence. Since the computational cost of solving the image deconvolution problem is relatively small, multiple image-based EM iterations do not significantly increase the overall reconstruction time. The proposed algorithm was evaluated using 2D simulations, as well as measured 3D data acquired on the high-resolution research tomograph. Results showed that bias reduction can be accelerated by interleaving multiple iterations of the image-based EM algorithm solving the resolution model problem, with a single EM iteration solving the tomographic problem. Significant improvements were observed particularly for voxels that were located on the boundaries between regions of high contrast within the object being imaged and for small regions of interest, where resolution recovery is usually more challenging. Minor differences were observed using the proposed nested algorithm, compared to the single iteration normally performed, when an optimal number of iterations are performed for each algorithm. However, using the proposed nested approach convergence is significantly accelerated enabling reconstruction using far fewer tomographic iterations (up to 70% fewer iterations for small regions). Nevertheless, the optimal number of nested image-based EM iterations is hard to be defined and it should be selected according to the given application.

Procedures for offline grid nesting in regional ocean models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mason, Evan; Molemaker, Jeroen; Shchepetkin, Alexander F.; Colas, Francois; McWilliams, James C.; Sangrà, Pablo

One-way offline nesting of a primitive-equation regional ocean numerical model (ROMS) is investigated, with special attention to the boundary forcing file creation process. The model has a modified open boundary condition which minimises false wave reflections, and is optimised to utilise high-frequency boundary updates. The model configuration features a previously computed solution which supplies boundary forcing data to an interior domain with an increased grid resolution. At the open boundaries of the interior grid (the child) the topography is matched to that of the outer grid (the parent), over a narrow transition region. A correction is applied to the normal baroclinic and barotropic velocities at the open boundaries of the child to ensure volume conservation. It is shown that these steps, together with a carefully constructed interpolation of the parent data, lead to a high-quality child solution, with minimal artifacts such as persistent rim currents and wave reflections at the boundaries. Sensitivity experiments provide information about the robustness of the model open boundary condition to perturbations in the surface wind stress forcing field, to the perturbation of the volume conservation enforcement in the boundary forcing, and to perturbation of the vertical density structure in the boundary forcing. This knowledge is important when extending the nesting technique to include external data from alien sources, such as ocean models with physics and/or numerics different from ROMS, or from observed climatologies of temperature, salinity and sea level.

MAGNETIC FIELD OF THE VELA C MOLECULAR CLOUD

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kusune, Takayoshi; Sugitani, Koji; Nakamura, Fumitaka

We have performed extensive near-infrared ( JHK {sub s}) imaging polarimetry toward the Vela C molecular cloud, which covers the five high-density sub-regions (North, Centre-Ridge, Centre-Nest, South-Ridge, and South-Nest) with distinct morphological characteristics. The obtained polarization vector map shows that three of these sub-regions have distinct plane-of-the-sky (POS) magnetic-field characteristics according to the morphological characteristics. (1) In the Centre-Ridge sub-region, a dominating ridge, the POS magnetic field is mostly perpendicular to the ridge. (2) In the Centre-Nest sub-region, a structure having a slightly extended nest of filaments, the POS magnetic field is nearly parallel to its global elongation. (3) Inmore » the South-Nest sub-region, which has a network of small filaments, the POS magnetic field appears to be chaotic. By applying the Chandrasekhar–Fermi method, we derived the POS magnetic field strength as ∼70–310 μ G in the Centre-Ridge, Centre-Nest, and South-Ridge sub-regions. In the South-Nest sub-region, the dispersion of polarization angles is too large to apply the C-F method. Because the velocity dispersion in this sub-region is not greater than those in the other sub-regions, we suggest that the magnetic field in this sub-region is weaker than those in other sub-regions. We also discuss the relationship between the POS magnetic field (configuration and strength) and the cloud structure of each sub-region.« less

Nest-site selection and nest success of an Arctic-breeding passerine, Smith's Longspur, in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

McFarland, Heather R.; Kendall, Steve J.; Powell, Abby

2017-01-01

Despite changes in shrub cover and weather patterns associated with climate change in the Arctic, little is known about the breeding requirements of most passerines tied to northern regions. We investigated the nesting biology and nest habitat characteristics of Smith's Longspurs (Calcarius pictus) in 2 study areas in the Brooks Range of Alaska, USA. First, we examined variation in nesting phenology in relation to local temperatures. We then characterized nesting habitat and analyzed nest-site selection for a subset of nests (n = 86) in comparison with paired random points. Finally, we estimated the daily survival rate of 257 nests found in 2007–2013 with respect to both habitat characteristics and weather variables. Nest initiation was delayed in years with snow events, heavy rain, and freezing temperatures early in the breeding season. Nests were typically found in open, low-shrub tundra, and never among tall shrubs (mean shrub height at nests = 26.8 ± 6.7 cm). We observed weak nest-site selection patterns. Considering the similarity between nest sites and paired random points, coupled with the unique social mating system of Smith's Longspurs, we suggest that habitat selection may occur at the neighborhood scale and not at the nest-site scale. The best approximating model explaining nest survival suggested a positive relationship with the numbers of days above 21°C that an individual nest experienced; there was little support for models containing habitat variables. The daily nest survival rate was high (0.972–0.982) compared with that of most passerines in forested or grassland habitats, but similar to that of passerines nesting on tundra. Considering their high nesting success and ability to delay nest initiation during inclement weather, Smith's Longspurs may be resilient to predicted changes in weather regimes on the breeding grounds. Thus, the greatest threat to breeding Smith's Longspurs associated with climate change may be the loss of low-shrub habitat types, which could significantly change the characteristics of breeding areas.

Detection of Talaromyces marneffei from Fresh Tissue of an Inhalational Murine Pulmonary Model Using Nested PCR

PubMed Central

Liu, Yinghui; Huang, Xiaowen; Yi, Xiuwen; He, Ya; Mylonakis, Eleftherios; Xi, Liyan

2016-01-01

Penicilliosis marneffei, often consecutive to the aspiration of Talaromyces marneffei (Penicillium marneffei), continues to be one of the significant causes of morbidity and mortality in immunocompromised patients in endemic regions such as Southeast Asia. Improving the accuracy of diagnosing this disease would aid in reducing the mortality of associated infections. In this study, we developed a stable and reproducible murine pulmonary model that mimics human penicilliosis marneffei using a nebulizer to deliver Talaromyces marneffei (SUMS0152) conidia to the lungs of BALB/c nude mice housed in exposure chamber. Using this model, we further revealed that nested PCR was sensitive and specific for detecting Talaromyces marneffei in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid and fresh tissues. This inhalation model may provide a more representative analysis tool for studying the development of penicilliosis marneffei, in addition to revealing that nested PCR has a predictive value in reflecting pulmonary infection. PMID:26886887

Estimates of vital rates for a declining loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) subpopulation: implications for management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamont, Margaret M.; Fujisaki, Ikuko; Carthy, Raymond R.

2014-01-01

Because subpopulations can differ geographically, genetically and/or phenotypically, using data from one subpopulation to derive vital rates for another, while often unavoidable, is not optimal. We used a two-state open robust design model to analyze a 14-year dataset (1998–2011) from the St. Joseph Peninsula, Florida (USA; 29.748°, −85.400°) which is the densest loggerhead (Caretta caretta) nesting beach in the Northern Gulf of Mexico subpopulation. For these analyses, 433 individuals were marked of which only 7.2 % were observed re-nesting in the study area in subsequent years during the study period. Survival was estimated at 0.86 and is among the highest estimates for all subpopulations in the Northwest Atlantic population. The robust model estimated a nesting assemblage size that ranged from 32 to 230 individuals each year with an annual average of 110. The model estimates indicated an overall population decline of 17 %. The results presented here for this nesting group represent the first estimates for this subpopulation. These data provide managers with information specific to this subpopulation that can be used to develop recovery plans and conduct subpopulation-specific modeling exercises explicit to the challenges faced by turtles nesting in this region.

Enclosed nests may provide greater thermal than nest predation benefits compared with open nests across latitudes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Thomas E.; Boyce, Andy J.; Fierro-Calderon, Karolina; Mitchell, Adam E.; Armstad, Connor E.; Mouton, James C.; Bin Soudi, Evertius E.

2017-01-01

Nest structure is thought to provide benefits that have fitness consequences for several taxa. Traditionally, reduced nest predation has been considered the primary benefit underlying evolution of nest structure, whereas thermal benefits have been considered a secondary or even non-existent factor. Yet, the relative roles of these factors on nest structures remain largely unexplored.Enclosed nests have a constructed or natural roof connected to sides that allow a restricted opening or tube entrance that provides cover in all directions except the entrance, whereas open nests are cups or platforms that are open above. We show that construction of enclosed nests is more common among songbirds (Passeriformes) in tropical and southern hemisphere regions than in north temperate regions. This geographic pattern may reflect selection from predation risk, under long-standing assumptions that nest predation rates are higher in southern regions and that enclosed nests reduce predation risk compared with open cup nests. We therefore compared nest predation rates between enclosed vs. open nests in 114 songbird species that do not nest in tree holes among five communities of coexisting birds, and for 205 non-hole-nesting species from the literature, across northern temperate, tropical, and southern hemisphere regions.Among coexisting species, enclosed nests had lower nest predation rates than open nests in two south temperate sites, but not in either of two tropical sites or a north temperate site. Nest predation did not differ between nest types at any latitude based on literature data. Among 319 species from both our field studies and the literature, enclosed nests did not show consistent benefits of reduced predation and, in fact, predation was not consistently higher in the tropics, contrary to long-standing perspectives.Thermal benefits of enclosed nests were indicated based on three indirect results. First, species that built enclosed nests were smaller than species using open nests both among coexisting species and among species from the literature. Smaller species lose heat fastest and thereby may gain important thermal benefits from reduced convective cooling. Second, eggs were warmed by parents for less time in species with enclosed nests, as can be expected if egg cooling rates are slower. Finally, species using enclosed nests exhibited enhanced growth of mass and wings compared with species using open nests, suggesting reduced thermoregulatory costs allowed increased energy for growth.Enclosed nests may therefore provide more consistent thermal than nest predation benefits, counter to long-standing perspectives.

Sound absorption of a new oblique-section acoustic metamaterial with nested resonator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Nansha; Hou, Hong; Zhang, Yanni; Wu, Jiu Hui

2018-02-01

This study designs and investigates high-efficiency sound absorption of new oblique-section nested resonators. Impedance tube experiment results show that different combinations of oblique-section nest resonators have tunable low-frequency bandwidth characteristics. The sound absorption mechanism is due to air friction losses in the slotted region and the sample structure resonance. The acousto-electric analogy model demonstrates that the sound absorption peak and bandwidth can be modulated over an even wider frequency range by changing the geometric size and combinations of structures. The proposed structure can be easily fabricated and used in low-frequency sound absorption applications.

Downscaling ocean conditions with application to the Gulf of Maine, Scotian Shelf and adjacent deep ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katavouta, Anna; Thompson, Keith

2017-04-01

A high resolution regional model (1/36 degree) of the Gulf of Maine, Scotian Shelf and adjacent deep ocean (GoMSS) is developed to downscale ocean conditions from an existing global operational system. First, predictions from the regional GoMSS model in a one-way nesting set up are evaluated using observations from multiple sources including satellite-borne sensors of surface temperature and sea level, CTDs, Argo floats and moored current meters. It is shown that on the shelf, the regional model predicts more realistic fields than the global system because it has higher resolution and includes tides that are absent from the global system. However, in deep water the regional model misplaces deep ocean eddies and meanders associated with the Gulf Stream. This is because of unrealistic internally generated variability (associated with the one-way nesting set up) that leads to decoupling of the regional model from the global system in the deep water. To overcome this problem, the large scales (length scales > 90 km) of the regional model are spectrally nudged towards the global system fields. This leads to more realistic predictions off the shelf. Wavenumber spectra show that even though spectral nudging constrains the large scales, it does not suppress the variability on small scales; on the contrary, it favours the formation of eddies with length scales below the cut-off wavelength of the spectral nudging.

Daily survival rate and habitat characteristics of nests of Wilson's Plover

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zinsser, Elizabeth; Sanders, Felicia J.; Gerard, Patrick D.; Jodice, Patrick G.R.

2017-01-01

We assessed habitat characteristics and measured daily survival rate of 72 nests of Charadrius wilsonia (Wilson's Plover) during 2012 and 2013 on South Island and Sand Island on the central coast of South Carolina. At both study areas, nest sites were located at slightly higher elevations (i.e., small platforms of sand) relative to randomly selected nearby unused sites, and nests at each study area also appeared to be situated to enhance crypsis and/or vigilance. Daily survival rate (DSR) of nests ranged from 0.969 to 0.988 among study sites and years, and the probability of nest survival ranged from 0.405 to 0.764. Flooding and predation were the most common causes of nest failure at both sites. At South Island, DSR was most strongly related to maximum tide height, which suggests that flooding and overwash may be common causes of nest loss for Wilson's Plovers at these study sites. The difference in model results between the 2 nearby study sites may be partially due to more-frequent flooding at Sand Island because of some underlying yet unmeasured physiographic feature. Remaining data gaps for the species include regional assessments of nest and chick survival and habitat requirements during chick rearing.

Influence of Lake Malawi on regional climate from a double-nested regional climate model experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diallo, Ismaïla; Giorgi, Filippo; Stordal, Frode

2017-07-01

We evaluate the performance of the regional climate model (RCM) RegCM4 coupled to a one dimensional lake model for Lake Malawi (also known as Lake Nyasa in Tanzania and Lago Niassa in Mozambique) in simulating the main characteristics of rainfall and near surface air temperature patterns over the region. We further investigate the impact of the lake on the simulated regional climate. Two RCM simulations, one with and one without Lake Malawi, are performed for the period 1992-2008 at a grid spacing of 10 km by nesting the model within a corresponding 25 km resolution run ("mother domain") encompassing all Southern Africa. The performance of the model in simulating the mean seasonal patterns of near surface air temperature and precipitation is good compared with previous applications of this model. The temperature biases are generally less than 2.5 °C, while the seasonal cycle of precipitation over the region matches observations well. Moreover, the one-dimensional lake model reproduces fairly well the geographical pattern of observed (from satellite measurements) lake surface temperature as well as its mean month-to-month evolution. The Malawi Lake-effects on the moisture and atmospheric circulation of the surrounding region result in an increase of water vapor mixing ratio due to increased evaporation in the presence of the lake, which combines with enhanced rising motions and low-level moisture convergence to yield a significant precipitation increase over the lake and neighboring areas during the whole austral summer rainy season.

SMARTINIT DOWNSCALING GRAPHICS

Science.gov Websites

Month: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Day: 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 first prev next last SMARTINIT Verification NAM VS NEST Graphics MMB web site Model Type: PROD vs PARA DNG Plot Type: Comparison maps Difference plots Region: CONUS Nest 2.5 km South West U.S. New York, NY

Nesting ecology and nest survival of lesser prairie-chickens on the Southern High Plains of Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grisham, Blake A.; Borsdorf, Philip K.; Boal, Clint W.; Boydston, Kathy K.

2014-01-01

The decline in population and range of lesser prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) throughout the central and southern Great Plains has raised concerns considering their candidate status under the United States Endangered Species Act. Baseline ecological data for lesser prairie-chickens are limited, especially for the shinnery oak-grassland communities of Texas. This information is imperative because lesser prairie-chickens in shinnery oak grasslands occur at the extreme southwestern edge of their distribution. This geographic region is characterized by hot, arid climates, less fragmentation, and less anthropogenic development than within the remaining core distribution of the species. Thus, large expanses of open rangeland with less anthropogenic development and a climate that is classified as extreme for ground nesting birds may subsequently influence nest ecology, nest survival, and nest site selection differently compared to the rest of the distribution of the species. We investigated the nesting ecology of 50 radio-tagged lesser prairie-chicken hens from 2008 to 2011 in the shinnery oak-grassland communities in west Texas and found a substantial amount of inter-annual variation in incubation start date and percent of females incubating nests. Prairie-chickens were less likely to nest near unimproved roads and utility poles and in areas with more bare ground and litter. In contrast, hens selected areas dominated by grasses and shrubs and close to stock tanks to nest. Candidate models including visual obstruction best explained daily nest survival; a 5% increase in visual obstruction improved nest survival probability by 10%. The model-averaged probability of a nest surviving the incubation period was 0.43 (SE = 0.006; 95% CI: 0.23, 0.56). Our findings indicate that lesser prairie-chicken reproduction during our study period was dynamic and was correlated with seasonal weather patterns that ultimately promoted greater grass growth earlier in the nesting season that provided visual obstruction from predators.

Tropospheric carbon monoxide over the Pacific during HIPPO: two-way coupled simulation of GEOS-Chem and its multiple nested models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Y.-Y.; Lin, J.-T.; Kuang, Y.; Yang, D.; Zhang, L.

2014-07-01

Global chemical transport models (CTMs) are used extensively to study air pollution and transport at a global scale. These models are limited by coarse horizontal resolutions, not allowing for detailed representation of small-scale nonlinear processes over the pollutant source regions. Here we couple the global GEOS-Chem CTM and its three high-resolution nested models to simulate the tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO) over the Pacific Ocean during five HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) campaigns between 2009 and 2011. We develop a two-way coupler, PKUCPL, to integrate simulation results for chemical constituents from the global model (at 2.5° long. × 2° lat.) and the three nested models (at 0.667° long. × 0.5° lat.) covering Asia, North America and Europe, respectively. The coupler obtains nested model results to modify the global model simulation within the respective nested domains, and simultaneously acquires global model results to provide lateral boundary conditions for the nested models. Compared to the global model alone, the two-way coupled simulation results in enhanced CO concentrations in the nested domains. Sensitivity tests suggest the enhancement to be a result of improved representation of the spatial distributions of CO, nitrogen oxides and non-methane volatile organic compounds, the meteorological dependence of natural emissions, and other resolution-dependent processes. The relatively long lifetime of CO allows for the enhancement to be accumulated and carried across the globe. We find that the two-way coupled simulation increases the global tropospheric mean CO concentrations in 2009 by 10.4%, with a greater enhancement at 13.3% in the Northern Hemisphere. Coincidently, the global tropospheric mean hydroxyl radical (OH) is reduced by 4.2% (as compared to the interannual variability of OH at 2.3%), resulting in a 4.2% enhancement in the methyl chloroform lifetime (MCF, via reaction with tropospheric OH). The resulting CO and OH contents and MCF lifetime are closer to observation-based estimates. Both the global and the two-way coupled models capture the general spatiotemporal patterns of HIPPO CO over the Pacific. The two-way coupled simulation is much closer to HIPPO CO, with a mean bias of 1.1 ppb (1.4%) below 9 km compared to the bias at -7.2 ppb (-9.2%) for the global model. The improvement is most apparent over the North Pacific. Our test simulations show that the global model could resemble the two-way coupled simulation (especially below 4 km) by increasing its global CO emissions by 15% for HIPPO-1 and HIPPO-3, by 25% for HIPPO-2 and HIPPO-4, and by 35% for HIPPO-5. This has important implications for using the global model to constrain CO emissions. Thus, the two-way coupled simulation is a significantly improved model tool to studying the global impacts of air pollutants from major anthropogenic source regions.

Potential Influences of Climate and Nest Structure on Spotted Owl Reproductive Success: A Biophysical Approach

PubMed Central

Rockweit, Jeremy T.; Franklin, Alan B.; Bakken, George S.; Gutiérrez, R. J.

2012-01-01

Many bird species do not make their own nests; therefore, selection of existing sites that provide adequate microclimates is critical. This is particularly true for owls in north temperate climates that often nest early in the year when inclement weather is common. Spotted owls use three main types of nest structures, each of which are structurally distinct and may provide varying levels of protection to the eggs or young. We tested the hypothesis that spotted owl nest configuration influences nest microclimate using both experimental and observational data. We used a wind tunnel to estimate the convective heat transfer coefficient (hc) of eggs in 25 potential nest configurations that mimicked 2 nest types (top-cavity and platform nests), at 3 different wind speeds. We then used the estimates of hc in a biophysical heat transfer model to estimate how long it would take unattended eggs to cool from incubation temperature (∼36°C) to physiological zero temperature (PZT; ∼26°C) under natural environmental conditions. Our results indicated that the structural configuration of nests influences the cooling time of the eggs inside those nests, and hence, influences the nest microclimate. Estimates of time to PZT ranged from 10.6 minutes to 33.3 minutes. Nest configurations that were most similar to platform nests always had the fastest egg cooling times, suggesting that platform nests were the least protective of those nests we tested. Our field data coupled with our experimental results suggested that nest choice is important for the reproductive success of owls during years of inclement weather or in regions characterized by inclement weather during the nesting season. PMID:22859993

Nesting ecology of Whimbrels in boreal Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harwood, Christopher M.; Gill, Robert E.; Powell, Abby

2016-01-01

Breeding ecology studies of boreal waders have been relatively scarce in North America. This paucity is due in part to boreal habitats being difficult to access, and boreal waders being widely dispersed and thus difficult to monitor. Between 2008 and 2014 we studied the nesting ecology of Whimbrels Numenius phaeopus hudsonicus in interior Alaska, a region characterized by an active wildfire regime. Our objectives were to (1) describe the nesting ecology of Whimbrels in tundra patches within the boreal forest, (2) assess the influence of habitat features at multiple scales on nest-site selection, and (3) characterize factors affecting nest survival. Whimbrels nested in the largest patches and exhibited a consistently compressed annual breeding schedule. We hypothesized that these Whimbrels would exhibit synchronous and clustered nesting, but observed synchronous nesting in only 2009 and 2011, and evidence of clustered nesting at just one study area in 2009, providing limited support for the hypothesis. Nests tended to be on hummocks and exhibited lateral concealment around the bowl, suggesting a trade-off between a greater view from the nest and concealment. However, our analysis failed to identify other important habitat features at scales from 1–400 m from the nest. Our best-supported nest survival model showed a strong difference between our two main study areas, but this difference remains largely unexplained. Given the increased frequency, severity, and extent of wildfires predicted under climate change scenarios, our study highlights the importance of monitoring the persistence of boreal tundra patches and the Whimbrels breeding therein.

Avian nest success in midwestern forests fragmented by agriculture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knutson, M.G.; Niemi, G.J.; Newton, W.E.; Friberg, M.A.

2004-01-01

We studied how forest-bird nest success varied by landscape context from 1996 to 1998 in an agricultural region of southeastern Minnesota, southwestern Wisconsin, and northeastern Iowa. Nest success was 48% for all nests, 82% for cavity-nesting species, and 42% for cup-nesting species. Mayfield-adjusted nest success for five common species ranged from 23% for the American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) to 43% for the Eastern Wood-Pewee (Contopus virens). Nest success was lowest for open-cup nesters, species that reject Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) eggs, species that nest near forest edges, and Neo-tropical migrants. The proportion of forest core area in a 5-km radius around the plot had a weakly negative relationship with daily survival rate of nests for all species pooled and for medium or high canopy nesters, species associated with interior and edge habitats, open-cup nesters, and nests located between 75 and 199 m from an edge. The proportion of forest core area was positively related to daily survival rate only for ground and low nesters. Our findings are in contrast to a number of studies from the eastern United States reporting strong positive associations between forest area and nesting success. Supported models of habitat associations changed with the spatial scale of analysis and included variables not often considered in studies of forest birds, including the proportion of water, shrubs, and grasslands in the landscape. Forest area may not be a strong indicator of nest success in landscapes where all the available forests are fragmented.

Tropospheric ozone simulated by a global-multi-regional two-way coupling model system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Y.; Lin, J.; Chen, J.; Hu, L.

2015-12-01

Current global chemical transport models are limited by horizontal resolutions (100-500 km), and they cannot capture small-scale processes affecting tropospheric ozone (O3). Here we use a recently built two-way coupling system of GEOS-Chem to simulate the global tropospheric O3 in 2009. The system couples the global model (~ 200 km) and its three nested models (~ 50 km) covering Asia, North America and Europe, respectively. Benefiting from the high resolution, the nested models better capture small-scale processes than the global model alone. In the coupling system, the nested models provide results to modify the global model simulation within respective nested domains while taking the lateral boundary conditions from the global model. Due to the "coupling" effects, the two-way system significantly improves the tropospheric O3 simulation upon the global model alone, as found by comparisons with a suite of ground (1420 sites from WDCGG, GMD, EMEP, and AQS), aircraft (HIPPO and MOZAIC), and satellite measurements (two OMI products). Compared to the global model alone, the two-way coupled simulation enhances the correlation in day-to-day variation of afternoon mean O3 with the ground measurements from 0.53 to 0.68 and reduces the mean model bias from 10.8 to 6.7 ppb. Regionally, the coupled model reduces the bias by 4.6 ppb over Europe, 3.9 ppb over North America, and 3.1 ppb over other regions. The two-way coupling brings O3 vertical profiles much closer to the HIPPO and MOZAIC data, reducing the tropospheric (0-9 km) mean bias by 3-10 ppb at most MOZAIC sites and by 5.3 ppb for HIPPO profiles. The two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric column ozone by 3.0 DU (9.5%), bringing them closer to the OMI data in all seasons. Simulation improvements are more significant in the northern hemisphere, and are primarily a result of improved representation of the nonlinear ozone chemistry, including but not limited to urban-rural contrast. The two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric mean hydroxyl radical by 5% with enhancements by 5% in lifetimes of methyl chloroform and methane, bringing them closer to observation-based estimates. Therefore improving model representations of small-scale processes are a critical step forward to understanding the global tropospheric chemistry.

Core and body surface temperatures of nesting leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea).

PubMed

Burns, Thomas J; McCafferty, Dominic J; Kennedy, Malcolm W

2015-07-01

Leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) are the largest species of marine turtle and the fourth most massive extant reptile. In temperate waters they maintain body temperatures higher than surrounding seawater through a combination of insulation, physiological, and behavioural adaptations. Nesting involves physical activity in addition to contact with warm sand and air, potentially presenting thermal challenges in the absence of the cooling effect of water, and data are lacking with which to understand their nesting thermal biology. Using non-contact methods (thermal imaging and infrared thermometry) to avoid any stress-related effects, we investigated core and surface temperature during nesting. The mean±SE core temperature was 31.4±0.05°C (newly emerged eggs) and was not correlated with environmental conditions on the nesting beach. Core temperature of leatherbacks was greater than that of hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) nesting at a nearby colony, 30.0±0.13°C. Body surface temperatures of leatherbacks showed regional variation, the lateral and dorsal regions of the head were warmest while the carapace was the coolest surface. Surface temperature increased during the early nesting phases, then levelled off or decreased during later phases with the rates of change varying between body regions. Body region, behavioural phase of nesting and air temperature were found to be the best predictors of surface temperature. Regional variation in surface temperature were likely due to alterations in blood supply, and temporal changes in local muscular activity of flippers during the different phases of nesting. Heat exchange from the upper surface of the turtle was dominated by radiative heat loss from all body regions and small convective heat gains to the carapace and front flippers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sunflower (Helianthus annuus) pollination in California's Central Valley is limited by native bee nest site location.

PubMed

Sardiñas, Hillary S; Tom, Kathleen; Ponisio, Lauren Catherine; Rominger, Andrew; Kremen, Claire

2016-03-01

The delivery of ecosystem services by mobile organisms depends on the distribution of those organisms, which is, in turn, affected by resources at local and landscape scales. Pollinator-dependent crops rely on mobile animals like bees for crop production, and the spatial relationship between floral resources and nest location for these central-place foragers influences the delivery of pollination services. Current models that map pollination coverage in agricultural regions utilize landscape-level estimates of floral availability and nesting incidence inferred from expert opinion, rather than direct assessments. Foraging distance is often derived from proxies of bee body size, rather than direct measurements of foraging that account for behavioral responses to floral resource type and distribution. The lack of direct measurements of nesting incidence and foraging distances may lead to inaccurate mapping of pollination services. We examined the role of local-scale floral resource presence from hedgerow plantings on nest incidence of ground-nesting bees in field margins and within monoculture, conventionally managed sunflower fields in California's Central Valley. We tracked bee movement into fields using fluorescent powder. We then used these data to simulate the distribution of pollination services within a crop field. Contrary to expert opinion, we found that ground-nesting native bees nested both in fields and edges, though nesting rates declined with distance into field. Further, we detected no effect of field-margin floral enhancements on nesting. We found evidence of an exponential decay rate of bee movement into fields, indicating that foraging predominantly occurred in less than 1% of medium-sized bees' predicted typical foraging range. Although we found native bees nesting within agricultural fields, their restricted foraging movements likely centralize pollination near nest sites. Our data thus predict a heterogeneous distribution of pollination services within sunflower fields, with edges receiving higher coverage than field centers. To generate more accurate maps of services, we advocate directly measuring the autecology of ecosystem service providers, which vary by crop system, pollinator species, and region. Improving estimates of the factors affecting pollinator populations can increase the accuracy of pollination service maps and help clarify the influence of farming practices on wild bees occurring in agricultural landscapes.

Predictive habitat models derived from nest-box occupancy for the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel in the southern Appalachians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ford, W. Mark; Evans, A.M.; Odom, Richard H.; Rodrigue, Jane L.; Kelly, C.A.; Abaid, Nicole; Diggins, Corinne A.; Newcomb, Doug

2016-01-01

In the southern Appalachians, artificial nest-boxes are used to survey for the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel (CNFS; Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus), a disjunct subspecies associated with high elevation (>1385 m) forests. Using environmental parameters diagnostic of squirrel habitat, we created 35 a priori occupancy models in the program PRESENCE for boxes surveyed in western North Carolina, 1996-2011. Our best approximating model showed CNFS denning associated with sheltered landforms and montane conifers, primarily red spruce Picea rubens. As sheltering decreased, decreasing distance to conifers was important. Area with a high probability (>0.5) of occupancy was distributed over 18662 ha of habitat, mostly across 10 mountain ranges. Because nest-box surveys underrepresented areas >1750 m and CNFS forage in conifers, we combined areas of high occupancy with conifer GIS coverages to create an additional distribution model of likely habitat. Regionally, above 1385 m, we determined that 31795 ha could be occupied by CNFS. Known occupied patches ranged from

Multi-ensemble regional simulation of Indian monsoon during contrasting rainfall years: role of convective schemes and nested domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devanand, Anjana; Ghosh, Subimal; Paul, Supantha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Niyogi, Dev

2018-06-01

Regional simulations of the seasonal Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) require an understanding of the model sensitivities to physics and resolution, and its effect on the model uncertainties. It is also important to quantify the added value in the simulated sub-regional precipitation characteristics by a regional climate model (RCM), when compared to coarse resolution rainfall products. This study presents regional model simulations of ISMR at seasonal scale using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the synoptic scale forcing from ERA-interim reanalysis, for three contrasting monsoon seasons, 1994 (excess), 2002 (deficit) and 2010 (normal). Impact of four cumulus schemes, viz., Kain-Fritsch (KF), Betts-Janjić-Miller, Grell 3D and modified Kain-Fritsch (KFm), and two micro physical parameterization schemes, viz., WRF Single Moment Class 5 scheme and Lin et al. scheme (LIN), with eight different possible combinations are analyzed. The impact of spectral nudging on model sensitivity is also studied. In WRF simulations using spectral nudging, improvement in model rainfall appears to be consistent in regions with topographic variability such as Central Northeast and Konkan Western Ghat sub-regions. However the results are also dependent on choice of cumulus scheme used, with KF and KFm providing relatively good performance and the eight member ensemble mean showing better results for these sub-regions. There is no consistent improvement noted in Northeast and Peninsular Indian monsoon regions. Results indicate that the regional simulations using nested domains can provide some improvements on ISMR simulations. Spectral nudging is found to improve upon the model simulations in terms of reducing the intra ensemble spread and hence the uncertainty in the model simulated precipitation. The results provide important insights regarding the need for further improvements in the regional climate simulations of ISMR for various sub-regions and contribute to the understanding of the added value in seasonal simulations by RCMs.

Multi-ensemble regional simulation of Indian monsoon during contrasting rainfall years: role of convective schemes and nested domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devanand, Anjana; Ghosh, Subimal; Paul, Supantha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Niyogi, Dev

2017-08-01

Regional simulations of the seasonal Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) require an understanding of the model sensitivities to physics and resolution, and its effect on the model uncertainties. It is also important to quantify the added value in the simulated sub-regional precipitation characteristics by a regional climate model (RCM), when compared to coarse resolution rainfall products. This study presents regional model simulations of ISMR at seasonal scale using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the synoptic scale forcing from ERA-interim reanalysis, for three contrasting monsoon seasons, 1994 (excess), 2002 (deficit) and 2010 (normal). Impact of four cumulus schemes, viz., Kain-Fritsch (KF), Betts-Janjić-Miller, Grell 3D and modified Kain-Fritsch (KFm), and two micro physical parameterization schemes, viz., WRF Single Moment Class 5 scheme and Lin et al. scheme (LIN), with eight different possible combinations are analyzed. The impact of spectral nudging on model sensitivity is also studied. In WRF simulations using spectral nudging, improvement in model rainfall appears to be consistent in regions with topographic variability such as Central Northeast and Konkan Western Ghat sub-regions. However the results are also dependent on choice of cumulus scheme used, with KF and KFm providing relatively good performance and the eight member ensemble mean showing better results for these sub-regions. There is no consistent improvement noted in Northeast and Peninsular Indian monsoon regions. Results indicate that the regional simulations using nested domains can provide some improvements on ISMR simulations. Spectral nudging is found to improve upon the model simulations in terms of reducing the intra ensemble spread and hence the uncertainty in the model simulated precipitation. The results provide important insights regarding the need for further improvements in the regional climate simulations of ISMR for various sub-regions and contribute to the understanding of the added value in seasonal simulations by RCMs.

Inadequate thermal refuge constrains landscape habitability for a grassland bird species

PubMed Central

Pierce, Brian L.

2017-01-01

Ecologists have long recognized the influence that environmental conditions have on abundance and range extent of animal species. We used the northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus; hereafter bobwhite) as a model species for studying how microclimates serve as refuge against severe weather conditions. This species serves as an indicator or umbrella species for other sensitive ground-nesting, grassland obligate species. We conducted a mensurative field experiment in the rolling plains of Texas, USA, a semi-arid ecosystem on the southwestern periphery of bobwhite range, to determine whether native bunch grasses, apparently suitable for bobwhite nesting, could reduce ambient temperature below levels harmful for eggs. During the nesting season, we compared temperature and relative humidity readings at daily heat maxima (i.e., the 3 h during each day with highest temperatures) during the nesting season over the course of two years at 63 suitable nest sites paired with 63 random locations (n = 126) using two sensors at ∼10 and ∼60 cm above ground level. Mean temperature at nest height was 2.3% cooler at nest sites (35.99 °C ± 0.07 SE) compared to random locations (36.81 °C ± 0.07 SE); at ambient height, nest sites were slightly cooler (32.78 °C ± 0.06 SE) than random location (32.99 °C ± 0.06 SE). Mean relative humidity at nest sites was greater at nest height (34.53% ± 0.112 SE) and ambient height (36.22% ± 0.10 SE) compared to random locations at nest (33.35% ± 0.12 SE) and ambient height (35.75% ± 0.10 SE). Based on these results, cover at sites that appear visually suitable for nesting by bobwhites and other ground nesting birds provided adequate thermal refuge in the rolling plains by maintaining cooler, moister microclimates than surrounding non-nesting locations. Post-hoc analyses of data revealed that habitat conditions surrounding suitable nest sites strongly influenced thermal suitability of the substrate. Given that eggs of bobwhites and probably other species would experience lethal temperatures without these thermal refuges in the context of proper habitat condition, nesting vegetation is a critical component of niche space for bobwhites and other ground nesting birds in semi-arid regions. Many contemporary land uses, however, degrade or destroy bunch grasses and grassland systems, and thus decrease landscape inhabitability. Conservationists working with obligate grassland species that require bunch grasses in semi-arid regions should develop land management strategies that maximize the availability of these thermal refuges across space and time. PMID:28828282

Inadequate thermal refuge constrains landscape habitability for a grassland bird species.

PubMed

Tomecek, John M; Pierce, Brian L; Reyna, Kelly S; Peterson, Markus J

2017-01-01

Ecologists have long recognized the influence that environmental conditions have on abundance and range extent of animal species. We used the northern bobwhite ( Colinus virginianus ; hereafter bobwhite) as a model species for studying how microclimates serve as refuge against severe weather conditions. This species serves as an indicator or umbrella species for other sensitive ground-nesting, grassland obligate species. We conducted a mensurative field experiment in the rolling plains of Texas, USA, a semi-arid ecosystem on the southwestern periphery of bobwhite range, to determine whether native bunch grasses, apparently suitable for bobwhite nesting, could reduce ambient temperature below levels harmful for eggs. During the nesting season, we compared temperature and relative humidity readings at daily heat maxima (i.e., the 3 h during each day with highest temperatures) during the nesting season over the course of two years at 63 suitable nest sites paired with 63 random locations ( n = 126) using two sensors at ∼10 and ∼60 cm above ground level. Mean temperature at nest height was 2.3% cooler at nest sites (35.99 °C ± 0.07 SE) compared to random locations (36.81 °C ± 0.07 SE); at ambient height, nest sites were slightly cooler (32.78 °C ± 0.06 SE) than random location (32.99 °C ± 0.06 SE). Mean relative humidity at nest sites was greater at nest height (34.53% ± 0.112 SE) and ambient height (36.22% ± 0.10 SE) compared to random locations at nest (33.35% ± 0.12 SE) and ambient height (35.75% ± 0.10 SE). Based on these results, cover at sites that appear visually suitable for nesting by bobwhites and other ground nesting birds provided adequate thermal refuge in the rolling plains by maintaining cooler, moister microclimates than surrounding non-nesting locations. Post-hoc analyses of data revealed that habitat conditions surrounding suitable nest sites strongly influenced thermal suitability of the substrate. Given that eggs of bobwhites and probably other species would experience lethal temperatures without these thermal refuges in the context of proper habitat condition, nesting vegetation is a critical component of niche space for bobwhites and other ground nesting birds in semi-arid regions. Many contemporary land uses, however, degrade or destroy bunch grasses and grassland systems, and thus decrease landscape inhabitability. Conservationists working with obligate grassland species that require bunch grasses in semi-arid regions should develop land management strategies that maximize the availability of these thermal refuges across space and time.

Impact of the Conservation Reserve Program on duck recruitment in the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Ronald E.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Renner, Randy W.; Newton, Wesley E.; Batt, Bruce D.J.

2001-01-01

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)'s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) resulted in the conversion of about 1.9 million ha of cropland to perennial grass cover in the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, South Dakota, and northeastern Montana by 1992. Many wildlife managers believed this cover would provide benefits to wildlife, including upland nesting ducks. During 1992-1995, we evaluated success of 5 duck species nesting in CRP fields and nearby Waterfowl Production Areas (WPA) throughout the region. We examined relationships between daily survival rates (DSR) of duck nests in CRP cover and landscape-level habitat and population parameters. We computed DSR of duck nests in other major cover types in our study area from data collected during 1980-1984 (pre-CRP) and 1990-1994 (CRP) periods. We then applied recruitment models to estimate duck production in our study area during peak CRP years (1992-1997) and compared these results with those that simulated the scenario in which cropland was in place of CRP cover (i.e., the CRP had not occurred). DSR were higher in all habitats combined during the CRP period compared to the pre-CRP period. Regressions of DSR in CRP cover on the percent of each study plot in perennial cover and geographic location were significant (P < 0.01) for 4 of 5 duck (Anas spp.) species. Estimated nest success and recruitment rates for the 5 species combined during 1992-1997 were 46% and 30% higher, respectively, with CRP cover on the landscape compared to a scenario where we simulated cropland in place of CRP. Our model estimated an additional 12.4 million recruits from our study area to the fall flight as a consequence of the CRP during 1992-1997. Our results document benefits to 5 duck species in the northern plains associated with a farm program that provided financial incentives to landowners for planting undisturbed grass cover as an alternative to annual crops.

Improved simulation of tropospheric ozone by a global-multi-regional two-way coupling model system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Y.-Y.; Lin, J.-T.; Chen, J.; Hu, L.

2015-09-01

Small-scale nonlinear chemical and physical processes over pollution source regions affect the global ozone (O3) chemistry, but these processes are not captured by current global chemical transport models (CTMs) and chemistry-climate models that are limited by coarse horizontal resolutions (100-500 km, typically 200 km). These models tend to contain large (and mostly positive) tropospheric O3 biases in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we use a recently built two-way coupling system of the GEOS-Chem CTM to simulate the global tropospheric O3 in 2009. The system couples the global model (at 2.5° long. × 2° lat.) and its three nested models (at 0.667° long. × 0.5° lat.) covering Asia, North America and Europe, respectively. Benefiting from the high resolution, the nested models better capture small-scale processes than the global model alone. In the coupling system, the nested models provide results to modify the global model simulation within respective nested domains while taking the lateral boundary conditions from the global model. Due to the "coupling" effects, the two-way system significantly improves the tropospheric O3 simulation upon the global model alone, as found by comparisons with a suite of ground (1420 sites from WDCGG, GMD, EMEP, and AQS), aircraft (HIPPO and MOZAIC), and satellite measurements (two OMI products). Compared to the global model alone, the two-way coupled simulation enhances the correlation in day-to-day variation of afternoon mean O3 with the ground measurements from 0.53 to 0.68, and it reduces the mean model bias from 10.8 to 6.7 ppb in annual average afternoon O3. Regionally, the coupled model reduces the bias by 4.6 ppb over Europe, 3.9 ppb over North America, and 3.1 ppb over other regions. The two-way coupling brings O3 vertical profiles much closer to the HIPPO (for remote areas) and MOZAIC (for polluted regions) data, reducing the tropospheric (0-9 km) mean bias by 3-10 ppb at most MOZAIC sites and by 5.3 ppb for HIPPO profiles. The two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric column ozone by 3.0 DU (9.5 %, annual mean), bringing them closer to the OMI data in all seasons. Simulation improvements are more significant in the northern hemisphere, and are primarily a result of improved representation of urban-rural contrast and other small-scale processes. The two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric mean hydroxyl radical by 5 % with enhancements by 5 % in the lifetimes of methyl chloroform (from 5.58 to 5.87 yr) and methane (from 9.63 to 10.12 yr), bringing them closer to observation-based estimates. Improving model representations of small-scale processes are a critical step forward to understanding the global tropospheric chemistry.

Tropospheric carbon monoxide over the Pacific during HIPPO: two-way coupled simulation of GEOS-Chem and its multiple nested models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Y.-Y.; Lin, J.-T.; Kuang, Y.; Yang, D.; Zhang, L.

2014-12-01

Global chemical transport models (CTMs) are used extensively to study air pollution and transport at a global scale. These models are limited by coarse horizontal resolutions that do not allow for a detailed representation of small-scale nonlinear processes over the pollutant source regions. Here we couple the global GEOS-Chem CTM and its three high-resolution nested models to simulate the tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO) over the Pacific Ocean during five High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) campaigns between 2009 and 2011. We develop a two-way coupler, the PeKing University CouPLer (PKUCPL), allowing for the exchange and interaction of chemical constituents between the global model (at 2.5° long. × 2° lat.) and the three nested models (at 0.667° long. × 0.5° lat.) covering Asia, North America, and Europe. The coupler obtains nested model results to modify the global model simulation within the respective nested domains, and simultaneously acquires global model results to provide lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) for the nested models. Compared to the global model alone, the two-way coupled simulation results in enhanced CO concentrations in the nested domains. Sensitivity tests suggest the enhancement to be a result of improved representation of the spatial distributions of CO, nitrogen oxides, and non-methane volatile organic compounds, the meteorological dependence of natural emissions, and other resolution-dependent processes. The relatively long lifetime of CO allows for the enhancement to be accumulated and carried across the globe. We found that the two-way coupled simulation increased the global tropospheric mean CO concentrations in 2009 by 10.4%, with a greater enhancement at 13.3% in the Northern Hemisphere. Coincidently, the global tropospheric mean hydroxyl radical (OH) was reduced by 4.2%, resulting in a 4.2% enhancement in the methyl chloroform lifetime (MCF; via reaction with tropospheric OH). The resulting CO and OH contents and MCF lifetime are closer to observation-based estimates. Both the global and the two-way coupled models capture the general spatiotemporal patterns of HIPPO CO over the Pacific. The two-way coupled simulation is much closer to HIPPO CO, with a mean bias of 1.1 ppb (1.4%) below 9 km compared to the bias at -7.2 ppb (-9.2%) for the global model alone. The improvement is most apparent over the North Pacific. Our test simulations show that the global model alone could resemble the two-way coupled simulation (especially below 4 km) by increasing its global CO emissions by 15% for HIPPO-1 and HIPPO-3, by 25% for HIPPO-2 and HIPPO-4, and by 35% for HIPPO-5. This has important implications for using the global model alone to constrain CO emissions. Thus, the two-way coupled simulation is a significantly improved model tool for studying the global impacts of air pollutants from major anthropogenic source regions.

[Nesting habitat characterization for Amazona oratrix (Psittaciformes: Psittacidae) in the Central Pacific, Mexico].

PubMed

Monterrubio-Rico, Tiberio C; Álvarez-Jara, Margarito; Tellez-Garcia, Loreno; Tena-Morelos, Carlos

2014-09-01

The nesting requirements of the Yellow-headed Parrot (Amazona oratrix) are poorly understood, despite their broad historical distribution, high demand for pet trade and current endangered status. Information concerning their nesting requirements is required in order to design specific restoration and conser- vation actions. To assess this, we studied their nesting ecology in the Central Pacific, Michoacan, Mexico during a ten year period. The analyzed variables ranged from local scale nest site characteristics such as nesting tree species, dimensions, geographic positions, diet and nesting forest patches structure, to large scale features such as vegetation use and climatic variables associated to the nesting tree distributions by an ecological niche model using Maxent. We also evaluated the parrot tolerance to land management regimes, and compared the Pacific nest trees with 18 nest trees recorded in an intensively managed private ranch in Tamaulipas, Gulf of Mexico. Parrots nested in tall trees with canopy level cavities in 92 nest-trees recorded from 11 tree species. The 72.8% of nesting occurred in trees of Astronium graveolens, and Enterolobium cyclocarpum which qualified as key- stone trees. The forests where the parrots nested, presented a maximum of 54 tree species, 50% of which were identified as food source; besides, these areas also had a high abundance of trees used as food supply. The lowest number of tree species and trees to forage occurred in an active cattle ranch, whereas the highest species rich- ness was observed in areas with natural recovery. The nesting cavity entrance height from above ground of the Pacific nesting trees resulted higher than those found in the Gulf of Mexico. We hypothesize that the differences may be attributed to Parrot behavioral differences adapting to differential poaching pressure and cavity avail- ability. Nesting trees were found in six vegetation types; however the parrots preferred conserved and riparian semi-deciduous forest for nesting, with fewer nests in deciduous forest, while nesting in transformed agricultural fields was avoided. The main climatic variables associated with the potential distribution of nests were: mean temperature of wettest quarter, mean diurnal temperature range, and precipitation of wettest month. Suitable cli- matic conditions for the potential presence of nesting trees were present in 61% of the region; however, most of the area consisted of tropical deciduous forests (55.8%), while semi-deciduous tropical forests covered only 17% of the region. These results indicated the importance to conserve semi-deciduous forests as breeding habitats for the Yellow-headed Parrot, and revealed the urgent need to implement conservation and restoration actions. These should include a total ban of land use change in tropical semi-deciduous forest areas, and for selective logging of all keystone tree species; besides, we recommend the establishment of wildlife sanctuaries in important nesting areas, and a series of tropical forest restoration programs in the Central Pacific coast.

Regional Model Studies Nested in HYCOM. Application to the West Florida Shelf and the Cariaco Basin using ROMS

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-30

marine.usf.edu Aida Alvera -Azcárate Phone: (727) 553-3508 Fax: (727) 553 1189 email: aalvera@marine.usf.edu Alexander Barth, Phone: (727...WFS and the data assimilation are being performed by Alexander Barth. The Cariaco nesting is performed by Aida Alvera -Azcárate. WORK COMPLETED...363–380. Barth, A., Beckers, J.-M., Alvera -Azcárate, A. and Weisberg, R.H. (2007), Filtering inertia-gravity waves from the initial conditions of

Understanding Predictability of the Ocean

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-30

information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE 30 SEP 2011 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2011 to 00-00...source of barotropic-to-baroclinic tidal energy conversion. In the region around the islands, the internal tidal energy is as much as 50% of the...PacIOOS currently employs four nested ROMS models: 4km island-chain, 1km Oahu, 100m Oahu South-Shore, and 80m Oahu West-Coast. Each grid is nested in

Interpreting forest biome productivity and cover utilizing nested scales of image resolution and biogeographical analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iverson, Louis R.; Cook, Elizabeth A.; Graham, Robin L.; Olson, Jerry S.; Frank, Thomas D.; Ying, KE

1988-01-01

The objective was to relate spectral imagery of varying resolution with ground-based data on forest productivity and cover, and to create models to predict regional estimates of forest productivity and cover with a quantifiable degree of accuracy. A three stage approach was outlined. In the first stage, a model was developed relating forest cover or productivity to TM surface reflectance values (TM/FOREST models). The TM/FOREST models were more accurate when biogeographic information regarding the landscape was either used to stratigy the landscape into more homogeneous units or incorporated directly into the TM/FOREST model. In the second stage, AVHRR/FOREST models that predicted forest cover and productivity on the basis of AVHRR band values were developed. The AVHRR/FOREST models had statistical properties similar to or better than those of the TM/FOREST models. In the third stage, the regional predictions were compared with the independent U.S. Forest Service (USFS) data. To do this regional forest cover and forest productivity maps were created using AVHRR scenes and the AVHRR/FOREST models. From the maps the county values of forest productivity and cover were calculated. It is apparent that the landscape has a strong influence on the success of the approach. An approach of using nested scales of imagery in conjunction with ground-based data can be successful in generating regional estimates of variables that are functionally related to some variable a sensor can detect.

Variability in vegetation effects on density and nesting success of grassland birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winter, Maiken; Johnson, Douglas H.; Shaffer, Jill A.

2005-01-01

The structure of vegetation in grassland systems, unlike that in forest systems, varies dramatically among years on the same sites, and among regions with similar vegetation. The role of this variation in vegetation structure on bird density and nesting success of grassland birds is poorly understood, primarily because few studies have included sufficiently large temporal and spatial scales to capture the variation in vegetation structure, bird density, or nesting success. To date, no large-scale study on grassland birds has been conducted to investigate whether grassland bird density and nesting success respond similarly to changes in vegetation structure. However, reliable management recommendations require investigations into the distribution and nesting success of grassland birds over larger temporal and spatial scales. In addition, studies need to examine whether bird density and nesting success respond similarly to changing environmental conditions. We investigated the effect of vegetation structure on the density and nesting success of 3 grassland-nesting birds: clay-colored sparrow (Spizella pallida), Savannah sparrow (Passerculus sandwichensis), and bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus) in 3 regions of the northern tallgrass prairie in 1998-2001. Few vegetation features influenced the densities of our study species, and each species responded differently to those vegetation variables. We could identify only 1 variable that clearly influenced nesting success of 1 species: clay-colored sparrow nesting success increased with increasing percentage of nest cover from the surrounding vegetation. Because responses of avian density and nesting success to vegetation measures varied among regions, years, and species, land managers at all times need to provide grasslands with different types of vegetation structure. Management guidelines developed from small-scale, short-term studies may lead to misrepresentations of the needs of grassland-nesting birds.

A Prototype Nonhydrostatic Regional-to-Global Nested-Grid Atmosphere Model for Medium-range Weather Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, L.; Lin, S. J.; Zhou, L.; Chen, J. H.; Benson, R.; Rees, S.

2016-12-01

Limited-area convection-permitting models have proven useful for short-range NWP, but are unable to interact with the larger scales needed for longer lead-time skill. A new global forecast model, fvGFS, has been designed combining a modern nonhydrostatic dynamical core, the GFDL Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere dynamical core (FV3) with operational GFS physics and initial conditions, and has been shown to provide excellent global skill while improving representation of small-scale phenomena. The nested-grid capability of FV3 allows us to build a regional-to-global variable-resolution model to efficiently refine to 3-km grid spacing over the Continental US. The use of two-way grid nesting allows us to reach these resolutions very efficiently, with the operational requirement easily attainable on current supercomputing systems.Even without a boundary-layer or advanced microphysical scheme appropriate for convection-perrmitting resolutions, the effectiveness of fvGFS can be demonstrated for a variety of weather events. We demonstrate successful proof-of-concept simulations of a variety of phenomena. We show the capability to develop intense hurricanes with realistic fine-scale eyewalls and rainbands. The new model also produces skillful predictions of severe weather outbreaks and of organized mesoscale convective systems. Fine-scale orographic and boundary-layer phenomena are also simulated with excellent fidelity by fvGFS. Further expected improvements are discussed, including the introduction of more sophisticated microphysics and of scale-aware convection schemes.

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Forster's tern (breeding) - Gulf and Atlantic coasts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Richard P.; Zwank, Phillip J.

1987-01-01

The nesting range of Forster's terns hosts three allopatric breeding populations. The first and most important breeding area, in terms of the number of nes t i ng pairs, includes the western guIf coas t from the Louisiana-Mississippi border to northern Tamaulipas, Mexico (American Ornithologists' Union [AOUJ 1983). In addition, small numbers of Forster's terns have nested in Mobile County, Alabama (Imhof 1976). Although this species has not been recorded nesting in Mississippi (J. Jackson, Mississippi State University, Starkville; pers. comm.), it is observed in the coastal regions of that State every summer, and several thousand nest in adjacent Louisiana (Portnoy 1977; Clapp et ale 1983). The two largest colonies of Forster's terns documented in the literature were both in Louisiana: one of 2,750 pairs in Lake Borgne on the Louisiana-Mississippi border and one of 2,263 pairs in Calcasieu Lake (Portnoy 1977).

Advanced techniques for modeling avian nest survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinsmore, S.J.; White, Gary C.; Knopf, F.L.

2002-01-01

Estimation of avian nest survival has traditionally involved simple measures of apparent nest survival or Mayfield constant-nest-survival models. However, these methods do not allow researchers to build models that rigorously assess the importance of a wide range of biological factors that affect nest survival. Models that incorporate greater detail, such as temporal variation in nest survival and covariates representative of individual nests represent a substantial improvement over traditional estimation methods. In an attempt to improve nest survival estimation procedures, we introduce the nest survival model now available in the program MARK and demonstrate its use on a nesting study of Mountain Plovers (Charadrius montanus Townsend) in Montana, USA. We modeled the daily survival of Mountain Plover nests as a function of the sex of the incubating adult, nest age, year, linear and quadratic time trends, and two weather covariates (maximum daily temperature and daily precipitation) during a six-year study (1995–2000). We found no evidence for yearly differences or an effect of maximum daily temperature on the daily nest survival of Mountain Plovers. Survival rates of nests tended by female and male plovers differed (female rate = 0.33; male rate = 0.49). The estimate of the additive effect for males on nest survival rate was 0.37 (95% confidence limits were 0.03, 0.71) on a logit scale. Daily survival rates of nests increased with nest age; the estimate of daily nest-age change in survival in the best model was 0.06 (95% confidence limits were 0.04, 0.09) on a logit scale. Daily precipitation decreased the probability that the nest would survive to the next day; the estimate of the additive effect of daily precipitation on the nest survival rate was −1.08 (95% confidence limits were −2.12, −0.13) on a logit scale. Our approach to modeling daily nest-survival rates allowed several biological factors of interest to be easily included in nest survival models and allowed us to generate more biologically meaningful estimates of nest survival.

GFDL's unified regional-global weather-climate modeling system with variable resolution capability for severe weather predictions and regional climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, S. J.

2015-12-01

The NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been developing a unified regional-global modeling system with variable resolution capabilities that can be used for severe weather predictions (e.g., tornado outbreak events and cat-5 hurricanes) and ultra-high-resolution (1-km) regional climate simulations within a consistent global modeling framework. The fundation of this flexible regional-global modeling system is the non-hydrostatic extension of the vertically Lagrangian dynamical core (Lin 2004, Monthly Weather Review) known in the community as FV3 (finite-volume on the cubed-sphere). Because of its flexability and computational efficiency, the FV3 is one of the final candidates of NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). We have built into the modeling system a stretched (single) grid capability, a two-way (regional-global) multiple nested grid capability, and the combination of the stretched and two-way nests, so as to make convection-resolving regional climate simulation within a consistent global modeling system feasible using today's High Performance Computing System. One of our main scientific goals is to enable simulations of high impact weather phenomena (such as tornadoes, thunderstorms, category-5 hurricanes) within an IPCC-class climate modeling system previously regarded as impossible. In this presentation I will demonstrate that it is computationally feasible to simulate not only super-cell thunderstorms, but also the subsequent genesis of tornadoes using a global model that was originally designed for century long climate simulations. As a unified weather-climate modeling system, we evaluated the performance of the model with horizontal resolution ranging from 1 km to as low as 200 km. In particular, for downscaling studies, we have developed various tests to ensure that the large-scale circulation within the global varaible resolution system is well simulated while at the same time the small-scale can be accurately captured within the targeted high resolution region.

Conceptual Model Development for Sea Turtle Nesting Habitat: Support for USACE Navigation Projects

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-01

regional values. • Beach Width: The width of the beach (m) defines the region from the shoreline to the dune toe . Loggerhead turtles tend to prefer...primary drivers of the model parameters. • Beach Elevation: Beach elevation (m) is measured from the shoreline to the dune toe . Elevation influences...mapping, and morphological features in combination with imagery-derived environmental parameters (i.e., dune vegetation) have not been attempted

Use of no-till winter wheat by nesting ducks in North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duebbert, H.F.; Kantrud, H.A.

1987-01-01

Nesting of dabbling ducks (Anatinae) was studied in fields of no-till winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) in the prairie pothole region of North Dakota during 1984 and 1985. Total area of 59 fields searched in 1984 was 1,135 ha and total area of 70 fields searched in 1985 was 1,175 ha. Field sizes ranged from 3 ha to 110 ha. Nests of five duck species were found: blue-winged teal (Anas discors), 55 nests; northern pintail (A. acuta), 44; mallard (A. platyrhynchos), 29; gadwall (A. strepera), 15; and northern shoveler (A. clypeata), 8. The average number of nests found was 8/100 ha in 1984 and 6/100 ha in 1985. Nest success for all species averaged 26% in 1984 and 29% in 1985. Predation by mammals was the principal cause of nest destruction. No egg or hen mortality could be attributed to pesticide use. Only 6 of 151 nests (4%) were abandoned during the two years. We also found 29 nests of seven other ground-nesting bird species. The trend toward increased planting of no-till winter wheat in the prairie pothole region should benefit production of ducks and other ground-nesting birds.

Interactive effects between nest microclimate and nest vegetation structure confirm microclimate thresholds for Lesser Prairie-Chicken nest survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grisham, Blake A.; Godar, Alixandra J.; Boal, Clint W.; Haukos, David A.

2016-01-01

The range of Lesser Prairie-Chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) spans 4 unique ecoregions along 2 distinct environmental gradients. The Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion of the Southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas is environmentally isolated, warmer, and more arid than the Short-Grass, Sand Sagebrush, and Mixed-Grass Prairie ecoregions in Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and the northeast panhandle of Texas. Weather is known to influence Lesser Prairie-Chicken nest survival in the Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion; regional variation may also influence nest microclimate and, ultimately, survival during incubation. To address this question, we placed data loggers adjacent to nests during incubation to quantify temperature and humidity distribution functions in 3 ecoregions. We developed a suite of a priori nest survival models that incorporated derived microclimate parameters and visual obstruction as covariates in Program MARK. We monitored 49 nests in Mixed-Grass, 22 nests in Sand Shinnery Oak, and 30 nests in Short-Grass ecoregions from 2010 to 2014. Our findings indicated that (1) the Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion was hotter and drier during incubation than the Mixed- and Short-Grass ecoregions; (2) nest microclimate varied among years within ecoregions; (3) visual obstruction was positively associated with nest survival; but (4) daily nest survival probability decreased by 10% every half-hour when temperature was greater than 34°C and vapor pressure deficit was less than −23 mmHg during the day (about 0600–2100 hours). Our major finding confirmed microclimate thresholds for nest survival under natural conditions across the species' distribution, although Lesser Prairie-Chickens are more likely to experience microclimate conditions that result in nest failures in the Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion. The species would benefit from identification of thermal landscapes and management actions that promote cooler, more humid nest microclimates.

Latitudinal variation in avian incubation attentiveness and a test of the food limitation hypothesis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chalfoun, A.D.; Martin, T.E.

2007-01-01

Avian incubation attentiveness has important fitness consequences through its influence on the number and quality of hatched young and energetic costs imposed on parents. Nest attentiveness is highly variable across species and geographical regions. We reviewed the literature and found a worldwide pattern that nest attentiveness of passerines is generally lower in south temperate and tropical regions than in north temperate regions. We also conducted a food manipulation experiment to assess the extent to which nest attentiveness may reflect proximate responses versus an evolved behaviour. We used the karoo prinia, Prinia maculosa, in South Africa, which has very low nest attentiveness (???49%) compared with that of many passerine birds. We provided supplemental food during early incubation to experimental females and compared nest attentiveness and on- and off-bout lengths of experimental and paired control females.??Nest attentiveness of females at food-provisioned nests was significantly higher than that of control females (57% versus 49%). Food-supplemented females also spent significantly less time off the nest than did control females, whereas mean on-bout lengths did not differ. However, mean nest attentiveness of food-provisioned females was still substantially below that of other similar bird species worldwide. Food can be an important proximate influence on parental care behaviour, but proximate influences of food do not explain broad latitudinal patterns of attentiveness. ?? 2007 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

[Morphological analysis of the hippocampal region associated with an innate behaviour task in the transgenic mouse model (3xTg-AD) for Alzheimer disease].

PubMed

Orta-Salazar, E; Feria-Velasco, A; Medina-Aguirre, G I; Díaz-Cintra, S

2013-10-01

Different animal models for Alzheimer disease (AD) have been designed to support the hypothesis that the neurodegeneration (loss of neurons and synapses with reactive gliosis) associated with Aβ and tau deposition in these models is similar to that in the human brain. These alterations produce functional changes beginning with decreased ability to carry out daily and social life activities, memory loss, and neuropsychiatric disorders in general. Neuronal alteration plays an important role in early stages of the disease, especially in the CA1 area of hippocampus in both human and animal models. Two groups (WT and 3xTg-AD) of 11-month-old female mice were used in a behavioural analysis (nest building) and a morphometric analysis of the CA1 region of the dorsal hippocampus. The 3xTg-AD mice showed a 50% reduction in nest quality associated with a significant increase in damaged neurons in the CA1 hippocampal area (26%±6%, P<.05) compared to the WT group. The decreased ability to carry out activities of daily living (humans) or nest building (3xTg-AD mice) is related to the neuronal alterations observed in AD. These alterations are controlled by the hippocampus. Post-mortem analyses of the human hippocampus, and the CA1 region in 3xTg-AD mice, show that these areas are associated with alterations in the deposition of Aβ and tau proteins, which start accumulating in the early stages of AD. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Dynamical Downscaling of Seasonal Climate Prediction over Nordeste Brazil with ECHAM3 and NCEP's Regional Spectral Models at IRI.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobre, Paulo; Moura, Antonio D.; Sun, Liqiang

2001-12-01

This study presents an evaluation of a seasonal climate forecast done with the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) dynamical forecast system (regional model nested into a general circulation model) over northern South America for January-April 1999, encompassing the rainy season over Brazil's Nordeste. The one-way nesting is one in two tiers: first the NCEP's Regional Spectral Model (RSM) runs with an 80-km grid mesh forced by the ECHAM3 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) outputs; then the RSM runs with a finer grid mesh (20 km) forced by the forecasts generated by the RSM-80. An ensemble of three realizations is done. Lower boundary conditions over the oceans for both ECHAM and RSM model runs are sea surface temperature forecasts over the tropical oceans. Soil moisture is initialized by ECHAM's inputs. The rainfall forecasts generated by the regional model are compared with those of the AGCM and observations. It is shown that the regional model at 80-km resolution improves upon the AGCM rainfall forecast, reducing both seasonal bias and root-mean-square error. On the other hand, the RSM-20 forecasts presented larger errors, with spatial patterns that resemble those of local topography. The better forecast of the position and width of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over the tropical Atlantic by the RSM-80 model is one of the principal reasons for better-forecast scores of the RSM-80 relative to the AGCM. The regional model improved the spatial as well as the temporal details of rainfall distribution, and also presenting the minimum spread among the ensemble members. The statistics of synoptic-scale weather variability on seasonal timescales were best forecast with the regional 80-km model over the Nordeste. The possibility of forecasting the frequency distribution of dry and wet spells within the rainy season is encouraging.

The differential emission measure of nested hot and cool magnetic loops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Van Hoven, G.; Mok, Y.

1993-01-01

The detailed thermal structure of the magnetized solar transition region, as measured by its differential emission measure (DEM(T)), is poorly known. Building on the fact that the solar surface is strongly magnetized and thereby structured, proposals have been made that envision a significant lower-temperature contribution to the energy balance from (ion) heat flux across an arcade of different temperature loops. In this paper, we describe a self-consistent 2D MHD simulation, which includes the full thermal effects of parallel stability and anisotropic conduction, of a nested-loop model of the thermal and magnetic structure of the transition region. We then demonstrate that the predicted DEM agrees with observations in the conceptually elusive T less than 10 exp 5 K regime.

A hierarchical nest survival model integrating incomplete temporally varying covariates

PubMed Central

Converse, Sarah J; Royle, J Andrew; Adler, Peter H; Urbanek, Richard P; Barzen, Jeb A

2013-01-01

Nest success is a critical determinant of the dynamics of avian populations, and nest survival modeling has played a key role in advancing avian ecology and management. Beginning with the development of daily nest survival models, and proceeding through subsequent extensions, the capacity for modeling the effects of hypothesized factors on nest survival has expanded greatly. We extend nest survival models further by introducing an approach to deal with incompletely observed, temporally varying covariates using a hierarchical model. Hierarchical modeling offers a way to separate process and observational components of demographic models to obtain estimates of the parameters of primary interest, and to evaluate structural effects of ecological and management interest. We built a hierarchical model for daily nest survival to analyze nest data from reintroduced whooping cranes (Grus americana) in the Eastern Migratory Population. This reintroduction effort has been beset by poor reproduction, apparently due primarily to nest abandonment by breeding birds. We used the model to assess support for the hypothesis that nest abandonment is caused by harassment from biting insects. We obtained indices of blood-feeding insect populations based on the spatially interpolated counts of insects captured in carbon dioxide traps. However, insect trapping was not conducted daily, and so we had incomplete information on a temporally variable covariate of interest. We therefore supplemented our nest survival model with a parallel model for estimating the values of the missing insect covariates. We used Bayesian model selection to identify the best predictors of daily nest survival. Our results suggest that the black fly Simulium annulus may be negatively affecting nest survival of reintroduced whooping cranes, with decreasing nest survival as abundance of S. annulus increases. The modeling framework we have developed will be applied in the future to a larger data set to evaluate the biting-insect hypothesis and other hypotheses for nesting failure in this reintroduced population; resulting inferences will support ongoing efforts to manage this population via an adaptive management approach. Wider application of our approach offers promise for modeling the effects of other temporally varying, but imperfectly observed covariates on nest survival, including the possibility of modeling temporally varying covariates collected from incubating adults. PMID:24340185

A hierarchical nest survival model integrating incomplete temporally varying covariates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Adler, Peter H.; Urbanek, Richard P.; Barzan, Jeb A.

2013-01-01

Nest success is a critical determinant of the dynamics of avian populations, and nest survival modeling has played a key role in advancing avian ecology and management. Beginning with the development of daily nest survival models, and proceeding through subsequent extensions, the capacity for modeling the effects of hypothesized factors on nest survival has expanded greatly. We extend nest survival models further by introducing an approach to deal with incompletely observed, temporally varying covariates using a hierarchical model. Hierarchical modeling offers a way to separate process and observational components of demographic models to obtain estimates of the parameters of primary interest, and to evaluate structural effects of ecological and management interest. We built a hierarchical model for daily nest survival to analyze nest data from reintroduced whooping cranes (Grus americana) in the Eastern Migratory Population. This reintroduction effort has been beset by poor reproduction, apparently due primarily to nest abandonment by breeding birds. We used the model to assess support for the hypothesis that nest abandonment is caused by harassment from biting insects. We obtained indices of blood-feeding insect populations based on the spatially interpolated counts of insects captured in carbon dioxide traps. However, insect trapping was not conducted daily, and so we had incomplete information on a temporally variable covariate of interest. We therefore supplemented our nest survival model with a parallel model for estimating the values of the missing insect covariates. We used Bayesian model selection to identify the best predictors of daily nest survival. Our results suggest that the black fly Simulium annulus may be negatively affecting nest survival of reintroduced whooping cranes, with decreasing nest survival as abundance of S. annulus increases. The modeling framework we have developed will be applied in the future to a larger data set to evaluate the biting-insect hypothesis and other hypotheses for nesting failure in this reintroduced population; resulting inferences will support ongoing efforts to manage this population via an adaptive management approach. Wider application of our approach offers promise for modeling the effects of other temporally varying, but imperfectly observed covariates on nest survival, including the possibility of modeling temporally varying covariates collected from incubating adults.

Estimating stage-specific daily survival probabilities of nests when nest age is unknown

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, T.R.

2004-01-01

Estimation of daily survival probabilities of nests is common in studies of avian populations. Since the introduction of Mayfield's (1961, 1975) estimator, numerous models have been developed to relax Mayfield's assumptions and account for biologically important sources of variation. Stanley (2000) presented a model for estimating stage-specific (e.g. incubation stage, nestling stage) daily survival probabilities of nests that conditions on “nest type” and requires that nests be aged when they are found. Because aging nests typically requires handling the eggs, there may be situations where nests can not or should not be aged and the Stanley (2000) model will be inapplicable. Here, I present a model for estimating stage-specific daily survival probabilities that conditions on nest stage for active nests, thereby obviating the need to age nests when they are found. Specifically, I derive the maximum likelihood function for the model, evaluate the model's performance using Monte Carlo simulations, and provide software for estimating parameters (along with an example). For sample sizes as low as 50 nests, bias was small and confidence interval coverage was close to the nominal rate, especially when a reduced-parameter model was used for estimation.

Long-Term Climate Forcing in Loggerhead Sea Turtle Nesting

PubMed Central

Van Houtan, Kyle S.; Halley, John M.

2011-01-01

The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions—such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence. PMID:21589639

Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting.

PubMed

Van Houtan, Kyle S; Halley, John M

2011-04-27

The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions--such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence.

The added value of dynamical downscaling in a climate change scenario simulation:A case study for European Alps and East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Im, Eun-Soon; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Filippo

2010-05-01

Since anthropogenic climate change is a rather important factor for the future human life all over the planet and its effects are not globally uniform, climate information at regional or local scales become more and more important for an accurate assessment of the potential impact of climate change on societies and ecosystems. High resolution information with suitably fine-scale for resolving complex geographical features could be a critical factor for successful linkage between climate models and impact assessment studies. However, scale mismatch between them still remains major problem. One method for overcoming the resolution limitations of global climate models and for adding regional details to coarse-grid global projections is to use dynamical downscaling by means of a regional climate model. In this study, the ECHAM5/MPI-OM (1.875 degree) A1B scenario simulation has been dynamically downscaled by using two different approaches within the framework of RegCM3 modeling system. First, a mosaic-type parameterization of subgrid-scale topography and land use (Sub-BATS) is applied over the European Alpine region. The Sub-BATS system is composed of 15 km coarse-grid cell and 3 km sub-grid cell. Second, we developed the RegCM3 one-way double-nested system, with the mother domain encompassing the eastern regions of Asia at 60 km grid spacing and the nested domain covering the Korean Peninsula at 20 km grid spacing. By comparing the regional climate model output and the driving global model ECHAM5/MPI-OM output, it is possible to estimate the added value of physically-based dynamical downscaling when for example impact studies at hydrological scale are performed.

Nest temperature fluctuations in a cavity nester, the southern ground-hornbill.

PubMed

Combrink, L; Combrink, H J; Botha, A J; Downs, C T

2017-05-01

Southern ground-hornbills Bucorvus leadbeateri inhabit savanna and bushveld regions of South Africa. They nest in the austral summer, which coincides with the wet season and hottest daytime temperatures in the region. They are secondary cavity nesters and typically nest in large cavities in trees, cliffs and earth banks, but readily use artificial nest boxes. Southern ground-hornbills are listed as Endangered in South Africa, with reintroductions into suitable areas highlighted as a viable conservation intervention for the species. Nest microclimate, and the possible implications this may have for the breeding biology of southern ground-hornbills, have never been investigated. We used temperature dataloggers to record nest cavity temperature and ambient temperature for one artificial and 11 natural southern ground-hornbill tree cavity nests combined, spanning two breeding seasons. Mean hourly nest temperature, as well as mean minimum and mean maximum nest temperature, differed significantly between southern ground-hornbill nests in both breeding seasons. Mean nest temperature also differed significantly from mean ambient temperature for both seasons. Natural nest cavities provided a buffer against the ambient temperature fluctuations. The artificial nest provided little insulation against temperature extremes, being warmer and cooler than the maximum and minimum local ambient temperatures, respectively. Nest cavity temperature was not found to have an influence on the breeding success of the southern ground-hornbill groups investigated in this study. These results have potentially important implications for southern ground-hornbill conservation and artificial nest design, as they suggest that the birds can tolerate greater nest cavity temperature extremes than previously thought. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Landscape and regional context differentially affect nest parasitism and nest predation for Wood Thrush in central Virginia, USA (Presentation)

EPA Science Inventory

Many empirical studies have shown that forest-breeding songbirds suffer greater rates of nest predation and nest parasitism in smaller forest patches and in fragmented landscapes. To compare the performance of different metrics of spatial habitat configuration resulting from defo...

Nested Global Inversion for the Carbon Flux Distribution in Canada and USA from 1994 to 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, J. M.; Deng, F.; Ishizawa, M.; Ju, W.; Mo, G.; Chan, D.; Higuchi, K.; Maksyutov, S.

2007-12-01

Based on TransCom inverse modeling for 22 global regions, we developed a nested global inversion system for estimating carbon fluxes of 30 regions in North America (2 of the 22 regions are divided into 30). Irregular boundaries of these 30 regions are delineated based on ecosystem types and provincial/state borders. Synthesis Bayesian inversion is conducted in monthly steps using CO2 concentration measurements at 88 coastal and continental stations of the globe for the 1994-2003 period (NOAA GlobalView database). Responses of these stations to carbon fluxes from the 50 regions are simulated using the transport model of National Institute for Environmental Studies of Japan and reanalysis wind fields of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Terrestrial carbon flux fields modeled using BEPS and Biome-BGC driven by NCEP reanalysis meteorological data are used as two different a priori to constrain the inversion. The inversion (top- down) results are compared with remote sensing-based ecosystem modeling (bottom-up) results in Canada's forests and wetlands. There is a broad consistency in the spatial pattern of the carbon source and sink distributions obtained using these two independent methods. Both sets of results also indicate that Canada's forests and wetlands are carbon sinks in 1994-2003, but the top-down method produces consistently larger sinks than the bottom-up results. Reasons for this discrepancy may lie in both methods, and several issues are identified for further investigation.

Resource-driven changes to host population stability alter the evolution of virulence and transmission.

PubMed

Hite, Jessica L; Cressler, Clayton E

2018-05-05

What drives the evolution of parasite life-history traits? Recent studies suggest that linking within- and between-host processes can provide key insight into both disease dynamics and parasite evolution. Still, it remains difficult to understand how to pinpoint the critical factors connecting these cross-scale feedbacks, particularly under non-equilibrium conditions; many natural host populations inherently fluctuate and parasites themselves can strongly alter the stability of host populations. Here, we develop a general model framework that mechanistically links resources to parasite evolution across a gradient of stable and unstable conditions. First, we dynamically link resources and between-host processes (host density, stability, transmission) to virulence evolution, using a 'non-nested' model. Then, we consider a 'nested' model where population-level processes (transmission and virulence) depend on resource-driven changes to individual-level (within-host) processes (energetics, immune function, parasite production). Contrary to 'non-nested' model predictions, the 'nested' model reveals complex effects of host population dynamics on parasite evolution, including regions of evolutionary bistability; evolution can push parasites towards strongly or weakly stabilizing strategies. This bistability results from dynamic feedbacks between resource-driven changes to host density, host immune function and parasite production. Together, these results highlight how cross-scale feedbacks can provide key insights into the structuring role of parasites and parasite evolution.This article is part of the theme issue 'Anthropogenic resource subsidies and host-parasite dynamics in wildlife'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Simulation of Anomalous Regional Climate Events with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.

1999-01-01

The stretched-grid approach provides an efficient down-scaling and consistent interactions between global and regional scales due to using one variable-resolution model for integrations. It is a workable alternative to the widely used nested-grid approach introduced over a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. A variable-resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) employing a stretched grid, with enhanced resolution over the US as the area of interest, is used for simulating two anomalous regional climate events, the US summer drought of 1988 and flood of 1993. The special mode of integration using a stretched-grid GCM and data assimilation system is developed that allows for imitating the nested-grid framework. The mode is useful for inter-comparison purposes and for underlining the differences between these two approaches. The 1988 and 1993 integrations are performed for the two month period starting from mid May. Regional resolutions used in most of the experiments is 60 km. The major goal and the result of the study is obtaining the efficient down-scaling over the area of interest. The monthly mean prognostic regional fields for the stretched-grid integrations are remarkably close to those of the verifying analyses. Simulated precipitation patterns are successfully verified against gauge precipitation observations. The impact of finer 40 km regional resolution is investigated for the 1993 integration and an example of recovering subregional precipitation is presented. The obtained results show that the global variable-resolution stretched-grid approach is a viable candidate for regional and subregional climate studies and applications.

Interaction in Balanced Cross Nested Designs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Paulo; Mexia, João T.; Carvalho, Francisco; Covas, Ricardo

2011-09-01

Commutative Jordan Algebras, CJA, are used in the study of mixed models obtained, through crossing and nesting, from simpler ones. In the study of cross nested models the interaction between nested factors have been systematically discarded. However this can constitutes an artificial simplification of the models. We point out that, when two crossed factors interact, such interaction is symmetric, both factors playing in it equivalent roles, while when two nested factors interact, the interaction is determined by the nesting factor. These interactions will be called interactions with nesting. In this work we present a coherent formulation of the algebraic structure of models enabling the choice of families of interactions between cross and nested factors using binary operations on CJA.

Regional Climate Simulation with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM: The Regional Down-Scaling Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.; Takacs, Lawrence L.; Suarez, Max; Sawyer, William; Govindaraju, Ravi C.

1999-01-01

The results obtained with the variable resolution stretched grid (SG) GEOS GCM (Goddard Earth Observing System General Circulation Models) are discussed, with the emphasis on the regional down-scaling effects and their dependence on the stretched grid design and parameters. A variable resolution SG-GCM and SG-DAS using a global stretched grid with fine resolution over an area of interest, is a viable new approach to REGIONAL and subregional CLIMATE studies and applications. The stretched grid approach is an ideal tool for representing regional to global scale interactions. It is an alternative to the widely used nested grid approach introduced a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. The GEOS SG-GCM is used for simulations of the anomalous U.S. climate events of 1988 drought and 1993 flood, with enhanced regional resolution. The height low level jet, precipitation and other diagnostic patterns are successfully simulated and show the efficient down-scaling over the area of interest the U.S. An imitation of the nested grid approach is performed using the developed SG-DAS (Data Assimilation System) that incorporates the SG-GCM. The SG-DAS is run with withholding data over the area of interest. The design immitates the nested grid framework with boundary conditions provided from analyses. No boundary condition buffer is needed for the case due to the global domain of integration used for the SG-GCM and SG-DAS. The experiments based on the newly developed versions of the GEOS SG-GCM and SG-DAS, with finer 0.5 degree (and higher) regional resolution, are briefly discussed. The major aspects of parallelization of the SG-GCM code are outlined. The KEY OBJECTIVES of the study are: 1) obtaining an efficient DOWN-SCALING over the area of interest with fine and very fine resolution; 2) providing CONSISTENT interactions between regional and global scales including the consistent representation of regional ENERGY and WATER BALANCES; 3) providing a high computational efficiency for future SG-GCM and SG-DAS versions using PARALLEL codes.

A 2000-year European Mean Summer Temperature Reconstruction from the PAGES 2k Regional Network and Comparison to Millennium-Length Forced Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smerdon, J. E.; Büntgen, U.; Ljungqvist, F. C.; Esper, J.; Fernández-Donado, L.; Gonzalez-Rouco, F. J.; Luterbacher, J.; McCarroll, D.; Wagner, S.; Wahl, E. R.; Wanner, H.; Werner, J.; Zorita, E.

2012-12-01

A reconstruction of mean European summer (JJA) land temperatures from 138 B.C.E. to 2003 C.E. is presented and compared to 37 forced transient simulations of the last millennium from coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). Eleven annually resolved tree-ring and documentary records from ten European countries/regions were used for the reconstruction and compiled as part of the Euro_Med working group contribution to the PAGES 2k Regional Network. Records were selected based upon their summer temperature signal, annual resolution, and time-continuous sampling. All tree-ring data were detrended using the Regional Curve Standardization (RCS) method to retain low-frequency variance in the resulting mean chronologies. The calibration time series was the area-weighted JJA temperature computed from the CRUTEM4v dataset over a European land domain (35°-70°N, 10°W-40°E). A nested 'Composite-Plus-Scale' reconstruction was derived using nine nests reflecting the availability of predictors back in time. Each nest was calculated by standardizing the available predictor series over the calibration interval, and subsequently calculating a weighted composite in which each proxy was multiplied by its correlation with the target index. The CPS methodology was implemented using a resampling scheme that uses 104 years for calibration. The initial calibration period extended from 1850-1953 C.E. and was incremented by one year until reaching the final period of 1900-2003 C.E., yielding a total of 51 reconstructions for each nest. Within each calibration step, the 50 years excluded from calibration were used for validation. Validation statistics across all reconstruction ensemble members within each nest indicate skillful reconstructions (RE: 0.42-0.64; CE: 0.26-0.54) and are all above the maximum validation statistics achieved in an ensemble of red noise benchmarking experiments. Warm periods in the derived reconstruction during the 1st, 2nd, and 7th-12th centuries compare to similar warm summer temperatures during the mid 20th century, although the 2003 summer remains the warmest single summer over the duration of the reconstruction. A relative period of cold summer temperatures is also noted from the 14th-19th centuries, consistent with the expected timing of the Little Ice Age. The nested CPS reconstruction is also compared to a 37-member ensemble of millennium-length forced transient simulations from CGCMs, including eleven simulations from the collection of CMIP5/PMIP3 last-millennium experiments. The simulations are separated based on their use of strong or weak scaling of total solar irradiance (TSI) forcing over the last millennium. Although both ensembles of simulated mean European temperatures compare well with the nested CPS reconstruction, there is some evidence that there is better agreement with the ensemble using strong TSI as forcing.

Multi-model projections of Indian summer monsoon climate changes under A1B scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, X.; Wang, S.; Tang, J.

2016-12-01

As part of the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia, the projections of Indian summer monsoon climate changes are constructed using three global climate models (GCMs) and seven regional climate models (RCMs) during 2041-2060 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B emission scenario. For the control climate of 1981-2000, most nested RCMs show advantage over the driving GCM of European Centre/Hamburg Fifth Generation (ECHAM5) in the temporal-spatial distributions of temperature and precipitation over Indian Peninsula. Following the driving GCM of ECHAM5, most nested RCMs produce advanced monsoon onset in the control climate. For future climate widespread summer warming is projected over Indian Peninsula by all climate models, with the Multi-RCMs ensemble mean (MME) temperature increasing of 1°C to 2.5°C and the maximum warming center located in northern Indian Peninsula. While for the precipitation, a large inter-model spread is projected by RCMs, with wetter condition in MME projections and significant increase over southern India. Driven by the same GCM, most RCMs project advanced monsoon onset while delayed onset is found in two Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) projections, indicating uncertainty can be expected in the Indian Summer Monsoon onset. All climate models except Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model with equal resolution (referred as CCAMP) and two RegCM3 models project stronger summer monsoon during 2041-2060. The disagreement in precipitation projections by RCMs indicates that the surface climate change on regional scale is not only dominated by the large-scale forcing which is provided by driving GCM but also sensitive to RCM' internal physics.

On The Development of One-way Nesting of Air-pollution Model Smog Into Numerical Weather Prediction Model Eta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halenka, T.; Bednar, J.; Brechler, J.

The spatial distribution of air pollution on the regional scale (Bohemian region) is simulated by means of Charles University puff model SMOG. The results are used for the assessment of the concentration fields of ozone, nitrogen oxides and other ozone precursors. Current improved version of the model covers up to 16 groups of basic compounds and it is based on trajectory computation and puff interaction both by means of Gaussian diffusion mixing and chemical reactions of basic species. Gener- ally, the method used for trajectory computation is valuable mainly for episodes sim- ulation, nevertheless, climatological study can be solved as well by means of average wind rose. For the study being presented huge database of real emission sources was incorporated with all kind of sources included. Some problem with the background values of concentrations was removed. The model SMOG has been nested into the forecast model ETA to obtain appropriate meteorological data input. We can estimate air pollution characteristics both for episodes analysis and the prediction of future air quality conditions. Necessary prognostic variables from the numerical weather pre- diction model are taken for the region of the central Bohemia, where the original puff model was tested. We used mainly 850 hPa wind field for computation of prognos- tic trajectories, the influence of surface temperature as a parameter of photochemistry reactions as well as the effect of cloudness has been tested.

A nested numerical tidal model of the southern New England bight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gordon, R. B.; Spaulding, M. L.

1979-01-01

Efforts were focused on the development and application of a three-dimensional numerical model for predicting pollutant and sediment transport in estuarine and coastal environments. To successfully apply the pollutant and sediment transport model to Rhode Island coastal waters, it was determined that the flow field in this region had to be better described through the use of existing numerical circulation models. A nested, barotropic numerical tidal model was applied to the southern New England Bight (Long Island, Block Island, Rhode Island Sounds, Buzzards Bay, and the shelf south of Block Island). Forward time and centered spatial differences were employed with the bottom friction term evaluated at both time levels. Using existing tide records on the New England shelf, adequate information was available to specify the tide height boundary condition further out on the shelf. Preliminary results are within the accuracy of the National Ocean Survey tide table data.

Nesting large-eddy simulations within mesoscale simulations for wind energy applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lundquist, J K; Mirocha, J D; Chow, F K

2008-09-08

With increasing demand for more accurate atmospheric simulations for wind turbine micrositing, for operational wind power forecasting, and for more reliable turbine design, simulations of atmospheric flow with resolution of tens of meters or higher are required. These time-dependent large-eddy simulations (LES), which resolve individual atmospheric eddies on length scales smaller than turbine blades and account for complex terrain, are possible with a range of commercial and open-source software, including the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In addition to 'local' sources of turbulence within an LES domain, changing weather conditions outside the domain can also affect flow, suggesting thatmore » a mesoscale model provide boundary conditions to the large-eddy simulations. Nesting a large-eddy simulation within a mesoscale model requires nuanced representations of turbulence. Our group has improved the Weather and Research Forecasting model's (WRF) LES capability by implementing the Nonlinear Backscatter and Anisotropy (NBA) subfilter stress model following Kosovic (1997) and an explicit filtering and reconstruction technique to compute the Resolvable Subfilter-Scale (RSFS) stresses (following Chow et al, 2005). We have also implemented an immersed boundary method (IBM) in WRF to accommodate complex terrain. These new models improve WRF's LES capabilities over complex terrain and in stable atmospheric conditions. We demonstrate approaches to nesting LES within a mesoscale simulation for farms of wind turbines in hilly regions. Results are sensitive to the nesting method, indicating that care must be taken to provide appropriate boundary conditions, and to allow adequate spin-up of turbulence in the LES domain.« less

Modeling tides and their influence on the circulation in Prince William Sound, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaochun; Chao, Yi; Zhang, Hongchun; Farrara, John; Li, Zhijin; Jin, Xin; Park, Kyungeen; Colas, Francois; McWilliams, James C.; Paternostro, Chris; Shum, C. K.; Yi, Yuchan; Schoch, Carl; Olsson, Peter

2013-07-01

In the process of developing a real-time data-assimilating coastal ocean forecasting system for Prince William Sound, Alaska, tidal signal was added to a three-domain nested model for the region. The model, which is configured from the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), has 40 levels in the vertical direction and horizontal resolutions of 10.6km, 3.6km and 1.2km for its three nested domains, respectively. In the present research, the ROMS tidal solution was validated using data from coastal tide gauges, satellite altimeters, high-frequency coastal radars, and Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) current surveys. The error of barotropic tides, as measured by the total root mean square discrepancy of eight major tidal constituents is 5.3cm, or 5.6% of the tidal sea surface height variability in the open ocean. Along the coastal region, the total discrepancy is 9.6cm, or 8.2% of the tidal sea surface height variability. Model tidal currents agree reasonably well with the observations. The influence of tides on the circulation was also investigated using numerical experiments. Besides tides, other types of forcing fields (heat flux, wind stress, evaporation minus precipitation, and freshwater discharge) were also included in the model. Our results indicate that tides play a significant role in shaping the mean circulation of the region. For the summer months, the tidal residual circulation tends to generate a cyclonic gyre in the central Sound. The net transport into the Sound through Hinchinbrook Entrance is reduced. Tides also increase the mixed layer depth in the Sound, especially during the winter months.

Reproductive ecology of American Oystercatchers nesting on shell rakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jodice, Patrick G.R.; Thibault, Janet M.; Collins, S.A.; Spinks, Mark D.; Sanders, Felicia J.

2014-01-01

Degradation of nesting habitat for coastal birds has led to the use of nontraditional nesting habitat. The American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) is listed as a "Species of High Concern'' by the U. S. Shorebird Conservation Plan and is declining in the southern portion of its U. S. breeding range, where ~ 50% of breeding oystercatchers nest on shell substrate instead of beachfront habitat. We measured daily survival rates during incubation and chick rearing in shell rake habitats over five breeding seasons in the Cape Romain region of South Carolina, USA. Of 354 nesting attempts monitored, 16.1% hatched at least one egg. During incubation, daily survival rate was 0.938, corresponding to 22.8% success to hatching (nest success). For broods, daily survival was 0.991, or 74.0% success from hatching to fledging. Productivity in the Cape Romain region is primarily being lost during the incubation phase, when nests are exposed to overwash and predation. Mobile chicks may, however, be able to avoid flood events or predators by relocating to higher or more protected portions of a shell rake. Based on comparative data for American Oystercatchers from elsewhere in their range, it does not appear that shell rakes in the Cape Romain region are inferior breeding habitat. Our data suggest that conservation actions targeting nest and chick loss from flooding and predation have the greatest opportunity to enhance reproductive success in this core breeding area, and that an assessment of the availability, structure, avian use, and protection status of shell rakes is warranted.

Timing of nest vegetation measurement may obscure adaptive significance of nest-site characteristics: A simulation study.

PubMed

McConnell, Mark D; Monroe, Adrian P; Burger, Loren Wes; Martin, James A

2017-02-01

Advances in understanding avian nesting ecology are hindered by a prevalent lack of agreement between nest-site characteristics and fitness metrics such as nest success. We posit this is a result of inconsistent and improper timing of nest-site vegetation measurements. Therefore, we evaluated how the timing of nest vegetation measurement influences the estimated effects of vegetation structure on nest survival. We simulated phenological changes in nest-site vegetation growth over a typical nesting season and modeled how the timing of measuring that vegetation, relative to nest fate, creates bias in conclusions regarding its influence on nest survival. We modeled the bias associated with four methods of measuring nest-site vegetation: Method 1-measuring at nest initiation, Method 2-measuring at nest termination regardless of fate, Method 3-measuring at nest termination for successful nests and at estimated completion for unsuccessful nests, and Method 4-measuring at nest termination regardless of fate while also accounting for initiation date. We quantified and compared bias for each method for varying simulated effects, ranked models for each method using AIC, and calculated the proportion of simulations in which each model (measurement method) was selected as the best model. Our results indicate that the risk of drawing an erroneous or spurious conclusion was present in all methods but greater with Method 2 which is the most common method reported in the literature. Methods 1 and 3 were similarly less biased. Method 4 provided no additional value as bias was similar to Method 2 for all scenarios. While Method 1 is seldom practical to collect in the field, Method 3 is logistically practical and minimizes inherent bias. Implementation of Method 3 will facilitate estimating the effect of nest-site vegetation on survival, in the least biased way, and allow reliable conclusions to be drawn.

Detection of low plasma estradiol concentrations in nesting green turtles (Chelonia mydas) by HPLC/Ms-Ms.

PubMed

Mahmoud, I Y; Alkindi, A Y; Khan, T; Al-Bahry, S N

2011-03-01

In previous studies on nesting green turtles under natural conditions from different geographical regions, 17-β-estradiol (E(2) ) was either undetectable or detected at very low levels. RIA and other related techniques were not sensitive enough to measure low E(2) values in the green turtles. In this study, a sensitive method was used in detecting low hormone concentrations: high performance liquid chromatography with tandem quadruple mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/MS). Using this technique, estradiol for the first time was detected in nesting green turtles during the peak season (June-October) at Ras Al-Hadd Reserve, Oman. The E(2) values recorded from this study were the highest ever recorded from nesting green turtles in any geographical region, but the levels did not vary significantly throughout different phases of nesting. The presence of E(2) during nesting presumably plays a role in the physiology and behavior of this species. Ras Al-Hadd hosts one of the largest nesting populations of green turtles in the world, and an understanding of their nesting patterns may be of value in conservation and management programs for this endangered species. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc., A Wiley Company.

From neurons to nests: nest-building behaviour as a model in behavioural and comparative neuroscience.

PubMed

Hall, Zachary J; Meddle, Simone L; Healy, Susan D

Despite centuries of observing the nest building of most extant bird species, we know surprisingly little about how birds build nests and, specifically, how the avian brain controls nest building. Here, we argue that nest building in birds may be a useful model behaviour in which to study how the brain controls behaviour. Specifically, we argue that nest building as a behavioural model provides a unique opportunity to study not only the mechanisms through which the brain controls behaviour within individuals of a single species but also how evolution may have shaped the brain to produce interspecific variation in nest-building behaviour. In this review, we outline the questions in both behavioural and comparative neuroscience that nest building could be used to address, summarize recent findings regarding the neurobiology of nest building in lab-reared zebra finches and across species building different nest structures, and suggest some future directions for the neurobiology of nest building.

Inverse modeling of pan-Arctic methane emissions at high spatial resolution: what can we learn from assimilating satellite retrievals and using different process-based wetland and lake biogeochemical models?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tan, Zeli; Zhuang, Qianlai; Henze, Daven K.

Understanding methane emissions from the Arctic, a fast-warming carbon reservoir, is important for projecting future changes in the global methane cycle. Here we optimized methane emissions from north of 60° N (pan-Arctic) regions using a nested-grid high-resolution inverse model that assimilates both high-precision surface measurements and column-average SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartogrphY (SCIAMACHY) satellite retrievals of methane mole fraction. For the first time, methane emissions from lakes were integrated into an atmospheric transport and inversion estimate, together with prior wetland emissions estimated with six biogeochemical models. In our estimates, in 2005, global methane emissions were in the range ofmore » 496.4–511.5 Tg yr −1, and pan-Arctic methane emissions were in the range of 11.9–28.5 Tg yr −1. Methane emissions from pan-Arctic wetlands and lakes were 5.5–14.2 and 2.4–14.2 Tg yr −1, respectively. Methane emissions from Siberian wetlands and lakes are the largest and also have the largest uncertainty. Our results indicate that the uncertainty introduced by different wetland models could be much larger than the uncertainty of each inversion. We also show that assimilating satellite retrievals can reduce the uncertainty of the nested-grid inversions. The significance of lake emissions cannot be identified across the pan-Arctic by high-resolution inversions, but it is possible to identify high lake emissions from some specific regions. In contrast to global inversions, high-resolution nested-grid inversions perform better in estimating near-surface methane concentrations.« less

Inverse modeling of pan-Arctic methane emissions at high spatial resolution: what can we learn from assimilating satellite retrievals and using different process-based wetland and lake biogeochemical models?

DOE PAGES

Tan, Zeli; Zhuang, Qianlai; Henze, Daven K.; ...

2016-10-12

Understanding methane emissions from the Arctic, a fast-warming carbon reservoir, is important for projecting future changes in the global methane cycle. Here we optimized methane emissions from north of 60° N (pan-Arctic) regions using a nested-grid high-resolution inverse model that assimilates both high-precision surface measurements and column-average SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartogrphY (SCIAMACHY) satellite retrievals of methane mole fraction. For the first time, methane emissions from lakes were integrated into an atmospheric transport and inversion estimate, together with prior wetland emissions estimated with six biogeochemical models. In our estimates, in 2005, global methane emissions were in the range ofmore » 496.4–511.5 Tg yr −1, and pan-Arctic methane emissions were in the range of 11.9–28.5 Tg yr −1. Methane emissions from pan-Arctic wetlands and lakes were 5.5–14.2 and 2.4–14.2 Tg yr −1, respectively. Methane emissions from Siberian wetlands and lakes are the largest and also have the largest uncertainty. Our results indicate that the uncertainty introduced by different wetland models could be much larger than the uncertainty of each inversion. We also show that assimilating satellite retrievals can reduce the uncertainty of the nested-grid inversions. The significance of lake emissions cannot be identified across the pan-Arctic by high-resolution inversions, but it is possible to identify high lake emissions from some specific regions. In contrast to global inversions, high-resolution nested-grid inversions perform better in estimating near-surface methane concentrations.« less

Caribou antlers as nest materials for golden eagles in northwestern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellis, D.H.; Bunn, R.L.

1998-01-01

There are few published records of antlers in golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) nests. This note reports extensive use of caribou (Rangifer tarandus) antlers in three golden eagle nests in the Cape Kruzenstern region of northwestern Alaska. The importance of antlers to this population of eagles can be explained at least in part by (1) the lack of suitable woody vegetation on the open tundra, (2) the similarity of antlers to sticks, and (3) the abundance of antlers, especially cow caribou antlers, in the region.

Wave Resource Characterization Using an Unstructured Grid Modeling Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Wei-Cheng; Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping

This paper presents a modeling study conducted on the central Oregon coast for wave resource characterization using the unstructured-grid SWAN model coupled with a nested-grid WWIII model. The flexibility of models of various spatial resolutions and the effects of open- boundary conditions simulated by a nested-grid WWIII model with different physics packages were evaluated. The model results demonstrate the advantage of the unstructured-grid modeling approach for flexible model resolution and good model skills in simulating the six wave resource parameters recommended by the International Electrotechnical Commission in comparison to the observed data in Year 2009 at National Data Buoy Centermore » Buoy 46050. Notably, spectral analysis indicates that the ST4 physics package improves upon the model skill of the ST2 physics package for predicting wave power density for large waves, which is important for wave resource assessment, device load calculation, and risk management. In addition, bivariate distributions show the simulated sea state of maximum occurrence with the ST4 physics package matched the observed data better than that with the ST2 physics package. This study demonstrated that the unstructured-grid wave modeling approach, driven by the nested-grid regional WWIII outputs with the ST4 physics package, can efficiently provide accurate wave hindcasts to support wave resource characterization. Our study also suggests that wind effects need to be considered if the dimension of the model domain is greater than approximately 100 km, or O (10^2 km).« less

Waterfowl productivity and use of nesting structures in the prairie pothole region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Rex R.; Higgins, Kenneth F.; Ball, I.J.; Kohn, Stan C.

1994-01-01

Over-water duck nests are usually more successful than upland nests. We evaluated mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and giant Canada goose (Branta canadensis maxima) use of nest baskets, straw and hay bales, and earth-filled culverts and determined nesting success rates by structure type during 1987-1989. Mallards used bales and culverts more than baskets, whereas Canada geese used baskets more than bales or culverts. Nesting success was greatest for baskets and culverts (>80%) and lowest for bales (58.3%). Logistics aside, culverts appear to be the most valuable nesting structures for mallards, and baskets are the most valuable structures for Canada geese.

Nesting phenology of marine turtles: insights from a regional comparative analysis on green turtle (Chelonia mydas).

PubMed

Dalleau, Mayeul; Ciccione, Stéphane; Mortimer, Jeanne A; Garnier, Julie; Benhamou, Simon; Bourjea, Jérôme

2012-01-01

Changes in phenology, the timing of seasonal activities, are among the most frequently observed responses to environmental disturbances and in marine species are known to occur in response to climate changes that directly affects ocean temperature, biogeochemical composition and sea level. We examined nesting seasonality data from long-term studies at 8 green turtle (Chelonia mydas) rookeries that include 21 specific nesting sites in the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO). We demonstrated that temperature drives patterns of nesting seasonality at the regional scale. We found a significant correlation between mean annual Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and dates of peak nesting with rookeries exposed to higher SST having a delayed nesting peak. This supports the hypothesis that temperature is the main factor determining peak nesting dates. We also demonstrated a spatial synchrony in nesting activity amongst multiple rookeries in the northern part of the SWIO (Aldabra, Glorieuses, Mohéli, Mayotte) but not with the eastern and southern rookeries (Europa, Tromelin), differences which could be attributed to females with sharply different adult foraging conditions. However, we did not detect a temporal trend in the nesting peak date over the study period or an inter-annual relation between nesting peak date and SST. The findings of our study provide a better understanding of the processes that drive marine species phenology. The findings will also help to predict their ability to cope with climate change and other environmental perturbations. Despite demonstrating this spatial shift in nesting phenology, no trend in the alteration of nesting dates over more than 20 years was found.

Nesting Phenology of Marine Turtles: Insights from a Regional Comparative Analysis on Green Turtle (Chelonia mydas)

PubMed Central

Dalleau, Mayeul; Ciccione, Stéphane; Mortimer, Jeanne A.; Garnier, Julie; Benhamou, Simon; Bourjea, Jérôme

2012-01-01

Changes in phenology, the timing of seasonal activities, are among the most frequently observed responses to environmental disturbances and in marine species are known to occur in response to climate changes that directly affects ocean temperature, biogeochemical composition and sea level. We examined nesting seasonality data from long-term studies at 8 green turtle (Chelonia mydas) rookeries that include 21 specific nesting sites in the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO). We demonstrated that temperature drives patterns of nesting seasonality at the regional scale. We found a significant correlation between mean annual Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and dates of peak nesting with rookeries exposed to higher SST having a delayed nesting peak. This supports the hypothesis that temperature is the main factor determining peak nesting dates. We also demonstrated a spatial synchrony in nesting activity amongst multiple rookeries in the northern part of the SWIO (Aldabra, Glorieuses, Mohéli, Mayotte) but not with the eastern and southern rookeries (Europa, Tromelin), differences which could be attributed to females with sharply different adult foraging conditions. However, we did not detect a temporal trend in the nesting peak date over the study period or an inter-annual relation between nesting peak date and SST. The findings of our study provide a better understanding of the processes that drive marine species phenology. The findings will also help to predict their ability to cope with climate change and other environmental perturbations. Despite demonstrating this spatial shift in nesting phenology, no trend in the alteration of nesting dates over more than 20 years was found. PMID:23056527

Temporal changes in artificial light exposure of marine turtle nesting areas.

PubMed

Kamrowski, Ruth L; Limpus, Col; Jones, Rhondda; Anderson, Sharolyn; Hamann, Mark

2014-08-01

Artificial light at night poses a significant threat to multiple taxa across the globe. In coastal regions, artificial lighting close to marine turtle nesting beaches is disruptive to their breeding success. Prioritizing effective management of light pollution requires an understanding of how the light exposure of nesting areas changes over time in response to changing temporal and spatial distributions of coastal development. We analyzed multitemporal, satellite night-light data, in combination with linear mixed model analysis, to determine broadscale changes in artificial light exposure at Australian marine turtle nesting areas between 1993 and 2010. We found seven marine turtle management units (MU), from five species, have experienced significant increases in light exposure over time, with flatback turtles nesting in east Australia experiencing the fastest increases. The remaining 12 MUs showed no significant change in light exposure. Unchanging MUs included those previously identified as having high exposure to light pollution (located in western Australia and southern Queensland), indicating that turtles in these areas have been potentially exposed to high light levels since at least the early nineties. At a finer geographic scale (within-MU), nine MUs contained nesting areas with significant increases in light exposure. These nesting areas predominantly occurred close to heavily industrialized coastal areas, thus emphasizing the importance of rigorous light management in industry. Within all MUs, nesting areas existed where light levels were extremely low and/or had not significantly increased since 1993. With continued coastal development, nesting females may shift to these darker/unchanging 'buffer' areas in the future. This is valuable information that informs our understanding of the capacity and resilience of marine turtles faced with coastal development: an understanding that is essential for effective marine turtle conservation. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Model estimation of land-use effects on water levels of northern Prairie wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Voldseth, R.A.; Johnson, W.C.; Gilmanov, T.; Guntenspergen, G.R.; Millett, B.V.

2007-01-01

Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region exist in a matrix of grassland dominated by intensive pastoral and cultivation agriculture. Recent conservation management has emphasized the conversion of cultivated farmland and degraded pastures to intact grassland to improve upland nesting habitat. The consequences of changes in land-use cover that alter watershed processes have not been evaluated relative to their effect on the water budgets and vegetation dynamics of associated wetlands. We simulated the effect of upland agricultural practices on the water budget and vegetation of a semipermanent prairie wetland by modifying a previously published mathematical model (WETSIM). Watershed cover/land-use practices were categorized as unmanaged grassland (native grass, smooth brome), managed grassland (moderately heavily grazed, prescribed burned), cultivated crops (row crop, small grain), and alfalfa hayland. Model simulations showed that differing rates of evapotranspiration and runoff associated with different upland plant-cover categories in the surrounding catchment produced differences in wetland water budgets and linked ecological dynamics. Wetland water levels were highest and vegetation the most dynamic under the managed-grassland simulations, while water levels were the lowest and vegetation the least dynamic under the unmanaged-grassland simulations. The modeling results suggest that unmanaged grassland, often planted for waterfowl nesting, may produce the least favorable wetland conditions for birds, especially in drier regions of the Prairie Pothole Region. These results stand as hypotheses that urgently need to be verified with empirical data.

An aerial sightability model for estimating ferruginous hawk population size

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ayers, L.W.; Anderson, S.H.

1999-01-01

Most raptor aerial survey projects have focused on numeric description of visibility bias without identifying the contributing factors or developing predictive models to account for imperfect detection rates. Our goal was to develop a sightability model for nesting ferruginous hawks (Buteo regalis) that could account for nests missed during aerial surveys and provide more accurate population estimates. Eighteen observers, all unfamiliar with nest locations in a known population, searched for nests within 300 m of flight transects via a Maule fixed-wing aircraft. Flight variables tested for their influence on nest-detection rates included aircraft speed, height, direction of travel, time of day, light condition, distance to nest, and observer experience level. Nest variables included status (active vs. inactive), condition (i.e., excellent, good, fair, poor, bad), substrate type, topography, and tree density. A multiple logistic regression model identified nest substrate type, distance to nest, and observer experience level as significant predictors of detection rates (P < 0.05). The overall model was significant (??26 = 124.4, P < 0.001, n = 255 nest observations), and the correct classification rate was 78.4%. During 2 validation surveys, observers saw 23.7% (14/59) and 36.5% (23/63) of the actual population. Sightability model predictions, with 90% confidence intervals, captured the true population in both tests. Our results indicate standardized aerial surveys, when used in conjunction with the predictive sightability model, can provide unbiased population estimates for nesting ferruginous hawks.

Integration of coastal inundation modeling from storm tides to individual waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ning; Roeber, Volker; Yamazaki, Yoshiki; Heitmann, Troy W.; Bai, Yefei; Cheung, Kwok Fai

2014-11-01

Modeling of storm-induced coastal inundation has primarily focused on the surge generated by atmospheric pressure and surface winds with phase-averaged effects of the waves as setup. Through an interoperable model package, we investigate the role of phase-resolving wave processes in simulation of coastal flood hazards. A spectral ocean wave model describes generation and propagation of storm waves from deep to intermediate water, while a non-hydrostatic storm-tide model has the option to couple with a spectral coastal wave model for computation of phase-averaged processes in a near-shore region. The ocean wave and storm-tide models can alternatively provide the wave spectrum and the surface elevation as the boundary and initial conditions for a nested Boussinesq model. Additional surface-gradient terms in the Boussinesq equations maintain the quasi-steady, non-uniform storm tide for modeling of phase-resolving surf and swash-zone processes as well as combined tide, surge, and wave inundation. The two nesting schemes are demonstrated through a case study of Hurricane Iniki, which made landfall on the Hawaiian Island of Kauai in 1992. With input from a parametric hurricane model and global reanalysis and tidal datasets, the two approaches produce comparable significant wave heights and phase-averaged surface elevations in the surf zone. The nesting of the Boussinesq model provides a seamless approach to augment the inundation due to the individual waves in matching the recorded debris line along the coast.

Greater shrub dominance alters breeding habitat and food resources for migratory songbirds in Alaskan arctic tundra.

PubMed

Boelman, Natalie T; Gough, Laura; Wingfield, John; Goetz, Scott; Asmus, Ashley; Chmura, Helen E; Krause, Jesse S; Perez, Jonathan H; Sweet, Shannan K; Guay, Kevin C

2015-04-01

Climate warming is affecting the Arctic in multiple ways, including via increased dominance of deciduous shrubs. Although many studies have focused on how this vegetation shift is altering nutrient cycling and energy balance, few have explicitly considered effects on tundra fauna, such as the millions of migratory songbirds that breed in northern regions every year. To understand how increasing deciduous shrub dominance may alter breeding songbird habitat, we quantified vegetation and arthropod community characteristics in both graminoid and shrub dominated tundra. We combined measurements of preferred nest site characteristics for Lapland longspurs (Calcarius lapponicus) and Gambel's White-crowned sparrows (Zonotrichia leucophrys gambelii) with modeled predictions for the distribution of plant community types in the Alaskan arctic foothills region for the year 2050. Lapland longspur nests were found in sedge-dominated tussock tundra where shrub height does not exceed 20 cm, whereas White-crowned sparrows nested only under shrubs between 20 cm and 1 m in height, with no preference for shrub species. Shrub canopies had higher canopy-dwelling arthropod availability (i.e. small flies and spiders) but lower ground-dwelling arthropod availability (i.e. large spiders and beetles). Since flies are the birds' preferred prey, increasing shrubs may result in a net enhancement in preferred prey availability. Acknowledging the coarse resolution of existing tundra vegetation models, we predict that by 2050 there will be a northward shift in current White-crowned sparrow habitat range and a 20-60% increase in their preferred habitat extent, while Lapland longspur habitat extent will be equivalently reduced. Our findings can be used to make first approximations of future habitat change for species with similar nesting requirements. However, we contend that as exemplified by this study's findings, existing tundra modeling tools cannot yet simulate the fine-scale habitat characteristics that are critical to accurately predicting future habitat extent for many wildlife species. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Molecular diagnosis of lyssaviruses and sequence comparison of Australian bat lyssavirus samples.

PubMed

Foord, A J; Heine, H G; Pritchard, L I; Lunt, R A; Newberry, K M; Rootes, C L; Boyle, D B

2006-07-01

To evaluate and implement molecular diagnostic tests for the detection of lyssaviruses in Australia. A published hemi-nested reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for the detection of all lyssavirus genotypes was modified to a fully nested RT-PCR format and compared with the original assay. TaqMan assays for the detection of Australian bat lyssavirus (ABLV) were compared with both the nested and hemi-nested RT-PCR assays. The sequences of RT-PCR products were determined to assess sequence variations of the target region (nucleocapsid gene) in samples of ABLV originating from different regions. The nested RT-PCR assay was highly analytically specific, and at least as analytically sensitive as the hemi-nested assay. The TaqMan assays were highly analytically specific and more analytically sensitive than either RT-PCR assay, with a detection level of approximately 10 genome equivalents per microl. Sequence of the first 544 nucleotides of the nucleocapsid protein coding sequence was obtained from all samples of ABLV received at Australian Animal Health Laboratory during the study period. The nested RT-PCR provided a means for molecular diagnosis of all tested genotypes of lyssavirus including classical rabies virus and Australian bat lyssavirus. The published TaqMan assay proved to be superior to the RT-PCR assays for the detection of ABLV in terms of analytical sensitivity. The TaqMan assay would also be faster and cross contamination is less likely. Nucleotide sequence analyses of samples of ABLV from a wide geographical range in Australia demonstrated the conserved nature of this region of the genome and therefore the suitability of this region for molecular diagnosis.

A boundary condition for layer to level ocean model interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mask, A.; O'Brien, J.; Preller, R.

2003-04-01

A radiation boundary condition based on vertical normal modes is introduced to allow a physical transition between nested/coupled ocean models that are of differing vertical structure and/or differing physics. In this particular study, a fine resolution regional/coastal sigma-coordinate Naval Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) has been successfully nested to a coarse resolution (in the horizontal and vertical) basin scale NCOM and a coarse resolution basin scale Navy Layered Ocean Model (NLOM). Both of these models were developed at the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) at Stennis Space Center, Mississippi, USA. This new method, which decomposes the vertical structure of the models into barotropic and baroclinic modes, gives improved results in the coastal domain over Orlanski radiation boundary conditions for the test cases. The principle reason for the improvement is that each mode has the radiation boundary condition applied individually; therefore, the packet of information passing through the boundary is allowed to have multiple phase speeds instead of a single-phase speed. Allowing multiple phase speeds reduces boundary reflections, thus improving results.

Application of a Nested Modeling Approach Using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the Southeastern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lafontaine, J.; Hay, L.; Viger, R.; Markstrom, S. L.

2010-12-01

In order to help environmental resource managers assess potential effects of climate change on ecosystems, the Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) began in 2009. One component of the SERAP is development and calibration of a set of multi-resolution hydrologic models of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin. The ACF River Basin is home to multiple fish and wildlife species of conservation concern, is regionally important for water supply, and has been a recent focus of complementary environmental and climate-change research. Hydrologic models of varying spatial extents and resolutions are required to address varied local to regional water-resource management questions as required by the scope and limits of potential management actions. These models were developed using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). The coarse-resolution model for the ACF Basin has a contributing area of approximately 19,200 mi2 with the model outlet located at the USGS streamflow gage on the Apalachicola River near Sumatra, Florida. Six fine-resolution PRMS models ranging in size from 153 mi2 to 1,040 mi2 are nested within the coarse-scale model, and have been developed for the following basins: upper Chattahoochee, Chestatee, and Chipola Rivers, Ichawaynochaway, Potato, and Spring Creeks. All of the models simulate basin hydrology using a daily time-step, measured climate data, and basin characteristics such as land cover and topography. Measured streamflow data are used to calibrate and evaluate computed basin hydrology. Land cover projections will be used in conjunction with downscaled Global Climate Model results to project future hydrologic conditions for this set of models.

Whole-body PET parametric imaging employing direct 4D nested reconstruction and a generalized non-linear Patlak model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karakatsanis, Nicolas A.; Rahmim, Arman

2014-03-01

Graphical analysis is employed in the research setting to provide quantitative estimation of PET tracer kinetics from dynamic images at a single bed. Recently, we proposed a multi-bed dynamic acquisition framework enabling clinically feasible whole-body parametric PET imaging by employing post-reconstruction parameter estimation. In addition, by incorporating linear Patlak modeling within the system matrix, we enabled direct 4D reconstruction in order to effectively circumvent noise amplification in dynamic whole-body imaging. However, direct 4D Patlak reconstruction exhibits a relatively slow convergence due to the presence of non-sparse spatial correlations in temporal kinetic analysis. In addition, the standard Patlak model does not account for reversible uptake, thus underestimating the influx rate Ki. We have developed a novel whole-body PET parametric reconstruction framework in the STIR platform, a widely employed open-source reconstruction toolkit, a) enabling accelerated convergence of direct 4D multi-bed reconstruction, by employing a nested algorithm to decouple the temporal parameter estimation from the spatial image update process, and b) enhancing the quantitative performance particularly in regions with reversible uptake, by pursuing a non-linear generalized Patlak 4D nested reconstruction algorithm. A set of published kinetic parameters and the XCAT phantom were employed for the simulation of dynamic multi-bed acquisitions. Quantitative analysis on the Ki images demonstrated considerable acceleration in the convergence of the nested 4D whole-body Patlak algorithm. In addition, our simulated and patient whole-body data in the postreconstruction domain indicated the quantitative benefits of our extended generalized Patlak 4D nested reconstruction for tumor diagnosis and treatment response monitoring.

A simple, physiologically-based model of sea turtle remigration intervals and nesting population dynamics: Effects of temperature.

PubMed

Neeman, Noga; Spotila, James R; O'Connor, Michael P

2015-09-07

Variation in the yearly number of sea turtles nesting at rookeries can interfere with population estimates and obscure real population dynamics. Previous theoretical models suggested that this variation in nesting numbers may be driven by changes in resources at the foraging grounds. We developed a physiologically-based model that uses temperatures at foraging sites to predict foraging conditions, resource accumulation, remigration probabilities, and, ultimately, nesting numbers for a stable population of sea turtles. We used this model to explore several scenarios of temperature variation at the foraging grounds, including one-year perturbations and cyclical temperature oscillations. We found that thermally driven resource variation can indeed synchronize nesting in groups of turtles, creating cohorts, but that these cohorts tend to break down over 5-10 years unless regenerated by environmental conditions. Cohorts were broken down faster at lower temperatures. One-year perturbations of low temperature had a synchronizing effect on nesting the following year, while high temperature perturbations tended to delay nesting in a less synchronized way. Cyclical temperatures lead to cyclical responses both in nesting numbers and remigration intervals, with the amplitude and lag of the response depending on the duration of the cycle. Overall, model behavior is consistent with observations at nesting beaches. Future work should focus on refining the model to fit particular nesting populations and testing further whether or not it may be used to predict observed nesting numbers and remigration intervals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contaminant exposure and reproductive success of Ospreys (Pandion haliaetus) nesting in Chesapeake Bay regions of concern

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rattner, B.A.; McGowan, P.C.; Golden, N.H.; Hatfield, J.S.; Toschik, P.C.; Lukei, R.F.; Hale, R.C.; Schmitz-Afonso, I.; Rice, C.P.

2004-01-01

The Chesapeake Bay osprey population has more than doubled in size since restrictions were placed on the production and use of DDT and other toxic organochlorine contaminants in the 1970s. Ospreys are now nesting in the most highly polluted portions of the Bay. In 2000 and 2001, contaminant exposure and reproduction were monitored in ospreys nesting in regions of concern, including Baltimore Harbor and the Patapsco River, the Anacostia and middle Potomac rivers, and the Elizabeth River, and a presumed reference site consisting of the South, West, and Rhode rivers. A 'sample egg' from each study nest was collected for contaminant analysis, and the fate of eggs remaining in each nest (n = 14-16/site) was monitored at 7- to 10-day intervals from egg incubation through fledging of young. Ospreys fledged young in regions of concern (observed success: 0.88 -1.53 fledglings/active nest), although productivity was marginal for sustaining local populations in Baltimore Harbor and the Patapsco River and in the Anacostia and middle Potomac rivers. Concentrations of p,p'DDE and many other organochlorine pesticides or metabolites, total PCBs, some arylhydrocarbon receptor-active PCB congeners and polybrominated diphenyl ether congeners, and perfluorooctanesulfonate were often greater in sample eggs from regions of concern compared to the reference site. Nonetheless, logistic regression analyses did not provide evidence linking marginal productivity to p,p' -DDE, total PCBs, or arylhydrocarbon receptor-active PCB congener exposure in regions of concern. In view of the moderate concentrations of total PCBs in eggs from the reference site, concerns related to new and emerging toxicants, and the absence of ecotoxicological data for terrestrial vertebrates in many Bay tributaries, a more thorough spatial evaluation of contaminant exposure in ospreys throughout the Chesapeake may be warranted.

Mapping risk for nest predation on a barrier island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hackney, Amanda D.; Baldwin, Robert F.; Jodice, Patrick G.R.

2013-01-01

Barrier islands and coastal beach systems provide nesting habitat for marine and estuarine turtles. Densely settled coastal areas may subsidize nest predators. Our purpose was to inform conservation by providing a greater understanding of habitat-based risk factors for nest predation, for an estuarine turtle. We expected that habitat conditions at predated nests would differ from random locations at two spatial extents. We developed and validated an island-wide model for the distribution of predated Diamondback terrapin nests using locations of 198 predated nests collected during exhaustive searches at Fisherman Island National Wildlife Refuge, USA. We used aerial photographs to identify all areas of possible nesting habitat and searched each and surrounding environments for nests, collecting location and random-point microhabitat data. We built models for the probability of finding a predated nest using an equal number of random points and validated them with a reserve set (N = 67). Five variables in 9 a priori models were used and the best selected model (AIC weight 0.98) reflected positive associations with sand patches near marshes and roadways. Model validation had an average capture rate of predated nests of 84.14 % (26.17–97.38 %, Q1 77.53 %, median 88.07 %, Q3 95.08 %). Microhabitat selection results suggest that nests placed at the edges of sand patches adjacent to upland shrub/forest and marsh systems are vulnerable to predation. Forests and marshes provide cover and alternative resources for predators and roadways provide access; a suggestion is to focus nest protection efforts on the edges of dunes, near dense vegetation and roads.

Assessing wild bees in perennial bioenergy landscapes: effects of bioenergy crop composition, landscape configuration, and bioenergy crop area

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Graham, John B.; Nassauer, Joan I.; Currie, William S.

Wild bee populations are currently under threat, which has led to recent efforts to increase pollinator habitat in North America. Simultaneously, U.S. federal energy policies are beginning to encourage perennial bioenergy cropping (PBC) systems, which have the potential to support native bees. Our objective was to explore the potentially interactive effects of crop composition, total PBC area, and PBC patches in different landscape configurations. Using a spatially-explicit modeling approach, the Lonsdorf model, we simulated the impacts of three perennial bioenergy crops (PBC: willow, switchgrass, and prairie), three scenarios with different total PBC area (11.7%, 23.5% and 28.8% of agricultural landmore » converted to PBC) and two types of landscape configurations (PBC in clustered landscape patterns that represent realistic future configurations or in dispersed neutral landscape models) on a nest abundance index in an Illinois landscape. Our modeling results suggest that crop composition and PBC area are particularly important for bee nest abundance, whereas landscape configuration is associated with bee nest abundance at the local scale but less so at the regional scale. Moreover, strategies to enhance wild bee habitat should therefore emphasize the crop composition and amount of PBC.« less

Assessing wild bees in perennial bioenergy landscapes: effects of bioenergy crop composition, landscape configuration, and bioenergy crop area

DOE PAGES

Graham, John B.; Nassauer, Joan I.; Currie, William S.; ...

2017-03-25

Wild bee populations are currently under threat, which has led to recent efforts to increase pollinator habitat in North America. Simultaneously, U.S. federal energy policies are beginning to encourage perennial bioenergy cropping (PBC) systems, which have the potential to support native bees. Our objective was to explore the potentially interactive effects of crop composition, total PBC area, and PBC patches in different landscape configurations. Using a spatially-explicit modeling approach, the Lonsdorf model, we simulated the impacts of three perennial bioenergy crops (PBC: willow, switchgrass, and prairie), three scenarios with different total PBC area (11.7%, 23.5% and 28.8% of agricultural landmore » converted to PBC) and two types of landscape configurations (PBC in clustered landscape patterns that represent realistic future configurations or in dispersed neutral landscape models) on a nest abundance index in an Illinois landscape. Our modeling results suggest that crop composition and PBC area are particularly important for bee nest abundance, whereas landscape configuration is associated with bee nest abundance at the local scale but less so at the regional scale. Moreover, strategies to enhance wild bee habitat should therefore emphasize the crop composition and amount of PBC.« less

Continental hydrosystem modelling: the concept of nested stream-aquifer interfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flipo, N.; Mouhri, A.; Labarthe, B.; Biancamaria, S.; Rivière, A.; Weill, P.

2014-08-01

Coupled hydrological-hydrogeological models, emphasising the importance of the stream-aquifer interface, are more and more used in hydrological sciences for pluri-disciplinary studies aiming at investigating environmental issues. Based on an extensive literature review, stream-aquifer interfaces are described at five different scales: local [10 cm-~10 m], intermediate [~10 m-~1 km], watershed [10 km2-~1000 km2], regional [10 000 km2-~1 M km2] and continental scales [>10 M km2]. This led us to develop the concept of nested stream-aquifer interfaces, which extends the well-known vision of nested groundwater pathways towards the surface, where the mixing of low frequency processes and high frequency processes coupled with the complexity of geomorphological features and heterogeneities creates hydrological spiralling. This conceptual framework allows the identification of a hierarchical order of the multi-scale control factors of stream-aquifer hydrological exchanges, from the larger scale to the finer scale. The hyporheic corridor, which couples the river to its 3-D hyporheic zone, is then identified as the key component for scaling hydrological processes occurring at the interface. The identification of the hyporheic corridor as the support of the hydrological processes scaling is an important step for the development of regional studies, which is one of the main concerns for water practitioners and resources managers. In a second part, the modelling of the stream-aquifer interface at various scales is investigated with the help of the conductance model. Although the usage of the temperature as a tracer of the flow is a robust method for the assessment of stream-aquifer exchanges at the local scale, there is a crucial need to develop innovative methodologies for assessing stream-aquifer exchanges at the regional scale. After formulating the conductance model at the regional and intermediate scales, we address this challenging issue with the development of an iterative modelling methodology, which ensures the consistency of stream-aquifer exchanges between the intermediate and regional scales. Finally, practical recommendations are provided for the study of the interface using the innovative methodology MIM (Measurements-Interpolation-Modelling), which is graphically developed, scaling in space the three pools of methods needed to fully understand stream-aquifer interfaces at various scales. In the MIM space, stream-aquifer interfaces that can be studied by a given approach are localised. The efficiency of the method is demonstrated with two examples. The first one proposes an upscaling framework, structured around river reaches of ~10-100 m, from the local to the watershed scale. The second example highlights the usefulness of space borne data to improve the assessment of stream-aquifer exchanges at the regional and continental scales. We conclude that further developments in modelling and field measurements have to be undertaken at the regional scale to enable a proper modelling of stream-aquifer exchanges from the local to the continental scale.

Avian nest success in midwestern forests fragmented by agriculture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knutson, M.G.; Friberg, M.A.; Niemi, G.J.; Newton, W.E.

2004-01-01

Knutson et al. (2004) report the results of an avian nest success study conducted to investigate how forest-bird nest success varied by nest location and type as well as by landscape context from 1996 to 1998 in an agricultural region of southwestern Minnesota, and southwestern Wisconsin, and northeastern Iowa. The authors found an overall Mayfield adjusted nest success of 48%, 82% for cavity-nesting species, and 42% for cup-nesting species. Common species varied from 23% for American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) to 43% for the Eastern Wood-Pewee (Contopus virens). Nest success was lowest for open-cup nesters, species that reject Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) eggs, species that next near forest edges, and Neotropical migrants. These tendencies were consistent across the years of the study. Assessments of nest success considering surrounding landscape metrics indicated that forest area may not be a strong indicator of nest success in landscapes where all the available forests are fragmented.

Nest box exploration may stimulate breeding physiology and alter mRNA expression in the medial preoptic area of female European starlings.

PubMed

Spool, Jeremy A; Jay, Melannie D; Riters, Lauren V

2018-04-25

Environmental resources are proposed to fine-tune the timing of breeding, yet how they may do so remains unclear. In female European starlings ( Sturnus vulgaris ), nest cavities are limited resources that are necessary for breeding. Females that explore nest cavities, compared to those that do not, readily perform sexually-motivated behaviors. We assigned female starlings to aviaries with 1) no nest boxes, 2) nest boxes, or 3) nest boxes, plants, flowing water, insects and berries to test the hypothesis that environmental resources alter neural systems to stimulate mating behavior. Compared to other females, females that were housed with and explored nest boxes had higher estradiol, higher preproenkephalin (PENK) mRNA, and lower levels of D1 and D2 dopamine receptor mRNA in the medial preoptic area (mPOA), a region in which opioids and dopamine modify female sexual behaviors and sexual motivation. Additionally, in the mPOA, PENK and tyrosine hydroxylase mRNA positively predicted, whereas estrogen receptor beta mRNA negatively predicted nest box exploration. In the ventromedial hypothalamus, a region in which estradiol acts to stimulate sexual behavior, estrogen receptor alpha mRNA was highest in females that had access to but did not explore nest cavities. It is likely that seasonal increases in estradiol modify mRNA in the mPOA to facilitate nest cavity exploration. It is also possible that nest cavity exploration further alters gene expression in the mPOA, functioning to coordinate mating with resource availability. Thus nest cavity exploration may be a form of self-stimulation that alters neural systems to fine-tune sexual behavior. © 2018. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Estimating the Wind Resource in Uttarakhand: Comparison of Dynamic Downscaling with Doppler Lidar Wind Measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lundquist, J. K.; Pukayastha, A.; Martin, C.

Previous estimates of the wind resources in Uttarakhand, India, suggest minimal wind resources in this region. To explore whether or not the complex terrain in fact provides localized regions of wind resource, the authors of this study employed a dynamic down scaling method with the Weather Research and Forecasting model, providing detailed estimates of winds at approximately 1 km resolution in the finest nested simulation.

Presence of Rhodnius ecuadoriensis in sylvatic habitats in the southern highlands (Loja Province) of Ecuador.

PubMed

Grijalva, M J; Villacis, A G

2009-05-01

The main vectors of Chagas disease in Ecuador are Triatoma dimidiata and Rhodnius ecuadoriensis. The latter species occupies domestic and peridomestic habitats, as well as sylvatic ecotopes--particularly associated with Phytelephas aequatorialis palm trees--in the western coastal region of Ecuador. In the southern highlands, however, such palm tree habitats are uncommon, and sylvatic populations of R. ecuadoriensis have not previously been reported to date. This study was carried out in five rural communities in Loja Province in southern Ecuador, where manual triatomine searches were conducted in various sylvatic habitats. A total of 81 squirrel nests (Sciurus stramineus) and > 200 bird nests and other habitats were searched. One hundred three R. ecuadoriensis individuals were found in 11 squirrel nests (infestation index = 13.6%, density = 2 bugs per nest searched, crowding = 9.5 bugs per infested nest, colonization index = 72.7% of infested nests with nymphs). No triatomines were found in bird nests or other sylvatic habitats. The presence of sylvatic R. ecuadoriensis in the southern highlands of Ecuador has important implications for the long-term control of Chagas disease in the region because of the possibility of reinfestation of dwellings after insecticide-based control interventions.

Nest survival modelling using a multi-species approach in forests managed for timber and biofuel feedstock

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loman, Zachary G.; Monroe, Adrian; Riffell, Samuel K.; Miller, Darren A.; Vilella, Francisco; Wheat, Bradley R.; Rush, Scott A.; Martin, James A.

2018-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) intercropping is a novel forest management practice for biomass production intended to generate cellulosic feedstocks within intensively managed loblolly pine‐dominated landscapes. These pine plantations are important for early‐successional bird species, as short rotation times continually maintain early‐successional habitat. We tested the efficacy of using community models compared to individual surrogate species models in understanding influences on nest survival. We analysed nest data to test for differences in habitat use for 14 bird species in plots managed for switchgrass intercropping and controls within loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) plantations in Mississippi, USA.We adapted hierarchical models using hyper‐parameters to incorporate information from both common and rare species to understand community‐level nest survival. This approach incorporates rare species that are often discarded due to low sample sizes, but can inform community‐level demographic parameter estimates. We illustrate use of this approach in generating both species‐level and community‐wide estimates of daily survival rates for songbird nests. We were able to include rare species with low sample size (minimum n = 5) to inform a hyper‐prior, allowing us to estimate effects of covariates on daily survival at the community level, then compare this with a single‐species approach using surrogate species. Using single‐species models, we were unable to generate estimates below a sample size of 21 nests per species.Community model species‐level survival and parameter estimates were similar to those generated by five single‐species models, with improved precision in community model parameters.Covariates of nest placement indicated that switchgrass at the nest site (<4 m) reduced daily nest survival, although intercropping at the forest stand level increased daily nest survival.Synthesis and applications. Community models represent a viable method for estimating community nest survival rates and effects of covariates while incorporating limited data for rarely detected species. Intercropping switchgrass in loblolly pine plantations slightly increased daily nest survival at the research plot scale (0.1 km2), although at a local scale (50 m2) switchgrass negatively influenced nest survival. A likely explanation is intercropping shifted community composition, favouring species with greater disturbance tolerance.

Nest-site selection and hatching success of waterbirds in coastal Virginia: some results of habitat manipulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rounds, R.A.; Erwin, R.M.; Portera, J.H.

2004-01-01

Rising sea levels in the mid-Atlantic region pose a long-term threat to marshes and their avian inhabitants. The Gull-billed Tern (Sterna nilotica), Common Tern (S. hirundo), Black Skimmer (Rynchops niger), and American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus), species of concern in Virginia, nest on low shelly perimeters of salt marsh islands on the Eastern Shore of Virginia. Marsh shellpiles are free of mammalian predators, but subject to frequent floods that reduce reproductive success. In an attempt to examine nest-site selection, enhance habitat, and improve hatching success, small (2 ? 2 m) plots on five island shellpiles were experimentally elevated, and nest-site selection and hatching success were monitored from 1 May to 1 August, 2002. In addition, location, elevation, and nesting performance of all other nests in the colonies were also monitored. No species selected the elevated experimental plots preferentially over adjacent control plots at any of the sites. When all nests were considered, Common Tern nests were located significantly lower than were random point elevations at two sites, as they tended to concentrate on low-lying wrack. At two other sites, however, Common Tern nests were significantly higher than were random points. Gull-billed Terns and American Oystercatchers showed a weak preference for higher elevations on bare shell at most sites. Hatching success was not improved on elevated plots, despite the protection they provided from flooding. Because of a 7 June flood, when 47% of all nests flooded, hatching success for all species was low. Nest elevation had the strongest impact on a nest's probability of hatching, followed by nest-initiation date. Predation rates were high at small colonies, and Ruddy Turnstones (Arenaria interpres) depredated 90% of early Gull-billed Tern nests at one shellpile. The importance of nest elevation and flooding on hatching success demonstrates the potential for management of certain waterbird nesting sites. Facing threats from predators on barrier islands and rising sea levels especially in the mid-Atlantic region, several species of nesting waterbirds may benefit dramatically with modest manipulation of even small habitat patches on isolated marsh islands.

Landscape and regional context differentially affect nest parasitism and nest predation for Wood Thrush in central Virginia, USA

EPA Science Inventory

Many empirical studies have shown that forest-breeding songbirds, and neotropical migrants in particular, are found in lower abundance in small patches of forest in the Eastern United States compared to similar, but larger patches in the same region. A common hypothesis for the ...

Nested high-resolution modeling of the impact of urbanization on regional climate in three vast urban agglomerations in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jun; Feng, Jinming; Yan, Zhongwei; Hu, Yonghong; Jia, Gensuo

2012-11-01

In this paper, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, coupled to the Urban Canopy Model, is employed to simulate the impact of urbanization on the regional climate over three vast city agglomerations in China. Based on high-resolution land use and land cover data, two scenarios are designed to represent the nonurban and current urban land use distributions. By comparing the results of two nested, high-resolution numerical experiments, the spatial and temporal changes on surface air temperature, heat stress index, surface energy budget, and precipitation due to urbanization are analyzed and quantified. Urban expansion increases the surface air temperature in urban areas by about 1°C, and this climatic forcing of urbanization on temperature is more pronounced in summer and nighttime than other seasons and daytime. The heat stress intensity, which reflects the combined effects of temperature and humidity, is enhanced by about 0.5 units in urban areas. The regional incoming solar radiation increases after urban expansion, which may be caused by the reduction of cloud fraction. The increased temperature and roughness of the urban surface lead to enhanced convergence. Meanwhile, the planetary boundary layer is deepened, and water vapor is mixed more evenly in the lower atmosphere. The deficit of water vapor leads to less convective available potential energy and more convective inhibition energy. Finally, these combined effects may reduce the rainfall amount over urban areas, mainly in summer, and change the regional precipitation pattern to a certain extent.

Nested High Resolution Modeling of the Impact of Urbanization on Regional Climate in Three Vast Urban Agglomerations in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jun; Feng, Jinming; Yan, Zhongwei; Hu, Yonghong; Jia, Gensuo

2013-04-01

In this paper, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled to the Urban Canopy Model (UCM) is employed to simulate the impact of urbanization on the regional climate over three vast city agglomerations in China. Based on high resolution land use and land cover data, two scenarios are designed to represent the non-urban and current urban land use distributions. By comparing the results of two nested, high resolution numerical experiments, the spatial and temporal changes on surface air temperature, heat stress index, surface energy budget and precipitation due to urbanization are analyzed and quantified. Urban expansion increases the surface air temperature in urban areas by about 1? and this climatic forcing of urbanization on temperature is more pronounced in summer and nighttime than other seasons and daytime. The heat stress intensity, which reflects the combined effects of temperature and humidity, is enhanced by about 0.5 units in urban areas. The regional incoming solar radiation increases after urban expansion, which may be caused by the reduction of cloud fraction. The increased temperature and roughness of the urban surface lead to enhanced convergence. Meanwhile, the planetary boundary layer is deepened and water vapor is mixed more evenly in the lower atmosphere. The deficit of water vapor leads to less convective available potential energy and more convective inhibition energy. Finally, these combined effects may reduce the rainfall amount over urban area mainly in summer and change the regional precipitation pattern to a certain extent.

Marsh nesting by mallards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krapu, G.L.; Talent, L.G.; Dwyer, T.J.

1979-01-01

Nest-site selection by mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) hens was studied on a 52-km2, privately owned area in the Missouri Coteau of south-central North Dakota during 1974-77. Sixty-six percent of 53 nests initiated by radio-marked and unmarked hens were in wetlands in dense stands of emergent vegetation and usually within 50 m of the wetland edge. These findings and other sources of information suggest that significant numbers of mallards breeding in the Prairie Pothole Region nest in marsh habitat. Potential factors contributing to mallard use of marsh habitat for nesting purposes are discussed. Management considerations associated with marsh nesting by mallards are described and research needs are identified.

Development and Utilization of Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS). Delicacy, Imprecision, and Uncertainty of Oceanic Simulations: An Investigation with the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS). Submesoscale Flows and Mixing in the Ocean Surface Layer Using the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS). Eddy Effects in General Circulation, Spanning Mean Currents, Mesoscale Eddies, and Topographic Generation, including Submesoscale Nests

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

unbalanced motions is likely to occur. Due to an rapidly expanding set of investigation on oceanic flows at submesoscales, it is increasingly clear...Uchiyama, E. M. Lane, J. M. Restrepo, & J. C. McWilliams, 2011: A vortex force analysis of the interaction of rip currents and gravity waves. J. Geophys...particular topographic features, the torque is pervasively positive (cyclonic) along the Stream, in opposition to the anticyclonic wind curl in the

The Impact of Ignoring the Level of Nesting Structure in Nonparametric Multilevel Latent Class Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Park, Jungkyu; Yu, Hsiu-Ting

2016-01-01

The multilevel latent class model (MLCM) is a multilevel extension of a latent class model (LCM) that is used to analyze nested structure data structure. The nonparametric version of an MLCM assumes a discrete latent variable at a higher-level nesting structure to account for the dependency among observations nested within a higher-level unit. In…

Regional Forest Fragmentation and the Nesting Success of Migratory Birds

Treesearch

Scott K. Robinson; Frank R. Thompson III; Therese M. Donovan; Donald R. Whitehead; John Faaborg

1995-01-01

Forest fragmentation, the disruption in the continuity of forest habitat, is hypothesized to be a major cause of population decline for, some species of forest birds because fragmentation reduces nesting (reproductive) success. Nest predation and parasitism by cowbirds increased with forest fragmentation in nine midwestern (United States)landscapes that varied from 6...

Nesting habitat of Mexican spotted owls in the Sacramento Mountains

Treesearch

Joseph L. Ganey; Darrell L. Apprill; Todd A. Rawlinson; Sean C. Kyle; Ryan S. Jonnes; James P. Ward

2013-01-01

Understanding the habitat relationships of rare species is critical to conserving populations and habitats of those species. Nesting habitat is suspected to limit distribution of the threatened Mexican spotted owl (Strix occidentalis lucida), and may vary among geographic regions. We studied selection of nesting habitat by Mexican spotted owls within their home ranges...

Nest success of snowy plovers (Charadrius nivosus) in the Southern high plains of Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saalfeld, S.T.; Conway, Warren C.; Haukos, D.A.; Johnson, W.P.

2011-01-01

Snowy Plovers (Charadrius nivosus) nesting on edges of saline lakes within the Southern High Plains (SHP) of Texas are threatened by habitat degradation due to reduced artesian spring flow, making many saline lakes unsuitable for nesting and migrating shorebirds. Factors influencing nest success were evaluated, current nest success estimates in the SHP of Texas were compared to estimates obtained ten years prior, and causes and timing of nest failures determined. Overall, 215 nests were monitored from three saline lakes in 20082009, with nest success estimates from Program MARK ranging from 7-33% ( x??= 22%). The leading causes of nest failures were attributed to predation (40%) and weather (36%). Nest success was negatively influenced by number of plants within 707-cm 2 plot, positively influenced by percent surface water availability, and at one saline lake, negatively influenced by day during the nesting season (i.e., nest success declined later in the nesting season). When compared to estimates ten years prior (19981999), mean nest success has declined by 31%. If nesting Snowy Plovers continue to experience increased predation rates, decreased hydrological integrity, and habitat alterations, populations will continue to decline throughout this region.

GNAQPMS-Hg v1.0, a global nested atmospheric mercury transport model: model description, evaluation and application to trans-boundary transport of Chinese anthropogenic emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, H. S.; Wang, Z. F.; Li, J.; Tang, X.; Ge, B. Z.; Wu, X. L.; Wild, O.; Carmichael, G. R.

2015-09-01

Atmospheric mercury (Hg) is a toxic pollutant and can be transported over the whole globe due to its long lifetime in the atmosphere. For the purpose of assessing Hg hemispheric transport and better characterizing regional Hg pollution, a global nested atmospheric Hg transport model (GNAQPMS-Hg - Global Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System for Hg) has been developed. In GNAQPMS-Hg, the gas- and aqueous-phase Hg chemistry representing the transformation among three forms of Hg: elemental mercury (Hg(0)), divalent mercury (Hg(II)), and primary particulate mercury (Hg(P)) are calculated. A detailed description of the model, including mercury emissions, gas- and aqueous-phase chemistry, and dry and wet deposition is given in this study. Worldwide observations including extensive data in China have been collected for model evaluation. Comparison results show that the model reasonably simulates the global mercury budget and the spatiotemporal variation of surface mercury concentrations and deposition. Overall, model predictions of annual total gaseous mercury (TGM) and wet deposition agree with observations within a factor of 2, and within a factor of 5 for oxidized mercury and dry deposition. The model performs significantly better in North America and Europe than in East Asia. This can probably be attributed to the large uncertainties in emission inventories, coarse model resolution and to the inconsistency between the simulation and observation periods in East Asia. Compared to the global simulation, the nested simulation shows improved skill at capturing the high spatial variability of surface Hg concentrations and deposition over East Asia. In particular, the root mean square error (RMSE) of simulated Hg wet deposition over East Asia is reduced by 24 % in the nested simulation. Model sensitivity studies indicate that Chinese primary anthropogenic emissions account for 30 and 62 % of surface mercury concentrations and deposition over China, respectively. Along the rim of the western Pacific, the contributions from Chinese sources are 11 and 15.2 % over the Korean Peninsula, 10.4 and 8.2 % over Southeast Asia, and 5.7 and 5.9 % over Japan. But for North America, Europe and western Asia, the contributions from China are all below 5 %.

Potential for added value in precipitation simulated by high-resolution nested Regional Climate Models and observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

di Luca, Alejandro; de Elía, Ramón; Laprise, René

2012-03-01

Regional Climate Models (RCMs) constitute the most often used method to perform affordable high-resolution regional climate simulations. The key issue in the evaluation of nested regional models is to determine whether RCM simulations improve the representation of climatic statistics compared to the driving data, that is, whether RCMs add value. In this study we examine a necessary condition that some climate statistics derived from the precipitation field must satisfy in order that the RCM technique can generate some added value: we focus on whether the climate statistics of interest contain some fine spatial-scale variability that would be absent on a coarser grid. The presence and magnitude of fine-scale precipitation variance required to adequately describe a given climate statistics will then be used to quantify the potential added value (PAV) of RCMs. Our results show that the PAV of RCMs is much higher for short temporal scales (e.g., 3-hourly data) than for long temporal scales (16-day average data) due to the filtering resulting from the time-averaging process. PAV is higher in warm season compared to cold season due to the higher proportion of precipitation falling from small-scale weather systems in the warm season. In regions of complex topography, the orographic forcing induces an extra component of PAV, no matter the season or the temporal scale considered. The PAV is also estimated using high-resolution datasets based on observations allowing the evaluation of the sensitivity of changing resolution in the real climate system. The results show that RCMs tend to reproduce relatively well the PAV compared to observations although showing an overestimation of the PAV in warm season and mountainous regions.

[Pollen analysis of the post-emergence residue of Centris tarsata Smith (Hymenoptera: Apidae, Centridini) nests].

PubMed

Dórea, Marcos da C; Dos Santos, Francisco de A R; Lima, Luciene C de L E; Figueroa, Luís E R

2009-01-01

A new treatment protocol was developed to analyze pollen residues found in nests of Centris tarsata Smith harvested from nest-traps. The study area was located in the Canudos Biological Station in the municipality of Canudos (09 masculine56'34'S; 38 masculine59'17'W), in the northeastern micro-region of Bahia State, Brazil. The local vegetation is an open caatinga (deciduous dryland vegetation), the regional climate is semi-arid, the average annual temperature is 24.1 masculineC, and the annual regional rainfall rate is 454 mm. Ten nests of C. tarsata were collected in trap-nests during the first semester of 2004. Pollen analysis from the nests required the development of a new methodology that combined techniques of palynological sediment analysis with the more common pollinic analysis by acetolysis. Microscopic analyses employed optical microscopy techniques. The pollinic spectrum of the samples from C. tarsata indicated the presence of 17 pollen types from seven plant families, which were present in assemblage of five to eleven pollen types, pointed to the plants used by bees to feed on their offspring. The most represented plant families were Leguminosae (49.3%) and Solanaceae (43.2%). The most frequent pollen types in the samples were from Solanum paniculatum (43.8%) and Senna rizzini (32.1%). The protocol developed provides a new tool for diet assessment of Centris and other groups of solitary bees.

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.

2007-01-01

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in assessing the success of different model configurations in predicting warm season convection over East-Central Florida. The Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software allows users to choose among two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Besides model core and initialization options, the WRF model can be run with one- or two-way nesting. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, creates challenges for local forecasters, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. This project assessed three different model intializations available to determine which configuration best predicts warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. The project also examined the use of one- and two-way nesting in predicting warm season convection.

Lithologic influences on groundwater recharge through incised glacial till from profile to regional scales: Evidence from glaciated Eastern Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gates, John B.; Steele, Gregory V.; Nasta, Paolo; Szilagyi, Jozsef

2014-01-01

Variability in sediment hydraulic properties associated with landscape depositional and erosional features can influence groundwater recharge processes by affecting soil-water storage and transmission. This study considers recharge to aquifers underlying river-incised glaciated terrain where the distribution of clay-rich till is largely intact in upland locations but has been removed by alluvial erosion in stream valleys. In a stream-dissected glacial region in eastern Nebraska (Great Plains region of the United States), recharge estimates were developed for nested profile, aquifer, and regional scales using unsaturated zone profile measurements (matric potentials, Cl- and 3H), groundwater tracers (CFC-12 and SF6), and a remote sensing-assisted water balance model. Results show a consistent influence of till lithology on recharge rates across nested spatial scales despite substantial uncertainty in all recharge estimation methods, suggesting that minimal diffuse recharge occurs through upland glacial till lithology whereas diffuse recharge occurs in river valleys where till is locally absent. Diffuse recharge is estimated to account for a maximum of 61% of total recharge based on comparison of diffuse recharge estimated from the unsaturated zone (0-43 mm yr-1) and total recharge estimated from groundwater tracers (median 58 mm yr-1) and water balance modeling (median 56 mm yr-1). The results underscore the importance of lithologic controls on the distributions of both recharge rates and mechanisms.

Modelling habitat associations with fingernail clam (Family: Sphaeriidae) counts at multiple spatial scales using hierarchical count models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, B.R.; Haro, R.J.; Rogala, J.T.; Sauer, J.S.

2005-01-01

1. Macroinvertebrate count data often exhibit nested or hierarchical structure. Examples include multiple measurements along each of a set of streams, and multiple synoptic measurements from each of a set of ponds. With data exhibiting hierarchical structure, outcomes at both sampling (e.g. Within stream) and aggregated (e.g. Stream) scales are often of interest. Unfortunately, methods for modelling hierarchical count data have received little attention in the ecological literature. 2. We demonstrate the use of hierarchical count models using fingernail clam (Family: Sphaeriidae) count data and habitat predictors derived from sampling and aggregated spatial scales. The sampling scale corresponded to that of a standard Ponar grab (0.052 m(2)) and the aggregated scale to impounded and backwater regions within 38-197 km reaches of the Upper Mississippi River. Impounded and backwater regions were resampled annually for 10 years. Consequently, measurements on clams were nested within years. Counts were treated as negative binomial random variates, and means from each resampling event as random departures from the impounded and backwater region grand means. 3. Clam models were improved by the addition of covariates that varied at both the sampling and regional scales. Substrate composition varied at the sampling scale and was associated with model improvements, and reductions (for a given mean) in variance at the sampling scale. Inorganic suspended solids (ISS) levels, measured in the summer preceding sampling, also yielded model improvements and were associated with reductions in variances at the regional rather than sampling scales. ISS levels were negatively associated with mean clam counts. 4. Hierarchical models allow hierarchically structured data to be modelled without ignoring information specific to levels of the hierarchy. In addition, information at each hierarchical level may be modelled as functions of covariates that themselves vary by and within levels. As a result, hierarchical models provide researchers and resource managers with a method for modelling hierarchical data that explicitly recognises both the sampling design and the information contained in the corresponding data.

Numerical simulation and prediction of coastal ocean circulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, P.

1992-01-01

Numerical simulation and prediction of coastal ocean circulation have been conducted in three cases. 1. A process-oriented modeling study is conducted to study the interaction of a western boundary current (WBC) with coastal water, and its responses to upstream topographic irregularities. It is hypothesized that the interaction of propagating WBC frontal waves and topographic Rossby waves are responsible for upstream variability. 2. A simulation of meanders and eddies in the Norwegian Coastal Current (NCC) for February and March of 1988 is conducted with a newly developed nested dynamic interactive model. The model employs a coarse-grid, large domain to account formore » non-local forcing and a fine-grid nested domain to resolve meanders and eddies. The model is forced by wind stresses, heat fluxes and atmospheric pressure corresponding Feb/March of 1988, and accounts for river/fjord discharges, open ocean inflow and outflow, and M[sub 2] tides. The simulation reproduced fairly well the observed circulation, tides, and salinity features in the North Sea, Norwegian Trench and NCC region in the large domain and fairly realistic meanders and eddies in the NCC in the nested region. 3. A methodology for practical coastal ocean hindcast/forecast is developed, taking advantage of the disparate time scales of various forcing and considering wind to be the dominant factor in affecting density fluctuation in the time scale of 1 to 10 days. The density field obtained from a prognostic simulation is analyzed by the empirical orthogonal function method (EOF), and correlated with the wind; these information are then used to drive a circulation model which excludes the density calculation. The method is applied to hindcast the circulation in the New York Bight for spring and summer season of 1988. The hindcast fields compare favorably with the results obtained from the prognostic circulation model.« less

Nest construction by a ground-nesting bird represents a potential trade-off between egg crypticity and thermoregulation.

PubMed

Mayer, Paul M; Smith, Levica M; Ford, Robert G; Watterson, Dustin C; McCutchen, Marshall D; Ryan, Mark R

2009-04-01

Predation selects against conspicuous colors in bird eggs and nests, while thermoregulatory constraints select for nest-building behavior that regulates incubation temperatures. We present results that suggest a trade-off between nest crypticity and thermoregulation of eggs based on selection of nest materials by piping plovers (Charadrius melodus), a ground-nesting bird that constructs simple, pebble-lined nests highly vulnerable to predators and exposed to temperature extremes. Piping plovers selected pebbles that were whiter and appeared closer in color to eggs than randomly available pebbles, suggesting a crypsis function. However, nests that were more contrasting in color to surrounding substrates were at greater risk of predation, suggesting an alternate strategy driving selection of white rocks. Near-infrared reflectance of nest pebbles was higher than randomly available pebbles, indicating a direct physical mechanism for heat control through pebble selection. Artificial nests constructed of randomly available pebbles heated more quickly and conferred heat to model eggs, causing eggs to heat more rapidly than in nests constructed from piping plover nest pebbles. Thermal models and field data indicated that temperatures inside nests may remain up to 2-6 degrees C cooler than surrounding substrates. Thermal models indicated that nests heat especially rapidly if not incubated, suggesting that nest construction behavior may serve to keep eggs cooler during the unattended laying period. Thus, pebble selection suggests a potential trade-off between maximizing heat reflectance to improve egg microclimate and minimizing conspicuous contrast of nests with the surrounding substrate to conceal eggs from predators. Nest construction behavior that employs light-colored, thermally reflective materials may represent an evolutionary response by birds and other egg-laying organisms to egg predation and heat stress.

Arctic foxes, lemmings, and canada goose nest survival at cape Churchill, Manitoba

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reiter, M.E.; Andersen, D.E.

2011-01-01

We examined factors influencing Canada Goose (Branta canadensis interior) annual nest success, including the relative abundance of collared lemmings (Dicrostonyx richardsoni), arctic fox (Alopex lagopus) den occupancy, nest density, and spring phenology using data collected during annual Canada Goose breeding area surveys at Cape Churchill, Manitoba. Nest density and arctic fox den occupancy strongly influenced Canada Goose nest success. High nest density resulted in higher nest success and high den occupancy reduced nest success. Nest success was not influenced by lemming abundance in the current or previous year as predicted by the "bird-lemming" hypothesis. Reducing arctic fox abundance through targeted management increased nest survival of Canada Geese; a result that further emphasizes the importance of arctic fox as nest predators in this system. The spatial distribution of nest predators, at least for dispersed-nesting geese, may be most important for nest survival, regardless of the abundance of small mammals in the local ecosystem. Further understanding of the factors influencing the magnitude and variance in arctic fox abundance in this region, and the spatial scale at which these factors are realized, is necessary to fully explain predator-prey-alternative prey dynamics in this system. ?? 2011 by the Wilson Ornithological Society.

Birds' nesting parameters in four forest types in the Pantanal wetland.

PubMed

Pinho, J B; Marini, M A

2014-11-01

We tested the heterogeneity/productivity hypothesis with respect to the abundance and richness of birds and the vegetation density hypothesis with respect to birds' nest predation rates, and determined the relative importance of forested vegetation formations for the conservation of birds in the Pantanal. We estimated the apparent nesting success, and the abundance and richness of nesting birds' in four forest types, by monitoring nests during two reproductive seasons in four forested physiognomies (two high productivity/heterogeneity evergreen forests = Cambará and Landi; two low productivity/heterogeneity dry forests = Cordilheira and Carvoeiro) in the Pantanal wetland in Poconé, State of Mato Grosso, Brazil. We found 381 nests of 46 species (35 Passeriformes and 11 non-Passeriformes) in the four forest types. Of these, we monitored 220 active nests belonging to 44 species, 101 during the reproductive season of 2001 and 119 in 2002. We supported the productivity/heterogeneity hypothesis since the two evergreen forests had higher nest abundance and one of them (Cambará) had higher nesting species richness than the dry forests. The number of nests found in each habitat differed with most nests monitored in the Cambará forest (82%), followed by Landi (9%), Cordilheira (6%) and Carvoeiro (3%) forests. The total number of nests monitored was significantly higher in evergreen forests than in dry forests. Also, more species nested in evergreen (37 species) than in dry (16 species) forests. A Correspondence Analysis revealed that only Carvoeiros had a different nesting bird community. The overall apparent nesting success of 220 nests was 26.8%. We did not support the vegetation density hypothesis since nest predation rates were similar between evergreen (73.5%) and dry (70%) forests, and were higher in the Landi (85%) than in the other three forests (69.2 to 72.2%). Our data indicate that Cambará forests seem to be a key nesting habitat for many bird species of the Pantanal. If this local pattern also occurs in other regions of the Pantanal, the use and management of Cambará forests might prove to be important for the conservation of forest birds of this biome. However, conflicting results with other taxonomic groups show that conservation measures for these forests and land use policies should be based on a more complete biodiversity evaluation of the region.

Seamless atmospheric modeling across the hydrostatic-nonhydrostatic scales - preliminary results using an unstructured-Voronoi mesh for weather prediction.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skamarock, W. C.

2015-12-01

One of the major problems in atmospheric model applications is the representation of deep convection within the models; explicit simulation of deep convection on fine meshes performs much better than sub-grid parameterized deep convection on coarse meshes. Unfortunately, the high cost of explicit convective simulation has meant it has only been used to down-scale global simulations in weather prediction and regional climate applications, typically using traditional one-way interactive nesting technology. We have been performing real-time weather forecast tests using a global non-hydrostatic atmospheric model (the Model for Prediction Across Scales, MPAS) that employs a variable-resolution unstructured Voronoi horizontal mesh (nominally hexagons) to span hydrostatic to nonhydrostatic scales. The smoothly varying Voronoi mesh eliminates many downscaling problems encountered using traditional one- or two-way grid nesting. Our test weather forecasts cover two periods - the 2015 Spring Forecast Experiment conducted at the NOAA Storm Prediction Center during the month of May in which we used a 50-3 km mesh, and the PECAN field program examining nocturnal convection over the US during the months of June and July in which we used a 15-3 km mesh. An important aspect of this modeling system is that the model physics be scale-aware, particularly the deep convection parameterization. These MPAS simulations employ the Grell-Freitas scale-aware convection scheme. Our test forecasts show that the scheme produces a gradual transition in the deep convection, from the deep unstable convection being handled entirely by the convection scheme on the coarse mesh regions (dx > 15 km), to the deep convection being almost entirely explicit on the 3 km NA region of the meshes. We will present results illustrating the performance of critical aspects of the MPAS model in these tests.

Clutch sizes and nests of tailed frogs from the Olympic Peninsula, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bury, R. Bruce; Loafman, P.; Rofkar, D.; Mike, K.

2001-01-01

In the summers 1995-1998, we sampled 168 streams (1,714 in of randomly selected 1-m bands) to determine distribution and abundance of stream amphibians in Olympic National Park, Washington. We found six nests (two in one stream) of the tailed frog, compared to only two nests with clutch sizes reported earlier for coastal regions. This represents only one nest per 286 in searched and one nest per 34 streams sampled. Tailed frogs occurred only in 94 (60%) of the streams and, for these waters, we found one nest per 171 in searched or one nest per 20 streams sampled. The numbers of eggs for four masses ((x) over bar = 48.3, range 40-55) were low but one single strand in a fifth nest had 96 eggs. One nest with 185 eggs likely represented communal egg deposition. Current evidence indicates a geographic trend with yearly clutches of relatively few eggs in coastal tailed frogs compared to biennial nesting with larger clutches for inland populations in the Rocky Mountains.

Stochastic Generation of Monthly Rainfall Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srikanthan, R.

2009-03-01

Monthly rainfall data is generally needed in the simulation of water resources systems, and in the estimation of water yield from large catchments. Monthly streamflow data generation models are usually applied to generate monthly rainfall data, but this presents problems for most regions, which have significant months of no rainfall. In an earlier study, Srikanthan et al. (J. Hydrol. Eng., ASCE 11(3) (2006) 222-229) recommended the modified method of fragments to disaggregate the annual rainfall data generated by a first-order autoregressive model. The main drawback of this approach is the occurrence of similar patterns when only a short length of historic data is available. Porter and Pink (Hydrol. Water Res. Symp. (1991) 187-191) used synthetic fragments from a Thomas-Fiering monthly model to overcome this drawback. As an alternative, a new two-part monthly model is nested in an annual model to generate monthly rainfall data which preserves both the monthly and annual characteristics. This nested model was applied to generate rainfall data from seven rainfall stations located in eastern and southern parts of Australia, and the results showed that the model performed satisfactorily.

Nesting biology of Lesser Canada Geese, Branta canadensis parvipes, along the Tanana River, Alaska

Treesearch

Craig R. Ely; John M. Pearce; Roger W. Ruess

2008-01-01

Lesser Canada Geese (Brania canadensis parvipes) are widespread throughout interior regions of Alaska and Canada, yet there have been no published studies documenting basic aspects of their nesting biology. We conducted a study to determine reproductive parameters of Lesser Canada Geese nesting along the Tanana River near the city of Fairbanks, in...

Habitat patch size and nesting success of yellow-breasted chats

Treesearch

Dick E. Burhans; Frank R. Thompson III

1999-01-01

We measured vegetation at shrub patches used for nesting by Yellow-breasted Chats (Icteria virens) to evaluate the importance of nesting habitat patch features on nest predation, cowbird parasitism, and nest site selection. Logistic regression models indicated that nests in small patches (average diameter

Factor determining prochard nest predation along a wetland gradient

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albrecht, T.; Horak, D.; Kreisinger, J.; Weidinger, K.; Klvana, P.; Michot, T.C.

2006-01-01

Waterfowl management on breeding grounds focuses on improving nest success, but few studies have compared waterfowl nest success and factors affecting nest survival along a wetland gradient and simultaneously identified nest predators. We monitored nests (n = 195) of common pochards (Aythya ferina) in Trebon Basin Biosphere Reserve, Czech Republic, during 1999-2002. Daily nest survival rates (DSRs, logistic-exposure) declined from island (0.985, 95% confidence interval, 0.978-0.991) to overwater (0.962, 0.950-0.971) and terrestrial (0.844, 0.759-0.904) nests. The most parsimonious model for DSRs included habitat class (DSRs: island > overwater > terrestrial) and nest visibility. Nest survival was improved by reduced nest visibility, increased water depth, and increased distance from the nest to habitat edge in littoral habitats. On islands, nest success increased with advancing date and increased distance to open water. A model of constant nest survival best explained the data for terrestrial nests. There were no observer effects on DSRs in any habitat. In 2003, artificial nests (n = 180; 120 contained a wax-filled egg) were deployed on study plots. The model that best explained variation in DSRs for artificial nests included only 1 variable: habitat class (DSRs: island ??? overwater > terrestrial). Mammalian predation of artificial nests (by foxes [Vulpes vulpes] and martens [Martes spp.]) was more likely in terrestrial habitats than in littoral habitats or on islands. By contrast, corvids and marsh harriers (Circus aeruginosus) prevailed among predators of overwater and island nests. Our data indicate that artificial islands and wide strips of littoral vegetation may represent secure breeding habitats for waterfowl because those habitats allow nests to be placed in areas that are not accessible to, or that are avoided by, mammalian predators. Management actions should be aimed at preserving these habitats. This, along with creation of new artificial islands, could help to enhance breeding productivity of pochards and possibly other waterfowl species inhabiting man-made ponds.

Parallel simulation of tsunami inundation on a large-scale supercomputer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oishi, Y.; Imamura, F.; Sugawara, D.

2013-12-01

An accurate prediction of tsunami inundation is important for disaster mitigation purposes. One approach is to approximate the tsunami wave source through an instant inversion analysis using real-time observation data (e.g., Tsushima et al., 2009) and then use the resulting wave source data in an instant tsunami inundation simulation. However, a bottleneck of this approach is the large computational cost of the non-linear inundation simulation and the computational power of recent massively parallel supercomputers is helpful to enable faster than real-time execution of a tsunami inundation simulation. Parallel computers have become approximately 1000 times faster in 10 years (www.top500.org), and so it is expected that very fast parallel computers will be more and more prevalent in the near future. Therefore, it is important to investigate how to efficiently conduct a tsunami simulation on parallel computers. In this study, we are targeting very fast tsunami inundation simulations on the K computer, currently the fastest Japanese supercomputer, which has a theoretical peak performance of 11.2 PFLOPS. One computing node of the K computer consists of 1 CPU with 8 cores that share memory, and the nodes are connected through a high-performance torus-mesh network. The K computer is designed for distributed-memory parallel computation, so we have developed a parallel tsunami model. Our model is based on TUNAMI-N2 model of Tohoku University, which is based on a leap-frog finite difference method. A grid nesting scheme is employed to apply high-resolution grids only at the coastal regions. To balance the computation load of each CPU in the parallelization, CPUs are first allocated to each nested layer in proportion to the number of grid points of the nested layer. Using CPUs allocated to each layer, 1-D domain decomposition is performed on each layer. In the parallel computation, three types of communication are necessary: (1) communication to adjacent neighbours for the finite difference calculation, (2) communication between adjacent layers for the calculations to connect each layer, and (3) global communication to obtain the time step which satisfies the CFL condition in the whole domain. A preliminary test on the K computer showed the parallel efficiency on 1024 cores was 57% relative to 64 cores. We estimate that the parallel efficiency will be considerably improved by applying a 2-D domain decomposition instead of the present 1-D domain decomposition in future work. The present parallel tsunami model was applied to the 2011 Great Tohoku tsunami. The coarsest resolution layer covers a 758 km × 1155 km region with a 405 m grid spacing. A nesting of five layers was used with the resolution ratio of 1/3 between nested layers. The finest resolution region has 5 m resolution and covers most of the coastal region of Sendai city. To complete 2 hours of simulation time, the serial (non-parallel) computation took approximately 4 days on a workstation. To complete the same simulation on 1024 cores of the K computer, it took 45 minutes which is more than two times faster than real-time. This presentation discusses the updated parallel computational performance and the efficient use of the K computer when considering the characteristics of the tsunami inundation simulation model in relation to the characteristics and capabilities of the K computer.

Seasonal productivity in a population of migratory songbirds: why nest data are not enough

USGS Publications Warehouse

Streby, Henry M.; Andersen, David E.

2011-01-01

Population models for many animals are limited by a lack of information regarding juvenile survival. In particular, studies of songbird reproductive output typically terminate with the success or failure of nests, despite the fact that adults spend the rest of the reproductive season rearing dependent fledglings. Unless fledgling survival does not vary, or varies consistently with nest productivity, conclusions about population dynamics based solely on nest data may be misleading. During 2007 and 2008, we monitored nests and used radio telemetry to monitor fledgling survival for a population of Ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapilla) in a managed-forest landscape in north-central Minnesota, USA. In addition to estimating nest and fledgling survival, we modeled growth for population segments partitioned by proximity to edges of non-nesting cover types (regenerating clearcuts). Nest survival was significantly lower, but fledgling survival was significantly higher, in 2007 than in 2008. Despite higher nest productivity in 2008, seasonal productivity (number of young surviving to independence per breeding female) was higher in 2007. Proximity to clearcut edge did not affect nest productivity. However, fledglings from nests near regenerating sapling-dominated clearcuts (7–20 years since harvest) had higher daily survival (0.992 ± 0.005) than those from nests in interior forest (0.978 ± 0.006), which in turn had higher daily survival than fledglings from nests near shrub-dominated clearcuts (≤6 years since harvest; 0.927 ± 0.030) in 2007, with a similar but statistically non-significant trend in 2008. Our population growth models predicted growth rates that differed by 2–39% (x¯ = 25%) from simpler models in which we replaced our estimates of first-year survival with one-half adult annual survival (an estimate commonly used in songbird population growth models). We conclude that nest productivity is an inadequate measure of songbird seasonal productivity, and that results based exclusively on nest data can yield misleading conclusions about population growth and clearcut edge effects. We suggest that direct estimates of juvenile survival could provide more accurate information for the management and conservation of many animal taxa.

Ducks and passerines nesting in northern mixed-grass prairie treated with fire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, Todd A.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Madden, Elizabeth M.; Berkey, Gordon B.

2011-01-01

Prescribed fire is an important, ecology-driven tool for restoration of grassland systems. However, prescribed fire remains controversial for some grassland managers because of reported reductions in bird use of recently burned grasslands. Few studies have evaluated effects of fire on grassland bird populations in the northern mixed-grass prairie region. Fewer studies yet have examined the influence of fire on nest density or survival. In our review, we found no studies that simultaneously examined effects of fire on duck and passerine nesting. During 1998—2003, we examined effects of prescribed fire on the density of upland-nesting ducks and passerines nesting in north-central North Dakota, USA. Apparent nest densities of gadwall (Anas strepera), mallard (A. platyrhynchos), and all duck species combined, were influenced by fire history of study units, although the degree of influence was not compelling. Fire history was not related to nest densities of blue-winged teal (A. discors), northern shoveler (A. clypeata), or northern pintail (A. acuta); however, apparent nest densities in relation to the number of postfire growing seasons exhibited a strikingly similar pattern among all duck species. When compared to ducks, fire history strongly influenced apparent nest densities of clay-colored sparrow (Spizella pallida), Savannah sparrow (Passerculus sandwichensis), and bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus). For most species examined, apparent nest densities were lowest in recently burned units, increased during the second postfire growing season, and stabilized or, in some cases, decreased thereafter. Prescribed fire is critical for restoring the ecology of northern mixed-grass prairies and our findings indicate that reductions in nest densities are limited mostly to the first growing season after fire. Our results support the premise that upland-nesting ducks and several grassland passerine species are adapted to periodic fires occurring at a frequency similar to that of pre-Euro-American settlement of the region.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shiddiqi, Hasbi Ash, E-mail: h.a.shiddiqi@students.itb.ac.id, E-mail: h.a.shiddiqi@gmail.com; Widiyantoro, Sri; Nugraha, Andri Dian

We have relocated hypocenters of earthquakes occurring in the Molucca collision zone and surrounding region taken from the BMKG catalog using teleseismic double-difference relocation algorithm (teletomoDD). We used P-wave arrival times of local, regional, and teleseismic events recorded at 304 recording stations. Over 7,000 earthquakes were recorded by the BMKG seismographicnetworkin the study region from April, 2009 toJune, 2014. We used a 3D regional-global nested velocity modelresulting fromprevious global tomographystudy. In this study, the3D seismic velocity model was appliedto theIndonesian region, whilethe1D seismicvelocity model (ak135)wasused for regions outside of Indonesia. Our relocation results show a better improvement in travel-time RMSmore » residuals comparedto those of the BMKG catalog.Ourresultsalso show that relocation shifts were dominated intheeast-west direction, whichmaybeinfluenced by theexistingvelocity anomaly related to the reversed V-shaped slabbeneaththestudy region. Our eventrelocation results refine the geometry of slabs beneath the Halmahera and Sangihe arcs.« less

The Nested Regional Climate Model: An Approach Toward Prediction Across Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurrell, J. W.; Holland, G. J.; Large, W. G.

2008-12-01

The reality of global climate change has become accepted and society is rapidly moving to questions of consequences on space and time scales that are relevant to proper planning and development of adaptation strategies. There are a number of urgent challenges for the scientific community related to improved and more detailed predictions of regional climate change on decadal time scales. Two important examples are potential impacts of climate change on North Atlantic hurricane activity and on water resources over the intermountain West. The latter is dominated by complex topography, so that accurate simulations of regional climate variability and change require much finer spatial resolution than is provided with state-of-the-art climate models. Climate models also do not explicitly resolve tropical cyclones, even though these storms have dramatic societal impacts and play an important role in regulating climate. Moreover, the debate over the impact of global warming on tropical cyclones has at times been acrimonious, and the lack of hard evidence has left open opportunities for misinterpretation and justification of pre-existing beliefs. These and similar topics are being assessed at NCAR, in partnership with university colleagues, through the development of a Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM). This is an ambitious effort to combine a state of the science mesoscale weather model (WRF), a high resolution regional ocean modeling system (ROMS), and a climate model (CCSM) to better simulate the complex, multi-scale interactions intrinsic to atmospheric and oceanic fluid motions that are limiting our ability to predict likely future changes in regional weather statistics and climate. The NRCM effort is attracting a large base of earth system scientists together with societal groups as diverse as the Western Governor's Association and the offshore oil industry. All of these groups require climate data on scales of a few kilometers (or less), so that the NRCM program is producing unique data sets of climate change scenarios of immense interest. In addition, all simulations are archived in a form that will be readily accessible to other researchers, thus enabling a wider group to investigate these important issues.

Variables associated with nest survival of Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) among vegetation communities commonly used for nesting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aldinger, Kyle R.; Terhune, Theron M.; Wood, Petra Bohall; Buehler, David A.; Bakermans, Marja H.; Confer,  John L.; Flaspohler, David J.; Larkin, Jeffrey L.; Loegering, John P.; Percy, Katie L.; Roth, Amber M.; Smalling, Curtis G.

2015-01-01

Among shrubland- and young forest-nesting bird species in North America, Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) are one of the most rapidly declining partly because of limited nesting habitat. Creation and management of high quality vegetation communities used for nesting are needed to reduce declines. Thus, we examined whether common characteristics could be managed across much of the Golden-winged Warbler’s breeding range to increase daily survival rate (DSR) of nests. We monitored 388 nests on 62 sites throughout Minnesota, Wisconsin, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and West Virginia. We evaluated competing DSR models in spatial-temporal (dominant vegetation type, population segment, state, and year), intraseasonal (nest stage and time-within-season), and vegetation model suites. The best-supported DSR models among the three model suites suggested potential associations between daily survival rate of nests and state, time-within-season, percent grass and Rubus cover within 1 m of the nest, and distance to later successional forest edge. Overall, grass cover (negative association with DSR above 50%) and Rubus cover (DSR lowest at about 30%) within 1 m of the nest and distance to later successional forest edge (negative association with DSR) may represent common management targets across our states for increasing Golden-winged Warbler DSR, particularly in the Appalachian Mountains population segment. Context-specific adjustments to management strategies, such as in wetlands or areas of overlap with Blue-winged Warblers (Vermivora cyanoptera), may be necessary to increase DSR for Golden-winged Warblers.

Comparative population structure of cavity-nesting sea ducks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearce, John M.; Eadie, John M.; Savard, Jean-Pierre L.; Christensen, Thomas K.; Berdeen, James; Taylor, Eric J.; Boyd, Sean; Einarsson, Árni

2014-01-01

A growing collection of mtDNA genetic information from waterfowl species across North America suggests that larger-bodied cavity-nesting species exhibit greater levels of population differentiation than smaller-bodied congeners. Although little is known about nest-cavity availability for these species, one hypothesis to explain differences in population structure is reduced dispersal tendency of larger-bodied cavity-nesting species due to limited abundance of large cavities. To investigate this hypothesis, we examined population structure of three cavity-nesting waterfowl species distributed across much of North America: Barrow's Goldeneye (Bucephala islandica), Common Goldeneye (B. clangula), and Bufflehead (B. albeola). We compared patterns of population structure using both variation in mtDNA control-region sequences and band-recovery data for the same species and geographic regions. Results were highly congruent between data types, showing structured population patterns for Barrow's and Common Goldeneye but not for Bufflehead. Consistent with our prediction, the smallest cavity-nesting species, the Bufflehead, exhibited the lowest level of population differentiation due to increased dispersal and gene flow. Results provide evidence for discrete Old and New World populations of Common Goldeneye and for differentiation of regional groups of both goldeneye species in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and the eastern coast of North America. Results presented here will aid management objectives that require an understanding of population delineation and migratory connectivity between breeding and wintering areas. Comparative studies such as this one highlight factors that may drive patterns of genetic diversity and population trends.

Modeling Circulation along the Vietnamese Coast Influenced by Monsoon Variability in Meteorology, River Discharge and Interactions with the Vietnamese East Sea

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

input data and making choices on the configuration of the regional VES model. Details on the domain for the nested/ downscaled shelf model with follow...microwave satellite radiometer data (which are unaffected by cloud) blended with high resolution infrared imagery and found this a useful data set for...variational methods for the assimilation of satellite and in situ observations to achieve improved state estimation and subsequent forecast skill in real

Contrasting patterns of nest survival and postfledging survival in ovenbirds and Acadian flycatchers in Missouri forest fragments

Treesearch

Julianna M. A. Jenkins; Frank R. Thompson; John Faaborg

2016-01-01

We can improve our ability to assess population viability and forecast population growth under different scenarios by understanding factors that limit population parameters in each stage of the annual cycle. Postfledging mortality rates may be as variable as nest survival across regions and fragmentation gradients, although factors that negatively impact nest survival...

Demographic consequences of nest box use for Red-footed Falcons Falco vespertinus in Central Asia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bragin, Evgeny A.; Bragin, Alexander E.; Katzner, Todd

2017-01-01

Nest box programs are frequently implemented for the conservation of cavity-nesting birds, but their effectiveness is rarely evaluated in comparison to birds not using nest boxes. In the European Palearctic, Red-footed Falcon Falco vespertinus populations are both of high conservation concern and are strongly associated with nest box programs in heavily managed landscapes. We used a 21-year monitoring dataset collected on 753 nesting attempts by Red-footed Falcons in unmanaged natural or semi-natural habitats to provide basic information on this poorly known species; to evaluate long-term demographic trends; and to evaluate response of demographic parameters of Red-footed Falcons to environmental factors including use of nest boxes. We observed significant differences among years in laying date, offspring loss, and numbers of fledglings produced, but not in egg production. Of these four parameters, offspring loss and, to a lesser extent, number of fledglings exhibited directional trends over time. Variation in laying date and in numbers of eggs were not well explained by any one model, but instead by combinations of models, each with informative terms for nest type. Nevertheless, laying in nest boxes occurred 2.10 ± 0.70 days earlier than in natural nests. In contrast, variation in both offspring loss and numbers of fledglings produced were fairly well explained by a single model including terms for nest type, nest location, and an interaction between the two parameters (65% and 81% model weights respectively), with highest offspring loss in nest boxes on forest edges. Because, for other species, earlier laying dates are associated with more fit individuals, this interaction highlighted a possible ecological trap, whereby birds using nest boxes on forest edges lay eggs earlier but suffer greater offspring loss and produce lower numbers of fledglings than do those in other nesting settings. If nest boxes increase offspring loss for Red-footed Falcons in heavily managed landscapes where populations are at greater risk, or for the many other species of rare or endangered birds supported by nest box programs, these processes could have important demographic and conservation consequences.

Nested ocean models: Work in progress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perkins, A. Louise

1991-01-01

The ongoing work of combining three existing software programs into a nested grid oceanography model is detailed. The HYPER domain decomposition program, the SPEM ocean modeling program, and a quasi-geostrophic model written in England are being combined into a general ocean modeling facility. This facility will be used to test the viability and the capability of two-way nested grids in the North Atlantic.

Nest substrate reflects incubation style in extant archosaurs with implications for dinosaur nesting habits.

PubMed

Tanaka, Kohei; Zelenitsky, Darla K; Therrien, François; Kobayashi, Yoshitsugu

2018-03-15

Dinosaurs thrived and reproduced in various regions worldwide, including the Arctic. In order to understand their nesting in diverse or extreme environments, the relationships between nests, nesting environments, and incubation methods in extant archosaurs were investigated. Statistical analyses reveal that species of extant covered nesters (i.e., crocodylians and megapodes) preferentially select specific sediments/substrates as a function of their nesting style and incubation heat sources. Relationships between dinosaur eggs and the sediments in which they occur reveal that hadrosaurs and some sauropods (i.e., megaloolithid eggs) built organic-rich mound nests that relied on microbial decay for incubation, whereas other sauropods (i.e., faveoloolithid eggs) built sandy in-filled hole nests that relied on solar or potentially geothermal heat for incubation. Paleogeographic distribution of mound nests and sandy in-filled hole nests in dinosaurs reveals these nest types produced sufficient incubation heat to be successful up to mid latitudes (≤47°), 10° higher than covered nesters today. However, only mound nesting and likely brooding could have produced sufficient incubation heat for nesting above the polar circle (>66°). As a result, differences in nesting styles may have placed restrictions on the reproduction of dinosaurs and their dispersal at high latitudes.

Mourning Dove nesting habitat and nest success in Central Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drobney, R.D.; Schulz, J.H.; Sheriff, S.L.; Fuemmeler, W.J.

1998-01-01

Previous Mourning Dove (Zenaida macroura) nesting studies conducted in areas containing a mixture of edge and continuous habitats have focused on edge habitats. Consequently, little is known about the potential contribution of continuous habitats to dove production. In this study we evaluated the relative importance of these two extensive habitat types by monitoring the habitat use and nest success of 59 radio-marked doves during 1990-1991 in central Missouri. Of 83 nests initiated by our marked sample, most (81.9%) were located in edge habitats. Although continuous habitats were selected less as nest sites, the proportion of successful nests did not differ significantly from that in edge habitats. Our data indicate that continuous habitats should not be considered marginal nesting habitat. If the intensity of use and nest success that we observed are representative regionally or nationally, continuous habitats could contribute substantially to annual Mourning Dove production because of the high availability of these habitats throughout much of the Mourning Dove breeding range.

Nest survival of American Coots relative to grazing, burning, and water depths

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Jane E.; Buhl, Deborah A.

2011-01-01

Water and emergent vegetation are key features influencing nest site selection and success for many marsh-nesting waterbirds. Wetland management practices such as grazing, burning, and water-level manipulations directly affect these features and can influence nest survival. We used model selection and before-after-control-impact approaches to evaluate the effects of water depth and four common land-management practices or treatments, i.e., summer grazing, fall grazing, fall burning, and idle (no active treatment) on nest survival of American coots (Fulica americana) nesting at Grays Lake, a large montane wetland in southeast Idaho. The best model included the variables year × treatment, and quadratic functions of date, water depth, and nest age; height of vegetation at the nest did not improve the best model. However, results from the before-after-control-impact analysis indicate that management practices affected nest success via vegetation and involved interactions of hydrology, residual vegetation, and habitat composition. Nest success in idled fields changed little between pre- and post-treatment periods, whereas nest success declined in fields that were grazed or burned, with the most dramatic declines the year following treatments. The importance of water depth may be amplified in this wetland system because of rapid water-level withdrawal during the nesting season. Water and land-use values for area ranchers, management for nesting waterbirds, and long-term wetland function are important considerations in management of water levels and vegetation.

Genetic structure of Florida green turtle rookeries as indicated by mitochondrial DNA control region sequences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shamblin, Brian M.; Bagley, Dean A.; Ehrhart, Llewellyn M.; Desjardin, Nicole A.; Martin, R. Erik; Hart, Kristen M.; Naro-Maciel, Eugenia; Rusenko, Kirt; Stiner, John C.; Sobel, Debra; Johnson, Chris; Wilmers, Thomas; Wright, Laura J.; Nairn, Campbell J.

2014-01-01

Green turtle (Chelonia mydas) nesting has increased dramatically in Florida over the past two decades, ranking the Florida nesting aggregation among the largest in the Greater Caribbean region. Individual beaches that comprise several hundred kilometers of Florida’s east coast and Keys support tens to thousands of nests annually. These beaches encompass natural to highly developed habitats, and the degree of demographic partitioning among rookeries was previously unresolved. We characterized the genetic structure of ten Florida rookeries from Cape Canaveral to the Dry Tortugas through analysis of 817 base pair mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region sequences from 485 nesting turtles. Two common haplotypes, CM-A1.1 and CM-A3.1, accounted for 87 % of samples, and the haplotype frequencies were strongly partitioned by latitude along Florida’s Atlantic coast. Most genetic structure occurred between rookeries on either side of an apparent genetic break in the vicinity of the St. Lucie Inlet that separates Hutchinson Island and Jupiter Island, representing the finest scale at which mtDNA structure has been documented in marine turtle rookeries. Florida and Caribbean scale analyses of population structure support recognition of at least two management units: central eastern Florida and southern Florida. More thorough sampling and deeper sequencing are necessary to better characterize connectivity among Florida green turtle rookeries as well as between the Florida nesting aggregation and others in the Greater Caribbean region.

Estimating raptor nesting success: old and new approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Jessi L.; Steenhof, Karen; Kochert, Michael N.; Bond, Laura

2013-01-01

Studies of nesting success can be valuable in assessing the status of raptor populations, but differing monitoring protocols can present unique challenges when comparing populations of different species across time or geographic areas. We used large datasets from long-term studies of 3 raptor species to compare estimates of apparent nest success (ANS, the ratio of successful to total number of nesting attempts), Mayfield nesting success, and the logistic-exposure model of nest survival. Golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos), prairie falcons (Falco mexicanus), and American kestrels (F. sparverius) differ in their breeding biology and the methods often used to monitor their reproduction. Mayfield and logistic-exposure models generated similar estimates of nesting success with similar levels of precision. Apparent nest success overestimated nesting success and was particularly sensitive to inclusion of nesting attempts discovered late in the nesting season. Thus, the ANS estimator is inappropriate when exact point estimates are required, especially when most raptor pairs cannot be located before or soon after laying eggs. However, ANS may be sufficient to assess long-term trends of species in which nesting attempts are highly detectable.

A genetic test of the natal homing versus social facilitation models for green turtle migration.

PubMed

Meylan, A B; Bowen, B W; Avise, J C

1990-05-11

Female green turtles exhibit strong nest-site fidelity as adults, but whether the nesting beach is the natal site is not known. Under the natal homing hypothesis, females return to their natal beach to nest, whereas under the social facilitation model, virgin females follow experienced breeders to nesting beaches and after a "favorable" nesting experience, fix on that site for future nestings. Differences shown in mitochondrial DNA genotype frequency among green turtle colonies in the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are consistent with natal homing expectations and indicate that social facilitation to nonnatal sites is rare.

Nest mortality of sagebrush songbirds due to a severe hailstorm

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hightower, Jessica N.; Carlisle, Jason D.; Chalfoun, Anna D.

2018-01-01

Demographic assessments of nesting birds typically focus on failures due to nest predation or brood parasitism. Extreme weather events such as hailstorms, however, can also destroy eggs and injure or kill juvenile and adult birds at the nest. We documented the effects of a severe hailstorm on 3 species of sagebrush-associated songbirds: Sage Thrasher (Oreoscoptes montanus), Brewer's Sparrow (Spizella breweri), and Vesper Sparrow (Pooecetes gramineus), nesting at eight 24 ha study plots in central Wyoming, USA. Across all plots, 17% of 128 nests failed due to the hailstorm; however, all failed nests were located at a subset of study plots (n = 3) where the hailstorm was most intense, and 45% of all nests failures on those plots were due to hail. Mortality rates varied by species, nest architecture, and nest placement. Nests with more robust architecture and those sited more deeply under the shrub canopy were more likely to survive the hailstorm, suggesting that natural history traits may modulate mortality risk due to hailstorms. While sporadic in nature, hailstorms may represent a significant source of nest failure to songbirds in certain locations, especially with increasing storm frequency and severity forecasted in some regions with ongoing climate change.

Prediction of convective activity using a system of parasitic-nested numerical models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perkey, D. J.

1976-01-01

A limited area, three dimensional, moist, primitive equation (PE) model is developed to test the sensitivity of quantitative precipitation forecasts to the initial relative humidity distribution. Special emphasis is placed on the squall-line region. To accomplish the desired goal, time dependent lateral boundaries and a general convective parameterization scheme suitable for mid-latitude systems were developed. The sequential plume convective parameterization scheme presented is designed to have the versatility necessary in mid-latitudes and to be applicable for short-range forecasts. The results indicate that the scheme is able to function in the frontally forced squallline region, in the gently rising altostratus region ahead of the approaching low center, and in the over-riding region ahead of the warm front. Three experiments are discussed.

A long slit-like entrance promotes ventilation in the mud nesting social wasp, Polybia spinifex: visualization of nest microclimates using computational fluid dynamics.

PubMed

Hozumi, Satoshi; Inagaki, Terumi

2010-01-01

Polybia spinifex Richards (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) constructs mud nests characterized by a long slit-like entrance. The ventilation and thermal characteristics of the P. spinifex nest were investigated to determine whether the nest microclimate is automatically maintained due to the size of the entrance. In order to examine this hypothesis, a numerical simulation was employed to predict the effects of the entrance length. The calculations were performed with 3D-virtual models that simulated the P. spinifex nest conditions, and the reliability of the simulations was experimentally examined by using gypsum-model nests and a P. spinifex nest. The ventilation effect was determined by blowing air through the nest at 1-3 m/s (airflow conditions); the airspeed was found to be higher in models with a longer entrance. The ventilation rate was also higher in models with longer entrances, suggesting that the P. spinifex nest is automatically ventilated by natural winds. Next, the thermal effect was calculated under condition of direct sunlight. Under a calm condition (airflow, 0 m/s), thermal convection and a small temperature drop were observed in the case of models with a long entrance, whereas the ventilation and thermoregulation effects seemed small. Under airflow conditions, the temperature at the mid combs steeply dropped due to the convective airflow through the entrance at 1-2 m/s, and at 3 m/s, most of the heat was eliminated due to high thermal conductivity of the mud envelope, rather than convection.

Renesting by dusky Canada geese on the Copper River Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fondell, Thomas F.; Grand, James B.; Miller, David A.W.; Anthony, R. Michael

2006-01-01

The population of dusky Canada geese (Branta canadensis occidentalis; hereafter duskies) breeding on the Copper River Delta (CRD), Alaska, USA, has been in long-term decline, largely as a result of reduced productivity. Estimates of renesting rates by duskies may be useful for adjusting estimates of the size of the breeding population derived from aerial surveys and for understanding population dynamics. We used a marked population of dusky females to obtain estimates of renesting propensity and renesting interval on the CRD, 1999–2000. Continuation nests, replacement nests initiated without a break in the laying sequence, resulted only after first nests were destroyed in the laying stage with ≤4 eggs laid. Renesting propensity declined with nest age from 72% in mid-laying to 30% in early incubation. Between first nests and renests, mean interval was 11.9 ± 0.6 days, mean distance was 74.5 m (range 0–214 m), and clutch size declined 0.9 ± 0.4 eggs. We incorporated our renesting estimates and available estimates of other nesting parameters into an individual-based model to predict the proportion of first nests, continuation nests, and renests, and to examine female success on the CRD, 1997–2000. Our model predicted that 19–36% of nests each year were continuation nests and renests. Also, through 15 May (the approx. date of breeding ground surveys), 1.1–1.3 nests were initiated per female. Thus, the number of nests per female would have a significant, though relatively consistent, effect on adjusting the relation between numbers of nests found on ground surveys versus numbers of birds seen during aerial surveys. We also suggest a method that managers could use to predict nests per female using nest success of early nests. Our model predicted that relative to observed estimates of nest success, female success was 32–100% greater, due to replacement nests. Thus, although nest success remains low, production for duskies was higher than previously thought. For dusky Canada geese, managers need to consider both continuation nests and renests in designing surveys and in calculating adjustment factors for the expansion of aerial survey data using nest densities.

Population dynamics of mallards breeding in eastern Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dugger, Bruce D.; Coluccy, John M.; Dugger, Katie M.; Fox, Trevor T.; Kraege, Donald K.; Petrie, Mark J.

2016-01-01

Variation in regional population trends for mallards breeding in the western United States indicates that additional research into factors that influence demographics could contribute to management and understanding the population demographics of mallards across North America. We estimated breeding incidence and adult female, nest, and brood survival in eastern Washington in 2006 and 2007 by monitoring female mallards with radio telemetry and tested how those parameters were influenced by study year (2006 vs. 2007), landscape type (agricultural vs. natural), and age (second year [SY] vs. after second year [ASY]). We also investigated the effects of female body condition and capture date on breeding incidence, and nest initiation date and hatch date on nest and brood survival, respectively. We included population parameters in a stage-based demographic model and conducted a perturbation analysis to identify which vital rates were most influential on population growth rate (λ). Adult female survival was best modeled with a constant weekly survival rate (0.994, SE = 0.003). Breeding incidence differed between years and was higher for birds in better body condition. Nest survival was higher for ASY females (0.276, SE = 0.118) than SY females (0.066, SE = 0.052), and higher on publicly managed lands (0.383, SE = 0.212) than agricultural (0.114, SE = 0.058) landscapes. Brood survival was best modeled with a constant rate for the 7-week monitoring period (0.50, SE = 0.155). The single variable having the greatest influence on λ was non-breeding season survival, but the combination of parameters from the breeding grounds explained a greater percent of the variance in λ. Mallard population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in non-breeding survival, nest success, brood survival, and breeding incidence. Future management decisions should focus on activities that improve these vital rates if managers want to increase the production of mallards in eastern Washington.

Modeling nest survival of cavity-nesting birds in relation to postfire salvage logging

Treesearch

Vicki Saab; Robin E. Russell; Jay Rotella; Jonathan G. Dudley

2011-01-01

Salvage logging practices in recently burned forests often have direct effects on species associated with dead trees, particularly cavity-nesting birds. As such, evaluation of postfire management practices on nest survival rates of cavity nesters is necessary for determining conservation strategies. We monitored 1,797 nests of 6 cavity-nesting bird species: Lewis'...

Monitoring bald eagles using lists of nests: Response to Watts and Duerr

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, John R.; Otto, Mark C.; Kendall, William L.; Zimmerman, Guthrie S.

2011-01-01

The post-delisting monitoring plan for bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) roposed use of a dual-frame sample design, in which sampling of known nest sites in combination with additional area-based sampling is used to estimate total number of nesting bald eagle pairs. Watts and Duerr (2010) used data from repeated observations of bald eagle nests in Virginia, USA to estimate a nest turnover rate and used this rate to simulate decline in number of occupied nests in list nests over time. Results of Watts and Duerr suggest that, given the rates of loss of nests from the list of known nest sites in Virginia, the list information will be of little value to sampling unless lists are constantly updated. Those authors criticize the plan for not placing sufficient emphasis on updating and maintaining lists of bald eagle nests. Watts and Duerr's metric of turnover rate does not distinguish detectability or temporary nonuse of nests from permanent loss of nests and likely overestimates turnover rate. We describe a multi-state capture–recapture model that allows appropriate estimation of rates of loss of nests, and we use the model to estimate rates of loss from a sample of nests from Maine, USA. The post-delisting monitoring plan addresses the need to maintain and update the lists of nests, and we show that dual frame sampling is an effective approach for sampling nesting bald eagle populations.

Predicting Deforestation Patterns in Loreto, Peru from 2000-2010 Using a Nested GLM Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vijay, V.; Jenkins, C.; Finer, M.; Pimm, S.

2013-12-01

Loreto is the largest province in Peru, covering about 370,000 km2. Because of its remote location in the Amazonian rainforest, it is also one of the most sparsely populated. Though a majority of the region remains covered by forest, deforestation is being driven by human encroachment through industrial activities and the spread of colonization and agriculture. The importance of accurate predictive modeling of deforestation has spawned an extensive body of literature on the topic. We present a nested GLM approach based on predictions of deforestation from 2000-2010 and using variables representing the expected drivers of deforestation. Models were constructed using 2000 to 2005 changes and tested against data for 2005 to 2010. The most complex model, which included transportation variables (roads and navigable rivers), spatial contagion processes, population centers and industrial activities, performed better in predicting the 2005 to 2010 changes (75.8% accurate) than did a simpler model using only transportation variables (69.2% accurate). Finally we contrast the GLM approach with a more complex spatially articulated model.

Improving stability of regional numerical ocean models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herzfeld, Mike

2009-02-01

An operational limited-area ocean modelling system was developed to supply forecasts of ocean state out to 3 days. This system is designed to allow non-specialist users to locate the model domain anywhere within the Australasian region with minimum user input. The model is required to produce a stable simulation every time it is invoked. This paper outlines the methodology used to ensure the model remains stable over the wide range of circumstances it might encounter. Central to the model configuration is an alternative approach to implementing open boundary conditions in a one-way nesting environment. Approximately 170 simulations were performed on limited areas in the Australasian region to assess the model stability; of these, 130 ran successfully with a static model parameterisation allowing a statistical estimate of the model’s approach toward instability to be determined. Based on this, when the model was deemed to be approaching instability a strategy of adaptive intervention in the form of constraint on velocity and elevation was invoked to maintain stability.

Northern Pintail

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, Robert G.; Fleskes, Joseph P.; Guyn, Karla L.; Haukos, David A.; Austin, Jane E.; Miller, Michael R.

2014-01-01

This medium-sized dabbling duck of slender, elegant lines and conservative plumage coloration is circumpolar in distribution and abundant in North America, with core nesting habitat in Alaska and the Prairie Pothole Region of southern Canada and the northern Great Plains. Breeders favor shallow wetlands interspersed throughout prairie grasslands or arctic tundra. An early fall migrant, the species arrives on wintering areas beginning in August, after wing molt, often forming large roosting and feeding flocks on open, shallow wetlands and flooded agricultural fields. The birds consume grains, marsh plant seeds, and aquatic invertebrates throughout fall and winter.Northern Pintails are among the earliest nesting ducks in North America, beginning shortly after ice-out in many northern areas. Individuals form new pair bonds each winter but are highly promiscuous during the nesting season, with mated and unmated males often involved in vigorous, acrobatic Pursuit Flights. Annual nest success and productivity vary with water conditions, predation, and weather. Females build nests on the ground, often far from water. Only the female incubates; her mate leaves shortly after incubation begins. Ducklings hatch together in one day, follow the female to water after a day in the nest, and fledge by July or August. Adults and ducklings consume mainly aquatic invertebrates during the breeding season.Predators and farming operations destroy many thousands of Northern Pintail nests annually; farming has also greatly reduced the amount of quality nesting cover available. Winter habitats are threatened by water shortages, agricultural development, contamination, and urbanization. Periods of extended drought in prairie nesting regions have caused dramatic population declines, usually followed by periods of recovery. Over the long term, however, the continental population of Northern Pintails has declined significantly from 6 million birds in the early 1970s to less than 3 million in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Since then, the population appears to have stabilized; in 2013, the estimate was 3.3 million birds, a large number but below conservation goals despite favorable wetland conditions in much of the prairie breeding region. Ongoing conservation measures, however, such as habitat restoration and enhancement of agricultural lands, as well as prudent harvest management, suggest that Northern Pintails should have a secure future in North America.

Female turtles from hot nests: is it duration of incubation or proportion of development at high temperatures that matters?

PubMed

Georges, Arthur

1989-11-01

Mean daily temperature in natural nests of freshwater turtles with temperature-dependent sex determination is known to be a poor predictor of hatchling sex ratios when nest temperatures fluctuate. To account for this, a model was developed on the assumption that females will emerge from eggs when more than half of embryonic development occurs above the threshold temperature for sex determination rather than from eggs that spend more than half their time above the threshold. The model is consistent with previously published data and in particular explains the phenomenon whereby the mean temperature that best distinguishes between male and female nests decreases with increasing variability in nest temperature. The model, if verified by controlled experiments, has important implications for our understanding of temperature-dependent sex determination in natural nests. Both mean nest temperature and "hours spent above the threshold" will be poor predictors of hatchling sex ratios. Studies designed to investigate latitudinal trends and inter-specific differences in the threshold temperature will need to consider latitudinal and inter-specific variation in the magnitude of diel fluctuations in nest temperature, and variation in factors influencing the magnitude of those fluctuations, such as nest depth. Furthermore, any factor that modifies the relationship between developmental rate and temperature can be expected to influence hatchling sex ratios in natural nests, especially when nest temperatures are close to the threshold.

The genetic basis of parental care evolution in monogamous mice

PubMed Central

Bendesky, Andres; Kwon, Young-Mi; Lassance, Jean-Marc; Lewarch, Caitlin L; Yao, Shenqin; Peterson, Brant K; He, Meng Xiao; Dulac, Catherine; Hoekstra, Hopi E

2017-01-01

Summary Parental care is essential for the survival of mammals, yet the mechanisms underlying its evolution remain largely unknown. Here we show that two sister species of mice, Peromyscus polionotus and P. maniculatus, have large and heritable differences in parental behaviour. Using quantitative genetics, we identify 12 genomic regions that affect parental care, eight of which have sex-specific effects, suggesting that parental care can evolve independently in males and females. Furthermore, some regions affect parental care broadly, whereas others affect specific behaviours, such as nest building. Of the genes linked to differences in nest-building behaviour, vasopressin is differentially expressed in the hypothalamus of the two species, with increased levels associated with less nest building. Using pharmacology in Peromyscus and chemogenetics in Mus, we show that vasopressin inhibits nest building but not other parental behaviours. Together, our results indicate that variation in an ancient neuropeptide contributes to interspecific differences in parental care. PMID:28424518

GNAQPMS-Hg v1.0, a global nested atmospheric mercury transport model: model description, evaluation and application to trans-boundary transport of Chinese anthropogenic emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, H. S.; Wang, Z. F.; Li, J.; Tang, X.; Ge, B. Z.; Wu, X. L.; Wild, O.; Carmichael, G. R.

2014-10-01

Atmospheric mercury (Hg) is a toxic pollutant and can be transported over the whole globe due to its long lifetime in the atmosphere. For the purpose of assessing Hg hemispheric transport and better characterizing regional Hg pollution, a global nested atmospheric Hg transport model (GNAQPMS-Hg) has been developed. In GNAQPMS-Hg, the gas and aqueous phase Hg chemistry representing the transformation among three forms of Hg: elemental mercury (Hg(0)), divalent mercury (Hg(II)), and primary particulate mercury (Hg(P)) are calculated. A detailed description of the model, including mercury emissions, gas and aqueous phase chemistry, and dry and wet deposition is given in this study. Worldwide observations including extensive data in China have been collected for model evaluation. Comparison results show that the model reasonably simulates the global mercury budget and the spatial-temporal variation of surface mercury concentrations and deposition. Overall, model predictions of annual total gaseous mercury (TGM) and wet deposition agree with observations within a factor of two, and within a factor of five for oxidized mercury and dry deposition. The model performs significantly better in North America and Europe than in East Asia. This can probably be attributed to the large uncertainties in emission inventories, coarse model resolution and to the inconsistency between the simulation and observation periods in East Asia. Compared to the global simulation, the nested simulation shows improved skill at capturing the high spatial variability of Hg concentrations and deposition over East Asia. In particular, the root mean square error (RMSE) of simulated Hg wet deposition over East Asia is reduced by 24% in the nested simulation. Model sensitivity studies indicate that Chinese primary anthropogenic emissions account for 30 and 62% of surface mercury concentrations and deposition over China, respectively. Along the rim of the western Pacific, the contributions from Chinese sources are 11 and 15.2% over the Korean Peninsula, 10.4 and 8.2% over Southeast Asia, and 5.7 and 5.9% over Japan. But for North America, Europe and West Asia, the contributions from China are all below 5%.

A two-way nested simulation of the oceanic circulation in the Southwestern Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Combes, Vincent; Matano, Ricardo P.

2014-02-01

This article presents the results of a high-resolution (1/12°), two-way nested simulation of the oceanic circulation in the southwestern Atlantic region. A comparison between the model results and extant observations indicates that the nested model has skill in reproducing the best-known aspects of the regional circulation, e.g., the volume transport of the ACC, the latitudinal position of the BMC, the shelf break upwelling of Patagonia, and the Zapiola Anticyclone. Sensitivity experiments indicate that the bottom stress parameterization significantly impacts the mean location of the Brazil/Malvinas Confluence and the transport of the Zapiola Anticyclone. The transport of the Brazil Current strengthens during the austral summer and weakens during the austral winter. These variations are driven by the wind stress curl over the southwestern Atlantic. The variations of the transport of the Malvinas Current are out of phase with those of the Brazil Current. Most of the seasonal variability of this current is concentrated in the offshore portion of the jet, the inshore portion has a weak seasonality that modulates the magnitude of the Patagonian shelf break upwelling. Using passive tracers we show that most of the entrainment of deep waters into the shelf occurs in the southernmost portion of the Patagonian shelf and along the inshore boundary of the Brazil Current. Shelf waters are preferentially detrained near the Brazil/Malvinas Confluence. Consistent with previous studies, our simulation also shows that south of ˜42°S the Malvinas Current is composed of two jets, which merge near 42°S to form a single jet farther north.

WRF nested large-eddy simulations of deep convection during SEAC4RS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heath, Nicholas K.; Fuelberg, Henry E.; Tanelli, Simone; Turk, F. Joseph; Lawson, R. Paul; Woods, Sarah; Freeman, Sean

2017-04-01

Large-eddy simulations (LES) and observations are often combined to increase our understanding and improve the simulation of deep convection. This study evaluates a nested LES method that uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and, specifically, tests whether the nested LES approach is useful for studying deep convection during a real-world case. The method was applied on 2 September 2013, a day of continental convection that occurred during the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) campaign. Mesoscale WRF output (1.35 km grid length) was used to drive a nested LES with 450 m grid spacing, which then drove a 150 m domain. Results reveal that the 450 m nested LES reasonably simulates observed reflectivity distributions and aircraft-observed in-cloud vertical velocities during the study period. However, when examining convective updrafts, reducing the grid spacing to 150 m worsened results. We find that the simulated updrafts in the 150 m run become too diluted by entrainment, thereby generating updrafts that are weaker than observed. Lastly, the 450 m simulation is combined with observations to study the processes forcing strong midlevel cloud/updraft edge downdrafts that were observed on 2 September. Results suggest that these strong downdrafts are forced by evaporative cooling due to mixing and by perturbation pressure forces acting to restore mass continuity around neighboring updrafts. We conclude that the WRF nested LES approach, with further development and evaluation, could potentially provide an effective method for studying deep convection in real-world cases.

The influence of coyotes on an urban Canada goose population in the Chicago metropolitan area

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Justin L.; /Ohio State U.

Canada geese (Branta canadensis) have become common in many urban areas, often creating nuisance problems for human residents. The presence of urban geese has raised concerns about the spread of disease, increased erosion, excessive noise, eutrophication of waterways, and general nuisance problems. Goose populations have grown due to an increase in urbanization resulting in an abundance of high quality food (urban grass) and suitable nesting sites, as well as a decrease in some predators. I monitored nest predation in the Chicago suburbs during the 2004 and 2005 nesting seasons using 3 nest monitoring techniques to identify predators: video cameras, plasticinemore » eggs, and sign from nest using a classification tree analysis. Of 58 nests monitored in 2004 and 286 in 2005, only raccoons (Procyon lotor) and coyotes (Canis latrans) were identified as nest predators. Raccoons were responsible for 22-25% of depredated nests, but were rarely capable of depredating nests that were actively defended by a goose. Coyotes were responsible for 75-78% of all Canada goose nest depredation and were documented killing one adult goose and feeding on several others. The coyote is a top-level predator that had increased in many metropolitan areas in recent years. To determine if coyotes were actively hunting geese or eggs during the nesting season, I analyzed coyote habitat selection between nesting and pre-nesting or post-nesting seasons. Coyote home ranges (95% Minimum Convex Polygon) were calculated for 19 coyotes to examine third order habitat selection related to goose nest abundance. A 100 m buffer (buffer habitat) was created and centered on each waterway edge and contained 90% of all nests. Coyotes showed selection for habitats during all seasons. Buffer habitat was the top ranked habitat in both pre-nesting and nesting seasons, but dropped to third ranked in post-nesting season. Habitat selection across seasons was compared using a repeated measures MANOVA. Habitat selection between pre-nesting and nesting seasons (P=0.72) were similar, while between post-nesting and nesting seasons there was a nearly significant difference (P=0.07). The insignificant change in habitat use across seasons suggests that coyotes did not switch habitat use to take advantage of goose nests. Alternatively, the change in ranking of buffer habitat across seasons suggests that coyotes may have switched habitat use to take advantage of goose nests. The results are not clear as large individual variation between coyotes due to differences in habitat availability, and social status interfere with the results of the analysis. Even though I failed to find strong support for coyotes actively hunting goose nests, they nevertheless were the primary nest predator in the area and may influence Canada goose populations. To determine the potential influence of coyotes on the Canada goose population, I created a Canada goose matrix population model that included variables such as coyote predation on adults and nests as well as coyote influence on nest desertion. Using the base population model I calculated the Canada goose population to be increasing with {lambda} = 1.055. The removal of all coyote influence on the goose population would allow {lambda} to increase to 1.214. Nest predation was the most important factor related to coyotes: the removal of coyote nest predation from the model resulted in a population growth rate {lambda} = 1.157. Modeling results suggest coyotes are serving as a limiting factor for the Canada goose population within the Chicago metropolitan area.« less

Evaluation of Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment Products on South Florida Nested Simulations with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

Ocean Model 7:285-322 Halliwell GR Jr, Weisberg RH, Mayer DA (2003) A synthetic float analysis of upper-limb meridional overturning circulation ...encompasses a variety of coastal regions (the broad Southwest Florida shelf, the narrow Atlantic Keys shelf, the shallow Florida Bay, and Biscayne...products. The results indicate that the successful hindcasting of circulation patterns in a coastal area that is characterized by complex topography and

Disturbance and climate effects on carbon stocks and fluxes across western Oregon USA.

Treesearch

B.E. Law; D. Turner; J. Campbell; O.J. Sun; S. Van Tuyl; W.D. Ritts; W.B. Cohen

2004-01-01

We used a spatially nested hierarchy of field and remote-sensing observations and a process model, Biome-BGC, to produce a carbon budget for the forested region of Oregon, and to determine the relative influence of differences in climate and disturbance among the ecoregions on carbon stocks and fluxes. The simulations suggest that annual net uptake (net ecosystem...

Applying geographic profiling used in the field of criminology for predicting the nest locations of bumble bees.

PubMed

Suzuki-Ohno, Yukari; Inoue, Maki N; Ohno, Kazunori

2010-07-21

We tested whether geographic profiling (GP) can predict multiple nest locations of bumble bees. GP was originally developed in the field of criminology for predicting the area where an offender most likely resides on the basis of the actual crime sites and the predefined probability of crime interaction. The predefined probability of crime interaction in the GP model depends on the distance of a site from an offender's residence. We applied GP for predicting nest locations, assuming that foraging and nest sites were the crime sites and the offenders' residences, respectively. We identified the foraging and nest sites of the invasive species Bombus terrestris in 2004, 2005, and 2006. We fitted GP model coefficients to the field data of the foraging and nest sites, and used GP with the fitting coefficients. GP succeeded in predicting about 10-30% of actual nests. Sensitivity analysis showed that the predictability of the GP model mainly depended on the coefficient value of buffer zone, the distance at the mode of the foraging probability. GP will be able to predict the nest locations of bumble bees in other area by using the fitting coefficient values measured in this study. It will be possible to further improve the predictability of the GP model by considering food site preference and nest density. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional Management Units for Marine Turtles: A Novel Framework for Prioritizing Conservation and Research across Multiple Scales

PubMed Central

Wallace, Bryan P.; DiMatteo, Andrew D.; Hurley, Brendan J.; Finkbeiner, Elena M.; Bolten, Alan B.; Chaloupka, Milani Y.; Hutchinson, Brian J.; Abreu-Grobois, F. Alberto; Amorocho, Diego; Bjorndal, Karen A.; Bourjea, Jerome; Bowen, Brian W.; Dueñas, Raquel Briseño; Casale, Paolo; Choudhury, B. C.; Costa, Alice; Dutton, Peter H.; Fallabrino, Alejandro; Girard, Alexandre; Girondot, Marc; Godfrey, Matthew H.; Hamann, Mark; López-Mendilaharsu, Milagros; Marcovaldi, Maria Angela; Mortimer, Jeanne A.; Musick, John A.; Nel, Ronel; Pilcher, Nicolas J.; Seminoff, Jeffrey A.; Troëng, Sebastian; Witherington, Blair; Mast, Roderic B.

2010-01-01

Background Resolving threats to widely distributed marine megafauna requires definition of the geographic distributions of both the threats as well as the population unit(s) of interest. In turn, because individual threats can operate on varying spatial scales, their impacts can affect different segments of a population of the same species. Therefore, integration of multiple tools and techniques — including site-based monitoring, genetic analyses, mark-recapture studies and telemetry — can facilitate robust definitions of population segments at multiple biological and spatial scales to address different management and research challenges. Methodology/Principal Findings To address these issues for marine turtles, we collated all available studies on marine turtle biogeography, including nesting sites, population abundances and trends, population genetics, and satellite telemetry. We georeferenced this information to generate separate layers for nesting sites, genetic stocks, and core distributions of population segments of all marine turtle species. We then spatially integrated this information from fine- to coarse-spatial scales to develop nested envelope models, or Regional Management Units (RMUs), for marine turtles globally. Conclusions/Significance The RMU framework is a solution to the challenge of how to organize marine turtles into units of protection above the level of nesting populations, but below the level of species, within regional entities that might be on independent evolutionary trajectories. Among many potential applications, RMUs provide a framework for identifying data gaps, assessing high diversity areas for multiple species and genetic stocks, and evaluating conservation status of marine turtles. Furthermore, RMUs allow for identification of geographic barriers to gene flow, and can provide valuable guidance to marine spatial planning initiatives that integrate spatial distributions of protected species and human activities. In addition, the RMU framework — including maps and supporting metadata — will be an iterative, user-driven tool made publicly available in an online application for comments, improvements, download and analysis. PMID:21253007

Dynamical downscaling inter-comparison for high resolution climate reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, J.; Rocha, A.; Castanheira, J. M.; Carvalho, A. C.

2012-04-01

In the scope of the project: "High-resolution Rainfall EroSivity analysis and fORecasTing - RESORT", an evaluation of various methods of dynamic downscaling is presented. The methods evaluated range from the classic method of nesting a regional model results in a global model, in this case the ECMWF reanalysis, to more recently proposed methods, which consist in using Newtonian relaxation methods in order to nudge the results of the regional model to the reanalysis. The method with better results involves using a system of variational data assimilation to incorporate observational data with results from the regional model. The climatology of a simulation of 5 years using this method is tested against observations on mainland Portugal and the ocean in the area of the Portuguese Continental Shelf, which shows that the method developed is suitable for the reconstruction of high resolution climate over continental Portugal.

Nest site attributes and temporal patterns of northern flicker nest loss: effects of predation and competition.

PubMed

Fisher, Ryan J; Wiebe, Karen L

2006-04-01

To date, most studies of nest site selection have failed to take into account more than one source of nest loss (or have combined all sources in one analysis) when examining nest site characteristics, leaving us with an incomplete understanding of the potential trade-offs that individuals may face when selecting a nest site. Our objectives were to determine whether northern flickers (Colaptes auratus) may experience a trade-off in nest site selection in response to mammalian nest predation and nest loss to a cavity nest competitor (European starling, Sturnus vulgaris). We also document within-season temporal patterns of these two sources of nest loss with the hypothesis that flickers may also be constrained in the timing of reproduction under both predatory and competitive influence. Mammalian predators frequently depredated flicker nests that were: lower to the ground, less concealed by vegetation around the cavity entrance and at the base of the nest tree, closer to coniferous forest edges and in forest clumps with a high percentage of conifer content. Proximity to coniferous edges or coniferous trees increased the probability of nest predation, but nests near conifers were less likely to be lost to starlings. Flickers may thus face a trade-off in nest site selection with respect to safety from predators or competitors. Models suggested that peaks of nest predation and nest loss to eviction occurred at the same time, although a competing model suggested that the peak of nest loss to starlings occurred 5 days earlier than the peak of mammalian predation. Differences in peaks of mammalian predation and loss to starlings may constrain any adjustment in clutch initiation date by flickers to avoid one source of nest loss.

Attribution of future US ozone pollution to regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport, and model deficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, H.; Liang, X.-Z.; Lei, H.; Wuebbles, D. J.

2014-10-01

A regional chemical transport model (CTM) is used to quantify the relative contributions of future US ozone pollution from regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport (LRT) of pollutants, and model deficiency. After incorporating dynamic lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from a global CTM, the representation of present-day US ozone pollution is notably improved. This nested system projects substantial surface ozone trends for 2050's: 6-10 ppbv decreases under the "clean" A1B scenario and ~15 ppbv increases under the "dirty" A1Fi scenario. Among the total trends, regional emissions changes dominate, contributing negative 20-50% in A1B and positive 20-40% in A1Fi, while LRT effects through chemical LBCs and climate changes account for respectively 15-50% and 10-30% in both scenarios. The projection uncertainty due to model biases is region dependent, ranging from -10 to 50%. It is shown that model biases of present-day simulations can propagate into future projections systematically but nonlinearly, and the accurate specification of LBCs is essential for US ozone projections.

Optimization of the time series NDVI-rainfall relationship using linear mixed-effects modeling for the anti-desertification area in the Beijing and Tianjin sandstorm source region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jin; Sun, Tao; Fu, Anmin; Xu, Hao; Wang, Xinjie

2018-05-01

Degradation in drylands is a critically important global issue that threatens ecosystem and environmental in many ways. Researchers have tried to use remote sensing data and meteorological data to perform residual trend analysis and identify human-induced vegetation changes. However, complex interactions between vegetation and climate, soil units and topography have not yet been considered. Data used in the study included annual accumulated Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250 m normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 2002 to 2013, accumulated rainfall from September to August, digital elevation model (DEM) and soil units. This paper presents linear mixed-effect (LME) modeling methods for the NDVI-rainfall relationship. We developed linear mixed-effects models that considered the random effects of sample points nested in soil units for nested two-level modeling and single-level modeling of soil units and sample points, respectively. Additionally, three functions, including the exponential function (exp), the power function (power), and the constant plus power function (CPP), were tested to remove heterogeneity, and an additional three correlation structures, including the first-order autoregressive structure [AR(1)], a combination of first-order autoregressive and moving average structures [ARMA(1,1)] and the compound symmetry structure (CS), were used to address the spatiotemporal correlations. It was concluded that the nested two-level model considering both heteroscedasticity with (CPP) and spatiotemporal correlation with [ARMA(1,1)] showed the best performance (AMR = 0.1881, RMSE = 0.2576, adj- R 2 = 0.9593). Variations between soil units and sample points that may have an effect on the NDVI-rainfall relationship should be included in model structures, and linear mixed-effects modeling achieves this in an effective and accurate way.

The use of generalized estimating equations in the analysis of motor vehicle crash data.

PubMed

Hutchings, Caroline B; Knight, Stacey; Reading, James C

2003-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine if it is necessary to use generalized estimating equations (GEEs) in the analysis of seat belt effectiveness in preventing injuries in motor vehicle crashes. The 1992 Utah crash dataset was used, excluding crash participants where seat belt use was not appropriate (n=93,633). The model used in the 1996 Report to Congress [Report to congress on benefits of safety belts and motorcycle helmets, based on data from the Crash Outcome Data Evaluation System (CODES). National Center for Statistics and Analysis, NHTSA, Washington, DC, February 1996] was analyzed for all occupants with logistic regression, one level of nesting (occupants within crashes), and two levels of nesting (occupants within vehicles within crashes) to compare the use of GEEs with logistic regression. When using one level of nesting compared to logistic regression, 13 of 16 variance estimates changed more than 10%, and eight of 16 parameter estimates changed more than 10%. In addition, three of the independent variables changed from significant to insignificant (alpha=0.05). With the use of two levels of nesting, two of 16 variance estimates and three of 16 parameter estimates changed more than 10% from the variance and parameter estimates in one level of nesting. One of the independent variables changed from insignificant to significant (alpha=0.05) in the two levels of nesting model; therefore, only two of the independent variables changed from significant to insignificant when the logistic regression model was compared to the two levels of nesting model. The odds ratio of seat belt effectiveness in preventing injuries was 12% lower when a one-level nested model was used. Based on these results, we stress the need to use a nested model and GEEs when analyzing motor vehicle crash data.

A smoothed residual based goodness-of-fit statistic for nest-survival models

Treesearch

Rodney X. Sturdivant; Jay J. Rotella; Robin E. Russell

2008-01-01

Estimating nest success and identifying important factors related to nest-survival rates is an essential goal for many wildlife researchers interested in understanding avian population dynamics. Advances in statistical methods have led to a number of estimation methods and approaches to modeling this problem. Recently developed models allow researchers to include a...

Weather radar data correlate to hail-induced mortality in grassland birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carver, Amber; Ross, Jeremy D.; Augustine, David J.; Skagen, Susan K.; Dwyer, Angela M.; Tomback, Diana F.; Wunder, Michael B.

2017-01-01

Small-bodied terrestrial animals such as songbirds (Order Passeriformes) are especially vulnerable to hail-induced mortality; yet, hail events are challenging to predict, and they often occur in locations where populations are not being studied. Focusing on nesting grassland songbirds, we demonstrate a novel approach to estimate hail-induced mortality. We quantify the relationship between the probability of nests destroyed by hail and measured Level-III Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD) data, including atmospheric base reflectivity, maximum estimated size of hail and maximum estimated azimuthal wind shear. On 22 June 2014, a hailstorm in northern Colorado destroyed 102 out of 203 known nests within our research site. Lark bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys) nests comprised most of the sample (n = 186). Destroyed nests were more likely to be found in areas of higher storm intensity, and distributions of NEXRAD variables differed between failed and surviving nests. For 133 ground nests where nest-site vegetation was measured, we examined the ameliorative influence of woody vegetation, nest cover and vegetation density by comparing results for 13 different logistic regression models incorporating the independent and additive effects of weather and vegetation variables. The most parsimonious model used only the interactive effect of hail size and wind shear to predict the probability of nest survival, and the data provided no support for any of the models without this predictor. We conclude that vegetation structure may not mitigate mortality from severe hailstorms and that weather radar products can be used remotely to estimate potential for hail mortality of nesting grassland birds. These insights will improve the efficacy of grassland bird population models under predicted climate change scenarios.

Red-shouldered hawk nesting habitat preference in south Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Strobel, Bradley N.; Boal, Clint W.

2010-01-01

We examined nesting habitat preference by red-shouldered hawks Buteo lineatus using conditional logistic regression on characteristics measured at 27 occupied nest sites and 68 unused sites in 2005–2009 in south Texas. We measured vegetation characteristics of individual trees (nest trees and unused trees) and corresponding 0.04-ha plots. We evaluated the importance of tree and plot characteristics to nesting habitat selection by comparing a priori tree-specific and plot-specific models using Akaike's information criterion. Models with only plot variables carried 14% more weight than models with only center tree variables. The model-averaged odds ratios indicated red-shouldered hawks selected to nest in taller trees and in areas with higher average diameter at breast height than randomly available within the forest stand. Relative to randomly selected areas, each 1-m increase in nest tree height and 1-cm increase in the plot average diameter at breast height increased the probability of selection by 85% and 10%, respectively. Our results indicate that red-shouldered hawks select nesting habitat based on vegetation characteristics of individual trees as well as the 0.04-ha area surrounding the tree. Our results indicate forest management practices resulting in tall forest stands with large average diameter at breast height would benefit red-shouldered hawks in south Texas.

Regional Climate Simulations of the Hydrological Cycle in the Iberian Peninsula with a Coupled WRF-HYDRO Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rios-Entenza, A.; Miguez-Macho, G.

2008-12-01

Land-atmosphere water exchanges and heat fluxes play an important role in climate and particularly in controlling precipitation in water-limited regions. One of such regions is the Iberian Peninsula, and in this study we examine the relevance of water recycling in convective precipitation regimes of the Fall and Spring there, when rainfall is critical for agriculture and many other human activities. We conducted simulations with WRF-ARW model at 5 km horizontal resolution, using a 1500 km x 1500 km nested grid that covers the Iberian Peninsula, with a parent domain that uses spectral nudging in order to avoid the distortion of the large-scale circulation caused by the interaction of the modeled flow with the lateral boundaries of the nested grid. For land-surface interactions we coupled WRF with the LEAF-HYDRO land surface model, which includes water table dynamics. We use therefore a tool that simulates the entire water cycle, including the water table, which has been reported to be critical for soil moisture dynamics in semi-arid regions like the Iberian Peninsula. For each one of the events that we selected, we performed two simulations: a control one, where all land-atmosphere feedbacks are taken into account, and the experiment, where infiltration of the precipitated water into the soil was suppressed. In this manner we explore the role of upward latent and sensible heat fluxes and evapotranspiration in precipitation dynamics. Preliminary results suggest that water recycling is a key factor in extending convective precipitation during several days, and that the total new water added in the area as a whole is only a fraction of the total measured rainfall. An estimation of this fraction is very important to better understanding the water budget and for hydrological planning in this water-stressed region.

Factors influencing nesting success of king eiders on northern Alaska's Coastal Plain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bentzen, R.L.; Powell, A.N.; Suydam, R.S.

2008-01-01

King eider (Somateria spectabilis) populations have declined markedly in recent decades for unknown reasons. Nest survival is one component of recruitment, and a female's chance of reproductive success increases with her ability to choose an appropriate nesting strategy. We estimated variation in daily nest survival of king eiders at 2 sites, Teshekpuk and Kuparuk, Alaska, USA, 2002-2005. We evaluated both a priori and exploratory competing models of nest survival that considered importance of nest concealment, seclusion, and incubation constancy as strategies to avoid 2 primary egg predators, avian (Larus spp., Stercorarius spp., and Corvus corax) and fox (Alopex lagopus). We used generalized nonlinear techniques to examine factors affecting nest survival rates and information-theoretic approaches to select among competing models. Estimated nest survival, accounting for a nest visitation effect, varied considerably across sites and years (0.21-0.57); however, given our small sample size, much of this variation maybe attributable to sampling variation (??process = 0.007, 95% CI: 0.003-0.070). Nest survival was higher at Kuparuk than Teshekpuk in all years; however, due to the correlative nature of our data, we cannot determine the underlying causes with any certainty. We found mixed support for the concealed breeding strategy, females derived no benefit from nesting in areas with more willow (Salix spp.; measure of concealment) except that the observer effect diminished as willow cover increased. We suggest these patterns are due to conflicting predation pressures. Nest survival was not higher on islands (measure of seclusion) or with increased incubation constancy but was higher post-fox removal, indicating that predator control on breeding grounds could be a viable management option. Nest survival was negatively affected by our nest visitations, most likely by exposing the nest to avian scavengers. We recommend precautions be taken to limit the effects of nest visits in future studies and to consider them as a possible negative bias in estimated nest survival. Future models of the impacts of development within the breeding grounds of king eider should consider the influence of humans in the vicinity of nests.

[Approach to the Development of Mind and Persona].

PubMed

Sawaguchi, Toshiko

2018-01-01

To access medical specialists by health specialists working in the regional health field, the possibility of utilizing the voice approach for dissociative identity disorder (DID) patients as a health assessment for medical access (HAMA) was investigated. The first step is to investigate whether the plural personae in a single DID patient can be discriminated by voice analysis. Voices of DID patients including these with different personae were extracted from YouTube and were analysed using the software PRAAT with basic frequency, oral factors, chin factors and tongue factors. In addition, RAKUGO story teller voices made artificially and dramatically were analysed in the same manner. Quantitive and qualitative analysis method were carried out and nested logistic regression and a nested generalized linear model was developed. The voice from different personae in one DID patient could be visually and easily distinquished using basic frequency curve, cluster analysis and factor analysis. In the canonical analysis, only Roy's maximum root was <0.01. In the nested generalized linear model, the model using a standard deviation (SD) indicator fit best and some other possibilities are shown here. In DID patients, the short transition time among plural personae could guide to the risky situation such as suicide. So if the voice approach can show the time threshold of changes between the different personae, it would be useful as an Access Assessment in the form of a simple HAMA.

Breeding ecology and nesting habitat associations of five marsh bird species in western New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lor, S.; Malecki, R.A.

2006-01-01

Nesting habitats and nest success of five species of marsh birds were studied during 1997 and 1998 at the Iroquois National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) and the adjacent Oak Orchard and Tonawanda State Wildlife Management Areas (WMA) located in western New York. Nest searches located 18 American Bittern (Botaurus lentiginosus), 117 Least Bittern (Ixobrychus exilis), 189 Pied-billed Grebe (Podilymbus podiceps), 23 Sora (Porzana carolina), and 72 Virginia Rail (Rallus limicola) nests. Average nest densities in 1998, our best nest searching year, ranged from 0.01/ha for Soras (N = 8) to 0.28/ha for Pied-billed Grebes (N = 160). Mayfield nest success estimates for Least Bittern were 80% (N = 16) in 1997 and 46% (N = 37) in 1998. Nest success estimates were 72% (N = 55) for Pied-billed Grebe, 43% (N = 6) for Sora, and 38% (N = 20) for Virginia Rail. Nests of all five species were located in ???70% emergent vegetation with a mean water depth of 24-56 cm and an average vegetation height that ranged from 69-133 cm. Logistic regression models were developed for each species using habitat variables at nest and random site locations. Each model was ranked with Akaike's Information Criterion for small sample size (AICc). In general, our best models indicated that increased emergent vegetation and horizontal cover with shallow water depths improved the odds of encountering marsh bird nests in the wetlands of western New York. We suggest that managing wetlands as a complex, at different stages of succession, would best benefit marsh bird species.

Species associations and habitat influence the range-wide distribution of breeding Canada Geese (Branta canadensis interior) on Western Hudson Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reiter, Matthew E.; Andersen, David E.; Raedeke, Andrew H.; Humburg, Dale D.

2017-01-01

Inter- and intra-specific interactions are potentially important factors influencing the distribution of populations. Aerial survey data, collected during range-wide breeding population surveys for Eastern Prairie Population (EPP) Canada Geese (Branta canadensis interior), 1987–2008, were evaluated to assess factors influencing their nesting distribution. Specifically, associations between nesting Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) and EPP Canada Geese were quantified; and changes in the spatial distribution of EPP Canada Geese were identified. Mixed-effects Poisson regression models of EPP Canada Goose nest counts were evaluated within a cross-validation framework. The total count of EPP Canada Goose nests varied moderately among years between 1987 and 2008 with no long-term trend; however, the total count of nesting Lesser Snow Geese generally increased. Three models containing factors related to previous EPP Canada Goose nest density (representing recruitment), distance to Hudson Bay (representing brood-habitat), nesting habitat type, and Lesser Snow Goose nest density (inter-specific associations) were the most accurate, improving prediction accuracy by 45% when compared to intercept-only models. EPP Canada Goose nest density varied by habitat type, was negatively associated with distance to coastal brood-rearing areas, and suggested density-dependent intra-specific effects on recruitment. However, a non-linear relationship between Lesser Snow and EPP Canada Goose nest density suggests that as nesting Lesser Snow Geese increase, EPP Canada Geese locally decline and subsequently the spatial distribution of EPP Canada Geese on western Hudson Bay has changed.

Differential effects of coyotes and red foxes on duck nest success

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sovada, Marsha A.; Sargeant, A.; Grier, J.W.

1995-01-01

Low recruitment rates prevail among ducks in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America, primarily because of high nest depredation rates. The red fox (Vulpes vulpes) is a major predator of duck eggs, but fox abundance is depressed by coyotes (Canis latrans). We tested the hypothesis that nest success of upland-nesting ducks is higher in areas with coyotes than in areas with red foxes. We conducted the study during 1990-92 in uplands of 36 areas managed for nesting ducks in North Dakota and South Dakota. Overall nest success averaged 32% (95% CI = 25-40) on 17 study areas where coyotes were the principal canid and 17% (CI = 11-25) on 13 study areas where red foxes were the principal canid (P = 0.01). Both canids were common on 6 other areas, where nest success averaged 25% (CI = 13-47). Habitat composition, predator communities with the exception of canids, and species composition of duck nests in coyote and red fox areas were similar overall. Upon examining only nests with greater than or equal to 6 eggs on the last visit prior to hatch or depredation, we determined nests with evidence characteristic of fox predation accounted for 4% of depredated nests in coyote areas and 27% in fox areas (P = 0.001). An expanding coyote population is contributing to higher overall nest success. Management of coyotes may be an effective method for increasing duck nest success.

Nesting biology of Lesser Canada Geese, Branta canadensis parvipes, along the Tanana River, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ely, Craig R.; Pearce, J.M.; Ruess, Roger W.

2008-01-01

Lesser Canada Geese (Branta canadensis parvipes) are widespread throughout interior regions of Alaska and Canada, yet there have been no published studies documenting basic aspects of their nesting biology. We conducted a study to determine reproductive parameters of Lesser Canada Geese nesting along the Tanana River near the city of Fairbanks, in interior Alaska. Fieldwork was conducted in May of 2003, and consisted of locating nests along the riparian corridor between Fairbanks and Northpole, Alaska. Nests were found on gravel islands and shore habitats along the Tanana River, and were most commonly observed among driftwood logs associated with patches of alder (Alnus spp.) and willow (Salix spp.). Peak of nest initiation was 3-8 May, with a range from 27 April to 20 May; renesting was likely. Clutches ranged in size from 2 to 7 eggs and averaged 4.6 eggs. There was a negative correlation between clutch size and date of nest initiation. Egg size (mean mass = 128 g) was similar to other medium-sized Canada Geese. A positive correlation between egg size and clutch size was likely related to female age. Nineteen of 28 nests (68%) were active when visited; nests located on islands with nesting Mew Gulls (Larus canus) were more likely to be active than nests located elsewhere. Evidence at nest sites implicated Bald Eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) and Red Foxes (Vulpes vulpes) as nest predators.

50 CFR 22.26 - Permits for eagle take that is associated with, but not the purpose of, an activity.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... of the Region in which the disturbance would occur—Attention: Migratory Bird Permit Office. You can... the eagle's nest, roost, or foraging perches; and (iii) Whether alternative suitable eagle nesting...

Towards a unified Global Weather-Climate Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, S. J.

2016-12-01

The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been developing a unified regional-global modeling system with variable resolution capabilities that can be used for severe weather predictions and kilometer scale regional climate simulations within a unified global modeling system. The foundation of this flexible modeling system is the nonhydrostatic Finite-Volume Dynamical Core on the Cubed-Sphere (FV3). A unique aspect of FV3 is that it is "vertically Lagrangian" (Lin 2004), essentially reducing the equation sets to two dimensions, and is the single most important reason why FV3 outperforms other non-hydrostatic cores. Owning to its accuracy, adaptability, and computational efficiency, the FV3 has been selected as the "engine" for NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). We have built into the modeling system a stretched grid, a two-way regional-global nested grid, and an optimal combination of the stretched and two-way nests capability, making kilometer-scale regional simulations within a global modeling system feasible. Our main scientific goal is to enable simulations of high impact weather phenomena (such as tornadoes, thunderstorms, category-5 hurricanes) within an IPCC-class climate modeling system previously regarded as impossible. In this presentation I will demonstrate that, with the FV3, it is computationally feasible to simulate not only super-cell thunderstorms, but also the subsequent genesis of tornado-like vortices using a global model that was originally designed for climate simulations. The development and tuning strategy between traditional weather and climate models are fundamentally different due to different metrics. We were able to adapt and use traditional "climate" metrics or standards, such as angular momentum conservation, energy conservation, and flux balance at top of the atmosphere, and gain insight into problems of traditional weather prediction model for medium-range weather prediction, and vice versa. Therefore, the unification in weather and climate models can happen not just at the algorithm or parameterization level, but also in the metric and tuning strategy used for both applications, and ultimately, with benefits to both weather and climate applications.

Climate change impacts on leatherback turtle pelagic habitat in the Southeast Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willis-Norton, Ellen; Hazen, Elliott L.; Fossette, Sabrina; Shillinger, George; Rykaczewski, Ryan R.; Foley, David G.; Dunne, John P.; Bograd, Steven J.

2015-03-01

Eastern Pacific populations of the leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) have declined by over 90% during the past three decades. The decline is primarily attributed to human pressures, including unsustainable egg harvest, development on nesting beaches, and by-catch mortality. In particular, the effects of climate change may impose additional stresses upon already threatened leatherback populations. This study analyzes how the pelagic habitat of Eastern Pacific leatherbacks may be affected by climate change over the next century. This population adheres to a persistent migration pattern; following nesting at Playa Grande, Costa Rica, individuals move rapidly through equatorial currents and into foraging habitat within the oligotrophic South Pacific Gyre. Forty-six nesting females were fitted with satellite tags. Based on the turtle positions, ten environmental variables were sampled along the tracks. Presence/absence habitat models were created to determine the oceanographic characteristics of the preferred turtle habitat. Core pelagic habitat was characterized by relatively low sea surface temperatures and chlorophyll-a. Based on these habitat models, we predicted habitat change using output from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory prototype Earth System Model under the Special Report on Emissions Scenario A2 (business-as-usual). Although the model predicted both habitat losses and gains throughout the region, we estimated that overall the core pelagic habitat of the Eastern Pacific leatherback population will decline by approximately 15% within the next century. This habitat modification might increase pressure on a critically endangered population, possibly forcing distributional shifts, behavioral changes, or even extinction.

Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

2014-08-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improves WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundarymore » conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

Project ATLANTA (ATlanta Land-use ANalysis: Temperature and Air quality): A Study of how the Urban Landscape Affects Meteorology and Air Quality Through Time

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Estes, Maurice G.; Lo, C. P.; Kidder, Stanley Q.; Hafner, Jan; Taha, Haider; Bornstein, Robert D.; Gillies, Robert R.; Gallo, Kevin P.

1998-01-01

It is our intent through this investigation to help facilitate measures that can be Project ATLANTA (ATlanta Land-use ANalysis: applied to mitigate climatological or air quality Temperature and Air-quality) is a NASA Earth degradation, or to design alternate measures to sustain Observing System (EOS) Interdisciplinary Science or improve the overall urban environment in the future. investigation that seeks to observe, measure, model, and analyze how the rapid growth of the Atlanta. The primary objectives for this research effort are: 1) To In the last half of the 20th century, Atlanta, investigate and model the relationship between Atlanta Georgia has risen as the premier commercial, urban growth, land cover change, and the development industrial, and transportation urban area of the of the urban heat island phenomenon through time at southeastern United States. The rapid growth of the nested spatial scales from local to regional; 2) To Atlanta area, particularly within the last 25 years, has investigate and model the relationship between Atlanta made Atlanta one of the fastest growing metropolitan urban growth and land cover change on air quality areas in the United States. The population of the through time at nested spatial scales from local to Atlanta metropolitan area increased 27% between 1970 regional; and 3) To model the overall effects of urban and 1980, and 33% between 1980-1990 (Research development on surface energy budget characteristics Atlanta, Inc., 1993). Concomitant with this high rate of across the Atlanta urban landscape through time at population growth, has been an explosive growth in nested spatial scales from local to regional. Our key retail, industrial, commercial, and transportation goal is to derive a better scientific understanding of how services within the Atlanta region. This has resulted in land cover changes associated with urbanization in the tremendous land cover change dynamics within the Atlanta area, principally in transforming forest lands to metropolitan region, wherein urbanization has urban land covers through time, has, and will, effect consumed vast acreas of land adjacent to the city local and regional climate, surface energy flux, and air proper and has pushed the rural/urban fringe farther quality characteristics. Allied with this goal is the and farther away from the original Atlanta urban core. prospect that the results from this research can be An enormous transition of land from forest and applied by urban planners, environmental managers agriculture to urban land uses has occurred in the and other decision-makers, for determining how Atlanta area in the last 25 years, along with subsequent urbanization has impacted the climate and overall

Model of the best-of-N nest-site selection process in honeybees.

PubMed

Reina, Andreagiovanni; Marshall, James A R; Trianni, Vito; Bose, Thomas

2017-05-01

The ability of a honeybee swarm to select the best nest site plays a fundamental role in determining the future colony's fitness. To date, the nest-site selection process has mostly been modeled and theoretically analyzed for the case of binary decisions. However, when the number of alternative nests is larger than two, the decision-process dynamics qualitatively change. In this work, we extend previous analyses of a value-sensitive decision-making mechanism to a decision process among N nests. First, we present the decision-making dynamics in the symmetric case of N equal-quality nests. Then, we generalize our findings to a best-of-N decision scenario with one superior nest and N-1 inferior nests, previously studied empirically in bees and ants. Whereas previous binary models highlighted the crucial role of inhibitory stop-signaling, the key parameter in our new analysis is the relative time invested by swarm members in individual discovery and in signaling behaviors. Our new analysis reveals conflicting pressures on this ratio in symmetric and best-of-N decisions, which could be solved through a time-dependent signaling strategy. Additionally, our analysis suggests how ecological factors determining the density of suitable nest sites may have led to selective pressures for an optimal stable signaling ratio.

Model of the best-of-N nest-site selection process in honeybees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reina, Andreagiovanni; Marshall, James A. R.; Trianni, Vito; Bose, Thomas

2017-05-01

The ability of a honeybee swarm to select the best nest site plays a fundamental role in determining the future colony's fitness. To date, the nest-site selection process has mostly been modeled and theoretically analyzed for the case of binary decisions. However, when the number of alternative nests is larger than two, the decision-process dynamics qualitatively change. In this work, we extend previous analyses of a value-sensitive decision-making mechanism to a decision process among N nests. First, we present the decision-making dynamics in the symmetric case of N equal-quality nests. Then, we generalize our findings to a best-of-N decision scenario with one superior nest and N -1 inferior nests, previously studied empirically in bees and ants. Whereas previous binary models highlighted the crucial role of inhibitory stop-signaling, the key parameter in our new analysis is the relative time invested by swarm members in individual discovery and in signaling behaviors. Our new analysis reveals conflicting pressures on this ratio in symmetric and best-of-N decisions, which could be solved through a time-dependent signaling strategy. Additionally, our analysis suggests how ecological factors determining the density of suitable nest sites may have led to selective pressures for an optimal stable signaling ratio.

High atmospheric temperatures and ‘ambient incubation’ drive embryonic development and lead to earlier hatching in a passerine bird

PubMed Central

Griffith, Simon C.; Mainwaring, Mark C.; Sorato, Enrico; Beckmann, Christa

2016-01-01

Tropical and subtropical species typically experience relatively high atmospheric temperatures during reproduction, and are subject to climate-related challenges that are largely unexplored, relative to more extensive work conducted in temperate regions. We studied the effects of high atmospheric and nest temperatures during reproduction in the zebra finch. We characterized the temperature within nests in a subtropical population of this species in relation to atmospheric temperature. Temperatures within nests frequently exceeded the level at which embryo’s develop optimally, even in the absence of parental incubation. We experimentally manipulated internal nest temperature to demonstrate that an average difference of 6°C in the nest temperature during the laying period reduced hatching time by an average of 3% of the total incubation time, owing to ‘ambient incubation’. Given the avian constraint of laying a single egg per day, the first eggs of a clutch are subject to prolonged effects of nest temperature relative to later laid eggs, potentially increasing hatching asynchrony. While birds may ameliorate the negative effects of ambient incubation on embryonic development by varying the location and design of their nests, high atmospheric temperatures are likely to constitute an important selective force on avian reproductive behaviour and physiology in subtropical and tropical regions, particularly in the light of predicted climate change that in many areas is leading to a higher frequency of hot days during the periods when birds breed. PMID:26998315

Aerial estimation of the size of gull breeding colonies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kadlec, J.A.; Drury, W.H.

1968-01-01

Counts on photographs and visual estimates of the numbers of territorial gulls are usually reliable indicators of the number of gull nests, but single visual estimates are not adequate to measure the number of nests in individual colonies. To properly interpret gull counts requires that several islands with known numbers of nests be photographed to establish the ratio of gulls to nests applicable for a given local census. Visual estimates are adequate to determine total breeding gull numbers by regions. Neither visual estimates nor photography will reliably detect annual changes of less than about 2.5 percent.

Terrestrial nest-building by wild chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes): implications for the tree-to-ground sleep transition in early hominins.

PubMed

Koops, Kathelijne; McGrew, William C; Matsuzawa, Tetsuro; Knapp, Leslie A

2012-07-01

Nest-building is a great ape universal and arboreal nesting in chimpanzees and bonobos suggests that the common ancestor of Pan and Homo also nested in trees. It has been proposed that arboreal nest-building remained the prevailing pattern until Homo erectus, a fully terrestrial biped, emerged. We investigated the unusual occurrence of ground-nesting in chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes), which may inform on factors influencing the tree-to-ground sleep transition in the hominin lineage. We used a novel genetic approach to examine ground-nesting in unhabituated chimpanzees at Seringbara in the Nimba Mountains, Guinea. Previous research showed that ground-nesting at Seringbara was not ecologically determined. Here, we tested a possible mate-guarding function of ground-nesting by analyzing DNA from shed hairs collected from ground nests and tree nests found in close proximity. We examined whether or not ground-nesting was a group-level behavioral pattern and whether or not it occurred in more than one community. We used multiple genetic markers to identify sex and to examine variation in mitochondrial DNA control region (HV1, HV2) sequences. Ground-nesting was a male-biased behavior and males constructed more elaborate ("night") nests than simple ("day") nests on the ground. The mate-guarding hypothesis was not supported, as ground and associated tree nests were built either by maternally-related males or possibly by the same individuals. Ground-nesting was widespread and likely habitual in two communities. We suggest that terrestrial nest-building may have already occurred in arboreally-adapted early hominins before the emergence of H. erectus. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Use of novel nest boxes by carmine bee-eaters (Merops nubicus) in captivity.

PubMed

Elston, Jennifer J; Carney, Jennifer; Quinones, Glorieli; Sky, Christy; Plasse, Chelle; Bettinger, Tammie

2007-01-01

Carmine bee-eaters make attractive additions to zoo aviaries but breeding programs have had challenges and limited success. The objectives of this study were to document nesting behavior of Carmine bee-eaters in a captive setting and compare reproductive success between a novel nest box (plastic, 17 x 30 x 22 cm) and a PVC pipe model used previously (30 cm long, 8 cm in diameter). Three bee-eater pairs were given access to seven nest chambers (six novel boxes, one PVC model). Behavioral observations occurred during a 15-min period in the morning or afternoon before egg production and continued until chicks fledged for a total of 87 observation periods (21.75 hr). All occurrences by an individual bird entering or exiting a nest tunnel, food provision, and the time (min) spent inside a nest cavity were documented. Additionally, daily temperature within each nest chamber was recorded. Before eggs were produced the average daily temperature (23.02 degrees C) within the nest chambers did not differ, suggesting that nest cavity choice was not influenced by temperature. No differences were detected among pairs in percent of observed time spent inside their nest cavities or number of times a nest tunnel was entered during the incubation or fledging periods. During incubation females spent a greater percent of observed time inside the nest cavity than males (P=0.02). During the fledging period food provision did not differ between the pairs, however males entered their nest tunnels more often per hour than females (P=0.03), and males tended to provide food more often than females (P=0.053). Two pairs nested in novel nest boxes and successfully fledged one chick each. The pair that nested in the PVC model did not fledge a chick. A nest box that aids in keeping eggs intact is essential for breeding bee-eaters in captivity, and maintaining captive populations will provide opportunities for zoo visitors to enjoy these birds and will reduce the need to remove birds from the wild. Zoo Biol 0:1-13, 2007. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Final Report Collaborative Project. Improving the Representation of Coastal and Estuarine Processes in Earth System Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bryan, Frank; Dennis, John; MacCready, Parker

This project aimed to improve long term global climate simulations by resolving and enhancing the representation of the processes involved in the cycling of freshwater through estuaries and coastal regions. This was a collaborative multi-institution project consisting of physical oceanographers, climate model developers, and computational scientists. It specifically targeted the DOE objectives of advancing simulation and predictive capability of climate models through improvements in resolution and physical process representation. The main computational objectives were: 1. To develop computationally efficient, but physically based, parameterizations of estuary and continental shelf mixing processes for use in an Earth System Model (CESM). 2. Tomore » develop a two-way nested regional modeling framework in order to dynamically downscale the climate response of particular coastal ocean regions and to upscale the impact of the regional coastal processes to the global climate in an Earth System Model (CESM). 3. To develop computational infrastructure to enhance the efficiency of data transfer between specific sources and destinations, i.e., a point-to-point communication capability, (used in objective 1) within POP, the ocean component of CESM.« less

A Role for Nonapeptides and Dopamine in Nest-Building Behaviour

PubMed Central

Hall, Z J; Healy, S D; Meddle, S L

2015-01-01

During nest building in zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata), several regions in the social behaviour network and the dopaminergic reward system, which are two neural circuits involved in social behaviour, appear to be active in male and female nest-building finches. Because the nonapeptides, mesotocin and vasotocin and the neurotransmitter, dopamine, play important roles in avian social behaviour, we tested the hypothesis that mesotocinergic-vasotocinergic and dopaminergic neuronal populations in the social behaviour network and dopaminergic reward system, respectively, are active during nest building. We combined immunohistochemistry for Fos (an indirect marker of neuronal activity) and vasotocin, mesotocin or tyrosine hydroxylase on brain tissue from nest-building and non-nest-building male and female zebra finches and compared Fos immunoreactivity in these neuronal populations with the variation in nest-building behaviour. Fos immunoreactivity in all three types of neuronal populations increased with some aspect of nest building: (i) higher immunoreactivity in a mesotocinergic neuronal population of nest-building finches compared to controls; (ii) increased immunoreactivity in the vasotocinergic neuronal populations in relation to the amount of material picked up by nest-building males and the length of time that a male spent in the nest with his mate; and (iii) increased immunoreactivity in a dopaminergic neuronal population in relation to the length of time that a male nest-building finch spent in the nest with his mate. Taken together, these findings provide evidence for a role of the mesotocinergic-vasotocinergic and dopaminergic systems in avian nest building. PMID:25514990

The implications of variable remigration intervals for the assessment of population size in marine turtles.

PubMed

Hays, G C

2000-09-21

Sea turtles nest on sandy beaches and tend to show high fidelity to specific nesting areas, but, despite this fidelity, the inter-annual variation in nesting numbers may be large. This variation may reflect the fact that turtles do not usually nest in consecutive years. Here, theoretical models are developed in which the interval between successive nesting years (the remigration interval) reflects conditions encountered on the feeding grounds, with good feeding years leading to a reduction in the remigration interval and vice versa. These simple models produce high levels of inter-annual variation in nesting numbers with, on occasion, almost no turtles nesting in some years even when the population is large and stable. The implications for assessing the size of sea turtle populations are considered. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

Cerulean warbler reproduction, survival, and models of population decline

Treesearch

David A. Buehler; James J. Giocomo; Jason Jones; Paul B. Hamel; Christopher M. Rogers; Tiffany A. Beachy; Dustin W. Varble; Charles P. Nicholson; Kirk L. Roth; JEnnifer Barg; Raleigh J. Robertson; Joseph R. Robb; Kamal Islam

2008-01-01

We present and compare demographic data for cerulean warblers (Dendroica cerulea) from 5 study sites across the range of the species from 1992 to 2006. We conducted field studies to collect data on daily nest survival, nest success, and young fledged per successful nest, and we used data to estimate fecundity. Daily nest survival, nest success, young...

Crucial nesting habitat for gunnison sage-grouse: A spatially explicit hierarchical approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aldridge, Cameron L.; Saher, D.J.; Childers, T.M.; Stahlnecker, K.E.; Bowen, Z.H.

2012-01-01

Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of special concern and is currently considered a candidate species under Endangered Species Act. Careful management is therefore required to ensure that suitable habitat is maintained, particularly because much of the species' current distribution is faced with exurban development pressures. We assessed hierarchical nest site selection patterns of Gunnison sage-grouse inhabiting the western portion of the Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA, at multiple spatial scales, using logistic regression-based resource selection functions. Models were selected using Akaike Information Criterion corrected for small sample sizes (AIC c) and predictive surfaces were generated using model averaged relative probabilities. Landscape-scale factors that had the most influence on nest site selection included the proportion of sagebrush cover >5%, mean productivity, and density of 2 wheel-drive roads. The landscape-scale predictive surface captured 97% of known Gunnison sage-grouse nests within the top 5 of 10 prediction bins, implicating 57% of the basin as crucial nesting habitat. Crucial habitat identified by the landscape model was used to define the extent for patch-scale modeling efforts. Patch-scale variables that had the greatest influence on nest site selection were the proportion of big sagebrush cover >10%, distance to residential development, distance to high volume paved roads, and mean productivity. This model accurately predicted independent nest locations. The unique hierarchical structure of our models more accurately captures the nested nature of habitat selection, and allowed for increased discrimination within larger landscapes of suitable habitat. We extrapolated the landscape-scale model to the entire Gunnison Basin because of conservation concerns for this species. We believe this predictive surface is a valuable tool which can be incorporated into land use and conservation planning as well the assessment of future land-use scenarios. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Dynamics and Predictability of The Eta Regional Model: The Role of Domain Size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vannitsem, S.; Chomé, F.; Nicolis, C.

This paper investigates the dynamical properties of the Eta model, a state-of-the- art nested limited-area model, following the approach previously developed by the present authors. It is first shown that the intrinsic dynamics of the model depends crucially on the size of the domain, with a non-chaotic behavior for small domains, supporting earlier findings on the absence of sensitivity to the initial conditions in these models. The quality of the predictions of several Eta model versions differing by their domain size is next evaluated and compared with the Avn analyses on a targeted region, centered on France. Contrary to what is usually taken for granted, a non-trivial relation between predictability and domain size is found, the best model versions be- ing the ones integrated on the smallest and the largest domain sizes. An explanation in connection with the intrinsic dynamics of the model is advanced.

8.0 Integrating the effect of terrestrial ecosystem health and land use on the hydrology, habitat, and water quality of the Delaware River and estuary

Treesearch

Peter S. Murdoch; John L. Hom; Yude Pan; Jeffrey M. Fischer

2008-01-01

To complete the collaborative monitoring study of forested landscapes within the DRB, regional perspective on the cumulative effect of different disturbances on overall ecosystem health. This section describes two modeling activities used as integrating tools for the CEMRI database and a validation system that used nested river monitoring stations.

Summer bird use of Kansas windbreaks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cable, T.T.; Schroeder, R.L.; Brack, V.; Cook, P.S.

1992-01-01

Twenty-four windbreaks in Stafford and Pawnee counties in Kansas were censused for birds during the nesting seasons of 1988-1990. Eighty-nine species of birds were found in the windbreaks with 60 species believed to be nesting. Fifteen species used the windbreaks for feeding or as singing perches but did not nest, and 14 species were spring migrants. Species representing 20 taxonomic families and 15 foraging guilds nested in the windbreaks. Fifteen species were members of the omnivore/ground forager guild. Five species considered forest interior or area sensitive were found nesting in the windbreaks. Windbreak area was important in determining which species were present. Windbreaks provide habitat for a large component of the Great Plains' avifauna, including some species whose populations are decreasing in the region.

Long-term lesser prairie-chicken nest ecology in response to grassland management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fritts, Sarah R.; Grisham, Blake A.; Haukos, David A.; Boal, Clint W.; Patten, Michael; Wolfe, Don H.; Dixon, Charles; Cox, Robert D.; Heck, Willard R.

2016-01-01

Long-term population and range declines from habitat loss and fragmentation caused the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) to be a species of concern throughout its range. Current lesser prairie-chicken range in New Mexico and Texas is partially restricted to sand shinnery oak (Quercus havardii; hereafter shinnery oak) prairies, on which cattle grazing is the main socioeconomic driver for private landowners. Cattle producers within shinnery oak prairies often focus land management on shrub eradication using the herbicide tebuthiuron to promote grass production for forage; however, herbicide application alone, and in combination with grazing, may affect nest site selection and nest survival of lesser prairie-chickens through the reduction of shinnery oak and native grasses. We used a controlled, paired, completely randomized design study to assess the influence of grazing and tebuthiuron application and their combined use on nest site selection and nest survival from 2001 to 2010 in Roosevelt County, New Mexico, USA at 2 spatial scales (i.e., treatment and microhabitat) in 4 treatments: tebuthiuron with grazing, tebuthiuron without grazing, no tebuthiuron with grazing, and a control of no tebuthiuron and no grazing. Grazing treatment was a short-duration system in which plots were grazed once during the dormant season and once during the growing season. Stocking rate was calculated each season based on measured forage production and applied to remove ≤25% of available herbaceous material per season. At the treatment scale, we compared nest site selection among treatments using 1-way χ2 tests and nest survival among treatments using a priori candidate nest survival models in Program MARK. At the microhabitat scale, we identified important habitat predictors of nest site selection and nest survival using logistic regression and a priori candidate nest survival models in Program MARK, respectively. Females typically used treatments as expected and we did not detect trends in selection. Nest survival did not differ among treatments. At the microhabitat scale, nest sites had less bare ground (P = 0.001) and greater angles of obstruction (P ≤ 0.001) compared to random sites. There was a high degree of model selection uncertainty among our candidate models at the microhabitat scale and survival estimates were similar among habitat covariates. Results suggest a tebuthiuron application rate of 0.60 kg/ha, short-duration grazing, and a combination of these management techniques were not detrimental to lesser prairie-chicken nest site selection or nest survival. However, intensified management that increases bare ground or reduces overhead cover may negatively affect lesser prairie-chicken nesting habitat and nest survival.

Duckling survival, fecundity, and habitat selection of mottled duck broods on the upper Texas Gulf Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rigby, Elizabeth A.; Haukos, David A.

2015-01-01

Mottled ducks (Anas fulvigula) on the western Gulf Coast have exhibited a steep population decline since the mid 1990s. Low rates of breeding incidence and nest success have been implicated in this decline, but duckling survival and the habitat needs of broods have not been previously investigated in this region. We fitted mottled duck ducklings and adult females with radio transmitters and tracked broods to estimate duckling survival and brood habitat selection on the upper Texas Gulf Coast. Duckling survival to 30 days was high (range among models 0.354–0.567) compared to other dabbling duck species. Estimated fecundity was low, (range among models 0.398–0.634) however, indicating that overall reproductive output is low. Within coastal marsh, broods selected home ranges with more water cover and less upland and fresh marsh landcover than was available in the study area. Within coastal marsh home ranges, broods selected for water cover relative to other landcover types, and there was some evidence that broods avoided unvegetated landcover. Although high quality brood habitat is undeniably important, management efforts to increase mottled duck population growth on the western Gulf Coast may best be spent on increasing nesting habitat quality to increase nest success and breeding incidence.

Sensitivity of the Carolina Coastal Ocean Circulation to Open Boundary and Atmospheric Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Xie, L.; Pietrafesa, L.

2003-12-01

The ocean circulation on the continental shelf off the Carolina coast is characterized by a complex flow regime and temporal variability, which is influenced by atmospheric forcing, the Gulf Stream system, complex coastline and bathymetry, river discharge and tidal forcing. In this study, a triple-nested, HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) is used to simulate the coastal ocean circulation on the continental shelf off the Carolina coast and its interactions with the offshore large-scale ocean circulation system. The horizontal mesh size in the innermost domain was set to 1 km, whereas the outermost domain coincides with the near real-time 1/12­’ Atlantic HYCOM Nowcast/Forecast System operated at the Naval Research Laboratory. The intermediate domain uses a mesh size of 3 km. Atmospheric forcing fields for the Carolina coastal region are derived from the NOAA operational ETA model, the ECMWF reanalysis fields and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis fields. These forcing fields are derived at 0.8›¦, 1.125›¦ and 1.875›¦ resolutions, and at intervals of 6 hour, daily and monthly. The sensitivity of the model results to the spatial and temporal resolution of the atmospheric forcing fields is analyzed. To study the dependence of the model sensitivity on the model grid size, single-window simulations at resolutions of 1km, 3km and 9km are carried out using the same forcing fields that were applied to the nested system. Comparisons between the nested and the single domain simulation results will be presented.

Habitat use of breeding green turtles Chelonia mydas tagged in Dry Tortugas National Park: Making use of local and regional MPAs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hart, Kristen; Zawada, David G.; Fujisaki, Ikuko; Lidz, Barbara H.

2013-01-01

Use of existing marine protected areas (MPAs) by far-ranging marine turtles can be determined using satellite telemetry. Because of a lack of information on MPA use by marine turtles in the Gulf of Mexico, we used satellite transmitters in 2010 and 2011 to track movements of 11 adult female breeding green turtles (Chelonia mydas) tagged in Dry Tortugas National Park (DRTO), in the Gulf of Mexico, south Florida, USA. Throughout the study period, turtles emerged every 9–18 days to nest. During the intervals between nesting episodes (i.e., inter-nesting periods), the turtles consistently used a common core-area within the DRTO boundary, determined using individual 50% kernel-density estimates (KDEs). We mapped the area in DRTO where individual turtle 50% KDEs overlapped using the USGS Along-Track Reef-Imaging System, and determined the diversity and distribution of various benthic-cover types within the mapped area. We also tracked turtles post-nesting as they transited to foraging sites 5–282 km away from tagging beaches; these sites were located both within DRTO and in the surrounding area of the Florida Keys and Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS), a regional MPA. Year-round residency of 9 out of 11 individuals (82%) both within DRTO and in the FKNMS represents novel non-migratory behavior, which offers an opportunity for conservation of this imperiled species at both local and regional scales. These data comprise the first satellite-tracking results on adult nesting green turtles at this remote study site. Additional tracking could reveal whether the distinct inter-nesting and foraging sites delineated here will be repeatedly used in the future by these and other breeding green turtles.

Nesting ecology of Greater Sandhill Cranes (Grus canadensis tabida) in riparian and palustrine wetlands of eastern Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

McWethy, D.B.; Austin, J.E.

2009-01-01

Little information exists on breeding Greater Sandhill Cranes (Grus canadensis tabida) in riparian wetlands of the Intermountain West. We examined the nesting ecology of Sandhill Cranes associated with riparian and palustrine wetlands in the Henry's Fork Watershed in eastern Idaho in 2003. We located 36 active crane nests, 19 in riparian wetlands and 17 in palustrine wetlands. Nesting sites were dominated by rushes (Juncus spp.), sedges (Carex spp.), Broad-leaved Cattail (Typha latifolia) and willow (Salix spp.), and adjacent foraging areas were primarily composed of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.), cinquefoil (Potentilla spp.),Rabbitbrush (Ericameria bloomeri) bunch grasses, upland forbs, Quaking Aspen (Populus tremuloides) and cottonwood (Populus spp.). Mean water depth surrounding nests was 23 cm (SD = 22). A majority of nests (61%) were surrounded by vegetation between 3060 cm, 23% by vegetation 60 cm in height. We were able to determine the fate of 29 nests, of which 20 were successful (69%). Daily nest survival was 0.986 (95% LCI 0.963, UCI 0.995), equivalent to a Mayfield nest success of 0.654 (95% LCI 0.324, UCI 0.853). Model selection favored models with the covariates vegetation type, vegetation height, and water depth. Nest survival increased with increasing water depth surrounding nest sites. Mean water depth was higher around successful nests (30 cm, SD = 21) than unsuccessful nests (15 cm, SD 22). Further research is needed to evaluate the relative contribution of cranes nesting in palustrine and riparian wetlands distributed widely across the Intermountain West.

Genome Dynamics and Evolution of the Mla (Powdery Mildew) Resistance Locus in BarleyW⃞

PubMed Central

Wei, Fusheng; Wing, Rod A.; Wise, Roger P.

2002-01-01

Genes that confer defense against pathogens often are clustered in the genome and evolve via diverse mechanisms. To evaluate the organization and content of a major defense gene complex in cereals, we determined the complete sequence of a 261-kb BAC contig from barley cv Morex that spans the Mla (powdery mildew) resistance locus. Among the 32 predicted genes on this contig, 15 are associated with plant defense responses; 6 of these are associated with defense responses to powdery mildew disease but function in different signaling pathways. The Mla region is organized as three gene-rich islands separated by two nested complexes of transposable elements and a 45-kb gene-poor region. A heterochromatic-like region is positioned directly proximal to Mla and is composed of a gene-poor core with 17 families of diverse tandem repeats that overlap a hypermethylated, but transcriptionally active, gene-dense island. Paleontology analysis of long terminal repeat retrotransposons indicates that the present Mla region evolved over a period of >7 million years through a variety of duplication, inversion, and transposon-insertion events. Sequence-based recombination estimates indicate that R genes positioned adjacent to nested long terminal repeat retrotransposons, such as Mla, do not favor recombination as a means of diversification. We present a model for the evolution of the Mla region that encompasses several emerging features of large cereal genomes. PMID:12172030

A Bayesian network approach to predicting nest presence of thefederally-threatened piping plover (Charadrius melodus) using barrier island features

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gieder, Katherina D.; Karpanty, Sarah M.; Fraser, James D.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Turecek, Aaron M.; Thieler, E. Robert

2014-01-01

Sea-level rise and human development pose significant threats to shorebirds, particularly for species that utilize barrier island habitat. The piping plover (Charadrius melodus) is a federally-listed shorebird that nests on barrier islands and rapidly responds to changes in its physical environment, making it an excellent species with which to model how shorebird species may respond to habitat change related to sea-level rise and human development. The uncertainty and complexity in predicting sea-level rise, the responses of barrier island habitats to sea-level rise, and the responses of species to sea-level rise and human development necessitate a modelling approach that can link species to the physical habitat features that will be altered by changes in sea level and human development. We used a Bayesian network framework to develop a model that links piping plover nest presence to the physical features of their nesting habitat on a barrier island that is impacted by sea-level rise and human development, using three years of data (1999, 2002, and 2008) from Assateague Island National Seashore in Maryland. Our model performance results showed that we were able to successfully predict nest presence given a wide range of physical conditions within the model’s dataset. We found that model predictions were more successful when the range of physical conditions included in model development was varied rather than when those physical conditions were narrow. We also found that all model predictions had fewer false negatives (nests predicted to be absent when they were actually present in the dataset) than false positives (nests predicted to be present when they were actually absent in the dataset), indicating that our model correctly predicted nest presence better than nest absence. These results indicated that our approach of using a Bayesian network to link specific physical features to nest presence will be useful for modelling impacts of sea-level rise- or human-related habitat change on barrier islands. We recommend that potential users of this method utilize multiple years of data that represent a wide range of physical conditions in model development, because the model performed less well when constructed using a narrow range of physical conditions. Further, given that there will always be some uncertainty in predictions of future physical habitat conditions related to sea-level rise and/or human development, predictive models will perform best when developed using multiple, varied years of data input.

Excessive nest building is a unique behavioural phenotype in the deer mouse model of obsessive-compulsive disorder.

PubMed

Wolmarans, De Wet; Stein, Dan J; Harvey, Brian H

2016-09-01

Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is a phenotypically heterogeneous condition characterised by time-consuming intrusive thoughts and/or compulsions. Irrespective of the symptom type diagnosed, the severity of OCD is characterised by heterogeneity in symptom presentation that complicates diagnosis and treatment. Heterogeneity of symptoms would be invaluable in an animal model. Nest building behaviour forms part of the normal behavioural repertoire of rodents and demonstrates profound between-species differences. However, it has been proposed that within-species differences in nest building behaviour (i.e. aberrant vs. normal nest building) may resemble obsessive-compulsive-like symptoms. In an attempt to investigate whether other obsessive-compulsive-like behaviours are present in an animal model of OCD, or if aberrant nest building behaviour may represent a unique obsessive-compulsive phenotype in such a model, the current study assessed nest building behaviour in high (H, viz obsessive-compulsive) and non (N, viz normal) stereotypical deer mice. Subsequently, 12 N and H animals, respectively, were provided with an excess of cotton wool daily for one week prior to and following four weeks of high-dose oral escitalopram treatment (50 mg/kg/day). Data from the current investigation demonstrate daily nesting activity to be highly variable in deer mice, with stereotypy and nest building being independent behaviours. However, we identified unique aberrant large nest building behaviour in 30% of animals from both cohorts that was attenuated by escitalopram to pre-treatment nesting scores of the larger group. In summary, behavioural and drug-treatment evidence confirms that deer mouse behaviour does indeed resemble symptom heterogeneity related to OCD, and as such expands its face and predictive validity for the disorder. © The Author(s) 2016.

Nest poaching in Neotropical parrots

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wright, T.F.; Toft, C.A.; Enkerlin-Hoeflich, E.; Gonzalez-Elizondo, J.; Albornoz, M.; Rodriguez-Ferraro, A.; Rojas-Suarez, F.; Sanz, V.; Trujillo, A.; Beissinger, S.R.; Berovides A., V.; Galvez A., X.; Brice, A.T.; Joyner, K.; Eberhard, J.; Gilardi, J.; Koenig, S.E.; Stoleson, S.; Martuscelli, P.; Meyers, J.M.; Renton, K.; Rodriguez, A.M.; Sosa-Asanza, A.C.; Vilella, F.J.; Wiley, J.W.

2001-01-01

Although the poaching of nestlings for the pet trade is thought to contribute to the decline of many species of parrots, its effects have been poorly demonstrated. We calculated rates of mortality due to nest poaching in 23 studies of Neotropical parrots, representing 4024 nesting attempts in 21 species and 14 countries. We also examined how poaching rates vary with geographic region, presence of active protection programs, conservation status and economic value of a species, and passage of the U.S. Wild Bird Conservation Act. The average poaching rate across all studies was 30% of all nests observed. Thirteen studies reported poaching rates of >20%, and four reported rates of >70%. Only six studies documented no nest poaching. Of these, four were conducted on islands in the Caribbean region, which had significantly lower poaching rates than the mainland Neotropics. The other two studies that showed no poaching were conducted on the two species with the lowest economic value in our sample (U.S. retail price). In four studies that allowed direct comparison between poaching at sites with active nest protection versus that at unprotected sites, poaching rates were significantly lower at protected sites, suggesting that active protection efforts can be effective in reducing nest poaching. In those studies conducted both before and after the passage of the U.S. Wild Bird Conservation Act, poaching rates were found to be significantly lower following its enactment than in the period before. This result supports the hypothesis that the legal and illegal parrot trades are positively related, rather than inversely related as has been suggested by avicultural interests. Overall, our study indicates that poaching of parrot nestlings for economic gain is a widespread and biologically significant source of nest mortality in Neotropical parrots.

Nest-site selection and reproductive success of greater sage-grouse in a fire-affected habitat of northwestern Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lockyer, Zachary B.; Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.; Espinosa, Shawn; Delehanty, David J.

2015-01-01

Identifying links between micro-habitat selection and wildlife reproduction is imperative to population persistence and recovery. This information is particularly important for landscape species such as greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage-grouse). Although this species has been widely studied, because environmental factors can affect sage-grouse populations, local and regional studies are crucial for developing viable conservation strategies. We studied the habitat-use patterns of 71 radio-marked sage-grouse inhabiting an area affected by wildfire in the Virginia Mountains of northwestern Nevada during 2009–2011 to determine the effect of micro-habitat attributes on reproductive success. We measured standard vegetation parameters at nest and random sites using a multi-scale approach (range = 0.01–15,527 ha). We used an information-theoretic modeling approach to identify environmental factors influencing nest-site selection and survival, and determine whether nest survival was a function of resource selection. Sage-grouse selected micro-sites with greater shrub canopy cover and less cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) cover than random sites. Total shrub canopy, including sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) and other shrub species, at small spatial scales (0.8 ha and 3.1 ha) was the single contributing selection factor to higher nest survival. These results indicate that reducing the risk of wildfire to maintain important sagebrush habitats could be emphasized in sage-grouse conservation strategies in Nevada. Managers may seek to mitigate the influx of annual grass invasion by preserving large intact sagebrush-dominated stands with a mixture of other shrub species. For this area of Nevada, the results suggest that ≥40% total shrub canopy cover in sage-grouse nesting areas could yield improved reproductive success. 

Extremes of heat, drought and precipitation depress reproductive performance in shortgrass prairie passerines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conrey, Reesa Y.; Skagen, Susan K.; Yackel, Amy; Panjabi, Arvind O.

2016-01-01

Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it is likely to exacerbate many identified threats to animal populations. In recent decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American bird species, a loss thought to be due to habitat loss and fragmentation and changing agricultural practices. Climate change poses additional threats of unknown magnitude to these already declining populations. We examined how seasonal and daily weather conditions over 10 years influenced nest survival of five species of insectivorous passerines native to the shortgrass prairie and evaluate our findings relative to future climate predictions for this region. Daily nest survival (n = 870) was best predicted by a combination of daily and seasonal weather variables, age of nest, time in season and bird habitat guild. Within a season, survival rates were lower on very hot days (temperatures ≥ 35 °C), on dry days (with a lag of 1 day) and on stormy days (especially for those species nesting in shorter vegetation). Across years, survival rates were also lower during warmer and drier breeding seasons. Clutch sizes were larger when early spring temperatures were cool and the week prior to egg-laying was wetter and warming. Climate change is likely to exacerbate grassland bird population declines because projected climate conditions include rising temperatures, more prolonged drought and more intense storms as the hydrological cycle is altered. Under varying realistic scenarios, nest success estimates were halved compared to their current average value when models both increased the temperature (3 °C) and decreased precipitation (two additional dry days during a nesting period), thus underscoring a sense of urgency in identifying and addressing the current causes of range-wide declines.

Factors associated with duck nest success in the prairie pothole region of Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Greenwood, Raymond J.; Sargeant, Alan B.; Johnson, Douglas H.; Cowardin, Lewis M.; Shaffer, Terry L.

1995-01-01

Populations of some dabbling ducks have declined sharply in recent decades and information is needed to understand reasons for this. During 1982-85, we studied duck nesting for 1-4 years in 17 1.6 by 16.0-km, high-density duck areas in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of Canada, 9 in parkland and 8 in prairie. We estimated nest-initiation dates, habitat preferences, nest success, and nest fates for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), gadwalls (A. strepera), blue-winged teals (A. discors), northern shovelers (A. clypeata), and northern pintails (A. acuta). We also examined the relation of mallard production to geographic and temporal variation in wetlands, breeding populations, nesting effort, and hatch rate.Average periods of nest initiation were similar for mallards and northern pintails, and nearly twice as long as those of gadwalls, blue-winged teals, and northern shovelers. Median date of nest initiation was related to presence of wet wetlands (contained visible standing water), spring precipitation, and May temperature. Length of initiation period was related to presence of wet wetlands and precipitation in May, June temperature, and nest success; it was negatively related overall to drought that prevailed over much of Prairie Canada during the study, especially in 1984.Mallards, gadwalls, and northern pintails nested most often in brush in native grassland, blue-winged teals in road rights-of-way, and northern shovelers in hayfields and small (< 2 ha) untilled tracts of upland habitat (hereafter called Odd area). Among 8 habitat classes that composed all suitable nesting habitat of each study area, nest success estimates averaged 25% in Woodland, 19% in Brush, 18% in Hayland, 16% in Wetland, 15% in Grass, 11% in Odd area, 8% in Right-of-way, and 2% in Cropland. We detected no significant difference in nest success among species: mallard (11%), gadwall (14%), blue-winged teal (15%), northern shoveler (12%), and northern pintail (7%). Annual nest success (pooled by study area and averaged [unweighted] over all study areas) was 17% in 1982, 15% in 1983, 7% in 1984, and 14% in 1985.We estimated that predators destroyed 72% of mallard, gadwall, blue-winged teal, and northern shoveler nests and 65% of northern pintail nests. In prairie, average nest success decreased about 4 percentage points for every 10 percentage points increase in Cropland, suggesting that under conditions of 1982-85, local populations of these species probably were not stable when Cropland exceeded about 56% of available habitat. We found recent remains of 573 dead ducks during 1983-85; most were females (Anas spp.) apparently killed by predators. In some years, mallards and northern pintails were more numerous among dead ducks than we expected. More females than males were found dead among mallards and northern shovelers, suggesting higher vulnerability of females. Of factors we examined, nest-success rate appeared to be the most influential factor in determining mallard production. Nest success varied both geographically and annually.

A regional ocean model for the Southwest Pacific Ocean region to assess the risk of storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Natoo, N.; Paul, A.; Hadfield, M.; Jendersie, S.; Bornman, J.; de Lange, W.; Ye, W.; Schulz, M.

2012-04-01

New Zealand's coasts are not only affected by mid-latitude storms, but infrequently also by storms that originate from the tropics. Projections for the southern hemisphere's southwest Pacific island countries for the 21st century show a poleward shift of the mid-latitude storm tracks, which consequently might result in changes in wind, precipitation and temperature patterns. Furthermore, an increase in frequency of intense storms is expected for the New Zealand region, which will very likely increase the risk of storm surges and flooding of coastal and low-lying regions. We employ the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to assess the changes in the storm climate of the New Zealand region. The model set-up uses a resolution of ~50 km for the Southwest Pacific Ocean "parent domain" and ~10 km for the New Zealand "child domain", to well represent the major eddies that influence the climate of North Island. With the aim to later utilize this nested ocean model set-up as part of a coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling system for the Southwest Pacific Ocean region, results for the 20th century will be presented. The simulated circulation is shown to be largely consistent with the observed regional oceanography.

A new vertical grid nesting capability in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

DOE PAGES

Daniels, Megan H.; Lundquist, Katherine A.; Mirocha, Jeffrey D.; ...

2016-09-16

Mesoscale atmospheric models are increasingly used for high-resolution (<3 km) simulations to better resolve smaller-scale flow details. Increased resolution is achieved using mesh refinement via grid nesting, a procedure where multiple computational domains are integrated either concurrently or in series. A constraint in the concurrent nesting framework offered by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is that mesh refinement is restricted to the horizontal dimensions. This limitation prevents control of the grid aspect ratio, leading to numerical errors due to poor grid quality and preventing grid optimization. Here, a procedure permitting vertical nesting for one-way concurrent simulation is developedmore » and validated through idealized cases. The benefits of vertical nesting are demonstrated using both mesoscale and large-eddy simulations (LES). Mesoscale simulations of the Terrain-Induced Rotor Experiment (T-REX) show that vertical grid nesting can alleviate numerical errors due to large aspect ratios on coarse grids, while allowing for higher vertical resolution on fine grids. Furthermore, the coarsening of the parent domain does not result in a significant loss of accuracy on the nested domain. LES of neutral boundary layer flow shows that, by permitting optimal grid aspect ratios on both parent and nested domains, use of vertical nesting yields improved agreement with the theoretical logarithmic velocity profile on both domains. Lastly, vertical grid nesting in WRF opens the path forward for multiscale simulations, allowing more accurate simulations spanning a wider range of scales than previously possible.« less

A new vertical grid nesting capability in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daniels, Megan H.; Lundquist, Katherine A.; Mirocha, Jeffrey D.

Mesoscale atmospheric models are increasingly used for high-resolution (<3 km) simulations to better resolve smaller-scale flow details. Increased resolution is achieved using mesh refinement via grid nesting, a procedure where multiple computational domains are integrated either concurrently or in series. A constraint in the concurrent nesting framework offered by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is that mesh refinement is restricted to the horizontal dimensions. This limitation prevents control of the grid aspect ratio, leading to numerical errors due to poor grid quality and preventing grid optimization. Here, a procedure permitting vertical nesting for one-way concurrent simulation is developedmore » and validated through idealized cases. The benefits of vertical nesting are demonstrated using both mesoscale and large-eddy simulations (LES). Mesoscale simulations of the Terrain-Induced Rotor Experiment (T-REX) show that vertical grid nesting can alleviate numerical errors due to large aspect ratios on coarse grids, while allowing for higher vertical resolution on fine grids. Furthermore, the coarsening of the parent domain does not result in a significant loss of accuracy on the nested domain. LES of neutral boundary layer flow shows that, by permitting optimal grid aspect ratios on both parent and nested domains, use of vertical nesting yields improved agreement with the theoretical logarithmic velocity profile on both domains. Lastly, vertical grid nesting in WRF opens the path forward for multiscale simulations, allowing more accurate simulations spanning a wider range of scales than previously possible.« less

Comparison of a conventional and nested PCR for diagnostic confirmation and genotyping of Orientia tsutsugamushi.

PubMed

Janardhanan, Jeshina; Prakash, John Antony Jude; Abraham, Ooriapadickal C; Varghese, George M

2014-05-01

A nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR) targeting the 56-kDa antigen gene is currently the most commonly used molecular technique for confirmation of scrub typhus and genotyping of Orientia tsutsugamushi. In this study, we have compared the commonly used nested PCR (N-PCR) with a single-step conventional PCR (C-PCR) for amplification and genotyping. Eschar samples collected from 24 patients with scrub typhus confirmed by IgM enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay were used for DNA extraction following which amplifications were carried out using nested and C-PCR methods. The amplicons were sequenced and compared to other sequences in the database using BLAST. Conventional PCR showed a high positivity rate of 95.8% compared to the 75% observed using N-PCR. On sequence analysis, the N-PCR amplified region showed more variation among strains than the C-PCR amplified region. The C-PCR, which is more economical, provided faster and better results compared to N-PCR. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Wetland and microhabitat use by nesting four-toed salamanders in Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chalmers, R.J.; Loftin, C.S.

2006-01-01

Little is known of Four-Toed Salamander (Hemidactylium scutatum) habitat use, despite the species' extensive range and elevated conservation status. We investigated species-habitat relationships that predict H. scutatum nesting presence in Maine at wetland and microhabitat scales by comparing microhabitats with and without nests. We created logistic regression models, selected models with AIC, and evaluated models with reserve data. Wetlands with nests were best predicted by shoreline microhabitat of Sphagnum spp., wood substrate, water flow, blue-joint reed grass (Calamagrostis canadensis), meadowsweet (Spiraea alba), steeplebush (Spiraea tomentosa), sensitive fern (Onoclea sensibilis), and absence of sheep laurel (Kalmia angustifolia) or deciduous forest canopy. Within occupied wetlands, shoreline microhabitat where nests occurred was best distinguished from available, unoccupied shoreline microhabitat by steeper shore, greater near-shore and basin water depth, deeper nesting vegetation, presence of moss spp. and winterberry (Ilex verticillata), and a negative association with S. alba, leatherleaf (Chamaedaphne calyculata), and K. angustifolia. These models of wetland and microhabitat use by H. scutatum may assist ecologists and managers in detecting and conserving this species. Copyright 2006 Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles.

Can variation in risk of nest predation explain altitudinal migration in tropical birds?

PubMed

Boyle, W Alice

2008-03-01

Migration is among the best studied of animal behaviors, yet few empirical studies have tested hypotheses explaining the ultimate causes of these cyclical annual movements. Fretwell's (1980) hypothesis predicts that if nest predation explains why many tropical birds migrate uphill to breed, then predation risk must be negatively associated with elevation. Data from 385 artificial nests spanning 2,740 m of elevation on the Atlantic slope of Costa Rica show an overall decline in predation with increasing elevation. However, nest predation risk was highest at intermediate elevations (500-650 m), not at lowest elevations. The proportion of nests depredated by different types of predators differed among elevations. These results imply that over half of the altitudinal migrant bird species in this region migrate to safer breeding areas than their non-breeding areas, suggesting that variation in nest predation risk could be an important benefit of uphill migrations of many species.

Computational complexity of symbolic dynamics at the onset of chaos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lakdawala, Porus

1996-05-01

In a variety of studies of dynamical systems, the edge of order and chaos has been singled out as a region of complexity. It was suggested by Wolfram, on the basis of qualitative behavior of cellular automata, that the computational basis for modeling this region is the universal Turing machine. In this paper, following a suggestion of Crutchfield, we try to show that the Turing machine model may often be too powerful as a computational model to describe the boundary of order and chaos. In particular we study the region of the first accumulation of period doubling in unimodal and bimodal maps of the interval, from the point of view of language theory. We show that in relation to the ``extended'' Chomsky hierarchy, the relevant computational model in the unimodal case is the nested stack automaton or the related indexed languages, while the bimodal case is modeled by the linear bounded automaton or the related context-sensitive languages.

SQL/NF Translator for the Triton Nested Relational Database System

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-12-01

18as., Ohio .. 9~~ ~~ 1 4- AFIT/GCE/ENG/90D-05 SQL/Nk1 TRANSLATOR FOR THE TRITON NESTED RELATIONAL DATABASE SYSTEM THESIS Craig William Schnepf Captain...FOR THE TRITON NESTED RELATIONAL DATABASE SYSTEM THESIS Presented to the Faculty of the School of Engineering of the Air Force Institute of Technnlogy... systems . The SQL/NF query language used for the nested relationil model is an extension of the popular relational model query language SQL. The query

A role for nonapeptides and dopamine in nest-building behaviour.

PubMed

Hall, Z J; Healy, S D; Meddle, S L

2015-02-01

During nest building in zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata), several regions in the social behaviour network and the dopaminergic reward system, which are two neural circuits involved in social behaviour, appear to be active in male and female nest-building finches. Because the nonapeptides, mesotocin and vasotocin and the neurotransmitter, dopamine, play important roles in avian social behaviour, we tested the hypothesis that mesotocinergic-vasotocinergic and dopaminergic neuronal populations in the social behaviour network and dopaminergic reward system, respectively, are active during nest building. We combined immunohistochemistry for Fos (an indirect marker of neuronal activity) and vasotocin, mesotocin or tyrosine hydroxylase on brain tissue from nest-building and non-nest-building male and female zebra finches and compared Fos immunoreactivity in these neuronal populations with the variation in nest-building behaviour. Fos immunoreactivity in all three types of neuronal populations increased with some aspect of nest building: (i) higher immunoreactivity in a mesotocinergic neuronal population of nest-building finches compared to controls; (ii) increased immunoreactivity in the vasotocinergic neuronal populations in relation to the amount of material picked up by nest-building males and the length of time that a male spent in the nest with his mate; and (iii) increased immunoreactivity in a dopaminergic neuronal population in relation to the length of time that a male nest-building finch spent in the nest with his mate. Taken together, these findings provide evidence for a role of the mesotocinergic-vasotocinergic and dopaminergic systems in avian nest building. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Neuroendocrinology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Society for Neuroendocrinology.

Daily survival rate for nests and chicks of Least Terns (Sternula antillarum) at natural nest sites in South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brooks, Gillian L.; Sanders, Felicia J.; Gerard, Patrick D.; Jodice, Patrick G.R.

2013-01-01

Although a species of conservation concern, little is known about the reproductive success of Least Terns (Sternula antillarum) throughout the southeastern USA where availability of natural beaches for nesting is limited. Daily survival rate (DSR) of nests and chicks was examined at four natural nesting sites in Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge, South Carolina, 2009–2010. Measures of nest success (n = 257 nests) ranged from 0–93% among colony sites. The DSR of nests was primarily related to colony site, but year and estimates of predation risk also were related to DSR. Predation was the principal cause of identifiable nest loss, accounting for 47% of nest failures when the two years of data were pooled. The probability (± SE) of a chick surviving from hatching to fledging = 0.449 ± 0.01 (n = 92 chicks). DSR of chicks was negatively related to tide height and rainfall. Therefore, productivity of Least Terns is being lost during both the nesting and chick stage through a combination of biotic and abiotic factors that may prove difficult to fully mitigate or manage. Although natural nesting sites within Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge intermittently produce successful nests, the consistency of productivity over the long term is still unknown. Given that the long term availability of anthropogenic nest sites (e.g., rooftops, dredge-spoil islands) for Least Terns is questionable, further research is required both locally and throughout the region to assess the extent to which natural sites act as population sources or sinks.

Downscaling modelling system for multi-scale air quality forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nuterman, R.; Baklanov, A.; Mahura, A.; Amstrup, B.; Weismann, J.

2010-09-01

Urban modelling for real meteorological situations, in general, considers only a small part of the urban area in a micro-meteorological model, and urban heterogeneities outside a modelling domain affect micro-scale processes. Therefore, it is important to build a chain of models of different scales with nesting of higher resolution models into larger scale lower resolution models. Usually, the up-scaled city- or meso-scale models consider parameterisations of urban effects or statistical descriptions of the urban morphology, whereas the micro-scale (street canyon) models are obstacle-resolved and they consider a detailed geometry of the buildings and the urban canopy. The developed system consists of the meso-, urban- and street-scale models. First, it is the Numerical Weather Prediction (HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model) model combined with Atmospheric Chemistry Transport (the Comprehensive Air quality Model with extensions) model. Several levels of urban parameterisation are considered. They are chosen depending on selected scales and resolutions. For regional scale, the urban parameterisation is based on the roughness and flux corrections approach; for urban scale - building effects parameterisation. Modern methods of computational fluid dynamics allow solving environmental problems connected with atmospheric transport of pollutants within urban canopy in a presence of penetrable (vegetation) and impenetrable (buildings) obstacles. For local- and micro-scales nesting the Micro-scale Model for Urban Environment is applied. This is a comprehensive obstacle-resolved urban wind-flow and dispersion model based on the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes approach and several turbulent closures, i.e. k -ɛ linear eddy-viscosity model, k - ɛ non-linear eddy-viscosity model and Reynolds stress model. Boundary and initial conditions for the micro-scale model are used from the up-scaled models with corresponding interpolation conserving the mass. For the boundaries a kind of Dirichlet condition is chosen to provide the values based on interpolation from the coarse to the fine grid. When the roughness approach is changed to the obstacle-resolved one in the nested model, the interpolation procedure will increase the computational time (due to additional iterations) for meteorological/ chemical fields inside the urban sub-layer. In such situations, as a possible alternative, the perturbation approach can be applied. Here, the effects of main meteorological variables and chemical species are considered as a sum of two components: background (large-scale) values, described by the coarse-resolution model, and perturbations (micro-scale) features, obtained from the nested fine resolution model.

Elevated temperatures are associated with stress in rooftop-nesting Common Nighthawk (Chordeiles minor) chicks.

PubMed

Newberry, Gretchen N; Swanson, David L

2018-01-01

Grasslands and riparian forests in southeastern South Dakota have been greatly reduced since historical times, primarily due to conversion to row-crop agriculture. Common Nighthawk ( Chordeiles minor ) nesting habitat includes grasslands, open woodlands and urban rooftops, but nesting sites in southeastern South Dakota are confined to rooftops, as natural nesting habitat is limited. Nighthawks nesting on exposed rooftop habitats may encounter thermal conditions that increase operative temperatures relative to vegetated land cover types. Mean humidity has increased and mean wind speed and cloud cover have decreased during the nighthawk breeding season from 1948 to 2016 in southeastern South Dakota. These changes might contribute to increasing operative temperatures at exposed rooftop nest sites and this could influence chick condition. We studied nest micro-climate and the plasma stress response for 24 rooftop-nesting nighthawk chicks from 17 nests during 2015 and 2016. High humidity prior to blood collection reduced both baseline and stress-induced plasma corticosterone (CORT). In contrast, high maximum temperatures during the day before sampling increased stress-induced CORT. The magnitude of the chick stress response was significantly negatively related to maximum wind speed for the week prior to CORT measurement. Other weather and micro-climate variables were not significant effectors of CORT metrics. Most chicks had low baseline CORT and were able to mount a stress response, but a subset of chicks ( n = 4) showed elevated baseline CORT and a negative association between the magnitude of stress response and ambient temperature. For this subset, mean ambient temperature for the day before sampling was significantly higher (2.3°C) than for chicks with typical baseline CORT levels. These data suggest that regional climate change trends could affect the ability of nighthawk chicks to mount a stress response, which, in turn, might influence the susceptibility of nighthawk chicks to climate change in the Northern Prairie region.

78 FR 66686 - Takes of Marine Mammals Incidental to Specified Activities; Seabird and Pinniped Research...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-06

... (other than commercial fishing) within a specified geographical region if: (1) We make certain findings..., but not limited to, migration, breathing, nursing, breeding, feeding, or sheltering [Level B... seabird colonies; observing seabird nesting habitat; restoring nesting burrows; observing breeding...

Predicting nest success from habitat features in aspen forests of the central Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Heather M. Struempf; Deborah M. Finch; Gregory Hayward; Stanley Anderson

2001-01-01

We collected nesting data on bird use of aspen stands in the Routt and Medicine Bow National Forests between 1987 and 1989. We found active nest sites of 28 species of small nongame birds on nine study plots in undisturbed aspen forests. We compared logistic regression models predicting nest success (at least one nestling) from nest-site or stand-level habitat...

Identifying pollination service hotspots and coldspots using citizen science data from the Great Sunflower Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LeBuhn, G.; Schmucki, R.

2016-12-01

Identifying the spatial patterns of pollinator visitation rates is key to identifying the drivers of differences in pollination service and the areas where pollinator conservation will provide the highest return on investment. However, gathering pollinator abundance data at the appropriate regional and national scales is untenable. As a surrogate, habitat models have been developed to identify areas of pollinator losses but these models have been developed using expert opinion based on foraging and nesting requirements. Thousands of citizen scientists across the United States participating in The Great Sunflower Project (www.GreatSunflower.org) contribute timed counts of pollinator visits to a focal sunflower variety planted in local gardens and green spaces. While these data provide a more direct measure of pollination service to a standardized plant and include a measure of effort, the data are complicated. Each location is sampled at different dates, times and frequencies as well as different points across the local flight season. To overcome this complication, we have used a generalized additive model to generate regional flight curves to calibrate each individual data point and to attain better estimates of pollination service at each site. Using these flight season corrected data, we identify hotspots and cold spots in pollinator service across the United States, evaluate the drivers shaping the spatial patterns and observe how these data align with the results obtained from predictive models that are based on expert knowledge on foraging and nesting habitats.

Downscaling, 2-way Nesting, and Data Assimilative Modeling in Coastal and Shelf Waters of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Maine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkin, J.; Levin, J.; Lopez, A.; Arango, H.

2016-02-01

Coastal ocean models that downscale output from basin and global scale models are widely used to study regional circulation at enhanced resolution and locally important ecosystem, biogeochemical, and geomorphologic processes. When operated as now-cast or forecast systems, these models offer predictions that assist decision-making for numerous maritime applications. We describe such a system for shelf waters of the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) and Gulf of Maine (GoM) where the MARACOOS and NERACOOS associations of U.S. IOOS operate coastal ocean observing systems that deliver a dense observation set using CODAR HF-radar, autonomous underwater glider vehicles (AUGV), telemetering moorings, and drifting buoys. Other U.S. national and global observing systems deliver further sustained observations from moorings, ships, profiling floats, and a constellation of satellites. Our MAB and GoM re-analysis and forecast system uses the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS; myroms.org) with 4-dimensional Variational (4D-Var) data assimilation to adjust initial conditions, boundary conditions, and surface forcing in each analysis cycle. Data routinely assimilated include CODAR velocities, altimeter satellite sea surface height (with coastal corrections), satellite temperature, in situ CTD data from AUGV and ships (NMFS Ecosystem Monitoring voyages), and all in situ data reported via the WMO GTS network. A climatological data assimilative analysis of hydrographic and long-term mean velocity observations specifies the regional Mean Dynamic Topography that augments altimeter sea level anomaly data and is also used to adjust boundary condition biases that would otherwise be introduced in the process of downscaling from global models. System performance is described with respect to the impact of satellite, CODAR and in situ observations on analysis skill. Results from a 2-way nested modeling system that adds enhanced resolution over the NSF OOI Pioneer Array in the central MAB are also shown.

Social Capital and Fear of Crime in Adolescence: A Multilevel Study.

PubMed

Vieno, Alessio; Lenzi, Michela; Roccato, Michele; Russo, Silvia; Monaci, Maria Grazia; Scacchi, Luca

2016-09-01

Hierarchical linear modeling was used to examine the relationships between social capital (at the individual, the neighborhood, and the regional levels) and adolescents' fear of crime, while controlling for the main individual (sociodemographics, television viewing, and bullying victimization), neighborhood (neighborhood size and aggregated victimization), and regional (crime rate and level of urbanization) variables. Data were analyzed using a three-level model based on 22,639 15.7-year-old (SD = 0.67) students nested within 1081 neighborhoods and 19 Italian regions. The findings revealed that individual and contextual measures of social capital, modeled at the individual, neighborhood, and regional levels simultaneously, showed negative associations with adolescents' fear of crime. Males and participants with higher family affluence were less likely to feel fear of crime, whereas victimization, both at the individual and neighborhood levels, had a positive association with fear of crime. Strengths, limitations, and potential applications of the study are discussed. © Society for Community Research and Action 2016.

A numerical study on flow and pollutant transport in Singapore coastal waters.

PubMed

Xu, Ming; Chua, Vivien P

2016-10-15

Intensive economic and shipping activities in Singapore Strait have caused Singapore coastal waters to be under high risk of water pollution. A nested three-dimensional unstructured-grid SUNTANS model is applied to Singapore coastal waters to simulate flow and pollutant transport. The small domain (~50m resolution) Singapore coastal model is nested within a large domain (~200m resolution) regional model. The nested model is able to predict water surface elevations and velocities with high R(2) values of 0.96 and 0.91, respectively. Model results delineate the characteristics of circulation pattern in Singapore coastal waters during the Northeast and Southwest monsoons. The pollutants are modeled as passive tracers, and are released at six key sailing locations Points 1-6 in Singapore coastal waters and are named as Passive Tracers 1-6, respectively. Our results show that the rate of dispersion is twice as large for the Northeast monsoon compared to the Southwest monsoon due to differences in large-scale monsoons and small-scale local winds. The volume averaged concentration (VAC) diminishes faster and the local flushing time is shorter during the Northeast monsoon than the Southwest monsoon. Dispersion coefficients K and the VAC decreasing rate are maximum for Tracers 2 and 3 with shortest local flushing time due to the strong surrounding currents and abrupt bathymetry changes near Senang and St. John Islands. Dispersion coefficients K and the VAC decreasing rate are minimum for Tracer 1 due to weak currents induced by the semi-enclosed coastline near Tuas. It is found that both the lateral dispersion coefficient Ky and the compound dispersion coefficient K obey a "4/3-law", which defines a linear correlation between dispersion coefficients and 4/3-power of selected length scale. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of the AOML Hurricane Research System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeh, K.; Gopalakrishnan, S.; Zhang, X.; Bao, J.; Quirino, T.; Sainani, V.; Rogers, R.; Aberson, S.; Marks, F.; Atlas, R.

2008-12-01

NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) has committed to the development of a modeling and data-assimilation system recently. This Hurricane Research System (HRS) aims to improve hurricane forecast by developing innovative modeling techniques, and by assimilating the hurricane inner-core data that is timely collected with aircrafts by the scientists at the AOML Hurricane Research Division (HRD), in addition to the data collected by other channels. We have started the development of the HRS by implementing a moving nest within a regional domain on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). The dynamically moving nest is used to track the hurricane with an enhanced resolution to better simulate the hurricane structure with more accurate dynamical and physical processes. Combining with the diagnostic expertise at the HRD, and benefiting from the community efforts, we have quickly composed the HRS with excellent ingredients from various organizations. This baseline system has been in experimental operation for this hurricane season, and early result with these experiments seems quite promising. We have also developed a new visualization tool and an efficient post-processor emphasizing diagnostic functionality to facilitate hurricane research. Further development of the HRS includes the implementation of a third, moving nest to advance the model resolution to 1 km or higher with the limited computing resource. Innovative model initialization techniques and versatile hurricane-diagnostic tools are undergoing development. An Ensemble Kalman Filter is being constructed for the HRS to assimilate observation data. Physical parameterizations are being refined to improve the forcing and heating mechanisms, and ocean model coupling is to be implemented for realistic air-sea interactions. We will report the status up to date.

Lesser prairie-chicken nest site selection, microclimate, and nest survival in association with vegetation response to a grassland restoration program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boal, Clint W.; Grisham, Blake A.; Haukos, David A.; Zavaleta, Jennifer C.; Dixon, Charles

2014-01-01

Climate models predict that the region of the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GPLCC) will experience increased maximum and minimum temperatures, reduced frequency but greater intensity of precipitation events, and earlier springs. These climate changes along with different landscape management techniques may influence the persistence of the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), a candidate for protection under the Endangered Species Act and a priority species under the GPLCC, in positive or negative ways. The objectives of this study were to conduct (1) a literature review of lesser prairie-chicken nesting phenology and ecology, (2) an analysis of thermal aspects of lesser prairie-chicken nest microclimate data, and (3) an analysis of nest site selection, nest survival, and vegetation response to 10 years of tebuthiuron and/or grazing treatments. We found few reports in the literature containing useful data on the nesting phenology of lesser prairie-chickens; therefore, managers must rely on short-term observations and measurements of parameters that provide some predictive insight into climate impacts on nesting ecology. Our field studies showed that prairie-chickens on nests were able to maintain relatively consistent average nest temperature of 31 °C and nest humidities of 56.8 percent whereas average external temperatures (20.3–35.0 °C) and humidities (35.2–74.9 percent) varied widely throughout the 24 hour (hr) cycle. Grazing and herbicide treatments within our experimental areas were designed to be less intensive than in common practice. We determined nest locations by radio-tagging hen lesser prairie-chickens captured at leks, which are display grounds at which male lesser prairie-chickens aggregate and attempt to attract a female for mating. Because nest locations selected by hen lesser prairie-chicken are strongly associated with the lek at which they were captured, we assessed nesting habitat use on the basis of hens captured at individual leks, and then for all leks pooled. There was no clear pattern of selection for treatment type for nest placement among hens associated with individual leks; however, when hens from all leks were pooled, we found nesting lesser prairie-chickens selected control plots for nesting over plots that were grazed, treated with tebuthiuron, or were both grazed and treated with tebuthiuron. Overall, the probability of a nest surviving the incubation period was 0.57 for this study and did not vary significantly among treatment types. In contrast to nesting preference for untreated habitats, lek use exhibited no noticeable selection of treatment type. Over the 10 years of the habitat management study, there was 91 percent less sand shinnery oak (Quercus havardii) in treated areas than untreated areas. The removal of sand shinnery oak made environmental soil moisture more available for grasses and forbs to germinate and grow. Grasses increased by 149 percent and forbs increased by 257 percent in treated areas as compared to untreated areas throughout the study period. Our combined results, including our habitat selection analysis at the individual lek level, indicated that reduced rates of herbicide and short-duration grazing treatments were not detrimental to nesting lesser prairie-chickens and that populations of lesser prairie-chickens in shrub-dominated ecosystems may benefit from reduced rates of herbicide application and short duration of grazing that results in increased habitat heterogeneity.

Prediction of future climate change for the Blue Nile, using RCM nested in GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayed, E.; Jeuland, M.; Aty, M.

2009-04-01

Although the Nile River Basin is rich in natural resources, it faces many challenges. Rainfall is highly variable across the region, on both seasonal and inter-annual scales. This variability makes the region vulnerable to droughts and floods. Many development projects involving Nile waters are currently underway, or being studied. These projects will lead to land-use patterns changes and water distribution and availability. It is thus important to assess the effects of a) these projects and b) evolving water resource management and policies, on regional hydrological processes. This paper seeks to establish a basis for evaluation of such impacts within the Blue Nile River sub-basin, using the RegCM3 Regional Climate Model to simulate interactions between the land surface and climatic processes. We first present results from application of this RCM model nested with downscaled outputs obtained from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 transient simulations for the 20th Century. We then investigate changes associated with mid-21st century emissions forcing of the SRES A1B scenario. The results obtained from the climate model are then fed as inputs to the Nile Forecast System (NFS), a hydrologic distributed rainfall runoff model of the Nile Basin, The interaction between climatic and hydrological processes on the land surface has been fully coupled. Rainfall patterns and evaporation rates have been generated using RegCM3, and the resulting runoff and Blue Nile streamflow patterns have been simulated using the NFS. This paper compares the results obtained from the RegCM3 climate model with observational datasets for precipitation and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (UK) and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center GPCP (USA) for 1985-2000. The validity of the streamflow predictions from the NFS is assessed using historical gauge records. Finally, we present results from modeling of the A1B emissions scenario of the IPCC for the years 2034-2055. Our results indicate that future changes in rainfall may vary over different areas of the Upper Blue Nile catchment in Ethiopia. Our results suggest that there may be good reasons for developing climate models with finer spatial resolution than the more commonly used GCMs.

The Errors Sources Affect to the Results of One-Way Nested Ocean Regional Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, S. V.

2016-02-01

Pham-Van Sy1, Jin Hwan Hwang2 and Hyeyun Ku3 Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University, KoreaEmail: 1phamsymt@gmail.com (Corresponding author) Email: 2jinhwang@snu.ac.krEmail: 3hyeyun.ku@gmail.comAbstractThe Oceanic Regional Circulation Model (ORCM) is an essential tool in resolving highly a regional scale through downscaling dynamically the results from the roughly revolved global model. However, when dynamic downscaling from a coarse resolution of the global model or observations to the small scale, errors are generated due to the different sizes of resolution and lateral updating frequency. This research evaluated the effect of four main sources on the results of the ocean regional circulation model (ORCMs) during downscaling and nesting the output data from the ocean global circulation model (OGCMs). Representative four error sources should be the way of the LBC formulation, the spatial resolution difference between driving and driven data, the frequency for up-dating LBCs and domain size. Errors which are contributed from each error source to the results of the ORCMs are investigated separately by applying the Big-Brother Experiment (BBE). Within resolution of 3km grid point of the ORCMs imposing in the BBE framework, it clearly exposes that the simulation results of the ORCMs significantly depend on the domain size and specially the spatial and temporal resolution of lateral boundary conditions (LBCs). The ratio resolution of spatial resolution between driving data and driven model could be up to 3, the updating frequency of the LBCs can be up to every 6 hours per day. The optimal domain size of the ORCMs could be smaller than the OGCMs' domain size around 2 to 10 times. Key words: ORCMs, error source, lateral boundary conditions, domain size Acknowledgement: This research was supported by grants from the Korean Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries entitled as "Developing total management system for the Keum river estuary and coast" and "Development of Technology for CO2 Marine Geological Storage". We also thank to the administrative supports of the Integrated Research Institute of Construction and Environmental Engineering of the Seoul National University.

Daily survival rates for nests of Black Skimmers from a core breeding area of the Southeastern USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brooks, Gillian L.; Sanders, Felicia J.; Gerard, Patrick D.; Jodice, Patrick G.R.

2014-01-01

Little is known about the reproductive success of Black Skimmers (Rynchops niger) throughout the southeastern USA where availability of undisturbed beaches for nesting is limited. Daily survival rates (DSR) of nests were examined at three nesting sites in Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge (CRNWR), South Carolina, USA, 2009–2010. The percent of successful nests (n  =  346 nests) ranged from 42–69% among colony sites when data were pooled across both years. The DSR of nests was primarily related to colony site, predation risk, height of high tide, and clutch size. Predation and overwash were the principal causes of identifiable nest loss, each accounting for ∼33% of nest failures during the two study years. Because of the challenges of resighting skimmer chicks, we were not able to measure chick survival effectively and therefore accurate measures of productivity remain elusive. High variability in nest success among sites within close proximity to each other (<20 km) suggests factors at local scales such as disturbance, predation, and overwash events strongly influenced nest success of Black Skimmers during these 2 years as opposed to more region-wide stressors such as tropical storms or food availability. Although time-intensive techniques to control predators do exist, management options to limit flooding and overwash are far more limited. Conservation of Black Skimmers in the southeastern USA would benefit from coordinated, multi-state efforts to measure nest and chick survival.

Discovering Event Structure in Continuous Narrative Perception and Memory.

PubMed

Baldassano, Christopher; Chen, Janice; Zadbood, Asieh; Pillow, Jonathan W; Hasson, Uri; Norman, Kenneth A

2017-08-02

During realistic, continuous perception, humans automatically segment experiences into discrete events. Using a novel model of cortical event dynamics, we investigate how cortical structures generate event representations during narrative perception and how these events are stored to and retrieved from memory. Our data-driven approach allows us to detect event boundaries as shifts between stable patterns of brain activity without relying on stimulus annotations and reveals a nested hierarchy from short events in sensory regions to long events in high-order areas (including angular gyrus and posterior medial cortex), which represent abstract, multimodal situation models. High-order event boundaries are coupled to increases in hippocampal activity, which predict pattern reinstatement during later free recall. These areas also show evidence of anticipatory reinstatement as subjects listen to a familiar narrative. Based on these results, we propose that brain activity is naturally structured into nested events, which form the basis of long-term memory representations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of future climate change for the Blue Nile, using a nested Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soliman, E.; Jeuland, M.

2009-04-01

Although the Nile River Basin is rich in natural resources, it faces many challenges. Rainfall is highly variable across the region, on both seasonal and inter-annual scales. This variability makes the region vulnerable to droughts and floods. Many development projects involving Nile waters are currently underway, or being studied. These projects will lead to land-use patterns changes and water distribution and availability. It is thus important to assess the effects of a) these projects and b) evolving water resource management and policies, on regional hydrological processes. This paper seeks to establish a basis for evaluation of such impacts within the Blue Nile River sub-basin, using the RegCM3 Regional Climate Model to simulate interactions between the land surface and climatic processes. We first present results from application of this RCM model nested with downscaled outputs obtained from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 transient simulations for the 20th Century. We then investigate changes associated with mid-21st century emissions forcing of the SRES A1B scenario. The results obtained from the climate model are then fed as inputs to the Nile Forecast System (NFS), a hydrologic distributed rainfall runoff model of the Nile Basin, The interaction between climatic and hydrological processes on the land surface has been fully coupled. Rainfall patterns and evaporation rates have been generated using RegCM3, and the resulting runoff and Blue Nile streamflow patterns have been simulated using the NFS. This paper compares the results obtained from the RegCM3 climate model with observational datasets for precipitation and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (UK) and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center GPCP (USA) for 1985-2000. The validity of the streamflow predictions from the NFS is assessed using historical gauge records. Finally, we present results from modeling of the A1B emissions scenario of the IPCC for the years 2034-2055. Our results indicate that future changes in rainfall may vary over different areas of the Upper Blue Nile catchment in Ethiopia. Our results suggest that there may be good reasons for developing climate models with finer spatial resolution than the more commonly used GCMs.

Soil attributes drive nest-site selection by the campo miner Geositta poeciloptera.

PubMed

Meireles, Ricardo Camargos de; Teixeira, João Paulo Gusmão; Solar, Ricardo; Vasconcelos, Bruno Nery F; Fernandes, Raphael B A; Lopes, Leonardo Esteves

2018-01-01

Substrate type is a key-factor in nest-site selection and nest architecture of burrowing birds. However, little is known about which factors drive nest-site selection for these species, especially in the tropics. We studied the influence of soil attributes on nest-site selection by the campo miner Geositta poeciloptera, an open grassland bird that builds its nests within soil cavities. For all nests found, we measured the depth of the nest cavity and the resistance of the soil to penetration, and identified the soil horizon in which the nest was located. In soil banks with nests, we collected soil samples for granulometric analysis around each nest cavity, while in soil banks without nests we collected these samples at random points. From 43 nests found, 86% were located in the deeper soil horizons (C-horizon), and only 14% in the shallower horizons (B-horizon). Granulometric analysis showed that the C-horizons possessed a high similar granulometric composition, with high silt and low clay contents. These characteristics are associated with a low degree of structural development of the soil, which makes it easier to excavate. Contrarily, soil resistance to penetration does not seem to be an important criterion for nest site selection, although nests in more resistant the soils tend to have shallower nest cavities. Among the soil banks analyzed, 40% of those without cavities possessed a larger proportion of B-horizon relative to the C-horizon, and their texture was more clayey. On the other hand, almost all soil banks containing nest cavities had a larger C-horizon and a silty texture, indicating that soil attributes drive nest-site selection by G. poeciloptera. Thus, we conclude that the patchy distribution of G. poeciloptera can attributed to the infrequent natural exposure of the C-horizon in the tropical region, where well developed, deep and permeable soils are more common.

Soil attributes drive nest-site selection by the campo miner Geositta poeciloptera

PubMed Central

Teixeira, João Paulo Gusmão; Solar, Ricardo; Vasconcelos, Bruno Nery F.; Fernandes, Raphael B. A.; Lopes, Leonardo Esteves

2018-01-01

Substrate type is a key-factor in nest-site selection and nest architecture of burrowing birds. However, little is known about which factors drive nest-site selection for these species, especially in the tropics. We studied the influence of soil attributes on nest-site selection by the campo miner Geositta poeciloptera, an open grassland bird that builds its nests within soil cavities. For all nests found, we measured the depth of the nest cavity and the resistance of the soil to penetration, and identified the soil horizon in which the nest was located. In soil banks with nests, we collected soil samples for granulometric analysis around each nest cavity, while in soil banks without nests we collected these samples at random points. From 43 nests found, 86% were located in the deeper soil horizons (C-horizon), and only 14% in the shallower horizons (B-horizon). Granulometric analysis showed that the C-horizons possessed a high similar granulometric composition, with high silt and low clay contents. These characteristics are associated with a low degree of structural development of the soil, which makes it easier to excavate. Contrarily, soil resistance to penetration does not seem to be an important criterion for nest site selection, although nests in more resistant the soils tend to have shallower nest cavities. Among the soil banks analyzed, 40% of those without cavities possessed a larger proportion of B-horizon relative to the C-horizon, and their texture was more clayey. On the other hand, almost all soil banks containing nest cavities had a larger C-horizon and a silty texture, indicating that soil attributes drive nest-site selection by G. poeciloptera. Thus, we conclude that the patchy distribution of G. poeciloptera can attributed to the infrequent natural exposure of the C-horizon in the tropical region, where well developed, deep and permeable soils are more common. PMID:29381768

Spring migration of mallards from Arkansas as determined by satellite telemetry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krementz, David G.; Asante, Kwasi; Naylor, L.M.

2011-01-01

We used satellite telemetry to document spring migration phenology, routes, stopover regions, and nesting sites of mallards Anas platyrhynchos marked in Arkansas during the winters of 2004-2007. Of the 143 marked mallards that migrated from Arkansas, they did so, on average, by mid-March. Mallards flew over the Missouri Ozarks and 42% made an initial stopover in Missouri, where they used areas that had larger rivers (Mississippi River, Missouri River) embedded in an agricultural landscape. From this stopover region they either migrated directly to the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) or they migrated north to Minnesota where they either moved next to the PPR or to the north and east of the PPR. For those mallards (83%) that stopped for >1 d before entering the PPR, the average length at each stop was 12 d (SE = 0.90 d, range = 2-54 d). Mallards made more stopovers, made shorter migration movements, and took longer to move to the PPR in wetter than drier years. Mallards arrived in the PPR earlier in 2006 x- = 30 March, SE = 2.18 d) than in 2005 x- = 7 April, SE = 2.30 d). Females nested across nine Bird Conservation Regions. Nesting occurred most frequently in South Dakota (n = 9). The average date when females nested was 19 April (SE = 2.44 d, range = 12 March-26 May). Because many mallards headed for the large river corridors in Missouri for their first stopover, this region is an important spring migration stopover of continental importance to mallards and might be considered a focal area for conservation.

Identifying three-dimensional nested groundwater flow systems in a Tóthian basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xu-Sheng; Wan, Li; Jiang, Xiao-Wei; Li, Hailong; Zhou, Yangxiao; Wang, Junzhi; Ji, Xiaohui

2017-10-01

Nested groundwater flow systems have been revealed in Tóth's theory as the structural property of basin-scale groundwater circulation but were only well known with two-dimensional (2D) profile models. The method of searching special streamlines across stagnation points for partitioning flow systems, which has been successfully applied in the 2D models, has never been implemented for three-dimensional (3D) Tóthian basins because of the difficulty in solving the dual stream functions. Alternatively, a new method is developed to investigate 3D nested groundwater flow systems without determination of stagnation points. Connective indices are defined to quantify the connection between individual recharge and discharge zones along streamlines. Groundwater circulation cells (GWCCs) are identified according to the distribution of the connective indices and then grouped into local, intermediate and regional flow systems. This method requires existing solution of the flow velocity vector and is implemented via particle tracking technique. It is applied in a hypothetical 3D Tóthian basin with an analytical solution of the flow field and in a real-world basin with a numerical modeling approach. Different spatial patterns of flow systems compared to 2D profile models are found. The outcrops boundaries of GWCCs on water table may significantly deviate from and are not parallel to the nearby water table divides. Topological network is proposed to represent the linked recharge-discharge zones through closed and open GWCCs. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the development of GWCCs depends on the basin geometry, hydraulic parameters and water table shape.

Nest sanitation elicits egg discrimination in cuckoo hosts.

PubMed

Yang, Canchao; Chen, Min; Wang, Longwu; Liang, Wei; Møller, Anders Pape

2015-11-01

Nest sanitation is a nearly universal behavior in birds, while egg discrimination is a more specific adaptation that has evolved to counter brood parasitism. These two behaviors are closely related with nest sanitation being the ancestral behavior, and it has been hypothesized to constitute a preadaptation for egg discrimination. However, previous studies found little evidence to support this hypothesis. Here, we conducted an empirical test of the association between nest sanitation and egg discrimination in the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica) by inserting a single non-mimetic model egg or a non-mimetic model egg plus half a peanut shell into host nests. Compared to the rejection rate of single model eggs, barn swallows significantly increased egg rejection frequency if a half peanut shell was simultaneously introduced. Our result for the first time shows the impact of nest sanitation on egg discrimination and demonstrates that nest sanitation can elicit egg discrimination in hosts of brood parasites. This study provided evidence for nest sanitation being a preadaptation to egg discrimination by facilitating egg rejection, thereby significantly advancing our understanding of avian cognition of foreign objects. Furthermore, we suggest that egg discrimination behavior in many accepters and intermediate rejecters may be lost or diluted. Such egg discrimination can be elicited and restored after nest sanitation, implying a sensitive and rapid phenotypic response to increased risk of parasitism. Our study offers a novel perspective for investigating the role of so-called intermediate rejecter individuals or species in the long-term coevolutionary cycle between brood parasites and their hosts.

Nest survival is influenced by parental behaviour and heterospecifics in a mixed-species colony

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brussee, Brianne E.; Coates, Peter S.; Hothem, Roger L.; Howe, Kristy; Casazza, Michael L.; Eadie, John M.

2016-01-01

Studies of avian nest success often focus on examining influences of variation in environmental and seasonal factors. However, in-depth evaluations can also incorporate variation in individual incubation behaviour to further advance our understanding of avian reproductive ecology. We examined these relationships in colonially nesting Black-crowned Night-Herons Nycticorax nycticorax using intensive video-monitoring methods to quantify incubation behaviours. We modelled nest survival as a function of both extrinsic factors and incubation behaviours over a 3-year period (2010–12) on Alcatraz Island, USA. Model-averaged parameter estimates indicated that nest survival increased as a function of greater incubation constancy (% of time spent incubating eggs within a 24-h period), and average daily precipitation throughout the nesting stage. Common Ravens Corvus corax are the only known nest predator of Night-Herons on Alcatraz Island, as on many other coastal Pacific islands. We also investigated the effects of heterospecific nesting of California Gulls Larus californicus and Western Gulls Larus occidentalis in a mixed-species colony with Night-Herons, based on nesting proximity data collected over a 2-year period (2011–12). This second analysis indicated that, in addition to incubation behaviours, nesting heterospecifics are an important factor for explaining variation in Night-Heron nest survival. However, contrary to our original expectation, we found that Night-Herons experienced increased nest survival with increasing distance from gull colony boundaries. These results may apply to other areas with multiple colonial nesting species and similar predator communities and climatic patterns.

Intercomparison of microphysical datasets collected from CAIPEEX observations and WRF simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattnaik, S.; Goswami, B.; Kulkarni, J.

2009-12-01

In the first phase of ongoing Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX) program of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), intensive cloud microphysical datasets are collected over India during the May through September, 2009. This study is designed to evaluate the forecast skills of existing cloud microphysical parameterization schemes (i.e. single moment/double moments) within the WRF-ARW model (Version 3.1.1) during different intensive observation periods (IOP) over the targeted regions spreading all across India. Basic meteorological and cloud microphysical parameters obtained from the model simulations are validated against the observed data set collected during CAIPEEX program. For this study, we have considered three IOP phases (i.e. May 23-27, June 11-15, July 3-7) carried out over northern, central and western India respectively. This study emphasizes the thrust to understand the mechanism of evolution, intensification and distribution of simulated precipitation forecast upto day four (i.e. 96 hour forecast). Efforts have also been made to carryout few important microphysics sensitivity experiments within the explicit schemes to investigate their respective impact on the formation and distribution of vital cloud parameters (e.g. cloud liquid water, frozen hydrometeors) and model rainfall forecast over the IOP regions. The characteristic features of liquid and frozen hydrometers in the pre-monsoon and monsoon regimes are examined from model forecast as well as from CAIPEEX observation data set for different IOPs. The model is integrated in a triply nested fashion with an innermost nest explicitly resolved at a horizontal resolution of 4km.In this presentation preliminary results from aforementioned research initiatives will be introduced.

Morning Nest Arrivals in Cowbird Hosts: their Role in Aggression, Cowbird Recognition, and Host Response to Parasitism

Treesearch

Dirk E. Burhans

2000-01-01

Indigo Buntings (Passerina cyanea) nesting in old-field habitats in central Missouri are parasitized at least four times as often as Field Sparrows. I used model cowbirds placed near nests to test if host aggression explained this difference. Although both Field Sparrows and Indigo Buntings responded to Brown-headed Cowbird models with significantly...

Construction of nested maximin designs based on successive local enumeration and modified novel global harmony search algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Jin; Li, Xinyu; Xiao, Mi; Xu, Junnan; Zhang, Lin

2017-01-01

Engineering design often involves different types of simulation, which results in expensive computational costs. Variable fidelity approximation-based design optimization approaches can realize effective simulation and efficiency optimization of the design space using approximation models with different levels of fidelity and have been widely used in different fields. As the foundations of variable fidelity approximation models, the selection of sample points of variable-fidelity approximation, called nested designs, is essential. In this article a novel nested maximin Latin hypercube design is constructed based on successive local enumeration and a modified novel global harmony search algorithm. In the proposed nested designs, successive local enumeration is employed to select sample points for a low-fidelity model, whereas the modified novel global harmony search algorithm is employed to select sample points for a high-fidelity model. A comparative study with multiple criteria and an engineering application are employed to verify the efficiency of the proposed nested designs approach.

Mesoscale Air-Sea Interactions along the Gulf Stream: An Eddy-Resolving and Convection-Permitting Coupled Regional Climate Model Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsieh, J. S.; Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.

2017-12-01

Frontal and mesoscale air-sea interactions along the Gulf Stream (GS) during boreal winter are investigated using an eddy-resolving and convection-permitting coupled regional climate model with atmospheric grid resolutions varying from meso-β (27-km) to -r (9-km and 3-km nest) scales in WRF and a 9-km ocean model (ROMS) that explicitly resolves the ocean mesoscale eddies across the North Atlantic basin. The mesoscale wavenumber energy spectra for the simulated surface wind stress and SST demonstrate good agreement with the observed spectra calculated from the observational QuikSCAT and AMSR-E datasets, suggesting that the model well captures the energy cascade of the mesoscale eddies in both the atmosphere and the ocean. Intercomparison among different resolution simulations indicates that after three months of integration the simulated GS path tends to overshoot beyond the separation point in the 27-km WRF coupled experiments than the observed climatological path of the GS, whereas the 3-km nested and 9-km WRF coupled simulations realistically simulate GS separation. The GS overshoot in 27-km WRF coupled simulations is accompanied with a significant SST warming bias to the north of the GS extension. Such biases are associated with the deficiency of wind stress-SST coupling strengths simulated by the coupled model with a coarser resolution in WRF. It is found that the model at 27-km grid spacing can approximately simulate 72% (62%) of the observed mean coupling strength between surface wind stress curl (divergence) and crosswind (downwind) SST gradient while by increasing the WRF resolutions to 9 km or 3 km the coupled model can much better capture the observed coupling strengths.

Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) Flexibly Use Introduced Species for Nesting and Bark Feeding in a Human-Dominated Habitat.

PubMed

McCarthy, Maureen S; Lester, Jack D; Stanford, Craig B

2017-01-01

As habitat loss and fragmentation place growing pressure on endangered nonhuman primate populations, researchers find increasing evidence for novel responses in behavior. In western Uganda between the Budongo and Bugoma Forests, chimpanzees ( Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii ) inhabit a mosaic landscape comprising forest fragments, human settlements, and agricultural land. We recorded nests and feeding evidence of unhabituated chimpanzees in this region over a 12-mo period. We found extensive evidence of nesting in introduced tree species, including eucalyptus ( Eucalyptus grandis ), guava ( Psidium guajava ), cocoa ( Theobroma cacao ), and Caribbean pine ( Pinus caribaea ). In addition, we found instances of ground nesting, nest reuse, and composite nests constructed from branches of multiple trees. This evidence may indicate a lack of suitable nesting trees or attempts by chimpanzees to nest in areas of riparian forest that allow them to avoid human detection. We also found new evidence for eucalyptus bark feeding by chimpanzees. Such evidence suggests chimpanzees respond flexibly to mitigate anthropogenic pressures in human-dominated landscapes. The limits of such flexibility remain unknown. Further research is needed to examine systematically the factors influencing the use of such resources and to understand better the extent to which chimpanzees can persist while relying on them.

Importance of individual species of predators on nesting success of ducks in the Canadian prairie pothole region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Douglas H.; Sargeant, Alan B.; Greenwood, Raymond J.

1989-01-01

We followed 3094 upland nests of several species of ducks. Clutches in most nests were lost to predation. We related daily nest predation rates to indices of activity of eight egg-eating predators, precipitation during the nesting season, and measures of wetland conditions. Activity indices of red fox (Vulpes vulpes), striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis), and raccoon (Procyon lotor) activity were positively correlated, as were activity indices of coyote (Canis latrans), Franklin's ground squirrel (Spermophilus franklinii), and black-billed magpie (Pica pica). Indices of fox and coyote activity were strongly negatively correlated (r = -0.51), as were those of badger (Taxidea taxus) and skunk (r = -0.46). Nest predation rates in the early part of the breeding season were positively related to indices of fox, American crow (Corvus brachyrhynchos), and badger activity. Predation rates in the latter part of the season were positively related to indices of fox and skunk activity. Predation rates on early-season nests were lower in areas and years in which larger fractions of seasonal wetlands contained water. For late-season nests, a similar relationship held involving semipermanent wetlands. We suspect that the wetland measures, which reflect precipitation during some previous period, also indicate vegetation growth and the abundance of buffer prey, factors that may influence nest predation rates.

A survey of nested grid techniques and their potential for use within the MASS weather prediction model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koch, Steven E.; Mcqueen, Jeffery T.

1987-01-01

A survey of various one- and two-way interactive nested grid techniques used in hydrostatic numerical weather prediction models is presented and the advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed. The techniques for specifying the lateral boundary conditions for each nested grid scheme are described in detail. Averaging and interpolation techniques used when applying the coarse mesh grid (CMG) and fine mesh grid (FMG) interface conditions during two-way nesting are discussed separately. The survey shows that errors are commonly generated at the boundary between the CMG and FMG due to boundary formulation or specification discrepancies. Methods used to control this noise include application of smoothers, enhanced diffusion, or damping-type time integration schemes to model variables. The results from this survey provide the information needed to decide which one-way and two-way nested grid schemes merit future testing with the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) model. An analytically specified baroclinic wave will be used to conduct systematic tests of the chosen schemes since this will allow for objective determination of the interfacial noise in the kind of meteorological setting for which MASS is designed. Sample diagnostic plots from initial tests using the analytic wave are presented to illustrate how the model-generated noise is ascertained. These plots will be used to compare the accuracy of the various nesting schemes when incorporated into the MASS model.

Development of a species-diagnostic marker and its application for population genetics studies of the stingless bee Trigona collina in Thailand.

PubMed

Theeraapisakkun, M; Klinbunga, S; Sittipraneed, S

2010-05-18

A molecular maker for authenticating species origin of the stingless bee (Trigona collina) was developed. Initially, amplified fragment length polymorphism analysis was made of 11 stingless bee species using 64 primer combinations. A 316-bp band found only in T. collina was cloned and sequenced. A primer pair (CUTc1-F/R) was designed and tested for species-specificity in 15 stingless bee species (239 nests). The expected 259-bp fragment was consistently amplified in all T. collina individuals (134/134 nests, 100%). Cross-species amplification was observed in T. pagdeni (43/51 nests; 84.3%), but not in other species. SSCP analysis of CUTc1 unambiguously differentiated T. collina from T. pagdeni. CUTc1 generated three genotypes in Thai T. collina (134 nests). An AA (259/259 bp) genotype was found in all stingless bees from the north (21 nests) and northeast (32 nests), and 23/28 nests from the Central region, whereas a BB (253/253 bp) genotype was observed in most samples from peninsular Thailand (42/53 nests). Heterozygotes exhibiting the AB (253/259 bp) genotype were observed in 5 of 28 nests from Prachuap Khiri Khan located slightly above the Kra ecotone and 11 of 53 nests originated further south of the Kra ecotone. Genotype distribution patterns of CUTc1 clearly indicated intraspecific population differentiation of Thai T. collina.

Status and nesting of Ferruginous Hawks (Buteo regalis) in Washington

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fitzner, R.E.; Boyd, L.L.; Berry, D.

1975-01-01

Nesting of ferruginous hawks in Washington is confined to the shrubsteppe region in the eastern part of the state. The birds nest in two entirely different situations, either on outcroppings of basalt on the slopes of hillsides and canyons, or on the canopy of Juniper trees. Nests dimensions and materials are described. A nearly complete survey of all available nesting habitat in the state revealed that no fewer than 15 and perhaps 20 pair of adult birds breed in the state. Of these, we expect that 12 or 13 pairs will produce young each year. Dietary analysis revealed that smallmore » mammals (pocket gophers and ground squirrels) were the most frequently consumed prey items. Small birds, primarily meadowlarks, were frequently consumed prey by both ground and tree nesters. Insects and lagomorphs were fairly abundant as prey items at a ground nest, while snakes (yellow-bellied racer and bullsnake) seemed to replace them in importance at a Juniper nesting site. Dark phase ferruginous hawks are reported for the first time in Washington State.« less

Predation as a landscape effect: the trading off by prey species between predation risks and protection benefits.

PubMed

Mönkkönen, M; Husby, M; Tornberg, R; Helle, P; Thomson, R L

2007-05-01

1. Predators impose costs on their prey but may also provide benefits such as protection against other (e.g. nest) predators. The optimal breeding location in relation to the distance from a nesting raptor varies so as to minimize the sum of costs of adult and nest predation. We provide a conceptual model to account for variation in the relative predation risks and derive qualitative predictions for how different prey species should respond to the distance from goshawk Accipiter gentilis nests. 2. We test the model predictions using a comprehensive collection of data from northern Finland and central Norway. First, we carried out a series of experiments with artificial bird nests to test if goshawks may provide protection against nest predation. Second, we conducted standard bird censuses and nest-box experiments to detect how the density or territory occupancy of several prey species varies with distance from the nearest goshawk nest. 3. Nest predation rate increased with distance from goshawk nest indicating that goshawks may provide protection for birds' nests against nest predation. Abundance (or probability of presence) of the main prey species of goshawks peaked at intermediate distances from goshawk nests, reflecting the trade-off. The abundance of small songbird species decreased with distance from goshawk nests. The goshawk poses little risk to small songbirds and they may benefit from goshawk proximity in protection against nest predation. Finally, no pattern with distance in pied flycatcher territory (nest box) occupation rate or the onset of egg-laying was detected. This is expected, as flycatchers neither suffer from marked nest predation risk nor are favoured goshawk prey. 4. Our results suggest that territory location in relation to the nest of a predator is a trade-off situation where adult birds weigh the risk of themselves being predated against the benefits accrued from increased nest survival. Prey species appear able to detect and measure alternative predation risks, and respond adaptively. From the prey perspective, the landscape is a mosaic of habitat patches the quality of which varies according to structural and floristic features, but also to the spatial distribution of predators.

Nested subcritical flows within supercritical systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hendricks, R. C.; Braun, M. J.; Wheeler, R. L., III; Mullen, R. L.

1985-01-01

In supercritical systems the design inlet and outlet pressures are maintained above the thermaodynamic critical pressure P sub C. Designers rely on this simple rule of thumb to circumvent problems associated with a subcritical pressure regime nested within the supercritical pressure system along with the uncertainties in heat transfer, fluid mechanics, and thermophysical property variations. The simple rule of thumb is adequate in many low-power designs but is inadequate for high-performance turbomachines and linear systems, where nested two-phase regions can exist. Examples for a free-jet expansion with backpressure greater than P sub C and a rotor (bearing) with ambient pressure greater than P sub C illustrate the existence of subcritical pressure regimes nested within supercritical systems.

Bridging the scales in a eulerian air quality model to assess megacity export of pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siour, G.; Colette, A.; Menut, L.; Bessagnet, B.; Coll, I.; Meleux, F.

2013-08-01

In Chemistry Transport Models (CTMs), spatial scale interactions are often represented through off-line coupling between large and small scale models. However, those nested configurations cannot give account of the impact of the local scale on its surroundings. This issue can be critical in areas exposed to air mass recirculation (sea breeze cells) or around regions with sharp pollutant emission gradients (large cities). Such phenomena can still be captured by the mean of adaptive gridding, two-way nesting or using model nudging, but these approaches remain relatively costly. We present here the development and the results of a simple alternative multi-scale approach making use of a horizontal stretched grid, in the Eulerian CTM CHIMERE. This method, called "stretching" or "zooming", consists in the introduction of local zooms in a single chemistry-transport simulation. It allows bridging online the spatial scales from the city (∼1 km resolution) to the continental area (∼50 km resolution). The CHIMERE model was run over a continental European domain, zoomed over the BeNeLux (Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg) area. We demonstrate that, compared with one-way nesting, the zooming method allows the expression of a significant feedback of the refined domain towards the large scale: around the city cluster of BeNeLuX, NO2 and O3 scores are improved. NO2 variability around BeNeLux is also better accounted for, and the net primary pollutant flux transported back towards BeNeLux is reduced. Although the results could not be validated for ozone over BeNeLux, we show that the zooming approach provides a simple and immediate way to better represent scale interactions within a CTM, and constitutes a useful tool for apprehending the hot topic of megacities within their continental environment.

Effects of vegetation, corridor width and regional land use on early successional birds on powerline corridors.

PubMed

Askins, Robert A; Folsom-O'Keefe, Corrine M; Hardy, Margaret C

2012-01-01

Powerline rights-of-way (ROWs) often provide habitat for early successional bird species that have suffered long-term population declines in eastern North America. To determine how the abundance of shrubland birds varies with habitat within ROW corridors and with land use patterns surrounding corridors, we ran Poisson regression models on data from 93 plots on ROWs and compared regression coefficients. We also determined nest success rates on a 1-km stretch of ROW. Seven species of shrubland birds were common in powerline corridors. However, the nest success rates for prairie warbler (Dendroica discolor) and field sparrow (Spizella pusilla) were <21%, which is too low to compensate for estimated annual mortality. Some shrubland bird species were more abundant on narrower ROWs or at sites with lower vegetation or particular types of vegetation, indicating that vegetation management could be refined to favor species of high conservation priority. Also, several species were more abundant in ROWs traversing unfragmented forest than those near residential areas or farmland, indicating that corridors in heavily forested regions may provide better habitat for these species. In the area where we monitored nests, brood parasitism by brown-headed cowbirds (Molothrus ater) occurred more frequently close to a residential area. Although ROWs support dense populations of shrubland birds, those in more heavily developed landscapes may constitute sink habitat. ROWs in extensive forests may contribute more to sustaining populations of early successional birds, and thus may be the best targets for habitat management.

Effects of Vegetation, Corridor Width and Regional Land Use on Early Successional Birds on Powerline Corridors

PubMed Central

Askins, Robert A.; Folsom-O'Keefe, Corrine M.; Hardy, Margaret C.

2012-01-01

Powerline rights-of-way (ROWs) often provide habitat for early successional bird species that have suffered long-term population declines in eastern North America. To determine how the abundance of shrubland birds varies with habitat within ROW corridors and with land use patterns surrounding corridors, we ran Poisson regression models on data from 93 plots on ROWs and compared regression coefficients. We also determined nest success rates on a 1-km stretch of ROW. Seven species of shrubland birds were common in powerline corridors. However, the nest success rates for prairie warbler (Dendroica discolor) and field sparrow (Spizella pusilla) were <21%, which is too low to compensate for estimated annual mortality. Some shrubland bird species were more abundant on narrower ROWs or at sites with lower vegetation or particular types of vegetation, indicating that vegetation management could be refined to favor species of high conservation priority. Also, several species were more abundant in ROWs traversing unfragmented forest than those near residential areas or farmland, indicating that corridors in heavily forested regions may provide better habitat for these species. In the area where we monitored nests, brood parasitism by brown-headed cowbirds (Molothrus ater) occurred more frequently close to a residential area. Although ROWs support dense populations of shrubland birds, those in more heavily developed landscapes may constitute sink habitat. ROWs in extensive forests may contribute more to sustaining populations of early successional birds, and thus may be the best targets for habitat management. PMID:22363660

Parasitism at the landscape scale: Cowbirds prefer forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hahn, D.C.; Hatfield, J.S.

1995-01-01

Landscape-scale examination of parasitism patterns of Brown-headed Cowbirds (Molothrus ater) revealed heterogeneous parasitism rates across the mosaic of a forest and associated oldfield communities. In a two-year study in Dutchess County, New York, we found a significantly higher parasitism rate in the forest-interior community (n = 301 nests; 17 species) than on the species in the adjacent and nearby old-field and edge (n = 328 nests; 15 species; 32.3% versus 6.5%; p lt 0.0001). Cowbirds invaded a mature 1300-ha forest stand even when their traditional host species were available in adjacent old-field and edge habitats. The forest and old field study areas were located in a 38,000-ha township with 55% forest cover and contained numerous agriculture, dairy, and horse farms that provided favorable habitat for cowbirds, within-forest examination of parasitism patterns revealed four aspects of cowbird parasitism that contrasted with patterns described in other regions; (1) parasitism was concentrated significantly more often on ground and low-nesting (nests ltoreq 1 m) forest species than on medium- and high nesting species (nests gt 1 m; 35. 01 % versus 2993%; p = 0.0393); (2) parasitism was not significantly greater on Neotropical migrant species than on short-distance migrants and residents; (3) the parasitism rate was not higher in nests close to edges; and (4) the parasitism level was low on certain forest species (such as Wood Thrush) that have experienced high parasitism levels in the Midwest. From a management perspective these data suggest that cowbirds exhibit regional differences in host and habitat use; the target host community of a particular cowbird population is unpredictable at the landscape scale; and a landscape scale should be used in designing cowbird studies to accurately assess local population dynamics.

Dynamic oceanography determines fine scale foraging behavior of Masked Boobies in the Gulf of Mexico

PubMed Central

Harrison, Autumn-Lynn; Vallarino, Adriana; Gerard, Patrick D.; Jodice, Patrick G. R.

2017-01-01

During breeding, foraging marine birds are under biological, geographic, and temporal constraints. These contraints require foraging birds to efficiently process environmental cues derived from physical habitat features that occur at nested spatial scales. Mesoscale oceanography in particular may change rapidly within and between breeding seasons, and findings from well-studied systems that relate oceanography to seabird foraging may transfer poorly to regions with substantially different oceanographic conditions. Our objective was to examine foraging behavior of a pan-tropical seabird, the Masked Booby (Sula dactylatra), in the understudied Caribbean province, a moderately productive region driven by highly dynamic currents and fronts. We tracked 135 individuals with GPS units during May 2013, November 2013, and December 2014 at a regionally important breeding colony in the southern Gulf of Mexico. We measured foraging behavior using characteristics of foraging trips and used area restricted search as a proxy for foraging events. Among individual attributes, nest stage contributed to differences in foraging behavior whereas sex did not. Birds searched for prey at nested hierarchical scales ranging from 200 m—35 km. Large-scale coastal and shelf-slope fronts shifted position between sampling periods and overlapped geographically with overall foraging locations. At small scales (at the prey patch level), the specific relationship between environmental variables and foraging behavior was highly variable among individuals but general patterns emerged. Sea surface height anomaly and velocity of water were the strongest predictors of area restricted search behavior in random forest models, a finding that is consistent with the characterization of the Gulf of Mexico as an energetic system strongly influenced by currents and eddies. Our data may be combined with tracking efforts in the Caribbean province and across tropical regions to advance understanding of seabird sensing of the environment and serve as a baseline for anthropogenic based threats such as development, pollution, and commercial fisheries. PMID:28575078

Dynamic oceanography determines fine scale foraging behavior of Masked Boobies in the Gulf of Mexico.

PubMed

Poli, Caroline L; Harrison, Autumn-Lynn; Vallarino, Adriana; Gerard, Patrick D; Jodice, Patrick G R

2017-01-01

During breeding, foraging marine birds are under biological, geographic, and temporal constraints. These contraints require foraging birds to efficiently process environmental cues derived from physical habitat features that occur at nested spatial scales. Mesoscale oceanography in particular may change rapidly within and between breeding seasons, and findings from well-studied systems that relate oceanography to seabird foraging may transfer poorly to regions with substantially different oceanographic conditions. Our objective was to examine foraging behavior of a pan-tropical seabird, the Masked Booby (Sula dactylatra), in the understudied Caribbean province, a moderately productive region driven by highly dynamic currents and fronts. We tracked 135 individuals with GPS units during May 2013, November 2013, and December 2014 at a regionally important breeding colony in the southern Gulf of Mexico. We measured foraging behavior using characteristics of foraging trips and used area restricted search as a proxy for foraging events. Among individual attributes, nest stage contributed to differences in foraging behavior whereas sex did not. Birds searched for prey at nested hierarchical scales ranging from 200 m-35 km. Large-scale coastal and shelf-slope fronts shifted position between sampling periods and overlapped geographically with overall foraging locations. At small scales (at the prey patch level), the specific relationship between environmental variables and foraging behavior was highly variable among individuals but general patterns emerged. Sea surface height anomaly and velocity of water were the strongest predictors of area restricted search behavior in random forest models, a finding that is consistent with the characterization of the Gulf of Mexico as an energetic system strongly influenced by currents and eddies. Our data may be combined with tracking efforts in the Caribbean province and across tropical regions to advance understanding of seabird sensing of the environment and serve as a baseline for anthropogenic based threats such as development, pollution, and commercial fisheries.

Dynamic oceanography determines fine scale foraging behavior of Masked Boobies in the Gulf of Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poli, Caroline L.; Harrison, Autumn-Lynn; Vallarino, Adriana; Gerard, Patrick D.; Jodice, Patrick G.R.

2017-01-01

During breeding, foraging marine birds are under biological, geographic, and temporal constraints. These contraints require foraging birds to efficiently process environmental cues derived from physical habitat features that occur at nested spatial scales. Mesoscale oceanography in particular may change rapidly within and between breeding seasons, and findings from well-studied systems that relate oceanography to seabird foraging may transfer poorly to regions with substantially different oceanographic conditions. Our objective was to examine foraging behavior of a pan-tropical seabird, the Masked Booby (Sula dactylatra), in the understudied Caribbean province, a moderately productive region driven by highly dynamic currents and fronts. We tracked 135 individuals with GPS units during May 2013, November 2013, and December 2014 at a regionally important breeding colony in the southern Gulf of Mexico. We measured foraging behavior using characteristics of foraging trips and used area restricted search as a proxy for foraging events. Among individual attributes, nest stage contributed to differences in foraging behavior whereas sex did not. Birds searched for prey at nested hierarchical scales ranging from 200 m—35 km. Large-scale coastal and shelf-slope fronts shifted position between sampling periods and overlapped geographically with overall foraging locations. At small scales (at the prey patch level), the specific relationship between environmental variables and foraging behavior was highly variable among individuals but general patterns emerged. Sea surface height anomaly and velocity of water were the strongest predictors of area restricted search behavior in random forest models, a finding that is consistent with the characterization of the Gulf of Mexico as an energetic system strongly influenced by currents and eddies. Our data may be combined with tracking efforts in the Caribbean province and across tropical regions to advance understanding of seabird sensing of the environment and serve as a baseline for anthropogenic based threats such as development, pollution, and commercial fisheries.

Nested Logit Models for Multiple-Choice Item Response Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suh, Youngsuk; Bolt, Daniel M.

2010-01-01

Nested logit item response models for multiple-choice data are presented. Relative to previous models, the new models are suggested to provide a better approximation to multiple-choice items where the application of a solution strategy precedes consideration of response options. In practice, the models also accommodate collapsibility across all…

Weather Research and Forecasting model simulation of an onshore wind farm: assessment against LiDAR and SCADA data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santoni, Christian; Garcia-Cartagena, Edgardo J.; Zhan, Lu; Iungo, Giacomo Valerio; Leonardi, Stefano

2017-11-01

The integration of wind farm parameterizations into numerical weather prediction models is essential to study power production under realistic conditions. Nevertheless, recent models are unable to capture turbine wake interactions and, consequently, the mean kinetic energy entrainment, which are essential for the development of power optimization models. To address the study of wind turbine wake interaction, one-way nested mesoscale to large-eddy simulation (LES) were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). The simulation contains five nested domains modeling the mesoscale wind on the entire North Texas Panhandle region to the microscale wind fluctuations and turbine wakes of a wind farm located at Panhandle, Texas. The wind speed, direction and boundary layer profile obtained from WRF were compared against measurements obtained with a sonic anemometer and light detection and ranging system located within the wind farm. Additionally, the power production were assessed against measurements obtained from the supervisory control and data acquisition system located in each turbine. Furthermore, to incorporate the turbines into very coarse LES, a modification to the implementation of the wind farm parameterization by Fitch et al. (2012) is proposed. This work was supported by the NSF, Grants No. 1243482 (WINDINSPIRE) and IIP 1362033 (WindSTAR), and TACC.

50 CFR 22.25 - What are the requirements concerning permits to take golden eagle nests?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

.... This information will be used to review permit applications and make decisions, according to the... Director—Attention: Migratory Bird Permit Office. You can find addresses for the appropriate Regional... preservation of the area nesting population of golden eagles. In making such determination, the Director shall...

[Effect of landscape change on the structure of the sting-less bee community (Hymenoptera: Apidae) in Meta, Colombia].

PubMed

Nates-Parra, Guiomar; Palacios, Eliana; Parra-H, Alejandro

2008-09-01

Stingless bees represent one of the most diversified components of the natural Apoidea fauna of pollinators in the tropics. They use diverse kinds of substrates and inhabit varied habitats. Some species are typical for some natural either artificial place. The landscape alteration were this group of bees nests, has and important impact on the natural composition of its community structure, fact which is reflected in the nest density. We analyzed the structure composition of the stingless bees' community in three environments in the Colombian Ilanos piedmont, an important region that represents the transition between Andean ecosystems and a savannah that is seriously threatened by cattle practices. We made systematic samples in secondary forest, agro-ecosystems and urban areas, recording the presence of 204 nests from 11 genera (24 species). The nest density per landscape was heterogeneous and never higher than 16 nests/Ha. We observed two nesting patterns and an effect of sampling criterion on the measured biodiversity.

A Primer for Analyzing Nested Data: Multilevel Modeling in SPSS Using an Example from a REL Study. REL 2015-046

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Dwyer, Laura M.; Parker, Caroline E.

2014-01-01

Analyzing data that possess some form of nesting is often challenging for applied researchers or district staff who are involved in or in charge of conducting data analyses. This report provides a description of the challenges for analyzing nested data and provides a primer of how multilevel regression modeling may be used to resolve these…

Development and Validation of Spatially Explicit Habitat Models for Cavity-nesting Birds in Fishlake National Forest, Utah

Treesearch

Randall A., Jr. Schultz; Thomas C., Jr. Edwards; Gretchen G. Moisen; Tracey S. Frescino

2005-01-01

The ability of USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) generated spatial products to increase the predictive accuracy of spatially explicit, macroscale habitat models was examined for nest-site selection by cavity-nesting birds in Fishlake National Forest, Utah. One FIA-derived variable (percent basal area of aspen trees) was significant in the habitat...

American white pelicans breeding in the northern plains: productivity, behavior, movements, and migration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sovada, Marsha A.; Pietz, Pamela J.; Woodward, Robert O.; Bartos, Alisa J.; Buhl, Deborah A.; Assenmacher, Michael J.

2013-01-01

Nearly half of American white pelicans (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos; hereafter pelicans) are believed to nest in several large colonies in the northern plains, yet few studies had been conducted on pelicans in this region until research began in 2004 to investigate the impact of West Nile virus (WNV) on their chicks. The work reported here focused on two of the largest colonies in the region, at Bitter Lake, South Dakota, and Chase Lake, North Dakota, during 2005–10. Pelicans usually began arriving at these two breeding colonies in early April. Egg-laying began during mid-April and nest initiations continued through May. The number of nests documented at these colonies reached a high of about 15,400 at Bitter Lake and 17,300 at Chase Lake, both in 2006. During 2006–8, annual variation in hatching success was high (40 to 100 percent) at video-monitored nests, averaging 61 percent for 82 nests at Bitter Lake and 57 percent for 88 nests at Chase Lake. Although most nests contained two eggs, of those where two chicks hatched, both chicks survived to the crèche stage (about 15 days old) at only two nests. Severe weather events, disturbance, and siblicide were documented causes of early season (before mid-July) mortalities. In the late season (mid-July to fledging), WNV was the most important factor contributing to chick mortality. Nests were nearly always attended by one adult during incubation and brooding. Adults typically exchanged places at the nest around mid-day in all 3 years, apparently taking advantage of thermals to gain altitude for travel to and from foraging areas. The mean time of exchange differed by about an hour between Bitter Lake (1328 central standard time, CST) and Chase Lake (1434 CST) colonies. During incubation, nearly 3 days often passed between adult nest exchanges; after chicks hatched, exchanges usually occurred daily. Exchanges were more frequent and chicks were fed more often at successful nests than at failed nests. Adult pelicans with satellite transmitters that incorporated a Global Positioning System (GPS) foraged primarily in shallow areas of lakes and semipermanent wetlands. These areas coincide with typical habitats of crayfish, salamanders, and rough fish, which were also the foods most commonly seen in pelican regurgitates at the colonies. Several satellite-tracked pelicans made frequent round trips between their breeding colony and foraging areas, most likely to provision their chicks. Typical distances travelled to foraging sites ranged from 30 kilometers to over 90 kilometers. Return times to the colonies (about 1300 and 1500 CST at Bitter Lake and Chase Lake, respectively) supported the colony difference documented at video-monitored nests. Of 28 pelicans tagged with GPS satellite transmitters in 2005–6, 26 survived the first summer and migrated south during fall. Nineteen of these returned to the breeding region (defined as north of the latitude of South Dakota’s southern border) in at least 1 year during 2006–9; collectively, they returned to the breeding region 33 times. Very few pelicans returned to the colony where they had been tagged; many did not breed and concentrated their activities at wetland complexes in South Dakota and North Dakota, but few tagged pelicans temporally overlapped at specific sites. During 2005–9, tagged pelicans collectively made 56 migratory trips south in the fall. Most wintered in Mexico, near the gulf coast and elsewhere; others wintered in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida. Individuals typically returned to the same general areas each winter. Individuals rarely followed the same migratory path on their way south and north, but they often roughly repeated southerly or northerly routes among years. Ensuring a sustainable population of American white pelicans requires identification and mitigation of known threats. The work described herein has identified WNV and severe weather as important factors that potentially limit reproductive success and recruitment in the northern plains. Managers in this region could assess the influence of such factors on productivity at key colonies by annually obtaining aerial photographs during peak nesting, and estimating numbers of chicks fledged from aerial photographs or ground counts. Banding a subsample of chicks in late June or early July, followed by a sweep for bands at the end of the season, would allow estimation of mortality rates of older chicks (that normally would fledge) and help track the influence of WNV or other mortality factors over time and varying environmental conditions.

Variability in individual assessment behaviour and its implications for collective decision-making.

PubMed

O'Shea-Wheller, Thomas A; Masuda, Naoki; Sendova-Franks, Ana B; Franks, Nigel R

2017-02-08

Self-organized systems of collective behaviour have been demonstrated in a number of group-living organisms. There is, however, less research relating to how variation in individual assessments may facilitate group decision-making. Here, we investigate this using the decentralized system of collective nest choice behaviour employed by the ant Temnothorax albipennis, combining experimental results with computational modelling. In experiments, isolated workers of this species were allowed to investigate new nest sites of differing quality, and it was found that for any given nest quality, there was wide variation among individuals in the durations that they spent within each nest site. Additionally, individual workers were consistent in spending more time in nest sites of higher quality, and less time in those of lower quality. Hence, the time spent in a new nest site must have included an assessment of nest quality. As nest site visit durations (henceforth termed assessment durations) are linked to recruitment, it is possible that the variability we observed may influence the collective decision-making process of colonies. Thus, we explored this further using a computational model of nest site selection, and found that heterogeneous nest assessments conferred a number of potential benefits. Furthermore, our experiments showed that nest quality assessments were flexible, being influenced by experience of prior options. Our findings help to elucidate the potential mechanisms underlying group behaviour, and highlight the importance of heterogeneity among individuals, rather than precise calibration, in shaping collective decision-making. © 2017 The Author(s).

Nest survival of piping plovers at a dynamic reservoir indicates an ecological trap for a threatened population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anteau, Michael J.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Sherfy, Mark H.; Sovada, Marsha A.; Stucker, Jennifer H.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.

2012-01-01

In the past 60 years, reservoirs have reshaped riverine ecosystems and transformed breeding habitats used by the threatened piping plover (Charadrius melodus; hereafter plover). Currently, 29% of the Northern Great Plains plover population nests at reservoirs that might function as ecological traps because reservoirs have more diverse habitat features and greater dynamics in water levels than habitats historically used by breeding plovers. We examined factors influencing daily survival rates (DSR) of 346 plover nests at Lake Sakakawea (SAK; reservoir) during 2006–2009 by evaluating multiple a priori models, and we used our best model to hindcast nest success of plovers during 1985–2009. Our observed and hindcast estimates of nest success were low compared to published estimates. Previous findings indicate that plovers prefer nest sites that are low relative to water level. We found that elevation of nests above the water level had a strong positive correlation with DSR because water levels of SAK typically increased throughout the nesting period. Habitat characteristics on the reservoir differ from those that shaped nest-site selection for plovers. Accordingly, extraordinary nest loss occurs there in many years, largely due to inundation of nests, and based on low fledging rates those losses were not compensated by potential changes in chick survival. Therefore, our example supports the concept of ecological traps in birds because it addresses quantitative assessments of habitat preference and productivity over 25 years (since species listing) and affects a large portion of the population.

Microscale anthropogenic pollution modelling in a small tropical island during weak trade winds: Lagrangian particle dispersion simulations using real nested LES meteorological fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cécé, Raphaël; Bernard, Didier; Brioude, Jérome; Zahibo, Narcisse

2016-08-01

Tropical islands are characterized by thermal and orographical forcings which may generate microscale air mass circulations. The Lesser Antilles Arc includes small tropical islands (width lower than 50 km) where a total of one-and-a-half million people live. Air quality over this region is affected by anthropogenic and volcanic emissions, or saharan dust. To reduce risks for the population health, the atmospheric dispersion of emitted pollutants must be predicted. In this study, the dispersion of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides (NOx) is numerically modelled over the densely populated area of the Guadeloupe archipelago under weak trade winds, during a typical case of severe pollution. The main goal is to analyze how microscale resolutions affect air pollution in a small tropical island. Three resolutions of domain grid are selected: 1 km, 333 m and 111 m. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is used to produce real nested microscale meteorological fields. Then the weather outputs initialize the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (FLEXPART). The forward simulations of a power plant plume showed good ability to reproduce nocturnal peaks recorded by an urban air quality station. The increase in resolution resulted in an improvement of model sensitivity. The nesting to subkilometer grids helped to reduce an overestimation bias mainly because the LES domains better simulate the turbulent motions governing nocturnal flows. For peaks observed at two air quality stations, the backward sensitivity outputs identified realistic sources of NOx in the area. The increase in resolution produced a sharper inverse plume with a more accurate source area. This study showed the first application of the FLEXPART-WRF model to microscale resolutions. Overall, the coupling model WRF-LES-FLEXPART is useful to simulate the pollutant dispersion during a real case of calm wind regime over a complex terrain area. The forward and backward simulation results showed clearly that the subkilometer resolution of 333 m is necessary to reproduce realistic air pollution patterns in this case of short-range transport over a complex terrain area. Globally, this work contributes to enrich the sparsely documented domain of real nested microscale air pollution modelling. This study dealing with the determination of the proper resolution grid and proper turbulence scheme, is of significant interest to the near-source and complex terrain air quality research community.

Nested high-resolution large-eddy simulations in WRF to support wind power

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirocha, J.; Kirkil, G.; Kosovic, B.; Lundquist, J. K.

2009-12-01

The WRF model’s grid nesting capability provides a potentially powerful framework for simulating flow over a wide range of scales. One such application is computation of realistic inflow boundary conditions for large eddy simulations (LES) by nesting LES domains within mesoscale domains. While nesting has been widely and successfully applied at GCM to mesoscale resolutions, the WRF model’s nesting behavior at the high-resolution (Δx < 1000m) end of the spectrum is less well understood. Nesting LES within msoscale domains can significantly improve turbulent flow prediction at the scale of a wind park, providing a basis for superior site characterization, or for improved simulation of turbulent inflows encountered by turbines. We investigate WRF’s grid nesting capability at high mesh resolutions using nested mesoscale and large-eddy simulations. We examine the spatial scales required for flow structures to equilibrate to the finer mesh as flow enters a nest, and how the process depends on several parameters, including grid resolution, turbulence subfilter stress models, relaxation zones at nest interfaces, flow velocities, surface roughnesses, terrain complexity and atmospheric stability. Guidance on appropriate domain sizes and turbulence models for LES in light of these results is provided This work is performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344 LLNL-ABS-416482

Canada goose nest survival at rural wetlands in north-central Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ness, Brenna N.; Klaver, Robert W.

2016-01-01

The last comprehensive nest survival study of the breeding giant Canada goose (Branta canadensis maxima) population in Iowa, USA, was conducted >30 years ago during a period of population recovery, during which available nesting habitat consisted primarily of artificial nest structures. Currently, Iowa's resident goose population is stable and nests in a variety of habitats. We analyzed the effects of available habitat on nest survival and how nest survival rates compared with those of the expanding goose population studied previously to better understand how to maintain a sustainable Canada goose population in Iowa. We documented Canada goose nest survival at rural wetland sites in north-central Iowa. We monitored 121 nests in 2013 and 149 nests in 2014 at 5 Wildlife Management Areas (WMAs) with various nesting habitats, including islands, muskrat (Ondatra zibethicus) houses, and elevated nest structures. We estimated daily nest-survival rate using the nest survival model in Program MARK. Survival was influenced by year, site, stage, presence of a camera, nest age, and an interaction between nest age and stage. Nest success rates for the 28-day incubation period by site and year combination ranged from 0.10 to 0.84. Nest survival was greatest at sites with nest structures (β = 17.34). Nest survival was negatively affected by lowered water levels at Rice Lake WMA (2013 β = −0.77, nest age β = −0.07). Timing of water-level drawdowns for shallow lake restorations may influence nest survival rates.

Influence of an extreme high water event on survival, reproduction, and distribution of snail kites in Florida, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bennetts, R.E.; Kitchens, W.M.; Dreitz, V.J.

2002-01-01

Hydrology frequently has been reported as the environmental variable having the greatest influence on Florida snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis) populations. Although drought has received the most attention, high-water conditions also have been reported to affect kites. Years of high water generally have been reported to be favorable for nesting, although prolonged high water may be detrimental to sustaining suitable habitat. During 1994 and 1995, southern Florida experienced an extreme high water event. This event enabled us to compare survival, nesting success, number of young per successful nest, and spatial distribution of nesting before, during, and after the event. We found no evidence of an effect (either negative or positive) on survival of adult kites. In contrast, juvenile kites experienced the highest survival during the event, although our data suggest greater annual variability than can be explained by the event alone. We found no evidence of an effect of the high water event on nest success or number of young per successful nest. Nest success was highest during the event in the southern portion of the range but was quite similar to other years, both before and after the event. Our data do indicate a substantial shift in the spatial distribution of nesting birds. During the event, nesting activity shifted to higher elevations (i.e., shallower water) in the major nesting areas of the Everglades region. Nesting also occurred in Big Cypress National Preserve during the event, which is typically too dry to support nesting kites. Thus, our data indicate a potential short-term benefit of increased juvenile survival and an expansion of nesting habitat. However, the deterioration of habitat quality from prolonged high water precludes any recommendation for such conditions to be maintained for extended periods. ?? 2002, The Society of Wetland Scientists.

A Ground-Nesting Galliform's Response to Thermal Heterogeneity: Implications for Ground-Dwelling Birds.

PubMed

Carroll, J Matthew; Davis, Craig A; Elmore, R Dwayne; Fuhlendorf, Samuel D

2015-01-01

The habitat selection choices that individuals make in response to thermal environments influence both survival and reproduction. Importantly, the way that organisms behaviorally respond to thermal environments depends on the availability and juxtaposition of sites affording tolerable or preferred microclimates. Although, ground nesting birds are especially susceptible to heat extremes across many reproductive stages (i.e., breeding, nesting, brood rearing), the mechanistic drivers of nest site selection for these species are not well established from a thermal perspective. Our goal was to assess nest site selection relative to the configuration of the thermal landscape by quantifying thermal environments available to a ground-nesting bird species inhabiting a climatically stressful environment. Using northern bobwhite (Colinus virginanus) as a model species, we measured black bulb temperature (Tbb) and vegetation parameters at 87 nests, 87 paired sites and 205 random landscape sites in Western Oklahoma during spring and summer 2013 and 2014. We found that thermal space within the study area exhibited differences in Tbb of up to 40°C during peak diurnal heating, resulting in a diverse thermal landscape available to ground-nesting birds. Within this thermally heterogeneous landscape, nest sites moderated Tbb by more than 12°C compared to random landscape sites. Furthermore, successful nests remained on average 6°C cooler than unsuccessful nests on days experiencing ambient temperatures ≥ 39°C. Models of future Tbb associated with 2080 climate change projections indicate that nesting bobwhites will face substantially greater Tbb throughout the landscape for longer durations, placing an even greater importance on thermal choices for nest sites in the future. These results highlight the capacity of landscape features to act as moderators of thermal extremes and demonstrate how thermal complexity at organism-specific scales can dictate habitat selection.

When beggars are choosers-How nesting of a solitary bee is affected by temporal dynamics of pollen plants in the landscape.

PubMed

Persson, Anna S; Mazier, Florence; Smith, Henrik G

2018-06-01

Wild bees are declining in intensively farmed regions worldwide, threatening pollination services to flowering crops and wild plants. To halt bee declines, it is essential that conservation actions are based on a mechanistic understanding of how bee species utilize landscapes. We aimed at teasing apart how foraging resources in the landscape through the nesting season affected nesting and reproduction of a solitary bee in a farmland region. We investigated how availability of floral resources and potentially resource-rich habitats surrounding nests affected nest provisioning and reproduction in the solitary polylectic bee Osmia bicornis . The study was performed in 18 landscape sectors dominated by agriculture, but varying in agricultural intensity in terms of proportion of organic crop fields and seminatural permanent pastures. Pasture-rich sectors contained more oak ( Quercus robur ), which pollen analysis showed to be favored forage in early season. More oaks ≤100 m from nests led to higher proportions of oak pollen in nest provisions and increased speed of nest construction in early season, but this effect tapered off as flowering decreased. Late-season pollen foraging was dominated by buttercup ( Ranunculus spp.), common in various noncrop habitats. Foraging trips were longer with more oaks and increased further through the season. The opposite was found for buttercup. Oak and buttercup interacted to explain the number of offspring; buttercup had a positive effect only when the number of oaks was above the mean for the studied sectors. The results show that quality of complex and pasture-rich landscapes for O. bicornis depends on preserving existing and generating new oak trees. Lignose plants are key early-season forage resources in agricultural landscapes. Increasing habitat heterogeneity with trees and shrubs and promoting suitable late-flowering forbs can benefit O. bicornis and other wild bees active in spring and early summer, something which existing agri-environment schemes seldom target.

Hurricane disturbance benefits nesting American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simons, Theodore R.; Schulte, Shiloh A.

2016-01-01

Coastal ecosystems are under increasing pressure from human activity, introduced species, sea level rise, and storm activity. Hurricanes are a powerful destructive force, but can also renew coastal habitats. In 2003, Hurricane Isabel altered the barrier islands of North Carolina, flattening dunes and creating sand flats. American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus) are large shorebirds that inhabit the coastal zone throughout the year. Alternative survival models were evaluated for 699 American Oystercatcher nests on North Core Banks and South Core Banks, North Carolina, USA, from 1999–2007. Nest survival on North Core Banks increased from 0.170 (SE = 0.002) to 0.772 (SE = 0.090) after the hurricane, with a carry-over effect lasting 2 years. A simple year effects model described nest survival on South Core Banks. Habitat had no effect on survival except when the overall rate of nest survival was at intermediate levels (0.300–0.600), when nests on open flats survived at a higher rate (0.600; SE = 0.112) than nests in dune habitat (0.243; SE = 0.094). Predator activity declined on North Core Banks after the hurricane and corresponded with an increase in nest survival. Periodic years with elevated nest survival may offset low annual productivity and contribute to the stability of American Oystercatcher populations.

MIMICKING COUNTERFACTUAL OUTCOMES TO ESTIMATE CAUSAL EFFECTS.

PubMed

Lok, Judith J

2017-04-01

In observational studies, treatment may be adapted to covariates at several times without a fixed protocol, in continuous time. Treatment influences covariates, which influence treatment, which influences covariates, and so on. Then even time-dependent Cox-models cannot be used to estimate the net treatment effect. Structural nested models have been applied in this setting. Structural nested models are based on counterfactuals: the outcome a person would have had had treatment been withheld after a certain time. Previous work on continuous-time structural nested models assumes that counterfactuals depend deterministically on observed data, while conjecturing that this assumption can be relaxed. This article proves that one can mimic counterfactuals by constructing random variables, solutions to a differential equation, that have the same distribution as the counterfactuals, even given past observed data. These "mimicking" variables can be used to estimate the parameters of structural nested models without assuming the treatment effect to be deterministic.

Atmospheric inversion of surface carbon flux with consideration of the spatial distribution of US crop production and consumption

DOE PAGES

Chen, J. M.; Fung, J. W.; Mo, G.; ...

2015-01-19

In order to improve quantification of the spatial distribution of carbon sinks and sources in the conterminous US, we conduct a nested global atmospheric inversion with detailed spatial information on crop production and consumption. County-level cropland net primary productivity, harvested biomass, soil carbon change, and human and livestock consumption data over the conterminous US are used for this purpose. Time-dependent Bayesian synthesis inversions are conducted based on CO₂ observations at 210 stations to infer CO₂ fluxes globally at monthly time steps with a nested focus on 30 regions in North America. Prior land surface carbon fluxes are first generated usingmore » a biospheric model, and the inversions are constrained using prior fluxes with and without adjustments for crop production and consumption over the 2002–2007 period. After these adjustments, the inverted regional carbon sink in the US Midwest increases from 0.25 ± 0.03 to 0.42 ± 0.13 Pg C yr⁻¹, whereas the large sink in the US southeast forest region is weakened from 0.41 ± 0.12 to 0.29 ± 0.12 Pg C yr⁻¹. These adjustments also reduce the inverted sink in the west region from 0.066 ± 0.04 to 0.040 ± 0.02 Pg C yr⁻¹ because of high crop consumption and respiration by humans and livestock. The general pattern of sink increases in crop production areas and sink decreases (or source increases) in crop consumption areas highlights the importance of considering the lateral carbon transfer in crop products in atmospheric inverse modeling, which provides a reliable atmospheric perspective of the overall carbon balance at the continental scale but is unreliable for separating fluxes from different ecosystems.« less

Environmental influences on the nesting phenology and productivity of Mississippi Kites (Ictinia mississippiensis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Welch, Brandi C.; Boal, Clint W.; Skipper, Ben R.

2017-01-01

Identifying sources of annual variation in the reproductive success of a species may provide valuable insights into how the species may be affected by future environmental or climatic conditions. We examined annual variation in the nesting phenology, productivity, and apparent nest success of Mississippi Kites (Ictinia mississippiensis), a species common in urban areas in the southern Great Plains, from May through August. We monitored 498 Mississippi Kite nesting attempts in Lubbock, Texas, USA, between 2004 and 2015, from which we modeled daily survival rate as a function of local weather conditions, drought severity, and the state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. We observed significant annual variation in median incubation initiation date (range = May 20 to June 5), the probability of nest success (range = 0.31–0.90), and productivity (range = 0.25–1.00 fledglings per nest). Our models of daily survival rate suggested that higher daily temperatures, severe storm events, extreme drought conditions, and La Niña events negatively influenced nest survival. These results suggest that increasing storm frequency and higher temperatures associated with climate change are likely to decrease the nesting success of Mississippi Kites in the southern Great Plains.

Nest-site selection analysis of hooded crane (Grus monacha) in Northeastern China based on a multivariate ensemble model.

PubMed

Jiao, Shengwu; Guo, Yumin; Huettmann, Falk; Lei, Guangchun

2014-07-01

Avian nest-site selection is an important research and management subject. The hooded crane (Grus monacha) is a vulnerable (VU) species according to the IUCN Red List. Here, we present the first long-term Chinese legacy nest data for this species (1993-2010) with publicly available metadata. Further, we provide the first study that reports findings on multivariate nest habitat preference using such long-term field data for this species. Our work was carried out in Northeastern China, where we found and measured 24 nests and 81 randomly selected control plots and their environmental parameters in a vast landscape. We used machine learning (stochastic boosted regression trees) to quantify nest selection. Our analysis further included varclust (R Hmisc) and (TreenNet) to address statistical correlations and two-way interactions. We found that from an initial list of 14 measured field variables, water area (+), water depth (+) and shrub coverage (-) were the main explanatory variables that contributed to hooded crane nest-site selection. Agricultural sites played a smaller role in the selection of these nests. Our results are important for the conservation management of cranes all over East Asia and constitute a defensible and quantitative basis for predictive models.

Signal to noise quantification of regional climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, S.; Rupp, D. E.; Mote, P.

2016-12-01

One of the biggest challenges in interpreting climate model outputs for impacts studies and adaptation planning is understanding the sources of disagreement among models (which is often used imperfectly as a stand-in for system uncertainty). Internal variability is a primary source of uncertainty in climate projections, especially for precipitation, for which models disagree about even the sign of changes in large areas like the continental US. Taking advantage of a large initial-condition ensemble of regional climate simulations, this study quantifies the magnitude of changes forced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations relative to internal variability. Results come from a large initial-condition ensemble of regional climate model simulations generated by weather@home, a citizen science computing platform, where the western United States climate was simulated for the recent past (1985-2014) and future (2030-2059) using a 25-km horizontal resolution regional climate model (HadRM3P) nested in global atmospheric model (HadAM3P). We quantify grid point level signal-to-noise not just in temperature and precipitation responses, but also the energy and moisture flux terms that are related to temperature and precipitation responses, to provide important insights regarding uncertainty in climate change projections at local and regional scales. These results will aid modelers in determining appropriate ensemble sizes for different climate variables and help users of climate model output with interpreting climate model projections.

The Influences of Soil Characteristics on Nest-Site Selection in Painted Turtles (Chrysemys picta)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Page, R.

2017-12-01

A variety of animals dig nests and lay their eggs in soil, leaving them to incubate and hatch without assistance from the parents. Nesting habitat is important for these organisms many of which exhibit temperature dependent sex determination (TSD) whereby the incubation temperature determines the sex of each hatchling. However, suitable nesting habitat may be limited due to anthropogenic activities and global temperature increases. Soil thermal properties are critical to these organisms and are positively correlated with water retention and soil carbon; carbon-rich soils result in higher incubation temperatures. We investigated nest-site selection in painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) inhabiting an anthropogenic pond in south central Pennsylvania. We surveyed for turtle nests and documented location, depth, width, temperature, canopy coverage, clutch size, and hatch success for a total of 31 turtle nests. To address the influence of soil carbon and particle size on nest selection, we analyzed samples collected from: 1) actual nests that were depredated, 2) false nests, incomplete nests aborted during digging prior to nest completion, and 3) randomized locations. Soil samples were separated into coarse, medium, and fine grain size fractions through a stack of sieves. Samples were combusted in a total carbon analyzer to measure weight percent organic carbon. We found that anthropogenic activity at this site has created homogenous, sandy, compacted soils at the uppermost layer that may limit females' access to appropriate nesting habitat. Turtle nesting activity was limited to a linear region north of the pond and was constrained by an impassable rail line. Relative to other studies, turtle nests were notably shallow (5.8±0.9 cm) and placed close to the pond. Compared to false nests and random locations, turtle-selected sites averaged greater coarse grains (35% compared to 20.24 and 20.57%) and less fine grains (47% compared to 59 and 59, respectively). Despite remarkably high soil carbon along the rail line (47.08%) turtles nested here with slightly higher hatch success. We suggest that the turtles are limited to sandy, compact soils with low heat capacities and may compensate for this by also nesting adjacent to the rail line where high soil carbon could increase incubation temperatures.

Nest survival of clay-colored and vesper sparrows in relation to woodland edge in mixed-grass prairies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, T.A.; Madden, E.M.; Shaffer, T.L.; Pietz, P.J.; Berkey, G.B.; Kadrmas, N.J.

2006-01-01

The quantity and quality of northern mixed-grass prairie continues to decline because of conversion to agriculture, invasion of woody and exotic plants, and disruption of important ecological processes that shape grasslands. Declines in grassland bird populations in North Dakota, USA, have coincided with these largely anthropogenic alterations to prairie habitat. In grasslands of north-central and northwestern North Dakota, woody plants have increased due primarily to fire suppression, extirpation of bison (Bos bison), and widescale planting of tree shelter belts. In northern grasslands, effects of woody vegetation on survival of grassland birds are poorly understood, and conclusions are based mainly on studies conducted outside the region. We examined nest survival of clay-colored sparrows (Spizella pallida) and vesper sparrows (Pooecetes gramineus) relative to the distance nests were located from aspen (Populus tremuloides,) woodland edges and relative to other habitat features near the nest. Clay-colored and vesper sparrow nest survival was higher for nests located near woodland edges, nests with greater cover of Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis), and nests more concealed by vegetation. Vesper sparrow nest survival increased as the percent cover of tall shrubs near the nest increased. Based on video-camera data, the 13-lined ground squirrel (Spermophilus tridecemlineatus,) was the most common predator of sparrow eggs and young. Thirteen-lined ground squirrels were more common far from woodland edges than near, and this pattern may, in part, explain clay-colored and vesper sparrow nest survival in relation to woodland edges. In contrast to our results, studies conducted in other grassland systems generally report lower nest survival for grassland birds nesting near trees and shrubs. This disparity in results demonstrates the need to identify specific nest predators and their distributions with respect to important habitat features because these data can be important in explaining-and perhaps predicting-patterns of nest predation.

Influence of human development and predators on nest survival of tundra birds, Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska.

PubMed

Liebezeit, J R; Kendall, S J; Brown, S; Johnson, C B; Martin, P; McDonald, T L; Payer, D C; Rea, C L; Streever, B; Wildman, A M; Zack, S

2009-09-01

Nest predation may influence population dynamics of birds on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of Alaska, USA. Anthropogenic development on the ACP is increasing, which may attract nest predators by providing artificial sources of food, perches, den sites, and nest sites. Enhanced populations or concentrations of human-subsidized predators may reduce nest survival for tundra-nesting birds. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that nest survival decreases in proximity to human infrastructure. We monitored 1257 nests of 13 shorebird species and 619 nests of four passerine species at seven sites on the ACP from 2002 to 2005. Study sites were chosen to represent a range of distances to infrastructure from 100 m to 80 km. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to evaluate the effects of background (i.e., natural) factors and infrastructure on nest survival. We documented high spatial and temporal variability in nest survival, and site and year were both included in the best background model. We did not detect an effect of human infrastructure on nest survival for shorebirds as a group. In contrast, we found evidence that risk of predation for passerine nests increased within 5 km of infrastructure. This finding provides quantitative evidence of a relationship between infrastructure and nest survival for breeding passerines on the ACP. A posteriori finer-scale analyses (within oil field sites and individual species) suggested that Red and Red-necked Phalaropes combined (Phalaropus fulicarius, P. lobatus) had lower productivity closer to infrastructure and in areas with higher abundance of subsidized predators. However, we did not detect such a relationship between infrastructure and nest survival for Semipalmated and Pectoral Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla, C. melanotos), the two most abundant shorebirds. High variability in environmental conditions, nest survival, and predator numbers between sites and years may have contributed to these inconsistent results. We recommend targeted management actions to minimize anthropogenic effects and suggest new research needed on this issue as expanding development is planned for the ACP of Alaska. In particular, we recommend research on demography of key predators and their importance with respect to nest survival, and experimental studies that better address challenges posed by high natural variability.

Habitat classification modeling with incomplete data: Pushing the habitat envelope

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zarnetske, P.L.; Edwards, T.C.; Moisen, Gretchen G.

2007-01-01

Habitat classification models (HCMs) are invaluable tools for species conservation, land-use planning, reserve design, and metapopulation assessments, particularly at broad spatial scales. However, species occurrence data are often lacking and typically limited to presence points at broad scales. This lack of absence data precludes the use of many statistical techniques for HCMs. One option is to generate pseudo-absence points so that the many available statistical modeling tools can be used. Traditional techniques generate pseudoabsence points at random across broadly defined species ranges, often failing to include biological knowledge concerning the species-habitat relationship. We incorporated biological knowledge of the species-habitat relationship into pseudo-absence points by creating habitat envelopes that constrain the region from which points were randomly selected. We define a habitat envelope as an ecological representation of a species, or species feature's (e.g., nest) observed distribution (i.e., realized niche) based on a single attribute, or the spatial intersection of multiple attributes. We created HCMs for Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis atricapillus) nest habitat during the breeding season across Utah forests with extant nest presence points and ecologically based pseudo-absence points using logistic regression. Predictor variables were derived from 30-m USDA Landfire and 250-m Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) map products. These habitat-envelope-based models were then compared to null envelope models which use traditional practices for generating pseudo-absences. Models were assessed for fit and predictive capability using metrics such as kappa, thresholdindependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots, adjusted deviance (Dadj2), and cross-validation, and were also assessed for ecological relevance. For all cases, habitat envelope-based models outperformed null envelope models and were more ecologically relevant, suggesting that incorporating biological knowledge into pseudo-absence point generation is a powerful tool for species habitat assessments. Furthermore, given some a priori knowledge of the species-habitat relationship, ecologically based pseudo-absence points can be applied to any species, ecosystem, data resolution, and spatial extent. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological consequences of colony structure in dynamic ant nest networks.

PubMed

Ellis, Samuel; Franks, Daniel W; Robinson, Elva J H

2017-02-01

Access to resources depends on an individual's position within the environment. This is particularly important to animals that invest heavily in nest construction, such as social insects. Many ant species have a polydomous nesting strategy: a single colony inhabits several spatially separated nests, often exchanging resources between the nests. Different nests in a polydomous colony potentially have differential access to resources, but the ecological consequences of this are unclear. In this study, we investigate how nest survival and budding in polydomous wood ant ( Formica lugubris ) colonies are affected by being part of a multi-nest system. Using field data and novel analytical approaches combining survival models with dynamic network analysis, we show that the survival and budding of nests within a polydomous colony are affected by their position in the nest network structure. Specifically, we find that the flow of resources through a nest, which is based on its position within the wider nest network, determines a nest's likelihood of surviving and of founding new nests. Our results highlight how apparently disparate entities in a biological system can be integrated into a functional ecological unit. We also demonstrate how position within a dynamic network structure can have important ecological consequences.

High-tech or field techs: Radio-telemetry is a cost-effective method for reducing bias in songbird nest searching

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, Sean M.; Streby, Henry M.; Lehman, Justin A.; Kramer, Gunnar R.; Fish, Alexander C.; Andersen, David E.

2015-01-01

We compared the efficacy of standard nest-searching methods with finding nests via radio-tagged birds to assess how search technique influenced our determination of nest-site characteristics and nest success for Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera). We also evaluated the cost-effectiveness of using radio-tagged birds to find nests. Using standard nest-searching techniques for 3 populations, we found 111 nests in locations with habitat characteristics similar to those described in previous studies: edges between forest and relatively open areas of early successional vegetation or shrubby wetlands, with 43% within 5 m of forest edge. The 83 nests found using telemetry were about half as likely (23%) to be within 5 m of forest edge. We spent little time searching >25 m into forest because published reports state that Golden-winged Warblers do not nest there. However, 14 nests found using telemetry (18%) were >25 m into forest. We modeled nest success using nest-searching method, nest age, and distance to forest edge as explanatory variables. Nest-searching method explained nest success better than nest age alone; we estimated that nests found using telemetry were 10% more likely to fledge young than nests found using standard nest-searching methods. Although radio-telemetry was more expensive than standard nest searching, the cost-effectiveness of both methods differed depending on searcher experience, amount of equipment owned, and bird population density. Our results demonstrate that telemetry can be an effective method for reducing bias in Golden-winged Warbler nest samples, can be cost competitive with standard nest-searching methods in some situations, and is likely to be a useful approach for finding nests of other forest-nesting songbirds.

Effects of illegal harvest of eggs on the population decline of leatherback turtles in Las Baulas Marine National Park, Costa Rica.

PubMed

Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián; Saba, Vincent S; Piedra, Rotney; Paladino, Frank V; Spotila, James R

2008-10-01

Within 19 years the nesting population of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at Parque Nacional Marino Las Baulas declined from 1500 turtles nesting per year to about 100. We analyzed the effects of fishery bycatch and illegal harvesting (poaching) of eggs on this population. We modeled the population response to different levels of egg harvest (90, 75, 50, and 25%) and the effect of eradicating poaching at different times during the population decline. We compared effects of 90% poaching with those of 20% adult mortality because both of these processes were present in the population at Las Baulas. There was a stepwise decline in number of nesting turtles at all levels of egg harvest. Extirpation times for different levels of poaching ranged from 45 to 282 years. The nesting population declined more slowly and survived longer with 20% adult mortality (146 years) than it did with 90% poaching (45 years). Time that elapsed until poaching stopped determined the average population size at which the population stabilized, ranging from 90 to 420 nesting turtles. Our model predicted that saving clutches lost naturally would restore the population when adult mortality rates were low and would contribute more to population recovery when there were short remigration intervals between nesting seasons and a large proportion of natural loss of clutches. Because the model indicated that poaching was the most important cause of the leatherback decline at Las Baulas, protecting nests on the beach and protecting the beach from development are critical for survival of this population. Nevertheless, the model predicted that current high mortality rates of adults will prevent population recovery. Therefore, protection of the beach habitat and nests must be continued and fishery bycatch must be reduced to save this population.

Genetic Relatedness of Low Solitary Nests of Apis dorsata from Marang, Terengganu, Malaysia

PubMed Central

Ali, Abdul Manaf; Tan, Soon Guan; Adam, Nur Azura; Lau, Wei Hong

2012-01-01

Knowledge on the population of genetic structure and ecological behaviour of Apis dorsata from Peninsular Malaysia is needed for effective management and conservation of this species since unsustainable whole solitary low nest cutting for product harvesting is the current common practice here. The analysis of 15 single locus DNA microsatellite markers on samples from 20 solitary nests of A. dorsata showed that while these markers were polymorphic, high intracolonial relatedness existed. Furthermore, in general, slightly negative values of intercolony relatedness (R) among the nests of A. dorsata were found. However, positive values of mean intercolony relatedness were observed between 54 pairs of nests out of 190 possible combinations. The R values among nest pairs 3–4 and 3–5 was higher than 0.50 showing that their queens were half siblings, whereas nest pair 19–20 showed relatedness of 0.95 indicating that the same queen was sampled. The results that we obtained could not conclusively support the hypothesis of this study that the honey hunters in Marang district of Malaysia repeatedly harvest the same nest located at a different site and at a different time during the same honey harvesting season. However, our finding of an appreciable level of intercolonial relatedness between several pairs of nests in this pioneer study indicated that a comprehensive study with a larger sample size of solitary nests found throughout the region would be necessary to provide concrete proof for this novel idea. PMID:22911733

Progeny Density and Nest Availability Affect Parasitism Risk and Reproduction in a Solitary Bee (Osmia lignaria) (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae).

PubMed

Farzan, Shahla

2018-02-08

Gregarious nesting behavior occurs in a broad diversity of solitary bees and wasps. Despite the prevalence of aggregative nesting, the underlying drivers and fitness consequences of this behavior remain unclear. I investigated the effect of two key characteristics of nesting aggregations (cavity availability and progeny density) on reproduction and brood parasitism rates in the blue orchard bee (Osmia lignaria Say) (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae), a solitary species that nests gregariously and appears to be attracted to nesting conspecifics. To do so, I experimentally manipulated nest cavity availability in a region of northern Utah with naturally occurring populations of O. lignaria. Nest cavity availability had a negative effect on cuckoo bee (Stelis montana Cresson) (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae) parasitism rates, with lower parasitism rates occurring in nest blocks with more available cavities. For both S. montana and the cleptoparasitic blister beetle Tricrania stansburyi Haldeman (Coleoptera: Meloidae), brood parasitism rate was negatively correlated with log-transformed O. lignaria progeny density. Finally, cavity availability had a positive effect on male O. lignaria body weight, with the heaviest male progeny produced in nest blocks with the most cavities. These results suggest that cavity availability and progeny density can have substantial effects on brood parasitism risk and reproduction in this solitary bee species. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Nesting tree characteristics of heronry birds of urban ecosystems in peninsular India: implications for habitat management

PubMed Central

Sinu, Palatty Allesh

2017-01-01

Abstract Wetland ecosystems, particularly the mangrove forest, are the primary wild habitat of heronry birds. However, urban ecosystems have become a favorite breeding habitat of these birds. To provide inputs into the habitat management for conservation of these birds, we investigated the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of nesting trees of heronry birds in the urban environment of the North Kerala region of peninsular India. Census on nesting trees was done in 3 major microhabitats of the urban ecosystem: avenues of national highways and towns, nonresidential plots, and residential areas apart from the mangrove islets in the peri-urban locality. The study found that 174 trees of 22 species hosted 1,928 heronry bird nests in the urban habitats; mangrove forests, although plentiful in the study area, hosted only about 20% of the total nests encountered in the study. Rain trees Samanea saman (43.7%) were the most available nesting tree. The greatest number of nests and nesting trees were encountered on the roads of urban areas, followed by nonresidential areas and residential areas. The differences in the observed frequencies of nesting trees in 3 microhabitats and in 3 types of roads (national highways > state highways > small pocket road) were significant. Canopy spread, girth size, and quality of the trees predicted the tree selection of the heronry birds in urban environments. Therefore, we recommend proper management and notification of the identified nesting trees as protected sites for the conservation of herorny birds. PMID:29492020

Nesting tree characteristics of heronry birds of urban ecosystems in peninsular India: implications for habitat management.

PubMed

Roshnath, Ramesh; Sinu, Palatty Allesh

2017-12-01

Wetland ecosystems, particularly the mangrove forest, are the primary wild habitat of heronry birds. However, urban ecosystems have become a favorite breeding habitat of these birds. To provide inputs into the habitat management for conservation of these birds, we investigated the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of nesting trees of heronry birds in the urban environment of the North Kerala region of peninsular India. Census on nesting trees was done in 3 major microhabitats of the urban ecosystem: avenues of national highways and towns, nonresidential plots, and residential areas apart from the mangrove islets in the peri-urban locality. The study found that 174 trees of 22 species hosted 1,928 heronry bird nests in the urban habitats; mangrove forests, although plentiful in the study area, hosted only about 20% of the total nests encountered in the study. Rain trees Samanea saman (43.7%) were the most available nesting tree. The greatest number of nests and nesting trees were encountered on the roads of urban areas, followed by nonresidential areas and residential areas. The differences in the observed frequencies of nesting trees in 3 microhabitats and in 3 types of roads (national highways > state highways > small pocket road) were significant. Canopy spread, girth size, and quality of the trees predicted the tree selection of the heronry birds in urban environments. Therefore, we recommend proper management and notification of the identified nesting trees as protected sites for the conservation of herorny birds.

Simulating the Agulhas system in global ocean models - nesting vs. multi-resolution unstructured meshes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biastoch, Arne; Sein, Dmitry; Durgadoo, Jonathan V.; Wang, Qiang; Danilov, Sergey

2018-01-01

Many questions in ocean and climate modelling require the combined use of high resolution, global coverage and multi-decadal integration length. For this combination, even modern resources limit the use of traditional structured-mesh grids. Here we compare two approaches: A high-resolution grid nested into a global model at coarser resolution (NEMO with AGRIF) and an unstructured-mesh grid (FESOM) which allows to variably enhance resolution where desired. The Agulhas system around South Africa is used as a testcase, providing an energetic interplay of a strong western boundary current and mesoscale dynamics. Its open setting into the horizontal and global overturning circulations also requires global coverage. Both model configurations simulate a reasonable large-scale circulation. Distribution and temporal variability of the wind-driven circulation are quite comparable due to the same atmospheric forcing. However, the overturning circulation differs, owing each model's ability to represent formation and spreading of deep water masses. In terms of regional, high-resolution dynamics, all elements of the Agulhas system are well represented. Owing to the strong nonlinearity in the system, Agulhas Current transports of both configurations and in comparison with observations differ in strength and temporal variability. Similar decadal trends in Agulhas Current transport and Agulhas leakage are linked to the trends in wind forcing.

Towards a coastal ocean forecasting system in Southern Adriatic Northern Ionian seas based on unstructured-grid model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Federico, Ivan; Oddo, Paolo; Pinardi, Nadia; Coppini, Giovanni

2014-05-01

The Southern Adriatic Northern Ionian Forecasting System (SANIFS) operational chain is based on a nesting approach. The large scale model for the entire Mediterranean basin (MFS, Mediterranean Forecasting system, operated by INGV, e.g. Tonani et al. 2008, Oddo et al. 2009) provides lateral open boundary conditions to the regional model for Adriatic and Ionian seas (AIFS, Adriatic Ionian Forecasting System) which provides the open-sea fields (initial conditions and lateral open boundary conditions) to SANIFS. The latter, here presented, is a coastal ocean model based on SHYFEM (Shallow HYdrodynamics Finite Element Model) code, which is an unstructured grid, finite element three-dimensional hydrodynamic model (e.g. Umgiesser et al., 2004, Ferrarin et al., 2013). The SANIFS hydrodynamic model component has been designed to provide accurate information of hydrodynamics and active tracer fields in the coastal waters of Southern Eastern Italy (Apulia, Basilicata and Calabria regions), where the model is characterized by a resolution of about of 200-500 m. The horizontal resolution is also accurate in open-sea areas, where the elements size is approximately 3 km. During the development phase the model has been initialized and forced at the lateral open boundaries through a full nesting strategy directly with the MFS fields. The heat fluxes has been computed by bulk formulae using as input data the operational analyses of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Short range pre-operational forecast tests have been performed in different seasons to evaluate the robustness of the implemented model in different oceanographic conditions. Model results are validated by means of comparison with MFS operational results and observations. The model is able to reproduce the large-scale oceanographic structures of the area (keeping similar structures of MFS in open sea), while in the coastal area significant improvements in terms of reproduced structures and dynamics are evident.

Relationships among North American songbird trends, habitat fragmentation, and landscape occupancy

Treesearch

Therese M. Donovan; Curtis H. Flather

2002-01-01

Fragmentation of breeding habitat has been hypothesized as a cause of population declines in forest-nesting migratory birds. Negative correlations between the degree of fragmentation and bird density or fecundity at local or regional scales support the fragmentation hypothesis. Yet, in spite of reduced fecundity and densities in fragmented systems, many forest-nesting...

Effects of urban sprawl on snags and the abundance and productivity of cavity-nesting birds

Treesearch

Christina M. Blewett; John M. Marzluff

2005-01-01

We investigated the occurrence of, and relationships among, snags and cavity-nesting birds in the rapidly urbanizing region around Seattle, Washington in 2001 and 2002. We measured the density of snags in 49 sites (1-km2 "suburban landscapes" that included built and forested portions), and determined the diameter, height, decay status,...

Beach dynamics and nest distribution of the leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) at Grande Riviere Beach, Trinidad & Tobago.

PubMed

Lum, Lori Lee

2005-05-01

Grande Riviere Beach in Trinidad and Tobago is an important nesting site in the Caribbean for the Critically Endangered leatherback sea turtle, Dermochelys coriacea. Community members were concerned that beach erosion and seasonal river flooding were destroying many of the nests deposited annually and thought that a hatchery was a possible solution. Over the 2001 turtle nesting season, the Institute of Marine Affairs (IMA) assessed the spatial and temporal distribution of nests using the Global Positioning System recorded to reference points, and beach dynamics using permanent bench mark profile stations, to determine areas of high risk and more stable areas for nesting. A total of 1449 leatherback nests were positioned. It was evident that at the start of the season in March, the majority of leatherback nests were deposited at the eastern section of the beach. After May, there was a continuing westward shift in nest distribution as the season progressed until August and beach erosion in the eastern section became predominant. The backshore remained relatively stable along the entire beach throughout the nesting season, and erosion was predominant in the foreshore at the eastern section of the beach, from the middle to the end of the season. Similar trends in accretion and erosion were observed in 2000. River flooding did not occur during the study period or in the previous year. With both high risk and more stable regions for turtle nesting available at Grande Riviere Beach, there was no compelling evidence to justify the need for a hatchery.

Brown-headed cowbird, Molothrus ater, parasitism and abundance in the northern Great Plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Igl, L.D.; Johnson, D.H.

2007-01-01

The Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) reaches its highest abundance in the northern Great Plains, but much of our understanding of cowbird ecology and host-parasite interactions comes from areas outside of this region. We examine cowbird brood parasitism and densities during two studies of breeding birds in the northern Great Plains during 1990-2006. We found 2649 active nests of 75 species, including 746 nonpasserine nests and 1902 passerine nests. Overall, <1% of non-passerine nests and 25% of passerine nests were parasitized by Brown-headed Cowbirds. Although the overall frequency of cowbird parasitism in passerine nests in these two studies is considered moderate, the frequency of multiple parasitism among parasitized nests was heavy (nearly 50%). The mean number of cowbird eggs per parasitized passerine nest was 1.9 ?? 1.2 (SD; range = 1-8 cowbird eggs). The parasitism rates were 9.5% for passerines that typically nest in habitats characterized by woody vegetation, 16.4% for grassland-nesting passerines, 4.7% for passerines known to consistently eject cowbird eggs, and 28.2% for passerines that usually accept cowbird eggs. The Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) was the most commonly parasitized species (43.1 % parasitism, 49.6% multiple parasitism, 71.2% of all cases of parasitism). Passerine nests found within areas of higher female cowbird abundance experienced higher frequencies of cowbird parasitism than those found in areas of lower female cowbird abundance. Densities of female cowbirds were positively related to densities and richness of other birds in the breeding bird community.

Demography of a breeding population of whimbrel (Numenius phaeopus) near Churchill, Manitoba, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perz, Johanna

I used a GIS raster layer of an area in the Churchill, Manitoba region to investigate the effect of breeding habitat on demography and density of Whimbrel from 2010 through 2013. Program MARK was used to quantify adult and daily nest survival. Apparent annual survival of 0.73 +/- 0.06 SE (95% CI = 0.60-0.83) did not significantly differ between sexes or habitats and was lower than expected based on longevity records and estimates for other large-bodied shorebirds. Nest success, corrected for exposure days, was highly variable, ranging from a low of 3% (95% CI = 0-12%) in 2011 to a high of 71% (95% CI = 54-83%) in 2013. The highest rate of nest survival occurred in the spring with the warmest mean temperature. I developed a generalized linear model (GLM) with a negative-binomial distribution from random plots that were surveyed for abundance to extrapolate a local breeding population size of 410 +/- 230 SE and density of 3.2 birds per square km +/- 1.8 SE. The result of my study suggests that other aspects of habitat not captured by the land cover categories may be more important to population dynamics.

Successful nesting by a Bald Eagle pair in prairie grasslands of the Texas Panhandle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boal, G.W.; Giovanni, M.D.; Beall, B.N.

2006-01-01

We observed a breeding Bald Eagle (Haliaeetus leitcocephalus) pair nesting in a short-grass prairie and agricultural community on the southern Great Plains of the Texas Panhandle in 2004 and 2005. The nesting eagles produced 1 fledgling in 2004 and 2 fledglings in 2005. Our assessment of landcover types within a 5-km radius of the nest indicated that grasslands accounted for most of the area (90%), followed by agricultural lands (8%). Black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colonies occupied 2.5% of the area, and single human residences with associated structures (i.e., barns) occupied 2.5 ha in surface area was 51 km from the nest. An analysis of regurgitated castings collected near the nest revealed a mammalian-dominated, breeding-season diet with black-tailed prairie dogs occurring in 80.9% of the castings. Other identified prey included cottontails (Sylvilagus spp., 15.9%), black-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus californicus, 3.2%), pronghorn (Antilocapra americana, 3.2%), and plains pocket gopher (Geomys bursarius, 1.6%). Bird remains were also present in 34.9% of the castings. This is the first reported successful nesting of Bald Eagles in the panhandle region of Texas since 1916; the nest is particularly unique because of its distance from any substantial body of water.

Selection of arboreal termitaria for nesting by cooperatively breeding Micronesian Kingfishers Todiramphus cinnamominus reichenbachii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kesler, Dylan C.; Haig, Susan M.

2005-01-01

Limited nest-site availability appears to be an important factor in the evolution of delayed dispersal and cooperative breeding in some cavity-nesting species. The cooperatively breeding Pohnpei subspecies of Micronesian Kingfisher Todiramphus cinnamominus reichenbachii excavates nest cavities from the nests of arboreal termites Nasutitermes spp., or termitaria. In this first published description of nest-sites for this subspecies, we used surveys, remote sensing and radiotelemetry to evaluate the relationship between nest-site availability and co-operation. Results illustrate that nest termitaria are higher in the forest canopy, larger in volume and occur in areas with more contiguous canopy cover than unused termitaria. Nest termitaria were selected independently of the proximity to forest edges and territory boundaries, and we found no difference in characteristics of termitaria used by cooperative groups and breeding pairs. Logistic regression modelling indicated that termitaria with nest-like characteristics were not limited in abundance, suggesting that neither the prospects of inheriting nesting resources nor limited nest-site abundance are probable explanations for delayed dispersal in the Pohnpei subspecies of Micronesian Kingfisher.

Development of a Kemp’s ridley sea turtle stock assessment model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gallaway, Benny J.; Gazey, William; Caillouet, Charles W.; Plotkin, Pamela T.; Abreu Grobois, F. Alberto; Amos, Anthony F.; Burchfield, Patrick M.; Carthy, Raymond R.; Castro Martinez, Marco A.; Cole, John G.; Coleman, Andrew T.; Cook, Melissa; DiMarco, Steven F.; Epperly, Sheryan P.; Fujiwara, Masami; Gamez, Daniel Gomez; Graham, Gary L.; Griffin, Wade L.; Illescas Martinez, Francisco; Lamont, Margaret M.; Lewison, Rebecca L.; Lohmann, Kenneth J.; Nance, James M.; Pitchford, Jonathan; Putman, Nathan F.; Raborn, Scott W.; Rester, Jeffrey K.; Rudloe, Jack J.; Sarti Martinez, Laura; Schexnayder, Mark; Schmid, Jeffrey R.; Shaver, Donna J.; Slay, Christopher; Tucker, Anton D.; Tumlin, Mandy; Wibbels, Thane; Zapata Najera, Blanca M.

2016-01-01

We developed a Kemp’s ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) stock assessment model to evaluate the relative contributions of conservation efforts and other factors toward this critically endangered species’ recovery. The Kemp’s ridley demographic model developed by the Turtle Expert Working Group (TEWG) in 1998 and 2000 and updated for the binational recovery plan in 2011 was modified for use as our base model. The TEWG model uses indices of the annual reproductive population (number of nests) and hatchling recruitment to predict future annual numbers of nests on the basis of a series of assumptions regarding age and maturity, remigration interval, sex ratios, nests per female, juvenile mortality, and a putative ‘‘turtle excluder device effect’’ multiplier starting in 1990. This multiplier was necessary to fit the number of nests observed in 1990 and later. We added the effects of shrimping effort directly, modified by habitat weightings, as a proxy for all sources of anthropogenic mortality. Additional data included in our model were incremental growth of Kemp’s ridleys marked and recaptured in the Gulf of Mexico, and the length frequency of stranded Kemp’s ridleys. We also added a 2010 mortality factor that was necessary to fit the number of nests for 2010 and later (2011 and 2012). Last, we used an empirical basis for estimating natural mortality, on the basis of a Lorenzen mortality curve and growth estimates. Although our model generated reasonable estimates of annual total turtle deaths attributable to shrimp trawling, as well as additional deaths due to undetermined anthropogenic causes in 2010, we were unable to provide a clear explanation for the observed increase in the number of stranded Kemp’s ridleys in recent years, and subsequent disruption of the species’ exponential growth since the 2009 nesting season. Our consensus is that expanded data collection at the nesting beaches is needed and of high priority, and that 2015 be targeted for the next stock assessment to evaluate the 2010 event using more recent nesting and in-water data.

Ground-nesting marine birds and potential for human disturbance in Glacier Bay National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arimitsu, Mayumi L.; Romano, Marc D.; Piatt, John F.; Piatt, John F.; Gende, S.M.

2004-01-01

Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve contains a diverse assemblage of marine birds that use the area for nesting, foraging and molting. The abundance and diversity of marine bird species in Glacier Bay is unmatched in the region, due in part to the geomorphic and successional characteristics that result in a wide array of habitat types (Robards and others, 2003). The opportunity for proactive management of these species is unique in Glacier Bay National Park because much of the suitable marine bird nesting habitat occurs in areas designated as wilderness. Ground-nesting marine birds are vulnerable to human disturbance wherever visitors can access nest sites during the breeding season. Human disturbance of nest sites can be significant because intense parental care is required for egg and hatchling survival, and repeated disturbance can result in reduced productivity (Leseberg and others, 2000). Temporary nest desertion by breeding birds in disturbed areas can lead to increased predation on eggs and hatchlings by conspecifics or other predators (Bolduc and Guillemette, 2003). Human disturbance of ground-nesting birds may also affect incubation time and adult foraging success, which in turn can alter breeding success (Verhulst and others, 2001). Furthermore, human activity can potentially cause colony failure when disturbance prevents the initiation of nesting (Hatch, 2002). There is management concern about the susceptibility of breeding birds to disturbance from human activities, but little historical data has been collected on the distribution of ground-nesting marine birds in Glacier Bay. This report summarizes results obtained during two years of a three-year study to determine the distribution of ground-nesting marine birds in Glacier Bay, and the potential for human disturbance of those nesting birds.

Patch size and edge proximity are useful predictors of brood parasitism but not nest survival of grassland birds.

PubMed

Benson, Thomas J; Chiavacci, Scott J; Ward, Michael P

2013-06-01

Declines of migratory birds have led to increased focus on causative factors for these declines, including the potential adverse effects of habitat fragmentation on reproductive success. Although numerous studies have addressed how proximity to a habitat edge, patch size, or landscape context influence nest survival or brood parasitism, many have failed to find the purported effects. Furthermore, many have sought to generalize patterns across large geographic areas and habitats. Here, we examined evidence for effects of edge proximity, patch size, and landscape context on nest survival and brood parasitism of grassland birds, a group of conservation concern. The only consistent effect was a positive association between edge proximity and brood parasitism. We examined effects of patch size on nest survival (37 studies) and brood parasitism (30 studies) representing 170 and 97 different estimates, respectively, with a total sample size of > 14000 nests spanning eastern North America. Nest survival weakly increased with patch size in the Great Plains, but not in the Midwestern or Eastern United States, and brood parasitism was inversely related to patch size and consistently greater in the Great Plains. The consistency in brood parasitism relative to nest survival patterns is likely due to parasitism being caused by one species, while nest survival is driven by a diverse and variable suite of nest predators. Often, studies assume that predators responsible for nest predation, the main driver of nest success, either are the same or exhibit the same behaviors across large geographic areas. These results suggest that a better mechanistic understanding of nest predation is needed to provide meaningful conservation recommendations for improving grassland bird productivity, and that the use of general recommendations across large geographic areas should only be undertaken when sufficient data are available from all regions.

Nesting Ecology of Hawksbill Sea Turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) on Utila, Honduras

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damazo, Lindsey Renee Eggers

The hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata) has a circumtropical distribution and plays an important role in maintaining the health of coral reefs. Unfortunately, hawksbill populations have been decimated, and estimated numbers in the Caribbean are less than 10% of populations a century ago. The hawksbill is considered Critically Endangered, and researchers are coordinating worldwide efforts to protect this species. One country where we lack knowledge regarding hawksbills is Honduras. This study aimed to increase our understanding of hawksbill nesting ecology in Caribbean Honduras. Characteristics of hawksbill nesting activity and a nesting beach on the island of Utila were elucidated using satellite telemetry, beach profiling, vegetation surveys, beach monitoring, and nest temperature profiles. We affixed satellite transmitters to two nesting hawksbills, and found the turtles migrated to different countries. One turtle traveled 403 km to a bay in Mexico, and the other traveled 181 km to a Marine Protected Area off Belize. This study presents the first description of hawksbill migration routes from Honduras, facilitating protection efforts for turtles that traverse international waters. To investigate nesting beach and turtle characteristics, we conducted beach monitoring during the 2012 nesting season. Nesting turtle carapace sizes were similar to worldwide values, but hatchlings were heavier. To measure nest temperatures, we placed thermocouple data loggers in four nests and four pseudo-nests. Data suggested metabolic heating may be maintaining nest temperatures above the pivotal temperature. However, large temperature fluctuations corresponding to rainfall from Hurricane Ernesto (as determined using a time series cross-correlation analysis) make it difficult to predict sex ratios, and underscore the impact stochastic events can have on nest temperatures. We created topographic and substrate profiles of the beach, and found it was 475 m long, yet hawksbills preferentially nested along 80 m that differed from the remainder of the beach in having higher elevation and extensive forest cover. This is the first study from Honduras to report a regular nesting population of hawksbills as well as characterize a nesting beach for this species. It provides an important foundation for hawksbill research in Honduras, a region where we have insufficient knowledge to adequately protect this critically endangered species.

Migration, foraging, and residency patterns for Northern Gulf loggerheads: implications of local threats and international movements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hart, Kristen M.; Lamont, Margaret M.; Sartain-Iverson, Autumn R.; Fujisaki, Ikuko

2014-01-01

Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGoM) loggerheads (Caretta caretta) make up one of the smallest subpopulations of this threatened species and have declining nest numbers. We used satellite telemetry and a switching state-space model to identify distinct foraging areas used by 59 NGoM loggerheads tagged during 2010–2013. We tagged turtles after nesting at three sites, 1 in Alabama (Gulf Shores; n = 37) and 2 in Florida (St. Joseph Peninsula; n = 20 and Eglin Air Force Base; n = 2). Peak migration time was 22 July to 9 August during which >40% of turtles were in migration mode; the mean post-nesting migration period was 23.0 d (±13.8 d SD). After displacement from nesting beaches, 44 turtles traveled to foraging sites where they remained resident throughout tracking durations. Selected foraging locations were variable distances from tagging sites, and in 5 geographic regions; no turtles selected foraging sites outside the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). Foraging sites delineated using 50% kernel density estimation were located a mean distance of 47.6 km from land and in water with mean depth of −32.5 m; other foraging sites, delineated using minimum convex polygons, were located a mean distance of 43.0 km from land and in water with a mean depth of −24.9 m. Foraging sites overlapped with known trawling activities, oil and gas extraction activities, and the footprint of surface oiling during the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill (n = 10). Our results highlight the year-round use of habitats in the GoM by loggerheads that nest in the NGoM. Our findings indicate that protection of females in this subpopulation requires both international collaborations and management of threats that spatially overlap with distinct foraging habitats.

Migration, foraging, and residency patterns for Northern Gulf loggerheads: implications of local threats and international movements.

PubMed

Hart, Kristen M; Lamont, Margaret M; Sartain, Autumn R; Fujisaki, Ikuko

2014-01-01

Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGoM) loggerheads (Caretta caretta) make up one of the smallest subpopulations of this threatened species and have declining nest numbers. We used satellite telemetry and a switching state-space model to identify distinct foraging areas used by 59 NGoM loggerheads tagged during 2010-2013. We tagged turtles after nesting at three sites, 1 in Alabama (Gulf Shores; n = 37) and 2 in Florida (St. Joseph Peninsula; n = 20 and Eglin Air Force Base; n = 2). Peak migration time was 22 July to 9 August during which >40% of turtles were in migration mode; the mean post-nesting migration period was 23.0 d (±13.8 d SD). After displacement from nesting beaches, 44 turtles traveled to foraging sites where they remained resident throughout tracking durations. Selected foraging locations were variable distances from tagging sites, and in 5 geographic regions; no turtles selected foraging sites outside the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). Foraging sites delineated using 50% kernel density estimation were located a mean distance of 47.6 km from land and in water with mean depth of -32.5 m; other foraging sites, delineated using minimum convex polygons, were located a mean distance of 43.0 km from land and in water with a mean depth of -24.9 m. Foraging sites overlapped with known trawling activities, oil and gas extraction activities, and the footprint of surface oiling during the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill (n = 10). Our results highlight the year-round use of habitats in the GoM by loggerheads that nest in the NGoM. Our findings indicate that protection of females in this subpopulation requires both international collaborations and management of threats that spatially overlap with distinct foraging habitats.

Effect of nesting environment on incubation temperature and hatching success of Morelet's crocodile (Crocodylus moreletii) in an urban lake of Southeastern Mexico.

PubMed

López-Luna, Marco A; Hidalgo-Mihart, Mircea G; Aguirre-León, Gustavo; González-Ramón, Mariana Del C; Rangel-Mendoza, Judith A

2015-01-01

Incubation temperature is an important aspect in terms of biological performance among crocodiles, and several controlled experiments have demonstrated a significant relationship between incubation temperature, success in hatching and survival of hatchlings. However, a few studies have tested these relationships in the wild. The objective of this study was to determine the relationship of nest characteristics and environment (hatch year, nest basal area and height, clutch size, distance to shore line, and vegetation cover), to incubation temperature and hatching success among Morelet's crocodile (Crocodylus moreletii). The study was carried out during the nesting seasons of Morelet's crocodile, from 2007 to 2009 in the Laguna de Las Ilusiones, an urban lake located in Villahermosa, Tabasco, Mexico. We physically characterized 18 nests and inserted a temperature data logger in each nest chamber. At the end of the nesting season and prior to hatching, we recovered the crocodile eggs and data loggers and calculated hatching success, under laboratory conditions. We related the environmental variables of the nest with the mean and fluctuation (standard deviation) of nest temperature, using linear models. We also related the environmental variables affecting the nest, to mean nest temperature and fluctuation in incubation temperature and to hatching success, using linear models. Although we found differences in incubation temperature between nests, mean incubation temperature did not differ between years, but there were differences in nest thermal fluctuation between years. The mean incubation temperature for 11 nests (61.1%) was lower than the suggested Female-Male pivotal temperature (producing 50% of each sex) for this species, and all hatchlings obtained were males. There were no differences in clutch size between years, but hatching success varied. Our study indicates that hatching success depends on certain environmental variables and nest conditions to which the eggs are subjected, including season, nest size and clutch size. We also discuss the importance of the fluctuation of incubation temperature on hatching success and sex determination. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increasing nest predation will be insufficient to maintain polar bear body condition in the face of sea ice loss.

PubMed

Dey, Cody J; Richardson, Evan; McGeachy, David; Iverson, Samuel A; Gilchrist, Hugh G; Semeniuk, Christina A D

2017-05-01

Climate change can influence interspecific interactions by differentially affecting species-specific phenology. In seasonal ice environments, there is evidence that polar bear predation of Arctic bird eggs is increasing because of earlier sea ice breakup, which forces polar bears into nearshore terrestrial environments where Arctic birds are nesting. Because polar bears can consume a large number of nests before becoming satiated, and because they can swim between island colonies, they could have dramatic influences on seabird and sea duck reproductive success. However, it is unclear whether nest foraging can provide an energetic benefit to polar bear populations, especially given the capacity of bird populations to redistribute in response to increasing predation pressure. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit agent-based model of the predator-prey relationship between polar bears and common eiders, a common and culturally important bird species for northern peoples. Our model is composed of two types of agents (polar bear agents and common eider hen agents) whose movements and decision heuristics are based on species-specific bioenergetic and behavioral ecological principles, and are influenced by historical and extrapolated sea ice conditions. Our model reproduces empirical findings that polar bear predation of bird nests is increasing and predicts an accelerating relationship between advancing ice breakup dates and the number of nests depredated. Despite increases in nest predation, our model predicts that polar bear body condition during the ice-free period will continue to decline. Finally, our model predicts that common eider nests will become more dispersed and will move closer to the mainland in response to increasing predation, possibly increasing their exposure to land-based predators and influencing the livelihood of local people that collect eider eggs and down. These results show that predator-prey interactions can have nonlinear responses to changes in climate and provides important predictions of ecological change in Arctic ecosystems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Association between nighttime artificial light pollution and sea turtle nest density along Florida coast: A geospatial study using VIIRS remote sensing data.

PubMed

Hu, Zhiyong; Hu, Hongda; Huang, Yuxia

2018-08-01

Artificial lighting at night has becoming a new type of pollution posing an important anthropogenic environmental pressure on organisms. The objective of this research was to examine the potential association between nighttime artificial light pollution and nest densities of the three main sea turtle species along Florida beaches, including green turtles, loggerheads, and leatherbacks. Sea turtle survey data was obtained from the "Florida Statewide Nesting Beach Survey program". We used the new generation of satellite sensor "Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)" (version 1 D/N Band) nighttime annual average radiance composite image data. We defined light pollution as artificial light brightness greater than 10% of the natural sky brightness above 45° of elevation (>1.14 × 10 -11 Wm -2 sr -1 ). We fitted a generalized linear model (GLM), a GLM with eigenvectors spatial filtering (GLM-ESF), and a generalized estimating equations (GEE) approach for each species to examine the potential correlation of nest density with light pollution. Our models are robust and reliable in terms of the ability to deal with data distribution and spatial autocorrelation (SA) issues violating model assumptions. All three models found that nest density is significantly negatively correlated with light pollution for each sea turtle species: the higher light pollution, the lower nest density. The two spatially extended models (GLM-ESF and GEE) show that light pollution influences nest density in a descending order from green turtles, to loggerheads, and then to leatherbacks. The research findings have an implication for sea turtle conservation policy and ordinance making. Near-coastal lights-out ordinances and other approaches to shield lights can protect sea turtles and their nests. The VIIRS DNB light data, having significant improvements over comparable data by its predecessor, the DMSP-OLS, shows promise for continued and improved research about ecological effects of artificial light pollution. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Myrmecophagy by Yellowstone grizzly bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mattson, D.J.

2001-01-01

I used data collected during a study of radio-marked grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) in the Yellowstone region from 1977 to 1992 to investigate myrmecophagy by this population. Although generally not an important source of energy for the bears (averaging 8 mm long) nested in logs over small ants (6 mm long) nested under stones. Optimal conditions for consumption of ants occurred on the warmest sites with ample substrate suitable for ant nests. For ants in mounds, this occurred at low elevations at non-forested sites. For ants in logs, this occurred at low elevations or on southerly aspects where there was abundant, large-diameter, well-decomposed woody debris under an open forest canopy. Grizzly bears selected moderately decomposed logs 4a??5 dm in diameter at midpoint. Ants will likely become a more important food for Yellowstone's grizzly bears as currently important foods decline, owing to disease and warming of the regional climate.

Projected response of an endangered marine turtle population to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saba, Vincent S.; Stock, Charles A.; Spotila, James R.; Paladino, Frank V.; Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián

2012-11-01

Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on individual species and populations is essential for the stewardship of ecosystems and biodiversity. Critically endangered leatherback turtles in the eastern Pacific Ocean are excellent candidates for such an assessment because their sensitivity to contemporary climate variability has been substantially studied. If incidental fisheries mortality is eliminated, this population still faces the challenge of recovery in a rapidly changing climate. Here we combined an Earth system model, climate model projections assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and a population dynamics model to estimate a 7% per decade decline in the Costa Rica nesting population over the twenty-first century. Whereas changes in ocean conditions had a small effect on the population, the ~2.5°C warming of the nesting beach was the primary driver of the decline through reduced hatching success and hatchling emergence rate. Hatchling sex ratio did not substantially change. Adjusting nesting phenology or changing nesting sites may not entirely prevent the decline, but could offset the decline rate. However, if future observations show a long-term decline in hatching success and emergence rate, anthropogenic climate mitigation of nests (for example, shading, irrigation) may be able to preserve the nesting population.

Strategies for nest-site selection by king eiders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bentzen, R.L.; Powell, A.N.; Suydam, R.S.

2009-01-01

Nest site selection is a critical component of reproduction and has presumably evolved in relation to predation, local resources, and microclimate. We investigated nest-site choice by king eiders (Somateria spectabilis) on the coastal plain of northern Alaska, USA, 2003-2005. We hypothesized that nest-site selection is driven by predator avoidance and that a variety of strategies including concealment, seclusion, and conspecific or inter-specific nest defense might lead to improved nesting success. We systematically searched wetland basins for king eider nests and measured habitat and social variables at nests (n = 212) and random locations (n = 493). King eiders made use of both secluded and concealed breeding strategies; logistic regression models revealed that females selected nests close to water, on islands, and in areas with high willow (Salix spp.) cover but did not select sites near conspecific or glaucous gull (Larus hyperboreus) nests. The most effective nest-placement strategy may vary depending on density and types of nest predators; seclusion is likely a mammalian-predator avoidance tactic whereas concealment may provide protection from avian predators. We recommend that managers in northern Alaska attempt to maintain wetland basins with islands and complex shorelines to provide potential nest sites in the vicinity of water. ?? The Wildlife Society.

Genesis of Pre-Hurricane Felix (2007). Part I: The Role of the Easterly Wave Critical Layer

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

the boundary layer does not overcome the positive entropy flux from the ocean surface. As suggested by Montgomery et al. (2006), cold pools of...Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a high-resolution nested grid configuration that permits the representation of cloud system processes...from the jet level to the top of the atmospheric boundary layer. The region of a quasi-closed Lagrangian circulation within the wave pouch provides a

Landscape alterations influence differential habitat use of nesting buteos and ravens within sagebrush ecosystem: implications for transmission line development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Howe, Kristy B.; Casazza, Michael L.; Delehanty, David J.

2014-01-01

A goal in avian ecology is to understand factors that influence differences in nesting habitat and distribution among species, especially within changing landscapes. Over the past 2 decades, humans have altered sagebrush ecosystems as a result of expansion in energy production and transmission. Our primary study objective was to identify differences in the use of landscape characteristics and natural and anthropogenic features by nesting Common Ravens (Corvus corax) and 3 species of buteo (Swainson's Hawk [Buteo swainsoni], Red-tailed Hawk [B. jamaicensis], and Ferruginous Hawk [B. regalis]) within a sagebrush ecosystem in southeastern Idaho. During 2007–2009, we measured multiple environmental factors associated with 212 nest sites using data collected remotely and in the field. We then developed multinomial models to predict nesting probabilities by each species and predictive response curves based on model-averaged estimates. We found differences among species related to nesting substrate (natural vs. anthropogenic), agriculture, native grassland, and edge (interface of 2 cover types). Most important, ravens had a higher probability of nesting on anthropogenic features (0.80) than the other 3 species (Artemisia spp.), favoring increased numbers of nesting ravens and fewer nesting Ferruginous Hawks. Our results indicate that habitat alterations, fragmentation, and forthcoming disturbances anticipated with continued energy development in sagebrush steppe ecosystems can lead to predictable changes in raptor and raven communities.

Applications of a simulation model to decisions in mallard management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cowardin, L.M.; Johnson, D.H.; Shaffer, T.L.; Sparling, D.W.

1988-01-01

A system comprising simulation models and data bases for habitat availability and nest success rates was used to predict results from a mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) management plan and to compare six management methods with a control. Individual treatments in the applications included land purchase for waterfowl production, wetland easement purchase, lease of uplands for waterfowl management, cropland retirement, use of no-till winter wheat, delayed cutting of alfalfa, installation of nest baskets, nesting island construction, and use of predator-resistant fencing.The simulations predicted that implementation of the management plan would increase recruits by 24%. Nest baskets were the most effective treatment, accounting for 20.4% of the recruits. No-till winter wheat was the second most effective, accounting for 5.9% of the recruits. Wetland loss due to drainage would cause an 11% loss of breeding population in 10 years.The models were modified to account for migrational homing. The modification indicated that migrational homing would enhance the effects of management. Nest success rates were critical contributions to individual management methods. The most effective treatments, such as nest baskets, had high success rates and affected a large portion of the breeding population.Economic analyses indicated that nest baskets would be the most economical of the three techniques tested. The applications indicated that the system is a useful tool to aid management decisions, but data are scarce for several important variables. Basic research will be required to adequately model the effect of migrational homing and density dependence on production. The comprehensive nature of predictions desired by managers will also require that production models like the one described here be extended to encompass the entire annual cycle of waterfowl.

A model of northern pintail productivity and population growth rate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Grand, James B.; Rockwell, Robert F.

1998-01-01

Our objective was to synthesize individual components of reproductive ecology into a single estimate of productivity and to assess the relative effects of survival and productivity on population dynamics. We used information on nesting ecology, renesting potential, and duckling survival of northern pintails (Anas acuta) collected on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, 1991-95, to model the number of ducklings produced under a range of nest success and duckling survival probabilities. Using average values of 25% nest success, 11% duckling survival, and 56% renesting probability from our study population, we calculated that all young in our population were produced by 13% of the breeding females, and that early-nesting females produced more young than later-nesting females. Further, we calculated, on average, that each female produced only 0.16 young females/nesting season. We combined these results with estimates of first-year and adult survival to examine the growth rate (X) of the population and the relative contributions of these demographic parameters to that growth rate. Contrary to aerial survey data, the population projection model suggests our study population is declining rapidly (X = 0.6969). The relative effects on population growth rate were 0.1175 for reproductive success, 0.1175 for first-year survival, and 0.8825 for adult survival. Adult survival had the greatest influence on X for our population, and this conclusion was robust over a range of survival and productivity estimates. Given published estimates of annual survival for adult females (61%), our model suggested nest success and duckling survival need to increase to approximately 40% to achieve population stability. We discuss reasons for the apparent discrepancy in population trends between our model and aerial surveys in terms of bias in productivity and survival estimates.

Evaluation of high-resolution climate simulations for West Africa using COSMO-CLM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieng, Diarra; Smiatek, Gerhard; Bliefernicht, Jan; Laux, Patrick; Heinzeller, Dominikus; Kunstmann, Harald; Sarr, Abdoulaye; Thierno Gaye, Amadou

2017-04-01

The climate change modeling activities within the WASCAL program (West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use) concentrate on the provisioning of future climate change scenario data at high spatial and temporal resolution and quality in West Africa. Such information is highly required for impact studies in water resources and agriculture for the development of reliable climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this study, we present a detailed evaluation of high simulation runs based on the regional climate model, COSMO model in CLimate Mode (COSMO-CLM). The model is applied over West Africa in a nested approach with two simulation domains at 0.44° and 0.11° resolution using reanalysis data from ERA-Interim (1979-2013). The models runs are compared to several state-of-the-art observational references (e.g., CRU, CHIRPS) including daily precipitation data provided by national meteorological services in West Africa. Special attention is paid to the reproduction of the dynamics of the West African Monsoon (WMA), its associated precipitation patterns and crucial agro-climatological indices such as the onset of the rainy season. In addition, first outcomes of the regional climate change simulations driven by MPI-ESM-LR are presented for a historical period (1980 to 2010) and two future periods (2020 to 2050, 2070 to 2100). The evaluation of the reanalysis runs shows that COSMO-CLM is able to reproduce the observed major climate characteristics including the West African Monsoon within the range of comparable RCM evaluations studies. However, substantial uncertainties remain, especially in the Sahel zone. The added value of the higher resolution of the nested run is reflected in a smaller bias in extreme precipitation statistics with respect to the reference data.

Simulation of ozone production in a complex circulation region using nested grids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taghavi, M.; Cautenet, S.; Foret, G.

2003-07-01

During ESCOMPTE precampaign (15 June to 10 July 2000), three days of intensive pollution (IOP0) have been observed and simulated. The comprehensive RAMS model, version 4.3, coupled online with a chemical module including 29 species, has been used to follow the chemistry of the zone polluted over southern France. This online method can be used because the code is paralleled and the SGI 3800 computer is very powerful. Two runs have been performed: run1 with one grid and run2 with two nested grids. The redistribution of simulated chemical species (ozone, carbon monoxide, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides) was compared to aircraft measurements and surface stations. The 2-grid run has given substantially better results than the one-grid run only because the former takes the outer pollutants into account. This online method helps to explain dynamics and to retrieve the chemical species redistribution with a good agreement.

Simulation of ozone production in a complex circulation region using nested grids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taghavi, M.; Cautenet, S.; Foret, G.

2004-06-01

During the ESCOMPTE precampaign (summer 2000, over Southern France), a 3-day period of intensive observation (IOP0), associated with ozone peaks, has been simulated. The comprehensive RAMS model, version 4.3, coupled on-line with a chemical module including 29 species, is used to follow the chemistry of the polluted zone. This efficient but time consuming method can be used because the code is installed on a parallel computer, the SGI 3800. Two runs are performed: run 1 with a single grid and run 2 with two nested grids. The simulated fields of ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide are compared with aircraft and surface station measurements. The 2-grid run looks substantially better than the run with one grid because the former takes the outer pollutants into account. This on-line method helps to satisfactorily retrieve the chemical species redistribution and to explain the impact of dynamics on this redistribution.

Critical region within 22q11.2 linked to higher rate of autism spectrum disorder.

PubMed

Clements, Caitlin C; Wenger, Tara L; Zoltowski, Alisa R; Bertollo, Jennifer R; Miller, Judith S; de Marchena, Ashley B; Mitteer, Lauren M; Carey, John C; Yerys, Benjamin E; Zackai, Elaine H; Emanuel, Beverly S; McDonald-McGinn, Donna M; Schultz, Robert T

2017-01-01

Previous studies have reported no clear critical region for medical comorbidities in children with deletions or duplications of 22q11.2. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether individuals with small nested deletions or duplications of the LCR-A to B region of 22q11.2 show an elevated rate of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) compared to individuals with deletions or duplications that do not include this region. We recruited 46 patients with nested deletions ( n  = 33) or duplications ( n  = 13) of 22q11.2, including LCR-A to B ( n del  = 11), LCR-A to C ( n del  = 4), LCR-B to D ( n del  = 14; n dup  = 8), LCR-C to D ( n del  = 4; n dup  = 2), and smaller nested regions ( n  = 3). Parent questionnaire, record review, and, for a subset, in-person evaluation were used for ASD diagnostic classification. Rates of ASD in individuals with involvement of LCR-B to LCR-D were compared with Fisher's exact test to LCR-A to LCR-B for deletions, and to a previously published sample of LCR-A to LCR-D for duplications. The rates of medical comorbidities and psychiatric diagnoses were determined from questionnaires and chart review. We also report group mean differences on psychiatric questionnaires. Individuals with deletions involving LCR-A to B showed a 39-44% rate of ASD compared to 0% in individuals whose deletions did not involve LCR-A to B. We observed similar rates of medical comorbidities in individuals with involvement of LCR-A to B and LCR-B to D for both duplications and deletions, consistent with prior studies. Children with nested deletions of 22q11.2 may be at greater risk for autism spectrum disorder if the region includes LCR-A to LCR-B. Replication is needed.

When are goshawks not there? Is a single visit enough to infer absence at occupied nest areas? Journal of Raptor Research

Treesearch

Douglas A. Boyce; Patricia L. Kennedy; Paul Beier; Michael F. Ingraldi; Susie R. MacVean; Melissa S. Siders; John R. Squires; Brian Woodbridge

2005-01-01

We tested the efficacy of three methods (historical nest search, broadcast search, and tree transect search) for detecting presence of the Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis) at occupied nest areas during the 1994 breeding season using only a single visit to a previously known nest area. We used detection rates in a probability model to determine how many...

Regional climate simulations over complex topography using WRF: Andalusian present climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Argüeso, D.; Hidalgo-Muñoz, J. M.; Calandria-Hernández, D.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.; Castro-Díez, Y.

2010-09-01

In this study three WRF simulations were carried out and analyzed to assess its accuracy to describe the main climate features of Southern Spain in terms of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation. Present climate was represented by the last 30 year of the 20th Century (1970-1999). The model was evaluated using an observational network distributed throughout Andalusia that comprised both temperatures and precipitation. Since comparison between site-specific measurements and model grid points is definitely troublesome due to differences in spatial-scale, a multi-step regionalization strategy was adopted to upscale observational information. This is of particular importance when studying complex topography regions such as Andalusia, with a wide range of climate conditions in a relative small area. Additionally, WRF outputs were also compared with SPAIN02, a 20-km resolution gridded dataset of precipitation for further validation of the model performance. The model set up consisted in two domains with one-way nesting and spectral nudging. The target domain has a resolution of 10km with 136 by 136 points covering the whole Iberian Peninsula and nested in a coarser domain of 30-km resolution and 130 by 120 grid points. Both domains have 35 vertical levels. Three different driving data were used to provide the boundary conditions, one reanalysis (ERA-40) and two control runs from different General Circulation Models (ECHAM5 and CCSM 3.0). A conservative 7-month spin-up period was added to the 30-year simulation so that dependence on initial conditions can be completely removed. Physics options were chosen on the basis of previous parameterization sensitivity tests over Andalusia that led to a compromise configuration that adequately describes the different subclimates. Probability distributions of daily values as well as monthly statistics were examined to determine the uncertainties associated to each variable and take them into consideration for future regional high-resolution projections of climate change scenarios. These analyses permitted to conclude that WRF is an extremely useful tool due to the significant value-added information produced with respect to the driving data. Nonetheless, according to differences in performance between regions it has also been shown that results must be interpreted carefully depending on the region characteristics. Acknowledgements: The Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, with additional support from the European Community Funds (FEDER), project CGL2007-61151/CLI, and the Regional Government of Andalusia project P06-RNM-01622, have financed this study.

Sex Differences in the Effects of Captivity on Hippocampus Size in Brown-Headed Cowbirds (Molothrus ater obscurus)

PubMed Central

Day, Lainy B.; Guerra, Marjorie; Schlinger, Barney A.; Rothstein, Stephen I.

2010-01-01

In brood parasitic cowbirds, hippocampus (Hp) size is correlated with environmental spatial memory demands. Searching for host nests is the presumed causal factor influencing cowbird Hp size, because Hp volumes vary across species, sexes, and seasons according to nest-searching participation. Brown-headed cowbirds have female-only nest searching and, at least in the eastern subspecies, a larger Hp in females than in males, suggesting that nest searching influences cowbird Hp size. We predicted that female brown-headed cowbirds housed in aviaries lacking host nests would have a smaller Hp than wild-caught females whereas males would be unaffected. We found that the Hp was smaller in captive females, but not males, compared to their wild-caught counterparts. This did not appear to be due to general effects of an impoverished environment on all brain regions. Our results imply that interruption of nest searching in cowbirds prevents seasonal increase in Hp size in females. Future studies should isolate which behavioral differences between wild and captive birds contributed to captivity-induced changes in Hp volume in females while not affecting males. PMID:18513123

Nests, eggs, and nestlings of the Restinga Antwren Formicivora littoralis (Aves: Thamnophilidae).

PubMed

Chaves, Flávia G; Vecchi, Maurício B; Laurindo, Thiago F S; Alves, Maria Alice S

2013-01-01

We describe the nest, eggs, and nestlings of the Restinga Antwren (Formicivora littoralis), an endangered bird of Restinga ecosystem (sandy coastal plain vegetation) that is endemic to Rio de Janeiro state. Twelve nests were found at the edges of trails or natural gaps at Massambaba Restinga region, in different supporting plants and heights from the ground (X ± SD 1.27 ± 0.97 m, range 0.27 to 3.45 m). Nests were cup-shaped and were in horizontal forks attached to branches at three to five points with whitish, soft, and thin cotton-like vegetable fiber. The nests' cup shape and measurements were similar to congeneric species, but nest material was different. Eggs were white with brown spots concentrated on the large end or around the middle, giving the appearance of a rough brown ring. Their mean (± SD) minimum diameter was 13.1 ± 0.34 mm, with maximum diameter of 18.0 ± 0.38 mm, and mass of 1.7 ± 0.18 g (n = 8). We found two nestlings completely naked on their first day after hatching.

Risk of predation and weather events affect nest site selection by sympatric Pacific (Gavia pacifica) and Yellow-billed (Gavia adamsii) loons in Arctic habitats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haynes, Trevor B.; Schmutz, Joel A.; Lindberg, Mark S.; Rosenberger, Amanda E.

2014-01-01

Pacific (Gavia pacifica) and Yellow-billed (G. adamsii) loons nest sympatrically in Arctic regions. These related species likely face similar constraints and requirements for nesting success; therefore, use of similar habitats and direct competition for nesting habitat is likely. Both of these loon species must select a breeding lake that provides suitable habitat for nesting and raising chicks; however, characteristics of nest site selection by either species on interior Arctic lakes remains poorly understood. Here, logistic regression was used to compare structural and habitat characteristics of all loon nest locations with random points from lakes on the interior Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska. Results suggest that both loon species select nest sites to avoid predation and exposure to waves and shifting ice. Loon nest sites were more likely to be on islands and peninsulas (odds ratio = 16.13, 95% CI = 4.64–56.16) than mainland shoreline, which may help loons avoid terrestrial predators. Further, nest sites had a higher degree of visibility (mean degrees of visibility to 100 and 200 m) of approaching predators than random points (odds ratio = 2.57, 95% CI = 1.22–5.39). Nests were sheltered from exposure, having lower odds of being exposed to prevailing winds (odds ratio = 0.34, 95% CI = 0.13–0.92) and lower odds of having high fetch values (odds ratio = 0.46, 95% CI = 0.22–0.96). Differences between Pacific and Yellow-billed loon nesting sites were subtle, suggesting that both species have similar general nest site requirements. However, Yellow-billed Loons nested at slightly higher elevations and were more likely to nest on peninsulas than Pacific Loons. Pacific Loons constructed built up nests from mud and vegetation, potentially in response to limited access to suitable shoreline due to other territorial loons. Results suggest that land managers wishing to protect habitats for these species should focus on lakes with islands as well as shorelines sheltered from exposure to prevailing wind and ice patterns.

The Rocky Mountain population of the western Canada goose: its distribution, habitats, and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krohn, William B.; Bizeau, Elwood G.

1980-01-01

The western Canada goose (Branta canadensis moffitti) was divided into a Rocky Mountain population (RMP) and a Pacific population (PP) on the basis of band recovery patterns examined in this study and recovery data from other investigators. Habitat information obtained from nine cooperating wildlife agencies within the RMP's range provided a base line for evaluating future changes in nesting, molting, and wintering areas. The habitat inventory indicated that none of the seasonal habitats were currently limiting the size of the RMP. The RMP's range is divided into 15 reference areas and these are briefly described. Past studies of Canada geese in the Intermountain Region are reviewed. Topics covered in the discussion of breeding biology are nesting chronology, spring population composition, breeding age, clutch size, nesting success. artificial nesting structures, and gosling survival. Much of the mortality of Canada geese occurs before the birds are fledged. Man-made nesting structures reduce losses during incubation. but research is needed on the relations between brooding sites and gosling survival. Some western Canada geese, mainly prebreeders and unsuccessful nesters, make molt migrations to and from molting areas during and after the brood-rearing season. More than half of these molt-migrants are yearlings too young to nest; there are indications that even some successful nesters leave nesting areas to molt before the fledging of their offspring. Geese 2 years old or older may serve as guides to traditional molting areas for the first-time migrants (i.e., yearlings). Lack of disturbance appears to influence selection of specific molting areas within the nesting range of moffitti, whereas movements of molters out of the Intermountain Region may be related to the evolution of this subspecies. Apparently. molters of both the PP and RMP that leave the Region go to the Northwest Territories of Canada. Although the taxonomic status of moffitti as related to the giant Canada goose (B. c. maxima) is unclear. these two subspecies are closely related. as evidenced by similar molt migrations to subarctic Canada. similar blood serum proteins. and only dinal differences in body size ,!!nd color. Mean annual survival rates for birds banded on nesting areas averaged 53 ? 2% (X ? SE) for immatures and 64 ? 1 % for adults. Mean annual survival rates of adults captured on molting areas averaged 70 ? 1 %. Sport hunting accounts for more than 86% of the mortality of fledged Rocky Mountain geese. and hunting may limit the population's growth. Because the number of waterfowl hunters in the Rocky Mountain West is increasing, the continued expansion or future maintenance of the RMP may require more restrictive hunting regulations. Other management recommendations include the refinement and standardization of spring and winter aerial surveys, and more accurate age and sex determinations when geese are banded and color-marked.

Sources of variation in survival of breeding female wood ducks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartke, Kevin M.; Grand, J.B.; Hepp, G.R.; Folk, T.H.

2006-01-01

In waterfowl, reproduction is physiologically demanding and females are exposed to varying risks of mortality at different periods of the breeding cycle. Moreover, differences among females may influence survival within breeding periods. We captured and fitted female Wood Ducks (Aix sponsa) with radio-transmitters before nest initiation during two breeding seasons to estimate survival and investigate sources of variation in survival. We partitioned the breeding season into three periods (preincubation, incubation, postnesting) according to breeding status of individual females, and used information-theoretic methods to compare models in which daily survival varied among periods, between successful and failed nesting females, and with parameters describing individual heterogeneity. Our analysis suggested that daily survival was best modeled as a function of breeding period, differences between successful and failed nesting females during postnesting, and early incubation body condition of successful females during post-nesting. Model-averaged daily survival was 0.9988 (95% CL: 0.9963-0.9996) during preincubation and 1.0 during incubation. Postnesting daily survival was 1.0 for failed nesting females and 0.9948 (0.9773-0.9988) for successful females, suggesting a trade-off between current reproduction and survival. Female age, body condition at capture, nest initiation date, and brood size generally were not useful for explaining variation in survival. Only early incubation body condition was important for modeling survival of successful females during postnesting; however, weight of evidence was limited and the effect on survival was weak. Mortality was greatest for females during preincubation and for females that nested successfully. Results support the hypothesis that brood care is costly for females. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.

A Data-Model Comparison over Europe using a new 2000-yr Summer Temperature Reconstruction from the PAGES 2k Regional Network and Last-Millennium GCM Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smerdon, Jason; Werner, Johannes; Fernandez-Donado, Laura; Buntgen, Ulf; Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik; Esper, Jan; Fidel Gonzalez-Rouco, J.; Luterbacher, Juerg; McCarroll, Danny; Wagner, Sebastian; Wahl, Eugene; Wanner, Heinz; Zorita, Eduardo

2013-04-01

A new reconstruction of European summer (JJA) land temperatures is presented and compared to 37 forced transient simulations of the last millennium from coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). The reconstructions are derived from eleven annually resolved tree-ring and documentary records from ten European countries/regions, compiled as part of the Euro_Med working group contribution to the PAGES 2k Regional Network. Records were selected based upon their summer temperature signal, annual resolution, and time-continuous sampling. All tree-ring data were detrended using the Regional Curve Standardization (RCS) method to retain low-frequency variance in the resulting mean chronologies. A nested Composite-Plus-Scale (CPS) mean temperature reconstruction extending from 138 B.C.E. to 2003 C.E. was derived using nine nests reflecting the availability of predictors back in time. Each nest was calculated using a weighted composite based on the correlation of each proxy with the CRUTEM4v mean European JJA land temperature (35°-70°N, 10°W-40°E). The CPS methodology was implemented using a sliding calibration period, initially extending from 1850-1953 C.E. and incrementing by one year until reaching the final period of 1900-2003 C.E. Within each calibration step, the 50 years excluded from calibration were used for validation. Validation statistics across all reconstruction ensemble members within each nest indicate skillful reconstructions (RE: 0.42-0.64; CE: 0.26-0.54) and are all above the maximum validation statistics achieved in an ensemble of red noise benchmarking experiments. A gridded (5°x5°) European summer (JJA) temperature reconstruction back to 750 C.E. was derived using Bayesian inference together with a localized stochastic description of the underlying processes. Instrumental data are JJA means from the 5° European land grid cells in the CRUTEM4v dataset. Predictive experiments using the full proxy data were made, resulting in a multivariate distribution of temperature reconstructions from 750-2003 C.E. The mean of this distribution is the optimal estimate of the gridded JJA temperature anomalies and its width provides objective reconstruction uncertainties. The derived reconstruction is compared to withheld instrumental and proxy data to evaluate reconstruction skill on decadal-to-centennial time scales. A comparison between the mean Bayesian and CPS reconstructions indicates remarkable agreement, with a correlation during their period of overlap of 0.95. In both the Bayesian and CPS reconstructions, warm periods during the 1st, 2nd, and 7th-12th centuries compare to similar warm summer temperatures during the mid 20th century, although the 2003 summer remains the warmest single summer over the duration of the reconstructions. A relative period of cold summer temperatures is also noted from the 14th-19th centuries, consistent with the expected timing of the Little Ice Age. Comparisons between the reconstructions and the 37-member ensemble of millennium-length forced transient simulations from CGCMs, including eleven simulations from the collection of CMIP5/PMIP3 last-millennium experiments, indicate good regional agreement between reconstructions and models. Based on the separation of simulations into strong or weak scaling of total solar irradiance (TSI) forcing over the last millennium, there is some evidence that there is better agreement with the ensemble using strong TSI as forcing.

SPECTRAL INTENSITIES OF ANTIPROTONS AND THE NESTED LEAKY-BOX MODEL FOR COSMIC RAYS IN THE GALAXY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cowsik, R.; Madziwa-Nussinov, T., E-mail: cowsik@physics.wustl.edu

2016-08-20

In this paper we note that the spectral intensities of antiprotons observed in Galactic cosmic rays in the energy range ∼1–300 GeV by BESS, PAMELA, and AMS instruments display nearly the same spectral shape as that generated by primary cosmic rays through their interaction with matter in the interstellar medium, without any significant modifications. More importantly, a constant residence time of ∼2.3 ± 0.7 million years in the Galactic volume, independent of the energy of cosmic rays, matches the observed intensities. A small additional component of secondary antiprotons in the energy range below 10 GeV, generated in cocoon-like regions surroundingmore » the cosmic-ray sources, seems to be present. We discuss this result in the context of observations of other secondary components such as positrons and boron, and the bounds on anisotropy of cosmic rays. In the nested leaky-box model the spectral intensities of antiprotons and positrons can be interpreted as secondary products of cosmic-ray interactions.« less

Transferability of habitat suitability models for nesting woodpeckers associated with wildfire

Treesearch

Quresh S. Latif; Vicki Saab; Jeff P. Hollenbeck; Jonathan G. Dudley

2016-01-01

Following wildfire, forest managers are challenged with meeting both socioeconomic demands (e.g., salvage logging) and mandates requiring habitat conservation for disturbance-associated wildlife (e.g., woodpeckers). Habitat suitability models for nesting woodpeckers can be informative, but tests of model transferability are needed to understand how broadly...

Characteristics of snags containing excavated cavities in northern Arizona mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forests

Treesearch

Joseph L. Ganey; Scott C. Vojta

2004-01-01

Snags provide an important resource for a rich assemblage of cavity-nesting birds in the southwestern United States. To expand our knowledge of snag use by cavity-nesting birds in this region, we documented characteristics of snags with and without excavated cavities in mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws) forest in north...

Projected changes of extreme precipitation over Contiguous United States with Nested regional climate model (NRCM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.

2013-12-01

Extreme weather events have already significantly influenced North America. During 2005-2011, the extreme events have increased by 250 %, from four or fewer events occurring in 2005, while 14 events occurring in 2011 (www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/). In addition, extreme rainfall amounts, frequency, and intensity were all expected to increase under greenhouse warming scenarios (Wehner 2005; Kharin et al. 2007; Tebaldi et al. 2006). Global models are powerful tools to investigate the climate and climate change on large scales. However, such models do not represent local terrain and mesoscale weather systems well owing to their coarse horizontal resolution (150-300 km). To capture the fine-scale features of extreme weather events, regional climate models (RCMs) with a more realistic representation of the complex terrain and heterogeneous land surfaces are needed (Mass et al. 2002). This study uses the Nested Regional Climate model (NRCM) to perform regional scale climate simulations on a 12-km × 12-km high resolution scale over North America (including Alaska; with 600 × 515 grid cells at longitude and latitude), known as CORDEX_North America, instead of small regions as studied previously (eg., Dominguez et al. 2012; Gao et al. 2012). The performance and the biases of the NRCM extreme precipitation calculations (2000-2010) have been evaluated with PRISM precipitation (Daly et al. 1997) by Wang and Kotamarthi (2013): the NRCM replicated very well the monthly amount of extreme precipitation with less than 3% overestimation over East CONUS, and the frequency of extremes over West CONUS and upper Mississippi River Basin. The Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP 4.5 from the new Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM v1.0) are dynamically downscaled to predict the extreme rainfall events at the end-of-century (2085-2095) and to explore the uncertainties of future extreme precipitation induced by different scenarios over distinct regions. We have corrected the CO2 atmospheric concentration in the longwave/shortwave radiation schemes of the NRCM according to the recommended datasets by CMIP5 (Clarke et al. 2007; Riahi et al. 2007). We have also corrected an inconsistency in skin temperature during the downscaling process by modifying the land/sea mask of CLM 4.0 as mentioned by Gao et al. (2012). Acknowledgements: This work was supported under a military interdepartmental purchase request from the SERDP, RC-2242, through U.S. Department of Energy contract DE-AC02-06CH11357.

Breeding phenology of birds: mechanisms underlying seasonal declines in the risk of nest predation.

PubMed

Borgmann, Kathi L; Conway, Courtney J; Morrison, Michael L

2013-01-01

Seasonal declines in avian clutch size are well documented, but seasonal variation in other reproductive parameters has received less attention. For example, the probability of complete brood mortality typically explains much of the variation in reproductive success and often varies seasonally, but we know little about the underlying cause of that variation. This oversight is surprising given that nest predation influences many other life-history traits and varies throughout the breeding season in many songbirds. To determine the underlying causes of observed seasonal decreases in risk of nest predation, we modeled nest predation of Dusky Flycatchers (Empidonax oberholseri) in northern California as a function of foliage phenology, energetic demand, developmental stage, conspecific nest density, food availability for nest predators, and nest predator abundance. Seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was not associated with seasonal changes in energetic demand, conspecific nest density, or predator abundance. Instead, seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was associated with foliage density (early, but not late, in the breeding season) and seasonal changes in food available to nest predators. Supplemental food provided to nest predators resulted in a numerical response by nest predators, increasing the risk of nest predation at nests that were near supplemental feeders. Our results suggest that seasonal changes in foliage density and factors associated with changes in food availability for nest predators are important drivers of temporal patterns in risk of avian nest predation.

Breeding Phenology of Birds: Mechanisms Underlying Seasonal Declines in the Risk of Nest Predation

PubMed Central

Borgmann, Kathi L.; Conway, Courtney J.; Morrison, Michael L.

2013-01-01

Seasonal declines in avian clutch size are well documented, but seasonal variation in other reproductive parameters has received less attention. For example, the probability of complete brood mortality typically explains much of the variation in reproductive success and often varies seasonally, but we know little about the underlying cause of that variation. This oversight is surprising given that nest predation influences many other life-history traits and varies throughout the breeding season in many songbirds. To determine the underlying causes of observed seasonal decreases in risk of nest predation, we modeled nest predation of Dusky Flycatchers (Empidonax oberholseri) in northern California as a function of foliage phenology, energetic demand, developmental stage, conspecific nest density, food availability for nest predators, and nest predator abundance. Seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was not associated with seasonal changes in energetic demand, conspecific nest density, or predator abundance. Instead, seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was associated with foliage density (early, but not late, in the breeding season) and seasonal changes in food available to nest predators. Supplemental food provided to nest predators resulted in a numerical response by nest predators, increasing the risk of nest predation at nests that were near supplemental feeders. Our results suggest that seasonal changes in foliage density and factors associated with changes in food availability for nest predators are important drivers of temporal patterns in risk of avian nest predation. PMID:23776566

Bayesian model comparison and parameter inference in systems biology using nested sampling.

PubMed

Pullen, Nick; Morris, Richard J

2014-01-01

Inferring parameters for models of biological processes is a current challenge in systems biology, as is the related problem of comparing competing models that explain the data. In this work we apply Skilling's nested sampling to address both of these problems. Nested sampling is a Bayesian method for exploring parameter space that transforms a multi-dimensional integral to a 1D integration over likelihood space. This approach focuses on the computation of the marginal likelihood or evidence. The ratio of evidences of different models leads to the Bayes factor, which can be used for model comparison. We demonstrate how nested sampling can be used to reverse-engineer a system's behaviour whilst accounting for the uncertainty in the results. The effect of missing initial conditions of the variables as well as unknown parameters is investigated. We show how the evidence and the model ranking can change as a function of the available data. Furthermore, the addition of data from extra variables of the system can deliver more information for model comparison than increasing the data from one variable, thus providing a basis for experimental design.

Biogeochemical Trends and Their Ecosystem Impacts in Atlantic Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fennel, Katja; Rutherford, Krysten; Kuhn, Angela; Zhang, Wenxia; Brennan, Katie; Zhang, Rui

2017-04-01

The representation of coastal oceans in global biogeochemical models is a challenge, yet the ecosystems in these regions are most vulnerable to the combined stressors of ocean warming, deoxygenation, acidification, eutrophication and fishing. Coastal regions also have large air-sea fluxes of CO2, making them an important but poorly quantified component of the global carbon cycle, and are the most relevant for human activities. Regional model applications that are nested within large-scale or global models are necessary for detailed studies of coastal regions. We present results from such a regional biogeochemical model for the northwestern North Atlantic shelves and adjacent deep ocean of Atlantic Canada. The model is an implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and includes an NPZD-type nitrogen cycle model with explicit representation of dissolved oxygen and inorganic carbon. The region is at the confluence of the Gulf Stream and Labrador Current making it highly dynamic, a challenge for analysis and prediction, and prone to large changes. Historically a rich fishing ground, coastal ecosystems in Atlantic Canada have undergone dramatic changes including the collapse of several economically important fish stocks and the listing of many species as threatened or endangered. Furthermore it is unclear whether the region is a net source or sink of atmospheric CO2 with estimates of the size and direction of the net air-sea CO2 flux remaining controversial. We will discuss simulated patterns of primary production, inorganic carbon fluxes and oxygen trends in the context of circulation features and shelf residence times for the present ocean state and present future projections.

Effects of human recreation on the incubation behavior of American Oystercatchers

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, C.P.; Simons, T.R.

2006-01-01

Human recreational disturbance and its effects on wildlife demographics and behavior is an increasingly important area of research. We monitored the nesting success of American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus) in coastal North Carolina in 2002 and 2003. We also used video monitoring at nests to measure the response of incubating birds to human recreation. We counted the number of trips per hour made by adult birds to and from the nest, and we calculated the percent time that adults spent incubating. We asked whether human recreational activities (truck, all-terrain vehicle [ATV], and pedestrian traffic) were correlated with parental behavioral patterns. Eleven a priori models of nest survival and behavioral covariates were evaluated using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to see whether incubation behavior influenced nest survival. Factors associated with birds leaving their nests (n = 548) included ATV traffic (25%), truck traffic (17%), pedestrian traffic (4%), aggression with neighboring oystercatchers or paired birds exchanging incubation duties (26%), airplane traffic (1%) and unknown factors (29%). ATV traffic was positively associated with the rate of trips to and away from the nest (??1 = 0.749, P < 0.001) and negatively correlated with percent time spent incubating (??1 = -0.037, P = 0.025). Other forms of human recreation apparently had little effect on incubation behaviors. Nest survival models incorporating the frequency of trips by adults to and from the nest, and the percentage of time adults spent incubating, were somewhat supported in the AIC analyses. A low frequency of trips to and from the nest and, counter to expectations, low percent time spent incubating were associated with higher daily nest survival rates. These data suggest that changes in incubation behavior might be one mechanism by which human recreation affects the reproductive success of American Oystercatchers.

Habitat edges affect patterns of artificial nest predation along a wetland-meadow boundary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suvorov, Petr; Svobodová, Jana; Albrecht, Tomáš

2014-08-01

Wetland habitats are among the most endangered ecosystems in the world. However, little is known about factors affecting the nesting success of birds in pristine grass-dominated wetlands. During three breeding periods we conducted an experiment with artificial ground nests to test two basic mechanisms (the matrix and ecotonal effects) that may result in edge effects on nest predation in grass-dominated wetland habitats. Whereas the matrix effect model supposes that predator penetrate from habitat of higher predator density to habitat of lower predator density, thus causing an edge effect in the latter, according to the ecotonal effect model predators preferentially use edge habitats over habitat interiors. In addition, we tested the edge effect in a wetland habitat using artificial shrub nests that simulated the real nests of small open-cup nesting passerines. In our study area, the lowest predation rates on ground nests were found in wetland interiors and were substantially higher along the edges of both wetland and meadow habitat. However, predation was not significantly different between meadow and wetland interiors, indicating that both mechanisms can be responsible for the edge effect in wetland edges. An increased predation rate along wetland edges was also observed for shrub nests, and resembled the predation pattern of real shrub nests in the same study area. Though we are not able to distinguish between the two mechanisms of the edge effect found, our results demonstrate that species nesting in wetland edges bordering arable land may be exposed to higher predation. Therefore, an increase in the size of wetland patches that would lead to a reduced proportion of edge areas might be a suitable management practice to protect wetland bird species in cultural European landscapes.

Firewalls in bee nests-survival value of propolis walls of wild Cape honeybee (Apis mellifera capensis).

PubMed

Tribe, Geoff; Tautz, Jürgen; Sternberg, Karin; Cullinan, Jenny

2017-04-01

The Cape bee is endemic to the winter rainfall region of South Africa where fires are an integral part of the ecology of the fynbos (heathland) vegetation. Of the 37 wild nests in pristine Peninsula Sandstone Fynbos in the Cape Point section of Table Mountain National Park that have been analyzed so far, only 22 could be accessed sufficiently to determine the existence of a propolis wall of which 68% had propolis walls which entirely enclosed their openings. The analysis of the 37 wild nests revealed that 78% occurred under boulders or in clefts within rocks, 11% in the ground, 8% in tree cavities, and 3% within shrubs. The analysis of 17 of these nests following a fire within the park revealed that the propolis walls materially protected the nests and retarded the fire with all the colonies surviving. The bees responded to the smoke by imbibing honey and retreating to the furthest recess of their nest cavity. The bees were required to utilize this honey for about 3 weeks after which fire-loving plants appeared and began flowering. Considerable resources were utilized in the construction of the propolis walls, which ranged in thickness from 1.5 to 40 mm (mean 5 mm). Its physical environment determines the nesting behavior of the Cape bee. The prolific use of propolis serves to insulate the nest from extremes of temperature and humidity, restricts entry, camouflages the nest, and acts as an effective fire barrier protecting nests established mostly under rocks in vegetation subjected to periodic fires.

Construction patterns of birds' nests provide insight into nest-building behaviours.

PubMed

Biddle, Lucia; Goodman, Adrian M; Deeming, D Charles

2017-01-01

Previous studies have suggested that birds and mammals select materials needed for nest building based on their thermal or structural properties, although the amounts or properties of the materials used have been recorded for only a very small number of species. Some of the behaviours underlying the construction of nests can be indirectly determined by careful deconstruction of the structure and measurement of the biomechanical properties of the materials used. Here we examined this idea in an investigation of Bullfinch ( Pyrrhula pyrrhula ) nests as a model for open-nesting songbird species that construct a "twig" nest, and tested the hypothesis that materials in different parts of nests serve different functions. The quantities of materials present in the nest base, sides and cup were recorded before structural analysis. Structural analysis showed that the base of the outer nests were composed of significantly thicker, stronger and more rigid materials compared to the side walls, which in turn were significantly thicker, stronger and more rigid than materials used in the cup. These results suggest that the placement of particular materials in nests may not be random, but further work is required to determine if the final structure of a nest accurately reflects the construction process.

Comparing Regression Coefficients between Nested Linear Models for Clustered Data with Generalized Estimating Equations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yan, Jun; Aseltine, Robert H., Jr.; Harel, Ofer

2013-01-01

Comparing regression coefficients between models when one model is nested within another is of great practical interest when two explanations of a given phenomenon are specified as linear models. The statistical problem is whether the coefficients associated with a given set of covariates change significantly when other covariates are added into…

A quantitative study on accumulation of age mass around stagnation points in nested flow systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Xiao-Wei; Wan, Li; Ge, Shemin; Cao, Guo-Liang; Hou, Guang-Cai; Hu, Fu-Sheng; Wang, Xu-Sheng; Li, Hailong; Liang, Si-Hai

2012-12-01

The stagnant zones in nested flow systems have been assumed to be critical to accumulation of transported matter, such as metallic ions and hydrocarbons in drainage basins. However, little quantitative research has been devoted to prove this assumption. In this paper, the transport of age mass is used as an example to demonstrate that transported matter could accumulate around stagnation points. The spatial distribution of model age is analyzed in a series of drainage basins of different depths. We found that groundwater age has a local or regional maximum value around each stagnation point, which proves the accumulation of age mass. In basins where local, intermediate and regional flow systems are all well developed, the regional maximum groundwater age occurs at the regional stagnation point below the basin valley. This can be attributed to the long travel distances of regional flow systems as well as stagnancy of the water. However, when local flow systems dominate, the maximum groundwater age in the basin can be located around the local stagnation points due to stagnancy, which are far away from the basin valley. A case study is presented to illustrate groundwater flow and age in the Ordos Plateau, northwestern China. The accumulation of age mass around stagnation points is confirmed by tracer age determined by 14C dating in two boreholes and simulated age near local stagnation points under different dispersivities. The results will help shed light on the relationship between groundwater flow and distributions of groundwater age, hydrochemistry, mineral resources, and hydrocarbons in drainage basins.

The Rufous Hornero (Furnarius rufus) nest as an incubation chamber.

PubMed

Shibuya, Felipe L S; Braga, Talita V; Roper, James J

2015-01-01

Foraging and incubation are mutually exclusive activities for parent birds. A trade-off is generated when a combination of food availability and temperature regulation force birds to choose one and neglect the other, at least temporarily. The Rufous Hornero builds large, oven-like, mud nests, the evolutionary cause of which remains unknown. We tested that temperature variation inside the nest is that which is expected if one function of the nest were for temperate regulation. If so, this would suggest that the nest works as an incubation chamber (but which now may serve more than one function). We divided nests into two natural treatments: nests that received more continuous direct sunshine (sun), and those that received less direct sunshine, due to shade from trees or buildings (shade). Thermometer data loggers were placed in the nest cavity and outside, in the shade of the nest, and temperature was measured every 10min. We predicted that temperatures would consistently be higher and less variable in nests than outside nests. Also, at higher ambient temperatures the nest would function better as an incubation chamber as a consequence of having evolved in a hotter climate. Thus, in Curitiba, where temperatures are lower than where the species (and nest) evolved, nests in greater sunshine should have thermal characteristics that support the incubation chamber hypothesis. Predictions were supported: with Repeated Measures ANOVA and t-tests, we found that temperatures were more constant and higher in nests, especially when in the sun, and as the season progressed (hotter ambient temperatures). We conclude that the large mud nest of the Rufous Hornero works as an incubation chamber that likely evolved to help resolve the incubation-foraging trade-off in the very seasonal and hot regions where the bird evolved. Thus, as an incubation chamber, the nest allows the bird to forage rather than incubate thereby resolving the foraging-incubation trade-off and potentially favoring survival of the adults and their foraging for, rather than incubating, their young. Counter intuitively, in the study area, where the Rufous Hornero is a recent arrival following deforestation, and where the climate is very different from where it evolved, there seems to be no clear thermal benefits for the birds from their energetically expensive mud nest. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reproductive rate and temporal spacing of nesting of red-winged blackbirds in upland habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dolbeer, Richard A.

1976-01-01

The literature contains numerous studies on Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) reproduction. Francis (1971) summarized eight studies dealing with nesting success. These and other studies have also provided information on breeding chronology, clutch sizes, sex ratios, survival rates for eggs and nestlings, reproductive physiology, and other life history aspects of reproduction. With few exceptions, these studies have provided no data on the number of young fledged per female, per territorial male, or per unit area. This is especially true for upland nesting habitats where, at least in the midwestern United States, most Red-wings now nest (Graber and Graber 1963, Dyer et al. 1973). Also insufficient quantitative information is available on the extent and nature of renesting (i.e. nesting more than once in a nesting season) and on movements of adult females during the nesting season.A better understanding of these aspects of reproduction is critical for the development of an accurate population-dynamics model for the species. Such a model is sorely needed to evaluate the impact and effectiveness of proposed population management strategies in places where blackbirds are deemed a health or safety hazard, or cause damage to agricultural crops (Tosh et al. 1970, Solman 1971, Stone et al. 1972).This study had three objectives: (1) to determine the distribution, size, and number of Red-winged Blackbird territories for an old-field habitat; (2) to determine the number of nesting females, nesting success, extent of renesting, and number of young fledged for these territories; and (3) to examine movements of female Red-wings during the nesting season.

INCREASING THE ACCURACY OF MAYFIELD ESTIMATES USING KNOWLEDGE OF NEST AGE

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation will focus on the error introduced in nest-survival modeling when nest-cycles are assumed to be of constant length. I will present the types of error that may occur, including biases resulting from incorrect estimates of expected values, as well as biases that o...

High resolution regional climate simulation of the Hawaiian Islands - Validation of the historical run from 2003 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, L.; Newman, A. J.; Ikeda, K.; Rasmussen, R.; Clark, M. P.; Monaghan, A. J.

2016-12-01

A high-resolution (a 1.5 km grid spacing domain nested within a 4.5 km grid spacing domain) 10-year regional climate simulation over the entire Hawaiian archipelago is being conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.7.1. Numerical sensitivity simulations of the Hawaiian Rainband Project (HaRP, a filed experiment from July to August in 1990) showed that the simulated precipitation properties are sensitive to initial and lateral boundary conditions, sea surface temperature (SST), land surface models, vertical resolution and cloud droplet concentration. The validations of model simulated statistics of the trade wind inversion, temperature, wind field, cloud cover, and precipitation over the islands against various observations from soundings, satellites, weather stations and rain gauges during the period from 2003 to 2012 will be presented at the meeting.

Atmospheric inversion of the surface carbon flux with consideration of the spatial distributions of US crop production and consumption

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, J. M.; Fung, J. W.; Mo, G.

2015-01-01

In order to improve quantification of the spatial distribution of carbon sinks and sources in the conterminous USA, we conduct a nested global atmospheric inversion with consideration of the spatial information of crop production and consumption. Spatially distributed 5 county-level cropland net primary productivity, harvested biomass, soil carbon change, and human and livestock consumption data over the conterminous USA are used for this purpose. Time-dependent Bayesian synthesis inversions are conducted based on CO₂ observations at 210 stations to infer CO₂ fluxes globally at monthly time steps with a nested focus on 30 regions in North America. Prior land surface carbonmore » 10 fluxes are first generated using a biospheric model, and the inversions are constrained using prior fluxes with and without adjustments for crop production and consumption over the 2002–2007 period. After these adjustments, the inverted regional carbon sink in the US Midwest increases from 0.25 ± 0.03 Pg C yr⁻¹ to 0.42 ± 0.13 Pg C yr⁻¹, whereas the large sink in the US Southeast forest region is weakened from 0.41±0.12 Pg C yr⁻¹ 15 to 0.29 ±0.12 Pg C yr⁻¹. These adjustments also reduce the inverted sink in the West region from 0.066 ± 0.04 Pg C yr⁻¹ to 0.040 ± 0.02 Pg C yr⁻1 because of high crop consumption and respiration by humans and livestock. The general pattern of sink increase in crop production areas and sink decreases (or source increases) in crop consumption areas highlights the importance of considering the lateral carbon transfer in crop 20 products in atmospheric inverse modeling, which provides an atmospheric perspective of the overall carbon balance of a region.« less

An assessment of bird habitat quality using population growth rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knutson, M.G.; Powell, L.A.; Hines, R.K.; Friberg, M.A.; Niemi, G.J.

2006-01-01

Survival and reproduction directly affect population growth rate (lambda) making lambda a fundamental parameter for assessing habitat quality. We used field data, literature review, and a computer simulation to predict annual productivity and lambda for several species of landbirds breeding in floodplain and upland forests in the Midwestern United States. We monitored 1735 nests of 27 species; 760 nests were in the uplands and 975 were in the floodplain. Each type of forest habitat (upland and floodplain) was a source habitat for some species. Despite a relatively low proportion of regional forest cover, the majority of species had stable or increasing populations in all or some habitats, including six species of conservation concern. In our search for a simple analog for lambda, we found that only adult apparent survival, juvenile survival, and annual productivity were correlated with lambda; daily nest survival and relative abundance estimated from point counts were not. Survival and annual productivity are among the most costly demographic parameters to measure and there does not seem to be a low-cost alternative. In addition, our literature search revealed that the demographic parameters needed to model annual productivity and lambda were unavailable for several species. More collective effort across North America is needed to fill the gaps in our knowledge of demographic parameters necessary to model both annual productivity and lambda. Managers can use habitat-specific predictions of annual productivity to compare habitat quality among species and habitats for purposes of evaluating management plans.

Linking occurrence and fitness to persistence: Habitat-based approach for endangered Greater Sage-Grouse

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aldridge, Cameron L.; Boyce, Mark S.

2007-01-01

Detailed empirical models predicting both species occurrence and fitness across a landscape are necessary to understand processes related to population persistence. Failure to consider both occurrence and fitness may result in incorrect assessments of habitat importance leading to inappropriate management strategies. We took a two-stage approach to identifying critical nesting and brood-rearing habitat for the endangered Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Alberta at a landscape scale. First, we used logistic regression to develop spatial models predicting the relative probability of use (occurrence) for Sage-Grouse nests and broods. Secondly, we used Cox proportional hazards survival models to identify the most risky habitats across the landscape. We combined these two approaches to identify Sage-Grouse habitats that pose minimal risk of failure (source habitats) and attractive sink habitats that pose increased risk (ecological traps). Our models showed that Sage-Grouse select for heterogeneous patches of moderate sagebrush cover (quadratic relationship) and avoid anthropogenic edge habitat for nesting. Nests were more successful in heterogeneous habitats, but nest success was independent of anthropogenic features. Similarly, broods selected heterogeneous high-productivity habitats with sagebrush while avoiding human developments, cultivated cropland, and high densities of oil wells. Chick mortalities tended to occur in proximity to oil and gas developments and along riparian habitats. For nests and broods, respectively, approximately 10% and 5% of the study area was considered source habitat, whereas 19% and 15% of habitat was attractive sink habitat. Limited source habitats appear to be the main reason for poor nest success (39%) and low chick survival (12%). Our habitat models identify areas of protection priority and areas that require immediate management attention to enhance recruitment to secure the viability of this population. This novel approach to habitat-based population viability modeling has merit for many species of concern. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Patterns and Trends of Primary Production, Inorganic Carbon and Oxygen and Their Ecosystem Impacts in a Regional Biogeochemical Ocean Model for Atlantic Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fennel, K.; Rutherford, K. E.; Kuhn, A. M.; Zhang, W.; Brennan, C. E.; Zhang, R.

2016-12-01

Representing coastal oceans in global biogeochemical models is a challenge, yet the ecosystems in these regions are most vulnerable to the combined stressors of ocean warming, deoxygenation, acidification, eutrophication and fishing. Coastal regions also have large air-sea fluxes of CO2, making them an important but poorly quantified component of the global carbon cycle, and are the most relevant for human activities. Regional model applications that are nested within large-scale or global models are necessary for detailed studies of coastal regions. We present results from such a regional biogeochemical model for the northwestern North Atlantic shelves and adjacent deep ocean of Atlantic Canada. The model is an implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and includes an NPZD-type nitrogen cycle model with explicit representation of dissolved oxygen and inorganic carbon. The region is at the confluence of the Gulf Stream and Labrador Current making it highly dynamic, a challenge for analysis and prediction, and prone to large changes. Historically a rich fishing ground, coastal ecosystems in Atlantic Canada have undergone dramatic changes including the collapse of several economically important fish stocks and the listing of many species as threatened or endangered. Furthermore it is unclear whether the region is a net source or sink of atmospheric CO2 with estimates of the size and direction of the net air-sea CO2 flux remaining controversial. We will discuss simulated patterns of primary production, inorganic carbon fluxes and oxygen trends in the context of circulation features and shelf residence times for the present ocean state and present future projections.

North American osprey populations and contaminants: Historic and contemporary perspectives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henny, Charles J.; Grove, Robert A.; Kaiser, James L.; Johnson, Branden L.

2010-01-01

Osprey (Pandion haliaetus) populations were adversely affected by DDT and perhaps other contaminants in the United States and elsewhere. Reduced productivity, eggshell thinning, and high DDE concentrations in eggs were the signs associated with declining osprey populations in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s. The species was one of the first studied on a large scale to bring contaminant issues into focus. Although few quantitative population data were available prior to the 1960s, many osprey populations in North America were studied during the 1960s and 1970s with much learned about basic life history and biology. This article reviews the historical and current effects of contaminants on regional osprey populations. Breeding populations in many regions of North America showed post-DDT-era (1972) population increases of varying magnitudes, with many populations now appearing to stabilize at much higher numbers than initially reported in the 1970s and 1980s. However, the magnitude of regional population increases in the United States between 1981 (first Nationwide Survey, ∼8,000 pairs), when some recovery had already occurred, 1994 (second survey, ∼14,200), and 2001 (third survey, ∼16,000–19,000), or any other years, is likely not a simple response to the release from earlier contaminant effects, but a response to multi-factorial effects. This indirect “contaminant effects” measurement comparing changes (i.e., recovery) in post-DDT-era population numbers over time is probably confounded by changing human attitudes toward birds of prey (shooting, destroying nests, etc.), changing habitats, changing fish populations, and perhaps competition from other species. The species' adaptation to newly created reservoirs and its increasing use of artificial nesting structures (power poles, nesting platforms, cell towers, channel markers, offshore duck blinds, etc.) are two important factors. The timing of the initial use of artificial nesting structures, which replaced declining numbers of suitable trees at many locations, varied regionally (much later in the western United States and Mexico). Because of the increasing use of artificial nesting structures, there may be more ospreys nesting in North America now than ever before. Now, with the impact of most legacy organic contaminants (DDT, other organochlorine [OC] pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls [PCB], polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins [PCDD], polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDF]) greatly reduced or eliminated, and some osprey populations showing evidence of stabilizing, the species was proposed as a Worldwide Sentinel Species for evaluating emerging contaminants. Several emerging contaminants are already being studied, such as polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDE) and perfluorinated acids and sulfonate compounds (PFC). The many advantages for continued contaminant investigations using the osprey include a good understanding of its biology and ecology, its known distribution and abundance, and its ability to habituate to humans and their activities, which permits nesting in some of the potentially most contaminated environments. It is a top predator in most ecosystems, and its nests are relatively easy to locate and study with little researcher impact on reproductive success.

Usage of Nest Materials by House Sparrow (Passer domesticus) Along an Urban to Rural Gradient in Coimbatore, India.

PubMed

Radhamany, Dhanya; Das, Karumampoyil Sakthidas Anoop; Azeez, Parappurath Abdul; Wen, Longying; Sreekala, Leelambika Krishnan

2016-08-01

The house sparrow (Passer domesticus) is a widely distributed bird species found throughout the world. Being a species which has close association with humans, they chiefly nest on man-made structures. Here we describe the materials used by the house sparrow for making nests along an urban to rural gradient. For the current study, we selected the Coimbatore to Anaikatty road (State Highway-164), a 27 km inter-state highway, which traverses along an urban core to rural outstretch of Coimbatore. Of the 30 nests observed, 15 nests were from the rural, 8 were from the suburban, and 7 were from the urban areas. The nests had two distinct layers, specifically the structural layer and the inner lining. In the current study, we identified 11 plant species, 2 types of animal matter, and 6 types of anthropogenic matter, including plastic pieces and fine rope. The amount of anthropogenic materials in the nest formation varied along the gradients. The usage of anthropogenic materials was high in urban areas (p<0.05) whereas it did not differ at the sub-urban regions (p>0.05). A gradual decrease in the usage of plant matter towards the urban area was noticed (p<0.05). This study explicitly documents the links between nest material usage along an urban to rural gradient, in a human associated bird.

Reproductive biology and genetic diversity of the green turtle (Chelonia mydas) in Vamizi island, Mozambique.

PubMed

Anastácio, Rita; Santos, Camila; Lopes, Cardoso; Moreira, Helena; Souto, Luis; Ferrão, Jorge; Garnier, Julie; Pereira, Mário J

2014-01-01

Vamizi, an Island located in the Western Indian Ocean, is visited by a small and not fully characterized green turtle (Chelonia mydas (L.)) population. This population is threatened by natural hazards and several human activities, which are used to identify conservation priorities for marine turtles. It was our aim to contribute to the knowledge of marine turtles that nest in Vamizi, with respect to its regional management, and to an area that may possibly be included on the UNESCO World Heritage List due to its potential Outstanding Universal Value. Here, we evaluate the nesting parameters (incubation period, clutch size, hatching and emergence successes rates) and patterns over an 8-year (2003 - 2010) conservation program. We also present the results of genetic diversity based on the analysis of approximately an 850 pb fragment of the mitochondrial DNA control region. We found that Vamizi beaches host a small number of nesting females, approximately 52 per year, but these have shown a reduction in their length. High hatching success (88.5 ± SD 17.2%, N = 649), emergence success rates (84.5 ± SD 20.4%, N = 649) were observed, and genetic diversity (N = 135), with 11 haplotypes found (7 new). It was also observed, in the later years of this study, a reduction in the incubation period, a dislocation of the nesting peak activity and an increase in the number of flooded nests and an increase of the number of nests in areas with lower human activity. Some resilience and behavioral plasticity seems to occur regarding human territory occupancy and climate changes. However, regardless of the results, aspects like what seems to be the reduction of some cohorts, the number of flooded nests and the diminishing of the incubation period (East and South facing beaches), show that conservation efforts have to be improved.

Ant-nest ichnofossils in honeycomb calcretes, Neogene Ogallala Formation, High Plains region of western Kansas, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, J.J.; Platt, B.F.; Ludvigson, Greg A.; Thomasson, J.R.

2011-01-01

Two new ant-nest trace fossils are described from calcic sandy paleosols of the Neogene Ogallala Formation in western Kansas. The ichnofossils are preserved within and below calcrete beds weathering in positive relief as carbonate-filled casts or as cavities in negative relief. Daimoniobarax ichnogenus nov. is established for burrow systems composed of vertically tiered, horizontally oriented pancake-shaped chambers connected by predominantly vertical and cylindrical shafts ~. 0.8. cm in diameter. Ichnospecies of Daimoniobarax are differentiated based on differences in the plan view outline of chambers, shaft orientation, and junctions between chambers and shafts.Daimoniobarax nephroides ichnospecies nov. is composed of an ~. 24-76. cm long vertical sequence of distinctly lobed chambers (~. 2-20. cm wide and ~. 1. cm high) arranged along sinuous to helical shafts. Chamber shape in plan view ranges from small teardrops to larger kidney- and U-shaped forms. Shafts intersect at chamber edges such that chambers appear to bud from the central shafts. Daimoniobarax nephroides is most similar to the nests of extant seed-harvester ants of the New World genus Pogonomyrmex. Such ants are specialized granivores and prefer sandy soils in arid to semi-arid grassland and desert regions.Daimoniobarax tschinkeli ichnospecies nov. is ~. 30-80. cm in vertical extent. Chambers (~. 2-30. cm wide and ~. 1. cm high) are circular to elongate or pseudopodial in plan view. Vertical shafts are straight to slightly sinuous and intersect most often toward the center of the chambers. The generalized architecture of D. tschinkeli is similar to that of the nests or nest portions of several extant ant genera, though it does not closely resemble any known modern nest.Ant ichnofossils provide valuable information on hidden biodiversity, paleohydrologic regimes, paleopedogenic processes, and paleoclimate during the time of nest occupation. Depth-related changes in chamber size and vertical spacing may also help interpret paleosurfaces and paleodepths, and serve as geopetal features. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Detection of Toxoplasma gondii oocysts in soils in northwestern China using a new semi-nested PCR assay.

PubMed

Wang, Meng; Meng, Peng; Ye, Qiang; Pu, Yuan-Hua; Yang, Xiao-Yu; Luo, Jian-Xun; Zhang, Nian-Zhang; Zhang, De-Lin

2014-09-28

Toxoplasma gondii is a zoonotic pathogen that can infect a range of animals and humans. Ingestion of T. gondii oocysts in soil is a significant transmission route for humans and animals acquiring toxoplasmosis. In the present study, we developed a new semi-nested PCR method to determine T. gondii oocysts distribution in soils in northwestern China. The one tube semi-nested PCR assay was developed to detect the oocysts of T. gondii in soil, targeting the repetitive 529 bp fragment of T. gondii genomic DNA. Then a total of 268 soil samples, including 148 samples from Gansu Province and 120 samples from Qinghai Province, northwestern China, were examined by the semi-nested PCR method. One third of the positive samples were sequenced. The sensitivity of the semi-nested PCR assay was 10(2)  T. gondii oocysts in 5 g soil sample. Investigation of soil samples from northwestern China showed that 34 out of 268 soil samples (12.69%) were T. gondii positive. Sequences of the partial 529 bp fragments varied from 0-1.2% among the sequenced samples. The prevalence of T. gondii oocysts in soil from cities (24/163) was slightly higher than that in soils from pasturing areas (10/105) (P = 0.21). Among the different regions in cities, the prevalence of T. gondii oocysts in soils from parks was 14.15%, whereas that in soils from schools was 19.05%. The present study firstly reported the prevalence of T. gondii oocysts in soils in northwest China using a novel semi-nested PCR assay, which provided baseline data for the effective prevention and control of toxoplasmosis in this region.

Impact of CYGNSS Data on Tropical Cyclone Analyses and Forecasts in a Regional OSSE Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Annane, B.; McNoldy, B. D.; Leidner, S. M.; Atlas, R. M.; Hoffman, R.; Majumdar, S.

2016-12-01

The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, is a planned constellation of micro-satellites that will utilize reflected Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite signals to retrieve ocean surface wind speed along the satellites' ground tracks. The orbits are designed so that there is excellent coverage of the tropics and subtropics, resulting in more thorough spatial sampling and improved sampling intervals over tropical cyclones than is possible with current spaceborne scatterometer and passive microwave sensor platforms. Furthermore, CYGNSS will be able to retrieve winds under all precipitating conditions, and over a large range of wind speeds.A regional Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework was developed at NOAA/AOML and University of Miami that features a high-resolution regional nature run (27-km regional domain with 9/3/1 km storm-following nests; Nolan et al., 2013) embedded within a lower-resolution global nature run . Simulated observations are generated by sampling from the nature run and are provided to a data assimilation scheme, which produces analyses for a high-resolution regional forecast model, the 2014 operational Hurricane-WRF model. For data assimilation, NOAA's GSI and EnKF systems are used. Analyses are performed on the parent domain at 9-km resolution. The forecast model uses a single storm-following 3-km resolution nest. Synthetic CYGNSS wind speed data have also been created, and the impacts of the assimilation of these data on the forecasts of tropical cyclone track and intensity will be discussed.In addition to the choice of assimilation scheme, we have also examined a number of other factors/parameters that effect the impact of simulated CYGNSS observations, including frequency of data assimilation cycling (e.g., hourly, 3-hourly and 6-hourly) and the assimilation of scalar versus vector synthetic CYGNSS winds.We have found sensitivity to all of the factors tested and will summarize the methods used for testing as well as results. Generally, we have found that more frequent cycling is better than less; and flow-dependent background error covariances (e.g., EnKF) are better than static or climatological assumptions about the background error covariance.

An energy-circuit population model for great egrets (Ardea alba) at Lake Okeechobee, Florida, U.S.A

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Jeff P.

1997-01-01

I simulated the annual population cycles of Great Egrets (Ardea alba) at Lake Okeechobee, Florida, to provide a framework for evaluating the local population dynamics of nesting and foraging wading birds. The external forcing functions were solar energy, minimum air temperature, water depth, surface-water drying rate, and season. Solar input controlled the production of prey at moderate to high lake stages, but water area exerted primary control during a two-year drought. Modeling prey production as a linear function of water area resulted in underestimation of prey density during the drought, suggesting that prey organisms maintained high fecundity while concentrated in submerged vegetation at the lakeward fringe of the littoral zone. Simulation confirmed that large influxes of wading birds during the drought were the combined result of a regional refuge response and the availability of concentrated prey. Modeling immigration and emigration as primarily functions of the surface-water drying rate, rather than lake stage, resulted in a closer match of observed and simulated population trends for foraging birds, suggesting that the pattern of surface-water fluctuations was a more important factor than water depth. Simulation indicated an abrupt-threshold response rather than a linear association between foraging efficiency and low temperatures, which reduce activity levels of forage fishes. Great Egret breeder recruitment is primarily a function of prey availability, climate, and hydrologic trends, but simulation confirmed the concurrent involvement of a seasonal or physiological-readiness factor. An attractor function driven by high winter lake stages was necessary to reproduce observed patterns of breeder recruitment, suggesting that Great Egrets initiate nesting based on environmental cues that lead to peak food availability when nestlings are present. Poor correspondence of reproductive effort and nest productivity suggested that the drought compromised the birds' predictive abilities. The need to model breeder recruitment as a function of a maximum rate rather than the size of the local foraging population suggested that birds may nest on the lake even though on-lake foraging conditions are poor. Simulated and observed estimates of egg and hatching production did not match, suggesting that the causes of failure during incubation were complex or more localized than could be accounted for with lakewide hydrologic and climatic data. A forced increase in prey consumption of 12% was necessary to reproduce observed, high levels of nest productivity in 1990, which corresponded to the finding that panhandled fish constituted 10–12% of the biomass fed to Great Egret nestlings that year.

A High-Resolution Tile-Based Approach for Classifying Biological Regions in Whole-Slide Histopathological Images

PubMed Central

Hoffman, R.A.; Kothari, S.; Phan, J.H.; Wang, M.D.

2016-01-01

Computational analysis of histopathological whole slide images (WSIs) has emerged as a potential means for improving cancer diagnosis and prognosis. However, an open issue relating to the automated processing of WSIs is the identification of biological regions such as tumor, stroma, and necrotic tissue on the slide. We develop a method for classifying WSI portions (512x512-pixel tiles) into biological regions by (1) extracting a set of 461 image features from each WSI tile, (2) optimizing tile-level prediction models using nested cross-validation on a small (600 tile) manually annotated tile-level training set, and (3) validating the models against a much larger (1.7x106 tile) data set for which ground truth was available on the whole-slide level. We calculated the predicted prevalence of each tissue region and compared this prevalence to the ground truth prevalence for each image in an independent validation set. Results show significant correlation between the predicted (using automated system) and reported biological region prevalences with p < 0.001 for eight of nine cases considered. PMID:27532012

A High-Resolution Tile-Based Approach for Classifying Biological Regions in Whole-Slide Histopathological Images.

PubMed

Hoffman, R A; Kothari, S; Phan, J H; Wang, M D

Computational analysis of histopathological whole slide images (WSIs) has emerged as a potential means for improving cancer diagnosis and prognosis. However, an open issue relating to the automated processing of WSIs is the identification of biological regions such as tumor, stroma, and necrotic tissue on the slide. We develop a method for classifying WSI portions (512x512-pixel tiles) into biological regions by (1) extracting a set of 461 image features from each WSI tile, (2) optimizing tile-level prediction models using nested cross-validation on a small (600 tile) manually annotated tile-level training set, and (3) validating the models against a much larger (1.7x10 6 tile) data set for which ground truth was available on the whole-slide level. We calculated the predicted prevalence of each tissue region and compared this prevalence to the ground truth prevalence for each image in an independent validation set. Results show significant correlation between the predicted (using automated system) and reported biological region prevalences with p < 0.001 for eight of nine cases considered.

Influence of olfactory and visual cover on nest site selection and nest success for grassland-nesting birds.

PubMed

Fogarty, Dillon T; Elmore, R Dwayne; Fuhlendorf, Samuel D; Loss, Scott R

2017-08-01

Habitat selection by animals is influenced by and mitigates the effects of predation and environmental extremes. For birds, nest site selection is crucial to offspring production because nests are exposed to extreme weather and predation pressure. Predators that forage using olfaction often dominate nest predator communities; therefore, factors that influence olfactory detection (e.g., airflow and weather variables, including turbulence and moisture) should influence nest site selection and survival. However, few studies have assessed the importance of olfactory cover for habitat selection and survival. We assessed whether ground-nesting birds select nest sites based on visual and/or olfactory cover. Additionally, we assessed the importance of visual cover and airflow and weather variables associated with olfactory cover in influencing nest survival. In managed grasslands in Oklahoma, USA, we monitored nests of Northern Bobwhite ( Colinus virginianus ), Eastern Meadowlark ( Sturnella magna ), and Grasshopper Sparrow ( Ammodramus savannarum ) during 2015 and 2016. To assess nest site selection, we compared cover variables between nests and random points. To assess factors influencing nest survival, we used visual cover and olfactory-related measurements (i.e., airflow and weather variables) to model daily nest survival. For nest site selection, nest sites had greater overhead visual cover than random points, but no other significant differences were found. Weather variables hypothesized to influence olfactory detection, specifically precipitation and relative humidity, were the best predictors of and were positively related to daily nest survival. Selection for overhead cover likely contributed to mitigation of thermal extremes and possibly reduced detectability of nests. For daily nest survival, we hypothesize that major nest predators focused on prey other than the monitored species' nests during high moisture conditions, thus increasing nest survival on these days. Our study highlights how mechanistic approaches to studying cover informs which dimensions are perceived and selected by animals and which dimensions confer fitness-related benefits.

Assimilation of HF Radar-Derived Radials and Total Currents in the Monterey Bay Area

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

39529-5004, USA b Naval Postgraduate School Monterey. USA ARTICLE INFO Article history: Accepted 16 August 2008 Available online 19 September 2008 ...et al„ 1998; Breivick and Saetra, 2001; Oke et al., 2002; Kurapov et al., 2003; Paduan and Shulman, 2004; Wilkin et al., 2005). Surface-current data...atmospheric model nest covering the central California region that was first put in place during AOSN-II (Doyle et al., 2008 ). In this study, we address

Application of a Multidimensional Nested Logit Model to Multiple-Choice Test Items

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bolt, Daniel M.; Wollack, James A.; Suh, Youngsuk

2012-01-01

Nested logit models have been presented as an alternative to multinomial logistic models for multiple-choice test items (Suh and Bolt in "Psychometrika" 75:454-473, 2010) and possess a mathematical structure that naturally lends itself to evaluating the incremental information provided by attending to distractor selection in scoring. One potential…

Assessment of Contaminant Exposure and Effects on Ospreys Nesting along the Lower Duwamish River, Washington, 2006-07

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Branden L.; Henny, Charles J.; Kaiser, James L.; Davis, Jay W.; Schulz, Edmund P.

2009-01-01

We evaluated the effects of contaminants on osprey (Pandion haliaetus) nesting along the lower Duwamish River (LDR), Washington, and used the upper reach of the Willamette River (WR), Oregon, as a reference site. Osprey eggs and nestling blood (plasma) were collected at nests along the LDR (11 eggs, 7 plasmas) and WR (10 eggs, 6 plasmas) in 2006-07 and analyzed for contaminants. Additionally, hematology and serum chemistries were determined in the blood/plasma samples of nestlings (about 35-45 days old) and were used as potential indicators of stress induced by contaminant exposure. Detailed foraging information for ospreys nesting along the LDR was collected and evaluated to better understand contaminant profiles observed in the eggs and plasma. Additional residue data from 26 osprey eggs collected and analyzed in 2002-03 from nests along the LDR, Snohomish River Estuary (SRE) and Lake Washington (LW) in the Puget Sound (PS) region also were evaluated.

Warm oceanographic anomalies and fishing pressure drive seabird nesting north

PubMed Central

Velarde, Enriqueta; Ezcurra, Exequiel; Horn, Michael H.; Patton, Robert T.

2015-01-01

Parallel studies of nesting colonies in Mexico and the United States show that Elegant Terns (Thalasseus elegans) have expanded from the Gulf of California Midriff Island Region into Southern California, but the expansion fluctuates from year to year. A strong inverse relationship between nesting pairs in three Southern California nesting areas [San Diego saltworks, Bolsa Chica Ecological Reserve, and Los Angeles Harbor (1991 to 2014)] and Isla Rasa in the Midriff (1980 to 2014) shows that terns migrate northward when confronting warm oceanographic anomalies (>1.0°C), which may decrease fish availability and hamper nesting success. Migration pulses are triggered by sea surface temperature anomalies localized in the Midriff and, secondarily, by reductions in the sardine population as a result of intensive fishing. This behavior is new; before year 2000, the terns stayed in the Midriff even when oceanographic conditions were adverse. Our results show that terns are responding dynamically to rapidly changing oceanographic conditions and fish availability by migrating 600 km northwest in search of more productive waters. PMID:26601193

A comparison of remote vs. local influence of El Niño on the coastal circulation of the northeast Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermann, Albert J.; Curchitser, Enrique N.; Haidvogel, Dale B.; Dobbins, Elizabeth L.

2009-12-01

A set of spatially nested circulation models is used to explore interannual change in the northeast Pacific (NEP) during 1997-2002, and remote vs. local influence of the 1997-1998 El Niño on this region. Our nested set is based on the primitive equations of motion, and includes a basin-scale model of the north Pacific at ˜40-km resolution (NPac), and a regional model of the Northeast Pacific at ˜10-km resolution. The NEP model spans an area from Baja California through the Bering Sea, from the coast to ˜2000-km offshore. In this context, "remote influence" refers to effects driven by changes in ocean velocity and temperature outside of the NEP domain; "local influence" refers to direct forcing by winds and runoff within the NEP domain. A base run of this model using hindcast winds and runoff for 1996-2002 replicates the dominant spatial modes of sea-surface height anomalies from satellite data, and coastal sea level from tide gauges. We have performed a series of sensitivity runs with the NEP model for 1997-1998, which analyze the response of coastal sea level to: (1) hindcast winds and coastal runoff, as compared to their monthly climatologies and (2) hindcast boundary conditions (from the NPac model), as compared to their monthly climatologies. Results indicate penetration of sea-surface height (SSH) from the basin-scale model into the NEP domain (e.g., remote influence), with propagation as coastal trapped waves from Baja up through Alaska. Most of the coastal sea-level anomaly off Alaska in El Niño years appears due to direct forcing by local winds and runoff (local influence), and such anomalies are much stronger than those produced off California. We quantify these effects as a function of distance along the coastline, and consider how they might impact the coastal ecosystems of the NEP.

The CMEMS IBI-MFC Forecasting Service in 2017: Evolution and Novelties associated to the CMEMS service release

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorente, Pablo; Sotillo, Marcos G.; Gutknecht, Elodie; Dabrowski, Tomasz; Aouf, Lotfi; Toledano, Cristina; Amo-Baladron, Arancha; Aznar, Roland; De Pascual, Alvaro; Levier, Bruno; Bowyer, Peter; Rainaud, Romain; Alvarez-Fanjul, Enrique

2017-04-01

The IBI-MFC (Iberia-Biscay-Ireland Monitoring & Forecasting Centre) has been providing daily ocean model estimates and forecasts of diverse physical parameters for the IBI regional seas since 2011, first in the frame of MyOcean projects and later as part of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). By April 2017, coincident with the V3 CMEMS Service Release, the IBI-MFC will extend their near real time (NRT) forecast capabilities. Two new operational IBI forecast systems will be operationally run to generate high resolution biochemical (BIO) and wave (WAV) products on the IBI area. The IBI-NRT-BIO forecast system, based on a 1/36° NEMO-PISCES model application, is run once a week coupled with the IBI physical forecast solution and nested to the CMEMS GLOBAL-BIO solution. On the other hand, the IBI-NRT-WAV system, based on a MeteoFrance-WAM 10km resolution model application, runs twice a day using ECMWF wind forcing. Among other novelties related to the evolution of the IBI physical (PHY) solution, it is worthwhile mentioning the provision, as part of the IBI-NRT-PHY product daily updated, of three-dimensional hourly data on specific areas within the IBI domain. The delivery of these new hourly data along the whole water column has been achieved after the request from IBI users, in order to foster downscaling approaches by providing coherent open boundary conditions to any potential high-resolution coastal model nested to IBI regional solution. An extensive skill assessment of IBI-NRT forecast products has been conducted through the NARVAL (North Atlantic Regional VALidation) web tool, by means of the automatic computation of statistical metrics and quality indicators. By now, this tool has been focused on the validation of the IBI-NRT-PHY system. Nowadays, NARVAL is facing a significant upgrade to validate the aforementioned new biogeochemical and wave IBI products. To this aim, satellite derived observations of chlorophyll and significant wave height will be used, together with in-situ wave parameters measured by mooring buoys. Within this validation framework, special emphasis has been placed on the intercomparison of different forecast model solutions in overlapping areas in order to evaluate models' performances and prognostic capabilities. This common uncertainty estimates of IBI and other model solution is currently performed by NARVAL using both CMEMS forecast model sources (i.e. GLOBAL-MFC, MED-MFC and NWS-MFC) and non-CMEMS operational forecast solutions (mostly downstream application nested to the IBI solution). With respect to the IBI multi-year (MY) products, it is worth mentioning that the actual biogeochemical and physical reanalysis products will be re-run along year 2017, extending its time coverage backwards until 1992. Based on these IBI-MY products, a variety of climatic indicators related to essential oceanographic processes (i.e. western coastal upwelling or the Mediterranean Outflow Water) are currently being computed.

High-resolution modelling of waves, currents and sediment transport in the Catalan Sea.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez-Arcilla, Agustín; Grifoll, Manel; Pallares, Elena; Espino, Manuel

2013-04-01

In order to investigate coastal shelf dynamics, a sequence of high resolution multi-scale models have been implemented for the Catalan shelf (North-western Mediterranean Sea). The suite consists of a set of increasing-resolution nested models, based on the circulation model ROMS (Regional Ocean Modelling System), the wave model SWAN (Simulation Waves Nearshore) and the sediment transport model CSTM (Community Sediment Transport Model), covering different ranges of spatial (from ~1 km at shelf-slope regions to ~40 m around river mouth or local beaches) and temporal scales (from storms events to seasonal variability). Contributions in the understanding of local processes such as along-shelf dynamics in the inner-shelf, sediment dispersal from the river discharge or bi-directional wave-current interactions under different synoptic conditions and resolution have been obtained using the Catalan Coast as a pilot site. Numerical results have been compared with "ad-hoc" intensive field campaigns, data from observational models and remote sensing products. The results exhibit acceptable agreement with observations and the investigation has allowed developing generic knowledge and more efficient (process-based) strategies for the coastal and shelf management.

Consequences of least tern (Sternula antillarum) microhabitat nest-site selection on natural and mechanically constructed sandbars in the Missouri River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stucker, Jennifer H.; Buhl, Deborah A.; Sherfy, Mark H.

2013-01-01

Nest-habitat selection in colonial species has rarely been assessed at multiple spatial scales to evaluate its fitness consequences. Management for the federally endangered U.S. Interior population of Least Terns (Sternula antillarum) has focused on maintenance of breeding habitats, including mechanical construction of sandbars from dredged material. Least Terns are attracted to large areas of unvegetated substrate, yet small-scale habitat features are thought to trigger selection for nesting. We evaluated nest-scale habitat selection to determine (1) whether selection differs between constructed and natural sandbars and (2) the subsequent consequences of habitat selection on nest success. During 2006–2008, we examined 869 Least Tern nest sites on constructed and natural sandbars in the Missouri River for evidence of microhabitat selection at the nest in relation to habitat within the surrounding 3-m area. Least Tern nest sites had coarser and larger substrate materials at the nest, more debris, and less vegetation than the surrounding area. Nests in constructed habitats had a greater percentage of coarse substrates and less vegetation or debris than nests in naturally created habitats. Apparent nest success was 1.8× greater on constructed than on natural sandbars. Nest success was best predicted by models with two spatial scales of predictors, including substrates (nest) and vegetation and debris (nest or surrounding area). Our results indicate that Least Terns select nest microhabitat characteristics that are associated with wind- and water-scoured habitats, and that nest success increases when these habitats are selected.

Network-based model of the growth of termite nests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eom, Young-Ho; Perna, Andrea; Fortunato, Santo; Darrouzet, Eric; Theraulaz, Guy; Jost, Christian

2015-12-01

We present a model for the growth of the transportation network inside nests of the social insect subfamily Termitinae (Isoptera, termitidae). These nests consist of large chambers (nodes) connected by tunnels (edges). The model based on the empirical analysis of the real nest networks combined with pruning (edge removal, either random or weighted by betweenness centrality) and a memory effect (preferential growth from the latest added chambers) successfully predicts emergent nest properties (degree distribution, size of the largest connected component, average path lengths, backbone link ratios, and local graph redundancy). The two pruning alternatives can be associated with different genuses in the subfamily. A sensitivity analysis on the pruning and memory parameters indicates that Termitinae networks favor fast internal transportation over efficient defense strategies against ant predators. Our results provide an example of how complex network organization and efficient network properties can be generated from simple building rules based on local interactions and contribute to our understanding of the mechanisms that come into play for the formation of termite networks and of biological transportation networks in general.

Artificial nest predation in hedgerows and scrub forest in a human-dominated landscape of central Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuria, Iriana; Gates, J. Edward; Castellanos, Ignacio

2007-03-01

Hedgerows as well as other narrow corridors could be valuable habitats for birds in regions of intensive agriculture, however, it is still not clear how successful breeding birds are in different types of hedgerows as compared to birds nesting in their natural habitats. We used artificial nests to examine whether hedgerows were sinks (ecological traps) for birds by comparing rates of predation in two types of hedgerows with different vegetation structure (simple and complex), and in a tract of scrub forest in an agricultural landscape of central Mexico. We determined also the types of predators responsible for egg predation. Ground and elevated nests were baited with one Japanese quail Coturnix japonica egg and one plasticine egg and placed alternately along transects. Significantly, greater predation rates were found in scrub forest and complex hedgerows than in simple hedgerows. Higher predation rates in complex habitats seemed to reflect the higher number of predator types found there. The most important predator types were carnivores followed by rodents, birds, and humans. Carnivores and rodents mainly predated ground nests, whereas birds and humans predated elevated nests. Simple hedgerows in this landscape appeared to offer relatively safe nest sites in terms of predation pressure when compared to more complex habitats (complex hedgerows and scrub forest).

Nest suitability, fine-scale population structure and male-mediated dispersal of a solitary ground nesting bee in an urban landscape.

PubMed

López-Uribe, Margarita M; Morreale, Stephen J; Santiago, Christine K; Danforth, Bryan N

2015-01-01

Bees are the primary pollinators of flowering plants in almost all ecosystems. Worldwide declines in bee populations have raised awareness about the importance of their ecological role in maintaining ecosystem functioning. The naturally strong philopatric behavior that some bee species show can be detrimental to population viability through increased probability of inbreeding. Furthermore, bee populations found in human-altered landscapes, such as urban areas, can experience lower levels of gene flow and effective population sizes, increasing potential for inbreeding depression in wild bee populations. In this study, we investigated the fine-scale population structure of the solitary bee Colletes inaequalis in an urbanized landscape. First, we developed a predictive spatial model to detect suitable nesting habitat for this ground nesting bee and to inform our field search for nests. We genotyped 18 microsatellites in 548 female individuals collected from nest aggregations throughout the study area. Genetic relatedness estimates revealed that genetic similarity among individuals was slightly greater within nest aggregations than among randomly chosen individuals. However, genetic structure among nest aggregations was low (Nei's GST = 0.011). Reconstruction of parental genotypes revealed greater genetic relatedness among females than among males within nest aggregations, suggesting male-mediated dispersal as a potentially important mechanism of population connectivity and inbreeding avoidance. Size of nesting patch was positively correlated with effective population size, but not with other estimators of genetic diversity. We detected a positive trend between geographic distance and genetic differentiation between nest aggregations. Our landscape genetic models suggest that increased urbanization is likely associated with higher levels of inbreeding. Overall, these findings emphasize the importance of density and distribution of suitable nesting patches for enhancing bee population abundance and connectivity in human dominated habitats and highlights the critical contribution of landscape genetic studies for enhanced conservation and management of native pollinators.

Nest Suitability, Fine-Scale Population Structure and Male-Mediated Dispersal of a Solitary Ground Nesting Bee in an Urban Landscape

PubMed Central

López-Uribe, Margarita M.; Morreale, Stephen J.; Santiago, Christine K.; Danforth, Bryan N.

2015-01-01

Bees are the primary pollinators of flowering plants in almost all ecosystems. Worldwide declines in bee populations have raised awareness about the importance of their ecological role in maintaining ecosystem functioning. The naturally strong philopatric behavior that some bee species show can be detrimental to population viability through increased probability of inbreeding. Furthermore, bee populations found in human-altered landscapes, such as urban areas, can experience lower levels of gene flow and effective population sizes, increasing potential for inbreeding depression in wild bee populations. In this study, we investigated the fine-scale population structure of the solitary bee Colletes inaequalis in an urbanized landscape. First, we developed a predictive spatial model to detect suitable nesting habitat for this ground nesting bee and to inform our field search for nests. We genotyped 18 microsatellites in 548 female individuals collected from nest aggregations throughout the study area. Genetic relatedness estimates revealed that genetic similarity among individuals was slightly greater within nest aggregations than among randomly chosen individuals. However, genetic structure among nest aggregations was low (Nei’s GST = 0.011). Reconstruction of parental genotypes revealed greater genetic relatedness among females than among males within nest aggregations, suggesting male-mediated dispersal as a potentially important mechanism of population connectivity and inbreeding avoidance. Size of nesting patch was positively correlated with effective population size, but not with other estimators of genetic diversity. We detected a positive trend between geographic distance and genetic differentiation between nest aggregations. Our landscape genetic models suggest that increased urbanization is likely associated with higher levels of inbreeding. Overall, these findings emphasize the importance of density and distribution of suitable nesting patches for enhancing bee population abundance and connectivity in human dominated habitats and highlights the critical contribution of landscape genetic studies for enhanced conservation and management of native pollinators. PMID:25950429

Tests of landscape influence: Nest predation and brood parasitism in fragmented ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tewksbury, J.J.; Garner, L.; Garner, S.; Lloyd, J.D.; Saab, V.; Martin, T.E.

2006-01-01

The effects of landscape fragmentation on nest predation and brood parasitism, the two primary causes of avian reproductive failure, have been difficult to generalize across landscapes, yet few studies have clearly considered the context and spatial scale of fragmentation. Working in two river systems fragmented by agricultural and rural-housing development, we tracked nesting success and brood parasitism in >2500 bird nests in 38 patches of deciduous riparian woodland. Patches on both river systems were embedded in one of two local contexts (buffered from agriculture by coniferous forest, or adjacent to agriculture), but the abundance of agriculture and human habitation within 1 km of each patch was highly variable. We examined evidence for three models of landscape effects on nest predation based on (1) the relative importance of generalist agricultural nest predators, (2) predators associated with the natural habitats typically removed by agricultural development, or (3) an additive combination of these two predator communities. We found strong support for an additive predation model in which landscape features affect nest predation differently at different spatial scales. Riparian habitat with forest buffers had higher nest predation rates than sites adjacent to agriculture, but nest predation also increased with increasing agriculture in the larger landscape surrounding each site. These results suggest that predators living in remnant woodland buffers, as well as generalist nest predators associated with agriculture, affect nest predation rates, but they appear to respond at different spatial scales. Brood parasitism, in contrast, was unrelated to agricultural abundance on the landscape, but showed a strong nonlinear relationship with farm and house density, indicating a critical point at which increased human habitat causes increased brood parasitism. Accurate predictions regarding landscape effects on nest predation and brood parasitism will require an increased appreciation of the multiple scales at which landscape components influence predator and parasite behavior. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Effects of spatial disturbance on common loon nest site selection and territory success

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCarthy, K.P.; DeStefano, S.

2011-01-01

The common loon (Gavia immer) breeds during the summer on northern lakes and water bodies that are also often desirable areas for aquatic recreation and human habitation. In northern New England, we assessed how the spatial nature of disturbance affects common loon nest site selection and territory success. We found through classification and regression analysis that distance to and density of disturbance factors can be used to classify observed nest site locations versus random points, suggesting that these factors affect loon nest site selection (model 1: Correct classification = 75%, null = 50%, K = 0.507, P < 0.001; model 2: Correct classification = 78%, null = 50%, K = 0.551, P < 0.001). However, in an exploratory analysis, we were unable to show a relation between spatial disturbance variables and breeding success (P = 0.595, R 2 = 0.436), possibly because breeding success was so low during the breeding seasons of 2007-2008. We suggest that by selecting nest site locations that avoid disturbance factors, loons thereby limit the effect that disturbance will have on their breeding success. Still, disturbance may force loons to use sub-optimal nesting habitat, limiting the available number of territories, and overall productivity. We advise that management efforts focus on limiting disturbance factors to allow breeding pairs access to the best nesting territories, relieving disturbance pressures that may force sub-optimal nest placement. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Don't put all your eggs in one nest: spread them and cut time at risk.

PubMed

Andersson, Malte; Åhlund, Matti

2012-09-01

In many egg-laying animals, some females spread their clutch among several nests. The fitness effects of this reproductive tactic are obscure. Using mathematical modeling and field observations, we analyze an unexplored benefit of egg spreading in brood parasitic and other breeding systems: reduced time at risk for offspring. If a clutch takes many days to lay until incubation and embryo development starts after the last egg, by spreading her eggs a parasitic female can reduce offspring time in the vulnerable nest at risk of predation or other destruction. The model suggests that she can achieve much of this benefit by spreading her eggs among a few nests, even if her total clutch is large. Field data from goldeneye ducks Bucephala clangula show that egg spreading enables a fecund female to lay a clutch that is much larger than average without increasing offspring time at risk in a nest. This advantage increases with female condition (fecundity) and can markedly raise female reproductive success. These results help explain the puzzle of nesting parasites in some precocial birds, which lay eggs in the nests of other females before laying eggs in their own nest. Risk reduction by egg spreading may also play a role in the evolution of other breeding systems and taxa-for instance, polyandry with male parental care in some birds and fishes.

Nested Neural Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baram, Yoram

1992-01-01

Report presents analysis of nested neural networks, consisting of interconnected subnetworks. Analysis based on simplified mathematical models more appropriate for artificial electronic neural networks, partly applicable to biological neural networks. Nested structure allows for retrieval of individual subpatterns. Requires fewer wires and connection devices than fully connected networks, and allows for local reconstruction of damaged subnetworks without rewiring entire network.

Downscaling ocean conditions with application to the Gulf of Maine, Scotian Shelf and adjacent deep ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katavouta, Anna; Thompson, Keith R.

2016-08-01

The overall goal is to downscale ocean conditions predicted by an existing global prediction system and evaluate the results using observations from the Gulf of Maine, Scotian Shelf and adjacent deep ocean. The first step is to develop a one-way nested regional model and evaluate its predictions using observations from multiple sources including satellite-borne sensors of surface temperature and sea level, CTDs, Argo floats and moored current meters. It is shown that the regional model predicts more realistic fields than the global system on the shelf because it has higher resolution and includes tides that are absent from the global system. However, in deep water the regional model misplaces deep ocean eddies and meanders associated with the Gulf Stream. This is not because the regional model's dynamics are flawed but rather is the result of internally generated variability in deep water that leads to decoupling of the regional model from the global system. To overcome this problem, the next step is to spectrally nudge the regional model to the large scales (length scales > 90 km) of the global system. It is shown this leads to more realistic predictions off the shelf. Wavenumber spectra show that even though spectral nudging constrains the large scales, it does not suppress the variability on small scales; on the contrary, it favours the formation of eddies with length scales below the cutoff wavelength of the spectral nudging.

Projected changes over western Canada using convection-permitting regional climate model and the pseudo-global warming method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Kurkute, S.; Chen, L.

2017-12-01

Results from the General Circulation Models (GCMs) suggest more frequent and more severe extreme rain events in a climate warmer than the present. However, current GCMs cannot accurately simulate extreme rainfall events of short duration due to their coarse model resolutions and parameterizations. This limitation makes it difficult to provide the detailed quantitative information for the development of regional adaptation and mitigation strategies. Dynamical downscaling using nested Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are able to capture key regional and local climate processes with an affordable computational cost. Recent studies have demonstrated that the downscaling of GCM results with weather-permitting mesoscale models, such as the pseudo-global warming (PGW) technique, could be a viable and economical approach of obtaining valuable climate change information on regional scales. We have conducted a regional climate 4-km Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) simulation with one domain covering the whole western Canada, for a historic run (2000-2015) and a 15-year future run to 2100 and beyond with the PGW forcing. The 4-km resolution allows direct use of microphysics and resolves the convection explicitly, thus providing very convincing spatial detail. With this high-resolution simulation, we are able to study the convective mechanisms, specifically the control of convections over the Prairies, the projected changes of rainfall regimes, and the shift of the convective mechanisms in a warming climate, which has never been examined before numerically at such large scale with such high resolution.

Changes in vegetation structure in seeded nesting cover in the prairie pothole region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Higgins, K.F.; Barker, W.T.

1982-01-01

A sample of 365 stands of seeded nesting cover (mixtures of cool-season grasses and legumes) was studied in the glaciated prairie pothole region during 1977-79. Measurements of species composition, canopy cover, plant height, and visual obstruction values differed with stand age but only in a general way when results from over the entire region were pooled. Maximum values for plant height and visual obstruction occurred once per stand during the first 10 growing seasons. Although the year of maximum growth was variable and unpredictable, stands showed trends of degeneration in height and visual obstruction after the year of maximum growth.Seeded nesting cover grew similarly throughout the region when on soils of capability class IV or better and within a precipitation range of 30 to 61 cm. Precipitation was the factor that most affected stand growth, especially the amount received in the year before spring measurements. Height and visual obstruction values within a stand were also directly affected by some individual species and by the percentage of grass within a stand. In 2 of the 3 study years, the height and visual obstruction values of residual cover were extremely reduced by ice pack, heavy snow pack, or a combination of snow pack and harvest by rodents. Such events, if frequent, largely negate the possibility of using minimum visual obstruction or plant height measurements for assessing quality of vegetation for wildlife cover and management purposes.Species composition, number of species, and canopy cover varied most during the first three growing seasons and least during the next six. Succession toward dominance by native grasses and forbs and woody species was retarded by the predominance of the species of seeded nesting cover, at least during the first 10 growing seasons.All stands had at least one species present that was either a noxious weed, a problem cropland weed, or a nuisance weed. Weeds were usually local in distribution. Five weed species needing special management attention on public lands are leafy spurge (Euphorbia podperae), wormwood (Artemisia absinthium), Canada thistle (Cirsium arvense), musk thistle (Carduus nutans), and plumeless thistle (Carduus acanthoides). Sites disturbed by mammal diggings or those skipped during planting operations became revegetated mostly with species other than those of seeded nesting cover.Successfully established stands on good sites provided substantial food and cover for wildlife for at least 6 years and retained stand composition for at least 10 years. Further study will be necessary to determine longevity of these stands. Except for mandatory noxious weed control, no management treatments of seeded nesting cover were necessary before the seventh growing season, at which time some stands needed renovation. The primary goals for management of seeded nesting cover should be stand quality and longevity. Guidelines to these goals are suggested.

Spawning chronology, nest site selection and nest success of smallmouth bass during benign streamflow conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dauwalter, D.C.; Fisher, W.L.

2007-01-01

We documented the nesting chronology, nest site selection and nest success of smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu in an upstream (4th order) and downstream (5th order) reach of Baron Fork Creek, Oklahoma. Males started nesting in mid-Apr. when water temperatures increased to 16.9 C upstream, and in late-Apr. when temperatures increased to 16.2 C downstream. Streamflows were low (77% upstream to 82% downstream of mean Apr. streamflow, and 12 and 18% of meanjun. streamflow; 47 and 55 y of record), and decreased throughout the spawning period. Larger males nested first upstream, as has been observed in other populations, but not downstream. Upstream, progeny in 62 of 153 nests developed to swim-up stage. Downstream, progeny in 31 of 73 nests developed to swim-up. Nesting densities upstream (147/km) and downstream (100/km) were both higher than any densities previously reported. Males selected nest sites with intermediate water depths, low water velocity and near cover, behavior that is typical of smallmouth bass. Documented nest failures resulted from human disturbance, angling, and longear sunfish predation. Logistic exposure models showed that water velocity at the nest was negatively related and length of the guarding male was positively related to nest success upstream. Male length and number of degree days were both positively related to nest success downstream. Our results, and those of other studies, suggest that biological factors account for most nest failures during benign (stable, low flow) streamflow conditions, whereas nest failures attributed to substrate mobility or nest abandonment dominate when harsh streamflow conditions (spring floods) coincide with the spawning season.

Cross-scale assessment of potential habitat shifts in a rapidly changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Bella, Elizabeth S.; Carlson, Matthew L.; Graziano, Gino; Lamb, Melinda; Seefeldt, Steven S.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2014-01-01

We assessed the ability of climatic, environmental, and anthropogenic variables to predict areas of high-risk for plant invasion and consider the relative importance and contribution of these predictor variables by considering two spatial scales in a region of rapidly changing climate. We created predictive distribution models, using Maxent, for three highly invasive plant species (Canada thistle, white sweetclover, and reed canarygrass) in Alaska at both a regional scale and a local scale. Regional scale models encompassed southern coastal Alaska and were developed from topographic and climatic data at a 2 km (1.2 mi) spatial resolution. Models were applied to future climate (2030). Local scale models were spatially nested within the regional area; these models incorporated physiographic and anthropogenic variables at a 30 m (98.4 ft) resolution. Regional and local models performed well (AUC values > 0.7), with the exception of one species at each spatial scale. Regional models predict an increase in area of suitable habitat for all species by 2030 with a general shift to higher elevation areas; however, the distribution of each species was driven by different climate and topographical variables. In contrast local models indicate that distance to right-of-ways and elevation are associated with habitat suitability for all three species at this spatial level. Combining results from regional models, capturing long-term distribution, and local models, capturing near-term establishment and distribution, offers a new and effective tool for highlighting at-risk areas and provides insight on how variables acting at different scales contribute to suitability predictions. The combinations also provides easy comparison, highlighting agreement between the two scales, where long-term distribution factors predict suitability while near-term do not and vice versa.

Construction patterns of birds’ nests provide insight into nest-building behaviours

PubMed Central

Goodman, Adrian M.

2017-01-01

Previous studies have suggested that birds and mammals select materials needed for nest building based on their thermal or structural properties, although the amounts or properties of the materials used have been recorded for only a very small number of species. Some of the behaviours underlying the construction of nests can be indirectly determined by careful deconstruction of the structure and measurement of the biomechanical properties of the materials used. Here we examined this idea in an investigation of Bullfinch (Pyrrhula pyrrhula) nests as a model for open-nesting songbird species that construct a “twig” nest, and tested the hypothesis that materials in different parts of nests serve different functions. The quantities of materials present in the nest base, sides and cup were recorded before structural analysis. Structural analysis showed that the base of the outer nests were composed of significantly thicker, stronger and more rigid materials compared to the side walls, which in turn were significantly thicker, stronger and more rigid than materials used in the cup. These results suggest that the placement of particular materials in nests may not be random, but further work is required to determine if the final structure of a nest accurately reflects the construction process. PMID:28265501

Influence of land use and climate on wetland breeding birds in the Prairie Pothole region of Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Forcey, G.M.; Linz, G.M.; Thogmartin, W.E.; Bleier, W.J.

2007-01-01

Bird populations are influenced by a variety of factors at both small and large scales that range from the presence of suitable nesting habitat, predators, and food supplies to climate conditions and land-use patterns. We evaluated the influences of regional climate and land-use variables on wetland breeding birds in the Canada section of Bird Conservation Region 11 (CA-BCR11), the Prairie Potholes. We used bird abundance data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, land-use data from the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration, and weather data from the National Climatic Data and Information Archive to model effects of regional environmental variables on bird abundance. Models were constructed a priori using information from published habitat associations in the literature, and fitting was performed with WinBUGS using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Both land-use and climate variables contributed to predicting bird abundance in CA-BCR11, although climate predictors contributed the most to improving model fit. Examination of regional effects of climate and land use on wetland birds in CA-BCR11 revealed relationships with environmental covariates that are often overlooked by small-scale habitat studies. Results from these studies can be used to improve conservation and management planning for regional populations of avifauna. ?? 2007 NRC.

Technical manual for basic version of the Markov chain nest productivity model (MCnest)

EPA Science Inventory

The Markov Chain Nest Productivity Model (or MCnest) integrates existing toxicity information from three standardized avian toxicity tests with information on species life history and the timing of pesticide applications relative to the timing of avian breeding seasons to quantit...

User’s manual for basic version of MCnest Markov chain nest productivity model

EPA Science Inventory

The Markov Chain Nest Productivity Model (or MCnest) integrates existing toxicity information from three standardized avian toxicity tests with information on species life history and the timing of pesticide applications relative to the timing of avian breeding seasons to quantit...

Nest-niche differentiation in two sympatric columbid species from a Mediterranean Tetraclinis woodland: Considerations for forest management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanane, Saâd; Yassin, Mohamed

2017-01-01

Studies of niche partitioning among Columbid species have mainly addressed food habits and foraging activities, while partitioning in relation to nest-niche differentiation has been little studied. Here we investigate whether two sympatric columbid species-Woodpigeon (Columba palumbus) and Turtle dove (Streptopelia turtur)-occupy similar niches. A total of 74 nests were monitored: 37 nests for each species. The study, conducted in June 2016, attempted to determine the factors that may play a role in nest-niche differentiation among the two sympatric columbid species in a Moroccan Thuya (Tetraclinis articulata) forest. We used Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) to test the relevance of nest placement, proximity of food resources, forest edge and human presence variables in the nest distribution of the two species. The results show substantial niche segregation in the T. articulata nest-trees selected by Woodpigeons and Turtle doves, with selection depending primarily on the tree size and nest height. Observed nest-niche partitioning may diminish the potential for competition between these species and enhance opportunities for their coexistence. Management policies and practices aimed at ensuring the presence of mixed-sized class of Thuya trees must be prioritized. We recommend additional studies designed to: (1) reproduce the same experimental approach on other Mediterranean Thuya forests to improve our understanding of the effects of different levels of anthropogenic disturbance on the breeding behaviour of these two game species; (2) better understand the spatio-temporal dynamics of Woodpigeon and Turtle dove coexistence in the region; and (3) better identify the spatio-temporal extent of the effect of forest management on Woodpigeon and Turtle dove site occupancy.

Field Margins, Foraging Distances and Their Impacts on Nesting Pollinator Success

PubMed Central

Rands, Sean A.; Whitney, Heather M.

2011-01-01

The areas of wild land around the edges of agricultural fields are a vital resource for many species. These include insect pollinators, to whom field margins provide both nest sites and important resources (especially when adjacent crops are not in flower). Nesting pollinators travel relatively short distances from the nest to forage: most species of bee are known to travel less than two kilometres away. In order to ensure that these pollinators have sufficient areas of wild land within reach of their nests, agricultural landscapes need to be designed to accommodate the limited travelling distances of nesting pollinators. We used a spatially-explicit modelling approach to consider whether increasing the width of wild strips of land within the agricultural landscape will enhance the amount of wild resources available to a nesting pollinator, and if it would impact differently on pollinators with differing foraging strategies. This was done both by creating field structures with a randomised geography, and by using landscape data based upon the British agricultural landscape. These models demonstrate that enhancing field margins should lead to an increase in the availability of forage to pollinators that nest within the landscape. With the exception of species that only forage within a very short range of their nest (less than 125 m), a given amount of field margin manipulation should enhance the proportion of land available to a pollinator for foraging regardless of the distance over which it normally travels to find food. A fixed amount of field edge manipulation should therefore be equally beneficial for both longer-distance nesting foragers such as honeybees, and short-distance foragers such as solitary bees. PMID:21991390

Variation in spring migration routes and breeding distribution of northern pintails Anas acuta that winter in Japan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hupp, Jerry W.; Yamaguchi, Noriyuki; Flint, Paul L.; Pearce, John M.; Tokita, Ken-ichi; Shimada, Tetsuo; Ramey, Andrew M.; Kharitonov, Sergei; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi

2011-01-01

In North America, spring migration routes and breeding distribution of northern pintails Anas acuta vary because some individuals opportunistically nest at mid-latitudes in years when ephemeral prairie wetlands are available, whereas others regularly nest in arctic and sub-arctic regions where wetland abundance is more constant. Less was known about migration routes and breeding distribution of pintails in East Asia. From 2007–2009 we marked 198 pintails on their wintering areas in Japan with satellite transmitters to: 1) document spring migration routes and summer distribution, 2) evaluate migratory connections and breeding season sympatry with North American pintails, and 3) determine if pintails used the same migration routes in fall as in spring. Most pintails (67%) migrated to the Kamchatka or Chukotka peninsulas in eastern Russia either directly from Japan or via Sakhalin Island, Russia. Remaining pintails primarily migrated to the Magadan region or Kolyma River Basin in eastern Russia via Sakhalin Island. The Chukotka Peninsula was the most common summer destination, with highest densities in the Anadyr Lowlands; a region also used by pintails that migrate from North America. One pintail migrated to St. Lawrence Island, Alaska, in spring and another briefly migrated to the western coast of Alaska in fall. Autumn migration routes generally mirrored spring migration although most pintails bypassed Sakhalin Island in fall. Compared to North American pintails, pintails that winter in Japan exhibited less variation in migration routes and breeding distribution, and nested at higher latitudes. In the Russian Far East there is no region with habitats comparable in extent to the ephemeral mid-latitude wetlands of North America. Consequently, East Asian pintails mainly nest in arctic and sub-arctic regions where annual consistency in wetlands promotes constancy in migration routes and breeding distribution. Breeding season sympatry between pintails from different continents results more from North American pintails migrating to eastern Russia than from Japanese pintails migrating to North America.

Nested archetypes of vulnerability in African drylands: where lies potential for sustainable agricultural intensification?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sietz, D.; Ordoñez, J. C.; Kok, M. T. J.; Janssen, P.; Hilderink, H. B. M.; Tittonell, P.; Van Dijk, H.

2017-09-01

Food production is key to achieving food security in the drylands of sub-Saharan Africa. Since agricultural productivity is limited, however, due to inherent agro-ecological constraints and land degradation, sustainable agricultural intensification has been widely discussed as an opportunity for improving food security and reducing vulnerability. Yet vulnerability determinants are distributed heterogeneously in the drylands of sub-Saharan Africa and sustainable intensification cannot be achieved everywhere in cost-effective and efficient ways. To better understand the heterogeneity of farming systems’ vulnerability in order to support decision making at regional scales, we present archetypes, i.e. socio-ecological patterns, of farming systems’ vulnerability in the drylands of sub-Saharan Africa and reveal their nestedness. We quantitatively indicated the most relevant farming systems’ properties at a sub-national resolution. These factors included water availability, agro-ecological potential, erosion sensitivity, population pressure, urbanisation, remoteness, governance, income and undernourishment. Cluster analysis revealed eight broad archetypes of vulnerability across all drylands of sub-Saharan Africa. The broad archetype representing better governance and highest remoteness in extremely dry and resource-constrained regions encompassed the largest area share (19%), mainly indicated in western Africa. Moreover, six nested archetypes were identified within those regions with better agropotential and prevalent agricultural livelihoods. Among these patterns, the nested archetype depicting regions with highest erosion sensitivity, severe undernourishment and lower agropotential represented the largest population (30%) and area (28%) share, mainly found in the Sahel region. The nested archetype indicating medium undernourishment, better governance and lowest erosion sensitivity showed particular potential for sustainable agricultural intensification, mainly in western and some parts of southeastern and eastern Africa. Insights into the nestedness of archetypes allowed a more differentiated discussion of vulnerability and sustainable intensification opportunities, enhancing the evaluation of key interlinkages between land management and food security. The archetypes may support the transfer of successful intensification strategies based on similarities among the drylands in sub-Saharan Africa.

Lifespan Analyses of Forest Raptor Nests: Patterns of Creation, Persistence and Reuse

PubMed Central

Jiménez-Franco, María V.; Martínez, José E.; Calvo, José F.

2014-01-01

Structural elements for breeding such as nests are key resources for the conservation of bird populations. This is especially true when structural elements require a specific and restricted habitat, or if the construction of nests is costly in time and energy. The availability of nesting-platforms is influenced by nest creation and persistence. In a Mediterranean forest in southeastern Spain, nesting-platforms are the only structural element for three forest-dwelling raptor species: booted eagle Aquila pennata, common buzzard Buteo buteo and northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis. From 1998 to 2013, we tracked the fate of 157 nesting-platforms built and reused by these species with the aim of determining the rates of creation and destruction of nesting-platforms, estimating nest persistence by applying two survival analyses, describing the pattern of nest reuse and testing the effects of nest use on breeding success. Nest creation and destruction rates were low (0.14 and 0.05, respectively). Using Kaplan Meier survival estimates and Cox proportional-hazards regression models we found that median nest longevity was 12 years and that this was not significantly affected by nest characteristics, nest-tree dimensions, nest-builder species, or frequency of use of the platform. We also estimated a transition matrix, considering the different stages of nest occupation (vacant or occupied by one of the focal species), to obtain the fundamental matrix and the average life expectancies of nests, which varied from 17.9 to 19.7 years. Eighty six percent of nests were used in at least one breeding attempt, 67.5% were reused and 17.8% were successively occupied by at least two of the study species. The frequency of nest use had no significant effects on the breeding success of any species. We conclude that nesting-platforms constitute an important resource for forest raptors and that their longevity is sufficiently high to allow their reuse in multiple breeding attempts. PMID:24717935

Lifespan analyses of forest raptor nests: patterns of creation, persistence and reuse.

PubMed

Jiménez-Franco, María V; Martínez, José E; Calvo, José F

2014-01-01

Structural elements for breeding such as nests are key resources for the conservation of bird populations. This is especially true when structural elements require a specific and restricted habitat, or if the construction of nests is costly in time and energy. The availability of nesting-platforms is influenced by nest creation and persistence. In a Mediterranean forest in southeastern Spain, nesting-platforms are the only structural element for three forest-dwelling raptor species: booted eagle Aquila pennata, common buzzard Buteo buteo and northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis. From 1998 to 2013, we tracked the fate of 157 nesting-platforms built and reused by these species with the aim of determining the rates of creation and destruction of nesting-platforms, estimating nest persistence by applying two survival analyses, describing the pattern of nest reuse and testing the effects of nest use on breeding success. Nest creation and destruction rates were low (0.14 and 0.05, respectively). Using Kaplan Meier survival estimates and Cox proportional-hazards regression models we found that median nest longevity was 12 years and that this was not significantly affected by nest characteristics, nest-tree dimensions, nest-builder species, or frequency of use of the platform. We also estimated a transition matrix, considering the different stages of nest occupation (vacant or occupied by one of the focal species), to obtain the fundamental matrix and the average life expectancies of nests, which varied from 17.9 to 19.7 years. Eighty six percent of nests were used in at least one breeding attempt, 67.5% were reused and 17.8% were successively occupied by at least two of the study species. The frequency of nest use had no significant effects on the breeding success of any species. We conclude that nesting-platforms constitute an important resource for forest raptors and that their longevity is sufficiently high to allow their reuse in multiple breeding attempts.

Three-level multilevel growth models for nested change data: a guide for group treatment researchers.

PubMed

Tasca, Giorgio A; Illing, Vanessa; Joyce, Anthony S; Ogrodniczuk, John S

2009-07-01

Researchers have known for years about the negative impact on Type I error rates caused by dependencies in hierarchically nested and longitudinal data. Despite this, group treatment researchers do not consistently use methods such as multilevel models (MLMs) to assess dependence and appropriately analyse their nested data. The goals of this study are to review some of the study design issues with regard to hierarchically nested and longitudinal data, discuss MLMs for assessing and handling dependence in data, and present a guide for developing a three-level growth MLM that is appropriate for group treatment data, design, and research questions. The authors present an example from group treatment research to illustrate these issues and methods.

The St. Catherine`s sea turtle conservation program: Modeling effective science education through conservation and research partnerships

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

March, N.B.; Bishop, G.

1994-12-31

Georgia school teachers served eight to ten day internships as research colleagues on St. Catherine`s island, Georgia. Interns monitored daily nesting activity, evaluated possible nests, validated egg chambers, screened the nests, and monitored each nest daily and assessed hatching success by excavation upon emergence of hatchlings. The real-world, hands-on holistic field experience immersed school teachers in the problems of executing a natural history conservation project integrating scientific content and methodology, mathematical analysis, and computer documentation. Outcomes included increased scientific inquiry, reduced science anxiety, heightened self-confidence, and enhanced credibility with students and colleagues. This educational model is applicable to many areasmore » and problems.« less

A Structured and Unstructured grid Relocatable ocean platform for Forecasting (SURF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trotta, Francesco; Fenu, Elisa; Pinardi, Nadia; Bruciaferri, Diego; Giacomelli, Luca; Federico, Ivan; Coppini, Giovanni

2016-11-01

We present a numerical platform named Structured and Unstructured grid Relocatable ocean platform for Forecasting (SURF). The platform is developed for short-time forecasts and is designed to be embedded in any region of the large-scale Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) via downscaling. We employ CTD data collected during a campaign around the Elba island to calibrate and validate SURF. The model requires an initial spin up period of a few days in order to adapt the initial interpolated fields and the subsequent solutions to the higher-resolution nested grids adopted by SURF. Through a comparison with the CTD data, we quantify the improvement obtained by SURF model compared to the coarse-resolution MFS model.

Two unusual hepatitis C virus subtypes, 2j and 2q, in Spain: Identification by nested-PCR and sequencing of a NS5B region.

PubMed

Margall, N; March, F; Español, M; Torras, X; Gallego, A; Coll, P

2015-10-01

Many studies have reported the use of the NS5B gene to subtype hepatitis C virus (HCV). Other HCV genes, such as HCV-5' UTR, Core (C) and E1, have also been used. In some studies, NS5B have been used together with 5'-UTR or C genes to improve genotyping results obtained using commercial procedures. Only two studies in Spain have compared molecular techniques versus commercial procedures regarding the efficacy of HCV subtyping. The aim of this study was to determine whether nested PCR and sequencing of a NS5B region was more reliable than commercial procedures to subtype HCV. We analyzed the results of HCV genotyping in [726] serum specimens collected from 2001 to 2013. From 2001 to 2011, we used PCR and INNO-LiPA hybridization or its new version Versant HCV Genotype 2.0 assay (471 samples). From 2012 to 2013, we used nested PCR and sequencing of a NS5B region (255 cases). This method used two pairs of primers to amplify the RNA of the sample converted to DNA by retrotranscription. The amplification product of 270 base pairs was further sequenced. To identify the subtype, the sequences obtained were compared to those in the international database: http://hcv.lanl.gov./content/sequence/, HCV/ToolsOutline.html and Geno2pheno[hcv] http://hcv.bioinf.mpi-inf.mpg.de/index.php. Nested PCR of a NS5B region and sequencing identified all but one subtype (0.4%, 1/255), differentiated all 1a subtypes from 1b subtypes, and characterized all HCV 2-4 subtypes. This approach also distinguished two subtypes, 2j and 2q, that had rarely been detected previously in Spain. However, commercial procedures failed to subtype 12.7% (60/471) of samples and to genotype 0.6% of specimens (3/471). Nested PCR and sequencing of a NS5B region improved the subtyping of HCV in comparison with classical procedures and identified two rare subtypes in Spain: 2j and 2q. However, full length genome sequencing is recommended to confirm HCV 2j and 2q subtypes. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The Antsy Social Network: Determinants of Nest Structure and Arrangement in Asian Weaver Ants.

PubMed

Devarajan, Kadambari

2016-01-01

Asian weaver ants (Oecophylla smaragdina) are arboreal ants that are known to form mutualistic complexes with their host trees. They are eusocial ants that build elaborate nests in the canopy in tropical areas. A colony comprises of multiple nests, usually on multiple trees, and the boundaries of the colony may be difficult to identify. However, they provide the ideal model for studying group living in invertebrates since there are a definite number of nests for a given substrate, the tree. Here, we briefly examine the structure of the nests and the processes involved in the construction and maintenance of these nests. We have described the spatial arrangement of weaver ant nests on trees in two distinct tropical clusters, a few hundred kilometres apart in India. Measurements were made for 13 trees with a total of 71 nests in the two field sites. We have considered a host of biotic and abiotic factors that may be crucial in determining the location of the nesting site by Asian weaver ants. Our results indicate that tree characteristics and architecture followed by leaf features help determine nest location in Asian weaver ants. While environmental factors may not be as influential to nest arrangement, they seem to be important determinants of nest structure. The parameters that may be considered in establishing the nests could be crucial in picking the evolutionary drivers for colonial living in social organisms.

An Odds Ratio Approach for Detecting DDF under the Nested Logit Modeling Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Terzi, Ragip; Suh, Youngsuk

2015-01-01

An odds ratio approach (ORA) under the framework of a nested logit model was proposed for evaluating differential distractor functioning (DDF) in multiple-choice items and was compared with an existing ORA developed under the nominal response model. The performances of the two ORAs for detecting DDF were investigated through an extensive…

Relationships of habitat patch size to predator community and survival of duck nests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sovada, M.A.; Zicus, M.C.; Greenwood, R.J.; Rave, D.P.; Newton, W.E.; Woodward, R.O.; Beiser, J.A.

2000-01-01

We studied duck nest success and predator community composition in relation to size of discrete patches of nesting cover in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States in 1993-95. We focused on nests in uplands that were seeded to perennial grasses and forbs and enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) in Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota. We estimated daily survival rates (DSRs) of upland duck nests and indices of activity for red foxes (Vulpes vulpes), coyotes (Canis latrans), American badgers (Taxidea taxus), striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis), and Franklin's ground squirrels (Spermophilus franklinii), and related these variables to habitat patch size. The effect of patch size (small vs. large) on estimated annual mean DSR was dependent on date of nest initiation (early vs. late) and year. Examination of within-year comparisons for early and late nests suggested that DSR was generally greater in larger habitat patches. Activity indices for the 5 mammalian nest predators were influenced differently by year, location, and patch size. Activity indices of the red fox were greatest in small patches. Coyote indices were the most inconsistent, demonstrating a year X location X patch size interaction. Activity indices of the striped skunk and American badger varied only among years. Franklin's ground squirrel indices were affected by study area location, with higher indices in the southeast than the northwest. Red fox activity was weakly correlated with that of the striped skunk and coyote. Although a positive relationship between habitat patch size and nest success probably exists, we believe the experiment to fully test this hypothesis will continue to be elusive.

Firewalls in bee nests—survival value of propolis walls of wild Cape honeybee ( Apis mellifera capensis)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tribe, Geoff; Tautz, Jürgen; Sternberg, Karin; Cullinan, Jenny

2017-04-01

The Cape bee is endemic to the winter rainfall region of South Africa where fires are an integral part of the ecology of the fynbos (heathland) vegetation. Of the 37 wild nests in pristine Peninsula Sandstone Fynbos in the Cape Point section of Table Mountain National Park that have been analyzed so far, only 22 could be accessed sufficiently to determine the existence of a propolis wall of which 68% had propolis walls which entirely enclosed their openings. The analysis of the 37 wild nests revealed that 78% occurred under boulders or in clefts within rocks, 11% in the ground, 8% in tree cavities, and 3% within shrubs. The analysis of 17 of these nests following a fire within the park revealed that the propolis walls materially protected the nests and retarded the fire with all the colonies surviving. The bees responded to the smoke by imbibing honey and retreating to the furthest recess of their nest cavity. The bees were required to utilize this honey for about 3 weeks after which fire-loving plants appeared and began flowering. Considerable resources were utilized in the construction of the propolis walls, which ranged in thickness from 1.5 to 40 mm (mean 5 mm). Its physical environment determines the nesting behavior of the Cape bee. The prolific use of propolis serves to insulate the nest from extremes of temperature and humidity, restricts entry, camouflages the nest, and acts as an effective fire barrier protecting nests established mostly under rocks in vegetation subjected to periodic fires.

Modelling pollination services across agricultural landscapes

PubMed Central

Lonsdorf, Eric; Kremen, Claire; Ricketts, Taylor; Winfree, Rachael; Williams, Neal; Greenleaf, Sarah

2009-01-01

Background and Aims Crop pollination by bees and other animals is an essential ecosystem service. Ensuring the maintenance of the service requires a full understanding of the contributions of landscape elements to pollinator populations and crop pollination. Here, the first quantitative model that predicts pollinator abundance on a landscape is described and tested. Methods Using information on pollinator nesting resources, floral resources and foraging distances, the model predicts the relative abundance of pollinators within nesting habitats. From these nesting areas, it then predicts relative abundances of pollinators on the farms requiring pollination services. Model outputs are compared with data from coffee in Costa Rica, watermelon and sunflower in California and watermelon in New Jersey–Pennsylvania (NJPA). Key Results Results from Costa Rica and California, comparing field estimates of pollinator abundance, richness or services with model estimates, are encouraging, explaining up to 80 % of variance among farms. However, the model did not predict observed pollinator abundances on NJPA, so continued model improvement and testing are necessary. The inability of the model to predict pollinator abundances in the NJPA landscape may be due to not accounting for fine-scale floral and nesting resources within the landscapes surrounding farms, rather than the logic of our model. Conclusions The importance of fine-scale resources for pollinator service delivery was supported by sensitivity analyses indicating that the model's predictions depend largely on estimates of nesting and floral resources within crops. Despite the need for more research at the finer-scale, the approach fills an important gap by providing quantitative and mechanistic model from which to evaluate policy decisions and develop land-use plans that promote pollination conservation and service delivery. PMID:19324897

One-way coupling of an atmospheric and a hydrologic model in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, L.E.; Clark, M.P.; Pagowski, M.; Leavesley, G.H.; Gutowski, W.J.

2006-01-01

This paper examines the accuracy of high-resolution nested mesoscale model simulations of surface climate. The nesting capabilities of the atmospheric fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University (PSU)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) were used to create high-resolution, 5-yr climate simulations (from 1 October 1994 through 30 September 1999), starting with a coarse nest of 20 km for the western United States. During this 5-yr period, two finer-resolution nests (5 and 1.7 km) were run over the Yampa River basin in northwestern Colorado. Raw and bias-corrected daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature time series from the three MM5 nests were used as input to the U.S. Geological Survey's distributed hydrologic model [the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS)] and were compared with PRMS results using measured climate station data. The distributed capabilities of PRMS were provided by partitioning the Yampa River basin into hydrologic response units (HRUs). In addition to the classic polygon method of HRU definition, HRUs for PRMS were defined based on the three MM5 nests. This resulted in 16 datasets being tested using PRMS. The input datasets were derived using measured station data and raw and bias-corrected MM5 20-, 5-, and 1.7-km output distributed to 1) polygon HRUs and 2) 20-, 5-, and 1.7-km-gridded HRUs, respectively. Each dataset was calibrated independently, using a multiobjective, stepwise automated procedure. Final results showed a general increase in the accuracy of simulated runoff with an increase in HRU resolution. In all steps of the calibration procedure, the station-based simulations of runoff showed higher accuracy than the MM5-based simulations, although the accuracy of MM5 simulations was close to station data for the high-resolution nests. Further work is warranted in identifying the causes of the biases in MM5 local climate simulations and developing methods to remove them. ?? 2006 American Meteorological Society.

Latitudinal variation in reproductive strategies by the migratory Louisiana Waterthrush

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mattsson, B.J.; Latta, S.C.; Cooper, R.J.; Mulvihill, R.S.

2011-01-01

We evaluated hypotheses that seek to explain breeding strategies of the Louisiana Waterthrush (Parkesia motacilla) that vary across a latitudinal gradient. On the basis of data from 418 nests of color-banded individuals in southwestern Pennsylvania and 700 km south in the Georgia Piedmont, we found that clutch size in replacement nests and probability of renesting were significantly greater in Pennsylvania (clutch size 4.4; renesting probability 0.66) than in Georgia (clutch size 3.8; renesting probability 0.54). Contrasts of the remaining measures of breeding were not statistically significant, and, in particular, mean daily nest survival in the two study areas was nearly identical (0.974 in Pennsylvania; 0.975 in Georgia). An individual-based model of fecundity (i.e., number of fledged young per adult female), predicted that approximately half of the females in both Pennsylvania and Georgia fledge at least one young, and mean values for fecundity in Pennsylvania and Georgia were 2.28 and 1.91, respectively. On the basis of greater support for the food-limitation hypothesis than for the season-length hypothesis, the trade-off between breeding in a region with more food but making a longer migration may be greater for waterthrushes breeding farther north than for those breeding farther south. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2011.

Beneficial effects of dietary EGCG and voluntary exercise on behavior in an Alzheimer's disease mouse model.

PubMed

Walker, Jennifer M; Klakotskaia, Diana; Ajit, Deepa; Weisman, Gary A; Wood, W Gibson; Sun, Grace Y; Serfozo, Peter; Simonyi, Agnes; Schachtman, Todd R

2015-01-01

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive, age-dependent neurodegenerative disorder affecting specific brain regions that control memory and cognitive functions. Epidemiological studies suggest that exercise and dietary antioxidants are beneficial in reducing AD risk. To date, botanical flavonoids are consistently associated with the prevention of age-related diseases. The present study investigated the effects of 4 months of wheel-running exercise, initiated at 2-months of age, in conjunction with the effects of the green tea catechin (-)-epigallocatechin-3-gallate (EGCG) administered orally in the drinking water (50 mg/kg daily) on: (1) behavioral measures: learning and memory performance in the Barnes maze, nest building, open-field, anxiety in the light-dark box; and (2) soluble amyloid-β (Aβ) levels in the cortex and hippocampus in TgCRND8 (Tg) mice. Untreated Tg mice showed hyperactivity, relatively poor nest building behaviors, and deficits in spatial learning in the Barnes maze. Both EGCG and voluntary exercise, separately and in combination, were able to attenuate nest building and Barnes maze performance deficits. Additionally, these interventions lowered soluble Aβ1-42 levels in the cortex and hippocampus. These results, together with epidemiological and clinical studies in humans, suggest that dietary polyphenols and exercise may have beneficial effects on brain health and slow the progression of AD.

Factors affecting nest survival of Henslow's Sparrows (Ammodramus henslowii) in southern Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crimmins, Shawn M.; McKann, Patrick C.; Robb, Joseph R.; Lewis, Jason P.; Vanosdol, Teresa; Walker, Benjamin A.; Williams, Perry J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.

2016-01-01

Populations of Henslow’s Sparrows have declined dramatically in recent decades, coinciding with widespread loss of native grassland habitat. Prescribed burning is a primary tool for maintaining grassland patches, but its effects on nest survival of Henslow’s Sparrows remains largely unknown, especially in conjunction with other factors. We monitored 135 nests of Henslow’s Sparrows at Big Oaks National Wildlife Refuge in southern Indiana from 1998–2001 in an effort to understand factors influencing nest survival, including prescribed burning of habitat. We used a mixed-effects implementation of the logistic exposure model to predict daily nest survival in an information theoretic framework. We found that daily survival declined near the onset of hatching and increased with the height of standing dead vegetation, although this relationship was weak. We found only nominal support to suggest that time since burn influenced nest survival. Overall, nest age was the most important factor in estimating daily nest survival rates. Our daily survival estimate from our marginal model (0.937) was similar to that derived from the Mayfield method (0.944) suggesting that our results are comparable to previous studies using the Mayfield approach. Our results indicate that frequent burning to limit woody encroachment into grassland habitats might benefit Henslow’s Sparrow, but that a variety of factors ultimately influence daily nest survival. However, we note that burning too frequently can also limit occupancy by Henslow’s Sparrows. We suggest that additional research is needed to determine the population-level consequences of habitat alteration and if other extrinsic factors influence demographics of Henslow’s Sparrows.

User's Manual MCnest - Markov Chain Nest Productivity Model Version 2.0

EPA Science Inventory

The Markov chain nest productivity model, or MCnest, is a set of algorithms for integrating the results of avian toxicity tests with reproductive life-history data to project the relative magnitude of chemical effects on avian reproduction. The mathematical foundation of MCnest i...

Tide-surge interaction along the east coast of the Leizhou Peninsula, South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Heng; Cheng, Weicong; Qiu, Xixi; Feng, Xiangbo; Gong, Wenping

2017-06-01

A triply-nested two-dimensional (2D) ocean circulation model along with observed sea level records are used to study tide-surge interaction along the east coast of the Leizhou Peninsula (LP) which is characterized by extensive mudflats, large tidal ranges and a complex coastline. The dependency of surge maxima on the water level and the phase of tide are respectively investigated using two statistical approaches. Results show that tide-surge interaction along the east coast of the LP is significant, where surges peak 3-6 h before or after the nearest high water. The triply-nested 2D ocean circulation model is used to quantify tide-surge interaction in this region and to investigate its physical cause. The largest amplitudes of tide-surge interaction are found in the shallow water region of the Leizhou Bay, with values up to 1 m during typhoon events. Numerical experiments reveal that nonlinear bottom friction is the main contributor to tide-surge interaction, while the contribution of the nonlinear advective effect can be neglected. The shallow water effect enhances the role of nonlinear bottom friction in determining tide-surge modulation, leaving the surge peaks usually occur on the rising or falling tide. It is also found that the relative contribution of local wind and remote wind is different depending on the storm track and storm intensity, which would finally affect the temporal and spatial distribution of tide-surge interaction during typhoon events. These findings confirm the importance of coupling storm surges and tides for the prediction of storm surge events in regions which are characterized by shallow water depths and large tidal ranges.

The brain as a system of nested but partially overlapping networks. Heuristic relevance of the model for brain physiology and pathology.

PubMed

Agnati, L F; Guidolin, D; Fuxe, K

2007-01-01

A new model of the brain organization is proposed. The model is based on the assumption that a global molecular network enmeshes the entire central nervous system. Thus, brain extra-cellular and intra-cellular molecular networks are proposed to communicate at the level of special plasma membrane regions (e.g., the lipid rafts) where horizontal molecular networks can represent input/output regions allowing the cell to have informational exchanges with the extracellular environment. Furthermore, some "pervasive signals" such as field potentials, pressure waves and thermal gradients that affect large parts of the brain cellular and molecular networks are discussed. Finally, at least two learning paradigms are analyzed taking into account the possible role of Volume Transmission: the so-called model of "temporal difference learning" and the "Turing B-unorganised machine". The relevance of this new view of brain organization for a deeper understanding of some neurophysiological and neuropathological aspects of its function is briefly discussed.

Enhancing the management response to oil spills in the Tuscany Archipelago through operational modelling.

PubMed

Janeiro, João; Zacharioudaki, Anna; Sarhadi, Ehsan; Neves, Augusto; Martins, Flávio

2014-08-30

A new approach towards the management of oil pollution accidents in marine sensitive areas is presented in this work. A set of nested models in a downscaling philosophy was implemented, externally forced by existing regional operational products. The 3D hydrodynamics, turbulence and the oil transport/weathering models are all linked in the same system, sharing the same code, exchanging information in real time and improving its ability to correctly reproduce the spill. A wind-generated wave model is also implemented using the same downscaling philosophy. Observations from several sources validated the numerical components of the system. The results obtained highlight the good performance of the system and its ability to be applied for oil spill forecasts in the region. The success of the methodology described in this paper was underline during the Costa Concordia accident, where a high resolution domain was rapidly created and deployed inside the system covering the accident site. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Air quality modeling for the urban Jackson, Mississippi Region using a high resolution WRF/Chem model.

PubMed

Yerramilli, Anjaneyulu; Dodla, Venkata B; Desamsetti, Srinivas; Challa, Srinivas V; Young, John H; Patrick, Chuck; Baham, Julius M; Hughes, Robert L; Yerramilli, Sudha; Tuluri, Francis; Hardy, Mark G; Swanier, Shelton J

2011-06-01

In this study, an attempt was made to simulate the air quality with reference to ozone over the Jackson (Mississippi) region using an online WRF/Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting-Chemistry) model. The WRF/Chem model has the advantages of the integration of the meteorological and chemistry modules with the same computational grid and same physical parameterizations and includes the feedback between the atmospheric chemistry and physical processes. The model was designed to have three nested domains with the inner-most domain covering the study region with a resolution of 1 km. The model was integrated for 48 hours continuously starting from 0000 UTC of 6 June 2006 and the evolution of surface ozone and other precursor pollutants were analyzed. The model simulated atmospheric flow fields and distributions of NO2 and O3 were evaluated for each of the three different time periods. The GIS based spatial distribution maps for ozone, its precursors NO, NO2, CO and HONO and the back trajectories indicate that all the mobile sources in Jackson, Ridgeland and Madison contributing significantly for their formation. The present study demonstrates the applicability of WRF/Chem model to generate quantitative information at high spatial and temporal resolution for the development of decision support systems for air quality regulatory agencies and health administrators.

A Methodological Review of Statistical Methods for Handling Multilevel Non-Nested Longitudinal Data in Educational Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sun, Shuyan; Pan, Wei

2014-01-01

As applications of multilevel modelling in educational research increase, researchers realize that multilevel data collected in many educational settings are often not purely nested. The most common multilevel non-nested data structure is one that involves student mobility in longitudinal studies. This article provides a methodological review of…

Complete excavation and mapping of a Texas leafcutting ant nest

Treesearch

John C. Moser

2006-01-01

A medium-sized nest of the Texas leafcutting ant, Atta texana (Buckley), in northern Louisiana was excavated completely, and a three-dimensional model of its external and subterranean features was constructed. In total, 97 fungus gardens, 27 dormancy cavities, and 45 detritus cavities were located. At the lower center of the funnel-shaped nest was a...

Nesting fidelity and molecular evidence for natal homing in the freshwater turtle, Graptemys kohnii

PubMed Central

Freedberg, Steven; Ewert, Michael A; Ridenhour, Benjamin J; Neiman, Maurine; Nelson, Craig E

2005-01-01

Numerous studies of sea turtle nesting ecology have revealed that females exhibit natal homing, whereby they imprint on the nesting area from which they hatch and subsequently return there to nest as adults. Because freshwater turtles comprise the majority of reptiles known to display environmental sex determination (ESD), the study of natal homing in this group may shed light on recent evolutionary models of sex allocation that are predicated on natal homing in reptiles with ESD. We examined natal homing in Graptemys kohnii, a freshwater turtle with ESD, using mitochondrial sequencing, microsatellite genotyping and mark and recapture of 290 nesting females. Females showed high fidelity to nesting areas, even after being transplanted several kilometres away. A Mantel test revealed significant genetic isolation by distance with respect to nesting locations (r=0.147; p<0.05), suggesting that related females nest in close proximity to one another. The patterns of fidelity and genotype distributions are consistent with homing at a scale that may affect population sex ratios. PMID:16006324

Structural and Practical Identifiability Issues of Immuno-Epidemiological Vector-Host Models with Application to Rift Valley Fever.

PubMed

Tuncer, Necibe; Gulbudak, Hayriye; Cannataro, Vincent L; Martcheva, Maia

2016-09-01

In this article, we discuss the structural and practical identifiability of a nested immuno-epidemiological model of arbovirus diseases, where host-vector transmission rate, host recovery, and disease-induced death rates are governed by the within-host immune system. We incorporate the newest ideas and the most up-to-date features of numerical methods to fit multi-scale models to multi-scale data. For an immunological model, we use Rift Valley Fever Virus (RVFV) time-series data obtained from livestock under laboratory experiments, and for an epidemiological model we incorporate a human compartment to the nested model and use the number of human RVFV cases reported by the CDC during the 2006-2007 Kenya outbreak. We show that the immunological model is not structurally identifiable for the measurements of time-series viremia concentrations in the host. Thus, we study the non-dimensionalized and scaled versions of the immunological model and prove that both are structurally globally identifiable. After fixing estimated parameter values for the immunological model derived from the scaled model, we develop a numerical method to fit observable RVFV epidemiological data to the nested model for the remaining parameter values of the multi-scale system. For the given (CDC) data set, Monte Carlo simulations indicate that only three parameters of the epidemiological model are practically identifiable when the immune model parameters are fixed. Alternatively, we fit the multi-scale data to the multi-scale model simultaneously. Monte Carlo simulations for the simultaneous fitting suggest that the parameters of the immunological model and the parameters of the immuno-epidemiological model are practically identifiable. We suggest that analytic approaches for studying the structural identifiability of nested models are a necessity, so that identifiable parameter combinations can be derived to reparameterize the nested model to obtain an identifiable one. This is a crucial step in developing multi-scale models which explain multi-scale data.

Synthesis of Remote Sensing and Field Observations to Model and Understand Disturbance and Climate Effects on the Carbon Balance of Oregon & Northern California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beverly Law; David Turner; Warren Cohen

2008-05-22

The goal is to quantify and explain the carbon (C) budget for Oregon and N. California. The research compares "bottom -up" and "top-down" methods, and develops prototype analytical systems for regional analysis of the carbon balance that are potentially applicable to other continental regions, and that can be used to explore climate, disturbance and land-use effects on the carbon cycle. Objectives are: 1) Improve, test and apply a bottom up approach that synthesizes a spatially nested hierarchy of observations (multispectral remote sensing, inventories, flux and extensive sites), and the Biome-BGC model to quantify the C balance across the region; 2)more » Improve, test and apply a top down approach for regional and global C flux modeling that uses a model-data fusion scheme (MODIS products, AmeriFlux, atmospheric CO2 concentration network), and a boundary layer model to estimate net ecosystem production (NEP) across the region and partition it among GPP, R(a) and R(h). 3) Provide critical understanding of the controls on regional C balance (how NEP and carbon stocks are influenced by disturbance from fire and management, land use, and interannual climate variation). The key science questions are, "What are the magnitudes and distributions of C sources and sinks on seasonal to decadal time scales, and what processes are controlling their dynamics? What are regional spatial and temporal variations of C sources and sinks? What are the errors and uncertainties in the data products and results (i.e., in situ observations, remote sensing, models)?« less

Hawksbill turtle terra incognita: conservation genetics of eastern Pacific rookeries.

PubMed

Gaos, Alexander R; Lewison, Rebecca L; Liles, Michael J; Gadea, Velkiss; Altamirano, Eduardo; Henríquez, Ana V; Torres, Perla; Urteaga, José; Vallejo, Felipe; Baquero, Andres; LeMarie, Carolina; Muñoz, Juan Pablo; Chaves, Jaime A; Hart, Catherine E; Peña de Niz, Alejandro; Chácon, Didiher; Fonseca, Luis; Otterstrom, Sarah; Yañez, Ingrid L; LaCasella, Erin L; Frey, Amy; Jensen, Michael P; Dutton, Peter H

2016-02-01

Prior to 2008 and the discovery of several important hawksbill turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata) nesting colonies in the EP (Eastern Pacific), the species was considered virtually absent from the region. Research since that time has yielded new insights into EP hawksbills, salient among them being the use of mangrove estuaries for nesting. These recent revelations have raised interest in the genetic characterization of hawksbills in the EP, studies of which have remained lacking to date. Between 2008 and 2014, we collected tissue samples from 269 nesting hawksbills at nine rookeries across the EP and used mitochondrial DNA sequences (766 bp) to generate the first genetic characterization of rookeries in the region. Our results inform genetic diversity, population differentiation, and phylogeography of the species. Hawksbills in the EP demonstrate low genetic diversity: We identified a total of only seven haplotypes across the region, including five new and two previously identified nesting haplotypes (pooled frequencies of 58.4% and 41.6%, respectively), the former only evident in Central American rookeries. Despite low genetic diversity, we found strong stock structure between the four principal rookeries, suggesting the existence of multiple populations and warranting their recognition as distinct management units. Furthermore, haplotypes EiIP106 and EiIP108 are unique to hawksbills that nest in mangrove estuaries, a behavior found only in hawksbills along Pacific Central America. The detected genetic differentiation supports the existence of a novel mangrove estuary "reproductive ecotype" that may warrant additional conservation attention. From a phylogeographic perspective, our research indicates hawksbills colonized the EP via the Indo-Pacific, and do not represent relict populations isolated from the Atlantic by the rising of the Panama Isthmus. Low overall genetic diversity in the EP is likely the combined result of few rookeries, extremely small reproductive populations and evolutionarily recent colonization events. Additional research with larger sample sizes and variable markers will help further genetic understanding of hawksbill turtles in the EP.

Comparison of statistical sampling methods with ScannerBit, the GAMBIT scanning module

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez, Gregory D.; McKay, James; Farmer, Ben; Scott, Pat; Roebber, Elinore; Putze, Antje; Conrad, Jan

2017-11-01

We introduce ScannerBit, the statistics and sampling module of the public, open-source global fitting framework GAMBIT. ScannerBit provides a standardised interface to different sampling algorithms, enabling the use and comparison of multiple computational methods for inferring profile likelihoods, Bayesian posteriors, and other statistical quantities. The current version offers random, grid, raster, nested sampling, differential evolution, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and ensemble Monte Carlo samplers. We also announce the release of a new standalone differential evolution sampler, Diver, and describe its design, usage and interface to ScannerBit. We subject Diver and three other samplers (the nested sampler MultiNest, the MCMC GreAT, and the native ScannerBit implementation of the ensemble Monte Carlo algorithm T-Walk) to a battery of statistical tests. For this we use a realistic physical likelihood function, based on the scalar singlet model of dark matter. We examine the performance of each sampler as a function of its adjustable settings, and the dimensionality of the sampling problem. We evaluate performance on four metrics: optimality of the best fit found, completeness in exploring the best-fit region, number of likelihood evaluations, and total runtime. For Bayesian posterior estimation at high resolution, T-Walk provides the most accurate and timely mapping of the full parameter space. For profile likelihood analysis in less than about ten dimensions, we find that Diver and MultiNest score similarly in terms of best fit and speed, outperforming GreAT and T-Walk; in ten or more dimensions, Diver substantially outperforms the other three samplers on all metrics.

Regional Climate Modeling over the Marmara Region, Turkey, with Improved Land Cover Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sertel, E.; Robock, A.

2007-12-01

Land surface controls the partitioning of available energy at the surface between sensible and latent heat,and controls partitioning of available water between evaporation and runoff. Current land cover data available within the regional climate models such as Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), the Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) was obtained from 1- km Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer satellite images spanning April 1992 through March 1993 with an unsupervised classification technique. These data are not up-to-date and are not accurate for all regions and some land cover types such as urban areas. Here we introduce new, up-to-date and accurate land cover data for the Marmara Region, Turkey derived from Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper images into the WRF regional climate model. We used several image processing techniques to create accurate land cover data from Landsat images obtained between 2001 and 2005. First, all images were atmospherically and radiometrically corrected to minimize contamination effects of atmospheric particles and systematic errors. Then, geometric correction was performed for each image to eliminate geometric distortions and define images in a common coordinate system. Finally, unsupervised and supervised classification techniques were utilized to form the most accurate land cover data yet for the study area. Accuracy assessments of the classifications were performed using error matrix and kappa statistics to find the best classification results. Maximum likelihood classification method gave the most accurate results over the study area. We compared the new land cover data with the default WRF land cover data. WRF land cover data cannot represent urban areas in the cities of Istanbul, Izmit, and Bursa. As an example, both original satellite images and new land cover data showed the expansion of urban areas into the Istanbul metropolitan area, but in the WRF land cover data only a limited area along the Bosporus is shown as urban. In addition, the new land cover data indicate that the northern part of Istanbul is covered by evergreen and deciduous forest (verified by ground truth data), but the WRF data indicate that most of this region is croplands. In the northern part of the Marmara Region, there is bare ground as a result of open mining activities and this class can be identified in our land cover data, whereas the WRF data indicated this region as woodland. We then used this new data set to conduct WRF simulations for one main and two nested domains, where the inner-most domain represents the Marmara Region with 3 km horizontal resolution. The vertical domain of both main and nested domains extends over 28 vertical levels. Initial and boundary conditions were obtained from National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy Reanalysis II and the Noah model was selected as the land surface model. Two model simulations were conducted; one with available land cover data and one with the newly created land cover data. Using detailed meteorological station data within the study area, we find that the simulation with the new land cover data set produces better temperature and precipitation simulations for the region, showing the value of accurate land cover data and that changing land cover data can be an important influence on local climate change.

Role of degeneracy, hybridization, and nesting in the properties of multiorbital systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nicholson, Andrew D; Liu, Jia-Ming; Ge, Weihao

2011-01-01

To understand the role that degeneracy, hybridization, and nesting play in the magnetic and pairing properties of multiorbital Hubbard models we here study numerically two types of two-orbital models, both with holelike and electron-like Fermi surfaces (FS s) that are related by nesting vectors ( ,0) and (0, ). In one case the bands that determine the FS s arise from strongly hybridized degenerate dxz and dyz orbitals, while in the other the two bands are determined by nondegenerate and nonhybridized s-like orbitals. Using a variety of techniques, in the weak-coupling regime it is shown that only the model withmore » hybridized bands develops metallic magnetic order, while the other model exhibits an ordered excitonic orbital-transverse spin state that is insulating and does not have a local magnetization. However, both models display similar insulating magnetic stripe ordering in the strong-coupling limit. These results indicate that nesting is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the development of ordered states with finite local magnetization in multiorbital Hubbard systems; the additional ingredient appears to be that the nested portions of the bands need to have the same orbital flavor. This condition can be achieved via strong hybridization of the orbitals in weak coupling or via the FS reconstruction induced by the Coulomb interactions in the strong-coupling regime. This effect also affects the pairing symmetry as demonstrated by the study of the dominant pairing channels for the two models.« less

Nested Structural Equation Models: Noncentrality and Power of Restriction Test.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko; Penev, Spiridon

1998-01-01

Discusses the difference in noncentrality parameters of nested structural equation models and their utility in evaluating statistical power associated with the pertinent restriction test. Asymptotic confidence intervals for that difference are presented. These intervals represent a useful adjunct to goodness-of-fit indexes in assessing constraints…

Avian life history profiles for use in the Markov chain nest productivity model (MCnest)

EPA Science Inventory

The Markov Chain nest productivity model, or MCnest, quantitatively estimates the effects of pesticides or other toxic chemicals on annual reproductive success of avian species (Bennett and Etterson 2013, Etterson and Bennett 2013). The Basic Version of MCnest was developed as a...

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Operational Forecast Graphics Experimental Forecast Graphics Verification and Diagnostics Model Configuration consists of the following components: - The NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) version of the Non updates for the 12 km parent domain and the 3 km CONUS/Alaska nests. The non-cycled nests (Hawaii, Puerto

Effect of Methodological and Ecological Approaches on Heterogeneity of Nest-Site Selection of a Long-Lived Vulture

PubMed Central

Moreno-Opo, Rubén; Fernández-Olalla, Mariana; Margalida, Antoni; Arredondo, Ángel; Guil, Francisco

2012-01-01

The application of scientific-based conservation measures requires that sampling methodologies in studies modelling similar ecological aspects produce comparable results making easier their interpretation. We aimed to show how the choice of different methodological and ecological approaches can affect conclusions in nest-site selection studies along different Palearctic meta-populations of an indicator species. First, a multivariate analysis of the variables affecting nest-site selection in a breeding colony of cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus) in central Spain was performed. Then, a meta-analysis was applied to establish how methodological and habitat-type factors determine differences and similarities in the results obtained by previous studies that have modelled the forest breeding habitat of the species. Our results revealed patterns in nesting-habitat modelling by the cinereous vulture throughout its whole range: steep and south-facing slopes, great cover of large trees and distance to human activities were generally selected. The ratio and situation of the studied plots (nests/random), the use of plots vs. polygons as sampling units and the number of years of data set determined the variability explained by the model. Moreover, a greater size of the breeding colony implied that ecological and geomorphological variables at landscape level were more influential. Additionally, human activities affected in greater proportion to colonies situated in Mediterranean forests. For the first time, a meta-analysis regarding the factors determining nest-site selection heterogeneity for a single species at broad scale was achieved. It is essential to homogenize and coordinate experimental design in modelling the selection of species' ecological requirements in order to avoid that differences in results among studies would be due to methodological heterogeneity. This would optimize best conservation and management practices for habitats and species in a global context. PMID:22413023

Effects of spatial disturbance on common loon nest site selection and territory success

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCarthy, Kyle P.; DeStefano, Stephen

2011-01-01

The common loon (Gavia immer) breeds during the summer on northern lakes and water bodies that are also often desirable areas for aquatic recreation and human habitation. In northern New England, we assessed how the spatial nature of disturbance affects common loon nest site selection and territory success. We found through classification and regression analysis that distance to and density of disturbance factors can be used to classify observed nest site locations versus random points, suggesting that these factors affect loon nest site selection (model 1: Correct classification = 75%, null = 50%, K = 0.507, P < 0.001; model 2: Correct classification = 78%, null = 50%, K = 0.551, P < 0.001). However, in an exploratory analysis, we were unable to show a relation between spatial disturbance variables and breeding success (P = 0.595, R2 = 0.436), possibly because breeding success was so low during the breeding seasons of 2007–2008. We suggest that by selecting nest site locations that avoid disturbance factors, loons thereby limit the effect that disturbance will have on their breeding success. Still, disturbance may force loons to use sub-optimal nesting habitat, limiting the available number of territories, and overall productivity. We advise that management efforts focus on limiting disturbance factors to allow breeding pairs access to the best nesting territories, relieving disturbance pressures that may force sub-optimal nest placement.

Nesting behaviour influences species-specific gas exchange across avian eggshells.

PubMed

Portugal, Steven J; Maurer, Golo; Thomas, Gavin H; Hauber, Mark E; Grim, Tomáš; Cassey, Phillip

2014-09-15

Carefully controlled gas exchange across the eggshell is essential for the development of the avian embryo. Water vapour conductance (G(H2O)) across the shell, typically measured as mass loss during incubation, has been demonstrated to optimally ensure the healthy development of the embryo while avoiding desiccation. Accordingly, eggs exposed to sub-optimal gas exchange have reduced hatching success. We tested the association between eggshell G(H2O) and putative life-history correlates of adult birds, ecological nest parameters and physical characteristics of the egg itself to investigate how variation in G(H2O) has evolved to maintain optimal water loss across a diverse set of nest environments. We measured gas exchange through eggshell fragments in 151 British breeding bird species and fitted phylogenetically controlled, general linear models to test the relationship between G(H2O) and potential predictor parameters of each species. Of our 17 life-history traits, only two were retained in the final model: wet-incubating parent and nest type. Eggs of species where the parent habitually returned to the nest with wet plumage had significantly higher G(H2O) than those of parents that returned to the nest with dry plumage. Eggs of species nesting in ground burrows, cliffs and arboreal cups had significantly higher G(H2O) than those of species nesting on the ground in open nests or cups, in tree cavities and in shallow arboreal nests. Phylogenetic signal (measured as Pagel's λ) was intermediate in magnitude, suggesting that differences observed in the G(H2O) are dependent upon a combination of shared ancestry and species-specific life history and ecological traits. Although these data are correlational by nature, they are consistent with the hypothesis that parents constrained to return to the nest with wet plumage will increase the humidity of the nest environment, and the eggs of these species have evolved a higher G(H2O) to overcome this constraint and still achieve optimal water loss during incubation. We also suggest that eggs laid in cup nests and burrows may require a higher G(H2O) to overcome the increased humidity as a result from the confined nest microclimate lacking air movements through the nest. Taken together, these comparative data imply that species-specific levels of gas exchange across avian eggshells are variable and evolve in response to ecological and physical variation resulting from parental and nesting behaviours. © 2014. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Comparison of Microscopy, Nested-PCR, and Real-Time-PCR Assays Using High-Throughput Screening of Pooled Samples for Diagnosis of Malaria in Asymptomatic Carriers from Areas of Endemicity in Myanmar

PubMed Central

Wang, Bo; Han, Soe-Soe; Cho, Cho; Han, Jin-Hee; Cheng, Yang; Lee, Seong-Kyun; Galappaththy, Gawrie N. L; Thimasarn, Krongthong; Soe, Myat Thu; Oo, Htet Wai; Kyaw, Myat Phone

2014-01-01

Asymptomatic infection is an important obstacle for controlling disease in countries where malaria is endemic. Because asymptomatic carriers do not seek treatment for their infections, they can have high levels of gametocytes and constitute a reservoir available for new infection. We employed a sample pooling/PCR-based molecular detection strategy for screening malaria infection in residents from areas of Myanmar where malaria is endemic. Blood samples (n = 1,552) were collected from residents in three areas of malaria endemicity (Kayin State, Bago, and Tanintharyi regions) of Myanmar. Two nested PCR and real-time PCR assays showed that asymptomatic infection was detected in about 1.0% to 9.4% of residents from the surveyed areas. The sensitivities of the two nested PCR and real-time PCR techniques were higher than that of microscopy examination (sensitivity, 100% versus 26.4%; kappa values, 0.2 to 0.5). Among the three regions, parasite-positive samples were highly detected in subjects from the Bago and Tanintharyi regions. Active surveillance of residents from regions of intense malaria transmission would reduce the risk of morbidity and mitigate transmission to the population in these areas of endemicity. Our data demonstrate that PCR-based molecular techniques are more efficient than microscopy for nationwide surveillance of malaria in countries where malaria is endemic. PMID:24648557

Multiscale Processes in Magnetic Reconnection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surjalal Sharma, A.; Jain, Neeraj

The characteristic scales of the plasma processes in magnetic reconnection range from the elec-tron skin-depth to the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) scale, and cross-scale coupling among them play a key role. Modeling these processes requires different physical models, viz. kinetic, electron-magnetohydrodynamics (EMHD), Hall-MHD, and MHD. The shortest scale processes are at the electron scale and these are modeled using an EMHD code, which provides many features of the multiscale behavior. In simulations using initial conditions consisting of pertur-bations with many scale sizes the reconnection takes place at many sites and the plasma flows from these interact with each other. This leads to thin current sheets with length less than 10 electron skin depths. The plasma flows also generate current sheets with multiple peaks, as observed by Cluster. The quadrupole structure of the magnetic field during reconnection starts on the electron scale and the interaction of inflow to the secondary sites and outflow from the dominant site generates a nested structure. In the outflow regions, the interaction of the electron outflows generated at the neighboring sites lead to the development of electron vortices. A signature of the nested structure of the Hall field is seen in Cluster observations, and more details of these features are expected from MMS.

Simulation of summertime ozone over North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacob, Daniel J.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Yevich, Rose M.; Gardner, Geraldine M.; Spivakovsky, Clarisa M.; Wofsy, Steven C.; Munger, J. W.; Sillman, Sanford; Prather, Michael J.; Rogers, Michael O.

1993-01-01

The concentrations of O3 and its precursors over North America are simulated for three summer months with a 3D, continental-scale photochemical model using meteorological input from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. The model has 4 x 5 deg grid resolution and represents nonlinear chemistry in urban and industrial plumes with a subgrid nested scheme. Simulated median afternoon O3 concentrations at rural U.S. sites are within 5 ppb of observations in most cases, except in the south central U.S., where concentrations are overpredicted by 15-20 ppb. The model captures successfully the development of regional high-O3 episodes over the northeastern United States on the back side of weak, warm, stagnant anticyclones. Simulated concentrations of CO and nonmethane hydrocarbons are generally in good agreement with observations, concentrations of NO(x) are underpredicted by 10-30 percent, and concentrations of PANs are overpredicted by a factor of 2 to 3. The overprediction of PANs is attributed to flaws in the photochemical mechanism, including excessive production from oxidation of isoprene, and may also reflect an underestimate of PANs deposition. Subgrid nonlinear chemistry as captured by the nested plumes scheme decreases the net O3 production computed in the U.S. boundary layer by 8 percent on average.

Advances in the regionalization approach: geostatistical techniques for estimating flood quantiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiarello, Valentina; Caporali, Enrica; Matthies, Hermann G.

2015-04-01

The knowledge of peak flow discharges and associated floods is of primary importance in engineering practice for planning of water resources and risk assessment. Streamflow characteristics are usually estimated starting from measurements of river discharges at stream gauging stations. However, the lack of observations at site of interest as well as the measurement inaccuracies, bring inevitably to the necessity of developing predictive models. Regional analysis is a classical approach to estimate river flow characteristics at sites where little or no data exists. Specific techniques are needed to regionalize the hydrological variables over the considered area. Top-kriging or topological kriging, is a kriging interpolation procedure that takes into account the geometric organization and structure of hydrographic network, the catchment area and the nested nature of catchments. The continuous processes in space defined for the point variables are represented by a variogram. In Top-kriging, the measurements are not point values but are defined over a non-zero catchment area. Top-kriging is applied here over the geographical space of Tuscany Region, in Central Italy. The analysis is carried out on the discharge data of 57 consistent runoff gauges, recorded from 1923 to 2014. Top-kriging give also an estimation of the prediction uncertainty in addition to the prediction itself. The results are validated using a cross-validation procedure implemented in the package rtop of the open source statistical environment R The results are compared through different error measurement methods. Top-kriging seems to perform better in nested catchments and larger scale catchments but no for headwater or where there is a high variability for neighbouring catchments.

Synchrony of Piping Plover breeding populations in the U.S. Northern Great Plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roche, Erin A.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Dovichin, Colin M.; Sherfy, Mark H.; Anteau, Michael J.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.

2016-01-01

Local populations that fluctuate synchronously are at a greater risk of extinction than those that do not. The closer the geographic proximity of populations, the more prone they are to synchronizing. Shorebird species select habitat broadly, and many breed across regions with diverse nesting habitat types. Under these conditions, nearby populations may experience conditions sufficiently different to prevent population synchrony, despite dispersal. In the U.S. Northern Great Plains, the Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus), federally listed as Threatened, is a migratory shorebird species that nests on the shorelines of rivers, reservoirs, and alkaline lakes. We assessed the degree to which local plover breeding population abundances were correlated (population synchrony), changed over time (population stability), and were influenced by environmental factors such as available habitat, precipitation, and within-season reservoir level rise. We found that the abundances of breeding populations nesting in riverine and reservoir habitats were the most synchronous, while populations nesting in alkaline lake habitats exhibited the greatest stability. Changes in local breeding population abundances were not explained by a single factor across habitat types. However, the abundances of local populations nesting in alkaline lake and river shoreline habitats were positively correlated with changes in nesting habitat availability. Our results suggest that dispersal among populations nesting in either river or reservoir and alkaline lake shoreline habitat may have an overall stabilizing effect on the persistence of the Great Plains Piping Plover metapopulation.

Are there optimal densities for prairie birds?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skagen, S.K.; Adams, A.A.Y.

2010-01-01

The major forces of food and predation shape fitness-enhancing decisions of birds at all stages of their life cycles. During the breeding season, birds can minimize nest loss due to predation by selecting sites with a lower probability of predation. To understand the environmental and social aspects and consequences of breedingsite selection in prairie birds, we explored variation in nest-survival patterns of the Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys) in the shortgrass prairie region of North America. Over four breeding seasons, we documented the survival of 405 nests, conducted 60 surveys to estimate bird densities, and measured several vegetative features to describe habitat structure in 24 randomly selected study plots. Nest survival varied with the buntings' density as described by a quadratic polynomial, increasing with density below 1.5 birds ha-1 and decreasing with density between 1.5 and 3 birds ha-1, suggesting that an optimal range of densities favors reproductive success of the Lark Bunting, which nests semi-colonially. Nest survival also increased with increasing vegetation structure of study plots and varied with age of the nest, increasing during early incubation and late in the nestling stage and declining slightly from mid-incubation to the middle of the nestling period. The existence of an optimal range of densities in this semi-colonial species can be elucidated by the "commodity-selection hypothesis" at low densities and density dependence at high densities. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2010.

Provisioning rates and time budgets of adult and nestling Bald Eagles at Inland Wisconsin nests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keith, Warnke D.; Andersen, D.E.; Dykstra, C.R.; Meyer, M.W.; Karasov, W.H.

2002-01-01

We used a remote video recording system and direct observation to quantify provisioning rate and adult and nestling behavior at Bald Eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) nests in north-central Wisconsin in 1992 (N = 5) and 1993 (N = 8). Eagles nesting in this region have a high reproductive rate (??? 1.3 young/occupied territory), and the number of occupied territories has expanded nearly three-fold since 1980. The season-long provisioning rate averaged 5.2 prey deliveries/nest/d and 3.0 prey deliveries/nestling/d, and did not vary by year or with nestling number or age. Fish (Osteichthyes) made up 97% of identified prey deliveries followed by reptiles (Reptilia) (1.5%), birds (Aves) (1.2%), and mammals (Mammalia) (0.6%). Nearly 85% of prey items were >15 cm and 90% of the day and was negatively correlated with nestling age. Time adults spent feeding nestlings was negatively correlated with nestling age. Nestlings stood or sat in the nest >30% of the day, began to feed themselves, and exhibited increased mobility in the nest at 6-8 wk. We identified three stages of the nestling period and several benchmarks that may be useful when scheduling data collection for comparison of Bald Eagle nesting behavior. Our results support the hypothesis that food was not limiting this breeding population of Bald Eagles. ?? 2002 The Raptor Research Foundation, Inc.

Posterior Wnts Have Distinct Roles in Specification and Patterning of the Planarian Posterior Region

PubMed Central

Sureda-Gómez, Miquel; Pascual-Carreras, Eudald; Adell, Teresa

2015-01-01

The wnt signaling pathway is an intercellular communication mechanism essential in cell-fate specification, tissue patterning and regional-identity specification. A βcatenin-dependent signal specifies the AP (Anteroposterior) axis of planarians, both during regeneration of new tissues and during normal homeostasis. Accordingly, four wnts (posterior wnts) are expressed in a nested manner in central and posterior regions of planarians. We have analyzed the specific role of each posterior wnt and the possible cooperation between them in specifying and patterning planarian central and posterior regions. We show that each posterior wnt exerts a distinct role during re-specification and maintenance of the central and posterior planarian regions, and that the integration of the different wnt signals (βcatenin dependent and independent) underlies the patterning of the AP axis from the central region to the tip of the tail. Based on these findings and data from the literature, we propose a model for patterning the planarian AP axis. PMID:26556349

Posterior Wnts Have Distinct Roles in Specification and Patterning of the Planarian Posterior Region.

PubMed

Sureda-Gómez, Miquel; Pascual-Carreras, Eudald; Adell, Teresa

2015-11-05

The wnt signaling pathway is an intercellular communication mechanism essential in cell-fate specification, tissue patterning and regional-identity specification. A βcatenin-dependent signal specifies the AP (Anteroposterior) axis of planarians, both during regeneration of new tissues and during normal homeostasis. Accordingly, four wnts (posterior wnts) are expressed in a nested manner in central and posterior regions of planarians. We have analyzed the specific role of each posterior wnt and the possible cooperation between them in specifying and patterning planarian central and posterior regions. We show that each posterior wnt exerts a distinct role during re-specification and maintenance of the central and posterior planarian regions, and that the integration of the different wnt signals (βcatenin dependent and independent) underlies the patterning of the AP axis from the central region to the tip of the tail. Based on these findings and data from the literature, we propose a model for patterning the planarian AP axis.

Assessing exotic plant species invasions and associated soil characteristics: A case study in eastern Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA, using the pixel nested plot design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kalkhan, M.A.; Stafford, E.J.; Woodly, P.J.; Stohlgren, T.J.

2007-01-01

Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP), Colorado, USA, contains a diversity of plant species. However, many exotic plant species have become established, potentially impacting the structure and function of native plant communities. Our goal was to quantify patterns of exotic plant species in relation to native plant species, soil characteristics, and other abiotic factors that may indicate or predict their establishment and success. Our research approach for field data collection was based on a field plot design called the pixel nested plot. The pixel nested plot provides a link to multi-phase and multi-scale spatial modeling-mapping techniques that can be used to estimate total species richness and patterns of plant diversity at finer landscape scales. Within the eastern region of RMNP, in an area of approximately 35,000 ha, we established a total of 60 pixel nested plots in 9 vegetation types. We used canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) and multiple linear regressions to quantify relationships between soil characteristics and native and exotic plant species richness and cover. We also used linear correlation, spatial autocorrelation and cross correlation statistics to test for the spatial patterns of variables of interest. CCA showed that exotic species were significantly (P < 0.05) associated with photosynthetically active radiation (r = 0.55), soil nitrogen (r = 0.58) and bare ground (r = -0.66). Pearson's correlation statistic showed significant linear relationships between exotic species, organic carbon, soil nitrogen, and bare ground. While spatial autocorrelations indicated that our 60 pixel nested plots were spatially independent, the cross correlation statistics indicated that exotic plant species were spatially associated with bare ground, in general, exotic plant species were most abundant in areas of high native species richness. This indicates that resource managers should focus on the protection of relatively rare native rich sites with little canopy cover, and fertile soils. Using the pixel nested plot approach for data collection can facilitate the ecological monitoring of these vulnerable areas at the landscape scale in a time- and cost-effective manner. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multi-response calibration of a conceptual hydrological model in the semiarid catchment of Wadi al Arab, Jordan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rödiger, T.; Geyer, S.; Mallast, U.; Merz, R.; Krause, P.; Fischer, C.; Siebert, C.

2014-02-01

A key factor for sustainable management of groundwater systems is the accurate estimation of groundwater recharge. Hydrological models are common tools for such estimations and widely used. As such models need to be calibrated against measured values, the absence of adequate data can be problematic. We present a nested multi-response calibration approach for a semi-distributed hydrological model in the semi-arid catchment of Wadi al Arab in Jordan, with sparsely available runoff data. The basic idea of the calibration approach is to use diverse observations in a nested strategy, in which sub-parts of the model are calibrated to various observation data types in a consecutive manner. First, the available different data sources have to be screened for information content of processes, e.g. if data sources contain information on mean values, spatial or temporal variability etc. for the entire catchment or only sub-catchments. In a second step, the information content has to be mapped to relevant model components, which represent these processes. Then the data source is used to calibrate the respective subset of model parameters, while the remaining model parameters remain unchanged. This mapping is repeated for other available data sources. In that study the gauged spring discharge (GSD) method, flash flood observations and data from the chloride mass balance (CMB) are used to derive plausible parameter ranges for the conceptual hydrological model J2000g. The water table fluctuation (WTF) method is used to validate the model. Results from modelling using a priori parameter values from literature as a benchmark are compared. The estimated recharge rates of the calibrated model deviate less than ±10% from the estimates derived from WTF method. Larger differences are visible in the years with high uncertainties in rainfall input data. The performance of the calibrated model during validation produces better results than applying the model with only a priori parameter values. The model with a priori parameter values from literature tends to overestimate recharge rates with up to 30%, particular in the wet winter of 1991/1992. An overestimation of groundwater recharge and hence available water resources clearly endangers reliable water resource managing in water scarce region. The proposed nested multi-response approach may help to better predict water resources despite data scarcity.

Geographic variation in avian incubation periods and parental influences on embryonic temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, T.E.; Auer, S.K.; Bassar, R.D.; Niklison, Alina M.; Lloyd, P.

2007-01-01

Theory predicts shorter embryonic periods in species with greater embryo mortality risk and smaller body size. Field studies of 80 passerine species on three continents yielded data that largely conflicted with theory; incubation (embryonic) periods were longer rather than shorter in smaller species, and egg (embryo) mortality risk explained some variation within regions, but did not explain larger differences in incubation periods among geographic regions. Incubation behavior of parents seems to explain these discrepancies. Bird embryos are effectively ectothermic and depend on warmth provided by parents sitting on the eggs to attain proper temperatures for development. Parents of smaller species, plus tropical and southern hemisphere species, commonly exhibited lower nest attentiveness (percent of time spent on the nest incubating) than larger and northern hemisphere species. Lower nest attentiveness produced cooler minimum and average embryonic temperatures that were correlated with longer incubation periods independent of nest predation risk or body size. We experimentally tested this correlation by swapping eggs of species with cool incubation temperatures with eggs of species with warm incubation temperatures and similar egg mass. Incubation periods changed (shortened or lengthened) as expected and verified the importance of egg temperature on development rate. Slower development resulting from cooler temperatures may simply be a cost imposed on embryos by parents and may not enhance offspring quality. At the same time, incubation periods of transferred eggs did not match host species and reflect intrinsic differences among species that may result from nest predation and other selection pressures. Thus, geographic variation in embryonic development may reflect more complex interactions than previously recognized. ?? 2007 The Author(s).

Do common eiders nest in kin groups? Microgeographic genetic structure in a philopatric sea duck

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sonsthagen, S.A.; Talbot, S.L.; Lanctot, Richard B.; McCracken, K.G.

2010-01-01

We investigated local genetic associations among female Pacific common eiders (Somateria mollissima v-nigrum) nesting in a stochastic Arctic environment within two groups of barrier islands (Simpson Lagoon and Mikkelsen Bay) in the Beaufort Sea, Alaska. Nonrandom genetic associations were observed among nesting females using regional spatial autocorrelation analyses for distance classes up to 1000 m in Simpson Lagoon. Nearest-neighbour analyses identified clusters of genetically related females with positive lr values observed for 0-13% and 0-7% of the comparisons in Simpson Lagoon and Mikkelsen Bay, respectively, across years. These results indicate that a proportion of females are nesting in close proximity to more genetically related individuals, albeit at low frequency. Such kin groupings may form through active association between relatives or through natal philopatry and breeding site fidelity. Eiders nest in close association with driftwood, which is redistributed annually by seasonal storms. Yet, genetic associations were still observed. Microgeographic structure may thus be more attributable to kin association than natal philopatry and site fidelity. However, habitat availability may also influence the level of structure observed. Regional structure was present only within Simpson Lagoon and this island group includes at least three islands with sufficient driftwood for colonies, whereas only one island at Mikkelsen Bay has these features. A long-term demographic study is needed to understand more fully the mechanisms that lead to fine-scale genetic structure observed in common eiders breeding in the Beaufort Sea. ?? Published 2010. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Collaboration and nested environmental governance: Scale dependency, scale framing, and cross-scale interactions in collaborative conservation.

PubMed

Wyborn, Carina; Bixler, R Patrick

2013-07-15

The problem of fit between social institutions and ecological systems is an enduring challenge in natural resource management and conservation. Developments in the science of conservation biology encourage the management of landscapes at increasingly larger scales. In contrast, sociological approaches to conservation emphasize the importance of ownership, collaboration and stewardship at scales relevant to the individual or local community. Despite the proliferation of initiatives seeking to work with local communities to undertake conservation across large landscapes, there is an inherent tension between these scales of operation. Consequently, questions about the changing nature of effective conservation across scales abound. Through an analysis of three nested cases working in a semiautonomous fashion in the Northern Rocky Mountains in North America, this paper makes an empirical contribution to the literature on nested governance, collaboration and communication across scales. Despite different scales of operation, constituencies and scale frames, we demonstrate a surprising similarity in organizational structure and an implicit dependency between these initiatives. This paper examines the different capacities and capabilities of collaborative conservation from the local to regional to supra regional. We draw on the underexplored concept of 'scale-dependent comparative advantage' (Cash and Moser, 2000), to gain insight into what activities take place at which scale and what those activities contribute to nested governance and collaborative conservation. The comparison of these semiautonomous cases provides fruitful territory to draw lessons for understanding the roles and relationships of organizations operating at different scales in more connected networks of nested governance. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity of nested-PCR for plasmodium detection in pooled whole blood samples and its usefulness to blood donor screening in endemic areas.

PubMed

de Freitas, Daniel Roberto Coradi; Gomes, Luciano Teixeira; Fontes, Cor Jesus F; Tauil, Pedro Luiz; Pang, Lorrin W; Duarte, Elisabeth Carmen

2014-04-01

Transfusion-transmitted malaria is a severe disease with high fatality rate. Most Brazilian blood banks in the Amazon region perform malaria screening using microscopic examination (thick smears). Since low parasite concentrations are expected in asymptomatic blood donors a high sensitivity test should be used for donor screening. This study determined the sensitivity of a nested-PCR for plasmodium detection in pooled samples. We performed a one-stage criterion validation study with 21 positive samples pooled with samples from ten negative volunteer until three different concentrations were reached (0.33; 0.25; 0.20 parasites/μL - p/μL). Nested PCR was performed as described by Snounou et al. (1993). Sensitivities (and confidence intervals) were determined by stratum of final parasite concentration on the pooled samples. All samples with parasitemia values of 0.33 and 0.25 p/μL had 100% sensitivity (95%CI=86.3-100). One negative result was obtained from a sample with 0.20 p/μL sensitivity=95.2% (95%CI=76.2-99.9). Compared to parasitemia detectable under ideal conditions of thick smear, this nested-PCR in pooled sample was able to detect 40 times more parasites per microliter. Nested-PCR in pooled samples should be considered as a high sensitive alternative to thick smear for donor screening in blood banks at endemic regions. Local authorities need to assess cost:benefit advantages of this method compared to alternatives. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors that influence the beta-diversity of spider communities in northwestern Argentinean Grasslands

PubMed Central

Rodriguez-Artigas, Sandra M.; Ballester, Rodrigo

2016-01-01

Beta-diversity, defined as spatial replacement in species composition, is crucial to the understanding of how local communities assemble. These changes can be driven by environmental or geographic factors (such as geographic distance), or a combination of the two. Spiders have been shown to be good indicators of environmental quality. Accordingly, spiders are used in this work as model taxa to establish whether there is a decrease in community similarity that corresponds to geographic distance in the grasslands of the Campos & Malezales ecoregion (Corrientes). Furthermore, the influence of climactic factors and local vegetation heterogeneity (environmental factors) on assemblage composition was evaluated. Finally, this study evaluated whether the differential dispersal capacity of spider families is a factor that influences their community structure at a regional scale. Spiders were collected with a G-Vac from vegetation in six grassland sites in the Campos & Malezales ecoregion that were separated by a minimum of 13 km. With this data, the impact of alpha-diversity and different environmental variables on the beta-diversity of spider communities was analysed. Likewise, the importance of species replacement and nesting on beta-diversity and their contribution to the regional diversity of spider families with different dispersion capacities was evaluated. The regional and site-specific inventories obtained were complete. The similarity between spider communities declined as the geographic distance between sites increased. Environmental variables also influenced community composition; stochastic events and abiotic forces were the principal intervening factors in assembly structure. The differential dispersal capacity of spider groups also influenced community structure at a regional scale. The regional beta-diversity, as well as species replacement, was greater in high and intermediate vagility spiders; while nesting was greater in spiders with low dispersion capacity. Geographic distance, among other factors (climate, and active and passive dispersion capacity), explains assembly structure and the decrease spider community similarity between geographically distant sites. Spiders with the highest dispersal capacity showed greater species replacement. This may be due to the discontinuity (both natural and anthropic) of the grasslands in this ecoregion, which limits the dispersal capacity of these spiders, and their close dependence on microhabitats. The dispersal capacity of the least vagile spiders is limited by geographic distance and biotic factors, such as competition, which could explain the nesting observed between their communities. PMID:27123380

Selection of fire-created snags at two spatial scales by cavity-nesting birds

Treesearch

Victoria A. Saab; Ree Brannon; Jonathan Dudley; Larry Donohoo; Dave Vanderzanden; Vicky Johnson; Henry Lachowski

2002-01-01

We examined the use of snag stands by seven species of cavity-nesting birds from 1994-1998. Selection of snags was studied in logged and unlogged burned forests at two spatial scales: microhabitat (local vegetation characteristics) and landscape (composition and patterning of surrounding vegetation types). We modeled nest occurrence at the landscape scale by using...

A multiscale analysis of nest predation on Least Bell's Vireos (Vireo bellii pusillus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kus, Barbara E.; Peterson, Bonnie L.; Deutschman, Douglas H.

2008-01-01

We examined variables influencing nest predation on the endangered Least Bell's Vireo (Vireo bellii pusillus) at three spatial scales to determine what nest-site, habitat, or landscape characteristics affect the likelihood of nest predation and to determine the spatial distribution of predation risk and the variables influencing it. We used MARK to calculate daily survival rates of Least Bell's Vireo nests and applied an information-theoretic approach to evaluate support for logistic regression models of the effect of habitat variables on predation risk. Analysis of data for 195 nests collected during 1999 and 2000 at the San Luis Rey River and Pilgrim Creek in southern California revealed no effect of fine-scale factors, including nest height, supporting plant species, and three measures of nest concealment, on the likelihood of predation. At the intermediate scale, distances to the riparian-habitat edge and to internal gaps in the canopy were unrelated to nest survival. Surrounding land-use type was a poor predictor of predation risk, with the exception of proximity to golf course–park habitat and wetland. Nests within 400 m of golf course–park were only 20% as likely to avoid predation as nests >400 m from this habitat, and nests near wetland were more than twice as likely to survive as nests distant from wetland. Spatially, predation appeared to be random throughout the site, with localized clustering evident in the vicinity of golf course–park and wetland. Our results suggest that the landscape may be the most appropriate scale at which to manage nest predation in this system.

Evaluation of Caspian tern (Hydroprogne caspia) and snowy plover (Charadrius alexandrinus nivosus) nesting on modified islands at the Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge, California—2016 Annual Report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartman, C. Alex; Ackerman, Joshua T.; Herzog, Mark P.; Strong, Cheryl; Trachtenbarg, David; Shore, Crystal A.

2017-05-08

Executive SummaryIn order to address the 2008/10 and Supplemental 2014 NOAA Fisheries Biological Opinion for operation of the Federal Columbia River Power System, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) developed and have begun implementation of Caspian tern (Hydroprogne caspia) management plans. This implementation includes redistribution of the Caspian terns in the Columbia River estuary and the mid-Columbia River region to reduce predation on salmonids listed under the Endangered Species Act. Key elements of the plans include (1) reducing nesting habitat for Caspian terns in the Columbia River estuary and the mid-Columbia River region, and (2) creating or modifying nesting habitat at alternative sites within the Caspian tern breeding range. USACE and Reclamation developed Caspian tern nesting habitat at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge (DENWR), California, prior to the 2015 nesting season. Furthermore, to reduce or eliminate potential conflicts between nesting Caspian terns and threatened western snowy plovers (Charadrius alexandrinus nivosus), nesting habitat for snowy plovers also was developed. Seven recently constructed islands within two managed ponds (Ponds A16 and SF2) of DENWR were modified to provide habitat attractive to nesting Caspian terns (5 islands) and snowy plovers (2 islands). These 7 islands were a subset of 46 islands recently constructed in Ponds A16 and SF2 to provide waterbird nesting habitat as part of the South Bay Salt Pond (SBSP) Restoration Project.We used social attraction methods (decoys and electronic call systems) to attract Caspian terns and snowy plovers to these seven modified islands, and conducted surveys between March and September of 2015 and 2016 to evaluate nest numbers, nest density, and productivity. Results from the 2015 nesting season, the first year of the study, indicated that island modifications and social attraction measures were successful in establishing Caspian tern breeding colonies at Ponds A16 and SF2 of DENWR. The success of 2015 continued in 2016, the second year of the study. In 2016, Caspian terns nested on two of the five islands modified for Caspian terns (one island in Pond A16 and one island in Pond SF2). Caspian terns initiated at least 317 nests, fledged at least 158 chicks, and had a breeding success rate of 0.50 fledged chicks per breeding pair. This represents a 42 percent increase in nests initiated, a 9 percent decrease in the number of fledged chicks, and a 36 percent decrease in the number of chicks fledged per breeding pair in 2016 compared to 2015. Although overall productivity decreased from 2015, these results indicate that the Caspian tern breeding population on modified islands of the DENWR is increasing relative to 2015, the first year of the effort, and relative to years prior to 2015 when no breeding colonies of Caspian terns existed in Ponds A16 or SF2. These results indicate the effectiveness of social attraction measures in helping to establish tern nesting colonies in San Francisco Bay. Conversely, for the second year in a row, snowy plovers did not attempt to nest on any island in Ponds A16 and SF2. Social attraction measures similar to those used in this study, but targeting other colonial species such as Forster’s terns (Sterna forsteri) and American avocets (Recurvirostra americana), may help to establish waterbird breeding colonies at wetlands enhanced as part of the SBSP Restoration Project.

Simulation of the Pinatubo Impact on the Red Sea Using Coupled Regional Ocean/Atmosphere Modeling System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenchikov, G. L.; Osipov, S.

2016-12-01

This study focuses on the Middle East regional climate response to the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption of 1991. It is motivated by the observed severe winter cooling in the Middle East during the winter of 1991/92. The Red Sea surface temperature dropped by more than 1K and deep water mixing caused coral bleaching for a few years. To better understand the mechanisms of the Middle East climate response and evaluate the effects of radiative cooling and regional meteorological processes on the Red Sea, we employ the Regional Ocean Modeling system (ROMS) fully coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF model parent and nested domains are configured over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and over the Red Sea with 30 and 10 km resolution, respectively. The ROMS model over the Red Sea has 2 km grid spacing. The WRF code was modified to interactively account for the radiative effect of volcanic aerosols. Spectral optical properties of sulfate aerosols are computed using Mie based on the Sato's optical depth. Both atmosphere and ocean models capture the main features of the MENA climate response and correctly reproduce the anomalous winter cooling of 1991/92. We find that the sea surface cooling associated with meteorological effects prevails that caused by the direct radiative forcing of volcanic aerosols. The overturning circulation in the Red Sea strengthens. The salinity distribution and deep water formation are significantly perturbed.

Sharp-Tailed Grouse Nest Survival and Nest Predator Habitat Use in North Dakota's Bakken Oil Field.

PubMed

Burr, Paul C; Robinson, Aaron C; Larsen, Randy T; Newman, Robert A; Ellis-Felege, Susan N

2017-01-01

Recent advancements in extraction technologies have resulted in rapid increases of gas and oil development across the United States and specifically in western North Dakota. This expansion of energy development has unknown influences on local wildlife populations and the ecological interactions within and among species. Our objectives for this study were to evaluate nest success and nest predator dynamics of sharp-tailed grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus) in two study sites that represented areas of high and low energy development intensities in North Dakota. During the summers of 2012 and 2013, we monitored 163 grouse nests using radio telemetry. Of these, 90 nests also were monitored using miniature cameras to accurately determine nest fates and identify nest predators. We simultaneously conducted predator surveys using camera scent stations and occupancy modeling to estimate nest predator occurrence at each site. American badgers (Taxidea taxus) and striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis) were the primary nest predators, accounting for 56.7% of all video recorded nest depredations. Nests in our high intensity gas and oil area were 1.95 times more likely to succeed compared to our minimal intensity area. Camera monitored nests were 2.03 times more likely to succeed than non-camera monitored nests. Occupancy of mammalian nest predators was 6.9 times more likely in our study area of minimal gas and oil intensity compared to the high intensity area. Although only a correlative study, our results suggest energy development may alter the predator community, thereby increasing nest success for sharp-tailed grouse in areas of intense development, while adjacent areas may have increased predator occurrence and reduced nest success. Our study illustrates the potential influences of energy development on the nest predator-prey dynamics of sharp-tailed grouse in western North Dakota and the complexity of evaluating such impacts on wildlife.

Non-Hydrostatic Modelling of Waves and Currents over Subtle Bathymetric Features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomes, E.; Mulligan, R. P.; McNinch, J.

2014-12-01

Localized areas with high rates of shoreline erosion on beaches, referred to as erosional hotspots, can occur near clusters of relict shore-oblique sandbars. Wave transformation and wave-driven currents over these morphological features could provide an understanding of the hydrodynamic-morphologic coupling mechanism that connects them to the occurrence of erosional hotspots. To investigate this, we use the non-hydrostatic SWASH model that phase-resolves the free surface and fluid motions throughout the water column, allowing for high resolution of wave propagation and breaking processes. In this study we apply a coupled system of nested models including SWAN over a large domain of the North Carolina shelf with smaller nested SWASH domains in areas of interest to determine the hydrodynamic processes occurring over shore oblique bars. In this presentation we focus on a high resolution grid (10 vertical layers, 10 m horizontal resolution) applied to the Duck region with model validation from acoustic wave and current data, and observations from the Coastal Lidar And Radar Imaging System (CLARIS). By altering the bathymetry input for each model run based on bathymetric surveys and comparing the predicted and observed wave heights and current profiles, the effects of subtle bathymetric perturbations have on wave refraction, wave breaking, surf zone currents and vorticity are investigated. The ability to predict wave breaking and hydrodynamics with a non-hydrostatic model may improve our understanding of surf zone dynamics in relation to morphologic conditions.