Spatial Sampling of Weather Data for Regional Crop Yield Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Van Bussel, Lenny G. J.; Ewert, Frank; Zhao, Gang; Hoffmann, Holger; Enders, Andreas; Wallach, Daniel; Asseng, Senthold; Baigorria, Guillermo A.; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian;

A guide for using the transient ground-water flow model of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, Nevada and California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blainey, Joan B.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Hill, Mary C.

2006-01-01

This report is a guide for executing numerical simulations with the transient ground-water flow model of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, Nevada and California using the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference ground-water flow model, MODFLOW-2000. Model inputs, including observations of hydraulic head, discharge, and boundary flows, are summarized. Modification of the DVRFS transient ground-water model is discussed for two common uses of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system model: predictive pumping scenarios that extend beyond the end of the model simulation period (1998), and model simulations with only steady-state conditions.

An evaluation of 20th century climate for the Southeastern United States as simulated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models

USGS Publications Warehouse

David E. Rupp,

2016-05-05

The 20th century climate for the Southeastern United States and surrounding areas as simulated by global climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was evaluated. A suite of statistics that characterize various aspects of the regional climate was calculated from both model simulations and observation-based datasets. CMIP5 global climate models were ranked by their ability to reproduce the observed climate. Differences in the performance of the models between regions of the United States (the Southeastern and Northwestern United States) warrant a regional-scale assessment of CMIP5 models.

Using DOUBLE STAR and CLUSTER Synoptic Observations to Test Global MHD Simulations of the Large-scale Topology of the Dayside Merging Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berchem, J.; Marchaudon, A.; Bosqued, J.; Escoubet, C. P.; Dunlop, M.; Owen, C. J.; Reme, H.; Balogh, A.; Carr, C.; Fazakerley, A. N.; Cao, J. B.

2005-12-01

Synoptic measurements from the DOUBLE STAR and CLUSTER spacecraft offer a unique opportunity to evaluate global models in simulating the complex topology and dynamics of the dayside merging region. We compare observations from the DOUBLE STAR TC-1 and CLUSTER spacecraft on May 8, 2004 with the predictions from a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation that uses plasma and magnetic field parameters measured upstream of the bow shock by the WIND spacecraft. Results from the global simulation are consistent with the large-scale features observed by CLUSTER and TC-1. We discuss topological changes and plasma flows at the dayside magnetospheric boundary inferred from the simulation results. The simulation shows that the DOUBLE STAR spacecraft passed through the dawn side merging region as the IMF rotated. In particular, the simulation indicates that at times TC-1 was very close to the merging region. In addition, we found that the bifurcation of the merging region in the simulation results is consistent with predictions by the antiparallel merging model. However, because of the draping of the magnetosheath field lines over the magnetopause, the positions and shape of the merging region differ significantly from those predicted by the model.

The implementation of sea ice model on a regional high-resolution scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasad, Siva; Zakharov, Igor; Bobby, Pradeep; McGuire, Peter

2015-09-01

The availability of high-resolution atmospheric/ocean forecast models, satellite data and access to high-performance computing clusters have provided capability to build high-resolution models for regional ice condition simulation. The paper describes the implementation of the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) on a regional scale at high resolution. The advantage of the model is its ability to include oceanographic parameters (e.g., currents) to provide accurate results. The sea ice simulation was performed over Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea to retrieve important parameters such as ice concentration, thickness, ridging, and drift. Two different forcing models, one with low resolution and another with a high resolution, were used for the estimation of sensitivity of model results. Sea ice behavior over 7 years was simulated to analyze ice formation, melting, and conditions in the region. Validation was based on comparing model results with remote sensing data. The simulated ice concentration correlated well with Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) and Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF) data. Visual comparison of ice thickness trends estimated from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity satellite (SMOS) agreed with the simulation for year 2010-2011.

Constraining ammonia dairy emissions during NASA DISCOVER-AQ California: surface and airborne observation comparisons with CMAQ simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, D. J.; Liu, Z.; Sun, K.; Tao, L.; Nowak, J. B.; Bambha, R.; Michelsen, H. A.; Zondlo, M. A.

2014-12-01

Agricultural ammonia (NH3) emissions are highly uncertain in current bottom-up inventories. Ammonium nitrate is a dominant component of fine aerosols in agricultural regions such as the Central Valley of California, especially during winter. Recent high resolution regional modeling efforts in this region have found significant ammonium nitrate and gas-phase NH3 biases during summer. We compare spatially-resolved surface and boundary layer gas-phase NH3 observations during NASA DISCOVER-AQ California with Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) regional model simulations driven by the EPA NEI 2008 inventory to constrain wintertime NH3 model biases. We evaluate model performance with respect to aerosol partitioning, mixing and deposition to constrain contributions to modeled NH3 concentration biases in the Central Valley Tulare dairy region. Ammonia measurements performed with an open-path mobile platform on a vehicle are gridded to 4 km resolution hourly background concentrations. A peak detection algorithm is applied to remove local feedlot emission peaks. Aircraft NH3, NH4+ and NO3- observations are also compared with simulations extracted along the flight tracks. We find NH3 background concentrations in the dairy region are underestimated by three to five times during winter and NH3 simulations are moderately correlated with observations (r = 0.36). Although model simulations capture NH3 enhancements in the dairy region, these simulations are biased low by 30-60 ppbv NH3. Aerosol NH4+ and NO3- are also biased low in CMAQ by three and four times respectively. Unlike gas-phase NH3, CMAQ simulations do not capture typical NH4+ or NO3- enhancements observed in the dairy region. In contrast, boundary layer height simulations agree well with observations within 13%. We also address observational constraints on simulated NH3 deposition fluxes. These comparisons suggest that NEI 2008 wintertime dairy emissions are underestimated by a factor of three to five. We test sensitivity to emissions by increasing the NEI 2008 NH3 emissions uniformly across the dairy region and evaluate the impact on modeled concentrations. These results are applicable to improving predictions of ammoniated aerosol loading and highlight the value of mobile platform spatial NH3 measurements to constrain emission inventories.

Improving sea level simulation in Mediterranean regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adloff, Fanny; Jordà, Gabriel; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Arsouze, Thomas; Meyssignac, Benoit; Li, Laurent; Planton, Serge

2017-08-01

For now, the question about future sea level change in the Mediterranean remains a challenge. Previous climate modelling attempts to estimate future sea level change in the Mediterranean did not meet a consensus. The low resolution of CMIP-type models prevents an accurate representation of important small scales processes acting over the Mediterranean region. For this reason among others, the use of high resolution regional ocean modelling has been recommended in literature to address the question of ongoing and future Mediterranean sea level change in response to climate change or greenhouse gases emissions. Also, it has been shown that east Atlantic sea level variability is the dominant driver of the Mediterranean variability at interannual and interdecadal scales. However, up to now, long-term regional simulations of the Mediterranean Sea do not integrate the full sea level information from the Atlantic, which is a substantial shortcoming when analysing Mediterranean sea level response. In the present study we analyse different approaches followed by state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate Mediterranean sea level variability. Additionally we present a new simulation which incorporates improved information of Atlantic sea level forcing at the lateral boundary. We evaluate the skills of the different simulations in the frame of long-term hindcast simulations spanning from 1980 to 2012 analysing sea level variability from seasonal to multidecadal scales. Results from the new simulation show a substantial improvement in the modelled Mediterranean sea level signal. This confirms that Mediterranean mean sea level is strongly influenced by the Atlantic conditions, and thus suggests that the quality of the information in the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) is crucial for the good modelling of Mediterranean sea level. We also found that the regional differences inside the basin, that are induced by circulation changes, are model-dependent and thus not affected by the LBCs. Finally, we argue that a correct configuration of LBCs in the Atlantic should be used for future Mediterranean simulations, which cover hindcast period, but also for scenarios.

Applying GIPL2.0 Model to assess the permafrost dynamics on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, T.

2017-12-01

The modeling of active layer and permafrost distribution is of great importance to understand the permafrost dynamics of cold regions, especially in those regions where are difficult to approach such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). In this study we have applied the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab model (GIPL2.0) to estimate the active layer thickness and assess the permafrost thermal regime on the QTP. The GIPL 2.0 have been widely applied in the Arctic regions of Alaska, however less on the QTP. The model has been calibrated according to the four active layer in-situ measurement sites which have different underlying surface and soil characteristics. We extended the original GIPL2 model depth to the depth of 18 m. After the calibration of the GIPL2.0 at those four sites, the first-hand single point model is expanded to a regional model. The key permafrost parameters were simulated, including active layer thickness (ALT), mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) at multiple soil layers, and the permafrost classification was also carried out in order to study the permafrost the thermal stability across the QTP. To validate the performance of expanded regional-GIPL2 model, we compare simulated ALT and MAGT at the depth of zero annual amplitude (DZAA) with observed data. It is demonstrated that the modifications regional-GIPL2 model are able to improve the accuracy of permafrost thermal regime simulations greatly on the QTP. The simulated ALT are generally underestimate the observed ones with the MBE value of -0.14 m and the RMSE value of 0.22 m. For the MAGT at the DZAA of all 51 sites, the simulation errors range from - 0.9 ° to 0.9 ° with the RMSE value of 0.41 °. For the whole permafrost area of the QTP, the simulated ALT ranges from 0 to 8 m, with an average of 2.30 m. The simulated results indicate that most of regions were underlain by the sub-stable permafrost and less regions were underlain by the extremely stable permafrost.

Sensitivity of WRF Regional Climate Simulations to Choice of Land Use Dataset

EPA Science Inventory

The goal of this study is to assess the sensitivity of regional climate simulations run with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to the choice of datasets representing land use and land cover (LULC). Within a regional climate modeling application, an accurate repres...

Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGuire, A. David; Koven, Charles; Lawrence, David M.; Clein, Joy S.; Xia, Jiangyang; Beer, Christian; Burke, Eleanor J.; Chen, Guangsheng; Chen, Xiaodong; Delire, Christine; Jafarov, Elchin; MacDougall, Andrew H.; Marchenko, Sergey S.; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Peng, Shushi; Rinke, Annette; Saito, Kazuyuki; Zhang, Wenxin; Alkama, Ramdane; Bohn, Theodore J.; Ciais, Philippe; Decharme, Bertrand; Ekici, Altug; Gouttevin, Isabelle; Hajima, Tomohiro; Hayes, Daniel J.; Ji, Duoying; Krinner, Gerhard; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Luo, Yiqi; Miller, Paul A.; Moore, John C.; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Schädel, Christina; Schaefer, Kevin; Schuur, Edward A.G.; Smith, Benjamin; Sueyoshi, Tetsuo; Zhuang, Qianlai

2016-01-01

A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3 m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8 × 103 km2 yr−1). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954 Tg C yr−1between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982–2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models.

Influence of boundary conditions to multi-model simulations of ozone and PM2.5 levels over Europe and North America in frame of AQMEII3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Im, Ulas; Hansen, Kaj M.; Geels, Camilla; Christensen, Jesper H.; Brandt, Jørgen; Hogrefe, Christian; Galmarini, Stefano

2016-04-01

AQMEII (Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative) promotes research on regional air quality model evaluation across the European and North American atmospheric modelling communities, providing the ideal platform for advancing the evaluation of air quality models at the regional scale. In frame of the AQMEII3 model evaluation exercise, thirteen regional chemistry and transport models have simulated the air pollutant levels over Europe and/or North America for the year 2010, along with various sensitivity simulations of reductions in anthropogenic emissions and boundary conditions. All participating groups have performed sensitivity simulation with 20% reductions in global (GLO) anthropogenic emissions. In addition, various groups simulated sensitivity scenarios of 20% reductions in anthropogenic emissions in different HTAP-defined regions such as North America (NAM), Europe (EUR) and East Asia (EAS). The boundary conditions for the base case and the perturbation scenarios were derived from the MOZART-IFS global chemical model. The present study will evaluate the impact of these emission perturbations on regional surface ozone and PM2.5 levels as well as over individual surface measurement stations over both continents and vertical profiles over the radiosonde stations from the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC) and the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) stations for ozone and for PM2.5, respectively.

A Systematic Evaluation of Noah-MP in Simulating Land-Atmosphere Energy, Water, and Carbon Exchanges Over the Continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Ning; Niu, Guo-Yue; Xia, Youlong; Cai, Xitian; Zhang, Yinsheng; Ma, Yaoming; Fang, Yuanhao

2017-11-01

Accurate simulation of energy, water, and carbon fluxes exchanging between the land surface and the atmosphere is beneficial for improving terrestrial ecohydrological and climate predictions. We systematically assessed the Noah land surface model (LSM) with mutiparameterization options (Noah-MP) in simulating these fluxes and associated variations in terrestrial water storage (TWS) and snow cover fraction (SCF) against various reference products over 18 United States Geological Survey two-digital hydrological unit code regions of the continental United States (CONUS). In general, Noah-MP captures better the observed seasonal and interregional variability of net radiation, SCF, and runoff than other variables. With a dynamic vegetation model, it overestimates gross primary productivity by 40% and evapotranspiration (ET) by 22% over the whole CONUS domain; however, with a prescribed climatology of leaf area index, it greatly improves ET simulation with relative bias dropping to 4%. It accurately simulates regional TWS dynamics in most regions except those with large lakes or severely affected by irrigation and/or impoundments. Incorporating the lake water storage variations into the modeled TWS variations largely reduces the TWS simulation bias more obviously over the Great Lakes with model efficiency increasing from 0.18 to 0.76. Noah-MP simulates runoff well in most regions except an obvious overestimation (underestimation) in the Rio Grande and Lower Colorado (New England). Compared with North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) LSMs, Noah-MP shows a better ability to simulate runoff and a comparable skill in simulating Rn but a worse skill in simulating ET over most regions. This study suggests that future model developments should focus on improving the representations of vegetation dynamics, lake water storage dynamics, and human activities including irrigation and impoundments.

Short-Range Prediction of Monsoon Precipitation by NCMRWF Regional Unified Model with Explicit Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mamgain, Ashu; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mitra, A. K.; Webster, S.

2018-03-01

There are increasing efforts towards the prediction of high-impact weather systems and understanding of related dynamical and physical processes. High-resolution numerical model simulations can be used directly to model the impact at fine-scale details. Improvement in forecast accuracy can help in disaster management planning and execution. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has implemented high-resolution regional unified modeling system with explicit convection embedded within coarser resolution global model with parameterized convection. The models configurations are based on UK Met Office unified seamless modeling system. Recent land use/land cover data (2012-2013) obtained from Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) are also used in model simulations. Results based on short-range forecast of both the global and regional models over India for a month indicate that convection-permitting simulations by the high-resolution regional model is able to reduce the dry bias over southern parts of West Coast and monsoon trough zone with more intense rainfall mainly towards northern parts of monsoon trough zone. Regional model with explicit convection has significantly improved the phase of the diurnal cycle of rainfall as compared to the global model. Results from two monsoon depression cases during study period show substantial improvement in details of rainfall pattern. Many categories in rainfall defined for operational forecast purposes by Indian forecasters are also well represented in case of convection-permitting high-resolution simulations. For the statistics of number of days within a range of rain categories between `No-Rain' and `Heavy Rain', the regional model is outperforming the global model in all the ranges. In the very heavy and extremely heavy categories, the regional simulations show overestimation of rainfall days. Global model with parameterized convection have tendency to overestimate the light rainfall days and underestimate the heavy rain days compared to the observation data.

The influence of spectral nudging on typhoon formation in regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feser, Frauke; Barcikowska, Monika

2012-03-01

Regional climate models can successfully simulate tropical cyclones and typhoons. This has been shown and was evaluated for hindcast studies of the past few decades. But often global and regional weather phenomena are not simulated at the observed location, or occur too often or seldom even though the regional model is driven by global reanalysis data which constitute a near-realistic state of the global atmosphere. Therefore, several techniques have been developed in order to make the regional model follow the global state more closely. One is spectral nudging, which is applied for horizontal wind components with increasing strength for higher model levels in this study. The aim of this study is to show the influence that this method has on the formation of tropical cyclones (TC) in regional climate models. Two ensemble simulations (each with five simulations) were computed for Southeast Asia and the Northwestern Pacific for the typhoon season 2004, one with spectral nudging and one without. First of all, spectral nudging reduced the overall TC number by about a factor of 2. But the number of tracks which are similar to observed best track data (BTD) was greatly increased. Also, spatial track density patterns were found to be more similar when using spectral nudging. The tracks merge after a short time for the spectral nudging simulations and then follow the BTD closely; for the no nudge cases the similarity is greatly reduced. A comparison of seasonal precipitation, geopotential height, and temperature fields at several height levels with observations and reanalysis data showed overall a smaller ensemble spread, higher pattern correlations and reduced root mean square errors and biases for the spectral nudged simulations. Vertical temperature profiles for selected TCs indicate that spectral nudging is not inhibiting TC development at higher levels. Both the Madden-Julian Oscillation and monsoonal precipitation are reproduced realistically by the regional model, with results slightly closer to reanalysis data for the spectral nudged simulations. On the basis of this regional climate model hindcast study of a single typhoon season, spectral nudging seems to be favourable since it has mostly positive effects on typhoon formation, location and general circulation patterns in the generation areas of TCs.

Realism of the Indian Ocean Dipole in CMIP5 models, and the Implication for Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, E.; Cai, W.; Cowan, T.

2012-12-01

An assessment of how well climate models simulate the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is undertaken using coupled models that have partaken in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Compared to CMIP3 models, no substantial improvement is evident in the simulation of the IOD pattern and/or amplitude during its peak season in austral spring (September-October-November, or SON). The majority of CMIP5 models generate a larger variance of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Sumatra-Java upwelling region and an IOD amplitude that is far greater than what is observed. Although the relationship between precipitation and the tropical Indian Ocean SST is well simulated, future projections of SON rainfall changes over IOD-influenced regions are intrinsically linked to the IOD-rainfall teleconnection and IOD amplitude in the model present-day climate. The diversity of the simulated IOD amplitudes in CMIP5 (and CMIP3) models which tend to be overly large, results in a wide range of future modelled SON rainfall trends over IOD-influenced regions. Our results highlight the importance of realistically simulating the present-day IOD properties and the caveat that needs to be exercised in interpreting climate projections in the IOD-affected regions.

Development of a Novel Rabies Simulation Model for Application in a Non-endemic Environment

PubMed Central

Dürr, Salome; Ward, Michael P.

2015-01-01

Domestic dog rabies is an endemic disease in large parts of the developing world and also epidemic in previously free regions. For example, it continues to spread in eastern Indonesia and currently threatens adjacent rabies-free regions with high densities of free-roaming dogs, including remote northern Australia. Mathematical and simulation disease models are useful tools to provide insights on the most effective control strategies and to inform policy decisions. Existing rabies models typically focus on long-term control programs in endemic countries. However, simulation models describing the dog rabies incursion scenario in regions where rabies is still exotic are lacking. We here describe such a stochastic, spatially explicit rabies simulation model that is based on individual dog information collected in two remote regions in northern Australia. Illustrative simulations produced plausible results with epidemic characteristics expected for rabies outbreaks in disease free regions (mean R0 1.7, epidemic peak 97 days post-incursion, vaccination as the most effective response strategy). Systematic sensitivity analysis identified that model outcomes were most sensitive to seven of the 30 model parameters tested. This model is suitable for exploring rabies spread and control before an incursion in populations of largely free-roaming dogs that live close together with their owners. It can be used for ad-hoc contingency or response planning prior to and shortly after incursion of dog rabies in previously free regions. One challenge that remains is model parameterisation, particularly how dogs’ roaming and contacts and biting behaviours change following a rabies incursion in a previously rabies free population. PMID:26114762

An assessment of geographical distribution of different plant functional types over North America simulated using the CLASS-CTEM modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, Rudra K.; Arora, Vivek K.; Melton, Joe R.; Sushama, Laxmi

2017-10-01

The performance of the competition module of the CLASS-CTEM (Canadian Land Surface Scheme and Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model) modelling framework is assessed at 1° spatial resolution over North America by comparing the simulated geographical distribution of its plant functional types (PFTs) with two observation-based estimates. The model successfully reproduces the broad geographical distribution of trees, grasses and bare ground although limitations remain. In particular, compared to the two observation-based estimates, the simulated fractional vegetation coverage is lower in the arid southwest North American region and higher in the Arctic region. The lower-than-observed simulated vegetation coverage in the southwest region is attributed to lack of representation of shrubs in the model and plausible errors in the observation-based data sets. The observation-based data indicate vegetation fractional coverage of more than 60 % in this arid region, despite only 200-300 mm of precipitation that the region receives annually, and observation-based leaf area index (LAI) values in the region are lower than one. The higher-than-observed vegetation fractional coverage in the Arctic is likely due to the lack of representation of moss and lichen PFTs and also likely because of inadequate representation of permafrost in the model as a result of which the C3 grass PFT performs overly well in the region. The model generally reproduces the broad spatial distribution and the total area covered by the two primary tree PFTs (needleleaf evergreen trees, NDL-EVG; and broadleaf cold deciduous trees, BDL-DCD-CLD) reasonably well. The simulated fractional coverage of tree PFTs increases after the 1960s in response to the CO2 fertilization effect and climate warming. Differences between observed and simulated PFT coverages highlight model limitations and suggest that the inclusion of shrubs, and moss and lichen PFTs, and an adequate representation of permafrost will help improve model performance.

An update of the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system transient model, Nevada and California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belcher, Wayne R.; Sweetkind, Donald S.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Pavelko, Michael T.; Hill, Mary C.

2017-01-19

Since the original publication of the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system (DVRFS) numerical model in 2004, more information on the regional groundwater flow system in the form of new data and interpretations has been compiled. Cooperators such as the Bureau of Land Management, National Park Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Department of Energy, and Nye County, Nevada, recognized a need to update the existing regional numerical model to maintain its viability as a groundwater management tool for regional stakeholders. The existing DVRFS numerical flow model was converted to MODFLOW-2005, updated with the latest available data, and recalibrated. Five main data sets were revised: (1) recharge from precipitation varying in time and space, (2) pumping data, (3) water-level observations, (4) an updated regional potentiometric map, and (5) a revision to the digital hydrogeologic framework model.The resulting DVRFS version 2.0 (v. 2.0) numerical flow model simulates groundwater flow conditions for the Death Valley region from 1913 to 2003 to correspond to the time frame for the most recently published (2008) water-use data. The DVRFS v 2.0 model was calibrated by using the Tikhonov regularization functionality in the parameter estimation and predictive uncertainty software PEST. In order to assess the accuracy of the numerical flow model in simulating regional flow, the fit of simulated to target values (consisting of hydraulic heads and flows, including evapotranspiration and spring discharge, flow across the model boundary, and interbasin flow; the regional water budget; values of parameter estimates; and sensitivities) was evaluated. This evaluation showed that DVRFS v. 2.0 simulates conditions similar to DVRFS v. 1.0. Comparisons of the target values with simulated values also indicate that they match reasonably well and in some cases (boundary flows and discharge) significantly better than in DVRFS v. 1.0.

Regional model simulation of summer rainfall over the Philippines: Effect of choice of driving fields and ocean flux schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francisco, R. V.; Argete, J.; Giorgi, F.; Pal, J.; Bi, X.; Gutowski, W. J.

2006-09-01

The latest version of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) regional model RegCM is used to investigate summer monsoon precipitation over the Philippine archipelago and surrounding ocean waters, a region where regional climate models have not been applied before. The sensitivity of simulated precipitation to driving lateral boundary conditions (NCEP and ERA40 reanalyses) and ocean surface flux scheme (BATS and Zeng) is assessed for 5 monsoon seasons. The ability of the RegCM to simulate the spatial patterns and magnitude of monsoon precipitation is demonstrated, both in response to the prominent large scale circulations over the region and to the local forcing by the physiographical features of the Philippine islands. This provides encouraging indications concerning the development of a regional climate modeling system for the Philippine region. On the other hand, the model shows a substantial sensitivity to the analysis fields used for lateral boundary conditions as well as the ocean surface flux schemes. The use of ERA40 lateral boundary fields consistently yields greater precipitation amounts compared to the use of NCEP fields. Similarly, the BATS scheme consistently produces more precipitation compared to the Zeng scheme. As a result, different combinations of lateral boundary fields and surface ocean flux schemes provide a good simulation of precipitation amounts and spatial structure over the region. The response of simulated precipitation to using different forcing analysis fields is of the same order of magnitude as the response to using different surface flux parameterizations in the model. As a result it is difficult to unambiguously establish which of the model configurations is best performing.

a Model to Simulate the Radiative Transfer of Fluorescence in a Leaf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, F.; Ni, Q.

2018-04-01

Light is reflected, transmitted and absorbed by green leaves. Chlorophyll fluorescence (ChlF) is the signal emitted by chlorophyll molecules in the leaf after the absorption of light. ChlF can be used as a direct probe of the functional status of photosynthetic machinery because of its close relationship with photosynthesis. The scattering, absorbing, and emitting properties of leaves are spectrally dependent, which can be simulated by modeling leaf-level fluorescence. In this paper, we proposed a Monte-Carlo (MC) model to simulate the radiative transfer of photons in the leaf. Results show that typical leaf fluorescence spectra can be properly simulated, with two peaks centered at around 685 nm in the red and 740 nm in the far-red regions. By analysing the sensitivity of the input parameters, we found the MC model can well simulate their influence on the emitted fluorescence. Meanwhile we compared results simulated by MC model with those by the Fluspect model. Generally they agree well in the far-red region but deviate in the red region.

Suitability of temperature sum models to simulate the flowering period of birches on regional scale as basis for realistic predictions of the allergenic potential of atmospheric pollen loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biernath, Christian; Hauck, Julia; Klein, Christian; Thieme, Christoph; Heinlein, Florian; Priesack, Eckart

2014-05-01

Persons susceptible to allergenic pollen grains need to apply suppressive pharmacy before the occurrence of the first allergy symptoms. Patient targeted medication could be improved if forecasts of the allergenic potential of pollen (biochemical composition of the pollen grain) and the onset, duration, and end of the pollen season are precise on regional scale. In plant tissue the biochemical composition may change within hours due to the resource availability for plant growth and plant internal nutrient re-mobilization. As these processes highly depend on both, the environmental conditions and the development stage of a plant, precise simulations of the onset and duration of the flowering period are crucial to determine the allergenic potential of tissues and pollen. Here, dynamic plant models that consider the dependence of the chemical composition of tissue on the development stage of the plant embedded in process-based ecosystem models seem promising tools; however, today dynamic plant growth is widely ignored in simulations of atmospheric pollen loads. In this study we raise the question whether frequently applied temperature sum models (TSM) could precisely simulate the plant development stages in case of birches on regional scale. These TSM integrate average temperatures above a base temperature below which no further plant development is assumed. In this study, we therefore tested the ability of TSM to simulate the flowering period of birches on more than 100 sites in Bavaria, Germany over a period of three years (2010-2012). Our simulations indicate that the often applied base temperatures between 2.3°C and 3.5°C for the integration of daily or hourly average temperatures, respectively, in Europe are too high to adequately simulate the onset of birch flowering in Bavaria where a base temperature of 1°C seems more convenient. A more regional calibration of the models to sub-regions in Bavaria with comparable climatic conditions could further improve the simulation results if compared to simulations using a model that was adjusted to only one representative location in Bavaria. Our simulation results suggest that birch phenology needs to be modelled on a more regional scale to derive precise predictions of the flowering period. Some weak simulation results are suspected to be due to the high genetic diversity of birches and their high adaptive potential to a wide range of environmental conditions which indeed is a characteristic for many pioneer species. The high adaptive potential could be an explanation why authors who calibrate their models to other climatic regions observe better simulation results using higher base temperatures. However, our simulations indicate that the simulation results may be biased if the base temperatures are assumed constant for one species and transferred to larger or smaller scales, to other regions with different climatic conditions, or when applied to extrapolate birch pollen seasons to future climate conditions.

Regional Spectral Model simulations of the summertime regional climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas

Treesearch

Ching-Teng Lee; Ming-Chin Wu; Shyh-Chin Chen

2005-01-01

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) regional spectral model (RSM) version 97 was used to investigate the regional summertime climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas for June-July-August of 1990 through 2000. The simulated sea-level-pressure and wind fields of RSM1 with 50-km grid space are similar to the reanalysis, but the strength of the...

Tidal simulation using regional ocean modeling systems (ROMS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Xiaochun; Chao, Yi; Li, Zhijin; Dong, Changming; Farrara, John; McWilliams, James C.; Shum, C. K.; Wang, Yu; Matsumoto, Koji; Rosenfeld, Leslie K.;

Extending the Operational Envelope of a Turbofan Engine Simulation into the Sub-Idle Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chapman, Jeffryes W.; Hamley, Andrew J.; Guo, Ten-Huei; Litt, Jonathan S.

2016-01-01

In many non-linear gas turbine simulations, operation in the sub-idle region can lead to model instability. This paper lays out a method for extending the operational envelope of a map based gas turbine simulation to include the sub-idle region. This method develops a multi-simulation solution where the baseline component maps are extrapolated below the idle level and an alternate model is developed to serve as a safety net when the baseline model becomes unstable or unreliable. Sub-idle model development takes place in two distinct operational areas, windmilling/shutdown and purge/cranking/ startup. These models are based on derived steady state operating points with transient values extrapolated between initial (known) and final (assumed) states. Model transitioning logic is developed to predict baseline model sub-idle instability, and transition smoothly and stably to the backup sub-idle model. Results from the simulation show a realistic approximation of sub-idle behavior as compared to generic sub-idle engine performance that allows the engine to operate continuously and stably from shutdown to full power.

Extending the Operational Envelope of a Turbofan Engine Simulation into the Sub-Idle Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chapman, Jeffryes Walter; Hamley, Andrew J.; Guo, Ten-Huei; Litt, Jonathan S.

2016-01-01

In many non-linear gas turbine simulations, operation in the sub-idle region can lead to model instability. This paper lays out a method for extending the operational envelope of a map based gas turbine simulation to include the sub-idle region. This method develops a multi-simulation solution where the baseline component maps are extrapolated below the idle level and an alternate model is developed to serve as a safety net when the baseline model becomes unstable or unreliable. Sub-idle model development takes place in two distinct operational areas, windmilling/shutdown and purge/cranking/startup. These models are based on derived steady state operating points with transient values extrapolated between initial (known) and final (assumed) states. Model transitioning logic is developed to predict baseline model sub-idle instability, and transition smoothly and stably to the backup sub-idle model. Results from the simulation show a realistic approximation of sub-idle behavior as compared to generic sub-idle engine performance that allows the engine to operate continuously and stably from shutdown to full power.

Evaluation of CMIP5 continental precipitation simulations relative to satellite-based gauge-adjusted observations

DOE PAGES

Mehran, Ali; AghaKouchak, Amir; Phillips, Thomas J.

2014-02-25

Numerous studies have emphasized that climate simulations are subject to various biases and uncertainties. The objective of this study is to cross-validate 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations of precipitation against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, quantifying model pattern discrepancies and biases for both entire data distributions and their upper tails. The results of the Volumetric Hit Index (VHI) analysis of the total monthly precipitation amounts show that most CMIP5 simulations are in good agreement with GPCP patterns in many areas, but that their replication of observed precipitation over arid regions and certain sub-continentalmore » regions (e.g., northern Eurasia, eastern Russia, central Australia) is problematical. Overall, the VHI of the multi-model ensemble mean and median also are superior to that of the individual CMIP5 models. However, at high quantiles of reference data (e.g., the 75th and 90th percentiles), all climate models display low skill in simulating precipitation, except over North America, the Amazon, and central Africa. Analyses of total bias (B) in CMIP5 simulations reveal that most models overestimate precipitation over regions of complex topography (e.g. western North and South America and southern Africa and Asia), while underestimating it over arid regions. Also, while most climate model simulations show low biases over Europe, inter-model variations in bias over Australia and Amazonia are considerable. The Quantile Bias (QB) analyses indicate that CMIP5 simulations are even more biased at high quantiles of precipitation. Lastly, we found that a simple mean-field bias removal improves the overall B and VHI values, but does not make a significant improvement in these model performance metrics at high quantiles of precipitation.« less

Meta-modeling soil organic carbon sequestration potential and its application at regional scale.

PubMed

Luo, Zhongkui; Wang, Enli; Bryan, Brett A; King, Darran; Zhao, Gang; Pan, Xubin; Bende-Michl, Ulrike

2013-03-01

Upscaling the results from process-based soil-plant models to assess regional soil organic carbon (SOC) change and sequestration potential is a great challenge due to the lack of detailed spatial information, particularly soil properties. Meta-modeling can be used to simplify and summarize process-based models and significantly reduce the demand for input data and thus could be easily applied on regional scales. We used the pre-validated Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to simulate the impact of climate, soil, and management on SOC at 613 reference sites across Australia's cereal-growing regions under a continuous wheat system. We then developed a simple meta-model to link the APSIM-modeled SOC change to primary drivers, i.e., the amount of recalcitrant SOC, plant available water capacity of soil, soil pH, and solar radiation, temperature, and rainfall in the growing season. Based on high-resolution soil texture data and 8165 climate data points across the study area, we used the meta-model to assess SOC sequestration potential and the uncertainty associated with the variability of soil characteristics. The meta-model explained 74% of the variation of final SOC content as simulated by APSIM. Applying the meta-model to Australia's cereal-growing regions reveals regional patterns in SOC, with higher SOC stock in cool, wet regions. Overall, the potential SOC stock ranged from 21.14 to 152.71 Mg/ha with a mean of 52.18 Mg/ha. Variation of soil properties induced uncertainty ranging from 12% to 117% with higher uncertainty in warm, wet regions. In general, soils in Australia's cereal-growing regions under continuous wheat production were simulated as a sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide with a mean sequestration potential of 8.17 Mg/ha.

Sensitivity experiments of a regional climate model to the different convective schemes over Central Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armand J, K. M.

2017-12-01

In this study, version 4 of the regional climate model (RegCM4) is used to perform 6 years simulation including one year for spin-up (from January 2001 to December 2006) over Central Africa using four convective schemes: The Emmanuel scheme (MIT), the Grell scheme with Arakawa-Schulbert closure assumption (GAS), the Grell scheme with Fritsch-Chappell closure assumption (GFC) and the Anthes-Kuo scheme (Kuo). We have investigated the ability of the model to simulate precipitation, surface temperature, wind and aerosols optical depth. Emphasis in the model results were made in December-January-February (DJF) and July-August-September (JAS) periods. Two subregions have been identified for more specific analysis namely: zone 1 which corresponds to the sahel region mainly classified as desert and steppe and zone 2 which is a region spanning the tropical rain forest and is characterised by a bimodal rain regime. We found that regardless of periods or simulated parameters, MIT scheme generally has a tendency to overestimate. The GAS scheme is more suitable in simulating the aforementioned parameters, as well as the diurnal cycle of precipitations everywhere over the study domain irrespective of the season. In JAS, model results are similar in the representation of regional wind circulation. Apart from the MIT scheme, all the convective schemes give the same trends in aerosols optical depth simulations. Additional experiment reveals that the use of BATS instead of Zeng scheme to calculate ocean flux appears to improve the quality of the model simulations.

Regional model simulations of New Zealand climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renwick, James A.; Katzfey, Jack J.; Nguyen, Kim C.; McGregor, John L.

1998-03-01

Simulation of New Zealand climate is examined through the use of a regional climate model nested within the output of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation nine-level general circulation model (GCM). R21 resolution GCM output is used to drive a regional model run at 125 km grid spacing over the Australasian region. The 125 km run is used in turn to drive a simulation at 50 km resolution over New Zealand. Simulations with a full seasonal cycle are performed for 10 model years. The focus is on the quality of the simulation of present-day climate, but results of a doubled-CO2 run are discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of mean simulated precipitation and surface temperatures improve markedly as horizontal resolution is increased, through the better resolution of the country's orography. However, increased horizontal resolution leads to a positive bias in precipitation. At 50 km resolution, simulated frequency distributions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are statistically similar to those of observations at many stations, while frequency distributions of daily precipitation appear to be statistically different to those of observations at most stations. Modeled daily precipitation variability at 125 km resolution is considerably less than observed, but is comparable to, or exceeds, observed variability at 50 km resolution. The sensitivity of the simulated climate to changes in the specification of the land surface is discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of the frequency of extreme temperatures and precipitation are generally well modeled. Under a doubling of CO2, the frequency of precipitation extremes changes only slightly at most locations, while air frosts become virtually unknown except at high-elevation sites.

Crop Yield Simulations Using Multiple Regional Climate Models in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stack, D.; Kafatos, M.; Kim, S.; Kim, J.; Walko, R. L.

2013-12-01

Agricultural productivity (described by crop yield) is strongly dependent on climate conditions determined by meteorological parameters (e.g., temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation). California is the largest producer of agricultural products in the United States, but crops in associated arid and semi-arid regions live near their physiological limits (e.g., in hot summer conditions with little precipitation). Thus, accurate climate data are essential in assessing the impact of climate variability on agricultural productivity in the Southwestern United States and other arid regions. To address this issue, we produced simulated climate datasets and used them as input for the crop production model. For climate data, we employed two different regional climate models (WRF and OLAM) using a fine-resolution (8km) grid. Performances of the two different models are evaluated in a fine-resolution regional climate hindcast experiment for 10 years from 2001 to 2010 by comparing them to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Based on this comparison, multi-model ensembles with variable weighting are used to alleviate model bias and improve the accuracy of crop model productivity over large geographic regions (county and state). Finally, by using a specific crop-yield simulation model (APSIM) in conjunction with meteorological forcings from the multi-regional climate model ensemble, we demonstrate the degree to which maize yields are sensitive to the regional climate in the Southwestern United States.

Agriculture Impacts of Regional Nuclear Conflict

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Lili; Robock, Alan; Mills, Michael; Toon, Owen Brian

2013-04-01

One of the major consequences of nuclear war would be climate change due to massive smoke injection into the atmosphere. Smoke from burning cities can be lofted into the stratosphere where it will have an e-folding lifetime more than 5 years. The climate changes include significant cooling, reduction of solar radiation, and reduction of precipitation. Each of these changes can affect agricultural productivity. To investigate the response from a regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan, we used the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer agricultural simulation model. We first evaluated the model by forcing it with daily weather data and management practices in China and the USA for rice, maize, wheat, and soybeans. Then we perturbed observed weather data using monthly climate anomalies for a 10-year period due to a simulated 5 Tg soot injection that could result from a regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan, using a total of 100 15 kt atomic bombs, much less than 1% of the current global nuclear arsenal. We computed anomalies using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE and NCAR's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). We perturbed each year of the observations with anomalies from each year of the 10-year nuclear war simulations. We found that different regions respond differently to a regional nuclear war; southern regions show slight increases of crop yields while in northern regions crop yields drop significantly. Sensitivity tests show that temperature changes due to nuclear war are more important than precipitation and solar radiation changes in affecting crop yields in the regions we studied. In total, crop production in China and the USA would decrease 15-50% averaged over the 10 years using both models' output. Simulations forced by ModelE output show smaller impacts than simulations forced by WACCM output at the end of the 10 year period because of the different temperature responses in the two models.

Computer simulation of earthquakes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, S. C.

1976-01-01

Two computer simulation models of earthquakes were studied for the dependence of the pattern of events on the model assumptions and input parameters. Both models represent the seismically active region by mechanical blocks which are connected to one another and to a driving plate. The blocks slide on a friction surface. In the first model elastic forces were employed and time independent friction to simulate main shock events. The size, length, and time and place of event occurrence were influenced strongly by the magnitude and degree of homogeniety in the elastic and friction parameters of the fault region. Periodically reoccurring similar events were frequently observed in simulations with near homogeneous parameters along the fault, whereas, seismic gaps were a common feature of simulations employing large variations in the fault parameters. The second model incorporated viscoelastic forces and time-dependent friction to account for aftershock sequences. The periods between aftershock events increased with time and the aftershock region was confined to that which moved in the main event.

Simulating Black Carbon and Dust and their Radiative Forcing in Seasonal Snow: A Case Study over North China with Field Campaign Measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Chun; Hu, Zhiyuan; Qian, Yun

2014-10-30

A state-of-the-art regional model, WRF-Chem, is coupled with the SNICAR model that includes the sophisticated representation of snow metamorphism processes available for climate study. The coupled model is used to simulate the black carbon (BC) and dust concentrations and their radiative forcing in seasonal snow over North China in January-February of 2010, with extensive field measurements used to evaluate the model performance. In general, the model simulated spatial variability of BC and dust mass concentrations in the top snow layer (hereafter BCS and DSTS, respectively) are quantitatively or qualitatively consistent with observations. The model generally moderately underestimates BCS in themore » clean regions but significantly overestimates BCS in some polluted regions. Most model results fall into the uncertainty ranges of observations. The simulated BCS and DSTS are highest with >5000 ng g-1 and up to 5 mg g-1, respectively, over the source regions and reduce to <50 ng g-1 and <1 μg g-1, respectively, in the remote regions. BCS and DSTS introduce similar magnitude of radiative warming (~10 W m-2) in snowpack, which is comparable to the magnitude of surface radiative cooling due to BC and dust in the atmosphere. This study represents the first effort in using a regional modeling framework to simulate BC and dust and their direct radiative forcing in snow. Although a variety of observational datasets have been used to attribute model biases, some uncertainties in the results remain, which highlights the need for more observations, particularly concurrent measurements of atmospheric and snow aerosols and the deposition fluxes of aerosols, in future campaigns.« less

Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McGuire, A. David; Koven, Charles; Lawrence, David M.

A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO 2 and CH 4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3 m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulatedmore » rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8 × 10 3 km 2 yr –1). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954 Tg C yr –1 between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO 2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982–2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. Furthermore, to improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models.« less

Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009

DOE PAGES

McGuire, A. David; Koven, Charles; Lawrence, David M.; ...

2016-07-08

A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO 2 and CH 4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3 m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulatedmore » rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8 × 10 3 km 2 yr –1). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954 Tg C yr –1 between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO 2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982–2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. Furthermore, to improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models.« less

Influence of Lake Malawi on regional climate from a double-nested regional climate model experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diallo, Ismaïla; Giorgi, Filippo; Stordal, Frode

2017-07-01

We evaluate the performance of the regional climate model (RCM) RegCM4 coupled to a one dimensional lake model for Lake Malawi (also known as Lake Nyasa in Tanzania and Lago Niassa in Mozambique) in simulating the main characteristics of rainfall and near surface air temperature patterns over the region. We further investigate the impact of the lake on the simulated regional climate. Two RCM simulations, one with and one without Lake Malawi, are performed for the period 1992-2008 at a grid spacing of 10 km by nesting the model within a corresponding 25 km resolution run ("mother domain") encompassing all Southern Africa. The performance of the model in simulating the mean seasonal patterns of near surface air temperature and precipitation is good compared with previous applications of this model. The temperature biases are generally less than 2.5 °C, while the seasonal cycle of precipitation over the region matches observations well. Moreover, the one-dimensional lake model reproduces fairly well the geographical pattern of observed (from satellite measurements) lake surface temperature as well as its mean month-to-month evolution. The Malawi Lake-effects on the moisture and atmospheric circulation of the surrounding region result in an increase of water vapor mixing ratio due to increased evaporation in the presence of the lake, which combines with enhanced rising motions and low-level moisture convergence to yield a significant precipitation increase over the lake and neighboring areas during the whole austral summer rainy season.

Exploring a Variable-Resolution Approach for Simulating Regional Climate in the Rocky Mountain Region Using the VR-CESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Chenglai; Liu, Xiaohong; Lin, Zhaohui; Rhoades, Alan M.; Ullrich, Paul A.; Zarzycki, Colin M.; Lu, Zheng; Rahimi-Esfarjani, Stefan R.

2017-10-01

The reliability of climate simulations and projections, particularly in the regions with complex terrains, is greatly limited by the model resolution. In this study we evaluate the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) with a high-resolution (0.125°) refinement over the Rocky Mountain region. The VR-CESM results are compared with observations, as well as CESM simulation at a quasi-uniform 1° resolution (UNIF) and Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 (CRCM5) simulation at a 0.11° resolution. We find that VR-CESM is effective at capturing the observed spatial patterns of temperature, precipitation, and snowpack in the Rocky Mountains with the performance comparable to CRCM5, while UNIF is unable to do so. VR-CESM and CRCM5 simulate better the seasonal variations of precipitation than UNIF, although VR-CESM still overestimates winter precipitation whereas CRCM5 and UNIF underestimate it. All simulations distribute more winter precipitation along the windward (west) flanks of mountain ridges with the greatest overestimation in VR-CESM. VR-CESM simulates much greater snow water equivalent peaks than CRCM5 and UNIF, although the peaks are still 10-40% less than observations. Moreover, the frequency of heavy precipitation events (daily precipitation ≥ 25 mm) in VR-CESM and CRCM5 is comparable to observations, whereas the same events in UNIF are an order of magnitude less frequent. In addition, VR-CESM captures the observed occurrence frequency and seasonal variation of rain-on-snow days and performs better than UNIF and CRCM5. These results demonstrate the VR-CESM's capability in regional climate modeling over the mountainous regions and its promising applications for climate change studies.

Impacts of different characterizations of large-scale background on simulated regional-scale ozone over the continental United States

EPA Science Inventory

This study analyzes simulated regional-scale ozone burdens both near the surface and aloft, estimates process contributions to these burdens, and calculates the sensitivity of the simulated regional-scale ozone burden to several key model inputs with a particular emphasis on boun...

Urban Summertime Ozone of China: Peak Ozone Hour and Nighttime Mixing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, H.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, R.

2017-12-01

We investigate the observed diurnal cycle of summertime ozone in the cities of China using a regional chemical transport model. The simulated daytime ozone is in general agreement with the observations. Model simulations suggest that the ozone peak time and peak concentration are a function of NOx (NO + NO2) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions. The differences between simulated and observed ozone peak time and peak concentration in some regions can be applied to understand biases in the emission inventories. For example, the VOCs emissions are underestimated over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, and either NOx emissions are underestimated or VOC emissions are overestimated over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) regions. In contrast to the general good daytime ozone simulations, the simulated nighttime ozone has a large low bias of up to 40 ppbv. Nighttime ozone in urban areas is sensitive to the nocturnal boundary-layer mixing, and enhanced nighttime mixing (from the surface to 200-500 m) is necessary for the model to reproduce the observed level of ozone.

High-resolution, regional-scale crop yield simulations for the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stack, D. H.; Kafatos, M.; Medvigy, D.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Prasad, A. K.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.; Asrar, G. R.

2012-12-01

Over the past few decades, there have been many process-based crop models developed with the goal of better understanding the impacts of climate, soils, and management decisions on crop yields. These models simulate the growth and development of crops in response to environmental drivers. Traditionally, process-based crop models have been run at the individual farm level for yield optimization and management scenario testing. Few previous studies have used these models over broader geographic regions, largely due to the lack of gridded high-resolution meteorological and soil datasets required as inputs for these data intensive process-based models. In particular, assessment of regional-scale yield variability due to climate change requires high-resolution, regional-scale, climate projections, and such projections have been unavailable until recently. The goal of this study was to create a framework for extending the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) crop model for use at regional scales and analyze spatial and temporal yield changes in the Southwestern United States (CA, AZ, and NV). Using the scripting language Python, an automated pipeline was developed to link Regional Climate Model (RCM) output with the APSIM crop model, thus creating a one-way nested modeling framework. This framework was used to combine climate, soil, land use, and agricultural management datasets in order to better understand the relationship between climate variability and crop yield at the regional-scale. Three different RCMs were used to drive APSIM: OLAM, RAMS, and WRF. Preliminary results suggest that, depending on the model inputs, there is some variability between simulated RCM driven maize yields and historical yields obtained from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Furthermore, these simulations showed strong non-linear correlations between yield and meteorological drivers, with critical threshold values for some of the inputs (e.g. minimum and maximum temperature), beyond which the yields were negatively affected. These results are now being used for further regional-scale yield analysis as the aforementioned framework is adaptable to multiple geographic regions and crop types.

Model simulations and proxy-based reconstructions for the European region in the past millennium (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorita, E.

2009-12-01

One of the objectives when comparing simulations of past climates to proxy-based climate reconstructions is to asses the skill of climate models to simulate climate change. This comparison may accomplished at large spatial scales, for instance the evolution of simulated and reconstructed Northern Hemisphere annual temperature, or at regional or point scales. In both approaches a 'fair' comparison has to take into account different aspects that affect the inevitable uncertainties and biases in the simulations and in the reconstructions. These efforts face a trade-off: climate models are believed to be more skillful at large hemispheric scales, but climate reconstructions are these scales are burdened by the spatial distribution of available proxies and by methodological issues surrounding the statistical method used to translate the proxy information into large-spatial averages. Furthermore, the internal climatic noise at large hemispheric scales is low, so that the sampling uncertainty tends to be also low. On the other hand, the skill of climate models at regional scales is limited by the coarse spatial resolution, which hinders a faithful representation of aspects important for the regional climate. At small spatial scales, the reconstruction of past climate probably faces less methodological problems if information from different proxies is available. The internal climatic variability at regional scales is, however, high. In this contribution some examples of the different issues faced when comparing simulation and reconstructions at small spatial scales in the past millennium are discussed. These examples comprise reconstructions from dendrochronological data and from historical documentary data in Europe and climate simulations with global and regional models. These examples indicate that the centennial climate variations can offer a reasonable target to assess the skill of global climate models and of proxy-based reconstructions, even at small spatial scales. However, as the focus shifts towards higher frequency variability, decadal or multidecadal, the need for larger simulation ensembles becomes more evident. Nevertheless,the comparison at these time scales may expose some lines of research on the origin of multidecadal regional climate variability.

Stochastic Earthquake Rupture Modeling Using Nonparametric Co-Regionalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Kyungbook; Song, Seok Goo

2017-09-01

Accurate predictions of the intensity and variability of ground motions are essential in simulation-based seismic hazard assessment. Advanced simulation-based ground motion prediction methods have been proposed to complement the empirical approach, which suffers from the lack of observed ground motion data, especially in the near-source region for large events. It is important to quantify the variability of the earthquake rupture process for future events and to produce a number of rupture scenario models to capture the variability in simulation-based ground motion predictions. In this study, we improved the previously developed stochastic earthquake rupture modeling method by applying the nonparametric co-regionalization, which was proposed in geostatistics, to the correlation models estimated from dynamically derived earthquake rupture models. The nonparametric approach adopted in this study is computationally efficient and, therefore, enables us to simulate numerous rupture scenarios, including large events ( M > 7.0). It also gives us an opportunity to check the shape of true input correlation models in stochastic modeling after being deformed for permissibility. We expect that this type of modeling will improve our ability to simulate a wide range of rupture scenario models and thereby predict ground motions and perform seismic hazard assessment more accurately.

Near-surface wind variability over the broader Adriatic region: insights from an ensemble of regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belušić, Andreina; Prtenjak, Maja Telišman; Güttler, Ivan; Ban, Nikolina; Leutwyler, David; Schär, Christoph

2018-06-01

Over the past few decades the horizontal resolution of regional climate models (RCMs) has steadily increased, leading to a better representation of small-scale topographic features and more details in simulating dynamical aspects, especially in coastal regions and over complex terrain. Due to its complex terrain, the broader Adriatic region represents a major challenge to state-of-the-art RCMs in simulating local wind systems realistically. The objective of this study is to identify the added value in near-surface wind due to the refined grid spacing of RCMs. For this purpose, we use a multi-model ensemble composed of CORDEX regional climate simulations at 0.11° and 0.44° grid spacing, forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis, a COSMO convection-parameterizing simulation at 0.11° and a COSMO convection-resolving simulation at 0.02° grid spacing. Surface station observations from this region and satellite QuikSCAT data over the Adriatic Sea have been compared against daily output obtained from the available simulations. Both day-to-day wind and its frequency distribution are examined. The results indicate that the 0.44° RCMs rarely outperform ERA-Interim reanalysis, while the performance of the high-resolution simulations surpasses that of ERA-Interim. We also disclose that refining the grid spacing to a few km is needed to properly capture the small-scale wind systems. Finally, we show that the simulations frequently yield the accurate angle of local wind regimes, such as for the Bora flow, but overestimate the associated wind magnitude. Finally, spectral analysis shows good agreement between measurements and simulations, indicating the correct temporal variability of the wind speed.

Natural and anthropogenic land cover change and its impact on the regional climate and hydrological extremes over Sanjiangyuan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, P.; Yuan, X.

2017-12-01

Located in the northern Tibetan Plateau, Sanjiangyuan is the headwater region of the Yellow River, Yangtze River and Mekong River. Besides climate change, natural and human-induced land cover change (e.g., Graze for Grass Project) is also influencing the regional hydro-climate and hydrological extremes significantly. To quantify their impacts, a land surface model (LSM) with consideration of soil moisture-lateral surface flow interaction and quasi-three-dimensional subsurface flow, is used to conduct long-term high resolution simulations driven by China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System forcing data and different land cover scenarios. In particular, the role of surface and subsurface lateral flows is also analyzed by comparing with typical one-dimensional models. Lateral flows help to simulate soil moisture variability caused by topography at hyper-resolution (e.g., 100m), which is also essential for simulating hydrological extremes including soil moisture dryness/wetness and high/low flows. The LSM will also be coupled with a regional climate model to simulate the effect of natural and anthropogenic land cover change on regional climate, with particular focus on the land-atmosphere coupling at different resolutions with different configurations in modeling land surface hydrology.

Low resolution brain electromagnetic tomography in a realistic geometry head model: a simulation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Lei; Lai, Yuan; He, Bin

2005-01-01

It is of importance to localize neural sources from scalp recorded EEG. Low resolution brain electromagnetic tomography (LORETA) has received considerable attention for localizing brain electrical sources. However, most such efforts have used spherical head models in representing the head volume conductor. Investigation of the performance of LORETA in a realistic geometry head model, as compared with the spherical model, will provide useful information guiding interpretation of data obtained by using the spherical head model. The performance of LORETA was evaluated by means of computer simulations. The boundary element method was used to solve the forward problem. A three-shell realistic geometry (RG) head model was constructed from MRI scans of a human subject. Dipole source configurations of a single dipole located at different regions of the brain with varying depth were used to assess the performance of LORETA in different regions of the brain. A three-sphere head model was also used to approximate the RG head model, and similar simulations performed, and results compared with the RG-LORETA with reference to the locations of the simulated sources. Multi-source localizations were discussed and examples given in the RG head model. Localization errors employing the spherical LORETA, with reference to the source locations within the realistic geometry head, were about 20-30 mm, for four brain regions evaluated: frontal, parietal, temporal and occipital regions. Localization errors employing the RG head model were about 10 mm over the same four brain regions. The present simulation results suggest that the use of the RG head model reduces the localization error of LORETA, and that the RG head model based LORETA is desirable if high localization accuracy is needed.

Comparison of Two Grid Refinement Approaches for High Resolution Regional Climate Modeling: MPAS vs WRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, L.; Hagos, S. M.; Rauscher, S.; Ringler, T.

2012-12-01

This study compares two grid refinement approaches using global variable resolution model and nesting for high-resolution regional climate modeling. The global variable resolution model, Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), and the limited area model, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are compared in an idealized aqua-planet context with a focus on the spatial and temporal characteristics of tropical precipitation simulated by the models using the same physics package from the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4). For MPAS, simulations have been performed with a quasi-uniform resolution global domain at coarse (1 degree) and high (0.25 degree) resolution, and a variable resolution domain with a high-resolution region at 0.25 degree configured inside a coarse resolution global domain at 1 degree resolution. Similarly, WRF has been configured to run on a coarse (1 degree) and high (0.25 degree) resolution tropical channel domain as well as a nested domain with a high-resolution region at 0.25 degree nested two-way inside the coarse resolution (1 degree) tropical channel. The variable resolution or nested simulations are compared against the high-resolution simulations that serve as virtual reality. Both MPAS and WRF simulate 20-day Kelvin waves propagating through the high-resolution domains fairly unaffected by the change in resolution. In addition, both models respond to increased resolution with enhanced precipitation. Grid refinement induces zonal asymmetry in precipitation (heating), accompanied by zonal anomalous Walker like circulations and standing Rossby wave signals. However, there are important differences between the anomalous patterns in MPAS and WRF due to differences in the grid refinement approaches and sensitivity of model physics to grid resolution. This study highlights the need for "scale aware" parameterizations in variable resolution and nested regional models.

Regional warming of hot extremes accelerated by surface energy fluxes consistent with drying soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donat, M.; Pitman, A.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2017-12-01

Strong regional differences exist in how hot temperature extremes increase under global warming. Using an ensemble of coupled climate models, we examine the regional warming rates of hot extremes relative to annual average warming rates in the same regions. We identify hotspots of accelerated warming of model-simulated hot extremes in Europe, North America, South America and Southeast China. These hotspots indicate where the warm tail of a distribution of temperatures increases faster than the average and are robust across most CMIP5 models. Exploring the conditions on the specific day the hot extreme occurs demonstrates the hotspots are explained by changes in the surface energy fluxes consistent with drying soils. Furthermore, in these hotspot regions we find a relationship between the temperature - heat flux correlation under current climate conditions and the magnitude of future projected changes in hot extremes, pointing to a potential emergent constraint for simulations of future hot extremes. However, the model-simulated accelerated warming of hot extremes appears inconsistent with observations of the past 60 years, except over Europe. The simulated acceleration of hot extremes may therefore be unreliable, a result that necessitates a re-evaluation of how climate models resolve the relevant terrestrial processes.

Numerical Simulation of Regional Circulation in the Monterey Bay Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tseng, Y. H.; Dietrich, D. E.; Ferziger, J. H.

2003-01-01

The objective of this study is to produce a high-resolution numerical model of Mon- terey Bay area in which the dynamics are determined by the complex geometry of the coastline, steep bathymetry, and the in uence of the water masses that constitute the CCS. Our goal is to simulate the regional-scale ocean response with realistic dynamics (annual cycle), forcing, and domain. In particular, we focus on non-hydrostatic e ects (by comparing the results of hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic models) and the role of complex geometry, i.e. the bay and submarine canyon, on the nearshore circulation. To the best of our knowledge, the current study is the rst to simulate the regional circulation in the vicinity of Monterey Bay using a non-hydrostatic model. Section 2 introduces the high resolution Monterey Bay area regional model (MBARM). Section 3 provides the results and veri cation with mooring and satellite data. Section 4 compares the results of hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic models.

Linking a one-dimensional pesticide fate model to a three-dimensional groundwater model to simulate pollution risks of shallow and deep groundwater underlying fractured till.

PubMed

Stenemo, Fredrik; Jørgensen, Peter R; Jarvis, Nicholas

2005-09-01

The one-dimensional pesticide fate model MACRO was loose-linked to the three-dimensional discrete fracture/matrix diffusion model FRAC3DVS to describe transport of the pesticide mecoprop in a fractured moraine till and local sand aquifer (5-5.5 m depth) overlying a regional limestone aquifer (16 m depth) at Havdrup, Denmark. Alternative approaches to describe the upper boundary in the groundwater model were examined. Field-scale simulations were run to compare a uniform upper boundary condition with a spatially variable upper boundary derived from Monte-Carlo simulations with MACRO. Plot-scale simulations were run to investigate the influence of the temporal resolution of the upper boundary conditions for fluxes in the groundwater model and the effects of different assumptions concerning the macropore/fracture connectivity between the two models. The influence of within-field variability of leaching on simulated mecoprop concentrations in the local aquifer was relatively small. A fully transient simulation with FRAC3DVS gave 20 times larger leaching to the regional aquifer compared to the case with steady-state water flow, assuming full connectivity with respect to macropores/fractures across the boundary between the two models. For fully transient simulations 'disconnecting' the macropores/fractures at the interface between the two models reduced leaching by a factor 24. A fully connected, transient simulation with FRAC3DVS, with spatially uniform upper boundary fluxes derived from a MACRO simulation with 'effective' parameters is therefore recommended for assessing leaching risks to the regional aquifer, at this, and similar sites.

Evaluation of the CORDEX-Africa multi-RCM hindcast: systematic model errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Waliser, Duane E.; Mattmann, Chris A.; Goodale, Cameron E.; Hart, Andrew F.; Zimdars, Paul A.; Crichton, Daniel J.; Jones, Colin; Nikulin, Grigory; Hewitson, Bruce; Jack, Chris; Lennard, Christopher; Favre, Alice

2014-03-01

Monthly-mean precipitation, mean (TAVG), maximum (TMAX) and minimum (TMIN) surface air temperatures, and cloudiness from the CORDEX-Africa regional climate model (RCM) hindcast experiment are evaluated for model skill and systematic biases. All RCMs simulate basic climatological features of these variables reasonably, but systematic biases also occur across these models. All RCMs show higher fidelity in simulating precipitation for the west part of Africa than for the east part, and for the tropics than for northern Sahara. Interannual variation in the wet season rainfall is better simulated for the western Sahel than for the Ethiopian Highlands. RCM skill is higher for TAVG and TMAX than for TMIN, and regionally, for the subtropics than for the tropics. RCM skill in simulating cloudiness is generally lower than for precipitation or temperatures. For all variables, multi-model ensemble (ENS) generally outperforms individual models included in ENS. An overarching conclusion in this study is that some model biases vary systematically for regions, variables, and metrics, posing difficulties in defining a single representative index to measure model fidelity, especially for constructing ENS. This is an important concern in climate change impact assessment studies because most assessment models are run for specific regions/sectors with forcing data derived from model outputs. Thus, model evaluation and ENS construction must be performed separately for regions, variables, and metrics as required by specific analysis and/or assessments. Evaluations using multiple reference datasets reveal that cross-examination, quality control, and uncertainty estimates of reference data are crucial in model evaluations.

Modeling the Impacts of Global Climate and Regional Land Use Change on Regional Climate, Air Quality and Public Health in the New York Metropolitan Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenthal, J. E.; Knowlton, K. M.; Kinney, P. L.

2002-12-01

There is an imminent need to downscale the global climate models used by international consortiums like the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to predict the future regional impacts of climate change. To meet this need, a "place-based" climate model that makes specific regional projections about future environmental conditions local inhabitants could face is being created by the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, in collaboration with other researchers and universities, for New York City and the 31 surrounding counties. This presentation describes the design and initial results of this modeling study, aimed at simulating the effects of global climate change and regional land use change on climate and air quality over the northeastern United States in order to project the associated public health impacts in the region. Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone and fine particles are significant current public health stressors in the New York metropolitan area. The New York Climate and Health Project is linking human dimension and natural sciences models to assess the potential for future public health impacts from heat stress and air quality, and yield improved tools for assessing climate change impacts. The model will be applied to the NY metropolitan east coast region. The following questions will be addressed: 1. What changes in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events are likely to occur over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and land cover (LU/LC) and climate change in the region? 2. How might the frequency and severity of episodic concentrations of ozone (O3) and airborne particulate matter smaller than 2.5 æm in diameter (PM2.5) change over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and climate change in the metropolitan region? 3. What is the range of possible human health impacts of these changes in the region? 4. How might projected future human exposures and responses to heat stress and air quality differ as a function of socio-economic status and race/ethnicity across the region? The model systems used for this study are the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global Atmosphere-Ocean Model; the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) and PennState/NCAR MM5 mesoscale meteorological models; the SLEUTH land use model; the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions Modeling System (SMOKE); the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) and Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) models for simulating regional air quality; and exposure-risk coefficients for assessing population health impacts based on exposure to extreme heat, fine particulates (PM2.5) and ozone. Two different IPCC global emission scenarios and two different regional land use growth scenarios are considered in the simulations, spanning a range of possible futures. In addition to base simulations for selected time periods in the decade 1990 - 2000, the integrated model is used to simulate future scenarios in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Predictions from both the meteorological models and the air quality models are compared against available observations for the simulations in the 1990s to establish baseline model performance. A series of sensitivity tests will address whether changes in meteorology due to global climate change, changes in regional land use, or changes in emissions have the largest impact on predicted ozone and particulate matter concentrations.

On the validation of cloud parametrization schemes in numerical atmospheric models with satellite data from ISCCP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meinke, I.

2003-04-01

A new method is presented to validate cloud parametrization schemes in numerical atmospheric models with satellite data of scanning radiometers. This method is applied to the regional atmospheric model HRM (High Resolution Regional Model) using satellite data from ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project). Due to the limited reliability of former validations there has been a need for developing a new validation method: Up to now differences between simulated and measured cloud properties are mostly declared as deficiencies of the cloud parametrization scheme without further investigation. Other uncertainties connected with the model or with the measurements have not been taken into account. Therefore changes in the cloud parametrization scheme based on such kind of validations might not be realistic. The new method estimates uncertainties of the model and the measurements. Criteria for comparisons of simulated and measured data are derived to localize deficiencies in the model. For a better specification of these deficiencies simulated clouds are classified regarding their parametrization. With this classification the localized model deficiencies are allocated to a certain parametrization scheme. Applying this method to the regional model HRM the quality of forecasting cloud properties is estimated in detail. The overestimation of simulated clouds in low emissivity heights especially during the night is localized as model deficiency. This is caused by subscale cloudiness. As the simulation of subscale clouds in the regional model HRM is described by a relative humidity parametrization these deficiencies are connected with this parameterization.

A Parallel Sliding Region Algorithm to Make Agent-Based Modeling Possible for a Large-Scale Simulation: Modeling Hepatitis C Epidemics in Canada.

PubMed

Wong, William W L; Feng, Zeny Z; Thein, Hla-Hla

2016-11-01

Agent-based models (ABMs) are computer simulation models that define interactions among agents and simulate emergent behaviors that arise from the ensemble of local decisions. ABMs have been increasingly used to examine trends in infectious disease epidemiology. However, the main limitation of ABMs is the high computational cost for a large-scale simulation. To improve the computational efficiency for large-scale ABM simulations, we built a parallelizable sliding region algorithm (SRA) for ABM and compared it to a nonparallelizable ABM. We developed a complex agent network and performed two simulations to model hepatitis C epidemics based on the real demographic data from Saskatchewan, Canada. The first simulation used the SRA that processed on each postal code subregion subsequently. The second simulation processed the entire population simultaneously. It was concluded that the parallelizable SRA showed computational time saving with comparable results in a province-wide simulation. Using the same method, SRA can be generalized for performing a country-wide simulation. Thus, this parallel algorithm enables the possibility of using ABM for large-scale simulation with limited computational resources.

A multiscale quantum mechanics/electromagnetics method for device simulations.

PubMed

Yam, ChiYung; Meng, Lingyi; Zhang, Yu; Chen, GuanHua

2015-04-07

Multiscale modeling has become a popular tool for research applying to different areas including materials science, microelectronics, biology, chemistry, etc. In this tutorial review, we describe a newly developed multiscale computational method, incorporating quantum mechanics into electronic device modeling with the electromagnetic environment included through classical electrodynamics. In the quantum mechanics/electromagnetics (QM/EM) method, the regions of the system where active electron scattering processes take place are treated quantum mechanically, while the surroundings are described by Maxwell's equations and a semiclassical drift-diffusion model. The QM model and the EM model are solved, respectively, in different regions of the system in a self-consistent manner. Potential distributions and current densities at the interface between QM and EM regions are employed as the boundary conditions for the quantum mechanical and electromagnetic simulations, respectively. The method is illustrated in the simulation of several realistic systems. In the case of junctionless field-effect transistors, transfer characteristics are obtained and a good agreement between experiments and simulations is achieved. Optical properties of a tandem photovoltaic cell are studied and the simulations demonstrate that multiple QM regions are coupled through the classical EM model. Finally, the study of a carbon nanotube-based molecular device shows the accuracy and efficiency of the QM/EM method.

Water scarcity and economic damage in Europe: regionally relevant simulations from 2000 to 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhard, Jeroen; de Roo, Ad; Bisselink, Bernard; Gelati, Emiliano; Karssenberg, Derek; de Jong, Steven

2017-04-01

Water availability is unequally distributed across Europe. Where certain regions experience a surplus of water, other areas have limited water availability which causes economic damage to the water using sectors such as households, industries or agriculture. Future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions are expected to further increase the competition for available water that is already present in Europe. This means there is an increasing need for models that are able to simulate this multi-sectorial system of water availability and demand and incorporate the socio-economic component required for robust decisions and policy support. We present our modelling study which is focused at providing regionally relevant pan-European water scarcity and economic damage simulations. First we developed regionally relevant pan-European water demand simulations for the household and industry sector from 2000 up to 2050. For the household sector we developed a model to simulate water use based on water price, income and several other relevant variables at NUTS-3 level (over 1200 regions in Europe). Alternatively, we modelled industrial water use based on regionally downscaled water productivity values at the national level for ten sub-sections of the NACE (Nomenclature of Economic Activities) classification for economic activities. Subsequently we used scenario projections of our explanatory variables to make scenario simulations of water demand from 2000 up to 2050 at pan-European scale with unprecedented spatial and sub-sectorial detail. In order to analyze the European water use system we integrated these water demand scenarios into the hydrological rainfall-runoff model called LISFLOOD (Distributed Water Balance and Flood Simulation Model), which incorporates a vegetation module for the simulation of crop yield and irrigation water demand of the agriculture sector. We simulated river discharge and groundwater availability for abstractions of water using sectors across Europe from 2000 up to 2050 at 5km grid level for multiple climate and socio-economic scenarios. This allowed us to identify regions with water scarcity problems from the recent past up to 2050 and quantify the economic damage that can be attributed to the limited water availability. Results showed several regions where substantially more water is extracted from the system than what would be sustainable into the future. Furthermore, we analyzed how changing water prices or relocation of economic activities could reduce future water scarcity problems and decrease the related economical damage. We found that for some regions, relatively small measurers already could have a positive impact on water scarcity problems.

SIMULATING REGIONAL-SCALE AIR QUALITY WITH DYNAMIC CHANGES IN REGIONAL CLIMATE AND CHEMICAL BOUNDARY CONDITIONS

EPA Science Inventory

This poster compares air quality modeling simulations under current climate and a future (approximately 2050) climate scenario. Differences in predicted ozone episodes and daily average PM_2.5 concentrations are presented, along with vertical ozone profiles. Modeling ...

REGIONAL PARTICULATE MODEL - 1. MODEL DESCRIPTION AND PRELIMINARY RESULTS

EPA Science Inventory

The gas-phase chemistry and transport mechanisms of the Regional Acid Deposition Model have been modified to create the Regional Particulate Model, a three-dimensional Eulerian model that simulates the chemistry, transport, and dynamics of sulfuric acid aerosol resulting from pri...

The Regional Climate Model Evaluation System: A Systematic Evaluation Of CORDEX Simulations Using Obs4MIPs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodman, A.; Lee, H.; Waliser, D. E.; Guttowski, W.

2017-12-01

Observation-based evaluations of global climate models (GCMs) have been a key element for identifying systematic model biases that can be targeted for model improvements and for establishing uncertainty associated with projections of global climate change. However, GCMs are limited in their ability to represent physical phenomena which occur on smaller, regional scales, including many types of extreme weather events. In order to help facilitate projections in changes of such phenomena, simulations from regional climate models (RCMs) for 14 different domains around the world are being provided by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX; www.cordex.org). However, although CORDEX specifies standard simulation and archiving protocols, these simulations are conducted independently by individual research and modeling groups representing each of these domains often with different output requirements and data archiving and exchange capabilities. Thus, with respect to similar efforts using GCMs (e.g., the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP), it is more difficult to achieve a standardized, systematic evaluation of the RCMs for each domain and across all the CORDEX domains. Using the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES; rcmes.jpl.nasa.gov) developed at JPL, we are developing easy to use templates for performing systematic evaluations of CORDEX simulations. Results from the application of a number of evaluation metrics (e.g., biases, centered RMS, and pattern correlations) will be shown for a variety of physical quantities and CORDEX domains. These evaluations are performed using products from obs4MIPs, an activity initiated by DOE and NASA, and now shepherded by the World Climate Research Program's Data Advisory Council.

Introducing the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.; Winter, Jonathn M.; Marcella, Marc P.; Gianotti, Rebecca L.; Im, Eun-Soon

2013-04-01

During the last decade researchers at MIT have worked on improving the skill of Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) in simulating climate over different regions through the incorporation of new physical schemes or modification of original schemes. The MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM) features several modifications over RegCM3 including coupling of Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), a new surface albedo assignment method, a new convective cloud and rainfall auto-conversion scheme, and a modified boundary layer height and cloud scheme. Here, we introduce the MRCM and briefly describe the major model modifications relative to RegCM3 and their impact on the model performance. The most significant difference relative to the RegCM3 original configuration is coupling the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) land-surface scheme (Winter et al., 2009). Based on the simulations using IBIS over the North America, the Maritime Continent, Southwest Asia and West Africa, we demonstrate that the use of IBIS as the land surface scheme results in better representation of surface energy and water budgets in comparison to BATS. Furthermore, the addition of a new irrigation scheme to IBIS makes it possible to investigate the effects of irrigation over any region. Also a new surface albedo assignment method used together with IBIS brings further improvement in simulations of surface radiation (Marcella and Eltahir, 2013). Another important feature of the MRCM is the introduction of a new convective cloud and rainfall auto-conversion scheme (Gianotti and Eltahir, 2013). This modification brings more physical realism into an important component of the model, and succeeds in simulating convective-radiative feedback improving model performance across several radiation fields and rainfall characteristics. Other features of MRCM such as the modified boundary layer height and cloud scheme, and the improvements in the dust emission and transport representations will be discussed.

Simulating Turbulent Wind Fields for Offshore Turbines in Hurricane-Prone Regions (Poster)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guo, Y.; Damiani, R.; Musial, W.

Extreme wind load cases are one of the most important external conditions in the design of offshore wind turbines in hurricane prone regions. Furthermore, in these areas, the increase in load with storm return-period is higher than in extra-tropical regions. However, current standards have limited information on the appropriate models to simulate wind loads from hurricanes. This study investigates turbulent wind models for load analysis of offshore wind turbines subjected to hurricane conditions. Suggested extreme wind models in IEC 61400-3 and API/ABS (a widely-used standard in oil and gas industry) are investigated. The present study further examines the wind turbinemore » response subjected to Hurricane wind loads. Three-dimensional wind simulator, TurbSim, is modified to include the API wind model. Wind fields simulated using IEC and API wind models are used for an offshore wind turbine model established in FAST to calculate turbine loads and response.« less

Evaluating WRF-Chem multi-scale model in simulating aerosol radiative properties over the tropics – A case study over India

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seethala, C.; Pandithurai, G.; Fast, Jerome D.

We utilized WRF-Chem multi-scale model to simulate the regional distribution of aerosols, optical properties and its effect on radiation over India for a winter month. The model is evaluated using measurements obtained from upper-air soundings, AERONET sun photometers, various satellite instruments, and pyranometers operated by the Indian Meteorological Department. The simulated downward shortwave flux was overestimated when the effect of aerosols on radiation and clouds was neglected. Downward shortwave radiation from a simulation that included aerosol-radiation interaction processes was 5 to 25 Wm{sup -2} closer to the observations, while a simulation that included aerosol-cloud interaction processes were another 1 tomore » 20 Wm{sup -2} closer to the observations. For the few observations available, the model usually underestimated particulate concentration. This is likely due to turbulent mixing, transport errors and the lack of secondary organic aerosol treatment in the model. The model efficiently captured the broad regional hotspots such as high aerosol optical depth over Indo-Gangetic basin as well as the northwestern and southern part of India. The regional distribution of aerosol optical depth compares well with AVHRR aerosol optical depth and the TOMS aerosol index. The magnitude and wavelength-dependence of simulated aerosol optical depth was also similar to the AERONET observations across India. Differences in surface shortwave radiation between simulations that included and neglected aerosol-radiation interactions were as high as -25 Wm{sup -2}, while differences in surface shortwave radiation between simulations that included and neglect aerosol-radiation-cloud interactions were as high as -30 Wm{sup -2}. The spatial variations of these differences were also compared with AVHRR observation. This study suggests that the model is able to qualitatively simulate the impact of aerosols on radiation over India; however, additional measurements of particulate mass and composition are needed to fully evaluate whether the aerosol precursor emissions are adequate when simulating radiative forcing in the region.« less

Assessment of CMIP5 historical simulations of rainfall over Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Liu, Jiandong; Nguyen, Ngoc Son; Vu, Minh Tue; Liong, Shie-Yui

2018-05-01

We present preliminary analyses of the historical (1986-2005) climate simulations of a ten-member subset of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models over Southeast Asia. The objective of this study was to evaluate the general circulation models' performance in simulating the mean state of climate over this less-studied climate vulnerable region, with a focus on precipitation. Results indicate that most of the models are unable to reproduce the observed state of climate over Southeast Asia. Though the multi-model ensemble mean is a better representation of the observations, the uncertainties in the individual models are far high. There is no particular model that performed well in simulating the historical climate of Southeast Asia. There seems to be no significant influence of the spatial resolutions of the models on the quality of simulation, despite the view that higher resolution models fare better. The study results emphasize on careful consideration of models for impact studies and the need to improve the next generation of models in their ability to simulate regional climates better.

Some issues in uncertainty quantification and parameter tuning: a case study of convective parameterization scheme in the WRF regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, B.; Qian, Y.; Lin, G.; Leung, R.; Zhang, Y.

2011-12-01

The current tuning process of parameters in global climate models is often performed subjectively or treated as an optimization procedure to minimize model biases based on observations. While the latter approach may provide more plausible values for a set of tunable parameters to approximate the observed climate, the system could be forced to an unrealistic physical state or improper balance of budgets through compensating errors over different regions of the globe. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to provide a more flexible framework to investigate a number of issues related uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter tuning. The WRF model was constrained by reanalysis of data over the Southern Great Plains (SGP), where abundant observational data from various sources was available for calibration of the input parameters and validation of the model results. Focusing on five key input parameters in the new Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization scheme used in WRF as an example, the purpose of this study was to explore the utility of high-resolution observations for improving simulations of regional patterns and evaluate the transferability of UQ and parameter tuning across physical processes, spatial scales, and climatic regimes, which have important implications to UQ and parameter tuning in global and regional models. A stochastic important-sampling algorithm, Multiple Very Fast Simulated Annealing (MVFSA) was employed to efficiently sample the input parameters in the KF scheme based on a skill score so that the algorithm progressively moved toward regions of the parameter space that minimize model errors. The results based on the WRF simulations with 25-km grid spacing over the SGP showed that the precipitation bias in the model could be significantly reduced when five optimal parameters identified by the MVFSA algorithm were used. The model performance was found to be sensitive to downdraft- and entrainment-related parameters and consumption time of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). Simulated convective precipitation decreased as the ratio of downdraft to updraft flux increased. Larger CAPE consumption time resulted in less convective but more stratiform precipitation. The simulation using optimal parameters obtained by constraining only precipitation generated positive impact on the other output variables, such as temperature and wind. By using the optimal parameters obtained at 25-km simulation, both the magnitude and spatial pattern of simulated precipitation were improved at 12-km spatial resolution. The optimal parameters identified from the SGP region also improved the simulation of precipitation when the model domain was moved to another region with a different climate regime (i.e., the North America monsoon region). These results suggest that benefits of optimal parameters determined through vigorous mathematical procedures such as the MVFSA process are transferable across processes, spatial scales, and climatic regimes to some extent. This motivates future studies to further assess the strategies for UQ and parameter optimization at both global and regional scales.

Uncertainty Quantification and Parameter Tuning: A Case Study of Convective Parameterization Scheme in the WRF Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Y.; Yang, B.; Lin, G.; Leung, R.; Zhang, Y.

2012-04-01

The current tuning process of parameters in global climate models is often performed subjectively or treated as an optimization procedure to minimize model biases based on observations. The latter approach may provide more plausible values for a set of tunable parameters to approximate the observed climate, the system could be forced to an unrealistic physical state or improper balance of budgets through compensating errors over different regions of the globe. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to provide a more flexible framework to investigate a number of issues related uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter tuning. The WRF model was constrained by reanalysis of data over the Southern Great Plains (SGP), where abundant observational data from various sources was available for calibration of the input parameters and validation of the model results. Focusing on five key input parameters in the new Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization scheme used in WRF as an example, the purpose of this study was to explore the utility of high-resolution observations for improving simulations of regional patterns and evaluate the transferability of UQ and parameter tuning across physical processes, spatial scales, and climatic regimes, which have important implications to UQ and parameter tuning in global and regional models. A stochastic important-sampling algorithm, Multiple Very Fast Simulated Annealing (MVFSA) was employed to efficiently sample the input parameters in the KF scheme based on a skill score so that the algorithm progressively moved toward regions of the parameter space that minimize model errors. The results based on the WRF simulations with 25-km grid spacing over the SGP showed that the precipitation bias in the model could be significantly reduced when five optimal parameters identified by the MVFSA algorithm were used. The model performance was found to be sensitive to downdraft- and entrainment-related parameters and consumption time of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). Simulated convective precipitation decreased as the ratio of downdraft to updraft flux increased. Larger CAPE consumption time resulted in less convective but more stratiform precipitation. The simulation using optimal parameters obtained by constraining only precipitation generated positive impact on the other output variables, such as temperature and wind. By using the optimal parameters obtained at 25-km simulation, both the magnitude and spatial pattern of simulated precipitation were improved at 12-km spatial resolution. The optimal parameters identified from the SGP region also improved the simulation of precipitation when the model domain was moved to another region with a different climate regime (i.e., the North America monsoon region). These results suggest that benefits of optimal parameters determined through vigorous mathematical procedures such as the MVFSA process are transferable across processes, spatial scales, and climatic regimes to some extent. This motivates future studies to further assess the strategies for UQ and parameter optimization at both global and regional scales.

Some issues in uncertainty quantification and parameter tuning: a case study of convective parameterization scheme in the WRF regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, B.; Qian, Y.; Lin, G.; Leung, R.; Zhang, Y.

2012-03-01

The current tuning process of parameters in global climate models is often performed subjectively or treated as an optimization procedure to minimize model biases based on observations. While the latter approach may provide more plausible values for a set of tunable parameters to approximate the observed climate, the system could be forced to an unrealistic physical state or improper balance of budgets through compensating errors over different regions of the globe. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to provide a more flexible framework to investigate a number of issues related uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter tuning. The WRF model was constrained by reanalysis of data over the Southern Great Plains (SGP), where abundant observational data from various sources was available for calibration of the input parameters and validation of the model results. Focusing on five key input parameters in the new Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization scheme used in WRF as an example, the purpose of this study was to explore the utility of high-resolution observations for improving simulations of regional patterns and evaluate the transferability of UQ and parameter tuning across physical processes, spatial scales, and climatic regimes, which have important implications to UQ and parameter tuning in global and regional models. A stochastic importance sampling algorithm, Multiple Very Fast Simulated Annealing (MVFSA) was employed to efficiently sample the input parameters in the KF scheme based on a skill score so that the algorithm progressively moved toward regions of the parameter space that minimize model errors. The results based on the WRF simulations with 25-km grid spacing over the SGP showed that the precipitation bias in the model could be significantly reduced when five optimal parameters identified by the MVFSA algorithm were used. The model performance was found to be sensitive to downdraft- and entrainment-related parameters and consumption time of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). Simulated convective precipitation decreased as the ratio of downdraft to updraft flux increased. Larger CAPE consumption time resulted in less convective but more stratiform precipitation. The simulation using optimal parameters obtained by constraining only precipitation generated positive impact on the other output variables, such as temperature and wind. By using the optimal parameters obtained at 25-km simulation, both the magnitude and spatial pattern of simulated precipitation were improved at 12-km spatial resolution. The optimal parameters identified from the SGP region also improved the simulation of precipitation when the model domain was moved to another region with a different climate regime (i.e. the North America monsoon region). These results suggest that benefits of optimal parameters determined through vigorous mathematical procedures such as the MVFSA process are transferable across processes, spatial scales, and climatic regimes to some extent. This motivates future studies to further assess the strategies for UQ and parameter optimization at both global and regional scales.

Causes of Cool-Season Precipitation Bias in the East South Central U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bukovsky, M. S.; McCrary, R. R.; Rendfrey, T. S.; Schroeder, A. D.; Mearns, L.

2017-12-01

A climatological maximum in cool-season precipitation, secondary to that in the Pacific Northwest, exists in the East South Central U.S. region (ESC). Many regional climate simulations have difficulty reproducing this maximum, whether forced with a reanalysis or global climate model (GCM). This problem exists in some, but not all, of the simulations completed for the North American component of CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) and NARCCAP (North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program). We use both of these ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations to examine precipitation and some of the factors that govern its climatology in this region to develop a better understanding of why some simulations perform better than others. The ESC roughly encompasses the Lower Mississippi, western South Atlantic, southern Ohio and Tennessee hydrologic regions. Cool-season precipitation (November-April) in the ESC is often convective in nature and strongly forced. In this presentation, we will examine some of the potential causes of the climatological precipitation bias for this region, including bias in: sea-surface temperature, moisture flux, El Nino-Southern Oscillation teleconnections, and the climatology of extratropical cyclones. We will also examine simulation configurations to identify any common threads between the simulations that perform better and those that perform worse.

Assessment of the Ability of Contemporary Climate Models to Assess Adequately the Risk of Possible Regional Anomalies and Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mokhov, I. I.

2018-04-01

The results describing the ability of contemporary global and regional climate models not only to assess the risk of general trends of changes but also to predict qualitatively new regional effects are presented. In particular, model simulations predicted spatially inhomogeneous changes in the wind and wave conditions in the Arctic basins, which have been confirmed in recent years. According to satellite and reanalysis data, a qualitative transition to the regime predicted by model simulations occurred about a decade ago.

The regional climate model RegCM3 performances over several regions and climate regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coppola, E.; Rauscher, S.; Gao, X.; Giorgi, F.; Im, E. S.; Mariotti, L.; Seth, A.; Sylla, M. B.

2009-04-01

Regional Climate models are more and more needed to provide high resolution regional climate information in climate impact studies. Water availability in a future scenario is the main request of policy makers for adaptation and mitigation purposes. However precipitation changes are unlikely to be as spatially coherent as temperature changes and they are closely related to the regional model itself. In addition model skill varies regionally. An example of several ICTP regional climate model (RegCM3) simulations is reported over China, Korea, Africa, Central and Southern America, Europe and Australia. Over China, Australia, and Korea the regional model improves the simulation compared to the driving GCM when compared with CRU observations. In China, for example, the higher resolution of the regional model inhibits the penetration of the monsoon precipitation front from the southern slope of the Himalaya onto the Tibetan Plateau. In Korea the nested domain simulation (20 km) shows an encouraging performance with regard to capturing extreme precipitation episodes and the finer spatial distribution reflects the detailed geography of the Korean Peninsula. Over South America, RegCM captures the annual cycle of precipitation over Northeast Brazil and the South American Monsoon region, although the monsoon onset occurs too early in the model. Precipitation over the Amazon is not well captured, with too little precipitation associated with weak easterlies and reduced moisture transport into the interior of the continent. RegCM simulates the annual cycle of precipitation over Central America and the Caribbean fairly well; in particular, the complex spatial distribution of the Mid-Summer Drought, a decrease in precipitation that occurs during the middle of the rainy season in July and August, is better captured by RegCM than by the GCM. In addition, RegCM simulates the strength and position of the Caribbean low level jet, a mesoscale feature related to precipitation anomalies in the region. Over Africa our analysis shows that RegCM3 is able to reproduce fairly well the spatial variability of seasonal mean temperature, precipitation and the associated low-level circulation. However, monsoon flow is over predicted while African Easterly Jet (AEJ) core underestimated and shifted a bit northward. Finally, over Europe the regional model shows a cold bias for most part of the year and a wet bias in winter and spring. Rain frequency is too high especially over the mountainous regions. The spatial patter of the precipitation extreme is well represented in the model although a slight overestimation of the 95, 98 99 percentile is evident.

WRF/CMAQ AQMEII3 Simulations of U.S. Regional-Scale Ozone: Sensitivity to Processes and Inputs

EPA Science Inventory

Chemical boundary conditions are a key input to regional-scale photochemical models. In this study, performed during the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3), we perform annual simulations over North America with chemical boundary con...

Simulating the impact of the large-scale circulation on the 2-m temperature and precipitation climatology

EPA Science Inventory

The impact of the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation on the regional climate is examined using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a regional climate model. The purpose is to understand the potential need for interior grid nudging for dynamical downscal...

Improving the simulation of convective dust storms in regional-to-global models

EPA Science Inventory

Convective dust storms have significant impacts on atmospheric conditions and air quality and are a major source of dust uplift in summertime. However, regional-to-global models generally do not accurately simulate these storms, a limitation that can be attributed to (1) using a ...

A Model-Model and Data-Model Comparison for the Early Eocene Hydrological Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carmichael, Matthew J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Huber, Matthew; Heinemann, Malte; Kiehl, Jeffrey; LeGrande, Allegra; Loptson, Claire A.; Roberts, Chris D.; Sagoo, Navjit; Shields, Christine

2016-01-01

A range of proxy observations have recently provided constraints on how Earth's hydrological cycle responded to early Eocene climatic changes. However, comparisons of proxy data to general circulation model (GCM) simulated hydrology are limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterised. In this work, we undertake an intercomparison of GCM-derived precipitation and P - E distributions within the extended EoMIP ensemble (Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project; Lunt et al., 2012), which includes previously published early Eocene simulations performed using five GCMs differing in boundary conditions, model structure, and precipitation-relevant parameterisation schemes. We show that an intensified hydrological cycle, manifested in enhanced global precipitation and evaporation rates, is simulated for all Eocene simulations relative to the preindustrial conditions. This is primarily due to elevated atmospheric paleo-CO2, resulting in elevated temperatures, although the effects of differences in paleogeography and ice sheets are also important in some models. For a given CO2 level, globally averaged precipitation rates vary widely between models, largely arising from different simulated surface air temperatures. Models with a similar global sensitivity of precipitation rate to temperature (dP=dT ) display different regional precipitation responses for a given temperature change. Regions that are particularly sensitive to model choice include the South Pacific, tropical Africa, and the Peri-Tethys, which may represent targets for future proxy acquisition. A comparison of early and middle Eocene leaf-fossil-derived precipitation estimates with the GCM output illustrates that GCMs generally underestimate precipitation rates at high latitudes, although a possible seasonal bias of the proxies cannot be excluded. Models which warm these regions, either via elevated CO2 or by varying poorly constrained model parameter values, are most successful in simulating a match with geologic data. Further data from low-latitude regions and better constraints on early Eocene CO2 are now required to discriminate between these model simulations given the large error bars on paleoprecipitation estimates. Given the clear differences between simulated precipitation distributions within the ensemble, our results suggest that paleohydrological data offer an independent means by which to evaluate model skill for warm climates.

Assessment of South Asian Summer Monsoon Simulation in CMIP5-Coupled Climate Models During the Historical Period (1850-2005)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasanna, Venkatraman

2016-04-01

This paper evaluates the performance of 29 state-of-art CMIP5-coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) in their representation of regional characteristics of monsoon simulation over South Asia. The AOGCMs, despite their relatively coarse resolution, have shown some reasonable skill in simulating the mean monsoon and precipitation variability over the South Asian monsoon region. However, considerable biases do exist with reference to the observed precipitation and also inter-model differences. The monsoon rainfall and surface flux bias with respect to the observations from the historical run for the period nominally from 1850 to 2005 are discussed in detail. Our results show that the coupled model simulations over South Asia exhibit large uncertainties from one model to the other. The analysis clearly brings out the presence of large systematic biases in coupled simulation of boreal summer precipitation, evaporation, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean, often exceeding 50 % of the climatological values. Many of the biases are common to many models. Overall, the coupled models need further improvement in realistically portraying boreal summer monsoon over the South Asian monsoon region.

Simulation of the summer circulation over South America by two regional climate models. Part I: Mean climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, J. P. R.; Franchito, S. H.; Rao, V. B.

2006-09-01

This study investigates the capabilities of two regional models (the ICTP RegCM3 and the climate version of the CPTEC Eta model - EtaClim) in simulating the mean climatological features of the summer quasi-stationary circulations over South America. Comparing the results with the NCEP/DOE reanalysis II data it is seen that the RegCM3 simulates a weaker and southward shifted Bolivian high (BH). But, the Nordeste low (NL) is located close to its climatological position. In the EtaClim the position of the BH is reproduced well, but the NL is shifted towards the interior of the continent. To the east of Andes, the RegCM3 simulates a weaker low level jet and a weaker basic flow from the tropical Atlantic to Amazonia while they are stronger in the EtaClim. In general, the RegCM3 and EtaClim show, respectively a negative and positive bias in the surface temperature in almost all regions of South America. For both models, the correlation coefficients between the simulated precipitation and the GPCP data are high over most of South America. Although the RegCM3 and EtaClim overestimate the precipitation in the Andes region they show a negative bias in general over the entire South America. The simulations of upper and lower level circulations and precipitation fields in EtaClim were better than that of the RegCM3. In central Amazonia both models were unable to simulate the precipitation correctly. The results showed that although the RegCM3 and EtaClim are capable of simulating the main climatological features of the summer climate over South America, there are areas which need improvement. This indicates that the models must be more adequately tuned in order to give reliable predictions in the different regions of South America.

The Challenge of Simulating the Regional Climate over Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misra, V.; Mishra, A. K.

2015-12-01

In this study we show that the unique geography of the peninsular Florida with close proximity to strong mesoscale surface ocean currents among other factors warrants the use of relatively high resolution climate models to project Florida's hydroclimate. In the absence of such high resolution climate models we highlight the deficiencies of two relatively coarse spatial resolution CMIP5 models with respect to the warm western boundary current of the Gulf Stream. As a consequence it affects the coastal SST and the land-ocean contrast, affecting the rainy summer seasonal precipitation accumulation over peninsular Florida. We also show this through two sensitivity studies conducted with a regional coupled ocean atmosphere model with different bathymetries that dislocate and modulate the strength of the Gulf Stream that locally affects the SST in the two simulations. These studies show that a stronger and more easterly displaced Gulf Stream produces warmer coastal SST's along the Atlantic coast of Florida that enhances the precipitation over peninsular Florida relative to the other regional climate model simulation. However the regional model simulations indicate that variability of wet season rainfall variability in peninsular Florida becomes less dependent on the land-ocean contrast with a stronger Gulf Stream current.

Evaluation of CMIP5 continental precipitation simulations relative to satellite-based gauge-adjusted observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehran, A.; AghaKouchak, A.; Phillips, T. J.

2014-02-01

The objective of this study is to cross-validate 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations of precipitation against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, quantifying model pattern discrepancies, and biases for both entire distributions and their upper tails. The results of the volumetric hit index (VHI) analysis of the total monthly precipitation amounts show that most CMIP5 simulations are in good agreement with GPCP patterns in many areas but that their replication of observed precipitation over arid regions and certain subcontinental regions (e.g., northern Eurasia, eastern Russia, and central Australia) is problematical. Overall, the VHI of the multimodel ensemble mean and median also are superior to that of the individual CMIP5 models. However, at high quantiles of reference data (75th and 90th percentiles), all climate models display low skill in simulating precipitation, except over North America, the Amazon, and Central Africa. Analyses of total bias (B) in CMIP5 simulations reveal that most models overestimate precipitation over regions of complex topography (e.g., western North and South America and southern Africa and Asia), while underestimating it over arid regions. Also, while most climate model simulations show low biases over Europe, intermodel variations in bias over Australia and Amazonia are considerable. The quantile bias analyses indicate that CMIP5 simulations are even more biased at high quantiles of precipitation. It is found that a simple mean field bias removal improves the overall B and VHI values but does not make a significant improvement at high quantiles of precipitation.

Natural climate variability and teleconnections to precipitation over the Pacific-North American region in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polade, Suraj D.; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Pierce, David W.

2013-05-01

climate variability will continue to be an important aspect of future regional climate even in the midst of long-term secular changes. Consequently, the ability of climate models to simulate major natural modes of variability and their teleconnections provides important context for the interpretation and use of climate change projections. Comparisons reported here indicate that the CMIP5 generation of global climate models shows significant improvements in simulations of key Pacific climate mode and their teleconnections to North America compared to earlier CMIP3 simulations. The performance of 14 models with simulations in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives are assessed using singular value decomposition analysis of simulated and observed winter Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and concurrent precipitation over the contiguous United States and northwestern Mexico. Most of the models reproduce basic features of the key natural mode and their teleconnections, albeit with notable regional deviations from observations in both SST and precipitation. Increasing horizontal resolution in the CMIP5 simulations is an important, but not a necessary, factor in the improvement from CMIP3 to CMIP5.

Natural climate variability and teleconnections to precipitation over the Pacific-North American region in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Polade, Suraj D.; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Pierce, David W.

2013-01-01

Natural climate variability will continue to be an important aspect of future regional climate even in the midst of long-term secular changes. Consequently, the ability of climate models to simulate major natural modes of variability and their teleconnections provides important context for the interpretation and use of climate change projections. Comparisons reported here indicate that the CMIP5 generation of global climate models shows significant improvements in simulations of key Pacific climate mode and their teleconnections to North America compared to earlier CMIP3 simulations. The performance of 14 models with simulations in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives are assessed using singular value decomposition analysis of simulated and observed winter Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and concurrent precipitation over the contiguous United States and northwestern Mexico. Most of the models reproduce basic features of the key natural mode and their teleconnections, albeit with notable regional deviations from observations in both SST and precipitation. Increasing horizontal resolution in the CMIP5 simulations is an important, but not a necessary, factor in the improvement from CMIP3 to CMIP5.

Changes in U.S. Regional-Scale Air Quality at 2030 Simulated Using RCP 6.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nolte, C. G.; Otte, T.; Pinder, R. W.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2012-12-01

Recent improvements in air quality in the United States have been due to significant reductions in emissions of ozone and particulate matter (PM) precursors, and these downward emissions trends are expected to continue in the next few decades. To ensure that planned air quality regulations are robust under a range of possible future climates and to consider possible policy actions to mitigate climate change, it is important to characterize and understand the effects of climate change on air quality. Recent work by several research groups using global and regional models has demonstrated that there is a "climate penalty," in which climate change leads to increases in surface ozone levels in polluted continental regions. One approach to simulating future air quality at the regional scale is via dynamical downscaling, in which fields from a global climate model are used as input for a regional climate model, and these regional climate data are subsequently used for chemical transport modeling. However, recent studies using this approach have encountered problems with the downscaled regional climate fields, including unrealistic surface temperatures and misrepresentation of synoptic pressure patterns such as the Bermuda High. We developed a downscaling methodology and showed that it now reasonably simulates regional climate by evaluating it against historical data. In this work, regional climate simulations created by downscaling the NASA/GISS Model E2 global climate model are used as input for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. CMAQ simulations over the continental United States are conducted for two 11-year time slices, one representing current climate (1995-2005) and one following Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 from 2025-2035. Anthropogenic emissions of ozone and PM precursors are held constant at year 2006 levels for both the current and future periods. In our presentation, we will examine the changes in ozone and PM concentrations, with particular focus on exceedances of the current U.S. air quality standards, and attempt to relate the changes in air quality to the projected changes in regional climate.

Improved simulation of group averaged CO2 surface concentrations using GEOS-Chem and fluxes from VEGAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Z. H.; Zhu, J.; Zeng, N.

2013-01-01

CO2 measurements have been combined with simulated CO2 distributions from a transport model in order to produce the optimal estimates of CO2 surface fluxes in inverse modeling. However one persistent problem in using model-observation comparisons for this goal relates to the issue of compatibility. Observations at a single site reflect all underlying processes of various scales that usually cannot be fully resolved by model simulations at the grid points nearest the site due to lack of spatial or temporal resolution or missing processes in models. In this article we group site observations of multiple stations according to atmospheric mixing regimes and surface characteristics. The group averaged values of CO2 concentration from model simulations and observations are used to evaluate the regional model results. Using the group averaged measurements of CO2 reduces the noise of individual stations. The difference of group averaged values between observation and modeled results reflects the uncertainties of the large scale flux in the region where the grouped stations are. We compared the group averaged values between model results with two biospheric fluxes from the model Carnegie-Ames-Stanford-Approach (CASA) and VEgetation-Global-Atmosphere-Soil (VEGAS) and observations to evaluate the regional model results. Results show that the modeling group averaged values of CO2 concentrations in all regions with fluxes from VEGAS have significant improvements for most regions. There is still large difference between two model results and observations for grouped average values in North Atlantic, Indian Ocean, and South Pacific Tropics. This implies possible large uncertainties in the fluxes there.

The Effect of Lateral Boundary Values on Atmospheric Mercury Simulations with the CMAQ Model

EPA Science Inventory

Simulation results from three global-scale models of atmospheric mercury have been used to define three sets of initial condition and boundary condition (IC/BC) data for regional-scale model simulations over North America using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. ...

Sensitivity of a Cloud-Resolving Model to the Bulk and Explicit Bin Microphysical Schemes. Part 1; Validations with a PRE-STORM Case

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Xiao-Wen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Khain, Alexander P.; Simpson, Joanne; Johnson, Daniel E.

2004-01-01

A cloud-resolving model is used to study sensitivities of two different microphysical schemes, one is the bulk type, and the other is an explicit bin scheme, in simulating a mid-latitude squall line case (PRE-STORM, June 10-11, 1985). Simulations using different microphysical schemes are compared with each other and also with the observations. Both the bulk and bin models reproduce the general features during the developing and mature stage of the system. The leading convective zone, the trailing stratiform region, the horizontal wind flow patterns, pressure perturbation associated with the storm dynamics, and the cool pool in front of the system all agree well with the observations. Both the observations and the bulk scheme simulation serve as validations for the newly incorporated bin scheme. However, it is also shown that, the bulk and bin simulations have distinct differences, most notably in the stratiform region. Weak convective cells exist in the stratiform region in the bulk simulation, but not in the bin simulation. These weak convective cells in the stratiform region are remnants of the previous stronger convections at the leading edge of the system. The bin simulation, on the other hand, has a horizontally homogeneous stratiform cloud structure, which agrees better with the observations. Preliminary examinations of the downdraft core strength, the potential temperature perturbation, and the evaporative cooling rate show that the differences between the bulk and bin models are due mainly to the stronger low-level evaporative cooling in convective zone simulated in the bulk model. Further quantitative analysis and sensitivity tests for this case using both the bulk and bin models will be presented in a companion paper.

Death Valley regional groundwater flow system, Nevada and California-Hydrogeologic framework and transient groundwater flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belcher, Wayne R.; Sweetkind, Donald S.

2010-01-01

A numerical three-dimensional (3D) transient groundwater flow model of the Death Valley region was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey for the U.S. Department of Energy programs at the Nevada Test Site and at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Decades of study of aspects of the groundwater flow system and previous less extensive groundwater flow models were incorporated and reevaluated together with new data to provide greater detail for the complex, digital model. A 3D digital hydrogeologic framework model (HFM) was developed from digital elevation models, geologic maps, borehole information, geologic and hydrogeologic cross sections, and other 3D models to represent the geometry of the hydrogeologic units (HGUs). Structural features, such as faults and fractures, that affect groundwater flow also were added. The HFM represents Precambrian and Paleozoic crystalline and sedimentary rocks, Mesozoic sedimentary rocks, Mesozoic to Cenozoic intrusive rocks, Cenozoic volcanic tuffs and lavas, and late Cenozoic sedimentary deposits of the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system (DVRFS) region in 27 HGUs. Information from a series of investigations was compiled to conceptualize and quantify hydrologic components of the groundwater flow system within the DVRFS model domain and to provide hydraulic-property and head-observation data used in the calibration of the transient-flow model. These studies reevaluated natural groundwater discharge occurring through evapotranspiration (ET) and spring flow; the history of groundwater pumping from 1913 through 1998; groundwater recharge simulated as net infiltration; model boundary inflows and outflows based on regional hydraulic gradients and water budgets of surrounding areas; hydraulic conductivity and its relation to depth; and water levels appropriate for regional simulation of prepumped and pumped conditions within the DVRFS model domain. Simulation results appropriate for the regional extent and scale of the model were provided by acquiring additional data, by reevaluating existing data using current technology and concepts, and by refining earlier interpretations to reflect the current understanding of the regional groundwater flow system. Groundwater flow in the Death Valley region is composed of several interconnected, complex groundwater flow systems. Groundwater flow occurs in three subregions in relatively shallow and localized flow paths that are superimposed on deeper, regional flow paths. Regional groundwater flow is predominantly through a thick Paleozoic carbonate rock sequence affected by complex geologic structures from regional faulting and fracturing that can enhance or impede flow. Spring flow and ET are the dominant natural groundwater discharge processes. Groundwater also is withdrawn for agricultural, commercial, and domestic uses. Groundwater flow in the DVRFS was simulated using MODFLOW-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey 3D finitedifference modular groundwater flow modeling code that incorporates a nonlinear least-squares regression technique to estimate aquifer parameters. The DVRFS model has 16 layers of defined thickness, a finite-difference grid consisting of 194 rows and 160 columns, and uniform cells 1,500 meters (m) on each side. Prepumping conditions (before 1913) were used as the initial conditions for the transient-state calibration. The model uses annual stress periods with discrete recharge and discharge components. Recharge occurs mostly from infiltration of precipitation and runoff on high mountain ranges and from a small amount of underflow from adjacent basins. Discharge occurs primarily through ET and spring discharge (both simulated as drains) and water withdrawal by pumping and, to a lesser amount, by underflow to adjacent basins simulated by constant-head boundaries. All parameter values estimated by the regression are reasonable and within the range of expected values. The simulated hydraulic heads of the final calibrated transient mode

Development of a global river-coastal coupling model and its application to flood simulation in Asian mega-delta regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikeuchi, Hiroaki; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Yamazaki, Dai; Muis, Sanne; Ward, Philip; Verlaan, Martin; Winsemius, Hessel; Kanae, Shinjiro

2017-04-01

The world's mega-delta regions and estuaries are susceptible to various water-related disasters, such as river flooding and storm surge. Moreover, simultaneous occurrence of them would be more devastating than a situation where they occur in isolation. Therefore, it is important to provide information about compound risks of fluvial and coastal floods at a large scale, both their statistical dependency as well as their combined resulting flooding in delta regions. Here we report on a first attempt to address this issue globally by developing a method to couple a global river model (CaMa-Flood) and a global tide and surge reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. A state-of-the-art global river routing model, CaMa-Flood, was modified to represent varying sea levels due to tides and storm surges as downstream boundary condition, and the GTSR dataset was post-processed to serve as inputs to the CaMa-Flood river routing simulation and a long-term simulation was performed to incorporate the temporal dependency between coastal tide and surge on the one hand, and discharge on the other. The coupled model was validated against observations, showing better simulation results of water levels in deltaic regions than simulation without GTSR. For example in the Ganges Delta, correlation coefficients were increased by 0.06, and root mean square errors were reduced by 0.22 m. Global coupling simulations revealed that storm surges affected river water levels in coastal regions worldwide, especially in low-lying flat areas with increases in water level larger than 0.5 m. By employing enhanced storm surge simulation with tropical storm tracks, we also applied the model to examine impacts of past hurricane and cyclone storm events on river flood inundation.

Future Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bøssing Christensen, Ole; Kjellström, Erik; Zorita, Eduardo; Sonnenborg, Torben; Meier, Markus; Grinsted, Aslak

2015-04-01

Regional climate models have been used extensively since the first assessment of climate change in the Baltic Sea region published in 2008, not the least for studies of Europe (and including the Baltic Sea catchment area). Therefore, conclusions regarding climate model results have a better foundation than was the case for the first BACC report of 2008. This presentation will report model results regarding future climate. What is the state of understanding about future human-driven climate change? We will cover regional models, statistical downscaling, hydrological modelling, ocean modelling and sea-level change as it is projected for the Baltic Sea region. Collections of regional model simulations from the ENSEMBLES project for example, financed through the European 5th Framework Programme and the World Climate Research Programme Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, have made it possible to obtain an increasingly robust estimation of model uncertainty. While the first Baltic Sea assessment mainly used four simulations from the European 5th Framework Programme PRUDENCE project, an ensemble of 13 transient regional simulations with twice the horizontal resolution reaching the end of the 21st century has been available from the ENSEMBLES project; therefore it has been possible to obtain more quantitative assessments of model uncertainty. The literature about future climate change in the Baltic Sea region is largely built upon the ENSEMBLES project. Also within statistical downscaling, a considerable number of papers have been published, encompassing now the application of non-linear statistical models, projected changes in extremes and correction of climate model biases. The uncertainty of hydrological change has received increasing attention since the previous Baltic Sea assessment. Several studies on the propagation of uncertainties originating in GCMs, RCMs, and emission scenarios are presented. The number of studies on uncertainties related to downscaling and impact models is relatively small, but more are emerging. A large number of coupled climate-environmental scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea have been performed within the BONUS+ projects (ECOSUPPORT, INFLOW, AMBER and Baltic-C (2009-2011)), using various combinations of output from GCMs, RCMs, hydrological models and scenarios for load and emission of nutrients as forcing for Baltic Sea models. Such a large ensemble of scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea has never before been produced and enables for the first time an estimation of uncertainties.

Northern African and Indian Precipitation at the end of the 21st Century: An Integrated Application of Regional and Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patricola, C. M.; Cook, K. H.

2008-12-01

As greenhouse warming continues there is growing concern about the future climate of both Africa, which is highlighted by the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) as exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, and India. Precipitation projections from the AOGCMs of the IPCC AR4 are relatively consistent over India, but not over northern Africa. Inconsistencies can be related to the model's inability to capture climate process correctly, deficiencies in physical parameterizations, different SST projections, or horizontal atmospheric resolution that is too coarse to realistically represent the tight gradients over West Africa and complex topography of East Africa and India. Treatment of the land surface in a model may also be an issue over West Africa and India where land-surface/atmosphere interactions are very important. Here a method for simulating future climate is developed and applied using a high-resolution regional model in conjunction with output from a suite of AOGCMs, drawing on the advantages of both the regional and global modeling approaches. Integration by the regional model allows for finer horizontal resolution and regionally appropriate selection of parameterizations and land-surface model. AOGCM output is used to provide SST projections and lateral boundary conditions to constrain the regional model. The control simulation corresponds to 1981-2000, and eight future simulations representing 2081-2100 are conducted, each constrained by a different AOGCM and forced by CO2 concentrations from the SRES A2 emissions scenario. After model spin-up, May through October remain for investigation. Analysis is focused on climate change parameters important for impacts on agriculture and water resource management, and is presented in a format compatible with the IPCC reports. Precipitation projections simulated by the regional model are quite consistent, with 75% or more ensemble members agreeing on the sign of the anomaly over vast regions of Africa and India. Over West Africa, where the regional model provides the greatest improvement over the AOGCMs in consistency of ensemble members, precipitation at the end of the century is generally projected to increase during May and decrease in June and July. Wetter conditions are simulated during August though October, with the exception of drying close to the Guinean Coast in August. In late summer, high rainfall rates are simulated more frequently in the future, indicating the possibility for increases in flooding events. The regional model's projections over India are in stark contrast to the AOGCM's, producing intense and generally widespread drying in August and September. The very promising method developed here is young and further potential developments are recognized, including the addition of ocean, vegetation, and dust models. Ensembles which employ other regional models, sets of parameterizations, and emissions scenarios should also be explored.

The impact of convection in the West African monsoon region on global weather forecasts - explicit vs. parameterised convection simulations using the ICON model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pante, Gregor; Knippertz, Peter

2017-04-01

The West African monsoon is the driving element of weather and climate during summer in the Sahel region. It interacts with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and the African easterly jet and African easterly waves. Poor representation of convection in numerical models, particularly its organisation on the mesoscale, can result in unrealistic forecasts of the monsoon dynamics. Arguably, the parameterisation of convection is one of the main deficiencies in models over this region. Overall, this has negative impacts on forecasts over West Africa itself but may also affect remote regions, as waves originating from convective heating are badly represented. Here we investigate those remote forecast impacts based on daily initialised 10-day forecasts for July 2016 using the ICON model. One set of simulations employs the default setup of the global model with a horizontal grid spacing of 13 km. It is compared with simulations using the 2-way nesting capability of ICON. A second model domain over West Africa (the nest) with 6.5 km grid spacing is sufficient to explicitly resolve MCSs in this region. In the 2-way nested simulations, the prognostic variables of the global model are influenced by the results of the nest through relaxation. The nest with explicit convection is able to reproduce single MCSs much more realistically compared to the stand-alone global simulation with parameterised convection. Explicit convection leads to cooler temperatures in the lower troposphere (below 500 hPa) over the northern Sahel due to stronger evaporational cooling. Overall, the feedback of dynamic variables from the nest to the global model shows clear positive effects when evaluating the output of the global domain of the 2-way nesting simulation and the output of the stand-alone global model with ERA-Interim re-analyses. Averaged over the 2-way nested region, bias and root mean squared error (RMSE) of temperature, geopotential, wind and relative humidity are significantly reduced in the lower troposphere. Outside Africa over the Atlantic or in Europe the effect of the 2-way nesting becomes visible after some days of simulation. The changes in error measures are not as clear as in the nesting region itself but still improvements for some variables at different altitudes are evident, most likely due to a better representation of African easterly waves and Rossby waves. This work shows the importance of the West African region for global weather forecasts and the potential of convective permitting modelling in this region to improve the forecasts even far away from Africa in the future.

Investigating NARCCAP Precipitation Extremes via Bivariate Extreme Value Theory (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, G. B.; Cooley, D. S.; Sain, S. R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

2013-12-01

We introduce methodology from statistical extreme value theory to examine the ability of reanalysis-drive regional climate models to simulate past daily precipitation extremes. Going beyond a comparison of summary statistics such as 20-year return values, we study whether the most extreme precipitation events produced by climate model simulations exhibit correspondence to the most extreme events seen in observational records. The extent of this correspondence is formulated via the statistical concept of tail dependence. We examine several case studies of extreme precipitation events simulated by the six models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) driven by NCEP reanalysis. It is found that the NARCCAP models generally reproduce daily winter precipitation extremes along the Pacific coast quite well; in contrast, simulation of past daily summer precipitation extremes in a central US region is poor. Some differences in the strength of extremal correspondence are seen in the central region between models which employ spectral nudging and those which do not. We demonstrate how these techniques may be used to draw a link between extreme precipitation events and large-scale atmospheric drivers, as well as to downscale extreme precipitation simulated by a future run of a regional climate model. Specifically, we examine potential future changes in the nature of extreme precipitation along the Pacific coast produced by the pineapple express (PE) phenomenon. A link between extreme precipitation events and a "PE Index" derived from North Pacific sea-surface pressure fields is found. This link is used to study PE-influenced extreme precipitation produced by a future-scenario climate model run.

Regional air-sea coupled model simulation for two types of extreme heat in North China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Donghuan; Zou, Liwei; Zhou, Tianjun

2018-03-01

Extreme heat (EH) over North China (NC) is affected by both large scale circulations and local topography, and could be categorized into foehn favorable and no-foehn types. In this study, the performance of a regional coupled model in simulating EH over NC was examined. The effects of regional air-sea coupling were also investigated by comparing the results with the corresponding atmosphere-alone regional model. On foehn favorable (no-foehn) EH days, a barotropic cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly is located to the northeast (northwest) of NC, while anomalous northwesterlies (southeasterlies) prevail over NC in the lower troposphere. In the uncoupled simulation, barotropic anticyclonic bias occurs over China on both foehn favorable and no-foehn EH days, and the northwesterlies in the lower troposphere on foehn favorable EH days are not obvious. These biases are significantly reduced in the regional coupled simulation, especially on foehn favorable EH days with wind anomalies skill scores improving from 0.38 to 0.47, 0.47 to 0.61 and 0.38 to 0.56 for horizontal winds at 250, 500 and 850 hPa, respectively. Compared with the uncoupled simulation, the reproduction of the longitudinal position of Northwest Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) and the spatial pattern of the low-level monsoon flow over East Asia are improved in the coupled simulation. Therefore, the anticyclonic bias over China is obviously reduced, and the proportion of EH days characterized by anticyclonic anomaly is more appropriate. The improvements in the regional coupled model indicate that it is a promising choice for the future projection of EH over NC.

Ground Motion Modeling in the Eastern Caucasus

DOE PAGES

Pitarka, Arben; Gok, Rengin; Yetirmishli, Gurban; ...

2016-05-13

In this paper, we analyzed the performance of a preliminary three-dimensional (3D) velocity model of the Eastern Caucasus covering most of the Azerbaijan. The model was developed in support to long-period ground motion simulations and seismic hazard assessment from regional earthquakes in Azerbaijan. The model’s performance was investigated by simulating ground motion from the damaging Mw 5.9, 2012 Zaqatala earthquake, which was well recorded throughout the region by broadband seismic instruments. In our simulations, we use a parallelized finite-difference method of fourth-order accuracy. The comparison between the simulated and recorded ground motion velocity in the modeled period range of 3–20more » s shows that in general, the 3D velocity model performs well. Areas in which the model needs improvements are located mainly in the central part of the Kura basin and in the Caspian Sea coastal areas. Comparisons of simulated ground motion using our 3D velocity model and corresponding 1D regional velocity model were used to locate areas with strong 3D wave propagation effects. In areas with complex underground structure, the 1D model fails to produce the observed ground motion amplitude and duration, and spatial extend of ground motion amplification caused by wave propagation effects.« less

Influence of ecohydrologic feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Walsum, P. E. V.; Supit, I.

2012-06-01

Hydrologic climate change modelling is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. To reduce this dependency, we extended the regional hydrologic modelling framework SIMGRO to host a two-way coupling between the soil moisture model MetaSWAP and the crop growth simulation model WOFOST, accounting for ecohydrologic feedbacks in terms of radiation fraction that reaches the soil, crop coefficient, interception fraction of rainfall, interception storage capacity, and root zone depth. Except for the last, these feedbacks are dependent on the leaf area index (LAI). The influence of regional groundwater on crop growth is included via a coupling to MODFLOW. Two versions of the MetaSWAP-WOFOST coupling were set up: one with exogenous vegetation parameters, the "static" model, and one with endogenous crop growth simulation, the "dynamic" model. Parameterization of the static and dynamic models ensured that for the current climate the simulated long-term averages of actual evapotranspiration are the same for both models. Simulations were made for two climate scenarios and two crops: grass and potato. In the dynamic model, higher temperatures in a warm year under the current climate resulted in accelerated crop development, and in the case of potato a shorter growing season, thus partly avoiding the late summer heat. The static model has a higher potential transpiration; depending on the available soil moisture, this translates to a higher actual transpiration. This difference between static and dynamic models is enlarged by climate change in combination with higher CO2 concentrations. Including the dynamic crop simulation gives for potato (and other annual arable land crops) systematically higher effects on the predicted recharge change due to climate change. Crop yields from soils with poor water retention capacities strongly depend on capillary rise if moisture supply from other sources is limited. Thus, including a crop simulation model in an integrated hydrologic simulation provides a valuable addition for hydrologic modelling as well as for crop modelling.

Evaluation of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with temperature extremes in the NARCCAP regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.; Waliser, Duane E.; Lee, Huikyo; Neelin, J. David; Lintner, Benjamin R.; McGinnis, Seth; Mearns, Linda O.; Kim, Jinwon

2015-12-01

Large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with temperature extremes are evaluated in a suite of regional climate model (RCM) simulations contributing to the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. LSMPs are characterized through composites of surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies concurrent with extreme temperature days. Six of the seventeen RCM simulations are driven by boundary conditions from reanalysis while the other eleven are driven by one of four global climate models (GCMs). Four illustrative case studies are analyzed in detail. Model fidelity in LSMP spatial representation is high for cold winter extremes near Chicago. Winter warm extremes are captured by most RCMs in northern California, with some notable exceptions. Model fidelity is lower for cool summer days near Houston and extreme summer heat events in the Ohio Valley. Physical interpretation of these patterns and identification of well-simulated cases, such as for Chicago, boosts confidence in the ability of these models to simulate days in the tails of the temperature distribution. Results appear consistent with the expectation that the ability of an RCM to reproduce a realistically shaped frequency distribution for temperature, especially at the tails, is related to its fidelity in simulating LMSPs. Each ensemble member is ranked for its ability to reproduce LSMPs associated with observed warm and cold extremes, identifying systematically high performing RCMs and the GCMs that provide superior boundary forcing. The methodology developed here provides a framework for identifying regions where further process-based evaluation would improve the understanding of simulation error and help guide future model improvement and downscaling efforts.

Regional climate simulations over South America: sensitivity to model physics and to the treatment of lateral boundary conditions using the MM5 model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solman, Silvina A.; Pessacg, Natalia L.

2012-01-01

In this study the capability of the MM5 model in simulating the main mode of intraseasonal variability during the warm season over South America is evaluated through a series of sensitivity experiments. Several 3-month simulations nested into ERA40 reanalysis were carried out using different cumulus schemes and planetary boundary layer schemes in an attempt to define the optimal combination of physical parameterizations for simulating alternating wet and dry conditions over La Plata Basin (LPB) and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone regions, respectively. The results were compared with different observational datasets and model evaluation was performed taking into account the spatial distribution of monthly precipitation and daily statistics of precipitation over the target regions. Though every experiment was able to capture the contrasting behavior of the precipitation during the simulated period, precipitation was largely underestimated particularly over the LPB region, mainly due to a misrepresentation in the moisture flux convergence. Experiments using grid nudging of the winds above the planetary boundary layer showed a better performance compared with those in which no constrains were imposed to the regional circulation within the model domain. Overall, no single experiment was found to perform the best over the entire domain and during the two contrasting months. The experiment that outperforms depends on the area of interest, being the simulation using the Grell (Kain-Fritsch) cumulus scheme in combination with the MRF planetary boundary layer scheme more adequate for subtropical (tropical) latitudes. The ensemble of the sensitivity experiments showed a better performance compared with any individual experiment.

Improved simulation of tropospheric ozone by a global-multi-regional two-way coupling model system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Y.; Lin, J.; Hu, L.; Chen, J.

2016-12-01

Small-scale nonlinear chemical and physical processes over pollution source regions affect the tropospheric ozone, but these processes are not captured by current global chemical transport models and chemistry-climate models that are limited by coarse horizontal resolutions. These models tend to contain large (and mostly positive) tropospheric O3 biases in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we use a recently built two-way coupling system of the GEOS-Chem CTM to simulate the regional and global tropospheric O3in 2009. The system couples the global model (at 2.5º long. x 2º lat.) and its three nested models (at 0.667º long. x 0.5º lat.) covering Asia, North America and Europe, respectively. Specifically, the nested models take lateral boundary conditions from the global model, better capture small-scale processes, and feed back to modify the global model simulation within the nested domains, with a subsequent effect on their LBCs. Compared to the global model alone, the two-way coupled system better simulates the tropospheric O3 both within and outside the nested domains, as found by evaluation against a suite of ground (1420 sites from WDCGG, GMD, EMEP, and AQS), aircraft (HIPPO and MOZAIC), and satellite measurements (two OMI products). The two-way coupled simulation enhances the correlation in day-to-day variation of afternoon mean surface O3 with the ground measurements from 0.53 to 0.68, and it reduces the mean model bias from 10.8 to 6.7 ppb. Regionally, the coupled system reduces the bias by 4.6 ppb over Europe, 3.9 ppb over North America, and 3.1 ppb over other regions. The two-way coupling brings O3vertical profiles much closer to the HIPPO (for remote areas) and MOZAIC (for polluted regions) data, reducing the tropospheric mean bias by 3-10 ppb at most MOZAIC sites and by 5.3 ppb for HIPPO profiles. The two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric column ozone by 3.0 DU (9.5%, annual mean), bringing them closer to the OMI data in all seasons. Additionally, the two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric mean hydroxyl radical by 5% with improved estimates of methyl chloroform and methane lifetimes. Simulation improvements are more significant in the Northern Hemisphere, and are mainly driven by improved representation of spatial inhomogeneity in chemistry/emissions.

A Regional Model for Malaria Vector Developmental Habitats Evaluated Using Explicit, Pond-Resolving Surface Hydrology Simulations.

PubMed

Asare, Ernest Ohene; Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Bomblies, Arne

2016-01-01

Dynamical malaria models can relate precipitation to the availability of vector breeding sites using simple models of surface hydrology. Here, a revised scheme is developed for the VECTRI malaria model, which is evaluated alongside the default scheme using a two year simulation by HYDREMATS, a 10 metre resolution, village-scale model that explicitly simulates individual ponds. Despite the simplicity of the two VECTRI surface hydrology parametrization schemes, they can reproduce the sub-seasonal evolution of fractional water coverage. Calibration of the model parameters is required to simulate the mean pond fraction correctly. The default VECTRI model tended to overestimate water fraction in periods subject to light rainfall events and underestimate it during periods of intense rainfall. This systematic error was improved in the revised scheme by including the a parametrization for surface run-off, such that light rainfall below the initial abstraction threshold does not contribute to ponds. After calibration of the pond model, the VECTRI model was able to simulate vector densities that compared well to the detailed agent based model contained in HYDREMATS without further parameter adjustment. Substituting local rain-gauge data with satellite-retrieved precipitation gave a reasonable approximation, raising the prospects for regional malaria simulations even in data sparse regions. However, further improvements could be made if a method can be derived to calibrate the key hydrology parameters of the pond model in each grid cell location, possibly also incorporating slope and soil texture.

A Regional Model for Malaria Vector Developmental Habitats Evaluated Using Explicit, Pond-Resolving Surface Hydrology Simulations

PubMed Central

Asare, Ernest Ohene; Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Bomblies, Arne

2016-01-01

Dynamical malaria models can relate precipitation to the availability of vector breeding sites using simple models of surface hydrology. Here, a revised scheme is developed for the VECTRI malaria model, which is evaluated alongside the default scheme using a two year simulation by HYDREMATS, a 10 metre resolution, village-scale model that explicitly simulates individual ponds. Despite the simplicity of the two VECTRI surface hydrology parametrization schemes, they can reproduce the sub-seasonal evolution of fractional water coverage. Calibration of the model parameters is required to simulate the mean pond fraction correctly. The default VECTRI model tended to overestimate water fraction in periods subject to light rainfall events and underestimate it during periods of intense rainfall. This systematic error was improved in the revised scheme by including the a parametrization for surface run-off, such that light rainfall below the initial abstraction threshold does not contribute to ponds. After calibration of the pond model, the VECTRI model was able to simulate vector densities that compared well to the detailed agent based model contained in HYDREMATS without further parameter adjustment. Substituting local rain-gauge data with satellite-retrieved precipitation gave a reasonable approximation, raising the prospects for regional malaria simulations even in data sparse regions. However, further improvements could be made if a method can be derived to calibrate the key hydrology parameters of the pond model in each grid cell location, possibly also incorporating slope and soil texture. PMID:27003834

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sakaguchi, Koichi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Zhao, Chun

This study presents a diagnosis of a multi-resolution approach using the Model for Prediction Across Scales - Atmosphere (MPAS-A) for simulating regional climate. Four AMIP experiments are conducted for 1999-2009. In the first two experiments, MPAS-A is configured using global quasi-uniform grids at 120 km and 30 km grid spacing. In the other two experiments, MPAS-A is configured using variable-resolution (VR) mesh with local refinement at 30 km over North America and South America embedded inside a quasi-uniform domain at 120 km elsewhere. Precipitation and related fields in the four simulations are examined to determine how well the VR simulationsmore » reproduce the features simulated by the globally high-resolution model in the refined domain. In previous analyses of idealized aqua-planet simulations, the characteristics of the global high-resolution simulation in moist processes only developed near the boundary of the refined region. In contrast, the AMIP simulations with VR grids are able to reproduce the high-resolution characteristics across the refined domain, particularly in South America. This indicates the importance of finely resolved lower-boundary forcing such as topography and surface heterogeneity for the regional climate, and demonstrates the ability of the MPAS-A VR to replicate the large-scale moisture transport as simulated in the quasi-uniform high-resolution model. Outside of the refined domain, some upscale effects are detected through large-scale circulation but the overall climatic signals are not significant at regional scales. Our results provide support for the multi-resolution approach as a computationally efficient and physically consistent method for modeling regional climate.« less

Implementation of local grid refinement (LGR) for the Lake Michigan Basin regional groundwater-flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoard, C.J.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey is evaluating water availability and use within the Great Lakes Basin. This is a pilot effort to develop new techniques and methods to aid in the assessment of water availability. As part of the pilot program, a regional groundwater-flow model for the Lake Michigan Basin was developed using SEAWAT-2000. The regional model was used as a framework for assessing local-scale water availability through grid-refinement techniques. Two grid-refinement techniques, telescopic mesh refinement and local grid refinement, were used to illustrate the capability of the regional model to evaluate local-scale problems. An intermediate model was developed in central Michigan spanning an area of 454 square miles (mi2) using telescopic mesh refinement. Within the intermediate model, a smaller local model covering an area of 21.7 mi2 was developed and simulated using local grid refinement. Recharge was distributed in space and time using a daily output from a modified Thornthwaite-Mather soil-water-balance method. The soil-water-balance method derived recharge estimates from temperature and precipitation data output from an atmosphere-ocean coupled general-circulation model. The particular atmosphere-ocean coupled general-circulation model used, simulated climate change caused by high global greenhouse-gas emissions to the atmosphere. The surface-water network simulated in the regional model was refined and simulated using a streamflow-routing package for MODFLOW. The refined models were used to demonstrate streamflow depletion and potential climate change using five scenarios. The streamflow-depletion scenarios include (1) natural conditions (no pumping), (2) a pumping well near a stream; the well is screened in surficial glacial deposits, (3) a pumping well near a stream; the well is screened in deeper glacial deposits, and (4) a pumping well near a stream; the well is open to a deep bedrock aquifer. Results indicated that a range of 59 to 50 percent of the water pumped originated from the stream for the shallow glacial and deep bedrock pumping scenarios, respectively. The difference in streamflow reduction between the shallow and deep pumping scenarios was compensated for in the deep well by deriving more water from regional sources. The climate-change scenario only simulated natural conditions from 1991-2044, so there was no pumping stress simulated. Streamflows were calculated for the simulated period and indicated that recharge over the period generally increased from the start of the simulation until approximately 2017, and decreased from then to the end of the simulation. Streamflow was highly correlated with recharge so that the lowest streamflows occurred in the later stress periods of the model when recharge was lowest.

Mid-Western US heavy summer-precipitation in regional and global climate models: the impact on model skill and consensus through an analogue lens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Xiang; Schlosser, C. Adam

2018-04-01

Regional climate models (RCMs) can simulate heavy precipitation more accurately than general circulation models (GCMs) through more realistic representation of topography and mesoscale processes. Analogue methods of downscaling, which identify the large-scale atmospheric conditions associated with heavy precipitation, can also produce more accurate and precise heavy precipitation frequency in GCMs than the simulated precipitation. In this study, we examine the performances of the analogue method versus direct simulation, when applied to RCM and GCM simulations, in detecting present-day and future changes in summer (JJA) heavy precipitation over the Midwestern United States. We find analogue methods are comparable to MERRA-2 and its bias-corrected precipitation in characterizing the occurrence and interannual variations of observed heavy precipitation events, all significantly improving upon MERRA precipitation. For the late twentieth-century heavy precipitation frequency, RCM precipitation improves upon the corresponding driving GCM with greater accuracy yet comparable inter-model discrepancies, while both RCM- and GCM-based analogue results outperform their model-simulated precipitation counterparts in terms of accuracy and model consensus. For the projected trends in heavy precipitation frequency through the mid twenty-first century, analogue method also manifests its superiority to direct simulation with reduced intermodel disparities, while the RCM-based analogue and simulated precipitation do not demonstrate a salient improvement (in model consensus) over the GCM-based assessment. However, a number of caveats preclude any overall judgement, and further work—over any region of interest—should include a larger sample of GCMs and RCMs as well as ensemble simulations to comprehensively account for internal variability.

The accuracy of climate models' simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of grid scale correction factors

DOE PAGES

Winterhalter, Wade E.

2011-09-01

Global climate change is expected to impact biological populations through a variety of mechanisms including increases in the length of their growing season. Climate models are useful tools for predicting how season length might change in the future. However, the accuracy of these models tends to be rather low at regional geographic scales. Here, I determined the ability of several atmosphere and ocean general circulating models (AOGCMs) to accurately simulate historical season lengths for a temperate ectotherm across the continental United States. I also evaluated the effectiveness of regional-scale correction factors to improve the accuracy of these models. I foundmore » that both the accuracy of simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of the correction factors to improve the model's accuracy varied geographically and across models. These results suggest that regional specific correction factors do not always adequately remove potential discrepancies between simulated and historically observed environmental parameters. As such, an explicit evaluation of the correction factors' effectiveness should be included in future studies of global climate change's impact on biological populations.« less

Modelling irrigated maize with a combination of coupled-model simulation and uncertainty analysis, in the northwest of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Kinzelbach, W.; Zhou, J.; Cheng, G. D.; Li, X.

2012-05-01

The hydrologic model HYDRUS-1-D and the crop growth model WOFOST are coupled to efficiently manage water resources in agriculture and improve the prediction of crop production. The results of the coupled model are validated by experimental studies of irrigated-maize done in the middle reaches of northwest China's Heihe River, a semi-arid to arid region. Good agreement is achieved between the simulated evapotranspiration, soil moisture and crop production and their respective field measurements made under current maize irrigation and fertilization. Based on the calibrated model, the scenario analysis reveals that the most optimal amount of irrigation is 500-600 mm in this region. However, for regions without detailed observation, the results of the numerical simulation can be unreliable for irrigation decision making owing to the shortage of calibrated model boundary conditions and parameters. So, we develop a method of combining model ensemble simulations and uncertainty/sensitivity analysis to speculate the probability of crop production. In our studies, the uncertainty analysis is used to reveal the risk of facing a loss of crop production as irrigation decreases. The global sensitivity analysis is used to test the coupled model and further quantitatively analyse the impact of the uncertainty of coupled model parameters and environmental scenarios on crop production. This method can be used for estimation in regions with no or reduced data availability.

Assessment of the performance of CORDEX-SA experiments in simulating seasonal mean temperature over the Himalayan region for the present climate: Part I

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nengker, T.; Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.

2018-04-01

The ability of an ensemble of five regional climate models (hereafter RCMs) under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments-South Asia (hereafter, CORDEX-SA) in simulating the key features of present day near surface mean air temperature (Tmean) climatology (1970-2005) over the Himalayan region is studied. The purpose of this paper is to understand the consistency in the performance of models across the ensemble, space and seasons. For this a number of statistical measures like trend, correlation, variance, probability distribution function etc. are applied to evaluate the performance of models against observation and simultaneously the underlying uncertainties between them for four different seasons. The most evident finding from the study is the presence of a large cold bias (-6 to -8 °C) which is systematically seen across all the models and across space and time over the Himalayan region. However, these RCMs with its fine resolution perform extremely well in capturing the spatial distribution of the temperature features as indicated by a consistently high spatial correlation (greater than 0.9) with the observation in all seasons. In spite of underestimation in simulated temperature and general intensification of cold bias with increasing elevation the models show a greater rate of warming than the observation throughout entire altitudinal stretch of study region. During winter, the simulated rate of warming gets even higher at high altitudes. Moreover, a seasonal response of model performance and its spatial variability to elevation is found.

Impact of high resolution land surface initialization in Indian summer monsoon simulation using a regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unnikrishnan, C. K.; Rajeevan, M.; Rao, S. Vijaya Bhaskara

2016-06-01

The direct impact of high resolution land surface initialization on the forecast bias in a regional climate model in recent years over Indian summer monsoon region is investigated. Two sets of regional climate model simulations are performed, one with a coarse resolution land surface initial conditions and second one used a high resolution land surface data for initial condition. The results show that all monsoon years respond differently to the high resolution land surface initialization. The drought monsoon year 2009 and extended break periods were more sensitive to the high resolution land surface initialization. These results suggest that the drought monsoon year predictions can be improved with high resolution land surface initialization. Result also shows that there are differences in the response to the land surface initialization within the monsoon season. Case studies of heat wave and a monsoon depression simulation show that, the model biases were also improved with high resolution land surface initialization. These results show the need for a better land surface initialization strategy in high resolution regional models for monsoon forecasting.

Reliability of the North America CORDEX and NARCCAP simulations in the context of uncertainty in regional climate change projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karmalkar, A.

2017-12-01

Ensembles of dynamically downscaled climate change simulations are routinely used to capture uncertainty in projections at regional scales. I assess the reliability of two such ensembles for North America - NARCCAP and NA-CORDEX - by investigating the impact of model selection on representing uncertainty in regional projections, and the ability of the regional climate models (RCMs) to provide reliable information. These aspects - discussed for the six regions used in the US National Climate Assessment - provide an important perspective on the interpretation of downscaled results. I show that selecting general circulation models for downscaling based on their equilibrium climate sensitivities is a reasonable choice, but the six models chosen for NA-CORDEX do a poor job at representing uncertainty in winter temperature and precipitation projections in many parts of the eastern US, which lead to overconfident projections. The RCM performance is highly variable across models, regions, and seasons and the ability of the RCMs to provide improved seasonal mean performance relative to their parent GCMs seems limited in both RCM ensembles. Additionally, the ability of the RCMs to simulate historical climates is not strongly related to their ability to simulate climate change across the ensemble. This finding suggests limited use of models' historical performance to constrain their projections. Given these challenges in dynamical downscaling, the RCM results should not be used in isolation. Information on how well the RCM ensembles represent known uncertainties in regional climate change projections discussed here needs to be communicated clearly to inform maagement decisions.

Research on numerical simulation technology about regional important pollutant diffusion of haze

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Boying; Ma, Yunfeng; Li, Qiangqiang; Wang, Qi; Hu, Qiongqiong; Bian, Yushan

2018-02-01

In order to analyze the formation of haze in Shenyang and the factors that affect the diffusion of pollutants, the simulation experiment adopted in this paper is based on the numerical model of WRF/CALPUFF coupling. Simulation experiment was conducted to select PM10 of Shenyang City in the period from March 1 to 8, and the PM10 in the regional important haze was simulated. The survey was conducted with more than 120 enterprises section the point of the emission source of this experiment. The contrastive data were analyzed with 11 air quality monitoring points, and the simulation results were compared. Analyze the contribution rate of each typical enterprise to the air quality, verify the correctness of the simulation results, and then use the model to establish the prediction model.

VIC-CropSyst-v2: A regional-scale modeling platform to simulate the nexus of climate, hydrology, cropping systems, and human decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Keyvan; Stöckle, Claudio; Chinnayakanahalli, Kiran; Nelson, Roger; Liu, Mingliang; Rajagopalan, Kirti; Barik, Muhammad; Adam, Jennifer C.

2017-08-01

Food supply is affected by a complex nexus of land, atmosphere, and human processes, including short- and long-term stressors (e.g., drought and climate change, respectively). A simulation platform that captures these complex elements can be used to inform policy and best management practices to promote sustainable agriculture. We have developed a tightly coupled framework using the macroscale variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and the CropSyst agricultural model. A mechanistic irrigation module was also developed for inclusion in this framework. Because VIC-CropSyst combines two widely used and mechanistic models (for crop phenology, growth, management, and macroscale hydrology), it can provide realistic and hydrologically consistent simulations of water availability, crop water requirements for irrigation, and agricultural productivity for both irrigated and dryland systems. This allows VIC-CropSyst to provide managers and decision makers with reliable information on regional water stresses and their impacts on food production. Additionally, VIC-CropSyst is being used in conjunction with socioeconomic models, river system models, and atmospheric models to simulate feedback processes between regional water availability, agricultural water management decisions, and land-atmosphere interactions. The performance of VIC-CropSyst was evaluated on both regional (over the US Pacific Northwest) and point scales. Point-scale evaluation involved using two flux tower sites located in agricultural fields in the US (Nebraska and Illinois). The agreement between recorded and simulated evapotranspiration (ET), applied irrigation water, soil moisture, leaf area index (LAI), and yield indicated that, although the model is intended to work on regional scales, it also captures field-scale processes in agricultural areas.

Validation of the Regional Climate Model ALARO with different dynamical downscaling approaches and different horizontal resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berckmans, Julie; Hamdi, Rafiq; De Troch, Rozemien; Giot, Olivier

2015-04-01

At the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI), climate simulations are performed with the regional climate model (RCM) ALARO, a version of the ALADIN model with improved physical parameterizations. In order to obtain high-resolution information of the regional climate, lateral bounary conditions (LBC) are prescribed from the global climate model (GCM) ARPEGE. Dynamical downscaling is commonly done in a continuous long-term simulation, with the initialisation of the model at the start and driven by the regularly updated LBCs of the GCM. Recently, more interest exists in the dynamical downscaling approach of frequent reinitializations of the climate simulations. For these experiments, the model is initialised daily and driven for 24 hours by the GCM. However, the surface is either initialised daily together with the atmosphere or free to evolve continuously. The surface scheme implemented in ALARO is SURFEX, which can be either run in coupled mode or in stand-alone mode. The regional climate is simulated on different domains, on a 20km horizontal resolution over Western-Europe and a 4km horizontal resolution over Belgium. Besides, SURFEX allows to perform a stand-alone or offline simulation on 1km horizontal resolution over Belgium. This research is in the framework of the project MASC: "Modelling and Assessing Surface Change Impacts on Belgian and Western European Climate", a 4-year project funded by the Belgian Federal Government. The overall aim of the project is to study the feedbacks between climate changes and land surface changes in order to improve regional climate model projections at the decennial scale over Belgium and Western Europe and thus to provide better climate projections and climate change evaluation tools to policy makers, stakeholders and the scientific community.

Assessment of Land Surface Models in a High-Resolution Atmospheric Model during Indian Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attada, Raju; Kumar, Prashant; Dasari, Hari Prasad

2018-04-01

Assessment of the land surface models (LSMs) on monsoon studies over the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region is essential. In this study, we evaluate the skill of LSMs at 10 km spatial resolution in simulating the 2010 monsoon season. The thermal diffusion scheme (TDS), rapid update cycle (RUC), and Noah and Noah with multi-parameterization (Noah-MP) LSMs are chosen based on nature of complexity, that is, from simple slab model to multi-parameterization options coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Model results are compared with the available in situ observations and reanalysis fields. The sensitivity of monsoon elements, surface characteristics, and vertical structures to different LSMs is discussed. Our results reveal that the monsoon features are reproduced by WRF model with all LSMs, but with some regional discrepancies. The model simulations with selected LSMs are able to reproduce the broad rainfall patterns, orography-induced rainfall over the Himalayan region, and dry zone over the southern tip of India. The unrealistic precipitation pattern over the equatorial western Indian Ocean is simulated by WRF-LSM-based experiments. The spatial and temporal distributions of top 2-m soil characteristics (soil temperature and soil moisture) are well represented in RUC and Noah-MP LSM-based experiments during the ISM. Results show that the WRF simulations with RUC, Noah, and Noah-MP LSM-based experiments significantly improved the skill of 2-m temperature and moisture compared to TDS (chosen as a base) LSM-based experiments. Furthermore, the simulations with Noah, RUC, and Noah-MP LSMs exhibit minimum error in thermodynamics fields. In case of surface wind speed, TDS LSM performed better compared to other LSM experiments. A significant improvement is noticeable in simulating rainfall by WRF model with Noah, RUC, and Noah-MP LSMs over TDS LSM. Thus, this study emphasis the importance of choosing/improving LSMs for simulating the ISM phenomena in a regional model.

Detection and Attribution of Regional Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bala, G; Mirin, A

2007-01-19

We developed a high resolution global coupled modeling capability to perform breakthrough studies of the regional climate change. The atmospheric component in our simulation uses a 1{sup o} latitude x 1.25{sup o} longitude grid which is the finest resolution ever used for the NCAR coupled climate model CCSM3. Substantial testing and slight retuning was required to get an acceptable control simulation. The major accomplishment is the validation of this new high resolution configuration of CCSM3. There are major improvements in our simulation of the surface wind stress and sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic. Surface wind stress and oceanmore » circulation in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are also improved. Our results demonstrate that the FV version of the CCSM coupled model is a state of the art climate model whose simulation capabilities are in the class of those used for IPCC assessments. We have also provided 1000 years of model data to Scripps Institution of Oceanography to estimate the natural variability of stream flow in California. In the future, our global model simulations will provide boundary data to high-resolution mesoscale model that will be used at LLNL. The mesoscale model would dynamically downscale the GCM climate to regional scale on climate time scales.« less

Molecular dynamics simulation of propagating cracks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mullins, M.

1982-01-01

Steady state crack propagation is investigated numerically using a model consisting of 236 free atoms in two (010) planes of bcc alpha iron. The continuum region is modeled using the finite element method with 175 nodes and 288 elements. The model shows clear (010) plane fracture to the edge of the discrete region at moderate loads. Analysis of the results obtained indicates that models of this type can provide realistic simulation of steady state crack propagation.

Influence of feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Walsum, P. E. V.

2011-11-01

Climate change impact modelling of hydrologic responses is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. Reducing this dependency was one of the goals of extending the regional hydrologic modelling system SIMGRO with a two-way coupling to the crop growth simulation model WOFOST. The coupling includes feedbacks to the hydrologic model in terms of the root zone depth, soil cover, leaf area index, interception storage capacity, crop height and crop factor. For investigating whether such feedbacks lead to significantly different simulation results, two versions of the model coupling were set up for a test region: one with exogenous vegetation parameters, the "static" model, and one with endogenous simulation of the crop growth, the "dynamic" model WOFOST. The used parameterization methods of the static/dynamic vegetation models ensure that for the current climate the simulated long-term average of the actual evapotranspiration is the same for both models. Simulations were made for two climate scenarios. Owing to the higher temperatures in combination with a higher CO2-concentration of the atmosphere, a forward time shift of the crop development is simulated in the dynamic model; the used arable land crop, potatoes, also shows a shortening of the growing season. For this crop, a significant reduction of the potential transpiration is simulated compared to the static model, in the example by 15% in a warm, dry year. In consequence, the simulated crop water stress (the unit minus the relative transpiration) is lower when the dynamic model is used; also the simulated increase of crop water stress due to climate change is lower; in the example, the simulated increase is 15 percentage points less (of 55) than when a static model is used. The static/dynamic models also simulate different absolute values of the transpiration. The difference is most pronounced for potatoes at locations with ample moisture supply; this supply can either come from storage release of a good soil or from capillary rise. With good supply of moisture, the dynamic model simulates up to 10% less actual evapotranspiration than the static one in the example. This can lead to cases where the dynamic model predicts a slight increase of the recharge in a climate scenario, where the static model predicts a decrease. The use of a dynamic model also affects the simulated demand for surface water from external sources; especially the timing is affected. The proposed modelling approach uses postulated relationships that require validation with controlled field trials. In the Netherlands there is a lack of experimental facilities for performing such validations.

A Reduced Form Model for Ozone Based on Two Decades of CMAQ Simulations for the Continental United States

EPA Science Inventory

A Reduced Form Model (RFM) is a mathematical relationship between the inputs and outputs of an air quality model, permitting estimation of additional modeling without costly new regional-scale simulations. A 21-year Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) simulation for the con...

"The Effect of Alternative Representations of Lake Temperatures and Ice on WRF Regional Climate Simulations"

EPA Science Inventory

Lakes can play a significant role in regional climate, modulating inland extremes in temperature and enhancing precipitation. Representing these effects becomes more important as regional climate modeling (RCM) efforts focus on simulating smaller scales. When using the Weathe...

Thermosolutal convection and macrosegregation in dendritic alloys

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poirier, David R.; Heinrich, J. C.

1993-01-01

A mathematical model of solidification, that simulates the formation of channel segregates or freckles, is presented. The model simulates the entire solidification process, starting with the initial melt to the solidified cast, and the resulting segregation is predicted. Emphasis is given to the initial transient, when the dendritic zone begins to develop and the conditions for the possible nucleation of channels are established. The mechanisms that lead to the creation and eventual growth or termination of channels are explained in detail and illustrated by several numerical examples. A finite element model is used for the simulations. It uses a single system of equations to deal with the all-liquid region, the dendritic region, and the all-solid region. The dendritic region is treated as an anisotropic porous medium. The algorithm uses the bilinear isoparametric element, with a penalty function approximation and a Petrov-Galerkin formulation. The major task was to develop the solidification model. In addition, other tasks that were performed in conjunction with the modeling of dendritic solidification are briefly described.

Trans-Pacific transport and evolution of aerosols: evaluation of quasi-global WRF-Chem simulation with multiple observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zhiyuan; Zhao, Chun; Huang, Jianping; Leung, L. Ruby; Qian, Yun; Yu, Hongbin; Huang, Lei; Kalashnikova, Olga V.

2016-05-01

A fully coupled meteorology-chemistry model (WRF-Chem, the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry) has been configured to conduct quasi-global simulation for 5 years (2010-2014) and evaluated with multiple observation data sets for the first time. The evaluation focuses on the simulation over the trans-Pacific transport region using various reanalysis and observational data sets for meteorological fields and aerosol properties. The simulation generally captures the overall spatial and seasonal variability of satellite retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) and absorbing AOD (AAOD) over the Pacific that is determined by the outflow of pollutants and dust and the emissions of marine aerosols. The assessment of simulated extinction Ångström exponent (EAE) indicates that the model generally reproduces the variability of aerosol size distributions as seen by satellites. In addition, the vertical profile of aerosol extinction and its seasonality over the Pacific are also well simulated. The difference between the simulation and satellite retrievals can be mainly attributed to model biases in estimating marine aerosol emissions as well as the satellite sampling and retrieval uncertainties. Compared with the surface measurements over the western USA, the model reasonably simulates the observed magnitude and seasonality of dust, sulfate, and nitrate surface concentrations, but significantly underestimates the peak surface concentrations of carbonaceous aerosol likely due to model biases in the spatial and temporal variability of biomass burning emissions and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production. A sensitivity simulation shows that the trans-Pacific transported dust, sulfate, and nitrate can make significant contribution to surface concentrations over the rural areas of the western USA, while the peaks of carbonaceous aerosol surface concentrations are dominated by the North American emissions. Both the retrievals and simulation show small interannual variability of aerosol characteristics for 2010-2014 averaged over three Pacific sub-regions. The evaluation in this study demonstrates that the WRF-Chem quasi-global simulation can be used for investigating trans-Pacific transport of aerosols and providing reasonable inflow chemical boundaries for the western USA, allowing one to further understand the impact of transported pollutants on the regional air quality and climate with high-resolution nested regional modeling.

Comparison of thunderstorm simulations from WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW models over East Indian Region.

PubMed

Litta, A J; Mary Ididcula, Sumam; Mohanty, U C; Kiran Prasad, S

2012-01-01

The thunderstorms are typical mesoscale systems dominated by intense convection. Mesoscale models are essential for the accurate prediction of such high-impact weather events. In the present study, an attempt has been made to compare the simulated results of three thunderstorm events using NMM and ARW model core of WRF system and validated the model results with observations. Both models performed well in capturing stability indices which are indicators of severe convective activity. Comparison of model-simulated radar reflectivity imageries with observations revealed that NMM model has simulated well the propagation of the squall line, while the squall line movement was slow in ARW. From the model-simulated spatial plots of cloud top temperature, we can see that NMM model has better captured the genesis, intensification, and propagation of thunder squall than ARW model. The statistical analysis of rainfall indicates the better performance of NMM than ARW. Comparison of model-simulated thunderstorm affected parameters with that of the observed showed that NMM has performed better than ARW in capturing the sharp rise in humidity and drop in temperature. This suggests that NMM model has the potential to provide unique and valuable information for severe thunderstorm forecasters over east Indian region.

Simulation of ground-water flow in the Vevay Township area, Ingham County, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luukkonen, Carol L.; Simard, Andreanne

2004-01-01

Ground water is the primary source of water for domestic, public-supply, and industrial use within the Tri-County region that includes Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham Counties in Michigan. Because of the importance of this ground-water resource, numerous communities, including the city of Mason in Ingham County, have begun local Wellhead Protection Programs. In these programs, communities protect their groundwater resource by identifying the areas that contribute water to production wells and potential sources of contamination, and by developing methods to manage and minimize threats to the water supply. In addition, some communities in Michigan are concerned about water availability, particularly in areas experiencing water-level declines in the vicinity of quarry dewatering operations. In areas where Wellhead Protection Programs are implemented and there are potential threats to the water supply, residents and communities need adequate information to protect the water supply.In 1996, a regional ground-water-flow model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to simulate ground-water flow in Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham Counties. This model was developed primarily to simulate the bedrock ground-waterflow system; ground-water flow in the unconsolidated glacial sediments was simulated to support analysis of flow in the underlying bedrock Saginaw aquifer. Since its development in 1996, regional model simulations have been conducted to address protection concerns and water availability questions of local water-resources managers. As a result of these continuing model simulations, additional hydrogeologic data have been acquired in the Tri-County region that has improved the characterization of the simulated ground-water-flow system and improved the model calibration. A major benefit of these updates and refinements is that the regional Tri-County model continues to be a useful tool that improves the understanding of the ground-water-flow system in the Tri-County region, provides local water-resources managers with a means to answer ground-water protection and availability questions, and serves as an example that can be applied in other areas of the state.A refined version of the 1996 Tri-County regional ground-water-flow model, developed in 1997, was modified with local hydrogeologic information in the Vevay Township area in Michigan. This model, updated in 2003 for this study, was used to simulate ground-water flow to address groundwater protection and availability questions in Vevay Township. The 2003 model included refinement of glacial and bedrock hydraulic characteristics, better representation of the degree of connection between the glacial deposits and the underlying Saginaw aquifer, and refinement of the model cell size.The 2003 model was used to simulate regional groundwater flow, to delineate areas contributing recharge and zones of contribution to production wells in the city of Mason, and to simulate the effects of present and possible future withdrawals. The areal extent of the 10- and 40-year areas contributing recharge and the zones of contribution for the city of Mason's production wells encompass about 2.3 and 6.2 square miles, respectively. Simulation results, where withdrawals for quarry operations were represented by one well pumping at 1.6 million gallons per day, indicate that water levels would decline slightly over 1 foot approximately 2 miles from the quarry in the glacial deposits and in the Saginaw aquifer. With a reduction of the local riverbed conductance or removal of local river model cells representing Mud Creek, water-level declines would extend further west of Mud Creek and further to the north, east, and south of the simulated quarry. Simulation results indicate that water withdrawn for quarry dewatering operations would decrease ground-water recharge to nearby Mud Creek, would increase ground-water discharge from Mud Creek, and that local water levels would be lowered as a result.

Coupled Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport/Weather Forecast and Research/Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model. Part II; Simulations of Tower-Based and Airborne CO2 Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eluszkiewicz, Janusz; Nehrkorn, Thomas; Wofsy, Steven C.; Matross, Daniel; Gerbig, Christoph; Lin, John C.; Freitas, Saulo; Longo, Marcos; Andrews, Arlyn E.; Peters, Wouter

2007-01-01

This paper evaluates simulations of atmospheric CO2 measured in 2004 at continental surface and airborne receptors, intended to test the capability to use data with high temporal and spatial resolution for analyses of carbon sources and sinks at regional and continental scales. The simulations were performed using the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model driven by the Weather Forecast and Research (WRF) model, and linked to surface fluxes from the satellite-driven Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM). The simulations provide detailed representations of hourly CO2 tower data and reproduce the shapes of airborne vertical profiles with high fidelity. WRF meteorology gives superior model performance compared with standard meteorological products, and the impact of including WRF convective mass fluxes in the STILT trajectory calculations is significant in individual cases. Important biases in the simulation are associated with the nighttime CO2 build-up and subsequent morning transition to convective conditions, and with errors in the advected lateral boundary condition. Comparison of STILT simulations driven by the WRF model against those driven by the Brazilian variant of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) shows that model-to-model differences are smaller than between an individual transport model and observations, pointing to systematic errors in the simulated transport. Future developments in the WRF model s data assimilation capabilities, basic research into the fundamental aspects of trajectory calculations, and intercomparison studies involving other transport models, are possible venues for reducing these errors. Overall, the STILT/WRF/VPRM offers a powerful tool for continental and regional scale carbon flux estimates.

Extending rule-based methods to model molecular geometry and 3D model resolution.

PubMed

Hoard, Brittany; Jacobson, Bruna; Manavi, Kasra; Tapia, Lydia

2016-08-01

Computational modeling is an important tool for the study of complex biochemical processes associated with cell signaling networks. However, it is challenging to simulate processes that involve hundreds of large molecules due to the high computational cost of such simulations. Rule-based modeling is a method that can be used to simulate these processes with reasonably low computational cost, but traditional rule-based modeling approaches do not include details of molecular geometry. The incorporation of geometry into biochemical models can more accurately capture details of these processes, and may lead to insights into how geometry affects the products that form. Furthermore, geometric rule-based modeling can be used to complement other computational methods that explicitly represent molecular geometry in order to quantify binding site accessibility and steric effects. We propose a novel implementation of rule-based modeling that encodes details of molecular geometry into the rules and binding rates. We demonstrate how rules are constructed according to the molecular curvature. We then perform a study of antigen-antibody aggregation using our proposed method. We simulate the binding of antibody complexes to binding regions of the shrimp allergen Pen a 1 using a previously developed 3D rigid-body Monte Carlo simulation, and we analyze the aggregate sizes. Then, using our novel approach, we optimize a rule-based model according to the geometry of the Pen a 1 molecule and the data from the Monte Carlo simulation. We use the distances between the binding regions of Pen a 1 to optimize the rules and binding rates. We perform this procedure for multiple conformations of Pen a 1 and analyze the impact of conformation and resolution on the optimal rule-based model. We find that the optimized rule-based models provide information about the average steric hindrance between binding regions and the probability that antibodies will bind to these regions. These optimized models quantify the variation in aggregate size that results from differences in molecular geometry and from model resolution.

WRF-Cordex simulations for Europe: mean and extreme precipitation for present and future climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardoso, Rita M.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Miranda, Pedro M. A.

2013-04-01

The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model, version 3.3.1, was used to perform the European domain Cordex simulations, at 50km resolution. A first simulation, forced by ERA-Interim (1989-2009), was carried out to evaluate the models performance to represent the mean and extreme precipitation in present European climate. This evaluation is based in the comparison of WRF results against the ECAD regular gridded dataset of daily precipitation. Results are comparable to recent studies with other models for the European region, at this resolution. For the same domain a control and a future scenario (RCP8.5) simulation was performed to assess the climate change impact on the mean and extreme precipitation. These regional simulations were forced by EC-EARTH model results, and, encompass the periods from 1960-2006 and 2006-2100, respectively.

Improved simulation of tropospheric ozone by a global-multi-regional two-way coupling model system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Yingying; Lin, Jintai; Chen, Jinxuan; Hu, Lu

2016-02-01

Small-scale nonlinear chemical and physical processes over pollution source regions affect the tropospheric ozone (O3), but these processes are not captured by current global chemical transport models (CTMs) and chemistry-climate models that are limited by coarse horizontal resolutions (100-500 km, typically 200 km). These models tend to contain large (and mostly positive) tropospheric O3 biases in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we use the recently built two-way coupling system of the GEOS-Chem CTM to simulate the regional and global tropospheric O3 in 2009. The system couples the global model (at 2.5° long. × 2° lat.) and its three nested models (at 0.667° long. × 0.5° lat.) covering Asia, North America and Europe, respectively. Specifically, the nested models take lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from the global model, better capture small-scale processes and feed back to modify the global model simulation within the nested domains, with a subsequent effect on their LBCs. Compared to the global model alone, the two-way coupled system better simulates the tropospheric O3 both within and outside the nested domains, as found by evaluation against a suite of ground (1420 sites from the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG), the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory Global Monitoring Division (GMD), the Chemical Coordination Centre of European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP), and the United States Environmental Protection Agency Air Quality System (AQS)), aircraft (the High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) and Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapor by Airbus In- Service Aircraft (MOZAIC)) and satellite measurements (two Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) products). The two-way coupled simulation enhances the correlation in day-to-day variation of afternoon mean surface O3 with the ground measurements from 0.53 to 0.68, and it reduces the mean model bias from 10.8 to 6.7 ppb. Regionally, the coupled system reduces the bias by 4.6 ppb over Europe, 3.9 ppb over North America and 3.1 ppb over other regions. The two-way coupling brings O3 vertical profiles much closer to the HIPPO (for remote areas) and MOZAIC (for polluted regions) data, reducing the tropospheric (0-9 km) mean bias by 3-10 ppb at most MOZAIC sites and by 5.3 ppb for HIPPO profiles. The two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric column ozone by 3.0 DU (9.5 %, annual mean), bringing them closer to the OMI data in all seasons. Additionally, the two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric mean hydroxyl radical by 5 % with improved estimates of methyl chloroform and methane lifetimes. Simulation improvements are more significant in the Northern Hemisphere, and are mainly driven by improved representation of spatial inhomogeneity in chemistry/emissions. Within the nested domains, the two-way coupled simulation reduces surface ozone biases relative to typical GEOS-Chem one-way nested simulations, due to much improved LBCs. The bias reduction is 1-7 times the bias reduction from the global to the one-way nested simulation. Improving model representations of small-scale processes is important for understanding the global and regional tropospheric chemistry.

A study of long-term trends in mineral dust aerosol distributions in Asia using a general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukai, Makiko; Nakajima, Teruyuki; Takemura, Toshihiko

2004-10-01

Dust events have been observed in Japan with high frequency since 2000. On the other hand, the frequency of dust storms is said to have decreased in the desert regions of China since about the middle of the 1970s. This study simulates dust storms and transportation of mineral dust aerosols in the east Asia region from 1981 to 2001 using an aerosol transport model, Spectral Radiation-Transport Model for Aerosol Species (SPRINTARS), implemented in the Center for Climate System Research/National Institute for Environmental Studies atmospheric global circulation model, in order to investigate the main factors that control a dust event and its long-term variation. The model was forced to simulate a real atmospheric condition by a nudging technique using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis data on wind velocities, temperature, specific humidity, soil wetness, and snow depth. From a comparison between the long-term change in the dust emission and model parameters, it is found that the wind speed near the surface level had a significant influence on the dust emission, and snow is also an important factor in the early spring dust emission. The simulated results suggested that dust emissions from northeast China have a great impact on dust mass concentration in downwind regions, such as the cities of northeastern China, Korea, and Japan. When the frequency of dust events was high in Japan, a low-pressure system tended to develop over the northeast China region that caused strong winds. From 2000 to 2001 the simulated dust emission flux decreased in the Taklimakan desert and the northwestern part of China, while it increased in the Gobi desert and the northeastern part of China. Consequently, dust particles seem to be transported more from the latter region by prevailing westerlies in the springtime to downwind areas as actually observed. In spite of the similarity, however, there is still a large disagreement between observed and simulated dust frequencies and concentrations. A more realistic land surface and uplift mechanism of dust particles should be modeled to improve the model simulation. Desertification of the northeastern China region may be another reason for this disagreement.

Climate impacts on palm oil yields in the Nigerian Niger Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okoro, Stanley U.; Schickhoff, Udo; Boehner, Juergen; Schneider, Uwe A.; Huth, Neil

2016-04-01

Palm oil production has increased in recent decades and is estimated to increase further. The optimal role of palm oil production, however, is controversial because of resource conflicts with alternative land uses. Local conditions and climate change affect resource competition and the desirability of palm oil production. Based on this, crop yield simulations using different climate model output under different climate scenarios could be important tool in addressing the problem of uncertainty quantification among different climate model outputs. Previous studies on this region have focused mostly on single experimental fields, not considering variations in Agro-Ecological Zones, climatic conditions, varieties and management practices and, in most cases not extending to various IPCC climate scenarios and were mostly based on single climate model output. Furthermore, the uncertainty quantification of the climate- impact model has rarely been investigated on this region. To this end we use the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to simulate the regional climate impact on oil palm yield over the Nigerian Niger Delta. We also examine whether the use of crop yield model output ensemble reduces the uncertainty rather than the use of climate model output ensemble. The results could serve as a baseline for policy makers in this region in understanding the interaction between potentials of energy crop production of the region as well as its food security and other negative feedbacks that could be associated with bioenergy from oil palm. Keywords: Climate Change, Climate impacts, Land use and Crop yields.

Change of ocean circulation in the East Asian Marginal Seas under different climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Min, Hong Sik; Kim, Cheol-Ho; Kim, Young Ho

2010-05-01

Global climate models do not properly resolve an ocean environment in the East Asian Marginal Seas (EAMS), which is mainly due to a poor representation of the topography in continental shelf region and a coarse spatial resolution. To examine a possible change of ocean environment under global warming in the EAMS, therefore we used North Pacific Regional Ocean Model. The regional model was forced by atmospheric conditions extracted from the simulation results of the global climate models for the 21st century projected by the IPCC SRES A1B scenario as well as the 20th century. The North Pacific Regional Ocean model simulated a detailed pattern of temperature change in the EAMS showing locally different rising or falling trend under the future climate condition, while the global climate models simulated a simple pattern like an overall increase. Changes of circulation pattern in the EAMS such as an intrusion of warm water into the Yellow Sea as well as the Kuroshio were also well resolved. Annual variations in volume transports through the Taiwan Strait and the Korea Strait under the future condition were simulated to be different from those under present condition. Relative ratio of volume transport through the Soya Strait to the Tsugaru Strait also responded to the climate condition.

Linking Global and Regional Models to Simulate U.S. Air Quality in the Year 2050

EPA Science Inventory

The potential impact of global climate change on future air quality in the United States is investigated with global and regional-scale models. Regional climate model scenarios are developed by dynamically downscaling the outputs from a global chemistry and climate model and are...

Using nudging to improve global-regional dynamic consistency in limited-area climate modeling: What should we nudge?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omrani, Hiba; Drobinski, Philippe; Dubos, Thomas

2015-03-01

Regional climate modelling sometimes requires that the regional model be nudged towards the large-scale driving data to avoid the development of inconsistencies between them. These inconsistencies are known to produce large surface temperature and rainfall artefacts. Therefore, it is essential to maintain the synoptic circulation within the simulation domain consistent with the synoptic circulation at the domain boundaries. Nudging techniques, initially developed for data assimilation purposes, are increasingly used in regional climate modeling and offer a workaround to this issue. In this context, several questions on the "optimal" use of nudging are still open. In this study we focus on a specific question which is: What variable should we nudge? in order to maintain the consistencies between the regional model and the driving fields as much as possible. For that, a "Big Brother Experiment", where a reference atmospheric state is known, is conducted using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model over the Euro-Mediterranean region. A set of 22 3-month simulations is performed with different sets of nudged variables and nudging options (no nudging, indiscriminate nudging, spectral nudging) for summer and winter. The results show that nudging clearly improves the model capacity to reproduce the reference fields. However the skill scores depend on the set of variables used to nudge the regional climate simulations. Nudging the tropospheric horizontal wind is by far the key variable to nudge to simulate correctly surface temperature and wind, and rainfall. To a lesser extent, nudging tropospheric temperature also contributes to significantly improve the simulations. Indeed, nudging tropospheric wind or temperature directly impacts the simulation of the tropospheric geopotential height and thus the synoptic scale atmospheric circulation. Nudging moisture improves the precipitation but the impact on the other fields (wind and temperature) is not significant. As an immediate consequence, nudging tropospheric wind, temperature and moisture in WRF gives by far the best results with respect to the Big-Brother simulation. However, we noticed that a residual bias of the geopotential height persists due to a negative surface pressure anomaly which suggests that surface pressure is the missing quantity to nudge. Nudging the geopotential has no discernible effect. Finally, it should be noted that the proposed strategy ensures a dynamical consistency between the driving field and the simulated small-scale field but it does not ensure the best "observed" fine scale field because of the possible impact of incorrect driving large-scale field.

Reliability of regional climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahrens, W.; Block, A.; Böhm, U.; Hauffe, D.; Keuler, K.; Kücken, M.; Nocke, Th.

2003-04-01

Quantification of uncertainty becomes more and more a key issue for assessing the trustability of future climate scenarios. In addition to the mean conditions, climate impact modelers focus in particular on extremes. Before generating such scenarios using e.g. dynamic regional climate models, a careful validation of present-day simulations should be performed to determine the range of errors for the quantities of interest under recent conditions as a raw estimate of their uncertainty in the future. Often, multiple aspects shall be covered together, and the required simulation accuracy depends on the user's demand. In our approach, a massive parallel regional climate model shall be used on the one hand to generate "long-term" high-resolution climate scenarios for several decades, and on the other hand to provide very high-resolution ensemble simulations of future dry spells or heavy rainfall events. To diagnosis the model's performance for present-day simulations, we have recently developed and tested a first version of a validation and visualization chain for this model. It is, however, applicable in a much more general sense and could be used as a common test bed for any regional climate model aiming at this type of simulations. Depending on the user's interest, integrated quality measures can be derived for near-surface parameters using multivariate techniques and multidimensional distance measures in a first step. At this point, advanced visualization techniques have been developed and included to allow for visual data mining and to qualitatively identify dominating aspects and regularities. Univariate techniques that are especially designed to assess climatic aspects in terms of statistical properties can then be used to quantitatively diagnose the error contributions of the individual used parameters. Finally, a comprehensive in-depth diagnosis tool allows to investigate, why the model produces the obtained near-surface results to answer the question if the model performs well from the modeler's point of view. Examples will be presented for results obtained using this approach for assessing the risk of potential total agricultural yield loss under drought conditions in Northeast Brazil and for evaluating simulation results for a 10-year period for Europe. To support multi-run simulations and result evaluation, the model will be embedded into an already existing simulation environment that provides further postprocessing tools for sensitivity studies, behavioral analysis and Monte-Carlo simulations, but also for ensemble scenario analysis in one of the next steps.

GCM Simulation of the Large-scale North American Monsoon Including Water Vapor Tracer Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Sud, Yogesh; Walker, Gregory K.

2002-01-01

In this study, we have applied GCM water vapor tracers (WVT) to simulate the North American water cycle. WVTs allow quantitative computation of the geographical source of water for precipitation that occurs anywhere in the model simulation. This can be used to isolate the impact that local surface evaporation has on precipitation, compared to advection and convection. A 15 year 1 deg, 1.25 deg. simulation has been performed with 11 global and 11 North American regional WVTs. Figure 1 shows the source regions of the North American WVTs. When water evaporates from one of these predefined regions, its mass is used as the source for a distinct prognostic variable in the model. This prognostic variable allows the water to be transported and removed (precipitated) from the system in an identical way that occurs to the prognostic specific humidity. Details of the model are outlined by Bosilovich and Schubert (2002) and Bosilovich (2002). Here, we present results pertaining to the onset of the simulated North American monsoon.

Cusps in the center of galaxies: a real conflict with observations or a numerical artefact of cosmological simulations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baushev, A. N.; del Valle, L.; Campusano, L. E.; Escala, A.; Muñoz, R. R.; Palma, G. A.

2017-05-01

Galaxy observations and N-body cosmological simulations produce conflicting dark matter halo density profiles for galaxy central regions. While simulations suggest a cuspy and universal density profile (UDP) of this region, the majority of observations favor variable profiles with a core in the center. In this paper, we investigate the convergency of standard N-body simulations, especially in the cusp region, following the approach proposed by [1]. We simulate the well known Hernquist model using the SPH code Gadget-3 and consider the full array of dynamical parameters of the particles. We find that, although the cuspy profile is stable, all integrals of motion characterizing individual particles suffer strong unphysical variations along the whole halo, revealing an effective interaction between the test bodies. This result casts doubts on the reliability of the velocity distribution function obtained in the simulations. Moreover, we find unphysical Fokker-Planck streams of particles in the cusp region. The same streams should appear in cosmological N-body simulations, being strong enough to change the shape of the cusp or even to create it. Our analysis, based on the Hernquist model and the standard SPH code, strongly suggests that the UDPs generally found by the cosmological N-body simulations may be a consequence of numerical effects. A much better understanding of the N-body simulation convergency is necessary before a `core-cusp problem' can properly be used to question the validity of the CDM model.

Cusps in the center of galaxies: a real conflict with observations or a numerical artefact of cosmological simulations?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baushev, A.N.; Valle, L. del; Campusano, L.E.

2017-05-01

Galaxy observations and N-body cosmological simulations produce conflicting dark matter halo density profiles for galaxy central regions. While simulations suggest a cuspy and universal density profile (UDP) of this region, the majority of observations favor variable profiles with a core in the center. In this paper, we investigate the convergency of standard N-body simulations, especially in the cusp region, following the approach proposed by [1]. We simulate the well known Hernquist model using the SPH code Gadget-3 and consider the full array of dynamical parameters of the particles. We find that, although the cuspy profile is stable, all integrals ofmore » motion characterizing individual particles suffer strong unphysical variations along the whole halo, revealing an effective interaction between the test bodies. This result casts doubts on the reliability of the velocity distribution function obtained in the simulations. Moreover, we find unphysical Fokker-Planck streams of particles in the cusp region. The same streams should appear in cosmological N-body simulations, being strong enough to change the shape of the cusp or even to create it. Our analysis, based on the Hernquist model and the standard SPH code, strongly suggests that the UDPs generally found by the cosmological N-body simulations may be a consequence of numerical effects. A much better understanding of the N-body simulation convergency is necessary before a 'core-cusp problem' can properly be used to question the validity of the CDM model.« less

Evaluating CMIP5 Simulations of Historical Continental Climate with Koeppen Bioclimatic Metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, T. J.; Bonfils, C.

2013-12-01

The classic Koeppen bioclimatic classification scheme associates generic vegetation types (e.g. grassland, tundra, broadleaf or evergreen forests, etc.) with regional climate zones defined by their annual cycles of continental temperature (T) and precipitation (P), considered together. The locations or areas of Koeppen vegetation types derived from observational data thus can provide concise metrical standards for simultaneously evaluating climate simulations of T and P in naturally defined regions. The CMIP5 models' collective ability to correctly represent two variables that are critically important for living organisms at regional scales is therefore central to this evaluation. For this study, 14 Koeppen vegetation types are derived from annual-cycle climatologies of T and P in some 3 dozen CMIP5 simulations of the 1980-1999 period. Metrics for evaluating the ability of the CMIP5 models to simulate the correct locations and areas of each vegetation type, as well as measures of overall model performance, also are developed. It is found that the CMIP5 models are generally most deficient in simulating: 1) climates of drier Koeppen zones (e.g. desert, savanna, grassland, steppe vegetation types) located in the southwestern U.S. and Mexico, eastern Europe, southern Africa, and central Australia; 2) climates of regions such as central Asia and western South America where topography plays a key role. Details of regional T or P biases in selected simulations that exemplify general model performance problems also will be presented. Acknowledgments: This work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science and was performed at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. Map of Koeppen vegetation types derived from observed T and P.

Adaptive Control of a Utility-Scale Wind Turbine Operating in Region 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frost, Susan A.; Balas, Mark J.; Wright, Alan D.

2009-01-01

Adaptive control techniques are well suited to nonlinear applications, such as wind turbines, which are difficult to accurately model and which have effects from poorly known operating environments. The turbulent and unpredictable conditions in which wind turbines operate create many challenges for their operation. In this paper, we design an adaptive collective pitch controller for a high-fidelity simulation of a utility scale, variable-speed horizontal axis wind turbine. The objective of the adaptive pitch controller in Region 3 is to regulate generator speed and reject step disturbances. The control objective is accomplished by collectively pitching the turbine blades. We use an extension of the Direct Model Reference Adaptive Control (DMRAC) approach to track a reference point and to reject persistent disturbances. The turbine simulation models the Controls Advanced Research Turbine (CART) of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado. The CART is a utility-scale wind turbine which has a well-developed and extensively verified simulator. The adaptive collective pitch controller for Region 3 was compared in simulations with a bas celliansesical Proportional Integrator (PI) collective pitch controller. In the simulations, the adaptive pitch controller showed improved speed regulation in Region 3 when compared with the baseline PI pitch controller and it demonstrated robustness to modeling errors.

An assessment of precipitation and surface air temperature over China by regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xueyuan; Tang, Jianping; Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu

2016-12-01

An analysis of a 20-year summer time simulation of present-day climate (1989-2008) over China using four regional climate models coupled with different land surface models is carried out. The climatic means, interannual variability, linear trends, and extremes are examined, with focus on precipitation and near surface air temperature. The models are able to reproduce the basic features of the observed summer mean precipitation and temperature over China and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. Overall, the model performance is better for temperature than that of precipitation. The models reasonably grasp the major anomalies and standard deviations over China and the five subregions studied. The models generally reproduce the spatial pattern of high interannual variability over wet regions, and low variability over the dry regions. The models also capture well the variable temperature gradient increase to the north by latitude. Both the observed and simulated linear trend of precipitation shows a drying tendency over the Yangtze River Basin and wetting over South China. The models capture well the relatively small temperature trends in large areas of China. The models reasonably simulate the characteristics of extreme precipitation indices of heavy rain days and heavy precipitation fraction. Most of the models also performed well in capturing both the sign and magnitude of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures over China.

Evaluation of the WRF model for precipitation downscaling on orographic complex islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Díaz, Juan P.; González, Albano; Expósito, Francisco; Pérez, Juan C.

2010-05-01

General Circulation Models (GCMs) have proven to be an effective tool to simulate many aspects of large-scale and global climate. However, their applicability to climate impact studies is limited by their capabilities to resolve regional scale situations. In this sense, dynamical downscaling techniques are an appropriate alternative to estimate high resolution regional climatologies. In this work, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) has been used to simulate precipitations over the Canary Islands region during 2009. The precipitation patterns over Canary Islands, located at North Atlantic region, show large gradients over a relatively small geographical area due to large scale factors such as Trade Winds regime predominant in the area and mesoscale factors mainly due to the complex terrain. Sensitivity study of simulated WRF precipitations to variations in model setup and parameterizations was carried out. Thus, WRF experiments were performed using two way nesting at 3 km horizontal grid spacing and 28 vertical levels in the Canaries inner domain. The initial and lateral and lower boundary conditions for the outer domain were provided at 6 hourly intervals by NCEP FNL (Final) Operational Global Analysis data on 1.0x1.0 degree resolution interpolated onto the WRF model grid. Numerous model options have been tested, including different microphysics schemes, cumulus parameterizations and nudging configuration Positive-definite moisture advection condition was also checked. Two integration approaches were analyzed: a 1-year continuous long-term integration and a consecutive short-term monthly reinitialized integration. To assess the accuracy of our simulations, model results are compared against observational datasets obtained from a network of meteorological stations in the region. In general, we can observe that the regional model is able to reproduce the spatial distribution of precipitation, but overestimates rainfall, mainly during strong precipitation events.

Non-stationary Return Levels of CMIP5 Multi-model Temperature Extremes

DOE PAGES

Cheng, L.; Phillips, T. J.; AghaKouchak, A.

2015-05-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate to what extent the CMIP5 climate model simulations of the climate of the twentieth century can represent observed warm monthly temperature extremes under a changing environment. The biases and spatial patterns of 2-, 10-, 25-, 50- and 100-year return levels of the annual maxima of monthly mean temperature (hereafter, annual temperature maxima) from CMIP5 simulations are compared with those of Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observational data considered under a non-stationary assumption. The results show that CMIP5 climate models collectively underestimate the mean annual maxima over arid and semi-arid regions that are mostmore » subject to severe heat waves and droughts. Furthermore, the results indicate that most climate models tend to underestimate the historical annual temperature maxima over the United States and Greenland, while generally disagreeing in their simulations over cold regions. Return level analysis shows that with respect to the spatial patterns of the annual temperature maxima, there are good agreements between the CRU observations and most CMIP5 simulations. However, the magnitudes of the simulated annual temperature maxima differ substantially across individual models. Discrepancies are generally larger over higher latitudes and cold regions.« less

Cloud microphysics modification with an online coupled COSMO-MUSCAT regional model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudhakar, D.; Quaas, J.; Wolke, R.; Stoll, J.; Muehlbauer, A. D.; Tegen, I.

2015-12-01

Abstract: The quantification of clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions in models, continues to be a challenge (IPCC, 2013). In this scenario two-moment bulk microphysical scheme is used to understand the aerosol-cloud interactions in the regional model COSMO (Consortium for Small Scale Modeling). The two-moment scheme in COSMO has been especially designed to represent aerosol effects on the microphysics of mixed-phase clouds (Seifert et al., 2006). To improve the model predictability, the radiation scheme has been coupled with two-moment microphysical scheme. Further, the cloud microphysics parameterization has been modified via coupling COSMO with MUSCAT (MultiScale Chemistry Aerosol Transport model, Wolke et al., 2004). In this study, we will be discussing the initial result from the online-coupled COSMO-MUSCAT model system with modified two-moment parameterization scheme along with COSP (CFMIP Observational Simulator Package) satellite simulator. This online coupled model system aims to improve the sub-grid scale process in the regional weather prediction scenario. The constant aerosol concentration used in the Seifert and Beheng, (2006) parameterizations in COSMO model has been replaced by aerosol concentration derived from MUSCAT model. The cloud microphysical process from the modified two-moment scheme is compared with stand-alone COSMO model. To validate the robustness of the model simulation, the coupled model system is integrated with COSP satellite simulator (Muhlbauer et al., 2012). Further, the simulations are compared with MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) satellite products.

Simulation of the Regional Ground-Water-Flow System and Ground-Water/Surface-Water Interaction in the Rock River Basin, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Juckem, Paul F.

2009-01-01

A regional, two-dimensional, areal ground-water-flow model was developed to simulate the ground-water-flow system and ground-water/surface-water interaction in the Rock River Basin. The model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Rock River Coalition. The objectives of the regional model were to improve understanding of the ground-water-flow system and to develop a tool suitable for evaluating the effects of potential regional water-management programs. The computer code GFLOW was used because of the ease with which the model can simulate ground-water/surface-water interactions, provide a framework for simulating regional ground-water-flow systems, and be refined in a stepwise fashion to incorporate new data and simulate ground-water-flow patterns at multiple scales. The ground-water-flow model described in this report simulates the major hydrogeologic features of the modeled area, including bedrock and surficial aquifers, ground-water/surface-water interactions, and ground-water withdrawals from high-capacity wells. The steady-state model treats the ground-water-flow system as a single layer with hydraulic conductivity and base elevation zones that reflect the distribution of lithologic groups above the Precambrian bedrock and a regionally significant confining unit, the Maquoketa Formation. In the eastern part of the Basin where the shale-rich Maquoketa Formation is present, deep ground-water flow in the sandstone aquifer below the Maquoketa Formation was not simulated directly, but flow into this aquifer was incorporated into the GFLOW model from previous work in southeastern Wisconsin. Recharge was constrained primarily by stream base-flow estimates and was applied uniformly within zones guided by regional infiltration estimates for soils. The model includes average ground-water withdrawals from 1997 to 2006 for municipal wells and from 1997 to 2005 for high-capacity irrigation, industrial, and commercial wells. In addition, the model routes tributary base flow through the river network to the Rock River. The parameter-estimation code PEST was linked to the GFLOW model to select the combination of parameter values best able to match more than 8,000 water-level measurements and base-flow estimates at 9 streamgages. Results from the calibrated GFLOW model show simulated (1) ground-water-flow directions, (2) ground-water/surface-water interactions, as depicted in a map of gaining and losing river and lake sections, (3) ground-water contributing areas for selected tributary rivers, and (4) areas of relatively local ground water captured by rivers. Ground-water flow patterns are controlled primarily by river geometries, with most river sections gaining water from the ground-water-flow system; losing sections are most common on the downgradient shore of lakes and reservoirs or near major pumping centers. Ground-water contributing areas to tributary rivers generally coincide with surface watersheds; however the locations of ground-water divides are controlled by the water table, whereas surface-water divides are controlled by surface topography. Finally, areas of relatively local ground water captured by rivers generally extend upgradient from rivers but are modified by the regional flow pattern, such that these areas tend to shift toward regional ground-water divides for relatively small rivers. It is important to recognize the limitations of this regional-scale model. Heterogeneities in subsurface properties and in recharge rates are considered only at a very broad scale (miles to tens of miles). No account is taken of vertical variations in properties or pumping rates, and no provision is made to account for stacked ground-water-flow systems that have different flow patterns at different depths. Small-scale flow systems (hundreds to thousands of feet) associated with minor water bodies are not considered; as a result, the model is not currently designed for simulating site-specifi

An efficient surrogate-based simulation-optimization method for calibrating a regional MODFLOW model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Mingjie; Izady, Azizallah; Abdalla, Osman A.

2017-01-01

Simulation-optimization method entails a large number of model simulations, which is computationally intensive or even prohibitive if the model simulation is extremely time-consuming. Statistical models have been examined as a surrogate of the high-fidelity physical model during simulation-optimization process to tackle this problem. Among them, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), a non-parametric adaptive regression method, is superior in overcoming problems of high-dimensions and discontinuities of the data. Furthermore, the stability and accuracy of MARS model can be improved by bootstrap aggregating methods, namely, bagging. In this paper, Bagging MARS (BMARS) method is integrated to a surrogate-based simulation-optimization framework to calibrate a three-dimensional MODFLOW model, which is developed to simulate the groundwater flow in an arid hardrock-alluvium region in northwestern Oman. The physical MODFLOW model is surrogated by the statistical model developed using BMARS algorithm. The surrogate model, which is fitted and validated using training dataset generated by the physical model, can approximate solutions rapidly. An efficient Sobol' method is employed to calculate global sensitivities of head outputs to input parameters, which are used to analyze their importance for the model outputs spatiotemporally. Only sensitive parameters are included in the calibration process to further improve the computational efficiency. Normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) between measured and simulated heads at observation wells is used as the objective function to be minimized during optimization. The reasonable history match between the simulated and observed heads demonstrated feasibility of this high-efficient calibration framework.

Effects of Soil Data and Simulation Unit Resolution on Quantifying Changes of Soil Organic Carbon at Regional Scale with a Biogeochemical Process Model

PubMed Central

Zhang, Liming; Yu, Dongsheng; Shi, Xuezheng; Xu, Shengxiang; Xing, Shihe; Zhao, Yongcong

2014-01-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) models were often applied to regions with high heterogeneity, but limited spatially differentiated soil information and simulation unit resolution. This study, carried out in the Tai-Lake region of China, defined the uncertainty derived from application of the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) biogeochemical model in an area with heterogeneous soil properties and different simulation units. Three different resolution soil attribute databases, a polygonal capture of mapping units at 1∶50,000 (P5), a county-based database of 1∶50,000 (C5) and county-based database of 1∶14,000,000 (C14), were used as inputs for regional DNDC simulation. The P5 and C5 databases were combined with the 1∶50,000 digital soil map, which is the most detailed soil database for the Tai-Lake region. The C14 database was combined with 1∶14,000,000 digital soil map, which is a coarse database and is often used for modeling at a national or regional scale in China. The soil polygons of P5 database and county boundaries of C5 and C14 databases were used as basic simulation units. Results project that from 1982 to 2000, total SOC change in the top layer (0–30 cm) of the 2.3 M ha of paddy soil in the Tai-Lake region was +1.48 Tg C, −3.99 Tg C and −15.38 Tg C based on P5, C5 and C14 databases, respectively. With the total SOC change as modeled with P5 inputs as the baseline, which is the advantages of using detailed, polygon-based soil dataset, the relative deviation of C5 and C14 were 368% and 1126%, respectively. The comparison illustrates that DNDC simulation is strongly influenced by choice of fundamental geographic resolution as well as input soil attribute detail. The results also indicate that improving the framework of DNDC is essential in creating accurate models of the soil carbon cycle. PMID:24523922

Simulating Snow in Canadian Boreal Environments with CLASS for ESM-SnowMIP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Bartlett, P. A.; Derksen, C.; Ireson, A. M.; Essery, R.

2017-12-01

The ability of land surface schemes to provide realistic simulations of snow cover is necessary for accurate representation of energy and water balances in climate models. Historically, this has been particularly challenging in boreal forests, where poor treatment of both snow masking by forests and vegetation-snow interaction has resulted in biases in simulated albedo and snowpack properties, with subsequent effects on both regional temperatures and the snow albedo feedback in coupled simulations. The SnowMIP (Snow Model Intercomparison Project) series of experiments or `MIPs' was initiated in order to provide assessments of the performance of various snow- and land-surface-models at selected locations, in order to understand the primary factors affecting model performance. Here we present preliminary results of simulations conducted for the third such MIP, ESM-SnowMIP (Earth System Model - Snow Model Intercomparison Project), using the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) at boreal forest sites in central Saskatchewan. We assess the ability of our latest model version (CLASS 3.6.2) to simulate observed snowpack properties (snow water equivalent, density and depth) and above-canopy albedo over 13 winters. We also examine the sensitivity of these simulations to climate forcing at local and regional scales.

Combining super-ensembles and statistical emulation to improve a regional climate and vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawkins, L. R.; Rupp, D. E.; Li, S.; Sarah, S.; McNeall, D. J.; Mote, P.; Betts, R. A.; Wallom, D.

2017-12-01

Changing regional patterns of surface temperature, precipitation, and humidity may cause ecosystem-scale changes in vegetation, altering the distribution of trees, shrubs, and grasses. A changing vegetation distribution, in turn, alters the albedo, latent heat flux, and carbon exchanged with the atmosphere with resulting feedbacks onto the regional climate. However, a wide range of earth-system processes that affect the carbon, energy, and hydrologic cycles occur at sub grid scales in climate models and must be parameterized. The appropriate parameter values in such parameterizations are often poorly constrained, leading to uncertainty in predictions of how the ecosystem will respond to changes in forcing. To better understand the sensitivity of regional climate to parameter selection and to improve regional climate and vegetation simulations, we used a large perturbed physics ensemble and a suite of statistical emulators. We dynamically downscaled a super-ensemble (multiple parameter sets and multiple initial conditions) of global climate simulations using a 25-km resolution regional climate model HadRM3p with the land-surface scheme MOSES2 and dynamic vegetation module TRIFFID. We simultaneously perturbed land surface parameters relating to the exchange of carbon, water, and energy between the land surface and atmosphere in a large super-ensemble of regional climate simulations over the western US. Statistical emulation was used as a computationally cost-effective tool to explore uncertainties in interactions. Regions of parameter space that did not satisfy observational constraints were eliminated and an ensemble of parameter sets that reduce regional biases and span a range of plausible interactions among earth system processes were selected. This study demonstrated that by combining super-ensemble simulations with statistical emulation, simulations of regional climate could be improved while simultaneously accounting for a range of plausible land-atmosphere feedback strengths.

Impact of spectral nudging on regional climate simulation over CORDEX East Asia using WRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jianping; Wang, Shuyu; Niu, Xiaorui; Hui, Pinhong; Zong, Peishu; Wang, Xueyuan

2017-04-01

In this study, the impact of the spectral nudging method on regional climate simulation over the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment East Asia (CORDEX-EA) region is investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis, five continuous simulations covering 1989-2007 are conducted by the WRF model, in which four runs adopt the interior spectral nudging with different wavenumbers, nudging variables and nudging coefficients. Model validation shows that WRF has the ability to simulate spatial distributions and temporal variations of the surface climate (air temperature and precipitation) over CORDEX-EA domain. Comparably the spectral nudging technique is effective in improving the model's skill in the following aspects: (1), the simulated biases and root mean square errors of annual mean temperature and precipitation are obviously reduced. The SN3-UVT (spectral nudging with wavenumber 3 in both zonal and meridional directions applied to U, V and T) and SN6 (spectral nudging with wavenumber 6 in both zonal and meridional directions applied to U and V) experiments give the best simulations for temperature and precipitation respectively. The inter-annual and seasonal variances produced by the SN experiments are also closer to the ERA-Interim observation. (2), the application of spectral nudging in WRF is helpful for simulating the extreme temperature and precipitation, and the SN3-UVT simulation shows a clear advantage over the other simulations in depicting both the spatial distributions and inter-annual variances of temperature and precipitation extremes. With the spectral nudging, WRF is able to preserve the variability in the large scale climate information, and therefore adjust the temperature and precipitation variabilities toward the observation.

A Variable Resolution Stretched Grid General Circulation Model: Regional Climate Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.; Takacs, Lawrence L.; Govindaraju, Ravi C.; Suarez, Max J.

2000-01-01

The development of and results obtained with a variable resolution stretched-grid GCM for the regional climate simulation mode, are presented. A global variable resolution stretched- grid used in the study has enhanced horizontal resolution over the U.S. as the area of interest The stretched-grid approach is an ideal tool for representing regional to global scale interaction& It is an alternative to the widely used nested grid approach introduced over a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. The major results of the study are presented for the successful stretched-grid GCM simulation of the anomalous climate event of the 1988 U.S. summer drought- The straightforward (with no updates) two month simulation is performed with 60 km regional resolution- The major drought fields, patterns and characteristics such as the time averaged 500 hPa heights precipitation and the low level jet over the drought area. appear to be close to the verifying analyses for the stretched-grid simulation- In other words, the stretched-grid GCM provides an efficient down-scaling over the area of interest with enhanced horizontal resolution. It is also shown that the GCM skill is sustained throughout the simulation extended to one year. The developed and tested in a simulation mode stretched-grid GCM is a viable tool for regional and subregional climate studies and applications.

Modelling total solar irradiance since 1878 from simulated magnetograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dasi-Espuig, M.; Jiang, J.; Krivova, N. A.; Solanki, S. K.

2014-10-01

Aims: We present a new model of total solar irradiance (TSI) based on magnetograms simulated with a surface flux transport model (SFTM) and the Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstructions (SATIRE) model. Our model provides daily maps of the distribution of the photospheric field and the TSI starting from 1878. Methods: The modelling is done in two main steps. We first calculate the magnetic flux on the solar surface emerging in active and ephemeral regions. The evolution of the magnetic flux in active regions (sunspots and faculae) is computed using a surface flux transport model fed with the observed record of sunspot group areas and positions. The magnetic flux in ephemeral regions is treated separately using the concept of overlapping cycles. We then use a version of the SATIRE model to compute the TSI. The area coverage and the distribution of different magnetic features as a function of time, which are required by SATIRE, are extracted from the simulated magnetograms and the modelled ephemeral region magnetic flux. Previously computed intensity spectra of the various types of magnetic features are employed. Results: Our model reproduces the PMOD composite of TSI measurements starting from 1978 at daily and rotational timescales more accurately than the previous version of the SATIRE model computing TSI over this period of time. The simulated magnetograms provide a more realistic representation of the evolution of the magnetic field on the photosphere and also allow us to make use of information on the spatial distribution of the magnetic fields before the times when observed magnetograms were available. We find that the secular increase in TSI since 1878 is fairly stable to modifications of the treatment of the ephemeral region magnetic flux.

A 3-D ecosystem model in the Pacific Ocean and its simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Y.; Ba, Q.

2011-12-01

A simple 3-D ecosystem model with nutrient, phytoplankton, zooplankton and detritus is coupled into the basinwide ocean general circulation (OGCM) of the Pacific Ocean that has been examined by the passive tracer such as tritium. The model was integrated for 500 years under the forcing of climatological monthly mean fields. The model generates similar distribution patterns of ecosystem variables to the estimates based on satellite-derived chlorophyll maps by vertically generalized production model with low water-column NPP values in the subtropical region and high values in the subarctic region and equatorial upwelling region. But the area and strength of oligotrophic gyre is much larger than that indicated in the observations. Compared with the observations, seasonal variations of surface chlorophyll concentrations and top 200-m average zooplankton biomass in the mid-high latitude regions are well simulated in the model. Because of the restoring term near the northern boundary used in the model, a false phytoplankton bloom can occur nearby 50N during winter time. An unrealistic maximum value in the vertical profile of chlorophyll near ocean weather station Papa is generated by our model. In terms of modification of model structure and sensitivity test of the associated parameters, the simulated results can be well improved. Although the division of nutrient into nitrate and ammonium and inclusion of DON in the model can alleviate the low-NPP problem in the subtropical region, modification of the sinking rate and decomposition rate of detritus in the model can be more effective. Introduction of the influence of mixed layer on the ecosystem process and modification of restraint of nutrients near the northern boundary can overcome the shortcomings of simulation of both spring bloom near 50N and vertical profile of chlorophyll at Papa to some extent.

Koeppen Bioclimatic Metrics for Evaluating CMIP5 Simulations of Historical Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, T. J.; Bonfils, C.

2012-12-01

The classic Koeppen bioclimatic classification scheme associates generic vegetation types (e.g. grassland, tundra, broadleaf or evergreen forests, etc.) with regional climate zones defined by the observed amplitude and phase of the annual cycles of continental temperature (T) and precipitation (P). Koeppen classification thus can provide concise, multivariate metrics for evaluating climate model performance in simulating the regional magnitudes and seasonalities of climate variables that are of critical importance for living organisms. In this study, 14 Koeppen vegetation types are derived from annual-cycle climatologies of T and P in some 3 dozen CMIP5 simulations of 1980-1999 climate, a period when observational data provides a reliable global validation standard. Metrics for evaluating the ability of the CMIP5 models to simulate the correct locations and areas of the vegetation types, as well as measures of overall model performance, also are developed. It is found that the CMIP5 models are most deficient in simulating 1) the climates of the drier zones (e.g. desert, savanna, grassland, steppe vegetation types) that are located in the Southwestern U.S. and Mexico, Eastern Europe, Southern Africa, and Central Australia, as well as 2) the climate of regions such as Central Asia and Western South America where topography plays a central role. (Detailed analysis of regional biases in the annual cycles of T and P of selected simulations exemplifying general model performance problems also are to be presented.) The more encouraging results include evidence for a general improvement in CMIP5 performance relative to that of older CMIP3 models. Within CMIP5 also, the more complex Earth Systems Models (ESMs) with prognostic biogeochemistry perform comparably to the corresponding global models that simulate only the "physical" climate. Acknowledgments This work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science and was performed at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Three region steam drum model for a nuclear power plant simulator (BRENDA). Technical report 1 Oct 80-May 81. [LMFBR

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Slovik, G.C.

1981-08-01

A new three region steam drum model has been developed. This model differs from previous works for it assumes the existence of three regions within the steam drum: a steam region, a mid region (assumed to be under saturation conditions at steady state), and a bottom region (having a mixed mean subcooled enthalpy).

Simulating the spread of selection-driven genotypes using landscape resistance models for desert bighorn sheep.

PubMed

Creech, Tyler G; Epps, Clinton W; Landguth, Erin L; Wehausen, John D; Crowhurst, Rachel S; Holton, Brandon; Monello, Ryan J

2017-01-01

Landscape genetic studies based on neutral genetic markers have contributed to our understanding of the influence of landscape composition and configuration on gene flow and genetic variation. However, the potential for species to adapt to changing landscapes will depend on how natural selection influences adaptive genetic variation. We demonstrate how landscape resistance models can be combined with genetic simulations incorporating natural selection to explore how the spread of adaptive variation is affected by landscape characteristics, using desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni) in three differing regions of the southwestern United States as an example. We conducted genetic sampling and least-cost path modeling to optimize landscape resistance models independently for each region, and then simulated the spread of an adaptive allele favored by selection across each region. Optimized landscape resistance models differed between regions with respect to landscape variables included and their relationships to resistance, but the slope of terrain and the presence of water barriers and major roads had the greatest impacts on gene flow. Genetic simulations showed that differences among landscapes strongly influenced spread of adaptive genetic variation, with faster spread (1) in landscapes with more continuously distributed habitat and (2) when a pre-existing allele (i.e., standing genetic variation) rather than a novel allele (i.e., mutation) served as the source of adaptive genetic variation. The combination of landscape resistance models and genetic simulations has broad conservation applications and can facilitate comparisons of adaptive potential within and between landscapes.

Simulating the spread of selection-driven genotypes using landscape resistance models for desert bighorn sheep

PubMed Central

Epps, Clinton W.; Landguth, Erin L.; Wehausen, John D.; Crowhurst, Rachel S.; Holton, Brandon; Monello, Ryan J.

2017-01-01

Landscape genetic studies based on neutral genetic markers have contributed to our understanding of the influence of landscape composition and configuration on gene flow and genetic variation. However, the potential for species to adapt to changing landscapes will depend on how natural selection influences adaptive genetic variation. We demonstrate how landscape resistance models can be combined with genetic simulations incorporating natural selection to explore how the spread of adaptive variation is affected by landscape characteristics, using desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni) in three differing regions of the southwestern United States as an example. We conducted genetic sampling and least-cost path modeling to optimize landscape resistance models independently for each region, and then simulated the spread of an adaptive allele favored by selection across each region. Optimized landscape resistance models differed between regions with respect to landscape variables included and their relationships to resistance, but the slope of terrain and the presence of water barriers and major roads had the greatest impacts on gene flow. Genetic simulations showed that differences among landscapes strongly influenced spread of adaptive genetic variation, with faster spread (1) in landscapes with more continuously distributed habitat and (2) when a pre-existing allele (i.e., standing genetic variation) rather than a novel allele (i.e., mutation) served as the source of adaptive genetic variation. The combination of landscape resistance models and genetic simulations has broad conservation applications and can facilitate comparisons of adaptive potential within and between landscapes. PMID:28464013

[Collaborative application of BEPS at different time steps.

PubMed

Lu, Wei; Fan, Wen Yi; Tian, Tian

2016-09-01

BEPSHourly is committed to simulate the ecological and physiological process of vegetation at hourly time steps, and is often applied to analyze the diurnal change of gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP) at site scale because of its more complex model structure and time-consuming solving process. However, daily photosynthetic rate calculation in BEPSDaily model is simpler and less time-consuming, not involving many iterative processes. It is suitable for simulating the regional primary productivity and analyzing the spatial distribution of regional carbon sources and sinks. According to the characteristics and applicability of BEPSDaily and BEPSHourly models, this paper proposed a method of collaborative application of BEPS at daily and hourly time steps. Firstly, BEPSHourly was used to optimize the main photosynthetic parameters: the maximum rate of carboxylation (V c max ) and the maximum rate of photosynthetic electron transport (J max ) at site scale, and then the two optimized parameters were introduced into BEPSDaily model to estimate regional NPP at regional scale. The results showed that optimization of the main photosynthesis parameters based on the flux data could improve the simulate ability of the model. The primary productivity of different forest types in descending order was deciduous broad-leaved forest, mixed forest, coniferous forest in 2011. The collaborative application of carbon cycle models at different steps proposed in this study could effectively optimize the main photosynthesis parameters V c max and J max , simulate the monthly averaged diurnal GPP, NPP, calculate the regional NPP, and analyze the spatial distribution of regional carbon sources and sinks.

A computer simulation model to compute the radiation transfer of mountainous regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yuguang; Zhao, Feng; Song, Rui

2011-11-01

In mountainous regions, the radiometric signal recorded at the sensor depends on a number of factors such as sun angle, atmospheric conditions, surface cover type, and topography. In this paper, a computer simulation model of radiation transfer is designed and evaluated. This model implements the Monte Carlo ray-tracing techniques and is specifically dedicated to the study of light propagation in mountainous regions. The radiative processes between sun light and the objects within the mountainous region are realized by using forward Monte Carlo ray-tracing methods. The performance of the model is evaluated through detailed comparisons with the well-established 3D computer simulation model: RGM (Radiosity-Graphics combined Model) based on the same scenes and identical spectral parameters, which shows good agreements between these two models' results. By using the newly developed computer model, series of typical mountainous scenes are generated to analyze the physical mechanism of mountainous radiation transfer. The results show that the effects of the adjacent slopes are important for deep valleys and they particularly affect shadowed pixels, and the topographic effect needs to be considered in mountainous terrain before accurate inferences from remotely sensed data can be made.

Analysis of precipitation teleconnections in CMIP models as a measure of model fidelity in simulating precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langenbrunner, B.; Neelin, J.; Meyerson, J.

2011-12-01

The accurate representation of precipitation is a recurring issue in global climate models, especially in the tropics. Poor skill in modeling the variability and climate teleconnections associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also persisted in the latest Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) campaigns. Observed ENSO precipitation teleconnections provide a standard by which we can judge a given model's ability to reproduce precipitation and dynamic feedback processes originating in the tropical Pacific. Using CMIP3 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs as a baseline, we compare precipitation teleconnections between models and observations, and we evaluate these results against available CMIP5 historical and AMIP runs. Using AMIP simulations restricts evaluation to the atmospheric response, as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in AMIP are prescribed by observations. We use a rank correlation between ENSO SST indices and precipitation to define teleconnections, since this method is robust to outliers and appropriate for non-Gaussian data. Spatial correlations of the modeled and observed teleconnections are then evaluated. We look at these correlations in regions of strong precipitation teleconnections, including equatorial S. America, the "horseshoe" region in the western tropical Pacific, and southern N. America. For each region and season, we create a "normalized projection" of a given model's teleconnection pattern onto that of the observations, a metric that assesses the quality of regional pattern simulations while rewarding signals of correct sign over the region. Comparing this to an area-averaged (i.e., more generous) metric suggests models do better when restrictions on exact spatial dependence are loosened and conservation constraints apply. Model fidelity in regional measures remains far from perfect, suggesting intrinsic issues with the models' regional sensitivities in moist processes.

Surface wind accuracy for modeling mineral dust emissions: Comparing two regional models in a Bodélé case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurent, B.; Heinold, B.; Tegen, I.; Bouet, C.; Cautenet, G.

2008-05-01

After a decade of research on improving the description of surface and soil features in desert regions to accurately model mineral dust emissions, we now emphasize the need for deeper evaluating the accuracy of modeled 10-m surface wind speeds U 10 . Two mesoscale models, the Lokal-Modell (LM) and the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), coupled with an explicit dust emission model have previously been used to simulate mineral dust events in the Bodélé region. We compare LM and RAMS U 10 , together with measurements at the Chicha site (BoDEx campaign) and Faya-Largeau meteorological station. Surface features and soil schemes are investigated to correctly simulate U 10 intensity and diurnal variability. The uncertainties in dust emissions computed with LM and RAMS U 10 and different soil databases are estimated. This sensitivity study shows the importance of accurate computation of surface winds to improve the quantification of regional dust emissions from the Bodélé

Continuously on-­going regional climate hindcast simulations for impact applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anders, Ivonne; Piringer, Martin; Kaufmann, Hildegard; Knauder, Werner; Resch, Gernot; Andre, Konrad

2017-04-01

Observational data for e.g. temperature, precipitation, radiation, or wind are often used as meteorological forcing for different impact models, like e.g. crop models, urban models, economic models and energy system models. To assess a climate signal, the time period covered by the observation is often too short, they have gaps in between, and are inhomogeneous over time, due to changes in the measurements itself or in the near surrounding. Thus output from global and regional climate models can close the gap and provide homogeneous and physically consistent time series of meteorological parameters. CORDEX evaluation runs performed for the IPCC-AR5 provide a good base for the regional scale. However, with respect to climate services, continuously on-going hindcast simulations are required for regularly updated applications. The Climate Research group at the national Austrian weather service, ZAMG, is focusing on high mountain regions and, especially on the Alps. The hindcast-simulation performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM is forced by ERAinterim and optimized for the Alpine Region. The simulation available for the period of 1979-2015 in a spatial resolution of about 10km is prolonged ongoing and fullfils the customer's needs with respect of output variables, levels, intervals and statistical measures. One of the main tasks is to capture strong precipitation events which often occur during summer when low pressure systems develop over the Golf of Genoa, moving to the Northeast. This leads to floods and landslide events in Austria, Czech Republic and Germany. Such events are not sufficiently represented in the CORDEX-evaluation runs. ZAMG use high quality gridded precipitation and temperature data for the Alpine Region (1-6km) to evaluate the model performance. Data is provided e.g. to hydrological modellers (high water, low water), but also to assess icing capability of infrastructure or the calculation the separation distances between livestock farming and residential area.

Assessing the Impact of Climatic Variability and Change on Maize Production in the Midwestern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andresen, J.; Jain, A. K.; Niyogi, D. S.; Alagarswamy, G.; Biehl, L.; Delamater, P.; Doering, O.; Elias, A.; Elmore, R.; Gramig, B.; Hart, C.; Kellner, O.; Liu, X.; Mohankumar, E.; Prokopy, L. S.; Song, C.; Todey, D.; Widhalm, M.

2013-12-01

Weather and climate remain among the most important uncontrollable factors in agricultural production systems. In this study, three process-based crop simulation models were used to identify the impacts of climate on the production of maize in the Midwestern U.S.A. during the past century. The 12-state region is a key global production area, responsible for more than 80% of U.S. domestic and 25% of total global production. The study is a part of the Useful to Useable (U2U) Project, a USDA NIFA-sponsored project seeking to improve the resilience and profitability of farming operations in the region amid climate variability and change. Three process-based crop simulation models were used in the study: CERES-Maize (DSSAT, Hoogenboom et al., 2012), the Hybrid-Maize model (Yang et al., 2004), and the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM, Song et al., 2013). Model validation was carried out with individual plot and county observations. The models were run with 4 to 50 km spatial resolution gridded weather data for representative soils and cultivars, 1981-2012, to examine spatial and temporal yield variability within the region. We also examined the influence of different crop models and spatial scales on regional scale yield estimation, as well as a yield gap analysis between observed and attainable yields. An additional study was carried out with the CERES-Maize model at 18 individual site locations 1901-2012 to examine longer term historical trends. For all simulations, all input variables were held constant in order to isolate the impacts of climate. In general, the model estimates were in good agreement with observed yields, especially in central sections of the region. Regionally, low precipitation and soil moisture stress were chief limitations to simulated crop yields. The study suggests that at least part of the observed yield increases in the region during recent decades have occurred as the result of wetter, less stressful growing season weather conditions.

A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System based on Satellite and other Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lean, P.; Kim, J.; Waliser, D. E.; Hall, A. D.; Mattmann, C. A.; Granger, S. L.; Case, K.; Goodale, C.; Hart, A.; Zimdars, P.; Guan, B.; Molotch, N. P.; Kaki, S.

2010-12-01

Regional climate models are a fundamental tool needed for downscaling global climate simulations and projections, such as those contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs) that form the basis of the IPCC Assessment Reports. The regional modeling process provides the means to accommodate higher resolution and a greater complexity of Earth System processes. Evaluation of both the global and regional climate models against observations is essential to identify model weaknesses and to direct future model development efforts focused on reducing the uncertainty associated with climate projections. However, the lack of reliable observational data and the lack of formal tools are among the serious limitations to addressing these objectives. Recent satellite observations are particularly useful as they provide a wealth of information on many different aspects of the climate system, but due to their large volume and the difficulties associated with accessing and using the data, these datasets have been generally underutilized in model evaluation studies. Recognizing this problem, NASA JPL / UCLA is developing a model evaluation system to help make satellite observations, in conjunction with in-situ, assimilated, and reanalysis datasets, more readily accessible to the modeling community. The system includes a central database to store multiple datasets in a common format and codes for calculating predefined statistical metrics to assess model performance. This allows the time taken to compare model simulations with satellite observations to be reduced from weeks to days. Early results from the use this new model evaluation system for evaluating regional climate simulations over California/western US regions will be presented.

The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP): Status and results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutowski, W. J.

2009-12-01

NARCCAP is a multi-institutional program that is investigating systematically the uncertainties in regional scale simulations of contemporary climate and projections of future climate. NARCCAP is supported by multiple federal agencies. NARCCAP is producing an ensemble of high-resolution climate-change scenarios by nesting multiple RCMs in reanalyses and multiple atmosphere-ocean GCM simulations of contemporary and future-scenario climates. The RCM domains cover the contiguous U.S., northern Mexico, and most of Canada. The simulation suite also includes time-slice, high resolution GCMs that use sea-surface temperatures from parent atmosphere-ocean GCMs. The baseline resolution of the RCMs and time-slice GCMs is 50 km. Simulations use three sources of boundary conditions: National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Department of Energy (DOE) AMIP-II Reanalysis, GCMs simulating contemporary climate and GCMs using the A2 SRES emission scenario for the twenty-first century. Simulations cover 1979-2004 and 2038-2060, with the first 3 years discarded for spin-up. The resulting RCM and time-slice simulations offer opportunity for extensive analysis of RCM simulations as well as a basis for multiple high-resolution climate scenarios for climate change impacts assessments. Geophysical statisticians are developing measures of uncertainty from the ensemble. To enable very high-resolution simulations of specific regions, both RCM and high-resolution time-slice simulations are saving output needed for further downscaling. All output is publically available to the climate analysis and the climate impacts assessment community, through an archiving and data-distribution plan. Some initial results show that the models closely reproduce ENSO-related precipitation variations in coastal California, where the correlation between the simulated and observed monthly time series exceeds 0.94 for all models. The strong El Nino events of 1982-83 and 1997-98 are well reproduced for the Pacific coastal region of the U.S. in all models. ENSO signals are less well reproduced in other regions. The models also produce well extreme monthly precipitation in coastal California and the Upper Midwest. Model performance tends to deteriorate from west to east across the domain, or roughly from the inflow boundary toward the outflow boundary. This deterioration with distance from the inflow boundary is ameliorated to some extent in models formulated such that large-scale information is included in the model solution, whether implemented by spectral nudging or by use of a perturbation form of the governing equations.

Simulation of the modern arctic climate by the NCAR CCM1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bromwich, David H.; Tzeng, Ren-Yow; Parish, Thomas, R.

1994-01-01

The National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model Version 1 (CCM1's) simulation of the modern arctic climate is evaluated by comparing a five-year seasonal cycle simulation with the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global analyses. The sea level pressure (SLP), storm tracks, vertical cross section of height, 500-hPa height, total energy budget, and moisture budget are analyzed to investigate the biases in the simulated arctic climate. The results show that the model simulates anomalously low SLP, too much storm activity, and anomalously strong baroclinicity to the west of Greenland and vice versa to the east of Greenland. This bias is mainly attributed to the model's topographic representation of Greenland. First, the broadened Greenland topography in the model distorts the path of cyclone waves over the North Atlantic Ocean. Second, the model oversimulates the ridge over Greenland, which intensifies its blocking effect and steers the cyclone waves clockwise around it and hence produces an artificial circum-Greenland trough. These biases are significantly alleviated when the horizontal resolution increases to T42. Over the Arctic basin, the model simulates large amounts of low-level (stratus) clouds in winter and almost no stratus in summer, which is opposite to the observations. This bias is mainly due to the location of the simulated SLP features and the negative anomaly of storm activity, which prevent the transport of moisture into this region during summer but favor this transport in winter. The moisture budget analysis shows that the model's net annual precipitation (P-E) between 70 deg N and the North Pole is 6.6 times larger than the observations and the model transports six times more moisture into this region. The bias in the advection term is attributed to the positive moisture fixer scheme and the distorted flow pattern. However, the excessive moisture transport into the Arctic basin does not solely result from the advection term. The contribution by the moisture fixer is as large as from advection. By contrast, the semi-Lagrangian transport scheme used in the CCM2 significantly improves the moisture simulation for this region; however, globally the error is as serious as for the positive moisture fixer scheme. Finally, because the model has such serious problems in simulating the present arctic climate, its simulations of past and future climate change for this region are questionable.

Impact of the Indian part of the summer MJO on West Africa using nudged climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohino, Elsa; Janicot, Serge; Douville, Hervé; Li, Laurent Z. X.

2012-06-01

Observational evidence suggests a link between the summer Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and anomalous convection over West Africa. This link is further studied with the help of the LMDZ atmospheric general circulation model. The approach is based on nudging the model towards the reanalysis in the Asian monsoon region. The simulation successfully captures the convection associated with the summer MJO in the nudging region. Outside this region the model is free to evolve. Over West Africa it simulates convection anomalies that are similar in magnitude, structure, and timing to the observed ones. In accordance with the observations, the simulation shows that 15-20 days after the maximum increase (decrease) of convection in the Indian Ocean there is a significant reduction (increase) in West African convection. The simulation strongly suggests that in addition to the eastward-moving MJO signal, the westward propagation of a convectively coupled equatorial Rossby wave is needed to explain the overall impact of the MJO on convection over West Africa. These results highlight the use of MJO events to potentially predict regional-scale anomalous convection and rainfall spells over West Africa with a time lag of approximately 15-20 days.

Studies of Fault Interactions and Regional Seismicity Using Numerical Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yikilmaz, Mehmet Burak

Numerical simulations are routinely used for weather and climate forecasting. It is desirable to simulate regional seismicity for seismic hazard analysis. One such simulation tool is the Virtual California earthquake simulator. We have used Virtual California (VC) to study various aspects of fault interaction and analyzed the statistics of earthquake recurrence times and magnitudes generated synthetically. The first chapter of this dissertation investigates the behavior of seismology simulations using three relatively simple models involving a straight strike-slip fault. We show that a series of historical earthquakes observed along the Nankai Trough in Japan exhibit similar patterns to those obtained in our model II. In the second chapter we utilize Virtual California to study regional seismicity in northern California. We generate synthetic catalogs of seismicity using a composite simulation. We use these catalogs to analyze frequency-magnitude and recurrence interval statistics on both a regional and fault specific level and compare our modeled rates of seismicity and spatial variability with observations. The final chapter explores the jump distance for a propagating rupture over a stepping strike-slip fault. Our study indicates that between 2.5 and 5.5 km of the separation distance, the percentage of events that jump from one fault to the next decreases significantly. We find that these step-over distance values are in good agreement with geologically observed values.

An Intercomparison and Evaluation of Aircraft-Derived and Simulated CO from Seven Chemical Transport Models During the TRACE-P Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiley, C. M.; Fuelberg, Henry E.; Palmer, P. I.; Allen, D. J.; Carmichael, G. R.; Jacob, D. J.; Mari, C.; Pierce, R. B.; Pickering, K. E.; Tang, Y.

2002-01-01

Four global scale and three regional scale chemical transport models are intercompared and evaluated during NASA's TRACE-P experiment. Model simulated and measured CO are statistically analyzed along aircraft flight tracks. Results for the combination of eleven flights show an overall negative bias in simulated CO. Biases are most pronounced during large CO events. Statistical agreements vary greatly among the individual flights. Those flights with the greatest range of CO values tend to be the worst simulated. However, for each given flight, the models generally provide similar relative results. The models exhibit difficulties simulating intense CO plumes. CO error is found to be greatest in the lower troposphere. Convective mass flux is shown to be very important, particularly near emissions source regions. Occasionally meteorological lift associated with excessive model-calculated mass fluxes leads to an overestimation of mid- and upper- tropospheric mixing ratios. Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) depth is found to play an important role in simulating intense CO plumes. PBL depth is shown to cap plumes, confining heavy pollution to the very lowest levels.

EnsembleGraph: Interactive Visual Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Behavior for Ensemble Simulation Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shu, Qingya; Guo, Hanqi; Che, Limei

We present a novel visualization framework—EnsembleGraph— for analyzing ensemble simulation data, in order to help scientists understand behavior similarities between ensemble members over space and time. A graph-based representation is used to visualize individual spatiotemporal regions with similar behaviors, which are extracted by hierarchical clustering algorithms. A user interface with multiple-linked views is provided, which enables users to explore, locate, and compare regions that have similar behaviors between and then users can investigate and analyze the selected regions in detail. The driving application of this paper is the studies on regional emission influences over tropospheric ozone, which is based onmore » ensemble simulations conducted with different anthropogenic emission absences using the MOZART-4 (model of ozone and related tracers, version 4) model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by visualizing the MOZART-4 ensemble simulation data and evaluating the relative regional emission influences on tropospheric ozone concentrations. Positive feedbacks from domain experts and two case studies prove efficiency of our method.« less

Calibrating a forest landscape model to simulate frequent fire in Mediterranean-type shrublands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, A.D.; Yang, J.; Franklin, J.; He, H.S.; Keeley, J.E.

2007-01-01

In Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs), fire disturbance influences the distribution of most plant communities, and altered fire regimes may be more important than climate factors in shaping future MTE vegetation dynamics. Models that simulate the high-frequency fire and post-fire response strategies characteristic of these regions will be important tools for evaluating potential landscape change scenarios. However, few existing models have been designed to simulate these properties over long time frames and broad spatial scales. We refined a landscape disturbance and succession (LANDIS) model to operate on an annual time step and to simulate altered fire regimes in a southern California Mediterranean landscape. After developing a comprehensive set of spatial and non-spatial variables and parameters, we calibrated the model to simulate very high fire frequencies and evaluated the simulations under several parameter scenarios representing hypotheses about system dynamics. The goal was to ensure that observed model behavior would simulate the specified fire regime parameters, and that the predictions were reasonable based on current understanding of community dynamics in the region. After calibration, the two dominant plant functional types responded realistically to different fire regime scenarios. Therefore, this model offers a new alternative for simulating altered fire regimes in MTE landscapes. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating synoptic systems in the CMIP5 climate models over the Australian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibson, Peter B.; Uotila, Petteri; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Pitman, Andrew J.

2016-10-01

Climate models are our principal tool for generating the projections used to inform climate change policy. Our confidence in projections depends, in part, on how realistically they simulate present day climate and associated variability over a range of time scales. Traditionally, climate models are less commonly assessed at time scales relevant to daily weather systems. Here we explore the utility of a self-organizing maps (SOMs) procedure for evaluating the frequency, persistence and transitions of daily synoptic systems in the Australian region simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models. In terms of skill in simulating the climatological frequency of synoptic systems, large spread was observed between models. A positive association between all metrics was found, implying that relative skill in simulating the persistence and transitions of systems is related to skill in simulating the climatological frequency. Considering all models and metrics collectively, model performance was found to be related to model horizontal resolution but unrelated to vertical resolution or representation of the stratosphere. In terms of the SOM procedure, the timespan over which evaluation was performed had some influence on model performance skill measures, as did the number of circulation types examined. These findings have implications for selecting models most useful for future projections over the Australian region, particularly for projections related to synoptic scale processes and phenomena. More broadly, this study has demonstrated the utility of the SOMs procedure in providing a process-based evaluation of climate models.

Evaluating climate models: Should we use weather or climate observations?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oglesby, Robert J; Erickson III, David J

2009-12-01

Calling the numerical models that we use for simulations of climate change 'climate models' is a bit of a misnomer. These 'general circulation models' (GCMs, AKA global climate models) and their cousins the 'regional climate models' (RCMs) are actually physically-based weather simulators. That is, these models simulate, either globally or locally, daily weather patterns in response to some change in forcing or boundary condition. These simulated weather patterns are then aggregated into climate statistics, very much as we aggregate observations into 'real climate statistics'. Traditionally, the output of GCMs has been evaluated using climate statistics, as opposed to their abilitymore » to simulate realistic daily weather observations. At the coarse global scale this may be a reasonable approach, however, as RCM's downscale to increasingly higher resolutions, the conjunction between weather and climate becomes more problematic. We present results from a series of present-day climate simulations using the WRF ARW for domains that cover North America, much of Latin America, and South Asia. The basic domains are at a 12 km resolution, but several inner domains at 4 km have also been simulated. These include regions of complex topography in Mexico, Colombia, Peru, and Sri Lanka, as well as a region of low topography and fairly homogeneous land surface type (the U.S. Great Plains). Model evaluations are performed using standard climate analyses (e.g., reanalyses; NCDC data) but also using time series of daily station observations. Preliminary results suggest little difference in the assessment of long-term mean quantities, but the variability on seasonal and interannual timescales is better described. Furthermore, the value-added by using daily weather observations as an evaluation tool increases with the model resolution.« less

An assessment of global climate model-simulated climate for the western cordillera of Canada (1961-90)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonsal, Barrie R.; Prowse, Terry D.; Pietroniro, Alain

2003-12-01

Climate change is projected to significantly affect future hydrologic processes over many regions of the world. This is of particular importance for alpine systems that provide critical water supplies to lower-elevation regions. The western cordillera of Canada is a prime example where changes to temperature and precipitation could have profound hydro-climatic impacts not only for the cordillera itself, but also for downstream river systems and the drought-prone Canadian Prairies. At present, impact researchers primarily rely on global climate models (GCMs) for future climate projections. The main objective of this study is to assess several GCMs in their ability to simulate the magnitude and spatial variability of current (1961-90) temperature and precipitation over the western cordillera of Canada. In addition, several gridded data sets of observed climate for the study region are evaluated.Results reveal a close correspondence among the four gridded data sets of observed climate, particularly for temperature. There is, however, considerable variability regarding the various GCM simulations of this observed climate. The British, Canadian, German, Australian, and US GFDL models are superior at simulating the magnitude and spatial variability of mean temperature. The Japanese GCM is of intermediate ability, and the US NCAR model is least representative of temperature in this region. Nearly all the models substantially overestimate the magnitude of total precipitation, both annually and on a seasonal basis. An exception involves the British (Hadley) model, which best represents the observed magnitude and spatial variability of precipitation. This study improves our understanding regarding the accuracy of GCM climate simulations over the western cordillera of Canada. The findings may assist in producing more reliable future scenarios of hydro-climatic conditions over various regions of the country. Copyright

The Impact of Different Absolute Solar Irradiance Values on Current Climate Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, David H.; Lean, Judith L.; Jonas, Jeffrey

2014-01-01

Simulations of the preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates are made with the GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model 3 using two different estimates of the absolute solar irradiance value: a higher value measured by solar radiometers in the 1990s and a lower value measured recently by the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment. Each of the model simulations is adjusted to achieve global energy balance; without this adjustment the difference in irradiance produces a global temperature change of 0.48C, comparable to the cooling estimated for the Maunder Minimum. The results indicate that by altering cloud cover the model properly compensates for the different absolute solar irradiance values on a global level when simulating both preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates. On a regional level, the preindustrial climate simulations and the patterns of change with doubled CO2 concentrations are again remarkably similar, but there are some differences. Using a higher absolute solar irradiance value and the requisite cloud cover affects the model's depictions of high-latitude surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and stratospheric ozone, as well as tropical precipitation. In the climate change experiments it leads to an underestimation of North Atlantic warming, reduced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific, and smaller total ozone growth at high northern latitudes. Although significant, these differences are typically modest compared with the magnitude of the regional changes expected for doubled greenhouse gas concentrations. Nevertheless, the model simulations demonstrate that achieving the highest possible fidelity when simulating regional climate change requires that climate models use as input the most accurate (lower) solar irradiance value.

Simulations of Seismic Wave Propagation on Mars

DOE PAGES

Bozdağ, Ebru; Ruan, Youyi; Metthez, Nathan; ...

2017-03-23

In this paper, we present global and regional synthetic seismograms computed for 1D and 3D Mars models based on the spectral-element method. For global simulations, we implemented a radially-symmetric Mars model with a 110 km thick crust. For this 1D model, we successfully benchmarked the 3D seismic wave propagation solver SPECFEM3D_GLOBE against the 2D axisymmetric wave propagation solver AxiSEM at periods down to 10 s. We also present higher-resolution body-wave simulations with AxiSEM down to 1 s in a model with a more complex 1D crust, revealing wave propagation effects that would have been difficult to interpret based on raymore » theory. For 3D global simulations based on SPECFEM3D_GLOBE, we superimposed 3D crustal thickness variations capturing the distinct crustal dichotomy between Mars’ northern and southern hemispheres, as well as topography, ellipticity, gravity, and rotation. The global simulations clearly indicate that the 3D crust speeds up body waves compared to the reference 1D model, whereas it significantly changes surface waveforms and their dispersive character depending on its thickness. We also perform regional simulations with the solver SES3D based on 3D crustal models derived from surface composition, thereby addressing the effects of various distinct crustal features down to 2 s. The regional simulations confirm the strong effects of crustal variations on waveforms. Finally, we conclude that the numerical tools are ready for examining more scenarios, including various other seismic models and sources.« less

Simulations of Seismic Wave Propagation on Mars

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bozdağ, Ebru; Ruan, Youyi; Metthez, Nathan

In this paper, we present global and regional synthetic seismograms computed for 1D and 3D Mars models based on the spectral-element method. For global simulations, we implemented a radially-symmetric Mars model with a 110 km thick crust. For this 1D model, we successfully benchmarked the 3D seismic wave propagation solver SPECFEM3D_GLOBE against the 2D axisymmetric wave propagation solver AxiSEM at periods down to 10 s. We also present higher-resolution body-wave simulations with AxiSEM down to 1 s in a model with a more complex 1D crust, revealing wave propagation effects that would have been difficult to interpret based on raymore » theory. For 3D global simulations based on SPECFEM3D_GLOBE, we superimposed 3D crustal thickness variations capturing the distinct crustal dichotomy between Mars’ northern and southern hemispheres, as well as topography, ellipticity, gravity, and rotation. The global simulations clearly indicate that the 3D crust speeds up body waves compared to the reference 1D model, whereas it significantly changes surface waveforms and their dispersive character depending on its thickness. We also perform regional simulations with the solver SES3D based on 3D crustal models derived from surface composition, thereby addressing the effects of various distinct crustal features down to 2 s. The regional simulations confirm the strong effects of crustal variations on waveforms. Finally, we conclude that the numerical tools are ready for examining more scenarios, including various other seismic models and sources.« less

Simulation of ground-water flow in the Saginaw Aquifer, Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham counties, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holtschlag, David J.; Luukkonen, Carol L.; Nicholas, J.R.

1996-01-01

A numerical model was developed to simulate ground-water flow in the Tri-County region, which consists of Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham Counties, Michigan. This region includes a nine-township area surrounding Lansing, Michigan. The model simulates the regional response of the Saginaw aquifer to major groundwater withdrawals associated with public-supply wells. The Saginaw aquifer, which is in the Grand River and Saginaw Formations of Pennsylvanian age, is the primary source of ground water for Tri-County residents. The Saginaw aquifer is overlain by glacial deposits, which also are important ground-water sources in some locations. Flow in the Saginaw aquifer and the glacial deposits is simulated by discretizing the flow system into model cells arranged in two layers. Each cell, which corresponds to a land area of 0.0625 square mile, represents the locally averaged properties of the system. The spatial variation of hydraulic properties controlling ground-water flow was estimated by geostatistical analysis of 4,947 well logs. Parameter estimation, a form of nonlinear regression, was used to calibrate the flow model. Results of steady-state ground-water-flow simulations show close agreement between water flowing into and out of the model area for 1992 pumping conditions; standard error of the difference between simulated and measured heads is 14.7 feet. Simulation results for three alternative pumping scenarios for the year 2020 show that the glacial aquifer could be dewatered in places if hypothetical increases in pumping are not distributed throughout the Tri-County region. Contributing areas to public-supply wells in the nine-township area were delineated by a particle-tracking analysis. These areas cover about 121 square miles. Contributing areas for particles having travel times of 40 years or less cover about 42 square miles. Results of tritium sampling support results of model simulations to delineate contributing areas.

Comparison of Thunderstorm Simulations from WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW Models over East Indian Region

PubMed Central

Litta, A. J.; Mary Ididcula, Sumam; Mohanty, U. C.; Kiran Prasad, S.

2012-01-01

The thunderstorms are typical mesoscale systems dominated by intense convection. Mesoscale models are essential for the accurate prediction of such high-impact weather events. In the present study, an attempt has been made to compare the simulated results of three thunderstorm events using NMM and ARW model core of WRF system and validated the model results with observations. Both models performed well in capturing stability indices which are indicators of severe convective activity. Comparison of model-simulated radar reflectivity imageries with observations revealed that NMM model has simulated well the propagation of the squall line, while the squall line movement was slow in ARW. From the model-simulated spatial plots of cloud top temperature, we can see that NMM model has better captured the genesis, intensification, and propagation of thunder squall than ARW model. The statistical analysis of rainfall indicates the better performance of NMM than ARW. Comparison of model-simulated thunderstorm affected parameters with that of the observed showed that NMM has performed better than ARW in capturing the sharp rise in humidity and drop in temperature. This suggests that NMM model has the potential to provide unique and valuable information for severe thunderstorm forecasters over east Indian region. PMID:22645480

Experimental identification of a comb-shaped chaotic region in multiple parameter spaces simulated by the Hindmarsh—Rose neuron model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Bing

2014-03-01

A comb-shaped chaotic region has been simulated in multiple two-dimensional parameter spaces using the Hindmarsh—Rose (HR) neuron model in many recent studies, which can interpret almost all of the previously simulated bifurcation processes with chaos in neural firing patterns. In the present paper, a comb-shaped chaotic region in a two-dimensional parameter space was reproduced, which presented different processes of period-adding bifurcations with chaos with changing one parameter and fixed the other parameter at different levels. In the biological experiments, different period-adding bifurcation scenarios with chaos by decreasing the extra-cellular calcium concentration were observed from some neural pacemakers at different levels of extra-cellular 4-aminopyridine concentration and from other pacemakers at different levels of extra-cellular caesium concentration. By using the nonlinear time series analysis method, the deterministic dynamics of the experimental chaotic firings were investigated. The period-adding bifurcations with chaos observed in the experiments resembled those simulated in the comb-shaped chaotic region using the HR model. The experimental results show that period-adding bifurcations with chaos are preserved in different two-dimensional parameter spaces, which provides evidence of the existence of the comb-shaped chaotic region and a demonstration of the simulation results in different two-dimensional parameter spaces in the HR neuron model. The results also present relationships between different firing patterns in two-dimensional parameter spaces.

Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, Nevada and California -- hydrogeologic framework and transient ground-water flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belcher, Wayne R.

2004-01-01

A numerical three-dimensional (3D) transient ground-water flow model of the Death Valley region was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey for the U.S. Department of Energy programs at the Nevada Test Site and at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Decades of study of aspects of the ground-water flow system and previous less extensive ground-water flow models were incorporated and reevaluated together with new data to provide greater detail for the complex, digital model. A 3D digital hydrogeologic framework model (HFM) was developed from digital elevation models, geologic maps, borehole information, geologic and hydrogeologic cross sections, and other 3D models to represent the geometry of the hydrogeologic units (HGUs). Structural features, such as faults and fractures, that affect ground-water flow also were added. The HFM represents Precambrian and Paleozoic crystalline and sedimentary rocks, Mesozoic sedimentary rocks, Mesozoic to Cenozoic intrusive rocks, Cenozoic volcanic tuffs and lavas, and late Cenozoic sedimentary deposits of the Death Valley Regional Ground-Water Flow System (DVRFS) region in 27 HGUs. Information from a series of investigations was compiled to conceptualize and quantify hydrologic components of the ground-water flow system within the DVRFS model domain and to provide hydraulic-property and head-observation data used in the calibration of the transient-flow model. These studies reevaluated natural ground-water discharge occurring through evapotranspiration and spring flow; the history of ground-water pumping from 1913 through 1998; ground-water recharge simulated as net infiltration; model boundary inflows and outflows based on regional hydraulic gradients and water budgets of surrounding areas; hydraulic conductivity and its relation to depth; and water levels appropriate for regional simulation of prepumped and pumped conditions within the DVRFS model domain. Simulation results appropriate for the regional extent and scale of the model were provided by acquiring additional data, by reevaluating existing data using current technology and concepts, and by refining earlier interpretations to reflect the current understanding of the regional ground-water flow system. Ground-water flow in the Death Valley region is composed of several interconnected, complex ground-water flow systems. Ground-water flow occurs in three subregions in relatively shallow and localized flow paths that are superimposed on deeper, regional flow paths. Regional ground-water flow is predominantly through a thick Paleozoic carbonate rock sequence affected by complex geologic structures from regional faulting and fracturing that can enhance or impede flow. Spring flow and evapotranspiration (ET) are the dominant natural ground-water discharge processes. Ground water also is withdrawn for agricultural, commercial, and domestic uses. Ground-water flow in the DVRFS was simulated using MODFLOW-2000, a 3D finite-difference modular ground-water flow modeling code that incorporates a nonlinear least-squares regression technique to estimate aquifer parameters. The DVRFS model has 16 layers of defined thickness, a finite-difference grid consisting of 194 rows and 160 columns, and uniform cells 1,500 m on each side. Prepumping conditions (before 1913) were used as the initial conditions for the transient-state calibration. The model uses annual stress periods with discrete recharge and discharge components. Recharge occurs mostly from infiltration of precipitation and runoff on high mountain ranges and from a small amount of underflow from adjacent basins. Discharge occurs primarily through ET and spring discharge (both simulated as drains) and water withdrawal by pumping and, to a lesser amount, by underflow to adjacent basins, also simulated by drains. All parameter values estimated by the regression are reasonable and within the range of expected values. The simulated hydraulic heads of the final calibrated transient model gener

Signal to noise quantification of regional climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, S.; Rupp, D. E.; Mote, P.

2016-12-01

One of the biggest challenges in interpreting climate model outputs for impacts studies and adaptation planning is understanding the sources of disagreement among models (which is often used imperfectly as a stand-in for system uncertainty). Internal variability is a primary source of uncertainty in climate projections, especially for precipitation, for which models disagree about even the sign of changes in large areas like the continental US. Taking advantage of a large initial-condition ensemble of regional climate simulations, this study quantifies the magnitude of changes forced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations relative to internal variability. Results come from a large initial-condition ensemble of regional climate model simulations generated by weather@home, a citizen science computing platform, where the western United States climate was simulated for the recent past (1985-2014) and future (2030-2059) using a 25-km horizontal resolution regional climate model (HadRM3P) nested in global atmospheric model (HadAM3P). We quantify grid point level signal-to-noise not just in temperature and precipitation responses, but also the energy and moisture flux terms that are related to temperature and precipitation responses, to provide important insights regarding uncertainty in climate change projections at local and regional scales. These results will aid modelers in determining appropriate ensemble sizes for different climate variables and help users of climate model output with interpreting climate model projections.

Modeling methane emissions by cattle production systems in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castelan-Ortega, O. A.; Ku Vera, J.; Molina, L. T.

2013-12-01

Methane emissions from livestock is one of the largest sources of methane in Mexico. The purpose of the present paper is to provide a realistic estimate of the national inventory of methane produced by the enteric fermentation of cattle, based on an integrated simulation model, and to provide estimates of CH4 produced by cattle fed typical diets from the tropical and temperate climates of Mexico. The Mexican cattle population of 23.3 million heads was divided in two groups. The first group (7.8 million heads), represents cattle of the tropical climate regions. The second group (15.5 million heads), are the cattle in the temperate climate regions. This approach allows incorporating the effect of diet on CH4 production into the analysis because the quality of forages is lower in the tropics than in temperate regions. Cattle population in every group was subdivided into two categories: cows (COW) and other type of cattle (OTHE), which included calves, heifers, steers and bulls. The daily CH4 production by each category of animal along an average production cycle of 365 days was simulated, instead of using a default emission factor as in Tier 1 approach. Daily milk yield, live weight changes associated with the lactation, and dry matter intake, were simulated for the entire production cycle. The Moe and Tyrrell (1979) model was used to simulate CH4 production for the COW category, the linear model of Mills et al. (2003) for the OTHE category in temperate regions and the Kurihara et al. (1999) model for the OTHE category in the tropical regions as it has been developed for cattle fed tropical diets. All models were integrated with a cow submodel to form an Integrated Simulation Model (ISM). The AFRC (1993) equations and the lactation curve model of Morant and Gnanasakthy (1989) were used to construct the cow submodel. The ISM simulates on a daily basis the CH4 production, milk yield, live weight changes associated with lactation and dry matter intake. The total daily CH4 emission per region was calculated by multiplying the number of heads of cattle in each region by their corresponding simulated emission factor, either COW or OTHE, as predicted by the ISM. The total CH4 emissions from the Mexican cattle population was then calculated by adding up the daily emissions from each region. The predicted total emission of methane produced by the 23.3 million heads of cattle in Mexico is approximately 2.02 Tg/year, from which 1.28 Tg is produced by cattle in temperate regions and the rest by cattle in the tropics. It was concluded that the modeling approach was suitable in producing a better estimate of the national methane inventory for cattle. It is flexible enough to incorporate more cattle groups or classification schemes and productivity levels.

How consistent are precipitation patterns predicted by GCMs in the absence of cloud radiative effects?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popke, Dagmar; Bony, Sandrine; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Stevens, Bjorn

2015-04-01

Model simulations with state-of-the-art general circulation models reveal a strong disagreement concerning the simulated regional precipitation patterns and their changes with warming. The deviating precipitation response even persists when reducing the model experiment complexity to aquaplanet simulation with forced sea surface temperatures (Stevens and Bony, 2013). To assess feedbacks between clouds and radiation on precipitation responses we analyze data from 5 models performing the aquaplanet simulations of the Clouds On Off Klima Intercomparison Experiment (COOKIE), where the interaction of clouds and radiation is inhibited. Although cloud radiative effects are then disabled, the precipitation patterns among models are as diverse as with cloud radiative effects switched on. Disentangling differing model responses in such simplified experiments thus appears to be key to better understanding the simulated regional precipitation in more standard configurations. By analyzing the local moisture and moist static energy budgets in the COOKIE experiments we investigate likely causes for the disagreement among models. References Stevens, B. & S. Bony: What Are Climate Models Missing?, Science, 2013, 340, 1053-1054

Impact of lakes and wetlands on present and future boreal climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poutou, E.; Krinner, G.; Genthon, C.

2002-12-01

Impact of lakes and wetlands on present and future boreal climate The role of lakes and wetlands in present-day high latitude climate is quantified using a general circulation model of the atmosphere. The atmospheric model includes a lake module which is presented and validated. Seasonal and spatial wetland distribution is calculated as a function of the hydrological budget of the wetlands themselves and of continental soil whose runoff feeds them. Wetland extent is simulated and discussed both in simulations forced by observed climate and in general circulation model simulations. In off-line simulations, forced by ECMWF reanalyses, the lake model simulates correctly observed lake ice durations, while the wetland extent is somewhat underestimated in the boreal regions. Coupled to the general circulation model, the lake model yields satisfying ice durations, although the climate model biases have impacts on the modeled lake ice conditions. Boreal wetland extents are overestimated in the general circulation model as simulated precipitation is too high. The impact of inundated surfaces on the simulated climate is strongest in summer when these surfaces are ice-free. Wetlands seem to play a more important role than lakes in cooling the boreal regions in summer and in humidifying the atmosphere. The role of lakes and wetlands in future climate change is evaluated by analyzing simulations of present and future climate with and without prescribed inland water bodies.

Two case studies on NARCCAP precipitation extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, Grant B.; Cooley, Daniel; Sain, Stephan R.; Bukovsky, Melissa S.; Mearns, Linda O.

2013-09-01

We introduce novel methodology to examine the ability of six regional climate models (RCMs) in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) ensemble to simulate past extreme precipitation events seen in the observational record over two different regions and seasons. Our primary objective is to examine the strength of daily correspondence of extreme precipitation events between observations and the output of both the RCMs and the driving reanalysis product. To explore this correspondence, we employ methods from multivariate extreme value theory. These methods require that we account for marginal behavior, and we first model and compare climatological quantities which describe tail behavior of daily precipitation for both the observations and model output before turning attention to quantifying the correspondence of the extreme events. Daily precipitation in a West Coast region of North America is analyzed in two seasons, and it is found that the simulated extreme events from the reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models exhibit strong daily correspondence to extreme events in the observational record. Precipitation over a central region of the United States is examined, and we find some daily correspondence between winter extremes simulated by reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models and those seen in observations, but no such correspondence is found for summer extremes. Furthermore, we find greater discrepancies among the NARCCAP models in the tail characteristics of the distribution of daily summer precipitation over this region than seen in precipitation over the West Coast region. We find that the models which employ spectral nudging exhibit stronger tail dependence to observations in the central region.

Global Famine after a Regional Nuclear War

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robock, A.; Xia, L.; Mills, M. J.; Stenke, A.; Helfand, I.

2014-12-01

A regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan, using 100 15-kt atomic bombs, could inject 5 Tg of soot into the upper troposphere from fires started in urban and industrial areas. Simulations by three different general circulation models, GISS ModelE, WACCM, and SOCOL, all agree that global surface temperature would decrease by 1 to 2°C for 5 to 10 years, and have major impacts on precipitation and solar radiation reaching Earth's surface. Local summer climate changes over land would be larger. Using the DSSAT crop simulation model forced by these three global climate model simulations, we investigate the impacts on agricultural production in China, the largest grain producer in the world. In the first year after the regional nuclear war, a cooler, drier, and darker environment would reduce annual rice production by 23 Mt (24%), maize production by 41 Mt (23%), and wheat production by 23 Mt (50%). This reduction of food availability would continue, with gradually decreasing amplitude, for more than a decade. Results from simulations in other major grain producing regions produce similar results. Thus a nuclear war using much less than 1% of the current global arsenal could produce a global food crisis and put a billion people at risk of famine.

Co-variation of Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP5 Models and Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Chunlei; Allan, Richard P.; Huffman, George J.

2013-01-01

Current variability of precipitation (P) and its response to surface temperature (T) are analysed using coupled (CMIP5) and atmosphere-only (AMIP5) climate model simulations and compared with observational estimates.There is striking agreement between Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observed and AMIP5)simulated P anomalies over land both globally and in the tropics suggesting that prescribed sea surface temperature and realistic radiative forcings are sufficient for simulating the interannual variability in continental P. Differences between the observed and simulated P variability over the ocean, originate primarily from the wet tropical regions, in particular the western Pacific, but are reduced slightly after 1995. All datasets show positive responses of P to T globally of around 2 % K for simulations and 3-4 % K in GPCP observations but model responses over the tropical oceans are around 3 times smaller than GPCP over the period 1988-2005. The observed anticorrelation between land and ocean P, linked with El Nio Southern Oscillation, is captured by the simulations. All data sets over the tropical ocean show a tendency for wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier with warming. Over the wet region (greater than or equal to 75 precipitation percentile), the precipitation response is 13-15%K for GPCP and 5%K for models while trends in P are 2.4% decade for GPCP, 0.6% decade for CMIP5 and 0.9decade for AMIP5 suggesting that models are underestimating the precipitation responses or a deficiency exists in the satellite datasets.

Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region: Modeled Productivity in Permafrost Regions

DOE PAGES

Xia, Jianyang; McGuire, A. David; Lawrence, David; ...

2017-01-26

Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 ± 6 g C m -2 yr -1), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g C m -2 yr -1) over the permafrost region during 2000–2009.more » By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982–2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800 g C m -2 yr -1), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPP max). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C (Vc max_25), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. In conclusion, these results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPP max as well as their sensitivity to climate change.« less

Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region: Modeled Productivity in Permafrost Regions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xia, Jianyang; McGuire, A. David; Lawrence, David

Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 ± 6 g C m -2 yr -1), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g C m -2 yr -1) over the permafrost region during 2000–2009.more » By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982–2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800 g C m -2 yr -1), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPP max). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C (Vc max_25), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. In conclusion, these results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPP max as well as their sensitivity to climate change.« less

Performance evaluation of a non-hydrostatic regional climate model over the Mediterranean/Black Sea area and climate projections for the XXI century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercogliano, Paola; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Montesarchio, Myriam; Zollo, Alessandra Lucia

2013-04-01

In the framework of the Work Package 4 (Developing integrated tools for environmental assessment) of PERSEUS Project, high resolution climate simulations have been performed, with the aim of furthering knowledge in the field of climate variability at regional scale, its causes and impacts. CMCC is a no profit centre whose aims are the promotion, research coordination and scientific activities in the field of climate changes. In this work, we show results of numerical simulation performed over a very wide area (13W-46E; 29-56N) at spatial resolution of 14 km, which includes the Mediterranean and Black Seas, using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. It is a non-hydrostatic model for the simulation of atmospheric processes, developed by the DWD-Germany for weather forecast services; successively, the model has been updated by the CLM-Community, in order to develop climatic applications. It is the only documented numerical model system in Europe designed for spatial resolutions down to 1 km with a range of applicability encompassing operational numerical weather prediction, regional climate modelling the dispersion of trace gases and aerosol and idealised studies and applicable in all regions of the world for a wide range of available climate simulations from global climate and NWP models. Different reasons justify the development of a regional model: the first is the increasing number of works in literature asserting that regional models have also the features to provide more detailed description of the climate extremes, that are often more important then their mean values for natural and human systems. The second one is that high resolution modelling shows adequate features to provide information for impact assessment studies. At CMCC, regional climate modelling is a part of an integrated simulation system and it has been used in different European and African projects to provide qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the hydrogeological and public health risks. A simulation covering the period 1971-2000 and driven by ERA40 reanalysis has been performed, in order to assess the capability of the model to reproduce the present climate, with "perfect boundary conditions". A comparison, in terms of 2-metre temperature and precipitation, with EOBS dataset will be shown and discussed, in order to analyze the capabilities in simulating the main features of the observed climate over a wide area, at high spatial resolution. Then, a comparison between the results of COSMO-CLM driven by the global model CMCC-MED (whose atmospheric component is ECHAM5) and by ERA40 will be provided for a characterization of the errors induced by the global model. Finally, climate projections on the examined area for the XXI century, considering the RCP4.5 emission scenario for the future, will be provided. In this work a special emphasis will be issued to the analysis of the capability to reproduce not only the average climate trend but also extremes of the present and future climate, in terms of temperature, precipitation and wind.

Assessment of temperature and precipitation over Mediterranean Area and Black Sea with non hydrostatic high resolution regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercogliano, P.; Montesarchio, M.; Zollo, A.; Bucchignani, E.

2012-12-01

In the framework of the Italian GEMINA Project (program of expansion and development of the Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change (CMCC), high resolution climate simulations have been performed, with the aim of furthering knowledge in the field of climate variability at regional scale, its causes and impacts. CMCC is a no profit centre whose aims are the promotion, research coordination and scientific activities in the field of climate changes. In this work, we show results of numerical simulation performed over a very wide area (13W-46E; 29-56N) at spatial resolution of 14 km, which includes all the Mediterranean Sea, using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. It is a non-hydrostatic model for the simulation of atmospheric processes, developed by the DWD-Germany for weather forecast services; successively, the model has been updated by the CLM-Community, in order to develop climatic applications. It is the only documented numerical model system in Europe designed for spatial resolutions down to 1 km with a range of applicability encompassing operational numerical weather prediction, regional climate modelling the dispersion of trace gases and aerosol and idealised studies and applicable in all regions of the world for a wide range of available climate simulations from global climate and NWP models. Different reasons justify the development of a regional model: the first is the increasing number of works in literature asserting that regional models have also the features to provide more detailed description of the climate extremes, that are often more important then their mean values for natural and human systems. The second one is that high resolution modelling shows adequate features to provide information for impact assessment studies. At CMCC, regional climate modelling is a part of an integrated simulation system and it has been used in different European and African projects to provide qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the hydrogeological and public health risks. A simulation covering the period 1971-2000 and driven by ERA40 reanalysis has been performed, in order to assess the capability of the model to reproduce the present climate, with "perfect boundary conditions". A comparison, in terms of 2-metre temperature and precipitation, with EOBS dataset will be shown and discussed, in order to analyze the capabilities in simulating the main features of the observed climate over a wide area, at high spatial resolution. Then, a comparison between the results of COSMO-CLM driven by the global model CMCC-MED (whose atmospheric component is ECHAM5) and by ERA40 will be provided for a characterization of the errors induced by the global model. Finally, climate projections on the examined area for the XXI century, considering the RCP4.5 emission scenario for the future, will be provided. In this work a special emphasis will be issued to the analysis of the capability to reproduce not only the average climate patterns but also extremes of the present and future climate, in terms of temperature, precipitation and wind.

Evaluating Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity to Land and Soil Conditions Representative of Karst Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Christopher M.; Fan, Xingang; Mahmood, Rezaul; Groves, Chris; Polk, Jason S.; Yan, Jun

2018-03-01

Due to their particular physiographic, geomorphic, soil cover, and complex surface-subsurface hydrologic conditions, karst regions produce distinct land-atmosphere interactions. It has been found that floods and droughts over karst regions can be more pronounced than those in non-karst regions following a given rainfall event. Five convective weather events are simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model to explore the potential impacts of land-surface conditions on weather simulations over karst regions. Since no existing weather or climate model has the ability to represent karst landscapes, simulation experiments in this exploratory study consist of a control (default land-cover/soil types) and three land-surface conditions, including barren ground, forest, and sandy soils over the karst areas, which mimic certain karst characteristics. Results from sensitivity experiments are compared with the control simulation, as well as with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction multi-sensor precipitation analysis Stage-IV data, and near-surface atmospheric observations. Mesoscale features of surface energy partition, surface water and energy exchange, the resulting surface-air temperature and humidity, and low-level instability and convective energy are analyzed to investigate the potential land-surface impact on weather over karst regions. We conclude that: (1) barren ground used over karst regions has a pronounced effect on the overall simulation of precipitation. Barren ground provides the overall lowest root-mean-square errors and bias scores in precipitation over the peak-rain periods. Contingency table-based equitable threat and frequency bias scores suggest that the barren and forest experiments are more successful in simulating light to moderate rainfall. Variables dependent on local surface conditions show stronger contrasts between karst and non-karst regions than variables dominated by large-scale synoptic systems; (2) significant sensitivity responses are found over the karst regions, including pronounced warming and cooling effects on the near-surface atmosphere from barren and forested land cover, respectively; (3) the barren ground in the karst regions provides conditions favourable for convective development under certain conditions. Therefore, it is suggested that karst and non-karst landscapes should be distinguished, and their physical processes should be considered for future model development.

Impact of dynamical regionalization on precipitation biases and teleconnections over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómara, Iñigo; Mohino, Elsa; Losada, Teresa; Domínguez, Marta; Suárez-Moreno, Roberto; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén

2018-06-01

West African societies are highly dependent on the West African Monsoon (WAM). Thus, a correct representation of the WAM in climate models is of paramount importance. In this article, the ability of 8 CMIP5 historical General Circulation Models (GCMs) and 4 CORDEX-Africa Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to characterize the WAM dynamics and variability is assessed for the period July-August-September 1979-2004. Simulations are compared with observations. Uncertainties in RCM performance and lateral boundary conditions are assessed individually. Results show that both GCMs and RCMs have trouble to simulate the northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in boreal summer. The greatest bias improvements are obtained after regionalization of the most inaccurate GCM simulations. To assess WAM variability, a Maximum Covariance Analysis is performed between Sea Surface Temperature and precipitation anomalies in observations, GCM and RCM simulations. The assessed variability patterns are: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the eastern Mediterranean (MED); and the Atlantic Equatorial Mode (EM). Evidence is given that regionalization of the ENSO-WAM teleconnection does not provide any added value. Unlike GCMs, RCMs are unable to precisely represent the ENSO impact on air subsidence over West Africa. Contrastingly, the simulation of the MED-WAM teleconnection is improved after regionalization. Humidity advection and convergence over the Sahel area are better simulated by RCMs. Finally, no robust conclusions can be determined for the EM-WAM teleconnection, which cannot be isolated for the 1979-2004 period. The novel results in this article will help to select the most appropriate RCM simulations to study WAM teleconnections.

Simulation of streamflow in small drainage basins in the southern Yampa River basin, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parker, R.S.; Norris, J.M.

1989-01-01

Coal mining operations in northwestern Colorado commonly are located in areas that have minimal available water-resource information. Drainage-basin models can be a method for extending water-resource information to include periods for which there are no records or to transfer the information to areas that have no streamflow-gaging stations. To evaluate the magnitude and variability of the components of the water balance in the small drainage basins monitored, and to provide some method for transfer of hydrologic data, the U.S. Geological Survey 's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was used for small drainage basins in the southern Yampa River basin to simulate daily mean streamflow using daily precipitation and air-temperature data. The study area was divided into three hydrologic regions, and in each of these regions, three drainage basins were monitored. Two of the drainage basins in each region were used to calibrate the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The model was not calibrated for the third drainage basin in each region; instead, parameter values were transferred from the model that was calibrated for the two drainage basins. For all of the drainage basins except one, period of record used for calibration and verification included water years 1976-81. Simulated annual volumes of streamflow for drainage basins used in calibration compared well with observed values; individual hydrographs indicated timing differences between the observed and simulated daily mean streamflow. Observed and simulated annual average streamflows compared well for the periods of record, but values of simulated high and low streamflows were different than observed values. Similar results were obtained when calibrated model parameter values were transferred to drainage basins that were uncalibrated. (USGS)

Comparison of simulated and reconstructed variations in East African hydroclimate over the last millennium

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klein, Francois; Goosse, Hugues; Graham, Nicholas E.

The multi-decadal to centennial hydroclimate changes in East Africa over the last millennium are studied by comparing the results of forced transient simulations by six general circulation models (GCMs) with published hydroclimate reconstructions from four lakes: Challa and Naivasha in equatorial East Africa, and Masoko and Malawi in southeastern inter-tropical Africa. All GCMs simulate fairly well the unimodal seasonal cycle of precipitation in the Masoko–Malawi region, while the bimodal seasonal cycle characterizing the Challa–Naivasha region is generally less well captured by most models. Model results and lake-based hydroclimate reconstructions display very different temporal patterns over the last millennium. Additionally, theremore » is no common signal among the model time series, at least until 1850. This suggests that simulated hydroclimate fluctuations are mostly driven by internal variability rather than by common external forcing. After 1850, half of the models simulate a relatively clear response to forcing, but this response is different between the models. Overall, the link between precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the pre-industrial portion of the last millennium is stronger and more robust for the Challa–Naivasha region than for the Masoko–Malawi region. At the inter-annual timescale, last-millennium Challa–Naivasha precipitation is positively (negatively) correlated with western (eastern) Indian Ocean SST, while the influence of the Pacific Ocean appears weak and unclear. Although most often not significant, the same pattern of correlations between East African rainfall and the Indian Ocean SST is still visible when using the last-millennium time series smoothed to highlight centennial variability, but only in fixed-forcing simulations. Furthermore, this means that, at the centennial timescale, the effect of (natural) climate forcing can mask the imprint of internal climate variability in large-scale teleconnections.« less

Comparison of simulated and reconstructed variations in East African hydroclimate over the last millennium

DOE PAGES

Klein, Francois; Goosse, Hugues; Graham, Nicholas E.; ...

2016-07-13

The multi-decadal to centennial hydroclimate changes in East Africa over the last millennium are studied by comparing the results of forced transient simulations by six general circulation models (GCMs) with published hydroclimate reconstructions from four lakes: Challa and Naivasha in equatorial East Africa, and Masoko and Malawi in southeastern inter-tropical Africa. All GCMs simulate fairly well the unimodal seasonal cycle of precipitation in the Masoko–Malawi region, while the bimodal seasonal cycle characterizing the Challa–Naivasha region is generally less well captured by most models. Model results and lake-based hydroclimate reconstructions display very different temporal patterns over the last millennium. Additionally, theremore » is no common signal among the model time series, at least until 1850. This suggests that simulated hydroclimate fluctuations are mostly driven by internal variability rather than by common external forcing. After 1850, half of the models simulate a relatively clear response to forcing, but this response is different between the models. Overall, the link between precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the pre-industrial portion of the last millennium is stronger and more robust for the Challa–Naivasha region than for the Masoko–Malawi region. At the inter-annual timescale, last-millennium Challa–Naivasha precipitation is positively (negatively) correlated with western (eastern) Indian Ocean SST, while the influence of the Pacific Ocean appears weak and unclear. Although most often not significant, the same pattern of correlations between East African rainfall and the Indian Ocean SST is still visible when using the last-millennium time series smoothed to highlight centennial variability, but only in fixed-forcing simulations. Furthermore, this means that, at the centennial timescale, the effect of (natural) climate forcing can mask the imprint of internal climate variability in large-scale teleconnections.« less

Wake Numerical Simulation Based on the Park-Gauss Model and Considering Atmospheric Stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiangsheng; Zhao, Ning; Tian, Linlin; Zhu, Jun

2016-06-01

In this paper, a new Park-Gauss model based on the assumption of the Park model and the Eddy-viscosity model is investigated to conduct the wake numerical simulation for solving a single wind turbine problem. The initial wake radius has been modified to improve the model’s numerical accuracy. Then the impact of the atmospheric stability based on the Park-Gauss model has been studied in the wake region. By the comparisons and the analyses of the test results, it turns out that the new Park-Gauss model could achieve better effects of the wind velocity simulation in the wake region. The wind velocity in the wake region recovers quickly under the unstable atmospheric condition provided the wind velocity is closest to the test result, and recovers slowly under stable atmospheric condition in case of the wind velocity is lower than the test result. Meanwhile, the wind velocity recovery falls in between the unstable and stable neutral atmospheric conditions.

Simulations and Evaluation of Mesoscale Convective Systems in a Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chern, J. D.; Tao, W. K.

2017-12-01

It is well known that the mesoscale convective systems (MCS) produce more than 50% of rainfall in most tropical regions and play important roles in regional and global water cycles. Simulation of MCSs in global and climate models is a very challenging problem. Typical MCSs have horizontal scale of a few hundred kilometers. Models with a domain of several hundred kilometers and fine enough resolution to properly simulate individual clouds are required to realistically simulate MCSs. The multiscale modeling framework (MMF), which replaces traditional cloud parameterizations with cloud-resolving models (CRMs) within a host atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), has shown some capabilities of simulating organized MCS-like storm signals and propagations. However, its embedded CRMs typically have small domain (less than 128 km) and coarse resolution ( 4 km) that cannot realistically simulate MCSs and individual clouds. In this study, a series of simulations were performed using the Goddard MMF. The impacts of the domain size and model grid resolution of the embedded CRMs on simulating MCSs are examined. The changes of cloud structure, occurrence, and properties such as cloud types, updraft and downdraft, latent heating profile, and cold pool strength in the embedded CRMs are examined in details. The simulated MCS characteristics are evaluated against satellite measurements using the Goddard Satellite Data Simulator Unit. The results indicate that embedded CRMs with large domain and fine resolution tend to produce better simulations compared to those simulations with typical MMF configuration (128 km domain size and 4 km model grid spacing).

Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over homogeneous regions of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patwardhan, Savita; Kulkarni, Ashwini; Rao, K. Koteswara

2018-01-01

The impact of climate change on the characteristics of seasonal maximum and minimum temperature and seasonal summer monsoon rainfall is assessed over five homogeneous regions of India using a high-resolution regional climate model. Providing REgional Climate for Climate Studies (PRECIS) is developed at Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK. The model simulations are carried out over South Asian domain for the continuous period of 1961-2098 at 50-km horizontal resolution. Here, three simulations from a 17-member perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) produced using HadCM3 under the Quantifying Model Uncertainties in Model Predictions (QUMP) project of Hadley Centre, Met. Office, UK, have been used as lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) for the 138-year simulations of the regional climate model under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. The projections indicate the increase in the summer monsoon (June through September) rainfall over all the homogeneous regions (15 to 19%) except peninsular India (around 5%). There may be marginal change in the frequency of medium and heavy rainfall events (>20 mm) towards the end of the present century. The analysis over five homogeneous regions indicates that the mean maximum surface air temperatures for the pre-monsoon season (March-April-May) as well as the mean minimum surface air temperature for winter season (January-February) may be warmer by around 4 °C towards the end of the twenty-first century.

Mesoscale Convective Systems in SCSMEX: Simulated by a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud Resolving Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Wang, Y.; Qian, I.; Lau, W.; Shie, C.-L.; Starr, David (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation (RELACS) System is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model with improved physical processes, in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water and energy cycles in Indo-China/ South China Sea (SCS)/China, N. America and S. America. The Penn State/NCAR MM5 atmospheric modeling system, a state of the art atmospheric numerical model designed to simulate regional weather and climate, has been successfully coupled to the Goddard Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-C loud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. PLACE allows for the effects of vegetation, and thus important physical processes such as evapotranspiration and interception are included. The PLACE model incorporates vegetation type and has been shown in international comparisons to accurately predict evapotranspiration and runoff over a wide variety of land surfaces. The coupling of MM5 and PLACE creates a numerical modeling system with the potential to more realistically simulate the atmosphere and land surface processes including land-sea interaction, regional circulations such as monsoons, and flash flood events. RELACS has been used to simulate the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1986, 1997 and 1998. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences have been performed. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the S. China Sea. CPSs can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. RELACS has also been used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Yantz River during 1998. The exact location (region) of the flooding can be effected by the soil-rainfall feedback. Also, the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model which allows for realistic moist processes as well as explicit interactions between cloud and radiation, and cloud and surface processes will be used to simulate convective systems associated with the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1998. The GCE model also includes the same PLACE and radiation scheme used in the RELACS. A detailed comparison between the results from the GCE model and RELACS will be performed.

Mesoscale Convective Systems in SCSMEX: Simulated by a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud Resolving Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Wang, Y.; Lau, W.; Jia, Y.; Johnson, D.; Shie, C.-L.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation (RELACS) System is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model with improved physical processes, in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water and energy cycles in Indo-China/South China Sea (SCS)/China, North America and South America. The Penn State/NCAR MM5 atmospheric modeling system, a state of the art atmospheric numerical model designed to simulate regional weather and climate, has been successfully coupled to the Goddard Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model, PLACE allows for the effect A vegetation, and thus important physical processes such as evapotranspiration and interception are included. The PLACE model incorporates vegetation type and has been shown in international comparisons to accurately predict evapotranspiration and runoff over a wide variety of land surfaces. The coupling of MM5 and PLACE creates a numerical modeling system with the potential to more realistically simulate the atmosphere and land surface processes including land-sea interaction, regional circulations such as monsoons, and flash flood events. RELACS has been used to simulate the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1986, 1991 and 1998. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences have been performed. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the South China Sea. CPSs can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. RELACS has also been used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Yantz River during 1998. The exact location (region) of the flooding can be effected by the soil-rainfall feedback. Also, the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model which allows for realistic moist processes as well as explicit interactions between cloud and radiation, and cloud and surface processes will be used to simulate convective systems associated with the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1998. The GCE model also includes the same PLACE and radiation scheme used in the RELACS. A detailed comparison between the results from the GCE model and RELACS will be performed.

Diffusion impact on atmospheric moisture transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moseley, C.; Haerter, J.; Göttel, H.; Hagemann, S.; Jacob, D.

2009-04-01

To ensure numerical stability, many global and regional climate models employ numerical diffusion to dampen short wavelength modes. Terrain following sigma diffusion is known to cause unphysical effects near the surface in orographically structured regions. They can be reduced by applying z-diffusion on geopotential height levels. We investigate the effect of the diffusion scheme on atmospheric moisture transport and precipitation formation at different resolutions in the European region. With respect to a better understanding of diffusion in current and future grid-space global models, current day regional models may serve as the appropriate tool for studies of the impact of diffusion schemes: Results can easily be constrained to a small test region and checked against reliable observations, which often are unavailable on a global scale. Special attention is drawn to the Alps - a region of strong topographic gradients and good observational coverage. Our study is further motivated by the appearance of the "summer drying problem" in South Eastern Europe. This too warm and too dry simulation of climate is common to many regional climate models and also to some global climate models, and remains a permanent unsolved problem in the community. We perform a systematic comparison of the two diffusion-schemes with respect to the hydrological cycle. In particular, we investigate how local meteorological quantities - such as the atmospheric moisture in the region east of the Alps - depend on the spatial model resolution. Higher model resolution would lead to a more accurate representation of the topography and entail larger gradients in the Alps. This could lead to consecutively stronger transport of moisture along the slopes in the case of sigma-diffusion with subsequent orographic precipitation, whereas the effect could be qualitatively different in the case of z-diffusion. For our study, we analyse a sequence of simulations of the regional climate model REMO employing the different diffusion methods over Europe. For these simulations, REMO was forced at the lateral boundaries with ERA40 reanalysis data for a five year period. For our higher resolution simulations we employ the double nesting technique.

Trans-Pacific transport and evolution of aerosols: Evaluation of quasi-global WRF-Chem simulation with multiple observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, Zhiyuan; Zhao, Chun; Huang, Jianping

A fully coupled meteorology-chemistry model (WRF-Chem, the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry) has been configured to conduct quasi-global simulation for 5 years (2010–2014) and evaluated with multiple observation data sets for the first time. The evaluation focuses on the simulation over the trans-Pacific transport region using various reanalysis and observational data sets for meteorological fields and aerosol properties. The simulation generally captures the overall spatial and seasonal variability of satellite retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) and absorbing AOD (AAOD) over the Pacific that is determined by the outflow of pollutants and dust and the emissions of marine aerosols.more » The assessment of simulated extinction Ångström exponent (EAE) indicates that the model generally reproduces the variability of aerosol size distributions as seen by satellites. In addition, the vertical profile of aerosol extinction and its seasonality over the Pacific are also well simulated. The difference between the simulation and satellite retrievals can be mainly attributed to model biases in estimating marine aerosol emissions as well as the satellite sampling and retrieval uncertainties. Compared with the surface measurements over the western USA, the model reasonably simulates the observed magnitude and seasonality of dust, sulfate, and nitrate surface concentrations, but significantly underestimates the peak surface concentrations of carbonaceous aerosol likely due to model biases in the spatial and temporal variability of biomass burning emissions and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production. A sensitivity simulation shows that the trans-Pacific transported dust, sulfate, and nitrate can make significant contribution to surface concentrations over the rural areas of the western USA, while the peaks of carbonaceous aerosol surface concentrations are dominated by the North American emissions. Both the retrievals and simulation show small interannual variability of aerosol characteristics for 2010–2014 averaged over three Pacific sub-regions. Furthermore, the evaluation in this study demonstrates that the WRF-Chem quasi-global simulation can be used for investigating trans-Pacific transport of aerosols and providing reasonable inflow chemical boundaries for the western USA, allowing one to further understand the impact of transported pollutants on the regional air quality and climate with high-resolution nested regional modeling.« less

Trans-Pacific transport and evolution of aerosols: Evaluation of quasi-global WRF-Chem simulation with multiple observations

DOE PAGES

Hu, Zhiyuan; Zhao, Chun; Huang, Jianping; ...

2016-05-10

A fully coupled meteorology-chemistry model (WRF-Chem, the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry) has been configured to conduct quasi-global simulation for 5 years (2010–2014) and evaluated with multiple observation data sets for the first time. The evaluation focuses on the simulation over the trans-Pacific transport region using various reanalysis and observational data sets for meteorological fields and aerosol properties. The simulation generally captures the overall spatial and seasonal variability of satellite retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) and absorbing AOD (AAOD) over the Pacific that is determined by the outflow of pollutants and dust and the emissions of marine aerosols.more » The assessment of simulated extinction Ångström exponent (EAE) indicates that the model generally reproduces the variability of aerosol size distributions as seen by satellites. In addition, the vertical profile of aerosol extinction and its seasonality over the Pacific are also well simulated. The difference between the simulation and satellite retrievals can be mainly attributed to model biases in estimating marine aerosol emissions as well as the satellite sampling and retrieval uncertainties. Compared with the surface measurements over the western USA, the model reasonably simulates the observed magnitude and seasonality of dust, sulfate, and nitrate surface concentrations, but significantly underestimates the peak surface concentrations of carbonaceous aerosol likely due to model biases in the spatial and temporal variability of biomass burning emissions and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production. A sensitivity simulation shows that the trans-Pacific transported dust, sulfate, and nitrate can make significant contribution to surface concentrations over the rural areas of the western USA, while the peaks of carbonaceous aerosol surface concentrations are dominated by the North American emissions. Both the retrievals and simulation show small interannual variability of aerosol characteristics for 2010–2014 averaged over three Pacific sub-regions. Furthermore, the evaluation in this study demonstrates that the WRF-Chem quasi-global simulation can be used for investigating trans-Pacific transport of aerosols and providing reasonable inflow chemical boundaries for the western USA, allowing one to further understand the impact of transported pollutants on the regional air quality and climate with high-resolution nested regional modeling.« less

Noah-MP-Crop: Enhancing cropland representation in the community land surface modeling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Chen, F.; Barlage, M. J.; Zhou, G.; Niyogi, D.

2015-12-01

Croplands are important in land-atmosphere interactions and in modifying local and regional weather and climate. Despite their importance, croplands are poorly represented in the current version of the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)/ Noah land-surface modeling system, resulting in significant surface temperature and humidity biases across agriculture- dominated regions of the United States. This study aims to improve the WRF weather forecasting and regional climate simulations during the crop growing season by enhancing the representation of cropland in the Noah-MP land model. We introduced dynamic crop growth parameterization into Noah-MP and evaluated the enhanced model (Noah-MP-Crop) at both the field and regional scales with multiple crop biomass datasets, surface fluxes and soil moisture/temperature observations. We also integrated a detailed cropland cover map into WRF, enabling the model to simulate corn and soybean field across the U.S. Great Plains. Results show marked improvement in the Noah-MP-Crop performance in simulating leaf area index (LAI), crop biomass, soil temperature, and surface fluxes. Enhanced cropland representation is not only crucial for improving weather forecasting but can also help assess potential impacts of weather variability on regional hydrometeorology and crop yields. In addition to its applications to WRF, Noah-MP-Crop can be applied in high-spatial-resolution regional crop yield modeling and drought assessments

An intercomparison of GCM and RCM dynamical downscaling for characterizing the hydroclimatology of California and Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Z.; Rhoades, A.; Johansen, H.; Ullrich, P. A.; Collins, W. D.

2017-12-01

Dynamical downscaling is widely used to properly characterize regional surface heterogeneities that shape the local hydroclimatology. However, the factors in dynamical downscaling, including the refinement of model horizontal resolution, large-scale forcing datasets and dynamical cores, have not been fully evaluated. Two cutting-edge global-to-regional downscaling methods are used to assess these, specifically the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) and the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, under different horizontal resolutions (28, 14, and 7 km). Two groups of WRF simulations are driven by either the NCEP reanalysis dataset (WRF_NCEP) or VR-CESM outputs (WRF_VRCESM) to evaluate the effects of the large-scale forcing datasets. The impacts of dynamical core are assessed by comparing the VR-CESM simulations to the coupled WRF_VRCESM simulations with the same physical parameterizations and similar grid domains. The simulated hydroclimatology (i.e., total precipitation, snow cover, snow water equivalent and surface temperature) are compared with the reference datasets. The large-scale forcing datasets are critical to the WRF simulations in more accurately simulating total precipitation, SWE and snow cover, but not surface temperature. Both the WRF and VR-CESM results highlight that no significant benefit is found in the simulated hydroclimatology by just increasing horizontal resolution refinement from 28 to 7 km. Simulated surface temperature is sensitive to the choice of dynamical core. WRF generally simulates higher temperatures than VR-CESM, alleviates the systematic cold bias of DJF temperatures over the California mountain region, but overestimates the JJA temperature in California's Central Valley.

Understanding the Effect of Land Cover Classification on Model Estimates of Regional Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest Biome

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kimball, John; Kang, Sinkyu

2003-01-01

The original objectives of this proposed 3-year project were to: 1) quantify the respective contributions of land cover and disturbance (i.e., wild fire) to uncertainty associated with regional carbon source/sink estimates produced by a variety of boreal ecosystem models; 2) identify the model processes responsible for differences in simulated carbon source/sink patterns for the boreal forest; 3) validate model outputs using tower and field- based estimates of NEP and NPP; and 4) recommend/prioritize improvements to boreal ecosystem carbon models, which will better constrain regional source/sink estimates for atmospheric C02. These original objectives were subsequently distilled to fit within the constraints of a 1 -year study. This revised study involved a regional model intercomparison over the BOREAS study region involving Biome-BGC, and TEM (A.D. McGuire, UAF) ecosystem models. The major focus of these revised activities involved quantifying the sensitivity of regional model predictions associated with land cover classification uncertainties. We also evaluated the individual and combined effects of historical fire activity, historical atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and climate change on carbon and water flux simulations within the BOREAS study region.

Measurement error in time-series analysis: a simulation study comparing modelled and monitored data.

PubMed

Butland, Barbara K; Armstrong, Ben; Atkinson, Richard W; Wilkinson, Paul; Heal, Mathew R; Doherty, Ruth M; Vieno, Massimo

2013-11-13

Assessing health effects from background exposure to air pollution is often hampered by the sparseness of pollution monitoring networks. However, regional atmospheric chemistry-transport models (CTMs) can provide pollution data with national coverage at fine geographical and temporal resolution. We used statistical simulation to compare the impact on epidemiological time-series analysis of additive measurement error in sparse monitor data as opposed to geographically and temporally complete model data. Statistical simulations were based on a theoretical area of 4 regions each consisting of twenty-five 5 km × 5 km grid-squares. In the context of a 3-year Poisson regression time-series analysis of the association between mortality and a single pollutant, we compared the error impact of using daily grid-specific model data as opposed to daily regional average monitor data. We investigated how this comparison was affected if we changed the number of grids per region containing a monitor. To inform simulations, estimates (e.g. of pollutant means) were obtained from observed monitor data for 2003-2006 for national network sites across the UK and corresponding model data that were generated by the EMEP-WRF CTM. Average within-site correlations between observed monitor and model data were 0.73 and 0.76 for rural and urban daily maximum 8-hour ozone respectively, and 0.67 and 0.61 for rural and urban loge(daily 1-hour maximum NO2). When regional averages were based on 5 or 10 monitors per region, health effect estimates exhibited little bias. However, with only 1 monitor per region, the regression coefficient in our time-series analysis was attenuated by an estimated 6% for urban background ozone, 13% for rural ozone, 29% for urban background loge(NO2) and 38% for rural loge(NO2). For grid-specific model data the corresponding figures were 19%, 22%, 54% and 44% respectively, i.e. similar for rural loge(NO2) but more marked for urban loge(NO2). Even if correlations between model and monitor data appear reasonably strong, additive classical measurement error in model data may lead to appreciable bias in health effect estimates. As process-based air pollution models become more widely used in epidemiological time-series analysis, assessments of error impact that include statistical simulation may be useful.

Operative simulation of anterior clinoidectomy using a rapid prototyping model molded by a three-dimensional printer.

PubMed

Okonogi, Shinichi; Kondo, Kosuke; Harada, Naoyuki; Masuda, Hiroyuki; Nemoto, Masaaki; Sugo, Nobuo

2017-09-01

As the anatomical three-dimensional (3D) positional relationship around the anterior clinoid process (ACP) is complex, experience of many surgeries is necessary to understand anterior clinoidectomy (AC). We prepared a 3D synthetic image from computed tomographic angiography (CTA) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data and a rapid prototyping (RP) model from the imaging data using a 3D printer. The objective of this study was to evaluate anatomical reproduction of the 3D synthetic image and intraosseous region after AC in the RP model. In addition, the usefulness of the RP model for operative simulation was investigated. The subjects were 51 patients who were examined by CTA and MRI before surgery. The size of the ACP, thickness and length of the optic nerve and artery, and intraosseous length after AC were measured in the 3D synthetic image and RP model, and reproducibility in the RP model was evaluated. In addition, 10 neurosurgeons performed AC in the completed RP models to investigate their usefulness for operative simulation. The RP model reproduced the region in the vicinity of the ACP in the 3D synthetic image, including the intraosseous region, at a high accuracy. In addition, drilling of the RP model was a useful operative simulation method of AC. The RP model of the vicinity of ACP, prepared using a 3D printer, showed favorable anatomical reproducibility, including reproduction of the intraosseous region. In addition, it was concluded that this RP model is useful as a surgical education tool for drilling.

Simulation of advective flow under steady-state and transient recharge conditions, Camp Edwards, Massachusetts Military Reservation, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walter, Donald A.; Masterson, John P.

2003-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed several ground-water models in support of an investigation of ground-water contamination being conducted by the Army National Guard Bureau at Camp Edwards, Massachusetts Military Reservation on western Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Regional and subregional steady-state models and regional transient models were used to (1) improve understanding of the hydrologic system, (2) simulate advective transport of contaminants, (3) delineate recharge areas to municipal wells, and (4) evaluate how model discretization and time-varying recharge affect simulation results. A water-table mound dominates ground-water-flow patterns. Near the top of the mound, which is within Camp Edwards, hydraulic gradients are nearly vertically downward and horizontal gradients are small. In downgradient areas that are further from the top of the water-table mound, the ratio of horizontal to vertical gradients is larger and horizontal flow predominates. The steady-state regional model adequately simulates advective transport in some areas of the aquifer; however, simulation of ground-water flow in areas with local hydrologic boundaries, such as ponds, requires more finely discretized subregional models. Subregional models also are needed to delineate recharge areas to municipal wells that are inadequately represented in the regional model or are near other pumped wells. Long-term changes in recharge rates affect hydraulic heads in the aquifer and shift the position of the top of the water-table mound. Hydraulic-gradient directions do not change over time in downgradient areas, whereas they do change substantially with temporal changes in recharge near the top of the water-table mound. The assumption of steady-state hydraulic conditions is valid in downgradient area, where advective transport paths change little over time. In areas closer to the top of the water-table mound, advective transport paths change as a function of time, transient and steady-state paths do not coincide, and the assumption of steady-state conditions is not valid. The simulation results indicate that several modeling tools are needed to adequately simulate ground-water flow at the site and that the utility of a model varies according to hydrologic conditions in the specific areas of interest.

Simulation of the Shallow Ground-Water-Flow System near Grindstone Creek and the Community of New Post, Sawyer County, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Juckem, Paul F.; Hunt, Randall J.

2007-01-01

A two-dimensional, steady-state ground-water-flow model of Grindstone Creek, the New Post community, and the surrounding areas was developed using the analytic element computer code GFLOW. The parameter estimation code UCODE was used to obtain a best fit of the model to measured water levels and streamflows. The calibrated model was then used to simulate the effect of ground-water pumping on base flow in Grindstone Creek. Local refinements to the regional model were subsequently added in the New Post area, and local water-level data were used to evaluate the regional model calibration. The locally refined New Post model was also used to simulate the areal extent of capture for two existing water-supply wells and two possible replacement wells. Calibration of the regional Grindstone Creek simulation resulted in horizontal hydraulic conductivity values of 58.2 feet per day (ft/d) for the regional glacial and sandstone aquifer and 7.9 ft/d for glacial thrust-mass areas. Ground-water recharge in the calibrated regional model was 10.1 inches per year. Simulation of a golf-course irrigation well, located roughly 4,000 feet away from the creek, and pumping at 46 gallons per minute (0.10 cubic feet per second, ft3/s), reduced base flow in Grindstone Creek by 0.05 ft3/s, or 0.6 percent of the median base flow during water year 2003, compared to the calibrated model simulation without pumping. A simulation of peak pumping periods (347 gallons per minute or 0.77 ft3/s) reduced base flow in Grindstone Creek by 0.4 ft3/s (4.9 percent of the median base flow). Capture zones for existing and possible replacement wells delineated by the local New Post simulation extend from the well locations to an area south of the pumping well locations. Shallow crystalline bedrock, generally located south of the community, limits the extent of the aquifer and thus the southerly extent of the capture zones. Simulated steady-state pumping at a rate of 9,600 gallons per day (gal/d) from a possible replacement well near the Chippewa Flowage induced 70 gal/d of water from the flowage to enter the aquifer. Although no water-quality samples were collected from the Chippewa Flowage or the ground-water system, surface-water leakage into the ground-water system could potentially change the local water quality in the aquifer.

Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

2016-01-01

We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against observations.

Flash Floods Simulation Using a Physical based hydrological Model at the Eastern Nile Basin: Case studies; Wadi Assiut, Egypt and Wadi Gumara, Lake Tana, Ethiopia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saber, M.; Sefelnasr, A.; Yilmaz, K. K.

2015-12-01

Flash flood is a natural hydrological phenomenon which affects many regions of the world. The behavior and effect of this phenomenon is different from one region to the other regions depending on several issues such as climatology and hydrological and topographical conditions at the target regions. Wadi assiut, Egypt as arid environment, and Gumara catchment, Lake Tana, Ethiopia, as humid conditions have been selected for application. The main target of this work is to simulate flash floods at both catchments considering the difference between them on the flash flood behaviors based on the variability of both of them. In order to simulate the flash floods, remote sensing data and a physical-based distributed hydrological model, Hydro-BEAM-WaS (Hydrological River Basin Environmental Assessment Model incorporating Wadi System) have been integrated used in this work. Based on the simulation results of flash floods in these regions, it was found that the time to reach the maximum peak is very short and consequently the warning time is very short as well. It was found that the flash floods starts from zero flow in arid environment, but on the contrary in humid arid, it starts from Base flow which is changeable based on the simulated events. Distribution maps of flash floods showing the vulnerable regions of these selected areas have been developed. Consequently, some mitigation strategies relying on this study have been introduced. The proposed methodology can be applied effectively for flash flood forecasting at different climate regions, however the paucity of observational data.

Space-based Doppler lidar sampling strategies: Algorithm development and simulated observation experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Emmitt, G. D.; Wood, S. A.; Morris, M.

1990-01-01

Lidar Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) Simulation Models (LSM) were developed to evaluate the potential impact of global wind observations on the basic understanding of the Earth's atmosphere and on the predictive skills of current forecast models (GCM and regional scale). Fully integrated top to bottom LAWS Simulation Models for global and regional scale simulations were developed. The algorithm development incorporated the effects of aerosols, water vapor, clouds, terrain, and atmospheric turbulence into the models. Other additions include a new satellite orbiter, signal processor, line of sight uncertainty model, new Multi-Paired Algorithm and wind error analysis code. An atmospheric wind field library containing control fields, meteorological fields, phenomena fields, and new European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) data was also added. The LSM was used to address some key LAWS issues and trades such as accuracy and interpretation of LAWS information, data density, signal strength, cloud obscuration, and temporal data resolution.

Simulating the impact of brine from desalination plants on the salinity of the Persian/Arabian Gulf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eltahir, E. A. B.; Ibrahim, H. D.

2016-12-01

The Middle East has an arid climate and very little freshwater from river runoff, which has forced a rapid expansion of desalination plants in the region in order to meet current and future freshwater demand due to rising population. The Gulf is the source of feedwater and sink of concentrated discharge (brine) for plants producing more than half of the world's desalination capacity. Moreover, the Gulf is one of the most saline water bodies in the world due to large evaporation that far exceeds the input of freshwater from precipitation and river runoff. An increase in salinity at the regional scale due to brine discharge may reduce the quality of feedwater to plants and efficiency of desalination, and at the basin scale, a rise in salinity may change the dynamics of water circulation and adversely impact the marine biota. Here we present modeling results from simulating the impact of desalination on the natural Gulf environment using a coupled Gulf-atmosphere regional model (GARM). GARM is the first two-way coupled model developed for the Gulf system. The hydrodynamic component of GARM is the unstructured grid finite volume coastal ocean model (FVCOM) and the atmosphere component of GARM is the MIT regional climate model (MRCM), both of which have been widely used in simulating regional ocean and atmospheric dynamics. Desalination activity is incorporated into GARM as a boundary condition and the Gulf system is simulated for a ten-year time period in order to quantify the impact of brine discharge both at regional and basin scales. These results will be useful for desalination plant design and planning for current and future water security in the region.

Magnetohydrodynamic Simulation of a Streamer Beside a Realistic Coronal Hole

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suess, S. T.; Wu, S. T.; Wang, A. H.; Poletto, G.

1994-01-01

Existing models of coronal streamers establish their credibility and act as the initial state for transients. The models have produced satisfactory streamer simulations, but unsatisfactory coronal hole simulations. This is a consequence of the character of the models and the boundary conditions. The models all have higher densities in the magnetically open regions than occur in coronal holes (Noci, et al., 1993).

Improvement of GPS radio occultation retrieval error of E region electron density: COSMIC measurement and IRI model simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Kang-Hung; Su, Ching-Lun; Chu, Yen-Hsyang

2015-03-01

In this article, we use the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model to simulate temporal and spatial distributions of global E region electron densities retrieved by the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC satellites by means of GPS radio occultation (RO) technique. Despite regional discrepancies in the magnitudes of the E region electron density, the IRI model simulations can, on the whole, describe the COSMIC measurements in quality and quantity. On the basis of global ionosonde network and the IRI model, the retrieval errors of the global COSMIC-measured E region peak electron density (NmE) from July 2006 to July 2011 are examined and simulated. The COSMIC measurement and the IRI model simulation both reveal that the magnitudes of the percentage error (PE) and root mean-square-error (RMSE) of the relative RO retrieval errors of the NmE values are dependent on local time (LT) and geomagnetic latitude, with minimum in the early morning and at high latitudes and maximum in the afternoon and at middle latitudes. In addition, the seasonal variation of PE and RMSE values seems to be latitude dependent. After removing the IRI model-simulated GPS RO retrieval errors from the original COSMIC measurements, the average values of the annual and monthly mean percentage errors of the RO retrieval errors of the COSMIC-measured E region electron density are, respectively, substantially reduced by a factor of about 2.95 and 3.35, and the corresponding root-mean-square errors show averaged decreases of 15.6% and 15.4%, respectively. It is found that, with this process, the largest reduction in the PE and RMSE of the COSMIC-measured NmE occurs at the equatorial anomaly latitudes 10°N-30°N in the afternoon from 14 to 18 LT, with a factor of 25 and 2, respectively. Statistics show that the residual errors that remained in the corrected COSMIC-measured NmE vary in a range of -20% to 38%, which are comparable to or larger than the percentage errors of the IRI-predicted NmE fluctuating in a range of -6.5% to 20%.

Impact of Spatial Soil and Climate Input Data Aggregation on Regional Yield Simulations

PubMed Central

Hoffmann, Holger; Zhao, Gang; Asseng, Senthold; Bindi, Marco; Biernath, Christian; Constantin, Julie; Coucheney, Elsa; Dechow, Rene; Doro, Luca; Eckersten, Henrik; Gaiser, Thomas; Grosz, Balázs; Heinlein, Florian; Kassie, Belay T.; Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian; Klein, Christian; Kuhnert, Matthias; Lewan, Elisabet; Moriondo, Marco; Nendel, Claas; Priesack, Eckart; Raynal, Helene; Roggero, Pier P.; Rötter, Reimund P.; Siebert, Stefan; Specka, Xenia; Tao, Fulu; Teixeira, Edmar; Trombi, Giacomo; Wallach, Daniel; Weihermüller, Lutz; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh; Ewert, Frank

2016-01-01

We show the error in water-limited yields simulated by crop models which is associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate input data. Crop simulations at large scales (regional, national, continental) frequently use input data of low resolution. Therefore, climate and soil data are often generated via averaging and sampling by area majority. This may bias simulated yields at large scales, varying largely across models. Thus, we evaluated the error associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate data for 14 crop models. Yields of winter wheat and silage maize were simulated under water-limited production conditions. We calculated this error from crop yields simulated at spatial resolutions from 1 to 100 km for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Most models showed yields biased by <15% when aggregating only soil data. The relative mean absolute error (rMAE) of most models using aggregated soil data was in the range or larger than the inter-annual or inter-model variability in yields. This error increased further when both climate and soil data were aggregated. Distinct error patterns indicate that the rMAE may be estimated from few soil variables. Illustrating the range of these aggregation effects across models, this study is a first step towards an ex-ante assessment of aggregation errors in large-scale simulations. PMID:27055028

Impact of Spatial Soil and Climate Input Data Aggregation on Regional Yield Simulations.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Holger; Zhao, Gang; Asseng, Senthold; Bindi, Marco; Biernath, Christian; Constantin, Julie; Coucheney, Elsa; Dechow, Rene; Doro, Luca; Eckersten, Henrik; Gaiser, Thomas; Grosz, Balázs; Heinlein, Florian; Kassie, Belay T; Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian; Klein, Christian; Kuhnert, Matthias; Lewan, Elisabet; Moriondo, Marco; Nendel, Claas; Priesack, Eckart; Raynal, Helene; Roggero, Pier P; Rötter, Reimund P; Siebert, Stefan; Specka, Xenia; Tao, Fulu; Teixeira, Edmar; Trombi, Giacomo; Wallach, Daniel; Weihermüller, Lutz; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh; Ewert, Frank

2016-01-01

We show the error in water-limited yields simulated by crop models which is associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate input data. Crop simulations at large scales (regional, national, continental) frequently use input data of low resolution. Therefore, climate and soil data are often generated via averaging and sampling by area majority. This may bias simulated yields at large scales, varying largely across models. Thus, we evaluated the error associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate data for 14 crop models. Yields of winter wheat and silage maize were simulated under water-limited production conditions. We calculated this error from crop yields simulated at spatial resolutions from 1 to 100 km for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Most models showed yields biased by <15% when aggregating only soil data. The relative mean absolute error (rMAE) of most models using aggregated soil data was in the range or larger than the inter-annual or inter-model variability in yields. This error increased further when both climate and soil data were aggregated. Distinct error patterns indicate that the rMAE may be estimated from few soil variables. Illustrating the range of these aggregation effects across models, this study is a first step towards an ex-ante assessment of aggregation errors in large-scale simulations.

Empirical and model study on Travel-entering China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Xue-Fang; Chen, Qi-Juan; Chang, Hui; He, Da-Ren

2006-03-01

We have done an empirical investigation on the travel-entering China from abroad to 31 regions of Chinese Mainland in recent ten years, including the development of the traveler's number, the traveler's number distribution for the traveler's home regions, the traveler's number distribution for the traveler's destination regions in Chinese mainland, and so on. We also suggest a dynamic model for simulating the competition between the 31 regions in the traveling market by considering two main influence factors, the attracting factor of the travel destinations and the distance between the destination and the home regions of the travelers. The simulation results show a good agreement with the empirical data. We expect the model could suggest some advice and thoughts to the travel-entering management departments in China and may be also for other countries.

Online Simulations of Global Aerosol Distributions in the NASA GEOS-4 Model and Comparisons to Satellite and Ground-Based Aerosol Optical Depth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colarco, Peter; daSilva, Arlindo; Chin, Mian; Diehl, Thomas

2010-01-01

We have implemented a module for tropospheric aerosols (GO CART) online in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 model and simulated global aerosol distributions for the period 2000-2006. The new online system offers several advantages over the previous offline version, providing a platform for aerosol data assimilation, aerosol-chemistry-climate interaction studies, and short-range chemical weather forecasting and climate prediction. We introduce as well a methodology for sampling model output consistently with satellite aerosol optical thickness (AOT) retrievals to facilitate model-satellite comparison. Our results are similar to the offline GOCART model and to the models participating in the AeroCom intercomparison. The simulated AOT has similar seasonal and regional variability and magnitude to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer observations. The model AOT and Angstrom parameter are consistently low relative to AERONET in biomass-burning-dominated regions, where emissions appear to be underestimated, consistent with the results of the offline GOCART model. In contrast, the model AOT is biased high in sulfate-dominated regions of North America and Europe. Our model-satellite comparison methodology shows that diurnal variability in aerosol loading is unimportant compared to sampling the model where the satellite has cloud-free observations, particularly in sulfate-dominated regions. Simulated sea salt burden and optical thickness are high by a factor of 2-3 relative to other models, and agreement between model and satellite over-ocean AOT is improved by reducing the model sea salt burden by a factor of 2. The best agreement in both AOT magnitude and variability occurs immediately downwind of the Saharan dust plume.

Long-term hydrometeorological trends in the Midwest region based on a century long gridded hydrometeorological dataset and simulations from a macro-scale hydrology model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, C. M.; Hamlet, A. F.

2014-12-01

Climate change is likely to impact the Great Lakes region and Midwest region via changes in Great Lakes water levels, agricultural impacts, river flooding, urban stormwater impacts, drought, water temperature, and impacts to terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Self-consistent and temporally homogeneous long-term data sets of precipitation and temperature over the entire Great Lakes region and Midwest regions are needed to provide inputs to hydrologic models, assess historical trends in hydroclimatic variables, and downscale global and regional-scale climate models. To support these needs a new hybrid gridded meteorological forcing dataset at 1/16 degree resolution based on data from co-op station records, the U. S Historical Climatology Network (HCN) , the Historical Canadian Climate Database (HCCD), and Precipitation Regression on Independent Slopes Method (PRISM) has been assembled over the Great Lakes and Midwest region from 1915-2012 at daily time step. These data were then used as inputs to the macro-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model, implemented over the Midwest and Great Lakes region at 1/16 degree resolution, to produce simulated hydrologic variables that are amenable to long-term trend analysis. Trends in precipitation and temperature from the new meteorological driving data sets, as well as simulated hydrometeorological variables such as snowpack, soil moisture, runoff, and evaporation over the 20th century are presented and discussed.

Pollen-proxies say cooler, climate models say warmer: resolving conflicting views of the Holocene climate of the Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, E.; Mauri, A.; Davis, B. A. S.; Cubasch, U.

2017-12-01

The evolution of the Mediterranean region's climate during the Holocene has been the subject of long-standing debate within the paleoclimate community. Conflicting hypotheses have emerged from the analysis of different climate reconstructions based on proxy records and climate models outputs.In particular, pollen-based reconstructions of cooler summer temperatures during the Holocene have been criticized based on a hypothesis that the Mediterranean vegetation is mainly limited by effective precipitation and not summer temperature. This criticism is important because climate models show warmer summer temperatures during the Holocene over the Mediterranean region, in direct contradiction of the pollen-based evidence. Here we investigate this problem using a high resolution model simulation of the climate of the Mediterranean region during the mid-to-late Holocene, which we compare against pollen-based reconstructions using two different approaches.In the first, we compare the simulated climate from the model directly with the climate derived from the pollen data. In the second, we compare the simulated vegetation from the model directly with the vegetation from the pollen data.Results show that the climate model is unable to simulate neither the climate nor the vegetation shown by the pollen-data. The pollen data indicates an expansion in cool temperate vegetation in the mid-Holocene while the model suggests an expansion in warm arid vegetation. This suggests that the data-model discrepancy is more likely the result of bias in climate models, and not bias in the pollen-climate calibration transfer-function.

Large eddy simulation of a wing-body junction flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, Sungmin; Emory, Michael; Campos, Alejandro; Duraisamy, Karthik; Iaccarino, Gianluca

2014-11-01

We present numerical simulations of the wing-body junction flow experimentally investigated by Devenport & Simpson (1990). Wall-junction flows are common in engineering applications but relevant flow physics close to the corner region is not well understood. Moreover, performance of turbulence models for the body-junction case is not well characterized. Motivated by the insufficient investigations, we have numerically investigated the case with Reynolds-averaged Naiver-Stokes equation (RANS) and Large Eddy Simulation (LES) approaches. The Vreman model applied for the LES and SST k- ω model for the RANS simulation are validated focusing on the ability to predict turbulence statistics near the junction region. Moreover, a sensitivity study of the form of the Vreman model will also be presented. This work is funded under NASA Cooperative Agreement NNX11AI41A (Technical Monitor Dr. Stephen Woodruff)

Upscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandenbulcke, Luc; Barth, Alexander

2017-04-01

In the present European operational oceanography context, global and basin-scale models are run daily at different Monitoring and Forecasting Centers from the Copernicus Marine component (CMEMS). Regional forecasting centers, which run outside of CMEMS, then use these forecasts as initial conditions and/or boundary conditions for high-resolution or coastal forecasts. However, these improved simulations are lost to the basin-scale models (i.e. there is no feedback). Therefore, some potential improvements inside (and even outside) the areas covered by regional models are lost, and the risk for discrepancy between basin-scale and regional model remains high. The objective of this study is to simulate two-way nesting by extracting pseudo-observations from the regional models and assimilating them in the basin-scale models. The proposed method is called "upscaling". A ensemble of 100 one-way nested NEMO models of the Mediterranean Sea (Med) (1/16°) and the North-Western Med (1/80°) is implemented to simulate the period 2014-2015. Each member has perturbed initial conditions, atmospheric forcing fields and river discharge data. The Med model uses climatological Rhone river data, while the nested model uses measured daily discharges. The error of the pseudo-observations can be estimated by analyzing the ensemble of nested models. The pseudo-observations are then assimilated in the parent model by means of an Ensemble Kalman Filter. The experiments show that the proposed method improves different processes in the Med model, such as the position of the Northern Current and its incursion (or not) on the Gulf of Lions, the cold water mass on the shelf, and the position of the Rhone river plume. Regarding areas where no operational regional models exist, (some variables of) the parent model can still be improved by relating some resolved parameters to statistical properties of a higher-resolution simulation. This is the topic of a complementary study also presented at the EGU 2017 (Barth et al).

Coupled Global-Regional Climate Model Simulations of Future Changes in Hydrology over Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oglesby, R. J.; Erickson, D. J.; Hernandez, J. L.; Irwin, D.

2005-12-01

Central America covers a relatively small area, but is topographically very complex, has long coast-lines, large inland bodies of water, and very diverse land cover which is both natural and human-induced. As a result, Central America is plagued by hydrologic extremes, especially major flooding and drought events, in a region where many people still barely manage to eke out a living through subsistence. Therefore, considerable concern exists about whether these extreme events will change, either in magnitude or in number, as climate changes in the future. To address this concern, we have used global climate model simulations of future climate change to drive a regional climate model centered on Central America. We use the IPCC `business as usual' scenario 21st century run made with the NCAR CCSM3 global model to drive the regional model MM5 at 12 km resolution. We chose the `business as usual' scenario to focus on the largest possible changes that are likely to occur. Because we are most interested in near-term changes, our simulations are for the years 2010, 2015, and 2025. A long `present-day run (for 2005) allows us to distinguish between climate variability and any signal due to climate change. Furthermore, a multi-year run with MM5 forced by NCEP reanalyses allows an assessment of how well the coupled global-regional model performs over Central America. Our analyses suggest that the coupled model does a credible job simulating the current climate and hydrologic regime, though lack of sufficient observations strongly complicates this comparison. The suite of model runs for the future years is currently nearing completion, and key results will be presented at the meeting.

Simulation of ground-water flow in the Mojave River basin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stamos, Christina L.; Martin, Peter; Nishikawa, Tracy; Cox, Brett F.

2001-01-01

The proximity of the Mojave River ground-water basin to the highly urbanized Los Angeles region has led to rapid growth in population and, consequently, to an increase in the demand for water. The Mojave River, the primary source of surface water for the region, normally is dry-except for a small stretch of perennial flow and periods of flow after intense storms. Thus, the region relies almost entirely on ground water to meet its agricultural and municipal needs. Ground-water withdrawal since the late 1800's has resulted in discharge, primarily from pumping wells, that exceeds natural recharge. To better understand the relation between the regional and the floodplain aquifer systems and to develop a management tool that could be used to estimate the effects that future stresses may have on the ground-water system, a numerical ground-water flow model of the Mojave River ground-water basin was developed, in part, on the basis of a previously developed analog model. The ground-water flow model has two horizontal layers; the top layer (layer 1) corresponds to the floodplain aquifer and the bottom layer (layer 2) corresponds to the regional aquifer. There are 161 rows and 200 columns with a horizontal grid spacing of 2,000 by 2,000 feet. Two stress periods (wet and dry) per year are used where the duration of each stress period is a function of the occurrence, quantity of discharge, and length of stormflow from the headwaters each year. A steady-state model provided initial conditions for the transient-state simulation. The model was calibrated to transient-state conditions (1931-94) using a trial-and-error approach. The transient-state simulation results are in good agreement with measured data. Under transient-state conditions, the simulated floodplain aquifer and regional aquifer hydrographs matched the general trends observed for the measured water levels. The simulated streamflow hydrographs matched wet stress period average flow rates and times of no flow at the Barstow and Afton Canyon gages. Steady-state particle-tracking was used to estimate travel times for mountain-front and streamflow recharge. The simulated travel times for mountain-front recharge to reach the area west of Victorville were about 5,000 to 6,000 years; this result is in reasonable agreement with published results. Steady-state particle-tracking results for streamflow recharge indicate that in most subareas along the river, the particles quickly leave and reenter the river. The complaint that resulted in the adjudication of the Mojave River ground-water basin alleged that the cumulative water production upstream of the city of Barstow had overdrafted the ground-water basin. In order to ascertain the effect of pumping on ground-water and surface-water relations along the Mojave River, two pumping simulations were compared with the 1931-90 transient-state simulation (base case). The first simulation assumed 1931-90 pumping in the upper region (Este, Oeste, Alto, and Transition zone model subareas) but with no pumping in the remainder of the basin, and the second assumed 1931-90 pumping in the lower region (Centro, Harper Lake, Baja, Coyote Lake, and Afton Canyon model subareas) but with no pumping in remainder of the basin. In the upper region, assuming pumping only in the upper region, there was no change in storage, recharge from the Mojave River, ground-water discharge to the Mojave River, or evapotranspiration when compared with the base case. In the lower region, assuming pumping only in the upper region, there was storage accretion, decreased recharge from the Mojave River, increased ground-water discharge to the Mojave River, and increased evapotranspiration when compared with the base case. In the upper region, assuming pumping only in the lower region, there was storage accretion, decreased recharge from the Mojave River, increased ground-water discharge to the Mojave River, and increased evapotranspiration when compared with the base case. In the

Sensitivity of the weather research and forecasting model to parameterization schemes for regional climate of Nile River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tariku, Tebikachew Betru; Gan, Thian Yew

2018-06-01

Regional climate models (RCMs) have been used to simulate rainfall at relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions useful for sustainable water resources planning, design and management. In this study, the sensitivity of the RCM, weather research and forecasting (WRF), in modeling the regional climate of the Nile River Basin (NRB) was investigated using 31 combinations of different physical parameterization schemes which include cumulus (Cu), microphysics (MP), planetary boundary layer (PBL), land-surface model (LSM) and radiation (Ra) schemes. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data as initial and lateral boundary conditions, WRF was configured to model the climate of NRB at a resolution of 36 km with 30 vertical levels. The 1999-2001 simulations using WRF were compared with satellite data combined with ground observation and the NCEP reanalysis data for 2 m surface air temperature (T2), rainfall, short- and longwave downward radiation at the surface (SWRAD, LWRAD). Overall, WRF simulated more accurate T2 and LWRAD (with correlation coefficients >0.8 and low root-mean-square error) than SWRAD and rainfall for the NRB. Further, the simulation of rainfall is more sensitive to PBL, Cu and MP schemes than other schemes of WRF. For example, WRF simulated less biased rainfall with Kain-Fritsch combined with MYJ than with YSU as the PBL scheme. The simulation of T2 is more sensitive to LSM and Ra than to Cu, PBL and MP schemes selected, SWRAD is more sensitive to MP and Ra than to Cu, LSM and PBL schemes, and LWRAD is more sensitive to LSM, Ra and PBL than Cu, and MP schemes. In summary, the following combination of schemes simulated the most representative regional climate of NRB: WSM3 microphysics, KF cumulus, MYJ PBL, RRTM longwave radiation and Dudhia shortwave radiation schemes, and Noah LSM. The above configuration of WRF coupled to the Noah LSM has also been shown to simulate representative regional climate of NRB over 1980-2001 which include a combination of wet and dry years of the NRB.

Sensitivity of the weather research and forecasting model to parameterization schemes for regional climate of Nile River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tariku, Tebikachew Betru; Gan, Thian Yew

2017-08-01

Regional climate models (RCMs) have been used to simulate rainfall at relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions useful for sustainable water resources planning, design and management. In this study, the sensitivity of the RCM, weather research and forecasting (WRF), in modeling the regional climate of the Nile River Basin (NRB) was investigated using 31 combinations of different physical parameterization schemes which include cumulus (Cu), microphysics (MP), planetary boundary layer (PBL), land-surface model (LSM) and radiation (Ra) schemes. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data as initial and lateral boundary conditions, WRF was configured to model the climate of NRB at a resolution of 36 km with 30 vertical levels. The 1999-2001 simulations using WRF were compared with satellite data combined with ground observation and the NCEP reanalysis data for 2 m surface air temperature (T2), rainfall, short- and longwave downward radiation at the surface (SWRAD, LWRAD). Overall, WRF simulated more accurate T2 and LWRAD (with correlation coefficients >0.8 and low root-mean-square error) than SWRAD and rainfall for the NRB. Further, the simulation of rainfall is more sensitive to PBL, Cu and MP schemes than other schemes of WRF. For example, WRF simulated less biased rainfall with Kain-Fritsch combined with MYJ than with YSU as the PBL scheme. The simulation of T2 is more sensitive to LSM and Ra than to Cu, PBL and MP schemes selected, SWRAD is more sensitive to MP and Ra than to Cu, LSM and PBL schemes, and LWRAD is more sensitive to LSM, Ra and PBL than Cu, and MP schemes. In summary, the following combination of schemes simulated the most representative regional climate of NRB: WSM3 microphysics, KF cumulus, MYJ PBL, RRTM longwave radiation and Dudhia shortwave radiation schemes, and Noah LSM. The above configuration of WRF coupled to the Noah LSM has also been shown to simulate representative regional climate of NRB over 1980-2001 which include a combination of wet and dry years of the NRB.

Surface mesh to voxel data registration for patient-specific anatomical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Oliveira, Júlia E. E.; Giessler, Paul; Keszei, András.; Herrler, Andreas; Deserno, Thomas M.

2016-03-01

Virtual Physiological Human (VPH) models are frequently used for training, planning, and performing medical procedures. The Regional Anaesthesia Simulator and Assistant (RASimAs) project has the goal of increasing the application and effectiveness of regional anesthesia (RA) by combining a simulator of ultrasound-guided and electrical nerve-stimulated RA procedures and a subject-specific assistance system through an integration of image processing, physiological models, subject-specific data, and virtual reality. Individualized models enrich the virtual training tools for learning and improving regional anaesthesia (RA) skills. Therefore, we suggest patient-specific VPH models that are composed by registering the general mesh-based models with patient voxel data-based recordings. Specifically, the pelvis region has been focused for the support of the femoral nerve block. The processing pipeline is composed of different freely available toolboxes such as MatLab, the open Simulation framework (SOFA), and MeshLab. The approach of Gilles is applied for mesh-to-voxel registration. Personalized VPH models include anatomical as well as mechanical properties of the tissues. Two commercial VPH models (Zygote and Anatomium) were used together with 34 MRI data sets. Results are presented for the skin surface and pelvic bones. Future work will extend the registration procedure to cope with all model tissue (i.e., skin, muscle, bone, vessel, nerve, fascia) in a one-step procedure and extrapolating the personalized models to body regions actually being out of the captured field of view.

Molecular Dynamics Study of Water Flow across Multiple Layers of Pristine, Oxidized, and Mixed Regions of Graphene Oxide.

PubMed

Willcox, Jon A L; Kim, Hyung J

2017-02-28

A molecular dynamics graphene oxide model is used to shed light on commonly overlooked features of graphene oxide membranes. The model features both perpendicular and parallel water flow across multiple sheets of pristine and/or oxidized graphene to simulate "brick-and-mortar" microstructures. Additionally, regions of pristine/oxidized graphene overlap that have thus far been overlooked in the literature are explored. Differences in orientational and hydrogen-bonding features between adjacent layers of water in this mixed region are found to be even more prominent than differences between pristine and oxidized channels. This region also shows lateral water flow in equilibrium simulations and orthogonal flow in non-equilibrium simulations significantly greater than those in the oxidized region, suggesting it may play a non-negligible role in the mechanism of water flow across graphene oxide membranes.

Multisite Evaluation of APEX for Water Quality: II. Regional Parameterization.

PubMed

Nelson, Nathan O; Baffaut, Claire; Lory, John A; Anomaa Senaviratne, G M M M; Bhandari, Ammar B; Udawatta, Ranjith P; Sweeney, Daniel W; Helmers, Matt J; Van Liew, Mike W; Mallarino, Antonio P; Wortmann, Charles S

2017-11-01

Phosphorus (P) Index assessment requires independent estimates of long-term average annual P loss from fields, representing multiple climatic scenarios, management practices, and landscape positions. Because currently available measured data are insufficient to evaluate P Index performance, calibrated and validated process-based models have been proposed as tools to generate the required data. The objectives of this research were to develop a regional parameterization for the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX) model to estimate edge-of-field runoff, sediment, and P losses in restricted-layer soils of Missouri and Kansas and to assess the performance of this parameterization using monitoring data from multiple sites in this region. Five site-specific calibrated models (SSCM) from within the region were used to develop a regionally calibrated model (RCM), which was further calibrated and validated with measured data. Performance of the RCM was similar to that of the SSCMs for runoff simulation and had Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) > 0.72 and absolute percent bias (|PBIAS|) < 18% for both calibration and validation. The RCM could not simulate sediment loss (NSE < 0, |PBIAS| > 90%) and was particularly ineffective at simulating sediment loss from locations with small sediment loads. The RCM had acceptable performance for simulation of total P loss (NSE > 0.74, |PBIAS| < 30%) but underperformed the SSCMs. Total P-loss estimates should be used with caution due to poor simulation of sediment loss. Although we did not attain our goal of a robust regional parameterization of APEX for estimating sediment and total P losses, runoff estimates with the RCM were acceptable for P Index evaluation. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Modeling seasonal migration of fall armyworm moths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westbrook, J. K.; Nagoshi, R. N.; Meagher, R. L.; Fleischer, S. J.; Jairam, S.

2016-02-01

Fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith), is a highly mobile insect pest of a wide range of host crops. However, this pest of tropical origin cannot survive extended periods of freezing temperature but must migrate northward each spring if it is to re-infest cropping areas in temperate regions. The northward limit of the winter-breeding region for North America extends to southern regions of Texas and Florida, but infestations are regularly reported as far north as Québec and Ontario provinces in Canada by the end of summer. Recent genetic analyses have characterized migratory pathways from these winter-breeding regions, but knowledge is lacking on the atmosphere's role in influencing the timing, distance, and direction of migratory flights. The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model was used to simulate migratory flight of fall armyworm moths from distinct winter-breeding source areas. Model simulations identified regions of dominant immigration from the Florida and Texas source areas and overlapping immigrant populations in the Alabama-Georgia and Pennsylvania-Mid-Atlantic regions. This simulated migratory pattern corroborates a previous migratory map based on the distribution of fall armyworm haplotype profiles. We found a significant regression between the simulated first week of moth immigration and first week of moth capture (for locations which captured ≥10 moths), which on average indicated that the model simulated first immigration 2 weeks before first captures in pheromone traps. The results contribute to knowledge of fall armyworm population ecology on a continental scale and will aid in the prediction and interpretation of inter-annual variability of insect migration patterns including those in response to climatic change and adoption rates of transgenic cultivars.

How well do terrestrial biosphere models simulate coarse-scale runoff in the contiguous United States?

DOE PAGES

Schwalm, C.; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Cook, Robert B.; ...

2015-03-11

Significant changes in the water cycle are expected under current global environmental change. Robust assessment of present-day water cycle dynamics at continental to global scales is confounded by shortcomings in the observed record. Modeled assessments also yield conflicting results which are linked to differences in model structure and simulation protocol. Here we compare simulated gridded (1 spatial resolution) runoff from six terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), seven reanalysis products, and one gridded surface station product in the contiguous United States (CONUS) from 2001 to 2005. We evaluate the consistency of these 14 estimates with stream gauge data, both as depleted flowmore » and corrected for net withdrawals (2005 only), at the CONUS and water resource region scale, as well as examining similarity across TBMs and reanalysis products at the grid cell scale. Mean runoff across all simulated products and regions varies widely (range: 71 to 356 mm yr(-1)) relative to observed continental-scale runoff (209 or 280 mm yr(-1) when corrected for net withdrawals). Across all 14 products 8 exhibit Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values in excess of 0.8 and three are within 10% of the observed value. Region-level mismatch exhibits a weak pattern of overestimation in western and underestimation in eastern regions although two products are systematically biased across all regions and largely scales with water use. Although gridded composite TBM and reanalysis runoff show some regional similarities, individual product values are highly variable. At the coarse scales used here we find that progress in better constraining simulated runoff requires standardized forcing data and the explicit incorporation of human effects (e.g., water withdrawals by source, fire, and land use change). (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.« less

High resolution simulations of orographic flow over a complex terrain on the Southeast coast of Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, S. C.; Zolino, M. M.; Gomes, J. L.; Bustamante, J. F.; Lima-e-Silva, P. P.

2012-04-01

The Eta Model is used operationally by CPTEC to produce weather forecasts over South America since 1997. The model has gone through upgrades. In order to prepare the model for operational higher resolution forecasts, the model is configured and tested over a region of complex topography located near the coast of Southeast Brazil. The Eta Model was configured, with 2-km horizontal resolution and 50 layers. The Eta-2km is a second nesting, it is driven by Eta-15km, which in its turn is driven by Era-Interim reanalyses. The model domain includes the two Brazilians cities, Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, urban areas, preserved tropical forest, pasture fields, and complex terrain and coastline. Mountains can rise up to about 700m. The region suffers frequent events of floods and landslides. The objective of this work is to evaluate high resolution simulations of wind and temperature in this complex area. Verification of model runs uses observations taken from the nuclear power plant. Accurate near-surface wind direction and magnitude are needed for the plant emergency plan and winds are highly sensitive to model spatial resolution and atmospheric stability. Verification of two cases during summer shows that model has clear diurnal cycle signal for wind in that region. The area is characterized by weak winds which makes the simulation more difficult. The simulated wind magnitude is about 1.5m/s, which is close to observations of about 2m/s; however, the observed change of wind direction of the sea breeze is fast whereas it is slow in the simulations. Nighttime katabatic flow is captured by the simulations. Comparison against Eta-5km runs show that the valley circulation is better described in the 2-km resolution run. Simulated temperatures follow closely the observed diurnal cycle. Experiments improving some surface conditions such as the surface temperature and land cover show simulation error reduction and improved diurnal cycle.

Continuously on-going hindcast simulations for impact applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anders, Ivonne; Geyer, Beate

2016-04-01

Observations for e.g. temperature, precipitation, radiation, or wind are often used as meteorological forcing for different impact models, like e.g. crop models, urban models, economic models and energy system models. To assess a climate signal, the time period covered by the observation is often too short, they have gaps in between, and are inhomogeneous over time, due to changes in the measurements itself or in the near surrounding. Thus output from global and regional climate models can close the gap and provide homogeneous and physically consistent time series of meteorological parameters. CORDEX evaluation runs performed for the IPCC-AR5 provide a good base for the regional scale. However, with respect to climate services, continuously on-going hindcast simulations are required for regularly updated applications. In this study two projects are presented where hindcast-simulations optimized for a region of interest are performed continuously. The hindcast simulation performed by HZG covering Europe includes the EURO-CORDEX domain with a wider extend to the north to cover the ice edge. The simulation under consideration of the coastDat-experiences is available for the period of 1979 - 2015, prolonged ongoing and fulfills the customer's needs with respect of output variables, levels, intervals and statistical measures. CoastDat - customers are dealing e.g. with naval architecture, renewable energies, offshore wind farming, shipping emissions, coastal flood risk and others. The evaluation of the hindcast is done for Europe by using the EVAL-tool of the CCLM community and by comparison with HYRAS - data for Germany and neighbouring countries. The Climate Research group at the national Austrian weather service, ZAMG, is focusing on high mountain regions and, especially on the Alps. The hindcast-simulation is forced by ERA-interim and optimized for the Alpine Region. One of the main tasks is to capture strong precipitation events which often occur during summer when low pressure systems develop over the Golf of Genoa, moving to the North-East. This leads to floods and landslide events in Austria, Czech Republic and Germany. Such events are not sufficiently represented in the CORDEX-evaluation runs. ZAMG use high quality gridded precipitation and temperature data for the Alpine Region (1-6km) to evaluate the model performance. Data is provided e.g. to hydrological modellers (high water, low water), but also to assess icing capability of infrastructure.

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P.; Antle, J. M.; Nelson, G. C.; Porter, C.; Janssen, S.;

Regional Air Quality forecAST (RAQAST) Over the U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshida, Y.; Choi, Y.; Zeng, T.; Wang, Y.

2005-12-01

A regional chemistry and transport modeling system is used to provide 48-hour forecast of the concentrations of ozone and its precursors over the United States. Meteorological forecast is conducted using the NCAR/Penn State MM5 model. The regional chemistry and transport model simulates the sources, transport, chemistry, and deposition of 24 chemical tracers. The lateral and upper boundary conditions of trace gas concentrations are specified using the monthly mean output from the global GEOS-CHEM model. The initial and boundary conditions for meteorological fields are taken from the NOAA AVN forecast. The forecast has been operational since August, 2003. Model simulations are evaluated using surface, aircraft, and satellite measurements in the A'hindcast' mode. The next step is an automated forecast evaluation system.

Testing a one-dimensional prescription of dynamical shear mixing with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edelmann, P. V. F.; Röpke, F. K.; Hirschi, R.; Georgy, C.; Jones, S.

2017-07-01

Context. The treatment of mixing processes is still one of the major uncertainties in 1D stellar evolution models. This is mostly due to the need to parametrize and approximate aspects of hydrodynamics in hydrostatic codes. In particular, the effect of hydrodynamic instabilities in rotating stars, for example, dynamical shear instability, evades consistent description. Aims: We intend to study the accuracy of the diffusion approximation to dynamical shear in hydrostatic stellar evolution models by comparing 1D models to a first-principle hydrodynamics simulation starting from the same initial conditions. Methods: We chose an initial model calculated with the stellar evolution code GENEC that is just at the onset of a dynamical shear instability but does not show any other instabilities (e.g., convection). This was mapped to the hydrodynamics code SLH to perform a 2D simulation in the equatorial plane. We compare the resulting profiles in the two codes and compute an effective diffusion coefficient for the hydro simulation. Results: Shear instabilities develop in the 2D simulation in the regions predicted by linear theory to become unstable in the 1D stellar evolution model. Angular velocity and chemical composition is redistributed in the unstable region, thereby creating new unstable regions. After a period of time, the system settles in a symmetric, steady state, which is Richardson stable everywhere in the 2D simulation, whereas the instability remains for longer in the 1D model due to the limitations of the current implementation in the 1D code. A spatially resolved diffusion coefficient is extracted by comparing the initial and final profiles of mean atomic mass. Conclusions: The presented simulation gives a first insight on hydrodynamics of shear instabilities in a real stellar environment and even allows us to directly extract an effective diffusion coefficient. We see evidence for a critical Richardson number of 0.25 as regions above this threshold remain stable for the course of the simulation. The movie of the simulation is available at http://www.aanda.org

Regional climate modeling over the Maritime Continent: Assessment of RegCM3-BATS1e and RegCM3-IBIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gianotti, R. L.; Zhang, D.; Eltahir, E. A.

2010-12-01

Despite its importance to global rainfall and circulation processes, the Maritime Continent remains a region that is poorly simulated by climate models. Relatively few studies have been undertaken using a model with fine enough resolution to capture the small-scale spatial heterogeneity of this region and associated land-atmosphere interactions. These studies have shown that even regional climate models (RCMs) struggle to reproduce the climate of this region, particularly the diurnal cycle of rainfall. This study builds on previous work by undertaking a more thorough evaluation of RCM performance in simulating the timing and intensity of rainfall over the Maritime Continent, with identification of major sources of error. An assessment was conducted of the Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) used in a coupled system with two land surface schemes: Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer System Version 1e (BATS1e) and Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS). The model’s performance in simulating precipitation was evaluated against the 3-hourly TRMM 3B42 product, with some validation provided of this TRMM product against ground station meteorological data. It is found that the model suffers from three major errors in the rainfall histogram: underestimation of the frequency of dry periods, overestimation of the frequency of low intensity rainfall, and underestimation of the frequency of high intensity rainfall. Additionally, the model shows error in the timing of the diurnal rainfall peak, particularly over land surfaces. These four errors were largely insensitive to the choice of boundary conditions, convective parameterization scheme or land surface scheme. The presence of a wet or dry bias in the simulated volumes of rainfall was, however, dependent on the choice of convection scheme and boundary conditions. This study also showed that the coupled model system has significant error in overestimation of latent heat flux and evapotranspiration from the land surface, and specifically overestimation of interception loss with concurrent underestimation of transpiration, irrespective of the land surface scheme used. Discussion of the origin of these errors is provided, with some suggestions for improvement.

Simplified human model and pedestrian simulation in the millimeter-wave region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Junghwan; Kim, Seok; Lee, Tae-Yun; Ka, Min-Ho

2016-02-01

The 24 GHz and 77 GHz radar sensors have been studied as a strong candidate for advanced driver assistance systems(ADAS) because of their all-weather capability and accurate range and radial velocity measuring scheme. However, developing a reliable pedestrian recognition system hasmany obstacles due to the inaccurate and non-trivial radar responses at these high frequencies and the many combinations of clothes and accessories. To overcome these obstacles, many researchers used electromagnetic (EM) simulation to characterize the radar scattering response of a human. However, human simulation takes so long time because of the electrically huge size of a human in the millimeter-wave region. To reduce simulation time, some researchers assumed the skin of a human is the perfect electric conductor (PEC) and have simulated the PEC human model using physical optics (PO) algorithm without a specific explanation about how the human body could be modeled with PEC. In this study, the validity of the assumption that the surface of the human body is considered PEC in the EM simulation is verified, and the simulation result of the dry skin human model is compared with that of the PEC human model.

Projected changes in extreme precipitation over Scotland and Northern England using a high-resolution regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Steven C.; Kahana, Ron; Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Fowler, Hayley J.

2018-03-01

The UK Met Office has previously conducted convection-permitting climate simulations over the southern UK (Kendon et al. in Nat Clim Change 4:570-576, 2014). The southern UK simulations have been followed up by a new set of northern UK simulations using the same model configuration. Here we present the mean and extreme precipitation projections from these new simulations. Relative to the southern UK, the northern UK projections show a greater summertime increase of return levels and extreme precipitation intensity in both 1.5 km convection-permitting and 12 km convection-parameterised simulations, but this increase is against a backdrop of large decreases in summertime mean precipitation and precipitation frequency. Similar to the southern UK, projected change is model resolution dependent and the convection-permitting simulation projects a larger intensification. For winter, return level increases are somewhat lower than for the southern UK. Analysis of model biases highlight challenges in simulating the diurnal cycle over high terrain, sensitivity to domain size and driving-GCM biases, and quality issues of radar precipitation observations, which are relevant to the wider regional climate modelling community.

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Climate Impact Assessment for Pacific Northwest Agricultural Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MU, J.; Antle, J. M.; Zhang, H.; Capalbo, S. M.; Eigenbrode, S.; Kruger, C.; Stockle, C.; Wolfhorst, J. D.

2013-12-01

Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are projections of plausible future biophysical and socio-economic conditions used to carry out climate impact assessments for agriculture. The development of RAPs iss motivated by the fact that the various global and regional models used for agricultural climate change impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation or public availability. These practices have hampered attempts at model inter-comparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. This paper aims to (1) present RAPs developed for the principal wheat-producing region of the Pacific Northwest, and to (2) combine these RAPs with downscaled climate data, crop model simulations and economic model simulations to assess climate change impacts on winter wheat production and farm income. This research was carried out as part of a project funded by the USDA known as the Regional Approaches to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest (REACCH). The REACCH study region encompasses the major winter wheat production area in Pacific Northwest and preliminary research shows that farmers producing winter wheat could benefit from future climate change. However, the future world is uncertain in many dimensions, including commodity and input prices, production technology, and policies, as well as increased probability of disturbances (pests and diseases) associated with a changing climate. Many of these factors cannot be modeled, so they are represented in the regional RAPS. The regional RAPS are linked to global agricultural and shared social-economic pathways, and used along with climate change projections to simulate future outcomes for the wheat-based farms in the REACCH region.

Evaluation of Tropospheric Water Vapor Simulations from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaffen, Dian J.; Rosen, Richard D.; Salstein, David A.; Boyle, James S.

1997-01-01

Simulations of humidity from 28 general circulation models for the period 1979-88 from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project are compared with observations from radiosondes over North America and the globe and with satellite microwave observations over the Pacific basin. The simulations of decadal mean values of precipitable water (W) integrated over each of these regions tend to be less moist than the real atmosphere in all three cases; the median model values are approximately 5% less than the observed values. The spread among the simulations is larger over regions of high terrain, which suggests that differences in methods of resolving topographic features are important. The mean elevation of the North American continent is substantially higher in the models than is observed, which may contribute to the overall dry bias of the models over that area. The authors do not find a clear association between the mean topography of a model and its mean W simulation, however, which suggests that the bias over land is not purely a matter of orography. The seasonal cycle of W is reasonably well simulated by the models, although over North America they have a tendency to become moister more quickly in the spring than is observed. The interannual component of the variability of W is not well captured by the models over North America. Globally, the simulated W values show a signal correlated with the Southern Oscillation index but the observations do not. This discrepancy may be related to deficiencies in the radiosonde network, which does not sample the tropical ocean regions well. Overall, the interannual variability of W, as well as its climatology and mean seasonal cycle, are better described by the median of the 28 simulations than by individual members of the ensemble. Tests to learn whether simulated precipitable water, evaporation, and precipitation values may be related to aspects of model formulation yield few clear signals, although the authors find, for example, a tendency for the few models that predict boundary layer depth to have large values of evaporation and precipitation. Controlled experiments, in which aspects of model architecture are systematically varied within individual models, may be necessary to elucidate whether and how model characteristics influence simulations.

Verification of the isotopic composition of precipitation simulated by a regional isotope circulation model over Japan.

PubMed

Tanoue, Masahiro; Ichiyanagi, Kimpei; Yoshimura, Kei

2016-01-01

The isotopic composition (δ(18)O and δ(2)H) of precipitation simulated by a regional isotope circulation model with a horizontal resolution of 10, 30 and 50 km was compared with observations at 56 sites over Japan in 2013. All simulations produced reasonable spatio-temporal variations in δ(18)O in precipitation over Japan, except in January. In January, simulated δ(18)O values in precipitation were higher than observed values on the Pacific side of Japan, especially during an explosively developing extratropical cyclone event. This caused a parameterisation of precipitation formulation about the large fraction of precipitated water to liquid detrained water in the lower troposphere. As a result, most water vapour that transported from the Sea of Japan precipitated on the Sea of Japan side. The isotopic composition of precipitation was a useful verification tool for the parameterisation of precipitation formulation as well as large-scale moisture transport processes in the regional isotope circulation model.

Multiscale Modeling of Polycrystalline NiTi Shape Memory Alloy under Various Plastic Deformation Conditions by Coupling Microstructure Evolution and Macroscopic Mechanical Response

PubMed Central

Jiang, Shuyong; Zhou, Tao; Tu, Jian; Shi, Laixin; Chen, Qiang; Yang, Mingbo

2017-01-01

Numerical modeling of microstructure evolution in various regions during uniaxial compression and canning compression of NiTi shape memory alloy (SMA) are studied through combined macroscopic and microscopic finite element simulation in order to investigate plastic deformation of NiTi SMA at 400 °C. In this approach, the macroscale material behavior is modeled with a relatively coarse finite element mesh, and then the corresponding deformation history in some selected regions in this mesh is extracted by the sub-model technique of finite element code ABAQUS and subsequently used as boundary conditions for the microscale simulation by means of crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM). Simulation results show that NiTi SMA exhibits an inhomogeneous plastic deformation at the microscale. Moreover, regions that suffered canning compression sustain more homogeneous plastic deformation by comparison with the corresponding regions subjected to uniaxial compression. The mitigation of inhomogeneous plastic deformation contributes to reducing the statistically stored dislocation (SSD) density in polycrystalline aggregation and also to reducing the difference of stress level in various regions of deformed NiTi SMA sample, and therefore sustaining large plastic deformation in the canning compression process. PMID:29027925

Multiscale Modeling of Polycrystalline NiTi Shape Memory Alloy under Various Plastic Deformation Conditions by Coupling Microstructure Evolution and Macroscopic Mechanical Response.

PubMed

Hu, Li; Jiang, Shuyong; Zhou, Tao; Tu, Jian; Shi, Laixin; Chen, Qiang; Yang, Mingbo

2017-10-13

Numerical modeling of microstructure evolution in various regions during uniaxial compression and canning compression of NiTi shape memory alloy (SMA) are studied through combined macroscopic and microscopic finite element simulation in order to investigate plastic deformation of NiTi SMA at 400 °C. In this approach, the macroscale material behavior is modeled with a relatively coarse finite element mesh, and then the corresponding deformation history in some selected regions in this mesh is extracted by the sub-model technique of finite element code ABAQUS and subsequently used as boundary conditions for the microscale simulation by means of crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM). Simulation results show that NiTi SMA exhibits an inhomogeneous plastic deformation at the microscale. Moreover, regions that suffered canning compression sustain more homogeneous plastic deformation by comparison with the corresponding regions subjected to uniaxial compression. The mitigation of inhomogeneous plastic deformation contributes to reducing the statistically stored dislocation (SSD) density in polycrystalline aggregation and also to reducing the difference of stress level in various regions of deformed NiTi SMA sample, and therefore sustaining large plastic deformation in the canning compression process.

Slat Cove Noise Modeling: A Posteriori Analysis of Unsteady RANS Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choudhari, Meelan; Khorrami, Mehdi R.; Lockard, David P.; Atkins, Harold L.; Lilley, Geoffrey M.

2002-01-01

A companion paper by Khorrami et al demonstrates the feasibility of simulating the (nominally) self-sustained, large-scale unsteadiness within the leading-edge slat-cove region of multi-element airfoils using unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) equations, provided that the turbulence production term in the underlying two-equation turbulence model is switched off within the cove region. In conjunction with a FfowesWilliams-Hawkings solver, the URANS computations were shown to capture the dominant portion of the acoustic spectrum attributed to slat noise, as well as reproducing the increased intensity of slat cove motions (and, correspondingly, far-field noise as well) at the lower angles of attack. This paper examines that simulation database, augmented by additional simulations, with the objective of transitioning this apparent success to aeroacoustic predictions in an engineering context. As a first step towards this goal, the simulated flow and acoustic fields are compared with experiment and simplified analytical model. Rather intense near-field fluctuations in the simulated flow are found to be associated with unsteady separation along the slat bottom surface, relatively close to the slat cusp. Accuracy of the laminar-cove simulations in this near-wall region is raised to be an open issue. The adjoint Green's function approach is also explored in an attempt to identify the most efficient noise source locations.

Regional demand forecasting and simulation model: user's manual. Task 4, final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parhizgari, A M

1978-09-25

The Department of Energy's Regional Demand Forecasting Model (RDFOR) is an econometric and simulation system designed to estimate annual fuel-sector-region specific consumption of energy for the US. Its purposes are to (1) provide the demand side of the Project Independence Evaluation System (PIES), (2) enhance our empirical insights into the structure of US energy demand, and (3) assist policymakers in their decisions on and formulations of various energy policies and/or scenarios. This report provides a self-contained user's manual for interpreting, utilizing, and implementing RDFOR simulation software packages. Chapters I and II present the theoretical structure and the simulation of RDFOR,more » respectively. Chapter III describes several potential scenarios which are (or have been) utilized in the RDFOR simulations. Chapter IV presents an overview of the complete software package utilized in simulation. Chapter V provides the detailed explanation and documentation of this package. The last chapter describes step-by-step implementation of the simulation package using the two scenarios detailed in Chapter III. The RDFOR model contains 14 fuels: gasoline, electricity, natural gas, distillate and residual fuels, liquid gases, jet fuel, coal, oil, petroleum products, asphalt, petroleum coke, metallurgical coal, and total fuels, spread over residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors.« less

Can Earth System Model Provide Reasonable Natural Runoff Estimates to Support Water Management Studies?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kao, S. C.; Shi, X.; Kumar, J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Mao, J.; Thornton, P. E.

2017-12-01

With the concern of changing hydrologic regime, there is a crucial need to better understand how water availability may change and influence water management decisions in the projected future climate conditions. Despite that surface hydrology has long been simulated by land model within the Earth System modeling (ESM) framework, given the coarser horizontal resolution and lack of engineering-level calibration, raw runoff from ESM is generally discarded by water resource managers when conducting hydro-climate impact assessments. To identify a likely path to improve the credibility of ESM-simulated natural runoff, we conducted regional model simulation using the land component (ALM) of the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) version 1 focusing on the conterminous United States (CONUS). Two very different forcing data sets, including (1) the conventional 0.5° CRUNCEP (v5, 1901-2013) and (2) the 1-km Daymet (v3, 1980-2013) aggregated to 0.5°, were used to conduct 20th century transient simulation with satellite phenology. Additional meteorologic and hydrologic observations, including PRISM precipitation and U.S. Geological Survey WaterWatch runoff, were used for model evaluation. For various CONUS hydrologic regions (such as Pacific Northwest), we found that Daymet can significantly improve the reasonableness of simulated ALM runoff even without intensive calibration. The large dry bias of CRUNCEP precipitation (evaluated by PRISM) in multiple CONUS hydrologic regions is believed to be the main reason causing runoff underestimation. The results suggest that when driving with skillful precipitation estimates, ESM has the ability to produce reasonable natural runoff estimates to support further water management studies. Nevertheless, model calibration will be required for regions (such as Upper Colorado) where ill performance is showed for multiple different forcings.

Regional climate simulations with COSMO-CLM over MENA-CORDEX domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galluccio, Salvatore; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Mercogliano, Paola; Montesarchio, Myriam

2014-05-01

In the frame of WCRP Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), a set of common Regional Climate Downscaling (RCD) domains has been defined, as a prerequisite for the development of model evaluation and climate projection frameworks. CORDEX domains encompass the majority of land areas of the world. In this work, climate simulations have been performed over MENA-CORDEX domain, which includes North-Africa, southern Europe and the whole Arabian peninsula. The non-hydrostatic regional climate model COSMO-CLM has been used. At CMCC, regional climate modelling is a part of an integrated simulation system and it has been used in different European and African projects to provide qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the hydrogeological and public health risks. A series of simulations has been conducted over the MENA-CORDEX area at spatial resolution of 0.44°. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to adjust the model configuration to better reproduce the observed climate data. The numerical simulations were driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis (horizontal resolution of 0.703°) for the period 1979-1984; the first year, was considered as a spin up period. The validation was performed by using several data sets: CRU data set was used to validate temperature, precipitation and cloud cover; MERRA data set was used to validate temperature and precipitation and GPCP for precipitation. The model sensitivity to the external parameters was tested considering two different configurations for the surface albedo. In the first one, albedo is only function of soil-type whereas in the second configuration it is prescribed by two external fields for dry and saturated soil based on MODIS data. Moreover, we tested two aerosol distributions as well, namely the default Tanre aerosol distribution and aerosol maps according to Tegen (NASA/GISS). We found, as expected, a significant sensitivity, in particular on the African region. We also varied tuning and physical parameters, such as the scaling factor for the thickness of the laminar boundary layer for heat, which defines the layer with non-turbulent characteristics, mean entrainment rate for shallow convection, cloud ice threshold for autoconversion, radiation and clouds. We choose such parameters following several literature works, which showed that these parameters mostly affect the fields simulated by the model. However, it is known that the sensitivity of a RCM with respect to parameter variations depends, in general, on the model domain, the temporal and spatial scales and the model variables considered. We made a first set of simulations varying one parameter at a time, using Taylor's diagrams, as well as seasonal cycles and bias maps to take tracking changes in the model performance. Successively, we run a second set of simulations in which we varied two or three parameters at a time to get an optimal configuration. The selected configuration is being used to carry out simulations on a 30-years past period, starting from 1979, for three horizontal resolutions, namely 0.44°, 0.22° and 0.11°.

An Analysis of Simulated Wet Deposition of Mercury from the North American Mercury Model Intercomparison Study

EPA Science Inventory

A previous intercomparison of atmospheric mercury models in North America has been extended to compare simulated and observed wet deposition of mercury. Three regional-scale atmospheric mercury models were tested; CMAQ, REMSAD and TEAM. These models were each employed using thr...

Sensitivity of CO2 Simulation in a GCM to the Convective Transport Algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Z.; Pawson, S.; Collatz, G. J.; Gregg, W. W.; Kawa, S. R.; Baker, D.; Ott, L.

2014-01-01

Convection plays an important role in the transport of heat, moisture and trace gases. In this study, we simulated CO2 concentrations with an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). Three different convective transport algorithms were used. One is a modified Arakawa-Shubert scheme that was native to the GCM; two others used in two off-line chemical transport models (CTMs) were added to the GCM here for comparison purposes. Advanced CO2 surfaced fluxes were used for the simulations. The results were compared to a large quantity of CO2 observation data. We find that the simulation results are sensitive to the convective transport algorithms. Overall, the three simulations are quite realistic and similar to each other in the remote marine regions, but are significantly different in some land regions with strong fluxes such as Amazon and Siberia during the convection seasons. Large biases against CO2 measurements are found in these regions in the control run, which uses the original GCM. The simulation with the simple diffusive algorithm is better. The difference of the two simulations is related to the very different convective transport speed.

Integration of environmental simulation models with satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies: case studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steyaert, Louis T.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Brown, Jesslyn F.; Reed, Bradley C.

1993-01-01

Environmental modelers are testing and evaluating a prototype land cover characteristics database for the conterminous United States developed by the EROS Data Center of the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Nebraska Center for Advanced Land Management Information Technologies. This database was developed from multi temporal, 1-kilometer advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data for 1990 and various ancillary data sets such as elevation, ecological regions, and selected climatic normals. Several case studies using this database were analyzed to illustrate the integration of satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies with land-atmosphere interactions models at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The case studies are representative of contemporary environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management, and environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management and environmental risk assessment. The case studies feature land surface parameterizations for atmospheric mesoscale and global climate models; biogenic-hydrocarbons emissions models; distributed parameter watershed and other hydrological models; and various ecological models such as ecosystem, dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, ecotone variability, and equilibrium vegetation models. The case studies demonstrate the important of multi temporal AVHRR data to develop to develop and maintain a flexible, near-realtime land cover characteristics database. Moreover, such a flexible database is needed to derive various vegetation classification schemes, to aggregate data for nested models, to develop remote sensing algorithms, and to provide data on dynamic landscape characteristics. The case studies illustrate how such a database supports research on spatial heterogeneity, land use, sensitivity analysis, and scaling issues involving regional extrapolations and parameterizations of dynamic land processes within simulation models.

Black carbon and trace gases over South Asia: Measurements and Regional Climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhuyan, Pradip; Pathak, Binita; Parottil, Ajay

2016-07-01

Trace gases and aerosols are simulated with 50 km spatial resolution over South Asian CORDEX domain enclosing the Indian sub-continent and North-East India for the year 2012 using two regional climate models RegCM4 coupled with CLM4.5 and WRF-Chem 3.5. Both models are found to capture the seasonality in the simulated O3 and its precursors, NOx and CO and black carbon concentrations together with the meteorological variables over the Indian Subcontinent as well as over the sub-Himalayan North-Eastern region of India including Bangladesh. The model simulations are compared with the measurements made at Dibrugarh (27.3°N, 94.6°E, 111 m amsl). Both the models are found to capture the observed diurnal and seasonal variations in O3 concentrations with maximum in spring and minimum in monsoon, the correlation being better for WRF-Chem (R~0.77) than RegCM (R~0.54). Simulated NOx and CO is underestimated in all the seasons by both the models, the performance being better in the case of WRF-Chem. The observed difference may be contributed by the bias in the estimation of the O3 precursors NOx and CO in the emission inventories or the error in the simulation of the meteorological variables which influences O3 concentration in both the models. For example, in the pre-monsoon and winter season, the WRF-Chem model simulated shortwave flux overestimates the observation by ~500 Wm-2 while in the monsoon and post monsoon season, simulated shortwave flux is equivalent to the observation. The model predicts higher wind speed in all the seasons especially during night-time. In the post-monsoon and winter season, the simulated wind pattern is reverse to observation with daytime low and night-time high values. Rainfall is overestimated in all the seasons. RegCM-CLM4.5 is found to underestimate rainfall and other meteorological parameters. The WRF-Chem model closely captured the observed values of black carbon mass concentrations during pre-monsoon and summer monsoon seasons, but deviated significantly during the winter season. On the other hand RegCM-CLM4.5 underestimates BC throughout the year. This may be attributed to the inaccuracy in the emission inventories, where the small scale local burnings those generating black carbon over this region is not accounted for either by the satellite (due to detection limit) as well as in the emission inventories considered in the model. Thus further improvement in the emission inventories is recommended in RegCM-CLM4.5.

Understanding the West African monsoon variability and its remote effects: an illustration of the grid point nudging methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bielli, Soline; Douville, Hervé; Pohl, Benjamin

2010-07-01

General circulation models still show deficiencies in simulating the basic features of the West African Monsoon at intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual timescales. It is however, difficult to disentangle the remote versus regional factors that contribute to such deficiencies, and to diagnose their possible consequences for the simulation of the global atmospheric variability. The aim of the present study is to address these questions using the so-called grid point nudging technique, where prognostic atmospheric fields are relaxed either inside or outside the West African Monsoon region toward the ERA40 reanalysis. This regional or quasi-global nudging is tested in ensembles of boreal summer simulations. The impact is evaluated first on the model climatology, then on intraseasonal timescales with an emphasis on North Atlantic/Europe weather regimes, and finally on interannual timescales. Results show that systematic biases in the model climatology over West Africa are mostly of regional origin and have a limited impact outside the domain. A clear impact is found however on the eddy component of the extratropical circulation, in particular over the North Atlantic/European sector. At intraseasonal timescale, the main regional biases also resist to the quasi-global nudging though their magnitude is reduced. Conversely, nudging the model over West Africa exerts a strong impact on the frequency of the two North Atlantic weather regimes that favor the occurrence of heat waves over Europe. Significant impacts are also found at interannual timescale. Not surprisingly, the quasi-global nudging allows the model to capture the variability of large-scale dynamical monsoon indices, but exerts a weaker control on rainfall variability suggesting the additional contribution of regional processes. Conversely, nudging the model toward West Africa suppresses the spurious ENSO teleconnection that is simulated over Europe in the control experiment, thereby emphasizing the relevance of a realistic West African monsoon simulation for seasonal prediction in the extratropics. Further experiments will be devoted to case studies aiming at a better understanding of regional processes governing the monsoon variability and of the possible monsoon teleconnections, especially over Europe.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saravanan, Ramalingam

During the course of this project, we have accomplished the following: 1) Explored the parameter space of component models to minimize regional model bias 2) Assessed the impact of air-sea interaction on hurricanes, focusing in particular on the role of the oceanic barrier layer 3) Contributed to the activities of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group 4) Assessed the impact of lateral and lower boundary conditions on extreme flooding events in the U.S. Midwest in regional model simulations 5) Analyzed the concurrent impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Mode on Atlantic Hurricane activity using observations and regional modelmore » simulations« less

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

Treesearch

John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

2016-01-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

High-resolution regional climate model evaluation using variable-resolution CESM over California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, X.; Rhoades, A.; Ullrich, P. A.; Zarzycki, C. M.

2015-12-01

Understanding the effect of climate change at regional scales remains a topic of intensive research. Though computational constraints remain a problem, high horizontal resolution is needed to represent topographic forcing, which is a significant driver of local climate variability. Although regional climate models (RCMs) have traditionally been used at these scales, variable-resolution global climate models (VRGCMs) have recently arisen as an alternative for studying regional weather and climate allowing two-way interaction between these domains without the need for nudging. In this study, the recently developed variable-resolution option within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is assessed for long-term regional climate modeling over California. Our variable-resolution simulations will focus on relatively high resolutions for climate assessment, namely 28km and 14km regional resolution, which are much more typical for dynamically downscaled studies. For comparison with the more widely used RCM method, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be used for simulations at 27km and 9km. All simulations use the AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) protocols. The time period is from 1979-01-01 to 2005-12-31 (UTC), and year 1979 was discarded as spin up time. The mean climatology across California's diverse climate zones, including temperature and precipitation, is analyzed and contrasted with the Weather Research and Forcasting (WRF) model (as a traditional RCM), regional reanalysis, gridded observational datasets and uniform high-resolution CESM at 0.25 degree with the finite volume (FV) dynamical core. The results show that variable-resolution CESM is competitive in representing regional climatology on both annual and seasonal time scales. This assessment adds value to the use of VRGCMs for projecting climate change over the coming century and improve our understanding of both past and future regional climate related to fine-scale processes. This assessment is also relevant for addressing the scale limitation of current RCMs or VRGCMs when next-generation model resolution increases to ~10km and beyond.

On improving cold region hydrological processes in the Canadian Land Surface Scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganji, Arman; Sushama, Laxmi; Verseghy, Diana; Harvey, Richard

2017-01-01

Regional and global climate model simulated streamflows for high-latitude regions show systematic biases, particularly in the timing and magnitude of spring peak flows. Though these biases could be related to the snow water equivalent and spring temperature biases in models, a good part of these biases is due to the unaccounted effects of non-uniform infiltration capacity of the frozen ground and other related processes. In this paper, the treatment of frozen water in the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS), which is used in the Canadian regional and global climate models, is modified to include fractional permeable area, supercooled liquid water and a new formulation for hydraulic conductivity. The impact of these modifications on the regional hydrology, particularly streamflow, is assessed by comparing three simulations performed with the original and two modified versions of CLASS, driven by atmospheric forcing data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA-Interim) for the 1990-2001 period over a northeast Canadian domain. The two modified versions of CLASS differ in the soil hydraulic conductivity and matric potential formulations, with one version being based on formulations from a previous study and the other one is newly proposed. Results suggest statistically significant decreases in infiltration and therefore soil moisture during the snowmelt season for the simulation with the new hydraulic conductivity and matric potential formulations and fractional permeable area concept compared to the original version of CLASS, which is also reflected in the increased spring surface runoff and streamflows in this simulation with modified CLASS over most of the study domain. The simulated spring peaks and their timing in this simulation are also in better agreement to those observed. This study thus demonstrates the importance of treatment of frozen water for realistic simulation of streamflows.

Introducing CGOLS: The Cholla Galactic Outflow Simulation Suite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Evan E.; Robertson, Brant E.

2018-06-01

We present the Cholla Galactic OutfLow Simulations (CGOLS) suite, a set of extremely high resolution global simulations of isolated disk galaxies designed to clarify the nature of multiphase structure in galactic winds. Using the GPU-based code Cholla, we achieve unprecedented resolution in these simulations, modeling galaxies over a 20 kpc region at a constant resolution of 5 pc. The simulations include a feedback model designed to test the effects of different mass- and energy-loading factors on galactic outflows over kiloparsec scales. In addition to describing the simulation methodology in detail, we also present the results from an adiabatic simulation that tests the frequently adopted analytic galactic wind model of Chevalier & Clegg. Our results indicate that the Chevalier & Clegg model is a good fit to nuclear starburst winds in the nonradiative region of parameter space. Finally, we investigate the role of resolution and convergence in large-scale simulations of multiphase galactic winds. While our largest-scale simulations show convergence of observable features like soft X-ray emission, our tests demonstrate that simulations of this kind with resolutions greater than 10 pc are not yet converged, confirming the need for extreme resolution in order to study the structure of winds and their effects on the circumgalactic medium.

CCN numerical simulations for the GoAmazon with the OLAM model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos-da-Silva, R.; Haas, R.; Barbosa, H. M.; Machado, L.

2015-12-01

Manaus is a large city in the center of the Amazon rainforest. The GoAmazon field project is exploring the region through various data collection and modeling to investigate in impacts of the urban polluted plume on the surrounding pristine areas. In this study a numerical model was applied to simulate the atmospheric dynamics and the Cloud Condensation Nucleai (CCN) concentrations evolution. Simulations with and without the urban plume was performed to identify its dynamics and local impacts. The results show that the land surface characteristics has important hole on the CCN distribution and rainfall over the region. At the south of Manaus the atmospheric dynamics is dominated by the cloud streets that are aligned with the trade winds and the Amazon River. At the north of Manaus, the Negro River produces the advection of a more stable atmosphere causing a higher CCN concentration on the boundary layer. Assuming a local high CCN concentration at the Manaus boundary layer region, the simulations show that the land-atmosphere interaction sets important dynamics on the plume. The model shows that the CCN plume moves along with the flow towards southwest of Manaus following the cloud streets and the river direction having the highest concentrations over the most stable water surface regions.

Assessment of regional downscaling simulations for long term mean, excess and deficit Indian Summer Monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varikoden, Hamza; Mujumdar, M.; Revadekar, J. V.; Sooraj, K. P.; Ramarao, M. V. S.; Sanjay, J.; Krishnan, R.

2018-03-01

This study undertakes a comprehensive assessment of dynamical downscaling of summer monsoon (June-September; JJAS) rainfall over heterogeneous regions namely the Western Ghats (WG), Central India (CI) and North-Eastern Region (NER) for long term mean, excess and deficit episodes for the historical period from 1951 to 2005. This downscaling assessment is based on six Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX) for South Asia (SAS) region, their five driving Global Climate Models (GCM) simulations along with observations from India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Integrated Towards Evaluation for Water Resources (APHRODITE). The analysis reveals an overall reduction of dry bias in rainfall across the regions of Indian sub-continent in most of the downscaled CORDEX-SAS models and in their ensemble mean as compared to that of driving GCMs. The interannual variabilities during historical period are reasonably captured by the ensemble means of CORDEX-SAS simulations with an underestimation of 0.43%, 38% and 52% for the WG, CI and NER, respectively. Upon careful examination of the CORDEX-SAS models and their driving GCMs revealed considerable improvement in the regionally downscaled rainfall. The value addition of dynamical downscaling is apparent over the WG in Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations with an improvement of more than 30% for the long term mean, excess and deficit episodes from their driving GCMs. In the case of NER, the improvement in the downscaled rainfall product is more than 10% for all the episodes. However, the value addition in the CORDEX-SAS simulations for CI region, dominantly influenced by synoptic scale processes, is not clear. Nevertheless, the reduction of dry bias in the complex topographical regions is remarkable. The relative performance of dynamical downscaling of rainfall over complex topography in response to local forcing and orographic lifting depict the value addition (30% over WG and 10% over NER, with a statistical significance of more than 5% level), when compared with the synoptic scale system induced rainfall over the plains of central-India.

Ground motion simulations in Marmara (Turkey) region from 3D finite difference method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aochi, Hideo; Ulrich, Thomas; Douglas, John

2016-04-01

In the framework of the European project MARSite (2012-2016), one of the main contributions from our research team was to provide ground-motion simulations for the Marmara region from various earthquake source scenarios. We adopted a 3D finite difference code, taking into account the 3D structure around the Sea of Marmara (including the bathymetry) and the sea layer. We simulated two moderate earthquakes (about Mw4.5) and found that the 3D structure improves significantly the waveforms compared to the 1D layer model. Simulations were carried out for different earthquakes (moderate point sources and large finite sources) in order to provide shake maps (Aochi and Ulrich, BSSA, 2015), to study the variability of ground-motion parameters (Douglas & Aochi, BSSA, 2016) as well as to provide synthetic seismograms for the blind inversion tests (Diao et al., GJI, 2016). The results are also planned to be integrated in broadband ground-motion simulations, tsunamis generation and simulations of triggered landslides (in progress by different partners). The simulations are freely shared among the partners via the internet and the visualization of the results is diffused on the project's homepage. All these simulations should be seen as a reference for this region, as they are based on the latest knowledge that obtained during the MARSite project, although their refinement and validation of the model parameters and the simulations are a continuing research task relying on continuing observations. The numerical code used, the models and the simulations are available on demand.

Simulating the impact of the large-scale circulation on the 2-m temperature and precipitation climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowden, Jared H.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Otte, Tanya L.

2013-04-01

The impact of the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation on the regional climate is examined using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a regional climate model. The purpose is to understand the potential need for interior grid nudging for dynamical downscaling of global climate model (GCM) output for air quality applications under a changing climate. In this study we downscale the NCEP-Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) Reanalysis using three continuous 20-year WRF simulations: one simulation without interior grid nudging and two using different interior grid nudging methods. The biases in 2-m temperature and precipitation for the simulation without interior grid nudging are unreasonably large with respect to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) over the eastern half of the contiguous United States (CONUS) during the summer when air quality concerns are most relevant. This study examines how these differences arise from errors in predicting the large-scale atmospheric circulation. It is demonstrated that the Bermuda high, which strongly influences the regional climate for much of the eastern half of the CONUS during the summer, is poorly simulated without interior grid nudging. In particular, two summers when the Bermuda high was west (1993) and east (2003) of its climatological position are chosen to illustrate problems in the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies. For both summers, WRF without interior grid nudging fails to simulate the placement of the upper-level anticyclonic (1993) and cyclonic (2003) circulation anomalies. The displacement of the large-scale circulation impacts the lower atmosphere moisture transport and precipitable water, affecting the convective environment and precipitation. Using interior grid nudging improves the large-scale circulation aloft and moisture transport/precipitable water anomalies, thereby improving the simulated 2-m temperature and precipitation. The results demonstrate that constraining the RCM to the large-scale features in the driving fields improves the overall accuracy of the simulated regional climate, and suggest that in the absence of such a constraint, the RCM will likely misrepresent important large-scale shifts in the atmospheric circulation under a future climate.

Improved simulation of tropospheric ozone by a global-multi-regional two-way coupling model system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Y.-Y.; Lin, J.-T.; Chen, J.; Hu, L.

2015-09-01

Small-scale nonlinear chemical and physical processes over pollution source regions affect the global ozone (O3) chemistry, but these processes are not captured by current global chemical transport models (CTMs) and chemistry-climate models that are limited by coarse horizontal resolutions (100-500 km, typically 200 km). These models tend to contain large (and mostly positive) tropospheric O3 biases in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we use a recently built two-way coupling system of the GEOS-Chem CTM to simulate the global tropospheric O3 in 2009. The system couples the global model (at 2.5° long. × 2° lat.) and its three nested models (at 0.667° long. × 0.5° lat.) covering Asia, North America and Europe, respectively. Benefiting from the high resolution, the nested models better capture small-scale processes than the global model alone. In the coupling system, the nested models provide results to modify the global model simulation within respective nested domains while taking the lateral boundary conditions from the global model. Due to the "coupling" effects, the two-way system significantly improves the tropospheric O3 simulation upon the global model alone, as found by comparisons with a suite of ground (1420 sites from WDCGG, GMD, EMEP, and AQS), aircraft (HIPPO and MOZAIC), and satellite measurements (two OMI products). Compared to the global model alone, the two-way coupled simulation enhances the correlation in day-to-day variation of afternoon mean O3 with the ground measurements from 0.53 to 0.68, and it reduces the mean model bias from 10.8 to 6.7 ppb in annual average afternoon O3. Regionally, the coupled model reduces the bias by 4.6 ppb over Europe, 3.9 ppb over North America, and 3.1 ppb over other regions. The two-way coupling brings O3 vertical profiles much closer to the HIPPO (for remote areas) and MOZAIC (for polluted regions) data, reducing the tropospheric (0-9 km) mean bias by 3-10 ppb at most MOZAIC sites and by 5.3 ppb for HIPPO profiles. The two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric column ozone by 3.0 DU (9.5 %, annual mean), bringing them closer to the OMI data in all seasons. Simulation improvements are more significant in the northern hemisphere, and are primarily a result of improved representation of urban-rural contrast and other small-scale processes. The two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric mean hydroxyl radical by 5 % with enhancements by 5 % in the lifetimes of methyl chloroform (from 5.58 to 5.87 yr) and methane (from 9.63 to 10.12 yr), bringing them closer to observation-based estimates. Improving model representations of small-scale processes are a critical step forward to understanding the global tropospheric chemistry.

Regional Climate Models as a Tool for Assessing Changes in the Laurentian Great Lakes Net Basin Supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Music, B.; Mailhot, E.; Nadeau, D.; Irambona, C.; Frigon, A.

2017-12-01

Over the last decades, there has been growing concern about the effects of climate change on the Great Lakes water supply. Most of the modelling studies focusing on the Laurentian Great Lakes do not allow two-way exchanges of water and energy between the atmosphere and the underlying surface, and therefore do not account for important feedback mechanisms. Moreover, energy budget constraint at the land surface is not usually taken into account. To address this issue, several recent climate change studies used high resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for evaluating changes in the hydrological regime of the Great Lakes. As RCMs operate on the concept of water and energy conservation, an internal consistency of the simulated energy and water budget components is assured. In this study we explore several recently generated Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations to investigate the Great Lakes' Net Basin Supply (NBS) in a changing climate. These include simulations of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) supplemented by simulations from several others RCMs participating to the North American CORDEX project (CORDEX-NA). The analysis focuses on the NBS extreme values under nonstationary conditions. The results are expected to provide useful information to the industries in the Great Lakes that all need to include accurate climate change information in their long-term strategy plans to better anticipate impacts of low and/or high water levels.

Climatological simulations of ozone and atmospheric aerosols in the Greater Cairo region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steiner, A. L.; Tawfik, A. B.; Shalaby, A.

An integrated chemistry-climate model (RegCM4-CHEM) simulates present-day climate, ozone and tropospheric aerosols over Egypt with a focus on Greater Cairo (GC) region. The densley populated GC region is known for its severe air quality issues driven by high levels of anthropogenic pollution in conjuction with natural sources such as dust and agricultural burning events. We find that current global emission inventories underestimate key pollutants such as nitrogen oxides and anthropogenic aerosol species. In the GC region, average-ground-based NO2 observations of 40-60 ppb are substantially higher than modeled estimates (5-10 ppb), likely due to model grid resolution, improper boundary layer representation,more » and poor emissions inventories. Observed ozone concentrations range from 35 ppb (winter) to 80 ppb (summer). The model reproduces the seasonal cycle fairly well, but modeled summer ozone is understimated by approximately 15 ppb and exhibits little interannual variability. For aerosols, springtime dust events dominate the seasonal aerosol cycle. The chemistry-climate model captures the springtime peak aerosol optical depth (AOD) of 0.7-1 but is slightly greater than satellite-derived AOD. Observed AOD decreases in the summer and increases again in the fall due to agricultural burning events in the Nile Delta, yet the model underestimates this fall observed AOD peak, as standard emissions inventories underestimate this burning and the resulting aerosol emissions. Our comparison of modeled gas and particulate phase atmospheric chemistry in the GC region indicates that improved emissions inventories of mobile sources and other anthropogenic activities are needed to improve air quality simulations in this region.« less

Does temperature nudging overwhelm aerosol radiative effects in regional integrated climate models?

EPA Science Inventory

For over two decades, data assimilation (popularly known as nudging) methods have been used for improving regional weather and climate simulations by reducing model biases in meteorological parameters and processes. Similar practice is also popular in many regional integrated met...

High resolution regional climate simulation of the Hawaiian Islands - Validation of the historical run from 2003 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, L.; Newman, A. J.; Ikeda, K.; Rasmussen, R.; Clark, M. P.; Monaghan, A. J.

2016-12-01

A high-resolution (a 1.5 km grid spacing domain nested within a 4.5 km grid spacing domain) 10-year regional climate simulation over the entire Hawaiian archipelago is being conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.7.1. Numerical sensitivity simulations of the Hawaiian Rainband Project (HaRP, a filed experiment from July to August in 1990) showed that the simulated precipitation properties are sensitive to initial and lateral boundary conditions, sea surface temperature (SST), land surface models, vertical resolution and cloud droplet concentration. The validations of model simulated statistics of the trade wind inversion, temperature, wind field, cloud cover, and precipitation over the islands against various observations from soundings, satellites, weather stations and rain gauges during the period from 2003 to 2012 will be presented at the meeting.

A Framework for Evaluating Regional-Scale Numerical Photochemical Modeling Systems

EPA Science Inventory

This paper discusses the need for critically evaluating regional-scale (~ 200-2000 km) three dimensional numerical photochemical air quality modeling systems to establish a model's credibility in simulating the spatio-temporal features embedded in the observations. Because of li...

Assessing and mitigating uncertainties in the Noah-MP land-model simulations over the Tibet Plateau region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, G.; Chen, F.; Gan, Y.

2017-12-01

Assessing and mitigating uncertainties in the Noah-MP land-model simulations over the Tibet Plateau region Guo Zhang1, Fei Chen1,2, Yanjun Gan11State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China 2National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA Uncertainties in the Noah with multiparameterization (Noah-MP) land surface model were assessed through physics ensemble simulations for four sparsely-vegetated sites located in the Tibetan Plateau region. Those simulations were evaluated using observations at the four sites during the third Tibetan Plateau Experiment (TIPEX III).The impacts of uncertainties in precipitation data used as forcing conditions, parameterizations of sub-processes such as soil organic matter and rhizosphere on physics-ensemble simulations are identified using two different methods: the natural selection and Tukey's test. This study attempts to answer the following questions: 1) what is the relative contribution of precipitation-forcing uncertainty to the overall uncertainty range of Noah-MP simulations at those sites as compared to that at a more moisture and densely vegetated site; 2) what are the most sensitive physical parameterization for those sites; 3) can we identify the parameterizations that need to be improved? The investigation was conducted by evaluating simulated seasonal evolution of soil temperature, soilmoisture, surface heat fluxes through a number of Noah-MP ensemble simulations.

Simulation studies of chemical erosion on carbon based materials at elevated temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kenmotsu, T.; Kawamura, T.; Li, Zhijie; Ono, T.; Yamamura, Y.

1999-06-01

We simulated the fluence dependence of methane reaction yield in carbon with hydrogen bombardment using the ACAT-DIFFUSE code. The ACAT-DIFFUSE code is a simulation code based on a Monte Carlo method with a binary collision approximation and on solving diffusion equations. The chemical reaction model in carbon was studied by Roth or other researchers. Roth's model is suitable for the steady state methane reaction. But this model cannot estimate the fluence dependence of the methane reaction. Then, we derived an empirical formula based on Roth's model for methane reaction. In this empirical formula, we assumed the reaction region where chemical sputtering due to methane formation takes place. The reaction region corresponds to the peak range of incident hydrogen distribution in the target material. We adopted this empirical formula to the ACAT-DIFFUSE code. The simulation results indicate the similar fluence dependence compared with the experiment result. But, the fluence to achieve the steady state are different between experiment and simulation results.

Simulation of regional ground-water flow in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gannett, Marshall W.; Lite, Kenneth E.

2004-01-01

This report describes a numerical model that simulates regional ground-water flow in the upper Deschutes Basin of central Oregon. Ground water and surface water are intimately connected in the upper Deschutes Basin and most of the flow of the Deschutes River is supplied by ground water. Because of this connection, ground-water pumping and reduction of artificial recharge by lining leaking irrigation canals can reduce the amount of ground water discharging to streams and, consequently, streamflow. The model described in this report is intended to help water-management agencies and the public evaluate how the regional ground-water system and streamflow will respond to ground-water pumping, canal lining, drought, and other stresses. Ground-water flow is simulated in the model by the finite-difference method using MODFLOW and MODFLOWP. The finite-difference grid consists of 8 layers, 127 rows, and 87 columns. All major streams and most principal tributaries in the upper Deschutes Basin are included. Ground-water recharge from precipitation was estimated using a daily water-balance approach. Artificial recharge from leaking irrigation canals and on-farm losses was estimated from diversion and delivery records, seepage studies, and crop data. Ground-water pumpage for irrigation and public water supplies, and evapotranspiration are also included in the model. The model was calibrated to mean annual (1993-95) steady-state conditions using parameter-estimation techniques employing nonlinear regression. Fourteen hydraulic-conductivity parameters and two vertical conductance parameters were determined using nonlinear regression. Final parameter values are all within expected ranges. The general shape and slope of the simulated water-table surface and overall hydraulic-head distribution match the geometry determined from field measurements. The fitted standard deviation for hydraulic head is about 76 feet. The general magnitude and distribution of ground-water discharge to streams is also well simulated throughout the model. Ground-water discharge to streams in the area of the confluence of the Deschutes, Crooked, and Metolius Rivers is closely matched. The model was also calibrated to transient conditions from 1978 to 1997 using traditional trial-and-error methods. Climatic cycles during this period provided an excellent regional hydrologic signal for calibration. Climate-driven water-level fluctuations are simulated with reasonable accuracy over most of the model area. The timing and magnitude of simulated water-level fluctuations caused by annual pulses of recharge from precipitation match those observed reasonably well, given the limitations of the time discretization in the model. Water-level fluctuations caused by annual canal leakage are simulated very well over most of the area where such fluctuations occur. The transient model also simulates the volumetric distribution and temporal variations in ground-water discharge reasonably well. The match between simulated and measured volume of and variations in ground-water discharge is, however, somewhat dependent on geographic scale. The rates of and variations in ground-water discharge are matched best at regional scales. Example simulations were made to demonstrate the utility of the model for evaluating the effects of ground-water pumping or canal lining. Pumping simulations show that pumped water comes largely from aquifer storage when pumping begins, but as the water table stabilizes, the pumping increasingly diminishes the discharge to streams and, hence, streamflow. The time it takes for pumping to affect streamflow varies spatially depending, in general, on the location of pumping relative to the discharge areas. Canal-lining simulations show similar effects.

A new method to assess the added value of high-resolution regional climate simulations: application to the EURO-CORDEX dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soares, P. M. M.; Cardoso, R. M.

2017-12-01

Regional climate models (RCM) are used with increasing resolutions pursuing to represent in an improved way regional to local scale atmospheric phenomena. The EURO-CORDEX simulations at 0.11° and simulations exploiting finer grid spacing approaching the convective-permitting regimes are representative examples. The climate runs are computationally very demanding and do not always show improvements. These depend on the region, variable and object of study. The gains or losses associated with the use of higher resolution in relation to the forcing model (global climate model or reanalysis), or to different resolution RCM simulations, is known as added value. Its characterization is a long-standing issue, and many different added-value measures have been proposed. In the current paper, a new method is proposed to assess the added value of finer resolution simulations, in comparison to its forcing data or coarser resolution counterparts. This approach builds on a probability density function (PDF) matching score, giving a normalised measure of the difference between diverse resolution PDFs, mediated by the observational ones. The distribution added value (DAV) is an objective added value measure that can be applied to any variable, region or temporal scale, from hindcast or historical (non-synchronous) simulations. The DAVs metric and an application to the EURO-CORDEX simulations, for daily temperatures and precipitation, are here presented. The EURO-CORDEX simulations at both resolutions (0.44o,0.11o) display a clear added value in relation to ERA-Interim, with values around 30% in summer and 20% in the intermediate seasons, for precipitation. When both RCM resolutions are directly compared the added value is limited. The regions with the larger precipitation DAVs are areas where convection is relevant, e.g. Alps and Iberia. When looking at the extreme precipitation PDF tail, the higher resolution improvement is generally greater than the low resolution for seasons and regions. For temperature, the added value is smaller. AcknowledgmentsThe authors wish to acknowledge SOLAR (PTDC/GEOMET/7078/2014) and FCT UID/GEO/50019/ 2013 (Instituto Dom Luiz) projects.

A review on vegetation models and applicability to climate simulations at regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myoung, Boksoon; Choi, Yong-Sang; Park, Seon Ki

2011-11-01

The lack of accurate representations of biospheric components and their biophysical and biogeochemical processes is a great source of uncertainty in current climate models. The interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and the climate include exchanges not only of energy, water and momentum, but also of carbon and nitrogen. Reliable simulations of these interactions are crucial for predicting the potential impacts of future climate change and anthropogenic intervention on terrestrial ecosystems. In this paper, two biogeographical (Neilson's rule-based model and BIOME), two biogeochemical (BIOME-BGC and PnET-BGC), and three dynamic global vegetation models (Hybrid, LPJ, and MC1) were reviewed and compared in terms of their biophysical and physiological processes. The advantages and limitations of the models were also addressed. Lastly, the applications of the dynamic global vegetation models to regional climate simulations have been discussed.

Projected changes over western Canada using convection-permitting regional climate model and the pseudo-global warming method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Kurkute, S.; Chen, L.

2017-12-01

Results from the General Circulation Models (GCMs) suggest more frequent and more severe extreme rain events in a climate warmer than the present. However, current GCMs cannot accurately simulate extreme rainfall events of short duration due to their coarse model resolutions and parameterizations. This limitation makes it difficult to provide the detailed quantitative information for the development of regional adaptation and mitigation strategies. Dynamical downscaling using nested Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are able to capture key regional and local climate processes with an affordable computational cost. Recent studies have demonstrated that the downscaling of GCM results with weather-permitting mesoscale models, such as the pseudo-global warming (PGW) technique, could be a viable and economical approach of obtaining valuable climate change information on regional scales. We have conducted a regional climate 4-km Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) simulation with one domain covering the whole western Canada, for a historic run (2000-2015) and a 15-year future run to 2100 and beyond with the PGW forcing. The 4-km resolution allows direct use of microphysics and resolves the convection explicitly, thus providing very convincing spatial detail. With this high-resolution simulation, we are able to study the convective mechanisms, specifically the control of convections over the Prairies, the projected changes of rainfall regimes, and the shift of the convective mechanisms in a warming climate, which has never been examined before numerically at such large scale with such high resolution.

Numerical model for dendritic solidification of binary alloys

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Felicelli, S. D.; Heinrich, J. C.; Poirier, D. R.

1993-01-01

A finite element model capable of simulating solidification of binary alloys and the formation of freckles is presented. It uses a single system of equations to deal with the all-liquid region, the dendritic region, and the all-solid region. The dendritic region is treated as an anisotropic porous medium. The algorithm uses the bilinear isoparametric element, with a penalty function approximation and a Petrov-Galerkin formulation. Numerical simulations are shown in which an NH4Cl-H2O mixture and a Pb-Sn alloy melt are cooled. The solidification process is followed in time. Instabilities in the process can be clearly observed and the final compositions obtained.

Evaluating the impact of chemical boundary conditions on near surface ozone in regional climate-air quality simulations over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akritidis, D.; Zanis, P.; Katragkou, E.; Schultz, M. G.; Tegoulias, I.; Poupkou, A.; Markakis, K.; Pytharoulis, I.; Karacostas, Th.

2013-12-01

A modeling system based on the air quality model CAMx driven off-line by the regional climate model RegCM3 is used for assessing the impact of chemical lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) on near surface ozone over Europe for the period 1996-2000. The RegCM3 and CAMx simulations were performed on a 50 km × 50 km grid over Europe with RegCM3 driven by the NCEP meteorological reanalysis fields and CAMx with chemical LBCs from ECHAM5/MOZART global model. The recent past period (1996-2000) was simulated in three experiments. The first simulation was forced using time and space invariant LBCs, the second was based on ECHAM5/MOZART chemical LBCs fixed for the year 1996 and the third was based on ECHAM5/MOZART chemical LBCs with interannual variability. Anthropogenic and biogenic emissions were kept identical for the three sensitivity runs.

EPA RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS -- MODELS-3/CMAQ OFFERS COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH TO AIR QUALITY MODELING

EPA Science Inventory

Regional and global coordinated efforts are needed to address air quality problems that are growing in complexity and scope. Models-3 CMAQ contains a community multi-scale air quality modeling system for simulating urban to regional scale pollution problems relating to troposphe...

Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Jianyang; McGuire, A. David; Lawrence, David; Burke, Eleanor; Chen, Guangsheng; Chen, Xiaodong; Delire, Christine; Koven, Charles; MacDougall, Andrew; Peng, Shushi; Rinke, Annette; Saito, Kazuyuki; Zhang, Wenxin; Alkama, Ramdane; Bohn, Theodore J.; Ciais, Philippe; Decharme, Bertrand; Gouttevin, Isabelle; Hajima, Tomohiro; Hayes, Daniel J.; Huang, Kun; Ji, Duoying; Krinner, Gerhard; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Miller, Paul A.; Moore, John C.; Smith, Benjamin; Sueyoshi, Tetsuo; Shi, Zheng; Yan, Liming; Liang, Junyi; Jiang, Lifen; Zhang, Qian; Luo, Yiqi

2017-02-01

Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 ± 6 g C m-2 yr-1), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g C m-2 yr-1) over the permafrost region during 2000-2009. By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982-2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800 g C m-2 yr-1), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPPmax). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C (Vcmax_25), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPPmax as well as their sensitivity to climate change.

Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xia, Jianyang; McGuire, A. David; Lawrence, David; Burke, Eleanor J.; Chen, Guangsheng; Chen, Xiaodong; Delire, Christine; Koven, Charles; MacDougall, Andrew; Peng, Shushi; Rinke, Annette; Saito, Kazuyuki; Zhang, Wenxin; Alkama, Ramdane; Bohn, Theodore J.; Ciais, Philippe; Decharme, Bertrand; Gouttevin, Isabelle; Hajima, Tomohiro; Hayes, Daniel J.; Huang, Kun; Ji, Duoying; Krinner, Gerhard; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Miller, Paul A.; Moore, John C.; Smith, Benjamin; Sueyoshi, Tetsuo; Shi, Zheng; Yan, Liming; Liang, Junyi; Jiang, Lifen; Zhang, Qian; Luo, Yiqi

2017-01-01

Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 ± 6 g C m−2 yr−1), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g C m−2 yr−1) over the permafrost region during 2000–2009. By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982–2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800 g C m−2 yr−1), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPPmax). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C (Vcmax_25), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPPmax as well as their sensitivity to climate change.

Exploring the impacts of physics and resolution on aqua-planet simulations from a nonhydrostatic global variable-resolution modeling framework: IMPACTS OF PHYSICS AND RESOLUTION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Chun; Leung, L. Ruby; Park, Sang-Hun

Advances in computing resources are gradually moving regional and global numerical forecasting simulations towards sub-10 km resolution, but global high resolution climate simulations remain a challenge. The non-hydrostatic Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) provides a global framework to achieve very high resolution using regional mesh refinement. Previous studies using the hydrostatic version of MPAS (H-MPAS) with the physics parameterizations of Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4) found notable resolution dependent behaviors. This study revisits the resolution sensitivity using the non-hydrostatic version of MPAS (NH-MPAS) with both CAM4 and CAM5 physics. A series of aqua-planet simulations at global quasi-uniform resolutionsmore » ranging from 240 km to 30 km and global variable resolution simulations with a regional mesh refinement of 30 km resolution over the tropics are analyzed, with a primary focus on the distinct characteristics of NH-MPAS in simulating precipitation, clouds, and large-scale circulation features compared to H-MPAS-CAM4. The resolution sensitivity of total precipitation and column integrated moisture in NH-MPAS is smaller than that in H-MPAS-CAM4. This contributes importantly to the reduced resolution sensitivity of large-scale circulation features such as the inter-tropical convergence zone and Hadley circulation in NH-MPAS compared to H-MPAS. In addition, NH-MPAS shows almost no resolution sensitivity in the simulated westerly jet, in contrast to the obvious poleward shift in H-MPAS with increasing resolution, which is partly explained by differences in the hyperdiffusion coefficients used in the two models that influence wave activity. With the reduced resolution sensitivity, simulations in the refined region of the NH-MPAS global variable resolution configuration exhibit zonally symmetric features that are more comparable to the quasi-uniform high-resolution simulations than those from H-MPAS that displays zonal asymmetry in simulations inside the refined region. Overall, NH-MPAS with CAM5 physics shows less resolution sensitivity compared to CAM4. These results provide a reference for future studies to further explore the use of NH-MPAS for high-resolution climate simulations in idealized and realistic configurations.« less

Global View of Aerosol Vertical Distributions from CALIPSO Lidar Measurements and GOCART Simulations: Regional and Seasonal Variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yu, Hongbin; Chin, Mian; Winker, David M.; Omar, Ali H.; Liu, Zhaoyan; Kittaka, Chieko; Diehl, Thomas

2010-01-01

This study examines seasonal variations of the vertical distribution of aerosols through a statistical analysis of the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) lidar observations from June 2006 to November 2007. A data-screening scheme is developed to attain good quality data in cloud-free conditions, and the polarization measurement is used to separate dust from non-dust aerosol. The CALIPSO aerosol observations are compared with aerosol simulations from the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation Transport (GOCART) model and aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The CALIPSO observations of geographical patterns and seasonal variations of AOD are generally consistent with GOCART simulations and MODIS retrievals especially near source regions, while the magnitude of AOD shows large discrepancies in most regions. Both the CALIPSO observation and GOCART model show that the aerosol extinction scale heights in major dust and smoke source regions are generally higher than that in industrial pollution source regions. The CALIPSO aerosol lidar ratio also generally agrees with GOCART model within 30% on regional scales. Major differences between satellite observations and GOCART model are identified, including (1) an underestimate of aerosol extinction by GOCART over the Indian sub-continent, (2) much larger aerosol extinction calculated by GOCART than observed by CALIPSO in dust source regions, (3) much weaker in magnitude and more concentrated aerosol in the lower atmosphere in CALIPSO observation than GOCART model over transported areas in midlatitudes, and (4) consistently lower aerosol scale height by CALIPSO observation than GOCART model. Possible factors contributing to these differences are discussed.

Regional Climate Simulations over North America: Interaction of Local Processes with Improved Large-Scale Flow.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Robock, Alan

2005-04-01

The reasons for biases in regional climate simulations were investigated in an attempt to discern whether they arise from deficiencies in the model parameterizations or are due to dynamical problems. Using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) forced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis, the detailed climate over North America at 50-km resolution for June 2000 was simulated. First, the RAMS equations were modified to make them applicable to a large region, and its turbulence parameterization was corrected. The initial simulations showed large biases in the location of precipitation patterns and surface air temperatures. By implementing higher-resolution soil data, soil moisture and soil temperature initialization, and corrections to the Kain-Fritch convective scheme, the temperature biases and precipitation amount errors could be removed, but the precipitation location errors remained. The precipitation location biases could only be improved by implementing spectral nudging of the large-scale (wavelength of 2500 km) dynamics in RAMS. This corrected for circulation errors produced by interactions and reflection of the internal domain dynamics with the lateral boundaries where the model was forced by the reanalysis.

The simulation of stratospheric water vapor in the NH summer monsoon regions in a suite of WACCM models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.; Wu, Y.; Huang, Y.; Tilmes, S.

2016-12-01

Water vapor maxima are found in the upper troposphere lower stratosphere (UTLS) over Asian and North America monsoon regions during Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer months. High concentrations of stratospheric water vapor are associated with the upper-level anticyclonic circulation and they play an important role in the radiative forcing for the climate system. However, discrepancies in the simulation of stratospheric water vapor are found among different models. In this study, we use both observational data: Aura Microwave Limb Sounder satellite observations (MLS), the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) and chemistry climate model outputs: different configurations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), including standard configuration of WACCM, WACCM L110, specified chemistry (SC) WACCM and specified dynamics (SD) WACCM. We find that WACCM L110 with finer vertical resolution better simulates the stratospheric water vapor maxima over the summer monsoon regions. To better understand the mechanism, we examine the simulated temperature at around 100 hPa since 100 hPa is known to act as a dehydration mechanism, i.e. the warmer the temperature, the wetter the stratospheric water vapor. We find that both WACCM L110 and SD-WACCM better simulate the temperature at 100 hPa as compared to that of MERRA2. This suggests that improving model vertical resolution and dynamical processes in the UTLS is crucial in simulating the stratospheric water vapor concentrations.

Regional-specific Stochastic Simulation of Spatially-distributed Ground-motion Time Histories using Wavelet Packet Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, D.; Wang, G.

2014-12-01

Stochastic simulation of spatially distributed ground-motion time histories is important for performance-based earthquake design of geographically distributed systems. In this study, we develop a novel technique to stochastically simulate regionalized ground-motion time histories using wavelet packet analysis. First, a transient acceleration time history is characterized by wavelet-packet parameters proposed by Yamamoto and Baker (2013). The wavelet-packet parameters fully characterize ground-motion time histories in terms of energy content, time- frequency-domain characteristics and time-frequency nonstationarity. This study further investigates the spatial cross-correlations of wavelet-packet parameters based on geostatistical analysis of 1500 regionalized ground motion data from eight well-recorded earthquakes in California, Mexico, Japan and Taiwan. The linear model of coregionalization (LMC) is used to develop a permissible spatial cross-correlation model for each parameter group. The geostatistical analysis of ground-motion data from different regions reveals significant dependence of the LMC structure on regional site conditions, which can be characterized by the correlation range of Vs30 in each region. In general, the spatial correlation and cross-correlation of wavelet-packet parameters are stronger if the site condition is more homogeneous. Using the regional-specific spatial cross-correlation model and cokriging technique, wavelet packet parameters at unmeasured locations can be best estimated, and regionalized ground-motion time histories can be synthesized. Case studies and blind tests demonstrated that the simulated ground motions generally agree well with the actual recorded data, if the influence of regional-site conditions is considered. The developed method has great potential to be used in computational-based seismic analysis and loss estimation in a regional scale.

Integrating models to predict regional haze from wildland fire.

Treesearch

D. McKenzie; S.M. O' Neill; N. Larkin; R.A. Norheim

2006-01-01

Visibility impairment from regional haze is a significant problem throughout the continental United States. A substantial portion of regional haze is produced by smoke from prescribed and wildland fires. Here we describe the integration of four simulation models, an array of GIS raster layers, and a set of algorithms for fire-danger calculations into a modeling...

Simulations of the Montréal urban heat island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberge, François; Sushama, Laxmi; Fanta, Gemechu

2017-04-01

The current population of Montreal is around 3.8 million and this number is projected to go up in the coming years to decades, which will lead to vast expansion of urban areas. It is well known that urban morphology impacts weather and climate, and therefore should be taken into consideration in urban planning. This is particularly important in the context of a changing climate, as the intensity and frequency of temperature extremes such as hot spells are projected to increase in future climate, and Urban Heat Island (UHI) can potentially raise already stressful temperatures during such events, which can have significant effects on human health and energy consumption. High-resolution regional climate model simulations can be utilized to understand better urban-weather/climate interactions in current and future climates, particularly the spatio-temporal characteristics of the Urban Heat Island and its impact on other weather/climate characteristics such as urban flows, precipitation etc. This paper will focus on two high-resolution (250 m) simulations performed with (1) the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) and (2) CLASS and TEB (Town Energy Balance) model; TEB is a single layer urban canopy model and is used to model the urban fractions. The two simulations are performed over a domain covering Montreal for the 1960-2015 period, driven by atmospheric forcing data coming from a high-resolution Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) simulation, driven by ERA-Interim. The two simulations are compared to assess the impact of urban regions on selected surface fields and the simulation with both CLASS and TEB is then used to study the spatio-temporal characteristics of the UHI over the study domain. Some preliminary results from a coupled simulation, i.e. CRCM5+CLASS+TEB, for selected years, including extreme warm years, will also be presented.

Modeling the Land Use/Cover Change in an Arid Region Oasis City Constrained by Water Resource and Environmental Policy Change using Cellular Automata Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, X.; Li, X.; Lu, L.

2017-12-01

Land use/cover change (LUCC) is an important subject in the research of global environmental change and sustainable development, while spatial simulation on land use/cover change is one of the key content of LUCC and is also difficult due to the complexity of the system. The cellular automata (CA) model had an irreplaceable role in simulating of land use/cover change process due to the powerful spatial computing power. However, the majority of current CA land use/cover models were binary-state model that could not provide more general information about the overall spatial pattern of land use/cover change. Here, a multi-state logistic-regression-based Markov cellular automata (MLRMCA) model and a multi-state artificial-neural-network-based Markov cellular automata (MANNMCA) model were developed and were used to simulate complex land use/cover evolutionary process in an arid region oasis city constrained by water resource and environmental policy change, the Zhangye city during the period of 1990-2010. The results indicated that the MANNMCA model was superior to MLRMCA model in simulated accuracy. These indicated that by combining the artificial neural network with CA could more effectively capture the complex relationships between the land use/cover change and a set of spatial variables. Although the MLRMCA model were also some advantages, the MANNMCA model was more appropriate for simulating complex land use/cover dynamics. The two proposed models were effective and reliable, and could reflect the spatial evolution of regional land use/cover changes. These have also potential implications for the impact assessment of water resources, ecological restoration, and the sustainable urban development in arid areas.

Downscaling with a nested regional climate model in near-surface fields over the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jiali; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R.

2014-07-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for dynamic downscaling of 2.5-degree National Centers for Environmental Prediction-U.S. Department of Energy Reanalysis II (NCEP-R2) data for 1980-2010 at 12 km resolution over most of North America. The model's performance for surface air temperature and precipitation is evaluated by comparison with high-resolution observational data sets. The model's ability to add value is investigated by comparison with NCEP-R2 data and a 50 km regional climate simulation. The causes for major model bias are studied through additional sensitivity experiments with various model setup/integration approaches and physics representations. The WRF captures the main features of the spatial patterns and annual cycles of air temperature and precipitation over most of the contiguous United States. However, simulated air temperatures over the south central region and precipitation over the Great Plains and the Southwest have significant biases. Allowing longer spin-up time, reducing the nudging strength, or replacing the WRF Single-Moment six-class microphysics with Morrison microphysics reduces the bias over some subregions. However, replacing the Grell-Devenyi cumulus parameterization with Kain-Fritsch shows no improvement. The 12 km simulation does add value above the NCEP-R2 data and the 50 km simulation over mountainous and coastal zones.

Modeling wet deposition of acid substances over the PRD region in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Xingcheng; Fung, Jimmy Chi Hung; Wu, Dongwei

2015-12-01

The Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in southern China has suffered heavily from acid rain in the last 10 years due to the anthropogenic emission of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide. Several measurement-based studies about this issue have been conducted to analyze the chemical composition of precipitation in this area. However, no detailed, high resolution numerical simulation regarding this topic has ever been done in this region. In this study, the WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ system was applied to simulate the wet deposition of acid substances (SO42- and NO3-) in the PRD region from 2009 to 2011 with a resolution of 3 km. The simulation output agreed well with the observation data. Our results showed that Guangzhou was the city most affected by acid rain in this region. The ratio of non-sea-salt sulfate to nitrate indicated that the acid rain in this region belonged to the sulfate-nitrate mixed type. The source apportionment result suggests that point source and super regional source are the ones that contribute the pollutants most in the rain water over PRD Region. The sulfate and nitrate input to some reservoirs via wet deposition was also estimated based on the model simulation. Our results suggest that further cross-city cooperation and emission reduction are needed to further curb acid rain in this region.

Diagnostic Analysis of Ozone Concentrations Simulated by Two Regional-Scale Air Quality Models

EPA Science Inventory

Since the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ) and the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry model (WRF/Chem) use different approaches to simulate the interaction of meteorology and chemistry, this study compares the CMAQ and WRF/Chem air quality simu...

A systematic intercomparison of regional flood frequency analysis models in a simulation framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganora, Daniele; Laio, Francesco; Claps, Pierluigi

2015-04-01

Regional frequency analysis (RFA) is a well-established methodology to provide an estimate of the flood frequency curve (or other discharge-related variables), based on the fundamental concept of substituting temporal information at a site (no data or short time series) by exploiting observations at other sites (spatial information). Different RFA paradigms exist, depending on the way the information is transferred to the site of interest. Despite the wide use of such methodology, a systematic comparison between these paradigms has not been performed. The aim of this study is to provide a framework wherein carrying out the intercomparison: we thus synthetically generate data through Monte Carlo simulations for a number of (virtual) stations, following a GEV parent distribution; different scenarios can be created to represent different spatial heterogeneity patterns by manipulating the parameters of the parent distribution at each station (e.g. with a linear variation in space of the shape parameter of the GEV). A special case is the homogeneous scenario where each station record is sampled from the same parent distribution. For each scenario and each simulation, different regional models are applied to evaluate the 200-year growth factor at each station. Results are than compared to the exact growth factor of each station, which is known in our virtual world. Considered regional approaches include: (i) a single growth curve for the whole region; (ii) a multiple-region model based on cluster analysis which search for an adequate number of homogeneous subregions; (iii) a Region-of-Influence model which defines a homogeneous subregion for each site; (iv) a spatially-smooth estimation procedure based on linear regressions.. A further benchmark model is the at-site estimate based on the analysis of the local record. A comprehensive analysis of the results of the simulations shows that, if the scenario is homogeneous (no spatial variability), all the regional approaches have comparable performances. Moreover, as expected, regional estimates are much more reliable than the at-site estimates. If the scenario is heterogeneous, the performances of the regional models depend on the pattern of heterogeneity; in general, however, the spatially-smooth regional approach performs better than the others, and its performances improve for increasing record lengths. For heterogeneous scenarios, the at-site estimates appear to be comparably more efficient than in the homogeneous case, and in general less biased than the regional estimates.

Simulation study on the trembling shear behavior of eletrorheological fluid.

PubMed

Yang, F; Gong, X L; Xuan, S H; Jiang, W Q; Jiang, C X; Zhang, Z

2011-07-01

The trembling shear behavior of electrorheological (ER) fluids has been investigated by using a computer simulation method, and a shear-slide boundary model is proposed to understand this phenomenon. A thiourea-doped Ba-Ti-O ER fluid which shows a trembling shear behavior was first prepared and then systematically studied by both theoretical and experimental methods. The shear curves of ER fluids in the dynamic state were simulated with shear rates from 0.1 to 1000 s(-1) under different electric fields. The simulation results of the flow curves match the experimental results very well. The trembling shear curves are divided into four regions and each region can be explained by the proposed model.

Simulating crop phenology in the Community Land Model and its impact on energy and carbon fluxes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A reasonable representation of crop phenology and biophysical processes in land surface models is necessary to accurately simulate energy, water and carbon budgets at the field, regional, and global scales. However, the evaluation of crop models that can be coupled to earth system models is relative...

RESULTS OF PHOTOCHEMICAL SIMULATIONS OF SUBGRID SCALE POINT SOURCE EMISSIONS WITH THE MODELS-3 CMAQ MODELING SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) / Plume-in-Grid (PinG) model was applied on a domain encompassing the greater Nashville, Tennessee region. Model simulations were performed for selected days in July 1995 during the Southern Oxidant Study (SOS) field study program wh...

Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan; Hanel, Martin

2018-04-01

The study compares characteristics of observed sub-daily precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic with those simulated by Hadley Centre Regional Model version 3 (HadRM3) and Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model version 4 (RCA4) regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalyses and examines diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation and their dependence on intensity and surface temperature. The observed warm-season (May-September) maxima of short-duration (1, 2 and 3 h) amounts show one diurnal peak in the afternoon, which is simulated reasonably well by RCA4, although the peak occurs too early in the model. HadRM3 provides an unrealistic diurnal cycle with a nighttime peak and an afternoon minimum coinciding with the observed maximum for all three ensemble members, which suggests that convection is not captured realistically. Distorted relationships of the diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation to daily maximum temperature in HadRM3 further evidence that underlying physical mechanisms are misrepresented in this RCM. Goodness-of-fit tests indicate that generalised extreme value distribution is an applicable model for both observed and RCM-simulated precipitation maxima. However, the RCMs are not able to capture the range of the shape parameter estimates of distributions of short-duration precipitation maxima realistically, leading to either too many (nearly all for HadRM3) or too few (RCA4) grid boxes in which the shape parameter corresponds to a heavy tail. This means that the distributions of maxima of sub-daily amounts are distorted in the RCM-simulated data and do not match reality well. Therefore, projected changes of sub-daily precipitation extremes in climate change scenarios based on RCMs not resolving convection need to be interpreted with caution.

Regional Background Fine Particulate Matter

EPA Science Inventory

A modeling system composed of the global model GEOS-Chem providing hourly lateral boundary conditions to the regional model CMAQ was used to calculate the policy relevant background level of fine particulate: matter. Simulations were performed for the full year of 2004 over the d...

Land cover change or land-use intensification: simulating land system change with a global-scale land change model.

PubMed

van Asselen, Sanneke; Verburg, Peter H

2013-12-01

Land-use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land-use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land systems that are characterized by their land cover mosaic, the agricultural management intensity, and livestock. Land system changes are simulated by the model, driven by regional demand for goods and influenced by local factors that either constrain or promote land system conversion. A characteristic of the new model is the endogenous simulation of intensification of agricultural management versus expansion of arable land, and urban versus rural settlements expansion based on land availability in the neighborhood of the location. Model results for the OECD Environmental Outlook scenario show that allocation of increased agricultural production by either management intensification or area expansion varies both among and within world regions, providing useful insight into the land sparing versus land sharing debate. The land system approach allows the inclusion of different types of demand for goods and services from the land system as a driving factor of land system change. Simulation results are compared to observed changes over the 1970-2000 period and projections of other global and regional land change models. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Study on wet scavenging of atmospheric pollutants in south Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiegand, Flavio; Pereira, Felipe Norte; Teixeira, Elba Calesso

2011-09-01

The present paper presents the study of in-cloud and below-cloud SO 2 and SO 42-scavenging processes by applying numerical models in the Candiota region, located in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, South Brazil. The BRAMS (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) model was applied to simulate the vertical structure of the clouds, and the B.V.2 (Below-Cloud Beheng Version 2) scavenging model was applied to simulate in-cloud and below-cloud scavenging processes of the pollutants SO 2 and SO 42-. Five events in 2004 were selected for this study and were sampled at the Candiota Airport station. The concentrations of SO 2 and SO 42- sampled in the air and the simulated meteorological parameters of rainfall episodes were used as input data in the B.V.2, which simulates raindrop interactions associated with the scavenging process. Results for the Candiota region showed that in-cloud scavenging processes were more significant than below-cloud scavenging processes for two of the five events studied, with a contribution of approximately 90-100% of SO 2 and SO 42- concentrations in rainwater. A few adjustments to the original version of B.V.2 were made to allow simulation of scavenging processes in several types of clouds, not only cumulus humilis and cumulus congestus.

A Coupled Regional Climate Simulator for the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faucher, M.; Saucier, F.; Caya, D.

2003-12-01

The climate of Eastern Canada is characterized by atmosphere-ocean-ice interactions due to the closeness of the North Atlantic Ocean and the Labrador Sea. Also, there are three relatively large inner basins: the Gulf of St-Lawrence, the Hudson Bay / Hudson Strait / Foxe Basin system and the Great Lakes, influencing the evolution of weather systems and therefore the regional climate. These basins are characterized by irregular coastlines and variables sea-ice in winter, so that the interactions between the atmosphere and the ocean are more complex. There are coupled general circulation models (GCMs) that are available to study the climate of Eastern Canada, but their resolution (near 350km) is to low to resolve the details of the regional climate of this area and to provide valuable information for climate impact studies. The goal of this work is to develop a coupled regional climate simulator for Eastern Canada to study the climate and its variability, necessary to assess the future climate in a double CO2 situation. An off-line coupling strategy through the interacting fields is used to link the Canadian Regional Climate Model developed at the "Universite du Quebec a Montreal" (CRCM, Caya and Laprise 1999) to the Gulf of St. Lawrence ocean model developed at the "Institut Maurice-Lamontagne" (GOM, Saucier et al. 2002). This strategy involves running both simulators separately and alternatively, using variables from the other simulator to supply the needed forcing fields every day. We present the results of a first series of seasonal simulations performed with this system to show the ability of our climate simulator to reproduce the known characteristics of the regional circulation such as mesoscale oceanic features, fronts and sea-ice. The simulations were done for the period from December 1st, 1989 to March 31st, 1990. The results are compared with those of previous uncoupled runs (Faucher et al. 2003) and with observations.

Spatio-Temporal Simulation and Analysis of Regional Ecological Security Based on Lstm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, C.; Qi, L.; Heming, L.; Karimian, H.; Yuqin, M.

2017-10-01

Region is a complicated system, where human, nature and society interact and influence. Quantitative modeling and simulation of ecology in the region are the key to realize the strategy of regional sustainable development. Traditional machine learning methods have made some achievements in the modeling of regional ecosystems, but it is difficult to determine the learning characteristics and to realize spatio-temporal simulation. Deep learning does not need prior identification of training characteristics, have excellent feature learning ability, can improve the accuracy of model prediction, so the use of deep learning model has a significant advantage. Therefore, we use net primary productivity (NPP), atmospheric optical depth (AOD), moderate-resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), landcover and population data, and use LSTM to do spatio-temporal simulation. We conduct spatial analysis and driving force analysis. The conclusions are as follows: the ecological deficit of northwestern Henan and urban communities such as Zhengzhou is higher. The reason of former lies in the weak land productivity of the Loess Plateau, the irrational crop cultivation mode. The latter lies in the high consumption of resources in the large urban agglomeration; The positive trend of Henan ecological development from 2013 is mainly due to the effective environmental protection policy in the 12th five-year plan; The main driver of the sustained ecological deficit growth of Henan in 2004-2013 is high-speed urbanization, increasing population and goods consumption. This article provides relevant basic scientific support and reference for the regional ecological scientific management and construction.

An evaluation of simulated particulate sulfate over East Asia through global model intercomparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goto, Daisuke; Nakajima, Teruyuki; Dai, Tie; Takemura, Toshihiko; Kajino, Mizuo; Matsui, Hitoshi; Takami, Akinori; Hatakeyama, Shiro; Sugimoto, Nobuo; Shimizu, Atsushi; Ohara, Toshimasa

2015-06-01

Sulfate aerosols simulated by an aerosol module coupled to the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) at a spatial resolution (220 km) widely used by global climate models were evaluated by a comparison with in situ observations and the same aerosol module coupled to the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) over East Asia for January, April, July, and October 2006. The results indicated that a horizontal gradient of sulfate from the source over China to the outflow over Korea-Japan was present in both the simulations and the observations. At the observation sites, the correlation coefficients of the sulfate concentrations between the simulations and the observations were high (NICAM: 0.49-0.89, MIROC: 0.61-0.77), whereas the simulated sulfate concentrations were lower than those obtained by the observation with the normalized mean bias of NICAM being -68 to -54% (all), -77 to -63% (source), and -67 to -30% (outflow) and that of MIROC being -61 to -28% (all), -77 to -63% (source), and -60 to +2% (outflow). Both NICAM and MIROC strongly underpredict surface SO2 over China source regions and Korea-Japan outflow regions, but the MIROC SO2 is much higher than NICAM SO2 over both regions. These differences between the models were mainly explained by differences in the sulfate formation within clouds and the dry deposition of SO2. These results indicated that the uncertainty of the meteorological and cloud fields as well as the vertical transport patterns between the different host climate models has a substantial impact on the simulated sulfate distribution.

Simulating the role of visual selective attention during the development of perceptual completion

PubMed Central

Schlesinger, Matthew; Amso, Dima; Johnson, Scott P.

2014-01-01

We recently proposed a multi-channel, image-filtering model for simulating the development of visual selective attention in young infants (Schlesinger, Amso & Johnson, 2007). The model not only captures the performance of 3-month-olds on a visual search task, but also implicates two cortical regions that may play a role in the development of visual selective attention. In the current simulation study, we used the same model to simulate 3-month-olds’ performance on a second measure, the perceptual unity task. Two parameters in the model – corresponding to areas in the occipital and parietal cortices – were systematically varied while the gaze patterns produced by the model were recorded and subsequently analyzed. Three key findings emerged from the simulation study. First, the model successfully replicated the performance of 3-month-olds on the unity perception task. Second, the model also helps to explain the improved performance of 2-month-olds when the size of the occluder in the unity perception task is reduced. Third, in contrast to our previous simulation results, variation in only one of the two cortical regions simulated (i.e. recurrent activity in posterior parietal cortex) resulted in a performance pattern that matched 3-month-olds. These findings provide additional support for our hypothesis that the development of perceptual completion in early infancy is promoted by progressive improvements in visual selective attention and oculomotor skill. PMID:23106728

Simulating the role of visual selective attention during the development of perceptual completion.

PubMed

Schlesinger, Matthew; Amso, Dima; Johnson, Scott P

2012-11-01

We recently proposed a multi-channel, image-filtering model for simulating the development of visual selective attention in young infants (Schlesinger, Amso & Johnson, 2007). The model not only captures the performance of 3-month-olds on a visual search task, but also implicates two cortical regions that may play a role in the development of visual selective attention. In the current simulation study, we used the same model to simulate 3-month-olds' performance on a second measure, the perceptual unity task. Two parameters in the model - corresponding to areas in the occipital and parietal cortices - were systematically varied while the gaze patterns produced by the model were recorded and subsequently analyzed. Three key findings emerged from the simulation study. First, the model successfully replicated the performance of 3-month-olds on the unity perception task. Second, the model also helps to explain the improved performance of 2-month-olds when the size of the occluder in the unity perception task is reduced. Third, in contrast to our previous simulation results, variation in only one of the two cortical regions simulated (i.e. recurrent activity in posterior parietal cortex) resulted in a performance pattern that matched 3-month-olds. These findings provide additional support for our hypothesis that the development of perceptual completion in early infancy is promoted by progressive improvements in visual selective attention and oculomotor skill. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

A Generalized Form of Context-Dependent Psychophysiological Interactions (gPPI): A Comparison to Standard Approaches

PubMed Central

McLaren, Donald G.; Ries, Michele L.; Xu, Guofan; Johnson, Sterling C.

2012-01-01

Functional MRI (fMRI) allows one to study task-related regional responses and task-dependent connectivity analysis using psychophysiological interaction (PPI) methods. The latter affords the additional opportunity to understand how brain regions interact in a task-dependent manner. The current implementation of PPI in Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM8) is configured primarily to assess connectivity differences between two task conditions, when in practice fMRI tasks frequently employ more than two conditions. Here we evaluate how a generalized form of context-dependent PPI (gPPI; http://www.nitrc.org/projects/gppi), which is configured to automatically accommodate more than two task conditions in the same PPI model by spanning the entire experimental space, compares to the standard implementation in SPM8. These comparisons are made using both simulations and an empirical dataset. In the simulated dataset, we compare the interaction beta estimates to their expected values and model fit using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). We found that interaction beta estimates in gPPI were robust to different simulated data models, were not different from the expected beta value, and had better model fits than when using standard PPI (sPPI) methods. In the empirical dataset, we compare the model fit of the gPPI approach to sPPI. We found that the gPPI approach improved model fit compared to sPPI. There were several regions that became non-significant with gPPI. These regions all showed significantly better model fits with gPPI. Also, there were several regions where task-dependent connectivity was only detected using gPPI methods, also with improved model fit. Regions that were detected with all methods had more similar model fits. These results suggest that gPPI may have greater sensitivity and specificity than standard implementation in SPM. This notion is tempered slightly as there is no gold standard; however, data simulations with a known outcome support our conclusions about gPPI. In sum, the generalized form of context-dependent PPI approach has increased flexibility of statistical modeling, and potentially improves model fit, specificity to true negative findings, and sensitivity to true positive findings. PMID:22484411

Reproducing multi-model ensemble average with Ensemble-averaged Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) in regional climate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.; Wang, G.

2016-12-01

Multi-model ensemble (MME) average is considered the most reliable for simulating both present-day and future climates. It has been a primary reference for making conclusions in major coordinated studies i.e. IPCC Assessment Reports and CORDEX. The biases of individual models cancel out each other in MME average, enabling the ensemble mean to outperform individual members in simulating the mean climate. This enhancement however comes with tremendous computational cost, which is especially inhibiting for regional climate modeling as model uncertainties can originate from both RCMs and the driving GCMs. Here we propose the Ensemble-based Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) approach to regional climate modeling that achieves a similar level of bias reduction at a fraction of cost compared with the conventional MME approach. The new method constructs a single set of initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) by averaging the IBCs of multiple GCMs, and drives the RCM with this ensemble average of IBCs to conduct a single run. Using a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5), we tested the method over West Africa for multiple combination of (up to six) GCMs. Our results indicate that the performance of the ERF method is comparable to that of the MME average in simulating the mean climate. The bias reduction seen in ERF simulations is achieved by using more realistic IBCs in solving the system of equations underlying the RCM physics and dynamics. This endows the new method with a theoretical advantage in addition to reducing computational cost. The ERF output is an unaltered solution of the RCM as opposed to a climate state that might not be physically plausible due to the averaging of multiple solutions with the conventional MME approach. The ERF approach should be considered for use in major international efforts such as CORDEX. Key words: Multi-model ensemble, ensemble analysis, ERF, regional climate modeling

A computational simulation of long-term synaptic potentiation inducing protocol processes with model of CA3 hippocampal microcircuit.

PubMed

Świetlik, D; Białowąs, J; Kusiak, A; Cichońska, D

2018-01-01

An experimental study of computational model of the CA3 region presents cog-nitive and behavioural functions the hippocampus. The main property of the CA3 region is plastic recurrent connectivity, where the connections allow it to behave as an auto-associative memory. The computer simulations showed that CA3 model performs efficient long-term synaptic potentiation (LTP) induction and high rate of sub-millisecond coincidence detection. Average frequency of the CA3 pyramidal cells model was substantially higher in simulations with LTP induction protocol than without the LTP. The entropy of pyramidal cells with LTP seemed to be significantly higher than without LTP induction protocol (p = 0.0001). There was depression of entropy, which was caused by an increase of forgetting coefficient in pyramidal cells simulations without LTP (R = -0.88, p = 0.0008), whereas such correlation did not appear in LTP simulation (p = 0.4458). Our model of CA3 hippocampal formation microcircuit biologically inspired lets you understand neurophysiologic data. (Folia Morphol 2018; 77, 2: 210-220).

Progress toward improving regional atmospheric inversions using airborne measurements: Results from ACT-America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, K. J.; Baier, B.; Baker, D.; Barkley, Z.; Bell, E.; Bowman, K. W.; Browell, E. V.; Campbell, J.; Chen, H. W.; Choi, Y.; DiGangi, J. P.; Dobler, J. T.; Erxleben, W. H.; Fan, T. F.; Feng, S.; Fried, A.; Gaudet, B. J.; Jacobson, A. R.; Keller, K.; Kooi, S. A.; Lauvaux, T.; Lin, B.; McGill, M. J.; McGregor, D.; Michalak, A.; Obland, M. D.; O'Dell, C.; Pal, S.; Parazoo, N.; Pauly, R.; Randazzo, N. A.; Samaddar, A.; Schuh, A. E.; Sweeney, C.; Wesloh, D.; Williams, C. A.; Zhang, F.; Zhou, Y.

2017-12-01

The Atmospheric Carbon and Transport (ACT) - America mission aims to improve our understanding of transport and fluxes of greenhouse gases (GHGs) via airborne campaigns spanning a range of mid-latitude weather conditions, and thus to improve the accuracy and precision of regional inverse flux estimates of GHGs. ACT-America has conducted three field campaigns with two aircraft across three regions of the eastern United States during summer 2016, winter 2017 and fall 2017. Simulations of atmospheric GHGs have been conducted for a subset of these campaigns. We present progress from these campaigns. Mid-summer observations suggest a net biological source of CO2 to the atmosphere in the Gulf Coast states. These results contradict those terrestrial biosphere models that show net uptake of CO2 in this region in summer. Methane observations downwind of major sources in the MidAtlantic suggest that these sources are represented fairly well by existing emissions inventories. Flux estimation in other regions is underway. Spatially-coherent differences in GHGs extend throughout the depth of the troposphere are observed at frontal boundaries in summer and winter. These spatial structures are captured in global and mesoscale simulations, though the simulated GHG mole fractions are sometimes biased with respect to observations, suggesting potential biases in synoptic transport. Mesoscale simulations overestimate spatial differences in ABL CO2 mole fractions in fair weather conditions as compared to observations and the CarbonTracker global inverse modeling system. ABL depths are simulated fairly well by both mesoscale and global modeling systems, suggesting that either weather-scale flux amplitudes are overestimated by CarbonTracker, or the mesoscale model lacks parameterized transport above the ABL. Measurements of OCS, 14CO2, and CO are being used to attribute CO2 variability to biogenic and anthropogenic processes and to expand the evaluation of GHG simulation systems. Cross-evaluation of OCO-2 and airborne lidar XCO2 observations against in situ measurements is defining the regional precision and accuracy of these observations. These findings are moving us toward improved regional GHG inverse flux estimates via better understanding of prior fluxes, atmospheric transport, and satellite CO2 observations.

How much rainfall sustained a Green Sahara during the mid-Holocene?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopcroft, Peter; Valdes, Paul; Harper, Anna

2016-04-01

The present-day Sahara desert has periodically transformed to an area of lakes and vegetation during the Quaternary in response to orbitally-induced changes in the monsoon circulation. Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulations of the mid-Holocene generally underestimate the required monsoon shift, casting doubt on the fidelity of these models. However, the climatic regime that characterised this period remains unclear. To address this, we applied an ensemble of dynamic vegetation model simulations using two different models: JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) a comprehensive land surface model, and LPJ (Lund-Potsdam-Jena model) a widely used dynamic vegetation model. The simulations are forced with a number of idealized climate scenarios, in which an observational climatology is progressively altered with imposed anomalies of precipitation and other related variables, including cloud cover and humidity. The applied anomalies are based on an ensemble of general circulation model simulations, and include seasonal variations but are spatially uniform across the region. When perturbing precipitation alone, a significant increase of at least 700mm/year is required to produce model simulations with non-negligible vegetation coverage in the Sahara region. Changes in related variables including cloud cover, surface radiation fluxes and humidity are found to be important in the models, as they modify the water balance and so affect plant growth. Including anomalies in all of these variables together reduces the precipitation change required for a Green Sahara compared to the case of increasing precipitation alone. We assess whether the precipitation changes implied by these vegetation model simulations are consistent with reconstructions for the mid-Holocene from pollen samples. Further, Earth System models predict precipitation increases that are significantly smaller than that inferred from these vegetation model simulations. Understanding this difference presents an ongoing challenge.

A Regional Model Study of Synoptic Features Over West Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Saloum, Mahaman; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Synoptic weather features over West Africa were studied in simulations by the regional simulation model (RM) at the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies. These pioneering simulations represent the beginning of an effort to adapt regional models for weather and climate prediction over West Africa. The RM uses a cartesian grid with 50 km horizontal resolution and fifteen vertical levels. An ensemble of four simulations was forced with lateral boundary conditions from ECMWF global analyses for the period 8-22 August 1988. The simulated mid-tropospheric circulation includes the skillful development and movement of several African wave disturbances. Wavelet analysis of mid-tropospheric winds detected a dominant periodicity of about 4 days and a secondary periodicity of 5-8 days. Spatial distributions of RM precipitation and precipitation time series were validated against daily rain gauge measurements and ISCCP satellite infrared cloud imagery. The time-space distribution of simulated precipitation was made more realistic by combining the ECMWR initial conditions with a 24-hr spin-up of the moisture field and also by damping high frequency gravity waves by dynamic initialization. Model precipitation "forecasts" over the Central Sahel were correlated with observations for about three days, but reinitializing with observed data on day 5 resulted in a dramatic improvement in the precipitation validation over the remaining 9 days. Results imply that information via the lateral boundary conditions is not always sufficient to minimize departures between simulated and actual precipitation patterns for more than several days. In addition, there was some evidence that the new initialization may increase the simulations' sensitivity to the quality of lateral boundary conditions.

Global and Regional Modeling of Long-Range Transport and Intercontinental Source-Receptor Linkages

EPA Science Inventory

In this study, we compare air quality over North America simulated by the C-IFS global model and the CMAQ regional model driven by boundary conditions from C-IFS against surface and upper air observations. Results indicate substantial differences in model performance for surface ...

Human impact on wildfires varies between regions and with vegetation productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lasslop, Gitta; Kloster, Silvia

2017-11-01

We assess the influence of humans on burned area simulated with a dynamic global vegetation model. The human impact in the model is based on population density and cropland fraction, which were identified as important drivers of burned area in analyses of global datasets, and are commonly used in global models. After an evaluation of the sensitivity to these two variables we extend the model by including an additional effect of the cropland fraction on the fire duration. The general pattern of human influence is similar in both model versions: the strongest human impact is found in regions with intermediate productivity, where fire occurrence is not limited by fuel load or climatic conditions. Human effects in the model increases burned area in the tropics, while in temperate regions burned area is reduced. While the population density is similar on average for the tropical and temperate regions, the cropland fraction is higher in temperate regions, and leads to a strong suppression of fire. The model shows a low human impact in the boreal region, where both population density and cropland fraction is very low and the climatic conditions, as well as the vegetation productivity limit fire. Previous studies attributed a decrease in fire activity found in global charcoal datasets to human activity. This is confirmed by our simulations, which only show a decrease in burned area when the human influence on fire is accounted for, and not with only natural effects on fires. We assess how the vegetation-fire feedback influences the results, by comparing simulations with dynamic vegetation biogeography to simulations with prescribed vegetation. The vegetation-fire feedback increases the human impact on burned area by 10% for present day conditions. These results emphasize that projections of burned area need to account for the interactions between fire, climate, vegetation and humans.

Image-based numerical modeling of HIFU-induced lesions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almekkaway, Mohamed K.; Shehata, Islam A.; Haritonova, Alyona; Ballard, John; Casper, Andrew; Ebbini, Emad

2017-03-01

Atherosclerosis is a chronic vascular disease affecting large and medium sized arteries. Several treatment options are already available for treatment of this disease. Targeting atherosclerotic plaques by high intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) using dual mode ultrasound arrays (DMUA) was recently introduced in literature. We present a finite difference time domain (FDTD) simulation modeling of the wave propagation in heterogeneous medium from the surface of a 3.5 MHz array prototype with 32-elements. After segmentation of the ultrasound image obtained for the treatment region in-vivo, we integrated this anatomical information into our simulation to account for different parameters that may be caused by these multi-region anatomical complexities. The simulation program showed that HIFU was able to induce damage in the prefocal region instead of the target area. The HIFU lesions, as predicted by our simulation, were well correlated with the actual damage detected in histology.

Integration of Multiple Data Sources to Simulate the Dynamics of Land Systems

PubMed Central

Deng, Xiangzheng; Su, Hongbo; Zhan, Jinyan

2008-01-01

In this paper we present and develop a new model, which we have called Dynamics of Land Systems (DLS). The DLS model is capable of integrating multiple data sources to simulate the dynamics of a land system. Three main modules are incorporated in DLS: a spatial regression module, to explore the relationship between land uses and influencing factors, a scenario analysis module of the land uses of a region during the simulation period and a spatial disaggregation module, to allocate land use changes from a regional level to disaggregated grid cells. A case study on Taips County in North China is incorporated in this paper to test the functionality of DLS. The simulation results under the baseline, economic priority and environmental scenarios help to understand the land system dynamics and project near future land-use trajectories of a region, in order to focus management decisions on land uses and land use planning. PMID:27879726

Analysis and Comparison on the Flood Simulation in Typical Hilly & Semi-mountainous Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luan, Qinghua; Wang, Dong; Zhang, Xiang; Liu, Jiahong; Fu, Xiaoran; Zhang, Kun; Ma, Jun

2017-12-01

Water-logging and flood are both serious in hilly and semi-mountainous cities of China, but the related research is rare. Lincheng Economic Development Zone (EDZ) in Hebei Province as the typical city was selected and storm water management model (SWMM) was applied for flood simulation in this study. The regional model was constructed through calibrating and verifying the runoff coefficient of different flood processes. Different designed runoff processes in five-year, ten-year and twenty-year return periods in basic scenario and in the low impact development (LID) scenario, respectively, were simulated and compared. The result shows that: LID measures have effect on peak reduction in the study area, but the effectiveness is not significant; the effectiveness of lagging peak time is poor. These simulation results provide decision support for the rational construction of LID in the study area, and provide the references for regional rain flood management.

Evaluation of a Mesoscale Convective System in Variable-Resolution CESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Payne, A. E.; Jablonowski, C.

2017-12-01

Warm season precipitation over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) follows a well observed diurnal pattern of variability, peaking at night-time, due to the eastward propagation of mesoscale convection systems that develop over the eastern slopes of the Rockies in the late afternoon. While most climate models are unable to adequately capture the organization of convection and characteristic pattern of precipitation over this region, models with high enough resolution to explicitly resolve convection show improvement. However, high resolution simulations are computationally expensive and, in the case of regional climate models, are subject to boundary conditions. Newly developed variable resolution global climate models strike a balance between the benefits of high-resolution regional climate models and the large-scale dynamics of global climate models and low computational cost. Recently developed parameterizations that are insensitive to the model grid scale provide a way to improve model performance. Here, we present an evaluation of the newly available Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) parameterization scheme in a suite of variable-resolution CESM simulations with resolutions ranging from 110 km to 7 km within a regionally refined region centered over the SGP Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site. Simulations utilize the hindcast approach developed by the Department of Energy's Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed (CAPT) for the assessment of climate models. We limit our evaluation to a single mesoscale convective system that passed over the region on May 24, 2008. The effects of grid-resolution on the timing and intensity of precipitation, as well as, on the transition from shallow to deep convection are assessed against ground-based observations from the SGP ARM site, satellite observations and ERA-Interim reanalysis.

Climate change projections over three metropolitan regions in Southeast Brazil using the non-hydrostatic Eta regional climate model at 5-km resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyra, Andre; Tavares, Priscila; Chou, Sin Chan; Sueiro, Gustavo; Dereczynski, Claudine; Sondermann, Marcely; Silva, Adan; Marengo, José; Giarolla, Angélica

2018-04-01

The objective of this work is to assess changes in three metropolitan regions of Southeast Brazil (Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, and Santos) based on the projections produced by the Eta Regional Climate Model (RCM) at very high spatial resolution, 5 km. The region, which is densely populated and extremely active economically, is frequently affected by intense rainfall events that trigger floods and landslides during the austral summer. The analyses are carried out for the period between 1961 and 2100. The 5-km simulations are results from a second downscaling nesting in the HadGEM2-ES RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations. Prior to the assessment of the projections, the higher resolution simulations were evaluated for the historical period (1961-1990). The comparison between the 5-km and the coarser driver model simulations shows that the spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature of the 5-km Eta simulations are in good agreement with the observations. The simulated frequency distribution of the precipitation and temperature extremes from the 5-km Eta RCM is consistent with the observed structure and extreme values. Projections of future climate change using the 5-km Eta runs show stronger warming in the region, primarily during the summer season, while precipitation is strongly reduced. Projected temperature extremes show widespread heating with maximum temperatures increasing by approximately 9 °C in the three metropolitan regions by the end of the century in the RCP8.5 scenario. A trend of drier climate is also projected using indices based on daily precipitation, which reaches annual rainfall reductions of more than 50 % in the state of Rio de Janeiro and between 40 and 45 % in São Paulo and Santos. The magnitude of these changes has negative implications to the population health conditions, energy security, and economy.

Conceptual model and numerical simulation of the ground-water-flow system in the unconsolidated deposits of the Colville River Watershed, Stevens County, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ely, D. Matthew; Kahle, Sue C.

2004-01-01

Increased use of ground- and surface-water supplies in watersheds of Washington State in recent years has created concern that insufficient instream flows remain for fish and other uses. Issuance of new ground-water rights in the Colville River Watershed was halted by the Washington Department of Ecology due to possible hydraulic continuity of the ground and surface waters. A ground-water-flow model was developed to aid in the understanding of the ground-water system and the regional effects of ground-water development alternatives on the water resources of the Colville River Watershed. The Colville River Watershed is underlain by unconsolidated deposits of glacial and non-glacial origin. The surficial geologic units and the deposits at depth were differentiated into aquifers and confining units on the basis of areal extent and general water-bearing characteristics. Five principal hydrogeologic units are recognized in the study area and form the basis of the ground-water-flow model. A steady-state ground-water-flow model of the Colville River Watershed was developed to simulate September 2001 conditions. The simulation period represented a period of below-average precipitation. The model was calibrated using nonlinear regression to minimize the weighted differences or residuals between simulated and measured hydraulic head and stream discharge. Simulated inflow to the model area was 53,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) from precipitation and secondary recharge, and 36,000 acre-ft/yr from stream and lake leakage. Simulated outflow from the model was primarily through discharge to streams and lakes (71,000 acre-ft/yr), ground-water outflow (9,000 acre-ft/yr), and ground-water withdrawals (9,000 acre-ft/yr). Because the period of simulation, September 2001, was extremely dry, all components of the ground-water budget are presumably less than average flow conditions. The calibrated model was used to simulate the possible effects of increased ground-water pumping. Although the steady-state model cannot be used to predict how long it would take for effects to occur, it does simulate the ultimate response to such changes relative to September 2001 (relatively dry) conditions. Steady-state simulations indicated that increased pumping would result in decreased discharge to streams and lakes and decreased ground-water outflow. The location of the simulated increased ground-water pumping determined the primary source of the water withdrawn. Simulated pumping wells in the northern end of the main Colville River valley diverted a large percentage of the pumpage from ground-water outflow. Simulated pumping wells in the southern end of the main Colville River valley diverted a large percentage of the pumpage from flow to rivers and streams. The calibrated steady-state model also was used to simulate predevelopment conditions, during which no ground-water pumping, secondary recharge, or irrigation application occurred. Cumulative streamflow in the Colville River Watershed increased by 1.1 cubic feet per second, or about 36 percent of net ground-water pumping in 2001. The model is intended to simulate the regional ground-water-flow system of the Colville River Watershed and can be used as a tool for water-resource managers to assess the ultimate regional effects of changes in stresses. The regional scale of the model, coupled with relatively sparse data, must be considered when applying the model in areas of poorly understood hydrology, or examining hydrologic conditions at a larger scale than what is appropriate.

Effect of Mesoscale and Multiscale Modeling on the Performance of Kevlar Woven Fabric Subjected to Ballistic Impact: A Numerical Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Xin; Huang, Zhengxiang; Zu, Xudong; Gu, Xiaohui; Xiao, Qiangqiang

2013-12-01

In this study, an optimal finite element model of Kevlar woven fabric that is more computational efficient compared with existing models was developed to simulate ballistic impact onto fabric. Kevlar woven fabric was modeled to yarn level architecture by using the hybrid elements analysis (HEA), which uses solid elements in modeling the yarns at the impact region and uses shell elements in modeling the yarns away from the impact region. Three HEA configurations were constructed, in which the solid element region was set as about one, two, and three times that of the projectile's diameter with impact velocities of 30 m/s (non-perforation case) and 200 m/s (perforation case) to determine the optimal ratio between the solid element region and the shell element region. To further reduce computational time and to maintain the necessary accuracy, three multiscale models were presented also. These multiscale models combine the local region with the yarn level architecture by using the HEA approach and the global region with homogenous level architecture. The effect of the varying ratios of the local and global area on the ballistic performance of fabric was discussed. The deformation and damage mechanisms of fabric were analyzed and compared among numerical models. Simulation results indicate that the multiscale model based on HEA accurately reproduces the baseline results and obviously decreases computational time.

Impact of Variable-Resolution Meshes on Regional Climate Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, L. D.; Skamarock, W. C.; Bruyere, C. L.

2014-12-01

The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is currently being used for seasonal-scale simulations on globally-uniform and regionally-refined meshes. Our ongoing research aims at analyzing simulations of tropical convective activity and tropical cyclone development during one hurricane season over the North Atlantic Ocean, contrasting statistics obtained with a variable-resolution mesh against those obtained with a quasi-uniform mesh. Analyses focus on the spatial distribution, frequency, and intensity of convective and grid-scale precipitations, and their relative contributions to the total precipitation as a function of the horizontal scale. Multi-month simulations initialized on May 1st 2005 using ERA-Interim re-analyses indicate that MPAS performs satisfactorily as a regional climate model for different combinations of horizontal resolutions and transitions between the coarse and refined meshes. Results highlight seamless transitions for convection, cloud microphysics, radiation, and land-surface processes between the quasi-uniform and locally- refined meshes, despite the fact that the physics parameterizations were not developed for variable resolution meshes. Our goal of analyzing the performance of MPAS is twofold. First, we want to establish that MPAS can be successfully used as a regional climate model, bypassing the need for nesting and nudging techniques at the edges of the computational domain as done in traditional regional climate modeling. Second, we want to assess the performance of our convective and cloud microphysics parameterizations as the horizontal resolution varies between the lower-resolution quasi-uniform and higher-resolution locally-refined areas of the global domain.

Impact of Variable-Resolution Meshes on Regional Climate Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, L. D.; Skamarock, W. C.; Bruyere, C. L.

2013-12-01

The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is currently being used for seasonal-scale simulations on globally-uniform and regionally-refined meshes. Our ongoing research aims at analyzing simulations of tropical convective activity and tropical cyclone development during one hurricane season over the North Atlantic Ocean, contrasting statistics obtained with a variable-resolution mesh against those obtained with a quasi-uniform mesh. Analyses focus on the spatial distribution, frequency, and intensity of convective and grid-scale precipitations, and their relative contributions to the total precipitation as a function of the horizontal scale. Multi-month simulations initialized on May 1st 2005 using NCEP/NCAR re-analyses indicate that MPAS performs satisfactorily as a regional climate model for different combinations of horizontal resolutions and transitions between the coarse and refined meshes. Results highlight seamless transitions for convection, cloud microphysics, radiation, and land-surface processes between the quasi-uniform and locally-refined meshes, despite the fact that the physics parameterizations were not developed for variable resolution meshes. Our goal of analyzing the performance of MPAS is twofold. First, we want to establish that MPAS can be successfully used as a regional climate model, bypassing the need for nesting and nudging techniques at the edges of the computational domain as done in traditional regional climate modeling. Second, we want to assess the performance of our convective and cloud microphysics parameterizations as the horizontal resolution varies between the lower-resolution quasi-uniform and higher-resolution locally-refined areas of the global domain.

First Evaluation of the CCAM Aerosol Simulation over Africa: Implications for Regional Climate Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horowitz, H.; Garland, R. M.; Thatcher, M. J.; Naidoo, M.; van der Merwe, J.; Landman, W.; Engelbrecht, F.

2015-12-01

An accurate representation of African aerosols in climate models is needed to understand the regional and global radiative forcing and climate impacts of aerosols, at present and under future climate change. However, aerosol simulations in regional climate models for Africa have not been well-tested. Africa contains the largest single source of biomass-burning smoke aerosols and dust globally. Although aerosols are short-lived relative to greenhouse gases, black carbon in particular is estimated to be second only to carbon dioxide in contributing to warming on a global scale. Moreover, Saharan dust is exported great distances over the Atlantic Ocean, affecting nutrient transport to regions like the Amazon rainforest, which can further impact climate. Biomass burning aerosols are also exported from Africa, westward from Angola over the Atlantic Ocean and off the southeastern coast of South Africa to the Indian Ocean. Here, we perform the first extensive quantitative evaluation of the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) aerosol simulation against monitored data, focusing on aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations over Africa. We analyze historical regional simulations for 1999 - 2012 from CCAM consistent with the experimental design of CORDEX at 50 km global horizontal resolution, through the dynamical downscaling of ERA-Interim data reanalysis data, with the CMIP5 emissions inventory (RCP8.5 scenario). CCAM has a prognostic aerosol scheme for organic carbon, black carbon, sulfate, and dust, and non-prognostic sea salt. The CCAM AOD at 550nm was compared to AOD (observed at 440nm, adjusted to 550nm with the Ångström exponent) from long-term AERONET stations across Africa. Sites strongly impacted by dust and biomass burning and with long continuous records were prioritized. In general, the model captures the monthly trends of the AERONET data. This presentation provides a basis for understanding how well aerosol particles are represented over Africa in regional climate modeling and the potential impact on climate predictions, and is the first large scale climate model-measurement verification of aerosols over Africa that we are aware of. CCAM is widely used for regional climate modeling applications, and we also discuss further improvements to the aerosol parameterizations based on our results.

Numerical simulation of mesoscale surface pressure features with trailing stratiform squall lines using WRF -ARW model over Gangetic West Bengal region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawn, Soma; Satyanarayana, A. N. V.

2018-01-01

In the present study, an attempt has been made to investigate the simulation of mesoscale surface pressure patterns like pre-squall mesolow, mesohigh and wake low associated with leading convective line-trailing stratiform (TS) squall lines over Gangetic West Bengal (GWB). For this purpose, a two way interactive triple nested domain with high resolution WRF model having2 km grid length in the innermost domain is used. The model simulated results are compared with the available in-situ observations obtained as a part of Severe Thunderstorm: Observations and Regional Modeling (STORM) programme, reflectivity products of Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) Kolkata and TRMM rainfall. Three TS squall lines (15 May 2009, 5 May 2010 and 7 May 2010) are chosen during pre-monsoon thunderstorm season for this study. The model simulated results of diurnal variation of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction at the station Kharagpur in GWB region reveal a sudden fall in temperature, increase in the amount of relative humidity and sudden rise in wind speed during the arrival of the storms. Such results are well comparable with the observations though there are some leading or lagging of time in respect of actual occurrences of such events. The study indicates that the model is able to predict the occurrences of three typical surface pressure features namely: pre-squall mesolow, meso high and wake low. The predicted surface parameters like accumulated rainfall, maximum reflectivity and vertical profiles (temperature, relative humidity and winds) are well accorded with the observations. The convective and stratiform precipitation region of the TS squall lines are well represented by the model. A strong downdraft is observed to be a contributory factor for formation of mesohigh in the convective region of the squall line. Wake low is observed to reside in the stratiform rain region and the descending dry air at this place has triggered the wake low through adiabatic warming. This study has established the usefulness of the high resolution model in predicting trailing stratiform squall lines and its associated features over the study region.

MODIS land cover uncertainty in regional climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xue; Messina, Joseph P.; Moore, Nathan J.; Fan, Peilei; Shortridge, Ashton M.

2017-12-01

MODIS land cover datasets are used extensively across the climate modeling community, but inherent uncertainties and associated propagating impacts are rarely discussed. This paper modeled uncertainties embedded within the annual MODIS Land Cover Type (MCD12Q1) products and propagated these uncertainties through the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). First, land cover uncertainties were modeled using pixel-based trajectory analyses from a time series of MCD12Q1 for Urumqi, China. Second, alternative land cover maps were produced based on these categorical uncertainties and passed into RAMS. Finally, simulations from RAMS were analyzed temporally and spatially to reveal impacts. Our study found that MCD12Q1 struggles to discriminate between grasslands and croplands or grasslands and barren in this study area. Such categorical uncertainties have significant impacts on regional climate model outputs. All climate variables examined demonstrated impact across the various regions, with latent heat flux affected most with a magnitude of 4.32 W/m2 in domain average. Impacted areas were spatially connected to locations of greater land cover uncertainty. Both biophysical characteristics and soil moisture settings in regard to land cover types contribute to the variations among simulations. These results indicate that formal land cover uncertainty analysis should be included in MCD12Q1-fed climate modeling as a routine procedure.

AQMEII3 evaluation of regional NA/EU simulations and analysis of scale, boundary conditions and emissions error-dependence

EPA Science Inventory

Through the comparison of several regional-scale chemistry transport modelling systems that simulate meteorology and air quality over the European and American continents, this study aims at i) apportioning the error to the responsible processes using time-scale analysis, ii) hel...

Characterizing and reducing equifinality by constraining a distributed catchment model with regional signatures, local observations, and process understanding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelleher, Christa; McGlynn, Brian; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-07-01

Distributed catchment models are widely used tools for predicting hydrologic behavior. While distributed models require many parameters to describe a system, they are expected to simulate behavior that is more consistent with observed processes. However, obtaining a single set of acceptable parameters can be problematic, as parameter equifinality often results in several behavioral sets that fit observations (typically streamflow). In this study, we investigate the extent to which equifinality impacts a typical distributed modeling application. We outline a hierarchical approach to reduce the number of behavioral sets based on regional, observation-driven, and expert-knowledge-based constraints. For our application, we explore how each of these constraint classes reduced the number of behavioral parameter sets and altered distributions of spatiotemporal simulations, simulating a well-studied headwater catchment, Stringer Creek, Montana, using the distributed hydrology-soil-vegetation model (DHSVM). As a demonstrative exercise, we investigated model performance across 10 000 parameter sets. Constraints on regional signatures, the hydrograph, and two internal measurements of snow water equivalent time series reduced the number of behavioral parameter sets but still left a small number with similar goodness of fit. This subset was ultimately further reduced by incorporating pattern expectations of groundwater table depth across the catchment. Our results suggest that utilizing a hierarchical approach based on regional datasets, observations, and expert knowledge to identify behavioral parameter sets can reduce equifinality and bolster more careful application and simulation of spatiotemporal processes via distributed modeling at the catchment scale.

: “Developing Regional Modeling Techniques Applicable for Simulating Future Climate Conditions in the Carolinas”

EPA Science Inventory

Global climate models (GCMs) are currently used to obtain information about future changes in the large-scale climate. However, such simulations are typically done at coarse spatial resolutions, with model grid boxes on the order of 100 km on a horizontal side. Therefore, techniq...

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of WRF-CMAQ ozone simulations over the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astitha, Marina; Luo, Huiying; Rao, S. Trivikrama; Hogrefe, Christian; Mathur, Rohit; Kumar, Naresh

2017-09-01

Dynamic evaluation of the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)- Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ozone simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two decades of simulations covering the period from 1990 to 2010 is conducted to assess how well the changes in observed ozone air quality are simulated by the model. The changes induced by variations in meteorology and/or emissions are also evaluated during the same timeframe using spectral decomposition of observed and modeled ozone time series with the aim of identifying the underlying forcing mechanisms that control ozone exceedances and making informed recommendations for the optimal use of regional-scale air quality models. The evaluation is focused on the warm season's (i.e., May-September) daily maximum 8-hr (DM8HR) ozone concentrations, the 4th highest (4th) and average of top 10 DM8HR ozone values (top10), as well as the spectrally-decomposed components of the DM8HR ozone time series using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. Results of the dynamic evaluation are presented for six regions in the U.S., consistent with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climatic regions. During the earlier 11-yr period (1990-2000), the simulated and observed regional average trends are not statistically significant. During the more recent 2000-2010 period, all observed trends are statistically significant and WRF-CMAQ captures the observed downward trend in the Southwest and Midwest but under-predicts the downward trends in observations for the other regions. Observational analysis reveals that it is the magnitude of the long-term forcing that dictates the maximum ozone exceedance potential; there is a strong linear relationship between the long-term forcing and the 4th highest or the average of the top10 ozone concentrations in both observations and model output. This finding indicates that improving the model's ability to reproduce the long-term component will also enable better simulation of ozone extreme values that are of interest to regulatory agencies.

The cathode plasma simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suksila, Thada

Since its invention at the University of Stuttgart, Germany in the mid-1960, scientists have been trying to understand and explain the mechanism of the plasma interaction inside the magnetoplasmadynamics (MPD) thruster. Because this thruster creates a larger level of efficiency than combustion thrusters, this MPD thruster is the primary cadidate thruster for a long duration (planetary) spacecraft. However, the complexity of this thruster make it difficult to fully understand the plasma interaction in an MPD thruster while operating the device. That is, there is a great deal of physics involved: the fluid dynamics, the electromagnetics, the plasma dynamics, and the thermodynamics. All of these physics must be included when an MPD thruster operates. In recent years, a computer simulation helped scientists to simulate the experiments by programing the physics theories and comparing the simulation results with the experimental data. Many MPD thruster simulations have been conducted: E. Niewood et al.[5], C. K. J. Hulston et al.[6], K. D. Goodfellow[3], J Rossignol et al.[7]. All of these MPD computer simulations helped the scientists to see how quickly the system responds to the new design parameters. For this work, a 1D MPD thruster simulation was developed to find the voltage drop between the cathode and the plasma regions. Also, the properties such as thermal conductivity, electrical conductivity and heat capacity are temperature and pressure dependent. These two conductivity and heat capacity are usually definded as constant values in many other models. However, this 1D and 2D cylindrical symmetry MPD thruster simulations include both temperature and pressure effects to the electrical, thermal conductivities and heat capacity values interpolated from W. F. Ahtye [4]. Eventhough, the pressure effect is also significant; however, in this study the pressure at 66 Pa was set as a baseline. The 1D MPD thruster simulation includes the sheath region, which is the interface between the plasma and the cathode regions. This sheath model [3] has been fully combined in the 1D simulation. That is, the sheath model calculates the heat flux and the sheath voltage by giving the temperature and the current density. This sheath model must be included in the simulation, as the sheath region is treated differently from the main plasma region. For our 2D cylindrical symmetry simulation, the dimensions of the cathode, the anode, the total current, the pressure, the type of gases, the work function can be changed in the input process as needed for particular interested. Also, the sheath model is still included and fully integrated in this 2D cylindrical symmetry simulation at the cathode surface grids. In addition, the focus of the 2D cylindrical symmetry simulation is to connect the properties on the plasma and the cathode regions on the cathode surface until the MPD thruster reach steady state and estimate the plasma arc attachement edge, electroarc edge, on the cathode surface. Finally, we can understand more about the behavior of an MPD thruster under many different conditions of 2D cylindrical symmetry MPD thruster simulations.

Mesoscale Convective Systems During SCSMEX: Simulations with a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud-Resolving Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Wang, Y.; Qian, J.-H.; Shie, C.-L.; Lau, W. K.-M.; Kakar, R.; Starr, David (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional scale model (with grid size of 20 km) and Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model (with 1 km grid size) are used to perform multi-day integration to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Yantz River during SCSMEX Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, sea surface temperature (SST) variations, and cloud processes are performed to understand the precipitation processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the S. China Sea. Cloud processes can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. The exact location (region) of the flooding can be effected by the soil-rainfall feedback. The GCE-model results captured many observed precipitation characteristics because it used a fine grid size. For example, the model simulated rainfall temporal variation compared quite well to the sounding-estimated rainfall. The results show there are more latent heat fluxes prior to the onset of the monsoon. However, more rainfall was simulated after the onset of the monsoon. This modeling study indicates the latent heat fluxes (or evaporation) have more of an impact on precipitation processes and rainfall in the regional climate model simulations than in the cloud-resolving model simulations. Research is underway to determine if the difference in the grid sizes or the moist processes used in these two models is responsible for the differing influence of surface fluxes an precipitation processes.

The General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) and its applications to agricultural systems in the United States: Chapter 18

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liu, Shuguang; Tan, Zhengxi; Chen, Mingshi; Liu, Jinxun; Wein, Anne; Li, Zhengpeng; Huang, Shengli; Oeding, Jennifer; Young, Claudia; Verma, Shashi B.; Suyker, Andrew E.; Faulkner, Stephen P.

2012-01-01

The General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) was es in individual models, it uses multiple site-scale biogeochemical models to perform model simulations. Second, it adopts Monte Carlo ensemble simulations of each simulation unit (one site/pixel or group of sites/pixels with similar biophysical conditions) to incorporate uncertainties and variability (as measured by variances and covariance) of input variables into model simulations. In this chapter, we illustrate the applications of GEMS at the site and regional scales with an emphasis on incorporating agricultural practices. Challenges in modeling soil carbon dynamics and greenhouse emissions are also discussed.

Simulating carbon and water fluxes at Arctic and boreal ecosystems in Alaska by optimizing the modified BIOME-BGC with eddy covariance data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ueyama, M.; Kondo, M.; Ichii, K.; Iwata, H.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Zona, D.; Rocha, A. V.; Harazono, Y.; Nakai, T.; Oechel, W. C.

2013-12-01

To better predict carbon and water cycles in Arctic ecosystems, we modified a process-based ecosystem model, BIOME-BGC, by introducing new processes: change in active layer depth on permafrost and phenology of tundra vegetation. The modified BIOME-BGC was optimized using an optimization method. The model was constrained using gross primary productivity (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at 23 eddy covariance sites in Alaska, and vegetation/soil carbon from a literature survey. The model was used to simulate regional carbon and water fluxes of Alaska from 1900 to 2011. Simulated regional fluxes were validated with upscaled GPP, ecosystem respiration (RE), and NEE based on two methods: (1) a machine learning technique and (2) a top-down model. Our initial simulation suggests that the original BIOME-BGC with default ecophysiological parameters substantially underestimated GPP and RE for tundra and overestimated those fluxes for boreal forests. We will discuss how optimization using the eddy covariance data impacts the historical simulation by comparing the new version of the model with simulated results from the original BIOME-BGC with default ecophysiological parameters. This suggests that the incorporation of the active layer depth and plant phenology processes is important to include when simulating carbon and water fluxes in Arctic ecosystems.

Impacts of land use/cover classification accuracy on regional climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Jianjun; Qi, Jiaguo; Lofgren, Brent M.; Moore, Nathan; Torbick, Nathan; Olson, Jennifer M.

2007-03-01

Land use/cover change has been recognized as a key component in global change. Various land cover data sets, including historically reconstructed, recently observed, and future projected, have been used in numerous climate modeling studies at regional to global scales. However, little attention has been paid to the effect of land cover classification accuracy on climate simulations, though accuracy assessment has become a routine procedure in land cover production community. In this study, we analyzed the behavior of simulated precipitation in the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) over a range of simulated classification accuracies over a 3 month period. This study found that land cover accuracy under 80% had a strong effect on precipitation especially when the land surface had a greater control of the atmosphere. This effect became stronger as the accuracy decreased. As shown in three follow-on experiments, the effect was further influenced by model parameterizations such as convection schemes and interior nudging, which can mitigate the strength of surface boundary forcings. In reality, land cover accuracy rarely obtains the commonly recommended 85% target. Its effect on climate simulations should therefore be considered, especially when historically reconstructed and future projected land covers are employed.

Sources and pathways of the upscale effects on the Southern Hemisphere jet in MPAS-CAM4 variable-resolution simulations

DOE PAGES

Sakaguchi, Koichi; Lu, Jian; Leung, L. Ruby; ...

2016-10-22

Impacts of regional grid refinement on large-scale circulations (“upscale effects”) were detected in a previous study that used the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere coupled to the physics parameterizations of the Community Atmosphere Model version 4. The strongest upscale effect was identified in the Southern Hemisphere jet during austral winter. This study examines the detailed underlying processes by comparing two simulations at quasi-uniform resolutions of 30 and 120 km to three variable-resolution simulations in which the horizontal grids are regionally refined to 30 km in North America, South America, or Asia from 120 km elsewhere. In all the variable-resolution simulations,more » precipitation increases in convective areas inside the high-resolution domains, as in the reference quasi-uniform high-resolution simulation. With grid refinement encompassing the tropical Americas, the increased condensational heating expands the local divergent circulations (Hadley cell) meridionally such that their descending branch is shifted poleward, which also pushes the baroclinically unstable regions, momentum flux convergence, and the eddy-driven jet poleward. This teleconnection pathway is not found in the reference high-resolution simulation due to a strong resolution sensitivity of cloud radiative forcing that dominates the aforementioned teleconnection signals. The regional refinement over Asia enhances Rossby wave sources and strengthens the upper level southerly flow, both facilitating the cross-equatorial propagation of stationary waves. Evidence indicates that this teleconnection pathway is also found in the reference high-resolution simulation. Lastly, the result underlines the intricate diagnoses needed to understand the upscale effects in global variable-resolution simulations, with implications for science investigations using the computationally efficient modeling framework.« less

Simulation of the West African Monsoon using the MIT Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Im, Eun-Soon; Gianotti, Rebecca L.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2013-04-01

We test the performance of the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM) in simulating the West African Monsoon. MRCM introduces several improvements over Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) including coupling of Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) land surface scheme, a new albedo assignment method, a new convective cloud and rainfall auto-conversion scheme, and a modified boundary layer height and cloud scheme. Using MRCM, we carried out a series of experiments implementing two different land surface schemes (IBIS and BATS) and three convection schemes (Grell with the Fritsch-Chappell closure, standard Emanuel, and modified Emanuel that includes the new convective cloud scheme). Our analysis primarily focused on comparing the precipitation characteristics, surface energy balance and large scale circulations against various observations. We document a significant sensitivity of the West African monsoon simulation to the choices of the land surface and convection schemes. In spite of several deficiencies, the simulation with the combination of IBIS and modified Emanuel schemes shows the best performance reflected in a marked improvement of precipitation in terms of spatial distribution and monsoon features. In particular, the coupling of IBIS leads to representations of the surface energy balance and partitioning that are consistent with observations. Therefore, the major components of the surface energy budget (including radiation fluxes) in the IBIS simulations are in better agreement with observation than those from our BATS simulation, or from previous similar studies (e.g Steiner et al., 2009), both qualitatively and quantitatively. The IBIS simulations also reasonably reproduce the dynamical structure of vertically stratified behavior of the atmospheric circulation with three major components: westerly monsoon flow, African Easterly Jet (AEJ), and Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ). In addition, since the modified Emanuel scheme tends to reduce the precipitation amount, it improves the precipitation over regions suffering from systematic wet bias.

Sources and pathways of the upscale effects on the Southern Hemisphere jet in MPAS-CAM4 variable-resolution simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sakaguchi, Koichi; Lu, Jian; Leung, L. Ruby

Impacts of regional grid refinement on large-scale circulations (“upscale effects”) were detected in a previous study that used the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere coupled to the physics parameterizations of the Community Atmosphere Model version 4. The strongest upscale effect was identified in the Southern Hemisphere jet during austral winter. This study examines the detailed underlying processes by comparing two simulations at quasi-uniform resolutions of 30 and 120 km to three variable-resolution simulations in which the horizontal grids are regionally refined to 30 km in North America, South America, or Asia from 120 km elsewhere. In all the variable-resolution simulations,more » precipitation increases in convective areas inside the high-resolution domains, as in the reference quasi-uniform high-resolution simulation. With grid refinement encompassing the tropical Americas, the increased condensational heating expands the local divergent circulations (Hadley cell) meridionally such that their descending branch is shifted poleward, which also pushes the baroclinically unstable regions, momentum flux convergence, and the eddy-driven jet poleward. This teleconnection pathway is not found in the reference high-resolution simulation due to a strong resolution sensitivity of cloud radiative forcing that dominates the aforementioned teleconnection signals. The regional refinement over Asia enhances Rossby wave sources and strengthens the upper level southerly flow, both facilitating the cross-equatorial propagation of stationary waves. Evidence indicates that this teleconnection pathway is also found in the reference high-resolution simulation. Lastly, the result underlines the intricate diagnoses needed to understand the upscale effects in global variable-resolution simulations, with implications for science investigations using the computationally efficient modeling framework.« less

Use of circulation types classifications to evaluate AR4 climate models over the Euro-Atlantic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastor, M. A.; Casado, M. J.

2012-10-01

This paper presents an evaluation of the multi-model simulations for the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in terms of their ability to simulate the ERA40 circulation types over the Euro-Atlantic region in winter season. Two classification schemes, k-means and SANDRA, have been considered to test the sensitivity of the evaluation results to the classification procedure. The assessment allows establishing different rankings attending spatial and temporal features of the circulation types. Regarding temporal characteristics, in general, all AR4 models tend to underestimate the frequency of occurrence. The best model simulating spatial characteristics is the UKMO-HadGEM1 whereas CCSM3, UKMO-HadGEM1 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the best simulating the temporal features, for both classification schemes. This result agrees with the AR4 models ranking obtained when having analysed the ability of the same AR4 models to simulate Euro-Atlantic variability modes. This study has proved the utility of applying such a synoptic climatology approach as a diagnostic tool for models' assessment. The ability of the models to properly reproduce the position of ridges and troughs and the frequency of synoptic patterns, will therefore improve our confidence in the response of models to future climate changes.

A Portable Regional Weather and Climate Downscaling System Using GEOS-5, LIS-6, WRF, and the NASA Workflow Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kemp, E. M.; Putman, W. M.; Gurganus, J.; Burns, R. W.; Damon, M. R.; McConaughy, G. R.; Seablom, M. S.; Wojcik, G. S.

2009-12-01

We present a regional downscaling system (RDS) suitable for high-resolution weather and climate simulations in multiple supercomputing environments. The RDS is built on the NASA Workflow Tool, a software framework for configuring, running, and managing computer models on multiple platforms with a graphical user interface. The Workflow Tool is used to run the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model Version 5 (GEOS-5), a global atmospheric-ocean model for weather and climate simulations down to 1/4 degree resolution; the NASA Land Information System Version 6 (LIS-6), a land surface modeling system that can simulate soil temperature and moisture profiles; and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) community model, a limited-area atmospheric model for weather and climate simulations down to 1-km resolution. The Workflow Tool allows users to customize model settings to user needs; saves and organizes simulation experiments; distributes model runs across different computer clusters (e.g., the DISCOVER cluster at Goddard Space Flight Center, the Cray CX-1 Desktop Supercomputer, etc.); and handles all file transfers and network communications (e.g., scp connections). Together, the RDS is intended to aid researchers by making simulations as easy as possible to generate on the computer resources available. Initial conditions for LIS-6 and GEOS-5 are provided by Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis data stored on DISCOVER. The LIS-6 is first run for 2-4 years forced by MERRA atmospheric analyses, generating initial conditions for the WRF soil physics. GEOS-5 is then initialized from MERRA data and run for the period of interest. Large-scale atmospheric data, sea-surface temperatures, and sea ice coverage from GEOS-5 are used as boundary conditions for WRF, which is run for the same period of interest. Multiply nested grids are used for both LIS-6 and WRF, with the innermost grid run at a resolution sufficient for typical local weather features (terrain, convection, etc.) All model runs, restarts, and file transfers are coordinated by the Workflow Tool. Two use cases are being pursued. First, the RDS generates regional climate simulations down to 4-km for the Chesapeake Bay region, with WRF output provided as input to more specialized models (e.g., ocean/lake, hydrological, marine biology, and air pollution). This will allow assessment of climate impact on local interests (e.g., changes in Bay water levels and temperatures, innundation, fish kills, etc.) Second, the RDS generates high-resolution hurricane simulations in the tropical North Atlantic. This use case will support Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) of dynamically-targeted lidar observations as part of the NASA Sensor Web Simulator project. Sample results will be presented at the AGU Fall Meeting.

Effect of land model ensemble versus coupled model ensemble on the simulation of precipitation climatology and variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Jiangfeng; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Yang, Zong-Liang; Chen, Haishan

2017-10-01

Through a series of model simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to three different land surface models, this study investigates the impacts of land model ensembles and coupled model ensemble on precipitation simulation. It is found that coupling an ensemble of land models to an atmospheric model has a very minor impact on the improvement of precipitation climatology and variability, but a simple ensemble average of the precipitation from three individually coupled land-atmosphere models produces better results, especially for precipitation variability. The generally weak impact of land processes on precipitation should be the main reason that the land model ensembles do not improve precipitation simulation. However, if there are big biases in the land surface model or land surface data set, correcting them could improve the simulated climate, especially for well-constrained regional climate simulations.

A finite volume model simulation for the Broughton Archipelago, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foreman, M. G. G.; Czajko, P.; Stucchi, D. J.; Guo, M.

A finite volume circulation model is applied to the Broughton Archipelago region of British Columbia, Canada and used to simulate the three-dimensional velocity, temperature, and salinity fields that are required by a companion model for sea lice behaviour, development, and transport. The absence of a high resolution atmospheric model necessitated the installation of nine weather stations throughout the region and the development of a simple data assimilation technique that accounts for topographic steering in interpolating/extrapolating the measured winds to the entire model domain. The circulation model is run for the period of March 13-April 3, 2008 and correlation coefficients between observed and model currents, comparisons between model and observed tidal harmonics, and root mean square differences between observed and model temperatures and salinities all showed generally good agreement. The importance of wind forcing in the near-surface circulation, differences between this simulation and one computed with another model, the effects of bathymetric smoothing on channel velocities, further improvements necessary for this model to accurately simulate conditions in May and June, and the implication of near-surface current patterns at a critical location in the 'migration corridor' of wild juvenile salmon, are also discussed.

Reducing the biases in simulated polar climate by incorporating realistic surface spectral emissivity into the global climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, X.; Chen, X.; Flanner, M.; Yang, P.; Feldman, D.; Kuo, C.

2017-12-01

Surface longwave emissivity can be less than unity and vary significantly with frequency. The emissivities of water, ice, and bare land all exhibit different spectral dependence, for both the far-IR and mid-IR bands. However, most climate models still assume blackbody surface in the longwave (LW) radiation scheme of their atmospheric modules. This study incorporates realistic surface spectral emissivity into the RRTMG_LW, the LW radiation scheme in CAM, which is the atmospheric component of the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.1.1. Then we evaluate its impact on simulated climatology, especially for the polar regions. By ensuring the consistency of the broadband longwave flux across different modules of the CESM, the TOA energy balance in the simulation can be attained without additional tuning of the model. While the impact on global mean surface temperature is small, the surface temperature differences in Polar Regions are statistically significant. The mean surface temperature in Arctic in the modified CESM is 1.5K warmer than that in the standard CESM, reducing the cold bias that the standard CESM has with respect to observations. Accordingly the sea ice fraction in the modified CESM simulation is less than that in the standard CESM simulation by as much as 0.1, which significantly reduces the positive biases in the simulated sea ice coverage by the CESM. The largest sea-ice coverage difference happens in August and September, when new sea ice starts to form. The similar changes can be seen for the simulated Antarctic surface climate as well. In a nutshell, incorporating realistic surface spectral emissivity helps improving the fidelity of simulated surface energy budget in the polar region, which leads to a better simulation of the surface temperature and sea ice coverage.

Results from the VALUE perfect predictor experiment: process-based evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maraun, Douglas; Soares, Pedro; Hertig, Elke; Brands, Swen; Huth, Radan; Cardoso, Rita; Kotlarski, Sven; Casado, Maria; Pongracz, Rita; Bartholy, Judit

2016-04-01

Until recently, the evaluation of downscaled climate model simulations has typically been limited to surface climatologies, including long term means, spatial variability and extremes. But these aspects are often, at least partly, tuned in regional climate models to match observed climate. The tuning issue is of course particularly relevant for bias corrected regional climate models. In general, a good performance of a model for these aspects in present climate does therefore not imply a good performance in simulating climate change. It is now widely accepted that, to increase our condidence in climate change simulations, it is necessary to evaluate how climate models simulate relevant underlying processes. In other words, it is important to assess whether downscaling does the right for the right reason. Therefore, VALUE has carried out a broad process-based evaluation study based on its perfect predictor experiment simulations: the downscaling methods are driven by ERA-Interim data over the period 1979-2008, reference observations are given by a network of 85 meteorological stations covering all European climates. More than 30 methods participated in the evaluation. In order to compare statistical and dynamical methods, only variables provided by both types of approaches could be considered. This limited the analysis to conditioning local surface variables on variables from driving processes that are simulated by ERA-Interim. We considered the following types of processes: at the continental scale, we evaluated the performance of downscaling methods for positive and negative North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic ridge and blocking situations. At synoptic scales, we considered Lamb weather types for selected European regions such as Scandinavia, the United Kingdom, the Iberian Pensinsula or the Alps. At regional scales we considered phenomena such as the Mistral, the Bora or the Iberian coastal jet. Such process-based evaluation helps to attribute biases in surface variables to underlying processes and ultimately to improve climate models.

Simulations of surface winds at the Viking Lander sites using a one-level model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

1992-01-01

The one-level model developed by Mass and Dempsey for use in predicting surface flows in regions of complex terrain was adapted to simulate surface flows at the Viking lander sites on Mars. In the one-level model, prediction equations for surface winds and temperatures are formulated and solved. Surface temperatures change with time in response to diabatic heating, horizontal advection, adiabatic heating and cooling effects, and horizontal diffusion. Surface winds can change in response to horizontal advection, pressure gradient forces, Coriolis forces, surface drag, and horizontal diffusion. Surface pressures are determined by integration of the hydrostatic equation from the surface to some reference level. The model has successfully simulated surface flows under a variety of conditions in complex-terrain regions on Earth.

Coarse-Grained Simulation of Solvated Cellulose Ib Microfibril

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Bingxin; Maranas, Janna; Zhong, Linghao; Zhen Zhao Collaboration

2013-03-01

We construct a coarse-grained (CG) model of cellulose microfibrils in water. The force field is derived from atomistic simulation of a 40 glucose-unit-long microfibril by requiring consistency between the chain configuration, intermolecular packing and hydrogen bonding of the two levels of modeling. Intermolecular interactions such as hydrogen bonding are added sequentially until the force field holds the microfibril crystal structure. This stepwise process enables us to evaluate the importance of each potential and provides insight to ordered and disordered regions. We simulate cellulose microfibrils with 100 to 400 residues, comparable to the smallest observed microfibrils. Microfibrils longer than 100nm would form a bending region along their longitudinal direction. Multiple bends are observed in the microfibril containing 400 residues. Although the cause is not clear, the bending regions may provide us insights about the periodicity and the behavior of the disordered regions in the microfibril.

Vegetation-climate feedback causes reduced precipitation in CMIP5 regional Earth system model simulation over Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Minchao; Smith, Benjamin; Schurgers, Guy; Lindström, Joe; Rummukainen, Markku; Samuelsson, Patrick

2013-04-01

Terrestrial ecosystems have been demonstrated to play a significant role within the climate system, amplifying or dampening climate change via biogeophysical and biogeochemical exchange with the atmosphere and vice versa (Cox et al. 2000; Betts et al. 2004). Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change and studies of vegetation-climate feedback mechanisms on Africa are still limited. Our study is the first application of A coupled Earth system model at regional scale and resolution over Africa. We applied a coupled regional climate-vegetation model, RCA-GUESS (Smith et al. 2011), over the CORDEX Africa domain, forced by boundary conditions from a CanESM2 CMIP5 simulation under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The simulations were from 1961 to 2100 and covered the African continent at a horizontal grid spacing of 0.44°. RCA-GUESS simulates changes in the phenology, productivity, relative cover and population structure of up to eight plant function types (PFTs) in response to forcing from the climate part of the model. These vegetation changes feedback to simulated climate through dynamic adjustments in surface energy fluxes and surface properties. Changes in the net ecosystem-atmosphere carbon flux and its components net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration and emissions from biomass burning were also simulated but do not feedback to climate in our model. Constant land cover was assumed. We compared simulations with and without vegetation feedback switched "on" to assess the influence of vegetation-climate feedback on simulated climate, vegetation and ecosystem carbon cycling. Both positive and negative warming feedbacks were identified in different parts of Africa. In the Sahel savannah zone near 15°N, reduced vegetation cover and productivity, and mortality caused by a deterioration of soil water conditions led to a positive warming feedback mediated by decreased evapotranspiration and increased sensible heat flux between vegetation and the atmosphere. In the equatorial rainforest stronghold region of central Africa, a feedback syndrome characterised by reduced plant production and LAI, a dominance shift from tropical trees to grasses, reduced soil water and reduced rainfall was identified. The likely underlying mechanism was a decline in evaporative water recycling associated with sparser vegetation cover, reminiscent of Earth system model studies in which a similar feedback mechanism was simulated to force dieback of tropical rainforest and reduced precipitation over the Amazon Basin (Cox et al. 2000; Betts et al. 2004; Malhi et al. 2009). Opposite effects are seen in southern Senegal, southern Mali, northern Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, positive evapotranspiration feedback enhancing the cover of trees in forest and savannah, mitigating warming and promoting local moisture recycling as rainfall. We reveal that LAI-driven evapotranspiration feedback may reduced rainfall in parts of Africa, vegetation-climate feedbacks may significantly impact the magnitude and character of simulated changes in climate as well as vegetation and ecosystems in future scenario studies of this region. They should be accounted for in future studies of climate change and its impacts on Africa. Keywords: vegetation-climate feedback, regional climate model, evapotranspiration, CORDEX. References: Betts, R.A., Cox, P.M., Collins, M., Harris, P.P., Huntingford, C. & Jones, C.D. 2004. The role of ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in simulated Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest dieback under global climate warming. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 78: 157-175. Cox, P.M., Betts, R.A., Jones, C.D., Spall, S.A. & Totterdell, I.J. 2000. Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature 408: 184-187. Samuelsson, P., Jones, C., Wilĺen, U., Gollvik, S., Hansson, U. and coauthors. 2011. The Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model RCA3:Model description and performance. Tellus 63A, 4-23. Smith, B., Prentice, I. C. and Sykes, M. T. 2001. Representation of vegetation dynamics in modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: comparing two contrasting approaches within European climate space. Global Ecol. Biogeog. 10, 621-637 Smith, B., Samuelsson, P., Wramneby, A. & Rummukainen, M. 2011. A model of the coupled dynamics of climate, vegetation and terrestrial ecosystem biogeochemistry for regional applications. Tellus 63A: 87-106.

Cross - Scale Intercomparison of Climate Change Impacts Simulated by Regional and Global Hydrological Models in Eleven Large River Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Florke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.;

A comparison of metrics for assessing state-of-the-art climate models and implications for probabilistic projections of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ring, Christoph; Pollinger, Felix; Kaspar-Ott, Irena; Hertig, Elke; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Paeth, Heiko

2018-03-01

A major task of climate science are reliable projections of climate change for the future. To enable more solid statements and to decrease the range of uncertainty, global general circulation models and regional climate models are evaluated based on a 2 × 2 contingency table approach to generate model weights. These weights are compared among different methodologies and their impact on probabilistic projections of temperature and precipitation changes is investigated. Simulated seasonal precipitation and temperature for both 50-year trends and climatological means are assessed at two spatial scales: in seven study regions around the globe and in eight sub-regions of the Mediterranean area. Overall, 24 models of phase 3 and 38 models of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project altogether 159 transient simulations of precipitation and 119 of temperature from four emissions scenarios are evaluated against the ERA-20C reanalysis over the 20th century. The results show high conformity with previous model evaluation studies. The metrics reveal that mean of precipitation and both temperature mean and trend agree well with the reference dataset and indicate improvement for the more recent ensemble mean, especially for temperature. The method is highly transferrable to a variety of further applications in climate science. Overall, there are regional differences of simulation quality, however, these are less pronounced than those between the results for 50-year mean and trend. The trend results are suitable for assigning weighting factors to climate models. Yet, the implications for probabilistic climate projections is strictly dependent on the region and season.

Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.

Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity of impact models designed for either scale to climate variability and change is comparable. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climatemore » change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a much better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases with distinct differences in others, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability, but whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models validated against observed discharge should be used.« less

i4OilSpill, an operational marine oil spill forecasting model for Bohai Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Fangjie; Yao, Fuxin; Zhao, Yang; Wang, Guansuo; Chen, Ge

2016-10-01

Oil spill models can effectively simulate the trajectories and fate of oil slicks, which is an essential element in contingency planning and effective response strategies prepared for oil spill accidents. However, when applied to offshore areas such as the Bohai Sea, the trajectories and fate of oil slicks would be affected by time-varying factors in a regional scale, which are assumed to be constant in most of the present models. In fact, these factors in offshore regions show much more variation over time than in the deep sea, due to offshore bathymetric and climatic characteristics. In this paper, the challenge of parameterizing these offshore factors is tackled. The remote sensing data of the region are used to analyze the modification of wind-induced drift factors, and a well-suited solution is established in parameter correction mechanism for oil spill models. The novelty of the algorithm is the self-adaptive modification mechanism of the drift factors derived from the remote sensing data for the targeted sea region, in respect to empirical constants in the present models. Considering this situation, a new regional oil spill model (i4OilSpill) for the Bohai Sea is developed, which can simulate oil transformation and fate processes by Eulerian-Lagrangian methodology. The forecasting accuracy of the proposed model is proven by the validation results in the comparison between model simulation and subsequent satellite observations on the Penglai 19-3 oil spill accident. The performance of the model parameter correction mechanism is evaluated by comparing with the real spilled oil position extracted from ASAR images.

Test of High-resolution Global and Regional Climate Model Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenchikov, Georgiy; Nikulin, Grigory; Hansson, Ulf; Kjellström, Erik; Raj, Jerry; Bangalath, Hamza; Osipov, Sergey

2014-05-01

In scope of CORDEX project we have simulated the past (1975-2005) and future (2006-2050) climates using the GFDL global high-resolution atmospheric model (HIRAM) and the Rossby Center nested regional model RCA4 for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Both global and nested runs were performed with roughly the same spatial resolution of 25 km in latitude and longitude, and were driven by the 2°x2.5°-resolution fields from GFDL ESM2M IPCC AR5 runs. The global HIRAM simulations could naturally account for interaction of regional processes with the larger-scale circulation features like Indian Summer Monsoon, which is lacking from regional model setup. Therefore in this study we specifically address the consistency of "global" and "regional" downscalings. The performance of RCA4, HIRAM, and ESM2M is tested based on mean, extreme, trends, seasonal and inter-annual variability of surface temperature, precipitation, and winds. The impact of climate change on dust storm activity, extreme precipitation and water resources is specifically addressed. We found that the global and regional climate projections appear to be quite consistent for the modeled period and differ more significantly from ESM2M than between each other.

A Novel Approach for Determining Source–Receptor Relationships in Model Simulations: A Case Study of Black Carbon Transport in Northern Hemisphere Winter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ma, Po-Lun; Gattiker, J. R.; Liu, Xiaohong

2013-06-27

A Gaussian process (GP) emulator is applied to quantify the contribution of local and remote emissions of black carbon (BC) on the BC concentrations in different regions using a Latin Hypercube sampling strategy for emission perturbations in the offline version of the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5.1 (CAM5) simulations. The source-receptor relationships are computed based on simulations constrained by a standard free-running CAM5 simulation and the ERA-Interim reanalysis product. The analysis demonstrates that the emulator is capable of retrieving the source-receptor relationships based on a small number of CAM5 simulations. Most regions are found susceptible to their local emissions. Themore » emulator also finds that the source-receptor relationships retrieved from the model-driven and the reanalysis-driven simulations are very similar, suggesting that the simulated circulation in CAM5 resembles the assimilated meteorology in ERA-Interim. The robustness of the results provides confidence for applying the emulator to detect dose-response signals in the climate system.« less

The origin of consistent protein structure refinement from structural averaging.

PubMed

Park, Hahnbeom; DiMaio, Frank; Baker, David

2015-06-02

Recent studies have shown that explicit solvent molecular dynamics (MD) simulation followed by structural averaging can consistently improve protein structure models. We find that improvement upon averaging is not limited to explicit water MD simulation, as consistent improvements are also observed for more efficient implicit solvent MD or Monte Carlo minimization simulations. To determine the origin of these improvements, we examine the changes in model accuracy brought about by averaging at the individual residue level. We find that the improvement in model quality from averaging results from the superposition of two effects: a dampening of deviations from the correct structure in the least well modeled regions, and a reinforcement of consistent movements towards the correct structure in better modeled regions. These observations are consistent with an energy landscape model in which the magnitude of the energy gradient toward the native structure decreases with increasing distance from the native state. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional Sea Level Changes and Projections over North Pacific Driven by Air-sea interaction and Inter-basin Teleconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Zhu, J.; Xie, S. P.

2017-12-01

After the launch of the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite since 1992, a series of regional sea level changes have been observed. The northwestern Pacific is among the most rapid sea-level-rise regions all over the world. The rising peak occurs around 40°N, with the value reaching 15cm in the past two decades. Moreover, when investigating the projection of global sea level changes using CMIP5 rcp simulations, we found that the northwestern Pacific remains one of the most rapid sea-level-rise regions in the 21st century. To investigate the physical dynamics of present and future sea level changes over the Pacific, we performed a series of numerical simulations with a hierarchy of climate models, including earth system model, ocean model, and atmospheric models, with different complexity. Simulation results indicate that this regional sea level change during the past two decades is mainly caused by the shift of the Kuroshio, which is largely driven by the surface wind anomaly associated with an intensified and northward shifted north Pacific sub-tropical high. Further analysis and simulations show that these changes of sub-tropical high can be primarily attributed to the regional SST forcing from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the remote SST forcings from the tropical Atlantic and the Indian Ocean. In the rcp scenario, on the other hand, two processes are crucial. Firstly, the meridional temperature SST gradient drives a northward wind anomaly across the equator, raising the sea level all over the North Pacific. Secondly, the atmospheric circulation changes around the sub-tropical Pacific further increase the sea level of the North Western Pacific. The coastal region around the Northwest Pacific is the most densely populated region around the world, therefore more attention must be paid to the sea level changes over this region, as suggested by our study.

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE PAGES

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

2016-01-01

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

A Semi-Structured MODFLOW-USG Model to Evaluate Local Water Sources to Wells for Decision Support.

PubMed

Feinstein, Daniel T; Fienen, Michael N; Reeves, Howard W; Langevin, Christian D

2016-07-01

In order to better represent the configuration of the stream network and simulate local groundwater-surface water interactions, a version of MODFLOW with refined spacing in the topmost layer was applied to a Lake Michigan Basin (LMB) regional groundwater-flow model developed by the U.S. Geological. Regional MODFLOW models commonly use coarse grids over large areas; this coarse spacing precludes model application to local management issues (e.g., surface-water depletion by wells) without recourse to labor-intensive inset models. Implementation of an unstructured formulation within the MODFLOW framework (MODFLOW-USG) allows application of regional models to address local problems. A "semi-structured" approach (uniform lateral spacing within layers, different lateral spacing among layers) was tested using the LMB regional model. The parent 20-layer model with uniform 5000-foot (1524-m) lateral spacing was converted to 4 layers with 500-foot (152-m) spacing in the top glacial (Quaternary) layer, where surface water features are located, overlying coarser resolution layers representing deeper deposits. This semi-structured version of the LMB model reproduces regional flow conditions, whereas the finer resolution in the top layer improves the accuracy of the simulated response of surface water to shallow wells. One application of the semi-structured LMB model is to provide statistical measures of the correlation between modeled inputs and the simulated amount of water that wells derive from local surface water. The relations identified in this paper serve as the basis for metamodels to predict (with uncertainty) surface-water depletion in response to shallow pumping within and potentially beyond the modeled area, see Fienen et al. (2015a). Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

A semi-structured MODFLOW-USG model to evaluate local water sources to wells for decision support

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feinstein, Daniel T.; Fienen, Michael N.; Reeves, Howard W.; Langevin, Christian D.

2016-01-01

In order to better represent the configuration of the stream network and simulate local groundwater-surface water interactions, a version of MODFLOW with refined spacing in the topmost layer was applied to a Lake Michigan Basin (LMB) regional groundwater-flow model developed by the U.S. Geological. Regional MODFLOW models commonly use coarse grids over large areas; this coarse spacing precludes model application to local management issues (e.g., surface-water depletion by wells) without recourse to labor-intensive inset models. Implementation of an unstructured formulation within the MODFLOW framework (MODFLOW-USG) allows application of regional models to address local problems. A “semi-structured” approach (uniform lateral spacing within layers, different lateral spacing among layers) was tested using the LMB regional model. The parent 20-layer model with uniform 5000-foot (1524-m) lateral spacing was converted to 4 layers with 500-foot (152-m) spacing in the top glacial (Quaternary) layer, where surface water features are located, overlying coarser resolution layers representing deeper deposits. This semi-structured version of the LMB model reproduces regional flow conditions, whereas the finer resolution in the top layer improves the accuracy of the simulated response of surface water to shallow wells. One application of the semi-structured LMB model is to provide statistical measures of the correlation between modeled inputs and the simulated amount of water that wells derive from local surface water. The relations identified in this paper serve as the basis for metamodels to predict (with uncertainty) surface-water depletion in response to shallow pumping within and potentially beyond the modeled area, see Fienen et al. (2015a).

Development and application of process-based simulation models for cotton production: A review of past, present, and future directions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The development and application of cropping system simulation models for cotton production has a long and rich history, beginning in the southeast United States in the 1960's and now expanded to major cotton production regions globally. This paper briefly reviews the history of cotton simulation mo...

Can Regional Climate Modeling Capture the Observed Changes in Spatial Organization of Extreme Storms at Higher Temperatures?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Wasko, C.; Johnson, F.; Evans, J. P.; Sharma, A.

2018-05-01

The spatial extent and organization of extreme storm events has important practical implications for flood forecasting. Recently, conflicting evidence has been found on the observed changes of storm spatial extent with increasing temperatures. To further investigate this question, a regional climate model assessment is presented for the Greater Sydney region, in Australia. Two regional climate models were considered: the first a convection-resolving simulation at 2-km resolution, the second a resolution of 10 km with three different convection parameterizations. Both the 2- and the 10-km resolutions that used the Betts-Miller-Janjic convective scheme simulate decreasing storm spatial extent with increasing temperatures for 1-hr duration precipitation events, consistent with the observation-based study in Australia. However, other observed relationships of extreme rainfall with increasing temperature were not well represented by the models. Improved methods for considering storm organization are required to better understand potential future changes.

Simulated sensitivity of seasonal ozone exposure in the Great Lakes region to changes in anthropogenic emissions in the presence of interannual variability

Treesearch

Jerome D. Fast; Warren E. Heilman

2005-01-01

A coupled meteorological and chemical modeling system with a 12-km horizontal grid spacing was used to simulate the evolution of ozone over the Great Lakes region between May and September of 1999 and 2001. The overall temporal and spatial variations in hourly ozone concentrations and ozone exposure from control simulations agreed reasonably well with the observations...

Risk Assessment in Relation to the Effect of Climate Change on Water Shortage in the Taichung Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsiao, J.; Chang, L.; Ho, C.; Niu, M.

2010-12-01

Rapid economic development has stimulated a worldwide greenhouse effect and induced global climate change. Global climate change has increased the range of variation in the quantity of regional river flows between wet and dry seasons, which effects the management of regional water resources. Consequently, the influence of climate change has become an important issue in the management of regional water resources. In this study, the Monte Carlo simulation method was applied to risk analysis of shortage of water supply in the Taichung area. This study proposed a simulation model that integrated three models: weather generator model, surface runoff model, and water distribution model. The proposed model was used to evaluate the efficiency of the current water supply system and the potential effectiveness of two additional plans for water supply: the “artificial lakes” plan and the “cross-basin water transport” plan. A first-order Markov Chain method and two probability distribution models, exponential distribution and normal distribution, were used in the weather generator model. In the surface runoff model, researchers selected the Generalized Watershed Loading Function model (GWLF) to simulate the relationship between quantity of rainfall and basin outflow. A system dynamics model (SD) was applied to the water distribution model. Results of the simulation indicated that climate change could increase the annual quantity of river flow in the Dachia River and Daan River basins. However, climate change could also increase the difference in the quantity of river flow between wet and dry seasons. Simulation results showed that in current system case or in the additional plan cases, shortage status of water for both public and agricultural uses with conditions of climate change will be mostly worse than that without conditions of climate change except for the shortage status for the public use in the current system case. With or without considering the effect of climate change, the additional plans, especially the “cross-basin water transport” plan, for water supply could significantly increase the supply of water for public use. The proposed simulation model and results of analysis in this study could provide valuable reference for decision-makers in regards to risk analysis of regional water supply.

Future Simulated Intensification of Precipitation Extremes, CMIP5 Model Uncertainties and Dependencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bador, M.; Donat, M.; Geoffroy, O.; Alexander, L. V.

2017-12-01

Precipitation intensity during extreme events is expected to increase with climate change. Throughout the 21st century, CMIP5 climate models project a general increase in annual extreme precipitation in most regions. We investigate how robust this future increase is across different models, regions and seasons. We find that there is strong similarity in extreme precipitation changes between models that share atmospheric physics, reducing the ensemble of 27 models to 14 independent projections. We find that future simulated extreme precipitation increases in most models in the majority of land grid cells located in the dry, intermediate and wet regions according to each model's precipitation climatology. These increases significantly exceed the range of natural variability estimated from long equilibrium control runs. The intensification of extreme precipitation across the entire spectrum of dry to wet regions is particularly robust in the extra-tropics in both wet and dry season, whereas uncertainties are larger in the tropics. The CMIP5 ensemble therefore indicates robust future intensification of annual extreme rainfall in particular in extra-tropical regions. Generally, the CMIP5 robustness is higher during the dry season compared to the wet season and the annual scale, but inter-model uncertainties in the tropics remain important.

On the Frozen Soil Scheme for High Latitude Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganji, A.; Sushama, L.

2014-12-01

Regional and global climate model simulated streamflows for high-latitude regions show systematic biases, particularly in the timing and magnitude of spring peak flows. Though these biases could be related to the snow water equivalent and spring temperature biases in models, a good part of these biases is due to the unaccounted effects of non-uniform infiltration capacity of the frozen ground and other related processes. In this paper, the frozen scheme in the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS), which is used in the Canadian regional and global climate models, is modified to include fractional permeable area, supercooled liquid water and a new formulation for hydraulic conductivity. Interflow is also included in these experiments presented in this study to better explain the steamflows after snow melt season. The impact of these modifications on the regional hydrology, particularly streamflow, is assessed by comparing three simulations, performed with the original and two modified versions of CLASS, driven by atmospheric forcing data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data (ERA-Interim), for the 1990-2001 period, over a northeast Canadian domain. The two modified versions of CLASS differ in the soil hydraulic conductivity and matric potential formulations, with one version being based on formulations from a previous study and the other one is newly proposed. Results suggest statistically significant decreases in infiltration for the simulation with the new hydraulic conductivity and matric potential formulations and fractional permeable area concept, compared to the original version of CLASS, which is also reflected in the increased spring surface runoff and streamflows in this simulation with modified CLASS, over most of the study domain. The simulated spring peaks and their timing in this simulation is also in better agreement to those observed.

Impacts of Stratospheric Black Carbon on Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, L.; Robock, A.; Elliott, J. W.

2017-12-01

A regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan could inject 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere, which would absorb sunlight, decrease global surface temperature by about 1°C for 5-10 years and have major impacts on precipitation and the amount of solar radiation reaching Earth's surface. Using two global gridded crop models forced by one global climate model simulation, we investigate the impacts on agricultural productivity in various nations. The crop model in the Community Land Model 4.5 (CLM-crop4.5) and the parallel Decision Support System for Agricultural Technology (pDSSAT) in the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors are participating in the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison. We force these two crop models with output from the Whole Atmospheric Community Climate Model to characterize the global agricultural impact from climate changes due to a regional nuclear war. Crops in CLM-crop4.5 include maize, rice, soybean, cotton and sugarcane, and crops in pDSSAT include maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Although the two crop models require a different time frequency of weather input, we downscale the climate model output to provide consistent temperature, precipitation and solar radiation inputs. In general, CLM-crop4.5 simulates a larger global average reduction of maize and soybean production relative to pDSSAT. Global rice production shows negligible change with climate anomalies from a regional nuclear war. Cotton and sugarcane benefit from a regional nuclear war from CLM-crop4.5 simulation, and global wheat production would decrease significantly in the pDSSAT simulation. The regional crop yield responses to a regional nuclear conflict are different for each crop, and we present the changes in production on a national basis. These models do not include the crop responses to changes in ozone, ultraviolet radiation, or diffuse radiation, and we would like to encourage more modelers to improve crop models to account for those impacts. We present these results as a demonstration of using different crop models to study this problem, and we invite more global crop modeling groups to use the same climate forcing, which we would be happy to provide, to gain a better understanding of global agricultural responses under different future climate scenarios with stratospheric aerosols.

Demonstration of Anisotropic Fluid Closure Capturing the Kinetic Structure of Magnetic Reconnection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohia, Obioma

2012-10-01

Magnetic reconnection in collisionless plasmas plays an important role in space and laboratory plasmas. Allowing magnetic stress to be reduced by a rearrangement of magnetic line topology, this process is often accompanied by a large release of magnetic field energy, which can heat the plasma, drive large scale flows, or accelerate particles. Reconnection has been widely studied through fluid models and kinetic simulations. While two-fluid models often reproduce the fast reconnection that is observed in nature and seen in kinetic simulations, it is found that the structure surrounding the electron diffusion region and the electron current layer differ vastly between fluid models and kinetic simulations [1]. Recently, using an adiabatic solution of the Vlasov equation, a new fluid closure has been obtained for electrons that relate parallel and perpendicular pressures to the density and magnetic field [2]. Here we present the results of fluid simulation, developed using the HiFi framework [3], that implements new equations of state for guide-field reconnection. The new fluid closure accurately accounts for the anisotropic electron pressure that builds in the reconnection region due to electric and magnetic trapping of electrons. In contrast to previous fluid models, our fluid simulation reproduces the detailed reconnection region as observed in fully kinetic simulations [4]. We hereby demonstrate that the new fluid closure self-consistently captures all the physics relevant to the structure of the reconnection region, providing a gateway to a renewed and deeper theoretical understanding for reconnection in weakly collisional regimes.[4pt] [1] Daughton W et al., Phys. Plasmas 13, 072101 (2006).[0pt] [2] Le A et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 102, 085001 (2009). [0pt] [3] Lukin VS, Linton MG, Nonlinear Proc. Geoph. 18, 871 (2011). [0pt] [4] Ohia O, et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. In Press (2012).

Quantitative evaluation of simulated functional brain networks in graph theoretical analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Won Hee; Bullmore, Ed; Frangou, Sophia

2017-02-01

There is increasing interest in the potential of whole-brain computational models to provide mechanistic insights into resting-state brain networks. It is therefore important to determine the degree to which computational models reproduce the topological features of empirical functional brain networks. We used empirical connectivity data derived from diffusion spectrum and resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging data from healthy individuals. Empirical and simulated functional networks, constrained by structural connectivity, were defined based on 66 brain anatomical regions (nodes). Simulated functional data were generated using the Kuramoto model in which each anatomical region acts as a phase oscillator. Network topology was studied using graph theory in the empirical and simulated data. The difference (relative error) between graph theory measures derived from empirical and simulated data was then estimated. We found that simulated data can be used with confidence to model graph measures of global network organization at different dynamic states and highlight the sensitive dependence of the solutions obtained in simulated data on the specified connection densities. This study provides a method for the quantitative evaluation and external validation of graph theory metrics derived from simulated data that can be used to inform future study designs. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulating land-atmosphere feedbacks and response to widespread forest disturbance: The role of lower boundary configuration and dynamic water table in meteorological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forrester, M.; Maxwell, R. M.; Bearup, L. A.; Gochis, D.

2017-12-01

Numerical meteorological models are frequently used to diagnose land-atmosphere interactions and predict large-scale response to extreme or hazardous events, including widespread land disturbance or perturbations to near-surface moisture. However, few atmospheric modeling platforms consider the impact that dynamic groundwater storage, specifically 3D subsurface flow, has on land-atmosphere interactions. In this study, we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale meteorological model to identify ecohydrologic and land-atmosphere feedbacks to disturbance by the mountain pine beetle (MPB) over the Colorado Headwaters region. Disturbance simulations are applied to WRF with various lower boundary configurations: Including default Noah land surface model soil moisture representation; a version of WRF coupled to ParFlow (PF), an integrated groundwater-surface water model that resolves variably saturated flow in the subsurface; and WRF coupled to PF in a static water table version, simulating only vertical and no lateral subsurface flow. Our results agree with previous literature showing MPB-induced reductions in canopy transpiration in all lower boundary scenarios, as well as energy repartitioning, higher water tables, and higher planetary boundary layer over infested regions. Simulations show that expanding from local to watershed scale results in significant damping of MPB signal as unforested and unimpacted regions are added; and, while deforestation appears to have secondary feedbacks to planetary boundary layer and convection, these slight perturbations to cumulative summer precipitation are insignificant in the context of ensemble methodologies. Notably, the results suggest that groundwater representation in atmospheric modeling affects the response intensity of a land disturbance event. In the WRF-PF case, energy and atmospheric processes are more sensitive to disturbance in regions with higher water tables. Also, when dynamic subsurface hydrology is removed, WRF simulates a greater response to MPB at the land-atmosphere interface, including greater changes to daytime skin temperature, Bowen ratio and near-surface humidity. These findings highlight lower boundary representations in computational meteorology and numerical land-atmosphere modeling.

Simulating single word processing in the classic aphasia syndromes based on the Wernicke-Lichtheim-Geschwind theory.

PubMed

Weems, Scott A; Reggia, James A

2006-09-01

The Wernicke-Lichtheim-Geschwind (WLG) theory of the neurobiological basis of language is of great historical importance, and it continues to exert a substantial influence on most contemporary theories of language in spite of its widely recognized limitations. Here, we suggest that neurobiologically grounded computational models based on the WLG theory can provide a deeper understanding of which of its features are plausible and where the theory fails. As a first step in this direction, we created a model of the interconnected left and right neocortical areas that are most relevant to the WLG theory, and used it to study visual-confrontation naming, auditory repetition, and auditory comprehension performance. No specific functionality is assigned a priori to model cortical regions, other than that implicitly present due to their locations in the cortical network and a higher learning rate in left hemisphere regions. Following learning, the model successfully simulates confrontation naming and word repetition, and acquires a unique internal representation in parietal regions for each named object. Simulated lesions to the language-dominant cortical regions produce patterns of single word processing impairment reminiscent of those postulated historically in the classic aphasia syndromes. These results indicate that WLG theory, instantiated as a simple interconnected network of model neocortical regions familiar to any neuropsychologist/neurologist, captures several fundamental "low-level" aspects of neurobiological word processing and their impairment in aphasia.

Application of ARC/INFO to regional scale hydrogeologic modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wurstner, S.K.; McWethy, G.; Devary, J.L.

1993-05-01

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can be a useful tool in data preparation for groundwater flow modeling, especially when studying large regional systems. ARC/INFO is being used in conjunction with GRASS to support data preparation for input to the CFEST (Coupled Fluid, Energy, and Solute Transport) groundwater modeling code. Simulations will be performed with CFEST to model three-dimensional, regional, groundwater flow in the West Siberian Basin.

Comparison of Actual Surgical Outcomes and 3D Surgical Simulations

PubMed Central

Tucker, Scott; Cevidanes, Lucia; Styner, Martin; Kim, Hyungmin; Reyes, Mauricio; Proffit, William; Turvey, Timothy

2009-01-01

Purpose The advent of imaging software programs have proved to be useful for diagnosis, treatment planning, and outcome measurement, but precision of 3D surgical simulation still needs to be tested. This study was conducted to determine if the virtual surgery performed on 3D models constructed from Cone-beam CT (CBCT) can correctly simulate the actual surgical outcome and to validate the ability of this emerging technology to recreate the orthognathic surgery hard tissue movements in 3 translational and 3 rotational planes of space. Methods Construction of pre- and post-surgery 3D models from CBCTs of 14 patients who had combined maxillary advancement and mandibular setback surgery and 6 patients who had one-piece maxillary advancement surgery was performed. The post-surgery and virtually simulated surgery 3D models were registered at the cranial base to quantify differences between simulated and actual surgery models. Hotelling T-test were used to assess the differences between simulated and actual surgical outcomes. Results For all anatomic regions of interest, there was no statistically significant difference between the simulated and the actual surgical models. The right lateral ramus was the only region that showed a statistically significant, but small difference when comparing two- and one-jaw surgeries. Conclusions Virtual surgical methods were reliably reproduced, oral surgery residents could benefit from virtual surgical training, and computer simulation has the potential to increase predictability in the operating room. PMID:20591553

A Review on Regional Convection-Permitting Climate Modeling: Demonstrations, Prospects, and Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prein, A. F.; Langhans, W.; Fosser, G.; Ferrone, A.; Ban, N.; Goergen, K.; Keller, M.; Tölle, M.; Gutjahr, O.; Feser, F.; Brisson, E.; Kollet, S. J.; Schmidli, J.; Van Lipzig, N. P. M.; Leung, L. R.

2015-12-01

Regional climate modeling using convection-permitting models (CPMs; horizontal grid spacing <4 km) emerges as a promising framework to provide more reliable climate information on regional to local scales compared to traditionally used large-scale models (LSMs; horizontal grid spacing >10 km). CPMs no longer rely on convection parameterization schemes, which had been identified as a major source of errors and uncertainties in LSMs. Moreover, CPMs allow for a more accurate representation of surface and orography fields. The drawback of CPMs is the high demand on computational resources. For this reason, first CPM climate simulations only appeared a decade ago. We aim to provide a common basis for CPM climate simulations by giving a holistic review of the topic. The most important components in CPMs such as physical parameterizations and dynamical formulations are discussed critically. An overview of weaknesses and an outlook on required future developments is provided. Most importantly, this review presents the consolidated outcome of studies that addressed the added value of CPM climate simulations compared to LSMs. Improvements are evident mostly for climate statistics related to deep convection, mountainous regions, or extreme events. The climate change signals of CPM simulations suggest an increase in flash floods, changes in hail storm characteristics, and reductions in the snowpack over mountains. In conclusion, CPMs are a very promising tool for future climate research. However, coordinated modeling programs are crucially needed to advance parameterizations of unresolved physics and to assess the full potential of CPMs.

A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges.

PubMed

Prein, Andreas F; Langhans, Wolfgang; Fosser, Giorgia; Ferrone, Andrew; Ban, Nikolina; Goergen, Klaus; Keller, Michael; Tölle, Merja; Gutjahr, Oliver; Feser, Frauke; Brisson, Erwan; Kollet, Stefan; Schmidli, Juerg; van Lipzig, Nicole P M; Leung, Ruby

2015-06-01

Regional climate modeling using convection-permitting models (CPMs; horizontal grid spacing <4 km) emerges as a promising framework to provide more reliable climate information on regional to local scales compared to traditionally used large-scale models (LSMs; horizontal grid spacing >10 km). CPMs no longer rely on convection parameterization schemes, which had been identified as a major source of errors and uncertainties in LSMs. Moreover, CPMs allow for a more accurate representation of surface and orography fields. The drawback of CPMs is the high demand on computational resources. For this reason, first CPM climate simulations only appeared a decade ago. In this study, we aim to provide a common basis for CPM climate simulations by giving a holistic review of the topic. The most important components in CPMs such as physical parameterizations and dynamical formulations are discussed critically. An overview of weaknesses and an outlook on required future developments is provided. Most importantly, this review presents the consolidated outcome of studies that addressed the added value of CPM climate simulations compared to LSMs. Improvements are evident mostly for climate statistics related to deep convection, mountainous regions, or extreme events. The climate change signals of CPM simulations suggest an increase in flash floods, changes in hail storm characteristics, and reductions in the snowpack over mountains. In conclusion, CPMs are a very promising tool for future climate research. However, coordinated modeling programs are crucially needed to advance parameterizations of unresolved physics and to assess the full potential of CPMs.

Improving the representation of clouds, radiation, and precipitation using spectral nudging in the Weather Research and Forecasting model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spero, Tanya L.; Otte, Martin J.; Bowden, Jared H.; Nolte, Christopher G.

2014-10-01

Spectral nudging—a scale-selective interior constraint technique—is commonly used in regional climate models to maintain consistency with large-scale forcing while permitting mesoscale features to develop in the downscaled simulations. Several studies have demonstrated that spectral nudging improves the representation of regional climate in reanalysis-forced simulations compared with not using nudging in the interior of the domain. However, in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, spectral nudging tends to produce degraded precipitation simulations when compared to analysis nudging—an interior constraint technique that is scale indiscriminate but also operates on moisture fields which until now could not be altered directly by spectral nudging. Since analysis nudging is less desirable for regional climate modeling because it dampens fine-scale variability, changes are proposed to the spectral nudging methodology to capitalize on differences between the nudging techniques and aim to improve the representation of clouds, radiation, and precipitation without compromising other fields. These changes include adding spectral nudging toward moisture, limiting nudging to below the tropopause, and increasing the nudging time scale for potential temperature, all of which collectively improve the representation of mean and extreme precipitation, 2 m temperature, clouds, and radiation, as demonstrated using a model-simulated 20 year historical period. Such improvements to WRF may increase the fidelity of regional climate data used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on human health and the environment and aid in climate change mitigation and adaptation studies.

A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prein, Andreas F.; Langhans, Wolfgang; Fosser, Giorgia; Ferrone, Andrew; Ban, Nikolina; Goergen, Klaus; Keller, Michael; Tölle, Merja; Gutjahr, Oliver; Feser, Frauke; Brisson, Erwan; Kollet, Stefan; Schmidli, Juerg; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Leung, Ruby

2015-06-01

Regional climate modeling using convection-permitting models (CPMs; horizontal grid spacing <4 km) emerges as a promising framework to provide more reliable climate information on regional to local scales compared to traditionally used large-scale models (LSMs; horizontal grid spacing >10 km). CPMs no longer rely on convection parameterization schemes, which had been identified as a major source of errors and uncertainties in LSMs. Moreover, CPMs allow for a more accurate representation of surface and orography fields. The drawback of CPMs is the high demand on computational resources. For this reason, first CPM climate simulations only appeared a decade ago. In this study, we aim to provide a common basis for CPM climate simulations by giving a holistic review of the topic. The most important components in CPMs such as physical parameterizations and dynamical formulations are discussed critically. An overview of weaknesses and an outlook on required future developments is provided. Most importantly, this review presents the consolidated outcome of studies that addressed the added value of CPM climate simulations compared to LSMs. Improvements are evident mostly for climate statistics related to deep convection, mountainous regions, or extreme events. The climate change signals of CPM simulations suggest an increase in flash floods, changes in hail storm characteristics, and reductions in the snowpack over mountains. In conclusion, CPMs are a very promising tool for future climate research. However, coordinated modeling programs are crucially needed to advance parameterizations of unresolved physics and to assess the full potential of CPMs.

A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges

DOE PAGES

Prein, Andreas; Langhans, Wolfgang; Fosser, Giorgia; ...

2015-05-27

Regional climate modeling using convection permitting models (CPMs) emerges as a promising framework to provide more reliable climate information on regional to local scales compared to traditionally used large-scale models (LSMs). CPMs do not use convection parameterization schemes, known as a major source of errors and uncertainties, and have more accurate surface and orography elds. The drawback of CPMs is their high demand on computational resources. For this reason, the CPM climate simulations only appeared a decade ago. In this study we aim to provide a common basis for CPM climate simulations by giving a holistic review of the topic.more » The most important components in CPM, such as physical parameterizations and dynamical formulations are discussed, and an outlook on required future developments and computer architectures that would support the application of CPMs is given. Most importantly, this review presents the consolidated outcome of studies that addressed the added value of CPM climate simulations compared to LSMs. Most improvements are found for processes related to deep convection (e.g., precipitation during summer), for mountainous regions, and for the soil-vegetation-atmosphere interactions. The climate change signals of CPM simulations reveal increases in short and extreme rainfall events and an increased ratio of liquid precipitation at the surface (a decrease of hail) potentially leading to more frequent ash oods. Concluding, CPMs are a very promising tool for future climate research. However, coordinated modeling programs are crucially needed to assess their full potential and support their development.« less

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crane, Robert G.; Hewitson, Bruce

1990-01-01

Model simulations of global climate change are seen as an essential component of any program aimed at understanding human impact on the global environment. A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs), however, is their inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global scale change, and it is these regional scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human/environmental response. This research is directed toward the development of a methodology for the validation of the synoptic scale climatology of GCMs. This is developed with regard to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM Model 2, with the specific objective of using the synoptic circulation form a doubles CO2 simulation to estimate regional climate change over North America, south of Hudson Bay. This progress report is specifically concerned with validating the synoptic climatology of the GISS GCM, and developing the transfer function to derive grid-point temperatures from the synoptic circulation. Principal Components Analysis is used to characterize the primary modes of the spatial and temporal variability in the observed and simulated climate, and the model validation is based on correlations between component loadings, and power spectral analysis of the component scores. The results show that the high resolution GISS model does an excellent job of simulating the synoptic circulation over the U.S., and that grid-point temperatures can be predicted with reasonable accuracy from the circulation patterns.

A neurosurgical simulation of skull base tumors using a 3D printed rapid prototyping model containing mesh structures.

PubMed

Kondo, Kosuke; Harada, Naoyuki; Masuda, Hiroyuki; Sugo, Nobuo; Terazono, Sayaka; Okonogi, Shinichi; Sakaeyama, Yuki; Fuchinoue, Yutaka; Ando, Syunpei; Fukushima, Daisuke; Nomoto, Jun; Nemoto, Masaaki

2016-06-01

Deep regions are not visible in three-dimensional (3D) printed rapid prototyping (RP) models prepared from opaque materials, which is not the case with translucent images. The objectives of this study were to develop an RP model in which a skull base tumor was simulated using mesh, and to investigate its usefulness for surgical simulations by evaluating the visibility of its deep regions. A 3D printer that employs binder jetting and is mainly used to prepare plaster models was used. RP models containing a solid tumor, no tumor, and a mesh tumor were prepared based on computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, and angiographic data for four cases of petroclival tumor. Twelve neurosurgeons graded the three types of RP model into the following four categories: 'clearly visible,' 'visible,' 'difficult to see,' and 'invisible,' based on the visibility of the internal carotid artery, basilar artery, and brain stem through a craniotomy performed via the combined transpetrosal approach. In addition, the 3D positional relationships between these structures and the tumor were assessed. The internal carotid artery, basilar artery, and brain stem and the positional relationships of these structures with the tumor were significantly more visible in the RP models with mesh tumors than in the RP models with solid or no tumors. The deep regions of PR models containing mesh skull base tumors were easy to visualize. This 3D printing-based method might be applicable to various surgical simulations.

Tropospheric ozone simulated by a global-multi-regional two-way coupling model system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Y.; Lin, J.; Chen, J.; Hu, L.

2015-12-01

Current global chemical transport models are limited by horizontal resolutions (100-500 km), and they cannot capture small-scale processes affecting tropospheric ozone (O3). Here we use a recently built two-way coupling system of GEOS-Chem to simulate the global tropospheric O3 in 2009. The system couples the global model (~ 200 km) and its three nested models (~ 50 km) covering Asia, North America and Europe, respectively. Benefiting from the high resolution, the nested models better capture small-scale processes than the global model alone. In the coupling system, the nested models provide results to modify the global model simulation within respective nested domains while taking the lateral boundary conditions from the global model. Due to the "coupling" effects, the two-way system significantly improves the tropospheric O3 simulation upon the global model alone, as found by comparisons with a suite of ground (1420 sites from WDCGG, GMD, EMEP, and AQS), aircraft (HIPPO and MOZAIC), and satellite measurements (two OMI products). Compared to the global model alone, the two-way coupled simulation enhances the correlation in day-to-day variation of afternoon mean O3 with the ground measurements from 0.53 to 0.68 and reduces the mean model bias from 10.8 to 6.7 ppb. Regionally, the coupled model reduces the bias by 4.6 ppb over Europe, 3.9 ppb over North America, and 3.1 ppb over other regions. The two-way coupling brings O3 vertical profiles much closer to the HIPPO and MOZAIC data, reducing the tropospheric (0-9 km) mean bias by 3-10 ppb at most MOZAIC sites and by 5.3 ppb for HIPPO profiles. The two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric column ozone by 3.0 DU (9.5%), bringing them closer to the OMI data in all seasons. Simulation improvements are more significant in the northern hemisphere, and are primarily a result of improved representation of the nonlinear ozone chemistry, including but not limited to urban-rural contrast. The two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric mean hydroxyl radical by 5% with enhancements by 5% in lifetimes of methyl chloroform and methane, bringing them closer to observation-based estimates. Therefore improving model representations of small-scale processes are a critical step forward to understanding the global tropospheric chemistry.

Computational Approach for Improving Three-Dimensional Sub-Surface Earth Structure for Regional Earthquake Hazard Simulations in the San Francisco Bay Area

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rodgers, A. J.

In our Exascale Computing Project (ECP) we seek to simulate earthquake ground motions at much higher frequency than is currently possible. Previous simulations in the SFBA were limited to 0.5-1 Hz or lower (Aagaard et al. 2008, 2010), while we have recently simulated the response to 5 Hz. In order to improve confidence in simulated ground motions, we must accurately represent the three-dimensional (3D) sub-surface material properties that govern seismic wave propagation over a broad region. We are currently focusing on the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) with a Cartesian domain of size 120 x 80 x 35 km, butmore » this area will be expanded to cover a larger domain. Currently, the United States Geologic Survey (USGS) has a 3D model of the SFBA for seismic simulations. However, this model suffers from two serious shortcomings relative to our application: 1) it does not fit most of the available low frequency (< 1 Hz) seismic waveforms from moderate (magnitude M 3.5-5.0) earthquakes; and 2) it is represented with much lower resolution than necessary for the high frequency simulations (> 5 Hz) we seek to perform. The current model will serve as a starting model for full waveform tomography based on 3D sensitivity kernels. This report serves as the deliverable for our ECP FY2017 Quarter 4 milestone to FY 2018 “Computational approach to developing model updates”. We summarize the current state of 3D seismic simulations in the SFBA and demonstrate the performance of the USGS 3D model for a few selected paths. We show the available open-source waveform data sets for model updates, based on moderate earthquakes recorded in the region. We present a plan for improving the 3D model utilizing the available data and further development of our SW4 application. We project how the model could be improved and present options for further improvements focused on the shallow geotechnical layers using dense passive recordings of ambient and human-induced noise.« less

Two applications of the Recently Developed UZF-MT3DMS Model for Evaluating Nonpoint-Source Fluxes (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morway, E. D.; Niswonger, R. G.; Nishikawa, T.

2013-12-01

The solute-transport model MT3DMS was modified to simulate transport in the unsaturated-zone by incorporating the additional flow terms calculated by the Unsaturated-Zone Flow (UZF) package developed for MODFLOW. Referred to as UZF-MT3DMS, the model simulates advection and dispersion of conservative and reactive solutes in unsaturated and saturated porous media. Significant time savings are realized owing to the efficiency of the kinematic -wave approximation used by the UZF1 package relative to Richards' equation-based approaches, facilitating the use of automated parameter-estimation routines wherein thousands of model runs may be required. Currently, UZF-MT3DMS is applied to two real-world applications of existing MODFLOW and MT3DMS models retro-fitted to use the UZF1 package for simulating the unsaturated component of the sub-surface system. In the first application, two regional-scale investigations located in Colorado's Lower Arkansas River Valley (LARV) are developed to evaluate the extent and severity of unsaturated-zone salinization contributing to crop yield loss. Preliminary results indicate root zone concentrations over both regions are at or above salinity-thresholds of most crop types grown in the LARV. Regional-scale modeling investigations of salinization found in the literature commonly use lumped-parameter models rather than physically-based distributed-parameter models. In the second application, located near Joshua Tree, CA, nitrate loading to the underlying unconfined aquifer from domestic septic systems is evaluated. Due to the region's thick unsaturated-zone and correspondingly long unsaturated-zone residence times (multi-decade), UZF-MT3DMS enabled direct simulation of spatially-varying concentration break-through curves at the water table.

Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greve, Peter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2018-03-01

Changes in regional water availability belong to the most crucial potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are highly uncertain. It is thus of key importance for stakeholders to assess the possible implications of different global temperature thresholds on these quantities. Using a subset of climate model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we derive here the sensitivity of regional changes in precipitation and in precipitation minus evapotranspiration to global temperature changes. The simulations span the full range of available emission scenarios, and the sensitivities are derived using a modified pattern scaling approach. The applied approach assumes linear relationships on global temperature changes while thoroughly addressing associated uncertainties via resampling methods. This allows us to assess the full distribution of the simulations in a probabilistic sense. Northern high-latitude regions display robust responses towards wetting, while subtropical regions display a tendency towards drying but with a large range of responses. Even though both internal variability and the scenario choice play an important role in the overall spread of the simulations, the uncertainty stemming from the climate model choice usually accounts for about half of the total uncertainty in most regions. We additionally assess the implications of limiting global mean temperature warming to values below (i) 2 K or (ii) 1.5 K (as stated within the 2015 Paris Agreement). We show that opting for the 1.5 K target might just slightly influence the mean response, but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes in regional water availability.

Isotopic source signatures: Impact of regional variability on the δ13CH4 trend and spatial distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feinberg, Aryeh I.; Coulon, Ancelin; Stenke, Andrea; Schwietzke, Stefan; Peter, Thomas

2018-02-01

The atmospheric methane growth rate has fluctuated over the past three decades, signifying variations in methane sources and sinks. Methane isotopic ratios (δ13CH4) differ between emission categories, and can therefore be used to distinguish which methane sources have changed. However, isotopic modelling studies have mainly focused on uncertainties in methane emissions rather than uncertainties in isotopic source signatures. We simulated atmospheric δ13CH4 for the period 1990-2010 using the global chemistry-climate model SOCOL. Empirically-derived regional variability in the isotopic signatures was introduced in a suite of sensitivity simulations. These simulations were compared to a baseline simulation with commonly used global mean isotopic signatures. We investigated coal, natural gas/oil, wetland, livestock, and biomass burning source signatures to determine whether regional variations impact the observed isotopic trend and spatial distribution. Based on recently published source signature datasets, our calculated global mean isotopic signatures are in general lighter than the commonly used values. Trends in several isotopic signatures were also apparent during the period 1990-2010. Tropical livestock emissions grew during the 2000s, introducing isotopically heavier livestock emissions since tropical livestock consume more C4 vegetation than midlatitude livestock. Chinese coal emissions, which are isotopically heavy compared to other coals, increase during the 2000s leading to higher global values of δ13CH4 for coal emissions. EDGAR v4.2 emissions disagree with the observed atmospheric isotopic trend for almost all simulations, confirming past doubts about this emissions inventory. The agreement between the modelled and observed δ13CH4 interhemispheric differences improves when regional source signatures are used. Even though the simulated results are highly dependent on the choice of methane emission inventories, they emphasize that the commonly used global mean signatures are inadequate. Regional isotopic signatures should be employed in modelling studies that try to constrain methane emission inventories.

Importance of a Global Approach to Using Regional Models in the Assessment of Source-Receptor Relationships of Mercury

EPA Science Inventory

Regional atmospheric models simulate their pertinent processes over a limited portion of the global atmosphere. This portion of the atmosphere can be a large fraction, as in the case of continental-scale modeling, or small fraction, as in the case of urban-scale modeling. Regio...

Anatomical education and surgical simulation based on the Chinese Visible Human: a three-dimensional virtual model of the larynx region.

PubMed

Liu, Kaijun; Fang, Binji; Wu, Yi; Li, Ying; Jin, Jun; Tan, Liwen; Zhang, Shaoxiang

2013-09-01

Anatomical knowledge of the larynx region is critical for understanding laryngeal disease and performing required interventions. Virtual reality is a useful method for surgical education and simulation. Here, we assembled segmented cross-section slices of the larynx region from the Chinese Visible Human dataset. The laryngeal structures were precisely segmented manually as 2D images, then reconstructed and displayed as 3D images in the virtual reality Dextrobeam system. Using visualization and interaction with the virtual reality modeling language model, a digital laryngeal anatomy instruction was constructed using HTML and JavaScript languages. The volume larynx models can thus display an arbitrary section of the model and provide a virtual dissection function. This networked teaching system of the digital laryngeal anatomy can be read remotely, displayed locally, and manipulated interactively.

Energy balance-based distributed modeling of snow and glacier melt runoff for the Hunza river basin in the Pakistan Karakoram Himalayan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, M.; Wang, L.; Koike, T.; Xue, Y.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Ahmad, S.

2012-12-01

A spatially distributed biosphere hydrological model with energy balance-based multilayer snow physics and multilayer glacier model, including debris free and debris covered surface (enhanced WEB-DHM-S) has been developed and applied to the Hunza river basin in the Pakistan Karakoram Himalayan region, where about 34% of the basin area is covered by glaciers. The spatial distribution of seasonal snow and glacier cover, snow and glacier melt runoff along with rainfall-contributed runoff, and glacier mass balances are simulated. The simulations are carried out at hourly time steps and at 1-km spatial resolution for the two hydrological years (2002-2003) with the use of APHRODITE precipitation dataset, observed temperature, and other atmospheric forcing variables from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). The pixel-to-pixel comparisons for the snow-free and snow-covered grids over the region reveal that the simulation agrees well with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) eight-day maximum snow-cover extent data (MOD10A2) with an accuracy of 83% and a positive bias of 2.8 %. The quantitative evaluation also shows that the model is able to reproduce the river discharge satisfactorily with Nash efficiency of 0.92. It is found that the contribution of rainfall to total streamflow is small (about 10-12%) while the contribution of snow and glacier is considerably large (35-40% for snowmelt and 50-53% for glaciermelt, respectively). The model simulates the state of snow and glaciers at each model grid prognostically and thus can estimate the net annual mass balance. The net mass balance varies from -2 m to +2 m water equivalent. Additionally, the hypsography analysis for the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) suggests that the average ELA in this region is about 5700 m with substantial variation from glacier to glacier and region to region. This study is the first to adopt a distributed biosphere hydrological model with the energy balance- based multilayer snow and glacier module to estimate the spatial distribution of snow/glacier cover and snow and glacier melt runoff for a river basin in the Karakoram Himalayan region.

Top-down constraints of regional emissions for KORUS-AQ 2016 field campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bae, M.; Yoo, C.; Kim, H. C.; Kim, B. U.; Kim, S.

2017-12-01

Accurate estimations of emission rates form local and international sources are essential in regional air quality simulations, especially in assessing the relative contributions from international emission sources. While bottom-up constructions of emission inventories provide detailed information on specific emission types, they are limited to cover regions with rapid change of anthropogenic emissions (e.g. China) or regions without enough socioeconomic information (e.g. North Korea). We utilized space-borne monitoring of major pollutant precursors to construct a realistic emission inputs for chemistry transport models during the KORUS-AQ 2016 field campaign. Base simulation was conducted using WRF, SMOKE, and CMAQ modeling frame using CREATE 2015 (Asian countries) and CAPSS 2013 (South Korea) emissions inventories. NOx, SO2 and VOC model emissions are adjusted using the column density comparisons ratios (between modeled and observed NO2, SO2 and HCHO column densities) and emission-to-density conversion ratio (from model). Brute force perturbation method was used to separate contributions from North Korea, China and South Korea for flight pathways during the field campaign. Backward-Tracking Model Analyzer (BMA), based on NOAA HYSPLIT trajectory and dispersion model, are also utilized to track histories of chemical processes and emission source apportionment. CMAQ simulations were conducted over East Asia (27-km) and over South and North Korea (9-km) during KORUS-AQ campaign (1st May to 10th June 2016).

Relating a Jet-Surface Interaction Experiment to a Commercial Supersonic Transport Aircraft Using Numerical Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dippold, Vance F. III; Friedlander, David

2017-01-01

Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations were performed for a commercial supersonic transport aircraft concept and experimental hardware models designed to represent the installed propulsion system of the conceptual aircraft in an upcoming test campaign. The purpose of the experiment is to determine the effects of jet-surface interactions from supersonic aircraft on airport community noise. RANS simulations of the commercial supersonic transport aircraft concept were performed to relate the representative experimental hardware to the actual aircraft. RANS screening simulations were performed on the proposed test hardware to verify that it would be free from potential rig noise and to predict the aerodynamic forces on the model hardware to assist with structural design. The simulations showed a large region of separated flow formed in a junction region of one of the experimental configurations. This was dissimilar with simulations of the aircraft and could invalidate the noise measurements. This configuration was modified and a subsequent RANS simulation showed that the size of the flow separation was greatly reduced. The aerodynamic forces found on the experimental models were found to be relatively small when compared to the expected loads from the model’s own weight.Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations were completed for two configurations of a three-stream inverted velocity profile (IVP) nozzle and a baseline single-stream round nozzle (mixed-flow equivalent conditions). For the Sideline and Cutback flow conditions, while the IVP nozzles did not reduce the peak turbulent kinetic energy on the lower side of the jet plume, the IVP nozzles did significantly reduce the size of the region of peak turbulent kinetic energy when compared to the jet plume of the baseline nozzle cases. The IVP nozzle at Sideline conditions did suffer a region of separated flow from the inner stream nozzle splitter that did produce an intense, but small, region of turbulent kinetic energy in the vicinity of the nozzle exit. When viewed with the understanding that jet noise is directly related to turbulent kinetic energy, these IVP nozzle simulations show the potential to reduce noise to observers located below the nozzle. However, these RANS simulations also show that some modifications may be needed to prevent the small region of separated flow-induced turbulent kinetic energy from the inner stream nozzle splitter at Sideline conditions.

Characterization of extreme sea level at the European coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elizalde, Alberto; Jorda, Gabriel; Mathis, Moritz; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

2015-04-01

Extreme high sea levels arise as a combination of storm surges and particular high tides events. Future climate simulations not only project changes in the atmospheric circulation, which induces changes in the wind conditions, but also an increase in the global mean sea level by thermal expansion and ice melting. Such changes increase the risk of coastal flooding, which represents a possible hazard for human activities. Therefore, it is important to investigate the pattern of sea level variability and long-term trends at coastal areas. In order to analyze further extreme sea level events at the European coast in the future climate projections, a new setup for the global ocean model MPIOM coupled with the regional atmosphere model REMO is prepared. The MPIOM irregular grid has enhanced resolution in the European region to resolve the North and the Mediterranean Seas (up to 11 x 11 km at the North Sea). The ocean model includes as well the full luni-solar ephemeridic tidal potential for tides simulation. To simulate the air-sea interaction, the regional atmospheric model REMO is interactively coupled to the ocean model over Europe. Such region corresponds to the EuroCORDEX domain with a 50 x 50 km resolution. Besides the standard fluxes of heat, mass (freshwater), momentum and turbulent energy input, the ocean model is also forced with sea level pressure, in order to be able to capture the full variation of sea level. The hydrological budget within the study domain is closed using a hydrological discharge model. With this model, simulations for present climate and future climate scenarios are carried out to study transient changes on the sea level and extreme events. As a first step, two simulations (coupled and uncoupled ocean) driven by reanalysis data (ERA40) have been conducted. They are used as reference runs to evaluate the climate projection simulations. For selected locations at the coast side, time series of sea level are separated on its different components: tides, short time atmospheric process influence (1-30 days), seasonal cycle and interannual variability. Every sea level component is statistically compared with data from local tide gauges.

Simulation of C. elegans thermotactic behavior in a linear thermal gradient using a simple phenomenological motility model.

PubMed

Matsuoka, Tomohiro; Gomi, Sohei; Shingai, Ryuzo

2008-01-21

The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans has been reported to exhibit thermotaxis, a sophisticated behavioral response to temperature. However, there appears to be some inconsistency among previous reports. The results of population-level thermotaxis investigations suggest that C. elegans can navigate to the region of its cultivation temperature from nearby regions of higher or lower temperature. However, individual C. elegans nematodes appear to show only cryophilic tendencies above their cultivation temperature. A Monte-Carlo style simulation using a simple individual model of C. elegans provides insight into clarifying apparent inconsistencies among previous findings. The simulation using the thermotaxis model that includes the cryophilic tendencies, isothermal tracking and thermal adaptation was conducted. As a result of the random walk property of locomotion of C. elegans, only cryophilic tendencies above the cultivation temperature result in population-level thermophilic tendencies. Isothermal tracking, a period of active pursuit of an isotherm around regions of temperature near prior cultivation temperature, can strengthen the tendencies of these worms to gather around near-cultivation-temperature regions. A statistical index, the thermotaxis (TTX) L-skewness, was introduced and was useful in analyzing the population-level thermotaxis of model worms.

Exploration of factors affecting the onset and maturation course of follicular lymphoma through simulations of the germinal center.

PubMed

Fenwick, Michael K; Escobedo, Fernando A

2009-08-01

Genetic mutations frequently observed in human follicular lymphoma (FL) B-cells result in aberrant expression of the anti-apoptotic protein bcl-2 and surface immunoglobulins (Igs) which display one or more novel variable (V) region N-glycosylation motifs. In the present study, we develop a simulation model of the germinal center (GC) to explore how these mutations might influence the emergence and clonal expansion of key mutants which provoke FL development. The simulations employ a stochastic method for calculating the cellular dynamics, which incorporates actual IgV region sequences and a simplified hypermutation scheme. We first bring our simulations into agreement with experimental data for well-characterized normal and bcl-2(+) anti-hapten GC responses in mice to provide a model for understanding how bcl-2 expression leads to permissive selection and memory cell differentiation of weakly competitive B-cells. However, as bcl-2 expression in the GC alone is thought to be insufficient for FL development, we next monitor simulated IgV region mutations to determine the emergence times of key mutants displaying aberrant N-glycosylation motifs recurrently observed in human FL IgV regions. Simulations of 26 germline V(H) gene segments indicate that particular IgV regions have a dynamical selective advantage by virtue of the speed with which one or more of their key sites can generate N-glycosylation motifs upon hypermutation. Separate calculations attribute the high occurrence frequency of such IgV regions in FL to an ability to produce key mutants at a fast enough rate to overcome stochastic processes in the GC that hinder clonal expansion. Altogether, these simulations characterize three pathways for FL maturation through positively selected N-glycosylations, namely, via one of two key sites within germline V(H) region gene segments, or via a site in the third heavy chain complementarity-determining region (CDR-H3) that is generated from VDJ recombination.

Simulation of net infiltration and potential recharge using a distributed-parameter watershed model of the Death Valley region, Nevada and California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hevesi, Joseph A.; Flint, Alan L.; Flint, Lorraine E.

2003-01-01

This report presents the development and application of the distributed-parameter watershed model, INFILv3, for estimating the temporal and spatial distribution of net infiltration and potential recharge in the Death Valley region, Nevada and California. The estimates of net infiltration quantify the downward drainage of water across the lower boundary of the root zone and are used to indicate potential recharge under variable climate conditions and drainage basin characteristics. Spatial variability in recharge in the Death Valley region likely is high owing to large differences in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, bedrock permeability, soil thickness, vegetation characteristics, and contributions to recharge along active stream channels. The quantity and spatial distribution of recharge representing the effects of variable climatic conditions and drainage basin characteristics on recharge are needed to reduce uncertainty in modeling ground-water flow. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Department of Energy, developed a regional saturated-zone ground-water flow model of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system to help evaluate the current hydrogeologic system and the potential effects of natural or human-induced changes. Although previous estimates of recharge have been made for most areas of the Death Valley region, including the area defined by the boundary of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, the uncertainty of these estimates is high, and the spatial and temporal variability of the recharge in these basins has not been quantified. To estimate the magnitude and distribution of potential recharge in response to variable climate and spatially varying drainage basin characteristics, the INFILv3 model uses a daily water-balance model of the root zone with a primarily deterministic representation of the processes controlling net infiltration and potential recharge. The daily water balance includes precipitation (as either rain or snow), snow accumulation, sublimation, snowmelt, infiltration into the root zone, evapotranspiration, drainage, water content change throughout the root-zone profile (represented as a 6-layered system), runoff (defined as excess rainfall and snowmelt) and surface water run-on (defined as runoff that is routed downstream), and net infiltration (simulated as drainage from the bottom root-zone layer). Potential evapotranspiration is simulated using an hourly solar radiation model to simulate daily net radiation, and daily evapotranspiration is simulated as an empirical function of root zone water content and potential evapotranspiration. The model uses daily climate records of precipitation and air temperature from a regionally distributed network of 132 climate stations and a spatially distributed representation of drainage basin characteristics defined by topography, geology, soils, and vegetation to simulate daily net infiltration at all locations, including stream channels with intermittent streamflow in response to runoff from rain and snowmelt. The temporal distribution of daily, monthly, and annual net infiltration can be used to evaluate the potential effect of future climatic conditions on potential recharge. The INFILv3 model inputs representing drainage basin characteristics were developed using a geographic information system (GIS) to define a set of spatially distributed input parameters uniquely assigned to each grid cell of the INFILv3 model grid. The model grid, which was defined by a digital elevation model (DEM) of the Death Valley region, consists of 1,252,418 model grid cells with a uniform grid cell dimension of 278.5 meters in the north-south and east-west directions. The elevation values from the DEM were used with monthly regression models developed from the daily climate data to estimate the spatial distribution of daily precipitation and air temperature. The elevation values were also used to simulate atmosp

Impacts of climate change on paddy rice yield in a temperate climate.

PubMed

Kim, Han-Yong; Ko, Jonghan; Kang, Suchel; Tenhunen, John

2013-02-01

The crop simulation model is a suitable tool for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on crop production and on the environment. This study investigates the effects of climate change on paddy rice production in the temperate climate regions under the East Asian monsoon system using the CERES-Rice 4.0 crop simulation model. This model was first calibrated and validated for crop production under elevated CO2 and various temperature conditions. Data were obtained from experiments performed using a temperature gradient field chamber (TGFC) with a CO2 enrichment system installed at Chonnam National University in Gwangju, Korea in 2009 and 2010. Based on the empirical calibration and validation, the model was applied to deliver a simulated forecast of paddy rice production for the region, as well as for the other Japonica rice growing regions in East Asia, projecting for years 2050 and 2100. In these climate change projection simulations in Gwangju, Korea, the yield increases (+12.6 and + 22.0%) due to CO2 elevation were adjusted according to temperature increases showing variation dependent upon the cultivars, which resulted in significant yield decreases (-22.1% and -35.0%). The projected yields were determined to increase as latitude increases due to reduced temperature effects, showing the highest increase for any of the study locations (+24%) in Harbin, China. It appears that the potential negative impact on crop production may be mediated by appropriate cultivar selection and cultivation changes such as alteration of the planting date. Results reported in this study using the CERES-Rice 4.0 model demonstrate the promising potential for its further application in simulating the impacts of climate change on rice production from a local to a regional scale under the monsoon climate system. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Climate Impact on South America due to Land Use Degradation of Amazon Rainforest during Winter and Summer Periods by RegCM3 Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, M. E. S.; Da Rocha, R.; Pereira, G.

2015-12-01

In this study we investigated the climatic impact over South America region due to the increasing of deforestation at the eastern and southern regions of Amazon through the use of the climate model RegCM3 with 50 km of spatial resolution. Many studies, among global and regional models have been used to simulate climatic impact due to deforestation. Most of them used relatively coarse resolution, small domains over South America, besides do not consider deforestation as usually observed. In order to verify the RegCM3 ability to simulate climate impacts due to Amazon deforestation including relatively higher horizontal resolutions, 50 km, a larger domain, the whole South America, deforested areas more similar to the route-shaped commonly seen, and a landuse updating, the model was run for the 2001-2006 period. As the major part of the previous studies focusing Amazon deforestation, RegCM3-50km simulated over degraded areas air temperature increase, ranging from 1.0 to 2.5oC, and precipitation decreasing, ~10%. These aspects are mainly resulting from soil water depletion and roughness vegetation decreasing, both inhibiting evapotranspiration processes. Apart from these results, the model with 50 km simulated precipitation increasing, ~10%, over the eastern South America and adjacent South Atlantic ocean, after Amazon deforestation. Seeking for physical related reasons able to provide the precipitation increasing during rainy seasons, over eastern South America, we found out that upper levels high pressure system (the Bolivian High) intensification, coupled to the southeastward trough, what follows the low troposphere warming, seems to contribute to the precipitation increasing. The climatic impact simulated for winter seasons presents strongest values for areas with altered landuse, over the north region of South America.

The 2010 Pakistan floods: high-resolution simulations with the WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viterbo, Francesca; Parodi, Antonio; Molini, Luca; Provenzale, Antonello; von Hardenberg, Jost; Palazzi, Elisa

2013-04-01

Estimating current and future water resources in high mountain regions with complex orography is a difficult but crucial task. In particular, the French-Italian project PAPRIKA is focused on two specific regions in the Hindu-Kush -- Himalaya -- Karakorum (HKKH)region: the Shigar basin in Pakistan, at the feet of K2, and the Khumbu valley in Nepal, at the feet of Mount Everest. In this framework, we use the WRF model to simulate precipitation and meteorological conditions with high resolution in areas with extreme orographic slopes, comparing the model output with station and satellite data. Once validated the model, we shall run a set of three future time-slices at very high spatial resolution, in the periods 2046-2050, 2071-2075 and 2096-2100, nested in different climate change scenarios (EXtreme PREcipitation and Hydrological climate Scenario Simulations -EXPRESS-Hydro project). As a prelude to this study, here we discuss the simulation of specific, high-intensity rainfall events in this area. In this paper we focus on the 2010 Pakistan floods which began in late July 2010, producing heavy monsoon rains in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan regions of Pakistan and affecting the Indus River basin. Approximately one-fifth of Pakistan's total land area was underwater, with a death toll of about 2000 people. This event has been simulated with the WRF model (version 3.3.) in cloud-permitting mode (d01 14 km and d02 3.5 km): different convective closures and microphysics parameterization have been used. A deeper understanding of the processes responsible for this event has been gained through comparison with rainfall depth observations, radiosounding data and geostationary/polar satellite images.

Analysis of the present and future winter Pacific-North American teleconnection in the ECHAM5 global and RegCM3 regional climate models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allan, Andrea M.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Alder, Jay R.

2014-01-01

We use the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NCEP) and the MPI/ECHAM5 general circulation model to drive the RegCM3 regional climate model to assess the ability of the models to reproduce the spatiotemporal aspects of the Pacific-North American teleconnection (PNA) pattern. Composite anomalies of the NCEP-driven RegCM3 simulations for 1982–2000 indicate that the regional model is capable of accurately simulating the key features (500-hPa heights, surface temperature, and precipitation) of the positive and negative phases of the PNA with little loss of information in the downscaling process. The basic structure of the PNA is captured in both the ECHAM5 global and ECHAM5-driven RegCM3 simulations. The 1950–2000 ECHAM5 simulation displays similar temporal and spatial variability in the PNA index as that of NCEP; however, the magnitudes of the positive and negative phases are weaker than those of NCEP. The RegCM3 simulations clearly differentiate the climatology and associated anomalies of snow water equivalent and soil moisture of the positive and negative PNA phases. In the RegCM3 simulations of the future (2050–2100), changes in the location and extent of the Aleutian low and the continental high over North America alter the dominant flow patterns associated with positive and negative PNA modes. The future projections display a shift in the patterns of the relationship between the PNA and surface climate variables, which suggest the potential for changes in the PNA-related surface hydrology of North America.

Nonhydrostatic nested climate modeling: A case study of the 2010 summer season over the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebassi-Habtezion, Bereket; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2013-10-01

potential importance of local-scale climate phenomena motivates development of approaches to enable computationally feasible nonhydrostatic climate simulations. To that end, we evaluate the potential viability of nested nonhydrostatic model approaches, using the summer climate of the western United States (WUSA) as a case study. We use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to carry out five simulations of summer 2010. This suite allows us to test differences between nonhydrostatic and hydrostatic resolutions, single and multiple nesting approaches, and high- and low-resolution reanalysis boundary conditions. WRF simulations were evaluated against station observations, gridded observations, and reanalysis data over domains that cover the 11 WUSA states at nonhydrostatic grid spacing of 4 km and hydrostatic grid spacing of 25 km and 50 km. Results show that the nonhydrostatic simulations more accurately resolve the heterogeneity of surface temperature, precipitation, and wind speed features associated with the topography and orography of the WUSA region. In addition, we find that the simulation in which the nonhydrostatic grid is nested directly within the regional reanalysis exhibits the greatest overall agreement with observational data. Results therefore indicate that further development of nonhydrostatic nesting approaches is likely to yield important insights into the response of local-scale climate phenomena to increases in global greenhouse gas concentrations. However, the biases in regional precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and moisture flux identified in a subset of the nonhydrostatic simulations suggest that alternative nonhydrostatic modeling approaches such as superparameterization and variable-resolution global nonhydrostatic modeling will provide important complements to the nested approaches tested here.

Influence of Boundary Conditions on Simulated U.S. Air Quality

EPA Science Inventory

One of the key inputs to regional-scale photochemical models frequently used in air quality planning and forecasting applications are chemical boundary conditions representing background pollutant concentrations originating outside the regional modeling domain. A number of studie...

Vegetation-climate feedback causes reduced precipitation and tropical rainforest cover in CMIP5 regional Earth system model simulation over Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, M.; Smith, B.; Samuelsson, P.; Rummukainen, M.; Schurgers, G.

2012-12-01

We applied a coupled regional climate-vegetation model, RCA-GUESS (Smith et al. 2011), over the CORDEX Africa domain, forced by boundary conditions from a CanESM2 CMIP5 simulation under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The simulations were from 1961 to 2100 and covered the African continent at a horizontal grid spacing of 0.44°. RCA-GUESS simulates changes in the phenology, productivity, relative cover and population structure of up to eight plant function types (PFTs) in response to forcing from the climate part of the model. These vegetation changes feed back to simulated climate through dynamic adjustments in surface energy fluxes and surface properties. Changes in the net ecosystem-atmosphere carbon flux and its components net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration and emissions from biomass burning were also simulated but do not feed back to climate in our model. Constant land cover was assumed. We compared simulations with and without vegetation feedback switched "on" to assess the influence of vegetation-climate feedback on simulated climate, vegetation and ecosystem carbon cycling. Both positive and negative warming feedbacks were identified in different parts of Africa. In the Sahel savannah zone near 15°N, reduced vegetation cover and productivity, and mortality caused by a deterioration of soil water conditions led to a positive warming feedback mediated by decreased evapotranspiration and increased sensible heat flux between vegetation and the atmosphere. In the equatorial rainforest stronghold region of central Africa, a feedback syndrome characterised by reduced plant production and LAI, a dominance shift from tropical trees to grasses, reduced soil water and reduced rainfall was identified. The likely underlying mechanism was a decline in evaporative water recycling associated with sparser vegetation cover, reminiscent of Earth system model studies in which a similar feedback mechanism was simulated to force dieback of tropical rainforest and reduced precipitation over the Amazon Basin (Cox et al. 2000; Betts et al. 2004; Malhi et al. 2009). Opposite effects are seen in southern Senegal, southern Mali, northern Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, positive evapotranspiration feedback enhancing the cover of trees in forest and savannah, mitigating warming and promoting local moisture recycling as rainfall. Our study, the first application of a coupled Earth system model at regional scale and resolution over Africa, reveals that vegetation-climate feedbacks may significantly impact the magnitude and character of simulated changes in climate as well as vegetation and ecosystems in future scenario studies of this region. They should be accounted for in future studies of climate change and its impacts on Africa.

Towards Improving Satellite Tropospheric NO2 Retrieval Products: Impacts of the spatial resolution and lighting NOx production from the a priori chemical transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smeltzer, C. D.; Wang, Y.; Zhao, C.; Boersma, F.

2009-12-01

Polar orbiting satellite retrievals of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) columns are important to a variety of scientific applications. These NO2 retrievals rely on a priori profiles from chemical transport models and radiative transfer models to derive the vertical columns (VCs) from slant columns measurements. In this work, we compare the retrieval results using a priori profiles from a global model (TM4) and a higher resolution regional model (REAM) at the OMI overpass hour of 1330 local time, implementing the Dutch OMI NO2 (DOMINO) retrieval. We also compare the retrieval results using a priori profiles from REAM model simulations with and without lightning NOx (NO + NO2) production. A priori model resolution and lightning NOx production are both found to have large impact on satellite retrievals by altering the satellite sensitivity to a particular observation by shifting the NO2 vertical distribution interpreted by the radiation model. The retrieved tropospheric NO2 VCs may increase by 25-100% in urban regions and be reduced by 50% in rural regions if the a priori profiles from REAM simulations are used during the retrievals instead of the profiles from TM4 simulations. The a priori profiles with lightning NOx may result in a 25-50% reduction of the retrieved tropospheric NO2 VCs compared to the a priori profiles without lightning. As first priority, a priori vertical NO2 profiles from a chemical transport model with a high resolution, which can better simulate urban-rural NO2 gradients in the boundary layer and make use of observation-based parameterizations of lightning NOx production, should be first implemented to obtain more accurate NO2 retrievals over the United States, where NOx source regions are spatially separated and lightning NOx production is significant. Then as consequence of a priori NO2 profile variabilities resulting from lightning and model resolution dynamics, geostationary satellite, daylight observations would further promote the next step towards producing a more complete NO2 data product provided sufficient resolution of the observations. Both the corrected retrieval algorithm and the proposed next generation geostationary satellite observations would thus improve emission inventories, better validate model simulations, and advantageously optimize regional specific ozone control strategies.

Land Conversion in Amazonia and Northern South America; Influences on Regional Hydrology and Ecosystem Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knox, Ryan Gary

A numerical model of the terrestrial biosphere (Ecosystem Demography Model) is compbined with an atmospheric model (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) to investigate how land conversion in the Amazon and Northern South America have changed the hydrology of the region, and to see if those changes are significant enough to produce an ecological response. Two numerical realizations of the structure and composition of terrestrial vegetation are used as boundary conditions in a simulation of the regional land surface and atmosphere. One realization seeks to capture the present day vegetation condition that includes human deforestation and land-conversion, the other is an estimate of the potential structure and composition of the region without human influence. Model output is assessed for consistent and significant differences in hydrometeorology. Locations that show compelling differences are taken as case studies. The seasonal biases in precipitation at these locations are then used to create perturbations to long-term climate datasets. These perturbations then drive long-term simulations of dynamic vegetation to see if the climate consistent with a potential regional vegetation could elicit a change in the vegetation equilibrium at the site. Results show that South American land conversion has had consistent impacts on the regional patterning of precipitation. At some locations, changes in precipitation are persistent and constitute a significant fraction of total precipitation. Land-conversion has decreased mean continental evaporation and increased mean moisture convergence. Case study simulations of long term vegetation dynamic indicate that a hydrologic climate consistent with regional potential vegetation can indeed have significant influence on ecosystem structure and composition, particularly in water limited growth conditions. (Copies available exclusively from MIT Libraries, libraries.mit.edu/docs - docs@mit.edu)

Topography-based Flood Planning and Optimization Capability Development Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Judi, David R.; Tasseff, Byron A.; Bent, Russell W.

2014-02-26

Globally, water-related disasters are among the most frequent and costly natural hazards. Flooding inflicts catastrophic damage on critical infrastructure and population, resulting in substantial economic and social costs. NISAC is developing LeveeSim, a suite of nonlinear and network optimization models, to predict optimal barrier placement to protect critical regions and infrastructure during flood events. LeveeSim currently includes a high-performance flood model to simulate overland flow, as well as a network optimization model to predict optimal barrier placement during a flood event. The LeveeSim suite models the effects of flooding in predefined regions. By manipulating a domain’s underlying topography, developers alteredmore » flood propagation to reduce detrimental effects in areas of interest. This numerical altering of a domain’s topography is analogous to building levees, placing sandbags, etc. To induce optimal changes in topography, NISAC used a novel application of an optimization algorithm to minimize flooding effects in regions of interest. To develop LeveeSim, NISAC constructed and coupled hydrodynamic and optimization algorithms. NISAC first implemented its existing flood modeling software to use massively parallel graphics processing units (GPUs), which allowed for the simulation of larger domains and longer timescales. NISAC then implemented a network optimization model to predict optimal barrier placement based on output from flood simulations. As proof of concept, NISAC developed five simple test scenarios, and optimized topographic solutions were compared with intuitive solutions. Finally, as an early validation example, barrier placement was optimized to protect an arbitrary region in a simulation of the historic Taum Sauk dam breach.« less

Simulation of black carbon aerosol distribution over India: A sensitivity study to different convective schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Sudipta; Dey, Sagnik; Das, Sushant; Venkataraman, Chandra; Patil, Nitin U.

2017-04-01

Black carbon (BC) aerosols absorb solar radiation, thereby causing a warming at the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) in contrast to most of the other aerosol species that scatter radiation causing a cooling at TOA. BC is considered to be an important contributor of global warming, second only to CO2 with a net radiative forcing of 1.1 w/m2. They have important regional climate effects, because of their spatially non-uniform heating and cooling. So it is very important to understand the spatio-temporal distribution of BC over India. In this study, we have used a regional climate model RegCM4.5 to simulate BC distribution over India with a focus on the BC estimation. The importance of incorporation of regional emission inventory has been shown and the sensitivity of BC distribution to various convective schemes in the model has been explored. The model output has been validated with in-situ observations. It is quite evident that regional inventory is capturing larger columnar burden of BC and OC than the global inventory. The difference in BC burden is clear at many places with the largest difference (in the order from 2 x 10-11 kg m-2 sec-1 in global inventory to 4 x 10-11 kg m-2 sec-1 in regional inventory) being observed over the Indo-Gangetic Basin. This difference is mainly attributed to the local sources like kerosene lamp burning, residential cooking on solid biomass fuel and agricultural residue burning etc., that are not considered in the global inventory. The difference is also noticeable for OC. Thus BC burden has increased with incorporation of regional emission inventory in the model, suggesting the importance of regional inventory in improved simulation and estimation of aerosols in this region. BC distribution is also sensitive to choice of scheme with Emanuel scheme capturing a comparatively smaller BC burden during the monsoon than Tiedtke scheme. Further long-term simulation with customized model is required to examine impact of BC. Keywords: Black carbon, RegCM4, regional emission inventory, convective schemes.

Estimation of phosphorous loss from agricultural land in the Heartland region of the U.S.A. using the APEX model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Accurate phosphorus (P) loss estimation from agricultural land is important for development of best management practices and protection of water quality. The Agricultural Policy/Environmental Extender (APEX) model is a powerful simulation model designed to simulate edge-of-field water, sediment, an...

Simulating forage crop production in a northern climate with the Integrated Farm System Model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Whole-farm simulation models are useful tools for evaluating the effect of management practices and climate variability on the agro-environmental and economic performance of farms. A few process-based farm-scale models have been developed, but none have been evaluated in a northern region with a sho...

Impact of Assimilation on Heavy Rainfall Simulations Using WRF Model: Sensitivity of Assimilation Results to Background Error Statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakesh, V.; Kantharao, B.

2017-03-01

Data assimilation is considered as one of the effective tools for improving forecast skill of mesoscale models. However, for optimum utilization and effective assimilation of observations, many factors need to be taken into account while designing data assimilation methodology. One of the critical components that determines the amount and propagation observation information into the analysis, is model background error statistics (BES). The objective of this study is to quantify how BES in data assimilation impacts on simulation of heavy rainfall events over a southern state in India, Karnataka. Simulations of 40 heavy rainfall events were carried out using Weather Research and Forecasting Model with and without data assimilation. The assimilation experiments were conducted using global and regional BES while the experiment with no assimilation was used as the baseline for assessing the impact of data assimilation. The simulated rainfall is verified against high-resolution rain-gage observations over Karnataka. Statistical evaluation using several accuracy and skill measures shows that data assimilation has improved the heavy rainfall simulation. Our results showed that the experiment using regional BES outperformed the one which used global BES. Critical thermo-dynamic variables conducive for heavy rainfall like convective available potential energy simulated using regional BES is more realistic compared to global BES. It is pointed out that these results have important practical implications in design of forecast platforms while decision-making during extreme weather events

Modeling AFM-induced PEVK extension and the reversible unfolding of Ig/FNIII domains in single and multiple titin molecules.

PubMed Central

Zhang, B; Evans, J S

2001-01-01

Molecular elasticity is associated with a select number of polypeptides and proteins, such as titin, Lustrin A, silk fibroin, and spider silk dragline protein. In the case of titin, the globular (Ig) and non-globular (PEVK) regions act as extensible springs under stretch; however, their unfolding behavior and force extension characteristics are different. Using our time-dependent macroscopic method for simulating AFM-induced titin Ig domain unfolding and refolding, we simulate the extension and relaxation of hypothetical titin chains containing Ig domains and a PEVK region. Two different models are explored: 1) a series-linked WLC expression that treats the PEVK region as a distinct entropic spring, and 2) a summation of N single WLC expressions that simulates the extension and release of a discrete number of parallel titin chains containing constant or variable amounts of PEVK. In addition to these simulations, we also modeled the extension of a hypothetical PEVK domain using a linear Hooke's spring model to account for "enthalpic" contributions to PEVK elasticity. We find that the modified WLC simulations feature chain length compensation, Ig domain unfolding/refolding, and force-extension behavior that more closely approximate AFM, laser tweezer, and immunolocalization experimental data. In addition, our simulations reveal the following: 1) PEVK extension overlaps with the onset of Ig domain unfolding, and 2) variations in PEVK content within a titin chain ensemble lead to elastic diversity within that ensemble. PMID:11159428

Description and Evaluation of IAP-AACM: A Global-regional Aerosol Chemistry Model for the Earth System Model CAS-ESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Y.; Chen, X.

2017-12-01

We present a first description and evaluation of the IAP Atmospheric Aerosol Chemistry Model (IAP-AACM) which has been integrated into the earth system model CAS-ESM. In this way it is possible to research into interaction of clouds and aerosol by its two-way coupling with the IAP Atmospheric General Circulation Model (IAP-AGCM). The model has a nested global-regional grid based on the Global Environmental Atmospheric Transport Model (GEATM) and the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS). The AACM provides two optional gas chemistry schemes, the CBM-Z gas chemistry as well as a sulfur oxidize box designed specifically for the CAS-ESM. Now the model driven by AGCM has been applied to a 1-year simulation of tropospheric chemistry both on global and regional scales for 2014, and been evaluated against various observation datasets, including aerosol precursor gas concentration, aerosol mass and number concentrations. Furthermore, global budgets in AACM are compared with other global aerosol models. Generally, the AACM simulations are within the range of other global aerosol model predictions, and the model has a reasonable agreement with observations of gases and particles concentration both on global and regional scales.

ADAPTATION OF THE ADVANCED STATISTICAL TRAJECTORY REGIONAL AIR POLLUTION (ASTRAP) MODEL TO THE EPA VAX COMPUTER - MODIFICATIONS AND TESTING

EPA Science Inventory

The Advanced Statistical Trajectory Regional Air Pollution (ASTRAP) model simulates long-term transport and deposition of oxides of and nitrogen. t is a potential screening tool for assessing long-term effects on regional visibility from sulfur emission sources. owever, a rigorou...

Examining the Impact of Nitrous Acid Chemistry on Ozone and PM over the Pearl River Delta Region

EPA Science Inventory

The impact of nitrous acid (HONO) chemistry on regional ozone and particulate matter in Pearl River Delta region was investigated using the community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) modeling system and the CB05 mechanism. Model simulations were conducted for a ten-day period in Oct...

GLIMPSE: A GCAM-USA-based tool for supporting coordinated energy and environmental planning

EPA Science Inventory

GCAM-USA is an integrated assessment model, meaning that it simulates the interactions among human and earth systems. GCAM-USA is derived from GCAM, which represents the U.S. as one region within a 32-region global model. GCAM-USA subdivides the U.S. region into 50 states and the...

[Micro-simulation of firms' heterogeneity on pollution intensity and regional characteristics].

PubMed

Zhao, Nan; Liu, Yi; Chen, Ji-Ning

2009-11-01

In the same industrial sector, heterogeneity of pollution intensity exists among firms. There are some errors if using sector's average pollution intensity, which are calculated by limited number of firms in environmental statistic database to represent the sector's regional economic-environmental status. Based on the production function which includes environmental depletion as input, a micro-simulation model on firms' operational decision making is proposed. Then the heterogeneity of firms' pollution intensity can be mechanically described. Taking the mechanical manufacturing sector in Deyang city, 2005 as the case, the model's parameters were estimated. And the actual COD emission intensities of environmental statistic firms can be properly matched by the simulation. The model's results also show that the regional average COD emission intensity calculated by the environmental statistic firms (0.002 6 t per 10 000 yuan fixed asset, 0.001 5 t per 10 000 yuan production value) is lower than the regional average intensity calculated by all the firms in the region (0.003 0 t per 10 000 yuan fixed asset, 0.002 3 t per 10 000 yuan production value). The difference among average intensities in the six counties is significant as well. These regional characteristics of pollution intensity attribute to the sector's inner-structure (firms' scale distribution, technology distribution) and its spatial deviation.

An optimized data fusion method and its application to improve lateral boundary conditions in winter for Pearl River Delta regional PM2.5 modeling, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Zhijiong; Hu, Yongtao; Zheng, Junyu; Zhai, Xinxin; Huang, Ran

2018-05-01

Lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) are essential for chemical transport models to simulate regional transport; however they often contain large uncertainties. This study proposes an optimized data fusion approach to reduce the bias of LBCs by fusing gridded model outputs, from which the daughter domain's LBCs are derived, with ground-level measurements. The optimized data fusion approach follows the framework of a previous interpolation-based fusion method but improves it by using a bias kriging method to correct the spatial bias in gridded model outputs. Cross-validation shows that the optimized approach better estimates fused fields in areas with a large number of observations compared to the previous interpolation-based method. The optimized approach was applied to correct LBCs of PM2.5 concentrations for simulations in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region as a case study. Evaluations show that the LBCs corrected by data fusion improve in-domain PM2.5 simulations in terms of the magnitude and temporal variance. Correlation increases by 0.13-0.18 and fractional bias (FB) decreases by approximately 3%-15%. This study demonstrates the feasibility of applying data fusion to improve regional air quality modeling.

A Gaussian mixture model based adaptive classifier for fNIRS brain-computer interfaces and its testing via simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zheng; Jiang, Yi-han; Duan, Lian; Zhu, Chao-zhe

2017-08-01

Objective. Functional near infra-red spectroscopy (fNIRS) is a promising brain imaging technology for brain-computer interfaces (BCI). Future clinical uses of fNIRS will likely require operation over long time spans, during which neural activation patterns may change. However, current decoders for fNIRS signals are not designed to handle changing activation patterns. The objective of this study is to test via simulations a new adaptive decoder for fNIRS signals, the Gaussian mixture model adaptive classifier (GMMAC). Approach. GMMAC can simultaneously classify and track activation pattern changes without the need for ground-truth labels. This adaptive classifier uses computationally efficient variational Bayesian inference to label new data points and update mixture model parameters, using the previous model parameters as priors. We test GMMAC in simulations in which neural activation patterns change over time and compare to static decoders and unsupervised adaptive linear discriminant analysis classifiers. Main results. Our simulation experiments show GMMAC can accurately decode under time-varying activation patterns: shifts of activation region, expansions of activation region, and combined contractions and shifts of activation region. Furthermore, the experiments show the proposed method can track the changing shape of the activation region. Compared to prior work, GMMAC performed significantly better than the other unsupervised adaptive classifiers on a difficult activation pattern change simulation: 99% versus  <54% in two-choice classification accuracy. Significance. We believe GMMAC will be useful for clinical fNIRS-based brain-computer interfaces, including neurofeedback training systems, where operation over long time spans is required.

Elevation-dependent warming in global climate model simulations at high spatial resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palazzi, Elisa; Mortarini, Luca; Terzago, Silvia; von Hardenberg, Jost

2018-06-01

The enhancement of warming rates with elevation, so-called elevation-dependent warming (EDW), is one of the regional, still not completely understood, expressions of global warming. Sentinels of climate and environmental changes, mountains have experienced more rapid and intense warming trends in the recent decades, leading to serious impacts on mountain ecosystems and downstream. In this paper we use a state-of-the-art Global Climate Model (EC-Earth) to investigate the impact of model spatial resolution on the representation of this phenomenon and to highlight possible differences in EDW and its causes in different mountain regions of the Northern Hemisphere. To this end we use EC-Earth climate simulations at five different spatial resolutions, from ˜ 125 to ˜ 16 km, to explore the existence and the driving mechanisms of EDW in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, the Greater Alpine Region and the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayas. Our results show that the more frequent EDW drivers in all regions and seasons are the changes in albedo and in downward thermal radiation and this is reflected in both daytime and nighttime warming. In the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayas and in the Greater Alpine Region, an additional driver is the change in specific humidity. We also find that, while generally the model shows no clear resolution dependence in its ability to simulate the existence of EDW in the different regions, specific EDW characteristics such as its intensity and the relative role of different driving mechanisms may be different in simulations performed at different spatial resolutions. Moreover, we find that the role of internal climate variability can be significant in modulating the EDW signal, as suggested by the spread found in the multi-member ensemble of the EC-Earth experiments which we use.

Assessing recent and near-future changes in Southern California's groundwater storage from the perspective of regional climate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Sales, F.; Rother, D.

2017-12-01

Current climate change assessments project an increase in temperature throughout the western U.S. over the next century, while precipitation is projected to decrease in the Southwest. These assessments are based mainly on coarse spatial resolution general circulation model (GCM) simulations, which do not include groundwater (soil and aquifer) storage projections. However, water availability is a regionally variable resource and climate change impacts on groundwater distribution will probably differ regionally across the southwestern U.S. We have implemented a coupled atmosphere-biosphere-aquifer regional modelling system (WRF/SSiB2/SIMGM) to generate recent (2005-2017) and near-future (2018-2030) high-resolution groundwater projections for Southern California. These projections are obtained by dynamic downscaling data from the Global Operation Analysis (recent) and the NCAR Community Earth System Model CMIP5 global projections (near future), which supported the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report. Near-future simulations include three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios namely, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5. The model can reasonably simulate the recent changes in Southern California's groundwater as indicated by a comparison to terrestrial water storage obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment dataset. In particular, the 2011-2017 drought is simulated well with total groundwater storages declining throughout the period, especially along the western portion of the domain, which includes the high-populated areas of western Los Angeles, San Diego, Ventura and Orange counties. In general, the near-future simulations show a decline in groundwater storage for the region. The largest changes are observed with the RCP8.5 emission pathway, towards to southeastern tier of the study area. In addition to groundwater, this downscaling experiment also generates high-resolution precipitation and temperature estimates, which can help policy makers in the development of strategies to alleviate potential water resource deficiencies in California in the near future.

The Future of Drought in the Southeastern U.S.: Projections from downscaled CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keellings, D.; Engstrom, J.

2017-12-01

The Southeastern U.S. has been repeatedly impacted by severe droughts that have affected the environment and economy of the region. In this study the ability of 32 downscaled CMIP5 models, bias corrected using localized constructed analogs (LOCA), to simulate historical observations of dry spells from 1950-2005 are assessed using Perkins skill scores and significance tests. The models generally simulate the distribution of dry days well but there are significant differences between the ability of the best and worst performing models, particularly when it comes to the upper tail of the distribution. The best and worst performing models are then projected through 2099, using RCP 4.5 and 8.5, and estimates of 20 year return periods are compared. Only the higher skill models provide a good estimate of extreme dry spell lengths with simulations of 20 year return values within ± 5 days of observed values across the region. Projected return values differ by model grouping, but all models exhibit significant increases.

A Nested Modeling Scheme for High-resolution Simulation of the Aquitard Compaction in a Regional Groundwater Extraction Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aichi, M.; Tokunaga, T.

2006-12-01

In the fields that experienced both significant drawdown/land subsidence and the recovery of groundwater potential, temporal change of the effective stress in the clayey layers is not simple. Conducting consolidation tests of core samples is a straightforward approach to know the pre-consolidation stress. However, especially in the urban area, the cost of boring and the limitation of sites for boring make it difficult to carry out enough number of tests. Numerical simulation to reproduce stress history can contribute to selecting boring sites and to complement the results of the laboratory tests. To trace the effective stress profile in the clayey layers by numerical simulation, discretization in the clayey layers should be fine. At the same time, the size of the modeled domain should be large enough to calculate the effect of regional groundwater extraction. Here, we developed a new scheme to reduce memory consumption based on domain decomposition technique. A finite element model of coupled groundwater flow and land subsidence is used for the local model, and a finite difference groundwater flow model is used for the regional model. The local model is discretized to fine mesh in the clayey layers to reproduce the temporal change of pore pressure in the layers while the regional model is discretized to relatively coarse mesh to reproduce the effect of the regional groundwater extraction on the groundwater flow. We have tested this scheme by comparing the results obtained from this scheme with those from the finely gridded model for the entire calculation domain. The difference between the results of these models was small enough and our new scheme can be used for the practical problem.

Simulations of Seismic Wave Propagation on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bozdağ, Ebru; Ruan, Youyi; Metthez, Nathan; Khan, Amir; Leng, Kuangdai; van Driel, Martin; Wieczorek, Mark; Rivoldini, Attilio; Larmat, Carène S.; Giardini, Domenico; Tromp, Jeroen; Lognonné, Philippe; Banerdt, Bruce W.

2017-10-01

We present global and regional synthetic seismograms computed for 1D and 3D Mars models based on the spectral-element method. For global simulations, we implemented a radially-symmetric Mars model with a 110 km thick crust (Sohl and Spohn in J. Geophys. Res., Planets 102(E1):1613-1635, 1997). For this 1D model, we successfully benchmarked the 3D seismic wave propagation solver SPECFEM3D_GLOBE (Komatitsch and Tromp in Geophys. J. Int. 149(2):390-412, 2002a; 150(1):303-318, 2002b) against the 2D axisymmetric wave propagation solver AxiSEM (Nissen-Meyer et al. in Solid Earth 5(1):425-445, 2014) at periods down to 10 s. We also present higher-resolution body-wave simulations with AxiSEM down to 1 s in a model with a more complex 1D crust, revealing wave propagation effects that would have been difficult to interpret based on ray theory. For 3D global simulations based on SPECFEM3D_GLOBE, we superimposed 3D crustal thickness variations capturing the distinct crustal dichotomy between Mars' northern and southern hemispheres, as well as topography, ellipticity, gravity, and rotation. The global simulations clearly indicate that the 3D crust speeds up body waves compared to the reference 1D model, whereas it significantly changes surface waveforms and their dispersive character depending on its thickness. We also perform regional simulations with the solver SES3D (Fichtner et al. Geophys. J. Int. 179:1703-1725, 2009) based on 3D crustal models derived from surface composition, thereby addressing the effects of various distinct crustal features down to 2 s. The regional simulations confirm the strong effects of crustal variations on waveforms. We conclude that the numerical tools are ready for examining more scenarios, including various other seismic models and sources.

Brief Communication: Upper Air Relaxation in RACMO2 Significantly Improves Modelled Interannual Surface Mass Balance Variability in Antarctica

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

van de Berg, W. J.; Medley, B.

2016-01-01

The Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2) has been a powerful tool for improving surface mass balance (SMB) estimates from GCMs or reanalyses. However, new yearly SMB observations for West Antarctica show that the modelled interannual variability in SMB is poorly simulated by RACMO2, in contrast to ERA-Interim, which resolves this variability well. In an attempt to remedy RACMO2 performance, we included additional upper-air relaxation (UAR) in RACMO2. With UAR, the correlation to observations is similar for RACMO2 and ERA-Interim. The spatial SMB patterns and ice-sheet-integrated SMB modelled using UAR remain very similar to the estimates of RACMO2 without UAR. We only observe an upstream smoothing of precipitation in regions with very steep topography like the Antarctic Peninsula. We conclude that UAR is a useful improvement for regional climate model simulations, although results in regions with steep topography should be treated with care.

Influence of deep sedimentary basins, crustal thining, attenuation, and topography on regional phases: selected examples from theEastern Mediteranean and the Caspian Sea Regions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldstein, P.; Schultz, C.; Larsen, S.

1997-07-15

Monitoring of a CTBT will require transportable seismic identification techniques, especially in regions where there is limited data. Unfortunately, most existing techniques are empirical and can not be used reliably in new regions. Our goal is to help develop transportable regional identification techniques by improving our ability to predict the behavior of regional phases and discriminants in diverse geologic regions and in regions with little or no data. Our approach is to use numerical modeling to understand the physical basis for regional wave propagation phenomena and to use this understanding to help explain observed behavior of regional phases and discriminants.more » In this paper, we focus on results from simulations of data in selected regions and investigate the sensitivity of these regional simulations to various features of the crustal structure. Our initial models use teleseismically estimated source locations, mechanisms, and durations and seismological structures that have been determined by others. We model the Mb 5.9, October 1992, Cairo Egypt earthquake at a station at Ankara Turkey (ANTO) using a two-dimensional crustal model consisting of a water layer over a deep sedimentary basin with a thinning crust beneath the basin. Despite the complex tectonics of the Eastern Mediterranean region, we find surprisingly good agreement between the observed data and synthetics based on this relatively smooth two-dimensional model.« less

Coniferous canopy BRF simulation based on 3-D realistic scene.

PubMed

Wang, Xin-Yun; Guo, Zhi-Feng; Qin, Wen-Han; Sun, Guo-Qing

2011-09-01

It is difficulties for the computer simulation method to study radiation regime at large-scale. Simplified coniferous model was investigated in the present study. It makes the computer simulation methods such as L-systems and radiosity-graphics combined method (RGM) more powerful in remote sensing of heterogeneous coniferous forests over a large-scale region. L-systems is applied to render 3-D coniferous forest scenarios, and RGM model was used to calculate BRF (bidirectional reflectance factor) in visible and near-infrared regions. Results in this study show that in most cases both agreed well. Meanwhile at a tree and forest level, the results are also good.

Coniferous Canopy BRF Simulation Based on 3-D Realistic Scene

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Xin-yun; Guo, Zhi-feng; Qin, Wen-han; Sun, Guo-qing

2011-01-01

It is difficulties for the computer simulation method to study radiation regime at large-scale. Simplified coniferous model was investigate d in the present study. It makes the computer simulation methods such as L-systems and radiosity-graphics combined method (RGM) more powerf ul in remote sensing of heterogeneous coniferous forests over a large -scale region. L-systems is applied to render 3-D coniferous forest scenarios: and RGM model was used to calculate BRF (bidirectional refle ctance factor) in visible and near-infrared regions. Results in this study show that in most cases both agreed well. Meanwhiie at a tree and forest level. the results are also good.

Downscaling with a nested regional climate model in near-surface fields over the contiguous United States: WRF dynamical downscaling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jiali; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R.

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for dynamic downscaling of 2.5 degree National Centers for Environmental Prediction-U.S. Department of Energy Reanalysis II (NCEP-R2) data for 1980-2010 at 12 km resolution over most of North America. The model's performance for surface air temperature and precipitation is evaluated by comparison with high-resolution observational data sets. The model's ability to add value is investigated by comparison with NCEP-R2 data and a 50 km regional climate simulation. The causes for major model bias are studied through additional sensitivity experiments with various model setup/integration approaches and physics representations. The WRF captures themore » main features of the spatial patterns and annual cycles of air temperature and precipitation over most of the contiguous United States. However, simulated air temperatures over the south central region and precipitation over the Great Plains and the Southwest have significant biases. Allowing longer spin-up time, reducing the nudging strength, or replacing the WRF Single-Moment 6-class microphysics with Morrison microphysics reduces the bias over some subregions. However, replacing the Grell-Devenyi cumulus parameterization with Kain-Fritsch shows no improvement. The 12 km simulation does add value above the NCEP-R2 data and the 50 km simulation over mountainous and coastal zones.« less

Using Coupled Groundwater-Surface Water Models to Simulate Eco-Regional Differences in Climate Change Impacts on Hydrological Drought Regimes in British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dierauer, J. R.; Allen, D. M.

2016-12-01

Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in extremes, including daily maximum temperatures, heat waves, and meteorological droughts, which will likely result in shifts in the hydrological drought regime (i.e. the frequency, timing, duration, and severity of drought events). While many studies have used hydrologic models to simulate climate change impacts on water resources, only a small portion of these studies have analyzed impacts on low flows and/or hydrological drought. This study is the first to use a fully coupled groundwater-surface water (gw-sw) model to study climate change impacts on hydrological drought. Generic catchment-scale gw-sw models were created for each of the six major eco-regions in British Columbia using the MIKE-SHE/MIKE-11 modelling code. Daily precipitation and temperature time series downscaled using bias-correction spatial disaggregation for the simulated period of 1950-2100 were obtained from the Pacific Climate Institute Consortium (PCIC). Streamflow and groundwater drought events were identified from the simulated time series for each catchment model using the moving window quantile threshold. The frequency, timing, duration, and severity of drought events were compared between the reference period (1961-2000) and two future time periods (2031-2060, 2071-2100). Results show how hydrological drought regimes across the different British Columbia eco-regions will be impacted by climate change.

Dressing the Coronal Magnetic Extrapolations of Active Regions with a Parameterized Thermal Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nita, Gelu M.; Viall, Nicholeen M.; Klimchuk, James A.; Loukitcheva, Maria A.; Gary, Dale E.; Kuznetsov, Alexey A.; Fleishman, Gregory D.

2018-01-01

The study of time-dependent solar active region (AR) morphology and its relation to eruptive events requires analysis of imaging data obtained in multiple wavelength domains with differing spatial and time resolution, ideally in combination with 3D physical models. To facilitate this goal, we have undertaken a major enhancement of our IDL-based simulation tool, GX_Simulator, previously developed for modeling microwave and X-ray emission from flaring loops, to allow it to simulate quiescent emission from solar ARs. The framework includes new tools for building the atmospheric model and enhanced routines for calculating emission that include new wavelengths. In this paper, we use our upgraded tool to model and analyze an AR and compare the synthetic emission maps with observations. We conclude that the modeled magneto-thermal structure is a reasonably good approximation of the real one.

Use of state-and-transition simulation modeling in National Forest planning in the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A

Treesearch

Ayn J. Shlisky; Don Vandendriesche

2012-01-01

Effective national forest planning depends on scientifically sound analyses of land management alternatives relative to desired future conditions and environmental effects. The USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Region is currently using state-and-transition simulation models (STMs) to simulate changes in forest composition and structure for the revisions of five...

Investigating added value of regional climate modeling in North American winter storm track simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poan, E. D.; Gachon, P.; Laprise, R.; Aider, R.; Dueymes, G.

2018-03-01

Extratropical Cyclone (EC) characteristics depend on a combination of large-scale factors and regional processes. However, the latter are considered to be poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs), partly because their resolution is too coarse. This paper describes a framework using possibilities given by regional climate models (RCMs) to gain insight into storm activity during winter over North America (NA). Recent past climate period (1981-2005) is considered to assess EC activity over NA using the NCEP regional reanalysis (NARR) as a reference, along with the European reanalysis ERA-Interim (ERAI) and two CMIP5 GCMs used to drive the Canadian Regional Climate Model—version 5 (CRCM5) and the corresponding regional-scale simulations. While ERAI and GCM simulations show basic agreement with NARR in terms of climatological storm track patterns, detailed bias analyses show that, on the one hand, ERAI presents statistically significant positive biases in terms of EC genesis and therefore occurrence while capturing their intensity fairly well. On the other hand, GCMs present large negative intensity biases in the overall NA domain and particularly over NA eastern coast. In addition, storm occurrence over the northwestern topographic regions is highly overestimated. When the CRCM5 is driven by ERAI, no significant skill deterioration arises and, more importantly, all storm characteristics near areas with marked relief and over regions with large water masses are significantly improved with respect to ERAI. Conversely, in GCM-driven simulations, the added value contributed by CRCM5 is less prominent and systematic, except over western NA areas with high topography and over the Western Atlantic coastlines where the most frequent and intense ECs are located. Despite this significant added-value on seasonal-mean characteristics, a caveat is raised on the RCM ability to handle storm temporal `seriality', as a measure of their temporal variability at a given location. In fact, the driving models induce some significant footprints on the RCM skill to reproduce the intra-seasonal pattern of storm activity.

Global Three-dimensional Simulation of the Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Interaction Using a Two-way Coupled Magnetohydrodynamics with Embedded Particle-in-Cell Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Y.; Toth, G.; Cassak, P.; Jia, X.; Gombosi, T. I.; Slavin, J. A.; Welling, D. T.; Markidis, S.; Peng, I. B.; Jordanova, V. K.; Henderson, M. G.

2017-12-01

We perform a three-dimensional (3D) global simulation of Earth's magnetosphere with kinetic reconnection physics to study the interaction between the solar wind and Earth's magnetosphere. In this global simulation with magnetohydrodynamics with embedded particle-in-cell model (MHD-EPIC), both the dayside magnetopause reconnection region and the magnetotail reconnection region are covered with a kinetic particle-in-cell code iPIC3D, which is two-way coupled with the global MHD model BATS-R-US. We will describe the dayside reconnection related phenomena, such as the lower hybrid drift instability (LHDI) and the evolution of the flux transfer events (FTEs) along the magnetopause, and compare the simulation results with observations. We will also discuss the response of the magnetotail to the southward IMF. The onset of the tail reconnection and the properties of the magnetotail flux ropes will be discussed.

Urbanization and watershed sustainability: Collaborative simulation modeling of future development states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randhir, Timothy O.; Raposa, Sarah

2014-11-01

Urbanization has a significant impact on water resources and requires a watershed-based approach to evaluate impacts of land use and urban development on watershed processes. This study uses a simulation with urban policy scenarios to model and strategize transferable recommendations for municipalities and cities to guide urban decisions using watershed ecohydrologic principles. The watershed simulation model is used to evaluation intensive (policy in existing built regions) and extensive (policy outside existing build regions) urban development scenarios with and without implementation of Best Management practices (BMPs). Water quantity and quality changes are simulated to assess effectiveness of five urban development scenarios. It is observed that optimal combination of intensive and extensive strategies can be used to sustain urban ecosystems. BMPs are found critical to reduce storm water and water quality impacts on urban development. Conservation zoning and incentives for voluntary adoption of BMPs can be used in sustaining urbanizing watersheds.

Impact of spectral nudging on the downscaling of tropical cyclones in regional climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Suk-Jin; Lee, Dong-Kyou

2016-06-01

This study investigated the simulations of three months of seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific using the Advanced Research WRF Model. In the control experiment (CTL), the TC frequency was considerably overestimated. Additionally, the tracks of some TCs tended to have larger radii of curvature and were shifted eastward. The large-scale environments of westerly monsoon flows and subtropical Pacific highs were unreasonably simulated. The overestimated frequency of TC formation was attributed to a strengthened westerly wind field in the southern quadrants of the TC center. In comparison with the experiment with the spectral nudging method, the strengthened wind speed was mainly modulated by large-scale flow that was greater than approximately 1000 km in the model domain. The spurious formation and undesirable tracks of TCs in the CTL were considerably improved by reproducing realistic large-scale atmospheric monsoon circulation with substantial adjustment between large-scale flow in the model domain and large-scale boundary forcing modified by the spectral nudging method. The realistic monsoon circulation took a vital role in simulating realistic TCs. It revealed that, in the downscaling from large-scale fields for regional climate simulations, scale interaction between model-generated regional features and forced large-scale fields should be considered, and spectral nudging is a desirable method in the downscaling method.

Improving stability of regional numerical ocean models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herzfeld, Mike

2009-02-01

An operational limited-area ocean modelling system was developed to supply forecasts of ocean state out to 3 days. This system is designed to allow non-specialist users to locate the model domain anywhere within the Australasian region with minimum user input. The model is required to produce a stable simulation every time it is invoked. This paper outlines the methodology used to ensure the model remains stable over the wide range of circumstances it might encounter. Central to the model configuration is an alternative approach to implementing open boundary conditions in a one-way nesting environment. Approximately 170 simulations were performed on limited areas in the Australasian region to assess the model stability; of these, 130 ran successfully with a static model parameterisation allowing a statistical estimate of the model’s approach toward instability to be determined. Based on this, when the model was deemed to be approaching instability a strategy of adaptive intervention in the form of constraint on velocity and elevation was invoked to maintain stability.

Regional Community Climate Simulations with variable resolution meshes in the Community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarzycki, C. M.; Gettelman, A.; Callaghan, P.

2017-12-01

Accurately predicting weather extremes such as precipitation (floods and droughts) and temperature (heat waves) requires high resolution to resolve mesoscale dynamics and topography at horizontal scales of 10-30km. Simulating such resolutions globally for climate scales (years to decades) remains computationally impractical. Simulating only a small region of the planet is more tractable at these scales for climate applications. This work describes global simulations using variable-resolution static meshes with multiple dynamical cores that target the continental United States using developmental versions of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). CESM2 is tested in idealized, aquaplanet and full physics configurations to evaluate variable mesh simulations against uniform high and uniform low resolution simulations at resolutions down to 15km. Different physical parameterization suites are also evaluated to gauge their sensitivity to resolution. Idealized variable-resolution mesh cases compare well to high resolution tests. More recent versions of the atmospheric physics, including cloud schemes for CESM2, are more stable with respect to changes in horizontal resolution. Most of the sensitivity is due to sensitivity to timestep and interactions between deep convection and large scale condensation, expected from the closure methods. The resulting full physics model produces a comparable climate to the global low resolution mesh and similar high frequency statistics in the high resolution region. Some biases are reduced (orographic precipitation in the western United States), but biases do not necessarily go away at high resolution (e.g. summertime JJA surface Temp). The simulations are able to reproduce uniform high resolution results, making them an effective tool for regional climate studies and are available in CESM2.

Development of ALARO-Climate regional climate model for a very high resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skalak, Petr; Farda, Ales; Brozkova, Radmila; Masek, Jan

2014-05-01

ALARO-Climate is a new regional climate model (RCM) derived from the ALADIN LAM model family. It is based on the numerical weather prediction model ALARO and developed at the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. The model is expected to able to work in the so called "grey zone" physics (horizontal resolution of 4 - 7 km) and at the same time retain its ability to be operated in resolutions in between 20 and 50 km, which are typical for contemporary generation of regional climate models. Here we present the main results of the RCM ALARO-Climate model simulations in 25 and 6.25 km resolutions on the longer time-scale (1961-1990). The model was driven by the ERA-40 re-analyses and run on the integration domain of ~ 2500 x 2500 km size covering the central Europe. The simulated model climate was compared with the gridded observation of air temperature (mean, maximum, minimum) and precipitation from the E-OBS version dataset 8. Other simulated parameters (e.g., cloudiness, radiation or components of water cycle) were compared to the ERA-40 re-analyses. The validation of the first ERA-40 simulation in both, 25 km and 6.25 km resolutions, revealed significant cold biases in all seasons and overestimation of precipitation in the selected Central Europe target area (0° - 30° eastern longitude ; 40° - 60° northern latitude). The differences between these simulations were small and thus revealed a robustness of the model's physical parameterization on the resolution change. The series of 25 km resolution simulations with several model adaptations was carried out to study their effect on the simulated properties of climate variables and thus possibly identify a source of major errors in the simulated climate. The current investigation suggests the main reason for biases is related to the model physic. Acknowledgements: This study was performed within the frame of projects ALARO (project P209/11/2405 sponsored by the Czech Science Foundation) and CzechGlobe Centre (CZ.1.05/1.1.00/02.0073). The partial support was also provided under the projects P209-11-0956 of the Czech Science Foundation and CZ.1.07/2.4.00/31.0056 (Operational Programme of Education for Competitiveness of Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic).

Biomechanically based simulation of brain deformations for intraoperative image correction: coupling of elastic and fluid models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagemann, Alexander; Rohr, Karl; Stiehl, H. Siegfried

2000-06-01

In order to improve the accuracy of image-guided neurosurgery, different biomechanical models have been developed to correct preoperative images w.r.t. intraoperative changes like brain shift or tumor resection. All existing biomechanical models simulate different anatomical structures by using either appropriate boundary conditions or by spatially varying material parameter values, while assuming the same physical model for all anatomical structures. In general, this leads to physically implausible results, especially in the case of adjacent elastic and fluid structures. Therefore, we propose a new approach which allows to couple different physical models. In our case, we simulate rigid, elastic, and fluid regions by using the appropriate physical description for each material, namely either the Navier equation or the Stokes equation. To solve the resulting differential equations, we derive a linear matrix system for each region by applying the finite element method (FEM). Thereafter, the linear matrix systems are linked together, ending up with one overall linear matrix system. Our approach has been tested using synthetic as well as tomographic images. It turns out from experiments, that the integrated treatment of rigid, elastic, and fluid regions significantly improves the prediction results in comparison to a pure linear elastic model.

Modeling power flow in the induction cavity with a two dimensional circuit simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Fan; Zou, Wenkang; Gong, Boyi; Jiang, Jihao; Chen, Lin; Wang, Meng; Xie, Weiping

2017-02-01

We have proposed a two dimensional (2D) circuit model of induction cavity. The oil elbow and azimuthal transmission line are modeled with one dimensional transmission line elements, while 2D transmission line elements are employed to represent the regions inward the azimuthal transmission line. The voltage waveforms obtained by 2D circuit simulation and transient electromagnetic simulation are compared, which shows satisfactory agreement. The influence of impedance mismatch on the power flow condition in the induction cavity is investigated with this 2D circuit model. The simulation results indicate that the peak value of load voltage approaches the maximum if the azimuthal transmission line roughly matches the pulse forming section. The amplitude of output transmission line voltage is strongly influenced by its impedance, but the peak value of load voltage is insensitive to the actual output transmission line impedance. When the load impedance raises, the voltage across the dummy load increases, and the pulse duration at the oil elbow inlet and insulator stack regions also slightly increase.

A mathematical model of transport and regional uptake of radioactive gases in the human respiratory system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baek, Inseok

The purpose of this research is to describe the development of a mathematical model of diffusion, convection, and lateral transport into the airway wall and alveolar absorption for inhaled radioactive gases in the human conductive and respiratory airways based on a Single Path Trumpet-bell model (SPM). Mathematical simulation models have been used successfully to study transport, absorption into the blood through alveoli, and lung tissue uptake of soluble and nonreactive radioactive gases. Results from such simulations also show clearly that inhaled radioactive gases are absorbed into the lung tissues as well as into the blood through the alveoli. In contrast to previous reports in the literature, the present study found that blood uptake through alveoli is much greater than that calculated previously. Regional depositions in the lung from inhaled radioactive gases are presented as the result of this simulation. The committed effective dose to lung tissue due to submersion in radioactive clouds has been newly defined using the results of this simulation.

Electro-thermo-optical simulation of vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smagley, Vladimir Anatolievich

Three-dimensional electro-thermal simulator based on the double-layer approximation for the active region was coupled to optical gain and optical field numerical simulators to provide a self-consistent steady-state solution of VCSEL current-voltage and current-output power characteristics. Methodology of VCSEL modeling had been established and applied to model a standard 850-nm VCSEL based on GaAs-active region and a novel intracavity-contacted 400-nm GaN-based VCSEL. Results of GaAs VCSEL simulation were in a good agreement with experiment. Correlations between current injection and radiative mode profiles have been observed. Physical sub-models of transport, optical gain and cavity optical field were developed. Carrier transport through DBRs was studied. Problem of optical fields in VCSEL cavity was treated numerically by the effective frequency method. All the sub-models were connected through spatially inhomogeneous rate equation system. It was shown that the conventional uncoupled analysis of every separate physical phenomenon would be insufficient to describe VCSEL operation.

Denitrogenation model for vacuum tank degasser

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobinath, R.; Vetrivel Murugan, R.

2018-02-01

Nitrogen in steel is both beneficial and detrimental depending on grade of steel and its application. To get desired low nitrogen during vacuum degassing process, VD parameters namely vacuum level, argon flow rate and holding time has to optimized depending upon initial nitrogen level. In this work a mathematical model to simulate nitrogen removal in tank degasser is developed and how various VD parameters affects nitrogen removal is studied. Ladle water model studies with bottom purging have shown two distinct flow regions, namely the plume region and the outside plume region. The two regions are treated as two separate reactors exchanging mass between them and complete mixing is assumed in both the reactors. In the plume region, transfer of nitrogen to single bubble is simulated. At the gas-liquid metal interface (bubble interface) thermodynamic equilibrium is assumed and the transfer of nitrogen from bulk liquid metal in the plume region to the gas-metal interface is obtained using mass transport principles. The model predicts variation of Nitrogen content in both the reactors with time. The model is validated with industrial process and the predicted results were found to have fair agreement with the measured results.

Vertical transport by convective clouds: Comparisons of three modeling approaches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pickering, Kenneth E.; Thompson, Anne M.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Rood, Richard B.; Mcnamara, Donna P.; Molod, Andrea M.

1995-01-01

A preliminary comparison of the GEOS-1 (Goddard Earth Observing System) data assimilation system convective cloud mass fluxes with fluxes from a cloud-resolving model (the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model, GCE) is reported. A squall line case study (10-11 June 1985 Oklahoma PRESTORM episode) is the basis of the comparison. Regional (central U. S.) monthly total convective mass flux for June 1985 from GEOS-1 compares favorably with estimates from a statistical/dynamical approach using GCE simulations and satellite-derived cloud observations. The GEOS-1 convective mass fluxes produce reasonable estimates of monthly-averaged regional convective venting of CO from the boundary layer at least in an urban-influenced continental region, suggesting that they can be used in tracer transport simulations.

Numerical simulation of the structure of the high-latitude ionospheric F region during meridional HF propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreev, M. Yu.; Mingaleva, G. I.; Mingalev, V. S.

2007-08-01

A previously developed model of the high-latitude ionosphere is used to calculate the distribution of the ionospheric parameters in the polar region. A specific method for specifying input parameters of the mathematical model, using the experimental data obtained by the method of satellite radio tomography, is used in this case. The spatial distributions of the ionospheric parameters characterized by a complex inhomogeneous structure in the high-latitude region, calculated with the help of the mathematical model, are used to simulate the HF propagation along the meridionally oriented radio paths extending from middle to high latitudes. The method for improving the HF communication between a midlatitude transmitter and a polar-cap receiver is proposed.

Comparing crop growth and carbon budgets simulated across AmeriFlux agricultural sites using the community land model (CLM)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Improving process-based crop models is needed to achieve high fidelity forecasts of regional energy, water, and carbon exchange. However, most state-of-the-art Land Surface Models (LSMs) assessed in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison project (CMIP5) simulated crops as simple C3 or...

Convective Systems Over the Japan Sea: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Yoshizaki, Masanori; Shie, Chung-Lin; Kato, Teryuki

2002-01-01

Wintertime observations of MCSs (Mesoscale Convective Systems) over the Sea of Japan - 2001 (WMO-01) were collected from January 12 to February 1, 2001. One of the major objectives is to better understand and forecast snow systems and accompanying disturbances and the associated key physical processes involved in the formation and development of these disturbances. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during WMO-01 provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convective storms and air pattern changes associated with winter storms over the Sea of Japan region. WMO-01 also provided estimates of the apparent heat source (Q1) and apparent moisture sink (Q2). The vertical integrals of Q1 and Q2 are equal to the surface precipitation rates. The horizontal and vertical adjective components of Q1 and Q2 can be used as large-scale forcing for the Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a CRM (typically run with a 1-km grid size). The GCE model has sophisticated microphysics and allows explicit interactions between clouds, radiation, and surface processes. It will be used to understand and quantify precipitation processes associated with wintertime convective systems over the Sea of Japan (using data collected during the WMO-01). This is the first cloud-resolving model used to simulate precipitation processes in this particular region. The GCE model-simulated WMO-01 results will also be compared to other GCE model-simulated weather systems that developed during other field campaigns (i.e., South China Sea, west Pacific warm pool region, eastern Atlantic region and central USA).

Dynamic downscaling over western Himalayas: Impact of cloud microphysics schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, Sarita; Kar, Sarat C.; Bhatla, R.

2018-03-01

Due to lack of observation data in the region of inhomogeneous terrain of the Himalayas, detailed climate of Himalayas is still unknown. Global reanalysis data are too coarse to represent the hydroclimate over the region with sharp orography gradient in the western Himalayas. In the present study, dynamic downscaling of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis-Interim (ERA-I) dataset over the western Himalayas using high-resolution Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model has been carried out. Sensitivity studies have also been carried out using convection and microphysics parameterization schemes. The WRF model simulations have been compared against ERA-I and available station observations. Analysis of the results suggests that the WRF model has simulated the hydroclimate of the region well. It is found that in the simulations that the impact of convection scheme is more during summer months than in winter. Examination of simulated results using various microphysics schemes reveal that the WRF single-moment class-6 (WSM6) scheme simulates more precipitation on the upwind region of the high mountain than that in the Morrison and Thompson schemes during the winter period. Vertical distribution of various hydrometeors shows that there are large differences in mixing ratios of ice, snow and graupel in the simulations with different microphysics schemes. The ice mixing ratio in Morrison scheme is more than WSM6 above 400 hPa. The Thompson scheme favors formation of more snow than WSM6 or Morrison schemes while the Morrison scheme has more graupel formation than other schemes.

North Pacific Mesoscale Coupled Air-Ocean Simulations Compared with Observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koracin, Darko; Cerovecki, Ivana; Vellore, Ramesh

2013-04-11

Executive summary The main objective of the study was to investigate atmospheric and ocean interaction processes in the western Pacific and, in particular, effects of significant ocean heat loss in the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension regions on the lower and upper atmosphere. It is yet to be determined how significant are these processes are on climate scales. The understanding of these processes led us also to development of the methodology of coupling the Weather and Research Forecasting model with the Parallel Ocean Program model for western Pacific regional weather and climate simulations. We tested NCAR-developed research software Coupler 7 formore » coupling of the WRF and POP models and assessed its usability for regional-scale applications. We completed test simulations using the Coupler 7 framework, but implemented a standard WRF model code with options for both one- and two-way mode coupling. This type of coupling will allow us to seamlessly incorporate new WRF updates and versions in the future. We also performed a long-term WRF simulation (15 years) covering the entire North Pacific as well as high-resolution simulations of a case study which included extreme ocean heat losses in the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension regions. Since the extreme ocean heat loss occurs during winter cold air outbreaks (CAO), we simulated and analyzed a case study of a severe CAO event in January 2000 in detail. We found that the ocean heat loss induced by CAOs is amplified by additional advection from mesocyclones forming on the southern part of the Japan Sea. Large scale synoptic patterns with anomalously strong anticyclone over Siberia and Mongolia, deep Aleutian Low, and the Pacific subtropical ridge are a crucial setup for the CAO. It was found that the onset of the CAO is related to the breaking of atmospheric Rossby waves and vertical transport of vorticity that facilitates meridional advection. The study also indicates that intrinsic parameterization of the surface fluxes within the WRF model needs more evaluation and analysis.« less

Using multiple climate projections for assessing hydrological response to climate change in the Thukela River Basin, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, L. Phil; Andersson, Lotta; Horan, Mark; Kunz, Richard; Lumsden, Trevor; Schulze, Roland; Warburton, Michele; Wilk, Julie; Yang, Wei

This study used climate change projections from different regional approaches to assess hydrological effects on the Thukela River Basin in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Projecting impacts of future climate change onto hydrological systems can be undertaken in different ways and a variety of effects can be expected. Although simulation results from global climate models (GCMs) are typically used to project future climate, different outcomes from these projections may be obtained depending on the GCMs themselves and how they are applied, including different ways of downscaling from global to regional scales. Projections of climate change from different downscaling methods, different global climate models and different future emissions scenarios were used as input to simulations in a hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on hydrology. A total of 10 hydrological change simulations were made, resulting in a matrix of hydrological response results. This matrix included results from dynamically downscaled climate change projections from the same regional climate model (RCM) using an ensemble of three GCMs and three global emissions scenarios, and from statistically downscaled projections using results from five GCMs with the same emissions scenario. Although the matrix of results does not provide complete and consistent coverage of potential uncertainties from the different methods, some robust results were identified. In some regards, the results were in agreement and consistent for the different simulations. For others, particularly rainfall, the simulations showed divergence. For example, all of the statistically downscaled simulations showed an annual increase in precipitation and corresponding increase in river runoff, while the RCM downscaled simulations showed both increases and decreases in runoff. According to the two projections that best represent runoff for the observed climate, increased runoff would generally be expected for this basin in the future. Dealing with such variability in results is not atypical for assessing climate change impacts in Africa and practitioners are faced with how to interpret them. This work highlights the need for additional, well-coordinated regional climate downscaling for the region to further define the range of uncertainties involved.

Impact of the Gulf of California SST on simulating precipitation and crop productivity in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S.; Kim, J.; Prasad, A. K.; Stack, D. H.; El-Askary, H. M.; Kafatos, M.

2012-12-01

Like other ecosystems, agricultural productivity is substantially affected by climate factors. Therefore, accurate climatic data (i.e. precipitation, temperature, and radiation) is crucial to simulating crop yields. In order to understand and anticipate climate change and its impacts on agricultural productivity in the Southwestern United States, the WRF regional climate model (RCM) and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) were employed for simulating crop production. 19 years of WRF RCM output show that there is a strong dry bias during the warm season, especially in Arizona. Consequently, the APSIM crop model indicates very low crop yields in this region. We suspect that the coarse resolution of reanalysis data could not resolve the relatively warm Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Gulf of California (GC), causing the SST to be up to 10 degrees lower than the climatology. In the Southwestern United States, a significant amount of precipitation is associated with North American Monsoon (NAM). During the monsoon season, the low-level moisture is advected to the Southwestern United States via the GC, which is known to be the dominant moisture source. Thus, high-resolution SST data in the GC is required for RCM simulations to accurately represent a reasonable amount of precipitation in the region, allowing reliable evaluation of the impacts on regional ecosystems.and evaluate impacts on regional ecosystems. To evaluate the influence of SST on agriculture in the Southwestern U.S., two sets of numerical simulations were constructed: a control, using unresolved SST of GC, and daily updated SST data from the MODIS satellite sensor. The meteorological drivers from each of the 6 year RCM runs were provided as input to the APSIM model to determine the crop yield. Analyses of the simulated crop production, and the interannual variation of the meteorological drivers, demonstrate the influence of SST on crop yields in the Southwestern United States.

Geological Modeling and Fluid Flow Simulation of Acid Gas Storage, Nugget Sandstone, Moxa Arch, Wyoming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, S.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, X.; Du, C.

2009-12-01

The Moxa Arch Anticline is a regional-scale northwest-trending uplift in western Wyoming where geological storage of acid gases (CO2, CH4, N2, H2S, He) from ExxonMobile's Shute Creek Gas Plant is under consideration. The Nugget Sandstone, a deep saline aquifer at depths exceeding 17,170 ft, is a candidate formation for acid gas storage. As part of a larger goal of determining site suitability, this study builds three-dimensional local to regional scale geological and fluid flow models for the Nugget Sandstone, its caprock (Twin Creek Limestone), and an underlying aquifer (Ankareh Sandstone), or together, the ``Nugget Suite''. For an area of 3000 square miles, geological and engineering data were assembled, screened for accuracy, and digitized, covering an average formation thickness of ~1700 feet. The data include 900 public-domain well logs (SP, Gamma Ray, Neutron Porosity, Density, Sonic, shallow and deep Resistivity, Lithology, Deviated well logs), 784 feet of core measurements (porosity and permeability), 4 regional geological cross sections, and 3 isopach maps. Data were interpreted and correlated for geological formations and facies, the later categorized using both Neural Network and Gaussian Hierarchical Clustering algorithms. Well log porosities were calibrated with core measurements, those of permeability estimated using formation-specific porosity-permeability transforms. Using conditional geostatistical simulations (first indicator simulation of facies, then sequential Gaussian simulation of facies-specific porosity), data were integrated at the regional-scale to create a geological model from which a local-scale simulation model surrounding the Shute Creek injection site was extracted. Based on this model, full compositional multiphase flow simulations were conducted with which we explore (1) an appropriate grid resolution for accurate acid gas predictions (pressure, saturation, and mass balance); (2) sensitivity of key geological and engineering variables on model predictions. Results suggest that (1) a horizontal and vertical resolution of 1/75 and 1/5~1/2 porosity correlation length is needed, respectively, to accurately capture the flow physics and mass balance. (2) the most sensitive variables that have first order impact on model predictions (i.e., regional storage, local displacement efficiency) are boundary condition, vertical permeability, relative permeability hysteresis, and injection rate. However, all else being equal, formation brine salinity has the most important effects on the concentrations of all dissolved components. Future work will define and simulate reactions of acid gases with formation brines and rocks which are currently under laboratory investigations.

Validation of newly designed regional earth system model (RegESM) for Mediterranean Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turuncoglu, Ufuk Utku; Sannino, Gianmaria

2017-05-01

We present a validation analysis of a regional earth system model system (RegESM) for the Mediterranean Basin. The used configuration of the modeling system includes two active components: a regional climate model (RegCM4) and an ocean modeling system (ROMS). To assess the performance of the coupled modeling system in representing the climate of the basin, the results of the coupled simulation (C50E) are compared to the results obtained by a standalone atmospheric simulation (R50E) as well as several observation datasets. Although there is persistent cold bias in fall and winter, which is also seen in previous studies, the model reproduces the inter-annual variability and the seasonal cycles of sea surface temperature (SST) in a general good agreement with the available observations. The analysis of the near-surface wind distribution and the main circulation of the sea indicates that the coupled model can reproduce the main characteristics of the Mediterranean Sea surface and intermediate layer circulation as well as the seasonal variability of wind speed and direction when it is compared with the available observational datasets. The results also reveal that the simulated near-surface wind speed and direction have poor performance in the Gulf of Lion and surrounding regions that also affects the large positive SST bias in the region due to the insufficient horizontal resolution of the atmospheric component of the coupled modeling system. The simulated seasonal climatologies of the surface heat flux components are also consistent with the CORE.2 and NOCS datasets along with the overestimation in net long-wave radiation and latent heat flux (or evaporation, E), although a large observational uncertainty is found in these variables. Also, the coupled model tends to improve the latent heat flux by providing a better representation of the air-sea interaction as well as total heat flux budget over the sea. Both models are also able to reproduce the temporal evolution of the inter-annual anomaly of surface air temperature and precipitation (P) over defined sub-regions. The Mediterranean water budget (E, P and E-P) estimates also show that the coupled model has high skill in the representation of water budget of the Mediterranean Sea. To conclude, the coupled model reproduces climatological land surface fields and the sea surface variables in the range of observation uncertainty and allow studying air-sea interaction and main regional climate characteristics of the basin.

Assessment of the performance of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over the Himalayan region during present climate: part I

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghimire, S.; Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.

2018-04-01

Analysis of regional climate simulations to evaluate the ability of 11 Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment in South Asia experiments (CORDEX-South Asia) along with their ensemble to produce precipitation from June to September (JJAS) over the Himalayan region have been carried out. These suite of 11 combinations come from 6 regional climate models (RCMs) driven with 10 initial and boundary conditions from different global climate models and are collectively referred here as 11 CORDEX South Asia experiments. All the RCMs use a similar domain and are having similar spatial resolution of 0.44° ( 50 km). The set of experiments are considered to study precipitation sensitivity associated with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) over the study region. This effort is made as ISM plays a vital role in summertime precipitation over the Himalayan region which acts as driver for the sustenance of habitat, population, crop, glacier, hydrology etc. In addition, so far the summer monsoon precipitation climatology over the Himalayan region has not been studied with the help of CORDEX data. Thus this study is initiated to evaluate the ability of the experiments and their ensemble in reproducing the characteristics of summer monsoon precipitation over Himalayan region, for the present climate (1970-2005). The precipitation climatology, annual precipitation cycles and interannual variabilities from each simulation have been assessed against the gridded observational dataset: Asian Precipitation-Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources for the given time period. Further, after the selection of the better performing experiment the frequency distribution of precipitation was also studied. In this study, an approach has also been made to study the degree of agreement among individual experiments as a way to quantify the uncertainty among them. The experiments though show a wide variation among themselves and individually over time and space in simulating precipitation distribution over the study region, but noticeably along the foothills of the Himalayas all the simulations show dry precipitation bias against the corresponding observation. In addition, as we move towards higher elevation regions these experiments in general show wet bias. The experiment driven by EC-EARTH global climate model and downscaled using Rossby Center regional Atmospheric model version 4 developed by Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI-RCA4) simulate precipitation closely in correspondence with the observation. The ensemble outperforms the result of individual experiments. Correspondingly, different kinds of statistical analysis like spatial and temporal correlation, Taylor diagram, frequency distribution and scatter plot have been performed to compare the model output with observation and to explain the associated resemblance, robustness and dynamics statistically. Through the bias and ensemble spread analysis, an estimation of the uncertainty of the model fields and the degree of agreement among them has also been carried out in this study. Overview of the study suggests that these experiments facilitate precipitation evolution and structure over the Himalayan region with certain degree of uncertainty.

Development of RF plasma simulations of in-reactor tests of small models of the nuclear light bulb fuel region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roman, W. C.; Jaminet, J. F.

1972-01-01

Experiments were conducted to develop test configurations and technology necessary to simulate the thermal environment and fuel region expected to exist in in-reactor tests of small models of nuclear light bulb configurations. Particular emphasis was directed at rf plasma tests of approximately full-scale models of an in-reactor cell suitable for tests in Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory's Nuclear Furnace. The in-reactor tests will involve vortex-stabilized fissioning uranium plasmas of approximately 200-kW power, 500-atm pressure and equivalent black-body radiating temperatures between 3220 and 3510 K.

Impacts of spectral nudging on the simulated surface air temperature in summer compared with the selection of shortwave radiation and land surface model physics parameterization in a high-resolution regional atmospheric model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jun; Hwang, Seung-On

2017-11-01

The impact of a spectral nudging technique for the dynamical downscaling of the summer surface air temperature in a high-resolution regional atmospheric model is assessed. The performance of this technique is measured by comparing 16 analysis-driven simulation sets of physical parameterization combinations of two shortwave radiation and four land surface model schemes of the model, which are known to be crucial for the simulation of the surface air temperature. It is found that the application of spectral nudging to the outermost domain has a greater impact on the regional climate than any combination of shortwave radiation and land surface model physics schemes. The optimal choice of two model physics parameterizations is helpful for obtaining more realistic spatiotemporal distributions of land surface variables such as the surface air temperature, precipitation, and surface fluxes. However, employing spectral nudging adds more value to the results; the improvement is greater than using sophisticated shortwave radiation and land surface model physical parameterizations. This result indicates that spectral nudging applied to the outermost domain provides a more accurate lateral boundary condition to the innermost domain when forced by analysis data by securing the consistency with large-scale forcing over a regional domain. This consequently indirectly helps two physical parameterizations to produce small-scale features closer to the observed values, leading to a better representation of the surface air temperature in a high-resolution downscaled climate.

Simulation of 1986 South China Sea Monsoon with a Regional Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W. -K.; Lau, W. K.-M.; Jia, Y.; Juang, H.; Wetzel, P.; Qian, J.; Chen, C.

1999-01-01

A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation System (RELACS) project is being developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model with improved physical processes and in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water/energy cycles in the IndoChina/South China Sea (SCS) region. The Penn State/NCAR MM5 atmospheric modeling system, a state of the art atmospheric numerical model designed to simulate regional weather and climate, has been successfully coupled to the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. The original MM5 model (without PLACE) includes the option for either a simple slab soil model or a five-layer soil model (MRF) in which the soil moisture availability evolves over time. However, the MM5 soil models do not include the effects of vegetation, and thus important physical processes such as evapotranspiration and interception are precluded. The PLACE model incorporates vegetation type and has been shown in international comparisons to accurately predict evapotranspiration and runoff over a wide variety of land surfaces. The coupling of MM5 and PLACE creates a numerical modeling system with the potential to more realistically simulate atmosphere and land surface processes including land-sea interaction, regional circulations such as monsoons, and flash flood events. In addition, the Penn State/NCAR MM5 atmospheric modeling system has been: (1) coupled to the Goddard Ice Microphysical scheme; (2) coupled to a turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) scheme; (3) modified to ensure cloud budget balance; and (4) incorporated initialization with the Goddard EOS data sets at NASA/Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres. The improved MM5 with two nested domains (60 and 20 km horizontal resolution) was used to simulate convective activity over IndoChina and the South China Sea, during the monsoon season, from May 6 to May 20, 1986. The model results captured several dominant observed features, such as twin cyclones, a depression system over the Bay of Bengal, strong south-westerly winds over IndoChina before and during the on-set of convection over the SCS, and a vortex over the SCS. Two additional MM5 runs with different land process models, Blackadar and MRF, were performed, and their results are compared to the run with PLACE. The preliminary results indicate that the MM5 results using PLACE and Blackadar are in very good agreement, but the results using MRF do not contain the south-westerly wind over IndoChina prior to the on-set of convection over the SCS.

A surrogate-based sensitivity quantification and Bayesian inversion of a regional groundwater flow model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Mingjie; Izady, Azizallah; Abdalla, Osman A.; Amerjeed, Mansoor

2018-02-01

Bayesian inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provides an explicit framework for stochastic calibration of hydrogeologic models accounting for uncertainties; however, the MCMC sampling entails a large number of model calls, and could easily become computationally unwieldy if the high-fidelity hydrogeologic model simulation is time consuming. This study proposes a surrogate-based Bayesian framework to address this notorious issue, and illustrates the methodology by inverse modeling a regional MODFLOW model. The high-fidelity groundwater model is approximated by a fast statistical model using Bagging Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (BMARS) algorithm, and hence the MCMC sampling can be efficiently performed. In this study, the MODFLOW model is developed to simulate the groundwater flow in an arid region of Oman consisting of mountain-coast aquifers, and used to run representative simulations to generate training dataset for BMARS model construction. A BMARS-based Sobol' method is also employed to efficiently calculate input parameter sensitivities, which are used to evaluate and rank their importance for the groundwater flow model system. According to sensitivity analysis, insensitive parameters are screened out of Bayesian inversion of the MODFLOW model, further saving computing efforts. The posterior probability distribution of input parameters is efficiently inferred from the prescribed prior distribution using observed head data, demonstrating that the presented BMARS-based Bayesian framework is an efficient tool to reduce parameter uncertainties of a groundwater system.

Three-Dimensional MHD Modeling of The Solar Corona and Solar Wind: Comparison with The Wang-Sheeley Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Usmanov, A. V.; Goldstein, M. L.

2003-01-01

We present simulation results from a tilted-dipole steady-state MHD model of the solar corona and solar wind and compare the output from our model with the Wang-Sheeley model which relates the divergence rate of magnetic flux tubes near the Sun (inferred from solar magnetograms) to the solar wind speed observed near Earth and at Ulysses. The boundary conditions in our model specified at the coronal base and our simulation region extends out to 10 AU. We assumed that a flux of Alfven waves with amplitude of 35 km per second emanates from the Sun and provides additional heating and acceleration for the coronal outflow in the open field regions. The waves are treated in the WKB approximation. The incorporation of wave acceleration allows us to reproduce the fast wind measurements obtained by Ulysses, while preserving reasonable agreement with plasma densities typically found at the coronal base. We find that our simulation results agree well with Wang and Sheeley's empirical model.

Idealized Simulations of the Effects of Amazon Convection and Baroclinic Waves on the South Atlantic Convergence Zone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ferreira, Rosana Nieto; Suarez, Max J.; Nigam, Sumant; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) is a NW-SE oriented, stationary region of enhanced convergence and convection that extends southeastward from the ITCZ convection anchored over the Amazon region. On daily satellite images each SACZ episode is seen as a progression of one or several midlatitude cold fronts that intrude into the subtropics and tropics, becoming stationary over southeastern Brazil for a few days. Previous studies have shown that while Amazon convection plays a fundamental role in the formation of the SACZ, Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the Andes Mountains play a relatively minor role in the strength and location of the SACZ. The role of interactions between Amazon convection and midlatitude baroclinic waves in establishing the origin, position, and maintenance of the SACZ is studied here using idealized dry, multilayer global model simulations that do not include the effects of topography. The model simulations produce SACZ-like regions of low-level convergence in the presence of Amazon convection embedded in a mean-flow that contains propagating baroclinic waves. The results of these simulations indicate that Amazon convection plays two fundamental roles in the formation and location of the SACZ. First, it produces a NW-SE oriented region of low-level convergence to the SE of Amazon convection. Second, it produces a storm-track region and accompanying stronger midlatitude baroclinic waves in the region of the SACZ. It is suggested that in the presence of moist effects, the 'seedling' SACZ regions produced in these simulations can be enhanced to produce the observed SACZ.

Improved global simulation of groundwater-ecosystem interactions via tight coupling of a dynamic global ecosystem model and a global hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braakhekke, Maarten; Rebel, Karin; Dekker, Stefan; Smith, Benjamin; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; van Kampenhout, Leo; Wassen, Martin

2017-04-01

In up to 30% of the global land surface ecosystems are potentially influenced by the presence of a shallow groundwater table. In these regions upward water flux by capillary rise increases soil moisture availability in the root zone, which has a strong effect on evapotranspiration, vegetation dynamics, and fluxes of carbon and nitrogen. Most global hydrological models and several land surface models simulate groundwater table dynamics and their effects on land surface processes. However, these models typically have relatively simplistic representation of vegetation and do not consider changes in vegetation type and structure. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), describe land surface from an ecological perspective, combining detailed description of vegetation dynamics and structure, and biogeochemical processes and are thus more appropriate to simulate the ecological and biogeochemical effects of groundwater interactions. However, currently virtually all DGVMs ignore these effects, assuming that water tables are too deep to affect soil moisture in the root zone. We have implemented a tight coupling between the dynamic global ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS and the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which explicitly simulates groundwater dynamics. This coupled model allows us to explicitly account for groundwater effects on terrestrial ecosystem processes at global scale. Results of global simulations indicate that groundwater strongly influences fluxes of water, carbon and nitrogen, in many regions, adding up to a considerable effect at the global scale.

The SCEC Broadband Platform: Open-Source Software for Strong Ground Motion Simulation and Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, F.; Goulet, C. A.; Maechling, P. J.; Callaghan, S.; Jordan, T. H.

2016-12-01

The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Broadband Platform (BBP) is a carefully integrated collection of open-source scientific software programs that can simulate broadband (0-100 Hz) ground motions for earthquakes at regional scales. The BBP can run earthquake rupture and wave propagation modeling software to simulate ground motions for well-observed historical earthquakes and to quantify how well the simulated broadband seismograms match the observed seismograms. The BBP can also run simulations for hypothetical earthquakes. In this case, users input an earthquake location and magnitude description, a list of station locations, and a 1D velocity model for the region of interest, and the BBP software then calculates ground motions for the specified stations. The BBP scientific software modules implement kinematic rupture generation, low- and high-frequency seismogram synthesis using wave propagation through 1D layered velocity structures, several ground motion intensity measure calculations, and various ground motion goodness-of-fit tools. These modules are integrated into a software system that provides user-defined, repeatable, calculation of ground-motion seismograms, using multiple alternative ground motion simulation methods, and software utilities to generate tables, plots, and maps. The BBP has been developed over the last five years in a collaborative project involving geoscientists, earthquake engineers, graduate students, and SCEC scientific software developers. The SCEC BBP software released in 2016 can be compiled and run on recent Linux and Mac OS X systems with GNU compilers. It includes five simulation methods, seven simulation regions covering California, Japan, and Eastern North America, and the ability to compare simulation results against empirical ground motion models (aka GMPEs). The latest version includes updated ground motion simulation methods, a suite of new validation metrics and a simplified command line user interface.

Towards a unified Global Weather-Climate Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, S. J.

2016-12-01

The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been developing a unified regional-global modeling system with variable resolution capabilities that can be used for severe weather predictions and kilometer scale regional climate simulations within a unified global modeling system. The foundation of this flexible modeling system is the nonhydrostatic Finite-Volume Dynamical Core on the Cubed-Sphere (FV3). A unique aspect of FV3 is that it is "vertically Lagrangian" (Lin 2004), essentially reducing the equation sets to two dimensions, and is the single most important reason why FV3 outperforms other non-hydrostatic cores. Owning to its accuracy, adaptability, and computational efficiency, the FV3 has been selected as the "engine" for NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). We have built into the modeling system a stretched grid, a two-way regional-global nested grid, and an optimal combination of the stretched and two-way nests capability, making kilometer-scale regional simulations within a global modeling system feasible. Our main scientific goal is to enable simulations of high impact weather phenomena (such as tornadoes, thunderstorms, category-5 hurricanes) within an IPCC-class climate modeling system previously regarded as impossible. In this presentation I will demonstrate that, with the FV3, it is computationally feasible to simulate not only super-cell thunderstorms, but also the subsequent genesis of tornado-like vortices using a global model that was originally designed for climate simulations. The development and tuning strategy between traditional weather and climate models are fundamentally different due to different metrics. We were able to adapt and use traditional "climate" metrics or standards, such as angular momentum conservation, energy conservation, and flux balance at top of the atmosphere, and gain insight into problems of traditional weather prediction model for medium-range weather prediction, and vice versa. Therefore, the unification in weather and climate models can happen not just at the algorithm or parameterization level, but also in the metric and tuning strategy used for both applications, and ultimately, with benefits to both weather and climate applications.

Impact of the model resolution on the simulation of elevation-dependent warming in the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayas, Greater Alpine Region, and Rocky mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palazzi, Elisa; Mortarini, Luca; Terzago, Silvia; von Hardenberg, Jost

2017-04-01

The enhancement of warming rates with elevation, the so-called elevation-dependent warming (EDW), is one of the clearest regional expressions of global warming. Real sentinels of climate and environmental changes, mountains have experienced more rapid and intense warming rates in the recent decades, leading to serious impacts on mountain ecosystems and downstream societies, some of which are already occurring. In this study we use the historical and scenario simulations of one state-of-the-art global climate model, the EC-Earth GCM, run at five different spatial resolutions, from ˜125 km to ˜16 km, to explore the existence, characteristics and driving mechanisms of EDW in three different mountain regions of the world - the Colorado Rocky Mountains, the Greater Alpine Region and the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayas. The aim of this study is twofold: to investigate the impact (if any) of increasing model resolution on the representation of EDW and to highlight possible differences in this phenomenon and its driving mechanisms in different mountain regions of the northern hemisphere. Preliminary results indicate that autumn (September to November) is the only season in which EDW is simulated by the model in both the maximum and the minimum temperature, in all three regions and across all model resolutions. Regional differences emerge in the other seasons: for example, the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayas is the only area in which EDW is detected in winter. As for the analysis of EDW drivers, we identify albedo and downward longwave radiation as being the most important variables for EDW, in all three areas considered and in all seasons. Further these results are robust to changes in model resolution, even though a clearer signal is associated with finer resolutions. We finally use the highest resolution EC-Earth simulations available (˜16 km) to identify what areas, within the three considered mountain ranges, are expected to undergo a significant reduction of snow or ice cover in the period 2039-2068 with respect to the period 1979-2008, using the EC-Earth projections under the RCP 8.5 concentration scenario.

Evaluation of CMIP5 and CORDEX Derived Wind Wave Climate in Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhury, P.; Behera, M. R.

2017-12-01

Climate change impact on surface ocean wave parameters need robust assessment for effective coastal zone management. Climate model skill to simulate dynamical General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional Circulation Models (RCMs) forced wind-wave climate over northern Indian Ocean is assessed in the present work. The historical dynamical wave climate is simulated using surface winds derived from four GCMs and four RCMs, participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) and Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-South Asia), respectively, and their ensemble are used to force a spectral wave model. The surface winds derived from GCMs and RCMs are corrected for bias, using Quantile Mapping method, before being forced to the spectral wave model. The climatological properties of wave parameters (significant wave height (Hs), mean wave period (Tp) and direction (θm)) are evaluated relative to ERA-Interim historical wave reanalysis datasets over Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BoB) regions of the northern Indian Ocean for a period of 27 years. We identify that the nearshore wave climate of AS is better predicted than the BoB by both GCMs and RCMs. Ensemble GCM simulated Hs in AS has a better correlation with ERA-Interim ( 90%) than in BoB ( 80%), whereas ensemble RCM simulated Hs has a low correlation in both regions ( 50% in AS and 45% in BoB). In AS, ensemble GCM simulated Tp has better predictability ( 80%) compared to ensemble RCM ( 65%). However, neither GCM nor RCM could satisfactorily predict Tp in nearshore BoB. Wave direction is poorly simulated by GCMs and RCMs in both AS and BoB, with correlation around 50% with GCMs and 60% with RCMs wind derived simulations. However, upon comparing individual RCMs with their parent GCMs, it is found that few of the RCMs predict wave properties better than their parent GCMs. It may be concluded that there is no consistent added value by RCMs over GCMs forced wind-wave climate over northern Indian Ocean. We also identify that there is little to no significance of choosing a finer resolution GCM ( 1.4°) over a coarse GCM ( 2.8°) in improving skill of GCM forced dynamical wave simulations.

Understanding Mesoscale Land-Atmosphere Interactions in Arctic Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, X.; Wang, S.; Nachamkin, J. E.

2017-12-01

Land-atmosphere interactions in Arctic region are examined using the U.S. Navy Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS©*) with the Noah Land Surface Model (LSM). Initial land surface variables in COAMPS are interpolated from the real-time NASA Land Information System (LIS). The model simulations are configured for three nest grids with 27-9-3 km horizontal resolutions. The simulation period is set for October 2015 with 12-h data assimilation update cycle and 24-h integration length. The results are compared with those simulated without using LSM and evaluated with observations from ONR Sea State R/V Sikuliaq cruise and the North Slope of Alaska (NSA). There are complex soil and vegetation types over the surface for simulation with LSM, compared to without LSM simulation. The results show substantial differences in surface heat fluxes between bulk surface scheme and LSM, which may have an important impact on the sea ice evolution over the Arctic region. Evaluations from station data show surface air temperature and relative humidity have smaller biases for simulation using LSM. Diurnal variation of land surface temperature, which is necessary for physical processes of land-atmosphere, is also better captured than without LSM.

Traffic simulation in regional modeling : application to interstate infrastructure near the Toledo sea port.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-06-01

A small team of university-based transportation system experts and simulation experts has been : assembled to develop, test, and apply an approach to assessing road infrastructure capacity using : micro traffic simulation supported by publically avai...

Shallow groundwater in the Matanuska-Susitna Valley, Alaska—Conceptualization and simulation of flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kikuchi, Colin P.

2013-01-01

The Matanuska-Susitna Valley is in the Upper Cook Inlet Basin and is currently undergoing rapid population growth outside of municipal water and sewer service areas. In response to concerns about the effects of increasing water use on future groundwater availability, a study was initiated between the Alaska Department of Natural Resources and the U.S. Geological Survey. The goals of the study were (1) to compile existing data and collect new data to support hydrogeologic conceptualization of the study area, and (2) to develop a groundwater flow model to simulate flow dynamics important at the regional scale. The purpose of the groundwater flow model is to provide a scientific framework for analysis of regional-scale groundwater availability. To address the first study goal, subsurface lithologic data were compiled into a database and were used to construct a regional hydrogeologic framework model describing the extent and thickness of hydrogeologic units in the Matanuska-Susitna Valley. The hydrogeologic framework model synthesizes existing maps of surficial geology and conceptual geochronologies developed in the study area with the distribution of lithologies encountered in hundreds of boreholes. The geologic modeling package Geological Surveying and Investigation in Three Dimensions (GSI3D) was used to construct the hydrogeologic framework model. In addition to characterizing the hydrogeologic framework, major groundwater-budget components were quantified using several different techniques. A land-surface model known as the Deep Percolation Model was used to estimate in-place groundwater recharge across the study area. This model incorporates data on topography, soils, vegetation, and climate. Model-simulated surface runoff was consistent with observed streamflow at U.S. Geological Survey streamgages. Groundwater withdrawals were estimated on the basis of records from major water suppliers during 2004-2010. Fluxes between groundwater and surface water were estimated during field investigations on several small streams. Regional groundwater flow patterns were characterized by synthesizing previous water-table maps with a synoptic water-level measurement conducted during 2009. Time-series water-level data were collected at groundwater and lake monitoring stations over the study period (2009–present). Comparison of historical groundwater-level records with time-series groundwater-level data collected during this study showed similar patterns in groundwater-level fluctuation in response to precipitation. Groundwater-age data collected during previous studies show that water moves quickly through the groundwater system, suggesting that the system responds quickly to changes in climate forcing. Similarly, the groundwater system quickly returns to long-term average conditions following variability due to seasonal or interannual changes in precipitation. These analyses indicate that the groundwater system is in a state of dynamic equilibrium, characterized by water-level fluctuation about a constant average state, with no long-term trends in aquifer-system storage. To address the second study goal, a steady-state groundwater flow model was developed to simulate regional groundwater flow patterns. The groundwater flow model was bounded by physically meaningful hydrologic features, and appropriate internal model boundaries were specified on the basis of conceptualization of the groundwater system resulting in a three-layer model. Calibration data included 173 water‑level measurements and 18 measurements of streamflow gains and losses along small streams. Comparison of simulated and observed heads and flows showed that the model accurately simulates important regional characteristics of the groundwater flow system. This model is therefore appropriate for studying regional-scale groundwater availability. Mismatch between model-simulated and observed hydrologic quantities is likely because of the coarse grid size of the model and seasonal transient effects. Next steps towards model refinement include the development of a transient groundwater flow model that is suitable for analysis of seasonal variability in hydraulic heads and flows. In addition, several important groundwater budget components remain poorly quantified—including groundwater outflow to the Matanuska River, Little Susitna River, and Knik Arm.

A detailed numerical simulation of a liquid-propellant rocket engine ground test experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lankford, D. W.; Simmons, M. A.; Heikkinen, B. D.

1992-07-01

A computational simulation of a Liquid Rocket Engine (LRE) ground test experiment was performed using two modeling approaches. The results of the models were compared with selected data to assess the validity of state-of-the-art computational tools for predicting the flowfield and radiative transfer in complex flow environments. The data used for comparison consisted of in-band station radiation measurements obtained in the near-field portion of the plume exhaust. The test article was a subscale LRE with an afterbody, resulting in a large base region. The flight conditions were such that afterburning regions were observed in the plume flowfield. A conventional standard modeling approach underpredicted the extent of afterburning and the associated radiation levels. These results were attributed to the absence of the base flow region which is not accounted for in this model. To assess the effects of the base region a Navier-Stokes model was applied. The results of this calculation indicate that the base recirculation effects are dominant features in the immediate expansion region and resulted in a much improved comparison. However, the downstream in-band station radiation data remained underpredicted by this model.

Estimation of effective brain connectivity with dual Kalman filter and EEG source localization methods.

PubMed

Rajabioun, Mehdi; Nasrabadi, Ali Motie; Shamsollahi, Mohammad Bagher

2017-09-01

Effective connectivity is one of the most important considerations in brain functional mapping via EEG. It demonstrates the effects of a particular active brain region on others. In this paper, a new method is proposed which is based on dual Kalman filter. In this method, firstly by using a brain active localization method (standardized low resolution brain electromagnetic tomography) and applying it to EEG signal, active regions are extracted, and appropriate time model (multivariate autoregressive model) is fitted to extracted brain active sources for evaluating the activity and time dependence between sources. Then, dual Kalman filter is used to estimate model parameters or effective connectivity between active regions. The advantage of this method is the estimation of different brain parts activity simultaneously with the calculation of effective connectivity between active regions. By combining dual Kalman filter with brain source localization methods, in addition to the connectivity estimation between parts, source activity is updated during the time. The proposed method performance has been evaluated firstly by applying it to simulated EEG signals with interacting connectivity simulation between active parts. Noisy simulated signals with different signal to noise ratios are used for evaluating method sensitivity to noise and comparing proposed method performance with other methods. Then the method is applied to real signals and the estimation error during a sweeping window is calculated. By comparing proposed method results in different simulation (simulated and real signals), proposed method gives acceptable results with least mean square error in noisy or real conditions.

High-resolution dust modelling over complex terrains in West Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basart, S.; Vendrell, L.; Baldasano, J. M.

2016-12-01

The present work demonstrates the impact of model resolution in dust propagation in a complex terrain region such as West Asia. For this purpose, two simulations using the NMMB/BSC-Dust model are performed and analysed, one with a high horizontal resolution (at 0.03° × 0.03°) and one with a lower horizontal resolution (at 0.33° × 0.33°). Both model experiments cover two intense dust storms that occurred on 17-20 March 2012 as a consequence of strong northwesterly Shamal winds that spanned over thousands of kilometres in West Asia. The comparison with ground-based (surface weather stations and sunphotometers) and satellite aerosol observations (Aqua/MODIS and MSG/SEVIRI) shows that despite differences in the magnitude of the simulated dust concentrations, the model is able to reproduce these two dust outbreaks. Differences between both simulations on the dust spread rise on regional dust transport areas in south-western Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Oman. The complex orography in south-western Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Oman (with peaks higher than 3000 m) has an impact on the transported dust concentration fields over mountain regions. Differences between both model configurations are mainly associated to the channelization of the dust flow through valleys and the differences in the modelled altitude of the mountains that alters the meteorology and blocks the dust fronts limiting the dust transport. These results demonstrate how the dust prediction in the vicinity of complex terrains improves using high-horizontal resolution simulations.

Summary of hydrologic modeling for the Delaware River Basin using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williamson, Tanja N.; Lant, Jeremiah G.; Claggett, Peter; Nystrom, Elizabeth A.; Milly, Paul C.D.; Nelson, Hugh L.; Hoffman, Scott A.; Colarullo, Susan J.; Fischer, Jeffrey M.

2015-11-18

The Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) is a decision support system for the nontidal part of the Delaware River Basin that provides a consistent and objective method of simulating streamflow under historical, forecasted, and managed conditions. In order to quantify the uncertainty associated with these simulations, however, streamflow and the associated hydroclimatic variables of potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and snow accumulation and snowmelt must be simulated and compared to long-term, daily observations from sites. This report details model development and optimization, statistical evaluation of simulations for 57 basins ranging from 2 to 930 km2 and 11.0 to 99.5 percent forested cover, and how this statistical evaluation of daily streamflow relates to simulating environmental changes and management decisions that are best examined at monthly time steps normalized over multiple decades. The decision support system provides a database of historical spatial and climatic data for simulating streamflow for 2001–11, in addition to land-cover and general circulation model forecasts that focus on 2030 and 2060. WATER integrates geospatial sampling of landscape characteristics, including topographic and soil properties, with a regionally calibrated hillslope-hydrology model, an impervious-surface model, and hydroclimatic models that were parameterized by using three hydrologic response units: forested, agricultural, and developed land cover. This integration enables the regional hydrologic modeling approach used in WATER without requiring site-specific optimization or those stationary conditions inferred when using a statistical model.

Simulating the effects of the southern pine beetle on regional dynamics 60 years into the future

Treesearch

Jennifer K. Costanza; Jiri Hulcr; Frank H. Koch; Todd Earnhardt; Alexa J. McKerrow; Rob R. Dunn; Jaime A. Collazo

2012-01-01

We developed a spatially explicit model that simulated future southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis, SPB) dynamics and pine forest management for a real landscape over 60 years to inform regional forest management. The SPB has a considerable effect on forest dynamics in the Southeastern United States, especially in loblolly pine (...

Simulation of the West African monsoon onset using the HadGEM3-RA regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diallo, Ismaïla; Bain, Caroline L.; Gaye, Amadou T.; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; Niang, Coumba; Dieng, Mame D. B.; Graham, Richard

2014-08-01

The performance of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) in simulating the West African monsoon (WAM) is investigated. We focus on performance for monsoon onset timing and for rainfall totals over the June-July-August (JJA) season and on the model's representation of the underlying dynamical processes. Experiments are driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis and follow the CORDEX experimental protocol. Simulations with the HadGEM3 global model, which shares a common physical formulation with HadGEM3-RA, are used to gain insight into the causes of HadGEM3-RA simulation errors. It is found that HadGEM3-RA simulations of monsoon onset timing are realistic, with an error in mean onset date of two pentads. However, the model has a dry bias over the Sahel during JJA of 15-20 %. Analysis suggests that this is related to errors in the positioning of the Saharan heat low, which is too far south in HadGEM3-RA and associated with an insufficient northward reach of the south-westerly low-level monsoon flow and weaker moisture convergence over the Sahel. Despite these biases HadGEM3-RA's representation of the general rainfall distribution during the WAM appears superior to that of ERA-Interim when using Global Precipitation Climatology Project or Tropical Rain Measurement Mission data as reference. This suggests that the associated dynamical features seen in HadGEM3-RA can complement the physical picture available from ERA-Interim. This approach is supported by the fact that the global HadGEM3 model generates realistic simulations of the WAM without the benefit of pseudo-observational forcing at the lateral boundaries; suggesting that the physical formulation shared with HadGEM3-RA, is able to represent the driving processes. HadGEM3-RA simulations confirm previous findings that the main rainfall peak near 10°N during June-August is maintained by a region of mid-tropospheric ascent located, latitudinally, between the cores of the African Easterly Jet and Tropical Easterly Jet that intensifies around the time of onset. This region of ascent is weaker and located further south near 5°N in the driving ERA-Interim reanalysis, for reasons that may be related to the coarser resolution or the physics of the underlying model, and this is consistent with a less realistic latitudinal rainfall profile than found in the HadGEM3-RA simulations.

Global variability of cloud condensation nuclei concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makkonen, Risto; Krüger, Olaf

2017-04-01

Atmospheric aerosols can influence cloud optical and dynamical processes by acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Globally, these indirect aerosol effects are significant to the radiative budget as well as a source of high uncertainty in anthropogenic radiative forcing. While historically many global climate models have fixed CCN concentrations to a certain level, most state-of-the-art models calculate aerosol-cloud interactions with sophisticated methodologies based on interactively simulated aerosol size distributions. However, due to scarcity of atmospheric observations simulated global CCN concentrations remain poorly constrained. Here we assess global CCN variability with a climate model, and attribute potential trends during 2000-2010 to changes in emissions and meteorological fields. Here we have used ECHAM5.5-HAM2 with model M7 microphysical aerosol model. The model has been upgraded with a secondary organic aerosol (SOA) scheme including ELVOCs. Dust and sea salt emissions are calculated online, based on wind speed and hydrology. Each experiment is 11 years, analysed after a 6-month spin-up period. The MODIS CCN product (Terra platform) is used to evaluate model performance throughout 2000-2010. While optical remote observation of CCN column includes several deficiencies, the products serves as a proxy for changes during the simulation period. In our analysis we utilize the observed and simulated vertical column integrated CCN concentration, and limit our analysis only over marine regions. Simulated annual CCN column densities reach 2ṡ108 cm-2 near strong source regions in central Africa, Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and China sea. The spatial concentration gradient in CCN(0.2%) is steep, and column densities drop to <50% a few hundred kilometers away from the coasts. While the spatial distribution of CCN at 0.2% supersaturation is closer to that of MODIS proxy, as opposed to 1.0% supersaturation, the overall column integrated CCN are too low. Still, we can compare the relative response of CCN to emission and meteorological variability. Most evident pattern of high temporal correlation is found over North Atlantic ocean, extending throughout Europe and up to Gulf of Mexico. All of these regions show a generally decreasing trend throughout the decade in control simulations and MODIS CCN, and the simulations including the emission trends clearly improve the simulations with climatological emissions. In regions where the observed intra-annual cycle correlates well with sea-spray emissions, the long-term annual correlation usually remains poor. This could indicate that the model is unable to capture the natural variability in marine aerosol emissions.

Wildland fire probabilities estimated from weather model-deduced monthly mean fire danger indices

Treesearch

Haiganoush K. Preisler; Shyh-Chin Chen; Francis Fujioka; John W. Benoit; Anthony L. Westerling

2008-01-01

The National Fire Danger Rating System indices deduced from a regional simulation weather model were used to estimate probabilities and numbers of large fire events on monthly and 1-degree grid scales. The weather model simulations and forecasts are ongoing experimental products from the Experimental Climate Prediction Center at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography...

Wind power forecasting for a real onshore wind farm on complex terrain using WRF high resolution simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ángel Prósper Fernández, Miguel; Casal, Carlos Otero; Canoura Fernández, Felipe; Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo

2017-04-01

Regional meteorological models are becoming a generalized tool for forecasting wind resource, due to their capacity to simulate local flow dynamics impacting wind farm production. This study focuses on the production forecast and validation of a real onshore wind farm using high horizontal and vertical resolution WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model simulations. The wind farm is located in Galicia, in the northwest of Spain, in a complex terrain region with high wind resource. Utilizing the Fitch scheme, specific for wind farms, a period of one year is simulated with a daily operational forecasting set-up. Power and wind predictions are obtained and compared with real data provided by the management company. Results show that WRF is able to yield good wind power operational predictions for this kind of wind farms, due to a good representation of the planetary boundary layer behaviour of the region and the good performance of the Fitch scheme under these conditions.

Zooming in on cirrus with the Canadian Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stefanof, C.; Stefanof, A.; Beaulne, A.; Munoz Alpizar, R.; Szyrmer, W.; Blanchet, J.

2004-05-01

The Canadian Regional Climate Model plus a microphysical scheme: two-moments microphysics with three hydrometeor categories (cloud liquid water, pristine ice crystals and larger precipitation crystals) is used to test the simulation in forecast mode using ECMWF data at 0.4 X 0.4 degree. We are zooming in on cirrus at higher resolutions (9, 1.8, 0.36 km). We are currently using the data set measured in APEX-E3, measurements of radar, lidar, passive instruments and interpreted microphysics for some flights (G-II, C404, B200). The radar and lidar data are available for high level cirrus. The south west of Japon is the flight region. The dates are March 20, March 27 and April 2, 2003. We first focus on the March 27 frontal system. We did a rigorous synoptical analysis for the cases. The cirrus at 360 m resolution are simulated. The cloud structure and some similarities between model simulation and observations will be presented.

National forest timber supply and stumpage markets in the western United States.

Treesearch

Darius M. Adams; Richard W. Haynes

1991-01-01

This paper presents an aggregate regional model of the National Forest timber supply process and the interaction of National Forest and non-National Forest supply in determining regional stumpage prices and harvest volumes. Model simulations track actual behavior in the Douglas-fir regional stumpage market with reasonable accuracy; projections for the next two decades...

CORDEX Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutowski, William; Giorgi, Filippo; Lake, Irene

2017-04-01

The Science Advisory Team for the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) has developed a baseline framework of specified regions, resolutions and simulation periods intended to provide a foundation for ongoing regional CORDEX activities: the CORDEX Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluation, or CORDEX-CORE. CORDEX-CORE was conceived in part to be responsive to IPCC needs for coordinated simulations that could provide regional climate downscaling (RCD) that yields fine-scale climate information beyond that resolved by GCMs. For each CORDEX region, a matrix of GCM-RCD experiments is designed based on the need to cover as much as possible different dimensions of the uncertainty space (e.g., different emissions and land-use scenarios, GCMs, RCD models and techniques). An appropriate set of driving GCMs can allow a program of simulations that efficiently addresses key scientific issues within CORDEX, while facilitating comparison and transfer of results and lessons learned across different regions. The CORDEX-CORE program seeks to provide, as much as possible, homogeneity across domains, so it is envisioned that a standard set of regional climate models (RCMs) and empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) methods will downscale a standard set of GCMs over all or at least most CORDEX domains for a minimum set of scenarios (high and low end). The focus is on historical climate simulations for the 20th century and projections for 21st century, implying that data would be needed minimally for the period 1950-2100 (but ideally 1900-2100). This foundational ensemble can be regionally enriched with further contributions (additional GCM-RCD pairs) by individual groups over their selected domains of interest. The RCM model resolution for these core experiments will be in the range of 10-20 km, a resolution that has been shown to provide substantial added value for a variety of climate variables and that represents a significant forward step compared in the CORDEX program. This presentation presents the vision and structure of CORDEX-CORE while also soliciting discussion on plans for implementing the program.

Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model.

PubMed

Larsen, Morten A D; Christensen, Jens H; Drews, Martin; Butts, Michael B; Refsgaard, Jens C

2016-03-10

The ability to simulate regional precipitation realistically by climate models is essential to understand and adapt to climate change. Due to the complexity of associated processes, particularly at unresolved temporal and spatial scales this continues to be a major challenge. As a result, climate simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface, plant cover and the atmosphere, enables a realistic representation of local precipitation. Substantial improvements in simulated precipitation dynamics on seasonal and longer time scales is seen for a simulation period of six years and can be attributed to a more complete treatment of hydrological sub-surface processes including groundwater and moisture feedback. A high degree of local influence on the atmosphere suggests that coupled climate-hydrology models have a potential for improving climate projections and the results further indicate a diminished need for bias correction in climate-hydrology impact studies.

Strong control of Southern Ocean cloud reflectivity by ice-nucleating particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergara-Temprado, Jesús; Miltenberger, Annette K.; Furtado, Kalli; Grosvenor, Daniel P.; Shipway, Ben J.; Hill, Adrian A.; Wilkinson, Jonathan M.; Field, Paul R.; Murray, Benjamin J.; Carslaw, Ken S.

2018-03-01

Large biases in climate model simulations of cloud radiative properties over the Southern Ocean cause large errors in modeled sea surface temperatures, atmospheric circulation, and climate sensitivity. Here, we combine cloud-resolving model simulations with estimates of the concentration of ice-nucleating particles in this region to show that our simulated Southern Ocean clouds reflect far more radiation than predicted by global models, in agreement with satellite observations. Specifically, we show that the clouds that are most sensitive to the concentration of ice-nucleating particles are low-level mixed-phase clouds in the cold sectors of extratropical cyclones, which have previously been identified as a main contributor to the Southern Ocean radiation bias. The very low ice-nucleating particle concentrations that prevail over the Southern Ocean strongly suppress cloud droplet freezing, reduce precipitation, and enhance cloud reflectivity. The results help explain why a strong radiation bias occurs mainly in this remote region away from major sources of ice-nucleating particles. The results present a substantial challenge to climate models to be able to simulate realistic ice-nucleating particle concentrations and their effects under specific meteorological conditions.

Simulated cold bias being improved by using MODIS time-varying albedo in the Tibetan Plateau in WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, X.; Lyu, S.; Zhang, T.; Zhao, L.; Li, Z.; Han, B.; Li, S.; Ma, D.; Chen, H.; Ao, Y.; Luo, S.; Shen, Y.; Guo, J.; Wen, L.

2018-04-01

Systematic cold biases exist in the simulation for 2 m air temperature in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) when using regional climate models and global atmospheric general circulation models. We updated the albedo in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model lower boundary condition using the Global LAnd Surface Satellite Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer albedo products and demonstrated evident improvement for cold temperature biases in the TP. It is the large overestimation of albedo in winter and spring in the WRF model that resulted in the large cold temperature biases. The overestimated albedo was caused by the simulated precipitation biases and over-parameterization of snow albedo. Furthermore, light-absorbing aerosols can result in a large reduction of albedo in snow and ice cover. The results suggest the necessity of developing snow albedo parameterization using observations in the TP, where snow cover and melting are very different from other low-elevation regions, and the influence of aerosols should be considered as well. In addition to defining snow albedo, our results show an urgent call for improving precipitation simulation in the TP.

Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model

PubMed Central

Larsen, Morten A. D.; Christensen, Jens H.; Drews, Martin; Butts, Michael B.; Refsgaard, Jens C.

2016-01-01

The ability to simulate regional precipitation realistically by climate models is essential to understand and adapt to climate change. Due to the complexity of associated processes, particularly at unresolved temporal and spatial scales this continues to be a major challenge. As a result, climate simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface, plant cover and the atmosphere, enables a realistic representation of local precipitation. Substantial improvements in simulated precipitation dynamics on seasonal and longer time scales is seen for a simulation period of six years and can be attributed to a more complete treatment of hydrological sub-surface processes including groundwater and moisture feedback. A high degree of local influence on the atmosphere suggests that coupled climate-hydrology models have a potential for improving climate projections and the results further indicate a diminished need for bias correction in climate-hydrology impact studies. PMID:26960564

Strong control of Southern Ocean cloud reflectivity by ice-nucleating particles

PubMed Central

Miltenberger, Annette K.; Furtado, Kalli; Grosvenor, Daniel P.; Shipway, Ben J.; Hill, Adrian A.; Wilkinson, Jonathan M.; Field, Paul R.

2018-01-01

Large biases in climate model simulations of cloud radiative properties over the Southern Ocean cause large errors in modeled sea surface temperatures, atmospheric circulation, and climate sensitivity. Here, we combine cloud-resolving model simulations with estimates of the concentration of ice-nucleating particles in this region to show that our simulated Southern Ocean clouds reflect far more radiation than predicted by global models, in agreement with satellite observations. Specifically, we show that the clouds that are most sensitive to the concentration of ice-nucleating particles are low-level mixed-phase clouds in the cold sectors of extratropical cyclones, which have previously been identified as a main contributor to the Southern Ocean radiation bias. The very low ice-nucleating particle concentrations that prevail over the Southern Ocean strongly suppress cloud droplet freezing, reduce precipitation, and enhance cloud reflectivity. The results help explain why a strong radiation bias occurs mainly in this remote region away from major sources of ice-nucleating particles. The results present a substantial challenge to climate models to be able to simulate realistic ice-nucleating particle concentrations and their effects under specific meteorological conditions. PMID:29490918

North-western Mediterranean sea-breeze circulation in a regional climate system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drobinski, Philippe; Bastin, Sophie; Arsouze, Thomas; Béranger, Karine; Flaounas, Emmanouil; Stéfanon, Marc

2017-04-01

In the Mediterranean basin, moisture transport can occur over large distance from remote regions by the synoptic circulation or more locally by sea breezes, driven by land-sea thermal contrast. Sea breezes play an important role in inland transport of moisture especially between late spring and early fall. In order to explicitly represent the two-way interactions at the atmosphere-ocean interface in the Mediterranean region and quantify the role of air-sea feedbacks on regional meteorology and climate, simulations at 20 km resolution performed with WRF regional climate model (RCM) and MORCE atmosphere-ocean regional climate model (AORCM) coupling WRF and NEMO-MED12 in the frame of HyMeX/MED-CORDEX are compared. One result of this study is that these simulations reproduce remarkably well the intensity, direction and inland penetration of the sea breeze and even the existence of the shallow sea breeze despite the overestimate of temperature over land in both simulations. The coupled simulation provides a more realistic representation of the evolution of the SST field at fine scale than the atmosphere-only one. Temperature and moisture anomalies are created in direct response to the SST anomaly and are advected by the sea breeze over land. However, the SST anomalies are not of sufficient magnitude to affect the large-scale sea-breeze circulation. The temperature anomalies are quickly damped by strong surface heating over land, whereas the water vapor mixing ratio anomalies are transported further inland. The inland limit of significance is imposed by the vertical dilution in a deeper continental boundary-layer.

Simulation of inclined air showers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorofeev, Alexei V.

The purpose of this research is simulation of Horizontal Air Showers (HAS) - Extensive Air Showers (EAS), where the cascade of particles is initiated by a primary particle with Ultra High Energy, entering the atmosphere of the Earth at zenith angles more than 70°. Particles from these HAS are detected at the ground level by the Surface Detector part of the Auger Observatory. Existing simulation models (most of them are Monte-Carlo) have limitations which come from the fact that one can't follow each and every particle and interaction in the EAS. The proposed model is a semi-analytic solution to the cascade equations, which incorporates probability functions for the most advanced hadronic interaction models available today--UrQMD for the low-energy region and NEXUS for the high energy region.

Dust Emissions, Transport, and Deposition Simulated with the NASA Finite-Volume General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colarco, Peter; daSilva, Arlindo; Ginoux, Paul; Chin, Mian; Lin, S.-J.

2003-01-01

Mineral dust aerosols have radiative impacts on Earth's atmosphere, have been implicated in local and regional air quality issues, and have been identified as vectors for transporting disease pathogens and bringing mineral nutrients to terrestrial and oceanic ecosystems. We present for the first time dust simulations using online transport and meteorological analysis in the NASA Finite-Volume General Circulation Model (FVGCM). Our dust formulation follows the formulation in the offline Georgia Institute of Technology-Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport Model (GOCART) using a topographical source for dust emissions. We compare results of the FVGCM simulations with GOCART, as well as with in situ and remotely sensed observations. Additionally, we estimate budgets of dust emission and transport into various regions.

Numerical Simulation of the 9-10 June 1972 Black Hills Storm Using CSU RAMS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nair, U. S.; Hjelmfelt, Mark R.; Pielke, Roger A., Sr.

1997-01-01

Strong easterly flow of low-level moist air over the eastern slopes of the Black Hills on 9-10 June 1972 generated a storm system that produced a flash flood, devastating the area. Based on observations from this storm event, and also from the similar Big Thompson 1976 storm event, conceptual models have been developed to explain the unusually high precipitation efficiency. In this study, the Black Hills storm is simulated using the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. Simulations with homogeneous and inhomogeneous initializations and different grid structures are presented. The conceptual models of storm structure proposed by previous studies are examined in light of the present simulations. Both homogeneous and inhomogeneous initialization results capture the intense nature of the storm, but the inhomogeneous simulation produced a precipitation pattern closer to the observed pattern. The simulations point to stationary tilted updrafts, with precipitation falling out to the rear as the preferred storm structure. Experiments with different grid structures point to the importance of removing the lateral boundaries far from the region of activity. Overall, simulation performance in capturing the observed behavior of the storm system was enhanced by use of inhomogeneous initialization.

Simulation of windblown dust transport from a mine tailings impoundment using a computational fluid dynamics model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stovern, Michael; Felix, Omar; Csavina, Janae; Rine, Kyle P.; Russell, MacKenzie R.; Jones, Robert M.; King, Matt; Betterton, Eric A.; Sáez, A. Eduardo

2014-09-01

Mining operations are potential sources of airborne particulate metal and metalloid contaminants through both direct smelter emissions and wind erosion of mine tailings. The warmer, drier conditions predicted for the Southwestern US by climate models may make contaminated atmospheric dust and aerosols increasingly important, due to potential deleterious effects on human health and ecology. Dust emissions and dispersion of dust and aerosol from the Iron King Mine tailings in Dewey-Humboldt, Arizona, a Superfund site, are currently being investigated through in situ field measurements and computational fluid dynamics modeling. These tailings are heavily contaminated with lead and arsenic. Using a computational fluid dynamics model, we model dust transport from the mine tailings to the surrounding region. The model includes gaseous plume dispersion to simulate the transport of the fine aerosols, while individual particle transport is used to track the trajectories of larger particles and to monitor their deposition locations. In order to improve the accuracy of the dust transport simulations, both regional topographical features and local weather patterns have been incorporated into the model simulations. Results show that local topography and wind velocity profiles are the major factors that control deposition.